WorldWideScience

Sample records for nonparametric regression models

  1. Nonparametric Mixture of Regression Models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Mian; Li, Runze; Wang, Shaoli

    2013-07-01

    Motivated by an analysis of US house price index data, we propose nonparametric finite mixture of regression models. We study the identifiability issue of the proposed models, and develop an estimation procedure by employing kernel regression. We further systematically study the sampling properties of the proposed estimators, and establish their asymptotic normality. A modified EM algorithm is proposed to carry out the estimation procedure. We show that our algorithm preserves the ascent property of the EM algorithm in an asymptotic sense. Monte Carlo simulations are conducted to examine the finite sample performance of the proposed estimation procedure. An empirical analysis of the US house price index data is illustrated for the proposed methodology.

  2. Genomic breeding value estimation using nonparametric additive regression models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Solberg Trygve

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Genomic selection refers to the use of genomewide dense markers for breeding value estimation and subsequently for selection. The main challenge of genomic breeding value estimation is the estimation of many effects from a limited number of observations. Bayesian methods have been proposed to successfully cope with these challenges. As an alternative class of models, non- and semiparametric models were recently introduced. The present study investigated the ability of nonparametric additive regression models to predict genomic breeding values. The genotypes were modelled for each marker or pair of flanking markers (i.e. the predictors separately. The nonparametric functions for the predictors were estimated simultaneously using additive model theory, applying a binomial kernel. The optimal degree of smoothing was determined by bootstrapping. A mutation-drift-balance simulation was carried out. The breeding values of the last generation (genotyped was predicted using data from the next last generation (genotyped and phenotyped. The results show moderate to high accuracies of the predicted breeding values. A determination of predictor specific degree of smoothing increased the accuracy.

  3. Testing for constant nonparametric effects in general semiparametric regression models with interactions

    KAUST Repository

    Wei, Jiawei; Carroll, Raymond J.; Maity, Arnab

    2011-01-01

    We consider the problem of testing for a constant nonparametric effect in a general semi-parametric regression model when there is the potential for interaction between the parametrically and nonparametrically modeled variables. The work

  4. Parametric vs. Nonparametric Regression Modelling within Clinical Decision Support

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Kalina, Jan; Zvárová, Jana

    2017-01-01

    Roč. 5, č. 1 (2017), s. 21-27 ISSN 1805-8698 R&D Projects: GA ČR GA17-01251S Institutional support: RVO:67985807 Keywords : decision support systems * decision rules * statistical analysis * nonparametric regression Subject RIV: IN - Informatics, Computer Science OBOR OECD: Statistics and probability

  5. On concurvity in nonlinear and nonparametric regression models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sonia Amodio

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available When data are affected by multicollinearity in the linear regression framework, then concurvity will be present in fitting a generalized additive model (GAM. The term concurvity describes nonlinear dependencies among the predictor variables. As collinearity results in inflated variance of the estimated regression coefficients in the linear regression model, the result of the presence of concurvity leads to instability of the estimated coefficients in GAMs. Even if the backfitting algorithm will always converge to a solution, in case of concurvity the final solution of the backfitting procedure in fitting a GAM is influenced by the starting functions. While exact concurvity is highly unlikely, approximate concurvity, the analogue of multicollinearity, is of practical concern as it can lead to upwardly biased estimates of the parameters and to underestimation of their standard errors, increasing the risk of committing type I error. We compare the existing approaches to detect concurvity, pointing out their advantages and drawbacks, using simulated and real data sets. As a result, this paper will provide a general criterion to detect concurvity in nonlinear and non parametric regression models.

  6. A Bayesian Nonparametric Causal Model for Regression Discontinuity Designs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karabatsos, George; Walker, Stephen G.

    2013-01-01

    The regression discontinuity (RD) design (Thistlewaite & Campbell, 1960; Cook, 2008) provides a framework to identify and estimate causal effects from a non-randomized design. Each subject of a RD design is assigned to the treatment (versus assignment to a non-treatment) whenever her/his observed value of the assignment variable equals or…

  7. Nonparametric Estimation of Regression Parameters in Measurement Error Models

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Ehsanes Saleh, A.K.M.D.; Picek, J.; Kalina, Jan

    2009-01-01

    Roč. 67, č. 2 (2009), s. 177-200 ISSN 0026-1424 Grant - others:GA AV ČR(CZ) IAA101120801; GA MŠk(CZ) LC06024 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z10300504 Keywords : asymptotic relative efficiency(ARE) * asymptotic theory * emaculate mode * Me model * R-estimation * Reliabilty ratio(RR) Subject RIV: BB - Applied Statistics, Operational Research

  8. Extending the linear model with R generalized linear, mixed effects and nonparametric regression models

    CERN Document Server

    Faraway, Julian J

    2005-01-01

    Linear models are central to the practice of statistics and form the foundation of a vast range of statistical methodologies. Julian J. Faraway''s critically acclaimed Linear Models with R examined regression and analysis of variance, demonstrated the different methods available, and showed in which situations each one applies. Following in those footsteps, Extending the Linear Model with R surveys the techniques that grow from the regression model, presenting three extensions to that framework: generalized linear models (GLMs), mixed effect models, and nonparametric regression models. The author''s treatment is thoroughly modern and covers topics that include GLM diagnostics, generalized linear mixed models, trees, and even the use of neural networks in statistics. To demonstrate the interplay of theory and practice, throughout the book the author weaves the use of the R software environment to analyze the data of real examples, providing all of the R commands necessary to reproduce the analyses. All of the ...

  9. Bayesian Bandwidth Selection for a Nonparametric Regression Model with Mixed Types of Regressors

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xibin Zhang

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available This paper develops a sampling algorithm for bandwidth estimation in a nonparametric regression model with continuous and discrete regressors under an unknown error density. The error density is approximated by the kernel density estimator of the unobserved errors, while the regression function is estimated using the Nadaraya-Watson estimator admitting continuous and discrete regressors. We derive an approximate likelihood and posterior for bandwidth parameters, followed by a sampling algorithm. Simulation results show that the proposed approach typically leads to better accuracy of the resulting estimates than cross-validation, particularly for smaller sample sizes. This bandwidth estimation approach is applied to nonparametric regression model of the Australian All Ordinaries returns and the kernel density estimation of gross domestic product (GDP growth rates among the organisation for economic co-operation and development (OECD and non-OECD countries.

  10. Scalable Bayesian nonparametric regression via a Plackett-Luce model for conditional ranks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gray-Davies, Tristan; Holmes, Chris C.; Caron, François

    2018-01-01

    We present a novel Bayesian nonparametric regression model for covariates X and continuous response variable Y ∈ ℝ. The model is parametrized in terms of marginal distributions for Y and X and a regression function which tunes the stochastic ordering of the conditional distributions F (y|x). By adopting an approximate composite likelihood approach, we show that the resulting posterior inference can be decoupled for the separate components of the model. This procedure can scale to very large datasets and allows for the use of standard, existing, software from Bayesian nonparametric density estimation and Plackett-Luce ranking estimation to be applied. As an illustration, we show an application of our approach to a US Census dataset, with over 1,300,000 data points and more than 100 covariates. PMID:29623150

  11. Testing for constant nonparametric effects in general semiparametric regression models with interactions

    KAUST Repository

    Wei, Jiawei

    2011-07-01

    We consider the problem of testing for a constant nonparametric effect in a general semi-parametric regression model when there is the potential for interaction between the parametrically and nonparametrically modeled variables. The work was originally motivated by a unique testing problem in genetic epidemiology (Chatterjee, et al., 2006) that involved a typical generalized linear model but with an additional term reminiscent of the Tukey one-degree-of-freedom formulation, and their interest was in testing for main effects of the genetic variables, while gaining statistical power by allowing for a possible interaction between genes and the environment. Later work (Maity, et al., 2009) involved the possibility of modeling the environmental variable nonparametrically, but they focused on whether there was a parametric main effect for the genetic variables. In this paper, we consider the complementary problem, where the interest is in testing for the main effect of the nonparametrically modeled environmental variable. We derive a generalized likelihood ratio test for this hypothesis, show how to implement it, and provide evidence that our method can improve statistical power when compared to standard partially linear models with main effects only. We use the method for the primary purpose of analyzing data from a case-control study of colorectal adenoma.

  12. Testing discontinuities in nonparametric regression

    KAUST Repository

    Dai, Wenlin

    2017-01-19

    In nonparametric regression, it is often needed to detect whether there are jump discontinuities in the mean function. In this paper, we revisit the difference-based method in [13 H.-G. Müller and U. Stadtmüller, Discontinuous versus smooth regression, Ann. Stat. 27 (1999), pp. 299–337. doi: 10.1214/aos/1018031100

  13. Testing discontinuities in nonparametric regression

    KAUST Repository

    Dai, Wenlin; Zhou, Yuejin; Tong, Tiejun

    2017-01-01

    In nonparametric regression, it is often needed to detect whether there are jump discontinuities in the mean function. In this paper, we revisit the difference-based method in [13 H.-G. Müller and U. Stadtmüller, Discontinuous versus smooth regression, Ann. Stat. 27 (1999), pp. 299–337. doi: 10.1214/aos/1018031100

  14. A ¤nonparametric dynamic additive regression model for longitudinal data

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Martinussen, T.; Scheike, T. H.

    2000-01-01

    dynamic linear models, estimating equations, least squares, longitudinal data, nonparametric methods, partly conditional mean models, time-varying-coefficient models......dynamic linear models, estimating equations, least squares, longitudinal data, nonparametric methods, partly conditional mean models, time-varying-coefficient models...

  15. Comparison between linear and non-parametric regression models for genome-enabled prediction in wheat.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pérez-Rodríguez, Paulino; Gianola, Daniel; González-Camacho, Juan Manuel; Crossa, José; Manès, Yann; Dreisigacker, Susanne

    2012-12-01

    In genome-enabled prediction, parametric, semi-parametric, and non-parametric regression models have been used. This study assessed the predictive ability of linear and non-linear models using dense molecular markers. The linear models were linear on marker effects and included the Bayesian LASSO, Bayesian ridge regression, Bayes A, and Bayes B. The non-linear models (this refers to non-linearity on markers) were reproducing kernel Hilbert space (RKHS) regression, Bayesian regularized neural networks (BRNN), and radial basis function neural networks (RBFNN). These statistical models were compared using 306 elite wheat lines from CIMMYT genotyped with 1717 diversity array technology (DArT) markers and two traits, days to heading (DTH) and grain yield (GY), measured in each of 12 environments. It was found that the three non-linear models had better overall prediction accuracy than the linear regression specification. Results showed a consistent superiority of RKHS and RBFNN over the Bayesian LASSO, Bayesian ridge regression, Bayes A, and Bayes B models.

  16. Panel data specifications in nonparametric kernel regression

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Czekaj, Tomasz Gerard; Henningsen, Arne

    parametric panel data estimators to analyse the production technology of Polish crop farms. The results of our nonparametric kernel regressions generally differ from the estimates of the parametric models but they only slightly depend on the choice of the kernel functions. Based on economic reasoning, we...

  17. A menu-driven software package of Bayesian nonparametric (and parametric) mixed models for regression analysis and density estimation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karabatsos, George

    2017-02-01

    Most of applied statistics involves regression analysis of data. In practice, it is important to specify a regression model that has minimal assumptions which are not violated by data, to ensure that statistical inferences from the model are informative and not misleading. This paper presents a stand-alone and menu-driven software package, Bayesian Regression: Nonparametric and Parametric Models, constructed from MATLAB Compiler. Currently, this package gives the user a choice from 83 Bayesian models for data analysis. They include 47 Bayesian nonparametric (BNP) infinite-mixture regression models; 5 BNP infinite-mixture models for density estimation; and 31 normal random effects models (HLMs), including normal linear models. Each of the 78 regression models handles either a continuous, binary, or ordinal dependent variable, and can handle multi-level (grouped) data. All 83 Bayesian models can handle the analysis of weighted observations (e.g., for meta-analysis), and the analysis of left-censored, right-censored, and/or interval-censored data. Each BNP infinite-mixture model has a mixture distribution assigned one of various BNP prior distributions, including priors defined by either the Dirichlet process, Pitman-Yor process (including the normalized stable process), beta (two-parameter) process, normalized inverse-Gaussian process, geometric weights prior, dependent Dirichlet process, or the dependent infinite-probits prior. The software user can mouse-click to select a Bayesian model and perform data analysis via Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling. After the sampling completes, the software automatically opens text output that reports MCMC-based estimates of the model's posterior distribution and model predictive fit to the data. Additional text and/or graphical output can be generated by mouse-clicking other menu options. This includes output of MCMC convergence analyses, and estimates of the model's posterior predictive distribution, for selected

  18. Does the high–tech industry consistently reduce CO{sub 2} emissions? Results from nonparametric additive regression model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Xu, Bin [School of Statistics, Jiangxi University of Finance and Economics, Nanchang, Jiangxi 330013 (China); Research Center of Applied Statistics, Jiangxi University of Finance and Economics, Nanchang, Jiangxi 330013 (China); Lin, Boqiang, E-mail: bqlin@xmu.edu.cn [Collaborative Innovation Center for Energy Economics and Energy Policy, China Institute for Studies in Energy Policy, Xiamen University, Xiamen, Fujian 361005 (China)

    2017-03-15

    China is currently the world's largest carbon dioxide (CO{sub 2}) emitter. Moreover, total energy consumption and CO{sub 2} emissions in China will continue to increase due to the rapid growth of industrialization and urbanization. Therefore, vigorously developing the high–tech industry becomes an inevitable choice to reduce CO{sub 2} emissions at the moment or in the future. However, ignoring the existing nonlinear links between economic variables, most scholars use traditional linear models to explore the impact of the high–tech industry on CO{sub 2} emissions from an aggregate perspective. Few studies have focused on nonlinear relationships and regional differences in China. Based on panel data of 1998–2014, this study uses the nonparametric additive regression model to explore the nonlinear effect of the high–tech industry from a regional perspective. The estimated results show that the residual sum of squares (SSR) of the nonparametric additive regression model in the eastern, central and western regions are 0.693, 0.054 and 0.085 respectively, which are much less those that of the traditional linear regression model (3.158, 4.227 and 7.196). This verifies that the nonparametric additive regression model has a better fitting effect. Specifically, the high–tech industry produces an inverted “U–shaped” nonlinear impact on CO{sub 2} emissions in the eastern region, but a positive “U–shaped” nonlinear effect in the central and western regions. Therefore, the nonlinear impact of the high–tech industry on CO{sub 2} emissions in the three regions should be given adequate attention in developing effective abatement policies. - Highlights: • The nonlinear effect of the high–tech industry on CO{sub 2} emissions was investigated. • The high–tech industry yields an inverted “U–shaped” effect in the eastern region. • The high–tech industry has a positive “U–shaped” nonlinear effect in other regions. • The linear impact

  19. Implementation and evaluation of nonparametric regression procedures for sensitivity analysis of computationally demanding models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Storlie, Curtis B.; Swiler, Laura P.; Helton, Jon C.; Sallaberry, Cedric J.

