WorldWideScience

Sample records for nonroad model growth

  1. "Peer Review: Nonroad (NR) Updates to Population Growth, Compression Ignition (CI) Criteria, Toxic Emission Factors and Speciation Profiles"

    Science.gov (United States)

    This report focuses on the methodology for estimating growth in NR engine populations as used in the MOVES201X-NONROAD emission inventory model. MOVES NR growth rates start with base year engine populations and estimate growth in the populations of NR engines, while applying cons...

  2. 75 FR 11880 - California State Nonroad Engine Pollution Control Standards; California Nonroad Compression...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-03-12

    ... ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY [AMS-FRL-9126-4] California State Nonroad Engine Pollution Control... to the control of emissions from either of the following new nonroad engines or nonroad vehicles... other requirements relating to emissions control of new engines not listed under section 209(e)(1). The...

  3. MODELLING OF NON-ROAD TRANSIENT CYCLE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Martin Kotus

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available The paper describes the modeling of NRTC (Non-Road Transient Cycle test procedure based on previously measured characteristics of fuel consumption, carbon monoxide (CO, carbon dioxide (CO2, hydrocarbons (HC, nitrogen oxides (NOx and particulates (PM production. It makes possible to compare the current technical condition of an internal combustion engine of an agricultural tractor with its previous state or other tractor’s engine. Based on measured characteristics, it is also possible to model any other cycle without further measurements (NRSC test procedure, cycle for specific conditions – mountain tractor, etc.. The result may thus contribute to improving the environment by reducing the production of harmful substances emitted into the air and save money due to reduced fuel consumption.

  4. 77 FR 50500 - California State Nonroad Engine Pollution Control Standards; California Nonroad Compression...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-08-21

    ... ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY [AMS-FRL 9716-8] California State Nonroad Engine Pollution Control Standards; California Nonroad Compression Ignition Engines--In-Use Fleets; Authorization Request... emissions control of new engines not listed under section 209(e)(1). The section 209(e) rule and its...

  5. Energy efficient non-road hybrid electric vehicles advanced modeling and control

    CERN Document Server

    Unger, Johannes; Jakubek, Stefan

    2016-01-01

    Analyzing the main problems in the real-time control of parallel hybrid electric powertrains in non-road applications, which work in continuous high dynamic operation, this book gives practical insight in to how to maximize the energetic efficiency and drivability of such powertrains. The book addresses an energy management control structure, which considers all constraints of the physical powertrain and uses novel methodologies for the prediction of the future load requirements to optimize the controller output in terms of an entire work cycle of a non-road vehicle. The load prediction includes a methodology for short term loads as well as for an entire load cycle by means of a cycle detection. A maximization of the energetic efficiency can so be achieved, which is simultaneously a reduction in fuel consumption and exhaust emissions. Readers will gain a deep insight into the necessary topics to be considered in designing an energy and battery management system for non-road vehicles and that only a combinatio...

  6. Combining Off-the-Job Productivity Regression Model with EPA’s NONROAD Model in Estimating CO2 Emissions from Bulldozer

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Apif M. Hajji

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available Heavy duty diesel (HDD construction equipment which includes bulldozer is important in infrastructure development. This equipment consumes large amount of diesel fuel and emits high level of carbon dioxide (CO2. The total emissions are dependent upon the fuel use, and the fuel use is dependent upon the productivity of the equipment. This paper proposes a methodology and tool for estimating CO2 emissions from bulldozer based on the productivity rate. The methodology is formulated by using the result of multiple linear regressions (MLR of CAT’s data for obtaining the productivity model and combined with the EPA’s NONROAD model. The emission factors from NONROAD model were used to quantify the CO2 emissions. To display the function of the model, a case study and sensitivity analysis for a bulldozer’s activity is also presented. MLR results indicate that the productivity model generated from CAT’s data can be used as the basis for quantifying the total CO2 emissions for an earthwork activity.

  7. 2005 nonroad engine fleet characterization in the Canadian Lower Fraser Valley : final report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mak, J.; Chan, N.; Campbell, K.; Preston, K.; Bolechowsky, K.

    2007-12-01

    Metro Vancouver conducts an emission inventory for the Lower Fraser Valley on a five year basis. This report presented an estimate of the nonroad engine fleet population and emissions in the Canadian portion of the Lower Fraser Valley (CLFV). The nonroad engine fleet includes internal combustion engines of different fuel types used in mobile equipment such as on-road vehicles, aircraft, locomotives and ocean-going marine vessels. Some examples of nonroad equipment that were estimated included agricultural tractors; airport ground equipment; forklifts; excavators; generator sets; lawn mowers; railroad maintenance equipment; pleasure boats; and off-road motorcycles. The purpose of the study was to assist Metro Vancouver and other levels of government in determining what progress has been made in improving air quality, as well as the effect of policies and regulations on the environment in terms of nonroad vehicles. The report presented the objectives of the nonroad engine fleet characterization project which were to review the current data on nonroad engine populations and associated information, and confirm or improve the data through appropriate means; prepare estimates of 2005 emissions in the CLFV based on the revised engine counts using the United States Environmental Protection Agency's nonroad 2005 model; and prepare backcasts and forecasts of the 2005 nonroad engine emission estimates for 1990 to 2030 in five-year increments. Results were presented and analysed into the following 9 equipment type categories: agricultural, airport ground support, commercial, construction, industrial, lawn and garden, railway maintenance, recreational marine and recreational off-road vehicle. Four fuel types were considered for each type of equipment, notably gasoline, diesel, liquefied petroleum gases and compressed natural gas. The report described the methodologies and sources and presented the equipment population data. Emission results for carbon monoxide, nitrogen oxides

  8. 78 FR 721 - California State Nonroad Engine Pollution Control Standards; Transport Refrigeration Units...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-01-04

    ... ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY California State Nonroad Engine Pollution Control Standards... requirements related to the control of emissions from non-new nonroad engines or vehicles. Section 209(e)(2... requirements relating to the control of emissions from new nonroad spark-ignition engines smaller than 50...

  9. EPA Nonregulatory Nonroad Duty Cycles

    Science.gov (United States)

    EPA nonregulatory, nonroad duty cycles for equipment such as agricultural tractors, backhoe loaders,crawlers tractors, excavators, arc welding skid steer loaders, and wheel loaders. Also,test procedures, laboratory methods, and emissions for this equipmen

  10. 76 FR 24872 - California State Nonroad Engine and Vehicle Pollution Control Standards; Authorization of Tier II...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-05-03

    ... Pollution Control Standards; Authorization of Tier II Marine Inboard/Sterndrive Spark Ignition Engine... requirement relating to the control of emissions for certain new nonroad engines or vehicles.\\1\\ Section 209(e... control of emissions from either of the following new nonroad engines or nonroad vehicles subject to...

  11. 40 CFR Appendix A to Subpart F of... - Sampling Plans for Selective Enforcement Auditing of Nonroad Engines

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... Enforcement Auditing of Nonroad Engines A Appendix A to Subpart F of Part 89 Protection of Environment... NONROAD COMPRESSION-IGNITION ENGINES Selective Enforcement Auditing Pt. 89, Subpt. F, App. A Appendix A to Subpart F of Part 89—Sampling Plans for Selective Enforcement Auditing of Nonroad Engines Table 1—Sampling...

  12. 78 FR 724 - California State Nonroad Engine Pollution Control Standards; Off-Highway Recreational Vehicles...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-01-04

    ... ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY [FRL-9766-2] California State Nonroad Engine Pollution Control...\\ California State Nonroad Engine and Vehicle Pollution Control Standards; Authorization of State Standards... standards and other requirements relating to the control of emissions from such vehicles or engines if...

  13. 76 FR 7194 - California State Nonroad Engine Pollution Control Standards; Request for Authorization of...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-02-09

    ... ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY [FRL-9264-3] California State Nonroad Engine Pollution Control... Toxic Control Measure (ATCM) for in-use portable diesel-fueled engines 50 brake-horsepower (hp) and... within-the-scope confirmation. \\2\\ This includes: California State Nonroad Engine Pollution Control...

  14. 40 CFR 80.522 - May used motor oil be dispensed into diesel motor vehicles or nonroad diesel engines?

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... diesel motor vehicles or nonroad diesel engines? 80.522 Section 80.522 Protection of Environment... vehicles or nonroad diesel engines? No person may introduce used motor oil, or used motor oil blended with... later nonroad diesel engines (not including locomotive or marine diesel engines), unless both of the...

  15. Mitigation of PAH and nitro-PAH emissions from nonroad diesel engines.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Z Gerald; Wall, John C; Ottinger, Nathan A; McGuffin, Dana

    2015-03-17

    More stringent emission requirements for nonroad diesel engines introduced with U.S. Tier 4 Final and Euro Stage IV and V regulations have spurred the development of exhaust aftertreatment technologies. In this study, several aftertreatment configurations consisting of diesel oxidation catalysts (DOC), diesel particulate filters (DPF), Cu zeolite-, and vanadium-based selective catalytic reduction (SCR) catalysts, and ammonia oxidation (AMOX) catalysts are evaluated using both Nonroad Transient (NRTC) and Steady (8-mode NRSC) Cycles in order to understand both component and system-level effects of diesel aftertreatment on emissions of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAH) and their nitrated derivatives (nitro-PAH). Emissions are reported for four configurations including engine-out, DOC+CuZ-SCR+AMOX, V-SCR+AMOX, and DOC+DPF+CuZ-SCR+AMOX. Mechanisms responsible for the reduction, and, in some cases, the formation of PAH and nitro-PAH compounds are discussed in detail, and suggestions are provided to minimize the formation of nitro-PAH compounds through aftertreatment design optimizations. Potency equivalency factors (PEFs) developed by the California Environmental Protection Agency are then applied to determine the impact of aftertreatment on PAH-derived exhaust toxicity. Finally, a comprehensive set of exhaust emissions including criteria pollutants, NO2, total hydrocarbons (THC), n-alkanes, branched alkanes, saturated cycloalkanes, aromatics, aldehydes, hopanes and steranes, and metals is provided, and the overall efficacy of the aftertreatment configurations is described. This detailed summary of emissions from a current nonroad diesel engine equipped with advanced aftertreatment can be used to more accurately model the impact of anthropogenic emissions on the atmosphere.

  16. 40 CFR Appendix A to Subpart A of... - State Regulation of Nonroad Internal Combustion Engines

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... 40 Protection of Environment 20 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false State Regulation of Nonroad Internal Combustion Engines A Appendix A to Subpart A of Part 89 Protection of Environment ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION... Nonroad Internal Combustion Engines This appendix sets forth the Environmental Protection Agency's (EPA's...

  17. 77 FR 50502 - California State Nonroad Engine Pollution Control Standards; In-Use Heavy-Duty Vehicles (As...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-08-21

    ... ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY [FRL 9716-9] California State Nonroad Engine Pollution Control Standards; In- Use Heavy-Duty Vehicles (As Applicable to Yard Trucks and Two-Engine Sweepers); Opportunity... control of emissions from new nonroad engines which are used in construction equipment or vehicles or used...

  18. 75 FR 37310 - Control of Emissions From New and In-Use Nonroad Compression-Ignition Engines

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-06-29

    ... ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY 40 CFR Part 1039 Control of Emissions From New and In-Use Nonroad Compression- Ignition Engines CFR Correction In Title 40 of the Code of Federal Regulations, Part 1000 to End... for my engines in model year 2014 and earlier? * * * * * Table 2 of Sec. 1039.102--Interim Tier 4...

  19. Concepts to meet non-road stage IV / Tier 4 emission legislation; Konzepte fuer die Emissionsgesetzgebung. Non-Road Stage IV / Tier 4

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cartus, T.; Herrmuth, H.; Stein, G. [AVL List GmbH, Graz (Austria); Scherm, P. [Euromot - European Association of Internal Combustion Engine Mfrs., Frankfurt am Main (Germany)

    2007-12-15

    By December 2007, the EC will have to submit a new proposal for Stage IV emissions limits for Non-Road Mobile Machinery. Industry is committed to contributing to this process and has asked AVL to carry out a study as a neutral engineering company. The main topics of this study are described in this article. (orig.)

  20. 40 CFR Appendix A to Subpart F of... - Sampling Plans for Selective Enforcement Auditing of Small Nonroad Engines

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... Enforcement Auditing of Small Nonroad Engines A Appendix A to Subpart F of Part 90 Protection of Environment...-IGNITION ENGINES AT OR BELOW 19 KILOWATTS Selective Enforcement Auditing Pt. 90, Subpt. F, App. A Appendix A to Subpart F of Part 90—Sampling Plans for Selective Enforcement Auditing of Small Nonroad Engines...

  1. Speciation Profiles and Toxic Emission Factors for Nonroad Engines: DRAFT REPORT

    Science.gov (United States)

    This document details the research and development behind how MOVES2014a estimates air toxic emissions for nonroad engines and equipment run on conventional gasoline without ethanol (E0) and gasoline blended with 10% ethanol (E10) as well as diesel fuel, compressed natural gas (C...

  2. Legal regulations of restrictions of air pollution made by non-road mobile machinery-the case study for Europe: a review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Waluś, Konrad J; Warguła, Łukasz; Krawiec, Piotr; Adamiec, Jarosław M

    2018-02-01

    The high awareness of intensification and frequency of smog phenomenon all over the world in XXI age makes for detailed analyses of the reasons of its formation and prevention. The governments of the developed countries and conscious of real hazards, including many European countries, aim to restrict the emission of harmful gases. In literature, we can find the discussions on the influence of this phenomenon on the health and life of inhabitants of contaminated areas. Some elaborations of prognostic models, descriptions of pollution sources, the manner of their restriction, and the analysis of causal-consecutive correlation are also popular. The influence of pollutions resulting from the operation of vehicles, planes, and the industry are well described. However, every machine and device which is driven with a combustion engine has the effect on the general level of anthropogenic pollutions. These drives are subject of different regulations limiting their emission for service conditions and applications. One of the groups of such machines described in European and American regulations is non-road mobile machinery. The aim of this paper is the presentation of the problem of weak analysis and application of engineering and technological tools for machinery drive emission, despite of many publications on hazards and problems of emission. These machines have the influence on both the increase of global contamination and the machine users. The regulations of the European Union take into consideration the generated hazards and restrict the emission of machine exhaust gases by approval tests-these regulations are continually improved, and the effects of these works are new emission limits in 2019. However, these activities seem to be liberal as opposed to limits of the emission for passenger and goods vehicles where the technological development of the construction is greater and the regulations are the most rigorous. During the analysis of the development of non-road

  3. 76 FR 7196 - California State Nonroad Engine Pollution Control Standards; Request for Authorization of...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-02-09

    ... ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY [FRL-9264-4] California State Nonroad Engine Pollution Control Standards; Request for Authorization of Airborne Toxic Control Measure for In-Use Portable Diesel Engines 50... for In-Use Strategies to Control Emissions from Diesel Engines,'' 13 California Code of Regulations...

  4. 78 FR 50412 - California State Nonroad Engine Pollution Control Standards; Amendments to Spark Ignition Marine...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-08-19

    ... Engine Pollution Control Standards; Amendments to Spark Ignition Marine Engine and Boat Regulations... emission standards; enhanced evaporative emission controls for high performance sterndrive/inboard engines... requirement relating to the control of emissions from new nonroad engines which are used in construction...

  5. 76 FR 38155 - California State Nonroad Engine Pollution Control Standards; Ocean-Going Vessels At-Berth in...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-06-29

    ... ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY [FRL-9426-9] California State Nonroad Engine Pollution Control... toxic control measures for auxiliary diesel engines operated on ocean-going vessels at-berth in... control measures (ATCM) for auxiliary diesel engines operated on ocean-going vessels at-berth in...

  6. 75 FR 43975 - California State Motor Vehicle and Nonroad Engine Pollution Control Standards; Truck Idling...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-27

    ... standards) for the control of emissions from new motor vehicles or new motor vehicle engines prior to March... approval relating to the control of emissions from any new motor vehicle or new motor vehicle engine as... relating to the control of emissions from new nonroad spark-ignition engines smaller than 50 horsepower...

  7. Effects of transient conditions on exhaust emissions from two non-road diesel engines

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lindgren, M.; Hansson, P.-A.

    2004-01-01

    Growing interest in quantifying and reducing the amount of engine emissions of carbon monoxide, hydrocarbons, and nitrogen oxides loading the environment has led to increasingly tighter environmental regulations. However, current non-road emission standards are performed according to a steady-state test cycle, which does not include transient effects and thus underestimates the amount of emissions produced in real use of the engine. This study quantifies the effects of transients in engine speed and torque on the fuel consumption and emissions from two diesel engines intended for non-road mobile machinery. Fuel consumption and emissions from the engines were measured in an engine dynamometer during various transient load conditions. The results showed that during fast transients, the measured fuel consumption was up to twice as high as the corresponding steady-state load conditions. The effects of transients on emissions of nitrogen oxides were even greater, as were the effects of transient load increase with increasing transient conditions i. e. rate of change. The results showed that the effect of transients on fuel consumption and emissions were also dependent on the type of diesel injection pump and the engine equipment used. Furthermore, the results indicated that the air/fuel ratio was an important contributor to the emission formation process during transient loads. (Author)

  8. 78 FR 31536 - California State Nonroad Engine Pollution Control Standards; In-Use Heavy Duty Vehicles (as...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-05-24

    ... immediately attempt to regulate new farm and construction equipment and that under any compliance pathway a... from new nonroad engines which are used in construction equipment or vehicles or used in farm equipment... with section 202(a) if: (1) There is inadequate lead time to permit the development of the necessary...

  9. Test/QA plan for the verification testing of selective catalytic reduction control technologies for highway, nonroad use heavy-duty diesel engines

    Science.gov (United States)

    This ETV test/QA plan for heavy-duty diesel engine testing at the Southwest Research Institute’s Department of Emissions Research (DER) describes how the Federal Test Procedure (FTP), as listed in 40 CFR Part 86 for highway engines and 40 CFR Part 89 for nonroad engines, will be ...

  10. A novel methodology for non-linear system identification of battery cells used in non-road hybrid electric vehicles

    Science.gov (United States)

    Unger, Johannes; Hametner, Christoph; Jakubek, Stefan; Quasthoff, Marcus

    2014-12-01

    An accurate state of charge (SoC) estimation of a traction battery in hybrid electric non-road vehicles, which possess higher dynamics and power densities than on-road vehicles, requires a precise battery cell terminal voltage model. This paper presents a novel methodology for non-linear system identification of battery cells to obtain precise battery models. The methodology comprises the architecture of local model networks (LMN) and optimal model based design of experiments (DoE). Three main novelties are proposed: 1) Optimal model based DoE, which aims to high dynamically excite the battery cells at load ranges frequently used in operation. 2) The integration of corresponding inputs in the LMN to regard the non-linearities SoC, relaxation, hysteresis as well as temperature effects. 3) Enhancements to the local linear model tree (LOLIMOT) construction algorithm, to achieve a physical appropriate interpretation of the LMN. The framework is applicable for different battery cell chemistries and different temperatures, and is real time capable, which is shown on an industrial PC. The accuracy of the obtained non-linear battery model is demonstrated on cells with different chemistries and temperatures. The results show significant improvement due to optimal experiment design and integration of the battery non-linearities within the LMN structure.

  11. Test/QA plan for the verification testing of diesel exhaust catalysts, particulate filters and engine modification control technologies for highway and nonroad use diesel engines

    Science.gov (United States)

    This ETV test/QA plan for heavy-duty diesel engine testing at the Southwest Research Institute’s Department of Emissions Research (DER) describes how the Federal Test Procedure (FTP), as listed in 40 CFR Part 86 for highway engines and 40 CFR Part 89 for nonroad engines, will be ...

  12. Global emission projections for the transportation sector using dynamic technology modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yan, F.; Winijkul, E.; Streets, D. G.; Lu, Z.; Bond, T. C.; Zhang, Y.

    2014-06-01

    In this study, global emissions of gases and particles from the transportation sector are projected from the year 2010 to 2050. The Speciated Pollutant Emission Wizard (SPEW)-Trend model, a dynamic model that links the emitter population to its emission characteristics, is used to project emissions from on-road vehicles and non-road engines. Unlike previous models of global emission estimates, SPEW-Trend incorporates considerable detail on the technology stock and builds explicit relationships between socioeconomic drivers and technological changes, such that the vehicle fleet and the vehicle technology shares change dynamically in response to economic development. Emissions from shipping, aviation, and rail are estimated based on other studies so that the final results encompass the entire transportation sector. The emission projections are driven by four commonly-used IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) scenarios (A1B, A2, B1, and B2). With global fossil-fuel use (oil and coal) in the transportation sector in the range of 128-171 EJ across the four scenarios, global emissions are projected to be 101-138 Tg of carbon monoxide (CO), 44-54 Tg of nitrogen oxides (NOx), 14-18 Tg of non-methane total hydrocarbons (THC), and 3.6-4.4 Tg of particulate matter (PM) in the year 2030. At the global level, a common feature of the emission scenarios is a projected decline in emissions during the first one or two decades (2010-2030), because the effects of stringent emission standards offset the growth in fuel use. Emissions increase slightly in some scenarios after 2030, because of the fast growth of on-road vehicles with lax or no emission standards in Africa and increasing emissions from non-road gasoline engines and shipping. On-road vehicles and non-road engines contribute the most to global CO and THC emissions, while on-road vehicles and shipping contribute the most to NOx and PM emissions. At the regional level, Latin America and East Asia are the two

  13. Modeling Math Growth Trajectory--An Application of Conventional Growth Curve Model and Growth Mixture Model to ECLS K-5 Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lu, Yi

    2016-01-01

    To model students' math growth trajectory, three conventional growth curve models and three growth mixture models are applied to the Early Childhood Longitudinal Study Kindergarten-Fifth grade (ECLS K-5) dataset in this study. The results of conventional growth curve model show gender differences on math IRT scores. When holding socio-economic…

  14. Fuel Effects on Emissions From Non-Road Engines

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Murtonen, T.; Nylund, N.

    2003-10-15

    The objective of this project was to study how fuel quality affects the exhaust emissions from different kinds of non-road engines. The project was divided into two parts: emissions from small gasoline engines and emissions from diesel engines. The measured small engines were a 2-stroke chainsaw engine, and a 4-stroke OHV engine, which could be used in different applications. Measurements were done with three different fuels, with and without catalyst. Also a comparison between biodegradable vs. conventional lubrication oil was done with the 2-stroke engine. Measurements were done according to ISO8178 standard. The results clearly demonstrate that using a good quality fuel (e.g. low sulphur, low aromatics) and a catalyst gives the best outcome in overall emission levels from these small engines. In the second part two different diesel engines were tested with five different fuels. Two of the fuels were biodiesel blends. The engines were chosen to represent old and new engine technology. The old engine (MY 1985) was produced before EU emission regulations were in place, and the new engine fulfilled the current EU Stage 2 emission limits. These measurements were also done according to the ISO8178 standard. With the new engine comparison with and without oxidation catalyst was done using two fuels. The results in general are similar compared to the results from the small gasoline engines: fuel quality has an effect on the emissions and when combining a good quality fuel (e.g. low sulphur, low aromatics) and an oxidation catalyst the emission levels are significantly reduced. Also some unregulated emission measurements were done but those results are not included to this report.

  15. The use of biodiesel blends on a non-road generator and its impacts on ozone formation potentials based on carbonyl emissions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chai, Ming; Lu, Mingming; Liang, Fuyan; Tzillah, Aisha; Dendramis, Nancy; Watson, Libya

    2013-01-01

    In this study, emissions of carbonyl compounds from the use B50 and B100 were measured with a non-road diesel generator. A total of 25 carbonyl compounds were identified in the exhaust, including 10 with laboratory-synthesized standards. Formaldehyde, acetaldehyde, and acrolein were found as the most abundant carbonyl compounds emitted for both diesel and biodiesel. The sulphur content of diesel fuels and the source of biodiesel fuels were not found to have a significant impact on the emission of carbonyl compounds. The overall maximum incremental reactivity (MIR) was the highest at 0 kW and slightly increased from 25 to 75 kW. The MIR of B100 was the highest, followed by diesel and B50, which is consistent with the emission rates of total carbonyl compounds. This suggests that the use of biodiesel blends may be more beneficial to the environment than using pure biodiesel. -- Highlights: •Carbonyl compound emission from biodiesel blends combustion on a non-road generator. •25 compounds were identified, including 10 by laboratory-synthesized standards. •Sources of biodiesel have insignificant impacts on carbonyl compounds emission. •Sulphur contents have insignificant impacts on carbonyl compounds emission. •MIR of emitted carbonyls decreases in the following order: B100, diesel, B50. -- The study found that B50 resulted in lower total carbonyl emission rates and ozone formation potential resultant from these compounds, whereas both increased with B100

  16. Urban tree growth modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    E. Gregory McPherson; Paula J. Peper

    2012-01-01

    This paper describes three long-term tree growth studies conducted to evaluate tree performance because repeated measurements of the same trees produce critical data for growth model calibration and validation. Several empirical and process-based approaches to modeling tree growth are reviewed. Modeling is more advanced in the fields of forestry and...

  17. Lévy-based growth models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jónsdóttir, Kristjana Ýr; Schmiegel, Jürgen; Jensen, Eva Bjørn Vedel

    2008-01-01

    In the present paper, we give a condensed review, for the nonspecialist reader, of a new modelling framework for spatio-temporal processes, based on Lévy theory. We show the potential of the approach in stochastic geometry and spatial statistics by studying Lévy-based growth modelling of planar o...... objects. The growth models considered are spatio-temporal stochastic processes on the circle. As a by product, flexible new models for space–time covariance functions on the circle are provided. An application of the Lévy-based growth models to tumour growth is discussed....

  18. Effect of biodiesel fuel on "real-world", nonroad heavy duty diesel engine particulate matter emissions, composition and cytotoxicity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martin, Nathan; Lombard, Melissa; Jensen, Kirk R; Kelley, Patrick; Pratt, Tara; Traviss, Nora

    2017-05-15

    Biodiesel is regarded by many as a "greener" alternative fuel to petroleum diesel with potentially lower health risk. However, recent studies examining biodiesel particulate matter (PM) characteristics and health effects are contradictive, and typically utilize PM generated by passenger car engines in laboratory settings. There is a critical need to analyze diesel and biodiesel PM generated in a "real-world" setting where heavy duty-diesel (HDD) engines and commercially purchased fuel are utilized. This study compares the mass concentrations, chemical composition and cytotoxicity of real-world PM from combustion of both petroleum diesel and a waste grease 20% biodiesel blend (B20) at a community recycling center operating HDD nonroad equipment. PM was analyzed for metals, elemental/organic carbon (EC/OC), polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs), and nitro-polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (N-PAHs). Cytotoxicity in a human lung epithelial cell line (BEAS-2B) following 24h exposure to the real-world particles was also evaluated. On average, higher concentrations for both EC and OC were measured in diesel PM. B20 PM contained significantly higher levels of Cu and Mo whereas diesel PM contained significantly higher concentrations of Pb. Principal component analysis determined Mo, Cu, and Ni were the metals with the greatest loading factor, suggesting a unique pattern related to the B20 fuel source. Total PAH concentration during diesel fuel use was 1.9 times higher than during B20 operations; however, total N-PAH concentration was 3.3 times higher during B20 use. Diesel PM cytotoxicity was 8.5 times higher than B20 PM (pengine sources of metals, PAH and N-PAH species, comparing tailpipe PM vs. PM collected inside the equipment cabin. Results suggest PM generated from burning petroleum diesel in nonroad engines may be more harmful to human health, but the links between exposure, composition and toxicity are not straightforward. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights

  19. Towards Sustainable Growth Business Models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kamp-Roelands, N.; Balkenende, J.P.; Van Ommen, P.

    2012-03-15

    The Dutch Sustainable Growth Coalition (DSGC) has the following objectives: The DSGC aims to pro-actively drive sustainable growth business models along three lines: (1) Shape. DSGC member companies aim to connect economic profitability with environmental and social progress on the basis of integrated sustainable growth business models; (2) Share. DSGC member companies aim for joint advocacy of sustainable growth business models both internationally and nationally; and (3) Stimulate. DSGC member companies aim to stimulate and influence the policy debate on enabling sustainable growth - with a view to finding solutions to the environmental and social challenges we are facing. This is their first report. The vision, actions and mission of DSGC are documented in the Manifesto in Chapter 2 of this publication. Chapter 3 contains an overview of key features of an integrated sustainable growth business model and the roadmap towards such a model. In Chapter 4, project examples of DSGC members are presented, providing insight into the hands-on reality of implementing the good practices. Chapter 5 offers an overview of how the Netherlands provides an enabling environment for sustainable growth business models. Chapter 6 offers the key conclusions.

  20. Nonlinear Growth Models as Measurement Models: A Second-Order Growth Curve Model for Measuring Potential.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McNeish, Daniel; Dumas, Denis

    2017-01-01

    Recent methodological work has highlighted the promise of nonlinear growth models for addressing substantive questions in the behavioral sciences. In this article, we outline a second-order nonlinear growth model in order to measure a critical notion in development and education: potential. Here, potential is conceptualized as having three components-ability, capacity, and availability-where ability is the amount of skill a student is estimated to have at a given timepoint, capacity is the maximum amount of ability a student is predicted to be able to develop asymptotically, and availability is the difference between capacity and ability at any particular timepoint. We argue that single timepoint measures are typically insufficient for discerning information about potential, and we therefore describe a general framework that incorporates a growth model into the measurement model to capture these three components. Then, we provide an illustrative example using the public-use Early Childhood Longitudinal Study-Kindergarten data set using a Michaelis-Menten growth function (reparameterized from its common application in biochemistry) to demonstrate our proposed model as applied to measuring potential within an educational context. The advantage of this approach compared to currently utilized methods is discussed as are future directions and limitations.

  1. MOVES (MOTOR VEHICLE EMISSION SIMULATOR) MODEL ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    A computer model, intended to eventually replace the MOBILE model and to incorporate the NONROAD model, that will provide the ability to estimate criteria and toxic air pollutant emission factors and emission inventories that are specific to the areas and time periods of interest, at scales ranging from local to national. Development of a new emission factor and inventory model for mobile source emissions. The model will be used by air pollution modelers within EPA, and at the State and local levels.

  2. Data structure for estimating emissions from non-road sources

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sorenson, S C; Kalivoda, M; Vacarro, R; Trozzi, C; Samaras, Z; Lewis, C A

    1997-03-01

    The work described in the following is a portion of the MEET project (Methodologies for Estimation Air Pollutant Emissions from Transport). The overall goal of the MEET project is to consolidate and present methodologies which can be used to estimate air pollutant emissions from various types of traffic sources. One of the goals of MEET is to provide methodologies to be used in the COMMUTE project also funded by DG VII. COMMUTE is developing computer software which can be used to provide emissions inventories on the European scale. Although COMMUTE is viewed as a prime user of the information generated in MEET, the MEET results are intended to be used in a broader area, and on both smaller and larger spatial scales. The methodologies and data presented will be useful for planners on a more local scale than a national or continental basis. While most attention in previous years has been concentrated on emissions from road transport, it has become increasingly apparent in later years that the so-called off road transportation contributes significantly to the emission of air pollutants. The three most common off-road traffic modes are Air Traffic, Rail Traffic, and Ship or Marine traffic. In the following, the basic structure of the methods for estimating the emissions from these sectors will be given and of the input and output data associated with these calculations. The structures will of necessity be different for the different types of traffic. The data structures in the following reflect these variations and uncertainties. In some instances alternative approaches to emissions estimation will be suggested. The user must evaluate the amount and reliability of available data for the application at hand, and select the method which would be expected to give the highest accuracy. In any event, a large amount of uncertainty is inherent in the estimation of emissions from the non-road traffic sources, particularly those involving rail and maritime transport. (EG)

  3. Stochastic models for tumoral growth

    Science.gov (United States)

    Escudero, Carlos

    2006-02-01

    Strong experimental evidence has indicated that tumor growth belongs to the molecular beam epitaxy universality class. This type of growth is characterized by the constraint of cell proliferation to the tumor border and the surface diffusion of cells at the growing edge. Tumor growth is thus conceived as a competition for space between the tumor and the host, and cell diffusion at the tumor border is an optimal strategy adopted for minimizing the pressure and helping tumor development. Two stochastic partial differential equations are reported in this paper in order to correctly model the physical properties of tumoral growth in (1+1) and (2+1) dimensions. The advantage of these models is that they reproduce the correct geometry of the tumor and are defined in terms of polar variables. An analysis of these models allows us to quantitatively estimate the response of the tumor to an unfavorable perturbation during growth.

  4. Latent Growth and Dynamic Structural Equation Models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grimm, Kevin J; Ram, Nilam

    2018-05-07

    Latent growth models make up a class of methods to study within-person change-how it progresses, how it differs across individuals, what are its determinants, and what are its consequences. Latent growth methods have been applied in many domains to examine average and differential responses to interventions and treatments. In this review, we introduce the growth modeling approach to studying change by presenting different models of change and interpretations of their model parameters. We then apply these methods to examining sex differences in the development of binge drinking behavior through adolescence and into adulthood. Advances in growth modeling methods are then discussed and include inherently nonlinear growth models, derivative specification of growth models, and latent change score models to study stochastic change processes. We conclude with relevant design issues of longitudinal studies and considerations for the analysis of longitudinal data.

  5. Testing mechanistic models of growth in insects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maino, James L; Kearney, Michael R

    2015-11-22

    Insects are typified by their small size, large numbers, impressive reproductive output and rapid growth. However, insect growth is not simply rapid; rather, insects follow a qualitatively distinct trajectory to many other animals. Here we present a mechanistic growth model for insects and show that increasing specific assimilation during the growth phase can explain the near-exponential growth trajectory of insects. The presented model is tested against growth data on 50 insects, and compared against other mechanistic growth models. Unlike the other mechanistic models, our growth model predicts energy reserves per biomass to increase with age, which implies a higher production efficiency and energy density of biomass in later instars. These predictions are tested against data compiled from the literature whereby it is confirmed that insects increase their production efficiency (by 24 percentage points) and energy density (by 4 J mg(-1)) between hatching and the attainment of full size. The model suggests that insects achieve greater production efficiencies and enhanced growth rates by increasing specific assimilation and increasing energy reserves per biomass, which are less costly to maintain than structural biomass. Our findings illustrate how the explanatory and predictive power of mechanistic growth models comes from their grounding in underlying biological processes. © 2015 The Author(s).

  6. Off-Highway Gasoline Consuption Estimation Models Used in the Federal Highway Administration Attribution Process: 2008 Updates

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hwang, Ho-Ling [ORNL; Davis, Stacy Cagle [ORNL

    2009-12-01

    This report is designed to document the analysis process and estimation models currently used by the Federal Highway Administration (FHWA) to estimate the off-highway gasoline consumption and public sector fuel consumption. An overview of the entire FHWA attribution process is provided along with specifics related to the latest update (2008) on the Off-Highway Gasoline Use Model and the Public Use of Gasoline Model. The Off-Highway Gasoline Use Model is made up of five individual modules, one for each of the off-highway categories: agricultural, industrial and commercial, construction, aviation, and marine. This 2008 update of the off-highway models was the second major update (the first model update was conducted during 2002-2003) after they were originally developed in mid-1990. The agricultural model methodology, specifically, underwent a significant revision because of changes in data availability since 2003. Some revision to the model was necessary due to removal of certain data elements used in the original estimation method. The revised agricultural model also made use of some newly available information, published by the data source agency in recent years. The other model methodologies were not drastically changed, though many data elements were updated to improve the accuracy of these models. Note that components in the Public Use of Gasoline Model were not updated in 2008. A major challenge in updating estimation methods applied by the public-use model is that they would have to rely on significant new data collection efforts. In addition, due to resource limitation, several components of the models (both off-highway and public-us models) that utilized regression modeling approaches were not recalibrated under the 2008 study. An investigation of the Environmental Protection Agency's NONROAD2005 model was also carried out under the 2008 model update. Results generated from the NONROAD2005 model were analyzed, examined, and compared, to the extent that

  7. Layered growth model and epitaxial growth structures for SiCAlN alloys

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Liu Zhaoqing; Ni Jun; Su Xiaoao; Dai Zhenhong

    2009-01-01

    Epitaxial growth structures for (SiC) 1-x (AlN) x alloys are studied using a layered growth model. First-principle calculations are used to determine the parameters in the layered growth model. The phase diagrams of epitaxial growth are given. There is a rich variety of the new metastable polytype structures at x=1/6 ,1/5 ,1/4 ,1/3 , and 1/2 in the layered growth phase diagrams. We have also calculated the electronic properties of the short periodical SiCAlN alloys predicted by our layered growth model. The results show that various ordered structures of (SiC) 1-x (AlN) x alloys with the band gaps over a wide range are possible to be synthesized by epitaxial growth.

  8. Stochastic ontogenetic growth model

    Science.gov (United States)

    West, B. J.; West, D.

    2012-02-01

    An ontogenetic growth model (OGM) for a thermodynamically closed system is generalized to satisfy both the first and second law of thermodynamics. The hypothesized stochastic ontogenetic growth model (SOGM) is shown to entail the interspecies allometry relation by explicitly averaging the basal metabolic rate and the total body mass over the steady-state probability density for the total body mass (TBM). This is the first derivation of the interspecies metabolic allometric relation from a dynamical model and the asymptotic steady-state distribution of the TBM is fit to data and shown to be inverse power law.

  9. On a Versatile Stochastic Growth Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Samiur Arif

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available Growth phenomena are ubiquitous and pervasive not only in biology and the medical sciences, but also in economics, marketing and the computer and social sciences. We introduce a three-parameter version of the classic pure-birth process growth model when suitably instantiated, can be used to model growth phenomena in many seemingly unrelated application domains. We point out that the model is computationally attractive since it admits of conceptually simple, closed form solutions for the time-dependent probabilities.

  10. Viscoelastic model of tungsten 'fuzz' growth

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Krasheninnikov, S I

    2011-01-01

    A viscoelastic model of fuzz growth is presented. The model describes the main features of tungsten fuzz observed in experiments. It gives estimates of fuzz growth rate and temperature range close to experimental ones.

  11. Mathematical modeling of microbial growth in milk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jhony Tiago Teleken

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available A mathematical model to predict microbial growth in milk was developed and analyzed. The model consists of a system of two differential equations of first order. The equations are based on physical hypotheses of population growth. The model was applied to five different sets of data of microbial growth in dairy products selected from Combase, which is the most important database in the area with thousands of datasets from around the world, and the results showed a good fit. In addition, the model provides equations for the evaluation of the maximum specific growth rate and the duration of the lag phase which may provide useful information about microbial growth.

  12. Stochastic process corrosion growth models for pipeline reliability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bazán, Felipe Alexander Vargas; Beck, André Teófilo

    2013-01-01

    Highlights: •Novel non-linear stochastic process corrosion growth model is proposed. •Corrosion rate modeled as random Poisson pulses. •Time to corrosion initiation and inherent time-variability properly represented. •Continuous corrosion growth histories obtained. •Model is shown to precisely fit actual corrosion data at two time points. -- Abstract: Linear random variable corrosion models are extensively employed in reliability analysis of pipelines. However, linear models grossly neglect well-known characteristics of the corrosion process. Herein, a non-linear model is proposed, where corrosion rate is represented as a Poisson square wave process. The resulting model represents inherent time-variability of corrosion growth, produces continuous growth and leads to mean growth at less-than-one power of time. Different corrosion models are adjusted to the same set of actual corrosion data for two inspections. The proposed non-linear random process corrosion growth model leads to the best fit to the data, while better representing problem physics

  13. Nonconvex Model of Material Growth: Mathematical Theory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ganghoffer, J. F.; Plotnikov, P. I.; Sokolowski, J.

    2018-06-01

    The model of volumetric material growth is introduced in the framework of finite elasticity. The new results obtained for the model are presented with complete proofs. The state variables include the deformations, temperature and the growth factor matrix function. The existence of global in time solutions for the quasistatic deformations boundary value problem coupled with the energy balance and the evolution of the growth factor is shown. The mathematical results can be applied to a wide class of growth models in mechanics and biology.

  14. Modeling Root Growth, Crop Growth and N Uptake of Winter Wheat Based on SWMS_2D: Model and Validation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dejun Yang

    Full Text Available ABSTRACT Simulations for root growth, crop growth, and N uptake in agro-hydrological models are of significant concern to researchers. SWMS_2D is one of the most widely used physical hydrologically related models. This model solves equations that govern soil-water movement by the finite element method, and has a public access source code. Incorporating key agricultural components into the SWMS_2D model is of practical importance, especially for modeling some critical cereal crops such as winter wheat. We added root growth, crop growth, and N uptake modules into SWMS_2D. The root growth model had two sub-models, one for root penetration and the other for root length distribution. The crop growth model used was adapted from EU-ROTATE_N, linked to the N uptake model. Soil-water limitation, nitrogen limitation, and temperature effects were all considered in dry-weight modeling. Field experiments for winter wheat in Bouwing, the Netherlands, in 1983-1984 were selected for validation. Good agreements were achieved between simulations and measurements, including soil water content at different depths, normalized root length distribution, dry weight and nitrogen uptake. This indicated that the proposed new modules used in the SWMS_2D model are robust and reliable. In the future, more rigorous validation should be carried out, ideally under 2D situations, and attention should be paid to improve some modules, including the module simulating soil N mineralization.

  15. Testing R&D-Based Endogenous Growth Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kruse-Andersen, Peter Kjær

    2017-01-01

    R&D-based growth models are tested using US data for the period 1953-2014. A general growth model is developed which nests the model varieties of interest. The model implies a cointegrating relationship between multifactor productivity, research intensity, and employment. This relationship...... is estimated using cointegrated VAR models. The results provide evidence against the widely used fully endogenous variety and in favor of the semi-endogenous variety. Forecasts based on the empirical estimates suggest that the slowdown in US productivity growth will continue. Particularly, the annual long...

  16. Kinetic Model of Growth of Arthropoda Populations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ershov, Yu. A.; Kuznetsov, M. A.

    2018-05-01

    Kinetic equations were derived for calculating the growth of crustacean populations ( Crustacea) based on the biological growth model suggested earlier using shrimp ( Caridea) populations as an example. The development cycle of successive stages for populations can be represented in the form of quasi-chemical equations. The kinetic equations that describe the development cycle of crustaceans allow quantitative prediction of the development of populations depending on conditions. In contrast to extrapolation-simulation models, in the developed kinetic model of biological growth the kinetic parameters are the experimental characteristics of population growth. Verification and parametric identification of the developed model on the basis of the experimental data showed agreement with experiment within the error of the measurement technique.

  17. Differential model of macroeconomic growth with endogenic cyclicity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mikhail I. Geraskin

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available Objective to elaborate a mathematical model of economic growth taking into account the cyclical nature of macroeconomic dynamics with the model parameters based on the Russian economy statistics. Methods economic and mathematical modeling system analysis regression factor analysis econometric time series analysis. Results the article states that under unstable economic growth in Russia forecasting of strategic prospects of the Russian economy is one of the topical directions of scientific studies. Furthermore construction of predictive models should be based on multiple factors taking into account such basic concepts as the neoKeynesian HarrodDomar model Ramsey ndash Cass ndash Koopmans model S. V. Dubovskiyrsquos concept as well as the neoclassical growth model by R. Solow. They served as the basis for developing a multifactor differential economic growth model which is a modification of the neoclassical growth model by R. Solow taking into account the laborsaving and capitalsaving forms of scientifictechnical progress and the Keynesian concept of investment. The model parameters are determined based on the dynamics of actual GDP employment fixed assets and investments in fixed assets for 19652016 in Russia on the basis of official statistics. The generalized model showed the presence of longwave fluctuations that are not detected during the individual periods modeling. The cyclical nature of macroeconomic dynamics with a period of 54 years was found which corresponds to the parameters of long waves by N. D. Kondratiev. Basing on the model the macroeconomic growth forecast was generated which shows that after 2020 the increase of scientifictechnical progress will be negative. Scientific novelty a model is proposed of the scientifictechnical progress indicator showing the growth rate of the capital productivity ratio to the saving rate a differential model of macroeconomic growth is obtained which endogenously takes cyclicity into account

  18. 40 CFR 80.591 - What are the product transfer document requirements for additives to be used in diesel fuel?

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... Motor Vehicle Diesel Fuel; Nonroad, Locomotive, and Marine Diesel Fuel; and ECA Marine Fuel... content requirements for use in diesel motor vehicles and nonroad engines.”; or (2) For those additives... requirements for use in model year 2007 and newer diesel motor vehicles or model year 2011 and newer diesel...

  19. Testing linear growth rate formulas of non-scale endogenous growth models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ziesemer, Thomas

    2017-01-01

    Endogenous growth theory has produced formulas for steady-state growth rates of income per capita which are linear in the growth rate of the population. Depending on the details of the models, slopes and intercepts are positive, zero or negative. Empirical tests have taken over the assumption of

  20. Graphene growth process modeling: a physical-statistical approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Jian; Huang, Qiang

    2014-09-01

    As a zero-band semiconductor, graphene is an attractive material for a wide variety of applications such as optoelectronics. Among various techniques developed for graphene synthesis, chemical vapor deposition on copper foils shows high potential for producing few-layer and large-area graphene. Since fabrication of high-quality graphene sheets requires the understanding of growth mechanisms, and methods of characterization and control of grain size of graphene flakes, analytical modeling of graphene growth process is therefore essential for controlled fabrication. The graphene growth process starts with randomly nucleated islands that gradually develop into complex shapes, grow in size, and eventually connect together to cover the copper foil. To model this complex process, we develop a physical-statistical approach under the assumption of self-similarity during graphene growth. The growth kinetics is uncovered by separating island shapes from area growth rate. We propose to characterize the area growth velocity using a confined exponential model, which not only has clear physical explanation, but also fits the real data well. For the shape modeling, we develop a parametric shape model which can be well explained by the angular-dependent growth rate. This work can provide useful information for the control and optimization of graphene growth process on Cu foil.

  1. Growth curve models and statistical diagnostics

    CERN Document Server

    Pan, Jian-Xin

    2002-01-01

    Growth-curve models are generalized multivariate analysis-of-variance models. These models are especially useful for investigating growth problems on short times in economics, biology, medical research, and epidemiology. This book systematically introduces the theory of the GCM with particular emphasis on their multivariate statistical diagnostics, which are based mainly on recent developments made by the authors and their collaborators. The authors provide complete proofs of theorems as well as practical data sets and MATLAB code.

  2. 78 FR 28497 - Approval and Promulgation of Air Quality Implementation Plans; Ohio; Canton-Massillon 1997 8-Hour...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-05-15

    ... (2) the state can document that growth and control strategy assumptions for non-motor vehicle sources... finds that growth and control strategy assumptions for non-mobile sources (i.e., area, non- road, and... documented that growth and control strategy assumptions for non-motor vehicle sources (i.e. area, non-road...

  3. 78 FR 34906 - Approval and Promulgation of Air Quality Implementation Plans; Ohio; Lima 1997 8-Hour Ozone...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-06-11

    ... year inventories, and (2) the state can document that growth and control strategy assumptions for non... growth and control strategy assumptions for non-mobile sources (i.e., area, non-road, and point) have not... state has documented that growth and control strategy assumptions for non-motor vehicle sources (i.e...

  4. Modelling asymmetric growth in crowded plant communities

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Damgaard, Christian

    2010-01-01

    A class of models that may be used to quantify the effect of size-asymmetric competition in crowded plant communities by estimating a community specific degree of size-asymmetric growth for each species in the community is suggested. The model consists of two parts: an individual size......-asymmetric growth part, where growth is assumed to be proportional to a power function of the size of the individual, and a term that reduces the relative growth rate as a decreasing function of the individual plant size and the competitive interactions from other plants in the neighbourhood....

  5. A new model for simulating growth in fish

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Johannes Hamre

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available A real dynamic population model calculates change in population sizes independent of time. The Beverton & Holt (B&H model commonly used in fish assessment includes the von Bertalanffy growth function which has age or accumulated time as an independent variable. As a result the B&H model has to assume constant fish growth. However, growth in fish is highly variable depending on food availability and environmental conditions. We propose a new growth model where the length increment of fish living under constant conditions and unlimited food supply, decreases linearly with increasing fish length until it reaches zero at a maximal fish length. The model is independent of time and includes a term which accounts for the environmental variation. In the present study, the model was validated in zebrafish held at constant conditions. There was a good fit of the model to data on observed growth in Norwegian spring spawning herring, capelin from the Barents Sea, North Sea herring and in farmed coastal cod. Growth data from Walleye Pollock from the Eastern Bering Sea and blue whiting from the Norwegian Sea also fitted reasonably well to the model, whereas data from cod from the North Sea showed a good fit to the model only above a length of 70 cm. Cod from the Barents Sea did not grow according to the model. The last results can be explained by environmental factors and variable food availability in the time under study. The model implicates that the efficiency of energy conversion from food decreases as the individual animal approaches its maximal length and is postulated to represent a natural law of fish growth.

  6. Modeling Population Growth and Extinction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gordon, Sheldon P.

    2009-01-01

    The exponential growth model and the logistic model typically introduced in the mathematics curriculum presume that a population grows exclusively. In reality, species can also die out and more sophisticated models that take the possibility of extinction into account are needed. In this article, two extensions of the logistic model are considered,…

  7. Modeling of Hybrid Growth Wastewater Bio-reactor

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    EI Nashaei, S.; Garhyan, P.; Prasad, P.; Abdel Halim, H.S.; Ibrahim, G.

    2004-01-01

    The attached/suspended growth mixed reactors are considered one of the recently tried approaches to improve the performance of the biological treatment by increasing the volume of the accumulated biomass in terms of attached growth as well as suspended growth. Moreover, the domestic WW can be easily mixed with a high strength non-hazardous industrial wastewater and treated together in these bio-reactors if the need arises. Modeling of Hybrid hybrid growth wastewater reactor addresses the need of understanding the rational of such system in order to achieve better design and operation parameters. This paper aims at developing a heterogeneous mathematical model for hybrid growth system considering the effect of diffusion, external mass transfer, and power input to the system in a rational manner. The model will be based on distinguishing between liquid/solid phase (bio-film and bio-floc). This model would be a step ahead to the fine tuning the design of hybrid systems based on the experimental data of a pilot plant to be implemented in near future

  8. Economic Growth Models Transition

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Coralia Angelescu

    2006-03-01

    Full Text Available The transitional recession in countries of Eastern Europe has been much longer than expected. The legacy and recent policy mistakes have both contributed to the slow progress. As structural reforms and gradual institution building have taken hold, the post-socialist economics have started to recover, with some leading countries building momentum toward faster growth. There is a possibility that in wider context of globalization several of these emerging market economies will be able to catch up with the more advanced industrial economies in a matter of one or two generations. Over the past few years, most candidate countries have made progress in the transition to a competitive market economy, macroeconomic stabilization and structural reform. However their income levels have remained far below those in the Member States. Measured by per capita income in purchasing power standards, there has been a very limited amount of catching up over the past fourteen years. Prior, the distinctions between Solow-Swan model and endogenous growth model. The interdependence between transition and integration are stated in this study. Finally, some measures of macroeconomic policy for sustainable growth are proposed in correlation with real macroeconomic situation of the Romanian economy. Our study would be considered the real convergence for the Romanian economy and the recommendations for the adequate policies to achieve a fast real convergence and sustainable growth.

  9. Economic Growth Models Transition

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Coralia Angelescu

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available The transitional recession in countries of Eastern Europe has been much longer than expected. The legacy and recent policy mistakes have both contributed to the slow progress. As structural reforms and gradual institution building have taken hold, the post-socialist economics have started to recover, with some leading countries building momentum toward faster growth. There is a possibility that in wider context of globalization several of these emerging market economies will be able to catch up with the more advanced industrial economies in a matter of one or two generations. Over the past few years, most candidate countries have made progress in the transition to a competitive market economy, macroeconomic stabilization and structural reform. However their income levels have remained far below those in the Member States. Measured by per capita income in purchasing power standards, there has been a very limited amount of catching up over the past fourteen years. Prior, the distinctions between Solow-Swan model and endogenous growth model. The interdependence between transition and integration are stated in this study. Finally, some measures of macroeconomic policy for sustainable growth are proposed in correlation with real macroeconomic situation of the Romanian economy. Our study would be considered the real convergence for the Romanian economy and the recommendations for the adequate policies to achieve a fast real convergence and sustainable growth.

  10. Recent advances in modelling creep crack growth

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Riedel, H.

    1988-08-01

    At the time of the previous International Conference on Fracture, the C* integral had long been recognized as a promising load parameter for correlating crack growth rates in creep-ductile materials. The measured crack growth rates as a function of C* and of the temperature could be understood on the basis of micromechanical models. The distinction between C*-controlled and K I -controlled creep crack growth had been clarified and first attempts had been made to describe creep crack growth in the transient regime between elastic behavior and steady-state creep. This paper describes the progress in describing transient crack growth including the effect of primary creep. The effect of crack-tip geometry changes by blunting and by crack growth on the crack-tip fields and on the validity of C* is analyzed by idealizing the growing-crack geometry by a sharp notch and using recent solutions for the notch-tip fields. A few new three-dimensional calculations of C* are cited and important theoretical points are emphasized regarding the three-dimensional fields at crack tips. Finally, creep crack growth is described by continuum-damage models for which similarity solutions can be obtained. Crack growth under small-scale creep conditions turns out to be difficult to understand. Slightly different models yield very different crack growth rates. (orig.) With 4 figs

  11. Pollution externalities in a Schumpeterian growth model

    OpenAIRE

    Koesler, Simon

    2010-01-01

    This paper extends a standard Schumpeterian growth model to include an environmental dimension. Thereby, it explicitly links the pollution intensity of economic activity to technological progress. In a second step, it investigates the effect of pollution on economic growth under the assumption that pollution intensities are related to technological progress. Several conclusions emerge from the model. In equilibrium, the economy follows a balanced growth path. The effect of pollution on the ec...

  12. Mechanistic model for microbial growth on hydrocarbons

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mallee, F M; Blanch, H W

    1977-12-01

    Based on available information describing the transport and consumption of insoluble alkanes, a mechanistic model is proposed for microbial growth on hydrocarbons. The model describes the atypical growth kinetics observed, and has implications in the design of large scale equipment for single cell protein (SCP) manufacture from hydrocarbons. The model presents a framework for comparison of the previously published experimental kinetic data.

  13. Value function in economic growth model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bagno, Alexander; Tarasyev, Alexandr A.; Tarasyev, Alexander M.

    2017-11-01

    Properties of the value function are examined in an infinite horizon optimal control problem with an unlimited integrand index appearing in the quality functional with a discount factor. Optimal control problems of such type describe solutions in models of economic growth. Necessary and sufficient conditions are derived to ensure that the value function satisfies the infinitesimal stability properties. It is proved that value function coincides with the minimax solution of the Hamilton-Jacobi equation. Description of the growth asymptotic behavior for the value function is provided for the logarithmic, power and exponential quality functionals and an example is given to illustrate construction of the value function in economic growth models.

  14. A Model of Controlled Growth

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bressan, Alberto; Lewicka, Marta

    2018-03-01

    We consider a free boundary problem for a system of PDEs, modeling the growth of a biological tissue. A morphogen, controlling volume growth, is produced by specific cells and then diffused and absorbed throughout the domain. The geometric shape of the growing tissue is determined by the instantaneous minimization of an elastic deformation energy, subject to a constraint on the volumetric growth. For an initial domain with C}^{2,α boundary, our main result establishes the local existence and uniqueness of a classical solution, up to a rigid motion.

  15. Trajectories and models of individual growth

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Arseniy Karkach

    2006-11-01

    Full Text Available It has long been recognized that the patterns of growth play an important role in the evolution of age trajectories of fertility and mortality (Williams, 1957. Life history studies would benefit from a better understanding of strategies and mechanisms of growth, but still no comparative research on individual growth strategies has been conducted. Growth patterns and methods have been shaped by evolution and a great variety of them are observed. Two distinct patterns - determinate and indeterminate growth - are of a special interest for these studies since they present qualitatively different outcomes of evolution. We attempt to draw together studies covering growth in plant and animal species across a wide range of phyla focusing primarily on the noted qualitative features. We also review mathematical descriptions of growth, namely empirical growth curves and growth models, and discuss the directions of future research.

