An ongoing earthquake sequence near Dhaka, Bangladesh, from regional recordings

Science.gov (United States)

Howe, M.; Mondal, D. R.; Akhter, S. H.; Kim, W.; Seeber, L.; Steckler, M. S.

2013-12-01

Earthquakes in and around the syntaxial region between the continent-continent collision of the Himalayan arc and oceanic subduction of the Sunda arc result primarily from the convergence of India and Eurasia-Sunda plates along two fronts. The northern front, the convergence of the Indian and Eurasian plates, has produced the Himalayas. The eastern front, the convergence of the Indian and Sunda plates, ranges from ocean-continent subduction at the Andaman Arc and Burma Arc, and transitions to continent-continent collision to the north at the Assam Syntaxis in northeast India. The India-Sunda convergence at the Burma Arc is extremely oblique. The boundary-normal convergence rate is ~17 mm/yr while the boundary-parallel rate is ~45 mm/yr including the well-known Sagaing strike-slip fault, which accommodates about half the shear component. This heterogeneous tectonic setting produces multiple earthquake sources that need to be considered when assessing seismic hazard and risk in this region. The largest earthquakes, just as in other subduction systems, are expected to be interplate events that occur on the low-angle megathrusts, such as the Mw 9.2 2004 Sumatra-Andaman earthquake and the 1762 earthquake along the Arakan margin. These earthquakes are known to produce large damage over vast areas, but since they account for large fault motions they are relatively rare. The majority of current seismicity in the study area is intraplate. Most of the seismicity associated with the Burma Arc subduction system is in the down-going slab, including the shallow-dipping part below the megathrust flooring the accretionary wedge. The strike of the wedge is ~N-S and Dhaka lies at its outer limit. One particular source relevant to seismic risk in Dhaka is illuminated by a multi-year sequence of earthquakes in Bangladesh less than 100 km southeast of Dhaka. The population in Dhaka (now at least 15 million) has been increasing dramatically due to rapid urbanization. The vulnerability

The Bergshamra earthquake sequence of December 23, 1979

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kulhanek, O.; John, N.; Meyer, K.; Eck, T. van; Wahlstroem, R.

1980-08-01

On December 23, 1979 an earthquake sequence occurred near Bergshamra-Roslagen, Sweden, about 50 km northeast of Stockholm. The main shock, which has been assigned a magnitude Msub(L)=3.2, has been followed, with a 3 minute delay, by a shock of magnitude Msub(L)=2.6 and, with additional 21-minute delay, by a third shock of magnitude Msub(L)=2.0. Whereas the main shock was recorded by almost all Finnish, Norwegian and Swedish permanent stations, the whole sequence has been observed only at UPP (Δ=68 km). A six-week field survey in the epicentral area revealed a number of small aftershocks located close to the main shock. The Bergshamra sequence took place in a zone of very low seismicity in eastern central Sweden and for Swedish earthquakes at unusual shallow depth. Since the epicentre lies less than 100 km from a nuclear power plant in Forsmark, the sequence received publicity which was not in proportion to the size of the shock. At his occasion, some rather strange explanations of the shock emerged. (Auth.)

Numerical Simulation of Stress evolution and earthquake sequence of the Tibetan Plateau

Science.gov (United States)

Dong, Peiyu; Hu, Caibo; Shi, Yaolin

2015-04-01

The India-Eurasia's collision produces N-S compression and results in large thrust fault in the southern edge of the Tibetan Plateau. Differential eastern flow of the lower crust of the plateau leads to large strike-slip faults and normal faults within the plateau. From 1904 to 2014, more than 30 earthquakes of Mw > 6.5 occurred sequentially in this distinctive tectonic environment. How did the stresses evolve during the last 110 years, how did the earthquakes interact with each other? Can this knowledge help us to forecast the future seismic hazards? In this essay, we tried to simulate the evolution of the stress field and the earthquake sequence in the Tibetan plateau within the last 110 years with a 2-D finite element model. Given an initial state of stress, the boundary condition was constrained by the present-day GPS observation, which was assumed as a constant rate during the 110 years. We calculated stress evolution year by year, and earthquake would occur if stress exceed the crustal strength. Stress changes due to each large earthquake in the sequence was calculated and contributed to the stress evolution. A key issue is the choice of initial stress state of the modeling, which is actually unknown. Usually, in the study of earthquake triggering, people assume the initial stress is zero, and only calculate the stress changes by large earthquakes - the Coulomb failure stress changes (Δ CFS). To some extent, this simplified method is a powerful tool because it can reveal which fault or which part of a fault becomes more risky or safer relatively. Nonetheless, it has not utilized all information available to us. The earthquake sequence reveals, though far from complete, some information about the stress state in the region. If the entire region is close to a self-organized critical or subcritical state, earthquake stress drop provides an estimate of lower limit of initial state. For locations no earthquakes occurred during the period, initial stress has to be

The 2007 Mentawai earthquake sequence on the Sumatra megathrust

Science.gov (United States)

Konca, A.; Avouac, J.; Sladen, A.; Meltzner, A. J.; Kositsky, A. P.; Sieh, K.; Fang, P.; Li, Z.; Galetzka, J.; Genrich, J.; Chlieh, M.; Natawidjaja, D. H.; Bock, Y.; Fielding, E. J.; Helmberger, D. V.

2008-12-01

The Sumatra Megathrust has recently produced a flurry of large interplate earthquakes starting with the giant Mw 9.15, Aceh earthquake of 2004. All of these earthquakes occurred within the area monitored by the Sumatra Geodetic Array (SuGAr), which provided exceptional records of near-field co-seismic and postseismic ground displacements. The most recent of these major earthquakes, an Mw 8.4 earthquake and an Mw 7.9 earthquake twelve hours later, occurred in the Mentawai islands area where devastating historical earthquakes had happened in 1797 and 1833. The 2007 earthquake sequence provides an exceptional opportunity to understand the variability of the earthquakes along megathrusts and their relation to interseismic coupling. The InSAR, GPS and teleseismic modeling shows that 2007 earthquakes ruptured a fraction of the strongly coupled Mentawai patch of the megathrust, which is also only a fraction of the 1833 rupture area. It also released a much smaller moment than the one released in 1833, or than the deficit of moment that has accumulated since. Both earthquakes of 2007 consist of 2 sub-events which are 50 to 100 km apart from each other. On the other hand, the northernmost slip patch of 8.4 and southern slip patch of 7.9 earthquakes abut each other, but they ruptured 12 hours apart. Sunda megathrust earthquakes of recent years include a rupture of a strongly coupled patch that closely mimics a prior rupture of that patch and which is well correlated with the interseismic coupling pattern (Nias-Simeulue section), as well as a rupture sequence of a strongly coupled patch that differs substantially in the details from its most recent predecessors (Mentawai section). We conclude that (1) seismic asperities are probably persistent features which arise form heterogeneous strain build up in the interseismic period; and (2) the same portion of a megathrust can rupture in different ways depending on whether asperities break as isolated events or cooperate to produce

The 2016 Kumamoto earthquake sequence.

Science.gov (United States)

Kato, Aitaro; Nakamura, Kouji; Hiyama, Yohei

2016-01-01

Beginning in April 2016, a series of shallow, moderate to large earthquakes with associated strong aftershocks struck the Kumamoto area of Kyushu, SW Japan. An M j 7.3 mainshock occurred on 16 April 2016, close to the epicenter of an M j 6.5 foreshock that occurred about 28 hours earlier. The intense seismicity released the accumulated elastic energy by right-lateral strike slip, mainly along two known, active faults. The mainshock rupture propagated along multiple fault segments with different geometries. The faulting style is reasonably consistent with regional deformation observed on geologic timescales and with the stress field estimated from seismic observations. One striking feature of this sequence is intense seismic activity, including a dynamically triggered earthquake in the Oita region. Following the mainshock rupture, postseismic deformation has been observed, as well as expansion of the seismicity front toward the southwest and northwest.

The 2016 Kumamoto earthquake sequence

Science.gov (United States)

KATO, Aitaro; NAKAMURA, Kouji; HIYAMA, Yohei

2016-01-01

Beginning in April 2016, a series of shallow, moderate to large earthquakes with associated strong aftershocks struck the Kumamoto area of Kyushu, SW Japan. An Mj 7.3 mainshock occurred on 16 April 2016, close to the epicenter of an Mj 6.5 foreshock that occurred about 28 hours earlier. The intense seismicity released the accumulated elastic energy by right-lateral strike slip, mainly along two known, active faults. The mainshock rupture propagated along multiple fault segments with different geometries. The faulting style is reasonably consistent with regional deformation observed on geologic timescales and with the stress field estimated from seismic observations. One striking feature of this sequence is intense seismic activity, including a dynamically triggered earthquake in the Oita region. Following the mainshock rupture, postseismic deformation has been observed, as well as expansion of the seismicity front toward the southwest and northwest. PMID:27725474

Rupture processes of the 2013-2014 Minab earthquake sequence, Iran

Science.gov (United States)

Kintner, Jonas A.; Ammon, Charles J.; Cleveland, K. Michael; Herman, Matthew

2018-06-01

We constrain epicentroid locations, magnitudes and depths of moderate-magnitude earthquakes in the 2013-2014 Minab sequence using surface-wave cross-correlations, surface-wave spectra and teleseismic body-wave modelling. We estimate precise relative locations of 54 Mw ≥ 3.8 earthquakes using 48 409 teleseismic, intermediate-period Rayleigh and Love-wave cross-correlation measurements. To reduce significant regional biases in our relative locations, we shift the relative locations to align the Mw 6.2 main-shock centroid to a location derived from an independent InSAR fault model. Our relocations suggest that the events lie along a roughly east-west trend that is consistent with the faulting geometry in the GCMT catalogue. The results support previous studies that suggest the sequence consists of left-lateral strain release, but better defines the main-shock fault length and shows that most of the Mw ≥ 5.0 aftershocks occurred on one or two similarly oriented structures. We also show that aftershock activity migrated westwards along strike, away from the main shock, suggesting that Coulomb stress transfer played a role in the fault failure. We estimate the magnitudes of the relocated events using surface-wave cross-correlation amplitudes and find good agreement with the GCMT moment magnitudes for the larger events and underestimation of small-event size by catalogue MS. In addition to clarifying details of the Minab sequence, the results demonstrate that even in tectonically complex regions, relative relocation using teleseismic surface waves greatly improves the precision of relative earthquake epicentroid locations and can facilitate detailed tectonic analyses of remote earthquake sequences.

Source characteristics of the Fairview, OK, earthquake sequence and its relationship to industrial activities

Science.gov (United States)

Yeck, W. L.; Weingarten, M.; Benz, H.; McNamara, D. E.; Herrmann, R. B.; Rubinstein, J. L.; Earle, P. S.; Bergman, E.

2016-12-01

We characterize the spatio-temporal patterns of seismicity surrounding the February 13, 2016, Mw 5.1 Fairview, Oklahoma earthquake. This earthquake sequence accounts for the largest moment release in the central and eastern US since the November 06, 2011 Mw 5.6 Prague, OK earthquake sequence. To improve the location accuracy of the sequence and measure near-source ground motions, the United States Geological Survey (USGS) deployed eight seismometers and accelerometers in the epicentral region. With the added depth control from these stations, we show that earthquakes primarily occur in the Precambrian basement, at depths of 6-10 km below sea level. The Mw 5.1 mainshock, the largest event in the cluster, locates near the base of the seismicity. Relocated aftershocks delineate a partially unmapped, 14-km-long fault segment that strikes approximately N40°E, partially bridging the gap between previously mapped basement faults to the southwest and northeast. Gas production and hydraulic fracking data from the region show no evidence that either of these activities correlates spatio-temporally with the Fairview sequence. Instead, we suggest that a series of high-rate, Arbuckle injection wells (> 300,000 bbls/month) 8-25 km northeast of this sequence pressurized the reservoir in the far field. Regional injection into the Arbuckle formation increased 7-fold in the 24 months before the initiation of the sequence with some wells operating at rates greater than 1 million barrels per month. Seismicity in the proximity of the high-rate wells is diffuse whilst the energetic Fairview sequence occurs more than 15 km from this region. Our observations point to the critical role pre-existing geologic structures play in the occurrence of large induced earthquakes. This study demonstrates the need for a better understanding of the role of far-field pressurization. High-quality data sets such as this facilitate the USGS mission to improve earthquake hazard identification, especially

The Mw=8.8 Maule earthquake aftershock sequence, event catalog and locations

Science.gov (United States)

Meltzer, A.; Benz, H.; Brown, L.; Russo, R. M.; Beck, S. L.; Roecker, S. W.

2011-12-01

The aftershock sequence of the Mw=8.8 Maule earthquake off the coast of Chile in February 2010 is one of the most well-recorded aftershock sequences from a great megathrust earthquake. Immediately following the Maule earthquake, teams of geophysicists from Chile, France, Germany, Great Britain and the United States coordinated resources to capture aftershocks and other seismic signals associated with this significant earthquake. In total, 91 broadband, 48 short period, and 25 accelerometers stations were deployed above the rupture zone of the main shock from 33-38.5°S and from the coast to the Andean range front. In order to integrate these data into a unified catalog, the USGS National Earthquake Information Center develop procedures to use their real-time seismic monitoring system (Bulletin Hydra) to detect, associate, location and compute earthquake source parameters from these stations. As a first step in the process, the USGS has built a seismic catalog of all M3.5 or larger earthquakes for the time period of the main aftershock deployment from March 2010-October 2010. The catalog includes earthquake locations, magnitudes (Ml, Mb, Mb_BB, Ms, Ms_BB, Ms_VX, Mc), associated phase readings and regional moment tensor solutions for most of the M4 or larger events. Also included in the catalog are teleseismic phases and amplitude measures and body-wave MT and CMT solutions for the larger events, typically M5.5 and larger. Tuning of automated detection and association parameters should allow a complete catalog of events to approximately M2.5 or larger for that dataset of more than 164 stations. We characterize the aftershock sequence in terms of magnitude, frequency, and location over time. Using the catalog locations and travel times as a starting point we use double difference techniques to investigate relative locations and earthquake clustering. In addition, phase data from candidate ground truth events and modeling of surface waves can be used to calibrate the

Characterizing Aftershock Sequences of the Recent Strong Earthquakes in Central Italy

Science.gov (United States)

Kossobokov, Vladimir G.; Nekrasova, Anastasia K.

2017-10-01

The recent strong earthquakes in Central Italy allow for a comparative analysis of their aftershocks from the viewpoint of the Unified Scaling Law for Earthquakes, USLE, which generalizes the Gutenberg-Richter relationship making use of naturally fractal distribution of earthquake sources of different size in a seismic region. In particular, we consider aftershocks as a sequence of avalanches in self-organized system of blocks-and-faults of the Earth lithosphere, each aftershock series characterized with the distribution of the USLE control parameter, η. We found the existence, in a long-term, of different, intermittent levels of rather steady seismic activity characterized with a near constant value of η, which switch, in mid-term, at times of transition associated with catastrophic events. On such a transition, seismic activity may follow different scenarios with inter-event time scaling of different kind, including constant, logarithmic, power law, exponential rise/decay or a mixture of those as observed in the case of the ongoing one associated with the three strong earthquakes in 2016. Evidently, our results do not support the presence of universality of seismic energy release, while providing constraints on modelling seismic sequences for earthquake physicists and supplying decision makers with information for improving local seismic hazard assessments.

Revisiting the Canterbury earthquake sequence after the 14 February 2016 Mw 5.7 event

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Herman, Matthew W.; Furlong, Kevin P.

2016-01-01

On 14 February 2016, an Mw 5.7 (GNS Science moment magnitude) earthquake ruptured offshore east of Christchurch, New Zealand. This earthquake occurred in an area that had previously experienced significant seismicity from 2010 to 2012 during the Canterbury earthquake sequence, starting with the 2010

Abundant aftershock sequence of the 2015 Mw7.5 Hindu Kush intermediate-depth earthquake

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Chenyu; Peng, Zhigang; Yao, Dongdong; Guo, Hao; Zhan, Zhongwen; Zhang, Haijiang

2018-05-01

The 2015 Mw7.5 Hindu Kush earthquake occurred at a depth of 213 km beneath the Hindu Kush region of Afghanistan. While many early aftershocks were missing from the global earthquake catalogues, this sequence was recorded continuously by eight broad-band stations within 500 km. Here we use a waveform matching technique to systematically detect earthquakes around the main shock. More than 3000 events are detected within 35 d after the main shock, as compared with 42 listed in the Advanced National Seismic System catalogue (or 196 in the International Seismological Centre catalogue). The aftershock sequence generally follows the Omori's law with a decay constant p = 0.92. We also apply the recently developed double-pair double-difference technique to relocate all detected aftershocks. Most of them are located to the west of the hypocentre of the main shock, consistent with the westward propagation of the main-shock rupture. The aftershocks outline a nearly vertical southward dipping plane, which matches well with one of the nodal planes of the main shock. We conclude that the aftershock sequence of this intermediate-depth earthquake shares many similarities with those for shallow earthquakes and infer that there are some common mechanisms responsible for shallow and intermediate-depth earthquakes.

Characterization of Aftershock Sequences from Large Strike-Slip Earthquakes Along Geometrically Complex Faults

Science.gov (United States)

Sexton, E.; Thomas, A.; Delbridge, B. G.

2017-12-01

Large earthquakes often exhibit complex slip distributions and occur along non-planar fault geometries, resulting in variable stress changes throughout the region of the fault hosting aftershocks. To better discern the role of geometric discontinuities on aftershock sequences, we compare areas of enhanced and reduced Coulomb failure stress and mean stress for systematic differences in the time dependence and productivity of these aftershock sequences. In strike-slip faults, releasing structures, including stepovers and bends, experience an increase in both Coulomb failure stress and mean stress during an earthquake, promoting fluid diffusion into the region and further failure. Conversely, Coulomb failure stress and mean stress decrease in restraining bends and stepovers in strike-slip faults, and fluids diffuse away from these areas, discouraging failure. We examine spatial differences in seismicity patterns along structurally complex strike-slip faults which have hosted large earthquakes, such as the 1992 Mw 7.3 Landers, the 2010 Mw 7.2 El-Mayor Cucapah, the 2014 Mw 6.0 South Napa, and the 2016 Mw 7.0 Kumamoto events. We characterize the behavior of these aftershock sequences with the Epidemic Type Aftershock-Sequence Model (ETAS). In this statistical model, the total occurrence rate of aftershocks induced by an earthquake is λ(t) = λ_0 + \\sum_{i:t_i

Breaking barriers and halting rupture: the 2016 Amatrice-Visso-Castelluccio earthquake sequence, central Italy

Science.gov (United States)

Gregory, L. C.; Walters, R. J.; Wedmore, L. N. J.; Craig, T. J.; McCaffrey, K. J. W.; Wilkinson, M. W.; Livio, F.; Michetti, A.; Goodall, H.; Li, Z.; Chen, J.; De Martini, P. M.

2017-12-01

In 2016 the Central Italian Apennines was struck by a sequence of normal faulting earthquakes that ruptured in three separate events on the 24th August (Mw 6.2), the 26th Oct (Mw 6.1), and the 30th Oct (Mw 6.6). We reveal the complex nature of the individual events and the time-evolution of the sequence using multiple datasets. We will present an overview of the results from field geology, satellite geodesy, GNSS (including low-cost short baseline installations), and terrestrial laser scanning (TLS). Sequences of earthquakes of mid to high magnitude 6 are common in historical and seismological records in Italy and other similar tectonic settings globally. Multi-fault rupture during these sequences can occur in seconds, as in the M 6.9 1980 Irpinia earthquake, or can span days, months, or years (e.g. the 1703 Norcia-L'Aquila sequence). It is critical to determine why the causative faults in the 2016 sequence did not rupture simultaneously, and how this relates to fault segmentation and structural barriers. This is the first sequence of this kind to be observed using modern geodetic techniques, and only with all of the datasets combined can we begin to understand how and why the sequence evolved in time and space. We show that earthquake rupture both broke through structural barriers that were thought to exist, but was also inhibited by a previously unknown structure. We will also discuss the logistical challenges in generating datasets on the time-evolving sequence, and show how rapid response and international collaboration within the Open EMERGEO Working Group was critical for gaining a complete picture of the ongoing activity.

Recent Achievements of the Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability

Science.gov (United States)

Jackson, D. D.; Liukis, M.; Werner, M. J.; Schorlemmer, D.; Yu, J.; Maechling, P. J.; Zechar, J. D.; Jordan, T. H.

2015-12-01

Maria Liukis, SCEC, USC; Maximilian Werner, University of Bristol; Danijel Schorlemmer, GFZ Potsdam; John Yu, SCEC, USC; Philip Maechling, SCEC, USC; Jeremy Zechar, Swiss Seismological Service, ETH; Thomas H. Jordan, SCEC, USC, and the CSEP Working Group The Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP) supports a global program to conduct prospective earthquake forecasting experiments. CSEP testing centers are now operational in California, New Zealand, Japan, China, and Europe with 435 models under evaluation. The California testing center, operated by SCEC, has been operational since Sept 1, 2007, and currently hosts 30-minute, 1-day, 3-month, 1-year and 5-year forecasts, both alarm-based and probabilistic, for California, the Western Pacific, and worldwide. We have reduced testing latency, implemented prototype evaluation of M8 forecasts, and are currently developing formats and procedures to evaluate externally-hosted forecasts and predictions. These efforts are related to CSEP support of the USGS program in operational earthquake forecasting and a DHS project to register and test external forecast procedures from experts outside seismology. A retrospective experiment for the 2010-2012 Canterbury earthquake sequence has been completed, and the results indicate that some physics-based and hybrid models outperform purely statistical (e.g., ETAS) models. The experiment also demonstrates the power of the CSEP cyberinfrastructure for retrospective testing. Our current development includes evaluation strategies that increase computational efficiency for high-resolution global experiments, such as the evaluation of the Global Earthquake Activity Rate (GEAR) model. We describe the open-source CSEP software that is available to researchers as they develop their forecast models (http://northridge.usc.edu/trac/csep/wiki/MiniCSEP). We also discuss applications of CSEP infrastructure to geodetic transient detection and how CSEP procedures are being

Response and recovery lessons from the 2010-2011 earthquake sequence in Canterbury, New Zealand

Science.gov (United States)

Pierepiekarz, Mark; Johnston, David; Berryman, Kelvin; Hare, John; Gomberg, Joan S.; Williams, Robert A.; Weaver, Craig S.

2014-01-01

The impacts and opportunities that result when low-probability moderate earthquakes strike an urban area similar to many throughout the US were vividly conveyed in a one-day workshop in which social and Earth scientists, public officials, engineers, and an emergency manager shared their experiences of the earthquake sequence that struck the city of Christchurch and surrounding Canterbury region of New Zealand in 2010-2011. Without question, the earthquake sequence has had unprecedented impacts in all spheres on New Zealand society, locally to nationally--10% of the country's population was directly impacted and losses total 8-10% of their GDP. The following paragraphs present a few lessons from Christchurch.

Precursory slow-slip loaded the 2009 L'Aquila earthquake sequence

Science.gov (United States)

Borghi, A.; Aoudia, A.; Javed, F.; Barzaghi, R.

2016-05-01

Slow-slip events (SSEs) are common at subduction zone faults where large mega earthquakes occur. We report here that one of the best-recorded moderate size continental earthquake, the 2009 April 6 moment magnitude (Mw) 6.3 L'Aquila (Italy) earthquake, was preceded by a 5.9 Mw SSE that originated from the decollement beneath the reactivated normal faulting system. The SSE is identified from a rigorous analysis of continuous GPS stations and occurred on the 12 February and lasted for almost two weeks. It coincided with a burst in the foreshock activity with small repeating earthquakes migrating towards the main-shock hypocentre as well as with a change in the elastic properties of rocks in the fault region. The SSE has caused substantial stress loading at seismogenic depths where the magnitude 4.0 foreshock and Mw 6.3 main shock nucleated. This stress loading is also spatially correlated with the lateral extent of the aftershock sequence.

Dual megathrust slip behaviors of the 2014 Iquique earthquake sequence

Science.gov (United States)

Meng, Lingsen; Huang, Hui; Bürgmann, Roland; Ampuero, Jean Paul; Strader, Anne

2015-02-01

The transition between seismic rupture and aseismic creep is of central interest to better understand the mechanics of subduction processes. A Mw 8.2 earthquake occurred on April 1st, 2014 in the Iquique seismic gap of northern Chile. This event was preceded by a long foreshock sequence including a 2-week-long migration of seismicity initiated by a Mw 6.7 earthquake. Repeating earthquakes were found among the foreshock sequence that migrated towards the mainshock hypocenter, suggesting a large-scale slow-slip event on the megathrust preceding the mainshock. The variations of the recurrence times of the repeating earthquakes highlight the diverse seismic and aseismic slip behaviors on different megathrust segments. The repeaters that were active only before the mainshock recurred more often and were distributed in areas of substantial coseismic slip, while repeaters that occurred both before and after the mainshock were in the area complementary to the mainshock rupture. The spatiotemporal distribution of the repeating earthquakes illustrates the essential role of propagating aseismic slip leading up to the mainshock and illuminates the distribution of postseismic afterslip. Various finite fault models indicate that the largest coseismic slip generally occurred down-dip from the foreshock activity and the mainshock hypocenter. Source imaging by teleseismic back-projection indicates an initial down-dip propagation stage followed by a rupture-expansion stage. In the first stage, the finite fault models show an emergent onset of moment rate at low frequency ( 0.5 Hz). This indicates frequency-dependent manifestations of seismic radiation in the low-stress foreshock region. In the second stage, the rupture expands in rich bursts along the rim of a semi-elliptical region with episodes of re-ruptures, suggesting delayed failure of asperities. The high-frequency rupture remains within an area of local high trench-parallel gravity anomaly (TPGA), suggesting the presence of

Strain Anomalies during an Earthquake Sequence in the South Iceland Seismic Zone

Science.gov (United States)

Arnadottir, T.; Haines, A. J.; Geirsson, H.; Hreinsdottir, S.

2017-12-01

The South Iceland Seismic Zone (SISZ) accommodates E-W translation due to oblique spreading between the North American/Hreppar microplate and Eurasian plate, in South Iceland. Strain is released in the SISZ during earthquake sequences that last days to years, at average intervals of 80-100 years. The SISZ is currently in the midst of an earthquake sequence that started with two M6.5 earthquakes in June 2000, and continued with two M6 earthquakes in May 2008. Estimates of geometric strain accumulation, and seismic strain release in these events indicate that they released at most only half of the strain accumulated since the last earthquake cycle in 1896-1912. Annual GPS campaigns and continuous measurements during 2001-2015 were used to calculate station velocities and strain rates from a new method using the vertical derivatives of horizontal stress (VDoHS). This new method allows higher resolution of strain rates than other (older) approaches, as the strain rates are estimated by integrating VDoHS rates obtained by inversion rather than differentiating interpolated GPS velocities. Estimating the strain rates for eight 1-2 year intervals indicates temporal and spatial variation of strain rates in the SISZ. In addition to earthquake faulting, the strain rates in the SISZ are influenced by anthropogenic signals due to geothermal exploitation, and magma movements in neighboring volcanoes - Hekla and Eyjafjallajökull. Subtle signals of post-seismic strain rate changes are seen following the June 2000 M6.5 main shocks, but interestingly, much larger strain rate variations are observed after the two May 2008 M6 main shocks. A prominent strain anomaly is evident in the epicentral area prior to the May 2008 earthquake sequence. The strain signal persists over at least 4 years in the epicentral area, leading up to the M6 main shocks. The strain is primarily extension in ESE-WNW direction (sub-parallel to the direction of plate spreading), but overall shear across the N

The 2016 Mihoub (north-central Algeria) earthquake sequence: Seismological and tectonic aspects

Science.gov (United States)

Khelif, M. F.; Yelles-Chaouche, A.; Benaissa, Z.; Semmane, F.; Beldjoudi, H.; Haned, A.; Issaadi, A.; Chami, A.; Chimouni, R.; Harbi, A.; Maouche, S.; Dabbouz, G.; Aidi, C.; Kherroubi, A.

2018-06-01

On 28 May 2016 at 23:54 (UTC), an Mw5.4 earthquake occurred in Mihoub village, Algeria, 60 km southeast of Algiers. This earthquake was the largest event in a sequence recorded from 10 April to 15 July 2016. In addition to the permanent national network, a temporary network was installed in the epicentral region after this shock. Recorded event locations allow us to give a general overview of the sequence and reveal the existence of two main fault segments. The first segment, on which the first event in the sequence was located, is near-vertical and trends E-W. The second fault plane, on which the largest event of the sequence was located, dips to the southeast and strikes NE-SW. A total of 46 well-constrained focal mechanisms were calculated. The events located on the E-W-striking fault segment show mainly right-lateral strike-slip (strike N70°E, dip 77° to the SSE, rake 150°). The events located on the NE-SW-striking segment show mainly reverse faulting (strike N60°E, dip 70° to the SE, rake 130°). We calculated the static stress change caused by the first event (Md4.9) of the sequence; the result shows that the fault plane of the largest event in the sequence (Mw5.4) and most of the aftershocks occurred within an area of increased Coulomb stress. Moreover, using the focal mechanisms calculated in this work, we estimated the orientations of the main axes of the local stress tensor ellipsoid. The results confirm previous findings that the general stress field in this area shows orientations aligned NNW-SSE to NW-SE. The 2016 Mihoub earthquake sequence study thus improves our understanding of seismic hazard in north-central Algeria.

The 2006-2007 Kuril Islands great earthquake sequence

Science.gov (United States)

Lay, T.; Kanamori, H.; Ammon, C.J.; Hutko, Alexander R.; Furlong, K.; Rivera, L.

2009-01-01

The southwestern half of a ???500 km long seismic gap in the central Kuril Island arc subduction zone experienced two great earthquakes with extensive preshock and aftershock sequences in late 2006 to early 2007. The nature of seismic coupling in the gap had been uncertain due to the limited historical record of prior large events and the presence of distinctive upper plate, trench and outer rise structures relative to adjacent regions along the arc that have experienced repeated great interplate earthquakes in the last few centuries. The intraplate region seaward of the seismic gap had several shallow compressional events during the preceding decades (notably an MS 7.2 event on 16 March 1963), leading to speculation that the interplate fault was seismically coupled. This issue was partly resolved by failure of the shallow portion of the interplate megathrust in an MW = 8.3 thrust event on 15 November 2006. This event ruptured ???250 km along the seismic gap, just northeast of the great 1963 Kuril Island (Mw = 8.5) earthquake rupture zone. Within minutes of the thrust event, intense earthquake activity commenced beneath the outer wall of the trench seaward of the interplate rupture, with the larger events having normal-faulting mechanisms. An unusual double band of interplate and intraplate aftershocks developed. On 13 January 2007, an MW = 8.1 extensional earthquake ruptured within the Pacific plate beneath the seaward edge of the Kuril trench. This event is the third largest normal-faulting earthquake seaward of a subduction zone on record, and its rupture zone extended to at least 33 km depth and paralleled most of the length of the 2006 rupture. The 13 January 2007 event produced stronger shaking in Japan than the larger thrust event, as a consequence of higher short-period energy radiation from the source. The great event aftershock sequences were dominated by the expected faulting geometries; thrust faulting for the 2006 rupture zone, and normal faulting for

Seismotectonics of the 2014 Chiang Rai, Thailand, earthquake sequence

Science.gov (United States)

Pananont, P.; Herman, M. W.; Pornsopin, P.; Furlong, K. P.; Habangkaem, S.; Waldhauser, F.; Wongwai, W.; Limpisawad, S.; Warnitchai, P.; Kosuwan, S.; Wechbunthung, B.

2017-08-01

On 5 May 2014, a Mw 6.2 strike-slip earthquake occurred in the Mae Lao region of Chiang Rai province in Thailand. This earthquake took place in a region of known faults and caused substantial damage and injuries, although the region had been previously identified as having a relatively low earthquake hazard. Detailed field reconnaissance and deployment of a dense, temporary, network of broadband seismometers allowed details of the damage and its relationship to seismicity to be analyzed. The aftershock sequence associated with this main shock occurs on two well-defined trends, reflecting the two potential fault planes in earthquake mechanisms for the main shock and the majority of the aftershocks. The damage area was relatively large for an event of this magnitude, but building damage was largely limited to the primary rupture region, while liquefaction and other ground failure are spatially associated with the rupture area and along regional rivers. Stress modeling, combined with the time series and pattern of aftershock activity, leads us to propose that slip near the northern termination of the main shock rupture continued slightly onto a conjugate fault, helping to trigger the distinct pattern of two discrete, conjugate trends of aftershock activity that mirror the kinematics of the main shock fault mechanism.

Identification and characterization of earthquake clusters: a comparative analysis for selected sequences in Italy

Science.gov (United States)

Peresan, Antonella; Gentili, Stefania

2017-04-01

Identification and statistical characterization of seismic clusters may provide useful insights about the features of seismic energy release and their relation to physical properties of the crust within a given region. Moreover, a number of studies based on spatio-temporal analysis of main-shocks occurrence require preliminary declustering of the earthquake catalogs. Since various methods, relying on different physical/statistical assumptions, may lead to diverse classifications of earthquakes into main events and related events, we aim to investigate the classification differences among different declustering techniques. Accordingly, a formal selection and comparative analysis of earthquake clusters is carried out for the most relevant earthquakes in North-Eastern Italy, as reported in the local OGS-CRS bulletins, compiled at the National Institute of Oceanography and Experimental Geophysics since 1977. The comparison is then extended to selected earthquake sequences associated with a different seismotectonic setting, namely to events that occurred in the region struck by the recent Central Italy destructive earthquakes, making use of INGV data. Various techniques, ranging from classical space-time windows methods to ad hoc manual identification of aftershocks, are applied for detection of earthquake clusters. In particular, a statistical method based on nearest-neighbor distances of events in space-time-energy domain, is considered. Results from clusters identification by the nearest-neighbor method turn out quite robust with respect to the time span of the input catalogue, as well as to minimum magnitude cutoff. The identified clusters for the largest events reported in North-Eastern Italy since 1977 are well consistent with those reported in earlier studies, which were aimed at detailed manual aftershocks identification. The study shows that the data-driven approach, based on the nearest-neighbor distances, can be satisfactorily applied to decompose the seismic

Earthquake Triggering in the September 2017 Mexican Earthquake Sequence

Science.gov (United States)

Fielding, E. J.; Gombert, B.; Duputel, Z.; Huang, M. H.; Liang, C.; Bekaert, D. P.; Moore, A. W.; Liu, Z.; Ampuero, J. P.

2017-12-01

Southern Mexico was struck by four earthquakes with Mw > 6 and numerous smaller earthquakes in September 2017, starting with the 8 September Mw 8.2 Tehuantepec earthquake beneath the Gulf of Tehuantepec offshore Chiapas and Oaxaca. We study whether this M8.2 earthquake triggered the three subsequent large M>6 quakes in southern Mexico to improve understanding of earthquake interactions and time-dependent risk. All four large earthquakes were extensional despite the the subduction of the Cocos plate. The traditional definition of aftershocks: likely an aftershock if it occurs within two rupture lengths of the main shock soon afterwards. Two Mw 6.1 earthquakes, one half an hour after the M8.2 beneath the Tehuantepec gulf and one on 23 September near Ixtepec in Oaxaca, both fit as traditional aftershocks, within 200 km of the main rupture. The 19 September Mw 7.1 Puebla earthquake was 600 km away from the M8.2 shock, outside the standard aftershock zone. Geodetic measurements from interferometric analysis of synthetic aperture radar (InSAR) and time-series analysis of GPS station data constrain finite fault total slip models for the M8.2, M7.1, and M6.1 Ixtepec earthquakes. The early M6.1 aftershock was too close in time and space to the M8.2 to measure with InSAR or GPS. We analyzed InSAR data from Copernicus Sentinel-1A and -1B satellites and JAXA ALOS-2 satellite. Our preliminary geodetic slip model for the M8.2 quake shows significant slip extended > 150 km NW from the hypocenter, longer than slip in the v1 finite-fault model (FFM) from teleseismic waveforms posted by G. Hayes at USGS NEIC. Our slip model for the M7.1 earthquake is similar to the v2 NEIC FFM. Interferograms for the M6.1 Ixtepec quake confirm the shallow depth in the upper-plate crust and show centroid is about 30 km SW of the NEIC epicenter, a significant NEIC location bias, but consistent with cluster relocations (E. Bergman, pers. comm.) and with Mexican SSN location. Coulomb static stress

Echo-sounding method aids earthquake hazard studies

Science.gov (United States)

,

1995-01-01

Dramatic examples of catastrophic damage from an earthquake occurred in 1989, when the M 7.1 Lorna Prieta rocked the San Francisco Bay area, and in 1994, when the M 6.6 Northridge earthquake jolted southern California. The surprising amount and distribution of damage to private property and infrastructure emphasizes the importance of seismic-hazard research in urbanized areas, where the potential for damage and loss of life is greatest. During April 1995, a group of scientists from the U.S. Geological Survey and the University of Tennessee, using an echo-sounding method described below, is collecting data in San Antonio Park, California, to examine the Monte Vista fault which runs through this park. The Monte Vista fault in this vicinity shows evidence of movement within the last 10,000 years or so. The data will give them a "picture" of the subsurface rock deformation near this fault. The data will also be used to help locate a trench that will be dug across the fault by scientists from William Lettis & Associates.

The Accidental Spokesperson - Science Communication during the 2010-2011 Christchurch, NZ Earthquake Sequence

Science.gov (United States)

Furlong, K. P.

2015-12-01

Beginning September 4, 2010, with a Mw 7.1 earthquake, a multi-year earthquake sequence changed life in Canterbury NZ. Information communicated by a core group of university-based earthquake scientists provided accessible information to the general public, the press, and policy makers. Although at the start of this prolonged sequence, no one anticipated its longevity nor its impact, this initial (and largest) event did catalyze a demand from the public and policy makers for information and led to some important lessons in how to communicate science to a broad audience as an event unfolds and when it is personally important to the general public. Earthquakes are neither new nor rare to New Zealand, but the Christchurch area was seen as likely suffering only from the far-field effects of a major earthquake on the Alpine Fault or Marlborough fault system. Policy makers had planned and expected that another city such as Wellington would be where they would need to respond. As a visiting faculty at the University of Canterbury, with expertise in earthquake science, I was entrained and engaged in the response - both the scientific and communication aspects. It soon became clear that formal press releases and statements from government ministries and agencies did little to address the questions and uncertainties that the public, the press, and even the policy makers had. Rather, a series of public lectures, broad ranging discussions with the media (both print and radio/television), and OpEd pieces provided by this small group of earthquake focused faculty at the University of Canterbury provided the background information, best estimates of what could occur in the future, and why Earth was acting as it was. This filled a critical gap in science information going to the public, and helped build a level of trust in the public that became critically needed after the situation escalated with subsequent damaging events through early-mid 2011, and onward.

Automatic analysis of the 2015 Gorkha earthquake aftershock sequence.

Science.gov (United States)

Baillard, C.; Lyon-Caen, H.; Bollinger, L.; Rietbrock, A.; Letort, J.; Adhikari, L. B.

2016-12-01

The Mw 7.8 Gorkha earthquake, that partially ruptured the Main Himalayan Thrust North of Kathmandu on the 25th April 2015, was the largest and most catastrophic earthquake striking Nepal since the great M8.4 1934 earthquake. This mainshock was followed by multiple aftershocks, among them, two notable events that occurred on the 12th May with magnitudes of 7.3 Mw and 6.3 Mw. Due to these recent events it became essential for the authorities and for the scientific community to better evaluate the seismic risk in the region through a detailed analysis of the earthquake catalog, amongst others, the spatio-temporal distribution of the Gorkha aftershock sequence. Here we complement this first study by doing a microseismic study using seismic data coming from the eastern part of the Nepalese Seismological Center network associated to one broadband station in Everest. Our primary goal is to deliver an accurate catalog of the aftershock sequence. Due to the exceptional number of events detected we performed an automatic picking/locating procedure which can be splitted in 4 steps: 1) Coarse picking of the onsets using a classical STA/LTA picker, 2) phase association of picked onsets to detect and declare seismic events, 3) Kurtosis pick refinement around theoretical arrival times to increase picking and location accuracy and, 4) local magnitude calculation based amplitude of waveforms. This procedure is time efficient ( 1 sec/event), reduces considerably the location uncertainties ( 2 to 5 km errors) and increases the number of events detected compared to manual processing. Indeed, the automatic detection rate is 10 times higher than the manual detection rate. By comparing to the USGS catalog we were able to give a new attenuation law to compute local magnitudes in the region. A detailed analysis of the seismicity shows a clear migration toward the east of the region and a sudden decrease of seismicity 100 km east of Kathmandu which may reveal the presence of a tectonic

Multifractal analysis of 2001 Mw 7 . 7 Bhuj earthquake sequence in Gujarat, Western India

Science.gov (United States)

Aggarwal, Sandeep Kumar; Pastén, Denisse; Khan, Prosanta Kumar

2017-12-01

The 2001 Mw 7 . 7 Bhuj mainshock seismic sequence in the Kachchh area, occurring during 2001 to 2012, has been analyzed using mono-fractal and multi-fractal dimension spectrum analysis technique. This region was characterized by frequent moderate shocks of Mw ≥ 5 . 0 for more than a decade since the occurrence of 2001 Bhuj earthquake. The present study is therefore important for precursory analysis using this sequence. The selected long-sequence has been investigated first time for completeness magnitude Mc 3.0 using the maximum curvature method. Multi-fractal Dq spectrum (Dq ∼ q) analysis was carried out using effective window-length of 200 earthquakes with a moving window of 20 events overlapped by 180 events. The robustness of the analysis has been tested by considering the magnitude completeness correction term of 0.2 to Mc 3.0 as Mc 3.2 and we have tested the error in the calculus of Dq for each magnitude threshold. On the other hand, the stability of the analysis has been investigated down to the minimum magnitude of Mw ≥ 2 . 6 in the sequence. The analysis shows the multi-fractal dimension spectrum Dq decreases with increasing of clustering of events with time before a moderate magnitude earthquake in the sequence, which alternatively accounts for non-randomness in the spatial distribution of epicenters and its self-organized criticality. Similar behavior is ubiquitous elsewhere around the globe, and warns for proximity of a damaging seismic event in an area. OS: Please confirm math roman or italics in abs.

Conceptualizing ¬the Abstractions of Earthquakes Through an Instructional Sequence Using SeisMac and the Rapid Earthquake Viewer

Science.gov (United States)

Taber, J.; Hubenthal, M.; Wysession, M.

2007-12-01

Newsworthy earthquakes provide an engaging hook for students in Earth science classes, particularly when discussing their effects on people and the landscape. However, engaging students in an analysis of earthquakes that extends beyond death and damage, is frequently hampered by the abstraction of recorded ground motion data in the form of raw seismograms and the inability of most students to personally relate to ground accelerations. To overcome these challenges, an educational sequence has been developed using two software tools: SeisMac by Daniel Griscom, and the Rapid Earthquake Viewer (REV) developed by the University of South Carolina in collaboration with IRIS and DLESE. This sequence presents a unique opportunity for Earth Science teachers to "create" foundational experiences for students as they construction a framework of understanding of abstract concepts. The first activity is designed to introduce the concept of a three-component seismogram and to directly address the very abstract nature of seismograms through a kinesthetic experience. Students first learn to take the pulse of their classroom through a guided exploration of SeisMac, which displays the output of the laptop's built-in Sudden Motion Sensor (a 3-component accelerometer). This exploration allows students to view a 3-component seismogram as they move or tap the laptop and encourages them to propose and carry out experiments to explain the meaning of the 3-component seismogram. Once completed students are then asked to apply this new knowledge to a real 3-component seismogram printed from REV. Next the activity guides students through the process of identifying P and S waves and using SeisMac to connect the physical motion of the laptop to the "wiggles" they see on the SeisMac display and then comparing those to the "wiggles" they see on their seismogram. At this point students are more fully prepared to engage in an S-P location exercise such as those included in many state standards

Spatial and Temporal Stress Drop Variations of the 2011 Tohoku Earthquake Sequence

Science.gov (United States)

Miyake, H.

2013-12-01

The 2011 Tohoku earthquake sequence consists of foreshocks, mainshock, aftershocks, and repeating earthquakes. To quantify spatial and temporal stress drop variations is important for understanding M9-class megathrust earthquakes. Variability and spatial and temporal pattern of stress drop is a basic information for rupture dynamics as well as useful to source modeling. As pointed in the ground motion prediction equations by Campbell and Bozorgnia [2008, Earthquake Spectra], mainshock-aftershock pairs often provide significant decrease of stress drop. We here focus strong motion records before and after the Tohoku earthquake, and analyze source spectral ratios considering azimuth- and distance dependency [Miyake et al., 2001, GRL]. Due to the limitation of station locations on land, spatial and temporal stress drop variations are estimated by adjusting shifts from the omega-squared source spectral model. The adjustment is based on the stochastic Green's function simulations of source spectra considering azimuth- and distance dependency. We assumed the same Green's functions for event pairs for each station, both the propagation path and site amplification effects are cancelled out. Precise studies of spatial and temporal stress drop variations have been performed [e.g., Allmann and Shearer, 2007, JGR], this study targets the relations between stress drop vs. progression of slow slip prior to the Tohoku earthquake by Kato et al. [2012, Science] and plate structures. Acknowledgement: This study is partly supported by ERI Joint Research (2013-B-05). We used the JMA unified earthquake catalogue and K-NET, KiK-net, and F-net data provided by NIED.

Foreshock sequences and short-term earthquake predictability on East Pacific Rise transform faults.

Science.gov (United States)

McGuire, Jeffrey J; Boettcher, Margaret S; Jordan, Thomas H

2005-03-24

East Pacific Rise transform faults are characterized by high slip rates (more than ten centimetres a year), predominantly aseismic slip and maximum earthquake magnitudes of about 6.5. Using recordings from a hydroacoustic array deployed by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, we show here that East Pacific Rise transform faults also have a low number of aftershocks and high foreshock rates compared to continental strike-slip faults. The high ratio of foreshocks to aftershocks implies that such transform-fault seismicity cannot be explained by seismic triggering models in which there is no fundamental distinction between foreshocks, mainshocks and aftershocks. The foreshock sequences on East Pacific Rise transform faults can be used to predict (retrospectively) earthquakes of magnitude 5.4 or greater, in narrow spatial and temporal windows and with a high probability gain. The predictability of such transform earthquakes is consistent with a model in which slow slip transients trigger earthquakes, enrich their low-frequency radiation and accommodate much of the aseismic plate motion.

Identifying Active Faults by Improving Earthquake Locations with InSAR Data and Bayesian Estimation: The 2004 Tabuk (Saudi Arabia) Earthquake Sequence

KAUST Repository

Xu, Wenbin

2015-02-03

A sequence of shallow earthquakes of magnitudes ≤5.1 took place in 2004 on the eastern flank of the Red Sea rift, near the city of Tabuk in northwestern Saudi Arabia. The earthquakes could not be well located due to the sparse distribution of seismic stations in the region, making it difficult to associate the activity with one of the many mapped faults in the area and thus to improve the assessment of seismic hazard in the region. We used Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) data from the European Space Agency’s Envisat and ERS‐2 satellites to improve the location and source parameters of the largest event of the sequence (Mw 5.1), which occurred on 22 June 2004. The mainshock caused a small but distinct ∼2.7  cm displacement signal in the InSAR data, which reveals where the earthquake took place and shows that seismic reports mislocated it by 3–16 km. With Bayesian estimation, we modeled the InSAR data using a finite‐fault model in a homogeneous elastic half‐space and found the mainshock activated a normal fault, roughly 70 km southeast of the city of Tabuk. The southwest‐dipping fault has a strike that is roughly parallel to the Red Sea rift, and we estimate the centroid depth of the earthquake to be ∼3.2  km. Projection of the fault model uncertainties to the surface indicates that one of the west‐dipping normal faults located in the area and oriented parallel to the Red Sea is a likely source for the mainshock. The results demonstrate how InSAR can be used to improve locations of moderate‐size earthquakes and thus to identify currently active faults.

Identifying Active Faults by Improving Earthquake Locations with InSAR Data and Bayesian Estimation: The 2004 Tabuk (Saudi Arabia) Earthquake Sequence

KAUST Repository

Xu, Wenbin; Dutta, Rishabh; Jonsson, Sigurjon

2015-01-01

A sequence of shallow earthquakes of magnitudes ≤5.1 took place in 2004 on the eastern flank of the Red Sea rift, near the city of Tabuk in northwestern Saudi Arabia. The earthquakes could not be well located due to the sparse distribution of seismic stations in the region, making it difficult to associate the activity with one of the many mapped faults in the area and thus to improve the assessment of seismic hazard in the region. We used Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) data from the European Space Agency’s Envisat and ERS‐2 satellites to improve the location and source parameters of the largest event of the sequence (Mw 5.1), which occurred on 22 June 2004. The mainshock caused a small but distinct ∼2.7  cm displacement signal in the InSAR data, which reveals where the earthquake took place and shows that seismic reports mislocated it by 3–16 km. With Bayesian estimation, we modeled the InSAR data using a finite‐fault model in a homogeneous elastic half‐space and found the mainshock activated a normal fault, roughly 70 km southeast of the city of Tabuk. The southwest‐dipping fault has a strike that is roughly parallel to the Red Sea rift, and we estimate the centroid depth of the earthquake to be ∼3.2  km. Projection of the fault model uncertainties to the surface indicates that one of the west‐dipping normal faults located in the area and oriented parallel to the Red Sea is a likely source for the mainshock. The results demonstrate how InSAR can be used to improve locations of moderate‐size earthquakes and thus to identify currently active faults.

20 cool facts about the New Madrid Seismic Zone-Commemorating the bicentennial of the New Madrid earthquake sequence, December 1811-February 1812 [poster

Science.gov (United States)

Williams, R.A.; McCallister, N.S.; Dart, R.L.

2011-01-01

This poster summarizes a few of the more significant facts about the series of large earthquakes that struck the New Madrid seismic zone of southeastern Missouri, northeastern Arkansas, and adjacent parts of Tennessee and Kentucky from December 1811 to February 1812. Three earthquakes in this sequence had a magnitude (M) of 7.0 or greater. The first earthquake occurred on December 16, 1811, at 2:15 a.m.; the second on January 23, 1812, at 9 a.m.; and the third on February 7, 1812, at 3:45 a.m. These three earthquakes were among the largest to strike North America since European settlement. The mainshocks were followed by many hundreds of aftershocks that occurred over the next decade. Many of the aftershocks were major earthquakes themselves. The area that was strongly shaken by the three main shocks was 2-3 times as large as the strongly shaken area of the 1964 M9.2 Alaskan earthquake and 10 times as large as that of the 1906 M7.8 San Francisco earthquake. Geologic studies show that the 1811-1812 sequence was not an isolated event in the New Madrid region. The 1811-1812 New Madrid earthquake sequence was preceded by at least two other similar sequences in about A.D. 1450 and A.D. 900. Research also indicates that other large earthquakes have occurred in the region surrounding the main New Madrid seismicity trends in the past 5,000 years or so.

The 2007 Nazko, British Columbia, earthquake sequence: Injection of magma deep in the crust beneath the Anahim volcanic belt

Science.gov (United States)

Cassidy, J.F.; Balfour, N.; Hickson, C.; Kao, H.; White, Rickie; Caplan-Auerbach, J.; Mazzotti, S.; Rogers, Gary C.; Al-Khoubbi, I.; Bird, A.L.; Esteban, L.; Kelman, M.; Hutchinson, J.; McCormack, D.

2011-01-01

On 9 October 2007, an unusual sequence of earthquakes began in central British Columbia about 20 km west of the Nazko cone, the most recent (circa 7200 yr) volcanic center in the Anahim volcanic belt. Within 25 hr, eight earthquakes of magnitude 2.3-2.9 occurred in a region where no earthquakes had previously been recorded. During the next three weeks, more than 800 microearthquakes were located (and many more detected), most at a depth of 25-31 km and within a radius of about 5 km. After about two months, almost all activity ceased. The clear P- and S-wave arrivals indicated that these were high-frequency (volcanic-tectonic) earthquakes and the b value of 1.9 that we calculated is anomalous for crustal earthquakes but consistent with volcanic-related events. Analysis of receiver functions at a station immediately above the seismicity indicated a Moho near 30 km depth. Precise relocation of the seismicity using a double-difference method suggested a horizontal migration at the rate of about 0:5 km=d, with almost all events within the lowermost crust. Neither harmonic tremor nor long-period events were observed; however, some spasmodic bursts were recorded and determined to be colocated with the earthquake hypocenters. These observations are all very similar to a deep earthquake sequence recorded beneath Lake Tahoe, California, in 2003-2004. Based on these remarkable similarities, we interpret the Nazko sequence as an indication of an injection of magma into the lower crust beneath the Anahim volcanic belt. This magma injection fractures rock, producing high-frequency, volcanic-tectonic earthquakes and spasmodic bursts.

Analysis of the 2005-2016 Earthquake Sequence in Northern Iran Using the Visibility Graph Method

Science.gov (United States)

Khoshnevis, Naeem; Taborda, Ricardo; Azizzadeh-Roodpish, Shima; Telesca, Luciano

2017-11-01

We present an analysis of the seismicity of northern Iran in the period between 2005 and 2016 using a recently introduced method based on concepts of graph theory. The method relies on the inter-event visibility defined in terms of a connectivity degree parameter, k, which is correlated with the earthquake magnitude, M. Previous studies show that the slope m of the line fitting the k- M plot by the least squares method also observes a relationship with the b value from the Gutenberg-Richter law, thus rendering the graph analysis useful to examine the seismicity of a region. These correlations seem to hold for the analysis of relatively small sequences of earthquakes, offering the possibility of studying seismicity parameters in time. We apply this approach to the case of the seismicity of northern Iran, using an earthquake catalog for the tectonic seismic regions of Azerbaijan, Alborz, and Kopeh Dagh. We use results drawn for this region with the visibility graph approach in combination with results from other similar studies to further improve the universal relationship between m and b, and show that the visibility graph approach can be considered as a valid alternative for analyzing regional seismicity properties and earthquake sequences.

The Preliminary Study of the 4 March 2010 Mw 6.3 Jiasian, Taiwan Earthquake Sequence

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Hsin-Hua Huang

2011-01-01

Full Text Available On 4 March 2010, an inland Mw 6.3 earthquake occurred near the town of Jiasian in Kaohsiung County, Taiwan causing large ground shaking and extensive damage. In this study, we integrate the records from the Central Weather Bureau Seismic Network (CWBSN and Taiwan Strong Motion Instrumentation Program (TSMIP to obtain the relocated earthquake sequence and its first-motion focal mechanisms. This dataset offers us precise and reliable results which suggest a focal depth of 23 km and a possible fault plane of strike 313¢X, dip 41¢X, and rake 42¢X for the Jiasian earthquake. This fault plane significantly differs from the N-S striking Chaochou Fault (CCF as well as the principal trend of Taiwan orogenic belt, and should be an undiscovered fault in southern Taiwan. The relocated Jiasian earthquake sequence initiating from the 23-km-deep mainshock and terminating at around 10 km in depth also indicates it is a blind fault. Peak ground acceleration (PGA and peak ground velocity (PGV recorded by the TSMIP stations reveal a distinct NW-SE-shape pattern from the epicenter area toward the Chiayi region, likely due to the directivity and site effects. Such phenomena should be considered for future regional hazard assessments.

Surface-seismic imaging for nehrp soil profile classifications and earthquake hazards in urban areas

Science.gov (United States)

Williams, R.A.; Stephenson, W.J.; Odum, J.K.

1998-01-01

We acquired high-resolution seismic-refraction data on the ground surface in selected areas of the San Fernando Valley (SFV) to help explain the earthquake damage patterns and the variation in ground motion caused by the 17 January 1994 magnitude 6.7 Northridge earthquake. We used these data to determine the compressional- and shear-wave velocities (Vp and Vs) at 20 aftershock recording sites to 30-m depth ( V??s30, and V??p30). Two other sites, located next to boreholes with downhole Vp and Vs data, show that we imaged very similar seismic-vefocity structures in the upper 40 m. Overall, high site response appears to be associated with tow Vs in the near surface, but there can be a wide rangepf site amplifications for a given NEHRP soil type. The data suggest that for the SFV, if the V??s30 is known, we can determine whether the earthquake ground motion will be amplified above a factor of 2 relative to a local rock site.

Site Effects Study In Athens (greece) Using The 7th September 1999 Earthquake Aftershock Sequence

Science.gov (United States)

Serpetsidaki, A.; Sokos, E.

On 7 September 1999 at 11:56:50 GMT, an earthquake of Mw=5.9 occurred at Athens capital of Greece. The epicenter was located in the Northwest area of Parnitha Moun- tain at 18km distance from the city centre. This earthquake was one of the most de- structive in Greece during the modern times. The intensity of the earthquake reached IX in the Northwest territories of the city and caused the death of 143 people and seri- ous structural damage in many buildings. On the 13th of September the Seismological Laboratory of Patras University, installed a seismic network of 30 stations in order to observe the evolution of the aftershock sequence. This temporary seismic network remained in the area of Attika for 50 days and recorded a significant part of the af- tershock sequence. In this paper we use the high quality recordings of this network to investigate the influence of the surface geology to the seismic motion, on sites within the epicentral area, which suffered the most during this earthquake. We applied the horizontal-to-vertical (H/V) spectral ratio method on noise and on earthquake records and the obtained results exhibit very good agreement. Finally we compare the results with the geological conditions of the study area and the damage distribution. Most of the obtained amplification levels were low with an exemption in the site of Ano Liosia were a significant amount of damage was observed and the results indicate that the earthquake motion was amplified four times. Based on the above we conclude that the damages in the city of Athens were due to source effects rather than site effects.

One Basin, One Stress Regime, One Orientation of Seismogenic Basement Faults, Variable Spatio-Temporal Slip Histories: Lessons from Fort Worth Basin Induced Earthquake Sequences

Science.gov (United States)

DeShon, H. R.; Brudzinski, M.; Frohlich, C.; Hayward, C.; Jeong, S.; Hornbach, M. J.; Magnani, M. B.; Ogwari, P.; Quinones, L.; Scales, M. M.; Stump, B. W.; Sufri, O.; Walter, J. I.

2017-12-01

Since October 2008, the Fort Worth basin in north Texas has experienced over 30 magnitude (M) 3.0+ earthquakes, including one M4.0. Five named earthquake sequences have been recorded by local seismic networks: DFW Airport, Cleburne-Johnson County, Azle, Irving-Dallas, and Venus-Johnson County. Earthquakes have occurred on northeast (NE)-southwest (SW) trending Precambrian basement faults and within the overlying Ellenburger limestone unit used for wastewater disposal. Focal mechanisms indicate primarily normal faulting, and stress inversions indicate maximum regional horizontal stress strikes 20-30° NE. The seismogenic sections of the faults in either the basement or within the Ellenburger appear optimally oriented for failure within the modern stress regime. Stress drop estimates range from 10 to 75 bars, with little variability between and within the named sequences, and the values are consistent with intraplate earthquake stress drops in natural tectonic settings. However, the spatio-temporal history of each sequence relative to wastewater injection data varies. The May 2015 M4.0 Venus earthquake, for example, is only the largest of what is nearly 10 years of earthquake activity on a single fault structure. Here, maximum earthquake size has increased with time and exhibits a log-linear relationship to cumulative injected volume from 5 nearby wells. At the DFW airport, where the causative well was shut-in within a few months of the initial earthquakes and soon after the well began operation, we document migration away from the injector on the same fault for nearly 6 km sporadically over 5 years. The Irving-Dallas and Azle sequences, like DFW airport, appear to have started rather abruptly with just a few small magnitude earthquakes in the weeks or months preceding the significant set of magnitude 3.5+ earthquakes associated with each sequence. There are no nearby (<10 km) injection operations to the Irving-Dallas sequence and the Azle linked wells operated for

The 2008 Wells, Nevada earthquake sequence: Source constraints using calibrated multiple event relocation and InSAR

Science.gov (United States)

Nealy, Jennifer; Benz, Harley M.; Hayes, Gavin; Berman, Eric; Barnhart, William

2017-01-01

The 2008 Wells, NV earthquake represents the largest domestic event in the conterminous U.S. outside of California since the October 1983 Borah Peak earthquake in southern Idaho. We present an improved catalog, magnitude complete to 1.6, of the foreshock-aftershock sequence, supplementing the current U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Preliminary Determination of Epicenters (PDE) catalog with 1,928 well-located events. In order to create this catalog, both subspace and kurtosis detectors are used to obtain an initial set of earthquakes and associated locations. The latter are then calibrated through the implementation of the hypocentroidal decomposition method and relocated using the BayesLoc relocation technique. We additionally perform a finite fault slip analysis of the mainshock using InSAR observations. By combining the relocated sequence with the finite fault analysis, we show that the aftershocks occur primarily updip and along the southwestern edge of the zone of maximum slip. The aftershock locations illuminate areas of post-mainshock strain increase; aftershock depths, ranging from 5 to 16 km, are consistent with InSAR imaging, which shows that the Wells earthquake was a buried source with no observable near-surface offset.

Seismotectonic framework of the 2010 February 27 Mw 8.8 Maule, Chile earthquake sequence

Science.gov (United States)

Hayes, Gavin P.; Bergman, Eric; Johnson, Kendra J.; Benz, Harley M.; Brown, Lucy; Meltzer, Anne S.

2013-01-01

After the 2010 Mw 8.8 Maule earthquake, an international collaboration involving teams and instruments from Chile, the US, the UK, France and Germany established the International Maule Aftershock Deployment temporary network over the source region of the event to facilitate detailed, open-access studies of the aftershock sequence. Using data from the first 9-months of this deployment, we have analyzed the detailed spatial distribution of over 2500 well-recorded aftershocks. All earthquakes have been relocated using a hypocentral decomposition algorithm to study the details of and uncertainties in both their relative and absolute locations. We have computed regional moment tensor solutions for the largest of these events to produce a catalogue of 465 mechanisms, and have used all of these data to study the spatial distribution of the aftershock sequence with respect to the Chilean megathrust. We refine models of co-seismic slip distribution of the Maule earthquake, and show how small changes in fault geometries assumed in teleseismic finite fault modelling significantly improve fits to regional GPS data, implying that the accuracy of rapid teleseismic fault models can be substantially improved by consideration of existing fault geometry model databases. We interpret all of these data in an integrated seismotectonic framework for the Maule earthquake rupture and its aftershock sequence, and discuss the relationships between co-seismic rupture and aftershock distributions. While the majority of aftershocks are interplate thrust events located away from regions of maximum co-seismic slip, interesting clusters of aftershocks are identified in the lower plate at both ends of the main shock rupture, implying internal deformation of the slab in response to large slip on the plate boundary interface. We also perform Coulomb stress transfer calculations to compare aftershock locations and mechanisms to static stress changes following the Maule rupture. Without the

Detailed observations of California foreshock sequences: Implications for the earthquake initiation process

Science.gov (United States)

Dodge, D.A.; Beroza, G.C.; Ellsworth, W.L.

1996-01-01

We find that foreshocks provide clear evidence for an extended nucleation process before some earthquakes. In this study, we examine in detail the evolution of six California foreshock sequences, the 1986 Mount Lewis (ML, = 5.5), the 1986 Chalfant (ML = 6.4), the. 1986 Stone Canyon (ML = 4.7), the 1990 Upland (ML = 5.2), the 1992 Joshua Tree (MW= 6.1), and the 1992 Landers (MW = 7.3) sequence. Typically, uncertainties in hypocentral parameters are too large to establish the geometry of foreshock sequences and hence to understand their evolution. However, the similarity of location and focal mechanisms for the events in these sequences leads to similar foreshock waveforms that we cross correlate to obtain extremely accurate relative locations. We use these results to identify small-scale fault zone structures that could influence nucleation and to determine the stress evolution leading up to the mainshock. In general, these foreshock sequences are not compatible with a cascading failure nucleation model in which the foreshocks all occur on a single fault plane and trigger the mainshock by static stress transfer. Instead, the foreshocks seem to concentrate near structural discontinuities in the fault and may themselves be a product of an aseismic nucleation process. Fault zone heterogeneity may also be important in controlling the number of foreshocks, i.e., the stronger the heterogeneity, the greater the number of foreshocks. The size of the nucleation region, as measured by the extent of the foreshock sequence, appears to scale with mainshock moment in the same manner as determined independently by measurements of the seismic nucleation phase. We also find evidence for slip localization as predicted by some models of earthquake nucleation. Copyright 1996 by the American Geophysical Union.

Static stress transfer during the 2002 Nenana Mountain-Denali Fault, Alaska, earthquake sequence

Science.gov (United States)

Anderson, G.; Ji, C.

2003-01-01

On 23 October 2002, the Mw 6.7 Nenana Mountain earthquake occurred in central Alaska. It was followed on 3 November 2002 by the Mw 7.9 Denali Fault mainshock, the largest strike-slip earthquake to occur in North America during the past 150 years. We have modeled static Coulomb stress transfer effects during this sequence. We find that the Nenana Mountain foreshock transferred 30-50 kPa of Coulomb stress to the hypocentral region of the Denali Fault mainshock, encouraging its occurrence. We also find that the two main earthquakes together transferred more than 400 kPa of Coulomb stress to the Cross Creek segment of the Totschunda fault system and to the Denali fault southeast of the mainshock rupture, and up to 80 kPa to the Denali fault west of the Nenana Mountain rupture. Other major faults in the region experienced much smaller static Coulomb stress changes.