    2009-01-01

    The analysis of many physical and engineering problems involves running complex computational models (simulation models, computer codes). With problems of this type, it is important to understand the relationships between the input variables (whose values are often imprecisely known) and the output. The goal of sensitivity analysis (SA) is to study this relationship and identify the most significant factors or variables affecting the results of the model. In this presentation, an improvement on existing methods for SA of complex computer models is described for use when the model is too computationally expensive for a standard Monte-Carlo analysis. In these situations, a meta-model or surrogate model can be used to estimate the necessary sensitivity index for each input. A sensitivity index is a measure of the variance in the response that is due to the uncertainty in an input. Most existing approaches to this problem either do not work well with a large number of input variables and/or they ignore the error involved in estimating a sensitivity index. Here, a new approach to sensitivity index estimation using meta-models and bootstrap confidence intervals is described that provides solutions to these drawbacks. Further, an efficient yet effective approach to incorporate this methodology into an actual SA is presented. Several simulated and real examples illustrate the utility of this approach. This framework can be extended to uncertainty analysis as well.

  20. Nonparametric Transfer Function Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Jun M.; Chen, Rong; Yao, Qiwei

    2009-01-01

    In this paper a class of nonparametric transfer function models is proposed to model nonlinear relationships between ‘input’ and ‘output’ time series. The transfer function is smooth with unknown functional forms, and the noise is assumed to be a stationary autoregressive-moving average (ARMA) process. The nonparametric transfer function is estimated jointly with the ARMA parameters. By modeling the correlation in the noise, the transfer function can be estimated more efficiently. The parsimonious ARMA structure improves the estimation efficiency in finite samples. The asymptotic properties of the estimators are investigated. The finite-sample properties are illustrated through simulations and one empirical example. PMID:20628584

  1. Bayesian nonparametric hierarchical modeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dunson, David B

    2009-04-01

    In biomedical research, hierarchical models are very widely used to accommodate dependence in multivariate and longitudinal data and for borrowing of information across data from different sources. A primary concern in hierarchical modeling is sensitivity to parametric assumptions, such as linearity and normality of the random effects. Parametric assumptions on latent variable distributions can be challenging to check and are typically unwarranted, given available prior knowledge. This article reviews some recent developments in Bayesian nonparametric methods motivated by complex, multivariate and functional data collected in biomedical studies. The author provides a brief review of flexible parametric approaches relying on finite mixtures and latent class modeling. Dirichlet process mixture models are motivated by the need to generalize these approaches to avoid assuming a fixed finite number of classes. Focusing on an epidemiology application, the author illustrates the practical utility and potential of nonparametric Bayes methods.

  2. Nonparametric instrumental regression with non-convex constraints

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Grasmair, M; Scherzer, O; Vanhems, A

    2013-01-01

    This paper considers the nonparametric regression model with an additive error that is dependent on the explanatory variables. As is common in empirical studies in epidemiology and economics, it also supposes that valid instrumental variables are observed. A classical example in microeconomics considers the consumer demand function as a function of the price of goods and the income, both variables often considered as endogenous. In this framework, the economic theory also imposes shape restrictions on the demand function, such as integrability conditions. Motivated by this illustration in microeconomics, we study an estimator of a nonparametric constrained regression function using instrumental variables by means of Tikhonov regularization. We derive rates of convergence for the regularized model both in a deterministic and stochastic setting under the assumption that the true regression function satisfies a projected source condition including, because of the non-convexity of the imposed constraints, an additional smallness condition. (paper)

  3. Nonparametric instrumental regression with non-convex constraints

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grasmair, M.; Scherzer, O.; Vanhems, A.

    2013-03-01

    This paper considers the nonparametric regression model with an additive error that is dependent on the explanatory variables. As is common in empirical studies in epidemiology and economics, it also supposes that valid instrumental variables are observed. A classical example in microeconomics considers the consumer demand function as a function of the price of goods and the income, both variables often considered as endogenous. In this framework, the economic theory also imposes shape restrictions on the demand function, such as integrability conditions. Motivated by this illustration in microeconomics, we study an estimator of a nonparametric constrained regression function using instrumental variables by means of Tikhonov regularization. We derive rates of convergence for the regularized model both in a deterministic and stochastic setting under the assumption that the true regression function satisfies a projected source condition including, because of the non-convexity of the imposed constraints, an additional smallness condition.

  4. Quantal Response: Nonparametric Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    2017-01-01

    capture the behavior of observed phenomena. Higher-order polynomial and finite-dimensional spline basis models allow for more complicated responses as the...flexibility as these are nonparametric (not constrained to any particular functional form). These should be useful in identifying nonstandard behavior via... deviance ∆ = −2 log(Lreduced/Lfull) is defined in terms of the likelihood function L. For normal error, Lfull = 1, and based on Eq. A-2, we have log

  5. Data analysis and approximate models model choice, location-scale, analysis of variance, nonparametric regression and image analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Davies, Patrick Laurie

    2014-01-01

    Introduction IntroductionApproximate Models Notation Two Modes of Statistical AnalysisTowards One Mode of Analysis Approximation, Randomness, Chaos, Determinism ApproximationA Concept of Approximation Approximation Approximating a Data Set by a Model Approximation Regions Functionals and EquivarianceRegularization and Optimality Metrics and DiscrepanciesStrong and Weak Topologies On Being (almost) Honest Simulations and Tables Degree of Approximation and p-values ScalesStability of Analysis The Choice of En(α, P) Independence Procedures, Approximation and VaguenessDiscrete Models The Empirical Density Metrics and Discrepancies The Total Variation Metric The Kullback-Leibler and Chi-Squared Discrepancies The Po(λ) ModelThe b(k, p) and nb(k, p) Models The Flying Bomb Data The Student Study Times Data OutliersOutliers, Data Analysis and Models Breakdown Points and Equivariance Identifying Outliers and Breakdown Outliers in Multivariate Data Outliers in Linear Regression Outliers in Structured Data The Location...

  6. Nonparametric Regression Estimation for Multivariate Null Recurrent Processes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Biqing Cai

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available This paper discusses nonparametric kernel regression with the regressor being a \\(d\\-dimensional \\(\\beta\\-null recurrent process in presence of conditional heteroscedasticity. We show that the mean function estimator is consistent with convergence rate \\(\\sqrt{n(Th^{d}}\\, where \\(n(T\\ is the number of regenerations for a \\(\\beta\\-null recurrent process and the limiting distribution (with proper normalization is normal. Furthermore, we show that the two-step estimator for the volatility function is consistent. The finite sample performance of the estimate is quite reasonable when the leave-one-out cross validation method is used for bandwidth selection. We apply the proposed method to study the relationship of Federal funds rate with 3-month and 5-year T-bill rates and discover the existence of nonlinearity of the relationship. Furthermore, the in-sample and out-of-sample performance of the nonparametric model is far better than the linear model.

  7. Nonparametric combinatorial sequence models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wauthier, Fabian L; Jordan, Michael I; Jojic, Nebojsa

    2011-11-01

    This work considers biological sequences that exhibit combinatorial structures in their composition: groups of positions of the aligned sequences are "linked" and covary as one unit across sequences. If multiple such groups exist, complex interactions can emerge between them. Sequences of this kind arise frequently in biology but methodologies for analyzing them are still being developed. This article presents a nonparametric prior on sequences which allows combinatorial structures to emerge and which induces a posterior distribution over factorized sequence representations. We carry out experiments on three biological sequence families which indicate that combinatorial structures are indeed present and that combinatorial sequence models can more succinctly describe them than simpler mixture models. We conclude with an application to MHC binding prediction which highlights the utility of the posterior distribution over sequence representations induced by the prior. By integrating out the posterior, our method compares favorably to leading binding predictors.

  8. The Use of Nonparametric Kernel Regression Methods in Econometric Production Analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Czekaj, Tomasz Gerard

    and nonparametric estimations of production functions in order to evaluate the optimal firm size. The second paper discusses the use of parametric and nonparametric regression methods to estimate panel data regression models. The third paper analyses production risk, price uncertainty, and farmers' risk preferences...... within a nonparametric panel data regression framework. The fourth paper analyses the technical efficiency of dairy farms with environmental output using nonparametric kernel regression in a semiparametric stochastic frontier analysis. The results provided in this PhD thesis show that nonparametric......This PhD thesis addresses one of the fundamental problems in applied econometric analysis, namely the econometric estimation of regression functions. The conventional approach to regression analysis is the parametric approach, which requires the researcher to specify the form of the regression...

  9. Nonparametric additive regression for repeatedly measured data

    KAUST Repository

    Carroll, R. J.

    2009-05-20

    We develop an easily computed smooth backfitting algorithm for additive model fitting in repeated measures problems. Our methodology easily copes with various settings, such as when some covariates are the same over repeated response measurements. We allow for a working covariance matrix for the regression errors, showing that our method is most efficient when the correct covariance matrix is used. The component functions achieve the known asymptotic variance lower bound for the scalar argument case. Smooth backfitting also leads directly to design-independent biases in the local linear case. Simulations show our estimator has smaller variance than the usual kernel estimator. This is also illustrated by an example from nutritional epidemiology. © 2009 Biometrika Trust.

  10. Examining the nonparametric effect of drivers' age in rear-end accidents through an additive logistic regression model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ma, Lu; Yan, Xuedong

    2014-06-01

    This study seeks to inspect the nonparametric characteristics connecting the age of the driver to the relative risk of being an at-fault vehicle, in order to discover a more precise and smooth pattern of age impact, which has commonly been neglected in past studies. Records of drivers in two-vehicle rear-end collisions are selected from the general estimates system (GES) 2011 dataset. These extracted observations in fact constitute inherently matched driver pairs under certain matching variables including weather conditions, pavement conditions and road geometry design characteristics that are shared by pairs of drivers in rear-end accidents. The introduced data structure is able to guarantee that the variance of the response variable will not depend on the matching variables and hence provides a high power of statistical modeling. The estimation results exhibit a smooth cubic spline function for examining the nonlinear relationship between the age of the driver and the log odds of being at fault in a rear-end accident. The results are presented with respect to the main effect of age, the interaction effect between age and sex, and the effects of age under different scenarios of pre-crash actions by the leading vehicle. Compared to the conventional specification in which age is categorized into several predefined groups, the proposed method is more flexible and able to produce quantitatively explicit results. First, it confirms the U-shaped pattern of the age effect, and further shows that the risks of young and old drivers change rapidly with age. Second, the interaction effects between age and sex show that female and male drivers behave differently in rear-end accidents. Third, it is found that the pattern of age impact varies according to the type of pre-crash actions exhibited by the leading vehicle. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  11. Nonparametric additive regression for repeatedly measured data

    KAUST Repository

    Carroll, R. J.; Maity, A.; Mammen, E.; Yu, K.

    2009-01-01

    We develop an easily computed smooth backfitting algorithm for additive model fitting in repeated measures problems. Our methodology easily copes with various settings, such as when some covariates are the same over repeated response measurements

  12. Comparing parametric and nonparametric regression methods for panel data

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Czekaj, Tomasz Gerard; Henningsen, Arne

    We investigate and compare the suitability of parametric and non-parametric stochastic regression methods for analysing production technologies and the optimal firm size. Our theoretical analysis shows that the most commonly used functional forms in empirical production analysis, Cobb......-Douglas and Translog, are unsuitable for analysing the optimal firm size. We show that the Translog functional form implies an implausible linear relationship between the (logarithmic) firm size and the elasticity of scale, where the slope is artificially related to the substitutability between the inputs....... The practical applicability of the parametric and non-parametric regression methods is scrutinised and compared by an empirical example: we analyse the production technology and investigate the optimal size of Polish crop farms based on a firm-level balanced panel data set. A nonparametric specification test...

