Photography and nuclear catastrophe. The visual representation of the occurrences in Hiroshima/Nagasaki and Chernobyl

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Buerkner, Daniel

2014-01-01

The dissertation project seeks to analyse the photographic positions that deal with the atomic bomb attacks on Hiroshima and Nagasaki and the accident of the nuclear power plant in Chernobyl. This focus includes press photographs of the events as well as artistic, documentary and touristic images that take an approach towards the disasters often years after and hereby form iconographic or material references to the events. The study reveals central strategies for photographic images of atomic catastrophes, be they of military or civil nature. It is the inability to visualize non-visible nuclear rays or the complexity of processes on an atomic level that has turned out to be crucial. This incapacity of making images, a paradigm of invisibility, substantially coins the cultural role of the events. The question of how a society deals with these abstract potentials of nuclear technology has turned out to be always anew of high relevance in regard to ecological, social and technological policies of images.

WHO's new recommendations about iodine prophylaxis at nuclear catastrophes

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Paile, Wendla

1999-01-01

WHO has prepared new advice about using stable iodine as protection against emission of radioactive iodine from nuclear catastrophes. The experiences from Chernobyl show that the risk for thyroid gland cancer after emission of radio-iodine is significant. The risk of serious side effects of stable iodine as single dose is stated to be minimal. Stable iodine is a safe, effective remedy for protecting the thyroid gland against radioactive iodine. It is recommended to adjust different criteria for iodine prophylaxis for new-born, children, young people and adults older than 40 years. For children of the age up to 18 years iodine prophylaxis should be considered at 10 mGy thyroid gland doses, and for young adults at 100 mGy. For adults of 40 years or more the cancer risk of radioactive iodine is very low and iodine prophylaxis is unnecessary provided that the expected does not exceed 5 Gy. The new information about risk and advantage must be considered in planning for distribution and storage of stable iodine. WHO also commends that everybody has the possibility to buy it in a pharmacy. (EHS)

Nuclear catastrophe in Japan. Health consequences resulting from Fukushima; Atomkatastrophe in Japan. Gesundheitliche Folgen von Fukushima

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Paulitz, Henrik; Eisenberg, Winfrid; Thiel, Reinhold

2013-03-06

On 11 March 2011, a nuclear catastrophe occurred at the Fukushima Dai-ichi nuclear power plant in Japan in the wake of an earthquake and due to serious safety deficiencies. This resulted in a massive and prolonged release of radioactive fission and decay products. Approximately 20% of the radioactive substances released into the atmosphere have led to the contamination of the landmass of Japan with 17,000 becquerels per square meter of cesium-137 and a comparable quantity of cesium-134. The initial health consequences of the nuclear catastrophe are already now, after only two years, scientifically verifiable. Similar to the case of Chernobyl, a decline in the birth rate was documented nine months after the nuclear catastrophe. Throughout Japan, the total drop in number of births in December 2011 was 4362, with the Fukushima Prefecture registering a decline of 209 births. Japan also experienced a rise in infant mortality, with 75 more children dying in their first year of life than expected statistically. In the Fukushima Prefecture alone, some 55,592 children were diagnosed with thyroid gland nodules or cysts. In contrast to cysts and nodules found in adults, these findings in children must be classified as precancerous. There were also the first documented cases in Fukushima of thyroid cancer in children. The present document undertakes three assessments of the expected incidence of cancer resulting from external exposure to radiation. These are based on publications in scientific journals on soil contamination in 47 prefectures in Japan, the average total soil contamination, and, in the third case, on local dose rate measurements in the fall of 2012. Taking into consideration the shielding effect of buildings, the medical organization IPPNW has calculated the collective lifetime doses for individuals at 94,749 manSv, 206,516 manSv, and 118,171 manSv, respectively. In accordance with the risk factors set by the European Committee on Radiation Risk (ECRR) for death

Inadequacies of Belgium nuclear emergency plans: lessons from the Fukushima catastrophe have not been learned

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Boilley, David; Josset, Mylene

2015-01-01

After having outlined that some Belgium regional authorities made some statements showing that they did not learn lessons neither from the Chernobyl catastrophe, nor from the Fukushima accident, this report aims at examining whether Belgium is well prepared to face a severe nuclear accident occurring within its borders or in neighbouring countries, whether all hypotheses have actually been taken into account, and whether existing emergency plans are realistic. After a presentation of Belgium's situation regarding nuclear plants (Belgium plants and neighbouring French plants), the report presents the content and organisation of the nuclear emergency plan for the Belgium territory at the national, provincial and municipal levels. While outlining inadequacies and weaknesses of the Belgium plan regarding the addressed issues, it discusses the main lessons learned from the Fukushima accident in terms of emergency planning areas, of population sheltering, of iodine-based prophylaxis, of population evacuation, of food supply, of tools (measurement instruments) and human resources, and of public information. In the next parts, the report addresses and discusses trans-border issues, and the commitment of stakeholders

Catastrophes control problem

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Velichenko, V.V.

1994-01-01

The problem of catastrophe control is discussed. Catastrophe control aims to withdraw responsible engineering constructions out of the catastrophe. The mathematical framework of catastrophes control systems is constructed. It determines the principles of systems filling by the concrete physical contents and, simultaneously, permits to employ modern control methods for the synthesis of optimal withdrawal strategy for protected objects

Analysis of the reliability of quality assurance of welded nuclear pressure vessels with regard to catastrophic failure

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Ostberg, G [Lund Institute of Technology, Dept. of Materials Engineering (Sweden); Klingenstierna, B [FTL, Military Electronics Laboratory, National Defence Research Institute, Stockholm (Sweden); Sjoberg, L [Goteborg Univ., Dept. of Psychology (Sweden)

1976-07-01

The project is described as an analysis of the reliability of quality assurance of welded nuclear pressure vessels with regard to catastrophic failure. Its scope extends both beyond previous statistical evaluations of the risk of catastrophic failure, beyond previous studies of human malfunction, and beyond current studies of probabilistic fracture mechanics. The latter deal only with 'normal' data and 'normal' processes and procedures according to established rules and regulations, where as the present study concerns deficiencies or more or less complete fallacies of normal procedures and processes. Hopefully such events will prove to be rare enough to be characterized as 'unique'; this, in turn, means that the result of the investigation is not a new statistical figure but rather a survey of types and frequencies of errors and error-producing conditions. The emphasis is on the main pressure vessel; related information on the primary circuit is included, only when this can be done without excessive effort or costs. The avenues of approach in terms of technical-academic disciplines are reliability techniques and the psychology of analysis work and control processes.

Children with atopic dermatitis may have unacknowledged contact allergies contributing to their skin symptoms

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Simonsen, A B; Johansen, J D; Deleuran, M

2017-01-01

BACKGROUND: Whether children with atopic dermatitis have an altered risk of contact allergy than children without atopic dermatitis is frequently debated and studies have been conflicting. Theoretically, the impaired skin barrier in AD facilitates the penetration of potential allergens and several...... authors have highlighted the risk of underestimating and overlooking contact allergy in children with atopic dermatitis. OBJECTIVE: To determine the prevalence of contact allergy in Danish children with atopic dermatitis and explore the problem of unacknowledged allergies maintaining or aggravating...... one contact allergy that was relevant to the current skin symptoms. The risk of contact allergy was significantly correlated to the severity of atopic dermatitis. Metals and components of topical skin care products were the most frequent sensitizers. CONCLUSION: Patch testing is relevant...

On sociological catastrophe analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Clausen, L.

1974-01-01

The present paper deals with standard terms of sociological catastrophe theory hitherto existing, collective behaviour during the catastrophe, and consequences for the empiric catastrophe sociology. (RW) [de

Non-catastrophic and catastrophic fractures in racing Thoroughbreds at the Hong Kong Jockey Club.

Science.gov (United States)

Sun, T C; Riggs, C M; Cogger, N; Wright, J; Al-Alawneh, J I

2018-04-19

Reports of fractures in racehorses have predominantly focused on catastrophic injuries, and there is limited data identifying the location and incidence of fractures that did not result in a fatal outcome. To describe the nature and the incidence of non-catastrophic and catastrophic fractures in Thoroughbreds racing at the Hong Kong Jockey Club (HKJC) over seven racing seasons. Retrospective cohort study. Data of fractures sustained in horses while racing and of race characteristics were extracted from the HKJC Veterinary Management Information System (VMIS) and Racing Information System (RIS) respectively. The fracture event was determined from the first clinical entry for each specific injury. The incidence rates of non-catastrophic and catastrophic fractures were calculated per 1000 racing starts for racetrack, age, racing season, sex and trainer. 179 first fracture events occurred in 64,807 racing starts. The incidence rate of non-catastrophic fractures was 2.2 per 1000 racing starts and of catastrophic fractures was 0.6 per 1000 racing starts. Fractures of the proximal sesamoid bones represented 55% of all catastrophic fractures while the most common non-catastrophic fractures involved the carpus and the first phalanx. Significant associations were detected between the incidence of non-catastrophic fractures and sex, trainer and racing season. The first fracture event was used to calculate the incidence rate in this study and may have resulted in underestimation of the true incidence rate of fractures in this population. However, given the low number of recorded fracture events compared to the size of the study population, this underestimation is likely to be small. There were 3.6 times as many non-catastrophic fractures as catastrophic fractures in Thoroughbreds racing in Hong Kong between 2004 and 2011. Non-catastrophic fractures interfere with race training schedules and may predispose to catastrophic fracture. Future analytical studies on non-catastrophic

Mobilizing Mothers: The Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Catastrophe and Environmental Activism in Japan

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Nicole Freiner

2014-02-01

Full Text Available The citizens’ and environmental movements of the 1960s and 70s hadgreat political success in Japan, culminating in the Special Session of the Diet in1970 that enacted 14 anti-pollution laws. These activist groups fought denials ofresponsibility on the part of industry and unresponsiveness on the part of localgovernments. Women were at the forefront of this type of activism during the 1960sand 70s, and led many of the citizens’ environmental movements during this time.More recently, during the environmental catastrophe caused by the meltdown of theFukushima Daiichi nuclear plant, women and mothers have been vocal protesters.Environmental movements have particular political salience because of the successwomen have achieved in this area both in policy change and also roles in formalpolitics. Women have consistently achieved these successes at the same time as theyperformed their roles as mothers and home managers; these roles have been usedstrategically to mobilize women with great effect, and also were central to the valueswith which the citizens’ movements defined themselves politically.

Seizing Catastrophes

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kublitz, Anja

2013-01-01

to a distant past but takes place in the present. They use the term Nakba not only to refer to the catastrophe of 1948 but also to designate current catastrophes, such as the Danish Muhammad cartoons affair in 2005 and the Israeli invasion of Gaza in 2008. Through an analysis of the 60th commemoration...

Climate catastrophes

Science.gov (United States)

Budyko, Mikhail

1999-05-01

Climate catastrophes, which many times occurred in the geological past, caused the extinction of large or small populations of animals and plants. Changes in the terrestrial and marine biota caused by the catastrophic climate changes undoubtedly resulted in considerable fluctuations in global carbon cycle and atmospheric gas composition. Primarily, carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gas contents were affected. The study of these catastrophes allows a conclusion that climate system is very sensitive to relatively small changes in climate-forcing factors (transparency of the atmosphere, changes in large glaciations, etc.). It is important to take this conclusion into account while estimating the possible consequences of now occurring anthropogenic warming caused by the increase in greenhouse gas concentration in the atmosphere.

Direct catastrophic injury in sports.

Science.gov (United States)

Boden, Barry P

2005-11-01

Catastrophic sports injuries are rare but tragic events. Direct (traumatic) catastrophic injury results from participating in the skills of a sport, such as a collision in football. Football is associated with the greatest number of direct catastrophic injuries for all major team sports in the United States. Pole vaulting, gymnastics, ice hockey, and football have the highest incidence of direct catastrophic injuries for sports in which males participate. In most sports, the rate of catastrophic injury is higher at the collegiate than at the high school level. Cheerleading is associated with the highest number of direct catastrophic injuries for all sports in which females participate. Indirect (nontraumatic) injury is caused by systemic failure as a result of exertion while participating in a sport. Cardiovascular conditions, heat illness, exertional hyponatremia, and dehydration can cause indirect catastrophic injury. Understanding the common mechanisms of injury and prevention strategies for direct catastrophic injuries is critical in caring for athletes.

Application of catastrophe theory to nuclear structure

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Scharff-Goldhaber, G.; Dresden, M.

1979-01-01

Three two-parameter models, one describing an A-body system (the atomic nucleus) and two describing many-body systems (the van der Waals gas and the ferroelectric (perovskite) system) are compared within the framework of catastrophe theory. It is shown that each has a critical point (second-order phase transition) when the two counteracting forces controlling it are in balance; further, each undergoes a first-order phase transition when one of the forces vanishes (the deforming force for the nucleus, the attractive force for the van der Waals gas, and the dielectric constant for the perovskite). Finally, when both parameters are kept constant, a kind of phase transition may occur at a critical angular momentum, critical pressure, and critical electric field. 3 figures, 1 table

The critical catastrophe revisited

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

De Mulatier, Clélia; Rosso, Alberto; Dumonteil, Eric; Zoia, Andrea

2015-01-01

The neutron population in a prototype model of nuclear reactor can be described in terms of a collection of particles confined in a box and undergoing three key random mechanisms: diffusion, reproduction due to fissions, and death due to absorption events. When the reactor is operated at the critical point, and fissions are exactly compensated by absorptions, the whole neutron population might in principle go to extinction because of the wild fluctuations induced by births and deaths. This phenomenon, which has been named critical catastrophe, is nonetheless never observed in practice: feedback mechanisms acting on the total population, such as human intervention, have a stabilizing effect. In this work, we revisit the critical catastrophe by investigating the spatial behaviour of the fluctuations in a confined geometry. When the system is free to evolve, the neutrons may display a wild patchiness (clustering). On the contrary, imposing a population control on the total population acts also against the local fluctuations, and may thus inhibit the spatial clustering. The effectiveness of population control in quenching spatial fluctuations will be shown to depend on the competition between the mixing time of the neutrons (i.e. the average time taken for a particle to explore the finite viable space) and the extinction time

The Ongoing Catastrophe

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kublitz, Anja

2015-01-01

as camps. Based on fieldwork among Palestinians in the Danish camps, this article explores why my interlocutors describe their current lives as a catastrophe. Al-Nakba literally means the catastrophe and, in Palestinian national discourse, it is used to designate the event of 1948, when the Palestinians...

Assessment of effectiveness of geologic isolation systems. Geologic factors in the isolation of nuclear waste: evaluation of long-term geomorphic processes and catastrophic events

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mara, S.J.

1980-03-01

SRI International has projected the rate, duration, and magnitude of geomorphic processes and events in the Southwest and Gulf Coast over the next million years. This information will be used by the Department of Energy's Pacific Northwest Laboratory (PNL) as input to a computer model, which will be used to simulate possible release scenarios and the consequences of the release of nuclear waste from geologic containment. The estimates in this report, although based on best scientific judgment, are subject to considerable uncertainty. An evaluation of the Quaternary history of the two study areas revealed that each had undergone geomorphic change in the last one million years. Catastrophic events were evaluated in order to determine their significance to the simulation model. Given available data, catastrophic floods are not expected to occur in the two study areas. Catastrophic landslides may occur in the Southwest, but because the duration of the event is brief and the amount of material moved is small in comparison to regional denudation, such events need not be included in the simulation model. Ashfalls, however, could result in removal of vegetation from the landscape, thereby causing significant increases in erosion rates. Because the estimates developed during this study may not be applicable to specific sites, general equations were presented as a first step in refining the analysis. These equations identify the general relationships among the important variables and suggest those areas of concern for which further data are required. If the current model indicates that geomorphic processes (taken together with other geologic changes) may ultimately affect the geologic containment of nuclear waste, further research may be necessary to refine this analysis for application to specific sites

Japan's nuclear catastrophe; a shocking calamity

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Shiva, Sonu; Gaur, Madhusudan

2012-01-01

Japan suffered a massive earthquake which was followed by more disastrous tsunami that led to nuclear crises. The Fukushima nuclear plant faced series of explosions and the water cooling system failed. The nuclear reactor is spreading radioactivity in the atmosphere. This has immensely affected the country's economy and the authorities are still struggling to stop the release of radiation from the quake hit nuclear plant. The professors of various universities are tense with regard to dangerous amount of radiation present in the air. The survivors of the calamity are afraid of cancer and other dire illnesses; who have been exposed to Japan's crippled nuclear plant on march 11, 2011. Though the scientists claim that Tokyo is safe from the radiations but the authorities do not have the sufficient data to prove about its safety. There has been much errors and delay in the proper assessment of the crises and the truth may take 5 to 10 years of time to come out, but this would be too late. This paper is an attempt to delve deep into the reasons of this calamity. It intends to suggest some measures that can be helpful in assessing the damage and improvements that can be taken up with regard to location and design of nuclear power plant so that in such situation of emergency the coping becomes easier and damage minimized. (author)

ATR Prohibits Replication Catastrophe by Preventing Global Exhaustion of RPA

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Toledo Lazaro, Luis Ignacio; Altmeyer, Matthias; Rask, Maj-Britt

2013-01-01

origin firing generates an excess of single-stranded DNA that exhausts the nuclear pool of RPA. Partial reduction of RPA accelerated fork breakage, and forced elevation of RPA was sufficient to delay such "replication catastrophe" even in the absence of ATR activity. Conversely, unscheduled origin firing...... induced breakage of stalled forks even in cells with active ATR. Thus, ATR-mediated suppression of dormant origins shields active forks against irreversible breakage via preventing exhaustion of nuclear RPA. This study elucidates how replicating genomes avoid destabilizing DNA damage. Because cancer cells...

Elementary catastrophe theory modelling of Duffing's equation for seismic excitation of nuclear power facilities

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Alesso, H.P.

1979-01-01

Elementary catastrophe theory can provide conceptual insight into some aspects of a variety of problems in dynamics. It is a qualitative tool with some quantitative results. In this paper, it is applied to forced nonlinear vibrations of seismic disturbances, which may be approximated by Duffin's equation. The behavior of such a system fits naturally into ECT modelling, where changes in parameters of the system lead to 'jump' type behavior. The important conclusion is that nonlinear oscillators can exhibit elementary catastrophes, but the design engineer may be able to manipulate characteristics of the system in order to avoid the 'jump' behavior of the response. (Auth.)

Coping with ecological catastrophe: crossing major thresholds

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

John Cairns, Jr.

2004-08-01

Full Text Available The combination of human population growth and resource depletion makes catastrophes highly probable. No long-term solutions to the problems of humankind will be discovered unless sustainable use of the planet is achieved. The essential first step toward this goal is avoiding or coping with global catastrophes that result from crossing major ecological thresholds. Decreasing the number of global catastrophes will reduce the risks associated with destabilizing ecological systems, which could, in turn, destabilize societal systems. Many catastrophes will be local, regional, or national, but even these upheavals will have global consequences. Catastrophes will be the result of unsustainable practices and the misuse of technology. However, avoiding ecological catastrophes will depend on the development of eco-ethics, which is subject to progressive maturation, comments, and criticism. Some illustrative catastrophes have been selected to display some preliminary issues of eco-ethics.

New Mechanism for Explaing LENR and Certain forms of Technological and Natural Catastrophes

Science.gov (United States)

Gareev, Fangil

2008-03-01

We proposed a new mechanism for low energy nuclear reactions (LENR): cooperative resonance processes involving the whole the system - nuclei + atoms + condensed matter can occur at a smaller threshold energies than the corresponding ones on free constituents. The cooperative processes can be induced and enhanced by low energy external fields. The excess heat is the emission of internal energy and transmutations at LENR are the result of a redistribution of internal energy of the whole system. The lack of financial support and ignorance by mainstream physicists has resulted in the LENR field not being accepted. We postulate that LENR can lead to catastrophes, potentially including, the runaway evcnt involving the reactor at the Chernobyl Nuclear Power Plant, the explosion of the twin towers during the 11 September 2001 World Trade Center collapse, in New York, the explosion of transformers in Moscow, catastrophes of submarines, and other phenomena associated with a cooperative resonance synchronization mechanism.

Quantum catastrophe of slow light

OpenAIRE

Leonhardt, Ulf

2001-01-01

Catastrophes are at the heart of many fascinating optical phenomena. The rainbow, for example, is a ray catastrophe where light rays become infinitely intense. The wave nature of light resolves the infinities of ray catastrophes while drawing delicate interference patterns such as the supernumerary arcs of the rainbow. Black holes cause wave singularities. Waves oscillate with infinitely small wave lengths at the event horizon where time stands still. The quantum nature of light avoids this h...

Unacknowledged threats proffered "in a manner of speaking": recognizing workplace bullying as shaming.

Science.gov (United States)

Dzurec, Laura Cox; Kennison, Monica; Albataineh, Raya

2014-07-01

The purpose of this study was to examine workplace bullying victims' perceptions of what they heard their bully counterparts say through their use of prosody. From a sampling frame of 89 manuscripts referenced in the authors' previous studies, we identified a subset (n = 10) that included quotes regarding bullying victims' perceptions of communication experiences with their bully perpetrators. We used hermeneutics and a recursive metasynthesis to interpret quotes embedded in the manuscripts chosen for this study. Two-thirds of language is expressed nonverbally through prosody or "manner of speaking"-rhythm, stress, intonation, and vocabulary choice. We found that as bullies communicated with their intended victims over time, they used prosody across subtle, linked communications, or boldly and openly in public venues, to establish a context-embedded, one-way communication process of "doublespeak." Bullies' confusing prosodic communication processes served to recontexualize victims' situations and, through mechanisms largely unacknowledged by the victims, to subtly demean their personhood, and to shame them and render them voiceless. This study directs formal attention to the language of workplace bullying. Further study might strengthen opportunities to effectively address and curtail the long-term personal, professional, and organizational injuries deriving from workplace bullying. © 2014 Sigma Theta Tau International.

Catastrophizing in Patients with Burning Mouth Syndrome

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ana ANDABAK ROGULJ

2014-01-01

Full Text Available Background: Burning mouth syndrome (BMS is an idiopathic painful condition which manifests with burning sensations in the oral cavity in patients with clinically normal oral mucosa and without any local and/or systemic causative factor. Catastrophizing is defined as an exaggerated negative orientation toward pain stimuli and pain experience. The aim of this study was to examine the association between catastrophizing and clinical parameters of BMS, and to examine the association between catastrophizing and the quality of life in patients with BMS. Materials and methods: Anonymous questionnaire consisting of 3 parts (demographic and clinical data with 100 mm visual analogue scale (VAS, Croatian version of the Oral Health Impact Profile (OHIP-14 scale and Croatian version of the Pain Catastrophizing scale (PC, was distributed to 30 patients diagnosed with BMS. Results: A higher level of catastrophizing was clinically significant in 30% of the patients. Total catastrophizing score and all three subcomponents of catastrophizing significantly correlated with the intensity of symptoms, but did not correlate with the duration of symptoms. Gender and previous treatment did not affect the catastrophizing. Conclusion: Obtaining the information about catastrophizing could help a clinician to identify patients with negative behavioural patterns. Additional psychological intervention in these individuals could reduce/eliminate negative cognitive factors and improve coping with chronic painful condition such as BMS.

Replication Catastrophe

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Toledo, Luis; Neelsen, Kai John; Lukas, Jiri

2017-01-01

Proliferating cells rely on the so-called DNA replication checkpoint to ensure orderly completion of genome duplication, and its malfunction may lead to catastrophic genome disruption, including unscheduled firing of replication origins, stalling and collapse of replication forks, massive DNA...... breakage, and, ultimately, cell death. Despite many years of intensive research into the molecular underpinnings of the eukaryotic replication checkpoint, the mechanisms underlying the dismal consequences of its failure remain enigmatic. A recent development offers a unifying model in which the replication...... checkpoint guards against global exhaustion of rate-limiting replication regulators. Here we discuss how such a mechanism can prevent catastrophic genome disruption and suggest how to harness this knowledge to advance therapeutic strategies to eliminate cancer cells that inherently proliferate under...

Theory of a slow-light catastrophe

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Leonhardt, Ulf

2002-01-01

In diffraction catastrophes such as the rainbow, the wave nature of light resolves ray singularities and draws delicate interference patterns. In quantum catastrophes such as the black hole, the quantum nature of light resolves wave singularities and creates characteristic quantum effects related to Hawking radiation. This paper describes the theory behind a recent proposal [U. Leonhardt, Nature (London) 415, 406 (2002)] to generate a quantum catastrophe of slow light

Theory of a slow-light catastrophe

Science.gov (United States)

Leonhardt, Ulf

2002-04-01

In diffraction catastrophes such as the rainbow, the wave nature of light resolves ray singularities and draws delicate interference patterns. In quantum catastrophes such as the black hole, the quantum nature of light resolves wave singularities and creates characteristic quantum effects related to Hawking radiation. This paper describes the theory behind a recent proposal [U. Leonhardt, Nature (London) 415, 406 (2002)] to generate a quantum catastrophe of slow light.

Theory of a Slow-Light Catastrophe

OpenAIRE

Leonhardt, Ulf

2001-01-01

In diffraction catastrophes such as the rainbow the wave nature of light resolves ray singularities and draws delicate interference patterns. In quantum catastrophes such as the black hole the quantum nature of light resolves wave singularities and creates characteristic quantum effects related to Hawking radiation. The paper describes the theory behind a recent proposal [U. Leonhardt, arXiv:physics/0111058, Nature (in press)] to generate a quantum catastrophe of slow light.

How are the catastrophical risks quantifiable

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chakraborty, S.

1985-01-01

For the assessment and evaluation of industrial risks the question must be asked how are the catastrophical risks quantifiable. Typical real catastrophical risks and risk assessment based on modelling assumptions have been placed against each other in order to put the risks into proper perspective. However, the society is risk averse when there is a catastrophic potential of severe accidents in a large scale industrial facility even though there is extremely low probability of occurence. (orig.) [de

Environmental catastrophes under time-inconsistent preference

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Michielsen, T.

2013-02-15

I analyze optimal natural resource use in an intergenerational model with the risk of a catastrophe. Each generation maximizes a weighted sum of discounted utility (positive) and the probability that a catastrophe will occur at any point in the future (negative). The model generates time inconsistency as generations disagree on the relative weights on utility and catastrophe prevention. As a consequence, future generations emit too much from the current generation's perspective and a dynamic game ensues. I consider a sequence of models. When the environmental problem is related to a scarce exhaustible resource, early generations have an incentive to reduce emissions in Markov equilibrium in order to enhance the ecosystem's resilience to future emissions. When the pollutant is expected to become obsolete in the near future, early generations may however increase their emissions if this reduces future emissions. When polluting inputs are abundant and expected to remain essential, the catastrophe becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy and the degree of concern for catastrophe prevention has limited or even no effect on equilibrium behaviour.

Catastrophe medicine; Medecine de catastrophe

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lebreton, A. [Service Technique de l`Energie Electrique et des Grands Barrages (STEEGB), (France)

1996-12-31

The `Catastrophe Medicine` congress which took place in Amiens (France) in December 5 to 7 1996 was devoted to the assessment and management of risks and hazards in natural and artificial systems. The methods of risk evaluation and prevision were discussed in the context of dams accidents with the analysis of experience feedbacks and lessons gained from the organisation of emergency plans. Three round table conferences were devoted to the importance of psychological aspects during such major crises. (J.S.)

Axial and focal-plane diffraction catastrophe integrals

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Berry, M V; Howls, C J

2010-01-01

Exact expressions in terms of Bessel functions are found for some of the diffraction catastrophe integrals that decorate caustics in optics and mechanics. These are the axial and focal-plane sections of the elliptic and hyperbolic umbilic diffraction catastrophes, and symmetric elliptic and hyperbolic unfoldings of the X 9 diffraction catastrophes. These representations reveal unexpected relations between the integrals.

Coronal Flux Rope Catastrophe Associated With Internal Energy Release

Science.gov (United States)

Zhuang, Bin; Hu, Youqiu; Wang, Yuming; Zhang, Quanhao; Liu, Rui; Gou, Tingyu; Shen, Chenglong

2018-04-01

Magnetic energy during the catastrophe was predominantly studied by the previous catastrophe works since it is believed to be the main energy supplier for the solar eruptions. However, the contribution of other types of energies during the catastrophe cannot be neglected. This paper studies the catastrophe of the coronal flux rope system in the solar wind background, with emphasis on the transformation of different types of energies during the catastrophe. The coronal flux rope is characterized by its axial and poloidal magnetic fluxes and total mass. It is shown that a catastrophe can be triggered by not only an increase but also a decrease of the axial magnetic flux. Moreover, the internal energy of the rope is found to be released during the catastrophe so as to provide energy for the upward eruption of the flux rope. As far as the magnetic energy is concerned, it provides only part of the energy release, or even increases during the catastrophe, so the internal energy may act as the dominant or even the unique energy supplier during the catastrophe.

Energy catastrophes and energy consumption

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Davis, G.

1991-01-01

The possibility of energy catastrophes in the production of energy serves to make estimation of the true social costs of energy production difficult. As a result, there is a distinct possibility that the private marginal cost curve of energy producers lies to the left or right of the true cost curve. If so, social welfare will not be maximized, and underconsumption or overconsumption of fuels will exist. The occurrence of energy catastrophes and observance of the market reaction to these occurrences indicates that overconsumption of energy has been the case in the past. Postulations as to market reactions to further energy catastrophes lead to the presumption that energy consumption levels remain above those that are socially optimal

The nuclear suicide. Rev. ed.

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gruhl, H.

1988-01-01

The author, one of the most consistent opponents of nuclear power, strikes a balance after the Chernobyl catastrophe. He relentlessly analyses the 'German nuclear situation', developments to be expected from risks and catastrophic events. He exposes statements offered by the owners of power plants and by politicians as attempts to play risks down, and hopes to achieve a turnabout yet. The conjunction of technical and physical arguments with a fundamental criticism of the ideology of economic growth is what distinguishes this book from other publications critical of nuclear energy. But the author does not content himself with criticism, he goes on to point out realistic measures for opting out of nuclear energy. (orig./HSCH) With 10 figs. and maps [de

Socio-economic consequences of Chernobyl catastrophe. Social protection of the citizens, affected owing to Chernobyl catastrophe

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kholosha, V.; Kovalchuk, V.

2003-01-01

The accident on Chernobyl NPP has affected the destiny of 35 million people in Ukraine. The social protection of the population affected during Chernobyl catastrophe is founded on the Law of Ukraine 'About the status and social protection of citizens affected owing to Chernobyl catastrophe' (see further - 'Law'), and is the principal direction of activity and the subject of the special state attention to total complex of problems bound to Chernobyl catastrophe consequences elimination. The current legislation stipulates partial compensation of material losses connected with resettlement of the affected population. According to the current legislation in Ukraine about 50 kinds of aid, privileges and compensations are submitted to the affected citizens

Multiple Sclerosis and Catastrophic Health Expenditure in Iran.

Science.gov (United States)

Juyani, Yaser; Hamedi, Dorsa; Hosseini Jebeli, Seyede Sedighe; Qasham, Maryam

2016-09-01

There are many disabling medical conditions which can result in catastrophic health expenditure. Multiple Sclerosis is one of the most costly medical conditions through the world which encounter families to the catastrophic health expenditures. This study aims to investigate on what extent Multiple sclerosis patients face catastrophic costs. This study was carried out in Ahvaz, Iran (2014). The study population included households that at least one of their members suffers from MS. To analyze data, Logit regression model was employed by using the default software STATA12. 3.37% of families were encountered with catastrophic costs. Important variables including brand of drug, housing, income and health insurance were significantly correlated with catastrophic expenditure. This study suggests that although a small proportion of MS patients met the catastrophic health expenditure, mechanisms that pool risk and cost (e.g. health insurance) are required to protect them and improve financial and access equity in health care.

DOWNWARD CATASTROPHE OF SOLAR MAGNETIC FLUX ROPES

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Zhang, Quanhao; Wang, Yuming; Hu, Youqiu; Liu, Rui, E-mail: zhangqh@mail.ustc.edu.cn [CAS Key Laboratory of Geospace Environment, Department of Geophysics and Planetary Sciences, University of Science and Technology of China, Hefei 230026 (China)

2016-07-10

2.5-dimensional time-dependent ideal magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) models in Cartesian coordinates were used in previous studies to seek MHD equilibria involving a magnetic flux rope embedded in a bipolar, partially open background field. As demonstrated by these studies, the equilibrium solutions of the system are separated into two branches: the flux rope sticks to the photosphere for solutions at the lower branch but is suspended in the corona for those at the upper branch. Moreover, a solution originally at the lower branch jumps to the upper, as the related control parameter increases and reaches a critical value, and the associated jump is here referred to as an upward catastrophe. The present paper advances these studies in three aspects. First, the magnetic field is changed to be force-free; the system still experiences an upward catastrophe with an increase in each control parameter. Second, under the force-free approximation, there also exists a downward catastrophe, characterized by the jump of a solution from the upper branch to the lower. Both catastrophes are irreversible processes connecting the two branches of equilibrium solutions so as to form a cycle. Finally, the magnetic energy in the numerical domain is calculated. It is found that there exists a magnetic energy release for both catastrophes. The Ampère's force, which vanishes everywhere for force-free fields, appears only during the catastrophes and does positive work, which serves as a major mechanism for the energy release. The implications of the downward catastrophe and its relevance to solar activities are briefly discussed.

DOWNWARD CATASTROPHE OF SOLAR MAGNETIC FLUX ROPES

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zhang, Quanhao; Wang, Yuming; Hu, Youqiu; Liu, Rui

2016-01-01

2.5-dimensional time-dependent ideal magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) models in Cartesian coordinates were used in previous studies to seek MHD equilibria involving a magnetic flux rope embedded in a bipolar, partially open background field. As demonstrated by these studies, the equilibrium solutions of the system are separated into two branches: the flux rope sticks to the photosphere for solutions at the lower branch but is suspended in the corona for those at the upper branch. Moreover, a solution originally at the lower branch jumps to the upper, as the related control parameter increases and reaches a critical value, and the associated jump is here referred to as an upward catastrophe. The present paper advances these studies in three aspects. First, the magnetic field is changed to be force-free; the system still experiences an upward catastrophe with an increase in each control parameter. Second, under the force-free approximation, there also exists a downward catastrophe, characterized by the jump of a solution from the upper branch to the lower. Both catastrophes are irreversible processes connecting the two branches of equilibrium solutions so as to form a cycle. Finally, the magnetic energy in the numerical domain is calculated. It is found that there exists a magnetic energy release for both catastrophes. The Ampère's force, which vanishes everywhere for force-free fields, appears only during the catastrophes and does positive work, which serves as a major mechanism for the energy release. The implications of the downward catastrophe and its relevance to solar activities are briefly discussed.

Catastrophic Antiphospholipid Syndrome

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Rawhya R. El-Shereef

2016-01-01

Full Text Available This paper reports one case of successfully treated patients suffering from a rare entity, the catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome (CAPS. Management of this patient is discussed in detail.

Catastrophe theory and its application status in mechanical engineering

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jinge LIU

Full Text Available Catastrophe theory is a kind of mathematical method which aims to apply and interpret the discontinuous phenomenon. Since its emergence, it has been widely used to explain a variety of emergent phenomena in the fields of natural science, social science, management science and some other science and technology fields. Firstly, this paper introduces the theory of catastrophe in several aspects, such as its generation, radical principle, basic characteristics and development. Secondly, it summarizes the main applications of catastrophe theory in the field of mechanical engineering, focusing on the research progress of catastrophe theory in revealing catastrophe of rotor vibration state, analyzing friction and wear failure, predicting metal fracture, and so on. Finally, it advises that later development of catastrophe theory should pay more attention to the combination of itself with other traditional nonlinear theories and methods. This paper provides a beneficial reference to guide the application of catastrophe theory in mechanical engineering and related fields for later research.

'The star called Wormwood': the cause and effect of the Chernobyl catastrophe

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Knorre, H.

1992-01-01

The explosion of the Chernobyl nuclear power station in 1986 astounded the world. It was shocking not just because of the technical failure - unfortunately such things happen from time to time - but as a social and political failure. The Chernobyl catastrophe undermined and exposed the false, vicious and inhumane Soviet totalitarian system. The Chernobyl explosion initiated the disintegration of the corrupt Communist regime - a regime which had been deemed unshakeable in the USSR. (author)

Extensional rheometer based on viscoelastic catastrophes outline

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

2014-01-01

The present invention relates to a method and a device for determining viscoelastic properties of a fluid. The invention resides inter alia in the generation of viscoelastic catastrophes in confined systems for use in the context of extensional rheology. The viscoelastic catastrophe is according ...... to the invention generated in a bistable fluid system, and the flow conditions for which the catastrophe occurs can be used as a fingerprint of the fluid's viscoelastic properties in extensional flow....

Catastrophic loss risks: An economic and legal analysis, and a model state statute

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Meyer, M.B.

1984-01-01

Catastrophic loss risk producing facilities or activities are defined as those human enterprises which are theoretically capable of producing some credible event which entails extremely large losses of human life, health, or property. Two examples of catastrophic loss risk producing facilities are examined, commercial nuclear power plants and LNG terminals. These two types of facilities appear to produce a type of externality in that they impose uncompensated loss risk costs on neighbors. Further, these two types of facilities may be quite dependent upon the subsidies implicit in these externalities for their continued economic operation. A model state statute is proposed which would use insurance premiums as an unbiased source of probability and outcome estimates in order to eliminate this externality and the resulting subsidy, and as a way of improving the present situation within certain economic limits

PARAMETRIC INSURANCE COVER FOR NATURAL CATASTROPHE RISKS

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Serghei Margulescu

2013-11-01

Full Text Available With economic losses of over USD 370 bn caused by 325 catastrophic events, 2011 ranks as the worst ever year in terms of costs to society due to natural catastrophes and man-made disasters. Inthe same time, 2011 is the second most expensive year in the history for the insurance industry, with insured losses from catastrophic events amounting to USD 116 bn. Both the high level of damages and insured losses, as well as the unprecedented gap between the two values, made insurers and reinsurers worldwide to understand that some risks had so far been underestimated and they have to be better integrated in the catastrophes modelling.On the other hand, governments have to protect themselves against the financial impact of natural catastrophes and new forms of cooperation between the public and private sectors can help countries finance disaster risks. Viewed in a country’s wider risk management context, the purchase of parametric insurance cover, which transfers natural catastrophe risk to the private sector using an index- based trigger, is a necessary shift towards a pre-emptive risk management strategy. This kind of approach can be pursued by central governments or at the level of provincial or municipal governments, and a number of case studies included in the publication “Closing the financial gap” by Swiss Re (2011 illustrates how new forms of parametric insurance can help countries finance disaster risks.

Applications of modelling historical catastrophic events with implications for catastrophe risk management

Science.gov (United States)

Sorby, A.; Grossi, P.; Pomonis, A.; Williams, C.; Nyst, M.; Onur, T.; Seneviratna, P.; Baca, A.

2009-04-01

The management of catastrophe risk is concerned with the quantification of financial losses, and their associated probabilities, for potential future catastrophes that might impact a region. Modelling of historical catastrophe events and, in particular, the potential consequences if a similar event were to occur at the present day can provide insight to help bridge the gap between what we know can happen from historical experience and what potential losses might be out there in the "universe" of potential catastrophes. The 1908 Messina Earthquake (and accompanying local tsunami) was one of the most destructive earthquakes to have occurred in Europe and by most accounts remains Europe's most fatal with over 70,000 casualties estimated. However, what would the potential consequences be, in terms of financial and human losses, if a similar earthquake were to occur at the present day? Exposures, building stock and populations can change over time and, therefore, the consequences of a similar earthquake at the present day may sensibly differ from those observed in 1908. The city of Messina has been reconstructed several times in its history, including following the 1908 earthquake and again following the Second World War. The 1908 earthquake prompted the introduction of the first seismic design regulations in Italy and since 1909 parts of the Messina and Calabria regions have been in the zones of highest seismic coefficient. Utilizing commercial catastrophe loss modelling technology - which combines the modelling of hazard, vulnerability, and financial losses on a database of property exposures - a modelled earthquake scenario of M7.2 in the Messina Straits region of Southern Italy is considered. This modelled earthquake is used to assess the potential consequences in terms of financial losses that an earthquake similar to the 1908 earthquake might have if it were to occur at the present day. Loss results are discussed in the context of applications for the financial

The impact of climate change on catastrophe risk models : implications for catastrophe risk markets in developing countries

OpenAIRE

Seo, John; Mahul, Olivier

2009-01-01

Catastrophe risk models allow insurers, reinsurers and governments to assess the risk of loss from catastrophic events, such as hurricanes. These models rely on computer technology and the latest earth and meteorological science information to generate thousands if not millions of simulated events. Recently observed hurricane activity, particularly in the 2004 and 2005 hurricane seasons, i...

Catastrophic events leading to de facto limits on liability

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Solomon, K.A.; Okrent, D.

1977-05-01

This study conducts an overview of large technological systems in society to ascertain prevalence, if any, of situations that can lead to catastrophic effects where the resultant liabilities far exceed the insurances or assets subject to suit in court, thereby imposing de facto limits on liability. Several potential situations are examined: dam rupture, aircraft crash into a sports stadium, chemical plant accident, shipping disaster, and a toxic drug disaster. All of these events are estimated to have probabilities per year similar to or larger than a major nuclear accident and they are found to involve potential liability far exceeding the available resources, such as insurance, corporation assets, or government revenues

Manipulation of pain catastrophizing: An experimental study of healthy participants

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Joel E Bialosky

2008-11-01

Full Text Available Joel E Bialosky1*, Adam T Hirsh2,3, Michael E Robinson2,3, Steven Z George1,3*1Department of Physical Therapy; 2Department of Clinical and Health Psychology; 3Center for Pain Research and Behavioral Health, University of Florida, Gainesville, Florida, USAAbstract: Pain catastrophizing is associated with the pain experience; however, causation has not been established. Studies which specifically manipulate catastrophizing are necessary to establish causation. The present study enrolled 100 healthy individuals. Participants were randomly assigned to repeat a positive, neutral, or one of three catastrophizing statements during a cold pressor task (CPT. Outcome measures of pain tolerance and pain intensity were recorded. No change was noted in catastrophizing immediately following the CPT (F(1,84 = 0.10, p = 0.75, partial η2 < 0.01 independent of group assignment (F(4,84 = 0.78, p = 0.54, partial η2 = 0.04. Pain tolerance (F(4 = 0.67, p = 0.62, partial η2 = 0.03 and pain intensity (F(4 = 0.73, p = 0.58, partial η2 = 0.03 did not differ by group. This study suggests catastrophizing may be difficult to manipulate through experimental pain procedures and repetition of specific catastrophizing statements was not sufficient to change levels of catastrophizing. Additionally, pain tolerance and pain intensity did not differ by group assignment. This study has implications for future studies attempting to experimentally manipulate pain catastrophizing.Keywords: pain, catastrophizing, experimental, cold pressor task, pain catastrophizing scale

Valuing Catastrophe Bonds Involving Credit Risks

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jian Liu

2014-01-01

Full Text Available Catastrophe bonds are the most important products in catastrophe risk securitization market. For the operating mechanism, CAT bonds may have a credit risk, so in this paper we consider the influence of the credit risk on CAT bonds pricing that is different from the other literature. We employ the Jarrow and Turnbull method to model the credit risks and get access to the general pricing formula using the Extreme Value Theory. Furthermore, we present an empirical pricing study of the Property Claim Services data, where the parameters in the loss function distribution are estimated by the MLE method and the default probabilities are deduced by the US financial market data. Then we get the catastrophe bonds value by the Monte Carlo method.

Does catastrophic thinking enhance oesophageal pain sensitivity?

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Martel, M O; Olesen, A E; Jørgensen, D

2016-01-01

that catastrophic thinking exerts an influence on oesophageal pain sensitivity, but not necessarily on the magnitude of acid-induced oesophageal sensitization. WHAT DOES THIS STUDY ADD?: Catastrophizing is associated with heightened pain sensitivity in the oesophagus. This was substantiated by assessing responses...

Nuclear terrorism and reality

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

St Sauver, J.E.

1983-01-01

Unlike conventional terrorist violence, bona-fide nuclear terrorism is a self-publicizing phenomenon. It is a public event by the very scope of its impact. Apocalyptic and catastrophically destructive, a nuclear explosion is the ideal instrument of mass terror. Rational nuclear insurgents would not inform authorities that a nuclear device is about to be detonated. Advance warning of an impending nuclear explosion would reduce the maximum potential effectiveness of any response to such an event

Is nuclear power and alternative?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lejon, E.

1996-01-01

In this chapter of the book author deals with the historical background for the nuclear energy power. Some statistical data about nuclear power stations as well as on radioactive wastes are given. The Chernobyl catastrophe is described. Author thinks that nuclear energy is not safe and it has no perspective in future

Nuclear suicide. Rev. ed. [FRG]. Der atomare Selbstmord

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Gruhl, H

1988-01-01

The author, one of the most consistent opponents of nuclear power, strikes a balance after the Chernobyl catastrophe. He relentlessly analyses the 'German nuclear situation', developments to be expected from risks and catastrophic events. He exposes statements offered by the owners of power plants and by politicians as attempts to play risks down, and hopes to achieve a turnabout yet. The conjunction of technical and physical arguments with a fundamental criticism of the ideology of economic growth is what distinguishes this book from other publications critical of nuclear energy. But the author does not content himself with criticism, he goes on to point out realistic measures for opting out of nuclear energy. (orig./HSCH) With 10 figs. and maps.

CATASTROPHIC EVENTS MODELING

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ciumas Cristina

2013-07-01

Full Text Available This paper presents the emergence and evolution of catastrophe models (cat models. Starting with the present context of extreme weather events and features of catastrophic risk (cat risk we’ll make a chronological illustration from a theoretical point of view of the main steps taken for building such models. In this way the importance of interdisciplinary can be observed. The first cat model considered contains three modules. For each of these indentified modules: hazard, vulnerability and financial losses a detailed overview and also an exemplification of a potential case of an earthquake that measures more than 7 on Richter scale occurring nowadays in Bucharest will be provided. The key areas exposed to earthquake in Romania will be identified. Then, based on past catastrophe data and taking into account present conditions of housing stock, insurance coverage and the population of Bucharest the impact will be quantified by determining potential losses. In order to accomplish this work we consider a scenario with data representing average values for: dwelling’s surface, location, finishing works. On each step we’ll make a reference to the earthquake on March 4 1977 to see what would happen today if a similar event occurred. The value of Bucharest housing stock will be determined taking firstly the market value, then the replacement value and ultimately the real value to quantify potential damages. Through this approach we can find the insurance coverage of potential losses and also the uncovered gap. A solution that may be taken into account by public authorities, for example by Bucharest City Hall will be offered: in case such an event occurs the impossibility of paying compensations to insured people, rebuilding infrastructure and public buildings and helping the suffering persons should be avoided. An actively public-private partnership should be created between government authorities, the Natural Disaster Insurance Pool, private

From a Catastrophe Itself to Cata/strophic Reading. The Poetry of Charles Baudelaire in the Account of Jorge Semprúna L’écriture ou la vie

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Judith Kasper

2015-01-01

Full Text Available This essay addresses the instable meaning of the term catastrophe over the course of history. The first part takes leave of the “the tiny fissures” in the continuous catastrophe noted by Walter Benjamin to develop a philology of the cata/strophe. This philology does not only register a given meaning (for instance, of the catastrophe, but intervenes actively as disruption. It insists on the strophe in the catastrophe, transforming catastrophe into cata/strophe that, in fatal situations, permits the poetic potential to become a dynamic force that can, at least on the linguistic level, open toward other dimensions without denying the catastrophe itself. The second part is dedicated to a reading of Jorge Semprún’s autobiographical novel L’écriture ou la vie from the perspective of this philological concept. It seeks to show how Semprún’s citing and reciting of Baudelaire’s strophes in the putrid atmosphere of the Buchenwald concentration camp literally produce, on the level of the signifiers, fresh air to breathe.

Photography and nuclear catastrophe. The visual representation of the occurrences in Hiroshima/Nagasaki and Chernobyl; Fotografie und atomare Katastrophe. Die visuelle Repraesentation der Ereignisse von Hiroshima/Nagasaki und Tschernobyl

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Buerkner, Daniel

2014-02-13

The dissertation project seeks to analyse the photographic positions that deal with the atomic bomb attacks on Hiroshima and Nagasaki and the accident of the nuclear power plant in Chernobyl. This focus includes press photographs of the events as well as artistic, documentary and touristic images that take an approach towards the disasters often years after and hereby form iconographic or material references to the events. The study reveals central strategies for photographic images of atomic catastrophes, be they of military or civil nature. It is the inability to visualize non-visible nuclear rays or the complexity of processes on an atomic level that has turned out to be crucial. This incapacity of making images, a paradigm of invisibility, substantially coins the cultural role of the events. The question of how a society deals with these abstract potentials of nuclear technology has turned out to be always anew of high relevance in regard to ecological, social and technological policies of images.

Catastrophic primary antiphospholipid syndrome

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kim, Dong Hun; Byun, Joo Nam; Ryu, Sang Wan

2006-01-01

Catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome (CAPLS) was diagnosed in a 64-year-old male who was admitted to our hospital with dyspnea. The clinical and radiological examinations showed pulmonary thromboembolism, and so thromboembolectomy was performed. Abdominal distension rapidly developed several days later, and the abdominal computed tomography (CT) abdominal scan revealed thrombus within the superior mesenteric artery with small bowel and gall bladder distension. Cholecystectomy and jejunoileostomy were performed, and gall bladder necrosis and small bowel infarction were confirmed. The anticardiolipin antibody was positive. Anticoagulant agents and steroids were administered, but the patient expired 4 weeks after surgery due to acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS). We report here on a case of catastrophic APLS with manifestations of pulmonary thromboembolism, rapidly progressing GB necrosis and bowel infarction

Catastrophic primary antiphospholipid syndrome

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kim, Dong Hun; Byun, Joo Nam [Chosun University Hospital, Gwangju (Korea, Republic of); Ryu, Sang Wan [Miraero21 Medical Center, Gwangju (Korea, Republic of)

2006-09-15

Catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome (CAPLS) was diagnosed in a 64-year-old male who was admitted to our hospital with dyspnea. The clinical and radiological examinations showed pulmonary thromboembolism, and so thromboembolectomy was performed. Abdominal distension rapidly developed several days later, and the abdominal computed tomography (CT) abdominal scan revealed thrombus within the superior mesenteric artery with small bowel and gall bladder distension. Cholecystectomy and jejunoileostomy were performed, and gall bladder necrosis and small bowel infarction were confirmed. The anticardiolipin antibody was positive. Anticoagulant agents and steroids were administered, but the patient expired 4 weeks after surgery due to acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS). We report here on a case of catastrophic APLS with manifestations of pulmonary thromboembolism, rapidly progressing GB necrosis and bowel infarction.

Vaginismus: heightened harm avoidance and pain catastrophizing cognitions.

Science.gov (United States)

Borg, Charmaine; Peters, Madelon L; Schultz, Willibrord Weijmar; de Jong, Peter J

2012-02-01

Catastrophic appraisal of experienced pain may promote hypervigilance and intense pain, while the personality trait of harm avoidance (HA) might prevent the occurrence of correcting such experiences. Women inflicted with vaginismus may enter a self-perpetuating downward spiral of increasing avoidance of (anticipated) pain. In vaginismus the anticipation of pain may give rise to catastrophic pain ideation. This may establish hypervigilance toward painful sexual stimuli, which consequently results in negative appraisal of sexual cues. This process could impair genital and sexual responding, intensify pain and trigger avoidance, which in turn may contribute to the onset and persistence of symptoms in vaginismus and to certain extent also in dyspareunia. To investigate whether women suffering from vaginismus are characterized by heightened levels of habitual pain catastrophic cognitions, together with higher levels of HA. This study consisted of three groups: a lifelong vaginismus group (N = 35, mean age = 28.4; standard deviation [SD] = 5.8), a dyspareunia group (N = 33, mean age = 26.7; SD = 6.8), and women without sexual complaints (N = 54, mean age = 26.5; SD = 6.7). HA scale of Cloninger's tridimensional personality questionnaire, and the pain catastrophizing scale. Specifically women inflicted with vaginismus showed significantly heightened levels of catastrophic pain cognitions compared with the other two groups, as well as significant enhanced HA vs. the control group, and a trend vs. the dyspareunia group. Both traits were shown to have cumulative predictive validity for the presence of vaginismus. This study focused on the personality traits of catastrophizing pain cognitions and HA in women with lifelong vaginismus. Our findings showed that indeed, women suffering from vaginismus are characterized by trait of HA interwoven with habitual pain catastrophizing cognitions. This study could help in the refinement of the current conceptualization and might shed

Socioeconomic inequality in catastrophic health expenditure in Brazil.

Science.gov (United States)

Boing, Alexandra Crispim; Bertoldi, Andréa Dâmaso; Barros, Aluísio Jardim Dornellas de; Posenato, Leila Garcia; Peres, Karen Glazer

2014-08-01

To analyze the evolution of catastrophic health expenditure and the inequalities in such expenses, according to the socioeconomic characteristics of Brazilian families. Data from the National Household Budget 2002-2003 (48,470 households) and 2008-2009 (55,970 households) were analyzed. Catastrophic health expenditure was defined as excess expenditure, considering different methods of calculation: 10.0% and 20.0% of total consumption and 40.0% of the family's capacity to pay. The National Economic Indicator and schooling were considered as socioeconomic characteristics. Inequality measures utilized were the relative difference between rates, the rates ratio, and concentration index. The catastrophic health expenditure varied between 0.7% and 21.0%, depending on the calculation method. The lowest prevalences were noted in relation to the capacity to pay, while the highest, in relation to total consumption. The prevalence of catastrophic health expenditure increased by 25.0% from 2002-2003 to 2008-2009 when the cutoff point of 20.0% relating to the total consumption was considered and by 100% when 40.0% or more of the capacity to pay was applied as the cut-off point. Socioeconomic inequalities in the catastrophic health expenditure in Brazil between 2002-2003 and 2008-2009 increased significantly, becoming 5.20 times higher among the poorest and 4.17 times higher among the least educated. There was an increase in catastrophic health expenditure among Brazilian families, principally among the poorest and those headed by the least-educated individuals, contributing to an increase in social inequality.

Understanding catastrophizing from a misdirected problem-solving perspective.

Science.gov (United States)

Flink, Ida K; Boersma, Katja; MacDonald, Shane; Linton, Steven J

2012-05-01

The aim is to explore pain catastrophizing from a problem-solving perspective. The links between catastrophizing, problem framing, and problem-solving behaviour are examined through two possible models of mediation as inferred by two contemporary and complementary theoretical models, the misdirected problem solving model (Eccleston & Crombez, 2007) and the fear-anxiety-avoidance model (Asmundson, Norton, & Vlaeyen, 2004). In this prospective study, a general population sample (n= 173) with perceived problems with spinal pain filled out questionnaires twice; catastrophizing and problem framing were assessed on the first occasion and health care seeking (as a proxy for medically oriented problem solving) was assessed 7 months later. Two different approaches were used to explore whether the data supported any of the proposed models of mediation. First, multiple regressions were used according to traditional recommendations for mediation analyses. Second, a bootstrapping method (n= 1000 bootstrap resamples) was used to explore the significance of the indirect effects in both possible models of mediation. The results verified the concepts included in the misdirected problem solving model. However, the direction of the relations was more in line with the fear-anxiety-avoidance model. More specifically, the mediation analyses provided support for viewing catastrophizing as a mediator of the relation between biomedical problem framing and medically oriented problem-solving behaviour. These findings provide support for viewing catastrophizing from a problem-solving perspective and imply a need to examine and address problem framing and catastrophizing in back pain patients. ©2011 The British Psychological Society.

Clinical Pain Catastrophizing in Women With Migraine and Obesity.

Science.gov (United States)

Bond, Dale S; Buse, Dawn C; Lipton, Richard B; Thomas, J Graham; Rathier, Lucille; Roth, Julie; Pavlovic, Jelena M; Evans, E Whitney; Wing, Rena R

2015-01-01

Obesity is related to migraine. Maladaptive pain coping strategies (eg, pain catastrophizing) may provide insight into this relationship. In women with migraine and obesity, we cross-sectionally assessed: (1) prevalence of clinical catastrophizing; (2) characteristics of those with and without clinical catastrophizing; and (3) associations of catastrophizing with headache features. Obese women migraineurs seeking weight loss treatment (n = 105) recorded daily migraine activity for 1 month via smartphone and completed the Pain Catastrophizing Scale (PCS). Clinical catastrophizing was defined as total PCS score ≥30. The six-item Headache Impact Test (HIT-6), 12-item Allodynia Symptom Checklist (ASC-12), Headache Management Self-Efficacy Scale (HMSE), and assessments for depression (Centers for Epidemiologic Studies Depression Scale) and anxiety (seven-item Generalized Anxiety Disorder Scale) were also administered. Using PCS scores and body mass index (BMI) as predictors in linear regression, we modeled a series of headache features (ie, headache days, HIT-6, etc) as outcomes. One quarter (25.7%; 95% confidence interval [CI] = 17.2-34.1%) of participants met criteria for clinical catastrophizing: they had higher BMI (37.9 ± 7.5 vs 34.4 ± 5.7 kg/m(2) , P = .035); longer migraine attack duration (160.8 ± 145.0 vs 97.5 ± 75.2 hours/month, P = .038); higher HIT-6 scores (68.7 ± 4.6 vs 64.5 ± 3.9, P duration (β = 0.390, P duration, higher pain sensitivity, greater headache impact, and lower headache management self-efficacy. In all participants, PCS scores were related to several migraine characteristics, above and beyond the effects of obesity. Prospective studies are needed to determine sequence and mechanisms of relationships between catastrophizing, obesity, and migraine. © 2015 American Headache Society.

Catastrophic events and older adults.

Science.gov (United States)

Cloyd, Elizabeth; Dyer, Carmel B

2010-12-01

The plight of older adults during catastrophic events is a societal concern. Older persons have an increased prevalence of cognitive disorders, chronic illnesses, and mobility problems that limit their ability to cope. These disorders may result in a lack of mental capacity and the ability to discern when they should evacuate or resolve problems encountered during a catastrophe. Some older persons may have limited transportation options, and many of the elderly survivors are at increased risk for abuse, neglect, and exploitation. Recommendations for future catastrophic events include the development of a federal tracking system for elders and other vulnerable adults, the designation of separate shelter areas for elders and other vulnerable adults, and involvement of gerontological professionals in all aspects of emergency preparedness and care delivery, including training of frontline workers. Preparation through preevent planning that includes region-specific social services, medical and public health resources, volunteers, and facilities for elders and vulnerable adults is critical. Elders need to be protected from abuse and fraud during catastrophic events. A public health triage system for elders and other vulnerable populations in pre- and postdisaster situations is useful, and disaster preparedness is paramount. Communities and members of safety and rescue teams must address ethical issues before an event. When older adults are involved, consideration needs to be given to triage decision making, transporting those who are immobile, the care of older adults who receive palliative care, and the equitable distribution of resources. Nurses are perfectly equipped with the skills, knowledge, and training needed to plan and implement disaster preparedness programs. In keeping with the tradition of Florence Nightingale, nurses can assume several crucial roles in disaster preparedness for older adults. Nurses possess the ability to participate and lead community

Community centers of UNESCO-Chernobyl programme-psychological support model for population in a post-catastrophe crisis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Garnets, O.