Fluid-driven normal faulting earthquake sequences in the Taiwan orogen

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Ling-hua; Rau, Ruey-Juin; Lee, En-Jui

2017-04-01

Seismicity in the Central Range of Taiwan shows normal faulting mechanisms with T-axes directing NE, subparallel to the strike of the mountain belt. We analyze earthquake sequences occurred within 2012-2015 in the Nanshan area of northern Taiwan which indicating swarm behavior and migration characteristics. We select events larger than 2.0 from Central Weather Bureau catalog and use the double-difference relocation program hypoDD with waveform cross-correlation in the Nanshan area. We obtained a final count of 1406 (95%) relocated earthquakes. Moreover, we compute focal mechanisms using USGS program HASH by P-wave first motion and S/P ratio picking and 114 fault plane solutions with M 3.0-5.87 were determined. To test for fluid diffusion, we model seismicity using the equation of Shapiro et al. (1997) by fitting earthquake diffusing rate D during the migration period. According to the relocation result, seismicity in the Taiwan orogenic belt present mostly N25E orientation parallel to the mountain belt with the same direction of the tension axis. In addition, another seismic fracture depicted by seismicity rotated 35 degree counterclockwise to the NW direction. Nearly all focal mechanisms are normal fault type. In the Nanshan area, events show N10W distribution with a focal depth range from 5-12 km and illustrate fault plane dipping about 45-60 degree to SW. Three months before the M 5.87 mainshock which occurred in March, 2013, there were some foreshock events occurred in the shallow part of the fault plane of the mainshock. Half a year following the mainshock, earthquakes migrated to the north and south, respectively with processes matched the diffusion model at a rate of 0.2-0.6 m2/s. This migration pattern and diffusion rate offer an evidence of 'fluid-driven' process in the fault zone. We also find the upward migration of earthquakes in the mainshock source region. These phenomena are likely caused by the opening of the permeable conduit due to the M 5

Pre-earthquake multiparameter analysis of the 2016 Amatrice-Norcia (Central Italy) seismic sequence: a case study for the application of the SAFE project concepts

Science.gov (United States)

De Santis, A.

2017-12-01

The SAFE (Swarm for Earthquake study) project (funded by European Space Agency in the framework "STSE Swarm+Innovation", 2014-2016) aimed at applying the new approach of geosystemics to the analysis of Swarm satellite (ESA) electromagnetic data for investigating the preparatory phase of earthquakes. We present in this talk the case study of the most recent seismic sequence in Italy. First a M6 earthquake on 24 August 2016 and then a M6.5 earthquake on 30 October 2016 shocked almost in the same region of Central Italy causing about 300 deaths in total (mostly on 24 August), with a revival of other significant seismicity on January 2017. Analysing both geophysical and climatological satellite and ground data preceding the major earthquakes of the sequence we present results that confirm a complex solid earth-atmosphere coupling in the preparation phase of the whole sequence.

Romanian crustal earthquake sequences: evidence for space and time clustering in correlation with seismic source properties

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Popescu, E.; Popa, M.; Radulian, M.

2002-01-01

The study of seismic sequences is important from both scientific point of view, and its socio-economical impact on human society. In this paper we analyze the crustal earthquake sequences in correlation with the seismogenic zones delimited on the Romanian territory using geological and tectonic information available. We consider on one hand the sequences typical for the Carpathians foreland region (Ramnicu Sarat, Vrancioaia and Sinaia seismic zones), which are associated with the Vrancea subduction process and, on the other hand the sequences typical for the contact between the Pannonian Basin and Carpathians orogen (Banat seismic zone). To analyze the seismicity and source properties, we applied the fractal statistics and relative methods such as spectral ratio and deconvolution with the empirical Green's functions. On the basis of the retrieved source parameters for small and moderate size events the scaling relations for the characteristic properties of the seismic source are estimated. The scaling and earthquake clustering properties are correlated with the geological and rheological properties of the studied seismic areas. (authors)

Landslides triggered by the 1946 Ancash earthquake, Peru

Science.gov (United States)

Kampherm, T. S.; Evans, S. G.; Valderrama Murillo, P.

2009-04-01

The 1946 M7.3 Ancash Earthquake triggered a large number of landslides in an epicentral area that straddled the Continental Divide of South America in the Andes of Peru. A small number of landslides were described in reconnaissance reports by E. Silgado and Arnold Heim published shortly after the earthquake, but further details of the landslides triggered by the earthquake have not been reported since. Utilising field traverses, aerial photograph interpretation and GIS, our study mapped 45 landslides inferred to have been triggered by the event. 83% were rock avalanches involving Cretaceous limestones interbedded with shales. The five largest rock/debris avalanches occurred at Rio Llama (est. vol. 37 M m3), Suytucocha (est. vol., 13.5 Mm3), Quiches (est. vol. 10.5 Mm3 ), Pelagatos (est. vol. 8 Mm3), and Shundoy (est. vol. 8 Mm3). The Suytucocha, Quiches, and Pelagatos landslides were reported by Silgado and Heim. Rock slope failure was most common on slopes with a southwest aspect, an orientation corresponding to the regional dip direction of major planar structures in the Andean foreland belt (bedding planes and thrust faults). In valleys oriented transverse to the NW-SE structural grain of the epicentral area, south-westerly dipping bedding planes combined with orthogonal joint sets to form numerous wedge failures. Many initial rock slope failures were transformed into rock/debris avalanches by the entrainment of colluvium in their path. At Acobamba, a rock avalanche that transformed into a debris avalanche (est. vol. 4.3 Mm3) overwhelmed a village resulting in the deaths of 217 people. The cumulative volume-frequency plot shows a strong power law relation below a marked rollover, similar in form to that derived for landslides triggered by the 1994 Northridge Earthquake. The total volume of the 45 landslides is approximately 93 Mm3. The data point for the Ancash Earthquake plots near the regression line calculated by Keefer (1994), and modified by Malamud et al

The induced earthquake sequence related to the St. Gallen deep geothermal project (Switzerland): Fault reactivation and fluid interactions imaged by microseismicity

Science.gov (United States)

Diehl, T.; Kraft, T.; Kissling, E.; Wiemer, S.

2017-09-01

In July 2013, a sequence of more than 340 earthquakes was induced by reservoir stimulations and well-control procedures following a gas kick at a deep geothermal drilling project close to the city of St. Gallen, Switzerland. The sequence culminated in an ML 3.5 earthquake, which was felt within 10-15 km from the epicenter. High-quality earthquake locations and 3-D reflection seismic data acquired in the St. Gallen project provide a unique data set, which allows high-resolution studies of earthquake triggering related to the injection of fluids into macroscopic fault zones. In this study, we present a high-precision earthquake catalog of the induced sequence. Absolute locations are constrained by a coupled hypocenter-velocity inversion, and subsequent double-difference relocations image the geometry of the ML 3.5 rupture and resolve the spatiotemporal evolution of seismicity. A joint interpretation of earthquake and seismic data shows that the majority of the seismicity occurred in the pre-Mesozoic basement, hundreds of meters below the borehole and the targeted Mesozoic sequence. We propose a hydraulic connectivity between the reactivated fault and the borehole, likely through faults mapped by seismic data. Despite the excellent quality of the seismic data, the association of seismicity with mapped faults remains ambiguous. In summary, our results document that the actual hydraulic properties of a fault system and hydraulic connections between its fault segments are complex and may not be predictable upfront. Incomplete knowledge of fault structures and stress heterogeneities within highly complex fault systems additionally challenge the degree of predictability of induced seismicity related to underground fluid injections.

The 2012 Ferrara seismic sequence: Regional crustal structure, earthquake sources, and seismic hazard

Science.gov (United States)

Malagnini, Luca; Herrmann, Robert B.; Munafò, Irene; Buttinelli, Mauro; Anselmi, Mario; Akinci, Aybige; Boschi, E.

2012-10-01

Inadequate seismic design codes can be dangerous, particularly when they underestimate the true hazard. In this study we use data from a sequence of moderate-sized earthquakes in northeast Italy to validate and test a regional wave propagation model which, in turn, is used to understand some weaknesses of the current design spectra. Our velocity model, while regionalized and somewhat ad hoc, is consistent with geophysical observations and the local geology. In the 0.02-0.1 Hz band, this model is validated by using it to calculate moment tensor solutions of 20 earthquakes (5.6 ≥ MW ≥ 3.2) in the 2012 Ferrara, Italy, seismic sequence. The seismic spectra observed for the relatively small main shock significantly exceeded the design spectra to be used in the area for critical structures. Observations and synthetics reveal that the ground motions are dominated by long-duration surface waves, which, apparently, the design codes do not adequately anticipate. In light of our results, the present seismic hazard assessment in the entire Pianura Padana, including the city of Milan, needs to be re-evaluated.

Investigation of an Unusually Shallow Earthquake Sequence in Mogul, NV from a Discrimination Perspective

Science.gov (United States)

2014-08-31

the fault area that was active in the foreshock sequence. For this source dimension, a stress drop of 17.5 MPa was estimated, which is about 25% of...described by Anderson et al. (2009). Our relocation of the largest earthquake places the hypocenter 2.7 km below the surface. The foreshocks and...occurred after a sequence of foreshocks initiated on February 29, 56 days before the main shock (Figures 2 and 3). The triangular-shaped bounds for

Strong motions observed by K-NET and KiK-net during the 2016 Kumamoto earthquake sequence

Science.gov (United States)

Suzuki, Wataru; Aoi, Shin; Kunugi, Takashi; Kubo, Hisahiko; Morikawa, Nobuyuki; Nakamura, Hiromitsu; Kimura, Takeshi; Fujiwara, Hiroyuki

2017-01-01

The nationwide strong-motion seismograph network of K-NET and KiK-net in Japan successfully recorded the strong ground motions of the 2016 Kumamoto earthquake sequence, which show the several notable characteristics. For the first large earthquake with a JMA magnitude of 6.5 (21:26, April 14, 2016, JST), the large strong motions are concentrated near the epicenter and the strong-motion attenuations are well predicted by the empirical relation for crustal earthquakes with a moment magnitude of 6.1. For the largest earthquake of the sequence with a JMA magnitude of 7.3 (01:25, April 16, 2016, JST), the large peak ground accelerations and velocities extend from the epicentral area to the northeast direction. The attenuation feature of peak ground accelerations generally follows the empirical relation, whereas that for velocities deviates from the empirical relation for stations with the epicentral distance of greater than 200 km, which can be attributed to the large Love wave having a dominant period around 10 s. The large accelerations were observed at stations even in Oita region, more than 70 km northeast from the epicenter. They are attributed to the local induced earthquake in Oita region, whose moment magnitude is estimated to be 5.5 by matching the amplitudes of the corresponding phases with the empirical attenuation relation. The real-time strong-motion observation has a potential for contributing to the mitigation of the ongoing earthquake disasters. We test a methodology to forecast the regions to be exposed to the large shaking in real time, which has been developed based on the fact that the neighboring stations are already shaken, for the largest event of the Kumamoto earthquakes, and demonstrate that it is simple but effective to quickly make warning. We also shows that the interpolation of the strong motions in real time is feasible, which will be utilized for the real-time forecast of ground motions based on the observed shakings.[Figure not available

Rupture Speed and Dynamic Frictional Processes for the 1995 ML4.1 Shacheng, Hebei, China, Earthquake Sequence

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, B.; Shi, B.

2010-12-01

An earthquake with ML4.1 occurred at Shacheng, Hebei, China, on July 20, 1995, followed by 28 aftershocks with 0.9≤ML≤4.0 (Chen et al, 2005). According to ZÚÑIGA (1993), for the 1995 ML4.1 Shacheng earthquake sequence, the main shock is corresponding to undershoot, while aftershocks should match overshoot. With the suggestion that the dynamic rupture processes of the overshoot aftershocks could be related to the crack (sub-fault) extension inside the main fault. After main shock, the local stresses concentration inside the fault may play a dominant role in sustain the crack extending. Therefore, the main energy dissipation mechanism should be the aftershocks fracturing process associated with the crack extending. We derived minimum radiation energy criterion (MREC) following variational principle (Kanamori and Rivera, 2004)(ES/M0')min≧[3M0/(ɛπμR3)](v/β)3, where ES and M0' are radiated energy and seismic moment gained from observation, μ is the modulus of fault rigidity, ɛ is the parameter of ɛ=M0'/M0,M0 is seismic moment and R is rupture size on the fault, v and β are rupture speed and S-wave speed. From II and III crack extending model, we attempt to reconcile a uniform expression for calculate seismic radiation efficiency ηG, which can be used to restrict the upper limit efficiency and avoid the non-physics phenomenon that radiation efficiency is larger than 1. In ML 4.1 Shacheng earthquake sequence, the rupture speed of the main shock was about 0.86 of S-wave speed β according to MREC, closing to the Rayleigh wave speed, while the rupture speeds of the remained 28 aftershocks ranged from 0.05β to 0.55β. The rupture speed was 0.9β, and most of the aftershocks are no more than 0.35β using II and III crack extending model. In addition, the seismic radiation efficiencies for this earthquake sequence were: for the most aftershocks, the radiation efficiencies were less than 10%, inferring a low seismic efficiency, whereas the radiation efficiency

A strong-motion hot spot of the 2016 Meinong, Taiwan, earthquake (Mw = 6.4

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Hiroo Kanamori

2017-01-01

Full Text Available Despite a moderate magnitude, Mw = 6.4, the 5 February 2016 Meinong, Taiwan, earthquake caused significant damage in Tainan City and the surrounding areas. Several seismograms display an impulsive S-wave velocity pulse with an amplitude of about 1 m s-1, which is similar to large S-wave pulses recorded for the past several larger damaging earthquakes, such as the 1995 Kobe, Japan, earthquake (Mw = 6.9 and the 1994 Northridge, California, earthquake (Mw = 6.7. The observed PGV in the Tainan area is about 10 times larger than the median PGV of Mw = 6.4 crustal earthquakes in Taiwan. We investigate the cause of the localized strong ground motions. The peak-to-peak ground-motion displacement at the basin sites near Tainan is about 35 times larger than that at a mountain site with a similar epicentral distance. At some frequency bands (0.9 - 1.1 Hz, the amplitude ratio is as large as 200. Using the focal mechanism of this earthquake, typical “soft” and “hard” crustal structures, and directivity inferred from the observed waveforms and the slip distribution, we show that the combined effect yields an amplitude ratio of 17 to 34. The larger amplitude ratios at higher frequency bands can be probably due to the effects of complex 3-D basin structures. The result indicates that even from a moderate event, if these effects simultaneously work together toward amplifying ground motions, the extremely large ground motions as observed in Tainan can occur. Such occurrences should be taken into consideration in hazard mitigation measures in the place with frequent moderate earthquakes.

Numerical modeling of block structure dynamics: Application to the Vrancea region and study of earthquakes sequences in the synthetic catalogs

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Soloviev, A.A.; Vorobieva, I.A.

1995-08-01

A seismically active region is represented as a system of absolutely rigid blocks divided by infinitely thin plane faults. The interaction of the blocks along the fault planes and with the underlying medium is viscous-elastic. The system of blocks moves as a consequence of prescribed motion of boundary blocks and the underlying medium. When for some part of a fault plane the stress surpasses a certain strength level a stress-drop (''a failure'') occurs. It can cause a failure for other parts of fault planes. The failures are considered as earthquakes. As a result of the numerical simulation a synthetic earthquake catalogue is produced. This procedure is applied for numerical modeling of dynamics of the block structure approximating the tectonic structure of the Vrancea region. By numerical experiments the values of the model parameters were obtained which supplied the synthetic earthquake catalog with the space distribution of epicenters close to the real distribution of the earthquake epicenters in the Vrancea region. The frequency-magnitude relations (Gutenberg-Richter curves) obtained for the synthetic and real catalogs have some common features. The sequences of earthquakes arising in the model are studied for some artificial structures. It is found that ''foreshocks'', ''main shocks'', and ''aftershocks'' could be detected among earthquakes forming the sequences. The features of aftershocks, foreshocks, and catalogs of main shocks are analysed. (author). 5 refs, 12 figs, 16 tabs

Finding positives after disaster: Insights from nurses following the 2010-2011 Canterbury, NZ earthquake sequence.

Science.gov (United States)

Johal, Sarbjit S; Mounsey, Zoe R

2015-11-01

This paper identifies positive aspects of nurse experiences during the Canterbury 2010-2011 earthquake sequence and subsequent recovery process. Qualitative semi-structured interviews were undertaken with 11 nurses from the Christchurch area to explore the challenges faced by the nurses during and following the earthquakes. The interviews took place three years after the start of the earthquake experience to enable exploration of the longer term recovery process. The interview transcripts were analysed and coded using a grounded theory approach. The data analysis identified that despite the many challenges faced by the nurses during and following the earthquakes they were able to identify positives from their experience. A number of themes were identified that are related to posttraumatic growth, including; improvement in relationships with others, change in perspective/values, changed views of self and acknowledgement of the value of the experience. The research indicates that nurses were able to identify positive aspects of their experiences of the earthquakes and recovery process, suggesting that both positive and negative impacts on wellbeing can co-exist. These insights have value for employers designing support processes following disasters as focusing on positive elements could enhance nurse wellbeing during stressful times. Copyright © 2015 College of Emergency Nursing Australasia Ltd. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Climate Science Program at California State University, Northridge

Science.gov (United States)

Steele Cox, H.; Klein, D.; Cadavid, A. C.; Foley, B.

2012-12-01

Due to its interdisciplinary nature, climate science poses wide-ranging challenges for science and mathematics students seeking careers in this field. There is a compelling need for universities to provide coherent programs in climate science in order to train future climate scientists. With funding from NASA Innovations in Climate Education (NICE), California State University, Northridge (CSUN), is creating the CSUN Climate Science Program. An interdisciplinary team of faculty members is working in collaboration with UCLA, Santa Monica College and NASA/JPL partners to create a new curriculum in climate science. The resulting sequence of climate science courses, or Pathway for studying the Mathematics of Climate Change (PMCC), is integrated into a Bachelor of Science degree program in the Applied Mathematical Sciences offered by the Mathematics Department at CSUN. The PMCC consists of courses offered by the departments of Mathematics, Physics, and Geography and is designed to prepare students for Ph.D. programs in technical fields relevant to global climate change and related careers. The students who choose to follow this program will be guided to enroll in the following sequence of courses for their 12 units of upper division electives: 1) A newly created course junior level course, Math 396CL, in applied mathematics which will introduce students to applications of vector calculus and differential equations to the study of thermodynamics and atmospheric dynamics. 2) An already existing course, Math 483, with new content on mathematical modeling specialized for this program; 3) An improved version of Phys 595CL on the mathematics and physics of climate change with emphasis on Radiative Transfer; 4) A choice of Geog 407 on Remote Sensing or Geog 416 on Climate Change with updated content to train the students in the analysis of satellite data obtained with the NASA Earth Observing System and instruction in the analysis of data obtained within a Geographical

The role of INGVterremoti blog in information management during the earthquake sequence in central Italy

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Maurizio Pignone

2017-01-01

Full Text Available In this paper, we describe the role the INGVterremoti blog in information management during the first part of the earthquake sequence in central Italy (August 24 to September 30. In the last four years, we have been working on the INGVterremoti blog in order to provide quick updates on the ongoing seismic activity in Italy and in-depth scientific information. These include articles on specific historical earthquakes, seismic hazard, geological interpretations, source models from different type of data, effects at the surface, and so on. We have delivered information in quasi-real-time also about all the recent magnitude M≥4.0 earthquakes in Italy, the strongest events in the Mediterranean and in the world. During the 2016 central Italy, the INGVterremoti blog has continuously released information about seismic sequences with three types of posts: i updates on the ongoing seismic activity; ii reports on the activities carried out by the INGV teams in the field and any other working groups; iii in-depth scientific articles describing some specific analysis and results. All the blog posts have been shared automatically and in real time on the other social media of the INGVterremoti platform, also to counter the bad information and to fight rumors. These include Facebook, Twitter and INGVterremoti App on IOS and Android. As well, both the main INGV home page (http://www.ingv.it and the INGV earthquake portal (http://terremoti.ingv.it have published the contents of the blog on dedicated pages that were fed automatically. The work done day by day on the INGVterremoti blog has been coordinated with the INGV Press Office that has written several press releases based on the contents of the blog. Since August 24, 53 articles were published on the blog they have had more than 1.9 million views and 1 million visitors. The peak in the number of views, which was more than 800,000 in a single day, was registered on August 24, 2016, following the M 6

Hazus® estimated annualized earthquake losses for the United States

Science.gov (United States)

Jaiswal, Kishor; Bausch, Doug; Rozelle, Jesse; Holub, John; McGowan, Sean

2017-01-01

Large earthquakes can cause social and economic disruption that can be unprecedented to any given community, and the full recovery from these impacts may or may not always be achievable. In the United States (U.S.), the 1994 M6.7 Northridge earthquake in California remains the third costliest disaster in U.S. history; and it was one of the most expensive disasters for the federal government. Internationally, earthquakes in the last decade alone have claimed tens of thousands of lives and caused hundreds of billions of dollars of economic impact throughout the globe (~90 billion U.S. dollars (USD) from 2008 M7.9 Wenchuan China, ~20 billion USD from 2010 M8.8 Maule earthquake in Chile, ~220 billion USD from 2011 M9.0 Tohoku Japan earthquake, ~25 billion USD from 2011 M6.3 Christchurch New Zealand, and ~22 billion USD from 2016 M7.0 Kumamoto Japan). Recent earthquakes show a pattern of steadily increasing damages and losses that are primarily due to three key factors: (1) significant growth in earthquake-prone urban areas, (2) vulnerability of the older building stock, including poorly engineered non-ductile concrete buildings, and (3) an increased interdependency in terms of supply and demand for the businesses that operate among different parts of the world. In the United States, earthquake risk continues to grow with increased exposure of population and development even though the earthquake hazard has remained relatively stable except for the regions of induced seismic activity. Understanding the seismic hazard requires studying earthquake characteristics and locales in which they occur, while understanding the risk requires an assessment of the potential damage from earthquake shaking to the built environment and to the welfare of people—especially in high-risk areas. Estimating the varying degree of earthquake risk throughout the United States is critical for informed decision-making on mitigation policies, priorities, strategies, and funding levels in the

A methodology for analyzing precursors to earthquake-initiated and fire-initiated accident sequences

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Budnitz, R.J.; Lambert, H.E.; Apostolakis, G.

1998-04-01

This report covers work to develop a methodology for analyzing precursors to both earthquake-initiated and fire-initiated accidents at commercial nuclear power plants. Currently, the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission sponsors a large ongoing project, the Accident Sequence Precursor project, to analyze the safety significance of other types of accident precursors, such as those arising from internally-initiated transients and pipe breaks, but earthquakes and fires are not within the current scope. The results of this project are that: (1) an overall step-by-step methodology has been developed for precursors to both fire-initiated and seismic-initiated potential accidents; (2) some stylized case-study examples are provided to demonstrate how the fully-developed methodology works in practice, and (3) a generic seismic-fragility date base for equipment is provided for use in seismic-precursors analyses. 44 refs., 23 figs., 16 tabs

Prediction of accident sequence probabilities in a nuclear power plant due to earthquake events

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hudson, J.M.; Collins, J.D.

1980-01-01

This paper presents a methodology to predict accident probabilities in nuclear power plants subject to earthquakes. The resulting computer program accesses response data to compute component failure probabilities using fragility functions. Using logical failure definitions for systems, and the calculated component failure probabilities, initiating event and safety system failure probabilities are synthesized. The incorporation of accident sequence expressions allows the calculation of terminal event probabilities. Accident sequences, with their occurrence probabilities, are finally coupled to a specific release category. A unique aspect of the methodology is an analytical procedure for calculating top event probabilities based on the correlated failure of primary events

Long-term earthquake forecasts based on the epidemic-type aftershock sequence (ETAS model for short-term clustering

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jiancang Zhuang

2012-07-01

Full Text Available Based on the ETAS (epidemic-type aftershock sequence model, which is used for describing the features of short-term clustering of earthquake occurrence, this paper presents some theories and techniques related to evaluating the probability distribution of the maximum magnitude in a given space-time window, where the Gutenberg-Richter law for earthquake magnitude distribution cannot be directly applied. It is seen that the distribution of the maximum magnitude in a given space-time volume is determined in the longterm by the background seismicity rate and the magnitude distribution of the largest events in each earthquake cluster. The techniques introduced were applied to the seismicity in the Japan region in the period from 1926 to 2009. It was found that the regions most likely to have big earthquakes are along the Tohoku (northeastern Japan Arc and the Kuril Arc, both with much higher probabilities than the offshore Nankai and Tokai regions.

Using regional moment tensors to constrain the kinematics and stress evolution of the 2010–2013 Canterbury earthquake sequence, South Island, New Zealand

Science.gov (United States)

Herman, Matthew W.; Herrmann, Robert B.; Benz, Harley M.; Furlong, Kevin P.

2014-01-01

On September 3, 2010, a MW 7.0 (U.S. Geological Survey moment magnitude) earthquake ruptured across the Canterbury Plains in South Island, New Zealand. Since then, New Zealand GNS Science has recorded over 10,000 aftershocks ML 2.0 and larger, including three destructive ~ MW 6.0 earthquakes near Christchurch. We treat the Canterbury earthquake sequence as an intraplate earthquake sequence, and compare its kinematics to an Andersonian model for fault slip in a uniform stress field. We determined moment magnitudes and double couple solutions for 150 earthquakes having MW 3.7 and larger through the use of a waveform inversion technique using data from broadband seismic stations on South Island, New Zealand. The majority (126) of these double couple solutions have strike-slip focal mechanisms, with right-lateral slip on ENE fault planes or equivalently left-lateral slip on SSE fault planes. The remaining focal mechanisms indicate reverse faulting, except for two normal faulting events. The strike-slip segments have compatible orientations for slip in a stress field with a horizontal σ1 oriented ~ N115°E, and horizontal σ3. The preference for right lateral strike-slip earthquakes suggests that these structures are inherited from previous stages of deformation. Reverse slip is interpreted to have occurred on previously existing structures in regions with an absence of existing structures optimally oriented for strike-slip deformation. Despite the variations in slip direction and faulting style, most aftershocks had nearly the same P-axis orientation, consistent with the regional σ1. There is no evidence for significant changes in these stress orientations throughout the Canterbury earthquake sequence.

Dynamic rupture scenarios from Sumatra to Iceland - High-resolution earthquake source physics on natural fault systems

Science.gov (United States)

Gabriel, Alice-Agnes; Madden, Elizabeth H.; Ulrich, Thomas; Wollherr, Stephanie

2017-04-01

Capturing the observed complexity of earthquake sources in dynamic rupture simulations may require: non-linear fault friction, thermal and fluid effects, heterogeneous fault stress and fault strength initial conditions, fault curvature and roughness, on- and off-fault non-elastic failure. All of these factors have been independently shown to alter dynamic rupture behavior and thus possibly influence the degree of realism attainable via simulated ground motions. In this presentation we will show examples of high-resolution earthquake scenarios, e.g. based on the 2004 Sumatra-Andaman Earthquake, the 1994 Northridge earthquake and a potential rupture of the Husavik-Flatey fault system in Northern Iceland. The simulations combine a multitude of representations of source complexity at the necessary spatio-temporal resolution enabled by excellent scalability on modern HPC systems. Such simulations allow an analysis of the dominant factors impacting earthquake source physics and ground motions given distinct tectonic settings or distinct focuses of seismic hazard assessment. Across all simulations, we find that fault geometry concurrently with the regional background stress state provide a first order influence on source dynamics and the emanated seismic wave field. The dynamic rupture models are performed with SeisSol, a software package based on an ADER-Discontinuous Galerkin scheme for solving the spontaneous dynamic earthquake rupture problem with high-order accuracy in space and time. Use of unstructured tetrahedral meshes allows for a realistic representation of the non-planar fault geometry, subsurface structure and bathymetry. The results presented highlight the fact that modern numerical methods are essential to further our understanding of earthquake source physics and complement both physic-based ground motion research and empirical approaches in seismic hazard analysis.

Natural disasters and the gas pipeline system.

Science.gov (United States)

1996-11-01

Episodic descriptions are provided of the effects of the Loma Prieta earthquake (1989) on the gas pipeline systems of Pacific Gas & Electric Company and the Cit of Palo Alto and of the Northridge earthquake (1994) on Southern California Gas' pipeline...

Reflections on Communicating Science during the Canterbury Earthquake Sequence of 2010-2011, New Zealand

Science.gov (United States)

Wein, A. M.; Berryman, K. R.; Jolly, G. E.; Brackley, H. L.; Gledhill, K. R.

2015-12-01

The 2010-2011 Canterbury Earthquake Sequence began with the 4th September 2010 Darfield earthquake (Mw 7.1). Perhaps because there were no deaths, the mood of the city and the government was that high standards of earthquake engineering in New Zealand protected us, and there was a confident attitude to response and recovery. The demand for science and engineering information was of interest but not seen as crucial to policy, business or the public. The 22nd February 2011 Christchurch earthquake (Mw 6.2) changed all that; there was a significant death toll and many injuries. There was widespread collapse of older unreinforced and two relatively modern multi-storey buildings, and major disruption to infrastructure. The contrast in the interest and relevance of the science could not have been greater compared to 5 months previously. Magnitude 5+ aftershocks over a 20 month period resulted in confusion, stress, an inability to define a recovery trajectory, major concerns about whether insurers and reinsurers would continue to provide cover, very high levels of media interest from New Zealand and around the world, and high levels of political risk. As the aftershocks continued there was widespread speculation as to what the future held. During the sequence, the science and engineering sector sought to coordinate and offer timely and integrated advice. However, other than GeoNet, the national geophysical monitoring network, there were few resources devoted to communication, with the result that it was almost always reactive. With hindsight we have identified the need to resource information gathering and synthesis, execute strategic assessments of stakeholder needs, undertake proactive communication, and develop specific information packages for the diversity of users. Overall this means substantially increased resources. Planning is now underway for the science sector to adopt the New Zealand standardised CIMS (Coordinated Incident Management System) structure for

New insights on co- and post-seismic deformation and slip behavior associated with the Mw7.8 2016 Pedernales, Ecuador earthquake and its aftershock sequence

Science.gov (United States)

Soto-Cordero, L.; Nealy, J. L.; Meltzer, A.; Agurto-Detzel, H.; Alvarado, A. P.; Beck, S. L.; Benz, H.; Bergman, E. A.; Charvis, P.; Font, Y.; Hayes, G. P.; Hernandez, S.; Hoskins, M.; Leon Rios, S.; Lynner, C.; Regnier, M. M.; Rietbrock, A.; Stachnik, J. C.; Yeck, W. L.

2017-12-01

On April 16, 2016, a Mw7.8 earthquake, associated with oblique subduction of the Nazca Plate under South America, ruptured a segment approximately 130x100km in the region north of the intersection of the Carnegie ridge with the Ecuador subduction zone. The rupture coincides with the rupture area of the Mw7.8 1942 earthquake. To characterize the aftershock sequence, we analyze seismic data recorded by 30 stations from April 17, 2016 to May 8, 2017; 11 stations belong to Ecuador's national network and 19 are part of a PASSCAL temporary deployment. We apply a kurtosis detector to obtain automatic P- and S-wave picks. Earthquake locations, magnitudes, and regional moment tensors are obtained using the U.S. Geological Survey National Earthquake Information Center (NEIC) processing system. We also determine calibrated relocations using the Hypocentroidal Decomposition approach for a subset of events for which we combine phase readings from local and temporary PASSCAL stations with regional and teleseismic phase readings from the NEIC. In contrast with other earthquake relocation approaches, this method evaluates absolute location uncertainties for each event in the cluster, which allows us to more confidently assess the relationships between mainshock slip and aftershock activity. We find the aftershock sequence is characterized by a series of event clusters that predominantly surround the main rupture patches. However, the aftershocks extend beyond the mainshock rupture area, covering a region approximately 250x100km. Aftershocks north of the 2016 rupture fall in the rupture area of the Mw7.7 1958 earthquake. The southernmost region of elevated seismicity occurs south of a region of low coupling where the Carnegie ridge meets the subduction zone. The characterization of this sequence allows a detailed spatial and temporal analysis of the rupture processes, stress patterns and slip behavior during this earthquake sequence in Ecuador subduction zone.

Collective properties of injection-induced earthquake sequences: 1. Model description and directivity bias

Science.gov (United States)

Dempsey, David; Suckale, Jenny

2016-05-01

Induced seismicity is of increasing concern for oil and gas, geothermal, and carbon sequestration operations, with several M > 5 events triggered in recent years. Modeling plays an important role in understanding the causes of this seismicity and in constraining seismic hazard. Here we study the collective properties of induced earthquake sequences and the physics underpinning them. In this first paper of a two-part series, we focus on the directivity ratio, which quantifies whether fault rupture is dominated by one (unilateral) or two (bilateral) propagating fronts. In a second paper, we focus on the spatiotemporal and magnitude-frequency distributions of induced seismicity. We develop a model that couples a fracture mechanics description of 1-D fault rupture with fractal stress heterogeneity and the evolving pore pressure distribution around an injection well that triggers earthquakes. The extent of fault rupture is calculated from the equations of motion for two tips of an expanding crack centered at the earthquake hypocenter. Under tectonic loading conditions, our model exhibits a preference for unilateral rupture and a normal distribution of hypocenter locations, two features that are consistent with seismological observations. On the other hand, catalogs of induced events when injection occurs directly onto a fault exhibit a bias toward ruptures that propagate toward the injection well. This bias is due to relatively favorable conditions for rupture that exist within the high-pressure plume. The strength of the directivity bias depends on a number of factors including the style of pressure buildup, the proximity of the fault to failure and event magnitude. For injection off a fault that triggers earthquakes, the modeled directivity bias is small and may be too weak for practical detection. For two hypothetical injection scenarios, we estimate the number of earthquake observations required to detect directivity bias.

Geologic Inheritance and Earthquake Rupture Processes: The 1905 M ≥ 8 Tsetserleg-Bulnay Strike-Slip Earthquake Sequence, Mongolia

Science.gov (United States)

Choi, Jin-Hyuck; Klinger, Yann; Ferry, Matthieu; Ritz, Jean-François; Kurtz, Robin; Rizza, Magali; Bollinger, Laurent; Davaasambuu, Battogtokh; Tsend-Ayush, Nyambayar; Demberel, Sodnomsambuu

2018-02-01

In 1905, 14 days apart, two M 8 continental strike-slip earthquakes, the Tsetserleg and Bulnay earthquakes, occurred on the Bulnay fault system, in Mongolia. Together, they ruptured four individual faults, with a total length of 676 km. Using submetric optical satellite images "Pleiades" with ground resolution of 0.5 m, complemented by field observation, we mapped in detail the entire surface rupture associated with this earthquake sequence. Surface rupture along the main Bulnay fault is 388 km in length, striking nearly E-W. The rupture is formed by a series of fault segments that are 29 km long on average, separated by geometric discontinuities. Although there is a difference of about 2 m in the average slip between the western and eastern parts of the Bulnay rupture, along-fault slip variations are overall limited, resulting in a smooth slip distribution, except for local slip deficit at segment boundaries. We show that damage, including short branches and secondary faulting, associated with the rupture propagation, occurred significantly more often along the western part of the Bulnay rupture, while the eastern part of the rupture appears more localized and thus possibly structurally simpler. Eventually, the difference of slip between the western and eastern parts of the rupture is attributed to this difference of rupture localization, associated at first order with a lateral change in the local geology. Damage associated to rupture branching appears to be located asymmetrically along the extensional side of the strike-slip rupture and shows a strong dependence on structural geologic inheritance.

USGS GNSS Applications to Earthquake Disaster Response and Hazard Mitigation

Science.gov (United States)

Hudnut, K. W.; Murray, J. R.; Minson, S. E.

2015-12-01

Rapid characterization of earthquake rupture is important during a disaster because it establishes which fault ruptured and the extent and amount of fault slip. These key parameters, in turn, can augment in situ seismic sensors for identifying disruption to lifelines as well as localized damage along the fault break. Differential GNSS station positioning, along with imagery differencing, are important methods for augmenting seismic sensors. During response to recent earthquakes (1989 Loma Prieta, 1992 Landers, 1994 Northridge, 1999 Hector Mine, 2010 El Mayor - Cucapah, 2012 Brawley Swarm and 2014 South Napa earthquakes), GNSS co-seismic and post-seismic observations proved to be essential for rapid earthquake source characterization. Often, we find that GNSS results indicate key aspects of the earthquake source that would not have been known in the absence of GNSS data. Seismic, geologic, and imagery data alone, without GNSS, would miss important details of the earthquake source. That is, GNSS results provide important additional insight into the earthquake source properties, which in turn help understand the relationship between shaking and damage patterns. GNSS also adds to understanding of the distribution of slip along strike and with depth on a fault, which can help determine possible lifeline damage due to fault offset, as well as the vertical deformation and tilt that are vitally important for gravitationally driven water systems. The GNSS processing work flow that took more than one week 25 years ago now takes less than one second. Formerly, portable receivers needed to be set up at a site, operated for many hours, then data retrieved, processed and modeled by a series of manual steps. The establishment of continuously telemetered, continuously operating high-rate GNSS stations and the robust automation of all aspects of data retrieval and processing, has led to sub-second overall system latency. Within the past few years, the final challenges of

Natural Time, Nowcasting and the Physics of Earthquakes: Estimation of Seismic Risk to Global Megacities

Science.gov (United States)

Rundle, John B.; Luginbuhl, Molly; Giguere, Alexis; Turcotte, Donald L.

2018-02-01

Natural Time ("NT") refers to the concept of using small earthquake counts, for example of M > 3 events, to mark the intervals between large earthquakes, for example M > 6 events. The term was first used by Varotsos et al. (2005) and later by Holliday et al. (2006) in their studies of earthquakes. In this paper, we discuss ideas and applications arising from the use of NT to understand earthquake dynamics, in particular by use of the idea of nowcasting. Nowcasting differs from forecasting, in that the goal of nowcasting is to estimate the current state of the system, rather than the probability of a future event. Rather than focus on an individual earthquake faults, we focus on a defined local geographic region surrounding a particular location. This local region is considered to be embedded in a larger regional setting from which we accumulate the relevant statistics. We apply the nowcasting idea to the practical development of methods to estimate the current state of risk for dozens of the world's seismically exposed megacities, defined as cities having populations of over 1 million persons. We compute a ranking of these cities based on their current nowcast value, and discuss the advantages and limitations of this approach. We note explicitly that the nowcast method is not a model, in that there are no free parameters to be fit to data. Rather, the method is simply a presentation of statistical data, which the user can interpret. Among other results, we find, for example, that the current nowcast ranking of the Los Angeles region is comparable to its ranking just prior to the January 17, 1994 Northridge earthquake.

The Al Hoceima earthquake sequence of 1994, 2004 and 2016: Stress transfer and poroelasticity in the Rif and Alboran Sea region

Science.gov (United States)

Kariche, J.; Meghraoui, M.; Timoulali, Y.; Cetin, E.; Toussaint, R.

2018-01-01

The 2016 January 25 earthquake (Mw 6.3) follows in sequence from the1994 May 26 earthquake (Mw 6.0) and the 2004 February 24 earthquake (Mw 6.4) in the Rif Mountains and Alboran Sea. The earlier two seismic events which were destructive took place on inland conjugate faults, and the third event occurred on an offshore fault. These earthquake sequences occurred within a period of 22 yr at ˜25 km distance and 11-16-km depth. The three events have similar strike-slip focal mechanism solutions with NNE-SSW trending left-lateral faulting for the 1994 and 2016 events and NW-SE trending right-lateral faulting for the 2004 event. This shallow seismic sequence offers the possibility (i) to model the change in Coulomb Failure Function (ΔCFF with low μ΄ including the pore pressure change) and understand fault-rupture interaction, and (ii) to analyse the effect of pore fluid on the rupture mechanism, and infer the clock-time advance. The variation of static stress change has a direct impact on the main shock, aftershocks and related positive lobes of the 2004 earthquake rupture with a stress change increase of 0.7-1.1 bar. Similarly, the 2004 main shock and aftershocks indicate loading zones with a stress change (>0.25 bar) that includes the 2016 earthquake rupture. The tectonic loading of 19-24 nanostrain yr-1 obtained from the seismicity catalogue of Morocco is comparable to the 5.0 × 1017 N.m yr-1 seismic strain release in the Rif Mountains. The seismic sequence is apparently controlled by the poroelastic properties of the seismogenic layer that depend on the undrained and drained fluid conditions. The short interseismic period between main shocks and higher rate of aftershocks with relatively large magnitudes (4 stress-rate ranges between 461 and 582 Pa yr-1 with a ΔCFF of 0.2-1.1 bar. The computed clock-time advance reaches 239 ± 22 yr in agreement with the ˜10 yr delay between main shocks. The calculated static stress change of 0.9-1.3 bar, under pore

Comparisons of Source Characteristics between Recent Inland Crustal Earthquake Sequences inside and outside of Niigata-Kobe Tectonic Zone, Japan

Science.gov (United States)

Somei, K.; Asano, K.; Iwata, T.; Miyakoshi, K.

2012-12-01

After the 1995 Kobe earthquake, many M7-class inland earthquakes occurred in Japan. Some of those events (e.g., the 2004 Chuetsu earthquake) occurred in a tectonic zone which is characterized as a high strain rate zone by the GPS observation (Sagiya et al., 2000) or dense distribution of active faults. That belt-like zone along the coast in Japan Sea side of Tohoku and Chubu districts, and north of Kinki district, is called as the Niigata-Kobe tectonic zone (NKTZ, Sagiya et al, 2000). We investigate seismic scaling relationship for recent inland crustal earthquake sequences in Japan and compare source characteristics between events occurring inside and outside of NKTZ. We used S-wave coda part for estimating source spectra. Source spectral ratio is obtained by S-wave coda spectral ratio between the records of large and small events occurring close to each other from nation-wide strong motion network (K-NET and KiK-net) and broad-band seismic network (F-net) to remove propagation-path and site effects. We carefully examined the commonality of the decay of coda envelopes between event-pair records and modeled the observed spectral ratio by the source spectral ratio function with assuming omega-square source model for large and small events. We estimated the corner frequencies and seismic moment (ratio) from those modeled spectral ratio function. We determined Brune's stress drops of 356 events (Mw: 3.1-6.9) in ten earthquake sequences occurring in NKTZ and six sequences occurring outside of NKTZ. Most of source spectra obey omega-square source spectra. There is no obvious systematic difference between stress drops of events in NKTZ zone and others. We may conclude that the systematic tendency of seismic source scaling of the events occurred inside and outside of NKTZ does not exist and the average source scaling relationship can be effective for inland crustal earthquakes. Acknowledgements: Waveform data were provided from K-NET, KiK-net and F-net operated by

3-D Dynamic rupture simulation for the 2016 Kumamoto, Japan, earthquake sequence: Foreshocks and M6 dynamically triggered event

Science.gov (United States)

Ando, R.; Aoki, Y.; Uchide, T.; Imanishi, K.; Matsumoto, S.; Nishimura, T.

2016-12-01

A couple of interesting earthquake rupture phenomena were observed associated with the sequence of the 2016 Kumamoto, Japan, earthquake sequence. The sequence includes the April 15, 2016, Mw 7.0, mainshock, which was preceded by multiple M6-class foreshock. The mainshock mainly broke the Futagawa fault segment striking NE-SW direction extending over 50km, and it further triggered a M6-class earthquake beyond the distance more than 50km to the northeast (Uchide et al., 2016, submitted), where an active volcano is situated. Compiling the data of seismic analysis and InSAR, we presumed this dynamic triggering event occurred on an active fault known as Yufuin fault (Ando et al., 2016, JPGU general assembly). It is also reported that the coseismic slip was significantly large at a shallow portion of Futagawa Fault near Aso volcano. Since the seismogenic depth becomes significantly shallower in these two areas, we presume the geothermal anomaly play a role as well as the elasto-dynamic processes associated with the coseismic rupture. In this study, we conducted a set of fully dynamic simulations of the earthquake rupture process by assuming the inferred 3D fault geometry and the regional stress field obtained referring the stress tensor inversion. As a result, we showed that the dynamic rupture process was mainly controlled by the irregularity of the fault geometry subjected to the gently varying regional stress field. The foreshocks ruptures have been arrested at the juncture of the branch faults. We also show that the dynamic triggering of M-6 class earthquakes occurred along the Yufuin fault segment (located 50 km NE) because of the strong stress transient up to a few hundreds of kPa due to the rupture directivity effect of the M-7 event. It is also shown that the geothermal condition may lead to the susceptible condition of the dynamic triggering by considering the plastic shear zone on the down dip extension of the Yufuin segment, situated in the vicinity of an

The HayWired Earthquake Scenario—Earthquake Hazards

Science.gov (United States)

Detweiler, Shane T.; Wein, Anne M.

2017-04-24

The HayWired scenario is a hypothetical earthquake sequence that is being used to better understand hazards for the San Francisco Bay region during and after an earthquake of magnitude 7 on the Hayward Fault. The 2014 Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities calculated that there is a 33-percent likelihood of a large (magnitude 6.7 or greater) earthquake occurring on the Hayward Fault within three decades. A large Hayward Fault earthquake will produce strong ground shaking, permanent displacement of the Earth’s surface, landslides, liquefaction (soils becoming liquid-like during shaking), and subsequent fault slip, known as afterslip, and earthquakes, known as aftershocks. The most recent large earthquake on the Hayward Fault occurred on October 21, 1868, and it ruptured the southern part of the fault. The 1868 magnitude-6.8 earthquake occurred when the San Francisco Bay region had far fewer people, buildings, and infrastructure (roads, communication lines, and utilities) than it does today, yet the strong ground shaking from the earthquake still caused significant building damage and loss of life. The next large Hayward Fault earthquake is anticipated to affect thousands of structures and disrupt the lives of millions of people. Earthquake risk in the San Francisco Bay region has been greatly reduced as a result of previous concerted efforts; for example, tens of billions of dollars of investment in strengthening infrastructure was motivated in large part by the 1989 magnitude 6.9 Loma Prieta earthquake. To build on efforts to reduce earthquake risk in the San Francisco Bay region, the HayWired earthquake scenario comprehensively examines the earthquake hazards to help provide the crucial scientific information that the San Francisco Bay region can use to prepare for the next large earthquake, The HayWired Earthquake Scenario—Earthquake Hazards volume describes the strong ground shaking modeled in the scenario and the hazardous movements of

The Iquique earthquake sequence of April 2014: Bayesian modeling accounting for prediction uncertainty

Science.gov (United States)

Duputel, Zacharie; Jiang, Junle; Jolivet, Romain; Simons, Mark; Rivera, Luis; Ampuero, Jean-Paul; Riel, Bryan; Owen, Susan E; Moore, Angelyn W; Samsonov, Sergey V; Ortega Culaciati, Francisco; Minson, Sarah E.

2016-01-01

The subduction zone in northern Chile is a well-identified seismic gap that last ruptured in 1877. On 1 April 2014, this region was struck by a large earthquake following a two week long series of foreshocks. This study combines a wide range of observations, including geodetic, tsunami, and seismic data, to produce a reliable kinematic slip model of the Mw=8.1 main shock and a static slip model of the Mw=7.7 aftershock. We use a novel Bayesian modeling approach that accounts for uncertainty in the Green's functions, both static and dynamic, while avoiding nonphysical regularization. The results reveal a sharp slip zone, more compact than previously thought, located downdip of the foreshock sequence and updip of high-frequency sources inferred by back-projection analysis. Both the main shock and the Mw=7.7 aftershock did not rupture to the trench and left most of the seismic gap unbroken, leaving the possibility of a future large earthquake in the region.

Conditional Probabilities of Large Earthquake Sequences in California from the Physics-based Rupture Simulator RSQSim

Science.gov (United States)

Gilchrist, J. J.; Jordan, T. H.; Shaw, B. E.; Milner, K. R.; Richards-Dinger, K. B.; Dieterich, J. H.

2017-12-01

Within the SCEC Collaboratory for Interseismic Simulation and Modeling (CISM), we are developing physics-based forecasting models for earthquake ruptures in California. We employ the 3D boundary element code RSQSim (Rate-State Earthquake Simulator of Dieterich & Richards-Dinger, 2010) to generate synthetic catalogs with tens of millions of events that span up to a million years each. This code models rupture nucleation by rate- and state-dependent friction and Coulomb stress transfer in complex, fully interacting fault systems. The Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast Version 3 (UCERF3) fault and deformation models are used to specify the fault geometry and long-term slip rates. We have employed the Blue Waters supercomputer to generate long catalogs of simulated California seismicity from which we calculate the forecasting statistics for large events. We have performed probabilistic seismic hazard analysis with RSQSim catalogs that were calibrated with system-wide parameters and found a remarkably good agreement with UCERF3 (Milner et al., this meeting). We build on this analysis, comparing the conditional probabilities of sequences of large events from RSQSim and UCERF3. In making these comparisons, we consider the epistemic uncertainties associated with the RSQSim parameters (e.g., rate- and state-frictional parameters), as well as the effects of model-tuning (e.g., adjusting the RSQSim parameters to match UCERF3 recurrence rates). The comparisons illustrate how physics-based rupture simulators might assist forecasters in understanding the short-term hazards of large aftershocks and multi-event sequences associated with complex, multi-fault ruptures.

Spectral scaling of the aftershocks of the Tocopilla 2007 earthquake in northern Chile

Science.gov (United States)

Lancieri, M.; Madariaga, R.; Bonilla, F.

2012-04-01

We study the scaling of spectral properties of a set of 68 aftershocks of the 2007 November 14 Tocopilla (M 7.8) earthquake in northern Chile. These are all subduction events with similar reverse faulting focal mechanism that were recorded by a homogenous network of continuously recording strong motion instruments. The seismic moment and the corner frequency are obtained assuming that the aftershocks satisfy an inverse omega-square spectral decay; radiated energy is computed integrating the square velocity spectrum corrected for attenuation at high frequencies and for the finite bandwidth effect. Using a graphical approach, we test the scaling of seismic spectrum, and the scale invariance of the apparent stress drop with the earthquake size. To test whether the Tocopilla aftershocks scale with a single parameter, we introduce a non-dimensional number, ?, that should be constant if earthquakes are self-similar. For the Tocopilla aftershocks, Cr varies by a factor of 2. More interestingly, Cr for the aftershocks is close to 2, the value that is expected for events that are approximately modelled by a circular crack. Thus, in spite of obvious differences in waveforms, the aftershocks of the Tocopilla earthquake are self-similar. The main shock is different because its records contain large near-field waves. Finally, we investigate the scaling of energy release rate, Gc, with the slip. We estimated Gc from our previous estimates of the source parameters, assuming a simple circular crack model. We find that Gc values scale with the slip, and are in good agreement with those found by Abercrombie and Rice for the Northridge aftershocks.

Modeling earthquake sequences along the Manila subduction zone: Effects of three-dimensional fault geometry

Science.gov (United States)

Yu, Hongyu; Liu, Yajing; Yang, Hongfeng; Ning, Jieyuan

2018-05-01

To assess the potential of catastrophic megathrust earthquakes (MW > 8) along the Manila Trench, the eastern boundary of the South China Sea, we incorporate a 3D non-planar fault geometry in the framework of rate-state friction to simulate earthquake rupture sequences along the fault segment between 15°N-19°N of northern Luzon. Our simulation results demonstrate that the first-order fault geometry heterogeneity, the transitional-segment (possibly related to the subducting Scarborough seamount chain) connecting the steeper south segment and the flatter north segment, controls earthquake rupture behaviors. The strong along-strike curvature at the transitional-segment typically leads to partial ruptures of MW 8.3 and MW 7.8 along the southern and northern segments respectively. The entire fault occasionally ruptures in MW 8.8 events when the cumulative stress in the transitional-segment is sufficiently high to overcome the geometrical inhibition. Fault shear stress evolution, represented by the S-ratio, is clearly modulated by the width of seismogenic zone (W). At a constant plate convergence rate, a larger W indicates on average lower interseismic stress loading rate and longer rupture recurrence period, and could slow down or sometimes stop ruptures that initiated from a narrower portion. Moreover, the modeled interseismic slip rate before whole-fault rupture events is comparable with the coupling state that was inferred from the interplate seismicity distribution, suggesting the Manila trench could potentially rupture in a M8+ earthquake.

A Unique Sequence of Financial Accounting Courses Featuring Team Teaching, Linked Courses, Challenging Assignments, and Instruments for Evaluation and Assessment

Science.gov (United States)

Lundblad, Heidemarie; Wilson, Barbara A.

2008-01-01

The Department of Accounting at California State University Northridge (CSUN) has developed a unique sequence of courses designed to ensure that accounting students are trained not only in technical accounting, but also acquire critical thinking, research and communication skills. The courses have proven effective and have embedded assessment…

Characterization of earthquake-induced ground motion from the L'Aquila seismic sequence of 2009, Italy

Science.gov (United States)

Malagnini, Luca; Akinci, Aybige; Mayeda, Kevin; Munafo', Irene; Herrmann, Robert B.; Mercuri, Alessia

2011-01-01

Based only on weak-motion data, we carried out a combined study on region-specific source scaling and crustal attenuation in the Central Apennines (Italy). Our goal was to obtain a reappraisal of the existing predictive relationships for the ground motion, and to test them against the strong-motion data [peak ground acceleration (PGA), peak ground velocity (PGV) and spectral acceleration (SA)] gathered during the Mw 6.15 L'Aquila earthquake (2009 April 6, 01:32 UTC). The L'Aquila main shock was not part of the predictive study, and the validation test was an extrapolation to one magnitude unit above the largest earthquake of the calibration data set. The regional attenuation was determined through a set of regressions on a data set of 12 777 high-quality, high-gain waveforms with excellent S/N ratios (4259 vertical and 8518 horizontal time histories). Seismograms were selected from the recordings of 170 foreshocks and aftershocks of the sequence (the complete set of all earthquakes with ML≥ 3.0, from 2008 October 1 to 2010 May 10). All waveforms were downloaded from the ISIDe web page (), a web site maintained by the Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV). Weak-motion data were used to obtain a moment tensor solution, as well as a coda-based moment-rate source spectrum, for each one of the 170 events of the L'Aquila sequence (2.8 ≤Mw≤ 6.15). Source spectra were used to verify the good agreement with the source scaling of the Colfiorito seismic sequence of 1997-1998 recently described by Malagnini (2008). Finally, results on source excitation and crustal attenuation were used to produce the absolute site terms for the 23 stations located within ˜80 km of the epicentral area. The complete set of spectral corrections (crustal attenuation and absolute site effects) was used to implement a fast and accurate tool for the automatic computation of moment magnitudes in the Central Apennines.

Fixed recurrence and slip models better predict earthquake behavior than the time- and slip-predictable models 1: repeating earthquakes

Science.gov (United States)

Rubinstein, Justin L.; Ellsworth, William L.; Chen, Kate Huihsuan; Uchida, Naoki

2012-01-01

The behavior of individual events in repeating earthquake sequences in California, Taiwan and Japan is better predicted by a model with fixed inter-event time or fixed slip than it is by the time- and slip-predictable models for earthquake occurrence. Given that repeating earthquakes are highly regular in both inter-event time and seismic moment, the time- and slip-predictable models seem ideally suited to explain their behavior. Taken together with evidence from the companion manuscript that shows similar results for laboratory experiments we conclude that the short-term predictions of the time- and slip-predictable models should be rejected in favor of earthquake models that assume either fixed slip or fixed recurrence interval. This implies that the elastic rebound model underlying the time- and slip-predictable models offers no additional value in describing earthquake behavior in an event-to-event sense, but its value in a long-term sense cannot be determined. These models likely fail because they rely on assumptions that oversimplify the earthquake cycle. We note that the time and slip of these events is predicted quite well by fixed slip and fixed recurrence models, so in some sense they are time- and slip-predictable. While fixed recurrence and slip models better predict repeating earthquake behavior than the time- and slip-predictable models, we observe a correlation between slip and the preceding recurrence time for many repeating earthquake sequences in Parkfield, California. This correlation is not found in other regions, and the sequences with the correlative slip-predictable behavior are not distinguishable from nearby earthquake sequences that do not exhibit this behavior.

January 1994 Northridge, USA Images

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — At 4:31 am local time (12:31 GMT) on Monday, January 17, 1994, a magnitude 6.8 earthquake twenty miles west northwest of downtown Los Angeles awoke nearly everyone...

Do earthquakes exhibit self-organized criticality?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yang Xiaosong; Ma Jin; Du Shuming

2004-01-01

If earthquakes are phenomena of self-organized criticality (SOC), statistical characteristics of the earthquake time series should be invariant after the sequence of events in an earthquake catalog are randomly rearranged. In this Letter we argue that earthquakes are unlikely phenomena of SOC because our analysis of the Southern California Earthquake Catalog shows that the first-return-time probability P M (T) is apparently changed after the time series is rearranged. This suggests that the SOC theory should not be used to oppose the efforts of earthquake prediction

Earthquake statistics, spatiotemporal distribution of foci and source mechanisms - a key to understanding of the West Bohemia/Vogtland earthquake swarms

Science.gov (United States)

Horálek, Josef; Čermáková, Hana; Fischer, Tomáš

2016-04-01

Earthquake swarms are sequences of numerous events closely clustered in space and time and do not have a single dominant mainshock. A few of the largest events in a swarm reach similar magnitudes and usually occur throughout the course of the earthquake sequence. These attributes differentiate earthquake swarms from ordinary mainshock-aftershock sequences. Earthquake swarms occur worldwide, in diverse geological units. The swarms typically accompany volcanic activity at margins of the tectonic plate but also occur in intracontinental areas where strain from tectonic-plate movement is small. The origin of earthquake swarms is still unclear. The swarms typically occur at the plate margins but also in intracontinental areas. West Bohemia-Vogtland represents one of the most active intraplate earthquake-swarm areas in Europe. It is characterised by a frequent reoccurrence of ML 2.8 swarm events are located in a few dense clusters which implies step by step rupturing of one or a few asperities during the individual swarms. The source mechanism patters (moment-tensor description, MT) of the individual swarms indicate several families of the mechanisms, which fit well geometry of respective fault segments. MTs of the most events signify pure shears except for the 1997-swarm events the MTs of which indicates a combine sources including both shear and tensile components. The origin of earthquake swarms is still unclear. Nevertheless, we infer that the individual earthquake swarms in West Bohemia-Vogtland are mixture of the mainshock-aftershock sequences which correspond to step by step rupturing of one or a few asperities. The swarms occur on short fault segments with heterogeneous stress and strength, which may be affected by pressurized crustal fluids reducing normal component of the tectonic stress and lower friction. This way critically loaded faults are brought to failure and the swarm activity is driven by the differential local stress.

Characterizing spatial heterogeneity based on the b-value and fractal analyses of the 2015 Nepal earthquake sequence

Science.gov (United States)

Nampally, Subhadra; Padhy, Simanchal; Dimri, Vijay P.

2018-01-01

The nature of spatial distribution of heterogeneities in the source area of the 2015 Nepal earthquake is characterized based on the seismic b-value and fractal analysis of its aftershocks. The earthquake size distribution of aftershocks gives a b-value of 1.11 ± 0.08, possibly representing the highly heterogeneous and low stress state of the region. The aftershocks exhibit a fractal structure characterized by a spectrum of generalized dimensions, Dq varying from D2 = 1.66 to D22 = 0.11. The existence of a fractal structure suggests that the spatial distribution of aftershocks is not a random phenomenon, but it self-organizes into a critical state, exhibiting a scale-independent structure governed by a power-law scaling, where a small perturbation in stress is sufficient enough to trigger aftershocks. In order to obtain the bias in fractal dimensions resulting from finite data size, we compared the multifractal spectrum for the real data and random simulations. On comparison, we found that the lower limit of bias in D2 is 0.44. The similarity in their multifractal spectra suggests the lack of long-range correlation in the data, with an only weakly multifractal or a monofractal with a single correlation dimension D2 characterizing the data. The minimum number of events required for a multifractal process with an acceptable error is discussed. We also tested for a possible correlation between changes in D2 and energy released during the earthquakes. The values of D2 rise during the two largest earthquakes (M > 7.0) in the sequence. The b- and D2 values are related by D2 = 1.45 b that corresponds to the intermediate to large earthquakes. Our results provide useful constraints on the spatial distribution of b- and D2-values, which are useful for seismic hazard assessment in the aftershock area of a large earthquake.

Earthquake simulations with time-dependent nucleation and long-range interactions

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

J. H. Dieterich

1995-01-01

Full Text Available A model for rapid simulation of earthquake sequences is introduced which incorporates long-range elastic interactions among fault elements and time-dependent earthquake nucleation inferred from experimentally derived rate- and state-dependent fault constitutive properties. The model consists of a planar two-dimensional fault surface which is periodic in both the x- and y-directions. Elastic interactions among fault elements are represented by an array of elastic dislocations. Approximate solutions for earthquake nucleation and dynamics of earthquake slip are introduced which permit computations to proceed in steps that are determined by the transitions from one sliding state to the next. The transition-driven time stepping and avoidance of systems of simultaneous equations permit rapid simulation of large sequences of earthquake events on computers of modest capacity, while preserving characteristics of the nucleation and rupture propagation processes evident in more detailed models. Earthquakes simulated with this model reproduce many of the observed spatial and temporal characteristics of clustering phenomena including foreshock and aftershock sequences. Clustering arises because the time dependence of the nucleation process is highly sensitive to stress perturbations caused by nearby earthquakes. Rate of earthquake activity following a prior earthquake decays according to Omori's aftershock decay law and falls off with distance.

Seismic Performance and Modeling of Reinforced Concrete and Post-Tensioned Precast Concrete Shear Walls

OpenAIRE

Tanyeri, Ahmet Can

2014-01-01

Past earthquakes have shown examples of unsatisfactory performance of buildings using reinforced concrete structural walls as the primary lateral-force-resisting system. In the 1994 Northridge earthquake, examples can be found where walls possessed too much overstrength, leading to unintended failure of collectors and floor systems, including precast and post-tensioned construction. In the 2010 Maule Chile earthquake, many structural wall buildings sustained severe damage. Although Chilean de...

Fault healing and earthquake spectra from stick slip sequences in the laboratory and on active faults

Science.gov (United States)

McLaskey, G. C.; Glaser, S. D.; Thomas, A.; Burgmann, R.

2011-12-01

Repeating earthquake sequences (RES) are thought to occur on isolated patches of a fault that fail in repeated stick-slip fashion. RES enable researchers to study the effect of variations in earthquake recurrence time and the relationship between fault healing and earthquake generation. Fault healing is thought to be the physical process responsible for the 'state' variable in widely used rate- and state-dependent friction equations. We analyze RES created in laboratory stick slip experiments on a direct shear apparatus instrumented with an array of very high frequency (1KHz - 1MHz) displacement sensors. Tests are conducted on the model material polymethylmethacrylate (PMMA). While frictional properties of this glassy polymer can be characterized with the rate- and state- dependent friction laws, the rate of healing in PMMA is higher than room temperature rock. Our experiments show that in addition to a modest increase in fault strength and stress drop with increasing healing time, there are distinct spectral changes in the recorded laboratory earthquakes. Using the impact of a tiny sphere on the surface of the test specimen as a known source calibration function, we are able to remove the instrument and apparatus response from recorded signals so that the source spectrum of the laboratory earthquakes can be accurately estimated. The rupture of a fault that was allowed to heal produces a laboratory earthquake with increased high frequency content compared to one produced by a fault which has had less time to heal. These laboratory results are supported by observations of RES on the Calaveras and San Andreas faults, which show similar spectral changes when recurrence time is perturbed by a nearby large earthquake. Healing is typically attributed to a creep-like relaxation of the material which causes the true area of contact of interacting asperity populations to increase with time in a quasi-logarithmic way. The increase in high frequency seismicity shown here

What Can Sounds Tell Us About Earthquake Interactions?

Science.gov (United States)

Aiken, C.; Peng, Z.

