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Sample records for northridge earthquake sequence

  1. Masonry infill performance during the Northridge earthquake

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Flanagan, R.D. [Lockheed Martin Energy Systems, Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Bennett, R.M.; Fischer, W.L. [Univ. of Tennesee, Knoxville, TN (United States); Adham, S.A. [Agbabian Associates, Pasadena, CA (United States)

    1996-03-08

    The response of masonry infills during the 1994 Northridge, California earthquake is described in terms of three categories: (1) lowrise and midrise structures experiencing large near field seismic excitations, (2) lowrise and midrise structures experiencing moderate far field excitation, and (3) highrise structures experiencing moderate far field excitation. In general, the infills provided a positive beneficial effect on the performance of the buildings, even those experiencing large peak accelerations near the epicenter. Varying types of masonry infills, structural frames, design conditions, and construction deficiencies were observed and their performance during the earthquake indicated. A summary of observations of the performance of infills in other recent earthquakes is given. Comparison with the Northridge earthquake is made and expected response of infill structures in lower seismic regions of the central and eastern United States is discussed.

  2. Lessons learned from the 1994 Northridge Earthquake

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Eli, M.W.; Sommer, S.C.

    1995-01-01

    Southern California has a history of major earthquakes and also has one of the largest metropolitan areas in the United States. The 1994 Northridge Earthquake challenged the industrial facilities and lifetime infrastructure in the northern Los Angeles (LA) area. Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) sent a team of engineers to conduct an earthquake damage investigation in the Northridge area, on a project funded jointly by the United States Nuclear Regulatory Commission (USNRC) and the United States Department of Energy (USDOE). Many of the structures, systems, and components (SSCs) and lifelines that suffered damage are similar to those found in nuclear power plants and in USDOE facilities. Lessons learned from these experiences can have some applicability at commercial nuclear power plants

  3. Effects of catastrophic events on transportation system management and operations : Northridge earthquake -- January 17, 1994

    Science.gov (United States)

    2002-04-22

    This report documents the actions taken by transportation agencies in response to the earthquake in Northridge, California on January 17, 1994, and is part of a larger effort to examine the impacts of catastrophic events on transportation system faci...

  4. Stress triggering of earthquakes: evidence for the 1994 M = 6.7 Northridge, California, shock

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. C. P. King

    1994-06-01

    Full Text Available A model of stress transfer implies that earthquakes in 1933 and 1952 increased the Conlomb stress at the site of the 1971 San Fernando earthquake. The 1971 earthquake in turn raised stress and produced aftershocks at the site of the 1987 Whittier Narrows and 1994 Northridge ruptures. The Northridge main shock raised stress in areas where its aftershocks and surface faulting occurred. Together, M ? 6 earthquakes near Los Angeles since 1933 have stressed parts of the Oak Ridge, Sierra Madre, Santa Monica Mountains, Elysian Park, and Newport-Inglewood faults by > 1 bar. While too small to cause earthquakes, these stress changes can trigger events if the crust is already near failure, or advance future earthquake occurrence if it is not.

  5. Evaluation and analysis of the performance of masonary infills during the Northridge earthquake

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bennett, R.M.; Fischer, W.L. [Univ. of Tennessee, Knoxville, TN (United States); Flanagan, R.D.; Tenbus, M.A. [Lockheed Martin, Oak Ridge, TN (United States)] [and others

    1996-02-01

    Observations were made of the behavior of masonry infills in structural frames during the Northridge earthquake, and an analytical technique was developed for analyzing infilled frame structures. Infills near the epicenter suffered significant damage, but in several cases contributed to the seismic resistance and life safety performance. Older infill buildings in downtown Los Angeles experienced intensity of shaking similar to that expected in central/eastern United States earthquakes. The infills experienced some cracking, but otherwise complemented the lateral resistance of the weak building frames. This suggests infill frame buildings in moderate seismic zones may provide at least life safety functions without the need for expensive retrofit. A developed analytical technique was used to analyze two buildings for which the observed behavior and records from the Northridge earthquake were available. The analytical technique was based on using a piecewise linear equivalent strut for the infill. Parameters for the strut were obtained by examining the results of a wide variety of experimental infill tests. The strut method is easy to incorporate in standard linear analyses, and converges quite rapidly. The strut method was applied to two structures that had records from the Northridge earthquake. Very favorable comparisons between the analytical method and observed response were obtained. Recommendations were made concerning evaluation of the vulnerability of infills to earthquakes, and the construction of infills.

  6. The January 17, 1994 Northridge Earthquake: Effects on selected industrial facilities and lifelines

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Eli, M.W.; Sommer, S.C. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab., CA (United States); Roche, T.R.; Merz, K.L.

    1995-02-01

    Revision 0 of this report is being published in February 1995 to closely mark the one-year anniversary of the Northridge Earthquake. A September 1994 Draft version of the report was reviewed by DOE and NRC, and many of the review comments are incorporated into Revision 0. While this revision of the report is not entirely complete, it is being made available for comment, review, and evaluation. Since the report was written by several authors, sections of the report have slightly different styles. Several sections of Revision 0 are not complete, but are planned to be completed in Revision 1. The primary unfinished section is Section 3.3 on Electric Power Transmission. Other sections of Revision 0, such as Section 4.5.2 on the Energy Technology Engineering Center and 3.2 on Electric Power Generation, will be enhanced with further detailed information as it becomes available. In addition, further data, including processed response spectra for investigated facilities and cataloging of relay performance, will be added to Revision 1 depending upon investigation support. While Revision 0 of this report is being published by LLNL, Revision 1 is planned to be published by EPRI. The anticipated release date for Revision 1 is December 1995. Unfortunately, the one-year anniversary of the Northridge Earthquake was also marked by the devastating Hyogo-Ken Nanbu (or Hanshin-Awaji) Earthquake in Kobe, Japan. As compared to the Northridge Earthquake, there were many more deaths, collapsed structures, destroyed lifelines, and fires following the Kobe Earthquake. Lessons from the Kobe Earthquake will both reemphasize topics discussed in this report and provide further issues to be addressed when designing and retrofitting structures, systems, and components for seismic strong motion.

  7. Spectral characteristics of vertical ground motion in the Northridge and other earthquakes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bozorgnia, Y. [ATS Engineering, Walnut Creek, CA (United States); Niazi, M. [Berkeley Geophysical Consultants, CA (United States); Campbell, K.W. [EQE International, Evergreen, CO (United States)

    1995-12-31

    Spectral characteristics of vertical ground motion recorded during the Northridge earthquake are evaluated and compared to those of other earthquakes. Relationship between vertical and horizontal spectra is examined through development of attenuation of vertical and horizontal response spectra. Vertical-to-horizontal response spectral relationship is then compared to that of 1989 Loma Prieta earthquake, and several other earthquakes recorded over SMART-1 array in Taiwan. This preliminary analysis shows that the main characteristics of vertical-to-horizontal spectral ratio are similar to those of other earthquakes. One main characteristic is that in the near-field region and in short period range, the ratio is much higher than commonly assumed ratio of 2/3.

  8. Postseismic relaxation following the 1994 Mw6.7 Northridge earthquake, southern California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Savage, J.C.; Svarc, J.L.

    2010-01-01

    We have reexamined the postearthquake deformation of a 65 km long linear array of 11 geodetic monuments extending north–south across the rupture (reverse slip on a blind thrust dipping 40°S–20°W) associated with the 1994 Mw6.7 Northridge earthquake. That array was surveyed frequently in the interval from 4 to 2650 days after the earthquake. The velocity of each of the monuments over the interval 100–2650 days postearthquake appears to be constant. Moreover, the profile of those velocities along the length of the array is very similar to a preearthquake velocity profile for a nearby, similarly oriented array. We take this to indicate that significant postseismic relaxation is evident only in the first 100 days postseismic and that the subsequent linear trend is typical of the interseismic interval. The postseismic relaxation (postseismic displacement less displacement that would have occurred at the preseismic velocity) is found to be almost wholly parallel (N70°W) to the nearby (40 km) San Andreas Fault with only negligible relaxation in the direction of coseismic slip (N20°E) on the Northridge rupture. We suggest that the N70°W relaxation is caused by aseismic, right-lateral slip at depth on the San Andreas Fault, excess slip presumably triggered by the Northridge rupture. Finally, using the Dieterich (1994) stress-seismicity relation, we show that return to the preseismic deformation rate within 100 days following the earthquake could be consistent with the cumulative number of M > 2.5 earthquakes observed following the main shock.

  9. USGS response to an urban earthquake, Northridge '94

    Science.gov (United States)

    Updike, Randall G.; Brown, William M.; Johnson, Margo L.; Omdahl, Eleanor M.; Powers, Philip S.; Rhea, Susan; Tarr, Arthur C.

    1996-01-01

    The urban centers of our Nation provide our people with seemingly unlimited employment, social, and cultural opportunities as a result of the complex interactions of a diverse population embedded in an highly-engineered environment. Catastrophic events in one or more of the natural earth systems which underlie or envelop urban environment can have radical effects on the integrity and survivability of that environment. Earthquakes have for centuries been the source of cataclysmic events on cities throughout the world. Unlike many other earth processes, the effects of major earthquakes transcend all political, social, and geomorphic boundaries and can have decided impact on cities tens to hundreds of kilometers from the epicenter. In modern cities, where buildings, transportation corridors, and lifelines are complexly interrelated, the life, economic, and social vulnerabilities in the face of a major earthquake can be particularly acute.

  10. Impact of the Northridge earthquake on the mental health of veterans: results from a panel study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dobalian, Aram; Stein, Judith A; Heslin, Kevin C; Riopelle, Deborah; Venkatesh, Brinda; Lanto, Andrew B; Simon, Barbara; Yano, Elizabeth M; Rubenstein, Lisa V

    2011-09-01

    The 1994 earthquake that struck Northridge, California, led to the closure of the Veterans Health Administration Medical Center at Sepulveda. This article examines the earthquake's impact on the mental health of an existing cohort of veterans who had previously used the Sepulveda Veterans Health Administration Medical Center. From 1 to 3 months after the disaster, trained interviewers made repeated attempts to contact participants by telephone to administer a repeated measures follow-up design survey based on a survey that had been done preearthquake. Postearthquake data were obtained on 1144 of 1800 (64%) male veterans for whom there were previous data. We tested a predictive latent variable path model of the relations between sociodemographic characteristics, predisaster physical and emotional health measures, and postdisaster emotional health and perceived earthquake impact. Perceived earthquake impact was predicted by predisaster emotional distress, functional limitations, and number of health conditions. Postdisaster emotional distress was predicted by preexisting emotional distress and earthquake impact. The regression coefficient from earthquake impact to postearthquake emotional distress was larger than that of the stability coefficient from preearthquake emotional distress. Postearthquake emotional distress also was affected indirectly by preearthquake emotional distress, health conditions, younger age, and lower socioeconomic status. The postdisaster emotional health of veterans who experienced greater earthquake impact would have likely benefited from postdisaster intervention, regardless of their predisaster emotional health. Younger veterans and veterans with generally poor physical and emotional health were more vulnerable to greater postearthquake emotional distress. Veterans of lower socioeconomic status were disproportionately likely to experience more effects of the disaster because they had more predisaster emotional distress, more functional

  11. School Site Preparedness for the Safety of California's Children K-12. Official Report of the Northridge Earthquake Task Force on Education.

    Science.gov (United States)

    California State Legislature, Sacramento. Senate Select Committee on the Northridge Earthquake.

    This report asserts that disaster preparedness at all school sites must become a major and immediate priority. Should a disaster equaling the magnitude of the Northridge earthquake occur, the current varying levels of site preparedness may not adequately protect California's children. The report describes why the state's children are not safe and…

  12. Calculation of broadband time histories of ground motion, Part II: Kinematic and dynamic modeling using theoretical Green's functions and comparison with the 1994 northridge earthquake

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hartzell, S.; Guatteri, Mariagiovanna; Mai, P.M.; Liu, P.-C.; Fisk, M. R.

    2005-01-01

    In the evolution of methods for calculating synthetic time histories of ground motion for postulated earthquakes, kinematic source models have dominated to date because of their ease of application. Dynamic models, however, which incorporate a physical relationship between important faulting parameters of stress drop, slip, rupture velocity, and rise time, are becoming more accessible. This article compares a class of kinematic models based on the summation of a fractal distribution of subevent sizes with a dynamic model based on the slip-weakening friction law. Kinematic modeling is done for the frequency band 0.2 to 10.0. Hz, dynamic models are calculated from 0.2 to 2.0. Hz. The strong motion data set for the 1994 Northridge earthquake is used to evaluate and compare the synthetic time histories. Source models are propagated to the far field by convolution with 1D and 3D theoretical Green’s functions. In addition, the kinematic model is used to evaluate the importance of propagation path effects: velocity structure, scattering, and nonlinearity. At present, the kinematic model gives a better broadband fit to the Northridge ground motion than the simple slip-weakening dynamic model. In general, the dynamic model overpredicts rise times and produces insufficient shorter-period energy. Within the context of the slip-weakening model, the Northridge ground motion requires a short slip-weakening distance, on the order of 0.15 m or less. A more complex dynamic model including rate weakening or one that allows shorter rise times near the hypocenter may fit the data better.

  13. Hotspots, Lifelines, and the Safrr Haywired Earthquake Sequence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ratliff, J. L.; Porter, K.

    2014-12-01

    Though California has experienced many large earthquakes (San Francisco, 1906; Loma Prieta, 1989; Northridge, 1994), the San Francisco Bay Area has not had a damaging earthquake for 25 years. Earthquake risk and surging reliance on smartphones and the Internet to handle everyday tasks raise the question: is an increasingly technology-reliant Bay Area prepared for potential infrastructure impacts caused by a major earthquake? How will a major earthquake on the Hayward Fault affect lifelines (roads, power, water, communication, etc.)? The U.S. Geological Survey Science Application for Risk Reduction (SAFRR) program's Haywired disaster scenario, a hypothetical two-year earthquake sequence triggered by a M7.05 mainshock on the Hayward Fault, addresses these and other questions. We explore four geographic aspects of lifeline damage from earthquakes: (1) geographic lifeline concentrations, (2) areas where lifelines pass through high shaking or potential ground-failure zones, (3) areas with diminished lifeline service demand due to severe building damage, and (4) areas with increased lifeline service demand due to displaced residents and businesses. Potential mainshock lifeline vulnerability and spatial demand changes will be discerned by superimposing earthquake shaking, liquefaction probability, and landslide probability damage thresholds with lifeline concentrations and with large-capacity shelters. Intersecting high hazard levels and lifeline clusters represent potential lifeline susceptibility hotspots. We will also analyze possible temporal vulnerability and demand changes using an aftershock shaking threshold. The results of this analysis will inform regional lifeline resilience initiatives and response and recovery planning, as well as reveal potential redundancies and weaknesses for Bay Area lifelines. Identified spatial and temporal hotspots can provide stakeholders with a reference for possible systemic vulnerability resulting from an earthquake sequence.

  14. The 2016 Kumamoto earthquake sequence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kato, Aitaro; Nakamura, Kouji; Hiyama, Yohei

    2016-01-01

    Beginning in April 2016, a series of shallow, moderate to large earthquakes with associated strong aftershocks struck the Kumamoto area of Kyushu, SW Japan. An M j 7.3 mainshock occurred on 16 April 2016, close to the epicenter of an M j 6.5 foreshock that occurred about 28 hours earlier. The intense seismicity released the accumulated elastic energy by right-lateral strike slip, mainly along two known, active faults. The mainshock rupture propagated along multiple fault segments with different geometries. The faulting style is reasonably consistent with regional deformation observed on geologic timescales and with the stress field estimated from seismic observations. One striking feature of this sequence is intense seismic activity, including a dynamically triggered earthquake in the Oita region. Following the mainshock rupture, postseismic deformation has been observed, as well as expansion of the seismicity front toward the southwest and northwest.

  15. The 2016 Kumamoto earthquake sequence

    Science.gov (United States)

    KATO, Aitaro; NAKAMURA, Kouji; HIYAMA, Yohei

    2016-01-01

    Beginning in April 2016, a series of shallow, moderate to large earthquakes with associated strong aftershocks struck the Kumamoto area of Kyushu, SW Japan. An Mj 7.3 mainshock occurred on 16 April 2016, close to the epicenter of an Mj 6.5 foreshock that occurred about 28 hours earlier. The intense seismicity released the accumulated elastic energy by right-lateral strike slip, mainly along two known, active faults. The mainshock rupture propagated along multiple fault segments with different geometries. The faulting style is reasonably consistent with regional deformation observed on geologic timescales and with the stress field estimated from seismic observations. One striking feature of this sequence is intense seismic activity, including a dynamically triggered earthquake in the Oita region. Following the mainshock rupture, postseismic deformation has been observed, as well as expansion of the seismicity front toward the southwest and northwest. PMID:27725474

  16. Stress Drops for Potentially Induced Earthquake Sequences

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Y.; Beroza, G. C.; Ellsworth, W. L.

    2015-12-01

    Stress drop, the difference between shear stress acting across a fault before and after an earthquake, is a fundamental parameter of the earthquake source process and the generation of strong ground motions. Higher stress drops usually lead to more high-frequency ground motions. Hough [2014 and 2015] observed low intensities in "Did You Feel It?" data for injection-induced earthquakes, and interpreted them to be a result of low stress drops. It is also possible that the low recorded intensities could be a result of propagation effects. Atkinson et al. [2015] show that the shallow depth of injection-induced earthquakes can lead to a lack of high-frequency ground motion as well. We apply the spectral ratio method of Imanishi and Ellsworth [2006] to analyze stress drops of injection-induced earthquakes, using smaller earthquakes with similar waveforms as empirical Green's functions (eGfs). Both the effects of path and linear site response should be cancelled out through the spectral ratio analysis. We apply this technique to the Guy-Greenbrier earthquake sequence in central Arkansas. The earthquakes migrated along the Guy-Greenbrier Fault while nearby injection wells were operating in 2010-2011. Huang and Beroza [GRL, 2015] improved the magnitude of completeness to about -1 using template matching and found that the earthquakes deviated from Gutenberg-Richter statistics during the operation of nearby injection wells. We identify 49 clusters of highly similar events in the Huang and Beroza [2015] catalog and calculate stress drops using the source model described in Imanishi and Ellsworth [2006]. Our results suggest that stress drops of the Guy-Greenbrier sequence are similar to tectonic earthquakes at Parkfield, California (the attached figure). We will also present stress drop analysis of other suspected induced earthquake sequences using the same method.

  17. Stress triggering and the Canterbury earthquake sequence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Steacy, Sandy; Jiménez, Abigail; Holden, Caroline

    2014-01-01

    The Canterbury earthquake sequence, which includes the devastating Christchurch event of 2011 February, has to date led to losses of around 40 billion NZ dollars. The location and severity of the earthquakes was a surprise to most inhabitants as the seismic hazard model was dominated by an expected Mw > 8 earthquake on the Alpine fault and an Mw 7.5 earthquake on the Porters Pass fault, 150 and 80 km to the west of Christchurch. The sequence to date has included an Mw = 7.1 earthquake and 3 Mw ≥ 5.9 events which migrated from west to east. Here we investigate whether the later events are consistent with stress triggering and whether a simple stress map produced shortly after the first earthquake would have accurately indicated the regions where the subsequent activity occurred. We find that 100 per cent of M > 5.5 earthquakes occurred in positive stress areas computed using a slip model for the first event that was available within 10 d of its occurrence. We further find that the stress changes at the starting points of major slip patches of post-Darfield main events are consistent with triggering although this is not always true at the hypocentral locations. Our results suggest that Coulomb stress changes contributed to the evolution of the Canterbury sequence and we note additional areas of increased stress in the Christchurch region and on the Porters Pass fault.

  18. Earthquake forecasting during the complex Amatrice-Norcia seismic sequence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marzocchi, Warner; Taroni, Matteo; Falcone, Giuseppe

    2017-09-01

    Earthquake forecasting is the ultimate challenge for seismologists, because it condenses the scientific knowledge about the earthquake occurrence process, and it is an essential component of any sound risk mitigation planning. It is commonly assumed that, in the short term, trustworthy earthquake forecasts are possible only for typical aftershock sequences, where the largest shock is followed by many smaller earthquakes that decay with time according to the Omori power law. We show that the current Italian operational earthquake forecasting system issued statistically reliable and skillful space-time-magnitude forecasts of the largest earthquakes during the complex 2016-2017 Amatrice-Norcia sequence, which is characterized by several bursts of seismicity and a significant deviation from the Omori law. This capability to deliver statistically reliable forecasts is an essential component of any program to assist public decision-makers and citizens in the challenging risk management of complex seismic sequences.

  19. Earthquake Triggering in the September 2017 Mexican Earthquake Sequence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fielding, E. J.; Gombert, B.; Duputel, Z.; Huang, M. H.; Liang, C.; Bekaert, D. P.; Moore, A. W.; Liu, Z.; Ampuero, J. P.

    2017-12-01

    Southern Mexico was struck by four earthquakes with Mw > 6 and numerous smaller earthquakes in September 2017, starting with the 8 September Mw 8.2 Tehuantepec earthquake beneath the Gulf of Tehuantepec offshore Chiapas and Oaxaca. We study whether this M8.2 earthquake triggered the three subsequent large M>6 quakes in southern Mexico to improve understanding of earthquake interactions and time-dependent risk. All four large earthquakes were extensional despite the the subduction of the Cocos plate. The traditional definition of aftershocks: likely an aftershock if it occurs within two rupture lengths of the main shock soon afterwards. Two Mw 6.1 earthquakes, one half an hour after the M8.2 beneath the Tehuantepec gulf and one on 23 September near Ixtepec in Oaxaca, both fit as traditional aftershocks, within 200 km of the main rupture. The 19 September Mw 7.1 Puebla earthquake was 600 km away from the M8.2 shock, outside the standard aftershock zone. Geodetic measurements from interferometric analysis of synthetic aperture radar (InSAR) and time-series analysis of GPS station data constrain finite fault total slip models for the M8.2, M7.1, and M6.1 Ixtepec earthquakes. The early M6.1 aftershock was too close in time and space to the M8.2 to measure with InSAR or GPS. We analyzed InSAR data from Copernicus Sentinel-1A and -1B satellites and JAXA ALOS-2 satellite. Our preliminary geodetic slip model for the M8.2 quake shows significant slip extended > 150 km NW from the hypocenter, longer than slip in the v1 finite-fault model (FFM) from teleseismic waveforms posted by G. Hayes at USGS NEIC. Our slip model for the M7.1 earthquake is similar to the v2 NEIC FFM. Interferograms for the M6.1 Ixtepec quake confirm the shallow depth in the upper-plate crust and show centroid is about 30 km SW of the NEIC epicenter, a significant NEIC location bias, but consistent with cluster relocations (E. Bergman, pers. comm.) and with Mexican SSN location. Coulomb static stress

  20. Clustered and transient earthquake sequences in mid-continents

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, M.; Stein, S. A.; Wang, H.; Luo, G.

    2012-12-01

    Earthquakes result from sudden release of strain energy on faults. On plate boundary faults, strain energy is constantly accumulating from steady and relatively rapid relative plate motion, so large earthquakes continue to occur so long as motion continues on the boundary. In contrast, such steady accumulation of stain energy does not occur on faults in mid-continents, because the far-field tectonic loading is not steadily distributed between faults, and because stress perturbations from complex fault interactions and other stress triggers can be significant relative to the slow tectonic stressing. Consequently, mid-continental earthquakes are often temporally clustered and transient, and spatially migrating. This behavior is well illustrated by large earthquakes in North China in the past two millennia, during which no single large earthquakes repeated on the same fault segments, but moment release between large fault systems was complementary. Slow tectonic loading in mid-continents also causes long aftershock sequences. We show that the recent small earthquakes in the Tangshan region of North China are aftershocks of the 1976 Tangshan earthquake (M 7.5), rather than indicators of a new phase of seismic activity in North China, as many fear. Understanding the transient behavior of mid-continental earthquakes has important implications for assessing earthquake hazards. The sequence of large earthquakes in the New Madrid Seismic Zone (NMSZ) in central US, which includes a cluster of M~7 events in 1811-1812 and perhaps a few similar ones in the past millennium, is likely a transient process, releasing previously accumulated elastic strain on recently activated faults. If so, this earthquake sequence will eventually end. Using simple analysis and numerical modeling, we show that the large NMSZ earthquakes may be ending now or in the near future.

  1. Comparison of aftershock sequences between 1975 Haicheng earthquake and 1976 Tangshan earthquake

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, B.

    2017-12-01

    The 1975 ML 7.3 Haicheng earthquake and the 1976 ML 7.8 Tangshan earthquake occurred in the same tectonic unit. There are significant differences in spatial-temporal distribution, number of aftershocks and time duration for the aftershock sequence followed by these two main shocks. As we all know, aftershocks could be triggered by the regional seismicity change derived from the main shock, which was caused by the Coulomb stress perturbation. Based on the rate- and state- dependent friction law, we quantitative estimated the possible aftershock time duration with a combination of seismicity data, and compared the results from different approaches. The results indicate that, aftershock time durations from the Tangshan main shock is several times of that form the Haicheng main shock. This can be explained by the significant relationship between aftershock time duration and earthquake nucleation history, normal stressand shear stress loading rateon the fault. In fact the obvious difference of earthquake nucleation history from these two main shocks is the foreshocks. 1975 Haicheng earthquake has clear and long foreshocks, while 1976 Tangshan earthquake did not have clear foreshocks. In that case, abundant foreshocks may mean a long and active nucleation process that may have changed (weakened) the rocks in the source regions, so they should have a shorter aftershock sequences for the reason that stress in weak rocks decay faster.

  2. Statistical parameters of Bhuj earthquake sequence of January 26th ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    R. Narasimhan (Krishtel eMaging) 1461 1996 Oct 15 13:05:22

    2001-01-26

    Jan 26, 2001 ... geneity of the rock mass and increases with the increase in the heterogeneity. Fitting equation (1) to the present aftershock sequence by using the graphical approach gives a and b as 5.56 and 0.86 respectively. Agrawal (1991) states that tectonic earthquakes are characterised by the b-value from 0.5 to ...

  3. The 2011 Hawthorne, Nevada, Earthquake Sequence; Shallow Normal Faulting

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, K. D.; Johnson, C.; Davies, J. A.; Agbaje, T.; Knezevic Antonijevic, S.; Kent, G.

    2011-12-01

    An energetic sequence of shallow earthquakes that began in early March 2011 in western Nevada, near the community of Hawthorne, has slowly decreased in intensity through mid-2011. To date about 1300 reviewed earthquake locations have been compiled; we have computed moment tensors for the larger earthquakes and have developed a set of high-precision locations for all reviewed events. The sequence to date has included over 50 earthquakes ML 3 and larger with the largest at Mw 4.6. Three 6-channel portable stations configured with broadband sensors and accelerometers were installed by April 20. Data from the portable instruments is telemetered through NSL's microwave backbone to Reno where it is integrated with regional network data for real-time notifications, ShakeMaps, and routine event analysis. The data is provided in real-time to NEIC, CISN and the IRIS DMC. The sequence is located in a remote area about 15-20 km southwest of Hawthorne in the footwall block of the Wassuk Range fault system. An initial concern was that the sequence might be associated with volcanic processes due to the proximity of late Quaternary volcanic flows; there have been no volcanic signatures observed in near source seismograms. An additional concern, as the sequence has proceeded, was a clear progression eastward toward the Wassuk Range front fault. The east dipping range bounding fault is capable of M 7+ events, and poses a significant hazard to the community of Hawthorne and local military facilities. The Hawthorne Army Depot is an ordinance storage facility and the nation's storage site for surplus mercury. The sequence is within what has been termed the 'Mina Deflection' of the Central Walker Lane Belt. Faulting along the Whiskey Flat section of the Wassuk front fault would be primarily down-to-the-east, with an E-W extension direction; moment tensors for the 2011 earthquake show a range of extension directions from E-W to NW-SE, suggesting a possible dextral component to the Wassuk

  4. An ongoing earthquake sequence near Dhaka, Bangladesh, from regional recordings

    Science.gov (United States)

    Howe, M.; Mondal, D. R.; Akhter, S. H.; Kim, W.; Seeber, L.; Steckler, M. S.

    2013-12-01

    Earthquakes in and around the syntaxial region between the continent-continent collision of the Himalayan arc and oceanic subduction of the Sunda arc result primarily from the convergence of India and Eurasia-Sunda plates along two fronts. The northern front, the convergence of the Indian and Eurasian plates, has produced the Himalayas. The eastern front, the convergence of the Indian and Sunda plates, ranges from ocean-continent subduction at the Andaman Arc and Burma Arc, and transitions to continent-continent collision to the north at the Assam Syntaxis in northeast India. The India-Sunda convergence at the Burma Arc is extremely oblique. The boundary-normal convergence rate is ~17 mm/yr while the boundary-parallel rate is ~45 mm/yr including the well-known Sagaing strike-slip fault, which accommodates about half the shear component. This heterogeneous tectonic setting produces multiple earthquake sources that need to be considered when assessing seismic hazard and risk in this region. The largest earthquakes, just as in other subduction systems, are expected to be interplate events that occur on the low-angle megathrusts, such as the Mw 9.2 2004 Sumatra-Andaman earthquake and the 1762 earthquake along the Arakan margin. These earthquakes are known to produce large damage over vast areas, but since they account for large fault motions they are relatively rare. The majority of current seismicity in the study area is intraplate. Most of the seismicity associated with the Burma Arc subduction system is in the down-going slab, including the shallow-dipping part below the megathrust flooring the accretionary wedge. The strike of the wedge is ~N-S and Dhaka lies at its outer limit. One particular source relevant to seismic risk in Dhaka is illuminated by a multi-year sequence of earthquakes in Bangladesh less than 100 km southeast of Dhaka. The population in Dhaka (now at least 15 million) has been increasing dramatically due to rapid urbanization. The vulnerability

  5. 2017 Valparaíso earthquake sequence and the megathrust patchwork of central Chile

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Nealy, Jennifer L.; Herman, Matthew W.; Moore, Ginevra L.; Hayes, Gavin P.; Benz, Harley M.; Bergman, Eric A.; Barrientos, Sergio E.

    2017-01-01

    In April 2017, a sequence of earthquakes offshore Valparaíso, Chile, raised concerns of a potential megathrust earthquake in the near future. The largest event in the 2017 sequence was a M6.9 on 24 April, seemingly colocated with the last great-sized earthquake in the region—a M8.0 in March 1985.

  6. Seismic waveform analyses for the 1938 Off Fukushima earthquake sequence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Murotani, S.; Satake, K.

    2016-12-01

    The 1938 Off Fukushima (Shioya-oki) earthquakes sequence, which consists of five earthquakes of Mjmaranging from 6.9 to 7.5, occurred in the southern part of the 2011 Tohoku earthquake source area. In this region, the 1938 sequence was the only known M 7 earthquakes until the 2011 Tohoku earthquake occurred. Abe (1977, Tectonophysics) estimated the focal mechanisms and seismic moments of these events. The source parameters of the earthquake sequence are shown in the following table. However, the slip distributions are not known. Murotani et al. (2004, SSJ Fall Meeting) estimated slip distributions for event 1 (Mw 7.6, Fault size 60 km x 70 km), event 2 (Mw 7.9, Fault size 80 km x 60 km), and event 3 (Mw 7.8, Fault size 90 km x 60 km) from inversion of near-field seismic waveforms at Sendai, Niigata, Maebashi, Mito, and Hongo (Tokyo). We compared the observed teleseismic waveforms at Christchurch (CHR), De Bilt (DBN), Pasadena (PAS), and Pulkovo (PUL) with the calculated waveforms from these slip distributions. The result showed that the computed waveforms fairly reproduced the phases of the observation but the amplitudes for all events were several to several tens of times larger than the observations. It means that the slip amount and Mwobtained from the near field seismic waveforms inversion were over-estimated. For event 3, the slip distribution estimated from near-field data has two large slip areas (asperities) to the north and south of the hypocenter, although only the southern asperity was able to reproduce the observed near-field seismic waveforms. When we calculate the teleseismic waveforms using one asperity model, the amplitudes become small and the phases are reproduced better compared to two asperities model. Event 3 therefore seemed to have only one asperity. In addition to the re-analysis of near field seismic data, tsunami waveforms will be also computed and compared with the observations. This study was supported by JSPS KAKENHI Grant Number JP16H

  7. Seismic sequences, swarms, and large earthquakes in Italy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Amato, Alessandro; Piana Agostinetti, Nicola; Selvaggi, Giulio; Mele, Franco

    2016-04-01

    In recent years, particularly after the L'Aquila 2009 earthquake and the 2012 Emilia sequence, the issue of earthquake predictability has been at the center of the discussion in Italy, not only within the scientific community but also in the courtrooms and in the media. Among the noxious effects of the L'Aquila trial there was an increase of scaremongering and false alerts during earthquake sequences and swarms, culminated in a groundless one-night evacuation in northern Tuscany in 2013. We have analyzed the Italian seismicity of the last decades in order to determine the rate of seismic sequences and investigate some of their characters, including frequencies, min/max durations, maximum magnitudes, main shock timing, etc. Selecting only sequences with an equivalent magnitude of 3.5 or above, we find an average of 30 sequences/year. Although there is an extreme variability in the examined parameters, we could set some boundaries, useful to obtain some quantitative estimates of the ongoing activity. In addition, the historical catalogue is rich of complex sequences in which one main shock is followed, seconds, days or months later, by another event with similar or higher magnitude We also analysed the Italian CPT11 catalogue (Rovida et al., 2011) between 1950 and 2006 to highlight the foreshock-mainshock event couples that were suggested in previous studies to exist (e.g. six couples, Marzocchi and Zhuang, 2011). Moreover, to investigate the probability of having random foreshock-mainshock couples over the investigated period, we produced 1000 synthetic catalogues, randomly distributing in time the events occured in such period. Preliminary results indicate that: (1) all but one of the the so-called foreshock-mainshock pairs found in Marzocchi and Zhuang (2011) fall inside previously well-known and studied seismic sequences (Belice, Friuli and Umbria-Marche), meaning that suggested foreshocks are also aftershocks; and (2) due to the high-rate of the italian

  8. January 1994 Northridge, USA Images

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — At 4:31 am local time (12:31 GMT) on Monday, January 17, 1994, a magnitude 6.8 earthquake twenty miles west northwest of downtown Los Angeles awoke nearly everyone...

  9. Revisiting the Canterbury earthquake sequence after the 14 February 2016 Mw 5.7 event

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Herman, Matthew W.; Furlong, Kevin P.

    2016-01-01

    On 14 February 2016, an Mw 5.7 (GNS Science moment magnitude) earthquake ruptured offshore east of Christchurch, New Zealand. This earthquake occurred in an area that had previously experienced significant seismicity from 2010 to 2012 during the Canterbury earthquake sequence, starting with the 2010

  10. The 2006-2007 Kuril Islands great earthquake sequence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lay, T.; Kanamori, H.; Ammon, C.J.; Hutko, Alexander R.; Furlong, K.; Rivera, L.

    2009-01-01

    The southwestern half of a ???500 km long seismic gap in the central Kuril Island arc subduction zone experienced two great earthquakes with extensive preshock and aftershock sequences in late 2006 to early 2007. The nature of seismic coupling in the gap had been uncertain due to the limited historical record of prior large events and the presence of distinctive upper plate, trench and outer rise structures relative to adjacent regions along the arc that have experienced repeated great interplate earthquakes in the last few centuries. The intraplate region seaward of the seismic gap had several shallow compressional events during the preceding decades (notably an MS 7.2 event on 16 March 1963), leading to speculation that the interplate fault was seismically coupled. This issue was partly resolved by failure of the shallow portion of the interplate megathrust in an MW = 8.3 thrust event on 15 November 2006. This event ruptured ???250 km along the seismic gap, just northeast of the great 1963 Kuril Island (Mw = 8.5) earthquake rupture zone. Within minutes of the thrust event, intense earthquake activity commenced beneath the outer wall of the trench seaward of the interplate rupture, with the larger events having normal-faulting mechanisms. An unusual double band of interplate and intraplate aftershocks developed. On 13 January 2007, an MW = 8.1 extensional earthquake ruptured within the Pacific plate beneath the seaward edge of the Kuril trench. This event is the third largest normal-faulting earthquake seaward of a subduction zone on record, and its rupture zone extended to at least 33 km depth and paralleled most of the length of the 2006 rupture. The 13 January 2007 event produced stronger shaking in Japan than the larger thrust event, as a consequence of higher short-period energy radiation from the source. The great event aftershock sequences were dominated by the expected faulting geometries; thrust faulting for the 2006 rupture zone, and normal faulting for

  11. Source modeling of the 2015 Mw 7.8 Nepal (Gorkha) earthquake sequence: Implications for geodynamics and earthquake hazards

    Science.gov (United States)

    McNamara, D. E.; Yeck, W. L.; Barnhart, W. D.; Schulte-Pelkum, V.; Bergman, E.; Adhikari, L. B.; Dixit, A.; Hough, S. E.; Benz, H. M.; Earle, P. S.

    2017-09-01

    The Gorkha earthquake on April 25th, 2015 was a long anticipated, low-angle thrust-faulting event on the shallow décollement between the India and Eurasia plates. We present a detailed multiple-event hypocenter relocation analysis of the Mw 7.8 Gorkha Nepal earthquake sequence, constrained by local seismic stations, and a geodetic rupture model based on InSAR and GPS data. We integrate these observations to place the Gorkha earthquake sequence into a seismotectonic context and evaluate potential earthquake hazard. Major results from this study include (1) a comprehensive catalog of calibrated hypocenters for the Gorkha earthquake sequence; (2) the Gorkha earthquake ruptured a 150 × 60 km patch of the Main Himalayan Thrust (MHT), the décollement defining the plate boundary at depth, over an area surrounding but predominantly north of the capital city of Kathmandu (3) the distribution of aftershock seismicity surrounds the mainshock maximum slip patch; (4) aftershocks occur at or below the mainshock rupture plane with depths generally increasing to the north beneath the higher Himalaya, possibly outlining a 10-15 km thick subduction channel between the overriding Eurasian and subducting Indian plates; (5) the largest Mw 7.3 aftershock and the highest concentration of aftershocks occurred to the southeast the mainshock rupture, on a segment of the MHT décollement that was positively stressed towards failure; (6) the near surface portion of the MHT south of Kathmandu shows no aftershocks or slip during the mainshock. Results from this study characterize the details of the Gorkha earthquake sequence and provide constraints on where earthquake hazard remains high, and thus where future, damaging earthquakes may occur in this densely populated region. Up-dip segments of the MHT should be considered to be high hazard for future damaging earthquakes.

  12. Source modeling of the 2015 Mw 7.8 Nepal (Gorkha) earthquake sequence: Implications for geodynamics and earthquake hazards

    Science.gov (United States)

    McNamara, Daniel E.; Yeck, William; Barnhart, William D.; Schulte-Pelkum, V.; Bergman, E.; Adhikari, L. B.; Dixit, Amod; Hough, S.E.; Benz, Harley M.; Earle, Paul

    2017-01-01

    The Gorkha earthquake on April 25th, 2015 was a long anticipated, low-angle thrust-faulting event on the shallow décollement between the India and Eurasia plates. We present a detailed multiple-event hypocenter relocation analysis of the Mw 7.8 Gorkha Nepal earthquake sequence, constrained by local seismic stations, and a geodetic rupture model based on InSAR and GPS data. We integrate these observations to place the Gorkha earthquake sequence into a seismotectonic context and evaluate potential earthquake hazard.Major results from this study include (1) a comprehensive catalog of calibrated hypocenters for the Gorkha earthquake sequence; (2) the Gorkha earthquake ruptured a ~ 150 × 60 km patch of the Main Himalayan Thrust (MHT), the décollement defining the plate boundary at depth, over an area surrounding but predominantly north of the capital city of Kathmandu (3) the distribution of aftershock seismicity surrounds the mainshock maximum slip patch; (4) aftershocks occur at or below the mainshock rupture plane with depths generally increasing to the north beneath the higher Himalaya, possibly outlining a 10–15 km thick subduction channel between the overriding Eurasian and subducting Indian plates; (5) the largest Mw 7.3 aftershock and the highest concentration of aftershocks occurred to the southeast the mainshock rupture, on a segment of the MHT décollement that was positively stressed towards failure; (6) the near surface portion of the MHT south of Kathmandu shows no aftershocks or slip during the mainshock. Results from this study characterize the details of the Gorkha earthquake sequence and provide constraints on where earthquake hazard remains high, and thus where future, damaging earthquakes may occur in this densely populated region. Up-dip segments of the MHT should be considered to be high hazard for future damaging earthquakes.

  13. Potentially induced earthquakes in Oklahoma, USA: links between wastewater injection and the 2011 Mw 5.7 earthquake sequence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keranen, Katie M.; Savage, Heather M.; Abers, Geoffrey A.; Cochran, Elizabeth S.

    2013-01-01

    Significant earthquakes are increasingly occurring within the continental interior of the United States, including five of moment magnitude (Mw) ≥ 5.0 in 2011 alone. Concurrently, the volume of fluid injected into the subsurface related to the production of unconventional resources continues to rise. Here we identify the largest earthquake potentially related to injection, an Mw 5.7 earthquake in November 2011 in Oklahoma. The earthquake was felt in at least 17 states and caused damage in the epicentral region. It occurred in a sequence, with 2 earthquakes of Mw 5.0 and a prolific sequence of aftershocks. We use the aftershocks to illuminate the faults that ruptured in the sequence, and show that the tip of the initial rupture plane is within ~200 m of active injection wells and within ~1 km of the surface; 30% of early aftershocks occur within the sedimentary section. Subsurface data indicate that fluid was injected into effectively sealed compartments, and we interpret that a net fluid volume increase after 18 yr of injection lowered effective stress on reservoir-bounding faults. Significantly, this case indicates that decades-long lags between the commencement of fluid injection and the onset of induced earthquakes are possible, and modifies our common criteria for fluid-induced events. The progressive rupture of three fault planes in this sequence suggests that stress changes from the initial rupture triggered the successive earthquakes, including one larger than the first.

  14. Earthquake sequence simulations with measured properties for JFAST core samples

    Science.gov (United States)

    Noda, Hiroyuki; Sawai, Michiyo; Shibazaki, Bunichiro

    2017-08-01

    Since the 2011 Tohoku-Oki earthquake, multi-disciplinary observational studies have promoted our understanding of both the coseismic and long-term behaviour of the Japan Trench subduction zone. We also have suggestions for mechanical properties of the fault from the experimental side. In the present study, numerical models of earthquake sequences are presented, accounting for the experimental outcomes and being consistent with observations of both long-term and coseismic fault behaviour and thermal measurements. Among the constraints, a previous study of friction experiments for samples collected in the Japan Trench Fast Drilling Project (JFAST) showed complex rate dependences: a and a-b values change with the slip rate. In order to express such complexity, we generalize a rate- and state-dependent friction law to a quadratic form in terms of the logarithmic slip rate. The constraints from experiments reduced the degrees of freedom of the model significantly, and we managed to find a plausible model by changing only a few parameters. Although potential scale effects between lab experiments and natural faults are important problems, experimental data may be useful as a guide in exploring the huge model parameter space. This article is part of the themed issue 'Faulting, friction and weakening: from slow to fast motion'.

  15. 2017 Valparaíso earthquake sequence and the megathrust patchwork of central Chile

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nealy, Jennifer; Herman, Matthew W.; Moore, Ginevra; Hayes, Gavin; Benz, Harley M.; Bergman, Eric A.; Barrientos, Sergio E

    2017-01-01

    In April 2017, a sequence of earthquakes offshore Valparaíso, Chile, raised concerns of a potential megathrust earthquake in the near future. The largest event in the 2017 sequence was a M6.9 on 24 April, seemingly colocated with the last great-sized earthquake in the region—a M8.0 in March 1985. The history of large earthquakes in this region shows significant variation in rupture size and extent, typically highlighted by a juxtaposition of large ruptures interspersed with smaller magnitude sequences. We show that the 2017 sequence ruptured an area between the two main slip patches during the 1985 earthquake, rerupturing a patch that had previously slipped during the October 1973 M6.5 earthquake sequence. A significant gap in historic ruptures exists directly to the south of the 2017 sequence, with large enough moment deficit to host a great-sized earthquake in the near future, if it is locked.

  16. Seismic evidence of conjugate normal faulting: The 1994 Devil Canyon earthquake sequence near Challis, Idaho

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jackson, Suzette M. [Boise State Univ., ID (United States)

    1994-08-01

    Aftershock hypocenters of the 1984 Devil Canyon, Idaho earthquake indicate the sequence was associated with conjugate normal faulting on two northwest-striking normal faults that bound the Warm Spring Creek graben.

  17. Response and recovery lessons from the 2010-2011 earthquake sequence in Canterbury, New Zealand

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pierepiekarz, Mark; Johnston, David; Berryman, Kelvin; Hare, John; Gomberg, Joan S.; Williams, Robert A.; Weaver, Craig S.

    2014-01-01

    The impacts and opportunities that result when low-probability moderate earthquakes strike an urban area similar to many throughout the US were vividly conveyed in a one-day workshop in which social and Earth scientists, public officials, engineers, and an emergency manager shared their experiences of the earthquake sequence that struck the city of Christchurch and surrounding Canterbury region of New Zealand in 2010-2011. Without question, the earthquake sequence has had unprecedented impacts in all spheres on New Zealand society, locally to nationally--10% of the country's population was directly impacted and losses total 8-10% of their GDP. The following paragraphs present a few lessons from Christchurch.

  18. Relocation and Seismogenic Structure of the 1998 Zhangbei-Shangyi Earthquake Sequence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Z.

    2002-05-01

    An earthquake of magnitude 6.2 occurred in the Zhangbei-Shangyi region in the northern China on January 10, 1998. The earthquake was about 180km to the northwest of the Beijing City and was felt at Beijing. This earthquake is the largest event since the 1976 great Tangshan earthquake of magnitude 7.8 in the northern China. Historically seismicity in the Zhangbei-Shangyi region was very low. In the epicentral area no active fault constituting the seismogenic geological features capable of generating moderate earthquakes like this earthquake has been found before the earthquake. Nor surface faulting has been observed after the earthquake. Field geological investigation after the earthquake found two conjugate surface features trending NNE-NE and NNW-WNW. Because of the geometry of the seismic network the hypocentral distribution of the Zhangbei-Shangyi earthquake sequence given by routine location exhibited no any preferable orientation feature. In this study the Zhangbei-Shangyi earthquake and its aftershocks with magnitude equal or lager than 3.0 were relocated using both the master event relative relocation algorithm and the double-difference earthquake relocation algorithm (Waldhauser, 2000). Both algorithms gave consistent results within accuracy limits. The epicenter of the main shock was 41.15­aN and 114.46­aE, which was located 4km apart from the macro-epicenter of this event. The focal depth of the main shock was 15 km. The epicenters of aftershocks of this earthquake sequence distribute in a nearly vertical plane and its vicinity with orientation N20­aE. The results of relocation for the Zhangbei-Shangyi earthquake sequence clearly indicate that the seismogenic structure of this event is a N20­aE striking fault with right-lateral reverse slip, and that the occurrence of the Zhangbei-Shangyi earthquake is tectonically driven by the horizontal and oriented ENE compression stress, same as that of the stress field in northern China.

  19. Ductility Enhancement of Post-Northridge Connections by Multilongitudinal Voids in the Beam Web

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sepanta Naimi

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Since the earthquakes in Northridge and Kobe in 1994 and 1995, respectively, many investigations have been carried out towards improving the strength and ductility of steel beam to column pre- and post-Northridge connections. In order to achieve these objectives, recent researches are mainly focused on three principles: reducing the beam section to improve the beam ductility, adding different kinds of slit damper to beam and column flanges to absorb and dissipate the input earthquake energy in the connection and strengthening the connection area using additional elements such as rib plates, cover plates, and flange plates to keep the plastic hinges away from the column face. This paper presents a reduced beam section approach via the introduction of multilongitudinal voids (MLV in the beam web for various beam depths varying from 450 mm to 912 mm. ANSYS finite element program was used to simulate the three different sizes of SAC sections: SAC3, SAC5, and SAC7. Results showed an improvement in the connection ductility since the input energy was dissipated uniformly along the beam length and the total rotation of the connection was over four percent radian.

  20. Earthquakes

    Science.gov (United States)

    An earthquake happens when two blocks of the earth suddenly slip past one another. Earthquakes strike suddenly, violently, and without warning at any time of the day or night. If an earthquake occurs in a populated area, it may cause ...

  1. Long Aftershock Sequences within Continents and Implications for Earthquake Hazard Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stein, S. A.; Liu, M.

    2014-12-01

    Recent seismicity in the Tangshan region in North China has prompted concern about a repetition of the 1976 M7.8 earthquake that destroyed the city, killing more than 242,000 people. However, the decay of seismicity there implies that the recent earthquakes are probably aftershocks of the 1976 event. This 37-year sequence is an example of the phenomenon that aftershock sequences within continents are often significantly longer than the typical 10 years at plate boundaries. The long sequence of aftershocks in continents is consistent with a simple friction-based model predicting that the length of aftershock sequences varies inversely with the rate at which faults are loaded. Hence the slowly-deforming continents tend to have aftershock sequences significantly longer than at rapidly-loaded plate boundaries. This effect has two consequences for hazard assessment. First, within the heavily populated continents that are typically within plate interiors, assessments of earthquake hazards rely significantly on the assumption that the locations of small earthquakes shown by the short historical record reflect continuing deformation that will cause future large earthquakes. This assumption would lead to overestimation of the hazard in presently active areas and underestimation elsewhere, if some of these small events are aftershocks. Second, successful attempts to remove aftershocks from catalogs used for hazard assessment would underestimate the hazard, because much of the hazard is due to the aftershocks, and the declustering algorithms implicitly assume short aftershock sequences and thus do not remove long-duration ones.

  2. Scientific overview and historical context of the 1811-1812 New Madrid earthquake sequence

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. E. Hough

    2004-06-01

    Full Text Available The central and eastern United States has experienced only 5 historic earthquakes with Mw 7.0, four during the New Madrid sequence of 1811-1812: three principal mainshocks and the so-called «dawn aftershock» following the first mainshock. Much of the historic earthquake research done in the United States has focused on the New Madrid Seismic Zone (NMSZ, because the largest New Madrid earthquakes may represent the archetype for the most damaging earthquakes to be expected in intraplate regions. Published magnitude values ranging from 7.0 to 8.75 have generally been based on macroseismic effects, which provide the most direct constraint on source size for the events. Critical to the interpretation of these accounts is an understanding of their historic context. Early settlments clustered along waterways, where substantial amplification of seismic waves is expected. Analyzing the New Madrid intensity values with a consideration of these effects yields preferred values of Mw 7.2-7.3, 7.0, and 7.4-7.5 for the December, January, and February mainshocks, respectively, and of 7.0 for the «dawn aftershock». These values are consistent with other lines of evidence, including scaling relationships. Finally, I show that accounts from the New Madrid sequence reveal evidence for remotely triggered earthquakes well outside the NMSZ. Remotely triggered earthquakes represent a potentially important new wrinkle in historic earthquake research, as their ground motions can sometimes be confused with mainshock ground motions.

  3. Abundant aftershock sequence of the 2015 Mw7.5 Hindu Kush intermediate-depth earthquake

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Chenyu; Peng, Zhigang; Yao, Dongdong; Guo, Hao; Zhan, Zhongwen; Zhang, Haijiang

    2018-05-01

    The 2015 Mw7.5 Hindu Kush earthquake occurred at a depth of 213 km beneath the Hindu Kush region of Afghanistan. While many early aftershocks were missing from the global earthquake catalogues, this sequence was recorded continuously by eight broad-band stations within 500 km. Here we use a waveform matching technique to systematically detect earthquakes around the main shock. More than 3000 events are detected within 35 d after the main shock, as compared with 42 listed in the Advanced National Seismic System catalogue (or 196 in the International Seismological Centre catalogue). The aftershock sequence generally follows the Omori's law with a decay constant p = 0.92. We also apply the recently developed double-pair double-difference technique to relocate all detected aftershocks. Most of them are located to the west of the hypocentre of the main shock, consistent with the westward propagation of the main-shock rupture. The aftershocks outline a nearly vertical southward dipping plane, which matches well with one of the nodal planes of the main shock. We conclude that the aftershock sequence of this intermediate-depth earthquake shares many similarities with those for shallow earthquakes and infer that there are some common mechanisms responsible for shallow and intermediate-depth earthquakes.

  4. Abundant Aftershock Sequence of the 2015 Mw7.5 Hindu Kush Intermediate-Depth Earthquake

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Chenyu; Peng, Zhigang; Yao, Dongdong; Guo, Hao; Zhan, Zhongwen; Zhang, Haijiang

    2018-01-01

    The 2015 Mw7.5 Hindu Kush earthquake occurred at a depth of 212.5 km beneath the Hindu Kush region of Afghanistan. While many early aftershocks were missing from the global earthquake catalogs, this sequence were recorded continuously by 8 broadband stations within 500 km. Here we use a waveform matching technique to systematically detect earthquakes around the mainshock. More than 3,000 events are detected within 35 days after the mainshock, as compared with 42 listed in the ANSS catalog (or 196 in the ISC catalog). The aftershock sequence generally follows the Omori's law with a decay constant p = 0.92. We also apply the recently developed double-pair double-difference technique to relocate all detected aftershocks. Most of them are located to the west of the mainshock's hypocenter, consistent with the westward propagation of the mainshock rupture. The aftershocks outline a nearly vertical southward dipping plane, which matches well with one of the mainshock's nodal plane. We conclude that the aftershock sequence of this intermediate-depth earthquake shares many similarities with those for shallow earthquakes and infer that there are some common mechanisms responsible for shallow and intermediate-depth earthquakes.

  5. Earthquakes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pakiser, Louis C.

    One of a series of general interest publications on science topics, the booklet provides those interested in earthquakes with an introduction to the subject. Following a section presenting an historical look at the world's major earthquakes, the booklet discusses earthquake-prone geographic areas, the nature and workings of earthquakes, earthquake…

  6. Statistical parameters of Bhuj earthquake sequence of January 26th ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    R. Narasimhan (Krishtel eMaging) 1461 1996 Oct 15 13:05:22

    2001-01-26

    Jan 26, 2001 ... The b-value (0.86), value of M0–M1 (1.2), high M1/M0 (0.89) and high value of the decay constant h (0.91), all support the tectonic origin of the present study. 1. Introduction. The Bhuj earthquake of January 26th, 2001 (Mc = 6.9) took a heavy toll of human lives, exceeding. 17000 (Anon 2001b). The damage ...

  7. Earthquake forecasting in Italy, before and after Umbria-Marche seismic sequence 1997. A review of the earthquake occurrence modeling at different spatio-temporal-magnitude scales.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    W. Marzocchi

    2008-06-01

    Full Text Available The main goal of this work is to review the scientific researches carried out before and after the Umbria-Marche sequence related to the earthquake forecasting/prediction in Italy. In particular, I focus the attention on models that aim addressing three main practical questions: was (is Umbria-Marche a region with high probability of occurrence of a destructive earthquake? Was a precursory activity recorded before the mainshock(s? What was our capability to model the spatio-temporal-magnitude evolution of that seismic sequence? The models are reviewed pointing out what we have learned after the Umbria-Marche earthquakes, in terms of physical understanding of earthquake occurrence process, and of improving our capability to forecast earthquakes and to track in real-time seismic sequences.

  8. Stress drop estimates of potentially induced earthquakes in the Guy-Greenbrier sequence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Yihe; Beroza, Gregory C.; Ellsworth, William L.

    2016-09-01

    We calculate corner frequencies and stress drops for 25 potentially induced earthquakes (Mw 2.17 - 2.57) in the Guy-Greenbrier sequence in the central Arkansas. We use the spectral ratio method, employing highly similar earthquakes as empirical Green's functions (eGfs). We show that multiple eGfs give consistent corner frequency estimates for the same earthquake and find a range of stress drops of 1.02 MPa to 42.50 MPa with a median of 10.57 MPa by using the Brune spectral model and the source parameters given by Sato and Hirasawa. We also analyze stress drop dependence on the assumed spectral models and source parameters and use a bootstrapping analysis to calculate the uncertainty in corner frequency and stress drop estimates. The Boatwright spectral model leads to lower stress drop estimates than the Brune spectral model due to the limited bandwidth and fixed fall-off rates. We find that the uncertainty in the stress drop of each earthquake is generally much smaller than the range of stress drop estimates. The value and range of these stress drops of the potentially induced earthquakes are similar to tectonic earthquakes in California reported by other spectral ratio studies. Our results highlight the value of spectral ratio analyses of earthquakes in the central United States.

  9. The Canterbury Tales: Lessons from the Canterbury Earthquake Sequence to Inform Better Public Communication Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    McBride, S.; Tilley, E. N.; Johnston, D. M.; Becker, J.; Orchiston, C.

    2015-12-01

    This research evaluates the public education earthquake information prior to the Canterbury Earthquake sequence (2010-present), and examines communication learnings to create recommendations for improvement in implementation for these types of campaigns in future. The research comes from a practitioner perspective of someone who worked on these campaigns in Canterbury prior to the Earthquake Sequence and who also was the Public Information Manager Second in Command during the earthquake response in February 2011. Documents, specifically those addressing seismic risk, that were created prior to the earthquake sequence, were analyzed, using a "best practice matrix" created by the researcher, for how closely these aligned to best practice academic research. Readability tests and word counts are also employed to assist with triangulation of the data as was practitioner involvement. This research also outlines the lessons learned by practitioners and explores their experiences in regards to creating these materials and how they perceive these now, given all that has happened since the inception of the booklets. The findings from the research showed these documents lacked many of the attributes of best practice. The overly long, jargon filled text had little positive outcome expectancy messages. This probably would have failed to persuade anyone that earthquakes were a real threat in Canterbury. Paradoxically, it is likely these booklets may have created fatalism in publics who read the booklets. While the overall intention was positive, for scientists to explain earthquakes, tsunami, landslides and other risks to encourage the public to prepare for these events, the implementation could be greatly improved. This final component of the research highlights points of improvement for implementation for more successful campaigns in future. The importance of preparedness and science information campaigns can be not only in preparing the population but also into development of

  10. Breaking barriers and halting rupture: the 2016 Amatrice-Visso-Castelluccio earthquake sequence, central Italy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gregory, L. C.; Walters, R. J.; Wedmore, L. N. J.; Craig, T. J.; McCaffrey, K. J. W.; Wilkinson, M. W.; Livio, F.; Michetti, A.; Goodall, H.; Li, Z.; Chen, J.; De Martini, P. M.

    2017-12-01

    In 2016 the Central Italian Apennines was struck by a sequence of normal faulting earthquakes that ruptured in three separate events on the 24th August (Mw 6.2), the 26th Oct (Mw 6.1), and the 30th Oct (Mw 6.6). We reveal the complex nature of the individual events and the time-evolution of the sequence using multiple datasets. We will present an overview of the results from field geology, satellite geodesy, GNSS (including low-cost short baseline installations), and terrestrial laser scanning (TLS). Sequences of earthquakes of mid to high magnitude 6 are common in historical and seismological records in Italy and other similar tectonic settings globally. Multi-fault rupture during these sequences can occur in seconds, as in the M 6.9 1980 Irpinia earthquake, or can span days, months, or years (e.g. the 1703 Norcia-L'Aquila sequence). It is critical to determine why the causative faults in the 2016 sequence did not rupture simultaneously, and how this relates to fault segmentation and structural barriers. This is the first sequence of this kind to be observed using modern geodetic techniques, and only with all of the datasets combined can we begin to understand how and why the sequence evolved in time and space. We show that earthquake rupture both broke through structural barriers that were thought to exist, but was also inhibited by a previously unknown structure. We will also discuss the logistical challenges in generating datasets on the time-evolving sequence, and show how rapid response and international collaboration within the Open EMERGEO Working Group was critical for gaining a complete picture of the ongoing activity.

  11. Investigation of an Unusually Shallow Earthquake Sequence in Mogul, NV from a Discrimination Perspective

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-08-31

    Figure 14), is about 10 km epicentral distance from the Mogul sequence, and on moderately stiff volcanic rock. As may be observed, station RFNV has a...slip and high-frequency radiation of the 2010 El Mayor-Cucapah, Mexico earthquake, J. Geophys. Res. Solid Earth, 118, pp. 1546- 1555, doi:10.1002/jgrb

  12. Source characteristics of the Fairview, OK, earthquake sequence and its relationship to industrial activities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yeck, W. L.; Weingarten, M.; Benz, H.; McNamara, D. E.; Herrmann, R. B.; Rubinstein, J. L.; Earle, P. S.; Bergman, E.

    2016-12-01

    We characterize the spatio-temporal patterns of seismicity surrounding the February 13, 2016, Mw 5.1 Fairview, Oklahoma earthquake. This earthquake sequence accounts for the largest moment release in the central and eastern US since the November 06, 2011 Mw 5.6 Prague, OK earthquake sequence. To improve the location accuracy of the sequence and measure near-source ground motions, the United States Geological Survey (USGS) deployed eight seismometers and accelerometers in the epicentral region. With the added depth control from these stations, we show that earthquakes primarily occur in the Precambrian basement, at depths of 6-10 km below sea level. The Mw 5.1 mainshock, the largest event in the cluster, locates near the base of the seismicity. Relocated aftershocks delineate a partially unmapped, 14-km-long fault segment that strikes approximately N40°E, partially bridging the gap between previously mapped basement faults to the southwest and northeast. Gas production and hydraulic fracking data from the region show no evidence that either of these activities correlates spatio-temporally with the Fairview sequence. Instead, we suggest that a series of high-rate, Arbuckle injection wells (> 300,000 bbls/month) 8-25 km northeast of this sequence pressurized the reservoir in the far field. Regional injection into the Arbuckle formation increased 7-fold in the 24 months before the initiation of the sequence with some wells operating at rates greater than 1 million barrels per month. Seismicity in the proximity of the high-rate wells is diffuse whilst the energetic Fairview sequence occurs more than 15 km from this region. Our observations point to the critical role pre-existing geologic structures play in the occurrence of large induced earthquakes. This study demonstrates the need for a better understanding of the role of far-field pressurization. High-quality data sets such as this facilitate the USGS mission to improve earthquake hazard identification, especially

  13. Characterizing Aftershock Sequences of the Recent Strong Earthquakes in Central Italy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kossobokov, Vladimir G.; Nekrasova, Anastasia K.

    2017-10-01

    The recent strong earthquakes in Central Italy allow for a comparative analysis of their aftershocks from the viewpoint of the Unified Scaling Law for Earthquakes, USLE, which generalizes the Gutenberg-Richter relationship making use of naturally fractal distribution of earthquake sources of different size in a seismic region. In particular, we consider aftershocks as a sequence of avalanches in self-organized system of blocks-and-faults of the Earth lithosphere, each aftershock series characterized with the distribution of the USLE control parameter, η. We found the existence, in a long-term, of different, intermittent levels of rather steady seismic activity characterized with a near constant value of η, which switch, in mid-term, at times of transition associated with catastrophic events. On such a transition, seismic activity may follow different scenarios with inter-event time scaling of different kind, including constant, logarithmic, power law, exponential rise/decay or a mixture of those as observed in the case of the ongoing one associated with the three strong earthquakes in 2016. Evidently, our results do not support the presence of universality of seismic energy release, while providing constraints on modelling seismic sequences for earthquake physicists and supplying decision makers with information for improving local seismic hazard assessments.

  14. The Accidental Spokesperson - Science Communication during the 2010-2011 Christchurch, NZ Earthquake Sequence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Furlong, K. P.

    2015-12-01

    Beginning September 4, 2010, with a Mw 7.1 earthquake, a multi-year earthquake sequence changed life in Canterbury NZ. Information communicated by a core group of university-based earthquake scientists provided accessible information to the general public, the press, and policy makers. Although at the start of this prolonged sequence, no one anticipated its longevity nor its impact, this initial (and largest) event did catalyze a demand from the public and policy makers for information and led to some important lessons in how to communicate science to a broad audience as an event unfolds and when it is personally important to the general public. Earthquakes are neither new nor rare to New Zealand, but the Christchurch area was seen as likely suffering only from the far-field effects of a major earthquake on the Alpine Fault or Marlborough fault system. Policy makers had planned and expected that another city such as Wellington would be where they would need to respond. As a visiting faculty at the University of Canterbury, with expertise in earthquake science, I was entrained and engaged in the response - both the scientific and communication aspects. It soon became clear that formal press releases and statements from government ministries and agencies did little to address the questions and uncertainties that the public, the press, and even the policy makers had. Rather, a series of public lectures, broad ranging discussions with the media (both print and radio/television), and OpEd pieces provided by this small group of earthquake focused faculty at the University of Canterbury provided the background information, best estimates of what could occur in the future, and why Earth was acting as it was. This filled a critical gap in science information going to the public, and helped build a level of trust in the public that became critically needed after the situation escalated with subsequent damaging events through early-mid 2011, and onward.

  15. Identification and characterization of earthquake clusters: a comparative analysis for selected sequences in Italy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peresan, Antonella; Gentili, Stefania

    2017-04-01

    Identification and statistical characterization of seismic clusters may provide useful insights about the features of seismic energy release and their relation to physical properties of the crust within a given region. Moreover, a number of studies based on spatio-temporal analysis of main-shocks occurrence require preliminary declustering of the earthquake catalogs. Since various methods, relying on different physical/statistical assumptions, may lead to diverse classifications of earthquakes into main events and related events, we aim to investigate the classification differences among different declustering techniques. Accordingly, a formal selection and comparative analysis of earthquake clusters is carried out for the most relevant earthquakes in North-Eastern Italy, as reported in the local OGS-CRS bulletins, compiled at the National Institute of Oceanography and Experimental Geophysics since 1977. The comparison is then extended to selected earthquake sequences associated with a different seismotectonic setting, namely to events that occurred in the region struck by the recent Central Italy destructive earthquakes, making use of INGV data. Various techniques, ranging from classical space-time windows methods to ad hoc manual identification of aftershocks, are applied for detection of earthquake clusters. In particular, a statistical method based on nearest-neighbor distances of events in space-time-energy domain, is considered. Results from clusters identification by the nearest-neighbor method turn out quite robust with respect to the time span of the input catalogue, as well as to minimum magnitude cutoff. The identified clusters for the largest events reported in North-Eastern Italy since 1977 are well consistent with those reported in earlier studies, which were aimed at detailed manual aftershocks identification. The study shows that the data-driven approach, based on the nearest-neighbor distances, can be satisfactorily applied to decompose the seismic

  16. Temporal Characteristics of Recent Aftershock Sequences from Moderate-sized Earthquakes of Onshore Japan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mori, J. J.

    2017-12-01

    Spatial and temporal distributions of aftershocks were studied for 9 recent moderate earthquakes that occurred at shallow depth onshore of Japan and were well recorded by the regional networks. These events are the 2000 Western Tottori (Mw 6.7), 2004 Niigata Chuetsu (Mw 6.6), 2005 Fukuoka (Mw 6.6), 2007 Noto Peninsula (Mw 6.7), 2007 Niigata Chuetsu-oki (Mw 6.8), 2008 Iwate-Miyagi-ken (Mw 6.8), and 2017 Kumamoto (Mw6.2). All of these earthquakes are approximately of similar size, however, the rates of aftershock activity are quite different. The 2004 Niigata and 2008 Iwate-Miyagi earthquakes have significantly more aftershocks than the other 7 events. In the spatial locations of the aftershocks, these two earthquakes have more complex spatial distributions with more aftershocks occurring away from the mainshock fault plane. There appears to be a correlation between the rate of aftershock activity and the spatial complexity of the locations. The sequences with higher rates of aftershock occurrence may be associated with aftershocks triggered in a volume around the mainshock. In contrast, for the other sequences, aftershocks occur mainly in a planar pattern close to the mainshock fault plane. The early time sequence of the aftershocks for these events were also examined. Using continuously recorded seismograms from nearby borehole stations of Hi-net, aftershocks were identified and counted. From about one minute following the mainshock origin time, we estimate that we can identify aftershocks with magnitudes down to Mj 3.5. For the first few minutes the rate of aftershocks is quite similar for all of the mainshocks. The higher rate of aftershocks for the 2004 Niigata and 2008 Iwate-Miyagi earthquakes appears to begin about 10 minutes after the mainshock. This suggests that the enhanced triggering of aftershock for these two earthquakes may be caused by some changes in the aftershock region several minutes after the mainshock.

  17. Shear-wave velocity compilation for Northridge strong-motion recording sites

    Science.gov (United States)

    Borcherdt, Roger D.; Fumal, Thomas E.

    2002-01-01

    Borehole and other geotechnical information collected at the strong-motion recording sites of the Northridge earthquake of January 17, 1994 provide an important new basis for the characterization of local site conditions. These geotechnical data, when combined with analysis of strong-motion recordings, provide an empirical basis to evaluate site coefficients used in current versions of US building codes. Shear-wave-velocity estimates to a depth of 30 meters are derived for 176 strong-motion recording sites. The estimates are based on borehole shear-velocity logs, physical property logs, correlations with physical properties and digital geologic maps. Surface-wave velocity measurements and standard penetration data are compiled as additional constraints. These data as compiled from a variety of databases are presented via GIS maps and corresponding tables to facilitate use by other investigators.

  18. Urban seismology - Northridge aftershocks recorded by multi-scale arrays of portable digital seismographs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meremonte, M.; Frankel, A.; Cranswick, E.; Carver, D.; Worley, D.

    1996-01-01

    We deployed portable digital seismographs in the San Fernando Valley (SFV), the Los Angeles basin (LAB), and surrounding hills to record aftershocks of the 17 January 1994 Northridge California earthquake. The purpose of the deployment was to investigate factors relevant to seismic zonation in urban areas, such as site amplification, sedimentary basin effects, and the variability of ground motion over short baselines. We placed seismographs at 47 sites (not all concurrently) and recorded about 290 earthquakes with magnitudes up to 5.1 at five stations or more. We deployed widely spaced stations for profiles across the San Fernando Valley, as well as five dense arrays (apertures of 200 to 500 m) in areas of high damage, such as the collapsed Interstate 10 overpass, Sherman Oaks, and the collapsed parking garage at CalState Northridge. Aftershock data analysis indicates a correlation of site amplification with mainshock damage. We found several cases where the site amplification depended on the azimuth of the aftershock, possibly indicating focusing from basin structures. For the parking garage array, we found large ground-motion variabilities (a factor of 2) over 200-m distances for sites on the same mapped soil unit. Array analysis of the aftershock seismograms demonstrates that sizable arrivals after the direct 5 waves consist of surface waves traveling from the same azimuth as that of the epicenter. These surface waves increase the duration of motions and can have frequencies as high as about 4 Hz. For the events studied here, we do not observe large arrivals reflected from the southern edge of the San Fernando Valley.