1998-01-01

Community Centers for Psycho-social Rehabilitation created within UNESCO - Chernobyl Programme (Project no 64) is aimed at providing psychological support to population suffered from the catastrophe. Centers are located in communities that in different ways suffered from Chernobyl - people evacuated and relocated from the contaminated territories, people who are still living in contaminated regions, employees of the nuclear power plant etc. Centres are providing psychological support to people suffered from Chernobyl catastrophe, trough developing adaptive behavior models under living conditions that changed - both ecological and social and economic crises, developing of personal and social responsibility in community members. The professionals of Community Centers implement activities aimed on coping victimization, on community interaction and communities restructuring. They are working with all age and social groups in the communities, with acute crises and suicide prevention, creating mutual support mechanisms. Centres performance results in decrease of psycho-social tension and anxiety in population. Centers present successfully functioning model of social and psychological support under complicated ecological and social conditions in post soviet countries. They have accumulated unique professional and organizational experience of efficient work in, a post-catastrophe period under social and economic crisis. (author)

Community centers of UNESCO-Chernobyl programme-psychological support model for population in a post-catastrophe crisis

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Garnets, O. [UNESCO-Chernobyl Programme Project (Ukraine)

1998-07-01

Community Centers for Psycho-social Rehabilitation created within UNESCO - Chernobyl Programme (Project no 64) is aimed at providing psychological support to population suffered from the catastrophe. Centers are located in communities that in different ways suffered from Chernobyl - people evacuated and relocated from the contaminated territories, people who are still living in contaminated regions, employees of the nuclear power plant etc. Centres are providing psychological support to people suffered from Chernobyl catastrophe, trough developing adaptive behavior models under living conditions that changed - both ecological and social and economic crises, developing of personal and social responsibility in community members. The professionals of Community Centers implement activities aimed on coping victimization, on community interaction and communities restructuring. They are working with all age and social groups in the communities, with acute crises and suicide prevention, creating mutual support mechanisms. Centres performance results in decrease of psycho-social tension and anxiety in population. Centers present successfully functioning model of social and psychological support under complicated ecological and social conditions in post soviet countries. They have accumulated unique professional and organizational experience of efficient work in, a post-catastrophe period under social and economic crisis. (author)

Empirical Bayes Credibility Models for Economic Catastrophic Losses by Regions

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jindrová Pavla

2017-01-01

Full Text Available Catastrophic events affect various regions of the world with increasing frequency and intensity. The number of catastrophic events and the amount of economic losses is varying in different world regions. Part of these losses is covered by insurance. Catastrophe events in last years are associated with increases in premiums for some lines of business. The article focus on estimating the amount of net premiums that would be needed to cover the total or insured catastrophic losses in different world regions using Bühlmann and Bühlmann-Straub empirical credibility models based on data from Sigma Swiss Re 2010-2016. The empirical credibility models have been developed to estimate insurance premiums for short term insurance contracts using two ingredients: past data from the risk itself and collateral data from other sources considered to be relevant. In this article we deal with application of these models based on the real data about number of catastrophic events and about the total economic and insured catastrophe losses in seven regions of the world in time period 2009-2015. Estimated credible premiums by world regions provide information how much money in the monitored regions will be need to cover total and insured catastrophic losses in next year.

ATR prohibits replication catastrophe by preventing global exhaustion of RPA.

Science.gov (United States)

Toledo, Luis Ignacio; Altmeyer, Matthias; Rask, Maj-Britt; Lukas, Claudia; Larsen, Dorthe Helena; Povlsen, Lou Klitgaard; Bekker-Jensen, Simon; Mailand, Niels; Bartek, Jiri; Lukas, Jiri

2013-11-21

ATR, activated by replication stress, protects replication forks locally and suppresses origin firing globally. Here, we show that these functions of ATR are mechanistically coupled. Although initially stable, stalled forks in ATR-deficient cells undergo nucleus-wide breakage after unscheduled origin firing generates an excess of single-stranded DNA that exhausts the nuclear pool of RPA. Partial reduction of RPA accelerated fork breakage, and forced elevation of RPA was sufficient to delay such "replication catastrophe" even in the absence of ATR activity. Conversely, unscheduled origin firing induced breakage of stalled forks even in cells with active ATR. Thus, ATR-mediated suppression of dormant origins shields active forks against irreversible breakage via preventing exhaustion of nuclear RPA. This study elucidates how replicating genomes avoid destabilizing DNA damage. Because cancer cells commonly feature intrinsically high replication stress, this study also provides a molecular rationale for their hypersensitivity to ATR inhibitors. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Catastrophe Theory and Caustics

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Gravesen, Jens

1983-01-01

It is shown by elementary methods that in codimension two and under the assumption that light rays are straight lines, a caustic is the catastrophe set for a time function. The general case is also discussed....

The catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome in children.

Science.gov (United States)

Go, Ellen J L; O'Neil, Kathleen M

2017-09-01

To review the difficult syndrome of catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome, emphasizing new developments in the diagnosis, pathogenesis and treatment. Few recent publications directly address pediatric catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome (CAPS). Most articles are case reports or are data from adult and pediatric registries. The major factors contributing to most pediatric catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome include infection and the presence of antiphospholipid antibodies, but complement activation also is important in creating diffuse thrombosis in the microcirculation. Treatment of the acute emergency requires anticoagulation, suppression of the hyperinflammatory state and elimination of the triggering infection. Inhibition of complement activation appears to improve outcome in limited studies, and suppression of antiphospholipid antibody formation may be important in long-term management. CAPS, an antibody-mediated diffuse thrombotic disease of microvasculature, is rare in childhood but has high mortality (33-50%). It requires prompt recognition and aggressive multimodality treatment, including anticoagulation, anti-inflammatory therapy and elimination of inciting infection and pathogenic autoantibodies.

Orthogonality catastrophe and fractional exclusion statistics

Science.gov (United States)

Ares, Filiberto; Gupta, Kumar S.; de Queiroz, Amilcar R.

2018-02-01

We show that the N -particle Sutherland model with inverse-square and harmonic interactions exhibits orthogonality catastrophe. For a fixed value of the harmonic coupling, the overlap of the N -body ground state wave functions with two different values of the inverse-square interaction term goes to zero in the thermodynamic limit. When the two values of the inverse-square coupling differ by an infinitesimal amount, the wave function overlap shows an exponential suppression. This is qualitatively different from the usual power law suppression observed in the Anderson's orthogonality catastrophe. We also obtain an analytic expression for the wave function overlaps for an arbitrary set of couplings, whose properties are analyzed numerically. The quasiparticles constituting the ground state wave functions of the Sutherland model are known to obey fractional exclusion statistics. Our analysis indicates that the orthogonality catastrophe may be valid in systems with more general kinds of statistics than just the fermionic type.

Severe catastrophes and public reactions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Osmachkin, Vitaly

2002-01-01

nuclear opposition. Economical basis of nuclear energy stagnation is in not very successful competition of nuclear engineering with fossil energy production technologies. Much money has been spent for improvement of safety of NPPs. Social roots of the opposition are linked with a bad experience of the public with demonstration of the nuclear energy- The explosion of atomic bombs, some contamination of the territories after nuclear arm tests, misfortunes with TMI-2 and Chernobyl have created a stable enmity and non-acceptance of the all connected with 'atom'. The mass media have strongly promoted the dissemination of the fear of radiation exposures. There is also an influence on that attitude the radiation protection regulation via the declaration of the linear no-threshold dependence of the radiation detriments and dose of exposure. Such concept ignores the adoptive features of all living. But modem studies have showed that protracted irradiation at the same dose is much less dangerous compared with sharp one. It could change public attitude to nuclear energy in the society. Role of nuclear communication for public informing: The reactions of public on various technological and man-made events differ significantly and are being determined not scales of catastrophes but the mental impression and a multiplication of psychological stresses in the society by mass -media. In present situation a nuclear community has to improve the contacts with the pubic, to launch more effective campaign for explanation of real adventures of nuclear power. It needs to compare the risks of climate warming and health detriments from different electricity production technologies and to show that nuclear power is a single alternative all fossil burning techniques of electricity production. It's the truth the nuclear power is a real method of fight for suppression of emission the greenhouse gases, isn't it? (author)

Paraboles et catastrophes

CERN Document Server

Thom, René

1983-01-01

René Thom, mathématicien français, membre de l'Académie des Sciences, s'est vu décerner en 1958 la médaille Field, équivalent du Prix Nobel en mathématiques, pour ses créations intellectuelles, la " théorie des catastrophes ", regard nouveau sur toutes les transformations qui adviennent de manière brusque, imprévisible, dramatique. Dans ces entretiens qui vont de la mathématique à l'embryologie, de la linguistique à l'anthropologie et à l'histoire, René Thom expose les grandes lignes de la théorie des catastrophes et passe en revue, avec un esprit à la fois critique et passionné, les grands thèmes scientifiques de notre époque, de la physique atomique à la biologie moléculaire, du " progrès " scientifique et technologique aux connexions complexes entre la société et la science. " Ce petit livre est une extraordinaire réussite en vulgarisation ". (Jean Largeault)

Catastrophe, Gender and Urban Experience, 1648–1920

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Employing a broad definition of catastrophe, this book examines how urban communities conceived, adapted to and were transformed by catastrophes. Competing views of gender figure in the telling and retelling of these trag- edies, which are mediated by myth and memory. This is a nuanced account...

Catastrophizing Interferes with Cognitive Modulation of Pain in Women with Fibromyalgia.

Science.gov (United States)

Ellingson, Laura D; Stegner, Aaron J; Schwabacher, Isaac J; Lindheimer, Jacob B; Cook, Dane B

2018-02-21

Pain modulation is a critical function of the nociceptive system that includes the ability to engage descending pain control systems to maintain a functional balance between facilitation and inhibition of incoming sensory stimuli. Dysfunctional pain modulation is associated with increased risk for chronic pain and is characteristic of fibromyalgia (FM). Catastrophizing is also common in FM. However, its influence on pain modulation is poorly understood. To determine the role of catastrophizing on central nervous system processing during pain modulation in FM via examining brain responses and pain sensitivity during an attention-distraction paradigm. Twenty FM patients and 18 healthy controls (CO) underwent functional magnetic resonance imaging while receiving pain stimuli, administered alone and during distracting cognitive tasks. Pain ratings were assessed after each stimulus. Catastrophizing was assessed with the Pain Catastrophizing Scale (PCS). The ability to modulate pain during distraction varied among FM patients and was associated with catastrophizing. This was demonstrated by significant positive relationships between PCS scores and pain ratings (P modulation did not differ between FM and CO (P > 0.05). FM patients with higher levels of catastrophizing were less able to distract themselves from pain, indicative of catastrophizing-related impairments in pain modulation. These results suggest that the tendency to catastrophize interacts with attention-resource allocation and may represent a mechanism of chronic pain exacerbation and/or maintenance. Reducing catastrophizing may improve FM symptoms via improving central nervous system regulation of pain.

Semi-classical approximation to path integrals - phases and catastrophes

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Levit, S.

1977-01-01

Problems of phases and catastrophes were encountered when trying to apply the classical S-matrix theory to the scattering phenomena in nuclear physics. The path integral formulation provided a suitable basis for the treatment of these and related problems. Within conventional mathematical language it was possible to give practical prescriptions and discuss their limitations. Since the semi-classical (stationary phase) approximation is commonly used in any application of the path integral method, the results are not restricted to the scattering problems and may be of general interest. The derivation of the uniform approximations in the energy representation should use the exact path integral expression as the starting point, rather than performing Fourier transforms on the expressions derived in the present lecture. (B.G.)

Effects produced by nuclear weapons from the medical viewpoint

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Messerschmidt, O.

1982-01-01

Recommendations are given for the protection commission of the Minister of the Interior on diagnostics and therapy of the acute radiation syndrome. In summary form, findings from the medical viewpoint are given on the biological effects of nuclear explosions - irrespective of their being produced in peace times by reactor accidents or by use of nuclear weapons in warfare. The statements on the therapy of radiation injuries are a practical aid to the experienced catastrophe physician and suggest to the still unexperienced physician to extend his training for mastering radiation injuries in catastrophes. (orig./HP) [de

Task Force on Catastrophic Antiphospholipid Syndrome (APS) and Non-criteria APS Manifestations (I): catastrophic APS, APS nephropathy and heart valve lesions.

Science.gov (United States)

Cervera, R; Tektonidou, M G; Espinosa, G; Cabral, A R; González, E B; Erkan, D; Vadya, S; Adrogué, H E; Solomon, M; Zandman-Goddard, G; Shoenfeld, Y

2011-02-01

The objectives of the 'Task Force on Catastrophic Antiphospholipid Syndrome (APS) and Non-criteria APS Manifestations' were to assess the clinical utility of the international consensus statement on classification criteria and treatment guidelines for the catastrophic APS, to identify and grade the studies that analyse the relationship between the antiphospholipid antibodies and the non-criteria APS manifestations and to present the current evidence regarding the accuracy of these non-criteria APS manifestations for the detection of patients with APS. This article summarizes the studies analysed on the catastrophic APS, APS nephropathy and heart valve lesions, and presents the recommendations elaborated by the Task Force after this analysis.

Catastrophic risks and insurance in farm-level decision making

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Ogurtsov, V.

2008-01-01

Keywords: risk perception, risk attitude, catastrophic risk, insurance, farm characteristics, farmer personal characteristics, utility-efficient programming, arable farming, dairy farming

Catastrophic risks can cause severe cash flow problems for farmers or even result into their

Predicting catastrophes of non-autonomous networks with visibility graphs and horizontal visibility

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Haicheng; Xu, Daolin; Wu, Yousheng

2018-05-01

Prediction of potential catastrophes in engineering systems is a challenging problem. We first attempt to construct a complex network to predict catastrophes of a multi-modular floating system in advance of their occurrences. Response time series of the system can be mapped into an virtual network by using visibility graph or horizontal visibility algorithm. The topology characteristics of the networks can be used to forecast catastrophes of the system. Numerical results show that there is an obvious corresponding relationship between the variation of topology characteristics and the onset of catastrophes. A Catastrophe Index (CI) is proposed as a numerical indicator to measure a qualitative change from a stable state to a catastrophic state. The two approaches, the visibility graph and horizontal visibility algorithms, are compared by using the index in the reliability analysis with different data lengths and sampling frequencies. The technique of virtual network method is potentially extendable to catastrophe predictions of other engineering systems.

Chernobyl catastrophe: Information for people living in the contaminated areas

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Borisevich, Nikolaj

2001-01-01

The radioactive blow-outs after the Chernobyl Nuclear Power Plant catastrophe reached many states. The largest amount of them (according to experts' estimations - 70%) fell out on the Belarus territory. The estimation of radioecological, medico-biological, economic and social consequences of the Chernobyl catastrophe has shown that unimaginable damage was incurred on Belarus and its territory became the zone of ecological calamity. More than 14 years have passed since the Chernobyl NPP accident but some of the problems caused by the catastrophe have not been solved. This is bound up, first of all, with a high collective dosage absorbed by the population, with difficulties in forecasting and prophylactics of remote radiological effects, with ecological and economic crisis. The consequences of the disaster greatly affect all the aspects of vital activities of the affected regions and the state as a whole. Destructive tendencies have been revealed in all spheres of the life activity of people who experienced radiation effects. The processes of social adaptation and socio-psychological support of the population inhabiting the contaminated territory and resettled as well, require considerable optimisation. Negative factors of the Chernobyl catastrophe, which are significant for human health can be divided into two groups as follows: radiation-based, directly related to influence of ionising radiation and non radiation based, related to changes in habitat and prolonged psychological stress. The specific peculiarities of psychogenic disorders caused by the catastrophe are determined by the following reasons: insufficient knowledge of radiation effects; constant apprehension for the health and well-being of themselves and their families, especially children; unexpected change of the life stereotype (forced resettlement, the break of the former life, changing the place and the character of work, etc.); the necessity of constant keeping precaution measures and prophylactic

Catastrophic avalanches and methods of their control

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

N. A. Volodicheva

2014-01-01

Full Text Available Definition of such phenomenon as “catastrophic avalanche” is presented in this arti-cle. Several situations with releases of catastrophic avalanches in mountains of Caucasus, Alps, and Central Asia are investigated. Materials of snow-avalanche ob-servations performed since 1960s at the Elbrus station of the Lomonosov Moscow State University (Central Caucasus were used for this work. Complex-valued measures of engineering protection demonstrating different efficiencies are consid-ered.

Pricing catastrophic bonds for earthquakes in Mexico

OpenAIRE

Cabrera, Brenda López

2006-01-01

After the occurrence of a natural disaster, the reconstruction can be financed with catastrophic bonds (CAT bonds) or reinsurance. For insurers, reinsurers and other corporations CAT bonds provide multi year protection without the credit risk present in reinsurance. For investors CAT bonds offer attractive returns and reduction of portfolio risk, since CAT bonds defaults are uncorrelated with defaults of other securities. As the study of natural catastrophe models plays an important role in t...

Optimal natural resources management under uncertainty with catastrophic risk

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Motoh, Tsujimura [Graduate School of Economics, Kyoto University, Yoshida-honmochi, Sakyo-ku, Kyoto 606-8501 (Japan)

2004-05-01

We examine an optimal natural resources management problem under uncertainty with catastrophic risk and investigate the optimal rate of use of a natural resource. For this purpose, we use stochastic control theory. We assume that, until a catastrophic event occurs, the stock of the natural resource is governed by a stochastic differential equation. We describe the catastrophic phenomenon as a Poisson process. From this analysis, we show the optimal rate of use of the natural resource in explicit form. Furthermore, we present comparative static results for the optimal rate of use of the natural resource.

Optimal natural resources management under uncertainty with catastrophic risk

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Motoh, Tsujimura

2004-01-01

We examine an optimal natural resources management problem under uncertainty with catastrophic risk and investigate the optimal rate of use of a natural resource. For this purpose, we use stochastic control theory. We assume that, until a catastrophic event occurs, the stock of the natural resource is governed by a stochastic differential equation. We describe the catastrophic phenomenon as a Poisson process. From this analysis, we show the optimal rate of use of the natural resource in explicit form. Furthermore, we present comparative static results for the optimal rate of use of the natural resource

Stagewise cognitive development: an application of catastrophe theory.

Science.gov (United States)

van der Maas, H L; Molenaar, P C

1992-07-01

In this article an overview is given of traditional methodological approaches to stagewise cognitive developmental research. These approaches are evaluated and integrated on the basis of catastrophe theory. In particular, catastrophe theory specifies a set of common criteria for testing the discontinuity hypothesis proposed by Piaget. Separate criteria correspond to distinct methods used in cognitive developmental research. Such criteria are, for instance, the detection of spurts in development, bimodality of test scores, and increased variability of responses during transitional periods. When a genuine stage transition is present, these criteria are expected to be satisfied. A revised catastrophe model accommodating these criteria is proposed for the stage transition in cognitive development from the preoperational to the concrete operational stage.

Widespread after-effects of nuclear war

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Teller, E.

1984-01-01

Radioactive fallout and depletion of the ozone layer, once believed catastrophic consequences of nuclear war, are now proved unimportant in comparison to immediate war damage. Today, ''nuclear winter'' is claimed to have apocalyptic effects. Uncertainties in massive smoke production and in meteorological phenomena give reason to doubt this conclusion. (author)

Mastering the nuclear dragon? Realities, phantasms and emotions in popular culture

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Michel, A.

2013-01-01

This book gives a chronological account of nuclear science and its applications against the background of major political and societal developments since the discovery of radium at the end of the 19th century. In doing so, questions relating to nuclear energy are addressed in relation to perceptions, attitudes and sentiments by the general public. The book discuss - amongst others- major advancements in nuclear science following the discovery of radium, the development of the atomic bomb and its deployment during the Second World War, nuclear armament during the post-War period, the development of peaceful applications of nuclear science with emphasis on nuclear power production thereby considering the impact of the oil crisis and the growing emphasis on renewable energy sources, the use of plutonium and proliferation issues, nuclear accidents and catastrophes, the role of nuclear power in relation to climate change, and the fate of nuclear energy after the Fukushima catastrophe.

Should catastrophic risks be included in a regulated competitive health insurance market?

Science.gov (United States)

van de Ven, W P; Schut, F T

1994-11-01

In 1988 the Dutch government launched a proposal for a national health insurance based on regulated competition. The mandatory benefits package should be offered by competing insurers and should cover both non-catastrophic risks (like hospital care, physician services and drugs) and catastrophic risks (like several forms of expensive long-term care). However, there are two arguments to exclude some of the catastrophic risks from the competitive insurance market, at least during the implementation process of the reforms. Firstly, the prospects for a workable system of risk-adjusted payments to the insurers that should take away the incentives for cream skimming are, at least during the next 5 years, more favorable for the non-catastrophic risks than for the catastrophic risks. Secondly, even if a workable system of risk-adjusted payments can be developed, the problem of quality skimping may be relevant for some of the catastrophic risks, but not for non-catastrophic risks. By 'quality skimping' we mean the reduction of the quality of care to a level which is below the minimum level that is acceptable to society. After 5 years of health care reforms in the Netherlands new insights have resulted in a growing support to confine the implementation of the reforms to the non-catastrophic risks. In drawing (and redrawing) the exact boundaries between different regulatory regimes for catastrophic and non-catastrophic risks, the expected benefits of a cost-effective substitution of care have to be weighted against the potential harm caused by cream skimming and quality skimping.

Indirect Catastrophic Injuries in Olympic Styles of Wrestling in Iran

OpenAIRE

Kordi, Ramin; Ziaee, Vahid; Rostami, Mohsen; Wallace, W. Angus

2011-01-01

Background: Data on indirect catastrophic injuries in wrestling are scarce. Objectives: To develop a profile of indirect catastrophic injuries in international styles of wrestling and to describe possible risk factors. Study Design: Retrospective case series; Level of evidence, 3. Methods: Indirect catastrophic injuries that occurred in wrestling clubs in Iran from July 1998 to June 2005 were identified by contacting several sources. The cases were retrospectively reviewed. Results: The injur...

Microtubule catastrophe and rescue.

Science.gov (United States)

Gardner, Melissa K; Zanic, Marija; Howard, Jonathon

2013-02-01

Microtubules are long cylindrical polymers composed of tubulin subunits. In cells, microtubules play an essential role in architecture and motility. For example, microtubules give shape to cells, serve as intracellular transport tracks, and act as key elements in important cellular structures such as axonemes and mitotic spindles. To accomplish these varied functions, networks of microtubules in cells are very dynamic, continuously remodeling through stochastic length fluctuations at the ends of individual microtubules. The dynamic behavior at the end of an individual microtubule is termed 'dynamic instability'. This behavior manifests itself by periods of persistent microtubule growth interrupted by occasional switching to rapid shrinkage (called microtubule 'catastrophe'), and then by switching back from shrinkage to growth (called microtubule 'rescue'). In this review, we summarize recent findings which provide new insights into the mechanisms of microtubule catastrophe and rescue, and discuss the impact of these findings in regards to the role of microtubule dynamics inside of cells. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Pain catastrophizing predicts verbal expression among children with chronic pain and their mothers

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Shelby L Langer

2016-03-01

Full Text Available This study examined intra- and inter-personal associations between pain catastrophizing and verbal expression in 70 children with recurrent abdominal pain and their mothers. Participants independently completed the Pain Catastrophizing Scale. Mothers and children then talked about the child’s pain. Speech was categorized using a linguistic analysis program. Catastrophizing was positively associated with the use of negative emotion words by both mothers and children. In addition, mothers’ catastrophizing was positively associated with both mothers’ and children’s anger word usage, whereas children’s catastrophizing was inversely associated with mothers’ anger word usage. Findings extend the literature on behavioral and interpersonal aspects of catastrophizing.

Teaching about Nuclear Disarmament. Fastback 229.

Science.gov (United States)

Becker, James, M.

Background information to help educators teach about nuclear disarmament is presented. There are six sections. The first section, "Nuclear Arms Education: Avoiding the Final Catastrophe," discusses the national priority of preparing for war, militarism as a value, and the mushroom cloud and spaceship earth as symbols of a global age. The second…

'Performative narrativity': Palestinian identity and the performance of catastrophe

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Saloul, I.

2008-01-01

The day Israel annually celebrates as its "Day of Independence" Palestinians commemorate as their day of catastrophe (al-nakba). To most Palestinians, the catastrophic loss of Palestine in 1948 represents the climactic formative event of their lives. In the aftermath of this loss, the Palestinian

The Catalan version of the Pain Catastrophizing Scale: a useful instrument to assess catastrophic thinking in whiplash patients.

Science.gov (United States)

Miró, Jordi; Nieto, Rubén; Huguet, Anna

2008-05-01

The main aims of this work were to test the psychometric properties of the Catalan version of the Pain Catastrophizing Scale (PCS) and to assess the usefulness of the scale when used with whiplash patients. This article reports results from 2 complementary studies. In the first one, the PCS was administered to 280 students and 146 chronic pain patients to examine the psychometric properties of a new Catalan version of the instrument. A confirmatory factor analysis supported a second-order structure, in which 3 second-order factors (ie, rumination, helplessness, and magnification) load in a higher-order factor (ie, catastrophizing). The reliability of the Catalan version was supported by an acceptable internal consistency and test-retest values. Validity was supported by the correlations found among the PCS and pain intensity, pain interference, and depression. The objective of the second study was to evaluate the PCS when used with whiplash patients. In this second study, 141 patients with whiplash disorders participated. In general, the psychometric properties of the PCS were found appropriate, with factor analysis supporting the structure described in patients with chronic pain. Our data suggest that the PCS is a good instrument to assess catastrophic thinking in whiplash patients. The usefulness of the PCS in whiplash disorders has been explored in this study. Results of our work show that the PCS can be a very useful tool to assess catastrophic thinking about pain in whiplash patients.

Japan Catastrophic Earthquake and Tsunami in Fukushima Daiichi NPP; Is it Beyond Design Basis Accident or a Design Deficiency and Operator Unawareness?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gaafar, M.A.; Refeat, R.M.; EL-Kady, A.A.

2012-01-01

On March 11, 2011 a catastrophic earthquake and tsunami struck the north east coast of Japan. This catastrophe damaged fully or partially the six units of the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant.Questions were raised following the aftermath, whether it is beyond design basis accident caused by severe natural event or a failure by the Japanese authorities to plan to deal with such accident. There are many indications that the Utility of Fukushima Daiichi NPP, Tokyo Electric Power Company (TEPCO), did not pay enough attention to numerous facts about the incompatibility of the site and several design defects in the plant units. In fact there are three other NPP sites nearby Fukushima Daiichi Plant (about 30 to 60 Km far from Fukushima Daiichi NPP), with different site characteristics, which survived the same catastrophic earthquake and tsunami, but they were automatically turned into a safe shutdown state. These plants sites are Fukushima Daini Plant (4 units), Onagawa Plant (3 units) and Tokai Daini (II) Plant (one unit). In this paper, the aftermath Fukushima Daiichi plant integrity is pointed out. Some facts about the site and design concerns which could have implications on the accident are discussed. The response of Japan Authority is outlined and some remarks about their actions are underlined. The impacts of this disaster on the Nuclear Power Program worldwide are also discussed.

A critical look at catastrophe risk assessments

CERN Document Server

Kent, A

2004-01-01

Recent papers by Busza et al. (BJSW) and Dar et al. (DDH) argue that astrophysical data can be used to establish bounds on the risk of a catastrophe in forthcoming collider experiments. The safety case set out by BJSW does not rely on these bounds, but on theoretical arguments, which BJSW find sufficiently compelling. However, DDH and other commentators (initially including BJSW) have suggested that the astrophysical bounds alone do give sufficient reassurance. This seems unsupportable when the bounds are expressed in terms of expected cost. For example, DDH's main bound, $p_{\\rm catastrophe} < 2 \\times 10^{-8}$, implies only that the expectation value of the number of deaths is bounded by 120. We thus reappraise the DDH and BJSW risk bounds by comparing risk policy in other areas. We find that requiring a catastrophe risk of no higher than 10^{-15} is necessary to be consistent with established policy for risk optimisation from radiation hazards, even if highly risk tolerant assumptions are made. A respec...

[Bioethics in catastrophe situations such as earthquakes].

Science.gov (United States)

León, C Francisco Javier

2012-01-01

A catastrophe of the magnitude of the earthquake and tsunami that hit Chile not long ago, forces us to raise some questions that we will try to answer from a philosophical, ethical and responsibility viewpoints. An analysis of the basic principles of bioethics is also justified. A natural catastrophe is not, by itself, moral or immoral, fair or unfair. However, its consequences could certainly be regarded as such, depending on whether they could have been prevented or mitigated. We will identify those individuals, who have the ethical responsibility to attend the victims and the ethical principles that must guide the tasks of healthcare and psychological support teams. The minimal indispensable actions to obtain an adequate social and legal protection of vulnerable people, must be defined according to international guidelines. These reflections are intended to improve the responsibility of the State and all the community, to efficiently prevent and repair the material and psychological consequences of such a catastrophe.

Pricing the property claim service (PCS) catastrophe insurance options using gamma distribution

Science.gov (United States)

Noviyanti, Lienda; Soleh, Achmad Zanbar; Setyanto, Gatot R.

2017-03-01

The catastrophic events like earthquakes, hurricanes or flooding are characteristics for some areas, a properly calculated annual premium would be closely as high as the loss insured. From an actuarial perspective, such events constitute the risk that are not insurable. On the other hand people living in such areas need protection. In order to securitize the catastrophe risk, futures or options based on a loss index could be considered. Chicago Board of Trade launched a new class of catastrophe insurance options based on new indices provided by Property Claim Services (PCS). The PCS-option is based on the Property Claim Service Index (PCS-Index). The index are used to determine and payout in writing index-based insurance derivatives. The objective of this paper is to price PCS Catastrophe Insurance Option based on PCS Catastrophe index. Gamma Distribution is used to estimate PCS Catastrophe index distribution.

Pain Catastrophizing Correlates with Early Mild Traumatic Brain Injury Outcome

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Geneviève Chaput

2016-01-01

Full Text Available Background. Identifying which patients are most likely to be at risk of chronic pain and other postconcussion symptoms following mild traumatic brain injury (MTBI is a difficult clinical challenge. Objectives. To examine the relationship between pain catastrophizing, defined as the exaggerated negative appraisal of a pain experience, and early MTBI outcome. Methods. This cross-sectional design included 58 patients diagnosed with a MTBI. In addition to medical chart review, postconcussion symptoms were assessed by self-report at 1 month (Time 1 and 8 weeks (Time 2 after MTBI. Pain severity, psychological distress, level of functionality, and pain catastrophizing were measured by self-report at Time 2. Results. The pain catastrophizing subscales of rumination, magnification, and helplessness were significantly correlated with pain severity (r=.31 to .44, number of postconcussion symptoms reported (r=.35 to .45, psychological distress (r=.57 to .67, and level of functionality (r=-.43 to -.29. Pain catastrophizing scores were significantly higher for patients deemed to be at high risk of postconcussion syndrome (6 or more symptoms reported at both Time 1 and Time 2. Conclusions. Higher levels of pain catastrophizing were related to adverse early MTBI outcomes. The early detection of pain catastrophizing may facilitate goal-oriented interventions to prevent or minimize the development of chronic pain and other postconcussion symptoms.

Catastrophic household expenditure on health in Nepal: a cross-sectional survey.

Science.gov (United States)

Saito, Eiko; Gilmour, Stuart; Rahman, Md Mizanur; Gautam, Ghan Shyam; Shrestha, Pradeep Krishna; Shibuya, Kenji

2014-10-01

To determine the incidence of - and illnesses commonly associated with - catastrophic household expenditure on health in Nepal. We did a cross-sectional population-based survey in five municipalities of Kathmandu Valley between November 2011 and January 2012. For each household surveyed, out-of-pocket spending on health in the previous 30 days that exceeded 10% of the household's total expenditure over the same period was considered to be catastrophic. We estimated the incidence and intensity of catastrophic health expenditure. We identified the illnesses most commonly associated with such expenditure using a Poisson regression model and assessed the distribution of expenditure by economic quintile of households using the concentration index. Overall, 284 of the 1997 households studied in Kathmandu, i.e. 13.8% after adjustment by sampling weight, reported catastrophic health expenditure in the 30 days before the survey. After adjusting for confounders, this expenditure was found to be associated with injuries, particularly those resulting from road traffic accidents. Catastrophic expenditure by households in the poorest quintile were associated with at least one episode of diabetes, asthma or heart disease. In an urban area of Nepal, catastrophic household expenditure on health was mostly associated with injuries and noncommunicable diseases such as diabetes and asthma. Throughout Nepal, interventions for the control and management of noncommunicable diseases and the prevention of road traffic accidents should be promoted. A phased introduction of health insurance should also reduce the incidence of catastrophic household expenditure.

Genetic consequences of nuclear war

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Oftedal, P.

1986-01-01

In the aftermath of a nuclear war, genetic effects may appear trivial in comparison with the enormity of the catastrophic development in the survivors' health and the environment. Gross effects are immediately or subtly demonstrable on the basis of diverse war scenarios. On the other hand, in a great number of organisms, genetic effects of radiation have been shown to occur according to a no-threshold dose-effect curve, thus implying that effects may be found even in situations and population groups where other direct effects are small. The discussions on the effects of nuclear war have indicated that whatever sector of effects is focused on, closer examination has, in each case - be it treatment of casualties, effects on climate, or effects on world trade - led to a picture of possible and often probable catastrophic collapse

Catastrophic Failure and Critical Scaling Laws of Fiber Bundle Material

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Shengwang Hao

2017-05-01

Full Text Available This paper presents a spring-fiber bundle model used to describe the failure process induced by energy release in heterogeneous materials. The conditions that induce catastrophic failure are determined by geometric conditions and energy equilibrium. It is revealed that the relative rates of deformation of, and damage to the fiber bundle with respect to the boundary controlling displacement ε0 exhibit universal power law behavior near the catastrophic point, with a critical exponent of −1/2. The proportion of the rate of response with respect to acceleration exhibits a linear relationship with increasing displacement in the vicinity of the catastrophic point. This allows for the prediction of catastrophic failure immediately prior to failure by extrapolating the trajectory of this relationship as it asymptotes to zero. Monte Carlo simulations are completed and these two critical scaling laws are confirmed.

Nuclear energy: biological effects and environmental impact

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Boonefaes, M.

1987-01-01

This thesis is concerned with the large development of nuclear power plants and the recent nuclear catastrophe which has made clear how the hazards resulting from radioactivity affect public health and the environment. Environmental effects of nuclear power plants operating in normal conditions are small, but to obtain nuclear power plants of reduced radioactivity, optimization of their design, construction, operation and waste processing plays a decisive role. Biological effects of ionizing radiations and environmental impacts of Nuclear Power plants are developed [fr

Computer aid in rescue organisation on site in case of catastrophic situation on nuclear plant

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Teissier, M.

1992-01-01

The rescue organisation in case of catastrophic situation is based on known principles: creation of medical buffer structures between hazard spot where injured people are being collected and rear hospitals, triage of victims as urgent casualties. We will propose computer aid in order to value the time used to prepare and evacuate all the victims from the site, knowing inventory of available means, waiting periods and lengths of intervention, types and number of victims. Thus, it is possible to optimize the former organisation, qualitatively and quantitatively to improve efficiency in rescuing operations. (author)

The Effectiveness of Catastrophe Bonds in Portfolio Diversification

OpenAIRE

Mariani, Massimo; Amoruso, Paola

2016-01-01

The rapid growth of catastrophe bonds in financial markets is due to increasing environmental disasters and consequent economic losses, barely covered by insurance and reinsurance companies. These securities represent an effective solution, allowing the risk transfer to the capital market. The objective of this paper is to prove real advantages of the investor who operates in this market segment, in terms of portfolio diversification. The present work indeed shows how investing in catastrophe...

An application of Mean Escape Time and metapopulation on forestry catastrophe insurance

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Jiangcheng; Zhang, Chunmin; Liu, Jifa; Li, Zhen; Yang, Xuan

2018-04-01

A forestry catastrophe insurance model due to forestry pest infestations and disease epidemics is developed by employing metapopulation dynamics and statistics properties of Mean Escape Time (MET). The probability of outbreak of forestry catastrophe loss and the catastrophe loss payment time with MET are respectively investigated. Forestry loss data in China is used for model simulation. Experimental results are concluded as: (1) The model with analytical results is shown to be a better fit; (2) Within the condition of big area of patches and structure of patches, high system factor, low extinction rate, high multiplicative noises, and additive noises with a high cross-correlated strength range, an outbreak of forestry catastrophe loss or catastrophe loss payment due to forestry pest infestations and disease epidemics could occur; (3) An optimal catastrophe loss payment time MET due to forestry pest infestations and disease epidemics can be identified by taking proper value of multiplicative noises and limits the additive noises on a low range of value, and cross-correlated strength at a high range of value.

Purchase of Catastrophe Insurance by Dutch Dairy and Arable Farmers

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Ogurtsov, V.; Asseldonk, van M.A.P.M.; Huirne, R.B.M.

2009-01-01

This article analyzed the impact of risk perception, risk attitude, and other farmer personal and farm characteristics on the actual purchase of catastrophe insurance by Dutch dairy and arable farmers. The specific catastrophe insurance types considered were hail–fire–storm insurance for buildings,

Investigation of risks and possible ecological and economic damages from large-scale natural and man-induced catastrophes in ecology-hazard regions of Central Asia and Caucasus

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Valyaev, A.N.; Kazakov, S.V.; Stepanets, O.V.; Solodukhin, V.P.; Petrov, V.A.; Aitmatov, I.T.; Aitmatova, D.T.; Tsitskishvili, M.S.; Pyuskyulyan, K.; Gevorgyan, R.G.; Aleksanyan, G.M.; Guliyev, I.S.

2005-01-01

Full text: Various threats to civilization such as natural and man-induced catastrophes, international terrorism, ecological imbalance, global climate change and others hazards have been recently increased in number. Today catastrophic processes are notable for a high degree of organization The humankind has faced the majority of hazards for the first time; therefore, there are no analogues and recipes to be used for their solving. Catastrophe risk have increased so much and joint efforts of the entire world immunity are required. One of the most effective ways to solve the issue can be estimation of risks and ecological-economic damages from catastrophes. Here we pay attention to the main regions, having the high seismic activities, where it is possible to stimulate natural calamities in this way or cause man-induced catastrophes with huge negative effects of international scale in Central Asia and Caucasus: Uranium, antimony and mercury tailing storages in Tian-Shan mountains. The possible terrorism acts here create the serious danger for Russian and USA military air bases, functioned near large Kyrgyzstan capital Bishkek city. The large Hydroelectric Stations with their huge dams and reservoirs, located near big industrial cities, different natural mines tailing storages, including Semipalatinsk Nuclear Test Polygon in East Kazakhstan

Pediatric catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome: descriptive analysis of 45 patients from the "CAPS Registry".

Science.gov (United States)

Berman, Horacio; Rodríguez-Pintó, Ignasi; Cervera, Ricard; Gregory, Simone; de Meis, Ernesto; Rodrigues, Carlos Ewerton Maia; Aikawa, Nádia Emi; de Carvalho, Jozélio Freire; Springer, Janusz; Niedzwiecki, Maciej; Espinosa, Gerard

2014-02-01

Given the lack of information about catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome (APS) in pediatric patients, the objective of the current study was to describe the clinical characteristics, laboratory features, treatment, and outcome of pediatric patients with catastrophic APS and compare them with the adult patients with catastrophic APS. We identified patients who were under 18years of age at time of catastrophic APS diagnosis included in the international registry of patients with catastrophic APS (CAPS Registry). Their main demographic and clinical characteristics, laboratory features, treatment, and outcome were described and compared with those of adult patients with catastrophic APS. From the 446 patients included in the CAPS Registry as of May 2013, 45 (10.3%) patients developed 46 catastrophic events before 18years of age (one patient presented two episodes). Overall, 32 (71.1%) patients were female and the mean age was 11.5±4.6years (range, 3months-18years). A total of 31 (68.9%) patients suffered from primary APS and 13 (28.9%) from systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE). The main differences between the two groups of patients were the higher prevalence of infections as precipitating factor for catastrophic event in the pediatric population (60.9% versus 26.8% in the adult population, p<0.001) and of peripheral vessel thrombosis (52.2% versus 34.3%, p=0.017). In addition, catastrophic APS was the first manifestation of APS more frequently in pediatric patients (86.6% versus 45.2%, p<0.001). Interestingly, pediatric patients showed a trend of lower mortality, although the difference was not statistically significant (26.1% versus 40.2%; odds ratio, 1.9; 95% confidence interval, 0.96-3.79; p=0.063). No differences were found neither in the laboratory features nor in the isolated or combination treatments between groups. Catastrophic APS in pediatric patients is a rare disease. There are minimal differences in the clinical and laboratory features, treatment, and

Protocols of a catastrophe

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Stscherbak, J.

1988-01-01

In unusually frank terms the author, a journalist and epidemiologist, describes the catastrophe of Chernobyl as the 'most pathetic and important' experience of the Soviet people after World War II. Documents, interviews and statements of persons concerned trace the disaster of those days that surpasses imagination and describe how individual persons witnessed the coming true of visions of terror. (orig./HSCH) [de

Cosmic Catastrophes

Science.gov (United States)

Wheeler, J. Craig

2014-08-01

Preface; 1. Setting the stage: star formation and hydrogen burning in single stars; 2. Stellar death: the inexorable grip of gravity; 3. Dancing with stars: binary stellar evolution; 4. Accretion disks: flat stars; 5. White Dwarfs: quantum dots; 6. Supernovae: stellar catastrophes; 7. Supernova 1987A: lessons and enigmas; 8. Neutron stars: atoms with attitude; 9. Black holes in theory: into the abyss; 10. Black holes in fact: exploring the reality; 11. Gamma-ray bursts, black holes and the universe: long, long ago and far, far away; 12. Supernovae and the universe; 13. Worm holes and time machines: tunnels in space and time; 14. Beyond: the frontiers; Index.

Medical and radioecological consequences of the Chernobyl catastrophe in Western Europe

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Frenzel, Ch.; Llengfelder, E.

2016-01-01

Full text: The catastrophe at the unit 4 of the Chernobyl Nuclear Power Plant in the Ukrainian SSR which occurred on 26 April 1986, was the most serious accident in the history of nuclear industry and the civil use of nuclear energy until this time. Initial explosions destroyed the reactor completely. During about 10 days, large amounts of radioactive material were released to the western part of Soviet Union as well as to all European countries. 25 years later in March 2011, the next nuclear disaster at a level of INES 7 occurred at the Fukushima Daiichi Site in Japan, where 4 reactor units were destroyed by explosions and nuclear melt down processes. Compared with Chernobyl, a larger amount of radioactivity was released in Fukushima. After Chernobyl, the majority of the radionuclide depositions affected the CIS countries. Due to continuously changing of wind directions and weather conditions during the 10 days of release of radioactivity, the radionuclide distribution and deposition was very inhomogeneous not only in the CIS countries, but even at far distances as in Germany, Scandinavia , the north of Scotland and many other countries. The former Secretary-General of the United Nations, Kofi Annan, has repeatedly placed particular emphasis on the fact that millions of people continue to be directly affected by the consequences of the Chernobyl accident, including acute suffering and continuing health disorders, and that this disaster is a matter of global concern. The most affected countries by the extent of radionuclide deposition show since years the incidence of cancer and other disorders of thyroid as well as many other serious health effects. After Chernobyl, nuclear disasters will happen again – as has been verified in Fukushima - in one of the more than 440 nuclear power stations worldwide. Most of them are located in areas with a population density several fold greater than in the case of Chernobyl. If we do not know the past, we will not be able to

Concrete ensemble Kalman filters with rigorous catastrophic filter divergence.

Science.gov (United States)

Kelly, David; Majda, Andrew J; Tong, Xin T

2015-08-25

The ensemble Kalman filter and ensemble square root filters are data assimilation methods used to combine high-dimensional, nonlinear dynamical models with observed data. Ensemble methods are indispensable tools in science and engineering and have enjoyed great success in geophysical sciences, because they allow for computationally cheap low-ensemble-state approximation for extremely high-dimensional turbulent forecast models. From a theoretical perspective, the dynamical properties of these methods are poorly understood. One of the central mysteries is the numerical phenomenon known as catastrophic filter divergence, whereby ensemble-state estimates explode to machine infinity, despite the true state remaining in a bounded region. In this article we provide a breakthrough insight into the phenomenon, by introducing a simple and natural forecast model that transparently exhibits catastrophic filter divergence under all ensemble methods and a large set of initializations. For this model, catastrophic filter divergence is not an artifact of numerical instability, but rather a true dynamical property of the filter. The divergence is not only validated numerically but also proven rigorously. The model cleanly illustrates mechanisms that give rise to catastrophic divergence and confirms intuitive accounts of the phenomena given in past literature.

Improvement of the plan of measures for cases of catastrophes corresponding to radiological accidents

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jerez Vegueria, Pablo F.; Lopez Forteza; Yamil; Diaz Guerra, Pedro I.

2003-01-01

In the year 1988 the Plan of Measures for Cases of Catastrophe (PMCC) it was focused basically to the Central Electronuclear of Juragua and the Center of Investigations Nuclear both in construction in that moment. In Cuba, with the Ordinance Law Not. 170 of the System of Civil Defense of 1997 assign the EMNDC the responsibility for the address and coordination of the material resources and humans to make in front of any catastrophe type, including the emergencies radiological. However the radiological events that could happen in rest of those practical with ionizing radiations that were carried out in the country they were not contemplated in the old conception of planning of emergency of the PMCC. In the year 2001 the CNSN and EMNDC begin a revision of the national planning from the answer to radiological emergencies developing new conceptions of planning, preparation and answer to radiological emergencies using for it categories of planning recommended by the IAEA in new technical documents emitted to the effect. Presently work is exposed the new philosophy of planning and national answer that it sustains the current Annex radiological Accidents of the PMCC

Community resilience and decision theory challenges for catastrophic events.

Science.gov (United States)

Cox, Louis Anthony

2012-11-01

Extreme and catastrophic events pose challenges for normative models of risk management decision making. They invite development of new methods and principles to complement existing normative decision and risk analysis. Because such events are rare, it is difficult to learn about them from experience. They can prompt both too little concern before the fact, and too much after. Emotionally charged and vivid outcomes promote probability neglect and distort risk perceptions. Aversion to acting on uncertain probabilities saps precautionary action; moral hazard distorts incentives to take care; imperfect learning and social adaptation (e.g., herd-following, group-think) complicate forecasting and coordination of individual behaviors and undermine prediction, preparation, and insurance of catastrophic events. Such difficulties raise substantial challenges for normative decision theories prescribing how catastrophe risks should be managed. This article summarizes challenges for catastrophic hazards with uncertain or unpredictable frequencies and severities, hard-to-envision and incompletely described decision alternatives and consequences, and individual responses that influence each other. Conceptual models and examples clarify where and why new methods are needed to complement traditional normative decision theories for individuals and groups. For example, prospective and retrospective preferences for risk management alternatives may conflict; procedures for combining individual beliefs or preferences can produce collective decisions that no one favors; and individual choices or behaviors in preparing for possible disasters may have no equilibrium. Recent ideas for building "disaster-resilient" communities can complement traditional normative decision theories, helping to meet the practical need for better ways to manage risks of extreme and catastrophic events. © 2012 Society for Risk Analysis.

Dynamical systems V bifurcation theory and catastrophe theory

CERN Document Server

1994-01-01

Bifurcation theory and catastrophe theory are two of the best known areas within the field of dynamical systems. Both are studies of smooth systems, focusing on properties that seem to be manifestly non-smooth. Bifurcation theory is concerned with the sudden changes that occur in a system when one or more parameters are varied. Examples of such are familiar to students of differential equations, from phase portraits. Moreover, understanding the bifurcations of the differential equations that describe real physical systems provides important information about the behavior of the systems. Catastrophe theory became quite famous during the 1970's, mostly because of the sensation caused by the usually less than rigorous applications of its principal ideas to "hot topics", such as the characterization of personalities and the difference between a "genius" and a "maniac". Catastrophe theory is accurately described as singularity theory and its (genuine) applications. The authors of this book, the first printing of w...

Effects of Cognitive-Behavioral Therapy (CBT) on Brain Connectivity Supporting Catastrophizing in Fibromyalgia.

Science.gov (United States)

Lazaridou, Asimina; Kim, Jieun; Cahalan, Christine M; Loggia, Marco L; Franceschelli, Olivia; Berna, Chantal; Schur, Peter; Napadow, Vitaly; Edwards, Robert R

2017-03-01

Fibromyalgia (FM) is a chronic, common pain disorder characterized by hyperalgesia. A key mechanism by which cognitive-behavioral therapy (CBT) fosters improvement in pain outcomes is via reductions in hyperalgesia and pain-related catastrophizing, a dysfunctional set of cognitive-emotional processes. However, the neural underpinnings of these CBT effects are unclear. Our aim was to assess CBT's effects on the brain circuitry underlying hyperalgesia in FM patients, and to explore the role of treatment-associated reduction in catastrophizing as a contributor to normalization of pain-relevant brain circuitry and clinical improvement. In total, 16 high-catastrophizing FM patients were enrolled in the study and randomized to 4 weeks of individual treatment with either CBT or a Fibromyalgia Education (control) condition. Resting state functional magnetic resonance imaging scans evaluated functional connectivity between key pain-processing brain regions at baseline and posttreatment. Clinical outcomes were assessed at baseline, posttreatment, and 6-month follow-up. Catastrophizing correlated with increased resting state functional connectivity between S1 and anterior insula. The CBT group showed larger reductions (compared with the education group) in catastrophizing at posttreatment (PCBT produced significant reductions in both pain and catastrophizing at the 6-month follow-up (PCBT group also showed reduced resting state connectivity between S1 and anterior/medial insula at posttreatment; these reductions in resting state connectivity were associated with concurrent treatment-related reductions in catastrophizing. The results add to the growing support for the clinically important associations between S1-insula connectivity, clinical pain, and catastrophizing, and suggest that CBT may, in part via reductions in catastrophizing, help to normalize pain-related brain responses in FM.

Catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome mimicking a malignant pancreatic tumour--a case report

NARCIS (Netherlands)

van Wissen, S.; Bastiaansen, B. A. J.; Stroobants, A. K.; van den Dool, E. J.; Idu, M. M.; Levi, M. [=Marcel M.; Stroes, E. S. G.

2008-01-01

The catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome is characterised by rapid onset thromboses, often resistant to conventional anticoagulant treatment, and resulting in life threatening multiple organ dysfunction. The diagnosis of catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome may be difficult, predominantly due to

Fukushima Daiichi: implications for carbon-free energy, nuclear nonproliferation, and community resilience.

Science.gov (United States)

Hall, Howard L

2011-07-01

Implications of the nuclear power plant accidents at Fukushima Daiichi are explored in this commentary. In addition to questions of nuclear reactor regulatory standards, broader implications on noncarbon-emitting energy production, nuclear nonproliferation objectives, and community resilience and emergency response against catastrophic events are explored. Copyright © 2011 SETAC.

Tackling The Global Challenge: Humanitarian Catastrophes

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Kenneth V. Iserson

2014-03-01

Full Text Available “Humanitarian catastrophes,” conflicts and calamities generating both widespread human suffering and destructive events, require a wide range of emergency resources. This paper answers a number of questions that humanitarian catastrophes generate: Why and how do the most-developed countries—those with the resources, capabilities, and willingness to help—intervene in specific types of disasters? What ethical and legal guidelines shape our interventions? How well do we achieve our goals? It then suggests a number of changes to improve humanitarian responses, including better NGO-government cooperation, increased research on the best disaster response methods, clarification of the criteria and roles for humanitarian (military interventions, and development of post-2015 Millennium Development Goals with more accurate progress measures. [West J Emerg Med. 2014;15(2:231–240.

Diffusion-based neuromodulation can eliminate catastrophic forgetting in simple neural networks

Science.gov (United States)

Clune, Jeff

2017-01-01

A long-term goal of AI is to produce agents that can learn a diversity of skills throughout their lifetimes and continuously improve those skills via experience. A longstanding obstacle towards that goal is catastrophic forgetting, which is when learning new information erases previously learned information. Catastrophic forgetting occurs in artificial neural networks (ANNs), which have fueled most recent advances in AI. A recent paper proposed that catastrophic forgetting in ANNs can be reduced by promoting modularity, which can limit forgetting by isolating task information to specific clusters of nodes and connections (functional modules). While the prior work did show that modular ANNs suffered less from catastrophic forgetting, it was not able to produce ANNs that possessed task-specific functional modules, thereby leaving the main theory regarding modularity and forgetting untested. We introduce diffusion-based neuromodulation, which simulates the release of diffusing, neuromodulatory chemicals within an ANN that can modulate (i.e. up or down regulate) learning in a spatial region. On the simple diagnostic problem from the prior work, diffusion-based neuromodulation 1) induces task-specific learning in groups of nodes and connections (task-specific localized learning), which 2) produces functional modules for each subtask, and 3) yields higher performance by eliminating catastrophic forgetting. Overall, our results suggest that diffusion-based neuromodulation promotes task-specific localized learning and functional modularity, which can help solve the challenging, but important problem of catastrophic forgetting. PMID:29145413

Diffusion-based neuromodulation can eliminate catastrophic forgetting in simple neural networks.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Roby Velez

Full Text Available A long-term goal of AI is to produce agents that can learn a diversity of skills throughout their lifetimes and continuously improve those skills via experience. A longstanding obstacle towards that goal is catastrophic forgetting, which is when learning new information erases previously learned information. Catastrophic forgetting occurs in artificial neural networks (ANNs, which have fueled most recent advances in AI. A recent paper proposed that catastrophic forgetting in ANNs can be reduced by promoting modularity, which can limit forgetting by isolating task information to specific clusters of nodes and connections (functional modules. While the prior work did show that modular ANNs suffered less from catastrophic forgetting, it was not able to produce ANNs that possessed task-specific functional modules, thereby leaving the main theory regarding modularity and forgetting untested. We introduce diffusion-based neuromodulation, which simulates the release of diffusing, neuromodulatory chemicals within an ANN that can modulate (i.e. up or down regulate learning in a spatial region. On the simple diagnostic problem from the prior work, diffusion-based neuromodulation 1 induces task-specific learning in groups of nodes and connections (task-specific localized learning, which 2 produces functional modules for each subtask, and 3 yields higher performance by eliminating catastrophic forgetting. Overall, our results suggest that diffusion-based neuromodulation promotes task-specific localized learning and functional modularity, which can help solve the challenging, but important problem of catastrophic forgetting.

Laboratory tests of catastrophic disruption of rotating bodies

Science.gov (United States)

Morris, A. J. W.; Burchell, M. J.

2017-11-01

The results of catastrophic disruption experiments on static and rotating targets are reported. The experiments used cement spheres of diameter 10 cm as the targets. Impacts were by mm sized stainless steel spheres at speeds of between 1 and 7.75 km s-1. Energy densities (Q) in the targets ranged from 7 to 2613 J kg-1. The experiments covered both the cratering and catastrophic disruption regimes. For static, i.e. non-rotating targets the critical energy density for disruption (Q*, the value of Q when the largest surviving target fragment has a mass equal to one half of the pre-impact target mass) was Q* = 1447 ± 90 J kg-1. For rotating targets (median rotation frequency of 3.44 Hz) we found Q* = 987 ± 349 J kg-1, a reduction of 32% in the mean value. This lower value of Q* for rotating targets was also accompanied by a larger scatter on the data, hence the greater uncertainty. We suggest that in some cases the rotating targets behaved as static targets, i.e. broke up with the same catastrophic disruption threshold, but in other cases the rotation helped the break up causing a lower catastrophic disruption threshold, hence both the lower value of Q* and the larger scatter on the data. The fragment mass distributions after impact were similar in both the static and rotating target experiments with similar slopes.

Pricing Zero-Coupon Catastrophe Bonds Using EVT with Doubly Stochastic Poisson Arrivals

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Zonggang Ma

2017-01-01

Full Text Available The frequency and severity of climate abnormal change displays an irregular upward cycle as global warming intensifies. Therefore, this paper employs a doubly stochastic Poisson process with Black Derman Toy (BDT intensity to describe the catastrophic characteristics. By using the Property Claim Services (PCS loss index data from 2001 to 2010 provided by the US Insurance Services Office (ISO, the empirical result reveals that the BDT arrival rate process is superior to the nonhomogeneous Poisson and lognormal intensity process due to its smaller RMSE, MAE, MRPE, and U and larger E and d. Secondly, to depict extreme features of catastrophic risks, this paper adopts the Peak Over Threshold (POT in extreme value theory (EVT to characterize the tail characteristics of catastrophic loss distribution. And then the loss distribution is analyzed and assessed using a quantile-quantile (QQ plot to visually check whether the PCS index observations meet the generalized Pareto distribution (GPD assumption. Furthermore, this paper derives a pricing formula for zero-coupon catastrophe bonds with a stochastic interest rate environment and aggregate losses generated by a compound doubly stochastic Poisson process under the forward measure. Finally, simulation results verify pricing model predictions and show how catastrophic risks and interest rate risk affect the prices of zero-coupon catastrophe bonds.

Financing Losses from Catastrophic Risks

Science.gov (United States)

2008-11-01

often held in the form of bonds, the interest on which is subject to corporate income tax , which reduces the net earnings to each insurer’s shareholders...course; it is a basic feature of the corporate income tax . But, as explained above, catastrophe insurance is distinguished from other types of

INEX 5 - General information. INEX 5 Exercise on Notification, Communication and Interfaces Related to Catastrophic Events Involving Radiation or Radiological Materials

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Okyar, Halil Burcin; Lazo, Ted

2014-01-01

The INEX series of international nuclear emergency exercises, organised under the OECD Nuclear Energy Agency (NEA), has proven successful in testing, investigating and improving the arrangements for responding to nuclear accidents and radiological emergencies at the national and international level. Previous INEX exercises focussed largely on national and international aspects of early phase management of emergencies at nuclear power plants and more recently, in INEX 4, on issues in consequence management and transition to recovery in response to malicious acts involving the release of radioactive materials in an urban setting. Since the events at the Fukushima Nuclear Power Plant, it has been recognised that notification, communication, and identifying and obtaining resources during catastrophic events can be difficult and the need for established protocols, policies, and procedures among and between country entities is critical for minimizing negative impacts. Therefore, the benefit and goal of INEX 5 is to provide a basis for enhancing national and international emergency management arrangements related to notification, communication and obtaining resources through the exchange of exercise outcomes and experiences from participating countries, in order to identify good practice and common issues to be addressed. INEX 5 will address emergency management aspects of notification, communication and interfaces between and among country and international organizations. INEX 5 is set up as a table top exercise with three levels of discussion for participants (prior to a release, recognizing/validating a release, and impacts to the radiological event from a catastrophic natural event). Countries can develop additional materials to expand this table top to a full field exercise if preferred. Prior to initiation of the table top, participants will be provided clear guidance about how the exercise will be conducted. Because this exercise may involve government agencies and

Catastrophizing and Depressive Symptoms as Prospective Predictors of Outcomes Following Total Knee Replacement

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Robert R Edwards

2009-01-01

Full Text Available Several recent reports suggest that pain-related catastrophizing is a risk factor for poor acute pain outcomes following surgical interventions. However, it has been less clear whether levels of catastrophizing influence longer-term postoperative outcomes. Data were analyzed from a relatively small number (n=43 of patients who underwent total knee replacement and were followed for 12 months after their surgery. Previous research has suggested that high levels of both catastrophizing and depression are associated with elevated acute postoperative pain complaints among patients undergoing knee surgery. In this sample, catastrophizing and depression at each of the assessment points were studied as prospective predictors of pain (both global pain ratings and pain at night at the subsequent assessment point over the course of one year. The predictive patterns differed somewhat across measures of pain reporting; depressive symptoms were unique predictors of greater global pain complaints, while catastrophizing was a specific and unique predictor of elevated nighttime pain. While surgical outcomes following total knee replacement are, on average, quite good, a significant minority of patients continue to experience long-term pain. The present findings suggest that high levels of catastrophizing and depression may promote enhanced pain levels, indicating that interventions designed to reduce catastrophizing and depressive symptoms may have the potential to further improve joint replacement outcomes.