  16. Modeling error distributions of growth curve models through Bayesian methods.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Zhiyong

    2016-06-01

    Growth curve models are widely used in social and behavioral sciences. However, typical growth curve models often assume that the errors are normally distributed although non-normal data may be even more common than normal data. In order to avoid possible statistical inference problems in blindly assuming normality, a general Bayesian framework is proposed to flexibly model normal and non-normal data through the explicit specification of the error distributions. A simulation study shows when the distribution of the error is correctly specified, one can avoid the loss in the efficiency of standard error estimates. A real example on the analysis of mathematical ability growth data from the Early Childhood Longitudinal Study, Kindergarten Class of 1998-99 is used to show the application of the proposed methods. Instructions and code on how to conduct growth curve analysis with both normal and non-normal error distributions using the the MCMC procedure of SAS are provided.

  17. On Latent Growth Models for Composites and Their Constituents.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hancock, Gregory R; Mao, Xiulin; Kher, Hemant

    2013-09-01

    Over the last decade and a half, latent growth modeling has become an extremely popular and versatile technique for evaluating longitudinal change and its determinants. Most common among the models applied are those for a single measured variable over time. This model has been extended in a variety of ways, most relevant for the current work being the multidomain and the second-order latent growth models. Whereas the former allows for growth function characteristics to be modeled for multiple outcomes simultaneously, with the degree of growth characteristics' relations assessed within the model (e.g., cross-domain slope factor correlations), the latter models growth in latent outcomes, each of which has effect indicators repeated over time. But what if one has an outcome that is believed to be formative relative to its indicator variables rather than latent? In this case, where the outcome is a composite of multiple constituents, modeling change over time is less straightforward. This article provides analytical and applied details for simultaneously modeling growth in composites and their constituent elements, including a real data example using a general computer self-efficacy questionnaire.

  18. Structural modelling of economic growth: Technological changes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sukharev Oleg

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Neoclassical and Keynesian theories of economic growth assume the use of Cobb-Douglas modified functions and other aggregate econometric approaches to growth dynamics modelling. In that case explanations of economic growth are based on the logic of the used mathematical ratios often including the ideas about aggregated values change and factors change a priori. The idea of assessment of factor productivity is the fundamental one among modern theories of economic growth. Nevertheless, structural parameters of economic system, institutions and technological changes are practically not considered within known approaches, though the latter is reflected in the changing parameters of production function. At the same time, on the one hand, the ratio of structural elements determines the future value of the total productivity of the factors and, on the other hand, strongly influences the rate of economic growth and its mode of innovative dynamics. To put structural parameters of economic system into growth models with the possibility of assessment of such modes under conditions of interaction of new and old combinations is an essential step in the development of the theory of economic growth/development. It allows forming stimulation policy of economic growth proceeding from the structural ratios and relations recognized for this economic system. It is most convenient in such models to use logistic functions demonstrating the resource change for old and new combination within the economic system. The result of economy development depends on starting conditions, and on institutional parameters of velocity change of resource borrowing in favour of a new combination and creation of its own resource. Model registration of the resource is carried out through the idea of investments into new and old combinations.

  19. Measurement of PM and its chemical composition in real-world emissions from non-road and on-road diesel vehicles

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Cui

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available With the rapid growth in the number of both non-road and on-road diesel vehicles, the adverse effects of particulate matter (PM and its constituents on air quality and human health have attracted increasing attentions. However, studies on the characteristics of PM and its composition emitted from diesel vehicles are still scarce, especially under real-world driving conditions. In this study, six excavators and five trucks that provided a wide range of emission standards and operation modes were tested, and PM emissions and their constituents – including organic carbon (OC, elemental carbon (EC, water-soluble ions (WSIs, elements, and organic species like polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs, n-alkanes, and hopanes – as well as steranes were analyzed and characterized. The average emission factors for PM (EFPM from excavator and truck emissions were 829 ± 806 and 498 ± 234 mg kg−1 fuel, respectively. EFPM and PM constituents were significantly affected by fuel quality, operational mode, and emission standards. A significant correlation (R2 = 0. 79, p < 0. 01 was found between EFPM for excavators and the sulfur contents in fuel. The highest average EFPM for working excavators was 904 ± 979 mg kg−1 fuel as a higher engine load required in this mode. From pre-stage 1 to stage 2, the average EFPM for excavators decreased by 58 %. For trucks, the average non-highway EFPM at 548 ± 311 mg kg−1 fuel was higher than the highway EFPM at 497 ± 231 mg kg−1 fuel. Moreover, the reduction rates were 63.5 and 65.6 % when switched from China II and III to China IV standards, respectively. Generally, the PM composition emitted from excavators was dominated by OC (39. 2 ± 21. 0 % and EC (33. 3 ± 25. 9 %; PM from trucks was dominated by EC (26. 9 ± 20. 8 %, OC (9. 89 ± 12 %, and WSIs (4. 67 ± 5. 74 %. The average OC ∕ EC ratios for

  20. Model uncertainty in growth empirics

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Prüfer, P.

    2008-01-01

    This thesis applies so-called Bayesian model averaging (BMA) to three different economic questions substantially exposed to model uncertainty. Chapter 2 addresses a major issue of modern development economics: the analysis of the determinants of pro-poor growth (PPG), which seeks to combine high

  1. Detecting Growth Shape Misspecifications in Latent Growth Models: An Evaluation of Fit Indexes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leite, Walter L.; Stapleton, Laura M.

    2011-01-01

    In this study, the authors compared the likelihood ratio test and fit indexes for detection of misspecifications of growth shape in latent growth models through a simulation study and a graphical analysis. They found that the likelihood ratio test, MFI, and root mean square error of approximation performed best for detecting model misspecification…

  2. Modeling urban fire growth

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Waterman, T.E.; Takata, A.N.

    1983-01-01

    The IITRI Urban Fire Spread Model as well as others of similar vintage were constrained by computer size and running costs such that many approximations/generalizations were introduced to reduce program complexity and data storage requirements. Simplifications were introduced both in input data and in fire growth and spread calculations. Modern computational capabilities offer the means to introduce greater detail and to examine its practical significance on urban fire predictions. Selected portions of the model are described as presently configured, and potential modifications are discussed. A single tract model is hypothesized which permits the importance of various model details to be assessed, and, other model applications are identified

  3. Neo-logistic model for the growth of bacteria

    OpenAIRE

    Tashiro, Tohru; Yoshimura, Fujiko

    2017-01-01

    We propose a neo-logistic model that can describe bacterial growth data precisely. This model is not derived by modifying the logistic model formally, but by incorporating the synthesis of inducible enzymes into the logistic model indirectly. Therefore, the meaning of the parameters of the neo-logistic model becomes physically clear. The neo-logistic model can approximate bacterial growth better than models previously presented, and predict the order of the saturated number of bacteria in the...

  4. Non-linear Growth Models in Mplus and SAS

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grimm, Kevin J.; Ram, Nilam

    2013-01-01

    Non-linear growth curves or growth curves that follow a specified non-linear function in time enable researchers to model complex developmental patterns with parameters that are easily interpretable. In this paper we describe how a variety of sigmoid curves can be fit using the Mplus structural modeling program and the non-linear mixed-effects modeling procedure NLMIXED in SAS. Using longitudinal achievement data collected as part of a study examining the effects of preschool instruction on academic gain we illustrate the procedures for fitting growth models of logistic, Gompertz, and Richards functions. Brief notes regarding the practical benefits, limitations, and choices faced in the fitting and estimation of such models are included. PMID:23882134

  5. Modelling diameter growth, mortality and recruitment of trees in ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Modelling diameter growth, mortality and recruitment of trees in miombo woodlands of Tanzania. ... Individual tree diameter growth and mortality models, and area-based recruitment models were developed. ... AJOL African Journals Online.

  6. Forest growth modeling in the Southern Region, National Forest System

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Belcher, D.M.

    1988-01-01

    This paper discusses an attempt to combine individual tree growth models and stand level growth models currently available for the Region into one computer program. Operation of the program is explained and growth models are included

  7. United States geological survey's reserve-growth models and their implementation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klett, T.R.

    2005-01-01

    The USGS has developed several mathematical models to forecast reserve growth of fields both in the United States (U.S.) and the world. The models are based on historical reserve growth patterns of fields in the U.S. The patterns of past reserve growth are extrapolated to forecast future reserve growth. Changes of individual field sizes through time are extremely variable, therefore, the reserve growth models take on a statistical approach whereby volumetric changes for populations of fields are used in the models. Field age serves as a measure of the field-development effort that is applied to promote reserve growth. At the time of the USGS World Petroleum Assessment 2000, a reserve growth model for discovered fields of the world was not available. Reserve growth forecasts, therefore, were made based on a model of historical reserve growth of fields of the U.S. To test the feasibility of such an application, reserve growth forecasts were made of 186 giant oil fields of the world (excluding the U.S. and Canada). In addition, forecasts were made for these giant oil fields subdivided into those located in and outside of Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC). The model provided a reserve-growth forecast that closely matched the actual reserve growth that occurred from 1981 through 1996 for the 186 fields as a whole, as well as for both OPEC and non-OPEC subdivisions, despite the differences in reserves definition among the fields of the U.S. and the rest of the world. ?? 2005 International Association for Mathematical Geology.

  8. In silico modeling for tumor growth visualization.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jeanquartier, Fleur; Jean-Quartier, Claire; Cemernek, David; Holzinger, Andreas

    2016-08-08

    Cancer is a complex disease. Fundamental cellular based studies as well as modeling provides insight into cancer biology and strategies to treatment of the disease. In silico models complement in vivo models. Research on tumor growth involves a plethora of models each emphasizing isolated aspects of benign and malignant neoplasms. Biologists and clinical scientists are often overwhelmed by the mathematical background knowledge necessary to grasp and to apply a model to their own research. We aim to provide a comprehensive and expandable simulation tool to visualizing tumor growth. This novel Web-based application offers the advantage of a user-friendly graphical interface with several manipulable input variables to correlate different aspects of tumor growth. By refining model parameters we highlight the significance of heterogeneous intercellular interactions on tumor progression. Within this paper we present the implementation of the Cellular Potts Model graphically presented through Cytoscape.js within a Web application. The tool is available under the MIT license at https://github.com/davcem/cpm-cytoscape and http://styx.cgv.tugraz.at:8080/cpm-cytoscape/ . In-silico methods overcome the lack of wet experimental possibilities and as dry method succeed in terms of reduction, refinement and replacement of animal experimentation, also known as the 3R principles. Our visualization approach to simulation allows for more flexible usage and easy extension to facilitate understanding and gain novel insight. We believe that biomedical research in general and research on tumor growth in particular will benefit from the systems biology perspective.

  9. Bridging process-based and empirical approaches to modeling tree growth

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harry T. Valentine; Annikki Makela; Annikki Makela

    2005-01-01

    The gulf between process-based and empirical approaches to modeling tree growth may be bridged, in part, by the use of a common model. To this end, we have formulated a process-based model of tree growth that can be fitted and applied in an empirical mode. The growth model is grounded in pipe model theory and an optimal control model of crown development. Together, the...

  10. Regression models for linking patterns of growth to a later outcome: infant growth and childhood overweight

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrew K. Wills

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Regression models are widely used to link serial measures of anthropometric size or changes in size to a later outcome. Different parameterisations of these models enable one to target different questions about the effect of growth, however, their interpretation can be challenging. Our objective was to formulate and classify several sets of parameterisations by their underlying growth pattern contrast, and to discuss their utility using an expository example. Methods We describe and classify five sets of model parameterisations in accordance with their underlying growth pattern contrast (conditional growth; being bigger v being smaller; becoming bigger and staying bigger; growing faster v being bigger; becoming and staying bigger versus being bigger. The contrasts are estimated by including different sets of repeated measures of size and changes in size in a regression model. We illustrate these models in the setting of linking infant growth (measured on 6 occasions: birth, 6 weeks, 3, 6, 12 and 24 months in weight-for-height-for-age z-scores to later childhood overweight at 8y using complete cases from the Norwegian Childhood Growth study (n = 900. Results In our expository example, conditional growth during all periods, becoming bigger in any interval and staying bigger through infancy, and being bigger from birth were all associated with higher odds of later overweight. The highest odds of later overweight occurred for individuals who experienced high conditional growth or became bigger in the 3 to 6 month period and stayed bigger, and those who were bigger from birth to 24 months. Comparisons between periods and between growth patterns require large sample sizes and need to consider how to scale associations to make comparisons fair; with respect to the latter, we show one approach. Conclusion Studies interested in detrimental growth patterns may gain extra insight from reporting several sets of growth pattern

  11. Growth of cortical neuronal network in vitro: Modeling and analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lai, P.-Y.; Jia, L. C.; Chan, C. K.

    2006-01-01

    We present a detailed analysis and theoretical growth models to account for recent experimental data on the growth of cortical neuronal networks in vitro [Phys. Rev. Lett. 93, 088101 (2004)]. The experimentally observed synchronized firing frequency of a well-connected neuronal network is shown to be proportional to the mean network connectivity. The growth of the network is consistent with the model of an early enhanced growth of connection, but followed by a retarded growth once the synchronized cluster is formed. Microscopic models with dominant excluded volume interactions are consistent with the observed exponential decay of the mean connection probability as a function of the mean network connectivity. The biological implications of the growth model are also discussed

  12. Balanced growth path solutions of a Boltzmann mean field game model for knowledge growth

    KAUST Repository

    Burger, Martin

    2016-11-18

    In this paper we study balanced growth path solutions of a Boltzmann mean field game model proposed by Lucas and Moll [15] to model knowledge growth in an economy. Agents can either increase their knowledge level by exchanging ideas in learning events or by producing goods with the knowledge they already have. The existence of balanced growth path solutions implies exponential growth of the overall production in time. We prove existence of balanced growth path solutions if the initial distribution of individuals with respect to their knowledge level satisfies a Pareto-tail condition. Furthermore we give first insights into the existence of such solutions if in addition to production and knowledge exchange the knowledge level evolves by geometric Brownian motion.

  13. Modeling the effects of ozone on soybean growth and yield.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kobayashi, K; Miller, J E; Flagler, R B; Heck, W W

    1990-01-01

    A simple mechanistic model was developed based on an existing growth model in order to address the mechanisms of the effects of ozone on growth and yield of soybean [Glycine max. (L.) Merr. 'Davis'] and interacting effects of other environmental stresses. The model simulates daily growth of soybean plants using environmental data including shortwave radiation, temperature, precipitation, irrigation and ozone concentration. Leaf growth, dry matter accumulation, water budget, nitrogen input and seed growth linked to senescence and abscission of leaves are described in the model. The effects of ozone are modeled as reduced photosynthate production and accelerated senescence. The model was applied to the open-top chamber experiments in which soybean plants were exposed to ozone under two levels of soil moisture regimes. After calibrating the model to the growth data and seed yield, goodness-of-fit of the model was tested. The model fitted well for top dry weight in the vegetative growth phase and also at maturity. The effect of ozone on seen yield was also described satisfactorily by the model. The simulation showed apparent interaction between the effect of ozone and soil moisture stress on the seed yield. The model revealed that further work is needed concerning the effect of ozone on the senescence process and the consequences of alteration of canopy microclimate by the open-top chambers.

  14. Draft Environmental Impact Statement for Divert Activities and Exercises, Guam and Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-06-01

    and other wildlife from suitable habitat in the 7 proposed Project Area. Smaller, less-mobile species and those seeking refuge in burrows could 8...the NONROAD model and were provided to e²M by Larry Landman of the Air Quality and Modeling Center (Landman.Larry@epamail.epa.gov) on 12/14/07...Emission factors are taken from the NONROAD model and were provided to e²M by Larry Landman of the Air Quality and Modeling Center (Landman.Larry

  15. Plant Growth Modeling Using L-System Approach and Its Visualization

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Atris Suyantohadi

    2011-05-01

    Full Text Available The visualizationof plant growth modeling using computer simulation has rarely been conducted with Lindenmayer System (L-System approach. L-System generally has been used as framework for improving and designing realistic modeling on plant growth. It is one kind of tools for representing plant growth based on grammar sintax and mathematic formulation. This research aimed to design modeling and visualizing plant growth structure generated using L-System. The environment on modeling design used three dimension graphic on standart OpenGL format. The visualization on system design has been developed by some of L-System grammar, and the output graphic on three dimension reflected on plant growth as a virtual plant growth system. Using some of samples on grammar L-System rules for describing of the charaterictics of plant growth, the visualization of structure on plant growth has been resulted and demonstrated.

  16. Non-rigid image registration using bone growth model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bro-Nielsen, Morten; Gramkow, Claus; Kreiborg, Sven

    1997-01-01

    Non-rigid registration has traditionally used physical models like elasticity and fluids. These models are very seldom valid models of the difference between the registered images. This paper presents a non-rigid registration algorithm, which uses a model of bone growth as a model of the change...... between time sequence images of the human mandible. By being able to register the images, this paper at the same time contributes to the validation of the growth model, which is based on the currently available medical theories and knowledge...

  17. A mathematical model of microalgae growth in cylindrical photobioreactor

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bakeri, Noorhadila Mohd; Jamaian, Siti Suhana

    2017-08-01

    Microalgae are unicellular organisms, which exist individually or in chains or groups but can be utilized in many applications. Researchers have done various efforts in order to increase the growth rate of microalgae. Microalgae have a potential as an effective tool for wastewater treatment, besides as a replacement for natural fuel such as coal and biodiesel. The growth of microalgae can be estimated by using Geider model, which this model is based on photosynthesis irradiance curve (PI-curve) and focused on flat panel photobioreactor. Therefore, in this study a mathematical model for microalgae growth in cylindrical photobioreactor is proposed based on the Geider model. The light irradiance is the crucial part that affects the growth rate of microalgae. The absorbed photon flux will be determined by calculating the average light irradiance in a cylindrical system illuminated by unidirectional parallel flux and considering the cylinder as a collection of differential parallelepipeds. Results from this study showed that the specific growth rate of microalgae increases until the constant level is achieved. Therefore, the proposed mathematical model can be used to estimate the rate of microalgae growth in cylindrical photobioreactor.

  18. Localisation in a Growth Model with Interaction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Costa, M.; Menshikov, M.; Shcherbakov, V.; Vachkovskaia, M.

    2018-05-01

    This paper concerns the long term behaviour of a growth model describing a random sequential allocation of particles on a finite cycle graph. The model can be regarded as a reinforced urn model with graph-based interaction. It is motivated by cooperative sequential adsorption, where adsorption rates at a site depend on the configuration of existing particles in the neighbourhood of that site. Our main result is that, with probability one, the growth process will eventually localise either at a single site, or at a pair of neighbouring sites.

  19. Growth rate in the dynamical dark energy models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Avsajanishvili, Olga; Arkhipova, Natalia A.; Samushia, Lado; Kahniashvili, Tina

    2014-01-01

    Dark energy models with a slowly rolling cosmological scalar field provide a popular alternative to the standard, time-independent cosmological constant model. We study the simultaneous evolution of background expansion and growth in the scalar field model with the Ratra-Peebles self-interaction potential. We use recent measurements of the linear growth rate and the baryon acoustic oscillation peak positions to constrain the model parameter α that describes the steepness of the scalar field potential. (orig.)

  20. Growth rate in the dynamical dark energy models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Avsajanishvili, Olga; Arkhipova, Natalia A; Samushia, Lado; Kahniashvili, Tina

    Dark energy models with a slowly rolling cosmological scalar field provide a popular alternative to the standard, time-independent cosmological constant model. We study the simultaneous evolution of background expansion and growth in the scalar field model with the Ratra-Peebles self-interaction potential. We use recent measurements of the linear growth rate and the baryon acoustic oscillation peak positions to constrain the model parameter [Formula: see text] that describes the steepness of the scalar field potential.

  1. Investigation of Mediational Processes Using Parallel Process Latent Growth Curve Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cheong, JeeWon; MacKinnon, David P.; Khoo, Siek Toon

    2010-01-01

    This study investigated a method to evaluate mediational processes using latent growth curve modeling. The mediator and the outcome measured across multiple time points were viewed as 2 separate parallel processes. The mediational process was defined as the independent variable influencing the growth of the mediator, which, in turn, affected the growth of the outcome. To illustrate modeling procedures, empirical data from a longitudinal drug prevention program, Adolescents Training and Learning to Avoid Steroids, were used. The program effects on the growth of the mediator and the growth of the outcome were examined first in a 2-group structural equation model. The mediational process was then modeled and tested in a parallel process latent growth curve model by relating the prevention program condition, the growth rate factor of the mediator, and the growth rate factor of the outcome. PMID:20157639

  2. Studying historical occupational careers with multilevel growth models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wiebke Schulz

    2010-10-01

    Full Text Available In this article we propose to study occupational careers with historical data by using multilevel growth models. Historical career data are often characterized by a lack of information on the timing of occupational changes and by different numbers of observations of occupations per individual. Growth models can handle these specificities, whereas standard methods, such as event history analyses can't. We illustrate the use of growth models by studying career success of men and women, using data from the Historical Sample of the Netherlands. The results show that the method is applicable to male careers, but causes trouble when analyzing female careers.

  3. Tax Evasion in a Model of Endogenous Growth

    OpenAIRE

    Been-Lon Chen

    2003-01-01

    This paper integrates tax evasion into a standard AK growth model with public capital. In the model, the government optimizes the tax rate, while individuals optimize tax evasion. It studies tax rate, tax evasion and economic growth, and compares them with otherwise identical economies except those without tax evasion. It inquires into the effects of three government policies on tax rate, tax evasion, and economic growth. It finds that an increase in both unit cost of tax evasion and punishme...

  4. Cellular Automaton Modeling of Dendritic Growth Using a Multi-grid Method

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Natsume, Y; Ohsasa, K

    2015-01-01

    A two-dimensional cellular automaton model with a multi-grid method was developed to simulate dendritic growth. In the present model, we used a triple-grid system for temperature, solute concentration and solid fraction fields as a new approach of the multi-grid method. In order to evaluate the validity of the present model, we carried out simulations of single dendritic growth, secondary dendrite arm growth, multi-columnar dendritic growth and multi-equiaxed dendritic growth. From the results of the grid dependency from the simulation of single dendritic growth, we confirmed that the larger grid can be used in the simulation and that the computational time can be reduced dramatically. In the simulation of secondary dendrite arm growth, the results from the present model were in good agreement with the experimental data and the simulated results from a phase-field model. Thus, the present model can quantitatively simulate dendritic growth. From the simulated results of multi-columnar and multi-equiaxed dendrites, we confirmed that the present model can perform simulations under practical solidification conditions. (paper)

  5. Nonlinear Growth Models in M"plus" and SAS

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grimm, Kevin J.; Ram, Nilam

    2009-01-01

    Nonlinear growth curves or growth curves that follow a specified nonlinear function in time enable researchers to model complex developmental patterns with parameters that are easily interpretable. In this article we describe how a variety of sigmoid curves can be fit using the M"plus" structural modeling program and the nonlinear…

  6. Stochastic modelling of avascular tumour growth and therapy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sahoo, S; Sahoo, A; Shearer, S F C

    2011-01-01

    In this paper, a generalized stochastic model for the growth of avascular tumours is presented. This model captures the dynamical evolution of avascular tumour cell subpopulations by incorporating Gaussian white noise into the growth rate of the mitotic function. This work generalizes the deterministic model proposed by Sherratt and Chaplain (2001 J. Math. Biol. 43 291) where they formulated a tumour model in an in vivo setting, in terms of continuum densities of proliferating, quiescent and necrotic cells. Detailed simulations of our model show that the inclusion of Gaussian noise in the original model of Sherratt and Chaplain substantially distorts the overall structure of the density profiles in addition to reducing the speed of tumour growth. Within this stochastic carcinogenesis framework the action of therapy is also investigated by replacing Gaussian white noise with a therapy term. We compare a constant therapy protocol with a logarithmic time-dependent protocol. Our results predict that a logarithmic therapy is more effective than the constant therapy protocol.

  7. Surface-bounded growth modeling applied to human mandibles

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andresen, Per Rønsholt

    1999-01-01

    This thesis presents mathematical and computational techniques for three dimensional growth modeling applied to human mandibles. The longitudinal shape changes make the mandible a complex bone. The teeth erupt and the condylar processes change direction, from pointing predominantly backward...... of the common features. 3.model the process that moves the matched points (growth modeling). A local shape feature called crest line has shown itself to be structurally stable on mandibles. Registration of crest lines (from different mandibles) results in a sparse deformation field, which must be interpolated...... old mandible based on the 3 month old scan. When using successively more recent scans as basis for the model the error drops to 2.0 mm for the 11 years old scan. Thus, it seems reasonable to assume that the mandibular growth is linear....

  8. Growth Curve Models and Applications : Indian Statistical Institute

    CERN Document Server

    2017-01-01

    Growth curve models in longitudinal studies are widely used to model population size, body height, biomass, fungal growth, and other variables in the biological sciences, but these statistical methods for modeling growth curves and analyzing longitudinal data also extend to general statistics, economics, public health, demographics, epidemiology, SQC, sociology, nano-biotechnology, fluid mechanics, and other applied areas.   There is no one-size-fits-all approach to growth measurement. The selected papers in this volume build on presentations from the GCM workshop held at the Indian Statistical Institute, Giridih, on March 28-29, 2016. They represent recent trends in GCM research on different subject areas, both theoretical and applied. This book includes tools and possibilities for further work through new techniques and modification of existing ones. The volume includes original studies, theoretical findings and case studies from a wide range of app lied work, and these contributions have been externally r...

  9. Selection, calibration, and validation of models of tumor growth.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lima, E A B F; Oden, J T; Hormuth, D A; Yankeelov, T E; Almeida, R C

    2016-11-01

    This paper presents general approaches for addressing some of the most important issues in predictive computational oncology concerned with developing classes of predictive models of tumor growth. First, the process of developing mathematical models of vascular tumors evolving in the complex, heterogeneous, macroenvironment of living tissue; second, the selection of the most plausible models among these classes, given relevant observational data; third, the statistical calibration and validation of models in these classes, and finally, the prediction of key Quantities of Interest (QOIs) relevant to patient survival and the effect of various therapies. The most challenging aspects of this endeavor is that all of these issues often involve confounding uncertainties: in observational data, in model parameters, in model selection, and in the features targeted in the prediction. Our approach can be referred to as "model agnostic" in that no single model is advocated; rather, a general approach that explores powerful mixture-theory representations of tissue behavior while accounting for a range of relevant biological factors is presented, which leads to many potentially predictive models. Then representative classes are identified which provide a starting point for the implementation of OPAL, the Occam Plausibility Algorithm (OPAL) which enables the modeler to select the most plausible models (for given data) and to determine if the model is a valid tool for predicting tumor growth and morphology ( in vivo ). All of these approaches account for uncertainties in the model, the observational data, the model parameters, and the target QOI. We demonstrate these processes by comparing a list of models for tumor growth, including reaction-diffusion models, phase-fields models, and models with and without mechanical deformation effects, for glioma growth measured in murine experiments. Examples are provided that exhibit quite acceptable predictions of tumor growth in laboratory

  10. A mathematical model of the growth of uterine myomas.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, C Y; Ward, J P

    2014-12-01

    Uterine myomas or fibroids are common, benign smooth muscle tumours that can grow to 10  cm or more in diameter and are routinely removed surgically. They are typically slow- growing, well-vascularised, spherical tumours that, on a macro-scale, are a structurally uniform, hard elastic material. We present a multi-phase mathematical model of a fully vascularised myoma growing within a surrounding elastic tissue. Adopting a continuum approach, the model assumes the conservation of mass and momentum of four phases, namely cells/collagen, extracellular fluid, arterial and venous phases. The cell/collagen phase is treated as a poro-elastic material, based on a linear stress-strain relationship, and Darcy's law is applied to describe flow in the extracellular fluid and the two vascular phases. The supply of extracellular fluid is dependent on the capillary flow rate and mean capillary pressure expressed in terms of the arterial and venous pressures. Cell growth and division is limited to the myoma domain and dependent on the local stress in the material. The resulting model consists of a system of nonlinear partial differential equations with two moving boundaries. Numerical solutions of the model successfully reproduce qualitatively the clinically observed three-phase "fast-slow-fast" growth profile that is typical for myomas. The results suggest that this growth profile requires stress-induced resistance to growth by the surrounding tissue and a switch-like cell growth response to stress. Analysis of large-time solutions reveal that while there is a functioning vasculature throughout the myoma, exponential growth results, otherwise power-law growth is predicted. An extensive survey of the effect of parameters on model solutions is also presented, and in particular, the enhanced growth caused by factors such as oestrogen is predicted by the model.

  11. Growth Kinetics and Modeling of Direct Oxynitride Growth with NO-O2 Gas Mixtures

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Everist, Sarah; Nelson, Jerry; Sharangpani, Rahul; Smith, Paul Martin; Tay, Sing-Pin; Thakur, Randhir

    1999-05-03

    We have modeled growth kinetics of oxynitrides grown in NO-O2 gas mixtures from first principles using modified Deal-Grove equations. Retardation of oxygen diffusion through the nitrided dielectric was assumed to be the dominant growth-limiting step. The model was validated against experimentally obtained curves with good agreement. Excellent uniformity, which exceeded expected walues, was observed.

  12. Parameter Estimates in Differential Equation Models for Population Growth

    Science.gov (United States)

    Winkel, Brian J.

    2011-01-01

    We estimate the parameters present in several differential equation models of population growth, specifically logistic growth models and two-species competition models. We discuss student-evolved strategies and offer "Mathematica" code for a gradient search approach. We use historical (1930s) data from microbial studies of the Russian biologist,…

  13. Mudcake growth: Model and implications

    KAUST Repository

    Liu, Q.; Santamarina, Carlos

    2017-01-01

    cementing, and to prevent partial differential sticking. We developed a robust mud cake growth model for water-based mud based on wide stress-range constitutive equations within a Lagrangian reference system to avoid non-natural moving boundary solutions

  14. R.M. Solow Adjusted Model of Economic Growth

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ion Gh. Rosca

    2007-05-01

    Full Text Available Besides the models of M. Keynes, R.F. Harrod, E. Domar, D. Romer, Ramsey-Cass-Koopmans etc., the R.M. Solow model is part of the category which characterizes the economic growth. The paper proposes the study of the R.M. Solow adjusted model of economic growth, while the adjustment consisting in the model adaptation to the Romanian economic characteristics. The article is the first one from a three paper series dedicated to the macroeconomic modelling theme, using the R.M. Solow model, such as: “Measurement of the economic growth and extensions of the R.M. Solow adjusted model” and “Evolution scenarios at the Romanian economy level using the R.M. Solow adjusted model”. The analysis part of the model is based on the study of the equilibrium to the continuous case with some interpretations of the discreet one, by using the state diagram. The optimization problem at the economic level is also used; it is built up of a specified number of representative consumers and firms in order to reveal the interaction between these elements.

  15. A Finite Element Model for Mixed Porohyperelasticity with Transport, Swelling, and Growth.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michelle Hine Armstrong

    Full Text Available The purpose of this manuscript is to establish a unified theory of porohyperelasticity with transport and growth and to demonstrate the capability of this theory using a finite element model developed in MATLAB. We combine the theories of volumetric growth and mixed porohyperelasticity with transport and swelling (MPHETS to derive a new method that models growth of biological soft tissues. The conservation equations and constitutive equations are developed for both solid-only growth and solid/fluid growth. An axisymmetric finite element framework is introduced for the new theory of growing MPHETS (GMPHETS. To illustrate the capabilities of this model, several example finite element test problems are considered using model geometry and material parameters based on experimental data from a porcine coronary artery. Multiple growth laws are considered, including time-driven, concentration-driven, and stress-driven growth. Time-driven growth is compared against an exact analytical solution to validate the model. For concentration-dependent growth, changing the diffusivity (representing a change in drug fundamentally changes growth behavior. We further demonstrate that for stress-dependent, solid-only growth of an artery, growth of an MPHETS model results in a more uniform hoop stress than growth in a hyperelastic model for the same amount of growth time using the same growth law. This may have implications in the context of developing residual stresses in soft tissues under intraluminal pressure. To our knowledge, this manuscript provides the first full description of an MPHETS model with growth. The developed computational framework can be used in concert with novel in-vitro and in-vivo experimental approaches to identify the governing growth laws for various soft tissues.

  16. A Finite Element Model for Mixed Porohyperelasticity with Transport, Swelling, and Growth.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Armstrong, Michelle Hine; Buganza Tepole, Adrián; Kuhl, Ellen; Simon, Bruce R; Vande Geest, Jonathan P

    2016-01-01

    The purpose of this manuscript is to establish a unified theory of porohyperelasticity with transport and growth and to demonstrate the capability of this theory using a finite element model developed in MATLAB. We combine the theories of volumetric growth and mixed porohyperelasticity with transport and swelling (MPHETS) to derive a new method that models growth of biological soft tissues. The conservation equations and constitutive equations are developed for both solid-only growth and solid/fluid growth. An axisymmetric finite element framework is introduced for the new theory of growing MPHETS (GMPHETS). To illustrate the capabilities of this model, several example finite element test problems are considered using model geometry and material parameters based on experimental data from a porcine coronary artery. Multiple growth laws are considered, including time-driven, concentration-driven, and stress-driven growth. Time-driven growth is compared against an exact analytical solution to validate the model. For concentration-dependent growth, changing the diffusivity (representing a change in drug) fundamentally changes growth behavior. We further demonstrate that for stress-dependent, solid-only growth of an artery, growth of an MPHETS model results in a more uniform hoop stress than growth in a hyperelastic model for the same amount of growth time using the same growth law. This may have implications in the context of developing residual stresses in soft tissues under intraluminal pressure. To our knowledge, this manuscript provides the first full description of an MPHETS model with growth. The developed computational framework can be used in concert with novel in-vitro and in-vivo experimental approaches to identify the governing growth laws for various soft tissues.

  17. Random-growth urban model with geographical fitness

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kii, Masanobu; Akimoto, Keigo; Doi, Kenji

    2012-12-01

    This paper formulates a random-growth urban model with a notion of geographical fitness. Using techniques of complex-network theory, we study our system as a type of preferential-attachment model with fitness, and we analyze its macro behavior to clarify the properties of the city-size distributions it predicts. First, restricting the geographical fitness to take positive values and using a continuum approach, we show that the city-size distributions predicted by our model asymptotically approach Pareto distributions with coefficients greater than unity. Then, allowing the geographical fitness to take negative values, we perform local coefficient analysis to show that the predicted city-size distributions can deviate from Pareto distributions, as is often observed in actual city-size distributions. As a result, the model we propose can generate a generic class of city-size distributions, including but not limited to Pareto distributions. For applications to city-population projections, our simple model requires randomness only when new cities are created, not during their subsequent growth. This property leads to smooth trajectories of city population growth, in contrast to other models using Gibrat’s law. In addition, a discrete form of our dynamical equations can be used to estimate past city populations based on present-day data; this fact allows quantitative assessment of the performance of our model. Further study is needed to determine appropriate formulas for the geographical fitness.

  18. Modelling the growth of a methanotrophic biofilm

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Arcangeli, J.-P.; Arvin, E.

    1999-01-01

    This article discusses the growth of methanotrophic biofilms. Several independent biofilm growths scenarios involving different inocula were examined. Biofilm growth, substrate removal and product formation were monitored throughout the experiments. Based on the oxygen consumption it was concluded...... that heterotrophs and nitrifiers co-existed with methanotrophs in the biofilm. Heterotrophic biomass grew on soluble polymers formed by the hydrolysis of dead biomass entrapped in the biofilm. Nitrifier populations developed because of the presence of ammonia in the mineral medium. Based on these experimental...... was performed on this model. It indicated that the most influential parameters were those related to the biofilm (i.e. density; solid-volume fraction; thickness). This suggests that in order to improve the model, further research regarding the biofilm structure and composition is needed....

  19. Modelling of tomato stem diameter growth rate based on physiological responses

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Li, L.; Tan, J.; Lv, T.

    2017-01-01

    The stem diameter is an important parameter describing the growth of tomato plant during vegetative growth stage. A stem diameter growth model was developed to predict the response of plant growth under different conditions. By analyzing the diurnal variations of stem diameter in tomato (Solanum lycopersicum L.), it was found that the stem diameter measured at 3:00 am was the representative value as the daily basis of tomato stem diameter. Based on the responses of growth rate in stem diameter to light and temperature, a linear regression relationship was applied to establish the stem diameter growth rate prediction model for the vegetative growth stage in tomato and which was further validated by experiment. The root mean square error (RMSE) and relative error (RE) were used to test the correlation between measured and modeled stem diameter variations. Results showed that the model can be used in prediction for stem diameter growth rate at vegetative growth stage in tomato. (author)

  20. A literature review on growth models and strategies: The missing link in entrepreneurial growth

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Syed Fida Hussain Shah

    2013-08-01

    Full Text Available This study focuses on the importance of growth models, growth strategies, role of knowledge management system in the formulation of effective strategy for the enterprises following growth. Choice of an appropriate growth strategy is at the heart of any successful entrepreneurial venture. Selection of a strategy may be effective for one entrepreneur while it is not for other. Choice of Growth Strategy depends on various different factors, organisational context and environment which may vary from enterprise to enterprise. Resource based view is very important consideration for the entrepreneurs on the path of growth. Evaluation of all kind of resources helps them to grow their enterprises successfully. Selection of an appropriate growth strategy allows the entrepreneurs in overcoming growth challenges and avoiding the growth reversals and setbacks.

  1. Modeling lodgepole pine radial growth relative to climate and genetics using universal growth-trend response functions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McLane, Sierra C; LeMay, Valerie M; Aitken, Sally N

    2011-04-01

    Forests strongly affect Earth's carbon cycles, making our ability to forecast forest-productivity changes associated with rising temperatures and changes in precipitation increasingly critical. In this study, we model the influence of climate on annual radial growth using lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta) trees grown for 34 years in a large provenance experiment in western Canada. We use a random-coefficient modeling approach to build universal growth-trend response functions that simultaneously incorporate the impacts of different provenance and site climates on radial growth trends under present and future annual (growth-year), summer, and winter climate regimes. This approach provides new depth to traditional quantitative genetics population response functions by illustrating potential changes in population dominance over time, as well as indicating the age and size at which annual growth begins declining for any population growing in any location under any present or future climate scenario within reason, given the ages and climatic conditions sampled. Our models indicate that lodgepole pine radial-growth levels maximize between 3.9 degrees and 5.1 degrees C mean growth-year temperature. This translates to productivity declining by the mid-21st century in southern and central British Columbia (BC), while increasing beyond the 2080s in northern BC and Yukon, as temperatures rise. Relative to summer climate indices, productivity is predicted to decline continuously through the 2080s in all locations, while relative to winter climate variables, the opposite trend occurs, with the growth increases caused by warmer winters potentially offsetting the summer losses. Trees from warmer provenances, i.e., from the center of the species range, perform best in nearly all of our present and future climate-scenario models. We recommend that similar models be used to analyze population growth trends relative to annual and intra-annual climate in other large-scale provenance

  2. Adjusting the Stems Regional Forest Growth Model to Improve Local Predictions

    Science.gov (United States)

    W. Brad Smith

    1983-01-01

    A simple procedure using double sampling is described for adjusting growth in the STEMS regional forest growth model to compensate for subregional variations. Predictive accuracy of the STEMS model (a distance-independent, individual tree growth model for Lake States forests) was improved by using this procedure

  3. Individual-Tree Diameter Growth Models for Mixed Nothofagus Second Growth Forests in Southern Chile

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Paulo C. Moreno

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Second growth forests of Nothofagus obliqua (roble, N. alpina (raulí, and N. dombeyi (coihue, known locally as RORACO, are among the most important native mixed forests in Chile. To improve the sustainable management of these forests, managers need adequate information and models regarding not only existing forest conditions, but their future states with varying alternative silvicultural activities. In this study, an individual-tree diameter growth model was developed for the full geographical distribution of the RORACO forest type. This was achieved by fitting a complete model by comparing two variable selection procedures: cross-validation (CV, and least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO regression. A small set of predictors successfully explained a large portion of the annual increment in diameter at breast height (DBH growth, particularly variables associated with competition at both the tree- and stand-level. Goodness-of-fit statistics for this final model showed an empirical coefficient of correlation (R2emp of 0.56, relative root mean square error of 44.49% and relative bias of −1.96% for annual DBH growth predictions, and R2emp of 0.98 and 0.97 for DBH projection at 6 and 12 years, respectively. This model constitutes a simple and useful tool to support management plans for these forest ecosystems.

  4. A size-structured model of bacterial growth and reproduction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ellermeyer, S F; Pilyugin, S S

    2012-01-01

    We consider a size-structured bacterial population model in which the rate of cell growth is both size- and time-dependent and the average per capita reproduction rate is specified as a model parameter. It is shown that the model admits classical solutions. The population-level and distribution-level behaviours of these solutions are then determined in terms of the model parameters. The distribution-level behaviour is found to be different from that found in similar models of bacterial population dynamics. Rather than convergence to a stable size distribution, we find that size distributions repeat in cycles. This phenomenon is observed in similar models only under special assumptions on the functional form of the size-dependent growth rate factor. Our main results are illustrated with examples, and we also provide an introductory study of the bacterial growth in a chemostat within the framework of our model.

  5. Modeling Urban Spatial Growth in Mountainous Regions of Western China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Guoping Huang

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available The scale and speed of urbanization in the mountainous regions of western China have received little attention from researchers. These cities are facing rapid population growth and severe environmental degradation. This study analyzed historical urban growth trends in this mountainous region to better understand the interaction between the spatial growth pattern and the mountainous topography. Three major factors—slope, accessibility, and land use type—were studied in light of their relationships with urban spatial growth. With the analysis of historical data as the basis, a conceptual urban spatial growth model was devised. In this model, slope, accessibility, and land use type together create resistance to urban growth, while accessibility controls the sequence of urban development. The model was tested and evaluated using historical data. It serves as a potential tool for planners to envision and assess future urban growth scenarios and their potential environmental impacts to make informed decisions.

  6. Stochastic growth logistic model with aftereffect for batch fermentation process

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rosli, Norhayati; Ayoubi, Tawfiqullah [Faculty of Industrial Sciences and Technology, Universiti Malaysia Pahang, Lebuhraya Tun Razak, 26300 Gambang, Pahang (Malaysia); Bahar, Arifah; Rahman, Haliza Abdul [Department of Mathematical Sciences, Faculty of Science, Universiti Teknologi Malaysia, 81310 Johor Bahru, Johor (Malaysia); Salleh, Madihah Md [Department of Biotechnology Industry, Faculty of Biosciences and Bioengineering, Universiti Teknologi Malaysia, 81310 Johor Bahru, Johor (Malaysia)

    2014-06-19

    In this paper, the stochastic growth logistic model with aftereffect for the cell growth of C. acetobutylicum P262 and Luedeking-Piret equations for solvent production in batch fermentation system is introduced. The parameters values of the mathematical models are estimated via Levenberg-Marquardt optimization method of non-linear least squares. We apply Milstein scheme for solving the stochastic models numerically. The effciency of mathematical models is measured by comparing the simulated result and the experimental data of the microbial growth and solvent production in batch system. Low values of Root Mean-Square Error (RMSE) of stochastic models with aftereffect indicate good fits.

  7. Stochastic growth logistic model with aftereffect for batch fermentation process

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rosli, Norhayati; Ayoubi, Tawfiqullah; Bahar, Arifah; Rahman, Haliza Abdul; Salleh, Madihah Md

    2014-06-01

    In this paper, the stochastic growth logistic model with aftereffect for the cell growth of C. acetobutylicum P262 and Luedeking-Piret equations for solvent production in batch fermentation system is introduced. The parameters values of the mathematical models are estimated via Levenberg-Marquardt optimization method of non-linear least squares. We apply Milstein scheme for solving the stochastic models numerically. The effciency of mathematical models is measured by comparing the simulated result and the experimental data of the microbial growth and solvent production in batch system. Low values of Root Mean-Square Error (RMSE) of stochastic models with aftereffect indicate good fits.

  8. Stochastic growth logistic model with aftereffect for batch fermentation process

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rosli, Norhayati; Ayoubi, Tawfiqullah; Bahar, Arifah; Rahman, Haliza Abdul; Salleh, Madihah Md

    2014-01-01

    In this paper, the stochastic growth logistic model with aftereffect for the cell growth of C. acetobutylicum P262 and Luedeking-Piret equations for solvent production in batch fermentation system is introduced. The parameters values of the mathematical models are estimated via Levenberg-Marquardt optimization method of non-linear least squares. We apply Milstein scheme for solving the stochastic models numerically. The effciency of mathematical models is measured by comparing the simulated result and the experimental data of the microbial growth and solvent production in batch system. Low values of Root Mean-Square Error (RMSE) of stochastic models with aftereffect indicate good fits

  9. Modelling and predicting growth of psychrotolerant pseudomonads in milk and cottage cheese

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Martinez Rios, Veronica; Østergaard, Nina Bjerre; Rosshaug, Per Sand

    .43. The acceptable simulation zone method showed the new model for cottage cheese to successfully predict growth of psychrotolerant pseudomonads at both constant and dynamic temperature storage conditions. The new models can be used together with the Food Spoilage and Safety Predictor (FSSP) software to predict......Mathematical models were developed and evaluated for growth of psychrotolerant pseudomonads in chilled milk and cottage cheese with cultured cream dressing. The mathematical models include the effect of temperature, pH, NaCl, lactic acid and sorbic acid. A simplified cardinal parameter growth model...... was developed based on growth in broth. Subsequently, the reference growth rate parameter (μref at 25 °C) was fitted to a total of 35 growth rates from cottage cheese with cultured cream dressing. Growth rate models for milk and cottage cheese were evaluated by comparison with data from literature and new...

  10. Brexit and the Politics of UK Growth Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rosamond, Ben

    2018-01-01

    Brexit has reopened and repoliticized the debate about future growth models for the UK economy. This contribution argues that this debate is built around historically specific path dependencies that reflect the particular character of public debate about British political economy, while also...... particular attention to the importance of the politics of support. It suggests that recent debate about growth models has been largely subsumed within the politics of Brexit, which has politicized that debate, albeit through the emergent political economy frames that Brexit has provoked. The paper explores...... suggesting that the debate around Brexit takes place at a very distinctive moment in the history of democratic capitalism in Europe. This combination gives the renewed politicization a specific and perhaps perverse character. The paper considers how we should approach debates about growth models, paying...

  11. Flower Power: Sunflowers as a Model for Logistic Growth

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fernandez, Eileen; Geist, Kristi A.

    2011-01-01

    Logistic growth displays an interesting pattern: It starts fast, exhibiting the rapid growth characteristic of exponential models. As time passes, it slows in response to constraints such as limited resources or reallocation of energy. The growth continues to slow until it reaches a limit, called capacity. When the growth describes a population,…

  12. Evaluating Non-Linear Regression Models in Analysis of Persian Walnut Fruit Growth

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    I. Karamatlou

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: Persian walnut (Juglans regia L. is a large, wind-pollinated, monoecious, dichogamous, long lived, perennial tree cultivated for its high quality wood and nuts throughout the temperate regions of the world. Growth model methodology has been widely used in the modeling of plant growth. Mathematical models are important tools to study the plant growth and agricultural systems. These models can be applied for decision-making anddesigning management procedures in horticulture. Through growth analysis, planning for planting systems, fertilization, pruning operations, harvest time as well as obtaining economical yield can be more accessible.Non-linear models are more difficult to specify and estimate than linear models. This research was aimed to studynon-linear regression models based on data obtained from fruit weight, length and width. Selecting the best models which explain that fruit inherent growth pattern of Persian walnut was a further goal of this study. Materials and Methods: The experimental material comprising 14 Persian walnut genotypes propagated by seed collected from a walnut orchard in Golestan province, Minoudasht region, Iran, at latitude 37◦04’N; longitude 55◦32’E; altitude 1060 m, in a silt loam soil type. These genotypes were selected as a representative sampling of the many walnut genotypes available throughout the Northeastern Iran. The age range of walnut trees was 30 to 50 years. The annual mean temperature at the location is16.3◦C, with annual mean rainfall of 690 mm.The data used here is the average of walnut fresh fruit and measured withgram/millimeter/day in2011.According to the data distribution pattern, several equations have been proposed to describesigmoidal growth patterns. Here, we used double-sigmoid and logistic–monomolecular models to evaluate fruit growth based on fruit weight and4different regression models in cluding Richards, Gompertz, Logistic and Exponential growth for evaluation

  13. Modelling of strongly coupled particle growth and aggregation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gruy, F; Touboul, E

    2013-01-01

    The mathematical modelling of the dynamics of particle suspension is based on the population balance equation (PBE). PBE is an integro-differential equation for the population density that is a function of time t, space coordinates and internal parameters. Usually, the particle is characterized by a unique parameter, e.g. the matter volume v. PBE consists of several terms: for instance, the growth rate and the aggregation rate. So, the growth rate is a function of v and t. In classical modelling, the growth and the aggregation are independently considered, i.e. they are not coupled. However, current applications occur where the growth and the aggregation are coupled, i.e. the change of the particle volume with time is depending on its initial value v 0 , that in turn is related to an aggregation event. As a consequence, the dynamics of the suspension does not obey the classical Von Smoluchowski equation. This paper revisits this problem by proposing a new modelling by using a bivariate PBE (with two internal variables: v and v 0 ) and by solving the PBE by means of a numerical method and Monte Carlo simulations. This is applied to a physicochemical system with a simple growth law and a constant aggregation kernel.

  14. Thermal models pertaining to continental growth

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Morgan, P.; Ashwal, L.

    1988-01-01

    Thermal models are important to understanding continental growth as the genesis, stabilization, and possible recycling of continental crust are closely related to the tectonic processes of the earth which are driven primarily by heat. The thermal energy budget of the earth was slowly decreasing since core formation, and thus the energy driving the terrestrial tectonic engine was decreasing. This fundamental observation was used to develop a logic tree defining the options for continental growth throughout earth history

  15. Models of the Economic Growth and their Relevance

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nicolae MOROIANU

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available Until few years ago, the economic growth was something perfect normal, part of an era marked by the transformation speed. Normality itself has been transformed and we currently are influenced by other rules, unknown yet, which should answer the question: “How do we return to the economic growth?” The economic growth and the models aiming to solve this problem concern the economic history even since its beginnings. In this paper we would like to find out what is the relevance that the well-known macroeconomic models still have and which might be their applicability level in a framework created by a black swan event type.

  16. Modelling subject-specific childhood growth using linear mixed-effect models with cubic regression splines.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grajeda, Laura M; Ivanescu, Andrada; Saito, Mayuko; Crainiceanu, Ciprian; Jaganath, Devan; Gilman, Robert H; Crabtree, Jean E; Kelleher, Dermott; Cabrera, Lilia; Cama, Vitaliano; Checkley, William

    2016-01-01

    Childhood growth is a cornerstone of pediatric research. Statistical models need to consider individual trajectories to adequately describe growth outcomes. Specifically, well-defined longitudinal models are essential to characterize both population and subject-specific growth. Linear mixed-effect models with cubic regression splines can account for the nonlinearity of growth curves and provide reasonable estimators of population and subject-specific growth, velocity and acceleration. We provide a stepwise approach that builds from simple to complex models, and account for the intrinsic complexity of the data. We start with standard cubic splines regression models and build up to a model that includes subject-specific random intercepts and slopes and residual autocorrelation. We then compared cubic regression splines vis-à-vis linear piecewise splines, and with varying number of knots and positions. Statistical code is provided to ensure reproducibility and improve dissemination of methods. Models are applied to longitudinal height measurements in a cohort of 215 Peruvian children followed from birth until their fourth year of life. Unexplained variability, as measured by the variance of the regression model, was reduced from 7.34 when using ordinary least squares to 0.81 (p linear mixed-effect models with random slopes and a first order continuous autoregressive error term. There was substantial heterogeneity in both the intercept (p modeled with a first order continuous autoregressive error term as evidenced by the variogram of the residuals and by a lack of association among residuals. The final model provides a parametric linear regression equation for both estimation and prediction of population- and individual-level growth in height. We show that cubic regression splines are superior to linear regression splines for the case of a small number of knots in both estimation and prediction with the full linear mixed effect model (AIC 19,352 vs. 19

  17. Stochastic Differential Equation-Based Flexible Software Reliability Growth Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. K. Kapur

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available Several software reliability growth models (SRGMs have been developed by software developers in tracking and measuring the growth of reliability. As the size of software system is large and the number of faults detected during the testing phase becomes large, so the change of the number of faults that are detected and removed through each debugging becomes sufficiently small compared with the initial fault content at the beginning of the testing phase. In such a situation, we can model the software fault detection process as a stochastic process with continuous state space. In this paper, we propose a new software reliability growth model based on Itô type of stochastic differential equation. We consider an SDE-based generalized Erlang model with logistic error detection function. The model is estimated and validated on real-life data sets cited in literature to show its flexibility. The proposed model integrated with the concept of stochastic differential equation performs comparatively better than the existing NHPP-based models.

  18. Investigation of various growth mechanisms of solid tumour growth within the linear-quadratic model for radiotherapy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    McAneney, H; O'Rourke, S F C

    2007-01-01

    The standard linear-quadratic survival model for radiotherapy is used to investigate different schedules of radiation treatment planning to study how these may be affected by different tumour repopulation kinetics between treatments. The laws for tumour cell repopulation include the logistic and Gompertz models and this extends the work of Wheldon et al (1977 Br. J. Radiol. 50 681), which was concerned with the case of exponential re-growth between treatments. Here we also consider the restricted exponential model. This has been successfully used by Panetta and Adam (1995 Math. Comput. Modelling 22 67) in the case of chemotherapy treatment planning.Treatment schedules investigated include standard fractionation of daily treatments, weekday treatments, accelerated fractionation, optimized uniform schedules and variation of the dosage and α/β ratio, where α and β are radiobiological parameters for the tumour tissue concerned. Parameters for these treatment strategies are extracted from the literature on advanced head and neck cancer, prostate cancer, as well as radiosensitive parameters. Standardized treatment protocols are also considered. Calculations based on the present analysis indicate that even with growth laws scaled to mimic initial growth, such that growth mechanisms are comparable, variation in survival fraction to orders of magnitude emerged. Calculations show that the logistic and exponential models yield similar results in tumour eradication. By comparison the Gompertz model calculations indicate that tumours described by this law result in a significantly poorer prognosis for tumour eradication than either the exponential or logistic models. The present study also shows that the faster the tumour growth rate and the higher the repair capacity of the cell line, the greater the variation in outcome of the survival fraction. Gaps in treatment, planned or unplanned, also accentuate the differences of the survival fraction given alternative growth

  19. Mathematical foundations of the dendritic growth models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Villacorta, José A; Castro, Jorge; Negredo, Pilar; Avendaño, Carlos

    2007-11-01

    At present two growth models describe successfully the distribution of size and topological complexity in populations of dendritic trees with considerable accuracy and simplicity, the BE model (Van Pelt et al. in J. Comp. Neurol. 387:325-340, 1997) and the S model (Van Pelt and Verwer in Bull. Math. Biol. 48:197-211, 1986). This paper discusses the mathematical basis of these models and analyzes quantitatively the relationship between the BE model and the S model assumed in the literature by developing a new explicit equation describing the BES model (a dendritic growth model integrating the features of both preceding models; Van Pelt et al. in J. Comp. Neurol. 387:325-340, 1997). In numerous studies it is implicitly presupposed that the S model is conditionally linked to the BE model (Granato and Van Pelt in Brain Res. Dev. Brain Res. 142:223-227, 2003; Uylings and Van Pelt in Network 13:397-414, 2002; Van Pelt, Dityatev and Uylings in J. Comp. Neurol. 387:325-340, 1997; Van Pelt and Schierwagen in Math. Biosci. 188:147-155, 2004; Van Pelt and Uylings in Network. 13:261-281, 2002; Van Pelt, Van Ooyen and Uylings in Modeling Dendritic Geometry and the Development of Nerve Connections, pp 179, 2000). In this paper we prove the non-exactness of this assumption, quantify involved errors and determine the conditions under which the BE and S models can be separately used instead of the BES model, which is more exact but considerably more difficult to apply. This study leads to a novel expression describing the BE model in an analytical closed form, much more efficient than the traditional iterative equation (Van Pelt et al. in J. Comp. Neurol. 387:325-340, 1997) in many neuronal classes. Finally we propose a new algorithm in order to obtain the values of the parameters of the BE model when this growth model is matched to experimental data, and discuss its advantages and improvements over the more commonly used procedures.