2012-12-01

It is important not only for seismologists but also for educators to effectively convey information about earthquakes and the influences earthquakes can have on each other. Recent studies using auditory display [e.g. Kilb et al., 2012; Peng et al. 2012] have depicted catastrophic earthquakes and the effects large earthquakes can have on other parts of the world. Auditory display of earthquakes, which combines static images with time-compressed sound of recorded seismic data, is a new approach to disseminating information to a general audience about earthquakes and earthquake interactions. Earthquake interactions are influential to understanding the underlying physics of earthquakes and other seismic phenomena such as tremors in addition to their source characteristics (e.g. frequency contents, amplitudes). Earthquake interactions can include, for example, a large, shallow earthquake followed by increased seismicity around the mainshock rupture (i.e. aftershocks) or even a large earthquake triggering earthquakes or tremors several hundreds to thousands of kilometers away [Hill and Prejean, 2007; Peng and Gomberg, 2010]. We use standard tools like MATLAB, QuickTime Pro, and Python to produce animations that illustrate earthquake interactions. Our efforts are focused on producing animations that depict cross-section (side) views of tremors triggered along the San Andreas Fault by distant earthquakes, as well as map (bird's eye) views of mainshock-aftershock sequences such as the 2011/08/23 Mw5.8 Virginia earthquake sequence. These examples of earthquake interactions include sonifying earthquake and tremor catalogs as musical notes (e.g. piano keys) as well as audifying seismic data using time-compression. Our overall goal is to use auditory display to invigorate a general interest in earthquake seismology that leads to the understanding of how earthquakes occur, how earthquakes influence one another as well as tremors, and what the musical properties of these

Memory effect in M ≥ 7 earthquakes of Taiwan

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Jeen-Hwa

2014-07-01

The M ≥ 7 earthquakes that occurred in the Taiwan region during 1906-2006 are taken to study the possibility of memory effect existing in the sequence of those large earthquakes. Those events are all mainshocks. The fluctuation analysis technique is applied to analyze two sequences in terms of earthquake magnitude and inter-event time represented in the natural time domain. For both magnitude and inter-event time, the calculations are made for three data sets, i.e., the original order data, the reverse-order data, and that of the mean values. Calculated results show that the exponents of scaling law of fluctuation versus window length are less than 0.5 for the sequences of both magnitude and inter-event time data. In addition, the phase portraits of two sequent magnitudes and two sequent inter-event times are also applied to explore if large (or small) earthquakes are followed by large (or small) events. Results lead to a negative answer. Together with all types of information in study, we make a conclusion that the earthquake sequence in study is short-term corrected and thus the short-term memory effect would be operative.

Evaluating spatial and temporal relationships between an earthquake cluster near Entiat, central Washington, and the large December 1872 Entiat earthquake

Science.gov (United States)

Brocher, Thomas M.; Blakely, Richard J.; Sherrod, Brian

2017-01-01

We investigate spatial and temporal relations between an ongoing and prolific seismicity cluster in central Washington, near Entiat, and the 14 December 1872 Entiat earthquake, the largest historic crustal earthquake in Washington. A fault scarp produced by the 1872 earthquake lies within the Entiat cluster; the locations and areas of both the cluster and the estimated 1872 rupture surface are comparable. Seismic intensities and the 1–2 m of coseismic displacement suggest a magnitude range between 6.5 and 7.0 for the 1872 earthquake. Aftershock forecast models for (1) the first several hours following the 1872 earthquake, (2) the largest felt earthquakes from 1900 to 1974, and (3) the seismicity within the Entiat cluster from 1976 through 2016 are also consistent with this magnitude range. Based on this aftershock modeling, most of the current seismicity in the Entiat cluster could represent aftershocks of the 1872 earthquake. Other earthquakes, especially those with long recurrence intervals, have long‐lived aftershock sequences, including the Mw">MwMw 7.5 1891 Nobi earthquake in Japan, with aftershocks continuing 100 yrs after the mainshock. Although we do not rule out ongoing tectonic deformation in this region, a long‐lived aftershock sequence can account for these observations.

The East Aegean Sea strong earthquake sequence of October–November 2005: lessons learned for earthquake prediction from foreshocks

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

G. A. Papadopoulos

2006-01-01

Full Text Available The seismic sequence of October–November 2005 in the Samos area, East Aegean Sea, was studied with the aim to show how it is possible to establish criteria for (a the rapid recognition of both the ongoing foreshock activity and the mainshock, and (b the rapid discrimination between the foreshock and aftershock phases of activity. It has been shown that before the mainshock of 20 October 2005, foreshock activity is not recognizable in the standard earthquake catalogue. However, a detailed examination of the records in the SMG station, which is the closest to the activated area, revealed that hundreds of small shocks not listed in the standard catalogue were recorded in the time interval from 12 October 2005 up to 21 November 2005. The production of reliable relations between seismic signal duration and duration magnitude for earthquakes included in the standard catalogue, made it possible to use signal durations in SMG records and to determine duration magnitudes for 2054 small shocks not included in the standard catalogue. In this way a new catalogue with magnitude determination for 3027 events was obtained while the standard catalogue contains 1025 events. At least 55 of them occurred from 12 October 2005 up to the occurrence of the two strong foreshocks of 17 October 2005. This implies that foreshock activity developed a few days before the strong shocks of 17 October 2005 but it escaped recognition by the routine procedure of seismic analysis. The onset of the foreshock phase of activity is recognizable by the significant increase of the mean seismicity rate which increased exponentially with time. According to the least-squares approach the b-value of the magnitude-frequency relation dropped significantly during the foreshock activity with respect to the b-value prevailing in the declustered background seismicity. However, the maximum likelihood approach does not indicate such a drop of b. The b-value found for the aftershocks that

Post-earthquake building safety inspection: Lessons from the Canterbury, New Zealand, earthquakes

Science.gov (United States)

Marshall, J.; Jaiswal, Kishor; Gould, N.; Turner, F.; Lizundia, B.; Barnes, J.

2013-01-01

The authors discuss some of the unique aspects and lessons of the New Zealand post-earthquake building safety inspection program that was implemented following the Canterbury earthquake sequence of 2010–2011. The post-event safety assessment program was one of the largest and longest programs undertaken in recent times anywhere in the world. The effort engaged hundreds of engineering professionals throughout the country, and also sought expertise from outside, to perform post-earthquake structural safety inspections of more than 100,000 buildings in the city of Christchurch and the surrounding suburbs. While the building safety inspection procedure implemented was analogous to the ATC 20 program in the United States, many modifications were proposed and implemented in order to assess the large number of buildings that were subjected to strong and variable shaking during a period of two years. This note discusses some of the key aspects of the post-earthquake building safety inspection program and summarizes important lessons that can improve future earthquake response.

Extreme value statistics and thermodynamics of earthquakes. Large earthquakes

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lavenda, B. [Camerino Univ., Camerino, MC (Italy); Cipollone, E. [ENEA, Centro Ricerche Casaccia, S. Maria di Galeria, RM (Italy). National Centre for Research on Thermodynamics

2000-06-01

A compound Poisson process is used to derive a new shape parameter which can be used to discriminate between large earthquakes and aftershocks sequences. Sample exceedance distributions of large earthquakes are fitted to the Pareto tail and the actual distribution of the maximum to the Frechet distribution, while the sample distribution of aftershocks are fitted to a Beta distribution and the distribution of the minimum to the Weibull distribution for the smallest value. The transition between initial sample distributions and asymptotic extreme value distributions show that self-similar power laws are transformed into non scaling exponential distributions so that neither self-similarity nor the Gutenberg-Richter law can be considered universal. The energy-magnitude transformation converts the Frechet distribution into the Gumbel distribution, originally proposed by Epstein and Lomnitz, and not the Gompertz distribution as in the Lomnitz-Adler and Lomnitz generalization of the Gutenberg-Richter law. Numerical comparison is made with the Lomnitz-Adler and Lomnitz analysis using the same catalogue of Chinese earthquakes. An analogy is drawn between large earthquakes and high energy particle physics. A generalized equation of state is used to transform the Gamma density into the order-statistic Frechet distribution. Earthquake temperature and volume are determined as functions of the energy. Large insurance claims based on the Pareto distribution, which does not have a right endpoint, show why there cannot be a maximum earthquake energy.

Imaging 2015 Mw 7.8 Gorkha Earthquake and Its Aftershock Sequence Combining Multiple Calibrated Global Seismic Arrays

Science.gov (United States)

LI, B.; Ghosh, A.

2016-12-01

The 2015 Mw 7.8 Gorkha earthquake provides a good opportunity to study the tectonics and earthquake hazards in the Himalayas, one of the most seismically active plate boundaries. Details of the seismicity patterns and associated structures in the Himalayas are poorly understood mainly due to limited instrumentation. Here, we apply a back-projection method to study the mainshock rupture and the following aftershock sequence using four large aperture global seismic arrays. All the arrays show eastward rupture propagation of about 130 km and reveal similar evolution of seismic energy radiation, with strong high-frequency energy burst about 50 km north of Kathmandu. Each single array, however, is typically limited by large azimuthal gap, low resolution, and artifacts due to unmodeled velocity structures. Therefore, we use a self-consistent empirical calibration method to combine four different arrays to image the Gorkha event. It greatly improves the resolution, can better track rupture and reveal details that cannot be resolved by any individual array. In addition, we also use the same arrays at teleseismic distances and apply a back-projection technique to detect and locate the aftershocks immediately following the Gorkha earthquake. We detect about 2.5 times the aftershocks recorded by the Advance National Seismic System comprehensive earthquake catalog during the 19 days following the mainshock. The aftershocks detected by the arrays show an east-west trend in general, with majority of the aftershocks located at the eastern part of the rupture patch and surrounding the rupture zone of the largest Mw 7.3 aftershock. Overall spatiotemporal aftershock pattern agrees well with global catalog, with our catalog showing more details relative to the standard global catalog. The improved aftershock catalog enables us to better study the aftershock dynamics, stress evolution in this region. Moreover, rapid and better imaging of aftershock distribution may aid rapid response

Foreshocks and aftershocks locations of the 2014 Pisagua, N. Chile earthquake: history of a megathrust earthquake nucleation

Science.gov (United States)

Fuenzalida Velasco, Amaya; Rietbrock, Andreas; Tavera, Hernando; Ryder, Isabelle; Ruiz, Sergio; Thomas, Reece; De Angelis, Silvio; Bondoux, Francis

2015-04-01

The April 2014 Mw 8.1 Pisagua earthquake occurred in the Northern Chile seismic gap: a region of the South American subduction zone lying between Arica city and the Mejillones Peninsula. It is believed that this part of the subduction zone has not experienced a large earthquake since 1877. Thanks to the identification of this seismic gap, the north of Chile was well instrumented before the Pisagua earthquake, including the Integrated Plate boundary Observatory Chile (IPOC) network and the Chilean local network installed by the Centro Sismologico Nacional (CSN). These instruments were able to record the full foreshock and aftershock sequences, allowing a unique opportunity to study the nucleation process of large megathrust earthquakes. To improve azimuthal coverage of the Pisagua seismic sequence, after the earthquake, in collaboration with the Instituto Geofisico del Peru (IGP) we installed a temporary seismic network in south of Peru. The network comprised 12 short-period stations located in the coastal area between Moquegua and Tacna and they were operative from 1st May 2014. We also installed three stations on the slopes of the Ticsiani volcano to monitor any possible change in volcanic activity following the Pisagua earthquake. In this work we analysed the continuous seismic data recorded by CSN and IPOC networks from 1 March to 30 June to obtain the catalogue of the sequence, including foreshocks and aftershocks. Using an automatic algorithm based in STA/LTA we obtained the picks for P and S waves. Association in time and space defined the events and computed an initial location using Hypo71 and the 1D local velocity model. More than 11,000 events were identified with this method for the whole period, but we selected the best resolved events that include more than 7 observed arrivals with at least 2 S picks of them, to relocate these events using NonLinLoc software. For the main events of the sequence we carefully estimate event locations and we obtained

Dynamics of delayed triggering in multi-segmented foreshock sequence: Evidence from the 2016 Kumamoto, Japan, earthquake

Science.gov (United States)

Arai, H.; Ando, R.; Aoki, Y.

2017-12-01

The 2016 Kumamoto earthquake sequence hit the SW Japan, from April 14th to 16th and its sequence includes two M6-class foreshocks and the main shock (Mw 7.0). Importantly, the detailed surface displacement caused solely by the two foreshocks could be captured by a SAR observation isolated from the mainshock deformation. The foreshocks ruptured the previously mapped Hinagu fault and their hypocentral locations and the aftershock distribution indicates the involvement of two different subparallel faults. Therefore we assumed that the 1st and the 2nd foreshocks respectively ruptured each of the subparallel faults (faults A and B). One of the interesting points of this earthquake is that the two major foreshocks had a temporal gap of 2.5 hours even though the fault A and B are quite close by each other. This suggests that the stress perturbation due to the 1st foreshock is not large enough to trigger the 2nd one right away but that it's large enough to bring about the following earthquake after a delay time.We aim to reproduce the foreshock sequence such as rupture jumping over the subparallel faults by using dynamic rupture simulations. We employed a spatiotemporal-boundary integral equation method accelerated by the Fast Domain Partitioning Method (Ando, 2016, GJI) since this method allows us to construct a complex fault geometry in 3D media. Our model has two faults and a free ground surface. We conducted rupture simulation with various sets of parameters to identify the optimal condition describing the observation.Our simulation results are roughly categorized into 3 cases with regard to the criticality for the rupture jumping. The case 1 (supercritical case) shows the fault A and B ruptured consecutively without any temporal gap. In the case 2 (nearly critical), the rupture on the fault B started with a temporal gap after the fault A finished rupturing, which is what we expected as a reproduction. In the case 3 (subcritical), only the fault A ruptured and its

Surface deformation associated with the November 23, 1977, Caucete, Argentina, earthquake sequence

Science.gov (United States)

Kadinsky-Cade, K.; Reilinger, R.; Isacks, B.

1985-01-01

The 1977 Caucete (San Juan) earthquake considered in the present paper occurred near the Sierra Pie de Palo in the Sierras Pampeanas tectonic province of western Argentina. In the study reported, coseismic surface deformation is combined with seismic observations (main shock and aftershocks, both teleseismic and local data) to place constraints on the geometry and slip of the main fault responsible for the 1977 earthquake. The implications of the 1977 event for long-term crustal shortening and earthquake recurrence rates in this region are also discussed. It is concluded that the 1977 Caucete earthquake was accompanied by more than 1 m of vertical uplift.

Changes in state of stress on the southern san andreas fault resulting from the california earthquake sequence of april to june 1992.

Science.gov (United States)

Jaumé, S C; Sykes, L R

1992-11-20

The April to June 1992 Landers earthquake sequence in southern California modified the state of stress along nearby segments of the San Andreas fault, causing a 50-kilometer segment of the fault to move significantly closer to failure where it passes through a compressional bend near San Gorgonio Pass. The decrease in compressive normal stress may also have reduced fluid pressures along that fault segment. As pressures are reequilibrated by diffusion, that fault segment should move closer to failure with time. That fault segment and another to the southeast probably have not ruptured in a great earthquake in about 300 years.

Short- and Long-Term Earthquake Forecasts Based on Statistical Models

Science.gov (United States)

Console, Rodolfo; Taroni, Matteo; Murru, Maura; Falcone, Giuseppe; Marzocchi, Warner

2017-04-01

The epidemic-type aftershock sequences (ETAS) models have been experimentally used to forecast the space-time earthquake occurrence rate during the sequence that followed the 2009 L'Aquila earthquake and for the 2012 Emilia earthquake sequence. These forecasts represented the two first pioneering attempts to check the feasibility of providing operational earthquake forecasting (OEF) in Italy. After the 2009 L'Aquila earthquake the Italian Department of Civil Protection nominated an International Commission on Earthquake Forecasting (ICEF) for the development of the first official OEF in Italy that was implemented for testing purposes by the newly established "Centro di Pericolosità Sismica" (CPS, the seismic Hazard Center) at the Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV). According to the ICEF guidelines, the system is open, transparent, reproducible and testable. The scientific information delivered by OEF-Italy is shaped in different formats according to the interested stakeholders, such as scientists, national and regional authorities, and the general public. The communication to people is certainly the most challenging issue, and careful pilot tests are necessary to check the effectiveness of the communication strategy, before opening the information to the public. With regard to long-term time-dependent earthquake forecast, the application of a newly developed simulation algorithm to Calabria region provided typical features in time, space and magnitude behaviour of the seismicity, which can be compared with those of the real observations. These features include long-term pseudo-periodicity and clustering of strong earthquakes, and a realistic earthquake magnitude distribution departing from the Gutenberg-Richter distribution in the moderate and higher magnitude range.

Natural Time and Nowcasting Earthquakes: Are Large Global Earthquakes Temporally Clustered?

Science.gov (United States)

Luginbuhl, Molly; Rundle, John B.; Turcotte, Donald L.

2018-02-01

The objective of this paper is to analyze the temporal clustering of large global earthquakes with respect to natural time, or interevent count, as opposed to regular clock time. To do this, we use two techniques: (1) nowcasting, a new method of statistically classifying seismicity and seismic risk, and (2) time series analysis of interevent counts. We chose the sequences of M_{λ } ≥ 7.0 and M_{λ } ≥ 8.0 earthquakes from the global centroid moment tensor (CMT) catalog from 2004 to 2016 for analysis. A significant number of these earthquakes will be aftershocks of the largest events, but no satisfactory method of declustering the aftershocks in clock time is available. A major advantage of using natural time is that it eliminates the need for declustering aftershocks. The event count we utilize is the number of small earthquakes that occur between large earthquakes. The small earthquake magnitude is chosen to be as small as possible, such that the catalog is still complete based on the Gutenberg-Richter statistics. For the CMT catalog, starting in 2004, we found the completeness magnitude to be M_{σ } ≥ 5.1. For the nowcasting method, the cumulative probability distribution of these interevent counts is obtained. We quantify the distribution using the exponent, β, of the best fitting Weibull distribution; β = 1 for a random (exponential) distribution. We considered 197 earthquakes with M_{λ } ≥ 7.0 and found β = 0.83 ± 0.08. We considered 15 earthquakes with M_{λ } ≥ 8.0, but this number was considered too small to generate a meaningful distribution. For comparison, we generated synthetic catalogs of earthquakes that occur randomly with the Gutenberg-Richter frequency-magnitude statistics. We considered a synthetic catalog of 1.97 × 10^5 M_{λ } ≥ 7.0 earthquakes and found β = 0.99 ± 0.01. The random catalog converted to natural time was also random. We then generated 1.5 × 10^4 synthetic catalogs with 197 M_{λ } ≥ 7.0 in each catalog and

The 1995 forum on appropriate criteria and methods for seismic design of nuclear piping

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Slagis, G.C.

1996-01-01

A record of the 1995 Forum on Appropriate Criteria and Methods for Seismic Design of Nuclear Piping is provided. The focus of the forum was the earthquake experience data base and whether the data base demonstrates that seismic inertia loads will not cause failure in ductile piping systems. This was a follow-up to the 1994 Forum when the use of earthquake experience data, including the recent Northridge earthquake, to justify a design-by-rule method was explored. Two possible topics for the next forum were identified--inspection after an earthquake and design for safe-shutdown earthquake only

Seismic hazard map of the western hemisphere

OpenAIRE

Shedlock, K. M.; Tanner, J. G.

1999-01-01

Vulnerability to natural disasters increases with urbanization and development of associated support systems (reservoirs, power plants, etc.). Catastrophic earthquakes account for 60% of worldwide casualties associated with natural disasters. Economic damage from earthquakes is increasing, even in technologically advanced countries with some level of seismic zonation, as shown by the 1989 Loma Prieta, CA ($ 6 billion), 1994 Northridge, CA ($ 25 billion), and 1995 Kobe, Japan (> $ 100 billi...

The 2016 Kumamoto Earthquakes: Cascading Geological Hazards and Compounding Risks

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Katsuichiro Goda

2016-08-01

Full Text Available A sequence of two strike-slip earthquakes occurred on 14 and 16 April 2016 in the intraplate region of Kyushu Island, Japan, apart from subduction zones, and caused significant damage and disruption to the Kumamoto region. The analyses of regional seismic catalog and available strong motion recordings reveal striking characteristics of the events, such as migrating seismicity, earthquake surface rupture, and major foreshock-mainshock earthquake sequences. To gain valuable lessons from the events, a UK Earthquake Engineering Field Investigation Team (EEFIT was dispatched to Kumamoto, and earthquake damage surveys were conducted to relate observed earthquake characteristics to building and infrastructure damage caused by the earthquakes. The lessons learnt from the reconnaissance mission have important implications on current seismic design practice regarding the required seismic resistance of structures under multiple shocks and the seismic design of infrastructure subject to large ground deformation. The observations also highlight the consequences of cascading geological hazards on community resilience. To share the gathered damage data widely, geo-tagged photos are organized using Google Earth and the kmz file is made publicly available.

The Manchester earthquake swarm of October 2002

Science.gov (United States)

Baptie, B.; Ottemoeller, L.

2003-04-01

An earthquake sequence started in the Greater Manchester area of the United Kingdom on October 19, 2002. This has continued to the time of writing and has consisted of more than 100 discrete earthquakes. Three temporary seismograph stations were installed to supplement existing permanent stations and to better understand the relationship between the seismicity and local geology. Due to the urban location, these were experienced by a large number of people. The largest event on October 21 had a magnitude ML 3.9. The activity appears to be an earthquake swarm, since there is no clear distinction between a main shock and aftershocks. However, most of the energy during the sequence was actually released in two earthquakes separated by a few seconds in time, on October 21 at 11:42. Other examples of swarm activity in the UK include Comrie (1788-1801, 1839-46), Glenalmond (1970-72), Doune (1997) and Blackford (1997-98, 2000-01) in central Scotland, Constantine (1981, 1986, 1992-4) in Cornwall, and Johnstonbridge (mid1980s) and Dumfries (1991,1999). The clustering of these events in time and space does suggest that there is a causal relationship between the events of the sequence. Joint hypocenter determination was used to simultaneously locate the swarm earthquakes, determine station corrections and improve the relative locations. It seems likely that all events in the sequence originate from a relatively small source volume. This is supported by the similarities in source mechanism and waveform signals between the various events. Focal depths were found to be very shallow and of the order of about 2-3 km. Source mechanisms determined for the largest of the events show strike-slip solutions along either northeast-southwest or northwest-southeast striking fault planes. The surface expression of faults in the epicentral area is generally northwest-southeast, suggesting that this is the more likely fault plane.

The 2013 Crete (Hellenic Arc) Earthquake Sequence

Science.gov (United States)

Karakostas, V. G.; Papadimitriou, E. E.; Vallianatos, F.

2014-12-01

The western Hellenic Arc is a well known place of active interplate deformation, where the convergence motion vector is perpendicular to the subduction front. On 12 October 2013 this area was hit by a strong (Mw=6.7) earthquake, occurred on a thrust fault onto the coupled part of the overriding and descending plates, with the compression axis being oriented in the direction of plate convergence. This was the first strong (M>6.0) event to have occurred onto this segment of the descending slab, which has accommodated the largest (M8.3) known earthquake in the Mediterranean area, and to be recorded by the Hellenic Unified Seismological Network (HUSN) that has been considerably improved in the last five years. The first 2-days relocated seismicity shows activation of the upper part of the descending slab, downdip of the plate interface and forming a relatively narrow aftershock area on map view. The less densely visited by aftershocks area, where the main shock is also encompassed, is considered as the high-slip area along the downdip portion of the subducting plane. Dense concentration of the intraslab aftershocks are probably due to the increase of static stress generated by the main shock. A spectacular feature of the aftershock activity concerns the lateral extension of the slipped area, which appears very sharply defined. This provides evidence on localized coupling and aseismically creeping areas, explaining the low coupling ratio in the Hellenic Arc, as it derives from comparison between relative plate motion and seismic energy release. Elucidating the issue of how far the associated large-slip zone might be extended along the plate interface during the main rupture is crucial in assessing future earthquake hazards from subduction events in the study area. This research has been co-funded by the European Union (European Social Fund) and Greek national resources under the framework of the "THALES Program: SEISMO FEAR HELLARC" project.

Sun, Moon and Earthquakes

Science.gov (United States)

Kolvankar, V. G.

2013-12-01

During a study conducted to find the effect of Earth tides on the occurrence of earthquakes, for small areas [typically 1000km X1000km] of high-seismicity regions, it was noticed that the Sun's position in terms of universal time [GMT] shows links to the sum of EMD [longitude of earthquake location - longitude of Moon's foot print on earth] and SEM [Sun-Earth-Moon angle]. This paper provides the details of this relationship after studying earthquake data for over forty high-seismicity regions of the world. It was found that over 98% of the earthquakes for these different regions, examined for the period 1973-2008, show a direct relationship between the Sun's position [GMT] and [EMD+SEM]. As the time changes from 00-24 hours, the factor [EMD+SEM] changes through 360 degree, and plotting these two variables for earthquakes from different small regions reveals a simple 45 degree straight-line relationship between them. This relationship was tested for all earthquakes and earthquake sequences for magnitude 2.0 and above. This study conclusively proves how Sun and the Moon govern all earthquakes. Fig. 12 [A+B]. The left-hand figure provides a 24-hour plot for forty consecutive days including the main event (00:58:23 on 26.12.2004, Lat.+3.30, Long+95.980, Mb 9.0, EQ count 376). The right-hand figure provides an earthquake plot for (EMD+SEM) vs GMT timings for the same data. All the 376 events including the main event faithfully follow the straight-line curve.

Possibility of the real-time dynamic strain field monitoring deduced from GNSS data: case study of the 2016 Kumamoto earthquake sequence

Science.gov (United States)

Ohta, Y.; Ohzono, M.; Takahashi, H.; Kawamoto, S.; Hino, R.

2017-12-01

A large and destructive earthquake (Mjma 7.3) occurred on April 15, 2016 in Kumamoto region, southwestern Japan. This earthquake was accompanied approximately 32 s later by an M 6 earthquake in central Oita region, which hypocenter located 80 km northeast from the hypocenter of the mainshock of the Kumamoto earthquake. This triggered earthquake also had the many aftershocks in and around the Oita region. It is important to understand how to occur such chain-reacted earthquake sequences. We used the 1Hz dual-frequency phase and range data from GEONET in Kyushu island. The data were processed using GIPSY-OASIS (version 6.4). We adopoted kinematic PPP strategy for the coordinate estimation. The reference GPS satellite orbit and 5 s clock information were obtained using the CODE product. We also applied simple sidereal filter technique for the estimated time series. Based on the obtained 1Hz GNSS time series, we estimated the areal strain and principle strain field using the method of the Shen et al. (1996). For the assessment of the dynamic strain, firstly we calculated the averaged absolute value of areal strain field between 60-85s after the origin time of the mainshock of the Kumamoto earthquake which was used as the "reference" static strain field. Secondly, we estimated the absolute value of areal strain in each time step. Finally, we calculated the strain ratio in each time step relative to the "reference". Based on this procedure, we can extract the spatial and temporal characteristic of the dynamic strain in each time step. Extracted strain ratio clearly shows the spatial and temporal dynamic strain characteristic. When an attention is paid to a region of triggered Oita earthquake, the timing of maximum dynamic strain ratio in the epicenter just corresponds to the origin time of the triggered event. It strongly suggested that the large dynamic strain may trigger the Oita event. The epicenter of the triggered earthquake located within the geothermal region. In

Wideband simulation of earthquake ground motion by a spectrum-matching, multiple-pulse technique

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gusev, A.; Pavlov, V.

2006-04-01

To simulate earthquake ground motion, we combine a multiple-point stochastic earthquake fault model and a suite of Green functions. Conceptually, our source model generalizes the classic one of Haskell (1966). At any time instant, slip occurs over a narrow strip that sweeps the fault area at a (spatially variable) velocity. This behavior defines seismic signals at lower frequencies (LF), and describes directivity effects. High-frequency (HF) behavior of source signal is defined by local slip history, assumed to be a short segment of pulsed noise. For calculations, this model is discretized as a grid of point subsources. Subsource moment rate time histories, in their LF part, are smooth pulses whose duration equals to the rise time. In their HF part, they are segments of non-Gaussian noise of similar duration. The spectral content of subsource time histories is adjusted so that the summary far-field signal follows certain predetermined spectral scaling law. The results of simulation depend on random seeds, and on particular values of such parameters as: stress drop; average and dispersion parameter for rupture velocity; rupture nucleation point; slip zone width/rise time, wavenumber-spectrum parameter defining final slip function; the degrees of non-Gaussianity for random slip rate in time, and for random final slip in space, and more. To calculate ground motion at a site, Green functions are calculated for each subsource-site pair, then convolved with subsource time functions and at last summed over subsources. The original Green function calculator for layered weakly inelastic medium is of discrete wavenumber kind, with no intrinsic limitations with respect to layer thickness or bandwidth. The simulation package can generate example motions, or used to study uncertainties of the predicted motion. As a test, realistic analogues of recorded motions in the epicentral zone of the 1994 Northridge, California earthquake were synthesized, and related uncertainties were

Periodic, chaotic, and doubled earthquake recurrence intervals on the deep San Andreas fault.

Science.gov (United States)

Shelly, David R

2010-06-11

Earthquake recurrence histories may provide clues to the timing of future events, but long intervals between large events obscure full recurrence variability. In contrast, small earthquakes occur frequently, and recurrence intervals are quantifiable on a much shorter time scale. In this work, I examine an 8.5-year sequence of more than 900 recurring low-frequency earthquake bursts composing tremor beneath the San Andreas fault near Parkfield, California. These events exhibit tightly clustered recurrence intervals that, at times, oscillate between approximately 3 and approximately 6 days, but the patterns sometimes change abruptly. Although the environments of large and low-frequency earthquakes are different, these observations suggest that similar complexity might underlie sequences of large earthquakes.

Periodic, chaotic, and doubled earthquake recurrence intervals on the deep San Andreas Fault

Science.gov (United States)

Shelly, David R.

2010-01-01

Earthquake recurrence histories may provide clues to the timing of future events, but long intervals between large events obscure full recurrence variability. In contrast, small earthquakes occur frequently, and recurrence intervals are quantifiable on a much shorter time scale. In this work, I examine an 8.5-year sequence of more than 900 recurring low-frequency earthquake bursts composing tremor beneath the San Andreas fault near Parkfield, California. These events exhibit tightly clustered recurrence intervals that, at times, oscillate between ~3 and ~6 days, but the patterns sometimes change abruptly. Although the environments of large and low-frequency earthquakes are different, these observations suggest that similar complexity might underlie sequences of large earthquakes.

Centrality in earthquake multiplex networks

Science.gov (United States)

Lotfi, Nastaran; Darooneh, Amir Hossein; Rodrigues, Francisco A.

2018-06-01

Seismic time series has been mapped as a complex network, where a geographical region is divided into square cells that represent the nodes and connections are defined according to the sequence of earthquakes. In this paper, we map a seismic time series to a temporal network, described by a multiplex network, and characterize the evolution of the network structure in terms of the eigenvector centrality measure. We generalize previous works that considered the single layer representation of earthquake networks. Our results suggest that the multiplex representation captures better earthquake activity than methods based on single layer networks. We also verify that the regions with highest seismological activities in Iran and California can be identified from the network centrality analysis. The temporal modeling of seismic data provided here may open new possibilities for a better comprehension of the physics of earthquakes.

Spatiotemporal Analysis of the Foreshock-Mainshock-Aftershock Sequence of the 6 July 2017 M5.8 Lincoln, Montana Earthquake

Science.gov (United States)

McMahon, N. D.; Stickney, M.; Aster, R. C.; Yeck, W.; Martens, H. R.; Benz, H.

2017-12-01

On 6 July 2017, a Mw 5.8 earthquake occurred 11 km southeast of Lincoln, Montana. The event was widely-felt from Edmonton, Alberta, Canada (750 km north), Seattle, Washington (800 km west), the Idaho/Utah and Idaho/Nevada borders (550 km south), and Rapid City, South Dakota (750 km east). This is the largest earthquake to occur in the state since the 1959 M 7.3 Hebgen Lake event 250 km to the southeast. In the three weeks following the 6 July 2017 Mw 5.8 main shock, the U.S. Geological Survey and Montana Bureau of Mines and Geology located more than 300 aftershocks. Preliminary observations show most of these aftershocks form a short NNE zone that suggests that the main shock may have slipped on a NNE left-lateral fault. A smaller number of aftershocks extend along a longer WNW-trending zone. These faults are part of the Lewis and Clark line, a prominent zone of Middle Proterozoic to Holocene age strike-slip, dip slip, and oblique slip faulting trending 400 km east-southeast from northern Idaho to east of Helena, Montana, and terminating southeast of this earthquake. We use identified aftershock waveforms as templates to examine the data from 1 June 2017 through 27 July 2017 with cross-correlation techniques on nearby permanent and temporary seismic stations deployed shortly after the mainshock to identify foreshocks and additional small aftershocks. Locating these events allows us to study subsurface geology, map fault structures, and provide insight on the spatial and temporal evolution of the earthquake sequence, which may continue to produce aftershocks for years. Other notable earthquakes in the region include a damaging M 6.6 earthquake 100 km to the south in June 1925, M 6.2 and M 6.0 earthquakes near Helena, Montana in October 1935 that caused significant damage and four fatalities, and a M 5.6 earthquake 170 km to the south in July 2005 that caused minor damage in Dillon and the surrounding region. We hope this work not only allows us to map the involved

Extreme value statistics and thermodynamics of earthquakes: large earthquakes

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

B. H. Lavenda

2000-06-01

Full Text Available A compound Poisson process is used to derive a new shape parameter which can be used to discriminate between large earthquakes and aftershock sequences. Sample exceedance distributions of large earthquakes are fitted to the Pareto tail and the actual distribution of the maximum to the Fréchet distribution, while the sample distribution of aftershocks are fitted to a Beta distribution and the distribution of the minimum to the Weibull distribution for the smallest value. The transition between initial sample distributions and asymptotic extreme value distributions shows that self-similar power laws are transformed into nonscaling exponential distributions so that neither self-similarity nor the Gutenberg-Richter law can be considered universal. The energy-magnitude transformation converts the Fréchet distribution into the Gumbel distribution, originally proposed by Epstein and Lomnitz, and not the Gompertz distribution as in the Lomnitz-Adler and Lomnitz generalization of the Gutenberg-Richter law. Numerical comparison is made with the Lomnitz-Adler and Lomnitz analysis using the same Catalogue of Chinese Earthquakes. An analogy is drawn between large earthquakes and high energy particle physics. A generalized equation of state is used to transform the Gamma density into the order-statistic Fréchet distribution. Earthquaketemperature and volume are determined as functions of the energy. Large insurance claims based on the Pareto distribution, which does not have a right endpoint, show why there cannot be a maximum earthquake energy.

The 2012 Strike-slip Earthquake Sequence in Black Sea and its Link to the Caucasus Collision Zone

Science.gov (United States)

Tseng, T. L.; Hsu, C. H.; Legendre, C. P.; Jian, P. R.; Huang, B. S.; Karakhanian, A.; Chen, C. W.

2016-12-01

The Black Sea formed as a back-arc basin in Late Cretaceous to Paleogene with lots of extensional features. However, the Black Sea is now tectonically stable and absent of notable earthquakes except for the coastal region. In this study we invert regional waveforms of a new seismic array to constrain the focal mechanisms and depths of the 2012/12/23 earthquake sequence occurred in northeastern Black Sea basin that can provide unique estimates on the stress field in the region. The results show that the focal mechanisms for the main shock and 5 larger aftershocks are all strike-slip faulting and resembling with each other. The main rupture fall along the vertical dipping, NW-SE trending sinistral fault indicated by the lineation of most aftershocks. The fault strike and aftershock distribution are both consistent with the Shatsky Ridge, which is continental in nature but large normal faults was created by previous subsidence. The occurrence of 2012 earthquakes can be re-activated, as strike-slip, on one of the pre-existing normal fault cutting at depth nearly 20-30 km in the extended crust. Some of the aftershocks, including a larger one occurred 5 days later, are distributed toward NE direction 20 km away from main fault zone. Those events might be triggered by the main shock along a conjugate fault, which is surprisingly at the extension of proposed transform fault perpendicular to the rift axis of eastern Black Sea Basin. The focal mechanisms also indicate that the maximum compression in northeast Black Sea is at E-W direction, completely different from the N-S compression in the Caucasus and East Turkey controlled by Arabia-Eurasia collision. The origin of E-W maximum compression is probably the same as the secondary stress inferred from earthquakes in Racha region of the Greater Caucasus.

Seismic quiescence before the 2016 Mw 6.0 Amatrice earthquake, central Italy

Science.gov (United States)

Di Giovambattista, R.; Gentili, S.; Peresan, A.

2017-12-01

Seismic quiescence before major worldwide earthquakes has been reported by many authors. We have analyzed the seismicity preceding the last damaging 2016-2017 seismic sequence occurred in central Italy, and we have characterized the temporal and spatial extension of the foregoing seismic quiescence. The multiple mainshock sequence (24/08/2016, Mw 6.0; 26/10/2016 Mw 5.4 and 5.9; 30/10/2016, Mw 6.5), which occurred in central Italy, caused the death of nearly 300 people and widespread destruction of entire villages. The Mw 6.5 earthquake was the most powerful recorded in Italy since the 1980 M 6.9 Irpinia earthquake. The Region-Time-Length (RTL) method has been used to quantitatively analyze the seismic quiescence preceding the first Mw 6.0 Amatrice mainshock. This analysis was performed using the earthquake catalogue maintained by the Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV) declustered using a novel statistical approach, which is based on the "nearest-neighbor" distances between pairs of earthquakes in the space-time-energy domain. A well-evident quiescence that preceded the sequence was detected. The quiescence extended throughout a broad region north of the epicenter. The largest event of the sequence and its aftershocks covered most of the quiescence region, except for a small area to the west. The quiescence started from the beginning of September 2015 and lasted for approximately 1 year, up to the Amatrice mainshock. The results obtained have been compared with those of previous seismic sequences occurred in Italy. A similar analysis applied to the 1997-1998, Mw 5.7 Umbria-Marche earthquakes located at the northern termination of the Amatrice sequence, showed a decrease in RTL corresponding to a seismic quiescence, followed by a foreshock activation in the epicentral area before the occurrence of the mainshock.

Ionospheric Anomaly before Kyushu|Japan Earthquake

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

YANG Li

2017-05-01

Full Text Available GIM data released by IGS is used in the article and a new method of combining the Sliding Time Window Method and the Ionospheric TEC correlation analysis method of adjacent grid points is proposed to study the relationship between pre-earthquake ionospheric anomalies and earthquake. By analyzing the abnormal change of TEC in the 5 grid points around the seismic region, the abnormal change of ionospheric TEC is found before the earthquake and the correlation between the TEC sequences of lattice points is significantly affected by earthquake. Based on the analysis of the spatial distribution of TEC anomaly, anomalies of 6 h, 12 h and 6 h were found near the epicenter three days before the earthquake. Finally, ionospheric tomographic technology is used to do tomographic inversion on electron density. And the distribution of the electron density in the ionospheric anomaly is further analyzed.

Data- and Tool-rich Curriculum on Natural Catastrophes: Case Study of M9+ Earthquakes and Mega-tsunamis in Cascadia

Science.gov (United States)

Mayhew, M.; Hall, M.; Walker, C. S.; Butler, R. F.

2008-12-01

hazard analysis for a specific Cascadian coastal community, Seaside, Oregon, and in the process develop evacuation scenarios and analyze scenario casualty rates, should a great earthquake happen at peak tourist season. In addition to the Cascadia unit, units have been or are being developed for the M 6.7 Northridge earthquake of 1994, the Oklahoma City Super Tornado Outbreak of 1974, and Hurricane Katrina. The objective of the curriculum is to give students skills in application of data analysis and visualization tools, as well as an understanding of the physical processes attendant on great natural catastrophes.

Simultaneous estimation of earthquake source parameters and ...

Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

moderate-size aftershocks (Mw 2.1–5.1) of the Mw 7.7 2001 Bhuj earthquake. The horizontal- ... claimed a death toll of 20,000 people. This earth- .... quake occurred west of Kachchh, with an epicenter at 24. ◦. N, 68 ..... for dominance of body waves for R ≤ 100 km ...... Bhuj earthquake sequence; J. Asian Earth Sci. 40.

Investigating the Local Three-dimensional Velocity Structure of the 2008 Taoyuan Earthquake Sequence of Kaohsiung, Taiwan

Science.gov (United States)

Shih, M. H.; Huang, B. S.

2016-12-01

March 4, 2008, a moderate earthquake (ML 5.2) occurred in Taoyuan district of Kaohsiung County in the southern Taiwan. It was followed by numerous aftershocks in the following 48 hours, including three events with magnitude larger than 4. The Taoyuan earthquake sequence occurred during the TAIGER (Taiwan Integrated Geodynamic Research) project which is to image lithospheric structure of Taiwan orogeny. The high-resolution waveform data of this sequence were well-recorded by a large number of recording stations belong to several different permanent and TAIGER networks all around Taiwan. We had collected the waveform data and archived to a mega database. Then, we had identified 2,340 events from database in the preliminary locating process by using 1-D velocity model. In this study, we applied the double-difference tomography to investigate not only the fault geometry of the main shock but also the detailed 3-D velocity structure in this area. A total of 3,034 events were selected from preliminary locating result and CWBSN catalog in the vicinity. The resulting aftershocks are extended along the NE-SW direction and located on a 45° SE-dipping plane which agrees to one of the nodal planes of Global CMT solution (strike = 45°, dip = 40° and rake = 119°). We can identify a clear low-velocity area which is enclosed by events next to the main shock in the final 3D velocity model. We also recognized a 45°-dipping zone which is extended to the ground surface with low-velocity; meanwhile, velocity structure variation in study area correspond with major geologic units in Taiwan.

Testing for the 'predictability' of dynamically triggered earthquakes in The Geysers geothermal field

Science.gov (United States)

Aiken, Chastity; Meng, Xiaofeng; Hardebeck, Jeanne

2018-03-01

The Geysers geothermal field is well known for being susceptible to dynamic triggering of earthquakes by large distant earthquakes, owing to the introduction of fluids for energy production. Yet, it is unknown if dynamic triggering of earthquakes is 'predictable' or whether dynamic triggering could lead to a potential hazard for energy production. In this paper, our goal is to investigate the characteristics of triggering and the physical conditions that promote triggering to determine whether or not triggering is in anyway foreseeable. We find that, at present, triggering in The Geysers is not easily 'predictable' in terms of when and where based on observable physical conditions. However, triggered earthquake magnitude positively correlates with peak imparted dynamic stress, and larger dynamic stresses tend to trigger sequences similar to mainshock-aftershock sequences. Thus, we may be able to 'predict' what size earthquakes to expect at The Geysers following a large distant earthquake.

The 1994 Forum on Appropriate Criteria and Methods for Seismic Design of Nuclear Piping

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Slagis, G.C.

1995-01-01

A record of the 1994 Forum on Appropriate Criteria and Methods for Seismic Design of Nuclear Piping is provided. The focus of the forum was the design-by-rule method for seismic design of piping. Issues such as acceptance criteria, ductility considerations, demonstration of margin, training, verification and costs were discussed. The use of earthquake experience data, including the recent Northridge earthquake, to justify a design-by-rule method was explored. The majority of the participants felt there are not significant advantages to developing a design-by-rule approach for new plant design. One major disadvantage was considered by many to be training. Extensive training will be required to properly implement a design-by-rule approach. Verification of designs was considered by the majority to be equally important for design-by-rule as for design-by-analysis. If a design-by-rule method is going to be effective, the method will have to be based on ductility considerations (UBC approach). A significant issue will be justification of seismic margins with liberal rules. The UBC approach is being questioned by some because of the recent structural cracking problems in the Northridge earthquake

1/f and the Earthquake Problem: Scaling constraints that facilitate operational earthquake forecasting

Science.gov (United States)

yoder, M. R.; Rundle, J. B.; Turcotte, D. L.

2012-12-01

The difficulty of forecasting earthquakes can fundamentally be attributed to the self-similar, or "1/f", nature of seismic sequences. Specifically, the rate of occurrence of earthquakes is inversely proportional to their magnitude m, or more accurately to their scalar moment M. With respect to this "1/f problem," it can be argued that catalog selection (or equivalently, determining catalog constraints) constitutes the most significant challenge to seismicity based earthquake forecasting. Here, we address and introduce a potential solution to this most daunting problem. Specifically, we introduce a framework to constrain, or partition, an earthquake catalog (a study region) in order to resolve local seismicity. In particular, we combine Gutenberg-Richter (GR), rupture length, and Omori scaling with various empirical measurements to relate the size (spatial and temporal extents) of a study area (or bins within a study area) to the local earthquake magnitude potential - the magnitude of earthquake the region is expected to experience. From this, we introduce a new type of time dependent hazard map for which the tuning parameter space is nearly fully constrained. In a similar fashion, by combining various scaling relations and also by incorporating finite extents (rupture length, area, and duration) as constraints, we develop a method to estimate the Omori (temporal) and spatial aftershock decay parameters as a function of the parent earthquake's magnitude m. From this formulation, we develop an ETAS type model that overcomes many point-source limitations of contemporary ETAS. These models demonstrate promise with respect to earthquake forecasting applications. Moreover, the methods employed suggest a general framework whereby earthquake and other complex-system, 1/f type, problems can be constrained from scaling relations and finite extents.; Record-breaking hazard map of southern California, 2012-08-06. "Warm" colors indicate local acceleration (elevated hazard

Listening to the 2011 magnitude 9.0 Tohoku-Oki, Japan, earthquake

Science.gov (United States)

Peng, Zhigang; Aiken, Chastity; Kilb, Debi; Shelly, David R.; Enescu, Bogdan

2012-01-01

The magnitude 9.0 Tohoku-Oki, Japan, earthquake on 11 March 2011 is the largest earthquake to date in Japan’s modern history and is ranked as the fourth largest earthquake in the world since 1900. This earthquake occurred within the northeast Japan subduction zone (Figure 1), where the Pacific plate is subducting beneath the Okhotsk plate at rate of ∼8–9 cm/yr (DeMets et al. 2010). This type of extremely large earthquake within a subduction zone is generally termed a “megathrust” earthquake. Strong shaking from this magnitude 9 earthquake engulfed the entire Japanese Islands, reaching a maximum acceleration ∼3 times that of gravity (3 g). Two days prior to the main event, a foreshock sequence occurred, including one earthquake of magnitude 7.2. Following the main event, numerous aftershocks occurred around the main slip region; the largest of these was magnitude 7.9. The entire foreshocks-mainshock-aftershocks sequence was well recorded by thousands of sensitive seismometers and geodetic instruments across Japan, resulting in the best-recorded megathrust earthquake in history. This devastating earthquake resulted in significant damage and high death tolls caused primarily by the associated large tsunami. This tsunami reached heights of more than 30 m, and inundation propagated inland more than 5 km from the Pacific coast, which also caused a nuclear crisis that is still affecting people’s lives in certain regions of Japan.

IDENTIFICATION OF EARTHQUAKE AFTERSHOCK AND SWARM SEQUENCES IN THE BAIKAL RIFT ZONE

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

N. A. Radziminovich

2013-01-01

Full Text Available The catalog of earthquakes (КR³6.6 which occurred in the Baikal rift zone (BRZ was declastered, and the results are presented in the article. Aftershocks of seismic events (КR³12.5 were determined by the software developed by V.B. Smirnov (Lomonosov Moscow State University with application of the algorithm co-authored by G.M. Molchan and O.E. Dmitrieva. To ensure proper control of the software application, aftershocks were also selected manually. The results of declustering show that aftershocks of the earthquakes (КR³12.5 account for about 25 per cent of all seismic events in the regional catalog. Aftershocks accompanied 90 per cent of all the earthquakes considered as main shocks. Besides, earthquake swarms, including events with КR³11, were identified. The results of this study show that, in the BRZ, the swarms and strong events with aftershocks are not spatially separated, and this conclusion differs from the views of the previous studies that reviewed data from a shorter observation period. Moreover, it is noted that the swarms may consist of several main shocks accompanied by aftershocks. The data accumulated over the last fifty years of instrumental observations support the conclusion made earlier that the swarms in BRZ occur mainly in the north-eastward direction from Lake Baikal and also confirm the trend of a small number of aftershocks accompanying earthquakes in the south-western part of the Baikal rift zone.

Implication of conjugate faulting in the earthquake brewing and originating process

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Jones, L.M. (Massachusetts Inst. of Tech., Cambridge); Deng, Q.; Jiang, P.

1980-03-01

The earthquake sequence, precursory and geologo-structural background of the Haicheng, Tangshan, Songpan-Pingwu earthquakes are discussed in this article. All of these earthquakes occurred in a seismic zone controlled by the main boundary faults of an intraplate fault block. However, the fault plane of a main earthquake does not consist of the same faults, but is rather a related secondary fault. They formed altogether a conjugate shearing rupture zone under the action of a regional tectonic stress field. As to the earthquake sequence, the foreshocks and aftershocks might occur on the conjugate fault planes within an epicentral region rather than be limited to the fault plane of a main earthquake, such as the distribution of foreshocks and aftershocks of the Haicheng earthquake. The characteristics of the long-, medium-, and imminent-term earthquake precursory anomalies of the three mentioned earthquakes, especially the character of well-studies anomaly phenomena in electrical resistivity, radon emission, groundwater and animal behavior, have been investigated. The studies of these earthquake precursors show that they were distributed in an area rather more extensive than the epicentral region. Some fault zones in the conjugate fault network usually appeared as distributed belts or concentrated zones of earthquake precursory anomalies, and can be traced in the medium-long term precursory field, but seem more distinct in the short-imminent term precursory anomalous field. These characteristics can be explained by the rupture and sliding originating along the conjugate shear network and the concentration of stress in the regional stress field.

Memory effect in M ≥ 6 earthquakes of South-North Seismic Belt, Mainland China

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Jeen-Hwa

2013-07-01

The M ≥ 6 earthquakes occurred in the South-North Seismic Belt, Mainland China, during 1901-2008 are taken to study the possible existence of memory effect in large earthquakes. The fluctuation analysis technique is applied to analyze the sequences of earthquake magnitude and inter-event time represented in the natural time domain. Calculated results show that the exponents of scaling law of fluctuation versus window length are less than 0.5 for the sequences of earthquake magnitude and inter-event time. The migration of earthquakes in study is taken to discuss the possible correlation between events. The phase portraits of two sequent magnitudes and two sequent inter-event times are also applied to explore if large (or small) earthquakes are followed by large (or small) events. Together with all kinds of given information, we conclude that the earthquakes in study is short-term correlated and thus the short-term memory effect would be operative.

Bayesian inference and interpretation of centroid moment tensors of the 2016 Kumamoto earthquake sequence, Kyushu, Japan

Science.gov (United States)

Hallo, Miroslav; Asano, Kimiyuki; Gallovič, František

2017-09-01

On April 16, 2016, Kumamoto prefecture in Kyushu region, Japan, was devastated by a shallow M JMA7.3 earthquake. The series of foreshocks started by M JMA6.5 foreshock 28 h before the mainshock. They have originated in Hinagu fault zone intersecting the mainshock Futagawa fault zone; hence, the tectonic background for this earthquake sequence is rather complex. Here we infer centroid moment tensors (CMTs) for 11 events with M JMA between 4.8 and 6.5, using strong motion records of the K-NET, KiK-net and F-net networks. We use upgraded Bayesian full-waveform inversion code ISOLA-ObsPy, which takes into account uncertainty of the velocity model. Such an approach allows us to reliably assess uncertainty of the CMT parameters including the centroid position. The solutions show significant systematic spatial and temporal variations throughout the sequence. Foreshocks are right-lateral steeply dipping strike-slip events connected to the NE-SW shear zone. Those located close to the intersection of the Hinagu and Futagawa fault zones are dipping slightly to ESE, while those in the southern area are dipping to WNW. Contrarily, aftershocks are mostly normal dip-slip events, being related to the N-S extensional tectonic regime. Most of the deviatoric moment tensors contain only minor CLVD component, which can be attributed to the velocity model uncertainty. Nevertheless, two of the CMTs involve a significant CLVD component, which may reflect complex rupture process. Decomposition of those moment tensors into two pure shear moment tensors suggests combined right-lateral strike-slip and normal dip-slip mechanisms, consistent with the tectonic settings of the intersection of the Hinagu and Futagawa fault zones.[Figure not available: see fulltext.

Long aftershock sequences in North China and Central US: implications for hazard assessment in mid-continents

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, Mian; Luo, Gang; Wang, Hui; Stein, Seth

2014-02-01

Because seismic activity within mid-continents is usually much lower than that along plate boundary zones, even small earthquakes can cause widespread concerns, especially when these events occur in the source regions of previous large earthquakes. However, these small earthquakes may be just aftershocks that continue for decades or even longer. The recent seismicity in the Tangshan region in North China is likely aftershocks of the 1976 Great Tangshan earthquake. The current earthquake sequence in the New Madrid seismic zone in central United States, which includes a cluster of M ~ 7.0 events in 1811-1812 and a number of similar events in the past millennium, is believed to result from recent fault reactivation that releases pre-stored strain energy in the crust. If so, this earthquake sequence is similar to aftershocks in that the rates of energy release should decay with time and the sequence of earthquakes will eventually end. We use simple physical analysis and numerical simulations to show that the current sequence of large earthquakes in the New Madrid fault zone is likely ending or has ended. Recognizing that mid-continental earthquakes have long aftershock sequences and complex spatiotemporal occurrences are critical to improve hazard assessments.

Rapid earthquake characterization using MEMS accelerometers and volunteer hosts following the M 7.2 Darfield, New Zealand, Earthquake

Science.gov (United States)

Lawrence, J. F.; Cochran, E.S.; Chung, A.; Kaiser, A.; Christensen, C. M.; Allen, R.; Baker, J.W.; Fry, B.; Heaton, T.; Kilb, Debi; Kohler, M.D.; Taufer, M.

2014-01-01

We test the feasibility of rapidly detecting and characterizing earthquakes with the Quake‐Catcher Network (QCN) that connects low‐cost microelectromechanical systems accelerometers to a network of volunteer‐owned, Internet‐connected computers. Following the 3 September 2010 M 7.2 Darfield, New Zealand, earthquake we installed over 180 QCN sensors in the Christchurch region to record the aftershock sequence. The sensors are monitored continuously by the host computer and send trigger reports to the central server. The central server correlates incoming triggers to detect when an earthquake has occurred. The location and magnitude are then rapidly estimated from a minimal set of received ground‐motion parameters. Full seismic time series are typically not retrieved for tens of minutes or even hours after an event. We benchmark the QCN real‐time detection performance against the GNS Science GeoNet earthquake catalog. Under normal network operations, QCN detects and characterizes earthquakes within 9.1 s of the earthquake rupture and determines the magnitude within 1 magnitude unit of that reported in the GNS catalog for 90% of the detections.

Study of temporal sequences of LANSAT images to detect the accumulation of stress prior of strong earthquakes in Chile.

Science.gov (United States)

Arellano-Baeza, A. A.

2016-12-01

We studied the temporal evolution of the lineaments obtained from the LANSAT-8 associated to the accumulation of stress patterns related to the seismic activity. A lineament is generally defined as a straight or a somewhat curved feature in the landscape visible in a satellite image as an aligned sequence of pixels of a contrasting intensity compared to the background. The system of lineaments extracted from the satellite images is not identical to the geological lineaments; nevertheless, it generally reflects the structure of the faults and fractures in the Earth's crust. The satellite images were processed by the ADALGEO software developed by us. We selected two areas of study with different characteristics. The first area is located near to the Diego de Almagro town in the Copiapo region, Chile. This area did not show any strong seismic activity between 2010 and 2015. However, two strong earthquakes took place later on April 16, 2016 (Mw=5.3) and July 25, 2016 (Mw=6.1). The second area located near the Illapel town in Coquimbo region shows lack of strong earthquakes between 2010 and 2012 and strong seismic activity between 2012 and 2015, culminating by the September 16, 2015 earthquake (Mw=8.3). The distance between two areas is nearly 600 km. In case of the Diego de Almagro area, very few lineaments have been observed between 2010 and 2015, showing a significant increase during the 2016. In case of the Illapel region, the number of lineaments was always much higher, showing an explosive increase at the end of 2015. For both areas the lineaments changed its orientation before strong earthquakes.

Testing for the ‘predictability’ of dynamically triggered earthquakes in Geysers Geothermal Field

Science.gov (United States)

Aiken, Chastity; Meng, Xiaofeng; Hardebeck, Jeanne L.

2018-01-01

The Geysers geothermal field is well known for being susceptible to dynamic triggering of earthquakes by large distant earthquakes, owing to the introduction of fluids for energy production. Yet, it is unknown if dynamic triggering of earthquakes is ‘predictable’ or whether dynamic triggering could lead to a potential hazard for energy production. In this paper, our goal is to investigate the characteristics of triggering and the physical conditions that promote triggering to determine whether or not triggering is in anyway foreseeable. We find that, at present, triggering in The Geysers is not easily ‘predictable’ in terms of when and where based on observable physical conditions. However, triggered earthquake magnitude positively correlates with peak imparted dynamic stress, and larger dynamic stresses tend to trigger sequences similar to mainshock–aftershock sequences. Thus, we may be able to ‘predict’ what size earthquakes to expect at The Geysers following a large distant earthquake.

Seismic response analysis of a 13-story steel moment-framed building in Alhambra, California

Science.gov (United States)

Rodgers, Janise E.; Sanli, Ahmet K.; Çelebi, Mehmet

2004-01-01

The seismic performance of steel moment-framed buildings has been of particular interest since brittle fractures were discovered at the beam-column connections of some frames following the M6.7 1994 Northridge earthquake. This report presents an investigation of the seismic behavior of an instrumented 13-story steel moment frame building located in the greater Los Angeles area of California. An extensive strong motion dataset, ambient vibration data, engineering drawings and earthquake damage reports are available for this building. The data are described and subsequently analyzed. The results of the analyses show that the building response is more complex than would be expected from its highly symmetrical geometry. The building's response is characterized by low damping in the fundamental mode, larger peak accelerations in the intermediate stories than at the roof, extended periods of vibration after the cessation of strong input shaking, beating in the response, and significant torsion during strong shaking at the top of the concrete piers which extend from the basement to the second floor. The analyses of the data and all damage detection methods employed except one method based on system identification indicate that the response of the structure was elastic in all recorded earthquakes. These findings are in general agreement with the results of intrusive inspections (meaning fireproofing and architectural finishes were removed) conducted on approximately 5 percent of the moment connections following the Northridge earthquake, which found no earthquake damage.

Comparative Study on Code-based Linear Evaluation of an Existing RC Building Damaged during 1998 Adana-Ceyhan Earthquake

Science.gov (United States)

Toprak, A. Emre; Gülay, F. Gülten; Ruge, Peter

2008-07-01

Determination of seismic performance of existing buildings has become one of the key concepts in structural analysis topics after recent earthquakes (i.e. Izmit and Duzce Earthquakes in 1999, Kobe Earthquake in 1995 and Northridge Earthquake in 1994). Considering the need for precise assessment tools to determine seismic performance level, most of earthquake hazardous countries try to include performance based assessment in their seismic codes. Recently, Turkish Earthquake Code 2007 (TEC'07), which was put into effect in March 2007, also introduced linear and non-linear assessment procedures to be applied prior to building retrofitting. In this paper, a comparative study is performed on the code-based seismic assessment of RC buildings with linear static methods of analysis, selecting an existing RC building. The basic principles dealing the procedure of seismic performance evaluations for existing RC buildings according to Eurocode 8 and TEC'07 will be outlined and compared. Then the procedure is applied to a real case study building is selected which is exposed to 1998 Adana-Ceyhan Earthquake in Turkey, the seismic action of Ms = 6.3 with a maximum ground acceleration of 0.28 g It is a six-storey RC residential building with a total of 14.65 m height, composed of orthogonal frames, symmetrical in y direction and it does not have any significant structural irregularities. The rectangular shaped planar dimensions are 16.40 m×7.80 m = 127.90 m2 with five spans in x and two spans in y directions. It was reported that the building had been moderately damaged during the 1998 earthquake and retrofitting process was suggested by the authorities with adding shear-walls to the system. The computations show that the performing methods of analysis with linear approaches using either Eurocode 8 or TEC'07 independently produce similar performance levels of collapse for the critical storey of the structure. The computed base shear value according to Eurocode is much higher

Comparative Study on Code-based Linear Evaluation of an Existing RC Building Damaged during 1998 Adana-Ceyhan Earthquake

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Toprak, A. Emre; Guelay, F. Guelten; Ruge, Peter

2008-01-01

Determination of seismic performance of existing buildings has become one of the key concepts in structural analysis topics after recent earthquakes (i.e. Izmit and Duzce Earthquakes in 1999, Kobe Earthquake in 1995 and Northridge Earthquake in 1994). Considering the need for precise assessment tools to determine seismic performance level, most of earthquake hazardous countries try to include performance based assessment in their seismic codes. Recently, Turkish Earthquake Code 2007 (TEC'07), which was put into effect in March 2007, also introduced linear and non-linear assessment procedures to be applied prior to building retrofitting. In this paper, a comparative study is performed on the code-based seismic assessment of RC buildings with linear static methods of analysis, selecting an existing RC building. The basic principles dealing the procedure of seismic performance evaluations for existing RC buildings according to Eurocode 8 and TEC'07 will be outlined and compared. Then the procedure is applied to a real case study building is selected which is exposed to 1998 Adana-Ceyhan Earthquake in Turkey, the seismic action of Ms = 6.3 with a maximum ground acceleration of 0.28 g It is a six-storey RC residential building with a total of 14.65 m height, composed of orthogonal frames, symmetrical in y direction and it does not have any significant structural irregularities. The rectangular shaped planar dimensions are 16.40 mx7.80 m = 127.90 m 2 with five spans in x and two spans in y directions. It was reported that the building had been moderately damaged during the 1998 earthquake and retrofitting process was suggested by the authorities with adding shear-walls to the system. The computations show that the performing methods of analysis with linear approaches using either Eurocode 8 or TEC'07 independently produce similar performance levels of collapse for the critical storey of the structure. The computed base shear value according to Eurocode is much higher

Sediment gravity flows triggered by remotely generated earthquake waves

Science.gov (United States)

Johnson, H. Paul; Gomberg, Joan S.; Hautala, Susan L.; Salmi, Marie S.

2017-06-01

Recent great earthquakes and tsunamis around the world have heightened awareness of the inevitability of similar events occurring within the Cascadia Subduction Zone of the Pacific Northwest. We analyzed seafloor temperature, pressure, and seismic signals, and video stills of sediment-enveloped instruments recorded during the 2011-2015 Cascadia Initiative experiment, and seafloor morphology. Our results led us to suggest that thick accretionary prism sediments amplified and extended seismic wave durations from the 11 April 2012 Mw8.6 Indian Ocean earthquake, located more than 13,500 km away. These waves triggered a sequence of small slope failures on the Cascadia margin that led to sediment gravity flows culminating in turbidity currents. Previous studies have related the triggering of sediment-laden gravity flows and turbidite deposition to local earthquakes, but this is the first study in which the originating seismic event is extremely distant (> 10,000 km). The possibility of remotely triggered slope failures that generate sediment-laden gravity flows should be considered in inferences of recurrence intervals of past great Cascadia earthquakes from turbidite sequences. Future similar studies may provide new understanding of submarine slope failures and turbidity currents and the hazards they pose to seafloor infrastructure and tsunami generation in regions both with and without local earthquakes.

Rapid characterization of the 2015 Mw 7.8 Gorkha, Nepal, earthquake sequence and its seismotectonic context

Science.gov (United States)

Hayes, Gavin; Briggs, Richard; Barnhart, William D.; Yeck, William; McNamara, Daniel E.; Wald, David J.; Nealy, Jennifer; Benz, Harley M.; Gold, Ryan D.; Jaiswal, Kishor S.; Marano, Kristin; Earle, Paul S.; Hearne, Mike; Smoczyk, Gregory M.; Wald, Lisa A.; Samsonov, Sergey

2015-01-01

Earthquake response and related information products are important for placing recent seismic events into context and particularly for understanding the impact earthquakes can have on the regional community and its infrastructure. These tools are even more useful if they are available quickly, ahead of detailed information from the areas affected by such earthquakes. Here we provide an overview of the response activities and related information products generated and provided by the U.S. Geological Survey National Earthquake Information Center in association with the 2015 M 7.8 Gorkha, Nepal, earthquake. This group monitors global earthquakes 24  hrs/day and 7  days/week to provide rapid information on the location and size of recent events and to characterize the source properties, tectonic setting, and potential fatalities and economic losses associated with significant earthquakes. We present the timeline over which these products became available, discuss what they tell us about the seismotectonics of the Gorkha earthquake and its aftershocks, and examine how their information is used today, and might be used in the future, to help mitigate the impact of such natural disasters.

The role of complex site and basin response in Wellington city, New Zealand, during the 2016 Mw 7.8 Kaikōura earthquake and other recent earthquake sequences.

Science.gov (United States)

Kaiser, A. E.; McVerry, G.; Wotherspoon, L.; Bradley, B.; Gerstenberger, M.; Benites, R. A.; Bruce, Z.; Bourguignon, S.; Giallini, S.; Hill, M.