  13. On the robust nonparametric regression estimation for a functional regressor

    OpenAIRE

    Azzedine , Nadjia; Laksaci , Ali; Ould-Saïd , Elias

    2009-01-01

    On the robust nonparametric regression estimation for a functional regressor correspondance: Corresponding author. (Ould-Said, Elias) (Azzedine, Nadjia) (Laksaci, Ali) (Ould-Said, Elias) Departement de Mathematiques--> , Univ. Djillali Liabes--> , BP 89--> , 22000 Sidi Bel Abbes--> - ALGERIA (Azzedine, Nadjia) Departement de Mathema...

  14. Parametric and Non-Parametric System Modelling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Henrik Aalborg

    1999-01-01

    the focus is on combinations of parametric and non-parametric methods of regression. This combination can be in terms of additive models where e.g. one or more non-parametric term is added to a linear regression model. It can also be in terms of conditional parametric models where the coefficients...... considered. It is shown that adaptive estimation in conditional parametric models can be performed by combining the well known methods of local polynomial regression and recursive least squares with exponential forgetting. The approach used for estimation in conditional parametric models also highlights how...... networks is included. In this paper, neural networks are used for predicting the electricity production of a wind farm. The results are compared with results obtained using an adaptively estimated ARX-model. Finally, two papers on stochastic differential equations are included. In the first paper, among...

  15. Nonparametric regression using the concept of minimum energy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Williams, Mike

    2011-01-01

    It has recently been shown that an unbinned distance-based statistic, the energy, can be used to construct an extremely powerful nonparametric multivariate two sample goodness-of-fit test. An extension to this method that makes it possible to perform nonparametric regression using multiple multivariate data sets is presented in this paper. The technique, which is based on the concept of minimizing the energy of the system, permits determination of parameters of interest without the need for parametric expressions of the parent distributions of the data sets. The application and performance of this new method is discussed in the context of some simple example analyses.

  16. Nonparametric correlation models for portfolio allocation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Aslanidis, Nektarios; Casas, Isabel

    2013-01-01

    This article proposes time-varying nonparametric and semiparametric estimators of the conditional cross-correlation matrix in the context of portfolio allocation. Simulations results show that the nonparametric and semiparametric models are best in DGPs with substantial variability or structural ...... currencies. Results show the nonparametric model generally dominates the others when evaluating in-sample. However, the semiparametric model is best for out-of-sample analysis....

  17. A nonparametric mixture model for cure rate estimation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peng, Y; Dear, K B

    2000-03-01

    Nonparametric methods have attracted less attention than their parametric counterparts for cure rate analysis. In this paper, we study a general nonparametric mixture model. The proportional hazards assumption is employed in modeling the effect of covariates on the failure time of patients who are not cured. The EM algorithm, the marginal likelihood approach, and multiple imputations are employed to estimate parameters of interest in the model. This model extends models and improves estimation methods proposed by other researchers. It also extends Cox's proportional hazards regression model by allowing a proportion of event-free patients and investigating covariate effects on that proportion. The model and its estimation method are investigated by simulations. An application to breast cancer data, including comparisons with previous analyses using a parametric model and an existing nonparametric model by other researchers, confirms the conclusions from the parametric model but not those from the existing nonparametric model.

  18. Nonparametric Bayesian Modeling of Complex Networks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schmidt, Mikkel Nørgaard; Mørup, Morten

    2013-01-01

    an infinite mixture model as running example, we go through the steps of deriving the model as an infinite limit of a finite parametric model, inferring the model parameters by Markov chain Monte Carlo, and checking the model?s fit and predictive performance. We explain how advanced nonparametric models......Modeling structure in complex networks using Bayesian nonparametrics makes it possible to specify flexible model structures and infer the adequate model complexity from the observed data. This article provides a gentle introduction to nonparametric Bayesian modeling of complex networks: Using...

  19. CADDIS Volume 4. Data Analysis: PECBO Appendix - R Scripts for Non-Parametric Regressions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Script for computing nonparametric regression analysis. Overview of using scripts to infer environmental conditions from biological observations, statistically estimating species-environment relationships, statistical scripts.

  20. Bootstrap Prediction Intervals in Non-Parametric Regression with Applications to Anomaly Detection

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kumar, Sricharan; Srivistava, Ashok N.

    2012-01-01

    Prediction intervals provide a measure of the probable interval in which the outputs of a regression model can be expected to occur. Subsequently, these prediction intervals can be used to determine if the observed output is anomalous or not, conditioned on the input. In this paper, a procedure for determining prediction intervals for outputs of nonparametric regression models using bootstrap methods is proposed. Bootstrap methods allow for a non-parametric approach to computing prediction intervals with no specific assumptions about the sampling distribution of the noise or the data. The asymptotic fidelity of the proposed prediction intervals is theoretically proved. Subsequently, the validity of the bootstrap based prediction intervals is illustrated via simulations. Finally, the bootstrap prediction intervals are applied to the problem of anomaly detection on aviation data.

  1. A nonparametric approach to calculate critical micelle concentrations: the local polynomial regression method

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lopez Fontan, J.L.; Costa, J.; Ruso, J.M.; Prieto, G. [Dept. of Applied Physics, Univ. of Santiago de Compostela, Santiago de Compostela (Spain); Sarmiento, F. [Dept. of Mathematics, Faculty of Informatics, Univ. of A Coruna, A Coruna (Spain)

    2004-02-01

    The application of a statistical method, the local polynomial regression method, (LPRM), based on a nonparametric estimation of the regression function to determine the critical micelle concentration (cmc) is presented. The method is extremely flexible because it does not impose any parametric model on the subjacent structure of the data but rather allows the data to speak for themselves. Good concordance of cmc values with those obtained by other methods was found for systems in which the variation of a measured physical property with concentration showed an abrupt change. When this variation was slow, discrepancies between the values obtained by LPRM and others methods were found. (orig.)

  2. Predicting Market Impact Costs Using Nonparametric Machine Learning Models.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Saerom Park

    Full Text Available Market impact cost is the most significant portion of implicit transaction costs that can reduce the overall transaction cost, although it cannot be measured directly. In this paper, we employed the state-of-the-art nonparametric machine learning models: neural networks, Bayesian neural network, Gaussian process, and support vector regression, to predict market impact cost accurately and to provide the predictive model that is versatile in the number of variables. We collected a large amount of real single transaction data of US stock market from Bloomberg Terminal and generated three independent input variables. As a result, most nonparametric machine learning models outperformed a-state-of-the-art benchmark parametric model such as I-star model in four error measures. Although these models encounter certain difficulties in separating the permanent and temporary cost directly, nonparametric machine learning models can be good alternatives in reducing transaction costs by considerably improving in prediction performance.

  3. Predicting Market Impact Costs Using Nonparametric Machine Learning Models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Park, Saerom; Lee, Jaewook; Son, Youngdoo

    2016-01-01

    Market impact cost is the most significant portion of implicit transaction costs that can reduce the overall transaction cost, although it cannot be measured directly. In this paper, we employed the state-of-the-art nonparametric machine learning models: neural networks, Bayesian neural network, Gaussian process, and support vector regression, to predict market impact cost accurately and to provide the predictive model that is versatile in the number of variables. We collected a large amount of real single transaction data of US stock market from Bloomberg Terminal and generated three independent input variables. As a result, most nonparametric machine learning models outperformed a-state-of-the-art benchmark parametric model such as I-star model in four error measures. Although these models encounter certain difficulties in separating the permanent and temporary cost directly, nonparametric machine learning models can be good alternatives in reducing transaction costs by considerably improving in prediction performance.

  4. Bayesian Nonparametric Regression Analysis of Data with Random Effects Covariates from Longitudinal Measurements

    KAUST Repository

    Ryu, Duchwan

    2010-09-28

    We consider nonparametric regression analysis in a generalized linear model (GLM) framework for data with covariates that are the subject-specific random effects of longitudinal measurements. The usual assumption that the effects of the longitudinal covariate processes are linear in the GLM may be unrealistic and if this happens it can cast doubt on the inference of observed covariate effects. Allowing the regression functions to be unknown, we propose to apply Bayesian nonparametric methods including cubic smoothing splines or P-splines for the possible nonlinearity and use an additive model in this complex setting. To improve computational efficiency, we propose the use of data-augmentation schemes. The approach allows flexible covariance structures for the random effects and within-subject measurement errors of the longitudinal processes. The posterior model space is explored through a Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampler. The proposed methods are illustrated and compared to other approaches, the "naive" approach and the regression calibration, via simulations and by an application that investigates the relationship between obesity in adulthood and childhood growth curves. © 2010, The International Biometric Society.

  5. Nonparametric estimation in models for unobservable heterogeneity

    OpenAIRE

    Hohmann, Daniel

    2014-01-01

    Nonparametric models which allow for data with unobservable heterogeneity are studied. The first publication introduces new estimators and their asymptotic properties for conditional mixture models. The second publication considers estimation of a function from noisy observations of its Radon transform in a Gaussian white noise model.

  6. Testing the equality of nonparametric regression curves based on ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Abstract. In this work we propose a new methodology for the comparison of two regression functions f1 and f2 in the case of homoscedastic error structure and a fixed design. Our approach is based on the empirical Fourier coefficients of the regression functions f1 and f2 respectively. As our main results we obtain the ...

  7. Supremum Norm Posterior Contraction and Credible Sets for Nonparametric Multivariate Regression

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Yoo, W.W.; Ghosal, S

    2016-01-01

    In the setting of nonparametric multivariate regression with unknown error variance, we study asymptotic properties of a Bayesian method for estimating a regression function f and its mixed partial derivatives. We use a random series of tensor product of B-splines with normal basis coefficients as a

  8. Nonparametric Bayes Modeling of Multivariate Categorical Data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dunson, David B; Xing, Chuanhua

    2012-01-01

    Modeling of multivariate unordered categorical (nominal) data is a challenging problem, particularly in high dimensions and cases in which one wishes to avoid strong assumptions about the dependence structure. Commonly used approaches rely on the incorporation of latent Gaussian random variables or parametric latent class models. The goal of this article is to develop a nonparametric Bayes approach, which defines a prior with full support on the space of distributions for multiple unordered categorical variables. This support condition ensures that we are not restricting the dependence structure a priori. We show this can be accomplished through a Dirichlet process mixture of product multinomial distributions, which is also a convenient form for posterior computation. Methods for nonparametric testing of violations of independence are proposed, and the methods are applied to model positional dependence within transcription factor binding motifs.

  9. Network structure exploration via Bayesian nonparametric models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chen, Y; Wang, X L; Xiang, X; Tang, B Z; Bu, J Z

    2015-01-01

    Complex networks provide a powerful mathematical representation of complex systems in nature and society. To understand complex networks, it is crucial to explore their internal structures, also called structural regularities. The task of network structure exploration is to determine how many groups there are in a complex network and how to group the nodes of the network. Most existing structure exploration methods need to specify either a group number or a certain type of structure when they are applied to a network. In the real world, however, the group number and also the certain type of structure that a network has are usually unknown in advance. To explore structural regularities in complex networks automatically, without any prior knowledge of the group number or the certain type of structure, we extend a probabilistic mixture model that can handle networks with any type of structure but needs to specify a group number using Bayesian nonparametric theory. We also propose a novel Bayesian nonparametric model, called the Bayesian nonparametric mixture (BNPM) model. Experiments conducted on a large number of networks with different structures show that the BNPM model is able to explore structural regularities in networks automatically with a stable, state-of-the-art performance. (paper)

  10. Nonparametric Mixture Models for Supervised Image Parcellation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sabuncu, Mert R; Yeo, B T Thomas; Van Leemput, Koen; Fischl, Bruce; Golland, Polina

    2009-09-01

    We present a nonparametric, probabilistic mixture model for the supervised parcellation of images. The proposed model yields segmentation algorithms conceptually similar to the recently developed label fusion methods, which register a new image with each training image separately. Segmentation is achieved via the fusion of transferred manual labels. We show that in our framework various settings of a model parameter yield algorithms that use image intensity information differently in determining the weight of a training subject during fusion. One particular setting computes a single, global weight per training subject, whereas another setting uses locally varying weights when fusing the training data. The proposed nonparametric parcellation approach capitalizes on recently developed fast and robust pairwise image alignment tools. The use of multiple registrations allows the algorithm to be robust to occasional registration failures. We report experiments on 39 volumetric brain MRI scans with expert manual labels for the white matter, cerebral cortex, ventricles and subcortical structures. The results demonstrate that the proposed nonparametric segmentation framework yields significantly better segmentation than state-of-the-art algorithms.

  11. Multivariate nonparametric regression and visualization with R and applications to finance

    CERN Document Server

    Klemelä, Jussi

    2014-01-01

    A modern approach to statistical learning and its applications through visualization methods With a unique and innovative presentation, Multivariate Nonparametric Regression and Visualization provides readers with the core statistical concepts to obtain complete and accurate predictions when given a set of data. Focusing on nonparametric methods to adapt to the multiple types of data generatingmechanisms, the book begins with an overview of classification and regression. The book then introduces and examines various tested and proven visualization techniques for learning samples and functio

  12. Nonparametric Methods in Astronomy: Think, Regress, Observe—Pick Any Three

    Science.gov (United States)

    Steinhardt, Charles L.; Jermyn, Adam S.

    2018-02-01

    Telescopes are much more expensive than astronomers, so it is essential to minimize required sample sizes by using the most data-efficient statistical methods possible. However, the most commonly used model-independent techniques for finding the relationship between two variables in astronomy are flawed. In the worst case they can lead without warning to subtly yet catastrophically wrong results, and even in the best case they require more data than necessary. Unfortunately, there is no single best technique for nonparametric regression. Instead, we provide a guide for how astronomers can choose the best method for their specific problem and provide a python library with both wrappers for the most useful existing algorithms and implementations of two new algorithms developed here.