  20. Predicting growth of the healthy infant using a genome scale metabolic model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nilsson, Avlant; Mardinoglu, Adil; Nielsen, Jens

    2017-01-01

    An estimated 165 million children globally have stunted growth, and extensive growth data are available. Genome scale metabolic models allow the simulation of molecular flux over each metabolic enzyme, and are well adapted to analyze biological systems. We used a human genome scale metabolic model to simulate the mechanisms of growth and integrate data about breast-milk intake and composition with the infant's biomass and energy expenditure of major organs. The model predicted daily metabolic fluxes from birth to age 6 months, and accurately reproduced standard growth curves and changes in body composition. The model corroborates the finding that essential amino and fatty acids do not limit growth, but that energy is the main growth limiting factor. Disruptions to the supply and demand of energy markedly affected the predicted growth, indicating that elevated energy expenditure may be detrimental. The model was used to simulate the metabolic effect of mineral deficiencies, and showed the greatest growth reduction for deficiencies in copper, iron, and magnesium ions which affect energy production through oxidative phosphorylation. The model and simulation method were integrated to a platform and shared with the research community. The growth model constitutes another step towards the complete representation of human metabolism, and may further help improve the understanding of the mechanisms underlying stunting.

  1. Another brick in the cell wall: biosynthesis dependent growth model.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adelin Barbacci

    Full Text Available Expansive growth of plant cell is conditioned by the cell wall ability to extend irreversibly. This process is possible if (i a tensile stress is developed in the cell wall due to the coupling effect between turgor pressure and the modulation of its mechanical properties through enzymatic and physicochemical reactions and if (ii new cell wall elements can be synthesized and assembled to the existing wall. In other words, expansive growth is the result of coupling effects between mechanical, thermal and chemical energy. To have a better understanding of this process, models must describe the interplay between physical or mechanical variable with biological events. In this paper we propose a general unified and theoretical framework to model growth in function of energy forms and their coupling. This framework is based on irreversible thermodynamics. It is then applied to model growth of the internodal cell of Chara corallina modulated by changes in pressure and temperature. The results describe accurately cell growth in term of length increment but also in term of cell pectate biosynthesis and incorporation to the expanding wall. Moreover, the classical growth model based on Lockhart's equation such as the one proposed by Ortega, appears as a particular and restrictive case of the more general growth equation developed in this paper.

  2. Piecewise Linear-Linear Latent Growth Mixture Models with Unknown Knots

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kohli, Nidhi; Harring, Jeffrey R.; Hancock, Gregory R.

    2013-01-01

    Latent growth curve models with piecewise functions are flexible and useful analytic models for investigating individual behaviors that exhibit distinct phases of development in observed variables. As an extension of this framework, this study considers a piecewise linear-linear latent growth mixture model (LGMM) for describing segmented change of…

  3. Mechanical model for filament buckling and growth by phase ordering.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rey, Alejandro D; Abukhdeir, Nasser M

    2008-02-05

    A mechanical model of open filament shape and growth driven by phase ordering is formulated. For a given phase-ordering driving force, the model output is the filament shape evolution and the filament end-point kinematics. The linearized model for the slope of the filament is the Cahn-Hilliard model of spinodal decomposition, where the buckling corresponds to concentration fluctuations. Two modes are predicted: (i) sequential growth and buckling and (ii) simultaneous buckling and growth. The relation among the maximum buckling rate, filament tension, and matrix viscosity is given. These results contribute to ongoing work in smectic A filament buckling.

  4. Hyperbolastic modeling of tumor growth with a combined treatment of iodoacetate and dimethylsulphoxide

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Eby, Wayne M; Tabatabai, Mohammad A; Bursac, Zoran

    2010-01-01

    An understanding of growth dynamics of tumors is important in understanding progression of cancer and designing appropriate treatment strategies. We perform a comparative study of the hyperbolastic growth models with the Weibull and Gompertz models, which are prevalently used in the field of tumor growth. The hyperbolastic growth models H1, H2, and H3 are applied to growth of solid Ehrlich carcinoma under several different treatments. These are compared with results from Gompertz and Weibull models for the combined treatment. The growth dynamics of the solid Ehrlich carcinoma with the combined treatment are studied using models H1, H2, and H3, and the models are highly accurate in representing the growth. The growth dynamics are also compared with the untreated tumor, the tumor treated with only iodoacetate, and the tumor treated with only dimethylsulfoxide, and the combined treatment. The hyperbolastic models prove to be effective in representing and analyzing the growth dynamics of the solid Ehrlich carcinoma. These models are more precise than Gompertz and Weibull and show less error for this data set. The precision of H3 allows for its use in a comparative analysis of tumor growth rates between the various treatments

  5. Development and validation of an extensive growth and growth boundary model for psychrotolerant Lactobacillus spp. in seafood and meat products

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mejlholm, Ole; Dalgaard, Paw

    2013-01-01

    A new and extensive growth and growth boundary model for psychrotolerant Lactobacillus spp. was developed and validated for processed and unprocessed products of seafood and meat. The new model was developed by refitting and expanding an existing cardinal parameter model for growth and the growth...... of psychrotolerant Lactobacillus spp. was clearly demonstrated. The new model can be used to predict growth of psychrotolerant Lactobacillus spp. in seafood and meat products e.g. prediction of the time to a critical cell concentration of bacteria is considered useful for establishing the shelf life. In addition...... boundary of lactic acid bacteria (LAB) in processed seafood (O. Mejlholm and P. Dalgaard, J. Food Prot. 70. 2485–2497, 2007). Initially, to estimate values for the maximum specific growth rate at the reference temperature of 25°C (μref) and the theoretical minimum temperature that prevents growth...

  6. Self-similar measures in multi-sector endogenous growth models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    La Torre, Davide; Marsiglio, Simone; Mendivil, Franklin; Privileggi, Fabio

    2015-01-01

    We analyze two types of stochastic discrete time multi-sector endogenous growth models, namely a basic Uzawa–Lucas (1965, 1988) model and an extended three-sector version as in La Torre and Marsiglio (2010). As in the case of sustained growth the optimal dynamics of the state variables are not stationary, we focus on the dynamics of the capital ratio variables, and we show that, through appropriate log-transformations, they can be converted into affine iterated function systems converging to an invariant distribution supported on some (possibly fractal) compact set. This proves that also the steady state of endogenous growth models—i.e., the stochastic balanced growth path equilibrium—might have a fractal nature. We also provide some sufficient conditions under which the associated self-similar measures turn out to be either singular or absolutely continuous (for the three-sector model we only consider the singularity).

  7. Modeling and simulation of Si crystal growth from melt

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Liu, Lijun; Liu, Xin; Li, Zaoyang [National Engineering Research Center for Fluid Machinery and Compressors, School of Energy and Power Engineering, Xi' an Jiaotong University, Xi' an, Shaanxi 710049 (China); Miyazawa, Hiroaki; Nakano, Satoshi; Kakimoto, Koichi [Research Institute for Applied Mechanics, Kyushu University, Kasuga 816-8580 (Japan)

    2009-07-01

    A numerical simulator was developed with a global model of heat transfer for any crystal growth taking place at high temperature. Convective, conductive and radiative heat transfers in the furnace are solved together in a conjugated way by a finite volume method. A three-dimensional (3D) global model was especially developed for simulation of heat transfer in any crystal growth with 3D features. The model enables 3D global simulation be conducted with moderate requirement of computer resources. The application of this numerical simulator to a CZ growth and a directional solidification process for Si crystals, the two major production methods for crystalline Si for solar cells, was introduced. Some typical results were presented, showing the importance and effectiveness of numerical simulation in analyzing and improving these kinds of Si crystal growth processes from melt. (copyright 2009 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH and Co. KGaA, Weinheim) (orig.)

  8. Leptin administration affects growth and skeletal development in a rat intrauterine growth restriction model: preliminary study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bar-El Dadon, Shimrit; Shahar, Ron; Katalan, Vered; Monsonego-Ornan, Efrat; Reifen, Ram

    2011-09-01

    Skeletal abnormalities are one of the hallmarks of growth delay during gestation. The aim of this study was to determine changes induced by leptin in skeletal growth and development in a rat model of intrauterine growth retardation (IUGR) and to elucidate the possible underlying mechanisms. Intrauterine growth retardation was induced prepartum and the effects of leptin to mothers prenatally or to offspring postnatally were studied. Radii were harvested and tested mechanically and structurally. Tibias were evaluated for growth-plate morphometry. On day 40 postpartum, total bone length and mineral density and tibial growth-plate width and numbers of cells within its zones of offspring treated with leptin were significantly greater than in the control group. Postnatal leptin administration in an IUGR model improves the structural properties and elongation rate of bone. These findings could pave the way to preventing some phenotypic presentations of IUGR. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  9. Modelling breast cancer tumour growth for a stable disease population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Isheden, Gabriel; Humphreys, Keith

    2017-01-01

    Statistical models of breast cancer tumour progression have been used to further our knowledge of the natural history of breast cancer, to evaluate mammography screening in terms of mortality, to estimate overdiagnosis, and to estimate the impact of lead-time bias when comparing survival times between screen detected cancers and cancers found outside of screening programs. Multi-state Markov models have been widely used, but several research groups have proposed other modelling frameworks based on specifying an underlying biological continuous tumour growth process. These continuous models offer some advantages over multi-state models and have been used, for example, to quantify screening sensitivity in terms of mammographic density, and to quantify the effect of body size covariates on tumour growth and time to symptomatic detection. As of yet, however, the continuous tumour growth models are not sufficiently developed and require extensive computing to obtain parameter estimates. In this article, we provide a detailed description of the underlying assumptions of the continuous tumour growth model, derive new theoretical results for the model, and show how these results may help the development of this modelling framework. In illustrating the approach, we develop a model for mammography screening sensitivity, using a sample of 1901 post-menopausal women diagnosed with invasive breast cancer.

  10. Evaluating the Predictive Value of Growth Prediction Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Murphy, Daniel L.; Gaertner, Matthew N.

    2014-01-01

    This study evaluates four growth prediction models--projection, student growth percentile, trajectory, and transition table--commonly used to forecast (and give schools credit for) middle school students' future proficiency. Analyses focused on vertically scaled summative mathematics assessments, and two performance standards conditions (high…

  11. Optimal Patent Life in a Variety-Expansion Growth Model

    OpenAIRE

    Lin, Hwan C.

    2013-01-01

    This paper presents more channels through which the optimal patent life is determined in a R&D-based endogenous growth model that permits growth of new varieties of consumer goods over time. Its modeling features include an endogenous hazard rate facing incumbent monopolists, the prevalence of research congestion, and the aggregate welfare importance of product differentiation. As a result, a patent’s effective life is endogenized and less than its legal life. The model is calibrated to a glo...

  12. Residual Structures in Latent Growth Curve Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grimm, Kevin J.; Widaman, Keith F.

    2010-01-01

    Several alternatives are available for specifying the residual structure in latent growth curve modeling. Two specifications involve uncorrelated residuals and represent the most commonly used residual structures. The first, building on repeated measures analysis of variance and common specifications in multilevel models, forces residual variances…

  13. Forest Growth and Yield Models Viewed From a Different Perspective

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jeffery C. Goelz

    2002-01-01

    Typically, when different forms of growth and yield models are considered, they are grouped into convenient discrete classes. As a heuristic device, I chose to use a contrasting perspective, that all growth and yield models are diameter distribution models that merely differ in regard to which diameter distribution is employed and how the distribution is projected to...

  14. A generalized diffusion model for growth of nanoparticles synthesized by colloidal methods.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wen, Tianlong; Brush, Lucien N; Krishnan, Kannan M

    2014-04-01

    A nanoparticle growth model is developed to predict and guide the syntheses of monodisperse colloidal nanoparticles in the liquid phase. The model, without any a priori assumptions, is based on the Fick's law of diffusion, conservation of mass and the Gibbs-Thomson equation for crystal growth. In the limiting case, this model reduces to the same expression as the currently accepted model that requires the assumption of a diffusion layer around each nanoparticle. The present growth model bridges the two limiting cases of the previous model i.e. complete diffusion controlled and adsorption controlled growth of nanoparticles. Specifically, the results show that a monodispersion of nanoparticles can be obtained both with fast monomer diffusion and with surface reaction under conditions of small diffusivity to surface reaction constant ratio that results is growth 'focusing'. This comprehensive description of nanoparticle growth provides new insights and establishes the required conditions for fabricating monodisperse nanoparticles critical for a wide range of applications. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  15. Model for the growth of the world airline network

    Science.gov (United States)

    Verma, T.; Araújo, N. A. M.; Nagler, J.; Andrade, J. S.; Herrmann, H. J.

    2016-06-01

    We propose a probabilistic growth model for transport networks which employs a balance between popularity of nodes and the physical distance between nodes. By comparing the degree of each node in the model network and the World Airline Network (WAN), we observe that the difference between the two is minimized for α≈2. Interestingly, this is the value obtained for the node-node correlation function in the WAN. This suggests that our model explains quite well the growth of airline networks.

  16. An endogenous growth model with embodied energy-saving technical change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Van Zon, A.; Yetkiner, I. H.

    2003-01-01

    In this paper, we extend the Romer [Journal of Political Economy 98 (Part 2) (1990) S271] model in two ways. First we include energy consumption of intermediates. Second, intermediates become heterogeneous due to endogenous energy-saving technical change. We show that the resulting model can still generate steady state growth, but the growth rate depends negatively on the growth of real energy prices. The reason is that real energy price rises will lower the profitability of using new intermediate goods, and hence, the profitability of doing research, and therefore have a negative impact on growth. We also show that the introduction of an energy tax that is recycled in the form of an R and D subsidy may increase growth. We conclude that in order to have energy efficiency growth and output growth under rising real energy prices, a combination of R and D and energy policy is called for

  17. Effect of compression ratio, nozzle opening pressure, engine load, and butanol addition on nanoparticle emissions from a non-road diesel engine.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maurya, Rakesh Kumar; Saxena, Mohit Raj; Rai, Piyush; Bhardwaj, Aashish

    2018-05-01

    Currently, diesel engines are more preferred over gasoline engines due to their higher torque output and fuel economy. However, diesel engines confront major challenge of meeting the future stringent emission norms (especially soot particle emissions) while maintaining the same fuel economy. In this study, nanosize range soot particle emission characteristics of a stationary (non-road) diesel engine have been experimentally investigated. Experiments are conducted at a constant speed of 1500 rpm for three compression ratios and nozzle opening pressures at different engine loads. In-cylinder pressure history for 2000 consecutive engine cycles is recorded and averaged data is used for analysis of combustion characteristics. An electrical mobility-based fast particle sizer is used for analyzing particle size and mass distributions of engine exhaust particles at different test conditions. Soot particle distribution from 5 to 1000 nm was recorded. Results show that total particle concentration decreases with an increase in engine operating loads. Moreover, the addition of butanol in the diesel fuel leads to the reduction in soot particle concentration. Regression analysis was also conducted to derive a correlation between combustion parameters and particle number emissions for different compression ratios. Regression analysis shows a strong correlation between cylinder pressure-based combustion parameters and particle number emission.

  18. Using Calculus to Model the Growth of L. Plantarum Bacteria

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Erin Carey

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available Experimental data for the growth of Lactobacillus plantarum bacteria have been obtained over time, creating the need for mathematical means to model this data. We use the Gompertz model because it is a sigmoid function for a time series, where growth is slowest at the start and end of a time period. The Gompertz model is especially useful because it defines specific parameters that characterize the S-shaped curve. In addition, the Gompertz model uses relative growth, which is the logarithm of the given population compared to the initial population. This reflects the fact that bacteria grow exponentially. The important parameters that were found were the lag time and the asymptote.

  19. The Balance-of-Payments-Constrained Growth Model and the Limits to Export-Led Growth

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Robert A. Blecker

    2000-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper discusses how A. P. Thirlwall's model of balance-of-payments-constrained growth can be adapted to analyze the idea of a "fallacy of composition" in the export-led growth strategy of many developing countries. The Deaton-Muellbauer model of the Almost Ideal Demand System (AIDS is used to represent the adding-up constraints on individual countries' exports, when they are all trying to export competing products to the same foreign markets (i.e. newly industrializing countries are exporting similar types of manufactured goods to the OECD countries. The relevance of the model to the recent financial crises in developing countries and policy alternatives for redirecting development strategies are also discussed.

  20. Using a laboratory-based growth model to estimate mass- and temperature-dependent growth parameters across populations of juvenile Chinook Salmon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perry, Russell W.; Plumb, John M.; Huntington, Charles

    2015-01-01

    To estimate the parameters that govern mass- and temperature-dependent growth, we conducted a meta-analysis of existing growth data from juvenile Chinook Salmon Oncorhynchus tshawytscha that were fed an ad libitum ration of a pelleted diet. Although the growth of juvenile Chinook Salmon has been well studied, research has focused on a single population, a narrow range of fish sizes, or a narrow range of temperatures. Therefore, we incorporated the Ratkowsky model for temperature-dependent growth into an allometric growth model; this model was then fitted to growth data from 11 data sources representing nine populations of juvenile Chinook Salmon. The model fit the growth data well, explaining 98% of the variation in final mass. The estimated allometric mass exponent (b) was 0.338 (SE = 0.025), similar to estimates reported for other salmonids. This estimate of b will be particularly useful for estimating mass-standardized growth rates of juvenile Chinook Salmon. In addition, the lower thermal limit, optimal temperature, and upper thermal limit for growth were estimated to be 1.8°C (SE = 0.63°C), 19.0°C (SE = 0.27°C), and 24.9°C (SE = 0.02°C), respectively. By taking a meta-analytical approach, we were able to provide a growth model that is applicable across populations of juvenile Chinook Salmon receiving an ad libitum ration of a pelleted diet.

  1. Modelling grain growth in the framework of Rational Extended Thermodynamics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kertsch, Lukas; Helm, Dirk

    2016-01-01

    Grain growth is a significant phenomenon for the thermomechanical processing of metals. Since the mobility of the grain boundaries is thermally activated and energy stored in the grain boundaries is released during their motion, a mutual interaction with the process conditions occurs. To model such phenomena, a thermodynamic framework for the representation of thermomechanical coupling phenomena in metals including a microstructure description is required. For this purpose, Rational Extended Thermodynamics appears to be a useful tool. We apply an entropy principle to derive a thermodynamically consistent model for grain coarsening due to the growth and shrinkage of individual grains. Despite the rather different approaches applied, we obtain a grain growth model which is similar to existing ones and can be regarded as a thermodynamic extension of that by Hillert (1965) to more general systems. To demonstrate the applicability of the model, we compare our simulation results to grain growth experiments in pure copper by different authors, which we are able to reproduce very accurately. Finally, we study the implications of the energy release due to grain growth on the energy balance. The present unified approach combining a microstructure description and continuum mechanics is ready to be further used to develop more elaborate material models for complex thermo-chemo-mechanical coupling phenomena. (paper)

  2. Modelling grain growth in the framework of Rational Extended Thermodynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kertsch, Lukas; Helm, Dirk

    2016-05-01

    Grain growth is a significant phenomenon for the thermomechanical processing of metals. Since the mobility of the grain boundaries is thermally activated and energy stored in the grain boundaries is released during their motion, a mutual interaction with the process conditions occurs. To model such phenomena, a thermodynamic framework for the representation of thermomechanical coupling phenomena in metals including a microstructure description is required. For this purpose, Rational Extended Thermodynamics appears to be a useful tool. We apply an entropy principle to derive a thermodynamically consistent model for grain coarsening due to the growth and shrinkage of individual grains. Despite the rather different approaches applied, we obtain a grain growth model which is similar to existing ones and can be regarded as a thermodynamic extension of that by Hillert (1965) to more general systems. To demonstrate the applicability of the model, we compare our simulation results to grain growth experiments in pure copper by different authors, which we are able to reproduce very accurately. Finally, we study the implications of the energy release due to grain growth on the energy balance. The present unified approach combining a microstructure description and continuum mechanics is ready to be further used to develop more elaborate material models for complex thermo-chemo-mechanical coupling phenomena.

  3. Modeling plasma-assisted growth of graphene-carbon nanotube hybrid

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tewari, Aarti

    2016-01-01

    A theoretical model describing the growth of graphene-CNT hybrid in a plasma medium is presented. Using the model, the growth of carbon nanotube (CNT) on a catalyst particle and thereafter the growth of the graphene on the CNT is studied under the purview of plasma sheath and number density kinetics of different plasma species. It is found that the plasma parameter such as ion density; gas ratios and process parameter such as source power affect the CNT and graphene dimensions. The variation in growth rates of graphene and CNT under different plasma power, gas ratios, and ion densities is analyzed. Based on the results obtained, it can be concluded that higher hydrocarbon ion densities and gas ratios of hydrocarbon to hydrogen favor the growth of taller CNTs and graphene, respectively. In addition, the CNT tip radius reduces with hydrogen ion density and higher plasma power favors graphene with lesser thickness. The present study can help in better understanding of the graphene-CNT hybrid growth in a plasma medium.

  4. Modeling plasma-assisted growth of graphene-carbon nanotube hybrid

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tewari, Aarti [Department of Applied Physics, Delhi Technological University, Shahbad Daulatpur, Bawana Road, Delhi 110 042 (India)

    2016-08-15

    A theoretical model describing the growth of graphene-CNT hybrid in a plasma medium is presented. Using the model, the growth of carbon nanotube (CNT) on a catalyst particle and thereafter the growth of the graphene on the CNT is studied under the purview of plasma sheath and number density kinetics of different plasma species. It is found that the plasma parameter such as ion density; gas ratios and process parameter such as source power affect the CNT and graphene dimensions. The variation in growth rates of graphene and CNT under different plasma power, gas ratios, and ion densities is analyzed. Based on the results obtained, it can be concluded that higher hydrocarbon ion densities and gas ratios of hydrocarbon to hydrogen favor the growth of taller CNTs and graphene, respectively. In addition, the CNT tip radius reduces with hydrogen ion density and higher plasma power favors graphene with lesser thickness. The present study can help in better understanding of the graphene-CNT hybrid growth in a plasma medium.

  5. Development and validation of extensive growth and growth boundary models for psychrotolerant pseudomonads in seafood, meat and vegetable products

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Martinez Rios, Veronica; Dalgaard, Paw

    Extensive growth and growth boundary models were developed and validated for psychrotolerant pseudomonads growing in seafood, meat and vegetable products. The new models were developed by expanding anexisting cardinal parameter-type model for growth of pseudomonads in milk (Martinez-Rios et al......, when observed and predicted μmax -values were compared. Thus, on average μmax -values for seafood and meat products were overestimated by 14%. Additionally, the reference growth rate parameter μref25˚C was calibrated by fitting the model to 21 μmax -values in vegetable products. This resulted in a μref......25˚C -value of 0.54 1/h. The calibrated vegetable model wassuccessfully validated using 51 μmax -values for psychrotolerant pseudomonads in vegetables. Average bias and accuracy factor values of 1.24 and 1.38 were obtained, respectively. Lag time models were developed by using relative lag times from...

  6. Modelling growth curves of Nigerian indigenous normal feather ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    This study was conducted to predict the growth curve parameters using Bayesian Gompertz and logistic models and also to compare the two growth function in describing the body weight changes across age in Nigerian indigenous normal feather chicken. Each chick was wing-tagged at day old and body weights were ...

  7. A laboratory-calibrated model of coho salmon growth with utility for ecological analyses

    Science.gov (United States)

    Manhard, Christopher V.; Som, Nicholas A.; Perry, Russell W.; Plumb, John M.

    2018-01-01

    We conducted a meta-analysis of laboratory- and hatchery-based growth data to estimate broadly applicable parameters of mass- and temperature-dependent growth of juvenile coho salmon (Oncorhynchus kisutch). Following studies of other salmonid species, we incorporated the Ratkowsky growth model into an allometric model and fit this model to growth observations from eight studies spanning ten different populations. To account for changes in growth patterns with food availability, we reparameterized the Ratkowsky model to scale several of its parameters relative to ration. The resulting model was robust across a wide range of ration allocations and experimental conditions, accounting for 99% of the variation in final body mass. We fit this model to growth data from coho salmon inhabiting tributaries and constructed ponds in the Klamath Basin by estimating habitat-specific indices of food availability. The model produced evidence that constructed ponds provided higher food availability than natural tributaries. Because of their simplicity (only mass and temperature are required as inputs) and robustness, ration-varying Ratkowsky models have utility as an ecological tool for capturing growth in freshwater fish populations.

  8. Mathematical model for predicting molecular-beam epitaxy growth rates for wafer production

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shi, B.Q.

    2003-01-01

    An analytical mathematical model for predicting molecular-beam epitaxy (MBE) growth rates is reported. The mathematical model solves the mass-conservation equation for liquid sources in conical crucibles and predicts the growth rate by taking into account the effect of growth source depletion on the growth rate. Assumptions made for deducing the analytical model are discussed. The model derived contains only one unknown parameter, the value of which can be determined by using data readily available to MBE growers. Procedures are outlined for implementing the model in MBE production of III-V compound semiconductor device wafers. Results from use of the model to obtain targeted layer compositions and thickness of InP-based heterojunction bipolar transistor wafers are presented

  9. Orchestrated structure evolution: modeling growth-regulated nanomanufacturing

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Abbasi, Shaghayegh; Boehringer, Karl F [Department of Electrical Engineering, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98195-2500 (United States); Kitayaporn, Sathana; Schwartz, Daniel T, E-mail: karlb@washington.edu [Department of Chemical Engineering, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98195-2500 (United States)

    2011-04-22

    Orchestrated structure evolution (OSE) is a scalable manufacturing method that combines the advantages of top-down (tool-directed) and bottom-up (self-propagating) approaches. The method consists of a seed patterning step that defines where material nucleates, followed by a growth step that merges seeded islands into the final patterned thin film. We develop a model to predict the completed pattern based on a computationally efficient approximate Green's function solution of the diffusion equation plus a Voronoi diagram based approach that defines the final grain boundary structure. Experimental results rely on electron beam lithography to pattern the seeds, followed by the mass transfer limited growth of copper via electrodeposition. The seed growth model is compared with experimental results to quantify nearest neighbor seed-to-seed interactions as well as how seeds interact with the pattern boundary to impact the local growth rate. Seed-to-seed and seed-to-pattern interactions are shown to result in overgrowth of seeds on edges and corners of the shape, where seeds have fewer neighbors. We explore how local changes to the seed location can be used to improve the patterning quality without increasing the manufacturing cost. OSE is shown to enable a unique set of trade-offs between the cost, time, and quality of thin film patterning.

  10. Modeling of dislocation dynamics in germanium Czochralski growth

    Science.gov (United States)

    Artemyev, V. V.; Smirnov, A. D.; Kalaev, V. V.; Mamedov, V. M.; Sidko, A. P.; Podkopaev, O. I.; Kravtsova, E. D.; Shimansky, A. F.

    2017-06-01

    Obtaining very high-purity germanium crystals with low dislocation density is a practically difficult problem, which requires knowledge and experience in growth processes. Dislocation density is one of the most important parameters defining the quality of germanium crystal. In this paper, we have performed experimental study of dislocation density during 4-in. germanium crystal growth using the Czochralski method and comprehensive unsteady modeling of the same crystal growth processes, taking into account global heat transfer, melt flow and melt/crystal interface shape evolution. Thermal stresses in the crystal and their relaxation with generation of dislocations within the Alexander-Haasen model have been calculated simultaneously with crystallization dynamics. Comparison to experimental data showed reasonable agreement for the temperature, interface shape and dislocation density in the crystal between calculation and experiment.

  11. Modeling water scarcity over south Asia: Incorporating crop growth and irrigation models into the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Troy, Tara J.; Ines, Amor V. M.; Lall, Upmanu; Robertson, Andrew W.

    2013-04-01

    Large-scale hydrologic models, such as the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model, are used for a variety of studies, from drought monitoring to projecting the potential impact of climate change on the hydrologic cycle decades in advance. The majority of these models simulates the natural hydrological cycle and neglects the effects of human activities such as irrigation, which can result in streamflow withdrawals and increased evapotranspiration. In some parts of the world, these activities do not significantly affect the hydrologic cycle, but this is not the case in south Asia where irrigated agriculture has a large water footprint. To address this gap, we incorporate a crop growth model and irrigation model into the VIC model in order to simulate the impacts of irrigated and rainfed agriculture on the hydrologic cycle over south Asia (Indus, Ganges, and Brahmaputra basin and peninsular India). The crop growth model responds to climate signals, including temperature and water stress, to simulate the growth of maize, wheat, rice, and millet. For the primarily rainfed maize crop, the crop growth model shows good correlation with observed All-India yields (0.7) with lower correlations for the irrigated wheat and rice crops (0.4). The difference in correlation is because irrigation provides a buffer against climate conditions, so that rainfed crop growth is more tied to climate than irrigated crop growth. The irrigation water demands induce hydrologic water stress in significant parts of the region, particularly in the Indus, with the streamflow unable to meet the irrigation demands. Although rainfall can vary significantly in south Asia, we find that water scarcity is largely chronic due to the irrigation demands rather than being intermittent due to climate variability.

  12. Phase-field model of vapor-liquid-solid nanowire growth

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Nan; Upmanyu, Moneesh; Karma, Alain

    2018-03-01

    We present a multiphase-field model to describe quantitatively nanowire growth by the vapor-liquid-solid (VLS) process. The free-energy functional of this model depends on three nonconserved order parameters that distinguish the vapor, liquid, and solid phases and describe the energetic properties of various interfaces, including arbitrary forms of anisotropic γ plots for the solid-vapor and solid-liquid interfaces. The evolution equations for those order parameters describe basic kinetic processes including the rapid (quasi-instantaneous) equilibration of the liquid catalyst to a droplet shape with constant mean curvature, the slow incorporation of growth atoms at the droplet surface, and crystallization within the droplet. The standard constraint that the sum of the phase fields equals unity and the conservation of the number of catalyst atoms, which relates the catalyst volume to the concentration of growth atoms inside the droplet, are handled via separate Lagrange multipliers. An analysis of the model is presented that rigorously maps the phase-field equations to a desired set of sharp-interface equations for the evolution of the phase boundaries under the constraint of force balance at three-phase junctions (triple points) given by the Young-Herring relation that includes torque term related to the anisotropy of the solid-liquid and solid-vapor interface excess free energies. Numerical examples of growth in two dimensions are presented for the simplest case of vanishing crystalline anisotropy and the more realistic case of a solid-liquid γ plot with cusped minima corresponding to two sets of (10 ) and (11 ) facets. The simulations reproduce many of the salient features of nanowire growth observed experimentally, including growth normal to the substrate with tapering of the side walls, transitions between different growth orientations, and crawling growth along the substrate. They also reproduce different observed relationships between the nanowire growth

  13. Gompertzian stochastic model with delay effect to cervical cancer growth

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mazlan, Mazma Syahidatul Ayuni binti; Rosli, Norhayati binti; Bahar, Arifah

    2015-01-01

    In this paper, a Gompertzian stochastic model with time delay is introduced to describe the cervical cancer growth. The parameters values of the mathematical model are estimated via Levenberg-Marquardt optimization method of non-linear least squares. We apply Milstein scheme for solving the stochastic model numerically. The efficiency of mathematical model is measured by comparing the simulated result and the clinical data of cervical cancer growth. Low values of Mean-Square Error (MSE) of Gompertzian stochastic model with delay effect indicate good fits

  14. Gompertzian stochastic model with delay effect to cervical cancer growth

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mazlan, Mazma Syahidatul Ayuni binti; Rosli, Norhayati binti [Faculty of Industrial Sciences and Technology, Universiti Malaysia Pahang, Lebuhraya Tun Razak, 26300 Gambang, Pahang (Malaysia); Bahar, Arifah [Department of Mathematical Sciences, Faculty of Science, Universiti Teknologi Malaysia, 81310 Johor Bahru, Johor and UTM Centre for Industrial and Applied Mathematics (UTM-CIAM), Universiti Teknologi Malaysia, 81310 Johor Bahru, Johor (Malaysia)

    2015-02-03

    In this paper, a Gompertzian stochastic model with time delay is introduced to describe the cervical cancer growth. The parameters values of the mathematical model are estimated via Levenberg-Marquardt optimization method of non-linear least squares. We apply Milstein scheme for solving the stochastic model numerically. The efficiency of mathematical model is measured by comparing the simulated result and the clinical data of cervical cancer growth. Low values of Mean-Square Error (MSE) of Gompertzian stochastic model with delay effect indicate good fits.

  15. A stress driven growth model for soft tissue considering biological availability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Oller, S; Bellomo, F J; Nallim, L G; Armero, F

    2010-01-01

    Some of the key factors that regulate growth and remodeling of tissues are fundamentally mechanical. However, it is important to take into account the role of bioavailability together with the stresses and strains in the processes of normal or pathological growth. In this sense, the model presented in this work is oriented to describe the growth of soft biological tissue under 'stress driven growth' and depending on the biological availability of the organism. The general theoretical framework is given by a kinematic formulation in large strain combined with the thermodynamic basis of open systems. The formulation uses a multiplicative decomposition of deformation gradient, splitting it in a growth part and visco-elastic part. The strains due to growth are incompatible and are controlled by an unbalanced stresses related to a homeostatic state. Growth implies a volume change with an increase of mass maintaining constant the density. One of the most interesting features of the proposed model is the generation of new tissue taking into account the contribution of mass to the system controlled through biological availability. Because soft biological tissues in general have a hierarchical structure with several components (usually a soft matrix reinforced with collagen fibers), the developed growth model is suitable for the characterization of the growth of each component. This allows considering a different behavior for each of them in the context of a generalized theory of mixtures. Finally, we illustrate the response of the model in case of growth and atrophy with an application example.

  16. Age structure and capital dilution effects in neo-classical growth models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blanchet, D

    1988-01-01

    Economists often over estimate capital dilution effects when applying neoclassical growth models which use age structured population and depreciation of capital stock. This occurs because capital stock is improperly characterized. A standard model which assumes a constant depreciation of capital intimates that a population growth rate equal to a negative constant savings ratio is preferable to any higher growth rate. Growth rates which are lower than a negative constant savings ratio suggest an ever growing capital/labor ratio and an ever growing standard of living, even if people do not save. This is suggested because the natural reduction of the capital stock through depreciation is slower than the population decrease which is simply unrealistic. This model overlooks the fact that low or negative growth rates result in an ageing of the capital stock, and this ageing subsequently results in an increase of the overall rate of capital depreciation. In that overly simplistic model, depreciation was assumed independent of the age of the captial stock. Incorporating depreciation as a variable into a model allows a more symmetric treatment of capital. Using models with heterogenous capital, this article explores what occurs when more than 1 kind of capital good is involved in production and when these various captial goods have different lengths of life. Applying economic models, it also examines what occurs when the length of life of capital may vary. These variations correct the negative impact that population growth can have on per capital production and consumption.

  17. Physicochemical and toxicological characteristics of particulate matter emitted from a non-road diesel engine: comparative evaluation of biodiesel-diesel and butanol-diesel blends.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Zhi-Hui; Balasubramanian, Rajasekhar

    2014-01-15

    Combustion experiments were conducted to evaluate the effects of using blends of ultralow sulfur diesel (ULSD) with biodiesel or n-butanol on physicochemical and toxicological characteristics of particulate emissions from a non-road diesel engine. The results indicated that compared to ULSD, both the blended fuels could effectively reduce the particulate mass and elemental carbon emissions, with butanol being more effective than biodiesel. The proportion of organic carbon and volatile organic compounds in particles increased for both blended fuels. However, biodiesel blended fuels showed lower total particle-phase polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) emissions. The total number emissions of particles ≤560nm in diameter decreased gradually for the butanol blended fuels, but increased significantly for the biodiesel blended fuels. Both the blended fuels indicated lower soot ignition temperature and activation energy. All the particle extracts showed a decline in cell viability with the increased dose. However, the change in cell viability among test fuels is not statistically significant different with the exception of DB-4 (biodiesel-diesel blend containing 4% oxygen) used at 75% engine load. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  18. Modeling of multibranched crosslike crack growth

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Canessa, E.; Tanatar, B.

    1991-06-01

    Multibranched crosslike crack patterns formed in concentrically loaded square plates are studied in terms of fractal geometry, where the associated fractal dimension d f is calculated for their characterization. We apply simplest deterministic and stochastic approaches at a phenomenological level in an attempt to find generic features as guidelines for future experimental and theoretical work. The deterministic model for fracture propagation we apply, which is a variant of the discretized Laplace approach for randomly ramified fractal cracks proposed by Takayasu, reproduces the basic ingredients of observed complex fracture patters. The stochastic model, although is not strictly a model for crack propagation, is based on diffusion-limited aggregation (DLA) for fractal growth and produces slightly more realistic assessment of the crosslike growth of the cracks in asymmetric multibranches. Nevertheless, this simple ad-hoc DLA-version for modeling the present phenomena as well as the deterministic approach for fracture propagation give fractal dimensionality for the fracture pattern in accord with our estimations made from recent experimental data. It is found that there is a crossover of two fractal dimensions, corresponding to the core (higher d f ) and multibranched crosslike (lower D f ) regions, that contains loops, that are interpreted as representing different symmetry regions within the square plates of finite size. (author). 26 refs, 5 figs

  19. A smart growth evaluation model based on data envelopment analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Xiaokun; Guan, Yongyi

    2018-04-01

    With the rapid spread of urbanization, smart growth (SG) has attracted plenty of attention from all over the world. In this paper, by the establishment of index system for smart growth, data envelopment analysis (DEA) model was suggested to evaluate the SG level of the current growth situation in cities. In order to further improve the information of both radial direction and non-radial detection, we introduced the non-Archimedean infinitesimal to form C2GS2 control model. Finally, we evaluated the SG level in Canberra and identified a series of problems, which can verify the applicability of the model and provide us more improvement information.

  20. An individual-based growth and competition model for coastal redwood forest restoration

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Mantgem, Phillip J.; Das, Adrian J.

    2014-01-01

    Thinning treatments to accelerate coastal redwood forest stand development are in wide application, but managers have yet to identify prescriptions that might best promote Sequoia sempervirens (Lamb. ex D. Don) Endl. (redwood) growth. The creation of successful thinning prescriptions would be aided by identifying the underlying mechanisms governing how individual tree growth responds to competitive environments in coastal redwood forests. We created a spatially explicit individual-based model of tree competition and growth parameterized using surveys of upland redwood forests at Redwood National Park, California. We modeled competition for overstory trees (stems ≥ 20 cm stem diameter at breast height, 1.37 m (dbh)) as growth reductions arising from sizes, distances, and species identity of competitor trees. Our model explained up to half of the variation in individual tree growth, suggesting that neighborhood crowding is an important determinant of growth in this forest type. We used our model to simulate the effects of novel thinning prescriptions (e.g., 40% stand basal area removal) for redwood forest restoration, concluding that these treatments could lead to substantial growth releases, particularly for S. sempervirens. The results of this study, along with continued improvements to our model, will help to determine spacing and species composition that best encourage growth.

  1. Photosynthesis driven crop growth models for greenhouse cultivation; advances and bottlenecks.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Challa, H.; Heuvelink, E.

    1996-01-01

    In recent years considerable progress has been made in modelling growth of green-house crops. Nevertheless, the share of research in this field compared to crop modelling in general is only a few percent. Yet, crop growth models have a great potential for greenhouse production systems, because they

  2. Eye growth and myopia development: Unifying theory and Matlab model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hung, George K; Mahadas, Kausalendra; Mohammad, Faisal

    2016-03-01

    The aim of this article is to present an updated unifying theory of the mechanisms underlying eye growth and myopia development. A series of model simulation programs were developed to illustrate the mechanism of eye growth regulation and myopia development. Two fundamental processes are presumed to govern the relationship between physiological optics and eye growth: genetically pre-programmed signaling and blur feedback. Cornea/lens is considered to have only a genetically pre-programmed component, whereas eye growth is considered to have both a genetically pre-programmed and a blur feedback component. Moreover, based on the Incremental Retinal-Defocus Theory (IRDT), the rate of change of blur size provides the direction for blur-driven regulation. The various factors affecting eye growth are shown in 5 simulations: (1 - unregulated eye growth): blur feedback is rendered ineffective, as in the case of form deprivation, so there is only genetically pre-programmed eye growth, generally resulting in myopia; (2 - regulated eye growth): blur feedback regulation demonstrates the emmetropization process, with abnormally excessive or reduced eye growth leading to myopia and hyperopia, respectively; (3 - repeated near-far viewing): simulation of large-to-small change in blur size as seen in the accommodative stimulus/response function, and via IRDT as well as nearwork-induced transient myopia (NITM), leading to the development of myopia; (4 - neurochemical bulk flow and diffusion): release of dopamine from the inner plexiform layer of the retina, and the subsequent diffusion and relay of neurochemical cascade show that a decrease in dopamine results in a reduction of proteoglycan synthesis rate, which leads to myopia; (5 - Simulink model): model of genetically pre-programmed signaling and blur feedback components that allows for different input functions to simulate experimental manipulations that result in hyperopia, emmetropia, and myopia. These model simulation programs

  3. A Novel Modelling Approach for Predicting Forest Growth and Yield under Climate Change.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M Irfan Ashraf

    Full Text Available Global climate is changing due to increasing anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases. Forest managers need growth and yield models that can be used to predict future forest dynamics during the transition period of present-day forests under a changing climatic regime. In this study, we developed a forest growth and yield model that can be used to predict individual-tree growth under current and projected future climatic conditions. The model was constructed by integrating historical tree growth records with predictions from an ecological process-based model using neural networks. The new model predicts basal area (BA and volume growth for individual trees in pure or mixed species forests. For model development, tree-growth data under current climatic conditions were obtained using over 3000 permanent sample plots from the Province of Nova Scotia, Canada. Data to reflect tree growth under a changing climatic regime were projected with JABOWA-3 (an ecological process-based model. Model validation with designated data produced model efficiencies of 0.82 and 0.89 in predicting individual-tree BA and volume growth. Model efficiency is a relative index of model performance, where 1 indicates an ideal fit, while values lower than zero means the predictions are no better than the average of the observations. Overall mean prediction error (BIAS of basal area and volume growth predictions was nominal (i.e., for BA: -0.0177 cm(2 5-year(-1 and volume: 0.0008 m(3 5-year(-1. Model variability described by root mean squared error (RMSE in basal area prediction was 40.53 cm(2 5-year(-1 and 0.0393 m(3 5-year(-1 in volume prediction. The new modelling approach has potential to reduce uncertainties in growth and yield predictions under different climate change scenarios. This novel approach provides an avenue for forest managers to generate required information for the management of forests in transitional periods of climate change. Artificial intelligence

  4. Sensitivity Analysis of a Riparian Vegetation Growth Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michael Nones

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available The paper presents a sensitivity analysis of two main parameters used in a mathematic model able to evaluate the effects of changing hydrology on the growth of riparian vegetation along rivers and its effects on the cross-section width. Due to a lack of data in existing literature, in a past study the schematization proposed here was applied only to two large rivers, assuming steady conditions for the vegetational carrying capacity and coupling the vegetal model with a 1D description of the river morphology. In this paper, the limitation set by steady conditions is overcome, imposing the vegetational evolution dependent upon the initial plant population and the growth rate, which represents the potential growth of the overall vegetation along the watercourse. The sensitivity analysis shows that, regardless of the initial population density, the growth rate can be considered the main parameter defining the development of riparian vegetation, but it results site-specific effects, with significant differences for large and small rivers. Despite the numerous simplifications adopted and the small database analyzed, the comparison between measured and computed river widths shows a quite good capability of the model in representing the typical interactions between riparian vegetation and water flow occurring along watercourses. After a thorough calibration, the relatively simple structure of the code permits further developments and applications to a wide range of alluvial rivers.

  5. Growth/no growth models for Zygosaccharomyces rouxii associated with acidic, sweet intermediate moisture food products

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Cecilie Lykke Marvig; Kristiansen, Rikke M.; Nielsen, Dennis Sandris

    2015-01-01

    sugar and fat and a traditionally long self-life of sweet IMFs, the presence of Z. rouxii in the raw materials for IMFs has made assessment of the microbiological stability a significant hurdle in product development. Therefore, knowledge on growth/no growth boundaries of Z. rouxii in sweet IMFs...... is important to ensure microbiological stability and aid product development. Several models have been developed for fat based, sweet IMFs. However, fruit/sugar based IMFs, such as fruit based chocolate fillings and jams, have lower pH and aw than what is accounted for in previously developed models....... In the present study growth/no growth models for acidified sweet IMFs were developed with the variables aw (0.65-0.80), pH (2.5-4.0), ethanol (0-14.5% (w/w) in water phase) and time (0-90 days). Two different strains of Z. rouxii previously found to show pronounced resistance to the investigated variables were...

  6. On the growth and dissemination laws in a mathematical model of metastatic growth

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Benzekry Sébastien

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Metastasis represents one of the main clinical challenge in cancer treatment since it is associated with the majority of deaths. Recent technological advances allow quantification of the dynamics of the process by means of noninvasive techniques such as longitudinal tracking of bioluminescent cells. The metastatic process was simplified here into two essential components – dissemination and colonization – which were mathematically formalized in terms of simple quantitative laws. The resulting mathematical model was confronted to in vivo experimental data of spontaneous metastasis after primary tumor resection. We discuss how much information can be inferred from confrontation of theories to the data with emphasis on identifiability issues. It is shown that two mutually exclusive assumptions for the secondary growth law (namely same or different from the primary tumor growth law could fit equally well the data. Similarly, the fractal dimension coeffcient in the dissemination law could not be uniquely determined from data on total metastatic burden only. Together, these results delimitate the range of information that can be recovered from fitting data of metastatic growth to already simplified mathematical models.

  7. Constitutive modeling of stress-driven grain growth in nanocrystalline metals

    KAUST Repository

    Gürses, Ercan

    2013-02-08

    In this work, we present a variational multiscale model for grain growth in face-centered cubic nanocrystalline (nc) metals. In particular, grain-growth-induced stress softening and the resulting relaxation phenomena are addressed. The behavior of the polycrystal is described by a conventional Taylor-type averaging scheme in which the grains are treated as two-phase composites consisting of a grain interior phase and a grain boundary-affected zone. Furthermore, a grain-growth law that captures the experimentally observed characteristics of the grain coarsening phenomena is proposed. To this end, the grain size is not taken as constant and varies according to the proposed stress-driven growth law. Several parametric studies are conducted to emphasize the influence of the grain-growth rule on the overall macroscopic response. Finally, the model is shown to provide a good description of the experimentally observed grain-growth-induced relaxation in nc-copper. © 2013 IOP Publishing Ltd.

  8. Compatible growth models and stand density diagrams

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Smith, N.J.; Brand, D.G.

    1988-01-01

    This paper discusses a stand average growth model based on the self-thinning rule developed and used to generate stand density diagrams. Procedures involved in testing are described and results are included

  9. Bayesian modeling of Clostridium perfringens growth in beef-in-sauce products.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jaloustre, S; Cornu, M; Morelli, E; Noël, V; Delignette-Muller, M L

    2011-04-01

    Models on Clostridium perfringens growth which have been published to date have all been deterministic. A probabilistic model describing growth under non-isothermal conditions was thus proposed for predicting C. perfringens growth in beef-in-sauce products cooked and distributed in a French hospital. Model parameters were estimated from different types of data from various studies. A Bayesian approach was proposed to model the overall uncertainty regarding parameters and potential variability on the 'work to be done' (h(0)) during the germination, outgrowth and lag phase. Three models which differed according to their description of this parameter h(0) were tested. The model with inter-curve variability on h(0) was found to be the best one, on the basis of goodness-of-fit assessment and validation with literature data on results obtained under non-isothermal conditions. This model was used in two-dimensional Monte Carlo simulations to predict C. perfringens growth throughout the preparation of beef-in-sauce products, using temperature profiles recorded in a hospital kitchen. The median predicted growth was 7.8×10(-2) log(10) cfu·g(-1) (95% credibility interval [2.4×10(-2), 0.8]) despite the fact that for more than 50% of the registered temperature profiles cooling steps were longer than those required by French regulations. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  10. Integrated Intelligent Modeling, Design and Control of Crystal Growth Processes

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Prasad, V

    2000-01-01

    .... This MURI program took an integrated approach towards modeling, design and control of crystal growth processes and in conjunction with growth and characterization experiments developed much better...

  11. Mathematical modeling of liver metastases tumour growth and control with radiotherapy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Campbell, Adrienne; Sivakumaran, Thiru; Wong, Eugene; Davidson, Melanie; Lock, Michael

    2008-01-01

    Generating an optimized radiation treatment plan requires understanding the factors affecting tumour control. Mathematical models of tumour dynamics may help in future studies of factors predicting tumour sensitivity to radiotherapy. In this study, a time-dependent differential model, incorporating biological cancer markers, is presented to describe pre-treatment tumour growth, response to radiation, and recurrence. The model uses Gompertzian-Exponential growth to model pre-treatment tumour growth. The effect of radiotherapy is handled by a realistic cell-kill term that includes a volume-dependent change in tumour sensitivity. Post-treatment, a Gompertzian, accelerated, delayed repopulation is employed. As proof of concept, we examined the fit of the model's prediction using various liver enzyme levels as markers of metastatic liver tumour growth in a liver cancer patient. A tumour clonogen population model was formulated. Each enzyme was coupled to the same tumour population, and served as surrogates of the tumour. This dynamical model was solved numerically and compared to the measured enzyme levels. By minimizing the mean-squared error of the model enzyme predictions, we determined the following tumour model parameters: growth rate prior to treatment was 0.52% per day; the fractional radiation cell kill for the prescribed dose (60 Gy in 15 fractions) was 42% per day, and the tumour repopulation rate was 2.9% per day. These preliminary results provided the basis to test the model in a larger series of patients, to apply biological markers for improving the efficacy of radiotherapy by determining the underlying tumour dynamics.

  12. Model for analyzing growth kinetics of a slowly growing Mycobacterium sp

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lambrecht, R.S.; Carriere, J.F.; Collins, M.T.

    1988-01-01

    This report describes a simple method for quantifying viable mycobacteria and for determining generation time. We used statistical models and computer analysis of growth curves generated for the slowly growing mycobacterium Mycobacterium paratuberculosis under controlled conditions to derive a mathematical formula relating the dependent variable, growth, to the independent variables, log10 number of organisms in the inoculum (inoculum size) and incubation time. Growth was measured by a radiometric method which detects 14 CO 2 release during metabolism of a 14 C-labeled substrate. The radiometric method allowed for early detection of growth and detected as few as three viable bacteria. The coefficient of variation between culture vials inoculated with the same number of M. paratuberculosis was 0.083. Radiometric measurements were highly correlated to spectrophotometric and plate count methods for measuring growth (r = 0.962 and 0.992, respectively). The proportion of the total variability explained by the model in a goodness of fit test was 0.9994. Application of the model to broth cultures provided accurate estimates of the number of M. paratuberculosis (standard error = 0.21, log10 scale) and the growth rate (coefficient of variation, 0.03). Generation time was observed to be dependent upon the number of organisms in the inoculum. The model accurately described all phases of growth of M. paratuberculosis and can likely be applied to other slowly growing microorganisms

  13. Modification of the FRI crack growth model formulation from a mathematical viewpoint

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hashimoto, Tsuneyuki; Koshiishi, Masato

    2009-01-01

    The FRI model of crack growth, which incorporates mechanical properties into the slip oxidation mechanism of crack advance, is an extension of the well-known Ford-Andresen model. When the exponent of the oxidation current decay curve is set close to 1, however, the FRI model gives an infinite crack growth rate. Here, the oxidation decay curve integral is revised to eliminate this divergence, and modified crack growth rate equations are derived. Also presented here is a procedure for determining the oxidation current parameters from the curve-fitting to measurements of crack growth rate. Parameter value determination and crack growth calculations are illustrated for cold-worked Type 316L stainless steel. (author)

  14. Modeling the growth of Listeria monocytogenes in mold-ripened cheeses.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lobacz, Adriana; Kowalik, Jaroslaw; Tarczynska, Anna

    2013-06-01

    This study presents possible applications of predictive microbiology to model the safety of mold-ripened cheeses with respect to bacteria of the species Listeria monocytogenes during (1) the ripening of Camembert cheese, (2) cold storage of Camembert cheese at temperatures ranging from 3 to 15°C, and (3) cold storage of blue cheese at temperatures ranging from 3 to 15°C. The primary models used in this study, such as the Baranyi model and modified Gompertz function, were fitted to growth curves. The Baranyi model yielded the most accurate goodness of fit and the growth rates generated by this model were used for secondary modeling (Ratkowsky simple square root and polynomial models). The polynomial model more accurately predicted the influence of temperature on the growth rate, reaching the adjusted coefficients of multiple determination 0.97 and 0.92 for Camembert and blue cheese, respectively. The observed growth rates of L. monocytogenes in mold-ripened cheeses were compared with simulations run with the Pathogen Modeling Program (PMP 7.0, USDA, Wyndmoor, PA) and ComBase Predictor (Institute of Food Research, Norwich, UK). However, the latter predictions proved to be consistently overestimated and contained a significant error level. In addition, a validation process using independent data generated in dairy products from the ComBase database (www.combase.cc) was performed. In conclusion, it was found that L. monocytogenes grows much faster in Camembert than in blue cheese. Both the Baranyi and Gompertz models described this phenomenon accurately, although the Baranyi model contained a smaller error. Secondary modeling and further validation of the generated models highlighted the issue of usability and applicability of predictive models in the food processing industry by elaborating models targeted at a specific product or a group of similar products. Copyright © 2013 American Dairy Science Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  15. Dynamic predictive model for growth of Salmonella spp. in scrambled egg mix.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Lin; Cepeda, Jihan; Subbiah, Jeyamkondan; Froning, Glenn; Juneja, Vijay K; Thippareddi, Harshavardhan

    2017-06-01

    Liquid egg products can be contaminated with Salmonella spp. during processing. A dynamic model for the growth of Salmonella spp. in scrambled egg mix - high solids (SEM) was developed and validated. SEM was prepared and inoculated with ca. 2 log CFU/mL of a five serovar Salmonella spp. cocktail. Salmonella spp. growth data at isothermal temperatures (10, 15, 20, 25, 30, 35, 37, 39, 41, 43, 45, and 47 °C) in SEM were collected. Baranyi model was used (primary model) to fit growth data and the maximum growth rate and lag phase duration for each temperature were determined. A secondary model was developed with maximum growth rate as a function of temperature. The model performance measures, root mean squared error (RMSE, 0.09) and pseudo-R 2 (1.00) indicated good fit for both primary and secondary models. A dynamic model was developed by integrating the primary and secondary models and validated using two sinusoidal temperature profiles, 5-15 °C (low temperature) for 480 h and 10-40 °C (high temperature) for 48 h. The RMSE values for the sinusoidal low and high temperature profiles were 0.47 and 0.42 log CFU/mL, respectively. The model can be used to predict Salmonella spp. growth in case of temperature abuse during liquid egg processing. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

  16. Net energy analysis in a Ramsey–Hotelling growth model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Macías, Arturo; Matilla-García, Mariano

    2015-01-01

    This article presents a dynamic growth model with energy as an input in the production function. The available stock of energy resources is ordered by a quality parameter based on energy accounting: the “Energy Return on Energy Invested” (EROI). In our knowledge this is the first paper where EROI fits in a neoclassical growth model (with individual utility maximization and market equilibrium), establishing the economic use of “net energy analysis” on a firmer theoretical ground. All necessary concepts to link neoclassical economics and EROI are discussed before their use in the model, and a comparative static analysis of the steady states of a simplified version of the model is presented. - Highlights: • A neoclassical growth model with EROI (“Energy Return on Energy Invested”) is shown • All concepts linking neoclassical economics and net energy analysis are discussed • Any EROI decline can be compensated increasing gross activity in the energy sector. • The economic impact of EROI depends on some non-energy cost in the energy sector. • Comparative steady-state statics for different EROI levels is performed and discussed. • Policy implications are suggested.

  17. Modelling Eutectic Growth in Unmodified and Modified Near-Eutectic Al-Si Alloy

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Tiedje, Niels Skat; Hattel, Jesper Henri; Taylor, John A.

    2013-01-01

    growth parameters from the literature that depend on the type of modification (unmodified, Na-modified or Sr-modified) are used to describe differences in growth of the alloys. Modelling results are compared with solidification experiments where an Al-12.5wt%Si alloy was cast in unmodified, Na modified......A numerical model that describes solidification of primary aluminium grains and nucleation and growth of eutectic cells is used to analyse the solidification of an Al-12.5wt% Si alloy. Nucleation of eutectic cells is modelled using an Oldfield-type nucleation model where the number of nuclei...... and Sr modified forms. The model confirms experimental observations of how modification and alloy composition influence nucleation, growth and finally the size of eutectic cells in the alloys. Modelling results are used to explain how cooling conditions in the casting act together with the nuclei density...