2017-12-01

We present analysis of ground motion and complex amplification characteristics in Wellington during recent earthquake sequences and an overview of the 3D basin characterization and ongoing work to update site parameters for seismic design. Significant damage was observed in central Wellington, New Zealand's capital city, following the 2016 Mw7.8 Kaikōura earthquake. Damage was concentrated in mid-rise structures (5 - 15 storeys) and was clearly exacerbated by the particular characteristics of ground motion and the presence of basin effects. Due to the distance of the source (50 - 60km) from the central city, peak ground accelerations were moderate (up to 0.28g) and well within ultimate limit state (ULS) design levels. However, spectral accelerations within the 1 -2 s period range, exceeded 1 in 500 year design level spectra (ULS) in deeper parts of the basin. Amplification with respect to rock at these locations reached factors of up to 7, and was also observed with factors up to at least three across all central city soil recording sites. The ground motions in Wellington were the strongest recorded in the modern era of instrumentation. While similar amplification was observed during the 2013 Mw 6.6 Cook Strait and Grassmere earthquakes, which struck close to the termination of the Kaikōura earthquake rupture, these sources were not sufficiently large to excite significant long-period motions. However, other M7.2+ sources in the region that dominate the seismic hazard, e.g. Wellington Fault, Hikurangi subduction interface and other large proximal crustal faults, are also potentially capable of exciting significant long-period basin response in Wellington. These observations and the expectation of ongoing heightened seismicity have prompted re-evaluation of the current seismic demand levels. Additional field campaigns have also been undertaken to update geotechnical properties and the 3D basin model, in order to inform ongoing research and seismic design practice.

Spatial Evaluation and Verification of Earthquake Simulators

Science.gov (United States)

Wilson, John Max; Yoder, Mark R.; Rundle, John B.; Turcotte, Donald L.; Schultz, Kasey W.

2017-06-01

In this paper, we address the problem of verifying earthquake simulators with observed data. Earthquake simulators are a class of computational simulations which attempt to mirror the topological complexity of fault systems on which earthquakes occur. In addition, the physics of friction and elastic interactions between fault elements are included in these simulations. Simulation parameters are adjusted so that natural earthquake sequences are matched in their scaling properties. Physically based earthquake simulators can generate many thousands of years of simulated seismicity, allowing for a robust capture of the statistical properties of large, damaging earthquakes that have long recurrence time scales. Verification of simulations against current observed earthquake seismicity is necessary, and following past simulator and forecast model verification methods, we approach the challenges in spatial forecast verification to simulators; namely, that simulator outputs are confined to the modeled faults, while observed earthquake epicenters often occur off of known faults. We present two methods for addressing this discrepancy: a simplistic approach whereby observed earthquakes are shifted to the nearest fault element and a smoothing method based on the power laws of the epidemic-type aftershock (ETAS) model, which distributes the seismicity of each simulated earthquake over the entire test region at a decaying rate with epicentral distance. To test these methods, a receiver operating characteristic plot was produced by comparing the rate maps to observed m>6.0 earthquakes in California since 1980. We found that the nearest-neighbor mapping produced poor forecasts, while the ETAS power-law method produced rate maps that agreed reasonably well with observations.

Links Between Earthquake Characteristics and Subducting Plate Heterogeneity in the 2016 Pedernales Ecuador Earthquake Rupture Zone

Science.gov (United States)

Bai, L.; Mori, J. J.

2016-12-01

The collision between the Indian and Eurasian plates formed the Himalayas, the largest orogenic belt on the Earth. The entire region accommodates shallow earthquakes, while intermediate-depth earthquakes are concentrated at the eastern and western Himalayan syntaxis. Here we investigate the focal depths, fault plane solutions, and source rupture process for three earthquake sequences, which are located at the western, central and eastern regions of the Himalayan orogenic belt. The Pamir-Hindu Kush region is located at the western Himalayan syntaxis and is characterized by extreme shortening of the upper crust and strong interaction of various layers of the lithosphere. Many shallow earthquakes occur on the Main Pamir Thrust at focal depths shallower than 20 km, while intermediate-deep earthquakes are mostly located below 75 km. Large intermediate-depth earthquakes occur frequently at the western Himalayan syntaxis about every 10 years on average. The 2015 Nepal earthquake is located in the central Himalayas. It is a typical megathrust earthquake that occurred on the shallow portion of the Main Himalayan Thrust (MHT). Many of the aftershocks are located above the MHT and illuminate faulting structures in the hanging wall with dip angles that are steeper than the MHT. These observations provide new constraints on the collision and uplift processes for the Himalaya orogenic belt. The Indo-Burma region is located south of the eastern Himalayan syntaxis, where the strike of the plate boundary suddenly changes from nearly east-west at the Himalayas to nearly north-south at the Burma Arc. The Burma arc subduction zone is a typical oblique plate convergence zone. The eastern boundary is the north-south striking dextral Sagaing fault, which hosts many shallow earthquakes with focal depth less than 25 km. In contrast, intermediate-depth earthquakes along the subduction zone reflect east-west trending reverse faulting.

2014 mainshock-aftershock activity versus earthquake swarms in West\

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Jakoubková, Hana; Horálek, Josef; Fischer, T.

2018-01-01

Roč. 175, č. 1 (2018), s. 109-131 ISSN 0033-4553 R&D Projects: GA ČR GAP210/12/2336; GA MŠk(CZ) LM2015079 Institutional support: RVO:67985530 Keywords : West Bohemia/Vogtland * earthquake swarms * mainshock-aftershock sequence * total seismic moment * statistical characteristics of earthquake activities Subject RIV: DC - Siesmology, Volcanology, Earth Structure Impact factor: 1.591, year: 2016

Earthquake cycle deformation and the Moho: Implications for the rheology of continental lithosphere

OpenAIRE

Wright, TJ; Elliott, JR; Wang, H; Ryder, I

2013-01-01

The last 20. years has seen a dramatic improvement in the quantity and quality of geodetic measurements of the earthquake loading cycle. In this paper we compile and review these observations and test whether crustal thickness exerts any control. We found 78 earthquake source mechanisms for continental earthquakes derived from satellite geodesy, 187 estimates of interseismic "locking depth", and 23 earthquakes (or sequences) for which postseismic deformation has been observed. Globally we est...

Search for Anisotropy Changes Associated with Two Large Earthquakes in Japan and New Zealand

Science.gov (United States)

Savage, M. K.; Graham, K.; Aoki, Y.; Arnold, R.

2017-12-01

Seismic anisotropy is often considered to be an indicator of stress in the crust, because the closure of cracks due to differential stress leads to waves polarized parallel to the cracks travelling faster than the orthogonal direction. Changes in shear wave splitting have been suggested to result from stress changes at volcanoes and earthquakes. However, the effects of mineral or structural alignment, and the difficulty of distinguishing between changes in anisotropy along an earthquake-station path from distinguishing changes in the path itself, have made such findings controversial. Two large earthquakes in 2016 provide unique datasets to test the use of shear wave splitting for measuring variations in stress because clusters of closely-spaced earthquakes occurred both before and after a mainshock. We use the automatic, objective splitting analysis code MFAST to speed process and minimize unwitting observer bias when determining time variations. The sequence of earthquakes related to the M=7.2 Japanese Kumamoto earthquake of 14 April 2016 includes both foreshocks, mainshocks and aftershocks. The sequence was recorded by the NIED permanent network, which already contributed background seismic anisotropy measurements in a previous study of anisotropy and stress in Kyushu. Preliminary measurements of shear wave splitting from earthquakes that occurred in 2016 show results at some stations that clearly differ from those of the earlier study. They also change between earthquakes recorded before and after the mainshock. Further work is under way to determine whether the changes are more likely due to changes in stress during the observation time, or due to spatial changes in anisotropy combined with changes in earthquake locations. Likewise, background seismicity and also foreshocks and aftershocks in the 2013 Cook Strait earthquake sequence including two M=6.5 earthquakes in 2013 in New Zealand were in the same general region as aftershocks of the M=7.8 Kaikoura

The 2008 Wenchuan Earthquake and the Rise and Fall of Earthquake Prediction in China

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, Q.; Wang, K.

2009-12-01

Regardless of the future potential of earthquake prediction, it is presently impractical to rely on it to mitigate earthquake disasters. The practical approach is to strengthen the resilience of our built environment to earthquakes based on hazard assessment. But this was not common understanding in China when the M 7.9 Wenchuan earthquake struck the Sichuan Province on 12 May 2008, claiming over 80,000 lives. In China, earthquake prediction is a government-sanctioned and law-regulated measure of disaster prevention. A sudden boom of the earthquake prediction program in 1966-1976 coincided with a succession of nine M > 7 damaging earthquakes in the densely populated region of the country and the political chaos of the Cultural Revolution. It climaxed with the prediction of the 1975 Haicheng earthquake, which was due mainly to an unusually pronounced foreshock sequence and the extraordinary readiness of some local officials to issue imminent warning and evacuation order. The Haicheng prediction was a success in practice and yielded useful lessons, but the experience cannot be applied to most other earthquakes and cultural environments. Since the disastrous Tangshan earthquake in 1976 that killed over 240,000 people, there have been two opposite trends in China: decreasing confidence in prediction and increasing emphasis on regulating construction design for earthquake resilience. In 1976, most of the seismic intensity XI areas of Tangshan were literally razed to the ground, but in 2008, many buildings in the intensity XI areas of Wenchuan did not collapse. Prediction did not save life in either of these events; the difference was made by construction standards. For regular buildings, there was no seismic design in Tangshan to resist any earthquake shaking in 1976, but limited seismic design was required for the Wenchuan area in 2008. Although the construction standards were later recognized to be too low, those buildings that met the standards suffered much less

Aftershocks of the 13 May 1993 Shumagin Alaska earthquake

Science.gov (United States)

Lu, Zhong; Wyss, Max; Tytgat, Guy; McNutt, Steve; Stihler, Scott

1994-01-01

The 13 May 1993 Ms 6.9 Shumagin earthquake had an aftershock sequence of 247 earthquakes with magnitudes greater than or equal to 1.5 by 1 June 1993. Of these aftershocks, 79 were located by using S-P travel times at the only two stations within 570 km of the mainshock epicenter. The rupture area inferred from the aftershocks is about 600 km2 and we estimate for the mainshock a mean fault displacement of 1.0 m and a 28 bar stress drop. The magnitude-frequency plots give a b-value for the aftershock sequence of about 0.4, which is low compared to the background value of approximately 0.8. The decay of the aftershock sequence followed the modified Omori law with a p-value of 0.79, which is also lower than the typical values of about 1.1 observed in Alaska. Both of these facts can be interpreted as indicating relatively high ambient stress in the Shumagin seismic gap and the possibility that the 13 May earthquake was a foreshock to a larger gap-filling event to occur within the next few years.

Interaction of the san jacinto and san andreas fault zones, southern california: triggered earthquake migration and coupled recurrence intervals.

Science.gov (United States)

Sanders, C O

1993-05-14

Two lines of evidence suggest that large earthquakes that occur on either the San Jacinto fault zone (SJFZ) or the San Andreas fault zone (SAFZ) may be triggered by large earthquakes that occur on the other. First, the great 1857 Fort Tejon earthquake in the SAFZ seems to have triggered a progressive sequence of earthquakes in the SJFZ. These earthquakes occurred at times and locations that are consistent with triggering by a strain pulse that propagated southeastward at a rate of 1.7 kilometers per year along the SJFZ after the 1857 earthquake. Second, the similarity in average recurrence intervals in the SJFZ (about 150 years) and in the Mojave segment of the SAFZ (132 years) suggests that large earthquakes in the northern SJFZ may stimulate the relatively frequent major earthquakes on the Mojave segment. Analysis of historic earthquake occurrence in the SJFZ suggests little likelihood of extended quiescence between earthquake sequences.

Accounting for orphaned aftershocks in the earthquake background rate

Science.gov (United States)

Van Der Elst, Nicholas

2017-01-01

Aftershocks often occur within cascades of triggered seismicity in which each generation of aftershocks triggers an additional generation, and so on. The rate of earthquakes in any particular generation follows Omori's law, going approximately as 1/t. This function decays rapidly, but is heavy-tailed, and aftershock sequences may persist for long times at a rate that is difficult to discriminate from background. It is likely that some apparently spontaneous earthquakes in the observational catalogue are orphaned aftershocks of long-past main shocks. To assess the relative proportion of orphaned aftershocks in the apparent background rate, I develop an extension of the ETAS model that explicitly includes the expected contribution of orphaned aftershocks to the apparent background rate. Applying this model to California, I find that the apparent background rate can be almost entirely attributed to orphaned aftershocks, depending on the assumed duration of an aftershock sequence. This implies an earthquake cascade with a branching ratio (the average number of directly triggered aftershocks per main shock) of nearly unity. In physical terms, this implies that very few earthquakes are completely isolated from the perturbing effects of other earthquakes within the fault system. Accounting for orphaned aftershocks in the ETAS model gives more accurate estimates of the true background rate, and more realistic expectations for long-term seismicity patterns.

Seismic response and damage detection analyses of an instrumented steel moment-framed building

Science.gov (United States)

Rodgers, J.E.; Celebi, M.

2006-01-01

The seismic performance of steel moment-framed buildings has been of particular interest since brittle fractures were discovered at the beam-column connections in a number of buildings following the M 6.7 Northridge earthquake of January 17, 1994. A case study of the seismic behavior of an extensively instrumented 13-story steel moment frame building located in the greater Los Angeles area of California is described herein. Response studies using frequency domain, joint time-frequency, system identification, and simple damage detection analyses are performed using an extensive strong motion dataset dating from 1971 to the present, supported by engineering drawings and results of postearthquake inspections. These studies show that the building's response is more complex than would be expected from its highly symmetrical geometry. The response is characterized by low damping in the fundamental mode, larger accelerations in the middle and lower stories than at the roof and base, extended periods of vibration after the cessation of strong input shaking, beating in the response, elliptical particle motion, and significant torsion during strong shaking at the top of the concrete piers which extend from the basement to the second floor. The analyses conducted indicate that the response of the structure was elastic in all recorded earthquakes to date, including Northridge. Also, several simple damage detection methods employed did not indicate any structural damage or connection fractures. The combination of a large, real structure and low instrumentation density precluded the application of many recently proposed advanced damage detection methods in this case study. Overall, however, the findings of this study are consistent with the limited code-compliant postearthquake intrusive inspections conducted after the Northridge earthquake, which found no connection fractures or other structural damage. ?? ASCE.

Roaming earthquakes in China highlight midcontinental hazards

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, Mian; Wang, Hui

2012-11-01

Before dawn on 28 July 1976, a magnitude (M) 7.8 earthquake struck Tangshan, a Chinese industrial city only 150 kilometers from Beijing (Figure 1a). In a brief moment, the earthquake destroyed the entire city and killed more than 242,000 people [Chen et al., 1988]. More than 30 years have passed, and upon the ruins a new Tangshan city has been built. However, the memory of devastation remains fresh. For this reason, a sequence of recent small earthquakes in the Tangshan region, including an M 4.8 event on 28 May and an M 4.0 event on 18 June 2012, has caused widespread concerns and heated debate in China. In the science community, the debate is whether the recent Tangshan earthquakes are the aftershocks of the 1976 earthquake despite the long gap in time since the main shock or harbingers of a new period of active seismicity in Tangshan and the rest of North China, where seismic activity seems to fluctuate between highs and lows over periods of a few decades [Ma, 1989].

Connecting slow earthquakes to huge earthquakes.

Science.gov (United States)

Obara, Kazushige; Kato, Aitaro

2016-07-15

Slow earthquakes are characterized by a wide spectrum of fault slip behaviors and seismic radiation patterns that differ from those of traditional earthquakes. However, slow earthquakes and huge megathrust earthquakes can have common slip mechanisms and are located in neighboring regions of the seismogenic zone. The frequent occurrence of slow earthquakes may help to reveal the physics underlying megathrust events as useful analogs. Slow earthquakes may function as stress meters because of their high sensitivity to stress changes in the seismogenic zone. Episodic stress transfer to megathrust source faults leads to an increased probability of triggering huge earthquakes if the adjacent locked region is critically loaded. Careful and precise monitoring of slow earthquakes may provide new information on the likelihood of impending huge earthquakes. Copyright © 2016, American Association for the Advancement of Science.

Assessment of earthquake-induced landslides hazard in El Salvador after the 2001 earthquakes using macroseismic analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Esposito, Eliana; Violante, Crescenzo; Giunta, Giuseppe; Ángel Hernández, Miguel

2016-04-01

Two strong earthquakes and a number of smaller aftershocks struck El Salvador in the year 2001. The January 13 2001 earthquake, Mw 7.7, occurred along the Cocos plate, 40 km off El Salvador southern coast. It resulted in about 1300 deaths and widespread damage, mainly due to massive landsliding. Two of the largest earthquake-induced landslides, Las Barioleras and Las Colinas (about 2x105 m3) produced major damage to buildings and infrastructures and 500 fatalities. A neighborhood in Santa Tecla, west of San Salvador, was destroyed. The February 13 2001 earthquake, Mw 6.5, occurred 40 km east-southeast of San Salvador. This earthquake caused over 300 fatalities and triggered several landslides over an area of 2,500 km2 mostly in poorly consolidated volcaniclastic deposits. The La Leona landslide (5-7x105 m3) caused 12 fatalities and extensive damage to the Panamerican Highway. Two very large landslides of 1.5 km3 and 12 km3 produced hazardous barrier lakes at Rio El Desague and Rio Jiboa, respectively. More than 16.000 landslides occurred throughout the country after both quakes; most of them occurred in pyroclastic deposits, with a volume less than 1x103m3. The present work aims to define the relationship between the above described earthquake intensity, size and areal distribution of induced landslides, as well as to refine the earthquake intensity in sparsely populated zones by using landslide effects. Landslides triggered by the 2001 seismic sequences provided useful indication for a realistic seismic hazard assessment, providing a basis for understanding, evaluating, and mapping the hazard and risk associated with earthquake-induced landslides.

A non-accelerating foreshock sequence followed by a short period of quiescence for a large inland earthquake

Science.gov (United States)

Doi, I.; Kawakata, H.

2012-12-01

Laboratory experiments [e.g. Scholz, 1968; Lockner et al., 1992] and field observations [e.g. Dodge et al., 1996; Helmstetter and Sornette, 2003; Bouchon et al., 2011] have elucidated part of foreshock behavior and mechanism, but we cannot identify foreshocks while they are occurring. Recently, in Japan, a dense seismic network, Hi-net (High Sensitivity Seismograph Network), provides continuous waveform records for regional seismic events. The data from this network enable us to analyze small foreshocks which occur on long period time scales prior to a major event. We have an opportunity to grasp the more detailed pattern of foreshock generation. Using continuous waveforms recorded at a seismic station located in close proximity to the epicenter of the 2008 Iwate-Miyagi inland earthquake, we conducted a detailed investigation of its foreshocks. In addition to the two officially recognized foreshocks, calculation of cross-correlation coefficients between the continuous waveform record and one of the previously recognized foreshocks revealed that 20 micro foreshocks occurred within the same general area. Our analysis also shows that all of these foreshocks occurred within the same general area relative to the main event. Over the two week period leading up to the Iwate-Miyagi earthquake, such foreshocks only occurred during the last 45 minutes, specifically over a 35 minute period followed by a 10 minute period of quiescence just before the mainshock. We found no evidence of acceleration of this foreshock sequence. Rock fracturing experiments using a constant loading rate or creep tests have consistently shown that the occurrence rate of small fracturing events (acoustic emissions; AEs) increases before the main rupture [Scholz, 1968]. This accelerative pattern of preceding events was recognized in case of the 1999 Izmit earthquake [Bouchon et al., 2011]. Large earthquakes however need not be accompanied by acceleration of foreshocks if a given fault's host rock

Preliminary report on aftershock sequence for earthquake of January 31, 1986, near Painesville, Ohio (time period: 2/1/86-2/10/86)

Science.gov (United States)

Borcherdt, R.D.

1986-01-01

A ten-station array of broad-band digital instrumentation (GEOS) was deployed by the U. S. Geological Survey with partial support provided by Electric Power Research Institute to record the aftershock sequence of the moderate (mb ~ 4.9) earthquake that occurred on January 31, 1986 (16:46:43 UTC) near Painesville, Ohio. The occurrence of the event has raised questions concerning possible contributory factors to the occurrence of the event and questions concerning the character of earthquake-induced high-frequency ground motions in the area. To aid in the timely resolution of the implications of some of these questions, this preliminary report provides copies of the ground motion time-histories and corresponding spectra for the six identified aftershocks and two events, thought to be quarry blasts, recorded as of February 10, 1986. Recording station locations and epicenter locations based on two preliminary estimates of local seismic velocity structure are provided.

Quantitative Mapping of Precursory Seismic Quiescence Before Large Aftershocks

Science.gov (United States)

Neukomm, S.; Wiemer, S.; Giardini, D.

2002-12-01

A relative decrease of aftershock activity before the occurrence of large aftershocks to M6+ mainshocks is one of only few earthquake precursors accepted for the IASPEI preliminary list of significant earthquake precursors. If one considers earthquake rate to be dependent on stressing rate, aftershocks sequences offer in fact an ideal environment to detect precursory quiescence before large earthquakes: The numerous aftershocks allow a much higher spatial and temporal resolution of transients in seismicity than possible with the average background rate of micro-earthquakes. Past studies of precursory quiescence before larger aftershocks, however, have largely been based on bulk value. The aim of this study is to map the temporal and spatial variability of activity rate within several rich aftershock sequences, and, possibly, exploit the results for improving real time probabilistic aftershock hazard assessment. We introduce a new algorithm based on fitting the modified Omori law to the aftershock sequences. At arbitrarily chosen grid points, the Omori parameters of the sub-samples containing all aftershock within 5 or 10 km of the node are estimated at time t. We calculate the number of aftershocks N +/- dN in the time interval t + dt using the relevant four Omori parameters (p, c and k) parameters and their corresponding standard deviations estimated using a bootstrap analysis. The difference between the forecasted and the observed number of aftershocks, normalized by the standard deviation of the forecast, is our estimator of rate change. The algorithm is tested on synthetic aftershock sequences containing artificial quiescences in order to calibrate the free parameters for optimal detection of precursory quiescence. We then perform our spatial and temporal mapping for several prominent Californian and Japanese aftershock sequences (Landers, Hector Mine, Northridge, Loma Prieta, Kobe, Western Tottori and Hokkaido). Preliminary results suggest that we cannot

Connecting slow earthquakes to huge earthquakes

OpenAIRE

Obara, Kazushige; Kato, Aitaro

2016-01-01

Slow earthquakes are characterized by a wide spectrum of fault slip behaviors and seismic radiation patterns that differ from those of traditional earthquakes. However, slow earthquakes and huge megathrust earthquakes can have common slip mechanisms and are located in neighboring regions of the seismogenic zone. The frequent occurrence of slow earthquakes may help to reveal the physics underlying megathrust events as useful analogs. Slow earthquakes may function as stress meters because of th...

Engineering models for catastrophe risk and their application to insurance

Science.gov (United States)

Dong, Weimin

2002-06-01

Internationally earthquake insurance, like all other insurance (fire, auto), adopted actuarial approach in the past, which is, based on historical loss experience to determine insurance rate. Due to the fact that earthquake is a rare event with severe consequence, irrational determination of premium rate and lack of understanding scale of potential loss led to many insurance companies insolvent after Northridge earthquake in 1994. Along with recent advances in earth science, computer science and engineering, computerized loss estimation methodologies based on first principles have been developed to the point that losses from destructive earthquakes can be quantified with reasonable accuracy using scientific modeling techniques. This paper intends to introduce how engineering models can assist to quantify earthquake risk and how insurance industry can use this information to manage their risk in the United States and abroad.

Earthquake Swarm Along the San Andreas Fault near Palmdale, Southern California, 1976 to 1977.

Science.gov (United States)

McNally, K C; Kanamori, H; Pechmann, J C; Fuis, G

1978-09-01

Between November 1976 and November 1977 a swarm of small earthquakes (local magnitude foreshock sequences, such as tight clustering of hypocenters and time-dependent rotations of stress axes inferred from focal mechanisms. However, because of our present lack of understanding of the processes that precede earthquake faulting, the implications of the swarm for future large earthquakes on the San Andreas fault are unknown.

A new Bayesian Inference-based Phase Associator for Earthquake Early Warning

Science.gov (United States)

Meier, Men-Andrin; Heaton, Thomas; Clinton, John; Wiemer, Stefan

2013-04-01

State of the art network-based Earthquake Early Warning (EEW) systems can provide warnings for large magnitude 7+ earthquakes. Although regions in the direct vicinity of the epicenter will not receive warnings prior to damaging shaking, real-time event characterization is available before the destructive S-wave arrival across much of the strongly affected region. In contrast, in the case of the more frequent medium size events, such as the devastating 1994 Mw6.7 Northridge, California, earthquake, providing timely warning to the smaller damage zone is more difficult. For such events the "blind zone" of current systems (e.g. the CISN ShakeAlert system in California) is similar in size to the area over which severe damage occurs. We propose a faster and more robust Bayesian inference-based event associator, that in contrast to the current standard associators (e.g. Earthworm Binder), is tailored to EEW and exploits information other than only phase arrival times. In particular, the associator potentially allows for reliable automated event association with as little as two observations, which, compared to the ShakeAlert system, would speed up the real-time characterizations by about ten seconds and thus reduce the blind zone area by up to 80%. We compile an extensive data set of regional and teleseismic earthquake and noise waveforms spanning a wide range of earthquake magnitudes and tectonic regimes. We pass these waveforms through a causal real-time filterbank with passband filters between 0.1 and 50Hz, and, updating every second from the event detection, extract the maximum amplitudes in each frequency band. Using this dataset, we define distributions of amplitude maxima in each passband as a function of epicentral distance and magnitude. For the real-time data, we pass incoming broadband and strong motion waveforms through the same filterbank and extract an evolving set of maximum amplitudes in each passband. We use the maximum amplitude distributions to check

A rare moderate‐sized (Mw 4.9) earthquake in Kansas: Rupture process of the Milan, Kansas, earthquake of 12 November 2014 and its relationship to fluid injection

Science.gov (United States)

Choy, George; Rubinstein, Justin L.; Yeck, William; McNamara, Daniel E.; Mueller, Charles; Boyd, Oliver

2016-01-01

The largest recorded earthquake in Kansas occurred northeast of Milan on 12 November 2014 (Mw 4.9) in a region previously devoid of significant seismic activity. Applying multistation processing to data from local stations, we are able to detail the rupture process and rupture geometry of the mainshock, identify the causative fault plane, and delineate the expansion and extent of the subsequent seismic activity. The earthquake followed rapid increases of fluid injection by multiple wastewater injection wells in the vicinity of the fault. The source parameters and behavior of the Milan earthquake and foreshock–aftershock sequence are similar to characteristics of other earthquakes induced by wastewater injection into permeable formations overlying crystalline basement. This earthquake also provides an opportunity to test the empirical relation that uses felt area to estimate moment magnitude for historical earthquakes for Kansas.

Constraining the magnitude of the largest event in a foreshock-main shock-aftershock sequence

Science.gov (United States)

Shcherbakov, Robert; Zhuang, Jiancang; Ogata, Yosihiko

2018-01-01

Extreme value statistics and Bayesian methods are used to constrain the magnitudes of the largest expected earthquakes in a sequence governed by the parametric time-dependent occurrence rate and frequency-magnitude statistics. The Bayesian predictive distribution for the magnitude of the largest event in a sequence is derived. Two types of sequences are considered, that is, the classical aftershock sequences generated by large main shocks and the aftershocks generated by large foreshocks preceding a main shock. For the former sequences, the early aftershocks during a training time interval are used to constrain the magnitude of the future extreme event during the forecasting time interval. For the latter sequences, the earthquakes preceding the main shock are used to constrain the magnitudes of the subsequent extreme events including the main shock. The analysis is applied retrospectively to past prominent earthquake sequences.

Earthquake activity along the Himalayan orogenic belt

Science.gov (United States)

Bai, L.; Mori, J. J.

2017-12-01

The collision between the Indian and Eurasian plates formed the Himalayas, the largest orogenic belt on the Earth. The entire region accommodates shallow earthquakes, while intermediate-depth earthquakes are concentrated at the eastern and western Himalayan syntaxis. Here we investigate the focal depths, fault plane solutions, and source rupture process for three earthquake sequences, which are located at the western, central and eastern regions of the Himalayan orogenic belt. The Pamir-Hindu Kush region is located at the western Himalayan syntaxis and is characterized by extreme shortening of the upper crust and strong interaction of various layers of the lithosphere. Many shallow earthquakes occur on the Main Pamir Thrust at focal depths shallower than 20 km, while intermediate-deep earthquakes are mostly located below 75 km. Large intermediate-depth earthquakes occur frequently at the western Himalayan syntaxis about every 10 years on average. The 2015 Nepal earthquake is located in the central Himalayas. It is a typical megathrust earthquake that occurred on the shallow portion of the Main Himalayan Thrust (MHT). Many of the aftershocks are located above the MHT and illuminate faulting structures in the hanging wall with dip angles that are steeper than the MHT. These observations provide new constraints on the collision and uplift processes for the Himalaya orogenic belt. The Indo-Burma region is located south of the eastern Himalayan syntaxis, where the strike of the plate boundary suddenly changes from nearly east-west at the Himalayas to nearly north-south at the Burma Arc. The Burma arc subduction zone is a typical oblique plate convergence zone. The eastern boundary is the north-south striking dextral Sagaing fault, which hosts many shallow earthquakes with focal depth less than 25 km. In contrast, intermediate-depth earthquakes along the subduction zone reflect east-west trending reverse faulting.

The smart cluster method. Adaptive earthquake cluster identification and analysis in strong seismic regions

Science.gov (United States)

Schaefer, Andreas M.; Daniell, James E.; Wenzel, Friedemann

2017-07-01

Earthquake clustering is an essential part of almost any statistical analysis of spatial and temporal properties of seismic activity. The nature of earthquake clusters and subsequent declustering of earthquake catalogues plays a crucial role in determining the magnitude-dependent earthquake return period and its respective spatial variation for probabilistic seismic hazard assessment. This study introduces the Smart Cluster Method (SCM), a new methodology to identify earthquake clusters, which uses an adaptive point process for spatio-temporal cluster identification. It utilises the magnitude-dependent spatio-temporal earthquake density to adjust the search properties, subsequently analyses the identified clusters to determine directional variation and adjusts its search space with respect to directional properties. In the case of rapid subsequent ruptures like the 1992 Landers sequence or the 2010-2011 Darfield-Christchurch sequence, a reclassification procedure is applied to disassemble subsequent ruptures using near-field searches, nearest neighbour classification and temporal splitting. The method is capable of identifying and classifying earthquake clusters in space and time. It has been tested and validated using earthquake data from California and New Zealand. A total of more than 1500 clusters have been found in both regions since 1980 with M m i n = 2.0. Utilising the knowledge of cluster classification, the method has been adjusted to provide an earthquake declustering algorithm, which has been compared to existing methods. Its performance is comparable to established methodologies. The analysis of earthquake clustering statistics lead to various new and updated correlation functions, e.g. for ratios between mainshock and strongest aftershock and general aftershock activity metrics.

Long-Delayed Aftershocks in New Zealand and the 2016 M7.8 Kaikoura Earthquake

Science.gov (United States)

Shebalin, P.; Baranov, S.

2017-10-01

We study aftershock sequences of six major earthquakes in New Zealand, including the 2016 M7.8 Kaikaoura and 2016 M7.1 North Island earthquakes. For Kaikaoura earthquake, we assess the expected number of long-delayed large aftershocks of M5+ and M5.5+ in two periods, 0.5 and 3 years after the main shocks, using 75 days of available data. We compare results with obtained for other sequences using same 75-days period. We estimate the errors by considering a set of magnitude thresholds and corresponding periods of data completeness and consistency. To avoid overestimation of the expected rates of large aftershocks, we presume a break of slope of the magnitude-frequency relation in the aftershock sequences, and compare two models, with and without the break of slope. Comparing estimations to the actual number of long-delayed large aftershocks, we observe, in general, a significant underestimation of their expected number. We can suppose that the long-delayed aftershocks may reflect larger-scale processes, including interaction of faults, that complement an isolated relaxation process. In the spirit of this hypothesis, we search for symptoms of the capacity of the aftershock zone to generate large events months after the major earthquake. We adapt an algorithm EAST, studying statistics of early aftershocks, to the case of secondary aftershocks within aftershock sequences of major earthquakes. In retrospective application to the considered cases, the algorithm demonstrates an ability to detect in advance long-delayed aftershocks both in time and space domains. Application of the EAST algorithm to the 2016 M7.8 Kaikoura earthquake zone indicates that the most likely area for a delayed aftershock of M5.5+ or M6+ is at the northern end of the zone in Cook Strait.

Performance of Earthquake Early Warning Systems during the Major Events of the 2016-2017 Central Italy Seismic Sequence.

Science.gov (United States)

Festa, G.; Picozzi, M.; Alessandro, C.; Colombelli, S.; Cattaneo, M.; Chiaraluce, L.; Elia, L.; Martino, C.; Marzorati, S.; Supino, M.; Zollo, A.

2017-12-01

Earthquake early warning systems (EEWS) are systems nowadays contributing to the seismic risk mitigation actions, both in terms of losses and societal resilience, by issuing an alert promptly after the earthquake origin and before the ground shaking impacts the targets to be protected. EEWS systems can be grouped in two main classes: network based and stand-alone systems. Network based EEWS make use of dense seismic networks surrounding the fault (e.g. Near Fault Observatory; NFO) generating the event. The rapid processing of the P-wave early portion allows for the location and magnitude estimation of the event then used to predict the shaking through ground motion prediction equations. Stand-alone systems instead analyze the early P-wave signal to predict the ground shaking carried by the late S or surface waves, through empirically calibrated scaling relationships, at the recording site itself. We compared the network-based (PRESTo, PRobabilistic and Evolutionary early warning SysTem, www.prestoews.org, Satriano et al., 2011) and the stand-alone (SAVE, on-Site-Alert-leVEl, Caruso et al., 2017) systems, by analyzing their performance during the 2016-2017 Central Italy sequence. We analyzed 9 earthquakes having magnitude 5.0 security actions. PRESTo also evaluated the accuracy of location and magnitude. Both systems well predict the ground shaking nearby the event source, with a success rate around 90% within the potential damage zone. The lead-time is significantly larger for the network based system, increasing to more than 10s at 40 km from the event epicentre. The stand-alone system better performs in the near-source region showing a positive albeit small lead-time (operational in Italy, based on the available acceleration networks, by improving the capability of reducing the lead-time related to data telemetry.

Time Separation Between Events in a Sequence: a Regional Property?

Science.gov (United States)

Muirwood, R.; Fitzenz, D. D.

2013-12-01

Earthquake sequences are loosely defined as events occurring too closely in time and space to appear unrelated. Depending on the declustering method, several, all, or no event(s) after the first large event might be recognized as independent mainshocks. It can therefore be argued that a probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA, traditionally dealing with mainshocks only) might already include the ground shaking effects of such sequences. Alternatively all but the largest event could be classified as an ';aftershock' and removed from the earthquake catalog. While in PSHA the question is only whether to keep or remove the events from the catalog, for Risk Management purposes, the community response to the earthquakes, as well as insurance risk transfer mechanisms, can be profoundly affected by the actual timing of events in such a sequence. In particular the repetition of damaging earthquakes over a period of weeks to months can lead to businesses closing and families evacuating from the region (as happened in Christchurch, New Zealand in 2011). Buildings that are damaged in the first earthquake may go on to be damaged again, even while they are being repaired. Insurance also functions around a set of critical timeframes - including the definition of a single 'event loss' for reinsurance recoveries within the 192 hour ';hours clause', the 6-18 month pace at which insurance claims are settled, and the annual renewal of insurance and reinsurance contracts. We show how temporal aspects of earthquake sequences need to be taken into account within models for Risk Management, and what time separation between events are most sensitive, both in terms of the modeled disruptions to lifelines and business activity as well as in the losses to different parties (such as insureds, insurers and reinsurers). We also explore the time separation between all events and between loss causing events for a collection of sequences from across the world and we point to the need to

From Multi-Sensors Observations Towards Cross-Disciplinary Study of Pre-Earthquake Signals. What have We Learned from the Tohoku Earthquake?

Science.gov (United States)

Ouzounov, D.; Pulinets, S.; Papadopoulos, G.; Kunitsyn, V.; Nesterov, I.; Hayakawa, M.; Mogi, K.; Hattori, K.; Kafatos, M.; Taylor, P.

2012-01-01

The lessons we have learned from the Great Tohoku EQ (Japan, 2011) how this knowledge will affect our future observation and analysis is the main focus of this presentation.We present multi-sensors observations and multidisciplinary research in our investigation of phenomena preceding major earthquakes. These observations revealed the existence of atmospheric and ionospheric phenomena occurring prior to theM9.0 Tohoku earthquake of March 11, 2011, which indicates s new evidence of a distinct coupling between the lithosphere and atmosphere/ionosphere, as related to underlying tectonic activity. Similar results have been reported before the catastrophic events in Chile (M8.8, 2010), Italy (M6.3, 2009) and Sumatra (M9.3, 2004). For the Tohoku earthquake, our analysis shows a synergy between several independent observations characterizing the state of the lithosphere /atmosphere coupling several days before the onset of the earthquakes, namely: (i) Foreshock sequence change (rate, space and time); (ii) Outgoing Long wave Radiation (OLR) measured at the top of the atmosphere; and (iii) Anomalous variations of ionospheric parameters revealed by multi-sensors observations. We are presenting a cross-disciplinary analysis of the observed pre-earthquake anomalies and will discuss current research in the detection of these signals in Japan. We expect that our analysis will shed light on the underlying physics of pre-earthquake signals associated with some of the largest earthquake events

Along-strike Variations in the Himalayas Illuminated by the Aftershock Sequence of the 2015 Mw 7.8 Gorkha Earthquake Using the NAMASTE Local Seismic Network

Science.gov (United States)

Mendoza, M.; Ghosh, A.; Karplus, M. S.; Nabelek, J.; Sapkota, S. N.; Adhikari, L. B.; Klemperer, S. L.; Velasco, A. A.

2016-12-01

As a result of the 2015 Mw 7.8 Gorkha earthquake, more than 8,000 people were killed from a combination of infrastructure failure and triggered landslides. This earthquake produced 4 m of peak co-seismic slip as the fault ruptured 130 km east under densely populated cities, such as Kathmandu. To understand earthquake dynamics in this part of the Himalayas and help mitigate similar future calamities by the next destructive event, it is imperative to study earthquake activities in detail and improve our understanding of the source and structural complexities. In response to the Gorkha event, multiple institutions developed and deployed a 10-month long dense seismic network called NAMASTE. It blanketed a 27,650 km2 area, mainly covering the rupture area of the Gorkha earthquake, in order to capture the dynamic sequence of aftershock behavior. The network consisted of a mix of 45 broadband, short-period, and strong motion sensors, with an average spacing of 20 km. From the first 6 months of data, starting approximately 1.5 after the mainshock, we develop a robust catalog containing over 3,000 precise earthquake locations, and local magnitudes that range between 0.3 and 4.9. The catalog has a magnitude of completeness of 1.5, and an overall low b-value of 0.78. Using the HypoDD algorithm, we relocate earthquake hypocenters with high precision, and thus illustrate the fault geometry down to depths of 25 km where we infer the location of the gently-dipping Main Frontal Thrust (MFT). Above the MFT, the aftershocks illuminate complex structure produced by relatively steeply dipping faults. Interestingly, we observe sharp along-strike change in the seismicity pattern. The eastern part of the aftershock area is significantly more active than the western part. The change in seismicity may reflect structural and/or frictional lateral heterogeneity in this part of the Himalayan fault system. Such along-strike variations play an important role in rupture complexities and

Space-time behavior of continental intraplate earthquakes and implications for hazard assessment in China and the Central U.S.

Science.gov (United States)

Stein, Seth; Liu, Mian; Luo, Gang; Wang, Hui

2014-05-01

Earthquakes in midcontinents and those at plate boundaries behave quite differently in space and time, owing to the geometry of faults and the rate at which they are loaded. Faults at plate boundaries are loaded at constant rates by steady relative plate motion. Consequently, earthquakes concentrate along the plate boundary faults, and show quasi-periodic occurrences, although the actual temporal patterns are often complicated. However, in midcontinents, the tectonic loading is shared by a complex system of interacting faults spread over a large region, such that a large earthquake on one fault could increase the loading rates on remote faults in the system. Because the low tectonic loading rate is shared by many faults in midcontinents, individual faults may remain dormant for a long time and then become active for a short period. The resulting earthquakes are therefore episodic and spatially migrating. These effects can be seen in many areas, with a prime example being a 2000-year record from North China, which shows migration of large earthquakes between fault systems spread over a large region such that no large earthquakes rupture the same fault segment twice. Because seismic activity within mid-continents is usually much lower than that along plate boundary zones, even small earthquakes can cause widespread concerns, especially when these events occur in the source regions of previous large earthquakes. However, these small earthquakes may be aftershocks that continue for decades or even longer, because aftershock sequences often last much longer in midcontinents where tectonic loading is slow, than at plate boundaries. The recent seismicity in the Tangshan region in North China is likely aftershocks of the 1976 M7.8 Tangshan earthquake. Similarly, current seismicity in the New Madrid seismic zone in central U.S. appears to be aftershocks of a cluster of M ~7.0 events in 1811-1812. These large events and similar events in the past millennium release strain

Non-Stationary Modelling and Simulation of Near-Source Earthquake Ground Motion

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Skjærbæk, P. S.; Kirkegaard, Poul Henning; Fouskitakis, G. N.

1997-01-01

This paper is concerned with modelling and simulation of near-source earthquake ground motion. Recent studies have revealed that these motions show heavy non-stationary behaviour with very low frequencies dominating parts of the earthquake sequence. Modeling and simulation of this behaviour...... by an epicentral distance of 16 km and measured during the 1979 Imperial Valley earthquake in California (U .S .A.). The results of the study indicate that while all three approaches can successfully predict near-source ground motions, the Neural Network based one gives somewhat poorer simulation results....

Non-Stationary Modelling and Simulation of Near-Source Earthquake Ground Motion

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Skjærbæk, P. S.; Kirkegaard, Poul Henning; Fouskitakis, G. N.

This paper is concerned with modelling and simulation of near-source earthquake ground motion. Recent studies have revealed that these motions show heavy non-stationary behaviour with very low frequencies dominating parts of the earthquake sequence. Modelling and simulation of this behaviour...... by an epicentral distance of 16 km and measured during the 1979 Imperial valley earthquake in California (USA). The results of the study indicate that while all three approaches can succesfully predict near-source ground motions, the Neural Network based one gives somewhat poorer simulation results....

Earthquake Tests of Reinforced Concrete Frames

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Skjærbæk, P. S.; Nielsen, Søren R.K.; Kirkegaard, Poul Henning

1997-01-01

the equilibrium state. Afterwards the test structure is subjected to the three strong ground motion oscillations where the two first sequences are followed by a free decay test. No free decay test was performed after the third earthquake due to collapse of the test structure during the third strong motion...

Earthquake Tests of Reinforced Concrete Frames

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Skjærbæk, P. S.; Nielsen, Søren R.K.; Kirkegaard, Poul Henning

1996-01-01

the equilibrium state. Afterwards the test structure is subjected to the three strong ground motion oscillations where the two first sequences are followed by a free decay test. No free decay test was performed after the third earthquake due to collapse of the test structure during the third strong motion...

[Comment on “Should Memphis build for California's earthquakes?”] from S.E. Hough

Science.gov (United States)

Hough, Susan E.

The recent article by Seth Stein, Joseph Tomasello, and Andrew Newman raised thought-provoking questions about one of the most vexing open issues in hazard assessment in the United States: the hazard posed by ostensibly infrequent, large, mid-continental earthquakes. Many of the technical issues raised by this article are addressed by A. D. Frankel in the accompanying comment. I concur with this, and will only address and/or elaborate on a few additional issues here: (1) Detailed paleoseismic investigations have shown that the New Madrid region experienced sequences of large earthquakes around 900 and 1450 A.D.in addition to the historic events in 1811-1812. With a repeat time on the order of 400-500 years, these cannot be considered infrequent events. Paleoseismic investigations also reveal evidence that the prehistoric “events” were also sequences of two to three large earthquakes with a similar overall distribution of liquefaction in the greater New Madrid region as produced by the 1811-1812 sequence [Tuttle et al., 2002]. And if, as evidence suggests, the zone produces characteristic earthquakes, one will not see a commensurate rate of moderate events, as would be the case if seismicity followed the Gutenburg-Richter distribution.

Implications of fault constitutive properties for earthquake prediction.

Science.gov (United States)

Dieterich, J H; Kilgore, B

1996-04-30

The rate- and state-dependent constitutive formulation for fault slip characterizes an exceptional variety of materials over a wide range of sliding conditions. This formulation provides a unified representation of diverse sliding phenomena including slip weakening over a characteristic sliding distance Dc, apparent fracture energy at a rupture front, time-dependent healing after rapid slip, and various other transient and slip rate effects. Laboratory observations and theoretical models both indicate that earthquake nucleation is accompanied by long intervals of accelerating slip. Strains from the nucleation process on buried faults generally could not be detected if laboratory values of Dc apply to faults in nature. However, scaling of Dc is presently an open question and the possibility exists that measurable premonitory creep may precede some earthquakes. Earthquake activity is modeled as a sequence of earthquake nucleation events. In this model, earthquake clustering arises from sensitivity of nucleation times to the stress changes induced by prior earthquakes. The model gives the characteristic Omori aftershock decay law and assigns physical interpretation to aftershock parameters. The seismicity formulation predicts large changes of earthquake probabilities result from stress changes. Two mechanisms for foreshocks are proposed that describe observed frequency of occurrence of foreshock-mainshock pairs by time and magnitude. With the first mechanism, foreshocks represent a manifestation of earthquake clustering in which the stress change at the time of the foreshock increases the probability of earthquakes at all magnitudes including the eventual mainshock. With the second model, accelerating fault slip on the mainshock nucleation zone triggers foreshocks.

Navy Seabees: Versatile Instruments of Power Projection

Science.gov (United States)

2013-04-16

Bay Area, Hurricane Hugo in Florida, Northridge Earthquake in Southern California, Hurricane Andrew in Homestead Florida, and many other significant...to the Hurricane Katrina disaster in between deployments from Iraq and Afghanistan in 2005. 1 Seabees cleared debris from roads and harbors...normal capacity. During the biggest and costliest natural disaster in recent history, Hurricane Katrina demonstrated the difficulty of local and federal

Overview of the critical disaster management challenges faced during Van 2011 earthquakes.

Science.gov (United States)

Tolon, Mert; Yazgan, Ufuk; Ural, Derin N; Goss, Kay C

2014-01-01

On October 23, 2011, a M7.2 earthquake caused damage in a widespread area in the Van province located in eastern Turkey. This strong earthquake was followed by a M5.7 earthquake on November 9, 2011. This sequence of damaging earthquakes led to 644 fatalities. The management during and after these earthquake disaster imposed many critical challenges. In this article, an overview of these challenges is presented based on the observations by the authors in the aftermath of this disaster. This article presents the characteristics of 2011 Van earthquakes. Afterward, the key information related to the four main phases (ie, preparedness, mitigation, response, and recovery) of the disaster in Van is presented. The potential strategies that can be taken to improve the disaster management practice are identified, and a set of recommendations are proposed to improve the existing situation.

Statistical properties of earthquakes clustering

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

A. Vecchio

2008-04-01

Full Text Available Often in nature the temporal distribution of inhomogeneous stochastic point processes can be modeled as a realization of renewal Poisson processes with a variable rate. Here we investigate one of the classical examples, namely, the temporal distribution of earthquakes. We show that this process strongly departs from a Poisson statistics for both catalogue and sequence data sets. This indicate the presence of correlations in the system probably related to the stressing perturbation characterizing the seismicity in the area under analysis. As shown by this analysis, the catalogues, at variance with sequences, show common statistical properties.

Global risk of big earthquakes has not recently increased.

Science.gov (United States)

Shearer, Peter M; Stark, Philip B

2012-01-17

The recent elevated rate of large earthquakes has fueled concern that the underlying global rate of earthquake activity has increased, which would have important implications for assessments of seismic hazard and our understanding of how faults interact. We examine the timing of large (magnitude M≥7) earthquakes from 1900 to the present, after removing local clustering related to aftershocks. The global rate of M≥8 earthquakes has been at a record high roughly since 2004, but rates have been almost as high before, and the rate of smaller earthquakes is close to its historical average. Some features of the global catalog are improbable in retrospect, but so are some features of most random sequences--if the features are selected after looking at the data. For a variety of magnitude cutoffs and three statistical tests, the global catalog, with local clusters removed, is not distinguishable from a homogeneous Poisson process. Moreover, no plausible physical mechanism predicts real changes in the underlying global rate of large events. Together these facts suggest that the global risk of large earthquakes is no higher today than it has been in the past.

Permeability, storage and hydraulic diffusivity controlled by earthquakes

Science.gov (United States)

Brodsky, E. E.; Fulton, P. M.; Xue, L.

2016-12-01

Earthquakes can increase permeability in fractured rocks. In the farfield, such permeability increases are attributed to seismic waves and can last for months after the initial earthquake. Laboratory studies suggest that unclogging of fractures by the transient flow driven by seismic waves is a viable mechanism. These dynamic permeability increases may contribute to permeability enhancement in the seismic clouds accompanying hydraulic fracking. Permeability enhancement by seismic waves could potentially be engineered and the experiments suggest the process will be most effective at a preferred frequency. We have recently observed similar processes inside active fault zones after major earthquakes. A borehole observatory in the fault that generated the M9.0 2011 Tohoku earthquake reveals a sequence of temperature pulses during the secondary aftershock sequence of an M7.3 aftershock. The pulses are attributed to fluid advection by a flow through a zone of transiently increased permeability. Directly after the M7.3 earthquake, the newly damaged fault zone is highly susceptible to further permeability enhancement, but ultimately heals within a month and becomes no longer as sensitive. The observation suggests that the newly damaged fault zone is more prone to fluid pulsing than would be expected based on the long-term permeability structure. Even longer term healing is seen inside the fault zone of the 2008 M7.9 Wenchuan earthquake. The competition between damage and healing (or clogging and unclogging) results in dynamically controlled permeability, storage and hydraulic diffusivity. Recent measurements of in situ fault zone architecture at the 1-10 meter scale suggest that active fault zones often have hydraulic diffusivities near 10-2 m2/s. This uniformity is true even within the damage zone of the San Andreas fault where permeability and storage increases balance each other to achieve this value of diffusivity over a 400 m wide region. We speculate that fault zones

Modeling impact damper in building frames using GAP element

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Seyed Mehdi Zahrai

2017-05-01

Full Text Available Main effective factor in impact dampers to control vibration is to create disruption in structural oscillation amplitude using small forces induced by auxiliary masses to reduce strong vibrations. So far, modeling of the impact damper has been conducted solely through MATLAB software. Naturally, the functional aspects of this software are limited in research and development aspects compared to the common programs such as SAP2000 and ETABS. In this paper, a Single Degree of Freedom System, SDOF, is first modeled under harmonic loading with maximum amplitude of 0.4g in SAP2000 program. Then, the results are compared with numerical model. In this way, the proposed model is validated and the SDOF system equipped with an impact damper is investigated under the Kobe and Northridge earthquake records using SAP2000 model. Based on obtained results, the system equipped with an impact damper under the Kobe and Northridge earthquakes for structures considered in this study would have better seismic performance in which maximum displacements are reduced 6% and 33% respectively. Finally, impact dampers are modeled in a 4-story building structure with concentric bracing leading to 12% reduction in story drifts.

Do I Really Sound Like That? Communicating Earthquake Science Following Significant Earthquakes at the NEIC

Science.gov (United States)

Hayes, G. P.; Earle, P. S.; Benz, H.; Wald, D. J.; Yeck, W. L.

2017-12-01

The U.S. Geological Survey's National Earthquake Information Center (NEIC) responds to about 160 magnitude 6.0 and larger earthquakes every year and is regularly inundated with information requests following earthquakes that cause significant impact. These requests often start within minutes after the shaking occurs and come from a wide user base including the general public, media, emergency managers, and government officials. Over the past several years, the NEIC's earthquake response has evolved its communications strategy to meet the changing needs of users and the evolving media landscape. The NEIC produces a cascade of products starting with basic hypocentral parameters and culminating with estimates of fatalities and economic loss. We speed the delivery of content by prepositioning and automatically generating products such as, aftershock plots, regional tectonic summaries, maps of historical seismicity, and event summary posters. Our goal is to have information immediately available so we can quickly address the response needs of a particular event or sequence. This information is distributed to hundreds of thousands of users through social media, email alerts, programmatic data feeds, and webpages. Many of our products are included in event summary posters that can be downloaded and printed for local display. After significant earthquakes, keeping up with direct inquiries and interview requests from TV, radio, and print reports is always challenging. The NEIC works with the USGS Office of Communications and the USGS Science Information Services to organize and respond to these requests. Written executive summaries reports are produced and distributed to USGS personnel and collaborators throughout the country. These reports are updated during the response to keep our message consistent and information up to date. This presentation will focus on communications during NEIC's rapid earthquake response but will also touch on the broader USGS traditional and

Earthquake swarms and the semidiurnal solid earth tide

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Klein, F W

1976-01-01

Several correlations between peak earthquake activity during swarms and the phase and stress orientation of the calculated solid earth tide are described. The events correlating with the tide are clusters of swarm earthquakes. Swarm clusters from many sequences recorded over several years are used. Significant tidal correlations (which have less than a 5% chance of being observed if earthquakes were random) are found in the Reykjanes Peninsula in Iceland, the central Mid-Atlantic Ridge, the Imperial Valley and northern Gulf of California, and larger (m/sub b/ greater than or equal to 5.0) aftershocks of the 1965 Rat Islands earthquake. In addition, sets of larger single earthquakes on Atlantic and north-east Pacific fracture zones are significantly correlated with the calculated solid tide. No tidal correlation, however, could be found for the Matsushiro Japan swarm of 1965 to 1967. The earthquake-tide correlations other than those of the Reykjanes Peninsula and Mid-Atlantic Ridge can be interpreted as triggering caused by enhancement of the tectonic stress by tidal stress, i.e. the alignment of fault and tidal principal stresses. All tidal correlations except in the Aleutians are associated with oceanic rifts or their landward extensions. If lithospheric plates are decoupled at active rifts, then tidal stresses channeled along the lithospheric stress guide may be concentrated at ridge-type plate boundaries. Tidal triggering of earthquakes at rifts may reflect this possible amplification of tidal strains in the weakened lithosphere at ridges. 25 figures, 2 tables.

Foreshocks and aftershocks of the Great 1857 California earthquake

Science.gov (United States)

Meltzner, A.J.; Wald, D.J.

1999-01-01

The San Andreas fault is the longest fault in California and one of the longest strike-slip faults anywhere in the world, yet we know little about many aspects of its behavior before, during, and after large earthquakes. We conducted a study to locate and to estimate magnitudes for the largest foreshocks and aftershocks of the 1857 M 7.9 Fort Tejon earthquake on the central and southern segments of the fault. We began by searching archived first-hand accounts from 1857 through 1862, by grouping felt reports temporally, and by assigning modified Mercalli intensities to each site. We then used a modified form of the grid-search algorithm of Bakum and Wentworth, derived from empirical analysis of modern earthquakes, to find the location and magnitude most consistent with the assigned intensities for each of the largest events. The result confirms a conclusion of Sieh that at least two foreshocks ('dawn' and 'sunrise') located on or near the Parkfield segment of the San Andreas fault preceded the mainshock. We estimate their magnitudes to be M ~ 6.1 and M ~ 5.6, respectively. The aftershock rate was below average but within one standard deviation of the number of aftershocks expected based on statistics of modern southern California mainshock-aftershock sequences. The aftershocks included two significant events during the first eight days of the sequence, with magnitudes M ~ 6.25 and M ~ 6.7, near the southern half of the rupture; later aftershocks included a M ~ 6 event near San Bernardino in December 1858 and a M ~ 6.3 event near the Parkfield segment in April 1860. From earthquake logs at Fort Tejon, we conclude that the aftershock sequence lasted a minimum of 3.75 years.

Using Earthquake Analysis to Expand the Oklahoma Fault Database

Science.gov (United States)

Chang, J. C.; Evans, S. C.; Walter, J. I.

2017-12-01

The Oklahoma Geological Survey (OGS) is compiling a comprehensive Oklahoma Fault Database (OFD), which includes faults mapped in OGS publications, university thesis maps, and industry-contributed shapefiles. The OFD includes nearly 20,000 fault segments, but the work is far from complete. The OGS plans on incorporating other sources of data into the OFD, such as new faults from earthquake sequence analyses, geologic field mapping, active-source seismic surveys, and potential fields modeling. A comparison of Oklahoma seismicity and the OFD reveals that earthquakes in the state appear to nucleate on mostly unmapped or unknown faults. Here, we present faults derived from earthquake sequence analyses. From 2015 to present, there has been a five-fold increase in realtime seismic stations in Oklahoma, which has greatly expanded and densified the state's seismic network. The current seismic network not only improves our threshold for locating weaker earthquakes, but also allows us to better constrain focal plane solutions (FPS) from first motion analyses. Using nodal planes from the FPS, HypoDD relocation, and historic seismic data, we can elucidate these previously unmapped seismogenic faults. As the OFD is a primary resource for various scientific investigations, the inclusion of seismogenic faults improves further derivative studies, particularly with respect to seismic hazards. Our primal focus is on four areas of interest, which have had M5+ earthquakes in recent Oklahoma history: Pawnee (M5.8), Prague (M5.7), Fairview (M5.1), and Cushing (M5.0). Subsequent areas of interest will include seismically active data-rich areas, such as the central and northcentral parts of the state.

Correlations between solid tides and worldwide earthquakes MS ≥ 7.0 since 1900

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Q. H. Xu

2012-03-01

Full Text Available Most studies on the correlations between earthquakes and solid tides mainly concluded the syzygies (i.e. new or full moons of each lunar cycle have more earthquakes than other days in the month. We show a correlation between the aftershock sequence of the ML = 6.3 Christchurch, New Zealand, earthquake and the diurnal solid tide. Ms ≥ 7 earthquakes worldwide since 1900 are more likely to occur during the 0°, 90°, 180° or 270° phases (i.e. earthquake-prone phases of the semidiurnal solid earth tidal curve (M2. Thus, the semidiurnal solid tides triggers earthquakes. However, the long-term triggering effect of the lunar periodicity is uncertain. This proposal is helpful in defining possible origin times of aftershocks several days after a mainshock and can be used for warning of subsequent larger shocks.

Observations of static Coulomb stress triggering of the November 2011 M5.7 Oklahoma earthquake sequence

Science.gov (United States)

Sumy, Danielle F.; Cochran, Elizabeth S.; Keranen, Katie M.; Wei, Maya; Abers, Geoffrey A.

2014-01-01

In November 2011, a M5.0 earthquake occurred less than a day before a M5.7 earthquake near Prague, Oklahoma, which may have promoted failure of the mainshock and thousands of aftershocks along the Wilzetta fault, including a M5.0 aftershock. The M5.0 foreshock occurred in close proximity to active fluid injection wells; fluid injection can cause a buildup of pore fluid pressure, decrease the fault strength, and may induce earthquakes. Keranen et al. [2013] links the M5.0 foreshock with fluid injection, but the relationship between the foreshock and successive events has not been investigated. Here we examine the role of coseismic Coulomb stress transfer on earthquakes that follow the M5.0 foreshock, including the M5.7 mainshock. We resolve the static Coulomb stress change onto the focal mechanism nodal plane that is most consistent with the rupture geometry of the three M ≥ 5.0 earthquakes, as well as specified receiver fault planes that reflect the regional stress orientation. We find that Coulomb stress is increased, e.g., fault failure is promoted, on the nodal planes of ~60% of the events that have focal mechanism solutions, and more specifically, that the M5.0 foreshock promoted failure on the rupture plane of the M5.7 mainshock. We test our results over a range of effective coefficient of friction values. Hence, we argue that the M5.0 foreshock, induced by fluid injection, potentially triggered a cascading failure of earthquakes along the complex Wilzetta fault system.

The 2014 Greeley, Colorado Earthquakes: Science, Industry, Regulation, and Media

Science.gov (United States)

Yeck, W. L.; Sheehan, A. F.; Weingarten, M.; Nakai, J.; Ge, S.

2014-12-01

On June 1, 2014 (UTC) a magnitude 3.2 earthquake occurred east of the town of Greeley, Colorado. The earthquake was widely felt, with reports from Boulder and Golden, over 60 miles away from the epicenter. The location of the earthquake in a region long considered aseismic but now the locus of active oil and gas production prompted the question of whether this was a natural or induced earthquake. Several classic induced seismicity cases hail from Colorado, including the Rocky Mountain Arsenal earthquakes in the 1960s and the Paradox Valley earthquakes in western Colorado. In both cases the earthquakes were linked to wastewater injection. The Greeley earthquake epicenter was close to a Class II well that had been injecting waste fluid into the deepest sedimentary formation of the Denver Basin at rates as high as 350,000 barrels/month for less than a year. The closest seismometers to the June 1 event were more than 100 km away, necessitating deployment of a local seismic network for detailed study. IRIS provided six seismometers to the University of Colorado which were deployed starting within 3 days of the mainshock. Telemetry at one site allowed for real time monitoring of the ongoing seismic sequence. Local media interest was extremely high with speculation that the earthquake was linked to the oil and gas industry. The timetable of media demand for information provided some challenges given the time needed for data collection and analysis. We adopted a policy of open data and open communication with all interested parties, and made proactive attempts to provide information to industry and regulators. After 3 weeks of data collection and analysis, the proximity and timing of the mainshock and aftershocks to the C4A injection well, along with a sharp increase in seismicity culminating in an M 2.6 aftershock, led to a decision by the Colorado Oil and Gas Corporation Commission (COGCC) to recommend a temporary halt to injection at the C4A injection well. This was the

The January 2014 Northern Cuba Earthquake Sequence - Unusual Location and Unexpected Source Mechanism Variability

Science.gov (United States)

Braunmiller, J.; Thompson, G.; McNutt, S. R.

2017-12-01

On 9 January 2014, a magnitude Mw=5.1 earthquake occurred along the Bahamas-Cuba suture at the northern coast of Cuba revealing a surprising seismic hazard source for both Cuba and southern Florida where it was widely felt. Due to its location, the event and its aftershocks (M>3.5) were recorded only at far distances (300+ km) resulting in high-detection thresholds, low location accuracy, and limited source parameter resolution. We use three-component regional seismic data to study the sequence. High-pass filtered seismograms at the closest site in southern Florida are similar in character suggesting a relatively tight event cluster and revealing additional, smaller aftershocks not included in the ANSS or ISC catalogs. Aligning on the P arrival and low-pass filtering (T>10 s) uncovers a surprise polarity flip of the large amplitude surface waves on vertical seismograms for some aftershocks relative to the main shock. We performed regional moment tensor inversions of the main shock and its largest aftershocks using complete three-component seismograms from stations distributed throughout the region to confirm the mechanism changes. Consistent with the GCMT solution, we find an E-W trending normal faulting mechanism for the main event and for one immediate aftershock. Two aftershocks indicate E-W trending reverse faulting with essentially flipped P- and T-axes relative to the normal faulting events (and the same B-axes). Within uncertainties, depths of the two event families are indistinguishable and indicate shallow faulting (<10 km). One intriguing possible interpretation is that both families ruptured the same fault with reverse mechanisms compensating for overshooting. However, activity could also be spatially separated either vertically (with reverse mechanisms possibly below extension) or laterally. The shallow source depth and the 200-km long uplifted chain of islands indicate that larger, shallow and thus potentially tsunamigenic earthquakes could occur just

Strong-motion observations of the M 7.8 Gorkha, Nepal, earthquake sequence and development of the N-shake strong-motion network

Science.gov (United States)

Dixit, Amod; Ringler, Adam; Sumy, Danielle F.; Cochran, Elizabeth S.; Hough, Susan E.; Martin, Stacey; Gibbons, Steven; Luetgert, James H.; Galetzka, John; Shrestha, Surya; Rajaure, Sudhir; McNamara, Daniel E.

2015-01-01

We present and describe strong-motion data observations from the 2015 M 7.8 Gorkha, Nepal, earthquake sequence collected using existing and new Quake-Catcher Network (QCN) and U.S. Geological Survey NetQuakes sensors located in the Kathmandu Valley. A comparison of QCN data with waveforms recorded by a conventional strong-motion (NetQuakes) instrument validates the QCN data. We present preliminary analysis of spectral accelerations, and peak ground acceleration and velocity for earthquakes up to M 7.3 from the QCN stations, as well as preliminary analysis of the mainshock recording from the NetQuakes station. We show that mainshock peak accelerations were lower than expected and conclude the Kathmandu Valley experienced a pervasively nonlinear response during the mainshock. Phase picks from the QCN and NetQuakes data are also used to improve aftershock locations. This study confirms the utility of QCN instruments to contribute to ground-motion investigations and aftershock response in regions where conventional instrumentation and open-access seismic data are limited. Initial pilot installations of QCN instruments in 2014 are now being expanded to create the Nepal–Shaking Hazard Assessment for Kathmandu and its Environment (N-SHAKE) network.

Earthquake and nuclear explosion location using the global seismic network

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lopez, L.M.