  13. On the Choice of Difference Sequence in a Unified Framework for Variance Estimation in Nonparametric Regression

    KAUST Repository

    Dai, Wenlin; Tong, Tiejun; Zhu, Lixing

    2017-01-01

    Difference-based methods do not require estimating the mean function in nonparametric regression and are therefore popular in practice. In this paper, we propose a unified framework for variance estimation that combines the linear regression method with the higher-order difference estimators systematically. The unified framework has greatly enriched the existing literature on variance estimation that includes most existing estimators as special cases. More importantly, the unified framework has also provided a smart way to solve the challenging difference sequence selection problem that remains a long-standing controversial issue in nonparametric regression for several decades. Using both theory and simulations, we recommend to use the ordinary difference sequence in the unified framework, no matter if the sample size is small or if the signal-to-noise ratio is large. Finally, to cater for the demands of the application, we have developed a unified R package, named VarED, that integrates the existing difference-based estimators and the unified estimators in nonparametric regression and have made it freely available in the R statistical program http://cran.r-project.org/web/packages/.

  14. On the Choice of Difference Sequence in a Unified Framework for Variance Estimation in Nonparametric Regression

    KAUST Repository

    Dai, Wenlin

    2017-09-01

    Difference-based methods do not require estimating the mean function in nonparametric regression and are therefore popular in practice. In this paper, we propose a unified framework for variance estimation that combines the linear regression method with the higher-order difference estimators systematically. The unified framework has greatly enriched the existing literature on variance estimation that includes most existing estimators as special cases. More importantly, the unified framework has also provided a smart way to solve the challenging difference sequence selection problem that remains a long-standing controversial issue in nonparametric regression for several decades. Using both theory and simulations, we recommend to use the ordinary difference sequence in the unified framework, no matter if the sample size is small or if the signal-to-noise ratio is large. Finally, to cater for the demands of the application, we have developed a unified R package, named VarED, that integrates the existing difference-based estimators and the unified estimators in nonparametric regression and have made it freely available in the R statistical program http://cran.r-project.org/web/packages/.

  15. Bootstrap-based procedures for inference in nonparametric receiver-operating characteristic curve regression analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodríguez-Álvarez, María Xosé; Roca-Pardiñas, Javier; Cadarso-Suárez, Carmen; Tahoces, Pablo G

    2018-03-01

    Prior to using a diagnostic test in a routine clinical setting, the rigorous evaluation of its diagnostic accuracy is essential. The receiver-operating characteristic curve is the measure of accuracy most widely used for continuous diagnostic tests. However, the possible impact of extra information about the patient (or even the environment) on diagnostic accuracy also needs to be assessed. In this paper, we focus on an estimator for the covariate-specific receiver-operating characteristic curve based on direct regression modelling and nonparametric smoothing techniques. This approach defines the class of generalised additive models for the receiver-operating characteristic curve. The main aim of the paper is to offer new inferential procedures for testing the effect of covariates on the conditional receiver-operating characteristic curve within the above-mentioned class. Specifically, two different bootstrap-based tests are suggested to check (a) the possible effect of continuous covariates on the receiver-operating characteristic curve and (b) the presence of factor-by-curve interaction terms. The validity of the proposed bootstrap-based procedures is supported by simulations. To facilitate the application of these new procedures in practice, an R-package, known as npROCRegression, is provided and briefly described. Finally, data derived from a computer-aided diagnostic system for the automatic detection of tumour masses in breast cancer is analysed.

  16. Investigating the complex relationship between in situ Southern Ocean pCO2 and its ocean physics and biogeochemical drivers using a nonparametric regression approach

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Pretorius, W

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available the relationship more accurately in terms of MSE, RMSE and MAE, than a standard parametric approach (multiple linear regression). These results provide a platform for using the developed nonparametric regression model based on in situ measurements to predict p...

  17. Subpixel Snow Cover Mapping from MODIS Data by Nonparametric Regression Splines

    Science.gov (United States)

    Akyurek, Z.; Kuter, S.; Weber, G. W.

    2016-12-01

    Spatial extent of snow cover is often considered as one of the key parameters in climatological, hydrological and ecological modeling due to its energy storage, high reflectance in the visible and NIR regions of the electromagnetic spectrum, significant heat capacity and insulating properties. A significant challenge in snow mapping by remote sensing (RS) is the trade-off between the temporal and spatial resolution of satellite imageries. In order to tackle this issue, machine learning-based subpixel snow mapping methods, like Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs), from low or moderate resolution images have been proposed. Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines (MARS) is a nonparametric regression tool that can build flexible models for high dimensional and complex nonlinear data. Although MARS is not often employed in RS, it has various successful implementations such as estimation of vertical total electron content in ionosphere, atmospheric correction and classification of satellite images. This study is the first attempt in RS to evaluate the applicability of MARS for subpixel snow cover mapping from MODIS data. Total 16 MODIS-Landsat ETM+ image pairs taken over European Alps between March 2000 and April 2003 were used in the study. MODIS top-of-atmospheric reflectance, NDSI, NDVI and land cover classes were used as predictor variables. Cloud-covered, cloud shadow, water and bad-quality pixels were excluded from further analysis by a spatial mask. MARS models were trained and validated by using reference fractional snow cover (FSC) maps generated from higher spatial resolution Landsat ETM+ binary snow cover maps. A multilayer feed-forward ANN with one hidden layer trained with backpropagation was also developed. The mutual comparison of obtained MARS and ANN models was accomplished on independent test areas. The MARS model performed better than the ANN model with an average RMSE of 0.1288 over the independent test areas; whereas the average RMSE of the ANN model

  18. A Structural Labor Supply Model with Nonparametric Preferences

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Soest, A.H.O.; Das, J.W.M.; Gong, X.

    2000-01-01

    Nonparametric techniques are usually seen as a statistic device for data description and exploration, and not as a tool for estimating models with a richer economic structure, which are often required for policy analysis.This paper presents an example where nonparametric flexibility can be attained

  19. Mixture of Regression Models with Single-Index

    OpenAIRE

    Xiang, Sijia; Yao, Weixin

    2016-01-01

    In this article, we propose a class of semiparametric mixture regression models with single-index. We argue that many recently proposed semiparametric/nonparametric mixture regression models can be considered special cases of the proposed model. However, unlike existing semiparametric mixture regression models, the new pro- posed model can easily incorporate multivariate predictors into the nonparametric components. Backfitting estimates and the corresponding algorithms have been proposed for...

  20. REGRES: A FORTRAN-77 program to calculate nonparametric and ``structural'' parametric solutions to bivariate regression equations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rock, N. M. S.; Duffy, T. R.

    REGRES allows a range of regression equations to be calculated for paired sets of data values in which both variables are subject to error (i.e. neither is the "independent" variable). Nonparametric regressions, based on medians of all possible pairwise slopes and intercepts, are treated in detail. Estimated slopes and intercepts are output, along with confidence limits, Spearman and Kendall rank correlation coefficients. Outliers can be rejected with user-determined stringency. Parametric regressions can be calculated for any value of λ (the ratio of the variances of the random errors for y and x)—including: (1) major axis ( λ = 1); (2) reduced major axis ( λ = variance of y/variance of x); (3) Y on Xλ = infinity; or (4) X on Y ( λ = 0) solutions. Pearson linear correlation coefficients also are output. REGRES provides an alternative to conventional isochron assessment techniques where bivariate normal errors cannot be assumed, or weighting methods are inappropriate.

  1. Regression modeling methods, theory, and computation with SAS

    CERN Document Server

    Panik, Michael

    2009-01-01

    Regression Modeling: Methods, Theory, and Computation with SAS provides an introduction to a diverse assortment of regression techniques using SAS to solve a wide variety of regression problems. The author fully documents the SAS programs and thoroughly explains the output produced by the programs.The text presents the popular ordinary least squares (OLS) approach before introducing many alternative regression methods. It covers nonparametric regression, logistic regression (including Poisson regression), Bayesian regression, robust regression, fuzzy regression, random coefficients regression,

  2. DPpackage: Bayesian Semi- and Nonparametric Modeling in R

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alejandro Jara

    2011-04-01

    Full Text Available Data analysis sometimes requires the relaxation of parametric assumptions in order to gain modeling flexibility and robustness against mis-specification of the probability model. In the Bayesian context, this is accomplished by placing a prior distribution on a function space, such as the space of all probability distributions or the space of all regression functions. Unfortunately, posterior distributions ranging over function spaces are highly complex and hence sampling methods play a key role. This paper provides an introduction to a simple, yet comprehensive, set of programs for the implementation of some Bayesian nonparametric and semiparametric models in R, DPpackage. Currently, DPpackage includes models for marginal and conditional density estimation, receiver operating characteristic curve analysis, interval-censored data, binary regression data, item response data, longitudinal and clustered data using generalized linear mixed models, and regression data using generalized additive models. The package also contains functions to compute pseudo-Bayes factors for model comparison and for eliciting the precision parameter of the Dirichlet process prior, and a general purpose Metropolis sampling algorithm. To maximize computational efficiency, the actual sampling for each model is carried out using compiled C, C++ or Fortran code.

  3. Effect on Prediction when Modeling Covariates in Bayesian Nonparametric Models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cruz-Marcelo, Alejandro; Rosner, Gary L; Müller, Peter; Stewart, Clinton F

    2013-04-01

    In biomedical research, it is often of interest to characterize biologic processes giving rise to observations and to make predictions of future observations. Bayesian nonparametric methods provide a means for carrying out Bayesian inference making as few assumptions about restrictive parametric models as possible. There are several proposals in the literature for extending Bayesian nonparametric models to include dependence on covariates. Limited attention, however, has been directed to the following two aspects. In this article, we examine the effect on fitting and predictive performance of incorporating covariates in a class of Bayesian nonparametric models by one of two primary ways: either in the weights or in the locations of a discrete random probability measure. We show that different strategies for incorporating continuous covariates in Bayesian nonparametric models can result in big differences when used for prediction, even though they lead to otherwise similar posterior inferences. When one needs the predictive density, as in optimal design, and this density is a mixture, it is better to make the weights depend on the covariates. We demonstrate these points via a simulated data example and in an application in which one wants to determine the optimal dose of an anticancer drug used in pediatric oncology.

  4. Testing and Estimating Shape-Constrained Nonparametric Density and Regression in the Presence of Measurement Error

    KAUST Repository

    Carroll, Raymond J.

    2011-03-01

    In many applications we can expect that, or are interested to know if, a density function or a regression curve satisfies some specific shape constraints. For example, when the explanatory variable, X, represents the value taken by a treatment or dosage, the conditional mean of the response, Y , is often anticipated to be a monotone function of X. Indeed, if this regression mean is not monotone (in the appropriate direction) then the medical or commercial value of the treatment is likely to be significantly curtailed, at least for values of X that lie beyond the point at which monotonicity fails. In the case of a density, common shape constraints include log-concavity and unimodality. If we can correctly guess the shape of a curve, then nonparametric estimators can be improved by taking this information into account. Addressing such problems requires a method for testing the hypothesis that the curve of interest satisfies a shape constraint, and, if the conclusion of the test is positive, a technique for estimating the curve subject to the constraint. Nonparametric methodology for solving these problems already exists, but only in cases where the covariates are observed precisely. However in many problems, data can only be observed with measurement errors, and the methods employed in the error-free case typically do not carry over to this error context. In this paper we develop a novel approach to hypothesis testing and function estimation under shape constraints, which is valid in the context of measurement errors. Our method is based on tilting an estimator of the density or the regression mean until it satisfies the shape constraint, and we take as our test statistic the distance through which it is tilted. Bootstrap methods are used to calibrate the test. The constrained curve estimators that we develop are also based on tilting, and in that context our work has points of contact with methodology in the error-free case.

  5. Semiparametric Mixtures of Regressions with Single-index for Model Based Clustering

    OpenAIRE

    Xiang, Sijia; Yao, Weixin

    2017-01-01

    In this article, we propose two classes of semiparametric mixture regression models with single-index for model based clustering. Unlike many semiparametric/nonparametric mixture regression models that can only be applied to low dimensional predictors, the new semiparametric models can easily incorporate high dimensional predictors into the nonparametric components. The proposed models are very general, and many of the recently proposed semiparametric/nonparametric mixture regression models a...

  6. The Support Reduction Algorithm for Computing Non-Parametric Function Estimates in Mixture Models

    OpenAIRE

    GROENEBOOM, PIET; JONGBLOED, GEURT; WELLNER, JON A.

    2008-01-01

    In this paper, we study an algorithm (which we call the support reduction algorithm) that can be used to compute non-parametric M-estimators in mixture models. The algorithm is compared with natural competitors in the context of convex regression and the ‘Aspect problem’ in quantum physics.

  7. A local non-parametric model for trade sign inference

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blazejewski, Adam; Coggins, Richard

    2005-03-01

    We investigate a regularity in market order submission strategies for 12 stocks with large market capitalization on the Australian Stock Exchange. The regularity is evidenced by a predictable relationship between the trade sign (trade initiator), size of the trade, and the contents of the limit order book before the trade. We demonstrate this predictability by developing an empirical inference model to classify trades into buyer-initiated and seller-initiated. The model employs a local non-parametric method, k-nearest neighbor, which in the past was used successfully for chaotic time series prediction. The k-nearest neighbor with three predictor variables achieves an average out-of-sample classification accuracy of 71.40%, compared to 63.32% for the linear logistic regression with seven predictor variables. The result suggests that a non-linear approach may produce a more parsimonious trade sign inference model with a higher out-of-sample classification accuracy. Furthermore, for most of our stocks the observed regularity in market order submissions seems to have a memory of at least 30 trading days.