Is solar riskier than nuclear

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Inhaber, H.

1981-01-01

Risk to human health has become one of the prime considerations in choosing energy systems, if it has not already overtaken economic cost. Accidents at reactors and collapses of dams all capture public attention. But are they the total risk of energy systems. Just as the cost of any article is made up of a number of sources, so the total risk of an energy system has many origins. The author lists these as: raw materials and fuel production, transportation (all applications), component fabrication, plant construction, operation and maintenance, waste disposition and deactivation and public health risk. While it is impossible to state with certainty that these sources of risk are the only ones, they are the major considerations in most risk studies. Most of these listed risk sources seem to be of non-catastrophic origin, i.e., accidents or illnesses that occur one at a time. Even for systems like nuclear power and hydroelectricity, which receive considerable publicity about real or potential catastrophies, the proportion of catastrophic (as meaured by historical statistics) to non-catastrophic risk is very small. As a result of the risk analysis philosophy described in this article, the author concludes that the risk in total man-days lost is least for energy from natural gas, next least from nuclear energy, greatest from coal, next greatest from oil, with all other sources between these limits

Thermal catastrophe in the plasma sheet boundary layer

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Smith, R.A.; Goertz, C.K.; Grossmann, W.

1986-01-01

This letter presents a first step towards a substorm model including particle heating and transport in the plasma sheet boundary layer (PSBL). The heating mechanism discussed is resonant absorption of Alfven waves. For some assumed MHD perturbation incident from the tail lobes onto the plasma sheet, the local heating rate in the PSBL has the form of a resonance function of the one-fluid plasma temperature. Balancing the local heating by convective transport of the heated plasma toward the central plasma sheet, and ''equation of state'' is found for the steady-state PSBL whose solution has the form of a mathematical catastrophe: at a critical value of a parameter containing the incident power flux, the local density, and the convection velocity, the equilibrium temperature jumps discontinuously. Associating this temperature increase with the abrupt onset of the substorm expansion phase, the catastrophe model indicates at least three ways in which the onset may be triggered. Several other consequences related to substorm dynamics are suggested by the simple catastrophe model

Chernobyl Nuclear Catastrophe and the High Risk Potential for Mental Retardation.

Science.gov (United States)

Holowinsky, Ivan Z.

1993-01-01

This report considers potential effects of the 1986 nuclear explosion at the Chernobyl (Ukraine) nuclear reactor. Approximately 17 million people, of whom 2.5 million were below the age of 5, are thought to have suffered some radioactive contamination. Many of these children are at high risk for mental retardation and learning disorders.…

The atmospheric and climatic consequences of nuclear war

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sagan, C.

1984-01-01

The author discusses his recent research that has uncovered the fact that nuclear war may carry in its wake a climatic catastrophe, which he calls ''nuclear winter.'' He says the effects of nuclear war would not be restricted to the combatant nations. Agriculture in the Northern Hemisphere would be devasted by even a ''small'' nuclear war. The propagating ecological consequences all over the Earth are likely to be severe. The Southern Hemisphere will be cold and dark. Global arsenals, now about twenty times the nuclear winter threshold, are growing

Forecasting giant, catastrophic slope collapse: lessons from Vajont, Northern Italy

Science.gov (United States)

Kilburn, Christopher R. J.; Petley, David N.

2003-08-01

Rapid, giant landslides, or sturzstroms, are among the most powerful natural hazards on Earth. They have minimum volumes of ˜10 6-10 7 m 3 and, normally preceded by prolonged intervals of accelerating creep, are produced by catastrophic and deep-seated slope collapse (loads ˜1-10 MPa). Conventional analyses attribute rapid collapse to unusual mechanisms, such as the vaporization of ground water during sliding. Here, catastrophic collapse is related to self-accelerating rock fracture, common in crustal rocks at loads ˜1-10 MPa and readily catalysed by circulating fluids. Fracturing produces an abrupt drop in resisting stress. Measured stress drops in crustal rock account for minimum sturzstrom volumes and rapid collapse accelerations. Fracturing also provides a physical basis for quantitatively forecasting catastrophic slope failure.

Management of the high-level nuclear power facilities

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Preda, Marin

2003-05-01

This thesis approaches current issues in the management of the high power nuclear facilities and as such it appears to be important particularly for nuclear power plant operation topics. Of special interest are the failure events entailing possible catastrophic situations. The contents is structured onto ten chapters. The first chapter describes the operation regimes of the nuclear high power facilities. Highlighted here are the thesis scope and the original features of the work. The second chapter deals with operational policies developed in order to ensure the preventive maintenance of the nuclear installations. Also managing structures are described devoted to practical warranting the equipment safety function of non-classical power stations. In the third chapter cases of nuclear accidents are analyzed especially stressing the probabilistic risk and the operation regimes having in view the elimination of catastrophic events. In the fourth and fifth chapters the control of nuclear radiation emission is treated focusing the quality issue of nuclear installations required to avoid hazardous effects at level of nuclear reactor operation stage. At the same time set of operational measures is given here for preventing risks, catastrophes and chaotic situations. The chapter five presents both theoretical and practical approaches of the nuclear reactor core management concerning particularly the fuel testing, the water primary system and the quality of the involved equipment. In the sixth and seventh chapters issues of risk-quality correlations are approached as well as the structure of expert systems for monitoring the operational regimes of nuclear facilities. The efficiency of the power systems with nuclear injection is discussed and some original ideas developed in this work are evidenced in the eighth and ninth chapters. Presented are here both the operational principles and models of raising the efficiency of the interconnected nuclear stations and prices' policy

Catastrophizing and perceived injustice: risk factors for the transition to chronicity after whiplash injury.

Science.gov (United States)

Sullivan, Michael J L; Adams, Heather; Martel, Marc-Olivier; Scott, Whitney; Wideman, Timothy

2011-12-01

The article will summarize research that has supported the role of pain catastrophizing and perceived injustice as risk factors for problematic recovery after whiplash injury. This article focuses on two psychological variables that have been shown to impact on recovery trajectories after whiplash injury; namely pain catastrophizing and perceived injustice. Research has shown that psychological variables play a role in determining the trajectory of recovery after whiplash injury. This article will focus on two psychological variables that have been shown to impact on recovery trajectories after whiplash injury; namely pain catastrophizing and perceived injustice. The article will summarize research that has supported the role of pain catastrophizing and perceived injustice as risk factors for problematic recovery after whiplash injury. Several investigations have shown that measures of catastrophizing and perceived injustice prospectively predict problematic trajectories of recovery after whiplash injury. Basic research points to the potential roles of expectancies, attention, coping and endogenous opioid dysregulation as possible avenues through which catastrophizing might heighten the probability of the persistence of pain after whiplash injury. Although research has yet to systematically address the mechanisms by which perceived injustice might contribute to prolonged disability in individuals with whiplash injuries, there are grounds for suggesting the potential contributions of catastrophizing, pain behavior and anger. A challenge for future research will be the development and evaluation of risk factor-targeted interventions aimed at reducing catastrophizing and perceived injustice to improve recovery trajectories after whiplash injury.

Catastrophizing and Causal Beliefs in Whiplash

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Buitenhuis, J.; de Jong, P. J.; Jaspers, J. P. C.; Groothoff, J. W.

2008-01-01

Study Design. Prospective cohort study. Objective. This study investigates the role of pain catastrophizing and causal beliefs with regard to severity and persistence of neck complaints after motor vehicle accidents. Summary of Background Data. In previous research on low back pain, somatoform

The ultimate nuclear accident

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Abdus Salam, A.

1988-01-01

The estimated energy equivalent of Chernobyl explosion was the 1/150 th of the explosive energy equivalent of atomic bomb dropped on Hiroshima; while the devastation that could be caused by the world's stock pile of nuclear weapons, could be equivalent to 160 millions of Chernobyl-like incidents. As known, the number of nuclear weapons is over 50,000 and 2000 nuclear weapons are sufficient to destroy the world. The Three Mile Island and Chernobyl accidents have been blamed on human factors but also the human element, particularly in the form of psychological stresses on those operating the nuclear weapons, could accidentally bring the world to a nuclear catastrophe. This opinion is encouraged by the London's Sunday Times magazine which gave a graphic description of life inside a nuclear submarine. So, to speak of nuclear reactor accidents and not of nuclear weapons is false security. (author)

Nonlinear physics: Catastrophe, chaos and complexity

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Arecchi, F.T.

1992-01-01

Currently in the world of physics, there is open debate on the role of the three C's - catastrophe, chaos and complexity. Seen as new ideas or paradigms, incapable of being harmonized within the realm of traditional physics, these terms seem to be creating turmoil in the classical physics establishment whose foundations date back to the early seventeenth century. This paper first defines catastrophe, chaos and complexity and shows how these terms are all connected to nonlinear dynamics and how they have long since been present within scientific treatises. It also evidences the relationship of the three C's with the concept of organization, inappropriately called self-organization, and with recognition and decisional strategies of cognitive systems. Relevant to natural science, the development of these considerations is necessitating the re-examination of the role and capabilities of human knowledge and a return to inter-disciplinary scientific-philosophical debate

Communications en cas de catastrophe faisant appel aux TIC pour ...

International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

Communications en cas de catastrophe faisant appel aux TIC pour les collectivités vulnérables des Caraïbes. De récents événements survenus dans les Caraïbes ont mis en relief les insuffisances des mesures régionales et nationales de préparation aux catastrophes. On manque particulièrement de systèmes d'alerte ...

Radiation hazards of nuclear engineering

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Oster, H.

1981-01-01

The basic mechanisms and principles of nuclear power plants are discussed, since their knowledge is mandatory for the understanding of the true risk associated with nuclear technology. Differences between predictable and catastrophic accidents are compared, terms which have been frequently confused to the extent that the public has become unjustifiably and irresponsibly alarmed. A description of the jobs and their responsibilities is also given. Known accidents are reported and the role of the physician in the care of accidents and the scheduling of emergency situations is described. Finally, the usefullness, necessity and risk associated with nuclear power are discussed. (orig.) [de

Catastrophic phase transitions and early warnings in a spatial ecological model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fernández, A; Fort, H

2009-01-01

Gradual changes in exploitation, nutrient loading, etc produce shifts between alternative stable states (ASS) in ecosystems which, quite often, are not smooth but abrupt or catastrophic. Early warnings of such catastrophic regime shifts are fundamental for designing management protocols for ecosystems. Here we study the spatial version of a popular ecological model, involving a logistically growing single species subject to exploitation, which is known to exhibit ASS. Spatial heterogeneity is introduced by a carrying capacity parameter varying from cell to cell in a regular lattice. Transport of biomass among cells is included in the form of diffusion. We investigate whether different quantities from statistical mechanics—like the variance, the two-point correlation function and the patchiness—may serve as early warnings of catastrophic phase transitions between the ASS. In particular, we find that the patch-size distribution follows a power law when the system is close to the catastrophic transition. We also provide links between spatial and temporal indicators and analyse how the interplay between diffusion and spatial heterogeneity may affect the earliness of each of the observables. We find that possible remedial procedures, which can be followed after these early signals, become more effective as the diffusion becomes lower. Finally, we comment on similarities of and differences between these catastrophic shifts and paradigmatic thermodynamic phase transitions like the liquid–vapour change of state for a fluid like water

Strategic reasoning and bargaining in catastrophic climate change games

Science.gov (United States)

Verendel, Vilhelm; Johansson, Daniel J. A.; Lindgren, Kristian

2016-03-01

Two decades of international negotiations show that agreeing on emission levels for climate change mitigation is a hard challenge. However, if early warning signals were to show an upcoming tipping point with catastrophic damage, theory and experiments suggest this could simplify collective action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. At the actual threshold, no country would have a free-ride incentive to increase emissions over the tipping point, but it remains for countries to negotiate their emission levels to reach these agreements. We model agents bargaining for emission levels using strategic reasoning to predict emission bids by others and ask how this affects the possibility of reaching agreements that avoid catastrophic damage. It is known that policy elites often use a higher degree of strategic reasoning, and in our model this increases the risk for climate catastrophe. Moreover, some forms of higher strategic reasoning make agreements to reduce greenhouse gases unstable. We use empirically informed levels of strategic reasoning when simulating the model.

Madame Bovary and Catastrophism: Revolving narratives

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ruth Morris

2011-07-01

Full Text Available Cet article relie Madame Bovary au contexte scientifique français des années 1850, en lisant le roman de Flaubert à la lumière des théories de Cuvier. Le savant français Georges Cuvier, avec nombre de ses contemporains, explique les origines du monde à l’aide de la théorie des catastrophes. D’après cette théorie, le monde est divisé en périodes très courtes ponctuées de grandes catastrophes ou, en termes cuviériens, de « révolutions » qui ont éradiqué toute vie et ont permis au monde d’être entièrement repeuplé. Une telle conception affecte l’idée même du « temps ». Cuvier pense que la formation de la Terre est relativement récente, l’époque présente n’étant vieille que de cinq mille ans. Cette compression temporelle peut être rapportée à Madame Bovary dont le « tempo » s’accroît au fur et à mesure qu’on se rapproche du dénouement. Dans la théorie des catastrophes comme dans le roman, le temps ne suit pas une ligne chronologique. Les « révolutions » viennent briser le fil continu du temps et Emma est souvent incapable de distinguer entre le passé, le présent et le futur. Les « révolutions » servent aussi à ponctuer et à perturber le cours de la vie sur Terre en produisant des événements majeurs dans l’histoire du globe. Il en est de même dans la vie d’Emma. Son existence est marquée par des événements majeurs, comme le bal, qui créent un éclatement et une fragmentation de la temporalité, comme dans la théorie de Cuvier. Je défendrai aussi l’idée d’un lien entre la soudaineté et la violence des « révolutions » et les crises nerveuses d’Emma, qui surviennent brusquement et relèvent de l’hystérie. La conception cuviérienne de la temporalité doit enfin être envisagée au regard des théories de l’évolution, ce qui implique de réévaluer les notions d’adaptation, d’hérédité et de mort dans le roman de Flaubert.This paper locates Madame

Catastrophic event modeling. [lithium thionyl chloride batteries

Science.gov (United States)

Frank, H. A.

1981-01-01

A mathematical model for the catastrophic failures (venting or explosion of the cell) in lithium thionyl chloride batteries is presented. The phenomenology of the various processes leading to cell failure is reviewed.

Mastering nuclear energy: what do we know and what can we do after Fukushima?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Basdevant, J.L.

2011-01-01

The nuclear catastrophe of Fukushima is a illustration of the contradiction between the will of using nuclear energy for the well-being of humanity and the reasons of state with behind, the imprudence of men due to the degradation of the political decision process. The Fukushima accident is not the first of a kind, and one can ask when, where and how the next ones will happen. When we know that the economical stakes of energy resources raise political problems, we can better understand why the civil nuclear industry is considered as strategic on all aspects, and thus highly controlled on the public information side. Nuclear physics has marked the modern times in various domains like medicine, war, arts or astrophysics. With some schemes and many examples, the author explains in this book what is nuclear energy and what are its applications. He describes the mechanisms involved in nuclear reactions, before, during and after the reactions. Content: Forewords. What is nuclear physics? Radioactivity: applications and risks. Fission. Nuclear power generation. Nuclear accidents and catastrophes. Thermonuclear fusion. Some energy figures. Nuclear proliferation. What can we think about and do after Fukushima? Index. (J.S.)

Catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome and pregnancy. Clinical report.

Science.gov (United States)

Khizroeva, J; Bitsadze, V; Makatsariya, A

2018-01-08

We have observed the development of a catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome (CAPS) in a pregnant woman hospitalized at 28 weeks of gestation with a severe preeclampsia. On the same day, an eclampsia attack developed, and an emergency surgical delivery was performed. On the third day, multiorgan failure developed. Examination showed a persistent circulation of lupus anticoagulant, high level of antibodies to cardiolipin, b2-glycoprotein I, and prothrombin. The usual diagnosis of the severe preeclampsia masked a catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome, exacerbated by the coincident presence of several types of antiphospholipid antibodies. The first pregnancy resulted in a premature birth at 25 weeks, possibly also due to the circulation of antiphospholipid antibodies. The trigger of the catastrophic form development was the pregnancy itself, surgical intervention, and hyperhomocysteinemia. CAPS is the most severe form of antiphospholipid syndrome, manifested in multiple microthrombosis of microcirculation of vital organs and in the development of multiorgan failure against the background of the high level of antiphospholipid antibodies. CAPS is characterized by renal, cerebral, gastrointestinal, adrenal, ovarian, skin, and other forms of microthrombosis. Thrombosis recurrence is typical. Thrombotic microvasculopathy lies at the heart of multiorgan failure and manifests clinically in central nervous system lesions, adrenal insufficiency, and ARDS development. CAPS is a life-threatening condition, therefore, requires an urgent treatment. Optimal treatment of CAPS is not developed. CAPS represent a general medical multidisciplinary problem.

Catastrophic subsidence: An environmental hazard, shelby county, Alabama

Science.gov (United States)

Lamoreaux, Philip E.; Newton, J. G.

1986-03-01

Induced sinkholes (catastrophic subsidence) are those caused or accelerated by human activities These sinkholes commonly result from a water level decline due to pumpage Construction activities in a cone of depression greatly increases the likelihood of sinkhole occurrence Almost all occur where cavities develop in unconsolidated deposits overlying solution openings in carbonate rocks. Triggering mechanisms resulting from water level declines are (1) loss of buoyant support of the water, (2) increased gradient and water velocity, (3) water-level fluctuations, and (4) induced recharge Construction activities triggering sinkhole development include ditching, removing overburden, drilling, movement of heavy equipment, blasting and the diversion and impoundment of drainage Triggering mechanisms include piping, saturation, and loading Induced sinkholes resulting from human water development/management activities are most predictable in a youthful karst area impacted by groundwater withdrawals Shape, depth, and timing of catastrophic subsidence can be predicted in general terms Remote sensing techniques are used in prediction of locations of catastrophic subsidence. This provides a basis for design and relocation of structures such as a gas pipeline, dam, or building Utilization of techniques and a case history of the relocation of a pipeline are described

Catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome in leprosy | Chewoolkar ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome is an acute and life threatening variant of antiphospholipid syndrome with a high mortality rate. Many infections are known to be accompanied by the thrombotic manifestations of this syndrome. We came across a patient of leprosy who developed bowel ischaemia secondary to ...

Polarization catastrophe in nanostructures doped in photonic band gap materials

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Singh, Mahi R. [Department of Physics and Astronomy, University of Western Ontario, London N6A 3K7 (Canada)], E-mail: msingh@uwo.ca

2008-11-30

In the presence of the dipole-dipole interaction, we have studied a possible dielectric catastrophe in photonic band gap materials doped with an ensemble of four-level nanoparticles. It is found that the dielectric constant of the system has a singularity when the resonance energy lies within the bands. This phenomenon is known as the dielectric catastrophe. It is also found that this phenomenon depends on the strength of the dipole-dipole interaction.

Catastrophic Health Expenditure and Household Impoverishment: a case of NCDs prevalence in Kenya

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Daniel Mwai

2016-03-01

Full Text Available Introduction and problem: Non-Communicable Diseases (NCDs have become one of the leading causes of morbidity and mortality in Kenya. Their claim on financial and time resources adversely affects household welfare. Health care cost for NCDs in Kenya is predominantly paid by households as OOP. Health expenditure on NCD stands at 6.2% of Total Health Expenditure which is 0.4 % of the total gross domestic product of the country. This expenditure scenario could have implications on household welfare through catastrophic expenditure in Kenya. Most studies done on catastrophic expenditure in Kenya have not looked at the effect of NCD on poverty. Methodology: The paper has investigated the determinants of catastrophic health spending in a household with special focus on the NCDs. It has also investigated the effect of catastrophic expenditure on household welfare.A National household level survey data on expenditure and utilization is used. Controlling for endogeneity, the results revealed that NCDs and communicable diseases contribute significantly to the likelihood of a household incurring catastrophic expenditure. Results: Although all types of sicknesses have negative effects on household welfare, NCDs have more severe impacts on impoverishment. Policy wise, government and development partners should put in place a health financing plan entailing health insurance and resource pooling as a mean towards social protection. Key words:  Non-Communicable Diseases (NCD, Catastrophic Health Expenditure, endogeneity Impoverishment

On the selfacting safe limitation of fission power and fuel temperature in innovative nuclear reactors

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Scherer, W.; Brockmann, H.; Drecker, S.; Gerwin, H.; Haas, K.A.; Kugeler, K.; Ohlig, U.; Ruetten, H.J.; Teuchert, E.; Werner, H.; Wolf, L.

1994-08-01

Nuclear energy probably will not contribute significantly to the future worldwide energy supply until it can be made catastrophe-free. Therefore it has to be shown, that the consequences of even largest accidents will have no major impact to the environment of a power plant. In this paper one of the basic conditions for such a nuclear technology is discussed. Using mainly the modular pebble-bed high-temperature reactor as an example, the design principles, analytical methods and the level of knowledge as given today in controlling reactivity accidents by inherent safety features of innovative nuclear reactors are described. Complementary possibilities are shown to reach this goal with systems of different types of construction. Questions open today and resulting requirements for future activities are discussed. Today's knowledge credibly supports the possibility of a catastrophe-free nuclear technology with respect to reactivity events. (orig.)

Fukushima. From the earth quake to the nuclear disaster

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Coulmas, Florian; Stalpers, Judith

2011-01-01

The authors of the booklet who lived in Japan at the time of the earth quake and the following catastrophic nuclear accidents in Fukushima describe their experiences during the earth quake and the following days. Although Japan is used to natural disasters the tsunami and the consequences for the NPP Fukushima Daiichi surmounted any imagination. The challenges for the local authorities as a consequence of the catastrophic progress of the disaster, the suffering of the citizens and at the same time the discipline and serenity to the affected persons are reported.

Efficient prevention and compensation of catastrophic risks - the example of nuclear accidents

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Vanden Borre, T.

2002-01-01

The document is an abstract of a PhD thesis. The thesis critically reviews key elements of the current nuclear liability law, in particular the limitation of liability and discusses the benefits and disadvantages of nuclear insurance pools and collective systems of operators (captives)

Optimal design of earth-moving machine elements with cusp catastrophe theory application

Science.gov (United States)

Pitukhin, A. V.; Skobtsov, I. G.

2017-10-01

This paper deals with the optimal design problem solution for the operator of an earth-moving machine with a roll-over protective structure (ROPS) in terms of the catastrophe theory. A brief description of the catastrophe theory is presented, the cusp catastrophe is considered, control parameters are viewed as Gaussian stochastic quantities in the first part of the paper. The statement of optimal design problem is given in the second part of the paper. It includes the choice of the objective function and independent design variables, establishment of system limits. The objective function is determined as mean total cost that includes initial cost and cost of failure according to the cusp catastrophe probability. Algorithm of random search method with an interval reduction subject to side and functional constraints is given in the last part of the paper. The way of optimal design problem solution can be applied to choose rational ROPS parameters, which will increase safety and reduce production and exploitation expenses.

Precursory landforms and geologic structures of catastrophic landslides induced by typhoon Talas 2011 Japan (Invited)

Science.gov (United States)

Chigira, M.; Matsushi, Y.; Tsou, C.

2013-12-01

Our experience of catastrophic landslides induced by rainstorms and earthquakes in recent years suggests that many of them are preceded by deep-seated gravitational slope deformation. Deep-seated gravitational slope deformation continues slowly and continually and some of them transform into catastrophic failures, which cause devastating damage in wide areas. Some other types, however, do not change into catastrophic failure. Deep-seated gravitational slope deformation that preceded catastrophic failures induced by typhoon Talas 2011 Japan, had been surveyed with airborne laser scanner beforehand, of which high-resolution DEMs gave us an important clue to identify which type of topographic features of gravitational slope deformation is susceptible to catastrophic failure. We found that 26 of 39 deep-seated catastrophic landslides had small scarps along the heads of future landslides. These scarps were caused by gravitational slope deformation that preceded the catastrophic failure. Although the scarps may have been enlarged by degradation, their sizes relative to the whole slopes suggest that minimal slope deformation had occurred in the period immediately before the catastrophic failure. The scarp ratio, defined as the ratio of length of a scarp to that of the whole slope both measured along the slope line, ranged from 1% to 23%. 38% of the landslides with small scarps had scarp ratios less than 4%, and a half less than 8%. This fact suggests that the gravitational slope deformation preceded catastrophic failure was relatively small and may suggest that those slopes were under critical conditions just before catastrophic failure. The above scarp ratios may be characteristic to accretional complex with undulating, anastomosing thrust faults, which were major sliding surfaces of the typhoon-induced landslides. Eleven of the remaining 13 landslides occurred in landslide scars of previous landslides or occurred as an extension of landslide scars at the lower parts of

From Catastrophizing to Recovery: a pilot study of a single-session treatment for pain catastrophizing

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Darnall BD

2014-04-01

Full Text Available Beth D Darnall, John A Sturgeon, Ming-Chih Kao, Jennifer M Hah, Sean C MackeyDivision of Pain Medicine, Stanford Systems Neuroscience and Pain Laboratory, Stanford University School of Medicine, Palo Alto, CA, USABackground: Pain catastrophizing (PC – a pattern of negative cognitive-emotional responses to real or anticipated pain – maintains chronic pain and undermines medical treatments. Standard PC treatment involves multiple sessions of cognitive behavioral therapy. To provide efficient treatment, we developed a single-session, 2-hour class that solely treats PC entitled “From Catastrophizing to Recovery”[FCR].Objectives: To determine 1 feasibility of FCR; 2 participant ratings for acceptability, understandability, satisfaction, and likelihood to use the information learned; and 3 preliminary efficacy of FCR for reducing PC.Design and methods: Uncontrolled prospective pilot trial with a retrospective chart and database review component. Seventy-six patients receiving care at an outpatient pain clinic (the Stanford Pain Management Center attended the class as free treatment and 70 attendees completed and returned an anonymous survey immediately post-class. The Pain Catastrophizing Scale (PCS was administered at class check-in (baseline and at 2, and 4 weeks post-treatment. Within subjects repeated measures analysis of variance (ANOVA with Student's t-test contrasts were used to compare scores across time points.Results: All attendees who completed a baseline PCS were included as study participants (N=57; F=82%; mean age =50.2 years; PCS was completed by 46 participants at week 2 and 35 participants at week 4. Participants had significantly reduced PC at both time points (P<0001 and large effect sizes were found (Cohen's d=0.85 and d=1.15.Conclusion: Preliminary data suggest that FCR is an acceptable and effective treatment for PC. Larger, controlled studies of longer duration are needed to determine durability of response, factors

Medicine and nuclear war - helpless

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1983-01-01

At the end of the ''2nd Medical Congress for the Prevention of Nuclear War'' attention is again drawn to the fact that erroneous or intended use of nuclear weapons can kill hundreds of millions and make the earth unlivable. What physicians are refusing here is not to give whatever help they can or are obliged to. They are on strike against politicians and journalists who ascribe them an ability they do not possess. They refuse to be the objects of false praise pretending that they could be helpers or rescuers in the, unfortunately, not only possible but probable nuclear catastrophe. (orig./HSCH) [de

Pro-Nuclear Environmentalism: Should We Learn to Stop Worrying and Love Nuclear Energy?

Science.gov (United States)

van Munster, Rens; Sylvest, Casper

2015-10-01

In light of repeated failures to reach political agreement on effective policies to combat climate change, pro-nuclear environmentalists have set out to reverse the traditionally anti-nuclear inclinations of environmentalists. This essay examines the ideological commitments and assumptions of pro-nuclear environmentalism by performing a critical, historical analysis of the nuclear-environment nexus through the prism of documentary film. We focus on the work and career of documentary filmmaker Rob Stone, whose most recent production, Pandora's Promise (PP) (2013), has emerged as a central statement of this creed. PP actively forges a new political imaginary that replaces the apocalyptic image of nuclear fallout with that of catastrophic climate change. In terms of its rhetorical and visual strategies, however, PP also reveals that pro-nuclear environmentalist arguments have a long lineage. A close study of such continuities reveals a number of political implications that call for reflection as well as caution.

Effects of microtubule mechanics on hydrolysis and catastrophes

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Müller, N; Kierfeld, J

2014-01-01

We introduce a model for microtubule (MT) mechanics containing lateral bonds between dimers in neighboring protofilaments, bending rigidity of dimers, and repulsive interactions between protofilaments modeling steric constraints to investigate the influence of mechanical forces on hydrolysis and catastrophes. We use the allosteric dimer model, where tubulin dimers are characterized by an equilibrium bending angle, which changes from 0 ∘ to 22 ∘ by hydrolysis of a dimer. This also affects the lateral interaction and bending energies and, thus, the mechanical equilibrium state of the MT. As hydrolysis gives rise to conformational changes in dimers, mechanical forces also influence the hydrolysis rates by mechanical energy changes modulating the hydrolysis rate. The interaction via the MT mechanics then gives rise to correlation effects in the hydrolysis dynamics, which have not been taken into account before. Assuming a dominant influence of mechanical energies on hydrolysis rates, we investigate the most probable hydrolysis pathways both for vectorial and random hydrolysis. Investigating the stability with respect to lateral bond rupture, we identify initiation configurations for catastrophes along the hydrolysis pathways and values for a lateral bond rupture force. If we allow for rupturing of lateral bonds between dimers in neighboring protofilaments above this threshold force, our model exhibits avalanche-like catastrophe events. (papers)

Study on China’s Earthquake Prediction by Mathematical Analysis and its Application in Catastrophe Insurance

Science.gov (United States)

Jianjun, X.; Bingjie, Y.; Rongji, W.

2018-03-01

The purpose of this paper was to improve catastrophe insurance level. Firstly, earthquake predictions were carried out using mathematical analysis method. Secondly, the foreign catastrophe insurances’ policies and models were compared. Thirdly, the suggestions on catastrophe insurances to China were discussed. The further study should be paid more attention on the earthquake prediction by introducing big data.

Special software for computing the special functions of wave catastrophes

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Andrey S. Kryukovsky

2015-01-01

Full Text Available The method of ordinary differential equations in the context of calculating the special functions of wave catastrophes is considered. Complementary numerical methods and algorithms are described. The paper shows approaches to accelerate such calculations using capabilities of modern computing systems. Methods for calculating the special functions of wave catastrophes are considered in the framework of parallel computing and distributed systems. The paper covers the development process of special software for calculating of special functions, questions of portability, extensibility and interoperability.

A unified approach of catastrophic events

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

S. Nikolopoulos

2004-01-01

Full Text Available Although there is an accumulated charge of theoretical, computational, and numerical work, like catastrophe theory, bifurcation theory, stochastic and deterministic chaos theory, there is an important feeling that these matters do not completely cover the physics of real catastrophic events. Recent studies have suggested that a large variety of complex processes, including earthquakes, heartbeats, and neuronal dynamics, exhibits statistical similarities. Here we are studying in terms of complexity and non linear techniques whether isomorphic signatures emerged indicating the transition from the normal state to the both geological and biological shocks. In the last 15 years, the study of Complex Systems has emerged as a recognized field in its own right, although a good definition of what a complex system is, actually is eluded. A basic reason for our interest in complexity is the striking similarity in behaviour close to irreversible phase transitions among systems that are otherwise quite different in nature. It is by now recognized that the pre-seismic electromagnetic time-series contain valuable information about the earthquake preparation process, which cannot be extracted without the use of important computational power, probably in connection with computer Algebra techniques. This paper presents an analysis, the aim of which is to indicate the approach of the global instability in the pre-focal area. Non-linear characteristics are studied by applying two techniques, namely the Correlation Dimension Estimation and the Approximate Entropy. These two non-linear techniques present coherent conclusions, and could cooperate with an independent fractal spectral analysis to provide a detection concerning the emergence of the nucleation phase of the impending catastrophic event. In the context of similar mathematical background, it would be interesting to augment this description of pre-seismic electromagnetic anomalies in order to cover biological

The medical consequences of nuclear weapons

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Humphrey, J.; Hartog, M.; Middleton, H.

1982-01-01

A pamphlet has been produced by the Medical Campaign Against Nuclear Weapons (MCANW) and by the Medical Association for the Prevention of War (MAPW) to bring the catastrophic effects that the use of nuclear weapons would entail to the attention of the general public, politicians and members of the medical profession. It describes the medical consequences of the effects of blast, heat and ionizing radiation from nuclear weapons, including details from the Hiroshima and Nagasaki atomic bombings. The medical consequences of a nuclear attack including consideration of the casualties, care of the injured, psychological effects and the outcome are also discussed. It is concluded that if for none other than purely medical reasons, nuclear warfare must never be allowed to happen. (UK)

Australia and nuclear war

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Denborough, M.A.

1985-01-01

This volume compiles the papers presented in the conference held in May 1983 under the auspices of the Center for Continuing Education at the Australian National University. It also includes some previously unpublished scientific research. The papers range from analyses of the atmospheric and medical consequences of nuclear war to summaries of the efforts of people in all walks of life to prevent a global catastrophe

Planner and nuclear crisis relocation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Platt, R.H.

1984-01-01

Criticism of the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) plans to relocate two-thirds of the American people one week before a nuclear attack has been so intense that planners have renamed the crisis relocation plan to Integrated Emergency Management. A careful study of plans for the town of Greenfield, Massachusetts show that they are not only unworkable, but would seriously weaken the country even if no attack occurred. Recent warnings of a global climatic catastrophe and nuclear winter in the wake of a nuclear exchange underscore the need to denounce relocation policies as dangerous. Planners should take the lead in emphasizing the long-term consequences and informing the public that there is no civil defense against nuclear war. 7 references

The ecology of the Chernobyl catastrophe. Scientific outlines of an international programme of collaborative research

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Savchenko, V.K.

1995-01-01

The Chernobyl disaster was the largest civil nuclear catastrophe of all time. When reactor number 4 of the Chernobyl nuclear power plant exploded on 26 April 1986, it permanently changed the lives of more than 4 million people living in Belarus, Ukraine and Russia, shaking the fabric of an area almost the size of England, and triggering a whole swathe of environmental, economic, social, medical and political repercussions. At first the Soviet Union tackled the aftermath alone but, by 1990, with the process of change associated with perestroika, the three affected states of Belarus, Ukraine and the Federation of Russia appealed to the international community for solidarity and help. In co-operation with other agencies of the United Nations system, the UNESCO Chernobyl Programme was launched , with the formal signing of an agreement in January 1991 between the three republics and UNESCO. Since then, some twenty projects have been carried out in UNESCO's various fields of competence - education, science, culture and communication. The volume reviews eight years of study on the impact of Chernobyl on natural ecosystems, agro-ecosystems, human ecology, biological diversity, and genetic and socio-economic systems. It comprises eight chapters. The first three chapters discuss the effects of the high levels of radionuclides released from the Chernobyl reactor on the environment, on natural ecosystems and on agro-ecosystems. The fourth chapter, on human ecology, covers both the human effects at the time of the disaster and those still continuing today. Chapters five and six describe the impact of radionuclide release on biological diversity and genetic systems respectively. The socioeconomic effects of the catastrophe are discussed in chapter seven. Each of these seven chapters ends with scientific hypotheses and research recommendations, with a final chapter providing a detailed description of the setting up and aims of the multinational and multidimensional Chernobyl

Gravothermal catastrophe of finite amplitude

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hachisu, I; Sugimoto, D [Tokyo Univ. (Japan). Coll. of General Education; Nakada, Y; Nomoto, K

1978-08-01

Development of the gravothermal catastrophe is followed numerically for self-gravitating gas system enclosed by an adiabatic wall, which is isothermal in the initial state. It is found that the final fate of the catastrophe is in two ways depending on the initial perturbations. When the initial perturbation produces a temperature distribution decreasing outward, the contraction proceeds in the central region and the central density increases unlimitedly, as the heat flows outward. When the initial temperature distribution is increasing outward, on the other hand, the central region expands as the heat flows into the central region. Then the density contrast is reduced and finally the system reaches another isothermal configuration with the same energy but with a lower density contrast and a higher entropy. This final configuration is gravothermally stable and may be called a thermal system. In the former case of the unlimited contraction, the final density profile is determined essentially by the density and temperature dependence of the heat conductivity. In the case of a system under the force of the inverse square law, the final density distribution is well approximated by a power law so that the mass contained in the condensed core is relatively small. A possibility of formation of a black hole in stellar systems is also discussed.

Gravothermal catastrophe of finite amplitude

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hachisu, Izumi; Sugimoto, Daiichiro; Nakada, Yoshikazu; Nomoto, Ken-ichi.

1978-01-01

Development of the gravothermal catastrophe is followed numerically for self-gravitating gas system enclosed by an adiabatic wall, which is isothermal in the initial state. It is found that the final fate of the catastrophe is in two ways depending on the initial perturbations. When the initial perturbation produces a temperature distribution decreasing outward, the contraction proceeds in the central region and the central density increases unlimitedly, as the heat flows outward. When the initial temperature distribution is increasing outward, on the other hand, the central region expands as the heat flows into the central region. Then the density contrast is reduced and finally the system reaches another isothermal configuration with the same energy but with a lower density contrast and a higher entropy. This final configuration is gravothermally stable and may be called a thermal system. In the former case of the unlimited contraction, the final density profile is determined essentially by the density and temperature dependence of the heat conductivity. In the case of a system under the force of the inverse square law, the final density distribution is well approximated by a power law so that the mass contained in the condensed core is relatively small. A possibility of formation of a black hole in stellar systems is also discussed. (author)

Chernobyl nuclear catastrophe and the high risk potential for mental retardation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Holowinsky, I.Z.

1993-01-01

The nuclear explosion at Chernobyl nuclear reactor on April 26, 1986, continues to have wide political, social, and medical ramifications. Hot debris from the Chernobyl reactor covered an area of more than 5,000 square kilometers with nearly 20 million curies of radionuclides. Eleven regions with a population of nearly 17 million people, of whom 2.5 million were children below the age of 5 years, suffered some degree of radioactive contamination. These children are currently of elementary school age. One of the tragedies of the explosion is that thousands of these children are at high risk for mental retardation and learning disorders

India's nuclear command and control: perspectives from organisation theory

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sasikumar, Shanmugasundaram

2010-01-01

Command and control of nuclear weapons was the edifice upon which great power nuclear strategy was based. Empirical Cold War research later proved that this edifice was, in fact, only a power keg. Therefore, US non-proliferation-minded analysts propounded logical reasons for their claim that new nuclear nations will be unable to demonstrate prudence in nuclear weapons management. The unique Indian case, pronounced from the organisation theory perspective, proves to the contrary. India's nuclear organisation is not a static entity; its unique strategic culture together with a political standard operating procedure for nuclear weapons management reduces the exaggerated possibility of any catastrophe. (author)

Catastrophic risk : Social influences on insurance decisions

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Krawczyk, Michal; Trautmann, Stefan; van de Kuilen, Gijs

We study behavioral patterns of insurance demand for low-probability large-loss events (catastrophic losses). Individual patterns of belief formation and risk attitude that were suggested in the behavioral decisions literature emerge robustly in the current set of insurance choices. However, social

Diagnosis and management of catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome.

Science.gov (United States)

Carmi, Or; Berla, Maya; Shoenfeld, Yehuda; Levy, Yair

2017-04-01

Catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome (CAPS) is a rare, life-threatening disease. In 1992, Asherson defined it as a widespread coagulopathy related to the antiphospholipid antibodies (aPL). CAPS requires rapid diagnosis and prompt initiation of treatment. Areas covered: This paper discusses all aspects of CAPS, including its pathophysiology, clinical manifestations, diagnostic approaches, differential diagnoses, management and treatment of relapsing CAPS, and its prognosis. To obtain the information used in this review, scientific databases were searched using the key words antiphospholipid antibodies, catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome, hemolytic anemia, lupus anticoagulant, and thrombotic microangiopathic hemolytic anemia. Expert commentary: CAPS is a rare variant of the antiphospholipid syndrome (APS). It is characterized by thrombosis in multiple organs and a cytokine storm developing over a short period, with histopathologic evidence of multiple microthromboses, and laboratory confirmation of high aPL titers. This review discusses the diagnostic challenges and current approaches to the treatment of CAPS.

Intestinal malrotation and catastrophic volvulus in infancy.

Science.gov (United States)

Lee, Henry Chong; Pickard, Sarah S; Sridhar, Sunita; Dutta, Sanjeev

2012-07-01

Intestinal malrotation in the newborn is usually diagnosed after signs of intestinal obstruction, such as bilious emesis, and corrected with the Ladd procedure. The objective of this report is to describe the presentation of severe cases of midgut volvulus presenting in infancy, and to discuss the characteristics of these cases. We performed a 7-year review at our institution and present two cases of catastrophic midgut volvulus presenting in the post-neonatal period, ending in death soon after the onset of symptoms. These two patients also had significant laboratory abnormalities compared to patients with more typical presentations resulting in favorable outcomes. Although most cases of intestinal malrotation in infancy can be treated successfully, in some circumstances, patients' symptoms may not be detected early enough for effective treatment, and therefore may result in catastrophic midgut volvulus and death. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Dyadic analysis of child and parent trait and state pain catastrophizing in the process of children's pain communication.

Science.gov (United States)

Birnie, Kathryn A; Chambers, Christine T; Chorney, Jill; Fernandez, Conrad V; McGrath, Patrick J

2016-04-01

When explored separately, child and parent catastrophic thoughts about child pain show robust negative relations with child pain. The objective of this study was to conduct a dyadic analysis to elucidate intrapersonal and interpersonal influences of child and parent pain catastrophizing on aspects of pain communication, including observed behaviours and perceptions of child pain. A community sample of 171 dyads including children aged 8 to 12 years (89 girls) and parents (135 mothers) rated pain catastrophizing (trait and state versions) and child pain intensity and unpleasantness following a cold pressor task. Child pain tolerance was also assessed. Parent-child interactions during the cold pressor task were coded for parent attending, nonattending, and other talk, and child symptom complaints and other talk. Data were analyzed using the actor-partner interdependence model and hierarchical multiple regressions. Children reporting higher state pain catastrophizing had greater symptom complaints regardless of level of parent state pain catastrophizing. Children reporting low state pain catastrophizing had similar high levels of symptom complaints, but only when parents reported high state pain catastrophizing. Higher child and parent state and/or trait pain catastrophizing predicted their own ratings of higher child pain intensity and unpleasantness, with child state pain catastrophizing additionally predicting parent ratings. Higher pain tolerance was predicted by older child age and lower child state pain catastrophizing. These newly identified interpersonal effects highlight the relevance of the social context to children's pain expressions and parent perceptions of child pain. Both child and parent pain catastrophizing warrant consideration when managing child pain.

Financial catastrophe and poverty impacts of out-of-pocket health payments in Turkey.

Science.gov (United States)

Özgen Narcı, Hacer; Şahin, İsmet; Yıldırım, Hasan Hüseyin

2015-04-01

To determine the prevalence of catastrophic health payments, examine the determinants of catastrophic expenditures, and assess the poverty impact of out-of-pocket (OOP) payments. Data came from the 2004 to 2010 Household Budget Survey. Catastrophic health spending was defined by health payments as percentage of household consumption expenditures and capacity to pay at a set of thresholds. The poverty impact was evaluated by poverty head counts and poverty gaps before and after OOP health payments. The percentage of households that catastrophically spent their consumption expenditure and capacity to pay increased from 2004 to 2010, regardless of the threshold used. Households with a share of more than 40% health spending in both consumption expenditure and capacity to pay accounted for less than 1% across years. However, when a series of potential confounders were taken into account, the study found statistically significantly increased risk for the lowest threshold and decreased risk for the highest threshold in 2010 relative to the base year. Household income, size, education, senior and under 5-year-old members, health insurance, disabled members, payment for inpatient care and settlement were also statistically significant predictors of catastrophic health spending. Overall, poverty head counts were below 1%. Poverty gaps reached a maximum of 0.098%, with an overall increase in 2010 compared to 2004. Catastrophe and poverty increased from 2004 to 2010. However, given that the realization of some recent policies will affect the financial burden of OOP payments on households, the findings of this study need to be replicated.

A comparison of catastrophic injury incidence rates by Provincial Rugby Union in South Africa.

Science.gov (United States)

Badenhorst, Marelise; Verhagen, Evert A L M; van Mechelen, Willem; Lambert, Michael I; Viljoen, Wayne; Readhead, Clint; Baerecke, Gail; Brown, James C

2017-07-01

To compare catastrophic injury rates between the 14 South African Provincial Rugby Unions. A prospective, population-based study conducted among all South African Unions between 2008-2014. Player numbers in each Union were obtained from South African Rugby's 2013 Census. Catastrophic injuries were analysed from BokSmart's serious injury database. Incidence rates with 95% Confidence Intervals were calculated. Catastrophic injuries (Acute Spinal Cord Injuries and catastrophic Traumatic Brain Injuries) within Unions were compared statistically, using a Poisson regression with Incidence Rate Ratios (IRR) and a 95% confidence level (pUnion ranged from 1.8 per 100000 players (95% CI: 0.0-6.5) to 7.9 (95% CI: 0.0-28.5) per 100000 players per year. The highest incidence rate of permanent outcome Acute Spinal Cord Injuries was reported at 7.1 per 100000 players (95% CI: 0.0-17.6). Compared to this Union, five (n=5/14, 36%) of the Unions had significantly lower incidence rates of Acute Spinal Cord Injuries. Proportionately, three Unions had more Acute Spinal Cord Injuries and three other Unions had more catastrophic Traumatic Brain Injuries. There were significant differences in the catastrophic injury incidence rates amongst the Provincial Unions in South Africa. Future studies should investigate the underlying reasons contributing to these provincial differences. Copyright © 2017 Sports Medicine Australia. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Public policy and risk financing strategies for global catastrophe risk management - the role of global risk initiatives

Science.gov (United States)

McSharry, Patrick; Mitchell, Andrew; Anderson, Rebecca

2010-05-01

Decision-makers in both public and private organisations depend on accurate data and scientific understanding to adequately address climate change and the impact of extreme events. The financial impacts of catastrophes on populations and infrastructure can be offset through effective risk transfer mechanisms, structured to reflect the specific perils and levels of exposure to be covered. Optimal strategies depend on the likely socio-econonomic impact, the institutional framework, the overall objectives of the covers placed and the level of both the frequency and severity of loss potential expected. The diversity of approaches across different countries has been documented by the Spanish "Consorcio de Compensación de Seguros". We discuss why international public/private partnerships are necessary for addressing the risk of natural catastrophes. International initiatives such as the Global Earthquake Model (GEM) and the World Forum of Catastrophe Programmes (WFCP) can provide effective guidelines for constructing natural catastrophe schemes. The World Bank has been instrumental in the creation of many of the existing schemes such as the Turkish Catastrophe Insurance Pool, the Caribbean Catastrophe Risk Insurance Facility and the Mongolian Index-Based Livestock Insurance Program. We review existing schemes and report on best practice in relation to providing protection against natural catastrophe perils. The suitability of catastrophe modelling approaches to support schemes across the world are discussed and we identify opportunities to improve risk assessment for such schemes through transparent frameworks for quantifying, pricing, sharing and financing catastrophe risk on a local and global basis.

Catastrophe risk data scoping for disaster risk finance in Asia

Science.gov (United States)

Millinship, Ian; Revilla-Romero, Beatriz

2017-04-01

Developing countries across Latin America, Africa, and Asia are some of the most exposed to natural catastrophes in the world. Over the last 20 years, Asia has borne almost half the estimated global economic cost of natural disasters - around 53billion annually. Losses from natural disasters can damage growth and hamper economic development and unlike in developed countries where risk is reallocated through re/insurance, typically these countries rely on budget reallocations and donor assistance in order to attempt to meet financing needs. There is currently an active international dialogue on the need to increase access to disaster risk financing solutions in Asia. The World Bank-GFDRR Disaster Risk Financing and Insurance Program with financial support from the Rockefeller Foundation, is currently working to develop regional options for disaster risk financing for developing countries in Asia. The first stage of this process has been to evaluate available catastrophe data suitable to support the design and implementation of disaster risk financing mechanisms in selected Asian countries. This project was carried out by a consortium of JBA Risk Management, JBA Consulting, ImageCat and Cat Risk Intelligence. The project focuses on investigating potential data sources for fourteen selected countries in Asia, for flood, tropical cyclone, earthquake and drought perils. The project was carried out under four stages. The first phase focused to identify and catalogue live/dynamic hazard data sources such as hazard gauging networks, or earth observations datasets which could be used to inform a parametric trigger. Live data sources were identified that provide credibility, transparency, independence, frequent reporting, consistency and stability. Data were catalogued at regional level, and prioritised at local level for five countries: Bangladesh, Indonesia, Pakistan, Sri Lanka and Viet Nam. The second phase was to identify, catalogue and evaluate catastrophe risk models

Optimism Moderates the Influence of Pain Catastrophizing on Shoulder Pain Outcome: A Longitudinal Analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Coronado, Rogelio A; Simon, Corey B; Lentz, Trevor A; Gay, Charles W; Mackie, Lauren N; George, Steven Z

2017-01-01

Study Design Secondary analysis of prospectively collected data. Background An abundance of evidence has highlighted the influence of pain catastrophizing and fear avoidance on clinical outcomes. Less is known about the interaction of positive psychological resources with these pain-associated distress factors. Objective To assess whether optimism moderates the influence of pain catastrophizing and fear avoidance on 3-month clinical outcomes in patients with shoulder pain. Methods Data from 63 individuals with shoulder pain (mean ± SD age, 38.8 ± 14.9 years; 30 female) were examined. Demographic, psychological, and clinical characteristics were obtained at baseline. Validated measures were used to assess optimism (Life Orientation Test-Revised), pain catastrophizing (Pain Catastrophizing Scale), fear avoidance (Fear-Avoidance Beliefs Questionnaire physical activity subscale), shoulder pain intensity (Brief Pain Inventory), and shoulder function (Pennsylvania Shoulder Score function subscale). Shoulder pain and function were reassessed at 3 months. Regression models assessed the influence of (1) pain catastrophizing and optimism and (2) fear avoidance and optimism. The final multivariable models controlled for factors of age, sex, education, and baseline scores, and included 3-month pain intensity and function as separate dependent variables. Results Shoulder pain (mean difference, -1.6; 95% confidence interval [CI]: -2.1, -1.2) and function (mean difference, 2.4; 95% CI: 0.3, 4.4) improved over 3 months. In multivariable analyses, there was an interaction between pain catastrophizing and optimism (β = 0.19; 95% CI: 0.02, 0.35) for predicting 3-month shoulder function (F = 16.8, R 2 = 0.69, Poptimism lessened the influence of pain catastrophizing on function. There was no evidence of significant moderation of fear-avoidance beliefs for 3-month shoulder pain (P = .090) or function (P = .092). Conclusion Optimism decreased the negative influence of pain

Effects of a Pain Catastrophizing Induction on Sensory Testing in Women with Chronic Low Back Pain: A Pilot Study

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Chloe J. Taub

2017-01-01

Full Text Available Pain catastrophizing, a pattern of negative cognitive-emotional responses to actual or anticipated pain, maintains chronic pain and undermines response to treatments. Currently, precisely how pain catastrophizing influences pain processing is not well understood. In experimental settings, pain catastrophizing has been associated with amplified pain processing. This study sought to clarify pain processing mechanisms via experimental induction of pain catastrophizing. Forty women with chronic low back pain were assigned in blocks to an experimental condition, either a psychologist-led 10-minute pain catastrophizing induction or a control (10-minute rest period. All participants underwent a baseline round of several quantitative sensory testing (QST tasks, followed by the pain catastrophizing induction or the rest period, and then a second round of the same QST tasks. The catastrophizing induction appeared to increase state pain catastrophizing levels. Changes in QST pain were detected for two of the QST tasks administered, weighted pin pain and mechanical allodynia. Although there is a need to replicate our preliminary results with a larger sample, study findings suggest a potential relationship between induced pain catastrophizing and central sensitization of pain. Clarification of the mechanisms through which catastrophizing affects pain modulatory systems may yield useful clinical insights into the treatment of chronic pain.

Effects of a Pain Catastrophizing Induction on Sensory Testing in Women with Chronic Low Back Pain: A Pilot Study.

Science.gov (United States)

Taub, Chloe J; Sturgeon, John A; Johnson, Kevin A; Mackey, Sean C; Darnall, Beth D

2017-01-01

Pain catastrophizing, a pattern of negative cognitive-emotional responses to actual or anticipated pain, maintains chronic pain and undermines response to treatments. Currently, precisely how pain catastrophizing influences pain processing is not well understood. In experimental settings, pain catastrophizing has been associated with amplified pain processing. This study sought to clarify pain processing mechanisms via experimental induction of pain catastrophizing. Forty women with chronic low back pain were assigned in blocks to an experimental condition, either a psychologist-led 10-minute pain catastrophizing induction or a control (10-minute rest period). All participants underwent a baseline round of several quantitative sensory testing (QST) tasks, followed by the pain catastrophizing induction or the rest period, and then a second round of the same QST tasks. The catastrophizing induction appeared to increase state pain catastrophizing levels. Changes in QST pain were detected for two of the QST tasks administered, weighted pin pain and mechanical allodynia. Although there is a need to replicate our preliminary results with a larger sample, study findings suggest a potential relationship between induced pain catastrophizing and central sensitization of pain. Clarification of the mechanisms through which catastrophizing affects pain modulatory systems may yield useful clinical insights into the treatment of chronic pain.

Effects of a Pain Catastrophizing Induction on Sensory Testing in Women with Chronic Low Back Pain: A Pilot Study

Science.gov (United States)

Sturgeon, John A.; Johnson, Kevin A.

2017-01-01

Pain catastrophizing, a pattern of negative cognitive-emotional responses to actual or anticipated pain, maintains chronic pain and undermines response to treatments. Currently, precisely how pain catastrophizing influences pain processing is not well understood. In experimental settings, pain catastrophizing has been associated with amplified pain processing. This study sought to clarify pain processing mechanisms via experimental induction of pain catastrophizing. Forty women with chronic low back pain were assigned in blocks to an experimental condition, either a psychologist-led 10-minute pain catastrophizing induction or a control (10-minute rest period). All participants underwent a baseline round of several quantitative sensory testing (QST) tasks, followed by the pain catastrophizing induction or the rest period, and then a second round of the same QST tasks. The catastrophizing induction appeared to increase state pain catastrophizing levels. Changes in QST pain were detected for two of the QST tasks administered, weighted pin pain and mechanical allodynia. Although there is a need to replicate our preliminary results with a larger sample, study findings suggest a potential relationship between induced pain catastrophizing and central sensitization of pain. Clarification of the mechanisms through which catastrophizing affects pain modulatory systems may yield useful clinical insights into the treatment of chronic pain. PMID:28348505

Medical aspects of nuclear armament

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Janse, M.J.; Schene, A.; Koch, K.

1983-06-18

The authors highlight a few medical, biological and psycological aspects of the use of nuclear weapons, drawing attention to their viewpoint that doctors should actively participate in the fight against nuclear armament. The short and long-term radiation effects on man and ecology are presented based on the Hiroshima and Nagasaki experiences. The danger of human error within this framework is emphasised and it is suggested that it is the medical profession's duty to point out how the effect of stress and boredom can lead to a nuclear catastrophe. Medical expertise may also help in the identification of unstable personalities among those who have access to nuclear weapons and in the understanding of the psycology of international conflicts and the psychopathology of those leaders who would use nuclear war as an instrument of national policy. Finally the effects of the nuclear war threat on children and teenagers are considered.

Medical aspects of nuclear armament

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Janse, M.J.; Schene, A.; Koch, K.

1983-01-01

The authors highlight a few medical, biological and psycological aspects of the use of nuclear weapons, drawing attention to their viewpoint that doctors should actively participate in the fight against nuclear armament. The short and long-term radiation effects on man and ecology are presented based on the Hiroshima and Nagasaki experiences. The danger of human error within this framework is emphasised and it is suggested that it is the medical profession's duty to point out how the effect of stress and boredom can lead to a nuclear catastrophe. Medical expertise may also help in the identification of unstable personalities among those who have access to nuclear weapons and in the understanding of the psycology of international conflicts and the psychopathology of those leaders who would use nuclear war as an instrument of national policy. Finally the effects of the nuclear war threat on children and teenagers are considered. (C.F.)

The environmental effects of nuclear war

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

MacCracken, M.C.

1988-09-01

Substantial environmental disruption will significantly add to the disastrous consequences caused by the direct thermal, blast, and radiological effects brought on by a major nuclear war. Local fallout could cover several percent of the Northern Hemisphere with potentially lethal doses. Smoke from post-nuclear fires could darken the skies and induce temperature decreases of tens of degrees in continental interiors. Stratospheric ozone could be significantly reduced due to nitric oxide injections and smoke-induced circulation changes. The environmental effects spread the consequences of a nuclear war to the world population, adding to the potentially large disruptive effects a further reason to avoid such a catastrophe. 27 refs., 4 figs

Nuclear works. Book of abstracts

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Candel, Danielle; Calberg-Challot, Marie; Alexander, Catherine; Bergsman, Anne; Meyer, Morgan; Taebi, Behnam; Kloosterman, Jan Leen; Kelfaoui, Mahdi; Gingras, Yves; Laborie, Leonard; Beltran, Alain; Bouvier, Yves; Raineau, Laurence; Poirot-Delpech, Sophie; Ollivon, Franck; Mueller, Birgit; Lemarchand, Frederick; Rivat, Emmanuel; Mormont, Marc; Aparicio, Luis; Fassert, Christine; Lehtonen, Markku; Billet, Philippe; Girard, Berenice; Fournier, Pierre; Marion, Richard; Lot, Nicolas

2012-01-01

The interdisciplinary conference 'How can the social sciences help us understand the nuclear world?' seeks to reassess the relations between nuclear and social science research. It has two objectives. First, it seeks to take stock of and build on existing research by making explicit the theoretical approaches, the research methods, the difficulties met by researchers and by possibly identifying aspects of the nuclear phenomenon that may have been neglected or left out by existing research. Second, it wishes to question the relevance of social science to contemporary nuclear debates and policy making. The conference was organized in 6 sessions dealing with: 1 - Nuclear discourses - Contents and legitimacies: Nuclear terminology: from the dictionary to industrial practices (Danielle Candel, Marie Calberg-Challot), The problem of recognizing nuclear objects (Catherine Alexander), Demonstrating safety (Anne Bergsman, Morgan Meyer), Designing for nuclear safety, security and sustainability: a philosophical discourse of the nuclear reactor (Behnam Taebi, Jan Leen Kloosterman); 2 - History, time and space. Tropes of nuclear activity: The Gentilly-1 NPP history: a technological failure? (Mahdi Kelfaoui, Yves Gingras), Nuclear history: experience and research prospects (Leonard Laborie, Yves Bouvier, Alain Beltran), Temporality clash in front of radioactive wastes disposal (Laurence Raineau, Sophie Poirot-Delpech), Canadian nuclear from the standpoint of territoriality: how a NPP shapes space? (Franck Ollivon); 3 - Citizen mobilizations and the experience of disaster: 'We could make a moonscape out of the whole country...' Anti-Nuclear Activism at the Czech - Austrian Border (Birgit Mueller), From a catastrophe to the other: living with nuclear (Frederick Lemarchand), Nuclear contestation: between information, confrontation and political communication - 1970-2010 (Emmanuel Rivat); 4 - Social science meets the nuclear industry: Renegotiating repository safety: the history of

Nuclear security from cradle to grave

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Raja Adnan, Raja Abdul Aziz

2016-01-01

On 8 May 2016, the Amendment to the Convention on the Physical Protection of Nuclear Material (CPPNM) finally entered into force, almost eleven years after its adoption. The world will be a more secure place as a result of the commitments that States party to the Amendment have made. The Amendment establishes legally binding commitments for countries to protect nuclear facilities as well as nuclear material in domestic use, storage and transport. Under the Amendment, countries are required to establish appropriate physical protection regimes for nuclear material. They also take on new obligations to share information on sabotage, including on credible threats of sabotage. The entry into force of the Amendment demonstrates the international community’s resolve to act together to strengthen nuclear security globally. It also helps reduce the risk of an attack involving nuclear material, which could have catastrophic consequences.