1983-01-01

The relocation of nuclear explosions, aftershock sequence and regional seismicity is addressed by using joint hypocenter determination, Lomnitz' distance domain location, and origin time and earthquake depth determination with local observations. Distance domain and joint hypocenter location are used for a stepwise relocation of nuclear explosions in the USSR. The resulting origin times are 2.5 seconds earlier than those obtained by ISC. Local travel times from the relocated explosions are compared to Jeffreys-Bullen tables. P times are found to be faster at 9-30 0 distances, the largest deviation being around 10 seconds at 13-18 0 . At these distances S travel times also are faster by approximately 20 seconds. The 1977 Sumba earthquake sequence is relocated by iterative joint hypocenter determination of events with most station reports. Simultaneously determined station corrections are utilized for the relocation of smaller aftershocks. The relocated hypocenters indicate that the aftershocks were initially concentrated along the deep trench. Origin times and depths are recalculated for intermediate depth and deep earthquakes using local observations in and around the Japanese Islands. It is found that origin time and depth differ systematically from ISC values for intermediate depth events. Origin times obtained for events below the crust down to 100 km depth are earlier, whereas no general bias seem to exist for origin times of events in the 100-400 km depth range. The recalculated depths for earthquakes shallower than 100 km are shallower than ISC depths. The depth estimates for earthquakes deeper than 100 km were increased by the recalculations

Earthquake and nuclear explosion location using the global seismic network

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lopez, L.M.

1983-01-01

The relocation of nuclear explosions, aftershock sequence and regional seismicity is addressed by using joint hypocenter determination, Lomnitz' distance domain location, and origin time and earthquake depth determination with local observations. Distance domain and joint hypocenter location are used for a stepwise relocation of nuclear explosions in the USSR. The resulting origin times are 2.5 seconds earlier than those obtained by ISC. Local travel times from the relocated explosions are compared to Jeffreys-Bullen tables. P times are found to be faster at 9-30/sup 0/ distances, the largest deviation being around 10 seconds at 13-18/sup 0/. At these distances S travel times also are faster by approximately 20 seconds. The 1977 Sumba earthquake sequence is relocated by iterative joint hypocenter determination of events with most station reports. Simultaneously determined station corrections are utilized for the relocation of smaller aftershocks. The relocated hypocenters indicate that the aftershocks were initially concentrated along the deep trench. Origin times and depths are recalculated for intermediate depth and deep earthquakes using local observations in and around the Japanese Islands. It is found that origin time and depth differ systematically from ISC values for intermediate depth events. Origin times obtained for events below the crust down to 100 km depth are earlier, whereas no general bias seem to exist for origin times of events in the 100-400 km depth range. The recalculated depths for earthquakes shallower than 100 km are shallower than ISC depths. The depth estimates for earthquakes deeper than 100 km were increased by the recalculations.

A new strategy for earthquake focal mechanisms using waveform-correlation-derived relative polarities and cluster analysis: Application to the 2014 Long Valley Caldera earthquake swarm

Science.gov (United States)

Shelly, David R.; Hardebeck, Jeanne L.; Ellsworth, William L.; Hill, David P.

2016-01-01

In microseismicity analyses, reliable focal mechanisms can typically be obtained for only a small subset of located events. We address this limitation here, presenting a framework for determining robust focal mechanisms for entire populations of very small events. To achieve this, we resolve relative P and S wave polarities between pairs of waveforms by using their signed correlation coefficients—a by-product of previously performed precise earthquake relocation. We then use cluster analysis to group events with similar patterns of polarities across the network. Finally, we apply a standard mechanism inversion to the grouped data, using either catalog or correlation-derived P wave polarity data sets. This approach has great potential for enhancing analyses of spatially concentrated microseismicity such as earthquake swarms, mainshock-aftershock sequences, and industrial reservoir stimulation or injection-induced seismic sequences. To demonstrate its utility, we apply this technique to the 2014 Long Valley Caldera earthquake swarm. In our analysis, 85% of the events (7212 out of 8494 located by Shelly et al. [2016]) fall within five well-constrained mechanism clusters, more than 12 times the number with network-determined mechanisms. Of the earthquakes we characterize, 3023 (42%) have magnitudes smaller than 0.0. We find that mechanism variations are strongly associated with corresponding hypocentral structure, yet mechanism heterogeneity also occurs where it cannot be resolved by hypocentral patterns, often confined to small-magnitude events. Small (5–20°) rotations between mechanism orientations and earthquake location trends persist when we apply 3-D velocity models and might reflect a geometry of en echelon, interlinked shear, and dilational faulting.

Correlation between Earthquakes and AE Monitoring of Historical Buildings in Seismic Areas

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Giuseppe Lacidogna

2015-12-01

Full Text Available In this contribution a new method for evaluating seismic risk in regional areas based on the acoustic emission (AE technique is proposed. Most earthquakes have precursors, i.e., phenomena of changes in the Earth’s physical-chemical properties that take place prior to an earthquake. Acoustic emissions in materials and earthquakes in the Earth’s crust, despite the fact that they take place on very different scales, are very similar phenomena; both are caused by a release of elastic energy from a source located in a medium. For the AE monitoring, two important constructions of Italian cultural heritage are considered: the chapel of the “Sacred Mountain of Varallo” and the “Asinelli Tower” of Bologna. They were monitored during earthquake sequences in their relative areas. By using the Grassberger-Procaccia algorithm, a statistical method of analysis was developed that detects AEs as earthquake precursors or aftershocks. Under certain conditions it was observed that AEs precede earthquakes. These considerations reinforce the idea that the AE monitoring can be considered an effective tool for earthquake risk evaluation.

Statistics and Analysis of the Relations between Rainstorm Floods and Earthquakes

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Baodeng Hou

2016-01-01

Full Text Available The frequent occurrence of geophysical disasters under climate change has drawn Chinese scholars to pay their attention to disaster relations. If the occurrence sequence of disasters could be identified, long-term disaster forecast could be realized. Based on the Earth Degassing Effect (EDE which is valid, this paper took the magnitude, epicenter, and occurrence time of the earthquake, as well as the epicenter and occurrence time of the rainstorm floods as basic factors to establish an integrated model to study the correlation between rainstorm floods and earthquakes. 2461 severe earthquakes occurred in China or within 3000 km from China and the 169 heavy rainstorm floods occurred in China over the past 200+ years as the input data of the model. The computational results showed that although most of the rainstorm floods have nothing to do with the severe earthquakes from a statistical perspective, some floods might relate to earthquakes. This is especially true when the earthquakes happen in the vapor transmission zone where rainstorms lead to abundant water vapors. In this regard, earthquakes are more likely to cause big rainstorm floods. However, many cases of rainstorm floods could be found after severe earthquakes with a large extent of uncertainty.

Coastal evidence for Holocene subduction-zone earthquakes and tsunamis in central Chile

Science.gov (United States)

Dure, Tina; Cisternas, Marco; Horton, Benjamin; Ely, Lisa; Nelson, Alan R.; Wesson, Robert L.; Pilarczyk, Jessica

2015-01-01

The ∼500-year historical record of seismicity along the central Chile coast (30–34°S) is characterized by a series of ∼M 8.0–8.5 earthquakes followed by low tsunamis (tsunami (>10 m), but the frequency of such large events is unknown. We extend the seismic history of central Chile through a study of a lowland stratigraphic sequence along the metropolitan coast north of Valparaíso (33°S). At this site, higher relative sea level during the mid Holocene created a tidal marsh and the accommodation space necessary for sediment that preserves earthquake and tsunami evidence. Within this 2600-yr-long sequence, we traced six laterally continuous sand beds probably deposited by high tsunamis. Plant remains that underlie the sand beds were radiocarbon dated to 6200, 5600, 5000, 4400, 3800, and 3700 cal yr BP. Sediment properties and diatom assemblages of the sand beds—for example, anomalous marine planktonic diatoms and upward fining of silt-sized diatom valves—point to a marine sediment source and high-energy deposition. Grain-size analysis shows a strong similarity between inferred tsunami deposits and modern coastal sediment. Upward fining sequences characteristic of suspension deposition are present in five of the six sand beds. Despite the lack of significant lithologic changes between the sedimentary units under- and overlying tsunami deposits, we infer that the increase in freshwater siliceous microfossils in overlying units records coseismic uplift concurrent with the deposition of five of the sand beds. During our mid-Holocene window of evidence preservation, the mean recurrence interval of earthquakes and tsunamis is ∼500 years. Our findings imply that the frequency of historical earthquakes in central Chile is not representative of the greatest earthquakes and tsunamis that the central Chilean subduction zone has produced.

Coastal evidence for Holocene subduction-zone earthquakes and tsunamis in central Chile

Science.gov (United States)

Dure, Tina; Cisternas, Marco; Horton, Benjamin; Ely, Lisa; Nelson, Alan R.; Wesson, Robert L.; Pilarczyk, Jessica

2015-01-01

The ∼500-year historical record of seismicity along the central Chile coast (30–34°S) is characterized by a series of ∼M 8.0–8.5 earthquakes followed by low tsunamis (10 m), but the frequency of such large events is unknown. We extend the seismic history of central Chile through a study of a lowland stratigraphic sequence along the metropolitan coast north of Valparaíso (33°S). At this site, higher relative sea level during the mid Holocene created a tidal marsh and the accommodation space necessary for sediment that preserves earthquake and tsunami evidence. Within this 2600-yr-long sequence, we traced six laterally continuous sand beds probably deposited by high tsunamis. Plant remains that underlie the sand beds were radiocarbon dated to 6200, 5600, 5000, 4400, 3800, and 3700 cal yr BP. Sediment properties and diatom assemblages of the sand beds—for example, anomalous marine planktonic diatoms and upward fining of silt-sized diatom valves—point to a marine sediment source and high-energy deposition. Grain-size analysis shows a strong similarity between inferred tsunami deposits and modern coastal sediment. Upward fining sequences characteristic of suspension deposition are present in five of the six sand beds. Despite the lack of significant lithologic changes between the sedimentary units under- and overlying tsunami deposits, we infer that the increase in freshwater siliceous microfossils in overlying units records coseismic uplift concurrent with the deposition of five of the sand beds. During our mid-Holocene window of evidence preservation, the mean recurrence interval of earthquakes and tsunamis is ∼500 years. Our findings imply that the frequency of historical earthquakes in central Chile is not representative of the greatest earthquakes and tsunamis that the central Chilean subduction zone has produced.

Frictional properties and slip stability of active faults within carbonate-evaporite sequences: The role of dolomite and anhydrite

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Scuderi, M.M.; Niemeijer, A.R.; Collettini, C.; Marone, C.

2013-01-01

Seismological observations show that many destructive earthquakes nucleate within, or propagate through, thick sequences of carbonates and evaporites. For example, along the Apennines range (Italy) carbonate and evaporite sequences are present at hypocentral depths for recent major earthquakes

Scale-free networks of earthquakes and aftershocks

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Baiesi, Marco; Paczuski, Maya

2004-01-01

We propose a metric to quantify correlations between earthquakes. The metric consists of a product involving the time interval and spatial distance between two events, as well as the magnitude of the first one. According to this metric, events typically are strongly correlated to only one or a few preceding ones. Thus a classification of events as foreshocks, main shocks, or aftershocks emerges automatically without imposing predetermined space-time windows. In the simplest network construction, each earthquake receives an incoming link from its most correlated predecessor. The number of aftershocks for any event, identified by its outgoing links, is found to be scale free with exponent γ=2.0(1). The original Omori law with p=1 emerges as a robust feature of seismicity, holding up to years even for aftershock sequences initiated by intermediate magnitude events. The broad distribution of distances between earthquakes and their linked aftershocks suggests that aftershock collection with fixed space windows is not appropriate

Earthquakes

Science.gov (United States)

An earthquake happens when two blocks of the earth suddenly slip past one another. Earthquakes strike suddenly, violently, and without warning at any time of the day or night. If an earthquake occurs in a populated area, it may cause ...

Relocation of the 2010-2013 near the north coast of Papua earthquake sequence using Modified Joint Hypocenter Determination (MJHD) method

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Salomo, Dimas; Daryono,; Subakti, Hendri

2015-01-01

The accuracy of earthquake hypocenter position is necessary to analyze the tectonic conditions. This study aims to: (1) relocate the mainshock and aftershocks of the large earthquakes in Papua region i.e. June 16, 2010, April 21, 2012 and April 06, 2013 earthquake (2) determine the true fault plane, (3) estimate the area of the fracture, and (4) analyze the advantages and disadvantages of relocation with MJHD method in benefits for tectonic studies. This study used Modified Joint Hypocenter Determination (MJHD) method. Using P arrival phase data reported by the BMKG and openly available from website repogempa.bmkg.go.id, we relocated the mainshock of this large significant earthquake and its aftershocks. Then we identified the prefered fault planes from the candidate fault planes provided by the global CMT catalogue. The position of earthquakes was successfully relocated. The earthquakes mostly were clustered around the mainshock. Earthquakes that not clustered around mainshock are considered to be different mechanism from the mainshock. Relocation results indicate that the mainshock fault plane of June 16, 2010 earthquake is a field with strike 332o, dip 80o and −172o slip, the mainshock fault plane of April 21, 2012 earthquake is a field with strike 82o, dip 84o and 2o slip, the mainshock fault plane of April 06, 2013 earthquake is a field with strike 339o, dip 56o and −137o slip. Fault plane area estimated by cross section graphical method is an area of 2816.0 km2 (June 16, 2010), 906.2 km2 (April 21, 2012) and 1984.3 km2 (April 06, 2013). MJHD method has the advantage that it can calculate a lot of earthquakes simultaneously and has a station correction to account for lateral heterogeneity of the earth. This method successfully provides significant changes to improve the position of the depth of earthquakes that most of the hypocenter depth manually specified as a fixed depth (± 10 km). But this method cannot be sure that the hypocenters derived from the

Complex rupture process of the Mw 7.8, 2016, Kaikoura earthquake, New Zealand, and its aftershock sequence

Science.gov (United States)

Cesca, S.; Zhang, Y.; Mouslopoulou, V.; Wang, R.; Saul, J.; Savage, M.; Heimann, S.; Kufner, S.-K.; Oncken, O.; Dahm, T.

2017-11-01

The M7.8 Kaikoura Earthquake that struck the northeastern South Island, New Zealand, on November 14, 2016 (local time), is one of the largest ever instrumentally recorded earthquakes in New Zealand. It occurred at the southern termination of the Hikurangi subduction margin, where the subducting Pacific Plate transitions into the dextral Alpine transform fault. The earthquake produced significant distributed uplift along the north-eastern part of the South Island, reaching a peak amplitude of ∼8 m, which was accompanied by large (≥10 m) horizontal coseismic displacements at the ground surface along discrete active faults. The seismic waveforms' expression of the main shock indicate a complex rupture process. Early automated centroid moment tensor solutions indicated a strong non-double-couple term, which supports a complex rupture involving multiple faults. The hypocentral distribution of aftershocks, which appears diffuse over a broad region, clusters spatially along lineaments with different orientations. A key question of global interest is to shed light on the mechanism with which such a complex rupture occurred, and whether the underlying plate-interface was involved in the rupture. The consequences for seismic hazard of such a distributed, shallow faulting is important to be assessed. We perform a broad seismological analysis, combining regional and teleseismic seismograms, GPS and InSAR, to determine the rupture process of the main shock and moment tensors of 118 aftershocks down to Mw 4.2. The joint interpretation of the main rupture and aftershock sequence allow reconstruction of the geometry, and suggests sequential activation and slip distribution on at least three major active fault domains. We find that the rupture nucleated as a weak strike-slip event along the Humps Fault, which progressively propagated northward onto a shallow reverse fault, where most of the seismic moment was released, before it triggered slip on a second set of strike

The Challenge of Centennial Earthquakes to Improve Modern Earthquake Engineering

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Saragoni, G. Rodolfo

2008-01-01

The recent commemoration of the centennial of the San Francisco and Valparaiso 1906 earthquakes has given the opportunity to reanalyze their damages from modern earthquake engineering perspective. These two earthquakes plus Messina Reggio Calabria 1908 had a strong impact in the birth and developing of earthquake engineering. The study of the seismic performance of some up today existing buildings, that survive centennial earthquakes, represent a challenge to better understand the limitations of our in use earthquake design methods. Only Valparaiso 1906 earthquake, of the three considered centennial earthquakes, has been repeated again as the Central Chile, 1985, Ms = 7.8 earthquake. In this paper a comparative study of the damage produced by 1906 and 1985 Valparaiso earthquakes is done in the neighborhood of Valparaiso harbor. In this study the only three centennial buildings of 3 stories that survived both earthquakes almost undamaged were identified. Since for 1985 earthquake accelerogram at El Almendral soil conditions as well as in rock were recoded, the vulnerability analysis of these building is done considering instrumental measurements of the demand. The study concludes that good performance of these buildings in the epicentral zone of large earthquakes can not be well explained by modern earthquake engineering methods. Therefore, it is recommended to use in the future of more suitable instrumental parameters, such as the destructiveness potential factor, to describe earthquake demand

Temporal characteristics of some aftershock sequences in Bulgaria

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

D. Solakov

1999-06-01

Full Text Available We apply statistical analysis to study the temporal distribution of aftershocks in aftershock sequences of five earthquakes which occurred in Bulgaria. We use the maximum likelihood method to estimate the parameters of the modified Omori formula for aftershock sequences which is directly based on a time series. We find that: the maximum likelihood estimates of the parameter p show a regional variation, with lower values of the decay rate in North Bulgaria; the modified Omori formula provides an appropriate representation of temporal variation of the aftershock activity in North Bulgaria; the aftershock sequences in South Bulgaria are best modeled by the combination of an ordinary aftershock sequence with secondary aftershock activity. A plot of the cumulative number of events versus the frequency-linearized time t clearly demonstrates a transition from aftershock to foreshock activity prior to the second 1986 Strazhitsa (North Bulgaria earthquake.

Proposal of methodology of tsunami accident sequence analysis induced by earthquake using DQFM methodology

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Muta, Hitoshi; Muramatsu, Ken

2017-01-01

Since the Fukushima-Daiichi nuclear power station accident, the Japanese regulatory body has improved and upgraded the regulation of nuclear power plants, and continuous effort is required to enhance risk management in the mid- to long term. Earthquakes and tsunamis are considered as the most important risks, and the establishment of probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) methodologies for these events is a major issue of current PRA. The Nuclear Regulation Authority (NRA) addressed the PRA methodology for tsunamis induced by earthquakes, which is one of the methodologies that should be enhanced step by step for the improvement and maturity of PRA techniques. The AESJ standard for the procedure of seismic PRA for nuclear power plants in 2015 provides the basic concept of the methodology; however, details of the application to the actual plant PRA model have not been sufficiently provided. This study proposes a detailed PRA methodology for tsunamis induced by earthquakes using the DQFM methodology, which contributes to improving the safety of nuclear power plants. Furthermore, this study also states the issues which need more research. (author)

Expanding the Delivery of Rapid Earthquake Information and Warnings for Response and Recovery

Science.gov (United States)

Blanpied, M. L.; McBride, S.; Hardebeck, J.; Michael, A. J.; van der Elst, N.

2017-12-01

Scientific organizations like the United States Geological Survey (USGS) release information to support effective responses during an earthquake crisis. Information is delivered to the White House, the National Command Center, the Departments of Defense, Homeland Security (including FEMA), Transportation, Energy, and Interior. Other crucial stakeholders include state officials and decision makers, emergency responders, numerous public and private infrastructure management centers (e.g., highways, railroads and pipelines), the media, and the public. To meet the diverse information requirements of these users, rapid earthquake notifications have been developed to be delivered by e-mail and text message, as well as a suite of earthquake information resources such as ShakeMaps, Did You Feel It?, PAGER impact estimates, and data are delivered via the web. The ShakeAlert earthquake early warning system being developed for the U.S. West Coast will identify and characterize an earthquake a few seconds after it begins, estimate the likely intensity of ground shaking, and deliver brief but critically important warnings to people and infrastructure in harm's way. Currently the USGS is also developing a capability to deliver Operational Earthquake Forecasts (OEF). These provide estimates of potential seismic behavior after large earthquakes and during evolving aftershock sequences. Similar work is underway in New Zealand, Japan, and Italy. In the development of OEF forecasts, social science research conducted during these sequences indicates that aftershock forecasts are valued for a variety of reasons, from informing critical response and recovery decisions to psychologically preparing for more earthquakes. New tools will allow users to customize map-based, spatiotemporal forecasts to their specific needs. Hazard curves and other advanced information will also be available. For such authoritative information to be understood and used during the pressures of an earthquake

Earthquake prediction

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ward, P.L.

1978-01-01

The state of the art of earthquake prediction is summarized, the possible responses to such prediction are examined, and some needs in the present prediction program and in research related to use of this new technology are reviewed. Three basic aspects of earthquake prediction are discussed: location of the areas where large earthquakes are most likely to occur, observation within these areas of measurable changes (earthquake precursors) and determination of the area and time over which the earthquake will occur, and development of models of the earthquake source in order to interpret the precursors reliably. 6 figures

Far-field triggering of foreshocks near the nucleation zone of the 5 September 2012 (MW 7.6) Nicoya Peninsula, Costa Rica earthquake

Science.gov (United States)

Walter, Jacob I.; Meng, Xiaofeng; Peng, Zhigang; Schwartz, Susan Y.; Newman, Andrew V.; Protti, Marino

2015-12-01

On 5 September 2012, a moment magnitude (MW) 7.6 earthquake occurred directly beneath the Nicoya Peninsula, an area with dense seismic and geodetic network coverage. The mainshock ruptured a portion of a previously identified locked patch that was recognized due to a decade-long effort to delineate the megathrust seismic and aseismic processes in this area. Here we conduct a comprehensive study of the seismicity prior to this event utilizing a matched-filter analysis that allows us to decrease the magnitude of catalog completeness by 1 unit. We observe a statistically significant increase in seismicity rate below the Nicoya Peninsula following the 27 August 2012 (MW 7.3) El Salvador earthquake (about 450 km to the northwest and 9 days prior to the Nicoya earthquake). Additionally, we identify a cluster of small-magnitude (earthquakes preceding the mainshock by about 35 min and within 15 km of its hypocenter. The immediate foreshock sequence occurred in the same area as those earthquakes triggered shortly after the El Salvador event; though it is not clear whether the effect of triggering from the El Salvador event persisted until the foreshock sequence given the uncertainties in seismicity rates from a relatively small number of earthquakes. If megathrust earthquakes at such distances can induce significant increases in seismicity during the days before another larger event, this sequence strengthens the need for real-time seismicity monitoring for large earthquake forecasting.

Earthquake Complex Network Analysis Before and After the Mw 8.2 Earthquake in Iquique, Chile

Science.gov (United States)

Pasten, D.

2017-12-01

The earthquake complex networks have shown that they are abble to find specific features in seismic data set. In space, this networkshave shown a scale-free behavior for the probability distribution of connectivity, in directed networks and theyhave shown a small-world behavior, for the undirected networks.In this work, we present an earthquake complex network analysis for the large earthquake Mw 8.2 in the north ofChile (near to Iquique) in April, 2014. An earthquake complex network is made dividing the three dimensional space intocubic cells, if one of this cells contain an hypocenter, we name this cell like a node. The connections between nodes aregenerated in time. We follow the time sequence of seismic events and we are making the connections betweennodes. Now, we have two different networks: a directed and an undirected network. Thedirected network takes in consideration the time-direction of the connections, that is very important for the connectivityof the network: we are considering the connectivity, ki of the i-th node, like the number of connections going out ofthe node i plus the self-connections (if two seismic events occurred successive in time in the same cubic cell, we havea self-connection). The undirected network is made removing the direction of the connections and the self-connectionsfrom the directed network. For undirected networks, we are considering only if two nodes are or not connected.We have built a directed complex network and an undirected complex network, before and after the large earthquake in Iquique. We have used magnitudes greater than Mw = 1.0 and Mw = 3.0. We found that this method can recognize the influence of thissmall seismic events in the behavior of the network and we found that the size of the cell used to build the network isanother important factor to recognize the influence of the large earthquake in this complex system. This method alsoshows a difference in the values of the critical exponent γ (for the probability

Earthquake clustering in modern seismicity and its relationship with strong historical earthquakes around Beijing, China

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Jian; Main, Ian G.; Musson, Roger M. W.

2017-11-01

Beijing, China's capital city, is located in a typical intraplate seismic belt, with relatively high-quality instrumental catalogue data available since 1970. The Chinese historical earthquake catalogue contains six strong historical earthquakes of Ms ≥ 6 around Beijing, the earliest in 294 AD. This poses a significant potential hazard to one of the most densely populated and economically active parts of China. In some intraplate areas, persistent clusters of events associated with historical events can occur over centuries, for example, the ongoing sequence in the New Madrid zone of the eastern US. Here we will examine the evidence for such persistent clusters around Beijing. We introduce a metric known as the `seismic density index' that quantifies the degree of clustering of seismic energy release. For a given map location, this multi-dimensional index depends on the number of events, their magnitudes, and the distances to the locations of the surrounding population of earthquakes. We apply the index to modern instrumental catalogue data between 1970 and 2014, and identify six clear candidate zones. We then compare these locations to earthquake epicentre and seismic intensity data for the six largest historical earthquakes. Each candidate zone contains one of the six historical events, and the location of peak intensity is within 5 km or so of the reported epicentre in five of these cases. In one case—the great Ms 8 earthquake of 1679—the peak is closer to the area of strongest shaking (Intensity XI or more) than the reported epicentre. The present-day event rates are similar to those predicted by the modified Omori law but there is no evidence of ongoing decay in event rates. Accordingly, the index is more likely to be picking out the location of persistent weaknesses in the lithosphere. Our results imply zones of high seismic density index could be used in principle to indicate the location of unrecorded historical of palaeoseismic events, in China and

Earthquake sequence simulations of a fault in a viscoelastic material with a spectral boundary integral equation method: The effect of interseismic stress relaxation on a behavior of a rate-weakening patch

Science.gov (United States)

Miyake, Y.; Noda, H.

2017-12-01

Earthquake sequences involve many processes in a wide range of time scales, from quasistatic loading to dynamic rupture. At a depth of brittle-plastic transitional and deeper, rock behaves as a viscous fluid in a long timescale, but as an elastic material in a short timescale. Viscoelastic stress relaxation may be important in the interseismic periods at the depth, near the deeper limit of the seismogenic layer or the region of slow slip events (SSEs) [Namiki et al., 2014 and references therein]. In the present study, we implemented the viscoelastic effect (Maxwell material) in fully-dynamic earthquake sequence simulations using a spectral boundary integral equation method (SBIEM) [e.g., Lapusta et al., 2000]. SBIEM is efficient in calculation of convolutional terms for dynamic stress transfer, and the problem size is limited by the amount of memory available. Linear viscoelasticity could be implemented by convolution of slip rate history and Green's function, but this method requires additional memory and thus not suitable for the implementation to the present code. Instead, we integrated the evolution of "effective slip" distribution, which gives static stress distribution when convolved with static elastic Green's function. This method works only for simple viscoelastic property distributions, but such models are suitable for numerical experiments aiming basic understanding of the system behavior because of the virtue of SBIEM, the ability of fine on-fault spatial resolution and efficient computation utilizing the fast Fourier transformation. In the present study, we examined the effect of viscoelasticity on earthquake sequences of a fault with a rate-weakening patch. A series of simulations with various relaxation time tc revealed that as decreasing tc, recurrence intervals of earthquakes increases and seismicity ultimately disappears. As long as studied, this transition to aseismic behavior is NOT associated with SSEs. In a case where the rate-weakening patch

Aftershocks and triggered events of the Great 1906 California earthquake

Science.gov (United States)

Meltzner, A.J.; Wald, D.J.

2003-01-01

The San Andreas fault is the longest fault in California and one of the longest strike-slip faults in the world, yet little is known about the aftershocks following the most recent great event on the San Andreas, the Mw 7.8 San Francisco earthquake on 18 April 1906. We conducted a study to locate and to estimate magnitudes for the largest aftershocks and triggered events of this earthquake. We examined existing catalogs and historical documents for the period April 1906 to December 1907, compiling data on the first 20 months of the aftershock sequence. We grouped felt reports temporally and assigned modified Mercalli intensities for the larger events based on the descriptions judged to be the most reliable. For onshore and near-shore events, a grid-search algorithm (derived from empirical analysis of modern earthquakes) was used to find the epicentral location and magnitude most consistent with the assigned intensities. For one event identified as far offshore, the event's intensity distribution was compared with those of modern events, in order to contrain the event's location and magnitude. The largest aftershock within the study period, an M ???6.7 event, occurred ???100 km west of Eureka on 23 April 1906. Although not within our study period, another M ???6.7 aftershock occurred near Cape Mendocino on 28 October 1909. Other significant aftershocks included an M ???5.6 event near San Juan Bautista on 17 May 1906 and an M ???6.3 event near Shelter Cove on 11 August 1907. An M ???4.9 aftershock occurred on the creeping segment of the San Andreas fault (southeast of the mainshock rupture) on 6 July 1906. The 1906 San Francisco earthquake also triggered events in southern California (including separate events in or near the Imperial Valley, the Pomona Valley, and Santa Monica Bay), in western Nevada, in southern central Oregon, and in western Arizona, all within 2 days of the mainshock. Of these trigerred events, the largest were an M ???6.1 earthquake near Brawley

Strategic crisis and risk communication during a prolonged natural hazard event: lessons learned from the Canterbury earthquake sequence

Science.gov (United States)

Wein, A. M.; Potter, S.; Becker, J.; Doyle, E. E.; Jones, J. L.

2015-12-01

While communication products are developed for monitoring and forecasting hazard events, less thought may have been given to crisis and risk communication plans. During larger (and rarer) events responsible science agencies may find themselves facing new and intensified demands for information and unprepared for effectively resourcing communications. In a study of the communication of aftershock information during the 2010-12 Canterbury Earthquake Sequence (New Zealand), issues are identified and implications for communication strategy noted. Communication issues during the responses included reliability and timeliness of communication channels for immediate and short decision time frames; access to scientists by those who needed information; unfamiliar emergency management frameworks; information needs of multiple audiences, audience readiness to use the information; and how best to convey empathy during traumatic events and refer to other information sources about what to do and how to cope. Other science communication challenges included meeting an increased demand for earthquake education, getting attention on aftershock forecasts; responding to rumor management; supporting uptake of information by critical infrastructure and government and for the application of scientific information in complex societal decisions; dealing with repetitive information requests; addressing diverse needs of multiple audiences for scientific information; and coordinating communications within and outside the science domain. For a science agency, a communication strategy would consider training scientists in communication, establishing relationships with university scientists and other disaster communication roles, coordinating messages, prioritizing audiences, deliberating forecasts with community leaders, identifying user needs and familiarizing them with the products ahead of time, and practicing the delivery and use of information via scenario planning and exercises.

Long-term predictability of regions and dates of strong earthquakes

Science.gov (United States)

Kubyshen, Alexander; Doda, Leonid; Shopin, Sergey

2016-04-01

Results on the long-term predictability of strong earthquakes are discussed. It is shown that dates of earthquakes with M>5.5 could be determined in advance of several months before the event. The magnitude and the region of approaching earthquake could be specified in the time-frame of a month before the event. Determination of number of M6+ earthquakes, which are expected to occur during the analyzed year, is performed using the special sequence diagram of seismic activity for the century time frame. Date analysis could be performed with advance of 15-20 years. Data is verified by a monthly sequence diagram of seismic activity. The number of strong earthquakes expected to occur in the analyzed month is determined by several methods having a different prediction horizon. Determination of days of potential earthquakes with M5.5+ is performed using astronomical data. Earthquakes occur on days of oppositions of Solar System planets (arranged in a single line). At that, the strongest earthquakes occur under the location of vector "Sun-Solar System barycenter" in the ecliptic plane. Details of this astronomical multivariate indicator still require further research, but it's practical significant is confirmed by practice. Another one empirical indicator of approaching earthquake M6+ is a synchronous variation of meteorological parameters: abrupt decreasing of minimal daily temperature, increasing of relative humidity, abrupt change of atmospheric pressure (RAMES method). Time difference of predicted and actual date is no more than one day. This indicator is registered 104 days before the earthquake, so it was called as Harmonic 104 or H-104. This fact looks paradoxical, but the works of A. Sytinskiy and V. Bokov on the correlation of global atmospheric circulation and seismic events give a physical basis for this empirical fact. Also, 104 days is a quarter of a Chandler period so this fact gives insight on the correlation between the anomalies of Earth orientation

Using Dynamic Fourier Analysis to Discriminate Between Seismic Signals from Natural Earthquakes and Mining Explosions

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Maria C. Mariani

2017-08-01

Full Text Available A sequence of intraplate earthquakes occurred in Arizona at the same location where miningexplosions were carried out in previous years. The explosions and some of the earthquakes generatedvery similar seismic signals. In this study Dynamic Fourier Analysis is used for discriminating signalsoriginating from natural earthquakes and mining explosions. Frequency analysis of seismogramsrecorded at regional distances shows that compared with the mining explosions the earthquake signalshave larger amplitudes in the frequency interval ~ 6 to 8 Hz and significantly smaller amplitudes inthe frequency interval ~ 2 to 4 Hz. This type of analysis permits identifying characteristics in theseismograms frequency yielding to detect potentially risky seismic events.

High resolution measurement of earthquake impacts on rock slope stability and damage using pre- and post-earthquake terrestrial laser scans

Science.gov (United States)

Hutchinson, Lauren; Stead, Doug; Rosser, Nick

2017-04-01

Understanding the behaviour of rock slopes in response to earthquake shaking is instrumental in response and relief efforts following large earthquakes as well as to ongoing risk management in earthquake affected areas. Assessment of the effects of seismic shaking on rock slope kinematics requires detailed surveys of the pre- and post-earthquake condition of the slope; however, at present, there is a lack of high resolution monitoring data from pre- and post-earthquake to facilitate characterization of seismically induced slope damage and validate models used to back-analyze rock slope behaviour during and following earthquake shaking. Therefore, there is a need for additional research where pre- and post- earthquake monitoring data is available. This paper presents the results of a direct comparison between terrestrial laser scans (TLS) collected in 2014, the year prior to the 2015 earthquake sequence, with that collected 18 months after the earthquakes and two monsoon cycles. The two datasets were collected using Riegl VZ-1000 and VZ-4000 full waveform laser scanners with high resolution (c. 0.1 m point spacing as a minimum). The scans cover the full landslide affected slope from the toe to the crest. The slope is located in Sindhupalchok District, Central Nepal which experienced some of the highest co-seismic and post-seismic landslide intensities across Nepal due to the proximity to the epicenters (<20 km) of both of the main aftershocks on April 26, 2015 (M 6.7) and May 12, 2015 (M7.3). During the 2015 earthquakes and subsequent 2015 and 2016 monsoons, the slope experienced rockfall and debris flows which are evident in satellite imagery and field photographs. Fracturing of the rock mass associated with the seismic shaking is also evident at scales not accessible through satellite and field observations. The results of change detection between the TLS datasets with an emphasis on quantification of seismically-induced slope damage is presented. Patterns in the

Study of near-source earthquake effects on flexible buried pipes

Science.gov (United States)

Davis, Craig Alan

2000-10-01

An investigation is carried out, using strong ground motion recordings, field measurements, and new analytical models, on large diameter flexible buried pipes shaken in the 1994 Northridge earthquake near field. Case studies are presented for corrugated metal pipes (CMP) in the Van Norman Complex (VNC) vicinity in Los Angeles, California. In 1994 the VNC yielded an unprecedented number of strong motion recordings with high acceleration and velocity. These recordings contain forward directivity pulses and provided the largest velocity ever instrumentally recorded (180 cm/s). The recorded motions were significantly different in the longitudinal and transverse directions and had approximately half the amplitude at the VNC center than on the north and south ends. The seismic performances of 61 underground CMPs are presented, beginning with detailed studies of a 2.4 m diameter pipe that suffered complete lateral buckling collapse at the Lower San Fernando Dam (LSFD). The case histories identify factors controlling large diameter CMP seismic performances that are incorporated into several newly developed models for the analysis and design of buried structures. Each model progressively improves the understanding of buried pipe behavior. Simple acceleration- and strain-based pseudo-static models are initially developed to identify main causes for CMP damage. Elasto-dynamic models for transverse SV waves are later used to understand flexible pipe response in the frequency and time domains and are compared with existing solutions. Finally, pseudo-static models, which analyze pipe responses in terms of free-field strains, are formulated to account for dynamic amplification, non-vertical wave incidence, soil layering, and trench backfill soil stiffness. The elastic models are used to investigate soil-pipe interface shear stress and non-linear soil behavior and show that the maximum pipe hoop force is best characterized by assuming no interface slippage. The models explain the

Scaling Relations of Local Magnitude versus Moment Magnitude for Sequences of Similar Earthquakes in Switzerland

KAUST Repository

Bethmann, F.

2011-03-22

Theoretical considerations and empirical regressions show that, in the magnitude range between 3 and 5, local magnitude, ML, and moment magnitude, Mw, scale 1:1. Previous studies suggest that for smaller magnitudes this 1:1 scaling breaks down. However, the scatter between ML and Mw at small magnitudes is usually large and the resulting scaling relations are therefore uncertain. In an attempt to reduce these uncertainties, we first analyze the ML versus Mw relation based on 195 events, induced by the stimulation of a geothermal reservoir below the city of Basel, Switzerland. Values of ML range from 0.7 to 3.4. From these data we derive a scaling of ML ~ 1:5Mw over the given magnitude range. We then compare peak Wood-Anderson amplitudes to the low-frequency plateau of the displacement spectra for six sequences of similar earthquakes in Switzerland in the range of 0:5 ≤ ML ≤ 4:1. Because effects due to the radiation pattern and to the propagation path between source and receiver are nearly identical at a particular station for all events in a given sequence, the scatter in the data is substantially reduced. Again we obtain a scaling equivalent to ML ~ 1:5Mw. Based on simulations using synthetic source time functions for different magnitudes and Q values estimated from spectral ratios between downhole and surface recordings, we conclude that the observed scaling can be explained by attenuation and scattering along the path. Other effects that could explain the observed magnitude scaling, such as a possible systematic increase of stress drop or rupture velocity with moment magnitude, are masked by attenuation along the path.

Short-term and long-term earthquake occurrence models for Italy: ETES, ERS and LTST

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Maura Murru

2010-11-01

Full Text Available This study describes three earthquake occurrence models as applied to the whole Italian territory, to assess the occurrence probabilities of future (M ≥5.0 earthquakes: two as short-term (24 hour models, and one as long-term (5 and 10 years. The first model for short-term forecasts is a purely stochastic epidemic type earthquake sequence (ETES model. The second short-term model is an epidemic rate-state (ERS forecast based on a model that is physically constrained by the application to the earthquake clustering of the Dieterich rate-state constitutive law. The third forecast is based on a long-term stress transfer (LTST model that considers the perturbations of earthquake probability for interacting faults by static Coulomb stress changes. These models have been submitted to the Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP for forecast testing for Italy (ETH-Zurich, and they were locked down to test their validity on real data in a future setting starting from August 1, 2009.

The 2016-2017 Central Italy Seismic Sequence: Source Complexity Inferred from Rupture Models.

Science.gov (United States)

Scognamiglio, L.; Tinti, E.; Casarotti, E.; Pucci, S.; Villani, F.; Cocco, M.; Magnoni, F.; Michelini, A.

2017-12-01

The Apennines have been struck by several seismic sequences in recent years, showing evidence of the activation of multiple segments of normal fault systems in a variable and, relatively short, time span, as in the case of the 1980 Irpinia earthquake (three shocks in 40 s), the 1997 Umbria-Marche sequence (four main shocks in 18 days) and the 2009 L'Aquila earthquake having three segments activated within a few weeks. The 2016-2017 central Apennines seismic sequence begin on August 24th with a MW 6.0 earthquake, which strike the region between Amatrice and Accumoli causing 299 fatalities. This earthquake ruptures a nearly 20 km long normal fault and shows a quite heterogeneous slip distribution. On October 26th, another main shock (MW 5.9) occurs near Visso extending the activated seismogenic area toward the NW. It is a double event rupturing contiguous patches on the fault segment of the normal fault system. Four days after the second main shock, on October 30th, a third earthquake (MW 6.5) occurs near Norcia, roughly midway between Accumoli and Visso. In this work we have inverted strong motion waveforms and GPS data to retrieve the source model of the MW 6.5 event with the aim of interpreting the rupture process in the framework of this complex sequence of moderate magnitude earthquakes. We noted that some preliminary attempts to model the slip distribution of the October 30th main shock using a single fault plane oriented along the Apennines did not provide convincing fits to the observed waveforms. In addition, the deformation pattern inferred from satellite observations suggested the activation of a multi-fault structure, that is coherent to the complexity and the extension of the geological surface deformation. We investigated the role of multi-fault ruptures and we found that this event revealed an extraordinary complexity of the rupture geometry and evolution: the coseismic rupture propagated almost simultaneously on a normal fault and on a blind fault

Dynamic Earthquake Triggering on Seismogenic Faults in Oklahoma

Science.gov (United States)

Qin, Y.; Chen, X.; Peng, Z.; Aiken, C.

2016-12-01

Regions with high pore pressure are generally more susceptible to dynamic triggering from transient stress change caused by surface wave of distant earthquakes. The stress threshold from triggering studies can help understand the stress state of seismogenic faults. The recent dramatic seismicity increase in central US provides a rich database for assessing dynamic triggering phenomena. We begin our study by conducting a systematic analysis of dynamic triggering for the continental U.S using ANSS catalog (with magnitude of completeness Mc=3) from 49 global mainshocks (Ms>6.5, depth1kPa). We calculate β value for each 1° by 1° bins in 30 days before and 10 days after the mainshock. To identify regions that experience triggering from a distant mainshock, we generate a stacked map using β≥2 - which represents significant seismicity rate increase. As expected, the geothermal and volcanic fields in California show clear response to distant earthquakes. We also note areas in Oklahoma and north Texas show enhanced triggering, where wastewater-injection induced seismicity are occurring. Next we focus on Oklahoma and use a local catalog from Oklahoma Geological Survey with lower completeness threshold Mc to calculate the beta map in 0.2° by 0.2° bins for each selected mainshock to obtain finer spatial resolutions of the triggering behavior. For those grids with β larger than 2.0, we use waveforms from nearby stations to search for triggered events. The April 2015 M7.8 Nepal earthquake causes a statistically significant increase of local seismicity (β=3.5) in the Woodward area (west Oklahoma) during an on-going earthquake sequence. By visually examining the surface wave from the nearest station, we identify 3 larger local events, and 10 additional smaller events with weaker but discernable amplitude. Preliminary analysis shows that the triggering is related to Rayleigh wave, which would cause dilatational or shear stress changes along the strike direction of

Sensitivity of Induced Seismic Sequences to Rate-and-State Frictional Processes

Science.gov (United States)

Kroll, Kayla A.; Richards-Dinger, Keith B.; Dieterich, James H.

2017-12-01

It is well established that subsurface injection of fluids increases pore fluid pressures that may lead to shear failure along a preexisting fault surface. Concern among oil and gas, geothermal, and carbon storage operators has risen dramatically over the past decade due to the increase in the number and magnitude of induced earthquakes. Efforts to mitigate the risk associated with injection-induced earthquakes include modeling of the interaction between fluids and earthquake faults. Here we investigate this relationship with simulations that couple a geomechanical reservoir model and RSQSim, a physics-based earthquake simulator. RSQSim employs rate- and state-dependent friction (RSF) that enables the investigation of the time-dependent nature of earthquake sequences. We explore the effect of two RSF parameters and normal stress on the spatiotemporal characteristics of injection-induced seismicity. We perform >200 simulations to systematically investigate the effect of these model components on the evolution of induced seismicity sequences and compare the spatiotemporal characteristics of our synthetic catalogs to observations of induced earthquakes. We find that the RSF parameters control the ability of seismicity to migrate away from the injection well, the total number and maximum magnitude of induced events. Additionally, the RSF parameters control the occurrence/absence of premonitory events. Lastly, we find that earthquake stress drops can be modulated by the normal stress and/or the RSF parameters. Insight gained from this study can aid in further development of models that address best practice protocols for injection operations, site-specific models of injection-induced earthquakes, and probabilistic hazard and risk assessments.

Analisi teorico-sperimentale di collegamenti dissipativi a parziale ripristino di resistenza in strutture intelaiate in acciaio

OpenAIRE

Latour, Massimo

2011-01-01

2009 - 2010 Before seismic events of Northridge (Los Angeles, 17 January 1994) and Hyogoken-Nanbu (Kobe, 17 January 1995) MRFs were supposed to be the most reliable seismic resistant systems due to the high number of dissipative zones that are able to develop Before these earthquakes, especially in United States, MRFs were realized, generally, by adopting fully welded connections, which, at the time, were retained to perform better compared to other joint typologies. In a...

Sloped Connections and Connections with Fillet Welded Continuity Plates for Seismic Design of Special Moment Frames

OpenAIRE

Mashayekh, Adel

2017-01-01

Steel Special Moment Frames (SMF) are one of the most popular lateral force-resisting systems for multistory building construction in high seismic regions due to their architectural versatility. With a significant amount of research that was conducted after the 1994 Northridge, California earthquake, AISC has published design guidelines (AISC 341 and AISC 358) to avoid brittle fracture of beam-to-column welded moment connections that occurred in more than 100 steel buildings. This dissertat...

The Emilia 2012 sequence: a macroseismic survey

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Andrea Tertulliani

2012-10-01

Full Text Available On May 20, 2012, at 4:03 local time (2:03 UTC, a large part of the Po Valley between the cities of Ferrara, Modena and Mantova was struck by a damaging earthquake (Ml 5.9. The epicenter was located by the Istituto Nazionale di Geo-fisica e Vulcanologia (INGV seismic network [ISIDe 2010] at 44.889 ˚N and 11.228 ˚E, approximately 30 km west of Ferrara (Figure 1. The event was preceded by a foreshock that occurred at 01:13 local time, with a magnitude of Ml 4. The mainshock started an intense seismic sequence that lasted for weeks, counting more than 2,000 events, six of which had Ml >5. The strongest earthquakes of this sequence occurred on May 29, 2012, with Ml 5.8 and Ml 5.3, recorded at 9:00 and 12:55 local time, respectively. The epicenters of the May 29, 2012, events were located at the westernmost part of the rupture zone of the May 20, 2012, earthquake (Figure 2. The May 20 and 29, 2012, earthquakes were felt through the whole of northern and central Italy, and as far as Switzerland, Slovenia, Croatia, Austria, south-eastern France and southern Germany. Historical information reveals that the seismic activity in the Po Valley is moderate […

Earthquake Culture: A Significant Element in Earthquake Disaster Risk Assessment and Earthquake Disaster Risk Management

OpenAIRE

Ibrion, Mihaela

2018-01-01

This book chapter brings to attention the dramatic impact of large earthquake disasters on local communities and society and highlights the necessity of building and enhancing the earthquake culture. Iran was considered as a research case study and fifteen large earthquake disasters in Iran were investigated and analyzed over more than a century-time period. It was found that the earthquake culture in Iran was and is still conditioned by many factors or parameters which are not integrated and...

Segmented seismicity of the Mw 6.2 Baladeh earthquake sequence (Alborz mountains, Iran) revealed from regional moment tensors

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Donner, Stefanie; Rössler, Dirk; Krüger, Frank

2013-01-01

The M w 6.2 Baladeh earthquake occurred on 28 May 2004 in the Alborz Mountains, northern Iran. This earthquake was the first strong shock in this intracontinental orogen for which digital regional broadband data are available. The Baladeh event provides a rare opportunity to study fault geometry...... model, regional waveform data of the mainshock and larger aftershocks (M w  ≥3.3) were inverted for moment tensors. For the Baladeh mainshock, this included inversion for kinematic parameters. All analysed earthquakes show dominant thrust mechanisms at depths between 14 and 26 km, with NW–SE striking...

Understanding Animal Detection of Precursor Earthquake Sounds.

Science.gov (United States)

Garstang, Michael; Kelley, Michael C

2017-08-31

We use recent research to provide an explanation of how animals might detect earthquakes before they occur. While the intrinsic value of such warnings is immense, we show that the complexity of the process may result in inconsistent responses of animals to the possible precursor signal. Using the results of our research, we describe a logical but complex sequence of geophysical events triggered by precursor earthquake crustal movements that ultimately result in a sound signal detectable by animals. The sound heard by animals occurs only when metal or other surfaces (glass) respond to vibrations produced by electric currents induced by distortions of the earth's electric fields caused by the crustal movements. A combination of existing measurement systems combined with more careful monitoring of animal response could nevertheless be of value, particularly in remote locations.

Earthquakes and Earthquake Engineering. LC Science Tracer Bullet.

Science.gov (United States)

Buydos, John F., Comp.

An earthquake is a shaking of the ground resulting from a disturbance in the earth's interior. Seismology is the (1) study of earthquakes; (2) origin, propagation, and energy of seismic phenomena; (3) prediction of these phenomena; and (4) investigation of the structure of the earth. Earthquake engineering or engineering seismology includes the…

The evolution of hillslope strength following large earthquakes

Science.gov (United States)

Brain, Matthew; Rosser, Nick; Tunstall, Neil

2017-04-01

Earthquake-induced landslides play an important role in the evolution of mountain landscapes. Earthquake ground shaking triggers near-instantaneous landsliding, but has also been shown to weaken hillslopes, preconditioning them for failure during subsequent seismicity and/or precipitation events. The temporal evolution of hillslope strength during and following primary seismicity, and if and how this ultimately results in failure, is poorly constrained due to the rarity of high-magnitude earthquakes and limited availability of suitable field datasets. We present results obtained from novel geotechnical laboratory tests to better constrain the mechanisms that control strength evolution in Earth materials of differing rheology. We consider how the strength of hillslope materials responds to ground-shaking events of different magnitude and if and how this persists to influence landslide activity during interseismic periods. We demonstrate the role of stress path and stress history, strain rate and foreshock and aftershock sequences in controlling the evolution of hillslope strength and stability. Critically, we show how hillslopes can be strengthened rather than weakened in some settings, challenging conventional assumptions. On the basis of our laboratory data, we consider the implications for earthquake-induced geomorphic perturbations in mountain landscapes over multiple timescales and in different seismogenic settings.

Aspect of the 2011 off the Pacific coast Tohoku Earthquake, Japan

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kato, Aitaro

2012-01-01

The 2011 off the Pacific coast of Tohoku Earthquake (Tohoku-Oki), Japan, was the first magnitude (M) 9 subduction megathrust event to be recorded by a dense network of seismic, geodetic, and tsunami observations. I here review the Tohoku-Oki earthquake in terms of, 1) asperity model, 2) earthquake source observations, 3) precedent processes, 4) postseismic slip (afetrslip). Based on finite source models of the Tohoku-Oki mainshock, the coseismic fault slip exceeded 30 m at shallow part of the subduction zone off-shore of Miyagi. The rupture reached the trench axis, producing a large uplift therein, which was likely an important factor generating devastating tsunami waves. The mainshock was preceded by slow-slip transients propagating toward the initial rupture point, which may have caused substantial stress loading, prompting the unstable dynamic rupture of the mainshock. Furthermore, a sequence of M 7-class interplate earthquakes and subsequent large afterslip events, those occurred before the mainshock rupture, might be interpreted as preparation stage of the earthquake generation. Most of slip released by the postseismic deformation following the Tohoku-Oki mainshock is located in the region peripheral to the large coseismic slip area. (author)

Analog earthquakes

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hofmann, R.B.

1995-01-01

Analogs are used to understand complex or poorly understood phenomena for which little data may be available at the actual repository site. Earthquakes are complex phenomena, and they can have a large number of effects on the natural system, as well as on engineered structures. Instrumental data close to the source of large earthquakes are rarely obtained. The rare events for which measurements are available may be used, with modfications, as analogs for potential large earthquakes at sites where no earthquake data are available. In the following, several examples of nuclear reactor and liquified natural gas facility siting are discussed. A potential use of analog earthquakes is proposed for a high-level nuclear waste (HLW) repository

Nucleation process and dynamic inversion of the Mw 6.9 Valparaíso 2017 earthquake in Central Chile

Science.gov (United States)

Ruiz, S.; Aden-Antoniow, F.; Baez, J. C., Sr.; Otarola, C., Sr.; Potin, B.; DelCampo, F., Sr.; Poli, P.; Flores, C.; Satriano, C.; Felipe, L., Sr.; Madariaga, R. I.

2017-12-01

The Valparaiso 2017 sequence occurred in mega-thrust Central Chile, an active zone where the last mega-earthquake occurred in 1730. An intense seismicity occurred 2 days before of the Mw 6.9 main-shock. A slow trench ward movement observed in the coastal GPS antennas accompanied the foreshock seismicity. Following the Mw 6.9 earthquake the seismicity migrated 30 Km to South-East. This sequence was well recorded by multi-parametric stations composed by GPS, Broad-Band and Strong Motion instruments. We built a seismic catalogue with 2329 events associated to Valparaiso sequence, with a magnitude completeness of Ml 2.8. We located all the seismicity considering a new 3D velocity model obtained for the Valparaiso zone, and compute the moment tensor for events with magnitude larger than Ml 3.5, and finally studied the presence of repeating earthquakes. The main-shock is studied by performing a dynamic inversion using the strong motion records and an elliptical patch approach to characterize the rupture process. During the two days nucleation stage, we observe a compact zone of repeater events. In the meantime a westward GPS movement was recorded in the coastal GPS stations. The aseismic moment estimated from GPS is larger than the foreshocks cumulative moment, suggesting the presence of a slow slip event, which potentially triggered the 6.9 mainshock. The Mw 6.9 earthquake is associated to rupture of an elliptical asperity of semi-axis of 10 km and 5 km, with a sub-shear rupture, stress drop of 11.71 MPa, yield stress of 17.21 MPa, slip weakening of 0.65 m and kappa value of 1.70. This sequence occurs close to, and with some similar characteristics that 1985 Valparaíso Mw 8.0 earthquake. The rupture of this asperity could stress more the highly locked Central Chile zone where a mega-thrust earthquake like 1730 is expected.

The 2010 M w 7.2 El Mayor-Cucapah Earthquake Sequence, Baja California, Mexico and Southernmost California, USA: Active Seismotectonics along the Mexican Pacific Margin

Science.gov (United States)

Hauksson, Egill; Stock, Joann; Hutton, Kate; Yang, Wenzheng; Vidal-Villegas, J. Antonio; Kanamori, Hiroo

2011-08-01

The El Mayor-Cucapah earthquake sequence started with a few foreshocks in March 2010, and a second sequence of 15 foreshocks of M > 2 (up to M4.4) that occurred during the 24 h preceding the mainshock. The foreshocks occurred along a north-south trend near the mainshock epicenter. The M w 7.2 mainshock on April 4 exhibited complex faulting, possibly starting with a ~M6 normal faulting event, followed ~15 s later by the main event, which included simultaneous normal and right-lateral strike-slip faulting. The aftershock zone extends for 120 km from the south end of the Elsinore fault zone north of the US-Mexico border almost to the northern tip of the Gulf of California. The waveform-relocated aftershocks form two abutting clusters, each about 50 km long, as well as a 10 km north-south aftershock zone just north of the epicenter of the mainshock. Even though the Baja California data are included, the magnitude of completeness and the hypocentral errors increase gradually with distance south of the international border. The spatial distribution of large aftershocks is asymmetric with five M5+ aftershocks located to the south of the mainshock, and only one M5.7 aftershock, but numerous smaller aftershocks to the north. Further, the northwest aftershock cluster exhibits complex faulting on both northwest and northeast planes. Thus, the aftershocks also express a complex pattern of stress release along strike. The overall rate of decay of the aftershocks is similar to the rate of decay of a generic California aftershock sequence. In addition, some triggered seismicity was recorded along the Elsinore and San Jacinto faults to the north, but significant northward migration of aftershocks has not occurred. The synthesis of the El Mayor-Cucapah sequence reveals transtensional regional tectonics, including the westward growth of the Mexicali Valley and the transfer of Pacific-North America plate motion from the Gulf of California in the south into the southernmost San

Self-organization of spatio-temporal earthquake clusters

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

S. Hainzl

2000-01-01

Full Text Available Cellular automaton versions of the Burridge-Knopoff model have been shown to reproduce the power law distribution of event sizes; that is, the Gutenberg-Richter law. However, they have failed to reproduce the occurrence of foreshock and aftershock sequences correlated with large earthquakes. We show that in the case of partial stress recovery due to transient creep occurring subsequently to earthquakes in the crust, such spring-block systems self-organize into a statistically stationary state characterized by a power law distribution of fracture sizes as well as by foreshocks and aftershocks accompanying large events. In particular, the increase of foreshock and the decrease of aftershock activity can be described by, aside from a prefactor, the same Omori law. The exponent of the Omori law depends on the relaxation time and on the spatial scale of transient creep. Further investigations concerning the number of aftershocks, the temporal variation of aftershock magnitudes, and the waiting time distribution support the conclusion that this model, even "more realistic" physics in missed, captures in some ways the origin of the size distribution as well as spatio-temporal clustering of earthquakes.

Succession of earthquakes in the Ebro Delta. A sequence to research pupils’ ideas and the prac tice of using evidence

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Blanca Puig Mauriz

2015-01-01

Full Text Available A “socially live” issue related to Geology is dealt with: the controversy surrounding the succession of earthquakes in the Ebro Delta (Spain. This article examines both students’ ideas about earthquakes and the practice of using evidence in the context of choosing a causal explanation of Delta’s earthquakes. The study is part of the researches on reasoning about socioscientific issues in Geology. Three groups are involved: one belonging to CSE 4th grade (students aged from 16 to 17 and two to baccalaureate 1st grade (aged from 17 to 18. The results indicate that most of students understand an earthquake as a common phenomenon, and relate it exclusively to the tectonics plates. Regarding the controversy of Ebro Delta most choose as the cause of earthquakes the combination of natural causes and human activity, and focus on building an explanation, rather than justify their choice based on evidence.

Fault healing promotes high-frequency earthquakes in laboratory experiments and on natural faults

Science.gov (United States)

McLaskey, Gregory C.; Thomas, Amanda M.; Glaser, Steven D.; Nadeau, Robert M.

2012-01-01

Faults strengthen or heal with time in stationary contact and this healing may be an essential ingredient for the generation of earthquakes. In the laboratory, healing is thought to be the result of thermally activated mechanisms that weld together micrometre-sized asperity contacts on the fault surface, but the relationship between laboratory measures of fault healing and the seismically observable properties of earthquakes is at present not well defined. Here we report on laboratory experiments and seismological observations that show how the spectral properties of earthquakes vary as a function of fault healing time. In the laboratory, we find that increased healing causes a disproportionately large amount of high-frequency seismic radiation to be produced during fault rupture. We observe a similar connection between earthquake spectra and recurrence time for repeating earthquake sequences on natural faults. Healing rates depend on pressure, temperature and mineralogy, so the connection between seismicity and healing may help to explain recent observations of large megathrust earthquakes which indicate that energetic, high-frequency seismic radiation originates from locations that are distinct from the geodetically inferred locations of large-amplitude fault slip

Seismic dynamics in advance and after the recent strong earthquakes in Italy and New Zealand

Science.gov (United States)

Nekrasova, A.; Kossobokov, V. G.

2017-12-01

We consider seismic events as a sequence of avalanches in self-organized system of blocks-and-faults of the Earth lithosphere and characterize earthquake series with the distribution of the control parameter, η = τ × 10B × (5-M) × L C of the Unified Scaling Law for Earthquakes, USLE (where τ is inter-event time, B is analogous to the Gutenberg-Richter b-value, and C is fractal dimension of seismic locus). A systematic analysis of earthquake series in Central Italy and New Zealand, 1993-2017, suggests the existence, in a long-term, of different rather steady levels of seismic activity characterized with near constant values of η, which, in mid-term, intermittently switch at times of transitions associated with the strong catastrophic events. On such a transition, seismic activity, in short-term, may follow different scenarios with inter-event time scaling of different kind, including constant, logarithmic, power law, exponential rise/decay or a mixture of those. The results do not support the presence of universality in seismic energy release. The observed variability of seismic activity in advance and after strong (M6.0+) earthquakes in Italy and significant (M7.0+) earthquakes in New Zealand provides important constraints on modelling realistic earthquake sequences by geophysicists and can be used to improve local seismic hazard assessments including earthquake forecast/prediction methodologies. The transitions of seismic regime in Central Italy and New Zealand started in 2016 are still in progress and require special attention and geotechnical monitoring. It would be premature to make any kind of definitive conclusions on the level of seismic hazard which is evidently high at this particular moment of time in both regions. The study supported by the Russian Science Foundation Grant No.16-17-00093.

Turkish Compulsory Earthquake Insurance and "Istanbul Earthquake

Science.gov (United States)

Durukal, E.; Sesetyan, K.; Erdik, M.

2009-04-01

The city of Istanbul will likely experience substantial direct and indirect losses as a result of a future large (M=7+) earthquake with an annual probability of occurrence of about 2%. This paper dwells on the expected building losses in terms of probable maximum and average annualized losses and discusses the results from the perspective of the compulsory earthquake insurance scheme operational in the country. The TCIP system is essentially designed to operate in Turkey with sufficient penetration to enable the accumulation of funds in the pool. Today, with only 20% national penetration, and about approximately one-half of all policies in highly earthquake prone areas (one-third in Istanbul) the system exhibits signs of adverse selection, inadequate premium structure and insufficient funding. Our findings indicate that the national compulsory earthquake insurance pool in Turkey will face difficulties in covering incurring building losses in Istanbul in the occurrence of a large earthquake. The annualized earthquake losses in Istanbul are between 140-300 million. Even if we assume that the deductible is raised to 15%, the earthquake losses that need to be paid after a large earthquake in Istanbul will be at about 2.5 Billion, somewhat above the current capacity of the TCIP. Thus, a modification to the system for the insured in Istanbul (or Marmara region) is necessary. This may mean an increase in the premia and deductible rates, purchase of larger re-insurance covers and development of a claim processing system. Also, to avoid adverse selection, the penetration rates elsewhere in Turkey need to be increased substantially. A better model would be introduction of parametric insurance for Istanbul. By such a model the losses will not be indemnified, however will be directly calculated on the basis of indexed ground motion levels and damages. The immediate improvement of a parametric insurance model over the existing one will be the elimination of the claim processing

Earthquake potential revealed by tidal influence on earthquake size-frequency statistics

Science.gov (United States)

Ide, Satoshi; Yabe, Suguru; Tanaka, Yoshiyuki

2016-11-01

The possibility that tidal stress can trigger earthquakes is long debated. In particular, a clear causal relationship between small earthquakes and the phase of tidal stress is elusive. However, tectonic tremors deep within subduction zones are highly sensitive to tidal stress levels, with tremor rate increasing at an exponential rate with rising tidal stress. Thus, slow deformation and the possibility of earthquakes at subduction plate boundaries may be enhanced during periods of large tidal stress. Here we calculate the tidal stress history, and specifically the amplitude of tidal stress, on a fault plane in the two weeks before large earthquakes globally, based on data from the global, Japanese, and Californian earthquake catalogues. We find that very large earthquakes, including the 2004 Sumatran, 2010 Maule earthquake in Chile and the 2011 Tohoku-Oki earthquake in Japan, tend to occur near the time of maximum tidal stress amplitude. This tendency is not obvious for small earthquakes. However, we also find that the fraction of large earthquakes increases (the b-value of the Gutenberg-Richter relation decreases) as the amplitude of tidal shear stress increases. The relationship is also reasonable, considering the well-known relationship between stress and the b-value. This suggests that the probability of a tiny rock failure expanding to a gigantic rupture increases with increasing tidal stress levels. We conclude that large earthquakes are more probable during periods of high tidal stress.

Engineering geological aspect of Gorkha Earthquake 2015, Nepal

Science.gov (United States)

Adhikari, Basanta Raj; Andermann, Christoff; Cook, Kristen

2016-04-01

the ground especially in the epicenter area. Similarly, liquefaction occurred in the different parts of Kathmandu valley. However, the recording in KATNP and DMG indicate that the ground motions that resulted from the quake were not strong enough to fully weaken liquefiable materials and in most cases incipient or "marginal" liquefaction was observed. Here, we will present a compilation of the different types of mass wasting that have occurred in this region and discuss their location and hazard potential for local communities. References: Adhikari, L.B., Gautam, U.P., Koirala, B.P., Bhattarai, M., Kandel, T., Gupta, R.M., Timsina, C., Maharjan, N., Maharjan, K., Dhahal, T., Hoste-Colomer, R., Cano, Y., Dandine, M., Guhem, A., Merrer, S., Roudil, P., Bollinger, L., 2015, The aftershock sequence of the 2015 April 25 Gorkha-Nepal Earthquake, Geophysical Journal International, v. 203 (3), pp. 2119-2124. Earthquake Without Frontiers, 2015, http://ewf.nerc.ac.uk/2015/05/12/nepal-update-on-landslide-hazard-following-12-may-2015-earthquake/ GEER, 2015: Geotechnical Extreme Event Reconnaissance http://www.geerassociation.org Moss, R.E.S., Thompson, E.M., Kieffer, D.S., Tiwari, B., Hashash, Y.M.A., Acharya, I., Adhikari B.R., Asimaki, D., Clahan, K.B., Collins, B.D., Dahal, S., Jibson, R.W., Khadka, D., Machdonald, A. Madugo C.L., Mason, H.B., Pehlivan., M., Rayamajhi, D. and Upreti. S., 2015, Geotechnical Effects of the 2015 AMgnitude 7.8 Gorkah, Nepal, Earthquake and Aftershocks, seismological Research Letters, v. 86(6), PP. 1514-1523 National Seismoligical Center, 2015, http://www.seismonepal.gov.np/

Local magnitude, duration magnitude and seismic moment of Dahshour 1992 earthquakes

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Dessokey, M.M.; Abdelwahed, M.F. [National research Institute of Astronomy and Geophysics, Cairo (Egypt). Dept. of Seismology; Hussein, H.M.; Abdelrahman, El. M. [Cairo Univ., Cairo (Egypt). Dept. of Geophysics

2000-02-01

Local magnitude M{sub L} have been calculated for 56 earthquakes of the Dahshour 1992 sequence using simulated records of the KEG broadband station and estimated calibration function of the area. The measurements, derived by the simulated Wood Anderson seismograms, are analysed and discussed.