  19. Statistical parameters of Bhuj earthquake sequence of January 26th ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Sudden occurrence of the main shock without any foreshock in the same tectonic system is a unique feature of this sequence. The -value (0.86), value of 0-1 ... M A Shaik1 Sanjay Srivastava1. Seismology Unit, Engineering Geology Division, Gujarat Engineering Research Institute, Race Course, Vadodara 390 007 ...

  20. Investigations on the aftershock sequence of the great Assam earthquake of August 15, 1950

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V. K. GAUR

    1974-06-01

    Full Text Available The strain release curve of the aftershock sequence of the great Assam earthquake of August 15, 1950 exhibits three linear segments. A secondary aftershock sequence has also been reported; the strain release curve in this case is also linear. The b value, using the maximum likelihood method of Utsu, for the sequence is 0.52 ± 0.095. The fault plane solution shows that the fault strikes almost cast-west and dips northward at an angle of 80°; the motion is predominently strike slip (right lateral type. The spatial distribution of aftershocks shows two main centers of activity at the two ends of the probable fault.

  1. Spatial and Temporal Stress Drop Variations of the 2011 Tohoku Earthquake Sequence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miyake, H.

    2013-12-01

    The 2011 Tohoku earthquake sequence consists of foreshocks, mainshock, aftershocks, and repeating earthquakes. To quantify spatial and temporal stress drop variations is important for understanding M9-class megathrust earthquakes. Variability and spatial and temporal pattern of stress drop is a basic information for rupture dynamics as well as useful to source modeling. As pointed in the ground motion prediction equations by Campbell and Bozorgnia [2008, Earthquake Spectra], mainshock-aftershock pairs often provide significant decrease of stress drop. We here focus strong motion records before and after the Tohoku earthquake, and analyze source spectral ratios considering azimuth- and distance dependency [Miyake et al., 2001, GRL]. Due to the limitation of station locations on land, spatial and temporal stress drop variations are estimated by adjusting shifts from the omega-squared source spectral model. The adjustment is based on the stochastic Green's function simulations of source spectra considering azimuth- and distance dependency. We assumed the same Green's functions for event pairs for each station, both the propagation path and site amplification effects are cancelled out. Precise studies of spatial and temporal stress drop variations have been performed [e.g., Allmann and Shearer, 2007, JGR], this study targets the relations between stress drop vs. progression of slow slip prior to the Tohoku earthquake by Kato et al. [2012, Science] and plate structures. Acknowledgement: This study is partly supported by ERI Joint Research (2013-B-05). We used the JMA unified earthquake catalogue and K-NET, KiK-net, and F-net data provided by NIED.

  2. Finding positives after disaster: Insights from nurses following the 2010-2011 Canterbury, NZ earthquake sequence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johal, Sarbjit S; Mounsey, Zoe R

    2015-11-01

    This paper identifies positive aspects of nurse experiences during the Canterbury 2010-2011 earthquake sequence and subsequent recovery process. Qualitative semi-structured interviews were undertaken with 11 nurses from the Christchurch area to explore the challenges faced by the nurses during and following the earthquakes. The interviews took place three years after the start of the earthquake experience to enable exploration of the longer term recovery process. The interview transcripts were analysed and coded using a grounded theory approach. The data analysis identified that despite the many challenges faced by the nurses during and following the earthquakes they were able to identify positives from their experience. A number of themes were identified that are related to posttraumatic growth, including; improvement in relationships with others, change in perspective/values, changed views of self and acknowledgement of the value of the experience. The research indicates that nurses were able to identify positive aspects of their experiences of the earthquakes and recovery process, suggesting that both positive and negative impacts on wellbeing can co-exist. These insights have value for employers designing support processes following disasters as focusing on positive elements could enhance nurse wellbeing during stressful times. Copyright © 2015 College of Emergency Nursing Australasia Ltd. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  3. The Preliminary Study of the 4 March 2010 Mw 6.3 Jiasian, Taiwan Earthquake Sequence

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hsin-Hua Huang

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available On 4 March 2010, an inland Mw 6.3 earthquake occurred near the town of Jiasian in Kaohsiung County, Taiwan causing large ground shaking and extensive damage. In this study, we integrate the records from the Central Weather Bureau Seismic Network (CWBSN and Taiwan Strong Motion Instrumentation Program (TSMIP to obtain the relocated earthquake sequence and its first-motion focal mechanisms. This dataset offers us precise and reliable results which suggest a focal depth of 23 km and a possible fault plane of strike 313¢X, dip 41¢X, and rake 42¢X for the Jiasian earthquake. This fault plane significantly differs from the N-S striking Chaochou Fault (CCF as well as the principal trend of Taiwan orogenic belt, and should be an undiscovered fault in southern Taiwan. The relocated Jiasian earthquake sequence initiating from the 23-km-deep mainshock and terminating at around 10 km in depth also indicates it is a blind fault. Peak ground acceleration (PGA and peak ground velocity (PGV recorded by the TSMIP stations reveal a distinct NW-SE-shape pattern from the epicenter area toward the Chiayi region, likely due to the directivity and site effects. Such phenomena should be considered for future regional hazard assessments.

  4. Analysis of the 2005-2016 Earthquake Sequence in Northern Iran Using the Visibility Graph Method

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khoshnevis, Naeem; Taborda, Ricardo; Azizzadeh-Roodpish, Shima; Telesca, Luciano

    2017-11-01

    We present an analysis of the seismicity of northern Iran in the period between 2005 and 2016 using a recently introduced method based on concepts of graph theory. The method relies on the inter-event visibility defined in terms of a connectivity degree parameter, k, which is correlated with the earthquake magnitude, M. Previous studies show that the slope m of the line fitting the k- M plot by the least squares method also observes a relationship with the b value from the Gutenberg-Richter law, thus rendering the graph analysis useful to examine the seismicity of a region. These correlations seem to hold for the analysis of relatively small sequences of earthquakes, offering the possibility of studying seismicity parameters in time. We apply this approach to the case of the seismicity of northern Iran, using an earthquake catalog for the tectonic seismic regions of Azerbaijan, Alborz, and Kopeh Dagh. We use results drawn for this region with the visibility graph approach in combination with results from other similar studies to further improve the universal relationship between m and b, and show that the visibility graph approach can be considered as a valid alternative for analyzing regional seismicity properties and earthquake sequences.

  5. Evaluation and implementation of an improved methodology for earthquake ground response analysis : uniform treatment source, path and site effects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2008-12-01

    Shortly after the 1994 Northridge Earthquake, Caltrans geotechnical engineers charged with developing site-specific : response spectra for high priority California bridges initiated a research project aimed at broadening their perspective : from simp...

  6. Rupture Processes of the 2013-14 Minab Earthquake Sequence, Iran

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kintner, Jonas A.; Ammon, Charles J.; Cleveland, K. Michael; Herman, Matthew

    2018-03-01

    We constrain epicentroid locations, magnitudes, and depths of moderate-magnitude earthquakes in the 2013-2014 Minab sequence using surface-wave cross correlations, surface-wave spectra, and teleseismic body-wave modeling. We estimate precise relative locations of fifty-four MW ≥ 3.8 earthquakes using 48,409 teleseismic, intermediate-period Rayleigh and Love-wave cross-correlation measurements. To reduce significant regional biases in our relative locations, we shift the relative locations to align the MW 6.2 mainshock centroid to a location derived from an independent InSAR fault model. Our relocations suggest that the events lie along a roughly east-west trend that is consistent with the faulting geometry in the GCMT catalog. The results support previous studies that suggest the sequence consists of left-lateral strain release, but better defines the mainshock fault length and shows that most of the MW ≥ 5.0 aftershocks occurred on one or two similarly-oriented structures. We also show that aftershock activity migrated westward along strike, away from the mainshock, suggesting that Coulomb stress transfer played a role in the fault failure. We estimate the magnitudes of the relocated events using surface-wave cross-correlation amplitudes and find good agreement with the GCMT moment magnitudes for the larger events, and under-estimation of small-event size by catalog MS. In addition to clarifying details of the Minab sequence, the results demonstrate that even in tectonically complex regions, relative relocation using teleseismic surface waves greatly improves the precision of relative earthquake epicentroid locations and can facilitate detailed tectonic analyses of remote earthquake sequences.

  7. Earthquake static stress transfer in the 2013 Gulf of Valencia (Spain seismic sequence

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L. Saló

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available On 24 September 2013, an Ml 3.6 earthquake struck in the Gulf of Valencia (Spain near the Mediterranean coast of Castelló, roughly 1 week after gas injections conducted in the area to develop underground gas storage had been halted. The event, felt by the nearby population, led to a sequence build-up of felt events which reached a maximum of Ml 4.3 on 2 October.Here, we study the role of static stress transfer as an earthquake-triggering mechanism during the main phase of the sequence, as expressed by the eight felt events. By means of the Coulomb failure function, cumulative static stress changes are quantified on fault planes derived from focal mechanism solutions (which act as both source and receiver faults and on the previously mapped structures in the area (acting only as stress receivers in our modeling. Results suggest that static stress transfer played a destabilizing role and point towards an SE-dipping structure underlying the reservoir (or various with analogous geometry that was most likely activated during the sequence. One of the previously mapped faults could be geometrically compatible, yet our study supports deeper sources. Based on this approach, the influence of the main events in the occurrence of future and potentially damaging earthquakes in the area would not be significant.

  8. Ongoing adverse mental health impact of the earthquake sequence in Christchurch, New Zealand.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spittlehouse, Janet K; Joyce, Peter R; Vierck, Esther; Schluter, Philip J; Pearson, John F

    2014-08-01

    In September 2010 Christchurch, New Zealand, was struck by a 7.1 magnitude earthquake, followed by a prolonged sequence of significant aftershocks including a fatal aftershock in February 2011. Christchurch City has experienced widespread damage, ongoing disruption and building demolitions resulting in many difficulties for the residents of the Christchurch area. We explore what impact the earthquakes have had on the mental and physical health of a random sample of 50-year-olds who live in the Christchurch area. The 295 participants were selected from the electoral rolls for participation in the CHALICE study, a longitudinal study of ageing. Self-reported health status was assessed using the standardised Short Form 36 version 2 health survey (SF-36v2), a 36-item questionnaire, and results from the eight subscales compared to a national health survey. Mood disorders were assessed and the results were compared to other local and national studies. Since the onset of the earthquakes and throughout the study period, participating middle-aged Christchurch residents have mean SF-36v2 scores significantly lower than population norms in the mental health, vitality, social functioning and role-emotional subscales (Cohen's d ranged from -0.270 to -0.357, all p earthquake survivors compared to 5.1% and 3.7% in other historical, local and national surveys. Similarly, bipolar disorder prevalence was 2.8% in the earthquake survivors compared to 2.2% and 1.4% in other studies. Eighteen months after the first earthquake the significant adverse impact on mental health clearly continues. The ongoing provision of additional mental health services and consideration of these adverse mental health effects in relation to other social policies remains necessary and fundamental. © The Royal Australian and New Zealand College of Psychiatrists 2014.

  9. Earthquake Preparedness 101: Guidelines for Colleges and Universities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    California Governor's Office, Los Angeles. Office of Emergency Services.

    This document presents guidelines on emergency response and business recovery for colleges and universities in the event of an earthquake. The guidelines, developed by California institutions and revised based on experience with the Northridge earthquake, are provided under the following headings: (1) "To the President or Chancellor";…

  10. Lessons learned from the 2016 Kumamoto earthquake: Building damages and behavior of seismically isolated buildings

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morita, Keiko; Takayama, Mineo

    2017-10-01

    Powerful earthquakes stuck Kumamoto and Oita Prefectures in Kyushu, Japan. It began with the Magnitude 6.5 foreshock at 21:26 JST 14 April, followed by the Magnitude 7.3 mainshock at 1:25 JST 16 April, 2016. The sequence earthquakes also involved more than 1700 perceptible earthquakes as of 13 June. The entire sequence was named the 2016 Kumamoto earthquake by the Japan Meteorological Agency. Thousands of buildings and many roads were damaged, and landslides occurred. The Japanese building standard law is revised in 1981. Structural damages were concentrated on buildings constructed prior to 1981. The area of Mashiki and Southern Aso were most badly affected, especially wooden houses extremely damaged. In Japan, Prof. Hideyuki Tada (title at the time) undertook research on laminated rubber bearings in 1978, and put it into practical use in 1981. The single family house at Yachiyodai, Chiba Prefecture is completed in 1983, it's the first seismically isolated building which is installed laminated rubber bearings in Japan. Afterward, this system is gradually adopted to mainly office buildings, like a research laboratory, a hospital, a computer center and other offices. In the 1994 Northridge earthquake, the 1995 Kobe earthquake and 2011 Tohoku earthquake, seismically isolated buildings improve these good performances, and recently number of the buildings have increased, mainly high risk area of earthquakes. Many people believed that Kumamoto was a low risk area. But there were 24 seismically isolated buildings in Kumamoto Prefecture at the time. The seismically isolated buildings indicated excellent performances during the earthquakes. They protected people, buildings and other important facilities from damages caused by the earthquake. The purpose of this paper is to discuss lessons learned from the 2016 Kumamoto earthquake and behavior of seismically isolated buildings in the earthquake.

  11. Earthquakes

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Centers Evacuation Center Play Areas Animals in Public Evacuation Centers Pet Shelters Interim Guidelines for Animal Health and Control of Disease Transmission in Pet Shelters Protect Your Pets Earthquakes Language: English (US) Español (Spanish) Recommend on Facebook ...

  12. Climate Science Program at California State University, Northridge

    Science.gov (United States)

    Steele Cox, H.; Klein, D.; Cadavid, A. C.; Foley, B.

    2012-12-01

    Due to its interdisciplinary nature, climate science poses wide-ranging challenges for science and mathematics students seeking careers in this field. There is a compelling need for universities to provide coherent programs in climate science in order to train future climate scientists. With funding from NASA Innovations in Climate Education (NICE), California State University, Northridge (CSUN), is creating the CSUN Climate Science Program. An interdisciplinary team of faculty members is working in collaboration with UCLA, Santa Monica College and NASA/JPL partners to create a new curriculum in climate science. The resulting sequence of climate science courses, or Pathway for studying the Mathematics of Climate Change (PMCC), is integrated into a Bachelor of Science degree program in the Applied Mathematical Sciences offered by the Mathematics Department at CSUN. The PMCC consists of courses offered by the departments of Mathematics, Physics, and Geography and is designed to prepare students for Ph.D. programs in technical fields relevant to global climate change and related careers. The students who choose to follow this program will be guided to enroll in the following sequence of courses for their 12 units of upper division electives: 1) A newly created course junior level course, Math 396CL, in applied mathematics which will introduce students to applications of vector calculus and differential equations to the study of thermodynamics and atmospheric dynamics. 2) An already existing course, Math 483, with new content on mathematical modeling specialized for this program; 3) An improved version of Phys 595CL on the mathematics and physics of climate change with emphasis on Radiative Transfer; 4) A choice of Geog 407 on Remote Sensing or Geog 416 on Climate Change with updated content to train the students in the analysis of satellite data obtained with the NASA Earth Observing System and instruction in the analysis of data obtained within a Geographical

  13. Seismotectonic framework of the 2010 February 27 Mw 8.8 Maule, Chile earthquake sequence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hayes, Gavin P.; Bergman, Eric; Johnson, Kendra J.; Benz, Harley M.; Brown, Lucy; Meltzer, Anne S.

    2013-01-01

    After the 2010 Mw 8.8 Maule earthquake, an international collaboration involving teams and instruments from Chile, the US, the UK, France and Germany established the International Maule Aftershock Deployment temporary network over the source region of the event to facilitate detailed, open-access studies of the aftershock sequence. Using data from the first 9-months of this deployment, we have analyzed the detailed spatial distribution of over 2500 well-recorded aftershocks. All earthquakes have been relocated using a hypocentral decomposition algorithm to study the details of and uncertainties in both their relative and absolute locations. We have computed regional moment tensor solutions for the largest of these events to produce a catalogue of 465 mechanisms, and have used all of these data to study the spatial distribution of the aftershock sequence with respect to the Chilean megathrust. We refine models of co-seismic slip distribution of the Maule earthquake, and show how small changes in fault geometries assumed in teleseismic finite fault modelling significantly improve fits to regional GPS data, implying that the accuracy of rapid teleseismic fault models can be substantially improved by consideration of existing fault geometry model databases. We interpret all of these data in an integrated seismotectonic framework for the Maule earthquake rupture and its aftershock sequence, and discuss the relationships between co-seismic rupture and aftershock distributions. While the majority of aftershocks are interplate thrust events located away from regions of maximum co-seismic slip, interesting clusters of aftershocks are identified in the lower plate at both ends of the main shock rupture, implying internal deformation of the slab in response to large slip on the plate boundary interface. We also perform Coulomb stress transfer calculations to compare aftershock locations and mechanisms to static stress changes following the Maule rupture. Without the

  14. Multifractal analysis of 2001 Mw 7 . 7 Bhuj earthquake sequence in Gujarat, Western India

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aggarwal, Sandeep Kumar; Pastén, Denisse; Khan, Prosanta Kumar

    2017-12-01

    The 2001 Mw 7 . 7 Bhuj mainshock seismic sequence in the Kachchh area, occurring during 2001 to 2012, has been analyzed using mono-fractal and multi-fractal dimension spectrum analysis technique. This region was characterized by frequent moderate shocks of Mw ≥ 5 . 0 for more than a decade since the occurrence of 2001 Bhuj earthquake. The present study is therefore important for precursory analysis using this sequence. The selected long-sequence has been investigated first time for completeness magnitude Mc 3.0 using the maximum curvature method. Multi-fractal Dq spectrum (Dq ∼ q) analysis was carried out using effective window-length of 200 earthquakes with a moving window of 20 events overlapped by 180 events. The robustness of the analysis has been tested by considering the magnitude completeness correction term of 0.2 to Mc 3.0 as Mc 3.2 and we have tested the error in the calculus of Dq for each magnitude threshold. On the other hand, the stability of the analysis has been investigated down to the minimum magnitude of Mw ≥ 2 . 6 in the sequence. The analysis shows the multi-fractal dimension spectrum Dq decreases with increasing of clustering of events with time before a moderate magnitude earthquake in the sequence, which alternatively accounts for non-randomness in the spatial distribution of epicenters and its self-organized criticality. Similar behavior is ubiquitous elsewhere around the globe, and warns for proximity of a damaging seismic event in an area. OS: Please confirm math roman or italics in abs.

  15. Romanian crustal earthquake sequences: evidence for space and time clustering in correlation with seismic source properties

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Popescu, E.; Popa, M.; Radulian, M.

    2002-01-01

    The study of seismic sequences is important from both scientific point of view, and its socio-economical impact on human society. In this paper we analyze the crustal earthquake sequences in correlation with the seismogenic zones delimited on the Romanian territory using geological and tectonic information available. We consider on one hand the sequences typical for the Carpathians foreland region (Ramnicu Sarat, Vrancioaia and Sinaia seismic zones), which are associated with the Vrancea subduction process and, on the other hand the sequences typical for the contact between the Pannonian Basin and Carpathians orogen (Banat seismic zone). To analyze the seismicity and source properties, we applied the fractal statistics and relative methods such as spectral ratio and deconvolution with the empirical Green's functions. On the basis of the retrieved source parameters for small and moderate size events the scaling relations for the characteristic properties of the seismic source are estimated. The scaling and earthquake clustering properties are correlated with the geological and rheological properties of the studied seismic areas. (authors)

  16. A methodology for analyzing precursors to earthquake-initiated and fire-initiated accident sequences

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Budnitz, R.J.; Lambert, H.E.; Apostolakis, G. [and others

    1998-04-01

    This report covers work to develop a methodology for analyzing precursors to both earthquake-initiated and fire-initiated accidents at commercial nuclear power plants. Currently, the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission sponsors a large ongoing project, the Accident Sequence Precursor project, to analyze the safety significance of other types of accident precursors, such as those arising from internally-initiated transients and pipe breaks, but earthquakes and fires are not within the current scope. The results of this project are that: (1) an overall step-by-step methodology has been developed for precursors to both fire-initiated and seismic-initiated potential accidents; (2) some stylized case-study examples are provided to demonstrate how the fully-developed methodology works in practice, and (3) a generic seismic-fragility date base for equipment is provided for use in seismic-precursors analyses. 44 refs., 23 figs., 16 tabs.

  17. A methodology for analyzing precursors to earthquake-initiated and fire-initiated accident sequences

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Budnitz, R.J.; Lambert, H.E.; Apostolakis, G.

    1998-04-01

    This report covers work to develop a methodology for analyzing precursors to both earthquake-initiated and fire-initiated accidents at commercial nuclear power plants. Currently, the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission sponsors a large ongoing project, the Accident Sequence Precursor project, to analyze the safety significance of other types of accident precursors, such as those arising from internally-initiated transients and pipe breaks, but earthquakes and fires are not within the current scope. The results of this project are that: (1) an overall step-by-step methodology has been developed for precursors to both fire-initiated and seismic-initiated potential accidents; (2) some stylized case-study examples are provided to demonstrate how the fully-developed methodology works in practice, and (3) a generic seismic-fragility date base for equipment is provided for use in seismic-precursors analyses. 44 refs., 23 figs., 16 tabs

  18. Fault healing and earthquake spectra from stick slip sequences in the laboratory and on active faults

    Science.gov (United States)

    McLaskey, G. C.; Glaser, S. D.; Thomas, A.; Burgmann, R.

    2011-12-01

    Repeating earthquake sequences (RES) are thought to occur on isolated patches of a fault that fail in repeated stick-slip fashion. RES enable researchers to study the effect of variations in earthquake recurrence time and the relationship between fault healing and earthquake generation. Fault healing is thought to be the physical process responsible for the 'state' variable in widely used rate- and state-dependent friction equations. We analyze RES created in laboratory stick slip experiments on a direct shear apparatus instrumented with an array of very high frequency (1KHz - 1MHz) displacement sensors. Tests are conducted on the model material polymethylmethacrylate (PMMA). While frictional properties of this glassy polymer can be characterized with the rate- and state- dependent friction laws, the rate of healing in PMMA is higher than room temperature rock. Our experiments show that in addition to a modest increase in fault strength and stress drop with increasing healing time, there are distinct spectral changes in the recorded laboratory earthquakes. Using the impact of a tiny sphere on the surface of the test specimen as a known source calibration function, we are able to remove the instrument and apparatus response from recorded signals so that the source spectrum of the laboratory earthquakes can be accurately estimated. The rupture of a fault that was allowed to heal produces a laboratory earthquake with increased high frequency content compared to one produced by a fault which has had less time to heal. These laboratory results are supported by observations of RES on the Calaveras and San Andreas faults, which show similar spectral changes when recurrence time is perturbed by a nearby large earthquake. Healing is typically attributed to a creep-like relaxation of the material which causes the true area of contact of interacting asperity populations to increase with time in a quasi-logarithmic way. The increase in high frequency seismicity shown here

  19. Site amplification in Wellington city, New Zealand, determined from analysis of recent earthquake sequences

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaiser, A. E.; Francois-Holden, C.; Benites, R. A.

    2016-12-01

    New Zealand's capital city of Wellington lies astride the Pacific-Australian plate boundary in an area of high seismic hazard. Several large crustal faults capable of generating earthquakes of magnitude >7 cut through the region, and the subduction interface lies at relatively shallow depths ( 25 km) below. The central city is situated on an alluvial basin with variable bedrock depth capable of generating complex 3D site amplification. Furthermore, much of the rest of the city is spread across high topographic relief with the potential for significant local topographic and basin edge effects. In 2013, the Cook Strait earthquake sequence produced the highest ground shaking experienced in the region in recent decades, and included two earthquakes of Mw 6.6 situated approximately 50km from Wellington. Peak ground accelerations recorded during the sequence ranged up to 0.2g during both major events and spectral accelerations recorded in the central city ranged up to approximately 20-30% of the current building design level. Ground motions during the Cook Strait sequence in Wellington were highly variable and strongly dependent on the local site conditions. We use this new data to present an analysis of local ground motion effects in terms of amplification and polarization using horizontal-to-vertical and site-to-reference spectral ratios calculated for a range of Wellington stations spanning rock to deep soil conditions. We also investigate horizontal and vertical site amplification using a spectral inversion technique to separate source, path and site influences on ground motion. Our results are generally in good agreement with existing microzonation maps, however, some differences may result from the complex role of 3D bedrock and surface topography in the region.

  20. The role of INGVterremoti blog in information management during the earthquake sequence in central Italy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maurizio Pignone

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, we describe the role the INGVterremoti blog in information management during the first part of the earthquake sequence in central Italy (August 24 to September 30. In the last four years, we have been working on the INGVterremoti blog in order to provide quick updates on the ongoing seismic activity in Italy and in-depth scientific information. These include articles on specific historical earthquakes, seismic hazard, geological interpretations, source models from different type of data, effects at the surface, and so on. We have delivered information in quasi-real-time also about all the recent magnitude M≥4.0 earthquakes in Italy, the strongest events in the Mediterranean and in the world. During the 2016 central Italy, the INGVterremoti blog has continuously released information about seismic sequences with three types of posts: i updates on the ongoing seismic activity; ii reports on the activities carried out by the INGV teams in the field and any other working groups; iii in-depth scientific articles describing some specific analysis and results. All the blog posts have been shared automatically and in real time on the other social media of the INGVterremoti platform, also to counter the bad information and to fight rumors. These include Facebook, Twitter and INGVterremoti App on IOS and Android. As well, both the main INGV home page (http://www.ingv.it and the INGV earthquake portal (http://terremoti.ingv.it have published the contents of the blog on dedicated pages that were fed automatically. The work done day by day on the INGVterremoti blog has been coordinated with the INGV Press Office that has written several press releases based on the contents of the blog. Since August 24, 53 articles were published on the blog they have had more than 1.9 million views and 1 million visitors. The peak in the number of views, which was more than 800,000 in a single day, was registered on August 24, 2016, following the M 6

  1. Crustal Extensional Faulting Triggered by the 2010 Chilean Earthquake: The Pichilemu Seismic Sequence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Comte, D.; Farias, M.; Roecker, S. W.; Carrizo, D.

    2011-12-01

    The MW =8.8 south-central Chilean earthquake occurred on February 27th , 2010 is one of the largest event recorded by modern seismology. Its rupture area, located along the interplate contact between Nazca and South America was about 500 × 140 km2, striking parallel to the coast of South America and extending to about 45 km depth. Somewhat surprisingly, although there have been numerous aftershocks in the rupture zone, none of them has had a magnitude Mw greater than 6.5, except the one observed on January 2nd, 2011, almost one year after the mainshock, located in the southern edge of the rupture zone. The first largest aftershocks, (Mw=6.9 and Mw=7.0), occurred within 15 minutes of each other on 11 March 2010 within the overriding South American plate at the northern tip of the rupture zone near the city of Pichilemu. These events are part of a sequence of normal faulting activated by the Maule earthquake. The purpose of this study is to document the first well-recorded case of forearc faulting due to a subduction megathrust earthquake in the Andean region. We combine evidence from local seismicity, Global Centroid-Moment Tensor (gCMT) focal solutions, and geological-geomorphological observations to provide some context for the 11 March sequence in the framework of the 27 February megathrust. We hypothesize that the megathrust earthquake produced alterations on the stress field, enhancing fluid circulation in the forearc, which finally triggered intraplate faulting in regions of pre-existing crustal weakness. In this study, we focus on the sequence of events associated with the March 11th aftershocks, which we name the Pichilemu seismic sequence, in particular on a swarm of 350 events with M > 4 that occurred within the first 24 hours after the largest aftershocks, and the two largest subsequent events, a Mw=5.9 and a Mw=5.3 that occurred on May 2nd and May 21th, 2010 respectively. The hypocenters located in our final 3D model body-wave velocity model, define a

  2. The 2016 central Italy earthquake sequence: surface effects, fault model and triggering scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chatzipetros, Alexandros; Pavlides, Spyros; Papathanassiou, George; Sboras, Sotiris; Valkaniotis, Sotiris; Georgiadis, George

    2017-04-01

    The results of fieldwork performed during the 2016 earthquake sequence around the karstic basins of Norcia and La Piana di Castelluccio, at an altitude of 1400 m, on the Monte Vettore (altitude 2476 m) and Vettoretto, as well as the three mapped seismogenic faults, striking NNW-SSW, are presented in this paper. Surface co-seismic ruptures were observed in the Vettore and Vettoretto segment of the fault for several kilometres ( 7 km) in the August earthquakes at high altitudes, and were re-activated and expanded northwards during the October earthquakes. Coseismic ruptures and the neotectonic Mt. Vettore fault zone were modelled in detail using images acquired from specifically planned UAV (drone) flights. Ruptures, typically with displacement of up to 20 cm, were observed after the August event both in the scree and weathered mantle (elluvium), as well as the bedrock, consisting mainly of fragmented carbonate rocks with small tectonic surfaces. These fractures expanded and new ones formed during the October events, typically of displacements of up to 50 cm, although locally higher displacements of up to almost 2 m were observed. Hundreds of rock falls and landslides were mapped through satellite imagery, using pre- and post- earthquake Sentinel 2A images. Several of them were also verified in the field. Based on field mapping results and seismological information, the causative faults were modelled. The model consists of five seismogenic sources, each one associated with a strong event in the sequence. The visualisation of the seismogenic sources follows INGV's DISS standards for the Individual Seismogenic Sources (ISS) layer, while strike, dip and rake of the seismic sources are obtained from selected focal mechanisms. Based on this model, the ground deformation pattern was inferred, using Okada's dislocation solution formulae, which shows that the maximum calculated vertical displacement is 0.53 m. This is in good agreement with the statistical analysis of the

  3. The Pegasus Bay aftershock sequence of the Mw 7.1 Darfield (Canterbury), New Zealand earthquake

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ristau, John; Holden, Caroline; Kaiser, Anna; Williams, Charles; Bannister, Stephen; Fry, Bill

    2013-10-01

    The Pegasus Bay aftershock sequence is the most recent aftershock sequence of the 2010 September 3 UTC moment magnitude (Mw) 7.1 Darfield earthquake in the Canterbury region of New Zealand. The Pegasus Bay aftershock sequence began on 2011 December 23 UTC with three events of Mw 5.4-5.9 located in the offshore region of Pegasus Bay, east of Christchurch city. We present a summary of key aspects of the sequence derived using various geophysical methods. Relocations carried out using double-difference tomography show a well-defined NNE-SSW to NE-SW series of aftershocks with most of the activity occurring at depths >5 km and an average depth of ˜10 km. Regional moment tensor solutions calculated for the Pegasus Bay sequence indicate that the vast majority (45 of 53 events) are reverse-faulting events with an average P-axis azimuth of 125°. Strong-motion data inversion favours a SE-dipping fault plane for the largest event (Mw 5.9) with a slip patch of 18 km × 15 km and a maximum slip of 0.8 m at 3.5 km depth. Peak ground accelerations ranging up to 0.98 g on the vertical component were recorded during the sequence, and the largest event produced horizontal accelerations of 0.2-0.4 g in the Christchurch central business district. Apparent stress estimates for the two largest events are 1.1 MPa (Mw 5.9) and 0.2 MPa (Mw 5.8), which are compatible with global averages, although lower than other large events in the Canterbury aftershock sequence. Coulomb stress analysis indicates that previous large earthquakes in the Canterbury sequence generate Coulomb stress increases for the two events only at relatively shallow depths (3-5 km). At greater depths, Coulomb stress decreases are predicted at the locations of the two events. The trend of the aftershocks is similar to mapped reverse faults north of Christchurch, and the high number of reverse-faulting mechanisms suggests that similar reverse-faulting structures are present in the offshore region east of Christchurch.

  4. Numerical modeling of block structure dynamics: Application to the Vrancea region and study of earthquakes sequences in the synthetic catalogs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Soloviev, A.A.; Vorobieva, I.A.

    1995-08-01

    A seismically active region is represented as a system of absolutely rigid blocks divided by infinitely thin plane faults. The interaction of the blocks along the fault planes and with the underlying medium is viscous-elastic. The system of blocks moves as a consequence of prescribed motion of boundary blocks and the underlying medium. When for some part of a fault plane the stress surpasses a certain strength level a stress-drop (''a failure'') occurs. It can cause a failure for other parts of fault planes. The failures are considered as earthquakes. As a result of the numerical simulation a synthetic earthquake catalogue is produced. This procedure is applied for numerical modeling of dynamics of the block structure approximating the tectonic structure of the Vrancea region. By numerical experiments the values of the model parameters were obtained which supplied the synthetic earthquake catalog with the space distribution of epicenters close to the real distribution of the earthquake epicenters in the Vrancea region. The frequency-magnitude relations (Gutenberg-Richter curves) obtained for the synthetic and real catalogs have some common features. The sequences of earthquakes arising in the model are studied for some artificial structures. It is found that ''foreshocks'', ''main shocks'', and ''aftershocks'' could be detected among earthquakes forming the sequences. The features of aftershocks, foreshocks, and catalogs of main shocks are analysed. (author). 5 refs, 12 figs, 16 tabs

  5. The Mw 5.8 Mineral, Virginia, earthquake of August 2011 and aftershock sequence: constraints on earthquake source parameters and fault geometry

    Science.gov (United States)

    McNamara, Daniel E.; Benz, H.M.; Herrmann, Robert B.; Bergman, Eric A.; Earle, Paul; Meltzer, Anne; Withers, Mitch; Chapman, Martin

    2014-01-01

    The Mw 5.8 earthquake of 23 August 2011 (17:51:04 UTC) (moment, M0 5.7×1017  N·m) occurred near Mineral, Virginia, within the central Virginia seismic zone and was felt by more people than any other earthquake in United States history. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) received 148,638 felt reports from 31 states and 4 Canadian provinces. The USGS PAGER system estimates as many as 120,000 people were exposed to shaking intensity levels of IV and greater, with approximately 10,000 exposed to shaking as high as intensity VIII. Both regional and teleseismic moment tensor solutions characterize the earthquake as a northeast‐striking reverse fault that nucleated at a depth of approximately 7±2  km. The distribution of reported macroseismic intensities is roughly ten times the area of a similarly sized earthquake in the western United States (Horton and Williams, 2012). Near‐source and far‐field damage reports, which extend as far away as Washington, D.C., (135 km away) and Baltimore, Maryland, (200 km away) are consistent with an earthquake of this size and depth in the eastern United States (EUS). Within the first few days following the earthquake, several government and academic institutions installed 36 portable seismograph stations in the epicentral region, making this among the best‐recorded aftershock sequences in the EUS. Based on modeling of these data, we provide a detailed description of the source parameters of the mainshock and analysis of the subsequent aftershock sequence for defining the fault geometry, area of rupture, and observations of the aftershock sequence magnitude–frequency and temporal distribution. The observed slope of the magnitude–frequency curve or b‐value for the aftershock sequence is consistent with previous EUS studies (b=0.75), suggesting that most of the accumulated strain was released by the mainshock. The aftershocks define a rupture that extends between approximately 2–8 km in depth and 8–10 km along

  6. Cataloging the 1811-1812 New Madrid, central U.S., earthquake sequence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hough, S.E.

    2009-01-01

    The three principal New Madrid, central U.S., mainshocks of 1811-1812 were followed by extensive aftershock sequences that included numerous felt events. Although no instrumental data are available for the sequence, historical accounts provide information that can be used to estimate magnitudes and locations for the large aftershocks as well as the mainshocks. Several detailed eyewitness accounts of the sequence provide sufficient information to identify times and rough magnitude estimates for a number of aftershocks that have not been analyzed previously. I also use three extended compilations of felt events to explore the overall sequence productivity. Although one generally cannot estimate magnitudes or locations for individual events, the intensity distributions of recent, instrumentally recorded earthquakes in the region provide a basis for estimation of the magnitude distribution of 1811-1812 aftershocks. The distribution is consistent with a b-value distribution. I estimate Mw 6-6.3 for the three largest identifiable aftershocks, apart from the so-called dawn aftershock on 16 December 1811.

  7. Long-term earthquake forecasts based on the epidemic-type aftershock sequence (ETAS model for short-term clustering

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jiancang Zhuang

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available Based on the ETAS (epidemic-type aftershock sequence model, which is used for describing the features of short-term clustering of earthquake occurrence, this paper presents some theories and techniques related to evaluating the probability distribution of the maximum magnitude in a given space-time window, where the Gutenberg-Richter law for earthquake magnitude distribution cannot be directly applied. It is seen that the distribution of the maximum magnitude in a given space-time volume is determined in the longterm by the background seismicity rate and the magnitude distribution of the largest events in each earthquake cluster. The techniques introduced were applied to the seismicity in the Japan region in the period from 1926 to 2009. It was found that the regions most likely to have big earthquakes are along the Tohoku (northeastern Japan Arc and the Kuril Arc, both with much higher probabilities than the offshore Nankai and Tokai regions.

  8. Identifying Active Faults by Improving Earthquake Locations with InSAR Data and Bayesian Estimation: The 2004 Tabuk (Saudi Arabia) Earthquake Sequence

    KAUST Repository

    Xu, Wenbin

    2015-02-03

    A sequence of shallow earthquakes of magnitudes ≤5.1 took place in 2004 on the eastern flank of the Red Sea rift, near the city of Tabuk in northwestern Saudi Arabia. The earthquakes could not be well located due to the sparse distribution of seismic stations in the region, making it difficult to associate the activity with one of the many mapped faults in the area and thus to improve the assessment of seismic hazard in the region. We used Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) data from the European Space Agency’s Envisat and ERS‐2 satellites to improve the location and source parameters of the largest event of the sequence (Mw 5.1), which occurred on 22 June 2004. The mainshock caused a small but distinct ∼2.7  cm displacement signal in the InSAR data, which reveals where the earthquake took place and shows that seismic reports mislocated it by 3–16 km. With Bayesian estimation, we modeled the InSAR data using a finite‐fault model in a homogeneous elastic half‐space and found the mainshock activated a normal fault, roughly 70 km southeast of the city of Tabuk. The southwest‐dipping fault has a strike that is roughly parallel to the Red Sea rift, and we estimate the centroid depth of the earthquake to be ∼3.2  km. Projection of the fault model uncertainties to the surface indicates that one of the west‐dipping normal faults located in the area and oriented parallel to the Red Sea is a likely source for the mainshock. The results demonstrate how InSAR can be used to improve locations of moderate‐size earthquakes and thus to identify currently active faults.

  9. Time-dependent neo-deterministic seismic hazard scenarios for the 2016 Central Italy earthquakes sequence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peresan, Antonella; Kossobokov, Vladimir; Romashkova, Leontina; Panza, Giuliano F.

    2017-04-01

    emphasis on the sequence of destructive earthquakes that struck Central Italy starting on August 2016. The results obtained so far evidence the validity of the proposed methodology in anticipating ground shaking from approaching strong earthquakes and prove that the information provided by time-dependent NDSHA can be useful in assigning priorities for timely and effective mitigation actions.

  10. Bayesian inference and interpretation of centroid moment tensors of the 2016 Kumamoto earthquake sequence, Kyushu, Japan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hallo, Miroslav; Asano, Kimiyuki; Gallovič, František

    2017-09-01

    On April 16, 2016, Kumamoto prefecture in Kyushu region, Japan, was devastated by a shallow M JMA7.3 earthquake. The series of foreshocks started by M JMA6.5 foreshock 28 h before the mainshock. They have originated in Hinagu fault zone intersecting the mainshock Futagawa fault zone; hence, the tectonic background for this earthquake sequence is rather complex. Here we infer centroid moment tensors (CMTs) for 11 events with M JMA between 4.8 and 6.5, using strong motion records of the K-NET, KiK-net and F-net networks. We use upgraded Bayesian full-waveform inversion code ISOLA-ObsPy, which takes into account uncertainty of the velocity model. Such an approach allows us to reliably assess uncertainty of the CMT parameters including the centroid position. The solutions show significant systematic spatial and temporal variations throughout the sequence. Foreshocks are right-lateral steeply dipping strike-slip events connected to the NE-SW shear zone. Those located close to the intersection of the Hinagu and Futagawa fault zones are dipping slightly to ESE, while those in the southern area are dipping to WNW. Contrarily, aftershocks are mostly normal dip-slip events, being related to the N-S extensional tectonic regime. Most of the deviatoric moment tensors contain only minor CLVD component, which can be attributed to the velocity model uncertainty. Nevertheless, two of the CMTs involve a significant CLVD component, which may reflect complex rupture process. Decomposition of those moment tensors into two pure shear moment tensors suggests combined right-lateral strike-slip and normal dip-slip mechanisms, consistent with the tectonic settings of the intersection of the Hinagu and Futagawa fault zones.[Figure not available: see fulltext.

  11. Lessons learned from the Youngstown, Ohio induced earthquake sequence from January 2011 to January 2012

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A.P. Morris

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available The Youngstown earthquake sequence of 2011 is one of the clearest examples of inadvertently induced seismicity for which detailed documentation is available. In this paper, we investigate (i likely stress states in the vicinity of the injection well, (ii a range of likely permeability scenarios, and (iii relatively simple methods by which induced seismicity can be evaluated and mitigated. We use relocated hypocenters from the seismic sequence to construct a basement fault structure, which is then used to serve as a reference surface within the basement, and on which we calculate the effects of pore pressure changes induced by the injection activities of the Northstar #1 injection well. We also deduce an in situ (pre-injection strike-slip stress regime, where σ2 ≈ σ3, and it is consistent with both recent earthquake data and published stress estimates for the region. If the reactivation characteristics of the basement are known or assumed, a critical or threshold slip tendency can be determined and the basement faults can be analyzed for the likelihood of reactivation in a perturbed pore pressure field. Comparison of well injection pressures and simulated pore pressure perturbations within the basement below the injection well indicates that permeability anisotropy is necessary to generate sufficient pore pressure perturbation to induce fault reactivation. Simulations of the well's injection history show that our estimate of in situ stress state, coupled with a highly anisotropic permeability structure, can generate sufficient pore pressure perturbation on the inferred basement structure to cause reactivation, potentially slipping an area of approximately 4 × 105 m2.

  12. Transpressional Structure in Chiayi Area, Taiwan: Insight from the 2017 ML5.1 Zhongpu Earthquake Sequence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feng, K. F.; Huang, H. H.

    2017-12-01

    The Chiayi area is located at the deformation front of active fold-and-thrust belt of Taiwan, where the fault system is composed primarily of a series of north-south-trending east-dipping thrusts and also an east-west-trending strike-slip fault (Meishan Fault, MSF) with right-lateral faulting. On 24th May 2017, a ML 5.1 earthquake occurred at Zhongpu, Chiayi (namely Zhongpu earthquake), however, shows a left-lateral strike-slip faulting distinct from the known structure in the area. The distribution of the reported aftershocks is difficult to distinguish the actual fault plane. To determine the fault plane of this abnormal earthquake and investigate its structural relationships to the regional tectonics, we relocate the earthquake sequence and estimate the rupture directivity of the mainshock by using the 3-D double difference hypocenter relocation method (Lin, 2013) and the 3-D directivity moment tensor inversion method (DMT, Huang et al., 2017, submitted). The DMT results show that the rupture directivity of the Zhongpu earthquake is west- and down-ward along the east-west fault plane, which also agrees with east-west-distributed aftershocks after relocation. As a result, the Zhongpu earthquake reveals an undiscovered east-west-trending structure which is sub-parallel with the MSF but with opposite faulting direction, exhibiting a complex transpressional tectonic regime in the Chiayi area.

  13. Small-displacement linear surface ruptures of the 2016 Kumamoto earthquake sequence detected by ALOS-2 SAR interferometry

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fujiwara, Satoshi; Yarai, Hiroshi; Kobayashi, Tomokazu; Morishita, Yu; Nakano, Takayuki; Miyahara, Basara; Nakai, Hiroyuki; Miura, Yuji; Ueshiba, Haruka; Kakiage, Yasuaki; Une, Hiroshi

    2016-09-01

    We constructed and analyzed the ground surface displacement associated with the 2016 Kumamoto earthquake sequence using satellite radar interferometry images of the Advanced Land Observing Satellite 2. The radar interferogram generally shows elastic deformation caused by the main earthquakes, but many other linear discontinuities showing displacement are also found. Approximately 230 lineaments are identified, some of which coincide with the positions of known active faults, such as the main earthquake faults belonging to the Futagawa and Hinagu fault zones and other minor faults; however, there are much fewer known active faults than lineaments. In each area, the lineaments have a similar direction and displacement to each other; therefore, they can be divided into several groups based on location and major features. Since the direction of the lineaments coincides with that of known active faults or their conjugate faults, the cause of the lineaments must be related to the tectonic stress field of this region. The lineaments are classified into the following two categories: (1) main earthquake faults and their branched subfaults and (2) secondary faults that are not directly related to the main earthquake but whose slip was probably triggered by the main earthquake or aftershocks.[Figure not available: see fulltext.

  14. The Impressive 1811-1812 New Madrid Earthquake Sequence and the Geologic Record of at Least Two Other Sequences in the Last 1000 Years

    Science.gov (United States)

    Williams, R. A.

    2011-12-01

    The currently active New Madrid seismic zone (NMSZ) was the source of a series of major earthquakes and hundreds of aftershocks that began on December 16, 1811 and continued through 1812. At the time, the region was sparsely populated but today it is home to about 12 million people. Four earthquakes in this 1811-1812 sequence had magnitudes (M) from about 6.8-8.0 and were felt widely across the eastern U.S. as far as the Atlantic seaboard 1,700 km away. About a dozen aftershocks in the M5.0-6.3 range were also felt widely across the eastern U.S. The first earthquake occurred December 16, 1811, at 2:15 a.m. followed by the largest aftershock in the sequence (M6.8-7.0) at about 7:15 a.m.; the second main shock at 9 a.m. on January 23, 1812; and the third main shock on February 7, 1812, at 3:45 a.m. These four principle shocks were among the largest to strike North America since European settlement. Because of low seismic attenuation in the eastern U.S., the area of strong shaking of the December 16 main shock was about 10 times larger than that of the 1906 M7.8 San Francisco earthquake. The NMSZ produced large earthquakes in the M6.0-6.6 range in 1843 and 1895 and currently generates about 150 earthquakes annually in the M1.5-4 range. Though no instrumental data for the 1811-1812 earthquakes exist, first-hand accounts indicate that the mainshocks were followed by hundreds of aftershocks that lasted for months. They caused general alarm from Detroit (800 km) to New Orleans (700 km). In the epicentral region, Memphis, Tenn. was not yet established, but many homes were damaged in the 5500-inhabitant town of St. Louis, Mo. (250 km). The frontier trading towns of Little Prairie (now Caruthersville) and New Madrid, Mo., were severely damaged and temporarily evacuated. The 1811-1812 sequence left its mark on the landscape that endures today. During the earthquake, witnesses reported that the ground rose, fell, and cracked, and that trees snapped. Large landslides were

  15. Source parameters of the Izmit-Bolu 1999 (Turkey earthquake sequences from teleseismic data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E. Louvari

    2001-06-01

    Full Text Available Body waveform modelling and far-field displacement spectral analyses were used to study the source parameters of five of the largest earthquakes of the (Izmit-Bolu Turkey 1999 sequence. The derived source parameters for the August 17, 1999 M W 7.4 event are: strike = 267°, dip = 85°, rake = – 175°, h = 10 km, M 0 = 1.31×10 20 Nm. The length of the fault was found equal to 76 km, the average displacement 6.4 m and the static stress drop 90 bars. The Bolu November 12, 1999 M W 7.1 event has a focal mechanism with strike = 262°, dip = 53°, rake = –177°, h = 12 km, M 0 = 4.71×10 19 Nm, fault length of 56 km, average displacement 2.1 m and average static stress drop 29 bars. The focal mechanisms of three other aftershocks of the Izmit sequence indicate right lateral strike slip motion, as well. The slip vectors of the events studied are in accordance with the GPS velocity vectors, have a mean azimuth of 269° and reveal the extrusion of the Anatolian plate towards the Aegean.

  16. Coseismic landslides associated with the 2015 Gorkha earthquake sequence in Nepal

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clark, M. K.; Gallen, S. F.; West, A. J.; Chamlagain, D.; Roback, K.; Lowe, K.; Niemi, N. A.; Greenwood, W.; Bateman, J.; Zekkos, D.

    2015-12-01

    Coseismic landsliding due to the M7.8 Gorkha earthquake sequence poses immediate and prolonged hazards to communities in the Nepalese Himalaya, as well as a rare opportunity to study the effect of large earthquakes on erosion and sediment budgets in mountain belts. We present near-real time response models developed within hours of the event using a simplified Newmark analysis. These rapid response models were used to prioritize early scientific efforts and to guide rescue and recovery efforts by US and international agencies. Analyses included prediction of regional landslide occurrence and identification of potential landslide dam locations, which could cause flooding upstream and downstream if the dam is catastrophically breached. Subsequent investigations have included mapping of coseismic landslides using pre- and post- event satellite imagery and field observations, and inversion of mapped landslide distributions for estimates of near-surface rock strength. Compared to model predictions using regionally uniform rock strength, observed landslides are more concentrated north of the physiographic transition between the Lesser and Greater Himalaya where hillslope gradients suddenly steepen. Fewer landslides than predicted occurred in the high elevation, steep glaciated terrain and in areas of highest modeled PGA, just to the south of this physiographic transition. Discrepancies between model predictions and observations could arise from spatial variability in rock strength, in PGA or frequency content at specific site locations, or by pre-conditioning (topographic or otherwise) for landslide hazard. Co-seismic landsliding produces a prolonged hazard for years to come. In the near term, more frequent landslides are expected to occur during the summer monsoon seasons by remobilization of debris and due to a dynamic increase in pore-pressure on hillsides or near ridge tops that were pervasively cracked during the main earthquake or aftershocks, but did not

  17. The 2008 Wells, Nevada earthquake sequence: Source constraints using calibrated multiple event relocation and InSAR

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nealy, Jennifer; Benz, Harley M.; Hayes, Gavin; Berman, Eric; Barnhart, William

    2017-01-01

    The 2008 Wells, NV earthquake represents the largest domestic event in the conterminous U.S. outside of California since the October 1983 Borah Peak earthquake in southern Idaho. We present an improved catalog, magnitude complete to 1.6, of the foreshock-aftershock sequence, supplementing the current U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Preliminary Determination of Epicenters (PDE) catalog with 1,928 well-located events. In order to create this catalog, both subspace and kurtosis detectors are used to obtain an initial set of earthquakes and associated locations. The latter are then calibrated through the implementation of the hypocentroidal decomposition method and relocated using the BayesLoc relocation technique. We additionally perform a finite fault slip analysis of the mainshock using InSAR observations. By combining the relocated sequence with the finite fault analysis, we show that the aftershocks occur primarily updip and along the southwestern edge of the zone of maximum slip. The aftershock locations illuminate areas of post-mainshock strain increase; aftershock depths, ranging from 5 to 16 km, are consistent with InSAR imaging, which shows that the Wells earthquake was a buried source with no observable near-surface offset.

  18. Surface deformation associated with the November 23, 1977, Caucete, Argentina, earthquake sequence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kadinsky-Cade, K.; Reilinger, R.; Isacks, B.

    1985-01-01

    The 1977 Caucete (San Juan) earthquake considered in the present paper occurred near the Sierra Pie de Palo in the Sierras Pampeanas tectonic province of western Argentina. In the study reported, coseismic surface deformation is combined with seismic observations (main shock and aftershocks, both teleseismic and local data) to place constraints on the geometry and slip of the main fault responsible for the 1977 earthquake. The implications of the 1977 event for long-term crustal shortening and earthquake recurrence rates in this region are also discussed. It is concluded that the 1977 Caucete earthquake was accompanied by more than 1 m of vertical uplift.

  19. The 2014 Pisagua-Iquique (Chile) earthquake sequence : geodetic constraints on space-time slip behaviour of a megathrust segment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grandin, R.; Ruiz, S.; Metois, M.; Bejar, M.; Vigny, C.; Boudin, F.; Allgeyer, S.; Motagh, M.; Fuenzalida, A.; Leyton, F.; Ruiz, J. A.; Rivera, E.; Vallee, M.; Jara, J.; Cotte, N.; de Chabalier, J. B.; Lacassin, R.; Carrizo, D.; Socquet, A.; Armijo, R.; Ruegg, J. C.

    2014-12-01

    The April 1, 2014 Pisagua earthquake (Mw 8.1) can be considered as the paroxysm of a long sequence of unusually high seismic activity within the Northern Chile megathrust system. The sequence started in March 2014, with two weeks of intense foreshock activity, suggesting that the mainshock may have been trigerred by a slow slip event (Ruiz et al., 2014). The April 1, 2014 mainshock broke a portion of the subduction interface that had been previously identified as highly coupled, and seems to have been limited along strike by two zones of lower coupling. A significant earthquake occurred some 100 km to the south of, and approx. 24 hour after the mainshock (April 3, 2014 Iquique Mw 7.6 earthquake). This sequence illustrates the importance of short-term, short-range earthquake interaction mechanisms in controlling the slip behaviour of a megathrust interface, with important implications on associated hazards. Static surface displacements during each phase of the sequence are determined using a combination of continuous GPS, InSAR (TerraSAR-X ScanSAR) and tide gauge records. Using a single elastic inversion procedure, we invert for the slip distribution associated with the sub-events, as well as interseismic coupling using continuous GPS, campaign GPS and InSAR measurements acquired in the years preceding the sequence. This methodology allows for consistently determining the spatial relationship between the different slip patches (pre-seismic, co-seismic, post-seismic and inter-seismic). The bulk of the moment during the April 1, 2014 earthquake (Mw 8.1) was released 50 km to the south of the hypocenter, 50 km offshore from Pisagua town. In contrast, the April 3, 2014 earthquake (Mw 7.6) occurred beneath the coastal city of Iquique. Coseismic slip during the two main events depicts a complex pattern, broadly complementary with interseismic coupling, preshock / aftershock distribution and post-seismic afterslip. A detailed comparison of the successive sub-events aims at

  20. Scaling Relations of Local Magnitude versus Moment Magnitude for Sequences of Similar Earthquakes in Switzerland

    KAUST Repository

    Bethmann, F.

    2011-03-22

    Theoretical considerations and empirical regressions show that, in the magnitude range between 3 and 5, local magnitude, ML, and moment magnitude, Mw, scale 1:1. Previous studies suggest that for smaller magnitudes this 1:1 scaling breaks down. However, the scatter between ML and Mw at small magnitudes is usually large and the resulting scaling relations are therefore uncertain. In an attempt to reduce these uncertainties, we first analyze the ML versus Mw relation based on 195 events, induced by the stimulation of a geothermal reservoir below the city of Basel, Switzerland. Values of ML range from 0.7 to 3.4. From these data we derive a scaling of ML ~ 1:5Mw over the given magnitude range. We then compare peak Wood-Anderson amplitudes to the low-frequency plateau of the displacement spectra for six sequences of similar earthquakes in Switzerland in the range of 0:5 ≤ ML ≤ 4:1. Because effects due to the radiation pattern and to the propagation path between source and receiver are nearly identical at a particular station for all events in a given sequence, the scatter in the data is substantially reduced. Again we obtain a scaling equivalent to ML ~ 1:5Mw. Based on simulations using synthetic source time functions for different magnitudes and Q values estimated from spectral ratios between downhole and surface recordings, we conclude that the observed scaling can be explained by attenuation and scattering along the path. Other effects that could explain the observed magnitude scaling, such as a possible systematic increase of stress drop or rupture velocity with moment magnitude, are masked by attenuation along the path.

  1. The 2015 Gorkha (Nepal) earthquake sequence: I. Source modeling and deterministic 3D ground shaking

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wei, Shengji; Chen, Meng; Wang, Xin; Graves, Robert; Lindsey, Eric; Wang, Teng; Karakaş, Çağıl; Helmberger, Don

    2018-01-01

    To better quantify the relatively long period (earthquake sequence, we study the finite rupture processes and the associated 3D ground motion of the Mw7.8 mainshock and the Mw7.2 aftershock. The 3D synthetics are then used in the broadband ground shaking in Kathmandu with a hybrid approach, summarized in a companion paper (Chen and Wei, 2017, submitted together). We determined the coseismic rupture process of the mainshock by joint inversion of InSAR/SAR, GPS (static and high-rate), strong motion and teleseismic waveforms. Our inversion for the mainshock indicates unilateral rupture towards the ESE, with an average rupture speed of 3.0 km/s and a total duration of 60 s. Additionally, we find that the beginning part of the rupture (5-18 s) has about 40% longer rise time than the rest of the rupture, as well as slower rupture velocity. Our model shows two strong asperities occurring 24 s and 36 s after the origin and located 30 km to the northwest and northeast of the Kathmandu valley, respectively. In contrast, the Mw7.2 aftershock is more compact both in time and space, as revealed by joint inversion of teleseismic body waves and InSAR data. The different rupture features between the mainshock and the aftershock could be related to difference in fault zone structure. The mainshock and aftershock ground motions in the Kathmandu valley, recorded by both strong motion and high-rate GPS stations, exhibited strong amplification around 0.2 Hz. A simplified 3D basin model, calibrated by an Mw5.2 aftershock, can match the observed waveforms reasonably well at 0.3 Hz and lower frequency. The 3D simulations indicate that the basin structure trapped the wavefield and produced an extensive ground vibration. Our study suggests that the combination of rupture characteristics and propagational complexity are required to understand the ground shaking produced by hazardous earthquakes such as the Gorkha event.

  2. Absolute far-field displacements from the 28 June 1992 Landers earthquake sequence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blewitt, Geoffrey; Heflin, Michael B.; Hurst, Kenneth J.; Jefferson, David C.; Webb, Frank H.; Zumberge, James F.

    1993-01-01

    Displacements observed for the Landers earthquake indicate that the depth of the bottom of the rupture is shallower towards the northern end. Displacements were dominantly symmetric and the rupture extended farther south on the Johnson Valley fault than has been mapped on the basis of surface ground offsets. The combined geodetic moment for the Landers and Big Bear earthquakes agrees well with teleseismic estimates.

  3. Characterizing spatial heterogeneity based on the b-value and fractal analyses of the 2015 Nepal earthquake sequence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nampally, Subhadra; Padhy, Simanchal; Dimri, Vijay P.

    2018-01-01

    The nature of spatial distribution of heterogeneities in the source area of the 2015 Nepal earthquake is characterized based on the seismic b-value and fractal analysis of its aftershocks. The earthquake size distribution of aftershocks gives a b-value of 1.11 ± 0.08, possibly representing the highly heterogeneous and low stress state of the region. The aftershocks exhibit a fractal structure characterized by a spectrum of generalized dimensions, Dq varying from D2 = 1.66 to D22 = 0.11. The existence of a fractal structure suggests that the spatial distribution of aftershocks is not a random phenomenon, but it self-organizes into a critical state, exhibiting a scale-independent structure governed by a power-law scaling, where a small perturbation in stress is sufficient enough to trigger aftershocks. In order to obtain the bias in fractal dimensions resulting from finite data size, we compared the multifractal spectrum for the real data and random simulations. On comparison, we found that the lower limit of bias in D2 is 0.44. The similarity in their multifractal spectra suggests the lack of long-range correlation in the data, with an only weakly multifractal or a monofractal with a single correlation dimension D2 characterizing the data. The minimum number of events required for a multifractal process with an acceptable error is discussed. We also tested for a possible correlation between changes in D2 and energy released during the earthquakes. The values of D2 rise during the two largest earthquakes (M > 7.0) in the sequence. The b- and D2 values are related by D2 = 1.45 b that corresponds to the intermediate to large earthquakes. Our results provide useful constraints on the spatial distribution of b- and D2-values, which are useful for seismic hazard assessment in the aftershock area of a large earthquake.

  4. Comparisons of Source Characteristics between Recent Inland Crustal Earthquake Sequences inside and outside of Niigata-Kobe Tectonic Zone, Japan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Somei, K.; Asano, K.; Iwata, T.; Miyakoshi, K.

    2012-12-01

    After the 1995 Kobe earthquake, many M7-class inland earthquakes occurred in Japan. Some of those events (e.g., the 2004 Chuetsu earthquake) occurred in a tectonic zone which is characterized as a high strain rate zone by the GPS observation (Sagiya et al., 2000) or dense distribution of active faults. That belt-like zone along the coast in Japan Sea side of Tohoku and Chubu districts, and north of Kinki district, is called as the Niigata-Kobe tectonic zone (NKTZ, Sagiya et al, 2000). We investigate seismic scaling relationship for recent inland crustal earthquake sequences in Japan and compare source characteristics between events occurring inside and outside of NKTZ. We used S-wave coda part for estimating source spectra. Source spectral ratio is obtained by S-wave coda spectral ratio between the records of large and small events occurring close to each other from nation-wide strong motion network (K-NET and KiK-net) and broad-band seismic network (F-net) to remove propagation-path and site effects. We carefully examined the commonality of the decay of coda envelopes between event-pair records and modeled the observed spectral ratio by the source spectral ratio function with assuming omega-square source model for large and small events. We estimated the corner frequencies and seismic moment (ratio) from those modeled spectral ratio function. We determined Brune's stress drops of 356 events (Mw: 3.1-6.9) in ten earthquake sequences occurring in NKTZ and six sequences occurring outside of NKTZ. Most of source spectra obey omega-square source spectra. There is no obvious systematic difference between stress drops of events in NKTZ zone and others. We may conclude that the systematic tendency of seismic source scaling of the events occurred inside and outside of NKTZ does not exist and the average source scaling relationship can be effective for inland crustal earthquakes. Acknowledgements: Waveform data were provided from K-NET, KiK-net and F-net operated by

  5. The January 2014 Northern Cuba Earthquake Sequence - Unusual Location and Unexpected Source Mechanism Variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Braunmiller, J.; Thompson, G.; McNutt, S. R.

    2017-12-01

    On 9 January 2014, a magnitude Mw=5.1 earthquake occurred along the Bahamas-Cuba suture at the northern coast of Cuba revealing a surprising seismic hazard source for both Cuba and southern Florida where it was widely felt. Due to its location, the event and its aftershocks (M>3.5) were recorded only at far distances (300+ km) resulting in high-detection thresholds, low location accuracy, and limited source parameter resolution. We use three-component regional seismic data to study the sequence. High-pass filtered seismograms at the closest site in southern Florida are similar in character suggesting a relatively tight event cluster and revealing additional, smaller aftershocks not included in the ANSS or ISC catalogs. Aligning on the P arrival and low-pass filtering (T>10 s) uncovers a surprise polarity flip of the large amplitude surface waves on vertical seismograms for some aftershocks relative to the main shock. We performed regional moment tensor inversions of the main shock and its largest aftershocks using complete three-component seismograms from stations distributed throughout the region to confirm the mechanism changes. Consistent with the GCMT solution, we find an E-W trending normal faulting mechanism for the main event and for one immediate aftershock. Two aftershocks indicate E-W trending reverse faulting with essentially flipped P- and T-axes relative to the normal faulting events (and the same B-axes). Within uncertainties, depths of the two event families are indistinguishable and indicate shallow faulting (Cuba posing a potential hazard to Florida and the Bahamas.

  6. April 25, 2015, Gorkha Earthquake, Nepal and Sequence of Aftershocks: Key Lessons

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guragain, R.; Dixit, A. M.; Shrestha, S. N.

    2015-12-01

    The Gorkha Earthquake of M7.8 hit Nepal on April 25, 2015 at 11:56 am local time. The epicenter of this earthquake was Barpak, Gorkha, 80 km northwest of Kathmandu Valley. The main shock was followed by hundreds of aftershocks including M6.6 and M6.7 within 48 hours and M7.3 on May 12, 2015. According to the Government of Nepal, a total of 8,686 people lost their lives, 16,808 people injured, over 500,000 buildings completely collapsed and more than 250,000 building partially damaged. The National Society for Earthquake Technology - Nepal (NSET), a not-for-profit civil society organization that has been focused on earthquake risk reduction in Nepal for past 21 years, conducted various activities to support people and the government in responding to the earthquake disaster. The activities included: i) assisting people and critical facility institutions to conduct rapid visual building damage assessment including the training; ii) information campaign to provide proper information regarding earthquake safety; iii) support rescue organizations on search and rescue operations; and iv) provide technical support to common people on repair, retrofit of damaged houses. NSET is also involved in carrying out studies related to earthquake damage, geotechnical problems, and causes of building damages. Additionally, NSET has done post-earthquake detail damage assessment of buildings throughout the affected areas. Prior to the earthquake, NSET has been working with several institutions to improve seismic performance of school buildings, private residential houses, and other critical structures. Such activities implemented during the past decade have shown the effectiveness of risk reduction. Retrofitted school buildings performed very well during the earthquake. Preparedness activities implemented at community levels have helped communities to respond immediately and save lives. Higher level of earthquake awareness achieved including safe behavior, better understanding of

  7. Source parameters for the 2013-2015 earthquake sequence in Nógrád county, Hungary

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wéber, Zoltán

    2016-07-01

    Between 2013 June and 2015 January, 35 earthquakes with local magnitude M L ranging from 1.1 to 4.2 occurred in Nógrád county, Hungary. This earthquake sequence represents above average seismic activity in the region and is the first one that was recorded by a significant number of three-component digital seismographs in the county. Using a Bayesian multiple-event location algorithm, we have estimated the hypocenters of 30 earthquakes with M L ≥1.5. The events occurred in two small regions of a few squared kilometers: one to the east of Érsekvadkert and the other at Iliny. The uncertainty of the epicenters is about 1.5-1.7 km in the E-W direction and 1.8-2.1 km in the N-S direction at the 95 % confidence level. The estimated event depths are confined to the upper 3 km of the crust. We have successfully estimated the full moment tensors of 4 M w ≥3.6 earthquakes using a probabilistic waveform inversion procedure. The non-double-couple components of the retrieved moment tensor solutions are statistically insignificant. The negligible amount of the isotropic component implies the tectonic nature of the investigated events. All of the analyzed earthquakes have strike-slip mechanism with either right-lateral slip on an approximately N-S striking or left-lateral movement on a roughly E-W striking nodal plane. The orientations of the obtained focal mechanisms are in good agreement with the main stress pattern published for the epicentral region. Both the P and T principal axes are horizontal, and the P axis is oriented along a NE-SW direction.

  8. The 2009 L'Aquila earthquake sequence: technical and scientific activities during the emergency and post-emergency phases

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cardinali, Mauro

    2010-05-01

    The Central Apennines of Italy is an area characterized by significant seismic activity. In this area, individual earthquakes and prolonged seismic sequences produce a variety of ground effects, including landslides. The L'Aquila area, in the Abruzzo Region, was affected by an earthquake sequence that started on December 2008, and continued for several months. The main shock occurred on April 6, 2009, with local magnitude m = 6.3, and was followed by two separate earthquakes on April 7 and April 9, each with a local magnitude m > 5.0. The main shocks caused 308 fatalities, injured more than 1500 people, and left in excess of 65,000 people homeless. Damage to the cultural heritage was also severe, with tens of churches and historical buildings severely damaged or destroyed. The main shocks and some of the most severe aftershocks triggered landslides, chiefly rock falls and minor rock slides that caused damage to towns, individual houses, and the transportation network. Beginning in the immediate aftermath of the event, and continuing during the emergency and post-emergency phases, we assisted the Italian national Department for Civil Protection in the evaluation of local landslide and hydrological risk conditions. Technical and scientific activities focused on: (i) mapping the location, type, and severity of the main ground effects produced by the earthquake shaking, (ii) evaluating and selecting sites for potential new settlements and individual buildings, including a preliminary assessment of the local geomorphological and hydrological conditions; (iii) evaluating rock fall hazard at individual sites, (iv) monitoring slope and ground deformations, and (v) designing and implementing a prototype system for the forecast of the possible occurrence of rainfall-induced landslides. To execute these activates, we exploited a wide range of methods, techniques, and technologies, and we performed repeated field surveys, the interpretation of ground and aerial photographs

  9. The Initial Stages of the Guy-Greenbrier, Arkansas, Earthquake Sequence: Induced by Both Wastewater Injection and Hydraulic Fracturing Amid Natural Seismicity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yoon, C. E.; Huang, Y.; Ellsworth, W. L.; Beroza, G. C.

    2016-12-01

    The Guy-Greenbrier, Arkansas, earthquake sequence, which occurred from July 2010 through October 2011, was potentially induced by injection of wastewater from nearby hydraulic fracturing operations into disposal wells (Horton, 2012). To gain insight into the initial stages of this earthquake sequence, we detected and located earthquakes during a three month time period from 2010-06-01 to 2010-08-31, spanning a time interval before and after the beginning of the sequence in July 2010. We then examined spatial and temporal correlations between seismicity, wastewater injection, and hydraulic fracture stimulation of production wells. Although the Arkansas seismic network is sparse, the Fingerprint And Similarity Thresholding (FAST) method (Yoon et al., 2015) enabled comprehensive detection of 14,000 low-magnitude earthquakes ranging from M -1 to 1.8 in continuous seismic data from a single 3-component station WHAR. We then located the largest 756 (M > 0) earthquakes with data from two additional stations, ARK1 and ARK2, in a small local network, using the velocity model from Ogwari et al. (2016). The majority of these earthquakes are located at the north end of the Guy-Greenbrier Fault, a previously unknown fault that would later be illuminated by hundreds of thousands of earthquakes in 2010-2011. By comparing the stimulation and disposal history of wells in the area with precise earthquake locations, we find that many of the earthquakes are closely correlated in space and time with either hydraulic fracturing operations or wastewater injection. We also observe minor seismicity off the Guy-Greenbrier Fault, which we are currently unable to associate with wastewater injection or hydraulic fracturing, that may be natural background seismicity. Our retrospective analysis indicates that high accuracy earthquake locations with low magnitude detection thresholds can provide new insights into sources of potentially induced seismicity.

