Non-Stationary Internal Tides Observed with Satellite Altimetry

Science.gov (United States)

Ray, Richard D.; Zaron, E. D.

2011-01-01

Temporal variability of the internal tide is inferred from a 17-year combined record of Topex/Poseidon and Jason satellite altimeters. A global sampling of along-track sea-surface height wavenumber spectra finds that non-stationary variance is generally 25% or less of the average variance at wavenumbers characteristic of mode-l tidal internal waves. With some exceptions the non-stationary variance does not exceed 0.25 sq cm. The mode-2 signal, where detectable, contains a larger fraction of non-stationary variance, typically 50% or more. Temporal subsetting of the data reveals interannual variability barely significant compared with tidal estimation error from 3-year records. Comparison of summer vs. winter conditions shows only one region of noteworthy seasonal changes, the northern South China Sea. Implications for the anticipated SWOT altimeter mission are briefly discussed.

Comparison of nonstationary generalized logistic models based on Monte Carlo simulation

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

S. Kim

2015-06-01

Full Text Available Recently, the evidences of climate change have been observed in hydrologic data such as rainfall and flow data. The time-dependent characteristics of statistics in hydrologic data are widely defined as nonstationarity. Therefore, various nonstationary GEV and generalized Pareto models have been suggested for frequency analysis of nonstationary annual maximum and POT (peak-over-threshold data, respectively. However, the alternative models are required for nonstatinoary frequency analysis because of analyzing the complex characteristics of nonstationary data based on climate change. This study proposed the nonstationary generalized logistic model including time-dependent parameters. The parameters of proposed model are estimated using the method of maximum likelihood based on the Newton-Raphson method. In addition, the proposed model is compared by Monte Carlo simulation to investigate the characteristics of models and applicability.

Matérn-based nonstationary cross-covariance models for global processes

KAUST Repository

Jun, Mikyoung

2014-01-01

-covariance models, based on the Matérn covariance model class, that are suitable for describing prominent nonstationary characteristics of the global processes. In particular, we seek nonstationary versions of Matérn covariance models whose smoothness parameters

Correlation, Regression, and Cointegration of Nonstationary Economic Time Series

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Johansen, Søren

), and Phillips (1986) found the limit distributions. We propose to distinguish between empirical and population correlation coefficients and show in a bivariate autoregressive model for nonstationary variables that the empirical correlation and regression coefficients do not converge to the relevant population...... values, due to the trending nature of the data. We conclude by giving a simple cointegration analysis of two interests. The analysis illustrates that much more insight can be gained about the dynamic behavior of the nonstationary variables then simply by calculating a correlation coefficient......Yule (1926) introduced the concept of spurious or nonsense correlation, and showed by simulation that for some nonstationary processes, that the empirical correlations seem not to converge in probability even if the processes were independent. This was later discussed by Granger and Newbold (1974...

Approximate calculation method for integral of mean square value of nonstationary response

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Aoki, Shigeru; Fukano, Azusa

2010-01-01

The response of the structure subjected to nonstationary random vibration such as earthquake excitation is nonstationary random vibration. Calculating method for statistical characteristics of such a response is complicated. Mean square value of the response is usually used to evaluate random response. Integral of mean square value of the response corresponds to total energy of the response. In this paper, a simplified calculation method to obtain integral of mean square value of the response is proposed. As input excitation, nonstationary white noise and nonstationary filtered white noise are used. Integrals of mean square value of the response are calculated for various values of parameters. It is found that the proposed method gives exact value of integral of mean square value of the response.

Nonstationary quantum mechanics

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Todorov, N.S.

1981-01-01

It is shown that the nonstationary Schroedinger equation does not satisfy a well-known adiabatical principle in thermodynamics. A ''renormalization procedure'' based on the possible existence of a time-irreversible basic evolution equation is proposed with the help of which one comes to agreement in a variety of specific cases of an adiabatic inclusion of a perturbing potential. The ideology of the present article rests essentially on the ideology of the preceding articles, in particular article I. (author)

Nonstationary Hydrological Frequency Analysis: Theoretical Methods and Application Challenges

Science.gov (United States)

Xiong, L.

2014-12-01

Because of its great implications in the design and operation of hydraulic structures under changing environments (either climate change or anthropogenic changes), nonstationary hydrological frequency analysis has become so important and essential. Two important achievements have been made in methods. Without adhering to the consistency assumption in the traditional hydrological frequency analysis, the time-varying probability distribution of any hydrological variable can be established by linking the distribution parameters to some covariates such as time or physical variables with the help of some powerful tools like the Generalized Additive Model of Location, Scale and Shape (GAMLSS). With the help of copulas, the multivariate nonstationary hydrological frequency analysis has also become feasible. However, applications of the nonstationary hydrological frequency formula to the design and operation of hydraulic structures for coping with the impacts of changing environments in practice is still faced with many challenges. First, the nonstationary hydrological frequency formulae with time as covariate could only be extrapolated for a very short time period beyond the latest observation time, because such kind of formulae is not physically constrained and the extrapolated outcomes could be unrealistic. There are two physically reasonable methods that can be used for changing environments, one is to directly link the quantiles or the distribution parameters to some measureable physical factors, and the other is to use the derived probability distributions based on hydrological processes. However, both methods are with a certain degree of uncertainty. For the design and operation of hydraulic structures under changing environments, it is recommended that design results of both stationary and nonstationary methods be presented together and compared with each other, to help us understand the potential risks of each method.

System identification through nonstationary data using Time-Frequency Blind Source Separation

Science.gov (United States)

Guo, Yanlin; Kareem, Ahsan

2016-06-01

Classical output-only system identification (SI) methods are based on the assumption of stationarity of the system response. However, measured response of buildings and bridges is usually non-stationary due to strong winds (e.g. typhoon, and thunder storm etc.), earthquakes and time-varying vehicle motions. Accordingly, the response data may have time-varying frequency contents and/or overlapping of modal frequencies due to non-stationary colored excitation. This renders traditional methods problematic for modal separation and identification. To address these challenges, a new SI technique based on Time-Frequency Blind Source Separation (TFBSS) is proposed. By selectively utilizing "effective" information in local regions of the time-frequency plane, where only one mode contributes to energy, the proposed technique can successfully identify mode shapes and recover modal responses from the non-stationary response where the traditional SI methods often encounter difficulties. This technique can also handle response with closely spaced modes which is a well-known challenge for the identification of large-scale structures. Based on the separated modal responses, frequency and damping can be easily identified using SI methods based on a single degree of freedom (SDOF) system. In addition to the exclusive advantage of handling non-stationary data and closely spaced modes, the proposed technique also benefits from the absence of the end effects and low sensitivity to noise in modal separation. The efficacy of the proposed technique is demonstrated using several simulation based studies, and compared to the popular Second-Order Blind Identification (SOBI) scheme. It is also noted that even some non-stationary response data can be analyzed by the stationary method SOBI. This paper also delineates non-stationary cases where SOBI and the proposed scheme perform comparably and highlights cases where the proposed approach is more advantageous. Finally, the performance of the

Circatrigintan cycle of testosterone in human male

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Celec, P.; Kudela, M.; Bursky, P.; Ostatnikova, D.; Zdenek PUTZ, Z.

2002-01-01

In recent years the influence of testosterone on physical and mental well-being has become a focus of research attention. Testosterone is no more considered the m ale hormone . It was proved to influence woman's behaviour and mental functioning as well as that of a man. Cyclic changes throughout the menstrual cycle in women are known. To search for the infradian variations of human male testosterone levels in a follow up study, which was held in autumn 1999 (one month of continuous sampling) and in autumn 2000 (two and a half months of continuous sampling). Testosterone was determined in saliva, which contains biologically active fraction, unbound to proteins. In autumn 2000 sampling of 31 males (mean age 21.3 ± 1.3) collected saliva in the morning 30 minutes after waking-up every second day during one month and every third day during the following 6 weeks. Saliva was deeply frozen and analyzed by radioimmunoassay. Data of our preliminary study (based on samples collected in 1999) indicated circatrigintan variations of male salivary testosterone. By the use of two different methods (zones of minimum-moving averages and analysis of variance) circatrigintan and circavigintan cycles of salivary testosterone were found in the collected data of our subjects. The article considerates clinical applications of variation of hormonal levels. (authors)

Non-stationary covariance function modelling in 2D least-squares collocation

Science.gov (United States)

Darbeheshti, N.; Featherstone, W. E.

2009-06-01

Standard least-squares collocation (LSC) assumes 2D stationarity and 3D isotropy, and relies on a covariance function to account for spatial dependence in the observed data. However, the assumption that the spatial dependence is constant throughout the region of interest may sometimes be violated. Assuming a stationary covariance structure can result in over-smoothing of, e.g., the gravity field in mountains and under-smoothing in great plains. We introduce the kernel convolution method from spatial statistics for non-stationary covariance structures, and demonstrate its advantage for dealing with non-stationarity in geodetic data. We then compared stationary and non- stationary covariance functions in 2D LSC to the empirical example of gravity anomaly interpolation near the Darling Fault, Western Australia, where the field is anisotropic and non-stationary. The results with non-stationary covariance functions are better than standard LSC in terms of formal errors and cross-validation against data not used in the interpolation, demonstrating that the use of non-stationary covariance functions can improve upon standard (stationary) LSC.

Effect of non-stationary climate on infectious gastroenteritis transmission in Japan

Science.gov (United States)

Onozuka, Daisuke

2014-06-01

Local weather factors are widely considered to influence the transmission of infectious gastroenteritis. Few studies, however, have examined the non-stationary relationships between global climatic factors and transmission of infectious gastroenteritis. We analyzed monthly data for cases of infectious gastroenteritis in Fukuoka, Japan from 2000 to 2012 using cross-wavelet coherency analysis to assess the pattern of associations between indices for the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Infectious gastroenteritis cases were non-stationary and significantly associated with the IOD and ENSO (Multivariate ENSO Index [MEI], Niño 1 + 2, Niño 3, Niño 4, and Niño 3.4) for a period of approximately 1 to 2 years. This association was non-stationary and appeared to have a major influence on the synchrony of infectious gastroenteritis transmission. Our results suggest that non-stationary patterns of association between global climate factors and incidence of infectious gastroenteritis should be considered when developing early warning systems for epidemics of infectious gastroenteritis.

Non-stationary condition monitoring through event alignment

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Pontoppidan, Niels Henrik; Larsen, Jan

2004-01-01

We present an event alignment framework which enables change detection in non-stationary signals. change detection. Classical condition monitoring frameworks have been restrained to laboratory settings with stationary operating conditions, which are not resembling real world operation....... In this paper we apply the technique for non-stationary condition monitoring of large diesel engines based on acoustical emission sensor signals. The performance of the event alignment is analyzed in an unsupervised probabilistic detection framework based on outlier detection with either Principal Component...... Analysis or Gaussian Processes modeling. We are especially interested in the true performance of the condition monitoring performance with mixed aligned and unaligned data, e.g. detection of fault condition of unaligned examples versus false alarms of aligned normal condition data. Further, we expect...

Correlation, regression, and cointegration of nonstationary economic time series

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Johansen, Søren

Yule (1926) introduced the concept of spurious or nonsense correlation, and showed by simulation that for some nonstationary processes, that the empirical correlations seem not to converge in probability even if the processes were independent. This was later discussed by Granger and Newbold (1974......), and Phillips (1986) found the limit distributions. We propose to distinguish between empirical and population correlation coeffients and show in a bivariate autoregressive model for nonstationary variables that the empirical correlation and regression coe¢ cients do not converge to the relevant population...

Non-stationary Markov chains

OpenAIRE

Mallak, Saed

1996-01-01

Ankara : Department of Mathematics and Institute of Engineering and Sciences of Bilkent University, 1996. Thesis (Master's) -- Bilkent University, 1996. Includes bibliographical references leaves leaf 29 In thi.s work, we studierl the Ergodicilv of Non-Stationary .Markov chains. We gave several e.xainples with different cases. We proved that given a sec[uence of Markov chains such that the limit of this sec|uence is an Ergodic Markov chain, then the limit of the combination ...

Nonstationary ARCH and GARCH with t-distributed Innovations

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Pedersen, Rasmus Søndergaard; Rahbek, Anders

Consistency and asymptotic normality are established for the maximum likelihood estimators in the nonstationary ARCH and GARCH models with general t-distributed innovations. The results hold for joint estimation of (G)ARCH effects and the degrees of freedom parameter parametrizing the t-distribut......Consistency and asymptotic normality are established for the maximum likelihood estimators in the nonstationary ARCH and GARCH models with general t-distributed innovations. The results hold for joint estimation of (G)ARCH effects and the degrees of freedom parameter parametrizing the t......-distribution. With T denoting sample size, classic square-root T-convergence is shown to hold with closed form expressions for the multivariate covariances....

Non-stationary flow of hydraulic oil in long pipe

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Hružík Lumír

2014-03-01

Full Text Available The paper deals with experimental evaluation and numerical simulation of non-stationary flow of hydraulic oil in a long hydraulic line. Non-stationary flow is caused by a quick closing of valves at the beginning and the end of the pipe. Time dependence of pressure is measured by means of pressure sensors at the beginning and the end of the pipe. A mathematical model of a given circuit is created using Matlab SimHydraulics software. The long line is simulated by means of segmented pipe. The simulation is verified by experiment.

Analyzing nonstationary financial time series via hilbert-huang transform (HHT)

Science.gov (United States)

Huang, Norden E. (Inventor)

2008-01-01

An apparatus, computer program product and method of analyzing non-stationary time varying phenomena. A representation of a non-stationary time varying phenomenon is recursively sifted using Empirical Mode Decomposition (EMD) to extract intrinsic mode functions (IMFs). The representation is filtered to extract intrinsic trends by combining a number of IMFs. The intrinsic trend is inherent in the data and identifies an IMF indicating the variability of the phenomena. The trend also may be used to detrend the data.

Detection of Partial Demagnetization Fault in PMSMs Operating under Nonstationary Conditions

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Wang, Chao; Delgado Prieto, Miguel; Romeral, Luis

2016-01-01

Demagnetization fault detection of in-service Permanent Magnet Synchronous Machines (PMSMs) is a challenging task because most PMSMs operate under nonstationary circumstances in industrial applications. A novel approach based on tracking characteristic orders of stator current using Vold-Kalman F......Demagnetization fault detection of in-service Permanent Magnet Synchronous Machines (PMSMs) is a challenging task because most PMSMs operate under nonstationary circumstances in industrial applications. A novel approach based on tracking characteristic orders of stator current using Vold......-Kalman Filter is proposed to detect the partial demagnetization fault in PMSMs running at nonstationary conditions. Amplitude of envelope of the fault characteristic orders is used as fault indictor. Experimental results verify the superiority of the proposed method on partial demagnetization online fault...... detection of PMSMs under various speed and load conditions....

Non-Stationary Dependence Structures for Spatial Extremes

KAUST Repository

Huser, Raphaë l; Genton, Marc G.

2016-01-01

been developed, and fitted to various types of data. However, a recurrent problem is the modeling of non-stationarity. In this paper, we develop non-stationary max-stable dependence structures in which covariates can be easily incorporated. Inference

Non-Stationary Dependence Structures for Spatial Extremes

KAUST Repository

Huser, Raphaël

2016-03-03

Max-stable processes are natural models for spatial extremes because they provide suitable asymptotic approximations to the distribution of maxima of random fields. In the recent past, several parametric families of stationary max-stable models have been developed, and fitted to various types of data. However, a recurrent problem is the modeling of non-stationarity. In this paper, we develop non-stationary max-stable dependence structures in which covariates can be easily incorporated. Inference is performed using pairwise likelihoods, and its performance is assessed by an extensive simulation study based on a non-stationary locally isotropic extremal t model. Evidence that unknown parameters are well estimated is provided, and estimation of spatial return level curves is discussed. The methodology is demonstrated with temperature maxima recorded over a complex topography. Models are shown to satisfactorily capture extremal dependence.

Loss energy states of nonstationary quantum systems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dodonov, V.V.; Man'ko, V.I.

1978-01-01

The concept of loss energy states is introduced. The loss energy states of the quantum harmonic damping oscillator are considered in detail. The method of constructing the loss energy states for general multidimensional quadratic nonstationary quantum systems is briefly discussed

Robust Forecasting of Non-Stationary Time Series

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Croux, C.; Fried, R.; Gijbels, I.; Mahieu, K.

2010-01-01

This paper proposes a robust forecasting method for non-stationary time series. The time series is modelled using non-parametric heteroscedastic regression, and fitted by a localized MM-estimator, combining high robustness and large efficiency. The proposed method is shown to produce reliable

Hazard function theory for nonstationary natural hazards

Science.gov (United States)

Read, L.; Vogel, R. M.

2015-12-01

Studies from the natural hazards literature indicate that many natural processes, including wind speeds, landslides, wildfires, precipitation, streamflow and earthquakes, show evidence of nonstationary behavior such as trends in magnitudes through time. Traditional probabilistic analysis of natural hazards based on partial duration series (PDS) generally assumes stationarity in the magnitudes and arrivals of events, i.e. that the probability of exceedance is constant through time. Given evidence of trends and the consequent expected growth in devastating impacts from natural hazards across the world, new methods are needed to characterize their probabilistic behavior. The field of hazard function analysis (HFA) is ideally suited to this problem because its primary goal is to describe changes in the exceedance probability of an event over time. HFA is widely used in medicine, manufacturing, actuarial statistics, reliability engineering, economics, and elsewhere. HFA provides a rich theory to relate the natural hazard event series (x) with its failure time series (t), enabling computation of corresponding average return periods and reliabilities associated with nonstationary event series. This work investigates the suitability of HFA to characterize nonstationary natural hazards whose PDS magnitudes are assumed to follow the widely applied Poisson-GP model. We derive a 2-parameter Generalized Pareto hazard model and demonstrate how metrics such as reliability and average return period are impacted by nonstationarity and discuss the implications for planning and design. Our theoretical analysis linking hazard event series x, with corresponding failure time series t, should have application to a wide class of natural hazards.

Hazard function theory for nonstationary natural hazards

Science.gov (United States)

Read, Laura K.; Vogel, Richard M.

2016-04-01

Impact from natural hazards is a shared global problem that causes tremendous loss of life and property, economic cost, and damage to the environment. Increasingly, many natural processes show evidence of nonstationary behavior including wind speeds, landslides, wildfires, precipitation, streamflow, sea levels, and earthquakes. Traditional probabilistic analysis of natural hazards based on peaks over threshold (POT) generally assumes stationarity in the magnitudes and arrivals of events, i.e., that the probability of exceedance of some critical event is constant through time. Given increasing evidence of trends in natural hazards, new methods are needed to characterize their probabilistic behavior. The well-developed field of hazard function analysis (HFA) is ideally suited to this problem because its primary goal is to describe changes in the exceedance probability of an event over time. HFA is widely used in medicine, manufacturing, actuarial statistics, reliability engineering, economics, and elsewhere. HFA provides a rich theory to relate the natural hazard event series (X) with its failure time series (T), enabling computation of corresponding average return periods, risk, and reliabilities associated with nonstationary event series. This work investigates the suitability of HFA to characterize nonstationary natural hazards whose POT magnitudes are assumed to follow the widely applied generalized Pareto model. We derive the hazard function for this case and demonstrate how metrics such as reliability and average return period are impacted by nonstationarity and discuss the implications for planning and design. Our theoretical analysis linking hazard random variable X with corresponding failure time series T should have application to a wide class of natural hazards with opportunities for future extensions.

Distinguishing Stationary/Nonstationary Scaling Processes Using Wavelet Tsallis q-Entropies

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Julio Ramirez Pacheco

2012-01-01

Full Text Available Classification of processes as stationary or nonstationary has been recognized as an important and unresolved problem in the analysis of scaling signals. Stationarity or nonstationarity determines not only the form of autocorrelations and moments but also the selection of estimators. In this paper, a methodology for classifying scaling processes as stationary or nonstationary is proposed. The method is based on wavelet Tsallis q-entropies and particularly on the behaviour of these entropies for scaling signals. It is demonstrated that the observed wavelet Tsallis q-entropies of 1/f signals can be modeled by sum-cosh apodizing functions which allocates constant entropies to a set of scaling signals and varying entropies to the rest and that this allocation is controlled by q. The proposed methodology, therefore, differentiates stationary signals from non-stationary ones based on the observed wavelet Tsallis entropies for 1/f signals. Experimental studies using synthesized signals confirm that the proposed method not only achieves satisfactorily classifications but also outperforms current methods proposed in the literature.

A Generalized Framework for Non-Stationary Extreme Value Analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Ragno, E.; Cheng, L.; Sadegh, M.; AghaKouchak, A.

2017-12-01

Empirical trends in climate variables including precipitation, temperature, snow-water equivalent at regional to continental scales are evidence of changes in climate over time. The evolving climate conditions and human activity-related factors such as urbanization and population growth can exert further changes in weather and climate extremes. As a result, the scientific community faces an increasing demand for updated appraisal of the time-varying climate extremes. The purpose of this study is to offer a robust and flexible statistical tool for non-stationary extreme value analysis which can better characterize the severity and likelihood of extreme climatic variables. This is critical to ensure a more resilient environment in a changing climate. Following the positive feedback on the first version of Non-Stationary Extreme Value Analysis (NEVA) Toolbox by Cheng at al. 2014, we present an improved version, i.e. NEVA2.0. The upgraded version herein builds upon a newly-developed hybrid evolution Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) approach for numerical parameters estimation and uncertainty assessment. This addition leads to a more robust uncertainty estimates of return levels, return periods, and risks of climatic extremes under both stationary and non-stationary assumptions. Moreover, NEVA2.0 is flexible in incorporating any user-specified covariate other than the default time-covariate (e.g., CO2 emissions, large scale climatic oscillation patterns). The new feature will allow users to examine non-stationarity of extremes induced by physical conditions that underlie the extreme events (e.g. antecedent soil moisture deficit, large-scale climatic teleconnections, urbanization). In addition, the new version offers an option to generate stationary and/or non-stationary rainfall Intensity - Duration - Frequency (IDF) curves that are widely used for risk assessment and infrastructure design. Finally, a Graphical User Interface (GUI) of the package is provided, making NEVA

Dynamic Memory Model for Non-Stationary Optimization

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Bendtsen, Claus Nørgaard; Krink, Thiemo

2002-01-01

Real-world problems are often nonstationary and can cause cyclic, repetitive patterns in the search landscape. For this class of problems, we introduce a new GA with dynamic explicit memory, which showed superior performance compared to a classic GA and a previously introduced memory-based GA for...

Non-stationary pre-envelope covariances of non-classically damped systems

Science.gov (United States)

Muscolino, G.

1991-08-01

A new formulation is given to evaluate the stationary and non-stationary response of linear non-classically damped systems subjected to multi-correlated non-separable Gaussian input processes. This formulation is based on a new and more suitable definition of the impulse response function matrix for such systems. It is shown that, when using this definition, the stochastic response of non-classically damped systems involves the evaluation of quantities similar to those of classically damped ones. Furthermore, considerations about non-stationary cross-covariances, spectral moments and pre-envelope cross-covariances are presented for a monocorrelated input process.

Learning in Non-Stationary Environments Methods and Applications

CERN Document Server

Lughofer, Edwin

2012-01-01

Recent decades have seen rapid advances in automatization processes, supported by modern machines and computers. The result is significant increases in system complexity and state changes, information sources, the need for faster data handling and the integration of environmental influences. Intelligent systems, equipped with a taxonomy of data-driven system identification and machine learning algorithms, can handle these problems partially. Conventional learning algorithms in a batch off-line setting fail whenever dynamic changes of the process appear due to non-stationary environments and external influences.   Learning in Non-Stationary Environments: Methods and Applications offers a wide-ranging, comprehensive review of recent developments and important methodologies in the field. The coverage focuses on dynamic learning in unsupervised problems, dynamic learning in supervised classification and dynamic learning in supervised regression problems. A later section is dedicated to applications in which dyna...

River-tide dynamics : Exploration of nonstationary and nonlinear tidal behavior in the Yangtze River estuary

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Guo, L.; Van der Wegen, M.; Jay, D.A.; Matte, P.; Wang, Z.B.; Roelvink, J.A.; He, Q.

2015-01-01

River-tide dynamics remain poorly understood, in part because conventional harmonic analysis (HA) does not cope effectively with nonstationary signals. To explore nonstationary behavior of river tides and the modulation effects of river discharge, this work analyzes tidal signals in the Yangtze

Stationary and nonstationary properties of evolving networks with preferential linkage

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jezewski, W.

2002-01-01

Networks evolving by preferential attachment of both external and internal links are investigated. The rate of adding an external link is assumed to depend linearly on the degree of a preexisting node to which a new node is connected. The process of creating an internal link, between a pair of existing vertices, is assumed to be controlled entirely by the vertex that has more links than the other vertex in the pair, and the rate of creation of such a link is assumed to be, in general, nonlinear in the degree of the more strongly connected vertex. It is shown that degree distributions of networks evolving only by creating internal links display for large degrees a nonstationary power-law decay with a time-dependent scaling exponent. Nonstationary power-law behaviors are numerically shown to persist even when the number of nodes is not fixed and both external and internal connections are introduced, provided that the rate of preferential attachment of internal connections is nonlinear. It is argued that nonstationary effects are not unlikely in real networks, although these effects may not be apparent, especially in networks with a slowly varying mean degree

Splines employment for inverse problem of nonstationary thermal conduction

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nikonov, S.P.; Spolitak, S.I.

1985-01-01

An analytical solution has been obtained for an inverse problem of nonstationary thermal conduction which is faced in nonstationary heat transfer data processing when the rewetting in channels with uniform annular fuel element imitators is investigated. In solving the problem both boundary conditions and power density within the imitator are regularized via cubic splines constructed with the use of Reinsch algorithm. The solution can be applied for calculation of temperature distribution in the imitator and the heat flux in two-dimensional approximation (r-z geometry) under the condition that the rewetting front velocity is known, and in one-dimensional r-approximation in cases with negligible axial transport or when there is a lack of data about the temperature disturbance source velocity along the channel

Inferential framework for non-stationary dynamics: theory and applications

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Duggento, Andrea; Luchinsky, Dmitri G; McClintock, Peter V E; Smelyanskiy, Vadim N

2009-01-01

An extended Bayesian inference framework is presented, aiming to infer time-varying parameters in non-stationary nonlinear stochastic dynamical systems. The convergence of the method is discussed. The performance of the technique is studied using, as an example, signal reconstruction for a system of neurons modeled by FitzHugh–Nagumo oscillators: it is applied to reconstruction of the model parameters and elements of the measurement matrix, as well as to inference of the time-varying parameters of the non-stationary system. It is shown that the proposed approach is able to reconstruct unmeasured (hidden) variables of the system, to determine the model parameters, to detect stepwise changes of control parameters for each oscillator and to track the continuous evolution of the control parameters in the adiabatic limit

A Phase Vocoder Based on Nonstationary Gabor Frames

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Ottosen, Emil Solsbæk; Dörfler, Monika

2017-01-01

We propose a new algorithm for time stretching music signals based on the theory of nonstationary Gabor frames (NSGFs). The algorithm extends the techniques of the classical phase vocoder (PV) by incorporating adaptive timefrequency (TF) representations and adaptive phase locking. The adaptive TF...

Identification of QRS complex in non-stationary electrocardiogram of sick infants.

Science.gov (United States)

Kota, S; Swisher, C B; Al-Shargabi, T; Andescavage, N; du Plessis, A; Govindan, R B

2017-08-01

Due to the high-frequency of routine interventions in an intensive care setting, electrocardiogram (ECG) recordings from sick infants are highly non-stationary, with recurrent changes in the baseline, alterations in the morphology of the waveform, and attenuations of the signal strength. Current methods lack reliability in identifying QRS complexes (a marker of individual cardiac cycles) in the non-stationary ECG. In the current study we address this problem by proposing a novel approach to QRS complex identification. Our approach employs lowpass filtering, half-wave rectification, and the use of instantaneous Hilbert phase to identify QRS complexes in the ECG. We demonstrate the application of this method using ECG recordings from eight preterm infants undergoing intensive care, as well as from 18 normal adult volunteers available via a public database. We compared our approach to the commonly used approaches including Pan and Tompkins (PT), gqrs, wavedet, and wqrs for identifying QRS complexes and then compared each with manually identified QRS complexes. For preterm infants, a comparison between the QRS complexes identified by our approach and those identified through manual annotations yielded sensitivity and positive predictive values of 99% and 99.91%, respectively. The comparison metrics for each method are as follows: PT (sensitivity: 84.49%, positive predictive value: 99.88%), gqrs (85.25%, 99.49%), wavedet (95.24%, 99.86%), and wqrs (96.99%, 96.55%). Thus, the sensitivity values of the four methods previously described, are lower than the sensitivity of the method we propose; however, the positive predictive values of these other approaches is comparable to those of our method, with the exception of the wqrs approach, which yielded a slightly lower value. For adult ECG, our approach yielded a sensitivity of 99.78%, whereas PT yielded 99.79%. The positive predictive value was 99.42% for both our approach as well as for PT. We propose a novel method for

Self-organising mixture autoregressive model for non-stationary time series modelling.

Science.gov (United States)

Ni, He; Yin, Hujun

2008-12-01

Modelling non-stationary time series has been a difficult task for both parametric and nonparametric methods. One promising solution is to combine the flexibility of nonparametric models with the simplicity of parametric models. In this paper, the self-organising mixture autoregressive (SOMAR) network is adopted as a such mixture model. It breaks time series into underlying segments and at the same time fits local linear regressive models to the clusters of segments. In such a way, a global non-stationary time series is represented by a dynamic set of local linear regressive models. Neural gas is used for a more flexible structure of the mixture model. Furthermore, a new similarity measure has been introduced in the self-organising network to better quantify the similarity of time series segments. The network can be used naturally in modelling and forecasting non-stationary time series. Experiments on artificial, benchmark time series (e.g. Mackey-Glass) and real-world data (e.g. numbers of sunspots and Forex rates) are presented and the results show that the proposed SOMAR network is effective and superior to other similar approaches.

Matérn-based nonstationary cross-covariance models for global processes

KAUST Repository

Jun, Mikyoung

2014-07-01

Many spatial processes in environmental applications, such as climate variables and climate model errors on a global scale, exhibit complex nonstationary dependence structure, in not only their marginal covariance but also their cross-covariance. Flexible cross-covariance models for processes on a global scale are critical for an accurate description of each spatial process as well as the cross-dependences between them and also for improved predictions. We propose various ways to produce cross-covariance models, based on the Matérn covariance model class, that are suitable for describing prominent nonstationary characteristics of the global processes. In particular, we seek nonstationary versions of Matérn covariance models whose smoothness parameters vary over space, coupled with a differential operators approach for modeling large-scale nonstationarity. We compare their performance to the performance of some existing models in terms of the aic and spatial predictions in two applications: joint modeling of surface temperature and precipitation, and joint modeling of errors in climate model ensembles. © 2014 Elsevier Inc.

A risk-based approach to flood management decisions in a nonstationary world

Science.gov (United States)

Rosner, Ana; Vogel, Richard M.; Kirshen, Paul H.

2014-03-01

Traditional approaches to flood management in a nonstationary world begin with a null hypothesis test of "no trend" and its likelihood, with little or no attention given to the likelihood that we might ignore a trend if it really existed. Concluding a trend exists when it does not, or rejecting a trend when it exists are known as type I and type II errors, respectively. Decision-makers are poorly served by statistical and/or decision methods that do not carefully consider both over- and under-preparation errors, respectively. Similarly, little attention is given to how to integrate uncertainty in our ability to detect trends into a flood management decision context. We show how trend hypothesis test results can be combined with an adaptation's infrastructure costs and damages avoided to provide a rational decision approach in a nonstationary world. The criterion of expected regret is shown to be a useful metric that integrates the statistical, economic, and hydrological aspects of the flood management problem in a nonstationary world.

Compounding approach for univariate time series with nonstationary variances

Science.gov (United States)

Schäfer, Rudi; Barkhofen, Sonja; Guhr, Thomas; Stöckmann, Hans-Jürgen; Kuhl, Ulrich

2015-12-01

A defining feature of nonstationary systems is the time dependence of their statistical parameters. Measured time series may exhibit Gaussian statistics on short time horizons, due to the central limit theorem. The sample statistics for long time horizons, however, averages over the time-dependent variances. To model the long-term statistical behavior, we compound the local distribution with the distribution of its parameters. Here, we consider two concrete, but diverse, examples of such nonstationary systems: the turbulent air flow of a fan and a time series of foreign exchange rates. Our main focus is to empirically determine the appropriate parameter distribution for the compounding approach. To this end, we extract the relevant time scales by decomposing the time signals into windows and determine the distribution function of the thus obtained local variances.

Results of nonlinear and nonstationary image processing

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pizer, S.M.; Correla, J.A.; Chesler, D.A.; Metz, C.E.

1973-01-01

A nonstationary method, multiple z-divided filtering, and a nonlinear method, biased smearing have been applied to scintigrams. Biased smearing does not appear to hold much promise. Multiple z-divided filtering, on the other hand, appears to be justified, and initial results at minimum encourage further research into the possibility that this technique may become a method of choice

Non-stationary dynamics in the bouncing ball: A wavelet perspective

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Behera, Abhinna K., E-mail: abhinna@iiserkol.ac.in; Panigrahi, Prasanta K., E-mail: pprasanta@iiserkol.ac.in [Department of Physical Sciences, Indian Institute of Science Education and Research (IISER) Kolkata, Mohanpur 741246 (India); Sekar Iyengar, A. N., E-mail: ansekar.iyengar@saha.ac.in [Plasma Physics Division, Saha Institute of Nuclear Physics (SINP), Sector 1, Block-AF, Bidhannagar, Kolkata 700064 (India)

2014-12-01

The non-stationary dynamics of a bouncing ball, comprising both periodic as well as chaotic behavior, is studied through wavelet transform. The multi-scale characterization of the time series displays clear signatures of self-similarity, complex scaling behavior, and periodicity. Self-similar behavior is quantified by the generalized Hurst exponent, obtained through both wavelet based multi-fractal detrended fluctuation analysis and Fourier methods. The scale dependent variable window size of the wavelets aptly captures both the transients and non-stationary periodic behavior, including the phase synchronization of different modes. The optimal time-frequency localization of the continuous Morlet wavelet is found to delineate the scales corresponding to neutral turbulence, viscous dissipation regions, and different time varying periodic modulations.

Dynamic Factor Analysis of Nonstationary Multivariate Time Series.

Science.gov (United States)

Molenaar, Peter C. M.; And Others

1992-01-01

The dynamic factor model proposed by P. C. Molenaar (1985) is exhibited, and a dynamic nonstationary factor model (DNFM) is constructed with latent factor series that have time-varying mean functions. The use of a DNFM is illustrated using data from a television viewing habits study. (SLD)

Nonstationary Narrow-Band Response and First-Passage Probability

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Krenk, Steen

1979-01-01

The notion of a nonstationary narrow-band stochastic process is introduced without reference to a frequency spectrum, and the joint distribution function of two consecutive maxima is approximated by use of an envelope. Based on these definitions the first passage problem is treated as a Markov po...

Learning for Nonstationary Dirichlet Processes

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Quinn, A.; Kárný, Miroslav

2007-01-01

Roč. 21, č. 10 (2007), s. 827-855 ISSN 0890-6327 R&D Projects: GA AV ČR 1ET100750401 Grant - others:MŠk ČR(CZ) 2C06001 Program:2C Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z10750506 Keywords : Nestacionární procesy * učení * Dirichletovy procesy * zapomínání Subject RIV: BB - Applied Statistics, Operational Research Impact factor: 0.776, year: 2007 http://library.utia.cas.cz/separaty/2007/as/karny- learning for nonstationary dirichlet processes.pdf

Measurement of Non-Stationary Characteristics of a Landfall Typhoon at the Jiangyin Bridge Site

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Xuhui He

2017-09-01

Full Text Available The wind-sensitive long-span suspension bridge is a vital element in land transportation. Understanding the wind characteristics at the bridge site is thus of great significance to the wind- resistant analysis of such a flexible structure. In this study, a strong wind event from a landfall typhoon called Soudelor recorded at the Jiangyin Bridge site with the anemometer is taken as the research object. As inherent time-varying trends are frequently captured in typhoon events, the wind characteristics of Soudelor are analyzed in a non-stationary perspective. The time-varying mean is first extracted with the wavelet-based self-adaptive method. Then, the non-stationary turbulent wind characteristics, e.g.; turbulence intensity, gust factor, turbulence integral scale, and power spectral density, are investigated and compared with the results from the stationary analysis. The comparison highlights the importance of non-stationary considerations of typhoon events, and a transition from stationarity to non-stationarity for the analysis of wind effects. The analytical results could help enrich the database of non-stationary wind characteristics, and are expected to provide references for the wind-resistant analysis of engineering structures in similar areas.

Measurement of Non-Stationary Characteristics of a Landfall Typhoon at the Jiangyin Bridge Site.

Science.gov (United States)

He, Xuhui; Qin, Hongxi; Tao, Tianyou; Liu, Wenshuo; Wang, Hao

2017-09-22

The wind-sensitive long-span suspension bridge is a vital element in land transportation. Understanding the wind characteristics at the bridge site is thus of great significance to the wind- resistant analysis of such a flexible structure. In this study, a strong wind event from a landfall typhoon called Soudelor recorded at the Jiangyin Bridge site with the anemometer is taken as the research object. As inherent time-varying trends are frequently captured in typhoon events, the wind characteristics of Soudelor are analyzed in a non-stationary perspective. The time-varying mean is first extracted with the wavelet-based self-adaptive method. Then, the non-stationary turbulent wind characteristics, e.g.; turbulence intensity, gust factor, turbulence integral scale, and power spectral density, are investigated and compared with the results from the stationary analysis. The comparison highlights the importance of non-stationary considerations of typhoon events, and a transition from stationarity to non-stationarity for the analysis of wind effects. The analytical results could help enrich the database of non-stationary wind characteristics, and are expected to provide references for the wind-resistant analysis of engineering structures in similar areas.

Autocalibration method for non-stationary CT bias correction.

Science.gov (United States)

Vegas-Sánchez-Ferrero, Gonzalo; Ledesma-Carbayo, Maria J; Washko, George R; Estépar, Raúl San José

2018-02-01

Computed tomography (CT) is a widely used imaging modality for screening and diagnosis. However, the deleterious effects of radiation exposure inherent in CT imaging require the development of image reconstruction methods which can reduce exposure levels. The development of iterative reconstruction techniques is now enabling the acquisition of low-dose CT images whose quality is comparable to that of CT images acquired with much higher radiation dosages. However, the characterization and calibration of the CT signal due to changes in dosage and reconstruction approaches is crucial to provide clinically relevant data. Although CT scanners are calibrated as part of the imaging workflow, the calibration is limited to select global reference values and does not consider other inherent factors of the acquisition that depend on the subject scanned (e.g. photon starvation, partial volume effect, beam hardening) and result in a non-stationary noise response. In this work, we analyze the effect of reconstruction biases caused by non-stationary noise and propose an autocalibration methodology to compensate it. Our contributions are: 1) the derivation of a functional relationship between observed bias and non-stationary noise, 2) a robust and accurate method to estimate the local variance, 3) an autocalibration methodology that does not necessarily rely on a calibration phantom, attenuates the bias caused by noise and removes the systematic bias observed in devices from different vendors. The validation of the proposed methodology was performed with a physical phantom and clinical CT scans acquired with different configurations (kernels, doses, algorithms including iterative reconstruction). The results confirmed the suitability of the proposed methods for removing the intra-device and inter-device reconstruction biases. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A Novel Simulation Model for Nonstationary Rice Fading Channels

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Kaili Jiang

2018-01-01

Full Text Available In this paper, we propose a new simulator for nonstationary Rice fading channels under nonisotropic scattering scenarios, as well as the improved computation method of simulation parameters. The new simulator can also be applied on generating Rayleigh fading channels by adjusting parameters. The proposed simulator takes into account the smooth transition of fading phases between the adjacent channel states. The time-variant statistical properties of the proposed simulator, that is, the probability density functions (PDFs of envelope and phase, autocorrelation function (ACF, and Doppler power spectrum density (DPSD, are also analyzed and derived. Simulation results have demonstrated that our proposed simulator provides good approximation on the statistical properties with the corresponding theoretical ones, which indicates its usefulness for the performance evaluation and validation of the wireless communication systems under nonstationary and nonisotropic scenarios.

ADSL Transceivers Applying DSM and Their Nonstationary Noise Robustness

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Bostoen Tom

2006-01-01

Full Text Available Dynamic spectrum management (DSM comprises a new set of techniques for multiuser power allocation and/or detection in digital subscriber line (DSL networks. At the Alcatel Research and Innovation Labs, we have recently developed a DSM test bed, which allows the performance of DSM algorithms to be evaluated in practice. With this test bed, we have evaluated the performance of a DSM level-1 algorithm known as iterative water-filling in an ADSL scenario. This paper describes the results of, on the one hand, the performance gains achieved with iterative water-filling, and, on the other hand, the nonstationary noise robustness of DSM-enabled ADSL modems. It will be shown that DSM trades off nonstationary noise robustness for performance improvements. A new bit swap procedure is then introduced to increase the noise robustness when applying DSM.

Advantages of the non-stationary approach: test on eddy current signals

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Brunel, P.

1993-12-01

Conventional signal processing is often unsuitable for the interpretation of intrinsically non-stationary signals, such as surveillance or non destructive testing signals. In these cases, ''advanced'' methods are required. This report presents two applications of non-stationary signal processing methods to the complex signals obtained in eddy current non destructive testing of steam generator tubes. The first application consists in segmenting the absolute channel, which can be likened to a piecewise constant signal. The Page-Hinkley cumulative sum algorithm is used, enabling detection of unknown mean amplitude jumps in a piecewise constant signal disturbed by a white noise. Results are comparable to those obtained with the empirical method currently in use. As easy to implement as the latter, the Page-Hinkley algorithm has the added advantage of being well formalized and of identifying whether the jumps in mean are positive or negative. The second application concerns assistance in detecting characteristic fault transients in the differential channels, using the continuous wavelet transform. The useful signal and noise spectra are fairly close, but not strictly identical. With the continuous wavelet transform, these frequency differences can be turned to account. The method was tested on synthetic signals obtained by summing noise and real defect signals. Using the continuous wavelet transform reduces the minimum signal-to-noise ratio by 5 dB for detection of a transient as compared with direct detection on the original signal. Finally, a summary of non-stationary methods using our data is presented. The two investigations described confirm that non-stationary methods may be considered as interesting signal and image analysis tools, as an efficient complement to conventional methods. (author). 24 figs., 13 refs

An Improved TA-SVM Method Without Matrix Inversion and Its Fast Implementation for Nonstationary Datasets.

Science.gov (United States)

Shi, Yingzhong; Chung, Fu-Lai; Wang, Shitong

2015-09-01

Recently, a time-adaptive support vector machine (TA-SVM) is proposed for handling nonstationary datasets. While attractive performance has been reported and the new classifier is distinctive in simultaneously solving several SVM subclassifiers locally and globally by using an elegant SVM formulation in an alternative kernel space, the coupling of subclassifiers brings in the computation of matrix inversion, thus resulting to suffer from high computational burden in large nonstationary dataset applications. To overcome this shortcoming, an improved TA-SVM (ITA-SVM) is proposed using a common vector shared by all the SVM subclassifiers involved. ITA-SVM not only keeps an SVM formulation, but also avoids the computation of matrix inversion. Thus, we can realize its fast version, that is, improved time-adaptive core vector machine (ITA-CVM) for large nonstationary datasets by using the CVM technique. ITA-CVM has the merit of asymptotic linear time complexity for large nonstationary datasets as well as inherits the advantage of TA-SVM. The effectiveness of the proposed classifiers ITA-SVM and ITA-CVM is also experimentally confirmed.

Time-varying output performances of piezoelectric vibration energy harvesting under nonstationary random vibrations

Science.gov (United States)

Yoon, Heonjun; Kim, Miso; Park, Choon-Su; Youn, Byeng D.

2018-01-01

Piezoelectric vibration energy harvesting (PVEH) has received much attention as a potential solution that could ultimately realize self-powered wireless sensor networks. Since most ambient vibrations in nature are inherently random and nonstationary, the output performances of PVEH devices also randomly change with time. However, little attention has been paid to investigating the randomly time-varying electroelastic behaviors of PVEH systems both analytically and experimentally. The objective of this study is thus to make a step forward towards a deep understanding of the time-varying performances of PVEH devices under nonstationary random vibrations. Two typical cases of nonstationary random vibration signals are considered: (1) randomly-varying amplitude (amplitude modulation; AM) and (2) randomly-varying amplitude with randomly-varying instantaneous frequency (amplitude and frequency modulation; AM-FM). In both cases, this study pursues well-balanced correlations of analytical predictions and experimental observations to deduce the relationships between the time-varying output performances of the PVEH device and two primary input parameters, such as a central frequency and an external electrical resistance. We introduce three correlation metrics to quantitatively compare analytical prediction and experimental observation, including the normalized root mean square error, the correlation coefficient, and the weighted integrated factor. Analytical predictions are in an excellent agreement with experimental observations both mechanically and electrically. This study provides insightful guidelines for designing PVEH devices to reliably generate electric power under nonstationary random vibrations.

Regularized non-stationary morphological reconstruction algorithm for weak signal detection in microseismic monitoring: methodology

Science.gov (United States)

Huang, Weilin; Wang, Runqiu; Chen, Yangkang

2018-05-01

Microseismic signal is typically weak compared with the strong background noise. In order to effectively detect the weak signal in microseismic data, we propose a mathematical morphology based approach. We decompose the initial data into several morphological multiscale components. For detection of weak signal, a non-stationary weighting operator is proposed and introduced into the process of reconstruction of data by morphological multiscale components. The non-stationary weighting operator can be obtained by solving an inversion problem. The regularized non-stationary method can be understood as a non-stationary matching filtering method, where the matching filter has the same size as the data to be filtered. In this paper, we provide detailed algorithmic descriptions and analysis. The detailed algorithm framework, parameter selection and computational issue for the regularized non-stationary morphological reconstruction (RNMR) method are presented. We validate the presented method through a comprehensive analysis through different data examples. We first test the proposed technique using a synthetic data set. Then the proposed technique is applied to a field project, where the signals induced from hydraulic fracturing are recorded by 12 three-component geophones in a monitoring well. The result demonstrates that the RNMR can improve the detectability of the weak microseismic signals. Using the processed data, the short-term-average over long-term average picking algorithm and Geiger's method are applied to obtain new locations of microseismic events. In addition, we show that the proposed RNMR method can be used not only in microseismic data but also in reflection seismic data to detect the weak signal. We also discussed the extension of RNMR from 1-D to 2-D or a higher dimensional version.

Suppression of anomalous synchronization and nonstationary behavior of neural network under small-world topology

Science.gov (United States)

Boaretto, B. R. R.; Budzinski, R. C.; Prado, T. L.; Kurths, J.; Lopes, S. R.

2018-05-01

It is known that neural networks under small-world topology can present anomalous synchronization and nonstationary behavior for weak coupling regimes. Here, we propose methods to suppress the anomalous synchronization and also to diminish the nonstationary behavior occurring in weakly coupled neural network under small-world topology. We consider a network of 2000 thermally sensitive identical neurons, based on the model of Hodgkin-Huxley in a small-world topology, with the probability of adding non local connection equal to p = 0 . 001. Based on experimental protocols to suppress anomalous synchronization, as well as nonstationary behavior of the neural network dynamics, we make use of (i) external stimulus (pulsed current); (ii) biologic parameters changing (neuron membrane conductance changes); and (iii) body temperature changes. Quantification analysis to evaluate phase synchronization makes use of the Kuramoto's order parameter, while recurrence quantification analysis, particularly the determinism, computed over the easily accessible mean field of network, the local field potential (LFP), is used to evaluate nonstationary states. We show that the methods proposed can control the anomalous synchronization and nonstationarity occurring for weak coupling parameter without any effect on the individual neuron dynamics, neither in the expected asymptotic synchronized states occurring for large values of the coupling parameter.

Thin viscoelastic disc subjected to radial non-stationary loading

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Adámek V.

2010-07-01

Full Text Available The investigation of non-stationary wave phenomena in isotropic viscoelastic solids using analytical approaches is the aim of this paper. Concretely, the problem of a thin homogeneous disc subjected to radial pressure load nonzero on the part of its rim is solved. The external excitation is described by the Heaviside function in time, so the nonstationary state of stress is induced in the disc. Dissipative material behaviour of solid studied is represented by the discrete material model of standard linear viscoelastic solid in the Zener configuration. After the derivation of motion equations final form, the method of integral transforms in combination with the Fourier method is used for finding the problem solution. The solving process results in the derivation of integral transforms of radial and circumferential displacement components. Finally, the type of derived functions singularities and possible methods for their inverse Laplace transform are mentioned.

Measuring brain activity cycling (BAC) in long term EEG monitoring of preterm babies

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Stevenson, Nathan J; Palmu, Kirsi; Wikström, Sverre; Hellström-Westas, Lena; Vanhatalo, Sampsa

2014-01-01

Measuring fluctuation of vigilance states in early preterm infants undergoing long term intensive care holds promise for monitoring their neurological well-being. There is currently, however, neither objective nor quantitative methods available for this purpose in a research or clinical environment. The aim of this proof-of-concept study was, therefore, to develop quantitative measures of the fluctuation in vigilance states or brain activity cycling (BAC) in early preterm infants. The proposed measures of BAC were summary statistics computed on a frequency domain representation of the proportional duration of spontaneous activity transients (SAT%) calculated from electroencephalograph (EEG) recordings. Eighteen combinations of three statistics and six frequency domain representations were compared to a visual interpretation of cycling in the SAT% signal. Three high performing measures (band energy/periodogram: R = 0.809, relative band energy/nonstationary frequency marginal: R = 0.711, g-statistic/nonstationary frequency marginal: R = 0.638) were then compared to a grading of sleep wake cycling based on the visual interpretation of the amplitude-integrated EEG trend. These measures of BAC are conceptually straightforward, correlate well with the visual scores of BAC and sleep wake cycling, are robust enough to cope with the technically compromised monitoring data available in intensive care units, and are recommended for further validation in prospective studies. (paper)

Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of flood risk management decisions based on stationary and nonstationary model choices

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Rehan Balqis M.

2016-01-01

Full Text Available Current practice in flood frequency analysis assumes that the stochastic properties of extreme floods follow that of stationary conditions. As human intervention and anthropogenic climate change influences in hydrometeorological variables are becoming evident in some places, there have been suggestions that nonstationary statistics would be better to represent the stochastic properties of the extreme floods. The probabilistic estimation of non-stationary models, however, is surrounded with uncertainty related to scarcity of observations and modelling complexities hence the difficulty to project the future condition. In the face of uncertain future and the subjectivity of model choices, this study attempts to demonstrate the practical implications of applying a nonstationary model and compares it with a stationary model in flood risk assessment. A fully integrated framework to simulate decision makers’ behaviour in flood frequency analysis is thereby developed. The framework is applied to hypothetical flood risk management decisions and the outcomes are compared with those of known underlying future conditions. Uncertainty of the economic performance of the risk-based decisions is assessed through Monte Carlo simulations. Sensitivity of the results is also tested by varying the possible magnitude of future changes. The application provides quantitative and qualitative comparative results that satisfy a preliminary analysis of whether the nonstationary model complexity should be applied to improve the economic performance of decisions. Results obtained from the case study shows that the relative differences of competing models for all considered possible future changes are small, suggesting that stationary assumptions are preferred to a shift to nonstationary statistics for practical application of flood risk management. Nevertheless, nonstationary assumption should also be considered during a planning stage in addition to stationary assumption

A Study of Nonstationary Wind Effects on a Full-Scale Large Cooling Tower Using Empirical Mode Decomposition

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

X. X. Cheng

2017-01-01

Full Text Available Wind effects on structures obtained by field measurements are often found to be nonstationary, but related researches shared by the wind-engineering community are still limited. In this paper, empirical mode decomposition (EMD is applied to the nonstationary wind pressure time-history samples measured on an actual 167-meter high large cooling tower. It is found that the residue and some intrinsic mode functions (IMFs of low frequencies produced by EMD are responsible for the samples’ nonstationarity. Replacing the residue by the constant mean and subtracting the IMFs of low frequencies can help the nonstationary samples become stationary ones. A further step is taken to compare the loading characteristics extracted from the original nonstationary samples with those extracted from the processed stationary samples. Results indicate that nonstationarity effects on wind loads are notable in most cases. The passive wind tunnel simulation technique based on the assumption of stationarity is also examined, and it is found that the technique is basically conservative for use.

Trend analysis using non-stationary time series clustering based on the finite element method

OpenAIRE

Gorji Sefidmazgi, M.; Sayemuzzaman, M.; Homaifar, A.; Jha, M. K.; Liess, S.

2014-01-01

In order to analyze low-frequency variability of climate, it is useful to model the climatic time series with multiple linear trends and locate the times of significant changes. In this paper, we have used non-stationary time series clustering to find change points in the trends. Clustering in a multi-dimensional non-stationary time series is challenging, since the problem is mathematically ill-posed. Clustering based on the finite element method (FEM) is one of the methods ...

Cointegration and Econometric Analysis of Non-Stationary Data in ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

This is in conformity with the philosophy underlying the cointegration theory. Therefore, ignoring cointegration in non-stationary time series variables could lead to misspecification of the underlying process in the determination of corporate income tax in Nigeria. Thus, the study conclude that cointegration is greatly enhanced ...

Demagnetization diagnosis in permanent magnet synchronous motors under non-stationary speed conditions

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Ruiz, Jordi-Roger Riba [EUETII, Dept. d' Enginyeria Electrica, Universitat Politecnica de Catalunya, Placa del Rei 15, 08700 Igualada, Barcelona (Spain); Garcia Espinosa, Antonio [Dept. d' Enginyeria Electrica, Universitat Politecnica de Catalunya C/Colom 1, 08222 Terrassa (Spain); Romeral, Luis; Cusido, Jordi [Dept. d' Enginyeria Electronica, Universitat Politecnica de Catalunya C/Colom 1, 08222 Terrassa (Spain)

2010-10-15

Permanent magnet synchronous motors (PMSMs) are applied in high performance positioning and variable speed applications because of their enhanced features with respect to other AC motor types. Fault detection and diagnosis of electrical motors for critical applications is an active field of research. However, much research remains to be done in the field of PMSM demagnetization faults, especially when running under non-stationary conditions. This paper presents a time-frequency method specifically focused to detect and diagnose demagnetization faults in PMSMs running under non-stationary speed conditions, based on the Hilbert Huang transform. The effectiveness of the proposed method is proven by means of experimental results. (author)

A Novel Simulator of Nonstationary Random MIMO Channels in Rayleigh Fading Scenarios

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Qiuming Zhu

2016-01-01

Full Text Available For simulations of nonstationary multiple-input multiple-output (MIMO Rayleigh fading channels in time-variant scattering environments, a novel channel simulator is proposed based on the superposition of chirp signals. This new method has the advantages of low complexity and implementation simplicity as the sum of sinusoids (SOS method. In order to reproduce realistic time varying statistics for dynamic channels, an efficient parameter computation method is also proposed for updating the frequency parameters of employed chirp signals. Simulation results indicate that the proposed simulator is effective in generating nonstationary MIMO channels with close approximation of the time-variant statistical characteristics in accordance with the expected theoretical counterparts.

Study on statistical analysis of nonlinear and nonstationary reactor noises

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hayashi, Koji

1993-03-01

For the purpose of identification of nonlinear mechanism and diagnosis of nuclear reactor systems, analysis methods for nonlinear reactor noise have been studied. By adding newly developed approximate response function to GMDH, a conventional nonlinear identification method, a useful method for nonlinear spectral analysis and identification of nonlinear mechanism has been established. Measurement experiment and analysis were performed on the reactor power oscillation observed in the NSRR installed at the JAERI and the cause of the instability was clarified. Furthermore, the analysis and data recording methods for nonstationary noise have been studied. By improving the time resolution of instantaneous autoregressive spectrum, a method for monitoring and diagnosis of operational status of nuclear reactor has been established. A preprocessing system for recording of nonstationary reactor noise was developed and its usability was demonstrated through a measurement experiment. (author) 139 refs

Robust Forecasting of Non-Stationary Time Series

OpenAIRE

Croux, C.; Fried, R.; Gijbels, I.; Mahieu, K.

2010-01-01

This paper proposes a robust forecasting method for non-stationary time series. The time series is modelled using non-parametric heteroscedastic regression, and fitted by a localized MM-estimator, combining high robustness and large efficiency. The proposed method is shown to produce reliable forecasts in the presence of outliers, non-linearity, and heteroscedasticity. In the absence of outliers, the forecasts are only slightly less precise than those based on a localized Least Squares estima...

Non-stationary compositions of Anosov diffeomorphisms

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Stenlund, Mikko

2011-01-01

Motivated by non-equilibrium phenomena in nature, we study dynamical systems whose time-evolution is determined by non-stationary compositions of chaotic maps. The constituent maps are topologically transitive Anosov diffeomorphisms on a two-dimensional compact Riemannian manifold, which are allowed to change with time—slowly, but in a rather arbitrary fashion. In particular, such systems admit no invariant measure. By constructing a coupling, we prove that any two sufficiently regular distributions of the initial state converge exponentially with time. Thus, a system of this kind loses memory of its statistical history rapidly

A comparison of three approaches to non-stationary flood frequency analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Debele, S. E.; Strupczewski, W. G.; Bogdanowicz, E.

2017-08-01

Non-stationary flood frequency analysis (FFA) is applied to statistical analysis of seasonal flow maxima from Polish and Norwegian catchments. Three non-stationary estimation methods, namely, maximum likelihood (ML), two stage (WLS/TS) and GAMLSS (generalized additive model for location, scale and shape parameters), are compared in the context of capturing the effect of non-stationarity on the estimation of time-dependent moments and design quantiles. The use of a multimodel approach is recommended, to reduce the errors due to the model misspecification in the magnitude of quantiles. The results of calculations based on observed seasonal daily flow maxima and computer simulation experiments showed that GAMLSS gave the best results with respect to the relative bias and root mean square error in the estimates of trend in the standard deviation and the constant shape parameter, while WLS/TS provided better accuracy in the estimates of trend in the mean value. Within three compared methods the WLS/TS method is recommended to deal with non-stationarity in short time series. Some practical aspects of the GAMLSS package application are also presented. The detailed discussion of general issues related to consequences of climate change in the FFA is presented in the second part of the article entitled "Around and about an application of the GAMLSS package in non-stationary flood frequency analysis".

A bootstrap invariance principle for highly nonstationary long memory processes

OpenAIRE

Kapetanios, George

2004-01-01

This paper presents an invariance principle for highly nonstationary long memory processes, defined as processes with long memory parameter lying in (1, 1.5). This principle provides the tools for showing asymptotic validity of the bootstrap in the context of such processes.

Mathematical Modeling of Nonstationary Separation Processes in Gas Centrifuge Cascade for Separation of Multicomponent Isotope Mixtures

OpenAIRE

Orlov Alexey; Ushakov Anton; Sovach Victor

2016-01-01

This article presents results of development of the mathematical model of nonstationary separation processes occurring in gas centrifuge cascades for separation of multicomponent isotope mixtures. This model was used for the calculation parameters of gas centrifuge cascade for separation of germanium isotopes. Comparison of obtained values with results of other authors revealed that developed mathematical model is adequate to describe nonstationary separation processes in gas centrifuge casca...

Numerical Clifford Analysis for the Non-stationary Schroedinger Equation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Faustino, N.; Vieira, N.