  8. Nonparametric modeling of dynamic functional connectivity in fmri data

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Søren Føns Vind; Madsen, Kristoffer H.; Røge, Rasmus

    2015-01-01

    dynamic changes. The existing approaches modeling dynamic connectivity have primarily been based on time-windowing the data and k-means clustering. We propose a nonparametric generative model for dynamic FC in fMRI that does not rely on specifying window lengths and number of dynamic states. Rooted...

  9. An adaptive distance measure for use with nonparametric models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Garvey, D. R.; Hines, J. W.

    2006-01-01

    Distance measures perform a critical task in nonparametric, locally weighted regression. Locally weighted regression (LWR) models are a form of 'lazy learning' which construct a local model 'on the fly' by comparing a query vector to historical, exemplar vectors according to a three step process. First, the distance of the query vector to each of the exemplar vectors is calculated. Next, these distances are passed to a kernel function, which converts the distances to similarities or weights. Finally, the model output or response is calculated by performing locally weighted polynomial regression. To date, traditional distance measures, such as the Euclidean, weighted Euclidean, and L1-norm have been used as the first step in the prediction process. Since these measures do not take into consideration sensor failures and drift, they are inherently ill-suited for application to 'real world' systems. This paper describes one such LWR model, namely auto associative kernel regression (AAKR), and describes a new, Adaptive Euclidean distance measure that can be used to dynamically compensate for faulty sensor inputs. In this new distance measure, the query observations that lie outside of the training range (i.e. outside the minimum and maximum input exemplars) are dropped from the distance calculation. This allows for the distance calculation to be robust to sensor drifts and failures, in addition to providing a method for managing inputs that exceed the training range. In this paper, AAKR models using the standard and Adaptive Euclidean distance are developed and compared for the pressure system of an operating nuclear power plant. It is shown that using the standard Euclidean distance for data with failed inputs, significant errors in the AAKR predictions can result. By using the Adaptive Euclidean distance it is shown that high fidelity predictions are possible, in spite of the input failure. In fact, it is shown that with the Adaptive Euclidean distance prediction

  10. The nonparametric bootstrap for the current status model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Groeneboom, P.; Hendrickx, K.

    2017-01-01

    It has been proved that direct bootstrapping of the nonparametric maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) of the distribution function in the current status model leads to inconsistent confidence intervals. We show that bootstrapping of functionals of the MLE can however be used to produce valid

  11. Economic decision making and the application of nonparametric prediction models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Attanasi, E.D.; Coburn, T.C.; Freeman, P.A.

    2008-01-01

    Sustained increases in energy prices have focused attention on gas resources in low-permeability shale or in coals that were previously considered economically marginal. Daily well deliverability is often relatively small, although the estimates of the total volumes of recoverable resources in these settings are often large. Planning and development decisions for extraction of such resources must be areawide because profitable extraction requires optimization of scale economies to minimize costs and reduce risk. For an individual firm, the decision to enter such plays depends on reconnaissance-level estimates of regional recoverable resources and on cost estimates to develop untested areas. This paper shows how simple nonparametric local regression models, used to predict technically recoverable resources at untested sites, can be combined with economic models to compute regional-scale cost functions. The context of the worked example is the Devonian Antrim-shale gas play in the Michigan basin. One finding relates to selection of the resource prediction model to be used with economic models. Models chosen because they can best predict aggregate volume over larger areas (many hundreds of sites) smooth out granularity in the distribution of predicted volumes at individual sites. This loss of detail affects the representation of economic cost functions and may affect economic decisions. Second, because some analysts consider unconventional resources to be ubiquitous, the selection and order of specific drilling sites may, in practice, be determined arbitrarily by extraneous factors. The analysis shows a 15-20% gain in gas volume when these simple models are applied to order drilling prospects strategically rather than to choose drilling locations randomly. Copyright ?? 2008 Society of Petroleum Engineers.

  12. A Bayesian Nonparametric Meta-Analysis Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karabatsos, George; Talbott, Elizabeth; Walker, Stephen G.

    2015-01-01

    In a meta-analysis, it is important to specify a model that adequately describes the effect-size distribution of the underlying population of studies. The conventional normal fixed-effect and normal random-effects models assume a normal effect-size population distribution, conditionally on parameters and covariates. For estimating the mean overall…

  13. Modeling Non-Gaussian Time Series with Nonparametric Bayesian Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Zhiguang; MacEachern, Steven; Xu, Xinyi

    2015-02-01

    We present a class of Bayesian copula models whose major components are the marginal (limiting) distribution of a stationary time series and the internal dynamics of the series. We argue that these are the two features with which an analyst is typically most familiar, and hence that these are natural components with which to work. For the marginal distribution, we use a nonparametric Bayesian prior distribution along with a cdf-inverse cdf transformation to obtain large support. For the internal dynamics, we rely on the traditionally successful techniques of normal-theory time series. Coupling the two components gives us a family of (Gaussian) copula transformed autoregressive models. The models provide coherent adjustments of time scales and are compatible with many extensions, including changes in volatility of the series. We describe basic properties of the models, show their ability to recover non-Gaussian marginal distributions, and use a GARCH modification of the basic model to analyze stock index return series. The models are found to provide better fit and improved short-range and long-range predictions than Gaussian competitors. The models are extensible to a large variety of fields, including continuous time models, spatial models, models for multiple series, models driven by external covariate streams, and non-stationary models.

  14. Non-Parametric Model Drift Detection

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-07-01

    framework on two tasks in NLP domain, topic modeling, and machine translation. Our main findings are summarized as follows: • We can measure important...thank,us,me,hope,today Group num: 4, TC(X;Y_j): 0.407 4:republic,palestinian,israel, arab ,israeli,democratic,congo,mr,president,occupied Group num: 5...support,change,lessons,partnerships,l earned Group num: 35, TC(X;Y_j): 0.094 35:russian,federation,spoke,you,french,spanish, arabic ,your,chinese,sir

  15. Nonparametric Bayesian models for a spatial covariance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reich, Brian J; Fuentes, Montserrat

    2012-01-01

    A crucial step in the analysis of spatial data is to estimate the spatial correlation function that determines the relationship between a spatial process at two locations. The standard approach to selecting the appropriate correlation function is to use prior knowledge or exploratory analysis, such as a variogram analysis, to select the correct parametric correlation function. Rather that selecting a particular parametric correlation function, we treat the covariance function as an unknown function to be estimated from the data. We propose a flexible prior for the correlation function to provide robustness to the choice of correlation function. We specify the prior for the correlation function using spectral methods and the Dirichlet process prior, which is a common prior for an unknown distribution function. Our model does not require Gaussian data or spatial locations on a regular grid. The approach is demonstrated using a simulation study as well as an analysis of California air pollution data.

  16. Flexible link functions in nonparametric binary regression with Gaussian process priors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Dan; Wang, Xia; Lin, Lizhen; Dey, Dipak K

    2016-09-01

    In many scientific fields, it is a common practice to collect a sequence of 0-1 binary responses from a subject across time, space, or a collection of covariates. Researchers are interested in finding out how the expected binary outcome is related to covariates, and aim at better prediction in the future 0-1 outcomes. Gaussian processes have been widely used to model nonlinear systems; in particular to model the latent structure in a binary regression model allowing nonlinear functional relationship between covariates and the expectation of binary outcomes. A critical issue in modeling binary response data is the appropriate choice of link functions. Commonly adopted link functions such as probit or logit links have fixed skewness and lack the flexibility to allow the data to determine the degree of the skewness. To address this limitation, we propose a flexible binary regression model which combines a generalized extreme value link function with a Gaussian process prior on the latent structure. Bayesian computation is employed in model estimation. Posterior consistency of the resulting posterior distribution is demonstrated. The flexibility and gains of the proposed model are illustrated through detailed simulation studies and two real data examples. Empirical results show that the proposed model outperforms a set of alternative models, which only have either a Gaussian process prior on the latent regression function or a Dirichlet prior on the link function. © 2015, The International Biometric Society.

  17. Nonparametric Bayesian models through probit stick-breaking processes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodríguez, Abel; Dunson, David B

    2011-03-01

    We describe a novel class of Bayesian nonparametric priors based on stick-breaking constructions where the weights of the process are constructed as probit transformations of normal random variables. We show that these priors are extremely flexible, allowing us to generate a great variety of models while preserving computational simplicity. Particular emphasis is placed on the construction of rich temporal and spatial processes, which are applied to two problems in finance and ecology.

  18. Estimation of Stochastic Volatility Models by Nonparametric Filtering

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kanaya, Shin; Kristensen, Dennis

    2016-01-01

    /estimated volatility process replacing the latent process. Our estimation strategy is applicable to both parametric and nonparametric stochastic volatility models, and can handle both jumps and market microstructure noise. The resulting estimators of the stochastic volatility model will carry additional biases...... and variances due to the first-step estimation, but under regularity conditions we show that these vanish asymptotically and our estimators inherit the asymptotic properties of the infeasible estimators based on observations of the volatility process. A simulation study examines the finite-sample properties...

  19. Improving salt marsh digital elevation model accuracy with full-waveform lidar and nonparametric predictive modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rogers, Jeffrey N.; Parrish, Christopher E.; Ward, Larry G.; Burdick, David M.

    2018-03-01

    Salt marsh vegetation tends to increase vertical uncertainty in light detection and ranging (lidar) derived elevation data, often causing the data to become ineffective for analysis of topographic features governing tidal inundation or vegetation zonation. Previous attempts at improving lidar data collected in salt marsh environments range from simply computing and subtracting the global elevation bias to more complex methods such as computing vegetation-specific, constant correction factors. The vegetation specific corrections can be used along with an existing habitat map to apply separate corrections to different areas within a study site. It is hypothesized here that correcting salt marsh lidar data by applying location-specific, point-by-point corrections, which are computed from lidar waveform-derived features, tidal-datum based elevation, distance from shoreline and other lidar digital elevation model based variables, using nonparametric regression will produce better results. The methods were developed and tested using full-waveform lidar and ground truth for three marshes in Cape Cod, Massachusetts, U.S.A. Five different model algorithms for nonparametric regression were evaluated, with TreeNet's stochastic gradient boosting algorithm consistently producing better regression and classification results. Additionally, models were constructed to predict the vegetative zone (high marsh and low marsh). The predictive modeling methods used in this study estimated ground elevation with a mean bias of 0.00 m and a standard deviation of 0.07 m (0.07 m root mean square error). These methods appear very promising for correction of salt marsh lidar data and, importantly, do not require an existing habitat map, biomass measurements, or image based remote sensing data such as multi/hyperspectral imagery.

  20. A BAYESIAN NONPARAMETRIC MIXTURE MODEL FOR SELECTING GENES AND GENE SUBNETWORKS.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Yize; Kang, Jian; Yu, Tianwei

    2014-06-01

    It is very challenging to select informative features from tens of thousands of measured features in high-throughput data analysis. Recently, several parametric/regression models have been developed utilizing the gene network information to select genes or pathways strongly associated with a clinical/biological outcome. Alternatively, in this paper, we propose a nonparametric Bayesian model for gene selection incorporating network information. In addition to identifying genes that have a strong association with a clinical outcome, our model can select genes with particular expressional behavior, in which case the regression models are not directly applicable. We show that our proposed model is equivalent to an infinity mixture model for which we develop a posterior computation algorithm based on Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods. We also propose two fast computing algorithms that approximate the posterior simulation with good accuracy but relatively low computational cost. We illustrate our methods on simulation studies and the analysis of Spellman yeast cell cycle microarray data.

  1. Bayesian Nonparametric Regression Analysis of Data with Random Effects Covariates from Longitudinal Measurements

    KAUST Repository

    Ryu, Duchwan; Li, Erning; Mallick, Bani K.

    2010-01-01

    " approach and the regression calibration, via simulations and by an application that investigates the relationship between obesity in adulthood and childhood growth curves. © 2010, The International Biometric Society.

  2. Testing and Estimating Shape-Constrained Nonparametric Density and Regression in the Presence of Measurement Error

    KAUST Repository

    Carroll, Raymond J.; Delaigle, Aurore; Hall, Peter

    2011-01-01

    In many applications we can expect that, or are interested to know if, a density function or a regression curve satisfies some specific shape constraints. For example, when the explanatory variable, X, represents the value taken by a treatment

  3. Bayesian Nonparametric Model for Estimating Multistate Travel Time Distribution

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Emmanuel Kidando

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Multistate models, that is, models with more than two distributions, are preferred over single-state probability models in modeling the distribution of travel time. Literature review indicated that the finite multistate modeling of travel time using lognormal distribution is superior to other probability functions. In this study, we extend the finite multistate lognormal model of estimating the travel time distribution to unbounded lognormal distribution. In particular, a nonparametric Dirichlet Process Mixture Model (DPMM with stick-breaking process representation was used. The strength of the DPMM is that it can choose the number of components dynamically as part of the algorithm during parameter estimation. To reduce computational complexity, the modeling process was limited to a maximum of six components. Then, the Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC sampling technique was employed to estimate the parameters’ posterior distribution. Speed data from nine links of a freeway corridor, aggregated on a 5-minute basis, were used to calculate the corridor travel time. The results demonstrated that this model offers significant flexibility in modeling to account for complex mixture distributions of the travel time without specifying the number of components. The DPMM modeling further revealed that freeway travel time is characterized by multistate or single-state models depending on the inclusion of onset and offset of congestion periods.