Assessing catastrophic and impoverishing effects of health care payments in Uganda

OpenAIRE

Kwesiga, Brendan; Zikusooka, Charlotte M; Ataguba, John E

2015-01-01

Background Direct out-of-pocket payments for health care are recognised as limiting access to health care services and also endangering the welfare of households. In Uganda, such payments comprise a large portion of total health financing. This study assesses the catastrophic and impoverishing impact of paying for health care out-of-pocket in Uganda. Methods Using data from the Uganda National Household Surveys 2009/10, the catastrophic impact of out-of-pocket health care payments is defined ...

Modeling workplace bullying using catastrophe theory.

Science.gov (United States)

Escartin, J; Ceja, L; Navarro, J; Zapf, D

2013-10-01

Workplace bullying is defined as negative behaviors directed at organizational members or their work context that occur regularly and repeatedly over a period of time. Employees' perceptions of psychosocial safety climate, workplace bullying victimization, and workplace bullying perpetration were assessed within a sample of nearly 5,000 workers. Linear and nonlinear approaches were applied in order to model both continuous and sudden changes in workplace bullying. More specifically, the present study examines whether a nonlinear dynamical systems model (i.e., a cusp catastrophe model) is superior to the linear combination of variables for predicting the effect of psychosocial safety climate and workplace bullying victimization on workplace bullying perpetration. According to the AICc, and BIC indices, the linear regression model fits the data better than the cusp catastrophe model. The study concludes that some phenomena, especially unhealthy behaviors at work (like workplace bullying), may be better studied using linear approaches as opposed to nonlinear dynamical systems models. This can be explained through the healthy variability hypothesis, which argues that positive organizational behavior is likely to present nonlinear behavior, while a decrease in such variability may indicate the occurrence of negative behaviors at work.

The nuclear peninsula

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zonabend, F.

1993-01-01

This book reports a study of the social and psychological implications for the people who work in or live near a high-risk industrial establishment. The establishment focussed on the studies is the nuclear reprocessing plant at la Hague on the Cotentin Peninsula in Normandy, France. The ways in which those working in the plant and living nearby come to terms with the risks in their daily lives is described. A sociology of the nuclear work place with its diversions and hierarchies is developed and an explanation offered for the often unexpected responses of the workers to the fear of irradiation and contamination. By analysing work practices and the language of the work-place it is shown how workers and locals can recognise the possibility of nuclear catastrophe while, at the same time, denying that it could ever happen to them. (UK)

Catastrophic health expenditure and its determinants in Kenya slum communities.

Science.gov (United States)

Buigut, Steven; Ettarh, Remare; Amendah, Djesika D

2015-05-14

In Kenya, where 60 to 80% of the urban residents live in informal settlements (frequently referred to as slums), out-of-pocket (OOP) payments account for more than a third of national health expenditures. However, little is known on the extent to which these OOP payments are associated with personal or household financial catastrophe in the slums. This paper seeks to examine the incidence and determinants of catastrophic health expenditure among urban slum communities in Kenya. We use a unique dataset on informal settlement residents in Kenya and various approaches that relate households OOP payments for healthcare to total expenditures adjusted for subsistence, or income. We classified households whose OOP was in excess of a predefined threshold as facing catastrophic health expenditures (CHE), and identified the determinants of CHE using multivariate logistic regression analysis. The results indicate that the proportion of households facing CHE varies widely between 1.52% and 28.38% depending on the method and the threshold used. A core set of variables were found to be key determinants of CHE. The number of working adults in a household and membership in a social safety net appear to reduce the risk of catastrophic expenditure. Conversely, seeking care in a public or private hospital increases the risk of CHE. This study suggests that a substantial proportion of residents of informal settlements in Kenya face CHE and would likely forgo health care they need but cannot afford. Mechanisms that pool risk and cost (insurance) are needed to protect slum residents from CHE and improve equity in health care access and payment.

CSL protein regulates transcription of genes required to prevent catastrophic mitosis in fission yeast.

Science.gov (United States)

Převorovský, Martin; Oravcová, Martina; Zach, Róbert; Jordáková, Anna; Bähler, Jürg; Půta, František; Folk, Petr

2016-11-16

For every eukaryotic cell to grow and divide, intricately coordinated action of numerous proteins is required to ensure proper cell-cycle progression. The fission yeast Schizosaccharomyces pombe has been instrumental in elucidating the fundamental principles of cell-cycle control. Mutations in S. pombe 'cut' (cell untimely torn) genes cause failed coordination between cell and nuclear division, resulting in catastrophic mitosis. Deletion of cbf11, a fission yeast CSL transcription factor gene, triggers a 'cut' phenotype, but the precise role of Cbf11 in promoting mitotic fidelity is not known. We report that Cbf11 directly activates the transcription of the acetyl-coenzyme A carboxylase gene cut6, and the biotin uptake/biosynthesis genes vht1 and bio2, with the former 2 implicated in mitotic fidelity. Cbf11 binds to a canonical, metazoan-like CSL response element (GTGGGAA) in the cut6 promoter. Expression of Cbf11 target genes shows apparent oscillations during the cell cycle using temperature-sensitive cdc25-22 and cdc10-M17 block-release experiments, but not with other synchronization methods. The penetrance of catastrophic mitosis in cbf11 and cut6 mutants is nutrient-dependent. We also show that drastic decrease in biotin availability arrests cell proliferation but does not cause mitotic defects. Taken together, our results raise the possibility that CSL proteins play conserved roles in regulating cell-cycle progression, and they could guide experiments into mitotic CSL functions in mammals.

Man is overcharged by nuclear energy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hauff, V.

1986-01-01

The author states four points against nuclear power: 1. Although the probability of a catastrophic accident is very low, the consequences will be enormous. 2. Extension of the nuclear power generation worldwide will increase the danger of proliferation of nuclear weapons. 3. Decommissioning of nuclear power plants and disposal of nuclear waste will be a problem for many generations. 4. Protection of nuclear facilities may lead to the eventual abandonment of the civil rights assured by law. The author gives priority to energy conservation; he states that an 80% utilization factor is achievable in cogeneration and district heating. He agress with C.F. Weizsaecker on the long-term relevance of solar energy as the main energy source, which would also help to reduce the CO 2 problem (heat-up of the earth atmosphere, destruction of tropical forests). Energy supply without nuclear power plants would also provide new jobs, since there is no energy source as capital-intensive and low in staff requirements as nuclear power. (GL) [de

Isotopic investigations in the area of the Tunguska catastrophe in 1908 year

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kolesnikov, E.M.

1988-01-01

The hypotheses of the annihilation and thermonuclear character of the Tunguska explosion have been tested by measuring inductive Ar-39 radioactivity from K and Ca in rocks and soil under the explosion epicentrum. Ar-39 was not detected though its estimated radioactivity was expected to be 100 times higher than the radio-metrical plant sensitivity. These results testify against the nuclear nature of the Tunguska explosion. The contents of 11 elements in the ultrasmall quantity of matter of the silicate microspherules isolated from catastrophe peat layer at the explosion site were measured by method of neutron activation analysis. It was demonstrated that the enrichment of microspherules by light and volatile elements (Al, Na, Zn, Cs) and the impoverishment by more heavy and hard volatile ones (Fe, Co, Sc). It was shown that the microspherules were not the product of differentiation of the terrestrial soil or of an ordinary meteorite material. It was demonstrated that Pb isotopic content in catastrophe peat layer had more Pb-204, Pb-207, Pb-208 than Pb-206 as compared with Pb isotopic content of other peat layers and common Pb in this area. In the peat column taken at the Ostraya hill area in three nearcatastrophe layers, small increases of isotopic C-13 was determined. Isotopic C effect in the peat layer is confirmed also for the North peatbog. Observed isotopic changes are not accounted for by climatic changes or other physico-chemical reasons. They seem to be related to preservation in the peat of matter resembling carbonaceous chrondrites of the Cl type or more probably of cometary matter enriched much more in volatile elements

Catastrophic Economic Consequences of Healthcare Payments: Effects on Poverty Estimates in Egypt, Jordan, and Palestine

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ahmed Shoukry Rashad

2015-11-01

Full Text Available Healthcare payments could drive households with no health insurance coverage into financial catastrophe, which might lead them to cut spending on necessities, sell assets, or use credit. In extreme cases, healthcare payments could have devastating consequences on the household economic status that would push them into extreme poverty. Using nationally representative surveys from three Arab countries, namely, Egypt, Jordan, and Palestine, this paper examines the incidence, intensity and distribution of catastrophic health payments, and assesses the poverty impact of out-of-pocket health payments (OOP. The OOP for healthcare were considered catastrophic if it exceeded 10% of a household’s total expenditure or 40% of non-food expenditure. The poverty impact was evaluated using poverty head counts and poverty gaps before and after OOP. Results show that OOP exacerbate households’ living severely in Egypt, pushing more than one-fifth of the population into a financial catastrophe and 3% into extreme poverty in 2011. However, in Jordan and Palestine, the disruptive impact of OOP remains modest over time. In the three countries, the catastrophic health payment is the problem of the better off households. Poverty alleviation policies should help reduce the reliance on OOP to finance healthcare. Moving toward universal health coverage could also be a promising option to protect households from the catastrophic economic consequences of health care payments.

Catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome: task force report summary.

Science.gov (United States)

Cervera, R; Rodríguez-Pintó, I

2014-10-01

The Task Force on Catastrophic Antiphospholipid Syndrome (CAPS) aimed to assess the current knowledge on pathogenesis, clinical and laboratory features, diagnosis and classification, precipitating factors and treatment of CAPS. This article summarizes the main aspects of its final report. © The Author(s) 2014 Reprints and permissions: sagepub.co.uk/journalsPermissions.nav.

The truth about nuclear energy - the forbidden choice

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lepage, Corinne

2011-01-01

In France, nuclear energy is a taboo topic. From the safety of nuclear power plants, to the real cost of this energy source and its constraints on our democracy, the lack of transparency is the key word. Since the Fukushima catastrophe, everything has changed: what would happen in France if such an accident would occur? Are we really prepare to this type of event? What is the weight of the nuclear lobby? In this book, the author, who is a former French Minister of environment and today a member of the European parliament, answers these legitimate questions coming from the public opinion

Vaginismus : Heightened Harm Avoidance and Pain Catastrophizing Cognitions

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Borg, Charmaine; Peters, Madelon L.; Schultz, Willibrord Weijmar; de Jong, Peter J.

Introduction. Catastrophic appraisal of experienced pain may promote hypervigilance and intense pain, while the personality trait of harm avoidance (HA) might prevent the occurrence of correcting such experiences. Women inflicted with vaginismus may enter a self-perpetuating downward spiral of

The Climate Catastrophe as Blockbuster

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Eskjær, Mikkel Fugl

2013-01-01

Modern disaster films constitute a specific cultural form that speaks to the anxieties of the “risk society.” This essay looks at how risks like climate change is presented and constructed in popular culture. It regards blockbuster representations as part of a wider discourse of “catastrophism......” within the realm of public climate change communication. For that reason, the essay centers on the interplay between news media and entertainment. It argues that blockbuster disaster films represent an inversion of traditional risk and disaster news....

Safety, danger and catastrophe inevitability in operation of safety-critical software algorithms: a possible new look at software safety analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Povyakalo, A.A.

2000-01-01

The paper provides basic definitions and describes the basic procedure of the Formal Qualitative Safety Analysis (FQSA) of critical software algorithms. The procedure is described by C-based pseudo-code. It uses the notion of weakest precondition and representation of a given critical algorithm by a Gurevich's Abstract State Mashine (GASM). For a given GASM and a given Catastrophe Condition the procedure results in a Catastrophe Inevitability Condition (it means that every sequence of algorithm steps lead to a catastrophe early or late), Danger Condition (it means that next step may lead to a catastrophe or make a catastrophe to be inevitable, but a catastrophe may be prevented yet), Safety Condition (it means that a next step can not lead to a catastrophe or make a catastrophe to be inevitable). The using of proposed procedure is illustrated by a simplest test example of algorithm. The FQSA provides a logical basis for PSA of critical algorithm. (author)

Catastrophic Outcomes in Free Tissue Transfer: A Six-Year Review of the NSQIP Database

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

David W. Grant

2014-01-01

Full Text Available Background. No studies report robust data on the national incidence and risk factors associated with catastrophic medical outcomes following free tissue transfer. Methods. The American College of Surgeons (ACS multicenter, prospective National Surgical Quality Improvement Program (NSQIP database was used to identify patients who underwent free tissue transfer between 2006 and 2011. Multivariable logistic regression was used for statistical analysis. Results. Over the 6-year study period 2,349 patients in the NSQIP database underwent a free tissue transfer procedure. One hundred and twenty-two patients had at least one catastrophic medical outcome (5.2%. These 122 patients had 151 catastrophic medical outcomes, including 93 postoperative respiratory failure events (4.0%, 14 pulmonary emboli (0.6%, 13 septic shock events (0.5%, 12 myocardial infarctions (0.5%, 6 cardiac arrests (0.3%, 4 strokes (0.2%, 1 coma (0.0%, and 8 deaths (0.3%. Total length of hospital stay was on average 14.7 days longer for patients who suffered a catastrophic medical complication (P<0.001. Independent risk factors were identified. Conclusions. Free tissue transfer is a proven and safe technique. Catastrophic medical complications were infrequent but added significantly to length of hospital stay and patient morbidity.

Catastrophe Bonds. From Structure to Strategy – A Cluster Analysis at European Level

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Laura-Gabriela CONSTANTIN

2014-12-01

Full Text Available As a core activity and discipline of corporate management and corporate governance, risk management is, especially nowadays, a central part in pursuing the sustainable development desiderates, both from the perspective of the firm and of the society as a whole.Considering the negative impact natural catastrophes have on the companies’ and countries’ competitiveness, the development of sustainable financial products that make a contribution to transferring the risk and allocating the capital in case of disasters stands for a continual preoccupation, especially for the (reinsurance industry, while the study of catastrophe bonds – insurance-linked securities – is of interest in the specialized literature. In this context, the scope of the present research is to expand the empirical studies within this field while examining the link between the structure of the catastrophe bonds and the risk management approach employed while accessing the capital markets through this transactions.The methodology entailed clustering a selection of transactions developed by European cedents based on the size of each issue and correlating the results with an innovative score, developed to encompass several important catastrophe bonds structural components.The findings reflect that the general structural elements of the financial transactions reflect closely the corporate approach regarding the innovative risk intermediation instruments for the examined catastrophe bonds deals. The outcomes also emphasize, as expected, that companies with a stronger presence on this market seem to have a more sophisticated risk management approach.

Remembering pain after surgery: a longitudinal examination of the role of pain catastrophizing in children's and parents' recall.

Science.gov (United States)

Noel, Melanie; Rabbitts, Jennifer A; Tai, Gabrielle G; Palermo, Tonya M

2015-05-01

Children's memories for pain play a powerful role in their pain experiences. Parents' memories may also influence children's pain experiences, by influencing parent-child interactions about pain and children's cognitions and behaviors. Pain catastrophizing of children and parents has been implicated as a factor underlying memory biases; however, this has not been empirically examined. The current longitudinal study is the first to examine the role of pain catastrophizing of children and parents in the development of their pain memories after surgery. Participants were 49 youth (32 girls) aged 10 to 18 years undergoing major surgery and their parents. One week before surgery, children and parents completed measures of pain catastrophizing. Two weeks after surgery (the acute recovery period), children and parents completed measures of child pain intensity and affect. Two to 4 months after surgery, children's and parents' memories of child pain intensity and affect were elicited. Hierarchical linear regression models revealed that over and above covariates, parent catastrophizing about their child's pain (magnification, rumination) accounted for a significant portion of variance in children's affective and parents' sensory pain memories. Although parent catastrophizing had a direct effect on pain memories, mediation analyses revealed that child catastrophizing (helplessness) indirectly influenced children's and parents' pain memories through the child's postoperative pain experience. Findings highlight that aspects of catastrophic thinking about child pain before surgery are linked to distressing pain memories several months later. Although both child and parent catastrophizing influence pain memory development, parent catastrophizing is most influential to both children's and parents' evolving cognitions about child pain.

Timber price dynamics following a natural catastrophe

Science.gov (United States)

Jeffrey P. Prestemon; Thomas P. Holmes

2000-01-01

Catastrophic shocks to existing stocks of a renewable resource can cause long-run price shifts. With timber, these long-run price shifts may be accompanied by a short-run price drop due to salvage. Hurricane Hugo damaged 20 percent of southern pine timber in the South Carolina Coastal Plain in 1989. To estimate the...

The 1985 Nevado del Ruiz volcano catastrophe: anatomy and retrospection

Science.gov (United States)

Voight, Barry

1990-12-01

This paper seeks to analyze in an objective way the circumstances and events that contributed to the 1985 Nevado del Ruiz catastrophe, in order to provide useful guidelines for future emergencies. The paper is organized into two principal parts. In the first part, an Anatomy of the catastrophe is developed as a step-by-step chronicle of events and actions taken by individuals and organizations during the period November 1984 through November 1985. This chronicle provides the essential background for the crucial events of November 13. This year-long period is broken down further to emphasize important chapters: the gradual awareness of the awakening of the volcano; a long period of institutional skepticism reflecting an absence of credibility; the closure of the credibility gap with the September 11 phreatic eruption, followed by an intensive effort to gird for the worst; and a detailed account of the day of reckoning. The second part of the paper, Retrospection, examines the numerous complicated factors that influenced the catastrophic outcome, and attempts to cull a few "lessons from Armero" in order to avoid similar occurrences in the future. In a nutshell, the government on the whole acted responsibly but was not willing to bear the economic or political costs of early evacuation or a false alarm. Science accurately foresaw the hazards but was insufficiently precise to render reliable warning of the crucial event at the last possible minute. Catastrophe was therefore a calculated risk, and this combination - the limitations of prediction/detection, the refusal to bear a false alarm and the lack of will to act on the uncertain information available - provided its immediate and most obvious causes. But because the crucial event occurred just two days before the Armero emergency management plan was to be critically examined and improved, the numerous circumstances which delayed progress of emergency management over the previous year also may be said to have

Effects of a Pain Catastrophizing Induction on Sensory Testing in Women with Chronic Low Back Pain: A Pilot Study

OpenAIRE

Taub, Chloe J.; Sturgeon, John A.; Johnson, Kevin A.; Mackey, Sean C.; Darnall, Beth D.

2017-01-01

Pain catastrophizing, a pattern of negative cognitive-emotional responses to actual or anticipated pain, maintains chronic pain and undermines response to treatments. Currently, precisely how pain catastrophizing influences pain processing is not well understood. In experimental settings, pain catastrophizing has been associated with amplified pain processing. This study sought to clarify pain processing mechanisms via experimental induction of pain catastrophizing. Forty women with chronic l...

Death, Catastrophe, and the Significance of Tragedy

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jennifer Ballengee

2014-05-01

Full Text Available This NANO note will examine the tension between representation, memorial, and the catastrophe of death that emerges in the space of tragedy, as the problem arises in two quite different works: Oedipus at Colonus, a fairly typical fifth-century Greek tragedy, and Falling Man, Don DeLillo’s novel that, in its attempt to address the events of 9/11, reflects in form and subject matter many of Aristotle’s terms of tragic representation. It is not the intent of this note to engage with the recent proliferation of work in “performance theory.” Rather than being concerned with an imagined exchange between audience and actor, this study examines how the supplementary relationship of gesture and speech in tragedy disrupts the public/private distinction, and how this articulation effects and enables the public memorialization of death. Thus, this paper will consider the representation of death as an event whose catastrophic, and somewhat mysterious, collision of the public and the private lends it its tragic significance.

Catastrophic failure in complex socio-technical systems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Weir, D.

2004-01-01

This paper reviews the sequences leading to catastrophic failures in complex socio-technical systems. It traces some of the elements of an analytic framework to that proposed by Beer in Decision and Control, first published in 1966, and argues that these ideas are centrally relevant to a topic on which research interest has developed subsequently, the study of crises, catastrophes and disasters in complex socio-technical systems in high technology sectors. But while the system perspective is central, it is not by itself entirely adequate. The problems discussed cannot be discussed simply in terms of system parameters like variety, redundancy and complexity. Much empirical research supports the view that these systems typically operate in degraded mode. The degradations may be primarily initiated within the social components of the socio-technical system. Such variables as hierarchical position, actors' motivations and intentions are relevant to explain the ways in which communication systems typically operate to filter out messages from lower participants and to ignore the 'soft signals' issuing from small-scale and intermittent malfunctions. (author)

Reverse Catastrophe

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Przemysław Czapliński

2015-01-01

Full Text Available The principal notion of the article–a “backward catastrophe”– stands for a catastrophe which occurs unseen until it becomes recognized and which broadens its destructive activity until it has been recognized. This concept in the article has been referred to the Shoah. The main thesis is that the recognition of the actual influence of the Holocaust began in Polish culture in the mid-1980s (largely it started with the film by Claude Lanzmann Shoah and the essay by Jan Błoński Biedni Polacy patrzą na getto [“The Poor Poles Look at the Ghetto”], that is when the question: “What happened to the Jews”, assumes the form: “Did the things that happened to the Jews, also happened to the Poles?”. Cognitive and ethical reorientation leads to the revealing of the hidden consequences of the Holocaust reaching as far as the present day and undermining the foundations of collective identity. In order to understand this situation (and adopt potentially preventive actions Polish society should be recognized as a postcatastrophic one.

Peace Education, Domestic Tranquility, and Democracy: The Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Disaster as Domestic Violence

Science.gov (United States)

Ide, Kanako

2014-01-01

This article is an attempt to develop a theory of peace education through an examination of the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear disaster. It examines why Japan did not avoid this terrible nuclear disaster. This is an educational issue, because one of the major impacts of Fukushima's catastrophe is that it indicates the failure of peace education. In…

The Chernobyl catastrophe consequences in the Republic of Belarus. National report

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Konoplya, E.F.

1996-03-01

The estimation of radioecological, medico-biological, economic and social consequences of the Chernobyl catastrophe has shown that unimaginable damage was incurred on Belarus and its territory became the zone of ecological calamity. The Chernobyl NPP catastrophe has led to the contamination of almost the fourth part of the territory of Belarus where there lived 2,2 million people. The damage caused to the republic by the catastrophe makes up 32 annual budgets of the republic of the pre-accident period in account for the 30-years period for its overcoming. Radioecological situation in Belarus is characterized by complexity and heterogeneous contamination of the territory by different radionuclides and their presence on all the components of the environment. It stipulates the plurality of ways of external and internal irradiation of the population and jeopardizes its health. There is registered the worsening of the population's health, of evacuated and inhabiting the contaminated areas as well, with increase of a number of somatic diseases, including oncological diseases, there are disorders in the metabolic processes and functions of the main systems of the organism. The demographic indices are decreasing. Particular concern causes the children's morbidity growth and genetic consequences of the accident. The contamination of agricultural lands has stipulated in the neighboring the Chernobyl NPP zone the impossibility of their use for food production. On the other lands it has been required to re-profile the farms and create new technologies of the agricultural production. There have been revealed the destructive tendencies in all spheres of the life activity of people who experienced radiation effects. The processes of social adaptation and socio-psychological support of the population require considerable optimization. In spite of that for ten years passed after the catastrophe the discrepancy of its estimations has not been overcome completely. At the same time

The role of catastrophic geomorphic events in central Appalachian landscape evolution

Science.gov (United States)

Jacobson, R.B.; Miller, A.J.; Smith, J.A.

1989-01-01

Catastrophic geomorphic events are taken as those that are large, sudden, and rare on human timescales. In the nonglaciated, low-seismicity central Appalachians, these are dominantly floods and landslides. Evaluation of the role of catastrophic events in landscape evolution includes assessment of their contributions to denudation and formation of prominent landscape features, and how they vary through space and time. Tropical storm paths and topographic barriers at the Blue Ridge and Allegheny Front create significant climatic variability across the Appalachians. For moderate floods, the influence of basin geology is apparent in modifying severity of flooding, but for the most extreme events, flood discharges relate mainly to rainfall characteristics such as intensity, duration, storm size, and location. Landslide susceptibility relates more directly to geologic controls that determine what intensity and duration of rainfall will trigger slope instability. Large floods and landslides are not necessarily effective in producing prominent geomorphic features. Large historic floods in the Piedmont have been minimally effective in producing prominent and persistent geomorphic features. In contrast, smaller floods in the Valley and Ridge produced erosional and depositional features that probably will require thousands of years to efface. Scars and deposits of debris slide-avalanches triggered on sandstone ridges recover slowly and persist much longer than scars and deposits of smaller landslides triggered on finer-grained regolith, even though the smaller landslides may have eroded greater aggregate volume. The surficial stratigraphic record can be used to extend the spatial and temporal limits of our knowledge of catastrophic events. Many prominent alluvial and colluvial landforms in the central Appalachians are composed of sediments that were deposited by processes similar to those observed in historic catastrophic events. Available stratigraphic evidence shows two

Applying Catastrophe Theory to an Information-Processing Model of Problem Solving in Science Education

Science.gov (United States)

Stamovlasis, Dimitrios; Tsaparlis, Georgios

2012-01-01

In this study, we test an information-processing model (IPM) of problem solving in science education, namely the working memory overload model, by applying catastrophe theory. Changes in students' achievement were modeled as discontinuities within a cusp catastrophe model, where working memory capacity was implemented as asymmetry and the degree…

A model of pathways to artificial superintelligence catastrophe for risk and decision analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Barrett, Anthony M.; Baum, Seth D.

2017-03-01

An artificial superintelligence (ASI) is an artificial intelligence that is significantly more intelligent than humans in all respects. Whilst ASI does not currently exist, some scholars propose that it could be created sometime in the future, and furthermore that its creation could cause a severe global catastrophe, possibly even resulting in human extinction. Given the high stakes, it is important to analyze ASI risk and factor the risk into decisions related to ASI research and development. This paper presents a graphical model of major pathways to ASI catastrophe, focusing on ASI created via recursive self-improvement. The model uses the established risk and decision analysis modelling paradigms of fault trees and influence diagrams in order to depict combinations of events and conditions that could lead to AI catastrophe, as well as intervention options that could decrease risks. The events and conditions include select aspects of the ASI itself as well as the human process of ASI research, development and management. Model structure is derived from published literature on ASI risk. The model offers a foundation for rigorous quantitative evaluation and decision-making on the long-term risk of ASI catastrophe.

Catastrophic costs potentially averted by tuberculosis control in India and South Africa: a modelling study

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Verguet, Stéphane; Riumallo-Herl, Carlos; Gomez, Gabriela B.; Menzies, Nicolas A.; Houben, Rein M. G. J.; Sumner, Tom; Lalli, Marek; White, Richard G.; Salomon, Joshua A.; Cohen, Ted; Foster, Nicola; Chatterjee, Susmita; Sweeney, Sedona; Baena, Inés Garcia; Lönnroth, Knut; Weil, Diana E.; Vassall, Anna

2017-01-01

The economic burden on households affected by tuberculosis through costs to patients can be catastrophic. WHO's End TB Strategy recognises and aims to eliminate these potentially devastating economic effects. We assessed whether aggressive expansion of tuberculosis services might reduce catastrophic

Factors affecting catastrophic health expenditure and impoverishment from medical expenses in China: policy implications of universal health insurance.

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Ye; Wu, Qunhong; Xu, Ling; Legge, David; Hao, Yanhua; Gao, Lijun; Ning, Ning; Wan, Gang

2012-09-01

To assess the degree to which the Chinese people are protected from catastrophic household expenditure and impoverishment from medical expenses and to explore the health system and structural factors influencing the first of these outcomes. Data were derived from the Fourth National Health Service Survey. An analysis of catastrophic health expenditure and impoverishment from medical expenses was undertaken with a sample of 55 556 households of different characteristics and located in rural and urban settings in different parts of the country. Logistic regression was used to identify the determinants of catastrophic health expenditure. The rate of catastrophic health expenditure was 13.0%; that of impoverishment was 7.5%. Rates of catastrophic health expenditure were higher among households having members who were hospitalized, elderly, or chronically ill, as well as in households in rural or poorer regions. A combination of adverse factors increased the risk of catastrophic health expenditure. Families enrolled in the urban employee or resident insurance schemes had lower rates of catastrophic health expenditure than those enrolled in the new rural corporative scheme. The need for and use of health care, demographics, type of benefit package and type of provider payment method were the determinants of catastrophic health expenditure. Although China has greatly expanded health insurance coverage, financial protection remains insufficient. Policy-makers should focus on designing improved insurance plans by expanding the benefit package, redesigning cost sharing arrangements and provider payment methods and developing more effective expenditure control strategies.

The Crisis in Radiochemistry and Nuclear Chemistry Education

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hoffman, D C

2005-01-01

A brief summary of the current status of radiochemistry and nuclear chemistry in the U. S. and abroad will be given. Current and future needs for scientists in these fields, especially in the U. S., will be discussed. Challenges that must be met in order to reverse the ''catastrophic'' downward trend in the numbers of students, faculty, and university programs in radiochemistry and nuclear chemistry will be considered, and some potential ways to reinvigorate and expand relevant university research and educational programs will be suggested

Catastrophic out-of-pocket payments for health and poverty nexus: evidence from Senegal.

Science.gov (United States)

Séne, Ligane Massamba; Cissé, Momath

2015-09-01

Out-of-pocket payments are the primary source through which health expenditure is met in Senegal. However, these payments are financial burdens that lead to impoverishment when they become catastrophic. The purpose of this study is to cast light on the determinants of catastrophic household out-of-pocket health expenditures and to assess their implications on poverty. The 2011 poverty monitoring survey is used in this study. This survey aims to draw poverty profiles and to highlight the socio-economic characteristics of different social groups. In line with the concerns raised by the new Supplemental Poverty Measure, poverty statistics are adjusted to take into account household health expenditures and to estimate their impoverishing effects. To identify the determinants of the magnitude of catastrophic health expenditure, we implement a seemingly unrelated equations system of Tobit regressions to take into account censoring through a conditional mixed-process estimator procedure. We identify major causes of catastrophic expenditures, such as the level of overall health spending, the expensiveness of health goods and services, the characteristics of health facilities, the health stock shocks, the lack of insurance, etc. Results show evidence that catastrophic health expenditures jeopardize household welfare for some people that fall into poverty as a result of negative effects on disposable income and disruption of the material living standards of households. Our findings warrant further policy improvements to minimize the financial risks of out-of-pocket health expenditures and increase the efficiency of health care system for more effective poverty reduction strategies.

Nuclear energy, a French neurosis - After Fukushima, when is the end?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Piro, Patrick

2012-01-01

With 58 reactors in operation, France is at 75% a nuclear-dependent country for power generation. For forty years no calling into question of this policy has been possible. The Fukushima catastrophe of March 11, 2011 has changed the deal. Several countries, like Germany, Switzerland, Belgium and Italy have taken the decision to get out of nuclear energy. In France, the taboo question of its abandonment has moved to the front of the scene. Some political parties have proposed a significant reduction of the nuclear share in the energy mix while some 'zero nuclear' scenarios are already on the table. (J.S.)

Water supply impacts of nuclear fall

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hobbs, B.F.; Luo, Y.; Maciejowski, M.E.; Chester, C.V.

1989-01-01

“Nuclear winter,” more properly called “nuclear fall,” could be caused by injection of large amounts of dust into the atmosphere. Besides causing a decrease in temperature, it could be accompanied by “nuclear drought,” a catastrophic decrease in precipitation. Dry land agriculture would then be impossible, and municipal, industrial, and irrigation water supplies would be diminished. It has been argued that nuclear winter/fall poses a much greater threat to human survival than do fall out or the direct impacts of a conflict. However, this does not appear to be true, at least for the U.S. Even under the unprecedented drought that could result from nuclear fall, water supplies would be available for many essential activities. For the most part, ground water supplies would be relatively invulnerable to nuclear drought, and adequate surface supplies would be available for potable uses. This assumes that conveyance facilities and power supplies survive a conflict largely intact or can be repaired

Household catastrophic healthcare expenditure and impoverishment due to rotavirus gastroenteritis requiring hospitalization in Malaysia.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Tharani Loganathan

Full Text Available While healthcare costs for rotavirus gastroenteritis requiring hospitalization may be burdensome on households in Malaysia, exploration on the distribution and catastrophic impact of these expenses on households are lacking.We assessed the economic burden, levels and distribution of catastrophic healthcare expenditure, the poverty impact on households and inequities related to healthcare payments for acute gastroenteritis requiring hospitalization in Malaysia.A two-year prospective, hospital-based study was conducted from 2008 to 2010 in an urban (Kuala Lumpur and rural (Kuala Terengganu setting in Malaysia. All children under the age of 5 years admitted for acute gastroenteritis were included. Patients were screened for rotavirus and information on healthcare expenditure was obtained.Of the 658 stool samples collected at both centers, 248 (38% were positive for rotavirus. Direct and indirect costs incurred were significantly higher in Kuala Lumpur compared with Kuala Terengganu (US$222 Vs. US$45; p<0.001. The mean direct and indirect costs for rotavirus gastroenteritis consisted 20% of monthly household income in Kuala Lumpur, as compared with only 5% in Kuala Terengganu. Direct medical costs paid out-of-pocket caused 141 (33% households in Kuala Lumpur to experience catastrophic expenditure and 11 (3% households to incur poverty. However in Kuala Terengganu, only one household (0.5% experienced catastrophic healthcare expenditure and none were impoverished. The lowest income quintile in Kuala Lumpur was more likely to experience catastrophic payments compared to the highest quintile (87% vs 8%. The concentration index for out-of-pocket healthcare payments was closer to zero at Kuala Lumpur (0.03 than at Kuala Terengganu (0.24.While urban households were wealthier, healthcare expenditure due to gastroenteritis had more catastrophic and poverty impact on the urban poor. Universal rotavirus vaccination would reduce both disease burden and health

Development of the Catastrophe Bonds and their correlation with other financial instruments

OpenAIRE

Čavojec, Ján

2009-01-01

This master thesis discusses the niche of reinsurance business -- catastrophe bonds. It provides a brief description of reinsurance in general, insurance-linked securities and catastrophe bonds. The goal of this thesis is to describe the development of cat bond market and the influence of economic and natural shocks on it. In order to analyze the effect, quarter issuance data are used together with Swiss Re Cat Bonds return indexes. In addition, several other variables (i.e. Munich Re and Swi...

The year of the cat: Taxing nuclear risk with the help of capital markets

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Eberl, Jakob; Jus, Darko

2012-01-01

This paper proposes new regulation for nuclear power reactors aimed at increasing their safety. We begin by describing how limited liability leads to risk-loving behaviour in nuclear power companies and unsafe nuclear power reactors. By reviewing current regulatory regimes, we show that this issue is not being sufficiently addressed today. Therefore, we evaluate five regulatory instruments: (1) safety regulation, (2) minimum equity requirements, (3) mandatory insurance, (4) risk-sharing pools, and (5) catastrophe bonds. We conclude that any of these instruments either cannot be recommended in its pure form or is infeasible in reality. We therefore propose a new approach that, in its core, consists of a two-stage procedure. In the first stage, capital markets assess the risk stemming from each nuclear reactor via catastrophe bonds. In the second step, the regulator uses this private risk assessment and intervenes by charging an actuarially fair premium in the form of a Pigouvian risk tax. Society ultimately acts as an explicit insurer for nuclear risk and is, on average, fairly compensated for the risk it is taking over. - Highlights: ► Limited liability leads to excessive risk-taking in nuclear power companies. ► Current regulation does not address this issue sufficiently. ► We evaluate five regulatory instruments and explain their shortcomings. ► We propose a market-based nuclear risk tax as a new regulatory instrument.

GLACIER DEGRADATION AND CATASTROPHIC MUDFLOWS ORIGIN FROM THE MODERN GLACIAL-MORAINE BODIES IN THE ELBRUS REGION

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

E. A. Zolotarev

2012-01-01

Full Text Available Mechanism of formation of the catastrophic mudflows in different glacial valleys of Elbrus region at the present stage of glacial degradation is described. The important role of the buried ice in the formation of catastrophic mudflows that affected Tyrnyauz in the XX century was revealed as a result of remote monitoring of changes in glacial-moraine complex of Kayarta river. The dynamics of glacial lakes in the Adyl-Su valley in the Bashkara Glacier region was described and probability of their breakthrough was estimated. The quantitative indicators of the dynamics of the landslide in the Kubasanty valley were obtained as a result of remote monitoring, and its influence on the formation of catastrophic mudflows is discovered. Various possible methods of catastrophic mudflows prevention not requiring expensive protective constructions are discussed.

The application of catastrophe theory to image analysis

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Kuijper, A.; Florack, L.M.J.

2001-01-01

In order to investigate the deep structure of Gaussian scale space images, one needs to understand the behaviour of critical points under the inuence of blurring. We show how the mathematical framework of catastrophe theory can be used to describe the various different types of annihilations and the

Three Solvable Matrix Models of a Quantum Catastrophe

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Levai, G.; Růžička, František; Znojil, Miloslav

2014-01-01

Roč. 53, č. 9 (2014), s. 2875-2890 ISSN 0020-7748 Institutional support: RVO:61389005 Keywords : quantum theory * PT symmetry * Finite-dimensional non-Hermitian Hamiltonians * exceptional-point localization * quantum theory of catastrophes * methods of computer algebra Subject RIV: BE - Theoretical Physics Impact factor: 1.184, year: 2014

Genesis and servitudes of nuclear

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Debeir, Jean-Claude; Deleage, Jean-Paul; Hemery, Daniel

2011-01-01

This article is a chapter of a book published by the authors after the catastrophe of Chernobyl. They first propose a history of nuclear in four main stages: first, from the atom of physicists to the bomb (1932-1942), second, the bomb, and the American policy of atomic monopoly and its failure (1940-1956), third, the beginnings of the nuclear energy (1952-1969), and the recession (1974-?). Then, they discuss electro-nuclear energy as the last energetic component of the capital accumulation regime based on mass consumption and issued the great depression of the 1930's. In the next part, they identify some historical peculiarities of nuclear, notably with an emergence of discontinuities in the energetic process, the power to the science, the joining between the energy system and the war system, the nationalisation of energy, and the trend in capital valorisation and restructuring

The impact of possible climate catastrophes on global warming policy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Baranzini, Andrea; Chesney, Marc; Morisset, Jacques

2003-01-01

Recent studies on global warming have introduced the inherent uncertainties associated with the costs and benefits of climate policies and have often shown that abatement policies are likely to be less aggressive or postponed in comparison to those resulting from traditional cost-benefit analyses (CBA). Yet, those studies have failed to include the possibility of sudden climate catastrophes. The aim of this paper is to account simultaneously for possible continuous and discrete damages resulting from global warming, and to analyse their implications on the optimal path of abatement policies. Our approach is related to the new literature on investment under uncertainty, and relies on some recent developments of the real option in which we incorporated negative jumps (climate catastrophes) in the stochastic process corresponding to the net benefits associated with the abatement policies. The impacts of continuous and discrete climatic risks can therefore be considered separately. Our numerical applications lead to two main conclusions: (i) gradual, continuous uncertainty in the global warming process is likely to delay the adoption of abatement policies as found in previous studies, with respect to the standard CBA; however (ii) the possibility of climate catastrophes accelerates the implementation of these policies as their net discounted benefits increase significantly

Chernobyl: Endless horror. Late effects of the reactor catastrophe

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Roethlein, B.

1996-01-01

Ten years after the accident, the people of Chernobyl are trying to live a normal life, but the problems resulting from the catastrophe have not been solved. Some of them are just starting to emerge. (orig.) [de

The reciprocal relationship between daily fatigue and catastrophizing following cancer treatment: Affect and physical activity as potential mediators.

Science.gov (United States)

Müller, Fabiola; Stephenson, Ellen; DeLongis, Anita; Smink, Ans; Van Ginkel, Robert J; Tuinman, Marrit A; Hagedoorn, Mariët

2018-03-01

Fatigue is a distressing symptom many cancer patients experience even after completion of treatment. Although theory and empirical evidence indicate that negative cognitions perpetuate fatigue after completion of treatment, insight into how this process unfolds in daily life is limited. This study used an intensive longitudinal design to investigate the reciprocal relationship between catastrophizing and fatigue in daily life and whether affective and behavioral processes mediate these relationships. Post-treatment colorectal cancer patients (n = 101) completed daily diaries (14 days, 3 times daily) regarding their fatigue, catastrophizing, positive and negative affect, and physical activity. Multilevel modeling was applied to investigate within-person associations within days. Analyses revealed a positive reciprocal relationship between fatigue and catastrophizing throughout the day. That is, high levels of catastrophizing were associated with increases in fatigue within patients. In turn, but to a lesser extent, high levels of fatigue predicted increases in catastrophizing at the next assessment. Low positive affect and high negative affect mediated the effect of catastrophizing on increases in fatigue. Only negative affect mediated the reverse relationship. Physical activity did not mediate either relationship. This study provides evidence for a mutually reinforcing relationship between catastrophizing and fatigue in daily life, which might explain the perpetuation of fatigue after completion of cancer treatment. Fatigue-specific cognitive behavior therapy could be improved by educating patients about this daily reciprocal relationship, train them to quickly replace catastrophizing thoughts in daily life, and help them to cope with affective changes induced by fatigue. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Ethical Issues in Nuclear Waste Management

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Oughton, Deborah

2001-01-01

Nuclear experts claim that the health risks from radioactive waste disposal are low compared to other environmental hazards, yet the general public is sceptical of the industry's ability to guarantee acceptable safety standards. Many allude to what might be deemed morally relevant factors, such as potential harms to future generations, possibly catastrophic consequences and environmental effects. Industry has often tended to respond with a claim that the public has an irrational perception of radiation risks, particularly those from man-made rather than natural sources. From a philosophical point of view it is interesting to consider exactly how nuclear risks might differ from other hazards, not least to evaluate which ethically relevant factors could be used to defend the stringent demands made by society for nuclear waste disposal

Prediction of catastrophe theory for heavy-ion collisions at high energies

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kuchin, I.A.

2002-01-01

Studying the nature of limiting fragmentation of nuclei in high energy heavy-ion collisions has shown that the dynamic system of the nucleus is inclined to enter a nonequilibrium state, schottische and disintegrate on separate nucleons under conditions typical to each collision. There is a question: how the phenomenon of multifragmentation is possible here, i. e. formation of several nucleus with masses on interval from a nucleon up to a material nucleus A in a final state. What is it - debris of a material nucleus or newly created daughter nuclei? The purpose of offered report is discussion of this question. The initial for us statement is taken from the theory of dynamic systems. Chaos is a result of hashing of phase space which is carried out by means of operations of distension and compression. The appropriate transformation are called baker-transformation or Smale's horseshoe. The geometrical picture of chaos is a folded relief of multi-dimensional phase space. The stochastic amplification is understood as growth of folder number and their size. In typical interactions of massive ions, chaos formation conditions are provided automatically due to alternate force influence of Coulomb and Yukawa fields - compression is replaced by distension, and distension - by compression. Extending this representation on a case of massive ion collision, we supplement it accounting a possibility of constituents (nucleons) strong interaction on small distances. The easiest way to make it is approximating minima of potential function V(x, c) in catastrophe theory by rectangular holes of Fermi-gas in nuclear physics. The catastrophe theory is necessary to find connection between channels of fragments birth of different charge and masses, proceeding from the general form of a multi-dimensional phase space relief (a kind of potential function). The main result which can be taken from this theory at the given stage of researches consists in the general form of a curve of a

Stochastic catastrophe theory and instabilities in plasma turbulence

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rajkovic, Milan; Skoric, Milos

2009-01-01

Full text: A Langevin equation (LE) describing evolution of turbulence amplitude in plasma is analyzed from the aspect of stochastic catastrophe theory (SCT) so that turbulent plasma is considered as a stochastic gradient system. According to SCT the dynamics of the system is completely determined by the stochastic potential function and the maximum likelihood estimates of stable and unstable equilibria are associated with the modes and anti-modes, respectively, of the system's stationary probability density function. First order phase transitions occur at degenerate equilibrium points and the potential function at these points may be represented in a generic way. Since the diffusion function of plasma LE is not constant the probability density function (pdf) is not a reliable estimator of the number of stable states. We show that the generalized pdf represented as the product of the stationary pdf and the diffusion function is a reliable estimator of the stable states and that it can be evaluated from the zero mean crossing analysis of plasma turbulence signal. Stochastic bifurcations, and particularly the sudden (catastrophic) ones, are recognized from the pdf's obtained by the zero crossing analysis and we illustrate the applications of SCT in plasma turbulence on data obtained from the MAST (Mega Ampere Spherical Tokamak) for low (L), high (H) and unstable dithering (L/H) confinement regimes. The relationship of the transformation invariant zero-crossing function and SCT is shown to provide important information about the nature of edge localized modes (ELMs) and L-H transition. Finally we show that ELMs occur as a result of catastrophic (hard) bifurcations ruling out the self-organized criticality scenario for their origin. (author)

The World Nuclear Industry Status Report 2017

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Schneider, Mycle; Froggatt, Antony; Hazemann, Julie; Katsuta, Tadahiro; Ramana, M.V.; Rodriguez, Juan C.; Ruedinger, Andreas; Stienne, Agnes

2017-09-01

The World Nuclear Industry Status Report 2017 (WNISR2017) provides a comprehensive overview of nuclear power plant data, including information on operation, production and construction. The WNISR assesses the status of new-build programs in current nuclear countries as well as in potential newcomer countries. The WNISR2017 edition includes a new assessment from an equity analyst view of the financial crisis of the nuclear sector and some of its biggest industrial players. The Fukushima Status Report provides not only an update on onsite and offsite issues six years after the beginning of the catastrophe, but also the latest official and new independent cost evaluations of the disaster. Focus chapters provide in-depth analysis of France, Japan, South Korea, the United Kingdom and the United States. The Nuclear Power vs. Renewable Energy chapter provides global comparative data on investment, capacity, and generation from nuclear, wind and solar energy. Finally, Annex 1 presents a country-by-country overview of all other countries operating nuclear power plants

Catastrophe Theory: A Unified Model for Educational Change.

Science.gov (United States)

Cryer, Patricia; Elton, Lewis

1990-01-01

Catastrophe Theory and Herzberg's theory of motivation at work was used to create a model of change that unifies and extends Lewin's two separate stage and force field models. This new model is used to analyze the behavior of academics as they adapt to the changing university environment. (Author/MLW)

Metallicity at interphase boundaries due to polar catastrophe induced by charge density discontinuity

KAUST Repository

Albar, Arwa

2018-02-09

The electronic properties of interphase boundaries are of basic importance for most materials, particularly when those properties deviate strongly from the bulk behavior. We introduce a mechanism that can result in metallicity at stoichiometric interphase boundaries between semiconductors based on the idea of polar catastrophe, which is usually considered only in the context of heterostructures. To this end, we perform ab initio calculations within density functional theory to investigate the electronic states at stoichiometric SnO/SnO2 (110) interphase boundaries. In this system, one would not expect polar catastrophe to have a role according to state-of-the-art theory because the interface lacks formal charge discontinuity. However, we observe the formation of a hole gas between the semiconductors SnO and SnO2. To explain these findings, we provide a generalized theory based on the idea that the charge density discontinuity between SnO and SnO2, a consequence of lattice mismatch, drives a polar catastrophe scenario. As a result, SnO/SnO2 (110) interphase boundaries can develop metallicity depending on the grain size. The concept of metallicity due to polar catastrophe induced by charge density discontinuity is of general validity and applies to many interphase boundaries with lattice mismatch.

A CATASTROPHIC-CUM-RESTORATIVE QUEUING SYSTEM WITH CORRELATED BATCH ARRIVALS AND VARIABLE CAPACITY

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Rakesh Kumar

2008-07-01

Full Text Available In this paper, we study a catastrophic-cum-restorative queuing system with correlated batch arrivals and service in batches of variable sizes. We perform the transient analysis of the queuing model. We obtain the Laplace Transform of the probability generating function of system size. Finally, some particular cases of the model have been derived and discussed. Keywords: Queue length, Catastrophes, Correlated batch arrivals, Broadband services, Variable service capacity, and Restoration.

Classical and quantum fold catastrophe in the presence of axial symmetry

Science.gov (United States)

Dhont, G.; Zhilinskií, B. I.

2008-11-01

We introduce a family of Hamiltonians with two degrees of freedom, axial symmetry and complete integrability. The potential function depends on coordinates and one control parameter. A fold catastrophe typically occurs in such a family of potentials and its consequences on the global dynamics are investigated through the energy-momentum map which defines the singular fibration of the four-dimensional phase space. The two inequivalent local canonical forms of the catastrophe are presented: the first case corresponds to the appearance of a second sheet in the image of the energy-momentum map while the second case is associated with the breaking of an already existing second sheet. A special effort is placed on the description of the singularities. In particular, the existence of cuspidal tori is related to a second-order contact point between the energy level set and the reduced phase space. The quantum mechanical aspects of the changes induced by the fold catastrophe are investigated with the quantum eigenstates computed for an octic potential and are interpreted through the quantum-classical correspondence. We note that the singularity exposed in this paper is not an obstruction to a global definition of action-angle variables.

Public acceptance of nuclear power - Some ethical issues

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Arungu-Olende, S; Francis, J M; Gaspar, D de; Nashed, W; Nwosu, B C.E.; Rose, D J; Shinn, R L [World Council of Churches, Working Committee on Church and Society, Energy Advisory Group, Geneva (Switzerland)

1977-12-15

With the increased public perception of the future scale of dependence on nuclear energy a debate has started, raising the level of public awareness of the social, political and technical risks that are inevitably associated with the large-scale and accelerating adoption of nuclear power generation. The nuclear industry has given a mixed response to this debate, to accusations of irresponsibility and to demands for more specific attention to the recognized hazards of the fuel cycle. In this situation, non-governmental bodies such as the World Council of Churches, has taken the responsibility to examine the issues so far identified and to place these in a social and ethical context. The W.C.C. general position on nuclear energy is presented. It includes the risk associated with nuclear technology; nuclear waste disposal; catastrophic accidents; accidents in reprocessing plants, low-level radiation; nuclear weapons; security; nuclear energy and a new international economic order; ethical and religious perspectives.

Public acceptance of nuclear power - Some ethical issues

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Arungu-Olende, S.; Francis, J.M.; Gaspar, D. de; Nashed, W.; Nwosu, B.C.E.; Rose, D.J.; Shinn, R.L.

1977-01-01

With the increased public perception of the future scale of dependence on nuclear energy a debate has started, raising the level of public awareness of the social, political and technical risks that are inevitably associated with the large-scale and accelerating adoption of nuclear power generation. The nuclear industry has given a mixed response to this debate, to accusations of irresponsibility and to demands for more specific attention to the recognized hazards of the fuel cycle. In this situation, non-governmental bodies such as the World Council of Churches, has taken the responsibility to examine the issues so far identified and to place these in a social and ethical context. The W.C.C. general position on nuclear energy is presented. It includes the risk associated with nuclear technology; nuclear waste disposal; catastrophic accidents; accidents in reprocessing plants, low-level radiation; nuclear weapons; security; nuclear energy and a new international economic order; ethical and religious perspectives

Co-delivery of paclitaxel and cetuximab by nanodiamond enhances mitotic catastrophe and tumor inhibition.

Science.gov (United States)

Lin, Yu-Wei; Raj, Emmanuel Naveen; Liao, Wei-Siang; Lin, Johnson; Liu, Kuang-Kai; Chen, Ting-Hua; Cheng, Hsiao-Chun; Wang, Chi-Ching; Li, Lily Yi; Chen, Chinpiao; Chao, Jui-I

2017-08-29

The poor intracellular uptake and non-specific binding of anticancer drugs into cancer cells are the bottlenecks in cancer therapy. Nanocarrier platforms provide the opportunities to improve the drug efficacy. Here we show a carbon-based nanomaterial nanodiamond (ND) that carried paclitaxel (PTX), a microtubule inhibitor, and cetuximab (Cet), a specific monoclonal antibody against epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR), inducing mitotic catastrophe and tumor inhibition in human colorectal cancer (CRC). ND-PTX blocked the mitotic progression, chromosomal separation, and induced apoptosis in the CRC cells; however, NDs did not induce these effects. Conjugation of ND-PTX with Cet (ND-PTX-Cet) was specifically binding to the EGFR-positive CRC cells and enhanced the mitotic catastrophe and apoptosis induction. Besides, ND-PTX-Cet markedly decreased tumor size in the xenograft EGFR-expressed human CRC tumors of nude mice. Moreover, ND-PTX-Cet induced the mitotic marker protein phospho-histone 3 (Ser10) and apoptotic protein active-caspase 3 for mitotic catastrophe and apoptosis. Taken together, this study demonstrated that the co-delivery of PTX and Cet by ND enhanced the effects of mitotic catastrophe and apoptosis in vitro and in vivo, which may be applied in the human CRC therapy.

Historic survey on nuclear merchant ships

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Freire, Luciano Ondir, E-mail: luciano.ondir@gmail.com; Andrade, Delvonei Alves de, E-mail: delvonei@ipen.br

2015-11-15

Highlights: • The nuclear merchants ships already built are described and studied. • Their history and main architectural choices are presented, focusing nuclear domain. • The typical problems in those projects are discussed. • Some key factors for developing successful nuclear merchant ships are identified. - Abstract: This work provides a survey on past nuclear merchant ships experience. On light of new regulations on CO{sub 2}, SO{sub x} and NO{sub x}, the options for clean naval propulsion need to be studied. Despite many efforts, the only already sea proven emissions-free energy is nuclear power of pressurized water reactor type. Given the past experience on the field, this work provides some information on history, architectures and hints of reasons for the success or failures of each project. It is found that adequate requirements identification must be done keeping economics always in the center of design. Experience shows, except after major catastrophic accidents, public trust may be earned by open dialog and sound engineering practices.

Historic survey on nuclear merchant ships

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Freire, Luciano Ondir; Andrade, Delvonei Alves de

2015-01-01

Highlights: • The nuclear merchants ships already built are described and studied. • Their history and main architectural choices are presented, focusing nuclear domain. • The typical problems in those projects are discussed. • Some key factors for developing successful nuclear merchant ships are identified. - Abstract: This work provides a survey on past nuclear merchant ships experience. On light of new regulations on CO 2 , SO x and NO x , the options for clean naval propulsion need to be studied. Despite many efforts, the only already sea proven emissions-free energy is nuclear power of pressurized water reactor type. Given the past experience on the field, this work provides some information on history, architectures and hints of reasons for the success or failures of each project. It is found that adequate requirements identification must be done keeping economics always in the center of design. Experience shows, except after major catastrophic accidents, public trust may be earned by open dialog and sound engineering practices.

A Subpopulation of the K562 Cells Are Killed by Curcumin Treatment after G2/M Arrest and Mitotic Catastrophe.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Macario Martinez-Castillo

Full Text Available Curcumin is extensively investigated as a good chemo-preventive agent in the development of many cancers and particularly in leukemia, including treatment of chronic myelogenous leukemia and it has been proposed as an adjuvant for leukemia therapies. Human chronic myeloid leukemia cells (K562, were treated with 20 μM of curcumin, and we found that a subpopulation of these cells were arrested and accumulate in the G2/M phase of the cell cycle. Characterization of this cell subpopulation showed that the arrested cells presented nuclear morphology changes resembling those described for mitotic catastrophe. Mitotic cells displayed abnormal chromatin organization, collapse of the mitotic spindle and abnormal chromosome segregation. Then, these cells died in an apoptosis dependent manner and showed diminution in the protein levels of BCL-2 and XIAP. Moreover, our results shown that a transient activation of the nuclear factor κB (NFκB occurred early in these cells, but decreased after 6 h of the treatment, explaining in part the diminution of the anti-apoptotic proteins. Additionally, P73 was translocated to the cell nuclei, because the expression of the C/EBPα, a cognate repressor of the P73 gene, was decreased, suggesting that apoptosis is trigger by elevation of P73 protein levels acting in concert with the diminution of the two anti-apoptotic molecules. In summary, curcumin treatment might produce a P73-dependent apoptotic cell death in chronic myelogenous leukemia cells (K562, which was triggered by mitotic catastrophe, due to sustained BAX and survivin expression and impairment of the anti-apoptotic proteins BCL-2 and XIAP.

The necessary and the unacceptable: nuclear power plants, terrorism

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Copel, E.

1991-01-01

In this book, the author gives the reasons for while ecology and economics constrain our communities to call at the nuclear energy for producing electricity. He gave understand the intolerable feature of catastrophic reactor accident such Chernobylsk. With a sum of examples he permits to better understand the real threats and propose measures for reducing the dangers [fr

The shareholder wealth effects of insurance securitization: preliminary evidence from the catastrophe bond market

OpenAIRE

Hagendorff, Bjoern; Hagendorff, Jens; Keasey, Kevin

2013-01-01

Insurance securitization has long been hailed as an important tool to increase theunderwriting capacity for companies exposed to catastrophe-related risks. However, globalvolumes of insurance securitization have remained surprisingly low to date which raisesquestions over its benefits. In this paper, we examine changes in the market value ofinsurance and reinsurance firms which announce their engagement in insurance securitizationby issuing catastrophe (Cat) bonds. Consistent with the hithert...

Evolution of the nuclear law

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Virot, L.

2000-01-01

The jurist has to tackle the nuclear domain with modesty because this domain largely exceeds the boundaries of law. The nuclear energy has been successively the domain of the scientists, through its contribution to the development of the civilization, and then of the army and of the industry for which the nuclear energy is a symbol of power. The jurist has to translate these contradictory feelings and from this point of view, the international texts are significant: the fear of the applications follows the enthusiasm of the intentions. The jurist has a huge field of research at his disposition and assists in a relatively brief delay to the invention of a legal system. Moreover, the jurist has to question himself about his role: is it limited to the elaboration of the reactions imposed by the catastrophe? Will the scientific revolution of the nuclear domain lead to a revolution of the legal approach? And is the jurist capable of giving some answers to expectations and contestation? (J.S.)

Investigation for integration of the German Public Health Service in catastrophe and disaster prevention programs in Germany

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pfenninger, E.; Koenig, S.; Himmelseher, S.

2004-01-01

This research project aimed at investigating the integration of the GPHS into the plans for civil defence and protection as well as catastrophe prevention of the Federal Republic of Germany. Following a comprehensive analysis of the current situation, potential proposals for an improved integrative approach will be presented. In view of the lack of topics relevant for medical care in disaster medicine in educational curricula and training programs for medical students and postgraduate board programs for public health physicians, a working group of the Civil Protection Board of the German Federal Ministry of the Interior already complained in their 'Report on execution of legal rules for protection and rescue of human life as well as restitution of public health after disaster' in 1999, that the integration of the GPHS into catastrophe and disaster prevention programs has insufficiently been solved. On a point-by-point approach, our project analysed the following issues: - Legislative acts for integration of the German Public Health Service into medical care in catastrophes and disasters to protect the civilian population of Germany and their implementation and execution. - Administrative rules and directives on state and district levels that show relationship to integration of the German Public Health Service into preparedness programs for catastrophe prevention and management and their implementation and execution. - Education and postgraduate training options for physicians and non-physician employees of the German Public health Service to prepare for medical care in catastrophes and disasters. - State of knowledge and experience of the German Public Health Service personnel in emergency and disaster medicine. - Evaluation of the German administrative catastrophe prevention authorities with regard to their integration of the German Public Health Service into preparedness programs for catastrophe prevention and management. - Development of a concept to remedy the

Child pain catastrophizing mediates the relation between parent responses to pain and disability in youth with functional abdominal pain.