  18. Natural Disasters in a Two-Sector Model of Endogenous Growth

    OpenAIRE

    Masako Ikefuji; Ryo Horii

    2006-01-01

    Using an endogenous growth model with physical and human capital accumulation, this paper considers the sustainability of economic growth when the use of a polluting input (e.g., fossil fuels) intensifies the risk of capital destruction through natural disasters. We find that growth is sustainable only if the tax rate on the polluting input increases over time. The long-term rate of economic growth follows an inverted V-shaped curve relative to the growth rate of the environmental tax, and it...

  19. Impacts of transportation sector emissions on future U.S. air quality in a changing climate. Part I: Projected emissions, simulation design, and model evaluation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Campbell, Patrick; Zhang, Yang; Yan, Fang; Lu, Zifeng; Streets, David

    2018-07-01

    Emissions from the transportation sector are rapidly changing worldwide; however, the interplay of such emission changes in the face of climate change are not as well understood. This two-part study examines the impact of projected emissions from the U.S. transportation sector (Part I) on ambient air quality in the face of climate change (Part II). In Part I of this study, we describe the methodology and results of a novel Technology Driver Model (see graphical abstract) that includes 1) transportation emission projections (including on-road vehicles, non-road engines, aircraft, rail, and ship) derived from a dynamic technology model that accounts for various technology and policy options under an IPCC emission scenario, and 2) the configuration/evaluation of a dynamically downscaled Weather Research and Forecasting/Community Multiscale Air Quality modeling system. By 2046-2050, the annual domain-average transportation emissions of carbon monoxide (CO), nitrogen oxides (NO x ), volatile organic compounds (VOCs), ammonia (NH 3 ), and sulfur dioxide (SO 2 ) are projected to decrease over the continental U.S. The decreases in gaseous emissions are mainly due to reduced emissions from on-road vehicles and non-road engines, which exhibit spatial and seasonal variations across the U.S. Although particulate matter (PM) emissions widely decrease, some areas in the U.S. experience relatively large increases due to increases in ship emissions. The on-road vehicle emissions dominate the emission changes for CO, NO x , VOC, and NH 3 , while emissions from both the on-road and non-road modes have strong contributions to PM and SO 2 emission changes. The evaluation of the baseline 2005 WRF simulation indicates that annual biases are close to or within the acceptable criteria for meteorological performance in the literature, and there is an overall good agreement in the 2005 CMAQ simulations of chemical variables against both surface and satellite observations. Copyright © 2018

  20. A review on pipeline corrosion, in-line inspection (ILI), and corrosion growth rate models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vanaei, H.R.; Eslami, A.; Egbewande, A.

    2017-01-01

    Pipelines are the very important energy transmission systems. Over time, pipelines can corrode. While corrosion could be detected by in-line inspection (ILI) tools, corrosion growth rate prediction in pipelines is usually done through corrosion rate models. For pipeline integrity management and planning selecting the proper corrosion ILI tool and also corrosion growth rate model is important and can lead to significant savings and safer pipe operation. In this paper common forms of pipeline corrosion, state of the art ILI tools, and also corrosion growth rate models are reviewed. The common forms of pipeline corrosion introduced in this paper are Uniform/General Corrosion, Pitting Corrosion, Cavitation and Erosion Corrosion, Stray Current Corrosion, Micro-Bacterial Influenced Corrosion (MIC). The ILI corrosion detection tools assessed in this study are Magnetic Flux Leakage (MFL), Circumferential MFL, Tri-axial MFL, and Ultrasonic Wall Measurement (UT). The corrosion growth rate models considered in this study are single-value corrosion rate model, linear corrosion growth rate model, non-linear corrosion growth rate model, Monte-Carlo method, Markov model, TD-GEVD, TI-GEVD model, Gamma Process, and BMWD model. Strengths and limitations of ILI detection tools, and also corrosion predictive models with some practical examples are discussed. This paper could be useful for those whom are supporting pipeline integrity management and planning. - Highlights: • Different forms of pipeline corrosion are explained. • Common In-Line Inspection (ILI) tools and corrosion growth rate models are introduced. • Strength and limitations of corrosion growth rate models/ILI tools are discussed. • For pipeline integrity management programs using more than one corrosion growth rate model/ILI tool is suggested.

  1. Numerical simulation of brain tumor growth model using two-stage ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    In the recent years, the study of glioma growth to be an active field of research Mathematical models that describe the proliferation and diffusion properties of the growth have been developed by many researchers. In this work, the performance analysis of two-stage Gauss-Seidel (TSGS) method to solve the glioma growth ...

  2. Transitions in a probabilistic interface growth model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Alves, S G; Moreira, J G

    2011-01-01

    We study a generalization of the Wolf–Villain (WV) interface growth model based on a probabilistic growth rule. In the WV model, particles are randomly deposited onto a substrate and subsequently move to a position nearby where the binding is strongest. We introduce a growth probability which is proportional to a power of the number n i of bindings of the site i: p i ∝n i ν . Through extensive simulations, in (1 + 1) dimensions, we find three behaviors depending on the ν value: (i) if ν is small, a crossover from the Mullins–Herring to the Edwards–Wilkinson (EW) universality class; (ii) for intermediate values of ν, a crossover from the EW to the Kardar–Parisi–Zhang (KPZ) universality class; and, finally, (iii) for large ν values, the system is always in the KPZ class. In (2 + 1) dimensions, we obtain three different behaviors: (i) a crossover from the Villain–Lai–Das Sarma to the EW universality class for small ν values; (ii) the EW class is always present for intermediate ν values; and (iii) a deviation from the EW class is observed for large ν values

  3. A new model for fungal hyphae growth using the thin viscous sheet equations

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    de Jong, T.G.; Prokert, G.; Hulshof, J.; Itou, H.; Kimura, M.; Chalupecký, V.; Ohtsuka, K.; Tagami, D.; Takada, A.

    2016-01-01

    In this paper, we model the growth of single nonbranching fungal hypha cell. The growth proceeds as an elongating expansion in a single direction. Modelling of hyphae growth consists out of two parts: transport of cell wall building material to the cell wall and growth of the cell wall as new cell

  4. Modelling hair follicle growth dynamics as an excitable medium.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Philip J Murray

    Full Text Available The hair follicle system represents a tractable model for the study of stem cell behaviour in regenerative adult epithelial tissue. However, although there are numerous spatial scales of observation (molecular, cellular, follicle and multi follicle, it is not yet clear what mechanisms underpin the follicle growth cycle. In this study we seek to address this problem by describing how the growth dynamics of a large population of follicles can be treated as a classical excitable medium. Defining caricature interactions at the molecular scale and treating a single follicle as a functional unit, a minimal model is proposed in which the follicle growth cycle is an emergent phenomenon. Expressions are derived, in terms of parameters representing molecular regulation, for the time spent in the different functional phases of the cycle, a formalism that allows the model to be directly compared with a previous cellular automaton model and experimental measurements made at the single follicle scale. A multi follicle model is constructed and numerical simulations are used to demonstrate excellent qualitative agreement with a range of experimental observations. Notably, the excitable medium equations exhibit a wider family of solutions than the previous work and we demonstrate how parameter changes representing altered molecular regulation can explain perturbed patterns in Wnt over-expression and BMP down-regulation mouse models. Further experimental scenarios that could be used to test the fundamental premise of the model are suggested. The key conclusion from our work is that positive and negative regulatory interactions between activators and inhibitors can give rise to a range of experimentally observed phenomena at the follicle and multi follicle spatial scales and, as such, could represent a core mechanism underlying hair follicle growth.

  5. Crystal plasticity modeling of irradiation growth in Zircaloy-2

    Science.gov (United States)

    Patra, Anirban; Tomé, Carlos N.; Golubov, Stanislav I.

    2017-08-01

    A physically based reaction-diffusion model is implemented in the visco-plastic self-consistent (VPSC) crystal plasticity framework to simulate irradiation growth in hcp Zr and its alloys. The reaction-diffusion model accounts for the defects produced by the cascade of displaced atoms, their diffusion to lattice sinks and the contribution to crystallographic strain at the level of single crystals. The VPSC framework accounts for intergranular interactions and irradiation creep, and calculates the strain in the polycrystalline ensemble. A novel scheme is proposed to model the simultaneous evolution of both, number density and radius, of irradiation-induced dislocation loops directly from experimental data of dislocation density evolution during irradiation. This framework is used to predict the irradiation growth behaviour of cold-worked Zircaloy-2 and trends compared to available experimental data. The role of internal stresses in inducing irradiation creep is discussed. Effects of grain size, texture and external stress on the coupled irradiation growth and creep behaviour are also studied and compared with available experimental data.

  6. Modelling the interaction between flooding events and economic growth

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Grames

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Socio-hydrology describes the interaction between the socio-economy and water. Recent models analyze the interplay of community risk-coping culture, flooding damage and economic growth (Di Baldassarre et al., 2013; Viglione et al., 2014. These models descriptively explain the feedbacks between socio-economic development and natural disasters like floods. Contrary to these descriptive models, our approach develops an optimization model, where the intertemporal decision of an economic agent interacts with the hydrological system. In order to build this first economic growth model describing the interaction between the consumption and investment decisions of an economic agent and the occurrence of flooding events, we transform an existing descriptive stochastic model into an optimal deterministic model. The intermediate step is to formulate and simulate a descriptive deterministic model. We develop a periodic water function to approximate the former discrete stochastic time series of rainfall events. Due to the non-autonomous exogenous periodic rainfall function the long-term path of consumption and investment will be periodic.

  7. Study of growth kinetic and modeling of ethanol production by ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    ... coefficient (0.96299). Based on Leudking-Piret model, it could be concluded that ethanol batch fermentation is a non-growth associated process. Key words: Kinetic parameters, simulation, cell growth, ethanol, Saccharomyces cerevisiae.

  8. Advection-diffusion model for normal grain growth and the stagnation of normal grain growth in thin films

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lou, C.

    2002-01-01

    An advection-diffusion model has been set up to describe normal grain growth. In this model grains are divided into different groups according to their topological classes (number of sides of a grain). Topological transformations are modelled by advective and diffusive flows governed by advective and diffusive coefficients respectively, which are assumed to be proportional to topological classes. The ordinary differential equations governing self-similar time-independent grain size distribution can be derived analytically from continuity equations. It is proved that the time-independent distributions obtained by solving the ordinary differential equations have the same form as the time-dependent distributions obtained by solving the continuity equations. The advection-diffusion model is extended to describe the stagnation of normal grain growth in thin films. Grain boundary grooving prevents grain boundaries from moving, and the correlation between neighbouring grains accelerates the stagnation of normal grain growth. After introducing grain boundary grooving and the correlation between neighbouring grains into the model, the grain size distribution is close to a lognormal distribution, which is usually found in experiments. A vertex computer simulation of normal grain growth has also been carried out to make a cross comparison with the advection-diffusion model. The result from the simulation did not verify the assumption that the advective and diffusive coefficients are proportional to topological classes. Instead, we have observed that topological transformations usually occur on certain topological classes. This suggests that the advection-diffusion model can be improved by making a more realistic assumption on topological transformations. (author)

  9. Developmental trajectories of adolescent popularity: a growth curve modelling analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cillessen, Antonius H N; Borch, Casey

    2006-12-01

    Growth curve modelling was used to examine developmental trajectories of sociometric and perceived popularity across eight years in adolescence, and the effects of gender, overt aggression, and relational aggression on these trajectories. Participants were 303 initially popular students (167 girls, 136 boys) for whom sociometric data were available in Grades 5-12. The popularity and aggression constructs were stable but non-overlapping developmental dimensions. Growth curve models were run with SAS MIXED in the framework of the multilevel model for change [Singer, J. D., & Willett, J. B. (2003). Applied longitudinal data analysis. Oxford, UK: Oxford University Press]. Sociometric popularity showed a linear change trajectory; perceived popularity showed nonlinear change. Overt aggression predicted low sociometric popularity but an increase in perceived popularity in the second half of the study. Relational aggression predicted a decrease in sociometric popularity, especially for girls, and continued high-perceived popularity for both genders. The effect of relational aggression on perceived popularity was the strongest around the transition from middle to high school. The importance of growth curve models for understanding adolescent social development was discussed, as well as specific issues and challenges of growth curve analyses with sociometric data.

  10. Research & development and growth: A Bayesian model averaging analysis

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Horváth, Roman

    2011-01-01

    Roč. 28, č. 6 (2011), s. 2669-2673 ISSN 0264-9993. [Society for Non-linear Dynamics and Econometrics Annual Conferencen. Washington DC, 16.03.2011-18.03.2011] R&D Projects: GA ČR GA402/09/0965 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z10750506 Keywords : Research and development * Growth * Bayesian model averaging Subject RIV: AH - Economic s Impact factor: 0.701, year: 2011 http://library.utia.cas.cz/separaty/2011/E/horvath-research & development and growth a bayesian model averaging analysis.pdf

  11. Stochastic Growth Models with No Discounting

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Sladký, Karel

    2007-01-01

    Roč. 15, č. 4 (2007), s. 88-98 ISSN 0572-3043 R&D Projects: GA ČR(CZ) GA402/06/0990; GA ČR GA402/05/0115 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z10750506 Keywords : economic dynamics * stochastic version of the Ramsey growth model * Markov decision processes Subject RIV: AH - Economics

  12. Mobile Source Emissions Regulatory Compliance Data Inventory

    Science.gov (United States)

    The Mobile Source Emissions Regulatory Compliance Data Inventory data asset contains measured summary compliance information on light-duty, heavy-duty, and non-road engine manufacturers by model, as well as fee payment data required by Title II of the 1990 Amendments to the Clean Air Act, to certify engines for sale in the U.S. and collect compliance certification fees. Data submitted by manufacturers falls into 12 industries: Heavy Duty Compression Ignition, Marine Spark Ignition, Heavy Duty Spark Ignition, Marine Compression Ignition, Snowmobile, Motorcycle & ATV, Non-Road Compression Ignition, Non-Road Small Spark Ignition, Light-Duty, Evaporative Components, Non-Road Large Spark Ignition, and Locomotive. Title II also requires the collection of fees from manufacturers submitting for compliance certification. Manufacturers submit data on an annual basis, to document engine model changes for certification. Manufacturers also submit compliance information on already certified in-use vehicles randomly selected by the EPA (1) year into their life and (4) years into their life to ensure that emissions systems continue to function appropriately over time.The EPA performs targeted confirmatory tests on approximately 15% of vehicles submitted for certification. Confirmatory data on engines is associated with its corresponding submission data to verify the accuracy of manufacturer submission beyond standard business rules.Section 209 of the 1990 Amendments to the Clea

  13. Correcting Model Fit Criteria for Small Sample Latent Growth Models with Incomplete Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    McNeish, Daniel; Harring, Jeffrey R.

    2017-01-01

    To date, small sample problems with latent growth models (LGMs) have not received the amount of attention in the literature as related mixed-effect models (MEMs). Although many models can be interchangeably framed as a LGM or a MEM, LGMs uniquely provide criteria to assess global data-model fit. However, previous studies have demonstrated poor…

  14. Possibilities and limitations of applying software reliability growth models to safety-critical software

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, Man Cheol; Jang, Seung Cheol; Ha, Jae Joo

    2007-01-01

    It is generally known that software reliability growth models such as the Jelinski-Moranda model and the Goel-Okumoto's Non-Homogeneous Poisson Process (NHPP) model cannot be applied to safety-critical software due to a lack of software failure data. In this paper, by applying two of the most widely known software reliability growth models to sample software failure data, we demonstrate the possibility of using the software reliability growth models to prove the high reliability of safety-critical software. The high sensitivity of a piece of software's reliability to software failure data, as well as a lack of sufficient software failure data, is also identified as a possible limitation when applying the software reliability growth models to safety-critical software

  15. Automatic Assessment of Craniofacial Growth in a Mouse Model of Crouzon Syndrome

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thorup, Signe Strann; Larsen, Rasmus; Darvann, Tron Andre

    2009-01-01

    for each mouse-type; growth models were created using linear interpolation and visualized as 3D animations. Spatial regions of significantly different growth were identified using the local False Discovery Rate method, estimating the expected percentage of false predictions in a set of predictions. For all......-rigid volumetric image registration was applied to micro-CT scans of ten 4-week and twenty 6-week euthanized mice for growth modeling. Each age group consisted of 50% normal and 50% Crouzon mice. Four 3D mean shapes, one for each mouse-type and age group were created. Extracting a dense field of growth vectors...... a tool for spatially detailed automatic phenotyping. MAIN OBJECTIVES OF PRESENTATION: We will present a 3D growth model of normal and Crouzon mice, and differences will be statistically and visually compared....

  16. Evolutionary model of the growth and size of firms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaldasch, Joachim

    2012-07-01

    The key idea of this model is that firms are the result of an evolutionary process. Based on demand and supply considerations the evolutionary model presented here derives explicitly Gibrat's law of proportionate effects as the result of the competition between products. Applying a preferential attachment mechanism for firms, the theory allows to establish the size distribution of products and firms. Also established are the growth rate and price distribution of consumer goods. Taking into account the characteristic property of human activities to occur in bursts, the model allows also an explanation of the size-variance relationship of the growth rate distribution of products and firms. Further the product life cycle, the learning (experience) curve and the market size in terms of the mean number of firms that can survive in a market are derived. The model also suggests the existence of an invariant of a market as the ratio of total profit to total revenue. The relationship between a neo-classic and an evolutionary view of a market is discussed. The comparison with empirical investigations suggests that the theory is able to describe the main stylized facts concerning the size and growth of firms.

  17. A mean-field game economic growth model

    KAUST Repository

    Gomes, Diogo A.; Lafleche, Laurent; Nurbekyan, Levon

    2016-01-01

    Here, we examine a mean-field game (MFG) that models the economic growth of a population of non-cooperative, rational agents. In this MFG, agents are described by two state variables - the capital and consumer goods they own. Each agent seeks

  18. A Probit Model for the State of the Greek GDP Growth

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stavros Degiannakis

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available The paper provides probability estimates of the state of the GDP growth. A regime-switching model defines the probability of the Greek GDP being in boom or recession. Then probit models extract the predictive information of a set of explanatory (economic and financial variables regarding the state of the GDP growth. A contemporaneous, as well as a lagged, relationship between the explanatory variables and the state of the GDP growth is conducted. The mean absolute distance (MAD between the probability of not being in recession and the probability estimated by the probit model is the function that evaluates the performance of the models. The probit model with the industrial production index and the realized volatility as the explanatory variables has the lowest MAD value of 6.43% (7.94% in the contemporaneous (lagged relationship.

  19. Incorporating an extended dendritic growth model into the CAFE model for rapidly solidified non-dilute alloys

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ma, Jie; Wang, Bo; Zhao, Shunli; Wu, Guangxin; Zhang, Jieyu; Yang, Zhiliang

    2016-01-01

    We have extended the dendritic growth model first proposed by Boettinger, Coriell and Trivedi (here termed EBCT) for microstructure simulations of rapidly solidified non-dilute alloys. The temperature-dependent distribution coefficient, obtained from calculations of phase equilibria, and the continuous growth model (CGM) were adopted in the present EBCT model to describe the solute trapping behaviors. The temperature dependence of the physical properties, which were not used in previous dendritic growth models, were also considered in the present EBCT model. These extensions allow the present EBCT model to be used for microstructure simulations of non-dilute alloys. The comparison of the present EBCT model with the BCT model proves that the considerations of the distribution coefficient and physical properties are necessary for microstructure simulations, especially for small particles with high undercoolings. Finally, the EBCT model was incorporated into the cellular automaton-finite element (CAFE) model to simulate microstructures of gas-atomized ASP30 high speed steel particles that were then compared with experimental results. Both the simulated and experimental results reveal that a columnar dendritic microstructure preferentially forms in small particles and an equiaxed microstructure forms otherwise. The applications of the present EBCT model provide a convenient way to predict the microstructure of non-dilute alloys. - Highlights: • A dendritic growth model was developed considering non-equilibrium distribution coefficient. • The physical properties with temperature dependence were considered in the extended model. • The extended model can be used to non-dilute alloys and the extensions are necessary in small particles. • Microstructure of ASP30 steel was investigated using the present model and verified by experiment.

  20. Incorporating an extended dendritic growth model into the CAFE model for rapidly solidified non-dilute alloys

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ma, Jie; Wang, Bo [State Key Laboratory of Advanced Special Steel, Shanghai University, Shanghai 200072 (China); Shanghai Engineering Technology Research Center of Special Casting, Shanghai 201605 (China); Zhao, Shunli [Research Institute, Baoshan Iron & Steel Co., Ltd, Shanghai 201900 (China); Wu, Guangxin [State Key Laboratory of Advanced Special Steel, Shanghai University, Shanghai 200072 (China); Shanghai Engineering Technology Research Center of Special Casting, Shanghai 201605 (China); Zhang, Jieyu, E-mail: zjy6162@staff.shu.edu.cn [State Key Laboratory of Advanced Special Steel, Shanghai University, Shanghai 200072 (China); Shanghai Engineering Technology Research Center of Special Casting, Shanghai 201605 (China); Yang, Zhiliang [State Key Laboratory of Advanced Special Steel, Shanghai University, Shanghai 200072 (China); Shanghai Engineering Technology Research Center of Special Casting, Shanghai 201605 (China)

    2016-05-25

    We have extended the dendritic growth model first proposed by Boettinger, Coriell and Trivedi (here termed EBCT) for microstructure simulations of rapidly solidified non-dilute alloys. The temperature-dependent distribution coefficient, obtained from calculations of phase equilibria, and the continuous growth model (CGM) were adopted in the present EBCT model to describe the solute trapping behaviors. The temperature dependence of the physical properties, which were not used in previous dendritic growth models, were also considered in the present EBCT model. These extensions allow the present EBCT model to be used for microstructure simulations of non-dilute alloys. The comparison of the present EBCT model with the BCT model proves that the considerations of the distribution coefficient and physical properties are necessary for microstructure simulations, especially for small particles with high undercoolings. Finally, the EBCT model was incorporated into the cellular automaton-finite element (CAFE) model to simulate microstructures of gas-atomized ASP30 high speed steel particles that were then compared with experimental results. Both the simulated and experimental results reveal that a columnar dendritic microstructure preferentially forms in small particles and an equiaxed microstructure forms otherwise. The applications of the present EBCT model provide a convenient way to predict the microstructure of non-dilute alloys. - Highlights: • A dendritic growth model was developed considering non-equilibrium distribution coefficient. • The physical properties with temperature dependence were considered in the extended model. • The extended model can be used to non-dilute alloys and the extensions are necessary in small particles. • Microstructure of ASP30 steel was investigated using the present model and verified by experiment.

  1. Constitutive modeling of stress-driven grain growth in nanocrystalline metals

    KAUST Repository

    Gü rses, Ercan; Wafai, Husam; El Sayed, Tamer S.

    2013-01-01

    the influence of the grain-growth rule on the overall macroscopic response. Finally, the model is shown to provide a good description of the experimentally observed grain-growth-induced relaxation in nc-copper. © 2013 IOP Publishing Ltd.

  2. Modeling of scale-dependent bacterial growth by chemical kinetics approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martínez, Haydee; Sánchez, Joaquín; Cruz, José-Manuel; Ayala, Guadalupe; Rivera, Marco; Buhse, Thomas

    2014-01-01

    We applied the so-called chemical kinetics approach to complex bacterial growth patterns that were dependent on the liquid-surface-area-to-volume ratio (SA/V) of the bacterial cultures. The kinetic modeling was based on current experimental knowledge in terms of autocatalytic bacterial growth, its inhibition by the metabolite CO2, and the relief of inhibition through the physical escape of the inhibitor. The model quantitatively reproduces kinetic data of SA/V-dependent bacterial growth and can discriminate between differences in the growth dynamics of enteropathogenic E. coli, E. coli JM83, and Salmonella typhimurium on one hand and Vibrio cholerae on the other hand. Furthermore, the data fitting procedures allowed predictions about the velocities of the involved key processes and the potential behavior in an open-flow bacterial chemostat, revealing an oscillatory approach to the stationary states.

  3. Modeling of Scale-Dependent Bacterial Growth by Chemical Kinetics Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Haydee Martínez

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available We applied the so-called chemical kinetics approach to complex bacterial growth patterns that were dependent on the liquid-surface-area-to-volume ratio (SA/V of the bacterial cultures. The kinetic modeling was based on current experimental knowledge in terms of autocatalytic bacterial growth, its inhibition by the metabolite CO2, and the relief of inhibition through the physical escape of the inhibitor. The model quantitatively reproduces kinetic data of SA/V-dependent bacterial growth and can discriminate between differences in the growth dynamics of enteropathogenic E. coli, E. coli  JM83, and Salmonella typhimurium on one hand and Vibrio cholerae on the other hand. Furthermore, the data fitting procedures allowed predictions about the velocities of the involved key processes and the potential behavior in an open-flow bacterial chemostat, revealing an oscillatory approach to the stationary states.

  4. Mudcake growth: Model and implications

    KAUST Repository

    Liu, Q.

    2017-12-15

    Oil and gas account for 60% of the world\\'s energy consumption. Drilling muds that are used to advance oil and gas wells must be engineered to avoid wellbore integrity problems associated with mud cake formation, to favor cake erosion during cementing, and to prevent partial differential sticking. We developed a robust mud cake growth model for water-based mud based on wide stress-range constitutive equations within a Lagrangian reference system to avoid non-natural moving boundary solutions. The comprehensive mud cake growth model readily accommodates environmental factors (e.g., temperature, pH, and ionic concentration) and defines the yield stress distribution for displacement-erosion analyses. Results show that the mud cake thickness is more sensitive to time than to filtration pressure, therefore, time controls the non-uniform distribution of mudcake thickness during drilling. Long filtration time, high permeability, high salinity, high in-situ temperature and low viscosity exacerbate fluid loss and give rise to thick filter cakes. The analysis of residual cake thickness during cement displacement must take into account the effective stress dependent mudcake formation and the time-dependent mud thixotropy. Thixotropy dominates the mud yield stress at high void ratios, e.g. e > 20. The offsetting force that causes differential pressure sticking increases sub-linearly as a power function of the still-time.

  5. Stochastic modeling of pitting corrosion: A new model for initiation and growth of multiple corrosion pits

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Valor, A.; Caleyo, F.; Alfonso, L.; Rivas, D.; Hallen, J.M.

    2007-01-01

    In this work, a new stochastic model capable of simulating pitting corrosion is developed and validated. Pitting corrosion is modeled as the combination of two stochastic processes: pit initiation and pit growth. Pit generation is modeled as a nonhomogeneous Poisson process, in which induction time for pit initiation is simulated as the realization of a Weibull process. In this way, the exponential and Weibull distributions can be considered as the possible distributions for pit initiation time. Pit growth is simulated using a nonhomogeneous Markov process. Extreme value statistics is used to find the distribution of maximum pit depths resulting from the combination of the initiation and growth processes for multiple pits. The proposed model is validated using several published experiments on pitting corrosion. It is capable of reproducing the experimental observations with higher quality than the stochastic models available in the literature for pitting corrosion

  6. Stochastic modeling of pitting corrosion: A new model for initiation and growth of multiple corrosion pits

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Valor, A. [Facultad de Fisica, Universidad de La Habana, San Lazaro y L, Vedado, 10400 Havana (Cuba); Caleyo, F. [Departamento de Ingenieria, Metalurgica, IPN-ESIQIE, UPALM Edif. 7, Zacatenco, Mexico DF 07738 (Mexico)]. E-mail: fcaleyo@gmail.com; Alfonso, L. [Departamento de Ingenieria, Metalurgica, IPN-ESIQIE, UPALM Edif. 7, Zacatenco, Mexico DF 07738 (Mexico); Rivas, D. [Departamento de Ingenieria, Metalurgica, IPN-ESIQIE, UPALM Edif. 7, Zacatenco, Mexico DF 07738 (Mexico); Hallen, J.M. [Departamento de Ingenieria, Metalurgica, IPN-ESIQIE, UPALM Edif. 7, Zacatenco, Mexico DF 07738 (Mexico)

    2007-02-15

    In this work, a new stochastic model capable of simulating pitting corrosion is developed and validated. Pitting corrosion is modeled as the combination of two stochastic processes: pit initiation and pit growth. Pit generation is modeled as a nonhomogeneous Poisson process, in which induction time for pit initiation is simulated as the realization of a Weibull process. In this way, the exponential and Weibull distributions can be considered as the possible distributions for pit initiation time. Pit growth is simulated using a nonhomogeneous Markov process. Extreme value statistics is used to find the distribution of maximum pit depths resulting from the combination of the initiation and growth processes for multiple pits. The proposed model is validated using several published experiments on pitting corrosion. It is capable of reproducing the experimental observations with higher quality than the stochastic models available in the literature for pitting corrosion.

  7. Multimodel Ensembles of Wheat Growth: Many Models are Better than One

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martre, Pierre; Wallach, Daniel; Asseng, Senthold; Ewert, Frank; Jones, James W.; Rotter, Reimund P.; Boote, Kenneth J.; Ruane, Alexander C.; Thorburn, Peter J.; Cammarano, Davide; hide

    2015-01-01

    Crop models of crop growth are increasingly used to quantify the impact of global changes due to climate or crop management. Therefore, accuracy of simulation results is a major concern. Studies with ensembles of crop model scan give valuable information about model accuracy and uncertainty, but such studies are difficult to organize and have only recently begun. We report on the largest ensemble study to date, of 27 wheat models tested in four contrasting locations for their accuracy in simulating multiple crop growth and yield variables. The relative error averaged over models was 2438 for the different end-of-season variables including grain yield (GY) and grain protein concentration (GPC). There was little relation between error of a model for GY or GPC and error for in-season variables. Thus, most models did not arrive at accurate simulations of GY and GPC by accurately simulating preceding growth dynamics. Ensemble simulations, taking either the mean (e-mean) or median (e-median) of simulated values, gave better estimates than any individual model when all variables were considered. Compared to individual models, e-median ranked first in simulating measured GY and third in GPC. The error of e-mean and e-median declined with an increasing number of ensemble members, with little decrease beyond 10 models. We conclude that multimodel ensembles can be used to create new estimators with improved accuracy and consistency in simulating growth dynamics. We argue that these results are applicable to other crop species, and hypothesize that they apply more generally to ecological system models.

  8. Multimodel Ensembles of Wheat Growth: More Models are Better than One

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martre, Pierre; Wallach, Daniel; Asseng, Senthold; Ewert, Frank; Jones, James W.; Rotter, Reimund P.; Boote, Kenneth J.; Ruane, Alex C.; Thorburn, Peter J.; Cammarano, Davide; hide

    2015-01-01

    Crop models of crop growth are increasingly used to quantify the impact of global changes due to climate or crop management. Therefore, accuracy of simulation results is a major concern. Studies with ensembles of crop models can give valuable information about model accuracy and uncertainty, but such studies are difficult to organize and have only recently begun. We report on the largest ensemble study to date, of 27 wheat models tested in four contrasting locations for their accuracy in simulating multiple crop growth and yield variables. The relative error averaged over models was 24-38% for the different end-of-season variables including grain yield (GY) and grain protein concentration (GPC). There was little relation between error of a model for GY or GPC and error for in-season variables. Thus, most models did not arrive at accurate simulations of GY and GPC by accurately simulating preceding growth dynamics. Ensemble simulations, taking either the mean (e-mean) or median (e-median) of simulated values, gave better estimates than any individual model when all variables were considered. Compared to individual models, e-median ranked first in simulating measured GY and third in GPC. The error of e-mean and e-median declined with an increasing number of ensemble members, with little decrease beyond 10 models. We conclude that multimodel ensembles can be used to create new estimators with improved accuracy and consistency in simulating growth dynamics. We argue that these results are applicable to other crop species, and hypothesize that they apply more generally to ecological system models.

  9. Sustainable growth of EU economies and Baltic context: Characteristics and modelling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Girts Karnitis

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available The united general growth strategy for all EU Member States, a common economic and political vision as well as location in the same geographic region provides a necessary basis for the benchmarking modelling of economies. The main objective of this study is determination of the functional regularities and drivers of the growth of EU economies and the context of the Baltic States in line with the general trend of the EU, as well as development of the growth model, which can be used for sustainable planning and prediction. Analysis of several regularly published analytical indexes suggests a thesis on innovation as the real basic driving force for EU economies and outlines Innovation Performance Index, which have a very strong compliance with the economic growth of particular country. At the same time study of the data set and methodology of the Index indicates space for further optimization. By use of several linear regression tools the growth model was created. It is based on three hard independent statistical indicators (predictors only; of course, these indicators is a peak of a complex pyramid. Despite of the simplicity of the model, the long-term correlation of fitted values with the real GDP per capita is extremely strong 0.961 – 0.987.

  10. Modeling of growth and laccase production by Pycnoporus sanguineus.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saat, Muhammad Naziz; Annuar, Mohamad Suffian Mohamad; Alias, Zazali; Chuan, Ling Tau; Chisti, Yusuf

    2014-05-01

    Production of extracellular laccase by the white-rot fungus Pycnoporus sanguineus was examined in batch submerged cultures in shake flasks, baffled shake flasks and a stirred tank bioreactor. The biomass growth in the various culture systems closely followed a logistic growth model. The production of laccase followed a Luedeking-Piret model. A modified Luedeking-Piret model incorporating logistic growth effectively described the consumption of glucose. Biomass productivity, enzyme productivity and substrate consumption were enhanced in baffled shake flasks relative to the cases for the conventional shake flasks. This was associated with improved oxygen transfer in the presence of the baffles. The best results were obtained in the stirred tank bioreactor. At 28 °C, pH 4.5, an agitation speed of 600 rpm and a dissolved oxygen concentration of ~25 % of air saturation, the laccase productivity in the bioreactor exceeded 19 U L(-1 )days(-1), or 1.5-fold better than the best case for the baffled shake flask. The final concentration of the enzyme was about 325 U L(-1).

  11. Tax Evasion and Economic Growth in an Endogenous Growth Model

    OpenAIRE

    加藤, 秀弥; KATO, Hideya

    2004-01-01

    This paper presents an endogenous growth model with tax evasion where government expenditures affect production. An individual evades a tax so as to maximize his or her utility, the tax authority controls the detection probability to maximize net tax revenue, and the government chooses the income tax rate to maximize individuals’ utility. The main conclusions are as follows. First, the optical income tax rate with tax evasion is higher than that without tax evasion. Second, the rise in a ...

  12. Growth models for Pinus patula in Angola | Delgado-Matas ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    This study developed growth models for Pinus patula Schiede ex Schltdl. et Cham. for the Central Highlands of Angola for simulating the development of stand characteristics. The model set included dominant height, individual-tree diameter increment, individual-tree height and self-thinning models. The study was based ...

  13. Strategies for the coupling of global and local crystal growth models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Derby, Jeffrey J.; Lun, Lisa; Yeckel, Andrew

    2007-05-01

    The modular coupling of existing numerical codes to model crystal growth processes will provide for maximum effectiveness, capability, and flexibility. However, significant challenges are posed to make these coupled models mathematically self-consistent and algorithmically robust. This paper presents sample results from a coupling of the CrysVUn code, used here to compute furnace-scale heat transfer, and Cats2D, used to calculate melt fluid dynamics and phase-change phenomena, to form a global model for a Bridgman crystal growth system. However, the strategy used to implement the CrysVUn-Cats2D coupling is unreliable and inefficient. The implementation of under-relaxation within a block Gauss-Seidel iteration is shown to be ineffective for improving the coupling performance in a model one-dimensional problem representative of a melt crystal growth model. Ideas to overcome current convergence limitations using approximations to a full Newton iteration method are discussed.

  14. Modeling the growth of Listeria monocytogenes in soft blue-white cheese

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rosshaug, Per Sand; Detmer, Ann; Ingmer, Hanne

    2012-01-01

    The aim of this study was to develop a predictive model simulating growth over time of the pathogenic bacterium Listeria monocytogenes in a soft blue-white cheese. The physicochemical properties in a matrix such as cheese are essential controlling factors influencing the growth of L. monocytogenes....... We developed a predictive tertiary model of the bacterial growth of L. monocytogenes as a function of temperature, pH, NaCl, and lactic acid. We measured the variations over time of the physicochemical properties in the cheese. Our predictive model was developed based on broth data produced...... production and retail conditions showed that the number of L. monocytogenes cells increases 3 to 3.5 log within the shelf life of the cheese....

  15. Kinetic models of cell growth, substrate utilization and bio ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    STORAGESEVER

    2008-05-02

    May 2, 2008 ... Aspergillus fumigatus. A simple model was proposed using the Logistic Equation for the growth, ... costs and also involved in less sophisticated fermentation ... apply and they are accurately proved that the model can express ...

  16. Transient Mobility on Submonolayer Island Growth: An Exploration of Asymptotic Effects in Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morales-Cifuentes, Josue; Einstein, Theodore L.; Pimpinelli, Alberto

    In studies of epitaxial growth, modeling of the smallest stable cluster (i+1 monomers, with i the critical nucleus size), is paramount in understanding growth dynamics. Our previous work has tackled submonolayer growth by modeling the effect of ballistic monomers, hot-precursors, on diffusive dynamics. Different scaling regimes and energies were predicted, with initial confirmation by applying to para-hexaphenyl submonolayer studies. Lingering questions about the applicability and behavior of the model are addressed. First, we show how an asymptotic approximation based on the growth exponent, α (N Fα) allows for robustness of modeling to experimental data; second, we answer questions about non-monotonicity by exploring the behavior of the growth exponent across realizable parameter spaces; third, we revisit our previous para-hexaphenyl work and examine relevant physical parameters, namely the speed of the hot-monomers. We conclude with an exploration of how the new asymptotic approximation can be used to strengthen the application of our model to other physical systems.

  17. Optimal Operational Monetary Policy Rules in an Endogenous Growth Model: a calibrated analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Arato, Hiroki

    2009-01-01

    This paper constructs an endogenous growth New Keynesian model and considers growth and welfare effect of Taylor-type (operational) monetary policy rules. The Ramsey equilibrium and optimal operational monetary policy rule is also computed. In the calibrated model, the Ramseyoptimal volatility of inflation rate is smaller than that in standard exogenous growth New Keynesian model with physical capital accumulation. Optimal operational monetary policy rule makes nominal interest rate respond s...

  18. Generic global regression models for growth prediction of Salmonella in ground pork and pork cuts

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Buschhardt, Tasja; Hansen, Tina Beck; Bahl, Martin Iain

    2017-01-01

    Introduction and Objectives Models for the prediction of bacterial growth in fresh pork are primarily developed using two-step regression (i.e. primary models followed by secondary models). These models are also generally based on experiments in liquids or ground meat and neglect surface growth....... It has been shown that one-step global regressions can result in more accurate models and that bacterial growth on intact surfaces can substantially differ from growth in liquid culture. Material and Methods We used a global-regression approach to develop predictive models for the growth of Salmonella....... One part of obtained logtransformed cell counts was used for model development and another for model validation. The Ratkowsky square root model and the relative lag time (RLT) model were integrated into the logistic model with delay. Fitted parameter estimates were compared to investigate the effect...

  19. Population growth and economic growth.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Narayana, D L

    1984-01-01

    This discussion of the issues relating to the problem posed by population explosion in the developing countries and economic growth in the contemporary world covers the following: predictions of economic and social trends; the Malthusian theory of population; the classical or stationary theory of population; the medical triage model; ecological disaster; the Global 2000 study; the limits to growth; critiques of the Limits to Growth model; nonrenewable resources; food and agriculture; population explosion and stabilization; space and ocean colonization; and the limits perspective. The Limits to Growth model, a general equilibrium anti-growth model, is the gloomiest economic model ever constructed. None of the doomsday models, the Malthusian theory, the classical stationary state, the neo-Malthusian medical triage model, the Global 2000 study, are so far reaching in their consequences. The course of events that followed the publication of the "Limits to Growth" in 1972 in the form of 2 oil shocks, food shock, pollution shock, and price shock seemed to bear out formally the gloomy predictions of the thesis with a remarkable speed. The 12 years of economic experience and the knowledge of resource trends postulate that even if the economic pressures visualized by the model are at work they are neither far reaching nor so drastic. Appropriate action can solve them. There are several limitations to the Limits to Growth model. The central theme of the model, which is overshoot and collapse, is unlikely to be the course of events. The model is too aggregative to be realistic. It exaggerates the ecological disaster arising out of the exponential growth of population and industry. The gross underestimation of renewable resources is a basic flaw of the model. The most critical weakness of the model is its gross underestimation of the historical trend of technological progress and the technological possiblities within industry and agriculture. The model does correctly emphasize

  20. Development and validation of a mathematical model for growth of pathogens in cut melons.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Di; Friedrich, Loretta M; Danyluk, Michelle D; Harris, Linda J; Schaffner, Donald W

    2013-06-01

    Many outbreaks of foodborne illness associated with the consumption of fresh-cut melons have been reported. The objective of our research was to develop a mathematical model that predicts the growth rate of Salmonella on fresh-cut cantaloupe over a range of storage temperatures and to validate that model by using Salmonella and Escherichia coli O157:H7 on cantaloupe, honeydew, and watermelon, using both new data and data from the published studies. The growth of Salmonella on honeydew and watermelon and E. coli O157:H7 on cantaloupe, honeydew, and watermelon was monitored at temperatures of 4 to 25°C. The Ratkowsky (or square-root model) was used to describe Salmonella growth on cantaloupe as a function of storage temperature. Our results show that the levels of Salmonella on fresh-cut cantaloupe with an initial load of 3 log CFU/g can reach over 7 log CFU/g at 25°C within 24 h. No growth was observed at 4°C. A linear correlation was observed between the square root of Salmonella growth rate and temperature, such that √growth rate = 0.026 × (T - 5.613), R(2) = 0.9779. The model was generally suitable for predicting the growth of both Salmonella and E. coli O157:H7 on cantaloupe, honeydew, and watermelon, for both new data and data from the published literature. When compared with existing models for growth of Salmonella, the new model predicts a theoretic minimum growth temperature similar to the ComBase Predictive Models and Pathogen Modeling Program models but lower than other food-specific models. The ComBase Prediction Models results are very similar to the model developed in this study. Our research confirms that Salmonella can grow quickly and reach high concentrations when cut cantaloupe is stored at ambient temperatures, without visual signs of spoilage. Our model provides a fast and cost-effective method to estimate the effects of storage temperature on fresh-cut melon safety and could also be used in subsequent quantitative microbial risk

  1. Escaping the snare of chronological growth and launching a free curve alternative: general deviance as latent growth model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wood, Phillip Karl; Jackson, Kristina M

    2013-08-01

    Researchers studying longitudinal relationships among multiple problem behaviors sometimes characterize autoregressive relationships across constructs as indicating "protective" or "launch" factors or as "developmental snares." These terms are used to indicate that initial or intermediary states of one problem behavior subsequently inhibit or promote some other problem behavior. Such models are contrasted with models of "general deviance" over time in which all problem behaviors are viewed as indicators of a common linear trajectory. When fit of the "general deviance" model is poor and fit of one or more autoregressive models is good, this is taken as support for the inhibitory or enhancing effect of one construct on another. In this paper, we argue that researchers consider competing models of growth before comparing deviance and time-bound models. Specifically, we propose use of the free curve slope intercept (FCSI) growth model (Meredith & Tisak, 1990) as a general model to typify change in a construct over time. The FCSI model includes, as nested special cases, several statistical models often used for prospective data, such as linear slope intercept models, repeated measures multivariate analysis of variance, various one-factor models, and hierarchical linear models. When considering models involving multiple constructs, we argue the construct of "general deviance" can be expressed as a single-trait multimethod model, permitting a characterization of the deviance construct over time without requiring restrictive assumptions about the form of growth over time. As an example, prospective assessments of problem behaviors from the Dunedin Multidisciplinary Health and Development Study (Silva & Stanton, 1996) are considered and contrasted with earlier analyses of Hussong, Curran, Moffitt, and Caspi (2008), which supported launch and snare hypotheses. For antisocial behavior, the FCSI model fit better than other models, including the linear chronometric growth curve

  2. Modeling Fish Growth in Low Dissolved Oxygen

    Science.gov (United States)

    Neilan, Rachael Miller

    2013-01-01

    This article describes a computational project designed for undergraduate students as an introduction to mathematical modeling. Students use an ordinary differential equation to describe fish weight and assume the instantaneous growth rate depends on the concentration of dissolved oxygen. Published laboratory experiments suggest that continuous…

  3. Revisiting a model of ontogenetic growth: estimating model parameters from theory and data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moses, Melanie E; Hou, Chen; Woodruff, William H; West, Geoffrey B; Nekola, Jeffery C; Zuo, Wenyun; Brown, James H

    2008-05-01

    The ontogenetic growth model (OGM) of West et al. provides a general description of how metabolic energy is allocated between production of new biomass and maintenance of existing biomass during ontogeny. Here, we reexamine the OGM, make some minor modifications and corrections, and further evaluate its ability to account for empirical variation on rates of metabolism and biomass in vertebrates both during ontogeny and across species of varying adult body size. We show that the updated version of the model is internally consistent and is consistent with other predictions of metabolic scaling theory and empirical data. The OGM predicts not only the near universal sigmoidal form of growth curves but also the M(1/4) scaling of the characteristic times of ontogenetic stages in addition to the curvilinear decline in growth efficiency described by Brody. Additionally, the OGM relates the M(3/4) scaling across adults of different species to the scaling of metabolic rate across ontogeny within species. In providing a simple, quantitative description of how energy is allocated to growth, the OGM calls attention to unexplained variation, unanswered questions, and opportunities for future research.

  4. Modeling and Forecasting Mortality With Economic Growth: A Multipopulation Approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boonen, Tim J; Li, Hong

    2017-10-01

    Research on mortality modeling of multiple populations focuses mainly on extrapolating past mortality trends and summarizing these trends by one or more common latent factors. This article proposes a multipopulation stochastic mortality model that uses the explanatory power of economic growth. In particular, we extend the Li and Lee model (Li and Lee 2005) by including economic growth, represented by the real gross domestic product (GDP) per capita, to capture the common mortality trend for a group of populations with similar socioeconomic conditions. We find that our proposed model provides a better in-sample fit and an out-of-sample forecast performance. Moreover, it generates lower (higher) forecasted period life expectancy for countries with high (low) GDP per capita than the Li and Lee model.

  5. Mediation Analysis in a Latent Growth Curve Modeling Framework

    Science.gov (United States)

    von Soest, Tilmann; Hagtvet, Knut A.

    2011-01-01

    This article presents several longitudinal mediation models in the framework of latent growth curve modeling and provides a detailed account of how such models can be constructed. Logical and statistical challenges that might arise when such analyses are conducted are also discussed. Specifically, we discuss how the initial status (intercept) and…

  6. Growth fluctuations in a class of deposition models

    CERN Document Server

    Balazs, M

    2003-01-01

    We compute the growth fluctuations in equilibrium of a wide class of deposition models. These models also serve as general frame to several nearest-neighbor particle jump processes, e.g. the simple exclusion or the zero range process, where our result turns to current fluctuations of the particles. We use martingale technique and coupling methods to show that, rescaled by time, the variance of the growth as seen by a deterministic moving observer has the form |V-C|*D, where V and C is the speed of the observer and the second class particle, respectively, and D is a constant connected to the equilibrium distribution of the model. Our main result is a generalization of Ferrari and Fontes' result for simple exclusion process. Law of large numbers and central limit theorem are also proven. We need some properties of the motion of the second class particle, which are known for simple exclusion and are partly known for zero range processes, and which are proven here for! a type of deposition models and also for a t...

  7. A search for distinctive features of demand-led growth models

    OpenAIRE

    Sergio Parrinello

    2014-01-01

    This paper aims at a critical and constructive assessment of some extensions of Keynes’s analysis of effective demand to the long period and growth. A criticism is addressed to a single-cause interpretation of the demand-led growth models and to the notion of normal capacity utilization adopted in such models. A positive argument tries to find a distinctive characterization of those extensions in the productive and financial conditions that make effective the autonomous changes in aggregate d...

  8. Spending Natural Resource Revenues in an Altruistic Growth Model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Frederiksen, Elisabeth Hermann

    This paper examines how revenues from a natural resource interact with growth and welfare in an overlapping generations model with altruism. The revenues are allocated between public productive services and direct transfers to members of society by spending policies. We analyze how these policies...... influence the dynamics, and how the dynamics are influenced by the abundance of the revenue. Abundant revenues may harm growth, but growth and welfare can be oppositely affected. We also provide the socially optimal policy. Overall, the analysis suggests that variation in the strength of altruism...

  9. Some Limits Using Random Slope Models to Measure Academic Growth

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daniel B. Wright

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available Academic growth is often estimated using a random slope multilevel model with several years of data. However, if there are few time points, the estimates can be unreliable. While using random slope multilevel models can lower the variance of the estimates, these procedures can produce more highly erroneous estimates—zero and negative correlations with the true underlying growth—than using ordinary least squares estimates calculated for each student or school individually. An example is provided where schools with increasing graduation rates are estimated to have negative growth and vice versa. The estimation is worse when the underlying data are skewed. It is recommended that there are at least six time points for estimating growth if using a random slope model. A combination of methods can be used to avoid some of the aberrant results if it is not possible to have six or more time points.

  10. Specification Search for Identifying the Correct Mean Trajectory in Polynomial Latent Growth Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Minjung; Kwok, Oi-Man; Yoon, Myeongsun; Willson, Victor; Lai, Mark H. C.

    2016-01-01

    This study investigated the optimal strategy for model specification search under the latent growth modeling (LGM) framework, specifically on searching for the correct polynomial mean or average growth model when there is no a priori hypothesized model in the absence of theory. In this simulation study, the effectiveness of different starting…

  11. Modeling growth from weaning to maturity in beef cattle breeds

    Science.gov (United States)

    To better understand growth trajectory and maturity differences between beef breeds, three models – Brody, spline, and quadratic – were fit to cow growth data, and resulting parameter estimates were evaluated for 3 breed categories – British, continental, and Brahman-influenced. The data were weight...

  12. A Schumpeterian Model of Entrepreneurship, Innovation, and Regional Economic Growth

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Batabyal, A.; Nijkamp, P.

    2012-01-01

    The authors provide the first theoretical analysis of a one-sector, discrete-time, Schumpeterian model of growth in a regional economy in which consumers are risk neutral, there is no population growth, monopolistic entrepreneurs produce intermediate goods, and a single consumption good is produced

  13. Dynamic Predictive Model for Growth of Bacillus cereus from Spores in Cooked Beans.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Juneja, Vijay K; Mishra, Abhinav; Pradhan, Abani K

    2018-02-01

    Kinetic growth data for Bacillus cereus grown from spores were collected in cooked beans under several isothermal conditions (10 to 49°C). Samples were inoculated with approximately 2 log CFU/g heat-shocked (80°C for 10 min) spores and stored at isothermal temperatures. B. cereus populations were determined at appropriate intervals by plating on mannitol-egg yolk-polymyxin agar and incubating at 30°C for 24 h. Data were fitted into Baranyi, Huang, modified Gompertz, and three-phase linear primary growth models. All four models were fitted to the experimental growth data collected at 13 to 46°C. Performances of these models were evaluated based on accuracy and bias factors, the coefficient of determination ( R 2 ), and the root mean square error. Based on these criteria, the Baranyi model best described the growth data, followed by the Huang, modified Gompertz, and three-phase linear models. The maximum growth rates of each primary model were fitted as a function of temperature using the modified Ratkowsky model. The high R 2 values (0.95 to 0.98) indicate that the modified Ratkowsky model can be used to describe the effect of temperature on the growth rates for all four primary models. The acceptable prediction zone (APZ) approach also was used for validation of the model with observed data collected during single and two-step dynamic cooling temperature protocols. When the predictions using the Baranyi model were compared with the observed data using the APZ analysis, all 24 observations for the exponential single rate cooling were within the APZ, which was set between -0.5 and 1 log CFU/g; 26 of 28 predictions for the two-step cooling profiles also were within the APZ limits. The developed dynamic model can be used to predict potential B. cereus growth from spores in beans under various temperature conditions or during extended chilling of cooked beans.

  14. Growth model of Au films on Ru(001)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Canessa, E.; Calmetta, A.

    1992-06-01

    In an attempt to find generic features on the fractal growth of Au films deposited on Ru(001), a simple simulation model based on irreversible diffusion-limited aggregation (DLA) is discussed. Highly irregular two-dimensional dentritic islands of Au particles that gradually grow on a larger host lattice of Ru particles and have fractal dimension d f approx. 1.70 each, are generated via a multiple had-hoc version of the DLA algorithm for single aggregates. Annealing effects on the islands morphology are reproduced assuming different sticking probabilities at nearest-neighbour lattice sites of Au films on Ru(001). Using simulation data, islands growth are described in analogy to diffusion-limited, precipitate growth with soft impingement of precipities. This leads to analyse thin film island growth kinetics in such fractal systems and to predict a main peak in scattering intensity patterns due to interisland interference. (author). 12 refs, 4 figs

  15. Modelling and predicting growth of psychrotolerant pseudomonads in milk and cottage cheese

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Martinez Rios, Veronica; Østergaard, Nina Bjerre; Gkogka, Elissavet

    2016-01-01

    Mathematical models were developed and evaluated for growth of psychrotolerant pseudomonads in chilled milk and in cottage cheese with cultured cream dressing. The mathematical models include the effect of temperature, pH, NaCl, lactic acid and sorbic acid. A simplified cardinal parameter growth ...

  16. Modelling and predicting growth of psychrotolerant pseudomonads in milk and cottage cheese

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Martinez Rios, Veronica; Østergaard, Nina Bjerre; Rosshaug, Per Sand

    Mathematical models were developed and evaluated for growth of psychrotolerant pseudomonads in chilled milk and cottage cheese with cultured cream dressing. The mathematical models include the effect of temperature, pH, NaCl, lactic acid and sorbic acid. A simplified cardinal parameter growth mod...

  17. NONLINEAR MODELS FOR DESCRIPTION OF CACAO FRUIT GROWTH WITH ASSUMPTION VIOLATIONS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    JOEL AUGUSTO MUNIZ

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Cacao (Theobroma cacao L. is an important fruit in the Brazilian economy, which is mainly cultivated in the southern State of Bahia. The optimal stage for harvesting is a major factor for fruit quality and the knowledge on its growth curves can help, especially in identifying the ideal maturation stage for harvesting. Nonlinear regression models have been widely used for description of growth curves. However, several studies in this subject do not consider the residual analysis, the existence of a possible dependence between longitudinal observations, or the sample variance heterogeneity, compromising the modeling quality. The objective of this work was to compare the fit of nonlinear regression models, considering residual analysis and assumption violations, in the description of the cacao (clone Sial-105 fruit growth. The data evaluated were extracted from Brito and Silva (1983, who conducted the experiment in the Cacao Research Center, Ilheus, State of Bahia. The variables fruit length, diameter and volume as a function of fruit age were studied. The use of weighting and incorporation of residual dependencies was efficient, since the modeling became more consistent, improving the model fit. Considering the first-order autoregressive structure, when needed, leads to significant reduction in the residual standard deviation, making the estimates more reliable. The Logistic model was the most efficient for the description of the cacao fruit growth.

  18. Stochastic Individual-Based Modeling of Bacterial Growth and Division Using Flow Cytometry

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Míriam R. García

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available A realistic description of the variability in bacterial growth and division is critical to produce reliable predictions of safety risks along the food chain. Individual-based modeling of bacteria provides the theoretical framework to deal with this variability, but it requires information about the individual behavior of bacteria inside populations. In this work, we overcome this problem by estimating the individual behavior of bacteria from population statistics obtained with flow cytometry. For this objective, a stochastic individual-based modeling framework is defined based on standard assumptions during division and exponential growth. The unknown single-cell parameters required for running the individual-based modeling simulations, such as cell size growth rate, are estimated from the flow cytometry data. Instead of using directly the individual-based model, we make use of a modified Fokker-Plank equation. This only equation simulates the population statistics in function of the unknown single-cell parameters. We test the validity of the approach by modeling the growth and division of Pediococcus acidilactici within the exponential phase. Estimations reveal the statistics of cell growth and division using only data from flow cytometry at a given time. From the relationship between the mother and daughter volumes, we also predict that P. acidilactici divide into two successive parallel planes.