The Macroseismic Intensity Distribution of the 30 October 2016 Earthquake in Central Italy (Mw 6.6): Seismotectonic Implications

Science.gov (United States)

Galli, Paolo; Castenetto, Sergio; Peronace, Edoardo

2017-10-01

The central Italy Apennines were rocket in 2016 by the strongest earthquakes of the past 35 years. Two main shocks (Mw 6.2 and Mw 6.6) between the end of August and October caused the death of almost 300 people, and the destruction of 50 villages and small towns scattered along 40 km in the hanging wall of the N165° striking Mount Vettore fault system, that is, the structure responsible for the earthquakes. The 24 August southern earthquake, besides causing all the casualties, razed to the ground the small medieval town of Amatrice and dozens of hamlets around it. The 30 October main shock crushed definitely all the villages of the whole epicentral area (up to 11 intensity degree), extending northward the level of destruction and inducing heavy damage even to the 30 km far Camerino town. The survey of the macroseismic effects started the same day of the first main shock and continued during the whole seismic sequence, even during and after the strong earthquakes at the end of October, allowing the definition of a detailed picture of the damage distribution, day by day. Here we present the results of the final survey in terms of Mercalli-Cancani-Sieberg intensity, which account for the cumulative effects of the whole 2016 sequence (465 intensity data points, besides 435 related to the 24 August and 54 to the 26 October events, respectively). The distribution of the highest intensity data points evidenced the lack of any possible overlap between the 2016 earthquakes and the strongest earthquakes of the region, making this sequence a unique case in the seismic history of Italy. In turn, the cross matching with published paleoseismic data provided some interesting insights concerning the seismogenic behavior of the Mount Vettore fault in comparison with other active normal faults of the region.

Proceedings of the 11th United States-Japan natural resources panel for earthquake research, Napa Valley, California, November 16–18, 2016

Science.gov (United States)

Detweiler, Shane; Pollitz, Fred

2017-10-18

The UJNR Panel on Earthquake Research promotes advanced research toward a more fundamental understanding of the earthquake process and hazard estimation. The Eleventh Joint meeting was extremely beneficial in furthering cooperation and deepening understanding of problems common to both Japan and the United States.The meeting included productive exchanges of information on approaches to systematic observation and modeling of earthquake processes. Regarding the earthquake and tsunami of March 2011 off the Pacific coast of Tohoku and the 2016 Kumamoto earthquake sequence, the Panel recognizes that further efforts are necessary to achieve our common goal of reducing earthquake risk through close collaboration and focused discussions at the 12th UJNR meeting.

Integrated geophysical characteristics of the 2015 Illapel, Chile, earthquake

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Herman, Matthew W.; Nealy, Jennifer L.; Yeck, William L.; Barnhart, William D.; Hayes, Gavin P.; Furlong, Kevin P.; Benz, Harley M.

2017-01-01

On 16 September 2015, a Mw 8.3 earthquake ruptured the subduction zone offshore of Illapel, Chile, generating an aftershock sequence with 14 Mw 6.0–7.0 events. A double source W phase moment tensor inversion consists of a Mw 7.2 subevent and the main Mw 8.2 phase. We determine two slip models for

Earthquake, GIS and multimedia. The 1883 Casamicciola earthquake

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

M. Rebuffat

1995-06-01

Full Text Available A series of multimedia monographs concerning the main seismic events that have affected the Italian territory are in the process of being produced for the Documental Integrated Multimedia Project (DIMP started by the Italian National Seismic Survey (NSS. The purpose of the project is to reconstruct the historical record of earthquakes and promote an earthquake public education. Producing the monographs. developed in ARC INFO and working in UNIX. involved designing a special filing and management methodology to integrate heterogeneous information (images, papers, cartographies, etc.. This paper describes the possibilities of a GIS (Geographic Information System in the filing and management of documental information. As an example we present the first monograph on the 1883 Casamicciola earthquake. on the island of Ischia (Campania, Italy. This earthquake is particularly interesting for the following reasons: I historical-cultural context (first destructive seismic event after the unification of Italy; 2 its features (volcanic earthquake; 3 the socioeconomic consequences caused at such an important seaside resort.

OMG Earthquake! Can Twitter improve earthquake response?

Science.gov (United States)

Earle, P. S.; Guy, M.; Ostrum, C.; Horvath, S.; Buckmaster, R. A.

2009-12-01

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) is investigating how the social networking site Twitter, a popular service for sending and receiving short, public, text messages, can augment its earthquake response products and the delivery of hazard information. The goal is to gather near real-time, earthquake-related messages (tweets) and provide geo-located earthquake detections and rough maps of the corresponding felt areas. Twitter and other social Internet technologies are providing the general public with anecdotal earthquake hazard information before scientific information has been published from authoritative sources. People local to an event often publish information within seconds via these technologies. In contrast, depending on the location of the earthquake, scientific alerts take between 2 to 20 minutes. Examining the tweets following the March 30, 2009, M4.3 Morgan Hill earthquake shows it is possible (in some cases) to rapidly detect and map the felt area of an earthquake using Twitter responses. Within a minute of the earthquake, the frequency of “earthquake” tweets rose above the background level of less than 1 per hour to about 150 per minute. Using the tweets submitted in the first minute, a rough map of the felt area can be obtained by plotting the tweet locations. Mapping the tweets from the first six minutes shows observations extending from Monterey to Sacramento, similar to the perceived shaking region mapped by the USGS “Did You Feel It” system. The tweets submitted after the earthquake also provided (very) short first-impression narratives from people who experienced the shaking. Accurately assessing the potential and robustness of a Twitter-based system is difficult because only tweets spanning the previous seven days can be searched, making a historical study impossible. We have, however, been archiving tweets for several months, and it is clear that significant limitations do exist. The main drawback is the lack of quantitative information

Seismicity Controlled by a Frictional Afterslip During a Small-Magnitude Seismic Sequence (ML Taiwan

Science.gov (United States)

Canitano, Alexandre; Godano, Maxime; Hsu, Ya-Ju; Lee, Hsin-Ming; Linde, Alan T.; Sacks, Selwyn

2018-02-01

We report evidence for frictional afterslip at shallow depths (about 5 to 7 km) during a small-magnitude seismic sequence (with MLTaiwan. The afterslip, which was recorded by a nearby borehole dilatometer, lasted about a month with a cumulative geodetic moment magnitude of 4.8 ± 0.2. The afterslip comprised two stages and controlled the aftershock sequence. The first postseismic stage, which followed a ML 4.6 earthquake, lasted about 6 h and mostly controlled the ruptures of neighboring asperities (e.g., multiplets) near the hypocenter. Then, a 4 week duration large afterslip event following a ML 4.9 earthquake controlled the rate of aftershocks during its first 2 days through brittle creep. The study presents a rare case of simultaneous seismological and geodetic observations for afterslip following earthquakes with magnitude lower than 5. Furthermore, the geodetic moment of the postseismic phase is at least equivalent to the coseismic moment of the sequence.

Earthquake Early Warning Systems

OpenAIRE

Pei-Yang Lin

2011-01-01

Because of Taiwan’s unique geographical environment, earthquake disasters occur frequently in Taiwan. The Central Weather Bureau collated earthquake data from between 1901 and 2006 (Central Weather Bureau, 2007) and found that 97 earthquakes had occurred, of which, 52 resulted in casualties. The 921 Chichi Earthquake had the most profound impact. Because earthquakes have instant destructive power and current scientific technologies cannot provide precise early warnings in advance, earthquake ...

Sequence of deep-focus earthquakes beneath the Bonin Islands identified by the NIED nationwide dense seismic networks Hi-net and F-net

Science.gov (United States)

Takemura, Shunsuke; Saito, Tatsuhiko; Shiomi, Katsuhiko

2017-03-01

An M 6.8 ( Mw 6.5) deep-focus earthquake occurred beneath the Bonin Islands at 21:18 (JST) on June 23, 2015. Observed high-frequency (>1 Hz) seismograms across Japan, which contain several sets of P- and S-wave arrivals for the 10 min after the origin time, indicate that moderate-to-large earthquakes occurred sequentially around Japan. Snapshots of the seismic energy propagation illustrate that after one deep-focus earthquake occurred beneath the Sea of Japan, two deep-focus earthquakes occurred sequentially after the first ( Mw 6.5) event beneath the Bonin Islands in the next 4 min. The United States Geological Survey catalog includes three Bonin deep-focus earthquakes with similar hypocenter locations, but their estimated magnitudes are inconsistent with seismograms from across Japan. The maximum-amplitude patterns of the latter two earthquakes were similar to that of the first Bonin earthquake, which indicates similar locations and mechanisms. Furthermore, based on the ratios of the S-wave amplitudes to that of the first event, the magnitudes of the latter events are estimated as M 6.5 ± 0.02 and M 5.8 ± 0.02, respectively. Three magnitude-6-class earthquakes occurred sequentially within 4 min in the Pacific slab at 480 km depth, where complex heterogeneities exist within the slab.[Figure not available: see fulltext.

Twitter earthquake detection: Earthquake monitoring in a social world

Science.gov (United States)

Earle, Paul S.; Bowden, Daniel C.; Guy, Michelle R.

2011-01-01

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) is investigating how the social networking site Twitter, a popular service for sending and receiving short, public text messages, can augment USGS earthquake response products and the delivery of hazard information. Rapid detection and qualitative assessment of shaking events are possible because people begin sending public Twitter messages (tweets) with in tens of seconds after feeling shaking. Here we present and evaluate an earthquake detection procedure that relies solely on Twitter data. A tweet-frequency time series constructed from tweets containing the word "earthquake" clearly shows large peaks correlated with the origin times of widely felt events. To identify possible earthquakes, we use a short-term-average, long-term-average algorithm. When tuned to a moderate sensitivity, the detector finds 48 globally-distributed earthquakes with only two false triggers in five months of data. The number of detections is small compared to the 5,175 earthquakes in the USGS global earthquake catalog for the same five-month time period, and no accurate location or magnitude can be assigned based on tweet data alone. However, Twitter earthquake detections are not without merit. The detections are generally caused by widely felt events that are of more immediate interest than those with no human impact. The detections are also fast; about 75% occur within two minutes of the origin time. This is considerably faster than seismographic detections in poorly instrumented regions of the world. The tweets triggering the detections also provided very short first-impression narratives from people who experienced the shaking.

Ground water and earthquakes

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Ts' ai, T H

1977-11-01

Chinese folk wisdom has long seen a relationship between ground water and earthquakes. Before an earthquake there is often an unusual change in the ground water level and volume of flow. Changes in the amount of particulate matter in ground water as well as changes in color, bubbling, gas emission, and noises and geysers are also often observed before earthquakes. Analysis of these features can help predict earthquakes. Other factors unrelated to earthquakes can cause some of these changes, too. As a first step it is necessary to find sites which are sensitive to changes in ground stress to be used as sensor points for predicting earthquakes. The necessary features are described. Recording of seismic waves of earthquake aftershocks is also an important part of earthquake predictions.

Reassessment of source parameters for three major earthquakes in the East African rift system from historical seismograms and bulletins

OpenAIRE

Ayele, A.; Kulhánek, O.

2000-01-01

Source parameters for three majo earthquakes in the East African rift are re-computed from historical seismograms and bulletins. The main shock and the largest foreshock of the August 25, 1906 earthquake sequence in the main Ethiopian rift are re-located on the eastern shoulder of the rift segment.The magnitude of the main shock is estimated to be 6.5 (Mw) from spectral analysis. The December 13, 1910 earthquake in the Rukwa rift (Western Tanzania) indicated a significant strike-slip componen...

Transient postseismic mantle relaxation following 2004 Sumatra earthquake: implications of seismic vulnerability in the Andaman-Nicobar region

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

C. D. Reddy

2012-02-01

Full Text Available Throughout the world, the tsunami generation potential of some large under-sea earthquakes significantly contributes to regional seismic hazard, which gives rise to significant risk in the near-shore provinces where human settlements are in sizeable population, often referred to as coastal seismic risk. In this context, we show from the pertinent GPS data that the transient stresses generated by the viscoelastic relaxation process taking place in the mantle is capable of rupturing major faults by stress transfer from the mantle through the lower crust including triggering additional rupture on the other major faults. We also infer that postseismic relaxation at relatively large depths can push some of the fault segments to reactivation causing failure sequences. As an illustration to these effects, we consider in detail the earthquake sequence comprising six events, starting from the main event of M_w = 7.5, on 10 August 2009 and tapering off to a small earthquake of M_w = 4.5 on 2 February 2011 over a period of eighteen months in the intensely seismic Andaman Islands between India and Myanmar. The persisting transient stresses, spatio-temporal seismic pattern, modeled Coulomb stress changes, and the southward migration of earthquake activity has increased the probability of moderate earthquakes recurring in the northern Andaman region, particularly closer to or somewhat south of Diglipur.

Southern California Earthquake Center/Undergraduate Studies in Earthquake Information Technology (SCEC/UseIT): Towards the Next Generation of Internship

Science.gov (United States)

Perry, S.; Benthien, M.; Jordan, T. H.

2005-12-01

The SCEC/UseIT internship program is training the next generation of earthquake scientist, with methods that can be adapted to other disciplines. UseIT interns work collaboratively, in multi-disciplinary teams, conducting computer science research that is needed by earthquake scientists. Since 2002, the UseIT program has welcomed 64 students, in some two dozen majors, at all class levels, from schools around the nation. Each summer''s work is posed as a ``Grand Challenge.'' The students then organize themselves into project teams, decide how to proceed, and pool their diverse talents and backgrounds. They have traditional mentors, who provide advice and encouragement, but they also mentor one another, and this has proved to be a powerful relationship. Most begin with fear that their Grand Challenge is impossible, and end with excitement and pride about what they have accomplished. The 22 UseIT interns in summer, 2005, were primarily computer science and engineering majors, with others in geology, mathematics, English, digital media design, physics, history, and cinema. The 2005 Grand Challenge was to "build an earthquake monitoring system" to aid scientists who must visualize rapidly evolving earthquake sequences and convey information to emergency personnel and the public. Most UseIT interns were engaged in software engineering, bringing new datasets and functionality to SCEC-VDO (Virtual Display of Objects), a 3D visualization software that was prototyped by interns last year, using Java3D and an extensible, plug-in architecture based on the Eclipse Integrated Development Environment. Other UseIT interns used SCEC-VDO to make animated movies, and experimented with imagery in order to communicate concepts and events in earthquake science. One movie-making project included the creation of an assessment to test the effectiveness of the movie''s educational message. Finally, one intern created an interactive, multimedia presentation of the UseIT program.

Aftershock Duration of the 1976 Ms 7.8 Tangshan Earthquake: Implication for the Seismic Hazard Model with a Sensitivity Analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Zhong, Q.; Shi, B.

2011-12-01

The disaster of the Ms 7.8 earthquake occurred in Tangshan, China, on July 28th 1976 caused at least 240,000 deaths. The mainshock was followed by two largest aftershocks, the Ms 7.1 occurred after 15 hr later of the mainshock, and the Ms 6.9 occurred on 15 November. The aftershock sequence is lasting to date, making the regional seismic activity rate around the Tangshan main fault much higher than that of before the main event. If these aftershocks are involved in the local main event catalog for the PSHA calculation purpose, the resultant seismic hazard calculation will be overestimated in this region and underestimated in other place. However, it is always difficult to accurately determine the time duration of aftershock sequences and identifies the aftershocks from main event catalog for seismologist. In this study, by using theoretical inference and empirical relation given by Dieterich, we intended to derive the plausible time length of aftershock sequences of the Ms 7.8 Tangshan earthquake. The aftershock duration from log-log regression approach gives us about 120 years according to the empirical Omori's relation. Based on Dietrich approach, it has been claimed that the aftershock duration is a function of remote shear stressing rate, normal stress acting on the fault plane, and fault frictional constitutive parameters. In general, shear stressing rate could be estimated in three ways: 1. Shear stressing rate could be written as a function of static stress drop and a mean earthquake recurrence time. In this case, the time length of aftershock sequences is about 70-100 years. However, since the recurrence time inherits a great deal of uncertainty. 2. Ziv and Rubin derived a general function between shear stressing rate, fault slip speed and fault width with a consideration that aftershock duration does not scale with mainshock magnitude. Therefore, from Ziv's consideration, the aftershock duration is about 80 years. 3. Shear stressing rate is also can be

Constraining the Long-Term Average of Earthquake Recurrence Intervals From Paleo- and Historic Earthquakes by Assimilating Information From Instrumental Seismicity

Science.gov (United States)

Zoeller, G.

2017-12-01

Paleo- and historic earthquakes are the most important source of information for the estimationof long-term recurrence intervals in fault zones, because sequences of paleoearthquakes cover more than one seismic cycle. On the other hand, these events are often rare, dating uncertainties are enormous and the problem of missing or misinterpreted events leads to additional problems. Taking these shortcomings into account, long-term recurrence intervals are usually unstable as long as no additional information are included. In the present study, we assume that the time to the next major earthquake depends on the rate of small and intermediate events between the large ones in terms of a ``clock-change'' model that leads to a Brownian Passage Time distribution for recurrence intervals. We take advantage of an earlier finding that the aperiodicity of this distribution can be related to the Gutenberg-Richter-b-value, which is usually around one and can be estimated easily from instrumental seismicity in the region under consideration. This allows to reduce the uncertainties in the estimation of the mean recurrence interval significantly, especially for short paleoearthquake sequences and high dating uncertainties. We present illustrative case studies from Southern California and compare the method with the commonly used approach of exponentially distributed recurrence times assuming a stationary Poisson process.

Foreshocks, aftershocks, and earthquake probabilities: Accounting for the landers earthquake

Science.gov (United States)

Jones, Lucile M.

1994-01-01

The equation to determine the probability that an earthquake occurring near a major fault will be a foreshock to a mainshock on that fault is modified to include the case of aftershocks to a previous earthquake occurring near the fault. The addition of aftershocks to the background seismicity makes its less probable that an earthquake will be a foreshock, because nonforeshocks have become more common. As the aftershocks decay with time, the probability that an earthquake will be a foreshock increases. However, fault interactions between the first mainshock and the major fault can increase the long-term probability of a characteristic earthquake on that fault, which will, in turn, increase the probability that an event is a foreshock, compensating for the decrease caused by the aftershocks.

Earthquake-induced soft-sediment deformations and seismically amplified erosion rates recorded in varved sediments of Köyceğiz Lake (SW Turkey)

KAUST Repository

Avsar, Ulas; Jonsson, Sigurjon; Avşar, Ö zgü r; Schmidt, Sabine

2016-01-01

sequence of Köyceğiz Lake (SW Turkey) that we compare with estimated peak ground acceleration (PGA) values of several nearby earthquakes. We find that earthquakes exceeding estimated PGA values of ca. 20 cm/s2 can induce soft-sediment deformations (SSD

Earthquake forecasting and warning

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Rikitake, T.

1983-01-01

This review briefly describes two other books on the same subject either written or partially written by Rikitake. In this book, the status of earthquake prediction efforts in Japan, China, the Soviet Union, and the United States are updated. An overview of some of the organizational, legal, and societal aspects of earthquake prediction in these countries is presented, and scientific findings of precursory phenomena are included. A summary of circumstances surrounding the 1975 Haicheng earthquake, the 1978 Tangshan earthquake, and the 1976 Songpan-Pingwu earthquake (all magnitudes = 7.0) in China and the 1978 Izu-Oshima earthquake in Japan is presented. This book fails to comprehensively summarize recent advances in earthquake prediction research.

Gradual unlocking of plate boundary controlled initiation of the 2014 Iquique earthquake.

Science.gov (United States)

Schurr, Bernd; Asch, Günter; Hainzl, Sebastian; Bedford, Jonathan; Hoechner, Andreas; Palo, Mauro; Wang, Rongjiang; Moreno, Marcos; Bartsch, Mitja; Zhang, Yong; Oncken, Onno; Tilmann, Frederik; Dahm, Torsten; Victor, Pia; Barrientos, Sergio; Vilotte, Jean-Pierre

2014-08-21

On 1 April 2014, Northern Chile was struck by a magnitude 8.1 earthquake following a protracted series of foreshocks. The Integrated Plate Boundary Observatory Chile monitored the entire sequence of events, providing unprecedented resolution of the build-up to the main event and its rupture evolution. Here we show that the Iquique earthquake broke a central fraction of the so-called northern Chile seismic gap, the last major segment of the South American plate boundary that had not ruptured in the past century. Since July 2013 three seismic clusters, each lasting a few weeks, hit this part of the plate boundary with earthquakes of increasing peak magnitudes. Starting with the second cluster, geodetic observations show surface displacements that can be associated with slip on the plate interface. These seismic clusters and their slip transients occupied a part of the plate interface that was transitional between a fully locked and a creeping portion. Leading up to this earthquake, the b value of the foreshocks gradually decreased during the years before the earthquake, reversing its trend a few days before the Iquique earthquake. The mainshock finally nucleated at the northern end of the foreshock area, which skirted a locked patch, and ruptured mainly downdip towards higher locking. Peak slip was attained immediately downdip of the foreshock region and at the margin of the locked patch. We conclude that gradual weakening of the central part of the seismic gap accentuated by the foreshock activity in a zone of intermediate seismic coupling was instrumental in causing final failure, distinguishing the Iquique earthquake from most great earthquakes. Finally, only one-third of the gap was broken and the remaining locked segments now pose a significant, increased seismic hazard with the potential to host an earthquake with a magnitude of >8.5.

Imaging different components of a tectonic tremor sequence in southwestern Japan using an automatic statistical detection and location method

Science.gov (United States)

Poiata, Natalia; Vilotte, Jean-Pierre; Bernard, Pascal; Satriano, Claudio; Obara, Kazushige

2018-06-01

In this study, we demonstrate the capability of an automatic network-based detection and location method to extract and analyse different components of tectonic tremor activity by analysing a 9-day energetic tectonic tremor sequence occurring at the downdip extension of the subducting slab in southwestern Japan. The applied method exploits the coherency of multiscale, frequency-selective characteristics of non-stationary signals recorded across the seismic network. Use of different characteristic functions, in the signal processing step of the method, allows to extract and locate the sources of short-duration impulsive signal transients associated with low-frequency earthquakes and of longer-duration energy transients during the tectonic tremor sequence. Frequency-dependent characteristic functions, based on higher-order statistics' properties of the seismic signals, are used for the detection and location of low-frequency earthquakes. This allows extracting a more complete (˜6.5 times more events) and time-resolved catalogue of low-frequency earthquakes than the routine catalogue provided by the Japan Meteorological Agency. As such, this catalogue allows resolving the space-time evolution of the low-frequency earthquakes activity in great detail, unravelling spatial and temporal clustering, modulation in response to tide, and different scales of space-time migration patterns. In the second part of the study, the detection and source location of longer-duration signal energy transients within the tectonic tremor sequence is performed using characteristic functions built from smoothed frequency-dependent energy envelopes. This leads to a catalogue of longer-duration energy sources during the tectonic tremor sequence, characterized by their durations and 3-D spatial likelihood maps of the energy-release source regions. The summary 3-D likelihood map for the 9-day tectonic tremor sequence, built from this catalogue, exhibits an along-strike spatial segmentation of

Imaging different components of a tectonic tremor sequence in southwestern Japan using an automatic statistical detection and location method

Science.gov (United States)

Poiata, Natalia; Vilotte, Jean-Pierre; Bernard, Pascal; Satriano, Claudio; Obara, Kazushige

2018-02-01

In this study, we demonstrate the capability of an automatic network-based detection and location method to extract and analyse different components of tectonic tremor activity by analysing a 9-day energetic tectonic tremor sequence occurring at the down-dip extension of the subducting slab in southwestern Japan. The applied method exploits the coherency of multi-scale, frequency-selective characteristics of non-stationary signals recorded across the seismic network. Use of different characteristic functions, in the signal processing step of the method, allows to extract and locate the sources of short-duration impulsive signal transients associated with low-frequency earthquakes and of longer-duration energy transients during the tectonic tremor sequence. Frequency-dependent characteristic functions, based on higher-order statistics' properties of the seismic signals, are used for the detection and location of low-frequency earthquakes. This allows extracting a more complete (˜6.5 times more events) and time-resolved catalogue of low-frequency earthquakes than the routine catalogue provided by the Japan Meteorological Agency. As such, this catalogue allows resolving the space-time evolution of the low-frequency earthquakes activity in great detail, unravelling spatial and temporal clustering, modulation in response to tide, and different scales of space-time migration patterns. In the second part of the study, the detection and source location of longer-duration signal energy transients within the tectonic tremor sequence is performed using characteristic functions built from smoothed frequency-dependent energy envelopes. This leads to a catalogue of longer-duration energy sources during the tectonic tremor sequence, characterized by their durations and 3-D spatial likelihood maps of the energy-release source regions. The summary 3-D likelihood map for the 9-day tectonic tremor sequence, built from this catalogue, exhibits an along-strike spatial segmentation of

Ionospheric earthquake precursors

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bulachenko, A.L.; Oraevskij, V.N.; Pokhotelov, O.A.; Sorokin, V.N.; Strakhov, V.N.; Chmyrev, V.M.

1996-01-01

Results of experimental study on ionospheric earthquake precursors, program development on processes in the earthquake focus and physical mechanisms of formation of various type precursors are considered. Composition of experimental cosmic system for earthquake precursors monitoring is determined. 36 refs., 5 figs

Evaluation of earthquake vibration on aseismic design of nuclear power plant judging from recent earthquakes

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dan, Kazuo

2006-01-01

The Regulatory Guide for Aseismic Design of Nuclear Reactor Facilities was revised on 19 th September, 2006. Six factors for evaluation of earthquake vibration are considered on the basis of the recent earthquakes. They are 1) evaluation of earthquake vibration by method using fault model, 2) investigation and approval of active fault, 3) direct hit earthquake, 4) assumption of the short active fault as the hypocentral fault, 5) locality of the earthquake and the earthquake vibration and 6) remaining risk. A guiding principle of revision required new evaluation method of earthquake vibration using fault model, and evaluation of probability of earthquake vibration. The remaining risk means the facilities and people get into danger when stronger earthquake than the design occurred, accordingly, the scattering has to be considered at evaluation of earthquake vibration. The earthquake belt of Hyogo-Nanbu earthquake and strong vibration pulse in 1995, relation between length of surface earthquake fault and hypocentral fault, and distribution of seismic intensity of off Kushiro in 1993 are shown. (S.Y.)

Comparison of two large earthquakes: the 2008 Sichuan Earthquake and the 2011 East Japan Earthquake.

Science.gov (United States)

Otani, Yuki; Ando, Takayuki; Atobe, Kaori; Haiden, Akina; Kao, Sheng-Yuan; Saito, Kohei; Shimanuki, Marie; Yoshimoto, Norifumi; Fukunaga, Koichi

2012-01-01

Between August 15th and 19th, 2011, eight 5th-year medical students from the Keio University School of Medicine had the opportunity to visit the Peking University School of Medicine and hold a discussion session titled "What is the most effective way to educate people for survival in an acute disaster situation (before the mental health care stage)?" During the session, we discussed the following six points: basic information regarding the Sichuan Earthquake and the East Japan Earthquake, differences in preparedness for earthquakes, government actions, acceptance of medical rescue teams, earthquake-induced secondary effects, and media restrictions. Although comparison of the two earthquakes was not simple, we concluded that three major points should be emphasized to facilitate the most effective course of disaster planning and action. First, all relevant agencies should formulate emergency plans and should supply information regarding the emergency to the general public and health professionals on a normal basis. Second, each citizen should be educated and trained in how to minimize the risks from earthquake-induced secondary effects. Finally, the central government should establish a single headquarters responsible for command, control, and coordination during a natural disaster emergency and should centralize all powers in this single authority. We hope this discussion may be of some use in future natural disasters in China, Japan, and worldwide.

Rupture complexity of the Mw 8.3 sea of okhotsk earthquake: Rapid triggering of complementary earthquakes?

Science.gov (United States)

Wei, Shengji; Helmberger, Don; Zhan, Zhongwen; Graves, Robert

2013-01-01

We derive a finite slip model for the 2013 Mw 8.3 Sea of Okhotsk Earthquake (Z = 610 km) by inverting calibrated teleseismic P waveforms. The inversion shows that the earthquake ruptured on a 10° dipping rectangular fault zone (140 km × 50 km) and evolved into a sequence of four large sub-events (E1–E4) with an average rupture speed of 4.0 km/s. The rupture process can be divided into two main stages. The first propagated south, rupturing sub-events E1, E2, and E4. The second stage (E3) originated near E2 with a delay of 12 s and ruptured northward, filling the slip gap between E1 and E2. This kinematic process produces an overall slip pattern similar to that observed in shallow swarms, except it occurs over a compressed time span of about 30 s and without many aftershocks, suggesting that sub-event triggering for deep events is significantly more efficient than for shallow events.

The effects of spatially varying earthquake impacts on mood and anxiety symptom treatments among long-term Christchurch residents following the 2010/11 Canterbury earthquakes, New Zealand.

Science.gov (United States)

Hogg, Daniel; Kingham, Simon; Wilson, Thomas M; Ardagh, Michael

2016-09-01

This study investigates the effects of disruptions to different community environments, community resilience and cumulated felt earthquake intensities on yearly mood and anxiety symptom treatments from the New Zealand Ministry of Health's administrative databases between September 2009 and August 2012. The sample includes 172,284 long-term residents from different Christchurch communities. Living in a better physical environment was associated with lower mood and anxiety treatment rates after the beginning of the Canterbury earthquake sequence whereas an inverse effect could be found for social community environment and community resilience. These results may be confounded by pre-existing patterns, as well as intensified treatment-seeking behaviour and intervention programmes in severely affected areas. Nevertheless, the findings indicate that adverse mental health outcomes can be found in communities with worse physical but stronger social environments or community resilience post-disaster. Also, they do not necessarily follow felt intensities since cumulative earthquake intensity did not show a significant effect. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Modeling Seismic Cycles of Great Megathrust Earthquakes Across the Scales With Focus at Postseismic Phase

Science.gov (United States)

Sobolev, Stephan V.; Muldashev, Iskander A.

2017-12-01

Subduction is substantially multiscale process where the stresses are built by long-term tectonic motions, modified by sudden jerky deformations during earthquakes, and then restored by following multiple relaxation processes. Here we develop a cross-scale thermomechanical model aimed to simulate the subduction process from 1 min to million years' time scale. The model employs elasticity, nonlinear transient viscous rheology, and rate-and-state friction. It generates spontaneous earthquake sequences and by using an adaptive time step algorithm, recreates the deformation process as observed naturally during the seismic cycle and multiple seismic cycles. The model predicts that viscosity in the mantle wedge drops by more than three orders of magnitude during the great earthquake with a magnitude above 9. As a result, the surface velocities just an hour or day after the earthquake are controlled by viscoelastic relaxation in the several hundred km of mantle landward of the trench and not by the afterslip localized at the fault as is currently believed. Our model replicates centuries-long seismic cycles exhibited by the greatest earthquakes and is consistent with the postseismic surface displacements recorded after the Great Tohoku Earthquake. We demonstrate that there is no contradiction between extremely low mechanical coupling at the subduction megathrust in South Chile inferred from long-term geodynamic models and appearance of the largest earthquakes, like the Great Chile 1960 Earthquake.

Predicting earthquakes by analyzing accelerating precursory seismic activity

Science.gov (United States)

Varnes, D.J.

1989-01-01

During 11 sequences of earthquakes that in retrospect can be classed as foreshocks, the accelerating rate at which seismic moment is released follows, at least in part, a simple equation. This equation (1) is {Mathematical expression},where {Mathematical expression} is the cumulative sum until time, t, of the square roots of seismic moments of individual foreshocks computed from reported magnitudes;C and n are constants; and tfis a limiting time at which the rate of seismic moment accumulation becomes infinite. The possible time of a major foreshock or main shock, tf,is found by the best fit of equation (1), or its integral, to step-like plots of {Mathematical expression} versus time using successive estimates of tfin linearized regressions until the maximum coefficient of determination, r2,is obtained. Analyzed examples include sequences preceding earthquakes at Cremasta, Greece, 2/5/66; Haicheng, China 2/4/75; Oaxaca, Mexico, 11/29/78; Petatlan, Mexico, 3/14/79; and Central Chile, 3/3/85. In 29 estimates of main-shock time, made as the sequences developed, the errors in 20 were less than one-half and in 9 less than one tenth the time remaining between the time of the last data used and the main shock. Some precursory sequences, or parts of them, yield no solution. Two sequences appear to include in their first parts the aftershocks of a previous event; plots using the integral of equation (1) show that the sequences are easily separable into aftershock and foreshock segments. Synthetic seismic sequences of shocks at equal time intervals were constructed to follow equation (1), using four values of n. In each series the resulting distributions of magnitudes closely follow the linear Gutenberg-Richter relation log N=a-bM, and the product n times b for each series is the same constant. In various forms and for decades, equation (1) has been used successfully to predict failure times of stressed metals and ceramics, landslides in soil and rock slopes, and volcanic

The 2009 Samoa-Tonga great earthquake triggered doublet

Science.gov (United States)

Lay, T.; Ammon, C.J.; Kanamori, H.; Rivera, L.; Koper, K.D.; Hutko, Alexander R.

2010-01-01

Great earthquakes (having seismic magnitudes of at least 8) usually involve abrupt sliding of rock masses at a boundary between tectonic plates. Such interplate ruptures produce dynamic and static stress changes that can activate nearby intraplate aftershocks, as is commonly observed in the trench-slope region seaward of a great subduction zone thrust event1-4. The earthquake sequence addressed here involves a rare instance in which a great trench-slope intraplate earthquake triggered extensive interplate faulting, reversing the typical pattern and broadly expanding the seismic and tsunami hazard. On 29 September 2009, within two minutes of the initiation of a normal faulting event with moment magnitude 8.1 in the outer trench-slope at the northern end of the Tonga subduction zone, two major interplate underthrusting subevents (both with moment magnitude 7.8), with total moment equal to a second great earthquake of moment magnitude 8.0, ruptured the nearby subduction zone megathrust. The collective faulting produced tsunami waves with localized regions of about 12metres run-up that claimed 192 lives in Samoa, American Samoa and Tonga. Overlap of the seismic signals obscured the fact that distinct faults separated by more than 50km had ruptured with different geometries, with the triggered thrust faulting only being revealed by detailed seismic wave analyses. Extensive interplate and intraplate aftershock activity was activated over a large region of the northern Tonga subduction zone. ?? 2010 Macmillan Publishers Limited. All rights reserved.

Twitter earthquake detection: earthquake monitoring in a social world

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Daniel C. Bowden

2011-06-01

Full Text Available The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS is investigating how the social networking site Twitter, a popular service for sending and receiving short, public text messages, can augment USGS earthquake response products and the delivery of hazard information. Rapid detection and qualitative assessment of shaking events are possible because people begin sending public Twitter messages (tweets with in tens of seconds after feeling shaking. Here we present and evaluate an earthquake detection procedure that relies solely on Twitter data. A tweet-frequency time series constructed from tweets containing the word “earthquake” clearly shows large peaks correlated with the origin times of widely felt events. To identify possible earthquakes, we use a short-term-average, long-term-average algorithm. When tuned to a moderate sensitivity, the detector finds 48 globally-distributed earthquakes with only two false triggers in five months of data. The number of detections is small compared to the 5,175 earthquakes in the USGS global earthquake catalog for the same five-month time period, and no accurate location or magnitude can be assigned based on tweet data alone. However, Twitter earthquake detections are not without merit. The detections are generally caused by widely felt events that are of more immediate interest than those with no human impact. The detections are also fast; about 75% occur within two minutes of the origin time. This is considerably faster than seismographic detections in poorly instrumented regions of the world. The tweets triggering the detections also provided very short first-impression narratives from people who experienced the shaking.

Results of the Regional Earthquake Likelihood Models (RELM) test of earthquake forecasts in California.

Science.gov (United States)

Lee, Ya-Ting; Turcotte, Donald L; Holliday, James R; Sachs, Michael K; Rundle, John B; Chen, Chien-Chih; Tiampo, Kristy F

2011-10-04

The Regional Earthquake Likelihood Models (RELM) test of earthquake forecasts in California was the first competitive evaluation of forecasts of future earthquake occurrence. Participants submitted expected probabilities of occurrence of M ≥ 4.95 earthquakes in 0.1° × 0.1° cells for the period 1 January 1, 2006, to December 31, 2010. Probabilities were submitted for 7,682 cells in California and adjacent regions. During this period, 31 M ≥ 4.95 earthquakes occurred in the test region. These earthquakes occurred in 22 test cells. This seismic activity was dominated by earthquakes associated with the M = 7.2, April 4, 2010, El Mayor-Cucapah earthquake in northern Mexico. This earthquake occurred in the test region, and 16 of the other 30 earthquakes in the test region could be associated with it. Nine complete forecasts were submitted by six participants. In this paper, we present the forecasts in a way that allows the reader to evaluate which forecast is the most "successful" in terms of the locations of future earthquakes. We conclude that the RELM test was a success and suggest ways in which the results can be used to improve future forecasts.

Testing the stress shadow hypothesis

Science.gov (United States)

Felzer, Karen R.; Brodsky, Emily E.

2005-05-01

A fundamental question in earthquake physics is whether aftershocks are predominantly triggered by static stress changes (permanent stress changes associated with fault displacement) or dynamic stresses (temporary stress changes associated with earthquake shaking). Both classes of models provide plausible explanations for earthquake triggering of aftershocks, but only the static stress model predicts stress shadows, or regions in which activity is decreased by a nearby earthquake. To test for whether a main shock has produced a stress shadow, we calculate time ratios, defined as the ratio of the time between the main shock and the first earthquake to follow it and the time between the last earthquake to precede the main shock and the first earthquake to follow it. A single value of the time ratio is calculated for each 10 × 10 km bin within 1.5 fault lengths of the main shock epicenter. Large values of the time ratio indicate a long wait for the first earthquake to follow the main shock and thus a potential stress shadow, whereas small values indicate the presence of aftershocks. Simulations indicate that the time ratio test should have sufficient sensitivity to detect stress shadows if they are produced in accordance with the rate and state friction model. We evaluate the 1989 MW 7.0 Loma Prieta, 1992 MW 7.3 Landers, 1994 MW 6.7 Northridge, and 1999 MW 7.1 Hector Mine main shocks. For each main shock, there is a pronounced concentration of small time ratios, indicating the presence of aftershocks, but the number of large time ratios is less than at other times in the catalog. This suggests that stress shadows are not present. By comparing our results to simulations we estimate that we can be at least 98% confident that the Loma Prieta and Landers main shocks did not produce stress shadows and 91% and 84% confident that stress shadows were not generated by the Hector Mine and Northridge main shocks, respectively. We also investigate the long hypothesized existence

Earthquakes, September-October 1986

Science.gov (United States)

Person, W.J.

1987-01-01

There was one great earthquake (8.0 and above) during this reporting period in the South Pacific in the Kermadec Islands. There were no major earthquakes (7.0-7.9) but earthquake-related deaths were reported in Greece and in El Salvador. There were no destrcutive earthquakes in the United States.

EARTHQUAKE-INDUCED DEFORMATION STRUCTURES AND RELATED TO EARTHQUAKE MAGNITUDES

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Savaş TOPAL

2003-02-01

Full Text Available Earthquake-induced deformation structures which are called seismites may helpful to clasify the paleoseismic history of a location and to estimate the magnitudes of the potention earthquakes in the future. In this paper, seismites were investigated according to the types formed in deep and shallow lake sediments. Seismites are observed forms of sand dikes, introduced and fractured gravels and pillow structures in shallow lakes and pseudonodules, mushroom-like silts protruding laminites, mixed layers, disturbed varved lamination and loop bedding in deep lake sediments. Earthquake-induced deformation structures, by benefiting from previous studies, were ordered according to their formations and earthquake magnitudes. In this order, the lowest eartquake's record is loop bedding and the highest one is introduced and fractured gravels in lacustrine deposits.

Protracted fluvial recovery from medieval earthquakes, Pokhara, Nepal

Science.gov (United States)

Stolle, Amelie; Bernhardt, Anne; Schwanghart, Wolfgang; Andermann, Christoff; Schönfeldt, Elisabeth; Seidemann, Jan; Adhikari, Basanta R.; Merchel, Silke; Rugel, Georg; Fort, Monique; Korup, Oliver

2016-04-01

River response to strong earthquake shaking in mountainous terrain often entails the flushing of sediments delivered by widespread co-seismic landsliding. Detailed mass-balance studies following major earthquakes in China, Taiwan, and New Zealand suggest fluvial recovery times ranging from several years to decades. We report a detailed chronology of earthquake-induced valley fills in the Pokhara region of western-central Nepal, and demonstrate that rivers continue to adjust to several large medieval earthquakes to the present day, thus challenging the notion of transient fluvial response to seismic disturbance. The Pokhara valley features one of the largest and most extensively dated sedimentary records of earthquake-triggered sedimentation in the Himalayas, and independently augments paleo-seismological archives obtained mainly from fault trenches and historic documents. New radiocarbon dates from the catastrophically deposited Pokhara Formation document multiple phases of extremely high geomorphic activity between ˜700 and ˜1700 AD, preserved in thick sequences of alternating fluvial conglomerates, massive mud and silt beds, and cohesive debris-flow deposits. These dated fan-marginal slackwater sediments indicate pronounced sediment pulses in the wake of at least three large medieval earthquakes in ˜1100, 1255, and 1344 AD. We combine these dates with digital elevation models, geological maps, differential GPS data, and sediment logs to estimate the extent of these three pulses that are characterized by sedimentation rates of ˜200 mm yr-1 and peak rates as high as 1,000 mm yr-1. Some 5.5 to 9 km3 of material infilled the pre-existing topography, and is now prone to ongoing fluvial dissection along major canyons. Contemporary river incision into the Pokhara Formation is rapid (120-170 mm yr-1), triggering widespread bank erosion, channel changes, and very high sediment yields of the order of 103 to 105 t km-2 yr-1, that by far outweigh bedrock denudation rates

Three-dimensional magnetotelluric imaging of the 1997 Kagoshima earthquake doublet, Southwest Japan

Science.gov (United States)

Asamori, K.; Makuuchi, A.; Umeda, K.

2013-12-01

The 1997 Kagoshima earthquake doublet struck on unrecognized active faults lacking clear surface expression where very few large earthquakes have occurred. Two shallow moderate earthquakes occurred in the northwestern part of Kagoshima province, on March 26 (Mw 6.1) and May 13 (Mw 6.0) in 1997, both followed by intensive aftershock sequences. Aftershock distribution of the 1997 earthquake doublet reflects complicated rupture process attributed to the geological (rheological) conditions and coupling of hydraulic pressure as well as tectonic shear stress. For advanced understanding of dynamic interactions between fluids and faulting, it is imperative to obtain three-dimensional (3-D) images of the electrical resistivity structure around the seismogenic faults. In this study, we conduct magnetotelluric (MT) soundings in and around the source region of the 1997 Kagoshima earthquake sequence and perform a 3-D inversion of wideband MT data above a depth of 30 km. MT stations were deployed around the aftershock area of the 1997 Kagoshima earthquake. All of 42 MT sites were set up in the land area. The data were collected using five component (three magnetic and two telluric components) wide-band MT instruments (Phoenix MTU-5 system) in February, 2013. The data were acquired in the frequency range from 0.000343 to 320 Hz. The recording duration ranged from 2 to 8 days. As the cultural noises severely affect the measurements, the time series analysis focused on the nocturnal data when there were fewer noise. A simultaneous remote reference measurement was carried out at the Sawauchi site (1300 km northeast of the study area). Using the remote reference technique (Gamble et al., 1979), we were able to reduce the unfavorable cultural noises. The observed apparent resistivity and phase data were inverted simultaneously using the 3-D inversion code of Sasaki (2004). In this inversion, the 3-D blocks were set up in the crust and upper mantle. These block size in the horizontal

The 2016 Central Italy Earthquake: an Overview

Science.gov (United States)

Amato, A.

2016-12-01

The M6 central Italy earthquake occurred on the seismic backbone of the Italy, just in the middle of the highest hazard belt. The shock hit suddenly during the night of August 24, when people were asleep; no foreshocks occurred before the main event. The earthquake ruptured from 10 km to the surface, and produced a more than 17,000 aftershocks (Oct. 19) spread on a 40x20 km2 area elongated NW-SE. It is geologically very similar to previous recent events of the Apennines. Both the 2009 L'Aquila earthquake to the south and the 1997 Colfiorito to the north, were characterized by the activation of adjacent fault segments. Despite its magnitude and the well known seismic hazard of the region, the earthquake produced extensive damage and 297 fatalities. The town of Amatrice, that paid the highest toll, was classified in zone 1 (the highest) since 1915, but the buildings in this and other villages revealed highly vulnerable. In contrast, in the town of Norcia, that also experienced strong ground shaking, no collapses occurred, most likely due to the retrofitting carried out after an earthquake in 1979. Soon after the quake, the INGV Crisis Unit convened at night in the Rome headquarters, in order to coordinate the activities. The first field teams reached the epicentral area at 7 am with the portable seismic stations installed to monitor the aftershocks; other teams followed to map surface faults, damage, to measure GPS sites, to install instruments for site response studies, and so on. The INGV Crisis Unit includes the Press office and the INGVterremoti team, in order to manage and coordinate the communication towards the Civil Protection Dept. (DPC), the media and the web. Several tens of reports and updates have been delivered in the first month of the sequence to DPC. Also due to the controversial situation arisen from the L'Aquila earthquake and trials, particular attention was given to the communication: continuous and timely information has been released to

The 2012 Pianura Padana Emiliana seimic sequence: locations, moment tensors and magnitudes

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Laura Scognamiglio

2012-10-01

Full Text Available On May 20, 2012 (02:03:53 UTC, an Mw 5.86 (Ml 5.9 earthquake struck the Pianura Padana Emiliana region (northern Italy, causing five deaths and damage to several villages and to the towns of Ferrara and Modena. The mainshock was preceded, three hours earlier, by a Mw 3.98 (Ml 4.1 foreshock, which almost co-located with the main event. After the main event, the seismic sequence included six earthquakes with magnitudes >5.0. The biggest aftershock was located about 12 km west of the first mainshock, and was a Mw 5.66 (Ml 5.8 earthquake that occurred on May 29, 2012 (07:00:03 UTC; this can be considered as a second mainshock. After this event, the official death toll of the seismic sequence was 17 people. Moreover, there had been severe damage to the economy of the region and there were 13,000 homeless. [...]    

Megathrust earthquakes in Central Chile: What is next after the Maule 2010 earthquake?

Science.gov (United States)

Madariaga, R.

2013-05-01

The 27 February 2010 Maule earthquake occurred in a well identified gap in the Chilean subduction zone. The event has now been studied in detail using both far-field, near field seismic and geodetic data, we will review this information gathered so far. The event broke a region that was much longer along strike than the gap left over from the 1835 Concepcion earthquake, sometimes called the Darwin earthquake because he was in the area when the earthquake occurred and made many observations. Recent studies of contemporary documents by Udias et al indicate that the area broken by the Maule earthquake in 2010 had previously broken by a similar earthquake in 1751, but several events in the magnitude 8 range occurred in the area principally in 1835 already mentioned and, more recently on 1 December 1928 to the North and on 21 May 1960 (1 1/2 days before the big Chilean earthquake of 1960). Currently the area of the 2010 earthquake and the region immediately to the North is undergoing a very large increase in seismicity with numerous clusters of seismicity that move along the plate interface. Examination of the seismicity of Chile of the 18th and 19th century show that the region immediately to the North of the 2010 earthquake broke in a very large megathrust event in July 1730. this is the largest known earthquake in central Chile. The region where this event occurred has broken in many occasions with M 8 range earthquakes in 1822, 1880, 1906, 1971 and 1985. Is it preparing for a new very large megathrust event? The 1906 earthquake of Mw 8.3 filled the central part of the gap but it has broken again on several occasions in 1971, 1973 and 1985. The main question is whether the 1906 earthquake relieved enough stresses from the 1730 rupture zone. Geodetic data shows that most of the region that broke in 1730 is currently almost fully locked from the northern end of the Maule earthquake at 34.5°S to 30°S, near the southern end of the of the Mw 8.5 Atacama earthquake of 11

Rapid Estimates of Rupture Extent for Large Earthquakes Using Aftershocks

Science.gov (United States)

Polet, J.; Thio, H. K.; Kremer, M.

2009-12-01

The spatial distribution of aftershocks is closely linked to the rupture extent of the mainshock that preceded them and a rapid analysis of aftershock patterns therefore has potential for use in near real-time estimates of earthquake impact. The correlation between aftershocks and slip distribution has frequently been used to estimate the fault dimensions of large historic earthquakes for which no, or insufficient, waveform data is available. With the advent of earthquake inversions that use seismic waveforms and geodetic data to constrain the slip distribution, the study of aftershocks has recently been largely focused on enhancing our understanding of the underlying mechanisms in a broader earthquake mechanics/dynamics framework. However, in a near real-time earthquake monitoring environment, in which aftershocks of large earthquakes are routinely detected and located, these data may also be effective in determining a fast estimate of the mainshock rupture area, which would aid in the rapid assessment of the impact of the earthquake. We have analyzed a considerable number of large recent earthquakes and their aftershock sequences and have developed an effective algorithm that determines the rupture extent of a mainshock from its aftershock distribution, in a fully automatic manner. The algorithm automatically removes outliers by spatial binning, and subsequently determines the best fitting “strike” of the rupture and its length by projecting the aftershock epicenters onto a set of lines that cross the mainshock epicenter with incremental azimuths. For strike-slip or large dip-slip events, for which the surface projection of the rupture is recti-linear, the calculated strike correlates well with the strike of the fault and the corresponding length, determined from the distribution of aftershocks projected onto the line, agrees well with the rupture length. In the case of a smaller dip-slip rupture with an aspect ratio closer to 1, the procedure gives a measure

The GIS and analysis of earthquake damage distribution of the 1303 Hongtong M=8 earthquake

Science.gov (United States)

Gao, Meng-Tan; Jin, Xue-Shen; An, Wei-Ping; Lü, Xiao-Jian

2004-07-01

The geography information system of the 1303 Hongton M=8 earthquake has been established. Using the spatial analysis function of GIS, the spatial distribution characteristics of damage and isoseismal of the earthquake are studies. By comparing with the standard earthquake intensity attenuation relationship, the abnormal damage distribution of the earthquake is found, so the relationship of the abnormal distribution with tectonics, site condition and basin are analyzed. In this paper, the influence on the ground motion generated by earthquake source and the underground structures near source also are studied. The influence on seismic zonation, anti-earthquake design, earthquake prediction and earthquake emergency responding produced by the abnormal density distribution are discussed.

Earthquakes, November-December 1977

Science.gov (United States)

Person, W.J.

1978-01-01

Two major earthquakes occurred in the last 2 months of the year. A magnitude 7.0 earthquake struck San Juan Province, Argentina, on November 23, causing fatalities and damage. The second major earthquake was a magnitude 7.0 in the Bonin Islands region, an unpopulated area. On December 19, Iran experienced a destructive earthquake, which killed over 500.

Protecting your family from earthquakes: The seven steps to earthquake safety

Science.gov (United States)

Developed by American Red Cross, Asian Pacific Fund

2007-01-01

This book is provided here because of the importance of preparing for earthquakes before they happen. Experts say it is very likely there will be a damaging San Francisco Bay Area earthquake in the next 30 years and that it will strike without warning. It may be hard to find the supplies and services we need after this earthquake. For example, hospitals may have more patients than they can treat, and grocery stores may be closed for weeks. You will need to provide for your family until help arrives. To keep our loved ones and our community safe, we must prepare now. Some of us come from places where earthquakes are also common. However, the dangers of earthquakes in our homelands may be very different than in the Bay Area. For example, many people in Asian countries die in major earthquakes when buildings collapse or from big sea waves called tsunami. In the Bay Area, the main danger is from objects inside buildings falling on people. Take action now to make sure your family will be safe in an earthquake. The first step is to read this book carefully and follow its advice. By making your home safer, you help make our community safer. Preparing for earthquakes is important, and together we can make sure our families and community are ready. English version p. 3-13 Chinese version p. 14-24 Vietnamese version p. 25-36 Korean version p. 37-48

Evidence for strong Holocene earthquake(s) in the Wabash Valley seismic zone

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Obermeier, S.

1991-01-01

Many small and slightly damaging earthquakes have taken place in the region of the lower Wabash River Valley of Indiana and Illinois during the 200 years of historic record. Seismologists have long suspected the Wabash Valley seismic zone to be capable of producing earthquakes much stronger than the largest of record (m b 5.8). The seismic zone contains the poorly defined Wabash Valley fault zone and also appears to contain other vaguely defined faults at depths from which the strongest earthquakes presently originate. Faults near the surface are generally covered with thick alluvium in lowlands and a veneer of loess in uplands, which make direct observations of faults difficult. Partly because of this difficulty, a search for paleoliquefaction features was begun in 1990. Conclusions of the study are as follows: (1) an earthquake much stronger than any historic earthquake struck the lower Wabash Valley between 1,500 and 7,500 years ago; (2) the epicentral region of the prehistoric strong earthquake was the Wabash Valley seismic zone; (3) apparent sites have been located where 1811-12 earthquake accelerations can be bracketed

Emergency feature. Great east Japan earthquake disaster Fukushima Daiichi accident

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kawata, Tomio; Tsujikura, Yonezo; Kitamura, Toshiro

2011-01-01

The Tohoku Pacific Ocean earthquake occurred in March 11, 2011. The disastrous tsunami attacked Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plants after automatically shutdown by the earthquake and all motor operated pumps became inoperable due to station black out. Despite the strenuous efforts of operators, if caused serious accident such as loss of cooling function, hydrogen explosion and release of large amount of radioactive materials into the environment, leading to nuclear power emergency that ordered resident to evacuate or remain indoors. This emergency feature consisted of four articles. The first was the interview with the president of JAIF (Japan Atomic Industrial Forum) on how to identify the cause of the accident completely, intensify safety assurance measures and promote discussions on a role of nuclear power in the nation's entire energy policy toward the reconstruction. Others were reactor states and events sequence after the accident with trend data of radiation in the reactor site, statement of president of AESJ (Atomic Energy Society of Japan) on nuclear crisis following Tohoku Pacific Ocean earthquake our response and my experience in evacuation life. (T. Tanaka)

Spectra of the earthquake sequence February-March, 1981, in south-central Sweden

OpenAIRE

O. Kulhánek; T. van Eck; N. John; K. Meyer; Rutger Wahlström

1983-01-01

On February 13, 1981, a relatively strong earthquake occurred in the Lake Vanern region in south-central Sweden. The shock had a magnitude of M"SUB L" = 3.3 and was followed within three weeks by three aftershocks, with magnitudes 0.5 = or < M"SUB L" = or < 1.0. The focal mechanism solution of the main shock indicates reverse faulting with a strike in the N-S or NE-SW direction and a nearly horizontal compressional stress. The aftershocks were too small to yield data for a full mechanism solu...

Operational Earthquake Forecasting: Proposed Guidelines for Implementation (Invited)

Science.gov (United States)

Jordan, T. H.

2010-12-01

The goal of operational earthquake forecasting (OEF) is to provide the public with authoritative information about how seismic hazards are changing with time. During periods of high seismic activity, short-term earthquake forecasts based on empirical statistical models can attain nominal probability gains in excess of 100 relative to the long-term forecasts used in probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA). Prospective experiments are underway by the Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP) to evaluate the reliability and skill of these seismicity-based forecasts in a variety of tectonic environments. How such information should be used for civil protection is by no means clear, because even with hundredfold increases, the probabilities of large earthquakes typically remain small, rarely exceeding a few percent over forecasting intervals of days or weeks. Civil protection agencies have been understandably cautious in implementing formal procedures for OEF in this sort of “low-probability environment.” Nevertheless, the need to move more quickly towards OEF has been underscored by recent experiences, such as the 2009 L’Aquila earthquake sequence and other seismic crises in which an anxious public has been confused by informal, inconsistent earthquake forecasts. Whether scientists like it or not, rising public expectations for real-time information, accelerated by the use of social media, will require civil protection agencies to develop sources of authoritative information about the short-term earthquake probabilities. In this presentation, I will discuss guidelines for the implementation of OEF informed by my experience on the California Earthquake Prediction Evaluation Council, convened by CalEMA, and the International Commission on Earthquake Forecasting, convened by the Italian government following the L’Aquila disaster. (a) Public sources of information on short-term probabilities should be authoritative, scientific, open, and

Geomorphic changes induced by the April-May 2015 earthquake sequence in the Pharak-Khumbu area (Nepal): preliminary assessments.

Science.gov (United States)

Fort, Monique

2016-04-01

Landsliding is a common process shaping mountain slopes. There are various potential landslide triggers (rainfall, bank erosion, earthquakes) and their effectiveness depends on their distribution, frequency and magnitude. In a Himalayan context, the effects of monsoon rainfall can be assessed every year whereas the unpredictability and low frequency of large earthquakes make their role in triggering slope instability more obscure. A 7.8 magnitude earthquake struck central Nepal (Gorkha District) on 25 April 2015 and was followed by many aftershocks exceeding magnitude 5, including another strong 7.3 magnitude earthquake on May 12, 2015 (Dolakha District). This seismic crisis provides an exceptional opportunity to assess the disruptions that earthquakes may cause in "regular" geomorphic systems controlled by rainfall. Here we present field observations carried out in the Pharak-Khumbu area (East Nepal, Dudh Kosi catchment) before and after the April-May 2015 earthquakes. The Pharak, a "middle mountains" (2000-4500 m) area, is affected by monsoon rains (3000 m/yr at 2500 m) and characterised by steep hillslopes, shaped by different geomorphic processes according to slope height and aspect, rock type and strength, inherited landforms, stream connectivity and current land use changes. This study focuses on the south of Lukla (Phakding District), and more specifically on the Khari Khola catchment and its surroundings. The area lies at the transition between the Higher Himalayan crystallines and the Lesser Himalayan meta-sediments. On the basis of our diachronic observations (March and November 2015), we surveyed and mapped new earthquake-induced slope instabilities such as rock falls, rockslides, landslides and debris flows and a combination of several of them. Interviews with local people also helped to assess the exact timing of some events. While the first M 7.8 earthquake produced significant impacts in the northern Khumbu area, the M 7.3 aftershock seems to have

Internal tectonic structure of the Central American Wadati-Benioff zone based on analysis of aftershock sequences

Science.gov (United States)

Špičák, Aleš; Hanuš, Václav; Vaněk, Jiří; Běhounková, Marie

2007-09-01

Relocated Engdahl et al. (1998) global seismological data for 10 aftershock sequences were used to analyze the internal tectonic structure of the Central American subduction zone; the main shocks of several of these were the most destructive and often referenced earthquakes in the region (e.g., the 1970 Chiapas, 1983 Osa, 1992 Nicaragua, 1999 Quepos, 2001 El Salvador earthquakes). The spatial analysis of aftershock foci distribution was performed in a rotated Cartesian coordinate system (x, y, z) related to the Wadati-Benioff zone, and not in a standard coordinate system ($\\varphi$, λ, h are latitude, longitude, focal depth, respectively). Available fault plane solutions were also transformed into the plane approximating the Wadati-Benioff zone. The spatial distribution of earthquakes in each aftershock sequence was modeled as either a plane fit using a least squares approximation or a volume fit with a minimum thickness rectangular box. The analysis points to a quasi-planar distribution of earthquake foci in all aftershock sequences, manifesting the appurtenance of aftershocks to fracture zones. Geometrical parameters of fracture zones (strike, dip, and dimensions) hosting individual sequences were calculated and compared with the seafloor morphology of the Cocos Plate. The smooth character of the seafloor correlates with the aftershock fracture zones oriented parallel to the trench and commonly subparallel to the subducting slab, whereas subduction of the Cocos Ridge and seamounts around the Quepos Plateau coincides with steeply dipping fracture zones. Transformed focal mechanisms are almost exclusively (>90%) of normal character.

The 1985 central chile earthquake: a repeat of previous great earthquakes in the region?

Science.gov (United States)

Comte, D; Eisenberg, A; Lorca, E; Pardo, M; Ponce, L; Saragoni, R; Singh, S K; Suárez, G

1986-07-25

A great earthquake (surface-wave magnitude, 7.8) occurred along the coast of central Chile on 3 March 1985, causing heavy damage to coastal towns. Intense foreshock activity near the epicenter of the main shock occurred for 11 days before the earthquake. The aftershocks of the 1985 earthquake define a rupture area of 170 by 110 square kilometers. The earthquake was forecast on the basis of the nearly constant repeat time (83 +/- 9 years) of great earthquakes in this region. An analysis of previous earthquakes suggests that the rupture lengths of great shocks in the region vary by a factor of about 3. The nearly constant repeat time and variable rupture lengths cannot be reconciled with time- or slip-predictable models of earthquake recurrence. The great earthquakes in the region seem to involve a variable rupture mode and yet, for unknown reasons, remain periodic. Historical data suggest that the region south of the 1985 rupture zone should now be considered a gap of high seismic potential that may rupture in a great earthquake in the next few tens of years.

Foreshock and aftershocks in simple earthquake models.

Science.gov (United States)

Kazemian, J; Tiampo, K F; Klein, W; Dominguez, R

2015-02-27

Many models of earthquake faults have been introduced that connect Gutenberg-Richter (GR) scaling to triggering processes. However, natural earthquake fault systems are composed of a variety of different geometries and materials and the associated heterogeneity in physical properties can cause a variety of spatial and temporal behaviors. This raises the question of how the triggering process and the structure interact to produce the observed phenomena. Here we present a simple earthquake fault model based on the Olami-Feder-Christensen and Rundle-Jackson-Brown cellular automata models with long-range interactions that incorporates a fixed percentage of stronger sites, or asperity cells, into the lattice. These asperity cells are significantly stronger than the surrounding lattice sites but eventually rupture when the applied stress reaches their higher threshold stress. The introduction of these spatial heterogeneities results in temporal clustering in the model that mimics that seen in natural fault systems along with GR scaling. In addition, we observe sequences of activity that start with a gradually accelerating number of larger events (foreshocks) prior to a main shock that is followed by a tail of decreasing activity (aftershocks). This work provides further evidence that the spatial and temporal patterns observed in natural seismicity are strongly influenced by the underlying physical properties and are not solely the result of a simple cascade mechanism.

The Swiss-Army-Knife Approach to the Nearly Automatic Analysis for Microearthquake Sequences.

Science.gov (United States)

Kraft, T.; Simon, V.; Tormann, T.; Diehl, T.; Herrmann, M.

2017-12-01

Many Swiss earthquake sequence have been studied using relative location techniques, which often allowed to constrain the active fault planes and shed light on the tectonic processes that drove the seismicity. Yet, in the majority of cases the number of located earthquakes was too small to infer the details of the space-time evolution of the sequences, or their statistical properties. Therefore, it has mostly been impossible to resolve clear patterns in the seismicity of individual sequences, which are needed to improve our understanding of the mechanisms behind them. Here we present a nearly automatic workflow that combines well-established seismological analysis techniques and allows to significantly improve the completeness of detected and located earthquakes of a sequence. We start from the manually timed routine catalog of the Swiss Seismological Service (SED), which contains the larger events of a sequence. From these well-analyzed earthquakes we dynamically assemble a template set and perform a matched filter analysis on the station with: the best SNR for the sequence; and a recording history of at least 10-15 years, our typical analysis period. This usually allows us to detect events several orders of magnitude below the SED catalog detection threshold. The waveform similarity of the events is then further exploited to derive accurate and consistent magnitudes. The enhanced catalog is then analyzed statistically to derive high-resolution time-lines of the a- and b-value and consequently the occurrence probability of larger events. Many of the detected events are strong enough to be located using double-differences. No further manual interaction is needed; we simply time-shift the arrival-time pattern of the detecting template to the associated detection. Waveform similarity assures a good approximation of the expected arrival-times, which we use to calculate event-pair arrival-time differences by cross correlation. After a SNR and cycle-skipping quality

The relationship between earthquake exposure and posttraumatic stress disorder in 2013 Lushan earthquake

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Yan; Lu, Yi

2018-01-01

The objective of this study is to explore the relationship between earthquake exposure and the incidence of PTSD. A stratification random sample survey was conducted to collect data in the Longmenshan thrust fault after Lushan earthquake three years. We used the Children's Revised Impact of Event Scale (CRIES-13) and the Earthquake Experience Scale. Subjects in this study included 3944 school student survivors in local eleven schools. The prevalence of probable PTSD is relatively higher, when the people was trapped in the earthquake, was injured in the earthquake or have relatives who died in the earthquake. It concluded that researchers need to pay more attention to the children and adolescents. The government should pay more attention to these people and provide more economic support.