Science.gov (United States)

Cunningham, Natoshia R; Lynch-Jordan, Anne; Barnett, Kimberly; Peugh, James; Sil, Soumitri; Goldschneider, Kenneth; Kashikar-Zuck, Susmita

2014-12-01

Functional abdominal pain (FAP) in youth is associated with substantial impairment in functioning, and prior research has shown that overprotective parent responses can heighten impairment. Little is known about how a range of parental behaviors (overprotection, minimizing, and/or encouragement) in response to their child's pain interact with child coping characteristics (eg, catastrophizing) to influence functioning in youth with FAP. In this study, it was hypothesized that the relation between parenting factors and child disability would be mediated by children's levels of maladaptive coping (ie, pain catastrophizing). Seventy-five patients with FAP presenting to a pediatric pain clinic and their caregivers participated in the study. Youth completed measures of pain intensity (Numeric Rating Scale), pain catastrophizing (Pain Catastrophizing Scale), and disability (Functional Disability Inventory). Caregivers completed measures of parent pain catastrophizing (Pain Catastrophizing Scale), and parent responses to child pain behaviors (Adult Responses to Child Symptoms: Protection, Minimizing, and Encouragement/Monitoring subscales). Increased functional disability was significantly related to higher child pain intensity, increased child and parent pain catastrophizing, and higher levels of encouragement/monitoring and protection. Parent minimization was not related to disability. Child pain catastrophizing fully mediated the relation between parent encouragement/monitoring and disability and partially mediated the relation between parent protectiveness and disability. The impact of parenting behaviors in response to FAP on child disability is determined, in part, by the child's coping style. Findings highlight a more nuanced understanding of the parent-child interaction in determining pain-related disability levels, which should be taken into consideration in assessing and treating youth with FAP.

A catastrophe in quantum mechanics

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ignatovich, V.K.

2004-01-01

The standard scattering theory (SST) in nonrelativistic quantum mechanics (QM) is analyzed. Self-contradictions of SST are deconstructed. A direct way to calculate scattering probability without introduction of a finite volume is discussed. Substantiation of SST in textbooks with the help of wave packets is shown to be incomplete. A complete theory of wave packet scattering on a fixed center is presented, and its similarity to the plane wave scattering is demonstrated. The neutron scattering on a monatomic gas is investigated, and several problems are pointed out. A catastrophic ambiguity of the cross section is revealed, and a way to resolve this ambiguity is discussed

Pain Catastrophizing in Borderline Morbidly Obese and Morbidly Obese Individuals with Osteoarthritic Knee Pain

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Tamara J Somers

2008-01-01

Full Text Available OBJECTIVE: There is limited information about how morbidly obese osteoarthritis (OA patients cope with the pain they experience. Pain catastrophizing is an important predictor of pain and adjustment in persons with persistent pain. This may be particularly relevant in the morbidly obese (body mass index [BMI] of 40 kg/m2 or greater OA population at risk for increased pain. The present study first examined whether borderline morbidly obese and morbidly obese OA patients report higher levels of pain catastrophizing than a sample of OA patients in the overweight and obese category (BMI between 25 kg/m2 and 34 kg/m2. Next, it examined how pain catastrophizing is related to important indexes of pain and adjustment in borderline morbidly obese and morbidly obese OA patients.

Ethical Issues in Nuclear Waste Management

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Oughton, Deborah [Agricultural Univ. of Norway, Aas (Norway). Dept. of Chemistry and Biotechnology

2001-07-01

Nuclear experts claim that the health risks from radioactive waste disposal are low compared to other environmental hazards, yet the general public is sceptical of the industry's ability to guarantee acceptable safety standards. Many allude to what might be deemed morally relevant factors, such as potential harms to future generations, possibly catastrophic consequences and environmental effects. Industry has often tended to respond with a claim that the public has an irrational perception of radiation risks, particularly those from man-made rather than natural sources. From a philosophical point of view it is interesting to consider exactly how nuclear risks might differ from other hazards, not least to evaluate which ethically relevant factors could be used to defend the stringent demands made by society for nuclear waste disposal.

The Application of Catastrophe Theory to Medical Image Analysis

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Kuijper, Arjan; Florack, L.M.J.

2001-01-01

In order to investigate the deep structure of Gaussian scale space images, one needs to understand the behaviour of critical points under the influence of blurring. We show how the mathematical framework of catastrophe theory can be used to describe the various different types of

Flaws in the Concept of Nuclear Deterrance

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

John Scales Avery

2012-04-01

Full Text Available The concept of nuclear deterrence is seriously flawed, and it violates the fundamental ethical principles of all major religions. Besides being morally unacceptable, nuclear weapons are also illegal according to a historic 1996 decision of the International Court of Justice, a ruling that reflects the opinion of the vast majority of the worldʼs peoples. Even a small nuclear war would be an ecological catastrophe, not only killing civilian populations indiscriminately in both belligerent and neutral countries, but also severely damaging global agriculture and making large areas of the earth permanently uninhabitable through radioactive contamination. The danger of accidental nuclear war continues to be very great today, and the danger of nuclear terrorism is increasing. In this perilous situation, it is necessary for the nuclear nations to acknowledge that the concept of deterrence has been a mistake, which is threatening the lives of all human beings as well as threatening devastation of the biosphere. Acknowledging that the policy of nuclear deterrence has been a grave error can reduce risk of nuclear weapons proliferation.

Catastrophe Optics Method to Determine the Micro-Nano Size Profiles at TPL of Liquid Films on a Solid Surface

Science.gov (United States)

Chao, David F.; McQuillen, J. B.; Sankovic, J. M.; Zhang, Nengli

2009-01-01

As discovered by recent studies, what directly affects the wetting and spreading is curvature in micro-region rather than the macroscopic contact angle. Measuring the profile of the micro-region becomes an important research topic. Recently, catastrophe optics has been applied to this kind of measurements. Optical catastrophe occurring in far field of waves of liquid-refracted laser beam implies a wealth of information about the liquid spreading not only for liquid drops but also for films. When a parallel laser beam passes through a liquid film on a slide glass at three-phase-line (TPL), very interesting optical image patterns occur on a screen far from the film. An analysis based on catastrophe optics discloses and interprets the formation of these optical image patterns. The analysis reveals that the caustic line manifested as the bright-thick line on the screen implies the lowest hierarchy of optical catastrophes, called fold caustic. This optical catastrophe is produced by the inflexion line on liquid surface at the liquid foot, which is formed not only in the spreading of drops but also in spreading of films. The generalized catastrophe optics method enables to identify the edge profiles and determine the edge foot height of liquid films. Keywords: Crossover region, Inflexion line, liquid edge foot, Catastrophe optics, Caustic and diffraction

Micro-structured nuclear fuel and novel nuclear reactor concepts for advanced power production

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Popa-Simil, Liviu

2008-01-01

Many applications (e.g. terrestrial and space electric power production, naval, underwater and railroad propulsion and auxiliary power for isolated regions) require a compact-high-power electricity source. The development of such a reactor structure necessitates a deeper understanding of fission energy transport and materials behavior in radiation dominated structures. One solution to reduce the greenhouse-gas emissions and delay the catastrophic events' occurrences may be the development of massive nuclear power. The actual basic conceptions in nuclear reactors are at the base of the bottleneck in enhancements. The current nuclear reactors look like high security prisons applied to fission products. The micro-bead heterogeneous fuel mesh gives the fission products the possibility to acquire stable conditions outside the hot zones without spilling, in exchange for advantages - possibility of enhancing the nuclear technology for power production. There is a possibility to accommodate the materials and structures with the phenomenon of interest, the high temperature fission products free fuel with near perfect burning. This feature is important to the future of nuclear power development in order to avoid the nuclear fuel peak, and high price increase due to the immobilization of the fuel in the waste fuel nuclear reactor pools. (author)

Imaging findings in the rare catastrophic variant of the primary antiphospholipid syndrome

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Thuerl, Christina; Altehoefer, Carsten; Laubenberger, Joerg [Freiburg Univ. (Germany). Abt. Radiologie; Spyridonidis, Alexandros [Freiburg Univ. (DE). Abt. Innere Medizin 1 (Haematologie und Onkologie)

2002-03-01

We report imaging findings in a case of the rare catastrophic variant of antiphospholipid syndrome (CAPS) characterized by widespread microvascular occlusions, which may lead to multiple organ failure. We present a case of a 66-year-old woman with bone marrow necrosis, acute acalculous cholecystitis (AAC), focal liver necrosis, subtle patchy splenic infarctions, and bilateral adrenal infarction. The demonstration of multiple microvascular organ involvement (three or more) is crucial for the diagnosis of the catastrophic variant of APS. This can be performed radiologically intra-vitam. Imaging can even reveal subclinical microinfarctions, which are often only diagnosed at autopsy. (orig.)

Imaging findings in the rare catastrophic variant of the primary antiphospholipid syndrome

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Thuerl, Christina; Altehoefer, Carsten; Laubenberger, Joerg

2002-01-01

We report imaging findings in a case of the rare catastrophic variant of antiphospholipid syndrome (CAPS) characterized by widespread microvascular occlusions, which may lead to multiple organ failure. We present a case of a 66-year-old woman with bone marrow necrosis, acute acalculous cholecystitis (AAC), focal liver necrosis, subtle patchy splenic infarctions, and bilateral adrenal infarction. The demonstration of multiple microvascular organ involvement (three or more) is crucial for the diagnosis of the catastrophic variant of APS. This can be performed radiologically intra-vitam. Imaging can even reveal subclinical microinfarctions, which are often only diagnosed at autopsy. (orig.)

Self-Efficacy for Pain Communication Moderates the Relation Between Ambivalence Over Emotional Expression and Pain Catastrophizing Among Patients With Osteoarthritis.

Science.gov (United States)

Van Denburg, Alyssa N; Shelby, Rebecca A; Caldwell, David S; O'Sullivan, Madeline L; Keefe, Francis J

2018-04-06

Pain catastrophizing (ie, the tendency to focus on and magnify pain sensations and feel helpless in the face of pain) is one of the most important and consistent psychological predictors of the pain experience. The present study examined, in 60 patients with osteoarthritis pain who were married or partnered: 1) the degree to which ambivalence over emotional expression and negative network orientation were associated with pain catastrophizing, and 2) whether self-efficacy for pain communication moderated these relations. Hierarchical multiple linear regression analyses revealed a significant main effect for the association between ambivalence over emotional expression and pain catastrophizing; as ambivalence over emotional expression increased, the degree of pain catastrophizing increased. In addition, the interaction between ambivalence over emotional expression and self-efficacy for pain communication was significant, such that as self-efficacy for pain communication increased, the association between ambivalence over emotional expression and pain catastrophizing became weaker. Negative network orientation was not significantly associated with pain catastrophizing. Findings suggest that higher levels of self-efficacy for pain communication may help weaken the effects of ambivalence over emotional expression on pain catastrophizing. In light of these results, patients may benefit from interventions that target pain communication processes and emotion regulation. This article examines interpersonal processes involved in pain catastrophizing. This study has the potential to lead to better understanding of maladaptive pain coping strategies and possibly better prevention and treatment strategies. Copyright © 2018 The American Pain Society. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The application of catastrophe theory to medical image analysis

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Kuijper, A.; Florack, L.M.J.

2001-01-01

In order to investigate the deep structure of Gaussian scale space images, one needs to understand the behaviour of critical points under the influence of blurring. We show how the mathematical framework of catastrophe theory can be used to describe the various different types of annihilations and

Acceptance of governmental communication in catastrophes and media coverage

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ruhrmann, G.; Kohring, M.

1997-01-01

Technology policy - like every political field - has to deal with conflicts, in which different partial interests are negotiated. Technological catastrophes are based on past decisions in technology policy. From there specific problems of acceptance in catastrophes can only be understood according to this social and temporal context. Acceptance deficits of the government result from the insufficient consideration of the interests non-governmental actors express(ed) with regard to technological risk decisions. Therefore governmental risk and crisis communication should communicate the rationales underlying technology decisions, at the same time giving other actors the possibility of further negotiation. The media coverage plays an important role in this communication process. Following their own specific rules the media create a public sphere, in order to give different groups and institutions an orientation for their social acting. Governmental communication should not consider journalism as a transmission belt for its information policy - rather, in order to be effective, it should respect the specific journalistic conduct. (orig.) [de

Child pain catastrophizing mediates the relationship between parent responses to pain and disability in youth with functional abdominal pain

Science.gov (United States)

Cunningham, Natoshia Raishevich; Lynch-Jordan, Anne; Barnett, Kimberly; Peugh, James; Sil, Soumitri; Goldschneider, Kenneth; Kashikar-Zuck, Susmita

2014-01-01

Objectives Functional abdominal pain (FAP) in youth is associated with substantial impairment in functioning and prior research has shown that overprotective parent responses can heighten impairment. Little is known about how a range of parental behaviors in response to their child’s pain (overprotection, minimizing and/or encouragement) interact with child coping characteristics (e.g., catastrophizing) to influence functioning in youth with FAP. In this study, it was hypothesized that the relationship between parenting factors and child disability would be mediated by children’s level of maladaptive coping (i.e., pain catastrophizing). Methods Seventy-five patients with FAP presenting to a pediatric pain clinic and their caregivers participated. Youth completed measures of pain intensity (Numeric Rating Scale), pain catastrophizing (Pain Catastrophizing Scale), and disability (Functional Disability Inventory). Caregivers completed measures of parent pain catastrophizing (Pain Catastrophizing Scale), and parent responses to child pain behaviors (Adult Responses to Child Symptoms: protection, minimizing, and encouragement/monitoring subscales). Results Increased functional disability was significantly related to higher child pain intensity, increased child and parent pain catastrophizing, and higher levels of encouragement/monitoring and protection. Parent minimization was not related to disability. Child pain catastrophizing fully mediated the relationship between parent encouragement/monitoring and disability and partially mediated the relationship between parent protectiveness and disability. Conclusions The impact of parenting behaviors in response to FAP on child disability is determined in part by the child’s coping style. Findings highlight a more nuanced understanding of the parent-child interaction in determining pain-related disability levels, which should be taken into consideration in assessing and treating youth with FAP. PMID:25121521

Agreement between the Government of the French Republic and the Swiss Federal Council on Mutual Assistance in case of a catastrophe or a serious accident

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1989-01-01

This agreement, signed on 14 January 1987, was formally approved in France by Act No. 88-1255 of 30 December 1988 (published in the Journal Officiel de la Republique Francaise of 4 January 1989). The agreement was published by Decree No. 89-207 of 7 April 1989. It lays down a comprehensive legal framework for mutual emergency assistance. It provides, in particular, that rescue teams will be sent by the Parties in all cases of catastrophe and serious accidents, including nuclear incidents. (NEA) [fr

La catastrophe nucléaire de Tchernobyl entre erreurs humaines et défauts techniques

CERN Document Server

Perrineau, Aude

2015-01-01

Découvrez enfin tout ce qu'il faut savoir sur la catastrophe nucléaire de Tchernobyl en moins d'une heure ! Le 26 avril 1986 à 1 h 23, une catastrophe d'un nouveau genre ébranle le monde : un réacteur de la centrale nucléaire de Tchernobyl explose. Alors que les autorités soviétiques camouflent l'accident, puis en minimisent l'importance, un nuage radioactif se forme et se propage sur toute l'Europe…Ce livre vous permettra d'en savoir plus sur : Le contexte de l'époque Les acteurs majeurs qui ont participé à l'événement La catastrophe nucléaire de Tchernobyl Les répercussions du drameLe mot

Reflections on the development of international nuclear law

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lamm, Vanda

2017-01-01

Over the course of more than seven decades, treaty norms on the production and utilisation of nuclear energy have been developed, which together form a special section within international law. These norms are the consequence of the unique nature of the field, namely that on the one hand some aspects of the uses of nuclear energy should be covered by totally new and special norms (e.g. in the field of disarmament, seeking to eliminate or at least to control the spread of nuclear weapons, and nuclear weapons tests) and on the other hand that several traditional legal solutions were not suitable for the problems that emerged in connection with other uses of nuclear energy (like liability). In this article, three aspects of the development of that special section of international law will be explored, namely: the close connections between the regulation of peaceful and military uses of nuclear energy; the effects of nuclear catastrophes on the development of international nuclear legislation; and the interaction between soft law norms and binding norms in the area of nuclear law

Chernobyl catastrophe and establishment of civil society in Ukraine

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Scherbak, Yuri

2013-01-01

Ambassador Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary of Ukraine described secret exhibition for Chernobyl accident and a civil movement called the Green World movement. Chernobyl accident had also a great impact on the government and society in such totalitarian state as the Soviet Union was in 1986. Soviet authorities took unprecedented measures to block any information about the nature of explosion levels and number of victims. In 1987, a group of writers and scientists from the Academy of Science of Ukraine established 'Green World'. Green World received serious support from the quasi-nongovernmental organization. The main principles of the Green World were the following: (1) the primacy of environment over economy and politics; (2) democracy and full transparency in environmental issues; (3) all-people's participation in solving environmental issues; (4) combination of scientific and humanistic principles; (5) environmentalization of education and awareness-raising. The author was elected a member of the Soviet Union Parliament, and head of the Subcommittee for Nuclear Energy and Environment of the Parliamentary Committee for Environmental Issues. The 1990 Chernobyl Declaration stated the following; 'It was established that the full burden of the responsibility for the catastrophe should be placed on the state, its authorities and leadership, guilty of criminal actions, along with the political leadership of republics, who created a command-administrative bureaucratic system with its totalitarian regime.' (N.T.)

Safety design of Qinshan Nuclear Power Plant

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ouyang Yu; Zhang Lian; Du Shenghua; Zhao Jiayu

1984-01-01

Safety issues have been greatly emphasized through the design of the Qinshan Nuclear Power Plant. Reasonable safety margine has been taken into account in the plant design parameters, the design incorporated various safeguard systems, such as engineering safety feature systems, safety protection systems and the features to resist natural catastrophes, e. g. earthquake, hurricanes, tide and so on. Preliminary safety analysis and environmental effect assessment have been done and anti-accident provisions and emergency policy were carefully considered. Qinshan Nuclear Power Plant safety related systems are designed in accordance with the common international standards established in the late 70's, as well as the existing engineering standard of China

Emergency planning and preparedness for nuclear facilities

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Koelzer, W.

1988-01-01

Nuclear installations are designed, constructed and operated in such a way that the probability for an incident or accident is very low and the probability for a severe accident with catastrophic consequences is extremely small. These accidents represent the residual risk of the nuclear installation, and this residual risk can be decreased on one hand by a better design, construction and operation and on the other hand by planning and taking emergency measures inside the facility and in the environment of the facility. By way of introduction and definition it may be indicated to define some terms pertaining to the subject in order to make for more uniform understanding. (orig./DG)

Radioactivity and Nuclear Issues in Science Fiction

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Franic, Z.

2008-01-01

In this work are presented and reviewed science fiction narratives, films and comics that exploit radioactivity and nuclear issues. These topics to some science fiction authors serve as metaphor of evil and holocaust as well as nice instrument for elaborating various manipulations and conspiracy theories. In that context are of special interest science fiction works depicting apocalyptic post-nuclear worlds and societies, such works being closely connected with cyberpunk genre. However, other more technologically optimistic authors nuclear energy and research regarding nuclear technology and radioactivity consider as eligible and inevitable solution for world peace and prosperity Nowadays, public interest and global fears are shifted from radioactivity and nuclear issues to other catastrophic scenarios threatening future of the mankind, these for example being climate changes and global warming, asteroid impact, collapse of information infrastructure, nanotechnology, robotics and artificial intelligence etc. Consequently, these issues are as well increasingly reflected in contemporary science fiction stories.(author)

Expectancies Mediate the Relations Among Pain Catastrophizing, Fear of Movement, and Return to Work Outcomes After Whiplash Injury.

Science.gov (United States)

Carriere, Junie S; Thibault, Pascal; Milioto, Maria; Sullivan, Michael J L

2015-12-01

Pain catastrophizing and fear of movement have been identified as key predictors of prolonged work disability after whiplash injury. However, little is known about the processes by which pain catastrophizing and fear of movement affect return to work. This study investigated the mediating role of expectancies on the relations between pain catastrophizing and return to work, and between fear of movement and return to work after whiplash injury. The study sample consisted of 154 individuals with whiplash injury who were enrolled in a multidisciplinary pain rehabilitation program. Participants completed measures of pain catastrophizing, fear of movement, and return-to-work expectancies after admission to a rehabilitation program. A follow-up telephone interview was used to assess work status 1 year after discharge. Consistent with previous research, analyses revealed that expectancies, pain catastrophizing, and fear of movement were significant predictors of return to work at 1-year follow-up. Regression analyses (bootstrapping) revealed that expectancies partially mediated the relation between catastrophizing and return to work. Expectancies completely mediated the relation between fear of movement and return to work. The significant predictive and mediating role of expectancies on return to work argues for the inclusion of expectancies as a specific target of intervention for individuals with whiplash injury. The findings suggest that expectancies might be part of the pathways by which pain catastrophizing and fear of movement affect return-to-work outcomes after whiplash injury. The findings argue for greater attention to return-to-work expectancies as a risk factor for problematic recovery outcomes as well as a target of intervention. Copyright © 2015 American Pain Society. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Catastrophic antiphospholipid Syndrome

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Medina Velasquez, Yimy; Felix Restrepo Suarez, Jose; Iglesias Gamarra, Antonio

2001-01-01

The antiphospholipid syndrome (APS) is characterized by venous, arterial thrombosis and miscarriages along with lupic anticoagulant and antibodies against anticardiolipin. The catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome (CAPS) has been described since 1992 like a multiple organic dysfunction caused by multiple vascular thrombosis in three or more organs. The patients who suffer from this syndrome may have or not history of APS. There are two or three mechanisms that may cause the CAPS, alone or in combination: These are: 1. The multisystemic thrombotic disease with emphasis in microvasculature occlusion of the organs and occlusion of big arterial or veins 2. The disseminated intravascular coagulation (DIC) superimpose in 15% to 50% of the patients that, of course, conducted to an occlusive disease of arterioles, veins or capillaries. 3. A systemic inflammatory response syndrome (SIRS) induced by citoquines. In this review it is described clinical and laboratory features, pathogenesis and treatment of CAPS. For this purpose, it was searched for Medline from 1993 to 2000 and revised the most significant issues obtained by this medium

Catastrophic Failure and Fault-Tolerant Design of IGBT Power Electronic Converters - An Overview

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Wu, Rui; Blaabjerg, Frede; Wang, Huai

2013-01-01

Reliability is one of the key issues for the application of Insulated Gate Bipolar Transistors (IGBTs) in power electronic converters. Many efforts have been devoted to the reduction of IGBT wear out failure induced by accumulated degradation and catastrophic failure triggered by single-event ove......Reliability is one of the key issues for the application of Insulated Gate Bipolar Transistors (IGBTs) in power electronic converters. Many efforts have been devoted to the reduction of IGBT wear out failure induced by accumulated degradation and catastrophic failure triggered by single...

Severe abdominal pain as a presenting symptom of probable catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome.

Science.gov (United States)

Haskin, Orly; Amir, Jacob; Schwarz, Michael; Schonfeld, Tommy; Nahum, Elhanan; Ling, Galina; Prais, Dario; Harel, Liora

2012-07-01

Catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome (APS) in pediatric medicine is rare. We report 3 adolescents who presented with acute onset of severe abdominal pain as the first manifestation of probable catastrophic APS. The 3 patients, 2 male patients and 1 female patient were 14 to 18 years old. One had been diagnosed with systemic lupus erythematosus in the past, but the other 2 had no previous relevant medical history. All presented with excruciating abdominal pain without additional symptoms. Physical examination was noncontributory. Laboratory results were remarkable for high inflammatory markers. Abdominal ultrasonography was normal, and abdominal computed tomography scan showed nonspecific findings of liver infiltration. Only computed tomography angiography revealed evidence of extensive multiorgan thrombosis. All patients had elevated titers of antiphospholipid antibodies. The patients were treated with full heparinization, high-dose steroids, and intravenous immunoglobulin with a resolution of symptoms. One patient was resistant to the treatment and was treated with rituximab. In conclusion, severe acute abdominal pain can be the first manifestation of a thromboembolic event owing to catastrophic APS even in previously healthy adolescents. Diagnosis requires a high index of suspicion with prompt evaluation and treatment to prevent severe morbidity and mortality.

GDP-to-GTP exchange on the microtubule end can contribute to the frequency of catastrophe.

Science.gov (United States)

Piedra, Felipe-Andrés; Kim, Tae; Garza, Emily S; Geyer, Elisabeth A; Burns, Alexander; Ye, Xuecheng; Rice, Luke M

2016-11-07

Microtubules are dynamic polymers of αβ-tubulin that have essential roles in chromosome segregation and organization of the cytoplasm. Catastrophe-the switch from growing to shrinking-occurs when a microtubule loses its stabilizing GTP cap. Recent evidence indicates that the nucleotide on the microtubule end controls how tightly an incoming subunit will be bound (trans-acting GTP), but most current models do not incorporate this information. We implemented trans-acting GTP into a computational model for microtubule dynamics. In simulations, growing microtubules often exposed terminal GDP-bound subunits without undergoing catastrophe. Transient GDP exposure on the growing plus end slowed elongation by reducing the number of favorable binding sites on the microtubule end. Slower elongation led to erosion of the GTP cap and an increase in the frequency of catastrophe. Allowing GDP-to-GTP exchange on terminal subunits in simulations mitigated these effects. Using mutant αβ-tubulin or modified GTP, we showed experimentally that a more readily exchangeable nucleotide led to less frequent catastrophe. Current models for microtubule dynamics do not account for GDP-to-GTP exchange on the growing microtubule end, so our findings provide a new way of thinking about the molecular events that initiate catastrophe. © 2016 Piedra et al. This article is distributed by The American Society for Cell Biology under license from the author(s). Two months after publication it is available to the public under an Attribution–Noncommercial–Share Alike 3.0 Unported Creative Commons License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/3.0).

Overview of catastrophic failures of freewheeling diodes in power electronic circuits

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Wu, Rui; Blaabjerg, Frede; Wang, Huai

2013-01-01

Emerging applications (e.g. electric vehicles, renewable energy systems, more electric aircrafts, etc.) have brought more stringent reliability constrains into power electronic products because of safety requirements and maintenance cost issues. To improve the reliability of power electronics......, better understanding of failure modes and failure mechanisms of reliability–critical components in power electronic circuits are needed. Many efforts have been devoted to the reduction of IGBT failures, while the study on the failures of freewheeling diodes is less impressive. It is of importance...... to investigate the catastrophic failures of freewheeling diodes as they could induce the malfunction of other components and eventually the whole power electronic circuits. This paper presents an overview of those catastrophic failures and gives examples of the corresponding consequences to the circuits....

Modeling the Effect of Privatization on Behavior of Hurst Exponent Using Stochastic Catastrophe Theory

Science.gov (United States)

Bolgorian, Meysam; Raei, Reza

In this paper using the global Hurst exponent, the impact of privatization of public companies in Iran on the degree of efficiency in Tehran Stock Exchange is assessed. The results show that selling public companies' share in Tehran Stock Exchange (TSE) leads to a structural break in degree of market development. To model this phenomenon a catastrophe approach is used and it is demonstrated that this structural break can be better explained by a cusp catastrophe model.

Nonlinear analysis of the cooperation of strategic alliances through stochastic catastrophe theory

Science.gov (United States)

Xu, Yan; Hu, Bin; Wu, Jiang; Zhang, Jianhua

2014-04-01

The excitation intervention of strategic alliance may change with the changes in the parameters of circumstance (e.g., external alliance tasks). As a result, the stable cooperation between members may suffer a complete unplanned betrayal at last. However, current perspectives on strategic alliances cannot adequately explain this transition mechanism. This study is a first attempt to analyze this nonlinear phenomenon through stochastic catastrophe theory (SCT). A stochastic dynamics model is constructed based on the cooperation of strategic alliance from the perspective of evolutionary game theory. SCT explains the discontinuous changes caused by the changes in environmental parameters. Theoretically, we identify conditions where catastrophe can occur in the cooperation of alliance members.

Polar catastrophe at the MgO(100)/SnO2(110) interface

KAUST Repository

Albar, Arwa

2016-11-14

First principles calculations, based on density functional theory, are used to investigate the structural and electronic properties of the epitaxial MgO(100)/SnO2(110) interface of wide band gap insulators. Depending on the interface termination, nonmagnetic metallic and half-metallic interface states are observed. The formation of these states is explained by a polar catastrophe model for nonpolar-polar interfaces. Strong lattice distortions and buckling develop in SnO2, which influence the interface properties as the charge discontinuity is partially screened. Already a single unit cell of SnO2 is sufficient to drive the polar catastrophe scenario. © 2016 The Royal Society of Chemistry.

Application of catastrophe theory to a point model for bumpy torus with neoclassical non-resonant electrons

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Punjabi, A; Vahala, G [College of William and Mary, Williamsburg, VA (USA). Dept. of Physics

1983-12-01

The point model for the toroidal core plasma in the ELMO Bumpy Torus (with neoclassical non-resonant electrons) is examined in the light of catastrophe theory. Even though the point model equations do not constitute a gradient dynamic system, the equilibrium surfaces are similar to those of the canonical cusp catastrophe. The point model is then extended to incorporate ion cyclotron resonance heating. A detailed parametric study of the equilibria is presented. Further, the nonlinear time evolution of these equilibria is studied, and it is observed that the point model obeys the delay convention (and hence hysteresis) and shows catastrophes at the fold edges of the equilibrium surfaces. Tentative applications are made to experimental results.

Nuclear acceptance and the regulatory environment: hard lessons from American experience

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rowden, M.A.

1982-01-01

This paper discusses the efforts of those involved in the American nuclear power programme to earn public acceptance from the outset. It points out that the excessively stringent protection measures and the preoccupation with a catastrophic accident have probably contributed to making the public wary of nuclear power. In the light of experience following the Three Mile Island accident there will probably be a more realistic approach in future and acceptable and comparative risks, coupled with cost benefit will be considered, rather than unattainable goals. (U.K.)

Astrophysics: Is a doomsday catastrophe likely?

Science.gov (United States)

Tegmark, Max; Bostrom, Nick

2005-12-01

The risk of a doomsday scenario in which high-energy physics experiments trigger the destruction of the Earth has been estimated to be minuscule. But this may give a false sense of security: the fact that the Earth has survived for so long does not necessarily mean that such disasters are unlikely, because observers are, by definition, in places that have avoided destruction. Here we derive a new upper bound of one per billion years (99.9% confidence level) for the exogenous terminal-catastrophe rate that is free of such selection bias, using calculations based on the relatively late formation time of Earth.

Astrophysics: is a doomsday catastrophe likely?

Science.gov (United States)

Tegmark, Max; Bostrom, Nick

2005-12-08

The risk of a doomsday scenario in which high-energy physics experiments trigger the destruction of the Earth has been estimated to be minuscule. But this may give a false sense of security: the fact that the Earth has survived for so long does not necessarily mean that such disasters are unlikely, because observers are, by definition, in places that have avoided destruction. Here we derive a new upper bound of one per billion years (99.9% confidence level) for the exogenous terminal-catastrophe rate that is free of such selection bias, using calculations based on the relatively late formation time of Earth.

Let's talk nuclear energy in 30 questions; Parlons nucleaire en 30 questions

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Reuss, Paul

2012-01-11

The Fukushima catastrophe of March 11, 2011 has called into question the share of nuclear energy in France and in foreign countries. Its replacement by renewable energy sources and the safety of nuclear power plants are in the center of today's debates. But what is the reality behind the mass of contradictory information that exists on this complex topic? This book moves the question out of the media noise and supplies objective and factual information with reliable figures about the nuclear industry by answering 30 key-questions. (J.S.)

Timber Price Dynamics Following a Natural Catastrophe

OpenAIRE

Jeffrey P. Prestemon; Thomas P. Holmes

2000-01-01

Catastrophic shocks to existing stocks of a renewable resource can cause long-run price shifts. With timber, these long-run price shifts may be accompanied by a short-run price drop due to salvage. Hurricane Hugo damaged 20% of southern pine timber in the South Carolina Coastal Plain in 1989. To estimate the short- and long-run effects of the hurricane on the prices of timber stocks, we estimated an intervention model of the residuals of cointegration of South Carolina sawtimber and pulpwood ...

Getting out of nuclear energy, yes it is possible

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kerckhove, Stephen; Rabilloud, Xavier

2011-01-01

Twenty five years after the Chernobyl power plant accident, the Fukushima catastrophe has dealt a severe blow to the argument of a safe and clean nuclear energy. The reality, with its human and economical cost, contradicts the reassuring messages from the atom defenders. The question tackled in this book is no longer 'should we get out of nuclear energy' but 'what are the solutions to get out of it'. Far away from the ecological 'dogmatism', this collective book provides the reader with several clear and practical answers based on three pillars: energy conservation, energy efficiency and development of renewable energy sources

Pain catastrophizing as a risk factor for chronic pain after total knee arthroplasty: a systematic review

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Burns LC

2015-01-01

Full Text Available Lindsay C Burns,1–3 Sarah E Ritvo,1 Meaghan K Ferguson,1 Hance Clarke,3–5 Ze’ev Seltzer,3,5 Joel Katz1,3–5 1Department of Psychology, York University, Toronto, ON, Canada; 2Arthritis Research Centre of Canada, Vancouver, BC, Canada; 3Department of Anesthesia and Pain Management, Toronto General Hospital, Toronto, ON, Canada; 4Department of Anesthesia, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada; 5Centre for the Study of Pain, Faculties of Dentistry and Medicine, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada Background: Total knee arthroplasty (TKA is a common and costly surgical procedure. Despite high success rates, many TKA patients develop chronic pain in the months and years following surgery, constituting a public health burden. Pain catastrophizing is a construct that reflects anxious preoccupation with pain, inability to inhibit pain-related fears, amplification of the significance of pain vis-à-vis health implications, and a sense of helplessness regarding pain. Recent research suggests that it may be an important risk factor for untoward TKA outcomes. To clarify this impact, we systematically reviewed the literature to date on pain catastrophizing as a prospective predictor of chronic pain following TKA. Methods: We searched MEDLINE, EMBASE, and PsycINFO databases to identify articles related to pain catastrophizing, TKA, risk models, and chronic pain. We reviewed titles and abstracts to identify original research articles that met our specified inclusion criteria. Included articles were then rated for methodological quality. including methodological quality. Due to heterogeneity in follow-up, analyses, and outcomes reported across studies, a quantitative meta-analysis could not be performed. Results: We identified six prospective longitudinal studies with small-to-mid-sized samples that met the inclusion criteria. Despite considerable variability in reported pain outcomes, pain catastrophizing was identified as a significant

Catastrophic Disruption Threshold and Maximum Deflection from Kinetic Impact

Science.gov (United States)

Cheng, A. F.

2017-12-01

The use of a kinetic impactor to deflect an asteroid on a collision course with Earth was described in the NASA Near-Earth Object Survey and Deflection Analysis of Alternatives (2007) as the most mature approach for asteroid deflection and mitigation. The NASA DART mission will demonstrate asteroid deflection by kinetic impact at the Potentially Hazardous Asteroid 65803 Didymos in October, 2022. The kinetic impactor approach is considered to be applicable with warning times of 10 years or more and with hazardous asteroid diameters of 400 m or less. In principle, a larger kinetic impactor bringing greater kinetic energy could cause a larger deflection, but input of excessive kinetic energy will cause catastrophic disruption of the target, leaving possibly large fragments still on collision course with Earth. Thus the catastrophic disruption threshold limits the maximum deflection from a kinetic impactor. An often-cited rule of thumb states that the maximum deflection is 0.1 times the escape velocity before the target will be disrupted. It turns out this rule of thumb does not work well. A comparison to numerical simulation results shows that a similar rule applies in the gravity limit, for large targets more than 300 m, where the maximum deflection is roughly the escape velocity at momentum enhancement factor β=2. In the gravity limit, the rule of thumb corresponds to pure momentum coupling (μ=1/3), but simulations find a slightly different scaling μ=0.43. In the smaller target size range that kinetic impactors would apply to, the catastrophic disruption limit is strength-controlled. A DART-like impactor won't disrupt any target asteroid down to significantly smaller size than the 50 m below which a hazardous object would not penetrate the atmosphere in any case unless it is unusually strong.

Insurance and catastrophic events: can we expect de facto limits on liability recoveries

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Solomon, K.A.; Whipple, C.; Okrent, D.

1978-01-01

The purpose of this study is to take an overview of large technological systems in society to ascertain the prevalence, if any, of situations that can lead to catastrophic effects where the resultant liabilities far exceed the insurances or assets subject to suit in court, thereby imposing de facto limits on liability recoveries. In part, interest in this topic is spurred by the continuing discussion and controversy over the Price-Anderson Act which requires operators of nuclear plants to waive certain defenses and which limits the combined liability of the operator and the government to an amount less than the maximum potential public cost of a major nuclear reactor accident. A variety of technological events could result in assignable liabilities up to $25 billion, or more, depending on the value of life. These postulated events include: (1) the crash of a large aircraft into a crowded sports facility (an estimated $20.3 billion liability); (2) an explosion and subsequent dispersion of a chemical (such as chlorine or LNG) into a population center from a large manufacturing, storage, or transport facility (estimated $25.5 billion liability); (3) a massive nuclear power plant accident and the subsequent dispersal of large quantities of radioactive material to a large downwind population center ($25 billion liability); (4) the collision of two ships, such as a large LNG tanker and a large passenger liner, resulting in the deaths of all passengers on board ($5.5 billion liability); and (5) collapse of a large building in an earthquake, known by the owners to be seismically deficient and no steps having been taken to warn occupants or to remedy the situation (major deficiencies). All these events are found to involve potential liability far exceeding the available resources, whether they be insurance, corporation assets, or government revenues

Repeated catastrophic valley infill following medieval earthquakes in the Nepal Himalaya

Science.gov (United States)

Schwanghart, Wolfgang; Bernhardt, Anne; Stolle, Amelie; Hoelzmann, Philipp; Adhikari, Basanta R.; Andermann, Christoff; Tofelde, Stefanie; Merchel, Silke; Rugel, Georg; Fort, Monique; Korup, Oliver

2016-01-01

Geomorphic footprints of past large Himalayan earthquakes are elusive, although they are urgently needed for gauging and predicting recovery times of seismically perturbed mountain landscapes. We present evidence of catastrophic valley infill following at least three medieval earthquakes in the Nepal Himalaya. Radiocarbon dates from peat beds, plant macrofossils, and humic silts in fine-grained tributary sediments near Pokhara, Nepal’s second-largest city, match the timing of nearby M > 8 earthquakes in ~1100, 1255, and 1344 C.E. The upstream dip of tributary valley fills and x-ray fluorescence spectrometry of their provenance rule out local sources. Instead, geomorphic and sedimentary evidence is consistent with catastrophic fluvial aggradation and debris flows that had plugged several tributaries with tens of meters of calcareous sediment from a Higher Himalayan source >60 kilometers away.

Disentangling phase transitions and critical points in the proton–neutron interacting boson model by catastrophe theory

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

J.E. García-Ramos

2014-09-01

Full Text Available We introduce the basic concepts of catastrophe theory needed to derive analytically the phase diagram of the proton–neutron interacting boson model (IBM-2. Previous studies [1–3] were based on numerical solutions. We here explain the whole IBM-2 phase diagram including the precise order of the phase transitions in terms of the cusp catastrophe.

Nuclear policies in Central Europe. Environmental policy and enlargement of the European Union: Austria's policies towards Nuclear Reactors in neighboring countries

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Getzner, M.

2003-01-01

Austria's anti-nuclear policies are rooted in the successful anti-nuclear referendum on the Zwentendorf nuclear power plant (Lower Austria) in 1978 and the great impact of the Chernobyl catastrophe on Austria in 1986. Since about 1990, official Austria has pursued anti-nuclear policies not only at home but also abroad. In particular, reactors in Central and Eastern European Countries (CEEC) are the focal points of Austria's foreign anti-nuclear policies. Strategies include increasing nuclear safety, promoting energy efficiency and sustainable energy sources (such as renewable resources), and extending international legal frameworks to account for nuclear safety. Involvement in domestic energy issues in other countries is not an easy task, and while Austrian policy makers have had some success in increasing awareness of nuclear safety in Europe, they have also made a number of strategic mistakes. Notwithstanding real and substantiated concerns regarding nuclear safety, Austrian policies have lost credibility during recent years. This book explores the history and the development of Austrian anti-nuclear policies, and discusses the political economy of such policies. Particular emphasis is laid on the 2002 referendum against the Temelin reactor in the neighboring Czech Republic. (orig.)

End of the nuclear energy era? From Fukushima to the energy policy turnaround; Ende des Atomzeitalters? Von Fukushima in die Energiewende

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Piepenbrink, Johannes (comp.)

2012-07-01

Due to a violent earthquake and the resulting tsunami, a core melt down resulted at the nuclear power plant Fukushima Daiichi in Japan. Thus, at 30th June, 2011, the Federal Government decided to complete the utilization of the nuclear power in Germany. Is this the end of the atomic age? Under this aspect, the booklet under consideration consists of the following nine contributions: (1) Why is the ''energy policy turnaround'' a social question? (Harald Welzer); (2) Tsunami in the living room: Catastrophes facilitated by the media (Joerg R. Bergmann); (3) Learning from the catastrophe (Manfred Buerger); (4) Perspectives of the nuclear power in Europe and globally (Lutz Mez); (5) Outsider or leader? The 'model Germany' and the European energy policy (Severin Fischer); (6) 'Energy policy turnaround': Quo vadis? (Hardo Bruhns); (7) Energy policy turnarounds in Germany: Motifs and impacts for the European electricity market (Hans-Jochen Luhmann); (8) A short story of the German anti-nuclear movement (Joachim Radkau); (9) Popularity of the apocalypse: Reflections on the cultural history of the fear against nuclear accidents since 1945 (Philipp Gassert).

The role of nuclear energy in times of energy transition

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2012-01-01

Since the reactor catastrophe in Fukushima, the risk of nuclear power has once again become more evident to the public and has also led to a rethinking of politics in Europe. Slogans like ''Nuclear Power, No Thanks!'', ''Get Out of Euratom'' are making more and more the rounds. The phase-out of nuclear energy is the topic that is increasingly provoking people to think. But how should one handle this? What role will nuclear energy play in a distant future? Central factors such as the economic viability of renewable energy sources and the environmental and social compatibility of production and distribution must be taken into account, while at the same time the reduction of pollutants and greenhouse gases must continue. If this is done without nuclear energy, is the rapid abandonment of nuclear energy even necessary or does nuclear energy generation have to be used as a temporary solution? (roessner)

Gravothermal catastrophe and negative specific heat of self-gravitating systems

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hachisu, I; Sugimoto, D [Tokyo Univ. (Japan). Coll. of General Education

1978-07-01

Thermodynamics of self-gravitating gas system, which is enclosed by an adiabatic spherical wall, is discussed. When the temperature distribution is isothermal, the system is in thermodynamic equilibrium in the sense that the first order variation of the total entropy of the system vanishes. However, the second order variation of the total entropy may be positive, when the effect of gravity exceeds a certain limit. Then, the system may evolve to make its entropy increase. This is the gravothermal catastrophe, which was pointed out first by Antonov in 1962, but for which some questions were raised concerning its reality. In the present paper, this catastrophe is analysed by extending functional space of variation to include non-isothermal perturbations. It results in two merits: It is most convenient to make a close relation with usual concepts in the thermodynamics of irreversible process, and the present formulation does not contain any singular quantities which brought a confusion in the interpretation of the real physical processes.

Gravothermal catastrophe and negative specific heat of self-gravitating systems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hachisu, Izumi; Sugimoto, Daiichiro

1978-01-01

Thermodynamics of self-gravitating gas system, which is enclosed by an adiabatic spherical wall, is discussed. When the temperature distribution is isothermal, the system is in thermodynamic equilibrium in the sense that the first order variation of the total entropy of the system vanishes. However, the second order variation of the total entropy may be positive, when the effect of gravity exceeds a certain limit. Then, the system may evolve to make its entropy increase. This is the gravothermal catastrophe, which was pointed out first by Antonov in 1962, but for which some questions were raised concerning its reality. In the present paper, this catastrophe is analysed by extending functional space of variation to include non-isothermal perturbations. It results in two merits: It is most convenient to make a close relation with usual concepts in the thermodynamics of irreversible process, and the present formulation does not contain any singular quantities which brought a confusion in the interpretation of the real physical processes. (author)

Child's and parents' catastrophizing about pain is associated with procedural fear in children: a study in children with diabetes and their mothers.

Science.gov (United States)

Vervoort, T; Goubert, L; Vandenbossche, H; Van Aken, S; Matthys, D; Crombez, G

2011-12-01

The contribution of the child's and parents' catastrophizing about pain was explored in explaining procedural pain and fear in children. Procedural fear and pain were investigated in 44 children with Type I diabetes undergoing a finger prick. The relationships between parents' catastrophizing and parents' own fear and estimates of their child's pain were also investigated. The children and their mothers completed questionnaires prior to a routine consultation with the diabetes physician. Children completed a situation-specific measure of the Pain Catastrophizing Scale for Children (PCS-C) and provided ratings of their experienced pain and fear on a 0-10 numerical rating scale (NRS). Parents completed a situation-specific measure of the Pain Catastrophizing Scale For Parents (PCS-P) d provided estimates of their child's pain and their own experienced fear on a 0-10 NRS. Analyses indicated that higher catastrophizing by children was associated with more fear and pain during the finger prick. Scores for parents' catastrophzing about their children's pain were positively related to parents' scores for their own fear, estimates of their children's pain, and child-reported fear, but not the amount of pain reported by the child. The findings attest to the importance of assessing for and targeting child and parents' catastrophizing about pain. Addressing catastrophizing and related fears and concerns of both parents and children may be necessary to assure appropriate self-management. Further investigation of the mechanisms relating catastrophizing to deleterious outcomes is warranted.

Inside money, procyclical leverage, and banking catastrophes.

Science.gov (United States)

Brummitt, Charles D; Sethi, Rajiv; Watts, Duncan J

2014-01-01

We explore a model of the interaction between banks and outside investors in which the ability of banks to issue inside money (short-term liabilities believed to be convertible into currency at par) can generate a collapse in asset prices and widespread bank insolvency. The banks and investors share a common belief about the future value of certain long-term assets, but they have different objective functions; changes to this common belief result in portfolio adjustments and trade. Positive belief shocks induce banks to buy risky assets from investors, and the banks finance those purchases by issuing new short-term liabilities. Negative belief shocks induce banks to sell assets in order to reduce their chance of insolvency to a tolerably low level, and they supply more assets at lower prices, which can result in multiple market-clearing prices. A sufficiently severe negative shock causes the set of equilibrium prices to contract (in a manner given by a cusp catastrophe), causing prices to plummet discontinuously and banks to become insolvent. Successive positive and negative shocks of equal magnitude do not cancel; rather, a banking catastrophe can occur even if beliefs simply return to their initial state. Capital requirements can prevent crises by curtailing the expansion of balance sheets when beliefs become more optimistic, but they can also force larger price declines. Emergency asset price supports can be understood as attempts by a central bank to coordinate expectations on an equilibrium with solvency.

Inside money, procyclical leverage, and banking catastrophes.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Charles D Brummitt

Full Text Available We explore a model of the interaction between banks and outside investors in which the ability of banks to issue inside money (short-term liabilities believed to be convertible into currency at par can generate a collapse in asset prices and widespread bank insolvency. The banks and investors share a common belief about the future value of certain long-term assets, but they have different objective functions; changes to this common belief result in portfolio adjustments and trade. Positive belief shocks induce banks to buy risky assets from investors, and the banks finance those purchases by issuing new short-term liabilities. Negative belief shocks induce banks to sell assets in order to reduce their chance of insolvency to a tolerably low level, and they supply more assets at lower prices, which can result in multiple market-clearing prices. A sufficiently severe negative shock causes the set of equilibrium prices to contract (in a manner given by a cusp catastrophe, causing prices to plummet discontinuously and banks to become insolvent. Successive positive and negative shocks of equal magnitude do not cancel; rather, a banking catastrophe can occur even if beliefs simply return to their initial state. Capital requirements can prevent crises by curtailing the expansion of balance sheets when beliefs become more optimistic, but they can also force larger price declines. Emergency asset price supports can be understood as attempts by a central bank to coordinate expectations on an equilibrium with solvency.

Multidimensional poverty and catastrophic health spending in the mountainous regions of Myanmar, Nepal and India.

Science.gov (United States)

Mohanty, Sanjay K; Agrawal, Nand Kishor; Mahapatra, Bidhubhusan; Choudhury, Dhrupad; Tuladhar, Sabarnee; Holmgren, E Valdemar

2017-01-18

Economic burden to households due to out-of-pocket expenditure (OOPE) is large in many Asian countries. Though studies suggest increasing household poverty due to high OOPE in developing countries, studies on association of multidimensional poverty and household health spending is limited. This paper tests the hypothesis that the multidimensionally poor are more likely to incur catastrophic health spending cutting across countries. Data from the Poverty and Vulnerability Assessment (PVA) Survey carried out by the International Center for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD) has been used in the analyses. The PVA survey was a comprehensive household survey that covered the mountainous regions of India, Nepal and Myanmar. A total of 2647 households from India, 2310 households in Nepal and 4290 households in Myanmar covered under the PVA survey. Poverty is measured in a multidimensional framework by including the dimensions of education, income and energy, water and sanitation using the Alkire and Foster method. Health shock is measured using the frequency of illness, family sickness and death of any family member in a reference period of one year. Catastrophic health expenditure is defined as 40% above the household's capacity to pay. Results suggest that about three-fifths of the population in Myanmar, two-fifths of the population in Nepal and one-third of the population in India are multidimensionally poor. About 47% of the multidimensionally poor in India had incurred catastrophic health spending compared to 35% of the multidimensionally non-poor and the pattern was similar in both Nepal and Myanmar. The odds of incurring catastrophic health spending was 56% more among the multidimensionally poor than among the multidimensionally non-poor [95% CI: 1.35-1.76]. While health shocks to households are consistently significant predictors of catastrophic health spending cutting across country of residence, the educational attainment of the head of the household is

Climate Catastrophe - The Giant Swindle

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Doerell, P. E.

1998-01-01

Energy is the life-blood of civilization. More than 80% of global energy is supplied by fossil fuels. And this will continue for the foreseeable future - if an implementation of the Kyoto Protocol does not lead to a dramatic decrease of these fuels causing worldwide turmoil of unprecedented dimensions. However, the scaremongering with a 'climate catastrophe' allegedly caused by 'greenhouse gas' emissions from the burning of fossil fuels is a huge hoax. Its only 'scientific' base is the IPCC management's enigmatic assessment: 'The balance of evidence suggests a discernable human influence on climate'. But even IPCC had to admit at the World Energy Conference in Tokyo in 1996: 'We have no evidence'. And all the scaremongering assertions of the protagonists of 'global warming' have been convincingly refuted by the world elite of scientists. This paper will: - show how the whole anti-CO 2 campaign has been manipulated from the very beginning till today; - give great many scientific and logical reason why the arguments of the scaremongers are incorrect; - outline the catastrophic economic and social consequences of the proposed anti-CO 2 measures - without any benefit for the environment of climate; - name the driving forces behind this campaign and their interests. The witchhunt against CO 2 is an incredible scientific and political scandal, CO 2 does not damage the environment at all, and labelling it a 'climate killer' is absurd. On the contrary, this gas is vital for the life on our plant, and a stronger concentration of CO 2 will be beneficial by doubling plant growth and with this combatting global famine. And to pretend that we could influence - with a CO 2 tax - the climate, is insane arrogance. Man is absolutely helpless when confronted with the forces of nature. The squandering of multimillions USD of taxpayer's money for the travelling circus of 'Climate summits' and the stultification of the population must stop. The 'global warming' lie is the biggest

Nuclear power and the environment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mackerron, Gordon; Berkhout, Frans

1990-01-01

The environmental effects of nuclear power discussed in this paper are specifically the effects of radiation on human populations, either directly or through the food chain. Controlling the environmental effects of nuclear power has two dimensions, waste management and safety. Regulatory controls aim to keep the risk of death due to man-made radiation down to what is thought to be an acceptable level; the background to the establishing of such levels is examined. The scale of the nuclear industry is outlined. In industrial countries with nuclear power, with the possible exception of the USA and USSR which have extensive nuclear weapons programmes, most radioactive wastes arise in the civil nuclear fuel cycle; medical, research and industrial users of nuclear materials produce the rest. The extreme variety of materials included in radioactive wastes is highlighted. Approaches to the management of different kinds of radioactive waste are discussed; the particular problems associated with reactor decommissioning are considered. The enormous potential harm of serious accidents at nuclear power plants through a release of large quantities of radionuclides into the environment has been a dominant influence in the design of reactors. The accidents at Three Mile Island and Chernobyl underline the need for careful examination of management issues as well as design and operational failures. Finally, the catastrophic effects of a full scale nuclear war are briefly considered within the context of nuclear proliferation and international security. (UK)

Assessing catastrophic and impoverishing effects of health care payments in Uganda.

Science.gov (United States)

Kwesiga, Brendan; Zikusooka, Charlotte M; Ataguba, John E

2015-01-22

Direct out-of-pocket payments for health care are recognised as limiting access to health care services and also endangering the welfare of households. In Uganda, such payments comprise a large portion of total health financing. This study assesses the catastrophic and impoverishing impact of paying for health care out-of-pocket in Uganda. Using data from the Uganda National Household Surveys 2009/10, the catastrophic impact of out-of-pocket health care payments is defined using thresholds that vary with household income. The impoverishing effect of out-of-pocket health care payments is assessed using the Ugandan national poverty line and the World Bank poverty line ($1.25/day). A high level and intensity of both financial catastrophe and impoverishment due to out-of-pocket payments are recorded. Using an initial threshold of 10% of household income, about 23% of Ugandan households face financial ruin. Based on both the $1.25/day and the Ugandan poverty lines, about 4% of the population are further impoverished by such payments. This represents a relative increase in poverty head count of 17.1% and 18.1% respectively. The absence of financial protection in Uganda's health system calls for concerted action. Currently, out-of-pocket payments account for a large share of total health financing and there is no pooled prepayment system available. There is therefore a need to move towards mandatory prepayment. In this way, people could access the needed health services without any associated financial consequence.

Systematic care management: a comprehensive approach to catastrophic injury management applied to a catastrophic burn injury population--clinical, utilization, economic, and outcome data in support of the model.

Science.gov (United States)

Kucan, John; Bryant, Ernest; Dimick, Alan; Sundance, Paula; Cope, Nathan; Richards, Reginald; Anderson, Chris

2010-01-01

The new standard for successful burn care encompasses both patient survival and the burn patient's long-term quality of life. To provide optimal long-term recovery from catastrophic injuries, including catastrophic burns, an outcome-based model using a new technology called systematic care management (SCM) has been developed. SCM provides a highly organized system of management throughout the spectrum of care that provides access to outcome data, consistent oversight, broader access to expert providers, appropriate allocation of resources, and greater understanding of total costs. Data from a population of 209 workers' compensation catastrophic burn cases with a mean TBSA of 27.9% who were managed under the SCM model of care were analyzed. The data include treatment type, cost, return to work, and outcomes achieved. Mean duration of management to achieve all guaranteed outcomes was 20 months. Of the 209 injured workers, 152 (72.7%) achieved sufficient recovery to be released to return to work, of which 97 (46.8%) were both released and competitively employed. Assessment of 10 domains of functional independence indicated that 47.2% of injured workers required total assistance at initiation of SCM. However, at termination of SCM, 84% of those injured workers were fully independent in the 10 functional activities. When compared with other burn research outcome data, the results support the value of the SCM model of care.

Repeated catastrophic valley infill following medieval earthquakes in the Nepal Himalaya.

Science.gov (United States)

Schwanghart, Wolfgang; Bernhardt, Anne; Stolle, Amelie; Hoelzmann, Philipp; Adhikari, Basanta R; Andermann, Christoff; Tofelde, Stefanie; Merchel, Silke; Rugel, Georg; Fort, Monique; Korup, Oliver

2016-01-08

Geomorphic footprints of past large Himalayan earthquakes are elusive, although they are urgently needed for gauging and predicting recovery times of seismically perturbed mountain landscapes. We present evidence of catastrophic valley infill following at least three medieval earthquakes in the Nepal Himalaya. Radiocarbon dates from peat beds, plant macrofossils, and humic silts in fine-grained tributary sediments near Pokhara, Nepal's second-largest city, match the timing of nearby M > 8 earthquakes in ~1100, 1255, and 1344 C.E. The upstream dip of tributary valley fills and x-ray fluorescence spectrometry of their provenance rule out local sources. Instead, geomorphic and sedimentary evidence is consistent with catastrophic fluvial aggradation and debris flows that had plugged several tributaries with tens of meters of calcareous sediment from a Higher Himalayan source >60 kilometers away. Copyright © 2016, American Association for the Advancement of Science.

Catastrophic Disruption of Comet ISON

Science.gov (United States)

Keane, Jacqueline V.; Milam, Stefanie N.; Coulson, Iain M.; Kleyna, Jan T.; Sekanina, Zdenek; Kracht, Rainer; Riesen, Timm-Emmanuel; Meech, Karen J.; Charnley, Steven B.

2016-01-01

We report submillimeter 450 and 850 microns dust continuum observations for comet C/2012 S1 (ISON) obtained at heliocentric distances 0.31-0.08 au prior to perihelion on 2013 November 28 (rh?=?0.0125 au). These observations reveal a rapidly varying dust environment in which the dust emission was initially point-like. As ISON approached perihelion, the continuum emission became an elongated dust column spread out over as much as 60? (greater than 10(exp 5) km in the anti-solar direction. Deconvolution of the November 28.04 850 microns image reveals numerous distinct clumps consistent with the catastrophic disruption of comet ISON, producing approximately 5.2?×?10(exp 10) kg of submillimeter-sized dust. Orbital computations suggest that the SCUBA-2 emission peak coincides with the comet's residual nucleus.

Repenser le risque et les catastrophes dans les régions de montagne

OpenAIRE

Hewitt, Kenneth; Mehta, Manjari

2012-01-01

Cet article aborde la question des risques et des catastrophes en montagne. Il vise non pas à dissocier mais plutôt à replacer ces concepts au cœur des questions de sécurité publique et de développement des États contemporains. Cette approche des catastrophes se distingue des précédentes, pourtant considérablement renforcées par les stéréotypes habituels, propres à l’environnement montagnard. De fait, celles-ci étaient jusqu’alors centrées sur l’aléa naturel, sur son caractère extrême et impr...