2007-01-01

We construct a discrete fundamental solution for the parabolic Dirac operator which factorizes the non-stationary Schroedinger operator. With such fundamental solution we construct a discrete counterpart for the Teodorescu and Cauchy-Bitsadze operators and the Bergman projectors. We finalize this paper with convergence results regarding the operators and a concrete numerical example

Deviations from uniform power law scaling in nonstationary time series

Science.gov (United States)

Viswanathan, G. M.; Peng, C. K.; Stanley, H. E.; Goldberger, A. L.

1997-01-01

A classic problem in physics is the analysis of highly nonstationary time series that typically exhibit long-range correlations. Here we test the hypothesis that the scaling properties of the dynamics of healthy physiological systems are more stable than those of pathological systems by studying beat-to-beat fluctuations in the human heart rate. We develop techniques based on the Fano factor and Allan factor functions, as well as on detrended fluctuation analysis, for quantifying deviations from uniform power-law scaling in nonstationary time series. By analyzing extremely long data sets of up to N = 10(5) beats for 11 healthy subjects, we find that the fluctuations in the heart rate scale approximately uniformly over several temporal orders of magnitude. By contrast, we find that in data sets of comparable length for 14 subjects with heart disease, the fluctuations grow erratically, indicating a loss of scaling stability.

Detection of Unusual Events and Trends in Complex Non-Stationary Data Streams

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Perez, Rafael B.; Protopopescu, Vladimir A.; Worley, Brian Addison; Perez, Cristina

2006-01-01

The search for unusual events and trends hidden in multi-component, nonlinear, non-stationary, noisy signals is extremely important for a host of different applications, ranging from nuclear power plant and electric grid operation to internet traffic and implementation of non-proliferation protocols. In the context of this work, we define an unusual event as a local signal disturbance and a trend as a continuous carrier of information added to and different from the underlying baseline dynamics. The goal of this paper is to investigate the feasibility of detecting hidden intermittent events inside non-stationary signal data sets corrupted by high levels of noise, by using the Hilbert-Huang empirical mode decomposition method

Stationary and non-stationary extreme value modeling of extreme temperature in Malaysia

Science.gov (United States)

Hasan, Husna; Salleh, Nur Hanim Mohd; Kassim, Suraiya

2014-09-01

Extreme annual temperature of eighteen stations in Malaysia is fitted to the Generalized Extreme Value distribution. Stationary and non-stationary models with trend are considered for each station and the Likelihood Ratio test is used to determine the best-fitting model. Results show that three out of eighteen stations i.e. Bayan Lepas, Labuan and Subang favor a model which is linear in the location parameter. A hierarchical cluster analysis is employed to investigate the existence of similar behavior among the stations. Three distinct clusters are found in which one of them consists of the stations that favor the non-stationary model. T-year estimated return levels of the extreme temperature are provided based on the chosen models.

Elastic shells of revolution under nonstationary thermal loading using ring finite elements

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yao Zhenhan

1986-01-01

The report deals with the analysis of elastic shells of revolution under nonstationary thermal loading using ring finite elements. First, a ring element for moderately thick shells is derived which should also be employed for thin shells when either higher Fourier components of the displacements, or deflection patterns with very steep gradients occur. Then, a ring element for the analysis of heat conduction in shells of revolution is derived, and algorithms for the numerical solution of linear stationary, nonlinear stationary, as well as linear nonstationary problems are presented. Finally, a ring element for the coupled thermoelastic analysis of shells of revolution is developed, and an algorithm for the solution of weakly coupled problems is given. (orig.) [de

The Fourier decomposition method for nonlinear and non-stationary time series analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Singh, Pushpendra; Joshi, Shiv Dutt; Patney, Rakesh Kumar; Saha, Kaushik

2017-03-01

for many decades, there has been a general perception in the literature that Fourier methods are not suitable for the analysis of nonlinear and non-stationary data. In this paper, we propose a novel and adaptive Fourier decomposition method (FDM), based on the Fourier theory, and demonstrate its efficacy for the analysis of nonlinear and non-stationary time series. The proposed FDM decomposes any data into a small number of 'Fourier intrinsic band functions' (FIBFs). The FDM presents a generalized Fourier expansion with variable amplitudes and variable frequencies of a time series by the Fourier method itself. We propose an idea of zero-phase filter bank-based multivariate FDM (MFDM), for the analysis of multivariate nonlinear and non-stationary time series, using the FDM. We also present an algorithm to obtain cut-off frequencies for MFDM. The proposed MFDM generates a finite number of band-limited multivariate FIBFs (MFIBFs). The MFDM preserves some intrinsic physical properties of the multivariate data, such as scale alignment, trend and instantaneous frequency. The proposed methods provide a time-frequency-energy (TFE) distribution that reveals the intrinsic structure of a data. Numerical computations and simulations have been carried out and comparison is made with the empirical mode decomposition algorithms.

Mathematical modelling of nonstationary processes in a regenerator with dissociating coolant at supercritical parameters

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tashchilova, Eh.M.; Sharovarov, G.A.

1985-01-01

The mathematical model of nonstationary processes in heat exchangers with dissociating coolant at supercritical parameters is given. Its dimensionless criteria are deveped. The effect of NPP regenerator parameters on criteria variation is determined. The proceeding nonstationary processes are estimated qualitatively using the dimensionless parameters. Dynamics of the processes in heat exchangers is described by the energy, mass and moment-of-momentum equations for heating and heated medium taking into account heat accumulation in the heat-transfer wall and distribution of parameters along the length of a heat exchanger

Heisenberg representation for secondary-quantized fields in nonstationary external fields and dielectric nonlinear medium

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lobashev, A.A.; Mostepanenko, V.M.

1993-01-01

Heisenberg formalism is developed for creation-annihilation operators of quantum fields propagating in nonstationary external fields. Quantum fields with spin 0,1/2, 1 are considered in the presence of such external fields as electromagnetic, scalar and the field of nonstationary dielectric properties of nonlinear medium. Elliptic operator parametrically depending on time is constructed. In Heisenberg representation field variables are decomposed over eigenfunction of this operator. The relation between Heisenberg creation-annihilation operators and the operators obtained in the frame of diagonalization of Hamiltonian with Bogoliubov transformations is set up

Self-adaptive change detection in streaming data with non-stationary distribution

KAUST Repository

Zhang, Xiangliang; Wang, Wei

2010-01-01

Non-stationary distribution, in which the data distribution evolves over time, is a common issue in many application fields, e.g., intrusion detection and grid computing. Detecting the changes in massive streaming data with a non

Mathematical model of nonstationary hydraulic processes in gas centrifuge cascade for separation of multicomponent isotope mixtures

OpenAIRE

Orlov, Aleksey Alekseevich; Ushakov, Anton; Sovach, Victor

2017-01-01

The article presents results of development of a mathematical model of nonstationary hydraulic processes in gas centrifuge cascade for separation of multicomponent isotope mixtures. This model was used for the calculation parameters of gas centrifuge cascade for separation of silicon isotopes. Comparison of obtained values with results of other authors revealed that developed mathematical model is adequate to describe nonstationary hydraulic processes in gas centrifuge cascades for separation...

Nonstationary interference and scattering from random media

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nazikian, R.

1991-12-01

For the small angle scattering of coherent plane waves from inhomogeneous random media, the three dimensional mean square distribution of random fluctuations may be recovered from the interferometric detection of the nonstationary modulational structure of the scattered field. Modulational properties of coherent waves scattered from random media are related to nonlocal correlations in the double sideband structure of the Fourier transform of the scattering potential. Such correlations may be expressed in terms of a suitability generalized spectral coherence function for analytic fields

Extended trigonometric Cherednik algebras and nonstationary Schrödinger equations with delta-potentials

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hartwig, J. T.; Stokman, J. V.

2013-01-01

We realize an extended version of the trigonometric Cherednik algebra as affine Dunkl operators involving Heaviside functions. We use the quadratic Casimir element of the extended trigonometric Cherednik algebra to define an explicit nonstationary Schrödinger equation with delta-potential. We use coordinate Bethe ansatz methods to construct solutions of the nonstationary Schrödinger equation in terms of generalized Bethe wave functions. It is shown that the generalized Bethe wave functions satisfy affine difference Knizhnik-Zamolodchikov equations as functions of the momenta. The relation to the vector valued root system analogs of the quantum Bose gas on the circle with delta-function interactions is indicated.

A location-based multiple point statistics method: modelling the reservoir with non-stationary characteristics

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yin Yanshu

2017-12-01

Full Text Available In this paper, a location-based multiple point statistics method is developed to model a non-stationary reservoir. The proposed method characterizes the relationship between the sedimentary pattern and the deposit location using the relative central position distance function, which alleviates the requirement that the training image and the simulated grids have the same dimension. The weights in every direction of the distance function can be changed to characterize the reservoir heterogeneity in various directions. The local integral replacements of data events, structured random path, distance tolerance and multi-grid strategy are applied to reproduce the sedimentary patterns and obtain a more realistic result. This method is compared with the traditional Snesim method using a synthesized 3-D training image of Poyang Lake and a reservoir model of Shengli Oilfield in China. The results indicate that the new method can reproduce the non-stationary characteristics better than the traditional method and is more suitable for simulation of delta-front deposits. These results show that the new method is a powerful tool for modelling a reservoir with non-stationary characteristics.

Condition Monitoring of Machinery in Non-Stationary Operations : Proceedings of the Second International Conference "Condition Monitoring of Machinery in Non-Stationnary Operations"

CERN Document Server

Bartelmus, Walter; Chaari, Fakher; Zimroz, Radoslaw; Haddar, Mohamed

2012-01-01

Condition monitoring of machines in non-stationary operations (CMMNO) can be seen as the major challenge for research in the field of machinery diagnostics. Condition monitoring of machines in non-stationary operations is the title of the presented book and the title of the Conference held in Hammamet - Tunisia March 26 – 28, 2012. It is the second conference under this title, first took place in Wroclaw - Poland , March 2011. The subject CMMNO comes directly from industry needs and observation of real objects. Most monitored and diagnosed objects used in industry works in non-stationary operations condition. The non-stationary operations come from fulfillment of machinery tasks, for which they are designed for. All machinery used in different kind of mines, transport systems, vehicles like: cars, buses etc, helicopters, ships and battleships and so on work in non-stationary operations. The papers included in the book are shaped by the organizing board of the conference and authors of the papers. The papers...

Testing for Co-integration in Vector Autoregressions with Non-Stationary Volatility

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Cavaliere, Guiseppe; Rahbæk, Anders; Taylor, A.M. Robert

Many key macro-economic and financial variables are characterised by permanent changes in unconditional volatility. In this paper we analyse vector autoregressions with non-stationary (unconditional) volatility of a very general form, which includes single and multiple volatility breaks as special...

Noise/spike detection in phonocardiogram signal as a cyclic random process with non-stationary period interval.

Science.gov (United States)

Naseri, H; Homaeinezhad, M R; Pourkhajeh, H

2013-09-01

The major aim of this study is to describe a unified procedure for detecting noisy segments and spikes in transduced signals with a cyclic but non-stationary periodic nature. According to this procedure, the cycles of the signal (onset and offset locations) are detected. Then, the cycles are clustered into a finite number of groups based on appropriate geometrical- and frequency-based time series. Next, the median template of each time series of each cluster is calculated. Afterwards, a correlation-based technique is devised for making a comparison between a test cycle feature and the associated time series of each cluster. Finally, by applying a suitably chosen threshold for the calculated correlation values, a segment is prescribed to be either clean or noisy. As a key merit of this research, the procedure can introduce a decision support for choosing accurately orthogonal-expansion-based filtering or to remove noisy segments. In this paper, the application procedure of the proposed method is comprehensively described by applying it to phonocardiogram (PCG) signals for finding noisy cycles. The database consists of 126 records from several patients of a domestic research station acquired by a 3M Littmann(®) 3200, 4KHz sampling frequency electronic stethoscope. By implementing the noisy segments detection algorithm with this database, a sensitivity of Se=91.41% and a positive predictive value, PPV=92.86% were obtained based on physicians assessments. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Network simulation of nonstationary ionic transport through liquid junctions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Castilla, J.; Horno, J.

1993-01-01

Nonstationary ionic transport across the liquid junctions has been studied using Network Thermodynamics. A network model for the time-dependent Nernst-Plack-Poisson system of equation is proposed. With this network model and the electrical circuit simulation program PSPICE, the concentrations, charge density, and electrical potentials, at short times, have been simulated for the binary system NaCl/NaCl. (Author) 13 refs

A Non-Stationary Approach for Estimating Future Hydroclimatic Extremes Using Monte-Carlo Simulation

Science.gov (United States)

Byun, K.; Hamlet, A. F.

2017-12-01

There is substantial evidence that observed hydrologic extremes (e.g. floods, extreme stormwater events, and low flows) are changing and that climate change will continue to alter the probability distributions of hydrologic extremes over time. These non-stationary risks imply that conventional approaches for designing hydrologic infrastructure (or making other climate-sensitive decisions) based on retrospective analysis and stationary statistics will become increasingly problematic through time. To develop a framework for assessing risks in a non-stationary environment our study develops a new approach using a super ensemble of simulated hydrologic extremes based on Monte Carlo (MC) methods. Specifically, using statistically downscaled future GCM projections from the CMIP5 archive (using the Hybrid Delta (HD) method), we extract daily precipitation (P) and temperature (T) at 1/16 degree resolution based on a group of moving 30-yr windows within a given design lifespan (e.g. 10, 25, 50-yr). Using these T and P scenarios we simulate daily streamflow using the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model for each year of the design lifespan and fit a Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) probability distribution to the simulated annual extremes. MC experiments are then used to construct a random series of 10,000 realizations of the design lifespan, estimating annual extremes using the estimated unique GEV parameters for each individual year of the design lifespan. Our preliminary results for two watersheds in Midwest show that there are considerable differences in the extreme values for a given percentile between conventional MC and non-stationary MC approach. Design standards based on our non-stationary approach are also directly dependent on the design lifespan of infrastructure, a sensitivity which is notably absent from conventional approaches based on retrospective analysis. The experimental approach can be applied to a wide range of hydroclimatic variables of interest.

Mathematical Modeling of Nonstationary Separation Processes in Gas Centrifuge Cascade for Separation of Multicomponent Isotope Mixtures

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Orlov Alexey

2016-01-01

Full Text Available This article presents results of development of the mathematical model of nonstationary separation processes occurring in gas centrifuge cascades for separation of multicomponent isotope mixtures. This model was used for the calculation parameters of gas centrifuge cascade for separation of germanium isotopes. Comparison of obtained values with results of other authors revealed that developed mathematical model is adequate to describe nonstationary separation processes in gas centrifuge cascades for separation of multicomponent isotope mixtures.

Optimizing a Military Supply Chain in the Presence of Random, Non-Stationary Demands

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

Yew

2003-01-01

... logistics supply chain that satisfies uncertain, non-stationary demands, while taking into account the volatility and singularity of military operations This research focuses on the development...

AUTOMATIC CONTROL OF PARAMETERS OF A NON-STATIONARY OBJECT WITH CROSS LINKS

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

A. Pavlov

2018-04-01

Full Text Available Many objects automatic control unsteady. This is manifested in the change of their parameters. Therefore, periodically adjust the required parameters of the controller. This work is usually carried out rarely. For a long time, regulators are working with is not the optimal settings. The consequence of this is the low quality of many industrial control systems. The solution problem is the use of robust controllers. ACS with traditional PI and PID controllers have a very limited range of normal operation modes due to the appearance of parametric disturbances due to changes in the characteristics of the automated unit and changes in the load on it. The situation is different when using in the architecture of artificial neural network controllers. It is known that when training a neural network, the adaptation procedure is often used. This makes it possible to greatly expand the area of normal operating modes of ACS with neural automatic regulators in comparison with traditional linear regulators. It is also possible to significantly improve the quality of control (especially for a non-stationary multidimensional object, provided that when designing the ACS at the stage of its simulation in the model of the regulatory object model, an adequate simulation model of the executive device. It is also possible to significantly improve the quality of control (especially for a non-stationary multidimensional regulatory object model, an adequate simulation model of the executive device. Especially actual implementation of all these requirements in the application of electric actuators. This article fully complies with these requirements. This is what makes it possible to provide a guaranteed quality of control in non-stationary ACS with multidimensional objects and cross-links between control channels. The possibility of using a known hybrid automatic regulator to stabilize the parameters of a two-channel non-stationary object with two cross-linked. A

EDITORIAL: CAMOP: Quantum Non-Stationary Systems CAMOP: Quantum Non-Stationary Systems

Science.gov (United States)

Dodonov, Victor V.; Man'ko, Margarita A.

2010-09-01

Although time-dependent quantum systems have been studied since the very beginning of quantum mechanics, they continue to attract the attention of many researchers, and almost every decade new important discoveries or new fields of application are made. Among the impressive results or by-products of these studies, one should note the discovery of the path integral method in the 1940s, coherent and squeezed states in the 1960-70s, quantum tunneling in Josephson contacts and SQUIDs in the 1960s, the theory of time-dependent quantum invariants in the 1960-70s, different forms of quantum master equations in the 1960-70s, the Zeno effect in the 1970s, the concept of geometric phase in the 1980s, decoherence of macroscopic superpositions in the 1980s, quantum non-demolition measurements in the 1980s, dynamics of particles in quantum traps and cavity QED in the 1980-90s, and time-dependent processes in mesoscopic quantum devices in the 1990s. All these topics continue to be the subject of many publications. Now we are witnessing a new wave of interest in quantum non-stationary systems in different areas, from cosmology (the very first moments of the Universe) and quantum field theory (particle pair creation in ultra-strong fields) to elementary particle physics (neutrino oscillations). A rapid increase in the number of theoretical and experimental works on time-dependent phenomena is also observed in quantum optics, quantum information theory and condensed matter physics. Time-dependent tunneling and time-dependent transport in nano-structures are examples of such phenomena. Another emerging direction of study, stimulated by impressive progress in experimental techniques, is related to attempts to observe the quantum behavior of macroscopic objects, such as mirrors interacting with quantum fields in nano-resonators. Quantum effects manifest themselves in the dynamics of nano-electromechanical systems; they are dominant in the quite new and very promising field of circuit

Testing for Co-integration in Vector Autoregressions with Non-Stationary Volatility

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Cavaliere, Giuseppe; Rahbek, Anders Christian; Taylor, A. M. Robert

Many key macro-economic and …nancial variables are characterised by permanent changes in unconditional volatility. In this paper we analyse vector autoregressions with non-stationary (unconditional) volatility of a very general form, which includes single and multiple volatility breaks as special...

Evaluation of the Methods for Response Analysis under Non-Stationary Excitation

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

R.S. Jangid

1999-01-01

Full Text Available Response of structures to non-stationary ground motion can be obtained either by the evolutionary spectral analysis or by the Markov approach. In certain conditions, a quasi-stationary analysis can also be performed. The first two methods of analysis are difficult to apply for complex situations such as problems involving soil-structure interaction, non-classical damping and primary-secondary structure interaction. The quasi-stationary analysis, on the other hand, provides an easier solution procedure for such cases. Here-in, the effectiveness of the quasi-stationary analysis is examined with the help of the analysis of a single degree-of-freedom (SDOF system under a set of parametric variations. For this purpose, responses of the SDOF system to uniformly modulated non-stationary random ground excitation are obtained by the three methods and they are compared. In addition, the relative computational efforts for different methods are also investigated.

Fermat principle for a nonstationary medium.

Science.gov (United States)

Voronovich, A G; Godin, O A

2003-07-25

One possible formulation of a variational principle of the Fermat type for systems with time-dependent parameters is suggested. In a stationary case, it reduces to the Mopertui-Lagrange least-action principle. A class of Hamiltonians (dispersion relations) is indicated, for which the variational principle reduces to the Fermat principle in a general nonstationary case. Hamiltonians that are homogeneous functions of momenta are in this category. For the important case of nondispersive waves (corresponding to Hamiltonians being homogeneous function of momenta order 1) the Fermat principle fully determines the geometry of the rays. Equations relating the variation of signal frequency with the rate of change of propagation time are established.

The approximate thermal-model-testing method for non-stationary temperature fields in central zones of fast reactor assemblies

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mikhin, V.I.; Matukhin, N.M.

2000-01-01

The approach to generalization of the non-stationary heat exchange data for the central zones of the nuclear reactor fuel assemblies and the approximate thermal-model-testing criteria are proposed. The fuel assemblies of fast and water-cooled reactors with different fuel compositions have been investigated. The reason of the non-stationary heat exchange is the fuel-energy-release time dependence. (author)

On structural identifiability analysis of the cascaded linear dynamic systems in isotopically non-stationary 13C labelling experiments.

Science.gov (United States)

Lin, Weilu; Wang, Zejian; Huang, Mingzhi; Zhuang, Yingping; Zhang, Siliang

2018-06-01

The isotopically non-stationary 13C labelling experiments, as an emerging experimental technique, can estimate the intracellular fluxes of the cell culture under an isotopic transient period. However, to the best of our knowledge, the issue of the structural identifiability analysis of non-stationary isotope experiments is not well addressed in the literature. In this work, the local structural identifiability analysis for non-stationary cumomer balance equations is conducted based on the Taylor series approach. The numerical rank of the Jacobian matrices of the finite extended time derivatives of the measured fractions with respect to the free parameters is taken as the criterion. It turns out that only one single time point is necessary to achieve the structural identifiability analysis of the cascaded linear dynamic system of non-stationary isotope experiments. The equivalence between the local structural identifiability of the cascaded linear dynamic systems and the local optimum condition of the nonlinear least squares problem is elucidated in the work. Optimal measurements sets can then be determined for the metabolic network. Two simulated metabolic networks are adopted to demonstrate the utility of the proposed method. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Introduction and application of non-stationary standardized precipitation index considering probability distribution function and return period

Science.gov (United States)

Park, Junehyeong; Sung, Jang Hyun; Lim, Yoon-Jin; Kang, Hyun-Suk

2018-05-01

The widely used meteorological drought index, the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), basically assumes stationarity, but recent changes in the climate have led to a need to review this hypothesis. In this study, a new non-stationary SPI that considers not only the modified probability distribution parameter but also the return period under the non-stationary process was proposed. The results were evaluated for two severe drought cases during the last 10 years in South Korea. As a result, SPIs considered that the non-stationary hypothesis underestimated the drought severity than the stationary SPI despite that these past two droughts were recognized as significantly severe droughts. It may be caused by that the variances of summer and autumn precipitation become larger over time then it can make the probability distribution wider than before. This implies that drought expressions by statistical index such as SPI can be distorted by stationary assumption and cautious approach is needed when deciding drought level considering climate changes.

Nonstationary stochastic charge fluctuations of a dust particle in plasmas.

Science.gov (United States)

Shotorban, B

2011-06-01

Stochastic charge fluctuations of a dust particle that are due to discreteness of electrons and ions in plasmas can be described by a one-step process master equation [T. Matsoukas and M. Russell, J. Appl. Phys. 77, 4285 (1995)] with no exact solution. In the present work, using the system size expansion method of Van Kampen along with the linear noise approximation, a Fokker-Planck equation with an exact Gaussian solution is developed by expanding the master equation. The Gaussian solution has time-dependent mean and variance governed by two ordinary differential equations modeling the nonstationary process of dust particle charging. The model is tested via the comparison of its results to the results obtained by solving the master equation numerically. The electron and ion currents are calculated through the orbital motion limited theory. At various times of the nonstationary process of charging, the model results are in a very good agreement with the master equation results. The deviation is more significant when the standard deviation of the charge is comparable to the mean charge in magnitude.

A note on the almost sure central limit theorems for the maxima of strongly dependent nonstationary Gaussian vector sequences

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Xiang Zeng

2016-06-01

Full Text Available Abstract We prove some almost sure central limit theorems for the maxima of strongly dependent nonstationary Gaussian vector sequences under some mild conditions. The results extend the ASCLT to nonstationary Gaussian vector sequences and give substantial improvements for the weight sequence obtained by Lin et al. (Comput. Math. Appl. 62(2:635-640, 2011.

Numerical simulation of nonstationary dissipative structures in 3D double-diffusive convection at large Rayleigh numbers

Science.gov (United States)

Kozitskiy, Sergey

2018-05-01

Numerical simulation of nonstationary dissipative structures in 3D double-diffusive convection has been performed by using the previously derived system of complex Ginzburg-Landau type amplitude equations, valid in a neighborhood of Hopf bifurcation points. Simulation has shown that the state of spatiotemporal chaos develops in the system. It has the form of nonstationary structures that depend on the parameters of the system. The shape of structures does not depend on the initial conditions, and a limited number of spectral components participate in their formation.

Quantum Radiation Properties of Dirac Particles in General Nonstationary Black Holes

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jia-Chen Hua

2014-01-01

Full Text Available Quantum radiation properties of Dirac particles in general nonstationary black holes in the general case are investigated by both using the method of generalized tortoise coordinate transformation and considering simultaneously the asymptotic behaviors of the first-order and second-order forms of Dirac equation near the event horizon. It is generally shown that the temperature and the shape of the event horizon of this kind of black holes depend on both the time and different angles. Further, we give a general expression of the new extra coupling effect in thermal radiation spectrum of Dirac particles which is absent from the thermal radiation spectrum of scalar particles. Also, we reveal a relationship that is ignored before between thermal radiation and nonthermal radiation in the case of scalar particles, which is that the chemical potential in thermal radiation spectrum is equal to the highest energy of the negative energy state of scalar particles in nonthermal radiation for general nonstationary black holes.

Climate variability and nonstationary dynamics of Mycoplasma pneumoniae pneumonia in Japan.

Science.gov (United States)

Onozuka, Daisuke; Chaves, Luis Fernando

2014-01-01

A stationary association between climate factors and epidemics of Mycoplasma pneumoniae (M. pneumoniae) pneumonia has been widely assumed. However, it is unclear whether elements of the local climate that are relevant to M. pneumoniae pneumonia transmission have stationary signatures of climate factors on their dynamics over different time scales. We performed a cross-wavelet coherency analysis to assess the patterns of association between monthly M. pneumoniae cases in Fukuoka, Japan, from 2000 to 2012 and indices for the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Monthly M. pneumoniae cases were strongly associated with the dynamics of both the IOD and ENSO for the 1-2-year periodic mode in 2005-2007 and 2010-2011. This association was non-stationary and appeared to have a major influence on the synchrony of M. pneumoniae epidemics. Our results call for the consideration of non-stationary, possibly non-linear, patterns of association between M. pneumoniae cases and climatic factors in early warning systems.

A regional and nonstationary model for partial duration series of extreme rainfall

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Gregersen, Ida Bülow; Madsen, Henrik; Rosbjerg, Dan

2017-01-01

as the explanatory variables in the regional and temporal domain, respectively. Further analysis of partial duration series with nonstationary and regional thresholds shows that the mean exceedances also exhibit a significant variation in space and time for some rainfall durations, while the shape parameter is found...... of extreme rainfall. The framework is built on a partial duration series approach with a nonstationary, regional threshold value. The model is based on generalized linear regression solved by generalized estimation equations. It allows a spatial correlation between the stations in the network and accounts...... furthermore for variable observation periods at each station and in each year. Marginal regional and temporal regression models solved by generalized least squares are used to validate and discuss the results of the full spatiotemporal model. The model is applied on data from a large Danish rain gauge network...

Stochastic optimal control of non-stationary response of a single-degree-of-freedom vehicle model

Science.gov (United States)

Narayanan, S.; Raju, G. V.

1990-09-01

An active suspension system to control the non-stationary response of a single-degree-of-freedom (sdf) vehicle model with variable velocity traverse over a rough road is investigated. The suspension is optimized with respect to ride comfort and road holding, using stochastic optimal control theory. The ground excitation is modelled as a spatial homogeneous random process, being the output of a linear shaping filter to white noise. The effect of the rolling contact of the tyre is considered by an additional filter in cascade. The non-stationary response with active suspension is compared with that of a passive system.

Asymptotic Theory for the QMLE in GARCH-X Models with Stationary and Non-Stationary Covariates

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Han, Heejoon; Kristensen, Dennis

as captured by its long-memory parameter dx; in particular, we allow for both stationary and non-stationary covariates. We show that the QMLE'’s of the regression coefficients entering the volatility equation are consistent and normally distributed in large samples independently of the degree of persistence....... This implies that standard inferential tools, such as t-statistics, do not have to be adjusted to the level of persistence. On the other hand, the intercept in the volatility equation is not identifi…ed when the covariate is non-stationary which is akin to the results of Jensen and Rahbek (2004, Econometric...

Radiation of light impurities in a nonstationary plasma

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Abramov, V.A.; Krotova, G.I.

1984-01-01

In the framework of a nonstationary coronal model with account for latest data on elementary process cross sections calculations of oxygen radiation power are performed. It is shown that taking into account electron temperature nonstationarity characteristic of the initial stage in nowadays tokamaks, line emission power in the principal maximum region (Tsub(e) approximately 40 eV) changes but slightly, whereas the radiation power in the second maximum (Tsub(e) approximately 100 eV increases approximately 20 times as compared with stationary values

On the dynamics of non-stationary binary stellar systems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bekov, A. A.; Bejsekov, A.N.; Aldibaeva, L.T.

2005-01-01

The motion of test body in the external gravitational field of the binary stellar system with slowly variable some physical parameters of radiating components is considered on the base of restricted non-stationary photo-gravitational three and two bodies problem. The family of polar and coplanar solutions are obtained. These solutions give the possibility of the dynamical and structure interpretation of the binary young evolving stars and galaxies. (author)

Microwave Heating of a Liquid Stably Flowing in a Circular Channel Under the Conditions of Nonstationary Radiative-Convective Heat Transfer

Science.gov (United States)

Salomatov, V. V.; Puzyrev, E. M.; Salomatov, A. V.

2018-05-01

A class of nonlinear problems of nonstationary radiative-convective heat transfer under the microwave action with a small penetration depth is considered in a stabilized coolant flow in a circular channel. The solutions to these problems are obtained, using asymptotic procedures at the stages of nonstationary and stationary convective heat transfer on the heat-radiating channel surface. The nonstationary and stationary stages of the solution are matched, using the "longitudinal coordinate-time" characteristic. The approximate solutions constructed on such principles correlate reliably with the exact ones at the limiting values of the operation parameters, as well as with numerical and experimental data of other researchers. An important advantage of these solutions is that they allow the determination of the main regularities of the microwave and thermal radiation influence on convective heat transfer in a channel even before performing cumbersome calculations. It is shown that, irrespective of the heat exchange regime (nonstationary or stationary), the Nusselt number decreases and the rate of the surface temperature change increases with increase in the intensity of thermal action.

Recovery and deformation substructures of zircaloy-4 in high temperature plasticity under stationary or non-stationary stress

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bocek, M.; Armas, I.

1982-01-01

It was the aim of the present investigation to examine how the recovery rate in creep is influenced by a non-stationary stress. For purposes of phenomenological analysis it is postulated that, irrespective of whether the applied stress is stationary or not, for large strains the mean internal stress sigmasub(i) approaches a stationary value sigmasub(i,s). The stationary recovery rate Rsub(s) for constant load creep turns out be governed by the applied stress indicating that the recovery mechanism is dynamic in nature. For sigma-ramp loading, Rsub(s) is dependent on the stress rate sigma. In tensional stress cycling, Rsub(s) is governed by the maximum stress sigmasub(M) and is also dependent on the ratio of sigmasub(M) to the minimum stress sigma 0 . TEM examination of Zircaloy-4 specimens crept at 800 0 C at constant and cycling load respectively could not reveal any differences in the deformation substructure for the two loading types. Subgrain formation did not appear, individual dislocations were observed only rarely. However, typical networks were formed as well as pileups which perhaps are responsible for the back stress in high temperature plasticity (HTP). (orig.)

Nonstationary oscillations in gyrotrons revisited

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dumbrajs, O.; Kalis, H.

2015-01-01

Development of gyrotrons requires careful understanding of different regimes of gyrotron oscillations. It is known that in the planes of the generalized gyrotron variables: cyclotron resonance mismatch and dimensionless current or cyclotron resonance mismatch and dimensionless interaction length complicated alternating sequences of regions of stationary, periodic, automodulation, and chaotic oscillations exist. In the past, these regions were investigated on the supposition that the transit time of electrons through the interaction space is much shorter than the cavity decay time. This assumption is valid for short and/or high diffraction quality resonators. However, in the case of long and/or low diffraction quality resonators, which are often utilized, this assumption is no longer valid. In such a case, a different mathematical formalism has to be used for studying nonstationary oscillations. One example of such a formalism is described in the present paper

Temporal associations of life with solar and geophysical activity

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

T. K. Breus

Full Text Available In biology, circadian rhythms with a period of one cycle in 20–28 h are known to be ubiquitous and partly endogenous. Rhythms with a frequency lower than one cycle per day are called 'infradian rhythms'. Among them are components with one cycle in about 3.5, 7, 14 and 28 days, the multiseptans, which, like the circadians, must be regarded as a general characteristic of life: they characterize unicells as well as much more differentiated organisms. We hypothesize that heliogeophysical factors other than the solar visible light, held responsible for the evolution of circadian periodicity, underlie the infradian rhythms of biosystems. The periodicities in the solar wind and variations in the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF which are associated with the solar rotation are very similar in length to the biological periodicities. We investigate the temporal relations of variations in solar activity and in biological systems to test associations between events in the IMF, in geomagnetic disturbance, in myocardial infarction and in physiology. By cross-spectral analysis, we also find relations at certain frequencies between changes in human physiology on the one hand, and (1 the vertical component of the induction vector of the IMF, B_z, and (2 a global index of geomagnetic disturbance, Kp, on the other hand. We wish to stimulate interest in these periodicities of both biological systems and geophysical endpoints among physicists and biologists alike, so that problems relevant to clinicians and other biologists, including evolutionists, are eventually solved by their cooperation with the geophysical community.

Instantaneous Transfer Entropy for the Study of Cardiovascular and Cardiorespiratory Nonstationary Dynamics.

Science.gov (United States)

Valenza, Gaetano; Faes, Luca; Citi, Luca; Orini, Michele; Barbieri, Riccardo

2018-05-01

Measures of transfer entropy (TE) quantify the direction and strength of coupling between two complex systems. Standard approaches assume stationarity of the observations, and therefore are unable to track time-varying changes in nonlinear information transfer with high temporal resolution. In this study, we aim to define and validate novel instantaneous measures of TE to provide an improved assessment of complex nonstationary cardiorespiratory interactions. We here propose a novel instantaneous point-process TE (ipTE) and validate its assessment as applied to cardiovascular and cardiorespiratory dynamics. In particular, heartbeat and respiratory dynamics are characterized through discrete time series, and modeled with probability density functions predicting the time of the next physiological event as a function of the past history. Likewise, nonstationary interactions between heartbeat and blood pressure dynamics are characterized as well. Furthermore, we propose a new measure of information transfer, the instantaneous point-process information transfer (ipInfTr), which is directly derived from point-process-based definitions of the Kolmogorov-Smirnov distance. Analysis on synthetic data, as well as on experimental data gathered from healthy subjects undergoing postural changes confirms that ipTE, as well as ipInfTr measures are able to dynamically track changes in physiological systems coupling. This novel approach opens new avenues in the study of hidden, transient, nonstationary physiological states involving multivariate autonomic dynamics in cardiovascular health and disease. The proposed method can also be tailored for the study of complex multisystem physiology (e.g., brain-heart or, more in general, brain-body interactions).

Numerical methods for realizing nonstationary Poisson processes with piecewise-constant instantaneous-rate functions

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Harrod, Steven; Kelton, W. David

2006-01-01

Nonstationary Poisson processes are appropriate in many applications, including disease studies, transportation, finance, and social policy. The authors review the risks of ignoring nonstationarity in Poisson processes and demonstrate three algorithms for generation of Poisson processes...

Optimal inventory policies with non-stationary supply disruptions and advance supply information

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Atasoy, B.; Güllü, R.; Tan, T.

2012-01-01

We consider the production/inventory problem of a manufacturer (or a retailer) under non-stationary and stochastic supply availability. Although supply availability is uncertain, the supplier would be able to predict her near future shortages – and hence supply disruption to (some of) her customers

Optimal inventory policies with non-stationary supply disruptions and advance supply information

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Atasoy, B.; Güllü, R.; Tan, T.

2011-01-01

We consider the production/inventory problem of a manufacturer (or a retailer) under non-stationary and stochastic supply availability. Although supply availability is uncertain, the supplier would be able to predict her near future shortages -and hence supply disruption to (some of) her customers-

Performance of a written radiation protection inspection of nonstationary gamma radiography users

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hoehne, M.

1986-01-01

A questionare has been developed for controlling users of nonstationary gamma radiography devices. It is aimed at obtaining information about the weak points according to radiation protection and to give guidance in performing such controls by the respective radiation protection officers. The questionare is included

Incremental learning of concept drift in nonstationary environments.

Science.gov (United States)

Elwell, Ryan; Polikar, Robi

2011-10-01

We introduce an ensemble of classifiers-based approach for incremental learning of concept drift, characterized by nonstationary environments (NSEs), where the underlying data distributions change over time. The proposed algorithm, named Learn(++). NSE, learns from consecutive batches of data without making any assumptions on the nature or rate of drift; it can learn from such environments that experience constant or variable rate of drift, addition or deletion of concept classes, as well as cyclical drift. The algorithm learns incrementally, as other members of the Learn(++) family of algorithms, that is, without requiring access to previously seen data. Learn(++). NSE trains one new classifier for each batch of data it receives, and combines these classifiers using a dynamically weighted majority voting. The novelty of the approach is in determining the voting weights, based on each classifier's time-adjusted accuracy on current and past environments. This approach allows the algorithm to recognize, and act accordingly, to the changes in underlying data distributions, as well as to a possible reoccurrence of an earlier distribution. We evaluate the algorithm on several synthetic datasets designed to simulate a variety of nonstationary environments, as well as a real-world weather prediction dataset. Comparisons with several other approaches are also included. Results indicate that Learn(++). NSE can track the changing environments very closely, regardless of the type of concept drift. To allow future use, comparison and benchmarking by interested researchers, we also release our data used in this paper. © 2011 IEEE

Expanding the experience of using non-stationary waterflooding technology with changing direction of the filtration flow in the example of the Northern Buzachi field

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

E.M. Almukhametova

2018-06-01

Full Text Available Abstract. The last few years, work has been carried out to study the effectiveness of non-stationary exposure in the highly viscous oil field Northern Buzachi (Republic of Kazakhstan. It has been proved that this technology is quite effective in the development of highly viscous oil reservoirs, however, in order to constantly maintain high technological effect, a constant modification of this technology is required, since it has a characteristic feature of rapid «aging». Further search for the conditions of effective application of non-stationary exposure on highly-viscous oil deposits can be carried out in two directions: the implementation of non-stationary exposure in new areas with other reservoir parameters and the change in the parameters of non-stationary exposure technology (including combining with other technologies in areas where this technology is already in use. Both approaches are used on the Northern Buzachi field. Thus, the positive experience of using non-stationary waterflooding in combination with changing direction of the filtration flow in the section of the seventh block of the Northern Buzachi field allowed us to recommend new sites for the implementation of this technology. With the participation of the author of this work, a non-stationary waterflooding program was developed and implemented on the site of the sixth block (south of the first operational facility.

Climate variability and nonstationary dynamics of Mycoplasma pneumoniae pneumonia in Japan.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Daisuke Onozuka

Full Text Available BACKGROUND: A stationary association between climate factors and epidemics of Mycoplasma pneumoniae (M. pneumoniae pneumonia has been widely assumed. However, it is unclear whether elements of the local climate that are relevant to M. pneumoniae pneumonia transmission have stationary signatures of climate factors on their dynamics over different time scales. METHODS: We performed a cross-wavelet coherency analysis to assess the patterns of association between monthly M. pneumoniae cases in Fukuoka, Japan, from 2000 to 2012 and indices for the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD and El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO. RESULTS: Monthly M. pneumoniae cases were strongly associated with the dynamics of both the IOD and ENSO for the 1-2-year periodic mode in 2005-2007 and 2010-2011. This association was non-stationary and appeared to have a major influence on the synchrony of M. pneumoniae epidemics. CONCLUSIONS: Our results call for the consideration of non-stationary, possibly non-linear, patterns of association between M. pneumoniae cases and climatic factors in early warning systems.

An Integrated Real-Time Beamforming and Postfiltering System for Nonstationary Noise Environments

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Gannot Sharon

2003-01-01

Full Text Available We present a novel approach for real-time multichannel speech enhancement in environments of nonstationary noise and time-varying acoustical transfer functions (ATFs. The proposed system integrates adaptive beamforming, ATF identification, soft signal detection, and multichannel postfiltering. The noise canceller branch of the beamformer and the ATF identification are adaptively updated online, based on hypothesis test results. The noise canceller is updated only during stationary noise frames, and the ATF identification is carried out only when desired source components have been detected. The hypothesis testing is based on the nonstationarity of the signals and the transient power ratio between the beamformer primary output and its reference noise signals. Following the beamforming and the hypothesis testing, estimates for the signal presence probability and for the noise power spectral density are derived. Subsequently, an optimal spectral gain function that minimizes the mean square error of the log-spectral amplitude (LSA is applied. Experimental results demonstrate the usefulness of the proposed system in nonstationary noise environments.

On the Oracle Property of the Adaptive LASSO in Stationary and Nonstationary Autoregressions

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kock, Anders Bredahl

We show that the Adaptive LASSO is oracle efficient in stationary and non-stationary autoregressions. This means that it estimates parameters consistently, selects the correct sparsity pattern, and estimates the coefficients belonging to the relevant variables at the same asymptotic efficiency...

A flag-up algorithm and test for nonstationary customer-specific product graphs

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Fenger, Morten H. J.; Scholderer, Joachim

period. The results show that the test is clearly able to identify customers with evolving behavior, and that it can easily be deployed as part of a CRM system. It enables companies with loyalty programs to focus on nonstationary customers, i.e. customers who may represent opportunities for cross...

Tracking of Nonstationary Noise Based on Data-Driven Recursive Noise Power Estimation

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Erkelens, J.S.; Heusdens, R.

2008-01-01

This paper considers estimation of the noise spectral variance from speech signals contaminated by highly nonstationary noise sources. The method can accurately track fast changes in noise power level (up to about 10 dB/s). In each time frame, for each frequency bin, the noise variance estimate is

Double-Wavelet Approach to Studying the Modulation Properties of Nonstationary Multimode Dynamics

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Sosnovtseva, Olga; Mosekilde, Erik; Pavlov, A.N.

2005-01-01

On the basis of double-wavelet analysis, the paper proposes a method to study interactions in the form of frequency and amplitude modulation in nonstationary multimode data series. Special emphasis is given to the problem of quantifying the strength of modulation for a fast signal by a coexisting...

Nonstationary heat flow in the piston of the turbocharged engine

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Piotr GUSTOF

2010-01-01

Full Text Available In this study the numeric computations of nonstationary heat flow in form of temperature distribution on characteristic surfaces of the piston of the turbocharged engine at the beginning phase its work was presented. The computations were performed for fragmentary load engine by means of the two-zone combustion model, the boundary conditions of III kind and the finite elements method (FEM by using of COSMOS/M program.

Regime shifts under forcing of non-stationary attractors: Conceptual model and case studies in hydrologic systems.

Science.gov (United States)

Park, Jeryang; Rao, P Suresh C

2014-11-15

We present here a conceptual model and analysis of complex systems using hypothetical cases of regime shifts resulting from temporal non-stationarity in attractor strengths, and then present selected published cases to illustrate such regime shifts in hydrologic systems (shallow aquatic ecosystems; water table shifts; soil salinization). Complex systems are dynamic and can exist in two or more stable states (or regimes). Temporal variations in state variables occur in response to fluctuations in external forcing, which are modulated by interactions among internal processes. Combined effects of external forcing and non-stationary strengths of alternative attractors can lead to shifts from original to alternate regimes. In systems with bi-stable states, when the strengths of two competing attractors are constant in time, or are non-stationary but change in a linear fashion, regime shifts are found to be temporally stationary and only controlled by the characteristics of the external forcing. However, when attractor strengths change in time non-linearly or vary stochastically, regime shifts in complex systems are characterized by non-stationary probability density functions (pdfs). We briefly discuss implications and challenges to prediction and management of hydrologic complex systems. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Staffing a call center with uncertain non-stationary arrival rate and flexibility

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Liao, S.; van Delft, C.; Jouini, O.; Koole, G.M.

2012-01-01

We consider a multi-period staffing problem in a single-shift call center. The call center handles inbound calls, as well as some alternative back-office jobs. The call arrival process is assumed to follow a doubly non-stationary stochastic process with a random mean arrival rate. The inbound calls

Isotopically nonstationary metabolic flux analysis (INST-MFA) of photosynthesis and photorespiration in plants

Science.gov (United States)

Photorespiration is a central component of photosynthesis; however to better understand its role it should be viewed in the context of an integrated metabolic network rather than a series of individual reactions that operate independently. Isotopically nonstationary 13C metabolic flux analysis (INST...

Non-stationary flood frequency analysis in continental Spanish rivers, using climate and reservoir indices as external covariates

Science.gov (United States)

López, J.; Francés, F.

2013-08-01

Recent evidences of the impact of persistent modes of regional climate variability, coupled with the intensification of human activities, have led hydrologists to study flood regime without applying the hypothesis of stationarity. In this study, a framework for flood frequency analysis is developed on the basis of a tool that enables us to address the modelling of non-stationary time series, namely, the "generalized additive models for location, scale and shape" (GAMLSS). Two approaches to non-stationary modelling in GAMLSS were applied to the annual maximum flood records of 20 continental Spanish rivers. The results of the first approach, in which the parameters of the selected distributions were modelled as a function of time only, show the presence of clear non-stationarities in the flood regime. In a second approach, the parameters of the flood distributions are modelled as functions of climate indices (Arctic Oscillation, North Atlantic Oscillation, Mediterranean Oscillation and the Western Mediterranean Oscillation) and a reservoir index that is proposed in this paper. The results when incorporating external covariates in the study highlight the important role of interannual variability in low-frequency climate forcings when modelling the flood regime in continental Spanish rivers. Also, with this approach it is possible to properly introduce the impact on the flood regime of intensified reservoir regulation strategies. The inclusion of external covariates permits the use of these models as predictive tools. Finally, the application of non-stationary analysis shows that the differences between the non-stationary quantiles and their stationary equivalents may be important over long periods of time.

Non-stationary flood frequency analysis in continental Spanish rivers, using climate and reservoir indices as external covariates

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

J. López

2013-08-01

Full Text Available Recent evidences of the impact of persistent modes of regional climate variability, coupled with the intensification of human activities, have led hydrologists to study flood regime without applying the hypothesis of stationarity. In this study, a framework for flood frequency analysis is developed on the basis of a tool that enables us to address the modelling of non-stationary time series, namely, the "generalized additive models for location, scale and shape" (GAMLSS. Two approaches to non-stationary modelling in GAMLSS were applied to the annual maximum flood records of 20 continental Spanish rivers. The results of the first approach, in which the parameters of the selected distributions were modelled as a function of time only, show the presence of clear non-stationarities in the flood regime. In a second approach, the parameters of the flood distributions are modelled as functions of climate indices (Arctic Oscillation, North Atlantic Oscillation, Mediterranean Oscillation and the Western Mediterranean Oscillation and a reservoir index that is proposed in this paper. The results when incorporating external covariates in the study highlight the important role of interannual variability in low-frequency climate forcings when modelling the flood regime in continental Spanish rivers. Also, with this approach it is possible to properly introduce the impact on the flood regime of intensified reservoir regulation strategies. The inclusion of external covariates permits the use of these models as predictive tools. Finally, the application of non-stationary analysis shows that the differences between the non-stationary quantiles and their stationary equivalents may be important over long periods of time.

Online updating and uncertainty quantification using nonstationary output-only measurement

Science.gov (United States)

Yuen, Ka-Veng; Kuok, Sin-Chi

2016-01-01

Extended Kalman filter (EKF) is widely adopted for state estimation and parametric identification of dynamical systems. In this algorithm, it is required to specify the covariance matrices of the process noise and measurement noise based on prior knowledge. However, improper assignment of these noise covariance matrices leads to unreliable estimation and misleading uncertainty estimation on the system state and model parameters. Furthermore, it may induce diverging estimation. To resolve these problems, we propose a Bayesian probabilistic algorithm for online estimation of the noise parameters which are used to characterize the noise covariance matrices. There are three major appealing features of the proposed approach. First, it resolves the divergence problem in the conventional usage of EKF due to improper choice of the noise covariance matrices. Second, the proposed approach ensures the reliability of the uncertainty quantification. Finally, since the noise parameters are allowed to be time-varying, nonstationary process noise and/or measurement noise are explicitly taken into account. Examples using stationary/nonstationary response of linear/nonlinear time-varying dynamical systems are presented to demonstrate the efficacy of the proposed approach. Furthermore, comparison with the conventional usage of EKF will be provided to reveal the necessity of the proposed approach for reliable model updating and uncertainty quantification.

Frequency Analysis of Extreme Sub-Daily Precipitation under Stationary and Non-Stationary Conditions across Two Contrasting Hydroclimatic Environments

Science.gov (United States)

Demaria, E. M.; Goodrich, D. C.; Keefer, T.

2017-12-01

Observed sub-daily precipitation intensities from contrasting hydroclimatic environments in the USA are used to evaluate temporal trends and to develop Intensity-Duration Frequency (IDF) curves under stationary and nonstationary climatic conditions. Analyses are based on observations from two United States Department of Agriculture (USDA)-Agricultural Research Service (ARS) experimental watersheds located in a semi-arid and a temperate environment. We use an Annual Maximum Series (AMS) and a Partial Duration Series (PDS) approach to identify temporal trends in maximum intensities for durations ranging from 5- to 1440-minutes. A Bayesian approach with Monte Carlo techniques is used to incorporate the effect of non-stationary climatic assumptions in the IDF curves. The results show increasing trends in observed AMS sub-daily intensities in both watersheds whereas trends in the PDS observations are mostly positive in the semi-arid site and a mix of positive and negative in the temperate site. Stationary climate assumptions lead to much lower estimated sub-daily intensities than those under non-stationary assumptions with larger absolute differences found for shorter durations and smaller return periods. The risk of failure (R) of a hydraulic structure is increased for non-stationary effects over those of stationary effects, with absolute differences of 25% for a 100-year return period (T) and a project life (n) of 100 years. The study highlights the importance of considering non-stationarity, due to natural variability or to climate change, in storm design.

Detrending of non-stationary noise data by spline techniques

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Behringer, K.

1989-11-01

An off-line method for detrending non-stationary noise data has been investigated. It uses a least squares spline approximation of the noise data with equally spaced breakpoints. Subtraction of the spline approximation from the noise signal at each data point gives a residual noise signal. The method acts as a high-pass filter with very sharp frequency cutoff. The cutoff frequency is determined by the breakpoint distance. The steepness of the cutoff is controlled by the spline order. (author) 12 figs., 1 tab., 5 refs

Probing Gamma-ray Emission of Geminga & Vela with Non-stationary Models

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yating Chai

2016-06-01

Full Text Available It is generally believed that the high energy emissions from isolated pulsars are emitted from relativistic electrons/positrons accelerated in outer magnetospheric accelerators (outergaps via a curvature radiation mechanism, which has a simple exponential cut-off spectrum. However, many gamma-ray pulsars detected by the Fermi LAT (Large Area Telescope cannot be fitted by simple exponential cut-off spectrum, and instead a sub-exponential is more appropriate. It is proposed that the realistic outergaps are non-stationary, and that the observed spectrum is a superposition of different stationary states that are controlled by the currents injected from the inner and outer boundaries. The Vela and Geminga pulsars have the largest fluxes among all targets observed, which allows us to carry out very detailed phase-resolved spectral analysis. We have divided the Vela and Geminga pulsars into 19 (the off pulse of Vela was not included and 33 phase bins, respectively. We find that most phase resolved spectra still cannot be fitted by a simple exponential spectrum: in fact, a sub-exponential spectrum is necessary. We conclude that non-stationary states exist even down to the very fine phase bins.

Poisson pre-processing of nonstationary photonic signals: Signals with equality between mean and variance.

Science.gov (United States)

Poplová, Michaela; Sovka, Pavel; Cifra, Michal

2017-01-01

Photonic signals are broadly exploited in communication and sensing and they typically exhibit Poisson-like statistics. In a common scenario where the intensity of the photonic signals is low and one needs to remove a nonstationary trend of the signals for any further analysis, one faces an obstacle: due to the dependence between the mean and variance typical for a Poisson-like process, information about the trend remains in the variance even after the trend has been subtracted, possibly yielding artifactual results in further analyses. Commonly available detrending or normalizing methods cannot cope with this issue. To alleviate this issue we developed a suitable pre-processing method for the signals that originate from a Poisson-like process. In this paper, a Poisson pre-processing method for nonstationary time series with Poisson distribution is developed and tested on computer-generated model data and experimental data of chemiluminescence from human neutrophils and mung seeds. The presented method transforms a nonstationary Poisson signal into a stationary signal with a Poisson distribution while preserving the type of photocount distribution and phase-space structure of the signal. The importance of the suggested pre-processing method is shown in Fano factor and Hurst exponent analysis of both computer-generated model signals and experimental photonic signals. It is demonstrated that our pre-processing method is superior to standard detrending-based methods whenever further signal analysis is sensitive to variance of the signal.

Nonstationary influence of El Niño on the synchronous dengue epidemics in Thailand.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Bernard Cazelles

2005-04-01

Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Several factors, including environmental and climatic factors, influence the transmission of vector-borne diseases. Nevertheless, the identification and relative importance of climatic factors for vector-borne diseases remain controversial. Dengue is the world's most important viral vector-borne disease, and the controversy about climatic effects also applies in this case. Here we address the role of climate variability in shaping the interannual pattern of dengue epidemics. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We have analysed monthly data for Thailand from 1983 to 1997 using wavelet approaches that can describe nonstationary phenomena and that also allow the quantification of nonstationary associations between time series. We report a strong association between monthly dengue incidence in Thailand and the dynamics of El Niño for the 2-3-y periodic mode. This association is nonstationary, seen only from 1986 to 1992, and appears to have a major influence on the synchrony of dengue epidemics in Thailand. CONCLUSION: The underlying mechanism for the synchronisation of dengue epidemics may resemble that of a pacemaker, in which intrinsic disease dynamics interact with climate variations driven by El Niño to propagate travelling waves of infection. When association with El Niño is strong in the 2-3-y periodic mode, one observes high synchrony of dengue epidemics over Thailand. When this association is absent, the seasonal dynamics become dominant and the synchrony initiated in Bangkok collapses.

Production planning of a perishable product with lead time and non-stationary demand

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Pauls-Worm, K.G.J.; Haijema, R.; Hendrix, E.M.T.; Rossi, R.; Vorst, van der J.G.A.J.

2012-01-01

We study a production planning problem for a perishable product with a fixed lifetime, under a service-level constraint. The product has a non-stationary stochastic demand. Food supply chains of fresh products like cheese and several crop products, are characterised by long lead times due to

A survey of techniques applied to non-stationary waveforms in electrical power systems

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Rodrigues, R.P.; Silveira, P.M.; Ribeiro, P.F.

2010-01-01

The well-known and ever-present time-varying and non-stationary nature of waveforms in power systems requires a comprehensive and precise analytical basis that needs to be incorporated in the system studies and analyses. This time-varying behavior is due to continuous changes in system

A review on prognostic techniques for non-stationary and non-linear rotating systems

Science.gov (United States)

Kan, Man Shan; Tan, Andy C. C.; Mathew, Joseph

2015-10-01

The field of prognostics has attracted significant interest from the research community in recent times. Prognostics enables the prediction of failures in machines resulting in benefits to plant operators such as shorter downtimes, higher operation reliability, reduced operations and maintenance cost, and more effective maintenance and logistics planning. Prognostic systems have been successfully deployed for the monitoring of relatively simple rotating machines. However, machines and associated systems today are increasingly complex. As such, there is an urgent need to develop prognostic techniques for such complex systems operating in the real world. This review paper focuses on prognostic techniques that can be applied to rotating machinery operating under non-linear and non-stationary conditions. The general concept of these techniques, the pros and cons of applying these methods, as well as their applications in the research field are discussed. Finally, the opportunities and challenges in implementing prognostic systems and developing effective techniques for monitoring machines operating under non-stationary and non-linear conditions are also discussed.

A biorthogonal decomposition for the identification and simulation of non-stationary and non-Gaussian random fields

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Zentner, I. [IMSIA, UMR EDF-ENSTA-CNRS-CEA 9219, Université Paris-Saclay, 828 Boulevard des Maréchaux, 91762 Palaiseau Cedex (France); Ferré, G., E-mail: gregoire.ferre@ponts.org [CERMICS – Ecole des Ponts ParisTech, 6 et 8 avenue Blaise Pascal, Cité Descartes, Champs sur Marne, 77455 Marne la Vallée Cedex 2 (France); Poirion, F. [Department of Structural Dynamics and Aeroelasticity, ONERA, BP 72, 29 avenue de la Division Leclerc, 92322 Chatillon Cedex (France); Benoit, M. [Institut de Recherche sur les Phénomènes Hors Equilibre (IRPHE), UMR 7342 (CNRS, Aix-Marseille Université, Ecole Centrale Marseille), 49 rue Frédéric Joliot-Curie, BP 146, 13384 Marseille Cedex 13 (France)

2016-06-01

In this paper, a new method for the identification and simulation of non-Gaussian and non-stationary stochastic fields given a database is proposed. It is based on two successive biorthogonal decompositions aiming at representing spatio–temporal stochastic fields. The proposed double expansion allows to build the model even in the case of large-size problems by separating the time, space and random parts of the field. A Gaussian kernel estimator is used to simulate the high dimensional set of random variables appearing in the decomposition. The capability of the method to reproduce the non-stationary and non-Gaussian features of random phenomena is illustrated by applications to earthquakes (seismic ground motion) and sea states (wave heights).

Project Lifespan-based Nonstationary Hydrologic Design Methods for Changing Environment

Science.gov (United States)

Xiong, L.

2017-12-01

Under changing environment, we must associate design floods with the design life period of projects to ensure the hydrologic design is really relevant to the operation of the hydrologic projects, because the design value for a given exceedance probability over the project life period would be significantly different from that over other time periods of the same length due to the nonstationarity of probability distributions. Several hydrologic design methods that take the design life period of projects into account have been proposed in recent years, i.e. the expected number of exceedances (ENE), design life level (DLL), equivalent reliability (ER), and average design life level (ADLL). Among the four methods to be compared, both the ENE and ER methods are return period-based methods, while DLL and ADLL are risk/reliability- based methods which estimate design values for given probability values of risk or reliability. However, the four methods can be unified together under a general framework through a relationship transforming the so-called representative reliability (RRE) into the return period, i.e. m=1/1(1-RRE), in which we compute the return period m using the representative reliability RRE.The results of nonstationary design quantiles and associated confidence intervals calculated by ENE, ER and ADLL were very similar, since ENE or ER was a special case or had a similar expression form with respect to ADLL. In particular, the design quantiles calculated by ENE and ADLL were the same when return period was equal to the length of the design life. In addition, DLL can yield similar design values if the relationship between DLL and ER/ADLL return periods is considered. Furthermore, ENE, ER and ADLL had good adaptability to either an increasing or decreasing situation, yielding not too large or too small design quantiles. This is important for applications of nonstationary hydrologic design methods in actual practice because of the concern of choosing the emerging

Assessment of autonomic nervous system by using empirical mode decomposition-based reflection wave analysis during non-stationary conditions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chang, C C; Hsiao, T C; Kao, S C; Hsu, H Y

2014-01-01

Arterial blood pressure (ABP) is an important indicator of cardiovascular circulation and presents various intrinsic regulations. It has been found that the intrinsic characteristics of blood vessels can be assessed quantitatively by ABP analysis (called reflection wave analysis (RWA)), but conventional RWA is insufficient for assessment during non-stationary conditions, such as the Valsalva maneuver. Recently, a novel adaptive method called empirical mode decomposition (EMD) was proposed for non-stationary data analysis. This study proposed a RWA algorithm based on EMD (EMD-RWA). A total of 51 subjects participated in this study, including 39 healthy subjects and 12 patients with autonomic nervous system (ANS) dysfunction. The results showed that EMD-RWA provided a reliable estimation of reflection time in baseline and head-up tilt (HUT). Moreover, the estimated reflection time is able to assess the ANS function non-invasively, both in normal, healthy subjects and in the patients with ANS dysfunction. EMD-RWA provides a new approach for reflection time estimation in non-stationary conditions, and also helps with non-invasive ANS assessment. (paper)

Non-Stationary Rician Noise Estimation in Parallel MRI Using a Single Image: A Variance-Stabilizing Approach.