Crowdsourced earthquake early warning

Science.gov (United States)

Minson, Sarah E.; Brooks, Benjamin A.; Glennie, Craig L.; Murray, Jessica R.; Langbein, John O.; Owen, Susan E.; Heaton, Thomas H.; Iannucci, Robert A.; Hauser, Darren L.

2015-01-01

Earthquake early warning (EEW) can reduce harm to people and infrastructure from earthquakes and tsunamis, but it has not been implemented in most high earthquake-risk regions because of prohibitive cost. Common consumer devices such as smartphones contain low-cost versions of the sensors used in EEW. Although less accurate than scientific-grade instruments, these sensors are globally ubiquitous. Through controlled tests of consumer devices, simulation of an Mw (moment magnitude) 7 earthquake on California’s Hayward fault, and real data from the Mw 9 Tohoku-oki earthquake, we demonstrate that EEW could be achieved via crowdsourcing.

Coastal subsidence in Oregon, USA during the giant Cascadia earthquake of AD 1700

Science.gov (United States)

Hawkes, A.D.; Horton, B.P.; Nelson, A.R.; Vane, C.H.; Sawai, Y.

2011-01-01

Quantitative estimates of land-level change during the giant AD 1700 Cascadia earthquake along the Oregon coast are inferred from relative sea-level changes reconstructed from fossil foraminiferal assemblages preserved within the stratigraphic record. A transfer function, based upon a regional training set of modern sediment samples from Oregon estuaries, is calibrated to fossil assemblages in sequences of samples across buried peat-mud and peat-sand contacts marking the AD 1700 earthquake. Reconstructions of sample elevations with sample-specific errors estimate the amount of coastal subsidence during the earthquake at six sites along 400 km of coast. The elevation estimates are supported by lithological, carbon isotope, and faunal tidal zonation data. Coseismic subsidence at Nehalem River, Nestucca River, Salmon River, Alsea Bay, Siuslaw River and South Slough varies between 0.18 m and 0.85 m with errors between 0.18 m and 0.32 m. These subsidence estimates are more precise, consistent, and generally lower than previous semi-quantitative estimates. Following earlier comparisons of semi-quantitative subsidence estimates with elastic dislocation models of megathrust rupture during great earthquakes, our lower estimates for central and northern Oregon are consistent with modeled rates of strain accumulation and amounts of slip on the subduction megathrust, and thus, with a magnitude of 9 for the AD 1700 earthquake.

Tidal triggering of earthquakes in the Ning'er area of Yunnan Province, China

Science.gov (United States)

Xie, Chaodi; Lei, Xinglin; Zhao, Xiaoyan; Ma, Qingbo; Yang, Simeng; Wang, Yingnan

2017-05-01

To investigate the potential effect of tidal modulation on the seismicity in the Ning'er area, a seismically and geothermally active zone in Yunnan Province, China, we studied the correlation between Earth tides and the occurrence of M ≥ 6.0 earthquakes dating back to 1970, as well as their aftershock sequences, using theoretically calculated tidal stresses and a statistical test. The results show a significant correlation between Earth tides and the occurrence of earthquakes. Six of seven main events occurred when the Earth tide increased the Coulomb failure stress on the source fault. Four main events occurred in a narrow range of phase angle corresponding to the maximum loading rate of tidal stress. Furthermore, the histories of the aftershock sequence as a function of the tidal phases demonstrate clear tidal modulation with a high significance. Thus, we conclude that Earth tides have a clear role in triggering (or modulating) the rupture of the fault systems in the Ning'er area.

Encyclopedia of earthquake engineering

CERN Document Server

Kougioumtzoglou, Ioannis; Patelli, Edoardo; Au, Siu-Kui

2015-01-01

The Encyclopedia of Earthquake Engineering is designed to be the authoritative and comprehensive reference covering all major aspects of the science of earthquake engineering, specifically focusing on the interaction between earthquakes and infrastructure. The encyclopedia comprises approximately 265 contributions. Since earthquake engineering deals with the interaction between earthquake disturbances and the built infrastructure, the emphasis is on basic design processes important to both non-specialists and engineers so that readers become suitably well-informed without needing to deal with the details of specialist understanding. The content of this encyclopedia provides technically inclined and informed readers about the ways in which earthquakes can affect our infrastructure and how engineers would go about designing against, mitigating and remediating these effects. The coverage ranges from buildings, foundations, underground construction, lifelines and bridges, roads, embankments and slopes. The encycl...

Earthquake hazard evaluation for Switzerland

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ruettener, E.

1995-01-01

Earthquake hazard analysis is of considerable importance for Switzerland, a country with moderate seismic activity but high economic values at risk. The evaluation of earthquake hazard, i.e. the determination of return periods versus ground motion parameters, requires a description of earthquake occurrences in space and time. In this study the seismic hazard for major cities in Switzerland is determined. The seismic hazard analysis is based on historic earthquake records as well as instrumental data. The historic earthquake data show considerable uncertainties concerning epicenter location and epicentral intensity. A specific concept is required, therefore, which permits the description of the uncertainties of each individual earthquake. This is achieved by probability distributions for earthquake size and location. Historical considerations, which indicate changes in public earthquake awareness at various times (mainly due to large historical earthquakes), as well as statistical tests have been used to identify time periods of complete earthquake reporting as a function of intensity. As a result, the catalog is judged to be complete since 1878 for all earthquakes with epicentral intensities greater than IV, since 1750 for intensities greater than VI, since 1600 for intensities greater than VIII, and since 1300 for intensities greater than IX. Instrumental data provide accurate information about the depth distribution of earthquakes in Switzerland. In the Alps, focal depths are restricted to the uppermost 15 km of the crust, whereas below the northern Alpine foreland earthquakes are distributed throughout the entire crust (30 km). This depth distribution is considered in the final hazard analysis by probability distributions. (author) figs., tabs., refs

Earthquake Clusters and Spatio-temporal Migration of earthquakes in Northeastern Tibetan Plateau: a Finite Element Modeling

Science.gov (United States)

Sun, Y.; Luo, G.

2017-12-01

Seismicity in a region is usually characterized by earthquake clusters and earthquake migration along its major fault zones. However, we do not fully understand why and how earthquake clusters and spatio-temporal migration of earthquakes occur. The northeastern Tibetan Plateau is a good example for us to investigate these problems. In this study, we construct and use a three-dimensional viscoelastoplastic finite-element model to simulate earthquake cycles and spatio-temporal migration of earthquakes along major fault zones in northeastern Tibetan Plateau. We calculate stress evolution and fault interactions, and explore effects of topographic loading and viscosity of middle-lower crust and upper mantle on model results. Model results show that earthquakes and fault interactions increase Coulomb stress on the neighboring faults or segments, accelerating the future earthquakes in this region. Thus, earthquakes occur sequentially in a short time, leading to regional earthquake clusters. Through long-term evolution, stresses on some seismogenic faults, which are far apart, may almost simultaneously reach the critical state of fault failure, probably also leading to regional earthquake clusters and earthquake migration. Based on our model synthetic seismic catalog and paleoseismic data, we analyze probability of earthquake migration between major faults in northeastern Tibetan Plateau. We find that following the 1920 M 8.5 Haiyuan earthquake and the 1927 M 8.0 Gulang earthquake, the next big event (M≥7) in northeastern Tibetan Plateau would be most likely to occur on the Haiyuan fault.

Towards a Logical Distinction Between Swarms and Aftershock Sequences

Science.gov (United States)

Gardine, M.; Burris, L.; McNutt, S.

2007-12-01

The distinction between swarms and aftershock sequences has, up to this point, been fairly arbitrary and non- uniform. Typically 0.5 to 1 order of magnitude difference between the mainshock and largest aftershock has been a traditional choice, but there are many exceptions. Seismologists have generally assumed that the mainshock carries most of the energy, but this is only true if it is sufficiently large compared to the size and numbers of aftershocks. Here we present a systematic division based on energy of the aftershock sequence compared to the energy of the largest event of the sequence. It is possible to calculate the amount of aftershock energy assumed to be in the sequence using the b-value of the frequency-magnitude relation with a fixed choice of magnitude separation (M-mainshock minus M-largest aftershock). Assuming that the energy of an aftershock sequence is less than the energy of the mainshock, the b-value at which the aftershock energy exceeds that of the mainshock energy determines the boundary between aftershock sequences and swarms. The amount of energy for various choices of b-value is also calculated using different values of magnitude separation. When the minimum b-value at which the sequence energy exceeds that of the largest event/mainshock is plotted against the magnitude separation, a linear trend emerges. Values plotting above this line represent swarms and values plotting below it represent aftershock sequences. This scheme has the advantage that it represents a physical quantity - energy - rather than only statistical features of earthquake distributions. As such it may be useful to help distinguish swarms from mainshock/aftershock sequences and to better determine the underlying causes of earthquake swarms.

2014 Mainshock-Aftershock Activity Versus Earthquake Swarms in West Bohemia, Czech Republic

Science.gov (United States)

Jakoubková, Hana; Horálek, Josef; Fischer, Tomáš

2018-01-01

A singular sequence of three episodes of ML3.5, 4.4 and 3.6 mainshock-aftershock occurred in the West Bohemia/Vogtland earthquake-swarm region during 2014. We analysed this activity using the WEBNET data and compared it with the swarms of 1997, 2000, 2008 and 2011 from the perspective of cumulative seismic moment, statistical characteristics, space-time distribution of events, and prevailing focal mechanisms. For this purpose, we improved the scaling relation between seismic moment M0 and local magnitude ML by WEBNET. The total seismic moment released during 2014 episodes (M_{0tot}≈ 1.58× 10^{15} Nm) corresponded to a single ML4.6+ event and was comparable to M_{0tot} of the swarms of 2000, 2008 and 2011. We inferred that the ML4.8 earthquake is the maximum expected event in Nový Kostel (NK), the main focal zone. Despite the different character of the 2014 sequence and the earthquake swarms, the magnitude-frequency distributions (MFDs) show the b-values ≈ 1 and probability density functions (PDFs) of the interevent times indicate the similar event rate of the individual swarms and 2014 activity. Only the a-value (event-productivity) in the MFD of the 2014 sequence is significantly lower than those of the swarms. A notable finding is a significant acceleration of the seismic moment release in each subsequent activity starting from the 2000 swarm to the 2014 sequence, which may indicate an alteration from the swarm-like to the mainshocks-aftershock character of the seismicity. The three mainshocks are located on a newly activated fault segment/asperity (D in out notation) of the NK zone situated in the transition area among fault segments A, B, C, which hosted the 2000, 2008 and 2011 swarms. The segment D appears to be predisposed to an oblique-thrust faulting while strike-slip faulting is typical of segments A, B and C. In conclusion, we propose a basic segment scheme of the NK zone which should be improved gradually.

Perception of earthquake risk in Taiwan: effects of gender and past earthquake experience.

Science.gov (United States)

Kung, Yi-Wen; Chen, Sue-Huei

2012-09-01

This study explored how individuals in Taiwan perceive the risk of earthquake and the relationship of past earthquake experience and gender to risk perception. Participants (n= 1,405), including earthquake survivors and those in the general population without prior direct earthquake exposure, were selected and interviewed through a computer-assisted telephone interviewing procedure using a random sampling and stratification method covering all 24 regions of Taiwan. A factor analysis of the interview data yielded a two-factor structure of risk perception in regard to earthquake. The first factor, "personal impact," encompassed perception of threat and fear related to earthquakes. The second factor, "controllability," encompassed a sense of efficacy of self-protection in regard to earthquakes. The findings indicated prior earthquake survivors and females reported higher scores on the personal impact factor than males and those with no prior direct earthquake experience, although there were no group differences on the controllability factor. The findings support that risk perception has multiple components, and suggest that past experience (survivor status) and gender (female) affect the perception of risk. Exploration of potential contributions of other demographic factors such as age, education, and marital status to personal impact, especially for females and survivors, is discussed. Future research on and intervention program with regard to risk perception are suggested accordingly. © 2012 Society for Risk Analysis.

Leveraging geodetic data to reduce losses from earthquakes

Science.gov (United States)

Murray, Jessica R.; Roeloffs, Evelyn A.; Brooks, Benjamin A.; Langbein, John O.; Leith, William S.; Minson, Sarah E.; Svarc, Jerry L.; Thatcher, Wayne R.

2018-04-23

event response products and by expanded use of geodetic imaging data to assess fault rupture and source parameters.Uncertainties in the NSHM, and in regional earthquake models, are reduced by fully incorporating geodetic data into earthquake probability calculations.Geodetic networks and data are integrated into the operations and earthquake information products of the Advanced National Seismic System (ANSS).Earthquake early warnings are improved by more rapidly assessing ground displacement and the dynamic faulting process for the largest earthquakes using real-time geodetic data.Methodology for probabilistic earthquake forecasting is refined by including geodetic data when calculating evolving moment release during aftershock sequences and by better understanding the implications of transient deformation for earthquake likelihood.A geodesy program that encompasses a balanced mix of activities to sustain missioncritical capabilities, grows new competencies through the continuum of fundamental to applied research, and ensures sufficient resources for these endeavors provides a foundation by which the EHP can be a leader in the application of geodesy to earthquake science. With this in mind the following objectives provide a framework to guide EHP efforts:Fully utilize geodetic information to improve key products, such as the NSHM and EEW, and to address new ventures like the USGS Subduction Zone Science Plan.Expand the variety, accuracy, and timeliness of post-earthquake information products, such as PAGER (Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response), through incorporation of geodetic observations.Determine if geodetic measurements of transient deformation can significantly improve estimates of earthquake probability.Maintain an observational strategy aligned with the target outcomes of this document that includes continuous monitoring, recording of ephemeral observations, focused data collection for use in research, and application-driven data processing and

New insights into fault activation and stress transfer between en echelon thrusts: The 2012 Emilia, Northern Italy, earthquake sequence

Science.gov (United States)

Cheloni, D.; Giuliani, R.; D'Agostino, N.; Mattone, M.; Bonano, M.; Fornaro, G.; Lanari, R.; Reale, D.; Atzori, S.

2016-06-01

Here we present the results of the inversion of a new geodetic data set covering the 2012 Emilia seismic sequence and the following 1 year of postseismic deformation. Modeling of the geodetic data together with the use of a catalog of 3-D relocated aftershocks allows us to constrain the rupture geometries and the coseismic and postseismic slip distributions for the two main events (Mw 6.1 and 6.0) of the sequence and to explore how these thrust events have interacted with each other. Dislocation modeling reveals that the first event ruptured a slip patch located in the center of the Middle Ferrara thrust with up to 1 m of reverse slip. The modeling of the second event, located about 15 km to the southwest, indicates a main patch with up to 60 cm of slip initiated in the deeper and flatter portion of the Mirandola thrust and progressively propagated postseismically toward the top section of the rupture plane, where most of the aftershocks and afterslip occurred. Our results also indicate that between the two main events, a third thrust segment was activated releasing a pulse of aseismic slip equivalent to a Mw 5.8 event. Coulomb stress changes suggest that the aseismic event was likely triggered by the preceding main shock and that the aseismic slip event probably brought the second fault closer to failure. Our findings show significant correlations between static stress changes and seismicity and suggest that stress interaction between earthquakes plays a significant role among continental en echelon thrusts.

Contributions to the Chile’s Seismic History: the Case of the Great Earthquake of 1730

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

María X. Urbina Carrasco

2016-12-01

Full Text Available According to the new and previously known documents it is concluded the earthquake of Chile in 1730 was composed by two independent earthquakes, each associated to a tsunami. Considering the latitudinal extension of the damage and the size of the tsunamis, it can be taken as the largest seismic event occurred in the history of Metropolitan or Central Chile. These conclusions allow to know better the seismic sequence of Central Chile, the Seismic History of the country, and contribute to the knowledge of the colonial history of the kingdom of Chile.

The earthquake problem in engineering design: generating earthquake design basis information

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sharma, R.D.

1987-01-01

Designing earthquake resistant structures requires certain design inputs specific to the seismotectonic status of the region, in which a critical facility is to be located. Generating these inputs requires collection of earthquake related information using present day techniques in seismology and geology, and processing the collected information to integrate it to arrive at a consolidated picture of the seismotectonics of the region. The earthquake problem in engineering design has been outlined in the context of a seismic design of nuclear power plants vis a vis current state of the art techniques. The extent to which the accepted procedures of assessing seismic risk in the region and generating the design inputs have been adherred to determine to a great extent the safety of the structures against future earthquakes. The document is a step towards developing an aproach for generating these inputs, which form the earthquake design basis. (author)

Shake Table Study on the Effect of Mainshock-Aftershock Sequences on Structures with SFSI

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Xiaoyang Qin

2017-01-01

Full Text Available Observations from recent earthquakes have emphasised the need for a better understanding of the effects of structure-footing-soil interaction on the response of structures. In order to incorporate the influences of soil, a laminar box can be used to contain the soil during experiments. The laminar box simulates field boundary conditions by allowing the soil to shear during shake table tests. A holistic response of a structure and supporting soil can thus be obtained by placing a model structure on the surface of the soil in the laminar box. This work reveals the response of structure with SFSI under mainshock and aftershock earthquake sequences. A large (2 m by 2 m laminar box, capable of simulating the behaviour of both dry and saturated soils, was constructed. A model structure was placed on dry sand in the laminar box. The setup was excited by a sequence of earthquake excitations. The first excitation was used to obtain the response of the model on sand under the mainshock of an earthquake. The second and third excitations represented the first and second aftershocks, respectively.

Lessons of L'Aquila for Operational Earthquake Forecasting

Science.gov (United States)

Jordan, T. H.

2012-12-01

The L'Aquila earthquake of 6 Apr 2009 (magnitude 6.3) killed 309 people and left tens of thousands homeless. The mainshock was preceded by a vigorous seismic sequence that prompted informal earthquake predictions and evacuations. In an attempt to calm the population, the Italian Department of Civil Protection (DPC) convened its Commission on the Forecasting and Prevention of Major Risk (MRC) in L'Aquila on 31 March 2009 and issued statements about the hazard that were widely received as an "anti-alarm"; i.e., a deterministic prediction that there would not be a major earthquake. On October 23, 2012, a court in L'Aquila convicted the vice-director of DPC and six scientists and engineers who attended the MRC meeting on charges of criminal manslaughter, and it sentenced each to six years in prison. A few weeks after the L'Aquila disaster, the Italian government convened an International Commission on Earthquake Forecasting for Civil Protection (ICEF) with the mandate to assess the status of short-term forecasting methods and to recommend how they should be used in civil protection. The ICEF, which I chaired, issued its findings and recommendations on 2 Oct 2009 and published its final report, "Operational Earthquake Forecasting: Status of Knowledge and Guidelines for Implementation," in Aug 2011 (www.annalsofgeophysics.eu/index.php/annals/article/view/5350). As defined by the Commission, operational earthquake forecasting (OEF) involves two key activities: the continual updating of authoritative information about the future occurrence of potentially damaging earthquakes, and the officially sanctioned dissemination of this information to enhance earthquake preparedness in threatened communities. Among the main lessons of L'Aquila is the need to separate the role of science advisors, whose job is to provide objective information about natural hazards, from that of civil decision-makers who must weigh the benefits of protective actions against the costs of false alarms

Quick regional centroid moment tensor solutions for the Emilia 2012 (northern Italy seismic sequence

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Silvia Pondrelli

2012-10-01

Full Text Available In May 2012, a seismic sequence struck the Emilia region (northern Italy. The mainshock, of Ml 5.9, occurred on May 20, 2012, at 02:03 UTC. This was preceded by a smaller Ml 4.1 foreshock some hours before (23:13 UTC on May 19, 2012 and followed by more than 2,500 earthquakes in the magnitude range from Ml 0.7 to 5.2. In addition, on May 29, 2012, three further strong earthquakes occurred, all with magnitude Ml ≥5.2: a Ml 5.8 earthquake in the morning (07:00 UTC, followed by two events within just 5 min of each other, one at 10:55 UTC (Ml 5.3 and the second at 11:00 UTC (Ml 5.2. For all of the Ml ≥4.0 earthquakes in Italy and for all of the Ml ≥4.5 in the Mediterranean area, an automatic procedure for the computation of a regional centroid moment tensor (RCMT is triggered by an email alert. Within 1 h of the event, a manually revised quick RCMT (QRCMT can be published on the website if the solution is considered stable. In particular, for the Emilia seismic sequence, 13 QRCMTs were determined and for three of them, those with M >5.5, the automatically computed QRCMTs fitted the criteria for publication without manual revision. Using this seismic sequence as a test, we can then identify the magnitude threshold for automatic publication of our QRCMTs.

Stress Interactions Between the 1976 Magnitude 7.8 Tangshan Earthquake and Adjacent Fault Systems in Northern China

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Z.; Lin, J.; Chen, Y. J.

2004-12-01

The 28 July 1976 ML = 7.8 Tangshan earthquake struck a highly populated metropolitan center in northern China and was one of the most devastating earthquakes in modern history. Its occurrence has significantly changed the Coulomb stresses on a complex network of strike-slip, normal, and thrust faults in the region, potentially heightened the odds of future earthquakes on some of these fault segments. We have conducted a detailed analysis of the 3D stress effects of the Tangshan earthquake on its neighboring faults, the relationship between stress transfer and aftershock locations, and the implications for future seismic hazard in the region. Available seismic and geodetic data, although limited, indicate that the Tangshan main shock sequence is composed of complex rupture on 2-3 fault segments. The dominant rupture mode is right-lateral strike-slip on two adjoining sub-segments that strike N5¡aE and N35¡aE, respectively. We calculated that the Tangshan main shock sequence has increased the Coulomb failure stress by more than 1 bar in the vicinity of the Lunanxian district to the east, where the largest aftershock (ML = 7.1) occurred 15 hours after the Tangshan main event. The second largest aftershock (ML = 6.8) occurred on the Ninghe fault to the southwest of the main rupture, in a transitional region between the calculated Coulomb stress increase and decrease. The majority of the ML > 5.0 aftershocks also occurred in areas of calculated Coulomb stress increase. Our analyses further indicate that the Coulomb stress on portions of other fault segments, including the Leting and Lulong fault to the east and Yejito fault to the north, may also have been increased. Thus it is critical to obtain estimates of earthquake repeat times on these and other tectonic faults and to acquire continuous GPS and space geodetic measurements. Investigation of stress interaction and earthquake triggering in northern China is not only highly societal relevant but also important for

Understanding earthquakes: The key role of radar images

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Atzori, Simone

2013-01-01

The investigation of the fault rupture underlying earthquakes greatly improved thanks to the spread of radar images. Following pioneer applications in the eighties, Interferometry from Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) gained a prominent role in geodesy. Its capability to measure millimetric deformations for wide areas and the increased data availability from the early nineties, made InSAR a diffused and accepted analysis tool in tectonics, though several factors contribute to reduce the data quality. With the introduction of analytical or numerical modeling, InSAR maps are used to infer the source of an earthquake by means of data inversion. Newly developed algorithms, known as InSAR time-series, allowed to further improve the data accuracy and completeness, strengthening the InSAR contribution even in the study of the inter- and post-seismic phases. In this work we describe the rationale at the base of the whole processing, showing its application to the New Zealand 2010–2011 seismic sequence

Understanding earthquakes: The key role of radar images

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Atzori, Simone, E-mail: simone.atzori@ingv.it [Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Rome (Italy)

2013-08-21

The investigation of the fault rupture underlying earthquakes greatly improved thanks to the spread of radar images. Following pioneer applications in the eighties, Interferometry from Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) gained a prominent role in geodesy. Its capability to measure millimetric deformations for wide areas and the increased data availability from the early nineties, made InSAR a diffused and accepted analysis tool in tectonics, though several factors contribute to reduce the data quality. With the introduction of analytical or numerical modeling, InSAR maps are used to infer the source of an earthquake by means of data inversion. Newly developed algorithms, known as InSAR time-series, allowed to further improve the data accuracy and completeness, strengthening the InSAR contribution even in the study of the inter- and post-seismic phases. In this work we describe the rationale at the base of the whole processing, showing its application to the New Zealand 2010–2011 seismic sequence.

Limitation of the Predominant-Period Estimator for Earthquake Early Warning and the Initial Rupture of Earthquakes

Science.gov (United States)

Yamada, T.; Ide, S.

2007-12-01

Earthquake early warning is an important and challenging issue for the reduction of the seismic damage, especially for the mitigation of human suffering. One of the most important problems in earthquake early warning systems is how immediately we can estimate the final size of an earthquake after we observe the ground motion. It is relevant to the problem whether the initial rupture of an earthquake has some information associated with its final size. Nakamura (1988) developed the Urgent Earthquake Detection and Alarm System (UrEDAS). It calculates the predominant period of the P wave (τp) and estimates the magnitude of an earthquake immediately after the P wave arrival from the value of τpmax, or the maximum value of τp. The similar approach has been adapted by other earthquake alarm systems (e.g., Allen and Kanamori (2003)). To investigate the characteristic of the parameter τp and the effect of the length of the time window (TW) in the τpmax calculation, we analyze the high-frequency recordings of earthquakes at very close distances in the Mponeng mine in South Africa. We find that values of τpmax have upper and lower limits. For larger earthquakes whose source durations are longer than TW, the values of τpmax have an upper limit which depends on TW. On the other hand, the values for smaller earthquakes have a lower limit which is proportional to the sampling interval. For intermediate earthquakes, the values of τpmax are close to their typical source durations. These two limits and the slope for intermediate earthquakes yield an artificial final size dependence of τpmax in a wide size range. The parameter τpmax is useful for detecting large earthquakes and broadcasting earthquake early warnings. However, its dependence on the final size of earthquakes does not suggest that the earthquake rupture is deterministic. This is because τpmax does not always have a direct relation to the physical quantities of an earthquake.

Correlation of pre-earthquake electromagnetic signals with laboratory and field rock experiments

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

T. Bleier

2010-09-01

Full Text Available Analysis of the 2007 M5.4 Alum Rock earthquake near San José California showed that magnetic pulsations were present in large numbers and with significant amplitudes during the 2 week period leading up the event. These pulsations were 1–30 s in duration, had unusual polarities (many with only positive or only negative polarities versus both polarities, and were different than other pulsations observed over 2 years of data in that the pulse sequence was sustained over a 2 week period prior to the quake, and then disappeared shortly after the quake. A search for the underlying physics process that might explain these pulses was was undertaken, and one theory (Freund, 2002 demonstrated that charge carriers were released when various types of rocks were stressed in a laboratory environment. It was also significant that the observed charge carrier generation was transient, and resulted in pulsating current patterns. In an attempt to determine if this phenomenon occurred outside of the laboratory environment, the authors scaled up the physics experiment from a relatively small rock sample in a dry laboratory setting, to a large 7 metric tonne boulder comprised of Yosemite granite. This boulder was located in a natural, humid (above ground setting at Bass Lake, Ca. The boulder was instrumented with two Zonge Engineering, Model ANT4 induction type magnetometers, two Trifield Air Ion Counters, a surface charge detector, a geophone, a Bruker Model EM27 Fourier Transform Infra Red (FTIR spectrometer with Sterling cycle cooler, and various temperature sensors. The boulder was stressed over about 8 h using expanding concrete (Bustar^tm, until it fractured into three major pieces. The recorded data showed surface charge build up, magnetic pulsations, impulsive air conductivity changes, and acoustical cues starting about 5 h before the boulder actually broke. These magnetic and air conductivity pulse signatures resembled both the laboratory

Multi-Sensors Observations of Pre-Earthquake Signals. What We Learned from the Great Tohoku Earthquake?

Science.gov (United States)

Ouzonounov, D.; Pulinets, S.; Papadopoulos, G.; Kunitsyn, V.; Nesterov, I.; Hattori, K.; Kafatos, M.; Taylor, P.

2012-01-01

The lessons learned from the Great Tohoku EQ (Japan, 2011) will affect our future observations and an analysis is the main focus of this presentation. Multi-sensors observations and multidisciplinary research is presented in our study of the phenomena preceding major earthquakes Our approach is based on a systematic analysis of several physical and environmental parameters, which been reported by others in connections with earthquake processes: thermal infrared radiation; temperature; concentration of electrons in the ionosphere; radon/ion activities; and atmospheric temperature/humidity [Ouzounov et al, 2011]. We used the Lithosphere-Atmosphere-Ionosphere Coupling (LAIC) model, one of several possible paradigms [Pulinets and Ouzounov, 2011] to interpret our observations. We retrospectively analyzed the temporal and spatial variations of three different physical parameters characterizing the state of the atmosphere, ionosphere the ground surface several days before the March 11, 2011 M9 Tohoku earthquake Namely: (i) Outgoing Long wave Radiation (OLR) measured at the top of the atmosphere; (ii) Anomalous variations of ionospheric parameters revealed by multi-sensors observations; and (iii) The change in the foreshock sequence (rate, space and time); Our results show that on March 8th, 2011 a rapid increase of emitted infrared radiation was observed and an anomaly developed near the epicenter with largest value occurring on March 11 at 07.30 LT. The GPS/TEC data indicate an increase and variation in electron density reaching a maximum value on March 8. Starting from this day in the lower ionosphere there was also observed an abnormal TEC variation over the epicenter. From March 3 to 11 a large increase in electron concentration was recorded at all four Japanese ground-based ionosondes, which returned to normal after the main earthquake. We use the Japanese GPS network stations and method of Radio Tomography to study the spatiotemporal structure of ionospheric

Preliminary Results on Earthquake Recurrence Intervals, Rupture Segmentation, and Potential Earthquake Moment Magnitudes along the Tahoe-Sierra Frontal Fault Zone, Lake Tahoe, California

Science.gov (United States)

Howle, J.; Bawden, G. W.; Schweickert, R. A.; Hunter, L. E.; Rose, R.

2012-12-01

Utilizing high-resolution bare-earth LiDAR topography, field observations, and earlier results of Howle et al. (2012), we estimate latest Pleistocene/Holocene earthquake-recurrence intervals, propose scenarios for earthquake-rupture segmentation, and estimate potential earthquake moment magnitudes for the Tahoe-Sierra frontal fault zone (TSFFZ), west of Lake Tahoe, California. We have developed a new technique to estimate the vertical separation for the most recent and the previous ground-rupturing earthquakes at five sites along the Echo Peak and Mt. Tallac segments of the TSFFZ. At these sites are fault scarps with two bevels separated by an inflection point (compound fault scarps), indicating that the cumulative vertical separation (VS) across the scarp resulted from two events. This technique, modified from the modeling methods of Howle et al. (2012), uses the far-field plunge of the best-fit footwall vector and the fault-scarp morphology from high-resolution LiDAR profiles to estimate the per-event VS. From this data, we conclude that the adjacent and overlapping Echo Peak and Mt. Tallac segments have ruptured coseismically twice during the Holocene. The right-stepping, en echelon range-front segments of the TSFFZ show progressively greater VS rates and shorter earthquake-recurrence intervals from southeast to northwest. Our preliminary estimates suggest latest Pleistocene/ Holocene earthquake-recurrence intervals of 4.8±0.9x103 years for a coseismic rupture of the Echo Peak and Mt. Tallac segments, located at the southeastern end of the TSFFZ. For the Rubicon Peak segment, northwest of the Echo Peak and Mt. Tallac segments, our preliminary estimate of the maximum earthquake-recurrence interval is 2.8±1.0x103 years, based on data from two sites. The correspondence between high VS rates and short recurrence intervals suggests that earthquake sequences along the TSFFZ may initiate in the northwest part of the zone and then occur to the southeast with a lower

Earthquake engineering development before and after the March 4, 1977, Vrancea, Romania earthquake

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Georgescu, E.-S.

2002-01-01

At 25 years since the of the Vrancea earthquake of March, 4th 1977, we can analyze in an open and critical way its impact on the evolution of earthquake engineering codes and protection policies in Romania. The earthquake (M G-R = 7.2; M w = 7.5), produced 1,570 casualties and more than 11,300 injured persons (90% of the victims in Bucharest), seismic losses were estimated at more then USD 2 billions. The 1977 earthquake represented a significant episode of XXth century in seismic zones of Romania and neighboring countries. The INCERC seismic record of March 4, 1977 put, for the first time, in evidence the spectral content of long period seismic motions of Vrancea earthquakes, the duration, the number of cycles and values of actual accelerations, with important effects of overloading upon flexible structures. The seismic coefficients k s , the spectral curve (the dynamic coefficient β r ) and the seismic zonation map, the requirements in the antiseismic design norms were drastically, changed while the microzonation maps of the time ceased to be used, and the specific Vrancea earthquake recurrence was reconsidered based on hazard studies Thus, the paper emphasises: - the existing engineering knowledge, earthquake code and zoning maps requirements until 1977 as well as seismology and structural lessons since 1977; - recent aspects of implementing of the Earthquake Code P.100/1992 and harmonization with Eurocodes, in conjunction with the specific of urban and rural seismic risk and enforcing policies on strengthening of existing buildings; - a strategic view of disaster prevention, using earthquake scenarios and loss assessments, insurance, earthquake education and training; - the need of a closer transfer of knowledge between seismologists, engineers and officials in charge with disaster prevention public policies. (author)

A seismological overview of the induced earthquakes in the Duvernay play near Fox Creek, Alberta

Science.gov (United States)

Schultz, Ryan; Wang, Ruijia; Gu, Yu Jeffrey; Haug, Kristine; Atkinson, Gail

2017-01-01

This paper summarizes the current state of understanding regarding the induced seismicity in connection with hydraulic fracturing operations targeting the Duvernay Formation in central Alberta, near the town of Fox Creek. We demonstrate that earthquakes in this region cluster into distinct sequences in time, space, and focal mechanism using (i) cross-correlation detection methods to delineate transient temporal relationships, (ii) double-difference relocations to confirm spatial clustering, and (iii) moment tensor solutions to assess fault motion consistency. The spatiotemporal clustering of the earthquake sequences is strongly related to the nearby hydraulic fracturing operations. In addition, we identify a preference for strike-slip motions on subvertical faults with an approximate 45° P axis orientation, consistent with expectation from the ambient stress field. The hypocentral geometries for two of the largest-magnitude (M 4) sequences that are robustly constrained by local array data provide compelling evidence for planar features starting at Duvernay Formation depths and extending into the shallow Precambrian basement. We interpret these lineaments as subvertical faults orientated approximately north-south, consistent with the regional moment tensor solutions. Finally, we conclude that the sequences were triggered by pore pressure increases in response to hydraulic fracturing stimulations along previously existing faults.

The music of earthquakes and Earthquake Quartet #1

Science.gov (United States)

Michael, Andrew J.

2013-01-01

Earthquake Quartet #1, my composition for voice, trombone, cello, and seismograms, is the intersection of listening to earthquakes as a seismologist and performing music as a trombonist. Along the way, I realized there is a close relationship between what I do as a scientist and what I do as a musician. A musician controls the source of the sound and the path it travels through their instrument in order to make sound waves that we hear as music. An earthquake is the source of waves that travel along a path through the earth until reaching us as shaking. It is almost as if the earth is a musician and people, including seismologists, are metaphorically listening and trying to understand what the music means.

Earthquake-induced soft-sediment deformations and seismically amplified erosion rates recorded in varved sediments of Köyceğiz Lake (SW Turkey)

KAUST Repository

Avsar, Ulas

2016-06-06

Earthquake-triggered landslides amplify erosion rates in catchments, i.e. catchment response to seismic shocks (CR). In addition to historical eyewitness accounts of muddy rivers implying CRs after large earthquakes, several studies have quantitatively reported increased sediment concentrations in rivers after earthquakes. However, only a few paleolimnological studies could detect CRs within lacustrine sedimentary sequences as siliciclastic-enriched intercalations within background sedimentation. Since siliciclastic-enriched intercalations can easily be of non-seismic origin, their temporal correlation with nearby earthquakes is crucial to assign a seismic triggering mechanism. In most cases, either uncertainties in dating methods or the lack of recent seismic activity has prevented reliable temporal correlations, making the seismic origin of observed sedimentary events questionable. Here, we attempt to remove this question mark by presenting sedimentary traces of CRs in the 370-year-long varved sequence of Köyceğiz Lake (SW Turkey) that we compare with estimated peak ground acceleration (PGA) values of several nearby earthquakes. We find that earthquakes exceeding estimated PGA values of ca. 20 cm/s2 can induce soft-sediment deformations (SSD), while CRs seem only to be triggered by PGA levels higher than 70 cm/s2. In Köyceğiz Lake, CRs produce Cr- and Ni-enriched sedimentation due to the seismically mobilized soils derived from ultramafic rocks in the catchment. Given the varve chronology, the residence time of the seismically mobilized material in the catchment is determined to be 5 to 10 years.

Toward real-time regional earthquake simulation of Taiwan earthquakes

Science.gov (United States)

Lee, S.; Liu, Q.; Tromp, J.; Komatitsch, D.; Liang, W.; Huang, B.

2013-12-01

We developed a Real-time Online earthquake Simulation system (ROS) to simulate regional earthquakes in Taiwan. The ROS uses a centroid moment tensor solution of seismic events from a Real-time Moment Tensor monitoring system (RMT), which provides all the point source parameters including the event origin time, hypocentral location, moment magnitude and focal mechanism within 2 minutes after the occurrence of an earthquake. Then, all of the source parameters are automatically forwarded to the ROS to perform an earthquake simulation, which is based on a spectral-element method (SEM). We have improved SEM mesh quality by introducing a thin high-resolution mesh layer near the surface to accommodate steep and rapidly varying topography. The mesh for the shallow sedimentary basin is adjusted to reflect its complex geometry and sharp lateral velocity contrasts. The grid resolution at the surface is about 545 m, which is sufficient to resolve topography and tomography data for simulations accurate up to 1.0 Hz. The ROS is also an infrastructural service, making online earthquake simulation feasible. Users can conduct their own earthquake simulation by providing a set of source parameters through the ROS webpage. For visualization, a ShakeMovie and ShakeMap are produced during the simulation. The time needed for one event is roughly 3 minutes for a 70 sec ground motion simulation. The ROS is operated online at the Institute of Earth Sciences, Academia Sinica (http://ros.earth.sinica.edu.tw/). Our long-term goal for the ROS system is to contribute to public earth science outreach and to realize seismic ground motion prediction in real-time.

Geophysical Anomalies and Earthquake Prediction

Science.gov (United States)

Jackson, D. D.

2008-12-01

Finding anomalies is easy. Predicting earthquakes convincingly from such anomalies is far from easy. Why? Why have so many beautiful geophysical abnormalities not led to successful prediction strategies? What is earthquake prediction? By my definition it is convincing information that an earthquake of specified size is temporarily much more likely than usual in a specific region for a specified time interval. We know a lot about normal earthquake behavior, including locations where earthquake rates are higher than elsewhere, with estimable rates and size distributions. We know that earthquakes have power law size distributions over large areas, that they cluster in time and space, and that aftershocks follow with power-law dependence on time. These relationships justify prudent protective measures and scientific investigation. Earthquake prediction would justify exceptional temporary measures well beyond those normal prudent actions. Convincing earthquake prediction would result from methods that have demonstrated many successes with few false alarms. Predicting earthquakes convincingly is difficult for several profound reasons. First, earthquakes start in tiny volumes at inaccessible depth. The power law size dependence means that tiny unobservable ones are frequent almost everywhere and occasionally grow to larger size. Thus prediction of important earthquakes is not about nucleation, but about identifying the conditions for growth. Second, earthquakes are complex. They derive their energy from stress, which is perniciously hard to estimate or model because it is nearly singular at the margins of cracks and faults. Physical properties vary from place to place, so the preparatory processes certainly vary as well. Thus establishing the needed track record for validation is very difficult, especially for large events with immense interval times in any one location. Third, the anomalies are generally complex as well. Electromagnetic anomalies in particular require

Historical earthquake research in Austria

Science.gov (United States)

Hammerl, Christa

2017-12-01

Austria has a moderate seismicity, and on average the population feels 40 earthquakes per year or approximately three earthquakes per month. A severe earthquake with light building damage is expected roughly every 2 to 3 years in Austria. Severe damage to buildings ( I 0 > 8° EMS) occurs significantly less frequently, the average period of recurrence is about 75 years. For this reason the historical earthquake research has been of special importance in Austria. The interest in historical earthquakes in the past in the Austro-Hungarian Empire is outlined, beginning with an initiative of the Austrian Academy of Sciences and the development of historical earthquake research as an independent research field after the 1978 "Zwentendorf plebiscite" on whether the nuclear power plant will start up. The applied methods are introduced briefly along with the most important studies and last but not least as an example of a recently carried out case study, one of the strongest past earthquakes in Austria, the earthquake of 17 July 1670, is presented. The research into historical earthquakes in Austria concentrates on seismic events of the pre-instrumental period. The investigations are not only of historical interest, but also contribute to the completeness and correctness of the Austrian earthquake catalogue, which is the basis for seismic hazard analysis and as such benefits the public, communities, civil engineers, architects, civil protection, and many others.

Potential of future seismogenesis in Hebei Province (NE China) due to stress interactions between strong earthquakes

Science.gov (United States)

Karakostas, Vassilios; Papadimitriou, Eleftheria; Jin, Xueshen; Liu, Zhihui; Paradisopoulou, Parthena; He, Zhang

2013-10-01

Northeast China, a densely populated area, is affected by intense seismic activity, which includes large events that caused extensive disaster and tremendous loss of life. For contributing to the continuous efforts for seismic hazard assessment, the earthquake potential from the active faults near the cities of Zhangjiakou and Langfang in Hebei Province is examined. We estimate the effect of the coseismic stress changes of strong (M ⩾ 5.0) earthquakes on the major regional active faults, and mapped Coulomb stress change onto these target faults. More importantly our calculations reveal that positive stress changes caused by the largest events of the 1976 Tangshan sequence make the Xiadian and part of Daxing fault, thus considered the most likely sites of the next strong earthquake in the study area. The accumulated static stress changes that reached a value of up to 0.4 bar onto these faults, were subsequently incorporated in earthquake probability estimates for the next 30 years.

Predictability of Landslide Timing From Quasi-Periodic Precursory Earthquakes

Science.gov (United States)

Bell, Andrew F.

2018-02-01

Accelerating rates of geophysical signals are observed before a range of material failure phenomena. They provide insights into the physical processes controlling failure and the basis for failure forecasts. However, examples of accelerating seismicity before landslides are rare, and their behavior and forecasting potential are largely unknown. Here I use a Bayesian methodology to apply a novel gamma point process model to investigate a sequence of quasiperiodic repeating earthquakes preceding a large landslide at Nuugaatsiaq in Greenland in June 2017. The evolution in earthquake rate is best explained by an inverse power law increase with time toward failure, as predicted by material failure theory. However, the commonly accepted power law exponent value of 1.0 is inconsistent with the data. Instead, the mean posterior value of 0.71 indicates a particularly rapid acceleration toward failure and suggests that only relatively short warning times may be possible for similar landslides in future.

Where was the 1898 Mare Island Earthquake? Insights from the 2014 South Napa Earthquake

Science.gov (United States)

Hough, S. E.

2014-12-01

The 2014 South Napa earthquake provides an opportunity to reconsider the Mare Island earthquake of 31 March 1898, which caused severe damage to buildings at a Navy yard on the island. Revising archival accounts of the 1898 earthquake, I estimate a lower intensity magnitude, 5.8, than the value in the current Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast (UCERF) catalog (6.4). However, I note that intensity magnitude can differ from Mw by upwards of half a unit depending on stress drop, which for a historical earthquake is unknowable. In the aftermath of the 2014 earthquake, there has been speculation that apparently severe effects on Mare Island in 1898 were due to the vulnerability of local structures. No surface rupture has ever been identified from the 1898 event, which is commonly associated with the Hayward-Rodgers Creek fault system, some 10 km west of Mare Island (e.g., Parsons et al., 2003). Reconsideration of detailed archival accounts of the 1898 earthquake, together with a comparison of the intensity distributions for the two earthquakes, points to genuinely severe, likely near-field ground motions on Mare Island. The 2014 earthquake did cause significant damage to older brick buildings on Mare Island, but the level of damage does not match the severity of documented damage in 1898. The high intensity files for the two earthquakes are more over spatially shifted, with the centroid of the 2014 distribution near the town of Napa and that of the 1898 distribution near Mare Island, east of the Hayward-Rodgers Creek system. I conclude that the 1898 Mare Island earthquake was centered on or near Mare Island, possibly involving rupture of one or both strands of the Franklin fault, a low-slip-rate fault sub-parallel to the Rodgers Creek fault to the west and the West Napa fault to the east. I estimate Mw5.8 assuming an average stress drop; data are also consistent with Mw6.4 if stress drop was a factor of ≈3 lower than average for California earthquakes. I

Earthquakes, May-June 1991

Science.gov (United States)

Person, W.J.

1992-01-01

One major earthquake occurred during this reporting period. This was a magntidue 7.1 in Indonesia (Minahassa Peninsula) on June 20. Earthquake-related deaths were reported in the Western Caucasus (Georgia, USSR) on May 3 and June 15. One earthquake-related death was also reported El Salvador on June 21. 

Modeling, Forecasting and Mitigating Extreme Earthquakes

Science.gov (United States)

Ismail-Zadeh, A.; Le Mouel, J.; Soloviev, A.

2012-12-01

Recent earthquake disasters highlighted the importance of multi- and trans-disciplinary studies of earthquake risk. A major component of earthquake disaster risk analysis is hazards research, which should cover not only a traditional assessment of ground shaking, but also studies of geodetic, paleoseismic, geomagnetic, hydrological, deep drilling and other geophysical and geological observations together with comprehensive modeling of earthquakes and forecasting extreme events. Extreme earthquakes (large magnitude and rare events) are manifestations of complex behavior of the lithosphere structured as a hierarchical system of blocks of different sizes. Understanding of physics and dynamics of the extreme events comes from observations, measurements and modeling. A quantitative approach to simulate earthquakes in models of fault dynamics will be presented. The models reproduce basic features of the observed seismicity (e.g., the frequency-magnitude relationship, clustering of earthquakes, occurrence of extreme seismic events). They provide a link between geodynamic processes and seismicity, allow studying extreme events, influence of fault network properties on seismic patterns and seismic cycles, and assist, in a broader sense, in earthquake forecast modeling. Some aspects of predictability of large earthquakes (how well can large earthquakes be predicted today?) will be also discussed along with possibilities in mitigation of earthquake disasters (e.g., on 'inverse' forensic investigations of earthquake disasters).

The Implications of Strike-Slip Earthquake Source Properties on the Transform Boundary Development Process

Science.gov (United States)

Neely, J. S.; Huang, Y.; Furlong, K.

2017-12-01

Subduction-Transform Edge Propagator (STEP) faults, produced by the tearing of a subducting plate, allow us to study the development of a transform plate boundary and improve our understanding of both long-term geologic processes and short-term seismic hazards. The 280 km long San Cristobal Trough (SCT), formed by the tearing of the Australia plate as it subducts under the Pacific plate near the Solomon and Vanuatu subduction zones, shows along-strike variations in earthquake behaviors. The segment of the SCT closest to the tear rarely hosts earthquakes > Mw 6, whereas the SCT sections more than 80 - 100 km from the tear experience Mw7 earthquakes with repeated rupture along the same segments. To understand the effect of cumulative displacement on SCT seismicity, we analyze b-values, centroid-time delays and corner frequencies of the SCT earthquakes. We use the spectral ratio method based on Empirical Green's Functions (eGfs) to isolate source effects from propagation and site effects. We find high b-values along the SCT closest to the tear with values decreasing with distance before finally increasing again towards the far end of the SCT. Centroid time-delays for the Mw 7 strike-slip earthquakes increase with distance from the tear, but corner frequency estimates for a recent sequence of Mw 7 earthquakes are approximately equal, indicating a growing complexity in earthquake behavior with distance from the tear due to a displacement-driven transform boundary development process (see figure). The increasing complexity possibly stems from the earthquakes along the eastern SCT rupturing through multiple asperities resulting in multiple moment pulses. If not for the bounding Vanuatu subduction zone at the far end of the SCT, the eastern SCT section, which has experienced the most displacement, might be capable of hosting larger earthquakes. When assessing the seismic hazard of other STEP faults, cumulative fault displacement should be considered a key input in

Earthquake Catalogue of the Caucasus

Science.gov (United States)

Godoladze, T.; Gok, R.; Tvaradze, N.; Tumanova, N.; Gunia, I.; Onur, T.

2016-12-01

The Caucasus has a documented historical catalog stretching back to the beginning of the Christian era. Most of the largest historical earthquakes prior to the 19th century are assumed to have occurred on active faults of the Greater Caucasus. Important earthquakes include the Samtskhe earthquake of 1283 (Ms˜7.0, Io=9); Lechkhumi-Svaneti earthquake of 1350 (Ms˜7.0, Io=9); and the Alaverdi earthquake of 1742 (Ms˜6.8, Io=9). Two significant historical earthquakes that may have occurred within the Javakheti plateau in the Lesser Caucasus are the Tmogvi earthquake of 1088 (Ms˜6.5, Io=9) and the Akhalkalaki earthquake of 1899 (Ms˜6.3, Io =8-9). Large earthquakes that occurred in the Caucasus within the period of instrumental observation are: Gori 1920; Tabatskuri 1940; Chkhalta 1963; Racha earthquake of 1991 (Ms=7.0), is the largest event ever recorded in the region; Barisakho earthquake of 1992 (M=6.5); Spitak earthquake of 1988 (Ms=6.9, 100 km south of Tbilisi), which killed over 50,000 people in Armenia. Recently, permanent broadband stations have been deployed across the region as part of the various national networks (Georgia (˜25 stations), Azerbaijan (˜35 stations), Armenia (˜14 stations)). The data from the last 10 years of observation provides an opportunity to perform modern, fundamental scientific investigations. In order to improve seismic data quality a catalog of all instrumentally recorded earthquakes has been compiled by the IES (Institute of Earth Sciences/NSMC, Ilia State University) in the framework of regional joint project (Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia, Turkey, USA) "Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment (PSHA) in the Caucasus. The catalogue consists of more then 80,000 events. First arrivals of each earthquake of Mw>=4.0 have been carefully examined. To reduce calculation errors, we corrected arrivals from the seismic records. We improved locations of the events and recalculate Moment magnitudes in order to obtain unified magnitude

Genotypic Characterization of Human Immunodeficiency Virus Type 1 Derived from Antiretroviral Drug-Treated Individuals Residing in Earthquake-Affected Areas in Nepal.

Science.gov (United States)

Negi, Bharat Singh; Kotaki, Tomohiro; Joshi, Sunil Kumar; Bastola, Anup; Nakazawa, Minato; Kameoka, Masanori

2017-09-01

Molecular epidemiological data on human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) are limited in Nepal and have not been available in areas affected by the April 2015 earthquake. Therefore, we conducted a genotypic study on HIV-1 genes derived from individuals on antiretroviral therapy residing in 14 districts in Nepal highly affected by the earthquake. HIV-1 genomic fragments were amplified from 40 blood samples of HIV treatment-failure individuals, and a sequencing analysis was performed on these genes. In the 40 samples, 29 protease, 32 reverse transcriptase, 25 gag, and 21 env genes were sequenced. HIV-1 subtyping revealed that subtype C (84.2%, 32/38) was the major subtype prevalent in the region, while CRF01_AE (7.9%, 3/38) and other recombinant forms (7.9%, 3/38) were also detected. In addition, major drug resistance mutations were identified in 21.9% (7/32) of samples, indicating the possible emergence of HIV-1 drug resistance in earthquake-affected areas in Nepal.

Atmospheric processes in reaction of Northern Sumatra Earthquake sequence Dec 2004-Apr 2005

Science.gov (United States)

Ouzounov, D.; Pulinets, S.; Cervone, G.; Singh, R.; Taylor, P.

2005-05-01

This work describes our first results in analyzing data from different and independent sources ûemitted long-wavelength radiation (OLR), surface latent heat flux (SHLF) and GPS Total Electron Content (TEC) collected from ground based (GPS) and satellite TIR (thermal infra-red) data sources (NOAA/AVHRR, MODIS). We found atmosphere and ionosphere anomalies one week prior to both the Sumatra-Andaman Islands earthquake (Dec 26, 2004) and M 8.7 - Northern Sumatra, March 28, 2005. We analyzed 118 days of data from December 1, 2004 through April 1, 2005 for the area (0°-10°,north latitude and 90°-100° east longitude) which included 125 earthquakes with M>5.5. Recent analysis of the continuous OLR from the Earth surface indicates anomalous variations (on top of the atmosphere) prior to a number of medium to large earthquakes. In the case of M 9.0 - Sumatra-Andaman Islands event, compared to the reference fields for the months of December between 2001 and 2004, we found strongly OLR anomalous +80 W/m2 signals (two sigma) along the epicentral area on Dec 21, 2004 five days before the event. In the case of M8.7 March 28, 2005 anomalues signatures over the epicenter appears on March 26 is much weaker (only +20W/m2) and have a different topology. Anomalous values of SHLF associated with M9.0 - Sumatra-Andaman Islands were found on Dec 22, 2005 (SLHF +280Wm2) and less intensity on Mar 23, 2005 (SLHF +180Wm2). Ionospheric variations (GPS/TEC) associated with the Northern Sumatra events were determine by five Regional GPS network stations (COCO, BAKO, NTUS, HYDE and BAST2). For every station time series of the vertical TEC (VTEC) were computed together with correlation with the Dst index. On December 22, four days prior to the M9.0 quake GPS/TEC data reach the monthly maximum for COCO with minor DST activity. For the M 8.7-March 28 event, the increased values of GPS/TEC were observed during four days (March 22-25) in quiet geomagnetic background. Our results need additional

Earthquake swarm in the non-volcanic area north of Harrat Lunayyir, western Saudi Arabia: observations and imaging

Science.gov (United States)

Youssof, M.; Mai, P. M.; Parisi, L.; Tang, Z.; Zahran, H. M.; El-Hadidy, S. Y.; Al-Raddadi, W.; Sami, M.; El-Hadidy, M. S. Y.

2017-12-01

We report on an unusual earthquake swarm in a non-volcanic area of western Saudi Arabia. Since March 2017, hundreds of earthquakes were recorded, reaching magnitude Ml 3.7, which occurred within a very narrowly defined rock volume. The seismicity is shallow, mostly between 4 to 8 km depths, with some events reaching as deep as 16 km. One set of events aligns into a well-defined horizontal tube of 2 km height, 1 km width, and 4-5 km E-W extent. Other event clusters exist, but are less well-defined. The focal mechanism solutions of the largest earthquakes indicate normal faulting, which agree with the regional stress field. The earthquake swarm occurs 75 km NW of Harrat Lunayyir. However, the area of interest doesn't seem to be associated with the well-known volcanic area of Harrat Lunayyir, which experienced a magmatic dike intrusion in 2009 with intense seismic activity (including a surface rupturing Mw 5.7 earthquake). Furthermore, the study area is characterized by a complex shear system, which host gold mineralization. Therefore, the exact origin of the swarm sequence is enigmatic as it's the first of its kind in this region. By using continuous seismological data recorded by the Saudi Geological Survey (SGS) that operates three permanent seismic stations and a temporary network of 11 broadband sensors, we analyze the seismic patterns in space and time. For the verified detected events, we assemble the body wave arrival times that are inverted for the velocity structures along with events hypocenters to investigate possible causes of this swarm sequence, that is, whether the activity is of tectonic- or hydro-thermal origin.

Earthquake hazard assessment and small earthquakes

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Reiter, L.

1987-01-01

The significance of small earthquakes and their treatment in nuclear power plant seismic hazard assessment is an issue which has received increased attention over the past few years. In probabilistic studies, sensitivity studies showed that the choice of the lower bound magnitude used in hazard calculations can have a larger than expected effect on the calculated hazard. Of particular interest is the fact that some of the difference in seismic hazard calculations between the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) and Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI) studies can be attributed to this choice. The LLNL study assumed a lower bound magnitude of 3.75 while the EPRI study assumed a lower bound magnitude of 5.0. The magnitudes used were assumed to be body wave magnitudes or their equivalents. In deterministic studies recent ground motion recordings of small to moderate earthquakes at or near nuclear power plants have shown that the high frequencies of design response spectra may be exceeded. These exceedances became important issues in the licensing of the Summer and Perry nuclear power plants. At various times in the past particular concerns have been raised with respect to the hazard and damage potential of small to moderate earthquakes occurring at very shallow depths. In this paper a closer look is taken at these issues. Emphasis is given to the impact of lower bound magnitude on probabilistic hazard calculations and the historical record of damage from small to moderate earthquakes. Limited recommendations are made as to how these issues should be viewed

Extreme value distribution of earthquake magnitude

Science.gov (United States)

Zi, Jun Gan; Tung, C. C.

1983-07-01

Probability distribution of maximum earthquake magnitude is first derived for an unspecified probability distribution of earthquake magnitude. A model for energy release of large earthquakes, similar to that of Adler-Lomnitz and Lomnitz, is introduced from which the probability distribution of earthquake magnitude is obtained. An extensive set of world data for shallow earthquakes, covering the period from 1904 to 1980, is used to determine the parameters of the probability distribution of maximum earthquake magnitude. Because of the special form of probability distribution of earthquake magnitude, a simple iterative scheme is devised to facilitate the estimation of these parameters by the method of least-squares. The agreement between the empirical and derived probability distributions of maximum earthquake magnitude is excellent.

Historic Eastern Canadian earthquakes

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Asmis, G.J.K.; Atchinson, R.J.

1981-01-01

Nuclear power plants licensed in Canada have been designed to resist earthquakes: not all plants, however, have been explicitly designed to the same level of earthquake induced forces. Understanding the nature of strong ground motion near the source of the earthquake is still very tentative. This paper reviews historical and scientific accounts of the three strongest earthquakes - St. Lawrence (1925), Temiskaming (1935), Cornwall (1944) - that have occurred in Canada in 'modern' times, field studies of near-field strong ground motion records and their resultant damage or non-damage to industrial facilities, and numerical modelling of earthquake sources and resultant wave propagation to produce accelerograms consistent with the above historical record and field studies. It is concluded that for future construction of NPP's near-field strong motion must be explicitly considered in design

An Earthquake Swarm Search Implemented at Major Convergent Margins to Test for Associated Aseismic Slip

Science.gov (United States)

Holtkamp, S. G.; Pritchard, M. E.; Lohman, R. B.; Brudzinski, M. R.

2009-12-01

Recent geodetic analysis indicates earthquake swarms may be associated with slow slip such that earthquakes may only represent a fraction of the moment release. To investigate this potential relationship, we have developed a manual search approach to identify earthquake swarms from a seismicity catalog. Our technique is designed to be insensitive to spatial and temporal scales and the total number of events, as seismicity rates vary in different fault zones. Our first application of this technique on globally recorded earthquakes in South America detects 35 possible swarms of varying spatial scale, with 18 in the megathrust region and 8 along the volcanic arc. Three swarms in the vicinity of the arc appear to be triggered by the Mw=8.5 2001 Peru earthquake, and are examined for possible triggering mechanisms. Coulomb stress modeling suggests that static stress changes due to the earthquake are insufficient to trigger activity, so a dynamic or secondary triggering mechanism is more likely. Volcanic swarms are often associated with ground deformation, either associated with fluid movement (e.g. dike intrusion or chamber inflation or deflation) or fault movement, although these processes are sometimes difficult to differentiate. The only swarm along the arc with sufficient geodetic data that we can process and model is near Ticsani Volcano in Peru. In this case, a swarm of events southeast of the volcano precedes a more typical earthquake sequence beneath the volcano, and evidence for deformation is found in the location of the swarm, but there is no evidence for aseismic slip. Rather, we favor a model where the swarm is associated with deflation of a magma body to the southeast that triggered the earthquake sequence by promoting movement on a fault beneath Ticsani. Since swarms on the subduction interface may indicate aseismic moment release, with a direct impact on hazard, we examine potential relations between swarms and megathrust ruptures. We find evidence that

Characterizing potentially induced earthquake rate changes in the Brawley Seismic Zone, southern California

Science.gov (United States)

Llenos, Andrea L.; Michael, Andrew J.

2016-01-01

The Brawley seismic zone (BSZ), in the Salton trough of southern California, has a history of earthquake swarms and geothermal energy exploitation. Some earthquake rate changes may have been induced by fluid extraction and injection activity at local geothermal fields, particularly at the North Brawley Geothermal Field (NBGF) and at the Salton Sea Geothermal Field (SSGF). We explore this issue by examining earthquake rate changes and interevent distance distributions in these fields. In Oklahoma and Arkansas, where considerable wastewater injection occurs, increases in background seismicity rate and aftershock productivity and decreases in interevent distance were indicative of fluid‐injection‐induced seismicity. Here, we test if similar changes occur that may be associated with fluid injection and extraction in geothermal areas. We use stochastic epidemic‐type aftershock sequence models to detect changes in the underlying seismogenic processes, shown by statistically significant changes in the model parameters. The most robust model changes in the SSGF roughly occur when large changes in net fluid production occur, but a similar correlation is not seen in the NBGF. Also, although both background seismicity rate and aftershock productivity increased for fluid‐injection‐induced earthquake rate changes in Oklahoma and Arkansas, the background rate increases significantly in the BSZ only, roughly corresponding with net fluid production rate increases. Moreover, in both fields the interevent spacing does not change significantly during active energy projects. This suggests that, although geothermal field activities in a tectonically active region may not significantly change the physics of earthquake interactions, earthquake rates may still be driven by fluid injection or extraction rates, particularly in the SSGF.

The 2012 Mw 8.6 Wharton Basin sequence: A cascade of great earthquakes generated by near-orthogonal, young, oceanic mantle faults

Science.gov (United States)

Hill, Emma M.; Yue, Han; Barbot, Sylvain; Lay, Thorne; Tapponnier, Paul; Hermawan, Iwan; Hubbard, Judith; Banerjee, Paramesh; Feng, Lujia; Natawidjaja, Danny; Sieh, Kerry

2015-05-01

We improve constraints on the slip distribution and geometry of faults involved in the complex, multisegment, Mw 8.6 April 2012 Wharton Basin earthquake sequence by joint inversion of high-rate GPS data from the Sumatran GPS Array (SuGAr), teleseismic observations, source time functions from broadband surface waves, and far-field static GPS displacements. This sequence occurred under the Indian Ocean, ˜400 km offshore Sumatra. The events are extraordinary for their unprecedented rupture of multiple cross faults, deep slip, large strike-slip magnitude, and potential role in the formation of a discrete plate boundary between the Indian and Australian plates. The SuGAr recorded static displacements of up to ˜22 cm, along with time-varying arrivals from the complex faulting, which indicate that the majority of moment release was on young, WNW trending, right-lateral faults, counter to initial expectations that an old, lithospheric, NNE trending fracture zone played the primary role. The new faults are optimally oriented to accommodate the present-day stress field. Not only was the greatest moment released on the younger faults, but it was these that sustained very deep slip and high stress drop (>20 MPa). The rupture may have extended to depths of up to 60 km, suggesting that the oceanic lithosphere in the northern Wharton Basin may be cold and strong enough to sustain brittle failure at such depths. Alternatively, the rupture may have occurred with an alternative weakening mechanism, such as thermal runaway.

Earthquakes: hydrogeochemical precursors

Science.gov (United States)

Ingebritsen, Steven E.; Manga, Michael

2014-01-01

Earthquake prediction is a long-sought goal. Changes in groundwater chemistry before earthquakes in Iceland highlight a potential hydrogeochemical precursor, but such signals must be evaluated in the context of long-term, multiparametric data sets.

Children's Ideas about Earthquakes

Science.gov (United States)

Simsek, Canan Lacin

2007-01-01

Earthquake, a natural disaster, is among the fundamental problems of many countries. If people know how to protect themselves from earthquake and arrange their life styles in compliance with this, damage they will suffer will reduce to that extent. In particular, a good training regarding earthquake to be received in primary schools is considered…

Excel, Earthquakes, and Moneyball: exploring Cascadia earthquake probabilities using spreadsheets and baseball analogies

Science.gov (United States)

Campbell, M. R.; Salditch, L.; Brooks, E. M.; Stein, S.; Spencer, B. D.