  19. 3D Multiscale Modelling of Angiogenesis and Vascular Tumour Growth

    KAUST Repository

    Perfahl, H.; Byrne, H. M.; Chen, T.; Estrella, V.; Alarcó n, T.; Lapin, A.; Gatenby, R. A.; Gillies, R. J.; Lloyd, M. C.; Maini, P. K.; Reuss, M.; Owen, M. R.

    2012-01-01

    We present a three-dimensional, multiscale model of vascular tumour growth, which couples nutrient/growth factor transport, blood flow, angiogenesis, vascular remodelling, movement of and interactions between normal and tumour cells, and nutrient-dependent cell cycle dynamics within each cell. We present computational simulations which show how a vascular network may evolve and interact with tumour and healthy cells. We also demonstrate how our model may be combined with experimental data, to predict the spatio-temporal evolution of a vascular tumour.

  20. 3D Multiscale Modelling of Angiogenesis and Vascular Tumour Growth

    KAUST Repository

    Perfahl, H.

    2012-11-01

    We present a three-dimensional, multiscale model of vascular tumour growth, which couples nutrient/growth factor transport, blood flow, angiogenesis, vascular remodelling, movement of and interactions between normal and tumour cells, and nutrient-dependent cell cycle dynamics within each cell. We present computational simulations which show how a vascular network may evolve and interact with tumour and healthy cells. We also demonstrate how our model may be combined with experimental data, to predict the spatio-temporal evolution of a vascular tumour.

  1. Some Remarks on Stochastic Versions of the Ramsey Growth Model

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Sladký, Karel

    2012-01-01

    Roč. 19, č. 29 (2012), s. 139-152 ISSN 1212-074X R&D Projects: GA ČR GAP402/10/1610; GA ČR GAP402/10/0956; GA ČR GAP402/11/0150 Institutional support: RVO:67985556 Keywords : Economic dynamics * Ramsey growth model with disturbance * stochastic dynamic programming * multistage stochastic programs Subject RIV: BB - Applied Statistics, Operational Research http://library.utia.cas.cz/separaty/2013/E/sladky-some remarks on stochastic versions of the ramsey growth model.pdf

  2. Modeling growth of Clostridium perfringens in pea soup during cooling

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jong, de A.E.I.; Beumer, R.R.; Zwietering, M.H.

    2005-01-01

    Clostridium perfringens is a pathogen that mainly causes food poisoning outbreaks when large quantities of food are prepared. Therefore, a model was developed to predict the effect of different cooling procedures on the growth of this pathogen during cooling of food: Dutch pea soup. First, a growth

  3. Evaluation of HIV Risk Reduction and Intervention Programs via Latent Growth Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Jichuan; Siegal, Harvey A.; Falck, Russel S.; Carlson, Robert G.; Rahman, Ahmmed

    1999-01-01

    Demonstrates how the latent growth model can be applied to the evaluation of programs targeting HIV risk behavior among drug users. Multigroup piecewise latent growth models were fit to longitudinal data with three repeated response measures. Participants were 430 drug users and their sex partners. (SLD)

  4. System dynamics modelling and simulating the effects of intellectual capital on economic growth

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ivona Milić Beran

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available System dynamics modelling is one of the best scientific methods for modelling complex, nonlinear natural, economic and technical system dynamics as it enables both monitoring and assessment of the effects of intellectual capital on economic growth. Intellectual capital is defined as “the ability to transform knowledge and intangible assets into resources to create wealth for a company and a country.” Transformation of knowledge is crucial. Knowledge increases a country’s wealth only if its importance is recognized and applied differently from existing work practices. The aim of this paper is to show the efficiency of modelling system dynamics and simulating the effects of intellectual capital on economic growth. A computer simulation provided a mathematical model, providing practical insight into the dynamic behavior of the observed system, i.e. the analysis of economic growth and observation of mutual correlation between individual parameters. The results of the simulation are presented in graphical form. The dynamic model of the effects of intellectual capital on Croatia’s economic growth has been verified by comparing simulation results with existing data on economic growth.

  5. Applied model for the growth of the daytime mixed layer

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Batchvarova, E.; Gryning, Sven-Erik

    1991-01-01

    numerically. When the mixed layer is shallow or the atmosphere nearly neutrally stratified, the growth is controlled mainly by mechanical turbulence. When the layer is deep, its growth is controlled mainly by convective turbulence. The model is applied on a data set of the evolution of the height of the mixed...... layer in the morning hours, when both mechanical and convective turbulence contribute to the growth process. Realistic mixed-layer developments are obtained....

  6. Modelling planktic foraminifer growth and distribution using an ecophysiological multi-species approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    F. Lombard

    2011-04-01

    Full Text Available We present an eco-physiological model reproducing the growth of eight foraminifer species (Neogloboquadrina pachyderma, Neogloboquadrina incompta, Neogloboquadrina dutertrei, Globigerina bulloides, Globigerinoides ruber, Globigerinoides sacculifer, Globigerinella siphonifera and Orbulina universa. By using the main physiological rates of foraminifers (nutrition, respiration, symbiotic photosynthesis, this model estimates their growth as a function of temperature, light availability, and food concentration. Model parameters are directly derived or calibrated from experimental observations and only the influence of food concentration (estimated via Chlorophyll-a concentration was calibrated against field observations. Growth rates estimated from the model show positive correlation with observed abundance from plankton net data suggesting close coupling between individual growth and population abundance. This observation was used to directly estimate potential abundance from the model-derived growth. Using satellite data, the model simulate the dominant foraminifer species with a 70.5% efficiency when compared to a data set of 576 field observations worldwide. Using outputs of a biogeochemical model of the global ocean (PISCES instead of satellite images as forcing variables gives also good results, but with lower efficiency (58.9%. Compared to core tops observations, the model also correctly reproduces the relative worldwide abundance and the diversity of the eight species when using either satellite data either PISCES results. This model allows prediction of the season and water depth at which each species has its maximum abundance potential. This offers promising perspectives for both an improved quantification of paleoceanographic reconstructions and for a better understanding of the foraminiferal role in the marine carbon cycle.

  7. Predicting Madura cattle growth curve using non-linear model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Widyas, N.; Prastowo, S.; Widi, T. S. M.; Baliarti, E.

    2018-03-01

    Madura cattle is Indonesian native. It is a composite breed that has undergone hundreds of years of selection and domestication to reach nowadays remarkable uniformity. Crossbreeding has reached the isle of Madura and the Madrasin, a cross between Madura cows and Limousine semen emerged. This paper aimed to compare the growth curve between Madrasin and one type of pure Madura cows, the common Madura cattle (Madura) using non-linear models. Madura cattles are kept traditionally thus reliable records are hardly available. Data were collected from small holder farmers in Madura. Cows from different age classes (5years) were observed, and body measurements (chest girth, body length and wither height) were taken. In total 63 Madura and 120 Madrasin records obtained. Linear model was built with cattle sub-populations and age as explanatory variables. Body weights were estimated based on the chest girth. Growth curves were built using logistic regression. Results showed that within the same age, Madrasin has significantly larger body compared to Madura (plogistic models fit better for Madura and Madrasin cattle data; with the estimated MSE for these models were 39.09 and 759.28 with prediction accuracy of 99 and 92% for Madura and Madrasin, respectively. Prediction of growth curve using logistic regression model performed well in both types of Madura cattle. However, attempts to administer accurate data on Madura cattle are necessary to better characterize and study these cattle.

  8. STATISTICAL GROWTH MODELING OF LONGITUDINAL DT-MRI FOR REGIONAL CHARACTERIZATION OF EARLY BRAIN DEVELOPMENT.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sadeghi, Neda; Prastawa, Marcel; Fletcher, P Thomas; Gilmore, John H; Lin, Weili; Gerig, Guido

    2012-01-01

    A population growth model that represents the growth trajectories of individual subjects is critical to study and understand neurodevelopment. This paper presents a framework for jointly estimating and modeling individual and population growth trajectories, and determining significant regional differences in growth pattern characteristics applied to longitudinal neuroimaging data. We use non-linear mixed effect modeling where temporal change is modeled by the Gompertz function. The Gompertz function uses intuitive parameters related to delay, rate of change, and expected asymptotic value; all descriptive measures which can answer clinical questions related to growth. Our proposed framework combines nonlinear modeling of individual trajectories, population analysis, and testing for regional differences. We apply this framework to the study of early maturation in white matter regions as measured with diffusion tensor imaging (DTI). Regional differences between anatomical regions of interest that are known to mature differently are analyzed and quantified. Experiments with image data from a large ongoing clinical study show that our framework provides descriptive, quantitative information on growth trajectories that can be directly interpreted by clinicians. To our knowledge, this is the first longitudinal analysis of growth functions to explain the trajectory of early brain maturation as it is represented in DTI.

  9. A 2-D nucleation-growth model of spheroidal graphite

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lacaze, Jacques; Bourdie, Jacques; Castro-Román, Manuel Jesus

    2017-01-01

    Analysis of recent experimental investigations, in particular by transmission electron microscopy, suggests spheroidal graphite grows by 2-D nucleation of new graphite layers at the outer surface of the nodules. These layers spread over the surface along the prismatic direction of graphite which is the energetically preferred growth direction of graphite when the apparent growth direction of the nodules is along the basal direction of graphite. 2-D nucleation-growth models first developed for precipitation of pure substances are then adapted to graphite growth from the liquid in spheroidal graphite cast irons. Lateral extension of the new graphite layers is controlled by carbon diffusion in the liquid. This allows describing quantitatively previous experimental results giving strong support to this approach.

  10. Cellular modelling of secondary radial growth in conifer trees: application to Pinus radiata (D. Don).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Forest, Loïc; Demongeot, Jacques; Demongeota, Jacques

    2006-05-01

    The radial growth of conifer trees proceeds from the dynamics of a merismatic tissue called vascular cambium or cambium. Cambium is a thin layer of active proliferating cells. The purpose of this paper was to model the main characteristics of cambial activity and its consecutive radial growth. Cell growth is under the control of the auxin hormone indole-3-acetic. The model is composed of a discrete part, which accounts for cellular proliferation, and a continuous part involving the transport of auxin. Cambium is modeled in a two-dimensional cross-section by a cellular automaton that describes the set of all its constitutive cells. Proliferation is defined as growth and division of cambial cells under neighbouring constraints, which can eliminate some cells from the cambium. The cell-growth rate is determined from auxin concentration, calculated with the continuous model. We studied the integration of each elementary cambial cell activity into the global coherent movement of macroscopic morphogenesis. Cases of normal and abnormal growth of Pinus radiata (D. Don) are modelled. Abnormal growth includes deformed trees where gravity influences auxin transport, producing heterogeneous radial growth. Cross-sectional microscopic views are also provided to validate the model's hypothesis and results.

  11. Growth models and analysis of development

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mathur, G

    1979-10-01

    This paper deals with remnants of neoclassical elements in Keynesian and post-Keynesian thought, and attempts to demonstrate that the elimination of these elements from our modes of thinking would not impoverish economic analysis as a means of solving real problems. In the Keynesian analysis the causation from investment to savings is exhibited in terms of income determination. When put in terms of a capital-theory model, the vector of savings is represented in two ways: real savings and counterpart real savings. The former coincides with the investment vector and the latter with the vector of consumption goods foregone for diverting resources towards equipment making. Thus the Keynesian causation in capital theory terms makes the concept of national savings as an independent variable redudant. The Robinsonian causation in a golden age with full employment and its reversal of direction in a steady state with non-employment are then considered. But in each of these, variables like rate of savings and output/capital ratio are found to be dormant variables. They are termed as null variables which, being of no account in both full-employment and unemployment situations, could, without loss, be deleted from the repertory of analytical tools. The Harrod formula of warranted rate of growth, when put in causal form, thus becomes a redundant portion of economics of growth. The real determinants of the growth rate and real wage rate on which the analysis of growth or of development should be based, are also depicted.

  12. A grain boundary sliding model for cavitation, crack growth and ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    A model is presented for cavity growth, crack propagation and fracture resulting from grain boundary sliding (GBS) during high temperature creep deformation. The theory of cavity growth by GBS was based on energy balance criteria on the assumption that the matrix is sufficiently plastic to accommodate misfit strains ...

  13. Modeling Forest Biomass and Growth: Coupling Long-Term Inventory and Lidar Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Babcock, Chad; Finley, Andrew O.; Cook, Bruce D.; Weiskittel, Andrew; Woodall, Christopher W.

    2016-01-01

    Combining spatially-explicit long-term forest inventory and remotely sensed information from Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) datasets through statistical models can be a powerful tool for predicting and mapping above-ground biomass (AGB) at a range of geographic scales. We present and examine a novel modeling approach to improve prediction of AGB and estimate AGB growth using LiDAR data. The proposed model accommodates temporal misalignment between field measurements and remotely sensed data-a problem pervasive in such settings-by including multiple time-indexed measurements at plot locations to estimate AGB growth. We pursue a Bayesian modeling framework that allows for appropriately complex parameter associations and uncertainty propagation through to prediction. Specifically, we identify a space-varying coefficients model to predict and map AGB and its associated growth simultaneously. The proposed model is assessed using LiDAR data acquired from NASA Goddard's LiDAR, Hyper-spectral & Thermal imager and field inventory data from the Penobscot Experimental Forest in Bradley, Maine. The proposed model outperformed the time-invariant counterpart models in predictive performance as indicated by a substantial reduction in root mean squared error. The proposed model adequately accounts for temporal misalignment through the estimation of forest AGB growth and accommodates residual spatial dependence. Results from this analysis suggest that future AGB models informed using remotely sensed data, such as LiDAR, may be improved by adapting traditional modeling frameworks to account for temporal misalignment and spatial dependence using random effects.

  14. Thermodynamic model for growth mechanisms of multiwall carbon nanotubes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaatz, F. H.; Siegal, M. P.; Overmyer, D. L.; Provencio, P. P.; Tallant, D. R.

    2006-12-01

    Multiwall carbon nanotubes are grown via thermal chemical vapor deposition between temperatures of 630 and 830°C using acetylene in nitrogen as the carbon source. This process is modeled using classical thermodynamics to explain the total carbon deposition as a function of time and temperature. An activation energy of 1.60eV is inferred for nanotube growth after considering the carbon solubility term. Scanning electron microscopy shows growth with diameters increasing linearly with time. Transmission electron microscopy and Raman spectroscopy show multiwall nanotubes surrounded by a glassy-carbon sheath, which grows with increasing wall thickness as growth temperatures and times rise.

  15. Post-Keynesyen Talep Yönelimli Büyüme Modelleri(Post-Keynesian Demand Oriented Growth Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yelda Bugay TEKGÜL

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available Economic literature generally contains growth models dominated by classical/neo-classical approach. These models focused on the differences in the growth rates among countries in terms of supply of factors of production. Wheras capital accumulation and technical progress are viewed as the main determinant of the growth, increase in per-capita income is only determined by supply-side factors. Should the economy is in the position of under-employment and under-capacity, then these approaches are not capable of satisfactory explanation for the economic growth. Assumptions of supply-side approach are endogenous regarding the economic system and restricted by the demand. In an open economy, growth can be defined as a component of a Keynesian demand-oriented economic system and it is genarally called as Post-Keynesian growth models. These models have been developed on two main axes: “Export-led growth model”, introduced by N. Kaldor and “balance-of-payment constrained growth model”introduced by A.P.Thirwall in 1979. Export-led growth model is based on the assumption that internally determined productivity increases generate a virtous circle economy. Balance-of-payment constrained growth model, on the other hand, is based on the assumption that foreign trade deficit cannot continue forever and that long-run growth rate is a function of the export and elasticity of demand for import of the country. The objective of this paper is to discuss and critisize export-led growth and balance-of-payment constrained growth model.

  16. Growth models for six Eucalyptus species in Angola | Delgado ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    This study developed growth models for Eucalyptus saligna Sm., E. camaldulensis Dehnh., E. macarthurii H.Deane & Maiden, E. resinifera Sm., E. siderophloia Benth. and E. grandis Hill ex. Maiden, for the central highlands of Angola, and used these models to simulate the development of stand characteristics.

  17. A Minimalistic Resource Allocation Model to Explain Ubiquitous Increase in Protein Expression with Growth Rate.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Uri Barenholz

    Full Text Available Most proteins show changes in level across growth conditions. Many of these changes seem to be coordinated with the specific growth rate rather than the growth environment or the protein function. Although cellular growth rates, gene expression levels and gene regulation have been at the center of biological research for decades, there are only a few models giving a base line prediction of the dependence of the proteome fraction occupied by a gene with the specific growth rate. We present a simple model that predicts a widely coordinated increase in the fraction of many proteins out of the proteome, proportionally with the growth rate. The model reveals how passive redistribution of resources, due to active regulation of only a few proteins, can have proteome wide effects that are quantitatively predictable. Our model provides a potential explanation for why and how such a coordinated response of a large fraction of the proteome to the specific growth rate arises under different environmental conditions. The simplicity of our model can also be useful by serving as a baseline null hypothesis in the search for active regulation. We exemplify the usage of the model by analyzing the relationship between growth rate and proteome composition for the model microorganism E.coli as reflected in recent proteomics data sets spanning various growth conditions. We find that the fraction out of the proteome of a large number of proteins, and from different cellular processes, increases proportionally with the growth rate. Notably, ribosomal proteins, which have been previously reported to increase in fraction with growth rate, are only a small part of this group of proteins. We suggest that, although the fractions of many proteins change with the growth rate, such changes may be partially driven by a global effect, not necessarily requiring specific cellular control mechanisms.

  18. Forecasting Costa Rican Quarterly Growth with Mixed-frequency Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adolfo Rodríguez Vargas

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available We assess the utility of mixed-frequency models to forecast the quarterly growth rate of Costa Rican real GDP: we estimate bridge and MiDaS models with several lag lengths using information of the IMAE and compute forecasts (horizons of 0-4 quarters which are compared between themselves, with those of ARIMA models and with those resulting from forecast combinations. Combining the most accurate forecasts is most useful when forecasting in real time, whereas MiDaS forecasts are the best-performing overall: as the forecasting horizon increases, their precisionis affected relatively little; their success rates in predicting the direction of changes in the growth rate are stable, and several forecastsremain unbiased. In particular, forecasts computed from simple MiDaS with 9 and 12 lags are unbiased at all horizons and information sets assessed, and show the highest number of significant differences in forecasting ability in comparison with all other models.

  19. Reactor scale modeling of multi-walled carbon nanotube growth

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lombardo, Jeffrey J.; Chiu, Wilson K.S.

    2011-01-01

    As the mechanisms of carbon nanotube (CNT) growth becomes known, it becomes important to understand how to implement this knowledge into reactor scale models to optimize CNT growth. In past work, we have reported fundamental mechanisms and competing deposition regimes that dictate single wall carbon nanotube growth. In this study, we will further explore the growth of carbon nanotubes with multiple walls. A tube flow chemical vapor deposition reactor is simulated using the commercial software package COMSOL, and considered the growth of single- and multi-walled carbon nanotubes. It was found that the limiting reaction processes for multi-walled carbon nanotubes change at different temperatures than the single walled carbon nanotubes and it was shown that the reactions directly governing CNT growth are a limiting process over certain parameters. This work shows that the optimum conditions for CNT growth are dependent on temperature, chemical concentration, and the number of nanotube walls. Optimal reactor conditions have been identified as defined by (1) a critical inlet methane concentration that results in hydrogen abstraction limited versus hydrocarbon adsorption limited reaction kinetic regime, and (2) activation energy of reaction for a given reactor temperature and inlet methane concentration. Successful optimization of a CNT growth processes requires taking all of those variables into account.

  20. An exponential growth model with decreasing r captures bottom-up effects on the population growth of Aphis glycines Matsumura (Hemiptera: Aphididae)

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Costamagna, A.C.; Werf, van der W.; Bianchi, F.J.J.A.; Landis, D.A.

    2007-01-01

    1 There is ample evidence that the life history and population dynamics of aphids are closely linked to plant phenology. Based on life table studies, it has been proposed that the growth of aphid populations could be modeled with an exponential growth model, with r decreasing linearly with time.

  1. Modelling and predicting growth of psycrotolerant pseudomonads in milk and cottage cheese

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Martinez Rios, Veronica; Østergaard, Nina Bjerre; Rosshaug, Per Sand

    2015-01-01

    Introduction: Predictive food microbiology models have the potential to evaluate the effect of temperature on microbial growth during distribution as well as be used to determine how product characteristics can be modified to reduce growth to an acceptable level. Methods: Growth kinetics of psych...

  2. When growth and photosynthesis don't match: implications for carbon balance models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Medlyn, B.; Mahmud, K.; Duursma, R.; Pfautsch, S.; Campany, C.

    2017-12-01

    Most models of terrestrial plant growth are based on the principle of carbon balance: that growth can be predicted from net uptake of carbon via photosynthesis. A key criticism leveled at these models by plant physiologists is that there are many circumstances in which plant growth appears to be independent of photosynthesis: for example, during the onset of drought, or with rising atmospheric CO2 concentration. A crucial problem for terrestrial carbon cycle models is to develop better representations of plant carbon balance when there is a mismatch between growth and photosynthesis. Here we present two studies providing insight into this mismatch. In the first, effects of root restriction on plant growth were examined by comparing Eucalyptus tereticornis seedlings growing in containers of varying sizes with freely-rooted seedlings. Root restriction caused a reduction in photosynthesis, but this reduction was insufficient to explain the even larger reduction observed in growth. We applied data assimilation to a simple carbon balance model to quantify the response of carbon balance as a whole in this experiment. We inferred that, in addition to photosynthesis, there are significant effects of root restriction on growth respiration, carbon allocation, and carbohydrate utilization. The second study was carried out at the EucFACE Free-Air CO2 Enrichment experiment. At this experiment, photosynthesis of the overstorey trees is increased with enriched CO2, but there is no significant effect on above-ground productivity. These mature trees have reached their maximum height but are at significant risk of canopy loss through disturbance, and we hypothesized that additional carbon taken up through photosynthesis is preferentially allocated to storage rather than growth. We tested this hypothesis by measuring stemwood non-structural carbohydrates (NSC) during a psyllid outbreak that completely defoliated the canopy in 2015. There was a significant drawdown of NSC during

  3. Modelling primary branch growth based on a multilevel nonlinear ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    In addition to random effects, various time series correlation structures were evaluated to account for residual autocorrelation, and the AR(1) and ARMA(1,1) structures were selected for the branch diameter and length growth models, respectively. Model validation results using an independent data set confirmed that ...

  4. Kinetic models of cell growth, substrate utilization and bio ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Bio-decolorization kinetic studies of distillery effluent in a batch culture were conducted using Aspergillus fumigatus. A simple model was proposed using the Logistic Equation for the growth, Leudeking-Piret kinetics for bio-decolorization, and also for substrate utilization. The proposed models appeared to provide a suitable ...

  5. Growth theory after Keynes, part I: the unfortunate suppression of the Harrod-Domar model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hendrik Van den Berg

    2013-11-01

    Full Text Available After Harrod and Domar independently developed a dynamic Keynesian circular flow model to illustrate the instability of a growing economy, mainstream economists quickly reduced their model to a supply side-only growth model, which they subsequently rejected as too simplistic and replaced with Solow’s neoclassical growth model. The rejection process of first diminishing the model and then replaced it with a neoclassical alternative was similar to how the full Keynesian macroeconomic paradigm was diminished into IS-LM analysis and then replaced by a simplistic neoclassical framework that largely ignored the demand side of the economy. Furthermore, subsequent work by mainstream economists has resulted in a logically inconsistent framework for analyzing economic growth; the popular endogenous growth models, which use Schumpeter’s concept of profit-driven creative destruction to explain the technological change that Solow left as exogenous, are not logically compatible with the Solow model.

  6. The Biasing Effects of Unmodeled ARMA Time Series Processes on Latent Growth Curve Model Estimates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sivo, Stephen; Fan, Xitao; Witta, Lea

    2005-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to evaluate the robustness of estimated growth curve models when there is stationary autocorrelation among manifest variable errors. The results suggest that when, in practice, growth curve models are fitted to longitudinal data, alternative rival hypotheses to consider would include growth models that also specify…

  7. Modeling individual differences in randomized experiments using growth models: Recommendations for design, statistical analysis and reporting of results of internet interventions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hugo Hesser

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available Growth models (also known as linear mixed effects models, multilevel models, and random coefficients models have the capability of studying change at the group as well as the individual level. In addition, these methods have documented advantages over traditional data analytic approaches in the analysis of repeated-measures data. These advantages include, but are not limited to, the ability to incorporate time-varying predictors, handle dependence among repeated observations in a very flexible manner, and to provide accurate estimates with missing data under fairly unrestrictive missing data assumptions. The flexibility of the growth curve modeling approach to the analysis of change makes it the preferred choice in the evaluation of direct, indirect and moderated intervention effects. Although offering many benefits, growth models present challenges in terms of design, analysis and reporting of results. This paper provides a nontechnical overview of growth models in the analysis of change in randomized experiments and advocates for their use in the field of internet interventions. Practical recommendations for design, analysis and reporting of results from growth models are provided.

  8. JOB DISCRIMINATION AGAINST WOMEN AND ENDOGENOUS POPULATION CHANGE IN A GENERALIZED SOLOW GROWTH MODEL

    OpenAIRE

    Wei-Bin ZHANG

    2017-01-01

    This study examines economic growth and population change with discrimination against women in the labor market within the analytical framework of Solow’s neoclassical growth model. The study models dynamic interactions between wealth accumulation, time distribution between work, children caring, and leisure, population change with endogenous birth and mortality rates with gender discrimination. The production technology and markets are built on Solow’s neoclassical growth model. The basic me...

  9. Modelling the growth of Populus species using Ecosystem Demography (ED) model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, D.; Lebauer, D. S.; Feng, X.; Dietze, M. C.

    2010-12-01

    Hybrid poplar plantations are an important source being evaluated for biomass production. Effective management of such plantations requires adequate growth and yield models. The Ecosystem Demography model (ED) makes predictions about the large scales of interest in above- and belowground ecosystem structure and the fluxes of carbon and water from a description of the fine-scale physiological processes. In this study, we used a workflow management tool, the Predictive Ecophysiological Carbon flux Analyzer (PECAn), to integrate literature data, field measurement and the ED model to provide predictions of ecosystem functioning. Parameters for the ED ensemble runs were sampled from the posterior distribution of ecophysiological traits of Populus species compiled from the literature using a Bayesian meta-analysis approach. Sensitivity analysis was performed to identify the parameters which contribute the most to the uncertainties of the ED model output. Model emulation techniques were used to update parameter posterior distributions using field-observed data in northern Wisconsin hybrid poplar plantations. Model results were evaluated with 5-year field-observed data in a hybrid poplar plantation at New Franklin, MO. ED was then used to predict the spatial variability of poplar yield in the coterminous United States (United States minus Alaska and Hawaii). Sensitivity analysis showed that root respiration, dark respiration, growth respiration, stomatal slope and specific leaf area contribute the most to the uncertainty, which suggests that our field measurements and data collection should focus on these parameters. The ED model successfully captured the inter-annual and spatial variability of the yield of poplar. Analyses in progress with the ED model focus on evaluating the ecosystem services of short-rotation woody plantations, such as impacts on soil carbon storage, water use, and nutrient retention.

  10. Modelling the growth of Listeria monocytogenes on the surface of smear- or mould-ripened cheese

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sol eSchvartzman

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available Surface-ripened cheeses are matured by means of manual or mechanical technologies posing a risk of cross-contamination, if any cheeses are contaminated with Listeria monocytogenes. In predictive microbiology, primary models are used to describe microbial responses, such as growth rate over time and secondary models explain how those responses change with environmental factors. In this way, primary models were used to assess the growth rate of L. monocytogenes during ripening of the cheeses and the secondary models to test how much the growth rate was affected by either the pH and/or the water activity (aw of the cheeses. The two models combined can be used to predict outcomes. The purpose of these experiments was to test three primary (the modified Gompertz equation, the Baranyi and Roberts model and the Logistic model and three secondary (the Cardinal model, the Ratowski model and the Presser model mathematical models in order to define which combination of models would best predict the growth of L. monocytogenes on the surface of artificially contaminated surface-ripened cheeses. Growth on the surface of the cheese was assessed and modelled. The primary models were firstly fitted to the data and the effects of pH and aw on the growth rate (μmax were incorporated and assessed one by one with the secondary models. The Logistic primary model by itself did not show a better fit of the data among the other primary models tested, but the inclusion of the Cardinal secondary model improved the final fit. The aw was not related to the growth of Listeria. This study suggests that surface-ripened cheese should be separately regulated within EU microbiological food legislation and results expressed as counts per surface area rather than per gram.

  11. Modeling the growth of Listeria monocytogenes on the surface of smear- or mold-ripened cheese.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schvartzman, M Sol; Gonzalez-Barron, Ursula; Butler, Francis; Jordan, Kieran

    2014-01-01

    Surface-ripened cheeses are matured by means of manual or mechanical technologies posing a risk of cross-contamination, if any cheeses are contaminated with Listeria monocytogenes. In predictive microbiology, primary models are used to describe microbial responses, such as growth rate over time and secondary models explain how those responses change with environmental factors. In this way, primary models were used to assess the growth rate of L. monocytogenes during ripening of the cheeses and the secondary models to test how much the growth rate was affected by either the pH and/or the water activity (aw) of the cheeses. The two models combined can be used to predict outcomes. The purpose of these experiments was to test three primary (the modified Gompertz equation, the Baranyi and Roberts model, and the Logistic model) and three secondary (the Cardinal model, the Ratowski model, and the Presser model) mathematical models in order to define which combination of models would best predict the growth of L. monocytogenes on the surface of artificially contaminated surface-ripened cheeses. Growth on the surface of the cheese was assessed and modeled. The primary models were firstly fitted to the data and the effects of pH and aw on the growth rate (μmax) were incorporated and assessed one by one with the secondary models. The Logistic primary model by itself did not show a better fit of the data among the other primary models tested, but the inclusion of the Cardinal secondary model improved the final fit. The aw was not related to the growth of Listeria. This study suggests that surface-ripened cheese should be separately regulated within EU microbiological food legislation and results expressed as counts per surface area rather than per gram.

  12. Introducing formalism in economics: The growth model of John von Neumann

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gloria-Palermo Sandye

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available The objective is to interpret John von Neumann's growth model as a decisive step of the forthcoming formalist revolution of the 1950s in economics. This model gave rise to an impressive variety of comments about its classical or neoclassical underpinnings. We go beyond this traditional criterion and interpret rather this model as the manifestation of von Neumann's involvement in the formalist programme of mathematician David Hilbert. We discuss the impact of Kurt Gödel's discoveries on this programme. We show that the growth model reflects the pragmatic turn of the formalist programme after Gödel and proposes the extension of modern axiomatisation to economics.

  13. Mathematical modeling and numerical simulation of Czochralski Crystal Growth

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jaervinen, J.; Nieminen, R. [Center for Scientific Computing, Espoo (Finland)

    1996-12-31

    A detailed mathematical model and numerical simulation tools based on the SUPG Finite Element Method for the Czochralski crystal growth has been developed. In this presentation the mathematical modeling and numerical simulation of the melt flow and the temperature distribution in a rotationally symmetric crystal growth environment is investigated. The temperature distribution and the position of the free boundary between the solid and liquid phases are solved by using the Enthalpy method. Heat inside of the Czochralski furnace is transferred by radiation, conduction and convection. The melt flow is governed by the incompressible Navier-Stokes equations coupled with the enthalpy equation. The melt flow is numerically demonstrated and the temperature distribution in the whole Czochralski furnace. (author)

  14. Mathematical modeling and numerical simulation of Czochralski Crystal Growth

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jaervinen, J; Nieminen, R [Center for Scientific Computing, Espoo (Finland)

    1997-12-31

    A detailed mathematical model and numerical simulation tools based on the SUPG Finite Element Method for the Czochralski crystal growth has been developed. In this presentation the mathematical modeling and numerical simulation of the melt flow and the temperature distribution in a rotationally symmetric crystal growth environment is investigated. The temperature distribution and the position of the free boundary between the solid and liquid phases are solved by using the Enthalpy method. Heat inside of the Czochralski furnace is transferred by radiation, conduction and convection. The melt flow is governed by the incompressible Navier-Stokes equations coupled with the enthalpy equation. The melt flow is numerically demonstrated and the temperature distribution in the whole Czochralski furnace. (author)

  15. An Eulerian-Lagrangian finite-element method for modeling crack growth in creeping materials

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee Hae Sung.

    1991-01-01

    This study is concerned with the development of finite-element-solution methods for analysis of quasi-static, ductile crack growth in history-dependent materials. The mixed Eulerian-Langrangian description (ELD) kinematic model is shown to have several desirable properties for modeling inelastic crack growth. Accordingly, a variational statement based on the ELD for history-dependent materials is developed, and a new moving-grid finite-element method based on the variational statement is presented. The moving-grid finite-element method based on the variational statement is presented. The moving-grid finite-element method is applied to the analysis of transient, quasi-static, mode-III crack growth in creeping materials. A generalized Petrov-Galerkin method (GPG) is developed that simultaneously stabilizes the statement to admit L 2 basis functions for the nonlinear strain field. Quasi-static, model-III crack growth in creeping materials under small-scale-yielding (SSY) conditions is considered. The GPG/ELD moving-grid finite-element formulation is used to model a transient crack-growth problem. The GPG/ELD results compare favorably with previously-published numerical results and the asymptotic solutions

  16. Analytical prediction model for non-symmetric fatigue crack growth in Fibre Metal Laminates

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wang, W.; Rans, C.D.; Benedictus, R.

    2017-01-01

    This paper proposes an analytical model for predicting the non-symmetric crack growth and accompanying delamination growth in FMLs. The general approach of this model applies Linear Elastic Fracture Mechanics, the principle of superposition, and displacement compatibility based on the

  17. Application of a Snow Growth Model to Radar Remote Sensing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Erfani, E.; Mitchell, D. L.

    2014-12-01

    Microphysical growth processes of diffusion, aggregation and riming are incorporated analytically in a steady-state snow growth model (SGM) to solve the zeroth- and second- moment conservation equations with respect to mass. The SGM is initiated by radar reflectivity (Zw), supersaturation, temperature, and a vertical profile of the liquid water content (LWC), and it uses a gamma size distribution (SD) to predict the vertical evolution of size spectra. Aggregation seems to play an important role in the evolution of snowfall rates and the snowfall rates produced by aggregation, diffusion and riming are considerably greater than those produced by diffusion and riming alone, demonstrating the strong interaction between aggregation and riming. The impact of ice particle shape on particle growth rates and fall speeds is represented in the SGM in terms of ice particle mass-dimension (m-D) power laws (m = αDβ). These growth rates are qualitatively consistent with empirical growth rates, with slower (faster) growth rates predicted for higher (lower) β values. In most models, β is treated constant for a given ice particle habit, but it is well known that β is larger for the smaller crystals. Our recent work quantitatively calculates β and α for cirrus clouds as a function of D where the m-D expression is a second-order polynomial in log-log space. By adapting this method to the SGM, the ice particle growth rates and fall speeds are predicted more accurately. Moreover, the size spectra predicted by the SGM are in good agreement with those from aircraft measurements during Lagrangian spiral descents through frontal clouds, indicating the successful modeling of microphysical processes. Since the lowest Zw over complex topography is often significantly above cloud base, the precipitation is often underestimated by radar quantitative precipitation estimates (QPE). Our SGM is capable of being initialized with Zw at the lowest reliable radar echo and consequently improves

  18. Alexandrium minutum growth controlled by phosphorus An applied model

    OpenAIRE

    Chapelle, Annie; Labry, Claire; Sourisseau, Marc; Lebreton, Carole; Youenou, Agnes; Crassous, Marie-pierre

    2010-01-01

    Toxic algae are a worldwide problem threatening aquaculture public health and tourism Alexandrium a toxic dinoflagellate proliferates in Northwest France estuaries (i e the Penze estuary) causing Paralytic Shellfish Poisoning events Vegetative growth and in particular the role of nutrient uptake and growth rate are crucial parameters to understand toxic blooms With the goal of modelling in situ Alexandrium blooms related to environmental parameters we first try to calibrate a zero-dimensional...

  19. Computational modeling of the mechanical modulation of the growth plate by sustained loading

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Narváez-Tovar Carlos A

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available Abstract This paper presents a computational model that describes the growth of the bone as a function of the proliferation and hypertrophy of chondrocytes in the growth plate. We have included the effects of the mechanical loads on the sizes of the proliferative and hypertrophic areas, the number of proliferative chondrocytes and the final size of the hypertrophic chondrocytes. The validation of the model was performed with experimental data published on other investigations about proximal tibia of rats, subjected to sustained axial stresses of 0.1 MPa, 0.0 MPa, -0.1 MPa and −0.2 MPa. Growth was simulated during 23 days, obtaining numerical errors between 2.77% and 3.73% with respect to experimental growth rates. The results obtained show that the model adequately simulates the behavior of the growth plate and the effect of mechanical loads over its cellular activity.

  20. Diffusion tensor magnetic resonance imaging driven growth modeling for radiotherapy target definition in glioblastoma

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Morten B; Guldberg, Trine L; Harbøll, Anja

    2017-01-01

    the microscopic tumor cell spread. Gliomas favor spread along the white matter fiber tracts. Tumor growth models incorporating the MRI diffusion tensors (DTI) allow to account more consistently for the glioma growth. The aim of the study was to investigate the potential of a DTI driven growth model to improve...... target definition in glioblastoma (GBM). MATERIAL AND METHODS: Eleven GBM patients were scanned using T1w, T2w FLAIR, T1w + Gd and DTI. The brain was segmented into white matter, gray matter and cerebrospinal fluid. The Fisher-Kolmogorov growth model was used assuming uniform proliferation...

  1. Modeling mangrove biomass using remote sensing based age and growth estimates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lagomasino, D.; Fatoyinbo, T. E.; Feliciano, E. A.; Lee, S. K.; Trettin, C.; Mangora, M.; Rahman, M.

    2016-12-01

    Mangroves are highly regarded coastal forests because of their ecosystem services and high carbon storage potential. In addition, these forests can develop rapidly in locations where congenial environmental conditions and sediment supply are available. Monitoring the growth and age of developing mangrove forests is crucial for sustainable management and estimating carbon stocks. Combining imagery from radar and optical satellites (e.g., TanDEM-X and Landsat), we can estimate young mangrove growth and age at regional and continental scales. We used TanDEM-X radar interferometry for modeling canopy height in 2013 and Landsat to measure land cover change from 1990 to 2013. Annual NDVI composites were determined for each calendar year between 1990 and 2013. New land areas gained from the transition of water to vegetation were determined by the differences in annual NDVI composites and the reference year 2013. The year of the greatest NDVI difference that met the threshold criteria was used as the initial tree height (0 m). Annual canopy height growth rates were estimated by the duration between land generation times and 2013 canopy height models derived from TanDEM-X and very-high resolution optical data. In this presentation, we compare growth rates and biomass accumulation in mangrove forests at four river deltas; the Zambezi (Mozambique), Rufiji (Tanzania), Ganges (Bangladesh), and Mekong (Vietnam). The spatial patterns of growth rates coincided with characteristic successional paradigms and stream morphology, where the maximum growth rates typically occurred along prograding creek banks. Initial comparisons between height-only and growth-age biomass indicate that the latter tend to overestimate biomass for younger forest stands of similar height. Both the vertical (e.g., canopy height) and horizontal (e.g., expansion) growth rates measured from remote sensing can garner important information regarding mangrove succession and primary productivity. Continued research

  2. Storage and growth of denitrifiers in aerobic granules: part I. model development.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ni, Bing-Jie; Yu, Han-Qing

    2008-02-01

    A mathematical model, based on the Activated Sludge Model No.3 (ASM3), is developed to describe the storage and growth activities of denitrifiers in aerobic granules under anoxic conditions. In this model, mass transfer, hydrolysis, simultaneous anoxic storage and growth, anoxic maintenance, and endogenous decay are all taken into account. The model established is implemented in the well-established AQUASIM simulation software. A combination of completely mixed reactor and biofilm reactor compartments provided by AQUASIM is used to simulate the mass transport and conversion processes occurring in both bulk liquid and granules. The modeling results explicitly show that the external substrate is immediately utilized for storage and growth at feast phase. More external substrates are diverted to storage process than the primary biomass production process. The model simulation indicates that the nitrate utilization rate (NUR) of granules-based denitrification process includes four linear phases of nitrate reduction. Furthermore, the methodology for determining the most important parameter in this model, that is, anoxic reduction factor, is established. (c) 2007 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  3. Mechanical behavior of cells within a cell-based model of wheat leaf growth

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ulyana Zubairova

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Understanding the principles and mechanisms of cell growth coordination in plant tissue remains an outstanding challenge for modern developmental biology. Cell-based modeling is a widely used technique for studying the geometric and topological features of plant tissue morphology during growth. We developed a quasi-one-dimensional model of unidirectional growth of a tissue layer in a linear leaf blade that takes cell autonomous growth mode into account. The model allows for fitting of the visible cell length using the experimental cell length distribution along the longitudinal axis of a wheat leaf epidermis. Additionally, it describes changes in turgor and osmotic pressures for each cell in the growing tissue. Our numerical experiments show that the pressures in the cell change over the cell cycle, and in symplastically growing tissue, they vary from cell to cell and strongly depend on the leaf growing zone to which the cells belong. Therefore, we believe that the mechanical signals generated by pressures are important to consider in simulations of tissue growth as possible targets for molecular genetic regulators of individual cell growth.

  4. Model-independent cosmological constraints from growth and expansion

    Science.gov (United States)

    L'Huillier, Benjamin; Shafieloo, Arman; Kim, Hyungjin

    2018-05-01

    Reconstructing the expansion history of the Universe from Type Ia supernovae data, we fit the growth rate measurements and put model-independent constraints on some key cosmological parameters, namely, Ωm, γ, and σ8. The constraints are consistent with those from the concordance model within the framework of general relativity, but the current quality of the data is not sufficient to rule out modified gravity models. Adding the condition that dark energy density should be positive at all redshifts, independently of its equation of state, further constrains the parameters and interestingly supports the concordance model.

  5. Development and validation of an extensive growth and growth boundary model for Listeria monocytogenes in lightly preserved and ready-to-eat shrimp

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mejlholm, Ole; Dalgaard, Paw

    2009-01-01

    and their interactive effects. The new model predicted growth rates (mu(max) values) of L. monocytogenes accurately with bias and accuracy factors of 1.0 and 1.5, respectively, for 16 batches of brined shrimp with benzoic, citric, and sorbic acids. Corresponding values of 0.9 and 1.2, respectively, were obtained...... for five batches of brined shrimp with acetic and lactic acids. Growth and no-growth responses of L. monocytogenes were also appropriately predicted with 88% correct prediction for 26 experiments with brined shrimp. The new model performed better than existing L. monocytogenes models with a comparable...

  6. Firm dynamic analysis for urban land use and economic growth modelling

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Che'Man, N.; Sabri, S.; Hosni, N.; Timmermans, H.J.P.

    2013-01-01

    In urban growth processes, urbanisation is highly influenced by economic growth which triggers the dynamics of economic agents and land uses. This is consisted of complex subsystems which need sophisticated methods like agent-based modelling and simulation to understand the pattern, behaviour and

  7. Hybrid discrete dislocation models for fatigue crack growth

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Curtin, W. A.; Deshpande, V. S.; Needleman, A.; Van der Giessen, E.; Wallin, M.

    A framework for accurately modeling fatigue crack growth in ductile crystalline solids is necessarily multiscale The creation of new free surface occurs at the atomistic scale, where the material's cohesive strength is controlled by the local chemistry On the other hand, significant dissipation

  8. Creative Destruction and Optimal Patent Life in a Variety-Expanding Growth Model

    OpenAIRE

    Lin, Hwan C.

    2013-01-01

    This paper presents more channels through which the optimal patent life is determined in a R&D-based endogenous growth model that permits growth of new varieties of consumer goods over time. Its modeling features include an endogenous hazard rate facing incumbent monopolists, the prevalence of research congestion, and the aggregate welfare importance of product differentiation. As a result, a patent’s effective life is endogenized and less than its legal life. The model is calibrated to a glo...

  9. Product unit neural network models for predicting the growth limits of Listeria monocytogenes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Valero, A; Hervás, C; García-Gimeno, R M; Zurera, G

    2007-08-01

    A new approach to predict the growth/no growth interface of Listeria monocytogenes as a function of storage temperature, pH, citric acid (CA) and ascorbic acid (AA) is presented. A linear logistic regression procedure was performed and a non-linear model was obtained by adding new variables by means of a Neural Network model based on Product Units (PUNN). The classification efficiency of the training data set and the generalization data of the new Logistic Regression PUNN model (LRPU) were compared with Linear Logistic Regression (LLR) and Polynomial Logistic Regression (PLR) models. 92% of the total cases from the LRPU model were correctly classified, an improvement on the percentage obtained using the PLR model (90%) and significantly higher than the results obtained with the LLR model, 80%. On the other hand predictions of LRPU were closer to data observed which permits to design proper formulations in minimally processed foods. This novel methodology can be applied to predictive microbiology for describing growth/no growth interface of food-borne microorganisms such as L. monocytogenes. The optimal balance is trying to find models with an acceptable interpretation capacity and with good ability to fit the data on the boundaries of variable range. The results obtained conclude that these kinds of models might well be very a valuable tool for mathematical modeling.

  10. PWSCC Growth Assessment Model Considering Stress Triaxiality Factor for Primary Alloy 600 Components

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jong-Sung Kim

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available We propose a primary water stress corrosion cracking (PWSCC initiation model of Alloy 600 that considers the stress triaxiality factor to apply to finite element analysis. We investigated the correlation between stress triaxiality effects and PWSCC growth behavior in cold-worked Alloy 600 stream generator tubes, and identified an additional stress triaxiality factor that can be added to Garud's PWSCC initiation model. By applying the proposed PWSCC initiation model considering the stress triaxiality factor, PWSCC growth simulations based on the macroscopic phenomenological damage mechanics approach were carried out on the PWSCC growth tests of various cold-worked Alloy 600 steam generator tubes and compact tension specimens. As a result, PWSCC growth behavior results from the finite element prediction are in good agreement with the experimental results.

  11. A grain-boundary diffusion model of dynamic grain growth during superplastic deformation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, Byung-Nam; Hiraga, Keijiro; Sakka, Yoshio; Ahn, Byung-Wook

    1999-01-01

    Dynamic grain growth during superplastic deformation is modelled on the basis of a grain-boundary diffusion mechanism. On the grain boundary where a static and a dynamic potential difference coexist, matter transport along the boundary is assumed to contribute to dynamic grain growth through depositing the matter on the grain surface located opposite to the direction of grain-boundary migration. The amount of the diffusive matter during deformation is calculated for an aggregate of spherical grains and is converted to the increment of mean boundary migration velocity. The obtained relationship between the strain rate and the dynamic grain growth rate is shown to be independent of deformation mechanisms, provided that the grain growth is controlled by grain-boundary diffusion. The strain dependence, strain-rate dependence and temperature dependence of grain growth predicted from this model are consistent with those observed in superplastic ZrO 2 -dispersed Al 2 O 3

  12. Studying historical occupational careers with multilevel growth models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Schulz, W.; Maas, I.

    2010-01-01

    In this article we propose to study occupational careers with historical data by using multilevel growth models. Historical career data are often characterized by a lack of information on the timing of occupational changes and by different numbers of observations of occupations per individual.

  13. An Analysis of Missile Systems Cost Growth and Implementation of Acquisition Reform Initiatives Using a Hybrid Adjusted Cost Growth Model

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Abate, Christopher

    2004-01-01

    ...) data with a hybrid adjusted cost growth (ACG) model. In addition, an analysis of acquisition reform initiatives during the treatment period was conducted to determine if reform efforts impacted missile system cost growth. A pre-reform...

  14. Establishing zebrafish as a novel exercise model: swimming economy, swimming-enhanced growth and muscle growth marker gene expression.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Arjan P Palstra

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Zebrafish has been largely accepted as a vertebrate multidisciplinary model but its usefulness as a model for exercise physiology has been hampered by the scarce knowledge on its swimming economy, optimal swimming speeds and cost of transport. Therefore, we have performed individual and group-wise swimming experiments to quantify swimming economy and to demonstrate the exercise effects on growth in adult zebrafish. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Individual zebrafish (n = 10 were able to swim at a critical swimming speed (U(crit of 0.548±0.007 m s(-1 or 18.0 standard body lengths (BL s(-1. The optimal swimming speed (U(opt at which energetic efficiency is highest was 0.396±0.019 m s(-1 (13.0 BL s(-1 corresponding to 72.26±0.29% of U(crit. The cost of transport at optimal swimming speed (COT(opt was 25.23±4.03 µmol g(-1 m(-1. A group-wise experiment was conducted with zebrafish (n = 83 swimming at U(opt for 6 h day(-1 for 5 days week(-1 for 4 weeks vs. zebrafish (n = 84 that rested during this period. Swimming zebrafish increased their total body length by 5.6% and body weight by 41.1% as compared to resting fish. For the first time, a highly significant exercise-induced growth is demonstrated in adult zebrafish. Expression analysis of a set of muscle growth marker genes revealed clear regulatory roles in relation to swimming-enhanced growth for genes such as growth hormone receptor b (ghrb, insulin-like growth factor 1 receptor a (igf1ra, troponin C (stnnc, slow myosin heavy chain 1 (smyhc1, troponin I2 (tnni2, myosin heavy polypeptide 2 (myhz2 and myostatin (mstnb. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: From the results of our study we can conclude that zebrafish can be used as an exercise model for enhanced growth, with implications in basic, biomedical and applied sciences, such as aquaculture.

  15. A demographic model to predict future growth of the Addo elephant population

    OpenAIRE

    A.M. Woodd

    1999-01-01

    An age-structured demographic model of the growth of the Addo elephant population was developed using parameters calculated from long-term data on the population. The model was used to provide estimates of future population growth. Expansion of the Addo Elephant National Park is currently underway, and the proposed target population size for elephant within the enlarged park is 2700. The model predicts that this population size will be reached during the year 2043, so that the Addo elephant p...

  16. On the influence of the environment on modeling the fatigue crack growth process

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mc Evily, A.J.

    1987-01-01

    The effect of the environment at room and elevated temperature were considered with respect to the influence exerted on the basic mechanical aspects of the fatigue crack growth process. An experimental assessment of this influence was obtained by conducting fatigue crack growth tests both in air and vacuum and the results of such experiments are given. Topics considered include crack closure, short crack growth in notched and unnotched specimens, Mode II crack growth, and the effects of oxidation at elevated temperatures. It is shown that the basic mechanisms of fatigue crack growth can be greatly altered by the presence of oxide films at the fatigue crack tip. Modeling the mechanical aspects of the crack growth process is by itself a challenging task. In addition, the environmental considerations adds to the complexity of the modeling process. (Author)

  17. Modeling volcano growth on the Island of Hawaii: deep-water perspectives

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lipman, Peter W.; Calvert, Andrew T.

    2013-01-01

    Recent ocean-bottom geophysical surveys, dredging, and dives, which complement surface data and scientific drilling at the Island of Hawaii, document that evolutionary stages during volcano growth are more diverse than previously described. Based on combining available composition, isotopic age, and geologically constrained volume data for each of the component volcanoes, this overview provides the first integrated models for overall growth of any Hawaiian island. In contrast to prior morphologic models for volcano evolution (preshield, shield, postshield), growth increasingly can be tracked by age and volume (magma supply), defining waxing alkalic, sustained tholeiitic, and waning alkalic stages. Data and estimates for individual volcanoes are used to model changing magma supply during successive compositional stages, to place limits on volcano life spans, and to interpret composite assembly of the island. Volcano volumes vary by an order of magnitude; peak magma supply also varies sizably among edifices but is challenging to quantify because of uncertainty about volcano life spans. Three alternative models are compared: (1) near-constant volcano propagation, (2) near-equal volcano durations, (3) high peak-tholeiite magma supply. These models define inconsistencies with prior geodynamic models, indicate that composite growth at Hawaii peaked ca. 800–400 ka, and demonstrate a lower current rate. Recent age determinations for Kilauea and Kohala define a volcano propagation rate of 8.6 cm/yr that yields plausible inception ages for other volcanoes of the Kea trend. In contrast, a similar propagation rate for the less-constrained Loa trend would require inception of Loihi Seamount in the future and ages that become implausibly large for the older volcanoes. An alternative rate of 10.6 cm/yr for Loa-trend volcanoes is reasonably consistent with ages and volcano spacing, but younger Loa volcanoes are offset from the Kea trend in age-distance plots. Variable magma flux

  18. "A Simplified 'Benchmark” Stock-flow Consistent (SFC) Post-Keynesian Growth Model"

    OpenAIRE

    Claudio H. Dos Santos; Gennaro Zezza

    2007-01-01

    Despite being arguably one of the most active areas of research in heterodox macroeconomics, the study of the dynamic properties of stock-flow consistent (SFC) growth models of financially sophisticated economies is still in its early stages. This paper attempts to offer a contribution to this line of research by presenting a simplified Post-Keynesian SFC growth model with well-defined dynamic properties, and using it to shed light on the merits and limitations of the current heterodox SFC li...

  19. Modeling salt movement and halophytic crop growth on marginal lands with the APEX model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goehring, N.; Saito, L.; Verburg, P.; Jeong, J.; Garrett, A.

    2016-12-01

    Saline soils negatively impact crop productivity in nearly 20% of irrigated agricultural lands worldwide. At these saline sites, cultivation of highly salt-tolerant plants, known as halophytes, may increase productivity compared to conventional salt-sensitive crops (i.e., glycophytes), thereby increasing the economic potential of marginal lands. Through a variety of mechanisms, halophytes are more effective than glycophytes at excluding, accumulating, and secreting salts from their tissues. Each mechanism can have a different impact on the salt balance in the plant-soil-water system. To date, little information is available to understand the long-term impacts of halophyte cultivation on environmental quality. This project utilizes the Agricultural Policy/Environmental Extender (APEX) model, developed by the US Department of Agriculture, to model the growth and production of two halophytic crops. The crops being modeled include quinoa (Chenopodium quinoa), which has utilities for human consumption and forage, and AC Saltlander green wheatgrass (Elymus hoffmannii), which has forage utility. APEX simulates salt movement between soil layers and accounts for the salt balance in the plant-soil-water system, including salinity in irrigation water and crop-specific salt uptake. Key crop growth parameters in APEX are derived from experimental growth data obtained under non-stressed conditions. Data from greenhouse and field experiments in which quinoa and AC Saltlander were grown under various soil salinity and irrigation salinity treatments are being used to parameterize, calibrate, and test the model. This presentation will discuss progress on crop parameterization and completed model runs under different salt-affected soil and irrigation conditions.

  20. A Big Bang model of human colorectal tumor growth.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sottoriva, Andrea; Kang, Haeyoun; Ma, Zhicheng; Graham, Trevor A; Salomon, Matthew P; Zhao, Junsong; Marjoram, Paul; Siegmund, Kimberly; Press, Michael F; Shibata, Darryl; Curtis, Christina

    2015-03-01

    What happens in early, still undetectable human malignancies is unknown because direct observations are impractical. Here we present and validate a 'Big Bang' model, whereby tumors grow predominantly as a single expansion producing numerous intermixed subclones that are not subject to stringent selection and where both public (clonal) and most detectable private (subclonal) alterations arise early during growth. Genomic profiling of 349 individual glands from 15 colorectal tumors showed an absence of selective sweeps, uniformly high intratumoral heterogeneity (ITH) and subclone mixing in distant regions, as postulated by our model. We also verified the prediction that most detectable ITH originates from early private alterations and not from later clonal expansions, thus exposing the profile of the primordial tumor. Moreover, some tumors appear 'born to be bad', with subclone mixing indicative of early malignant potential. This new model provides a quantitative framework to interpret tumor growth dynamics and the origins of ITH, with important clinical implications.