Pain acceptance potentially mediates the relationship between pain catastrophizing and post-surgery outcomes among compensated lumbar fusion patients

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Dance C

2016-12-01

Full Text Available Cassie Dance,1 M. Scott DeBerard,1 Jessica Gundy Cuneo2 1Department of Psychology, Utah State University, Logan, UT, 2Department of Psychiatry, University of California, San Diego, CA, USA Purpose: Chronic low back pain is highly prevalent and often treatment recalcitrant condition, particularly among workers’ compensation patients. There is a need to identify psychological factors that may predispose such patients to pain chronicity. The primary aim of this study was to examine whether pain acceptance potentially mediated the relationship between pain catastrophizing and post-surgical outcomes in a sample of compensated lumbar fusion patients.Patients and methods: Patients insured with the Workers Compensation Fund of Utah and who were at least 2 years post-lumbar fusion surgery completed an outcome survey. These data were obtained from a prior retrospective-cohort study that administered measures of pain catastrophizing, pain acceptance, mental and physical health, and disability.Results: Of the 101 patients who completed the outcome survey, 75.2% were male with a mean age of 42.42 years and predominantly identified as White (97.0%. The majority of the participants had a posterior lumbar interbody fusion surgery. Pain acceptance, including activity engagement and pain willingness, was significantly correlated with better physical health and mental health, and lower disability rates. Pain catastrophizing was inversely correlated with measures of pain acceptance (activity engagement r=–0.67, p<0.01, pain willingness r=–0.73, p<0.01 as well as the outcome measures: mental health, physical health, and disability. Pain acceptance significantly mediated the relationship between pain catastrophizing and both mental and physical health and also the relationship between pain catastrophizing and disability. Conclusion: This study demonstrated that the relationship between pain catastrophizing and negative patient outcomes was potentially mediated

Can world answer the new nuclear necessity?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Finon, D.

2003-09-01

Thanks to climatic change policies and to the prospective studies about the depletion of oil and gas reserves, a new chance will be given to nuclear energy. However, even if the nuclear industry has become more transparent, more attentive to the public preoccupations, and permanently looking for a demonstration of its safety, the institutional bases of its re-start up (the participating decision processes and the competing framework of electric markets) are much less favourable than those of its initial technological development. The future of nuclear energy is not warranted except if a strong consensus happens in dominating countries about the real or assumed catastrophic consequences of the greenhouse effect and if this sudden awareness changes the public opinion about the specific risks of nuclear energy and radioactive wastes. The uncertainty which will remain during, at least, the next 15 years will greatly complicate the choices of the nuclear industry and of the governments. For this reason, a paradoxical effort has to be made for the promotion of energy efficiency and renewable energy sources. (J.S.)

Crisis management aspects of bam catastrophic earthquake: review article.

Science.gov (United States)

Sadeghi-Bazargani, Homayoun; Azami-Aghdash, Saber; Kazemi, Abdolhassan; Ziapour, Behrad

2015-01-01

Bam earthquake was the most catastrophic natural disasters in recent years. The aim of this study was to review different aspects of crisis management during and after the catastrophic earthquake in Bam City, Iran. Data needed for this systematic review were collected through searching PubMed, EMBASE and SID databases, for the period from 2003 to 2011. Keywords included earthquake, Iran and Bam earthquake. The data were summarized and were analyzed using Content Analysis. Out of 422 articles, 25 articles were included in the study. Crisis Management aspects and existing pitfalls were classified into seven categories including planning and organization, human resource management, management of logistics, international humanitarian aids, field performance of the military and security forces, health and medical service provision, and information management. Positive aspects and major pitfalls of crisis management have been introduced in all the mentioned categories. The available evidence indicated poor crisis management during Bam earthquake that resulted in aggravating the losses as well as diminishing the effect of interventions. Thus, concerning the importance of different aspects of the crisis management and the high prevalence of disasters in Iran, the observed vulnerability in disaster management process should be addressed.

Plasma Exchange in the Management of Catastrophic Antiphospholipid Syndrome

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Dimitri Titeca-Beauport

2016-01-01

Full Text Available Objective. Report of a case of catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome (CAPS with multiple organ involvement leading to a life-threatening condition despite early combination corticosteroid and heparin therapy. Initiation of plasma exchange led to rapid improvement of the patient’s general condition. Design. Case report. Setting. University teaching hospital medical intensive care unit. Patient. Single case: 52-year-old man hospitalized for catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome (CAPS with cardiac, renal, and cutaneous involvement. Despite early methylprednisolone and heparin therapy, the patient’s condition progressively deteriorated, resulting in acute renal failure, right adrenal hemorrhage, and pulmonary involvement, leading to acute respiratory distress on day 6, requiring high-flow nasal cannula oxygen therapy with FiO2 of 1.0. Interventions. Plasma exchange was started on day 6. Endpoints and Main Results. A marked improvement of the patient’s general condition was observed after initiation of plasma exchange, with successful weaning of oxygen therapy and normalization of platelet count, troponin, and serum creatinine within four days. Conclusions. This case illustrates the efficacy of plasma exchange in CAPS and the difficulty for physicians to determine the optimal timing of plasma exchange.

A catastrophe model for the prospect-utility theory question.

Science.gov (United States)

Oliva, Terence A; McDade, Sean R

2008-07-01

Anomalies have played a big part in the analysis of decision making under risk. Both expected utility and prospect theories were born out of anomalies exhibited by actual decision making behavior. Since the same individual can use both expected utility and prospect approaches at different times, it seems there should be a means of uniting the two. This paper turns to nonlinear dynamical systems (NDS), specifically a catastrophe model, to help suggest an 'out of the box' line of solution toward integration. We use a cusp model to create a value surface whose control dimensions are involvement and gains versus losses. By including 'involvement' as a variable the importance of the individual's psychological state is included, and it provides a rationale for how decision makers' changes from expected utility to prospect might occur. Additionally, it provides a possible explanation for what appears to be even more irrational decisions that individuals make when highly emotionally involved. We estimate the catastrophe model using a sample of 997 gamblers who attended a casino and compare it to the linear model using regression. Hence, we have actual data from individuals making real bets, under real conditions.

Valuation of Indonesian catastrophic earthquake bonds with generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution and Cox-Ingersoll-Ross (CIR) interest rate model

Science.gov (United States)

Gunardi, Setiawan, Ezra Putranda

2015-12-01

Indonesia is a country with high risk of earthquake, because of its position in the border of earth's tectonic plate. An earthquake could raise very high amount of damage, loss, and other economic impacts. So, Indonesia needs a mechanism for transferring the risk of earthquake from the government or the (reinsurance) company, as it could collect enough money for implementing the rehabilitation and reconstruction program. One of the mechanisms is by issuing catastrophe bond, `act-of-God bond', or simply CAT bond. A catastrophe bond issued by a special-purpose-vehicle (SPV) company, and then sold to the investor. The revenue from this transaction is joined with the money (premium) from the sponsor company and then invested in other product. If a catastrophe happened before the time-of-maturity, cash flow from the SPV to the investor will discounted or stopped, and the cash flow is paid to the sponsor company to compensate their loss because of this catastrophe event. When we consider the earthquake only, the amount of discounted cash flow could determine based on the earthquake's magnitude. A case study with Indonesian earthquake magnitude data show that the probability of maximum magnitude can model by generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution. In pricing this catastrophe bond, we assumed stochastic interest rate that following the Cox-Ingersoll-Ross (CIR) interest rate model. We develop formulas for pricing three types of catastrophe bond, namely zero coupon bonds, `coupon only at risk' bond, and `principal and coupon at risk' bond. Relationship between price of the catastrophe bond and CIR model's parameter, GEV's parameter, percentage of coupon, and discounted cash flow rule then explained via Monte Carlo simulation.

Characterization of a metallic mechanical standard junction for a specific nuclear application

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Villanueva, Jose; Miller, Marcelo E.; Vazquez, Luis; Halpert, Silvia

2007-01-01

A testing procedure, targeted to promote that an industrial standard component can be used in a nuclear particular application, is designed and applied. Namely, a mechanical standard junction component, that is widely recognized for its industrial reliability, is commonly used to fit two stainless steel tubes, is intended to be used in a particular nuclear application fitting a stainless steel tube to a Zircaloy-4 tube counterpart. The junction will be subjected to pressure and temperature typical of primary circuit coolant in a nuclear power plant. The results found once the test was applied (catastrophic fault and significant water leakage absence) allow to advice using this mechanical junction device as a valid nuclear design option fitting the proposed tubes. (author) [es

Well below 2 °C: Mitigation strategies for avoiding dangerous to catastrophic climate changes

Science.gov (United States)

Xu, Yangyang; Ramanathan, Veerabhadran

2017-09-01

The historic Paris Agreement calls for limiting global temperature rise to “well below 2 °C.” Because of uncertainties in emission scenarios, climate, and carbon cycle feedback, we interpret the Paris Agreement in terms of three climate risk categories and bring in considerations of low-probability (5%) high-impact (LPHI) warming in addition to the central (˜50% probability) value. The current risk category of dangerous warming is extended to more categories, which are defined by us here as follows: >1.5 °C as dangerous; >3 °C as catastrophic; and >5 °C as unknown, implying beyond catastrophic, including existential threats. With unchecked emissions, the central warming can reach the dangerous level within three decades, with the LPHI warming becoming catastrophic by 2050. We outline a three-lever strategy to limit the central warming below the dangerous level and the LPHI below the catastrophic level, both in the near term (pollutant (SP) lever to mitigate short-lived climate pollutants, and the carbon extraction and sequestration (CES) lever to thin the atmospheric CO2 blanket. Pulling on both CN and SP levers and bending the emissions curve by 2020 can keep the central warming below dangerous levels. To limit the LPHI warming below dangerous levels, the CES lever must be pulled as well to extract as much as 1 trillion tons of CO2 before 2100 to both limit the preindustrial to 2100 cumulative net CO2 emissions to 2.2 trillion tons and bend the warming curve to a cooling trend.

Overfishing reduces resilience of kelp beds to climate-driven catastrophic phase shift.

Science.gov (United States)

Ling, S D; Johnson, C R; Frusher, S D; Ridgway, K R

2009-12-29

A key consideration in assessing impacts of climate change is the possibility of synergistic effects with other human-induced stressors. In the ocean realm, climate change and overfishing pose two of the greatest challenges to the structure and functioning of marine ecosystems. In eastern Tasmania, temperate coastal waters are warming at approximately four times the global ocean warming average, representing the fastest rate of warming in the Southern Hemisphere. This has driven range extension of the ecologically important long-spined sea urchin (Centrostephanus rodgersii), which has now commenced catastrophic overgrazing of productive Tasmanian kelp beds leading to loss of biodiversity and important rocky reef ecosystem services. Coincident with the overgrazing is heavy fishing of reef-based predators including the spiny lobster Jasus edwardsii. By conducting experiments inside and outside Marine Protected Areas we show that fishing, by removing large predatory lobsters, has reduced the resilience of kelp beds against the climate-driven threat of the sea urchin and thus increased risk of catastrophic shift to widespread sea urchin barrens. This shows that interactions between multiple human-induced stressors can exacerbate nonlinear responses of ecosystems to climate change and limit the adaptive capacity of these systems. Management actions focused on reducing the risk of catastrophic phase shift in ecosystems are particularly urgent in the face of ongoing warming and unprecedented levels of predator removal from the world's oceans.

Risk indices of an ecological catastrophe because of a severe accident, its insurance, and their measurement units

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pampuro, V.I.

2001-01-01

The critical analysis of the existing measurement units of the risk of an ecological catastrophe because of severe accidents is performed. The mistake of using the measurement unit 'reactor/year' for estimation of ecological catastrophe's consequences is shown. The complex for risk assessment by costs to ensure the ecological safety is introduced. The index of virtual accident insurance is suggested

Nuclear waste and public acceptance. A study about the situation in the Netherlands

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Damveld, H.

1999-01-01

The author bases the paper and study on the concept of the risk society coined by the sociologist Ulrich Beck. Very briefly, risk society means that in modern societies the basic conflicts have shifted from the distribution of prosperity to distribution of risks. The author points out five important factors affecting the willingness to accept a risk, which all have negative indication for the case of nuclear energy. 1. Catastrophe effect: The willingness to accept a more probable risk with less serious consequences is greater than the willingness to accept an extremely unlikely risk with serious consequences. Nuclear energy is considered to be a risk with catastrophe effect. 2. Justice factor: This factor too plays a central role in the negative assessment of nuclear energy. It is considered to be unjust to impose risks on future generations. 3. Voluntariness: The acceptance of a risk increases with the voluntariness. But nuclear energy is not considered to be a voluntary risk. 4. Confidence: The extent of confidence is an important factor determing how information on a possible risk will be assessed. In the Netherlands 68 percent of the population does not trust that the government will provide immediate and honest information on nuclear accidents. 5. Avoidability: An inevitable risk is more likely to be accepted than an avoidable risk. If already produced waste is involved and if there is even a chance that the nuclear power station concerned will be shut-down, the population is more likely to accept the final repository than if it were a case of searching for a final repository for waste not yet produced. (orig.) [de

Predicting Catastrophic Phase Inversion on the Basis of Droplet Coalescence Kinetics

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Vaessen, G.E.J.; Visschers, M.; Stein, H.N.

1996-01-01

A predictive model for catastrophic phase inversion, based on the kinetics of droplet breakup and coalescence, is presented here. Two inversion mechanisms can be distinguished, depending on the direction of the phase inversion process. With the surfactant predominantly present in the dispersed

Nuclear energy: state of the art, necessity and acceptance, possible developments

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kroeger, W.

1992-09-01

Nuclear energy is a relatively young, in many countries well-established technology. The operational records of commercial plants vary between satisfactory and excellent. Numerous incidents and a few accidents have been reported, which, however, have not demonstrably led to lethal cases prior to the Chernobyl accident. The environmental impact is small: Radiation for non-professionally exposed persons well below the natural background, no greenhouse-gases. The quantities of (highly) radioactive waste accumulated to date are small, but have to be safely stored for incredibly long times; the origin of the problems is rather of intellectual than of insoluble technical nature. The safety standard of western plants is high, but is based on fast acting safety measures and systems, which make nuclear plants complex and less 'forgiving' against failures. On the other hand, eastern European nuclear plants show considerable safety deficits, which need to be overcome. The lack of acceptance for nuclear energy is partially caused by the risk profile of the plants operated today: This profile results into an extremely low frequency of occurence of catastrophic events, without, however, excluding them. The current risk profile can be influenced by technical means. Corresponding technical developments are graduated in time and cover the whole domain between backfitting of existing plants over evolutionary designs up to radical changes for far-future concepts; for the latter the goal of a more far-reaching elimination of severe accidents and/or catastrophic radioactive releases is aimed at, by means of an increased use of passive systems and inherent safety features. (author) 10 figs., 4 tabs., 30 refs

Ensemble learning in fixed expansion layer networks for mitigating catastrophic forgetting.

Science.gov (United States)

Coop, Robert; Mishtal, Aaron; Arel, Itamar

2013-10-01

Catastrophic forgetting is a well-studied attribute of most parameterized supervised learning systems. A variation of this phenomenon, in the context of feedforward neural networks, arises when nonstationary inputs lead to loss of previously learned mappings. The majority of the schemes proposed in the literature for mitigating catastrophic forgetting were not data driven and did not scale well. We introduce the fixed expansion layer (FEL) feedforward neural network, which embeds a sparsely encoding hidden layer to help mitigate forgetting of prior learned representations. In addition, we investigate a novel framework for training ensembles of FEL networks, based on exploiting an information-theoretic measure of diversity between FEL learners, to further control undesired plasticity. The proposed methodology is demonstrated on a basic classification task, clearly emphasizing its advantages over existing techniques. The architecture proposed can be enhanced to address a range of computational intelligence tasks, such as regression problems and system control.

1.5 °C ? - Solutions for avoiding catastrophic climate change in this century

Science.gov (United States)

Xu, Y.

2017-12-01

The historic Paris Agreement calls for limiting global temperature rise to "well below 2 °C." Because of uncertainties in emission scenarios, climate, and carbon cycle feedback, we interpret the Paris Agreement in terms of three climate risk categories and bring in considerations of low-probability (5%) high impact (LPHI) warming in addition to the central (˜50% probability) value. The current risk category of dangerous warming is extended to more categories, which are defined by us here as follows: >1.5 °C as dangerous; >3 °C as catastrophic; and >5 °C as unknown, implying beyond catastrophic, including existential threats. With unchecked emissions, the central warming can reach the dangerous level within three decades, with the LPHI warming becoming catastrophic by 2050. We outline a three-lever strategy to limit the central warming below the dangerous level and the LPHI below the catastrophic level, both in the near term (pollutant (SP) lever to mitigate short-lived climate pollutants, and the carbon extraction and sequestration (CES) lever to thin the atmospheric CO2 blanket. Pulling on both CN and SP levers and bending the emissions curve by 2020 can keep the central warming below dangerous levels. To limit the LPHI warming below dangerous levels, the CES lever must be pulled as well to extract as much as 1 trillion tons of CO2 before 2100 to both limit the preindustrial to 2100 cumulative net CO2 emissions to 2.2 trillion tons and bend the warming curve to a cooling trend. In addition to present the analysis above, I will also share (1) perspective on developed and developing world actions and interactions on climate solutions; (2) Prof V. Ramanathan's interactions with the Pontifical Academy of Sciences and other religious groups which are highly valuable to the interdisciplinary audience.

Statistical and machine learning approaches for the minimization of trigger errors in parametric earthquake catastrophe bonds

OpenAIRE

Calvet, Laura

2017-01-01

Catastrophe bonds are financial instruments designed to transfer risk of monetary losses arising from earthquakes, hurricanes, or floods to the capital markets. The insurance and reinsurance industry, governments, and private entities employ them frequently to obtain coverage. Parametric catastrophe bonds base their payments on physical features. For instance, given parameters such as magnitude of the earthquake and the location of its epicentre, the bond may pay a fixed amount or not pay at ...

Why Fukushima after Hiroshima? - An ethic to phase out nuclear energy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Serekian, Jean-Marc

2012-01-01

The Fukushima catastrophe has turned a page of history. According to the author, the nuclear age has entered a death agony era. We discover today the improvisations, the corruption and the arbitrary nature of the nuclear adventure. Several problems remain unanswered and are left unsolved to the next generations: wastes and their processing, shutdown and de-construction of power plants. The future of an industry cannot build up forever with an unlimited growth and draw from the public debt at the same time. The Fukushima event closes an historical cycle and, by its human and environmental consequences, reveals again the original and unique military purpose of the nuclear industry. The ten thoughts approached in this book analyse again the historical roots of the 'atomic age' and clarify the ethical urgency of a nuclear phasing out

Radiation protection training award - an innovative approach of testing radiation protection skills in catastrophe management

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Geringer, T.

2003-01-01

own emergency planning. ARCS Bronze award consists of 4 practical exercises followed by a theoretical test. The praxis requirements include the detection and identification of a radioactive source, application of a low level gamma monitor, principles of personnel monitoring, control of external hazard as well as taking environmental samples. Theoretical testing ranges from the nature of radioactivity and radiation units to the legislation related to radiological protection. Evaluation is given in an objective numeric grading. The Silver award includes the treatment of nuclear emergencies such as the detonation of a nuclear weapon, an accident in a radionuclid/ isotop lab or an accident in a nuclear plant. The candidates have also to present their skills in handling an transportation accident, arranging immediate catastrophe management. The candidates' background ranged from security force members to academics. The problem of harmonized training standards is, especially since the September 11 th attacks, a worldwide need. Security forces have to show their practical knowledge and secure their theoretical background to eventually update their skills. The protection of the general population can only be ensured by a homogenous training as well as perfect collaboration of the security units. Therefore an intensive training of the security guards performed by specialists must be guaranteed. ARCS radiation protection awards can be seen as the motivational background to this approach. Also the social component must not be neglected since the period of training at ARCS offers a perfect environment for interdisciplinary discussion. Safety culture and training experiences in the field of radiation protection in Austria depend an such an information system and ARCS has shown experience in that field for decades. Innovative approaches in training and sharing information as well as experience are seen as important tools to maintain safety culture. Harmonization and national

Will Trump harness the power of the US presidency to re-energise nuclear?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Shepherd, John

2016-01-01

Four days after the March 2011 accident at Japan's Fukushima-Daiichi nuclear power plant, before the world knew the enormity of what had happened, a US property tycoon said in an interview on national television: ''I am strongly in favour of nuclear energy.'' In the aftermath of that catastrophe, as nuclear experts, regulators and governments were rushing to understand what had happened, the businessman did not waiver in his opinion. His words did not grab international headlines in the dark days after Fukushima. However, as of 8 November 2016, the world is now compelled to hang on the tycoon's every word - because he is now the US president-elect, Donald Trump.

Tatra's forests will recover from catastrophe for decades

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Haluza, I.

2004-01-01

Windy tornado in Tatra's national park (TANAP, High Tatras, Slovakia) at the end of 2004 caused extensive ecological catastrophe and economic losses. Wind has totally damaged the trees in more than one fourth of forest area, which is administrated by state forests of TANAP. Next fourth of forest area has impaired structure. Mostly coniferous forests have fallen down not only in High Tatras, but also in Horehronie, Kysuce, Orava and Spis. According to estimates around 2.5 million cubic meters of wood have lain on the ground in High Tatras. This wood must be precipitately processed. In another regions totally from 800 to 900 thousands cubic meters are overcame by wind. Ecological catastrophe has come in High Tatras. Totally damaged large forests areas need to be recovered for long decades. 90 per cent of annual Slovakian wood cutting represents totally 2.5 million cubic meters. The state will invest in forest recovery from sale of calamity stuff. Reforestation of one hectare of forest costs from 80 to 90 thousands Slovak crowns (∼2666-3000 USD). Another remedies at the age to five years represent from 40 to 50 thousands Slovak crowns (1333-16666 USD). Around 1.6 billion Slovak crown (∼53.333 million USD) will be needed for reforestation of 12 thousands hectares of TANAP

Determinants of catastrophic health expenditure in iran.

Science.gov (United States)

Abolhallaje, M; Hasani, Sa; Bastani, P; Ramezanian, M; Kazemian, M

2013-01-01

This study will provide detailed specification of those variables and determinants of unpredictable health expenditure in Iran, and the requirements to reduce extensive effects of the factors affecting households' payments for health and other goods and services inappropriately. This study aims to identify measures of fair financing of health services and determinants of fair financing contribution, regarding the required share of households that prevents their catastrophic payments. In this regard, analysis of shares of households' expenditures on main groups of goods and services in urban and rural areas and in groups of deciles in the statistics from households' expenditure surveys was applied. The growth of spending in nominal values within the years 2002-2008 was considerably high and the rate for out-of-pocket payments is nearly the same or greater than the rate for total health expenditure. In 2008, urban and rural households in average pay 6.4% and 6.35% of their total expenditure on health services. Finally three categories of determinants of unfair and catastrophic payments by households were recognized in terms of households' socio-economic status, equality/inequality conditions of the distribution of risk of financing, and economic aspects of health expenditure distribution. While extending the total share of government and prepayment sources of financing health services are considered as the simplest policy for limiting out-of-pocket payments, indicators and policies introduced in this study could also be considered important and useful for the development of health sector and easing access to health services, irrespective of health financing fairness.

Academic Training: Predicting Natural Catastrophes

CERN Multimedia

Françoise Benz

2005-01-01

2005-2006 ACADEMIC TRAINING PROGRAMME LECTURE SERIES 12, 13, 14, 15, 16 December from 11:00 to 12:00 - Main Auditorium, bldg. 500 Predicting Natural Catastrophes E. OKAL / Northwestern University, Evanston, USA 1. Tsunamis -- Introduction Definition of phenomenon - basic properties of the waves Propagation and dispersion Interaction with coasts - Geological and societal effects Origin of tsunamis - natural sources Scientific activities in connection with tsunamis. Ideas about simulations 2. Tsunami generation The earthquake source - conventional theory The earthquake source - normal mode theory The landslide source Near-field observation - The Plafker index Far-field observation - Directivity 3. Tsunami warning General ideas - History of efforts Mantle magnitudes and TREMOR algorithms The challenge of 'tsunami earthquakes' Energy-moment ratios and slow earthquakes Implementation and the components of warning centers 4. Tsunami surveys Principles and methodologies Fifteen years of field surveys and re...

Catastrophe Finance: An Emerging Discipline

Science.gov (United States)

Elsner, James B.; Burch, R. King; Jagger, Thomas H.

2009-08-01

While the recent disasters in the world's financial markets demonstrate that finance theory remains far from perfected, science also faces steep challenges in the quest to predict and manage the effects of natural disasters. Worldwide, as many as half a million people have died in disasters such as earthquakes, tsunamis, and tropical cyclones since the turn of the 21st century [Wirtz, 2008]. Further, natural disasters can lead to extreme financial losses, and independent financial collapses can be exacerbated by natural disasters. In financial cost, 2008 was the second most expensive year on record for such catastrophes and for financial market declines. These extreme events in the natural and financial realms push the issue of risk management to the fore, expose the deficiencies of existing knowledge and practice, and suggest that progress requires further research and training at the graduate level.

CATASTROPHIC DISRUPTION OF COMET ISON

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Keane, Jacqueline V.; Kleyna, Jan T.; Riesen, Timm-Emmanuel; Meech, Karen J. [Institute for Astronomy, University of Hawaii, 2680 Woodlawn Drive, Honolulu, HI 96822 (United States); Milam, Stefanie N.; Charnley, Steven B. [Astrochemistry Laboratory, NASA GSFC, MS 690, Greenbelt, MD 20771 (United States); Coulson, Iain M. [Joint Astronomy Center, 660 North Aohoku Place, Hilo, HI 96720 (United States); Sekanina, Zdenek [Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, 4800 Oak Grove Drive, Pasadena, CA 91109 (United States); Kracht, Rainer, E-mail: keane@ifa.hawaii.edu [Ostlandring 53, D-25335 Elmshorn, Schleswig-Holstein (Germany)

2016-11-10

We report submillimeter 450 and 850 μ m dust continuum observations for comet C/2012 S1 (ISON) obtained at heliocentric distances 0.31–0.08 au prior to perihelion on 2013 November 28 ( r {sub h} = 0.0125 au). These observations reveal a rapidly varying dust environment in which the dust emission was initially point-like. As ISON approached perihelion, the continuum emission became an elongated dust column spread out over as much as 60″ (>10{sup 5} km) in the anti-solar direction. Deconvolution of the November 28.04 850 μ m image reveals numerous distinct clumps consistent with the catastrophic disruption of comet ISON, producing ∼5.2 × 10{sup 10} kg of submillimeter-sized dust. Orbital computations suggest that the SCUBA-2 emission peak coincides with the comet's residual nucleus.

Statistical analysis of nuclear power plant pump failure rate variability: some preliminary results

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Martz, H.F.; Whiteman, D.E.

1984-02-01

In-Plant Reliability Data System (IPRDS) pump failure data on over 60 selected pumps in four nuclear power plants are statistically analyzed using the Failure Rate Analysis Code (FRAC). A major purpose of the analysis is to determine which environmental, system, and operating factors adequately explain the variability in the failure data. Catastrophic, degraded, and incipient failure severity categories are considered for both demand-related and time-dependent failures. For catastrophic demand-related pump failures, the variability is explained by the following factors listed in their order of importance: system application, pump driver, operating mode, reactor type, pump type, and unidentified plant-specific influences. Quantitative failure rate adjustments are provided for the effects of these factors. In the case of catastrophic time-dependent pump failures, the failure rate variability is explained by three factors: reactor type, pump driver, and unidentified plant-specific influences. Finally, point and confidence interval failure rate estimates are provided for each selected pump by considering the influential factors. Both types of estimates represent an improvement over the estimates computed exclusively from the data on each pump

Application of Catastrophe Risk Modelling to Evacuation Public Policy

Science.gov (United States)

Woo, G.

2009-04-01

The decision by civic authorities to evacuate an area threatened by a natural hazard is especially fraught when the population in harm's way is extremely large, and where there is considerable uncertainty in the spatial footprint, scale, and strike time of a hazard event. Traditionally viewed as a hazard forecasting issue, civil authorities turn to scientists for advice on a potentially imminent dangerous event. However, the level of scientific confidence varies enormously from one peril and crisis situation to another. With superior observational data, meteorological and hydrological hazards are generally better forecast than geological hazards. But even with Atlantic hurricanes, the track and intensity of a hurricane can change significantly within a few hours. This complicated and delayed the decision to call an evacuation of New Orleans when threatened by Hurricane Katrina, and would present a severe dilemma if a major hurricane were appearing to head for New York. Evacuation needs to be perceived as a risk issue, requiring the expertise of catastrophe risk modellers as well as geoscientists. Faced with evidence of a great earthquake in the Indian Ocean in December 2004, seismologists were reluctant to give a tsunami warning without more direct sea observations. Yet, from a risk perspective, the risk to coastal populations would have warranted attempts at tsunami warning, even though there was significant uncertainty in the hazard forecast, and chance of a false alarm. A systematic coherent risk-based framework for evacuation decision-making exists, which weighs the advantages of an evacuation call against the disadvantages. Implicitly and qualitatively, such a cost-benefit analysis is undertaken by civic authorities whenever an evacuation is considered. With the progress in catastrophe risk modelling, such an analysis can be made explicit and quantitative, providing a transparent audit trail for the decision process. A stochastic event set, the core of a

Why the fear of nuclear energy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Widmer, S.

1981-01-01

Human nature does not change greatly in the course of centuries. In the middle ages aspirations were directed towards the next world and hopes of redemption were nourished by pictures of purgatory, hell, and the devil, which in the present day are replaced by visions of devastation caused by atomic catastrophe. That the linking of atomic energy with a menace to humanity can be effectively dispelled by rational information goes entirely unnoticed. In any case the efforts necessary to divert the population from its fear of nuclear energy are out of proportion to the results obtained. Sooner or later there will be an impatient clamour to the authorities for the construction of new nuclear power stations, but unfortunately it is not possible to say when this change of opinion will be. (A.G.P.)

The nuclear threat. 6. enl. ed.

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Anders, G.

1993-01-01

This is the sixth edition of 'The last days and end of time', augmented by a foreword, which was first published in 1972. The reflections it contains cannot become outdated because their object: the risk of global catastrophe, persists. But it continues to exist not only because we can never now hope to efface what knowledge we have of self-annihilation methods, but also because we have become frighteningly used to the fact of being threatened. What we fight is not this or that adversary who attacks, or might be got rid of, by nuclear means, but the nuclear situation as such. Since this enemy is the enemy of all human beings, those who up to now have considered each other as adversaries should rally as allies against the common threat. (orig./HP) [de

Morphological response of a barrier island system on a catastrophic event

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Fruergaard, Mikkel; Kroon, Aart

2016-01-01

storms are capable of moving large amounts of sediments over relatively short time-periods and can create barrier shoals, whereas moderate storms mostly rework the shoal or barrier and create more local erosion and/or landward migration. Catastrophic storms substantially influence long-term and large...

Abstracts of papers of international scientific conference 'Ten Years After the Chernobyl Catastrophe (Scientific Aspects of Problem)'

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Konoplya, E.F.; Amvros'ev, A.P.; Bogdevich, I.M.; Bondar', Yu.I.; Karaseva, E.I.; Lobanok, L.M.; Matsko, V.P.; Pikulik, M.M.; Rolevich, I.V.; Stozharov, A.N.; Yakushev, B.I.

1996-02-01

The collection is dedicated to the 10 anniversary of Chernobyl catastrophe and contains the results of researches carried out in Belarus, as well as in Ukraine and Russian Federation, on different aspects of the Chernobyl problems: radiation medicine and risks, biological radiation effects and their forecasting, agricultural radiology and radioecology, decontamination and radioactive waste management, socio-economic and psychologic problems caused by the Chernobyl Catastrophe. (authors)

Technology and energy at school

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hawkes, N.

1994-01-01

The teaching of technology and energy in schools requires more than simply the transfer of information. Public attitudes towards technology often contain unacknowledged contradictions, and research has shown that programmes for greater public understanding of science depend for their success on context, motivation, and on the source of the information. Exploration of the methods of science, its motivations and its limitations, should provide the basis for teaching nuclear energy in schools

Valuation of Indonesian catastrophic earthquake bonds with generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution and Cox-Ingersoll-Ross (CIR) interest rate model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gunardi,; Setiawan, Ezra Putranda

2015-01-01

Indonesia is a country with high risk of earthquake, because of its position in the border of earth’s tectonic plate. An earthquake could raise very high amount of damage, loss, and other economic impacts. So, Indonesia needs a mechanism for transferring the risk of earthquake from the government or the (reinsurance) company, as it could collect enough money for implementing the rehabilitation and reconstruction program. One of the mechanisms is by issuing catastrophe bond, ‘act-of-God bond’, or simply CAT bond. A catastrophe bond issued by a special-purpose-vehicle (SPV) company, and then sold to the investor. The revenue from this transaction is joined with the money (premium) from the sponsor company and then invested in other product. If a catastrophe happened before the time-of-maturity, cash flow from the SPV to the investor will discounted or stopped, and the cash flow is paid to the sponsor company to compensate their loss because of this catastrophe event. When we consider the earthquake only, the amount of discounted cash flow could determine based on the earthquake’s magnitude. A case study with Indonesian earthquake magnitude data show that the probability of maximum magnitude can model by generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution. In pricing this catastrophe bond, we assumed stochastic interest rate that following the Cox-Ingersoll-Ross (CIR) interest rate model. We develop formulas for pricing three types of catastrophe bond, namely zero coupon bonds, ‘coupon only at risk’ bond, and ‘principal and coupon at risk’ bond. Relationship between price of the catastrophe bond and CIR model’s parameter, GEV’s parameter, percentage of coupon, and discounted cash flow rule then explained via Monte Carlo simulation

Valuation of Indonesian catastrophic earthquake bonds with generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution and Cox-Ingersoll-Ross (CIR) interest rate model

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Gunardi,; Setiawan, Ezra Putranda [Mathematics Department, Gadjah Mada University (Indonesia)

2015-12-22

Indonesia is a country with high risk of earthquake, because of its position in the border of earth’s tectonic plate. An earthquake could raise very high amount of damage, loss, and other economic impacts. So, Indonesia needs a mechanism for transferring the risk of earthquake from the government or the (reinsurance) company, as it could collect enough money for implementing the rehabilitation and reconstruction program. One of the mechanisms is by issuing catastrophe bond, ‘act-of-God bond’, or simply CAT bond. A catastrophe bond issued by a special-purpose-vehicle (SPV) company, and then sold to the investor. The revenue from this transaction is joined with the money (premium) from the sponsor company and then invested in other product. If a catastrophe happened before the time-of-maturity, cash flow from the SPV to the investor will discounted or stopped, and the cash flow is paid to the sponsor company to compensate their loss because of this catastrophe event. When we consider the earthquake only, the amount of discounted cash flow could determine based on the earthquake’s magnitude. A case study with Indonesian earthquake magnitude data show that the probability of maximum magnitude can model by generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution. In pricing this catastrophe bond, we assumed stochastic interest rate that following the Cox-Ingersoll-Ross (CIR) interest rate model. We develop formulas for pricing three types of catastrophe bond, namely zero coupon bonds, ‘coupon only at risk’ bond, and ‘principal and coupon at risk’ bond. Relationship between price of the catastrophe bond and CIR model’s parameter, GEV’s parameter, percentage of coupon, and discounted cash flow rule then explained via Monte Carlo simulation.

About Russian nuclear energetic perspectives

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Laletin, N.I.

2003-01-01

My particular view about Russian nuclear energetics perspectives is presented. The nearest and the further perspectives are considered. The arguments are adduced that the most probable scenario of nuclear energetic development is its stabilization in the near future. Fur further development the arguments of supporters and opponents of nuclear energetics are analyzed. Three points of view are considered. The first point of view that there is not alternative for nuclear energetics. My notes are the following ones. a) I express a skeptic opinion about a statement of quick exhaustion of fossil organic fuel recourses and corresponding estimations are presented. b) It is expressed skeptic opinion about the statement that nuclear energetics can have a visual influence on ''steam effect''. c) I agree that nuclear energetics is the most ecological technology for normal work but however we can't disregard possibilities of catastrophic accidents. The second point of view that the use of nuclear energetics can't have the justification. I adduce the arguments contrary to this statement. The third point of view that nuclear energetics is a usual technology and the only criteria for discussions about what dimension and where one ought develop it is total cost of its unit. Expressed an opinion that the deceived for the choose of a way the skill of the estimate correctly and optimized so named the external parts of the unit energy costs for different energy technologies. (author)

Assessing the impoverishing effects, and factors associated with the incidence of catastrophic health care payments in Kenya.

Science.gov (United States)

Barasa, Edwine W; Maina, Thomas; Ravishankar, Nirmala

2017-02-06

Monitoring the incidence and intensity of catastrophic health expenditure, as well as the impoverishing effects of out of pocket costs to access healthcare, is a key part of benchmarking Kenya's progress towards reducing the financial burden that households experience when accessing healthcare. The study relies on data from the nationally-representative Kenya Household Expenditure and Utilization Survey conducted in 2013 (n =33,675). We undertook health equity analysis to estimate the incidence and intensity of catastrophic expenditure. Households were considered to have incurred catastrophic expenditures if their annual out of-pocket health expenditures exceeded 40% of their annual non-food expenditure. We assessed the impoverishing effects of out of pocket payments using the Kenya national poverty line. We distinguished between direct payments for healthcare such as payments for consultation, medicines, medical procedures, and total healthcare expenditure that includes direct healthcare payments and the cost of transportation to and from health facilities. We used logistic regression analysis to explore the factors associated with the incidence of catastrophic expenditures. When only direct payments to healthcare providers were considered, the incidence of catastrophic expenditures was 4.52%. When transport costs are included, the incidence of catastrophic expenditure increased to 6.58%. 453,470 Kenyans are pushed into poverty annually as a result of direct payments for healthcare. When the cost of transport is included, that number increases by more than one third to 619,541. Unemployment of the household head, presence of an elderly person, a person with a chronic ailment, a large household size, lower household social-economic status, and residence in marginalized regions of the country are significantly associated with increased odds of incurring catastrophic expenditures. Kenyan policy makers should prioritize extending pre-payment mechanisms to more

Reducing the risk of nuclear terrorism

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hibbs, R.

2005-01-01

Full text: The March 2005 'International conference on nuclear security, global directions for the future' noted that nuclear terrorism is one of the greatest threats to society. Eminent members of a multi-national panel stated that there is no one principal activity to reduce the risk of nuclear terrorism and that a combination of activities is required. This paper seeks to identify those activities by analyzing the elements that comprise the risk of nuclear terrorism. For the purpose of the analysis, risk is the product of the probability of a terrorist attack (A p ), the success of a terrorist act (S p ) and the consequence (C) of the attack: R=A p * S p * C. The paper examines each of these three elements of risk with the objective of identifying what we are doing and what else we could be doing to reduce risk. It takes into consideration some historic catastrophes, examines how they might have been prevented or their consequences reduced, and if there are lessons that are applicable to reducing the risk of nuclear terrorism. The paper demonstrates that we have concentrated on only one of the three elements of risk and offer suggestions for diminishing the risk of nuclear terrorism by addressing all the elements. (author)

Delayed cell death associated with mitotic catastrophe in γ-irradiated stem-like glioma cells

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Firat, Elke; Gaedicke, Simone; Tsurumi, Chizuko; Esser, Norbert; Weyerbrock, Astrid; Niedermann, Gabriele

2011-01-01

Stem-like tumor cells are regarded as highly resistant to ionizing radiation (IR). Previous studies have focused on apoptosis early after irradiation, and the apoptosis resistance observed has been attributed to reduced DNA damage or enhanced DNA repair compared to non-stem tumor cells. Here, early and late radioresponse of patient-derived stem-like glioma cells (SLGCs) and differentiated cells directly derived from them were examined for cell death mode and the influence of stem cell-specific growth factors. Primary SLGCs were propagated in serum-free medium with the stem-cell mitogens epidermal growth factor (EGF) and fibroblast growth factor-2 (FGF-2). Differentiation was induced by serum-containing medium without EGF and FGF. Radiation sensitivity was evaluated by assessing proliferation, clonogenic survival, apoptosis, and mitotic catastrophe. DNA damage-associated γH2AX as well as p53 and p21 expression were determined by Western blots. SLGCs failed to apoptose in the first 4 days after irradiation even at high single doses up to 10 Gy, but we observed substantial cell death later than 4 days postirradiation in 3 of 6 SLGC lines treated with 5 or 10 Gy. This delayed cell death was observed in 3 of the 4 SLGC lines with nonfunctional p53, was associated with mitotic catastrophe and occurred via apoptosis. The early apoptosis resistance of the SLGCs was associated with lower γH2AX compared to differentiated cells, but we found that the stem-cell culture cytokines EGF plus FGF-2 strongly reduce γH2AX levels. Nonetheless, in two p53-deficient SLGC lines examined γIR-induced apoptosis even correlated with EGF/FGF-induced proliferation and mitotic catastrophe. In a line containing CD133-positive and -negative stem-like cells, the CD133-positive cells proliferated faster and underwent more γIR-induced mitotic catastrophe. Our results suggest the importance of delayed apoptosis, associated mitotic catastrophe, and cellular proliferation for γIR-induced death of

Expected utility and catastrophic risk in a stochastic economy-climate model

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Ikefuji, M. [Institute of Social and Economic Research, Osaka University, Osaka (Japan); Laeven, R.J.A.; Magnus, J.R. [Department of Econometrics and Operations Research, Tilburg University, Tilburg (Netherlands); Muris, C. [CentER, Tilburg University, Tilburg (Netherlands)

2010-11-15

In the context of extreme climate change, we ask how to conduct expected utility analysis in the presence of catastrophic risks. Economists typically model decision making under risk and uncertainty by expected utility with constant relative risk aversion (power utility); statisticians typically model economic catastrophes by probability distributions with heavy tails. Unfortunately, the expected utility framework is fragile with respect to heavy-tailed distributional assumptions. We specify a stochastic economy-climate model with power utility and explicitly demonstrate this fragility. We derive necessary and sufficient compatibility conditions on the utility function to avoid fragility and solve our stochastic economy-climate model for two examples of such compatible utility functions. We further develop and implement a procedure to learn the input parameters of our model and show that the model thus specified produces quite robust optimal policies. The numerical results indicate that higher levels of uncertainty (heavier tails) lead to less abatement and consumption, and to more investment, but this effect is not unlimited.

Medical and policy considerations for nuclear and radiation accidents, incidents and terrorism.

Science.gov (United States)

Gale, Robert Peter

2017-11-01

The purpose of this review is to address the increasing medical and public concern regarding the health consequences of radiation exposure, a concern shaped not only by fear of another Chernobyl or Fukushima nuclear power facility accident but also by the intentional use of a nuclear weapon, a radiological dispersion device, a radiological exposure device, or an improved nuclear device by rogue states such as North Korea and terrorist organizations such as Al Qaeda and ISIS. The United States has the medical capacity to respond to a limited nuclear or radiation accident or incident but an effective medical response to a catastrophic nuclear event is impossible. Dealing effectively with nuclear and radiation accidents or incidents requires diverse strategies, including policy decisions, public education, and medical preparedness. I review medical consequences of exposures to ionizing radiations, likely concomitant injuries and potential medical intervention. These data should help haematologists and other healthcare professionals understand the principles of medical consequences of nuclear terrorism. However, the best strategy is prevention.

Myth and catastrophic reality: using cosmogonic mythology to identify cosmic impacts and massive plinian eruptions in holocene South America.

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Masse, W. B. (William Bruce)

2004-01-01

Major natural catastrophes (e.g., 'universal' floods, fire, darkness, and sky falling down) are prominently reflected in traditional South American creation myths, cosmology, religion, and worldview. We are now beginning to recognize that cosmogonic myths represent a rich and largely untapped data set concerning the most dramatic natural events and processes experienced by each cultural group during the past several thousand years. Observational details regarding specific catastrophes are encoded in myth storylines, typically cast in terms of supernatural characters and actions. Not only are the myths amenable to scientific analysis, but also some sets of myths encode multiple catastrophes in meaningful relative chronological order. The present study considers more than 4200 myths, including more than 260 'universal' catastrophe myths from cultural groups throughout South America. These myths are examined in light of available geological, paleoenvironmental, archeological, and documentary evidence. Our analysis reveals three possible ultra-plinian volcanic eruptions, two in Columbia and the other in the Gran Chaco, the latter likely associated with a poorly dated late Holocene eruption of Nuevo Mundo in central Bolivia. Our analysis also identifies a set of traditions likely linked with the well-known Campo del Cielo iron meteorite impact in northern Argentina originally hypothesized to have occurred around 4000 years ago. Intriguingly, these traditions strongly suggest that the Campo del Cielo impact triggered widespread mass fires in the Gran Chaco region and possibly in the Brazilian Highlands. Several other potential cosmic impacts, distinct from Campo del Cielo, are hinted at in the mythology of other locations in South America. The numerous catastrophe myths in the Gran Chaco region exhibit the most coherent chronological sequence of any South American region. The sequence begins with a 'Great Flood,' by far the most widespread

French opinion on Nuclear Energy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bucaille, A.

2003-01-01

Contrary to what many think or say, most French people do not have a clear-cut opinion about nuclear power. And until public opinion can be accurately assessed, we should be worried of speaking on its behalf. More than half the population of France believes that nuclear power is the cheapest option, but 40% of them have no idea what the situation really is. The French are keenly aware of the what is at stake at the international level, and the fact that energy is becoming a worldwide issue. What they are most concerned about is nuclear waste and the possibility of a catastrophe of the Chernobyl type occurring. Disquiet about the first is now dissipating, after having increased. But attitudes about the second are ambivalent. A quarter of the French are very ignorant about radioactivity. 20% of the population complain that not enough information is forthcoming, particularly as concerns advances in technology. As can be anticipated, awareness of the question of climate change is growing year by year, with increased reporting of storms, floods and heat waves

Oxidized zirconium on ceramic; Catastrophic coupling.

Science.gov (United States)

Ozden, V E; Saglam, N; Dikmen, G; Tozun, I R

2017-02-01

Oxidized zirconium (Oxinium™; Smith & Nephew, Memphis, TN, USA) articulated with polyethylene in total hip arthroplasty (THA) appeared to have the potential to reduce wear dramatically. The thermally oxidized metal zirconium surface is transformed into ceramic-like hard surface that is resistant to abrasion. The exposure of soft zirconium metal under hard coverage surface after the damage of oxidized zirconium femoral head has been described. It occurred following joint dislocation or in situ succeeding disengagement of polyethylene liner. We reported three cases of misuse of Oxinium™ (Smith & Nephew, Memphis, TN, USA) heads. These three cases resulted in catastrophic in situ wear and inevitable failure although there was no advice, indication or recommendation for this use from the manufacturer. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

The resilient banality of catastrophes: about After Fukushima by Jean-Luc Nancy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tonaki, Yotetsu

2016-01-01

The author proposes some thoughts based on a book (The equivalence of catastrophes - After Fukushima) written by the French philosopher Jean-Luc Nancy for whom Fukushima cannot be reduced to technological dysfunctions, nor to a factor attributable to men in charge, but reveals a system of general equivalence which supports a whole civilisation. The author refers to the speech on safety engineering and on resilience in Japan, and outlines some surprising correspondences with Nancy's writings. With a reference to Heidegger, the author shows that what the catastrophe reveals is not only daunting or abnormal phenomena, but also and above all an almost ontological condition which command the normal operation of every day life. Based on Anders' works, he examines what is on in this techno-sphere which is finally similar to a 'self-transformation of the human being'

Hydrogen atom in a magnetic field: Ghost orbits, catastrophes, and uniform semiclassical approximations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Main, J.; Wunner, G.

1997-01-01

Applying closed-orbit theory to the recurrence spectra of the hydrogen atom in a magnetic field, one can interpret most, but not all, structures semiclassically in terms of closed classical orbits. In particular, conventional closed-orbit theory fails near bifurcations of orbits where semiclassical amplitudes exhibit unphysical divergences. Here we analyze the role of ghost orbits living in complex phase space. The ghosts can explain resonance structures in the spectra of the hydrogen atom in a magnetic field at positions where no real orbits exist. For three different types of catastrophes, viz. fold, cusp, and butterfly catastrophes, we construct uniform semiclassical approximations and demonstrate that these solutions are completely determined by classical parameters of the real orbits and complex ghosts. copyright 1997 The American Physical Society

S. pombe kinesins-8 promote both nucleation and catastrophe of microtubules.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Muriel Erent

Full Text Available The kinesins-8 were originally thought to be microtubule depolymerases, but are now emerging as more versatile catalysts of microtubule dynamics. We show here that S. pombe Klp5-436 and Klp6-440 are non-processive plus-end-directed motors whose in vitro velocities on S. pombe microtubules at 7 and 23 nm s(-1 are too slow to keep pace with the growing tips of dynamic interphase microtubules in living S. pombe. In vitro, Klp5 and 6 dimers exhibit a hitherto-undescribed combination of strong enhancement of microtubule nucleation with no effect on growth rate or catastrophe frequency. By contrast in vivo, both Klp5 and Klp6 promote microtubule catastrophe at cell ends whilst Klp6 also increases the number of interphase microtubule arrays (IMAs. Our data support a model in which Klp5/6 bind tightly to free tubulin heterodimers, strongly promoting the nucleation of new microtubules, and then continue to land as a tubulin-motor complex on the tips of growing microtubules, with the motors then dissociating after a few seconds residence on the lattice. In vivo, we predict that only at cell ends, when growing microtubule tips become lodged and their growth slows down, will Klp5/6 motor activity succeed in tracking growing microtubule tips. This mechanism would allow Klp5/6 to detect the arrival of microtubule tips at cells ends and to amplify the intrinsic tendency for microtubules to catastrophise in compression at cell ends. Our evidence identifies Klp5 and 6 as spatial regulators of microtubule dynamics that enhance both microtubule nucleation at the cell centre and microtubule catastrophe at the cell ends.

A cusp catastrophe model of mid-long-term landslide evolution over low latitude highlands of China

Science.gov (United States)

Tao, Yun; Cao, Jie; Hu, Jinming; Dai, Zhicheng

2013-04-01

Based on a model describing a certain landslide case and catastrophe theory, we derived a cusp catastrophe model and corresponding inversion method to study mid-long-term landslide evolution. According to data of landslides, precipitation, and socioeconomic development from 1976 to 2008, the cusp catastrophe model describing this landslide evolution across a low-latitude highland area in China is obtained with the least squares method. Results of the model indicate that human activity determines landslide intensity. Local precipitation also impacts yearly landslide intensity to some extent, and controls the time when a strong and abrupt change in landslides occurs. During the period 1976-2008, there was an abrupt decrease of landslide intensity during 1994-1995, and an abrupt increase during 1995-1996. Since then, there have been frequent landslides in the low-latitude highland, with greater intensity. All these factors provide a scientific basis for formulating a contingency plan regarding landslide disasters.

Prevention of nuclear war

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Anon.

1990-01-01

Removing the threat of a nuclear war-as the General Assembly formally stated in the Final Document of its first special session devoted to disarmament, in 1978-is considered to be the task of the present day. In that Document, the General Assembly sought to establish principles, guidelines and procedures for preventing nuclear war. It declared that to that end, it was imperative to remove the threat of nuclear weapons, to halt and reverse the nuclear-arms race until the total elimination of nuclear weapons and their delivery systems had been achieved (see chapter iv), and to prevent the proliferation of nuclear weapons (see chapter VII). At the same time, it called for other measures designed to prevent the outbreak of nuclear war and to lessen the danger of the treat or use of nuclear weapons. The Assembly's clear call for action was dictated by the awareness that there was no insuperable barrier dividing peace from war and that, unless nations brought the spiralling nuclear-arms race to an end, the day might come when nuclear weapons would actually be used, with catastrophic consequences. In adopting the Final Document, the international community achieved, for the first time, a consensus on an international disarmament strategy having as its immediate goal the elimination of the danger of a nuclear war and the implementation of measures to halt and reverse the arms race. The General Assembly, at its second special session on disarmament, in 1982, reaffirmed the validity of the 1978 Final Document. This paper reports that nuclear issues and in particular the prevention of nuclear war remain, however, major concerns of all States. Undoubtedly, all nations have a vital interest in the negotiation of effective measures for her prevention of nuclear war, since nuclear weapons pose a unique threat to human survival. If nuclear war were to occur, its consequences would be global, not simple regional

The inherent catastrophic traps in retrograde CTO PCI.

Science.gov (United States)

Wu, Eugene B; Tsuchikane, Etsuo

2018-05-01

When we learn to drive, our driving instructor tells us how to check the side mirror and turn your head to check the blind spot before changing lanes. He tells us how to stop at stop signs, how to drive in slippery conditions, the safe stopping distances, and these all make our driving safe. Similarly, when we learn PCI, our mentors teach us to seat the guiding catheter co-axially, to wire the vessel safely, to deliver balloon and stents over the wire, to watch the pressure of the guiding, in order that we perform PCI safely and evade complications. In retrograde CTO PCI, there is no such published teaching. Also many individual mentors have not had the wide experience to see all the possible complications of retrograde CTO PCI and, therefore, may not be able to warn their apprentice. As the number of retrograde procedures increase worldwide, there is a corresponding increase in catastrophic complications, many of which, we as experts, can see are easily avoidable. To breach this gap in knowledge, this article describes 12 commonly met inherent traps in retrograde CTO PCI. They are inherent because by arranging our equipment in the manner to perform retrograde CTO PCI, these complications are either induced directly or happen easily. We hope this work will enhance safety of retrograde CTO PCI and avoid many catastrophic complications for our readers and operators. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Shipments of nuclear fuel and waste: are they really safe

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1977-10-01

The safety aspects of shipping nuclear fuels and radioactive wastes are discussed by considering: US regulations on the shipment of hazardous and radioactive materials, types of radioactive wastes; packaging methods, materials, and specifications; design of shipping containers; evaluation of the risk potential under normal shipping conditions and in accident situations. It is concluded that: the risk of public catastrophe has been eliminated by strict standards, engineering design safety, and operational care; the long-term public burden of not transporting nuclear materials is likely to be higher than the risks of carefully controlled transportation, considering the various options available; and the likelihood of death, injury, or serious property damage from the nuclear aspects of nuclear transportation is thousands of times less than the likelihood of death, injury, or serious property damage from more common hazards, such as automobile accidents, boating accidents, accidental poisoning, gunshot wounds, fires, or even falls

Nuclear security in a transformed world

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gottfried, K.; Dean, J.

1991-01-01

In the wake of the failed coup attempt in the Soviet Union, the world stands hopeful that a new era of international peace and cooperation lies ahead. President Bush's unilateral reductions in tactical nuclear weapons and in the alert levels of US forces, coupled with President Gorbachev's largely reciprocal actions, are important steps toward realizing that hope. While bold in the context of recent arms control history, however, these actions are modest in the face of the current enormous opportunity and the shifting threats the world now faces. Even with these welcome unilateral actions, the likely continued presence of thousands of nuclear weapons throughout many of the Soviet republics, the temporary uncertainty over central government command during the coup, and fuller knowledge of Iraq's aggressive efforts to build a nuclear bomb serve as stark reminders that the danger of nuclear catastrophe has not disappeared. Although a deliberate attack by the Soviet Union against the US or Europe is now almost inconceivable, nuclear weapons continue to pose significant threats to US security and world peace. These threats fall into three broad categories: a persistent risk of regional nuclear war involving countries other than the Soviet Union that are already in possession of nuclear weapons or capable of building them; the spread of nuclear weapons to other countries; accidental or unauthorized use. To meet this new challenge, three key steps must be taken: reduce dramatically Soviet and US nuclear arsenals; negotiate restrictions on the arsenals of other nuclear powers; strengthen the nuclear nonproliferation regime

Do romantic partners' responses to entry dyspareunia affect women's experience of pain? The roles of catastrophizing and self-efficacy.

Science.gov (United States)

Lemieux, Ashley J; Bergeron, Sophie; Steben, Marc; Lambert, Bernard

2013-09-01

Entry dyspareunia is a sexual health concern which affects about 21% of women in the general population. Characterized by pain provoked during vaginal penetration, introital dyspareunia has been shown by controlled studies to have a negative impact on the psychological well-being, sexual function, sexual satisfaction, and quality of life of afflicted women. Many cognitive and affective variables may influence the experience of pain and associated psychosexual problems. However, the role of the partner's cognitive responses has been studied very little. The aim of the present study was to examine the associations between partners' catastrophizing and their perceptions of women's self-efficacy at managing pain on one side and women's pain intensity, sexual function, and sexual satisfaction on the other. One hundred seventy-nine heterosexual couples (mean age for women = 31, SD = 10.0; mean age for men = 33, SD = 10.6) in which the woman suffered from entry dyspareunia participated in the study. Both partners completed quantitative measures. Women completed the Pain Catastrophizing Scale and the Painful Intercourse Self-Efficacy Scale. Men completed the significant-other versions of these measures. Dependent measures were women's responses to (i) the Pain Numeric Visual Analog Scale; (ii) the Female Sexual Function Index; and (iii) the Global Measure of Sexual Satisfaction scale. Controlled for women's pain catastrophizing and self-efficacy, results indicate that higher levels of partner-perceived self-efficacy and lower levels of partner catastrophizing are associated with decreased pain intensity in women with entry dyspareunia, although only partner catastrophizing contributed unique variance. Partner-perceived self-efficacy and catastrophizing were not significantly associated with sexual function or satisfaction in women. The findings suggest that partners' cognitive responses may influence the experience of entry dyspareunia for women, pointing

Surfeit. Philosophies of Jürgen Habermas and Jean Baudrillard against the background of St. I. Witkiewicz’s neohumanistic catastrophism

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Agnieszka Smrokowska-Reichmann

2015-03-01

Full Text Available The paper analyses the category of neo-catastrophism. Postmodern society has launched the mechanisms of self-destruction which are now working not only in interpersonal and communicative relationships, but also in the realms of axiology, ethics and even ontology. According to the author, the main aspects of Jean Baudrillard’s and Jürgen Habermas’ philosophy can be interpreted as containing such neo-catastrophic message. However, as the forerunner of neo-catastrophism in philosophy the author points out Stanisław Ignacy Witkiewicz (Witkacy, especially his theory of metaphysical feelings and their disappearance in mass society. Stanisław Ignacy Witkiewicz, known among the philosophy critics as neohumanistic catastrophist, has foreseen many categories which are typical for Habermas’ and Baudrillard’s writings. The neo-catastrophic mechanisms has a serious consequences for the condition of postmodern subject, the more so because the main part of the neocatastrophism is the strong conviction that there is no escape. The author, besides the main thesis mentioned above, highlights some common features between Baudillard’s and Habermas’ conceptions.

Will Trump harness the power of the US presidency to re-energise nuclear?

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Shepherd, John [nuclear 24, Redditch (United Kingdom)

2016-12-15

Four days after the March 2011 accident at Japan's Fukushima-Daiichi nuclear power plant, before the world knew the enormity of what had happened, a US property tycoon said in an interview on national television: ''I am strongly in favour of nuclear energy.'' In the aftermath of that catastrophe, as nuclear experts, regulators and governments were rushing to understand what had happened, the businessman did not waiver in his opinion. His words did not grab international headlines in the dark days after Fukushima. However, as of 8 November 2016, the world is now compelled to hang on the tycoon's every word - because he is now the US president-elect, Donald Trump.

German nuclear policy reconsidered. Implications for the electricity market

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fuersch, Michaela; Lindenberger, Dietmar; Malischek, Raimund; Nagl, Stephan; Panke, Timo; Trueby, Johannes

2011-01-01

In the aftermath of the nuclear catastrophe in Fukushima, German nuclear policy has been reconsidered. This paper demonstrates the economic effects of an accelerated nuclear phase-out on the German electricity generation sector. A detailed optimization model for European electricity markets is used to analyze two scenarios with different lifetimes for nuclear plants (phase-out vs. prolongation). Based on political targets, both scenarios assume significant electricity demand reductions and a high share of generation from renewable energy sources in Germany. Our principal findings are: First, nuclear capacities are mainly replaced by longer lifetimes of existing coal-fired plants and the construction of new gas-fired plants. Second, fossil fuel-based generation and power imports increase, while power exports are reduced in response to the lower nuclear generation. Third, despite the increased fossil generation, challenging climate protection goals can still be achieved within the framework of the considered scenarios. Finally, system costs and electricity prices are clearly higher. We conclude that the generation sector can generally cope with an accelerated nuclear phase-out under the given assumptions. Yet, we emphasize that such a policy requires a substantial and costly transformation of the supply and the demand side.