2017-12-01

Much recent media attention focuses on Cascadia's earthquake hazard. A widely cited magazine article starts "An earthquake will destroy a sizable portion of the coastal Northwest. The question is when." Stories include statements like "a massive earthquake is overdue", "in the next 50 years, there is a 1-in-10 chance a "really big one" will erupt," or "the odds of the big Cascadia earthquake happening in the next fifty years are roughly one in three." These lead students to ask where the quoted probabilities come from and what they mean. These probability estimates involve two primary choices: what data are used to describe when past earthquakes happened and what models are used to forecast when future earthquakes will happen. The data come from a 10,000-year record of large paleoearthquakes compiled from subsidence data on land and turbidites, offshore deposits recording submarine slope failure. Earthquakes seem to have happened in clusters of four or five events, separated by gaps. Earthquakes within a cluster occur more frequently and regularly than in the full record. Hence the next earthquake is more likely if we assume that we are in the recent cluster that started about 1700 years ago, than if we assume the cluster is over. Students can explore how changing assumptions drastically changes probability estimates using easy-to-write and display spreadsheets, like those shown below. Insight can also come from baseball analogies. The cluster issue is like deciding whether to assume that a hitter's performance in the next game is better described by his lifetime record, or by the past few games, since he may be hitting unusually well or in a slump. The other big choice is whether to assume that the probability of an earthquake is constant with time, or is small immediately after one occurs and then grows with time. This is like whether to assume that a player's performance is the same from year to year, or changes over their career. Thus saying "the chance of

Do Earthquakes Shake Stock Markets?

Science.gov (United States)

Ferreira, Susana; Karali, Berna

2015-01-01

This paper examines how major earthquakes affected the returns and volatility of aggregate stock market indices in thirty-five financial markets over the last twenty years. Results show that global financial markets are resilient to shocks caused by earthquakes even if these are domestic. Our analysis reveals that, in a few instances, some macroeconomic variables and earthquake characteristics (gross domestic product per capita, trade openness, bilateral trade flows, earthquake magnitude, a tsunami indicator, distance to the epicenter, and number of fatalities) mediate the impact of earthquakes on stock market returns, resulting in a zero net effect. However, the influence of these variables is market-specific, indicating no systematic pattern across global capital markets. Results also demonstrate that stock market volatility is unaffected by earthquakes, except for Japan.

Toward real-time regional earthquake simulation II: Real-time Online earthquake Simulation (ROS) of Taiwan earthquakes

Science.gov (United States)

Lee, Shiann-Jong; Liu, Qinya; Tromp, Jeroen; Komatitsch, Dimitri; Liang, Wen-Tzong; Huang, Bor-Shouh

2014-06-01

We developed a Real-time Online earthquake Simulation system (ROS) to simulate regional earthquakes in Taiwan. The ROS uses a centroid moment tensor solution of seismic events from a Real-time Moment Tensor monitoring system (RMT), which provides all the point source parameters including the event origin time, hypocentral location, moment magnitude and focal mechanism within 2 min after the occurrence of an earthquake. Then, all of the source parameters are automatically forwarded to the ROS to perform an earthquake simulation, which is based on a spectral-element method (SEM). A new island-wide, high resolution SEM mesh model is developed for the whole Taiwan in this study. We have improved SEM mesh quality by introducing a thin high-resolution mesh layer near the surface to accommodate steep and rapidly varying topography. The mesh for the shallow sedimentary basin is adjusted to reflect its complex geometry and sharp lateral velocity contrasts. The grid resolution at the surface is about 545 m, which is sufficient to resolve topography and tomography data for simulations accurate up to 1.0 Hz. The ROS is also an infrastructural service, making online earthquake simulation feasible. Users can conduct their own earthquake simulation by providing a set of source parameters through the ROS webpage. For visualization, a ShakeMovie and ShakeMap are produced during the simulation. The time needed for one event is roughly 3 min for a 70 s ground motion simulation. The ROS is operated online at the Institute of Earth Sciences, Academia Sinica (http://ros.earth.sinica.edu.tw/). Our long-term goal for the ROS system is to contribute to public earth science outreach and to realize seismic ground motion prediction in real-time.

Sedimentary records of past earthquakes in Boraboy Lake during the last ca 600 years (North Anatolian Fault, Turkey)

KAUST Repository

Avsar, Ulas

2015-05-21

Multiproxy sedimentological analyses along 4.9 m-long sequence of Boraboy Lake, which is located on the central eastern part of the North Anatolian Fault (NAF), reveal the sedimentary traces of past large earthquakes in the region. The lake has a relatively large catchment area (10 km2) compared to its size (0.12 km2), which renders sedimentation sensitive to heavy rain/storm events. Accordingly, the background sedimentation, which is composed of faintly laminated reddish/yellowish brown clayey silt, is frequently interrupted by organic-rich intercalations probably due to heavy rain/storm events transporting terrestrial plant remains from the densely vegetated catchment. In addition to frequent organic-rich intercalations, the background sedimentation is interrupted by four mass-wasting deposits (MWD) of which thickness range between 15 and 50 cm. High-resolution ITRAX μXRF data confirms higher homogeneity along the MWDs (E1-E4) compared to the background sedimentation. Based on 137Cs and 210Pbxs dating and radiocarbon chronology, three MWDs detected in Boraboy sequence (E2, E3 and E4) temporally correlate with large historical earthquakes along the NAF; the 1943 Tosya (Ms= 7.6) and/or 1942 Niksar-Erbaa (Ms= 7.1), the 1776 Amasya-Merzifon and the 1668 North Anatolian (Ms= 7.9) earthquakes. The youngest MWD in the sequence (E1), which is dated to early 2000s, does not correlate with any strong earthquake in the region. This MWD was probably a single mass-wasting event due to routine overloading and oversteepening on the delta front formed by the main inlet of the lake. In subaqueous paleoseismology, coevality of multi-location mass-wasting events is used as a criterion to assign a seismic triggering mechanism, and to rule out mass-wasting events due to routine overloading/oversteepening of subaqueous slopes. Within this context, Boraboy sequence provides a valuable example to discuss sedimentological imprints of single- vs. multi-source MWDs.

Sedimentary Signatures of Submarine Earthquakes: Deciphering the Extent of Sediment Remobilization from the 2011 Tohoku Earthquake and Tsunami and 2010 Haiti Earthquake

Science.gov (United States)

McHugh, C. M.; Seeber, L.; Moernaut, J.; Strasser, M.; Kanamatsu, T.; Ikehara, K.; Bopp, R.; Mustaque, S.; Usami, K.; Schwestermann, T.; Kioka, A.; Moore, L. M.

2017-12-01

The 2004 Sumatra-Andaman Mw9.3 and the 2011 Tohoku (Japan) Mw9.0 earthquakes and tsunamis were huge geological events with major societal consequences. Both were along subduction boundaries and ruptured portions of these boundaries that had been deemed incapable of such events. Submarine strike-slip earthquakes, such as the 2010 Mw7.0 in Haiti, are smaller but may be closer to population centers and can be similarly catastrophic. Both classes of earthquakes remobilize sediment and leave distinct signatures in the geologic record by a wide range of processes that depends on both environment and earthquake characteristics. Understanding them has the potential of greatly expanding the record of past earthquakes, which is critical for geohazard analysis. Recent events offer precious ground truth about the earthquakes and short-lived radioisotopes offer invaluable tools to identify sediments they remobilized. In the 2011 Mw9 Japan earthquake they document the spatial extent of remobilized sediment from water depths of 626m in the forearc slope to trench depths of 8000m. Subbottom profiles, multibeam bathymetry and 40 piston cores collected by the R/V Natsushima and R/V Sonne expeditions to the Japan Trench document multiple turbidites and high-density flows. Core tops enriched in xs210Pb,137Cs and 134Cs reveal sediment deposited by the 2011 Tohoku earthquake and tsunami. The thickest deposits (2m) were documented on a mid-slope terrace and trench (4000-8000m). Sediment was deposited on some terraces (600-3000m), but shed from the steep forearc slope (3000-4000m). The 2010 Haiti mainshock ruptured along the southern flank of Canal du Sud and triggered multiple nearshore sediment failures, generated turbidity currents and stirred fine sediment into suspension throughout this basin. A tsunami was modeled to stem from both sediment failures and tectonics. Remobilized sediment was tracked with short-lived radioisotopes from the nearshore, slope, in fault basins including the

Analysis of pre-earthquake ionospheric anomalies before the global M = 7.0+ earthquakes in 2010

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W. F. Peng

2012-03-01

Full Text Available The pre-earthquake ionospheric anomalies that occurred before the global M = 7.0+ earthquakes in 2010 are investigated using the total electron content (TEC from the global ionosphere map (GIM. We analyze the possible causes of the ionospheric anomalies based on the space environment and magnetic field status. Results show that some anomalies are related to the earthquakes. By analyzing the time of occurrence, duration, and spatial distribution of these ionospheric anomalies, a number of new conclusions are drawn, as follows: earthquake-related ionospheric anomalies are not bound to appear; both positive and negative anomalies are likely to occur; and the earthquake-related ionospheric anomalies discussed in the current study occurred 0–2 days before the associated earthquakes and in the afternoon to sunset (i.e. between 12:00 and 20:00 local time. Pre-earthquake ionospheric anomalies occur mainly in areas near the epicenter. However, the maximum affected area in the ionosphere does not coincide with the vertical projection of the epicenter of the subsequent earthquake. The directions deviating from the epicenters do not follow a fixed rule. The corresponding ionospheric effects can also be observed in the magnetically conjugated region. However, the probability of the anomalies appearance and extent of the anomalies in the magnetically conjugated region are smaller than the anomalies near the epicenter. Deep-focus earthquakes may also exhibit very significant pre-earthquake ionospheric anomalies.

Typhoon-driven landsliding induces earthquakes: example of the 2009 Morakot typhoon

Science.gov (United States)

Steer, Philippe; Jeandet, Louise; Cubas, Nadaya; Marc, Odin; Meunier, Patrick; Hovius, Niels; Simoes, Martine; Cattin, Rodolphe; Shyu, J. Bruce H.; Liang, Wen-Tzong; Theunissen, Thomas; Chiang, Shou-Hao

2017-04-01

Extreme rainfall events can trigger numerous landslides in mountainous areas and a prolonged increase of river sediment load. The resulting mass transfer at the Earth surface in turn induces stress changes at depth, which could be sufficient to trigger shallow earthquakes. The 2009 Morakot typhoon represents a good case study as it delivered 3 m of precipitation in 3 days and caused some of the most intense erosion ever recorded. Analysis of seismicity time-series before and after the Morakot typhoon reveals a systematic increase of shallow (i.e. 0-15 km of depth) earthquake frequency in the vicinity of the areas displaying a high spatial density of landslides. This step-like increase in frequency lasts for at least 2-3 years and does not follow an Omori-type aftershock sequence. Rather, it is associated to a step change of the Gutenberg-Richter b-value of the earthquake catalog. Both changes occurred in mountainous areas of southwest Taiwan, where typhoon Morakot caused extensive landsliding. These spatial and temporal correlations strongly suggest a causal relationship between the Morakot-triggered landslides and the increase of earthquake frequency and their associated b-value. We propose that the progressive removal of landslide materials from the steep mountain landscape by river sediment transport acts as an approximately constant increase of the stress rate with respect to pre-typhoon conditions, and that this in turn causes a step-wise increase in earthquake frequency. To test this hypothesis, we investigate the response of a rate-and-state fault to stress changes using a 2-D continuum elasto-dynamic model. Consistent with the results of Ader et al. (2013), our preliminary results show a step-like increase of earthquake frequency in response to a step-like decrease of the fault normal stress. We also investigate the sensitivity of the amplitude and time-scale of the earthquake frequency increase to the amplitude of the normal stress change and to

Earthquake Hazard for Aswan High Dam Area

Science.gov (United States)

Ismail, Awad

2016-04-01

Earthquake activity and seismic hazard analysis are important components of the seismic aspects for very essential structures such as major dams. The Aswan High Dam (AHD) created the second man-made reservoir in the world (Lake Nasser) and is constructed near urban areas pose a high-risk potential for downstream life and property. The Dam area is one of the seismically active regions in Egypt and is occupied with several cross faults, which are dominant in the east-west and north-south. Epicenters were found to cluster around active faults in the northern part of Lake and AHD location. The space-time distribution and the relation of the seismicity with the lake water level fluctuations were studied. The Aswan seismicity separates into shallow and deep seismic zones, between 0 and 14 and 14 and 30 km, respectively. These two seismic zones behave differently over time, as indicated by the seismicity rate, lateral extent, b-value, and spatial clustering. It is characterized by earthquake swarm sequences showing activation of the clustering-events over time and space. The effect of the North African drought (1982 to present) is clearly seen in the reservoir water level. As it decreased and left the most active fault segments uncovered, the shallow activity was found to be more sensitive to rapid discharging than to the filling. This study indicates that geology, topography, lineations in seismicity, offsets in the faults, changes in fault trends and focal mechanisms are closely related. No relation was found between earthquake activity and both-ground water table fluctuations and water temperatures measured in wells located around the Kalabsha area. The peak ground acceleration is estimated in the dam site based on strong ground motion simulation. This seismic hazard analyses have indicated that AHD is stable with the present seismicity. The earthquake epicenters have recently took place approximately 5 km west of the AHD structure. This suggests that AHD dam must be

THE RESPONSE OF MONTEREY BAY TO THE 2010 CHILEAN EARTHQUAKE

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Laurence C. Breaker

2011-01-01

Full Text Available The primary frequencies contained in the arrival sequence produced by the tsunami from the Chilean earthquake of 2010 in Monterey Bay were extracted to determine the seiche modes that were produced. Singular Spectrum Analysis (SSA and Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition (EEMD were employed to extract the primary frequencies of interest. The wave train from the Chilean tsunami lasted for at least four days due to multipath arrivals that may not have included reflections from outside the bay but most likely did include secondary undulations, and energy trapping in the form of edge waves, inside the bay. The SSA decomposition resolved oscillations with periods of 52-57, 34-35, 26-27, and 21-22 minutes, all frequencies that have been predicted and/or observed in previous studies. The EEMD decomposition detected oscillations with periods of 50-55 and 21-22 minutes. Periods in the range of 50-57 minutes varied due to measurement uncertainties but almost certainly correspond to the first longitudinal mode of oscillation for Monterey Bay, periods of 34-35 minutes correspond to the first transverse mode of oscillation that assumes a nodal line across the entrance of the bay, a period of 26- 27 minutes, although previously observed, may not represent a fundamental oscillation, and a period of 21-22 minutes has been predicted and observed previously. A period of ~37 minutes, close to the period of 34-35 minutes, was generated by the Great Alaskan Earthquake of 1964 in Monterey Bay and most likely represents the same mode of oscillation. The tsunamis associated with the Great Alaskan Earthquake and the Chilean Earthquake both entered Monterey Bay but initially arrived outside the bay from opposite directions. Unlike the Great Alaskan Earthquake, however, which excited only one resonant mode inside the bay, the Chilean Earthquake excited several modes suggesting that the asymmetric shape of the entrance to Monterey Bay was an important factor and that the

A Seismological Portrait of the Anomalous 1996 Bardarbunga Volcano, Iceland, Earthquake (Invited)

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Tkalcic, H.; Dreger, D. S.; Foulger, G. R.; Julian, B. R.; Fichtner, A.

2009-12-01

The Bardarbunga volcano lies beneath the 500-m-thick Vatnajokull icecap, the largest glacier in Europe. Earthquakes with atypical seismic radiation have occurred beneath the Bardarbunga caldera and have been routinely reported in the Global CMT catalog. An earthquake with Mw 5.6 and a strong non-double-couple (NDC) radiation pattern occurred beneath the caldera on 29 September, 1996. A peculiarity of that earthquake was that it was the first in a sequence of seismic and magmatic events and that it was followed, not preceded or accompanied, by a major eruption which ultimately led to a breakout flood from the subglacial caldera lake. The earthquake was recorded well by the regional-scale Iceland Hotspot Project seismic experiment. One of the proposed hypotheses to explain the observed displacements and the sequence of events was the inflation of a shallow magma chamber that might have caused rupture on ring faults below the chamber. Iceland has a heterogeneous crust, with variable thickness, and thus a 1D structural model is not ideal for waveform modeling. We investigated the earthquake with a point-source complete moment-tensor (MT) inversion method using regional long-period seismic waveforms and a composite structural model of Iceland based on joint modeling of teleseismic receiver functions and surface-wave dispersion. When such a model is used, the waveform modeling yields a NDC solution with a strong, vertically oriented compensated linear vector dipole component and a statistically insignificant volumetric contraction. The absence of a volumetric component is surprising in the case of a large volcanic earthquake that cannot be explained by shear slip on a planar fault. A possible mechanism that can produce an earthquake without a volumetric component involves two offset sources with similar but opposite volume changes. We show that although such a model cannot be ruled out, it is unlikely. In order to investigate the hypothesis of a rupture occurring on a

Countermeasures to earthquakes in nuclear plants

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sato, Kazuhide

1979-01-01

The contribution of atomic energy to mankind is unmeasured, but the danger of radioactivity is a special thing. Therefore in the design of nuclear power plants, the safety has been regarded as important, and in Japan where earthquakes occur frequently, the countermeasures to earthquakes have been incorporated in the examination of safety naturally. The radioactive substances handled in nuclear power stations and spent fuel reprocessing plants are briefly explained. The occurrence of earthquakes cannot be predicted effectively, and the disaster due to earthquakes is apt to be remarkably large. In nuclear plants, the prevention of damage in the facilities and the maintenance of the functions are required at the time of earthquakes. Regarding the location of nuclear plants, the history of earthquakes, the possible magnitude of earthquakes, the properties of ground and the position of nuclear plants should be examined. After the place of installation has been decided, the earthquake used for design is selected, evaluating live faults and determining the standard earthquakes. As the fundamentals of aseismatic design, the classification according to importance, the earthquakes for design corresponding to the classes of importance, the combination of loads and allowable stress are explained. (Kako, I.)

Seismic wave triggering of nonvolcanic tremor, episodic tremor and slip, and earthquakes on Vancouver Island

Science.gov (United States)

Rubinstein, Justin L.; Gomberg, Joan; Vidale, John E.; Wech, Aaron G.; Kao, Honn; Creager, Kenneth C.; Rogers, Garry

2009-02-01

We explore the physical conditions that enable triggering of nonvolcanic tremor and earthquakes by considering local seismic activity on Vancouver Island, British Columbia during and immediately after the arrival of large-amplitude seismic waves from 30 teleseismic and 17 regional or local earthquakes. We identify tremor triggered by four of the teleseismic earthquakes. The close temporal and spatial proximity of triggered tremor to ambient tremor and aseismic slip indicates that when a fault is close to or undergoing failure, it is particularly susceptible to triggering of further events. The amplitude of the triggering waves also influences the likelihood of triggering both tremor and earthquakes such that large amplitude waves triggered tremor in the absence of detectable aseismic slip or ambient tremor. Tremor and energy radiated from regional/local earthquakes share the same frequency passband so that tremor cannot be identified during these smaller, more frequent events. We confidently identify triggered local earthquakes following only one teleseism, that with the largest amplitude, and four regional or local events that generated vigorous aftershock sequences in their immediate vicinity. Earthquakes tend to be triggered in regions different from tremor and with high ambient seismicity rates. We also note an interesting possible correlation between large teleseismic events and episodic tremor and slip (ETS) episodes, whereby ETS events that are "late" and have built up more stress than normal are susceptible to triggering by the slight nudge of the shaking from a large, distant event, while ETS events that are "early" or "on time" are not.

The failure of earthquake failure models

Science.gov (United States)

Gomberg, J.

2001-01-01

In this study I show that simple heuristic models and numerical calculations suggest that an entire class of commonly invoked models of earthquake failure processes cannot explain triggering of seismicity by transient or "dynamic" stress changes, such as stress changes associated with passing seismic waves. The models of this class have the common feature that the physical property characterizing failure increases at an accelerating rate when a fault is loaded (stressed) at a constant rate. Examples include models that invoke rate state friction or subcritical crack growth, in which the properties characterizing failure are slip or crack length, respectively. Failure occurs when the rate at which these grow accelerates to values exceeding some critical threshold. These accelerating failure models do not predict the finite durations of dynamically triggered earthquake sequences (e.g., at aftershock or remote distances). Some of the failure models belonging to this class have been used to explain static stress triggering of aftershocks. This may imply that the physical processes underlying dynamic triggering differs or that currently applied models of static triggering require modification. If the former is the case, we might appeal to physical mechanisms relying on oscillatory deformations such as compaction of saturated fault gouge leading to pore pressure increase, or cyclic fatigue. However, if dynamic and static triggering mechanisms differ, one still needs to ask why static triggering models that neglect these dynamic mechanisms appear to explain many observations. If the static and dynamic triggering mechanisms are the same, perhaps assumptions about accelerating failure and/or that triggering advances the failure times of a population of inevitable earthquakes are incorrect.

Earthquake precursors: spatial-temporal gravity changes before the great earthquakes in the Sichuan-Yunnan area

Science.gov (United States)

Zhu, Yi-Qing; Liang, Wei-Feng; Zhang, Song

2018-01-01

Using multiple-scale mobile gravity data in the Sichuan-Yunnan area, we systematically analyzed the relationships between spatial-temporal gravity changes and the 2014 Ludian, Yunnan Province Ms6.5 earthquake and the 2014 Kangding Ms6.3, 2013 Lushan Ms7.0, and 2008 Wenchuan Ms8.0 earthquakes in Sichuan Province. Our main results are as follows. (1) Before the occurrence of large earthquakes, gravity anomalies occur in a large area around the epicenters. The directions of gravity change gradient belts usually agree roughly with the directions of the main fault zones of the study area. Such gravity changes might reflect the increase of crustal stress, as well as the significant active tectonic movements and surface deformations along fault zones, during the period of gestation of great earthquakes. (2) Continuous significant changes of the multiple-scale gravity fields, as well as greater gravity changes with larger time scales, can be regarded as medium-range precursors of large earthquakes. The subsequent large earthquakes always occur in the area where the gravity changes greatly. (3) The spatial-temporal gravity changes are very useful in determining the epicenter of coming large earthquakes. The large gravity networks are useful to determine the general areas of coming large earthquakes. However, the local gravity networks with high spatial-temporal resolution are suitable for determining the location of epicenters. Therefore, denser gravity observation networks are necessary for better forecasts of the epicenters of large earthquakes. (4) Using gravity changes from mobile observation data, we made medium-range forecasts of the Kangding, Ludian, Lushan, and Wenchuan earthquakes, with especially successful forecasts of the location of their epicenters. Based on the above discussions, we emphasize that medium-/long-term potential for large earthquakes might exist nowadays in some areas with significant gravity anomalies in the study region. Thus, the monitoring

Overestimation of the earthquake hazard along the Himalaya: constraints in bracketing of medieval earthquakes from paleoseismic studies

Science.gov (United States)

Arora, Shreya; Malik, Javed N.

2017-12-01

The Himalaya is one of the most seismically active regions of the world. The occurrence of several large magnitude earthquakes viz. 1905 Kangra earthquake (Mw 7.8), 1934 Bihar-Nepal earthquake (Mw 8.2), 1950 Assam earthquake (Mw 8.4), 2005 Kashmir (Mw 7.6), and 2015 Gorkha (Mw 7.8) are the testimony to ongoing tectonic activity. In the last few decades, tremendous efforts have been made along the Himalayan arc to understand the patterns of earthquake occurrences, size, extent, and return periods. Some of the large magnitude earthquakes produced surface rupture, while some remained blind. Furthermore, due to the incompleteness of the earthquake catalogue, a very few events can be correlated with medieval earthquakes. Based on the existing paleoseismic data certainly, there exists a complexity to precisely determine the extent of surface rupture of these earthquakes and also for those events, which occurred during historic times. In this paper, we have compiled the paleo-seismological data and recalibrated the radiocarbon ages from the trenches excavated by previous workers along the entire Himalaya and compared earthquake scenario with the past. Our studies suggest that there were multiple earthquake events with overlapping surface ruptures in small patches with an average rupture length of 300 km limiting Mw 7.8-8.0 for the Himalayan arc, rather than two or three giant earthquakes rupturing the whole front. It has been identified that the large magnitude Himalayan earthquakes, such as 1905 Kangra, 1934 Bihar-Nepal, and 1950 Assam, that have occurred within a time frame of 45 years. Now, if these events are dated, there is a high possibility that within the range of ±50 years, they may be considered as the remnant of one giant earthquake rupturing the entire Himalayan arc. Therefore, leading to an overestimation of seismic hazard scenario in Himalaya.

The earthquake sequence of 21-22 February, 1983 at Ramnicu Sarat, Romania: source parameters retrieved by short period local data inversion

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ardeleanu, L.; Radulian, M.; Sileny, J.; Panza, G. F.

2002-01-01

High-frequency seismograms from the Romanian telemetered local network are inverted to retrieve the seismic moment tensor of five weak earthquakes (2.9 ≤ M L ≤ 3.6) belonging to the seismic sequence of Ramnicu Sarat (Romania) of 21-22 February 1983. A grossly simplified 1-D approximation of the crust - the horizontally layered inelastic earth model - is used to construct the Green's function by modal summation. The deviation from the real velocity structure originates the error in forward modelling, which is roughly estimated from the differences in the moment tensor rate functions obtained from subsets of the complete station network. This error is transformed into estimates of confidence regions of the time function, moment tensor and its principal axes, and error bars of the scalar moment. The 1-D approximation of the crust results in a large uncertainty of the source time function, which is almost completely undetermined. The mechanism is more confident, especially the determination of the orientation of its deviatoric part. The most robust source parameter from the three investigated items is the scalar moment. (authors)

Stochastic strong motion generation using slip model of 21 and 22 May 1960 mega-thrust earthquakes in the main cities of Central-South Chile

Science.gov (United States)

Ruiz, S.; Ojeda, J.; DelCampo, F., Sr.; Pasten, C., Sr.; Otarola, C., Sr.; Silva, R., Sr.

2017-12-01

In May 1960 took place the most unusual seismic sequence registered instrumentally. The Mw 8.1, Concepción earthquake occurred May, 21, 1960. The aftershocks of this event apparently migrated to the south-east, and the Mw 9.5, Valdivia mega-earthquake occurred after 33 hours. The structural damage produced by both events is not larger than other earthquakes in Chile and lower than crustal earthquakes of smaller magnitude. The damage was located in the sites with shallow soil layers of low shear wave velocity (Vs). However, no seismological station recorded this sequence. For that reason, we generate synthetic acceleration times histories for strong motion in the main cities affected by these events. We use 155 points of vertical surface displacements recopiled by Plafker and Savage in 1968, and considering the observations of this authors and local residents we separated the uplift and subsidence information associated to the first earthquake Mw 8.1 and the second mega-earthquake Mw 9.5. We consider the elastic deformation propagation, assume realist lithosphere geometry, and compute a Bayesian method that maximizes the probability density a posteriori to obtain the slip distribution. Subsequently, we use a stochastic method of generation of strong motion considering the finite fault model obtained for both earthquakes. We considered the incidence angle of ray to the surface, free surface effect and energy partition for P, SV and SH waves, dynamic corner frequency and the influence of site effect. The results show that the earthquake Mw 8.1 occurred down-dip the slab, the strong motion records are similar to other Chilean earthquake like Tocopilla Mw 7.7 (2007). For the Mw 9.5 earthquake we obtain synthetic acceleration time histories with PGA values around 0.8 g in cities near to the maximum asperity or that have low velocity soil layers. This allows us to conclude that strong motion records have important influence of the shallow soil deposits. These records

Earthquake Directivity, Orientation, and Stress Drop Within the Subducting Plate at the Hikurangi Margin, New Zealand

Science.gov (United States)

Abercrombie, Rachel E.; Poli, Piero; Bannister, Stephen

2017-12-01

We develop an approach to calculate earthquake source directivity and rupture velocity for small earthquakes, using the whole source time function rather than just an estimate of the duration. We apply the method to an aftershock sequence within the subducting plate beneath North Island, New Zealand, and investigate its resolution. We use closely located, highly correlated empirical Green's function (EGF) events to obtain source time functions (STFs) for this well-recorded sequence. We stack the STFs from multiple EGFs at each station, to improve the stability of the STFs. Eleven earthquakes (M 3.3-4.5) have sufficient azimuthal coverage, and both P and S STFs, to investigate directivity. The time axis of each STF in turn is stretched to find the maximum correlation between all pairs of stations. We then invert for the orientation and rupture velocity of both unilateral and bilateral line sources that best match the observations. We determine whether they are distinguishable and investigate the effects of limited frequency bandwidth. Rupture orientations are resolvable for eight earthquakes, seven of which are predominantly unilateral, and all are consistent with rupture on planes similar to the main shock fault plane. Purely unilateral rupture is rarely distinguishable from asymmetric bilateral rupture, despite a good station distribution. Synthetic testing shows that rupture velocity is the least well-resolved parameter; estimates decrease with loss of high-frequency energy, and measurements are best considered minimum values. We see no correlation between rupture velocity and stress drop, and spatial stress drop variation cannot be explained as an artifact of varying rupture velocity.

Stress triggering of the Lushan M7. 0 earthquake by the Wenchuan Ms8. 0 earthquake

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Wu Jianchao

2013-08-01

Full Text Available The Wenchuan Ms8. 0 earthquake and the Lushan M7. 0 earthquake occurred in the north and south segments of the Longmenshan nappe tectonic belt, respectively. Based on the focal mechanism and finite fault model of the Wenchuan Ms8. 0 earthquake, we calculated the coulomb failure stress change. The inverted coulomb stress changes based on the Nishimura and Chenji models both show that the Lushan M7. 0 earthquake occurred in the increased area of coulomb failure stress induced by the Wenchuan Ms8. 0 earthquake. The coulomb failure stress increased by approximately 0. 135 – 0. 152 bar in the source of the Lushan M7. 0 earthquake, which is far more than the stress triggering threshold. Therefore, the Lushan M7. 0 earthquake was most likely triggered by the coulomb failure stress change.

Earthquake engineering for nuclear facilities

CERN Document Server

Kuno, Michiya

2017-01-01

This book is a comprehensive compilation of earthquake- and tsunami-related technologies and knowledge for the design and construction of nuclear facilities. As such, it covers a wide range of fields including civil engineering, architecture, geotechnical engineering, mechanical engineering, and nuclear engineering, for the development of new technologies providing greater resistance against earthquakes and tsunamis. It is crucial both for students of nuclear energy courses and for young engineers in nuclear power generation industries to understand the basics and principles of earthquake- and tsunami-resistant design of nuclear facilities. In Part I, "Seismic Design of Nuclear Power Plants", the design of nuclear power plants to withstand earthquakes and tsunamis is explained, focusing on buildings, equipment's, and civil engineering structures. In Part II, "Basics of Earthquake Engineering", fundamental knowledge of earthquakes and tsunamis as well as the dynamic response of structures and foundation ground...

International Aftershock Forecasting: Lessons from the Gorkha Earthquake

Science.gov (United States)

Michael, A. J.; Blanpied, M. L.; Brady, S. R.; van der Elst, N.; Hardebeck, J.; Mayberry, G. C.; Page, M. T.; Smoczyk, G. M.; Wein, A. M.

2015-12-01

Following the M7.8 Gorhka, Nepal, earthquake of April 25, 2015 the USGS issued a series of aftershock forecasts. The initial impetus for these forecasts was a request from the USAID Office of US Foreign Disaster Assistance to support their Disaster Assistance Response Team (DART) which coordinated US Government disaster response, including search and rescue, with the Government of Nepal. Because of the possible utility of the forecasts to people in the region and other response teams, the USGS released these forecasts publicly through the USGS Earthquake Program web site. The initial forecast used the Reasenberg and Jones (Science, 1989) model with generic parameters developed for active deep continental regions based on the Garcia et al. (BSSA, 2012) tectonic regionalization. These were then updated to reflect a lower productivity and higher decay rate based on the observed aftershocks, although relying on teleseismic observations, with a high magnitude-of-completeness, limited the amount of data. After the 12 May M7.3 aftershock, the forecasts used an Epidemic Type Aftershock Sequence model to better characterize the multiple sources of earthquake clustering. This model provided better estimates of aftershock uncertainty. These forecast messages were crafted based on lessons learned from the Christchurch earthquake along with input from the U.S. Embassy staff in Kathmandu. Challenges included how to balance simple messaging with forecasts over a variety of time periods (week, month, and year), whether to characterize probabilities with words such as those suggested by the IPCC (IPCC, 2010), how to word the messages in a way that would translate accurately into Nepali and not alarm the public, and how to present the probabilities of unlikely but possible large and potentially damaging aftershocks, such as the M7.3 event, which had an estimated probability of only 1-in-200 for the week in which it occurred.

Sensing the earthquake

Science.gov (United States)

Bichisao, Marta; Stallone, Angela

2017-04-01

Making science visual plays a crucial role in the process of building knowledge. In this view, art can considerably facilitate the representation of the scientific content, by offering a different perspective on how a specific problem could be approached. Here we explore the possibility of presenting the earthquake process through visual dance. From a choreographer's point of view, the focus is always on the dynamic relationships between moving objects. The observed spatial patterns (coincidences, repetitions, double and rhythmic configurations) suggest how objects organize themselves in the environment and what are the principles underlying that organization. The identified set of rules is then implemented as a basis for the creation of a complex rhythmic and visual dance system. Recently, scientists have turned seismic waves into sound and animations, introducing the possibility of "feeling" the earthquakes. We try to implement these results into a choreographic model with the aim to convert earthquake sound to a visual dance system, which could return a transmedia representation of the earthquake process. In particular, we focus on a possible method to translate and transfer the metric language of seismic sound and animations into body language. The objective is to involve the audience into a multisensory exploration of the earthquake phenomenon, through the stimulation of the hearing, eyesight and perception of the movements (neuromotor system). In essence, the main goal of this work is to develop a method for a simultaneous visual and auditory representation of a seismic event by means of a structured choreographic model. This artistic representation could provide an original entryway into the physics of earthquakes.

Thoracic Injuries in earthquake-related versus non-earthquake-related trauma patients: differentiation via Multi-detector Computed Tomography

Science.gov (United States)

Dong, Zhi-hui; Yang, Zhi-gang; Chen, Tian-wu; Chu, Zhi-gang; Deng, Wen; Shao, Heng

2011-01-01

PURPOSE: Massive earthquakes are harmful to humankind. This study of a historical cohort aimed to investigate the difference between earthquake-related crush thoracic traumas and thoracic traumas unrelated to earthquakes using a multi-detector Computed Tomography (CT). METHODS: We retrospectively compared an earthquake-exposed cohort of 215 thoracic trauma crush victims of the Sichuan earthquake to a cohort of 215 non-earthquake-related thoracic trauma patients, focusing on the lesions and coexisting injuries to the thoracic cage and the pulmonary parenchyma and pleura using a multi-detector CT. RESULTS: The incidence of rib fracture was elevated in the earthquake-exposed cohort (143 vs. 66 patients in the non-earthquake-exposed cohort, Risk Ratio (RR) = 2.2; pchest (45/143 vs. 11/66 patients, RR = 1.9; ptraumas resulting from the earthquake were life threatening with a high incidence of bony thoracic fractures. The ribs were frequently involved in bilateral and severe types of fractures, which were accompanied by non-rib fractures, pulmonary parenchymal and pleural injuries. PMID:21789386

Foreshock patterns preceding large earthquakes in the subduction zone of Chile

Science.gov (United States)

Minadakis, George; Papadopoulos, Gerassimos A.

2016-04-01

Some of the largest earthquakes in the globe occur in the subduction zone of Chile. Therefore, it is of particular interest to investigate foreshock patterns preceding such earthquakes. Foreshocks in Chile were recognized as early as 1960. In fact, the giant (Mw9.5) earthquake of 22 May 1960, which was the largest ever instrumentally recorded, was preceded by 45 foreshocks in a time period of 33h before the mainshock, while 250 aftershocks were recorded in a 33h time period after the mainshock. Four foreshocks were bigger than magnitude 7.0, including a magnitude 7.9 on May 21 that caused severe damage in the Concepcion area. More recently, Brodsky and Lay (2014) and Bedford et al. (2015) reported on foreshock activity before the 1 April 2014 large earthquake (Mw8.2). However, 3-D foreshock patterns in space, time and size were not studied in depth so far. Since such studies require for good seismic catalogues to be available, we have investigated 3-D foreshock patterns only before the recent, very large mainshocks occurring on 27 February 2010 (Mw 8.8), 1 April 2014 (Mw8.2) and 16 September 2015 (Mw8.4). Although our analysis does not depend on a priori definition of short-term foreshocks, our interest focuses in the short-term time frame, that is in the last 5-6 months before the mainshock. The analysis of the 2014 event showed an excellent foreshock sequence consisting by an early-weak foreshock stage lasting for about 1.8 months and by a main-strong precursory foreshock stage that was evolved in the last 18 days before the mainshock. During the strong foreshock period the seismicity concentrated around the mainshock epicenter in a critical area of about 65 km mainly along the trench domain to the south of the mainshock epicenter. At the same time, the activity rate increased dramatically, the b-value dropped and the mean magnitude increased significantly, while the level of seismic energy released also increased. In view of these highly significant seismicity

Consideration for standard earthquake vibration (1). The Niigataken Chuetsu-oki Earthquake in 2007

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ishibashi, Katsuhiko

2007-01-01

Outline of new guideline of quakeproof design standard of nuclear power plant and the standard earthquake vibration are explained. The improvement points of new guideline are discussed on the basis of Kashiwazaki-Kariwa Nuclear Power Plant incidents. The fundamental limits of new guideline are pointed. Placement of the quakeproof design standard of nuclear power plant, JEAG4601 of Japan Electric Association, new guideline, standard earthquake vibration of new guideline, the Niigataken Chuetsu-oki Earthquake in 2007 and damage of Kashiwazaki-Kariwa Nuclear Power Plant are discussed. The safety criteria of safety review system, organization, standard and guideline should be improved on the basis of this earthquake and nuclear plant accident. The general knowledge, 'a nuclear power plant is not constructed in the area expected large earthquake', has to be realized. Preconditions of all nuclear power plants should not cause damage to anything. (S.Y.)

Operational Earthquake Forecasting and Decision-Making in a Low-Probability Environment

Science.gov (United States)

Jordan, T. H.; the International Commission on Earthquake ForecastingCivil Protection

2011-12-01

Operational earthquake forecasting (OEF) is the dissemination of authoritative information about the time dependence of seismic hazards to help communities prepare for potentially destructive earthquakes. Most previous work on the public utility of OEF has anticipated that forecasts would deliver high probabilities of large earthquakes; i.e., deterministic predictions with low error rates (false alarms and failures-to-predict) would be possible. This expectation has not been realized. An alternative to deterministic prediction is probabilistic forecasting based on empirical statistical models of aftershock triggering and seismic clustering. During periods of high seismic activity, short-term earthquake forecasts can attain prospective probability gains in excess of 100 relative to long-term forecasts. The utility of such information is by no means clear, however, because even with hundredfold increases, the probabilities of large earthquakes typically remain small, rarely exceeding a few percent over forecasting intervals of days or weeks. Civil protection agencies have been understandably cautious in implementing OEF in this sort of "low-probability environment." The need to move more quickly has been underscored by recent seismic crises, such as the 2009 L'Aquila earthquake sequence, in which an anxious public was confused by informal and inaccurate earthquake predictions. After the L'Aquila earthquake, the Italian Department of Civil Protection appointed an International Commission on Earthquake Forecasting (ICEF), which I chaired, to recommend guidelines for OEF utilization. Our report (Ann. Geophys., 54, 4, 2011; doi: 10.4401/ag-5350) concludes: (a) Public sources of information on short-term probabilities should be authoritative, scientific, open, and timely, and need to convey epistemic uncertainties. (b) Earthquake probabilities should be based on operationally qualified, regularly updated forecasting systems. (c) All operational models should be evaluated

Earthquake Emergency Education in Dushanbe, Tajikistan

Science.gov (United States)

Mohadjer, Solmaz; Bendick, Rebecca; Halvorson, Sarah J.; Saydullaev, Umed; Hojiboev, Orifjon; Stickler, Christine; Adam, Zachary R.

2010-01-01

We developed a middle school earthquake science and hazards curriculum to promote earthquake awareness to students in the Central Asian country of Tajikistan. These materials include pre- and post-assessment activities, six science activities describing physical processes related to earthquakes, five activities on earthquake hazards and mitigation…

Intensity earthquake scenario (scenario event - a damaging earthquake with higher probability of occurrence) for the city of Sofia

Science.gov (United States)

Aleksandrova, Irena; Simeonova, Stela; Solakov, Dimcho; Popova, Maria

2014-05-01

Among the many kinds of natural and man-made disasters, earthquakes dominate with regard to their social and economical impact on the urban environment. Global seismic risk to earthquakes are increasing steadily as urbanization and development occupy more areas that a prone to effects of strong earthquakes. Additionally, the uncontrolled growth of mega cities in highly seismic areas around the world is often associated with the construction of seismically unsafe buildings and infrastructures, and undertaken with an insufficient knowledge of the regional seismicity peculiarities and seismic hazard. The assessment of seismic hazard and generation of earthquake scenarios is the first link in the prevention chain and the first step in the evaluation of the seismic risk. The earthquake scenarios are intended as a basic input for developing detailed earthquake damage scenarios for the cities and can be used in earthquake-safe town and infrastructure planning. The city of Sofia is the capital of Bulgaria. It is situated in the centre of the Sofia area that is the most populated (the population is of more than 1.2 mil. inhabitants), industrial and cultural region of Bulgaria that faces considerable earthquake risk. The available historical documents prove the occurrence of destructive earthquakes during the 15th-18th centuries in the Sofia zone. In 19th century the city of Sofia has experienced two strong earthquakes: the 1818 earthquake with epicentral intensity I0=8-9 MSK and the 1858 earthquake with I0=9-10 MSK. During the 20th century the strongest event occurred in the vicinity of the city of Sofia is the 1917 earthquake with MS=5.3 (I0=7-8 MSK). Almost a century later (95 years) an earthquake of moment magnitude 5.6 (I0=7-8 MSK) hit the city of Sofia, on May 22nd, 2012. In the present study as a deterministic scenario event is considered a damaging earthquake with higher probability of occurrence that could affect the city with intensity less than or equal to VIII

Evolution in the lineament patterns associated to strong earthquakes revealed by satellite observations

Science.gov (United States)

Soto-Pinto, C. A.; Arellano-Baeza, A. A.; Ouzounov, D. P.

2011-12-01

We study the temporal evolution of the stress patterns in the crust by using high-resolution (10-300 m) satellite images from MODIS and ASTER satellite sensors. We are able to detect some changes in density and orientation of lineaments preceding earthquake events. A lineament is generally defined as a straight or a somewhat curved feature in the landscape visible in a satellite image as an aligned sequence of pixels of a contrasting intensity compared to the background. The system of lineaments extracted from the satellite images is not identical to the geological lineaments; nevertheless, it generally reflects the structure of the faults and fractures in the Earth's crust. Our analysis has shown that the system of lineaments is very dynamical, and the significant number of lineaments appeared approximately one month before an earthquake, while one month after the earthquake the lineament configuration returned to its initial state. These features were not observed in the test areas that are free of any seismic activity in that period (null hypothesis). We have designed a computational prototype capable to detect lineament evolution and to utilize both ASTER and MODIS satellite L1/L2. We will demonstrate the first successful test results for several Mw> 5 earthquakes in Chile, Peru, China, and California (USA).

Recurrent Holocene movement on the Susitna Glacier Thrust Fault: The structure that initiated the Mw 7.9 Denali Fault earthquake, central Alaska

Science.gov (United States)

Personius, Stephen; Crone, Anthony J.; Burns, Patricia A.; Reitman, Nadine G.

2017-01-01

We conducted a trench investigation and analyzed pre‐ and postearthquake topography to determine the timing and size of prehistoric surface ruptures on the Susitna Glacier fault (SGF), the thrust fault that initiated the 2002 Mw 7.9 Denali fault earthquake sequence in central Alaska. In two of our three hand‐excavated trenches, we found clear evidence for a single pre‐2002 earthquake (penultimate earthquake [PE]) and determined an age of 2210±420  cal. B.P. (2σ) for this event. We used structure‐from‐motion software to create a pre‐2002‐earthquake digital surface model (DSM) from 1:62,800‐scale aerial photography taken in 1980 and compared this DSM with postearthquake 5‐m/pixel Interferometric Synthetic Aperature Radar topography taken in 2010. Topographic profiles measured from the pre‐earthquake DSM show features that we interpret as fault and fold scarps. These landforms were about the same size as those formed in 2002, so we infer that the PE was similar in size to the initial (Mw 7.2) subevent of the 2002 sequence. A recurrence interval of 2270 yrs and dip slip of ∼4.8  m yield a single‐interval slip rate of ∼1.8  mm/yr. The lack of evidence for pre‐PE deformation indicates probable episodic (clustering) behavior on the SGF that may be related to strain migration among other similarly oriented thrust faults that together accommodate shortening south of the Denali fault. We suspect that slip‐partitioned thrust‐triggered earthquakes may be a common occurrence on the Denali fault system, but documenting the frequency of such events will be very difficult, given the lack of long‐term paleoseismic records, the number of potential thrust‐earthquake sources, and the pervasive glacial erosion in the region.

Earthquake recurrence models fail when earthquakes fail to reset the stress field

Science.gov (United States)

Tormann, Thessa; Wiemer, Stefan; Hardebeck, Jeanne L.

2012-01-01

Parkfield's regularly occurring M6 mainshocks, about every 25 years, have over two decades stoked seismologists' hopes to successfully predict an earthquake of significant size. However, with the longest known inter-event time of 38 years, the latest M6 in the series (28 Sep 2004) did not conform to any of the applied forecast models, questioning once more the predictability of earthquakes in general. Our study investigates the spatial pattern of b-values along the Parkfield segment through the seismic cycle and documents a stably stressed structure. The forecasted rate of M6 earthquakes based on Parkfield's microseismicity b-values corresponds well to observed rates. We interpret the observed b-value stability in terms of the evolution of the stress field in that area: the M6 Parkfield earthquakes do not fully unload the stress on the fault, explaining why time recurrent models fail. We present the 1989 M6.9 Loma Prieta earthquake as counter example, which did release a significant portion of the stress along its fault segment and yields a substantial change in b-values.

Earthquake Damage Assessment Using Objective Image Segmentation: A Case Study of 2010 Haiti Earthquake

Science.gov (United States)

Oommen, Thomas; Rebbapragada, Umaa; Cerminaro, Daniel

2012-01-01

In this study, we perform a case study on imagery from the Haiti earthquake that evaluates a novel object-based approach for characterizing earthquake induced surface effects of liquefaction against a traditional pixel based change technique. Our technique, which combines object-oriented change detection with discriminant/categorical functions, shows the power of distinguishing earthquake-induced surface effects from changes in buildings using the object properties concavity, convexity, orthogonality and rectangularity. Our results suggest that object-based analysis holds promise in automatically extracting earthquake-induced damages from high-resolution aerial/satellite imagery.

Rupture, waves and earthquakes.

Science.gov (United States)

Uenishi, Koji

2017-01-01

Normally, an earthquake is considered as a phenomenon of wave energy radiation by rupture (fracture) of solid Earth. However, the physics of dynamic process around seismic sources, which may play a crucial role in the occurrence of earthquakes and generation of strong waves, has not been fully understood yet. Instead, much of former investigation in seismology evaluated earthquake characteristics in terms of kinematics that does not directly treat such dynamic aspects and usually excludes the influence of high-frequency wave components over 1 Hz. There are countless valuable research outcomes obtained through this kinematics-based approach, but "extraordinary" phenomena that are difficult to be explained by this conventional description have been found, for instance, on the occasion of the 1995 Hyogo-ken Nanbu, Japan, earthquake, and more detailed study on rupture and wave dynamics, namely, possible mechanical characteristics of (1) rupture development around seismic sources, (2) earthquake-induced structural failures and (3) wave interaction that connects rupture (1) and failures (2), would be indispensable.

The 2012 Emilia seismic sequence (Northern Italy): Imaging the thrust fault system by accurate aftershock location

Science.gov (United States)

Govoni, Aladino; Marchetti, Alessandro; De Gori, Pasquale; Di Bona, Massimo; Lucente, Francesco Pio; Improta, Luigi; Chiarabba, Claudio; Nardi, Anna; Margheriti, Lucia; Agostinetti, Nicola Piana; Di Giovambattista, Rita; Latorre, Diana; Anselmi, Mario; Ciaccio, Maria Grazia; Moretti, Milena; Castellano, Corrado; Piccinini, Davide

2014-05-01

Starting from late May 2012, the Emilia region (Northern Italy) was severely shaken by an intense seismic sequence, originated from a ML 5.9 earthquake on May 20th, at a hypocentral depth of 6.3 km, with thrust-type focal mechanism. In the following days, the seismic rate remained high, counting 50 ML ≥ 2.0 earthquakes a day, on average. Seismicity spreads along a 30 km east-west elongated area, in the Po river alluvial plain, in the nearby of the cities Ferrara and Modena. Nine days after the first shock, another destructive thrust-type earthquake (ML 5.8) hit the area to the west, causing further damage and fatalities. Aftershocks following this second destructive event extended along the same east-westerly trend for further 20 km to the west, thus illuminating an area of about 50 km in length, on the whole. After the first shock struck, on May 20th, a dense network of temporary seismic stations, in addition to the permanent ones, was deployed in the meizoseismal area, leading to a sensible improvement of the earthquake monitoring capability there. A combined dataset, including three-component seismic waveforms recorded by both permanent and temporary stations, has been analyzed in order to obtain an appropriate 1-D velocity model for earthquake location in the study area. Here we describe the main seismological characteristics of this seismic sequence and, relying on refined earthquakes location, we make inferences on the geometry of the thrust system responsible for the two strongest shocks.

Earthquake imprints on a lacustrine deltaic system: The Kürk Delta along the East Anatolian Fault (Turkey)

KAUST Repository

Hubert-Ferrari, Auré lia; El-Ouahabi, Meriam; Garcia-Moreno, David; Avsar, Ulas; Altınok, Sevgi; Schmidt, Sabine; Fagel, Nathalie; Ç ağatay, Namık

2017-01-01

Deltas contain sedimentary records that are not only indicative of water-level changes, but also particularly sensitive to earthquake shaking typically resulting in soft-sediment-deformation structures. The Kürk lacustrine delta lies at the south-western extremity of Lake Hazar in eastern Turkey and is adjacent to the seismogenic East Anatolian Fault, which has generated earthquakes of magnitude 7. This study re-evaluates water-level changes and earthquake shaking that have affected the Kürk Delta, combining geophysical data (seismic-reflection profiles and side-scan sonar), remote sensing images, historical data, onland outcrops and offshore coring. The history of water-level changes provides a temporal framework for the depositional record. In addition to the common soft-sediment deformation documented previously, onland outcrops reveal a record of deformation (fracturing, tilt and clastic dykes) linked to large earthquake-induced liquefactions and lateral spreading. The recurrent liquefaction structures can be used to obtain a palaeoseismological record. Five event horizons were identified that could be linked to historical earthquakes occurring in the last 1000 years along the East Anatolian Fault. Sedimentary cores sampling the most recent subaqueous sedimentation revealed the occurrence of another type of earthquake indicator. Based on radionuclide dating (Cs and Pb), two major sedimentary events were attributed to the ad 1874 to 1875 East Anatolian Fault earthquake sequence. Their sedimentological characteristics were determined by X-ray imagery, X-ray diffraction, loss-on-ignition, grain-size distribution and geophysical measurements. The events are interpreted to be hyperpycnal deposits linked to post-seismic sediment reworking of earthquake-triggered landslides.

Earthquake imprints on a lacustrine deltaic system: The Kürk Delta along the East Anatolian Fault (Turkey)

KAUST Repository

Hubert-Ferrari, Aurélia

2017-01-05

Deltas contain sedimentary records that are not only indicative of water-level changes, but also particularly sensitive to earthquake shaking typically resulting in soft-sediment-deformation structures. The Kürk lacustrine delta lies at the south-western extremity of Lake Hazar in eastern Turkey and is adjacent to the seismogenic East Anatolian Fault, which has generated earthquakes of magnitude 7. This study re-evaluates water-level changes and earthquake shaking that have affected the Kürk Delta, combining geophysical data (seismic-reflection profiles and side-scan sonar), remote sensing images, historical data, onland outcrops and offshore coring. The history of water-level changes provides a temporal framework for the depositional record. In addition to the common soft-sediment deformation documented previously, onland outcrops reveal a record of deformation (fracturing, tilt and clastic dykes) linked to large earthquake-induced liquefactions and lateral spreading. The recurrent liquefaction structures can be used to obtain a palaeoseismological record. Five event horizons were identified that could be linked to historical earthquakes occurring in the last 1000 years along the East Anatolian Fault. Sedimentary cores sampling the most recent subaqueous sedimentation revealed the occurrence of another type of earthquake indicator. Based on radionuclide dating (Cs and Pb), two major sedimentary events were attributed to the ad 1874 to 1875 East Anatolian Fault earthquake sequence. Their sedimentological characteristics were determined by X-ray imagery, X-ray diffraction, loss-on-ignition, grain-size distribution and geophysical measurements. The events are interpreted to be hyperpycnal deposits linked to post-seismic sediment reworking of earthquake-triggered landslides.

The CATDAT damaging earthquakes database

Science.gov (United States)

Daniell, J. E.; Khazai, B.; Wenzel, F.; Vervaeck, A.

2011-08-01

The global CATDAT damaging earthquakes and secondary effects (tsunami, fire, landslides, liquefaction and fault rupture) database was developed to validate, remove discrepancies, and expand greatly upon existing global databases; and to better understand the trends in vulnerability, exposure, and possible future impacts of such historic earthquakes. Lack of consistency and errors in other earthquake loss databases frequently cited and used in analyses was a major shortcoming in the view of the authors which needed to be improved upon. Over 17 000 sources of information have been utilised, primarily in the last few years, to present data from over 12 200 damaging earthquakes historically, with over 7000 earthquakes since 1900 examined and validated before insertion into the database. Each validated earthquake includes seismological information, building damage, ranges of social losses to account for varying sources (deaths, injuries, homeless, and affected), and economic losses (direct, indirect, aid, and insured). Globally, a slightly increasing trend in economic damage due to earthquakes is not consistent with the greatly increasing exposure. The 1923 Great Kanto (214 billion USD damage; 2011 HNDECI-adjusted dollars) compared to the 2011 Tohoku (>300 billion USD at time of writing), 2008 Sichuan and 1995 Kobe earthquakes show the increasing concern for economic loss in urban areas as the trend should be expected to increase. Many economic and social loss values not reported in existing databases have been collected. Historical GDP (Gross Domestic Product), exchange rate, wage information, population, HDI (Human Development Index), and insurance information have been collected globally to form comparisons. This catalogue is the largest known cross-checked global historic damaging earthquake database and should have far-reaching consequences for earthquake loss estimation, socio-economic analysis, and the global reinsurance field.

The CATDAT damaging earthquakes database

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

J. E. Daniell

2011-08-01

Full Text Available The global CATDAT damaging earthquakes and secondary effects (tsunami, fire, landslides, liquefaction and fault rupture database was developed to validate, remove discrepancies, and expand greatly upon existing global databases; and to better understand the trends in vulnerability, exposure, and possible future impacts of such historic earthquakes.

Lack of consistency and errors in other earthquake loss databases frequently cited and used in analyses was a major shortcoming in the view of the authors which needed to be improved upon.

Over 17 000 sources of information have been utilised, primarily in the last few years, to present data from over 12 200 damaging earthquakes historically, with over 7000 earthquakes since 1900 examined and validated before insertion into the database. Each validated earthquake includes seismological information, building damage, ranges of social losses to account for varying sources (deaths, injuries, homeless, and affected, and economic losses (direct, indirect, aid, and insured.

Globally, a slightly increasing trend in economic damage due to earthquakes is not consistent with the greatly increasing exposure. The 1923 Great Kanto ($214 billion USD damage; 2011 HNDECI-adjusted dollars compared to the 2011 Tohoku (>$300 billion USD at time of writing, 2008 Sichuan and 1995 Kobe earthquakes show the increasing concern for economic loss in urban areas as the trend should be expected to increase. Many economic and social loss values not reported in existing databases have been collected. Historical GDP (Gross Domestic Product, exchange rate, wage information, population, HDI (Human Development Index, and insurance information have been collected globally to form comparisons.

This catalogue is the largest known cross-checked global historic damaging earthquake database and should have far-reaching consequences for earthquake loss estimation, socio-economic analysis, and the global

Ionospheric phenomena before strong earthquakes

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

A. S. Silina

2001-01-01

Full Text Available A statistical analysis of several ionospheric parameters before earthquakes with magnitude M > 5.5 located less than 500 km from an ionospheric vertical sounding station is performed. Ionospheric effects preceding "deep" (depth h > 33 km and "crust" (h 33 km earthquakes were analysed separately. Data of nighttime measurements of the critical frequencies foF2 and foEs, the frequency fbEs and Es-spread at the middle latitude station Dushanbe were used. The frequencies foF2 and fbEs are proportional to the square root of the ionization density at heights of 300 km and 100 km, respectively. It is shown that two days before the earthquakes the values of foF2 averaged over the morning hours (00:00 LT–06:00 LT and of fbEs averaged over the nighttime hours (18:00 LT–06:00 LT decrease; the effect is stronger for the "deep" earthquakes. Analysing the coefficient of semitransparency which characterizes the degree of small-scale turbulence, it was shown that this value increases 1–4 days before "crust" earthquakes, and it does not change before "deep" earthquakes. Studying Es-spread which manifests itself as diffuse Es track on ionograms and characterizes the degree of large-scale turbulence, it was found that the number of Es-spread observations increases 1–3 days before the earthquakes; for "deep" earthquakes the effect is more intensive. Thus it may be concluded that different mechanisms of energy transfer from the region of earthquake preparation to the ionosphere occur for "deep" and "crust" events.

A Multi-parametric Climatological Approach to Study the 2016 Amatrice-Norcia (Central Italy) Earthquake Preparatory Phase

Science.gov (United States)

Piscini, Alessandro; De Santis, Angelo; Marchetti, Dedalo; Cianchini, Gianfranco

2017-10-01

Based on observations prior to earthquakes, recent theoretical considerations suggest that some geophysical quantities reveal abnormal changes that anticipate moderate and strong earthquakes, within a defined spatial area (the so-called Dobrovolsky area) according to a lithosphere-atmosphere-ionosphere coupling model. One of the possible pre-earthquake effects could be the appearance of some climatological anomalies in the epicentral region, weeks/months before the major earthquakes. In this paper, the period of 2 months preceding the Amatrice-Norcia (Central Italy) earthquake sequence, that started on 24 August 2016 with an M6 earthquake and a few months later produced other two major shocks (i.e. an M5.9 on 26 October and then an M6.5 on 30 October), was analyzed in terms of skin temperature, total column water vapour and total column of ozone, compared with the past 37-year trend. The novelty of the method stands in the way the complete time series is reduced, where also the possible effect of global warming is properly removed. The simultaneous analysis showed the presence of persistent contemporary anomalies in all of the analysed parameters. To validate the technique, a confutation/confirmation analysis was undertaken where these parameters were successfully analyzed in the same months but considering a seismically "calm" year, when significant seismicity was not present. We also extended the analysis to all available years to construct a confusion matrix comparing the occurrence of climatological data anomalies with real seismicity. This work confirms the potentiality of multi parameters in anticipating the occurrence of large earthquakes in Central Italy, thus reinforcing the idea of considering such behaviour an effective tool for an integrated system of future earthquake prediction.

Tradable Earthquake Certificates

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Woerdman, Edwin; Dulleman, Minne

2018-01-01

This article presents a market-based idea to compensate for earthquake damage caused by the extraction of natural gas and applies it to the case of Groningen in the Netherlands. Earthquake certificates give homeowners a right to yearly compensation for both property damage and degradation of living

Two critical tests for the Critical Point earthquake

Science.gov (United States)

Tzanis, A.; Vallianatos, F.

2003-04-01

accelerating seismic release is associated with the region defined by the stress field required to rupture a fault with a specified orientation and rake; it is thus possible to incorporate tectonic information into the analysis. Recent analysis of Greek seismicity shows definite power-law acceleration in two areas along the Hellenic Arc, with critical exponents in the expected range of 0.2-0.3. The first area is in the west Hellenic Arc, (Ionian Sea). The projected time of failure is in the interval 2003.05-2003.19 and the projected magnitude is of the order M=7. Tectonic modeling of the accelerating sequence shows that this may be interpreted in terms of stress transfer from two fault geometries generating very similar patterns of stress increase and stress shadows. The first scenario calls for a right-lateral oblique-slip fault of NE-SW orientation at the west boundary of the Aegean microplate, just east of the island of Kefallinia (Kefallinia Fault Zone). The second scenario predicts rupture in a slightly left-lateral inverse fault of NW-SE orientation, underlying Kefallinia, with mechanisms consisted with that of McKenzie (Geophys. J. R. astr. Soc., 30, 109-185, 1972) for the destructive M=7.3 earthquake of 12 August 1953. Both scenaria are consistent with the regional tectonics and kinematics and both are consistent with fault zones known to have generated large earthquakes in the past. The second area is in the SW Hellenic Arc (Mediterranean Sea). The projected time of failure is 2003.6 +/- 0.6 and the projected magnitude is M=7.1 +/- 0.4. Tectonic modelling of this sequence leads to a unique rupture scenario, on a left-lateral oblique-slip fault, probably lying at intermediate depths between Crete and the Peloponnesus, to the SW of the island of Antikythira. In both cases, the tectonic modeling has revealed the existence of a region of accelerating seismicity at the areas of positive stress transfer and, importantly, a region of power-law decelerating seismicity at the

Fluid-faulting interactions: Fracture-mesh and fault-valve behavior in the February 2014 Mammoth Mountain, California, earthquake swarm

Science.gov (United States)

Shelly, David R.; Taira, Taka’aki; Prejean, Stephanie; Hill, David P.; Dreger, Douglas S.

2015-01-01

Faulting and fluid transport in the subsurface are highly coupled processes, which may manifest seismically as earthquake swarms. A swarm in February 2014 beneath densely monitored Mammoth Mountain, California, provides an opportunity to witness these interactions in high resolution. Toward this goal, we employ massive waveform-correlation-based event detection and relative relocation, which quadruples the swarm catalog to more than 6000 earthquakes and produces high-precision locations even for very small events. The swarm's main seismic zone forms a distributed fracture mesh, with individual faults activated in short earthquake bursts. The largest event of the sequence, M 3.1, apparently acted as a fault valve and was followed by a distinct wave of earthquakes propagating ~1 km westward from the updip edge of rupture, 1–2 h later. Late in the swarm, multiple small, shallower subsidiary faults activated with pronounced hypocenter migration, suggesting that a broader fluid pressure pulse propagated through the subsurface.

Extreme value statistics and thermodynamics of earthquakes: aftershock sequences

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

B. H. Lavenda

2000-06-01

Full Text Available The Gutenberg-Richter magnitude-frequency law takes into account the minimum detectable magnitude, and treats aftershocks as if they were independent and identically distributed random events. A new magnitude-frequency relation is proposed which takes into account the magnitude of the main shock, and the degree to which aftershocks depend on the main shock makes them appear clustered. In certain cases, there can be two branches in the order-statistics of aftershock sequences: for energies below threshold, the Pareto law applies and the asymptotic distribution of magnitude is the double-exponential distribution, while energies above threshold follow a one-parameter beta distribution, whose exponent is the cluster dimension, and the asymptotic Gompertz distribution predicts a maximum magnitude. The 1957 Aleutian Islands aftershock sequence exemplifies such dual behavior. A thermodynamics of aftershocks is constructed on the analogy between the non-conservation of the number of aftershocks and that of the particle number in degenerate gases.

EARTHQUAKE TRIGGERING AND SPATIAL-TEMPORAL RELATIONS IN THE VICINITY OF YUCCA MOUNTAIN, NEVADA

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

na

2001-02-08

It is well accepted that the 1992 M 5.6 Little Skull Mountain earthquake, the largest historical event to have occurred within 25 km of Yucca Mountain, Nevada, was triggered by the M 7.2 Landers earthquake that occurred the day before. On the premise that earthquakes can be triggered by applied stresses, we have examined the earthquake catalog from the Southern Great Basin Digital Seismic Network (SGBDSN) for other evidence of triggering by external and internal stresses. This catalog now comprises over 12,000 events, encompassing five years of consistent monitoring, and has a low threshold of completeness, varying from M 0 in the center of the network to M 1 at the fringes. We examined the SGBDSN catalog response to external stresses such as large signals propagating from teleseismic and regional earthquakes, microseismic storms, and earth tides. Results are generally negative. We also examined the interplay of earthquakes within the SGBDSN. The number of ''foreshocks'', as judged by most criteria, is significantly higher than the background seismicity rate. In order to establish this, we first removed aftershocks from the catalog with widely used methodology. The existence of SGBDSN foreshocks is supported by comparing actual statistics to those of a simulated catalog with uniform-distributed locations and Poisson-distributed times of occurrence. The probabilities of a given SGBDSN earthquake being followed by one having a higher magnitude within a short time frame and within a close distance are at least as high as those found with regional catalogs. These catalogs have completeness thresholds two to three units higher in magnitude than the SGBDSN catalog used here. The largest earthquake in the SGBDSN catalog, the M 4.7 event in Frenchman Flat on 01/27/1999, was preceded by a definite foreshock sequence. The largest event within 75 km of Yucca Mountain in historical time, the M 5.7 Scotty's Junction event of 08/01/1999, was also

EARTHQUAKE TRIGGERING AND SPATIAL-TEMPORAL RELATIONS IN THE VICINITY OF YUCCA MOUNTAIN, NEVADA