  10. Waveform complexity caused by near trench structure and its impact on earthquake source study: application to the 2015 Illapel earthquake sequence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Qian, Y.; Wei, S.; Wu, W.; Ni, S.

    2017-12-01

    Among various types of 3D heterogeneity in the Earth, trench might be the most complex systems, which includes rapidly varying bathymetry and usually thick sediment below water layer. These structure complexities can cause substantial waveform complexities on seismograms, but their corresponding impact on the earthquake source studies has not yet been well understood. Here we explore those effects via studies of two moderate aftershocks (one near the coast while the other close to the Peru-Chile trench axis) in the 2015 Illapel earthquake sequence. The horizontal locations and depths of these two events are poorly constrained and the reported results of various agencies display substantial variations. Thus, we first relocated the epicenters using the P-wave first arrivals and determined other parameters by waveform fitting. In a jackknifing way, we found that the trench event has large differences between regional and teleseismic solutions, in particular for depth, while the coastal event shows consistent results. The teleseismic P/Pdiff waves between these two events also display distinctly different features. More specifically, the trench event has more complex P/Pdiff waves and stronger coda waves, in terms of amplitude and duration (longer than 100s). The coda waves are coherent across stations at different distances and azimuths, indicating a more likely origin of scattering waves due to 3D heterogeneity near trench. To quantitatively model those 3D effects, we adopted a hybrid waveform simulation approach that computes the 3D wavefield in the source region by the Spectral Element Method (SEM) and then propagates the wavefield to teleseismic and shadow zone distances through the Direct Solution Method (DSM). We incorporated the GEBCO bathymetry and water layer into the SEM simulations and assumed the IASP91 1D model for DSM computation. Comparing with the poor 1D synthetics fitting to the data, we do obtain dramatic improvement in 3D waveform fittings across a

  11. One Basin, One Stress Regime, One Orientation of Seismogenic Basement Faults, Variable Spatio-Temporal Slip Histories: Lessons from Fort Worth Basin Induced Earthquake Sequences

    Science.gov (United States)

    DeShon, H. R.; Brudzinski, M.; Frohlich, C.; Hayward, C.; Jeong, S.; Hornbach, M. J.; Magnani, M. B.; Ogwari, P.; Quinones, L.; Scales, M. M.; Stump, B. W.; Sufri, O.; Walter, J. I.

    2017-12-01

    Since October 2008, the Fort Worth basin in north Texas has experienced over 30 magnitude (M) 3.0+ earthquakes, including one M4.0. Five named earthquake sequences have been recorded by local seismic networks: DFW Airport, Cleburne-Johnson County, Azle, Irving-Dallas, and Venus-Johnson County. Earthquakes have occurred on northeast (NE)-southwest (SW) trending Precambrian basement faults and within the overlying Ellenburger limestone unit used for wastewater disposal. Focal mechanisms indicate primarily normal faulting, and stress inversions indicate maximum regional horizontal stress strikes 20-30° NE. The seismogenic sections of the faults in either the basement or within the Ellenburger appear optimally oriented for failure within the modern stress regime. Stress drop estimates range from 10 to 75 bars, with little variability between and within the named sequences, and the values are consistent with intraplate earthquake stress drops in natural tectonic settings. However, the spatio-temporal history of each sequence relative to wastewater injection data varies. The May 2015 M4.0 Venus earthquake, for example, is only the largest of what is nearly 10 years of earthquake activity on a single fault structure. Here, maximum earthquake size has increased with time and exhibits a log-linear relationship to cumulative injected volume from 5 nearby wells. At the DFW airport, where the causative well was shut-in within a few months of the initial earthquakes and soon after the well began operation, we document migration away from the injector on the same fault for nearly 6 km sporadically over 5 years. The Irving-Dallas and Azle sequences, like DFW airport, appear to have started rather abruptly with just a few small magnitude earthquakes in the weeks or months preceding the significant set of magnitude 3.5+ earthquakes associated with each sequence. There are no nearby (<10 km) injection operations to the Irving-Dallas sequence and the Azle linked wells operated for

  12. Tweeting after an earthquake: user localization and communication patterns during the 2012 Emilia seismic sequence

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Francesca Comunello

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available The main goal of this paper is analysing how user’s location, relative to the epicenter of an earthquake, affects the different tweeting strategies adopted. For this purpose, we analyze a dataset of tweets that were generated around the 2012 Emilia earthquakes and that are geolocalized in Italy. In our analysis, we rely on existing literature on social media and natural disasters, considering literature exploring interactions and influence on Twitter, and literature focusing on the role of geolocalized user-generated information in disaster response.

  13. Performance of Earthquake Early Warning Systems during the Major Events of the 2016-2017 Central Italy Seismic Sequence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Festa, G.; Picozzi, M.; Alessandro, C.; Colombelli, S.; Cattaneo, M.; Chiaraluce, L.; Elia, L.; Martino, C.; Marzorati, S.; Supino, M.; Zollo, A.

    2017-12-01

    Earthquake early warning systems (EEWS) are systems nowadays contributing to the seismic risk mitigation actions, both in terms of losses and societal resilience, by issuing an alert promptly after the earthquake origin and before the ground shaking impacts the targets to be protected. EEWS systems can be grouped in two main classes: network based and stand-alone systems. Network based EEWS make use of dense seismic networks surrounding the fault (e.g. Near Fault Observatory; NFO) generating the event. The rapid processing of the P-wave early portion allows for the location and magnitude estimation of the event then used to predict the shaking through ground motion prediction equations. Stand-alone systems instead analyze the early P-wave signal to predict the ground shaking carried by the late S or surface waves, through empirically calibrated scaling relationships, at the recording site itself. We compared the network-based (PRESTo, PRobabilistic and Evolutionary early warning SysTem, www.prestoews.org, Satriano et al., 2011) and the stand-alone (SAVE, on-Site-Alert-leVEl, Caruso et al., 2017) systems, by analyzing their performance during the 2016-2017 Central Italy sequence. We analyzed 9 earthquakes having magnitude 5.0 data telemetry.

  14. Piecemeal Rupture of the Mentawai Patch, Sumatra: The 2008 Mw 7.2 North Pagai Earthquake Sequence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Salman, Rino; Hill, Emma M.; Feng, Lujia; Lindsey, Eric O.; Mele Veedu, Deepa; Barbot, Sylvain; Banerjee, Paramesh; Hermawan, Iwan; Natawidjaja, Danny H.

    2017-11-01

    The 25 February 2008 Mw 7.2 North Pagai earthquake partially ruptured the middle section of the Mentawai patch of the Sunda megathrust, offshore Sumatra. The patch has been forecast to generate a great earthquake in the next few decades. However, in the current cycle the patch has so far broken in a sequence of partial ruptures, one of which was the 2008 event, illustrating the potential of the patch to generate a spectrum of earthquake sizes. We estimate the coseismic slip distribution of the 2008 event by jointly inverting coseismic offsets from GPS and interferometric synthetic aperture radar. We then estimate afterslip with 5.6 years of cumulative GPS displacements. Our results suggest that the estimated afterslip partially overlaps the coseismic rupture. The overlap of coseismic rupture and afterslip can be explained conceptually by a simple rate-and-state model where the degree of overlapping is controlled by the dynamic weakening and the critical nucleation size in the velocity-weakening area. Comparing our rate-and-state model results with our geodetic inversion results, we suggest that the part of the coseismic rupture that does not overlap with the afterslip may represent a velocity-weakening region, while the overlapping part may represent a velocity-strengthening region.

  15. Comparing the Hawkes and Trigger process models for aftershock sequences following the 2005 Kashmir earthquake

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Türkyilmaz, K.; van Lieshout, Maria Nicolette Margaretha; Lieshout, M.N.M.; Stein, A.

    2013-01-01

    In an earlier study (Van Lieshout and Stein in Math Gesoci 44(3):309–326, 2012) we postulated the existence of two major earthquakes in the 2005 Kashmir disaster instead of a single one, based upon the pattern of aftershocks. In this study, we explore this hypothesis further by fitting several

  16. IDENTIFICATION OF EARTHQUAKE AFTERSHOCK AND SWARM SEQUENCES IN THE BAIKAL RIFT ZONE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N. A. Radziminovich

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available The catalog of earthquakes (КR³6.6 which occurred in the Baikal rift zone (BRZ was declastered, and the results are presented in the article. Aftershocks of seismic events (КR³12.5 were determined by the software developed by V.B. Smirnov (Lomonosov Moscow State University with application of the algorithm co-authored by G.M. Molchan and O.E. Dmitrieva. To ensure proper control of the software application, aftershocks were also selected manually. The results of declustering show that aftershocks of the earthquakes (КR³12.5 account for about 25 per cent of all seismic events in the regional catalog. Aftershocks accompanied 90 per cent of all the earthquakes considered as main shocks. Besides, earthquake swarms, including events with КR³11, were identified. The results of this study show that, in the BRZ, the swarms and strong events with aftershocks are not spatially separated, and this conclusion differs from the views of the previous studies that reviewed data from a shorter observation period. Moreover, it is noted that the swarms may consist of several main shocks accompanied by aftershocks. The data accumulated over the last fifty years of instrumental observations support the conclusion made earlier that the swarms in BRZ occur mainly in the north-eastward direction from Lake Baikal and also confirm the trend of a small number of aftershocks accompanying earthquakes in the south-western part of the Baikal rift zone.

  17. Time-clustering behavior in the sequence of the aftershocks of the Al-Hoceima (Morocco 24 February 2004 earthquake

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L. Telesca

    2009-12-01

    Full Text Available The time dynamics of the aftershock sequence of the Al-Hoceima (Morocco earthquake of 24 February 2004 has been investigated. The sequence of the occurrence times of the events with threshold magnitude Mth≥3.2 is characterized by a time-clustering behavior, identified using different fractal methods (Fano Factor, Allan Factor, Count-based Periodogram, well suited to reveal scaling features in point processes. The obtained results not only show the presence of memory phenomena and correlation structures in the Al-Hoceima aftershocks, but also furnish quantitatively the estimate of the magnitude of such correlation by means of the estimate of the scaling exponent α.

  18. Foreshocks and delayed triggering of the 2016 MW7.1 Te Araroa earthquake and dynamic reinvigoration of its aftershock sequence by the MW7.8 Kaikōura earthquake, New Zealand

    Science.gov (United States)

    Warren-Smith, Emily; Fry, Bill; Kaneko, Yoshihiro; Chamberlain, Calum J.

    2018-01-01

    We analyze the preparatory period of the September 2016 MW7.1 Te Araroa foreshock-mainshock sequence in the Northern Hikurangi margin, New Zealand, and subsequent reinvigoration of Te Araroa aftershocks driven by a large distant earthquake (the November 2016 MW7.8 Kaikōura earthquake). By adopting a matched-filter detection workflow using 582 well-defined template events, we generate an improved foreshock and aftershock catalog for the Te Araroa sequence (>8,000 earthquakes over 66 d). Templates characteristic of the MW7.1 sequence (including the mainshock template) detect several highly correlating events (ML2.5-3.5) starting 12 min after a MW5.7 foreshock. These pre-cursory events occurred within ∼1 km of the mainshock and migrate bilaterally, suggesting precursory slip was triggered by the foreshock on the MW7.1 fault patch prior to mainshock failure. We extend our matched-filter routine to examine the interactions between high dynamic stresses resulting from passing surface waves of the November 2016 MW7.8 Kaikōura earthquake, and the evolution of the Te Araroa aftershock sequence. We observe a sudden spike in moment release of the aftershock sequence immediately following peak dynamic Coulomb stresses of 50-150 kPa on the MW7.1 fault plane. The triggered increase in moment release culminated in a MW5.1 event, immediately followed by a ∼3 h temporal stress shadow. Our observations document the preparatory period of a major subduction margin earthquake following a significant foreshock, and quantify dynamic reinvigoration of a distant on-going major aftershock sequence amid a period of temporal clustering of seismic activity in New Zealand.

  19. A tectonic earthquake sequence preceding the April-May 1999 eruption of Shishaldin Volcano, Alaska

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moran, S. C.; Stihler, S. D.; Power, J. A.

    2002-06-01

    On 4 March 1999, a shallow ML 5.2 earthquake occurred beneath Unimak Island in the Aleutian Arc. This earthquake was located 10-15 km west of Shishaldin Volcano, a large, frequently active basaltic-andesite stratovolcano. A Strombolian eruption began at Shishaldin roughly 1 month after the mainshock, culminating in a large explosive eruption on 19 April. We address the question of whether or not the eruption caused the mainshock by computing the Coulomb stress change caused by an inflating dike on fault planes oriented parallel to the mainshock focal mechanism. We found Coulomb stress increases of 0.1 MPa in the region of the mainshock, suggesting that magma intrusion prior to the eruption could have caused the mainshock. Satellite and seismic data indicate that magma was moving upwards beneath Shishaldin well before the mainshock, indicating that, in an overall sense, the mainshock cannot be said to have caused the eruption. However, observations of changes at the volcano following the mainshock and several large aftershocks suggest that the earthquakes may, in turn, have influenced the course of the eruption.

  20. New insights on co- and post-seismic deformation and slip behavior associated with the Mw7.8 2016 Pedernales, Ecuador earthquake and its aftershock sequence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Soto-Cordero, L.; Nealy, J. L.; Meltzer, A.; Agurto-Detzel, H.; Alvarado, A. P.; Beck, S. L.; Benz, H.; Bergman, E. A.; Charvis, P.; Font, Y.; Hayes, G. P.; Hernandez, S.; Hoskins, M.; Leon Rios, S.; Lynner, C.; Regnier, M. M.; Rietbrock, A.; Stachnik, J. C.; Yeck, W. L.

    2017-12-01

    On April 16, 2016, a Mw7.8 earthquake, associated with oblique subduction of the Nazca Plate under South America, ruptured a segment approximately 130x100km in the region north of the intersection of the Carnegie ridge with the Ecuador subduction zone. The rupture coincides with the rupture area of the Mw7.8 1942 earthquake. To characterize the aftershock sequence, we analyze seismic data recorded by 30 stations from April 17, 2016 to May 8, 2017; 11 stations belong to Ecuador's national network and 19 are part of a PASSCAL temporary deployment. We apply a kurtosis detector to obtain automatic P- and S-wave picks. Earthquake locations, magnitudes, and regional moment tensors are obtained using the U.S. Geological Survey National Earthquake Information Center (NEIC) processing system. We also determine calibrated relocations using the Hypocentroidal Decomposition approach for a subset of events for which we combine phase readings from local and temporary PASSCAL stations with regional and teleseismic phase readings from the NEIC. In contrast with other earthquake relocation approaches, this method evaluates absolute location uncertainties for each event in the cluster, which allows us to more confidently assess the relationships between mainshock slip and aftershock activity. We find the aftershock sequence is characterized by a series of event clusters that predominantly surround the main rupture patches. However, the aftershocks extend beyond the mainshock rupture area, covering a region approximately 250x100km. Aftershocks north of the 2016 rupture fall in the rupture area of the Mw7.7 1958 earthquake. The southernmost region of elevated seismicity occurs south of a region of low coupling where the Carnegie ridge meets the subduction zone. The characterization of this sequence allows a detailed spatial and temporal analysis of the rupture processes, stress patterns and slip behavior during this earthquake sequence in Ecuador subduction zone.

  1. Decisionmaking in hospital earthquake evacuation: Does distance from the epicenter matter?

    OpenAIRE

    Schultz, Carl H. MD; Koenig, Kristi L. MD; Lewis, Roger J. MD, PhD

    2007-01-01

    Study objective: Over large expanses, the risk for hospital damage from an earthquake attenuates as the distance from the epicenter increases, which may not be true within the immediate disaster zone (near field), however. The following study examines the impact of epicenter distance and ground motion on hospital evacuation and closure for those structures near the epicenter of the 1994 Northridge Earthquake and the implications for patient evacuation. Methods: This is a retrospectiv...

  2. Characterization of earthquake-induced ground motion from the L'Aquila seismic sequence of 2009, Italy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Malagnini, Luca; Akinci, Aybige; Mayeda, Kevin; Munafo', Irene; Herrmann, Robert B.; Mercuri, Alessia

    2011-01-01

    Based only on weak-motion data, we carried out a combined study on region-specific source scaling and crustal attenuation in the Central Apennines (Italy). Our goal was to obtain a reappraisal of the existing predictive relationships for the ground motion, and to test them against the strong-motion data [peak ground acceleration (PGA), peak ground velocity (PGV) and spectral acceleration (SA)] gathered during the Mw 6.15 L'Aquila earthquake (2009 April 6, 01:32 UTC). The L'Aquila main shock was not part of the predictive study, and the validation test was an extrapolation to one magnitude unit above the largest earthquake of the calibration data set. The regional attenuation was determined through a set of regressions on a data set of 12 777 high-quality, high-gain waveforms with excellent S/N ratios (4259 vertical and 8518 horizontal time histories). Seismograms were selected from the recordings of 170 foreshocks and aftershocks of the sequence (the complete set of all earthquakes with ML≥ 3.0, from 2008 October 1 to 2010 May 10). All waveforms were downloaded from the ISIDe web page (), a web site maintained by the Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV). Weak-motion data were used to obtain a moment tensor solution, as well as a coda-based moment-rate source spectrum, for each one of the 170 events of the L'Aquila sequence (2.8 ≤Mw≤ 6.15). Source spectra were used to verify the good agreement with the source scaling of the Colfiorito seismic sequence of 1997-1998 recently described by Malagnini (2008). Finally, results on source excitation and crustal attenuation were used to produce the absolute site terms for the 23 stations located within ˜80 km of the epicentral area. The complete set of spectral corrections (crustal attenuation and absolute site effects) was used to implement a fast and accurate tool for the automatic computation of moment magnitudes in the Central Apennines.

  3. Spectra of the earthquake sequence February-March, 1981, in south-central Sweden

    OpenAIRE

    O. Kulhánek; T. van Eck; N. John; K. Meyer; Rutger Wahlström

    1983-01-01

    On February 13, 1981, a relatively strong earthquake occurred in the Lake Vanern region in south-central Sweden. The shock had a magnitude of M"SUB L" = 3.3 and was followed within three weeks by three aftershocks, with magnitudes 0.5 = or < M"SUB L" = or < 1.0. The focal mechanism solution of the main shock indicates reverse faulting with a strike in the N-S or NE-SW direction and a nearly horizontal compressional stress. The aftershocks were too small to yield data for a full mechanism solu...

  4. Using regional moment tensors to constrain the kinematics and stress evolution of the 2010–2013 Canterbury earthquake sequence, South Island, New Zealand

    Science.gov (United States)

    Herman, Matthew W.; Herrmann, Robert B.; Benz, Harley M.; Furlong, Kevin P.

    2014-01-01

    On September 3, 2010, a MW 7.0 (U.S. Geological Survey moment magnitude) earthquake ruptured across the Canterbury Plains in South Island, New Zealand. Since then, New Zealand GNS Science has recorded over 10,000 aftershocks ML 2.0 and larger, including three destructive ~ MW 6.0 earthquakes near Christchurch. We treat the Canterbury earthquake sequence as an intraplate earthquake sequence, and compare its kinematics to an Andersonian model for fault slip in a uniform stress field. We determined moment magnitudes and double couple solutions for 150 earthquakes having MW 3.7 and larger through the use of a waveform inversion technique using data from broadband seismic stations on South Island, New Zealand. The majority (126) of these double couple solutions have strike-slip focal mechanisms, with right-lateral slip on ENE fault planes or equivalently left-lateral slip on SSE fault planes. The remaining focal mechanisms indicate reverse faulting, except for two normal faulting events. The strike-slip segments have compatible orientations for slip in a stress field with a horizontal σ1 oriented ~ N115°E, and horizontal σ3. The preference for right lateral strike-slip earthquakes suggests that these structures are inherited from previous stages of deformation. Reverse slip is interpreted to have occurred on previously existing structures in regions with an absence of existing structures optimally oriented for strike-slip deformation. Despite the variations in slip direction and faulting style, most aftershocks had nearly the same P-axis orientation, consistent with the regional σ1. There is no evidence for significant changes in these stress orientations throughout the Canterbury earthquake sequence.

  5. Seismic evidence of conjugate normal faulting: The 1994 Devil Canyon earthquake sequence near Challis, Idaho

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jackson, S.M.

    1994-08-01

    In this study, the term ''conjugate'' refers to faults that occur in two intersecting sets and coordinated kinematically, with each set being distinctive in both orientation and sense of shear (Davis, 1984). Contemporaneous activity along the conjugate faults is defined as occurring within the time frame of the mainshock-aftershock sequence (three weeks for this sequence and generally less than one month in other observed cases). Detailed recordings of microearthquakes from a dense array of temporary analog seismic stations are analyzed. The focal mechanisms and hypocenter spatial and temporal characteristics are combined with geological information to assess the style, geometry, timing, kinematics, and mechanics of conjugate normal faulting. The characteristics of conjugate normal faulting observed in the Devil Canyon sequence are compared to other conjugate normal faulting sequences, and strike-slip and thrust conjugate sequences worldwide

  6. The induced earthquake sequence related to the St. Gallen deep geothermal project (Switzerland): Fault reactivation and fluid interactions imaged by microseismicity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Diehl, T.; Kraft, T.; Kissling, E.; Wiemer, S.

    2017-09-01

    In July 2013, a sequence of more than 340 earthquakes was induced by reservoir stimulations and well-control procedures following a gas kick at a deep geothermal drilling project close to the city of St. Gallen, Switzerland. The sequence culminated in an ML 3.5 earthquake, which was felt within 10-15 km from the epicenter. High-quality earthquake locations and 3-D reflection seismic data acquired in the St. Gallen project provide a unique data set, which allows high-resolution studies of earthquake triggering related to the injection of fluids into macroscopic fault zones. In this study, we present a high-precision earthquake catalog of the induced sequence. Absolute locations are constrained by a coupled hypocenter-velocity inversion, and subsequent double-difference relocations image the geometry of the ML 3.5 rupture and resolve the spatiotemporal evolution of seismicity. A joint interpretation of earthquake and seismic data shows that the majority of the seismicity occurred in the pre-Mesozoic basement, hundreds of meters below the borehole and the targeted Mesozoic sequence. We propose a hydraulic connectivity between the reactivated fault and the borehole, likely through faults mapped by seismic data. Despite the excellent quality of the seismic data, the association of seismicity with mapped faults remains ambiguous. In summary, our results document that the actual hydraulic properties of a fault system and hydraulic connections between its fault segments are complex and may not be predictable upfront. Incomplete knowledge of fault structures and stress heterogeneities within highly complex fault systems additionally challenge the degree of predictability of induced seismicity related to underground fluid injections.

  7. Possibility of the real-time dynamic strain field monitoring deduced from GNSS data: case study of the 2016 Kumamoto earthquake sequence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ohta, Y.; Ohzono, M.; Takahashi, H.; Kawamoto, S.; Hino, R.

    2017-12-01

    A large and destructive earthquake (Mjma 7.3) occurred on April 15, 2016 in Kumamoto region, southwestern Japan. This earthquake was accompanied approximately 32 s later by an M 6 earthquake in central Oita region, which hypocenter located 80 km northeast from the hypocenter of the mainshock of the Kumamoto earthquake. This triggered earthquake also had the many aftershocks in and around the Oita region. It is important to understand how to occur such chain-reacted earthquake sequences. We used the 1Hz dual-frequency phase and range data from GEONET in Kyushu island. The data were processed using GIPSY-OASIS (version 6.4). We adopoted kinematic PPP strategy for the coordinate estimation. The reference GPS satellite orbit and 5 s clock information were obtained using the CODE product. We also applied simple sidereal filter technique for the estimated time series. Based on the obtained 1Hz GNSS time series, we estimated the areal strain and principle strain field using the method of the Shen et al. (1996). For the assessment of the dynamic strain, firstly we calculated the averaged absolute value of areal strain field between 60-85s after the origin time of the mainshock of the Kumamoto earthquake which was used as the "reference" static strain field. Secondly, we estimated the absolute value of areal strain in each time step. Finally, we calculated the strain ratio in each time step relative to the "reference". Based on this procedure, we can extract the spatial and temporal characteristic of the dynamic strain in each time step. Extracted strain ratio clearly shows the spatial and temporal dynamic strain characteristic. When an attention is paid to a region of triggered Oita earthquake, the timing of maximum dynamic strain ratio in the epicenter just corresponds to the origin time of the triggered event. It strongly suggested that the large dynamic strain may trigger the Oita event. The epicenter of the triggered earthquake located within the geothermal region. In

  8. Changes in state of stress on the southern san andreas fault resulting from the california earthquake sequence of april to june 1992.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jaumé, S C; Sykes, L R

    1992-11-20

    The April to June 1992 Landers earthquake sequence in southern California modified the state of stress along nearby segments of the San Andreas fault, causing a 50-kilometer segment of the fault to move significantly closer to failure where it passes through a compressional bend near San Gorgonio Pass. The decrease in compressive normal stress may also have reduced fluid pressures along that fault segment. As pressures are reequilibrated by diffusion, that fault segment should move closer to failure with time. That fault segment and another to the southeast probably have not ruptured in a great earthquake in about 300 years.

  9. Viscoelastic lower crust and mantle relaxation following the 14–16 April 2016 Kumamoto, Japan, earthquake sequence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pollitz, Fred; Kobayashi, Tomokazu; Yarai, Hiroshi; Shibazaki, Bunichiro; Matsumoto, Takumi

    2017-01-01

    The 2016 Kumamoto, Japan, earthquake sequence, culminating in the Mw=7.0 16 April 2016 main shock, occurred within an active tectonic belt of central Kyushu. GPS data from GEONET reveal transient crustal motions from several millimeters per year up to ∼3 cm/yr during the first 8.5 months following the sequence. The spatial pattern of horizontal postseismic motions is shaped by both shallow afterslip and viscoelastic relaxation of the lower crust and upper mantle. We construct a suite of 2-D regional viscoelastic structures in order to derive an optimal joint afterslip and viscoelastic relaxation model using forward modeling of the viscoelastic relaxation. We find that afterslip dominates the postseismic relaxation in the near field (within 30 km of the main shock epicenter), while viscoelastic relaxation dominates at greater distance. The viscoelastic modeling strongly favors a very weak lower crust below a ∼65 km wide zone coinciding with the Beppu-Shimabara graben and the locus of central Kyushu volcanism. Inferred uppermost mantle viscosity is relatively low beneath southern Kyushu, consistent with independent inferences of a hydrated mantle wedge within the Nankai trough fore -arc.

  10. Complex rupture process of the Mw 7.8, 2016, Kaikoura earthquake, New Zealand, and its aftershock sequence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cesca, S.; Zhang, Y.; Mouslopoulou, V.; Wang, R.; Saul, J.; Savage, M.; Heimann, S.; Kufner, S.-K.; Oncken, O.; Dahm, T.

    2017-11-01

    The M7.8 Kaikoura Earthquake that struck the northeastern South Island, New Zealand, on November 14, 2016 (local time), is one of the largest ever instrumentally recorded earthquakes in New Zealand. It occurred at the southern termination of the Hikurangi subduction margin, where the subducting Pacific Plate transitions into the dextral Alpine transform fault. The earthquake produced significant distributed uplift along the north-eastern part of the South Island, reaching a peak amplitude of ∼8 m, which was accompanied by large (≥10 m) horizontal coseismic displacements at the ground surface along discrete active faults. The seismic waveforms' expression of the main shock indicate a complex rupture process. Early automated centroid moment tensor solutions indicated a strong non-double-couple term, which supports a complex rupture involving multiple faults. The hypocentral distribution of aftershocks, which appears diffuse over a broad region, clusters spatially along lineaments with different orientations. A key question of global interest is to shed light on the mechanism with which such a complex rupture occurred, and whether the underlying plate-interface was involved in the rupture. The consequences for seismic hazard of such a distributed, shallow faulting is important to be assessed. We perform a broad seismological analysis, combining regional and teleseismic seismograms, GPS and InSAR, to determine the rupture process of the main shock and moment tensors of 118 aftershocks down to Mw 4.2. The joint interpretation of the main rupture and aftershock sequence allow reconstruction of the geometry, and suggests sequential activation and slip distribution on at least three major active fault domains. We find that the rupture nucleated as a weak strike-slip event along the Humps Fault, which progressively propagated northward onto a shallow reverse fault, where most of the seismic moment was released, before it triggered slip on a second set of strike

  11. Strategic crisis and risk communication during a prolonged natural hazard event: lessons learned from the Canterbury earthquake sequence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wein, A. M.; Potter, S.; Becker, J.; Doyle, E. E.; Jones, J. L.

    2015-12-01

    While communication products are developed for monitoring and forecasting hazard events, less thought may have been given to crisis and risk communication plans. During larger (and rarer) events responsible science agencies may find themselves facing new and intensified demands for information and unprepared for effectively resourcing communications. In a study of the communication of aftershock information during the 2010-12 Canterbury Earthquake Sequence (New Zealand), issues are identified and implications for communication strategy noted. Communication issues during the responses included reliability and timeliness of communication channels for immediate and short decision time frames; access to scientists by those who needed information; unfamiliar emergency management frameworks; information needs of multiple audiences, audience readiness to use the information; and how best to convey empathy during traumatic events and refer to other information sources about what to do and how to cope. Other science communication challenges included meeting an increased demand for earthquake education, getting attention on aftershock forecasts; responding to rumor management; supporting uptake of information by critical infrastructure and government and for the application of scientific information in complex societal decisions; dealing with repetitive information requests; addressing diverse needs of multiple audiences for scientific information; and coordinating communications within and outside the science domain. For a science agency, a communication strategy would consider training scientists in communication, establishing relationships with university scientists and other disaster communication roles, coordinating messages, prioritizing audiences, deliberating forecasts with community leaders, identifying user needs and familiarizing them with the products ahead of time, and practicing the delivery and use of information via scenario planning and exercises.

  12. Damage potential characteristics of near-field earthquake motions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Park, Y.; Chokshi, N.

    1997-01-01

    In recent major earthquakes; i.e., 1994 Northridge earthquake in the US and 1995 Great Kansai earthquake in Japan, several close-distance strong ground motions have been obtained, which may be of significant interest to earthquake/structural engineers. The damage potential of those recently obtained ground motions is examined based on the nonlinear response analyses of various SDOF systems. For comparison purposes, the El Centro records from the 1940 Imperial Valley earthquake, as well as a set of artificial motions consistent with the R.G. 1.60 spectrum were also used. The engineering insights regarding the seismic design of structures are discussed based on a series of parametric studies

  13. The 2008 Methoni earthquake sequence: the relationship between the earthquake cycle on the subduction interface and coastal uplift in SW Greece

    Science.gov (United States)

    Howell, Andy; Palamartchouk, Kirill; Papanikolaou, Xanthos; Paradissis, Demitris; Raptakis, Costas; Copley, Alex; England, Philip; Jackson, James

    2017-03-01

    Seismological, GPS and historical data suggest that most of the 40 mm yr-1 convergence at the Hellenic Subduction Zone is accommodated through aseismic creep, with earthquakes of MW ≲ 7 rupturing isolated locked patches of the subduction interface. The size and location of these locked patches are poorly constrained despite their importance for assessment of seismic hazard. We present continuous GPS time-series covering the 2008 MW 6.9 Methoni earthquake, the largest earthquake on the subduction interface since 1960. Post-seismic displacements from this earthquake at onshore GPS sites are comparable in magnitude with the coseismic displacements; elastic-dislocation modelling shows that they are consistent with afterslip on the subduction interface, suggesting that much of this part of the interface is able to slip aseismically and is not locked and accumulating elastic strain. In the Hellenic and other subduction zones, the relationship between earthquakes on the subduction interface and observed long-term coastal uplift is poorly understood. We use cGPS-measured coseismic offsets and seismological body-waveform modelling to constrain centroid locations and depths for the 2008 Methoni MW 6.9 and 2013 Crete MW 6.5 earthquakes, showing that the subduction interface reaches the base of the seismogenic layer SW of the coast of Greece. These earthquakes caused subsidence of the coast in regions where the presence of Pliocene-Quaternary marine terraces indicates recent uplift, so we conclude that deformation associated with the earthquake cycle on the subduction interface is not the dominant control on vertical motions of the coastline. It is likely that minor uplift on a short length scale (∼15 km) occurs in the footwalls of normal faults. We suggest, however, that most of the observed Plio-Quaternary coastal uplift in SW Greece is the result of thickening of the overriding crust of the Aegean by reverse faulting or distributed shortening in the accretionary wedge

  14. Source mechanisms of the 2004 Baladeh (Iran) earthquake sequence from Iranian broadband and short-period data and seismotectonic implications

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Donner, S.; Rössler, Dirk; Krüger, F.

    -SSW oriented shortening. On 28th of May 2004 the Mw 6.3 Baladeh earthquake hit the north-central Alborz Mountains. It is one of the rare and large events in this region in modern time and thus a seldom chance to study earthquake mechanisms and the local ongoing deformation processes. It also demonstrated...

  15. The Al Hoceima earthquake sequence of 1994, 2004 and 2016: Stress transfer and poroelasticity in the Rif and Alboran Sea region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kariche, J.; Meghraoui, M.; Timoulali, Y.; Cetin, E.; Toussaint, R.

    2018-01-01

    The 2016 January 25 earthquake (Mw 6.3) follows in sequence from the1994 May 26 earthquake (Mw 6.0) and the 2004 February 24 earthquake (Mw 6.4) in the Rif Mountains and Alboran Sea. The earlier two seismic events which were destructive took place on inland conjugate faults, and the third event occurred on an offshore fault. These earthquake sequences occurred within a period of 22 yr at ˜25 km distance and 11-16-km depth. The three events have similar strike-slip focal mechanism solutions with NNE-SSW trending left-lateral faulting for the 1994 and 2016 events and NW-SE trending right-lateral faulting for the 2004 event. This shallow seismic sequence offers the possibility (i) to model the change in Coulomb Failure Function (ΔCFF with low μ΄ including the pore pressure change) and understand fault-rupture interaction, and (ii) to analyse the effect of pore fluid on the rupture mechanism, and infer the clock-time advance. The variation of static stress change has a direct impact on the main shock, aftershocks and related positive lobes of the 2004 earthquake rupture with a stress change increase of 0.7-1.1 bar. Similarly, the 2004 main shock and aftershocks indicate loading zones with a stress change (>0.25 bar) that includes the 2016 earthquake rupture. The tectonic loading of 19-24 nanostrain yr-1 obtained from the seismicity catalogue of Morocco is comparable to the 5.0 × 1017 N.m yr-1 seismic strain release in the Rif Mountains. The seismic sequence is apparently controlled by the poroelastic properties of the seismogenic layer that depend on the undrained and drained fluid conditions. The short interseismic period between main shocks and higher rate of aftershocks with relatively large magnitudes (4 < Mw < 5.5) implies the pore-fluid physical effect in undrained and drained conditions. The stress-rate ranges between 461 and 582 Pa yr-1 with a ΔCFF of 0.2-1.1 bar. The computed clock-time advance reaches 239 ± 22 yr in agreement with the ˜10 yr delay

  16. Succession of earthquakes in the Ebro Delta. A sequence to research pupils’ ideas and the prac tice of using evidence

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Blanca Puig Mauriz

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available A “socially live” issue related to Geology is dealt with: the controversy surrounding the succession of earthquakes in the Ebro Delta (Spain. This article examines both students’ ideas about earthquakes and the practice of using evidence in the context of choosing a causal explanation of Delta’s earthquakes. The study is part of the researches on reasoning about socioscientific issues in Geology. Three groups are involved: one belonging to CSE 4th grade (students aged from 16 to 17 and two to baccalaureate 1st grade (aged from 17 to 18. The results indicate that most of students understand an earthquake as a common phenomenon, and relate it exclusively to the tectonics plates. Regarding the controversy of Ebro Delta most choose as the cause of earthquakes the combination of natural causes and human activity, and focus on building an explanation, rather than justify their choice based on evidence.

  17. Segmented seismicity of the Mw 6.2 Baladeh earthquake sequence (Alborz mountains, Iran) revealed from regional moment tensors

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Donner, Stefanie; Rössler, Dirk; Krüger, Frank

    2013-01-01

    The M w 6.2 Baladeh earthquake occurred on 28 May 2004 in the Alborz Mountains, northern Iran. This earthquake was the first strong shock in this intracontinental orogen for which digital regional broadband data are available. The Baladeh event provides a rare opportunity to study fault geometry...... model, regional waveform data of the mainshock and larger aftershocks (M w  ≥3.3) were inverted for moment tensors. For the Baladeh mainshock, this included inversion for kinematic parameters. All analysed earthquakes show dominant thrust mechanisms at depths between 14 and 26 km, with NW–SE striking...

  18. The 14 August 2003 Lefkada Island (Greece) earthquake: Focal mechanisms of the mainshock and of the aftershock sequence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Benetatos, C.; Kiratzi, A.; Roumelioti, Z.; Stavrakakis, G.; Drakatos, G.; Latoussakis, I.

    The central area of the Ionian Sea is dominated by the Cephalonia Transform Fault Zone (CTFZ) with a pronounced dextral strike-slip component of motion. The CTFZ has two main segments: the Lefkada Segment (LS) in the north and the Cephalonia Segment (CS) in the south. On 14 August 2003 an Mw 6.2 earthquake ruptured the Lefkada Segment and produced extensive damage, especially to the western coast of the island. Teleseismic waveform modelling revealed the multiple source character of the mainshock, which occurred as three sub-events along a ˜N12°E line. The first sub-event occurred at a depth of about 15 km, followed 2.5 s later by the second and largest sub-event at a depth of 11 km and the third sub-event 14 s after the second at a depth of 15 km. The total moment from the body waves of this sequence is about 22.3×1017 Nt m (Mw 6.2) with a source duration of ˜15 s. The rupture started at the northern part of the Lefkada fault Segment and propagated southwards. The second and third sub-events are located at 7 and 40 km to the south-east in respect to the first sub-event. The focal mechanisms of the two strongest sources indicate strike-slip faulting along the NE-SW trending Lefkada segment (sub-event 2: Strike = 12°, Dip = 81°, Rake = 174°; sub-event 3: Strike = 20°, Dip = 63°, Rake = -179°). Moment tensor inversion applied to regional broad band waveforms obtained from the Greek National Seismographic Network provided focal mechanisms for 23 aftershocks with magnitudes ranging from Mw 3.6 to 5.4. The aftershock sequence presented spatial and temporal variation. The aftershocks were concentrated in two clusters one at the northern part of the activated area and another at the southern part. Most of them were of strike-slip character, following the major tectonic lines of the area, although low-angle thrust and reverse faulting mechanisms were also observed. Thrust and reverse type mechanisms are mainly concentrated in the northern and mainland part of the

  19. Seismicity of the 24 May 2014 Mw 7.0 Aegean Sea earthquake sequence along the North Aegean Trough

    Science.gov (United States)

    Görgün, Ethem; Görgün, Burçak

    2015-11-01

    The northern Aegean Sea was hit by a large size (Mw = 7.0) earthquake on 2014 May 24. Centroid moment tensor solutions for 40 events with moment magnitudes (Mw) between 3.3 and 7.0 are computed by applying a waveform inversion method on data from the Turkish and Greek broadband seismic networks. The time span of data covers the period between 2014 May 24 and 2014 June 26. The mainshock is a shallow focus strike-slip event at a depth of 15 km. Focal depths of aftershocks range from 6 to 30 km. The seismic moment (Mo) of the mainshock is estimated as 4.60 × 1019 Nm. The calculated rupture duration of the North Aegean Sea mainshock is 40 s. The focal mechanisms of the aftershocks are mainly strike-slip faulting with a minor normal component. The geometry of focal mechanisms reveals a strike-slip faulting regime with NE-SW trending direction of T-axis in the entire activated region. A stress tensor inversion of focal mechanism data is performed to acquire a more accurate picture of the northern Aegean Sea stress field along the North Aegean Trough. The stress tensor inversion results indicate a predominant strike-slip stress regime with a NW-SE oriented maximum principal compressive stress (σ1). In the development of the North Aegean Trough in Aegean Sea is in good agreement with the resolved stress tensors. With respect the newly determined focal mechanisms, the effect of the propagating of the North Anatolian Fault into Aegean Sea is very clearly pronounced. According to high-resolution hypocenter relocation of the North Aegean Sea seismic sequence, three main clusters are revealed. The aftershock activity in the observation period between 2014 May 24 and 2014 July 31 extends from the mainshock cluster from NE to the SW direction. Seismic cross-sections indicate that a complex pattern of the hypocenter distribution with the activation of seventeen segments. The eastern cluster is associated with a fault plane trending mainly ENE-WSW and dipping vertical, while the

  20. The role of complex site and basin response in Wellington city, New Zealand, during the 2016 Mw 7.8 Kaikōura earthquake and other recent earthquake sequences.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaiser, A. E.; McVerry, G.; Wotherspoon, L.; Bradley, B.; Gerstenberger, M.; Benites, R. A.; Bruce, Z.; Bourguignon, S.; Giallini, S.; Hill, M.

    2017-12-01

    We present analysis of ground motion and complex amplification characteristics in Wellington during recent earthquake sequences and an overview of the 3D basin characterization and ongoing work to update site parameters for seismic design. Significant damage was observed in central Wellington, New Zealand's capital city, following the 2016 Mw7.8 Kaikōura earthquake. Damage was concentrated in mid-rise structures (5 - 15 storeys) and was clearly exacerbated by the particular characteristics of ground motion and the presence of basin effects. Due to the distance of the source (50 - 60km) from the central city, peak ground accelerations were moderate (up to 0.28g) and well within ultimate limit state (ULS) design levels. However, spectral accelerations within the 1 -2 s period range, exceeded 1 in 500 year design level spectra (ULS) in deeper parts of the basin. Amplification with respect to rock at these locations reached factors of up to 7, and was also observed with factors up to at least three across all central city soil recording sites. The ground motions in Wellington were the strongest recorded in the modern era of instrumentation. While similar amplification was observed during the 2013 Mw 6.6 Cook Strait and Grassmere earthquakes, which struck close to the termination of the Kaikōura earthquake rupture, these sources were not sufficiently large to excite significant long-period motions. However, other M7.2+ sources in the region that dominate the seismic hazard, e.g. Wellington Fault, Hikurangi subduction interface and other large proximal crustal faults, are also potentially capable of exciting significant long-period basin response in Wellington. These observations and the expectation of ongoing heightened seismicity have prompted re-evaluation of the current seismic demand levels. Additional field campaigns have also been undertaken to update geotechnical properties and the 3D basin model, in order to inform ongoing research and seismic design practice.

  1. Preliminary report on aftershock sequence for earthquake of January 31, 1986, near Painesville, Ohio (time period: 2/1/86-2/10/86)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Borcherdt, R.D.

    1986-01-01

    A ten-station array of broad-band digital instrumentation (GEOS) was deployed by the U. S. Geological Survey with partial support provided by Electric Power Research Institute to record the aftershock sequence of the moderate (mb ~ 4.9) earthquake that occurred on January 31, 1986 (16:46:43 UTC) near Painesville, Ohio. The occurrence of the event has raised questions concerning possible contributory factors to the occurrence of the event and questions concerning the character of earthquake-induced high-frequency ground motions in the area. To aid in the timely resolution of the implications of some of these questions, this preliminary report provides copies of the ground motion time-histories and corresponding spectra for the six identified aftershocks and two events, thought to be quarry blasts, recorded as of February 10, 1986. Recording station locations and epicenter locations based on two preliminary estimates of local seismic velocity structure are provided.

  2. Seismicity in northeast edge of the Mexican Volcanic Belt (MVB), activation of an undocumented fault: the Peñamiller earthquake sequence of 2011, Queretaro, Mexico

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clemente-Chavez, A.; Figueroa-Soto, A.; Zúñiga, F. R.; Arroyo, M.; Montiel, M.; Chavez, O.

    2013-02-01

    The Peñamiller town, in the Queretaro state, Mexico is located at the northeast border of the seismogenic zone known as the Mexican Volcanic Belt (MVB), which covers a central fringe of Mexico with east-west orientation. In this town, a sequence of small earthquakes occurred during the end of 2010 and beginning of 2011. Seismicity frequent in of the continental regimen of central Mexico are not common, however, it is known that there are precedents of large earthquakes (Mw magnitude greater than 6.0) occurring in this zone. In order to enrich seismic information, which has not been analyzed nor documented until this moment, is presented this work. This will contribute to gain more insight into the tectonic situation of the central Mexico region. Twenty-four shallow earthquakes records of the Peñamiller, Queretaro seismic sequence of 2011 were recorded by a provisional accelerograph network from the Universidad Autonoma de Queretaro (UAQ). The data were analysed in order to determine the source locations and for the estimation of the source parameters. The study was carried out through an inversion process and by spectral analysis. The results show that the largest earthquake, occurred on 8 February 2011 at 19:53:48.6 UTC, had a moment magnitude Mw = 3.5, and was located at latitude 21.039° and longitude -99.752°, at a depth of 5.6 km. This zone is located less than 7 km away in south-east direction from downtown Peñamiller. The focal mechanisms are mostly normal faults with a small lateral component. This feature is consistent with the extensional regimen of the southern extension of the Basin and Range (BR) province. The source area of the largest event was estimated to have a radius of 0.5 km, which corresponds to a normal fault with azimuth of 174° and an almost pure dip slip; this caused Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA) of up to 100 cm s-2 in the horizontal direction. It is evident that the shallow earthquakes induced by crustal faulting can present a

  3. The Cephalonia, Ionian Sea (Greece, sequence of strong earthquakes of January-February 2014: a first report

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gerassimos A. Papadopoulos

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available On 26.1.2014 and 3.2.2014 two strong earthquakes of Mw6.0 and Mw5.9 ruptured the western Cephalonia Isl., Ionian Sea (Greece, at the SSW-wards continuation of the Lefkada segment of the Cephalonia Transform Fault Zone (CTFZ, causing considerable damage and a variety of ground failures. High-precision relocation of the aftershocks implies that the seismogenic layer was of 35 km in length (L striking NNE-SSW, of 10 km maximum in width and 15 km in thickness. Two aftershock spatial clusters were revealed at north (L1~10 km and at south (L2~25 km. However, no time correlation was found between the two clusters and the two strong earthquakes. Fitting the temporal evolution of aftershocks to the Omori-law showed slow aftershock decay. Fault plane solutions produced by moment tensor inversions indicated that the strong earthquakes as well as a plenty of aftershocks (Mw≥4.0 were associated with dextral strikeslip faulting with some thrust component and preferred fault planes striking about NNE-SSW. Average fault plane parameters obtained for the three largest events are: strike 21(±20, dip 65.5(±30, slip 173(±30. Broadband P-wave teleseismic records were inverted for understanding the rupture histories. It was found that the earthquake of 26.1.2014 had a complex source time function with c. 62 cm maximum slip, source duration of ~12 s and downwards rupture. Most of the slip was concentrated on a 13x9 km fault rupture. The earthquake of 3.2.2014 had a relatively simple source time function related with one big patch of slip with maximum slip c. 45 cm, with 10 s source duration. The rupture was directed upwards which along with the shallow focus (~5 km and the simple source time function may explain the significantly larger (0.77 g PGA recorded with the second earthquake with respect to the one recorded (0.56 g with the first earthquake. Most of the slip was concentrated on a 12x6 km fault rupture. Maximum seismic intensity (Im of level VII and VIII

  4. Observations of static Coulomb stress triggering of the November 2011 M5.7 Oklahoma earthquake sequence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sumy, Danielle F.; Cochran, Elizabeth S.; Keranen, Katie M.; Wei, Maya; Abers, Geoffrey A.

    2014-01-01

    In November 2011, a M5.0 earthquake occurred less than a day before a M5.7 earthquake near Prague, Oklahoma, which may have promoted failure of the mainshock and thousands of aftershocks along the Wilzetta fault, including a M5.0 aftershock. The M5.0 foreshock occurred in close proximity to active fluid injection wells; fluid injection can cause a buildup of pore fluid pressure, decrease the fault strength, and may induce earthquakes. Keranen et al. [2013] links the M5.0 foreshock with fluid injection, but the relationship between the foreshock and successive events has not been investigated. Here we examine the role of coseismic Coulomb stress transfer on earthquakes that follow the M5.0 foreshock, including the M5.7 mainshock. We resolve the static Coulomb stress change onto the focal mechanism nodal plane that is most consistent with the rupture geometry of the three M ≥ 5.0 earthquakes, as well as specified receiver fault planes that reflect the regional stress orientation. We find that Coulomb stress is increased, e.g., fault failure is promoted, on the nodal planes of ~60% of the events that have focal mechanism solutions, and more specifically, that the M5.0 foreshock promoted failure on the rupture plane of the M5.7 mainshock. We test our results over a range of effective coefficient of friction values. Hence, we argue that the M5.0 foreshock, induced by fluid injection, potentially triggered a cascading failure of earthquakes along the complex Wilzetta fault system.

  5. Spatio-temporal variation of mood and anxiety symptom treatments in Christchurch in the context of the 2010/11 Canterbury earthquake sequence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hogg, Daniel; Kingham, Simon; Wilson, Thomas M; Ardagh, Michael

    2016-11-01

    This article explores the spatio-temporal variation of mood and anxiety treatments in the context of a severe earthquake sequence. The aim was to examine a possible earthquake exposure effect, identify populations at risk and areas with particularly large mood and anxiety treatment rate increases or decreases in the affected Christchurch urban area. A significantly stronger increase of mood and anxiety treatments among residents in Christchurch compared to others in New Zealand have been found, as well as children and elderly identified as especially vulnerable. Spatio-temporal cluster analysis and Bayesian spatio-temporal modelling revealed little changes in mood and anxiety treatment patterns for most parts of the city, whereas areas in the less affected north and northwest showed the strongest increases in risk. This effect may be linked to inner-city mobility activity as a consequence of the earthquakes, but also different levels of community cohesion after the disaster, which merit further research. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  6. Static stress transfer within the Cephalonia Transfer Fault Zone (CTFZ) during the 2014 seismic sequence in Cephalonia and the 2015 earthquake in Lefkada

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sboras, Sotiris; Chatzipetros, Alexandros; Pavlides, Spyros; Karastathis, Vassilis; Papadopoulos, Gerassimos

    2017-04-01

    The 2014 seismic sequence in Cephalonia and the following 2015 earthquake in Lefkada Islands, Greece, showed that the Cephalonia Transfer Fault Zone (CTFZ), which runs along the western coasts of both islands, comprises a wide fault zone of parallel to sub-parallel fault segments. The January-February 2014 sequence of Cephalonia consisted of three moderate to strong events. According to published focal mechanisms, the first strongest shock (January 26, Mw 6.1) was produced by a W-dipping, oblique (right-lateral reverse) fault, the second (January 26, Mw 5.3) by a ENE-dipping, pure reverse fault and the third by a ESE-dipping, almost pure right-lateral strike slip fault. The November 17 2015 (Mw 6.4) Lefkada earthquake was produced by a WNW-dipping, roughly vertical, almost pure right-lateral strike-slip fault. None of the shocks above produced any direct coseismic ground rupture, while published relocated hypocentral locations for the Cephalonia sequence revealed various depths indicating a complex fault pattern. Based on published seismological, geological and satellite data (i.e. InSAR), the respective seismic sources were modelled in order to calculate the static stress changes i) during the Cephalonia and Lefkada sequences, and ii) after the sequences for the surrounding faults from the Greek Database of Seismogenic Sources (GreDaSS). Results showed that the February 3 2014 Cephalonia fault was variously affected by the rupture of the two January 26 faults. Stress change distribution on the fault plane showed that both stress drop and rise occurred. The November 17 2015 Lefkada fault was slightly loaded after the rupture of the whole Cephalonia fault system due to the great distance. The post-sequence stress changes variously affect the surrounding faults: the southern segment of the CTFZ is relieved from stresses, while the central ones show a mixed situation. The large northern segment, offshore from Lefkada Island, is mainly under stress drop. Stress drop is

  7. Geological controls on hillslope-failure mechanisms during the 2010-2011 earthquake sequence in suburban Christchurch, New Zealand

    Science.gov (United States)

    McSaveney, M. J.; Massey, C. I.; Wang, G.

    2012-12-01

    Parts of the city of Christchurch NZ were severely damaged when a series of shallow aftershocks from the Mw 7.1 Darfield earthquake of 4 Sept. 2010 occurred beneath the city. Hillside suburbs are on the flanks of an extinct and deeply dissected Miocene basalt volcano which is widely mantled by Pleistocene loess. Portions of the lower flanks of the volcano have been cliffed by late Holocene marine erosion. Highly prized cliff-top homes overlook the city with a backdrop of the Southern Alps, or a seascape of the south Pacific Ocean. Here we discuss how various hillslope materials responded in different ways to the unusually high ground accelerations in the hillside suburbs. Most ground damage occurred in two major aftershocks: the Mw 6.2 Christchurch earthquake of 22 Feb. 2011, in which 184 people died, and a Mw 6.2 aftershock of 13 June 2011. Ground accelerations in these earthquakes were recorded locally in excess of 2 g. Significant ground damage occurred in 3 other strong aftershocks, although minor rockfalls were observed in many smaller aftershocks of which there were thousands. In the highest ground accelerations, many loose hillside objects were thrown into the air. More than 5000 loose basalt boulders were thrown or toppled from steep slopes to roll through residential properties on the slopes below. In addition, cliff tops and faces crumbled into debris avalanches. In the 13 June earthquake a geotechnical witness on a cliff top described ground cracks opening and closing around him as he scrambled off the collapsing cliff edge during the strong cyclic shaking. Loess landslides were a relative minor but damaging component. Dynamic ring-shear testing showed that the loess fails during amplified strong ground shaking, but shear displacement stops soon after, so that the earthquake-triggered loess landslides move only during strong earthquakes. Detected minor lateral movement in strongly weathered basaltic tuff and basaltic lava breccia is a cause of concern

  8. Earthquake risk assessment of building structures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ellingwood, Bruce R.

    2001-01-01

    During the past two decades, probabilistic risk analysis tools have been applied to assess the performance of new and existing building structural systems. Structural design and evaluation of buildings and other facilities with regard to their ability to withstand the effects of earthquakes requires special considerations that are not normally a part of such evaluations for other occupancy, service and environmental loads. This paper reviews some of these special considerations, specifically as they pertain to probability-based codified design and reliability-based condition assessment of existing buildings. Difficulties experienced in implementing probability-based limit states design criteria for earthquake are summarized. Comparisons of predicted and observed building damage highlight the limitations of using current deterministic approaches for post-earthquake building condition assessment. The importance of inherent randomness and modeling uncertainty in forecasting building performance is examined through a building fragility assessment of a steel frame with welded connections that was damaged during the Northridge Earthquake of 1994. The prospects for future improvements in earthquake-resistant design procedures based on a more rational probability-based treatment of uncertainty are examined

  9. GPS constraints on the Mw = 7.5 Ometepec earthquake sequence, southern Mexico: coseismic and post-seismic deformation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Graham, Shannon E.; DeMets, Charles; Cabral-Cano, Enrique; Kostoglodov, Vladimir; Walpersdorf, Andrea; Cotte, Nathalie; Brudzinski, Michael; McCaffrey, Robert; Salazar-Tlaczani, Luis

    2014-10-01

    We use continuous GPS measurements from 31 stations in southern Mexico to model coseismic slip and post-seismic deformation from the 2012 March 20 Mw = 7.5 Ometepec earthquake, the first large thrust earthquake to occur below central Mexico during the modern GPS era. Coseismic offsets ranging from ˜280 mm near the epicentre to 5 mm or less at sites far from the epicentre are fit best by a rupture focused between ˜15 and 35 km depth, consistent with an independent seismological estimate. The corresponding geodetic moment of 1.4 × 1020 N·m is within 10 per cent of two independent seismic estimates. Transient post-seismic motion recorded by GPS sites as far as 300 km from the rupture has a different horizontal deformation gradient and opposite sense of vertical motion than do the coseismic offsets. A forward model of viscoelastic relaxation as a result of our new coseismic slip solution incorrectly predicts uplift in areas where post-seismic subsidence was recorded and indicates that viscoelastic deformation was no more than a few per cent of the measured post-seismic deformation. The deformation within 6 months of the earthquake was thus strongly dominated by fault afterslip. The post-seismic GPS time-series are well fit as logarithmically decaying fault afterslip on an area of the subduction interface up to 10 times larger than the earthquake rupture zone, extending as far as 220 km inland. Afterslip had a cumulative geodetic moment of 2.0 × 1020 N·m, ˜40 per cent larger than the Ometepec earthquake. Tests for the shallow and deep limits for the afterslip require that it included much of the earthquake rupture zone as well as regions of the subduction interface where slow slip events and non-volcanic tremor have been recorded and areas even farther downdip on the flat interface. Widespread afterslip below much of central Mexico suggests that most of the nearly flat subduction interface in this region is conditionally stable and thus contributes measurable

  10. GPS Constraints on the Mw=7.5 Ometepec Earthquake Sequence, Southern Mexico: Coseismic and Postseismic Deformation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Graham, S. E.; DeMets, C.; Cabral, E.; Kostoglodov, V.; Walpersdorf, A.; Cotte, N.; Brudzinski, M. R.; McCaffrey, R.; Salazar-Tlaczani, L.

    2014-12-01

    We use continuous GPS measurements from 31 stations in southern Mexico to model coseismic slip and postseismic deformation from the 20 March 2012 Mw=7.5 Ometepec earthquake, the first large thrust earthquake to occur below central Mexico during the modern GPS era. Coseismic offsets ranging from ~280 mm near the epicenter to 5 mm or less at sites far from the epicenter are fit best by a rupture focused between ~15 km and 35 km depth, consistent with an independent seismological estimate. Transient postseismic motion recorded by GPS sites as far as 300 km from the rupture has a different horizontal deformation gradient and opposite sense of vertical motion than do the coseismic offsets. A forward model of viscoelastic relaxation as a result of our new coseismic slip solution incorrectly predicts uplift in areas where postseismic subsidence was recorded and indicates that viscoelastic deformation was no more than a few percent of the measured postseismic deformation. The deformation within six months of the earthquake was thus strongly dominated by fault afterslip. The postseismic GPS time series are well fit as logarithmically decaying fault afterslip on an area of the subduction interface up to 10 times larger than the earthquake rupture zone, extending as far as 220 km inland. Afterslip had a cumulative geodetic moment of 2.0×1020 N·m, ~40% larger than the Ometepec earthquake. Tests for the shallow and deep limits for the afterslip require that it included much of the earthquake rupture zone as well as regions of the subduction interface where slow slip events and non-volcanic tremor have been recorded and areas even farther downdip on the flat interface. We examine whether aftershocks accommodated a significant fraction of the shallow postseismic slip, but find that the energy released by aftershocks accounted for no more than 10% of the postseismic moment release at any depth. Widespread afterslip below much of central Mexico suggests that most of the nearly

  11. Operational earthquake forecasting can enhance earthquake preparedness

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jordan, T.H.; Marzocchi, W.; Michael, A.J.; Gerstenberger, M.C.

    2014-01-01

    We cannot yet predict large earthquakes in the short term with much reliability and skill, but the strong clustering exhibited in seismic sequences tells us that earthquake probabilities are not constant in time; they generally rise and fall over periods of days to years in correlation with nearby seismic activity. Operational earthquake forecasting (OEF) is the dissemination of authoritative information about these time‐dependent probabilities to help communities prepare for potentially destructive earthquakes. The goal of OEF is to inform the decisions that people and organizations must continually make to mitigate seismic risk and prepare for potentially destructive earthquakes on time scales from days to decades. To fulfill this role, OEF must provide a complete description of the seismic hazard—ground‐motion exceedance probabilities as well as short‐term rupture probabilities—in concert with the long‐term forecasts of probabilistic seismic‐hazard analysis (PSHA).

  12. Source Process of the Mw 5.0 Au Sable Forks, New York, Earthquake Sequence from Local Aftershock Monitoring Network Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, W.; Seeber, L.; Armbruster, J. G.

    2002-12-01

    On April 20, 2002, a Mw 5 earthquake occurred near the town of Au Sable Forks, northeastern Adirondacks, New York. The quake caused moderate damage (MMI VII) around the epicentral area and it is well recorded by over 50 broadband stations in the distance ranges of 70 to 2000 km in the Eastern North America. Regional broadband waveform data are used to determine source mechanism and focal depth using moment tensor inversion technique. Source mechanism indicates predominantly thrust faulting along 45° dipping fault plane striking due South. The mainshock is followed by at least three strong aftershocks with local magnitude (ML) greater than 3 and about 70 aftershocks are detected and located in the first three months by a 12-station portable seismographic network. The aftershock distribution clearly delineate the mainshock rupture to the westerly dipping fault plane at a depth of 11 to 12 km. Preliminary analysis of the aftershock waveform data indicates that orientation of the P-axis rotated 90° from that of the mainshock, suggesting a complex source process of the earthquake sequence. We achieved an important milestone in monitoring earthquakes and evaluating their hazards through rapid cross-border (Canada-US) and cross-regional (Central US-Northeastern US) collaborative efforts. Hence, staff at Instrument Software Technology, Inc. near the epicentral area joined Lamont-Doherty staff and deployed the first portable station in the epicentral area; CERI dispatched two of their technical staff to the epicentral area with four accelerometers and a broadband seismograph; the IRIS/PASSCAL facility shipped three digital seismographs and ancillary equipment within one day of the request; the POLARIS Consortium, Canada sent a field crew of three with a near real-time, satellite telemetry based earthquake monitoring system. The Polaris station, KSVO, powered by a solar panel and batteries, was already transmitting data to the central Hub in London, Ontario, Canada within

  13. System Identification of Burbank Six-Story Building Using Earthquake Data

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    D'Amore, Enzo; Amaddeo, Carmen; Astaneh-Asl, Abolhassan

    2008-01-01

    This paper examines the problem of identifying the dynamic characteristics of an instrumented building using an input-output system identification method. The building studied was a six-story steel moment-resisting frame (SMRF) instrumented by the California Strong Motion Instrumentation Program (CSMIP). The building was shaken by several earthquakes and strong motion data of the building response was recorded during these earthquakes and were made available through SMIP. In particular the Whittier Narrows (October, 1987), the Sierra Madre (June, 1991) and the Northridge (January, 1994) earthquakes were considered in the studies reported here. The seismic performance of steel moment-framed buildings has been of particular interest after the 1994 Northridge earthquake because brittle fractures were discovered at the beam-column connection. The Eigensystem Realization Algorithm with Data Correlation (ERA/DC) and Observer/Kalman filter Identification (OKID) were used in these studies for system identification purposes. The identified modal properties of the structure were compared and verified with the spectral analysis of the response of the structure excited by three different earthquakes

  14. A Fluid-driven Earthquake Cycle, Omori's Law, and Fluid-driven Aftershocks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miller, S. A.

    2015-12-01

    strong spatial correlations of the simulated evolved permeability and fluid pressure field with aftershock hypocenters from this 1992 Landers and 1994 Northridge aftershock sequences, and reproduce the observed aftershock decay rates. Controls on the decay rates (p-value) will also be discussed.

  15. Rifting mechanisms constrained by InSAR, seismicity, GPS, and surface rupture from the Karonga earthquake sequence in northern Lake Malawi (Nyasa)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zheng, W.; Pritchard, M. E.; Henderson, S. T.; Gaherty, J. B.; Shillington, D. J.; Oliva, S. J.; Ebinger, C.; Nooner, S. L.; Elliott, J.; Saria, E.; Ntambila, D.; Chindandali, P. R. N.

    2017-12-01

    The Malawi rift is part of the archetypal East African rift where early-stage crustal extension is dominated by faulting. In the Karonga region of northern Malawi, a sequence of earthquakes in late 2009, with 15 teleseismically detected (Mw 4.5-6.0) over 13 days, provides a uniqueopportunity to evaluate faulting processes controlling present-day extension in an early-stage rift. We describe observations of this sequence including hundreds of aftershocks located by a temporary seismic array installed in 2010, ground deformation from satellite interferograms, and surface rupture from field surveys published by others. We use all of these data to model fault geometry and slip. The aftershocks from January-May 2010 suggest the involvement of multiple faults, and we test the extent that this can be resolved by the InSAR data. The InSAR and surface rupture both suggest that the major slip occurred at shallow depth (Study of Extension and maGmatism in Malawi aNd Tanzania) project, which includes the Karonga region and spans 2013-2015. We find 3 cm of potential ground movement at the location of the earthquake as determined by the SEGMeNT seismic array from Sentinel-1. Geodetic fault slip is consistent with the focal mechanism and depth determined by the local array. The location is at the northern end of the 2009-2010 aftershock zone, and aftershocks suggest some linkage with faults that slipped in 2009. InSAR observations do not provide any evidence for large aseismic slip or fluid movements during or after the 2014 sequence, which had <200 aftershocks above the network threshold. For example, we do not observe any deformation at Rungwe volcano above the 2 cm/yr detection threshold with InSAR time series from ALOS (2007-2010) or Sentinel-1 (10/2014 - 04/2017). The time series from SEGMeNT and other continuous GPS stations do not show transients related to the earthquakes, but are not optimally located in space or time.

  16. Vibration Control of Nuclear Power Plant Piping System Using Stockbridge Damper under Earthquakes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Seongkyu Chang

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Generally the piping system of a nuclear power plant (NPP has to be designed for normal loads such as dead weight, internal pressure, temperature, and accidental loads such as earthquake. In the proposed paper, effect of Stockbridge damper to mitigate the response of piping system of NPP subjected to earthquake is studied. Finite element analysis of piping system with and without Stockbridge damper using commercial software SAP2000 is performed. Vertical and horizontal components of earthquakes such as El Centro, California, and Northridge are used in the piping analysis. A sine sweep wave is also used to investigate the control effects on the piping system under wide frequency range. It is found that the proposed Stockbridge damper can reduce the seismic response of piping system subjected to earthquake loading.

  17. The 2012 Mw 8.6 Wharton Basin sequence: A cascade of great earthquakes generated by near-orthogonal, young, oceanic mantle faults

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hill, Emma M.; Yue, Han; Barbot, Sylvain; Lay, Thorne; Tapponnier, Paul; Hermawan, Iwan; Hubbard, Judith; Banerjee, Paramesh; Feng, Lujia; Natawidjaja, Danny; Sieh, Kerry

    2015-05-01

    We improve constraints on the slip distribution and geometry of faults involved in the complex, multisegment, Mw 8.6 April 2012 Wharton Basin earthquake sequence by joint inversion of high-rate GPS data from the Sumatran GPS Array (SuGAr), teleseismic observations, source time functions from broadband surface waves, and far-field static GPS displacements. This sequence occurred under the Indian Ocean, ˜400 km offshore Sumatra. The events are extraordinary for their unprecedented rupture of multiple cross faults, deep slip, large strike-slip magnitude, and potential role in the formation of a discrete plate boundary between the Indian and Australian plates. The SuGAr recorded static displacements of up to ˜22 cm, along with time-varying arrivals from the complex faulting, which indicate that the majority of moment release was on young, WNW trending, right-lateral faults, counter to initial expectations that an old, lithospheric, NNE trending fracture zone played the primary role. The new faults are optimally oriented to accommodate the present-day stress field. Not only was the greatest moment released on the younger faults, but it was these that sustained very deep slip and high stress drop (>20 MPa). The rupture may have extended to depths of up to 60 km, suggesting that the oceanic lithosphere in the northern Wharton Basin may be cold and strong enough to sustain brittle failure at such depths. Alternatively, the rupture may have occurred with an alternative weakening mechanism, such as thermal runaway.

  18. Variations in the geomagnetic and gravitational background associated with two strong earthquakes of the May 2012 sequence in the Po Valley Plain (Italy).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Straser, Valentino

    2013-04-01

    Reawakening of seismic activity in the Emilian Po Valley Plain (Italy) resulted in 2,492 earthquakes over five and a half months: 2,270 with M= 7. The mainshock was recorded during the night of 20 May 2012, at 04:03:52 Italian time (02:03:52 UTC) with epicentre in Finale Emilia, at a depth of 6.3km, by the Italian National Institute of Geophysics and Vulcanology (INGV). A long sequence of telluric shocks occurred in the same seismic district in the areas between the provinces of Modena, Ferrara, Mantua, Reggio Emilia, Bologna and Rovigo. In addition to the general devastation plus damage to civil and industrial buildings and the historical heritage, the earthquakes resulted in a total of 27 victims. Concomitant with the two strongest quakes, recorded on 20 and 29 May 2012, respectively, as in the case of others, variations were noted in the geomagnetic background by the LTPA monitoring station in Rome (Italy). The geomagnetic background variations were associated with the appearance of radio-anomalies in a frequency range from 0.1 to 3.0Hz, as well as gravimetric variations found around 60km from the epicentre. The peak accelerations, detected in correspondence with the strongest shocks on 20 and 29 May 2012, were respectively 0.31g and 0.29g. The appearance of the radio-anomalies coincided, from a temporal point of view, with average gravimetric variations of approximately 30µGal around the epicentre areas, concurrent with the mainshock. In this study, both the appearance of radio-anomalies and the gravitational variations recorded before strong earthquakes were related to the dynamics of the fault and a progressive reduction in granulometry in the core of the fracture, until the point of dislocation was reached. The intense friction in the fault and the damping factors produced before the shock are hypothesized as being proportional to the number of radio-anomalies measured. The radio anomaly is an unknown radio emission that has no characteristics (duration

  19. Earthquake prediction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ward, P.L.

    1978-01-01

    The state of the art of earthquake prediction is summarized, the possible responses to such prediction are examined, and some needs in the present prediction program and in research related to use of this new technology are reviewed. Three basic aspects of earthquake prediction are discussed: location of the areas where large earthquakes are most likely to occur, observation within these areas of measurable changes (earthquake precursors) and determination of the area and time over which the earthquake will occur, and development of models of the earthquake source in order to interpret the precursors reliably. 6 figures

  20. A Unique Sequence of Financial Accounting Courses Featuring Team Teaching, Linked Courses, Challenging Assignments, and Instruments for Evaluation and Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lundblad, Heidemarie; Wilson, Barbara A.