  1. A nonlinear competitive model of the prostate tumor growth under intermittent androgen suppression.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Jing; Zhao, Tong-Jun; Yuan, Chang-Qing; Xie, Jing-Hui; Hao, Fang-Fang

    2016-09-07

    Hormone suppression has been the primary modality of treatment for prostate cancer. However long-term androgen deprivation may induce androgen-independent (AI) recurrence. Intermittent androgen suppression (IAS) is a potential way to delay or avoid the AI relapse. Mathematical models of tumor growth and treatment are simple while they are capable of capturing the essence of complicated interactions. Game theory models have analyzed that tumor cells can enhance their fitness by adopting genetically determined survival strategies. In this paper, we consider the survival strategies as the competitive advantage of tumor cells and propose a new model to mimic the prostate tumor growth in IAS therapy. Then we investigate the competition effect in tumor development by numerical simulations. The results indicate that successfully IAS-controlled states can be achieved even though the net growth rate of AI cells is positive for any androgen level. There is crucial difference between the previous models and the new one in the phase diagram of successful and unsuccessful tumor control by IAS administration, which means that the suggestions from the models for medication can be different. Furthermore we introduce quadratic logistic terms to the competition model to simulate the tumor growth in the environment with a finite carrying capacity considering the nutrients or inhibitors. The simulations show that the tumor growth can reach an equilibrium state or an oscillatory state with the net growth rate of AI cells being androgen independent. Our results suggest that the competition and the restraint of a limited environment can enhance the possibility of relapse prevention. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  2. Modeling and forecasting mortality with economic growth : a multipopulation approach

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Boonen, T.J.; Li, H.

    2017-01-01

    Research on mortality modeling of multiple populations focuses mainly on extrapolating past mortality trends and summarizing these trends by one or more common latent factors. This article proposes a multipopulation stochastic mortality model that uses the explanatory power of economic growth. In

  3. Forecasting craniofacial growth in individuals with class III malocclusion by computational modelling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Auconi, Pietro; Scazzocchio, Marco; Defraia, Efisio; McNamara, James A; Franchi, Lorenzo

    2014-04-01

    To develop a mathematical model that adequately represented the pattern of craniofacial growth in class III subject consistently, with the goal of using this information to make growth predictions that could be amenable to longitudinal verification and clinical use. A combination of computational techniques (i.e. Fuzzy clustering and Network analysis) was applied to cephalometric data derived from 429 untreated growing female patients with class III malocclusion to visualize craniofacial growth dynamics and correlations. Four age groups of subjects were examined individually: from 7 to 9 years of age, from 10 to 12 years, from 13 to 14 years, and from 15 to 17 years. The connections between pathway components of class III craniofacial growth can be visualized from Network profiles. Fuzzy clustering analysis was able to define further growth patterns and coherences of the traditionally reported dentoskeletal characteristics of this structural imbalance. Craniofacial growth can be visualized as a biological, space-constraint-based optimization process; the prediction of individual growth trajectories depends on the rate of membership to a specific 'winner' cluster, i.e. on a specific individual growth strategy. The reliability of the information thus gained was tested to forecast craniofacial growth of 28 untreated female class III subjects followed longitudinally. The combination of Fuzzy clustering and Network algorithms allowed the development of principles for combining multiple auxological cephalometric features into a joint global model and to predict the individual risk of the facial pattern imbalance during growth.

  4. Nonlinear dynamics in a business-cycle model with logistic population growth

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brianzoni, Serena; Mammana, Cristiana; Michetti, Elisabetta

    2009-01-01

    We consider a discrete-time growth model of the Solow type where workers and shareholders have different but constant saving rates and the population growth dynamics is described by the logistic equation able to exhibit complicated dynamics. We show conditions for the resulting system having a compact global attractor and we describe its structure. We also perform a mainly numerical analysis using the critical lines method able to describe the strange attractor and the absorbing area, in order to show how cyclical or complex fluctuations may be produced in a business-cycle model. We study the dynamic behaviour of the model under different ranges of the main parameters, i.e. the elasticity of substitution between the two production factors and the one in the logistic equation (namely μ). We prove the existence of complex dynamics when the elasticity of substitution between production factors drops below one (so that capital income declines) or μ increases (so that the amplitude of movements in the population growth rate increases).

  5. A three-dimensional meso-scale modeling for helium bubble growth in metals

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Suzudo, T.; Kaburaki, H.; Wakai, E.

    2007-01-01

    A three-dimensional meso-scale computer model using a Monte-Carlo simulation method has been proposed to simulate the helium bubble growth in metals. The primary merit of this model is that it enables the visual comparison between the microstructure observed by the TEM imaging and those by calculations. The modeling is so simple that one can control easily the calculation by tuning parameters. The simulation results are confirmed by the ideal gas law and the capillary relation. helium bubble growth, meso-scale modeling, Monte-Carlo simulation, the ideal gas law and the capillary relation. (authors)

  6. Cumulative growth of minor hysteresis loops in the Kolmogorov model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Meilikhov, E. Z.; Farzetdinova, R. M.

    2013-01-01

    The phenomenon of nonrepeatability of successive remagnetization cycles in Co/M (M = Pt, Pd, Au) multilayer film structures is explained in the framework of the Kolmogorov crystallization model. It is shown that this model of phase transitions can be adapted so as to adequately describe the process of magnetic relaxation in the indicated systems with “memory.” For this purpose, it is necessary to introduce some additional elements into the model, in particular, (i) to take into account the fact that every cycle starts from a state “inherited” from the preceding cycle and (ii) to assume that the rate of growth of a new magnetic phase depends on the cycle number. This modified model provides a quite satisfactory qualitative and quantitative description of all features of successive magnetic relaxation cycles in the system under consideration, including the surprising phenomenon of cumulative growth of minor hysteresis loops.

  7. A generalized preferential attachment model for business firms growth rates. I. Empirical evidence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pammolli, F.; Fu, D.; Buldyrev, S. V.; Riccaboni, M.; Matia, K.; Yamasaki, K.; Stanley, H. E.

    2007-05-01

    We introduce a model of proportional growth to explain the distribution P(g) of business firm growth rates. The model predicts that P(g) is Laplace in the central part and depicts an asymptotic power-law behavior in the tails with an exponent ζ = 3. Because of data limitations, previous studies in this field have been focusing exclusively on the Laplace shape of the body of the distribution. We test the model at different levels of aggregation in the economy, from products, to firms, to countries, and we find that the predictions are in good agreement with empirical evidence on both growth distributions and size-variance relationships.

  8. Formation of vertically aligned carbon nanostructures in plasmas: numerical modelling of growth and energy exchange

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Denysenko, I; Azarenkov, N A, E-mail: idenysenko@yahoo.com [School of Physics and Technology, V N Karazin Kharkiv National University, 4 Svobody sq., 61077 Kharkiv (Ukraine)

    2011-05-04

    Results on modelling of the plasma-assisted growth of vertically aligned carbon nanostructures and of the energy exchange between the plasma and the growing nanostructures are reviewed. Growth of carbon nanofibres and single-walled carbon nanotubes is considered. Focus is made on studies that use the models based on mass balance equations for species, which are adsorbed on catalyst nanoparticles or walls of the nanostructures. It is shown that the models can be effectively used for the study and optimization of nanostructure growth in plasma-enhanced chemical vapour deposition. The results from these models are in good agreement with the available experimental data on the growth of nanostructures. It is discussed how input parameters for the models may be obtained.

  9. Modelling of toluene biodegradation and biofilm growth in a fixed biofilm reactor

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Arcangeli, Jean-Pierre; Arvin, Erik

    1992-01-01

    The modelling of aerobic biodegradation of toluene and the associated biofilm growth in a fixed biofilm system is presented. The model includes four biomass fractions, three dissolved components, and seven processes. It is assumed that part of the active biomass is composed of filamentous bacteria...... which grow relatively fast and detach easily, leading to a biomass growth delayed with respect to substrate degradation. The non-filamentous bacteria inside the biofilm also degrade toluene but with a slower rate compared to the filamentous bacteria. Because the nonfilamentous bacteria do not detach......, they are primarily responsible for the biofilm growth. The active biomass decays into biodegradable and ``inert'' dead biomass which is hydrolyzed into soluble products at two different rates. These products are partly degradable by the biomass and constitute the endogenous respiration. The dynamic growth phase...

  10. Modelling of toluene biodegradation and biofilm growth in a fixed biofilm reactor

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Arcangeli, Jean-Pierre; Arvin, Erik

    1992-01-01

    The modelling of aerobic biodegradation of toluene and the associated biofilm growth in a fixed biofilm system is presented. The model includes four biomass fractions, three dissolved components, and seven processes. It is assumed that part of the active biomass is composed of filamentous bacteria......, they are primarily responsible for the biofilm growth. The active biomass decays into biodegradable and ``inert'' dead biomass which is hydrolyzed into soluble products at two different rates. These products are partly degradable by the biomass and constitute the endogenous respiration. The dynamic growth phase...... which grow relatively fast and detach easily, leading to a biomass growth delayed with respect to substrate degradation. The non-filamentous bacteria inside the biofilm also degrade toluene but with a slower rate compared to the filamentous bacteria. Because the nonfilamentous bacteria do not detach...

  11. Validation of mathematical model for CZ process using small-scale laboratory crystal growth furnace

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bergfelds, Kristaps; Sabanskis, Andrejs; Virbulis, Janis

    2018-05-01

    The present material is focused on the modelling of small-scale laboratory NaCl-RbCl crystal growth furnace. First steps towards fully transient simulations are taken in the form of stationary simulations that deal with the optimization of material properties to match the model to experimental conditions. For this purpose, simulation software primarily used for the modelling of industrial-scale silicon crystal growth process was successfully applied. Finally, transient simulations of the crystal growth are presented, giving a sufficient agreement to experimental results.

  12. Coupled Hybrid Continuum-Discrete Model of Tumor Angiogenesis and Growth.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jie Lyu

    Full Text Available The processes governing tumor growth and angiogenesis are codependent. To study the relationship between them, we proposed a coupled hybrid continuum-discrete model. In this model, tumor cells, their microenvironment (extracellular matrixes, matrix-degrading enzymes, and tumor angiogenic factors, and their network of blood vessels, described by a series of discrete points, were considered. The results of numerical simulation reveal the process of tumor growth and the change in microenvironment from avascular to vascular stage, indicating that the network of blood vessels develops gradually as the tumor grows. Our findings also reveal that a tumor is divided into three regions: necrotic, semi-necrotic, and well-vascularized. The results agree well with the previous relevant studies and physiological facts, and this model represents a platform for further investigations of tumor therapy.

  13. Bifurcation analysis of a delayed mathematical model for tumor growth

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Khajanchi, Subhas

    2015-01-01

    In this study, we present a modified mathematical model of tumor growth by introducing discrete time delay in interaction terms. The model describes the interaction between tumor cells, healthy tissue cells (host cells) and immune effector cells. The goal of this study is to obtain a better compatibility with reality for which we introduced the discrete time delay in the interaction between tumor cells and host cells. We investigate the local stability of the non-negative equilibria and the existence of Hopf-bifurcation by considering the discrete time delay as a bifurcation parameter. We estimate the length of delay to preserve the stability of bifurcating periodic solutions, which gives an idea about the mode of action for controlling oscillations in the tumor growth. Numerical simulations of the model confirm the analytical findings

  14. Describing Growth Pattern of Bali Cows Using Non-linear Regression Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohd. Hafiz A.W

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available The objective of this study was to evaluate the best fit non-linear regression model to describe the growth pattern of Bali cows. Estimates of asymptotic mature weight, rate of maturing and constant of integration were derived from Brody, von Bertalanffy, Gompertz and Logistic models which were fitted to cross-sectional data of body weight taken from 74 Bali cows raised in MARDI Research Station Muadzam Shah Pahang. Coefficient of determination (R2 and residual mean squares (MSE were used to determine the best fit model in describing the growth pattern of Bali cows. Von Bertalanffy model was the best model among the four growth functions evaluated to determine the mature weight of Bali cattle as shown by the highest R2 and lowest MSE values (0.973 and 601.9, respectively, followed by Gompertz (0.972 and 621.2, respectively, Logistic (0.971 and 648.4, respectively and Brody (0.932 and 660.5, respectively models. The correlation between rate of maturing and mature weight was found to be negative in the range of -0.170 to -0.929 for all models, indicating that animals of heavier mature weight had lower rate of maturing. The use of non-linear model could summarize the weight-age relationship into several biologically interpreted parameters compared to the entire lifespan weight-age data points that are difficult and time consuming to interpret.

  15. Area Based Models of New Highway Route Growth

    OpenAIRE

    David Levinson; Wei Chen

    2007-01-01

    Empirical data and statistical models are used to answer the question of where new highway routes are most likely to be located. High-quality land-use, population distribution and highway network GIS data for the Twin CitiesMetropolitan Area from 1958 to 1990 are developed for this study. The highway system is classified into three levels, Interstate highways, divided highways, and secondary highways. Binary logit models estimate the new route growth probability of divided highways and second...

  16. Proximity, social capital and the Simon-model of stochastic growth

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Frenken, K.; Reggiani, A.; Nijkamp, P.

    2009-01-01

    It is customary to define economic geography as a discipline that deals with the uneven distribution of economic activity across space. From a historical perspective, stochastic growth models are of particular use (Simon 1955). Such models explain the current distribution of activities from the

  17. A thermodynamic model for growth mechanisms of multiwall carbon nanotubes.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kaatz, Forrest H.; Overmyer, Donald L.; Siegal, Michael P.

    2006-02-01

    Multiwall carbon nanotubes are grown via thermal chemical vapor deposition between temperatures of 630 and 830 C using acetylene in nitrogen as the carbon source. This process is modeled using classical thermodynamics to explain the total carbon deposition as a function of time and temperature. An activation energy of 1.60 eV is inferred for nanotube growth after considering the carbon solubility term. Scanning electron microscopy shows growth with diameters increasing linearly with time. Transmission electron microscopy and Raman spectroscopy show multiwall nanotubes surrounded by a glassy-carbon sheath, which grows with increasing wall thickness as growth temperatures and times rise.

  18. Xylem formation can be modeled statistically as a function of primary growth and cambium activity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Jian-Guo; Deslauriers, Annie; Rossi, Sergio

    2014-08-01

    Primary (budburst, foliage and shoot) growth and secondary (cambium and xylem) growth of plants play a vital role in sequestering atmospheric carbon. However, their potential relationships have never been mathematically quantified and the underlying physiological mechanisms are unclear. We monitored primary and secondary growth in Picea mariana and Abies balsamea on a weekly basis from 2010 to 2013 at four sites over an altitudinal gradient (25-900 m) in the eastern Canadian boreal forest. We determined the timings of onset and termination through the fitted functions and their first derivative. We quantified the potential relationships between primary growth and secondary growth using the mixed-effects model. We found that xylem formation of boreal conifers can be modeled as a function of cambium activity, bud phenology, and shoot and needle growth, as well as species- and site-specific factors. Our model reveals that there may be an optimal mechanism to simultaneously allocate the photosynthetic products and stored nonstructural carbon to growth of different organs at different times in the growing season. This mathematical link can bridge phenological modeling, forest ecosystem productivity and carbon cycle modeling, which will certainly contribute to an improved prediction of ecosystem productivity and carbon equilibrium. © 2014 The Authors. New Phytologist © 2014 New Phytologist Trust.

  19. A search for distinctive features of demand-led growth models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sergio Parrinello

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available This paper aims at a critical and constructive assessment of some extensions of Keynes’s analysis of effective demand to the long period and growth. A criticism is addressed to a single-cause interpretation of the demand-led growth models and to the notion of normal capacity utilization adopted in such models. A positive argument tries to find a distinctive characterization of those extensions in the productive and financial conditions that make effective the autonomous changes in aggregate demand. It suggests a notion of normal capacity utilization as a range of distributions of normal utilization, related to the cost minimizing choice of techniques and to the persistence of the long term expectations of normal prices underlying the investment decisions. In such a context a long-period analysis with normal prices should avoid a dual steady growth where constant relative prices of capital goods correspond to constant proportions among the stocks of fixed capital.

  20. Modeling biological tissue growth: discrete to continuum representations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hywood, Jack D; Hackett-Jones, Emily J; Landman, Kerry A

    2013-09-01

    There is much interest in building deterministic continuum models from discrete agent-based models governed by local stochastic rules where an agent represents a biological cell. In developmental biology, cells are able to move and undergo cell division on and within growing tissues. A growing tissue is itself made up of cells which undergo cell division, thereby providing a significant transport mechanism for other cells within it. We develop a discrete agent-based model where domain agents represent tissue cells. Each agent has the ability to undergo a proliferation event whereby an additional domain agent is incorporated into the lattice. If a probability distribution describes the waiting times between proliferation events for an individual agent, then the total length of the domain is a random variable. The average behavior of these stochastically proliferating agents defining the growing lattice is determined in terms of a Fokker-Planck equation, with an advection and diffusion term. The diffusion term differs from the one obtained Landman and Binder [J. Theor. Biol. 259, 541 (2009)] when the rate of growth of the domain is specified, but the choice of agents is random. This discrepancy is reconciled by determining a discrete-time master equation for this process and an associated asymmetric nonexclusion random walk, together with consideration of synchronous and asynchronous updating schemes. All theoretical results are confirmed with numerical simulations. This study furthers our understanding of the relationship between agent-based rules, their implementation, and their associated partial differential equations. Since tissue growth is a significant cellular transport mechanism during embryonic growth, it is important to use the correct partial differential equation description when combining with other cellular functions.

  1. An introduction to latent variable growth curve modeling concepts, issues, and application

    CERN Document Server

    Duncan, Terry E; Strycker, Lisa A

    2013-01-01

    This book provides a comprehensive introduction to latent variable growth curve modeling (LGM) for analyzing repeated measures. It presents the statistical basis for LGM and its various methodological extensions, including a number of practical examples of its use. It is designed to take advantage of the reader's familiarity with analysis of variance and structural equation modeling (SEM) in introducing LGM techniques. Sample data, syntax, input and output, are provided for EQS, Amos, LISREL, and Mplus on the book's CD. Throughout the book, the authors present a variety of LGM techniques that are useful for many different research designs, and numerous figures provide helpful diagrams of the examples.Updated throughout, the second edition features three new chapters-growth modeling with ordered categorical variables, growth mixture modeling, and pooled interrupted time series LGM approaches. Following a new organization, the book now covers the development of the LGM, followed by chapters on multiple-group is...

  2. Damage assessment of low-cycle fatigue by crack growth prediction. Development of growth prediction model and its application

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kamaya, Masayuki; Kawakubo, Masahiro

    2012-01-01

    In this study, the fatigue damage was assumed to be equivalent to the crack initiation and its growth, and fatigue life was assessed by predicting the crack growth. First, a low-cycle fatigue test was conducted in air at room temperature under constant cyclic strain range of 1.2%. The crack initiation and change in crack size during the test were examined by replica investigation. It was found that a crack of 41.2 μm length was initiated almost at the beginning of the test. The identified crack growth rate was shown to correlate well with the strain intensity factor, whose physical meaning was discussed in this study. The fatigue life prediction model (equation) under constant strain range was derived by integrating the crack growth equation defined using the strain intensity factor, and the predicted fatigue lives were almost identical to those obtained by low-cycle fatigue tests. The change in crack depth predicted by the equation also agreed well with the experimental results. Based on the crack growth prediction model, it was shown that the crack size would be less than 0.1 mm even when the estimated fatigue damage exceeded the critical value of the design fatigue curve, in which a twenty-fold safety margin was used for the assessment. It was revealed that the effect of component size and surface roughness, which have been investigated empirically by fatigue tests, could be reasonably explained by considering the crack initiation and growth. Furthermore, the environmental effect on the fatigue life was shown to be brought about by the acceleration of crack growth. (author)

  3. A MODEL OF ECONOMIC GROWTH WITH PUBLIC FINANCE: DYNAMICS AND ANALYTIC SOLUTION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Oliviero Antonio Carboni

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper studies the equilibrium dynamics of a growth model with public finance where two different allocations of public resources are considered. The model simultaneously determines the optimal shares of consumption, capital accumulation, taxes and composition of the two different public expenditures which maximize a representative household's lifetime utilities in a centralized economy. The analysis supplies a closed form solution. Moreover, with one restriction on the parameters ( we fully determine the solutions path for all variables of the model and determine the conditions for balanced growth.

  4. Interfacial properties in a discrete model for tumor growth

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moglia, Belén; Guisoni, Nara; Albano, Ezequiel V.

    2013-03-01

    We propose and study, by means of Monte Carlo numerical simulations, a minimal discrete model for avascular tumor growth, which can also be applied for the description of cell cultures in vitro. The interface of the tumor is self-affine and its width can be characterized by the following exponents: (i) the growth exponent β=0.32(2) that governs the early time regime, (ii) the roughness exponent α=0.49(2) related to the fluctuations in the stationary regime, and (iii) the dynamic exponent z=α/β≃1.49(2), which measures the propagation of correlations in the direction parallel to the interface, e.g., ξ∝t1/z, where ξ is the parallel correlation length. Therefore, the interface belongs to the Kardar-Parisi-Zhang universality class, in agreement with recent experiments of cell cultures in vitro. Furthermore, density profiles of the growing cells are rationalized in terms of traveling waves that are solutions of the Fisher-Kolmogorov equation. In this way, we achieved excellent agreement between the simulation results of the discrete model and the continuous description of the growth front of the culture or tumor.

  5. Sensitivity of Fit Indices to Misspecification in Growth Curve Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Wei; West, Stephen G.

    2010-01-01

    This study investigated the sensitivity of fit indices to model misspecification in within-individual covariance structure, between-individual covariance structure, and marginal mean structure in growth curve models. Five commonly used fit indices were examined, including the likelihood ratio test statistic, root mean square error of…

  6. Reserve growth in oil pools of Alberta : model and forecast

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Verma, M.; Cook, T. [United States Geological Survey, Denver, CO (United States). Central Region

    2010-09-15

    This paper presented a reserve growth study that was conducted on oil pools in Alberta, Canada. Historical oil reserve data were evaluated to assess the potential for future reserve growth in both pools and fields, and reserve growth models and functions were developed to better forecast hydrocarbon volumes. The study also considered the sensitivity of reserve growth to such factors as pool size, porosity, and oil gravity. From 1960 to 2005, the reported known recoverable oil in Alberta, excluding the Athabasca oil sands and including only pools with adequate data, increased from 4.2 to 13.9 billion barrels of oil (BBO). New discoveries contributed 3.7 BBO and reserve growth added 6 BBO. Most reserve growth occurred in pools with more than 125,000 barrels of oil. Light-oil pools account for most of the total known oil volume and consequently showed the lowest growth. Pools with greater than 30 percent porosity grew more than pools with lower porosity reservoirs. Oil field growth was found to be almost twice that of pool growth, possibly because the analysis evaluated fields with two or more pools discovered in different years. The growth in oil volumes in Alberta pools is projected to be about 454 million barrels of oil in the period from 2006 to 2010. Over a 25-year period, the cumulative reserve growth in Alberta oil pools was substantially lower than other major petroleum-producing regions, but the growth at the field level compares well. 8 refs., 2 tabs., 9 figs.

  7. Accounting for household heterogeneity in general equilibrium economic growth models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Melnikov, N.B.; O'Neill, B.C.; Dalton, M.G.

    2012-01-01

    We describe and evaluate a new method of aggregating heterogeneous households that allows for the representation of changing demographic composition in a multi-sector economic growth model. The method is based on a utility and labor supply calibration that takes into account time variations in demographic characteristics of the population. We test the method using the Population-Environment-Technology (PET) model by comparing energy and emissions projections employing the aggregate representation of households to projections representing different household types explicitly. Results show that the difference between the two approaches in terms of total demand for energy and consumption goods is negligible for a wide range of model parameters. Our approach allows the effects of population aging, urbanization, and other forms of compositional change on energy demand and CO 2 emissions to be estimated and compared in a computationally manageable manner using a representative household under assumptions and functional forms that are standard in economic growth models.

  8. Escherichia coli growth modeling using neural network | Shamsudin ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    technique that has the ability to predict with efficient and good performance. Using NARX, a highly accurate model was developed to predict the growth of Escherichia coli (E. coli) based on pH water parameter. The multiparameter portable sensor and spectrophotometer data were used to build and train the neural network.

  9. Procedure for Application of Software Reliability Growth Models to NPP PSA

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Son, Han Seong; Kang, Hyun Gook; Chang, Seung Cheol

    2009-01-01

    As the use of software increases at nuclear power plants (NPPs), the necessity for including software reliability and/or safety into the NPP Probabilistic Safety Assessment (PSA) rises. This work proposes an application procedure of software reliability growth models (RGMs), which are most widely used to quantify software reliability, to NPP PSA. Through the proposed procedure, it can be determined if a software reliability growth model can be applied to the NPP PSA before its real application. The procedure proposed in this work is expected to be very helpful for incorporating software into NPP PSA

  10. Pre-treatment growth and IGF-I deficiency as main predictors of response to growth hormone therapy in neural models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Urszula Smyczyn´ska

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Mathematical models have been applied in prediction of growth hormone treatment effectiveness in children since the end of 1990s. Usually they were multiple linear regression models; however, there are also examples derived by empirical non-linear methods. Proposed solution consists in application of machine learning technique – artificial neural networks – to analyse this problem. This new methodology, contrary to previous ones, allows detection of both linear and non-linear dependencies without assuming their character a priori. The aims of this work included: development of models predicting separately growth during 1st year of treatment and final height as well as identification of important predictors and in-depth analysis of their influence on treatment’s effectiveness. The models were derived on the basis of clinical data of 272 patients treated for at least 1 year, 133 of whom have already attained final height. Starting from models containing 17 and 20 potential predictors, respectively for 1st year and final height model, we were able to reduce their number to 9 and 10. Basing on the final models, IGF-I concentration and earlier growth were indicated as belonging to most important predictors of response to GH therapy, while results of GH secretion tests were automatically excluded as insignificant. Moreover, majority of the dependencies were observed to be non-linear, thus using neural networks seems to be reasonable approach despite it being more complex than previously applied methods.

  11. Proces-based modeling of the overflow induced growth of erosional channels

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Tuan, T.Q.; Stive, M.J.F.; Verhagen, H.J.; Visser, P.J.

    2008-01-01

    A new process-based approach is introduced for a more efficient computation of the overflow-induced growth of an erosional channel in a noncohesive homogeneous narrow landmass such as the breach growth in a sand-dike. The approach is easy to incorporate in a 1D/2DV morphodynamic model to compute the

  12. Modeling Exponential Population Growth

    Science.gov (United States)

    McCormick, Bonnie

    2009-01-01

    The concept of population growth patterns is a key component of understanding evolution by natural selection and population dynamics in ecosystems. The National Science Education Standards (NSES) include standards related to population growth in sections on biological evolution, interdependence of organisms, and science in personal and social…

  13. Modelling spatio-temporal variability of Mytilus edulis (L.) growth by forcing a dynamic energy budget model with satellite-derived environmental data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thomas, Yoann; Mazurié, Joseph; Alunno-Bruscia, Marianne; Bacher, Cédric; Bouget, Jean-François; Gohin, Francis; Pouvreau, Stéphane; Struski, Caroline

    2011-11-01

    In order to assess the potential of various marine ecosystems for shellfish aquaculture and to evaluate their carrying capacities, there is a need to clarify the response of exploited species to environmental variations using robust ecophysiological models and available environmental data. For a large range of applications and comparison purposes, a non-specific approach based on 'generic' individual growth models offers many advantages. In this context, we simulated the response of blue mussel ( Mytilus edulis L.) to the spatio-temporal fluctuations of the environment in Mont Saint-Michel Bay (North Brittany) by forcing a generic growth model based on Dynamic Energy Budgets with satellite-derived environmental data (i.e. temperature and food). After a calibration step based on data from mussel growth surveys, the model was applied over nine years on a large area covering the entire bay. These simulations provide an evaluation of the spatio-temporal variability in mussel growth and also show the ability of the DEB model to integrate satellite-derived data and to predict spatial and temporal growth variability of mussels. Observed seasonal, inter-annual and spatial growth variations are well simulated. The large-scale application highlights the strong link between food and mussel growth. The methodology described in this study may be considered as a suitable approach to account for environmental effects (food and temperature variations) on physiological responses (growth and reproduction) of filter feeders in varying environments. Such physiological responses may then be useful for evaluating the suitability of coastal ecosystems for shellfish aquaculture.

  14. Mathematical models of tumor growth: translating absorbed dose to tumor control probability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sgouros, G.

    1996-01-01

    Full text: The dose-rate in internal emitter therapy is low and time-dependent as compared to external beam radiotherapy. Once the total absorbed dose delivered to a target tissue is calculated, however, most dosimetric analyses of radiopharmaceuticals are considered complete. To translate absorbed dose estimates obtained for internal emitter therapy to biologic effect, the growth characteristics, repair capacity, and radiosensitivity of the tumor must be considered. Tumor growth may be represented by the Gompertz equation in which tumor cells increase at an exponential growth rate that is itself decreasing at an exponential rate; as the tumor increases in size, the growth rate diminishes. The empirical Gompertz expression for tumor growth may be derived from a mechanistic model in which growth is represented by a balance between tumor-cell birth and loss. The birth rate is assumed to be fixed, while the cell loss rate is time-dependent and increases with tumor size. The birth rate of the tumors may be related to their potential doubling time. Multiple biopsies of individual tumors have demonstrated a heterogeneity in the potential doubling time of tumors. By extending the mechanistic model described above to allow for sub-populations of tumor cells with different birth rates, the effect of kinetic heterogeneity within a tumor may be examined. Model simulations demonstrate that the cell kinetic parameters of a tumor are predicted to change over time and measurements obtained using a biopsy are unlikely to reflect the kinetics of the tumor throughout its growth history. A decrease in overall tumor mass, in which each sub-population is reduced in proportion to its cell number, i.e., the log-kill assumption, leads to re-growth of a tumor that has a greater proliferation rate. Therapy that is linked to the potential doubling time or to the effective proliferation rate of the tumor may lead to re-growth of a tumor that is kinetically unchanged. The simplest model of

  15. A Model of Silicate Grain Nucleation and Growth in Circumstellar Outflows

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paquette, John A.; Ferguson, Frank T.; Nuth, Joseph A., III

    2011-01-01

    Based on its abundance, high bond energy, and recent measurements of its vapor pressure SiO is a natural candidate for dust nucleation in circumstellar outflows around asymptotic giant branch stars. In this paper, we describe a model of the nucleation and growth of silicate dust in such outflows. The sensitivity of the model to varying choices of poorly constrained chemical parameters is explored, and the merits of using scaled rather than classical nucleation theory are briefly considered, An elaboration of the model that includes magnesium and iron as growth species is then presented and discussed. The composition of the bulk of the grains derived from the model is consistent with olivines and pyroxenes, but somewhat metal-rich grains and very small, nearly pure SiO grains are also produced,

  16. Continuum mathematical modelling of pathological growth of blood vessels

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stadnik, N. E.; Dats, E. P.

    2018-04-01

    The present study is devoted to the mathematical modelling of a human blood vessel pathological growth. The vessels are simulated as the thin-walled circular tube. The boundary value problem of the surface growth of an elastic thin-walled cylinder is solved. The analytical solution is obtained in terms of velocities of stress strain state parameters. The condition of thinness allows us to study finite displacements of cylinder surfaces by means of infinitesimal deformations. The stress-strain state characteristics, which depend on the mechanical parameters of the biological processes, are numerically computed and graphically analysed.

  17. Assessing tropical rainforest growth traits: Data - Model fusion in the Congo basin and beyond

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pietsch, Stephan

    2017-04-01

    Virgin forest ecosystems resemble the key reference level for natural tree growth dynamics. The mosaic cycle concept describes such dynamics as local disequilibria driven by patch level succession cycles of breakdown, regeneration, juvenescence and old growth. These cycles, however, may involve different traits of light demanding and shade tolerant species assemblies. In this work a data model fusion concept will be introduced to assess the differences in growth dynamics of the mosaic cycle of the Western Congolian Lowland Rainforest ecosystem. Field data from 34 forest patches located in an ice age forest refuge, recently pinpointed to the ground and still devoid of direct human impact up to today - resemble the data base. A 3D error assessment procedure versus BGC model simulations for the 34 patches revealed two different growth dynamics, consistent with observed growth traits of pioneer and late succession species assemblies of the Western Congolian Lowland rainforest. An application of the same procedure to Central American Pacific rainforests confirms the strength of the 3D error field data model fusion concept to Central American Pacific rainforests confirms the strength of the 3D error field data model fusion concept to assess different growth traits of the mosaic cycle of natural forest dynamics.

  18. MODELING THE GROWTH OF EUCALYPTUS PLANTS BASED ON THE THERMAL SUM

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aline Santana de Oliveira

    Full Text Available ABSTRACT Among the environmental variables that affect the growth and development of plants, the air temperature is of great importance. In this context, the objectives of this work were to model the growth of eucalyptus seedlings in terms of accumulated degree-days during the production process and model validation. The study was conducted in the forest research nursery of the Department of Forestry, located in Viçosa (MG, during the periods of 08/02/2011 to 28/04/2011 and 03/08/2012 to 01/11/2012, making it possible to contemplate seasonal variations in the production cycle. The monitored variables were shoot height, stem diameter, leaf area, root length and fresh and dry biomass. Results showed that it took 1065 degree-days for the production of seedlings and sigmoidal models obtained showed high correlation and Willmott coefficients, indicating good performance for estimating the growth and development of eucalyptus seedlings. This tool has great potential for planning and monitoring the production of eucalyptus seedlings in nurseries.

  19. Measurement of the Economic Growth and Add-on of the R.M. Solow Adjusted Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ion Gh. Rosca

    2007-08-01

    Full Text Available Besides the models of M. Keynes, R.F. Harrod, E. Domar, D. Romer, Ramsey-Cass-Koopmans model etc., the R.M. Solow model is part of the category which characterizes the economic growth.The paper aim is the economic growth measurement and add-on of the R.M. Solow adjusted model.

  20. Nonlinear models for fitting growth curves of Nellore cows reared in the Amazon Biome

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kedma Nayra da Silva Marinho

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available Growth curves of Nellore cows were estimated by comparing six nonlinear models: Brody, Logistic, two alternatives by Gompertz, Richards and Von Bertalanffy. The models were fitted to weight-age data, from birth to 750 days of age of 29,221 cows, born between 1976 and 2006 in the Brazilian states of Acre, Amapá, Amazonas, Pará, Rondônia, Roraima and Tocantins. The models were fitted by the Gauss-Newton method. The goodness of fit of the models was evaluated by using mean square error, adjusted coefficient of determination, prediction error and mean absolute error. Biological interpretation of parameters was accomplished by plotting estimated weights versus the observed weight means, instantaneous growth rate, absolute maturity rate, relative instantaneous growth rate, inflection point and magnitude of the parameters A (asymptotic weight and K (maturing rate. The Brody and Von Bertalanffy models fitted the weight-age data but the other models did not. The average weight (A and growth rate (K were: 384.6±1.63 kg and 0.0022±0.00002 (Brody and 313.40±0.70 kg and 0.0045±0.00002 (Von Bertalanffy. The Brody model provides better goodness of fit than the Von Bertalanffy model.

  1. Modeling and control of greenhouse crop growth

    CERN Document Server

    Rodríguez, Francisco; Guzmán, José Luis; Ramírez-Arias, Armando

    2015-01-01

    A discussion of challenges related to the modeling and control of greenhouse crop growth, this book presents state-of-the-art answers to those challenges. The authors model the subsystems involved in successful greenhouse control using different techniques and show how the models obtained can be exploited for simulation or control design; they suggest ideas for the development of physical and/or black-box models for this purpose. Strategies for the control of climate- and irrigation-related variables are brought forward. The uses of PID control and feedforward compensators, both widely used in commercial tools, are summarized. The benefits of advanced control techniques—event-based, robust, and predictive control, for example—are used to improve on the performance of those basic methods. A hierarchical control architecture is developed governed by a high-level multiobjective optimization approach rather than traditional constrained optimization and artificial intelligence techniques.  Reference trajector...

  2. Government technology push in agribusiness: a model of endogenous growth

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Francisco Venegas Martínez

    2008-10-01

    Full Text Available This paper develops a model of endogenous growth where the government acts as a promoting agent to boost technology in agribusiness. In the framework of a monetary economy, the optimal level of government spending to enhance technology in the agricultural industry is characterized. Moreover the impact of such a spending on economic welfare is assessed. Finally, a number of agro-oriented policies to increase growth in the sector are established.

  3. Capital accumulation, structural change and real exchange rate in a Keynesian-Structuralist growth model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Oreiro José Luis

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this paper is to show at theoretical level that maintaining a competitive real exchange rate positively affects the economic growth of developing countries by means of a Keynesian-Structuralist model that combines elements of Kaleckian growth models with the balance of payments constrained growth models pioneered developed by Thirlwall. In this setting, the level of real exchange rate is capable, due to its effect over capital accumulation, to induce a structural change in the economy, making endogenous income elasticities of exports and imports. For reasonable parameter values it is shown that in steady-state growth there is two long-run equilibrium values for real exchange rate, one that corresponds to an under-valued currency and another that corresponds to an over-valued currency. If monetary authorities run exchange rate policy in order to target a competitive level for real exchange rate, than under-valued equilibrium is stable and the economy will show a high growth rate in the long-run.

  4. What drives health care expenditure?--Baumol's model of 'unbalanced growth' revisited.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hartwig, Jochen

    2008-05-01

    The share of health care expenditure in GDP rises rapidly in virtually all OECD countries, causing increasing concern among politicians and the general public. Yet, economists have to date failed to reach an agreement on what the main determinants of this development are. This paper revisits Baumol's [Baumol, W.J., 1967. Macroeconomics of unbalanced growth: the anatomy of urban crisis. American Economic Review 57 (3), 415-426] model of 'unbalanced growth', showing that the latter offers a ready explanation for the observed inexorable rise in health care expenditure. The main implication of Baumol's model in this context is that health care expenditure is driven by wage increases in excess of productivity growth. This hypothesis is tested empirically using data from a panel of 19 OECD countries. Our tests yield robust evidence in favor of Baumol's theory.

  5. Values of Land and Renewable Resources in a Three-Sector Economic Growth Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhang Wei-Bin

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available This paper studies dynamic interdependence of capital, land and resource values in a three sector growth model with endogenous wealth and renewable resources. The model is based on the neoclassical growth theory, Ricardian theory and growth theory with renewable resources. The household’s decision is modeled with an alternative approach proposed by Zhang two decades ago. The economic system consists of the households, industrial, agricultural, and resource sectors. The model describes a dynamic interdependence between wealth accumulation, resource change, and division of labor under perfect competition. We simulate the model to demonstrate the existence of a unique stable equilibrium point and plot the motion of the dynamic system. The study conducts comparative dynamic analysis with regard to changes in the propensity to consume resources, the propensity to consume housing, the propensity to consume agricultural goods, the propensity to consume industrial goods, the propensity to save, the population, and the output elasticity of capital of the resource sector.

  6. A demographic model to predict future growth of the Addo elephant population

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A.M. Woodd

    1999-07-01

    Full Text Available An age-structured demographic model of the growth of the Addo elephant population was developed using parameters calculated from long-term data on the population. The model was used to provide estimates of future population growth. Expansion of the Addo Elephant National Park is currently underway, and the proposed target population size for elephant within the enlarged park is 2700. The model predicts that this population size will be reached during the year 2043, so that the Addo elephant population can continue to increase for a further 44 years before its target size within the enlarged park is attained.

  7. Growth Curve and Structural Equation Modeling : Topics from the Indian Statistical Institute

    CERN Document Server

    2015-01-01

    This book describes some recent trends in GCM research on different subject areas, both theoretical and applied. This includes tools and possibilities for further work through new techniques and modification of existing ones. A growth curve is an empirical model of the evolution of a quantity over time. Growth curves in longitudinal studies are used in disciplines including biology, statistics, population studies, economics, biological sciences, sociology, nano-biotechnology, and fluid mechanics. The volume includes original studies, theoretical findings and case studies from a wide range of applied work. This volume builds on presentations from a GCM workshop held at the Indian Statistical Institute, Giridih, January 18-19, 2014. This book follows the volume Advances in Growth Curve Models, published by Springer in 2013. The results have meaningful application in health care, prediction of crop yield, child nutrition, poverty measurements, estimation of growth rate, and other research areas.

  8. Modeling growth of specific spoilage organisms in tilapia ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Tilapia is an important aquatic fish, but severe spoilage of tilapia is most likely related to the global aquaculture. The spoilage is mostly caused by specific spoilage organisms (SSO). Therefore, it is very important to use microbial models to predict the growth of SSO in tilapia. This study firstly verified Pseudomonas and Vibrio ...

  9. Modelling the Growth and Volatility in Daily International Mass Tourism to Peru

    OpenAIRE

    Jose Angelo Divino; Michael McAleer

    2009-01-01

    Peru is a South American country that is divided into two parts by the Andes Mountains. The rich historical, cultural and geographic diversity has led to the inclusion of ten Peruvian sites on UNESCO’s World Heritage List. For the potential negative impacts of mass tourism on the environment, and hence on future international tourism demand, to be managed appropriately require modelling growth rates and volatility adequately. The paper models the growth rate and volatility (or the variability...

  10. Process-based modelling of tree and stand growth: towards a hierarchical treatment of multiscale processes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Makela, A.

    2003-01-01

    A generally accepted method has not emerged for managing the different temporal and spatial scales in a forest ecosystem. This paper reviews a hierarchical-modular modelling tradition, with the main focus on individual tree growth throughout the rotation. At this scale, model performance requires (i) realistic long-term dynamic properties, (ii) realistic responses of growth and mortality of competing individuals, and (iii) realistic responses to ecophysio-logical inputs. Model development and validation are illustrated through allocation patterns, height growth, and size-related feedbacks. Empirical work to test the approach is reviewed. In this approach, finer scale effects are embedded in parameters calculated using more detailed, interacting modules. This is exemplified by (i) the within-year effect of weather on annual photosynthesis, (ii) the effects of fast soil processes on carbon allocation and photosynthesis, and (iii) the utilization of detailed stem structure to predict wood quality. Prevailing management paradigms are reflected in growth modelling. A shift of emphasis has occurred from productivity in homogeneous canopies towards, e.g., wood quality versus total yield, spatially more explicit models, and growth decline in old-growth forests. The new problems emphasize the hierarchy of the system and interscale interactions, suggesting that the hierarchical-modular approach could prove constructive. (author)

  11. Growth impairment after TBI of leukemia survivors children: a model- based investigation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Galletto, Chiara; Gliozzi, Antonio; Nucera, Daniele; Bertorello, Nicoletta; Biasin, Eleonora; Corrias, Andrea; Chiabotto, Patrizia; Fagioli, Franca; Guiot, Caterina

    2014-10-13

    Children receiving Total Body Irradiation (TBI) in preparation for Hematopoietic Stem Cell Transplantation (HSCT) are at risk for Growth Hormone Deficiency (GHD), which sometimes severely compromises their Final Height (FH). To better represent the impact of such therapies on growth we apply a mathematical model, which accounts both for the gompertzian-like growth trend and the hormone-related 'spurts', and evaluate how the parameter values estimated on the children undergoing TBI differ from those of the matched normal population. 25 patients long-term childhood lymphoblastic and myeloid acute leukaemia survivors followed at Pediatric Onco-Hematology, Stem Cell Transplantation and Cellular Therapy Division, Regina Margherita Children's Hospital (Turin, Italy) were retrospectively analysed for assessing the influence of TBI on their longitudinal growth and for validating a new method to estimate the GH therapy effects. Six were treated with GH therapy after a GHD diagnosis. We show that when TBI was performed before puberty overall growth and pubertal duration were significantly impaired, but such growth limitations were completely reverted in the small sample (6 over 25) of children who underwent GH replacement therapies. Since in principle the model could account for any additional growth 'spurt' induced by therapy, it may become a useful 'simulation' tool for paediatricians for comparing the predicted therapy effectiveness depending on its timing and dosage.

  12. Nonlinear Structured Growth Mixture Models in M"plus" and OpenMx

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grimm, Kevin J.; Ram, Nilam; Estabrook, Ryne

    2010-01-01

    Growth mixture models (GMMs; B. O. Muthen & Muthen, 2000; B. O. Muthen & Shedden, 1999) are a combination of latent curve models (LCMs) and finite mixture models to examine the existence of latent classes that follow distinct developmental patterns. GMMs are often fit with linear, latent basis, multiphase, or polynomial change models…

  13. A computer model for hydride blister growth in zirconium alloys

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    White, A.J.; Sawatzky, A.; Woo, C.H.

    1985-06-01

    The failure of a Zircaloy-2 pressure tube in the Pickering unit 2 reactor started at a series of zirconium hydride blisters on the outside of the pressure tube. These blisters resulted from the thermal diffusion of hydrogen to the cooler regions of the pressure tube. In this report the physics of thermal diffusion of hydrogen in zirconium is reviewed and a computer model for blister growth in two-dimensional Cartesian geometry is described. The model is used to show that the blister-growth rate in a two-phase zirconium/zirconium-hydride region does not depend on the initial hydrogen concentration nor on the hydrogen pick-up rate, and that for a fixed far-field temperature there is an optimum pressure-type/calandria-tube contact temperature for growing blisters. The model described here can also be used to study large-scale effects, such as hydrogen-depletion zones around hydride blisters

  14. Spatial models reveal the microclimatic buffering capacity of old-growth forests.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frey, Sarah J K; Hadley, Adam S; Johnson, Sherri L; Schulze, Mark; Jones, Julia A; Betts, Matthew G

    2016-04-01

    Climate change is predicted to cause widespread declines in biodiversity, but these predictions are derived from coarse-resolution climate models applied at global scales. Such models lack the capacity to incorporate microclimate variability, which is critical to biodiversity microrefugia. In forested montane regions, microclimate is thought to be influenced by combined effects of elevation, microtopography, and vegetation, but their relative effects at fine spatial scales are poorly known. We used boosted regression trees to model the spatial distribution of fine-scale, under-canopy air temperatures in mountainous terrain. Spatial models predicted observed independent test data well (r = 0.87). As expected, elevation strongly predicted temperatures, but vegetation and microtopography also exerted critical effects. Old-growth vegetation characteristics, measured using LiDAR (light detection and ranging), appeared to have an insulating effect; maximum spring monthly temperatures decreased by 2.5°C across the observed gradient in old-growth structure. These cooling effects across a gradient in forest structure are of similar magnitude to 50-year forecasts of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and therefore have the potential to mitigate climate warming at local scales. Management strategies to conserve old-growth characteristics and to curb current rates of primary forest loss could maintain microrefugia, enhancing biodiversity persistence in mountainous systems under climate warming.

  15. Orientation selection of equiaxed dendritic growth by three-dimensional cellular automaton model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wei Lei [State Key Laboratory of Solidification Processing, Northwestern Polytechnical University, Xi' an 710072 (China); Lin Xin, E-mail: xlin@nwpu.edu.cn [State Key Laboratory of Solidification Processing, Northwestern Polytechnical University, Xi' an 710072 (China); Wang Meng; Huang Weidong [State Key Laboratory of Solidification Processing, Northwestern Polytechnical University, Xi' an 710072 (China)

    2012-07-01

    A three-dimensional (3-D) adaptive mesh refinement (AMR) cellular automata (CA) model is developed to simulate the equiaxed dendritic growth of pure substance. In order to reduce the mesh induced anisotropy by CA capture rules, a limited neighbor solid fraction (LNSF) method is presented. It is shown that the LNSF method reduced the mesh induced anisotropy based on the simulated morphologies for isotropic interface free energy. An expansion description using two interface free energy anisotropy parameters ({epsilon}{sub 1}, {epsilon}{sub 2}) is used in the present 3-D CA model. It is illustrated by present 3-D CA model that the positive {epsilon}{sub 1} favors the dendritic growth with the Left-Pointing-Angle-Bracket 100 Right-Pointing-Angle-Bracket preferred directions, and negative {epsilon}{sub 2} favors dendritic growth with the Left-Pointing-Angle-Bracket 110 Right-Pointing-Angle-Bracket preferred directions, which has a good agreement with the prediction of the spherical plot of the inverse of the interfacial stiffness. The dendritic growths with the orientation selection between Left-Pointing-Angle-Bracket 100 Right-Pointing-Angle-Bracket and Left-Pointing-Angle-Bracket 110 Right-Pointing-Angle-Bracket are also discussed using the different {epsilon}{sub 1} with {epsilon}{sub 2}=-0.02. It is found that the simulated morphologies by present CA model are as expected from the minimum stiffness criterion.

  16. MODELING OF INTERACTION LAYER GROWTH BETWEEN U-Mo PARTICLES AND AN Al MATRIX

    OpenAIRE

    YEON SOO KIM; G.L. HOFMAN; HO JIN RYU; JONG MAN PARK; A.B. ROBINSON; D.M. WACHS

    2013-01-01

    Interaction layer growth between U-Mo alloy fuel particles and Al in a dispersion fuel is a concern due to the volume expansion and other unfavorable irradiation behavior of the interaction product. To reduce interaction layer (IL) growth, a small amount of Si is added to the Al. As a result, IL growth is affected by the Si content in the Al matrix. In order to predict IL growth during fabrication and irradiation, empirical models were developed. For IL growth prediction during fabrication an...

  17. Water security, risk and economic growth: lessons from a dynamical systems model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dadson, Simon; Hall, Jim; Garrick, Dustin; Sadoff, Claudia; Grey, David; Whittington, Dale

    2016-04-01

    Investments in the physical infrastructure, human capital, and institutions needed for water resources management have been a noteworthy feature in the development of most civilisations. These investments affect the economy in two distinct ways: (i) by improving the factor productivity of water in multiple sectors of the economy, especially those that are water intensive such as agriculture and energy; and (ii) by reducing the acute and chronic harmful effects of water-related hazards like floods, droughts, and water-related diseases. The need for capital investment to mitigate these risks in order to promote economic growth is widely acknowledged, but prior work to conceptualise the relationship between water-related risks and economic growth has focused on the productive and harmful roles of water in the economy independently. Here the two influences are combined using a simple, dynamical model of water-related investment, risk, and growth at the national level. The model suggests the existence of a context-specific threshold above which growth proceeds along an 'S'-curve. In many cases there is a requirement for initial investment in water-related assets to enable growth. Below the threshold it is possible for a poverty trap to arise. The presence and location of the poverty trap is context-specific and depends on the relative exposure of productive water-related assets to risk, compared with risks faced by assets in the wider economy. Exogenous changes in the level of water-related risk (through, for example, climate and land cover change) can potentially push an economy away from a growth path towards a poverty trap. These results illustrate the value of accounting for environmental risk in models of economic growth and may offer guidance in the design of robust policies for investment in water-related productive assets to manage risk, particularly in the face of global and regional environmental change.

  18. Populational Growth Models Proportional to Beta Densities with Allee Effect

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aleixo, Sandra M.; Rocha, J. Leonel; Pestana, Dinis D.

    2009-05-01

    We consider populations growth models with Allee effect, proportional to beta densities with shape parameters p and 2, where the dynamical complexity is related with the Malthusian parameter r. For p>2, these models exhibit a population dynamics with natural Allee effect. However, in the case of 1models do not include this effect. In order to inforce it, we present some alternative models and investigate their dynamics, presenting some important results.

  19. A nonlinear model for surface segregation and solute trapping during planar film growth

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Han, Xiaoying; Spencer, Brian J.

    2007-01-01

    Surface segregation and solute trapping during planar film growth is one of the important issues in molecular beam epitaxy, yet the study on surface composition has been largely restricted to experimental work. This paper introduces some mathematical models of surface composition during planar film growth. Analytical solutions are obtained for the surface composition during growth

  20. Oscillations in a Growth Model with Capital, Technology and Environment with Exogenous Shocks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wei-Bin Zhang

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available This paper generalizes the dynamic growth model with wealth accumulation, technological change and environmental change by Zhang (2012 by making all the parameters as time-dependent parameters. The model treats physical capital accumulation, knowledge creation and utilization, and environmental change as endogenous variables. It synthesizes the basic ideas of the neoclassical growth theory, Arrow’s learning-by-doing model and the traditional dynamic models of environmental change within a comprehensive framework. The behavior of the household is described with an alternative approach to household behavior. We simulated the model to demonstrate existence of equilibrium points, motion of the dynamic system, and oscillations due to different exogenous shocks.

  1. A New Strategy in Observer Modeling for Greenhouse Cucumber Seedling Growth

    Science.gov (United States)

    Qiu, Quan; Zheng, Chenfei; Wang, Wenping; Qiao, Xiaojun; Bai, He; Yu, Jingquan; Shi, Kai

    2017-01-01

    State observer is an essential component in computerized control loops for greenhouse-crop systems. However, the current accomplishments of observer modeling for greenhouse-crop systems mainly focus on mass/energy balance, ignoring physiological responses of crops. As a result, state observers for crop physiological responses are rarely developed, and control operations are typically made based on experience rather than actual crop requirements. In addition, existing observer models require a large number of parameters, leading to heavy computational load and poor application feasibility. To address these problems, we present a new state observer modeling strategy that takes both environmental information and crop physiological responses into consideration during the observer modeling process. Using greenhouse cucumber seedlings as an instance, we sample 10 physiological parameters of cucumber seedlings at different time point during the exponential growth stage, and employ them to build growth state observers together with 8 environmental parameters. Support vector machine (SVM) acts as the mathematical tool for observer modeling. Canonical correlation analysis (CCA) is used to select the dominant environmental and physiological parameters in the modeling process. With the dominant parameters, simplified observer models are built and tested. We conduct contrast experiments with different input parameter combinations on simplified and un-simplified observers. Experimental results indicate that physiological information can improve the prediction accuracies of the growth state observers. Furthermore, the simplified observer models can give equivalent or even better performance than the un-simplified ones, which verifies the feasibility of CCA. The current study can enable state observers to reflect crop requirements and make them feasible for applications with simplified shapes, which is significant for developing intelligent greenhouse control systems for modern

  2. A New Strategy in Observer Modeling for Greenhouse Cucumber Seedling Growth

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Quan Qiu

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available State observer is an essential component in computerized control loops for greenhouse-crop systems. However, the current accomplishments of observer modeling for greenhouse-crop systems mainly focus on mass/energy balance, ignoring physiological responses of crops. As a result, state observers for crop physiological responses are rarely developed, and control operations are typically made based on experience rather than actual crop requirements. In addition, existing observer models require a large number of parameters, leading to heavy computational load and poor application feasibility. To address these problems, we present a new state observer modeling strategy that takes both environmental information and crop physiological responses into consideration during the observer modeling process. Using greenhouse cucumber seedlings as an instance, we sample 10 physiological parameters of cucumber seedlings at different time point during the exponential growth stage, and employ them to build growth state observers together with 8 environmental parameters. Support vector machine (SVM acts as the mathematical tool for observer modeling. Canonical correlation analysis (CCA is used to select the dominant environmental and physiological parameters in the modeling process. With the dominant parameters, simplified observer models are built and tested. We conduct contrast experiments with different input parameter combinations on simplified and un-simplified observers. Experimental results indicate that physiological information can improve the prediction accuracies of the growth state observers. Furthermore, the simplified observer models can give equivalent or even better performance than the un-simplified ones, which verifies the feasibility of CCA. The current study can enable state observers to reflect crop requirements and make them feasible for applications with simplified shapes, which is significant for developing intelligent greenhouse control

  3. A New Strategy in Observer Modeling for Greenhouse Cucumber Seedling Growth.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Qiu, Quan; Zheng, Chenfei; Wang, Wenping; Qiao, Xiaojun; Bai, He; Yu, Jingquan; Shi, Kai

    2017-01-01

    State observer is an essential component in computerized control loops for greenhouse-crop systems. However, the current accomplishments of observer modeling for greenhouse-crop systems mainly focus on mass/energy balance, ignoring physiological responses of crops. As a result, state observers for crop physiological responses are rarely developed, and control operations are typically made based on experience rather than actual crop requirements. In addition, existing observer models require a large number of parameters, leading to heavy computational load and poor application feasibility. To address these problems, we present a new state observer modeling strategy that takes both environmental information and crop physiological responses into consideration during the observer modeling process. Using greenhouse cucumber seedlings as an instance, we sample 10 physiological parameters of cucumber seedlings at different time point during the exponential growth stage, and employ them to build growth state observers together with 8 environmental parameters. Support vector machine (SVM) acts as the mathematical tool for observer modeling. Canonical correlation analysis (CCA) is used to select the dominant environmental and physiological parameters in the modeling process. With the dominant parameters, simplified observer models are built and tested. We conduct contrast experiments with different input parameter combinations on simplified and un-simplified observers. Experimental results indicate that physiological information can improve the prediction accuracies of the growth state observers. Furthermore, the simplified observer models can give equivalent or even better performance than the un-simplified ones, which verifies the feasibility of CCA. The current study can enable state observers to reflect crop requirements and make them feasible for applications with simplified shapes, which is significant for developing intelligent greenhouse control systems for modern

  4. Re-parametrization of a swine model to predict growth performance of broilers

    OpenAIRE

    Dukhta, G.; van Milgen, Jacob; Kövér, G.; Halas, V.