Science.gov (United States)

Pieciak, Tomasz; Aja-Fernandez, Santiago; Vegas-Sanchez-Ferrero, Gonzalo

2017-10-01

Parallel magnetic resonance imaging (pMRI) techniques have gained a great importance both in research and clinical communities recently since they considerably accelerate the image acquisition process. However, the image reconstruction algorithms needed to correct the subsampling artifacts affect the nature of noise, i.e., it becomes non-stationary. Some methods have been proposed in the literature dealing with the non-stationary noise in pMRI. However, their performance depends on information not usually available such as multiple acquisitions, receiver noise matrices, sensitivity coil profiles, reconstruction coefficients, or even biophysical models of the data. Besides, some methods show an undesirable granular pattern on the estimates as a side effect of local estimation. Finally, some methods make strong assumptions that just hold in the case of high signal-to-noise ratio (SNR), which limits their usability in real scenarios. We propose a new automatic noise estimation technique for non-stationary Rician noise that overcomes the aforementioned drawbacks. Its effectiveness is due to the derivation of a variance-stabilizing transformation designed to deal with any SNR. The method was compared to the main state-of-the-art methods in synthetic and real scenarios. Numerical results confirm the robustness of the method and its better performance for the whole range of SNRs.

Consistent and Conservative Model Selection with the Adaptive LASSO in Stationary and Nonstationary Autoregressions

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kock, Anders Bredahl

2016-01-01

We show that the adaptive Lasso is oracle efficient in stationary and nonstationary autoregressions. This means that it estimates parameters consistently, selects the correct sparsity pattern, and estimates the coefficients belonging to the relevant variables at the same asymptotic efficiency...

Separation of non-stationary multi-source sound field based on the interpolated time-domain equivalent source method

Science.gov (United States)

Bi, Chuan-Xing; Geng, Lin; Zhang, Xiao-Zheng

2016-05-01

In the sound field with multiple non-stationary sources, the measured pressure is the sum of the pressures generated by all sources, and thus cannot be used directly for studying the vibration and sound radiation characteristics of every source alone. This paper proposes a separation model based on the interpolated time-domain equivalent source method (ITDESM) to separate the pressure field belonging to every source from the non-stationary multi-source sound field. In the proposed method, ITDESM is first extended to establish the relationship between the mixed time-dependent pressure and all the equivalent sources distributed on every source with known location and geometry information, and all the equivalent source strengths at each time step are solved by an iterative solving process; then, the corresponding equivalent source strengths of one interested source are used to calculate the pressure field generated by that source alone. Numerical simulation of two baffled circular pistons demonstrates that the proposed method can be effective in separating the non-stationary pressure generated by every source alone in both time and space domains. An experiment with two speakers in a semi-anechoic chamber further evidences the effectiveness of the proposed method.

Local polynomial Whittle estimation covering non-stationary fractional processes

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Nielsen, Frank

to the non-stationary region. By approximating the short-run component of the spectrum by a polynomial, instead of a constant, in a shrinking neighborhood of zero we alleviate some of the bias that the classical local Whittle estimators is prone to. This bias reduction comes at a cost as the variance is in...... study illustrates the performance of the proposed estimator compared to the classical local Whittle estimator and the local polynomial Whittle estimator. The empirical justi.cation of the proposed estimator is shown through an analysis of credit spreads....

Time-frequency analysis of non-stationary fusion plasma signals using an improved Hilbert-Huang transform

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Liu, Yangqing; Tan, Yi; Xie, Huiqiao; Wang, Wenhao; Gao, Zhe

2014-01-01

An improved Hilbert-Huang transform method is developed to the time-frequency analysis of non-stationary signals in tokamak plasmas. Maximal overlap discrete wavelet packet transform rather than wavelet packet transform is proposed as a preprocessor to decompose a signal into various narrow-band components. Then, a correlation coefficient based selection method is utilized to eliminate the irrelevant intrinsic mode functions obtained from empirical mode decomposition of those narrow-band components. Subsequently, a time varying vector autoregressive moving average model instead of Hilbert spectral analysis is performed to compute the Hilbert spectrum, i.e., a three-dimensional time-frequency distribution of the signal. The feasibility and effectiveness of the improved Hilbert-Huang transform method is demonstrated by analyzing a non-stationary simulated signal and actual experimental signals in fusion plasmas

On The Ubiquity of Nonstationary Fluvial Suspended Sediment Dynamics: A Call for Long Term Monitoring and Dynamical Sediment Management Strategies

Science.gov (United States)

Gray, A. B.

2017-12-01

Watersheds with sufficient monitoring data have been predominantly found to display nonstationary suspended sediment dynamics, whereby the relationship between suspended sediment concentration and discharge changes over time. Despite the importance of suspended sediment as a keystone of geophysical and biochemical processes, and as a primary mediator of water quality, stationary behavior remains largely assumed in the context of these applications. This study presents an investigation into the time dependent behavior of small mountainous rivers draining the coastal ranges of the western continental US over interannual to interdecadal time scales. Of the 250+ small coastal (drainage area systems. Temporal patterns of non-stationary behavior provided some evidence for spatial coherence, which may be related to synoptic hydro-metrological patterns and regional scale changes in land use patterns. However, the results also highlight the complex, integrative nature of watershed scale fluvial suspended sediment dynamics. This underscores the need for in-depth, forensic approaches for initial processes identification, which require long term, high resolution monitoring efforts in order to adequately inform management. The societal implications of nonstationary sediment dynamics and their controls were further explored through the case of California, USA, where over 150 impairment listings have resulted in more than 50 sediment TMDLs, only 3 of which are flux based - none of which account for non-stationary behavior.

Dynamics of Inhomogeneous Shell Systems Under Non-Stationary Loading (Survey)

Science.gov (United States)

Lugovoi, P. Z.; Meish, V. F.

2017-09-01

Experimental works on the determination of dynamics of smooth and stiffened cylindrical shells contacting with a soil medium under various non-stationary loading are reviewed. The results of studying three-layer shells of revolution whose motion equations are obtained within the framework of the hypotheses of the Timoshenko geometrically nonlinear theory are stated. The numerical results for shells with a piecewise or discrete filler enable the analysis of estimation of the influence of geometrical and physical-mechanical parameters of structures on their dynamics and reveal new mechanical effects. Basing on the classical theory of shells and rods, the effect of the discrete arrangement of ribs and coefficients of the Winkler or Pasternak elastic foundation on the normal frequencies and modes of rectangular planar cylindrical and spherical shells is studied. The number and shape of dispersion curves for longitudinal harmonic waves in a stiffened cylindrical shell are determined. The equations of vibrations of ribbed shells of revolution on Winkler or Pasternak elastic foundation are obtained using the geometrically nonlinear theory and the Timoshenko hypotheses. On applying the integral-interpolational method, numerical algorithms are developed and the corresponding non-stationary problems are solved. The special attention is paid to the statement and solution of coupled problems on the dynamical interaction of cylindrical or spherical shells with the soil water-saturated medium of different structure.

Non-stationary and relaxation phenomena in cavity-assisted quantum memories

Science.gov (United States)

Veselkova, N. G.; Sokolov, I. V.

2017-12-01

We investigate the non-stationary and relaxation phenomena in cavity-assisted quantum memories for light. As a storage medium we consider an ensemble of cold atoms with standard Lambda-scheme of working levels. Some theoretical aspects of the problem were treated previously by many authors, and recent experiments stimulate more deep insight into the ultimate ability and limitations of the device. Since quantum memories can be used not only for the storage of quantum information, but also for a substantial manipulation of ensembles of quantum states, the speed of such manipulation and hence the ability to write and retrieve the signals of relatively short duration becomes important. In our research we do not apply the so-called bad cavity limit, and consider the memory operation of the signals whose duration is not much larger than the cavity field lifetime, accounting also for the finite lifetime of atomic coherence. In our paper we present an effective approach that makes it possible to find the non-stationary amplitude and phase behavior of strong classical control field, that matches the desirable time profile of both the envelope and the phase of the retrieved quantized signal. The phase properties of the retrieved quantized signals are of importance for the detection and manipulation of squeezing, entanglement, etc by means of optical mixing and homodyning.

Interaction of storage carbohydrates and other cyclic fluxes with central metabolism: A quantitative approach by non-stationary 13C metabolic flux analysis

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

C.A. Suarez-Mendez

2016-12-01

Full Text Available 13C labeling experiments in aerobic glucose limited cultures of Saccharomyces cerevisiae at four different growth rates (0.054; 0.101, 0.207, 0.307 h−1 are used for calculating fluxes that include intracellular cycles (e.g., storage carbohydrate cycles, exchange fluxes with amino acids, which are rearranged depending on the growth rate. At low growth rates the impact of the storage carbohydrate recycle is relatively more significant than at high growth rates due to a higher concentration of these materials in the cell (up to 560-fold and higher fluxes relative to the glucose uptake rate (up to 16%. Experimental observations suggest that glucose can be exported to the extracellular space, and that its source is related to storage carbohydrates, most likely via the export and subsequent extracellular breakdown of trehalose. This hypothesis is strongly supported by 13C-labeling experimental data, measured extracellular trehalose, and the corresponding flux estimations. Keywords: Non-stationary 13C labeling, Flux estimation, Trehalose, Glycogen, Amino acids

Bayesian Inference of Nonstationary Precipitation Intensity-Duration-Frequency Curves for Infrastructure Design

Science.gov (United States)

2016-03-01

each IDF curve and subsequently used to force a calibrated and validated precipitation - runoff model. Probability-based, risk-informed hydrologic...ERDC/CHL CHETN-X-2 March 2016 Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited. Bayesian Inference of Nonstationary Precipitation Intensity...based means by which to develop local precipitation Intensity-Duration-Frequency (IDF) curves using historical rainfall time series data collected for

Study on nonstationary convective heat transfer in annular channels and rod bundles in conditions of arbitrary variation of heat duty in time and length

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kuznetsov, Yu.N.; Kalinin, E.I.; Naumov, M.A.

1980-01-01

The effect of variability of heat duty on the characteristics of heat exchange in ring channels and rod bundles is investigated with analytical methods. The plotting of calculation formulae for non-stationary heat exchange in an annular channel at a jump of heat duty is carried out on the basis of the method of the effect function. The formulae obtained permit to accomplish technical calculations of the processes of non-stationary heat exchange in annular channels in the case of any alterations of thermal duty in time, at any moment of time, for any channel cross section (including the entrance heat section) in a wide range of geometric and regime parameters of the turbulent current of a coolant. According to preliminary estimates, calculation results differ from the results oi a numerical solution less than 5%. The approach considered permits to transfer the data on the non-stationary heat exchange in annular channels in the case of changing the heat duty in time, in the case of a non-stationary heat exchange in longitudinally flown not very dense and infinite rod bundles

Direct estimation and correction of bias from temporally variable non-stationary noise in a channelized Hotelling model observer.

Science.gov (United States)

Fetterly, Kenneth A; Favazza, Christopher P

2016-08-07

Channelized Hotelling model observer (CHO) methods were developed to assess performance of an x-ray angiography system. The analytical methods included correction for known bias error due to finite sampling. Detectability indices ([Formula: see text]) corresponding to disk-shaped objects with diameters in the range 0.5-4 mm were calculated. Application of the CHO for variable detector target dose (DTD) in the range 6-240 nGy frame(-1) resulted in [Formula: see text] estimates which were as much as 2.9×  greater than expected of a quantum limited system. Over-estimation of [Formula: see text] was presumed to be a result of bias error due to temporally variable non-stationary noise. Statistical theory which allows for independent contributions of 'signal' from a test object (o) and temporally variable non-stationary noise (ns) was developed. The theory demonstrates that the biased [Formula: see text] is the sum of the detectability indices associated with the test object [Formula: see text] and non-stationary noise ([Formula: see text]). Given the nature of the imaging system and the experimental methods, [Formula: see text] cannot be directly determined independent of [Formula: see text]. However, methods to estimate [Formula: see text] independent of [Formula: see text] were developed. In accordance with the theory, [Formula: see text] was subtracted from experimental estimates of [Formula: see text], providing an unbiased estimate of [Formula: see text]. Estimates of [Formula: see text] exhibited trends consistent with expectations of an angiography system that is quantum limited for high DTD and compromised by detector electronic readout noise for low DTD conditions. Results suggest that these methods provide [Formula: see text] estimates which are accurate and precise for [Formula: see text]. Further, results demonstrated that the source of bias was detector electronic readout noise. In summary, this work presents theory and methods to test for the

Effect of non-stationary climate on infectious gastroenteritis transmission in Japan

OpenAIRE

Onozuka, Daisuke

2014-01-01

Local weather factors are widely considered to influence the transmission of infectious gastroenteritis. Few studies, however, have examined the non-stationary relationships between global climatic factors and transmission of infectious gastroenteritis. We analyzed monthly data for cases of infectious gastroenteritis in Fukuoka, Japan from 2000 to 2012 using cross-wavelet coherency analysis to assess the pattern of associations between indices for the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and El Niño Sou...

Non-stationary (13)C-metabolic flux ratio analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Hörl, Manuel; Schnidder, Julian; Sauer, Uwe; Zamboni, Nicola

2013-12-01

(13)C-metabolic flux analysis ((13)C-MFA) has become a key method for metabolic engineering and systems biology. In the most common methodology, fluxes are calculated by global isotopomer balancing and iterative fitting to stationary (13)C-labeling data. This approach requires a closed carbon balance, long-lasting metabolic steady state, and the detection of (13)C-patterns in a large number of metabolites. These restrictions mostly reduced the application of (13)C-MFA to the central carbon metabolism of well-studied model organisms grown in minimal media with a single carbon source. Here we introduce non-stationary (13)C-metabolic flux ratio analysis as a novel method for (13)C-MFA to allow estimating local, relative fluxes from ultra-short (13)C-labeling experiments and without the need for global isotopomer balancing. The approach relies on the acquisition of non-stationary (13)C-labeling data exclusively for metabolites in the proximity of a node of converging fluxes and a local parameter estimation with a system of ordinary differential equations. We developed a generalized workflow that takes into account reaction types and the availability of mass spectrometric data on molecular ions or fragments for data processing, modeling, parameter and error estimation. We demonstrated the approach by analyzing three key nodes of converging fluxes in central metabolism of Bacillus subtilis. We obtained flux estimates that are in agreement with published results obtained from steady state experiments, but reduced the duration of the necessary (13)C-labeling experiment to less than a minute. These results show that our strategy enables to formally estimate relative pathway fluxes on extremely short time scale, neglecting cellular carbon balancing. Hence this approach paves the road to targeted (13)C-MFA in dynamic systems with multiple carbon sources and towards rich media. © 2013 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Non-stationary discharge patterns in motor cortex under subthalamic nucleus deep brain stimulation.

Science.gov (United States)

Santaniello, Sabato; Montgomery, Erwin B; Gale, John T; Sarma, Sridevi V

2012-01-01

Deep brain stimulation (DBS) of the subthalamic nucleus (STN) directly modulates the basal ganglia (BG), but how such stimulation impacts the cortex upstream is largely unknown. There is evidence of cortical activation in 6-hydroxydopamine (OHDA)-lesioned rodents and facilitation of motor evoked potentials in Parkinson's disease (PD) patients, but the impact of the DBS settings on the cortical activity in normal vs. Parkinsonian conditions is still debated. We use point process models to analyze non-stationary activation patterns and inter-neuronal dependencies in the motor and sensory cortices of two non-human primates during STN DBS. These features are enhanced after treatment with 1-methyl-4-phenyl-1,2,3,6-tetrahydropyridine (MPTP), which causes a consistent PD-like motor impairment, while high-frequency (HF) DBS (i.e., ≥100 Hz) strongly reduces the short-term patterns (period: 3-7 ms) both before and after MPTP treatment, and elicits a short-latency post-stimulus activation. Low-frequency DBS (i.e., ≤50 Hz), instead, has negligible effects on the non-stationary features. Finally, by using tools from the information theory [i.e., receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve and information rate (IR)], we show that the predictive power of these models is dependent on the DBS settings, i.e., the probability of spiking of the cortical neurons (which is captured by the point process models) is significantly conditioned on the timely delivery of the DBS input. This dependency increases with the DBS frequency and is significantly larger for high- vs. low-frequency DBS. Overall, the selective suppression of non-stationary features and the increased modulation of the spike probability suggest that HF STN DBS enhances the neuronal activation in motor and sensory cortices, presumably because of reinforcement mechanisms, which perhaps involve the overlap between feedback antidromic and feed-forward orthodromic responses along the BG-thalamo-cortical loop.

Dust grain dynamics due to nonuniform and nonstationary high-frequency radiations in cold magnetoplasmas

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

A. K. Nekrasov

2006-03-01

Full Text Available A general nonlinear theory for low-frequency electromagnetic field generation due to high-frequency nonuniform and nonstationary electromagnetic radiations in cold, uniform, multicomponent, dusty magnetoplasmas is developed. This theory permits us to consider the nonlinear action of all waves that can exist in such plasmas. The equations are derived for the dust grain velocities in the low-frequency nonlinear electric fields arising due to the presence of electromagnetic cyclotron waves travelling along the background magnetic field. The dust grains are considered to be magnetized as well as unmagnetized. Different regimes for the dust particle dynamics, depending on the spatio-temporal change of the wave amplitudes and plasma parameters, are discussed. It is shown that induced nonlinear electric fields can have both an electrostatic and electromagnetic nature. Conditions for maximum dust acceleration are found. The results obtained may be useful for understanding the possible mechanisms of dust grain dynamics in astrophysical, cosmic and laboratory plasmas under the action of nonuniform and nonstationary electromagnetic waves.

Joint High-Order Synchrosqueezing Transform and Multi-Taper Empirical Wavelet Transform for Fault Diagnosis of Wind Turbine Planetary Gearbox under Nonstationary Conditions

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yue Hu

2018-01-01

Full Text Available Wind turbines usually operate under nonstationary conditions, such as wide-range speed fluctuation and time-varying load. Its critical component, the planetary gearbox, is prone to malfunction or failure, which leads to downtime and repair costs. Therefore, fault diagnosis and condition monitoring for the planetary gearbox in wind turbines is a vital research topic. Meanwhile, the signals measured by the vibration sensors mounted in the gearbox exhibit time-varying and nonstationary features. In this study, a novel time-frequency method based on high-order synchrosqueezing transform (SST and multi-taper empirical wavelet transform (MTEWT is proposed for the wind turbine planetary gearbox under nonstationary conditions. The high-order SST uses accurate instantaneous frequency approximations to obtain a sharper time-frequency representation (TFR. As the acquired signal consists of many components, like the meshing and rotating components of the gear and bearing, the fault component may be masked by other unrelated components. The MTEWT is used to separate the fault feature from the masking components. A variety of experimental signals of the wind turbine planetary gearbox under nonstationary conditions have been analyzed to demonstrate the effectiveness and robustness of the proposed method. Results show that the proposed method is effective in diagnosing both gear and bearing faults.

Joint High-Order Synchrosqueezing Transform and Multi-Taper Empirical Wavelet Transform for Fault Diagnosis of Wind Turbine Planetary Gearbox under Nonstationary Conditions.

Science.gov (United States)

Hu, Yue; Tu, Xiaotong; Li, Fucai; Meng, Guang

2018-01-07

Wind turbines usually operate under nonstationary conditions, such as wide-range speed fluctuation and time-varying load. Its critical component, the planetary gearbox, is prone to malfunction or failure, which leads to downtime and repair costs. Therefore, fault diagnosis and condition monitoring for the planetary gearbox in wind turbines is a vital research topic. Meanwhile, the signals measured by the vibration sensors mounted in the gearbox exhibit time-varying and nonstationary features. In this study, a novel time-frequency method based on high-order synchrosqueezing transform (SST) and multi-taper empirical wavelet transform (MTEWT) is proposed for the wind turbine planetary gearbox under nonstationary conditions. The high-order SST uses accurate instantaneous frequency approximations to obtain a sharper time-frequency representation (TFR). As the acquired signal consists of many components, like the meshing and rotating components of the gear and bearing, the fault component may be masked by other unrelated components. The MTEWT is used to separate the fault feature from the masking components. A variety of experimental signals of the wind turbine planetary gearbox under nonstationary conditions have been analyzed to demonstrate the effectiveness and robustness of the proposed method. Results show that the proposed method is effective in diagnosing both gear and bearing faults.

Scalability of Direct Solver for Non-stationary Cahn-Hilliard Simulations with Linearized time Integration Scheme

KAUST Repository

Woźniak, M.; Smołka, M.; Cortes, Adriano Mauricio; Paszyński, M.; Schaefer, R.

2016-01-01

We study the features of a new mixed integration scheme dedicated to solving the non-stationary variational problems. The scheme is composed of the FEM approximation with respect to the space variable coupled with a 3-leveled time integration scheme

Nonstationary Transient Vibroacoustic Response of a Beam Structure

Science.gov (United States)

Caimi, R. E.; Margasahayam, R. N.; Nayfeh, Jamal F.

1997-01-01

This study consists of an investigation into the nonstationary transient response of the Verification Test Article (VETA) when subjected to random acoustic excitation. The goal is to assess excitation models that can be used in the design of structures and equipment when knowledge of the structure and the excitation is limited. The VETA is an instrumented cantilever beam that was exposed to acoustic loading during five Space Shuttle launches. The VETA analytical structural model response is estimated using the direct averaged power spectral density and the normalized pressure spectra methods. The estimated responses are compared to the measured response of the VETA. These comparisons are discussed with a focus on prediction conservatism and current design practice.

A phase angle based diagnostic scheme to planetary gear faults diagnostics under non-stationary operational conditions

Science.gov (United States)

Feng, Ke; Wang, Kesheng; Ni, Qing; Zuo, Ming J.; Wei, Dongdong

2017-11-01

Planetary gearbox is a critical component for rotating machinery. It is widely used in wind turbines, aerospace and transmission systems in heavy industry. Thus, it is important to monitor planetary gearboxes, especially for fault diagnostics, during its operational conditions. However, in practice, operational conditions of planetary gearbox are often characterized by variations of rotational speeds and loads, which may bring difficulties for fault diagnosis through the measured vibrations. In this paper, phase angle data extracted from measured planetary gearbox vibrations is used for fault detection under non-stationary operational conditions. Together with sample entropy, fault diagnosis on planetary gearbox is implemented. The proposed scheme is explained and demonstrated in both simulation and experimental studies. The scheme proves to be effective and features advantages on fault diagnosis of planetary gearboxes under non-stationary operational conditions.

Bayesian soft X-ray tomography using non-stationary Gaussian Processes

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Li, Dong; Svensson, J.; Thomsen, H.; Werner, A.; Wolf, R.; Medina, F.

2013-01-01

In this study, a Bayesian based non-stationary Gaussian Process (GP) method for the inference of soft X-ray emissivity distribution along with its associated uncertainties has been developed. For the investigation of equilibrium condition and fast magnetohydrodynamic behaviors in nuclear fusion plasmas, it is of importance to infer, especially in the plasma center, spatially resolved soft X-ray profiles from a limited number of noisy line integral measurements. For this ill-posed inversion problem, Bayesian probability theory can provide a posterior probability distribution over all possible solutions under given model assumptions. Specifically, the use of a non-stationary GP to model the emission allows the model to adapt to the varying length scales of the underlying diffusion process. In contrast to other conventional methods, the prior regularization is realized in a probability form which enhances the capability of uncertainty analysis, in consequence, scientists who concern the reliability of their results will benefit from it. Under the assumption of normally distributed noise, the posterior distribution evaluated at a discrete number of points becomes a multivariate normal distribution whose mean and covariance are analytically available, making inversions and calculation of uncertainty fast. Additionally, the hyper-parameters embedded in the model assumption can be optimized through a Bayesian Occam's Razor formalism and thereby automatically adjust the model complexity. This method is shown to produce convincing reconstructions and good agreements with independently calculated results from the Maximum Entropy and Equilibrium-Based Iterative Tomography Algorithm methods

Bayesian soft X-ray tomography using non-stationary Gaussian Processes

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Dong; Svensson, J.; Thomsen, H.; Medina, F.; Werner, A.; Wolf, R.

2013-08-01

In this study, a Bayesian based non-stationary Gaussian Process (GP) method for the inference of soft X-ray emissivity distribution along with its associated uncertainties has been developed. For the investigation of equilibrium condition and fast magnetohydrodynamic behaviors in nuclear fusion plasmas, it is of importance to infer, especially in the plasma center, spatially resolved soft X-ray profiles from a limited number of noisy line integral measurements. For this ill-posed inversion problem, Bayesian probability theory can provide a posterior probability distribution over all possible solutions under given model assumptions. Specifically, the use of a non-stationary GP to model the emission allows the model to adapt to the varying length scales of the underlying diffusion process. In contrast to other conventional methods, the prior regularization is realized in a probability form which enhances the capability of uncertainty analysis, in consequence, scientists who concern the reliability of their results will benefit from it. Under the assumption of normally distributed noise, the posterior distribution evaluated at a discrete number of points becomes a multivariate normal distribution whose mean and covariance are analytically available, making inversions and calculation of uncertainty fast. Additionally, the hyper-parameters embedded in the model assumption can be optimized through a Bayesian Occam's Razor formalism and thereby automatically adjust the model complexity. This method is shown to produce convincing reconstructions and good agreements with independently calculated results from the Maximum Entropy and Equilibrium-Based Iterative Tomography Algorithm methods.

SU-F-I-80: Correction for Bias in a Channelized Hotelling Model Observer Caused by Temporally Variable Non-Stationary Noise

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Favazza, C; Fetterly, K

2016-01-01

Purpose: Application of a channelized Hotelling model observer (CHO) over a wide range of x-ray angiography detector target dose (DTD) levels demonstrated substantial bias for conditions yielding low detectability indices (d’), including low DTD and small test objects. The purpose of this work was to develop theory and methods to correct this bias. Methods: A hypothesis was developed wherein the measured detectability index (d’b) for a known test object is positively biased by temporally variable non-stationary noise in the images. Hotelling’s T2 test statistic provided the foundation for a mathematical theory which accounts for independent contributions to the measured d’b value from both the test object (d’o) and non-stationary noise (d’ns). Experimental methods were developed to directly estimate d’o by determining d’ns and subtracting it from d’b, in accordance with the theory. Specifically, d’ns was determined from two sets of images from which the traditional test object was withheld. This method was applied to angiography images with DTD levels in the range 0 to 240 nGy and for disk-shaped iodine-based contrast targets with diameters 0.5 to 4.0 mm. Results: Bias in d’ was evidenced by d’b values which exceeded values expected from a quantum limited imaging system and decreasing object size and DTD. d’ns increased with decreasing DTD, reaching a maximum of 2.6 for DTD = 0. Bias-corrected d’o estimates demonstrated sub-quantum limited performance of the x-ray angiography for low DTD. Findings demonstrated that the source of non-stationary noise was detector electronic readout noise. Conclusion: Theory and methods to estimate and correct bias in CHO measurements from temporally variable non-stationary noise were presented. The temporal non-stationary noise was shown to be due to electronic readout noise. This method facilitates accurate estimates of d’ values over a large range of object size and detector target dose.

SU-F-I-80: Correction for Bias in a Channelized Hotelling Model Observer Caused by Temporally Variable Non-Stationary Noise

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Favazza, C; Fetterly, K [Mayo Clinic, Rochester, MN (United States)

2016-06-15

Purpose: Application of a channelized Hotelling model observer (CHO) over a wide range of x-ray angiography detector target dose (DTD) levels demonstrated substantial bias for conditions yielding low detectability indices (d’), including low DTD and small test objects. The purpose of this work was to develop theory and methods to correct this bias. Methods: A hypothesis was developed wherein the measured detectability index (d’b) for a known test object is positively biased by temporally variable non-stationary noise in the images. Hotelling’s T2 test statistic provided the foundation for a mathematical theory which accounts for independent contributions to the measured d’b value from both the test object (d’o) and non-stationary noise (d’ns). Experimental methods were developed to directly estimate d’o by determining d’ns and subtracting it from d’b, in accordance with the theory. Specifically, d’ns was determined from two sets of images from which the traditional test object was withheld. This method was applied to angiography images with DTD levels in the range 0 to 240 nGy and for disk-shaped iodine-based contrast targets with diameters 0.5 to 4.0 mm. Results: Bias in d’ was evidenced by d’b values which exceeded values expected from a quantum limited imaging system and decreasing object size and DTD. d’ns increased with decreasing DTD, reaching a maximum of 2.6 for DTD = 0. Bias-corrected d’o estimates demonstrated sub-quantum limited performance of the x-ray angiography for low DTD. Findings demonstrated that the source of non-stationary noise was detector electronic readout noise. Conclusion: Theory and methods to estimate and correct bias in CHO measurements from temporally variable non-stationary noise were presented. The temporal non-stationary noise was shown to be due to electronic readout noise. This method facilitates accurate estimates of d’ values over a large range of object size and detector target dose.

Multi-scale Quantitative Precipitation Forecasting Using Nonlinear and Nonstationary Teleconnection Signals and Artificial Neural Network Models

Science.gov (United States)

Global sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies can affect terrestrial precipitation via ocean-atmosphere interaction known as climate teleconnection. Non-stationary and non-linear characteristics of the ocean-atmosphere system make the identification of the teleconnection signals...

Inventory control for a perishable product with non-stationary demand and service level constraints

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Pauls-Worm, K.G.J.; Hendrix, E.M.T.; Haijema, R.; Vorst, van der J.G.A.J.

2013-01-01

We study the practical production planning problem of a food producer facing a non-stationary erratic demand for a perishable product with a fixed life time. In meeting the uncertain demand, the food producer uses a FIFO issuing policy. The food producer aims at meeting a certain service level at

Quantum memory for nonstationary light fields based on controlled reversible inhomogeneous broadening

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kraus, B.; Tittel, W.; Gisin, N.; Nilsson, M.; Kroell, S.; Cirac, J. I.

2006-01-01

We propose a method for efficient storage and recall of arbitrary nonstationary light fields, such as, for instance, single photon time-bin qubits or intense fields, in optically dense atomic ensembles. Our approach to quantum memory is based on controlled, reversible, inhomogeneous broadening and relies on a hidden time-reversal symmetry of the optical Bloch equations describing the propagation of the light field. We briefly discuss experimental realizations of our proposal

A non-stationary cost-benefit based bivariate extreme flood estimation approach

Science.gov (United States)

Qi, Wei; Liu, Junguo

2018-02-01

Cost-benefit analysis and flood frequency analysis have been integrated into a comprehensive framework to estimate cost effective design values. However, previous cost-benefit based extreme flood estimation is based on stationary assumptions and analyze dependent flood variables separately. A Non-Stationary Cost-Benefit based bivariate design flood estimation (NSCOBE) approach is developed in this study to investigate influence of non-stationarities in both the dependence of flood variables and the marginal distributions on extreme flood estimation. The dependence is modeled utilizing copula functions. Previous design flood selection criteria are not suitable for NSCOBE since they ignore time changing dependence of flood variables. Therefore, a risk calculation approach is proposed based on non-stationarities in both marginal probability distributions and copula functions. A case study with 54-year observed data is utilized to illustrate the application of NSCOBE. Results show NSCOBE can effectively integrate non-stationarities in both copula functions and marginal distributions into cost-benefit based design flood estimation. It is also found that there is a trade-off between maximum probability of exceedance calculated from copula functions and marginal distributions. This study for the first time provides a new approach towards a better understanding of influence of non-stationarities in both copula functions and marginal distributions on extreme flood estimation, and could be beneficial to cost-benefit based non-stationary bivariate design flood estimation across the world.

Self-adaptive change detection in streaming data with non-stationary distribution

KAUST Repository

Zhang, Xiangliang

2010-01-01

Non-stationary distribution, in which the data distribution evolves over time, is a common issue in many application fields, e.g., intrusion detection and grid computing. Detecting the changes in massive streaming data with a non-stationary distribution helps to alarm the anomalies, to clean the noises, and to report the new patterns. In this paper, we employ a novel approach for detecting changes in streaming data with the purpose of improving the quality of modeling the data streams. Through observing the outliers, this approach of change detection uses a weighted standard deviation to monitor the evolution of the distribution of data streams. A cumulative statistical test, Page-Hinkley, is employed to collect the evidence of changes in distribution. The parameter used for reporting the changes is self-adaptively adjusted according to the distribution of data streams, rather than set by a fixed empirical value. The self-adaptability of the novel approach enhances the effectiveness of modeling data streams by timely catching the changes of distributions. We validated the approach on an online clustering framework with a benchmark KDDcup 1999 intrusion detection data set as well as with a real-world grid data set. The validation results demonstrate its better performance on achieving higher accuracy and lower percentage of outliers comparing to the other change detection approaches. © 2010 Springer-Verlag.

Theoretical analysis of radiographic images by nonstationary Poisson processes

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tanaka, Kazuo; Uchida, Suguru; Yamada, Isao.

1980-01-01

This paper deals with the noise analysis of radiographic images obtained in the usual fluorescent screen-film system. The theory of nonstationary Poisson processes is applied to the analysis of the radiographic images containing the object information. The ensemble averages, the autocorrelation functions, and the Wiener spectrum densities of the light-energy distribution at the fluorescent screen and of the film optical-density distribution are obtained. The detection characteristics of the system are evaluated theoretically. Numerical examples one-dimensional image are shown and the results are compared with those obtained under the assumption that the object image is related to the background noise by the additive process. (author)

Non-stationary vibrations of a thin viscoelastic orthotropic beam

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Adámek, V.; Valeš, František; Tikal, B.

2009-01-01

Roč. 71, č. 12 (2009), e2569-e2576 ISSN 0362-546X R&D Projects: GA ČR(CZ) GA101/07/0946 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z20760514 Keywords : thin beam * non-stationary vibration * analytical solution Subject RIV: BI - Acoustics Impact factor: 1.487, year: 2009 http://www.sciencedirect.com/science?_ob=ArticleURL&_udi=B6V0Y-4WB3N8S-4&_user=640952&_rdoc=1&_fmt=&_orig=search&_sort=d&_docanchor=&view=c&_searchStrId=1156243286&_rerunOrigin= google &_acct=C000034318&_version=1&_urlVersion=0&_userid=640952&md5=ce096901a3382058455e822a20645820

The role of initial values in nonstationary fractional time series models

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Johansen, Søren; Nielsen, Morten Ørregaard

We consider the nonstationary fractional model $\\Delta^{d}X_{t}=\\varepsilon _{t}$ with $\\varepsilon_{t}$ i.i.d.$(0,\\sigma^{2})$ and $d>1/2$. We derive an analytical expression for the main term of the asymptotic bias of the maximum likelihood estimator of $d$ conditional on initial values, and we...... discuss the role of the initial values for the bias. The results are partially extended to other fractional models, and three different applications of the theoretical results are given....

Identification of Non-Stationary Magnetic Field Sources Using the Matching Pursuit Method

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Beata Palczynska

2017-05-01

Full Text Available The measurements of electromagnetic field emissions, performed on board a vessel have showed that, in this specific environment, a high level of non-stationary magnetic fields (MFs is observed. The adaptive time-frequency method can be used successfully to analyze this type of measured signal. It allows one to specify the time interval in which the individual frequency components of the signal occur. In this paper, the method of identification of non-stationary MF sources based on the matching pursuit (MP algorithm is presented. It consists of the decomposition of an examined time-waveform into the linear expansion of chirplet atoms and the analysis of the matrix of their parameters. The main feature of the proposed method is the modification of the chirplet’s matrix in a way that atoms, whose normalized energies are lower than a certain threshold, will be rejected. On the time-frequency planes of the spectrograms, obtained separately for each remaining chirlpet, it can clearly identify the time-frequency structures appearing in the examined signal. The choice of a threshold defines the computing speed and precision of the performed analysis. The method was implemented in the virtual application and used for processing real data, obtained from measurements of time-vary MF emissions onboard a ship.

Around and about an application of the GAMLSS package to non-stationary flood frequency analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Debele, S. E.; Bogdanowicz, E.; Strupczewski, W. G.

2017-08-01

The non-stationarity of hydrologic processes due to climate change or human activities is challenging for the researchers and practitioners. However, the practical requirements for taking into account non-stationarity as a support in decision-making procedures exceed the up-to-date development of the theory and the of software. Currently, the most popular and freely available software package that allows for non-stationary statistical analysis is the GAMLSS (generalized additive models for location, scale and shape) package. GAMLSS has been used in a variety of fields. There are also several papers recommending GAMLSS in hydrological problems; however, there are still important issues which have not previously been discussed concerning mainly GAMLSS applicability not only for research and academic purposes, but also in a design practice. In this paper, we present a summary of our experiences in the implementation of GAMLSS to non-stationary flood frequency analysis, highlighting its advantages and pointing out weaknesses with regard to methodological and practical topics.

Nonstationary behavior in a delayed feedback traveling wave tube folded waveguide oscillator

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ryskin, N.M.; Titov, V.N.; Han, S.T.; So, J.K.; Jang, K.H.; Kang, Y.B.; Park, G.S.

2004-01-01

Folded waveguide traveling-wave tubes (FW TWT) are among the most promising candidates for powerful compact amplifiers and oscillators in millimeter and submillimeter wave bands. In this paper, the nonstationary behavior of a FW TWT oscillator with delayed feedback is investigated. Starting conditions of the oscillations are derived analytically. Results of numerical simulation of single-frequency, self-modulation (multifrequency) and chaotic generation regimes are presented. Mode competition phenomena, multistability and hysteresis are discussed

Magnetization of a warm plasma by the nonstationary ponderomotive force of an electromagnetic wave

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Shukla, Nitin; Shukla, P. K.; Stenflo, L.

2009-01-01

It is shown that magnetic fields can be generated in a warm plasma by the nonstationary ponderomotive force of a large-amplitude electromagnetic wave. In the present Brief Report, we derive simple and explicit results that can be useful for understanding the origin of the magnetic fields that are produced in intense laser-plasma interaction experiments.

Non-stationary ionization in the low ionosphere by gravitational wave action

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nikitin, M.A.; Kashchenko, N.M.

1977-01-01

Non-stationary effects in the lower ionosphere caused by gravitation waves are analyzed. Time dependences are obtained for extremum electron concentrations, which describe the dynamics of heterogeneous layer formation from the initially homogeneous distribution under the effect of gravitation waves. Diffusion of plasma and its complex composition are not taken into account. The problem is solved for two particular cases of low and high frequency gravitation waves impact on the ionosphere. Only in the former case electron concentration in the lower ionosphere deviates considerably from the equilibrium

Partitioning uncertainty in streamflow projections under nonstationary model conditions

Science.gov (United States)

Chawla, Ila; Mujumdar, P. P.

2018-02-01

Assessing the impacts of Land Use (LU) and climate change on future streamflow projections is necessary for efficient management of water resources. However, model projections are burdened with significant uncertainty arising from various sources. Most of the previous studies have considered climate models and scenarios as major sources of uncertainty, but uncertainties introduced by land use change and hydrologic model assumptions are rarely investigated. In this paper an attempt is made to segregate the contribution from (i) general circulation models (GCMs), (ii) emission scenarios, (iii) land use scenarios, (iv) stationarity assumption of the hydrologic model, and (v) internal variability of the processes, to overall uncertainty in streamflow projections using analysis of variance (ANOVA) approach. Generally, most of the impact assessment studies are carried out with unchanging hydrologic model parameters in future. It is, however, necessary to address the nonstationarity in model parameters with changing land use and climate. In this paper, a regression based methodology is presented to obtain the hydrologic model parameters with changing land use and climate scenarios in future. The Upper Ganga Basin (UGB) in India is used as a case study to demonstrate the methodology. The semi-distributed Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model is set-up over the basin, under nonstationary conditions. Results indicate that model parameters vary with time, thereby invalidating the often-used assumption of model stationarity. The streamflow in UGB under the nonstationary model condition is found to reduce in future. The flows are also found to be sensitive to changes in land use. Segregation results suggest that model stationarity assumption and GCMs along with their interactions with emission scenarios, act as dominant sources of uncertainty. This paper provides a generalized framework for hydrologists to examine stationarity assumption of models before considering them

An MILP approximation for ordering perishable products with non-stationary demand and service level constraints

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Pauls-Worm, K.G.J.; Hendrix, E.M.T.; Haijema, R.; Vorst, van der J.G.A.J.

2014-01-01

We study the practical production planning problem of a food producer facing a non-stationary erratic demand for a perishable product with a fixed life time. In meeting the uncertain demand, the food producer uses a FIFO issuing policy. The food producer aims at meeting a certain service level at

Non-Stationary Modelling and Simulation of Near-Source Earthquake Ground Motion

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Skjærbæk, P. S.; Kirkegaard, Poul Henning; Fouskitakis, G. N.

1997-01-01

This paper is concerned with modelling and simulation of near-source earthquake ground motion. Recent studies have revealed that these motions show heavy non-stationary behaviour with very low frequencies dominating parts of the earthquake sequence. Modeling and simulation of this behaviour...... by an epicentral distance of 16 km and measured during the 1979 Imperial Valley earthquake in California (U .S .A.). The results of the study indicate that while all three approaches can successfully predict near-source ground motions, the Neural Network based one gives somewhat poorer simulation results....

Non-Stationary Modelling and Simulation of Near-Source Earthquake Ground Motion

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Skjærbæk, P. S.; Kirkegaard, Poul Henning; Fouskitakis, G. N.

This paper is concerned with modelling and simulation of near-source earthquake ground motion. Recent studies have revealed that these motions show heavy non-stationary behaviour with very low frequencies dominating parts of the earthquake sequence. Modelling and simulation of this behaviour...... by an epicentral distance of 16 km and measured during the 1979 Imperial valley earthquake in California (USA). The results of the study indicate that while all three approaches can succesfully predict near-source ground motions, the Neural Network based one gives somewhat poorer simulation results....

Subroutine MLTGRD: a multigrid algorithm based on multiplicative correction and implicit non-stationary iteration

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Barry, J.M.; Pollard, J.P.

1986-11-01

A FORTRAN subroutine MLTGRD is provided to solve efficiently the large systems of linear equations arising from a five-point finite difference discretisation of some elliptic partial differential equations. MLTGRD is a multigrid algorithm which provides multiplicative correction to iterative solution estimates from successively reduced systems of linear equations. It uses the method of implicit non-stationary iteration for all grid levels

Generalized Predictive Control for Non-Stationary Systems

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Palsson, Olafur Petur; Madsen, Henrik; Søgaard, Henning Tangen

1994-01-01

This paper shows how the generalized predictive control (GPC) can be extended to non-stationary (time-varying) systems. If the time-variation is slow, then the classical GPC can be used in context with an adaptive estimation procedure of a time-invariant ARIMAX model. However, in this paper prior...... knowledge concerning the nature of the parameter variations is assumed available. The GPC is based on the assumption that the prediction of the system output can be expressed as a linear combination of present and future controls. Since the Diophantine equation cannot be used due to the time......-variation of the parameters, the optimal prediction is found as the general conditional expectation of the system output. The underlying model is of an ARMAX-type instead of an ARIMAX-type as in the original version of the GPC (Clarke, D. W., C. Mohtadi and P. S. Tuffs (1987). Automatica, 23, 137-148) and almost all later...

The periodicity of sleep duration – an infradian rhythm in spontaneous living

OpenAIRE

Wong, Shi Ngar; Halaki,Mark; Chow,Chin Moi

2013-01-01

Shi Ngar Wong, Mark Halaki, Chin Moi ChowDiscipline of Exercise and Sport Science, University of Sydney, Sydney, NSW, AustraliaAbstract: The sleep–wake cycle is a process not only dictated by homeostatic and circadian factors but also by social and environmental influences. Thus, the total sleep time partly reflects sleep need, which is integral to the dynamics of sleep loss recovery. This study explored the nature of the observed oscillations in total sleep time in healthy adults u...

Non-stationary Condition Monitoring of large diesel engines with the AEWATT toolbox

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Pontoppidan, Niels Henrik; Larsen, Jan; Sigurdsson, Sigurdur

2005-01-01

We are developing a specialized toolbox for non-stationary condition monitoring of large 2-stroke diesel engines based on acoustic emission measurements. The main contribution of this toolbox has so far been the utilization of adaptive linear models such as Principal and Independent Component Ana......, the inversion of those angular timing changes called “event alignment”, has allowed for condition monitoring across operation load settings, successfully enabling a single model to be used with realistic data under varying operational conditions-...

Distributed Nonstationary Heat Model of Two-Channel Solar Air Heater

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Klychev, Sh. I.; Bakhramov, S. A.; Ismanzhanov, A. I.; Tashiev, N.N.

2011-01-01

An algorithm for a distributed nonstationary heat model of a solar air heater (SAH) with two operating channels is presented. The model makes it possible to determine how the coolant temperature changes with time along the solar air heater channel by considering its main thermal and ambient parameters, as well as variations in efficiency. Examples of calculations are presented. It is shown that the time within which the mean-day efficiency of the solar air heater becomes stable is significantly higher than the time within which the coolant temperature reaches stable values. The model can be used for investigation of the performances of solar water-heating collectors. (authors)

Martingales, nonstationary increments, and the efficient market hypothesis

Science.gov (United States)

McCauley, Joseph L.; Bassler, Kevin E.; Gunaratne, Gemunu H.

2008-06-01

We discuss the deep connection between nonstationary increments, martingales, and the efficient market hypothesis for stochastic processes x(t) with arbitrary diffusion coefficients D(x,t). We explain why a test for a martingale is generally a test for uncorrelated increments. We explain why martingales look Markovian at the level of both simple averages and 2-point correlations. But while a Markovian market has no memory to exploit and cannot be beaten systematically, a martingale admits memory that might be exploitable in higher order correlations. We also use the analysis of this paper to correct a misstatement of the ‘fair game’ condition in terms of serial correlations in Fama’s paper on the EMH. We emphasize that the use of the log increment as a variable in data analysis generates spurious fat tails and spurious Hurst exponents.

MOST-7 program for calculation of nonstationary operation modes of the nuclear steam generating plant with WWER

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mysenkov, A.I.

1979-01-01

The MOST-7 program intended for calculating nonstationary emergency models of a nuclear steam generating plant (NSGP) with a WWER reactor is considered in detail. The program consists of the main MOST-7 subprogram, two main subprograms and 98 subprograms-functions. The MOST-7 program is written in the FORTRAN language and realized at the BESM-6 computer. Program storage capacity in the BESM-6 amounts to 73400 words. Primary information input into the program is carried out by means of information input operator from punched cards and DATA operator. Parameter lists, introduced both from punched cards and by means of DATA operator are tabulated. The procedure of calculational result output into printing and plotting devices is considered. Given is an example of calculating the nonstationary process, related to the loss of power in six main circulating pumps for NSGP with the WWER-440 reactor

Nonstationary frequency analysis of extreme daily precipitation amounts in Southeastern Canada using a peaks-over-threshold approach

Science.gov (United States)

Thiombiano, Alida N.; El Adlouni, Salaheddine; St-Hilaire, André; Ouarda, Taha B. M. J.; El-Jabi, Nassir

2017-07-01

In this paper, a statistical inference of Southeastern Canada extreme daily precipitation amounts is proposed using a classical nonstationary peaks-over-threshold model. Indeed, the generalized Pareto distribution (GPD) is fitted to excess time series derived from annual averages of independent precipitation amount events above a fixed threshold, the 99th percentile. Only the scale parameter of the fitted distribution is allowed to vary as a function of a covariate. This variability is modeled using B-spline function. Nonlinear correlation and cross-wavelet analysis allowed identifying two dominant climate indices as covariates in the study area, Arctic Oscillation (AO) and Pacific North American (PNA). The nonstationary frequency analysis showed that there is an east-west behavior of the AO index effects on extreme daily precipitation amounts in the study area. Indeed, the higher quantiles of these events are conditional to the AO positive phase in Atlantic Canada, while those in the more southeastern part of Canada, especially in Southern Quebec and Ontario, are negatively related to AO. The negative phase of PNA also gives the best significant correlation in these regions. Moreover, a regression analysis between AO (PNA) index and conditional quantiles provided slope values for the positive phase of the index on the one hand and the negative phase and on the other hand. This statistic allows computing a slope ratio which permits to sustain the nonlinear relation assumption between climate indices and precipitation and the development of the nonstationary GPD model for Southeastern Canada extremes precipitation modeling.

Real-Time Emulation of Nonstationary Channels in Safety-Relevant Vehicular Scenarios

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Golsa Ghiaasi

2018-01-01

Full Text Available This paper proposes and discusses the architecture for a real-time vehicular channel emulator capable of reproducing the input/output behavior of nonstationary time-variant radio propagation channels in safety-relevant vehicular scenarios. The vehicular channel emulator architecture aims at a hardware implementation which requires minimal hardware complexity for emulating channels with the varying delay-Doppler characteristics of safety-relevant vehicular scenarios. The varying delay-Doppler characteristics require real-time updates to the multipath propagation model for each local stationarity region. The vehicular channel emulator is used for benchmarking the packet error performance of commercial off-the-shelf (COTS vehicular IEEE 802.11p modems and a fully software-defined radio-based IEEE 802.11p modem stack. The packet error ratio (PER estimated from temporal averaging over a single virtual drive and the packet error probability (PEP estimated from ensemble averaging over repeated virtual drives are evaluated and compared for the same vehicular scenario. The proposed architecture is realized as a virtual instrument on National Instruments™ LabVIEW. The National Instrument universal software radio peripheral with reconfigurable input-output (USRP-Rio 2953R is used as the software-defined radio platform for implementation; however, the results and considerations reported are of general purpose and can be applied to other platforms. Finally, we discuss the PER performance of the modem for two categories of vehicular channel models: a vehicular nonstationary channel model derived for urban single lane street crossing scenario of the DRIVEWAY’09 measurement campaign and the stationary ETSI models.

A Development of Nonstationary Regional Frequency Analysis Model with Large-scale Climate Information: Its Application to Korean Watershed

Science.gov (United States)

Kim, Jin-Young; Kwon, Hyun-Han; Kim, Hung-Soo

2015-04-01

The existing regional frequency analysis has disadvantages in that it is difficult to consider geographical characteristics in estimating areal rainfall. In this regard, this study aims to develop a hierarchical Bayesian model based nonstationary regional frequency analysis in that spatial patterns of the design rainfall with geographical information (e.g. latitude, longitude and altitude) are explicitly incorporated. This study assumes that the parameters of Gumbel (or GEV distribution) are a function of geographical characteristics within a general linear regression framework. Posterior distribution of the regression parameters are estimated by Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method, and the identified functional relationship is used to spatially interpolate the parameters of the distributions by using digital elevation models (DEM) as inputs. The proposed model is applied to derive design rainfalls over the entire Han-river watershed. It was found that the proposed Bayesian regional frequency analysis model showed similar results compared to L-moment based regional frequency analysis. In addition, the model showed an advantage in terms of quantifying uncertainty of the design rainfall and estimating the area rainfall considering geographical information. Finally, comprehensive discussion on design rainfall in the context of nonstationary will be presented. KEYWORDS: Regional frequency analysis, Nonstationary, Spatial information, Bayesian Acknowledgement This research was supported by a grant (14AWMP-B082564-01) from Advanced Water Management Research Program funded by Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport of Korean government.

Teaching geographical hydrology in a non-stationary world

Science.gov (United States)

Hendriks, Martin R.; Karssenberg, Derek

2010-05-01

Understanding hydrological processes in a non-stationary world requires knowledge of hydrological processes and their interactions. Also, one needs to understand the (non-linear) relations between the hydrological system and other parts of our Earth system, such as the climate system, the socio-economic system, and the ecosystem. To provide this knowledge and understanding we think that three components are essential when teaching geographical hydrology. First of all, a student needs to acquire a thorough understanding of classical hydrology. For this, knowledge of the basic hydrological equations, such as the energy equation (Bernoulli), flow equation (Darcy), continuity (or water balance) equation is needed. This, however, is not sufficient to make a student fully understand the interactions between hydrological compartments, or between hydrological subsystems and other parts of the Earth system. Therefore, secondly, a student also needs to be knowledgeable of methods by which the different subsystems can be coupled; in general, numerical models are used for this. A major disadvantage of numerical models is their complexity. A solution may be to use simpler models, provided that a student really understands how hydrological processes function in our real, non-stationary world. The challenge for a student then lies in understanding the interactions between the subsystems, and to be able to answer questions such as: what is the effect of a change in vegetation or land use on runoff? Thirdly, knowledge of field hydrology is of utmost importance. For this a student needs to be trained in the field. Fieldwork is very important as a student is confronted in the field with spatial and temporal variability, as well as with real life uncertainties, rather than being lured into believing the world as presented in hydrological textbooks and models, e.g. the world under study is homogeneous, isotropic, or lumped (averaged). Also, students in the field learn to plan and

Analytic solution of boundary-value problems for nonstationary model kinetic equations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Latyshev, A.V.; Yushkanov, A.A.

1993-01-01

A theory for constructing the solutions of boundary-value problems for non-stationary model kinetic equations is constructed. This theory was incorrectly presented equation, separation of the variables is used, this leading to a characteristic equation. Eigenfunctions are found in the space of generalized functions, and the eigenvalue spectrum is investigated. An existence and uniqueness theorem for the expansion of the Laplace transform of the solution with respect to the eigenfunctions is proved. The proof is constructive and gives explicit expressions for the expansion coefficients. An application to the Rayleigh problem is obtained, and the corresponding result of Cercignani is corrected

A Review of ENSO Influence on the North Atlantic. A Non-Stationary Signal

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Belén Rodríguez-Fonseca

2016-06-01

Full Text Available The atmospheric seasonal cycle of the North Atlantic region is dominated by meridional movements of the circulation systems: from the tropics, where the West African Monsoon and extreme tropical weather events take place, to the extratropics, where the circulation is dominated by seasonal changes in the jetstream and extratropical cyclones. Climate variability over the North Atlantic is controlled by various mechanisms. Atmospheric internal variability plays a crucial role in the mid-latitudes. However, El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO is still the main source of predictability in this region situated far away from the Pacific. Although the ENSO influence over tropical and extra-tropical areas is related to different physical mechanisms, in both regions this teleconnection seems to be non-stationary in time and modulated by multidecadal changes of the mean flow. Nowadays, long observational records (greater than 100 years and modeling projects (e.g., CMIP permit detecting non-stationarities in the influence of ENSO over the Atlantic basin, and further analyzing its potential mechanisms. The present article reviews the ENSO influence over the Atlantic region, paying special attention to the stability of this teleconnection over time and the possible modulators. Evidence is given that the ENSO–Atlantic teleconnection is weak over the North Atlantic. In this regard, the multidecadal ocean variability seems to modulate the presence of teleconnections, which can lead to important impacts of ENSO and to open windows of opportunity for seasonal predictability.

Nonstationary quantum mechanics. 4. Nonadiabatic properties of the Schroedinger equation in adiabatic processes

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Todorov, N S [Low Temperature Department of the Institute of Solid State Physics of the Bulgarian Academy of Sciences, Sofia

1981-04-01

It is shown that the nonstationary Schroedinger equation does not satisfy a well-known adiabatical principle in thermodynamics. A ''renormalization procedure'' based on the possible existence of a time-irreversible basic evolution equation is proposed with the help of which one comes to agreement in a variety of specific cases of an adiabatic inclusion of a perturbing potential. The ideology of the present article rests essentially on the ideology of the preceding articles, in particular article I.

Nonstationary quantum mechanics. IV. Nonadiabatic properties of the Schroedinger equation in adiabatic processes

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Todorov, N S

1981-04-01

It is shown that the nonstationary Schroedinger equation does not satisfy a well-known adiabatical principle in thermodynamics. A ''renormalization procedure'' based on the possible existence of a time-irreversible basic evolution equation is proposed with the help of which one comes to agreement in a variety of specific cases of an adiabatic inclusion of a perturbing potential. The ideology of the present article IV rests essentially on the ideology of the preceding articles, in particular article I.

Efficient Transfer Entropy Analysis of Non-Stationary Neural Time Series

Science.gov (United States)

Vicente, Raul; Díaz-Pernas, Francisco J.; Wibral, Michael

2014-01-01

Information theory allows us to investigate information processing in neural systems in terms of information transfer, storage and modification. Especially the measure of information transfer, transfer entropy, has seen a dramatic surge of interest in neuroscience. Estimating transfer entropy from two processes requires the observation of multiple realizations of these processes to estimate associated probability density functions. To obtain these necessary observations, available estimators typically assume stationarity of processes to allow pooling of observations over time. This assumption however, is a major obstacle to the application of these estimators in neuroscience as observed processes are often non-stationary. As a solution, Gomez-Herrero and colleagues theoretically showed that the stationarity assumption may be avoided by estimating transfer entropy from an ensemble of realizations. Such an ensemble of realizations is often readily available in neuroscience experiments in the form of experimental trials. Thus, in this work we combine the ensemble method with a recently proposed transfer entropy estimator to make transfer entropy estimation applicable to non-stationary time series. We present an efficient implementation of the approach that is suitable for the increased computational demand of the ensemble method's practical application. In particular, we use a massively parallel implementation for a graphics processing unit to handle the computationally most heavy aspects of the ensemble method for transfer entropy estimation. We test the performance and robustness of our implementation on data from numerical simulations of stochastic processes. We also demonstrate the applicability of the ensemble method to magnetoencephalographic data. While we mainly evaluate the proposed method for neuroscience data, we expect it to be applicable in a variety of fields that are concerned with the analysis of information transfer in complex biological, social, and

A New Method for Non-linear and Non-stationary Time Series Analysis:
The Hilbert Spectral Analysis

CERN Multimedia

CERN. Geneva

2000-01-01

A new method for analysing non-linear and non-stationary data has been developed. The key part of the method is the Empirical Mode Decomposition method with which any complicated data set can be decomposed into a finite and often small number of Intrinsic Mode Functions (IMF). An IMF is defined as any function having the same numbers of zero crossing and extreme, and also having symmetric envelopes defined by the local maximal and minima respectively. The IMF also admits well-behaved Hilbert transform. This decomposition method is adaptive, and, therefore, highly efficient. Since the decomposition is based on the local characteristic time scale of the data, it is applicable to non-linear and non-stationary processes. With the Hilbert transform, the Intrinsic Mode Functions yield instantaneous frequencies as functions of time that give sharp identifications of imbedded structures. The final presentation of the results is an energy-frequency-time distribution, designated as the Hilbert Spectrum. Classical non-l...

Real-time reservoir operation considering non-stationary inflow prediction

Science.gov (United States)

Zhao, J.; Xu, W.; Cai, X.; Wang, Z.