    2008-01-01

    The Department of Accounting at California State University Northridge (CSUN) has developed a unique sequence of courses designed to ensure that accounting students are trained not only in technical accounting, but also acquire critical thinking, research and communication skills. The courses have proven effective and have embedded assessment…

  1. Do earthquakes exhibit self-organized criticality?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yang Xiaosong; Ma Jin; Du Shuming

    2004-01-01

    If earthquakes are phenomena of self-organized criticality (SOC), statistical characteristics of the earthquake time series should be invariant after the sequence of events in an earthquake catalog are randomly rearranged. In this Letter we argue that earthquakes are unlikely phenomena of SOC because our analysis of the Southern California Earthquake Catalog shows that the first-return-time probability P M (T) is apparently changed after the time series is rearranged. This suggests that the SOC theory should not be used to oppose the efforts of earthquake prediction

  2. Spatiotermporal correlations of earthquakes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Farkas, J.; Kun, F.

    2007-01-01

    Complete text of publication follows. An earthquake is the result of a sudden release of energy in the Earth's crust that creates seismic waves. At the present technological level, earthquakes of magnitude larger than three can be recorded all over the world. In spite of the apparent randomness of earthquake occurrence, long term measurements have revealed interesting scaling laws of earthquake characteristics: the rate of aftershocks following major earthquakes has a power law decay (Omori law); the magnitude distribution of earthquakes exhibits a power law behavior (Gutenberg-Richter law), furthermore, it has recently been pointed out that epicenters form fractal networks in fault zones (Kagan law). The theoretical explanation of earthquakes is based on plate tectonics: the earth's crust has been broken into plates which slowly move under the action of the flowing magma. Neighboring plates touch each other along ridges (fault zones) where a large amount of energy is stored in deformation. Earthquakes occur when the stored energy exceeds a material dependent threshold value and gets released in a sudden jump of the plate. The Burridge-Knopoff (BK) model of earthquakes represents earth's crust as a coupled system of driven oscillators where nonlinearity occurs through a stick-slip frictional instability. Laboratory experiments have revealed that under a high pressure the friction of rock interfaces exhibits a weakening with increasing velocity. In the present project we extend recent theoretical studies of the BK model by taking into account a realistic velocity weakening friction force between tectonic plates. Varying the strength of weakening a broad spectrum of interesting phenomena is obtained: the model reproduces the Omori and Gutenberg-Richter laws of earthquakes, furthermore, it provides information on the correlation of earthquake sequences. We showed by computer simulations that the spatial and temporal correlations of consecutive earthquakes are very

  3. Nowcasting Earthquakes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rundle, J. B.; Donnellan, A.; Grant Ludwig, L.; Turcotte, D. L.; Luginbuhl, M.; Gail, G.

    2016-12-01

    Nowcasting is a term originating from economics and finance. It refers to the process of determining the uncertain state of the economy or markets at the current time by indirect means. We apply this idea to seismically active regions, where the goal is to determine the current state of the fault system, and its current level of progress through the earthquake cycle. In our implementation of this idea, we use the global catalog of earthquakes, using "small" earthquakes to determine the level of hazard from "large" earthquakes in the region. Our method does not involve any model other than the idea of an earthquake cycle. Rather, we define a specific region and a specific large earthquake magnitude of interest, ensuring that we have enough data to span at least 20 or more large earthquake cycles in the region. We then compute the earthquake potential score (EPS) which is defined as the cumulative probability distribution P(nearthquakes in the region. From the count of small earthquakes since the last large earthquake, we determine the value of EPS = P(nearthquake cycle in the defined region at the current time.

  4. Earthquake Facts

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... estimated 830,000 people. In 1976 another deadly earthquake struck in Tangshan, China, where more than 250,000 people were killed. Florida and North Dakota have the smallest number of earthquakes in the United States. The deepest earthquakes typically ...

  5. Earthquake Forecasting System in Italy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Falcone, G.; Marzocchi, W.; Murru, M.; Taroni, M.; Faenza, L.

    2017-12-01

    In Italy, after the 2009 L'Aquila earthquake, a procedure was developed for gathering and disseminating authoritative information about the time dependence of seismic hazard to help communities prepare for a potentially destructive earthquake. The most striking time dependency of the earthquake occurrence process is the time clustering, which is particularly pronounced in time windows of days and weeks. The Operational Earthquake Forecasting (OEF) system that is developed at the Seismic Hazard Center (Centro di Pericolosità Sismica, CPS) of the Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV) is the authoritative source of seismic hazard information for Italian Civil Protection. The philosophy of the system rests on a few basic concepts: transparency, reproducibility, and testability. In particular, the transparent, reproducible, and testable earthquake forecasting system developed at CPS is based on ensemble modeling and on a rigorous testing phase. Such phase is carried out according to the guidance proposed by the Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP, international infrastructure aimed at evaluating quantitatively earthquake prediction and forecast models through purely prospective and reproducible experiments). In the OEF system, the two most popular short-term models were used: the Epidemic-Type Aftershock Sequences (ETAS) and the Short-Term Earthquake Probabilities (STEP). Here, we report the results from OEF's 24hour earthquake forecasting during the main phases of the 2016-2017 sequence occurred in Central Apennines (Italy).

  6. The HayWired earthquake scenario—Earthquake hazards

    Science.gov (United States)

    Detweiler, Shane T.; Wein, Anne M.

    2017-04-24

    The HayWired scenario is a hypothetical earthquake sequence that is being used to better understand hazards for the San Francisco Bay region during and after an earthquake of magnitude 7 on the Hayward Fault. The 2014 Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities calculated that there is a 33-percent likelihood of a large (magnitude 6.7 or greater) earthquake occurring on the Hayward Fault within three decades. A large Hayward Fault earthquake will produce strong ground shaking, permanent displacement of the Earth’s surface, landslides, liquefaction (soils becoming liquid-like during shaking), and subsequent fault slip, known as afterslip, and earthquakes, known as aftershocks. The most recent large earthquake on the Hayward Fault occurred on October 21, 1868, and it ruptured the southern part of the fault. The 1868 magnitude-6.8 earthquake occurred when the San Francisco Bay region had far fewer people, buildings, and infrastructure (roads, communication lines, and utilities) than it does today, yet the strong ground shaking from the earthquake still caused significant building damage and loss of life. The next large Hayward Fault earthquake is anticipated to affect thousands of structures and disrupt the lives of millions of people. Earthquake risk in the San Francisco Bay region has been greatly reduced as a result of previous concerted efforts; for example, tens of billions of dollars of investment in strengthening infrastructure was motivated in large part by the 1989 magnitude 6.9 Loma Prieta earthquake. To build on efforts to reduce earthquake risk in the San Francisco Bay region, the HayWired earthquake scenario comprehensively examines the earthquake hazards to help provide the crucial scientific information that the San Francisco Bay region can use to prepare for the next large earthquake, The HayWired Earthquake Scenario—Earthquake Hazards volume describes the strong ground shaking modeled in the scenario and the hazardous movements of

  7. The HayWired Earthquake Scenario—Earthquake Hazards

    Science.gov (United States)

    Detweiler, Shane T.; Wein, Anne M.

    2017-04-24

    The HayWired scenario is a hypothetical earthquake sequence that is being used to better understand hazards for the San Francisco Bay region during and after an earthquake of magnitude 7 on the Hayward Fault. The 2014 Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities calculated that there is a 33-percent likelihood of a large (magnitude 6.7 or greater) earthquake occurring on the Hayward Fault within three decades. A large Hayward Fault earthquake will produce strong ground shaking, permanent displacement of the Earth’s surface, landslides, liquefaction (soils becoming liquid-like during shaking), and subsequent fault slip, known as afterslip, and earthquakes, known as aftershocks. The most recent large earthquake on the Hayward Fault occurred on October 21, 1868, and it ruptured the southern part of the fault. The 1868 magnitude-6.8 earthquake occurred when the San Francisco Bay region had far fewer people, buildings, and infrastructure (roads, communication lines, and utilities) than it does today, yet the strong ground shaking from the earthquake still caused significant building damage and loss of life. The next large Hayward Fault earthquake is anticipated to affect thousands of structures and disrupt the lives of millions of people. Earthquake risk in the San Francisco Bay region has been greatly reduced as a result of previous concerted efforts; for example, tens of billions of dollars of investment in strengthening infrastructure was motivated in large part by the 1989 magnitude 6.9 Loma Prieta earthquake. To build on efforts to reduce earthquake risk in the San Francisco Bay region, the HayWired earthquake scenario comprehensively examines the earthquake hazards to help provide the crucial scientific information that the San Francisco Bay region can use to prepare for the next large earthquake, The HayWired Earthquake Scenario—Earthquake Hazards volume describes the strong ground shaking modeled in the scenario and the hazardous movements of

  8. Seismicity at the northeast edge of the Mexican Volcanic Belt (MVB) and activation of an undocumented fault: the Peñamiller earthquake sequence of 2010-2011, Querétaro, Mexico

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clemente-Chavez, A.; Figueroa-Soto, A.; Zúñiga, F. R.; Arroyo, M.; Montiel, M.; Chavez, O.

    2013-10-01

    The town of Peñamiller in the state of Querétaro, Mexico, is located at the northeast border of the seismogenic zone known as the Mexican Volcanic Belt (MVB), which transects the central part of Mexico with an east-west orientation. In the vicinity of this town, a sequence of small earthquakes occurred during the end of 2010 and beginning of 2011. Seismicity in the continental regimen of central Mexico is not too frequent; however, it is known that there are precedents of large earthquakes (Mw magnitude greater than 6.0) occurring in this zone. Three large earthquakes have occurred in the past 100 yr: the 19 November 1912 (MS = 7.0), the 3 January 1920 (MS = 6.4), and the 29 June 1935 (MS = 6.9) earthquakes. Prior to the instrumental period, the earthquake of 11 February 1875, which took place near the city of Guadalajara, caused widespread damage. The purpose of this article is to contribute to the available seismic information of this region. This will help advance our understanding of the tectonic situation of the central Mexico MVB region. Twenty-four shallow earthquakes of the Peñamiller seismic sequence of 2011 were recorded by a temporary accelerograph network installed by the Universidad Autónoma de Querétaro (UAQ). The data were analyzed in order to determine the source locations and to estimate the source parameters. The study was carried out through an inversion process and by spectral analysis. The results show that the largest earthquake occurred on 8 February 2011 at 19:53:48.6 UTC, had a moment magnitude Mw = 3.5, and was located at latitude 21.039° and longitude -99.752°, at a depth of 5.6 km. This location is less than 7 km away in a south-east direction from downtown Peñamiller. The focal mechanisms are mostly normal faults with small lateral components. These focal mechanisms are consistent with the extensional regimen of the southern extension of the Basin and Range (BR) province. The source area of the largest event was estimated to

  9. Seismicity at the northeast edge of the Mexican Volcanic Belt (MVB and activation of an undocumented fault: the Peñamiller earthquake sequence of 2010–2011, Querétaro, Mexico

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Clemente-Chavez

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available The town of Peñamiller in the state of Querétaro, Mexico, is located at the northeast border of the seismogenic zone known as the Mexican Volcanic Belt (MVB, which transects the central part of Mexico with an east–west orientation. In the vicinity of this town, a sequence of small earthquakes occurred during the end of 2010 and beginning of 2011. Seismicity in the continental regimen of central Mexico is not too frequent; however, it is known that there are precedents of large earthquakes (Mw magnitude greater than 6.0 occurring in this zone. Three large earthquakes have occurred in the past 100 yr: the 19 November 1912 (MS = 7.0, the 3 January 1920 (MS = 6.4, and the 29 June 1935 (MS = 6.9 earthquakes. Prior to the instrumental period, the earthquake of 11 February 1875, which took place near the city of Guadalajara, caused widespread damage. The purpose of this article is to contribute to the available seismic information of this region. This will help advance our understanding of the tectonic situation of the central Mexico MVB region. Twenty-four shallow earthquakes of the Peñamiller seismic sequence of 2011 were recorded by a temporary accelerograph network installed by the Universidad Autónoma de Querétaro (UAQ. The data were analyzed in order to determine the source locations and to estimate the source parameters. The study was carried out through an inversion process and by spectral analysis. The results show that the largest earthquake occurred on 8 February 2011 at 19:53:48.6 UTC, had a moment magnitude Mw = 3.5, and was located at latitude 21.039° and longitude −99.752°, at a depth of 5.6 km. This location is less than 7 km away in a south-east direction from downtown Peñamiller. The focal mechanisms are mostly normal faults with small lateral components. These focal mechanisms are consistent with the extensional regimen of the southern extension of the Basin and Range (BR province. The source area of the largest event was

  10. Undead earthquakes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Musson, R. M. W.

    This short communication deals with the problem of fake earthquakes that keep returning into circulation. The particular events discussed are some very early earthquakes supposed to have occurred in the U.K., which all originate from a single enigmatic 18th century source.

  11. Analog earthquakes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hofmann, R.B.

    1995-01-01

    Analogs are used to understand complex or poorly understood phenomena for which little data may be available at the actual repository site. Earthquakes are complex phenomena, and they can have a large number of effects on the natural system, as well as on engineered structures. Instrumental data close to the source of large earthquakes are rarely obtained. The rare events for which measurements are available may be used, with modfications, as analogs for potential large earthquakes at sites where no earthquake data are available. In the following, several examples of nuclear reactor and liquified natural gas facility siting are discussed. A potential use of analog earthquakes is proposed for a high-level nuclear waste (HLW) repository

  12. Southern California Earthquake Center (SCEC) Communication, Education and Outreach Program

    Science.gov (United States)

    Benthien, M. L.

    2003-12-01

    The SCEC Communication, Education, and Outreach Program (CEO) offers student research experiences, web-based education tools, classroom curricula, museum displays, public information brochures, online newsletters, and technical workshops and publications. This year, much progress has been made on the development of the Electronic Encyclopedia of Earthquakes (E3), a collaborative project with CUREE and IRIS. The E3 development system is now fully operational, and 165 entries are in the pipeline. When complete, information and resources for over 500 Earth science and engineering topics will be included, with connections to curricular materials useful for teaching Earth Science, engineering, physics and mathematics. To coordinate activities for the 10-year anniversary of the Northridge Earthquake in 2004 (and beyond), the "Earthquake Country Alliance" is being organized by SCEC CEO to present common messages, to share or promote existing resources, and to develop new activities and products jointly (such as a new version of Putting Down Roots in Earthquake Country). The group includes earthquake science and engineering researchers and practicing professionals, preparedness experts, response and recovery officials, news media representatives, and education specialists. A web portal, http://www.earthquakecountry.info, is being developed established with links to web pages and descriptions of other resources and services that the Alliance members provide. Another ongoing strength of SCEC is the Summer Intern program, which now has a year-round counterpart with students working on IT projects at USC. Since Fall 2002, over 32 students have participated in the program, including 7 students working with scientists throughout SCEC, 17 students involved in the USC "Earthquake Information Technology" intern program, and 7 students involved in CEO projects. These and other activities of the SCEC CEO program will be presented, along with lessons learned during program design and

  13. Earthquake sequence simulations of a fault in a viscoelastic material with a spectral boundary integral equation method: The effect of interseismic stress relaxation on a behavior of a rate-weakening patch

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miyake, Y.; Noda, H.

    2017-12-01

    Earthquake sequences involve many processes in a wide range of time scales, from quasistatic loading to dynamic rupture. At a depth of brittle-plastic transitional and deeper, rock behaves as a viscous fluid in a long timescale, but as an elastic material in a short timescale. Viscoelastic stress relaxation may be important in the interseismic periods at the depth, near the deeper limit of the seismogenic layer or the region of slow slip events (SSEs) [Namiki et al., 2014 and references therein]. In the present study, we implemented the viscoelastic effect (Maxwell material) in fully-dynamic earthquake sequence simulations using a spectral boundary integral equation method (SBIEM) [e.g., Lapusta et al., 2000]. SBIEM is efficient in calculation of convolutional terms for dynamic stress transfer, and the problem size is limited by the amount of memory available. Linear viscoelasticity could be implemented by convolution of slip rate history and Green's function, but this method requires additional memory and thus not suitable for the implementation to the present code. Instead, we integrated the evolution of "effective slip" distribution, which gives static stress distribution when convolved with static elastic Green's function. This method works only for simple viscoelastic property distributions, but such models are suitable for numerical experiments aiming basic understanding of the system behavior because of the virtue of SBIEM, the ability of fine on-fault spatial resolution and efficient computation utilizing the fast Fourier transformation. In the present study, we examined the effect of viscoelasticity on earthquake sequences of a fault with a rate-weakening patch. A series of simulations with various relaxation time tc revealed that as decreasing tc, recurrence intervals of earthquakes increases and seismicity ultimately disappears. As long as studied, this transition to aseismic behavior is NOT associated with SSEs. In a case where the rate-weakening patch

  14. High-rate GPS results for the April 2012 Sumatra earthquake sequence, an unusual, complex, and very large intraplate strike-slip event

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hill, E. M.; Hermawan, I.; Lay, T.; Yue, H.; Banerjee, P.; Qiu, Q.; Macpherson, K. A.; Feng, L.; Tsang, L. L.; Lubis, A.; Tapponnier, P.; Sieh, K. E.

    2012-12-01

    The 11 April 2012 Mw 8.6 Sumatra earthquake was one of the largest strike-slip earthquakes ever recorded, and also one of the largest intraplate earthquakes. It was followed 2 hours later by another great earthquake, of Mw 8.2, in a similar location. The events occurred ~400 km from northern Sumatra, on the oceanic side of the Sunda megathrust. The event was recorded by high-rate GPS stations from our 50-station Sumatra GPS Array (SuGAr). We will present the coseismic displacements and constraints on slip obtained from this network. The location of the events is very interesting. Scientists have long been puzzled by the nature and location of the boundary between the Indian and Australian plates in the depths of the Indian Ocean. Because of the resistance provided by the collision of India with Tibet far to the north, the Indian plate is moving relatively northwards at about 1 cm/yr slower than the Australian plate; this difference in velocity causes strain between the Indian and Australian plates. These earthquakes provide important new evidence that this strain is reactivating a system of faults on the seafloor that were inherited from an older geological epoch, and bring up questions about why this deformation appears to be diffuse, rather than behaving as a proper plate boundary. The events also highlight a back-and-forth interaction between the intraplate faults and the Sunda megathrust; the 2004 megathrust event brought these earthquakes ahead in time, but these earthquakes will in turn have stressed the megathrust. Published seismological results have indicated great complexity in the rupture patterns for these events, with a cascading failure of multiple conjugate faults. Surprisingly, the majority of slip seems to have occurred on the WNW-trending, right-lateral faults, rather than the NNE-trending left-lateral faults that are prominent features of the seafloor. The seismological results also show that the ruptures are likely to have extended from the

  15. Using Earthquake Data to map Faults in 3-D: Applications and Results

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carena, S.; Suppe, J.; Kao, H.

    2007-12-01

    Knowledge of the 3-D shape of active faults is of fundamental importance in many fields, from earthquake hazards, to oil exploration, to regional tectonics and seismotectonics. We have developed techniques in 3-D fault modeling whose applications range from models of single fault surfaces or small groups of faults, which can be used in earthquake hazards evaluation, to regional tectonic models. An example of how these techniques can be applied to the imaging of individual structures is that of the Northridge thrust in southern California. We were able to determine the 3-D geometry of the fault that generated the M 6.8, 1994 Northridge earthquake from the aftershocks of this event. It was also possible to determine the geometry of several nearby faults, some of which were previously unknown and are capable of producing damaging earthquakes. Complex fault networks can be modeled too, and the interactions between faults studied in detail. An example of this is the San Andreas fault system near San Gorgonio Pass in southern California. At San Gorgonio Pass we imaged the fault network using over 43,000 relocated small earthquakes. We then applied our knowledge of the network geometry to examine possible earthquake triggering scenarios in order to determine the likelihood of a major rupture of the San Andreas fault from the Salton Sea Los Angeles. A study of the 3-D structure of the crust in central Taiwan, where the M 7.6, 1999 Chi-Chi earthquake produced a large number of aftershocks, is an example of modeling applied to regional tectonics, and mountain building in particular. We imaged for the first time the large detachment beneath Taiwan. This detachment had been postulated by several authors, but never seen directly before, thus its exact geometry was unknown. Most faults capable of producing major earthquakes are connected to this detachment at depth. The results obtained from 3- D imaging allowed us a new test of critical-taper wedge mechanics, and suggest that

  16. Connecting slow earthquakes to huge earthquakes

    OpenAIRE

    Obara, Kazushige; Kato, Aitaro

    2016-01-01

    Slow earthquakes are characterized by a wide spectrum of fault slip behaviors and seismic radiation patterns that differ from those of traditional earthquakes. However, slow earthquakes and huge megathrust earthquakes can have common slip mechanisms and are located in neighboring regions of the seismogenic zone. The frequent occurrence of slow earthquakes may help to reveal the physics underlying megathrust events as useful analogs. Slow earthquakes may function as stress meters because of th...

  17. The 2016 Mw 7.8 Pedernales, Ecuador earthquake: Minimum 1D Velocity Model and Regional Moment Tensors Based on the Aftershock Sequence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leon-Rios, S.; Aguiar, A. L.; Bie, L.; Edwards, B.; Fuenzalida Velasco, A. J.; Holt, J.; Garth, T.; González, P. J.; Rietbrock, A.; Agurto-Detzel, H.; Charvis, P.; Font, Y.; Nocquet, J. M.; Regnier, M. M.; Renouard, A.; Mercerat, D.; Pernoud, M.; Beck, S. L.; Meltzer, A.; Soto-Cordero, L.; Alvarado, A. P.; Perrault, M.; Ruiz, M. C.; Santo, J.

    2017-12-01

    On 16th April 2016, a Mw 7.8 mega-thrust earthquake occurred in northern Ecuador, close to the city of Pedernales. The event that ruptured an area of 120 x 60 km led to a deployment of a large array of seismic instruments as part of a collaborative project between the Geophysical Institute of Ecuador (IGEPN), Lehigh University (USA), University of Arizona (USA), Geoazur (France) and the University of Liverpool (UK). This dense seismic network, with more than 80 stations, includes broadband, short period, strong motion and OBS instruments were recording up to one year after the mainshock. Using the recorded data set, we manually analysed and located 450 events. Selection was based on the largest aftershocks (Ml > 3.5 from the IGEPN catalogue) and additional preliminary automatic locations to increase the observation density in the southern part of the network. High quality P and S arrival times plus several reference velocity structures were used to create more than 80.000 input models in order to obtain a minimum 1D velocity model and associated P and S waves station correction terms. Aftershock locations are concentrated in NW-SE striking lineaments reaching the trench. Additionally, we computed moment tensor solutions for a subset of earthquakes to independently confirm hypocentre depths using a full waveform simulation approach. Based on this analysis we can identify normal and strike-slip events located in the marine forearc and close to the trench. This type of activity has been observed in previous megathrust earthquakes (e.g. Maule 2010 and Tohoku-Oki 2011), and might be associated with extensional re-activation of existing fault systems due to a large event located on the megathrust fault.

  18. Non-inductive components of electromagnetic signals associated with L'Aquila earthquake sequences estimated by means of inter-station impulse response functions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. Di Lorenzo

    2011-04-01

    Full Text Available On 6 April 2009 at 01:32:39 UT a strong earthquake occurred west of L'Aquila at the very shallow depth of 9 km. The main shock local magnitude was Ml = 5.8 (Mw = 6.3. Several powerful aftershocks occurred the following days. The epicentre of the main shock occurred 6 km away from the Geomagnetic Observatory of L'Aquila, on a fault 15 km long having a NW-SE strike, about 140°, and a SW dip of about 42°. For this reason, L'Aquila seismic events offered very favourable conditions to detect possible electromagnetic emissions related to the earthquake. The data used in this work come from the permanent geomagnetic Observatories of L'Aquila and Duronia. Here the results concerning the analysis of the residual magnetic field estimated by means of the inter-station impulse response functions in the frequency band from 0.3 Hz to 3 Hz are shown.

  19. Estimating the Probability of Earthquake-Induced Landslides

    Science.gov (United States)

    McRae, M. E.; Christman, M. C.; Soller, D. R.; Sutter, J. F.

    2001-12-01

    The development of a regionally applicable, predictive model for earthquake-triggered landslides is needed to improve mitigation decisions at the community level. The distribution of landslides triggered by the 1994 Northridge earthquake in the Oat Mountain and Simi Valley quadrangles of southern California provided an inventory of failures against which to evaluate the significance of a variety of physical variables in probabilistic models of static slope stability. Through a cooperative project, the California Division of Mines and Geology provided 10-meter resolution data on elevation, slope angle, coincidence of bedding plane and topographic slope, distribution of pre-Northridge landslides, internal friction angle and cohesive strength of individual geologic units. Hydrologic factors were not evaluated since failures in the study area were dominated by shallow, disrupted landslides in dry materials. Previous studies indicate that 10-meter digital elevation data is required to properly characterize the short, steep slopes on which many earthquake-induced landslides occur. However, to explore the robustness of the model at different spatial resolutions, models were developed at the 10, 50, and 100-meter resolution using classification and regression tree (CART) analysis and logistic regression techniques. Multiple resampling algorithms were tested for each variable in order to observe how resampling affects the statistical properties of each grid, and how relationships between variables within the model change with increasing resolution. Various transformations of the independent variables were used to see which had the strongest relationship with the probability of failure. These transformations were based on deterministic relationships in the factor of safety equation. Preliminary results were similar for all spatial scales. Topographic variables dominate the predictive capability of the models. The distribution of prior landslides and the coincidence of slope

  20. Extreme value statistics and thermodynamics of earthquakes. Large earthquakes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lavenda, B. [Camerino Univ., Camerino, MC (Italy); Cipollone, E. [ENEA, Centro Ricerche Casaccia, S. Maria di Galeria, RM (Italy). National Centre for Research on Thermodynamics

    2000-06-01

    A compound Poisson process is used to derive a new shape parameter which can be used to discriminate between large earthquakes and aftershocks sequences. Sample exceedance distributions of large earthquakes are fitted to the Pareto tail and the actual distribution of the maximum to the Frechet distribution, while the sample distribution of aftershocks are fitted to a Beta distribution and the distribution of the minimum to the Weibull distribution for the smallest value. The transition between initial sample distributions and asymptotic extreme value distributions show that self-similar power laws are transformed into non scaling exponential distributions so that neither self-similarity nor the Gutenberg-Richter law can be considered universal. The energy-magnitude transformation converts the Frechet distribution into the Gumbel distribution, originally proposed by Epstein and Lomnitz, and not the Gompertz distribution as in the Lomnitz-Adler and Lomnitz generalization of the Gutenberg-Richter law. Numerical comparison is made with the Lomnitz-Adler and Lomnitz analysis using the same catalogue of Chinese earthquakes. An analogy is drawn between large earthquakes and high energy particle physics. A generalized equation of state is used to transform the Gamma density into the order-statistic Frechet distribution. Earthquake temperature and volume are determined as functions of the energy. Large insurance claims based on the Pareto distribution, which does not have a right endpoint, show why there cannot be a maximum earthquake energy.

  1. Understanding Earthquakes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davis, Amanda; Gray, Ron

    2018-01-01

    December 26, 2004 was one of the deadliest days in modern history, when a 9.3 magnitude earthquake--the third largest ever recorded--struck off the coast of Sumatra in Indonesia (National Centers for Environmental Information 2014). The massive quake lasted at least 10 minutes and devastated the Indian Ocean. The quake displaced an estimated…

  2. GPS, Earthquakes, the Ionosphere, and the Space Shuttle

    Science.gov (United States)

    Calais, Eric; Minster, J. Bernard

    1998-01-01

    Sources such as atmospheric or buried explosions and shallow earthquakes producing strong vertical ground displacements are known to produce infrasonic pressure waves in the atmosphere. Because of the coupling between neutral particles and electrons at ionospheric altitudes, these acoustic waves induce variations of the ionospheric electron density. The Global Positioning System provides a way of directly measuring the Total Electron Content in the ionosphere and, therefore. of detecting such perturbations in the upper atmosphere. In this work, we demonstrate the capabilities of the GPS technique to detect ionospheric perturbations caused by the January 17. 1994, M (sub w) =6.7, Northridge earthquake and the STS-58 Space Shuttle ascent. In both cases, we observe a perturbation of the ionospheric electron density lasting for about 30 m, with periods less than 10 m. The perturbation is complex and shows two sub-events separated by about 15 m. The phase velocities and waveform characteristics of the two sub-events lead us to interpret the first arrival as the direct propagation of 2 free wave, followed by oscillatory guided waves propagating along horizontal atmospheric interfaces at 120 km altitude and below.

  3. Darwin's earthquake.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Richard V

    2010-07-01

    Charles Darwin experienced a major earthquake in the Concepción-Valdivia region of Chile 175 years ago, in February 1835. His observations dramatically illustrated the geologic principles of James Hutton and Charles Lyell which maintained that the surface of the earth was subject to alterations by natural events, such as earthquakes, volcanoes, and the erosive action of wind and water, operating over very long periods of time. Changes in the land created new environments and fostered adaptations in life forms that could lead to the formation of new species. Without the demonstration of the accumulation of multiple crustal events over time in Chile, the biologic implications of the specific species of birds and tortoises found in the Galapagos Islands and the formulation of the concept of natural selection might have remained dormant.

  4. Connecting slow earthquakes to huge earthquakes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Obara, Kazushige; Kato, Aitaro

    2016-07-15

    Slow earthquakes are characterized by a wide spectrum of fault slip behaviors and seismic radiation patterns that differ from those of traditional earthquakes. However, slow earthquakes and huge megathrust earthquakes can have common slip mechanisms and are located in neighboring regions of the seismogenic zone. The frequent occurrence of slow earthquakes may help to reveal the physics underlying megathrust events as useful analogs. Slow earthquakes may function as stress meters because of their high sensitivity to stress changes in the seismogenic zone. Episodic stress transfer to megathrust source faults leads to an increased probability of triggering huge earthquakes if the adjacent locked region is critically loaded. Careful and precise monitoring of slow earthquakes may provide new information on the likelihood of impending huge earthquakes. Copyright © 2016, American Association for the Advancement of Science.

  5. Contingency Contracting in Support of Conus Disasters: A Case Study of the 1994 Northridge Earthquake, 2005 Hurricane Katrina and 2012 Hurricane Sandy

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-06-01

    trash , construction material, and organic material in pick up containers. Construction and demolition debris on normal collection days prior to the ...into the Gulf of Mexico , it rapidly gained in strength and size due to the warm waters of the Gulf. After reaching Category 3 status, the storm...Over The Gulf Of Mexico On August 28, 2005. This NOAA Image Is In The Public Domain. Goes-12 4 Km Infrared Imagery. — Photo By alancrosthwaite

  6. Earthquake Early Warning Systems

    OpenAIRE

    Pei-Yang Lin

    2011-01-01

    Because of Taiwan’s unique geographical environment, earthquake disasters occur frequently in Taiwan. The Central Weather Bureau collated earthquake data from between 1901 and 2006 (Central Weather Bureau, 2007) and found that 97 earthquakes had occurred, of which, 52 resulted in casualties. The 921 Chichi Earthquake had the most profound impact. Because earthquakes have instant destructive power and current scientific technologies cannot provide precise early warnings in advance, earthquake ...

  7. Predictable earthquakes?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martini, D.

    2002-12-01

    acceleration) and global number of earthquake for this period from published literature which give us a great picture about the dynamical geophysical phenomena. Methodology: The computing of linear correlation coefficients gives us a chance to quantitatively characterise the relation among the data series, if we suppose a linear dependence in the first step. The correlation coefficients among the Earth's rotational acceleration and Z-orbit acceleration (perpendicular to the ecliptic plane) and the global number of the earthquakes were compared. The results clearly demonstrate the common feature of both the Earth's rotation and Earth's Z-acceleration around the Sun and also between the Earth's rotational acceleration and the earthquake number. This fact might means a strong relation among these phenomena. The mentioned rather strong correlation (r = 0.75) and the 29 year period (Saturn's synodic period) was clearly shown in the counted cross correlation function, which gives the dynamical characteristic of correlation, of Earth's orbital- (Z-direction) and rotational acceleration. This basic period (29 year) was also obvious in the earthquake number data sets with clear common features in time. Conclusion: The Core, which involves the secular variation of the Earth's magnetic field, is the only sufficiently mobile part of the Earth with a sufficient mass to modify the rotation which probably effects on the global time distribution of the earthquakes. Therefore it might means that the secular variation of the earthquakes is inseparable from the changes in Earth's magnetic field, i.e. the interior process of the Earth's core belongs to the dynamical state of the solar system. Therefore if the described idea is real the global distribution of the earthquakes in time is predictable.

  8. Defeating Earthquakes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stein, R. S.

    2012-12-01

    The 2004 M=9.2 Sumatra earthquake claimed what seemed an unfathomable 228,000 lives, although because of its size, we could at least assure ourselves that it was an extremely rare event. But in the short space of 8 years, the Sumatra quake no longer looks like an anomaly, and it is no longer even the worst disaster of the Century: 80,000 deaths in the 2005 M=7.6 Pakistan quake; 88,000 deaths in the 2008 M=7.9 Wenchuan, China quake; 316,000 deaths in the M=7.0 Haiti, quake. In each case, poor design and construction were unable to withstand the ferocity of the shaken earth. And this was compounded by inadequate rescue, medical care, and shelter. How could the toll continue to mount despite the advances in our understanding of quake risk? The world's population is flowing into megacities, and many of these migration magnets lie astride the plate boundaries. Caught between these opposing demographic and seismic forces are 50 cities of at least 3 million people threatened by large earthquakes, the targets of chance. What we know for certain is that no one will take protective measures unless they are convinced they are at risk. Furnishing that knowledge is the animating principle of the Global Earthquake Model, launched in 2009. At the very least, everyone should be able to learn what his or her risk is. At the very least, our community owes the world an estimate of that risk. So, first and foremost, GEM seeks to raise quake risk awareness. We have no illusions that maps or models raise awareness; instead, earthquakes do. But when a quake strikes, people need a credible place to go to answer the question, how vulnerable am I, and what can I do about it? The Global Earthquake Model is being built with GEM's new open source engine, OpenQuake. GEM is also assembling the global data sets without which we will never improve our understanding of where, how large, and how frequently earthquakes will strike, what impacts they will have, and how those impacts can be lessened by

  9. Continuing megathrust earthquake potential in Chile after the 2014 Iquique earthquake.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hayes, Gavin P; Herman, Matthew W; Barnhart, William D; Furlong, Kevin P; Riquelme, Sebástian; Benz, Harley M; Bergman, Eric; Barrientos, Sergio; Earle, Paul S; Samsonov, Sergey

    2014-08-21

    The seismic gap theory identifies regions of elevated hazard based on a lack of recent seismicity in comparison with other portions of a fault. It has successfully explained past earthquakes (see, for example, ref. 2) and is useful for qualitatively describing where large earthquakes might occur. A large earthquake had been expected in the subduction zone adjacent to northern Chile, which had not ruptured in a megathrust earthquake since a M ∼8.8 event in 1877. On 1 April 2014 a M 8.2 earthquake occurred within this seismic gap. Here we present an assessment of the seismotectonics of the March-April 2014 Iquique sequence, including analyses of earthquake relocations, moment tensors, finite fault models, moment deficit calculations and cumulative Coulomb stress transfer. This ensemble of information allows us to place the sequence within the context of regional seismicity and to identify areas of remaining and/or elevated hazard. Our results constrain the size and spatial extent of rupture, and indicate that this was not the earthquake that had been anticipated. Significant sections of the northern Chile subduction zone have not ruptured in almost 150 years, so it is likely that future megathrust earthquakes will occur to the south and potentially to the north of the 2014 Iquique sequence.

  10. Full Aftershock Sequence of the M w 6.9 2003 Boumerdes Earthquake, Algeria: Space-Time Distribution, Local Tomography and Seismotectonic Implications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kherroubi, Abdelaziz; Yelles-Chaouche, Abdelkrim; Koulakov, Ivan; Déverchère, Jacques; Beldjoudi, Hamoud; Haned, Abderrahmane; Semmane, Fethi; Aidi, Chafik

    2017-07-01

    We present a detailed analysis of the aftershocks of the May 21, 2003 Boumerdes earthquake ( M w = 6.9) recorded by 35 seismological stations and 2 OBS deployed in the epicentral area. This network recorded the aftershock activity for about 1 year and resulted in locating about 2500 events. The five main aftershocks (4.7 < M <5.8) display thrust faulting consistent with the main shock, except for the second event (M5.8, 29/05/2003) which depicts a strike-slip focal solution at the western tip of the rupture zone. Most aftershocks are clustered near the main rupture plane, in the footwall or at the westernmost tip of the 2003 Boumerdes rupture area. Many aftershocks last over the whole seismic crisis ahead (north) of the main rupture zone, forming a diffuse, low-angle surface within the footwall where the coseismic static stress change is predicted to increase. At the SW tip of the rupture, short-lived clusters locate at intersections of faults near the contact between the inner (Kabylia) and outer (Tell) zones. The tomographic inversion depicts high-velocity P- and S-wave anomalies coinciding with Miocene magmatic intrusive bodies in the upper crust, partially hidden by surrounding basins. The area of the main shock is associated with a large low-velocity body subdivided into sub-domains, including Neogene basins on land and offshore. Our results support a rupture model strongly controlled by geological inhomogeneities and extending as ramp-flat-ramp systems upward, favoring heterogeneous slip and segmentation in the fault plane with strong afterslip toward the surface. The diffuse aftershock activity in the footwall evidences an inherited discontinuity at mid-crustal depth that we interpret as the contact of Kabylian and African (Tethyan) continental crusts that were stacked during the Upper Miocene collision.

  11. Extreme value statistics and thermodynamics of earthquakes: large earthquakes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B. H. Lavenda

    2000-06-01

    Full Text Available A compound Poisson process is used to derive a new shape parameter which can be used to discriminate between large earthquakes and aftershock sequences. Sample exceedance distributions of large earthquakes are fitted to the Pareto tail and the actual distribution of the maximum to the Fréchet distribution, while the sample distribution of aftershocks are fitted to a Beta distribution and the distribution of the minimum to the Weibull distribution for the smallest value. The transition between initial sample distributions and asymptotic extreme value distributions shows that self-similar power laws are transformed into nonscaling exponential distributions so that neither self-similarity nor the Gutenberg-Richter law can be considered universal. The energy-magnitude transformation converts the Fréchet distribution into the Gumbel distribution, originally proposed by Epstein and Lomnitz, and not the Gompertz distribution as in the Lomnitz-Adler and Lomnitz generalization of the Gutenberg-Richter law. Numerical comparison is made with the Lomnitz-Adler and Lomnitz analysis using the same Catalogue of Chinese Earthquakes. An analogy is drawn between large earthquakes and high energy particle physics. A generalized equation of state is used to transform the Gamma density into the order-statistic Fréchet distribution. Earthquaketemperature and volume are determined as functions of the energy. Large insurance claims based on the Pareto distribution, which does not have a right endpoint, show why there cannot be a maximum earthquake energy.

  12. Hazus® estimated annualized earthquake losses for the United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jaiswal, Kishor; Bausch, Doug; Rozelle, Jesse; Holub, John; McGowan, Sean

    2017-01-01

    Large earthquakes can cause social and economic disruption that can be unprecedented to any given community, and the full recovery from these impacts may or may not always be achievable. In the United States (U.S.), the 1994 M6.7 Northridge earthquake in California remains the third costliest disaster in U.S. history; and it was one of the most expensive disasters for the federal government. Internationally, earthquakes in the last decade alone have claimed tens of thousands of lives and caused hundreds of billions of dollars of economic impact throughout the globe (~90 billion U.S. dollars (USD) from 2008 M7.9 Wenchuan China, ~20 billion USD from 2010 M8.8 Maule earthquake in Chile, ~220 billion USD from 2011 M9.0 Tohoku Japan earthquake, ~25 billion USD from 2011 M6.3 Christchurch New Zealand, and ~22 billion USD from 2016 M7.0 Kumamoto Japan). Recent earthquakes show a pattern of steadily increasing damages and losses that are primarily due to three key factors: (1) significant growth in earthquake-prone urban areas, (2) vulnerability of the older building stock, including poorly engineered non-ductile concrete buildings, and (3) an increased interdependency in terms of supply and demand for the businesses that operate among different parts of the world. In the United States, earthquake risk continues to grow with increased exposure of population and development even though the earthquake hazard has remained relatively stable except for the regions of induced seismic activity. Understanding the seismic hazard requires studying earthquake characteristics and locales in which they occur, while understanding the risk requires an assessment of the potential damage from earthquake shaking to the built environment and to the welfare of people—especially in high-risk areas. Estimating the varying degree of earthquake risk throughout the United States is critical for informed decision-making on mitigation policies, priorities, strategies, and funding levels in the

  13. Ionospheric Anomaly before Kyushu|Japan Earthquake

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    YANG Li

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available GIM data released by IGS is used in the article and a new method of combining the Sliding Time Window Method and the Ionospheric TEC correlation analysis method of adjacent grid points is proposed to study the relationship between pre-earthquake ionospheric anomalies and earthquake. By analyzing the abnormal change of TEC in the 5 grid points around the seismic region, the abnormal change of ionospheric TEC is found before the earthquake and the correlation between the TEC sequences of lattice points is significantly affected by earthquake. Based on the analysis of the spatial distribution of TEC anomaly, anomalies of 6 h, 12 h and 6 h were found near the epicenter three days before the earthquake. Finally, ionospheric tomographic technology is used to do tomographic inversion on electron density. And the distribution of the electron density in the ionospheric anomaly is further analyzed.

  14. Spatial Evaluation and Verification of Earthquake Simulators

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilson, John Max; Yoder, Mark R.; Rundle, John B.; Turcotte, Donald L.; Schultz, Kasey W.

    2017-06-01

    In this paper, we address the problem of verifying earthquake simulators with observed data. Earthquake simulators are a class of computational simulations which attempt to mirror the topological complexity of fault systems on which earthquakes occur. In addition, the physics of friction and elastic interactions between fault elements are included in these simulations. Simulation parameters are adjusted so that natural earthquake sequences are matched in their scaling properties. Physically based earthquake simulators can generate many thousands of years of simulated seismicity, allowing for a robust capture of the statistical properties of large, damaging earthquakes that have long recurrence time scales. Verification of simulations against current observed earthquake seismicity is necessary, and following past simulator and forecast model verification methods, we approach the challenges in spatial forecast verification to simulators; namely, that simulator outputs are confined to the modeled faults, while observed earthquake epicenters often occur off of known faults. We present two methods for addressing this discrepancy: a simplistic approach whereby observed earthquakes are shifted to the nearest fault element and a smoothing method based on the power laws of the epidemic-type aftershock (ETAS) model, which distributes the seismicity of each simulated earthquake over the entire test region at a decaying rate with epicentral distance. To test these methods, a receiver operating characteristic plot was produced by comparing the rate maps to observed m>6.0 earthquakes in California since 1980. We found that the nearest-neighbor mapping produced poor forecasts, while the ETAS power-law method produced rate maps that agreed reasonably well with observations.

  15. Estimation of Maximum Magnitudes of Subduction Earthquakes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Muldashev, Iskander; Sobolev, Stephan

    2017-04-01

    Even though methods of instrumentally observing earthquakes at subduction zones have rapidly improved in recent decades, the characteristic recurrence interval of giant subduction earthquakes (Mw>8.5) is much larger than the currently available observational record and therefore the necessary conditions for giant earthquakes are not clear. However, the statistical studies have recognized the importance of the slab shape and its surface roughness, state of the strain of the upper plate and thickness of sediments filling the trenches. Here we apply cross-scale seismic cycle modeling technique (Sobolev and Muldashev, under review) to study key factors controlling maximum magnitudes of earthquakes in subduction zones. Our models employ elasticity, non-linear transient viscous rheology and rate-and-state friction. They generate spontaneous earthquake sequences and by using adaptive time-step algorithm, recreate the deformation process as observed naturally during seismic cycle and multiple seismic cycles. We explore effects of slab geometry, megathrust friction coefficients, and convergence rates on the magnitude of earthquakes. We found that the low-angle subduction (largest effect) and low static friction, likely caused by thick sediments in the subduction channel (smaller effect) are the key factors controlling magnitude of great earthquakes, while the change of subduction velocity from 10 to 3.5 cm/yr has much lower effect. Modeling results also suggest that thick sediments in the subduction channel causing low static friction, result in neutral or compressive deformation in the overriding plate for low-angle subduction zones in agreement with observations for the giant earthquakes. The model also predicts the magnitudes of the largest possible earthquakes for subduction zones of given dipping angles. We demonstrate that our predictions are consistent with all known giant subduction earthquakes of 20th and 21st centuries and with estimations for historical

  16. Natural Time, Nowcasting and the Physics of Earthquakes: Estimation of Seismic Risk to Global Megacities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rundle, John B.; Luginbuhl, Molly; Giguere, Alexis; Turcotte, Donald L.

    2017-11-01

    Natural Time ("NT") refers to the concept of using small earthquake counts, for example of M > 3 events, to mark the intervals between large earthquakes, for example M > 6 events. The term was first used by Varotsos et al. (2005) and later by Holliday et al. (2006) in their studies of earthquakes. In this paper, we discuss ideas and applications arising from the use of NT to understand earthquake dynamics, in particular by use of the idea of nowcasting. Nowcasting differs from forecasting, in that the goal of nowcasting is to estimate the current state of the system, rather than the probability of a future event. Rather than focus on an individual earthquake faults, we focus on a defined local geographic region surrounding a particular location. This local region is considered to be embedded in a larger regional setting from which we accumulate the relevant statistics. We apply the nowcasting idea to the practical development of methods to estimate the current state of risk for dozens of the world's seismically exposed megacities, defined as cities having populations of over 1 million persons. We compute a ranking of these cities based on their current nowcast value, and discuss the advantages and limitations of this approach. We note explicitly that the nowcast method is not a model, in that there are no free parameters to be fit to data. Rather, the method is simply a presentation of statistical data, which the user can interpret. Among other results, we find, for example, that the current nowcast ranking of the Los Angeles region is comparable to its ranking just prior to the January 17, 1994 Northridge earthquake.

  17. Natural Time, Nowcasting and the Physics of Earthquakes: Estimation of Seismic Risk to Global Megacities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rundle, John B.; Luginbuhl, Molly; Giguere, Alexis; Turcotte, Donald L.

    2018-02-01

    Natural Time ("NT") refers to the concept of using small earthquake counts, for example of M > 3 events, to mark the intervals between large earthquakes, for example M > 6 events. The term was first used by Varotsos et al. (2005) and later by Holliday et al. (2006) in their studies of earthquakes. In this paper, we discuss ideas and applications arising from the use of NT to understand earthquake dynamics, in particular by use of the idea of nowcasting. Nowcasting differs from forecasting, in that the goal of nowcasting is to estimate the current state of the system, rather than the probability of a future event. Rather than focus on an individual earthquake faults, we focus on a defined local geographic region surrounding a particular location. This local region is considered to be embedded in a larger regional setting from which we accumulate the relevant statistics. We apply the nowcasting idea to the practical development of methods to estimate the current state of risk for dozens of the world's seismically exposed megacities, defined as cities having populations of over 1 million persons. We compute a ranking of these cities based on their current nowcast value, and discuss the advantages and limitations of this approach. We note explicitly that the nowcast method is not a model, in that there are no free parameters to be fit to data. Rather, the method is simply a presentation of statistical data, which the user can interpret. Among other results, we find, for example, that the current nowcast ranking of the Los Angeles region is comparable to its ranking just prior to the January 17, 1994 Northridge earthquake.

  18. Earthquake activity along the Himalayan orogenic belt

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bai, L.; Mori, J. J.

    2017-12-01

    The collision between the Indian and Eurasian plates formed the Himalayas, the largest orogenic belt on the Earth. The entire region accommodates shallow earthquakes, while intermediate-depth earthquakes are concentrated at the eastern and western Himalayan syntaxis. Here we investigate the focal depths, fault plane solutions, and source rupture process for three earthquake sequences, which are located at the western, central and eastern regions of the Himalayan orogenic belt. The Pamir-Hindu Kush region is located at the western Himalayan syntaxis and is characterized by extreme shortening of the upper crust and strong interaction of various layers of the lithosphere. Many shallow earthquakes occur on the Main Pamir Thrust at focal depths shallower than 20 km, while intermediate-deep earthquakes are mostly located below 75 km. Large intermediate-depth earthquakes occur frequently at the western Himalayan syntaxis about every 10 years on average. The 2015 Nepal earthquake is located in the central Himalayas. It is a typical megathrust earthquake that occurred on the shallow portion of the Main Himalayan Thrust (MHT). Many of the aftershocks are located above the MHT and illuminate faulting structures in the hanging wall with dip angles that are steeper than the MHT. These observations provide new constraints on the collision and uplift processes for the Himalaya orogenic belt. The Indo-Burma region is located south of the eastern Himalayan syntaxis, where the strike of the plate boundary suddenly changes from nearly east-west at the Himalayas to nearly north-south at the Burma Arc. The Burma arc subduction zone is a typical oblique plate convergence zone. The eastern boundary is the north-south striking dextral Sagaing fault, which hosts many shallow earthquakes with focal depth less than 25 km. In contrast, intermediate-depth earthquakes along the subduction zone reflect east-west trending reverse faulting.

  19. Dynamic rupture scenarios from Sumatra to Iceland - High-resolution earthquake source physics on natural fault systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gabriel, Alice-Agnes; Madden, Elizabeth H.; Ulrich, Thomas; Wollherr, Stephanie

    2017-04-01

    Capturing the observed complexity of earthquake sources in dynamic rupture simulations may require: non-linear fault friction, thermal and fluid effects, heterogeneous fault stress and fault strength initial conditions, fault curvature and roughness, on- and off-fault non-elastic failure. All of these factors have been independently shown to alter dynamic rupture behavior and thus possibly influence the degree of realism attainable via simulated ground motions. In this presentation we will show examples of high-resolution earthquake scenarios, e.g. based on the 2004 Sumatra-Andaman Earthquake, the 1994 Northridge earthquake and a potential rupture of the Husavik-Flatey fault system in Northern Iceland. The simulations combine a multitude of representations of source complexity at the necessary spatio-temporal resolution enabled by excellent scalability on modern HPC systems. Such simulations allow an analysis of the dominant factors impacting earthquake source physics and ground motions given distinct tectonic settings or distinct focuses of seismic hazard assessment. Across all simulations, we find that fault geometry concurrently with the regional background stress state provide a first order influence on source dynamics and the emanated seismic wave field. The dynamic rupture models are performed with SeisSol, a software package based on an ADER-Discontinuous Galerkin scheme for solving the spontaneous dynamic earthquake rupture problem with high-order accuracy in space and time. Use of unstructured tetrahedral meshes allows for a realistic representation of the non-planar fault geometry, subsurface structure and bathymetry. The results presented highlight the fact that modern numerical methods are essential to further our understanding of earthquake source physics and complement both physic-based ground motion research and empirical approaches in seismic hazard analysis.

  20. Interaction of the san jacinto and san andreas fault zones, southern california: triggered earthquake migration and coupled recurrence intervals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sanders, C O

    1993-05-14

    Two lines of evidence suggest that large earthquakes that occur on either the San Jacinto fault zone (SJFZ) or the San Andreas fault zone (SAFZ) may be triggered by large earthquakes that occur on the other. First, the great 1857 Fort Tejon earthquake in the SAFZ seems to have triggered a progressive sequence of earthquakes in the SJFZ. These earthquakes occurred at times and locations that are consistent with triggering by a strain pulse that propagated southeastward at a rate of 1.7 kilometers per year along the SJFZ after the 1857 earthquake. Second, the similarity in average recurrence intervals in the SJFZ (about 150 years) and in the Mojave segment of the SAFZ (132 years) suggests that large earthquakes in the northern SJFZ may stimulate the relatively frequent major earthquakes on the Mojave segment. Analysis of historic earthquake occurrence in the SJFZ suggests little likelihood of extended quiescence between earthquake sequences.

  1. Earthquake friction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mulargia, Francesco; Bizzarri, Andrea

    2016-12-01

    Laboratory friction slip experiments on rocks provide firm evidence that the static friction coefficient μ has values ∼0.7. This would imply large amounts of heat produced by seismically active faults, but no heat flow anomaly is observed, and mineralogic evidence of frictional heating is virtually absent. This stands for lower μ values ∼0.2, as also required by the observed orientation of faults with respect to the maximum compressive stress. We show that accounting for the thermal and mechanical energy balance of the system removes this inconsistence, implying a multi-stage strain release process. The first stage consists of a small and slow aseismic slip at high friction on pre-existent stress concentrators within the fault volume but angled with the main fault as Riedel cracks. This introduces a second stage dominated by frictional temperature increase inducing local pressurization of pore fluids around the slip patches, which is in turn followed by a third stage in which thermal diffusion extends the frictionally heated zones making them coalesce into a connected pressurized region oriented as the fault plane. Then, the system enters a state of equivalent low static friction in which it can undergo the fast elastic radiation slip prescribed by dislocation earthquake models.

  2. Pre-earthquake burden of illness and postearthquake health and preparedness in veterans.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Der-Martirosian, Claudia; Riopelle, Deborah; Naranjo, Diana; Yano, Elizabeth M; Rubenstein, Lisa V; Dobalian, Aram

    2014-06-01

    During an earthquake, vulnerable populations, especially those with chronic conditions, are more susceptible to adverse, event-induced exacerbation of chronic conditions such as limited access to food and water, extreme weather temperatures, and injury. These circumstances merit special attention when health care facilities and organizations prepare for and respond to disasters. This study explores the relationship between pre-earthquake burden of illness and post earthquake health-related and preparedness factors in the US. Data from a cohort of male veterans who were receiving care at the Sepulveda Veterans Affairs Medical Center (VAMC) in Los Angeles, California USA during the 1994 Northridge earthquake were analyzed. Veterans with one or more chronic conditions were more likely to report pain lasting two or more days, severe mental/emotional stress for more than two weeks, broken/lost medical equipment, having difficulty refilling prescriptions, and being unable to get medical help following the quake compared to veterans without chronic conditions. In terms of personal emergency preparedness, however, there was no association between burden of illness and having enough food or water for at least 24 hours after the earthquake. The relationship that exists between health care providers, including both individual providers and organizations like the US Department of Veterans Affairs (VA), and their vulnerable, chronically-ill patients affords providers the unique opportunity to deliver critical assistance that could make this vulnerable population better prepared to meet their post disaster health-related needs. This can be accomplished through education about preparedness and the provision of easier access to medical supplies. Disaster plans for those who are burdened with chronic conditions should meet their social needs in addition to their psychological and physical needs.

  3. Earthquakes: hydrogeochemical precursors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ingebritsen, Steven E.; Manga, Michael

    2014-01-01

    Earthquake prediction is a long-sought goal. Changes in groundwater chemistry before earthquakes in Iceland highlight a potential hydrogeochemical precursor, but such signals must be evaluated in the context of long-term, multiparametric data sets.

  4. Real-time earthquake shake, damage, and loss mapping for Istanbul metropolitan area

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zülfikar, A. Can; Fercan, N. Özge Zülfikar; Tunç, Süleyman; Erdik, Mustafa

    2017-01-01

    The past devastating earthquakes in densely populated urban centers, such as the 1994 Northridge; 1995 Kobe; 1999 series of Kocaeli, Düzce, and Athens; and 2011 Van-Erciş events, showed that substantial social and economic losses can be expected. Previous studies indicate that inadequate emergency response can increase the number of casualties by a maximum factor of 10, which suggests the need for research on rapid earthquake shaking damage and loss estimation. The reduction in casualties in urban areas immediately following an earthquake can be improved if the location and severity of damages can be rapidly assessed by information from rapid response systems. In this context, a research project (TUBITAK-109M734) titled "Real-time Information of Earthquake Shaking, Damage, and Losses for Target Cities of Thessaloniki and Istanbul" was conducted during 2011-2014 to establish the rapid estimation of ground motion shaking and related earthquake damages and casualties for the target cities. In the present study, application to Istanbul metropolitan area is presented. In order to fulfill this objective, earthquake hazard and risk assessment methodology known as Earthquake Loss Estimation Routine, which was developed for the Euro-Mediterranean region within the Network of Research Infrastructures for European Seismology EC-FP6 project, was used. The current application to the Istanbul metropolitan area provides real-time ground motion information obtained by strong motion stations distributed throughout the densely populated areas of the city. According to this ground motion information, building damage estimation is computed by using grid-based building inventory, and the related loss is then estimated. Through this application, the rapidly estimated information enables public and private emergency management authorities to take action and allocate and prioritize resources to minimize the casualties in urban areas during immediate post-earthquake periods. Moreover, it

  5. Redefining Earthquakes and the Earthquake Machine

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hubenthal, Michael; Braile, Larry; Taber, John

    2008-01-01

    The Earthquake Machine (EML), a mechanical model of stick-slip fault systems, can increase student engagement and facilitate opportunities to participate in the scientific process. This article introduces the EML model and an activity that challenges ninth-grade students' misconceptions about earthquakes. The activity emphasizes the role of models…

  6. Children's Ideas about Earthquakes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Simsek, Canan Lacin

    2007-01-01

    Earthquake, a natural disaster, is among the fundamental problems of many countries. If people know how to protect themselves from earthquake and arrange their life styles in compliance with this, damage they will suffer will reduce to that extent. In particular, a good training regarding earthquake to be received in primary schools is considered…

  7. Comment on 'Diffusion of epicenters of earthquake aftershocks, Omori's law, and generalized continuous-time random walk models'

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Marsan, David; Bean, Christopher J.

    2004-01-01

    Modeling of earthquake sequences using an epidemic-type aftershock sequence model by Helmstetter and Sornette [Phys. Rev. E 66, 061104 (2002)] has led these authors to conclude that previous analyses of apparent earthquake diffusions were flawed. We show here that diffusion analyses based on spatiotemporal correlation measures for earthquake populations are an appropriate method for capturing the space-time coupling present in earthquake triggering processes

  8. Earthquake cycle deformation and the Moho: Implications for the rheology of continental lithosphere

    OpenAIRE

    Wright, TJ; Elliott, JR; Wang, H; Ryder, I

    2013-01-01

    The last 20. years has seen a dramatic improvement in the quantity and quality of geodetic measurements of the earthquake loading cycle. In this paper we compile and review these observations and test whether crustal thickness exerts any control. We found 78 earthquake source mechanisms for continental earthquakes derived from satellite geodesy, 187 estimates of interseismic "locking depth", and 23 earthquakes (or sequences) for which postseismic deformation has been observed. Globally we est...

  9. Decisionmaking in hospital earthquake evacuation: does distance from the epicenter matter?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schultz, Carl H; Koenig, Kristi L; Lewis, Roger J

    2007-09-01

    Over large expanses, the risk for hospital damage from an earthquake attenuates as the distance from the epicenter increases, which may not be true within the immediate disaster zone (near field), however. The following study examines the impact of epicenter distance and ground motion on hospital evacuation and closure for those structures near the epicenter of the 1994 Northridge Earthquake and the implications for patient evacuation. This is a retrospective case-control study of all hospitals reporting off-site evacuations or permanent closure because of damage from the January 17, 1994, earthquake in Northridge, CA. Control hospitals were randomly identified from those facilities that did not evacuate patients. Distances from the epicenter and peak ground accelerations were calculated for each hospital from Trinet ShakeMap data and compared. Eight hospitals evacuated patients (study group); 4 of these hospitals were condemned. These were compared to 8 hospitals that did not evacuate patients (control group). The median epicenter-to-hospital distance for evacuated facilities was 8.1 miles (interquartile range [IQRs] 4.0 to 17.2 miles), whereas that for nonevacuated facilities was 14.1 miles (IRQ 10.5 to 17.0 miles). The difference in the median distances was 6.0 miles (95% confidence interval -4.8 to 11.9 miles). The peak ground acceleration had a median of 0.77 g (IQR 0.53 to 0.85 g) for study hospitals and a median of 0.36 g (IQR 0.24 to 0.50 g) for control hospitals, where 1 g equals the force of gravity. The difference in median acceleration of 0.41 g (95% CI 0.14 to 0.55 g) was significant (P=.009). The distances from the epicenter for evacuated or condemned facilities and control hospitals do not appear to differ in the near field. Peak ground acceleration is a superior indicator of the risk for hospital damage and evacuation. Physicians can obtain these data in real time from the Internet and should transfer patients to facilities in areas of lower

  10. Crowdsourced earthquake early warning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Minson, Sarah E.; Brooks, Benjamin A.; Glennie, Craig L.; Murray, Jessica R.; Langbein, John O.; Owen, Susan E.; Heaton, Thomas H.; Iannucci, Robert A.; Hauser, Darren L.

    2015-01-01

    Earthquake early warning (EEW) can reduce harm to people and infrastructure from earthquakes and tsunamis, but it has not been implemented in most high earthquake-risk regions because of prohibitive cost. Common consumer devices such as smartphones contain low-cost versions of the sensors used in EEW. Although less accurate than scientific-grade instruments, these sensors are globally ubiquitous. Through controlled tests of consumer devices, simulation of an Mw (moment magnitude) 7 earthquake on California’s Hayward fault, and real data from the Mw 9 Tohoku-oki earthquake, we demonstrate that EEW could be achieved via crowdsourcing.

  11. Earthquake forecasting and warning

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rikitake, T.

    1983-01-01

    This review briefly describes two other books on the same subject either written or partially written by Rikitake. In this book, the status of earthquake prediction efforts in Japan, China, the Soviet Union, and the United States are updated. An overview of some of the organizational, legal, and societal aspects of earthquake prediction in these countries is presented, and scientific findings of precursory phenomena are included. A summary of circumstances surrounding the 1975 Haicheng earthquake, the 1978 Tangshan earthquake, and the 1976 Songpan-Pingwu earthquake (all magnitudes = 7.0) in China and the 1978 Izu-Oshima earthquake in Japan is presented. This book fails to comprehensively summarize recent advances in earthquake prediction research.

  12. Earthquake Tests of Reinforced Concrete Frames

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Skjærbæk, P. S.; Nielsen, Søren R.K.; Kirkegaard, Poul Henning

    1997-01-01

    the equilibrium state. Afterwards the test structure is subjected to the three strong ground motion oscillations where the two first sequences are followed by a free decay test. No free decay test was performed after the third earthquake due to collapse of the test structure during the third strong motion...

  13. Earthquake Tests of Reinforced Concrete Frames

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Skjærbæk, P. S.; Nielsen, Søren R.K.; Kirkegaard, Poul Henning

    1996-01-01

    the equilibrium state. Afterwards the test structure is subjected to the three strong ground motion oscillations where the two first sequences are followed by a free decay test. No free decay test was performed after the third earthquake due to collapse of the test structure during the third strong motion...

  14. Mentoring Through Research as a Catalyst for the Success of Under-represented Minority Students in the Geosciences at California State University Northridge

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marsaglia, K. M.; Pedone, V.; Simila, G. W.; Yule, J. D.

    2002-12-01

    The Catalyst Program of the Department of Geological Sciences at California State University Northridge has been developed by four faculty members who were the recipients of a three-year award (2002-2005) from the National Science Foundation. The goal of the program is to increase minority participation and success in the geosciences. The program seeks to enrich the educational experience by introducing students at all levels to research in the geosciences and to decrease obstacles that affect academic success. Both these goals are largely achieved by the formation of integrated high school, undergraduate, and graduate research groups, which also provide fulfilling and successful peer mentorship. The Catalyst Program provides significant financial support to participants to allow them to focus their time on their education. New participants first complete a specially designed course that introduces them to peer-mentoring, collaborative learning, and geological research. Students of all experience levels then become members of research teams, which deepens academic and research skills as well as peer-mentor relationships. The program was highly successful in its inaugural year. To date, undergraduates and graduate students in the program coauthored six abstracts at professional meetings and one conference paper. High-school students gained first hand experience of a college course and geologic research. Perhaps the most important impacts of the program are the close camaraderie that has developed and the increased ability of the Catalyst students to plan and execute research with greater confidence and self-esteem.

  15. Fractal Structure of inter-event distances: three examples for the aftershock series of Landers, Northridge and Hector Mine mainshocks (Southern California)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martinez, Maria-Dolors; Monterrubio, Marisol; Lana, Xavier; Serra, Carina

    2013-04-01

    The mechanism of the complex spatial distribution of aftershocks is illustrated by several fractal analyses of the series of distances, Δ, between consecutive events. These fractal techniques are applied to inter-event distance series corresponding to the aftershock series of Landers (1992), Northridge (1994) and Hector Mine (1999) mainshocks (Southern California). A first picture of this complex mechanism is offered by the concept of lacunarity. The persistence, anti-persistence or randomness is quantified by the Hurst exponent. At the same time, long/short range persistence or anti-persistence is determined by means of the autocorrelation function and the exponent β of the power spectrum density, S(?), modelled by the power law ?-β. The self-affine character of these series is analysed using semivariograms and Hausdorff exponents. Additionally, comparisons among Hurst, Hausdorff and β exponents permit to assess if the series of Δ could be modelled by filtered Gaussian noise series. Finally, the formulation based on the reconstruction theorem quantifies the complexity (minimum number of nonlinear equations), loss of memory (Kolmogorov entropy) and predictive instability and chaotic behaviour (Lyapunov exponents and Kaplan-Yorke dimension) of the mechanism.

  16. Validation of simulated earthquake ground motions based on evolution of intensity and frequency content

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rezaeian, Sanaz; Zhong, Peng; Hartzell, Stephen; Zareian, Farzin

    2015-01-01

    Simulated earthquake ground motions can be used in many recent engineering applications that require time series as input excitations. However, applicability and validation of simulations are subjects of debate in the seismological and engineering communities. We propose a validation methodology at the waveform level and directly based on characteristics that are expected to influence most structural and geotechnical response parameters. In particular, three time-dependent validation metrics are used to evaluate the evolving intensity, frequency, and bandwidth of a waveform. These validation metrics capture nonstationarities in intensity and frequency content of waveforms, making them ideal to address nonlinear response of structural systems. A two-component error vector is proposed to quantify the average and shape differences between these validation metrics for a simulated and recorded ground-motion pair. Because these metrics are directly related to the waveform characteristics, they provide easily interpretable feedback to seismologists for modifying their ground-motion simulation models. To further simplify the use and interpretation of these metrics for engineers, it is shown how six scalar key parameters, including duration, intensity, and predominant frequency, can be extracted from the validation metrics. The proposed validation methodology is a step forward in paving the road for utilization of simulated ground motions in engineering practice and is demonstrated using examples of recorded and simulated ground motions from the 1994 Northridge, California, earthquake.

  17. Perspectives on earthquake hazards in the New Madrid seismic zone, Missouri

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thenhaus, P.C.

    1990-01-01

    A sequence of three great earthquakes struck the Central United States during the winter of 1811-1812 in the area of New Madrid, Missouri. they are considered to be the greatest earthquakes in the conterminous U.S because they were felt and caused damage at far greater distances than any other earthquakes in U.S history. The large population currently living within the damage area of these earthquakes means that widespread destruction and loss of life is likely if the sequence were repeated. In contrast to California, where the earthquakes are felt frequently, the damaging earthquakes that have occurred in the Easter U.S-in 155 (Cape Ann, Mass.), 1811-12 (New Madrid, Mo.), 1886 (Charleston S.C) ,and 1897 (Giles County, Va.- are generally regarded as only historical phenomena (fig. 1). The social memory of these earthquakes no longer exists. A fundamental problem in the Eastern U.S, therefore, is that the earthquake hazard is not generally considered today in land-use and civic planning. This article offers perspectives on the earthquake hazard of the New Madrid seismic zone through discussions of the geology of the Mississippi Embayment, the historical earthquakes that have occurred there, the earthquake risk, and the "tools" that geoscientists have to study the region. The so-called earthquake hazard is defined  by the characterization of the physical attributes of the geological structures that cause earthquakes, the estimation of the recurrence times of the earthquakes, the estimation of the recurrence times of the earthquakes, their potential size, and the expected ground motions. the term "earthquake risk," on the other hand, refers to aspects of the expected damage to manmade strctures and to lifelines as a result of the earthquake hazard.  

  18. Learning from Earthquakes: 2014 Napa Valley Earthquake Reconnaissance Report

    OpenAIRE

    Fischer, Erica

    2014-01-01

    Structural damage was observed during reconnaissance after the 2014 South Napa Earthquake, and included damage to wine storage and fermentation tanks, collapse of wine storage barrel racks, unreinforced masonry building partial or full collapse, and residential building damage. This type of damage is not unique to the South Napa Earthquake, and was observed after other earthquakes such as the 1977 San Juan Earthquake, and the 2010 Maule Earthquake. Previous research and earthquakes have demon...

  19. Encyclopedia of earthquake engineering

    CERN Document Server

    Kougioumtzoglou, Ioannis; Patelli, Edoardo; Au, Siu-Kui

    2015-01-01

    The Encyclopedia of Earthquake Engineering is designed to be the authoritative and comprehensive reference covering all major aspects of the science of earthquake engineering, specifically focusing on the interaction between earthquakes and infrastructure. The encyclopedia comprises approximately 265 contributions. Since earthquake engineering deals with the interaction between earthquake disturbances and the built infrastructure, the emphasis is on basic design processes important to both non-specialists and engineers so that readers become suitably well-informed without needing to deal with the details of specialist understanding. The content of this encyclopedia provides technically inclined and informed readers about the ways in which earthquakes can affect our infrastructure and how engineers would go about designing against, mitigating and remediating these effects. The coverage ranges from buildings, foundations, underground construction, lifelines and bridges, roads, embankments and slopes. The encycl...

  20. The 2008 Wenchuan Earthquake and the Rise and Fall of Earthquake Prediction in China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Q.; Wang, K.