    2017-01-01

    The aim of the study was to investigate whether a pig growth model is suitable to be modified and adapted for broilers. As monogastric animals, pigs and poultry share many similarities in their digestion and metabolism, many structures (body protein and lipid stores) and the nutrient flows of the underlying metabolic pathways are similar among species. For that purpose, the InraPorc model was used as a basis to predict growth performance and body composition at slaughter in broilers. First...

  5. Predicting growth of the healthy infant using a genome scale metabolic model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nilsson, Avlant; Mardinoglu, Adil; Nielsen, Jens

    2017-01-01

    to simulate the mechanisms of growth and integrate data about breast-milk intake and composition with the infant's biomass and energy expenditure of major organs. The model predicted daily metabolic fluxes from birth to age 6 months, and accurately reproduced standard growth curves and changes in body...

  6. [Employment and urban growth; an application of Czamanski's model to the Mexican case].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Verduzco Chavez, B

    1991-01-01

    The author applies the 1964 model developed by Stanislaw Czamanski, based on theories of urban growth and industrial localization, to the analysis of urban growth in Mexico. "The advantages of this model in its application as a support instrument in the process of urban planning when the information available is incomplete are...discussed...." Census data for 44 cities in Mexico are used. (SUMMARY IN ENG) excerpt

  7. Modelling growth of Penicillium expansum and Aspergillus niger at constant and fluctuating temperature conditions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gougouli, Maria; Koutsoumanis, Konstantinos P

    2010-06-15

    The growth of Penicillium expansum and Aspergillus niger, isolated from yogurt production environment, was investigated on malt extract agar with pH=4.2 and a(w)=0.997, simulating yogurt, at isothermal conditions ranging from -1.3 to 35 degrees C and from 5 to 42.3 degrees C, respectively. The growth rate (mu) and (apparent) lag time (lambda) of the mycelium growth were modelled as a function of temperature using a Cardinal Model with Inflection (CMI). The results showed that the CMI can describe successfully the effect of temperature on fungal growth within the entire biokinetic range for both isolates. The estimated values of the CMI for mu were T(min)=-5.74 degrees C, T(max)=30.97 degrees C, T(opt)=22.08 degrees C and mu(opt)=0.221 mm/h for P. expansum and T(min)=10.13 degrees C, T(max)=43.13 degrees C, T(opt)=31.44 degrees C, and mu(opt)=0.840 mm/h for A. niger. The cardinal values for lambda were very close to the respective values for mu indicating similar temperature dependence of the growth rate and the lag time of the mycelium growth. The developed models were further validated under fluctuating temperature conditions using various dynamic temperature scenarios. The time-temperature conditions studied included single temperature shifts before or after the end of the lag time and continuous periodic temperature fluctuations. The prediction of growth at changing temperature was based on the assumption that after a temperature shift the growth rate is adopted instantaneously to the new temperature, while the lag time was predicted using a cumulative lag approach. The results showed that when the temperature shifts occurred before the end of the lag, they did not cause any significant additional lag and the observed total lag was very close to the cumulative lag predicted by the model. In experiments with temperature shifts after the end of the lag time, accurate predictions were obtained when the temperature profile included temperatures which were inside the

  8. Catalyst design for carbon nanotube growth using atomistic modeling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pint, Cary L; Bozzolo, Guillermo; Hauge, Robert

    2008-01-01

    The formation and stability of bimetallic catalyst particles, in the framework of carbon nanotube growth, is studied using the Bozzolo-Ferrante-Smith (BFS) method for alloys. Monte Carlo-Metropolis simulations with the BFS method are utilized in order to predict and study equilibrium configurations for nanoscale catalyst particles which are directly relevant to the catalyst state prior to growth of carbon nanotubes. At the forefront of possible catalyst combinations is the popular Fe-Mo bimetallic catalyst, which we have recently studied experimentally. We explain our experimental results, which indicate that the growth observed is dependent on the order of co-catalyst deposition, in the straightforward interpretation of BFS strain and chemical energy contributions toward the formation of Fe-Mo catalyst prior to growth. We find that the competition between the formation of metastable inner Mo cores and clusters of surface-segregated Mo atoms in Fe-Mo catalyst particles influences catalyst formation, and we investigate the role of Mo concentration and catalyst particle size in this process. Finally, we apply the same modeling approach to other prominent bimetallic catalysts and suggest that this technique can be a powerful tool to understand and manipulate catalyst design for highly efficient carbon nanotube growth

  9. Growth of the modeling of Escherichia coli in milk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mbangu, N.; Malakasa, M.; Ekalakala, T.; N'dendje, B.; Abedi, M.; Muzembe, K.; Bandejile, M.

    2010-01-01

    Escherichia coli is a contaminant potential of milk. Collective toxinfections implying the bacterium and milk were announced of share the world. However, no identified work proposed a mathematical expression of the growth of the bacterium in milk. The interest of such a step is however undeniable. Under specified conditions, the mathematical formulation of the growth provides the means of considering the population bacterial when the analyses cannot be carried out. It also makes it possible to test the negatiable instruments of the unfavourable circumstances supposed suchas chain breakage of cold on the development of the microbial charge. This work established mathematical expressions of the growth of Escherichia coli in milk for part of its range of temperature of growth suboptimale i.e. between 25 and 35 Deg C. It was not possible to generalize these expressions for predictions on all the range of temperature suboptimal. This work also made it possible to highlight a deviation of the behavoir of the bacterium compared to the model of Ratkowsky without however that it is not possible to provide a univocal explanantion of it. Varoius assumptions were put forth referring to either a singularity of the behavior of the bacterium or a skew of the value of its minimal temperature of growth

  10. Growth and energy nexus in Europe revisited: Evidence from a fixed effects political economy model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Menegaki, Angeliki N.; Ozturk, Ilhan

    2013-01-01

    This is an empirical study on the causal relationship between economic growth and energy for 26 European countries in a multivariate panel framework over the period 1975–2009 using a two-way fixed effects model and including greenhouse gas emissions, capital, fossil energy consumption, Herfindahl index (political competition) and number of years the government chief executive stays in office (political stability) as independent variables in the model. Empirical results confirm bidirectional causality between growth and political stability, capital and political stability, capital and fossil energy consumption. Whether political stability favors the implementation of growth or leads to corruption demands further research. - Highlights: • Economic growth and energy for 26 European countries is examined. • Two-way fixed effects model with political economy variables is employed. • Bidirectional causality is observed between growth and political stability

  11. Model for predicting non-linear crack growth considering load sequence effects (LOSEQ)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fuehring, H.

    1982-01-01

    A new analytical model for predicting non-linear crack growth is presented which takes into account the retardation as well as the acceleration effects due to irregular loading. It considers not only the maximum peak of a load sequence to effect crack growth but also all other loads of the history according to a generalised memory criterion. Comparisons between crack growth predicted by using the LOSEQ-programme and experimentally observed data are presented. (orig.) [de

  12. Developing a dynamic growth model for teak plantations in India

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vindhya Prasad Tewari

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available Background Tectona grandis (teak is one of the most important tropical timber speciesoccurring naturally in India. Appropriate growth models, based on advanced modeling techniques,are not available but are necessary for the successful management of teak stands in the country.Long-term forest planning requires mathematical models, and the principles of Dynamical SystemTheory provide a solid foundation for these. Methods The state-space approach makes it possible to accommodate disturbances and avarying environment. In this paper, an attempt has been made to develop a dynamic growthmodel based on the limited data, consisting of three annual measurements, collected from 22 teak sample plots in Karnataka, Southern India. Results A biologically consistent whole-stand growth model has been presented which uses thestate-space approach for modelling rates of change of three state-variables viz., dominant height,stems per hectare and stand basal area. Moreover, the model includes a stand volume equationas an output function to estimate this variable at any point in time. Transition functions werefitted separately and simultaneously. Moreover, a continuous autoregressive error structure isalso included in the modelling process. For fitting volume equation, generalized method of moments was used to get efficient parameter estimates under heteroscedastic conditions. Conclusions A simple model containing few free parameters performed well and is particularlywell suited to situations where available data is scarce.

  13. From Personal Growth (1966) to Personal Growth and Social Agency (2016)--Proposing an Invigorated Model for the 21st Century

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goodwyn, Andrew

    2017-01-01

    The Personal Growth (PG) model, as outlined by John Dixon in 1967, is unquestionably still recognisable to English teachers, remaining aligned to their philosophy of teaching English. This article traces a key aspect of the history of Personal Growth and explores present continuities traceable to Dartmouth in 1966, in suggesting an invigorated…

  14. Metabolic modeling of energy balances in Mycoplasma hyopneumoniae shows that pyruvate addition increases growth rate.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kamminga, Tjerko; Slagman, Simen-Jan; Bijlsma, Jetta J E; Martins Dos Santos, Vitor A P; Suarez-Diez, Maria; Schaap, Peter J

    2017-10-01

    Mycoplasma hyopneumoniae is cultured on large-scale to produce antigen for inactivated whole-cell vaccines against respiratory disease in pigs. However, the fastidious nutrient requirements of this minimal bacterium and the low growth rate make it challenging to reach sufficient biomass yield for antigen production. In this study, we sequenced the genome of M. hyopneumoniae strain 11 and constructed a high quality constraint-based genome-scale metabolic model of 284 chemical reactions and 298 metabolites. We validated the model with time-series data of duplicate fermentation cultures to aim for an integrated model describing the dynamic profiles measured in fermentations. The model predicted that 84% of cellular energy in a standard M. hyopneumoniae cultivation was used for non-growth associated maintenance and only 16% of cellular energy was used for growth and growth associated maintenance. Following a cycle of model-driven experimentation in dedicated fermentation experiments, we were able to increase the fraction of cellular energy used for growth through pyruvate addition to the medium. This increase in turn led to an increase in growth rate and a 2.3 times increase in the total biomass concentration reached after 3-4 days of fermentation, enhancing the productivity of the overall process. The model presented provides a solid basis to understand and further improve M. hyopneumoniae fermentation processes. Biotechnol. Bioeng. 2017;114: 2339-2347. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  15. Short-ranged memory model with preferential growth

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schaigorodsky, Ana L.; Perotti, Juan I.; Almeira, Nahuel; Billoni, Orlando V.

    2018-02-01

    In this work we introduce a variant of the Yule-Simon model for preferential growth by incorporating a finite kernel to model the effects of bounded memory. We characterize the properties of the model combining analytical arguments with extensive numerical simulations. In particular, we analyze the lifetime and popularity distributions by mapping the model dynamics to corresponding Markov chains and branching processes, respectively. These distributions follow power laws with well-defined exponents that are within the range of the empirical data reported in ecologies. Interestingly, by varying the innovation rate, this simple out-of-equilibrium model exhibits many of the characteristics of a continuous phase transition and, around the critical point, it generates time series with power-law popularity, lifetime and interevent time distributions, and nontrivial temporal correlations, such as a bursty dynamics in analogy with the activity of solar flares. Our results suggest that an appropriate balance between innovation and oblivion rates could provide an explanatory framework for many of the properties commonly observed in many complex systems.

  16. Modelling and computing the peaks of carbon emission with balanced growth

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chang, Shuhua; Wang, Xinyu; Wang, Zheng

    2016-01-01

    Highlights: • We use a more practical utility function to quantify the society’s welfare. • A so-called discontinuous Galerkin method is proposed to solve the ordinary differential equation satisfied by the consumption. • The theoretical results of the discontinuous Galerkin method are obtained. • We establish a Markov model to forecast the energy mix and the industrial structure. - Abstract: In this paper, we assume that under the balanced and optimal economic growth path, the economic growth rate is equal to the consumption growth rate, from which we can obtain the ordinary differential equation governing the consumption level by solving an optimal control problem. Then, a novel numerical method, namely a so-called discontinuous Galerkin method, is applied to solve the ordinary differential equation. The error estimation and the superconvergence estimation of this method are also performed. The model’s mechanism, which makes our assumption coherent, is that once the energy intensity is given, the economic growth is determined, followed by the GDP, the energy demand and the emissions. By applying this model to China, we obtain the conclusion that under the balanced and optimal economic growth path the CO_2 emission will reach its peak in 2030 in China, which is consistent with the U.S.-China Joint Announcement on Climate Change and with other previous scientific results.

  17. Exploring Bioeconomy Growth through the Public Release of the Biomass Scenario Model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Newes, Emily K [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Biddy, Mary J [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Bush, Brian W [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Inman, Daniel J [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Vimmerstedt, Laura J [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Peterson, Steve [Lexidyne, LLC

    2017-08-02

    The Biomass Scenario Model (BSM) is an important tool for exploring vibrant future bioeconomy scenarios that leverage domestic resources. Developed by NREL and BETO, this model of the domestic biofuels supply chain has been used to explore success strategies for BETO's activities towards bioeconomy growth. The BSM offers a robust test bed for detailed exploration of effects of BETO activities within the complex context of resource availability; physical, technological, and economic constraints; behavior; and policy. The public release of the model in 2017 will allow broad engagement with the theme of the conference as model users can analyze bioeconomy growth, domestic biomass resource use, and associated effects. The BSM is a carefully validated, state-of-the-art, dynamic model of the biomass to biofuels supply chain. Using a system dynamics simulation modeling approach, the model tracks long-term deployment of biofuels given technology development and investment, considering land availability, the competing oil market, consumer demand, and government policies over time. Sample outputs include biofuels production, feedstock use, capital investment, incentives, and costs of feedstocks and fuels. BSM scenarios reveal technological, economic, and policy challenges, as well as opportunities for dynamic growth of the bioeconomy with strategic public and private investment at key points in the system. The model logic and results have been reviewed extensively, through collaborative analysis, expert reviews and external publications (https://www.zotero.org/groups/bsm_publications/).

  18. Modeling determinants of growth: evidence for a community-based target in height?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aßmann, Christian; Hermanussen, Michael

    2013-07-01

    Human growth is traditionally envisaged as a target-seeking process regulated by genes, nutrition, health, and the state of an individual's social and economic environment; it is believed that under optimal physical conditions, an individual will achieve his or her full genetic potential. Using a panel data set on individual height increments, we suggest a statistical modeling approach that characterizes growth as first-order trend stationary and allows for controlling individual growth tempo via observable measures of individual maturity. A Bayesian framework and corresponding Markov-chain Monte Carlo techniques allowing for a conceptually stringent treatment of missing values are adapted for parameter estimation. The model provides evidence for the adjustment of the individual growth rate toward average height of the population. The increase in adult body height during the past 150 y has been explained by the steady improvement of living conditions that are now being considered to have reached an optimum in Western societies. The current investigation questions the notion that the traditional concept in the understanding of this target-seeking process is sufficient. We consider an additional regulator that possibly points at community-based target seeking in growth.

  19. POPULATION GROWTH AND PREFERENCE CHANGE IN A GENERALIZED SOLOW GROWTH MODEL WITH GENDER TIME DISTRIBUTIONS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wei-Bin Zhang

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available The study builds a model of dynamic interactions between the birth rate, the mortality rate, the population, wealth accumulation, time distribution between work, leisure and children caring, habit formation and preference change. The production technology and markets are built on the Solow growth model. We base our modeling the population dynamics on the Haavelmo population model and the Barro-Becker fertility choice model. This study takes account of habit formation and preference change. Although it is influenced by the Ramsey growth theory with time preference and habit formation, it uses Zhang’s approach to the household with habit formation and preference change. We synthesize different dynamic forces in a compact framework, using the utility function proposed by Zhang. Analytically, we focus on transitional processes as well as economic equilibrium. As the economic system is given by autonomous nonlinear differential equations, it is not easy to analyze its behavior. We simulate the model to demonstrate the existence of an equilibrium point and plot the motion of the dynamic system. We examine the effects of changes in weights given to the habit stock of children, the wife’s wage rate having negative impact on the propensity to have children, the wife weighing less the habit stock of leisure time, the wife’s habit stock of leisure time having negative impact on the husband’s propensity to use leisure time, the wife’s wage rate having negative impact on the husband’s propensity to use leisure time, woman’s human capital being improved, a rise in the total factor productivity, and the mother spending more time on each child fostering.

  20. Hydrothermal time models for conidial germination and mycelial growth of the seed pathogen Pyrenophora semeniperda

    Science.gov (United States)

    Connor W. Barth; Susan E. Meyer; Julie Beckstead; Phil S. Allen

    2015-01-01

    Population-based threshold models using hydrothermal time (HTT) have been widely used to model seed germination. We used HTT to model conidial germination and mycelial growth for the seed pathogen Pyrenophora semeniperda in a novel approach to understanding its interactions with host seeds. Germination time courses and mycelial growth rates for P.semeniperda were...

  1. A Discrete Monetary Economic Growth Model with the MIU Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wei-Bin Zhang

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper proposes an alternative approach to economic growth with money. The production side is the same as the Solow model, the Ramsey model, and the Tobin model. But we deal with behavior of consumers differently from the traditional approaches. The model is influenced by the money-in-the-utility (MIU approach in monetary economics. It provides a mechanism of endogenous saving which the Solow model lacks and avoids the assumption of adding up utility over a period of time upon which the Ramsey approach is based.

  2. Elastic Labour Supply and Home Production in a Monetary Growth Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wei-Bin Zhang

    2011-10-01

    Full Text Available This study constructs a monetary gender growth model with capital accumulation and endogenous labour supply. The real aspects of the model are based on the neoclassical growth theory and monetary aspects of the model are based on the cash-in-advance (CIA approach. We show that the dynamics of the economy can be described by 2-dimensional differential equations. We simulate equilibrium and motion of the economy with specified monetary policies, household preference and technology. As the monetary economic system is unstable, the economy may either experience unlimited growth or economic crisis. We also study effects of changes in some parameters on the economic equilibrium. For instance, as the woman raises her propensity to stay at home, the capital intensity is not affected, which results in that the wage rates, the rate and output level per unit of labour input are not affected. Nevertheless, the man increases his work time and the woman reduces her work time, resulting in the fall of the labour supply. The money holing, durable goods used at home and consumption level per household are reduced; also the total wealth, total capital inputs, total durable goods and total output levels are reduced.

  3. Fiscal and monetary policy interactions in an endogenous growth model with financial intermediaries

    OpenAIRE

    Espinosa, Marco A.; Yip, Chong K.

    1995-01-01

    We review some inflationary and growth claims surrounding fiscal and monetary policy interactions. While financial intermediation has long been acknowledged as a key mechanism in the transmission of these interactions, only recently have economists incorporated the explicit modeling of such intermediaries in their analyses. Here we model financial intermediaries explicitly. We find that the relation between growth and inflation depends crucially on the agents' degree of relative risk aversion...

  4. System dynamic modelling of industrial growth and landscape ecology in China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Jian; Kang, Jian; Shao, Long; Zhao, Tianyu

    2015-09-15

    With the rapid development of large industrial corridors in China, the landscape ecology of the country is currently being affected. Therefore, in this study, a system dynamic model with multi-dimensional nonlinear dynamic prediction function that considers industrial growth and landscape ecology is developed and verified to allow for more sustainable development. Firstly, relationships between industrial development and landscape ecology in China are examined, and five subsystems are then established: industry, population, urban economy, environment and landscape ecology. The main influencing factors are then examined for each subsystem to establish flow charts connecting those factors. Consequently, by connecting the subsystems, an overall industry growth and landscape ecology model is established. Using actual data and landscape index calculated based on GIS of the Ha-Da-Qi industrial corridor, a typical industrial corridor in China, over the period 2005-2009, the model is validated in terms of historical behaviour, logical structure and future prediction, where for 84.8% of the factors, the error rate of the model is less than 5%, the mean error rate of all factors is 2.96% and the error of the simulation test for the landscape ecology subsystem is less than 2%. Moreover, a model application has been made to consider the changes in landscape indices under four industrial development modes, and the optimal industrial growth plan has been examined for landscape ecological protection through the simulation prediction results over 2015-2020. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  5. A multilevel nonlinear mixed-effects approach to model growth in pigs

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Strathe, Anders Bjerring; Danfær, Allan Christian; Sørensen, H.

    2010-01-01

    Growth functions have been used to predict market weight of pigs and maximize return over feed costs. This study was undertaken to compare 4 growth functions and methods of analyzing data, particularly one that considers nonlinear repeated measures. Data were collected from an experiment with 40...... pigs maintained from birth to maturity and their BW measured weekly or every 2 wk up to 1,007 d. Gompertz, logistic, Bridges, and Lopez functions were fitted to the data and compared using information criteria. For each function, a multilevel nonlinear mixed effects model was employed because....... Furthermore, studies should consider adding continuous autoregressive process when analyzing nonlinear mixed models with repeated measures....

  6. Gastrointestinal Spatiotemporal mRNA Expression of Ghrelin vs Growth Hormone Receptor and New Growth Yield Machine Learning Model Based on Perturbation Theory.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ran, Tao; Liu, Yong; Li, Hengzhi; Tang, Shaoxun; He, Zhixiong; Munteanu, Cristian R; González-Díaz, Humberto; Tan, Zhiliang; Zhou, Chuanshe

    2016-07-27

    The management of ruminant growth yield has economic importance. The current work presents a study of the spatiotemporal dynamic expression of Ghrelin and GHR at mRNA levels throughout the gastrointestinal tract (GIT) of kid goats under housing and grazing systems. The experiments show that the feeding system and age affected the expression of either Ghrelin or GHR with different mechanisms. Furthermore, the experimental data are used to build new Machine Learning models based on the Perturbation Theory, which can predict the effects of perturbations of Ghrelin and GHR mRNA expression on the growth yield. The models consider eight longitudinal GIT segments (rumen, abomasum, duodenum, jejunum, ileum, cecum, colon and rectum), seven time points (0, 7, 14, 28, 42, 56 and 70 d) and two feeding systems (Supplemental and Grazing feeding) as perturbations from the expected values of the growth yield. The best regression model was obtained using Random Forest, with the coefficient of determination R(2) of 0.781 for the test subset. The current results indicate that the non-linear regression model can accurately predict the growth yield and the key nodes during gastrointestinal development, which is helpful to optimize the feeding management strategies in ruminant production system.

  7. Innovation, Decentralization, and Planning in a Multi-Region Model of Schumpeterian Economic Growth

    OpenAIRE

    Batabyal, Amit; Nijkamp, Peter

    2014-01-01

    We study innovation and the resulting Schumpeterian economic growth that this innovation gives rise to in a model with N heterogeneous regions. For each region i where i=1,...,N, our analysis leads to five findings. First, we define the balanced growth path (BGP) allocations and the equilibrium of interest. Second, we stipulate the form of the innovation possibilities frontier that is consistent with balanced economic growth. Third, we derive the growth rate of the ith region in the decentral...

  8. Global warming and coral reefs: modelling the effect of temperature on Acropora palmata colony growth.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crabbe, M James C

    2007-08-01

    Data on colony growth of the branching coral Acropora palmata from fringing reefs off Discovery Bay on the north coast of Jamaica have been obtained over the period 2002-2007 using underwater photography and image analysis by both SCUBA and remotely using an ROV incorporating twin lasers. Growth modelling shows that while logarithmic growth is an approximate model for growth, a 3:3 rational polynomial function provides a significantly better fit to growth data for this coral species. Over the period 2002-2007, involving several cycles of sea surface temperature (SST) change, the rate of growth of A. palmata was largely proportional to rate of change of SST, with R(2)=0.935. These results have implications for the influence of global warming and climate change on coral reef ecosystems.

  9. A two-phase kinetic model for fungal growth in solid-state cultivation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hamidi-Esfahani, Z.; Hejazi, P.; Abbas Shojaosadati, S.; Hoogschagen, M.J.; Vasheghani-Farahani, E.; Rinzema, A.

    2007-01-01

    A new two-phase kinetic model including exponential and logistic models was applied to simulate the growth rate of fungi at various temperatures. The model parameters, expressed as a function of temperature, were determined from the oxygen consumption rate of Aspergillus niger during cultivation on

  10. A deterministic model for the growth of non-conducting electrical tree structures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dodd, S J

    2003-01-01

    Electrical treeing is of interest to the electrical generation, transmission and distribution industries as it is one of the causes of insulation failure in electrical machines, switchgear and transformer bushings. In this paper a deterministic electrical tree growth model is described. The model is based on electrostatics and local electron avalanches to model partial discharge activity within the growing tree structure. Damage to the resin surrounding the tree structure is dependent on the local electrostatic energy dissipation by partial discharges within the tree structure and weighted by the magnitudes of the local electric fields in the resin surrounding the tree structure. The model is successful in simulating the formation of branched structures without the need of a random variable, a requirement of previous stochastic models. Instability in the spatial development of partial discharges within the tree structure takes the role of the stochastic element as used in previous models to produce branched tree structures. The simulated electrical trees conform to the experimentally observed behaviour; tree length versus time and electrical tree growth rate as a function of applied voltage for non-conducting electrical trees. The phase synchronous partial discharge activity and the spatial distribution of emitted light from the tree structure are also in agreement with experimental data for non-conducting trees as grown in a flexible epoxy resin and in polyethylene. The fact that similar tree growth behaviour is found using pure amorphous (epoxy resin) and semicrystalline (polyethylene) materials demonstrate that neither annealed or quenched noise, representing material inhomogeneity, is required for the formation of irregular branched structures (electrical trees). Instead, as shown in this paper, branched growth can occur due to the instability of individual discharges within the tree structure

  11. JOB DISCRIMINATION AGAINST WOMEN AND ENDOGENOUS POPULATION CHANGE IN A GENERALIZED SOLOW GROWTH MODEL

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wei-Bin ZHANG

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available This study examines economic growth and population change with discrimination against women in the labor market within the analytical framework of Solow’s neoclassical growth model. The study models dynamic interactions between wealth accumulation, time distribution between work, children caring, and leisure, population change with endogenous birth and mortality rates with gender discrimination. The production technology and markets are built on Solow’s neoclassical growth model. The basic mechanisms for population changes in the Barro-Becker fertility choice model and the Haavelmo population model are integrated to model the population change. This study also takes account of discrimination against woman in the labor market. We synthesize these dynamic forces in a compact framework by applying Zhang’s utility function. The model properties are studied by simulation. We find equilibrium points and illustrate motion of the dynamic system. We also examine the effects of changes in the discrimination against woman, the propensity to save, woman’s propensity to pursue leisure activities, the propensity to have children, woman’s human capital and man’s emotional involvement in children caring.

  12. Using Bayesian statistics for modeling PTSD through Latent Growth Mixture Modeling : implementation and discussion

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Depaoli, Sarah; van de Schoot, Rens; van Loey, Nancy; Sijbrandij, Marit

    2015-01-01

    BACKGROUND: After traumatic events, such as disaster, war trauma, and injuries including burns (which is the focus here), the risk to develop posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) is approximately 10% (Breslau & Davis, 1992). Latent Growth Mixture Modeling can be used to classify individuals into

  13. Stochastic models for tumoral growth

    OpenAIRE

    Escudero, Carlos

    2006-01-01

    Strong experimental evidence has indicated that tumor growth belongs to the molecular beam epitaxy universality class. This type of growth is characterized by the constraint of cell proliferation to the tumor border, and surface diffusion of cells at the growing edge. Tumor growth is thus conceived as a competition for space between the tumor and the host, and cell diffusion at the tumor border is an optimal strategy adopted for minimizing the pressure and helping tumor development. Two stoch...

  14. Multiphase modelling of vascular tumour growth in two spatial dimensions

    KAUST Repository

    Hubbard, M.E.

    2013-01-01

    In this paper we present a continuum mathematical model of vascular tumour growth which is based on a multiphase framework in which the tissue is decomposed into four distinct phases and the principles of conservation of mass and momentum are applied to the normal/healthy cells, tumour cells, blood vessels and extracellular material. The inclusion of a diffusible nutrient, supplied by the blood vessels, allows the vasculature to have a nonlocal influence on the other phases. Two-dimensional computational simulations are carried out on unstructured, triangular meshes to allow a natural treatment of irregular geometries, and the tumour boundary is captured as a diffuse interface on this mesh, thereby obviating the need to explicitly track the (potentially highly irregular and ill-defined) tumour boundary. A hybrid finite volume/finite element algorithm is used to discretise the continuum model: the application of a conservative, upwind, finite volume scheme to the hyperbolic mass balance equations and a finite element scheme with a stable element pair to the generalised Stokes equations derived from momentum balance, leads to a robust algorithm which does not use any form of artificial stabilisation. The use of a matrix-free Newton iteration with a finite element scheme for the nutrient reaction-diffusion equations allows full nonlinearity in the source terms of the mathematical model.Numerical simulations reveal that this four-phase model reproduces the characteristic pattern of tumour growth in which a necrotic core forms behind an expanding rim of well-vascularised proliferating tumour cells. The simulations consistently predict linear tumour growth rates. The dependence of both the speed with which the tumour grows and the irregularity of the invading tumour front on the model parameters is investigated. © 2012 Elsevier Ltd.

  15. Pollution and economic growth in a model of overlapping generations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fisher, Eric O`N. [Department of Economics, The Ohio State University, Columbus, OH (United States); Van Marrewijk, Charles [Department of Economics, Erasmus University, Rotterdam (Netherlands)

    1994-01-22

    We analyze a model of overlapping generations in which clean air, a pure public consumption good, is used as a private input into production. Although production exhibits constant returns to scale, endogenous growth can occur because the economy has tWO sectors. In a laissez-faire equilibrium, there is no market for pollution rights, and firms appropriate clean air in an arbitrary manner. Growth occurs only if the marginal propensity to save is high enough and the asymptotic share of pollution in the investment sector is zero. Firms generate quasi-rents that are the value of pollution rights. These quasi-rents crowd out investment and slow economic growth. A laissez- faire equilibrium may not support Pareto optimal allocations, but a Pigouvian tax with lump-sum distribution of the resulting revenues does. Hence, a pollution lax yields a double dividend because it can increase both the static efficiency of the economy and its growth rate. 1 fig., 20 refs.

  16. Pollution and economic growth in a model of overlapping generations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fisher, Eric O'N.; Van Marrewijk, Charles

    1994-01-01

    We analyze a model of overlapping generations in which clean air, a pure public consumption good, is used as a private input into production. Although production exhibits constant returns to scale, endogenous growth can occur because the economy has tWO sectors. In a laissez-faire equilibrium, there is no market for pollution rights, and firms appropriate clean air in an arbitrary manner. Growth occurs only if the marginal propensity to save is high enough and the asymptotic share of pollution in the investment sector is zero. Firms generate quasi-rents that are the value of pollution rights. These quasi-rents crowd out investment and slow economic growth. A laissez- faire equilibrium may not support Pareto optimal allocations, but a Pigouvian tax with lump-sum distribution of the resulting revenues does. Hence, a pollution lax yields a double dividend because it can increase both the static efficiency of the economy and its growth rate. 1 fig., 20 refs

  17. Development of a model for on-line control of crystal growth by the AHP method

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gonik, M. A.; Lomokhova, A. V.; Gonik, M. M.; Kuliev, A. T.; Smirnov, A. D.

    2007-05-01

    The possibility to apply a simplified 2D model for heat transfer calculations in crystal growth by the axial heat close to phase interface (AHP) method is discussed in this paper. A comparison with global heat transfer calculations with the CGSim software was performed to confirm the accuracy of this model. The simplified model was shown to provide adequate results for the shape of the melt-crystal interface and temperature field in an opaque (Ge) and a transparent crystal (CsI:Tl). The model proposed is used for identification of the growth setup as a control object, for synthesis of a digital controller (PID controller at the present stage) and, finally, in on-line simulations of crystal growth control.

  18. Growth model of the pineapple guava fruit as a function of thermal time and altitude

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alfonso Parra-Coronado

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available The growth of the pineapple guava fruit is primarily stimulated by temperature but is also influenced by other climactic factors, such as altitude. The goal of this study was to develop a growth model for the pineapple guava fruit as a function of thermal time (GDD, growing-degree day and altitude (H of the production area. Twenty trees per farm were marked in two sites in the Cundinamarca department (Colombia during the 2012 and 2014 seasons. The measurements were performed every seven days after day 96 and 99 post-anthesis until harvest in the sites of Tenjo (2,580 m.a.s.l. and San Francisco de Sales (1,800 m.a.s.l., respectively. A growth model was produced for weight as a function of fruit length and diameter as well as for the weight of the fruit as a function of GDD and H, with this last measure adjusted to a sigmoidal logistic growth model. The parameters for the regression analysis showed that the models satisfactorily predicted fruit growth for both of the sites, with a high determination coefficient. The cross-validation showed good statistical fit between the predicted and observed models; the intercept was not significantly different than zero, and the slope was statistically equal to one.

  19. 78 FR 15010 - Proposed Information Collection Request; Comment Request: Information Requirements for...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-03-08

    ... Abstract: EPA is required under Section 183(e) of the Clean Air Act to regulate Volatile Organic Compound... marine engines, locomotives, non-road recreational vehicles, and many non-road compression-ignition and...

  20. Use of mathematical models in the study of bodily growth in GIFT strain Nile tilapia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alda Lúcia de Lima Amancio

    Full Text Available The objective of this study was to evaluate the accuracy of five mathematical models (Gompertz, Logistic, Linear Hyperbolic, Quadratic and Quadratic Logarithmic to describe the growth curve of GIFT strain Nile tilapia, Oreochromis niloticus, and to characterize the growth trajectory of body parts. To do this, 1,000 fingerlings, with an initial weight of 2.4 g were placed into 20 brick tanks of 2 m³ each, at a density of 25 fish m-3, for 180 days. The animals were fed daily, using the protein levels and number of meals appropriate to each stage. Every two weeks 20 fish were randomly sampled, submitted to a fasting period of 48 h and then slaughtered by thermal shock, in order to determine the weight of the whole fish, the skin without scales, skinless fillets, heart, liver, gills and gastrointestinal tract. The Gompertz and Logistic models presented the best fit to the growth curve for live weight, fillet and skin, however the Logistic model underestimated the asymptotic weights. Therefore, to describe the growth curve in GIFT strain Nile tilapia, the Gompertz model is suggested. According to the parameters estimated by the Gompertz model, Nile tilapia reach the age for maximum growth of the fillet and skin before that of body weight. Among the organs studied, growth of the gastrointestinal tract and gills takes place earlier than that of the heart and liver.

  1. The impact of the British model on economic growth

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Simon György Jr.

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available The paper is searching for an answer to the question how the British model affected economic development in its mother country, the United Kingdom. The statistical analysis, models of mathematical economics and econometric investigation make it probable to conclude that there was a substantial difference in success between the Thatcherite and the Blairite economic policies; the latter proved more effective. It is particularly remarkable that the Blairite model, connecting privatization with a successful employment policy, reduced unemployment and social sensitivity, has not only speeded up economic growth but also improved economic equilibrium, curtailing, among others, the budget deficit.

  2. Otolith reading and multi-model inference for improved estimation of age and growth in the gilthead seabream Sparus aurata (L.)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mercier, Lény; Panfili, Jacques; Paillon, Christelle; N'diaye, Awa; Mouillot, David; Darnaude, Audrey M.

    2011-05-01

    Accurate knowledge of fish age and growth is crucial for species conservation and management of exploited marine stocks. In exploited species, age estimation based on otolith reading is routinely used for building growth curves that are used to implement fishery management models. However, the universal fit of the von Bertalanffy growth function (VBGF) on data from commercial landings can lead to uncertainty in growth parameter inference, preventing accurate comparison of growth-based history traits between fish populations. In the present paper, we used a comprehensive annual sample of wild gilthead seabream ( Sparus aurata L.) in the Gulf of Lions (France, NW Mediterranean) to test a methodology improving growth modelling for exploited fish populations. After validating the timing for otolith annual increment formation for all life stages, a comprehensive set of growth models (including VBGF) were fitted to the obtained age-length data, used as a whole or sub-divided between group 0 individuals and those coming from commercial landings (ages 1-6). Comparisons in growth model accuracy based on Akaike Information Criterion allowed assessment of the best model for each dataset and, when no model correctly fitted the data, a multi-model inference (MMI) based on model averaging was carried out. The results provided evidence that growth parameters inferred with VBGF must be used with high caution. Hence, VBGF turned to be among the less accurate for growth prediction irrespective of the dataset and its fit to the whole population, the juvenile or the adult datasets provided different growth parameters. The best models for growth prediction were the Tanaka model, for group 0 juveniles, and the MMI, for the older fish, confirming that growth differs substantially between juveniles and adults. All asymptotic models failed to correctly describe the growth of adult S. aurata, probably because of the poor representation of old individuals in the dataset. Multi-model

  3. To Save or to Consume: Linking Growth Theory with the Keynesian Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kwok, Yun-kwong

    2007-01-01

    In the neoclassical growth theory, higher saving rate gives rise to higher output per capita. However, in the Keynesian model, higher saving rate causes lower consumption, which may lead to a recession. Students may ask, "Should we save or should we consume?" In most of the macroeconomics textbooks, economic growth and Keynesian economics are in…

  4. Mechanisms of plasma-assisted catalyzed growth of carbon nanofibres: a theoretical modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gupta, R.; Sharma, S. C.; Sharma, R.

    2017-02-01

    A theoretical model is developed to study the nucleation and catalytic growth of carbon nanofibers (CNFs) in a plasma environment. The model includes the charging of CNFs, the kinetics of the plasma species (neutrals, ions and electrons), plasma pretreatment of the catalyst film, and various processes unique to a plasma-exposed catalyst surface such as adsorption of neutrals, thermal dissociation of neutrals, ion induced dissociation, interaction between neutral species, stress exerted by the growing graphene layers and the growth of CNFs. Numerical calculations are carried out for typical glow discharge plasma parameters. It is found that the growth rate of CNFs decreases with the catalyst nanoparticle size. In addition, the effect of hydrogen on the catalyst nanoparticle size, CNF tip diameter, CNF growth rate, and the tilt angle of the graphene layers to the fiber axis are investigated. Moreover, it is also found that the length of CNFs increases with hydrocarbon number density. Our theoretical findings are in good agreement with experimental observations and can be extended to enhance the field emission characteristics of CNFs.

  5. Modeling Growth and Yield of Schizolobium amazonicum under Different Spacings

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gilson Fernandes da Silva

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available This study aimed to present an approach to model the growth and yield of the species Schizolobium amazonicum (Paricá based on a study of different spacings located in Pará, Brazil. Whole-stand models were employed, and two modeling strategies (Strategies A and B were tested. Moreover, the following three scenarios were evaluated to assess the accuracy of the model in estimating total and commercial volumes at five years of age: complete absence of data (S1; available information about the variables basal area, site index, dominant height, and number of trees at two years of age (S2; and this information available at five years of age (S3. The results indicated that the 3 × 2 spacing has a higher mortality rate than normal, and, in general, greater spacing corresponds to larger diameter and average height and smaller basal area and volume per hectare. In estimating the total and commercial volumes for the three scenarios tested, Strategy B seems to be the most appropriate method to estimate the growth and yield of Paricá plantations in the study region, particularly because Strategy A showed a significant bias in its estimates.

  6. A formulation of multidimensional growth models for the assessment and forecast of technology attributes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Danner, Travis W.

    Developing technology systems requires all manner of investment---engineering talent, prototypes, test facilities, and more. Even for simple design problems the investment can be substantial; for complex technology systems, the development costs can be staggering. The profitability of a corporation in a technology-driven industry is crucially dependent on maximizing the effectiveness of research and development investment. Decision-makers charged with allocation of this investment are forced to choose between the further evolution of existing technologies and the pursuit of revolutionary technologies. At risk on the one hand is excessive investment in an evolutionary technology which has only limited availability for further improvement. On the other hand, the pursuit of a revolutionary technology may mean abandoning momentum and the potential for substantial evolutionary improvement resulting from the years of accumulated knowledge. The informed answer to this question, evolutionary or revolutionary, requires knowledge of the expected rate of improvement and the potential a technology offers for further improvement. This research is dedicated to formulating the assessment and forecasting tools necessary to acquire this knowledge. The same physical laws and principles that enable the development and improvement of specific technologies also limit the ultimate capability of those technologies. Researchers have long used this concept as the foundation for modeling technological advancement through extrapolation by analogy to biological growth models. These models are employed to depict technology development as it asymptotically approaches limits established by the fundamental principles on which the technological approach is based. This has proven an effective and accurate approach to modeling and forecasting simple single-attribute technologies. With increased system complexity and the introduction of multiple system objectives, however, the usefulness of this

  7. Fractal growth of tumors and other cellular populations: Linking the mechanistic to the phenomenological modeling and vice versa

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    D'Onofrio, Alberto

    2009-01-01

    In this paper we study and extend the mechanistic mean field theory of growth of cellular populations proposed by Mombach et al. [Mombach JCM, Lemke N, Bodmann BEJ, Idiart MAP. A mean-field theory of cellular growth. Europhys Lett 2002;59:923-928] (MLBI model), and we demonstrate that the original model and our generalizations lead to inferences of biological interest. In the first part of this paper, we show that the model in study is widely general since it admits, as particular cases, the main phenomenological models of cellular growth. In the second part of this work, we generalize the MLBI model to a wider family of models by allowing the cells to have a generic unspecified biologically plausible interaction. Then, we derive a relationship between this generic microscopic interaction function and the growth rate of the corresponding macroscopic model. Finally, we propose to use this relationship in order to help the investigation of the biological plausibility of phenomenological models of cancer growth.

  8. Modelling of the acid base properties of two thermophilic bacteria at different growth times

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heinrich, Hannah T. M.; Bremer, Phil J.; McQuillan, A. James; Daughney, Christopher J.

    2008-09-01

    Acid-base titrations and electrophoretic mobility measurements were conducted on the thermophilic bacteria Anoxybacillus flavithermus and Geobacillus stearothermophilus at two different growth times corresponding to exponential and stationary/death phase. The data showed significant differences between the two investigated growth times for both bacterial species. In stationary/death phase samples, cells were disrupted and their buffering capacity was lower than that of exponential phase cells. For G. stearothermophilus the electrophoretic mobility profiles changed dramatically. Chemical equilibrium models were developed to simultaneously describe the data from the titrations and the electrophoretic mobility measurements. A simple approach was developed to determine confidence intervals for the overall variance between the model and the experimental data, in order to identify statistically significant changes in model fit and thereby select the simplest model that was able to adequately describe each data set. Exponential phase cells of the investigated thermophiles had a higher total site concentration than the average found for mesophilic bacteria (based on a previously published generalised model for the acid-base behaviour of mesophiles), whereas the opposite was true for cells in stationary/death phase. The results of this study indicate that growth phase is an important parameter that can affect ion binding by bacteria, that growth phase should be considered when developing or employing chemical models for bacteria-bearing systems.

  9. Hybrid cellular automaton modeling of nutrient modulated cell growth in tissue engineering constructs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chung, C A; Lin, Tze-Hung; Chen, Shih-Di; Huang, Hsing-I

    2010-01-21

    Mathematic models help interpret experimental results and accelerate tissue engineering developments. We develop in this paper a hybrid cellular automata model that combines the differential nutrient transport equation to investigate the nutrient limited cell construct development for cartilage tissue engineering. Individual cell behaviors of migration, contact inhibition and cell collision, coupled with the cell proliferation regulated by oxygen concentration were carefully studied. Simplified two-dimensional simulations were performed. Using this model, we investigated the influence of cell migration speed on the overall cell growth within in vitro cell scaffolds. It was found that intense cell motility can enhance initial cell growth rates. However, since cell growth is also significantly modulated by the nutrient contents, intense cell motility with conventional uniform cell seeding method may lead to declined cell growth in the final time because concentrated cell population has been growing around the scaffold periphery to block the nutrient transport from outside culture media. Therefore, homogeneous cell seeding may not be a good way of gaining large and uniform cell densities for the final results. We then compared cell growth in scaffolds with various seeding modes, and proposed a seeding mode with cells initially residing in the middle area of the scaffold that may efficiently reduce the nutrient blockage and result in a better cell amount and uniform cell distribution for tissue engineering construct developments.

  10. Comparison of Two Mechanistic Microbial Growth Models to Estimate Shelf Life of Perishable Food Package under Dynamic Temperature Conditions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dong Sun Lee

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Two mechanistic microbial growth models (Huang’s model and model of Baranyi and Roberts given in differential and integrated equation forms were compared in predicting the microbial growth and shelf life under dynamic temperature storage and distribution conditions. Literatures consistently reporting the microbial growth data under constant and changing temperature conditions were selected to obtain the primary model parameters, set up the secondary models, and apply them to predict the microbial growth and shelf life under fluctuating temperatures. When evaluated by general estimation behavior, bias factor, accuracy factor, and root-mean-square error, Huang’s model was comparable to Baranyi and Roberts’ model in the capability to estimate microbial growth under dynamic temperature conditions. Its simple form of single differential equation incorporating directly the growth rate and lag time may work as an advantage to be used in online shelf life estimation by using the electronic device.

  11. Trade Liberalisation, Growth and Poverty in Senegal: a Dynamic Microsimulation CGE Model Analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Nabil Annabi; Fatou Cissé; John Cockburn; Bernard Decaluwé

    2005-01-01

    Much current debate focuses on the role of growth in alleviating poverty. However, the majority of computable general equilibrium (CGE) models used in poverty and inequality analysis are static in nature. The inability of this kind of model to account for growth (accumulation) effects makes them inadequate for long run analysis of the poverty and inequality impacts of economic policies. They exclude accumulation effects and do not allow the study of the transition path of the economy where sh...

  12. The synergy of modeling and novel experiments for melt crystal growth research

    Science.gov (United States)

    Derby, Jeffrey J.

    2018-05-01

    Computational modeling and novel experiments, when performed together, can enable the identification of new, fundamental mechanisms important for the growth of bulk crystals from the melt. In this paper, we present a compelling example of this synergy via the discovery of previously unascertained physical mechanisms that govern the engulfment of silicon carbide particles during the growth of crystalline silicon.

  13. Effect of food microstructure on growth dynamics of Listeria monocytogenes in fish-based model systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Verheyen, Davy; Bolívar, Araceli; Pérez-Rodríguez, Fernando; Baka, Maria; Skåra, Torstein; Van Impe, Jan F

    2018-06-01

    Traditionally, predictive growth models for food pathogens are developed based on experiments in broth media, resulting in models which do not incorporate the influence of food microstructure. The use of model systems with various microstructures is a promising concept to get more insight into the influence of food microstructure on microbial dynamics. By means of minimal variation of compositional and physicochemical factors, these model systems can be used to study the isolated effect of certain microstructural aspects on microbial growth, survival and inactivation. In this study, the isolated effect on microbial growth dynamics of Listeria monocytogenes of two food microstructural aspects and one aspect influenced by food microstructure were investigated, i.e., the nature of the food matrix, the presence of fat droplets, and microorganism growth morphology, respectively. To this extent, fish-based model systems with various microstructures were used, i.e., a liquid, a second more viscous liquid system containing xanthan gum, an emulsion, an aqueous gel, and a gelled emulsion. Growth experiments were conducted at 4 and 10 °C, both using homogeneous and surface inoculation (only for the gelled systems). Results regarding the influence of the growth morphology indicated that the lag phase of planktonic cells in the liquid system was similar to the lag phase of submerged colonies in the xanthan system. The lag phase of submerged colonies in each gelled system was considerably longer than the lag phase of surface colonies on these respective systems. The maximum specific growth rate of planktonic cells in the liquid system was significantly lower than for submerged colonies in the xanthan system at 10 °C, while no significant differences were observed at 4 °C. The maximum cell density was higher for submerged colonies than for surface colonies. The nature of the food matrix only exerted an influence on the maximum specific growth rate, which was

  14. 77 FR 45532 - Approval and Promulgation of Implementation Plans; Michigan; Detroit-Ann Arbor Nonattainment Area...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-08-01

    ... , volatile organic compounds (VOCs), sulfur dioxide (SO 2 ), and modeled NH 3 included in MDEQ's submittal... sources, non-EGU point sources, area sources, non-road mobile sources, marine-airport-rail (MAR) sources... 2002 model data for commercial marine vessels, locomotives and Clean Air Market Division, etc...

  15. Study on Batch Culture Growth Model for Lactococcus lactis IO-1

    OpenAIRE

    Ishizaki, Ayaaki; Ohta, Tomomi; Kobayashi, Genta; 石崎, 文彬; 太田, 智美; 小林, 元太

    1991-01-01

    L-lactate fermentation employing Lactncoccus lactis IO-1 demonstrated a typical end product inhibition. By numerical analysis of fermentation results of the batch culture of this microorganism, the specific rates for cell growth, substrate consumption and product formation were clearly expressed by the end product inhibition formulae. All constants for those formulae were determined by the fermentation results. A mathematical model for batch culture growth of this microorganism in which the n...

  16. Evaluating predictive models for solar energy growth in the US states and identifying the key drivers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chakraborty, Joheen; Banerji, Sugata

    2018-03-01

    Driven by a desire to control climate change and reduce the dependence on fossil fuels, governments around the world are increasing the adoption of renewable energy sources. However, among the US states, we observe a wide disparity in renewable penetration. In this study, we have identified and cleaned over a dozen datasets representing solar energy penetration in each US state, and the potentially relevant socioeconomic and other factors that may be driving the growth in solar. We have applied a number of predictive modeling approaches - including machine learning and regression - on these datasets over a 17-year period and evaluated the relative performance of the models. Our goals were: (1) identify the most important factors that are driving the growth in solar, (2) choose the most effective predictive modeling technique for solar growth, and (3) develop a model for predicting next year’s solar growth using this year’s data. We obtained very promising results with random forests (about 90% efficacy) and varying degrees of success with support vector machines and regression techniques (linear, polynomial, ridge). We also identified states with solar growth slower than expected and representing a potential for stronger growth in future.

  17. Effects of reaction-kinetic parameters on modeling reaction pathways in GaN MOVPE growth

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Hong; Zuo, Ran; Zhang, Guoyi

    2017-11-01

    In the modeling of the reaction-transport process in GaN MOVPE growth, the selections of kinetic parameters (activation energy Ea and pre-exponential factor A) for gas reactions are quite uncertain, which cause uncertainties in both gas reaction path and growth rate. In this study, numerical modeling of the reaction-transport process for GaN MOVPE growth in a vertical rotating disk reactor is conducted with varying kinetic parameters for main reaction paths. By comparisons of the molar concentrations of major Ga-containing species and the growth rates, the effects of kinetic parameters on gas reaction paths are determined. The results show that, depending on the values of the kinetic parameters, the gas reaction path may be dominated either by adduct/amide formation path, or by TMG pyrolysis path, or by both. Although the reaction path varies with different kinetic parameters, the predicted growth rates change only slightly because the total transport rate of Ga-containing species to the substrate changes slightly with reaction paths. This explains why previous authors using different chemical models predicted growth rates close to the experiment values. By varying the pre-exponential factor for the amide trimerization, it is found that the more trimers are formed, the lower the growth rates are than the experimental value, which indicates that trimers are poor growth precursors, because of thermal diffusion effect caused by high temperature gradient. The effective order for the contribution of major species to growth rate is found as: pyrolysis species > amides > trimers. The study also shows that radical reactions have little effect on gas reaction path because of the generation and depletion of H radicals in the chain reactions when NH2 is considered as the end species.

  18. Individualism in plant populations: using stochastic differential equations to model individual neighbourhood-dependent plant growth.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lv, Qiming; Schneider, Manuel K; Pitchford, Jonathan W

    2008-08-01

    We study individual plant growth and size hierarchy formation in an experimental population of Arabidopsis thaliana, within an integrated analysis that explicitly accounts for size-dependent growth, size- and space-dependent competition, and environmental stochasticity. It is shown that a Gompertz-type stochastic differential equation (SDE) model, involving asymmetric competition kernels and a stochastic term which decreases with the logarithm of plant weight, efficiently describes individual plant growth, competition, and variability in the studied population. The model is evaluated within a Bayesian framework and compared to its deterministic counterpart, and to several simplified stochastic models, using distributional validation. We show that stochasticity is an important determinant of size hierarchy and that SDE models outperform the deterministic model if and only if structural components of competition (asymmetry; size- and space-dependence) are accounted for. Implications of these results are discussed in the context of plant ecology and in more general modelling situations.

  19. Modeling of thin films growth processes in the early stage for atoms with covalent bonds

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tupik, V A; Margolin, V I; Su, Chu Trong

    2017-01-01

    Computer simulation for obtaining thin film’s growth process at an early stage with the proposed model of atoms with isotropic and anisotropic interactions been considered. Carrying out the procedure for analyzing the problem on the basis of the program being implemented, computer simulation of thin film growth processes has been carried out on several examples. The results of computer simulation of the growth process of thin film on a given substrate and an aggregate in a vacuum condition are shown. Some characteristic distributions of the obtained structure have been carried out to evaluate the proposed adequate model and to reflect the high complexity of thin films growth process. (paper)

  20. Numerical Simulation of a Tumor Growth Dynamics Model Using Particle Swarm Optimization.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Zhijun; Wang, Qing

    Tumor cell growth models involve high-dimensional parameter spaces that require computationally tractable methods to solve. To address a proposed tumor growth dynamics mathematical model, an instance of the particle swarm optimization method was implemented to speed up the search process in the multi-dimensional parameter space to find optimal parameter values that fit experimental data from mice cancel cells. The fitness function, which measures the difference between calculated results and experimental data, was minimized in the numerical simulation process. The results and search efficiency of the particle swarm optimization method were compared to those from other evolutional methods such as genetic algorithms.

  1. SU-E-T-751: Three-Component Kinetic Model of Tumor Growth and Radiation Response for Stereotactic Radiosurgery

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Watanabe, Y; Dahlman, E; Leder, K; Hui, S [University of Minnesota, Minneapolis, MN (United States)

    2015-06-15

    Purpose: To develop and study a kinetic model of tumor growth and its response to stereotactic radiosurgery (SRS) by assuming that the cells in irradiated tumor volume were made of three types. Methods: A set of ordinary differential equations (ODEs) were derived for three types of cells and a tumor growth rate. It is assumed that the cells were composed of actively proliferating cells, lethally damaged-dividing cells, and non-dividing cells. We modeled the tumor volume growth with a time-dependent growth rate to simulate the saturation of growth. After SRS, the proliferating cells were permanently damaged and converted to the lethally damaged cells. The amount of damaged cells were estimated by the LQ-model. The damaged cells gradually stopped dividing/proliferating and died with a constant rate. The dead cells were cleared from their original location with a constant rate. The total tumor volume was the sum of the three components. The ODEs were numerically solved with appropriate initial conditions for a given dosage. The proposed model was used to model an animal experiment, for which the temporal change of a rhabdomyosarcoma tumor volume grown in a rat was measured with time resolution sufficient to test the model. Results: To fit the model to the experimental data, the following characteristics were needed with the model parameters. The α-value in the LQ-model was smaller than the commonly used value; furthermore, it decreased with increasing dose. At the same time, the tumor growth rate after SRS had to increase. Conclusions: The new 3-component model of tumor could simulate the experimental data very well. The current study suggested that the radiation sensitivity and the growth rate of the proliferating tumor cells may change after irradiation and it depended on the dosage used for SRS. These preliminary observations must be confirmed by future animal experiments.

  2. Phase Characterization of Cucumber Growth: A Chemical Gel Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bo Li

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Cucumber grows with complex phenomena by changing its volume and shape, which is not fully investigated and challenges agriculture and food safety industry. In order to understand the mechanism and to characterize the growth process, the cucumber is modeled as a hydrogel in swelling and its development is studied in both preharvest and postharvest stages. Based on thermodynamics, constitutive equations, incorporating biological quantities, are established. The growth behavior of cucumber follows the classic theory of continuous or discontinuous phase transition. The mechanism of bulged tail in cucumber is interpreted by phase coexistence and characterized by critical conditions. Conclusions are given for advances in food engineering and novel fabrication techniques in mechanical biology.