2011-12-01

Stationarity of inflow has been a basic assumption for reservoir operation rule design, which is now facing challenges due to climate change and human interferences. This paper proposes a modeling framework to incorporate non-stationary inflow prediction for optimizing the hedging operation rule of large reservoirs with multiple-year flow regulation capacity. A multi-stage optimization model is formulated and a solution algorithm based on the optimality conditions is developed to incorporate non-stationary annual inflow prediction through a rolling, dynamic framework that updates the prediction from period to period and adopt the updated prediction in reservoir operation decision. The prediction model is ARIMA(4,1,0), in which parameter 4 stands for the order of autoregressive, 1 represents a linear trend, and 0 is the order of moving average. The modeling framework and solution algorithm is applied to the Miyun reservoir in China, determining a yearly operating schedule during the period from 1996 to 2009, during which there was a significant declining trend of reservoir inflow. Different operation policy scenarios are modeled, including standard operation policy (SOP, matching the current demand as much as possible), hedging rule (i.e., leaving a certain amount of water for future to avoid large risk of water deficit) with forecast from ARIMA (HR-1), hedging (HR) with perfect forecast (HR-2 ). Compared to the results of these scenarios to that of the actual reservoir operation (AO), the utility of the reservoir operation under HR-1 is 3.0% lower than HR-2, but 3.7% higher than the AO and 14.4% higher than SOP. Note that the utility under AO is 10.3% higher than that under SOP, which shows that a certain level of hedging under some inflow prediction or forecast was used in the real-world operation. Moreover, the impacts of discount rate and forecast uncertainty level on the operation will be discussed.

Likelihood inference for a nonstationary fractional autoregressive model

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Johansen, Søren; Ørregård Nielsen, Morten

2010-01-01

This paper discusses model-based inference in an autoregressive model for fractional processes which allows the process to be fractional of order d or d-b. Fractional differencing involves infinitely many past values and because we are interested in nonstationary processes we model the data X1......,...,X_{T} given the initial values X_{-n}, n=0,1,..., as is usually done. The initial values are not modeled but assumed to be bounded. This represents a considerable generalization relative to all previous work where it is assumed that initial values are zero. For the statistical analysis we assume...... the conditional Gaussian likelihood and for the probability analysis we also condition on initial values but assume that the errors in the autoregressive model are i.i.d. with suitable moment conditions. We analyze the conditional likelihood and its derivatives as stochastic processes in the parameters, including...

A Phase Vocoder Based on Nonstationary Gabor Frames

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Ottosen, Emil Solsbæk; Dörfler, Monika

2017-01-01

We propose a new algorithm for time stretching music signals based on the theory of nonstationary Gabor frames (NSGFs). The algorithm extends the techniques of the classical phase vocoder (PV) by incorporating adaptive timefrequency (TF) representations and adaptive phase locking. The adaptive TF...... representations imply good time resolution for the onsets of attack transients and good frequency resolution for the sinusoidal components. We estimate the phase values only at peak channels and the remaining phases are then locked to the values of the peaks in an adaptive manner. During attack transients we keep...... that with just three times as many TF coefficients as signal samples, artifacts such as phasiness and transient smearing can be greatly reduced compared to the classical PV. The proposed algorithm is tested on both synthetic and real world signals and compared with state of the art algorithms in a reproducible...

Damage of first wall materials in fusion reactors under nonstationary thermal effects

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Maslaev, S.A.; Platonov, Yu.M.; Pimenov, V.N.

1991-01-01

The temperature distribution in the first wall of a fusion reactor was calculated for nonstationary thermal effects of the type of plasma destruction or the flow of 'running electrons' taking into account the melting of the surface layer of the material. The thickness of the resultant damaged layer in which thermal stresses were higher than the tensile strength of the material is estimated. The results were obtained for corrosion-resisting steel, aluminium and vanadium. Flowing down of the molten layer of the material of the first wall is calculated. (author)

Modelling nonstationary thermohydrodynamic processes in heat-exchange circuits with a two-phase coolant

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Blinkov, V.N.

1993-01-01

This paper presents a mathematical model and a open-quotes fastclose quotes computer program for analyzing nonstationary thermohydrodynamic processes in distributed multi-element circuits containing a two-phase coolant. The author's approach is based on representing the distributed multi-element circuits with the two-phase coolant (such as cooling circuits of the reactor of an atomic power station) in the form of equivalent thermohydrodynamic chains composed of idealized elements with the intrinsic properties of the structure elements of real systems. The author has developed the nomenclature of such conceptual elements for objects which can be modelled; the nomenclature encompasses the control volumes (with a single-phase or two-phase coolant or a moving boundary of boiling/condensation) and the branch lines (type of tube and connections in dependence on the inertia of the coolant being taken into account) for a hydrodynamic submodel and the thermal components and lines for a thermal submodel. The mathematical models which have been developed and the program using them are designated for various forms of calculating slow thermohydrodynamic processes in multi-element coolant circuits in reactors and modeling test stands. The program facilitates calculation of the range of stable operation, detailed studies of stationary and nonstationary modes of operation, and forecasts of effective engineering measures to obtain stability with the aid of microcomputers

Modified fluctuation-dissipation theorem for general non-stationary states and application to the Glauber–Ising chain

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Verley, Gatien; Lacoste, David; Chétrite, Raphaël

2011-01-01

In this paper, we present a general derivation of a modified fluctuation-dissipation theorem (MFDT) valid near an arbitrary non-stationary state for a system obeying Markovian dynamics. We show that the method for deriving modified fluctuation-dissipation theorems near non-equilibrium stationary states used by Prost et al (2009 Phys. Rev. Lett. 103 090601) is generalizable to non-stationary states. This result follows from both standard linear response theory and from a transient fluctuation theorem, analogous to the Hatano–Sasa relation. We show that this modified fluctuation-dissipation theorem can be interpreted at the trajectory level using the notion of stochastic trajectory entropy, in a way which is similar to what has been done recently in the case of the MFDT near non-equilibrium steady states (NESS). We illustrate this framework with two solvable examples: the first example corresponds to a Brownian particle in a harmonic trap subjected to a quench of temperature and to a time-dependent stiffness; the second example is a classic model of coarsening systems, namely the 1D Ising model with Glauber dynamics

Trend analysis using non-stationary time series clustering based on the finite element method

Science.gov (United States)

Gorji Sefidmazgi, M.; Sayemuzzaman, M.; Homaifar, A.; Jha, M. K.; Liess, S.

2014-05-01

In order to analyze low-frequency variability of climate, it is useful to model the climatic time series with multiple linear trends and locate the times of significant changes. In this paper, we have used non-stationary time series clustering to find change points in the trends. Clustering in a multi-dimensional non-stationary time series is challenging, since the problem is mathematically ill-posed. Clustering based on the finite element method (FEM) is one of the methods that can analyze multidimensional time series. One important attribute of this method is that it is not dependent on any statistical assumption and does not need local stationarity in the time series. In this paper, it is shown how the FEM-clustering method can be used to locate change points in the trend of temperature time series from in situ observations. This method is applied to the temperature time series of North Carolina (NC) and the results represent region-specific climate variability despite higher frequency harmonics in climatic time series. Next, we investigated the relationship between the climatic indices with the clusters/trends detected based on this clustering method. It appears that the natural variability of climate change in NC during 1950-2009 can be explained mostly by AMO and solar activity.

Internal and external moisture transport resistance during non-stationary adsorption of moisture into wood

OpenAIRE

Bučar, Bojan

2007-01-01

The assumption that non-stationary sorption processes associated with wood canbe evaluated by analysis of their transient system response to the disturbance developed is undoubtedly correct. In general it is, in fact, possible to obtain by time analysis of the transient phenomenon - involving the transition into an arbitrary new state of equilibrium - all data required for a credible evaluation of the observed system. Evaluation of moisture movement during drying or moistening requires determ...

On the dynamics of non-stationary binary stellar system with non-isotropic mass flow

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bekov, A.A.; Bejsekov, A.N.; Aldibaeva, L.T.

2006-01-01

The motion of test body in the external gravitational field of the binary stellar systems with slowly variable some physical parameters of radiating components is considered on the base of restricted nonstationary photo-gravitational three and two bodies problem with non-isotropic mass flow. The family of polar and coplanar solutions are obtained. The solutions give the possibility of the dynamical and structure interpretation of binary young evolving stars and galaxies. (author)

Nonstationary signals phase-energy approach-theory and simulations

CERN Document Server

Klein, R; Braun, S; 10.1006/mssp.2001.1398

2001-01-01

Modern time-frequency methods are intended to deal with a variety of nonstationary signals. One specific class, prevalent in the area of rotating machines, is that of harmonic signals of varying frequencies and amplitude. This paper presents a new adaptive phase-energy (APE) approach for time-frequency representation of varying harmonic signals. It is based on the concept of phase (frequency) paths and the instantaneous power spectral density (PSD). It is this path which represents the dynamic behaviour of the system generating the observed signal. The proposed method utilises dynamic filters based on an extended Nyquist theorem, enabling extraction of signal components with optimal signal-to-noise ratio. The APE detects the most energetic harmonic components (frequency paths) in the analysed signal. Tests on simulated signals show the superiority of the APE in resolution and resolving power as compared to STFT and wavelets wave- packet decomposition. The dynamic filters also enable the reconstruction of the ...

Faster Simulation Methods for the Nonstationary Random Vibrations of Non-linear MDOF Systems

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Askar, A.; Köylüo, U.; Nielsen, Søren R.K.

1996-01-01

subject to nonstationary Gaussian white noise excitation, as an alternative to conventional direct simulation methods. These alternative simulation procedures rely on an assumption of local Gaussianity during each time step. This assumption is tantamount to various linearizations of the equations....... Such a treatment offers higher rates of convergence, faster speed and higher accuracy. These procedures are compared to the direct Monte Carlo simulation procedure, which uses a fourth order Runge-Kutta scheme with the white noise process approximated by a broad band Ruiz-Penzien broken line process...

Is the Labour Force Participation Rate Non-Stationary in Romania?

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Tiwari Aviral Kumar

2015-01-01

Full Text Available The purpose of this paper is to test hysteresis of the Romanian labour force participation rate, by using time series data, with quarterly frequency, covering the period 1999Q1-2013Q4. The main results reveal that the Romanian labour force participation rate is a nonlinear process and has a partial unit root (i.e. it is stationary in the first regime and non-stationary in the second one, the main breaking point being registered around year 2005. In this context, the value of using unemployment rate as an indicator for capturing joblessness in this country is debatable. Starting from 2005, the participation rate has not followed long-term changes in unemployment rate, the disturbances having permanent effects on labour force participation rate.

Robust suppression of nonstationary power-line interference in electrocardiogram signals

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Li, Guojun; Zeng, Xiaopin; Zhou, Yu; Liu, Guojin; Zhou, Xichuan; Zhou, Xiaona

2012-01-01

It is a challenge to suppress time-varying power-line interference (PLI) with various levels in electrocardiogram (ECG) signals. Most previous attempts of tracking and suppressing the nonstationary PLI signal are based on the least-squares (LS) algorithm. This makes these methods susceptible to QRS complex in suppressing a low-level PLI signal which is frequently coupled in battery-operated ECG equipment. To address the limitation of LS-based methods, this study presents a robust PLI suppression system based on a robust extension of the Kalman filter. In addition, we used an improved version of empirical mode decomposition to further attenuate the QRS complex. Experiments show that our system could effectively suppress the PLI while preserving meaningful ECG components at various interference levels. (paper)

Reduction of Non-stationary Noise using a Non-negative Latent Variable Decomposition

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Schmidt, Mikkel Nørgaard; Larsen, Jan

2008-01-01

We present a method for suppression of non-stationary noise in single channel recordings of speech. The method is based on a non-negative latent variable decomposition model for the speech and noise signals, learned directly from a noisy mixture. In non-speech regions an over complete basis...... is learned for the noise that is then used to jointly estimate the speech and the noise from the mixture. We compare the method to the classical spectral subtraction approach, where the noise spectrum is estimated as the average over non-speech frames. The proposed method significantly outperforms...

Identification of the structure parameters using short-time non-stationary stochastic excitation

Science.gov (United States)

Jarczewska, Kamila; Koszela, Piotr; Śniady, PaweŁ; Korzec, Aleksandra

2011-07-01

In this paper, we propose an approach to the flexural stiffness or eigenvalue frequency identification of a linear structure using a non-stationary stochastic excitation process. The idea of the proposed approach lies within time domain input-output methods. The proposed method is based on transforming the dynamical problem into a static one by integrating the input and the output signals. The output signal is the structure reaction, i.e. structure displacements due to the short-time, irregular load of random type. The systems with single and multiple degrees of freedom, as well as continuous systems are considered.

Detection of unusual events and trends in complex non-stationary data streams

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Charlton-Perez, C.; Perez, R.B.; Protopopescu, V.; Worley, B.A.

2011-01-01

The search for unusual events and trends hidden in multi-component, nonlinear, non-stationary, noisy signals is extremely important for diverse applications, ranging from power plant operation to homeland security. In the context of this work, we define an unusual event as a local signal disturbance and a trend as a continuous carrier of information added to and different from the underlying baseline dynamics. The goal of this paper is to investigate the feasibility of detecting hidden events inside intermittent signal data sets corrupted by high levels of noise, by using the Hilbert-Huang empirical mode decomposition method.

Flood frequency analysis of historical flood data under stationary and non-stationary modelling

Science.gov (United States)

Machado, M. J.; Botero, B. A.; López, J.; Francés, F.; Díez-Herrero, A.; Benito, G.

2015-06-01

Historical records are an important source of information on extreme and rare floods and fundamental to establish a reliable flood return frequency. The use of long historical records for flood frequency analysis brings in the question of flood stationarity, since climatic and land-use conditions can affect the relevance of past flooding as a predictor of future flooding. In this paper, a detailed 400 yr flood record from the Tagus River in Aranjuez (central Spain) was analysed under stationary and non-stationary flood frequency approaches, to assess their contribution within hazard studies. Historical flood records in Aranjuez were obtained from documents (Proceedings of the City Council, diaries, chronicles, memoirs, etc.), epigraphic marks, and indirect historical sources and reports. The water levels associated with different floods (derived from descriptions or epigraphic marks) were computed into discharge values using a one-dimensional hydraulic model. Secular variations in flood magnitude and frequency, found to respond to climate and environmental drivers, showed a good correlation between high values of historical flood discharges and a negative mode of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index. Over the systematic gauge record (1913-2008), an abrupt change on flood magnitude was produced in 1957 due to constructions of three major reservoirs in the Tagus headwaters (Bolarque, Entrepeñas and Buendia) controlling 80% of the watershed surface draining to Aranjuez. Two different models were used for the flood frequency analysis: (a) a stationary model estimating statistical distributions incorporating imprecise and categorical data based on maximum likelihood estimators, and (b) a time-varying model based on "generalized additive models for location, scale and shape" (GAMLSS) modelling, which incorporates external covariates related to climate variability (NAO index) and catchment hydrology factors (in this paper a reservoir index; RI). Flood frequency

Wavelet analysis of nonstationary fluctuations of Monte Carlo-simulated excitatory postsynaptic currents.

Science.gov (United States)

Aristizabal, F; Glavinovic, M I

2003-10-01

Tracking spectral changes of rapidly varying signals is a demanding task. In this study, we explore on Monte Carlo-simulated glutamate-activated AMPA patch and synaptic currents whether a wavelet analysis offers such a possibility. Unlike Fourier methods that determine only the frequency content of a signal, the wavelet analysis determines both the frequency and the time. This is owing to the nature of the basis functions, which are infinite for Fourier transforms (sines and cosines are infinite), but are finite for wavelet analysis (wavelets are localized waves). In agreement with previous reports, the frequency of the stationary patch current fluctuations is higher for larger currents, whereas the mean-variance plots are parabolic. The spectra of the current fluctuations and mean-variance plots are close to the theoretically predicted values. The median frequency of the synaptic and nonstationary patch currents is, however, time dependent, though at the peak of synaptic currents, the median frequency is insensitive to the number of glutamate molecules released. Such time dependence demonstrates that the "composite spectra" of the current fluctuations gathered over the whole duration of synaptic currents cannot be used to assess the mean open time or effective mean open time of AMPA channels. The current (patch or synaptic) versus median frequency plots show hysteresis. The median frequency is thus not a simple reflection of the overall receptor saturation levels and is greater during the rise phase for the same saturation level. The hysteresis is due to the higher occupancy of the doubly bound state during the rise phase and not due to the spatial spread of the saturation disk, which remains remarkably constant. Albeit time dependent, the variance of the synaptic and nonstationary patch currents can be accurately determined. Nevertheless the evaluation of the number of AMPA channels and their single current from the mean-variance plots of patch or synaptic

Developing a complex independent component analysis technique to extract non-stationary patterns from geophysical time-series

Science.gov (United States)

Forootan, Ehsan; Kusche, Jürgen

2016-04-01

Geodetic/geophysical observations, such as the time series of global terrestrial water storage change or sea level and temperature change, represent samples of physical processes and therefore contain information about complex physical interactionswith many inherent time scales. Extracting relevant information from these samples, for example quantifying the seasonality of a physical process or its variability due to large-scale ocean-atmosphere interactions, is not possible by rendering simple time series approaches. In the last decades, decomposition techniques have found increasing interest for extracting patterns from geophysical observations. Traditionally, principal component analysis (PCA) and more recently independent component analysis (ICA) are common techniques to extract statistical orthogonal (uncorrelated) and independent modes that represent the maximum variance of observations, respectively. PCA and ICA can be classified as stationary signal decomposition techniques since they are based on decomposing the auto-covariance matrix or diagonalizing higher (than two)-order statistical tensors from centered time series. However, the stationary assumption is obviously not justifiable for many geophysical and climate variables even after removing cyclic components e.g., the seasonal cycles. In this paper, we present a new decomposition method, the complex independent component analysis (CICA, Forootan, PhD-2014), which can be applied to extract to non-stationary (changing in space and time) patterns from geophysical time series. Here, CICA is derived as an extension of real-valued ICA (Forootan and Kusche, JoG-2012), where we (i) define a new complex data set using a Hilbert transformation. The complex time series contain the observed values in their real part, and the temporal rate of variability in their imaginary part. (ii) An ICA algorithm based on diagonalization of fourth-order cumulants is then applied to decompose the new complex data set in (i

A fully three-dimensional reconstruction algorithm with the nonstationary filter for improved single-orbit cone beam SPECT

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cao, Z.J.; Tsui, B.M.

1993-01-01

Conventional single-orbit cone beam tomography presents special problems. They include incomplete sampling and inadequate three-dimensional (3D) reconstruction algorithm. The commonly used Feldkamp reconstruction algorithm simply extends the two-dimensional (2D) fan beam algorithm to 3D cone beam geometry. A truly 3D reconstruction formulation has been derived for the single-orbit cone beam SPECT based on the 3D Fourier slice theorem. In the formulation, a nonstationary filter which depends on the distance from the central plane of the cone beam was derived. The filter is applied to the 2D projection data in directions along and normal to the axis-of-rotation. The 3D reconstruction algorithm with the nonstationary filter was evaluated using both computer simulation and experimental measurements. Significant improvement in image quality was demonstrated in terms of decreased artifacts and distortions in cone beam reconstructed images. However, compared with the Feldkamp algorithm, a five-fold increase in processing time is required. Further improvement in image quality needs complete sampling in frequency space

Nonstationary thermal field in the parallelepiped in the mode of heat conduction under boundary conditions of first kind

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

V. K. Bityukov

2016-01-01

Full Text Available Analytical study of the processes of heat conduction is one of the main topics of modern engineering research in engineering, energy, nuclear industry, process chemical, construction, textile, food, geological and other industries. Suffice to say that almost all processes in one degree or another are related to change in the temperature condition and the transfer of warmth. It should also be noted that engineering studies of the kinetics of a range of physical and chemical processes are similar to the problems of stationary and nonstationary heat transfer. These include the processes of diffusions, sedimentation, viscous flow, slowing down the neutrons, flow of fluids through a porous medium, electric fluctuations, adsorption, drying, burning, etc. There are various methods for solving the classical boundary value problems of nonstationary heat conduction and problems of the generalized type: the method of separation of variables (Fourier method method; the continuation method; the works solutions; the Duhamel's method; the integral transformations method; the operating method; the method of green's functions (stationary and non-stationary thermal conductivity; the reflection method (method source. In this paper, based on the consistent application of the Laplace transform on the dimensionless time θ and finite sine integral transformation in the spatial coordinates X and Y solves the problem of unsteady temperature distribution on the mechanism of heat conduction in a parallelepiped with boundary conditions of first kind. As a result we have the analytical solution of the temperature distribution in the parallelepiped to a conductive mode free convection, when one of the side faces of the parallelepiped is maintained at a constant temperature, and the others with the another same constant temperature.

METHOD OF CALCULATION OF THE NON-STATIONARY TEMPERATURE FIELD INSIDE OF THERMAL PACKED BED ENERGY STORAGE

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ermuratschii V.V.

2014-04-01

Full Text Available e paper presents a method of the approximate calculation of the non-stationary temperature field inside of thermal packed bed energy storages with feasible and latent heat. Applying thermoelectric models and computational methods in electrical engineering, the task of computing non-stationary heat transfer is resolved with respect to third type boundary conditions without applying differential equations of the heat transfer. For sub-volumes of the energy storage the method is executed iteratively in spatiotemporal domain. Single-body heating is modeled for each sub-volume, and modeling conditions are assumed to be identical for remained bod-ies, located in the same sub-volume. For each iteration step the boundary conditions will be represented by re-sults at the previous step. The fulfillment of the first law of thermodynamics for system “energy storage - body” is obtained by the iterative search of the mean temperature of the energy storage. Under variable boundary con-ditions the proposed method maybe applied to calculating temperature field inside of energy storages with packed beds consisted of solid material, liquid and phase-change material. The method may also be employed to compute transient, power and performance characteristics of packed bed energy storages.

Estimating return levels from maxima of non-stationary random sequences using the Generalized PWM method

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

P. Ribereau

2008-12-01

Full Text Available Since the pioneering work of Landwehr et al. (1979, Hosking et al. (1985 and their collaborators, the Probability Weighted Moments (PWM method has been very popular, simple and efficient to estimate the parameters of the Generalized Extreme Value (GEV distribution when modeling the distribution of maxima (e.g., annual maxima of precipitations in the Identically and Independently Distributed (IID context. When the IID assumption is not satisfied, a flexible alternative, the Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE approach offers an elegant way to handle non-stationarities by letting the GEV parameters to be time dependent. Despite its qualities, the MLE applied to the GEV distribution does not always provide accurate return level estimates, especially for small sample sizes or heavy tails. These drawbacks are particularly true in some non-stationary situations. To reduce these negative effects, we propose to extend the PWM method to a more general framework that enables us to model temporal covariates and provide accurate GEV-based return levels. Theoretical properties of our estimators are discussed. Small and moderate sample sizes simulations in a non-stationary context are analyzed and two brief applications to annual maxima of CO₂ and seasonal maxima of cumulated daily precipitations are presented.

Bi-spectrum based-EMD applied to the non-stationary vibration signals for bearing faults diagnosis.

Science.gov (United States)

Saidi, Lotfi; Ali, Jaouher Ben; Fnaiech, Farhat

2014-09-01

Empirical mode decomposition (EMD) has been widely applied to analyze vibration signals behavior for bearing failures detection. Vibration signals are almost always non-stationary since bearings are inherently dynamic (e.g., speed and load condition change over time). By using EMD, the complicated non-stationary vibration signal is decomposed into a number of stationary intrinsic mode functions (IMFs) based on the local characteristic time scale of the signal. Bi-spectrum, a third-order statistic, helps to identify phase coupling effects, the bi-spectrum is theoretically zero for Gaussian noise and it is flat for non-Gaussian white noise, consequently the bi-spectrum analysis is insensitive to random noise, which are useful for detecting faults in induction machines. Utilizing the advantages of EMD and bi-spectrum, this article proposes a joint method for detecting such faults, called bi-spectrum based EMD (BSEMD). First, original vibration signals collected from accelerometers are decomposed by EMD and a set of IMFs is produced. Then, the IMF signals are analyzed via bi-spectrum to detect outer race bearing defects. The procedure is illustrated with the experimental bearing vibration data. The experimental results show that BSEMD techniques can effectively diagnosis bearing failures. Copyright © 2014 ISA. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A Nonstationary Markov Model Detects Directional Evolution in Hymenopteran Morphology.

Science.gov (United States)

Klopfstein, Seraina; Vilhelmsen, Lars; Ronquist, Fredrik

2015-11-01

Directional evolution has played an important role in shaping the morphological, ecological, and molecular diversity of life. However, standard substitution models assume stationarity of the evolutionary process over the time scale examined, thus impeding the study of directionality. Here we explore a simple, nonstationary model of evolution for discrete data, which assumes that the state frequencies at the root differ from the equilibrium frequencies of the homogeneous evolutionary process along the rest of the tree (i.e., the process is nonstationary, nonreversible, but homogeneous). Within this framework, we develop a Bayesian approach for testing directional versus stationary evolution using a reversible-jump algorithm. Simulations show that when only data from extant taxa are available, the success in inferring directionality is strongly dependent on the evolutionary rate, the shape of the tree, the relative branch lengths, and the number of taxa. Given suitable evolutionary rates (0.1-0.5 expected substitutions between root and tips), accounting for directionality improves tree inference and often allows correct rooting of the tree without the use of an outgroup. As an empirical test, we apply our method to study directional evolution in hymenopteran morphology. We focus on three character systems: wing veins, muscles, and sclerites. We find strong support for a trend toward loss of wing veins and muscles, while stationarity cannot be ruled out for sclerites. Adding fossil and time information in a total-evidence dating approach, we show that accounting for directionality results in more precise estimates not only of the ancestral state at the root of the tree, but also of the divergence times. Our model relaxes the assumption of stationarity and reversibility by adding a minimum of additional parameters, and is thus well suited to studying the nature of the evolutionary process in data sets of limited size, such as morphology and ecology. © The Author

Three-dimensional simulation of nonstationary flow phenomena in last stage. Exhaust hood compartment and its elements

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Solodov, V G [Kharkov State Automobile and Highway Technical University, Theoretical Mechanics and Hydraulics Department, Kharkov (Ukraine)

1998-12-31

The article describes numerical models and some results of numerical simulation of self-excited oscillatory flow regimes through exhaust diffusers of large steam turbines, operating as a part of compartment (jointly with last stage). The modelling is based on a model of ideal gas flow and full nonstationary 3D formulation and 2nd time and space order explicit Godunov`s scheme. (author) 11 refs.

Three-dimensional simulation of nonstationary flow phenomena in last stage. Exhaust hood compartment and its elements

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Solodov, V.G. [Kharkov State Automobile and Highway Technical University, Theoretical Mechanics and Hydraulics Department, Kharkov (Ukraine)

1997-12-31

The article describes numerical models and some results of numerical simulation of self-excited oscillatory flow regimes through exhaust diffusers of large steam turbines, operating as a part of compartment (jointly with last stage). The modelling is based on a model of ideal gas flow and full nonstationary 3D formulation and 2nd time and space order explicit Godunov`s scheme. (author) 11 refs.

Enhancement of Non-Stationary Speech using Harmonic Chirp Filters

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Nørholm, Sidsel Marie; Jensen, Jesper Rindom; Christensen, Mads Græsbøll

2015-01-01

In this paper, the issue of single channel speech enhancement of non-stationary voiced speech is addressed. The non-stationarity of speech is well known, but state of the art speech enhancement methods assume stationarity within frames of 20–30 ms. We derive optimal distortionless filters that take...... the non-stationarity nature of voiced speech into account via linear constraints. This is facilitated by imposing a harmonic chirp model on the speech signal. As an implicit part of the filter design, the noise statistics are also estimated based on the observed signal and parameters of the harmonic chirp...... model. Simulations on real speech show that the chirp based filters perform better than their harmonic counterparts. Further, it is seen that the gain of using the chirp model increases when the estimated chirp parameter is big corresponding to periods in the signal where the instantaneous fundamental...

Faster Simulation Methods for the Non-Stationary Random Vibrations of Non-Linear MDOF Systems

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Askar, A.; Köylüoglu, H. U.; Nielsen, Søren R. K.

subject to nonstationary Gaussian white noise excitation, as an alternative to conventional direct simulation methods. These alternative simulation procedures rely on an assumption of local Gaussianity during each time step. This assumption is tantamount to various linearizations of the equations....... Such a treatment offers higher rates of convergence, faster speed and higher accuracy. These procedures are compared to the direct Monte Carlo simulation procedure, which uses a fourth order Runge-Kutta scheme with the white noise process approximated by a broad band Ruiz-Penzien broken line process...

On Holo-Hilbert spectral analysis: a full informational spectral representation for nonlinear and non-stationary data

OpenAIRE

Huang, Norden E.; Hu, Kun; Yang, Albert C. C.; Chang, Hsing-Chih; Jia, Deng; Liang, Wei-Kuang; Yeh, Jia Rong; Kao, Chu-Lan; Juan, Chi-Hung; Peng, Chung Kang; Meijer, Johanna H.; Wang, Yung-Hung; Long, Steven R.; Wu, Zhauhua

2016-01-01

The Holo-Hilbert spectral analysis (HHSA) method is introduced to cure the deficiencies of traditional spectral analysis and to give a full informational representation of nonlinear and non-stationary data. It uses a nested empirical mode decomposition and Hilbert–Huang transform (HHT) approach to identify intrinsic amplitude and frequency modulations often present in nonlinear systems. Comparisons are first made with traditional spectrum analysis, which usually achieved its results through c...

Nonstationary heat and mass transfer in the multilayer building construction with ventilation channels

Science.gov (United States)

Kharkov, N. S.

2017-11-01

Results of numerical modeling of the coupled nonstationary heat and mass transfer problem under conditions of a convective flow in facade system of a three-layer concrete panel for two different constructions (with ventilation channels and without) are presented. The positive effect of ventilation channels on the energy and humidity regime over a period of 12 months is shown. Used new method of replacement a solid zone (requiring specification of porosity and material structure, what complicates process of convergence of the solution) on quasi-solid in form of a multicomponent mixture (with restrictions on convection and mass fractions).

Heat transfer and hydrodynamics of nonstationary dispersed-film flow in complex shape channels

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nigmatulin, B.I.; Klebanov, L.A.; Kroshilin, A.E.; Kroshilin, V.E.

1980-01-01

The mathematical model has been used to investigate the dispersed-film regime of a liquid flow and condition for the appearance of heat transfer crisis. One-dimensional motion equations are used for each component of the mixture. The model developed is used to describe the hydrodynamics and the crisis of heat transfer in rod bundles and round tubes under stationary and nonstationary conditions. The account of a separate flow of a liquid film and a vapourdrop nucleus permits to describe the main regularities of a dispersed film flow. A good agreement of calculation and experimental results is obtained [ru

Coupling detrended fluctuation analysis for analyzing coupled nonstationary signals

Science.gov (United States)

Hedayatifar, L.; Vahabi, M.; Jafari, G. R.

2011-08-01

When many variables are coupled to each other, a single case study could not give us thorough and precise information. When these time series are stationary, different methods of random matrix analysis and complex networks can be used. But, in nonstationary cases, the multifractal-detrended-cross-correlation-analysis (MF-DXA) method was introduced for just two coupled time series. In this article, we have extended the MF-DXA to the method of coupling detrended fluctuation analysis (CDFA) for the case when more than two series are correlated to each other. Here, we have calculated the multifractal properties of the coupled time series, and by comparing CDFA results of the original series with those of the shuffled and surrogate series, we can estimate the source of multifractality and the extent to which our series are coupled to each other. We illustrate the method by selected examples from air pollution and foreign exchange rates.

Gravitational entropy of nonstationary black holes and spherical shells

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hiscock, W.A.

1989-01-01

The problem of defining the gravitational entropy of a nonstationary black hole is considered in a simple model consisting of a spherical shell which collapses into a preexisting black hole. The second law of black-hole mechanics strongly suggests identifying one-quarter of the area of the event horizon as the gravitational entropy of the system. It is, however, impossible to accurately locate the position of the global event horizon using only local measurements. In order to maintain a local thermodynamics, it is suggested that the entropy of the black hole be identified with one-quarter the area of the apparent horizon. The difference between the event-horizon entropy (to the extent it can be determined) and the apparent-horizon entropy may then be interpreted as the gravitational entropy of the collapsing shell. The total (event-horizon) gravitational entropy evolves in a smooth (C 0 ) fashion, even in the presence of δ-functional shells of matter

Simulation of nonstationary phenomena in atmospheric-pressure glow discharge

Science.gov (United States)

Korolev, Yu. D.; Frants, O. B.; Nekhoroshev, V. O.; Suslov, A. I.; Kas'yanov, V. S.; Shemyakin, I. A.; Bolotov, A. V.

2016-06-01

Nonstationary processes in atmospheric-pressure glow discharge manifest themselves in spontaneous transitions from the normal glow discharge into a spark. In the experiments, both so-called completed transitions in which a highly conductive constricted channel arises and incomplete transitions accompanied by the formation of a diffuse channel are observed. A model of the positive column of a discharge in air is elaborated that allows one to interpret specific features of the discharge both in the stationary stage and during its transition into a spark and makes it possible to calculate the characteristic oscillatory current waveforms for completed transitions into a spark and aperiodic ones for incomplete transitions. The calculated parameters of the positive column in the glow discharge mode agree well with experiment. Data on the densities of the most abundant species generated in the discharge (such as atomic oxygen, metastable nitrogen molecules, ozone, nitrogen oxides, and negative oxygen ions) are presented.

Simulation of nonstationary phenomena in atmospheric-pressure glow discharge

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Korolev, Yu. D.; Frants, O. B.; Nekhoroshev, V. O.; Suslov, A. I.; Kas’yanov, V. S.; Shemyakin, I. A.; Bolotov, A. V.

2016-01-01

Nonstationary processes in atmospheric-pressure glow discharge manifest themselves in spontaneous transitions from the normal glow discharge into a spark. In the experiments, both so-called completed transitions in which a highly conductive constricted channel arises and incomplete transitions accompanied by the formation of a diffuse channel are observed. A model of the positive column of a discharge in air is elaborated that allows one to interpret specific features of the discharge both in the stationary stage and during its transition into a spark and makes it possible to calculate the characteristic oscillatory current waveforms for completed transitions into a spark and aperiodic ones for incomplete transitions. The calculated parameters of the positive column in the glow discharge mode agree well with experiment. Data on the densities of the most abundant species generated in the discharge (such as atomic oxygen, metastable nitrogen molecules, ozone, nitrogen oxides, and negative oxygen ions) are presented.

Seasonal Cycle in German Daily Precipitation Extremes

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Madlen Fischer

2018-01-01

Full Text Available The seasonal cycle of extreme precipitation in Germany is investigated by fitting statistical models to monthly maxima of daily precipitation sums for 2,865 rain gauges. The basis is a non-stationary generalized extreme value (GEV distribution variation of location and scale parameters. The negative log-likelihood serves as the forecast error for a cross validation to select adequate orders of the harmonic functions for each station. For nearly all gauges considered, the seasonal model is more appropriate to estimate return levels on a monthly scale than a stationary GEV used for individual months. The 100-year return-levels show the influence of cyclones in the western, and convective events in the eastern part of Germany. In addition to resolving the seasonality, we use a simulation study to show that annual return levels can be estimated more precisely from a monthly-resolved seasonal model than from a stationary model based on annual maxima.

Rerouting of carbon flux in a glycogen mutant of cyanobacteria assessed via isotopically non-stationary 13 C metabolic flux analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Hendry, John I; Prasannan, Charulata; Ma, Fangfang; Möllers, K Benedikt; Jaiswal, Damini; Digmurti, Madhuri; Allen, Doug K; Frigaard, Niels-Ulrik; Dasgupta, Santanu; Wangikar, Pramod P

2017-10-01

Cyanobacteria, which constitute a quantitatively dominant phylum, have attracted attention in biofuel applications due to favorable physiological characteristics, high photosynthetic efficiency and amenability to genetic manipulations. However, quantitative aspects of cyanobacterial metabolism have received limited attention. In the present study, we have performed isotopically non-stationary 13 C metabolic flux analysis (INST- 13 C-MFA) to analyze rerouting of carbon in a glycogen synthase deficient mutant strain (glgA-I glgA-II) of the model cyanobacterium Synechococcus sp. PCC 7002. During balanced photoautotrophic growth, 10-20% of the fixed carbon is stored in the form of glycogen via a pathway that is conserved across the cyanobacterial phylum. Our results show that deletion of glycogen synthase gene orchestrates cascading effects on carbon distribution in various parts of the metabolic network. Carbon that was originally destined to be incorporated into glycogen gets partially diverted toward alternate storage molecules such as glucosylglycerol and sucrose. The rest is partitioned within the metabolic network, primarily via glycolysis and tricarboxylic acid cycle. A lowered flux toward carbohydrate synthesis and an altered distribution at the glucose-1-phosphate node indicate flexibility in the network. Further, reversibility of glycogen biosynthesis reactions points toward the presence of futile cycles. Similar redistribution of carbon was also predicted by Flux Balance Analysis. The results are significant to metabolic engineering efforts with cyanobacteria where fixed carbon needs to be re-routed to products of interest. Biotechnol. Bioeng. 2017;114: 2298-2308. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Predicting critical transitions in dynamical systems from time series using nonstationary probability density modeling.

Science.gov (United States)

Kwasniok, Frank

2013-11-01

A time series analysis method for predicting the probability density of a dynamical system is proposed. A nonstationary parametric model of the probability density is estimated from data within a maximum likelihood framework and then extrapolated to forecast the future probability density and explore the system for critical transitions or tipping points. A full systematic account of parameter uncertainty is taken. The technique is generic, independent of the underlying dynamics of the system. The method is verified on simulated data and then applied to prediction of Arctic sea-ice extent.

Sampling design optimisation for rainfall prediction using a non-stationary geostatistical model

Science.gov (United States)

Wadoux, Alexandre M. J.-C.; Brus, Dick J.; Rico-Ramirez, Miguel A.; Heuvelink, Gerard B. M.

2017-09-01

The accuracy of spatial predictions of rainfall by merging rain-gauge and radar data is partly determined by the sampling design of the rain-gauge network. Optimising the locations of the rain-gauges may increase the accuracy of the predictions. Existing spatial sampling design optimisation methods are based on minimisation of the spatially averaged prediction error variance under the assumption of intrinsic stationarity. Over the past years, substantial progress has been made to deal with non-stationary spatial processes in kriging. Various well-documented geostatistical models relax the assumption of stationarity in the mean, while recent studies show the importance of considering non-stationarity in the variance for environmental processes occurring in complex landscapes. We optimised the sampling locations of rain-gauges using an extension of the Kriging with External Drift (KED) model for prediction of rainfall fields. The model incorporates both non-stationarity in the mean and in the variance, which are modelled as functions of external covariates such as radar imagery, distance to radar station and radar beam blockage. Spatial predictions are made repeatedly over time, each time recalibrating the model. The space-time averaged KED variance was minimised by Spatial Simulated Annealing (SSA). The methodology was tested using a case study predicting daily rainfall in the north of England for a one-year period. Results show that (i) the proposed non-stationary variance model outperforms the stationary variance model, and (ii) a small but significant decrease of the rainfall prediction error variance is obtained with the optimised rain-gauge network. In particular, it pays off to place rain-gauges at locations where the radar imagery is inaccurate, while keeping the distribution over the study area sufficiently uniform.

Can we identify non-stationary dynamics of trial-to-trial variability?

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Emili Balaguer-Ballester

Full Text Available Identifying sources of the apparent variability in non-stationary scenarios is a fundamental problem in many biological data analysis settings. For instance, neurophysiological responses to the same task often vary from each repetition of the same experiment (trial to the next. The origin and functional role of this observed variability is one of the fundamental questions in neuroscience. The nature of such trial-to-trial dynamics however remains largely elusive to current data analysis approaches. A range of strategies have been proposed in modalities such as electro-encephalography but gaining a fundamental insight into latent sources of trial-to-trial variability in neural recordings is still a major challenge. In this paper, we present a proof-of-concept study to the analysis of trial-to-trial variability dynamics founded on non-autonomous dynamical systems. At this initial stage, we evaluate the capacity of a simple statistic based on the behaviour of trajectories in classification settings, the trajectory coherence, in order to identify trial-to-trial dynamics. First, we derive the conditions leading to observable changes in datasets generated by a compact dynamical system (the Duffing equation. This canonical system plays the role of a ubiquitous model of non-stationary supervised classification problems. Second, we estimate the coherence of class-trajectories in empirically reconstructed space of system states. We show how this analysis can discern variations attributable to non-autonomous deterministic processes from stochastic fluctuations. The analyses are benchmarked using simulated and two different real datasets which have been shown to exhibit attractor dynamics. As an illustrative example, we focused on the analysis of the rat's frontal cortex ensemble dynamics during a decision-making task. Results suggest that, in line with recent hypotheses, rather than internal noise, it is the deterministic trend which most likely underlies

Fuel-element temperature nonstationary distribution caused by local pulsations of the factor of heat transfer to a coolant

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pupko, V.Ya.

1978-01-01

The equation of nonstationary heat transfer caused by the appearance of a local pulse jump in the factor of heat transfer to a coolant is solved analytically for a cylindrical fuel element. The problem solution is generalized to a case of the periodically pulsating factor of heat transfer according to its value in an arbitrary point of the fuel element surface

A non-stationary cost-benefit analysis approach for extreme flood estimation to explore the nexus of 'Risk, Cost and Non-stationarity'

Science.gov (United States)

Qi, Wei

2017-11-01

Cost-benefit analysis is commonly used for engineering planning and design problems in practice. However, previous cost-benefit based design flood estimation is based on stationary assumption. This study develops a non-stationary cost-benefit based design flood estimation approach. This approach integrates a non-stationary probability distribution function into cost-benefit analysis, and influence of non-stationarity on expected total cost (including flood damage and construction costs) and design flood estimation can be quantified. To facilitate design flood selections, a 'Risk-Cost' analysis approach is developed, which reveals the nexus of extreme flood risk, expected total cost and design life periods. Two basins, with 54-year and 104-year flood data respectively, are utilized to illustrate the application. It is found that the developed approach can effectively reveal changes of expected total cost and extreme floods in different design life periods. In addition, trade-offs are found between extreme flood risk and expected total cost, which reflect increases in cost to mitigate risk. Comparing with stationary approaches which generate only one expected total cost curve and therefore only one design flood estimation, the proposed new approach generate design flood estimation intervals and the 'Risk-Cost' approach selects a design flood value from the intervals based on the trade-offs between extreme flood risk and expected total cost. This study provides a new approach towards a better understanding of the influence of non-stationarity on expected total cost and design floods, and could be beneficial to cost-benefit based non-stationary design flood estimation across the world.

Virtual cathode regime in nonstationary electric high-current discharge in hydrogen

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Baksht, F.G.; Borodin, V.S.; Zhuravlev, V.N.

1988-01-01

Virtual cathode (VC) regime in a non-stationary high-current hydrogen arch is constructed. Basic calculational characteristics of the near-the-cathode layer are presented. The calculation was conducted for a 1 cm long cathode under 2x10 4 A/cm 2 current density in pulse and 10 atm. pressure. A rectangular current pulse was considered. It is shown that VC formation is caused by electron temperature reduction in the near-the-cathode area. This results in the reduction of ion flux from plasma to the cathode surface and finally in the change of a sign of space charge and field intensity near the surface. Under the transition to VC regime only the cathode temperature and its effective work function are practically changed, while the rest of parameters remain approximately constant

Markov-switching model for nonstationary runoff conditioned on El Nino information

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Gelati, Emiliano; Madsen, H.; Rosbjerg, Dan

2010-01-01

We define a Markov-modulated autoregressive model with exogenous input (MARX) to generate runoff scenarios using climatic information. Runoff parameterization is assumed to be conditioned on a hidden climate state following a Markov chain, where state transition probabilities are functions...... of the climatic input. MARX allows stochastic modeling of nonstationary runoff, as runoff anomalies are described by a mixture of autoregressive models with exogenous input, each one corresponding to a climate state. We apply MARX to inflow time series of the Daule Peripa reservoir (Ecuador). El Nino Southern...... Oscillation (ENSO) information is used to condition runoff parameterization. Among the investigated ENSO indexes, the NINO 1+2 sea surface temperature anomalies and the trans-Nino index perform best as predictors. In the perspective of reservoir optimization at various time scales, MARX produces realistic...

Evaluation of a weather generator-based method for statistically downscaling non-stationary climate scenarios for impact assessment at a point scale

Science.gov (United States)

The non-stationarity is a major concern for statistically downscaling climate change scenarios for impact assessment. This study is to evaluate whether a statistical downscaling method is fully applicable to generate daily precipitation under non-stationary conditions in a wide range of climatic zo...

Mathematical modeling of non-stationary gas flow in gas pipeline

Science.gov (United States)

Fetisov, V. G.; Nikolaev, A. K.; Lykov, Y. V.; Duchnevich, L. N.

2018-03-01

An analysis of the operation of the gas transportation system shows that for a considerable part of time pipelines operate in an unsettled regime of gas movement. Its pressure and flow rate vary along the length of pipeline and over time as a result of uneven consumption and selection, switching on and off compressor units, shutting off stop valves, emergence of emergency leaks. The operational management of such regimes is associated with difficulty of reconciling the operating modes of individual sections of gas pipeline with each other, as well as with compressor stations. Determining the grounds that cause change in the operating mode of the pipeline system and revealing patterns of these changes determine the choice of its parameters. Therefore, knowledge of the laws of changing the main technological parameters of gas pumping through pipelines in conditions of non-stationary motion is of great importance for practice.

Noise Reduction for Nonlinear Nonstationary Time Series Data using Averaging Intrinsic Mode Function

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Christofer Toumazou

2013-07-01

Full Text Available A novel noise filtering algorithm based on averaging Intrinsic Mode Function (aIMF, which is a derivation of Empirical Mode Decomposition (EMD, is proposed to remove white-Gaussian noise of foreign currency exchange rates that are nonlinear nonstationary times series signals. Noise patterns with different amplitudes and frequencies were randomly mixed into the five exchange rates. A number of filters, namely; Extended Kalman Filter (EKF, Wavelet Transform (WT, Particle Filter (PF and the averaging Intrinsic Mode Function (aIMF algorithm were used to compare filtering and smoothing performance. The aIMF algorithm demonstrated high noise reduction among the performance of these filters.

Time-frequency representation of a highly nonstationary signal via the modified Wigner distribution

Science.gov (United States)

Zoladz, T. F.; Jones, J. H.; Jong, J.

1992-01-01

A new signal analysis technique called the modified Wigner distribution (MWD) is presented. The new signal processing tool has been very successful in determining time frequency representations of highly non-stationary multicomponent signals in both simulations and trials involving actual Space Shuttle Main Engine (SSME) high frequency data. The MWD departs from the classic Wigner distribution (WD) in that it effectively eliminates the cross coupling among positive frequency components in a multiple component signal. This attribute of the MWD, which prevents the generation of 'phantom' spectral peaks, will undoubtedly increase the utility of the WD for real world signal analysis applications which more often than not involve multicomponent signals.

Predicting nonstationary flood frequencies: Evidence supports an updated stationarity thesis in the United States

Science.gov (United States)

Luke, Adam; Vrugt, Jasper A.; AghaKouchak, Amir; Matthew, Richard; Sanders, Brett F.

2017-07-01

Nonstationary extreme value analysis (NEVA) can improve the statistical representation of observed flood peak distributions compared to stationary (ST) analysis, but management of flood risk relies on predictions of out-of-sample distributions for which NEVA has not been comprehensively evaluated. In this study, we apply split-sample testing to 1250 annual maximum discharge records in the United States and compare the predictive capabilities of NEVA relative to ST extreme value analysis using a log-Pearson Type III (LPIII) distribution. The parameters of the LPIII distribution in the ST and nonstationary (NS) models are estimated from the first half of each record using Bayesian inference. The second half of each record is reserved to evaluate the predictions under the ST and NS models. The NS model is applied for prediction by (1) extrapolating the trend of the NS model parameters throughout the evaluation period and (2) using the NS model parameter values at the end of the fitting period to predict with an updated ST model (uST). Our analysis shows that the ST predictions are preferred, overall. NS model parameter extrapolation is rarely preferred. However, if fitting period discharges are influenced by physical changes in the watershed, for example from anthropogenic activity, the uST model is strongly preferred relative to ST and NS predictions. The uST model is therefore recommended for evaluation of current flood risk in watersheds that have undergone physical changes. Supporting information includes a MATLAB® program that estimates the (ST/NS/uST) LPIII parameters from annual peak discharge data through Bayesian inference.

Influence of stationary and non-stationary conditions on drying time and mechanical properties of a porcelain slab

Science.gov (United States)

Hammouda, Imen; Mihoubi, Daoued

2017-12-01

This work deals with a numerical study of the response of a porcelain slab when subjected to convective drying in stationary and non-stationary conditions. The used model describes heat, mass, and momentum transfers is applied to an unsaturated viscoelastic medium described by a Maxwell model. The numerical code allows us to determine the effect of the surrounding air temperature on drying kinetics and on mechanical stress intensities. Von Mises stresses are analysed in order to foresee an eventual damage that may occur during drying. Simulation results for several temperatures in the range of [30 °C, 90 °C] shows that for the temperature from 30 °C to 60 °C, Von Mises stresses are always lower than the yield strength. But above 70 °C, Von Mises stresses are higher than the ultimate strength, and consequently there is a risk of crack at the end of the constant drying rate period. The idea proposed in this work is to integrate a reducing temperature phase when the predicted Von Mises stress intensity exceeds the admissible stress. Simulation results shows that a non-stationary convective drying (90-60 °C) allows us to optimize costs and quality by reducing the drying time and maintaining Von Mises stress values under the admissible stress.

Hawking radiation temperatures in non-stationary Kerr black holes with different tortoise coordinate transformations

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lan, X.G. [Southwest Jiaotong University, Quantum Optoelectronics Laboratory, Chengdu (China); China West Normal University, Institute of Theoretical Physics, Nanchong (China); Jiang, Q.Q. [China West Normal University, Institute of Theoretical Physics, Nanchong (China); Wei, L.F. [Southwest Jiaotong University, Quantum Optoelectronics Laboratory, Chengdu (China); Sun Yat-Sen University, State Key Laboratory of Optoelectronic Materials and Technologies, School of Physics and Engineering, Guangzhou (China)

2012-04-15

We apply the Damour-Ruffini-Sannan method to study the Hawking radiations of scalar and Dirac particles in non-stationary Kerr black holes under different tortoise coordinate transformations. We found that all the relevant Hawking radiation spectra show still the blackbody ones, while the Hawking temperatures are strongly related to the used tortoise coordinate transformations. The properties of these dependences are discussed analytically and numerically. Our results imply that proper selections of tortoise coordinate transformations should be important in the studies of Hawking radiations and the correct selection would be given by the experimental observations in the future. (orig.)

Solving a Local Boundary Value Problem for a Nonlinear Nonstationary System in the Class of Feedback Controls

Science.gov (United States)

Kvitko, A. N.

2018-01-01

An algorithm convenient for numerical implementation is proposed for constructing differentiable control functions that transfer a wide class of nonlinear nonstationary systems of ordinary differential equations from an initial state to a given point of the phase space. Constructive sufficient conditions imposed on the right-hand side of the controlled system are obtained under which this transfer is possible. The control of a robotic manipulator is considered, and its numerical simulation is performed.

On the non-stationary generalized Langevin equation

Science.gov (United States)

Meyer, Hugues; Voigtmann, Thomas; Schilling, Tanja

2017-12-01

In molecular dynamics simulations and single molecule experiments, observables are usually measured along dynamic trajectories and then averaged over an ensemble ("bundle") of trajectories. Under stationary conditions, the time-evolution of such averages is described by the generalized Langevin equation. By contrast, if the dynamics is not stationary, it is not a priori clear which form the equation of motion for an averaged observable has. We employ the formalism of time-dependent projection operator techniques to derive the equation of motion for a non-equilibrium trajectory-averaged observable as well as for its non-stationary auto-correlation function. The equation is similar in structure to the generalized Langevin equation but exhibits a time-dependent memory kernel as well as a fluctuating force that implicitly depends on the initial conditions of the process. We also derive a relation between this memory kernel and the autocorrelation function of the fluctuating force that has a structure similar to a fluctuation-dissipation relation. In addition, we show how the choice of the projection operator allows us to relate the Taylor expansion of the memory kernel to data that are accessible in MD simulations and experiments, thus allowing us to construct the equation of motion. As a numerical example, the procedure is applied to Brownian motion initialized in non-equilibrium conditions and is shown to be consistent with direct measurements from simulations.

Non-stationary analysis of the frequency and intensity of heavy precipitation over Canada and their relations to large-scale climate patterns

Science.gov (United States)

Tan, Xuezhi; Gan, Thian Yew

2017-05-01

In recent years, because the frequency and severity of floods have increased across Canada, it is important to understand the characteristics of Canadian heavy precipitation. Long-term precipitation data of 463 gauging stations of Canada were analyzed using non-stationary generalized extreme value distribution (GEV), Poisson distribution and generalized Pareto (GP) distribution. Time-varying covariates that represent large-scale climate patterns such as El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) and North Pacific Oscillation (NP) were incorporated to parameters of GEV, Poisson and GP distributions. Results show that GEV distributions tend to under-estimate annual maximum daily precipitation (AMP) of western and eastern coastal regions of Canada, compared to GP distributions. Poisson regressions show that temporal clusters of heavy precipitation events in Canada are related to large-scale climate patterns. By modeling AMP time series with non-stationary GEV and heavy precipitation with non-stationary GP distributions, it is evident that AMP and heavy precipitation of Canada show strong non-stationarities (abrupt and slowly varying changes) likely because of the influence of large-scale climate patterns. AMP in southwestern coastal regions, southern Canadian Prairies and the Great Lakes tend to be higher in El Niño than in La Niña years, while AMP of other regions of Canada tends to be lower in El Niño than in La Niña years. The influence of ENSO on heavy precipitation was spatially consistent but stronger than on AMP. The effect of PDO, NAO and NP on extreme precipitation is also statistically significant at some stations across Canada.

Enhancement and Noise Statistics Estimation for Non-Stationary Voiced Speech

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Nørholm, Sidsel Marie; Jensen, Jesper Rindom; Christensen, Mads Græsbøll

2016-01-01

In this paper, single channel speech enhancement in the time domain is considered. We address the problem of modelling non-stationary speech by describing the voiced speech parts by a harmonic linear chirp model instead of using the traditional harmonic model. This means that the speech signal...... through simulations on synthetic and speech signals, that the chirp versions of the filters perform better than their harmonic counterparts in terms of output signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) and signal reduction factor. For synthetic signals, the output SNR for the harmonic chirp APES based filter...... is increased 3 dB compared to the harmonic APES based filter at an input SNR of 10 dB, and at the same time the signal reduction factor is decreased. For speech signals, the increase is 1.5 dB along with a decrease in the signal reduction factor of 0.7. As an implicit part of the APES filter, a noise...

Flood frequency analysis for nonstationary annual peak records in an urban drainage basin

Science.gov (United States)

Villarini, Gabriele; Smith, James A.; Serinaldi, Francesco; Bales, Jerad; Bates, Paul D.; Krajewski, Witold F.

2009-08-01

Flood frequency analysis in urban watersheds is complicated by nonstationarities of annual peak records associated with land use change and evolving urban stormwater infrastructure. In this study, a framework for flood frequency analysis is developed based on the Generalized Additive Models for Location, Scale and Shape parameters (GAMLSS), a tool for modeling time series under nonstationary conditions. GAMLSS is applied to annual maximum peak discharge records for Little Sugar Creek, a highly urbanized watershed which drains the urban core of Charlotte, North Carolina. It is shown that GAMLSS is able to describe the variability in the mean and variance of the annual maximum peak discharge by modeling the parameters of the selected parametric distribution as a smooth function of time via cubic splines. Flood frequency analyses for Little Sugar Creek (at a drainage area of 110km) show that the maximum flow with a 0.01-annual probability (corresponding to 100-year flood peak under stationary conditions) over the 83-year record has ranged from a minimum unit discharge of 2.1mskm to a maximum of 5.1mskm. An alternative characterization can be made by examining the estimated return interval of the peak discharge that would have an annual exceedance probability of 0.01 under the assumption of stationarity (3.2mskm). Under nonstationary conditions, alternative definitions of return period should be adapted. Under the GAMLSS model, the return interval of an annual peak discharge of 3.2mskm ranges from a maximum value of more than 5000 years in 1957 to a minimum value of almost 8 years for the present time (2007). The GAMLSS framework is also used to examine the links between population trends and flood frequency, as well as trends in annual maximum rainfall. These analyses are used to examine evolving flood frequency over future decades.

Multifractal characterizations of nonstationary and intermittency in geophysical fields: Observed, retrieved, or simulated

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Davis, A.; Wiscombe, W.; Cahalan, R.; Marshak, A.

1994-01-01

Geophysical data rarely show any smoothness at any scale, and this often makes comparison with theoretical model output difficult. However, highly fluctuating signals and fractual structures are typical of open dissipative systems with nonlinear dynamics, the focus of most geophysical research. High levels of variability are excited over a large range of scales by the combined actions of external forcing and internal instability. At very small scales we expect geophysical fields to be smooth, but these are rarely resolved with available instrumentation or simulation tools; nondifferentiable and even discontinuous models are therefore in order. We need methods of statistically analyzing geophysical data, whether measured in situ, remotely sensed or even generated by a computer model, that are adapted to these characteristics. An important preliminary task is to define statistically stationary features in generally nonstationary signals. We first discuss a simple criterion for stationarity in finite data streams that exhibit power law energy spectra and then, guided by developments in turbulence studies, we advocate the use of two ways of analyzing the scale dependence of statistical information: singular measures and qth order structure functions. In nonstationary situations, the approach based on singular measures seeks power law behavior in integrals over all possible scales of a nonnegative stationary field derived from the data, leading to a characterization of the intermittency in this field. In contrast, the approach based on structure functions uses the signal itself, seeking power laws for the statistical moments of absolute increments over arbitrarily large scales, leading to a characterization of the prevailing nonstationarity in both quantitative and qualitative terms. We explain graphically, step by step, both multifractal statistics which are largely complementary to each other. 45 refs., 13 figs., 2 tabs

Calculation of nonstationary two-dimensional temperature field in a tube wall in burnout

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kashcheev, V.M.; Pykhtina, T.V.; Yur'ev, Yu.S.

1977-01-01

Numerically solved is a nonstationary two-dimensional equation of heat conduction for a tube wall of fuel element simulator with arbitrary energy release. The tube is heat-insulated from the outside. The vapour-liquid mixture flows inside the tube. The burnout is realized, when the heat transfer coefficient corresponds to the developed boiling in one part of the tube, and to the deteriorated regime in the other part of it. The thermal losses are regarded on both ends of the tube. Given are the statement of the problem, the algorithm of the solution, the results of the test adjusting problem. Obtained is the satisfactory agreement of calculated fixed temperature with experimental one

Information transfer with rate-modulated Poisson processes: a simple model for nonstationary stochastic resonance.

Science.gov (United States)

Goychuk, I

2001-08-01

Stochastic resonance in a simple model of information transfer is studied for sensory neurons and ensembles of ion channels. An exact expression for the information gain is obtained for the Poisson process with the signal-modulated spiking rate. This result allows one to generalize the conventional stochastic resonance (SR) problem (with periodic input signal) to the arbitrary signals of finite duration (nonstationary SR). Moreover, in the case of a periodic signal, the rate of information gain is compared with the conventional signal-to-noise ratio. The paper establishes the general nonequivalence between both measures notwithstanding their apparent similarity in the limit of weak signals.

A Flexible Nonlinear Modelling Framework for Nonstationary Generalized Extreme Value Analysis in Hydrology and Climatology

Science.gov (United States)

Cannon, A. J.