    2009-12-01

    Regardless of the future potential of earthquake prediction, it is presently impractical to rely on it to mitigate earthquake disasters. The practical approach is to strengthen the resilience of our built environment to earthquakes based on hazard assessment. But this was not common understanding in China when the M 7.9 Wenchuan earthquake struck the Sichuan Province on 12 May 2008, claiming over 80,000 lives. In China, earthquake prediction is a government-sanctioned and law-regulated measure of disaster prevention. A sudden boom of the earthquake prediction program in 1966-1976 coincided with a succession of nine M > 7 damaging earthquakes in the densely populated region of the country and the political chaos of the Cultural Revolution. It climaxed with the prediction of the 1975 Haicheng earthquake, which was due mainly to an unusually pronounced foreshock sequence and the extraordinary readiness of some local officials to issue imminent warning and evacuation order. The Haicheng prediction was a success in practice and yielded useful lessons, but the experience cannot be applied to most other earthquakes and cultural environments. Since the disastrous Tangshan earthquake in 1976 that killed over 240,000 people, there have been two opposite trends in China: decreasing confidence in prediction and increasing emphasis on regulating construction design for earthquake resilience. In 1976, most of the seismic intensity XI areas of Tangshan were literally razed to the ground, but in 2008, many buildings in the intensity XI areas of Wenchuan did not collapse. Prediction did not save life in either of these events; the difference was made by construction standards. For regular buildings, there was no seismic design in Tangshan to resist any earthquake shaking in 1976, but limited seismic design was required for the Wenchuan area in 2008. Although the construction standards were later recognized to be too low, those buildings that met the standards suffered much less

  1. Earthquake at 40 feet

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miller, G. J.

    1976-01-01

    The earthquake that struck the island of Guam on November 1, 1975, at 11:17 a.m had many unique aspects-not the least of which was the experience of an earthquake of 6.25 Richter magnitude while at 40 feet. My wife Bonnie, a fellow diver, Greg Guzman, and I were diving at Gabgab Beach in teh outer harbor of Apra Harbor, engaged in underwater phoyography when the earthquake struck. 

  2. Active Vibration Control of Container Cranes against Earthquake by the Use of LMI Based Mixed H2/H∞ State-Feedback Controller

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. Oktay Azeloglu

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper studies the design of a linear matrix inequality (LMI based mixed H2/H∞ state-feedback controller for vibration attenuation problem of seismic-excited container cranes. In order to show effectiveness of the designed controller, a six-degree-of-freedom container crane structural system is modeled using a spring-mass-damper subsystem. The system is then simulated against the real ground motion of El Centro and Northridge earthquakes. Finally, the time history of the crane parts displacements, accelerations, control forces, and frequency responses of both uncontrolled and controlled cases are presented. Additionally, the performance of the designed controller is also compared with a nominal state-feedback H∞ controller performance. Simulations of the designed controller show better seismic performance than a nominal state-feedback H∞ controller. Simulation results show that the designed controller is all effective in reducing vibration amplitudes of crane parts.

  3. Application of Fuzzy Logic GIS to Modelling Coseismic Landslide Susceptibility in the Southern Alps, New Zealand, from a Potential Alpine Fault Earthquake

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robinson, T.; Davies, T. R.; Wilson, T. M.; Orchiston, C.; Kritikos, T.

    2014-12-01

    Recent earthquakes such as the 1999 Chi-Chi and 2008 Wenchuan events have demonstrated that the hazard from large earthquakes in mountains is not simply that of strong ground shaking. Coseismic landsliding can be as devastating as, or more devastating than, the initial earthquake. In mountainous areas with high seismic hazard, understanding the potential scale and spatial distribution of coseismic landsliding is therefore vital to fully describing the earthquake hazard. Currently however, estimating coseismic landslide susceptibility requires either: a substantially complete coseismic landslide inventory from an historic event in the region; densely spaced, detailed geotechnical data; expert knowledge; or some combination of these. In regions where these are not available, estimating the extent of coseismic landsliding is not currently possible. This study uses statistical analysis of substantially complete coseismic landslide inventories from Northridge, CA and Wenchuan, China to identify common regional factors which appear to control the spatial distribution of landsliding in both locations. These factors were: shaking intensity (MMI), slope angle, distance to faults and streams, and slope position. Factors such as slope curvature, slope aspect, and elevation played no consistent role in the formation of landslides. Combining these observations with fuzzy logic in GIS we are able to successfully model landslide susceptibility for the 1999 Chi-Chi, Taiwan earthquake. This suggests that modelling susceptibility for a given earthquake scenario is possible, using observations of historic events in similar geotectonic environments. Applying the result to a potential M8 Alpine fault earthquake in New Zealand yields a susceptibility map for the entire South Island. High susceptibility is modelled across an area >50,000 km2, predominantly focussed on the western rangefront of the Southern Alps. Landsliding therefore has the potential to be widespread, presenting a range

  4. 1/f and the Earthquake Problem: Scaling constraints that facilitate operational earthquake forecasting

    Science.gov (United States)

    yoder, M. R.; Rundle, J. B.; Turcotte, D. L.

    2012-12-01

    The difficulty of forecasting earthquakes can fundamentally be attributed to the self-similar, or "1/f", nature of seismic sequences. Specifically, the rate of occurrence of earthquakes is inversely proportional to their magnitude m, or more accurately to their scalar moment M. With respect to this "1/f problem," it can be argued that catalog selection (or equivalently, determining catalog constraints) constitutes the most significant challenge to seismicity based earthquake forecasting. Here, we address and introduce a potential solution to this most daunting problem. Specifically, we introduce a framework to constrain, or partition, an earthquake catalog (a study region) in order to resolve local seismicity. In particular, we combine Gutenberg-Richter (GR), rupture length, and Omori scaling with various empirical measurements to relate the size (spatial and temporal extents) of a study area (or bins within a study area) to the local earthquake magnitude potential - the magnitude of earthquake the region is expected to experience. From this, we introduce a new type of time dependent hazard map for which the tuning parameter space is nearly fully constrained. In a similar fashion, by combining various scaling relations and also by incorporating finite extents (rupture length, area, and duration) as constraints, we develop a method to estimate the Omori (temporal) and spatial aftershock decay parameters as a function of the parent earthquake's magnitude m. From this formulation, we develop an ETAS type model that overcomes many point-source limitations of contemporary ETAS. These models demonstrate promise with respect to earthquake forecasting applications. Moreover, the methods employed suggest a general framework whereby earthquake and other complex-system, 1/f type, problems can be constrained from scaling relations and finite extents.; Record-breaking hazard map of southern California, 2012-08-06. "Warm" colors indicate local acceleration (elevated hazard

  5. The Manchester earthquake swarm of October 2002

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baptie, B.; Ottemoeller, L.

    2003-04-01

    An earthquake sequence started in the Greater Manchester area of the United Kingdom on October 19, 2002. This has continued to the time of writing and has consisted of more than 100 discrete earthquakes. Three temporary seismograph stations were installed to supplement existing permanent stations and to better understand the relationship between the seismicity and local geology. Due to the urban location, these were experienced by a large number of people. The largest event on October 21 had a magnitude ML 3.9. The activity appears to be an earthquake swarm, since there is no clear distinction between a main shock and aftershocks. However, most of the energy during the sequence was actually released in two earthquakes separated by a few seconds in time, on October 21 at 11:42. Other examples of swarm activity in the UK include Comrie (1788-1801, 1839-46), Glenalmond (1970-72), Doune (1997) and Blackford (1997-98, 2000-01) in central Scotland, Constantine (1981, 1986, 1992-4) in Cornwall, and Johnstonbridge (mid1980s) and Dumfries (1991,1999). The clustering of these events in time and space does suggest that there is a causal relationship between the events of the sequence. Joint hypocenter determination was used to simultaneously locate the swarm earthquakes, determine station corrections and improve the relative locations. It seems likely that all events in the sequence originate from a relatively small source volume. This is supported by the similarities in source mechanism and waveform signals between the various events. Focal depths were found to be very shallow and of the order of about 2-3 km. Source mechanisms determined for the largest of the events show strike-slip solutions along either northeast-southwest or northwest-southeast striking fault planes. The surface expression of faults in the epicentral area is generally northwest-southeast, suggesting that this is the more likely fault plane.

  6. Fixed recurrence and slip models better predict earthquake behavior than the time- and slip-predictable models 1: repeating earthquakes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rubinstein, Justin L.; Ellsworth, William L.; Chen, Kate Huihsuan; Uchida, Naoki

    2012-01-01

    The behavior of individual events in repeating earthquake sequences in California, Taiwan and Japan is better predicted by a model with fixed inter-event time or fixed slip than it is by the time- and slip-predictable models for earthquake occurrence. Given that repeating earthquakes are highly regular in both inter-event time and seismic moment, the time- and slip-predictable models seem ideally suited to explain their behavior. Taken together with evidence from the companion manuscript that shows similar results for laboratory experiments we conclude that the short-term predictions of the time- and slip-predictable models should be rejected in favor of earthquake models that assume either fixed slip or fixed recurrence interval. This implies that the elastic rebound model underlying the time- and slip-predictable models offers no additional value in describing earthquake behavior in an event-to-event sense, but its value in a long-term sense cannot be determined. These models likely fail because they rely on assumptions that oversimplify the earthquake cycle. We note that the time and slip of these events is predicted quite well by fixed slip and fixed recurrence models, so in some sense they are time- and slip-predictable. While fixed recurrence and slip models better predict repeating earthquake behavior than the time- and slip-predictable models, we observe a correlation between slip and the preceding recurrence time for many repeating earthquake sequences in Parkfield, California. This correlation is not found in other regions, and the sequences with the correlative slip-predictable behavior are not distinguishable from nearby earthquake sequences that do not exhibit this behavior.

  7. Comparative Study on Code-based Linear Evaluation of an Existing RC Building Damaged during 1998 Adana-Ceyhan Earthquake

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Toprak, A. Emre; Guelay, F. Guelten; Ruge, Peter

    2008-01-01

    Determination of seismic performance of existing buildings has become one of the key concepts in structural analysis topics after recent earthquakes (i.e. Izmit and Duzce Earthquakes in 1999, Kobe Earthquake in 1995 and Northridge Earthquake in 1994). Considering the need for precise assessment tools to determine seismic performance level, most of earthquake hazardous countries try to include performance based assessment in their seismic codes. Recently, Turkish Earthquake Code 2007 (TEC'07), which was put into effect in March 2007, also introduced linear and non-linear assessment procedures to be applied prior to building retrofitting. In this paper, a comparative study is performed on the code-based seismic assessment of RC buildings with linear static methods of analysis, selecting an existing RC building. The basic principles dealing the procedure of seismic performance evaluations for existing RC buildings according to Eurocode 8 and TEC'07 will be outlined and compared. Then the procedure is applied to a real case study building is selected which is exposed to 1998 Adana-Ceyhan Earthquake in Turkey, the seismic action of Ms = 6.3 with a maximum ground acceleration of 0.28 g It is a six-storey RC residential building with a total of 14.65 m height, composed of orthogonal frames, symmetrical in y direction and it does not have any significant structural irregularities. The rectangular shaped planar dimensions are 16.40 mx7.80 m = 127.90 m 2 with five spans in x and two spans in y directions. It was reported that the building had been moderately damaged during the 1998 earthquake and retrofitting process was suggested by the authorities with adding shear-walls to the system. The computations show that the performing methods of analysis with linear approaches using either Eurocode 8 or TEC'07 independently produce similar performance levels of collapse for the critical storey of the structure. The computed base shear value according to Eurocode is much higher

  8. Earthquakes and Schools

    Science.gov (United States)

    National Clearinghouse for Educational Facilities, 2008

    2008-01-01

    Earthquakes are low-probability, high-consequence events. Though they may occur only once in the life of a school, they can have devastating, irreversible consequences. Moderate earthquakes can cause serious damage to building contents and non-structural building systems, serious injury to students and staff, and disruption of building operations.…

  9. The Antiquity of Earthquakes

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Department of Earth. Sciences, University of. Roorkee. Her interest is in computer based solutions to geophysical and other earth science problems. If we adopt the definition that an earthquake is shaking of the earth due to natural causes, then we may argue that earthquakes have been occurring since the very beginning.

  10. Bam Earthquake in Iran

    CERN Document Server

    2004-01-01

    Following their request for help from members of international organisations, the permanent Mission of the Islamic Republic of Iran has given the following bank account number, where you can donate money to help the victims of the Bam earthquake. Re: Bam earthquake 235 - UBS 311264.35L Bubenberg Platz 3001 BERN

  11. Tradable Earthquake Certificates

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Woerdman, Edwin; Dulleman, Minne

    2018-01-01

    This article presents a market-based idea to compensate for earthquake damage caused by the extraction of natural gas and applies it to the case of Groningen in the Netherlands. Earthquake certificates give homeowners a right to yearly compensation for both property damage and degradation of living

  12. The Antiquity of Earthquakes

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    there are few estimates about this earthquake as it probably occurred in that early period of the earth's history about which astronomers, physicists, chemists and earth scientists are still sorting out their ideas. Yet, the notion of the earliest earthquake excites interest. We explore this theme here partly also because.

  13. Roaming earthquakes in China highlight midcontinental hazards

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Mian; Wang, Hui

    2012-11-01

    Before dawn on 28 July 1976, a magnitude (M) 7.8 earthquake struck Tangshan, a Chinese industrial city only 150 kilometers from Beijing (Figure 1a). In a brief moment, the earthquake destroyed the entire city and killed more than 242,000 people [Chen et al., 1988]. More than 30 years have passed, and upon the ruins a new Tangshan city has been built. However, the memory of devastation remains fresh. For this reason, a sequence of recent small earthquakes in the Tangshan region, including an M 4.8 event on 28 May and an M 4.0 event on 18 June 2012, has caused widespread concerns and heated debate in China. In the science community, the debate is whether the recent Tangshan earthquakes are the aftershocks of the 1976 earthquake despite the long gap in time since the main shock or harbingers of a new period of active seismicity in Tangshan and the rest of North China, where seismic activity seems to fluctuate between highs and lows over periods of a few decades [Ma, 1989].

  14. Historic Eastern Canadian earthquakes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Asmis, G.J.K.; Atchinson, R.J.

    1981-01-01

    Nuclear power plants licensed in Canada have been designed to resist earthquakes: not all plants, however, have been explicitly designed to the same level of earthquake induced forces. Understanding the nature of strong ground motion near the source of the earthquake is still very tentative. This paper reviews historical and scientific accounts of the three strongest earthquakes - St. Lawrence (1925), Temiskaming (1935), Cornwall (1944) - that have occurred in Canada in 'modern' times, field studies of near-field strong ground motion records and their resultant damage or non-damage to industrial facilities, and numerical modelling of earthquake sources and resultant wave propagation to produce accelerograms consistent with the above historical record and field studies. It is concluded that for future construction of NPP's near-field strong motion must be explicitly considered in design

  15. Wideband simulation of earthquake ground motion by a spectrum-matching, multiple-pulse technique

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gusev, A.; Pavlov, V.

    2006-04-01

    To simulate earthquake ground motion, we combine a multiple-point stochastic earthquake fault model and a suite of Green functions. Conceptually, our source model generalizes the classic one of Haskell (1966). At any time instant, slip occurs over a narrow strip that sweeps the fault area at a (spatially variable) velocity. This behavior defines seismic signals at lower frequencies (LF), and describes directivity effects. High-frequency (HF) behavior of source signal is defined by local slip history, assumed to be a short segment of pulsed noise. For calculations, this model is discretized as a grid of point subsources. Subsource moment rate time histories, in their LF part, are smooth pulses whose duration equals to the rise time. In their HF part, they are segments of non-Gaussian noise of similar duration. The spectral content of subsource time histories is adjusted so that the summary far-field signal follows certain predetermined spectral scaling law. The results of simulation depend on random seeds, and on particular values of such parameters as: stress drop; average and dispersion parameter for rupture velocity; rupture nucleation point; slip zone width/rise time, wavenumber-spectrum parameter defining final slip function; the degrees of non-Gaussianity for random slip rate in time, and for random final slip in space, and more. To calculate ground motion at a site, Green functions are calculated for each subsource-site pair, then convolved with subsource time functions and at last summed over subsources. The original Green function calculator for layered weakly inelastic medium is of discrete wavenumber kind, with no intrinsic limitations with respect to layer thickness or bandwidth. The simulation package can generate example motions, or used to study uncertainties of the predicted motion. As a test, realistic analogues of recorded motions in the epicentral zone of the 1994 Northridge, California earthquake were synthesized, and related uncertainties were

  16. Implication of conjugate faulting in the earthquake brewing and originating process

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jones, L.M. (Massachusetts Inst. of Tech., Cambridge); Deng, Q.; Jiang, P.

    1980-03-01

    The earthquake sequence, precursory and geologo-structural background of the Haicheng, Tangshan, Songpan-Pingwu earthquakes are discussed in this article. All of these earthquakes occurred in a seismic zone controlled by the main boundary faults of an intraplate fault block. However, the fault plane of a main earthquake does not consist of the same faults, but is rather a related secondary fault. They formed altogether a conjugate shearing rupture zone under the action of a regional tectonic stress field. As to the earthquake sequence, the foreshocks and aftershocks might occur on the conjugate fault planes within an epicentral region rather than be limited to the fault plane of a main earthquake, such as the distribution of foreshocks and aftershocks of the Haicheng earthquake. The characteristics of the long-, medium-, and imminent-term earthquake precursory anomalies of the three mentioned earthquakes, especially the character of well-studies anomaly phenomena in electrical resistivity, radon emission, groundwater and animal behavior, have been investigated. The studies of these earthquake precursors show that they were distributed in an area rather more extensive than the epicentral region. Some fault zones in the conjugate fault network usually appeared as distributed belts or concentrated zones of earthquake precursory anomalies, and can be traced in the medium-long term precursory field, but seem more distinct in the short-imminent term precursory anomalous field. These characteristics can be explained by the rupture and sliding originating along the conjugate shear network and the concentration of stress in the regional stress field.

  17. The 2016 Kumamoto, Japan, earthquakes and lessons learned for large earthquakes in urban areas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hirata, Naoshi; Kato, Aitaro; Nakamura, Kouji; Hiyama, Yohei

    2017-04-01

    A series of devastating earthquakes hit the Kumamoto districts in Kyushu, Japan, in April 2016. A M6.5 event occurred at 21:26 on April 14th (JST) and, 28 hours later, a M7.3 event occurred at 01:25 on April 17th (JST) at almost the same location at a depth of 10 km. Both earthquakes were felt at the town of Mashiki with a seismic intensity of 7 according to the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) scale. The intensity of 7 is the highest level in the JMA scale. Very strong accelerations were observed by the M6.5 event with 1,580 gal at KiKnet Mashiki station and 1,791 gal for the M7.3 event at Ohtsu City station. As a result, more than 8,000 houses totally collapsed, 26,000 were heavily damaged, and 120,000 were partially damaged. More than 170 people were killed by the two earthquakes. The important lesson from the Kumamoto earthquake is that very strong ground motions may hit within a few days after a first large event. This can have serious impacts to houses already damaged by the first large earthquake. In the 2016 Kumamoto sequence, there were also many strong aftershocks including M5.8-5.9 events until April 18th. More than 180,000 people had to take shelter because of ongoing strong aftershocks. We discuss both the natural and human aspects of the Kumamoto earthquake disaster caused by inland shallow large earthquakes. We will report on the lessons learned for large earthquakes hitting the metropolitan area of Tokyo, Japan.

  18. Earthquakes, November-December 1977

    Science.gov (United States)

    Person, W.J.

    1978-01-01

    Two major earthquakes occurred in the last 2 months of the year. A magnitude 7.0 earthquake struck San Juan Province, Argentina, on November 23, causing fatalities and damage. The second major earthquake was a magnitude 7.0 in the Bonin Islands region, an unpopulated area. On December 19, Iran experienced a destructive earthquake, which killed over 500.

  19. 2014 mainshock-aftershock activity versus earthquake swarms in West\

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Jakoubková, Hana; Horálek, Josef; Fischer, T.

    2018-01-01

    Roč. 175, č. 1 (2018), s. 109-131 ISSN 0033-4553 R&D Projects: GA ČR GAP210/12/2336; GA MŠk(CZ) LM2015079 Institutional support: RVO:67985530 Keywords : West Bohemia/Vogtland * earthquake swarm s * mainshock-aftershock sequence * total seismic moment * statistical characteristics of earthquake activities Subject RIV: DC - Siesmology, Volcanology, Earth Structure Impact factor: 1.591, year: 2016

  20. The Challenge of Centennial Earthquakes to Improve Modern Earthquake Engineering

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Saragoni, G. Rodolfo

    2008-01-01

    The recent commemoration of the centennial of the San Francisco and Valparaiso 1906 earthquakes has given the opportunity to reanalyze their damages from modern earthquake engineering perspective. These two earthquakes plus Messina Reggio Calabria 1908 had a strong impact in the birth and developing of earthquake engineering. The study of the seismic performance of some up today existing buildings, that survive centennial earthquakes, represent a challenge to better understand the limitations of our in use earthquake design methods. Only Valparaiso 1906 earthquake, of the three considered centennial earthquakes, has been repeated again as the Central Chile, 1985, Ms = 7.8 earthquake. In this paper a comparative study of the damage produced by 1906 and 1985 Valparaiso earthquakes is done in the neighborhood of Valparaiso harbor. In this study the only three centennial buildings of 3 stories that survived both earthquakes almost undamaged were identified. Since for 1985 earthquake accelerogram at El Almendral soil conditions as well as in rock were recoded, the vulnerability analysis of these building is done considering instrumental measurements of the demand. The study concludes that good performance of these buildings in the epicentral zone of large earthquakes can not be well explained by modern earthquake engineering methods. Therefore, it is recommended to use in the future of more suitable instrumental parameters, such as the destructiveness potential factor, to describe earthquake demand

  1. Earthquake hazard assessment and small earthquakes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Reiter, L.

    1987-01-01

    The significance of small earthquakes and their treatment in nuclear power plant seismic hazard assessment is an issue which has received increased attention over the past few years. In probabilistic studies, sensitivity studies showed that the choice of the lower bound magnitude used in hazard calculations can have a larger than expected effect on the calculated hazard. Of particular interest is the fact that some of the difference in seismic hazard calculations between the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) and Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI) studies can be attributed to this choice. The LLNL study assumed a lower bound magnitude of 3.75 while the EPRI study assumed a lower bound magnitude of 5.0. The magnitudes used were assumed to be body wave magnitudes or their equivalents. In deterministic studies recent ground motion recordings of small to moderate earthquakes at or near nuclear power plants have shown that the high frequencies of design response spectra may be exceeded. These exceedances became important issues in the licensing of the Summer and Perry nuclear power plants. At various times in the past particular concerns have been raised with respect to the hazard and damage potential of small to moderate earthquakes occurring at very shallow depths. In this paper a closer look is taken at these issues. Emphasis is given to the impact of lower bound magnitude on probabilistic hazard calculations and the historical record of damage from small to moderate earthquakes. Limited recommendations are made as to how these issues should be viewed

  2. Earthquakes and emergence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Earthquakes and emerging infections may not have a direct cause and effect relationship like tax evasion and jail, but new evidence suggests that there may be a link between the two human health hazards. Various media accounts have cited a massive 1993 earthquake in Maharashtra as a potential catalyst of the recent outbreak of plague in India that has claimed more than 50 lives and alarmed the world. The hypothesis is that the earthquake may have uprooted underground rat populations that carry the fleas infected with the bacterium that causes bubonic plague and can lead to the pneumonic form of the disease that is spread through the air.

  3. Testing for the ‘predictability’ of dynamically triggered earthquakes in Geysers Geothermal Field

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aiken, Chastity; Meng, Xiaofeng; Hardebeck, Jeanne L.

    2018-01-01

    The Geysers geothermal field is well known for being susceptible to dynamic triggering of earthquakes by large distant earthquakes, owing to the introduction of fluids for energy production. Yet, it is unknown if dynamic triggering of earthquakes is ‘predictable’ or whether dynamic triggering could lead to a potential hazard for energy production. In this paper, our goal is to investigate the characteristics of triggering and the physical conditions that promote triggering to determine whether or not triggering is in anyway foreseeable. We find that, at present, triggering in The Geysers is not easily ‘predictable’ in terms of when and where based on observable physical conditions. However, triggered earthquake magnitude positively correlates with peak imparted dynamic stress, and larger dynamic stresses tend to trigger sequences similar to mainshock–aftershock sequences. Thus, we may be able to ‘predict’ what size earthquakes to expect at The Geysers following a large distant earthquake.

  4. Testing for the 'predictability' of dynamically triggered earthquakes in The Geysers geothermal field

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aiken, Chastity; Meng, Xiaofeng; Hardebeck, Jeanne

    2018-03-01

    The Geysers geothermal field is well known for being susceptible to dynamic triggering of earthquakes by large distant earthquakes, owing to the introduction of fluids for energy production. Yet, it is unknown if dynamic triggering of earthquakes is 'predictable' or whether dynamic triggering could lead to a potential hazard for energy production. In this paper, our goal is to investigate the characteristics of triggering and the physical conditions that promote triggering to determine whether or not triggering is in anyway foreseeable. We find that, at present, triggering in The Geysers is not easily 'predictable' in terms of when and where based on observable physical conditions. However, triggered earthquake magnitude positively correlates with peak imparted dynamic stress, and larger dynamic stresses tend to trigger sequences similar to mainshock-aftershock sequences. Thus, we may be able to 'predict' what size earthquakes to expect at The Geysers following a large distant earthquake.

  5. Earthquake Ground Motion Selection

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-05-01

    Nonlinear analyses of soils, structures, and soil-structure systems offer the potential for more accurate characterization of geotechnical and structural response under strong earthquake shaking. The increasing use of advanced performance-based desig...

  6. 1988 Spitak Earthquake Database

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The 1988 Spitak Earthquake database is an extensive collection of geophysical and geological data, maps, charts, images and descriptive text pertaining to the...

  7. Earthquake education in California

    Science.gov (United States)

    MacCabe, M. P.

    1980-01-01

    In a survey of community response to the earthquake threat in southern California, Ralph Turner and his colleagues in the Department of Sociology at the University of California, Los Angeles, found that the public very definitely wants to be educated about the kinds of problems and hazards they can expect during and after a damaging earthquake; and they also want to know how they can prepare themselves to minimize their vulnerability. Decisionmakers, too, are recognizing this new wave of public concern. 

  8. Electromagnetic Manifestation of Earthquakes

    OpenAIRE

    Uvarov Vladimir

    2017-01-01

    In a joint analysis of the results of recording the electrical component of the natural electromagnetic field of the Earth and the catalog of earthquakes in Kamchatka in 2013, unipolar pulses of constant amplitude associated with earthquakes were identified, whose activity is closely correlated with the energy of the electromagnetic field. For the explanation, a hypothesis about the cooperative character of these impulses is proposed.

  9. Electromagnetic Manifestation of Earthquakes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Uvarov Vladimir

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available In a joint analysis of the results of recording the electrical component of the natural electromagnetic field of the Earth and the catalog of earthquakes in Kamchatka in 2013, unipolar pulses of constant amplitude associated with earthquakes were identified, whose activity is closely correlated with the energy of the electromagnetic field. For the explanation, a hypothesis about the cooperative character of these impulses is proposed.

  10. 2014 Earthquake Swarm in Northwest Brooks Range, Alaska

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ruppert, N. A.; Holtkamp, S. G.

    2014-12-01

    An unusual sequence of earthquakes in NW Brooks Range region of Alaska began with two magnitude 5.7 earthquakes within minutes of each other on April 18, 2014. These events were followed by a vigorous aftershock sequence with many aftershocks reaching magnitude 4 and higher. Later, three more magnitude 5.7 earthquakes occurred in the same source region on May 3, June 7 and June 16. Earthquake source mechanisms indicate normal faulting on SE-NW striking fault planes. The source region is located ~20 km NE of the Noatak village and ~40 km S of the Red Dog Mine. A magnitude 5.5 occurred in this area in 1981. The 1981 sequence also exhibited a swarm-like behavior over the course of 6 months. Detection and reporting of these earthquakes is complicated by sparseness of seismic network in NW Alaska. At the time of April 18 earthquake the nearest seismic site was located at the Red Dog Mine, with the next nearest station 350 km away. Following the May 3 event, the Alaska Earthquake Center installed two additional temporary stations, one in Noatak and another in Kotzebue, 85 km S of the source area. Overall, 450 events were reported in this sequence through end of July. The catalog magnitude of completeness with the additional stations was about ~2.2. We applied waveform template matching algorithm to detect additional events in this sequence that could not be detected with the standard network processing. The template matching resulted in ~600 additional event detections. The waveform cross-correlation indicates that most of the events are not repeating sources. From the catalogued events, only 6% of event pairs have correlation coefficients of 0.75 or higher. We were able to identify only a few families of repeating events. Only one family seemed to be present throughout the entire sequence, while other event families were mostly short-lived. We find preliminary evidence that the earthquakes migrated to shallower depths throughout the sequence, consistent with the

  11. Injection-induced earthquakes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ellsworth, William L

    2013-07-12

    Earthquakes in unusual locations have become an important topic of discussion in both North America and Europe, owing to the concern that industrial activity could cause damaging earthquakes. It has long been understood that earthquakes can be induced by impoundment of reservoirs, surface and underground mining, withdrawal of fluids and gas from the subsurface, and injection of fluids into underground formations. Injection-induced earthquakes have, in particular, become a focus of discussion as the application of hydraulic fracturing to tight shale formations is enabling the production of oil and gas from previously unproductive formations. Earthquakes can be induced as part of the process to stimulate the production from tight shale formations, or by disposal of wastewater associated with stimulation and production. Here, I review recent seismic activity that may be associated with industrial activity, with a focus on the disposal of wastewater by injection in deep wells; assess the scientific understanding of induced earthquakes; and discuss the key scientific challenges to be met for assessing this hazard.

  12. Model and parametric uncertainty in source-based kinematic models of earthquake ground motion

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hartzell, Stephen; Frankel, Arthur; Liu, Pengcheng; Zeng, Yuehua; Rahman, Shariftur

    2011-01-01

    Four independent ground-motion simulation codes are used to model the strong ground motion for three earthquakes: 1994 Mw 6.7 Northridge, 1989 Mw 6.9 Loma Prieta, and 1999 Mw 7.5 Izmit. These 12 sets of synthetics are used to make estimates of the variability in ground-motion predictions. In addition, ground-motion predictions over a grid of sites are used to estimate parametric uncertainty for changes in rupture velocity. We find that the combined model uncertainty and random variability of the simulations is in the same range as the variability of regional empirical ground-motion data sets. The majority of the standard deviations lie between 0.5 and 0.7 natural-log units for response spectra and 0.5 and 0.8 for Fourier spectra. The estimate of model epistemic uncertainty, based on the different model predictions, lies between 0.2 and 0.4, which is about one-half of the estimates for the standard deviation of the combined model uncertainty and random variability. Parametric uncertainty, based on variation of just the average rupture velocity, is shown to be consistent in amplitude with previous estimates, showing percentage changes in ground motion from 50% to 300% when rupture velocity changes from 2.5 to 2.9 km/s. In addition, there is some evidence that mean biases can be reduced by averaging ground-motion estimates from different methods.

  13. Listening to the 2011 magnitude 9.0 Tohoku-Oki, Japan, earthquake

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peng, Zhigang; Aiken, Chastity; Kilb, Debi; Shelly, David R.; Enescu, Bogdan

    2012-01-01

    The magnitude 9.0 Tohoku-Oki, Japan, earthquake on 11 March 2011 is the largest earthquake to date in Japan’s modern history and is ranked as the fourth largest earthquake in the world since 1900. This earthquake occurred within the northeast Japan subduction zone (Figure 1), where the Pacific plate is subducting beneath the Okhotsk plate at rate of ∼8–9 cm/yr (DeMets et al. 2010). This type of extremely large earthquake within a subduction zone is generally termed a “megathrust” earthquake. Strong shaking from this magnitude 9 earthquake engulfed the entire Japanese Islands, reaching a maximum acceleration ∼3 times that of gravity (3 g). Two days prior to the main event, a foreshock sequence occurred, including one earthquake of magnitude 7.2. Following the main event, numerous aftershocks occurred around the main slip region; the largest of these was magnitude 7.9. The entire foreshocks-mainshock-aftershocks sequence was well recorded by thousands of sensitive seismometers and geodetic instruments across Japan, resulting in the best-recorded megathrust earthquake in history. This devastating earthquake resulted in significant damage and high death tolls caused primarily by the associated large tsunami. This tsunami reached heights of more than 30 m, and inundation propagated inland more than 5 km from the Pacific coast, which also caused a nuclear crisis that is still affecting people’s lives in certain regions of Japan.

  14. Charles Darwin's earthquake reports

    Science.gov (United States)

    Galiev, Shamil

    2010-05-01

    As it is the 200th anniversary of Darwin's birth, 2009 has also been marked as 170 years since the publication of his book Journal of Researches. During the voyage Darwin landed at Valdivia and Concepcion, Chile, just before, during, and after a great earthquake, which demolished hundreds of buildings, killing and injuring many people. Land was waved, lifted, and cracked, volcanoes awoke and giant ocean waves attacked the coast. Darwin was the first geologist to observe and describe the effects of the great earthquake during and immediately after. These effects sometimes repeated during severe earthquakes; but great earthquakes, like Chile 1835, and giant earthquakes, like Chile 1960, are rare and remain completely unpredictable. This is one of the few areas of science, where experts remain largely in the dark. Darwin suggested that the effects were a result of ‘ …the rending of strata, at a point not very deep below the surface of the earth…' and ‘…when the crust yields to the tension, caused by its gradual elevation, there is a jar at the moment of rupture, and a greater movement...'. Darwin formulated big ideas about the earth evolution and its dynamics. These ideas set the tone for the tectonic plate theory to come. However, the plate tectonics does not completely explain why earthquakes occur within plates. Darwin emphasised that there are different kinds of earthquakes ‘...I confine the foregoing observations to the earthquakes on the coast of South America, or to similar ones, which seem generally to have been accompanied by elevation of the land. But, as we know that subsidence has gone on in other quarters of the world, fissures must there have been formed, and therefore earthquakes...' (we cite the Darwin's sentences following researchspace. auckland. ac. nz/handle/2292/4474). These thoughts agree with results of the last publications (see Nature 461, 870-872; 636-639 and 462, 42-43; 87-89). About 200 years ago Darwin gave oneself airs by the

  15. Earthquake simulations with time-dependent nucleation and long-range interactions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. H. Dieterich

    1995-01-01

    Full Text Available A model for rapid simulation of earthquake sequences is introduced which incorporates long-range elastic interactions among fault elements and time-dependent earthquake nucleation inferred from experimentally derived rate- and state-dependent fault constitutive properties. The model consists of a planar two-dimensional fault surface which is periodic in both the x- and y-directions. Elastic interactions among fault elements are represented by an array of elastic dislocations. Approximate solutions for earthquake nucleation and dynamics of earthquake slip are introduced which permit computations to proceed in steps that are determined by the transitions from one sliding state to the next. The transition-driven time stepping and avoidance of systems of simultaneous equations permit rapid simulation of large sequences of earthquake events on computers of modest capacity, while preserving characteristics of the nucleation and rupture propagation processes evident in more detailed models. Earthquakes simulated with this model reproduce many of the observed spatial and temporal characteristics of clustering phenomena including foreshock and aftershock sequences. Clustering arises because the time dependence of the nucleation process is highly sensitive to stress perturbations caused by nearby earthquakes. Rate of earthquake activity following a prior earthquake decays according to Omori's aftershock decay law and falls off with distance.

  16. Nowcasting Earthquakes and Tsunamis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rundle, J. B.; Turcotte, D. L.

    2017-12-01

    The term "nowcasting" refers to the estimation of the current uncertain state of a dynamical system, whereas "forecasting" is a calculation of probabilities of future state(s). Nowcasting is a term that originated in economics and finance, referring to the process of determining the uncertain state of the economy or market indicators such as GDP at the current time by indirect means. We have applied this idea to seismically active regions, where the goal is to determine the current state of a system of faults, and its current level of progress through the earthquake cycle (http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2016EA000185/full). Advantages of our nowcasting method over forecasting models include: 1) Nowcasting is simply data analysis and does not involve a model having parameters that must be fit to data; 2) We use only earthquake catalog data which generally has known errors and characteristics; and 3) We use area-based analysis rather than fault-based analysis, meaning that the methods work equally well on land and in subduction zones. To use the nowcast method to estimate how far the fault system has progressed through the "cycle" of large recurring earthquakes, we use the global catalog of earthquakes, using "small" earthquakes to determine the level of hazard from "large" earthquakes in the region. We select a "small" region in which the nowcast is to be made, and compute the statistics of a much larger region around the small region. The statistics of the large region are then applied to the small region. For an application, we can define a small region around major global cities, for example a "small" circle of radius 150 km and a depth of 100 km, as well as a "large" earthquake magnitude, for example M6.0. The region of influence of such earthquakes is roughly 150 km radius x 100 km depth, which is the reason these values were selected. We can then compute and rank the seismic risk of the world's major cities in terms of their relative seismic risk

  17. Post-earthquake building safety inspection: Lessons from the Canterbury, New Zealand, earthquakes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marshall, J.; Jaiswal, Kishor; Gould, N.; Turner, F.; Lizundia, B.; Barnes, J.

    2013-01-01

    The authors discuss some of the unique aspects and lessons of the New Zealand post-earthquake building safety inspection program that was implemented following the Canterbury earthquake sequence of 2010–2011. The post-event safety assessment program was one of the largest and longest programs undertaken in recent times anywhere in the world. The effort engaged hundreds of engineering professionals throughout the country, and also sought expertise from outside, to perform post-earthquake structural safety inspections of more than 100,000 buildings in the city of Christchurch and the surrounding suburbs. While the building safety inspection procedure implemented was analogous to the ATC 20 program in the United States, many modifications were proposed and implemented in order to assess the large number of buildings that were subjected to strong and variable shaking during a period of two years. This note discusses some of the key aspects of the post-earthquake building safety inspection program and summarizes important lessons that can improve future earthquake response.

  18. Identification of seismic precursors before large earthquakes: Decelerating and accelerating seismic patterns

    Science.gov (United States)

    Papadimitriou, Panayotis

    2008-04-01

    A useful way of understanding both seismotectonic processes and earthquake prediction research is to conceive seismic patterns as a function of space and time. The present work investigates seismic precursors before the occurrence of an earthquake. It does so by means of a methodology designed to study spatiotemporal characteristics of seismicity in a selected area. This methodology is based on two phenomena: the decelerating moment release (DMR) and the accelerating moment release (AMR), as they occur within a period ranging from several months to a few years before the oncoming event. The combination of these two seismic sequences leads to the proposed decelerating-accelerating moment release (DAMR) earthquake sequence, which appears as the last stage of loading in the earthquake cycle. This seismic activity appears as a foreshock sequence and can be supported by the stress accumulation model (SAM). The DAMR earthquake sequence constitutes a double seismic precursor identified in space and time before the occurrence of an earthquake and can be used to improve seismic hazard assessment research. In this study, the developed methodology is applied to the data of the 1989 Loma Prieta (California), the 1995 Kobe (Japan), and the 2003 Lefkada (Greece) earthquakes. The last part of this study focuses on the application of the methodology to the Ionian Sea (western Greece) and forecasts two earthquakes in that area.

  19. Indoor radon and earthquake

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Saghatelyan, E.; Petrosyan, L.; Aghbalyan, Yu.; Baburyan, M.; Araratyan, L.

    2004-01-01

    For the first time on the basis of the Spitak earthquake of December 1988 (Armenia, December 1988) experience it is found out that the earthquake causes intensive and prolonged radon splashes which, rapidly dispersing in the open space of close-to-earth atmosphere, are contrastingly displayed in covered premises (dwellings, schools, kindergartens) even if they are at considerable distance from the earthquake epicenter, and this multiplies the radiation influence on the population. The interval of splashes includes the period from the first fore-shock to the last after-shock, i.e. several months. The area affected by radiation is larger vs. Armenia's territory. The scale of this impact on population is 12 times higher than the number of people injured in Spitak, Leninakan and other settlements (toll of injured - 25 000 people, radiation-induced diseases in people - over 300 000). The influence of radiation directly correlates with the earthquake force. Such a conclusion is underpinned by indoor radon monitoring data for Yerevan since 1987 (120 km from epicenter) 5450 measurements and multivariate analysis with identification of cause-and-effect linkages between geo dynamics of indoor radon under stable and conditions of Earth crust, behavior of radon in different geological mediums during earthquakes, levels of room radon concentrations and effective equivalent dose of radiation impact of radiation dose on health and statistical data on public health provided by the Ministry of Health. The following hitherto unexplained facts can be considered as consequences of prolonged radiation influence on human organism: long-lasting state of apathy and indifference typical of the population of Armenia during the period of more than a year after the earthquake, prevalence of malignant cancer forms in disaster zones, dominating lung cancer and so on. All urban territories of seismically active regions are exposed to the threat of natural earthquake-provoked radiation influence

  20. Earthquake impact scale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wald, D.J.; Jaiswal, K.S.; Marano, K.D.; Bausch, D.

    2011-01-01

    With the advent of the USGS prompt assessment of global earthquakes for response (PAGER) system, which rapidly assesses earthquake impacts, U.S. and international earthquake responders are reconsidering their automatic alert and activation levels and response procedures. To help facilitate rapid and appropriate earthquake response, an Earthquake Impact Scale (EIS) is proposed on the basis of two complementary criteria. On the basis of the estimated cost of damage, one is most suitable for domestic events; the other, on the basis of estimated ranges of fatalities, is generally more appropriate for global events, particularly in developing countries. Simple thresholds, derived from the systematic analysis of past earthquake impact and associated response levels, are quite effective in communicating predicted impact and response needed after an event through alerts of green (little or no impact), yellow (regional impact and response), orange (national-scale impact and response), and red (international response). Corresponding fatality thresholds for yellow, orange, and red alert levels are 1, 100, and 1,000, respectively. For damage impact, yellow, orange, and red thresholds are triggered by estimated losses reaching $1M, $100M, and $1B, respectively. The rationale for a dual approach to earthquake alerting stems from the recognition that relatively high fatalities, injuries, and homelessness predominate in countries in which local building practices typically lend themselves to high collapse and casualty rates, and these impacts lend to prioritization for international response. In contrast, financial and overall societal impacts often trigger the level of response in regions or countries in which prevalent earthquake resistant construction practices greatly reduce building collapse and resulting fatalities. Any newly devised alert, whether economic- or casualty-based, should be intuitive and consistent with established lexicons and procedures. Useful alerts should

  1. Earthquake number forecasts testing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kagan, Yan Y.

    2017-10-01

    We study the distributions of earthquake numbers in two global earthquake catalogues: Global Centroid-Moment Tensor and Preliminary Determinations of Epicenters. The properties of these distributions are especially required to develop the number test for our forecasts of future seismic activity rate, tested by the Collaboratory for Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP). A common assumption, as used in the CSEP tests, is that the numbers are described by the Poisson distribution. It is clear, however, that the Poisson assumption for the earthquake number distribution is incorrect, especially for the catalogues with a lower magnitude threshold. In contrast to the one-parameter Poisson distribution so widely used to describe earthquake occurrences, the negative-binomial distribution (NBD) has two parameters. The second parameter can be used to characterize the clustering or overdispersion of a process. We also introduce and study a more complex three-parameter beta negative-binomial distribution. We investigate the dependence of parameters for both Poisson and NBD distributions on the catalogue magnitude threshold and on temporal subdivision of catalogue duration. First, we study whether the Poisson law can be statistically rejected for various catalogue subdivisions. We find that for most cases of interest, the Poisson distribution can be shown to be rejected statistically at a high significance level in favour of the NBD. Thereafter, we investigate whether these distributions fit the observed distributions of seismicity. For this purpose, we study upper statistical moments of earthquake numbers (skewness and kurtosis) and compare them to the theoretical values for both distributions. Empirical values for the skewness and the kurtosis increase for the smaller magnitude threshold and increase with even greater intensity for small temporal subdivision of catalogues. The Poisson distribution for large rate values approaches the Gaussian law, therefore its skewness

  2. Earthquakes and Earthquake Engineering. LC Science Tracer Bullet.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buydos, John F., Comp.

    An earthquake is a shaking of the ground resulting from a disturbance in the earth's interior. Seismology is the (1) study of earthquakes; (2) origin, propagation, and energy of seismic phenomena; (3) prediction of these phenomena; and (4) investigation of the structure of the earth. Earthquake engineering or engineering seismology includes the…

  3. Rupture, waves and earthquakes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Uenishi, Koji

    2017-01-01

    Normally, an earthquake is considered as a phenomenon of wave energy radiation by rupture (fracture) of solid Earth. However, the physics of dynamic process around seismic sources, which may play a crucial role in the occurrence of earthquakes and generation of strong waves, has not been fully understood yet. Instead, much of former investigation in seismology evaluated earthquake characteristics in terms of kinematics that does not directly treat such dynamic aspects and usually excludes the influence of high-frequency wave components over 1 Hz. There are countless valuable research outcomes obtained through this kinematics-based approach, but "extraordinary" phenomena that are difficult to be explained by this conventional description have been found, for instance, on the occasion of the 1995 Hyogo-ken Nanbu, Japan, earthquake, and more detailed study on rupture and wave dynamics, namely, possible mechanical characteristics of (1) rupture development around seismic sources, (2) earthquake-induced structural failures and (3) wave interaction that connects rupture (1) and failures (2), would be indispensable.

  4. Proceedings of the 11th United States-Japan natural resources panel for earthquake research, Napa Valley, California, November 16–18, 2016

    Science.gov (United States)

    Detweiler, Shane; Pollitz, Fred

    2017-10-18

    The UJNR Panel on Earthquake Research promotes advanced research toward a more fundamental understanding of the earthquake process and hazard estimation. The Eleventh Joint meeting was extremely beneficial in furthering cooperation and deepening understanding of problems common to both Japan and the United States.The meeting included productive exchanges of information on approaches to systematic observation and modeling of earthquake processes. Regarding the earthquake and tsunami of March 2011 off the Pacific coast of Tohoku and the 2016 Kumamoto earthquake sequence, the Panel recognizes that further efforts are necessary to achieve our common goal of reducing earthquake risk through close collaboration and focused discussions at the 12th UJNR meeting.

  5. The SMART CLUSTER METHOD - adaptive earthquake cluster analysis and declustering

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schaefer, Andreas; Daniell, James; Wenzel, Friedemann

    2016-04-01

    Earthquake declustering is an essential part of almost any statistical analysis of spatial and temporal properties of seismic activity with usual applications comprising of probabilistic seismic hazard assessments (PSHAs) and earthquake prediction methods. The nature of earthquake clusters and subsequent declustering of earthquake catalogues plays a crucial role in determining the magnitude-dependent earthquake return period and its respective spatial variation. Various methods have been developed to address this issue from other researchers. These have differing ranges of complexity ranging from rather simple statistical window methods to complex epidemic models. This study introduces the smart cluster method (SCM), a new methodology to identify earthquake clusters, which uses an adaptive point process for spatio-temporal identification. Hereby, an adaptive search algorithm for data point clusters is adopted. It uses the earthquake density in the spatio-temporal neighbourhood of each event to adjust the search properties. The identified clusters are subsequently analysed to determine directional anisotropy, focussing on a strong correlation along the rupture plane and adjusts its search space with respect to directional properties. In the case of rapid subsequent ruptures like the 1992 Landers sequence or the 2010/2011 Darfield-Christchurch events, an adaptive classification procedure is applied to disassemble subsequent ruptures which may have been grouped into an individual cluster using near-field searches, support vector machines and temporal splitting. The steering parameters of the search behaviour are linked to local earthquake properties like magnitude of completeness, earthquake density and Gutenberg-Richter parameters. The method is capable of identifying and classifying earthquake clusters in space and time. It is tested and validated using earthquake data from California and New Zealand. As a result of the cluster identification process, each event in

  6. Using Dynamic Fourier Analysis to Discriminate Between Seismic Signals from Natural Earthquakes and Mining Explosions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maria C. Mariani

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available A sequence of intraplate earthquakes occurred in Arizona at the same location where miningexplosions were carried out in previous years. The explosions and some of the earthquakes generatedvery similar seismic signals. In this study Dynamic Fourier Analysis is used for discriminating signalsoriginating from natural earthquakes and mining explosions. Frequency analysis of seismogramsrecorded at regional distances shows that compared with the mining explosions the earthquake signalshave larger amplitudes in the frequency interval ~ 6 to 8 Hz and significantly smaller amplitudes inthe frequency interval ~ 2 to 4 Hz. This type of analysis permits identifying characteristics in theseismograms frequency yielding to detect potentially risky seismic events.

  7. Turkish Children's Ideas about Earthquakes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Simsek, Canan Lacin

    2007-01-01

    Earthquake, a natural disaster, is among the fundamental problems of many countries. If people know how to protect themselves from earthquake and arrange their life styles in compliance with this, damage they will suffer will reduce to that extent. In particular, a good training regarding earthquake to be received in primary schools is considered…

  8. Organizational changes at Earthquakes & Volcanoes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gordon, David W.

    1992-01-01

    Primary responsibility for the preparation of Earthquakes & Volcanoes within the Geological Survey has shifted from the Office of Scientific Publications to the Office of Earthquakes, Volcanoes, and Engineering (OEVE). As a consequence of this reorganization, Henry Spall has stepepd down as Science Editor for Earthquakes & Volcanoes(E&V).

  9. Sensing the earthquake

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bichisao, Marta; Stallone, Angela

    2017-04-01

    Making science visual plays a crucial role in the process of building knowledge. In this view, art can considerably facilitate the representation of the scientific content, by offering a different perspective on how a specific problem could be approached. Here we explore the possibility of presenting the earthquake process through visual dance. From a choreographer's point of view, the focus is always on the dynamic relationships between moving objects. The observed spatial patterns (coincidences, repetitions, double and rhythmic configurations) suggest how objects organize themselves in the environment and what are the principles underlying that organization. The identified set of rules is then implemented as a basis for the creation of a complex rhythmic and visual dance system. Recently, scientists have turned seismic waves into sound and animations, introducing the possibility of "feeling" the earthquakes. We try to implement these results into a choreographic model with the aim to convert earthquake sound to a visual dance system, which could return a transmedia representation of the earthquake process. In particular, we focus on a possible method to translate and transfer the metric language of seismic sound and animations into body language. The objective is to involve the audience into a multisensory exploration of the earthquake phenomenon, through the stimulation of the hearing, eyesight and perception of the movements (neuromotor system). In essence, the main goal of this work is to develop a method for a simultaneous visual and auditory representation of a seismic event by means of a structured choreographic model. This artistic representation could provide an original entryway into the physics of earthquakes.

  10. PAGER--Rapid assessment of an earthquake?s impact

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wald, D.J.; Jaiswal, K.; Marano, K.D.; Bausch, D.; Hearne, M.

    2010-01-01

    PAGER (Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response) is an automated system that produces content concerning the impact of significant earthquakes around the world, informing emergency responders, government and aid agencies, and the media of the scope of the potential disaster. PAGER rapidly assesses earthquake impacts by comparing the population exposed to each level of shaking intensity with models of economic and fatality losses based on past earthquakes in each country or region of the world. Earthquake alerts--which were formerly sent based only on event magnitude and location, or population exposure to shaking--now will also be generated based on the estimated range of fatalities and economic losses.

  11. The 1976 Tangshan earthquake

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fang, Wang

    1979-01-01

    The Tangshan earthquake of 1976 was one of the largest earthquakes in recent years. It occurred on July 28 at 3:42 a.m, Beijing (Peking) local time, and had magnitude 7.8, focal depth of 15 kilometers, and an epicentral intensity of XI on the New Chinese Seismic Intensity Scale; it caused serious damage and loss of life in this densely populated industrial city. Now, with the help of people from all over China, the city of Tangshan is being rebuild. 

  12. Understanding Animal Detection of Precursor Earthquake Sounds.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garstang, Michael; Kelley, Michael C

    2017-08-31

    We use recent research to provide an explanation of how animals might detect earthquakes before they occur. While the intrinsic value of such warnings is immense, we show that the complexity of the process may result in inconsistent responses of animals to the possible precursor signal. Using the results of our research, we describe a logical but complex sequence of geophysical events triggered by precursor earthquake crustal movements that ultimately result in a sound signal detectable by animals. The sound heard by animals occurs only when metal or other surfaces (glass) respond to vibrations produced by electric currents induced by distortions of the earth's electric fields caused by the crustal movements. A combination of existing measurement systems combined with more careful monitoring of animal response could nevertheless be of value, particularly in remote locations.

  13. Simulation of rockfalls triggered by earthquakes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kobayashi, Y.; Harp, E.L.; Kagawa, T.

    1990-01-01

    A computer program to simulate the downslope movement of boulders in rolling or bouncing modes has been developed and applied to actual rockfalls triggered by the Mammoth Lakes, California, earthquake sequence in 1980 and the Central Idaho earthquake in 1983. In order to reproduce a movement mode where bouncing predominated, we introduced an artificial unevenness to the slope surface by adding a small random number to the interpolated value of the mid-points between the adjacent surveyed points. Three hundred simulations were computed for each site by changing the random number series, which determined distances and bouncing intervals. The movement of the boulders was, in general, rather erratic depending on the random numbers employed, and the results could not be seen as deterministic but stochastic. The closest agreement between calculated and actual movements was obtained at the site with the most detailed and accurate topographic measurements. ?? 1990 Springer-Verlag.

  14. Earthquake Culture: A Significant Element in Earthquake Disaster Risk Assessment and Earthquake Disaster Risk Management

    OpenAIRE

    Ibrion, Mihaela

    2018-01-01

    This book chapter brings to attention the dramatic impact of large earthquake disasters on local communities and society and highlights the necessity of building and enhancing the earthquake culture. Iran was considered as a research case study and fifteen large earthquake disasters in Iran were investigated and analyzed over more than a century-time period. It was found that the earthquake culture in Iran was and is still conditioned by many factors or parameters which are not integrated and...

  15. Overview of the critical disaster management challenges faced during Van 2011 earthquakes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tolon, Mert; Yazgan, Ufuk; Ural, Derin N; Goss, Kay C

    2014-01-01

    On October 23, 2011, a M7.2 earthquake caused damage in a widespread area in the Van province located in eastern Turkey. This strong earthquake was followed by a M5.7 earthquake on November 9, 2011. This sequence of damaging earthquakes led to 644 fatalities. The management during and after these earthquake disaster imposed many critical challenges. In this article, an overview of these challenges is presented based on the observations by the authors in the aftermath of this disaster. This article presents the characteristics of 2011 Van earthquakes. Afterward, the key information related to the four main phases (ie, preparedness, mitigation, response, and recovery) of the disaster in Van is presented. The potential strategies that can be taken to improve the disaster management practice are identified, and a set of recommendations are proposed to improve the existing situation.

  16. Correlations between solid tides and worldwide earthquakes MS ≥ 7.0 since 1900

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Q. H. Xu

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available Most studies on the correlations between earthquakes and solid tides mainly concluded the syzygies (i.e. new or full moons of each lunar cycle have more earthquakes than other days in the month. We show a correlation between the aftershock sequence of the ML = 6.3 Christchurch, New Zealand, earthquake and the diurnal solid tide. Ms ≥ 7 earthquakes worldwide since 1900 are more likely to occur during the 0°, 90°, 180° or 270° phases (i.e. earthquake-prone phases of the semidiurnal solid earth tidal curve (M2. Thus, the semidiurnal solid tides triggers earthquakes. However, the long-term triggering effect of the lunar periodicity is uncertain. This proposal is helpful in defining possible origin times of aftershocks several days after a mainshock and can be used for warning of subsequent larger shocks.

  17. The mechanism of earthquake

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lu, Kunquan; Cao, Zexian; Hou, Meiying; Jiang, Zehui; Shen, Rong; Wang, Qiang; Sun, Gang; Liu, Jixing

    2018-03-01

    The physical mechanism of earthquake remains a challenging issue to be clarified. Seismologists used to attribute shallow earthquake to the elastic rebound of crustal rocks. The seismic energy calculated following the elastic rebound theory and with the data of experimental results upon rocks, however, shows a large discrepancy with measurement — a fact that has been dubbed as “the heat flow paradox”. For the intermediate-focus and deep-focus earthquakes, both occurring in the region of the mantle, there is not reasonable explanation either. This paper will discuss the physical mechanism of earthquake from a new perspective, starting from the fact that both the crust and the mantle are discrete collective system of matters with slow dynamics, as well as from the basic principles of physics, especially some new concepts of condensed matter physics emerged in the recent years. (1) Stress distribution in earth’s crust: Without taking the tectonic force into account, according to the rheological principle of “everything flows”, the normal stress and transverse stress must be balanced due to the effect of gravitational pressure over a long period of time, thus no differential stress in the original crustal rocks is to be expected. The tectonic force is successively transferred and accumulated via stick-slip motions of rock blocks to squeeze the fault gouge and then exerted upon other rock blocks. The superposition of such additional lateral tectonic force and the original stress gives rise to the real-time stress in crustal rocks. The mechanical characteristics of fault gouge are different from rocks as it consists of granular matters. The elastic moduli of the fault gouges are much less than those of rocks, and they become larger with increasing pressure. This peculiarity of the fault gouge leads to a tectonic force increasing with depth in a nonlinear fashion. The distribution and variation of the tectonic stress in the crust are specified. (2) The

  18. The 2016 Central Italy Earthquake: an Overview

    Science.gov (United States)

    Amato, A.

    2016-12-01

    The M6 central Italy earthquake occurred on the seismic backbone of the Italy, just in the middle of the highest hazard belt. The shock hit suddenly during the night of August 24, when people were asleep; no foreshocks occurred before the main event. The earthquake ruptured from 10 km to the surface, and produced a more than 17,000 aftershocks (Oct. 19) spread on a 40x20 km2 area elongated NW-SE. It is geologically very similar to previous recent events of the Apennines. Both the 2009 L'Aquila earthquake to the south and the 1997 Colfiorito to the north, were characterized by the activation of adjacent fault segments. Despite its magnitude and the well known seismic hazard of the region, the earthquake produced extensive damage and 297 fatalities. The town of Amatrice, that paid the highest toll, was classified in zone 1 (the highest) since 1915, but the buildings in this and other villages revealed highly vulnerable. In contrast, in the town of Norcia, that also experienced strong ground shaking, no collapses occurred, most likely due to the retrofitting carried out after an earthquake in 1979. Soon after the quake, the INGV Crisis Unit convened at night in the Rome headquarters, in order to coordinate the activities. The first field teams reached the epicentral area at 7 am with the portable seismic stations installed to monitor the aftershocks; other teams followed to map surface faults, damage, to measure GPS sites, to install instruments for site response studies, and so on. The INGV Crisis Unit includes the Press office and the INGVterremoti team, in order to manage and coordinate the communication towards the Civil Protection Dept. (DPC), the media and the web. Several tens of reports and updates have been delivered in the first month of the sequence to DPC. Also due to the controversial situation arisen from the L'Aquila earthquake and trials, particular attention was given to the communication: continuous and timely information has been released to

  19. Earthquake clustering in modern seismicity and its relationship with strong historical earthquakes around Beijing, China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Jian; Main, Ian G.; Musson, Roger M. W.

    2017-11-01

    Beijing, China's capital city, is located in a typical intraplate seismic belt, with relatively high-quality instrumental catalogue data available since 1970. The Chinese historical earthquake catalogue contains six strong historical earthquakes of Ms ≥ 6 around Beijing, the earliest in 294 AD. This poses a significant potential hazard to one of the most densely populated and economically active parts of China. In some intraplate areas, persistent clusters of events associated with historical events can occur over centuries, for example, the ongoing sequence in the New Madrid zone of the eastern US. Here we will examine the evidence for such persistent clusters around Beijing. We introduce a metric known as the `seismic density index' that quantifies the degree of clustering of seismic energy release. For a given map location, this multi-dimensional index depends on the number of events, their magnitudes, and the distances to the locations of the surrounding population of earthquakes. We apply the index to modern instrumental catalogue data between 1970 and 2014, and identify six clear candidate zones. We then compare these locations to earthquake epicentre and seismic intensity data for the six largest historical earthquakes. Each candidate zone contains one of the six historical events, and the location of peak intensity is within 5 km or so of the reported epicentre in five of these cases. In one case—the great Ms 8 earthquake of 1679—the peak is closer to the area of strongest shaking (Intensity XI or more) than the reported epicentre. The present-day event rates are similar to those predicted by the modified Omori law but there is no evidence of ongoing decay in event rates. Accordingly, the index is more likely to be picking out the location of persistent weaknesses in the lithosphere. Our results imply zones of high seismic density index could be used in principle to indicate the location of unrecorded historical of palaeoseismic events, in China and

  20. Do I Really Sound Like That? Communicating Earthquake Science Following Significant Earthquakes at the NEIC

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hayes, G. P.; Earle, P. S.; Benz, H.; Wald, D. J.; Yeck, W. L.

    2017-12-01

    The U.S. Geological Survey's National Earthquake Information Center (NEIC) responds to about 160 magnitude 6.0 and larger earthquakes every year and is regularly inundated with information requests following earthquakes that cause significant impact. These requests often start within minutes after the shaking occurs and come from a wide user base including the general public, media, emergency managers, and government officials. Over the past several years, the NEIC's earthquake response has evolved its communications strategy to meet the changing needs of users and the evolving media landscape. The NEIC produces a cascade of products starting with basic hypocentral parameters and culminating with estimates of fatalities and economic loss. We speed the delivery of content by prepositioning and automatically generating products such as, aftershock plots, regional tectonic summaries, maps of historical seismicity, and event summary posters. Our goal is to have information immediately available so we can quickly address the response needs of a particular event or sequence. This information is distributed to hundreds of thousands of users through social media, email alerts, programmatic data feeds, and webpages. Many of our products are included in event summary posters that can be downloaded and printed for local display. After significant earthquakes, keeping up with direct inquiries and interview requests from TV, radio, and print reports is always challenging. The NEIC works with the USGS Office of Communications and the USGS Science Information Services to organize and respond to these requests. Written executive summaries reports are produced and distributed to USGS personnel and collaborators throughout the country. These reports are updated during the response to keep our message consistent and information up to date. This presentation will focus on communications during NEIC's rapid earthquake response but will also touch on the broader USGS traditional and

  1. Periodic, chaotic, and doubled earthquake recurrence intervals on the deep San Andreas fault.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shelly, David R

    2010-06-11

    Earthquake recurrence histories may provide clues to the timing of future events, but long intervals between large events obscure full recurrence variability. In contrast, small earthquakes occur frequently, and recurrence intervals are quantifiable on a much shorter time scale. In this work, I examine an 8.5-year sequence of more than 900 recurring low-frequency earthquake bursts composing tremor beneath the San Andreas fault near Parkfield, California. These events exhibit tightly clustered recurrence intervals that, at times, oscillate between approximately 3 and approximately 6 days, but the patterns sometimes change abruptly. Although the environments of large and low-frequency earthquakes are different, these observations suggest that similar complexity might underlie sequences of large earthquakes.

  2. Homogeneous catalogs of earthquakes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Knopoff, L; Gardner, J K

    1969-08-01

    The usual bias in earthquake catalogs against shocks of small magnitudes can be removed by testing the randomness of the magnitudes of successive shocks. The southern California catalog, 1933-1967, is found to be unbiased in the sense of the test at magnitude 4 or above; the cutoff is improved to M = 3 for the subcatalog 1953-1967.

  3. HOMOGENEOUS CATALOGS OF EARTHQUAKES*

    Science.gov (United States)

    Knopoff, Leon; Gardner, J. K.

    1969-01-01

    The usual bias in earthquake catalogs against shocks of small magnitudes can be removed by testing the randomness of the magnitudes of successive shocks. The southern California catalog, 1933-1967, is found to be unbiased in the sense of the test at magnitude 4 or above; the cutoff is improved to M = 3 for the subcatalog 1953-1967. PMID:16578700

  4. Earthquake in Haiti

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Holm, Isak Winkel

    2012-01-01

    In the vocabulary of modern disaster research, Heinrich von Kleist's seminal short story "The Earthquake in Chile" from 1806 is a tale of disaster vulnerability. The story is not just about a natural disaster destroying the innocent city of Santiago but also about the ensuing social disaster...

  5. Earthquake-proof plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Francescutti, P.

    2008-01-01

    In the wake of the damage suffered by the Kashiwazaki-Kariwa nuclear power plant as a result of an earthquake last July, this article looks at the seismic risk affecting the Spanish plants and the safety measures in place to prevent it. (Author)

  6. Earthquakes and market crashes

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    We find prominent similarities in the features of the time series for the (model earthquakes or) overlap of two Cantor sets when one set moves with uniform relative velocity over the other and time series of stock prices. An anticipation method for some of the crashes have been proposed here, based on these observations.

  7. High-resolution earthquake relocation in the Fort Worth and Permian Basins using regional seismic stations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ogwari, P.; DeShon, H. R.; Hornbach, M.

    2017-12-01

    Post-2008 earthquake rate increases in the Central United States have been associated with large-scale subsurface disposal of waste-fluids from oil and gas operations. The beginning of various earthquake sequences in Fort Worth and Permian basins have occurred in the absence of seismic stations at local distances to record and accurately locate hypocenters. Most typically, the initial earthquakes have been located using regional seismic network stations (>100km epicentral distance) and using global 1D velocity models, which usually results in large location uncertainty, especially in depth, does not resolve magnitude filters and regional relative location when local data becomes available. We use the local distance data for high-resolution earthquake location, identifying earthquake templates and accurate source-station raypath velocities for the Pg and Lg phases at regional stations. A matched-filter analysis is then applied to seismograms recorded at US network stations and at adopted TA stations that record the earthquakes before and during the local network deployment period. Positive detections are declared based on manual review of associated with P and S arrivals on local stations. We apply hierarchical clustering to distinguish earthquakes that are both spatially clustered and spatially separated. Finally, we conduct relative earthquake and earthquake cluster location using regional station differential times. Initial analysis applied to the 2008-2009 DFW airport sequence in north Texas results in time continuous imaging of epicenters extending into 2014. Seventeen earthquakes in the USGS earthquake catalog scattered across a 10km2 area near DFW airport are relocated onto a single fault using these approaches. These techniques will also be applied toward imaging recent earthquakes in the Permian Basin near Pecos, TX.

  8. Damage Localization and Quantification of Earthquake Excited RC-Frames

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Skjærbæk, P. S.; Nielsen, Søren R. K.; Kirkegaard, Poul Henning

    1998-01-01

    of the ground motion events the storey accelerations were measured by accelerometers. After application of the last earthquake sequence to the structure the frames were cut into pieces and each of the beams and columns was statically tested and damage assessment was performed using the obtained stiffnesses...

  9. Integrated geophysical characteristics of the 2015 Illapel, Chile, earthquake

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Herman, Matthew W.; Nealy, Jennifer L.; Yeck, William L.; Barnhart, William D.; Hayes, Gavin P.; Furlong, Kevin P.; Benz, Harley M.

    2017-01-01

    On 16 September 2015, a Mw 8.3 earthquake ruptured the subduction zone offshore of Illapel, Chile, generating an aftershock sequence with 14 Mw 6.0–7.0 events. A double source W phase moment tensor inversion consists of a Mw 7.2 subevent and the main Mw 8.2 phase. We determine two slip models for

  10. Engineering geological aspect of Gorkha Earthquake 2015, Nepal

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adhikari, Basanta Raj; Andermann, Christoff; Cook, Kristen

    2016-04-01

    the ground especially in the epicenter area. Similarly, liquefaction occurred in the different parts of Kathmandu valley. However, the recording in KATNP and DMG indicate that the ground motions that resulted from the quake were not strong enough to fully weaken liquefiable materials and in most cases incipient or "marginal" liquefaction was observed. Here, we will present a compilation of the different types of mass wasting that have occurred in this region and discuss their location and hazard potential for local communities. References: Adhikari, L.B., Gautam, U.P., Koirala, B.P., Bhattarai, M., Kandel, T., Gupta, R.M., Timsina, C., Maharjan, N., Maharjan, K., Dhahal, T., Hoste-Colomer, R., Cano, Y., Dandine, M., Guhem, A., Merrer, S., Roudil, P., Bollinger, L., 2015, The aftershock sequence of the 2015 April 25 Gorkha-Nepal Earthquake, Geophysical Journal International, v. 203 (3), pp. 2119-2124. Earthquake Without Frontiers, 2015, http://ewf.nerc.ac.uk/2015/05/12/nepal-update-on-landslide-hazard-following-12-may-2015-earthquake/ GEER, 2015: Geotechnical Extreme Event Reconnaissance http://www.geerassociation.org Moss, R.E.S., Thompson, E.M., Kieffer, D.S., Tiwari, B., Hashash, Y.M.A., Acharya, I., Adhikari B.R., Asimaki, D., Clahan, K.B., Collins, B.D., Dahal, S., Jibson, R.W., Khadka, D., Machdonald, A. Madugo C.L., Mason, H.B., Pehlivan., M., Rayamajhi, D. and Upreti. S., 2015, Geotechnical Effects of the 2015 AMgnitude 7.8 Gorkah, Nepal, Earthquake and Aftershocks, seismological Research Letters, v. 86(6), PP. 1514-1523 National Seismoligical Center, 2015, http://www.seismonepal.gov.np/

  11. Simulated earthquake ground motions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vanmarcke, E.H.; Gasparini, D.A.

    1977-01-01

    The paper reviews current methods for generating synthetic earthquake ground motions. Emphasis is on the special requirements demanded of procedures to generate motions for use in nuclear power plant seismic response analysis. Specifically, very close agreement is usually sought between the response spectra of the simulated motions and prescribed, smooth design response spectra. The features and capabilities of the computer program SIMQKE, which has been widely used in power plant seismic work are described. Problems and pitfalls associated with the use of synthetic ground motions in seismic safety assessment are also pointed out. The limitations and paucity of recorded accelerograms together with the widespread use of time-history dynamic analysis for obtaining structural and secondary systems' response have motivated the development of earthquake simulation capabilities. A common model for synthesizing earthquakes is that of superposing sinusoidal components with random phase angles. The input parameters for such a model are, then, the amplitudes and phase angles of the contributing sinusoids as well as the characteristics of the variation of motion intensity with time, especially the duration of the motion. The amplitudes are determined from estimates of the Fourier spectrum or the spectral density function of the ground motion. These amplitudes may be assumed to be varying in time or constant for the duration of the earthquake. In the nuclear industry, the common procedure is to specify a set of smooth response spectra for use in aseismic design. This development and the need for time histories have generated much practical interest in synthesizing earthquakes whose response spectra 'match', or are compatible with a set of specified smooth response spectra

  12. Simulation of broadband ground motion including nonlinear soil effects for a magnitude 6.5 earthquake on the Seattle fault, Seattle, Washington

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hartzell, S.; Leeds, A.; Frankel, A.; Williams, R.A.; Odum, J.; Stephenson, W.; Silva, W.