  4. Generative Temporal Modelling of Neuroimaging - Decomposition and Nonparametric Testing

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hald, Ditte Høvenhoff

    The goal of this thesis is to explore two improvements for functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) analysis; namely our proposed decomposition method and an extension to the non-parametric testing framework. Analysis of fMRI allows researchers to investigate the functional processes...... of the brain, and provides insight into neuronal coupling during mental processes or tasks. The decomposition method is a Gaussian process-based independent components analysis (GPICA), which incorporates a temporal dependency in the sources. A hierarchical model specification is used, featuring both...... instantaneous and convolutive mixing, and the inferred temporal patterns. Spatial maps are seen to capture smooth and localized stimuli-related components, and often identifiable noise components. The implementation is freely available as a GUI/SPM plugin, and we recommend using GPICA as an additional tool when...

  5. Nonparametric Estimation of Distributions in Random Effects Models

    KAUST Repository

    Hart, Jeffrey D.

    2011-01-01

    We propose using minimum distance to obtain nonparametric estimates of the distributions of components in random effects models. A main setting considered is equivalent to having a large number of small datasets whose locations, and perhaps scales, vary randomly, but which otherwise have a common distribution. Interest focuses on estimating the distribution that is common to all datasets, knowledge of which is crucial in multiple testing problems where a location/scale invariant test is applied to every small dataset. A detailed algorithm for computing minimum distance estimates is proposed, and the usefulness of our methodology is illustrated by a simulation study and an analysis of microarray data. Supplemental materials for the article, including R-code and a dataset, are available online. © 2011 American Statistical Association.

  6. Simple nonparametric checks for model data fit in CAT

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Meijer, R.R.

    2005-01-01

    In this paper, the usefulness of several nonparametric checks is discussed in a computerized adaptive testing (CAT) context. Although there is no tradition of nonparametric scalability in CAT, it can be argued that scalability checks can be useful to investigate, for example, the quality of item

  7. Efficient estimation of an additive quantile regression model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Cheng, Y.; de Gooijer, J.G.; Zerom, D.

    2009-01-01

    In this paper two kernel-based nonparametric estimators are proposed for estimating the components of an additive quantile regression model. The first estimator is a computationally convenient approach which can be viewed as a viable alternative to the method of De Gooijer and Zerom (2003). By

  8. Efficient estimation of an additive quantile regression model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Cheng, Y.; de Gooijer, J.G.; Zerom, D.

    2010-01-01

    In this paper two kernel-based nonparametric estimators are proposed for estimating the components of an additive quantile regression model. The first estimator is a computationally convenient approach which can be viewed as a viable alternative to the method of De Gooijer and Zerom (2003). By

  9. Efficient estimation of an additive quantile regression model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Cheng, Y.; de Gooijer, J.G.; Zerom, D.

    2011-01-01

    In this paper, two non-parametric estimators are proposed for estimating the components of an additive quantile regression model. The first estimator is a computationally convenient approach which can be viewed as a more viable alternative to existing kernel-based approaches. The second estimator

  10. Bayesian nonparametric meta-analysis using Polya tree mixture models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Branscum, Adam J; Hanson, Timothy E

    2008-09-01

    Summary. A common goal in meta-analysis is estimation of a single effect measure using data from several studies that are each designed to address the same scientific inquiry. Because studies are typically conducted in geographically disperse locations, recent developments in the statistical analysis of meta-analytic data involve the use of random effects models that account for study-to-study variability attributable to differences in environments, demographics, genetics, and other sources that lead to heterogeneity in populations. Stemming from asymptotic theory, study-specific summary statistics are modeled according to normal distributions with means representing latent true effect measures. A parametric approach subsequently models these latent measures using a normal distribution, which is strictly a convenient modeling assumption absent of theoretical justification. To eliminate the influence of overly restrictive parametric models on inferences, we consider a broader class of random effects distributions. We develop a novel hierarchical Bayesian nonparametric Polya tree mixture (PTM) model. We present methodology for testing the PTM versus a normal random effects model. These methods provide researchers a straightforward approach for conducting a sensitivity analysis of the normality assumption for random effects. An application involving meta-analysis of epidemiologic studies designed to characterize the association between alcohol consumption and breast cancer is presented, which together with results from simulated data highlight the performance of PTMs in the presence of nonnormality of effect measures in the source population.

  11. Variable selection and model choice in geoadditive regression models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kneib, Thomas; Hothorn, Torsten; Tutz, Gerhard

    2009-06-01

    Model choice and variable selection are issues of major concern in practical regression analyses, arising in many biometric applications such as habitat suitability analyses, where the aim is to identify the influence of potentially many environmental conditions on certain species. We describe regression models for breeding bird communities that facilitate both model choice and variable selection, by a boosting algorithm that works within a class of geoadditive regression models comprising spatial effects, nonparametric effects of continuous covariates, interaction surfaces, and varying coefficients. The major modeling components are penalized splines and their bivariate tensor product extensions. All smooth model terms are represented as the sum of a parametric component and a smooth component with one degree of freedom to obtain a fair comparison between the model terms. A generic representation of the geoadditive model allows us to devise a general boosting algorithm that automatically performs model choice and variable selection.

  12. Logistic regression models

    CERN Document Server

    Hilbe, Joseph M

    2009-01-01

    This book really does cover everything you ever wanted to know about logistic regression … with updates available on the author's website. Hilbe, a former national athletics champion, philosopher, and expert in astronomy, is a master at explaining statistical concepts and methods. Readers familiar with his other expository work will know what to expect-great clarity.The book provides considerable detail about all facets of logistic regression. No step of an argument is omitted so that the book will meet the needs of the reader who likes to see everything spelt out, while a person familiar with some of the topics has the option to skip "obvious" sections. The material has been thoroughly road-tested through classroom and web-based teaching. … The focus is on helping the reader to learn and understand logistic regression. The audience is not just students meeting the topic for the first time, but also experienced users. I believe the book really does meet the author's goal … .-Annette J. Dobson, Biometric...

  13. Bayesian nonparametric clustering in phylogenetics: modeling antigenic evolution in influenza.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cybis, Gabriela B; Sinsheimer, Janet S; Bedford, Trevor; Rambaut, Andrew; Lemey, Philippe; Suchard, Marc A

    2018-01-30

    Influenza is responsible for up to 500,000 deaths every year, and antigenic variability represents much of its epidemiological burden. To visualize antigenic differences across many viral strains, antigenic cartography methods use multidimensional scaling on binding assay data to map influenza antigenicity onto a low-dimensional space. Analysis of such assay data ideally leads to natural clustering of influenza strains of similar antigenicity that correlate with sequence evolution. To understand the dynamics of these antigenic groups, we present a framework that jointly models genetic and antigenic evolution by combining multidimensional scaling of binding assay data, Bayesian phylogenetic machinery and nonparametric clustering methods. We propose a phylogenetic Chinese restaurant process that extends the current process to incorporate the phylogenetic dependency structure between strains in the modeling of antigenic clusters. With this method, we are able to use the genetic information to better understand the evolution of antigenicity throughout epidemics, as shown in applications of this model to H1N1 influenza. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  14. A non-parametric test for partial monotonicity in multiple regression

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Beek, M.; Daniëls, H.A.M.

    Partial positive (negative) monotonicity in a dataset is the property that an increase in an independent variable, ceteris paribus, generates an increase (decrease) in the dependent variable. A test for partial monotonicity in datasets could (1) increase model performance if monotonicity may be

  15. A non-parametric consistency test of the ΛCDM model with Planck CMB data

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Aghamousa, Amir; Shafieloo, Arman [Korea Astronomy and Space Science Institute, Daejeon 305-348 (Korea, Republic of); Hamann, Jan, E-mail: amir@aghamousa.com, E-mail: jan.hamann@unsw.edu.au, E-mail: shafieloo@kasi.re.kr [School of Physics, The University of New South Wales, Sydney NSW 2052 (Australia)

    2017-09-01

    Non-parametric reconstruction methods, such as Gaussian process (GP) regression, provide a model-independent way of estimating an underlying function and its uncertainty from noisy data. We demonstrate how GP-reconstruction can be used as a consistency test between a given data set and a specific model by looking for structures in the residuals of the data with respect to the model's best-fit. Applying this formalism to the Planck temperature and polarisation power spectrum measurements, we test their global consistency with the predictions of the base ΛCDM model. Our results do not show any serious inconsistencies, lending further support to the interpretation of the base ΛCDM model as cosmology's gold standard.

  16. Nonparametric model validations for hidden Markov models with applications in financial econometrics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Zhibiao

    2011-06-01

    We address the nonparametric model validation problem for hidden Markov models with partially observable variables and hidden states. We achieve this goal by constructing a nonparametric simultaneous confidence envelope for transition density function of the observable variables and checking whether the parametric density estimate is contained within such an envelope. Our specification test procedure is motivated by a functional connection between the transition density of the observable variables and the Markov transition kernel of the hidden states. Our approach is applicable for continuous time diffusion models, stochastic volatility models, nonlinear time series models, and models with market microstructure noise.

  17. (Non) linear regression modelling

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Cizek, P.; Gentle, J.E.; Hardle, W.K.; Mori, Y.

    2012-01-01

    We will study causal relationships of a known form between random variables. Given a model, we distinguish one or more dependent (endogenous) variables Y = (Y1,…,Yl), l ∈ N, which are explained by a model, and independent (exogenous, explanatory) variables X = (X1,…,Xp),p ∈ N, which explain or

  18. Application of nonparametric regression methods to study the relationship between NO2 concentrations and local wind direction and speed at background sites.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Donnelly, Aoife; Misstear, Bruce; Broderick, Brian

    2011-02-15

    Background concentrations of nitrogen dioxide (NO(2)) are not constant but vary temporally and spatially. The current paper presents a powerful tool for the quantification of the effects of wind direction and wind speed on background NO(2) concentrations, particularly in cases where monitoring data are limited. In contrast to previous studies which applied similar methods to sites directly affected by local pollution sources, the current study focuses on background sites with the aim of improving methods for predicting background concentrations adopted in air quality modelling studies. The relationship between measured NO(2) concentration in air at three such sites in Ireland and locally measured wind direction has been quantified using nonparametric regression methods. The major aim was to analyse a method for quantifying the effects of local wind direction on background levels of NO(2) in Ireland. The method was expanded to include wind speed as an added predictor variable. A Gaussian kernel function is used in the analysis and circular statistics employed for the wind direction variable. Wind direction and wind speed were both found to have a statistically significant effect on background levels of NO(2) at all three sites. Frequently environmental impact assessments are based on short term baseline monitoring producing a limited dataset. The presented non-parametric regression methods, in contrast to the frequently used methods such as binning of the data, allow concentrations for missing data pairs to be estimated and distinction between spurious and true peaks in concentrations to be made. The methods were found to provide a realistic estimation of long term concentration variation with wind direction and speed, even for cases where the data set is limited. Accurate identification of the actual variation at each location and causative factors could be made, thus supporting the improved definition of background concentrations for use in air quality modelling

  19. Panel Smooth Transition Regression Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    González, Andrés; Terasvirta, Timo; Dijk, Dick van

    We introduce the panel smooth transition regression model. This new model is intended for characterizing heterogeneous panels, allowing the regression coefficients to vary both across individuals and over time. Specifically, heterogeneity is allowed for by assuming that these coefficients are bou...

  20. Approximating prediction uncertainty for random forest regression models

    Science.gov (United States)

    John W. Coulston; Christine E. Blinn; Valerie A. Thomas; Randolph H. Wynne

    2016-01-01

    Machine learning approaches such as random forest have increased for the spatial modeling and mapping of continuous variables. Random forest is a non-parametric ensemble approach, and unlike traditional regression approaches there is no direct quantification of prediction error. Understanding prediction uncertainty is important when using model-based continuous maps as...

  1. Nonparametric Identification and Estimation of Finite Mixture Models of Dynamic Discrete Choices

    OpenAIRE

    Hiroyuki Kasahara; Katsumi Shimotsu

    2006-01-01

    In dynamic discrete choice analysis, controlling for unobserved heterogeneity is an important issue, and finite mixture models provide flexible ways to account for unobserved heterogeneity. This paper studies nonparametric identifiability of type probabilities and type-specific component distributions in finite mixture models of dynamic discrete choices. We derive sufficient conditions for nonparametric identification for various finite mixture models of dynamic discrete choices used in appli...

  2. Forecasting with Dynamic Regression Models

    CERN Document Server

    Pankratz, Alan

    2012-01-01

    One of the most widely used tools in statistical forecasting, single equation regression models is examined here. A companion to the author's earlier work, Forecasting with Univariate Box-Jenkins Models: Concepts and Cases, the present text pulls together recent time series ideas and gives special attention to possible intertemporal patterns, distributed lag responses of output to input series and the auto correlation patterns of regression disturbance. It also includes six case studies.