2009-12-01

Parameters in a Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution are specified as a function of covariates using a conditional density network (CDN), which is a probabilistic extension of the multilayer perceptron neural network. If the covariate is time, or is dependent on time, then the GEV-CDN model can be used to perform nonlinear, nonstationary GEV analysis of hydrological or climatological time series. Due to the flexibility of the neural network architecture, the model is capable of representing a wide range of nonstationary relationships. Model parameters are estimated by generalized maximum likelihood, an approach that is tailored to the estimation of GEV parameters from geophysical time series. Model complexity is identified using the Bayesian information criterion and the Akaike information criterion with small sample size correction. Monte Carlo simulations are used to validate GEV-CDN performance on four simple synthetic problems. The model is then demonstrated on precipitation data from southern California, a series that exhibits nonstationarity due to interannual/interdecadal climatic variability. A hierarchy of models can be defined by adjusting three aspects of the GEV-CDN model architecture: (i) by specifying either a linear or a nonlinear hidden-layer activation function; (ii) by adjusting the number of hidden-layer nodes; or (iii) by disconnecting weights leading to output-layer nodes. To illustrate, five GEV-CDN models are shown here in order of increasing complexity for the case of a single covariate, which, in this case, is assumed to be time. The shape parameter is assumed to be constant in all models, although this is not a requirement of the GEV-CDN framework.

Modelling non-stationary annual maximum flood heights in the lower Limpopo River basin of Mozambique

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Daniel Maposa

2016-05-01

Full Text Available In this article we fit a time-dependent generalised extreme value (GEV distribution to annual maximum flood heights at three sites: Chokwe, Sicacate and Combomune in the lower Limpopo River basin of Mozambique. A GEV distribution is fitted to six annual maximum time series models at each site, namely: annual daily maximum (AM1, annual 2-day maximum (AM2, annual 5-day maximum (AM5, annual 7-day maximum (AM7, annual 10-day maximum (AM10 and annual 30-day maximum (AM30. Non-stationary time-dependent GEV models with a linear trend in location and scale parameters are considered in this study. The results show lack of sufficient evidence to indicate a linear trend in the location parameter at all three sites. On the other hand, the findings in this study reveal strong evidence of the existence of a linear trend in the scale parameter at Combomune and Sicacate, whilst the scale parameter had no significant linear trend at Chokwe. Further investigation in this study also reveals that the location parameter at Sicacate can be modelled by a nonlinear quadratic trend; however, the complexity of the overall model is not worthwhile in fit over a time-homogeneous model. This study shows the importance of extending the time-homogeneous GEV model to incorporate climate change factors such as trend in the lower Limpopo River basin, particularly in this era of global warming and a changing climate. Keywords: nonstationary extremes; annual maxima; lower Limpopo River; generalised extreme value

Conditional Correlation Models of Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity with Nonstationary GARCH Equations

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Amado, Cristina; Teräsvirta, Timo

-run and the short-run dynamic behaviour of the volatilities. The structure of the conditional correlation matrix is assumed to be either time independent or to vary over time. We apply our model to pairs of seven daily stock returns belonging to the S&P 500 composite index and traded at the New York Stock Exchange......In this paper we investigate the effects of careful modelling the long-run dynamics of the volatilities of stock market returns on the conditional correlation structure. To this end we allow the individual unconditional variances in Conditional Correlation GARCH models to change smoothly over time...... by incorporating a nonstationary component in the variance equations. The modelling technique to determine the parametric structure of this time-varying component is based on a sequence of specification Lagrange multiplier-type tests derived in Amado and Teräsvirta (2011). The variance equations combine the long...

Non-Stationary Single-Channel Queuing System Features Research in Context of Number of Served Queries

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Porshnev Sergey

2017-01-01

Full Text Available This work devoted to researching of mathematical model of non-stationary queuing system (NQS. Arrival rate in studied NQS λ(t is similar to rate which observed in practice in a real access control system of objects of mass events. Dependence of number of serviced requests from time was calculated. It is proven that the ratio value of served requests at the beginning of event to all served requests described by a deterministic function, depending on the average service rate μ¯$\\bar \\mu $ and the maximum value of the arrival rate function λ(t.

A non-stationary relationship between global climate phenomena and human plague incidence in Madagascar.

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Kreppel, Katharina S; Caminade, Cyril; Telfer, Sandra; Rajerison, Minoarison; Rahalison, Lila; Morse, Andy; Baylis, Matthew

2014-10-01

Plague, a zoonosis caused by Yersinia pestis, is found in Asia and the Americas, but predominantly in Africa, with the island of Madagascar reporting almost one third of human cases worldwide. Plague's occurrence is affected by local climate factors which in turn are influenced by large-scale climate phenomena such as the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The effects of ENSO on regional climate are often enhanced or reduced by a second large-scale climate phenomenon, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). It is known that ENSO and the IOD interact as drivers of disease. Yet the impacts of these phenomena in driving plague dynamics via their effect on regional climate, and specifically contributing to the foci of transmission on Madagascar, are unknown. Here we present the first analysis of the effects of ENSO and IOD on plague in Madagascar. We use a forty-eight year monthly time-series of reported human plague cases from 1960 to 2008. Using wavelet analysis, we show that over the last fifty years there have been complex non-stationary associations between ENSO/IOD and the dynamics of plague in Madagascar. We demonstrate that ENSO and IOD influence temperature in Madagascar and that temperature and plague cycles are associated. The effects on plague appear to be mediated more by temperature, but precipitation also undoubtedly influences plague in Madagascar. Our results confirm a relationship between plague anomalies and an increase in the intensity of ENSO events and precipitation. This work widens the understanding of how climate factors acting over different temporal scales can combine to drive local disease dynamics. Given the association of increasing ENSO strength and plague anomalies in Madagascar it may in future be possible to forecast plague outbreaks in Madagascar. The study gives insight into the complex and changing relationship between climate factors and plague in Madagascar.

A non-stationary relationship between global climate phenomena and human plague incidence in Madagascar.

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Katharina S Kreppel

2014-10-01

Full Text Available Plague, a zoonosis caused by Yersinia pestis, is found in Asia and the Americas, but predominantly in Africa, with the island of Madagascar reporting almost one third of human cases worldwide. Plague's occurrence is affected by local climate factors which in turn are influenced by large-scale climate phenomena such as the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO. The effects of ENSO on regional climate are often enhanced or reduced by a second large-scale climate phenomenon, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD. It is known that ENSO and the IOD interact as drivers of disease. Yet the impacts of these phenomena in driving plague dynamics via their effect on regional climate, and specifically contributing to the foci of transmission on Madagascar, are unknown. Here we present the first analysis of the effects of ENSO and IOD on plague in Madagascar.We use a forty-eight year monthly time-series of reported human plague cases from 1960 to 2008. Using wavelet analysis, we show that over the last fifty years there have been complex non-stationary associations between ENSO/IOD and the dynamics of plague in Madagascar. We demonstrate that ENSO and IOD influence temperature in Madagascar and that temperature and plague cycles are associated. The effects on plague appear to be mediated more by temperature, but precipitation also undoubtedly influences plague in Madagascar. Our results confirm a relationship between plague anomalies and an increase in the intensity of ENSO events and precipitation.This work widens the understanding of how climate factors acting over different temporal scales can combine to drive local disease dynamics. Given the association of increasing ENSO strength and plague anomalies in Madagascar it may in future be possible to forecast plague outbreaks in Madagascar. The study gives insight into the complex and changing relationship between climate factors and plague in Madagascar.

Forecasting non-stationary diarrhea, acute respiratory infection, and malaria time-series in Niono, Mali.

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Medina, Daniel C; Findley, Sally E; Guindo, Boubacar; Doumbia, Seydou

2007-11-21

Much of the developing world, particularly sub-Saharan Africa, exhibits high levels of morbidity and mortality associated with diarrhea, acute respiratory infection, and malaria. With the increasing awareness that the aforementioned infectious diseases impose an enormous burden on developing countries, public health programs therein could benefit from parsimonious general-purpose forecasting methods to enhance infectious disease intervention. Unfortunately, these disease time-series often i) suffer from non-stationarity; ii) exhibit large inter-annual plus seasonal fluctuations; and, iii) require disease-specific tailoring of forecasting methods. In this longitudinal retrospective (01/1996-06/2004) investigation, diarrhea, acute respiratory infection of the lower tract, and malaria consultation time-series are fitted with a general-purpose econometric method, namely the multiplicative Holt-Winters, to produce contemporaneous on-line forecasts for the district of Niono, Mali. This method accommodates seasonal, as well as inter-annual, fluctuations and produces reasonably accurate median 2- and 3-month horizon forecasts for these non-stationary time-series, i.e., 92% of the 24 time-series forecasts generated (2 forecast horizons, 3 diseases, and 4 age categories = 24 time-series forecasts) have mean absolute percentage errors circa 25%. The multiplicative Holt-Winters forecasting method: i) performs well across diseases with dramatically distinct transmission modes and hence it is a strong general-purpose forecasting method candidate for non-stationary epidemiological time-series; ii) obliquely captures prior non-linear interactions between climate and the aforementioned disease dynamics thus, obviating the need for more complex disease-specific climate-based parametric forecasting methods in the district of Niono; furthermore, iii) readily decomposes time-series into seasonal components thereby potentially assisting with programming of public health interventions

Stochastic Geometric Models with Non-stationary Spatial Correlations in Lagrangian Fluid Flows

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Gay-Balmaz, François; Holm, Darryl D.

2018-01-01

Inspired by spatiotemporal observations from satellites of the trajectories of objects drifting near the surface of the ocean in the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's "Global Drifter Program", this paper develops data-driven stochastic models of geophysical fluid dynamics (GFD) with non-stationary spatial correlations representing the dynamical behaviour of oceanic currents. Three models are considered. Model 1 from Holm (Proc R Soc A 471:20140963, 2015) is reviewed, in which the spatial correlations are time independent. Two new models, called Model 2 and Model 3, introduce two different symmetry breaking mechanisms by which the spatial correlations may be advected by the flow. These models are derived using reduction by symmetry of stochastic variational principles, leading to stochastic Hamiltonian systems, whose momentum maps, conservation laws and Lie-Poisson bracket structures are used in developing the new stochastic Hamiltonian models of GFD.

Stochastic Geometric Models with Non-stationary Spatial Correlations in Lagrangian Fluid Flows

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Gay-Balmaz, François; Holm, Darryl D.

2018-06-01

Inspired by spatiotemporal observations from satellites of the trajectories of objects drifting near the surface of the ocean in the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's "Global Drifter Program", this paper develops data-driven stochastic models of geophysical fluid dynamics (GFD) with non-stationary spatial correlations representing the dynamical behaviour of oceanic currents. Three models are considered. Model 1 from Holm (Proc R Soc A 471:20140963, 2015) is reviewed, in which the spatial correlations are time independent. Two new models, called Model 2 and Model 3, introduce two different symmetry breaking mechanisms by which the spatial correlations may be advected by the flow. These models are derived using reduction by symmetry of stochastic variational principles, leading to stochastic Hamiltonian systems, whose momentum maps, conservation laws and Lie-Poisson bracket structures are used in developing the new stochastic Hamiltonian models of GFD.

Nonstationary modeling of a long record of rainfall and temperature over Rome

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Villarini, Gabriele; Smith, James A.; Napolitano, Francesco

2010-10-01

A long record (1862-2004) of seasonal rainfall and temperature from the Rome observatory of Collegio Romano are modeled in a nonstationary framework by means of the Generalized Additive Models in Location, Scale and Shape (GAMLSS). Modeling analyses are used to characterize nonstationarities in rainfall and related climate variables. It is shown that the GAMLSS models are able to represent the magnitude and spread in the seasonal time series with parameters which are a smooth function of time. Covariate analyses highlight the role of seasonal and interannual variability of large-scale climate forcing, as reflected in three teleconnection indexes (Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, North Atlantic Oscillation, and Mediterranean Index), for modeling seasonal rainfall and temperature over Rome. In particular, the North Atlantic Oscillation is a significant predictor during the winter, while the Mediterranean Index is a significant predictor for almost all seasons.

Blind Separation of Nonstationary Sources Based on Spatial Time-Frequency Distributions

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Zhang Yimin

2006-01-01

Full Text Available Blind source separation (BSS based on spatial time-frequency distributions (STFDs provides improved performance over blind source separation methods based on second-order statistics, when dealing with signals that are localized in the time-frequency (t-f domain. In this paper, we propose the use of STFD matrices for both whitening and recovery of the mixing matrix, which are two stages commonly required in many BSS methods, to provide robust BSS performance to noise. In addition, a simple method is proposed to select the auto- and cross-term regions of time-frequency distribution (TFD. To further improve the BSS performance, t-f grouping techniques are introduced to reduce the number of signals under consideration, and to allow the receiver array to separate more sources than the number of array sensors, provided that the sources have disjoint t-f signatures. With the use of one or more techniques proposed in this paper, improved performance of blind separation of nonstationary signals can be achieved.

Improved Multiscale Entropy Technique with Nearest-Neighbor Moving-Average Kernel for Nonlinear and Nonstationary Short-Time Biomedical Signal Analysis

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S. P. Arunachalam

2018-01-01

Full Text Available Analysis of biomedical signals can yield invaluable information for prognosis, diagnosis, therapy evaluation, risk assessment, and disease prevention which is often recorded as short time series data that challenges existing complexity classification algorithms such as Shannon entropy (SE and other techniques. The purpose of this study was to improve previously developed multiscale entropy (MSE technique by incorporating nearest-neighbor moving-average kernel, which can be used for analysis of nonlinear and non-stationary short time series physiological data. The approach was tested for robustness with respect to noise analysis using simulated sinusoidal and ECG waveforms. Feasibility of MSE to discriminate between normal sinus rhythm (NSR and atrial fibrillation (AF was tested on a single-lead ECG. In addition, the MSE algorithm was applied to identify pivot points of rotors that were induced in ex vivo isolated rabbit hearts. The improved MSE technique robustly estimated the complexity of the signal compared to that of SE with various noises, discriminated NSR and AF on single-lead ECG, and precisely identified the pivot points of ex vivo rotors by providing better contrast between the rotor core and the peripheral region. The improved MSE technique can provide efficient complexity analysis of variety of nonlinear and nonstationary short-time biomedical signals.

Evaluation of stationary and non-stationary geostatistical models for inferring hydraulic conductivity values at Aespoe

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

La Pointe, P.R.

1994-11-01

This report describes the comparison of stationary and non-stationary geostatistical models for the purpose of inferring block-scale hydraulic conductivity values from packer tests at Aespoe. The comparison between models is made through the evaluation of cross-validation statistics for three experimental designs. The first experiment consisted of a 'Delete-1' test previously used at Finnsjoen. The second test consisted of 'Delete-10%' and the third test was a 'Delete-50%' test. Preliminary data analysis showed that the 3 m and 30 m packer test data can be treated as a sample from a single population for the purposes of geostatistical analyses. Analysis of the 3 m data does not indicate that there are any systematic statistical changes with depth, rock type, fracture zone vs non-fracture zone or other mappable factor. Directional variograms are ambiguous to interpret due to the clustered nature of the data, but do not show any obvious anisotropy that should be accounted for in geostatistical analysis. Stationary analysis suggested that there exists a sizeable spatially uncorrelated component ('Nugget Effect') in the 3 m data, on the order of 60% of the observed variance for the various models fitted. Four different nested models were automatically fit to the data. Results for all models in terms of cross-validation statistics were very similar for the first set of validation tests. Non-stationary analysis established that both the order of drift and the order of the intrinsic random functions is low. This study also suggests that conventional cross-validation studies and automatic variogram fitting are not necessarily evaluating how well a model will infer block scale hydraulic conductivity values. 20 refs, 20 figs, 14 tabs

Non-stationary analysis of dry spells in monsoon season of Senegal River Basin using data from Regional Climate Models (RCMs)

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Giraldo Osorio, J. D.; García Galiano, S. G.

2012-07-01

SummaryThe Senegal River Basin, located in West Africa, has been affected by several droughts since the end of the 1960s. In its valley, which is densely populated and highly vulnerable to climate variability and water availability, agricultural activities provide the livelihood for thousands of people. Increasing the knowledge about plausible trends of drought events will allow to improve the adaptation and mitigation measures in order to build "adaptive capacity" to climate change in West Africa. An innovative methodology for the non-stationary analysis of droughts events, which allows the prediction of regional trends associated to several return periods, is presented. The analyses were based on Regional Climate Models (RCMs) provided by the European ENSEMBLES project for West Africa, together with observed data. A non-stationary behaviour of the annual series of maximum length of dry spells (AMDSL) in the monsoon season is reflected in temporal changes in mean and variance. The non-stationary nature of hydrometeorological series, due to climate change and anthropogenic activities, is the main criticism to traditional frequency analysis. Therefore, in this paper, the modelling tool GAMLSS (Generalized Additive Models for Location, Scale and Shape), is applied to develop regional probability density functions (pdfs) fitted to AMDSL series for the monsoon season in the Senegal River Basin. The skills of RCMs in the representation of maximum length of dry spells observed for the period 1970-1990, are evaluated considering observed data. Based on the results obtained, a first selection of the RCMs with which to apply GAMLSS to the AMDSL series identified, for the time period 1970-2050, is made. The results of GAMLSS analysis exhibit divergent trends, with different value ranges for parameters of probability distributions being detected. Therefore, in the second stage of the paper, regional pdfs are constructed using bootstrapping distributions based on probabilistic

Time-varying surrogate data to assess nonlinearity in nonstationary time series: application to heart rate variability.

Science.gov (United States)

Faes, Luca; Zhao, He; Chon, Ki H; Nollo, Giandomenico

2009-03-01

We propose a method to extend to time-varying (TV) systems the procedure for generating typical surrogate time series, in order to test the presence of nonlinear dynamics in potentially nonstationary signals. The method is based on fitting a TV autoregressive (AR) model to the original series and then regressing the model coefficients with random replacements of the model residuals to generate TV AR surrogate series. The proposed surrogate series were used in combination with a TV sample entropy (SE) discriminating statistic to assess nonlinearity in both simulated and experimental time series, in comparison with traditional time-invariant (TIV) surrogates combined with the TIV SE discriminating statistic. Analysis of simulated time series showed that using TIV surrogates, linear nonstationary time series may be erroneously regarded as nonlinear and weak TV nonlinearities may remain unrevealed, while the use of TV AR surrogates markedly increases the probability of a correct interpretation. Application to short (500 beats) heart rate variability (HRV) time series recorded at rest (R), after head-up tilt (T), and during paced breathing (PB) showed: 1) modifications of the SE statistic that were well interpretable with the known cardiovascular physiology; 2) significant contribution of nonlinear dynamics to HRV in all conditions, with significant increase during PB at 0.2 Hz respiration rate; and 3) a disagreement between TV AR surrogates and TIV surrogates in about a quarter of the series, suggesting that nonstationarity may affect HRV recordings and bias the outcome of the traditional surrogate-based nonlinearity test.

Dynamics of non-stationary processes that follow the maximum of the Rényi entropy principle.

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Shalymov, Dmitry S; Fradkov, Alexander L

2016-01-01

We propose dynamics equations which describe the behaviour of non-stationary processes that follow the maximum Rényi entropy principle. The equations are derived on the basis of the speed-gradient principle originated in the control theory. The maximum of the Rényi entropy principle is analysed for discrete and continuous cases, and both a discrete random variable and probability density function (PDF) are used. We consider mass conservation and energy conservation constraints and demonstrate the uniqueness of the limit distribution and asymptotic convergence of the PDF for both cases. The coincidence of the limit distribution of the proposed equations with the Rényi distribution is examined.

The periodicity of sleep duration – an infradian rhythm in spontaneous living

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Wong SN

2013-01-01

Full Text Available Shi Ngar Wong, Mark Halaki, Chin Moi ChowDiscipline of Exercise and Sport Science, University of Sydney, Sydney, NSW, AustraliaAbstract: The sleep–wake cycle is a process not only dictated by homeostatic and circadian factors but also by social and environmental influences. Thus, the total sleep time partly reflects sleep need, which is integral to the dynamics of sleep loss recovery. This study explored the nature of the observed oscillations in total sleep time in healthy adults under spontaneous living conditions. Actigraph-measured sleep data for 13 healthy young male adults were collected over 14 consecutive days and analyzed for habitual sleep duration. The total sleep time periodicity was modeled using the cosinor method for each individual across the 14 days. The findings confirm the existence of periodicity in habitual sleep duration as there were clear periodic patterns in the majority of the participants. Although exclusive to each individual, the observed oscillations may be a resultant response of homeostatic sleep need, circadian timing, and/or social and environmental influences. These findings instigate further indepth studies into the periodicity of sleep duration in healthy individuals to provide a better understanding of sleep need in short versus long sleepers, in predicting work performance, and reducing sleepiness-related accidents following shift work, and how this periodicity may impact sleep treatment outcome in clinical populations.Keywords: sleep regulation, homeostasis, habitual sleep, spontaneous living, healthy males

Flood frequency analysis for nonstationary annual peak records in an urban drainage basin

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Villarini, G.; Smith, J.A.; Serinaldi, F.; Bales, J.; Bates, P.D.; Krajewski, W.F.

2009-01-01

Flood frequency analysis in urban watersheds is complicated by nonstationarities of annual peak records associated with land use change and evolving urban stormwater infrastructure. In this study, a framework for flood frequency analysis is developed based on the Generalized Additive Models for Location, Scale and Shape parameters (GAMLSS), a tool for modeling time series under nonstationary conditions. GAMLSS is applied to annual maximum peak discharge records for Little Sugar Creek, a highly urbanized watershed which drains the urban core of Charlotte, North Carolina. It is shown that GAMLSS is able to describe the variability in the mean and variance of the annual maximum peak discharge by modeling the parameters of the selected parametric distribution as a smooth function of time via cubic splines. Flood frequency analyses for Little Sugar Creek (at a drainage area of 110 km2) show that the maximum flow with a 0.01-annual probability (corresponding to 100-year flood peak under stationary conditions) over the 83-year record has ranged from a minimum unit discharge of 2.1 m3 s- 1 km- 2 to a maximum of 5.1 m3 s- 1 km- 2. An alternative characterization can be made by examining the estimated return interval of the peak discharge that would have an annual exceedance probability of 0.01 under the assumption of stationarity (3.2 m3 s- 1 km- 2). Under nonstationary conditions, alternative definitions of return period should be adapted. Under the GAMLSS model, the return interval of an annual peak discharge of 3.2 m3 s- 1 km- 2 ranges from a maximum value of more than 5000 years in 1957 to a minimum value of almost 8 years for the present time (2007). The GAMLSS framework is also used to examine the links between population trends and flood frequency, as well as trends in annual maximum rainfall. These analyses are used to examine evolving flood frequency over future decades. ?? 2009 Elsevier Ltd.

Calculation of control rod oscillations in a hexagonal flow channel by means of the non-stationary pressure distribution around the rods

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Grunwald, G.; Mueller, E.

1983-08-01

For the computation of control rod oscillations in a flow channel we set up the differential equations for the non-stationary pressure distribution around the control elements which are coupled with the motion equations of the rods. The equation system is solved by means of a finite difference method. An example shows the efficiency of the numerical calculation procedure. (author)

Modeling fire spatial non-stationary in Portugal using GWR and GAMLSS

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Sá, Ana C. L.; Amaral Turkman, Maria A.; Bistinas, Ioannis; Pereira, José M. C.

2014-05-01

Portuguese wildfires are responsible for large environmental, ecological and socio-economic impacts and, in the last decade, vegetation fires consumed on average 140.000ha/year. Portugal has a unique fires-atlas of burnt scar perimeters covering the 1975-2009 period, which allows the assessment of the fire most affected areas. It's crucial to understand the influence of the main drivers of forest fires and its spatial distribution in order to set new management strategies to reduce its impacts. Thus, this study aims at evaluating the spatial stationarity of the fire-environment relationship using two statistical approaches: Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR) and Generalized Additive Models for Location, Scale and Shape (GAMLSS). Analysis was performed using a regular 2kmx2km cell size grid, a total of 21293 observations overlaying the mainland of Portugal. Fire incidence was determined as the number of times each grid cell burned in the 35 years period. For the GWR analysis the group of environmental variables selected as predictors are: ignition source (population density (PD)); vegetation (proportion of forest and shrubland (FORSHR)); and weather (total precipitation of the coldest quarter (PCQ). Results showed that the fire-environment relationship is non-stationary, thus the coefficient estimates of all the predictors vary spatially, both in magnitude and sign. The most statistically significant predictor is FORSHR, followed by the PCQ. Despite the relationship between fire incidence and PD is non-stationary, only 9% of the observations are statistically significant at a 95% level of confidence. When compared with the Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) global model, 53% of the R2 statistic is above the 26% global estimated value, meaning a better explanation of the fire incidence variance with the local model approach. Using the same environmental variables, fire incidence was also modeled using GAMLSS to characterize nonstationarities in fire incidence. It is

Unveiling non-stationary coupling between Amazon and ocean during recent extreme events

Science.gov (United States)

Ramos, Antônio M. de T.; Zou, Yong; de Oliveira, Gilvan Sampaio; Kurths, Jürgen; Macau, Elbert E. N.

2018-02-01

The interplay between extreme events in the Amazon's precipitation and the anomaly in the temperature of the surrounding oceans is not fully understood, especially its causal relations. In this paper, we investigate the climatic interaction between these regions from 1999 until 2012 using modern tools of complex system science. We identify the time scale of the coupling quantitatively and unveil the non-stationary influence of the ocean's temperature. The findings show consistently the distinctions between the coupling in the recent major extreme events in Amazonia, such as the two droughts that happened in 2005 and 2010 and the three floods during 1999, 2009 and 2012. Interestingly, the results also reveal the influence over the anomalous precipitation of Southwest Amazon has become increasingly lagged. The analysis can shed light on the underlying dynamics of the climate network system and consequently can improve predictions of extreme rainfall events.

Biorhythm theory does not predict admission for acute myocardial infarction.

Science.gov (United States)

Joncas, Sébastien X; Carrier, Nathalie; Nguyen, Michel; Farand, Paul

2011-02-01

Temporal variations in the incidence of acute myocardial infarction (AMI) have been described. However, AMI occurrence and biorhythm theory, which proposes the existence of three endogenous independent infradian cycles and AMI occurrence, has not been well studied. The purpose of this study is to determine whether specific days in the biorhythm cycles are related to AMI incidence. Patients (40-85 years old) admitted for AMI at the Sherbrooke University Hospital Center, 1993-2008 were subjects of this study. Potential vulnerable days and performance days of the biorhythm cycles were calculated using birth and admission dates from the warehouse database. Observed AMI frequencies were compared to those expected using χ² tests. There were 11,395 admissions for AMI. No relation was noted between single, double, or triple critical or noncritical days and AMI (χ² = 3.78; p > 0.05). Observed and expected AMI frequencies for maximal and minimal performance days were similar (χ² = 15.06; p > 0.05). We found no evidence for a possible relationship between the date of AMI and critical maximum and minimum performance days of an individual's physical, emotional, or intellectual biorhythm cycles. We conclude that biorhythm theory does not predict admission for AMI.

Approximate Forward Difference Equations for the Lower Order Non-Stationary Statistics of Geometrically Non-Linear Systems subject to Random Excitation

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Köylüoglu, H. U.; Nielsen, Søren R. K.; Cakmak, A. S.

Geometrically non-linear multi-degree-of-freedom (MDOF) systems subject to random excitation are considered. New semi-analytical approximate forward difference equations for the lower order non-stationary statistical moments of the response are derived from the stochastic differential equations...... of motion, and, the accuracy of these equations is numerically investigated. For stationary excitations, the proposed method computes the stationary statistical moments of the response from the solution of non-linear algebraic equations....

Validation of non-stationary precipitation series for site-specific impact assessment: comparison of two statistical downscaling techniques

Science.gov (United States)

Mullan, Donal; Chen, Jie; Zhang, Xunchang John

2016-02-01

Statistical downscaling (SD) methods have become a popular, low-cost and accessible means of bridging the gap between the coarse spatial resolution at which climate models output climate scenarios and the finer spatial scale at which impact modellers require these scenarios, with various different SD techniques used for a wide range of applications across the world. This paper compares the Generator for Point Climate Change (GPCC) model and the Statistical DownScaling Model (SDSM)—two contrasting SD methods—in terms of their ability to generate precipitation series under non-stationary conditions across ten contrasting global climates. The mean, maximum and a selection of distribution statistics as well as the cumulative frequencies of dry and wet spells for four different temporal resolutions were compared between the models and the observed series for a validation period. Results indicate that both methods can generate daily precipitation series that generally closely mirror observed series for a wide range of non-stationary climates. However, GPCC tends to overestimate higher precipitation amounts, whilst SDSM tends to underestimate these. This infers that GPCC is more likely to overestimate the effects of precipitation on a given impact sector, whilst SDSM is likely to underestimate the effects. GPCC performs better than SDSM in reproducing wet and dry day frequency, which is a key advantage for many impact sectors. Overall, the mixed performance of the two methods illustrates the importance of users performing a thorough validation in order to determine the influence of simulated precipitation on their chosen impact sector.

Non-stationary temporal characterization of the temperature profile of a soil exposed to frost in south-eastern Canada

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F. Anctil

2008-05-01

Full Text Available The objective of this work was to compare time and frequency fluctuations of air and soil temperatures (2-, 5-, 10-, 20- and 50-cm below the soil surface using the continuous wavelet transform, with a particular emphasis on the daily cycle. The analysis of wavelet power spectra and cross power spectra provided detailed non-stationary accounts with respect to frequencies (or periods and to time of the structure of the data and also of the relationships that exist between time series. For this particular application to the temperature profile of a soil exposed to frost, both the air temperature and the 2-cm depth soil temperature time series exhibited a dominant power peak at 1-d periodicity, prominent from spring to autumn. This feature was gradually damped as it propagated deeper into the soil and was weak for the 20-cm depth. Influence of the incoming solar radiation was also revealed in the wavelet power spectra analysis by a weaker intensity of the 1-d peak. The principal divergence between air and soil temperatures, besides damping, occurred in winter from the latent heat release associated to the freezing of the soil water and the insulation effect of snowpack that cease the dependence of the soil temperature to the air temperature. Attenuation and phase-shifting of the 1-d periodicity could be quantified through scale-averaged power spectra and time-lag estimations. Air temperature variance was only partly transferred to the 2-cm soil temperature time series and much less so to the 20-cm soil depth.

Experimental data processing technique for nonstationary heat transfer on fuel rod simulators

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nikonov, S.P.; Nikonov, A.P.; Belyukin, V.A.

1982-01-01

Non-stationary heat-transfer data processing is considered in connection with experimental studies of the emergency cooling whereat fuel rod imitators both with direct and indirect shell heating were used. The objective of data processing was obtaining the temperature distribution within the imitator, the heat flux removed by the coolant and the shell-coolant heat-transfer coefficient. The special attention was paid to the temperature distribution calculation at the data processing during the reflooding experiments. In this case two factors are assumed to be known: the time dependency of temperature variation at a certain point within the imitator cross-section and the heat flux at some point of the same cross-section. The initial data preparation for calculations, employing the procedure of smoothing by cubic spline functions, is considered as well, with application of an algorithm reported in the literature, which is efficient for the given functional dependency wherein the deviation in each point is known [ru

tgp: An R Package for Bayesian Nonstationary, Semiparametric Nonlinear Regression and Design by Treed Gaussian Process Models

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Robert B. Gramacy

2007-06-01

Full Text Available The tgp package for R is a tool for fully Bayesian nonstationary, semiparametric nonlinear regression and design by treed Gaussian processes with jumps to the limiting linear model. Special cases also implemented include Bayesian linear models, linear CART, stationary separable and isotropic Gaussian processes. In addition to inference and posterior prediction, the package supports the (sequential design of experiments under these models paired with several objective criteria. 1-d and 2-d plotting, with higher dimension projection and slice capabilities, and tree drawing functions (requiring maptree and combinat packages, are also provided for visualization of tgp objects.

Resolvent approach for two-dimensional scattering problems. Application to the nonstationary Schroedinger problem and the KPI equation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Boiti, M.; Pempinelli, F.; Pogrebkov, A.K.; Polivanov, M.C.

1993-01-01

The resolvent operator of the linear problem is determined as the full Green function continued in the complex domain in two variables. An analog of the known Hilbert identity is derived. The authors demonstrate the role of this identity in the study of two-dimensional scattering. Considering the nonstationary Schroedinger equation as an example, it is shown that all types of solutions of the linear problem, as well as spectral data known in the literature, are given as specific values of this unique function - the resolvent function. A new form of the inverse problem is formulated. 7 refs

Model-based analysis of nonstationary thermal mode in premises with an insolation passive heating system with a three-layer translucent shield

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Avezova, N.R.; Avezov, R.R.; Rashidov, Y.K. et al.

2014-01-01

The results of the model-based study of nonstationary thermal mode in premises with an insolation passive heating system with a three-layer translucent shield are presented. The article is aimed at determining daily variations in the air temperature of the heated premise on typical heating season days and analyzing the optimization of the thermal capacity of the short-term (daily) thermal battery of the heating system on this basis. (author)

4th International Conference on Condition Monitoring of Machinery in Non-Stationary Operations

CERN Document Server

Zimroz, Radoslaw; Bartelmus, Walter; Haddar, Mohamed

2016-01-01

The book provides readers with a snapshot of recent research and technological trends in the field of condition monitoring of machinery working under a broad range of operating conditions. Each chapter, accepted after a rigorous peer-review process, reports on an original piece of work presented and discussed at the 4th International Conference on Condition Monitoring of Machinery in Non-stationary Operations, CMMNO 2014, held on December 15-16, 2014, in Lyon, France. The contributions have been grouped into three different sections according to the main subfield (signal processing, data mining, or condition monitoring techniques) they are related to. The book includes both theoretical developments as well as a number of industrial case studies, in different areas including, but not limited to: noise and vibration; vibro-acoustic diagnosis; signal processing techniques; diagnostic data analysis; instantaneous speed identification; monitoring and diagnostic systems; and dynamic and fault modeling. This book no...

Noise Diagnostics of Stationary and Non-Stationary Reactor Processes

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Sunde, Carl

2007-04-15

This thesis concerns the application of noise diagnostics on different problems in the area of reactor physics involving both stationary and non-stationary core processes. Five different problems are treated, divided into three different parts. The first problem treated in the first part is the classification of two-phase flow regimes from neutron radiographic and visible light images with a neuro-wavelet algorithm. The algorithm consists of wavelet pre-processing and of an artificial neural network. The result indicates that the wavelet pre-processing is improving the training of the neural network. Next, detector tubes which are suspected of impacting on nearby fuel-assemblies in a boiling water reactor (BWR) are identified by both a classical spectral method and wavelet-based methods. It was found that there is good agreement between the different methods as well as with visual inspections of detector tube and fuel assembly damage made during the outage at the plant. The third problem addresses the determination of the decay ratio of a BWR from the auto-correlation function (ACF). Here wavelets are used, with some success, both for de-trending and de-nosing of the ACF and also for direct estimation of the decay ratio from the ACF. The second part deals with the analysis of beam-mode and shell-mode core-barrel vibrations in pressurised water reactors (PWRs). The beam-mode vibrations are analysed by using parameters of the vibration peaks, in spectra from ex core detectors. A trend analysis of the peak amplitude shows that the peak amplitude is changing during the fuel cycle. When it comes to the analysis of the shell-mode vibration, 1-D analytical and numerical calculations are performed in order to calculate the neutron noise induced in the core. The two calculations are in agreement and show that a large local noise component is present in the core which could be used to classify the shell-mode vibrations. However, a measurement made in the PWR Ringhals-3 shows

Noise Diagnostics of Stationary and Non-Stationary Reactor Processes

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sunde, Carl

2007-01-01

This thesis concerns the application of noise diagnostics on different problems in the area of reactor physics involving both stationary and non-stationary core processes. Five different problems are treated, divided into three different parts. The first problem treated in the first part is the classification of two-phase flow regimes from neutron radiographic and visible light images with a neuro-wavelet algorithm. The algorithm consists of wavelet pre-processing and of an artificial neural network. The result indicates that the wavelet pre-processing is improving the training of the neural network. Next, detector tubes which are suspected of impacting on nearby fuel-assemblies in a boiling water reactor (BWR) are identified by both a classical spectral method and wavelet-based methods. It was found that there is good agreement between the different methods as well as with visual inspections of detector tube and fuel assembly damage made during the outage at the plant. The third problem addresses the determination of the decay ratio of a BWR from the auto-correlation function (ACF). Here wavelets are used, with some success, both for de-trending and de-nosing of the ACF and also for direct estimation of the decay ratio from the ACF. The second part deals with the analysis of beam-mode and shell-mode core-barrel vibrations in pressurised water reactors (PWRs). The beam-mode vibrations are analysed by using parameters of the vibration peaks, in spectra from ex core detectors. A trend analysis of the peak amplitude shows that the peak amplitude is changing during the fuel cycle. When it comes to the analysis of the shell-mode vibration, 1-D analytical and numerical calculations are performed in order to calculate the neutron noise induced in the core. The two calculations are in agreement and show that a large local noise component is present in the core which could be used to classify the shell-mode vibrations. However, a measurement made in the PWR Ringhals-3 shows

Photoplethysmography pulse rate variability as a surrogate measurement of heart rate variability during non-stationary conditions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gil, E; Orini, M; Bailón, R; Laguna, P; Vergara, J M; Mainardi, L

2010-01-01

In this paper we assessed the possibility of using the pulse rate variability (PRV) extracted from the photoplethysmography signal as an alternative measurement of the HRV signal in non-stationary conditions. The study is based on analysis of the changes observed during a tilt table test in the heart rate modulation of 17 young subjects. First, the classical indices of HRV analysis were compared to the indices from PRV in intervals where stationarity was assumed. Second, the time-varying spectral properties of both signals were compared by time-frequency (TF) and TF coherence analysis. Third, the effect of replacing PRV with HRV in the assessment of the changes of the autonomic modulation of the heart rate was considered. Time-invariant HRV and PRV indices showed no statistically significant differences (p > 0.05) and high correlation (>0.97). Time-frequency analysis revealed that the TF spectra of both signals were highly correlated (0.99 ± 0.01); the difference between the instantaneous power, in the LF and HF bands, obtained from HRV and PRV was small (<10 −3 s −2 ) and their temporal patterns were highly correlated (0.98 ± 0.04 and 0.95 ± 0.06 in the LF and HF bands, respectively) and TF coherence in the LF and HF bands was high (0.97 ± 0.04 and 0.89 ± 0.08, respectively). Finally, the instantaneous power in the LF band was observed to significantly increase during head-up tilt by both HRV and PRV analysis. These results suggest that although some differences in the time-varying spectral indices extracted from HRV and PRV exist, mainly in the HF band associated with respiration, PRV could be used as a surrogate of HRV during non-stationary conditions, at least during the tilt table test

On the Discrete Spectrum of the Nonstationary Schrödinger Equation and Multipole Lumps of the Kadomtsev-Petviashvili I Equation

Science.gov (United States)

Villarroel, Javier; Ablowitz, Mark J.

The discrete spectrum of the nonstationary Schrödinger equation and localized solutions of the Kadomtsev-Petviashvili-I (KPI) equation are studied via the inverse scattering transform. It is shown that there exist infinitely many real and rationally decaying potentials which correspond to a discrete spectrum whose related eigenfunctions have multiple poles in the spectral parameter. An index or winding number is asssociated with each of these solutions. The resulting localized solutions of KPI behave as collection of individual humps with nonuniform dynamics.

Morphology of silver deposits produced by non-stationary steady regimes

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Popovski, Orce

2002-01-01

Morphology of silver electro deposits produced by periodical reversing of d.c. pulses was studied. Employing usual electrorefining conditions it is not possible to deposit compact silver layers from Ag non-complexing salts. This is due, mainly, to the high value of silver exchange current density and to the silver crystallographic peculiarity. In order to counteract this phenomenon, instead of usual, (stationer) potential-current regimes, non-stationary one was applied in this study. The effect of phosphate ions in the electrolyte was further clarified. A set of experimental conditions was applied so that silver was electrodeposited under mixed electrochemical and diffusion control. The primar cathodic pulse causes silver to nucleate with high density and nuclei to start to grow. The subsequent anodic pulse (current reversal) lowers the gradient of silver ion concentration and dissolves the most active growth centers as well. The combination of cathodic and anodic pulses diminishes the dendritic growth and helps smoothing of deposit surface to occur. Fine-grained and more compact deposits are produced, as compared to the ones grown in purely potentiostatic conditions. It was found that the addition of phosphate ions as well as the application of intensive electrolyte stirring change the Ag- grain morphology in favor of poli crystal whisker structure. (Author)

A unique Fock quantization for fields in non-stationary spacetimes

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cortez, Jerónimo; Marugán, Guillermo A. Mena; Olmedo, Javier; Velhinho, José M.

2010-01-01

In curved spacetimes, the lack of criteria for the construction of a unique quantization is a fundamental problem undermining the significance of the predictions of quantum field theory. Inequivalent quantizations lead to different physics. Recently, however, some uniqueness results have been obtained for fields in non-stationary settings. In particular, for vacua that are invariant under the background symmetries, a unitary implementation of the classical evolution suffices to pick up a unique Fock quantization in the case of Klein-Gordon fields with time-dependent mass, propagating in a static spacetime whose spatial sections are three-spheres. In fact, the field equation can be reinterpreted as describing the propagation in a Friedmann-Robertson-Walker spacetime after a suitable scaling of the field by a function of time. For this class of fields, we prove here an even stronger result about the Fock quantization: the uniqueness persists when one allows for linear time-dependent transformations of the field in order to account for a scaling by background functions. In total, paying attention to the dynamics, there exists a preferred choice of quantum field, and only one SO(4)-invariant Fock representation for it that respects the standard probabilistic interpretation along the evolution. The result has relevant implications e.g. in cosmology

A nonstationary Markov transition model for computing the relative risk of dementia before death

Science.gov (United States)

Yu, Lei; Griffith, William S.; Tyas, Suzanne L.; Snowdon, David A.; Kryscio, Richard J.

2010-01-01

This paper investigates the long-term behavior of the k-step transition probability matrix for a nonstationary discrete time Markov chain in the context of modeling transitions from intact cognition to dementia with mild cognitive impairment (MCI) and global impairment (GI) as intervening cognitive states. The authors derive formulas for the following absorption statistics: (1) the relative risk of absorption between competing absorbing states, and (2) the mean and variance of the number of visits among the transient states before absorption. Since absorption is not guaranteed, sufficient conditions are discussed to ensure that the substochastic matrix associated with transitions among transient states converges to zero in limit. Results are illustrated with an application to the Nun Study, a cohort of 678 participants, 75 to 107 years of age, followed longitudinally with up to ten cognitive assessments over a fifteen-year period. PMID:20087848

Instantaneous Purified Orbit: A New Tool for Analysis of Nonstationary Vibration of Rotor System

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Shi Dongfeng

2001-01-01

Full Text Available In some circumstances, vibration signals of large rotating machinery possess time-varying characteristics to some extent. Traditional diagnosis methods, such as FFT spectrum and orbit diagram, are confronted with a huge challenge to deal with this problem. This work aims at studying the four intrinsic drawbacks of conventional vibration signal processing method and instantaneous purified orbit (IPO on the basis of improved Fourier spectrum (IFS to analyze nonstationary vibration. On account of integration, the benefits of short period Fourier transform (SPFT and regular holospectrum, this method can intuitively reflect vibration characteristics of’a rotor system by means of parameter analysis for corresponding frequency ellipses. Practical examples, such as transient vibration in run-up stages and bistable condition of rotor show that IPO is a powerful tool for diagnosis and analysis of the vibration behavior of rotor systems.

Mathematical model of the competition life cycle under limited resources conditions: Problem statement for business community

Science.gov (United States)

Shelomentsev, A. G.; Medvedev, M. A.; Berg, D. B.; Lapshina, S. N.; Taubayev, A. A.; Davletbaev, R. H.; Savina, D. V.

2017-12-01

Present study is devoted to the development of competition life cycle mathematical model in the closed business community with limited resources. Growth of each agent is determined by the balance of input and output resource flows: input (cash) flow W is covering the variable V and constant C costs and growth dA/dt of the agent's assets A. Value of V is proportional to assets A that allows us to write down a first order non-stationary differential equation of the agent growth. Model includes the number of such equations due to the number of agents. The amount of resources that is available for agents vary in time. The balances of their input and output flows are changing correspondingly to the different stages of the competition life cycle. According to the theory of systems, the most complete description of any object or process is the model of its life cycle. Such a model describes all stages of its development: from the appearance ("birth") through development ("growth") to extinction ("death"). The model of the evolution of an individual firm, not contradicting the economic meaning of events actually observed in the market, is the desired result from modern AVMs for applied use. With a correct description of the market, rules for participants' actions, restrictions, forecasts can be obtained, which modern mathematics and the economy can not give.

3rd International Conference on Condition Monitoring of Machinery in Non-Stationary Operations

CERN Document Server

Rubini, Riccardo; D'Elia, Gianluca; Cocconcelli, Marco; Chaari, Fakher; Zimroz, Radoslaw; Bartelmus, Walter; Haddar, Mohamed

2014-01-01

This book presents the processings of the third edition of the Condition Monitoring of Machinery in Non-Stationary Operations (CMMNO13) which was held in Ferrara, Italy. This yearly event merges an international community of researchers who met – in 2011 in Wroclaw (Poland) and in 2012 in Hammamet (Tunisia) – to discuss issues of diagnostics of rotating machines operating in complex motion and/or load conditions. The growing interest of the industrial world on the topics covered by the CMMNO13 involves the fields of packaging, automotive, agricultural, mining, processing and wind machines in addition to that of the systems for data acquisition.The participation of speakers and visitors from industry makes the event an opportunity for immediate assessment of the potential applications of advanced methodologies for the signal analysis. Signals acquired from machines often contain contributions from several different components as well as noise. Therefore, the major challenge of condition monitoring is to po...

Non-stationary recruitment dynamics of rainbow smelt: the influence of environmental variables and variation in size structure and length-at-maturation

Science.gov (United States)

Feiner, Zachary S.; Bunnell, David B.; Hook, Tomas O.; Madenjian, Charles P.; Warner, David M.; Collingsworth, Paris D.

2015-01-01

Fish stock-recruitment dynamics may be difficult to elucidate because of nonstationary relationships resulting from shifting environmental conditions and fluctuations in important vital rates such as individual growth or maturation. The Great Lakes have experienced environmental stressors that may have changed population demographics and stock-recruitment relationships while causing the declines of several prey fish species, including rainbow smelt (Osmerus mordax). We investigated changes in the size and maturation of rainbow smelt in Lake Michigan and Lake Huron and recruitment dynamics of the Lake Michigan stock over the past four decades. Mean lengths and length-at-maturation of rainbow smelt generally declined over time in both lakes. To evaluate recruitment, we used both a Ricker model and a Kalman filter-random walk (KF-RW) model which incorporated nonstationarity in stock productivity by allowing the productivity term to vary over time. The KF-RW model explained nearly four times more variation in recruitment than the Ricker model, indicating the productivity of the Lake Michigan stock has increased. By accounting for this nonstationarity, we were able identify significant variations in stock productivity, evaluate its importance to rainbow smelt recruitment, and speculate on potential environmental causes for the shift. Our results suggest that investigating mechanisms driving nonstationary shifts in stock-recruit relationships can provide valuable insights into temporal variation in fish population dynamics.

Instabilities in a nonstationary model of self-gravitating disks. III. The phenomenon of lopsidedness and a comparison of perturbation modes

Science.gov (United States)

Mirtadjieva, K. T.; Nuritdinov, S. N.; Ruzibaev, J. K.; Khalid, Muhammad

2011-06-01

This is an examination of the gravitational instability of the major large-scale perturbation modes for a fixed value of the azimuthal wave number m = 1 in nonlinearly nonstationary disk models with isotropic and anisotropic velocity diagrams for the purpose of explaining the displacement of the nucleus away from the geometric center (lopsidedness) in spiral galaxies. Nonstationary analogs of the dispersion relations for these perturbation modes are obtained. Critical diagrams of the initial virial ratio are constructed from the rotation parameters for the models in each case. A comparative analysis is made of the instability growth rates for the major horizontal perturbation modes in terms of two models, and it is found that, on the average, the instability growth rate for the m = 1 mode with a radial wave number N = 3 almost always has a clear advantage relative to the other modes. An analysis of these results shows that if the initial total kinetic energy in an isotropic model is no more than 12.4% of the initial potential energy, then, regardless of the value of the rotation parameter Ω, an instability of the radial motions always occurs and causes the nucleus to shift away from the geometrical center. This instability is aperiodic when Ω = 0 and is oscillatory when Ω ≠ 0 . For the anisotropic model, this kind of structure involving the nucleus develops when the initial total kinetic energy in the model is no more than 30.6% of the initial potential energy.

On a strong solution of the non-stationary Navier-Stokes equations under slip or leak boundary conditions of friction type

Science.gov (United States)

Kashiwabara, Takahito

Strong solutions of the non-stationary Navier-Stokes equations under non-linearized slip or leak boundary conditions are investigated. We show that the problems are formulated by a variational inequality of parabolic type, to which uniqueness is established. Using Galerkin's method and deriving a priori estimates, we prove global and local existence for 2D and 3D slip problems respectively. For leak problems, under no-leak assumption at t=0 we prove local existence in 2D and 3D cases. Compatibility conditions for initial states play a significant role in the estimates.

Resolvent approach for two-dimensional scattering problems. Application to the nonstationary Schrödinger problem and the KPI equation

Science.gov (United States)

Boiti, M.; Pempinelli, F.; Pogrebkov, A. K.; Polivanov, M. C.

1992-11-01

The resolvent operator of the linear problem is determined as the full Green function continued in the complex domain in two variables. An analog of the known Hilbert identity is derived. We demonstrate the role of this identity in the study of two-dimensional scattering. Considering the nonstationary Schrödinger equation as an example, we show that all types of solutions of the linear problems, as well as spectral data known in the literature, are given as specific values of this unique function — the resolvent function. A new form of the inverse problem is formulated.

Non-stationary hydrologic frequency analysis using B-spline quantile regression

Science.gov (United States)

Nasri, B.; Bouezmarni, T.; St-Hilaire, A.; Ouarda, T. B. M. J.

2017-11-01

Hydrologic frequency analysis is commonly used by engineers and hydrologists to provide the basic information on planning, design and management of hydraulic and water resources systems under the assumption of stationarity. However, with increasing evidence of climate change, it is possible that the assumption of stationarity, which is prerequisite for traditional frequency analysis and hence, the results of conventional analysis would become questionable. In this study, we consider a framework for frequency analysis of extremes based on B-Spline quantile regression which allows to model data in the presence of non-stationarity and/or dependence on covariates with linear and non-linear dependence. A Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm was used to estimate quantiles and their posterior distributions. A coefficient of determination and Bayesian information criterion (BIC) for quantile regression are used in order to select the best model, i.e. for each quantile, we choose the degree and number of knots of the adequate B-spline quantile regression model. The method is applied to annual maximum and minimum streamflow records in Ontario, Canada. Climate indices are considered to describe the non-stationarity in the variable of interest and to estimate the quantiles in this case. The results show large differences between the non-stationary quantiles and their stationary equivalents for an annual maximum and minimum discharge with high annual non-exceedance probabilities.

Scalability of Direct Solver for Non-stationary Cahn-Hilliard Simulations with Linearized time Integration Scheme

KAUST Repository

Woźniak, M.

2016-06-02

We study the features of a new mixed integration scheme dedicated to solving the non-stationary variational problems. The scheme is composed of the FEM approximation with respect to the space variable coupled with a 3-leveled time integration scheme with a linearized right-hand side operator. It was applied in solving the Cahn-Hilliard parabolic equation with a nonlinear, fourth-order elliptic part. The second order of the approximation along the time variable was proven. Moreover, the good scalability of the software based on this scheme was confirmed during simulations. We verify the proposed time integration scheme by monitoring the Ginzburg-Landau free energy. The numerical simulations are performed by using a parallel multi-frontal direct solver executed over STAMPEDE Linux cluster. Its scalability was compared to the results of the three direct solvers, including MUMPS, SuperLU and PaSTiX.

Climate Informed Low Flow Frequency Analysis Using Nonstationary Modeling

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, D.; Guo, S.; Lian, Y.

2014-12-01

Stationarity is often assumed for frequency analysis of low flows in water resources management and planning. However, many studies have shown that flow characteristics, particularly the frequency spectrum of extreme hydrologic events,were modified by climate change and human activities and the conventional frequency analysis without considering the non-stationary characteristics may lead to costly design. The analysis presented in this paper was based on the more than 100 years of daily flow data from the Yichang gaging station 44 kilometers downstream of the Three Gorges Dam. The Mann-Kendall trend test under the scaling hypothesis showed that the annual low flows had significant monotonic trend, whereas an abrupt change point was identified in 1936 by the Pettitt test. The climate informed low flow frequency analysis and the divided and combined method are employed to account for the impacts from related climate variables and the nonstationarities in annual low flows. Without prior knowledge of the probability density function for the gaging station, six distribution functions including the Generalized Extreme Values (GEV), Pearson Type III, Gumbel, Gamma, Lognormal, and Weibull distributions have been tested to find the best fit, in which the local likelihood method is used to estimate the parameters. Analyses show that GEV had the best fit for the observed low flows. This study has also shown that the climate informed low flow frequency analysis is able to exploit the link between climate indices and low flows, which would account for the dynamic feature for reservoir management and provide more accurate and reliable designs for infrastructure and water supply.

Nonstationary temperature field in the fuel element; Nestacionarno temperatursko polje u gorivnom elementu

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Vehauc, A; Spasojevic, D [Institute of nuclear sciences Boris Kidric, Vinca, Beograd (Yugoslavia)

1970-03-15

Nonstationary temperature field in the fuel element was examined for spatial and time distribution of the specific power generated in the fuel element. Analytical method was developed for calculating the temperature variation in the fuel element of a nuclear reactor for a typical shape of the heat generation function. The method is based on series expansion of the temperature field by self functions and application of Laplace transformation in time coordinate. For numerical calculation of the temperature distribution a computer code was developed based on the proposed method and applied on the ZUSE-Z-23 computer. Razmatrano je nestacionarno temperatursko polje u preseku sipke gorivnog elementa za slucaj prostorne i vremenske raspodele specificne generacije snage u gorivnom elementu. Razradjen je analii postupak odredjivanja promene temperature u gorivu nuklearnog reaktora za tipican oblik funkcije generacije toplote. Postupak se zasniva na razvoju temperaturskog polja po sopstvenim funkcijama i primeni Laplasove transformacije po vremenskoj koordinati. Za efektivno nalazenje temperaturskog polja, postupak je programiran za digitalnu racunsku masinu ZUSE-Z-23 (author)

EDITORIAL: The nonstationary Casimir effect and quantum systems with moving boundaries

Science.gov (United States)

Barton, Gabriel; Dodonov, Victor V.; Man'ko, Vladimir I.

2005-03-01

This topical issue of Journal of Optics B: Quantum and Semiclassical Optics contains 16 contributions devoted to quantum systems with moving boundaries. In a broad sense, the papers continue the studies opened exactly 100 years ago by Einstein in his seminal work on the electrodynamics of moving bodies and the quantum nature of light. Another jubilee which we wish to celebrate by launching this issue is the 80th anniversary of the publication of two papers, where the first solutions of the classical Maxwell equations in a one-dimensional cavity with moving boundaries were obtained, by T H Havelock (1924 Some dynamical illustrations of the pressure of radiation and of adiabatic invariance Phil. Mag. 47 754-71) and by E L Nicolai (1925 On a dynamical illustration of the pressure of radiation Phil. Mag. 49 171-7). As was shown by Einstein, studying the fluctuations of the electromagnetic field inevitably leads one to its quantum (corpuscular) nature. Many papers in this issue deal with problems where moving boundaries produce parametric excitation of vacuum fluctuations of the field, which could result in several different observable effects, like the modification of the famous Casimir force, or the creation of real quanta from the vacuum. It is worth emphasizing that these phenomena, frequently referred to as nonstationary (or dynamical) Casimir effects, are no longer the province only of pure theorists: some experimental groups have already started long-term work aimed at observing such effects in the laboratory. Of course, many difficult problems remain to be resolved before this dream becomes reality. Several papers here show both important progress in this direction, and possible difficulties still to be tackled. Problems that have been considered include, in particular, decoherence, entanglement, and the roles of geometry and polarization. Other papers deal with fundamental problems like the Unruh effect, the interaction of accelerated relativistic atoms with

Dynamics of anoxygenic photosynthesis in an experimental green sulphur bacteria biofilm

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Pringault, Olivier; Epping, E.H.G.; Guyoneaud, Remy

1999-01-01

procedure to solve the non-stationary general diffusion equation. A close agreement was found between the areal rates of anoxygenic photosynthesis during the cycling procedure and the steady state before the cycling experiment. For the different layers of the biofilm, the maximum activity was observed after...

Solution of the non-stationary electron Boltzmann equation for a weakly ionized collision dominated plasma

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Winkler, R.; Wilhelm, J.

A detailed description is presented of calculating the nonstationary electron distribution function in a weakly ionized collision-dominated plasma from the Boltzmann kinetic equation respecting the effects of the time-dependent electric field, collision processes and the electron formation and loss. The finite difference approximation was used for numerical solution. Using the Crank-Nicolson method and parabolic interpolation between the grid points the Boltzmann equation was transformed to a system of linear equations which was then solved by iterations at a preset accuracy. Using the calculated distribution function values, the macroscopic plasma parameters were determined and the balance of electron density and energy checked in each time step. The mathematical procedure is illustrated using a neon plasma perturbed by a rectangular electric pulse. The time development shown of the distribution function at moments when the pulse was switched on and off demonstrates the great stability of the numerical solution. (J.U.)

An influence diagram for urban flood risk assessment through pluvial flood hazards under non-stationary conditions

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Åström, Helena Lisa Alexandra; Friis Hansen, P.; Garrè, Luca

2014-01-01

Urban flooding introduces significant risk to society. Non-stationarity leads to increased uncertainty and this is challenging to include in actual decision-making. The primary objective of this study was to develop a risk assessment and decision support framework for pluvial urban flood risk under...... non-stationary conditions using an influence diagram (ID) which is a Bayesian network (BN) extended with decision and utility nodes. Non-stationarity is considered to be the influence of climate change where extreme precipitation patterns change over time. The overall risk is quantified in monetary...... terms expressed as expected annual damage. The network is dynamic in as much as it assesses risk at different points in time. The framework provides means for decision-makers to assess how different decisions on flood adaptation affect the risk now and in the future. The result from the ID was extended...

Assessing the extent of non-stationary biases in GCMs

Science.gov (United States)

Nahar, Jannatun; Johnson, Fiona; Sharma, Ashish

2017-06-01

General circulation models (GCMs) are the main tools for estimating changes in the climate for the future. The imperfect representation of climate models introduces biases in the simulations that need to be corrected prior to their use for impact assessments. Bias correction methods generally assume that the bias calculated over the historical period does not change and can be applied to the future. This study investigates this assumption by considering the extent and nature of bias non-stationarity using 20th century precipitation and temperature simulations from six CMIP5 GCMs across Australia. Four statistics (mean, standard deviation, 10th and 90th quantiles) in monthly and seasonal biases are obtained for three different time window lengths (10, 25 and 33 years) to examine the properties of bias over time. This approach is repeated for two different phases of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO), which is known to have strong influences on the Australian climate. It is found that bias non-stationarity at decadal timescales is indeed an issue over some of Australia for some GCMs. When considering interdecadal variability there are significant difference in the bias between positive and negative phases of the IPO. Regional analyses confirmed these findings with the largest differences seen on the east coast of Australia, where IPO impacts tend to be the strongest. The nature of the bias non-stationarity found in this study suggests that it will be difficult to modify existing bias correction approaches to account for non-stationary biases. A more practical approach for impact assessments that use bias correction maybe to use a selection of GCMs where the assumption of bias non-stationarity holds.