    2002-01-01

    The Seattle fault poses a significant seismic hazard to the city of Seattle, Washington. A hybrid, low-frequency, high-frequency method is used to calculate broadband (0-20 Hz) ground-motion time histories for a M 6.5 earthquake on the Seattle fault. Low frequencies (1 Hz) are calculated by a stochastic method that uses a fractal subevent size distribution to give an ω-2 displacement spectrum. Time histories are calculated for a grid of stations and then corrected for the local site response using a classification scheme based on the surficial geology. Average shear-wave velocity profiles are developed for six surficial geologic units: artificial fill, modified land, Esperance sand, Lawton clay, till, and Tertiary sandstone. These profiles together with other soil parameters are used to compare linear, equivalent-linear, and nonlinear predictions of ground motion in the frequency band 0-15 Hz. Linear site-response corrections are found to yield unreasonably large ground motions. Equivalent-linear and nonlinear calculations give peak values similar to the 1994 Northridge, California, earthquake and those predicted by regression relationships. Ground-motion variance is estimated for (1) randomization of the velocity profiles, (2) variation in source parameters, and (3) choice of nonlinear model. Within the limits of the models tested, the results are found to be most sensitive to the nonlinear model and soil parameters, notably the over consolidation ratio.

  13. Global risk of big earthquakes has not recently increased.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shearer, Peter M; Stark, Philip B

    2012-01-17

    The recent elevated rate of large earthquakes has fueled concern that the underlying global rate of earthquake activity has increased, which would have important implications for assessments of seismic hazard and our understanding of how faults interact. We examine the timing of large (magnitude M≥7) earthquakes from 1900 to the present, after removing local clustering related to aftershocks. The global rate of M≥8 earthquakes has been at a record high roughly since 2004, but rates have been almost as high before, and the rate of smaller earthquakes is close to its historical average. Some features of the global catalog are improbable in retrospect, but so are some features of most random sequences--if the features are selected after looking at the data. For a variety of magnitude cutoffs and three statistical tests, the global catalog, with local clusters removed, is not distinguishable from a homogeneous Poisson process. Moreover, no plausible physical mechanism predicts real changes in the underlying global rate of large events. Together these facts suggest that the global risk of large earthquakes is no higher today than it has been in the past.

  14. Natural Time and Nowcasting Earthquakes: Are Large Global Earthquakes Temporally Clustered?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luginbuhl, Molly; Rundle, John B.; Turcotte, Donald L.

    2018-01-01

    The objective of this paper is to analyze the temporal clustering of large global earthquakes with respect to natural time, or interevent count, as opposed to regular clock time. To do this, we use two techniques: (1) nowcasting, a new method of statistically classifying seismicity and seismic risk, and (2) time series analysis of interevent counts. We chose the sequences of M_{λ } ≥ 7.0 and M_{λ } ≥ 8.0 earthquakes from the global centroid moment tensor (CMT) catalog from 2004 to 2016 for analysis. A significant number of these earthquakes will be aftershocks of the largest events, but no satisfactory method of declustering the aftershocks in clock time is available. A major advantage of using natural time is that it eliminates the need for declustering aftershocks. The event count we utilize is the number of small earthquakes that occur between large earthquakes. The small earthquake magnitude is chosen to be as small as possible, such that the catalog is still complete based on the Gutenberg-Richter statistics. For the CMT catalog, starting in 2004, we found the completeness magnitude to be M_{σ } ≥ 5.1 . For the nowcasting method, the cumulative probability distribution of these interevent counts is obtained. We quantify the distribution using the exponent, β , of the best fitting Weibull distribution; β = 1 for a random (exponential) distribution. We considered 197 earthquakes with M_{λ } ≥ 7.0 and found β = 0.83 ± 0.08 . We considered 15 earthquakes with M_{λ } ≥ 8.0, but this number was considered too small to generate a meaningful distribution. For comparison, we generated synthetic catalogs of earthquakes that occur randomly with the Gutenberg-Richter frequency-magnitude statistics. We considered a synthetic catalog of 1.97 × 10^5 M_{λ } ≥ 7.0 earthquakes and found β = 0.99 ± 0.01 . The random catalog converted to natural time was also random. We then generated 1.5 × 10^4 synthetic catalogs with 197 M_{λ } ≥ 7.0 in each catalog

  15. Natural Time and Nowcasting Earthquakes: Are Large Global Earthquakes Temporally Clustered?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luginbuhl, Molly; Rundle, John B.; Turcotte, Donald L.

    2018-02-01

    The objective of this paper is to analyze the temporal clustering of large global earthquakes with respect to natural time, or interevent count, as opposed to regular clock time. To do this, we use two techniques: (1) nowcasting, a new method of statistically classifying seismicity and seismic risk, and (2) time series analysis of interevent counts. We chose the sequences of M_{λ } ≥ 7.0 and M_{λ } ≥ 8.0 earthquakes from the global centroid moment tensor (CMT) catalog from 2004 to 2016 for analysis. A significant number of these earthquakes will be aftershocks of the largest events, but no satisfactory method of declustering the aftershocks in clock time is available. A major advantage of using natural time is that it eliminates the need for declustering aftershocks. The event count we utilize is the number of small earthquakes that occur between large earthquakes. The small earthquake magnitude is chosen to be as small as possible, such that the catalog is still complete based on the Gutenberg-Richter statistics. For the CMT catalog, starting in 2004, we found the completeness magnitude to be M_{σ } ≥ 5.1. For the nowcasting method, the cumulative probability distribution of these interevent counts is obtained. We quantify the distribution using the exponent, β, of the best fitting Weibull distribution; β = 1 for a random (exponential) distribution. We considered 197 earthquakes with M_{λ } ≥ 7.0 and found β = 0.83 ± 0.08. We considered 15 earthquakes with M_{λ } ≥ 8.0, but this number was considered too small to generate a meaningful distribution. For comparison, we generated synthetic catalogs of earthquakes that occur randomly with the Gutenberg-Richter frequency-magnitude statistics. We considered a synthetic catalog of 1.97 × 10^5 M_{λ } ≥ 7.0 earthquakes and found β = 0.99 ± 0.01. The random catalog converted to natural time was also random. We then generated 1.5 × 10^4 synthetic catalogs with 197 M_{λ } ≥ 7.0 in each catalog and

  16. Accounting for orphaned aftershocks in the earthquake background rate

    Science.gov (United States)

    van der Elst, Nicholas J.

    2017-11-01

    Aftershocks often occur within cascades of triggered seismicity in which each generation of aftershocks triggers an additional generation, and so on. The rate of earthquakes in any particular generation follows Omori's law, going approximately as 1/t. This function decays rapidly, but is heavy-tailed, and aftershock sequences may persist for long times at a rate that is difficult to discriminate from background. It is likely that some apparently spontaneous earthquakes in the observational catalogue are orphaned aftershocks of long-past main shocks. To assess the relative proportion of orphaned aftershocks in the apparent background rate, I develop an extension of the ETAS model that explicitly includes the expected contribution of orphaned aftershocks to the apparent background rate. Applying this model to California, I find that the apparent background rate can be almost entirely attributed to orphaned aftershocks, depending on the assumed duration of an aftershock sequence. This implies an earthquake cascade with a branching ratio (the average number of directly triggered aftershocks per main shock) of nearly unity. In physical terms, this implies that very few earthquakes are completely isolated from the perturbing effects of other earthquakes within the fault system. Accounting for orphaned aftershocks in the ETAS model gives more accurate estimates of the true background rate, and more realistic expectations for long-term seismicity patterns.

  17. Accounting for orphaned aftershocks in the earthquake background rate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Van Der Elst, Nicholas

    2017-01-01

    Aftershocks often occur within cascades of triggered seismicity in which each generation of aftershocks triggers an additional generation, and so on. The rate of earthquakes in any particular generation follows Omori's law, going approximately as 1/t. This function decays rapidly, but is heavy-tailed, and aftershock sequences may persist for long times at a rate that is difficult to discriminate from background. It is likely that some apparently spontaneous earthquakes in the observational catalogue are orphaned aftershocks of long-past main shocks. To assess the relative proportion of orphaned aftershocks in the apparent background rate, I develop an extension of the ETAS model that explicitly includes the expected contribution of orphaned aftershocks to the apparent background rate. Applying this model to California, I find that the apparent background rate can be almost entirely attributed to orphaned aftershocks, depending on the assumed duration of an aftershock sequence. This implies an earthquake cascade with a branching ratio (the average number of directly triggered aftershocks per main shock) of nearly unity. In physical terms, this implies that very few earthquakes are completely isolated from the perturbing effects of other earthquakes within the fault system. Accounting for orphaned aftershocks in the ETAS model gives more accurate estimates of the true background rate, and more realistic expectations for long-term seismicity patterns.

  18. Sediment gravity flows triggered by remotely generated earthquake waves

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnson, H. Paul; Gomberg, Joan S.; Hautala, Susan L.; Salmi, Marie S.

    2017-06-01

    Recent great earthquakes and tsunamis around the world have heightened awareness of the inevitability of similar events occurring within the Cascadia Subduction Zone of the Pacific Northwest. We analyzed seafloor temperature, pressure, and seismic signals, and video stills of sediment-enveloped instruments recorded during the 2011-2015 Cascadia Initiative experiment, and seafloor morphology. Our results led us to suggest that thick accretionary prism sediments amplified and extended seismic wave durations from the 11 April 2012 Mw8.6 Indian Ocean earthquake, located more than 13,500 km away. These waves triggered a sequence of small slope failures on the Cascadia margin that led to sediment gravity flows culminating in turbidity currents. Previous studies have related the triggering of sediment-laden gravity flows and turbidite deposition to local earthquakes, but this is the first study in which the originating seismic event is extremely distant (> 10,000 km). The possibility of remotely triggered slope failures that generate sediment-laden gravity flows should be considered in inferences of recurrence intervals of past great Cascadia earthquakes from turbidite sequences. Future similar studies may provide new understanding of submarine slope failures and turbidity currents and the hazards they pose to seafloor infrastructure and tsunami generation in regions both with and without local earthquakes.

  19. Earthquake Complex Network Analysis Before and After the Mw 8.2 Earthquake in Iquique, Chile

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pasten, D.

    2017-12-01

    The earthquake complex networks have shown that they are abble to find specific features in seismic data set. In space, this networkshave shown a scale-free behavior for the probability distribution of connectivity, in directed networks and theyhave shown a small-world behavior, for the undirected networks.In this work, we present an earthquake complex network analysis for the large earthquake Mw 8.2 in the north ofChile (near to Iquique) in April, 2014. An earthquake complex network is made dividing the three dimensional space intocubic cells, if one of this cells contain an hypocenter, we name this cell like a node. The connections between nodes aregenerated in time. We follow the time sequence of seismic events and we are making the connections betweennodes. Now, we have two different networks: a directed and an undirected network. Thedirected network takes in consideration the time-direction of the connections, that is very important for the connectivityof the network: we are considering the connectivity, ki of the i-th node, like the number of connections going out ofthe node i plus the self-connections (if two seismic events occurred successive in time in the same cubic cell, we havea self-connection). The undirected network is made removing the direction of the connections and the self-connectionsfrom the directed network. For undirected networks, we are considering only if two nodes are or not connected.We have built a directed complex network and an undirected complex network, before and after the large earthquake in Iquique. We have used magnitudes greater than Mw = 1.0 and Mw = 3.0. We found that this method can recognize the influence of thissmall seismic events in the behavior of the network and we found that the size of the cell used to build the network isanother important factor to recognize the influence of the large earthquake in this complex system. This method alsoshows a difference in the values of the critical exponent γ (for the probability

  20. Rapid earthquake characterization using MEMS accelerometers and volunteer hosts following the M 7.2 Darfield, New Zealand, Earthquake

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lawrence, J. F.; Cochran, E.S.; Chung, A.; Kaiser, A.; Christensen, C. M.; Allen, R.; Baker, J.W.; Fry, B.; Heaton, T.; Kilb, Debi; Kohler, M.D.; Taufer, M.

    2014-01-01

    We test the feasibility of rapidly detecting and characterizing earthquakes with the Quake‐Catcher Network (QCN) that connects low‐cost microelectromechanical systems accelerometers to a network of volunteer‐owned, Internet‐connected computers. Following the 3 September 2010 M 7.2 Darfield, New Zealand, earthquake we installed over 180 QCN sensors in the Christchurch region to record the aftershock sequence. The sensors are monitored continuously by the host computer and send trigger reports to the central server. The central server correlates incoming triggers to detect when an earthquake has occurred. The location and magnitude are then rapidly estimated from a minimal set of received ground‐motion parameters. Full seismic time series are typically not retrieved for tens of minutes or even hours after an event. We benchmark the QCN real‐time detection performance against the GNS Science GeoNet earthquake catalog. Under normal network operations, QCN detects and characterizes earthquakes within 9.1 s of the earthquake rupture and determines the magnitude within 1 magnitude unit of that reported in the GNS catalog for 90% of the detections.

  1. Historical earthquake research in Austria

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hammerl, Christa

    2017-12-01

    Austria has a moderate seismicity, and on average the population feels 40 earthquakes per year or approximately three earthquakes per month. A severe earthquake with light building damage is expected roughly every 2 to 3 years in Austria. Severe damage to buildings ( I 0 > 8° EMS) occurs significantly less frequently, the average period of recurrence is about 75 years. For this reason the historical earthquake research has been of special importance in Austria. The interest in historical earthquakes in the past in the Austro-Hungarian Empire is outlined, beginning with an initiative of the Austrian Academy of Sciences and the development of historical earthquake research as an independent research field after the 1978 "Zwentendorf plebiscite" on whether the nuclear power plant will start up. The applied methods are introduced briefly along with the most important studies and last but not least as an example of a recently carried out case study, one of the strongest past earthquakes in Austria, the earthquake of 17 July 1670, is presented. The research into historical earthquakes in Austria concentrates on seismic events of the pre-instrumental period. The investigations are not only of historical interest, but also contribute to the completeness and correctness of the Austrian earthquake catalogue, which is the basis for seismic hazard analysis and as such benefits the public, communities, civil engineers, architects, civil protection, and many others.

  2. Tectonic controls on the 1960 Chile megathrust-earthquake segment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Melnick, D.; Moreno, M.,; Strecker, M. S.; Echtler, H. P.

    2009-04-01

    Understanding the principles that govern the triggering of great subduction earthquakes and the finite rupture length, and consequently earthquake magnitude, is of utmost importance for a better assessment of natural hazards at active plate margins. In principle, two major processes have been inferred to generate and control the magnitude of a giant subduction earthquake (M > 9): (1) the forearc of the upper plate has to accumulate enough elastic strain to rupture and cause fault slip, and (2) the rupture has to propagate for a length of hundreds of kilometers. The great 1960 Chile earthquake (Mw 9.5) corresponds to such a megathrust event that ruptured ~1000 km of the Nazca-South America plate boundary. Rupture started at 38.2S, adjacent to the Arauco peninsula, and propagated southward until it stalled in the vicinity of the Chile Triple Junction. We integrate geologic, geodetic, and seismologic data to propose three major factors that control rupture propagation and upper-plate contraction during the 1960 earthquake. These include: microplate behaviour of the Chiloe forearc block, subduction of trench sediments, and the geometry of the deep-reaching, inherited Lanalhue fault zone in the South American plate. The first two factors provide a mechanical homogeneity of the upper plate and plate interface, respectively, smoothing the plate interface and reducing seismic strength, ultimately facilitating rupture propagation over a great distance. The third aspect leads to stress concentration and enhanced upper-plate contraction along the Lanalhue fault and the southern Arauco peninsula, at the leading edge of the Chiloe microplate, where the 1960 earthquake sequence nucleated. The combination of these fortuitous factors is not unique. Forearc microplates associated with trench sediments and inherited deep-reaching faults are characteristic of other subduction zones that have generated Mw > 9 earthquakes. In addition to Chile, the Alaska, Sumatra, and Cascadia

  3. Earthquake hazard evaluation for Switzerland

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ruettener, E.

    1995-01-01

    Earthquake hazard analysis is of considerable importance for Switzerland, a country with moderate seismic activity but high economic values at risk. The evaluation of earthquake hazard, i.e. the determination of return periods versus ground motion parameters, requires a description of earthquake occurrences in space and time. In this study the seismic hazard for major cities in Switzerland is determined. The seismic hazard analysis is based on historic earthquake records as well as instrumental data. The historic earthquake data show considerable uncertainties concerning epicenter location and epicentral intensity. A specific concept is required, therefore, which permits the description of the uncertainties of each individual earthquake. This is achieved by probability distributions for earthquake size and location. Historical considerations, which indicate changes in public earthquake awareness at various times (mainly due to large historical earthquakes), as well as statistical tests have been used to identify time periods of complete earthquake reporting as a function of intensity. As a result, the catalog is judged to be complete since 1878 for all earthquakes with epicentral intensities greater than IV, since 1750 for intensities greater than VI, since 1600 for intensities greater than VIII, and since 1300 for intensities greater than IX. Instrumental data provide accurate information about the depth distribution of earthquakes in Switzerland. In the Alps, focal depths are restricted to the uppermost 15 km of the crust, whereas below the northern Alpine foreland earthquakes are distributed throughout the entire crust (30 km). This depth distribution is considered in the final hazard analysis by probability distributions. (author) figs., tabs., refs

  4. Earthquake likelihood model testing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schorlemmer, D.; Gerstenberger, M.C.; Wiemer, S.; Jackson, D.D.; Rhoades, D.A.

    2007-01-01

    INTRODUCTIONThe Regional Earthquake Likelihood Models (RELM) project aims to produce and evaluate alternate models of earthquake potential (probability per unit volume, magnitude, and time) for California. Based on differing assumptions, these models are produced to test the validity of their assumptions and to explore which models should be incorporated in seismic hazard and risk evaluation. Tests based on physical and geological criteria are useful but we focus on statistical methods using future earthquake catalog data only. We envision two evaluations: a test of consistency with observed data and a comparison of all pairs of models for relative consistency. Both tests are based on the likelihood method, and both are fully prospective (i.e., the models are not adjusted to fit the test data). To be tested, each model must assign a probability to any possible event within a specified region of space, time, and magnitude. For our tests the models must use a common format: earthquake rates in specified “bins” with location, magnitude, time, and focal mechanism limits.Seismology cannot yet deterministically predict individual earthquakes; however, it should seek the best possible models for forecasting earthquake occurrence. This paper describes the statistical rules of an experiment to examine and test earthquake forecasts. The primary purposes of the tests described below are to evaluate physical models for earthquakes, assure that source models used in seismic hazard and risk studies are consistent with earthquake data, and provide quantitative measures by which models can be assigned weights in a consensus model or be judged as suitable for particular regions.In this paper we develop a statistical method for testing earthquake likelihood models. A companion paper (Schorlemmer and Gerstenberger 2007, this issue) discusses the actual implementation of these tests in the framework of the RELM initiative.Statistical testing of hypotheses is a common task and a

  5. Geophysical Anomalies and Earthquake Prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jackson, D. D.

    2008-12-01

    Finding anomalies is easy. Predicting earthquakes convincingly from such anomalies is far from easy. Why? Why have so many beautiful geophysical abnormalities not led to successful prediction strategies? What is earthquake prediction? By my definition it is convincing information that an earthquake of specified size is temporarily much more likely than usual in a specific region for a specified time interval. We know a lot about normal earthquake behavior, including locations where earthquake rates are higher than elsewhere, with estimable rates and size distributions. We know that earthquakes have power law size distributions over large areas, that they cluster in time and space, and that aftershocks follow with power-law dependence on time. These relationships justify prudent protective measures and scientific investigation. Earthquake prediction would justify exceptional temporary measures well beyond those normal prudent actions. Convincing earthquake prediction would result from methods that have demonstrated many successes with few false alarms. Predicting earthquakes convincingly is difficult for several profound reasons. First, earthquakes start in tiny volumes at inaccessible depth. The power law size dependence means that tiny unobservable ones are frequent almost everywhere and occasionally grow to larger size. Thus prediction of important earthquakes is not about nucleation, but about identifying the conditions for growth. Second, earthquakes are complex. They derive their energy from stress, which is perniciously hard to estimate or model because it is nearly singular at the margins of cracks and faults. Physical properties vary from place to place, so the preparatory processes certainly vary as well. Thus establishing the needed track record for validation is very difficult, especially for large events with immense interval times in any one location. Third, the anomalies are generally complex as well. Electromagnetic anomalies in particular require

  6. Identified EM Earthquake Precursors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, Kenneth, II; Saxton, Patrick

    2014-05-01

    Many attempts have been made to determine a sound forecasting method regarding earthquakes and warn the public in turn. Presently, the animal kingdom leads the precursor list alluding to a transmission related source. By applying the animal-based model to an electromagnetic (EM) wave model, various hypotheses were formed, but the most interesting one required the use of a magnetometer with a differing design and geometry. To date, numerous, high-end magnetometers have been in use in close proximity to fault zones for potential earthquake forecasting; however, something is still amiss. The problem still resides with what exactly is forecastable and the investigating direction of EM. After a number of custom rock experiments, two hypotheses were formed which could answer the EM wave model. The first hypothesis concerned a sufficient and continuous electron movement either by surface or penetrative flow, and the second regarded a novel approach to radio transmission. Electron flow along fracture surfaces was determined to be inadequate in creating strong EM fields, because rock has a very high electrical resistance making it a high quality insulator. Penetrative flow could not be corroborated as well, because it was discovered that rock was absorbing and confining electrons to a very thin skin depth. Radio wave transmission and detection worked with every single test administered. This hypothesis was reviewed for propagating, long-wave generation with sufficient amplitude, and the capability of penetrating solid rock. Additionally, fracture spaces, either air or ion-filled, can facilitate this concept from great depths and allow for surficial detection. A few propagating precursor signals have been detected in the field occurring with associated phases using custom-built loop antennae. Field testing was conducted in Southern California from 2006-2011, and outside the NE Texas town of Timpson in February, 2013. The antennae have mobility and observations were noted for

  7. Pain after earthquake

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Angeletti Chiara

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Introduction On 6 April 2009, at 03:32 local time, an Mw 6.3 earthquake hit the Abruzzi region of central Italy causing widespread damage in the City of L Aquila and its nearby villages. The earthquake caused 308 casualties and over 1,500 injuries, displaced more than 25,000 people and induced significant damage to more than 10,000 buildings in the L'Aquila region. Objectives This observational retrospective study evaluated the prevalence and drug treatment of pain in the five weeks following the L'Aquila earthquake (April 6, 2009. Methods 958 triage documents were analysed for patients pain severity, pain type, and treatment efficacy. Results A third of pain patients reported pain with a prevalence of 34.6%. More than half of pain patients reported severe pain (58.8%. Analgesic agents were limited to available drugs: anti-inflammatory agents, paracetamol, and weak opioids. Reduction in verbal numerical pain scores within the first 24 hours after treatment was achieved with the medications at hand. Pain prevalence and characterization exhibited a biphasic pattern with acute pain syndromes owing to trauma occurring in the first 15 days after the earthquake; traumatic pain then decreased and re-surged at around week five, owing to rebuilding efforts. In the second through fourth week, reports of pain occurred mainly owing to relapses of chronic conditions. Conclusions This study indicates that pain is prevalent during natural disasters, may exhibit a discernible pattern over the weeks following the event, and current drug treatments in this region may be adequate for emergency situations.

  8. Do Earthquakes Shake Stock Markets?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ferreira, Susana; Karali, Berna

    2015-01-01

    This paper examines how major earthquakes affected the returns and volatility of aggregate stock market indices in thirty-five financial markets over the last twenty years. Results show that global financial markets are resilient to shocks caused by earthquakes even if these are domestic. Our analysis reveals that, in a few instances, some macroeconomic variables and earthquake characteristics (gross domestic product per capita, trade openness, bilateral trade flows, earthquake magnitude, a tsunami indicator, distance to the epicenter, and number of fatalities) mediate the impact of earthquakes on stock market returns, resulting in a zero net effect. However, the influence of these variables is market-specific, indicating no systematic pattern across global capital markets. Results also demonstrate that stock market volatility is unaffected by earthquakes, except for Japan.

  9. Earthquake engineering for nuclear facilities

    CERN Document Server

    Kuno, Michiya

    2017-01-01

    This book is a comprehensive compilation of earthquake- and tsunami-related technologies and knowledge for the design and construction of nuclear facilities. As such, it covers a wide range of fields including civil engineering, architecture, geotechnical engineering, mechanical engineering, and nuclear engineering, for the development of new technologies providing greater resistance against earthquakes and tsunamis. It is crucial both for students of nuclear energy courses and for young engineers in nuclear power generation industries to understand the basics and principles of earthquake- and tsunami-resistant design of nuclear facilities. In Part I, "Seismic Design of Nuclear Power Plants", the design of nuclear power plants to withstand earthquakes and tsunamis is explained, focusing on buildings, equipment's, and civil engineering structures. In Part II, "Basics of Earthquake Engineering", fundamental knowledge of earthquakes and tsunamis as well as the dynamic response of structures and foundation ground...

  10. Earthquake resistant design of structures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Choi, Chang Geun; Kim, Gyu Seok; Lee, Dong Geun

    1990-02-01

    This book tells of occurrence of earthquake and damage analysis of earthquake, equivalent static analysis method, application of equivalent static analysis method, dynamic analysis method like time history analysis by mode superposition method and direct integration method, design spectrum analysis considering an earthquake-resistant design in Korea. Such as analysis model and vibration mode, calculation of base shear, calculation of story seismic load and combine of analysis results.

  11. Complex networks of earthquakes and aftershocks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Baiesi

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available We invoke a metric to quantify the correlation between any two earthquakes. This provides a simple and straightforward alternative to using space-time windows to detect aftershock sequences and obviates the need to distinguish main shocks from aftershocks. Directed networks of earthquakes are constructed by placing a link, directed from the past to the future, between pairs of events that are strongly correlated. Each link has a weight giving the relative strength of correlation such that the sum over the incoming links to any node equals unity for aftershocks, or zero if the event had no correlated predecessors. A correlation threshold is set to drastically reduce the size of the data set without losing significant information. Events can be aftershocks of many previous events, and also generate many aftershocks. The probability distribution for the number of incoming and outgoing links are both scale free, and the networks are highly clustered. The Omori law holds for aftershock rates up to a decorrelation time that scales with the magnitude, m, of the initiating shock as tcutoff~10β m with β~-3/4. Another scaling law relates distances between earthquakes and their aftershocks to the magnitude of the initiating shock. Our results are inconsistent with the hypothesis of finite aftershock zones. We also find evidence that seismicity is dominantly triggered by small earthquakes. Our approach, using concepts from the modern theory of complex networks, together with a metric to estimate correlations, opens up new avenues of research, as well as new tools to understand seismicity.

  12. Caspian Earthquake of November 25, 2000

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Arif, Hasanov; Behruz, Panahi

    2002-01-01

    Full text:Strong earthquake was felt in Absheron peninsula and surrounds in the Caspian Sea region at 18.09 GMT on November 25, 2000. According to alert information of Republic Center of Seismic Service of Azerbaijan Academy of Sciences the macro seismic epicenter of the main shock are located towards to north of Absheron peninsula. Preliminary information of Alert Service of Geophysical Service of Russian Academy of Sciences confirmed the mentioned location of epicenter and aftershocks sequence. The location of epicenter towards to north from Absheron peninsula also was determined according to data of Dagestan Experimental Methodic Expedition of Russian Academy of Sciences. Strong earthquake within western part of Caspian sea region was felt on November 25, 2000. Instrumental estimations of source depth of November 25, 2000 earthquake that carried out by different seismic services vary in a wide range from 10 to 97.4 km. Primary information about local mechanism of the easrtquake taken from CMT-Harvard Catalogue, Potsdam Center and AS GS RAS sources. Earthquake of November 25, 2000 occurred with maximum intensity within Absheron peninsula, and also within north-western and north-eastern coastal zones of Caspian Sea. In contradistinction to that the macro seismic intensity reached 3-4 degree of MSK within south-eastern coastal strip. This orientation can be explained by the fault system of NW-SE strike developed in the region along that the value of macro seismic intensity attenuation coefficient more greater in comparison with neighbor areas. This fact and known divergence between co-ordinates of macro seismic and instrumental epicenters gives right to situate the macro seismic epicenter northerner of Absheron peninsula

  13. Earthquake forecasting and its verification

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. R. Holliday

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available No proven method is currently available for the reliable short time prediction of earthquakes (minutes to months. However, it is possible to make probabilistic hazard assessments for earthquake risk. In this paper we discuss a new approach to earthquake forecasting based on a pattern informatics (PI method which quantifies temporal variations in seismicity. The output, which is based on an association of small earthquakes with future large earthquakes, is a map of areas in a seismogenic region ('hotspots'' where earthquakes are forecast to occur in a future 10-year time span. This approach has been successfully applied to California, to Japan, and on a worldwide basis. Because a sharp decision threshold is used, these forecasts are binary--an earthquake is forecast either to occur or to not occur. The standard approach to the evaluation of a binary forecast is the use of the relative (or receiver operating characteristic (ROC diagram, which is a more restrictive test and less subject to bias than maximum likelihood tests. To test our PI method, we made two types of retrospective forecasts for California. The first is the PI method and the second is a relative intensity (RI forecast based on the hypothesis that future large earthquakes will occur where most smaller earthquakes have occurred in the recent past. While both retrospective forecasts are for the ten year period 1 January 2000 to 31 December 2009, we performed an interim analysis 5 years into the forecast. The PI method out performs the RI method under most circumstances.

  14. Do magnitudes of great subduction earthquakes depend on strength of mechanical coupling between the plates?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sobolev, Stephan; Muldashev, Iskander

    2017-04-01

    The common thinking is that the magnitude of a great subduction earthquake correlates with the strength of mechanical coupling between slab and overriding plate. Based on this idea, Ruff and Kanamori (1980) suggested that maximum earthquake's magnitude is controlled by two parameters: age of subducting plate and plate convergence rate, when the youngest and the fastest slabs generate the largest earthquakes. This view was supported by many researches since then. However, since 1980 a number of great earthquakes, and particularly two largest earthquakes of the last 12 years, i.e. Great Sumatra/Andaman 2004 Earthquake and Tohoku 2011 earthquake, have violated the suggested correlation. We address the relation between strength of mechanical coupling and earthquake magnitude directly by cross-scale geodynamic modeling of seismic cycles of great subduction earthquakes. This modeling technique employs elasticity, non-linear transient viscous rheology, and rate-and-state friction at slab interface. It generates spontaneous earthquake sequences, and, by using an adaptive time-step algorithm, recreates the deformation process as observed naturally over single and multiple seismic cycles. We model seismic cycles for the great subduction earthquakes with different geometries of subducting plates, different static friction coefficients in subduction channels and different subduction velocities. Under the assumption that rupture length scales with the rupture width, our models demonstrate that maximum magnitudes of the earthquakes are exclusively controlled by the factors that increase rupture width. These factors are: low slab's dipping angle (the largest effect), low friction coefficient in subduction channel (smaller effect) and high subduction velocity (the smallest effect). Models suggest that maximum magnitudes of earthquakes do not correlate significantly with the magnitudes of normal and shear stresses at subduction interface. In agreement with observations, our models

  15. Influence of fault heterogeneity on the frequency-magnitude statistics of earthquake cycle simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Norbeck, Jack; Horne, Roland

    2017-04-01

    Numerical models are useful tools for investigating natural geologic conditions can affect seismicity, but it can often be difficult to generate realistic earthquake sequences using physics-based earthquake rupture models. Rate-and-state earthquake cycle simulations on planar faults with homogeneous frictional properties and stress conditions typically yield single event sequences with a single earthquake magnitude characteristic of the size of the fault. In reality, earthquake sequences have been observed to follow a Gutenberg-Richter-type frequency-magnitude distribution that can be characterized by a power law scaling relationship. The purpose of this study was to determine how fault heterogeneity can affect the frequency-magnitude distribution of simulated earthquake events. We considered the effects fault heterogeneity at two different length-scales by performing numerical earthquake rupture simulations within a rate-and-state friction framework. In our first study, we investigated how heterogeneous, fractal distributions of shear and normal stress resolved along a two-dimensional fault surface influenced the earthquake nucleation, rupture, and arrest processes. We generated a catalog of earthquake events by performing earthquake cycle simulations for 90 random realizations of fractal stress distributions. Typical realizations produced between 4 to 6 individual earthquakes ranging in event magnitudes between those characteristic of the minimum patch size for nucleation and the size of the model fault. The resulting aggregate frequency-magnitude distributions were characterized well by a power-law scaling behavior. In our second study, we performed simulations of injection-induced seismicity using a coupled fluid flow and rate-and-state earthquake model. Fluid flow in a two-dimensional reservoir was modeled, and the fault mechanics was modeled under a plane strain assumption (i.e., one-dimensional faults). We generated a set of faults with an average strike of

  16. Earthquake magnitude time series: scaling behavior of visibility networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aguilar-San Juan, B.; Guzmán-Vargas, L.

    2013-11-01

    We present a statistical analysis of earthquake magnitude sequences in terms of the visibility graph method. Magnitude time series from Italy, Southern California, and Mexico are transformed into networks and some organizational graph properties are discussed. Connectivities are characterized by a scale-free distribution with a noticeable effect for large scales due to either the presence or the lack of large events. Also, a scaling behavior is observed between different node measures like betweenness centrality, clustering coefficient, nearest neighbor connectivity, and earthquake magnitude. Moreover, parameters which quantify the difference between forward and backward links, are proposed to evaluate the asymmetry of visibility attachment mechanism. Our results show an alternating average behavior of these parameters as earthquake magnitude changes. Finally, we evaluate the effects of reducing temporal and spatial windows of observation upon visibility network properties for main-shocks.

  17. Foreshocks and Aftershocks in Simple Earthquake Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tiampo, K. F.; Klein, W.; Dominguez, R.; Kazemian, J.; González, P. J.

    2014-12-01

    Natural earthquake fault systems are highly heterogeneous in space; inhomogeneities occur because the earth is made of a variety of materials of different strengths and dissipate stress differently. Because the spatial arrangement of these materials is dependent on the geologic history, the distribution of these various materials can be quite complex and occur over a wide range of length scales. Despite their inhomogeneous nature, real faults are often modeled as spatially homogeneous systems. Here we present a simple earthquake fault model based on the Olami-Feder-Christensen (OFC) and Rundle-Jackson-Brown (RJB) cellular automata models with long-range interactions that incorporates a fixed percentage of stronger sites, or 'asperity cells', into the lattice. These asperity cells are significantly stronger than the surrounding lattice sites but eventually rupture when the applied stress reaches their higher threshold stress. The introduction of these spatial heterogeneities results in temporal clustering in the model that mimics those seen in natural fault systems. We observe sequences of activity that start with a gradually accelerating number of larger events (foreshocks) prior to a mainshock that is followed by a tail of decreasing activity (aftershocks). These recurrent large events occur at regular intervals, as is often observed in historic seismicity, and the time between events and their magnitude are a function of the stress dissipation parameter. The relative length of the foreshock to aftershock sequence depends on the amount of stress dissipation in the system, resulting in relatively long aftershock sequences when the stress dissipation is large versus long foreshock sequences when the stress dissipation is weak. This work provides further evidence that the spatial and temporal patterns observed in natural seismicity are strongly influenced by the underlying physical properties and are not solely the result of a simple cascade mechanism. We find that

  18. OPERATIONAL EARTHQUAKE FORECASTING. State of Knowledge and Guidelines for Utilization

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Koshun Yamaoka

    2011-08-01

    earthquake forecasting as the principle means for gathering and disseminating authoritative information about time-dependent seismic hazards to help communities prepare for potentially destructive earthquakes. On short time scales of days and weeks, earthquake sequences show clustering in space and time, as indicated by the aftershocks triggered by large events. Statistical descriptions of clustering explain many features observed in seismicity catalogs, and they can be used to construct forecasts that indicate how earthquake probabilities change over the short term. Properly applied, short-term forecasts have operational utility; for example, in anticipating aftershocks that follow large earthquakes. Although the value of long-term forecasts for ensuring seismic safety is clear, the interpretation of short-term forecasts is problematic, because earthquake probabilities may vary over orders of magnitude but typically remain low in an absolute sense (< 1% per day. Translating such low-probability forecasts into effective decision-making is a difficult challenge. Reports on the current utilization operational forecasting in earthquake risk management were compiled for six countries with high seismic risk: China, Greece, Italy, Japan, Russia, United States. Long-term models are currently the most important forecasting tools for civil protection against earthquake damage, because they guide earthquake safety provisions of building codes, performance-based seismic design, and other risk-reducing engineering practices, such as retrofitting to correct design flaws in older buildings. Short-term forecasting of aftershocks is practiced by several countries among those surveyed, but operational earthquake forecasting has not been fully implemented (i.e., regularly updated and on a national scale in any of them. Based on the experience accumulated in seismically active regions, the ICEF has provided to DPC a set of recommendations on the utilization of operational forecasting in Italy

  19. Accelerated nucleation of the 2014 Iquique, Chile Mw 8.2 Earthquake.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kato, Aitaro; Fukuda, Jun'ichi; Kumazawa, Takao; Nakagawa, Shigeki

    2016-04-25

    The earthquake nucleation process has been vigorously investigated based on geophysical observations, laboratory experiments, and theoretical studies; however, a general consensus has yet to be achieved. Here, we studied nucleation process for the 2014 Iquique, Chile Mw 8.2 megathrust earthquake located within the current North Chile seismic gap, by analyzing a long-term earthquake catalog constructed from a cross-correlation detector using continuous seismic data. Accelerations in seismicity, the amount of aseismic slip inferred from repeating earthquakes, and the background seismicity, accompanied by an increasing frequency of earthquake migrations, started around 270 days before the mainshock at locations up-dip of the largest coseismic slip patch. These signals indicate that repetitive sequences of fast and slow slip took place on the plate interface at a transition zone between fully locked and creeping portions. We interpret that these different sliding modes interacted with each other and promoted accelerated unlocking of the plate interface during the nucleation phase.

  20. Accelerated nucleation of the 2014 Iquique, Chile Mw 8.2 Earthquake

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kato, Aitaro; Fukuda, Jun’ichi; Kumazawa, Takao; Nakagawa, Shigeki

    2016-01-01

    The earthquake nucleation process has been vigorously investigated based on geophysical observations, laboratory experiments, and theoretical studies; however, a general consensus has yet to be achieved. Here, we studied nucleation process for the 2014 Iquique, Chile Mw 8.2 megathrust earthquake located within the current North Chile seismic gap, by analyzing a long-term earthquake catalog constructed from a cross-correlation detector using continuous seismic data. Accelerations in seismicity, the amount of aseismic slip inferred from repeating earthquakes, and the background seismicity, accompanied by an increasing frequency of earthquake migrations, started around 270 days before the mainshock at locations up-dip of the largest coseismic slip patch. These signals indicate that repetitive sequences of fast and slow slip took place on the plate interface at a transition zone between fully locked and creeping portions. We interpret that these different sliding modes interacted with each other and promoted accelerated unlocking of the plate interface during the nucleation phase. PMID:27109362

  1. Permeability, storage and hydraulic diffusivity controlled by earthquakes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brodsky, E. E.; Fulton, P. M.; Xue, L.

    2016-12-01

    Earthquakes can increase permeability in fractured rocks. In the farfield, such permeability increases are attributed to seismic waves and can last for months after the initial earthquake. Laboratory studies suggest that unclogging of fractures by the transient flow driven by seismic waves is a viable mechanism. These dynamic permeability increases may contribute to permeability enhancement in the seismic clouds accompanying hydraulic fracking. Permeability enhancement by seismic waves could potentially be engineered and the experiments suggest the process will be most effective at a preferred frequency. We have recently observed similar processes inside active fault zones after major earthquakes. A borehole observatory in the fault that generated the M9.0 2011 Tohoku earthquake reveals a sequence of temperature pulses during the secondary aftershock sequence of an M7.3 aftershock. The pulses are attributed to fluid advection by a flow through a zone of transiently increased permeability. Directly after the M7.3 earthquake, the newly damaged fault zone is highly susceptible to further permeability enhancement, but ultimately heals within a month and becomes no longer as sensitive. The observation suggests that the newly damaged fault zone is more prone to fluid pulsing than would be expected based on the long-term permeability structure. Even longer term healing is seen inside the fault zone of the 2008 M7.9 Wenchuan earthquake. The competition between damage and healing (or clogging and unclogging) results in dynamically controlled permeability, storage and hydraulic diffusivity. Recent measurements of in situ fault zone architecture at the 1-10 meter scale suggest that active fault zones often have hydraulic diffusivities near 10-2 m2/s. This uniformity is true even within the damage zone of the San Andreas fault where permeability and storage increases balance each other to achieve this value of diffusivity over a 400 m wide region. We speculate that fault zones

  2. A Stochastical Model for the Earthquake Occurences in Turkey

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gamze ÖZEL

    2009-04-01

    Full Text Available The fields of seismology and earthquake engineering deal with the studies for earthquake predictions, hazard assessments and the prevention of possible damage due to destructive earthquakes. Various kind of statistical models are used for the earthquake occurences. The most familiar model is a Poisson process for random series of events. However, the Poisson process is insufficient if the incorporation of more information about the seismic process is required. Recently, a compound Poisson process has been proposed an alternative to the Poisson process for the earthquake analysis. In this study, the compound Poisson process is introduced and the probabilities of earthquake numbers with magnitude M ³ 5.0 which will occur within 3 and 6 months; 5 and 10 years have been obtained for Turkey from the Poisson process. Then, it is shown that the aftershock sequences follow a geometric distribution. By this way, the probabilities of total number of aftershocks which will occur within one year and two years with magnitude M ³ 4.0 in Turkey are obtained from the compound Poisson process. Finally, the expected values of main shocks and total number of aftershocks which will occur within one year and two years are computed. The results show that the earthquake occurrence probability with magnitude M ³ 5.0 increases, whereas the probability of total number of aftershocks with magnitude M ³ 4.0 decreases in Turkey as the time increases. Besides, the total aftershock number with magnitude M ³ 4.0 , after a main shock with magnitude M ³ 5.0, equals to zero with the probability 0.48 within one year. The findings also indicate that approximately 130 main shocks with M ³ 5.0 , 28 aftershocks with magnitude M ³ 4.0 are expected within 30 years in Turkey.

  3. Reply to 'Comment on 'Diffusion of epicenters of earthquake aftershocks, Omori's law, and generalized continuous-time random walk models''

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Helmstetter, A.; Sornette, D.

    2004-01-01

    Several methods have been proposed to study the spatiotemporal correlations between earthquakes. Marsan and co-workers proposed a method based on correlations between all earthquake pairs, without distinction between mainshock and aftershocks, and interpreted their results in terms of a space-time coupling in the triggering process between events. In contrast, we studied the diffusion of aftershocks by analyzing the average distance between a triggered event ('aftershock') and a previous large earthquake (the 'mainshock' which initiated the aftershock sequence). We reply to the comments of Marsan and Bean on our previous paper and discuss the applicability of both methods to unravel the spatiotemporal coupling of earthquake triggering processes

  4. The precursory earthquake swarm in Greece

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. Rhoades

    2000-06-01

    Full Text Available The Hellenic subduction region displays the same precursory swarm phenomenon as has been found in comparable regions of New Zealand and Japan. In the earthquake catalogue of the Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, 10 past sequences of precursory swarms and related major mainshock events have been identified. These correlate, in respect of location, magnitude and time, with the 9 sequences previously identified in New Zealand, and 9 in Japan, bringing the total of sequences to 28, and the totals of related events (allowing for clustering to 56 precursory swarms and 42 mainshock events. The results add strength to the hypothesis that swarms are long-range predictors of mainshock events. A close similarity between the swarm and aftershock magnitudes in a given sequence is also confirmed in Greece, supporting the proposal that swarms are an integral part of the seismogenic process in subduction regions. Further, the modelling of swarms as part of an overall increase in seismicity, the onset of which marks the onset of seismogenesis, is well illustrated from past sequences in Greece. Formal tests are being carried out in Greece, in parallel with New Zealand and Japan, to ascertain the performance of the hypothesis as a basis for long-range synoptic forecasting.

  5. Earthquakes Threaten Many American Schools

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bailey, Nancy E.

    2010-01-01

    Millions of U.S. children attend schools that are not safe from earthquakes, even though they are in earthquake-prone zones. Several cities and states have worked to identify and repair unsafe buildings, but many others have done little or nothing to fix the problem. The reasons for ignoring the problem include political and financial ones, but…

  6. Earthquake Preparedness Checklist for Schools.

    Science.gov (United States)

    1999

    A brochure provides a checklist highlighting the important questions and activities that should be addressed and undertaken as part of a school safety and preparedness program for earthquakes. It reminds administrators and other interested parties on what not to forget in preparing schools for earthquakes, such as staff knowledge needs, evacuation…

  7. Make an Earthquake: Ground Shaking!

    Science.gov (United States)

    Savasci, Funda

    2011-01-01

    The main purposes of this activity are to help students explore possible factors affecting the extent of the damage of earthquakes and learn the ways to reduce earthquake damages. In these inquiry-based activities, students have opportunities to develop science process skills and to build an understanding of the relationship among science,…

  8. Earthquake Loss Estimation Uncertainties

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frolova, Nina; Bonnin, Jean; Larionov, Valery; Ugarov, Aleksander

    2013-04-01

    The paper addresses the reliability issues of strong earthquakes loss assessment following strong earthquakes with worldwide Systems' application in emergency mode. Timely and correct action just after an event can result in significant benefits in saving lives. In this case the information about possible damage and expected number of casualties is very critical for taking decision about search, rescue operations and offering humanitarian assistance. Such rough information may be provided by, first of all, global systems, in emergency mode. The experience of earthquakes disasters in different earthquake-prone countries shows that the officials who are in charge of emergency response at national and international levels are often lacking prompt and reliable information on the disaster scope. Uncertainties on the parameters used in the estimation process are numerous and large: knowledge about physical phenomena and uncertainties on the parameters used to describe them; global adequacy of modeling techniques to the actual physical phenomena; actual distribution of population at risk at the very time of the shaking (with respect to immediate threat: buildings or the like); knowledge about the source of shaking, etc. Needless to be a sharp specialist to understand, for example, that the way a given building responds to a given shaking obeys mechanical laws which are poorly known (if not out of the reach of engineers for a large portion of the building stock); if a carefully engineered modern building is approximately predictable, this is far not the case for older buildings which make up the bulk of inhabited buildings. The way population, inside the buildings at the time of shaking, is affected by the physical damage caused to the buildings is not precisely known, by far. The paper analyzes the influence of uncertainties in strong event parameters determination by Alert Seismological Surveys, of simulation models used at all stages from, estimating shaking intensity

  9. Generation of earthquake signals

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kjell, G.

    1994-01-01

    Seismic verification can be performed either as a full scale test on a shaker table or as numerical calculations. In both cases it is necessary to have an earthquake acceleration time history. This report describes generation of such time histories by filtering white noise. Analogue and digital filtering methods are compared. Different methods of predicting the response spectrum of a white noise signal filtered by a band-pass filter are discussed. Prediction of both the average response level and the statistical variation around this level are considered. Examples with both the IEEE 301 standard response spectrum and a ground spectrum suggested for Swedish nuclear power stations are included in the report

  10. Earthquake Catalogue of the Caucasus

    Science.gov (United States)

    Godoladze, T.; Gok, R.; Tvaradze, N.; Tumanova, N.; Gunia, I.; Onur, T.

    2016-12-01

    The Caucasus has a documented historical catalog stretching back to the beginning of the Christian era. Most of the largest historical earthquakes prior to the 19th century are assumed to have occurred on active faults of the Greater Caucasus. Important earthquakes include the Samtskhe earthquake of 1283 (Ms˜7.0, Io=9); Lechkhumi-Svaneti earthquake of 1350 (Ms˜7.0, Io=9); and the Alaverdi earthquake of 1742 (Ms˜6.8, Io=9). Two significant historical earthquakes that may have occurred within the Javakheti plateau in the Lesser Caucasus are the Tmogvi earthquake of 1088 (Ms˜6.5, Io=9) and the Akhalkalaki earthquake of 1899 (Ms˜6.3, Io =8-9). Large earthquakes that occurred in the Caucasus within the period of instrumental observation are: Gori 1920; Tabatskuri 1940; Chkhalta 1963; Racha earthquake of 1991 (Ms=7.0), is the largest event ever recorded in the region; Barisakho earthquake of 1992 (M=6.5); Spitak earthquake of 1988 (Ms=6.9, 100 km south of Tbilisi), which killed over 50,000 people in Armenia. Recently, permanent broadband stations have been deployed across the region as part of the various national networks (Georgia (˜25 stations), Azerbaijan (˜35 stations), Armenia (˜14 stations)). The data from the last 10 years of observation provides an opportunity to perform modern, fundamental scientific investigations. In order to improve seismic data quality a catalog of all instrumentally recorded earthquakes has been compiled by the IES (Institute of Earth Sciences/NSMC, Ilia State University) in the framework of regional joint project (Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia, Turkey, USA) "Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment (PSHA) in the Caucasus. The catalogue consists of more then 80,000 events. First arrivals of each earthquake of Mw>=4.0 have been carefully examined. To reduce calculation errors, we corrected arrivals from the seismic records. We improved locations of the events and recalculate Moment magnitudes in order to obtain unified magnitude

  11. Testing earthquake source inversion methodologies

    KAUST Repository

    Page, Morgan T.

    2011-01-01

    Source Inversion Validation Workshop; Palm Springs, California, 11-12 September 2010; Nowadays earthquake source inversions are routinely performed after large earthquakes and represent a key connection between recorded seismic and geodetic data and the complex rupture process at depth. The resulting earthquake source models quantify the spatiotemporal evolution of ruptures. They are also used to provide a rapid assessment of the severity of an earthquake and to estimate losses. However, because of uncertainties in the data, assumed fault geometry and velocity structure, and chosen rupture parameterization, it is not clear which features of these source models are robust. Improved understanding of the uncertainty and reliability of earthquake source inversions will allow the scientific community to use the robust features of kinematic inversions to more thoroughly investigate the complexity of the rupture process and to better constrain other earthquakerelated computations, such as ground motion simulations and static stress change calculations.

  12. Early Earthquakes of the Americas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ni, James

    2004-11-01

    Robert Kovach's second book looks at the interplay of earthquake and volcanic events, archeology, and history in the Americas. Throughout history, major earthquakes have caused the deaths of millions of people and have damaged countless cities. Earthquakes undoubtedly damaged prehistoric cities in the Americas, and evidence of these events could be preserved in archeological records. Kovach asks, Did indigenous native cultures-Indians of the Pacific Northwest, Aztecs, Mayas, and Incas-document their natural history? Some events have been explicitly documented, for example, in Mayan codices, but many may have been recorded as myth and legend. Kovach's discussions of how early cultures dealt with fearful events such as earthquakes and volcanic eruptions are colorful, informative, and entertaining, and include, for example, a depiction of how the Maya would talk to maize plants in their fields during earthquakes to reassure them.

  13. Are Earthquakes a Critical Phenomenon?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ramos, O.

    2014-12-01

    Earthquakes, granular avalanches, superconducting vortices, solar flares, and even stock markets are known to evolve through power-law distributed events. During decades, the formalism of equilibrium phase transition has coined these phenomena as critical, which implies that they are also unpredictable. This work revises these ideas and uses earthquakes as the paradigm to demonstrate that slowly driven systems evolving through uncorrelated and power-law distributed avalanches (UPLA) are not necessarily critical systems, and therefore not necessarily unpredictable. By linking the correlation length to the pdf of the distribution, and comparing it with the one obtained at a critical point, a condition of criticality is introduced. Simulations in the classical Olami-Feder-Christensen (OFC) earthquake model confirm the findings, showing that earthquakes are not a critical phenomenon. However, one single catastrophic earthquake may show critical properties and, paradoxically, the emergence of this temporal critical behaviour may eventually carry precursory signs of catastrophic events.

  14. The smart cluster method. Adaptive earthquake cluster identification and analysis in strong seismic regions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schaefer, Andreas M.; Daniell, James E.; Wenzel, Friedemann

    2017-07-01

    Earthquake clustering is an essential part of almost any statistical analysis of spatial and temporal properties of seismic activity. The nature of earthquake clusters and subsequent declustering of earthquake catalogues plays a crucial role in determining the magnitude-dependent earthquake return period and its respective spatial variation for probabilistic seismic hazard assessment. This study introduces the Smart Cluster Method (SCM), a new methodology to identify earthquake clusters, which uses an adaptive point process for spatio-temporal cluster identification. It utilises the magnitude-dependent spatio-temporal earthquake density to adjust the search properties, subsequently analyses the identified clusters to determine directional variation and adjusts its search space with respect to directional properties. In the case of rapid subsequent ruptures like the 1992 Landers sequence or the 2010-2011 Darfield-Christchurch sequence, a reclassification procedure is applied to disassemble subsequent ruptures using near-field searches, nearest neighbour classification and temporal splitting. The method is capable of identifying and classifying earthquake clusters in space and time. It has been tested and validated using earthquake data from California and New Zealand. A total of more than 1500 clusters have been found in both regions since 1980 with M m i n = 2.0. Utilising the knowledge of cluster classification, the method has been adjusted to provide an earthquake declustering algorithm, which has been compared to existing methods. Its performance is comparable to established methodologies. The analysis of earthquake clustering statistics lead to various new and updated correlation functions, e.g. for ratios between mainshock and strongest aftershock and general aftershock activity metrics.

  15. Geophysical setting of the February 21, 2008 Mw 6 Wells earthquake, Nevada, and implications for earthquake hazards

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ponce, David A.; Watt, Janet T.; Bouligand, C.

    2011-01-01

    We utilize gravity and magnetic methods to investigate the regional geophysical setting of the Wells earthquake. In particular, we delineate major crustal structures that may have played a role in the location of the earthquake and discuss the geometry of a nearby sedimentary basin that may have contributed to observed ground shaking. The February 21, 2008 Mw 6.0 Wells earthquake, centered about 10 km northeast of Wells, Nevada, caused considerable damage to local buildings, especially in the historic old town area. The earthquake occurred on a previously unmapped normal fault and preliminary relocated events indicate a fault plane dipping about 55 degrees to the southeast. The epicenter lies near the intersection of major Basin and Range normal faults along the Ruby Mountains and Snake Mountains, and strike-slip faults in the southern Snake Mountains. Regionally, the Wells earthquake epicenter is aligned with a crustal-scale boundary along the edge of a basement gravity high that correlates to the Ruby Mountains fault zone. The Wells earthquake also occurred near a geophysically defined strike-slip fault that offsets buried plutonic rocks by about 30 km. In addition, a new depth-to-basement map, derived from the inversion of gravity data, indicates that the Wells earthquake and most of its associated aftershock sequence lie below a small oval- to rhomboid-shaped basin, that reaches a depth of about 2 km. Although the basin is of limited areal extent, it could have contributed to increased ground shaking in the vicinity of the city of Wells, Nevada, due to basin amplification of seismic waves.

  16. The CATDAT damaging earthquakes database

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. E. Daniell

    2011-08-01

    Full Text Available The global CATDAT damaging earthquakes and secondary effects (tsunami, fire, landslides, liquefaction and fault rupture database was developed to validate, remove discrepancies, and expand greatly upon existing global databases; and to better understand the trends in vulnerability, exposure, and possible future impacts of such historic earthquakes.

    Lack of consistency and errors in other earthquake loss databases frequently cited and used in analyses was a major shortcoming in the view of the authors which needed to be improved upon.

    Over 17 000 sources of information have been utilised, primarily in the last few years, to present data from over 12 200 damaging earthquakes historically, with over 7000 earthquakes since 1900 examined and validated before insertion into the database. Each validated earthquake includes seismological information, building damage, ranges of social losses to account for varying sources (deaths, injuries, homeless, and affected, and economic losses (direct, indirect, aid, and insured.

    Globally, a slightly increasing trend in economic damage due to earthquakes is not consistent with the greatly increasing exposure. The 1923 Great Kanto ($214 billion USD damage; 2011 HNDECI-adjusted dollars compared to the 2011 Tohoku (>$300 billion USD at time of writing, 2008 Sichuan and 1995 Kobe earthquakes show the increasing concern for economic loss in urban areas as the trend should be expected to increase. Many economic and social loss values not reported in existing databases have been collected. Historical GDP (Gross Domestic Product, exchange rate, wage information, population, HDI (Human Development Index, and insurance information have been collected globally to form comparisons.

    This catalogue is the largest known cross-checked global historic damaging earthquake database and should have far-reaching consequences for earthquake loss estimation, socio-economic analysis, and the global

  17. The CATDAT damaging earthquakes database

    Science.gov (United States)

    Daniell, J. E.; Khazai, B.; Wenzel, F.; Vervaeck, A.

    2011-08-01

    The global CATDAT damaging earthquakes and secondary effects (tsunami, fire, landslides, liquefaction and fault rupture) database was developed to validate, remove discrepancies, and expand greatly upon existing global databases; and to better understand the trends in vulnerability, exposure, and possible future impacts of such historic earthquakes. Lack of consistency and errors in other earthquake loss databases frequently cited and used in analyses was a major shortcoming in the view of the authors which needed to be improved upon. Over 17 000 sources of information have been utilised, primarily in the last few years, to present data from over 12 200 damaging earthquakes historically, with over 7000 earthquakes since 1900 examined and validated before insertion into the database. Each validated earthquake includes seismological information, building damage, ranges of social losses to account for varying sources (deaths, injuries, homeless, and affected), and economic losses (direct, indirect, aid, and insured). Globally, a slightly increasing trend in economic damage due to earthquakes is not consistent with the greatly increasing exposure. The 1923 Great Kanto (214 billion USD damage; 2011 HNDECI-adjusted dollars) compared to the 2011 Tohoku (>300 billion USD at time of writing), 2008 Sichuan and 1995 Kobe earthquakes show the increasing concern for economic loss in urban areas as the trend should be expected to increase. Many economic and social loss values not reported in existing databases have been collected. Historical GDP (Gross Domestic Product), exchange rate, wage information, population, HDI (Human Development Index), and insurance information have been collected globally to form comparisons. This catalogue is the largest known cross-checked global historic damaging earthquake database and should have far-reaching consequences for earthquake loss estimation, socio-economic analysis, and the global reinsurance field.

  18. Short- and Long-Term Earthquake Forecasts Based on Statistical Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Console, Rodolfo; Taroni, Matteo; Murru, Maura; Falcone, Giuseppe; Marzocchi, Warner

    2017-04-01

    The epidemic-type aftershock sequences (ETAS) models have been experimentally used to forecast the space-time earthquake occurrence rate during the sequence that followed the 2009 L'Aquila earthquake and for the 2012 Emilia earthquake sequence. These forecasts represented the two first pioneering attempts to check the feasibility of providing operational earthquake forecasting (OEF) in Italy. After the 2009 L'Aquila earthquake the Italian Department of Civil Protection nominated an International Commission on Earthquake Forecasting (ICEF) for the development of the first official OEF in Italy that was implemented for testing purposes by the newly established "Centro di Pericolosità Sismica" (CPS, the seismic Hazard Center) at the Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV). According to the ICEF guidelines, the system is open, transparent, reproducible and testable. The scientific information delivered by OEF-Italy is shaped in different formats according to the interested stakeholders, such as scientists, national and regional authorities, and the general public. The communication to people is certainly the most challenging issue, and careful pilot tests are necessary to check the effectiveness of the communication strategy, before opening the information to the public. With regard to long-term time-dependent earthquake forecast, the application of a newly developed simulation algorithm to Calabria region provided typical features in time, space and magnitude behaviour of the seismicity, which can be compared with those of the real observations. These features include long-term pseudo-periodicity and clustering of strong earthquakes, and a realistic earthquake magnitude distribution departing from the Gutenberg-Richter distribution in the moderate and higher magnitude range.

  19. Leveraging geodetic data to reduce losses from earthquakes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Murray, Jessica R.; Roeloffs, Evelyn A.; Brooks, Benjamin A.; Langbein, John O.; Leith, William S.; Minson, Sarah E.; Svarc, Jerry L.; Thatcher, Wayne R.

    2018-04-23

    event response products and by expanded use of geodetic imaging data to assess fault rupture and source parameters.Uncertainties in the NSHM, and in regional earthquake models, are reduced by fully incorporating geodetic data into earthquake probability calculations.Geodetic networks and data are integrated into the operations and earthquake information products of the Advanced National Seismic System (ANSS).Earthquake early warnings are improved by more rapidly assessing ground displacement and the dynamic faulting process for the largest earthquakes using real-time geodetic data.Methodology for probabilistic earthquake forecasting is refined by including geodetic data when calculating evolving moment release during aftershock sequences and by better understanding the implications of transient deformation for earthquake likelihood.A geodesy program that encompasses a balanced mix of activities to sustain missioncritical capabilities, grows new competencies through the continuum of fundamental to applied research, and ensures sufficient resources for these endeavors provides a foundation by which the EHP can be a leader in the application of geodesy to earthquake science. With this in mind the following objectives provide a framework to guide EHP efforts:Fully utilize geodetic information to improve key products, such as the NSHM and EEW, and to address new ventures like the USGS Subduction Zone Science Plan.Expand the variety, accuracy, and timeliness of post-earthquake information products, such as PAGER (Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response), through incorporation of geodetic observations.Determine if geodetic measurements of transient deformation can significantly improve estimates of earthquake probability.Maintain an observational strategy aligned with the target outcomes of this document that includes continuous monitoring, recording of ephemeral observations, focused data collection for use in research, and application-driven data processing and

  20. Instrumental seismicity of the Amatrice earthquake epicentral area: a review

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maria Grazia Ciaccio

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available This study presents a review of the instrumental seismicity of the Norcia-Amatrice area (central Italy where a still on-going seismic sequence started on August 24th 2016 with a Mw6.0 earthquake. The review is based on the analysis of the seismic catalogs 1981-2016, the CMT (Centroid Moment Tensor solutions and the TDMT (Time Domain Moment Tensor solutions, dividing the area into three regions based on the main seismic sequences preceding the Amatrice 2016 mainshock. The seismicity of this region is characterized by different types of activity: single events, minor sequences and swarms with hypocenters within the upper 15 km of the crust. Small-magnitude seismic sequences on March 2007 with maximum Mw3.9, and one earthquake on March 2012, Mw37, not followed by significant seismicity, affected the area east of the Norcia, close to the Mw 5.4 aftershock of the Amatrice 2016 sequence. In the central area, near Accumoli, and in the southern sector close to Amatrice, minor seismic sequences occurred on February 2014 Ml3.5 and on November 2013 Mw3.7 respectively. We integrated hypocentral locations and fault plane solutions to give a first look at the main features of the instrumental seismicity compared to the present seismic sequence in order to relate the seismicity patterns to seismogenic structures of this area of the central Italy.

  1. Surface-Wave Relocation of Remote Continental Earthquakes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kintner, J. A.; Ammon, C. J.; Cleveland, M.

    2017-12-01

    Accurate hypocenter locations are essential for seismic event analysis. Single-event location estimation methods provide relatively imprecise results in remote regions with few nearby seismic stations. Previous work has demonstrated that improved relative epicentroid precision in oceanic environments is obtainable using surface-wave cross correlation measurements. We use intermediate-period regional and teleseismic Rayleigh and Love waves to estimate relative epicentroid locations of moderately-sized seismic events in regions around Iran. Variations in faulting geometry, depth, and intermediate-period dispersion make surface-wave based event relocation challenging across this broad continental region. We compare and integrate surface-wave based relative locations with InSAR centroid location estimates. However, mapping an earthquake sequence mainshock to an InSAR fault deformation model centroid is not always a simple process, since the InSAR observations are sensitive to post-seismic deformation. We explore these ideas using earthquake sequences in western Iran. We also apply surface-wave relocation to smaller magnitude earthquakes (3.5 wave dispersion. Frequency-domain inter-event phase observations are used to understand the time-domain cross-correlation information, and to choose the appropriate band for applications using shorter periods. Over short inter-event distances, the changing group velocity does not strongly degrade the relative locations. For small-magnitude seismic events in continental regions, surface-wave relocation does not appear simple enough to allow broad routine application, but using this method to analyze individual earthquake sequences can provide valuable insight into earthquake and faulting processes.

  2. Experience of short term earthquake precursors with VLF–VHF electromagnetic emissions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. Eftaxias

    2003-01-01

    Full Text Available Electromagnetic anomalies (EMA covering a wide range of frequencies from ULF, VLF up to VHF have been observed before recent destructive earthquakes in continental Greece. We show that the features of these signals are possibly correlated with the fault model characteristics of the associated earthquake and with the degree of geotectonic heterogeneity within the focal zone. The time evolution of these electromagnetic sequences reveals striking similarities to that observed in laboratory acoustic and electromagnetic emissions during different stages of failure preparation process in rocks. If we consider that the same dynamics governs the large-scale earthquakes and the microscopic scale sample rheological structure, the results of this analysis suggest that the recorded EMA might reflect the nucleation phase of the associated impending earthquake. We focus on the rise of the statistical view of earthquakes. We find electro-magnetic fingerprints of an underlying critical mechanism. Finally, we conclude that it is useful to combine ULF and VLF-VHF field measurements in an attempt to enhance the understanding of the physics behind these observations and thus to improve the quality of earthquake prediction. Further, the identification of an EMA as a seismogenic one supports the characterization of a sequence of shocks as foreshocks at the time they occur, further helping the earthquake prediction effort.

  3. A preliminary evaluation of surface latent heat flux as an earthquake precursor

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    W. Zhang

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available The relationship between variations in surface latent heat flux (SLHF and marine earthquakes has been a popular subject of recent seismological studies. So far, there are two key problems: how to identify the abnormal SLHF variations from complicated background signals, and how to ensure that the anomaly results from an earthquake. In this paper, we proposed four adjustable parameters for identification, classified the relationship and analyzed SLHF changes several months before six marine earthquakes by employing daily SLHF data. Additionally, we also quantitatively evaluate the long-term relationship between earthquakes and SLHF anomalies for the six study areas over a 20 yr period preceding each earthquake. The results suggest the following: (1 before the South Sandwich Islands, Papua, Samoa and Haiti earthquakes, the SLHF variations above their individual background levels have relatively low amplitudes and are difficult to be considered as precursory anomalies; (2 after removing the clustering effect, most of the anomalies prior to these six earthquakes are not temporally related to any earthquake in each study area in time sequence; (3 for each case, apart from Haiti, more than half of the studied earthquakes, which were moderate and even devastating earthquakes (larger than Mw = 5.3, had no precursory variations in SLHF; and (4 the correlation between SLHF and seismic activity depends largely on data accuracy and parameter settings. Before any application of SLHF data on earthquake prediction, we suggest that anomaly-identifying standards should be established based on long-term regional analysis to eliminate subjectivity. Furthermore, other factors that may result in SLHF variations should also be carefully considered.

  4. Non-Stationary Modelling and Simulation of Near-Source Earthquake Ground Motion

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Skjærbæk, P. S.; Kirkegaard, Poul Henning; Fouskitakis, G. N.

    This paper is concerned with modelling and simulation of near-source earthquake ground motion. Recent studies have revealed that these motions show heavy non-stationary behaviour with very low frequencies dominating parts of the earthquake sequence. Modelling and simulation of this behaviour...... by an epicentral distance of 16 km and measured during the 1979 Imperial valley earthquake in California (USA). The results of the study indicate that while all three approaches can succesfully predict near-source ground motions, the Neural Network based one gives somewhat poorer simulation results....

  5. Non-Stationary Modelling and Simulation of Near-Source Earthquake Ground Motion

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Skjærbæk, P. S.; Kirkegaard, Poul Henning; Fouskitakis, G. N.

    1997-01-01

    This paper is concerned with modelling and simulation of near-source earthquake ground motion. Recent studies have revealed that these motions show heavy non-stationary behaviour with very low frequencies dominating parts of the earthquake sequence. Modeling and simulation of this behaviour...... by an epicentral distance of 16 km and measured during the 1979 Imperial Valley earthquake in California (U .S .A.). The results of the study indicate that while all three approaches can successfully predict near-source ground motions, the Neural Network based one gives somewhat poorer simulation results....

  6. Earthquake Emergency Education in Dushanbe, Tajikistan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mohadjer, Solmaz; Bendick, Rebecca; Halvorson, Sarah J.; Saydullaev, Umed; Hojiboev, Orifjon; Stickler, Christine; Adam, Zachary R.

    2010-01-01

    We developed a middle school earthquake science and hazards curriculum to promote earthquake awareness to students in the Central Asian country of Tajikistan. These materials include pre- and post-assessment activities, six science activities describing physical processes related to earthquakes, five activities on earthquake hazards and mitigation…

  7. Determination of Design Basis Earthquake ground motion

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kato, Muneaki

    1997-01-01

    This paper describes principle of determining of Design Basis Earthquake following the Examination Guide, some examples on actual sites including earthquake sources to be considered, earthquake response spectrum and simulated seismic waves. In sppendix of this paper, furthermore, seismic safety review for N.P.P designed before publication of the Examination Guide was summarized with Check Basis Earthquake. (J.P.N.)

  8. Determination of Design Basis Earthquake ground motion

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kato, Muneaki [Japan Atomic Power Co., Tokyo (Japan)

    1997-03-01

    This paper describes principle of determining of Design Basis Earthquake following the Examination Guide, some examples on actual sites including earthquake sources to be considered, earthquake response spectrum and simulated seismic waves. In sppendix of this paper, furthermore, seismic safety review for N.P.P designed before publication of the Examination Guide was summarized with Check Basis Earthquake. (J.P.N.)

  9. Modeling Seismic Cycles of Great Megathrust Earthquakes Across the Scales With Focus at Postseismic Phase

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sobolev, Stephan V.; Muldashev, Iskander A.