A cross-cultural investigation of attachment style, catastrophizing, negative pain beliefs, and symptom severity in irritable bowel syndrome.

Science.gov (United States)

Gerson, C D; Gerson, M-J; Chang, L; Corazziari, E S; Dumitrascu, D; Ghoshal, U C; Porcelli, P; Schmulson, M; Wang, W-A; Zali, M

2015-04-01

Little information exists regarding whether psychosocial variables in irritable bowel syndrome (IBS) vary by geographic location. Adult attachment is an important psychological concept rooted in childhood relationship experience that has not been previously studied in IBS. Catastrophizing and negative pain beliefs have been described in IBS and may be affected by attachment. In this cross-cultural study, we determined: (i) whether attachment differs between IBS patients and controls, (ii) whether geographic location has a significant effect on attachment style, catastrophizing and negative pain beliefs, and (iii) how all three variables correlate with IBS symptom severity. 463 IBS patients, with moderate to severe symptom scores, and 192 healthy controls completed validated questionnaires about attachment, catastrophizing, negative pain beliefs and IBS-SSS in nine locations, USA (New York, Los Angeles), Mexico, Italy (Rome, Bari), Romania, Iran, India, and China. Attachment anxiety and avoidance scores were significantly higher in IBS patients than in controls (p < 0.001). This was particularly true for the fearful-avoidant attachment category, especially in China and Romania. Path analysis showed that attachment anxiety and avoidance had indirect effects on IBS-SSS through catastrophizing (p < 0.0001) and negative pain beliefs (p = 0.005). All three psychosocial measures varied significantly depending on location. In the IBS population studied, attachment style was significantly different in IBS compared to a control population. Geographic differences in attachment, catastrophizing and negative pain beliefs were documented and their correlation with symptom severity and thus, research of psychosocial variables in IBS should take into account the location of the population studied. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Should catastrophic risks be included in a regulated competitive health insurance market?

NARCIS (Netherlands)

W.P.M.M. van de Ven (Wynand); F.T. Schut (Erik)

1994-01-01

textabstractIn 1988 the Dutch government launched a proposal for a national health insurance based on regulated competition. The mandatory benefits package should be offered by competing insurers and should cover both non-catastrophic risks (like hospital care, physician services and drugs) and

Clinically meaningful scores on pain catastrophizing before and after multidisciplinary rehabilitation: a prospective study of individuals with subacute pain after whiplash injury.

Science.gov (United States)

Scott, Whitney; Wideman, Timothy H; Sullivan, Michael J L

2014-03-01

Pain catastrophizing has emerged as a significant risk factor for problematic recovery after musculoskeletal injury. As such, there has been an increased focus on interventions that target patients' levels of catastrophizing. However, it is not presently clear how clinicians might best interpret scores on catastrophizing before and after treatment. Thus, the purpose of this study was to provide preliminary guidelines for the clinical interpretation of scores on pain catastrophizing among individuals with subacute pain after musculoskeletal injury. A sample of 166 occupationally disabled individuals with subacute pain due to a whiplash injury participated in this study. Participants completed a 7-week standardized multidisciplinary rehabilitation program aimed at fostering functional recovery. Participants completed the Pain Catastrophizing Scale (PCS) upon program commencement and completion. One year later, participants indicated their pain severity and involvement in employment activities. Separate receiver operating characteristic curve analyses were conducted to determine absolute pretreatment and posttreatment and percent change scores on the PCS that were best associated with clinically important levels of pain and employment status at the follow-up. An absolute pretreatment PCS score of 24 best identified patients according to follow-up clinical outcomes. Posttreatment PCS scores of 14 and 15 best identified patients with high follow-up pain intensity ratings and those who did not return to work, respectively. PCS reductions of approximately 38% to 44% were best associated with return to work and low pain intensity ratings at follow-up. The results indicate scores on catastrophizing before and after treatment that are clinically meaningful. These results may serve as preliminary guidelines to assess the clinical significance of interventions targeting pain catastrophizing in patients with subacute pain after musculoskeletal injury.

Balancing burn-in and mission times in environments with catastrophic and repairable failures

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bebbington, Mark; Lai, C.-D.; Zitikis, Ricardas

2009-01-01

In a system subject to both repairable and catastrophic (i.e., nonrepairable) failures, 'mission success' can be defined as operating for a specified time without a catastrophic failure. We examine the effect of a burn-in process of duration τ on the mission time x, and also on the probability of mission success, by introducing several functions and surfaces on the (τ,x)-plane whose extrema represent suitable choices for the best burn-in time, and the best burn-in time for a desired mission time. The corresponding curvature functions and surfaces provide information about probabilities and expectations related to these burn-in and mission times. Theoretical considerations are illustrated with both parametric and, separating the failures by failure mode, nonparametric analyses of a data set, and graphical visualization of results.

Pressurised water reactor. A critique of the Government's nuclear power programme

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Flood, M; Chudleigh, R; Conroy, C

1981-01-01

The subject is covered in sections, entitled: energy forecasts - their decline and fall (Department of Energy; electricity supply industry; the writing on the wall); nuclear economics - how the dream dissolved (Britain's programme - off to a bad start; the government's programme -a catastrophe about to be repeated; the cost of a British PWR; a new choice - nuclear power versus insulation); PWR safety - the unresolvable problem (one in a million (query); fundamental weaknesses; consequences of an accident; unresolved safety problems; the select committee's findings); a new energy strategy - catering for our needs (energy efficiency; district heating/combined heat and power; solar heating; liquid fuels; the international context); conclusions.

The climatic effects of nuclear war

Science.gov (United States)

Turco, R. P.; Toon, O. B.; Ackerman, T. P.; Pollack, J. B.; Sagan, C.

1984-01-01

The effects of various US-USSR nuclear-exchange scenarios on global climate are investigated by means of computer simulations, summarizing the results of Turco et al. (1983) and follow-up studies using 3D global-circulation models. A nuclear-scenario model is used to determine the amounts of dust, smoke, radioactivity, and pyrotoxins generated by a particular type of nuclear exchange (such as a general 5,000-Mt exchange, a 1,000-Mt limited exchange, a 5,000-Mt hard-target counterforce attack, and a 100-Mt attack on cities only): a particle-microphysics model predicts the evolution of the dust and smoke particles; and a radiative-convective climate model estimates the effects of the dust and smoke clouds on the global radiation budget. The findings are presented in graphs, diagrams, and a table. Thick clouds blocking most sunlight over the Northern Hemisphere midlatitudes for weeks or months and producing ground-temperature reductions of 20-40 C, disruption of global circulation patterns, and rapid spread of clouds to the Southern Hemisphere are among the 'nuclear-winter' effects predicted for the 5,000-Mt baseline case. The catastrophic consequences for plant, animal, and human populations are considered, and the revision of superpower nuclear strategies is urged.

Energy controversy: the role of nuclear power

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Schmidt, F.H.; Bodansky, D.

1975-02-01

The objective of the paper presented is to show that nuclear fission power is the best, and maybe the only, alternative source of energy. It is written for a wide range of readers, including non-scientists and scientists who are not particularly informed on the issues involved. The first question considered concerns man's need for energy; it is concluded that conservation measures alone cannot suffice. Next, the earth's energy sources are examined, and the extent of each is estimated in the simple context of the length of time it could last at present use rates. Only nuclear fission, nuclear fusion, and solar energy can provide for future time scales commensurate with man's historic past, while avoiding the possibility of catastrophic social upheaval. Fusion and solar energy are rejected on technological grounds because the world energy problem is so pressing that one cannot gamble on hopes for future technological breakthroughs. Thus, only nuclear fission meets the twin criteria of technological feasibility and adequate resource base. Each of the controversial issues surrounding nuclear fission energy is examined in some detail. The conclusion is reached that none is serious, and that nuclear fission offers by far the best energy source from environmental, economic, longevity, and overall safety standpoints

The international trade of nuclear power plants: the supply side - 5006

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Leveque, F.

2015-01-01

The international trade of nuclear power plants is usually studied from a demand perspective. Which new countries are willing to access to this technology? How the Fukushima Daiichi catastrophe has changed the market forecasts? What risks of proliferation new entrants entail? This paper takes an opposite direction. It looks at the structure and the organising of the supply side. Which countries are the major exporters? How their ranking has changed? Is the nuclear export industry becoming a global industry? Part 1 provides a short description of the worldwide market. Surprisingly, its size is modest and the US only plays a minor role. This part also provides a view on the relationship between domestic and export markets. Part 2 discusses the industrial organization of the nuclear industry. It compares the nuclear industry with the armament industry and the oil and gas supplies and services. Part 3 concludes in analysing the conditions nuclear industry could become a global industry. (author)

Thermal thresholds and catastrophizing in individuals with chronic pain after whiplash injury.

Science.gov (United States)

Raak, Ragnhild; Wallin, Mia

2006-10-01

Thermal sensitivity, thermal pain thresholds, and catastrophizing were examined in individuals with whiplash associated disorders (WAD) and in healthy pain-free participants. Quantitative sensory testing (QST) was used to measure skin sensitivity to cold and warmth and cold and heat pain thresholds over both the thenar eminence and the trapezius muscle (TrM) in 17 participants with WAD (age 50.8 +/- 11.3 years) and 18 healthy participants (age 44.8 +/- 10.2 years). The Pain Catastrophizing Scale (PCS) was used to determine pain coping strategies, and visual analogue scales were used for self-assessment of current background pain in individuals in the WAD group as well as experienced pain intensity and unpleasantness after QST and sleep quality in all participants. There were significant differences in warmth threshold and cold and heat pain thresholds of the TrM site between the WAD and pain-free groups. Significant differences between the two groups were also found for the catastrophizing dimension of helplessness in the PCS and in self-assessed quality of sleep. A correlational analysis showed that current background pain is significantly correlated with both cold discrimination and cold pain threshold in the skin over the TrM in individuals with WAD. These findings imply that thermal sensitivity is an important factor to consider in providing nursing care to individuals with WAD. Because biopsychosocial factors also influence the experience of pain in individuals with WAD, the role of nurses includes not only the description of the pain phenomenon but also the identification of relieving and aggravating factors.

Berm design to reduce risks of catastrophic slope failures at solid waste disposal sites.

Science.gov (United States)

De Stefano, Matteo; Gharabaghi, Bahram; Clemmer, Ryan; Jahanfar, M Ali

2016-11-01

Existing waste disposal sites are being strained by exceeding their volumetric capacities because of exponentially increasing rates of municipal solid waste generation worldwide, especially in densely populated metropolises. Over the past 40 years, six well-documented and analyzed disposal sites experienced catastrophic failure. This research presents a novel analysis and design method for implementation of a series of in-situ earth berms to slow down the movement of waste material flow following a catastrophic failure. This is the first study of its kind that employs a dynamic landslide analysis model, DAN-W, and the Voellmy rheological model to approximate solid waste avalanche flow. A variety of single and multiple berm configuration scenarios were developed and tested to find an optimum configuration of the various earth berm geometries and number of berms to achieve desired energy dissipation and reduction in total waste material runout length. The case study application of the novel mitigation measure shows that by constructing a series of six relatively inexpensive 3 m high earth berms at an optimum distance of 250 m from the slope toe, the total runout length of 1000 m and associated fatalities of the Leuwigajah dumpsite catastrophic failure in Bandung, Indonesia, could have been reduced by half. © The Author(s) 2016.

Can a stochastic cusp catastrophe model explain stock market crashes?

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Baruník, Jozef; Vošvrda, Miloslav

2009-01-01

Roč. 33, č. 10 (2009), s. 1824-1836 ISSN 0165-1889 R&D Projects: GA ČR GD402/09/H045; GA ČR GA402/09/0965 Grant - others:GAUK(CZ) 46108 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z10750506 Keywords : Stochastic cusp catastrophe * Bifurcations * Singularity * Nonlinear dynamics * Stock market crash Subject RIV: AH - Economics Impact factor: 1.097, year: 2009

Act of 9 December 1983 approving an Agreement between the Governments of Belgium and France on mutual assistance in the event of catastrophes and serious accidents, signed in Paris on 21 April 1981

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1984-01-01

This Agreement between Belgium and France lays down a comprehensive legal framework for mutual emergency assistance. It provides that rescue teams will be sent by the Parties in all cases of catastrophe and serious accidents, including nuclear incidents. The Agreement also contains provisions on administrative competences, on quick border crossings by the rescue teams as well as on their supervision. Finally, other provisions settle the question of the costs incurred by assistance, compensation of damage and exchange of information. (NEA) [fr

Assessing and modelling catastrophic risk perceptions and attitudes in agriculture: a review

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Ogurtsov, V.; Asseldonk, van M.A.P.M.; Huirne, R.B.M.

2008-01-01

Catastrophic risks result in high losses in agriculture. To cope with such losses farmers need to apply risk management strategies to balance their profits and risks. Therefore risk assessment and risk modelling are important to support farm-level decision-making. This paper (1) reviews the

Perceptions of Challenge: The Role of Catastrophe Theory in Piano Learning

Science.gov (United States)

Bugos, Jennifer; Lee, William

2015-01-01

The purpose of this study is to evaluate the perceptions of private piano instructors on the role of challenge in teaching and learning the piano and to examine the potential application of catastrophe theory in understanding the role and outcomes of such challenges. A 23-item electronic questionnaire was administered to collect quantitative and…

No ''all clear'' signal yet. Although the West has set up support programmes for nuclear power plants in eastern Europe

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Roehrlich, D.

1996-01-01

During the first years after the catastrophic nuclear accident at Chernobyl, reports on Soviet nuclear power plants leaking to the west seldom contained hard facts. Now, after five years of a partnership between east and west in matters of reactor safety, things are clearer. What the commitment of the west to more reactor safety in eastern Europe means in practice was the subject of the winter meeting of the Deutsches Atomforum, Bonn. (orig.) [de

Psychometric Properties of the Catastrophic Cognitions Questionnaire-Modified (CCQ-Modified) Among Community Samples in Malaysia.

Science.gov (United States)

Abdul Khaiyom, Jamilah Hanum; Mukhtar, Firdaus; Ibrahim, Normala; Mohd Sidik, Sherina; Oei, Tian Po Sumantri

2016-12-01

The Catastrophic Cognitions Questionnaire-Modified (CCQ-M) is a common instrument for measuring catastrophic thoughts. In some countries, however, CCQ-M still poses concerns following the lack of appropriate validation among their populations. The current study aimed to examine the factor structure of the CCQ-M, the reliability, and the validity in community samples in Malaysia. The Malay version of CCQ-M and additional measures assessing the symptoms and cognitions relevant to anxiety disorders were completed by 682 university students and general community. Exploratory factor analysis revealed a two-factor structure accounting for 62.2% of the total variance. Confirmatory factor analysis confirmed the two-factor model by deleting four items. The Cronbach's alpha coefficients for the total and the two subscales were .94, .90, and .92, respectively. Test-retest reliability analysis was conducted on 82 university students in the interval period of 14 days, and the result was r = .58. Evidence supported the concurrent, convergent, and discriminant validity. In conclusion, the 17-item CCQ-M-Malaysia is a valid and reliable instrument for assessing catastrophic cognitions among Malaysian populations. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Zeeman catastrophe machines as a toolkit for teaching chaos

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nagy, Péter; Tasnádi, Péter

2014-01-01

The investigation of chaotic motions and cooperative systems offers a magnificent opportunity to involve modern physics in the basic course of mechanics taught to engineering students. In this paper, it will be demonstrated that the Zeeman machine can be a versatile and motivating tool for students to acquire introductory knowledge about chaotic motion via interactive simulations. The Zeeman catastrophe machine is a typical example of a quasi-static system with hysteresis. It works in a relatively simple way and its properties can be understood very easily. Since the machine can be built easily and the simulation of its movement is also simple, the experimental investigation and the theoretical description can be connected intuitively. Although the Zeeman machine is known mainly for its quasi-static and catastrophic behaviour, its dynamic properties are also of interest with its typical chaotic features. By means of a periodically driven Zeeman machine, a wide range of chaotic properties of the simple systems can be demonstrated, such as bifurcation diagrams, chaotic attractors, transient chaos, Lyapunov exponents and so on. This paper is organically linked to our website (http://csodafizika.hu/zeeman) where the discussed simulation programs can be downloaded. In a second paper, the novel construction of a network of Zeeman machines will be presented to study the properties of cooperative systems. (paper)

Grasshopper Population Ecology: Catastrophe, Criticality, and Critique

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Dale R. Lockwood

2008-06-01

Full Text Available Grasshopper population dynamics are an important part of the North American rangeland ecosystem and an important factor in the economies that derive from the rangeland. Outbreak dynamics have plagued management strategies in the rangeland, and attempts to find simple, linear and mechanistic solutions to both understanding and predicting the dynamics have proved fruitless. These efforts to ground theory in a correspondence with the "real" world, including whether the population dynamics are ultimately density dependent or density independent, have generated abundant heat but little light. We suggest that a pragmatic approach, in which theories are taken to be "tools" rather than competing claims of truth, has greater promise to move ecological research in a constructive direction. Two recent non-linear approaches exploiting the tools of complexity science provide insights relevant to explaining and forecasting population dynamics. Observation and data collection were used to structure models derived from catastrophe theory and self-organized criticality. These models indicate that nonlinear processes are important in the dynamics of the outbreaks. And the conceptual structures of these approaches provide clear, albeit constrained or contingent, implications for pest managers. We show that, although these two frameworks, catastrophe theory and self-organized criticality, are very different, the frequency distributions of time series from both systems result in power law relationships. Further, we show that a simple lattice-based model, similar to SOC but structured on the biology of the grasshoppers gives a spatial time series similar to data over a 50-year span and the frequency distribution is also a power law relationship. This demonstration exemplifies how a "both-and" rather than an "either-or" approach to ecological modeling, in which the useful elements of particular theories or conceptual structures are extracted, may provide a way forward

Non-catastrophic release requirements for the next generation of nuclear power plants

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kroeger, W.

1988-01-01

In the light of the Chernobyl disaster more restrictive advanced safety criteria (ASC), originally developed for urban siting, may help to increase public acceptance of nuclear power. The basic idea is to limit the activity release resulting from beyond-design severe accidents in such a way that off-site counter (emergency)-measures do not need to be considered for the short-term and long-term protection of the public and the financial damage can be coped with easily by the society. Conservative dose calculation principles are proposed to demonstrate compliance. Severe accidents include all event sequences which dominate risk and need to be identified by PSA. (orig.)

Introducing Catastrophe-QSAR. Application on Modeling Molecular Mechanisms of Pyridinone Derivative-Type HIV Non-Nucleoside Reverse Transcriptase Inhibitors

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Marius Lazea

2011-12-01

Full Text Available The classical method of quantitative structure-activity relationships (QSAR is enriched using non-linear models, as Thom’s polynomials allow either uni- or bi-variate structural parameters. In this context, catastrophe QSAR algorithms are applied to the anti-HIV-1 activity of pyridinone derivatives. This requires calculation of the so-called relative statistical power and of its minimum principle in various QSAR models. A new index, known as a statistical relative power, is constructed as an Euclidian measure for the combined ratio of the Pearson correlation to algebraic correlation, with normalized t-Student and the Fisher tests. First and second order inter-model paths are considered for mono-variate catastrophes, whereas for bi-variate catastrophes the direct minimum path is provided, allowing the QSAR models to be tested for predictive purposes. At this stage, the max-to-min hierarchies of the tested models allow the interaction mechanism to be identified using structural parameter succession and the typical catastrophes involved. Minimized differences between these catastrophe models in the common structurally influential domains that span both the trial and tested compounds identify the “optimal molecular structural domains” and the molecules with the best output with respect to the modeled activity, which in this case is human immunodeficiency virus type 1 HIV-1 inhibition. The best molecules are characterized by hydrophobic interactions with the HIV-1 p66 subunit protein, and they concur with those identified in other 3D-QSAR analyses. Moreover, the importance of aromatic ring stacking interactions for increasing the binding affinity of the inhibitor-reverse transcriptase ligand-substrate complex is highlighted.

Emerging Environmental Justice Issues in Nuclear Power and Radioactive Contamination

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Dean Kyne

2016-07-01

Full Text Available Nuclear hazards, linked to both U.S. weapons programs and civilian nuclear power, pose substantial environment justice issues. Nuclear power plant (NPP reactors produce low-level ionizing radiation, high level nuclear waste, and are subject to catastrophic contamination events. Justice concerns include plant locations and the large potentially exposed populations, as well as issues in siting, nuclear safety, and barriers to public participation. Other justice issues relate to extensive contamination in the U.S. nuclear weapons complex, and the mining and processing industries that have supported it. To approach the topic, first we discuss distributional justice issues of NPP sites in the U.S. and related procedural injustices in siting, operation, and emergency preparedness. Then we discuss justice concerns involving the U.S. nuclear weapons complex and the ways that uranium mining, processing, and weapons development have affected those living downwind, including a substantial American Indian population. Next we examine the problem of high-level nuclear waste and the risk implications of the lack of secure long-term storage. The handling and deposition of toxic nuclear wastes pose new transgenerational justice issues of unprecedented duration, in comparison to any other industry. Finally, we discuss the persistent risks of nuclear technologies and renewable energy alternatives.

Emerging Environmental Justice Issues in Nuclear Power and Radioactive Contamination.

Science.gov (United States)

Kyne, Dean; Bolin, Bob

2016-07-12

Nuclear hazards, linked to both U.S. weapons programs and civilian nuclear power, pose substantial environment justice issues. Nuclear power plant (NPP) reactors produce low-level ionizing radiation, high level nuclear waste, and are subject to catastrophic contamination events. Justice concerns include plant locations and the large potentially exposed populations, as well as issues in siting, nuclear safety, and barriers to public participation. Other justice issues relate to extensive contamination in the U.S. nuclear weapons complex, and the mining and processing industries that have supported it. To approach the topic, first we discuss distributional justice issues of NPP sites in the U.S. and related procedural injustices in siting, operation, and emergency preparedness. Then we discuss justice concerns involving the U.S. nuclear weapons complex and the ways that uranium mining, processing, and weapons development have affected those living downwind, including a substantial American Indian population. Next we examine the problem of high-level nuclear waste and the risk implications of the lack of secure long-term storage. The handling and deposition of toxic nuclear wastes pose new transgenerational justice issues of unprecedented duration, in comparison to any other industry. Finally, we discuss the persistent risks of nuclear technologies and renewable energy alternatives.

Impact of a natural catastrophe on life events.

Science.gov (United States)

Janney, J G; Masuda, M; Holmes, T H

1977-06-01

A major earthquake struck Peru in May 1970. This post-quake study compares the impact of this natural catastrophe on the residents of two different cities; one was 90 percent levelled by the quake and one was untouched. A relatively homogeneous population of Peruvians obtained from the two cities completed two paper-and-pencil tests, the Social Readjustment Rating Questionnaire (SRRQ) and the Schedule of Recent Experience (SRE). Both questionnaires were adapted from the SRRQ which had been translated for studies in Spain and EL Salvador. The data from the SRRQ generated two Peruvian Social Readjustment Rating Scales (SRRS), one for each of the cities studied. The differences in the two scales were striking. The lowest intra-cultural correlation yet observed on four studies was obtained. Comparison with a United States population yielded no significant relationships (rs = 0.15), the first time this has occurred in nine intercultural studies. A comparison of the profile of items generated by their subjective magnitude estimations indicated striking qualitative and quantitative differences between the two populations. The SRE generated frequency of occurrence of items and life change magnitudes in five proscribed time intervals. Significant differences in these two quantitative indices (including the health change items) were observed in the two populations in some of the time intervals and not in others. The data formulated suggest that the occurrence of a natural catastrophe--an earthquake which devastated one city--accounted for much of the difference observed between the populations of the two cities.

Global Catastrophes in Earth History: An Interdisciplinary Conference on Impacts, Volcanism, and Mass Mortality

Science.gov (United States)

1988-01-01

Topics addressed include: Cretaceous-Tertiary mass extinctions; geologial indicators for meteorite collisions; carbon dioxide catastrophes; volcanism; climatic changes; geochemistry; mineralogy; fossil records; biospheric traumas; stratigraphy; mathematical models; and ocean dynamics.

Trends in nuclear third party liability law

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Avossa, G.

1992-01-01

For some ten years now, nuclear third-party liability has been changing at an ever-faster pace, further accelerated by the Chernobyl catastrophe. Some of these changes are discussed in this article. A joint protocol drawn up by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and the Nuclear Energy Agency (NEA) mutually extends the benefit of the special third-party liability system regarding nuclear damage instituted by virtue of previous Conventions and settles the conflicts of law likely to result from the simultaneous application of the two international instruments. Within the framework of the IAEA, a review procedure of the Convention of Vienna has been underway since 1989, in which the NEA has taken an integral part. At the outcome of the process underway, not only will the Convention of Vienna be revised, but so, indirectly but very rapidly, will the Conventions of Paris and Brussels. Ultimately, the entire field of nuclear third-party liability will be recast for decades to come. The texts under discussion are as yet nowhere near their final stage but two areas of consideration have already emerged, which will be discussed. Substantial modifications are made in nuclear third-party liability law. Secondly, the indemnification process for nuclear damage will be vastly modified, due to the subsidiary nature of government intervention and new obligations on operators to become members of a Nuclear Operator Pool. (author)

Quantitative Evaluation of Heavy Duty Machine Tools Remanufacturing Based on Modified Catastrophe Progression Method

Science.gov (United States)

shunhe, Li; jianhua, Rao; lin, Gui; weimin, Zhang; degang, Liu

2017-11-01

The result of remanufacturing evaluation is the basis for judging whether the heavy duty machine tool can remanufacture in the EOL stage of the machine tool lifecycle management.The objectivity and accuracy of evaluation is the key to the evaluation method.In this paper, the catastrophe progression method is introduced into the quantitative evaluation of heavy duty machine tools’ remanufacturing,and the results are modified by the comprehensive adjustment method,which makes the evaluation results accord with the standard of human conventional thinking.Using the catastrophe progression method to establish the heavy duty machine tools’ quantitative evaluation model,to evaluate the retired TK6916 type CNC floor milling-boring machine’s remanufacturing.The evaluation process is simple,high quantification,the result is objective.

There's More Than Catastrophizing in Chronic Pain: Low Frustration Tolerance and Self-Downing Also Predict Mental Health in Chronic Pain Patients.

Science.gov (United States)

Suso-Ribera, Carlos; Jornet-Gibert, Montsant; Ribera Canudas, Maria Victoria; McCracken, Lance M; Maydeu-Olivares, Alberto; Gallardo-Pujol, David

2016-06-01

Among the potential range of irrational beliefs that could be used as predictors of physical and mental health, catastrophizing is the process that has received most attention in chronic pain research. Other irrational processes such as demandingness, low frustration tolerance, and self-downing have rarely been studied. The goal of this study was to explore whether this wider range of beliefs is associated with health in chronic pain patients beyond catastrophizing. A total of 492 chronic pain patients completed a measure of irrational beliefs, a measure of physical and mental health, and a numerical rating scale designed to assess pain intensity and interference. Irrational processes were more strongly associated with mental than with physical health. Low frustration tolerance and self-downing were found to be significantly related to mental health even after controlling for the effect of catastrophizing. Processes other than catastrophizing appear to have potentially important relationships with the mental health of people with chronic pain. These results may offer new intervention targets for practitioners.

15 years after Chernobyl. Nuclear power and climate change?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Schneider, M.

2001-04-01

Fifteen years after two massive explosions and a subsequent fire released a giant radioactive cloud into the atmosphere over the Chernobyl nuclear power plant located in what used to be the USSR, 388 farms with 230,000 sheep in Wales, England and Scotland are still subject to restriction orders. The contamination levels stand at several hundred Becquerels of cesium per kilogram of meat, too much to be consumed by human beings. The sheep have to be moved for some time to low or non-contaminated pastures in order to allow the bodies to loose some of their radioactivity before they can be slaughtered. For many countries the 1986 Chernobyl catastrophe came a public turning point for the future of nuclear energy. (author)

Improvised Nuclear Device Case Study

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Buddemeier, Brooke [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Suski, Nancy [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States)

2011-07-12

Reducing the casualties of catastrophic terrorist attacks requires an understanding of weapons of mass destruction (WMD) effects, infrastructure damage, atmospheric dispersion, and health effects. The Federal Planning Guidance for Response to a Nuclear Detonation provides the strategy for response to an improvised nuclear device (IND) detonation. The supporting science developed by national laboratories and other technical organizations for this document significantly improves our understanding of the hazards posed by such an event. Detailed fallout predictions from the advanced suite of three-dimensional meteorology and plume/fallout models developed at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, including extensive global geographical and real-time meteorological databases to support model calculations, are a key part of response planning. This presentation describes the methodology and results to date, including visualization aids developed for response organizations. These products have greatly enhanced the community planning process through first-person points of view and description of the dynamic nature of the event.

Effects of nuclear war on health and health services. 2. edition.

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1987-01-01

In 1981 the World Health Assembly decided to establish an international committee of scientists and experts to study and report on the effects of nuclear war on health and health services. The first report, published in 1984, concluded that it was impossible to prepare health services to deal in any systematic way with a catastrophe resulting from nuclear warfare. This second report incorporates the results of new studies using modern analytical techniques. It focuses not only on the direct effects of nuclear conflict on human beings, but also on the environmental effects - on climate, agriculture and social and economic infrastructure, all of which would profoundly influence human life in both the short- and long-term. The psychological effects of living under the threat of nuclear war are also examined. The experts concluded that no health service anywhere in the world would be able to deal significantly with the appalling health consequences of nuclear war, especially since the health services themselves would be largely destroyed or incapacitated. In the circumstances the experts emphasized the importance of preventing a nuclear conflict. Refs, figs and tabs

Active control with delay of catastrophic motion and horseshoes chaos in a single well Duffing oscillator

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nana Nbendjo, B.R.; Salissou, Y.; Woafo, P.

2005-01-01

In this paper, the control of escape and Melnikov chaos of an harmonically excited particle from a catastrophic (unbounded) single well phi 4 potential is considered. In the linear limit, the range of the control gain parameter leading to good control is obtained and the effect of time delays on the control force is taken into account. The approximate critical external forcing amplitudes for catastrophe and chaos are obtained by using the energy and Melnikov methods. The control efficiency is found by analysing the behaviour of the external critical forcing amplitude of the controlled system as compared to that of the uncontrolled system

Death Anxiety and Pain Catastrophizing Among Male Inmates With Nonsuicidal Self-Injury Behavior: A Comparative Study.

Science.gov (United States)

Enea, Violeta; Dafinoiu, Ion; Bogdan, Georgiana; Matei, Carmen

2017-07-01

Most of the studies concerning nonsuicidal self-injury behaviors of persons deprived of liberty were on female participants. This cross-sectional comparative study compared the levels of death anxiety, pain catastrophizing, dissociative experiences, and state-trait anger among male inmates with nonsuicidal self-injury behaviors and noninjuring controls. The results indicated high levels of death anxiety, dissociation, and pain catastrophizing in both groups of participants and the absence of significant differences between the groups. The implications of the results suggest the need of taking into consideration these variables in the behavior management plans used with inmates who engage in self-injurious behavior.

The Fukushima Daiichi nuclear accident final report of the AESJ investigation committee

CERN Document Server

Atomic Energy Society of Japan

2015-01-01

The Magnitude 9 Great East Japan Earthquake on March 11, 2011, followed by a massive tsunami struck  TEPCO’s Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Station and triggered an unprecedented core melt/severe accident in Units 1 – 3. The radioactivity release led to the evacuation of local residents, many of whom still have not been able to return to their homes. As a group of nuclear experts, the Atomic Energy Society of Japan established the Investigation Committee on the Nuclear Accident at the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Station, to investigate and analyze the accident from scientific and technical perspectives for clarifying the underlying and fundamental causes, and to make recommendations. The results of the investigation by the AESJ Investigation Committee has been compiled herewith as the Final Report. Direct contributing factors of the catastrophic nuclear incident at Fukushima Daiichi NPP initiated by an unprecedented massive earthquake/ tsunami – inadequacies in tsunami measures, severe accident ma...

Organizational learning in high risk technologies: Evidence from the nuclear power industry

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Marcus, A.; Bromiley, P.; Nichols, M.

1990-01-01

Technologies where catastrophe is possible pose dangers not only to the immediate victims, but also to innocent bystanders and to future generations who have no control over the system. The question has been raised as to whether organization theory can be extended to such high risk technologies; for, after all, this theory is based on organizations that do not have catastrophic potential. It has been argued that there may be special features of high risk technologies, for example the need to combine structured and disciplined organizational forms with decentralization to deal with unplanned interactions, that makes the application of organization theory especially difficult. Furthermore, there has been relatively little empirical work on the management of high risk technologies (with regard to the nuclear power industry the exceptions are noted); and much of what is known comes from case analyses. This paper attempts to respond to these challenges, first, by taking a concept from organizational theory and applying it to a high risk technology, and second, by trying to empirically relate measures of this concept to measures of safety. The concept is organizational learning. The authors wish to determine if there is evidence of learning in the nuclear power industry, and, if there is evidence of learning, what form this learning takes

Assessing the economic burden of illness for tuberculosis patients in Benin: determinants and consequences of catastrophic health expenditures and inequities.

Science.gov (United States)

Laokri, Samia; Dramaix-Wilmet, Michèle; Kassa, Ferdinand; Anagonou, Séverin; Dujardin, Bruno

2014-10-01

To inform policy-making, we measured the risk, causes and consequences of catastrophic expenditures for tuberculosis and investigated potential inequities. Between August 2008 and February 2009, a cross-sectional study was conducted among all (245) smear-positive pulmonary tuberculosis patients of six health districts from southern Benin. A standardised survey questionnaire covered the period of time elapsing from onset of tuberculosis symptoms to completion of treatment. Total direct cost exceeding the conventional 10% threshold of annual income was defined as catastrophic and used as principal outcome in a multivariable logistic regression. A sensitivity analysis was performed while varying the thresholds. A pure gradient of direct costs of tuberculosis in relation to income was observed. Incidence (78.1%) and intensity (14.8%) of catastrophic expenditure were high; varying thresholds was insensitive to the intensity. Incurring catastrophic expenditure was independently associated with lower- and middle-income quintiles (adjusted odd ratio (aOR) = 36.2, 95% CI [12.3-106.3] and aOR = 6.4 [2.8-14.6]), adverse pre-diagnosis stage (aOR = 5.4 [2.2-13.3]) and less education (aOR = 4.1[1.9-8.7]). Households incurred important days lost due to TB, indebtedness (37.1%), dissaving (51.0%) and other coping strategies (52.7%). Catastrophic direct costs and substantial indirect and coping costs may persist under the 'free' tuberculosis diagnosis and treatment strategy, as well as inequities in financial hardship. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Catastrophic Incident Recovery: Long-Term Recovery from an Anthrax Event Symposium

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lesperance, Ann M.

2008-06-30

On March 19, 2008, policy makers, emergency managers, and medical and Public Health officials convened in Seattle, Washington, for a workshop on Catastrophic Incident Recovery: Long-Term Recovery from an Anthrax Event. The day-long symposium was aimed at generating a dialogue about restoration and recovery through a discussion of the associated challenges that impact entire communities, including people, infrastructure, and critical systems.

Russia's nuclear policy in the 21. century environment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Trenin, D.

2005-01-01

While little noticed by the public, the nuclear standoff that had long been associated with the Soviet-U.S. confrontation continues to exist even a decade and a half after the official end of the Cold War. Nuclear weapons, developed and perfected in the environment of the U.S.-Soviet politico-military confrontation, which they soon came to epitomize, continue to play a prominent role in Washington's and Moscow's defense and security policies. Nuclear deterrence has not been abolished by official zero targeting of missiles and warheads. Even as arsenals are being reduced, modernization and research go ahead. Moreover, in the 21. century's strategic environment, whose principal features include the spread of weapons of mass destruction and catastrophic terrorism; the rise of China as America's future competitor, and the nuclearization of India; and, finally, a general politico-strategic uncertainty, the usability of nuclear weapons, both political and military, is being subtly reconsidered. In the opinion of some experts, a second nuclear age has come. This paper discusses the official nuclear policy of the Russian Federation and the evolution of Russian thinking on the role of nuclear weapons in the 21. century. It seeks to explain the importance of nuclear weapons for post-Soviet Russia; the post-Cold War deterrence strategy; the development of the nuclear forces structure and their missions; as well as Russia's approaches to nuclear arms control and nuclear proliferation. Finally, the paper examines the place and role of Russia in the multipolar nuclear constellation of this new century. (author)

Metallicity at interphase boundaries due to polar catastrophe induced by charge density discontinuity

KAUST Repository

Albar, Arwa; Tahini, Hassan Ali; Schwingenschlö gl, Udo

2018-01-01

the electronic states at stoichiometric SnO/SnO2 (110) interphase boundaries. In this system, one would not expect polar catastrophe to have a role according to state-of-the-art theory because the interface lacks formal charge discontinuity. However, we observe

Nuclear energy. The post-Fukushima situation, debate about the French exception, the energy transition

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bezat, J.M.; Tazieff, H.; Morin, H.; Le Hir, P.; Vincent, C.; Labbe, M.H.; Viansson-Ponte, P.; Saint-James, D.; Tatu, M.; Pons, P.; Kempf, H.; Lemaitre, F.; Baudet, M.B.; Armagnac, B. d'; Allix, G.; Foucart, S.; Barroux, R.

2011-01-01

Published 8 months after the Fukushima Dai-ichi accident, this special issue of Le Monde newspaper takes stock of the nuclear question. Prior to the Fukushima accident, the civil nuclear industry experienced two other major accidents: Three Miles Island (US, 1979) with limited and controlled impacts, and Chernobyl (USSR, 1986) with enormous impacts. The recent Japanese catastrophe has revived the questions concerning this risky technology. However, according to the IAEA, the civil nuclear energy should continue to develop in the future but in a more moderate way. Germany announced in June 2011 the shutdown of its last reactor by 2022, while France remained an exception until the Fukushima accident with a large political consensus among the general public in favor of nuclear energy. The nuclear phasing out or the energy transition is a complex question which is explored in this special issue. Content: 1 - The nuclear world: a moderate growth of the nuclear industry; interview of Mohamed ElBaradei, former head of IAEA; 441 reactors in operation in the world in January 2011; France has chosen the all-nuclear option; critics: a 'costly, unadapted, useless' nuclear program; interview of Valery Giscard d'Estaing, former French President; the nuclear industry actors; nuclear dismantling: a what cost?; how to manage the 250.000 tons of spent fuels; 2 - A risky technology: radioactivity measurement and effects; how to manage contaminations; four generations of reactors; ITER: a solar project; imagining the unimaginable and anticipating the worse; the wake up of a dozed off fear; the most important accidents: the progress of the three main nuclear catastrophes, the human mistake of Three Mile Island, the days after the Chernobyl accident, in the dead cities around Fukushima; interview of Kenzaburo Oe (Japanese writer); the Blayais power plant to the test; 3 - The energy transition: is France capable to abandon nuclear energy?; Germany is going to re-launch gas- and coal

Preventing Catastrophe: U.S. Policy Options for the Management of Nuclear Weapons in South Asia

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

Wojtyaiak, Martin

2001-01-01

The "peaceful nuclear explosion" of an Indian device in 1974 was a watershed event that called upon the U,S to focus its nonproliferation policy in South Asia, During the mid-198Os, Pakistan developed...

Treatment of catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome

Science.gov (United States)

Kazzaz, Nayef M.; McCune, W. Joseph; Knight, Jason S.

2016-01-01

Purpose of review Catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome (CAPS) is a severe manifestation of APS. While affecting only 1% of patients with APS, the condition is frequently fatal if not recognized and treated early. Here, we will review the current approach to diagnosis and treatment of CAPS. Recent findings Data from the international “CAPS registry,” spearheaded by the European Forum on Antiphospholipid Antibodies, have improved our understanding of at-risk patients, typical clinical features, and associated/precipitating diagnoses. Current guidelines also continue to support a role for anticoagulants and glucocorticoids as foundation therapy in all patients. Finally, new basic science and case series suggest that novel therapies, such as rituximab and eculizumab warrant further study. Summary Attention to associated diagnoses such as infection and systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) are critical at the time of diagnosis. All patients should be treated with anticoagulation, corticosteroids, and possibly plasma exchange. In patients with SLE, cyclophosphamide should also be considered. In refractory or relapsing cases, new therapies such as rituximab and possibly eculizumab may be options, but need further study. PMID:26927441

Hypokalemia-associated catastrophic rhabdomyolysis in ulcerative colitis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tzvetanov, G.

2009-01-01

A case of catastrophic hypokalemia-associated rhabdomyolysis in patient with ulcerative colitis (UC) is reported. A 60-year-old man presented with an exacerbation of UC and hypokalemia due to long-term diarrhea. While in the hospital, rhabdomyolysis developed in association with worsening hypokalemia. The hypokalemia was refractory to treatment and progressive course. Patient developed painful cramps of the masticatory and facial musculature associated with a moderated weakness in distal muscle groups. The weakness extended to intercostals and diaphragm muscles and led to respiratory deficiency. Serum concentration of creatine kinase was highly increased. Patient died from advancing and insurmountable cardiovascular deficiency. The causative role of hypokalemia for muscle involvement and rhabdomyolysis in patients with inflammatory bowel diseases was discussed. (author)

Global regime shift dynamics of catastrophic sea urchin overgrazing

Science.gov (United States)

Ling, S. D.; Scheibling, R. E.; Rassweiler, A.; Johnson, C. R.; Shears, N.; Connell, S. D.; Salomon, A. K.; Norderhaug, K. M.; Pérez-Matus, A.; Hernández, J. C.; Clemente, S.; Blamey, L. K.; Hereu, B.; Ballesteros, E.; Sala, E.; Garrabou, J.; Cebrian, E.; Zabala, M.; Fujita, D.; Johnson, L. E.

2015-01-01

A pronounced, widespread and persistent regime shift among marine ecosystems is observable on temperate rocky reefs as a result of sea urchin overgrazing. Here, we empirically define regime-shift dynamics for this grazing system which transitions between productive macroalgal beds and impoverished urchin barrens. Catastrophic in nature, urchin overgrazing in a well-studied Australian system demonstrates a discontinuous regime shift, which is of particular management concern as recovery of desirable macroalgal beds requires reducing grazers to well below the initial threshold of overgrazing. Generality of this regime-shift dynamic is explored across 13 rocky reef systems (spanning 11 different regions from both hemispheres) by compiling available survey data (totalling 10 901 quadrats surveyed in situ) plus experimental regime-shift responses (observed during a total of 57 in situ manipulations). The emergent and globally coherent pattern shows urchin grazing to cause a discontinuous ‘catastrophic’ regime shift, with hysteresis effect of approximately one order of magnitude in urchin biomass between critical thresholds of overgrazing and recovery. Different life-history traits appear to create asymmetry in the pace of overgrazing versus recovery. Once shifted, strong feedback mechanisms provide resilience for each alternative state thus defining the catastrophic nature of this regime shift. Importantly, human-derived stressors can act to erode resilience of desirable macroalgal beds while strengthening resilience of urchin barrens, thus exacerbating the risk, spatial extent and irreversibility of an unwanted regime shift for marine ecosystems.

Dynamic growth of slip surfaces in catastrophic landslides.

Science.gov (United States)

Germanovich, Leonid N; Kim, Sihyun; Puzrin, Alexander M

2016-01-01

This work considers a landslide caused by the shear band that emerges along the potential slip (rupture) surface. The material above the band slides downwards, causing the band to grow along the slope. This growth may first be stable (progressive), but eventually becomes dynamic (catastrophic). The landslide body acquires a finite velocity before it separates from the substrata. The corresponding initial-boundary value problem for a dynamic shear band is formulated within the framework of Palmer & Rice's ( Proc. R. Soc. Lond. A 332 , 527-548. (doi:10.1098/rspa.1973.0040)) approach, which is generalized to the dynamic case. We obtain the exact, closed-form solution for the band velocity and slip rate. This solution assesses when the slope fails owing to a limiting condition near the propagating tip of the shear band. Our results are applicable to both submarine and subaerial landslides of this type. It appears that neglecting dynamic (inertia) effects can lead to a significant underestimation of the slide size, and that the volumes of catastrophic slides can exceed the volumes of progressive slides by nearly a factor of 2. As examples, we consider the Gaviota and Humboldt slides offshore of California, and discuss landslides in normally consolidated sediments and sensitive clays. In particular, it is conceivable that Humboldt slide is unfinished and may still displace a large volume of sediments, which could generate a considerable tsunami. We show that in the case of submarine slides, the effect of water resistance on the shear band dynamics may frequently be limited during the slope failure stage. For a varying slope angle, we formulate a condition of slide cessation.

Metal Dusting: Catastrophic Corrosion by Carbon

Science.gov (United States)

Young, David J.; Zhang, Jianqiang

2012-12-01

Reducing gases rich in carbon-bearing species such as CO can be supersaturated with respect to graphite at intermediate temperatures of about 400-700°C. Engineering alloys such as low-alloy and stainless steels, and heat-resisting iron-, nickel-, and cobalt-base alloys catalyze gas processes that release the carbon. An understanding of how the resulting carbon deposition can destroy alloys at a catastrophically rapid rate has been the objective of a great deal of research. The current review of recent work on metal dusting covers the mass transfer—principally carbon diffusion—and graphite nucleation processes involved. A clear distinction emerges between ferritic alloys, which form cementite and precipitate graphite within that carbide, and austenitics that nucleate graphite directly within the metal. The latter process is facilitated by the strong orientation relationship between the graphite and face-centered cubic (fcc) lattices. Strategies for the control of dusting are briefly outlined.

Spiral arms, comets and terrestrial catastrophism

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Clube, S.V.M.; Napier, W.M.

1982-01-01

A review is presented of an hypothesis of terrestrial catastrophism in which comets grow in molecular clouds and are captured by the Sun as it passes through the spiral arms of the Galaxy. Assuming that comets are a major supplier of the Earth-crossing (Appollo) asteroid population, the latter fluctuates correspondingly and leads to episodes of terrestrial bombardment. Changes in the rotational momentum of core and mantle, generated by impacts, lead to episodes of magnetic field reversal and tectonic activity, while surface phenomena lead to ice-ages and mass extinctions. An episodic geophysical history with an interstellar connection is thus implied. If comets in spiral arms are necessary intermediaries in the process of star formation, the theory also has implications relating to early solar system history and galactic chemistry. These aspects are briefly discussed with special reference to the nature of spiral arms. (author)

Nuclear power and no end

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Schedl, O.

1980-01-01

The nearly-catastrophe of Harrisburg caused the discussion about nuclear energy to flare up again. Never before had the struggle between the parties been so embittered, the Lower Saxonian Minister President Albrecht told when he was declining the Gorleben waste management project. The case of Gorleben shows very clearly that the public is not sufficiently informed of the necessity and the dangers. Otto Schedl, Minister of Economy and Finance of the State of Bavaria, participates in the debate with this book. Despite all objections and without making the risks seem unimportant he comes to the result that we cannot do without atomic energy if we want to guarantee our economical wealth. (orig./RW) [de

Changes in Depression, Health Anxiety, and Pain Catastrophizing Between Enrollment and 1 Month After a Radius Fracture.

Science.gov (United States)

Golkari, Sina; Teunis, Teun; Ring, David; Vranceanu, Ana-Maria

2015-01-01

To test the difference in symptoms of (1) depression, (2) health anxiety, and (3) catastrophic thinking between 1 and 6 weeks after injury to the radius. In total, 69 adult patients with a minimally displaced radial head or distal radius fracture were prospectively enrolled. After diagnosis, we recorded demographic variables, 11-point ordinal numerical pain score, and agreement with "no pain, no gain"; Disabilities of the Arms, Shoulder, and Hand (DASH) questionnaire; Center for Epidemiologic Studies Depression Scale; the Whiteley Index; and the Pain Catastrophizing Scale. In total, 55 patients (80%) returned after 1 month to reevaluate pain, Disabilities of the Arms, Shoulder, and Hand, Center for Epidemiologic Studies Depression, Whiteley Index, and Pain Catastrophizing Scale scores. Center for Epidemiologic Studies Depression scores decreased by an average of 5 ± 9 points (p psychologic measures are used as a screening tool to predict outcome after treatment, one should account for a patient's disease phase. Prognostic level I. Copyright © 2015 The Academy of Psychosomatic Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Nuclear terrorism and legal protection of environment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ahmad-zada, Z.; Aliev, D.

2003-01-01

Full text: For the last years the terrorism has significantly changed. If 20-30 years ago terrorists would kidnap famous politicians or hijack planes, but at this stage they switched to massive destruction of innocent people. Now the problem of struggle against nuclear terrorism becomes very actual problem. The nuclear terrorism is meant as an opportunity of accomplishment of act of terrorism with use of the nuclear weapon, or accomplishment of explosions on atomic power stations and other objects of an atomic energy. Threats to nuclear objects become more and more often and appreciable. In the world there were some similar cases of threat to nuclear objects from the part of terrorists, and also cases of use by terrorists of nuclear, chemical and bacteriological substances. These cases testify to real threat of use by terrorists of the weapon of mass destruction. It is natural, that accomplishment of acts of terrorism on these objects can lead to ecological catastrophe and can put an irreparable loss to an environment and process of social development. Up to the middle of sixtieth years of twentieth century protection of an environment was not put forward as an independent political problem, and its scientific substantiation has not been developed enough as a diversified, complex, global problem. Only dynamical development in seventieth - eightieth years of scientific bases of global problems has allowed to allocate the rules of law concerning to protection of an environment, into special group. International legal protection of ecology was precisely allocated now in system of the general international law as independent, specific sphere of regulation. The principle of inadmissibility of radioactive pollution of environment covers both military, and peace area of use of nuclear power. Formation and the statement of this special principle of International law of the Environment takes place in two ways - contractual and usual, with observance by the states of

Technological catastrophes and public reactions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Osmachkin, V.

2000-01-01

The mankind energy demands are expected to be in 2050 more than twice of present level. But a World Conference on Environment in Kyoto is expressed the concern about the releases of greenhouses gases which could cause the climate changes. Accordingly the contamination of the atmosphere by the greenhouse gases is becoming of an urgent problem of our civilisation. Obviously a nuclear energy is assumed to be a main aid of solving such energy problem. But everybody knows the society is in a conflict situation- there is a powerful movement of 'green' forces against the nuclear power. Some people are trying firmly to stop or even to ban the development of the nuclear power in some countries. An analysis of the ground causes of such social phenomenon as anti-nuclear movement can assist us in its management and future actions for development of nuclear power. It is possible to distinguish economical, social, scientific roots of nuclear opposition. Role of mass media in development of the public anti-nuclear mood is very important. Nobody doubts that a public acceptance is a key point for future nuclear energy. Recent anti-nuclear problems can be solved by calm confident interaction with public, by careful substitution of old troublesome image of the nuclear power on view of modem controllable technology with high level of safety and protection of environment. In such actions very important to convince of public that the such modem requirements of the nuclear safety as - no large radioactive release, no emergency evacuation, no permanent relocation of population, no restrictions on food consumption- are implemented in the correspondent design decisions based on defence-in-depth concept. And everybody have to know that in the case of any operational incident all consequences of disturbances will be mitigated and real risks will be scornful small. Problem of the plants decommissioning is a very serious. But it has to be solved on the base of optimisation of money expenses and

Terrestrial catastrophe caused by cometary impact at the end of Cretaceous

Science.gov (United States)

Hsü, Kenneth J.

1980-05-01

Evidence is presented indicating that the extinction, at the end of the Cretaceous, of large terrestrial animals was caused by atmospheric heating during a cometary impact and that the extinction of calcareous marine plankton was a consequence of poisoning by cyanide released by the fallen comet and of a catastrophic rise in calcite-compensation depth in the oceans after the detoxification of the cyanide.

Nuclear Renaissance in an Era of Anthropogenic Climate Change

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bird, John

2008-01-01

This paper substantiates the anthropogenic origin of climate change, demonstrates the resulting consequences, and thereby establishes the need for a nuclear renaissance over the next thirty years. First, the mechanisms behind the natural cycles in global warming, specifically, cycles of precession and eccentricity in Earth's orbit, as measured in ice cores, are compared to the mechanisms of anthropogenic warming, revealing the scientific basis for the observed correlation between carbon dioxide and temperature. Second, the resulting climate change is exemplified by key results from experiments performed by the author in the Arctic and at the South Geographic Pole, and the author's experience of Switzerland's costliest natural catastrophe - the flash flood of 2005. Third, although facing barriers such as research and development requirements, political will and public acceptance, the potential for nuclear power to triple to 1,000 GWe by 2050 would mitigate climate change by holding carbon dioxide concentration below 500 ppm, thereby challenging the younger nuclear generation to contribute to the most important issue facing humanity. (authors)

Risks perception and the public acceptance of nuclear technology

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ferreira, Walter Mendes; Gavazza, Sergio; Estrada, Julio J.S.

2000-01-01

This work establishes a methodology to evaluate the public acceptance of nuclear technology taking into consideration several risk concepts. Basic concepts of the nuclear science were transmitted, in form of lectures and courses, to the 13,439 Goiania residents, after the closing of the decontamination works, caused by the violation of the source of 137 Cs, of a teletherapy machine, in 1987. The results of the indicators shown that public's individuals perceive radiation risks and develop behaviors according to a constructive outline. The public does not know technical terms, being quite influenced by media, from where gets information of interest. The public orders the risks, relating them to accidents according to subjective criteria and models them as unknown, new and not observed at short period, establishing destruction, environmental catastrophe and diseases images. (author)

Positioning Nuclear Power in the Low-Carbon Electricity Transition

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Aviel Verbruggen

2017-01-01

Full Text Available Addressing climate change requires de-carbonizing future energy supplies in an increasingly energy-dependent world. The IEA and the IPCC (2014 mention the following as low-carbon energy supply options: ‘renewable energy, nuclear power and fossil fuels with carbon capture and storage’. Positioning nuclear power in the decarbonization transition is a problematic issue and is overridden by ill-conceived axioms. Before probing these axioms, we provide an overview of five major, postwar energy-related legacies and some insight into who is engaged in nuclear activities. We check whether low-carbon nuclear power passes the full sustainability test and whether it is compatible with the unfettered deployment of variable renewable power sourced from the sun and from wind and water currents, which delivers two negative answers. We show that the best approach of the sustainable energy transition was Germany’s 2011 decision to phase out nuclear power for a fast development and full deployment of renewable power. This is the best approach for the sustainable energy transition. We offer five practical suggestions to strengthen and accelerate carbon- and nuclear-free transitions. They are related to institutional issues like the role of cost-benefit analysis and the mission of the International Atomic Energy Agency, to the costs of nuclear risks and catastrophes, and to the historical record of nuclear technology and business.

Task Force on Catastrophic Antiphospholipid Syndrome (APS) and Non-criteria APS Manifestations (II): thrombocytopenia and skin manifestations.

Science.gov (United States)

Cervera, R; Tektonidou, M G; Espinosa, G; Cabral, A R; González, E B; Erkan, D; Vadya, S; Adrogué, H E; Solomon, M; Zandman-Goddard, G; Shoenfeld, Y

2011-02-01

The objectives of the 'Task Force on Catastrophic Antiphospholipid Syndrome (APS) and Non-criteria APS Manifestations' were to assess the clinical utility of the international consensus statement on classification criteria and treatment guidelines for the catastrophic APS, to identify and grade the studies that analyze the relationship between the antiphospholipid antibodies and the non-criteria APS manifestations, and to present the current evidence regarding the accuracy of these non-criteria APS manifestations for the detection of patients with APS. This article summarizes the studies analyzed on thrombocytopenia and skin manifestations, and presents the recommendations elaborated by the Task Force after this analysis.

Effectiveness of the psychological and pharmacological treatment of catastrophization in patients with fibromyalgia: a randomized controlled trial

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Magallón Rosa

2009-04-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Fibromyalgia is a prevalent and disabling disorder characterized by widespread pain and other symptoms such as insomnia, fatigue or depression. Catastrophization is considered a key clinical symptom in fibromyalgia; however, there are no studies on the pharmacological or psychological treatment of catastrophizing. The general aim of this study is to assess the effectiveness of cognitive-behaviour therapy and recommended pharmacological treatment for fibromyalgia (pregabalin, with duloxetine added where there is a comorbid depression, compared with usual treatment at primary care level. Method/design Design: A multi-centre, randomized controlled trial involving three groups: the control group, consisting of usual treatment at primary care level, and two intervention groups, one consisting of cognitive-behaviour therapy, and the other consisting of the recommended pharmacological treatment for fibromyalgia. Setting: 29 primary care health centres in the city of Zaragoza, Spain. Sample: 180 patients, aged 18–65 years, able to understand and read Spanish, who fulfil criteria for primary fibromyalgia, with no previous psychological treatment, and no pharmacological treatment or their acceptance to discontinue it two weeks before the onset of the study. Intervention: Psychological treatment is based on the manualized protocol developed by Prof. Escobar et al, from the University of New Jersey, for the treatment of somatoform disorders, which has been adapted by our group for the treatment of fibromyalgia. It includes 10 weekly sessions of cognitive-behaviour therapy. Pharmacological therapy consists of the recommended pharmacological treatment for fibromyalgia: pregabalin (300–600 mg/day, with duloxetine (60–120 mg/day added where there is a comorbid depression. Measurements: The following socio-demographic data will be collected: sex, age, marital status, education, occupation and social class. The diagnosis of psychiatric

Nuclear energy, a French neurosis - After Fukushima, when is the end?; Le nucleaire, une nevrose francaise - Apres Fukushima, a quand la sortie?

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Piro, Patrick

2012-02-09

With 58 reactors in operation, France is at 75% a nuclear-dependent country for power generation. For forty years no calling into question of this policy has been possible. The Fukushima catastrophe of March 11, 2011 has changed the deal. Several countries, like Germany, Switzerland, Belgium and Italy have taken the decision to get out of nuclear energy. In France, the taboo question of its abandonment has moved to the front of the scene. Some political parties have proposed a significant reduction of the nuclear share in the energy mix while some 'zero nuclear' scenarios are already on the table. (J.S.)

Near-Death and Other Transpersonal Experiences Occurring During Catastrophic Events.

Science.gov (United States)

Lawrence, Madelaine

2017-06-01

The purpose of this article is to describe examples of near-death and other transpersonal experiences occurring during catastrophic events like floods, wars, bombings, and death camps. To date, researchers have limited their investigations of these transpersonal events to those occurring to seriously ill patients in hospitals, those dying from terminal illnesses, or to individuals experiencing a period of grief after the death of a loved one. Missing is awareness by first responders and emergency healthcare professionals about these transpersonal experiences and what to say to the individuals who have them. Some responders experience not only deaths of the victims they assist, but also deaths of their colleagues. Information about these transpersonal experiences can also be of comfort to them. The examples in this article include a near-death experience during the Vietnam War, an out-of-body experience after a bomb explosion during the Iraq War, a near-death visit to a woman imprisoned at Auschwitz, and two after-death communications, one from a person killed in Auschwitz and another from a soldier during World War I. Also included are interviews with two New York City policemen who were September 11, 2001 responders. It is hoped the information will provide knowledge of these experiences to those who care for those near death, or dying, or grieving because of catastrophic events, and encourage researchers to further investigate these experiences during disasters.

Snow Catastrophe Conditions: What is its Impact on Orthopedic Injuries?