H2 emission from non-stationary magnetized bow shocks

Science.gov (United States)

Tram, L. N.; Lesaffre, P.; Cabrit, S.; Gusdorf, A.; Nhung, P. T.

2018-01-01

When a fast moving star or a protostellar jet hits an interstellar cloud, the surrounding gas gets heated and illuminated: a bow shock is born that delineates the wake of the impact. In such a process, the new molecules that are formed and excited in the gas phase become accessible to observations. In this paper, we revisit models of H2 emission in these bow shocks. We approximate the bow shock by a statistical distribution of planar shocks computed with a magnetized shock model. We improve on previous works by considering arbitrary bow shapes, a finite irradiation field and by including the age effect of non-stationary C-type shocks on the excitation diagram and line profiles of H2. We also examine the dependence of the line profiles on the shock velocity and on the viewing angle: we suggest that spectrally resolved observations may greatly help to probe the dynamics inside the bow shock. For reasonable bow shapes, our analysis shows that low-velocity shocks largely contribute to H2 excitation diagram. This can result in an observational bias towards low velocities when planar shocks are used to interpret H2 emission from an unresolved bow. We also report a large magnetization bias when the velocity of the planar model is set independently. Our 3D models reproduce excitation diagrams in BHR 71 and Orion bow shocks better than previous 1D models. Our 3D model is also able to reproduce the shape and width of the broad H2 1-0S(1) line profile in an Orion bow shock (Brand et al. 1989).

Fluctuations and pseudo long range dependence in network flows: A non-stationary Poisson process model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yu-Dong, Chen; Li, Li; Yi, Zhang; Jian-Ming, Hu

2009-01-01

In the study of complex networks (systems), the scaling phenomenon of flow fluctuations refers to a certain power-law between the mean flux (activity) (F i ) of the i-th node and its variance σ i as σ i α (F i ) α . Such scaling laws are found to be prevalent both in natural and man-made network systems, but the understanding of their origins still remains limited. This paper proposes a non-stationary Poisson process model to give an analytical explanation of the non-universal scaling phenomenon: the exponent α varies between 1/2 and 1 depending on the size of sampling time window and the relative strength of the external/internal driven forces of the systems. The crossover behaviour and the relation of fluctuation scaling with pseudo long range dependence are also accounted for by the model. Numerical experiments show that the proposed model can recover the multi-scaling phenomenon. (general)

Non-stationary reconstruction for dynamic fluorescence molecular tomography with extended kalman filter.

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, Xin; Wang, Hongkai; Yan, Zhuangzhi

2016-11-01

Dynamic fluorescence molecular tomography (FMT) plays an important role in drug delivery research. However, the majority of current reconstruction methods focus on solving the stationary FMT problems. If the stationary reconstruction methods are applied to the time-varying fluorescence measurements, the reconstructed results may suffer from a high level of artifacts. In addition, based on the stationary methods, only one tomographic image can be obtained after scanning one circle projection data. As a result, the movement of fluorophore in imaged object may not be detected due to the relative long data acquisition time (typically >1 min). In this paper, we apply extended kalman filter (EKF) technique to solve the non-stationary fluorescence tomography problem. Especially, to improve the EKF reconstruction performance, the generalized inverse of kalman gain is calculated by a second-order iterative method. The numerical simulation, phantom, and in vivo experiments are performed to evaluate the performance of the method. The experimental results indicate that by using the proposed EKF-based second-order iterative (EKF-SOI) method, we cannot only clearly resolve the time-varying distributions of fluorophore within imaged object, but also greatly improve the reconstruction time resolution (~2.5 sec/frame) which makes it possible to detect the movement of fluorophore during the imaging processes.

Cycles Tipping the Scale between Death and Survival (=``Life")

Science.gov (United States)

Halberg, F.; Cornélissen, G.; Sothern, R. B.; Katinas, G. S.; Schwartzkopff, O.; Otsuka, K.

Systematic chronobiologically interpreted ambulatory bloodpressure (BP) and heart rate (HR) monitoring (C-ABPM 7D/24H is now automatically possible; if continued around the clock over a week, this approach detects vascular variability disorders (VVDs) that include, among others, high BP itself and CHAT, short for circadian hyper-amplitude-tension. BP is never a constant ``true" (resting) value and can be more reliably diagnosed by CABPM 7d/24h as MESOR-hypertension, MH. CHAT carries a risk of hard events greater than MH and can be treated, among other VVDs, which if they coexist constitute vascular variability syndromes (VVSs). A project on The BIOsphere and the COSmos, BIOCOS (corne001@umn.edu), provides, in exchange for the data, cost-free analyses and the opportunity of obtaining monitors at a cost reduction of 80% complements the records from purely physical tools for surveilling the variable sun, by validating in the biosphere the reality of intermittent, aeolian envi ronmental spectral components that can be more consistent than their physical counterparts once they are coded in genes. C-ABPM 7D/24H indicates relevant associations of space weather with human health and ecology. Monitoring reveals, around and in living matter, a system of transdisciplinary cycles with common average periods, quantified with point-and-interval estimates of parameters. The cycles in space climate are critical in discussing global warming. The cycles' periods are described as congruent when their CIs (95\\ intervals) overlie or overlap and the amplitudes' CIs' lower limits are positive. Some congruent cycles in organisms, counterparts of the environmental day and the seasons, relate to electromagnetic radiation in the visible domain; these are the usually environmentally synchronized socio-photo-thermoperiodisms (photics). The biosphere also resonates with or is pulled or driven by nonstationary, environmental nonphotic cycles (nonphotics) -- particle emissi ons from the sun and

Black holes evaporation and big mass particle (maximon, intermediate boson) creation in nonstationary universe

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Man'ko, V.I.; Markov, M.A.

1984-01-01

This chapter considers the process of creation of particles with maximally big masses (maximons, intermediate bosons) in the nonstationary Universe within the framework of neutral and charged scalar field theory. The conclusions of the matter creation model for real particles (resonances) and hypothetical particles (maximons, friedmons, intermediate bosons) are analyzed. It is determined that if the mechanism of maximon's creation exists, then these particles must be stable. The maximons could be the final states of decaying black holes. A possible mechanism of cosmic ray creation as a result of ''vacuum'' generation of known unstable particles is discussed. The limits upon the mass and the life time of intermediate bosons are calculated. It is demonstrated that the creation of masses greater than 10 GeV, and with life times less than 10- 24 sec and quantity of elementary particles greater than 100 are in contradiction with the particle creation mechanism and the experimental mass density in the Universe. The formalism of the examined method and its vacuum properties are discussed in an appendix

Development of the Nonstationary Incremental Analysis Update Algorithm for Sequential Data Assimilation System

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yoo-Geun Ham

2016-01-01

Full Text Available This study introduces a modified version of the incremental analysis updates (IAU, called the nonstationary IAU (NIAU method, to improve the assimilation accuracy of the IAU while keeping the continuity of the analysis. Similar to the IAU, the NIAU is designed to add analysis increments at every model time step to improve the continuity in the intermittent data assimilation. However, unlike the IAU, the NIAU procedure uses time-evolved forcing using the forward operator as corrections to the model. The solution of the NIAU is superior to that of the forward IAU, of which analysis is performed at the beginning of the time window for adding the IAU forcing, in terms of the accuracy of the analysis field. It is because, in the linear systems, the NIAU solution equals that in an intermittent data assimilation method at the end of the assimilation interval. To have the filtering property in the NIAU, a forward operator to propagate the increment is reconstructed with only dominant singular vectors. An illustration of those advantages of the NIAU is given using the simple 40-variable Lorenz model.

New Non-Stationary Gradient Model of Heat-Mass-Electric Charge Transfer in Thin Porous Media

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

V. Rogankov

2017-10-01

Full Text Available The well-known complicated system of non-equilibrium balance equations for a continuous fluid (f medium needs the new non-Gibbsian model of f-phase to be applicable for description of the heterogeneous porous media (PMs. It should be supplemented by the respective coupled thermal and caloric equations of state (EOS developed specially for PMs to become adequate and solvable for the irreversible transport f-processes. The set of standard assumptions adopted by the linear (or quasi-linear non-equilibrium thermodynamics are based on the empirical gradient-caused correlations between flows and forces. It leads, in particular, to the oversimplified stationary solutions for PMs. The most questionable but typical modeling suppositions of the stationary gradient (SG theory are: 1 the assumption of incompressibility accepted, as a rule, for f-flows; 2 the ignorance of distinctions between the hydrophilic and hydrophobic influence of a porous matrix on the properties; 3 the omission of effects arising due to the concomitant phase intra-porous transitions between the neighboring f-fragments with the sharp differences in densities; 4 the use of exclusively Gibbsian (i.e. homogeneous and everywhere differentiable description of any f-phase in PM; 5 the very restrictive reduction of the mechanical velocity field to its specific potential form in the balance equation of f-motion as well as of the heat velocity field in the balance equation of internal energy; 6 the neglect of the new specific peculiarities arising due to the study of any non-equilibrium PM in the meso- and nano-scales of a finite-size macroscopic (N,V-system of discrete particles. This work is an attempt to develop the alternative non-stationary gradient (NSG model of real irreversible processes in PM. Another aim is to apply it without the above restrictions 1-6 to the description of f-flows through the obviously non-Gibbsian thin porous medium (TPM. We will suppose that it is composed by two

Study of the Evolution of the Electric Structure of a Convective Cloud Using the Data of a Numerical Nonstationary Three-Dimensional Model

Science.gov (United States)

Veremey, N. E.; Dovgalyuk, Yu. A.; Zatevakhin, M. A.; Ignatyev, A. A.; Morozov, V. N.

2014-04-01

Numerical nonstationary three-dimensional model of a convective cloud with parameterized description of microphysical processes with allowance for the electrization processes is considered. The results of numerical modeling of the cloud evolution for the specified atmospheric conditions are presented. The spatio-temporal distribution of the main cloud characteristics including the volume charge density and the electric field is obtained. The calculation results show that the electric structure of the cloud is different at its various life stages, i.e., it varies from unipolar to dipolar and then to tripolar. This conclusion is in fair agreement with the field studies.

Numerical Analysis of the Three-Dimensional Nonstationary Flow of Ideal Gas in the Last Stage of Turbine Machine Taking into Consideration the Nonaxisymmetric Exhaust Pipe Branch

OpenAIRE

Kolodyazhnaya, Lyubov Vladimirovna; Rzadkowski, Romuald; Gnesin, Vitaly Isaevich

2016-01-01

A problem related to the forecast of the aeroelastic behavior and aeroelastic instability of blades (in particular self-oscillations, flutter, and resonance vibrations) becomes of great importance for the development of high-loaded compressor and vent rows and the last turbine stages whose long and flexible blades can be exposed to such phenomena. The solution of this problem requires the development of new models for the nonstationary three-dimensional flow, the use of contemporary numeric m...

Revisiting historical climatic signals to better explore the future: prospects of water cycle changes in Central Sahel

Science.gov (United States)

Leauthaud, C.; Demarty, J.; Cappelaere, B.; Grippa, M.; Kergoat, L.; Velluet, C.; Guichard, F.; Mougin, E.; Chelbi, S.; Sultan, B.

2015-06-01

Rainfall and climatic conditions are the main drivers of natural and cultivated vegetation productivity in the semiarid region of Central Sahel. In a context of decreasing cultivable area per capita, understanding and predicting changes in the water cycle are crucial. Yet, it remains challenging to project future climatic conditions in West Africa since there is no consensus on the sign of future precipitation changes in simulations coming from climate models. The Sahel region has experienced severe climatic changes in the past 60 years that can provide a first basis to understand the response of the water cycle to non-stationary conditions in this part of the world. The objective of this study was to better understand the response of the water cycle to highly variable climatic regimes in Central Sahel using historical climate records and the coupling of a land surface energy and water model with a vegetation model that, when combined, simulated the Sahelian water, energy and vegetation cycles. To do so, we relied on a reconstructed long-term climate series in Niamey, Republic of Niger, in which three precipitation regimes can be distinguished with a relative deficit exceeding 25% for the driest period compared to the wettest period. Two temperature scenarios (+2 and +4 °C) consistent with future warming scenarios were superimposed to this climatic signal to generate six virtual future 20-year climate time series. Simulations by the two coupled models forced by these virtual scenarios showed a strong response of the water budget and its components to temperature and precipitation changes, including decreases in transpiration, runoff and drainage for all scenarios but those with highest precipitation. Such climatic changes also strongly impacted soil temperature and moisture. This study illustrates the potential of using the strong climatic variations recorded in the past decades to better understand potential future climate variations.

Superconducting qubit in a nonstationary transmission line cavity: Parametric excitation, periodic pumping, and energy dissipation

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Zhukov, A.A. [N.L. Dukhov All-Russia Research Institute of Automatics, 127055 Moscow (Russian Federation); National Research Nuclear University (MEPhI), 115409 Moscow (Russian Federation); Shapiro, D.S., E-mail: shapiro.dima@gmail.com [N.L. Dukhov All-Russia Research Institute of Automatics, 127055 Moscow (Russian Federation); V.A. Kotel' nikov Institute of Radio Engineering and Electronics, Russian Academy of Sciences, 125009 Moscow (Russian Federation); Moscow Institute of Physics and Technology, Dolgoprudny, Moscow Region 141700 (Russian Federation); National University of Science and Technology MISIS, 119049 Moscow (Russian Federation); Remizov, S.V. [N.L. Dukhov All-Russia Research Institute of Automatics, 127055 Moscow (Russian Federation); V.A. Kotel' nikov Institute of Radio Engineering and Electronics, Russian Academy of Sciences, 125009 Moscow (Russian Federation); Pogosov, W.V. [N.L. Dukhov All-Russia Research Institute of Automatics, 127055 Moscow (Russian Federation); Moscow Institute of Physics and Technology, Dolgoprudny, Moscow Region 141700 (Russian Federation); Institute for Theoretical and Applied Electrodynamics, Russian Academy of Sciences, 125412 Moscow (Russian Federation); Lozovik, Yu.E. [N.L. Dukhov All-Russia Research Institute of Automatics, 127055 Moscow (Russian Federation); National Research Nuclear University (MEPhI), 115409 Moscow (Russian Federation); Moscow Institute of Physics and Technology, Dolgoprudny, Moscow Region 141700 (Russian Federation); Institute of Spectroscopy, Russian Academy of Sciences, 142190 Moscow Region, Troitsk (Russian Federation)

2017-02-12

We consider a superconducting qubit coupled to the nonstationary transmission line cavity with modulated frequency taking into account energy dissipation. Previously, it was demonstrated that in the case of a single nonadiabatical modulation of a cavity frequency there are two channels of a two-level system excitation which are due to the absorption of Casimir photons and due to the counterrotating wave processes responsible for the dynamical Lamb effect. We show that the parametric periodical modulation of the resonator frequency can increase dramatically the excitation probability. Remarkably, counterrotating wave processes under such a modulation start to play an important role even in the resonant regime. Our predictions can be used to control qubit-resonator quantum states as well as to study experimentally different channels of a parametric qubit excitation. - Highlights: • Coupled qubit-resonator system under the modulation of a resonator frequency is considered. • Counterrotating terms of the Hamiltonian are of importance even in the resonance. • Qubit excited state population is highest if driving frequency matches dressed-state energy.

Some strange numerical solutions of the non-stationary Navier-Stokes equations in pipes

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Rummler, B.

2001-07-01

A general class of boundary-pressure-driven flows of incompressible Newtonian fluids in three-dimensional pipes with known steady laminar realizations is investigated. Considering the laminar velocity as a 3D-vector-function of the cross-section-circle arguments, we fix the scale for the velocity by the L{sub 2}-norm of the laminar velocity. The usual new variables are introduced to get dimension-free Navier-Stokes equations. The characteristic physical and geometrical quantities are subsumed in the energetic Reynolds number Re and a parameter {psi}, which involves the energetic ratio and the directions of the boundary-driven part and the pressure-driven part of the laminar flow. The solution of non-stationary dimension-free Navier-Stokes equations is sought in the form u=u{sub L}+u, where u{sub L} is the scaled laminar velocity and periodical conditions in center-line-direction are prescribed for u. An autonomous system (S) of ordinary differential equations for the time-dependent coefficients of the spatial Stokes eigenfunction is got by application of the Galerkin-method to the dimension-free Navier-Stokes equations for u. The finite-dimensional approximations u{sub N({lambda}}{sub )} of u are defined in the usual way. (orig.)

Statistical downscaling of rainfall: a non-stationary and multi-resolution approach

Science.gov (United States)

Rashid, Md. Mamunur; Beecham, Simon; Chowdhury, Rezaul Kabir

2016-05-01

A novel downscaling technique is proposed in this study whereby the original rainfall and reanalysis variables are first decomposed by wavelet transforms and rainfall is modelled using the semi-parametric additive model formulation of Generalized Additive Model in Location, Scale and Shape (GAMLSS). The flexibility of the GAMLSS model makes it feasible as a framework for non-stationary modelling. Decomposition of a rainfall series into different components is useful to separate the scale-dependent properties of the rainfall as this varies both temporally and spatially. The study was conducted at the Onkaparinga river catchment in South Australia. The model was calibrated over the period 1960 to 1990 and validated over the period 1991 to 2010. The model reproduced the monthly variability and statistics of the observed rainfall well with Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) values of 0.66 and 0.65 for the calibration and validation periods, respectively. It also reproduced well the seasonal rainfall over the calibration (NSE = 0.37) and validation (NSE = 0.69) periods for all seasons. The proposed model was better than the tradition modelling approach (application of GAMLSS to the original rainfall series without decomposition) at reproducing the time-frequency properties of the observed rainfall, and yet it still preserved the statistics produced by the traditional modelling approach. When downscaling models were developed with general circulation model (GCM) historical output datasets, the proposed wavelet-based downscaling model outperformed the traditional downscaling model in terms of reproducing monthly rainfall for both the calibration and validation periods.

Kinetic features and non-stationary electron trapping in paraxial magnetic nozzles

Science.gov (United States)

Sánchez-Arriaga, G.; Zhou, J.; Ahedo, E.; Martínez-Sánchez, M.; Ramos, J. J.

2018-03-01

The paraxial expansion of a collisionless plasma jet into vacuum, guided by a magnetic nozzle, is studied with an Eulerian and non-stationary Vlasov-Poisson solver. Parametric analyzes varying the magnetic field expansion rate, the size of the simulation box, and the electrostatic potential fall are presented. After choosing the potential fall leading to a zero net current beam, the steady states of the simulations exhibit a quasi-neutral region followed by a downstream sheath. The latter, an unavoidable consequence of the finite size of the computational domain, does not affect the quasi-neutral region if the box size is chosen appropriately. The steady state presents a strong decay of the perpendicular temperature of the electrons, whose profile versus the inverse of the magnetic field does not depend on the expansion rate within the quasi-neutral region. As a consequence, the electron distribution function is highly anisotropic downstream. The simulations revealed that the ions reach a higher velocity during the transient than in the steady state and their distribution functions are not far from mono-energetic. The density percentage of the population of electrons trapped during the transient, which is computed self-consistently by the code, is up to 25% of the total electron density in the quasi-neutral region. It is demonstrated that the exact amount depends on the history of the system and the steady state is not unique. Nevertheless, the amount of trapped electrons is smaller than the one assumed heuristically by kinetic stationary theories.

Truncated Painleve expansion: Tanh-traveling wave solutions and reduction of sine-Poisson equation to a quadrature for stationary and nonstationary three-dimensional collisionless cold plasma

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ibrahim, R. S.; El-Kalaawy, O. H.

2006-01-01

The relativistic nonlinear self-consistent equations for a collisionless cold plasma with stationary ions [R. S. Ibrahim, IMA J. Appl. Math. 68, 523 (2003)] are extended to 3 and 3+1 dimensions. The resulting system of equations is reduced to the sine-Poisson equation. The truncated Painleve expansion and reduction of the partial differential equation to a quadrature problem (RQ method) are described and applied to obtain the traveling wave solutions of the sine-Poisson equation for stationary and nonstationary equations in 3 and 3+1 dimensions describing the charge-density equilibrium configuration model

Formation of (Xe2H)* centers in solid Xe via recombination: nonstationary luminescence and 'internal electron emission'

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Savchenko, E.V.; Khyzhniy, I.V.; Uyutov, S.A.; Gumenchuk, G.B.; Ponomarev, A.N.; Bondybey, V.E.; Beyer, M.K.

2010-01-01

The formation of excimers (Xe 2 H) * in solid Xe doped with molecular hydrogen under electron beam is studied using the original two-stage technique of nonstationary (NS) cathodoluminescence (CL) in combination with the current activation spectroscopy method - thermally stimulated exoelectron emission (TSEE). Charged species were generated using a high-density electron beam. The species produced were then probed with a low density beam on gradual sample heating. The near UV emission of the (Xe 2 H) * was used to monitor the neutralization process. It is found that the temperature behavior of the NS CL band of (Xe 2 H) * clearly correlates with the yield of TSEE measured after identical pre-irradiation of the sample. The fingerprints of the thermally stimulated detrapping of electrons - 'internal electron emission' in the spectrum of NS CL point to the essential role of neutralization reaction in the stability of the proton solvated by rare-gas atoms.

Accumulated damage evaluation for a piping system by the response factor on non-stationary random process, 2

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Shintani, Masanori

1988-01-01

This paper shows that the average and variance of the accumulated damage caused by earthquakes on the piping system attached to a building are related to the seismic response factor λ. The earthquakes refered to in this paper are of a non-stationary random process kind. The average is proportional to λ 2 and the variance to λ 4 . The analytical values of the average and variance for a single-degree-of-freedom system are compared with those obtained from computer simulations. Here the model of the building is a single-degree-of-freedom system. Both average of accumulated damage are approximately equal. The variance obtained from the analysis does not coincide with that from simulations. The reason is considered to be the forced vibraiton by sinusoidal waves, and the sinusoidal waves included random waves. Taking account of amplitude magnification factor, the values of the variance approach those obtained from simulations. (author)

Designing and operating infrastructure for nonstationary flood risk management

Science.gov (United States)

Doss-Gollin, J.; Farnham, D. J.; Lall, U.

2017-12-01

Climate exhibits organized low-frequency and regime-like variability at multiple time scales, causing the risk associated with climate extremes such as floods and droughts to vary in time. Despite broad recognition of this nonstationarity, there has been little theoretical development of ideas for the design and operation of infrastructure considering the regime structure of such changes and their potential predictability. We use paleo streamflow reconstructions to illustrate an approach to the design and operation of infrastructure to address nonstationary flood and drought risk. Specifically, we consider the tradeoff between flood control and conservation storage, and develop design and operation principles for allocating these storage volumes considering both a m-year project planning period and a n-year historical sampling record. As n increases, the potential uncertainty in probabilistic estimates of the return periods associated with the T-year extreme event decreases. As the duration m of the future operation period decreases, the uncertainty associated with the occurrence of the T-year event also increases. Finally, given the quasi-periodic nature of the system it may be possible to offer probabilistic predictions of the conditions in the m-year future period, especially if m is small. In the context of such predictions, one can consider that a m-year prediction may have lower bias, but higher variance, than would be associated with using a stationary estimate from the preceding n years. This bias-variance trade-off, and the potential for considering risk management for multiple values of m, provides an interesting system design challenge. We use wavelet-based simulation models in a Bayesian framework to estimate these biases and uncertainty distributions and devise a risk-optimized decision rule for the allocation of flood and conservation storage. The associated theoretical development also provides a methodology for the sizing of storage for new

Method of Data storing, collection and aggregation for definition of life-cycle resources of electromechanical equipment

Science.gov (United States)

Zhukovskiy, Y.; Koteleva, N.

2017-10-01

Analysis of technical and technological conditions for the emergence of emergency situations during the operation of electromechanical equipment of enterprises of the mineral and raw materials complex shows that when developing the basis for ensuring safe operation, it is necessary to take into account not only the technical condition, but also the non-stationary operation of the operating conditions of equipment, and the nonstationarity of operational operating parameters of technological processes. Violations of the operation of individual parts of the machine, not detected in time, can lead to severe accidents at work, as well as to unplanned downtime and loss of profits. That is why, the issues of obtaining and processing Big data obtained during the life cycle of electromechanical equipment, for assessing the current state of the electromechanical equipment used, timely diagnostics of emergency and pre-emergency modes of its operation, estimating the residual resource, as well as prediction the technical state on the basis of machine learning are very important. This article is dedicated to developing the special method of data storing, collection and aggregation for definition of life-cycle resources of electromechanical equipment. This method can be used in working with big data and can allow extracting the knowledge from different data types: the plants’ historical data and the factory historical data. The data of the plants contains the information about electromechanical equipment operation and the data of the factory contains the information about a production of electromechanical equipment.

Compensating for the impact of non-stationary spherical air cavities on IMRT dose delivery in transverse magnetic fields

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bol, G H; Lagendijk, J J W; Raaymakers, B W

2015-01-01

With the development of the 1.5 T MRI linear accelerator and the clinical introduction of the 0.35 T ViewRay™ system, delivering intensity-modulated radiotherapy (IMRT) in a transverse magnetic field becomes increasingly important. When delivering dose in the presence of a transverse magnetic field, one of the most prominent phenomena occurs around air cavities: the electron return effect (ERE). For stationary, spherical air cavities which are centrally located in the phantom, the ERE can be compensated by using opposing beams configurations in combination with IMRT. In this paper we investigate the effects of non-stationary spherical air cavities, centrally located within the target in a phantom containing no organs at risk, on IMRT dose delivery in 0.35 T and 1.5 T transverse magnetic fields by using Monte Carlo simulations. We show that IMRT can be used for compensating ERE around those air cavities, except for intrafraction appearing or disappearing air cavities. For these cases, gating or plan re-optimization should be used. We also analyzed the option of using IMRT plans optimized at 0 T to be delivered in the presence of 0.35 T and 1.5 T magnetic field. When delivering dose at 0.35 T, IMRT plans optimized at 0 T and 0.35 T perform equally well regarding ERE compensation. Within a 1.5 T environment, the 1.5 T optimized plans perform slightly better for the static and random intra- and interfraction air cavity movement cases than the 0 T optimized plans. For non-stationary spherical air cavities with a baseline shift (intra- and interfraction) the 0 T optimized plans perform better. These observations show the intrinsic ERE compensation by equidistant and opposing beam configurations for spherical air cavities within the target area. IMRT gives some additional compensation, but only in case of correct positioning of the air cavity according to the IMRT compensation. For intrafraction appearing or disappearing air cavities this correct

Performance analysis of spectral-phase-encoded optical code-division multiple-access system regarding the incorrectly decoded signal as a nonstationary random process

Science.gov (United States)

Yan, Meng; Yao, Minyu; Zhang, Hongming

2005-11-01

The performance of a spectral-phase-encoded (SPE) optical code-division multiple-access (OCDMA) system is analyzed. Regarding the incorrectly decoded signal (IDS) as a nonstationary random process, we derive a novel probability distribution for it. The probability distribution of the IDS is considered a chi-squared distribution with degrees of freedom r=1, which is more reasonable and accurate than in previous work. The bit error rate (BER) of an SPE OCDMA system under multiple-access interference is evaluated. Numerical results show that the system can sustain very low BER even when there are multiple simultaneous users, and as the code length becomes longer or the initial pulse becomes shorter, the system performs better.

ALIF: A New Promising Technique for the Decomposition and Analysis of Nonlinear and Nonstationary Signals

Science.gov (United States)

Cicone, A.; Zhou, H.; Piersanti, M.; Materassi, M.; Spogli, L.

2017-12-01

Nonlinear and nonstationary signals are ubiquitous in real life. Their decomposition and analysis is of crucial importance in many research fields. Traditional techniques, like Fourier and wavelet Transform have been proved to be limited in this context. In the last two decades new kind of nonlinear methods have been developed which are able to unravel hidden features of these kinds of signals. In this poster we present a new method, called Adaptive Local Iterative Filtering (ALIF). This technique, originally developed to study mono-dimensional signals, unlike any other algorithm proposed so far, can be easily generalized to study two or higher dimensional signals. Furthermore, unlike most of the similar methods, it does not require any a priori assumption on the signal itself, so that the technique can be applied as it is to any kind of signals. Applications of ALIF algorithm to real life signals analysis will be presented. Like, for instance, the behavior of the water level near the coastline in presence of a Tsunami, length of the day signal, pressure measured at ground level on a global grid, radio power scintillation from GNSS signals,

New generation non-stationary portable neutron generators for biophysical applications of Neutron Activation Analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Marchese, N; Cannuli, A; Caccamo, M T; Pace, C

2017-01-01

Neutron sources are increasingly employed in a wide range of research fields. For some specific purposes an alternative to existing large-scale neutron scattering facilities, can be offered by the new generation of portable neutron devices. This review reports an overview for such recently available neutron generators mainly addressed to biophysics applications with specific reference to portable non-stationary neutron generators applied in Neutron Activation Analysis (NAA). The review reports a description of a typical portable neutron generator set-up addressed to biophysics applications. New generation portable neutron devices, for some specific applications, can constitute an alternative to existing large-scale neutron scattering facilities. Deuterium-Deuterium pulsed neutron sources able to generate 2.5MeV neutrons, with a neutron yield of 1.0×10 6 n/s, a pulse rate of 250Hz to 20kHz and a duty factor varying from 5% to 100%, when combined with solid-state photon detectors, show that this kind of compact devices allow rapid and user-friendly elemental analysis. "This article is part of a Special Issue entitled "Science for Life" Guest Editor: Dr. Austen Angell, Dr. Salvatore Magazù and Dr. Federica Migliardo". Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Multipactor threshold calculation of coaxial transmission lines in microwave applications with nonstationary statistical theory

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lin, S.; Li, Y.; Liu, C.; Wang, H.; Zhang, N.; Cui, W.; Neuber, A.

2015-01-01

This paper presents a statistical theory for the initial onset of multipactor breakdown in coaxial transmission lines, taking both the nonuniform electric field and random electron emission velocity into account. A general numerical method is first developed to construct the joint probability density function based on the approximate equation of the electron trajectory. The nonstationary dynamics of the multipactor process on both surfaces of coaxial lines are modelled based on the probability of various impacts and their corresponding secondary emission. The resonant assumption of the classical theory on the independent double-sided and single-sided impacts is replaced by the consideration of their interaction. As a result, the time evolutions of the electron population for exponential growth and absorption on both inner and outer conductor, in response to the applied voltage above and below the multipactor breakdown level, are obtained to investigate the exact mechanism of multipactor discharge in coaxial lines. Furthermore, the multipactor threshold predictions of the presented model are compared with experimental results using measured secondary emission yield of the tested samples which shows reasonable agreement. Finally, the detailed impact scenario reveals that single-surface multipactor is more likely to occur with a higher outer to inner conductor radius ratio

Decoding the non-stationary neuron spike trains by dual Monte Carlo point process estimation in motor Brain Machine Interfaces.

Science.gov (United States)

Liao, Yuxi; Li, Hongbao; Zhang, Qiaosheng; Fan, Gong; Wang, Yiwen; Zheng, Xiaoxiang

2014-01-01

Decoding algorithm in motor Brain Machine Interfaces translates the neural signals to movement parameters. They usually assume the connection between the neural firings and movements to be stationary, which is not true according to the recent studies that observe the time-varying neuron tuning property. This property results from the neural plasticity and motor learning etc., which leads to the degeneration of the decoding performance when the model is fixed. To track the non-stationary neuron tuning during decoding, we propose a dual model approach based on Monte Carlo point process filtering method that enables the estimation also on the dynamic tuning parameters. When applied on both simulated neural signal and in vivo BMI data, the proposed adaptive method performs better than the one with static tuning parameters, which raises a promising way to design a long-term-performing model for Brain Machine Interfaces decoder.

A Global Chance-Constraint for Stochastic Inventory Systems under Service Level Constraints

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Rossi, R.; Tarim, S.A.; Hnich, B.; Prestwich, S.

2008-01-01

We consider a class of production/inventory control problems that has a single product and a single stocking location, for which a stochastic demand with a known non-stationary probability distribution is given. Under the widely-known replenishment cycle policy the problem of computing policy

Time-Frequency Analysis of Non-Stationary Biological Signals with Sparse Linear Regression Based Fourier Linear Combiner

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yubo Wang

2017-06-01

Full Text Available It is often difficult to analyze biological signals because of their nonlinear and non-stationary characteristics. This necessitates the usage of time-frequency decomposition methods for analyzing the subtle changes in these signals that are often connected to an underlying phenomena. This paper presents a new approach to analyze the time-varying characteristics of such signals by employing a simple truncated Fourier series model, namely the band-limited multiple Fourier linear combiner (BMFLC. In contrast to the earlier designs, we first identified the sparsity imposed on the signal model in order to reformulate the model to a sparse linear regression model. The coefficients of the proposed model are then estimated by a convex optimization algorithm. The performance of the proposed method was analyzed with benchmark test signals. An energy ratio metric is employed to quantify the spectral performance and results show that the proposed method Sparse-BMFLC has high mean energy (0.9976 ratio and outperforms existing methods such as short-time Fourier transfrom (STFT, continuous Wavelet transform (CWT and BMFLC Kalman Smoother. Furthermore, the proposed method provides an overall 6.22% in reconstruction error.

Time-Frequency Analysis of Non-Stationary Biological Signals with Sparse Linear Regression Based Fourier Linear Combiner.

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Yubo; Veluvolu, Kalyana C

2017-06-14

It is often difficult to analyze biological signals because of their nonlinear and non-stationary characteristics. This necessitates the usage of time-frequency decomposition methods for analyzing the subtle changes in these signals that are often connected to an underlying phenomena. This paper presents a new approach to analyze the time-varying characteristics of such signals by employing a simple truncated Fourier series model, namely the band-limited multiple Fourier linear combiner (BMFLC). In contrast to the earlier designs, we first identified the sparsity imposed on the signal model in order to reformulate the model to a sparse linear regression model. The coefficients of the proposed model are then estimated by a convex optimization algorithm. The performance of the proposed method was analyzed with benchmark test signals. An energy ratio metric is employed to quantify the spectral performance and results show that the proposed method Sparse-BMFLC has high mean energy (0.9976) ratio and outperforms existing methods such as short-time Fourier transfrom (STFT), continuous Wavelet transform (CWT) and BMFLC Kalman Smoother. Furthermore, the proposed method provides an overall 6.22% in reconstruction error.

A diagnostic signal selection scheme for planetary gearbox vibration monitoring under non-stationary operational conditions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Feng, Ke; Wang, KeSheng; Zhang, Mian; Ni, Qing; Zuo, Ming J

2017-01-01

The planetary gearbox, due to its unique mechanical structures, is an important rotating machine for transmission systems. Its engineering applications are often in non-stationary operational conditions, such as helicopters, wind energy systems, etc. The unique physical structures and working conditions make the vibrations measured from planetary gearboxes exhibit a complex time-varying modulation and therefore yield complicated spectral structures. As a result, traditional signal processing methods, such as Fourier analysis, and the selection of characteristic fault frequencies for diagnosis face serious challenges. To overcome this drawback, this paper proposes a signal selection scheme for fault-emphasized diagnostics based upon two order tracking techniques. The basic procedures for the proposed scheme are as follows. (1) Computed order tracking is applied to reveal the order contents and identify the order(s) of interest. (2) Vold–Kalman filter order tracking is used to extract the order(s) of interest—these filtered order(s) constitute the so-called selected vibrations. (3) Time domain statistic indicators are applied to the selected vibrations for faulty information-emphasized diagnostics. The proposed scheme is explained and demonstrated in a signal simulation model and experimental studies and the method proves to be effective for planetary gearbox fault diagnosis. (paper)

A Non-Stationary 1981–2012 AVHRR NDVI3g Time Series

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jorge E. Pinzon

2014-07-01

Full Text Available The NDVI3g time series is an improved 8-km normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI data set produced from Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR instruments that extends from 1981 to the present. The AVHRR instruments have flown or are flying on fourteen polar-orbiting meteorological satellites operated by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA and are currently flying on two European Organization for the Exploitation of Meteorological Satellites (EUMETSAT polar-orbiting meteorological satellites, MetOp-A and MetOp-B. This long AVHRR record is comprised of data from two different sensors: the AVHRR/2 instrument that spans July 1981 to November 2000 and the AVHRR/3 instrument that continues these measurements from November 2000 to the present. The main difficulty in processing AVHRR NDVI data is to properly deal with limitations of the AVHRR instruments. Complicating among-instrument AVHRR inter-calibration of channels one and two is the dual gain introduced in late 2000 on the AVHRR/3 instruments for both these channels. We have processed NDVI data derived from the Sea-Viewing Wide Field-of-view Sensor (SeaWiFS from 1997 to 2010 to overcome among-instrument AVHRR calibration difficulties. We use Bayesian methods with high quality well-calibrated SeaWiFS NDVI data for deriving AVHRR NDVI calibration parameters. Evaluation of the uncertainties of our resulting NDVI values gives an error of ± 0.005 NDVI units for our 1981 to present data set that is independent of time within our AVHRR NDVI continuum and has resulted in a non-stationary climate data set.

A Non-Stationary 1981-2012 AVHRR NDVI(sub 3g) Time Series

Science.gov (United States)

Pinzon, Jorge E.; Tucker, Compton J.

2014-01-01

The NDVI(sub 3g) time series is an improved 8-km normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) data set produced from Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) instruments that extends from 1981 to the present. The AVHRR instruments have flown or are flying on fourteen polar-orbiting meteorological satellites operated by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and are currently flying on two European Organization for the Exploitation of Meteorological Satellites (EUMETSAT) polar-orbiting meteorological satellites, MetOp-A and MetOp-B. This long AVHRR record is comprised of data from two different sensors: the AVHRR/2 instrument that spans July 1981 to November 2000 and the AVHRR/3 instrument that continues these measurements from November 2000 to the present. The main difficulty in processing AVHRR NDVI data is to properly deal with limitations of the AVHRR instruments. Complicating among-instrument AVHRR inter-calibration of channels one and two is the dual gain introduced in late 2000 on the AVHRR/3 instruments for both these channels. We have processed NDVI data derived from the Sea-Viewing Wide Field-of-view Sensor (SeaWiFS) from 1997 to 2010 to overcome among-instrument AVHRR calibration difficulties. We use Bayesian methods with high quality well-calibrated SeaWiFS NDVI data for deriving AVHRR NDVI calibration parameters. Evaluation of the uncertainties of our resulting NDVI values gives an error of plus or minus 0.005 NDVI units for our 1981 to present data set that is independent of time within our AVHRR NDVI continuum and has resulted in a non-stationary climate data set.

Increasing sensitivity in the measurement of heart rate variability: the method of non-stationary RR time-frequency analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Melkonian, D; Korner, A; Meares, R; Bahramali, H

2012-10-01

A novel method of the time-frequency analysis of non-stationary heart rate variability (HRV) is developed which introduces the fragmentary spectrum as a measure that brings together the frequency content, timing and duration of HRV segments. The fragmentary spectrum is calculated by the similar basis function algorithm. This numerical tool of the time to frequency and frequency to time Fourier transformations accepts both uniform and non-uniform sampling intervals, and is applicable to signal segments of arbitrary length. Once the fragmentary spectrum is calculated, the inverse transform recovers the original signal and reveals accuracy of spectral estimates. Numerical experiments show that discontinuities at the boundaries of the succession of inter-beat intervals can cause unacceptable distortions of the spectral estimates. We have developed a measure that we call the "RR deltagram" as a form of the HRV data that minimises spectral errors. The analysis of the experimental HRV data from real-life and controlled breathing conditions suggests transient oscillatory components as functionally meaningful elements of highly complex and irregular patterns of HRV. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

The Methodology for Integral Assessment of the Impact of Renewable Energy on the Environment under Non-Stationary Economy

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Petrakov Iaroslav V.

2017-12-01

Full Text Available The need to reduce anthropogenic load, eliminate threats to environmental safety and provide ecologically oriented development are one of the main global challenges of our time. At the same time, the replacement of traditional energy sources with alternatives ones requires a quantitative assessment of direct and indirect environmental impacts. The article analyzes the dynamics and structure of pollution in Ukraine in terms of its sources and forms as well as their impact on the carbon productivity of the GDP. It is proposed to assess the impact of alternative energy on the environment under non-stationary economy using an integral indicator that takes into account a number of factors, in particular the change in the share of RES in the total primary energy supply, share of renewable energy production, the index of greenhouse gases by the energy sector, change in the quality of atmospheric air in the urban populated area, amount of investment in reducing CO2 emissions, carbon intensity of energy production, share of thermal generation capacity that meets the ecological requirements of the EU.

Analysis of thermal stress of the piston during non-stationary heat flow in a turbocharged Diesel engine

Science.gov (United States)

Gustof, P.; Hornik, A.

2016-09-01

In the paper, numeric calculations of thermal stresses of the piston in a turbocharged Diesel engine in the initial phase of its work were carried out based on experimental studies and the data resulting from them. The calculations were made using a geometrical model of the piston in a five-cylinder turbocharged Diesel engine with a capacity of about 2300 cm3, with a direct fuel injection to the combustion chamber and a power rating of 85 kW. In order to determine the thermal stress, application of own mathematical models of the heat flow in characteristic surfaces of the piston was required to show real processes occurring on the surface of the analysed component. The calculations were performed using a Geostar COSMOS/M program module. A three-dimensional geometric model of the piston was created in this program based on a real component, in order to enable the calculations and analysis of thermal stresses during non-stationary heat flow. Modelling of the thermal stresses of the piston for the engine speed n=4250 min-1 and engine load λ=1.69 was carried out.

WAITING TIME DISTRIBUTION OF SOLAR ENERGETIC PARTICLE EVENTS MODELED WITH A NON-STATIONARY POISSON PROCESS

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Li, C.; Su, W.; Fang, C.; Zhong, S. J.; Wang, L.

2014-01-01

We present a study of the waiting time distributions (WTDs) of solar energetic particle (SEP) events observed with the spacecraft WIND and GOES. The WTDs of both solar electron events (SEEs) and solar proton events (SPEs) display a power-law tail of ∼Δt –γ . The SEEs display a broken power-law WTD. The power-law index is γ 1 = 0.99 for the short waiting times (<70 hr) and γ 2 = 1.92 for large waiting times (>100 hr). The break of the WTD of SEEs is probably due to the modulation of the corotating interaction regions. The power-law index, γ ∼ 1.82, is derived for the WTD of the SPEs which is consistent with the WTD of type II radio bursts, indicating a close relationship between the shock wave and the production of energetic protons. The WTDs of SEP events can be modeled with a non-stationary Poisson process, which was proposed to understand the waiting time statistics of solar flares. We generalize the method and find that, if the SEP event rate λ = 1/Δt varies as the time distribution of event rate f(λ) = Aλ –α exp (– βλ), the time-dependent Poisson distribution can produce a power-law tail WTD of ∼Δt α –3 , where 0 ≤ α < 2

Generalized boundary conditions in an existence and uniqueness proof for the solution of the non-stationary electron Boltzmann equation by means of operator-semigroups

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bartolomaeus, G.; Wilhelm, J.

1983-01-01

Recently, based on the semigroup approach a new proof was presented of the existence of a unique solution of the non-stationary Boltzmann equation for the electron component of a collision dominated plasma. The proof underlies some restriction which should be overcome to extend the validity range to other problems of physical interest. One of the restrictions is the boundary condition applied. The choice of the boundary condition is essential for the proof because it determines the range of definition of the infinitesimal generator and thus the operator semigroup itself. The paper proves the existence of a unique solution for generalized boundary conditions, this solution takes non-negative values, which is necessary for a distribution function from the physical point of view. (author)

Bipolar mood cycles and lunar tidal cycles.

Science.gov (United States)

Wehr, T A

2018-04-01

In 17 patients with rapid cycling bipolar disorder, time-series analyses detected synchronies between mood cycles and three lunar cycles that modulate the amplitude of the moon's semi-diurnal gravimetric tides: the 14.8-day spring-neap cycle, the 13.7-day declination cycle and the 206-day cycle of perigee-syzygies ('supermoons'). The analyses also revealed shifts among 1:2, 1:3, 2:3 and other modes of coupling of mood cycles to the two bi-weekly lunar cycles. These shifts appear to be responses to the conflicting demands of the mood cycles' being entrained simultaneously to two different bi-weekly lunar cycles with slightly different periods. Measurements of circadian rhythms in body temperature suggest a biological mechanism through which transits of one of the moon's semi-diurnal gravimetric tides might have driven the patients' bipolar cycles, by periodically entraining the circadian pacemaker to its 24.84-h rhythm and altering the pacemaker's phase-relationship to sleep in a manner that is known to cause switches from depression to mania.

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African Journals Online (AJOL)

USER

2014-11-17

Nov 17, 2014 ... forecasting and smoothening technique that projects the future values of a series based entirely on its own inertia. ARIMA modeling takes into account trends, seasonality, cycles, errors and non-stationary aspects of a data set when making forecasts. It reduces ... robust, can cope with missing values, and.

The Krebs Uric Acid Cycle: A Forgotten Krebs Cycle.

Science.gov (United States)

Salway, Jack G

2018-05-25

Hans Kornberg wrote a paper entitled 'Krebs and his trinity of cycles' commenting that every school biology student knows of the Krebs cycle, but few know that Krebs discovered two other cycles. These are (i) the ornithine cycle (urea cycle), (ii) the citric acid cycle (tricarboxylic acid or TCA cycle), and (iii) the glyoxylate cycle that was described by Krebs and Kornberg. Ironically, Kornberg, codiscoverer of the 'glyoxylate cycle', overlooked a fourth Krebs cycle - (iv) the uric acid cycle. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

About influence of input rate random part of nonstationary queue system on statistical estimates of its macroscopic indicators

Science.gov (United States)

Korelin, Ivan A.; Porshnev, Sergey V.

2018-05-01

A model of the non-stationary queuing system (NQS) is described. The input of this model receives a flow of requests with input rate λ = λdet (t) + λrnd (t), where λdet (t) is a deterministic function depending on time; λrnd (t) is a random function. The parameters of functions λdet (t), λrnd (t) were identified on the basis of statistical information on visitor flows collected from various Russian football stadiums. The statistical modeling of NQS is carried out and the average statistical dependences are obtained: the length of the queue of requests waiting for service, the average wait time for the service, the number of visitors entered to the stadium on the time. It is shown that these dependencies can be characterized by the following parameters: the number of visitors who entered at the time of the match; time required to service all incoming visitors; the maximum value; the argument value when the studied dependence reaches its maximum value. The dependences of these parameters on the energy ratio of the deterministic and random component of the input rate are investigated.

An integrated fuzzy regression algorithm for energy consumption estimation with non-stationary data: A case study of Iran

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Azadeh, A; Seraj, O [Department of Industrial Engineering and Research Institute of Energy Management and Planning, Center of Excellence for Intelligent-Based Experimental Mechanics, College of Engineering, University of Tehran, P.O. Box 11365-4563 (Iran); Saberi, M [Department of Industrial Engineering, University of Tafresh (Iran); Institute for Digital Ecosystems and Business Intelligence, Curtin University of Technology, Perth (Australia)

2010-06-15

This study presents an integrated fuzzy regression and time series framework to estimate and predict electricity demand for seasonal and monthly changes in electricity consumption especially in developing countries such as China and Iran with non-stationary data. Furthermore, it is difficult to model uncertain behavior of energy consumption with only conventional fuzzy regression (FR) or time series and the integrated algorithm could be an ideal substitute for such cases. At First, preferred Time series model is selected from linear or nonlinear models. For this, after selecting preferred Auto Regression Moving Average (ARMA) model, Mcleod-Li test is applied to determine nonlinearity condition. When, nonlinearity condition is satisfied, the preferred nonlinear model is selected and defined as preferred time series model. At last, the preferred model from fuzzy regression and time series model is selected by the Granger-Newbold. Also, the impact of data preprocessing on the fuzzy regression performance is considered. Monthly electricity consumption of Iran from March 1994 to January 2005 is considered as the case of this study. The superiority of the proposed algorithm is shown by comparing its results with other intelligent tools such as Genetic Algorithm (GA) and Artificial Neural Network (ANN). (author)

The dynamic behaviour of a non-stationary elevator compensating rope system under harmonic and stochastic excitations

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kaczmarczyk, S [School of Applied Sciences, University of Northampton, St. George' s Avenue, Northampton NN2 6JD (United Kingdom); Iwankiewicz, R [Institute of Mechanics and Ocean Engineering, Hamburg University of Technology, Eissendorfer Strasse 42 D-21073, Hamburg (Germany); Terumichi, Y, E-mail: stefan.kaczmarczyk@northampton.ac.u [Faculty of Science and Technology, Sophia University, 7-1 KIOI-CHO, CHIYODAKU, Tokyo, 102-8554 Japan (Japan)

2009-08-01

Moving slender elastic elements such as ropes, cables and belts are pivotal components of vertical transportation systems such as traction elevators. Their lengths vary within the host building structure during the elevator operation which results in the change of the mass and stiffness characteristics of the system. The structure of modern high-rise buildings is flexible and when subjected to loads due to strong winds and earthquakes it vibrates at low frequencies. The inertial load induced by the building motion excites the flexible components of the elevator system. The compensating ropes due to their lower tension are particularly affected and undergo large dynamic deformations. The paper focuses on the presentation of the non-stationary model of a building-compensating rope system and on the analysis to predict its dynamic response. The excitation mechanism is represented by a harmonic process and the results of computer simulations to predict transient resonance response are presented. The analysis of the simulation results leads to recommendations concerning the selection of the weight of the compensation assembly to minimize the effects of an adverse dynamic response of the system. The scenario when the excitation is represented as a narrow-band stochastic process with the state vector governed by stochastic equations is then discussed and the stochastic differential equations governing the second-order statistical moments of the state vector are developed.

Nonstationary plasma-thermo-fluid dynamics and transition in processes of deep penetration laser beam-matter interaction

Science.gov (United States)

Golubev, Vladimir S.; Banishev, Alexander F.; Azharonok, V. V.; Zabelin, Alexandre M.

1994-09-01

A qualitative analysis of the role of some hydrodynamic flows and instabilities by the process of laser beam-metal sample deep penetration interaction is presented. The forces of vapor pressure, melt surface tension and thermocapillary forces can determined a number of oscillatory and nonstationary phenomena in keyhole and weld pool. Dynamics of keyhole formation in metal plates has been studied under laser beam pulse effect ((lambda) equals 1.06 micrometers ). Velocities of the keyhole bottom motion have been determined at 0.5 X 105 - 106 W/cm2 laser power densities. Oscillatory regime of plate break- down has been found out. Small-dimensional structures with d-(lambda) period was found on the frozen cavity walls, which, in our opinion, can contribute significantly to laser beam absorption. A new form of periodic structure on the frozen pattern being a helix-shaped modulation of the keyhole walls and bottom relief has been revealed. Temperature oscillations related to capillary oscillations in the melt layer were discovered in the cavity. Interaction of the CW CO2 laser beam and the matter by beam penetration into a moving metal sample has been studied. The pulsed and thermodynamic parameters of the surface plasma were investigated by optical and spectroscopic methods. The frequencies of plasma jets pulsations (in 10 - 105 Hz range) are related to possible melt surface instabilities of the keyhole.

Alternative ORC bottoming cycles FOR combined cycle power plants

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chacartegui, R.; Sanchez, D.; Munoz, J.M.; Sanchez, T.

2009-01-01

In this work, low temperature Organic Rankine Cycles are studied as bottoming cycle in medium and large scale combined cycle power plants. The analysis aims to show the interest of using these alternative cycles with high efficiency heavy duty gas turbines, for example recuperative gas turbines with lower gas turbine exhaust temperatures than in conventional combined cycle gas turbines. The following organic fluids have been considered: R113, R245, isobutene, toluene, cyclohexane and isopentane. Competitive results have been obtained for toluene and cyclohexane ORC combined cycles, with reasonably high global efficiencies. The paper is structured in four main parts. A review of combined cycle and ORC cycle technologies is presented, followed by a thermodynamic analysis of combined cycles with commercial gas turbines and ORC low temperature bottoming cycles. Then, a parametric optimization of an ORC combined cycle plant is performed in order to achieve a better integration between these two technologies. Finally, some economic considerations related to the use of ORC in combined cycles are discussed.

Cycling infrastructure for reducing cycling injuries in cyclists.

Science.gov (United States)

Mulvaney, Caroline A; Smith, Sherie; Watson, Michael C; Parkin, John; Coupland, Carol; Miller, Philip; Kendrick, Denise; McClintock, Hugh

2015-12-10

Cycling is an attractive form of transport. It is beneficial to the individual as a form of physical activity that may fit more readily into an individual's daily routine, such as for cycling to work and to the shops, than other physical activities such as visiting a gym. Cycling is also beneficial to the wider community and the environment as a result of fewer motorised journeys. Cyclists are seen as vulnerable road users who are frequently in close proximity to larger and faster motorised vehicles. Cycling infrastructure aims to make cycling both more convenient and safer for cyclists. This review is needed to guide transport planning. To:1. evaluate the effects of different types of cycling infrastructure on reducing cycling injuries in cyclists, by type of infrastructure;2. evaluate the effects of cycling infrastructure on reducing the severity of cycling injuries in cyclists;3. evaluate the effects of cycling infrastructure on reducing cycling injuries in cyclists with respect to age, sex and social group. We ran the most recent search on 2nd March 2015. We searched the Cochrane Injuries Group Specialised Register, CENTRAL (The Cochrane Library), MEDLINE (OvidSP), Embase Classic + Embase(OvidSP), PubMed and 10 other databases. We searched websites, handsearched conference proceedings, screened reference lists of included studies and previously published reviews and contacted relevant organisations. We included randomised controlled trials, cluster randomised controlled trials, controlled before-after studies, and interrupted time series studies which evaluated the effect of cycling infrastructure (such as cycle lanes, tracks or paths, speed management, roundabout design) on cyclist injury or collision rates. Studies had to include a comparator, that is, either no infrastructure or a different type of infrastructure. We excluded studies that assessed collisions that occurred as a result of competitive cycling. Two review authors examined the titles and

Invariant and partially-invariant solutions of the equations describing a non-stationary and isentropic flow for an ideal and compressible fluid in (3 + 1) dimensions

Science.gov (United States)

Grundland, A. M.; Lalague, L.

1996-04-01

This paper presents a new method of constructing, certain classes of solutions of a system of partial differential equations (PDEs) describing the non-stationary and isentropic flow for an ideal compressible fluid. A generalization of the symmetry reduction method to the case of partially-invariant solutions (PISs) has been formulated. We present a new algorithm for constructing PISs and discuss in detail the necessary conditions for the existence of non-reducible PISs. All these solutions have the defect structure 0305-4470/29/8/019/img1 and are computed from four-dimensional symmetric subalgebras. These theoretical considerations are illustrated by several examples. Finally, some new classes of invariant solutions obtained by the symmetry reduction method are included. These solutions represent central, conical, rational, spherical, cylindrical and non-scattering double waves.

Testing for common cycles in non-stationary VARs with varied frecquency data

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Götz, T.B.; Hecq, A.W.; Urbain, J.R.Y.J.

2013-01-01

This paper proposes a new way for detecting the presence of common cyclical features when several time series are observed/sampled at different frequencies, hence generalizing the common-frequency approach introduced by Engle and Kozicki (1993) and Vahid and Engle (1993). We start with the

Numerical Estimation Method for the NonStationary Thrust of Pulsejet Ejector Nozzle

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

A. Yu. Mikushkin

2016-01-01

Full Text Available The article considers a calculation method for the non-stationary thrust of pulsejet ejector nozzle that is based on detonation combustion of gaseous fuel.To determine initial distributions of the thermodynamic parameters inside the detonation tube was carried out a rapid analysis based on x-t-diagrams of motion of glowing combustion products. For this purpose, the section with transparent walls was connected to the outlet of the tube to register the movement of products of combustion.Based on obtained images and gas-dynamic and thermodynamic equations the velocity distribution of the combustion products, its density, pressure and temperature required for numerical analysis were calculated. The world literature presents data on distribution of parameters, however they are given only for direct initiation of detonation at the closed end and for chemically "frozen" gas composition. The article presents the interpolation methods of parameters measured at the temperatures of 2500-2800K.Estimation of the thermodynamic parameters is based on the Chapman-Jouguet theory that the speed of the combustion products directly behind the detonation wave front with respect to the wave front is equal to the speed of sound of these products at a given point. The method of minimizing enthalpy of the final thermodynamic state was used to calculate the equilibrium parameters. Thus, a software package «IVTANTHERMO», which is a database of thermodynamic properties of many individual substances in a wide temperature range, was used.An integral thrust was numerically calculated according to the ejector nozzle surface. We solved the Navier-Stokes equations using the finite-difference Roe scheme of the second order. The combustion products were considered both as an inert mixture with "frozen" composition and as a mixture in chemical equilibrium with the changing temperature. The comparison with experimental results was made.The above method can be used for rapid

Segmentation algorithm for non-stationary compound Poisson processes. With an application to inventory time series of market members in a financial market

Science.gov (United States)

Tóth, B.; Lillo, F.; Farmer, J. D.

2010-11-01

We introduce an algorithm for the segmentation of a class of regime switching processes. The segmentation algorithm is a non parametric statistical method able to identify the regimes (patches) of a time series. The process is composed of consecutive patches of variable length. In each patch the process is described by a stationary compound Poisson process, i.e. a Poisson process where each count is associated with a fluctuating signal. The parameters of the process are different in each patch and therefore the time series is non-stationary. Our method is a generalization of the algorithm introduced by Bernaola-Galván, et al. [Phys. Rev. Lett. 87, 168105 (2001)]. We show that the new algorithm outperforms the original one for regime switching models of compound Poisson processes. As an application we use the algorithm to segment the time series of the inventory of market members of the London Stock Exchange and we observe that our method finds almost three times more patches than the original one.

Optimum gas turbine cycle for combined cycle power plant

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Polyzakis, A.L.; Koroneos, C.; Xydis, G.

2008-01-01

The gas turbine based power plant is characterized by its relatively low capital cost compared with the steam power plant. It has environmental advantages and short construction lead time. However, conventional industrial engines have lower efficiencies, especially at part load. One of the technologies adopted nowadays for efficiency improvement is the 'combined cycle'. The combined cycle technology is now well established and offers superior efficiency to any of the competing gas turbine based systems that are likely to be available in the medium term for large scale power generation applications. This paper has as objective the optimization of a combined cycle power plant describing and comparing four different gas turbine cycles: simple cycle, intercooled cycle, reheated cycle and intercooled and reheated cycle. The proposed combined cycle plant would produce 300 MW of power (200 MW from the gas turbine and 100 MW from the steam turbine). The results showed that the reheated gas turbine is the most desirable overall, mainly because of its high turbine exhaust gas temperature and resulting high thermal efficiency of the bottoming steam cycle. The optimal gas turbine (GT) cycle will lead to a more efficient combined cycle power plant (CCPP), and this will result in great savings. The initial approach adopted is to investigate independently the four theoretically possible configurations of the gas plant. On the basis of combining these with a single pressure Rankine cycle, the optimum gas scheme is found. Once the gas turbine is selected, the next step is to investigate the impact of the steam cycle design and parameters on the overall performance of the plant, in order to choose the combined cycle offering the best fit with the objectives of the work as depicted above. Each alterative cycle was studied, aiming to find the best option from the standpoint of overall efficiency, installation and operational costs, maintainability and reliability for a combined power

Seasonal streamflow forecast with machine learning and teleconnection indices in the context non-stationary climate

Science.gov (United States)

Haguma, D.; Leconte, R.