    2017-12-01

    Subduction is substantially multiscale process where the stresses are built by long-term tectonic motions, modified by sudden jerky deformations during earthquakes, and then restored by following multiple relaxation processes. Here we develop a cross-scale thermomechanical model aimed to simulate the subduction process from 1 min to million years' time scale. The model employs elasticity, nonlinear transient viscous rheology, and rate-and-state friction. It generates spontaneous earthquake sequences and by using an adaptive time step algorithm, recreates the deformation process as observed naturally during the seismic cycle and multiple seismic cycles. The model predicts that viscosity in the mantle wedge drops by more than three orders of magnitude during the great earthquake with a magnitude above 9. As a result, the surface velocities just an hour or day after the earthquake are controlled by viscoelastic relaxation in the several hundred km of mantle landward of the trench and not by the afterslip localized at the fault as is currently believed. Our model replicates centuries-long seismic cycles exhibited by the greatest earthquakes and is consistent with the postseismic surface displacements recorded after the Great Tohoku Earthquake. We demonstrate that there is no contradiction between extremely low mechanical coupling at the subduction megathrust in South Chile inferred from long-term geodynamic models and appearance of the largest earthquakes, like the Great Chile 1960 Earthquake.

  10. Automatic sequences

    CERN Document Server

    Haeseler, Friedrich

    2003-01-01

    Automatic sequences are sequences which are produced by a finite automaton. Although they are not random they may look as being random. They are complicated, in the sense of not being not ultimately periodic, they may look rather complicated, in the sense that it may not be easy to name the rule by which the sequence is generated, however there exists a rule which generates the sequence. The concept automatic sequences has special applications in algebra, number theory, finite automata and formal languages, combinatorics on words. The text deals with different aspects of automatic sequences, in particular:· a general introduction to automatic sequences· the basic (combinatorial) properties of automatic sequences· the algebraic approach to automatic sequences· geometric objects related to automatic sequences.

  11. Designing plants to withstand earthquakes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nedderman, J.

    1995-01-01

    The approach used in Japan to design nuclear plants capable of withstanding earthquakes is described. Earthquakes are classified into two types S 1 and S 2 . In an S 1 earthquake a nuclear plant must be capable of surviving essentially undamaged. In the more severe S 2 earthquake, some damage may occur but there should be no release of radioactivity to the outside world. The starting point for the designer is the ground response spectrum of the earthquake which shows both the ground acceleration and the frequencies of the vibrations. From the ground response spectra synthetic seismic waves for S 1 and S 2 earthquakes are developed which can then be used to analyse a ''lumped-mass'' model of the reactor building to arrive at floor response spectra. These spectra are then used in further analyses of the design of reactor equipment, piping systems and instrument racks and supports. When a plant is constructed, results from tests with a vibration exciter are used to verify the floor response spectra and principle building resonances. Much of the equipment can be tested on vibrating tables. One large table with a maximum loading capacity of 1000 t is used to test large-scale models of containment vessels, pressure vessels and steam generators. Such tests have shown that the plants have considerable safety margins in their ability to withstand the design basis earthquakes. (UK)

  12. Ionospheric phenomena before strong earthquakes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. S. Silina

    2001-01-01

    Full Text Available A statistical analysis of several ionospheric parameters before earthquakes with magnitude M > 5.5 located less than 500 km from an ionospheric vertical sounding station is performed. Ionospheric effects preceding "deep" (depth h > 33 km and "crust" (h 33 km earthquakes were analysed separately. Data of nighttime measurements of the critical frequencies foF2 and foEs, the frequency fbEs and Es-spread at the middle latitude station Dushanbe were used. The frequencies foF2 and fbEs are proportional to the square root of the ionization density at heights of 300 km and 100 km, respectively. It is shown that two days before the earthquakes the values of foF2 averaged over the morning hours (00:00 LT–06:00 LT and of fbEs averaged over the nighttime hours (18:00 LT–06:00 LT decrease; the effect is stronger for the "deep" earthquakes. Analysing the coefficient of semitransparency which characterizes the degree of small-scale turbulence, it was shown that this value increases 1–4 days before "crust" earthquakes, and it does not change before "deep" earthquakes. Studying Es-spread which manifests itself as diffuse Es track on ionograms and characterizes the degree of large-scale turbulence, it was found that the number of Es-spread observations increases 1–3 days before the earthquakes; for "deep" earthquakes the effect is more intensive. Thus it may be concluded that different mechanisms of energy transfer from the region of earthquake preparation to the ionosphere occur for "deep" and "crust" events.

  13. Fracking, wastewater disposal, and earthquakes

    Science.gov (United States)

    McGarr, Arthur

    2016-03-01

    In the modern oil and gas industry, fracking of low-permeability reservoirs has resulted in a considerable increase in the production of oil and natural gas, but these fluid-injection activities also can induce earthquakes. Earthquakes induced by fracking are an inevitable consequence of the injection of fluid at high pressure, where the intent is to enhance permeability by creating a system of cracks and fissures that allow hydrocarbons to flow to the borehole. The micro-earthquakes induced during these highly-controlled procedures are generally much too small to be felt at the surface; indeed, the creation or reactivation of a large fault would be contrary to the goal of enhancing permeability evenly throughout the formation. Accordingly, the few case histories for which fracking has resulted in felt earthquakes have been due to unintended fault reactivation. Of greater consequence for inducing earthquakes, modern techniques for producing hydrocarbons, including fracking, have resulted in considerable quantities of coproduced wastewater, primarily formation brines. This wastewater is commonly disposed by injection into deep aquifers having high permeability and porosity. As reported in many case histories, pore pressure increases due to wastewater injection were channeled from the target aquifers into fault zones that were, in effect, lubricated, resulting in earthquake slip. These fault zones are often located in the brittle crystalline rocks in the basement. Magnitudes of earthquakes induced by wastewater disposal often exceed 4, the threshold for structural damage. Even though only a small fraction of disposal wells induce earthquakes large enough to be of concern to the public, there are so many of these wells that this source of seismicity contributes significantly to the seismic hazard in the United States, especially east of the Rocky Mountains where standards of building construction are generally not designed to resist shaking from large earthquakes.

  14. From Multi-Sensors Observations Towards Cross-Disciplinary Study of Pre-Earthquake Signals. What have We Learned from the Tohoku Earthquake?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ouzounov, D.; Pulinets, S.; Papadopoulos, G.; Kunitsyn, V.; Nesterov, I.; Hayakawa, M.; Mogi, K.; Hattori, K.; Kafatos, M.; Taylor, P.

    2012-01-01

    The lessons we have learned from the Great Tohoku EQ (Japan, 2011) how this knowledge will affect our future observation and analysis is the main focus of this presentation.We present multi-sensors observations and multidisciplinary research in our investigation of phenomena preceding major earthquakes. These observations revealed the existence of atmospheric and ionospheric phenomena occurring prior to theM9.0 Tohoku earthquake of March 11, 2011, which indicates s new evidence of a distinct coupling between the lithosphere and atmosphere/ionosphere, as related to underlying tectonic activity. Similar results have been reported before the catastrophic events in Chile (M8.8, 2010), Italy (M6.3, 2009) and Sumatra (M9.3, 2004). For the Tohoku earthquake, our analysis shows a synergy between several independent observations characterizing the state of the lithosphere /atmosphere coupling several days before the onset of the earthquakes, namely: (i) Foreshock sequence change (rate, space and time); (ii) Outgoing Long wave Radiation (OLR) measured at the top of the atmosphere; and (iii) Anomalous variations of ionospheric parameters revealed by multi-sensors observations. We are presenting a cross-disciplinary analysis of the observed pre-earthquake anomalies and will discuss current research in the detection of these signals in Japan. We expect that our analysis will shed light on the underlying physics of pre-earthquake signals associated with some of the largest earthquake events

  15. Earthquakes, July-August 1992

    Science.gov (United States)

    Person, W.J.

    1992-01-01

    There were two major earthquakes (7.0≤Mearthquake occurred in Kyrgyzstan on August 19 and a magnitude 7.0 quake struck the Ascension Island region on August 28. In southern California, aftershocks of the magnitude 7.6 earthquake on June 28, 1992, continued. One of these aftershocks caused damage and injuries, and at least one other aftershock caused additional damage. Earthquake-related fatalities were reportred in Kyrgzstan and Pakistan. 

  16. Earthquake Zoning Maps of Turkey

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pampal, S.

    2007-01-01

    Earthquake Zoning Maps (1945, 1947, 1963, 1972 and 1996) and Specifications for Construction in Disaster Areas (1947, 1953, 1962, 1968, 1975, 1996, 1997 and 2006) have been changed many times following the developments in engineering seismology, tectonic and seismo-tectonic invention and improved earthquake data collection. The aim of this study is to give information about this maps, which come into force at different dates since the introduction of the firs official Earthquake Zoning Map published in 1945 and is to assist for better understanding of the development phases of these maps

  17. Seismology: dynamic triggering of earthquakes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gomberg, Joan; Johnson, Paul

    2005-10-06

    After an earthquake, numerous smaller shocks are triggered over distances comparable to the dimensions of the mainshock fault rupture, although they are rare at larger distances. Here we analyse the scaling of dynamic deformations (the stresses and strains associated with seismic waves) with distance from, and magnitude of, their triggering earthquake, and show that they can cause further earthquakes at any distance if their amplitude exceeds several microstrain, regardless of their frequency content. These triggering requirements are remarkably similar to those measured in the laboratory for inducing dynamic elastic nonlinear behaviour, which suggests that the underlying physics is similar.

  18. USGS Earthquake Program GPS Use Case : Earthquake Early Warning

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-03-12

    USGS GPS receiver use case. Item 1 - High Precision User (federal agency with Stafford Act hazard alert responsibilities for earthquakes, volcanoes and landslides nationwide). Item 2 - Description of Associated GPS Application(s): The USGS Eart...

  19. Foreshocks and aftershocks locations of the 2014 Pisagua, N. Chile earthquake: history of a megathrust earthquake nucleation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fuenzalida Velasco, Amaya; Rietbrock, Andreas; Tavera, Hernando; Ryder, Isabelle; Ruiz, Sergio; Thomas, Reece; De Angelis, Silvio; Bondoux, Francis

    2015-04-01

    The April 2014 Mw 8.1 Pisagua earthquake occurred in the Northern Chile seismic gap: a region of the South American subduction zone lying between Arica city and the Mejillones Peninsula. It is believed that this part of the subduction zone has not experienced a large earthquake since 1877. Thanks to the identification of this seismic gap, the north of Chile was well instrumented before the Pisagua earthquake, including the Integrated Plate boundary Observatory Chile (IPOC) network and the Chilean local network installed by the Centro Sismologico Nacional (CSN). These instruments were able to record the full foreshock and aftershock sequences, allowing a unique opportunity to study the nucleation process of large megathrust earthquakes. To improve azimuthal coverage of the Pisagua seismic sequence, after the earthquake, in collaboration with the Instituto Geofisico del Peru (IGP) we installed a temporary seismic network in south of Peru. The network comprised 12 short-period stations located in the coastal area between Moquegua and Tacna and they were operative from 1st May 2014. We also installed three stations on the slopes of the Ticsiani volcano to monitor any possible change in volcanic activity following the Pisagua earthquake. In this work we analysed the continuous seismic data recorded by CSN and IPOC networks from 1 March to 30 June to obtain the catalogue of the sequence, including foreshocks and aftershocks. Using an automatic algorithm based in STA/LTA we obtained the picks for P and S waves. Association in time and space defined the events and computed an initial location using Hypo71 and the 1D local velocity model. More than 11,000 events were identified with this method for the whole period, but we selected the best resolved events that include more than 7 observed arrivals with at least 2 S picks of them, to relocate these events using NonLinLoc software. For the main events of the sequence we carefully estimate event locations and we obtained

  20. Detection of change points in underlying earthquake rates, with application to global mega-earthquakes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Touati, Sarah; Naylor, Mark; Main, Ian

    2016-02-01

    The recent spate of mega-earthquakes since 2004 has led to speculation of an underlying change in the global `background' rate of large events. At a regional scale, detecting changes in background rate is also an important practical problem for operational forecasting and risk calculation, for example due to volcanic processes, seismicity induced by fluid injection or withdrawal, or due to redistribution of Coulomb stress after natural large events. Here we examine the general problem of detecting changes in background rate in earthquake catalogues with and without correlated events, for the first time using the Bayes factor as a discriminant for models of varying complexity. First we use synthetic Poisson (purely random) and Epidemic-Type Aftershock Sequence (ETAS) models (which also allow for earthquake triggering) to test the effectiveness of many standard methods of addressing this question. These fall into two classes: those that evaluate the relative likelihood of different models, for example using Information Criteria or the Bayes Factor; and those that evaluate the probability of the observations (including extreme events or clusters of events) under a single null hypothesis, for example by applying the Kolmogorov-Smirnov and `runs' tests, and a variety of Z-score tests. The results demonstrate that the effectiveness among these tests varies widely. Information Criteria worked at least as well as the more computationally expensive Bayes factor method, and the Kolmogorov-Smirnov and runs tests proved to be the relatively ineffective in reliably detecting a change point. We then apply the methods tested to events at different thresholds above magnitude M ≥ 7 in the global earthquake catalogue since 1918, after first declustering the catalogue. This is most effectively done by removing likely correlated events using a much lower magnitude threshold (M ≥ 5), where triggering is much more obvious. We find no strong evidence that the background rate of large

  1. Twitter earthquake detection: Earthquake monitoring in a social world

    Science.gov (United States)

    Earle, Paul S.; Bowden, Daniel C.; Guy, Michelle R.

    2011-01-01

    The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) is investigating how the social networking site Twitter, a popular service for sending and receiving short, public text messages, can augment USGS earthquake response products and the delivery of hazard information. Rapid detection and qualitative assessment of shaking events are possible because people begin sending public Twitter messages (tweets) with in tens of seconds after feeling shaking. Here we present and evaluate an earthquake detection procedure that relies solely on Twitter data. A tweet-frequency time series constructed from tweets containing the word "earthquake" clearly shows large peaks correlated with the origin times of widely felt events. To identify possible earthquakes, we use a short-term-average, long-term-average algorithm. When tuned to a moderate sensitivity, the detector finds 48 globally-distributed earthquakes with only two false triggers in five months of data. The number of detections is small compared to the 5,175 earthquakes in the USGS global earthquake catalog for the same five-month time period, and no accurate location or magnitude can be assigned based on tweet data alone. However, Twitter earthquake detections are not without merit. The detections are generally caused by widely felt events that are of more immediate interest than those with no human impact. The detections are also fast; about 75% occur within two minutes of the origin time. This is considerably faster than seismographic detections in poorly instrumented regions of the world. The tweets triggering the detections also provided very short first-impression narratives from people who experienced the shaking.

  2. Search for Anisotropy Changes Associated with Two Large Earthquakes in Japan and New Zealand

    Science.gov (United States)

    Savage, M. K.; Graham, K.; Aoki, Y.; Arnold, R.

    2017-12-01

    Seismic anisotropy is often considered to be an indicator of stress in the crust, because the closure of cracks due to differential stress leads to waves polarized parallel to the cracks travelling faster than the orthogonal direction. Changes in shear wave splitting have been suggested to result from stress changes at volcanoes and earthquakes. However, the effects of mineral or structural alignment, and the difficulty of distinguishing between changes in anisotropy along an earthquake-station path from distinguishing changes in the path itself, have made such findings controversial. Two large earthquakes in 2016 provide unique datasets to test the use of shear wave splitting for measuring variations in stress because clusters of closely-spaced earthquakes occurred both before and after a mainshock. We use the automatic, objective splitting analysis code MFAST to speed process and minimize unwitting observer bias when determining time variations. The sequence of earthquakes related to the M=7.2 Japanese Kumamoto earthquake of 14 April 2016 includes both foreshocks, mainshocks and aftershocks. The sequence was recorded by the NIED permanent network, which already contributed background seismic anisotropy measurements in a previous study of anisotropy and stress in Kyushu. Preliminary measurements of shear wave splitting from earthquakes that occurred in 2016 show results at some stations that clearly differ from those of the earlier study. They also change between earthquakes recorded before and after the mainshock. Further work is under way to determine whether the changes are more likely due to changes in stress during the observation time, or due to spatial changes in anisotropy combined with changes in earthquake locations. Likewise, background seismicity and also foreshocks and aftershocks in the 2013 Cook Strait earthquake sequence including two M=6.5 earthquakes in 2013 in New Zealand were in the same general region as aftershocks of the M=7.8 Kaikoura

  3. The GIS and analysis of earthquake damage distribution of the 1303 Hongtong M=8 earthquake

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gao, Meng-Tan; Jin, Xue-Shen; An, Wei-Ping; Lü, Xiao-Jian

    2004-07-01

    The geography information system of the 1303 Hongton M=8 earthquake has been established. Using the spatial analysis function of GIS, the spatial distribution characteristics of damage and isoseismal of the earthquake are studies. By comparing with the standard earthquake intensity attenuation relationship, the abnormal damage distribution of the earthquake is found, so the relationship of the abnormal distribution with tectonics, site condition and basin are analyzed. In this paper, the influence on the ground motion generated by earthquake source and the underground structures near source also are studied. The influence on seismic zonation, anti-earthquake design, earthquake prediction and earthquake emergency responding produced by the abnormal density distribution are discussed.

  4. Propagation of slow slip leading up to the 2011 M(w) 9.0 Tohoku-Oki earthquake.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kato, Aitaro; Obara, Kazushige; Igarashi, Toshihiro; Tsuruoka, Hiroshi; Nakagawa, Shigeki; Hirata, Naoshi

    2012-02-10

    Many large earthquakes are preceded by one or more foreshocks, but it is unclear how these foreshocks relate to the nucleation process of the mainshock. On the basis of an earthquake catalog created using a waveform correlation technique, we identified two distinct sequences of foreshocks migrating at rates of 2 to 10 kilometers per day along the trench axis toward the epicenter of the 2011 moment magnitude (M(w)) 9.0 Tohoku-Oki earthquake in Japan. The time history of quasi-static slip along the plate interface, based on small repeating earthquakes that were part of the migrating seismicity, suggests that two sequences involved slow-slip transients propagating toward the initial rupture point. The second sequence, which involved large slip rates, may have caused substantial stress loading, prompting the unstable dynamic rupture of the mainshock.

  5. Haiti Earthquake: Crisis and Response

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-02-19

    years ago, in 1860. Haitian ministries are addressing issues such as long-term housing for those left homeless by the earthquake as they operate out...CRS Report for Congress Prepared for Members and Committees of Congress Haiti Earthquake: Crisis and Response Rhoda Margesson... Crisis and Response 5a. CONTRACT NUMBER 5b. GRANT NUMBER 5c. PROGRAM ELEMENT NUMBER 6. AUTHOR(S) 5d. PROJECT NUMBER 5e. TASK NUMBER 5f. WORK

  6. Earthquake and nuclear explosion location using the global seismic network

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lopez, L.M.

    1983-01-01

    The relocation of nuclear explosions, aftershock sequence and regional seismicity is addressed by using joint hypocenter determination, Lomnitz' distance domain location, and origin time and earthquake depth determination with local observations. Distance domain and joint hypocenter location are used for a stepwise relocation of nuclear explosions in the USSR. The resulting origin times are 2.5 seconds earlier than those obtained by ISC. Local travel times from the relocated explosions are compared to Jeffreys-Bullen tables. P times are found to be faster at 9-30 0 distances, the largest deviation being around 10 seconds at 13-18 0 . At these distances S travel times also are faster by approximately 20 seconds. The 1977 Sumba earthquake sequence is relocated by iterative joint hypocenter determination of events with most station reports. Simultaneously determined station corrections are utilized for the relocation of smaller aftershocks. The relocated hypocenters indicate that the aftershocks were initially concentrated along the deep trench. Origin times and depths are recalculated for intermediate depth and deep earthquakes using local observations in and around the Japanese Islands. It is found that origin time and depth differ systematically from ISC values for intermediate depth events. Origin times obtained for events below the crust down to 100 km depth are earlier, whereas no general bias seem to exist for origin times of events in the 100-400 km depth range. The recalculated depths for earthquakes shallower than 100 km are shallower than ISC depths. The depth estimates for earthquakes deeper than 100 km were increased by the recalculations

  7. Earthquake and nuclear explosion location using the global seismic network

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lopez, L.M.

    1983-01-01

    The relocation of nuclear explosions, aftershock sequence and regional seismicity is addressed by using joint hypocenter determination, Lomnitz' distance domain location, and origin time and earthquake depth determination with local observations. Distance domain and joint hypocenter location are used for a stepwise relocation of nuclear explosions in the USSR. The resulting origin times are 2.5 seconds earlier than those obtained by ISC. Local travel times from the relocated explosions are compared to Jeffreys-Bullen tables. P times are found to be faster at 9-30/sup 0/ distances, the largest deviation being around 10 seconds at 13-18/sup 0/. At these distances S travel times also are faster by approximately 20 seconds. The 1977 Sumba earthquake sequence is relocated by iterative joint hypocenter determination of events with most station reports. Simultaneously determined station corrections are utilized for the relocation of smaller aftershocks. The relocated hypocenters indicate that the aftershocks were initially concentrated along the deep trench. Origin times and depths are recalculated for intermediate depth and deep earthquakes using local observations in and around the Japanese Islands. It is found that origin time and depth differ systematically from ISC values for intermediate depth events. Origin times obtained for events below the crust down to 100 km depth are earlier, whereas no general bias seem to exist for origin times of events in the 100-400 km depth range. The recalculated depths for earthquakes shallower than 100 km are shallower than ISC depths. The depth estimates for earthquakes deeper than 100 km were increased by the recalculations.

  8. Swedish earthquakes and acceleration probabilities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Slunga, R.

    1979-03-01

    A method to assign probabilities to ground accelerations for Swedish sites is described. As hardly any nearfield instrumental data is available we are left with the problem of interpreting macroseismic data in terms of acceleration. By theoretical wave propagation computations the relation between seismic strength of the earthquake, focal depth, distance and ground accelerations are calculated. We found that most Swedish earthquake of the area, the 1904 earthquake 100 km south of Oslo, is an exception and probably had a focal depth exceeding 25 km. For the nuclear power plant sites an annual probability of 10 -5 has been proposed as interesting. This probability gives ground accelerations in the range 5-20 % for the sites. This acceleration is for a free bedrock site. For consistency all acceleration results in this study are given for bedrock sites. When applicating our model to the 1904 earthquake and assuming the focal zone to be in the lower crust we get the epicentral acceleration of this earthquake to be 5-15 % g. The results above are based on an analyses of macrosismic data as relevant instrumental data is lacking. However, the macroseismic acceleration model deduced in this study gives epicentral ground acceleration of small Swedish earthquakes in agreement with existent distant instrumental data. (author)

  9. Building with Earthquakes in Mind

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mangieri, Nicholas

    2016-04-01

    Earthquakes are some of the most elusive and destructive disasters humans interact with on this planet. Engineering structures to withstand earthquake shaking is critical to ensure minimal loss of life and property. However, the majority of buildings today in non-traditional earthquake prone areas are not built to withstand this devastating force. Understanding basic earthquake engineering principles and the effect of limited resources helps students grasp the challenge that lies ahead. The solution can be found in retrofitting existing buildings with proper reinforcements and designs to deal with this deadly disaster. The students were challenged in this project to construct a basic structure, using limited resources, that could withstand a simulated tremor through the use of an earthquake shake table. Groups of students had to work together to creatively manage their resources and ideas to design the most feasible and realistic type of building. This activity provided a wealth of opportunities for the students to learn more about a type of disaster they do not experience in this part of the country. Due to the fact that most buildings in New York City were not designed to withstand earthquake shaking, the students were able to gain an appreciation for how difficult it would be to prepare every structure in the city for this type of event.

  10. Earthquake damage to underground facilities

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pratt, H.R.; Hustrulid, W.A. Stephenson, D.E.

    1978-11-01

    The potential seismic risk for an underground nuclear waste repository will be one of the considerations in evaluating its ultimate location. However, the risk to subsurface facilities cannot be judged by applying intensity ratings derived from the surface effects of an earthquake. A literature review and analysis were performed to document the damage and non-damage due to earthquakes to underground facilities. Damage from earthquakes to tunnels, s, and wells and damage (rock bursts) from mining operations were investigated. Damage from documented nuclear events was also included in the study where applicable. There are very few data on damage in the subsurface due to earthquakes. This fact itself attests to the lessened effect of earthquakes in the subsurface because mines exist in areas where strong earthquakes have done extensive surface damage. More damage is reported in shallow tunnels near the surface than in deep mines. In mines and tunnels, large displacements occur primarily along pre-existing faults and fractures or at the surface entrance to these facilities.Data indicate vertical structures such as wells and shafts are less susceptible to damage than surface facilities. More analysis is required before seismic criteria can be formulated for the siting of a nuclear waste repository.

  11. Earthquake damage to underground facilities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pratt, H.R.; Hustrulid, W.A.; Stephenson, D.E.

    1978-11-01

    The potential seismic risk for an underground nuclear waste repository will be one of the considerations in evaluating its ultimate location. However, the risk to subsurface facilities cannot be judged by applying intensity ratings derived from the surface effects of an earthquake. A literature review and analysis were performed to document the damage and non-damage due to earthquakes to underground facilities. Damage from earthquakes to tunnels, s, and wells and damage (rock bursts) from mining operations were investigated. Damage from documented nuclear events was also included in the study where applicable. There are very few data on damage in the subsurface due to earthquakes. This fact itself attests to the lessened effect of earthquakes in the subsurface because mines exist in areas where strong earthquakes have done extensive surface damage. More damage is reported in shallow tunnels near the surface than in deep mines. In mines and tunnels, large displacements occur primarily along pre-existing faults and fractures or at the surface entrance to these facilities.Data indicate vertical structures such as wells and shafts are less susceptible to damage than surface facilities. More analysis is required before seismic criteria can be formulated for the siting of a nuclear waste repository

  12. Global earthquake fatalities and population

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holzer, Thomas L.; Savage, James C.

    2013-01-01

    Modern global earthquake fatalities can be separated into two components: (1) fatalities from an approximately constant annual background rate that is independent of world population growth and (2) fatalities caused by earthquakes with large human death tolls, the frequency of which is dependent on world population. Earthquakes with death tolls greater than 100,000 (and 50,000) have increased with world population and obey a nonstationary Poisson distribution with rate proportional to population. We predict that the number of earthquakes with death tolls greater than 100,000 (50,000) will increase in the 21st century to 8.7±3.3 (20.5±4.3) from 4 (7) observed in the 20th century if world population reaches 10.1 billion in 2100. Combining fatalities caused by the background rate with fatalities caused by catastrophic earthquakes (>100,000 fatalities) indicates global fatalities in the 21st century will be 2.57±0.64 million if the average post-1900 death toll for catastrophic earthquakes (193,000) is assumed.

  13. Long aftershock sequences in North China and Central US: implications for hazard assessment in mid-continents

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Mian; Luo, Gang; Wang, Hui; Stein, Seth

    2014-02-01

    Because seismic activity within mid-continents is usually much lower than that along plate boundary zones, even small earthquakes can cause widespread concerns, especially when these events occur in the source regions of previous large earthquakes. However, these small earthquakes may be just aftershocks that continue for decades or even longer. The recent seismicity in the Tangshan region in North China is likely aftershocks of the 1976 Great Tangshan earthquake. The current earthquake sequence in the New Madrid seismic zone in central United States, which includes a cluster of M ~ 7.0 events in 1811-1812 and a number of similar events in the past millennium, is believed to result from recent fault reactivation that releases pre-stored strain energy in the crust. If so, this earthquake sequence is similar to aftershocks in that the rates of energy release should decay with time and the sequence of earthquakes will eventually end. We use simple physical analysis and numerical simulations to show that the current sequence of large earthquakes in the New Madrid fault zone is likely ending or has ended. Recognizing that mid-continental earthquakes have long aftershock sequences and complex spatiotemporal occurrences are critical to improve hazard assessments.

  14. The Implications of Strike-Slip Earthquake Source Properties on the Transform Boundary Development Process

    Science.gov (United States)

    Neely, J. S.; Huang, Y.; Furlong, K.

    2017-12-01

    Subduction-Transform Edge Propagator (STEP) faults, produced by the tearing of a subducting plate, allow us to study the development of a transform plate boundary and improve our understanding of both long-term geologic processes and short-term seismic hazards. The 280 km long San Cristobal Trough (SCT), formed by the tearing of the Australia plate as it subducts under the Pacific plate near the Solomon and Vanuatu subduction zones, shows along-strike variations in earthquake behaviors. The segment of the SCT closest to the tear rarely hosts earthquakes > Mw 6, whereas the SCT sections more than 80 - 100 km from the tear experience Mw7 earthquakes with repeated rupture along the same segments. To understand the effect of cumulative displacement on SCT seismicity, we analyze b-values, centroid-time delays and corner frequencies of the SCT earthquakes. We use the spectral ratio method based on Empirical Green's Functions (eGfs) to isolate source effects from propagation and site effects. We find high b-values along the SCT closest to the tear with values decreasing with distance before finally increasing again towards the far end of the SCT. Centroid time-delays for the Mw 7 strike-slip earthquakes increase with distance from the tear, but corner frequency estimates for a recent sequence of Mw 7 earthquakes are approximately equal, indicating a growing complexity in earthquake behavior with distance from the tear due to a displacement-driven transform boundary development process (see figure). The increasing complexity possibly stems from the earthquakes along the eastern SCT rupturing through multiple asperities resulting in multiple moment pulses. If not for the bounding Vanuatu subduction zone at the far end of the SCT, the eastern SCT section, which has experienced the most displacement, might be capable of hosting larger earthquakes. When assessing the seismic hazard of other STEP faults, cumulative fault displacement should be considered a key input in

  15. Twitter earthquake detection: earthquake monitoring in a social world

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daniel C. Bowden

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS is investigating how the social networking site Twitter, a popular service for sending and receiving short, public text messages, can augment USGS earthquake response products and the delivery of hazard information. Rapid detection and qualitative assessment of shaking events are possible because people begin sending public Twitter messages (tweets with in tens of seconds after feeling shaking. Here we present and evaluate an earthquake detection procedure that relies solely on Twitter data. A tweet-frequency time series constructed from tweets containing the word “earthquake” clearly shows large peaks correlated with the origin times of widely felt events. To identify possible earthquakes, we use a short-term-average, long-term-average algorithm. When tuned to a moderate sensitivity, the detector finds 48 globally-distributed earthquakes with only two false triggers in five months of data. The number of detections is small compared to the 5,175 earthquakes in the USGS global earthquake catalog for the same five-month time period, and no accurate location or magnitude can be assigned based on tweet data alone. However, Twitter earthquake detections are not without merit. The detections are generally caused by widely felt events that are of more immediate interest than those with no human impact. The detections are also fast; about 75% occur within two minutes of the origin time. This is considerably faster than seismographic detections in poorly instrumented regions of the world. The tweets triggering the detections also provided very short first-impression narratives from people who experienced the shaking.

  16. A 3000-year record of surface-rupturing earthquakes at Günalan: variable fault-rupture lengths along the 1939 Erzincan earthquake-rupture segment of the North Anatolian Fault, Turkey

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jeffrey George Fraser

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available The North Anatolian Fault is a ca. 1200-km-long, right-lateral, strike-slip fault that forms the northern boundary of the Anatolian plate. A damaging sequence of earthquakes ruptured almost the entire fault in the twentieth century. This study adds to the growing number of paleoseismic investigations of the 350-km-long 1939 Erzincan earthquake-rupture segment, which is towards the eastern end of the North Anatolian Fault in Turkey. Using three paleoseismic trenches located along ca. 2 km of the principal fault strand, this study determines the timing of five earthquakes prior to the 1939 earthquake. The first three of these earthquakes are correlated to historical earthquakes in A.D. 1668, 1254 and 499, and two further events were identified as occurring from 881-673 B.C. and from 1406-1291 B.C. (2v age ranges. By comparing the earthquake timing determined in this study to results from other paleoseismic investigations of the 1939 rupture segment, it becomes clear that this historical rupture segment does not always rupture in unison. This analysis indicates that the A.D. 499 earthquake was the last time the 1939 rupture segment ruptured in unison; partial ruptures of the 1939 rupture segment occur more frequently, and can also produce large magnitude earthquakes (MW >7.

  17. Seismic quiescence before the 2016 Mw 6.0 Amatrice earthquake, central Italy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Di Giovambattista, R.; Gentili, S.; Peresan, A.

    2017-12-01

    Seismic quiescence before major worldwide earthquakes has been reported by many authors. We have analyzed the seismicity preceding the last damaging 2016-2017 seismic sequence occurred in central Italy, and we have characterized the temporal and spatial extension of the foregoing seismic quiescence. The multiple mainshock sequence (24/08/2016, Mw 6.0; 26/10/2016 Mw 5.4 and 5.9; 30/10/2016, Mw 6.5), which occurred in central Italy, caused the death of nearly 300 people and widespread destruction of entire villages. The Mw 6.5 earthquake was the most powerful recorded in Italy since the 1980 M 6.9 Irpinia earthquake. The Region-Time-Length (RTL) method has been used to quantitatively analyze the seismic quiescence preceding the first Mw 6.0 Amatrice mainshock. This analysis was performed using the earthquake catalogue maintained by the Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV) declustered using a novel statistical approach, which is based on the "nearest-neighbor" distances between pairs of earthquakes in the space-time-energy domain. A well-evident quiescence that preceded the sequence was detected. The quiescence extended throughout a broad region north of the epicenter. The largest event of the sequence and its aftershocks covered most of the quiescence region, except for a small area to the west. The quiescence started from the beginning of September 2015 and lasted for approximately 1 year, up to the Amatrice mainshock. The results obtained have been compared with those of previous seismic sequences occurred in Italy. A similar analysis applied to the 1997-1998, Mw 5.7 Umbria-Marche earthquakes located at the northern termination of the Amatrice sequence, showed a decrease in RTL corresponding to a seismic quiescence, followed by a foreshock activation in the epicentral area before the occurrence of the mainshock.

  18. Comparison of two large earthquakes: the 2008 Sichuan Earthquake and the 2011 East Japan Earthquake.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Otani, Yuki; Ando, Takayuki; Atobe, Kaori; Haiden, Akina; Kao, Sheng-Yuan; Saito, Kohei; Shimanuki, Marie; Yoshimoto, Norifumi; Fukunaga, Koichi

    2012-01-01

    Between August 15th and 19th, 2011, eight 5th-year medical students from the Keio University School of Medicine had the opportunity to visit the Peking University School of Medicine and hold a discussion session titled "What is the most effective way to educate people for survival in an acute disaster situation (before the mental health care stage)?" During the session, we discussed the following six points: basic information regarding the Sichuan Earthquake and the East Japan Earthquake, differences in preparedness for earthquakes, government actions, acceptance of medical rescue teams, earthquake-induced secondary effects, and media restrictions. Although comparison of the two earthquakes was not simple, we concluded that three major points should be emphasized to facilitate the most effective course of disaster planning and action. First, all relevant agencies should formulate emergency plans and should supply information regarding the emergency to the general public and health professionals on a normal basis. Second, each citizen should be educated and trained in how to minimize the risks from earthquake-induced secondary effects. Finally, the central government should establish a single headquarters responsible for command, control, and coordination during a natural disaster emergency and should centralize all powers in this single authority. We hope this discussion may be of some use in future natural disasters in China, Japan, and worldwide.

  19. The 2009 Samoa-Tonga great earthquake triggered doublet

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lay, T.; Ammon, C.J.; Kanamori, H.; Rivera, L.; Koper, K.D.; Hutko, Alexander R.

    2010-01-01

    Great earthquakes (having seismic magnitudes of at least 8) usually involve abrupt sliding of rock masses at a boundary between tectonic plates. Such interplate ruptures produce dynamic and static stress changes that can activate nearby intraplate aftershocks, as is commonly observed in the trench-slope region seaward of a great subduction zone thrust event1-4. The earthquake sequence addressed here involves a rare instance in which a great trench-slope intraplate earthquake triggered extensive interplate faulting, reversing the typical pattern and broadly expanding the seismic and tsunami hazard. On 29 September 2009, within two minutes of the initiation of a normal faulting event with moment magnitude 8.1 in the outer trench-slope at the northern end of the Tonga subduction zone, two major interplate underthrusting subevents (both with moment magnitude 7.8), with total moment equal to a second great earthquake of moment magnitude 8.0, ruptured the nearby subduction zone megathrust. The collective faulting produced tsunami waves with localized regions of about 12metres run-up that claimed 192 lives in Samoa, American Samoa and Tonga. Overlap of the seismic signals obscured the fact that distinct faults separated by more than 50km had ruptured with different geometries, with the triggered thrust faulting only being revealed by detailed seismic wave analyses. Extensive interplate and intraplate aftershock activity was activated over a large region of the northern Tonga subduction zone. ?? 2010 Macmillan Publishers Limited. All rights reserved.

  20. Precise relative earthquake depth determination using array processing techniques

    Science.gov (United States)

    Florez, M. A.; Prieto, G. A.

    2017-06-01

    Precise determination of hypocentral depth remains one of the most relevant problems in earthquake seismology. It is well known that using depth phases allows for significant improvement in event depth determination; however, routinely and systematically picking such phases, for teleseismic or regional arrivals, is problematic due to poor signal-to-noise ratios around the pP and sP phases. To overcome this limitation, we have taken advantage of the additional information carried by seismic arrays. We use velocity spectral analysis to precisely measure pP-P times. The individual estimates obtained at different subarrays, for all pairs of earthquakes, are combined using a double-difference algorithm, in order to precisely map seismicity in regions where it is tightly clustered. We illustrate this method by relocating intermediate-depth earthquakes in the Nazca subducting plate, beneath northern Chile, where we confirm the existence of a narrowly spaced double seismic zone, previously imaged using a local dedicated deployment. As a second example we relocate the aftershock sequence of the 2014 Mw 7.9 intermediate depth, Rat Islands earthquake, and provide evidence of a subvertical fault plane for the main shock. Finally, we show that the resulting relative depth errors are typically smaller than 2 km.

  1. Earthquake fault superhighways

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robinson, D. P.; Das, S.; Searle, M. P.

    2010-10-01

    Motivated by the observation that the rare earthquakes which propagated for significant distances at supershear speeds occurred on very long straight segments of faults, we examine every known major active strike-slip fault system on land worldwide and identify those with long (> 100 km) straight portions capable not only of sustained supershear rupture speeds but having the potential to reach compressional wave speeds over significant distances, and call them "fault superhighways". The criteria used for identifying these are discussed. These superhighways include portions of the 1000 km long Red River fault in China and Vietnam passing through Hanoi, the 1050 km long San Andreas fault in California passing close to Los Angeles, Santa Barbara and San Francisco, the 1100 km long Chaman fault system in Pakistan north of Karachi, the 700 km long Sagaing fault connecting the first and second cities of Burma, Rangoon and Mandalay, the 1600 km Great Sumatra fault, and the 1000 km Dead Sea fault. Of the 11 faults so classified, nine are in Asia and two in North America, with seven located near areas of very dense populations. Based on the current population distribution within 50 km of each fault superhighway, we find that more than 60 million people today have increased seismic hazards due to them.

  2. Laboratory generated M -6 earthquakes

    Science.gov (United States)

    McLaskey, Gregory C.; Kilgore, Brian D.; Lockner, David A.; Beeler, Nicholas M.

    2014-01-01

    We consider whether mm-scale earthquake-like seismic events generated in laboratory experiments are consistent with our understanding of the physics of larger earthquakes. This work focuses on a population of 48 very small shocks that are foreshocks and aftershocks of stick–slip events occurring on a 2.0 m by 0.4 m simulated strike-slip fault cut through a large granite sample. Unlike the larger stick–slip events that rupture the entirety of the simulated fault, the small foreshocks and aftershocks are contained events whose properties are controlled by the rigidity of the surrounding granite blocks rather than characteristics of the experimental apparatus. The large size of the experimental apparatus, high fidelity sensors, rigorous treatment of wave propagation effects, and in situ system calibration separates this study from traditional acoustic emission analyses and allows these sources to be studied with as much rigor as larger natural earthquakes. The tiny events have short (3–6 μs) rise times and are well modeled by simple double couple focal mechanisms that are consistent with left-lateral slip occurring on a mm-scale patch of the precut fault surface. The repeatability of the experiments indicates that they are the result of frictional processes on the simulated fault surface rather than grain crushing or fracture of fresh rock. Our waveform analysis shows no significant differences (other than size) between the M -7 to M -5.5 earthquakes reported here and larger natural earthquakes. Their source characteristics such as stress drop (1–10 MPa) appear to be entirely consistent with earthquake scaling laws derived for larger earthquakes.

  3. 3d-model of Earthquake Induced Stress Field Changes In The Swabian Jura

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sachse, A.; Heidbach, O.; Connolly, P.; Reinecker, J.; Scherbaum, F.

    Several damaging earthquakes occurred during the last century in the Swabian Jura, south-western Germany. This is one of the most active regions of northern Europe with local magnitudes up to 6. The earthquake sequence 1911- 1978 contains eight strike-slip events which took place at sub-vertical NNE-SSW striking fault planes. Remarkable is a time migration of the seismic events and simultaneous decrease in focal depths towards north. In our model assumption we explain this observed be- haviour as a earthquake triggering due to stress changes. These stress changes can be either caused by a single previous seismic event or by stress accumulation of all pre- vious earthquakes. A three-dimensional Finite-Element-Model of the Swabian Jura is established. The 100x100 km box of the crust contains the striking geological fea- tures, including the Albstadt-shearzone and the Hohenzollern-graben. The rheology is linear-elastic. The Youngs modulus changes with lithological and thermal setting. The boundary conditions are the displacements derived from the earthquake sequence. The stress changes are represented by using the Coulomb failure function. In case of failure the function value is positive, i.e. shear stress exceeds normal stress. Looking at the change of Coulomb failure stress it can be stated if an event will be suppressed or encouraged by the previous earthquake. First results of various case studies will be presented.

  4. Correlation between Earthquakes and AE Monitoring of Historical Buildings in Seismic Areas

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Giuseppe Lacidogna

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available In this contribution a new method for evaluating seismic risk in regional areas based on the acoustic emission (AE technique is proposed. Most earthquakes have precursors, i.e., phenomena of changes in the Earth’s physical-chemical properties that take place prior to an earthquake. Acoustic emissions in materials and earthquakes in the Earth’s crust, despite the fact that they take place on very different scales, are very similar phenomena; both are caused by a release of elastic energy from a source located in a medium. For the AE monitoring, two important constructions of Italian cultural heritage are considered: the chapel of the “Sacred Mountain of Varallo” and the “Asinelli Tower” of Bologna. They were monitored during earthquake sequences in their relative areas. By using the Grassberger-Procaccia algorithm, a statistical method of analysis was developed that detects AEs as earthquake precursors or aftershocks. Under certain conditions it was observed that AEs precede earthquakes. These considerations reinforce the idea that the AE monitoring can be considered an effective tool for earthquake risk evaluation.

  5. Preliminary Results from SCEC Earthquake Simulator Comparison Project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tullis, T. E.; Barall, M.; Richards-Dinger, K. B.; Ward, S. N.; Heien, E.; Zielke, O.; Pollitz, F. F.; Dieterich, J. H.; Rundle, J. B.; Yikilmaz, M. B.; Turcotte, D. L.; Kellogg, L. H.; Field, E. H.

    2010-12-01

    Earthquake simulators are computer programs that simulate long sequences of earthquakes. If such simulators could be shown to produce synthetic earthquake histories that are good approximations to actual earthquake histories they could be of great value in helping to anticipate the probabilities of future earthquakes and so could play an important role in helping to make public policy decisions. Consequently it is important to discover how realistic are the earthquake histories that result from these simulators. One way to do this is to compare their behavior with the limited knowledge we have from the instrumental, historic, and paleoseismic records of past earthquakes. Another, but slow process for large events, is to use them to make predictions about future earthquake occurrence and to evaluate how well the predictions match what occurs. A final approach is to compare the results of many varied earthquake simulators to determine the extent to which the results depend on the details of the approaches and assumptions made by each simulator. Five independently developed simulators, capable of running simulations on complicated geometries containing multiple faults, are in use by some of the authors of this abstract. Although similar in their overall purpose and design, these simulators differ from one another widely in their details in many important ways. They require as input for each fault element a value for the average slip rate as well as a value for friction parameters or stress reduction due to slip. They share the use of the boundary element method to compute stress transfer between elements. None use dynamic stress transfer by seismic waves. A notable difference is the assumption different simulators make about the constitutive properties of the faults. The earthquake simulator comparison project is designed to allow comparisons among the simulators and between the simulators and past earthquake history. The project uses sets of increasingly detailed

  6. Constraining the magnitude of the largest event in a foreshock-main shock-aftershock sequence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shcherbakov, Robert; Zhuang, Jiancang; Ogata, Yosihiko

    2018-01-01

    Extreme value statistics and Bayesian methods are used to constrain the magnitudes of the largest expected earthquakes in a sequence governed by the parametric time-dependent occurrence rate and frequency-magnitude statistics. The Bayesian predictive distribution for the magnitude of the largest event in a sequence is derived. Two types of sequences are considered, that is, the classical aftershock sequences generated by large main shocks and the aftershocks generated by large foreshocks preceding a main shock. For the former sequences, the early aftershocks during a training time interval are used to constrain the magnitude of the future extreme event during the forecasting time interval. For the latter sequences, the earthquakes preceding the main shock are used to constrain the magnitudes of the subsequent extreme events including the main shock. The analysis is applied retrospectively to past prominent earthquake sequences.

  7. Indonesian earthquake: earthquake risk from co-seismic stress.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McCloskey, John; Nalbant, Suleyman S; Steacy, Sandy

    2005-03-17

    Following the massive loss of life caused by the Sumatra-Andaman earthquake in Indonesia and its tsunami, the possibility of a triggered earthquake on the contiguous Sunda trench subduction zone is a real concern. We have calculated the distributions of co-seismic stress on this zone, as well as on the neighbouring, vertical strike-slip Sumatra fault, and find an increase in stress on both structures that significantly boosts the already considerable earthquake hazard posed by them. In particular, the increased potential for a large subduction-zone event in this region, with the concomitant risk of another tsunami, makes the need for a tsunami warning system in the Indian Ocean all the more urgent.

  8. Using earthquake intensities to forecast earthquake occurrence times

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. R. Holliday

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available It is well known that earthquakes do not occur randomly in space and time. Foreshocks, aftershocks, precursory activation, and quiescence are just some of the patterns recognized by seismologists. Using the Pattern Informatics technique along with relative intensity analysis, we create a scoring method based on time dependent relative operating characteristic diagrams and show that the occurrences of large earthquakes in California correlate with time intervals where fluctuations in small earthquakes are suppressed relative to the long term average. We estimate a probability of less than 1% that this coincidence is due to random clustering. Furthermore, we show that the methods used to obtain these results may be applicable to other parts of the world.

  9. The music of earthquakes and Earthquake Quartet #1

    Science.gov (United States)

    Michael, Andrew J.

    2013-01-01

    Earthquake Quartet #1, my composition for voice, trombone, cello, and seismograms, is the intersection of listening to earthquakes as a seismologist and performing music as a trombonist. Along the way, I realized there is a close relationship between what I do as a scientist and what I do as a musician. A musician controls the source of the sound and the path it travels through their instrument in order to make sound waves that we hear as music. An earthquake is the source of waves that travel along a path through the earth until reaching us as shaking. It is almost as if the earth is a musician and people, including seismologists, are metaphorically listening and trying to understand what the music means.

  10. Potential of future seismogenesis in Hebei Province (NE China) due to stress interactions between strong earthquakes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karakostas, Vassilios; Papadimitriou, Eleftheria; Jin, Xueshen; Liu, Zhihui; Paradisopoulou, Parthena; He, Zhang

    2013-10-01

    Northeast China, a densely populated area, is affected by intense seismic activity, which includes large events that caused extensive disaster and tremendous loss of life. For contributing to the continuous efforts for seismic hazard assessment, the earthquake potential from the active faults near the cities of Zhangjiakou and Langfang in Hebei Province is examined. We estimate the effect of the coseismic stress changes of strong (M ⩾ 5.0) earthquakes on the major regional active faults, and mapped Coulomb stress change onto these target faults. More importantly our calculations reveal that positive stress changes caused by the largest events of the 1976 Tangshan sequence make the Xiadian and part of Daxing fault, thus considered the most likely sites of the next strong earthquake in the study area. The accumulated static stress changes that reached a value of up to 0.4 bar onto these faults, were subsequently incorporated in earthquake probability estimates for the next 30 years.

  11. Shallow megathrust earthquake ruptures betrayed by their outer-trench aftershocks signature

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sladen, Anthony; Trevisan, Jenny

    2018-02-01

    For some megathrust earthquakes, the rupture extends to the solid Earth's surface, at the ocean floor. This unexpected behaviour holds strong implications for the tsunami potential of subduction zones and for the physical conditions governing earthquakes, but such ruptures occur in underwater areas which are hard to observe, even with current instrumentation and imaging techniques. Here, we evidence that aftershocks occurring ocean-ward from the trench are conditioned by near-surface rupture of the megathrust fault. Comparison to well constrained earthquake slip models further reveals that for each event the number of aftershocks is proportional to the amount of shallow slip, a link likely related to static stress transfer. Hence, the spatial distribution of these specific aftershock sequences could provide independent constrains on the coseismic shallow slip of future events. It also offers the prospect to be able to reassess the rupture of many large subduction earthquakes back to the beginning of the instrumental era.

  12. Earthquake Swarm Along the San Andreas Fault near Palmdale, Southern California, 1976 to 1977.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McNally, K C; Kanamori, H; Pechmann, J C; Fuis, G

    1978-09-01

    Between November 1976 and November 1977 a swarm of small earthquakes (local magnitude San Andreas fault near Palmdale, California. This swarm was the first observed along this section of the San Andreas since cataloging of instrumental data began in 1932. The activity followed partial subsidence of the 35-centimeter vertical crustal uplift known as the Palmdale bulge along this "locked" section of the San Andreas, which last broke in the great (surface-wave magnitude = 8(1/4)+) 1857 Fort Tejon earthquake. The swarm events exhibit characteristics previously observed for some foreshock sequences, such as tight clustering of hypocenters and time-dependent rotations of stress axes inferred from focal mechanisms. However, because of our present lack of understanding of the processes that precede earthquake faulting, the implications of the swarm for future large earthquakes on the San Andreas fault are unknown.

  13. Introduction to the special issue on the 25 April 2015 Mw 7.8 Gorkha(Nepal) earthquake

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hayes, Gavin; Briggs, Richard

    2016-01-01

    On April 25, 2015, a moment magnitude (Mw) 7.8 earthquake struck central Nepal, breaking a section of the broader Himalayan Front that had been largely quiescent in moderate-to-large earthquakes for much of the modern seismological era. Ground shaking associated with the event resulted in a broad distribution of triggered avalanches and landslides. The ensuing aftershock sequence was punctuated by a Mw 7.3 event 17 days after the mainshock. The combined effects of these earthquakes and secondary hazards have led to the Gorkha earthquake becoming the worst natural disaster in Nepal since the 1934 Nepal-Bihar earthquake, causing close to 9000 deaths and severely injuring over 21,000 people (OCHA, 2015).Despite the devastating effects of this earthquake, the convergent margin that hosted it is thought to be capable of much larger ruptures—perhaps as large as Mw 9 (Feldl and Bilham, 2006). The 2015 Gorkha rupture lies just to the west of the 1934 M 8.0–8.4 event (Sapkota et al., 2013; Bollinger et al., 2014). Unlike the 1934 event, which has been documented in paleoseismic trenches along the Himalayan Front (e.g., Sapkota et al., 2013), and other large ruptures along the arc (e.g., Lavé et al., 2005; Kumar et al., 2006), the 2015 event did not rupture to the surface (e.g., Galetzka et al., 2015). As a result, some researchers have suggested that the Gorkha earthquake was not as large, or as damaging, as might have been expected based on our (albeit limited) understanding of historic earthquakes, seismic hazard and risk (e.g., Bilham, 2015; Hough, 2015).Important questions surrounding the earthquake and its regional setting thus arise. What were the detailed characteristics of the rupture and the aftershock sequence, and what is the relationship between mainshock slip and subsequent seismicity? Why did this event not rupture to the surface? Was damage less than should have been expected; and if so, why? What role did path effects, such as basin amplification

  14. Earthquake and Tsunami booklet based on two Indonesia earthquakes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hayashi, Y.; Aci, M.

    2014-12-01

    Many destructive earthquakes occurred during the last decade in Indonesia. These experiences are very important precepts for the world people who live in earthquake and tsunami countries. We are collecting the testimonies of tsunami survivors to clarify successful evacuation process and to make clear the characteristic physical behaviors of tsunami near coast. We research 2 tsunami events, 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami and 2010 Mentawai slow earthquake tsunami. Many video and photographs were taken by people at some places in 2004 Indian ocean tsunami disaster; nevertheless these were few restricted points. We didn't know the tsunami behavior in another place. In this study, we tried to collect extensive information about tsunami behavior not only in many places but also wide time range after the strong shake. In Mentawai case, the earthquake occurred in night, so there are no impressive photos. To collect detail information about evacuation process from tsunamis, we contrived the interview method. This method contains making pictures of tsunami experience from the scene of victims' stories. In 2004 Aceh case, all survivors didn't know tsunami phenomena. Because there were no big earthquakes with tsunami for one hundred years in Sumatra region, public people had no knowledge about tsunami. This situation was highly improved in 2010 Mentawai case. TV programs and NGO or governmental public education programs about tsunami evacuation are widespread in Indonesia. Many people know about fundamental knowledge of earthquake and tsunami disasters. We made drill book based on victim's stories and painted impressive scene of 2 events. We used the drill book in disaster education event in school committee of west Java. About 80 % students and teachers evaluated that the contents of the drill book are useful for correct understanding.

  15. Book review: Earthquakes and water

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bekins, Barbara A.

    2012-01-01

    It is really nice to see assembled in one place a discussion of the documented and hypothesized hydrologic effects of earthquakes. The book is divided into chapters focusing on particular hydrologic phenomena including liquefaction, mud volcanism, stream discharge increases, groundwater level, temperature and chemical changes, and geyser period changes. These hydrologic effects are inherently fascinating, and the large number of relevant publications in the past decade makes this summary a useful milepost. The book also covers hydrologic precursors and earthquake triggering by pore pressure. A natural need to limit the topics covered resulted in the omission of tsunamis and the vast literature on the role of fluids and pore pressure in frictional strength of faults. Regardless of whether research on earthquake-triggered hydrologic effects ultimately provides insight into the physics of earthquakes, the text provides welcome common ground for interdisciplinary collaborations between hydrologists and seismologists. Such collaborations continue to be crucial for investigating hypotheses about the role of fluids in earthquakes and slow slip. 

  16. Unbonded Prestressed Columns for Earthquake Resistance

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-05-01

    Modern structures are able to survive significant shaking caused by earthquakes. By implementing unbonded post-tensioned tendons in bridge columns, the damage caused by an earthquake can be significantly lower than that of a standard reinforced concr...

  17. Global Earthquake Hazard Distribution - Peak Ground Acceleration

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Global Earthquake Hazard Distribution-Peak Ground Acceleration is a 2.5 by 2.5 minute grid of global earthquake hazards developed using Global Seismic Hazard Program...

  18. Global Earthquake Hazard Frequency and Distribution

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Global Earthquake Hazard Frequency and Distribution is a 2.5 by 2.5 minute global utilizing Advanced National Seismic System (ANSS) Earthquake Catalog data of actual...

  19. Extreme value distribution of earthquake magnitude

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zi, Jun Gan; Tung, C. C.

    1983-07-01

    Probability distribution of maximum earthquake magnitude is first derived for an unspecified probability distribution of earthquake magnitude. A model for energy release of large earthquakes, similar to that of Adler-Lomnitz and Lomnitz, is introduced from which the probability distribution of earthquake magnitude is obtained. An extensive set of world data for shallow earthquakes, covering the period from 1904 to 1980, is used to determine the parameters of the probability distribution of maximum earthquake magnitude. Because of the special form of probability distribution of earthquake magnitude, a simple iterative scheme is devised to facilitate the estimation of these parameters by the method of least-squares. The agreement between the empirical and derived probability distributions of maximum earthquake magnitude is excellent.

  20. Global Earthquake Hazard Frequency and Distribution

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Global Earthquake Hazard Frequency and Distribution is a 2.5 minute grid utilizing Advanced National Seismic System (ANSS) Earthquake Catalog data of actual...

  1. Global Earthquake Proportional Economic Loss Risk Deciles

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Global Earthquake Proportional Economic Loss Risk Deciles is a 2.5 minute grid of earthquake hazard economic loss as proportions of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per...

  2. Global Earthquake Total Economic Loss Risk Deciles

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Global Earthquake Total Economic Loss Risk Deciles is a 2.5 minute grid of global earthquake total economic loss risks. A process of spatially allocating Gross...

  3. Global Earthquake Mortality Risks and Distribution

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Global Earthquake Mortality Risks and Distribution is a 2.5 minute grid of global earthquake mortality risks. Gridded Population of the World, Version 3 (GPWv3) data...

  4. Global Earthquake Mortality Risks and Distribution

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Global Earthquake Hazard Frequency and Distribution is a 2.5 minute grid utilizing Advanced National Seismic System (ANSS) Earthquake Catalog data of actual...

  5. Global Earthquake Hazard Distribution - Peak Ground Acceleration

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Global Earthquake Hazard Distribution-peak ground acceleration is a 2.5 minute grid of global earthquake hazards developed using Global Seismic Hazard Program...

  6. Genome Sequencing

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sato, Shusei; Andersen, Stig Uggerhøj

    2014-01-01

    The current Lotus japonicus reference genome sequence is based on a hybrid assembly of Sanger TAC/BAC, Sanger shotgun and Illumina shotgun sequencing data generated from the Miyakojima-MG20 accession. It covers nearly all expressed L. japonicus genes and has been annotated mainly based...... on transcriptional evidence. Analysis of repetitive sequences suggests that they are underrepresented in the reference assembly, reflecting an enrichment of gene-rich regions in the current assembly. Characterization of Lotus natural variation by resequencing of L. japonicus accessions and diploid Lotus species...... is currently ongoing, facilitated by the MG20 reference sequence...

  7. Macroseismic intensity investigation of the November 2014, M=5.7, Vrancea (Romania crustal earthquake

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Angela Petruta Constantin

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available On November 22, 2014 at 21:14:17 local hour (19:14:17 GMT a  ML=5.7 crustal earthquake occurred in the area of Marasesti city of Vrancea county (Romania - the epicenter was located at north latitude 45.87° and east longitude 27.16°, with a focal depth of 39 km. This earthquake is the main shock of a sequence that started with this and lasted until the end of January. During the sequence, characterized by the absence of foreshocks, a number of 75 earthquakes were recorded in 72 hours, the largest of which occurred in the same day with the main shock, at 22:30 (ML= 3.1. The crustal seismicity of Vrancea seismogenic region is characterized by moderate earthquakes with magnitudes that have not exceeded MW 5.9, this value being assigned to an earthquake that occurred in historical times on March 1, 1894 (Romplus catalogue. Immediately after the 2014 earthquake occurrence, the National Institute for Earth Physics (NIEP sent macroseismic questionnaires in all affected areas, in order to define the macroseismic field of ground shaking. According to macroseismic questionnaires survey, the intensity of epicentral area reached VI MSK, and the seismic event was felt in all the extra-Carpathian area. This earthquake caused general panic and minor to moderate damage to the buildings in the epicentral area and the northeast part of country. The main purpose of this paper is to present the macroseismic map of the earthquake based on the MSK-64 intensity scale.

  8. PRECURSORS OF EARTHQUAKES: VLF SIGNALSIONOSPHERE IONOSPHERE RELATION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mustafa ULAS

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available lot of people have died because of earthquakes every year. Therefore It is crucial to predict the time of the earthquakes reasonable time before it had happed. This paper presents recent information published in the literature about precursors of earthquakes. The relationships between earthquakes and ionosphere are targeted to guide new researches in order to study further to find novel prediction methods.

  9. Fault geometry and earthquake mechanics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. J. Andrews

    1994-06-01

    Full Text Available Earthquake mechanics may be determined by the geometry of a fault system. Slip on a fractal branching fault surface can explain: 1 regeneration of stress irregularities in an earthquake; 2 the concentration of stress drop in an earthquake into asperities; 3 starting and stopping of earthquake slip at fault junctions, and 4 self-similar scaling of earthquakes. Slip at fault junctions provides a natural realization of barrier and asperity models without appealing to variations of fault strength. Fault systems are observed to have a branching fractal structure, and slip may occur at many fault junctions in an earthquake. Consider the mechanics of slip at one fault junction. In order to avoid a stress singularity of order 1/r, an intersection of faults must be a triple junction and the Burgers vectors on the three fault segments at the junction must sum to zero. In other words, to lowest order the deformation consists of rigid block displacement, which ensures that the local stress due to the dislocations is zero. The elastic dislocation solution, however, ignores the fact that the configuration of the blocks changes at the scale of the displacement. A volume change occurs at the junction; either a void opens or intense local deformation is required to avoid material overlap. The volume change is proportional to the product of the slip increment and the total slip since the formation of the junction. Energy absorbed at the junction, equal to confining pressure times the volume change, is not large enongh to prevent slip at a new junction. The ratio of energy absorbed at a new junction to elastic energy released in an earthquake is no larger than P/µ where P is confining pressure and µ is the shear modulus. At a depth of 10 km this dimensionless ratio has th value P/µ= 0.01. As slip accumulates at a fault junction in a number of earthquakes, the fault segments are displaced such that they no longer meet at a single point. For this reason the

  10. Historical earthquake investigations in Greece

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. Makropoulos

    2004-06-01

    Full Text Available The active tectonics of the area of Greece and its seismic activity have always been present in the country?s history. Many researchers, tempted to work on Greek historical earthquakes, have realized that this is a task not easily fulfilled. The existing catalogues of strong historical earthquakes are useful tools to perform general SHA studies. However, a variety of supporting datasets, non-uniformly distributed in space and time, need to be further investigated. In the present paper, a review of historical earthquake studies in Greece is attempted. The seismic history of the country is divided into four main periods. In each one of them, characteristic examples, studies and approaches are presented.

  11. Associating an ionospheric parameter with major earthquake ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    With time, ionospheric variation analysis is gaining over lithospheric monitoring in serving precursors for earthquake forecast. The current paper highlights the association of major (Ms ≥ 6.0) and medium (4.0 ≤ Ms > 6.0) earthquake occurrences throughout the world in different ranges of the Ionospheric Earthquake ...

  12. Earthquakes: A Teacher's Package for K-6.

    Science.gov (United States)

    National Science Teachers Association, Washington, DC.

    Like rain, an earthquake is a natural occurrence which may be mild or catastrophic. Although an earthquake may last only a few seconds, the processes that cause it have operated within the earth for millions of years. Until recently, the cause of earthquakes was a mystery and the subject of fanciful folklore to people all around the world. This…

  13. Earthquakes in the New Zealand Region.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wallace, Cleland

    1995-01-01

    Presents a thorough overview of earthquakes in New Zealand, discussing plate tectonics, seismic measurement, and historical occurrences. Includes 10 figures illustrating such aspects as earthquake distribution, intensity, and fissures in the continental crust. Tabular data includes a list of most destructive earthquakes and descriptive effects…

  14. Earthquakes in Zimbabwe | Clark | Zimbabwe Science News

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Earthquakes are one of the most destructive natural forces, in both human and economic terms. For example, since 1900, 10 earthquakes have occurred that each killed over 50 000 people. Earthquakes in modern industrialized areas can be also be very costly, even if well designed and constructed buildings save many ...

  15. Can Dams and Reservoirs Cause Earthquakes?

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    indirect investigations of these regions are subject to inevitable multiple interpretations. Still, a measure of understanding about reservoir induced earthquakes has been achieved. It is my aim to put the phenomenon in a perspective on this basis. I saw the Koyna Earthquake Recorded. Koyna earthquake of December 10, ...

  16. 13 CFR 120.174 - Earthquake hazards.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 13 Business Credit and Assistance 1 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Earthquake hazards. 120.174... Applying to All Business Loans Requirements Imposed Under Other Laws and Orders § 120.174 Earthquake..., the construction must conform with the “National Earthquake Hazards Reduction Program (“NEHRP...

  17. Gradual unlocking of plate boundary controlled initiation of the 2014 Iquique earthquake.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schurr, Bernd; Asch, Günter; Hainzl, Sebastian; Bedford, Jonathan; Hoechner, Andreas; Palo, Mauro; Wang, Rongjiang; Moreno, Marcos; Bartsch, Mitja; Zhang, Yong; Oncken, Onno; Tilmann, Frederik; Dahm, Torsten; Victor, Pia; Barrientos, Sergio; Vilotte, Jean-Pierre

    2014-08-21

    On 1 April 2014, Northern Chile was struck by a magnitude 8.1 earthquake following a protracted series of foreshocks. The Integrated Plate Boundary Observatory Chile monitored the entire sequence of events, providing unprecedented resolution of the build-up to the main event and its rupture evolution. Here we show that the Iquique earthquake broke a central fraction of the so-called northern Chile seismic gap, the last major segment of the South American plate boundary that had not ruptured in the past century. Since July 2013 three seismic clusters, each lasting a few weeks, hit this part of the plate boundary with earthquakes of increasing peak magnitudes. Starting with the second cluster, geodetic observations show surface displacements that can be associated with slip on the plate interface. These seismic clusters and their slip transients occupied a part of the plate interface that was transitional between a fully locked and a creeping portion. Leading up to this earthquake, the b value of the foreshocks gradually decreased during the years before the earthquake, reversing its trend a few days before the Iquique earthquake. The mainshock finally nucleated at the northern end of the foreshock area, which skirted a locked patch, and ruptured mainly downdip towards higher locking. Peak slip was attained immediately downdip of the foreshock region and at the margin of the locked patch. We conclude that gradual weakening of the central part of the seismic gap accentuated by the foreshock activity in a zone of intermediate seismic coupling was instrumental in causing final failure, distinguishing the Iquique earthquake from most great earthquakes. Finally, only one-third of the gap was broken and the remaining locked segments now pose a significant, increased seismic hazard with the potential to host an earthquake with a magnitude of >8.5.

  18. Fault failure with moderate earthquakes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnston, M.J.S.; Linde, A.T.; Gladwin, M.T.; Borcherdt, R.D.

    1987-01-01

    High resolution strain and tilt recordings were made in the near-field of, and prior to, the May 1983 Coalinga earthquake (ML = 6.7, ?? = 51 km), the August 4, 1985, Kettleman Hills earthquake (ML = 5.5, ?? = 34 km), the April 1984 Morgan Hill earthquake (ML = 6.1, ?? = 55 km), the November 1984 Round Valley earthquake (ML = 5.8, ?? = 54 km), the January 14, 1978, Izu, Japan earthquake (ML = 7.0, ?? = 28 km), and several other smaller magnitude earthquakes. These recordings were made with near-surface instruments (resolution 10-8), with borehole dilatometers (resolution 10-10) and a 3-component borehole strainmeter (resolution 10-9). While observed coseismic offsets are generally in good agreement with expectations from elastic dislocation theory, and while post-seismic deformation continued, in some cases, with a moment comparable to that of the main shock, preseismic strain or tilt perturbations from hours to seconds (or less) before the main shock are not apparent above the present resolution. Precursory slip for these events, if any occurred, must have had a moment less than a few percent of that of the main event. To the extent that these records reflect general fault behavior, the strong constraint on the size and amount of slip triggering major rupture makes prediction of the onset times and final magnitudes of the rupture zones a difficult task unless the instruments are fortuitously installed near the rupture initiation point. These data are best explained by an inhomogeneous failure model for which various areas of the fault plane have either different stress-slip constitutive laws or spatially varying constitutive parameters. Other work on seismic waveform analysis and synthetic waveforms indicates that the rupturing process is inhomogeneous and controlled by points of higher strength. These models indicate that rupture initiation occurs at smaller regions of higher strength which, when broken, allow runaway catastrophic failure. ?? 1987.

  19. Fault failure with moderate earthquakes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnston, M. J. S.; Linde, A. T.; Gladwin, M. T.; Borcherdt, R. D.

    1987-12-01

    High resolution strain and tilt recordings were made in the near-field of, and prior to, the May 1983 Coalinga earthquake ( ML = 6.7, Δ = 51 km), the August 4, 1985, Kettleman Hills earthquake ( ML = 5.5, Δ = 34 km), the April 1984 Morgan Hill earthquake ( ML = 6.1, Δ = 55 km), the November 1984 Round Valley earthquake ( ML = 5.8, Δ = 54 km), the January 14, 1978, Izu, Japan earthquake ( ML = 7.0, Δ = 28 km), and several other smaller magnitude earthquakes. These recordings were made with near-surface instruments (resolution 10 -8), with borehole dilatometers (resolution 10 -10) and a 3-component borehole strainmeter (resolution 10 -9). While observed coseismic offsets are generally in good agreement with expectations from elastic dislocation theory, and while post-seismic deformation continued, in some cases, with a moment comparable to that of the main shock, preseismic strain or tilt perturbations from hours to seconds (or less) before the main shock are not apparent above the present resolution. Precursory slip for these events, if any occurred, must have had a moment less than a few percent of that of the main event. To the extent that these records reflect general fault behavior, the strong constraint on the size and amount of slip triggering major rupture makes prediction of the onset times and final magnitudes of the rupture zones a difficult task unless the instruments are fortuitously installed near the rupture initiation point. These data are best explained by an inhomogeneous failure model for which various areas of the fault plane have either different stress-slip constitutive laws or spatially varying constitutive parameters. Other work on seismic waveform analysis and synthetic waveforms indicates that the rupturing process is inhomogeneous and controlled by points of higher strength. These models indicate that rupture initiation occurs at smaller regions of higher strength which, when broken, allow runaway catastrophic failure.