  3. Modelling the interaction between flooding events and economic growth

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grames, Johanna; Fürnkranz-Prskawetz, Alexia; Grass, Dieter; Viglione, Alberto; Blöschl, Günter

    2016-04-01

    Recently socio-hydrology models have been proposed to analyze the interplay of community risk-coping culture, flooding damage and economic growth. These models descriptively explain the feedbacks between socio-economic development and natural disasters such as floods. Complementary to these descriptive models, we develop a dynamic optimization model, where the inter-temporal decision of an economic agent interacts with the hydrological system. This interdisciplinary approach matches with the goals of Panta Rhei i.e. to understand feedbacks between hydrology and society. It enables new perspectives but also shows limitations of each discipline. Young scientists need mentors from various scientific backgrounds to learn their different research approaches and how to best combine them such that interdisciplinary scientific work is also accepted by different science communities. In our socio-hydrology model we apply a macro-economic decision framework to a long-term flood-scenario. We assume a standard macro-economic growth model where agents derive utility from consumption and output depends on physical capital that can be accumulated through investment. To this framework we add the occurrence of flooding events which will destroy part of the capital. We identify two specific periodic long term solutions and denote them rich and poor economies. Whereas rich economies can afford to invest in flood defense and therefore avoid flood damage and develop high living standards, poor economies prefer consumption instead of investing in flood defense capital and end up facing flood damages every time the water level rises. Nevertheless, they manage to sustain at least a low level of physical capital. We identify optimal investment strategies and compare simulations with more frequent and more intense high water level events.

  4. Urban Growth Modelling with Artificial Neural Network and Logistic Regression. Case Study: Sanandaj City, Iran

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    SASSAN MOHAMMADY

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Cities have shown remarkable growth due to attraction, economic, social and facilities centralization in the past few decades. Population and urban expansion especially in developing countries, led to lack of resources, land use change from appropriate agricultural land to urban land use and marginalization. Under these circumstances, land use activity is a major issue and challenge for town and country planners. Different approaches have been attempted in urban expansion modelling. Artificial Neural network (ANN models are among knowledge-based models which have been used for urban growth modelling. ANNs are powerful tools that use a machine learning approach to quantify and model complex behaviour and patterns. In this research, ANN and logistic regression have been employed for interpreting urban growth modelling. Our case study is Sanandaj city and we used Landsat TM and ETM+ imageries acquired at 2000 and 2006. The dataset used includes distance to main roads, distance to the residence region, elevation, slope, and distance to green space. Percent Area Match (PAM obtained from modelling of these changes with ANN is equal to 90.47% and the accuracy achieved for urban growth modelling with Logistic Regression (LR is equal to 88.91%. Percent Correct Match (PCM and Figure of Merit for ANN method were 91.33% and 59.07% and then for LR were 90.84% and 57.07%, respectively.

  5. Determining of migraine prognosis using latent growth mixture models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tasdelen, Bahar; Ozge, Aynur; Kaleagasi, Hakan; Erdogan, Semra; Mengi, Tufan

    2011-04-01

    This paper presents a retrospective study to classify patients into subtypes of the treatment according to baseline and longitudinally observed values considering heterogenity in migraine prognosis. In the classical prospective clinical studies, participants are classified with respect to baseline status and followed within a certain time period. However, latent growth mixture model is the most suitable method, which considers the population heterogenity and is not affected drop-outs if they are missing at random. Hence, we planned this comprehensive study to identify prognostic factors in migraine. The study data have been based on a 10-year computer-based follow-up data of Mersin University Headache Outpatient Department. The developmental trajectories within subgroups were described for the severity, frequency, and duration of headache separately and the probabilities of each subgroup were estimated by using latent growth mixture models. SAS PROC TRAJ procedures, semiparametric and group-based mixture modeling approach, were applied to define the developmental trajectories. While the three-group model for the severity (mild, moderate, severe) and frequency (low, medium, high) of headache appeared to be appropriate, the four-group model for the duration (low, medium, high, extremely high) was more suitable. The severity of headache increased in the patients with nausea, vomiting, photophobia and phonophobia. The frequency of headache was especially related with increasing age and unilateral pain. Nausea and photophobia were also related with headache duration. Nausea, vomiting and photophobia were the most significant factors to identify developmental trajectories. The remission time was not the same for the severity, frequency, and duration of headache.

  6. Repeated Microneedle Stimulation Induces Enhanced Hair Growth in a Murine Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Yoon Seob; Jeong, Kwan Ho; Kim, Jung Eun; Woo, Young Jun; Kim, Beom Joon; Kang, Hoon

    2016-10-01

    Microneedle is a method that creates transdermal microchannels across the stratum corneum barrier layer of skin. No previous study showed a therapeutic effect of microneedle itself on hair growth by wounding. The aim of this study is to investigate the effect of repeated microwound formed by microneedle on hair growth and hair growth-related genes in a murine model. A disk microneedle roller was applied to each group of mice five times a week for three weeks. First, to identify the optimal length and cycle, microneedles of lengths of 0.15 mm, 0.25 mm, 0.5 mm, and 1 mm and cycles of 3, 6, 10, and 13 cycles were applied. Second, the effect of hair growth and hair-growth-related genes such as Wnt3a, β-catenin, vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF), and Wnt10b was observed using optimized microneedle. Outcomes were observed using visual inspection, real-time polymerase chain reaction, and immunohistochemistry. We found that the optimal length and cycle of microneedle treatment on hair growth was 0.25 mm/10 cycles and 0.5 mm/10 cycles. Repeated microneedle stimulation promoted hair growth, and it also induced the enhanced expression of Wnt3a, β-catenin, VEGF, and Wnt10b. Our study provides evidence that microneedle stimulation can induce hair growth via activation of the Wnt/β-catenin pathway and VEGF. Combined with the drug delivery effect, we believe that microneedle stimulation could lead to new approaches for alopecia.

  7. Dynamic Models of Learning That Characterize Parent-Child Exchanges Predict Vocabulary Growth

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ober, David R.; Beekman, John A.

    2016-01-01

    Cumulative vocabulary models for infants and toddlers were developed from models of learning that predict trajectories associated with low, average, and high vocabulary growth rates (14 to 46 months). It was hypothesized that models derived from rates of learning mirror the type of exchanges provided to infants and toddlers by parents and…

  8. A Computable OLG Model for Gender and Growth Policy Analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Pierre-Richard Agénor

    2012-01-01

    This paper develops a computable Overlapping Generations (OLG) model for gender and growth policy analysis. The model accounts for human and physical capital accumulation (both public and private), intra- and inter-generational health persistence, fertility choices, and women's time allocation between market work, child rearing, and home production. Bargaining between spouses and gender bias, in the form of discrimination in the work place and mothers' time allocation between daughters and so...

  9. Development of a shortleaf pine individual-tree growth equation using non-linear mixed modeling techniques

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chakra B. Budhathoki; Thomas B. Lynch; James M. Guldin

    2010-01-01

    Nonlinear mixed-modeling methods were used to estimate parameters in an individual-tree basal area growth model for shortleaf pine (Pinus echinata Mill.). Shortleaf pine individual-tree growth data were available from over 200 permanently established 0.2-acre fixed-radius plots located in naturally-occurring even-aged shortleaf pine forests on the...

  10. Growth Modeling of Human Mandibles using Non-Euclidean Metrics

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hilger, Klaus Baggesen; Larsen, Rasmus; Wrobel, Mark

    2003-01-01

    From a set of 31 three-dimensional CT scans we model the temporal shape and size of the human mandible. Each anatomical structure is represented using 14851 semi-landmarks, and mapped into Procrustes tangent space. Exploratory subspace analyses are performed leading to linear models of mandible...... shape evolution in Procrustes space. The traditional variance analysis results in a one-dimensional growth model. However, working in a non-Euclidean metric results in a multimodal model with uncorrelated modes of biological variation. The applied non-Euclidean metric is governed by the correlation...... structure of the estimated noise in the data. The generative models are compared, and evaluated on the basis of a cross validation study. The new non-Euclidean analysis is completely data driven. It not only gives comparable results w.r.t. to previous studies of the mean modelling error, but in addition...

  11. A Fibrocontractive Mechanochemical Model of Dermal Wound Closure Incorporating Realistic Growth Factor Kinetics

    KAUST Repository

    Murphy, Kelly E.

    2012-01-13

    Fibroblasts and their activated phenotype, myofibroblasts, are the primary cell types involved in the contraction associated with dermal wound healing. Recent experimental evidence indicates that the transformation from fibroblasts to myofibroblasts involves two distinct processes: The cells are stimulated to change phenotype by the combined actions of transforming growth factor β (TGFβ) and mechanical tension. This observation indicates a need for a detailed exploration of the effect of the strong interactions between the mechanical changes and growth factors in dermal wound healing. We review the experimental findings in detail and develop a model of dermal wound healing that incorporates these phenomena. Our model includes the interactions between TGFβ and collagenase, providing a more biologically realistic form for the growth factor kinetics than those included in previous mechanochemical descriptions. A comparison is made between the model predictions and experimental data on human dermal wound healing and all the essential features are well matched. © 2012 Society for Mathematical Biology.

  12. A Fibrocontractive Mechanochemical Model of Dermal Wound Closure Incorporating Realistic Growth Factor Kinetics

    KAUST Repository

    Murphy, Kelly E.; Hall, Cameron L.; Maini, Philip K.; McCue, Scott W.; McElwain, D. L. Sean

    2012-01-01

    Fibroblasts and their activated phenotype, myofibroblasts, are the primary cell types involved in the contraction associated with dermal wound healing. Recent experimental evidence indicates that the transformation from fibroblasts to myofibroblasts involves two distinct processes: The cells are stimulated to change phenotype by the combined actions of transforming growth factor β (TGFβ) and mechanical tension. This observation indicates a need for a detailed exploration of the effect of the strong interactions between the mechanical changes and growth factors in dermal wound healing. We review the experimental findings in detail and develop a model of dermal wound healing that incorporates these phenomena. Our model includes the interactions between TGFβ and collagenase, providing a more biologically realistic form for the growth factor kinetics than those included in previous mechanochemical descriptions. A comparison is made between the model predictions and experimental data on human dermal wound healing and all the essential features are well matched. © 2012 Society for Mathematical Biology.

  13. An endogenous Taylor condition in an endogenous growth monetary policy model

    OpenAIRE

    Le, Mai Vo; Gillman, Max; Minford, Patrick

    2007-01-01

    The paper derives a Taylor condition as part of the agent's equilibrium behavior in an endogenous growth monetary economy. It shows the assumptions necessary to make it almost identical to the original Taylor rule, and that it can interchangably take a money supply growth rate form. From the money supply form, simple policy experiments are conducted. A full central bank policy model is derived that includes the Taylor condition along with equations comparable to the standard aggregate-demand/...

  14. Cyclophosphamide Enhances Human Tumor Growth in Nude Rat Xenografted Tumor Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yingjen Jeffrey Wu

    2009-02-01

    Full Text Available The effect of the immunomodulatory chemotherapeutic agent cyclophosphamide (CTX on tumor growth was investigated in primary and metastatic intracerebral and subcutaneous rat xenograft models. Nude rats were treated with CTX (100 mg/kg, intraperitoneally 24 hours before human ovarian carcinoma (SKOV3, small cell lung carcinoma (LX-1 SCLC, and glioma (UW28, U87MG, and U251 tumor cells were inoculated subcutaneously, intraperitoneally, or in the right cerebral hemisphere or were infused into the right internal carotid artery. Tumor development was monitored and recorded. Potential mechanisms were further investigated. Only animals that received both CTX and Matrigel showed consistent growth of subcutaneous tumors. Cyclophosphamide pretreatment increased the percentage (83.3% vs 0% of animals showing intraperitoneal tumors. In intracerebral implantation tumor models, CTX pretreatment increased the tumor volume and the percentage of animals showing tumors. Cyclophosphamide increased lung carcinoma bone and facial metastases after intra-arterial injection, and 20% of animals showed brain metastases. Cyclophosphamide transiently decreased nude rat white blood cell counts and glutathione concentration, whereas serum vascular endothelial growth factor was significantly elevated. Cyclophosphamide also increased CD31 reactivity, a marker of vascular endothelium, and macrophage (CD68-positive infiltration into glioma cell-inoculated rat brains. Cyclophosphamide may enhance primary and metastatic tumor growth through multiple mechanisms, including immune modulation, decreased response to oxidative stress, increased tumor vascularization, and increased macrophage infiltration. These findings may be clinically relevant because chemotherapy may predispose human cancer subjects to tumor growth in the brain or other tissues.

  15. Mathematical analysis of a model for the growth of the bovine corpus luteum

    KAUST Repository

    Prokopiou, Sotiris A.

    2013-12-13

    The corpus luteum (CL) is an ovarian tissue that grows in the wound space created by follicular rupture. It produces the progesterone needed in the uterus to maintain pregnancy. Rapid growth of the CL and progesterone transport to the uterus require angiogenesis, the creation of new blood vessels from pre-existing ones, a process which is regulated by proteins that include fibroblast growth factor 2 (FGF2). In this paper we develop a system of time-dependent ordinary differential equations to model CL growth. The dependent variables represent FGF2, endothelial cells (ECs), luteal cells, and stromal cells (like pericytes), by assuming that the CL volume is a continuum of the three cell types. We assume that if the CL volume exceeds that of the ovulated follicle, then growth is inhibited. This threshold volume partitions the system dynamics into two regimes, so that the model may be classified as a Filippov (piecewise smooth) system. We show that normal CL growth requires an appropriate balance between the growth rates of luteal and stromal cells. We investigate how angiogenesis influences CL growth by considering how the system dynamics depend on the dimensionless EC proliferation rate, {Mathematical expression}. We find that weak (low {Mathematical expression}) or strong (high {Mathematical expression}) angiogenesis leads to \\'pathological\\' CL growth, since the loss of CL constituents compromises progesterone production or delivery. However, for intermediate values of {Mathematical expression}, normal CL growth is predicted. The implications of these results for cow fertility are also discussed. For example, inadequate angiogenesis has been linked to infertility in dairy cows. © 2013 Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg.

  16. Probabilistic Model for Fatigue Crack Growth in Welded Bridge Details

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Toft, Henrik Stensgaard; Sørensen, John Dalsgaard; Yalamas, Thierry

    2013-01-01

    In the present paper a probabilistic model for fatigue crack growth in welded steel details in road bridges is presented. The probabilistic model takes the influence of bending stresses in the joints into account. The bending stresses can either be introduced by e.g. misalignment or redistribution...... of stresses in the structure. The fatigue stress ranges are estimated from traffic measurements and a generic bridge model. Based on the probabilistic models for the resistance and load the reliability is estimated for a typical welded steel detail. The results show that large misalignments in the joints can...

  17. Modeling Urban Collaborative Growth Dynamics Using a Multiscale Simulation Model for the Wuhan Urban Agglomeration Area, China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yan Yu

    2018-05-01

    Full Text Available Urban agglomeration has become the predominant form of urbanization in China. In this process, spatial interaction evidently played a significant role in promoting the collaborative development of these correlated cities. The traditional urban model’s focus on individual cities should be transformed to an urban system model. In this study, a multi-scale simulation model has been proposed to simulate the agglomeration development process of the Wuhan urban agglomeration area by embedding the multi-scale spatial interaction into the transition rule system of cellular automata (CA. A system dynamic model was used to predict the demand for new urban land at an aggregated urban agglomeration area scale. A data field approach was adopted to measuring the interaction of intercity at city scale. Neighborhood interaction was interpreted with a logistic regression method at the land parcel scale. Land use data from 1995, 2005, and 2015 were used to calibrate and evaluate the model. The simulation results show that there has been continuing urban growth in the Wuhan urban agglomeration area from 1995 to 2020. Although extension-sprawl was the predominant pattern of urban spatial expansion, the trend of extensive growth to intensive growth is clear during the entire period. The spatial interaction among these cities has been reinforced, which guided the collaborative development and formed the regional urban system network.

  18. Bayesian Calibration, Validation and Uncertainty Quantification for Predictive Modelling of Tumour Growth: A Tutorial.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Collis, Joe; Connor, Anthony J; Paczkowski, Marcin; Kannan, Pavitra; Pitt-Francis, Joe; Byrne, Helen M; Hubbard, Matthew E

    2017-04-01

    In this work, we present a pedagogical tumour growth example, in which we apply calibration and validation techniques to an uncertain, Gompertzian model of tumour spheroid growth. The key contribution of this article is the discussion and application of these methods (that are not commonly employed in the field of cancer modelling) in the context of a simple model, whose deterministic analogue is widely known within the community. In the course of the example, we calibrate the model against experimental data that are subject to measurement errors, and then validate the resulting uncertain model predictions. We then analyse the sensitivity of the model predictions to the underlying measurement model. Finally, we propose an elementary learning approach for tuning a threshold parameter in the validation procedure in order to maximize predictive accuracy of our validated model.

  19. A dynamic growth model of vegetative soya bean plants: model structure and behaviour under varying root temperature and nitrogen concentration

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lim, J. T.; Wilkerson, G. G.; Raper, C. D. Jr; Gold, H. J.

    1990-01-01

    A differential equation model of vegetative growth of the soya bean plant (Glycine max (L.) Merrill cv. Ransom') was developed to account for plant growth in a phytotron system under variation of root temperature and nitrogen concentration in nutrient solution. The model was tested by comparing model outputs with data from four different experiments. Model predictions agreed fairly well with measured plant performance over a wide range of root temperatures and over a range of nitrogen concentrations in nutrient solution between 0.5 and 10.0 mmol NO3- in the phytotron environment. Sensitivity analyses revealed that the model was most sensitive to changes in parameters relating to carbohydrate concentration in the plant and nitrogen uptake rate.

  20. Modeling growth kinetics of thin films made by atomic layer deposition in lateral high-aspect-ratio structures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ylilammi, Markku; Ylivaara, Oili M. E.; Puurunen, Riikka L.

    2018-05-01

    The conformality of thin films grown by atomic layer deposition (ALD) is studied using all-silicon test structures with long narrow lateral channels. A diffusion model, developed in this work, is used for studying the propagation of ALD growth in narrow channels. The diffusion model takes into account the gas transportation at low pressures, the dynamic Langmuir adsorption model for the film growth and the effect of channel narrowing due to film growth. The film growth is calculated by solving the diffusion equation with surface reactions. An efficient analytic approximate solution of the diffusion equation is developed for fitting the model to the measured thickness profile. The fitting gives the equilibrium constant of adsorption and the sticking coefficient. This model and Gordon's plug flow model are compared. The simulations predict the experimental measurement results quite well for Al2O3 and TiO2 ALD processes.

  1. Model-supported phototrophic growth studies with Scenedesmus obtusiusculus in a flat-plate photobioreactor.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koller, Anja Pia; Löwe, Hannes; Schmid, Verena; Mundt, Sabine; Weuster-Botz, Dirk

    2017-02-01

    Light-dependent growth of microalgae can vary remarkably depending on the cultivation system and microalgal strain. Cell size and the pigmentation of each strain, as well as reactor geometry have a great impact on absorption and scattering behavior within a photobioreactor. In this study, the light-dependent, cell-specific growth kinetics of a novel green algae isolate, Scenedesmus obtusiusculus, was studied in a LED-illuminated flat-plate photobioreactor on a lab-scale (1.8 L, 0.09 m 2 ). First, pH-controlled batch processes were performed with S. obtusiusculus at different constant incident photon flux densities. The best performance was achieved by illuminating S. obtusiusculus with 1400 μmol photons m -2  s -1 at the surface of the flat-plate photobioreactor, resulting in the highest biomass concentration (4.95 ± 0.16 g CDW  L -1 within 3.5 d) and the highest specific growth rate (0.22 h -1 ). The experimental data were used to identify the kinetic parameters of different growth models considering light inhibition for S. obtusiusculus. Light attenuation within the flat-plate photobioreactor was considered by varying light transfer models. Based on the identified kinetic growth model of S. obtusiusculus, an optimum growth rate of 0.22 h -1 was estimated at a mean integral photon flux density of 1072 μmol photons m -2  s -1 with the Beer-Lambert law and 1590 μmol photons m -2  s -1 with Schuster's light transfer model in the flat-plate photobioreactor. LED illumination was, thus, increased to keep the identified optimum mean integral photon flux density constant in the batch process assuming Schuster's light transfer model. Compared to the same constant incident photon flux density (1590 μmol photons m -2  s -1 ), biomass concentration was up to 24% higher using the lighting profile until a dry cell mass concentration of 14.4 ± 1.4 g CDW  L -1 was reached. Afterward, the biomass concentration remained constant

  2. Modeling Conformal Growth in Photonic Crystals and Comparing to Experiment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brzezinski, Andrew; Chen, Ying-Chieh; Wiltzius, Pierre; Braun, Paul

    2008-03-01

    Conformal growth, e.g. atomic layer deposition (ALD), of materials such as silicon and TiO2 on three dimensional (3D) templates is important for making photonic crystals. However, reliable calculations of optical properties as a function of the conformal growth, such as the optical band structure, are hampered by difficultly in accurately assessing a deposited material's spatial distribution. A widely used approximation ignores ``pinch off'' of precursor gas and assumes complete template infilling. Another approximation results in non-uniform growth velocity by employing iso-intensity surfaces of the 3D interference pattern used to create the template. We have developed an accurate model of conformal growth in arbitrary 3D periodic structures, allowing for arbitrary surface orientation. Results are compared with the above approximations and with experimentally fabricated photonic crystals. We use an SU8 polymer template created by 4-beam interference lithography, onto which various amounts of TiO2 are grown by ALD. Characterization is performed by analysis of cross-sectional scanning electron micrographs and by solid angle resolved optical spectroscopy.

  3. Business Model Innovation Portfolio Strategy for Growth Under Product-Market Configurations

    OpenAIRE

    Bert Verhoeven; Lester W. Johnson

    2017-01-01

    Purpose: The research links three concepts: product market growth strategy, the magnitude of innovation and Business Model Innovation, merging them together into a dynamic Business Model Innovation strategy framework. Design/Methodology/Approach: The paper is conceptual and exploratory in nature and builds on existing literature and the author’s experience with developing business models. Findings: The BMI strategy framework can help managers establish a BMI portfolio strategy followi...

  4. High-school students' reasoning while constructing plant growth models in a computer-supported educational environment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ergazaki, Marida; Komis, Vassilis; Zogza, Vassiliki

    2005-08-01

    This paper highlights specific aspects of high-school students’ reasoning while coping with a modeling task of plant growth in a computer-supported educational environment. It is particularly concerned with the modeling levels (‘macro-phenomenological’ and ‘micro-conceptual’ level) activated by peers while exploring plant growth and with their ability to shift between or within these levels. The focus is on the types of reasoning developed in the modeling process, as well as on the reasoning coherence around the central concept of plant growth. The findings of the study show that a significant proportion of the 18 participating dyads perform modeling on both levels, while their ability to shift between them as well as between the various elements of the ‘micro-conceptual’ level is rather constrained. Furthermore, the reasoning types identified in peers’ modeling process are ‘convergent’, ‘serial’, ‘linked’ and ‘convergent attached’, with the first type being the most frequent. Finally, a significant part of the participating dyads display a satisfactory degree of reasoning ‘coherence’, performing their task committed to the main objective of exploring plant growth. Teaching implications of the findings are also discussed.

  5. Gender Discrimination, Education and Economic Growth in a Generalized Uzawa-Lucas Two-Sector Model

    OpenAIRE

    Zhang Wei-Bin

    2014-01-01

    This paper is mainly concerned with relationships between economic growth and gender discrimination in labor markets and education. Although discrimination in different fields has well been addresses and modelled in the economic literature, there are only a few growth models with endogenous wealth and human capital accumulation, gender time distribution between work, leisure and education under gender (positive or negative) discrimination. The production and economic structures, human capital...

  6. A Role for M-Matrices in Modelling Population Growth

    Science.gov (United States)

    James, Glyn; Rumchev, Ventsi

    2006-01-01

    Adopting a discrete-time cohort-type model to represent the dynamics of a population, the problem of achieving a desired total size of the population under a balanced growth (contraction) and the problem of maintaining the desired size, once achieved, are studied. Properties of positive-time systems and M-matrices are used to develop the results,…

  7. Mathematical modeling of growth of Salmonella in raw ground beef under isothermal conditions from 10 to 45 Degree C

    Science.gov (United States)

    The objective of this study was to develop primary and secondary models to describe the growth of Salmonella in raw ground beef. Primary and secondary models can be integrated into a dynamic model that can predict the microbial growth under varying environmental conditions. Growth data of Salmonel...

  8. A simple model of discontinuous firm’s growth

    OpenAIRE

    D'Elia, Enrico

    2011-01-01

    Typically, firms change their size through a row of discrete leaps over time. Sunk costs, regulatory, financial and organizational constraints, talent distribution and other factors may explain this fact. However, firms tend to grow or fall discontinuously even if those inertial factors were removed. For instance, a very essential model of discontinuous growth can be based on a couple of assumptions concerning only technology and entrepreneurs’ strategy, that is: (a) in the short run, the...

  9. Software reliability growth models with normal failure time distributions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Okamura, Hiroyuki; Dohi, Tadashi; Osaki, Shunji

    2013-01-01

    This paper proposes software reliability growth models (SRGM) where the software failure time follows a normal distribution. The proposed model is mathematically tractable and has sufficient ability of fitting to the software failure data. In particular, we consider the parameter estimation algorithm for the SRGM with normal distribution. The developed algorithm is based on an EM (expectation-maximization) algorithm and is quite simple for implementation as software application. Numerical experiment is devoted to investigating the fitting ability of the SRGMs with normal distribution through 16 types of failure time data collected in real software projects

  10. A new growth model for the Russian economy1

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alexey Kudrin

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available The problems underlying the current slowdown of the Russian economy are of a persistent nature and cannot be resolved with simple measures such as a softer monetary or fiscal policy. The fundamen- tal reason for these problems is the weak market environment dominated by public and quasi-public companies. A new growth model should be based upon strong incentive for the business, as well as the government regulation system, to improve efficiency. This article defines the main steps to be taken in building such a model.

  11. Thermal system design and modeling of meniscus controlled silicon growth process for solar applications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Chenlei

    The direct conversion of solar radiation to electricity by photovoltaics has a number of significant advantages as an electricity generator. That is, solar photovoltaic conversion systems tap an inexhaustible resource which is free of charge and available anywhere in the world. Roofing tile photovoltaic generation, for example, saves excess thermal heat and preserves the local heat balance. This means that a considerable reduction of thermal pollution in densely populated city areas can be attained. A semiconductor can only convert photons with the energy of the band gap with good efficiency. It is known that silicon is not at the maximum efficiency but relatively close to it. There are several main parts for the photovoltaic materials, which include, single- and poly-crystalline silicon, ribbon silicon, crystalline thin-film silicon, amorphous silicon, copper indium diselenide and related compounds, cadmium telluride, et al. In this dissertation, we focus on melt growth of the single- and poly-crystalline silicon manufactured by Czochralski (Cz) crystal growth process, and ribbon silicon produced by the edge-defined film-fed growth (EFG) process. These two methods are the most commonly used techniques for growing photovoltaic semiconductors. For each crystal growth process, we introduce the growth mechanism, growth system design, general application, and progress in the numerical simulation. Simulation results are shown for both Czochralski and EFG systems including temperature distribution of the growth system, velocity field inside the silicon melt and electromagnetic field for the EFG growth system. Magnetic field is applied on Cz system to reduce the melt convection inside crucible and this has been simulated in our numerical model. Parametric studies are performed through numerical and analytical models to investigate the relationship between heater power levels and solidification interface movement and shape. An inverse problem control scheme is developed to

  12. Modeling growth of three bakery product spoilage molds as a function of water activity, temperature and pH.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dagnas, Stéphane; Onno, Bernard; Membré, Jeanne-Marie

    2014-09-01

    The objective of this study was to quantify the effect of water activity, pH and storage temperature on the growth of Eurotium repens, Aspergillus niger and Penicillium corylophilum, isolated from spoiled bakery products. Moreover, the behaviors of these three mold species were compared to assess whether a general modeling framework may be set and re-used in future research on bakery spoilage molds. The mold growth was modeled by building two distinct Gamma-type secondary models: one on the lag time for growth and another one on the radial growth rate. A set of 428 experimental growth curves was generated. The effect of temperature (15-35 °C), water activity (0.80-0.98) and pH (3-7) was assessed. Results showed that it was not possible to apply the same set of secondary model equations to the three mold species given that the growth rate varied significantly with the factors pH and water activity. In contrast, the temperature effect on both growth rate and lag time of the three mold species was described by the same equation. The equation structure and model parameter values of the Gamma models were also compared per mold species to assess whether a relationship between lag time and growth rate existed. There was no correlation between the two growth responses for E. repens, but a slight one for A. niger and P. corylophilum. These findings will help in determining bakery product shelf-life and guiding future work in the predictive mycology field. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  13. Innovation, Decentralization and Planning in a Multi-Region Model of Schumpeterian Economic Growth

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Batabyal, A.; Nijkamp, P.

    2014-01-01

    We study innovation and the resulting Schumpeterian economic growth that this innovation gives rise to in a model with N heterogeneous regions. For each region i where i = 1,…,N, our analysis leads to six findings. First, we define the balanced growth path (BGP) allocations and the equilibrium of

  14. The impact of atmospheric deposition and climate on forest growth in Europe using two empirical modelling approaches

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dobbertin, M.; Solberg, S.; Laubhann, D.; Sterba, H.; Reinds, G. J.; de Vries, W.

    2009-04-01

    Most recent studies show increasing forest growth in central Europe, rather than a decline as was expected due to negative effects of air pollution. While nitrogen deposition, increasing temperature and change in forest management are discussed as possible causes, quantification of the various environmental factors has rarely been undertaken. In our study, we used data from several hundreds of intensive monitoring plots from the ICP Forests network in Europe, ranging from northern Finland to Spain and southern Italy. Five-year growth data for the period 1994-1999 were available from roughly 650 plots to examine the influence of environmental factors on forest growth. Evaluations focused on the influence of nitrogen, sulphur and acid deposition, temperature, precipitation and drought. Concerning the latter meteorological variables we used the deviation from the long-term (30 years) mean. The study included the main tree species common beech (Fagus sylvatica), sessile or pedunculate oak (Quercus petraea and Q. robur), Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris) and Norway spruce (Picea abies). Two very different approaches were used. In the first approach an individual tree-based regression model was applied (Laubhahn et al., 2009), while in the second approach a stand-based model was applied (Solberg et al., 2009). The individual tree-based model had measured basal area increment of each individual tree as a growth response variable and tree size (diameter at breast height), tree competition (basal area of larger trees and stand density index), site factors (e.g. soil C/N ratio, temperature), and environmental factors (e.g. temperature change compared to long-term average, nitrogen and sulphur deposition) as influencing parameters. In the stand-growth model, stem volume increment was used as the growth response variable, after filtering out the expected growth. Expected growth was modelled as a function of site productivity, stand age and a stand density index. Relative volume

  15. EFFECT OF DIFFERENT ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS ON THE GROWTH DYNAMICS OF STAPHYLOCOCCUS AUREUS IN MODEL MEDIUM

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adriana Studeničová

    2012-02-01

    Full Text Available As the strains of S. aureus growing during fermentation of raw milk cheeses are exposed to the competitive growth of lactic acid bacteria and their metabolites, in this work, we characterized the growth of the strain S. aureus 2064 isolated from such environment against of water activity values and incubation temperature. Water activity of the tested media was adjusted by NaCl in the range from 0 % to 20.72 % and the experiments were carried out at 37 °C. It was found that the strain under study showed growth until NaCl concentration of 19.95 % in PCA broth. The complete growth cessation of S. aureus 2064 was observed at NaCl concentration higher than 20.72 %. The effect of water activity on the S. aureus 2064 lag-phase duration was described by the modified Davey model with discrepancy of 24.6 %. The growth rate dependence on water activity was described more precisely and reliably by Gibson model that provided the following validation indices: bias factor 0.999 and discrepancy factor 9.6 %. Based on the results we can conclude that secondary models used in this work were suitable to predict growth of S. aureus 2064, originally the ewes´cheese isolate.doi:10.5219/179

  16. Possibilities and Limitations of Applying Software Reliability Growth Models to Safety- Critical Software

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, Man Cheol; Jang, Seung Cheol; Ha, Jae Joo

    2006-01-01

    As digital systems are gradually introduced to nuclear power plants (NPPs), the need of quantitatively analyzing the reliability of the digital systems is also increasing. Kang and Sung identified (1) software reliability, (2) common-cause failures (CCFs), and (3) fault coverage as the three most critical factors in the reliability analysis of digital systems. For the estimation of the safety-critical software (the software that is used in safety-critical digital systems), the use of Bayesian Belief Networks (BBNs) seems to be most widely used. The use of BBNs in reliability estimation of safety-critical software is basically a process of indirectly assigning a reliability based on various observed information and experts' opinions. When software testing results or software failure histories are available, we can use a process of directly estimating the reliability of the software using various software reliability growth models such as Jelinski- Moranda model and Goel-Okumoto's nonhomogeneous Poisson process (NHPP) model. Even though it is generally known that software reliability growth models cannot be applied to safety-critical software due to small number of expected failure data from the testing of safety-critical software, we try to find possibilities and corresponding limitations of applying software reliability growth models to safety critical software

  17. REFERENCE MODELS OF ENDOGENOUS ECONOMIC GROWTH

    OpenAIRE

    GEAMĂNU MARINELA

    2012-01-01

    The new endogenous growth theories are a very important research area for shaping the most effective policies and long term sustainable development strategies. Endogenous growth theory has emerged as a reaction to the imperfections of neoclassical theory, by the fact that the economic growth is the endogenous product of an economical system.

  18. MODELS OF AN-TYPE INNOVATIVE ENDOGENOUS GROWTH AND THEIR SUBSTANTIATION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Askar A. Akaev

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The article presents an analysis of some classical models of economic growth of exogenous and endogenous type, based on the calculation of the motion of physical capital. It is shown that the simplest AN-type model, based on the calculation of population dynamics and endogenous technological progress, is more adequate for the description of the current economic development and provides a more accurate long-term forecast of economic dynamics.

  19. An efficient computational method for global sensitivity analysis and its application to tree growth modelling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wu, Qiong-Li; Cournède, Paul-Henry; Mathieu, Amélie

    2012-01-01

    Global sensitivity analysis has a key role to play in the design and parameterisation of functional–structural plant growth models which combine the description of plant structural development (organogenesis and geometry) and functional growth (biomass accumulation and allocation). We are particularly interested in this study in Sobol's method which decomposes the variance of the output of interest into terms due to individual parameters but also to interactions between parameters. Such information is crucial for systems with potentially high levels of non-linearity and interactions between processes, like plant growth. However, the computation of Sobol's indices relies on Monte Carlo sampling and re-sampling, whose costs can be very high, especially when model evaluation is also expensive, as for tree models. In this paper, we thus propose a new method to compute Sobol's indices inspired by Homma–Saltelli, which improves slightly their use of model evaluations, and then derive for this generic type of computational methods an estimator of the error estimation of sensitivity indices with respect to the sampling size. It allows the detailed control of the balance between accuracy and computing time. Numerical tests on a simple non-linear model are convincing and the method is finally applied to a functional–structural model of tree growth, GreenLab, whose particularity is the strong level of interaction between plant functioning and organogenesis. - Highlights: ► We study global sensitivity analysis in the context of functional–structural plant modelling. ► A new estimator based on Homma–Saltelli method is proposed to compute Sobol indices, based on a more balanced re-sampling strategy. ► The estimation accuracy of sensitivity indices for a class of Sobol's estimators can be controlled by error analysis. ► The proposed algorithm is implemented efficiently to compute Sobol indices for a complex tree growth model.

  20. A fuzzy mathematical model of West Java population with logistic growth model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nurkholipah, N. S.; Amarti, Z.; Anggriani, N.; Supriatna, A. K.

    2018-03-01

    In this paper we develop a mathematics model of population growth in the West Java Province Indonesia. The model takes the form as a logistic differential equation. We parameterize the model using several triples of data, and choose the best triple which has the smallest Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE). The resulting model is able to predict the historical data with a high accuracy and it also able to predict the future of population number. Predicting the future population is among the important factors that affect the consideration is preparing a good management for the population. Several experiment are done to look at the effect of impreciseness in the data. This is done by considering a fuzzy initial value to the crisp model assuming that the model propagates the fuzziness of the independent variable to the dependent variable. We assume here a triangle fuzzy number representing the impreciseness in the data. We found that the fuzziness may disappear in the long-term. Other scenarios also investigated, such as the effect of fuzzy parameters to the crisp initial value of the population. The solution of the model is obtained numerically using the fourth-order Runge-Kutta scheme.

  1. Probabilistic Modeling of the Fatigue Crack Growth Rate for Ni-base Alloy X-750

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yoon, Jae Young; Nam, Hyo On; Hwang, Il Soon; Tae Hyun Lee

    2012-01-01

    The Bayesian inference was employed to reduce the uncertainties contained in EAC modeling parameters that have been established from experiments with Alloy X-750. Corrosion fatigue crack growth rate model(FCGR) was developed by fitting into Paris' Law of measured data from the several fatigue tests conducted either in constant load or constant ΔK mode. From fitting the data to Paris' Law, the parameters C and m of Paris' Law model were assumed to obey the Gaussian distribution. These parameters characterizing the corrosion fatigue crack growth behavior of X-750 were updated to reduce the uncertainty in the model by using the Bayesian inference method. (author)

  2. Somatic growth of mussels Mytilus edulis in field studies compared to predictions using BEG, DEB, and SFG models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larsen, Poul Scheel; Filgueira, Ramón; Riisgård, Hans Ulrik

    2014-01-01

    Prediction of somatic growth of blue mussels, Mytilus edulis, based on the data from 2 field-growth studies of mussels in suspended net-bags in Danish waters was made by 3 models: the bioenergetic growth (BEG), the dynamic energy budget (DEB), and the scope for growth (SFG). Here, the standard BEG...... at nearly constant environmental conditions with a mean chl a concentration of C=2.7μgL−1, and the observed monotonous growth in the dry weight of soft parts was best predicted by DEB while BEG and SFG models produced lower growth. The second 165-day field study was affected by large variations in chl...... a and temperature, and the observed growth varied accordingly, but nevertheless, DEB and SFG predicted monotonous growth in good agreement with the mean pattern while BEG mimicked the field data in response to observed changes in chl a concentration and temperature. The general features of the models were that DEB...

  3. Sustainable economic growth and exhaustible resources: A model and estimation for the US

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Almuth Scholl

    2002-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper studies current models on sustainable economic growth with resource constraints and explores to what extent resource constraints can be overcome by substitution and technological change. We also study the problem of intergenerational equity and the different criteria that have been suggested in the literature. The central part of this paper is the presentation of stylized facts on exhaustible resources and an estimation of a basic model with resource constraints for US time series data. The estimated years left until depletion and the empirical trends of the ratios of capital stock and consumption to resources seem to indicate that there might be a threat to sustainable growth in the future. In our estimation, we obtain parameter values, which help to interpret the extent to which growth with exhaustible resources is sustainable.

  4. A Mechanobiological model for damage-induced growth in arterial tissue with application to in-stent restenosis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fereidoonnezhad, B.; Naghdabadi, R.; Sohrabpour, S.; Holzapfel, G. A.

    In-stent restenosis (ISR) is one of the main drawbacks of stent implementation which limits the long-term success of the procedure. Morphological changes occurring within the arterial wall due to stent-induced mechanical injury are a major cause for activation of vascular smooth muscle cells (VSMCs), and the subsequent development of ISR. Considering the theory of volumetric mass growth and adopting a multiplicative decomposition of the deformation gradient into an elastic part and a growth part, we present a mechanobiological model for ISR. An evolution equation is developed for mass growth of the neointima, in which the activation of VSMCs due to stent-induced damage (injury) and the proliferation rate of the activated cells are considered. By introducing the mass evolution into the mass balance equation, we obtain the evolution of the growth tensor over time. The model is implemented in a finite element code and the procedure of angioplasty is simulated, whereby the features of the proposed growth model are illustrated.

  5. Somatic growth of mussels Mytilus edulis in field studies compared to predictions using BEG, DEB, and SFG models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Larsen, Poul S.; Filgueira, Ramón; Riisgård, Hans Ulrik

    2014-04-01

    Prediction of somatic growth of blue mussels, Mytilus edulis, based on the data from 2 field-growth studies of mussels in suspended net-bags in Danish waters was made by 3 models: the bioenergetic growth (BEG), the dynamic energy budget (DEB), and the scope for growth (SFG). Here, the standard BEG model has been expanded to include the temperature dependence of filtration rate and respiration and an ad hoc modification to ensure a smooth transition to zero ingestion as chlorophyll a (chl a) concentration approaches zero, both guided by published data. The first 21-day field study was conducted at nearly constant environmental conditions with a mean chl a concentration of C = 2.7 μg L- 1, and the observed monotonous growth in the dry weight of soft parts was best predicted by DEB while BEG and SFG models produced lower growth. The second 165-day field study was affected by large variations in chl a and temperature, and the observed growth varied accordingly, but nevertheless, DEB and SFG predicted monotonous growth in good agreement with the mean pattern while BEG mimicked the field data in response to observed changes in chl a concentration and temperature. The general features of the models were that DEB produced the best average predictions, SFG mostly underestimated growth, whereas only BEG was sensitive to variations in chl a concentration and temperature. DEB and SFG models rely on the calibration of the half-saturation coefficient to optimize the food ingestion function term to that of observed growth, and BEG is independent of observed actual growth as its predictions solely rely on the time history of the local chl a concentration and temperature.

  6. Modelling the interaction between flooding events and economic growth

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grames, Johanna; Grass, Dieter; Prskawetz, Alexia; Blöschl, Günther

    2015-04-01

    Socio-hydrology describes the interaction between the socio-economy, water and population dynamics. Recent models analyze the interplay of community risk-coping culture, flooding damage and economic growth (Di Baldassarre, 2013, Viglione, 2014). These models descriptively explain the feedbacks between socio-economic development and natural disasters like floods. Contrary to these descriptive models, our approach develops an optimization model, where the intertemporal decision of an economic agent interacts with the hydrological system. This is the first economic growth model describing the interaction between the consumption and investment decisions of an economic agent and the occurrence of flooding events: Investments in defense capital can avoid floods even when the water level is high, but on the other hand such investment competes with investment in productive capital and hence may reduce the level of consumption. When floods occur, the flood damage therefore depends on the existing defense capital. The aim is to find an optimal tradeoff between investments in productive versus defense capital such as to optimize the stream of consumption in the long-term. We assume a non-autonomous exogenous periodic rainfall function (Yevjevich et.al. 1990, Zakaria 2001) which implies that the long-term equilibrium will be periodic . With our model we aim to derive mechanisms that allow consumption smoothing in the long term, and at the same time allow for optimal investment in flood defense to maximize economic output. We choose an aggregate welfare function that depends on the consumption level of the society as the objective function. I.e. we assume a social planer with perfect foresight that maximizes the aggregate welfare function. Within our model framework we can also study whether the path and level of defense capital (that protects people from floods) is related to the time preference rate of the social planner. Our model also allows to investigate how the frequency

  7. Predictive model of Amorphophallus muelleri growth in some agroforestry in East Java by multiple regression analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    BUDIMAN

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Budiman, Arisoesilaningsih E. 2012. Predictive model of Amorphophallus muelleri growth in some agroforestry in East Java by multiple regression analysis. Biodiversitas 13: 18-22. The aims of this research was to determine the multiple regression models of vegetative and corm growth of Amorphophallus muelleri Blume in some age variations and habitat conditions of agroforestry in East Java. Descriptive exploratory research method was conducted by systematic random sampling at five agroforestries on four plantations in East Java: Saradan, Bojonegoro, Nganjuk and Blitar. In each agroforestry, we observed A. muelleri vegetative and corm growth on four growing age (1, 2, 3 and 4 years old respectively as well as environmental variables such as altitude, vegetation, climate and soil conditions. Data were analyzed using descriptive statistics to compare A. muelleri habitat in five agroforestries. Meanwhile, the influence and contribution of each environmental variable to the growth of A. muelleri vegetative and corm were determined using multiple regression analysis of SPSS 17.0. The multiple regression models of A. muelleri vegetative and corm growth were generated based on some characteristics of agroforestries and age showed high validity with R2 = 88-99%. Regression model showed that age, monthly temperatures, percentage of radiation and soil calcium (Ca content either simultaneously or partially determined the growth of A. muelleri vegetative and corm. Based on these models, the A. muelleri corm reached the optimal growth after four years of cultivation and they will be ready to be harvested. Additionally, the soil Ca content should reach 25.3 me.hg-1 as Sugihwaras agroforestry, with the maximal radiation of 60%.

  8. Modelling dimensional growth of three street tree species in the ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The results could also be used in the process of modelling energy use reduction, air pollution uptake, rainfall interception, carbon sequestration and microclimate modification of urban forests such as those found in the City of Tshwane. Keywords: allometry; regression; size relationships; tree growth; urban forests. Southern ...

  9. A multi-sectoral version of the Post-Keynesian growth model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ricardo Azevedo Araujo

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available Abstract With this inquiry, we seek to develop a disaggregated version of the post-Keynesian approach to economic growth, by showing that indeed it can be treated as a particular case of the Pasinettian model of structural change and economic expansion. By relying upon vertical integration it becomes possible to carry out the analysis initiated by Kaldor (1956 and Robinson (1956, 1962, and followed by Dutt (1984, Rowthorn (1982 and later Bhaduri and Marglin (1990 in a multi-sectoral model in which demand and productivity increase at different paces in each sector. By adopting this approach it is possible to show that the structural economic dynamics is conditioned not only to patterns of evolving demand and diffusion of technological progress but also to the distributive features of the economy, which can give rise to different regimes of economic growth. Besides, we find it possible to determine the natural rate of profit that makes the mark-up rate to be constant over time.

  10. A mean-field game economic growth model

    KAUST Repository

    Gomes, Diogo A.

    2016-08-05

    Here, we examine a mean-field game (MFG) that models the economic growth of a population of non-cooperative, rational agents. In this MFG, agents are described by two state variables - the capital and consumer goods they own. Each agent seeks to maximize his/her utility by taking into account statistical data about the whole population. The individual actions drive the evolution of the players, and a market-clearing condition determines the relative price of capital and consumer goods. We study the existence and uniqueness of optimal strategies of the agents and develop numerical methods to compute these strategies and the equilibrium price.

  11. Modeling of interaction layer growth between U-Mo particles and an Al matrix

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, Yeon Soo; Horman, G. L.; Ryu, Ho Jin; Park, Jong Man; Robinson, A. B.; Wachs, D. M.

    2013-01-01

    Interaction layer growth between U-Mo alloy fuel particles and Al in a dispersion fuel is a concern due to the volume expansion and other unfavorable irradiation behavior of the interaction product. To reduce interaction layer (IL) growth, a small amount of Si is added to the Al. As a result, IL growth is affected by the Si content in the Al matrix. In order to predict IL growth during fabrication and irradiation, empirical models were developed. For IL growth prediction during fabrication and any follow-on heating process before irradiation, out-of-pile heating test data were used to develop kinetic correlations. Two out-of-pile correlations, one for the pure Al matrix and the other for the Al matrix with Si addition, respectively, were developed, which are Arrhenius equations that include temperature and time. For IL growth predictions during irradiation, the out-of-pile correlations were modified to include a fission-rate term to consider fission enhanced diffusion, and multiplication factors to incorporate the Si addition effect and the effect of the Mo content. The in-pile correlation is applicable for a pure Al matrix and an Al matrix with the Si content up to 8 wt%, for fuel temperatures up to 200 .deg. C, and for Mo content in the range of 6 - 10wt%. In order to cover these ranges, in-pile data were included in modeling from various tests, such as the US RERTR-4, -5, -6, -7 and -9 tests and Korea's KOMO-4 test, that were designed to systematically examine the effects of the fission rate, temperature, Si content in Al matrix, and Mo content in U-Mo particles. A model converting the IL thickness to the IL volume fraction in the meat was also developed

  12. MODELING OF INTERACTION LAYER GROWTH BETWEEN U-Mo PARTICLES AND AN Al MATRIX

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    YEON SOO KIM

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available Interaction layer growth between U-Mo alloy fuel particles and Al in a dispersion fuel is a concern due to the volume expansion and other unfavorable irradiation behavior of the interaction product. To reduce interaction layer (IL growth, a small amount of Si is added to the Al. As a result, IL growth is affected by the Si content in the Al matrix. In order to predict IL growth during fabrication and irradiation, empirical models were developed. For IL growth prediction during fabrication and any follow-on heating process before irradiation, out-of-pile heating test data were used to develop kinetic correlations. Two out-of-pile correlations, one for the pure Al matrix and the other for the Al matrix with Si addition, respectively, were developed, which are Arrhenius equations that include temperature and time. For IL growth predictions during irradiation, the out-of-pile correlations were modified to include a fission-rate term to consider fission enhanced diffusion, and multiplication factors to incorporate the Si addition effect and the effect of the Mo content. The in-pile correlation is applicable for a pure Al matrix and an Al matrix with the Si content up to 8 wt%, for fuel temperatures up to 200 °C, and for Mo content in the range of 6 – 10wt%. In order to cover these ranges, in-pile data were included in modeling from various tests, such as the US RERTR-4, -5, -6, -7 and -9 tests and Korea's KOMO-4 test, that were designed to systematically examine the effects of the fission rate, temperature, Si content in Al matrix, and Mo content in U-Mo particles. A model converting the IL thickness to the IL volume fraction in the meat was also developed.

  13. Field data and growth model for mussels Mytilus edulis in Danish waters

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Riisgard, Hans Ulrik; Lundgreen, Kim; Larsen, Poul S.

    2012-01-01

    of different overlapping size-classes of M. edulis were analysed individually and after being assembled to cover the full range of sizes, as full time series in terms of weight specific growth rate (μ = (1/W) dW/dt,% day-1) as a function of dry weight of soft parts (W, g). The results were compared to a simple...... bioenergetic growth model for mussels (μ = aWb, a = 0.871 x C - 0.986, b = -0.34), and observed power-law relations of growth data were in good agreement with the model, which takes into account the prevailing average chlorophyll a (chl a) concentration (C, μ g chl a l-1) at field sites. Thus, the b......-values of data were close to the predicted -0.34 while the a-value was in one case lower than estimated due to suboptimal conditions during part of the growth period. As a supplementary interpretation the growth data have been expressed in terms of the time to double the dry weight of soft parts for a given size...

  14. A generalized-growth model to characterize the early ascending phase of infectious disease outbreaks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Viboud, Cecile; Simonsen, Lone; Chowell, Gerardo

    2016-01-01

    the importance of sub-exponential growth for forecasting purposes.Results: We applied the generalized-growth model to 20 infectious disease outbreaks representing a range of transmission routes. We uncovered epidemic profiles ranging from very slow growth (p = 0.14 for the Ebola outbreak in Bomi, Liberia (2014...... African Ebola epidemic provided a unique opportunity to explore how growth profiles vary by geography; analysis of the largest district-level outbreaks revealed substantial growth variations (mean p = 0.59, range: 0.14–0.97). The districts of Margibi in Liberia and Bombali and Bo in Sierra Leone had near......-exponential growth, while the districts of Bomi in Liberia and Kenema in Sierra Leone displayed near constant incidences.Conclusions: Our findings reveal significant variation in epidemic growth patterns across different infectious disease outbreaks and highlights that sub-exponential growth is a common phenomenon...

  15. A computational growth model for measuring dynamic cortical development in the first year of life.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nie, Jingxin; Li, Gang; Wang, Li; Gilmore, John H; Lin, Weili; Shen, Dinggang

    2012-10-01

    Human cerebral cortex develops extremely fast in the first year of life. Quantitative measurement of cortical development during this early stage plays an important role in revealing the relationship between cortical structural and high-level functional development. This paper presents a computational growth model to simulate the dynamic development of the cerebral cortex from birth to 1 year old by modeling the cerebral cortex as a deformable elastoplasticity surface driven via a growth model. To achieve a high accuracy, a guidance model is also incorporated to estimate the growth parameters and cortical shapes at later developmental stages. The proposed growth model has been applied to 10 healthy subjects with longitudinal brain MR images acquired at every 3 months from birth to 1 year old. The experimental results show that our proposed method can capture the dynamic developmental process of the cortex, with the average surface distance error smaller than 0.6 mm compared with the ground truth surfaces, and the results also show that 1) the curvedness and sharpness decrease from 2 weeks to 12 months and 2) the frontal lobe shows rapidly increasing cortical folding during this period, with relatively slower increase of the cortical folding in the occipital and parietal lobes.

  16. Criticisms and defences of the balance-of-payments constrained growth model: some old, some new

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    John S.L. McCombie

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper assesses various critiques that have been levelled over the years against Thirlwall’s Law and the balance-of-payments constrained growth model. It starts by assessing the criticisms that the law is largely capturing an identity; that the law of one price renders the model incoherent; and that statistical testing using cross-country data rejects the hypothesis that the actual and the balance-of-payments equilibrium growth rates are the same. It goes on to consider the argument that calculations of the “constant-market-shares” income elasticities of demand for exports demonstrate that the UK (and by implication other advanced countries could not have been balance-of-payments constrained in the early postwar period. Next Krugman’s interpretation of the law (or what he terms the “45-degree rule”, which is at variance with the usual demand-oriented explanation, is examined. The paper next assesses attempts to reconcile the demand and supply side of the model and examines whether or not the balance-of-payments constrained growth model is subject to the fallacy of composition. It concludes that none of these criticisms invalidate the model, which remains a powerful explanation of why growth rates differ.

  17. Traditional and alternative nonlinear models for estimating the growth of Morada Nova sheep

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Laaina de Andrade Souza

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available In the present study, alternative and traditional nonlinear models to describe growth curves of Morada Nova sheep reared in the state of Bahia, Brazil, were applied. The nonlinear models were: Schnute, Mitscherlich, Gompertz, Logistic, Meloun I Meloun II, III Meloun, Gamito and Meloun IV. The model adjustment was evaluated by using: Adjusted Coefficient of Determination (R²aj, Akaike Information Criterion (AIC, Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC, Mean Squared Error of Prediction (MEP and Coefficient of Determination of Prediction (R²p. The selection of the best model was based on cluster analysis, using the evaluators as variables. Six out of the nine tested models converged, while Meloun I and Meloun IV were equally effective in explaining animal growth, without significant influence of sex or type of parturition over the curve parameters. The models Meloun I and IV have the best adjustment and reveal a remarkable reduction of weight gain after 150 days of age, which indicates special attention should be given to feeding at this stage.

  18. Development and validation of SUCROS-Cotton : A potential crop growth simulation model for cotton

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Zhang, L.; Werf, van der W.; Cao, W.; Li, B.; Pan, X.; Spiertz, J.H.J.

    2008-01-01

    A model for the development, growth and potential production of cotton (SUCROS-Cotton) was developed. Particular attention was given to the phenological development of the plant and the plasticity of fruit growth in response to temperature, radiation, daylength, variety traits, and management. The

  19. Foreign trade elasticities in centre-periphery models of growth and development

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anthony Philip Thirlwall

    1983-09-01

    Full Text Available The Author looks at the difference in growth rates among countries and argues that they can be traced to the strength of the balance of payments position, determined largely by the propensity to export relative to the propensity to import. Relative growth performance, thus, can be understood by looking to income elasticities of demand for exports and imports. This insight into the process of income determination in open economies, found in Harrod as well as in the literature on economic development, is developed through so-called centre-periphery models of growth and development. However, their essential conclusions were already contained in the early classic papers. The author concentrates on three of them (prebisch, seers, kaldor to argue that a country’s growth rate relative to another’s can be approximated by the ratio of its income elasticity of demand for exports to its income elasticity of demand for imports.

  20. Application of a Predictive Growth Model of Pseudomonas spp. for Estimating Shelf Life of Fresh Agaricus bisporus.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Jianming; Chen, Junran; Hu, Yunfeng; Hu, Hanyan; Liu, Guohua; Yan, Ruixiang

    2017-10-01

    For prediction of the shelf life of the mushroom Agaricus bisporus, the growth curve of the main spoilage microorganisms was studied under isothermal conditions at 2 to 22°C with a modified Gompertz model. The effect of temperature on the growth parameters for the main spoilage microorganisms was quantified and modeled using the square root model. Pseudomonas spp. were the main microorganisms causing A. bisporus decay, and the modified Gompertz model was useful for modelling the growth curve of Pseudomonas spp. All the bias factors values of the model were close to 1. By combining the modified Gompertz model with the square root model, a prediction model to estimate the shelf life of A. bisporus as a function of storage temperature was developed. The model was validated for A. bisporus stored at 6, 12, and 18°C, and adequate agreement was found between the experimental and predicted data.