2017-12-01

Spatial and temporal water resources variability are associated with large-scale pressure and circulation anomalies known as teleconnections that influence the pattern of the atmospheric circulation. Teleconnection indices have been used successfully to forecast streamflow in short term. However, in some watersheds, classical methods cannot establish relationships between seasonal streamflow and teleconnection indices because of weak correlation. In this study, machine learning algorithms have been applied for seasonal streamflow forecast using teleconnection indices. Machine learning offers an alternative to classical methods to address the non-linear relationship between streamflow and teleconnection indices the context non-stationary climate. Two machine learning algorithms, random forest (RF) and support vector machine (SVM), with teleconnection indices associated with North American climatology, have been used to forecast inflows for one and two leading seasons for the Romaine River and Manicouagan River watersheds, located in Quebec, Canada. The indices are Pacific-North America (PNA), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Arctic Oscillation (AO) and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). The results showed that the machine learning algorithms have an important predictive power for seasonal streamflow for one and two leading seasons. The RF performed better for training and SVM generally have better results with high predictive capability for testing. The RF which is an ensemble method, allowed to assess the uncertainty of the forecast. The integration of teleconnection indices responds to the seasonal forecast of streamflow in the conditions of the non-stationarity the climate, although the teleconnection indices have a weak correlation with streamflow.

Cycles and Common Cycles in Property and Related Sectors

OpenAIRE

Peijie Wang

2003-01-01

This paper examines cycles and common cycles in the property market and the economy. While focusing on common cycles, the study also incorporates common trends in the meantime, so it covers the whole spectrum of dynamic analysis. It has been found that property shares common cycles, particularly with those sectors that are the user markets of property. The mechanisms of common cycles and the relative magnitudes of cycles of the sectors related to property are discussed to shed light on proper...

HCl removal using cycled carbide slag from calcium looping cycles

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Xie, Xin; Li, Yingjie; Wang, Wenjing; Shi, Lei

2014-01-01

Highlights: • Cycled carbide slag from calcium looping cycles is used to remove HCl. • The optimum temperature for HCl removal of cycled carbide slag is 700 °C. • The presence of CO 2 restrains HCl removal of cycled carbide slag. • CO 2 capture conditions have important effects on HCl removal of cycled carbide slag. • HCl removal capacity of carbide slag drops with cycle number rising from 1 to 50. - Abstract: The carbide slag is an industrial waste from chlor-alkali plants, which can be used to capture CO 2 in the calcium looping cycles, i.e. carbonation/calcination cycles. In this work, the cycled carbide slag from the calcium looping cycles for CO 2 capture was proposed to remove HCl in the flue gas from the biomass-fired and RDFs-fired boilers. The effects of chlorination temperature, HCl concentration, particle size, presence of CO 2 , presence of O 2 , cycle number and CO 2 capture conditions in calcium looping cycles on the HCl removal behavior of the carbide slag experienced carbonation/calcination cycles were investigated in a triple fixed-bed reactor. The chlorination product of the cycled carbide slag from the calcium looping after absorbing HCl is not CaCl 2 but CaClOH. The optimum temperature for HCl removal of the cycled carbide slag from the carbonation/calcination cycles is 700 °C. The chlorination conversion of the cycled carbide slag increases with increasing the HCl concentration. The cycled carbide slag with larger particle size exhibits a lower chlorination conversion. The presence of CO 2 decreases the chlorination conversions of the cycled carbide slag and the presence of O 2 has a trifling impact. The chlorination conversion of the carbide slag experienced 1 carbonation/calcination cycle is higher than that of the uncycled calcined sorbent. As the number of carbonation/calcination cycles increases from 1 to 50, the chlorination conversion of carbide slag drops gradually. The high calcination temperature and high CO 2

Real-time, adaptive machine learning for non-stationary, near chaotic gasoline engine combustion time series.

Science.gov (United States)

Vaughan, Adam; Bohac, Stanislav V

2015-10-01

Fuel efficient Homogeneous Charge Compression Ignition (HCCI) engine combustion timing predictions must contend with non-linear chemistry, non-linear physics, period doubling bifurcation(s), turbulent mixing, model parameters that can drift day-to-day, and air-fuel mixture state information that cannot typically be resolved on a cycle-to-cycle basis, especially during transients. In previous work, an abstract cycle-to-cycle mapping function coupled with ϵ-Support Vector Regression was shown to predict experimentally observed cycle-to-cycle combustion timing over a wide range of engine conditions, despite some of the aforementioned difficulties. The main limitation of the previous approach was that a partially acasual randomly sampled training dataset was used to train proof of concept offline predictions. The objective of this paper is to address this limitation by proposing a new online adaptive Extreme Learning Machine (ELM) extension named Weighted Ring-ELM. This extension enables fully causal combustion timing predictions at randomly chosen engine set points, and is shown to achieve results that are as good as or better than the previous offline method. The broader objective of this approach is to enable a new class of real-time model predictive control strategies for high variability HCCI and, ultimately, to bring HCCI's low engine-out NOx and reduced CO2 emissions to production engines. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Experimental study on high cycle thermal fatigue in T-junction. Effect of local flow velocity on transfer of temperature fluctuation from fluid to structure

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kimura, Nobuyuki; Ono, Ayako; Miyakoshi, Hiroyuki; Kamide, Hideki

2009-01-01

A quantitative evaluation on high cycle thermal fatigue due to temperature fluctuation in fluid is of importance for structural integrity in the reactor. It is necessary for the quantitative evaluation to investigate occurrence and propagation processes of temperature fluctuation, e.g., decay of fluctuation intensity near structures and transfer of temperature fluctuation from fluid to structures. The JSME published a guideline for evaluation of high-cycle thermal fatigue of a pipe as the JSME guideline in 2003. This JSME standard covers T-pipe junction used in LWRs operated in Japan. In the guideline, the effective heat transfer coefficients were obtained from temperature fluctuations in fluid and structure in experiments. In the previous studies, the effective heat transfer coefficients were 2 - 10 times larger than the heat transfer coefficients under steady state conditions in a straight tube. In this study, a water experiment of T-junction was performed to evaluate the transfer characteristics of temperature fluctuation from fluid to structure. In the experiment, temperatures in fluid and structure were measured simultaneously at 20 positions to obtain spatial distributions of the effective heat transfer coefficient. In addition, temperatures in structure and local velocities in fluid were measured simultaneously to evaluate the correlation between the temperature and velocity under the non-stationary fields. The large heat transfer coefficients were registered at the region where the local velocity was high. Furthermore it was found that the heat transfer coefficients were correlated with the time-averaged turbulent heat flux near the pipe wall. (author)

Active visual search in non-stationary scenes: coping with temporal variability and uncertainty

Science.gov (United States)

Ušćumlić, Marija; Blankertz, Benjamin

2016-02-01

Objective. State-of-the-art experiments for studying neural processes underlying visual cognition often constrain sensory inputs (e.g., static images) and our behavior (e.g., fixed eye-gaze, long eye fixations), isolating or simplifying the interaction of neural processes. Motivated by the non-stationarity of our natural visual environment, we investigated the electroencephalography (EEG) correlates of visual recognition while participants overtly performed visual search in non-stationary scenes. We hypothesized that visual effects (such as those typically used in human-computer interfaces) may increase temporal uncertainty (with reference to fixation onset) of cognition-related EEG activity in an active search task and therefore require novel techniques for single-trial detection. Approach. We addressed fixation-related EEG activity in an active search task with respect to stimulus-appearance styles and dynamics. Alongside popping-up stimuli, our experimental study embraces two composite appearance styles based on fading-in, enlarging, and motion effects. Additionally, we explored whether the knowledge obtained in the pop-up experimental setting can be exploited to boost the EEG-based intention-decoding performance when facing transitional changes of visual content. Main results. The results confirmed our initial hypothesis that the dynamic of visual content can increase temporal uncertainty of the cognition-related EEG activity in active search with respect to fixation onset. This temporal uncertainty challenges the pivotal aim to keep the decoding performance constant irrespective of visual effects. Importantly, the proposed approach for EEG decoding based on knowledge transfer between the different experimental settings gave a promising performance. Significance. Our study demonstrates that the non-stationarity of visual scenes is an important factor in the evolution of cognitive processes, as well as in the dynamic of ocular behavior (i.e., dwell time and

Comparison between Hilbert-Huang transform and scalogram methods on non-stationary biomedical signals: application to laser Doppler flowmetry recordings

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Roulier, Remy; Humeau, Anne; Flatley, Thomas P; Abraham, Pierre

2005-01-01

A significant transient increase in laser Doppler flowmetry (LDF) signals is observed in response to a local and progressive cutaneous pressure application on healthy subjects. This reflex may be impaired in diabetic patients. The work presents a comparison between two signal processing methods that provide a clarification of this phenomenon. Analyses by the scalogram and the Hilbert-Huang transform (HHT) of LDF signals recorded at rest and during a local and progressive cutaneous pressure application are performed on healthy and type 1 diabetic subjects. Three frequency bands, corresponding to myogenic, neurogenic and endothelial related metabolic activities, are studied at different time intervals in order to take into account the dynamics of the phenomenon. The results show that both the scalogram and the HHT methods lead to the same conclusions concerning the comparisons of the myogenic, neurogenic and endothelial related metabolic activities-during the progressive pressure and at rest-in healthy and diabetic subjects. However, the HHT shows more details that may be obscured by the scalogram. Indeed, the non-locally adaptative limitations of the scalogram can remove some definition from the data. These results may improve knowledge on the above-mentioned reflex as well as on non-stationary biomedical signal processing methods

Non-stationary signal analysis based on general parameterized time-frequency transform and its application in the feature extraction of a rotary machine

Science.gov (United States)

Zhou, Peng; Peng, Zhike; Chen, Shiqian; Yang, Yang; Zhang, Wenming

2018-06-01

With the development of large rotary machines for faster and more integrated performance, the condition monitoring and fault diagnosis for them are becoming more challenging. Since the time-frequency (TF) pattern of the vibration signal from the rotary machine often contains condition information and fault feature, the methods based on TF analysis have been widely-used to solve these two problems in the industrial community. This article introduces an effective non-stationary signal analysis method based on the general parameterized time-frequency transform (GPTFT). The GPTFT is achieved by inserting a rotation operator and a shift operator in the short-time Fourier transform. This method can produce a high-concentrated TF pattern with a general kernel. A multi-component instantaneous frequency (IF) extraction method is proposed based on it. The estimation for the IF of every component is accomplished by defining a spectrum concentration index (SCI). Moreover, such an IF estimation process is iteratively operated until all the components are extracted. The tests on three simulation examples and a real vibration signal demonstrate the effectiveness and superiority of our method.

ENSO's non-stationary and non-Gaussian character: the role of climate shifts

Science.gov (United States)

Boucharel, J.; Dewitte, B.; Garel, B.; Du Penhoat, Y.

2009-07-01

El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the dominant mode of climate variability in the Pacific, having socio-economic impacts on surrounding regions. ENSO exhibits significant modulation on decadal to inter-decadal time scales which is related to changes in its characteristics (onset, amplitude, frequency, propagation, and predictability). Some of these characteristics tend to be overlooked in ENSO studies, such as its asymmetry (the number and amplitude of warm and cold events are not equal) and the deviation of its statistics from those of the Gaussian distribution. These properties could be related to the ability of the current generation of coupled models to predict ENSO and its modulation. Here, ENSO's non-Gaussian nature and asymmetry are diagnosed from in situ data and a variety of models (from intermediate complexity models to full-physics coupled general circulation models (CGCMs)) using robust statistical tools initially designed for financial mathematics studies. In particular α-stable laws are used as theoretical background material to measure (and quantify) the non-Gaussian character of ENSO time series and to estimate the skill of ``naïve'' statistical models in producing deviation from Gaussian laws and asymmetry. The former are based on non-stationary processes dominated by abrupt changes in mean state and empirical variance. It is shown that the α-stable character of ENSO may result from the presence of climate shifts in the time series. Also, cool (warm) periods are associated with ENSO statistics having a stronger (weaker) tendency towards Gaussianity and lower (greater) asymmetry. This supports the hypothesis of ENSO being rectified by changes in mean state through nonlinear processes. The relationship between changes in mean state and nonlinearity (skewness) is further investigated both in the Zebiak and Cane (1987)'s model and the models of the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change (IPCC). Whereas there is a clear relationship in all

Combined risk assessment of nonstationary monthly water quality based on Markov chain and time-varying copula.

Science.gov (United States)

Shi, Wei; Xia, Jun

2017-02-01

Water quality risk management is a global hot research linkage with the sustainable water resource development. Ammonium nitrogen (NH 3 -N) and permanganate index (COD Mn ) as the focus indicators in Huai River Basin, are selected to reveal their joint transition laws based on Markov theory. The time-varying moments model with either time or land cover index as explanatory variables is applied to build the time-varying marginal distributions of water quality time series. Time-varying copula model, which takes the non-stationarity in the marginal distribution and/or the time variation in dependence structure between water quality series into consideration, is constructed to describe a bivariate frequency analysis for NH 3 -N and COD Mn series at the same monitoring gauge. The larger first-order Markov joint transition probability indicates water quality state Class V w , Class IV and Class III will occur easily in the water body of Bengbu Sluice. Both marginal distribution and copula models are nonstationary, and the explanatory variable time yields better performance than land cover index in describing the non-stationarities in the marginal distributions. In modelling the dependence structure changes, time-varying copula has a better fitting performance than the copula with the constant or the time-trend dependence parameter. The largest synchronous encounter risk probability of NH 3 -N and COD Mn simultaneously reaching Class V is 50.61%, while the asynchronous encounter risk probability is largest when NH 3 -N and COD Mn is inferior to class V and class IV water quality standards, respectively.

Will Solar Cycles 25 and 26 Be Weaker than Cycle 24?

Science.gov (United States)

Javaraiah, J.

2017-11-01

The study of variations in solar activity is important for understanding the underlying mechanism of solar activity and for predicting the level of activity in view of the activity impact on space weather and global climate. Here we have used the amplitudes (the peak values of the 13-month smoothed international sunspot number) of Solar Cycles 1 - 24 to predict the relative amplitudes of the solar cycles during the rising phase of the upcoming Gleissberg cycle. We fitted a cosine function to the amplitudes and times of the solar cycles after subtracting a linear fit of the amplitudes. The best cosine fit shows overall properties (periods, maxima, minima, etc.) of Gleissberg cycles, but with large uncertainties. We obtain a pattern of the rising phase of the upcoming Gleissberg cycle, but there is considerable ambiguity. Using the epochs of violations of the Gnevyshev-Ohl rule (G-O rule) and the `tentative inverse G-O rule' of solar cycles during the period 1610 - 2015, and also using the epochs where the orbital angular momentum of the Sun is steeply decreased during the period 1600 - 2099, we infer that Solar Cycle 25 will be weaker than Cycle 24. Cycles 25 and 26 will have almost same strength, and their epochs are at the minimum between the current and upcoming Gleissberg cycles. In addition, Cycle 27 is expected to be stronger than Cycle 26 and weaker than Cycle 28, and Cycle 29 is expected to be stronger than both Cycles 28 and 30. The maximum of Cycle 29 is expected to represent the next Gleissberg maximum. Our analysis also suggests a much lower value (30 - 40) for the maximum amplitude of the upcoming Cycle 25.

Culture in cycles: considering H.T. Odum's 'information cycle'

Science.gov (United States)

Abel, Thomas

2014-01-01

'Culture' remains a conundrum in anthropology. When recast in the mold of 'information cycles,' culture is transformed. New fault lines appear. Information is splintered into parallel or nested forms. Dynamics becomes cycling. Energy is essential. And culture has function in a directional universe. The 'information cycle' is the crowning component of H.T. Odum's theory of general systems. What follows is an application of the information cycle to the cultural domains of discourse, social media, ritual, education, journalism, technology, academia, and law, which were never attempted by Odum. In information cycles, cultural information is perpetuated - maintained against Second Law depreciation. Conclusions are that culture is in fact a nested hierarchy of cultural forms. Each scale of information production is semi-autonomous, with its own evolutionary dynamics of production and selection in an information cycle. Simultaneously, each information cycle is channeled or entrained by its larger scale of information and ultimately human-ecosystem structuring.

Failure prognostics by support vector regression of time series data under stationary/nonstationary environmental and operational conditions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Liu, Jie

2015-01-01

This Ph. D. work is motivated by the possibility of monitoring the conditions of components of energy systems for their extended and safe use, under proper practice of operation and adequate policies of maintenance. The aim is to develop a Support Vector Regression (SVR)-based framework for predicting time series data under stationary/nonstationary environmental and operational conditions. Single SVR and SVR-based ensemble approaches are developed to tackle the prediction problem based on both small and large datasets. Strategies are proposed for adaptively updating the single SVR and SVR-based ensemble models in the existence of pattern drifts. Comparisons with other online learning approaches for kernel-based modelling are provided with reference to time series data from a critical component in Nuclear Power Plants (NPPs) provided by Electricite de France (EDF). The results show that the proposed approaches achieve comparable prediction results, considering the Mean Squared Error (MSE) and Mean Relative Error (MRE), in much less computation time. Furthermore, by analyzing the geometrical meaning of the Feature Vector Selection (FVS) method proposed in the literature, a novel geometrically interpretable kernel method, named Reduced Rank Kernel Ridge Regression-II (RRKRR-II), is proposed to describe the linear relations between a predicted value and the predicted values of the Feature Vectors (FVs) selected by FVS. Comparisons with several kernel methods on a number of public datasets prove the good prediction accuracy and the easy-of-tuning of the hyper-parameters of RRKRR-II. (author)

Proliferation in cycle

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Piao Yunsong [College of Physical Sciences, Graduate School of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049 (China)], E-mail: yspiao@gucas.ac.cn

2009-06-15

In the contracting phase with w{approx_equal}0, the scale invariant spectrum of curvature perturbation is given by the increasing mode of metric perturbation. In this Letter, it is found that if the contracting phase with w{approx_equal}0 is included in each cycle of a cycle universe, since the metric perturbation is amplified on super horizon scale cycle by cycle, after each cycle the universe will be inevitably separated into many parts independent of one another, each of which corresponds to a new universe and evolves up to next cycle, and then is separated again. In this sense, a cyclic multiverse scenario is actually presented, in which the universe proliferates cycle by cycle. We estimate the number of new universes proliferated in each cycle, and discuss the implications of this result.

Proliferation in cycle

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Piao Yunsong

2009-01-01

In the contracting phase with w≅0, the scale invariant spectrum of curvature perturbation is given by the increasing mode of metric perturbation. In this Letter, it is found that if the contracting phase with w≅0 is included in each cycle of a cycle universe, since the metric perturbation is amplified on super horizon scale cycle by cycle, after each cycle the universe will be inevitably separated into many parts independent of one another, each of which corresponds to a new universe and evolves up to next cycle, and then is separated again. In this sense, a cyclic multiverse scenario is actually presented, in which the universe proliferates cycle by cycle. We estimate the number of new universes proliferated in each cycle, and discuss the implications of this result.

Your Menstrual Cycle

Science.gov (United States)

... your menstrual cycle What happens during your menstrual cycle The menstrual cycle includes not just your period, but the rise ... that take place over the weeks in your cycle. Want to know what happens on each day ...

Fuel cycle cost uncertainty from nuclear fuel cycle comparison

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Li, J.; McNelis, D.; Yim, M.S.

2013-01-01

This paper examined the uncertainty in fuel cycle cost (FCC) calculation by considering both model and parameter uncertainty. Four different fuel cycle options were compared in the analysis including the once-through cycle (OT), the DUPIC cycle, the MOX cycle and a closed fuel cycle with fast reactors (FR). The model uncertainty was addressed by using three different FCC modeling approaches with and without the time value of money consideration. The relative ratios of FCC in comparison to OT did not change much by using different modeling approaches. This observation was consistent with the results of the sensitivity study for the discount rate. Two different sets of data with uncertainty range of unit costs were used to address the parameter uncertainty of the FCC calculation. The sensitivity study showed that the dominating contributor to the total variance of FCC is the uranium price. In general, the FCC of OT was found to be the lowest followed by FR, MOX, and DUPIC. But depending on the uranium price, the FR cycle was found to have lower FCC over OT. The reprocessing cost was also found to have a major impact on FCC

DETECTING ALIEN LIMIT CYCLES NEAR A HAMILTONIAN 2-SADDLE CYCLE

OpenAIRE

LUCA, Stijn; DUMORTIER, Freddy; Caubergh, M.; Roussarie, R.

2009-01-01

This paper aims at providing and example of a cubic Hamiltonian 2-saddle cycle that after bifurcation can give rise to an alien limit cycle; this is a limit cycle that is not controlled by a zero of the related Abelian integral. To guarantee the existence of an alien limit cycle one can verify generic conditions on the Abelian integral and on the transition map associated to the connections of the 2-saddle cycle. In this paper, a general method is developed to compute the first and second der...

Proposal of a nuclear cycle research and development plan in Tokai works. The roadmap from LWR cycle to FBR cycle

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nakamura, Hirofumi; Abe, Tomoyuki; Kashimura, Takuo; Nagai, Toshihisa; Maeda, Seichiro; Yamaguchi, Toshiya; Kuroki, Ryoichiro

2003-07-01

The Generation-II Project Task Force Team has investigated a research and development plan of a future nuclear fuel cycle in Tokai works for about three months from December 19, 2002. First we have discussed about the present condition of Japanese nuclear fuel cycle and have recognized it as the following. The relation of the technology between the LWR-cycle and the FBR-cycle is not clear. MOX Fuel Use in Light Water Reactors is important to establish technology of the FBR fuel cycle. Radioactive waste disposal issue is urgent. Next we have proposed the three basic policies on R and D plan of nuclear fuel cycle in consideration of the F.S. on FBR-cycle. Establishment and advancement of 'the tough nuclear fuel cycle'. Early establishment of the FBR cycle technology to be able to supply energy stably for long-term. Establishment of the radioactive waste treatment and disposal technology, and optimization of nuclear fuel cycle technology from the viewpoint of radioactive waste. And we have proposed the Japanese technical holder system to integrate all LWR and FBR cycle technology. (author)

Simulation of Cycle-to-Cycle Variation in Dual-Fuel Engines

KAUST Repository

Jaasim, Mohammed

2017-03-13

Standard practices of internal combustion (IC) engine experiments are to conduct the measurements of quantities averaged over a large number of cycles. Depending on the operating conditions, the cycle-to-cycle variation (CCV) of quantities, such as the indicated mean effective pressure (IMEP) are observed at different levels. Accurate prediction of CCV in IC engines is an important but challenging task. Computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulations using high performance computing (HPC) can be used effectively to visualize such 3D spatial distributions. In the present study, a dual fuel large engine is considered, with natural gas injected into the manifold accompanied with direct injection of diesel pilot fuel to trigger ignition. Multiple engine cycles in 3D are simulated in series as in the experiments to investigate the potential of HPC based high fidelity simulations to accurately capture the cycle to cycle variation in dual fuel engines. Open cycle simulations are conducted to predict the combined effect of the stratification of fuel-air mixture, temperature and turbulence on the CCV of pressure. The predicted coefficient of variation (COV) of pressure compared to the results from closed cycle simulations and the experiments.

Assessing Nonstationary Spatial Patterns of Extreme Droughts from Long-Term High-Resolution Observational Dataset on a Semiarid Basin (Spain

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sandra G. Garcia Galiano

2015-10-01

Full Text Available In basins of South-eastern Spain; such as the semiarid Segura River Basin (SRB, a strong decrease in runoff from the end of the 1970s has been observed. However, in the SRB the decreasing trend is not only related with climate variability and change, also with intensive reforestation aimed at halting desertification and erosion, whichever the reason is, the default assumption of stationarity in water resources systems cannot be guaranteed. Therefore there is an important need for improvement in the ability of monitoring and predicting the impacts associated with the change of hydrologic regimes. It is thus necessary to apply non-stationary probabilistic models, which are able to reproduce probability density functions whose parameters vary with time. From a high-resolution daily gridded rainfall dataset of more than five decades (1950−2007, the spatial distribution of lengths of maximum dry spells for several thresholds are assessed, applying Generalized Additive Models for Location Scale and Shape (GAMLSS models at the grid site. Results reveal an intensification of extreme drought events in some headbasins of the SRB important for water supply. The identification of spatial patterns of drought hazards at basin scale, associated with return periods; contribute to designing strategies of drought contingency preparedness and recovery operations, which are the leading edge of adaptation strategies.

On the bi-dimensional variational decomposition applied to nonstationary vibration signals for rolling bearing crack detection in coal cutters

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jiang, Yu; Li, Zhixiong; Zhang, Chao; Peng, Z; Hu, Chao

2016-01-01

This work aims to detect rolling bearing cracks using a variational approach. An original method that appropriately incorporates bi-dimensional variational mode decomposition (BVMD) into discriminant diffusion maps (DDM) is proposed to analyze the nonstationary vibration signals recorded from the cracked rolling bearings in coal cutters. The advantage of this variational decomposition based diffusion map (VDDM) method in comparison to the current DDM is that the intrinsic vibration mode of the crack can be filtered into a limited bandwidth in the frequency domain with an estimated central frequency, thus discarding the interference signal components in the vibration signals and significantly improving the crack detection performance. In addition, the VDDM is able to simultaneously process two-channel sensor signals to reduce information leakage. Experimental validation using rolling bearing crack vibration signals demonstrates that the VDDM separated the raw signals into four intrinsic modes, including one roller vibration mode, one roller cage vibration mode, one inner race vibration mode, and one outer race vibration mode. Hence, reliable fault features were extracted from the outer race vibration mode, and satisfactory crack identification performance was achieved. The comparison between the proposed VDDM and existing approaches indicated that the VDDM method was more efficient and reliable for crack detection in coal cutter rolling bearings. As an effective catalyst for rolling bearing crack detection, this newly proposed method is useful for practical applications. (paper)

High Efficiency of Mixed Th-U Fuel Utilisation in Innovative Nuclear Burning Wave Reactor

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fomin, Sergii; Fomin, A.; Mel’nik, Yu.; Pilipenko, V.; Shul’ga, N.

2013-01-01

The presentation provides information about nuclear fuel reproduction and the U-Pu fuel cycle; the history of the Breed and Burn concept and the traveling wave concept; the non-stationary theory of nuclear burning wave; the Nuclear Burning Wave in Fast Reactor with U-Pu Fuel; nuclear burning wave in 5m length cylindrical FR for different reactor radius R and about the Reactor Power Control by Reflector Efficiency

Simulation of Cycle-to-Cycle Variation in Dual-Fuel Engines

KAUST Repository

Jaasim, Mohammed; Pasunurthi, Shyamsundar; Jupudi, Ravichandra S.; Gubba, Sreenivasa Rao; Primus, Roy; Klingbeil, Adam; Wijeyakulasuriya, Sameera; Im, Hong G.

2017-01-01

Standard practices of internal combustion (IC) engine experiments are to conduct the measurements of quantities averaged over a large number of cycles. Depending on the operating conditions, the cycle-to-cycle variation (CCV) of quantities

Life-cycle cost analysis of adsorption cycles for desalination

KAUST Repository

Thu, Kyaw

2010-08-01

This paper presents the thermo-economic analysis of the adsorption desalination (AD) cycle that is driven by low-temperature waste heat from exhaust of industrial processes or renewable sources. The AD cycle uses an adsorbent such as the silica gel to desalt the sea or brackish water. Based on an experimental prototype AD plant, the life-cycle cost analysis of AD plants of assorted water production capacities has been simulated and these predictions are translated into unit cost of water production. Our results show that the specific energy consumption of the AD cycle is 1.38 kWh/m3 which is the lowest ever reported. For a plant capacity of 1000 m3/d, the AD cycle offers a unit cost of $0.457/m3 as compared to more than $0.9 for the average RO plants. Besides being cost-effective, the AD cycle is also environment-friendly as it emits less CO2 emission per m3 generated, typically 85% less, by comparison to an RO process. © 2010 Desalination Publications.

Non-stationary random vibration analysis of a 3D train-bridge system using the probability density evolution method

Science.gov (United States)

Yu, Zhi-wu; Mao, Jian-feng; Guo, Feng-qi; Guo, Wei

2016-03-01

Rail irregularity is one of the main sources causing train-bridge random vibration. A new random vibration theory for the coupled train-bridge systems is proposed in this paper. First, number theory method (NTM) with 2N-dimensional vectors for the stochastic harmonic function (SHF) of rail irregularity power spectrum density was adopted to determine the representative points of spatial frequencies and phases to generate the random rail irregularity samples, and the non-stationary rail irregularity samples were modulated with the slowly varying function. Second, the probability density evolution method (PDEM) was employed to calculate the random dynamic vibration of the three-dimensional (3D) train-bridge system by a program compiled on the MATLAB® software platform. Eventually, the Newmark-β integration method and double edge difference method of total variation diminishing (TVD) format were adopted to obtain the mean value curve, the standard deviation curve and the time-history probability density information of responses. A case study was presented in which the ICE-3 train travels on a three-span simply-supported high-speed railway bridge with excitation of random rail irregularity. The results showed that compared to the Monte Carlo simulation, the PDEM has higher computational efficiency for the same accuracy, i.e., an improvement by 1-2 orders of magnitude. Additionally, the influences of rail irregularity and train speed on the random vibration of the coupled train-bridge system were discussed.

A Study of Mexican Free-Tailed Bat Chirp Syllables: Bayesian Functional Mixed Models for Nonstationary Acoustic Time Series

KAUST Repository

Martinez, Josue G.; Bohn, Kirsten M.; Carroll, Raymond J.; Morris, Jeffrey S.

2013-01-01

We describe a new approach to analyze chirp syllables of free-tailed bats from two regions of Texas in which they are predominant: Austin and College Station. Our goal is to characterize any systematic regional differences in the mating chirps and assess whether individual bats have signature chirps. The data are analyzed by modeling spectrograms of the chirps as responses in a Bayesian functional mixed model. Given the variable chirp lengths, we compute the spectrograms on a relative time scale interpretable as the relative chirp position, using a variable window overlap based on chirp length. We use 2D wavelet transforms to capture correlation within the spectrogram in our modeling and obtain adaptive regularization of the estimates and inference for the regions-specific spectrograms. Our model includes random effect spectrograms at the bat level to account for correlation among chirps from the same bat, and to assess relative variability in chirp spectrograms within and between bats. The modeling of spectrograms using functional mixed models is a general approach for the analysis of replicated nonstationary time series, such as our acoustical signals, to relate aspects of the signals to various predictors, while accounting for between-signal structure. This can be done on raw spectrograms when all signals are of the same length, and can be done using spectrograms defined on a relative time scale for signals of variable length in settings where the idea of defining correspondence across signals based on relative position is sensible.

A Study of Mexican Free-Tailed Bat Chirp Syllables: Bayesian Functional Mixed Models for Nonstationary Acoustic Time Series

KAUST Repository

Martinez, Josue G.

2013-06-01

We describe a new approach to analyze chirp syllables of free-tailed bats from two regions of Texas in which they are predominant: Austin and College Station. Our goal is to characterize any systematic regional differences in the mating chirps and assess whether individual bats have signature chirps. The data are analyzed by modeling spectrograms of the chirps as responses in a Bayesian functional mixed model. Given the variable chirp lengths, we compute the spectrograms on a relative time scale interpretable as the relative chirp position, using a variable window overlap based on chirp length. We use 2D wavelet transforms to capture correlation within the spectrogram in our modeling and obtain adaptive regularization of the estimates and inference for the regions-specific spectrograms. Our model includes random effect spectrograms at the bat level to account for correlation among chirps from the same bat, and to assess relative variability in chirp spectrograms within and between bats. The modeling of spectrograms using functional mixed models is a general approach for the analysis of replicated nonstationary time series, such as our acoustical signals, to relate aspects of the signals to various predictors, while accounting for between-signal structure. This can be done on raw spectrograms when all signals are of the same length, and can be done using spectrograms defined on a relative time scale for signals of variable length in settings where the idea of defining correspondence across signals based on relative position is sensible.

How well can business cycle accounting account for business cycles?

OpenAIRE

Keisuke Otsu

2012-01-01

The business cycle accounting method introduced by Chari, Kehoe and McGrattan (2007) is a useful tool to decompose business cycle fluctuations into their contributing factors. However, the model estimated by the maximum likelihood method cannot replicate business cycle moments computed from data. Moment-based estimation might be an attractive alternative if the purpose of the research is to study business cycle properties such as volatility, persistence and cross-correlation of variables inst...

Cycling in Sydney, Australia

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Alexis Zander

2013-01-01

Full Text Available Introduction. Cycling can be an enjoyable way to meet physical activity recommendations and is suitable for older people; however cycling participation by older Australians is low. This qualitative study explored motivators, enablers, and barriers to cycling among older people through an age-targeted cycling promotion program. Methods. Seventeen adults who aged 50–75 years participated in a 12-week cycling promotion program which included a cycling skills course, mentor, and resource pack. Semistructured interviews at the beginning and end of the program explored motivators, enablers, and barriers to cycling. Results. Fitness and recreation were the primary motivators for cycling. The biggest barrier was fear of cars and traffic, and the cycling skills course was the most important enabler for improving participants’ confidence. Reported outcomes from cycling included improved quality of life (better mental health, social benefit, and empowerment and improved physical health. Conclusions. A simple cycling program increased cycling participation among older people. This work confirms the importance of improving confidence in this age group through a skills course, mentors, and maps and highlights additional strategies for promoting cycling, such as ongoing improvement to infrastructure and advertising.

Marine nitrogen cycle

Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

Naqvi, S.W.A.

) such as the Marine nitrogen cycle The marine nitrogen cycle. ‘X’ and ‘Y’ are intra-cellular intermediates that do not accumulate in water column. (Source: Codispoti et al., 2001) Page 1 of 3Marine nitrogen cycle - Encyclopedia of Earth 11/20/2006http://www... and nitrous oxide budgets: Moving targets as we enter the anthropocene?, Sci. Mar., 65, 85-105, 2001. Page 2 of 3Marine nitrogen cycle - Encyclopedia of Earth 11/20/2006http://www.eoearth.org/article/Marine_nitrogen_cycle square6 Gruber, N.: The dynamics...

Reproductive cycles in tropical intertidal gastropods are timed around tidal amplitude cycles.

Science.gov (United States)

Collin, Rachel; Kerr, Kecia; Contolini, Gina; Ochoa, Isis

2017-08-01

Reproduction in iteroparous marine organisms is often timed with abiotic cycles and may follow lunar, tidal amplitude, or daily cycles. Among intertidal marine invertebrates, decapods are well known to time larval release to coincide with large amplitude nighttime tides, which minimizes the risk of predation. Such bimonthly cycles have been reported for few other intertidal invertebrates. We documented the reproduction of 6 gastropod species from Panama to determine whether they demonstrate reproductive cycles, whether these cycles follow a 2-week cycle, and whether cycles are timed so that larval release occurs during large amplitude tides. Two of the species ( Crepidula cf. marginalis and Nerita scabricosta ) showed nonuniform reproduction, but without clear peaks in timing relative to tidal or lunar cycles. The other 4 species show clear peaks in reproduction occurring every 2 weeks. In 3 of these species ( Cerithideopsis carlifornica var. valida, Littoraria variegata , and Natica chemnitzi ), hatching occurred within 4 days of the maximum amplitude tides. Siphonaria palmata exhibit strong cycles, but reproduction occurred during the neap tides. Strong differences in the intensity of reproduction of Cerithideopsis carlifornica , and in particular, Littoraria variegata , between the larger and smaller spring tides of a lunar month indicate that these species time reproduction with the tidal amplitude cycle rather than the lunar cycle. For those species that reproduce during both the wet and dry seasons, we found that reproductive timing did not differ between seasons despite strong differences in temperature and precipitation. Overall, we found that most (4/6) species have strong reproductive cycles synchronized with the tidal amplitude cycle and that seasonal differences in abiotic factors do not alter these cycles.

Creeping of hysteresis cycles; Reptation des cycles d'hysteresis

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Neel, L [Commissariat a l' Energie Atomique, Saclay (France). Centre d' Etudes Nucleaires; Faculte des Sciences de Grenoble, 38 (France)

1959-07-01

Creeping consists of a kind of progressive translation of dissymmetric ferromagnetic hysteresis cycles as a function of the order number of the cycle. It is interpreted here by means of a probable coupling field, the existence of which is connected to a statistical conception of the distribution of the elementary regions. (author) [French] La reptation consiste en une sorte de translation progressive des cycles d'hysteresis ferromagnetiques dissymetriques en fonction du numero d'ordre du cycle. L'auteur l'interprete au moyen d'un champ aleatoire de couplage dont l'existence est liee a une conception statistique de la distribution des domaines elementaires. (auteur)

Glacial cycles

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kaufmann, R. K.; Juselius, Katarina

We use a statistical model, the cointegrated vector autoregressive model, to assess the degree to which variations in Earth's orbit and endogenous climate dynamics can be used to simulate glacial cycles during the late Quaternary (390 kyr-present). To do so, we estimate models of varying complexity...... and compare the accuracy of their in-sample simulations. Results indicate that strong statistical associations between endogenous climate variables are not enough for statistical models to reproduce glacial cycles. Rather, changes in solar insolation associated with changes in Earth's orbit are needed...... to simulate glacial cycles accurately. Also, results suggest that non-linear 10 dynamics, threshold effects, and/or free oscillations may not play an overriding role in glacial cycles....

Completed Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition: a Robust Signal Processing Tool to Identify Sequence Strata

Science.gov (United States)

Purba, H.; Musu, J. T.; Diria, S. A.; Permono, W.; Sadjati, O.; Sopandi, I.; Ruzi, F.

2018-03-01

Well logging data provide many geological information and its trends resemble nonlinear or non-stationary signals. As long well log data recorded, there will be external factors can interfere or influence its signal resolution. A sensitive signal analysis is required to improve the accuracy of logging interpretation which it becomes an important thing to determine sequence stratigraphy. Complete Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition (CEEMD) is one of nonlinear and non-stationary signal analysis method which decomposes complex signal into a series of intrinsic mode function (IMF). Gamma Ray and Spontaneous Potential well log parameters decomposed into IMF-1 up to IMF-10 and each of its combination and correlation makes physical meaning identification. It identifies the stratigraphy and cycle sequence and provides an effective signal treatment method for sequence interface. This method was applied to BRK- 30 and BRK-13 well logging data. The result shows that the combination of IMF-5, IMF-6, and IMF-7 pattern represent short-term and middle-term while IMF-9 and IMF-10 represent the long-term sedimentation which describe distal front and delta front facies, and inter-distributary mouth bar facies, respectively. Thus, CEEMD clearly can determine the different sedimentary layer interface and better identification of the cycle of stratigraphic base level.

The glutathione cycle: Glutathione metabolism beyond the γ-glutamyl cycle.

Science.gov (United States)

Bachhawat, Anand Kumar; Yadav, Shambhu

2018-04-17

Glutathione was discovered in 1888, over 125 years ago. Since then, our understanding of various functions and metabolism of this important molecule has grown over these years. But it is only now, in the last decade, that a somewhat complete picture of its metabolism has emerged. Glutathione metabolism has till now been largely depicted and understood by the γ-glutamyl cycle that was proposed in 1970. However, new findings and knowledge particularly on the transport and degradation of glutathione have revealed that many aspects of the γ-glutamyl cycle are incorrect. Despite this, an integrated critical analysis of the cycle has never been undertaken and this has led to the cycle and its errors perpetuating in the literature. This review takes a careful look at the γ-glutamyl cycle and its shortcomings and presents a "glutathione cycle" that captures the current understanding of glutathione metabolism. © 2018 IUBMB Life, 2018. © 2018 International Union of Biochemistry and Molecular Biology.

Single generation cycles and delayed feedback cycles are not separate phenomena.

Science.gov (United States)

Pfaff, T; Brechtel, A; Drossel, B; Guill, C

2014-12-01

We study a simple model for generation cycles, which are oscillations with a period of one or a few generation times of the species. The model is formulated in terms of a single delay-differential equation for the population density of an adult stage, with recruitment to the adult stage depending on the intensity of competition during the juvenile phase. This model is a simplified version of a group of models proposed by Gurney and Nisbet, who were the first to distinguish between single-generation cycles and delayed-feedback cycles. According to these authors, the two oscillation types are caused by different mechanisms and have periods in different intervals, which are one to two generation times for single-generation cycles and two to four generation times for delayed-feedback cycles. By abolishing the strict coupling between the maturation time and the time delay between competition and its effect on the population dynamics, we find that single-generation cycles and delayed-feedback cycles occur in the same model version, with a gradual transition between the two as the model parameters are varied over a sufficiently large range. Furthermore, cycle periods are not bounded to lie within single octaves. This implies that a clear distinction between different types of generation cycles is not possible. Cycles of all periods and even chaos can be generated by varying the parameters that determine the time during which individuals from different cohorts compete with each other. This suggests that life-cycle features in the juvenile stage and during the transition to the adult stage are important determinants of the dynamics of density limited populations. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

[Cycling in Zagreb].

Science.gov (United States)

Matos, Stipan; Krapac, Ladislav; Krapac, Josip

2007-01-01

Cycling in Zagreb, as means of urban transport inside and outside the city, has a bright past, hazy presence but a promising future. Every day, aggressive citizens who lack urban traffic culture mistreat many cyclists but also many pedestrians. Sedentary way of living, unhealthy eating habits and inadequate recreation would surely be reduced if Zagreb had a network of cycling tracks (190 cm) or lanes (80 cm). Main city roads were constructed at the beginning of the 20th century. Today, the lack of cycling tracks is particularly evident in terms of missing connections between northern and southern parts of the city. Transportation of bikes in public vehicles, parking of bikes as well as cycling along the foot of the mountains Medvednica and Zumberacko gorje is not adequately organized. Better organization is necessary not only because of the present young generation but also because of the young who will shortly become citizens of the EU, where cycling is enormously popular. Cycling tourism is not known in Zagreb, partly due to inadequate roads. The surroundings of Zagreb are more suitable for cycling tourism and attractive brochures and tourist guides offer information to tourists on bikes. Professional, acrobatic and sports cycling do not have a tradition in Zagreb and in Croatia. The same holds true for recreational cycling and indoor exercise cycling. The authors discuss the impact of popularization of cycling using print and electronic media. The role of district and local self-government in the construction and improvement of traffic roads in Zagreb is very important. It is also significant for the implementation of legal regulations that must be obeyed by all traffic participants in order to protect cyclists, the most vulnerable group of traffic participants besides passengers. Multidisciplinary action of all benevolent experts would surely increase safety and pleasure of cycling in the city and its surroundings. This would also help reduce daily stress and

Exploring the Non-Stationary Effects of Forests and Developed Land within Watersheds on Biological Indicators of Streams Using Geographically-Weighted Regression

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Kyoung-Jin An

2016-03-01

Full Text Available This study examined the non-stationary relationship between the ecological condition of streams and the proportions of forest and developed land in watersheds using geographically-weighted regression (GWR. Most previous studies have adopted the ordinary least squares (OLS method, which assumes stationarity of the relationship between land use and biological indicators. However, these conventional OLS models cannot provide any insight into local variations in the land use effects within watersheds. Here, we compared the performance of the OLS and GWR statistical models applied to benthic diatom, macroinvertebrate, and fish communities in sub-watershed management areas. We extracted land use datasets from the Ministry of Environment LULC map and data on biological indicators in Nakdong river systems from the National Aquatic Ecological Monitoring Program in Korea. We found that the GWR model had superior performance compared with the OLS model, as assessed based on R2, Akaike’s Information Criterion, and Moran’s I values. Furthermore, GWR models revealed specific localized effects of land use on biological indicators, which we investigated further. The results of this study can be used to inform more effective policies on watershed management and to enhance ecological integrity by prioritizing sub-watershed management areas

DNA Replication and Cell Cycle Progression Regulatedby Long Range Interaction between Protein Complexes bound to DNA.

Science.gov (United States)

Matsson, L

2001-12-01

A nonstationary interaction that controlsDNA replication and the cell cycle isderived from many-body physics in achemically open T cell. The model predictsa long range force F'(ξ) =- (κ/2) ξ(1 - ξ)(2 - ξ)between thepre-replication complexes (pre-RCs) boundby the origins in DNA, ξ = ϕ/N being the relativedisplacement of pre-RCs, ϕ the number of pre-RCs, N the number of replicons to be replicated,and κ the compressibilitymodulus in the lattice of pre-RCs whichbehaves dynamically like an elasticallybraced string. Initiation of DNAreplication is induced at the thresholdϕ = N by a switch ofsign of F''(ξ), fromattraction (-) and assembly in the G(1) phase (0force at ϕ = 2N, from repulsion inS phase back to attraction in G(2), when all primed replicons havebeen duplicated once. F'(0) = 0corresponds to a resting cell in theabsence of driving force at ϕ= 0. The model thus ensures that the DNAcontent in G(2) cells is exactlytwice that of G(1) cells. The switch of interaction at the R-point, at which N pre-RCs have been assembled, starts the release of Rb protein thus also explaining the shift in the Rb phosphorylation from mitogen-dependent cyclinD to mitogen-independent cyclin E.Shape,slope and scale of the response curvesderived agree well with experimental datafrom dividing T cells and polymerising MTs,the variable length of which is due to anonlinear dependence of the growthamplitude on the initial concentrations oftubulin dimers and guanosine-tri-phosphate(GTP). The model also explains the dynamic instabilityin growing MTs.

Cycle to Cycle Variation Study in a Dual Fuel Operated Engine

KAUST Repository

Pasunurthi, Shyamsundar

2017-03-28

The standard capability of engine experimental studies is that ensemble averaged quantities like in-cylinder pressure from multiple cycles and emissions are reported and the cycle to cycle variation (CCV) of indicated mean effective pressure (IMEP) is captured from many consecutive combustion cycles for each test condition. However, obtaining 3D spatial distribution of all the relevant quantities such as fuel-air mixing, temperature, turbulence levels and emissions from such experiments is a challenging task. Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) simulations of engine flow and combustion can be used effectively to visualize such 3D spatial distributions. A dual fuel engine is considered in the current study, with manifold injected natural gas (NG) and direct injected diesel pilot for ignition. Multiple engine cycles in 3D are simulated in series like in the experiments to investigate the potential of high fidelity RANS simulations coupled with detailed chemistry, to accurately predict the CCV. Cycle to cycle variation (CCV) is expected to be due to variabilities in operating and boundary conditions, in-cylinder stratification of diesel and natural gas fuels, variation in in-cylinder turbulence levels and velocity flow-fields. In a previous publication by the authors [1], variabilities in operating and boundary conditions are incorporated into several closed cycle simulations performed in parallel. Stochastic variations/stratifications of fuel-air mixture, turbulence levels, temperature and internal combustion residuals cannot be considered in such closed cycle simulations. In this study, open cycle simulations with port injection of natural gas predicted the combined effect of the stratifications on the CCV of in-cylinder pressure. The predicted Coefficient of Variation (COV) of cylinder pressure is improved compared to the one captured by closed cycle simulations in parallel.

Internal cycle modeling and environmental assessment of multiple cycle consumer products

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tsiliyannis, C.A.

2012-01-01

Highlights: ► Dynamic flow models are presented for remanufactured, reused or recycled products. ► Early loss and stochastic return are included for fast and slow cycling products. ► The reuse-to-input flow ratio (Internal Cycle Factor, ICF) is determined. ► The cycle rate, which is increasing with the ICF, monitors eco-performance. ► Early internal cycle losses diminish the ICF, the cycle rate and performance. - Abstract: Dynamic annual flow models incorporating consumer discard and usage loss and featuring deterministic and stochastic end-of-cycle (EOC) return by the consumer are developed for reused or remanufactured products (multiple cycle products, MCPs), including fast and slow cycling, short and long-lived products. It is shown that internal flows (reuse and overall consumption) increase proportionally to the dimensionless internal cycle factor (ICF) which is related to environmental impact reduction factors. The combined reuse/recycle (or cycle) rate is shown capable for shortcut, albeit effective, monitoring of environmental performance in terms of waste production, virgin material extraction and manufacturing impacts of all MCPs, a task, which physical variables (lifetime, cycling frequency, mean or total number of return trips) and conventional rates, via which environmental policy has been officially implemented (e.g. recycling rate) cannot accomplish. The cycle rate is shown to be an increasing (hyperbolic) function of ICF. The impact of the stochastic EOC return characteristics on total reuse and consumption flows, as well as on eco-performance, is assessed: symmetric EOC return has a small, positive effect on performance compared to deterministic, while early shifted EOC return is more beneficial. In order to be efficient, environmental policy should set higher minimum reuse targets for higher trippage MCPs. The results may serve for monitoring, flow accounting and comparative eco-assessment of MCPs. They may be useful in identifying

The nonstationary impact of local temperature changes and ENSO on extreme precipitation at the global scale

Science.gov (United States)

Sun, Qiaohong; Miao, Chiyuan; Qiao, Yuanyuan; Duan, Qingyun

2017-12-01

The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and local temperature are important drivers of extreme precipitation. Understanding the impact of ENSO and temperature on the risk of extreme precipitation over global land will provide a foundation for risk assessment and climate-adaptive design of infrastructure in a changing climate. In this study, nonstationary generalized extreme value distributions were used to model extreme precipitation over global land for the period 1979-2015, with ENSO indicator and temperature as covariates. Risk factors were estimated to quantify the contrast between the influence of different ENSO phases and temperature. The results show that extreme precipitation is dominated by ENSO over 22% of global land and by temperature over 26% of global land. With a warming climate, the risk of high-intensity daily extreme precipitation increases at high latitudes but decreases in tropical regions. For ENSO, large parts of North America, southern South America, and southeastern and northeastern China are shown to suffer greater risk in El Niño years, with more than double the chance of intense extreme precipitation in El Niño years compared with La Niña years. Moreover, regions with more intense precipitation are more sensitive to ENSO. Global climate models were used to investigate the changing relationship between extreme precipitation and the covariates. The risk of extreme, high-intensity precipitation increases across high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere but decreases in middle and lower latitudes under a warming climate scenario, and will likely trigger increases in severe flooding and droughts across the globe. However, there is some uncertainties associated with the influence of ENSO on predictions of future extreme precipitation, with the spatial extent and risk varying among the different models.

Cycle to Cycle Variation Study in a Dual Fuel Operated Engine

KAUST Repository

Pasunurthi, Shyamsundar; Jupudi, Ravichandra; Wijeyakulasuriya, Sameera; Gubba, Sreenivasa Rao; Im, Hong G.; Jaasim, Mohammed; Primus, Roy; Klingbeil, Adam; Finney, Charles

2017-01-01

The standard capability of engine experimental studies is that ensemble averaged quantities like in-cylinder pressure from multiple cycles and emissions are reported and the cycle to cycle variation (CCV) of indicated mean effective pressure (IMEP

The Hamburg oceanic carbon cycle circulation model. Cycle 1

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Maier-Reimer, E.; Heinze, C.

1992-02-01

The carbon cycle model calculates the prognostic fields of oceanic geochemical carbon cycle tracers making use of a 'frozen' velocity field provided by a run of the LSG oceanic circulation model (see the corresponding manual, LSG=Large Scale Geostrophic). The carbon cycle model includes a crude approximation of interactions between sediment and bottom layer water. A simple (meridionally diffusive) one layer atmosphere model allows to calculate the CO 2 airborne fraction resulting from the oceanic biogeochemical interactions. (orig.)

Spectral L2/L1 norm: A new perspective for spectral kurtosis for characterizing non-stationary signals

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Dong

2018-05-01

Thanks to the great efforts made by Antoni (2006), spectral kurtosis has been recognized as a milestone for characterizing non-stationary signals, especially bearing fault signals. The main idea of spectral kurtosis is to use the fourth standardized moment, namely kurtosis, as a function of spectral frequency so as to indicate how repetitive transients caused by a bearing defect vary with frequency. Moreover, spectral kurtosis is defined based on an analytic bearing fault signal constructed from either a complex filter or Hilbert transform. On the other hand, another attractive work was reported by Borghesani et al. (2014) to mathematically reveal the relationship between the kurtosis of an analytical bearing fault signal and the square of the squared envelope spectrum of the analytical bearing fault signal for explaining spectral correlation for quantification of bearing fault signals. More interestingly, it was discovered that the sum of peaks at cyclic frequencies in the square of the squared envelope spectrum corresponds to the raw 4th order moment. Inspired by the aforementioned works, in this paper, we mathematically show that: (1) spectral kurtosis can be decomposed into squared envelope and squared L2/L1 norm so that spectral kurtosis can be explained as spectral squared L2/L1 norm; (2) spectral L2/L1 norm is formally defined for characterizing bearing fault signals and its two geometrical explanations are made; (3) spectral L2/L1 norm is proportional to the square root of the sum of peaks at cyclic frequencies in the square of the squared envelope spectrum; (4) some extensions of spectral L2/L1 norm for characterizing bearing fault signals are pointed out.

Future fuel cycles

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Archinoff, G.H.

1980-01-01

A fuel cycle must offer both financial and resource savings if it is to be considered for introduction into Ontario's nuclear system. The most promising alternative CANDU fuel cycles are examined in the context of both of these factors over a wide range of installed capacity growth rates and economic assumptions, in order to determine which fuel cycle, or cycles, should be introduced, and when. It is concluded that the optimum path for the long term begins with the prompt introduction of the low-enriched-uranium fuel cycle. For a wide range of conditions, this cycle remains the optimum throughout the very long term. Conditions of rapid nuclear growth and very high uranium price escalation rates warrant the supersedure of the low-enriched-uranium cycle by either a plutonium-topped thorium cycle or plutonium recycle, beginning between 2010 and 2025. It is also found that the uranium resource position is sound in terms of both known resources and production capability. Moreover, introduction of the low-enriched-uranium fuel cycle and 1250 MWe reactor units will assure the economic viability of nuclear power until at least 2020, even if uranium prices increase at a rate of 3.5% above inflation. The interrelationship between these two conclusions lies in the tremendous incentive for exploration which will occur if the real uranium price escalation rate is high. From a competitive viewpoint, nuclear power can withstand increases in the price of uranium. However, such increases will likely further expand the resource base, making nuclear an even more reliable energy source. (auth)

Life Cycle Management

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Bey, Niki

2018-01-01

This chapter gives an overview of Life Cycle Management (LCM)—a discipline that deals with the managerial tasks related to practicing sustainable development in an organisation . Just as Life Cycle Assessment, LCM advocates the life cycle perspective , and it applies this perspective in decision...

BWROPT: A multi-cycle BWR fuel cycle optimization code

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Ottinger, Keith E.; Maldonado, G. Ivan, E-mail: Ivan.Maldonado@utk.edu

2015-09-15

Highlights: • A multi-cycle BWR fuel cycle optimization algorithm is presented. • New fuel inventory and core loading pattern determination. • The parallel simulated annealing algorithm was used for the optimization. • Variable sampling probabilities were compared to constant sampling probabilities. - Abstract: A new computer code for performing BWR in-core and out-of-core fuel cycle optimization for multiple cycles simultaneously has been developed. Parallel simulated annealing (PSA) is used to optimize the new fuel inventory and placement of new and reload fuel for each cycle considered. Several algorithm improvements were implemented and evaluated. The most significant of these are variable sampling probabilities and sampling new fuel types from an ordered array. A heuristic control rod pattern (CRP) search algorithm was also implemented, which is useful for single CRP determinations, however, this feature requires significant computational resources and is currently not practical for use in a full multi-cycle optimization. The PSA algorithm was demonstrated to be capable of significant objective function reduction and finding candidate loading patterns without constraint violations. The use of variable sampling probabilities was shown to reduce runtime while producing better results compared to using constant sampling probabilities. Sampling new fuel types from an ordered array was shown to have a mixed effect compared to random new fuel type sampling, whereby using both random and ordered sampling produced better results but required longer runtimes.

Sulfur cycle

Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

LokaBharathi, P.A.

Microbes, especially bacteria, play an important role in oxidative and reductive cycle of sulfur. The oxidative part of the cycle is mediated by photosynthetic bacteria in the presence of light energy and chemosynthetic forms in the absence of light...

Fast Reactor Fuel Cycle Cost Estimates for Advanced Fuel Cycle Studies

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Harrison, Thomas

2013-01-01

Presentation Outline: • Why Do I Need a Cost Basis?; • History of the Advanced Fuel Cycle Cost Basis; • Description of the Cost Basis; • Current Work; • Fast Reactor Fuel Cycle Applications; • Sample Fuel Cycle Cost Estimate Analysis; • Future Work

Nonstationary porosity evolution in mixing zone in coastal carbonate aquifer using an alternative modeling approach.

Science.gov (United States)

Laabidi, Ezzeddine; Bouhlila, Rachida

2015-07-01

In the last few decades, hydrogeochemical problems have benefited from the strong interest in numerical modeling. One of the most recognized hydrogeochemical problems is the dissolution of the calcite in the mixing zone below limestone coastal aquifer. In many works, this problem has been modeled using a coupling algorithm between a density-dependent flow model and a geochemical model. A related difficulty is that, because of the high nonlinearity of the coupled set of equations, high computational effort is needed. During calcite dissolution, an increase in permeability can be identified, which can induce an increase in the penetration of the seawater into the aquifer. The majority of the previous studies used a fully coupled reactive transport model in order to model such problem. Romanov and Dreybrodt (J Hydrol 329:661-673, 2006) have used an alternative approach to quantify the porosity evolution in mixing zone below coastal carbonate aquifer at steady state. This approach is based on the analytic solution presented by Phillips (1991) in his book Flow and Reactions in Permeable Rock, which shows that it is possible to decouple the complex set of equation. This equation is proportional to the square of the salinity gradient, which can be calculated using a density driven flow code and to the reaction rate that can be calculated using a geochemical code. In this work, this equation is used in nonstationary step-by-step regime. At each time step, the quantity of the dissolved calcite is quantified, the change of porosity is calculated, and the permeability is updated. The reaction rate, which is the second derivate of the calcium equilibrium concentration in the equation, is calculated using the PHREEQC code (Parkhurst and Apello 1999). This result is used in GEODENS (Bouhlila 1999; Bouhlila and Laabidi 2008) to calculate change of the porosity after calculating the salinity gradient. For the next time step, the same protocol is used but using the updated porosity

Essays on economic cycles

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Groot, de E.A. (Bert)

2006-01-01

Schumpeter’s line of thought of multiple economic cycles is further investigated. The existence of multiple cycles in economic variables is demonstrated. In basic innovations five different cycles are found. Multiple cycle structures are shown in various macro-economic variables from the United

Nuclear-fuel-cycle education: Module 1. Nuclear fuel cycle overview

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Eckhoff, N.D.

1981-07-01

This educational module is an overview of the nuclear-fule-cycle. The overview covers nuclear energy resources, the present and future US nuclear industry, the industry view of nuclear power, the International Nuclear Fuel Cycle Evaluation program, the Union of Concerned Scientists view of the nuclear-fuel-cycle, an analysis of this viewpoint, resource requirements for a model light water reactor, and world nuclear power considerations

Thorium cycles and proliferation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lovins, A.B.