  20. Biological Anomalies around the 2009 L’Aquila Earthquake

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fidani, Cristiano

    2013-01-01

    Simple Summary Earthquakes have been seldom associated with reported non-seismic phenomena observed weeks before and after shocks. Non-seismic phenomena are characterized by radio disturbances and light emissions as well as degassing of vast areas near the epicenter with chemical alterations of shallow geospheres (aquifers, soils) and the troposphere. Many animals are sensitive to even the weakest changes in the environment, typically responding with behavioral and physiological changes. A specific questionnaire was developed to collect data on these changes around the time of the 2009 L’Aquila earthquake. Abstract The April 6, 2009 L’Aquila earthquake was the strongest seismic event to occur in Italy over the last thirty years with a magnitude of M = 6.3. Around the time of the seismic swarm many instruments were operating in Central Italy, even if not dedicated to biological effects associated with the stress field variations, including seismicity. Testimonies were collected using a specific questionnaire immediately after the main shock, including data on earthquake lights, gas leaks, human diseases, and irregular animal behavior. The questionnaire was made up of a sequence of arguments, based upon past historical earthquake observations and compiled over seven months after the main shock. Data on animal behavior, before, during and after the main shocks, were analyzed in space/time distributions with respect to the epicenter area, evidencing the specific responses of different animals. Several instances of strange animal behavior were observed which could causally support the hypotheses that they were induced by the physical presence of gas, electric charges and electromagnetic waves in atmosphere. The aim of this study was to order the biological observations and thereby allow future work to determine whether these observations were influenced by geophysical parameters. PMID:26479529

  1. Aftershock Characteristics as a Means of Discriminating Explosions from Earthquakes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ford, S R; Walter, W R

    2009-05-20

    The behavior of aftershock sequences around the Nevada Test Site in the southern Great Basin is characterized as a potential discriminant between explosions and earthquakes. The aftershock model designed by Reasenberg and Jones (1989, 1994) allows for a probabilistic statement of earthquake-like aftershock behavior at any time after the mainshock. We use this model to define two types of aftershock discriminants. The first defines M{sub X}, or the minimum magnitude of an aftershock expected within a given duration after the mainshock with probability X. Of the 67 earthquakes with M > 4 in the study region, 63 of them produce an aftershock greater than M{sub 99} within the first seven days after a mainshock. This is contrasted with only six of 93 explosions with M > 4 that produce an aftershock greater than M{sub 99} for the same period. If the aftershock magnitude threshold is lowered and the M{sub 90} criteria is used, then no explosions produce an aftershock greater than M{sub 90} for durations that end more than 17 days after the mainshock. The other discriminant defines N{sub X}, or the minimum cumulative number of aftershocks expected for given time after the mainshock with probability X. Similar to the aftershock magnitude discriminant, five earthquakes do not produce more aftershocks than N{sub 99} within 7 days after the mainshock. However, within the same period all but one explosion produce less aftershocks then N{sub 99}. One explosion is added if the duration is shortened to two days after than mainshock. The cumulative number aftershock discriminant is more reliable, especially at short durations, but requires a low magnitude of completeness for the given earthquake catalog. These results at NTS are quite promising and should be evaluated at other nuclear test sites to understand the effects of differences in the geologic setting and nuclear testing practices on its performance.

  2. Earthquake Education in Prime Time

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Groot, R.; Abbott, P.; Benthien, M.

    2004-12-01

    Since 2001, the Southern California Earthquake Center (SCEC) has collaborated on several video production projects that feature important topics related to earthquake science, engineering, and preparedness. These projects have also fostered many fruitful and sustained partnerships with a variety of organizations that have a stake in hazard education and preparedness. The Seismic Sleuths educational video first appeared in the spring season 2001 on Discovery Channel's Assignment Discovery. Seismic Sleuths is based on a highly successful curriculum package developed jointly by the American Geophysical Union and The Department of Homeland Security Federal Emergency Management Agency. The California Earthquake Authority (CEA) and the Institute for Business and Home Safety supported the video project. Summer Productions, a company with a reputation for quality science programming, produced the Seismic Sleuths program in close partnership with scientists, engineers, and preparedness experts. The program has aired on the National Geographic Channel as recently as Fall 2004. Currently, SCEC is collaborating with Pat Abbott, a geology professor at San Diego State University (SDSU) on the video project Written In Stone: Earthquake Country - Los Angeles. Partners on this project include the California Seismic Safety Commission, SDSU, SCEC, CEA, and the Insurance Information Network of California. This video incorporates live-action demonstrations, vivid animations, and a compelling host (Abbott) to tell the story about earthquakes in the Los Angeles region. The Written in Stone team has also developed a comprehensive educator package that includes the video, maps, lesson plans, and other supporting materials. We will present the process that facilitates the creation of visually effective, factually accurate, and entertaining video programs. We acknowledge the need to have a broad understanding of the literature related to communication, media studies, science education, and

  3. Computational methods in earthquake engineering

    CERN Document Server

    Plevris, Vagelis; Lagaros, Nikos

    2017-01-01

    This is the third book in a series on Computational Methods in Earthquake Engineering. The purpose of this volume is to bring together the scientific communities of Computational Mechanics and Structural Dynamics, offering a wide coverage of timely issues on contemporary Earthquake Engineering. This volume will facilitate the exchange of ideas in topics of mutual interest and can serve as a platform for establishing links between research groups with complementary activities. The computational aspects are emphasized in order to address difficult engineering problems of great social and economic importance. .

  4. Operational Earthquake Forecasting: Proposed Guidelines for Implementation (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jordan, T. H.

    2010-12-01

    The goal of operational earthquake forecasting (OEF) is to provide the public with authoritative information about how seismic hazards are changing with time. During periods of high seismic activity, short-term earthquake forecasts based on empirical statistical models can attain nominal probability gains in excess of 100 relative to the long-term forecasts used in probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA). Prospective experiments are underway by the Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP) to evaluate the reliability and skill of these seismicity-based forecasts in a variety of tectonic environments. How such information should be used for civil protection is by no means clear, because even with hundredfold increases, the probabilities of large earthquakes typically remain small, rarely exceeding a few percent over forecasting intervals of days or weeks. Civil protection agencies have been understandably cautious in implementing formal procedures for OEF in this sort of “low-probability environment.” Nevertheless, the need to move more quickly towards OEF has been underscored by recent experiences, such as the 2009 L’Aquila earthquake sequence and other seismic crises in which an anxious public has been confused by informal, inconsistent earthquake forecasts. Whether scientists like it or not, rising public expectations for real-time information, accelerated by the use of social media, will require civil protection agencies to develop sources of authoritative information about the short-term earthquake probabilities. In this presentation, I will discuss guidelines for the implementation of OEF informed by my experience on the California Earthquake Prediction Evaluation Council, convened by CalEMA, and the International Commission on Earthquake Forecasting, convened by the Italian government following the L’Aquila disaster. (a) Public sources of information on short-term probabilities should be authoritative, scientific, open, and

  5. Predictability of Landslide Timing From Quasi-Periodic Precursory Earthquakes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bell, Andrew F.

    2018-02-01

    Accelerating rates of geophysical signals are observed before a range of material failure phenomena. They provide insights into the physical processes controlling failure and the basis for failure forecasts. However, examples of accelerating seismicity before landslides are rare, and their behavior and forecasting potential are largely unknown. Here I use a Bayesian methodology to apply a novel gamma point process model to investigate a sequence of quasiperiodic repeating earthquakes preceding a large landslide at Nuugaatsiaq in Greenland in June 2017. The evolution in earthquake rate is best explained by an inverse power law increase with time toward failure, as predicted by material failure theory. However, the commonly accepted power law exponent value of 1.0 is inconsistent with the data. Instead, the mean posterior value of 0.71 indicates a particularly rapid acceleration toward failure and suggests that only relatively short warning times may be possible for similar landslides in future.

  6. Rapid earthquake detection through GPU-Based template matching

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mu, Dawei; Lee, En-Jui; Chen, Po

    2017-12-01

    The template-matching algorithm (TMA) has been widely adopted for improving the reliability of earthquake detection. The TMA is based on calculating the normalized cross-correlation coefficient (NCC) between a collection of selected template waveforms and the continuous waveform recordings of seismic instruments. In realistic applications, the computational cost of the TMA is much higher than that of traditional techniques. In this study, we provide an analysis of the TMA and show how the GPU architecture provides an almost ideal environment for accelerating the TMA and NCC-based pattern recognition algorithms in general. So far, our best-performing GPU code has achieved a speedup factor of more than 800 with respect to a common sequential CPU code. We demonstrate the performance of our GPU code using seismic waveform recordings from the ML 6.6 Meinong earthquake sequence in Taiwan.

  7. Dancing Earthquake Science Assists Recovery from the Christchurch Earthquakes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Egan, Candice J.; Quigley, Mark C.

    2015-01-01

    The 2010-2012 Christchurch (Canterbury) earthquakes in New Zealand caused loss of life and psychological distress in residents throughout the region. In 2011, student dancers of the Hagley Dance Company and dance professionals choreographed the performance "Move: A Seismic Journey" for the Christchurch Body Festival that explored…

  8. Spatial and Temporal Clustering in a Simple Earthquake Asperity Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tiampo, K. F.; Kazemian, J.; Dominguez, R.; Klein, W.

    2016-12-01

    Natural earthquake fault systems are highly heterogeneous in space, the result of inhomogeneities that are a function of the variety of materials of different strengths. However, despite their inhomogeneous nature, real faults are often modeled as spatially homogeneous systems. Here we present a simple earthquake fault model based on the Olami-Feder-Christensen (OFC) and Rundle-Jackson-Brown (RJB) cellular automata models with long-range interactions that incorporates asperities, or stronger sites, into the lattice (Rundle and Jackson, 1977; Olami et al., 1992). These asperity cells are significantly stronger than the surrounding lattice sites but eventually rupture when the applied stress reaches their higher threshold stress. The introduction of these spatial heterogeneities results in spatial and temporal clustering in the model similar to that seen in natural fault systems. We observe sequences of activity that begin with a gradually accelerating number of larger events, or foreshocks, prior to a large event, followed by a tail of decreasing activity, or aftershocks. These recurrent large events occur at regular intervals and the characteristic time between events and their magnitude are a function of the stress dissipation parameter. The relative length of the foreshock to aftershock sequence depends on the amount of stress dissipation in the system. This work provides further evidence that the spatial and temporal patterns observed in natural seismicity are strongly influenced by the underlying physical properties and are not solely the result of a simple cascade mechanism. We find that the scaling depends not only on the amount of damage, but also on the spatial distribution of that damage (Dominguez et al., 2011; Kazemian et al., 2014). Here we compare the modeled sequences to those of natural earthquake sequences from California and around the world in order to investigate the interplay between cascade dynamics and spatial structure.

  9. Testing hypotheses of earthquake occurrence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kagan, Y. Y.; Jackson, D. D.; Schorlemmer, D.; Gerstenberger, M.

    2003-12-01

    We present a relatively straightforward likelihood method for testing those earthquake hypotheses that can be stated as vectors of earthquake rate density in defined bins of area, magnitude, and time. We illustrate the method as it will be applied to the Regional Earthquake Likelihood Models (RELM) project of the Southern California Earthquake Center (SCEC). Several earthquake forecast models are being developed as part of this project, and additional contributed forecasts are welcome. Various models are based on fault geometry and slip rates, seismicity, geodetic strain, and stress interactions. We would test models in pairs, requiring that both forecasts in a pair be defined over the same set of bins. Thus we offer a standard "menu" of bins and ground rules to encourage standardization. One menu category includes five-year forecasts of magnitude 5.0 and larger. Forecasts would be in the form of a vector of yearly earthquake rates on a 0.05 degree grid at the beginning of the test. Focal mechanism forecasts, when available, would be also be archived and used in the tests. The five-year forecast category may be appropriate for testing hypotheses of stress shadows from large earthquakes. Interim progress will be evaluated yearly, but final conclusions would be made on the basis of cumulative five-year performance. The second category includes forecasts of earthquakes above magnitude 4.0 on a 0.05 degree grid, evaluated and renewed daily. Final evaluation would be based on cumulative performance over five years. Other types of forecasts with different magnitude, space, and time sampling are welcome and will be tested against other models with shared characteristics. All earthquakes would be counted, and no attempt made to separate foreshocks, main shocks, and aftershocks. Earthquakes would be considered as point sources located at the hypocenter. For each pair of forecasts, we plan to compute alpha, the probability that the first would be wrongly rejected in favor of

  10. Detection of Traveling Ionospheric Disturbances Induced by 2010 Mindanao Earthquakes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shahbazi, A.; Park, J.; Huang, C.

    2017-12-01

    Earthquakes precipitate anomalous variations in the concentration of free electrons/ions in the ionosphere being known as the Traveling Ionospheric Disturbance (TID). The TIDs can be detected from the Total Electron Content (TEC), which can be extracted from the ionospheric delay along the ray path of the GNSS signal between a satellite and a receiver. In this study, we utilized the GNSS-derived TEC observed by Communication/Navigation Outage Forecasting System (C/NOFS), which is a Low Earth Orbit (LEO) satellite. As a case study, we detected the ionospheric perturbations triggered by 2010 Mindanao earthquakes in the Moro Gulf, southern Philippines. Since this sequence of the earthquakes was occurred in depths of about 600 km, the low detectability of TID signature was expected while the magnitude of the foreshock, primary shock and aftershock were of 7.3, 7.6, and 7.5 Mb, respectively. Hence, we introduced a novel filtering scheme to assess the performance of space-based TEC observations in identification of earthquake-induced TIDs as well as to cope with the challenge of investigating deep subsequent earthquakes. The proposed approach suppresses the dominant trend of TEC by Hodrick-Prescott (H-P) Filter, which identifies the extremums of the remained signal as the potential TIDs and associates them to the seismic waves. Considering the propagation mechanism of the seismic waves given in the literatures that the wave propagates upward from the earthquake epicenter to the upper atmosphere, and then, moves horizontally through the ionosphere, we applied the first order linear regression model to estimate the propagation velocity of TIDs. Our experimental result demonstrated the vertical propagation velocity of 0.980 km/s and the horizontal propagation velocity through the ionosphere of 1.066 km/s with the std. of 0.364 km/s. The correlation coefficient of the detected TIDs in this model is 0.78 that illustrates the detected TIDs are well correlated with the event

  11. Protracted fluvial recovery from medieval earthquakes, Pokhara, Nepal

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stolle, Amelie; Bernhardt, Anne; Schwanghart, Wolfgang; Andermann, Christoff; Schönfeldt, Elisabeth; Seidemann, Jan; Adhikari, Basanta R.; Merchel, Silke; Rugel, Georg; Fort, Monique; Korup, Oliver

    2016-04-01

    River response to strong earthquake shaking in mountainous terrain often entails the flushing of sediments delivered by widespread co-seismic landsliding. Detailed mass-balance studies following major earthquakes in China, Taiwan, and New Zealand suggest fluvial recovery times ranging from several years to decades. We report a detailed chronology of earthquake-induced valley fills in the Pokhara region of western-central Nepal, and demonstrate that rivers continue to adjust to several large medieval earthquakes to the present day, thus challenging the notion of transient fluvial response to seismic disturbance. The Pokhara valley features one of the largest and most extensively dated sedimentary records of earthquake-triggered sedimentation in the Himalayas, and independently augments paleo-seismological archives obtained mainly from fault trenches and historic documents. New radiocarbon dates from the catastrophically deposited Pokhara Formation document multiple phases of extremely high geomorphic activity between ˜700 and ˜1700 AD, preserved in thick sequences of alternating fluvial conglomerates, massive mud and silt beds, and cohesive debris-flow deposits. These dated fan-marginal slackwater sediments indicate pronounced sediment pulses in the wake of at least three large medieval earthquakes in ˜1100, 1255, and 1344 AD. We combine these dates with digital elevation models, geological maps, differential GPS data, and sediment logs to estimate the extent of these three pulses that are characterized by sedimentation rates of ˜200 mm yr-1 and peak rates as high as 1,000 mm yr-1. Some 5.5 to 9 km3 of material infilled the pre-existing topography, and is now prone to ongoing fluvial dissection along major canyons. Contemporary river incision into the Pokhara Formation is rapid (120-170 mm yr-1), triggering widespread bank erosion, channel changes, and very high sediment yields of the order of 103 to 105 t km-2 yr-1, that by far outweigh bedrock denudation rates

  12. A critical history of British earthquakes

    OpenAIRE

    R. M. W. Musson

    2004-01-01

    This paper reviews the history of the study of historical British earthquakes. The publication of compendia of British earthquakes goes back as early as the late 16th Century. A boost to the study of earthquakes in Britain was given in the mid 18th Century as a result of two events occurring in London in 1750 (analogous to the general increase in earthquakes in Europe five years later after the 1755 Lisbon earthquake). The 19th Century saw a number of significant studies, culminating in th...

  13. Monitoring the West Bohemian earthquake swarm in 2008/2009 by a temporary small-aperture seismic array

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hiemer, Stefan; Rössler, Dirk; Scherbaum, Frank

    2012-01-01

    The most recent intense earthquake swarm in West Bohemia lasted from 6 October 2008 to January 2009. Starting 12 days after the onset, the University of Potsdam monitored the swarm by a temporary small-aperture seismic array at 10 km epicentral distance. The purpose of the installation...... was a complete monitoring of the swarm including micro-earthquakes (ML ... temporal features (frequency– magnitude distribution, propagation of back azimuth and horizontal slowness, occurrence rate of aftershock sequences and interevent-time distribution) of the recent 2008/2009 earthquake swarm are presented and discussed. Temporal changes of the coefficient of variation (based...

  14. A 667 year record of coseismic and interseismic Coulomb stress changes in central Italy reveals the role of fault interaction in controlling irregular earthquake recurrence intervals

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wedmore, L. N. J.; Faure Walker, J. P.; Roberts, G. P.; Sammonds, P. R.; McCaffrey, K. J. W.; Cowie, P. A.

    2017-07-01

    Current studies of fault interaction lack sufficiently long earthquake records and measurements of fault slip rates over multiple seismic cycles to fully investigate the effects of interseismic loading and coseismic stress changes on the surrounding fault network. We model elastic interactions between 97 faults from 30 earthquakes since 1349 A.D. in central Italy to investigate the relative importance of co-seismic stress changes versus interseismic stress accumulation for earthquake occurrence and fault interaction. This region has an exceptionally long, 667 year record of historical earthquakes and detailed constraints on the locations and slip rates of its active normal faults. Of 21 earthquakes since 1654, 20 events occurred on faults where combined coseismic and interseismic loading stresses were positive even though 20% of all faults are in "stress shadows" at any one time. Furthermore, the Coulomb stress on the faults that experience earthquakes is statistically different from a random sequence of earthquakes in the region. We show how coseismic Coulomb stress changes can alter earthquake interevent times by 103 years, and fault length controls the intensity of this effect. Static Coulomb stress changes cause greater interevent perturbations on shorter faults in areas characterized by lower strain (or slip) rates. The exceptional duration and number of earthquakes we model enable us to demonstrate the importance of combining long earthquake records with detailed knowledge of fault geometries, slip rates, and kinematics to understand the impact of stress changes in complex networks of active faults.

  15. Dna Sequencing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tabor, Stanley; Richardson, Charles C.

    1995-04-25

    A method for sequencing a strand of DNA, including the steps off: providing the strand of DNA; annealing the strand with a primer able to hybridize to the strand to give an annealed mixture; incubating the mixture with four deoxyribonucleoside triphosphates, a DNA polymerase, and at least three deoxyribonucleoside triphosphates in different amounts, under conditions in favoring primer extension to form nucleic acid fragments complementory to the DNA to be sequenced; labelling the nucleic and fragments; separating them and determining the position of the deoxyribonucleoside triphosphates by differences in the intensity of the labels, thereby to determine the DNA sequence.

  16. Predecessors of the giant 1960 Chile earthquake.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cisternas, Marco; Atwater, Brian F; Torrejón, Fernando; Sawai, Yuki; Machuca, Gonzalo; Lagos, Marcelo; Eipert, Annaliese; Youlton, Cristián; Salgado, Ignacio; Kamataki, Takanobu; Shishikura, Masanobu; Rajendran, C P; Malik, Javed K; Rizal, Yan; Husni, Muhammad

    2005-09-15

    It is commonly thought that the longer the time since last earthquake, the larger the next earthquake's slip will be. But this logical predictor of earthquake size, unsuccessful for large earthquakes on a strike-slip fault, fails also with the giant 1960 Chile earthquake of magnitude 9.5 (ref. 3). Although the time since the preceding earthquake spanned 123 years (refs 4, 5), the estimated slip in 1960, which occurred on a fault between the Nazca and South American tectonic plates, equalled 250-350 years' worth of the plate motion. Thus the average interval between such giant earthquakes on this fault should span several centuries. Here we present evidence that such long intervals were indeed typical of the last two millennia. We use buried soils and sand layers as records of tectonic subsidence and tsunami inundation at an estuary midway along the 1960 rupture. In these records, the 1960 earthquake ended a recurrence interval that had begun almost four centuries before, with an earthquake documented by Spanish conquistadors in 1575. Two later earthquakes, in 1737 and 1837, produced little if any subsidence or tsunami at the estuary and they therefore probably left the fault partly loaded with accumulated plate motion that the 1960 earthquake then expended.

  17. Summary of earthquake experience database

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1999-01-01

    Strong-motion earthquakes frequently occur throughout the Pacific Basin, where power plants or industrial facilities are included in the affected areas. By studying the performance of these earthquake-affected (or database) facilities, a large inventory of various types of equipment installations can be compiled that have experienced substantial seismic motion. The primary purposes of the seismic experience database are summarized as follows: to determine the most common sources of seismic damage, or adverse effects, on equipment installations typical of industrial facilities; to determine the thresholds of seismic motion corresponding to various types of seismic damage; to determine the general performance of equipment during earthquakes, regardless of the levels of seismic motion; to determine minimum standards in equipment construction and installation, based on past experience, to assure the ability to withstand anticipated seismic loads. To summarize, the primary assumption in compiling an experience database is that the actual seismic hazard to industrial installations is best demonstrated by the performance of similar installations in past earthquakes

  18. Earthquake design for controlled structures

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nikos G. Pnevmatikos

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available An alternative design philosophy, for structures equipped with control devices, capable to resist an expected earthquake while remaining in the elastic range, is described. The idea is that a portion of the earthquake loading is under¬taken by the control system and the remaining by the structure which is designed to resist elastically. The earthquake forces assuming elastic behavior (elastic forces and elastoplastic behavior (design forces are first calculated ac¬cording to the codes. The required control forces are calculated as the difference from elastic to design forces. The maximum value of capacity of control devices is then compared to the required control force. If the capacity of the control devices is larger than the required control force then the control devices are accepted and installed in the structure and the structure is designed according to the design forces. If the capacity is smaller than the required control force then a scale factor, α, reducing the elastic forces to new design forces is calculated. The structure is redesigned and devices are installed. The proposed procedure ensures that the structure behaves elastically (without damage for the expected earthquake at no additional cost, excluding that of buying and installing the control devices.

  19. Control rod behaviour in earthquakes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kawakami, S.; Akiyama, H.; Shibata, H.; Watabe, M.; Ichikawa, T.; Fujita, K.

    1990-01-01

    For some years the Japanese have been working on a major research programme to determine the likely effects of an earthquake on nuclear plant internals. One aspect of this was a study of the behaviour of Pressurized Water Reactor control rods as they are being inserted in the core, which is reported here. (author)

  20. Building Resilient Mountain Communities: Earthquake ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    2015-04-25

    A powerful 7.8 Richter magnitude earthquake hit central Nepal on April 25, 2015, causing over 8,700 deaths and more than 22,000 injuries. Hundreds of thousands of homes were flattened, some 15,000 government buildings and 288,797 residential buildings were destroyed, and some 8,000 schools and 1,000 health ...

  1. Explanation of earthquake response spectra

    OpenAIRE

    Douglas, John

    2017-01-01

    This is a set of five slides explaining how earthquake response spectra are derived from strong-motion records and simple models of structures and their purpose within seismic design and assessment. It dates from about 2002 and I have used it in various introductory lectures on engineering seismology.

  2. Strong Algerian Earthquake Strikes Near Capital City

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ayadi, A.; Maouche, S.; Harbi, A.; Meghraoui, M.; Beldjoudi, H.; Oussadou, F.; Mahsas, A.; Benouar, D.; Heddar, A.; Rouchiche, Y.; Kherroubi, A.; Frogneux, M.; Lammali, K.; Benhamouda, F.; Sebaï, A.; Bourouis, S.; Alasset, P. J.; Aoudia, A.; Cakir, Z.; Merahi, M.; Nouar, O.; Yelles, A.; Bellik, A.; Briole, P.; Charade, O.; Thouvenot, F.; Semane, F.; Ferkoul, A.; Deramchi, A.; Haned, S. A.

    On 21 May 2003, a damaging earthquake of Mw 6.8 struck the region of Boumerdes 40 km east of Algiers in northern Algeria (Figure 1). The mainshock, which lasted ~ 36-40 s, had devastating effects and claimed about 2300 victims, caused more than 11,450 injuries, and left about 200,000 people homeless. It destroyed and seriously damaged around 180,000 housing units and 6000 public buildings with losses estimated at $5 billion. The mainshock was widely felt within a radius of ~ 400 km in Algeria. To the north, the earthquake was felt in southeastern Spain, including the Balearic Islands, and also in Sardinia and in southern France. The mainshock location, which was calculated at 36.91°N, 3.58°E (15 km offshore of Zemmouri; Figure 1), and the local magnitude (Md 6.4) are from seismic records of local stations. International seismological centers obtained Mw 6.8 (NEIC) with a thrust focal mechanism solution and 1.83 × 1026 dyne.cm for the seismic moment. A sequence of aftershocks affected the epicentral area with two strong shocks reaching Mw 5.8 on 27 and 29 May 2003. Field investigations allowed us to assign a maximum intensity X (European Macroseismic Scale 98) and to report rockfalls, minor surface cracks, and liquefaction phenomena. The mainshock was not associated with inland surface faulting, but one of the most striking coseismic effects is the coastal uplift and the backwash along the littoral of the Mitidja basin.

  3. Earthquake swarms in South America

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holtkamp, S. G.; Pritchard, M. E.; Lohman, R. B.

    2011-10-01

    We searched for earthquake swarms in South America between 1973 and 2009 using the global Preliminary Determination of Epicenters (PDE) catalogue. Seismicity rates vary greatly over the South American continent, so we employ a manual search approach that aims to be insensitive to spatial and temporal scales or to the number of earthquakes in a potential swarm. We identify 29 possible swarms involving 5-180 earthquakes each (with total swarm moment magnitudes between 4.7 and 6.9) within a range of tectonic and volcanic locations. Some of the earthquake swarms on the subduction megathrust occur as foreshocks and delineate the limits of main shock rupture propagation for large earthquakes, including the 2010 Mw 8.8 Maule, Chile and 2007 Mw 8.1 Pisco, Peru earthquakes. Also, subduction megathrust swarms commonly occur at the location of subduction of aseismic ridges, including areas of long-standing seismic gaps in Peru and Ecuador. The magnitude-frequency relationship of swarms we observe appears to agree with previously determined magnitude-frequency scaling for swarms in Japan. We examine geodetic data covering five of the swarms to search for an aseismic component. Only two of these swarms (at Copiapó, Chile, in 2006 and near Ticsani Volcano, Peru, in 2005) have suitable satellite-based Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) observations. We invert the InSAR geodetic signal and find that the ground deformation associated with these swarms does not require a significant component of aseismic fault slip or magmatic intrusion. Three swarms in the vicinity of the volcanic arc in southern Peru appear to be triggered by the Mw= 8.5 2001 Peru earthquake, but predicted static Coulomb stress changes due to the main shock were very small at the swarm locations, suggesting that dynamic triggering processes may have had a role in their occurrence. Although we identified few swarms in volcanic regions, we suggest that particularly large volcanic swarms (those that

  4. Local magnitude, duration magnitude and seismic moment of Dahshour 1992 earthquakes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dessokey, M.M.; Abdelwahed, M.F. [National research Institute of Astronomy and Geophysics, Cairo (Egypt). Dept. of Seismology; Hussein, H.M.; Abdelrahman, El. M. [Cairo Univ., Cairo (Egypt). Dept. of Geophysics

    2000-02-01

    Local magnitude M{sub L} have been calculated for 56 earthquakes of the Dahshour 1992 sequence using simulated records of the KEG broadband station and estimated calibration function of the area. The measurements, derived by the simulated Wood Anderson seismograms, are analysed and discussed.

  5. Procedures and criteria for increasing the earthquake resistance level of electrical substations and special installations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Couch, R.W.; Deacon, R.J.

    1973-09-30

    This report defines a procedure and provides basic information needed to determine the modifications required to make electrical substations and special installations of the Bonneville Power Administration (BPA) more resistant to strong earthquake ground motion. It also provides a procedure for developing an effective plan for establishing the sequence, or priority, of providing the required modifications.

  6. Space-time behavior of continental intraplate earthquakes and implications for hazard assessment in China and the Central U.S.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stein, Seth; Liu, Mian; Luo, Gang; Wang, Hui

    2014-05-01

    Earthquakes in midcontinents and those at plate boundaries behave quite differently in space and time, owing to the geometry of faults and the rate at which they are loaded. Faults at plate boundaries are loaded at constant rates by steady relative plate motion. Consequently, earthquakes concentrate along the plate boundary faults, and show quasi-periodic occurrences, although the actual temporal patterns are often complicated. However, in midcontinents, the tectonic loading is shared by a complex system of interacting faults spread over a large region, such that a large earthquake on one fault could increase the loading rates on remote faults in the system. Because the low tectonic loading rate is shared by many faults in midcontinents, individual faults may remain dormant for a long time and then become active for a short period. The resulting earthquakes are therefore episodic and spatially migrating. These effects can be seen in many areas, with a prime example being a 2000-year record from North China, which shows migration of large earthquakes between fault systems spread over a large region such that no large earthquakes rupture the same fault segment twice. Because seismic activity within mid-continents is usually much lower than that along plate boundary zones, even small earthquakes can cause widespread concerns, especially when these events occur in the source regions of previous large earthquakes. However, these small earthquakes may be aftershocks that continue for decades or even longer, because aftershock sequences often last much longer in midcontinents where tectonic loading is slow, than at plate boundaries. The recent seismicity in the Tangshan region in North China is likely aftershocks of the 1976 M7.8 Tangshan earthquake. Similarly, current seismicity in the New Madrid seismic zone in central U.S. appears to be aftershocks of a cluster of M ~7.0 events in 1811-1812. These large events and similar events in the past millennium release strain

  7. Distinguishing megathrust from intraplate earthquakes using lacustrine turbidites (Laguna Lo Encañado, Central Chile)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Van Daele, Maarten; Araya-Cornejo, Cristian; Pille, Thomas; Meyer, Inka; Kempf, Philipp; Moernaut, Jasper; Cisternas, Marco

    2017-04-01

    triggered by megathrust earthquakes. These findings are an important step forward in the interpretation of lacustrine turbidites in subduction settings, and will eventually improve hazard assessments based on such paleoseismic records in the study area, and in other subduction zones. References Howarth et al., 2014. Lake sediments record high intensity shaking that provides insight into the location and rupture length of large earthquakes on the Alpine Fault, New Zealand. Earth and Planetary Science Letters 403, 340-351. Lomnitz, 1960. A study of the Maipo Valley earthquakes of September 4, 1958, Second World Conference on Earthquake Engineering, Tokyo and Kyoto, Japan, pp. 501-520. Sepulveda et al., 2008. New Findings on the 1958 Las Melosas Earthquake Sequence, Central Chile: Implications for Seismic Hazard Related to Shallow Crustal Earthquakes in Subduction Zones. Journal of Earthquake Engineering 12, 432-455. Van Daele et al., 2015. A comparison of the sedimentary records of the 1960 and 2010 great Chilean earthquakes in 17 lakes: Implications for quantitative lacustrine palaeoseismology. Sedimentology 62, 1466-1496.

  8. Earthquake sources near Uturuncu Volcano

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keyson, L.; West, M. E.

    2013-12-01

    Uturuncu, located in southern Bolivia near the Chile and Argentina border, is a dacitic volcano that was last active 270 ka. It is a part of the Altiplano-Puna Volcanic Complex, which spans 50,000 km2 and is comprised of a series of ignimbrite flare-ups since ~23 ma. Two sets of evidence suggest that the region is underlain by a significant magma body. First, seismic velocities show a low velocity layer consistent with a magmatic sill below depths of 15-20 km. This inference is corroborated by high electrical conductivity between 10km and 30km. This magma body, the so called Altiplano-Puna Magma Body (APMB) is the likely source of volcanic activity in the region. InSAR studies show that during the 1990s, the volcano experienced an average uplift of about 1 to 2 cm per year. The deformation is consistent with an expanding source at depth. Though the Uturuncu region exhibits high rates of crustal seismicity, any connection between the inflation and the seismicity is unclear. We investigate the root causes of these earthquakes using a temporary network of 33 seismic stations - part of the PLUTONS project. Our primary approach is based on hypocenter locations and magnitudes paired with correlation-based relative relocation techniques. We find a strong tendency toward earthquake swarms that cluster in space and time. These swarms often last a few days and consist of numerous earthquakes with similar source mechanisms. Most seismicity occurs in the top 10 kilometers of the crust and is characterized by well-defined phase arrivals and significant high frequency content. The frequency-magnitude relationship of this seismicity demonstrates b-values consistent with tectonic sources. There is a strong clustering of earthquakes around the Uturuncu edifice. Earthquakes elsewhere in the region align in bands striking northwest-southeast consistent with regional stresses.

  9. Role of stress triggering in earthquake migration on the North Anatolian fault

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stein, R.S.; Dieterich, J.H.; Barka, A.A.

    1996-01-01

    Ten M???6.7 earthquakes ruptured 1,000 km of the North Anatolian fault (Turkey) during 1939-92, providing an unsurpassed opportunity to study how one large shock sets up the next. Calculations of the change in Coulomb failure stress reveal that 9 out of 10 ruptures were brought closer to failure by the preceding shocks, typically by 5 bars, equivalent to 20 years of secular stressing. We translate the calculated stress changes into earthquake probabilities using an earthquake-nucleation constitutive relation, which includes both permanent and transient stress effects. For the typical 10-year period between triggering and subsequent rupturing shocks in the Anatolia sequence, the stress changes yield an average three-fold gain in the ensuing earthquake probability. Stress is now calculated to be high at several isolated sites along the fault. During the next 30 years, we estimate a 15% probability of a M???6.7 earthquake east of the major eastern center of Erzincan, and a 12% probability for a large event south of the major western port city of Izmit. Such stress-based probability calculations may thus be useful to assess and update earthquake hazards elsewhere. ?? 1997 Elsevier Science Ltd.

  10. Application of Geostatistical Methods and Machine Learning for spatio-temporal Earthquake Cluster Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schaefer, A. M.; Daniell, J. E.; Wenzel, F.

    2014-12-01

    Earthquake clustering tends to be an increasingly important part of general earthquake research especially in terms of seismic hazard assessment and earthquake forecasting and prediction approaches. The distinct identification and definition of foreshocks, aftershocks, mainshocks and secondary mainshocks is taken into account using a point based spatio-temporal clustering algorithm originating from the field of classic machine learning. This can be further applied for declustering purposes to separate background seismicity from triggered seismicity. The results are interpreted and processed to assemble 3D-(x,y,t) earthquake clustering maps which are based on smoothed seismicity records in space and time. In addition, multi-dimensional Gaussian functions are used to capture clustering parameters for spatial distribution and dominant orientations. Clusters are further processed using methodologies originating from geostatistics, which have been mostly applied and developed in mining projects during the last decades. A 2.5D variogram analysis is applied to identify spatio-temporal homogeneity in terms of earthquake density and energy output. The results are mitigated using Kriging to provide an accurate mapping solution for clustering features. As a case study, seismic data of New Zealand and the United States is used, covering events since the 1950s, from which an earthquake cluster catalogue is assembled for most of the major events, including a detailed analysis of the Landers and Christchurch sequences.

  11. Fault healing promotes high-frequency earthquakes in laboratory experiments and on natural faults

    Science.gov (United States)

    McLaskey, Gregory C.; Thomas, Amanda M.; Glaser, Steven D.; Nadeau, Robert M.

    2012-01-01

    Faults strengthen or heal with time in stationary contact and this healing may be an essential ingredient for the generation of earthquakes. In the laboratory, healing is thought to be the result of thermally activated mechanisms that weld together micrometre-sized asperity contacts on the fault surface, but the relationship between laboratory measures of fault healing and the seismically observable properties of earthquakes is at present not well defined. Here we report on laboratory experiments and seismological observations that show how the spectral properties of earthquakes vary as a function of fault healing time. In the laboratory, we find that increased healing causes a disproportionately large amount of high-frequency seismic radiation to be produced during fault rupture. We observe a similar connection between earthquake spectra and recurrence time for repeating earthquake sequences on natural faults. Healing rates depend on pressure, temperature and mineralogy, so the connection between seismicity and healing may help to explain recent observations of large megathrust earthquakes which indicate that energetic, high-frequency seismic radiation originates from locations that are distinct from the geodetically inferred locations of large-amplitude fault slip

  12. Seismic dynamics in advance and after the recent strong earthquakes in Italy and New Zealand

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nekrasova, A.; Kossobokov, V. G.

    2017-12-01

    We consider seismic events as a sequence of avalanches in self-organized system of blocks-and-faults of the Earth lithosphere and characterize earthquake series with the distribution of the control parameter, η = τ × 10B × (5-M) × L C of the Unified Scaling Law for Earthquakes, USLE (where τ is inter-event time, B is analogous to the Gutenberg-Richter b-value, and C is fractal dimension of seismic locus). A systematic analysis of earthquake series in Central Italy and New Zealand, 1993-2017, suggests the existence, in a long-term, of different rather steady levels of seismic activity characterized with near constant values of η, which, in mid-term, intermittently switch at times of transitions associated with the strong catastrophic events. On such a transition, seismic activity, in short-term, may follow different scenarios with inter-event time scaling of different kind, including constant, logarithmic, power law, exponential rise/decay or a mixture of those. The results do not support the presence of universality in seismic energy release. The observed variability of seismic activity in advance and after strong (M6.0+) earthquakes in Italy and significant (M7.0+) earthquakes in New Zealand provides important constraints on modelling realistic earthquake sequences by geophysicists and can be used to improve local seismic hazard assessments including earthquake forecast/prediction methodologies. The transitions of seismic regime in Central Italy and New Zealand started in 2016 are still in progress and require special attention and geotechnical monitoring. It would be premature to make any kind of definitive conclusions on the level of seismic hazard which is evidently high at this particular moment of time in both regions. The study supported by the Russian Science Foundation Grant No.16-17-00093.

  13. Countermeasures to earthquakes in nuclear plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sato, Kazuhide

    1979-01-01

    The contribution of atomic energy to mankind is unmeasured, but the danger of radioactivity is a special thing. Therefore in the design of nuclear power plants, the safety has been regarded as important, and in Japan where earthquakes occur frequently, the countermeasures to earthquakes have been incorporated in the examination of safety naturally. The radioactive substances handled in nuclear power stations and spent fuel reprocessing plants are briefly explained. The occurrence of earthquakes cannot be predicted effectively, and the disaster due to earthquakes is apt to be remarkably large. In nuclear plants, the prevention of damage in the facilities and the maintenance of the functions are required at the time of earthquakes. Regarding the location of nuclear plants, the history of earthquakes, the possible magnitude of earthquakes, the properties of ground and the position of nuclear plants should be examined. After the place of installation has been decided, the earthquake used for design is selected, evaluating live faults and determining the standard earthquakes. As the fundamentals of aseismatic design, the classification according to importance, the earthquakes for design corresponding to the classes of importance, the combination of loads and allowable stress are explained. (Kako, I.)

  14. Napa earthquake: An earthquake in a highly connected world

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bossu, R.; Steed, R.; Mazet-Roux, G.; Roussel, F.

    2014-12-01

    The Napa earthquake recently occurred close to Silicon Valley. This makes it a good candidate to study what social networks, wearable objects and website traffic analysis (flashsourcing) can tell us about the way eyewitnesses react to ground shaking. In the first part, we compare the ratio of people publishing tweets and with the ratio of people visiting EMSC (European Mediterranean Seismological Centre) real time information website in the first minutes following the earthquake occurrence to the results published by Jawbone, which show that the proportion of people waking up depends (naturally) on the epicentral distance. The key question to evaluate is whether the proportions of inhabitants tweeting or visiting the EMSC website are similar to the proportion of people waking up as shown by the Jawbone data. If so, this supports the premise that all methods provide a reliable image of the relative ratio of people waking up. The second part of the study focuses on the reaction time for both Twitter and EMSC website access. We show, similarly to what was demonstrated for the Mineral, Virginia, earthquake (Bossu et al., 2014), that hit times on the EMSC website follow the propagation of the P waves and that 2 minutes of website traffic is sufficient to determine the epicentral location of an earthquake on the other side of the Atlantic. We also compare with the publication time of messages on Twitter. Finally, we check whether the number of tweets and the number of visitors relative to the number of inhabitants is correlated to the local level of shaking. Together these results will tell us whether the reaction of eyewitnesses to ground shaking as observed through Twitter and the EMSC website analysis is tool specific (i.e. specific to Twitter or EMSC website) or whether they do reflect people's actual reactions.

  15. Estimation of source parameters of Chamoli Earthquake, India

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    R. Narasimhan, Krishtel eMaging Solutions

    experienced two more devastating earthquakes of magnitude greater than 6.0 in the last decade namely the Uttarkashi earthquake in 1991 and the Chamoli earthquake in 1999 (Rajendran et al 2000, Rastogi. 2000). The effect of these earthquakes was felt up to approx. 300 km. in the city of Delhi. In the recent earthquake ...

  16. Regulatory point of view on Hengchun earthquake

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Niu, H.C.; Hsu, M.T.; Chen, Y.B.

    2008-01-01

    At the night of December 26th, 2006, a series of earthquakes struck Hengchun area where Maanshan NPS (MNPS) is located. Two main earthquakes with magnitude of 7.0 (Richters scale) occurred at 20:26 and 20:34 respectively. The epicenter of 20:34 earthquake, which was closer to the seashore than 20:26 earthquake, located at 33.5 Km west from MNPS and 50.2 Km depth down the surface. Before the earthquake, both MNPS units were at rated power operation. The unit no.2 operators tripped Reactor manually due to high vibration alarms from reactor coolant pumps and main turbine. While unit no.1 operators had decided to take the same action, the intensity of earthquake became less and less, so the shift supervisor made decision to keep unit no.1 in operation. The maximum peak ground acceleration recorded by MNPS seismic monitoring system was 0.16g which was still under MNPS seismic design basis, safe shutdown earthquake (SEE: 0.4g) and operating basis earthquake (OBE: 0.2g). The post-earthquake inspection of both units showed that there was no major damage on all SSCs. It still was the strongest earthquake which have ever been recorded in Taiwan's NPS site area since 1978, the first nuclear power station declared commercial operation. From regulatory point of view, it is important by taking account of the experience and lessons learned from Hengchun Earthquake. Especially, the training requirements of operators, the standard operating procedures during and after the earthquake need to be re-evaluated to enhance the ability to prevent the hazard during an earthquake event. (author)

  17. Update earthquake risk assessment in Cairo, Egypt

    Science.gov (United States)

    Badawy, Ahmed; Korrat, Ibrahim; El-Hadidy, Mahmoud; Gaber, Hanan

    2017-07-01

    The Cairo earthquake (12 October 1992; m b = 5.8) is still and after 25 years one of the most painful events and is dug into the Egyptians memory. This is not due to the strength of the earthquake but due to the accompanied losses and damages (561 dead; 10,000 injured and 3000 families lost their homes). Nowadays, the most frequent and important question that should rise is "what if this earthquake is repeated today." In this study, we simulate the same size earthquake (12 October 1992) ground motion shaking and the consequent social-economic impacts in terms of losses and damages. Seismic hazard, earthquake catalogs, soil types, demographics, and building inventories were integrated into HAZUS-MH to produce a sound earthquake risk assessment for Cairo including economic and social losses. Generally, the earthquake risk assessment clearly indicates that "the losses and damages may be increased twice or three times" in Cairo compared to the 1992 earthquake. The earthquake risk profile reveals that five districts (Al-Sahel, El Basateen, Dar El-Salam, Gharb, and Madinat Nasr sharq) lie in high seismic risks, and three districts (Manshiyat Naser, El-Waily, and Wassat (center)) are in low seismic risk level. Moreover, the building damage estimations reflect that Gharb is the highest vulnerable district. The analysis shows that the Cairo urban area faces high risk. Deteriorating buildings and infrastructure make the city particularly vulnerable to earthquake risks. For instance, more than 90 % of the estimated buildings damages are concentrated within the most densely populated (El Basateen, Dar El-Salam, Gharb, and Madinat Nasr Gharb) districts. Moreover, about 75 % of casualties are in the same districts. Actually, an earthquake risk assessment for Cairo represents a crucial application of the HAZUS earthquake loss estimation model for risk management. Finally, for mitigation, risk reduction, and to improve the seismic performance of structures and assure life safety

  18. Evaluation of earthquake vibration on aseismic design of nuclear power plant judging from recent earthquakes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dan, Kazuo

    2006-01-01

    The Regulatory Guide for Aseismic Design of Nuclear Reactor Facilities was revised on 19 th September, 2006. Six factors for evaluation of earthquake vibration are considered on the basis of the recent earthquakes. They are 1) evaluation of earthquake vibration by method using fault model, 2) investigation and approval of active fault, 3) direct hit earthquake, 4) assumption of the short active fault as the hypocentral fault, 5) locality of the earthquake and the earthquake vibration and 6) remaining risk. A guiding principle of revision required new evaluation method of earthquake vibration using fault model, and evaluation of probability of earthquake vibration. The remaining risk means the facilities and people get into danger when stronger earthquake than the design occurred, accordingly, the scattering has to be considered at evaluation of earthquake vibration. The earthquake belt of Hyogo-Nanbu earthquake and strong vibration pulse in 1995, relation between length of surface earthquake fault and hypocentral fault, and distribution of seismic intensity of off Kushiro in 1993 are shown. (S.Y.)

  19. Istanbul Earthquake Early Warning System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alcik, H.; Mert, A.; Ozel, O.; Erdik, M.

    2007-12-01

    As part of the preparations for the future earthquake in Istanbul a Rapid Response and Early Warning system in the metropolitan area is in operation. For the Early Warning system ten strong motion stations were installed as close as possible to the fault zone. Continuous on-line data from these stations via digital radio modem provide early warning for potentially disastrous earthquakes. Considering the complexity of fault rupture and the short fault distances involved, a simple and robust Early Warning algorithm, based on the exceedance of specified threshold time domain amplitude levels is implemented. The band-pass filtered accelerations and the cumulative absolute velocity (CAV) are compared with specified threshold levels. When any acceleration or CAV (on any channel) in a given station exceeds specific threshold values it is considered a vote. Whenever we have 2 station votes within selectable time interval, after the first vote, the first alarm is declared. In order to specify the appropriate threshold levels a data set of near field strong ground motions records form Turkey and the world has been analyzed. Correlations among these thresholds in terms of the epicenter distance the magnitude of the earthquake have been studied. The encrypted early warning signals will be communicated to the respective end users. Depending on the location of the earthquake (initiation of fault rupture) and the recipient facility the alarm time can be as high as about 8s. The first users of the early warning signal will be the Istanbul gas company (IGDAS) and the metro line using the immersed tube tunnel (MARMARAY). Other prospective users are power plants and power distribution systems, nuclear research facilities, critical chemical factories, petroleum facilities and high-rise buildings. In this study, different algorithms based on PGA, CAV and various definitions of instrumental intensity will be discussed and triggering threshold levels of these parameters will be studied

  20. High resolution measurement of earthquake impacts on rock slope stability and damage using pre- and post-earthquake terrestrial laser scans

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hutchinson, Lauren; Stead, Doug; Rosser, Nick

    2017-04-01

    Understanding the behaviour of rock slopes in response to earthquake shaking is instrumental in response and relief efforts following large earthquakes as well as to ongoing risk management in earthquake affected areas. Assessment of the effects of seismic shaking on rock slope kinematics requires detailed surveys of the pre- and post-earthquake condition of the slope; however, at present, there is a lack of high resolution monitoring data from pre- and post-earthquake to facilitate characterization of seismically induced slope damage and validate models used to back-analyze rock slope behaviour during and following earthquake shaking. Therefore, there is a need for additional research where pre- and post- earthquake monitoring data is available. This paper presents the results of a direct comparison between terrestrial laser scans (TLS) collected in 2014, the year prior to the 2015 earthquake sequence, with that collected 18 months after the earthquakes and two monsoon cycles. The two datasets were collected using Riegl VZ-1000 and VZ-4000 full waveform laser scanners with high resolution (c. 0.1 m point spacing as a minimum). The scans cover the full landslide affected slope from the toe to the crest. The slope is located in Sindhupalchok District, Central Nepal which experienced some of the highest co-seismic and post-seismic landslide intensities across Nepal due to the proximity to the epicenters (<20 km) of both of the main aftershocks on April 26, 2015 (M 6.7) and May 12, 2015 (M7.3). During the 2015 earthquakes and subsequent 2015 and 2016 monsoons, the slope experienced rockfall and debris flows which are evident in satellite imagery and field photographs. Fracturing of the rock mass associated with the seismic shaking is also evident at scales not accessible through satellite and field observations. The results of change detection between the TLS datasets with an emphasis on quantification of seismically-induced slope damage is presented. Patterns in the

  1. Source parameters of microearthquakes on an interplate asperity off Kamaishi, NE Japan over two earthquake cycles

    Science.gov (United States)

    Uchida, Naoki; Matsuzawa, Toru; Ellsworth, William L.; Imanishi, Kazutoshi; Shimamura, Kouhei; Hasegawa, Akira

    2012-01-01

    We have estimated the source parameters of interplate earthquakes in an earthquake cluster off Kamaishi, NE Japan over two cycles of M~ 4.9 repeating earthquakes. The M~ 4.9 earthquake sequence is composed of nine events that occurred since 1957 which have a strong periodicity (5.5 ± 0.7 yr) and constant size (M4.9 ± 0.2), probably due to stable sliding around the source area (asperity). Using P- and S-wave traveltime differentials estimated from waveform cross-spectra, three M~ 4.9 main shocks and 50 accompanying microearthquakes (M1.5–3.6) from 1995 to 2008 were precisely relocated. The source sizes, stress drops and slip amounts for earthquakes of M2.4 or larger were also estimated from corner frequencies and seismic moments using simultaneous inversion of stacked spectral ratios. Relocation using the double-difference method shows that the slip area of the 2008 M~ 4.9 main shock is co-located with those of the 1995 and 2001 M~ 4.9 main shocks. Four groups of microearthquake clusters are located in and around the mainshock slip areas. Of these, two clusters are located at the deeper and shallower edge of the slip areas and most of these microearthquakes occurred repeatedly in the interseismic period. Two other clusters located near the centre of the mainshock source areas are not as active as the clusters near the edge. The occurrence of these earthquakes is limited to the latter half of the earthquake cycles of the M~ 4.9 main shock. Similar spatial and temporal features of microearthquake occurrence were seen for two other cycles before the 1995 M5.0 and 1990 M5.0 main shocks based on group identification by waveform similarities. Stress drops of microearthquakes are 3–11 MPa and are relatively constant within each group during the two earthquake cycles. The 2001 and 2008 M~ 4.9 earthquakes have larger stress drops of 41 and 27 MPa, respectively. These results show that the stress drop is probably determined by the fault properties and does not change

  2. Emergency feature. Great east Japan earthquake disaster Fukushima Daiichi accident

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kawata, Tomio; Tsujikura, Yonezo; Kitamura, Toshiro

    2011-01-01

    The Tohoku Pacific Ocean earthquake occurred in March 11, 2011. The disastrous tsunami attacked Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plants after automatically shutdown by the earthquake and all motor operated pumps became inoperable due to station black out. Despite the strenuous efforts of operators, if caused serious accident such as loss of cooling function, hydrogen explosion and release of large amount of radioactive materials into the environment, leading to nuclear power emergency that ordered resident to evacuate or remain indoors. This emergency feature consisted of four articles. The first was the interview with the president of JAIF (Japan Atomic Industrial Forum) on how to identify the cause of the accident completely, intensify safety assurance measures and promote discussions on a role of nuclear power in the nation's entire energy policy toward the reconstruction. Others were reactor states and events sequence after the accident with trend data of radiation in the reactor site, statement of president of AESJ (Atomic Energy Society of Japan) on nuclear crisis following Tohoku Pacific Ocean earthquake our response and my experience in evacuation life. (T. Tanaka)

  3. Biological Anomalies around the 2009 L'Aquila Earthquake.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fidani, Cristiano

    2013-08-06

    The April 6, 2009 L'Aquila earthquake was the strongest seismic event to occur in Italy over the last thirty years with a magnitude of M = 6.3. Around the time of the seismic swarm many instruments were operating in Central Italy, even if not dedicated to biological effects associated with the stress field variations, including seismicity. Testimonies were collected using a specific questionnaire immediately after the main shock, including data on earthquake lights, gas leaks, human diseases, and irregular animal behavior. The questionnaire was made up of a sequence of arguments, based upon past historical earthquake observations and compiled over seven months after the main shock. Data on animal behavior, before, during and after the main shocks, were analyzed in space/time distributions with respect to the epicenter area, evidencing the specific responses of different animals. Several instances of strange animal behavior were observed which could causally support the hypotheses that they were induced by the physical presence of gas, electric charges and electromagnetic waves in atmosphere. The aim of this study was to order the biological observations and thereby allow future work to determine whether these observations were influenced by geophysical parameters.

  4. Potential Lacustrine Records of Cascadia Great Earthquakes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morey, A. E.; Goldfinger, C.; Briles, C.; Gavin, D. G.; Colombaroli, D.

    2011-12-01

    remarkably similar to those found at the Smith Apron offshore site approximately 160 km away. Striking correlation examples include a multiple peaked event or events at ~1500 years before present (ybp), a single peak fining upward with a small excursion near the top of the sequence at ~1000 ybp, and a large single peak for an event poorly constrained at ~500 ybp. The number of observed events is also comparable to those found at the Oregon coastal site Bradley Lake which records tsunami inundation. The great distance and multiple depositional environments over which these events correlate suggests these are earthquake-generated deposits and supports the hypothesis that gravity-driven seismogenic sediment deposits may record a crude primary signal of shaking which we call a "paleoseismogram". We hope to expand this investigation, by increasing the number of inland sites to be used in conjunction with marine and coastal records, to refine Cascadia paleo-rupture models by improving estimates of along-strike segmentation and the down-dip extent of the locked zone.

  5. Great East Japan Earthquake Tsunami

    Science.gov (United States)

    Iijima, Y.; Minoura, K.; Hirano, S.; Yamada, T.

    2011-12-01

    The 11 March 2011, Mw 9.0 Great East Japan Earthquake, already among the most destructive earthquakes in modern history, emanated from a fault rupture that extended an estimated 500 km along the Pacific coast of Honshu. This earthquake is the fourth among five of the strongest temblors since AD 1900 and the largest in Japan since modern instrumental recordings began 130 years ago. The earthquake triggered a huge tsunami, which invaded the seaside areas of the Pacific coast of East Japan, causing devastating damages on the coast. Artificial structures were destroyed and planted forests were thoroughly eroded. Inrush of turbulent flows washed backshore areas and dunes. Coastal materials including beach sand were transported onto inland areas by going-up currents. Just after the occurrence of the tsunami, we started field investigation of measuring thickness and distribution of sediment layers by the tsunami and the inundation depth of water in Sendai plain. Ripple marks showing direction of sediment transport were the important object of observation. We used a soil auger for collecting sediments in the field, and sediment samples were submitted for analyzing grain size and interstitial water chemistry. Satellite images and aerial photographs are very useful for estimating the hydrogeological effects of tsunami inundation. We checked the correspondence of micro-topography, vegetation and sediment covering between before and after the tsunami. The most conspicuous phenomenon is the damage of pine forests planted in the purpose of preventing sand shifting. About ninety-five percent of vegetation coverage was lost during the period of rapid currents changed from first wave. The landward slopes of seawalls were mostly damaged and destroyed. Some aerial photographs leave detailed records of wave destruction just behind seawalls, which shows the occurrence of supercritical flows. The large-scale erosion of backshore behind seawalls is interpreted to have been caused by

  6. Earthquake lights and rupture processes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. V. Losseva

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available A physical model of earthquake lights is proposed. It is suggested that the magnetic diffusion from the electric and magnetic fields source region is a dominant process, explaining rather high localization of the light flashes. A 3D numerical code allowing to take into account the arbitrary distribution of currents caused by ground motion, conductivity in the ground and at its surface, including the existence of sea water above the epicenter or (and near the ruptured segments of the fault have been developed. Simulations for the 1995 Kobe earthquake were conducted taking into account the existence of sea water with realistic geometry of shores. The results do not contradict the eyewitness reports and scarce measurements of the electric and magnetic fields at large distances from the epicenter.

  7. THE RESPONSE OF MONTEREY BAY TO THE 2010 CHILEAN EARTHQUAKE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Laurence C. Breaker

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available The primary frequencies contained in the arrival sequence produced by the tsunami from the Chilean earthquake of 2010 in Monterey Bay were extracted to determine the seiche modes that were produced. Singular Spectrum Analysis (SSA and Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition (EEMD were employed to extract the primary frequencies of interest. The wave train from the Chilean tsunami lasted for at least four days due to multipath arrivals that may not have included reflections from outside the bay but most likely did include secondary undulations, and energy trapping in the form of edge waves, inside the bay. The SSA decomposition resolved oscillations with periods of 52-57, 34-35, 26-27, and 21-22 minutes, all frequencies that have been predicted and/or observed in previous studies. The EEMD decomposition detected oscillations with periods of 50-55 and 21-22 minutes. Periods in the range of 50-57 minutes varied due to measurement uncertainties but almost certainly correspond to the first longitudinal mode of oscillation for Monterey Bay, periods of 34-35 minutes correspond to the first transverse mode of oscillation that assumes a nodal line across the entrance of the bay, a period of 26- 27 minutes, although previously observed, may not represent a fundamental oscillation, and a period of 21-22 minutes has been predicted and observed previously. A period of ~37 minutes, close to the period of 34-35 minutes, was generated by the Great Alaskan Earthquake of 1964 in Monterey Bay and most likely represents the same mode of oscillation. The tsunamis associated with the Great Alaskan Earthquake and the Chilean Earthquake both entered Monterey Bay but initially arrived outside the bay from opposite directions. Unlike the Great Alaskan Earthquake, however, which excited only one resonant mode inside the bay, the Chilean Earthquake excited several modes suggesting that the asymmetric shape of the entrance to Monterey Bay was an important factor and that the

  8. Investigation of intraplate seismicity near the sites of the 2012 major strike-slip earthquakes in the eastern Indian Ocean through a passive-source OBS experiment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guo, L.; Lin, J.; Yang, H.

    2017-12-01

    The 11 April 2012 Mw8.6 earthquake off the coast of Sumatra in the eastern Indian Ocean was the largest strike-slip earthquake ever recorded. The 2012 mainshock and its aftershock sequences were associated with complex slip partitioning and earthquake interactions of an oblique convergent system, in a new plate boundary zone between the Indian and Australian plates. The detail processes of the earthquake interactions and correlation with seafloor geological structure, however, are still poorly known. During March-April 2017, an array of broadband OBS (ocean bottom seismometer) were deployed, for the first time, near the epicenter region of the 2012 earthquake sequence. During post-expedition data processing, we identified 70 global earthquakes from the National Earthquake Information Center (NEIC) catalog that occurred during our OBS deployment period. We then picked P and S waves in the seismic records and analyzed their arrival times. We further identified and analyzed multiple local earthquakes and examined their relationship to the observed seafloor structure (fracture zones, seafloor faults, etc.) and the state of stresses in this region of the eastern Indian Ocean. The ongoing analyses of the data obtained from this unique seismic experiment are expected to provide important constraints on the large-scale intraplate deformation in this part of the eastern Indian Ocean.

  9. Dim prospects for earthquake prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Geller, Robert J.

    I was misquoted by C. Lomnitz's [1998] Forum letter (Eos, August 4, 1998, p. 373), which said: [I wonder whether Sasha Gusev [1998] actually believes that branding earthquake prediction a ‘proven nonscience’ [Geller, 1997a] is a paradigm for others to copy.”Readers are invited to verify for themselves that neither “proven nonscience” norv any similar phrase was used by Geller [1997a].

  10. Earthquake Source Parameters for the 2010 Western Gulf of Aden Rifting Episode

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shuler, A. E.; Nettles, M.

    2011-12-01

    In November 2010, one of the largest swarms of earthquakes ever recorded in an extensional oceanic setting took place in the western Gulf of Aden. Within a 24-hour period, over 100 earthquakes were detected teleseismically on an ~80-km section of the east-west trending Aden Ridge. In this area, northeastward motion of the Arabian plate relative to the Somalian plate is accommodated by oblique spreading in lithosphere that is intermediate between continental and oceanic. These earthquakes occurred in an area that was previously characterized by low levels of seismicity and a lack of recent volcanism on the seafloor. In this study, we use data from the Global Seismographic Network to calculate centroid-moment-tensor (CMT) solutions for 110 earthquakes with magnitudes 4.5 ≤ Mw ≤ 5.5. We find that the rifting episode is dominated by normal-faulting earthquakes located in the axial valley between 43.75° and 44.5°E, although a small number of right-lateral strike-slip earthquakes are also observed. The earthquakes are clustered into two groups surrounding 44°E, where the axial valley changes orientation, depth and width. These groups correspond to mapped rhombic basins, which were active at different times during the sequence. Overall there is excellent agreement between the orientations of previously mapped faults and fault-plane solutions from CMT analysis, indicating that the earthquakes likely occurred on pre-existing faults in the axial valley. Focal depth estimates for the largest earthquakes are between 1.5-2.5 kilometers below the seafloor. Tension axes for these earthquakes indicate that the stretching direction is N19°E, which is intermediate between the spreading and rift-orthogonal directions. This result agrees well with published analogue models of oblique rifting, with and without the presence of magma. We infer that this swarm of earthquakes was caused by laterally propagating dike intrusions because it shares many characteristics with dike

  11. Data base pertinent to earthquake design basis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sharma, R.D.

    1988-01-01

    Mitigation of earthquake risk from impending strong earthquakes is possible provided the hazard can be assessed, and translated into appropriate design inputs. This requires defining the seismic risk problem, isolating the risk factors and quantifying risk in terms of physical parameters, which are suitable for application in design. Like all other geological phenomena, past earthquakes hold the key to the understanding of future ones. Quantificatio n of seismic risk at a site calls for investigating the earthquake aspects of the site region and building a data base. The scope of such investigations is il lustrated in Figure 1 and 2. A more detailed definition of the earthquake problem in engineering design is given elsewhere (Sharma, 1987). The present document discusses the earthquake data base, which is required to support a seismic risk evaluation programme in the context of the existing state of the art. (author). 8 tables, 10 figs., 54 refs

  12. On the plant operators performance during earthquake

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kitada, Y.; Yoshimura, S.; Abe, M.; Niwa, H.; Yoneda, T.; Matsunaga, M.; Suzuki, T.

    1994-01-01

    There is little data on which to judge the performance of plant operators during and after strong earthquakes. In order to obtain such data to enhance the reliability on the plant operation, a Japanese utility and a power plant manufacturer carried out a vibration test using a shaking table. The purpose of the test was to investigate operator performance, i.e., the quickness and correctness in switch handling and panel meter read-out. The movement of chairs during earthquake as also of interest, because if the chairs moved significantly or turned over during a strong earthquake, some arresting mechanism would be required for the chair. Although there were differences between the simulated earthquake motions used and actual earthquakes mainly due to the specifications of the shaking table, the earthquake motions had almost no influence on the operators of their capability (performance) for operating the simulated console and the personal computers

  13. Earthquake Hazard Mitigation Strategy in Indonesia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karnawati, D.; Anderson, R.; Pramumijoyo, S.

    2008-05-01

    Because of the active tectonic setting of the region, the risks of geological hazards inevitably increase in Indonesian Archipelagoes and other ASIAN countries. Encouraging community living in the vulnerable area to adapt with the nature of geology will be the most appropriate strategy for earthquake risk reduction. Updating the Earthquake Hazard Maps, enhancement ofthe existing landuse management , establishment of public education strategy and method, strengthening linkages among stake holders of disaster mitigation institutions as well as establishement of continues public consultation are the main strategic programs for community resilience in earthquake vulnerable areas. This paper highlights some important achievements of Earthquake Hazard Mitigation Programs in Indonesia, together with the difficulties in implementing such programs. Case examples of Yogyakarta and Bengkulu Earthquake Mitigation efforts will also be discussed as the lesson learned. The new approach for developing earthquake hazard map which is innitiating by mapping the psychological aspect of the people living in vulnerable area will be addressed as well.

  14. Contributions to the Chile’s Seismic History: the Case of the Great Earthquake of 1730

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    María X. Urbina Carrasco

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available According to the new and previously known documents it is concluded the earthquake of Chile in 1730 was composed by two independent earthquakes, each associated to a tsunami. Considering the latitudinal extension of the damage and the size of the tsunamis, it can be taken as the largest seismic event occurred in the history of Metropolitan or Central Chile. These conclusions allow to know better the seismic sequence of Central Chile, the Seismic History of the country, and contribute to the knowledge of the colonial history of the kingdom of Chile.

  15. Deviant Earthquakes: Data-driven Constraints on the Variability in Earthquake Source Properties and Seismic Hazard

    OpenAIRE

    Trugman, Daniel T

    2017-01-01

    The complexity of the earthquake rupture process makes earthquakes inherently unpredictable. Seismic hazard forecasts often presume that the rate of earthquake occurrence can be adequately modeled as a space-time homogenenous or stationary Poisson process and that the relation between the dynamical source properties of small and large earthquakes obey self-similar scaling relations. While these simplified models provide useful approximations and encapsulate the first-order statistical feature...

  16. 3. Waveform and Spectral Features of Earthquake Swarms and Foreshocks : in Special Reference to Earthquake Prediction

    OpenAIRE

    Tsujiura, Masaru

    1983-01-01

    Through the analyses of waveforms and spectra for the earthquake swarm, foreshock and ordinary seismic activities, some differences in the activity mode are found among those activities. The most striking difference is the ""similarity of waveform"". The earthquake swarm activity which occurred in a certain short time interval mainly consists of events with similar waveforms, belonging to the event group called ""similar earthquakes"" or an ""earthquake family"". On the other hand, the foresh...

  17. Local earthquake tomography of Scotland

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luckett, Richard; Baptie, Brian

    2015-03-01

    Scotland is a relatively aseismic region for the use of local earthquake tomography, but 40 yr of earthquakes recorded by a good and growing network make it possible. A careful selection is made from the earthquakes located by the British Geological Survey (BGS) over the last four decades to provide a data set maximising arrival time accuracy and ray path coverage of Scotland. A large number of 1-D velocity models with different layer geometries are considered and differentiated by employing quarry blasts as ground-truth events. Then, SIMULPS14 is used to produce a robust 3-D tomographic P-wave velocity model for Scotland. In areas of high resolution the model shows good agreement with previously published interpretations of seismic refraction and reflection experiments. However, the model shows relatively little lateral variation in seismic velocity except at shallow depths, where sedimentary basins such as the Midland Valley are apparent. At greater depths, higher velocities in the northwest parts of the model suggest that the thickness of crust increases towards the south and east. This observation is also in agreement with previous studies. Quarry blasts used as ground truth events and relocated with the preferred 3-D model are shown to be markedly more accurate than when located with the existing BGS 1-D velocity model.

  18. Pre-earthquake Magnetic Pulses

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scoville, J.; Heraud, J. A.; Freund, F. T.

    2015-12-01

    A semiconductor model of rocks is shown to describe unipolar magnetic pulses, a phenomenon that has been observed prior to earthquakes. These pulses are suspected to be generated deep in the Earth's crust, in and around the hypocentral volume, days or even weeks before earth quakes. Their extremely long wavelength allows them to pass through kilometers of rock. Interestingly, when the sources of these pulses are triangulated, the locations coincide with the epicenters of future earthquakes. We couple a drift-diffusion semiconductor model to a magnetic field in order to describe the electromagnetic effects associated with electrical currents flowing within rocks. The resulting system of equations is solved numerically and it is seen that a volume of rock may act as a diode that produces transient currents when it switches bias. These unidirectional currents are expected to produce transient unipolar magnetic pulses similar in form, amplitude, and duration to those observed before earthquakes, and this suggests that the pulses could be the result of geophysical semiconductor processes.

  19. Earthquake-protective pneumatic foundation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shustov, Valentin

    2000-04-01

    The main objective of the research in progress is to evaluate the applicability of an innovative earthquake-protective system called pneumatic foundation to building construction and industrial equipment. The system represents kind of seismic soil isolation. The research is analytical and accompanied with limited testing on a shake table. The concept of partial suppression of seismic energy flow inside a structure is known as a seismic or base isolation. Normally, this technique needs some pads to be inserted into all major load-carrying elements in a base of the building. It also requires creating additional rigidity diaphragms in the basement and a moat around the building, as well as making additional provisions against overturning and/or P-(Delta ) effect. Besides, potential benefits of base isolation techniques should not be taken for granted: they depend on many internal and external factors. The author developed a new earthquake protective technique called pneumatic foundation. Its main components are: a horizontal protective layer located under the footing at a certain depth, and a vertical one installed along the horizontal protective layer perimeter. The first experiments proved a sizable screening effect of pneumatic foundation: two identical models of a steel frame building, put simultaneously on the same vibrating support simulating an earthquake, performed in a strikingly different manner: while the regular building model shook vigorously, the model on a pneumatic foundation just slightly trembled.

  20. Lessons of L'Aquila for Operational Earthquake Forecasting

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jordan, T. H.

    2012-12-01

    The L'Aquila earthquake of 6 Apr 2009 (magnitude 6.3) killed 309 people and left tens of thousands homeless. The mainshock was preceded by a vigorous seismic sequence that prompted informal earthquake predictions and evacuations. In an attempt to calm the population, the Italian Department of Civil Protection (DPC) convened its Commission on the Forecasting and Prevention of Major Risk (MRC) in L'Aquila on 31 March 2009 and issued statements about the hazard that were widely received as an "anti-alarm"; i.e., a deterministic prediction that there would not be a major earthquake. On October 23, 2012, a court in L'Aquila convicted the vice-director of DPC and six scientists and engineers who attended the MRC meeting on charges of criminal manslaughter, and it sentenced each to six years in prison. A few weeks after the L'Aquila disaster, the Italian government convened an International Commission on Earthquake Forecasting for Civil Protection (ICEF) with the mandate to assess the status of short-term forecasting methods and to recommend how they should be used in civil protection. The ICEF, which I chaired, issued its findings and recommendations on 2 Oct 2009 and published its final report, "Operational Earthquake Forecasting: Status of Knowledge a