  3. Modified Regression Correlation Coefficient for Poisson Regression Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaengthong, Nattacha; Domthong, Uthumporn

    2017-09-01

    This study gives attention to indicators in predictive power of the Generalized Linear Model (GLM) which are widely used; however, often having some restrictions. We are interested in regression correlation coefficient for a Poisson regression model. This is a measure of predictive power, and defined by the relationship between the dependent variable (Y) and the expected value of the dependent variable given the independent variables [E(Y|X)] for the Poisson regression model. The dependent variable is distributed as Poisson. The purpose of this research was modifying regression correlation coefficient for Poisson regression model. We also compare the proposed modified regression correlation coefficient with the traditional regression correlation coefficient in the case of two or more independent variables, and having multicollinearity in independent variables. The result shows that the proposed regression correlation coefficient is better than the traditional regression correlation coefficient based on Bias and the Root Mean Square Error (RMSE).

  4. Nonparametric Tree-Based Predictive Modeling of Storm Outages on an Electric Distribution Network.

    Science.gov (United States)

    He, Jichao; Wanik, David W; Hartman, Brian M; Anagnostou, Emmanouil N; Astitha, Marina; Frediani, Maria E B

    2017-03-01

    This article compares two nonparametric tree-based models, quantile regression forests (QRF) and Bayesian additive regression trees (BART), for predicting storm outages on an electric distribution network in Connecticut, USA. We evaluated point estimates and prediction intervals of outage predictions for both models using high-resolution weather, infrastructure, and land use data for 89 storm events (including hurricanes, blizzards, and thunderstorms). We found that spatially BART predicted more accurate point estimates than QRF. However, QRF produced better prediction intervals for high spatial resolutions (2-km grid cells and towns), while BART predictions aggregated to coarser resolutions (divisions and service territory) more effectively. We also found that the predictive accuracy was dependent on the season (e.g., tree-leaf condition, storm characteristics), and that the predictions were most accurate for winter storms. Given the merits of each individual model, we suggest that BART and QRF be implemented together to show the complete picture of a storm's potential impact on the electric distribution network, which would allow for a utility to make better decisions about allocating prestorm resources. © 2016 Society for Risk Analysis.

  5. Regression Models for Repairable Systems

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Novák, Petr

    2015-01-01

    Roč. 17, č. 4 (2015), s. 963-972 ISSN 1387-5841 Institutional support: RVO:67985556 Keywords : Reliability analysis * Repair models * Regression Subject RIV: BB - Applied Statistics, Operational Research Impact factor: 0.782, year: 2015 http://library.utia.cas.cz/separaty/2015/SI/novak-0450902.pdf

  6. A generalized additive regression model for survival times

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Scheike, Thomas H.

    2001-01-01

    Additive Aalen model; counting process; disability model; illness-death model; generalized additive models; multiple time-scales; non-parametric estimation; survival data; varying-coefficient models......Additive Aalen model; counting process; disability model; illness-death model; generalized additive models; multiple time-scales; non-parametric estimation; survival data; varying-coefficient models...

  7. NONPARAMETRIC FIXED EFFECT PANEL DATA MODELS: RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN AIR POLLUTION AND INCOME FOR TURKEY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rabia Ece OMAY

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available In this study, relationship between gross domestic product (GDP per capita and sulfur dioxide (SO2 and particulate matter (PM10 per capita is modeled for Turkey. Nonparametric fixed effect panel data analysis is used for the modeling. The panel data covers 12 territories, in first level of Nomenclature of Territorial Units for Statistics (NUTS, for period of 1990-2001. Modeling of the relationship between GDP and SO2 and PM10 for Turkey, the non-parametric models have given good results.

  8. Bioprocess iterative batch-to-batch optimization based on hybrid parametric/nonparametric models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Teixeira, Ana P; Clemente, João J; Cunha, António E; Carrondo, Manuel J T; Oliveira, Rui

    2006-01-01

    This paper presents a novel method for iterative batch-to-batch dynamic optimization of bioprocesses. The relationship between process performance and control inputs is established by means of hybrid grey-box models combining parametric and nonparametric structures. The bioreactor dynamics are defined by material balance equations, whereas the cell population subsystem is represented by an adjustable mixture of nonparametric and parametric models. Thus optimizations are possible without detailed mechanistic knowledge concerning the biological system. A clustering technique is used to supervise the reliability of the nonparametric subsystem during the optimization. Whenever the nonparametric outputs are unreliable, the objective function is penalized. The technique was evaluated with three simulation case studies. The overall results suggest that the convergence to the optimal process performance may be achieved after a small number of batches. The model unreliability risk constraint along with sampling scheduling are crucial to minimize the experimental effort required to attain a given process performance. In general terms, it may be concluded that the proposed method broadens the application of the hybrid parametric/nonparametric modeling technique to "newer" processes with higher potential for optimization.

  9. Variable Selection for Nonparametric Gaussian Process Priors: Models and Computational Strategies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Savitsky, Terrance; Vannucci, Marina; Sha, Naijun

    2011-02-01

    This paper presents a unified treatment of Gaussian process models that extends to data from the exponential dispersion family and to survival data. Our specific interest is in the analysis of data sets with predictors that have an a priori unknown form of possibly nonlinear associations to the response. The modeling approach we describe incorporates Gaussian processes in a generalized linear model framework to obtain a class of nonparametric regression models where the covariance matrix depends on the predictors. We consider, in particular, continuous, categorical and count responses. We also look into models that account for survival outcomes. We explore alternative covariance formulations for the Gaussian process prior and demonstrate the flexibility of the construction. Next, we focus on the important problem of selecting variables from the set of possible predictors and describe a general framework that employs mixture priors. We compare alternative MCMC strategies for posterior inference and achieve a computationally efficient and practical approach. We demonstrate performances on simulated and benchmark data sets.

  10. A Bayesian approach to the analysis of quantal bioassay studies using nonparametric mixture models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fronczyk, Kassandra; Kottas, Athanasios

    2014-03-01

    We develop a Bayesian nonparametric mixture modeling framework for quantal bioassay settings. The approach is built upon modeling dose-dependent response distributions. We adopt a structured nonparametric prior mixture model, which induces a monotonicity restriction for the dose-response curve. Particular emphasis is placed on the key risk assessment goal of calibration for the dose level that corresponds to a specified response. The proposed methodology yields flexible inference for the dose-response relationship as well as for other inferential objectives, as illustrated with two data sets from the literature. © 2013, The International Biometric Society.

  11. Nonparametric Integrated Agrometeorological Drought Monitoring: Model Development and Application

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Qiang; Li, Qin; Singh, Vijay P.; Shi, Peijun; Huang, Qingzhong; Sun, Peng

    2018-01-01

    Drought is a major natural hazard that has massive impacts on the society. How to monitor drought is critical for its mitigation and early warning. This study proposed a modified version of the multivariate standardized drought index (MSDI) based on precipitation, evapotranspiration, and soil moisture, i.e., modified multivariate standardized drought index (MMSDI). This study also used nonparametric joint probability distribution analysis. Comparisons were done between standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI), standardized soil moisture index (SSMI), MSDI, and MMSDI, and real-world observed drought regimes. Results indicated that MMSDI detected droughts that SPEI and/or SSMI failed to do. Also, MMSDI detected almost all droughts that were identified by SPEI and SSMI. Further, droughts detected by MMSDI were similar to real-world observed droughts in terms of drought intensity and drought-affected area. When compared to MMSDI, MSDI has the potential to overestimate drought intensity and drought-affected area across China, which should be attributed to exclusion of the evapotranspiration components from estimation of drought intensity. Therefore, MMSDI is proposed for drought monitoring that can detect agrometeorological droughts. Results of this study provide a framework for integrated drought monitoring in other regions of the world and can help to develop drought mitigation.

  12. Non-parametric correlative uncertainty quantification and sensitivity analysis: Application to a Langmuir bimolecular adsorption model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feng, Jinchao; Lansford, Joshua; Mironenko, Alexander; Pourkargar, Davood Babaei; Vlachos, Dionisios G.; Katsoulakis, Markos A.

    2018-03-01

    We propose non-parametric methods for both local and global sensitivity analysis of chemical reaction models with correlated parameter dependencies. The developed mathematical and statistical tools are applied to a benchmark Langmuir competitive adsorption model on a close packed platinum surface, whose parameters, estimated from quantum-scale computations, are correlated and are limited in size (small data). The proposed mathematical methodology employs gradient-based methods to compute sensitivity indices. We observe that ranking influential parameters depends critically on whether or not correlations between parameters are taken into account. The impact of uncertainty in the correlation and the necessity of the proposed non-parametric perspective are demonstrated.

  13. Non-parametric correlative uncertainty quantification and sensitivity analysis: Application to a Langmuir bimolecular adsorption model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jinchao Feng

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available We propose non-parametric methods for both local and global sensitivity analysis of chemical reaction models with correlated parameter dependencies. The developed mathematical and statistical tools are applied to a benchmark Langmuir competitive adsorption model on a close packed platinum surface, whose parameters, estimated from quantum-scale computations, are correlated and are limited in size (small data. The proposed mathematical methodology employs gradient-based methods to compute sensitivity indices. We observe that ranking influential parameters depends critically on whether or not correlations between parameters are taken into account. The impact of uncertainty in the correlation and the necessity of the proposed non-parametric perspective are demonstrated.

  14. A non-parametric hierarchical model to discover behavior dynamics from tracks

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kooij, J.F.P.; Englebienne, G.; Gavrila, D.M.

    2012-01-01

    We present a novel non-parametric Bayesian model to jointly discover the dynamics of low-level actions and high-level behaviors of tracked people in open environments. Our model represents behaviors as Markov chains of actions which capture high-level temporal dynamics. Actions may be shared by

  15. Kendall-Theil Robust Line (KTRLine--version 1.0)-A Visual Basic Program for Calculating and Graphing Robust Nonparametric Estimates of Linear-Regression Coefficients Between Two Continuous Variables

    Science.gov (United States)

    Granato, Gregory E.

    2006-01-01

    The Kendall-Theil Robust Line software (KTRLine-version 1.0) is a Visual Basic program that may be used with the Microsoft Windows operating system to calculate parameters for robust, nonparametric estimates of linear-regression coefficients between two continuous variables. The KTRLine software was developed by the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Federal Highway Administration, for use in stochastic data modeling with local, regional, and national hydrologic data sets to develop planning-level estimates of potential effects of highway runoff on the quality of receiving waters. The Kendall-Theil robust line was selected because this robust nonparametric method is resistant to the effects of outliers and nonnormality in residuals that commonly characterize hydrologic data sets. The slope of the line is calculated as the median of all possible pairwise slopes between points. The intercept is calculated so that the line will run through the median of input data. A single-line model or a multisegment model may be specified. The program was developed to provide regression equations with an error component for stochastic data generation because nonparametric multisegment regression tools are not available with the software that is commonly used to develop regression models. The Kendall-Theil robust line is a median line and, therefore, may underestimate total mass, volume, or loads unless the error component or a bias correction factor is incorporated into the estimate. Regression statistics such as the median error, the median absolute deviation, the prediction error sum of squares, the root mean square error, the confidence interval for the slope, and the bias correction factor for median estimates are calculated by use of nonparametric methods. These statistics, however, may be used to formulate estimates of mass, volume, or total loads. The program is used to read a two- or three-column tab-delimited input file with variable names in the first row and

  16. A Bayesian Beta-Mixture Model for Nonparametric IRT (BBM-IRT)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arenson, Ethan A.; Karabatsos, George

    2017-01-01

    Item response models typically assume that the item characteristic (step) curves follow a logistic or normal cumulative distribution function, which are strictly monotone functions of person test ability. Such assumptions can be overly-restrictive for real item response data. We propose a simple and more flexible Bayesian nonparametric IRT model…

  17. A comparative study of non-parametric models for identification of ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    However, the frequency response method using random binary signals was good for unpredicted white noise characteristics and considered the best method for non-parametric system identifica-tion. The autoregressive external input (ARX) model was very useful for system identification, but on applicati-on, few input ...

  18. Statistical approach for selection of regression model during validation of bioanalytical method

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Natalija Nakov

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available The selection of an adequate regression model is the basis for obtaining accurate and reproducible results during the bionalytical method validation. Given the wide concentration range, frequently present in bioanalytical assays, heteroscedasticity of the data may be expected. Several weighted linear and quadratic regression models were evaluated during the selection of the adequate curve fit using nonparametric statistical tests: One sample rank test and Wilcoxon signed rank test for two independent groups of samples. The results obtained with One sample rank test could not give statistical justification for the selection of linear vs. quadratic regression models because slight differences between the error (presented through the relative residuals were obtained. Estimation of the significance of the differences in the RR was achieved using Wilcoxon signed rank test, where linear and quadratic regression models were treated as two independent groups. The application of this simple non-parametric statistical test provides statistical confirmation of the choice of an adequate regression model.

  19. Nonparametric modeling of longitudinal covariance structure in functional mapping of quantitative trait loci.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yap, John Stephen; Fan, Jianqing; Wu, Rongling

    2009-12-01

    Estimation of the covariance structure of longitudinal processes is a fundamental prerequisite for the practical deployment of functional mapping designed to study the genetic regulation and network of quantitative variation in dynamic complex traits. We present a nonparametric approach for estimating the covariance structure of a quantitative trait measured repeatedly at a series of time points. Specifically, we adopt Huang et al.'s (2006, Biometrika 93, 85-98) approach of invoking the modified Cholesky decomposition and converting the problem into modeling a sequence of regressions of responses. A regularized covariance estimator is obtained using a normal penalized likelihood with an L(2) penalty. This approach, embedded within a mixture likelihood framework, leads to enhanced accuracy, precision, and flexibility of functional mapping while preserving its biological relevance. Simulation studies are performed to reveal the statistical properties and advantages of the proposed method. A real example from a mouse genome project is analyzed to illustrate the utilization of the methodology. The new method will provide a useful tool for genome-wide scanning for the existence and distribution of quantitative trait loci underlying a dynamic trait important to agriculture, biology, and health sciences.