1979-01-01

This paper analyzes several prevalent misconceptions about nuclear fuel cycles that breed fissile uranium-233 from thorium. Its main conclusions are: U-233, despite the gamma radioactivity of associated isotopes, is a rather attractive material for making fission bombs, and is a credible material for subnational as well as national groups to use for this purpose; (2) pure thorium cycles, which in effect merely substitute U-233 for Pu, would take many decades and much U to establish, and offer no significant safeguards advantage over Pu, cycles; (3) denatured Th-U cycles, which dilute the U-233 with inert U-238 to a level not directly usable in bombs, are not an effective safeguard even against subnational bomb-making; (4) several other features of mixed Th-U cycles are rather unattractive from a safeguards point of view; (5) thus, Th cycles of any kind are not a technical fix for proliferation (national or subnational) and, though probably more safeguardable than Pu cycles, are less so than once-through U cycles that entail no reprocessing; (6) while thorium cycles have some potential technical advantages, including flexibility, they cannot provide major savings in nuclear fuel resources compared to simpler ways of saving neutrons and U; and (7) while advocates of nuclear power may find Th cycles worth exploring, such cycles do not differ fundamentally from U cycles in any of the respects--including safeguards and fuel resources--that are relevant to the broader nuclear debate, and should not be euphorically embraced as if they did

Drivers of cycling demand and cycling futures in the Danish context

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Analysis of the time trend in cycling mode share based on longest possible time series. Logistic regression model of cycling as mode choice as basis for studying ‘driver variables’ contribution to time trend. Describing important vectors of change behind the time trend.......Analysis of the time trend in cycling mode share based on longest possible time series. Logistic regression model of cycling as mode choice as basis for studying ‘driver variables’ contribution to time trend. Describing important vectors of change behind the time trend....

Effect of non-stationary accretion on spectral state transitions: An example of a persistent neutron star LMXB 4U1636–536

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Hui; Yu, Wen-Fei

2018-03-01

Observations of black hole and neutron star X-ray binaries show that the luminosity of the hard-to-soft state transition is usually higher than that of the soft-to-hard state transition, indicating additional parameters other than mass accretion rate are required to interpret spectral state transitions. It has been found in some individual black hole or neutron star soft X-ray transients that the luminosity corresponding to the hard-to-soft state transition is positively correlated with the peak luminosity of the following soft state. In this work, we report the discovery of the same correlation in the single persistent neutron star low mass X-ray binary (LMXB) 4U 1636–536 based on data from the All Sky Monitor (ASM) on board RXTE, the Gas Slit Camera (GSC) on board MAXI and the Burst Alert Telescope (BAT) on board Swift. We also found such a positive correlation holds in this persistent neutron star LMXB in a luminosity range spanning about a factor of four. Our results indicate that non-stationary accretion also plays an important role in driving X-ray spectral state transitions in persistent accreting systems with small accretion flares, which is much less dramatic compared with the bright outbursts seen in many Galactic LMXB transients.

Assessing Cycling Participation in Australia

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Chris Rissel

2013-01-01

Full Text Available Planning and evaluating cycling programs at a national or state level requires accurate measures of cycling participation. However, recent reports of cycling participation have produced very different estimates. This paper examines the reported rates of cycling in five recent population surveys of cycling. Three surveys (one national and two from Sydney asking respondents when they last rode a bicycle generated cycling participation (cycled in the past year estimates of 29.7%, 34.1% and 28.9%. Two other national surveys which asked participants to recall (unprompted any physical activity done for exercise, recreation or sport in the previous 12 months, estimated cycling in the past year as 11.1% and 6.5%. While unprompted recall of cycling as a type of physical activity generates lower estimates of cycling participation than specific recall questions, both assessment approaches produced similar patterns of cycling by age and sex with both approaches indicating fewer women and older adults cycling. The different question styles most likely explain the substantial discrepancies between the estimates of cycling participation. Some differences are to be expected due to sampling variability, question differences, and regional variation in cycling.

Life-cycle cost analysis of adsorption cycles for desalination

KAUST Repository

Thu, Kyaw; Chakraborty, A.; Saha, B.B.; Chun, Won Gee; Ng, K.C.

2010-01-01

This paper presents the thermo-economic analysis of the adsorption desalination (AD) cycle that is driven by low-temperature waste heat from exhaust of industrial processes or renewable sources. The AD cycle uses an adsorbent such as the silica gel

On approximating restricted cycle covers

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Manthey, Bodo

2008-01-01

A cycle cover of a graph is a set of cycles such that every vertex is part of exactly one cycle. An $L$-cycle cover is a cycle cover in which the length of every cycle is in the set $L$. The weight of a cycle cover of an edge-weighted graph is the sum of the weights of its edges. We come close to

Nuclear power fuel cycle

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Havelka, S.; Jakesova, L.

1982-01-01

Economic problems are discussed of the fuel cycle (cost of the individual parts of the fuel cycle and the share of the fuel cycle in the price of 1 kWh), the technological problems of the fuel cycle (uranium ore mining and processing, uranium isotope enrichment, the manufacture of fuel elements, the building of long-term storage sites for spent fuel, spent fuel reprocessing, liquid and gaseous waste processing), and the ecologic aspects of the fuel cycle. (H.S.)

40 CFR 1065.514 - Cycle-validation criteria for operation over specified duty cycles.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-07-01

... 40 Protection of Environment 32 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Cycle-validation criteria for operation over specified duty cycles. 1065.514 Section 1065.514 Protection of Environment ENVIRONMENTAL... Over Specified Duty Cycles § 1065.514 Cycle-validation criteria for operation over specified duty...

Benefits of cycle stretchout in pressurized water reactor extended-burnup fuel cycles

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Matzie, R.A.; Leung, D.C.; Liu, Y.; Beekmann, R.W.

1981-01-01

Nuclear reactors are inherently capable of operating for a substantial period beyond their nominal end of cycle (EOC) as a result of negative moderator and fuel temperature coefficients and the decrease in xenon poisoning with lower core power levels. This inherent capability can be used to advantage to reduce annual uranium makeup requirements and cycle energy costs by the use of planned EOC stretchout. This paper discusses the fuel utilization efficiency and economics of both the five-batch, extended-burnup cycle and the three-batch, standard-burnup cycle, which can be improved by employing planned EOC (end of cycle) stretchout. 11 refs

Denatured fuel cycles

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Till, C.E.

1979-01-01

This paper traces the history of the denatured fuel concept and discusses the characteristics of fuel cycles based on the concept. The proliferation resistance of denatured fuel cycles, the reactor types they involve, and the limitations they place on energy generation potential are discussed. The paper concludes with some remarks on the outlook for such cycles

Edgeworth cycles revisited

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Doyle, Joseph; Muehlegger, Erich; Samphantharak, Krislert

2010-01-01

Some gasoline markets exhibit remarkable price cycles, where price spikes are followed by a series of small price declines: a pattern consistent with a model of Edgeworth cycles described by Maskin and Tirole. We extend the model and empirically test its predictions with a new dataset of daily station-level prices in 115 US cities. Consistent with the theory, and often in contrast with previous empirical work, we find the least and most concentrated markets are much less likely to exhibit cycling behavior both within and across cities; areas with more independent convenience-store gas stations are also more likely to cycle. (author)

Fuel cycle management

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Herbin, H.C.

1977-01-01

The fuel cycle management is more and more dependent on the management of the generation means among the power plants tied to the grid. This is due mainly because of the importance taken by the nuclear power plants within the power system. The main task of the fuel cycle management is to define the refuelling pattern of the new and irradiated fuel assemblies to load in the core as a function of: 1) the differences which exist between the actual conditions of the core and what was expected for the present cycle, 2) the operating constraints and the reactor availability, 3) the technical requirements in safety and the technological limits of the fuel, 4) the economics. Three levels of fuel cycle management can be considered: 1) a long term management: determination of enrichments and expected cycle lengths, 2) a mid term management whose aim corresponds to the evaluation of the batch to load within the core as a function of both: the next cycle length to achieve and the integrated power history of all the cycles up to the present one, 3) a short term management which deals with the updating of the loaded fuel utilisations to take into account the operation perturbations, or with the alteration of the loading pattern of the next batch to respect unexpected conditions. (orig.) [de

On conditions of negativity of friction resistance for nonstationary modes of blood flow and possible mechanism of affecting of environmental factors on energy effectiveness of cardiovascular system function

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sergey G. Chefranov

2013-05-01

Full Text Available It is shown that initiated by action of molecular viscosity impulse flow, directed usually from the moving fluid to limiting it solid surface, can, under certain conditions, turn to zero and get negative values in the case of non-stationary flow caused by alternating in time longitudinal (along the pipe axis pressure gradient. It is noted that this non-equilibrium mechanism of negative friction resistance in the similar case of pulsating blood flow in the blood vessels, in addition to the stable to turbulent disturbances swirled blood flow structure providing, can also constitute hydro-mechanical basis of the observed but not explained yet paradoxically high energy effectiveness of the normal functioning of the cardiovascular system (CVS. We consider respective mechanism of affecting on the stability of the normal work of CVS by environmental variable factors using shifting of hydro-dynamic mode with negative resistance realization range boundaries and variation of linear hydrodynamic instability leading to the structurally stable swirled blood flow organization.

Exergoeconomic comparison of TLC (trilateral Rankine cycle), ORC (organic Rankine cycle) and Kalina cycle using a low grade heat source

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yari, M.; Mehr, A.S.; Zare, V.; Mahmoudi, S.M.S.; Rosen, M.A.

2015-01-01

Recently, the TLC (trilateral power cycle) has attracted significant interest as it provides better matching between the temperature profiles in the evaporator compared to conventional power cycles. This article investigates the performance of this cycle and compares it with those for the ORC (organic Rankine cycle) and the Kalina cycle, from the viewpoints of thermodynamics and thermoeconomics. A low-grade heat source with a temperature of 120 °C is considered for all the three systems. Parametric studies are performed for the systems for several working fluids in the ORC and TLC. The systems are then optimized for either maximum net output power or minimum product cost, using the EES (engineering equation solver) software. The results for the TLC indicate that an increase in the expander inlet temperature leads to an increase in net output power and a decrease in product cost for this power plant, whereas this is not the case for the ORC system. It is found that, although the TLC can achieve a higher net output power compared with the ORC and Kalina (KCS11 (Kalina cycle system 11)) systems, its product cost is greatly affected by the expander isentropic efficiency. It is also revealed that using n-butane as the working fluid can result in the lowest product cost in the ORC and the TLC. In addition, it is observed that, for both the ORC and Kalina systems, the optimum operating condition for maximum net output power differs from that for minimum product cost. - Highlights: • Exergoeconomic analysis of trilateral Rankine cycle is performed. • The system performance is compared with Organic Rankine and Kalina cycles. • Net power from trilateral Rankine cycle is higher than the other power systems. • Superiority of trilateral cycle depends on its expander isentropic efficiency

Out-of-core fuel cycle optimization for nonequilibrium cycles

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Comes, S.A.; Turinsky, P.J.

1988-01-01

A methodology has been developed for determining the family of near-optimum fuel management schemes that minimize the levelized fuel cycle costs of a light water reactor over a multicycle planning horizon. Feed batch enrichments and sizes, burned batches to reinsert, and burnable poison loadings are determined for each cycle in the planning horizon. Flexibility in the methodology includes the capability to assess the economic benefits of various partially burned bath reload strategies as well as the effects of using split feed enrichments and enrichment palettes. Constraint limitations are imposed on feed enrichments, discharge burnups, moderator temperature coefficient, and cycle energy requirements

Air bottoming cycle, an alternative to combined cycles. Final report

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kaikko, J. [Royal Inst. of Techn., Stockholm (Sweden). Dept. of Energy Technology

2001-10-01

In this work, the idea of Air Bottoming Cycle (ABC) has been studied. The objectives for the work have been to establish an understanding of the concept for power and heat generation as well as to find - if possible - feasible concepts for future use in the Swedish energy system. Combined cycle in power generation is an established technology. In the conventional combined cycle, a gas turbine works as a topping cycle together with the steam (Rankine) bottoming cycle. In the ABC the steam bottoming cycle is replaced with a gas turbine (Brayton) bottoming cycle having air as a working fluid. The two gas turbines are thermally connected over a gas-to-gas heat exchanger. This concept promises savings in weight and cost, as well as operating benefits, compared to the Rankine bottoming technology. The ABC has been modelled using a heat balance program, and a parametric study for the concept optimisation as well as for off-design analysis has been performed. Performance of the ABC has been compared to other, established technologies. A preliminary economic evaluation has been made. As a result of the study, it is clarified that the Rankine bottoming cycle with steam remains superior to the ABC as regards electrical efficiency in the medium and large power scale. For small-scale applications (<10 MW{sub e}) where the thermodynamic advantage of the Rankine cycle is not dominating any longer and its economy is burdened by the heavy investment structure, the ABC becomes the better alternative for energy utilisation. A preliminary economic evaluation shows that (at energy prices autumn 2000) the ABC is at the same level as the comparable small-scale cogeneration installations. Due to high power-to-heat ratio however, higher electricity prices will favour the ABC. One interesting feature of the ABC is that about 50% of the dissipated low-value heat from the cycle is carried by clean (sterile) air at the temperature around 200 deg C. This air can be utilised for space heating or

Homogenization and two scales convergence of some stationary and non-stationary heat transfer problems, application to gas cooled nuclear rectors

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Habibi, Z.

2011-01-01

We are interested in the homogenization of heat transfer in periodic porous media modelling the geometry of a gas cooled nuclear reactor. This geometry is made of a solid media perforated by several long thin parallel cylinders, the diameter of which is of the same order than the period. The heat is transported by conduction in the solid part of the domain and by conduction, convection and radiative transfer in the fluid part (the cylinders). A non-local boundary condition models the radiative heat transfer on the cylinder walls. It is a stationary analysis corresponding to a nominal performance of the reactor core, and also non-stationary corresponding to a normal shut-down of the core. To obtain the homogenized problem we first use a formal two-scale asymptotic expansion method. The mathematical justification of our results is based on the notion of two-scale convergence. One feature of this work in dimension 3 is that it combines homogenization with a 3D to 2D asymptotic analysis since the radiative transfer in the limit cell problem is purely two-dimensional. A second feature of this work is the study of this heat transfer when it contains an oscillating thermal source at the microscopic level and a thermal exchange with the perforations. In this context, our numerical analysis shows a non-negligible contribution of the second order corrector which helps us to model the gradients appearing between the source area and the perforations. (author) [fr

'Benefits cycle' replacing premium cycle as consumerism takes hold.

Science.gov (United States)

2002-05-01

The traditional premium cycle of ups and downs in rates is giving way to a new phenomenon--driven by the advent of consumerism in health care--termed the "benefits cycle" by one consultant. Rather than shifts in rates, he argues, the future will see shifts in benefits packages.

Detecting the Spatially Non-Stationary Relationships between Housing Price and Its Determinants in China: Guide for Housing Market Sustainability

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yanchuan Mou

2017-10-01

Full Text Available Given the rapidly developing processes in the housing market of China, the significant regional difference in housing prices has become a serious issue that requires a further understanding of the underlying mechanisms. Most of the extant regression models are standard global modeling techniques that do not take spatial non-stationarity into consideration, thereby making them unable to reflect the spatial nature of the data and introducing significant bias into the prediction results. In this study, the geographically weighted regression model (GWR was applied to examine the local association between housing price and its potential determinants, which were selected in view of the housing supply and demand in 338 cities across mainland China. Non-stationary relationships were obtained, and such observation could be summarized as follows: (1 the associations between land price and housing price are all significant and positive yet having different magnitudes; (2 the relationship between supplied amount of residential land and housing price is not statistically significant for 272 of the 338 cities, thereby indicating that the adjustment of supplied land has a slight effect on housing price for most cities; and (3 the significance, direction, and magnitude of the relationships between the other three factors (i.e., urbanization rate, average wage of urban employees, proportion of renters and housing price vary across the 338 cities. Based on these findings, this paper discusses some key issues relating to the spatial variations, combined with local economic conditions and suggests housing regulation policies that could facilitate the sustainable development of the Chinese housing market.

Non-stationary Bias Correction of Monthly CMIP5 Temperature Projections over China using a Residual-based Bagging Tree Model

Science.gov (United States)

Yang, T.; Lee, C.

2017-12-01

The biases in the Global Circulation Models (GCMs) are crucial for understanding future climate changes. Currently, most bias correction methodologies suffer from the assumption that model bias is stationary. This paper provides a non-stationary bias correction model, termed Residual-based Bagging Tree (RBT) model, to reduce simulation biases and to quantify the contributions of single models. Specifically, the proposed model estimates the residuals between individual models and observations, and takes the differences between observations and the ensemble mean into consideration during the model training process. A case study is conducted for 10 major river basins in Mainland China during different seasons. Results show that the proposed model is capable of providing accurate and stable predictions while including the non-stationarities into the modeling framework. Significant reductions in both bias and root mean squared error are achieved with the proposed RBT model, especially for the central and western parts of China. The proposed RBT model has consistently better performance in reducing biases when compared to the raw ensemble mean, the ensemble mean with simple additive bias correction, and the single best model for different seasons. Furthermore, the contribution of each single GCM in reducing the overall bias is quantified. The single model importance varies between 3.1% and 7.2%. For different future scenarios (RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, and RCP 8.5), the results from RBT model suggest temperature increases of 1.44 ºC, 2.59 ºC, and 4.71 ºC by the end of the century, respectively, when compared to the average temperature during 1970 - 1999.

Natural cycle IVF with and without terminal HCG: learning from failed cycles.

Science.gov (United States)

Lenton, Elizabeth A

2007-08-01

Natural cycle IVF, without the use of LH down-regulation, is difficult because women start spontaneous LH surges at any time of the day and on any day of the week. This is not readily compatible with delivery of a routine IVF service and so historically the natural cycle has been modified by the use of human chorionic gonadotrophin (HCG) to make the natural cycle fit convenient clinical practice. This report re-evaluates data collected some years ago and seeks to determine whether the use of HCG is ultimately beneficial. Two large series of natural cycle IVF where only LH monitoring was performed (534 cycles) or where this was combined with HCG as necessary (241 cycles) were analysed. In essence, the use of HCG introduced as many problems as it overcame: there was no net benefit with respect to the number of eggs collected or clinical pregnancies generated. In fact there was an overall deterioration in all indices. The principle difficulties with natural cycle IVF are those associated with the prediction of follicle maturity and hence timing egg collection, and the conflict between costly and intrusively frequent monitoring with simpler but far less effective approaches.

Dual Expander Cycle Rocket Engine with an Intermediate, Closed-cycle Heat Exchanger

Science.gov (United States)

Greene, William D. (Inventor)

2008-01-01

A dual expander cycle (DEC) rocket engine with an intermediate closed-cycle heat exchanger is provided. A conventional DEC rocket engine has a closed-cycle heat exchanger thermally coupled thereto. The heat exchanger utilizes heat extracted from the engine's fuel circuit to drive the engine's oxidizer turbomachinery.

Ammonia-water Rankine cycle

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bo Hanliang; Ma Changwen; Wu Shaorong

1997-01-01

On characteristics of heating source and cooling source in nuclear heating reactor cooperation, the authors advance a new kind of power cycle in which a multicomponent mixture as the work fluid, ammonia-water Rankine cycle, describe its running principle, and compare it with steam Rankine cycle in the same situation. The result is that: the new kind of power cycle, ammonia-water Rankine cycle has higher electricity efficiency; it suits for the situation of heating source and cooling source which offered by nuclear heating reactor cooperation. For low temperature heating source, it maybe has a widely application

Study on the supercritical CO2 power cycles for landfill gas firing gas turbine bottoming cycle

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kim, Min Seok; Ahn, Yoonhan; Kim, Beomjoo; Lee, Jeong Ik

2016-01-01

In this paper, a comparison of nine supercritical carbon dioxide (S-CO 2 ) bottoming power cycles in conjunction with a topping cycle of landfill gas (LFG) fired 5MWe gas turbine is presented. For the comparison purpose, a sensitivity study of the cycle design parameters for nine different cycles was conducted and each cycle thermodynamic performance is evaluated. In addition, the cycle performance evaluation dependency on the compressor inlet temperature variation is performed to investigate how S-CO 2 cycles sensitive to the heat sink temperature variation. Furthermore, the development of new S-CO 2 cycle layouts is reported and the suggested cycles' performances are compared to the existing cycle layouts. It was found that a recompression cycle is not suitable for the bottoming cycle application, but a partial heating cycle has relatively higher net produced work with a simple layout and small number of components. Although a dual heated and flow split cycle has the highest net produced work, it has disadvantages of having numerous components and complex process which requires more sophisticated operational strategies. This study identified that the recuperation process is much more important than the intercooling process to the S-CO 2 cycle design for increasing the thermal efficiency and the net produced work point of view. - Highlights: • Study of nine S-CO 2 power cycle layouts for a small scale landfill gas power generation application. • Development of new S-CO 2 cycle layouts. • Sensitivity analysis of S-CO 2 cycles to evaluate and compare nine cycles' performances.

A comparison of advanced heat recovery power cycles in a combined cycle for large ships

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Larsen, Ulrik; Sigthorsson, Oskar; Haglind, Fredrik

2014-01-01

Strong motivation exists within the marine sector to reduce fuel expenses and to comply with ever stricter emission regulations. Heat recovery can address both of these issues. The ORC (organic Rankine cycle), the Kalina cycle and the steam Rankine cycle have received the majority of the focus in the literature. In the present work we compare these cycles in a combined cycle application with a large marine two-stroke diesel engine. We present an evaluation of the efficiency and the environmental impact, safety concerns and practical aspects of each of the cycles. A previously validated numerical engine model is combined with a turbocharger model and bottoming cycle models written in Matlab. Genetic algorithm optimisation results suggest that the Kalina cycle possess no significant advantages compared to the ORC or the steam cycle. While contributing to very high efficiencies, the organic working fluids possess high global warming potentials and hazard levels. It is concluded that the ORC has the greatest potential for increasing the fuel efficiency, and the combined cycle offers very high thermal efficiency. While being less efficient, the steam cycle has the advantages of being well proven, harmless to the environment as well as being less hazardous in comparison. - Highlights: • We compare steam, ORC (organic Rankine cycle) and Kalina cycles for waste heat recovery in marine engines. • We evaluate the efficiency and important qualitative differences. • The Kalina cycle presents no apparent advantages. • The steam cycle is well known, harmless and has a high efficiency. • The ORC has the highest efficiency but also important drawbacks

Effect of cycle coupling-configuration on energy cascade utilization for a new power and cooling cogeneration cycle

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jing, Xuye; Zheng, Danxing

2014-01-01

Highlights: • A new power and cooling cogeneration cycle was proposed. • The thermophysical properties and the performance of the new cycle were calculated. • Different cycle coupling-configurations were analyzed. • The energy efficiency boosting mechanism of the new cycle was elucidated. - Abstract: To recover mid-low grade heat, a new power/cooling cogeneration cycle was proposed by combining the Kalina cycle and the double-effect ammonia–water absorption refrigeration (DAAR) cycle together, and the equivalent heat-to-power and exergy efficiencies of the cogeneration cycle reached 41.18% and 58.00%, respectively. To determine the effect of cycle coupling-configuration on energy cascade utilization for the new cycle, the cycle coupling-configuration of the Kalina and DAAR cycles were first analyzed, after which the cycle coupling-configuration of the new cycle was analyzed. Analysis results showed that the cycle coupling-configuration of the new cycle enhanced the energy cascade utilization. Furthermore, the energy efficiency boosting mechanism of the new cycle was elucidated

Air bottoming cycle, an alternative to combined cycles. Final report

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kaikko, J. [Royal Inst. of Tech., Stockholm (Sweden). Dept. of Energy Technology

2002-02-01

In this work, the idea of Air Bottoming Cycle (ABC) has been studied. The objectives for the work have been to establish an understanding of the concept for power and heat generation as well as to find - if possible - feasible concepts for future use in the Swedish energy system. Combined cycle in power generation is an established technology. In the conventional combined cycle, a gas turbine works as a topping cycle together with the steam (Rankine) bottoming cycle. In the ABC the steam bottoming cycle is replaced with a gas turbine (Brayton) bottoming cycle having air as a working fluid. The two gas turbines are thermally connected over a gas-to-gas heat exchanger. This concept promises savings in weight and cost, as well as operating benefits, compared to the Rankine bottoming technology. The ABC has been modelled using a heat balance program, and a parametric study for the concept optimisation as well as for off-design analysis has been performed. Performance of the ABC has been compared to other, established technologies. A preliminary economic evaluation has been made. As a result of the study, it is clarified that the Rankine bottoming cycle with steam remains superior to the ABC as regards electrical efficiency in the medium and large power scale. For small-scale applications (<10 MW{sub e}) where the thermodynamic advantage of the Rankine cycle is not dominating any longer and its economy is burdened by the heavy investment structure, the ABC becomes the better alternative for energy utilisation. A preliminary economic evaluation shows that (at energy prices autumn 2000) the ABC is at the same level as the comparable small-scale cogeneration installations. Due to high power-to-heat ratio however, higher electricity prices will favour the ABC. One interesting feature of the ABC is that about 50% of the dissipated low-value heat from the cycle is carried by clean (sterile) air at the temperature around 200 deg C. This air can be utilised for space heating or

On Rigorous Drought Assessment Using Daily Time Scale: Non-Stationary Frequency Analyses, Revisited Concepts, and a New Method to Yield Non-Parametric Indices

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Charles Onyutha

2017-10-01

Full Text Available Some of the problems in drought assessments are that: analyses tend to focus on coarse temporal scales, many of the methods yield skewed indices, a few terminologies are ambiguously used, and analyses comprise an implicit assumption that the observations come from a stationary process. To solve these problems, this paper introduces non-stationary frequency analyses of quantiles. How to use non-parametric rescaling to obtain robust indices that are not (or minimally skewed is also introduced. To avoid ambiguity, some concepts on, e.g., incidence, extremity, etc., were revisited through shift from monthly to daily time scale. Demonstrations on the introduced methods were made using daily flow and precipitation insufficiency (precipitation minus potential evapotranspiration from the Blue Nile basin in Africa. Results show that, when a significant trend exists in extreme events, stationarity-based quantiles can be far different from those when non-stationarity is considered. The introduced non-parametric indices were found to closely agree with the well-known standardized precipitation evapotranspiration indices in many aspects but skewness. Apart from revisiting some concepts, the advantages of the use of fine instead of coarse time scales in drought assessment were given. The links for obtaining freely downloadable tools on how to implement the introduced methods were provided.

Very high cycle fatigue testing of concrete using ultrasonic cycling

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Karr, Ulrike; Schuller, Reinhard; Fitzka, Michael; Mayer, Herwig [Univ. of Natural Resources and Life Sciences, Vienna (Austria). Inst. of Physics and Materials Science; Denk, Andreas; Strauss, Alfred [Univ. of Natural Resources and Life Sciences, Vienna (Austria)

2017-06-01

The ultrasonic fatigue testing method has been further developed to perform cyclic compression tests with concrete. Cylindrical specimens vibrate in resonance at a frequency of approximately 20 kHz with superimposed compressive static loads. The high testing frequency allows time-saving investigations in the very high cycle fatigue regime. Fatigue tests were carried out on ''Concrete 1'' (compressive strength f{sub c} = 80 MPa) and ''Concrete 2'' (f{sub c} = 107 MPa) under purely compressive loading conditions. Experiments at maximum compressive stresses of 0.44 f{sub c} (Concrete 1) and 0.38 f{sub c} (Concrete 2) delivered specimen failures above 109 cycles, indicating that no fatigue limit exists for concrete below one billion load cycles. Resonance frequency, power required to resonate the specimen and second order harmonics of the vibration are used to monitor fatigue damage in situ. Specimens were scanned by X-ray computed tomography prior to and after testing. Fatigue cracks were produced by ultrasonic cycling in the very high cycle fatigue regime at interfaces of grains as well as in cement. The possibilities as well as limitations of ultrasonic fatigue testing of concrete are discussed.

International Business Cycle

OpenAIRE

Marek Lubiński

2007-01-01

Prime stylized facts of international business cycle theory refer to positive correlation in the cyclical components of important macroeconomic variables across countries. However a number of indicators of business cycle synchronization do not point to clear trends. It can be ascribed to the fact that different forces influence level of business cycle correlation. When investigating into the forces behind the commonness in aggregate fluctuations economic research seems to have pointed in two ...

Nuclear fuel cycle system analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ko, W. I.; Kwon, E. H.; Kim, S. G.; Park, B. H.; Song, K. C.; Song, D. Y.; Lee, H. H.; Chang, H. L.; Jeong, C. J.

2012-04-01

The nuclear fuel cycle system analysis method has been designed and established for an integrated nuclear fuel cycle system assessment by analyzing various methodologies. The economics, PR(Proliferation Resistance) and environmental impact evaluation of the fuel cycle system were performed using improved DB, and finally the best fuel cycle option which is applicable in Korea was derived. In addition, this research is helped to increase the national credibility and transparency for PR with developing and fulfilling PR enhancement program. The detailed contents of the work are as follows: 1)Establish and improve the DB for nuclear fuel cycle system analysis 2)Development of the analysis model for nuclear fuel cycle 3)Preliminary study for nuclear fuel cycle analysis 4)Development of overall evaluation model of nuclear fuel cycle system 5)Overall evaluation of nuclear fuel cycle system 6)Evaluate the PR for nuclear fuel cycle system and derive the enhancement method 7)Derive and fulfill of nuclear transparency enhancement method The optimum fuel cycle option which is economical and applicable to domestic situation was derived in this research. It would be a basis for establishment of the long-term strategy for nuclear fuel cycle. This work contributes for guaranteeing the technical, economical validity of the optimal fuel cycle option. Deriving and fulfillment of the method for enhancing nuclear transparency will also contribute to renewing the ROK-U.S Atomic Energy Agreement in 2014

KOH concentration effect on cycle life of nickel-hydrogen cells. III - Cycle life test

Science.gov (United States)

Lim, H. S.; Verzwyvelt, S. A.

1988-01-01

A cycle life test of Ni/H2 cells containing electrolytes of various KOH concentrations and a sintered type nickel electrode was carried out at 23 C using a 45 min accelerated low earth orbit (LEO) cycle regime at 80 percent depth of discharge. One of three cells containing 26 percent KOH has achieved over 28,000 cycles, and the other two 19,000 cycles, without a sign of failure. Two other cells containing 31 percent KOH electrolyte, which is the concentration presently used in aerospace cells, failed after 2,979 and 3,620 cycles. This result indicates that the cycle life of the present type of Ni/H2 cells may be extended by a factor of 5 to 10 simply by lowering the KOH concentration. Long cycle life of a Ni/H2 battery at high depth-of-discharge operation is desired, particularly for an LEO spacecraft application. Typically, battery life of about 30,000 cycles is required for a five year mission in an LEO. Such a cycle life with presently available cells can be assured only at a very low depth-of-discharge operation. Results of testing already show that the cycle life of an Ni/H2 cell is tremendously improved by simply using an electrolyte of low KOH concentration.

Driving and engine cycles

CERN Document Server

Giakoumis, Evangelos G

2017-01-01

This book presents in detail the most important driving and engine cycles used for the certification and testing of new vehicles and engines around the world. It covers chassis and engine-dynamometer cycles for passenger cars, light-duty vans, heavy-duty engines, non-road engines and motorcycles, offering detailed historical information and critical review. The book also provides detailed examples from SI and diesel engines and vehicles operating during various cycles, with a focus on how the engine behaves during transients and how this is reflected in emitted pollutants, CO2 and after-treatment systems operation. It describes the measurement methods for the testing of new vehicles and essential information on the procedure for creating a driving cycle. Lastly, it presents detailed technical specifications on the most important chassis-dynamometer cycles around the world, together with a direct comparison of those cycles.

The heat engine cycle, the heat removal cycle, and ergonomics of the control room displays

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Beltracchi, L.

1986-01-01

This paper discusses and illustrates the ergonomics of an integrated display, which will allow operators to monitor the heat engine cycle during normal operation of the plant, and the heat removal cycle during emergency operation of the plant. A computer-based iconic display is discussed as an overview to monitor these cycles. Specific emphasis is placed upon the process variables and process functions within each cycle, and the action of control systems and engineered safeguard systems within each cycle. This paper contains examples of display formats for the heat engine cycle and the heat removal cycle in a pressurized water reactor

Nonlinear theory of nonstationary low Mach number channel flows of freely cooling nearly elastic granular gases.

Science.gov (United States)

Meerson, Baruch; Fouxon, Itzhak; Vilenkin, Arkady

2008-02-01

We employ hydrodynamic equations to investigate nonstationary channel flows of freely cooling dilute gases of hard and smooth spheres with nearly elastic particle collisions. This work focuses on the regime where the sound travel time through the channel is much shorter than the characteristic cooling time of the gas. As a result, the gas pressure rapidly becomes almost homogeneous, while the typical Mach number of the flow drops well below unity. Eliminating the acoustic modes and employing Lagrangian coordinates, we reduce the hydrodynamic equations to a single nonlinear and nonlocal equation of a reaction-diffusion type. This equation describes a broad class of channel flows and, in particular, can follow the development of the clustering instability from a weakly perturbed homogeneous cooling state to strongly nonlinear states. If the heat diffusion is neglected, the reduced equation becomes exactly soluble, and the solution develops a finite-time density blowup. The blowup has the same local features at singularity as those exhibited by the recently found family of exact solutions of the full set of ideal hydrodynamic equations [I. Fouxon, Phys. Rev. E 75, 050301(R) (2007); I. Fouxon,Phys. Fluids 19, 093303 (2007)]. The heat diffusion, however, always becomes important near the attempted singularity. It arrests the density blowup and brings about previously unknown inhomogeneous cooling states (ICSs) of the gas, where the pressure continues to decay with time, while the density profile becomes time-independent. The ICSs represent exact solutions of the full set of granular hydrodynamic equations. Both the density profile of an ICS and the characteristic relaxation time toward it are determined by a single dimensionless parameter L that describes the relative role of the inelastic energy loss and heat diffusion. At L>1 the intermediate cooling dynamics proceeds as a competition between "holes": low-density regions of the gas. This competition resembles Ostwald

Novel combined cycle configurations for propane pre-cooled mixed refrigerant (APCI) natural gas liquefaction cycle

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mortazavi, Amir; Alabdulkarem, Abdullah; Hwang, Yunho; Radermacher, Reinhard

2014-01-01

Highlights: • 10 New LNG plants driver cycle enhancement configurations were developed. • All the 14 enhancement options design variables were optimized to demonstrate their energy saving potentials. • The best driver cycle enhancement option improved the driver cycle energy efficiency by 38%. • The effects of technological advancements on the performances of the enhancement options were studied. - Abstract: A significant amount of energy is required for natural gas liquefaction. Due to the production scale of LNG plants, they consume an intensive amount of energy. Consequently, any enhancement to the energy efficiency of LNG plants will result in a considerable reduction in natural gas consumption and CO 2 emission. Compressor drivers are the main energy consumer in the LNG plants. In this paper, 14 different driver cycle enhancement options were considered. A number of these options have not been proposed for the LNG plants. The new driver cycle development was performed by analyzing and optimizing the design variables of four conventional driver cycle enhancement options. The optimization results were used to develop more efficient cycles through mitigating the active constrains and driver cycle innovations. Based on the current available technologies five of our newly developed driver cycle configurations have higher efficiency than the most efficient existing conventional driver cycle. The best developed driver cycle enhancement option improved the base driver cycle energy efficiency by 38%. The effects of technological advancement on the performances of the all driver cycle enhancement options were also considered

Chords in longest cycles

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Thomassen, Carsten

2017-01-01

If a graph G is 3-connected and has minimum degree at least 4, then some longest cycle in G has a chord. If G is 2-connected and cubic, then every longest cycle in G has a chord.......If a graph G is 3-connected and has minimum degree at least 4, then some longest cycle in G has a chord. If G is 2-connected and cubic, then every longest cycle in G has a chord....

Temporal fluxomics reveals oscillations in TCA cycle flux throughout the mammalian cell cycle.

Science.gov (United States)

Ahn, Eunyong; Kumar, Praveen; Mukha, Dzmitry; Tzur, Amit; Shlomi, Tomer

2017-11-06

Cellular metabolic demands change throughout the cell cycle. Nevertheless, a characterization of how metabolic fluxes adapt to the changing demands throughout the cell cycle is lacking. Here, we developed a temporal-fluxomics approach to derive a comprehensive and quantitative view of alterations in metabolic fluxes throughout the mammalian cell cycle. This is achieved by combining pulse-chase LC-MS-based isotope tracing in synchronized cell populations with computational deconvolution and metabolic flux modeling. We find that TCA cycle fluxes are rewired as cells progress through the cell cycle with complementary oscillations of glucose versus glutamine-derived fluxes: Oxidation of glucose-derived flux peaks in late G1 phase, while oxidative and reductive glutamine metabolism dominates S phase. These complementary flux oscillations maintain a constant production rate of reducing equivalents and oxidative phosphorylation flux throughout the cell cycle. The shift from glucose to glutamine oxidation in S phase plays an important role in cell cycle progression and cell proliferation. © 2017 The Authors. Published under the terms of the CC BY 4.0 license.

Throughput of oil and demand for oil of non-stationary loaded sliding bearings in internal combustion engines. Oeldurchsatz und Oelbedarf instationaer belasteter Gleitlager am Verbrennungsmotor

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Esch, H.J.

1981-12-17

The throughput of oil and the demand for oil of the non-stationary loaded sliding bearings was determined in a high speed petrol engine. The crankshaft bearing and connecting rod bearing were examined. The bearing temperature of the connecting rod bearing was measured by thermocouples built into this bearing; transmission of the signal from the rotating to the fixed part of the system was by means of a rotating transmitter. The temperature measurement in the crankshaft bearing was done by thermocouples in the bearing shell. Using a separate oil supply for the test bearing, the demand for oil was determined by reducing the oil pressure. Comparative oil throughput calculations were carried out to clear up the relationships discovered in the equipment. The results of the investigation are collected in 15 points, which are explained in detail. These include: negligible effect on the oil throughput of the ignition timing, air ratio and coolant temperature at constant speed and constant mean pressure, the considerable rise of the oil throughput through the connecting rod and crankshaft bearing with increasing speed, and the dominating effect of play in the bearing on the maximum bearing temperature.

Alternative fuel cycles

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Penn, W.J.

1979-05-01

Uranium resource utilization and economic considerations provide incentives to study alternative fuel cycles as future options to the PHWR natural uranium cycle. Preliminary studies to define the most favourable alternatives and their possible introduction dates are discussed. The important and uncertain components which influence option selection are reviewed, including nuclear capacity growth, uranium availability and demand, economic potential, and required technological developments. Finally, a summary of Ontario Hydro's program to further assess cycle selection and define development needs is given. (auth)

Educational Business Cycles

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Tepe, Markus; Vanhuysse, Pieter

Strong institutional constraints and better-informed voters may lead re-election seeking incumbents to shift the use of political business cycle mechanisms away from monetary and fiscal policy towards other policy domains that are more easily manipulable, targetable, and timeable. We investigate...... teacher employment patterns at the state level in Germany and find strong evidence of cycling mechanisms, in the form of electioneering and honeymooning. Against a backdrop of a continuously shrinking total teachers' pool, German state-level incumbents accelerate the hiring of new teachers during election...... periods and partly reverse this during politically safer points in the electoral cycle. Cycles are mediated by issue salience: heightened attention to German public schooling after the notorious PISA-2000 tests further strengthens the manipulation of new teacher hiring for electoral purposes....

Educational Business Cycles

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Tepe, Markus; Vanhuysse, Pieter

2009-01-01

Strong institutional constraints and better-informed voters may lead re-election seeking incumbents to shift the use of political business cycle mechanisms away from monetary and fiscal policy towards other policy domains that are more easily manipulable, targetable, and timeable. We investigate...... teacher employment patterns at the state level in Germany and find strong evidence of cycling mechanisms, in the form of electioneering and honeymooning. Against a backdrop of a continuously shrinking total teachers' pool, German state-level incumbents accelerate the hiring of new teachers during election...... periods and partly reverse this during politically safer points in the electoral cycle. Cycles are mediated by issue salience: heightened attention to German public schooling after the notorious PISA-2000 tests further strengthens the manipulation of new teacher hiring for electoral purposes....

Termination of cycle rewriting

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Zantema, H.; König, B.; Bruggink, H.J.S.; Dowek, G.

2014-01-01

String rewriting can not only be applied on strings, but also on cycles and even on general graphs. In this paper we investigate termination of string rewriting applied on cycles, shortly denoted as cycle rewriting, which is a strictly stronger requirement than termination on strings. Most

The Nuclear Fuel Cycle

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2011-08-01

This brochure describes the nuclear fuel cycle, which is an industrial process involving various activities to produce electricity from uranium in nuclear power reactors. The cycle starts with the mining of uranium and ends with the disposal of nuclear waste. The raw material for today's nuclear fuel is uranium. It must be processed through a series of steps to produce an efficient fuel for generating electricity. Used fuel also needs to be taken care of for reuse and disposal. The nuclear fuel cycle includes the 'front end', i.e. preparation of the fuel, the 'service period' in which fuel is used during reactor operation to generate electricity, and the 'back end', i.e. the safe management of spent nuclear fuel including reprocessing and reuse and disposal. If spent fuel is not reprocessed, the fuel cycle is referred to as an 'open' or 'once-through' fuel cycle; if spent fuel is reprocessed, and partly reused, it is referred to as a 'closed' nuclear fuel cycle.

Can cycling safety be improved by opening all unidirectional cycle paths for cycle traffic in both directions? A theoretical examination of available literature and data.

Science.gov (United States)

Methorst, Rob; Schepers, Paul; Kamminga, Jaap; Zeegers, Theo; Fishman, Elliot

2017-08-01

Many studies have found bicycle-motor vehicle crashes to be more likely on bidirectional cycle paths than on unidirectional cycle paths because drivers do not expect cyclists riding at the right side of the road. In this paper we discuss the hypothesis that opening all unidirectional cycle paths for cycle traffic in both directions prevent this lack of expectancy and accordingly improves cycling safety. A new national standard requires careful consideration because a reversal is difficult once cyclists are used to their new freedom of route choice. We therefore explored the hypothesis using available data, research, and theories. The results show that of the length of cycle paths along distributor roads in the Netherlands, 72% is bidirectional. If drivers would become used to cyclists riding at the left side of the road, this result raises the question of why bidirectional cycle paths in the Netherlands still have a poor safety record compared to unidirectional cycle paths. Moreover, our exploration suggested that bidirectional cycle paths have additional safety problems. It increases the complexity of unsignalized intersections because drivers have to scan more directions in a short period of time. Moreover, there are some indications that the likelihood of frontal crashes between cyclists increases. We reject the hypothesis that opening all unidirectional cycle paths for cycle traffic in both directions will improve cycle safety. We recommend more attention for mitigating measures given the widespread application of bidirectional cycle paths in the Netherlands. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Nuclear Fuel Cycle Information System. A directory of nuclear fuel cycle facilities. 2009 ed

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2009-04-01

The Nuclear Fuel Cycle Information System (NFCIS) is an international directory of civilian nuclear fuel cycle facilities, published online as part of the Integrated Nuclear Fuel Cycle Information System (iNFCIS: http://www-nfcis.iaea.org/). This is the fourth hardcopy publication in almost 30 years and it represents a snapshot of the NFCIS database as of the end of 2008. Together with the attached CD-ROM, it provides information on 650 civilian nuclear fuel cycle facilities in 53 countries, thus helping to improve the transparency of global nuclear fuel cycle activities

Pool size measurements facilitate the determination of fluxes at branching points in nonstationary metabolic flux analysis: The case of Arabidopsis thaliana

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Robert eHeise

2015-06-01

Full Text Available Pool size measurements are important for the estimation of absolute intracellular fluxes in particular scenarios based on data from heavy carbon isotope experiments. Recently, steady-state fluxes estimates were obtained for central carbon metabolism in an intact illuminated rosette of Arabidopsis thaliana grown photoautotrophically (Szecowka et al., 2013; Heise et al., 2014. Fluxes were estimated therein by integrating mass-spectrometric data of the dynamics of the unlabeled metabolic fraction, data on metabolic pool sizes, partitioning of metabolic pools between cellular compartments and estimates of photosynthetically inactive pools, with a simplified model of plant central carbon metabolism. However, the fluxes were determined by treating the pool sizes as fixed parameters. Here we investigated whether and, if so, to what extent the treatment of pool sizes as parameters to be optimized in three scenarios may affect the flux estimates. The results are discussed in terms of benchmark values for canonical pathways and reactions, including starch and sucrose synthesis as well as the ribulose-1,5-bisphosphate carboxylation and oxygenation reactions. In addition, we discuss pathways emerging from a divergent branch point for which pool sizes are required for flux estimation, irrespective of the computational approach used for the simulation of the observable labelling pattern. Therefore, our findings indicate the necessity for development of techniques for accurate pool size measurements to improve the quality of flux estimates from nonstationary flux estimates in intact plant cells in the absence of alternative flux measurements.

Entrepreneurship and the business cycle

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Koellinger, Philipp D.; Thurik, A. Roy

2012-01-01

We find new empirical regularities in the business cycle in a cross-country panel of 22 OECD countries for the period 1972 to 2007; entrepreneurship Granger-causes the cycles of the world economy. Furthermore, the entrepreneurial cycle is positively affected by the national unemployment cycle. We

Continuation of connecting orbits in 3d-ODEs. (ii) cycle-to-cycle connections.

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Doedel, E.J.; Kooi, B.W.; van Voorn, G.A.K.; Kuznetzov, Y.A.

2009-01-01

In Part I of this paper we have discussed new methods for the numerical continuation of point-to-cycle connecting orbits in three-dimensional autonomous ODE's using projection boundary conditions. In this second part we extend the method to the numerical continuation of cycle-to-cycle connecting

LIFE CYCLE OF INFORMATION SYSTEMS

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Y. S. Sennik

2015-01-01

Full Text Available This work is a generalization of the theoretical propositions related to the life cycle of information systems. There was given the definition of the life cycle, specify which items you should include every step of the cycle. Describes the methodology division of the life cycle on the main stage, including methodology Rational Unified Process. The description of the fundamental standards in this area. Special attention was paid to the work of the basic life cycle models. It was carried out their comparative characteristics. On the basis of the theoretical propositions, it was concluded that the preferred model of the life cycle for the corporate network is a spiral model and the use of international standards in the life cycle saves a lot of effort, time and material resources.

Two Quantum Polytropic Cycles

Science.gov (United States)

Arias-Hernández, L. A.; Morales-Serrano, A. F.

2002-11-01

In this work we follow the Bender et al paper [1] to study the quantum analogues of the Stirling and Ericsson polytropic cycles. In the context of the classical thermodynamics, the Stirling and Ericsson cycles correspond to reversible heat engines with two isothermal processes joined by two polytropic branches which occur in a device called regenerator. If this device is an ideal one, the efficiency of these cycles is the Carnot efficiency. Here, we introduce the quantum analogues of the Stirling and Ericsson cycles, the first one based on a double square potential well with a finite potential barrier, since in this system the tunnel effect could be the analogue to the regeneration classical process, therefore the isochoric quantum branches would really correspond to an internal energy storage, and the last one with an unknown system where the isobaric quantum processes don't induce changes in its quantum state. With these systems the quantum engines have cycles consisting of polytropic and isothermal quantum processes analogues to the corresponding classical processes. We show that in both cases the quantum cycles have an efficiency given by ηCQM = 1 - EC/EH, which is the same expression for the quantum analogue of the Carnot cycle studied by Bender.

Increasing thermal efficiency of Rankine cycles by using refrigeration cycles: A theoretical analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sarr, Joachim-André Raymond; Mathieu-Potvin, François

2016-01-01

Highlights: • A new stratagem is proposed to improve thermal efficiency of Rankine cycles. • Three new configurations are optimized by means of numerical simulations. • The Rankine-1SCR design is advantageous for 1338 different fluid combinations. • The Rankine-2SCR design is advantageous for 772 different fluid combinations. • The Rankine-3SCR design is advantageous for 768 different fluid combinations. - Abstract: In this paper, three different modifications of the basic Rankine thermodynamic cycle are proposed. The objective is to increase the thermal efficiency of power systems based on Rankine cycles. The three new systems are named “Rankine-1SCR”, “Rankine-2SCR”, and “Rankine-3SCR” cycles, and they consist of linking a refrigeration cycle to the basic Rankine cycle. The idea is to use the refrigeration cycle to create a low temperature heat sink for the Rankine cycle. These three new power plant configurations are modeled and optimized with numerical tools, and then they are compared with the basic Rankine cycle. The objective function is the thermal efficiency of the systems (i.e., net power output (kW) divided by heat rate (kW) entering the system), and the design variables are the operating temperatures within the systems. Among the 84 × 84 (i.e., 7056) possible combinations of working and cooling fluids investigated in this paper, it is shown that: (i) the Rankine-1SCR system is advantageous for 1338 different fluid combinations, (ii) the Rankine-2SCR system is advantageous for 772 different fluid combinations, and (iii) the Rankine-3SCR system is advantageous for 768 different fluid combinations.

Hybrid Combined Cycles with Biomass and Waste Fired Bottoming Cycle - a Literature Study

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Petrov, Miroslav P.

2002-02-01

Biomass is one of the main natural resources in Sweden. The present low-CO{sub 2} emission characteristics of the Swedish electricity production system (hydro and nuclear) can be retained only by expansion of biofuel applications for energy purposes. Domestic Swedish biomass resources are vast and renewable, but not infinite. They must be utilized as efficiently as possible, in order to make sure that they meet the conditions for sustainability in the future. Application of efficient power generation cycles at low costs is essential for meeting this challenge. This applies also to municipal solid waste incineration with energy extraction, which should be preferred to its dumping in landfills. Hybrid dual-fuel combined cycle units are a simple and affordable way to increase the electric efficiency of biofuel energy utilization, without big investments, uncertainties or loss of reliability arising from complicated technologies. Configurations of such power cycles are very flexible and reliable. Their potential for high electric efficiency in condensing mode, high total efficiency in combined heat and power mode and unrivalled load flexibility is explored in this project. The present report is a literature study that concentrates on certain biomass utilization technologies, in particular the design and performance of hybrid combined cycle power units of various configurations, with gas turbines and internal combustion engines as topping cycles. An overview of published literature and general development trends on the relevant topic is presented. The study is extended to encompass a short overview of biomass utilization as an energy source (focusing on Sweden), history of combined cycles development with reference especially to combined cycles with supplementary firing and coal-fired hybrid combined cycles, repowering of old steam units into hybrid ones and combined cycles for internal combustion engines. The hybrid combined cycle concept for municipal solid waste

Analyzing the non-stationary space relationship of a city's degree of vegetation and social economic conditions in Shanghai, China using OLS and GWR models

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Kejing; Zhang, Yuan; An, Youzhi; Jing, Zhuoxin; Wang, Chao

2013-09-01

With the fast urbanization process, how does the vegetation environment change in one of the most economically developed metropolis, Shanghai in East China? To answer this question, there is a pressing demand to explore the non-stationary relationship between socio-economic conditions and vegetation across Shanghai. In this study, environmental data on vegetation cover, the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) derived from MODIS imagery in 2003 were integrated with socio-economic data to reflect the city's vegetative conditions at the census block group level. To explore regional variations in the relationship of vegetation and socio-economic conditions, Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) and Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR) models were applied to characterize mean NDVI against three independent socio-economic variables, an urban land use ratio, Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and population density. The study results show that a considerable distinctive spatial variation exists in the relationship for each model. The GWR model has superior effects and higher precision than the OLS model at the census block group scale. So, it is more suitable to account for local effects and geographical variations. This study also indicates that unreasonable excessive urbanization, together with non-sustainable economic development, has a negative influence of vegetation vigor for some neighborhoods in Shanghai.

Automatic fission source convergence criteria for Monte Carlo criticality calculations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Shim, Hyung Jin; Kim, Chang Hyo

2005-01-01

The Monte Carlo criticality calculations for the multiplication factor and the power distribution in a nuclear system require knowledge of stationary or fundamental-mode fission source distribution (FSD) in the system. Because it is a priori unknown, so-called inactive cycle Monte Carlo (MC) runs are performed to determine it. The inactive cycle MC runs should be continued until the FSD converges to the stationary FSD. Obviously, if one stops them prematurely, the MC calculation results may have biases because the followup active cycles may be run with the non-stationary FSD. Conversely, if one performs the inactive cycle MC runs more than necessary, one is apt to waste computing time because inactive cycle MC runs are used to elicit the fundamental-mode FSD only. In the absence of suitable criteria for terminating the inactive cycle MC runs, one cannot but rely on empiricism in deciding how many inactive cycles one should conduct for a given problem. Depending on the problem, this may introduce biases into Monte Carlo estimates of the parameters one tries to calculate. The purpose of this paper is to present new fission source convergence criteria designed for the automatic termination of inactive cycle MC runs

High-intensity cycle interval training improves cycling and running performance in triathletes.

Science.gov (United States)

Etxebarria, Naroa; Anson, Judith M; Pyne, David B; Ferguson, Richard A

2014-01-01

Effective cycle training for triathlon is a challenge for coaches. We compared the effects of two variants of cycle high-intensity interval training (HIT) on triathlon-specific cycling and running. Fourteen moderately-trained male triathletes ([Formula: see text]O2peak 58.7 ± 8.1 mL kg(-1) min(-1); mean ± SD) completed on separate occasions a maximal incremental test ([Formula: see text]O2peak and maximal aerobic power), 16 × 20 s cycle sprints and a 1-h triathlon-specific cycle followed immediately by a 5 km run time trial. Participants were then pair-matched and assigned randomly to either a long high-intensity interval training (LONG) (6-8 × 5 min efforts) or short high-intensity interval training (SHORT) (9-11 × 10, 20 and 40 s efforts) HIT cycle training intervention. Six training sessions were completed over 3 weeks before participants repeated the baseline testing. Both groups had an ∼7% increase in [Formula: see text]O2peak (SHORT 7.3%, ±4.6%; mean, ±90% confidence limits; LONG 7.5%, ±1.7%). There was a moderate improvement in mean power for both the SHORT (10.3%, ±4.4%) and LONG (10.7%, ±6.8%) groups during the last eight 20-s sprints. There was a small to moderate decrease in heart rate, blood lactate and perceived exertion in both groups during the 1-h triathlon-specific cycling but only the LONG group had a substantial decrease in the subsequent 5-km run time (64, ±59 s). Moderately-trained triathletes should use both short and long high-intensity intervals to improve cycling physiology and performance. Longer 5-min intervals on the bike are more likely to benefit 5 km running performance.

Combined Turbine and Cycle Optimization for Organic Rankine Cycle Power Systems—Part A

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Meroni, Andrea; La Seta, Angelo; Andreasen, Jesper Graa

2016-01-01

Axial-flow turbines represent a well-established technology for a wide variety of power generation systems. Compactness, flexibility, reliability and high efficiency have been key factors for the extensive use of axial turbines in conventional power plants and, in the last decades, in organic...... Rankine cycle power systems. In this two-part paper, an overall cycle model and a model of an axial turbine were combined in order to provide a comprehensive preliminary design of the organic Rankine cycle unit, taking into account both cycle and turbine optimal designs. Part A presents the preliminary...

Waves of El Nino-southern Oscillation and Influenza Pandemics

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Olusegun Steven Ayodele Oluwole

2016-04-01

Full Text Available Influenza pandemics have occurred at irregular intervals for over 500 years, unlike seasonal influenza epidemics which occur annually. Although the risk factors are known, the basis for the timing of influenza pandemic waves are unknown. Coherence of peaks of El Niño and influenza pandemic in 2009–2010, however, suggests that both waves are coupled. This study was done to determine the relation of influenza pandemics to the peaks and waveforms of El Niño southern oscillation (ENSO. ENSO cycles from 1871–2015 which had El Niño phases were windowed from Multivariate El Niño Index. Influenza pandemic peaks were mapped to ENSO monthly time series. ENSO waveforms were compared graphically, and fitted to nonstationary cosinor models. Second order polynomial regression model was fitted to the peak and duration of El Niño. Agglomerative hierarchical cluster of ENSO waveforms was performed. All influenza pandemic peaks mapped to El Niño peaks, with lags of 0–5 months. ENSO waveforms during influenza pandemics share parameters of oscillation. Nonstationary cosinor models showed that ENSO cycles are complex waves. There was second order polynomial relationship between peak and duration of El Niños, p < 0.0001. ENSO waveforms clustered into four distinct groups. ENSO waveforms during influenza pandemics of 1889–1900, 1957–1958, and 1968–1969 linked closely. ENSO indices were significantly high from 7–16 months after onset of cycles, p < 0.0001. Surveillance for El Niño events to forecast periods of maximal transmission and survival of influenza A viruses is, therefore, crucial for public health control strategies.

Menstrual cycle pattern and fertility

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kolstad, Henrik A.; Bonde, Jens Peter; Hjøllund, Niels Henrik

1999-01-01

To characterize how the menstrual cycle pattern relates to fertility regardless of potential biases caused by inappropriate coital timing during the menstrual cycle or early embryonal loss.......To characterize how the menstrual cycle pattern relates to fertility regardless of potential biases caused by inappropriate coital timing during the menstrual cycle or early embryonal loss....

Transient vibration phenomena in deep mine hoisting cables. Part 1: Mathematical model

Science.gov (United States)

Kaczmarczyk, S.; Ostachowicz, W.

2003-04-01

The classical moving co-ordinate frame approach and Hamilton's principle are employed to derive a distributed-parameter mathematical model to investigate the dynamic behaviour of deep mine hoisting cables. This model describes the coupled lateral-longitudinal dynamic response of the cables in terms of non-linear partial differential equations that accommodate the non-stationary nature of the system. Subsequently, the Rayleigh-Ritz procedure is applied to formulate a discrete mathematical model. Consequently, a system of non-linear non-stationary coupled second order ordinary differential equations arises to govern the temporal behaviour of the cable system. This discrete model with quadratic and cubic non-linear terms describes the modal interactions between lateral oscillations of the catenary cable and longitudinal oscillations of the vertical rope. It is shown that the response of the catenary-vertical rope system may feature a number of resonance phenomena, including external, parametric and autoparametric resonances. The parameters of a typical deep mine winder are used to identify the depth locations of the resonance regions during the ascending cycles with various winding velocities.

Spatio-temporal structure and cycle to cycle variations of an in-cylinder tumbling flow

Science.gov (United States)

Voisine, M.; Thomas, L.; Borée, J.; Rey, P.

2011-05-01

The aim of this paper is to make use of PIV and high-speed PIV in a research engine of moderate tumbling ratio in order to analyze both the spatial structure of the flow and its temporal evolution during series of consecutive cycles. Appropriate analyzing tools are introduced, and four different points are addressed: (1) the chain of events driving the generation of the three-dimensional mean tumbling motion is investigated; (2) a Lagrangian analysis of the roll-up of the tumbling jet in individual cycles demonstrates a strong cycle to cycle variation during the compression phase (the rms of the position of the jet front being approximately 10% of the piston stroke); (3) focussing on the "breakdown" phase, phase invariant proper orthogonal decomposition enables us to distinguish cycles according to their structure near top dead center (TDC). We show that when the coherent energy of the flow is conserved, there is no increase in the fluctuating kinetic energy; (4) finally, the phase-averaged Reynolds stresses is decomposed into a contribution of the in-cycle coherence and the turbulence carried by the flow states. Approximately 30% of the fluctuating kinetic energy is due to cycle to cycle fluctuations in this chamber near TDC.

Nutrient cycling strategies.

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Breemen, van N.

1995-01-01

This paper briefly reviews pathways by which plants can influence the nutrient cycle, and thereby the nutrient supply of themselves and of their competitors. Higher or lower internal nutrient use efficiency positively feeds back into the nutrient cycle, and helps to increase or decrease soil

Universal cycle periods

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Groot, de E.A. (Bert); Franses, P.H.P.H.

2009-01-01

We present a meta-analysis of cycles in historical economic data. The literature on stochastic and deterministic cycles in variables such as the consumer price index, employment, interest rates, commodity prices, and GDP is huge and scattered, but our meta-analysis reveals various communalities. Our