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mohsen Mardani-Kivi

2014-06-01

Full Text Available Background:   Iran places sixth amongst high risk natural disaster countries and Guilan province of Iran shoulders a large amount of socio-economic burden due to snow catastrophes. The more knowledge of circumstances we have, the more efficient our future encounters will be. Methods: In this retrospective study, of all of the patients admitted to Poursina Hospital due to snow and ice related trauma in the first two weeks of February 2014, 306 cases were found eligible for entry into the present study. Results: Of the 306 eligible patients (383 injuries, there were 175 men (57.2% and 131 women (42.8%. Most patients suffered from orthopedic injuries (81% and the most common fractures were distal radius fractures in the upper extremities and hip fractures in the lower extremities. Slipping was the most common and motor vehicle accidents had the rarest injury mechanisms. It was shown that the frequency of injuries were higher on icy days (67.6% than snowy days (32.4%. Conclusions: Snow crises may lead to increased risk of slipping and falling situations, especially on icy days. The peak of injury rates is a few days after snowfall with the most common injury being distal radius fracture. Providing essential instructions and supporting resource allocation to better handle such catastrophes may improve outcomes.

Catastrophe Insurance Modeled by Shot-Noise Processes

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Thorsten Schmidt

2014-02-01

Full Text Available Shot-noise processes generalize compound Poisson processes in the following way: a jump (the shot is followed by a decline (noise. This constitutes a useful model for insurance claims in many circumstances; claims due to natural disasters or self-exciting processes exhibit similar features. We give a general account of shot-noise processes with time-inhomogeneous drivers inspired by recent results in credit risk. Moreover, we derive a number of useful results for modeling and pricing with shot-noise processes. Besides this, we obtain some highly tractable examples and constitute a useful modeling tool for dynamic claims processes. The results can in particular be used for pricing Catastrophe Bonds (CAT bonds, a traded risk-linked security. Additionally, current results regarding the estimation of shot-noise processes are reviewed.

Pain Sensitivity and Pain Catastrophizing are Associated with Persistent Pain and Disability after Lumbar Spine Surgery

Science.gov (United States)

Coronado, Rogelio A.; George, Steven Z.; Devin, Clinton J.; Wegener, Stephen T.; Archer, Kristin R.

2015-01-01

Objective To examine whether pain sensitivity and pain catastrophizing are associated with persistent pain and disability after lumbar spine surgery. Design Prospective observational cohort study. Setting Academic medical center. Participants Patients (N = 68, mean ± SD age = 57.9 ± 13.1 years, N female = 40 (58.8%)) undergoing spine surgery for a degenerative condition from March 1, 2012 to April 30, 2013 were assessed 6 weeks, 3 months, and 6 months after surgery. Interventions Not applicable. Main Outcome Measure(s) The main outcome measures were persistent back pain intensity, pain interference, and disability. Patients with persistent back pain intensity, pain interference, or disability were identified as those patients reporting Brief Pain Inventory scores ≥ 4 and Oswestry Disability Index scores ≥ 21 at all postoperative time points. Results From 6 weeks to 6 months after surgery, approximately 12.9%, 24.2%, and 46.8% of patients reported persistent back pain intensity, pain interference, or disability, respectively. Increased pain sensitivity at 6 weeks was associated with having persistent back pain intensity (OR = 2.0, 95% CI = 1.0; 4.1) after surgery. Increased pain catastrophizing at 6 weeks was associated with having persistent back pain intensity (OR = 1.1, 95% CI = 1.0; 1.2), pain interference (OR = 1.1, 95% CI = 1.0; 1.2), and disability (OR = 1.3, 95% CI = 1.1; 1.4). An interaction effect was not found between pain sensitivity and pain catastrophizing on persistent outcomes (p > 0.05). Conclusion(s) Findings suggest the importance of early postoperative screening for pain sensitivity and pain catastrophizing in order to identify patients at-risk for poor postoperative pain intensity, interference, and/or disability outcomes. Future research should consider the benefit of targeted therapeutic strategies for patients with these postoperative prognostic factors. PMID:26101845

Catastrophic Misinterpretations as a Predictor of Symptom Change during Treatment for Panic Disorder

Science.gov (United States)

Teachman, Bethany A.; Marker, Craig D.; Clerkin, Elise M.

2010-01-01

Objective: Cognitive models of panic disorder suggest that change in catastrophic misinterpretations of bodily sensations will predict symptom reduction. To examine change processes, we used a repeated measures design to evaluate whether the trajectory of change in misinterpretations over the course of 12-week cognitive behavior therapy is related…

Diversification through Catastrophe Bonds: Lessons from the Subprime Financial Crisis

OpenAIRE

Peter Carayannopoulos; M Fabricio Perez

2015-01-01

Are catastrophe bonds (CAT bonds) zero-beta investments? Are they a valuable new source of diversification for investors? We study these questions by analysing the dynamic relations of CAT bond returns and the returns of the stock, corporate bond and government bond markets. Our multivariate GARCH model results provide evidence that CAT bonds are zero-beta assets only in non-crisis periods. We document that CAT bonds were not immune to the effects of the recent financial crisis. With the coll...

Quasi-Static Evolution, Catastrophe, and Failed Eruption of Solar Flux Ropes

Science.gov (United States)

2016-12-30

Ropes James Chen Beam Physics Branch Plasma Physics Division December 30, 2016 Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited. i REPORT...pressure gradient force combine to balance the major radial hoop force. The macroscopic forces on the flux ropes and onset conditions are quantified...Solar physics theory 67-4989-07 Quasi-Static Evolution, Catastrophe, and “Failed” Eruption of Solar Flux Ropes James Chen1 Plasma Physics Division

Mitotic catastrophe occurs in the absence of apoptosis in p53-null cells with a defective G1 checkpoint.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Michalis Fragkos

Full Text Available Cell death occurring during mitosis, or mitotic catastrophe, often takes place in conjunction with apoptosis, but the conditions in which mitotic catastrophe may exhibit features of programmed cell death are still unclear. In the work presented here, we studied mitotic cell death by making use of a UV-inactivated parvovirus (adeno-associated virus; AAV that has been shown to induce a DNA damage response and subsequent death of p53-defective cells in mitosis, without affecting the integrity of the host genome. Osteosarcoma cells (U2OSp53DD that are deficient in p53 and lack the G1 cell cycle checkpoint respond to AAV infection through a transient G2 arrest. We found that the infected U2OSp53DD cells died through mitotic catastrophe with no signs of chromosome condensation or DNA fragmentation. Moreover, cell death was independent of caspases, apoptosis-inducing factor (AIF, autophagy and necroptosis. These findings were confirmed by time-lapse microscopy of cellular morphology following AAV infection. The assays used readily revealed apoptosis in other cell types when it was indeed occurring. Taken together the results indicate that in the absence of the G1 checkpoint, mitotic catastrophe occurs in these p53-null cells predominantly as a result of mechanical disruption induced by centrosome overduplication, and not as a consequence of a suicide signal.

Catastrophic misinterpretations as a predictor of symptom change during treatment for panic disorder.

Science.gov (United States)

Teachman, Bethany A; Marker, Craig D; Clerkin, Elise M

2010-12-01

Cognitive models of panic disorder suggest that change in catastrophic misinterpretations of bodily sensations will predict symptom reduction. To examine change processes, we used a repeated measures design to evaluate whether the trajectory of change in misinterpretations over the course of 12-week cognitive behavior therapy is related to the trajectory of change in a variety of panic-relevant outcomes. Participants had a primary diagnosis of panic disorder (N = 43; 70% female; mean age = 40.14 years). Race or ethnicity was reported as 91% Caucasian, 5% African American, 2.3% biracial, and 2.3% "other." Change in catastrophic misinterpretations (assessed with the Brief Body Sensations Interpretation Questionnaire; Clark et al., 1997) was used to predict a variety of treatment outcomes, including overall panic symptom severity (assessed with the Panic Disorder Severity Scale [PDSS]; Shear et al., 1997), panic attack frequency (assessed with the relevant PDSS item), panic-related distress/apprehension (assessed by a latent factor, including peak anxiety in response to a panic-relevant stressor-a straw breathing task), and avoidance (assessed by a latent factor, which included the Fear Questionnaire-Agoraphobic Avoidance subscale; Marks & Mathews, 1979). Bivariate latent difference score modeling indicated that, as expected, change in catastrophic misinterpretations predicted subsequent reductions in overall symptom severity, panic attack frequency, distress/apprehension, and avoidance behavior. However, change in the various symptom domains was not typically a significant predictor of later interpretation change (except for the distress/apprehension factor). These results provide considerable support for the cognitive model of panic and speak to the temporal sequence of change processes during therapy. (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved.

Observing a catastrophic thermokarst lake drainage in northern Alaska

Science.gov (United States)

Jones, Benjamin M.; Arp, Christopher D.

2015-01-01

The formation and drainage of thermokarst lakes have reshaped ice-rich permafrost lowlands in the Arctic throughout the Holocene. North of Teshekpuk Lake, on the Arctic Coastal Plain of northern Alaska, thermokarst lakes presently occupy 22.5% of the landscape, and drained thermokarst lake basins occupy 61.8%. Analysis of remotely sensed imagery indicates that nine lakes (>10 ha) have drained in the 1,750 km2 study area between 1955 and 2014. The most recent lake drainage was observed using in situ data loggers providing information on the duration and magnitude of the event, and a nearby weather station provided information on the environmental conditions preceding the lake drainage. Lake 195 (L195), an 80 ha thermokarst lake with an estimated water volume of ~872,000 m3, catastrophically drained on 05 July 2014. Abundant winter snowfall and heavy early summer precipitation resulted in elevated lake water levels that likely promoted bank overtopping, thermo-erosion along an ice-wedge network, and formation of a 9 m wide, 2 m deep, and 70 m long drainage gully. The lake emptied in 36 hours, with 75% of the water volume loss occurring in the first ten hours. The observed peak discharge of the resultant flood was 25 m3/s, which is similar to that in northern Alaska river basins whose areas are more than two orders of magnitude larger. Our findings support the catastrophic nature of sudden lake drainage events and the mechanistic hypotheses developed by J. Ross Mackay.

Mothers: The Unacknowledged Victims.

Science.gov (United States)

Patterson, G.R.

1980-01-01

Used coercion theory to investigate aversive mother- child interactions. Literature indicated younger children produced higher rates of aversive interactions with their mothers. Mothers' role satisfaction varied as a function of such rates. Observation data showed mothers of aggressive children encountered higher rates of aversive interactions…

The impact of anxiety and catastrophizing on interleukin-6 responses to acute painful stress

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Lazaridou A

2018-03-01

Full Text Available Asimina Lazaridou,1 Marc O Martel,1 Christine M Cahalan,1 Marise C Cornelius,1 Olivia Franceschelli,1 Claudia M Campbell,2 Jennifer A Haythornthwaite,2 Michael Smith,2 Joseph Riley,3 Robert R Edwards1 1Department of Anesthesiology, Harvard Medical School, Brigham & Women’s Hospital, Boston, MA, USA; 2Department of Psychiatry and Behavioral Sciences, School of Medicine, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD, USA; 3Department of Community Dentistry and Behavioral Science, College of Dentistry, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, USA Objective: To examine the influence of anxiety and pain-related catastrophizing on the time course of acute interleukin-6 (IL-6 responses to standardized noxious stimulation among patients with chronic pain.Methods: Data were collected from 48 participants in the following demographically matched groups: patients with chronic pain (n=36 and healthy controls (n=12. Participants underwent a series of Quantitative Sensory Testing (QST procedures assessing responses to mechanical and thermal stimuli during two separate visits, in a randomized order. One visit consisted of standard, moderately painful QST procedures, while the other visit involved nonpainful analogs to these testing procedures. Blood samples were taken at baseline, and then for up to 2 hours after QST in order to study the time course of IL-6 responses.Results: Results of multilevel analyses revealed that IL-6 responses increased across assessment time points in both visits (p<0.001. While patients with chronic pain and healthy controls did not differ in the magnitude of IL-6 responses, psychological factors influenced IL-6 trajectories only in the chronic pain group. Among patients, increases in catastrophizing over the course of the QST session were associated with elevated IL-6 responses only during the painful QST session (p<0.05. When controlling for anxiety, results indicated that the main multilevel model among patients remained significant

Children's selective attention to pain and avoidance behaviour: the role of child and parental catastrophizing about pain.

Science.gov (United States)

Vervoort, Tine; Trost, Zina; Van Ryckeghem, Dimitri M L

2013-10-01

The present study investigated selective attention to pain in children, its implications for child avoidance behaviour, and the moderating role of dimensions comprising child and parental catastrophizing about pain (ie, rumination, magnification, and helplessness). Participants were 59 children (31 boys) aged 10-16 years and one of their parents (41 mothers). Children performed a dot-probe task in which child facial pain displays of varying pain expressiveness were presented. Child avoidance behaviour was indexed by child pain tolerance during a cold-pressor task. Children and parents completed measures of child and parent pain catastrophizing, respectively. Findings indicated that both the nature of child selective attention to pain and the impact of selective attention upon child avoidance behaviour were differentially sensitive to specific dimensions of child and parental catastrophizing. Specifically, findings showed greater tendency to shift attention away from pain faces (i.e.,, attentional avoidance) among children reporting greater pain magnification. A similar pattern was observed in terms of parental characteristics, such that children increasingly shifted attention away from pain with increasing levels of parental rumination and helplessness. Furthermore, child attentional avoidance was associated with greater avoidance behaviour (i.e., lower pain tolerance) among children reporting high levels of pain magnification and those whose parents reported greater rumination about pain. The current findings corroborate catastrophizing as a multidimensional construct that may differentially impact outcomes and attest to the importance of assessing both child and parental characteristics in relation to child pain-related attention and avoidance behaviour. Further research directions are discussed. Copyright © 2013 International Association for the Study of Pain. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

New Developments Regarding the KT Event and Other Catastrophes in Earth History

Science.gov (United States)

1994-01-01

Papers presented at the conference on New Developments Regarding the KT Event and Other Catastrophes in Earth History are included. Topics covered include: trajectories of ballistic impact ejecta on a rotating earth; axial focusing of impact energy in the earth's interior: proof-of-principle tests of a new hypothesis; in search of Nemesis; impact, extinctions, volcanism, glaciations, and tectonics: matches and mismatches.

The relationship between pain catastrophizing, kinesiophobia and subjective knee function during rehabilitation following anterior cruciate ligament reconstruction and meniscectomy: A pilot study

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ana Tichonova

2016-01-01

Conclusions: Pain catastrophizing and kinesiophobia decreased during rehabilitation. A higher pain catastrophizing level correlated with a greater level of knee pain during activities, more difficulties experienced during daily activities before and after rehabilitation. A high level of kinesiophobia correlated with more difficulties experienced in daily activities and poorer knee-related quality of life before and after rehabilitation.

Cut-Off Points for Mild, Moderate, and Severe Pain on the Numeric Rating Scale for Pain in Patients with Chronic Musculoskeletal Pain: Variability and Influence of Sex and Catastrophizing.

Science.gov (United States)

Boonstra, Anne M; Stewart, Roy E; Köke, Albère J A; Oosterwijk, René F A; Swaan, Jeannette L; Schreurs, Karlein M G; Schiphorst Preuper, Henrica R

2016-01-01

Objectives: The 0-10 Numeric Rating Scale (NRS) is often used in pain management. The aims of our study were to determine the cut-off points for mild, moderate, and severe pain in terms of pain-related interference with functioning in patients with chronic musculoskeletal pain, to measure the variability of the optimal cut-off points, and to determine the influence of patients' catastrophizing and their sex on these cut-off points. Methods: 2854 patients were included. Pain was assessed by the NRS, functioning by the Pain Disability Index (PDI) and catastrophizing by the Pain Catastrophizing Scale (PCS). Cut-off point schemes were tested using ANOVAs with and without using the PSC scores or sex as co-variates and with the interaction between CP scheme and PCS score and sex, respectively. The variability of the optimal cut-off point schemes was quantified using bootstrapping procedure. Results and conclusion: The study showed that NRS scores ≤ 5 correspond to mild, scores of 6-7 to moderate and scores ≥8 to severe pain in terms of pain-related interference with functioning. Bootstrapping analysis identified this optimal NRS cut-off point scheme in 90% of the bootstrapping samples. The interpretation of the NRS is independent of sex, but seems to depend on catastrophizing. In patients with high catastrophizing tendency, the optimal cut-off point scheme equals that for the total study sample, but in patients with a low catastrophizing tendency, NRS scores ≤ 3 correspond to mild, scores of 4-6 to moderate and scores ≥7 to severe pain in terms of interference with functioning. In these optimal cut-off schemes, NRS scores of 4 and 5 correspond to moderate interference with functioning for patients with low catastrophizing tendency and to mild interference for patients with high catastrophizing tendency. Theoretically one would therefore expect that among the patients with NRS scores 4 and 5 there would be a higher average PDI score for those with low

Household catastrophic healthcare expenditure and impoverishment due to rotavirus gastroenteritis requiring hospitalization in Malaysia.

Science.gov (United States)

Loganathan, Tharani; Lee, Way-Seah; Lee, Kok-Foo; Jit, Mark; Ng, Chiu-Wan

2015-01-01

While healthcare costs for rotavirus gastroenteritis requiring hospitalization may be burdensome on households in Malaysia, exploration on the distribution and catastrophic impact of these expenses on households are lacking. We assessed the economic burden, levels and distribution of catastrophic healthcare expenditure, the poverty impact on households and inequities related to healthcare payments for acute gastroenteritis requiring hospitalization in Malaysia. A two-year prospective, hospital-based study was conducted from 2008 to 2010 in an urban (Kuala Lumpur) and rural (Kuala Terengganu) setting in Malaysia. All children under the age of 5 years admitted for acute gastroenteritis were included. Patients were screened for rotavirus and information on healthcare expenditure was obtained. Of the 658 stool samples collected at both centers, 248 (38%) were positive for rotavirus. Direct and indirect costs incurred were significantly higher in Kuala Lumpur compared with Kuala Terengganu (US$222 Vs. US$45; pMalaysia.

Conditioned pain modulation and situational pain catastrophizing as preoperative predictors of pain following chest wall surgery: a prospective observational cohort study.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Kasper Grosen

Full Text Available Variability in patients' postoperative pain experience and response to treatment challenges effective pain management. Variability in pain reflects individual differences in inhibitory pain modulation and psychological sensitivity, which in turn may be clinically relevant for the disposition to acquire pain. The aim of this study was to investigate the effects of conditioned pain modulation and situational pain catastrophizing on postoperative pain and pain persistency.Preoperatively, 42 healthy males undergoing funnel chest surgery completed the Spielberger's State-Trait Anxiety Inventory and Beck's Depression Inventory before undergoing a sequential conditioned pain modulation paradigm. Subsequently, the Pain Catastrophizing Scale was introduced and patients were instructed to reference the conditioning pain while answering. Ratings of movement-evoked pain and consumption of morphine equivalents were obtained during postoperative days 2-5. Pain was reevaluated at six months postoperatively.Patients reporting persistent pain at six months follow-up (n = 15 were not significantly different from pain-free patients (n = 16 concerning preoperative conditioned pain modulation response (Z = 1.0, P = 0.3 or level of catastrophizing (Z = 0.4, P = 1.0. In the acute postoperative phase, situational pain catastrophizing predicted movement-evoked pain, independently of anxiety and depression (β = 1.0, P = 0.007 whereas conditioned pain modulation predicted morphine consumption (β = -0.005, P = 0.001.Preoperative conditioned pain modulation and situational pain catastrophizing were not associated with the development of persistent postoperative pain following funnel chest repair. Secondary outcome analyses indicated that conditioned pain modulation predicted morphine consumption and situational pain catastrophizing predicted movement-evoked pain intensity in the acute postoperative phase. These findings may have

How To Respond to Catastrophic Events in Supply Chain Management

OpenAIRE

Choi, Sooyeon

2011-01-01

In March of 2011, a massive earthquake and tsunami struck into Japan. Soon after this event, Toyota in the UK announced that their production had to been halted caused by disruption on supply chain relationship with Japan. Like this, a catastrophic event disturbs not only domestic situation but also international business. Supply chain is one of the most affected areas and also capable to control on business at the same time when a disaster occurs. In this work, how to respond supply chain sy...

Nuclear energy prevents ecological disaster

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gelman, S.

1999-01-01

Full text: The booklet containing 6 pages brings forth 10 arguments and facts called upon to convince the reader that the nuclear energy is the main if not the only means to avoid catastrophic ecological consequences caused by the increasing non-usage of the organic fuel. By the middle of the 2lst century the triple growth of the worldwide energy consumption will inevitably cause a significant increase Of CO 2 , NO 2 , SO 2 emission and reduction of oxygen content in the Earth atmosphere if it is satisfied as before due to the combustion of coal, petrol and gas. Significant changes of the environment are turning out to be a serious threat to the existence of mankind. Such dispiriting fact and some other negative factors inherent in the so-called 'fire' energy oppose to the remarkable advantages already demonstrated by the nuclear energy supposed to become the energy of the 21st century. The text will contain the tables and color pictures to further the perception of the material set forth in the booklet. (author)

Modeling the Cloud to Enhance Capabilities for Crises and Catastrophe Management

Science.gov (United States)

2016-11-16

through support by a prior DOD grant, and in this project, we focused on how to effectively adapt this for the cloud catastrophe environment. The...the effects of varying cloud resources and the cloud architecture on L, o, and g values, we will be able to formulate realistic analytical models of...variation in computing and communication costs of test problems due to varying loads in the cloud environment. We used the parallel matrix multiplication

The Detained-Disappeared: Civilizational Catastrophe, the Collapse of Identity and Language*

OpenAIRE

Gatti, Gabriel

2013-01-01

This article proposes the concept of catastrophe as a starting point for the construction of appropriate representation strategies for phenomena of extreme social violence, exploring the case of the forced disappearance of individuals in Argentina and Uruguay. The analysis begins with a paradox: this process represents the culmination of policies for the construction and management of the population in post-colonial America, and is simultaneously applicable to the most completely formed produ...

Scientific-technical cooperation with foreign (esp. Europe and INSC partner countries) nuclear regulatory authorities and their technical support organizations in the fields of nuclear safety of operating nuclear power plants and on the concept evaluation of generation 3+ plants. Final report

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wolff, Holger

2016-09-01

The BMUB/BfS-Project 3614I01512 forms the frame of the GRS for the scientific-technical cooperation with Technical Support Organisations and Nuclear Regulatory Authorities in the field of nuclear safety in operating NPPs and for the concept evaluation of generation 3 + plants in Europe and INSC Partner Countries. In the present final project report results are described which were gained within the project duration 15.10.2014 up to the 30.09.2016 in the following working packages: Investigations following the catastrophe of Fukushima Daiichi, Evaluation of selected National Action Plans, DBA and severe accident analyses for NPP with PWR (WWER-440, WWER-1000), cooperation with INSC partner countries on DBA, BDBA and severe accident analyses for WWER plants of generation 3 + and building NRA and safety evaluation capacities and decommissioning of nuclear facilities and disposal of radioactive waste. The results are preceded by an outline on the activities related to the project management and to the planning of the bilateral work.

Ethical aspects of technogenic catastrophes sequences on the example of the Chernobyl accident

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mel'nov, S.B.; Sarana, Yu.V.

2009-01-01

It is examined such ethical aspects of technogenic catastrophes sequences on the example of Chernobyl disaster, as violation of individual right to get information about the environment condition, getting the liquidator status, maintenance of all ethical norms while holding of biomedical research on disaster victims, and forming of social-ecological stress. (authors)

Penetration of n-hexadecane and water into wood under conditions simulating catastrophic floods

Science.gov (United States)

Ganna Baglayeva; Wayne S. Seames; Charles R. Frihart; Jane O' Dell; Evguenii I. Kozliak

2017-01-01

To simulate fuel oil spills occurring during catastrophic floods, short-term absorption of two chemicals, n-hexadecane (representative of semivolatile organic compounds in fuel oil) and water, into southern yellow pine was gravimetrically monitored as a function of time at ambient conditions. Different scenarios were run on the basis of (1) the...

Long term panorama of the nuclear technology; Panorama a largo plazo de la tecnologia nuclear

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Velez, C. [Electricite de France, Comite Cientifico Asesor, 22-30 avenue de Wagram, 75382 Paris (France)

2009-07-01

The concern for the security of the hydrocarbons supply, essentials for the transport and every time more important in the electricity production, it is one of the rebirth causes of interest for the nuclear energy. On the other hand, it is the increase of the hydrocarbons price. In some countries, included Mexico, the price of gas is subject to strong seasonal fluctuations, aggravating by the congestion of the ducts. It is certain that great part of the prices rise of petroleum that we are experiencing is due to speculation, for what it is necessary to look for objective elements that allow to venture in the difficult topic of the future price of crude. One finishes reason of the resurgence of interest for the nuclear energy, is the growing perception that with the gases emission of greenhouse effect we are exposing our planet to an uncontrollable experiment with consequences potentially catastrophic. This perception is translated in a pressure of the public opinion for to use renewable energy sources that do not contribute to the greenhouse effect. In this work a general panorama is exposed on the advances that exist at the present time, like nuclear reactors with the purpose of solving the current problem that the world is crossing. (Author)

Safety consideration and economic advantage of a new underground nuclear power plant design

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lyczkowski, R.W.; Ching, J.T.

1979-01-01

A conceptual design of an underground nuclear power plant is proposed to make undergrounding of nuclear reactors not only environmentally desirable but also economically feasible. Expedient to the underground environment, this design capitalizes on the pressure-containing and radiation filtering characteristics of the new underground boundary conditions. Design emphasis is on the containment of a catastrophic accident - that of a reactor vessel rupture caused by external means. The High Capacity Rapid Energy Dissipation Underground Containment (HiC-REDUCE) system which efficiently contains loss-of-coolant accidents (LOCAs) and small break conditions is described. The end product is a radiation-release-proof plant which, in effect, divorces the public from the safety of the reactor. (Auth.)

Validity and Reliability of the Catastrophic Cognitions Questionnaire-Turkish Version

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ayse Kart

2016-01-01

Full Text Available Aim: Importance of catastrophic cognitions is well known for the development and maintance of panic disorder. Catastrophic Cognitions Questionnaire (CCQ measures thoughts associated with danger and was originally developed by Khawaja (1992. In this study, it is aimed to evaluate the validity and reliability of CCQ- Turkish version. Material and Method: CCQ was administered to 250 patients with panic disorder. Turkish version of CCQ was created by translation, back-translation and pilot assessment. Socio-demographic Data Form and CCQ Turkish version were administered to participants. Reliability of CCQ was analyzed by test-retest correlation, split-half technique, Cronbach%u2019s alpha coefficient. Construct validity was evaluated by factor analysis after the Kaiser-Meyer-Olkin (KMO and Bartlett test had been performed. Principal component analysis and varimax rotation were used for factor analysis. Results: Fifty-five point six percent (n=139 of the participants were female and fourty-four point four percent (n=111 were male. Internal consistency of the questionnaire was calculated 0.920 by Cronbach alpha. In analysis performed by split-half method reliability coefficients of half questionnaire were found as 0.917 and 0.832. Again spearmen-brown coefficient was found as 0.875 by the same analysis. Factor analysis revealed five basic factors. These five factors explained %66.2 of the total variance. Discussion: The results of this study show that the Turkish version of CCQ is a reliable and valid scale.

UK nuclear terrorism insurance arrangements: an overview

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tetley, M. G.

2004-01-01

The risk of terrorism in the UK is not new, but since the New York World Trade Centre attacks in 2001, the potential scale of any terrorist attack has required a considerable reassessment. With UK foreign policy closely aligned to that of the USA, the UK security services now consider it is simply a matter of when and no longer if the UK is attacked. For insurers of any type this fact would cause concern; for insurers involved in high profile and potentially catastrophic loss targets such as nuclear power plants, any attack could have a severe impact on solvency and shareholder's funds. This paper's objective is to describe the terrorism insurance arrangements put in place in the U.K. both before and after the September 2001 attacks. These arrangements have been designed both to safeguard insurers' solvency and to ensure that the nuclear industry and general public can continue to be reassured by the availability of insurance should an attack ever occur.(author)

Nuclear refugees after large radioactive releases

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pascucci-Cahen, Ludivine; Groell, Jérôme

2016-01-01

However improbable, large radioactive releases from a nuclear power plant would entail major consequences for the surrounding population. In Fukushima, 80,000 people had to evacuate the most contaminated areas around the NPP for a prolonged period of time. These people have been called “nuclear refugees”. The paper first argues that the number of nuclear refugees is a better measure of the severity of radiological consequences than the number of fatalities, although the latter is widely used to assess other catastrophic events such as earthquakes or tsunami. It is a valuable partial indicator in the context of comprehensive studies of overall consequences. Section 2 makes a clear distinction between long-term relocation and emergency evacuation and proposes a method to estimate the number of refugees. Section 3 examines the distribution of nuclear refugees with respect to weather and release site. The distribution is asymmetric and fat-tailed: unfavorable weather can lead to the contamination of large areas of land; large cities have in turn a higher probability of being contaminated. - Highlights: • Number of refugees is a good indicator of the severity of radiological consequences. • It is a better measure of the long-term consequences than the number of fatalities. • A representative meteorological sample should be sufficiently large. • The number of refugees highly depends on the release site in a country like France.

Comparison of two cash transfer strategies to prevent catastrophic costs for poor tuberculosis-affected households in low- and middle-income countries: An economic modelling study.

Science.gov (United States)

Rudgard, William E; Evans, Carlton A; Sweeney, Sedona; Wingfield, Tom; Lönnroth, Knut; Barreira, Draurio; Boccia, Delia

2017-11-01

Illness-related costs for patients with tuberculosis (TB) ≥20% of pre-illness annual household income predict adverse treatment outcomes and have been termed "catastrophic." Social protection initiatives, including cash transfers, are endorsed to help prevent catastrophic costs. With this aim, cash transfers may either be provided to defray TB-related costs of households with a confirmed TB diagnosis (termed a "TB-specific" approach); or to increase income of households with high TB risk to strengthen their economic resilience (termed a "TB-sensitive" approach). The impact of cash transfers provided with each of these approaches might vary. We undertook an economic modelling study from the patient perspective to compare the potential of these 2 cash transfer approaches to prevent catastrophic costs. Model inputs for 7 low- and middle-income countries (Brazil, Colombia, Ecuador, Ghana, Mexico, Tanzania, and Yemen) were retrieved by literature review and included countries' mean patient TB-related costs, mean household income, mean cash transfers, and estimated TB-specific and TB-sensitive target populations. Analyses were completed for drug-susceptible (DS) TB-related costs in all 7 out of 7 countries, and additionally for drug-resistant (DR) TB-related costs in 1 of the 7 countries with available data. All cost data were reported in 2013 international dollars ($). The target population for TB-specific cash transfers was poor households with a confirmed TB diagnosis, and for TB-sensitive cash transfers was poor households already targeted by countries' established poverty-reduction cash transfer programme. Cash transfers offered in countries, unrelated to TB, ranged from $217 to $1,091/year/household. Before cash transfers, DS TB-related costs were catastrophic in 6 out of 7 countries. If cash transfers were provided with a TB-specific approach, alone they would be insufficient to prevent DS TB catastrophic costs in 4 out of 6 countries, and when increased enough

Medical support to a disabled nuclear platform at sea

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Vishal Kansal

2016-01-01

Full Text Available Indian Navy has recently joined the select band of countries that are operating nuclear powered platforms. Despite the fact, that the present day nuclear technology is quite advanced and safe; accidents on board can still happen. An accident on board a Nuclear Platform at sea can result in ‘Radiation Exposure and Contamination’ to the crew members; which can prove catastrophic. Management of casualties on board a Nuclear platform at sea presents a formidable challenge. The distressed platform being at sea will also bring in many other operational variables like distance from shore, geographical location, weather conditions, availability of rescue assets and trained manpower etc. Consequently, there is a necessity to have a well defined ‘Medical Contingency Plan’ to deal with any such eventuality happening at sea. The successful execution of the contingency plan will depend upon close coordination among diverse authorities like local Service Hospital, Command Medical & Operational Authorities, Naval Dockyard, Radiation Safety Organisations and the Rescue/Hospital Ship crew. The need is to have a holistic review of our existing medical set up and integrate new equipment, training methodologies, operating procedures to have a credible response capability.

The cross-section of returns, benchmark model parameters, and idiosyncratic volatility of nuclear energy firms after Fukushima Daiichi

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lopatta, Kerstin; Kaspereit, Thomas

2014-01-01

This study analyzes how the stock market returns, the factor loadings from the Carhart (1997) 4-factor model, and the idiosyncratic volatility of shares in energy firms have been affected by the Fukushima nuclear accident. Unlike existing studies, which provide evidence of a wealth transfer from nuclear to renewable energy firms for specific countries, we use an international sample and investigate whether changes in the regulatory environment and the firm-specific commitment to nuclear and renewable energies correlate with the capital market's reactions to the Fukushima Daiichi accident. Our findings suggest that the more a firm relies on nuclear power, the more its share price declined after the accident. A commitment to renewable energies does not prevent declines in share prices but significantly helps to reduce the increase in market beta that is associated with this event. Nuclear energy firms domiciled in countries with a higher number of regulatory interventions that were triggered by the catastrophe have lower abnormal returns than those that are domiciled elsewhere. However, as a cross-sectional analysis reveals, a stronger commitment to nuclear power is the main driver for negative stock market returns. Furthermore, nuclear energy firms domiciled in countries with stronger regulatory shifts away from nuclear energy experience significant increases in market beta and the book-to-market equity factor loading according to the Carhart (1997) 4-factor model. We conclude that capital market participants are able to differentiate between the affectedness of firms with respect to their product portfolio. Energy firms could prevent increases in market beta due to catastrophes such as the Fukushima Daiichi accident by shifting some of their energy production from nuclear to renewable or other sources. - Highlights: • Abnormal stock returns of nuclear energy firms around Fukushima Daiichi depend on the mix of their energy portfolio. • Higher commitment to

Evaluation issues on real-time operating system in nuclear power plants

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kim, Y. M.; Jeong, C. H.; Koh, J. S. [Regulatory Research Div., Korea Inst. of Nuclear Safety (Korea, Republic of)

2006-07-01

In the recent few years, using the hard real-time operating system (RTOS) of safety-critical applications has gained increased acceptance in the nuclear safety system. Failure of this software could cause catastrophic consequences for human life. The digital I and C systems of nuclear power plants also have used hard RTOSs which are executing a required mission completely within its deadline. Because the nuclear power plants have to maintain a very high level of safety, the hard RTOS software should be reliable and safe. The RTOS used in safety-critical I and C systems is the base software used for the purpose of satisfying the real-time constraints, So, careful evaluation of its safety and functionality is very important, So far, the nuclear power plants of Korea have adopted commercial off-the-shelf (COTS) RTOS software. But, these days the RTOS embedded in safety grade PLC has been developed by KNICS project controlled by Ministry of Commerce, Industry and Energy of Korea. Whether COTS RTOS or newly developed RTOS, it must be evaluated its safety and reliability. (authors)

Evaluation issues on real-time operating system in nuclear power plants

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kim, Y. M.; Jeong, C. H.; Koh, J. S.

2006-01-01

In the recent few years, using the hard real-time operating system (RTOS) of safety-critical applications has gained increased acceptance in the nuclear safety system. Failure of this software could cause catastrophic consequences for human life. The digital I and C systems of nuclear power plants also have used hard RTOSs which are executing a required mission completely within its deadline. Because the nuclear power plants have to maintain a very high level of safety, the hard RTOS software should be reliable and safe. The RTOS used in safety-critical I and C systems is the base software used for the purpose of satisfying the real-time constraints, So, careful evaluation of its safety and functionality is very important, So far, the nuclear power plants of Korea have adopted commercial off-the-shelf (COTS) RTOS software. But, these days the RTOS embedded in safety grade PLC has been developed by KNICS project controlled by Ministry of Commerce, Industry and Energy of Korea. Whether COTS RTOS or newly developed RTOS, it must be evaluated its safety and reliability. (authors)

Carbon: change of climate, but no worldwide catastrophe

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Grassl, H; Kempe, S; Spitzy, A

1981-03-21

The combustion of nearly all available coal, petroleum and natural gas supplies in the next 150 years which has been formed over 600 million years of earth's history, has resulted in man starting the largest conceivable geochemical experiment, without knowing whether and how the hence increased CO/sub 2/ content of the atmosphere is going to alter the climate. Predictions of the time change of the climate and its influence on the food basis are very hard to make. The authors working at the International Carbon Centre at Hamburg within the framework of the SCOPE/UNEP program analyze various climate models and conclude that the changing climate with or without CO/sub 2/ will cause costs in industrial countries as well as catastrophes in the development countries.

Heckling the Catastrophe. On the Holocaust Literary Criticism

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Paweł Wolski

2015-01-01

Full Text Available The article discusses a special kind of narrative about the catastrophe, treated as a specific genre of writing: the theory of literature of the Holocaust. The article presents its two most significant (although not the only ones features: firstly, the conviction about its unusual character as compared to other genres/forms of writing, sometimes secretly described by such concepts as the uniqueness of the Holocaust (which metonymizes not only the event itself but also the narrations referring to it and, secondly, identifies all text-producing entities (narrator, author etc., simultaneously constituting the basic feature of the most important genre/modality of this kind of writing which is testimony. The article presents the examples of Polish and foreign scholars portraying this state of affairs.

Cognitive Impairments in Fibromyalgia Syndrome: Associations With Positive and Negative Affect, Alexithymia, Pain Catastrophizing and Self-Esteem.

Science.gov (United States)

Galvez-Sánchez, Carmen M; Reyes Del Paso, Gustavo A; Duschek, Stefan

2018-01-01

Fibromyalgia syndrome (FMS) is a chronic condition characterized by widespread pain accompanied by symptoms like depression, anxiety, sleep disturbance and fatigue. In addition, affected patients frequently report cognitive disruption such as forgetfulness, concentration difficulties or mental slowness. Though cognitive deficits in FMS have been confirmed in various studies, not much is known about the mechanisms involved in their origin. This study aimed to investigate the contribution of affect-related variables to cognitive impairments in FMS. For this purpose, 67 female FMS patients and 32 healthy control subjects completed a battery of cognitive tests measuring processing speed, attention, visuospatial and verbal memory, cognitive flexibility and planning abilities. In addition, participants completed self-report questionnaires pertaining to positive and negative affect, alexithymia, pain catastrophizing and self-esteem. Clinical characteristics including pain severity, symptoms of depression and anxiety, insomnia and fatigue were also assessed. FMS patients showed markedly poorer performance than healthy controls in all of the cognitive domains assessed, in addition to greater levels of depression, anxiety, negative affect, alexithymia and pain catastrophizing, and lower self-esteem and positive affect. In exploratory correlation analysis in the FMS sample, lower cognitive performance was associated with higher pain severity, depression, anxiety, negative affect, alexithymia and pain catastrophizing, as well as lower self-esteem and positive affect. However, in regression analyses, pain, self-esteem, alexithymia, and pain catastrophizing explained the largest portion of the variance in performance. While interference effects of clinical pain in cognition have been previously described, the present findings suggest that affective factors also substantially contribute to the genesis of cognitive impairments. They support the notion that affective disturbances

Catastrophizing, depression, and pain: correlation with and influence on quality of life and health - a study of chronic whiplash-associated disorders.

Science.gov (United States)

Börsbo, Björn; Peolsson, Michael; Gerdle, Björn

2008-07-01

The aims of this study were: (i) to classify subgroups according to the degree of pain intensity, depression, and catastrophizing, and investigate distribution in a group of patients with chronic whiplash-associated disorders; and (ii) to investigate how these subgroups were distributed and inter-related multivariately with respect to consequences such as health and quality of life outcome measures. Descriptive cross-sectional study. A total of 275 consecutive chronic pain patients with whiplash-associated disorders who were referred to a university hospital. The following data were obtained by means of self-report questionnaires: pain intensity in neck and shoulders, background history, Beck Depression Inventory, the catastrophizing scale of Coping Strategy Questionnaire, Life Satisfaction Checklist, the SF-36 Health Survey, and the EuroQol. Principal component analysis was used to recognize subgroups according to the degree of pain intensity, depression, and catastrophizing. These subgroups have specific characteristics according to perceived health and quality of life, and the degree of depression appears to be the most important influencing factor. From a clinical point of view, these findings indicate that it is important to assess patients for intensity of pain, depression, and catastrophizing when planning a rehabilitation programme. Such an evaluation will help individualize therapy and intervention techniques so as to optimize the efficiency of the programme.

Use mobile pumps and liquid chilling water units to provide chilled water for nuclear reactor during nuclear power plant accident

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zhang Guobin; Feng Jiaxuan

2012-01-01

From the nuclear accident in Japan Fuksuhima in March this year, despite a shut down of the reactor, the residue heat inside the reactor was not able to remove due to the failure of the cooling system and it finally caused the catastrophe. It was observed that when the failure of the cooling system after an earthquake of magnitude 9 and a tsunami of 28 meters height, the containment vessel for the reactor core was still able to maintain its integrity in the first 24 hours before the first explosion was happened. A backup emergency heat removal system for nuclear power plants using mo- bile pumps and liquid chilling units has been proposed 20 years ago by Cheung [Ref. 1]. Due to the fact that there are more than 400 nuclear power plants around the world and 10% of them are located in earthquake active zone, together with the aging of some of the power plants which were built more than 30 years ago, the risk of another nuclear accident becomes high. An emergency safety measure has to be designed in order to deal with the unforeseen scenario. This re- port re-visits the proposal again; to re-design to the suit the need and to integrate with the current situation of the nuclear industry. (authors)

Simulating the Langevin force by simple noise in nuclear one-body dynamics

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chomaz, Ph.; Colonna, M.; Burgio, G.F.; Toro, M. Di; Randrup, J.

1992-01-01

For the purpose of addressing catastrophic phenomena in nuclear dynamics, the possibility of simulating the stochastic part of the collision integral is explored in the Boltzmann-Langevin model by the numerical noise associated with the finite number of test particles in the ordinary BUU treatment. Considering idealized two-dimensional matter, for which it is practical to simulate the Boltzmann-Langevin equation directly, it is demonstrated that the number of test-particles per nucleon can be adjusted so that the corresponding BUU calculation yields a good reproduction of the spontaneous clusterization occurring inside the spinodal region. This approximate method may therefore provide a relatively easy way to introduce meaningful fluctuations in simulations of unstable nuclear dynamics. (author) 18 refs.; 3 figs

The Chernobyl accident, a catastrophe or an eye-opener?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Baarli, J.

1989-01-01

The Chernobyl accident is reviewed as to its cause, the way it was handled locally and the consequenses from released radioactivity. It is emphasized that the exposure from the released radioactivity, as to the effective dose equivalent and the committed dose equivalent is small and comparable with the dose equivalent from natural ionizing radiation near the accident, and only a few per cent of this value at more remote distances. It is concluded that the accident probably has been one of the greatest psychological catastrophes that we so far has experienced, but not so when referring to early deaths or radiation damage directly to individuals

Phase diagram of N = 2 superconformal field theories and bifurcation sets in catastrophe theory

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kei Ito.

1989-08-01

Phase diagrams of N=2 superconformal field theories are mapped out. It is shown that they coincide with bifurcation sets in catastrophe theory. The results are applied to the determination of renormalization group flows triggered by a combination of two or more relevant operators. (author). 13 refs, 2 figs

Medical emergency planning in case of severe nuclear power plant accidents

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ohlenschlaeger, L.

1980-01-01

This paper is an attempt to discuss a three-step-plan on medical emergency planning in case of severe accidents at nuclear power plants on the basis of own experiences in the regional area as well as on the basis of recommendations of the Federal Minister of the Interior. The medical considerations take account of the severity and extension of an accident whereby the current definitions used in nuclear engineering for accident situations are taken as basis. A comparison between obligatory and actual state is made on the possibilities of medical emergency planning, taking all capacities of staff, facilities, and equipment available in the Federal Republic of Germany into account. To assure a useful and quick utilization of the existing infra-structure as well as nation-wide uniform training of physicians and medical assistants in the field of medical emergency in case of a nuclear catastrophe, a federal law for health protection is regarded urgently necessary. (orig.) [de

Catastrophic shifts in ecosystems: spatial early warnings and management procedures (Inspired in the physics of phase transitions)

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Fort, H [Complex Systems Group, Instituto de Fisica, Facultad de Ciencias, Universidad de la Republica, Igua 4225, 11400 Montevideo (Uruguay); Mazzeo, N [Depto. de EcologIa, Facultad de Ciencias, Universidad de la Republica, Igua 4225, 11400 Montevideo (Uruguay); Scheffer, M; Nes, E van, E-mail: hugo@fisica.edu.u [Wageningen Agricultural University, Aquatic Ecology and Water Quality Management Group, PO Box 47, 6700 AA Wageningen (Netherlands)

2010-09-01

Ecosystems are complex systems which can respond to gradual changes of their conditions by a sudden shift to a contrasting regime or alternative stable state (ASS). Predicting such critical points before they are reached is extremely difficult and providing early warnings is fundamental to design management protocols for ecosystems. Here we study different spatial versions of popular ecological models which are known to exhibit ASS. The spatial heterogeneity is introduced by a local parameter varying from cell to cell in a regular lattice. Transport of biomass among cells occurs by simple diffusion. We investigate whether different quantities from statistical mechanics -like the variance, the two-point correlation function and the patchiness-may serve as early warnings of catastrophic phase transitions between the ASS. In particular, we find that the patch-size distribution follows a power law when the system is close to the catastrophic transition. We also provide links between spatial and temporal indicators and analyze how the interplay between diffusion and spatial heterogeneity may affect the earliness of each of the observables. Finally, we comment on similarities and differences between these catastrophic shifts and paradigmatic thermodynamic phase transitions like the liquid-vapor change of state for a fluid like water.

Catastrophic shifts in ecosystems: spatial early warnings and management procedures (Inspired in the physics of phase transitions)

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fort, H; Mazzeo, N; Scheffer, M; Nes, E van

2010-01-01

Ecosystems are complex systems which can respond to gradual changes of their conditions by a sudden shift to a contrasting regime or alternative stable state (ASS). Predicting such critical points before they are reached is extremely difficult and providing early warnings is fundamental to design management protocols for ecosystems. Here we study different spatial versions of popular ecological models which are known to exhibit ASS. The spatial heterogeneity is introduced by a local parameter varying from cell to cell in a regular lattice. Transport of biomass among cells occurs by simple diffusion. We investigate whether different quantities from statistical mechanics -like the variance, the two-point correlation function and the patchiness-may serve as early warnings of catastrophic phase transitions between the ASS. In particular, we find that the patch-size distribution follows a power law when the system is close to the catastrophic transition. We also provide links between spatial and temporal indicators and analyze how the interplay between diffusion and spatial heterogeneity may affect the earliness of each of the observables. Finally, we comment on similarities and differences between these catastrophic shifts and paradigmatic thermodynamic phase transitions like the liquid-vapor change of state for a fluid like water.

Topographic precursors and geological structures of deep-seated catastrophic landslides caused by Typhoon Talas

Science.gov (United States)

Chigira, Masahiro; Tsou, Ching-Ying; Matsushi, Yuki; Hiraishi, Narumi; Matsuzawa, Makoto

2013-11-01

Typhoon Talas crossed the Japanese Islands between 2 and 5 September 2011, causing more than 70 deep-seated catastrophic landslides in a Jurassic to Paleogene-lower Miocene accretion complex. Detailed examination of the topographic features of 10 large landslides before the event, recorded on 1-m DEMs based on airborne laser scanner surveys, showed that all landslides had small scarps near their future crowns prior to the slide, and one landslide had linear depressions along its future crown as precursor topographic features. These scarps and linear depressions were caused by gravitational slope deformation that preceded the catastrophic failure. Although the scarps may have been enlarged by degradation, their sizes relative to the whole slopes suggest that minimal slope deformation had occurred in the period immediately before the catastrophic failure. The scarp ratio, defined as the ratio of length of a scarp to that of the whole slope both measured along the slope line, ranged from 5% to 21%. Careful examination of aerial photographs from another four large landslides, for which no high-resolution DEMs were available, suggested that they also developed scarps at their heads beforehand. Twelve of the 14 landslides we surveyed in the field had sliding surfaces with wedge-shaped discontinuities that consisted of faults and bedding, suggesting that the buildup of pore pressure occurs readily on wedge-shaped discontinuities in a gravitationally deformed rock body. Most of the faults were undulatory and were probably thrust faults that formed during accretion. Other types of gravitational deformation were also active; e.g., flexural toppling and buckling were observed to have preceded one landslide.

Nuclear Renaissance in an Era of Anthropogenic Climate Change

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Bird, John [Bruce Power, Box 3000 B06, Tiverton, Ontario N0G 2T0 (Canada)

2008-07-01

This paper substantiates the anthropogenic origin of climate change, demonstrates the resulting consequences, and thereby establishes the need for a nuclear renaissance over the next thirty years. First, the mechanisms behind the natural cycles in global warming, specifically, cycles of precession and eccentricity in Earth's orbit, as measured in ice cores, are compared to the mechanisms of anthropogenic warming, revealing the scientific basis for the observed correlation between carbon dioxide and temperature. Second, the resulting climate change is exemplified by key results from experiments performed by the author in the Arctic and at the South Geographic Pole, and the author's experience of Switzerland's costliest natural catastrophe - the flash flood of 2005. Third, although facing barriers such as research and development requirements, political will and public acceptance, the potential for nuclear power to triple to 1,000 GWe by 2050 would mitigate climate change by holding carbon dioxide concentration below 500 ppm, thereby challenging the younger nuclear generation to contribute to the most important issue facing humanity. (authors)

Social Anxiety, Pain Catastrophizing and Return-To-Work Self-Efficacy in chronic pain: a cross-sectional study.

Science.gov (United States)

Thomtén, Johanna; Boersma, Katja; Flink, Ida; Tillfors, Maria

2016-04-01

Returning to work after periods of sick-leave due to chronic pain problems, involve a number of situations of interpersonal nature (e.g. meeting supervisors/insurance companies to adapt work setting to present functional level, receive help from colleagues, express pain, etc.). Since chronic pain has shown co-morbidity with social anxiety, it is of interest to investigate restraining factors in return to work among chronic pain sufferers from a social perspective. Catastrophizing is identified in both pain and social anxiety as a mechanism that might fuel a continuous bias in how situations are perceived (threat) and by hindering the development of functional behavior strategies. The presence of social anxiety in chronic pain patients might be seen as a stressor that limits the individuals' ability to effectively communicate pain-related needs to colleagues, and/or employers and therefore act as a hindering factor in return-to-work. Hence, the overall aim of this study was to examine the relationship between social anxiety, pain catastrophizing, and perceived ability to communicate pain-related needs to the work environment in a clinical pain population. The study employed a cross-sectional design and involved 247 individuals with chronic pain (82.3% women; M age =44 years). Measures included the Pain catastrophizing Scale, the Social Phobia Screening Questionnaire and the communication of pain-related needs-subscale of the Return-To-Work Self-efficacy Questionnaire. Analyzes were run to examine whether social anxiety moderated the relation between pain catastrophizing, and perceived ability to communicate pain-related needs while controlling for pain severity/interference and sick leave. Social anxiety and pain catastrophizing correlated positively with each other and negatively with perceived ability to communicate pain-related needs. No support was obtained for a moderating effect of social anxiety. However, social anxiety and pain interference were each

Consideration of Command and Control Performance during Accident Management Process at the Nuclear Power Plant

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Ahmed, Nisrene M. [Korea Advanced Institute of Science and Technology, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of); Kim, Sok Chul [Korea Institute of Nuclear Safety, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

2015-10-15

The accident at the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plants shifted the nuclear safety paradigm from risk management to on-site management capability during a severe accident. The kernel of on-site management capability during an accident at a nuclear power plant is situation awareness and agility of command and control. However, little consideration has been given to accident management. After the events of September 11, 2001 and the catastrophic Fukushima nuclear disaster, agility of command and control has emerged as a significant element for effective and efficient accident management, with many studies emphasizing accident management strategies, particularly man-machine interface, which is considered a key role in ensuring nuclear power plant safety during severe accident conditions. This paper proposes a conceptual model for evaluating command and control performance during the accident management process at a nuclear power plant. Communication and information processing while responding to an accident is one of the key issues needed to mitigate the accident. This model will give guidelines for accurate and fast communication response during accident conditions.

Modeling subjective well-being in individuals with chronic pain and a physical disability: the role of pain control and pain catastrophizing.

Science.gov (United States)

Furrer, Angela; Michel, Gisela; Terrill, Alexandra L; Jensen, Mark P; Müller, Rachel

2017-10-23

To investigate the associations between subjective well-being and pain intensity, pain interference, and depression in individuals with physical disabilities. We hypothesized that (1) pain control and (2) pain catastrophizing mediate the effects of subjective well-being on pain intensity, pain interference, and depression. Analyses of cross-sectional data from 96 individuals diagnosed with spinal cord injury, multiple sclerosis, neuromuscular disease, or post-polio syndrome, with average pain intensity of ≥4 (0-10) on at least half the days in the past month. Two models tested study hypotheses using structural equation. Both models showed acceptable model fit. Pain catastrophizing significantly mediated the effect of subjective well-being on pain intensity and pain interference, but not on depression. Pain control did not significantly mediate the effect of subjective well-being on pain intensity, pain interference, or depression. Path coefficients showed significant direct effects of subjective well-being on pain control (β = 0.39), pain catastrophizing (β = -0.61), pain interference (β = -0.48; -0.42), and depression (β = -0.75; -0.78). This study supports the potential of enhancing subjective well-being and lowering pain catastrophizing for reducing pain intensity, pain interference, and depressive symptoms in individuals with chronic pain and a physical disability. The findings indicate that true experiments to test for causal associations are warranted. Implications for rehabilitation The majority of individuals with physical disabilities report having persistent moderate-to-severe pain that may negatively limit daily activities and quality of life. The present cross-sectional study indicates that individuals who reported greater subjective well-being showed significantly lower pain intensity via the mediating effect of lower pain catastrophizing. Since sample size and respective power are low, these findings should be taken as first

Disaster Evacuation from Japan's 2011 Tsunami Disaster and the Fukushima Nuclear Accident

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hasegawa, Reiko

2013-01-01

The triple disaster that hit the Tohoku region of Japan on 11 March 2011 triggered a massive human displacement: more than 400,000 people evacuated their homes as a gigantic tsunami induced by a magnitude 9.0 earthquake engulfed the coastal areas, and the following nuclear accident in Fukushima released a large amount of radioactive materials into the atmosphere. This study analyses the disaster response, with a particular focus on evacuation of the population, and social consequences of this complex crisis, based on intensive fieldwork carried out one year after the catastrophe. It reveals that the responses of the Japanese authorities and population were significantly different between a natural disaster and an industrial (man-made) accident. Being prone to both earthquakes and tsunamis, Japan had been preparing itself against such risks for many years. A tsunami alert was immediately issued and the population knew how and where to evacuate. In contrast, the evacuation from the nuclear accident was organised in total chaos, as a severe accident or large-scale evacuation had never been envisaged -let alone exercised- before the disaster. The population was thus forced to flee with no information as to the gravity of the accident or radiation risk. In both cases, the risk perception prior to the catastrophe played a key role in determining the vulnerability of the population at the time of the crisis. While tsunami evacuees are struggling with a slow reconstruction process due to financial difficulties, nuclear evacuees are suffering from uncertainty as to their prospect of return. One year after the accident, the Japanese authorities began to encourage nuclear evacuees to return to the areas contaminated by radiation according to a newly established safety standard. This triggered a vivid controversy within the affected communities, creating a rift between those who trust the government's notion of safety and those who do not. The nuclear disaster has thus

Quality of life in major depressive disorder: the role of pain and pain catastrophizing cognition.

Science.gov (United States)

Chung, Ka-Fai; Tso, Kwok-Chu; Yeung, Wing-Fai; Li, Wei-Hui

2012-05-01

Pain symptoms are frequent complaints in patients with major depressive disorder (MDD). Although it is known that pain intensity and pain-related cognition predict quality of life (QOL) in patients with chronic pain, limited studies have examined their roles in MDD. The study aimed to determine whether pain and pain catastrophizing were independent predictors of QOL in MDD after accounting for the impact of anxiety and depression. This is a prospective, naturalistic follow-up study. Ninety-one Chinese patients were enrolled during an acute episode of MDD, 82 of them were reassessed 3 months later using the same assessment on pain, anxiety, depression, and QOL. Pain intensity was evaluated using a verbal rating scale and a visual analog scale. Quality of life was assessed using the 36-item Short Form Health Survey. Pain-related cognition was assessed at baseline with the Pain Catastrophizing Scale. There was significant improvement in pain, anxiety, depression, and QOL from baseline to 3-month follow-up. Hierarchical regression analyses showed that pain intensity was significantly associated with QOL at baseline and 3 months. Pain complaint was more important than anxiety and depressive symptoms in predicting changes in both physical and psychosocial domains of QOL. After controlling for the severity of pain, anxiety, and depression, Pain Catastrophizing Scale score was independently associated with QOL in MDD. The study supports the specific role of pain and pain-related cognition in predicting QOL in depressed patients. Further studies targeting pain-related cognition for improving the outcome of MDD are necessary. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Changing Weather Extremes Call for Early Warning of Potential for Catastrophic Fire

Science.gov (United States)

Boer, Matthias M.; Nolan, Rachael H.; Resco De Dios, Víctor; Clarke, Hamish; Price, Owen F.; Bradstock, Ross A.

2017-12-01

Changing frequencies of extreme weather events and shifting fire seasons call for enhanced capability to forecast where and when forested landscapes switch from a nonflammable (i.e., wet fuel) state to the highly flammable (i.e., dry fuel) state required for catastrophic forest fires. Current forest fire danger indices used in Europe, North America, and Australia rate potential fire behavior by combining numerical indices of fuel moisture content, potential rate of fire spread, and fire intensity. These numerical rating systems lack the physical basis required to reliably quantify forest flammability outside the environments of their development or under novel climate conditions. Here, we argue that exceedance of critical forest flammability thresholds is a prerequisite for major forest fires and therefore early warning systems should be based on a reliable prediction of fuel moisture content plus a regionally calibrated model of how forest fire activity responds to variation in fuel moisture content. We demonstrate the potential of this approach through a case study in Portugal. We use a physically based fuel moisture model with historical weather and fire records to identify critical fuel moisture thresholds for forest fire activity and then show that the catastrophic June 2017 forest fires in central Portugal erupted shortly after fuels in the region dried out to historically unprecedented levels.

On the governance of global and catastrophic risks

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Faber, Michael Havbro

2011-01-01

The focus of the present paper regards the identification and treatment of critical issues in the process of societal decision making concerning management of global and catastrophic risks. Taking basis in recent works by the author, the paper in particular addresses: 1) Which are the most relevant...... hazards in a holistic global perspective and how may these be categorised in view of strategies for their treatment?; 2) How might robust societal decisions on risk management subject to large uncertainties be formally supported?; 3) How may available economic resources be prioritised for the purpose...... of sustainable and global life safety and health improvements? Finally, new results and perspectives are presented on the issue of allocation of resources for the purpose of improving global public health and a discussion on global risk governance concludes the paper....

Catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome. Case report and literature review

Science.gov (United States)

del Carpio-Orantes, Luis; Martínez-Anaya, Chantall Citlally; Bonilla-Casas, Elías

2017-01-01

The present document is the report of a case of a very rare clinical entity, which presents with acute multiorganic failure after a thrombotic storm related to antiphospholipid antibodies, the so-called catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome, which began as a recurrent picture of mesenteric thrombosis, with a previous history of venous insufficiency and distal ulcers probably associated with an unidentified antiphospholipid; deserving management in intensive care and the consultation by the world expert, Dr. Ricard Cervera who confirmed the diagnosis and recommend treating as such entity, the patient's evolution was satisfactory so far. Final recommendations for diagnosis and current treatment options such as rituximab or eculizumab are made. The present case was added to the international registry that currently houses around 500 cases worldwide (International CAPS Registry). Copyright: © 2017 SecretarÍa de Salud