  20. Interpretation of commonly used statistical regression models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kasza, Jessica; Wolfe, Rory

    2014-01-01

    A review of some regression models commonly used in respiratory health applications is provided in this article. Simple linear regression, multiple linear regression, logistic regression and ordinal logistic regression are considered. The focus of this article is on the interpretation of the regression coefficients of each model, which are illustrated through the application of these models to a respiratory health research study. © 2013 The Authors. Respirology © 2013 Asian Pacific Society of Respirology.

  1. The limiting behavior of the estimated parameters in a misspecified random field regression model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dahl, Christian Møller; Qin, Yu

    This paper examines the limiting properties of the estimated parameters in the random field regression model recently proposed by Hamilton (Econometrica, 2001). Though the model is parametric, it enjoys the flexibility of the nonparametric approach since it can approximate a large collection of n...

  2. Using multinomial and imprecise probability for non-parametric modelling of rainfall in Manizales (Colombia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ibsen Chivatá Cárdenas

    2008-05-01

    Full Text Available This article presents a rainfall model constructed by applying non-parametric modelling and imprecise probabilities; these tools were used because there was not enough homogeneous information in the study area. The area’s hydro-logical information regarding rainfall was scarce and existing hydrological time series were not uniform. A distributed extended rainfall model was constructed from so-called probability boxes (p-boxes, multinomial probability distribu-tion and confidence intervals (a friendly algorithm was constructed for non-parametric modelling by combining the last two tools. This model confirmed the high level of uncertainty involved in local rainfall modelling. Uncertainty en-compassed the whole range (domain of probability values thereby showing the severe limitations on information, leading to the conclusion that a detailed estimation of probability would lead to significant error. Nevertheless, rele-vant information was extracted; it was estimated that maximum daily rainfall threshold (70 mm would be surpassed at least once every three years and the magnitude of uncertainty affecting hydrological parameter estimation. This paper’s conclusions may be of interest to non-parametric modellers and decisions-makers as such modelling and imprecise probability represents an alternative for hydrological variable assessment and maybe an obligatory proce-dure in the future. Its potential lies in treating scarce information and represents a robust modelling strategy for non-seasonal stochastic modelling conditions

  3. Nonparametric NAR-ARCH Modelling of Stock Prices by the Kernel Methodology

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohamed Chikhi

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available This paper analyses cyclical behaviour of Orange stock price listed in French stock exchange over 01/03/2000 to 02/02/2017 by testing the nonlinearities through a class of conditional heteroscedastic nonparametric models. The linearity and Gaussianity assumptions are rejected for Orange Stock returns and informational shocks have transitory effects on returns and volatility. The forecasting results show that Orange stock prices are short-term predictable and nonparametric NAR-ARCH model has better performance over parametric MA-APARCH model for short horizons. Plus, the estimates of this model are also better comparing to the predictions of the random walk model. This finding provides evidence for weak form of inefficiency in Paris stock market with limited rationality, thus it emerges arbitrage opportunities.

  4. Promotion time cure rate model with nonparametric form of covariate effects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Tianlei; Du, Pang

    2018-05-10

    Survival data with a cured portion are commonly seen in clinical trials. Motivated from a biological interpretation of cancer metastasis, promotion time cure model is a popular alternative to the mixture cure rate model for analyzing such data. The existing promotion cure models all assume a restrictive parametric form of covariate effects, which can be incorrectly specified especially at the exploratory stage. In this paper, we propose a nonparametric approach to modeling the covariate effects under the framework of promotion time cure model. The covariate effect function is estimated by smoothing splines via the optimization of a penalized profile likelihood. Point-wise interval estimates are also derived from the Bayesian interpretation of the penalized profile likelihood. Asymptotic convergence rates are established for the proposed estimates. Simulations show excellent performance of the proposed nonparametric method, which is then applied to a melanoma study. Copyright © 2018 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  5. Bayesian Nonparametric Statistical Inference for Shock Models and Wear Processes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    1979-12-01

    also note that the results in Section 2 do not depend on the support of F .) This shock model have been studied by Esary, Marshall and Proschan (1973...Barlow and Proschan (1975), among others. The analogy of the shock model in risk and acturial analysis has been given by BUhlmann (1970, Chapter 2... Mathematical Statistics, Vol. 4, pp. 894-906. Billingsley, P. (1968), CONVERGENCE OF PROBABILITY MEASURES, John Wiley, New York. BUhlmann, H. (1970

  6. Bayesian nonparametric estimation of hazard rate in monotone Aalen model

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Timková, Jana

    2014-01-01

    Roč. 50, č. 6 (2014), s. 849-868 ISSN 0023-5954 Institutional support: RVO:67985556 Keywords : Aalen model * Bayesian estimation * MCMC Subject RIV: BB - Applied Statistics, Operational Research Impact factor: 0.541, year: 2014 http://library.utia.cas.cz/separaty/2014/SI/timkova-0438210.pdf

  7. Nonparametric volatility density estimation for discrete time models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Es, van Bert; Spreij, P.J.C.; Zanten, van J.H.

    2005-01-01

    We consider discrete time models for asset prices with a stationary volatility process. We aim at estimating the multivariate density of this process at a set of consecutive time instants. A Fourier-type deconvolution kernel density estimator based on the logarithm of the squared process is proposed

  8. Bayesian Non-Parametric Mixtures of GARCH(1,1 Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    John W. Lau

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Traditional GARCH models describe volatility levels that evolve smoothly over time, generated by a single GARCH regime. However, nonstationary time series data may exhibit abrupt changes in volatility, suggesting changes in the underlying GARCH regimes. Further, the number and times of regime changes are not always obvious. This article outlines a nonparametric mixture of GARCH models that is able to estimate the number and time of volatility regime changes by mixing over the Poisson-Kingman process. The process is a generalisation of the Dirichlet process typically used in nonparametric models for time-dependent data provides a richer clustering structure, and its application to time series data is novel. Inference is Bayesian, and a Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm to explore the posterior distribution is described. The methodology is illustrated on the Standard and Poor's 500 financial index.

  9. A NONPARAMETRIC HYPOTHESIS TEST VIA THE BOOTSTRAP RESAMPLING

    OpenAIRE

    Temel, Tugrul T.

    2001-01-01

    This paper adapts an already existing nonparametric hypothesis test to the bootstrap framework. The test utilizes the nonparametric kernel regression method to estimate a measure of distance between the models stated under the null hypothesis. The bootstraped version of the test allows to approximate errors involved in the asymptotic hypothesis test. The paper also develops a Mathematica Code for the test algorithm.

  10. Monitoring coastal marshes biomass with CASI: a comparison of parametric and non-parametric models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mo, Y.; Kearney, M.

    2017-12-01

    Coastal marshes are important carbon sinks that face multiple natural and anthropogenic stresses. Optical remote sensing is a powerful tool for closely monitoring the biomass of coastal marshes. However, application of hyperspectral sensors on assessing the biomass of diverse coastal marsh ecosystems is limited. This study samples spectral and biophysical data from coastal freshwater, intermediate, brackish, and saline marshes in Louisiana, and develops parametric and non-parametric models for using the Compact Airborne Spectrographic Imager (CASI) to retrieve the marshes' biomass. Linear models and random forest models are developed from simulated CASI data (48 bands, 380-1050 nm, bandwidth 14 nm). Linear models are also developed using narrowband vegetation indices computed from all possible band combinations from the blue, red, and near infrared wavelengths. It is found that the linear models derived from the optimal narrowband vegetation indices provide strong predictions for the marshes' Leaf Area Index (LAI; R2 > 0.74 for ARVI), but not for their Aboveground Green Biomass (AGB; R2 > 0.25). The linear models derived from the simulated CASI data strongly predict the marshes' LAI (R2 = 0.93) and AGB (R2 = 0.71) and have 27 and 30 bands/variables in the final models through stepwise regression, respectively. The random forest models derived from the simulated CASI data also strongly predict the marshes' LAI and AGB (R2 = 0.91 and 0.84, respectively), where the most important variables for predicting LAI are near infrared bands at 784 and 756 nm and for predicting ABG are red bands at 684 and 670 nm. In sum, the random forest model is preferable for assessing coastal marsh biomass using CASI data as it offers high R2 for both LAI and AGB. The superior performance of the random forest model is likely to due to that it fully utilizes the full-spectrum data and makes no assumption of the approximate normality of the sampling population. This study offers solutions

  11. A Seemingly Unrelated Poisson Regression Model

    OpenAIRE

    King, Gary

    1989-01-01

    This article introduces a new estimator for the analysis of two contemporaneously correlated endogenous event count variables. This seemingly unrelated Poisson regression model (SUPREME) estimator combines the efficiencies created by single equation Poisson regression model estimators and insights from "seemingly unrelated" linear regression models.

  12. A spatio-temporal nonparametric Bayesian variable selection model of fMRI data for clustering correlated time courses.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Linlin; Guindani, Michele; Versace, Francesco; Vannucci, Marina

    2014-07-15

    In this paper we present a novel wavelet-based Bayesian nonparametric regression model for the analysis of functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) data. Our goal is to provide a joint analytical framework that allows to detect regions of the brain which exhibit neuronal activity in response to a stimulus and, simultaneously, infer the association, or clustering, of spatially remote voxels that exhibit fMRI time series with similar characteristics. We start by modeling the data with a hemodynamic response function (HRF) with a voxel-dependent shape parameter. We detect regions of the brain activated in response to a given stimulus by using mixture priors with a spike at zero on the coefficients of the regression model. We account for the complex spatial correlation structure of the brain by using a Markov random field (MRF) prior on the parameters guiding the selection of the activated voxels, therefore capturing correlation among nearby voxels. In order to infer association of the voxel time courses, we assume correlated errors, in particular long memory, and exploit the whitening properties of discrete wavelet transforms. Furthermore, we achieve clustering of the voxels by imposing a Dirichlet process (DP) prior on the parameters of the long memory process. For inference, we use Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling techniques that combine Metropolis-Hastings schemes employed in Bayesian variable selection with sampling algorithms for nonparametric DP models. We explore the performance of the proposed model on simulated data, with both block- and event-related design, and on real fMRI data. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  13. Hierarchical Bayesian nonparametric mixture models for clustering with variable relevance determination.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yau, Christopher; Holmes, Chris

    2011-07-01

    We propose a hierarchical Bayesian nonparametric mixture model for clustering when some of the covariates are assumed to be of varying relevance to the clustering problem. This can be thought of as an issue in variable selection for unsupervised learning. We demonstrate that by defining a hierarchical population based nonparametric prior on the cluster locations scaled by the inverse covariance matrices of the likelihood we arrive at a 'sparsity prior' representation which admits a conditionally conjugate prior. This allows us to perform full Gibbs sampling to obtain posterior distributions over parameters of interest including an explicit measure of each covariate's relevance and a distribution over the number of potential clusters present in the data. This also allows for individual cluster specific variable selection. We demonstrate improved inference on a number of canonical problems.

  14. Modelling fourier regression for time series data- a case study: modelling inflation in foods sector in Indonesia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prahutama, Alan; Suparti; Wahyu Utami, Tiani

    2018-03-01

    Regression analysis is an analysis to model the relationship between response variables and predictor variables. The parametric approach to the regression model is very strict with the assumption, but nonparametric regression model isn’t need assumption of model. Time series data is the data of a variable that is observed based on a certain time, so if the time series data wanted to be modeled by regression, then we should determined the response and predictor variables first. Determination of the response variable in time series is variable in t-th (yt), while the predictor variable is a significant lag. In nonparametric regression modeling, one developing approach is to use the Fourier series approach. One of the advantages of nonparametric regression approach using Fourier series is able to overcome data having trigonometric distribution. In modeling using Fourier series needs parameter of K. To determine the number of K can be used Generalized Cross Validation method. In inflation modeling for the transportation sector, communication and financial services using Fourier series yields an optimal K of 120 parameters with R-square 99%. Whereas if it was modeled by multiple linear regression yield R-square 90%.

  15. Nonparametric functional mapping of quantitative trait loci.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Jie; Wu, Rongling; Casella, George

    2009-03-01

    Functional mapping is a useful tool for mapping quantitative trait loci (QTL) that control dynamic traits. It incorporates mathematical aspects of biological processes into the mixture model-based likelihood setting for QTL mapping, thus increasing the power of QTL detection and the precision of parameter estimation. However, in many situations there is no obvious functional form and, in such cases, this strategy will not be optimal. Here we propose to use nonparametric function estimation, typically implemented with B-splines, to estimate the underlying functional form of phenotypic trajectories, and then construct a nonparametric test to find evidence of existing QTL. Using the representation of a nonparametric regression as a mixed model, the final test statistic is a likelihood ratio test. We consider two types of genetic maps: dense maps and general maps, and the power of nonparametric functional mapping is investigated through simulation studies and demonstrated by examples.

  16. Gaussian Process Regression Model in Spatial Logistic Regression

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sofro, A.; Oktaviarina, A.

    2018-01-01

    Spatial analysis has developed very quickly in the last decade. One of the favorite approaches is based on the neighbourhood of the region. Unfortunately, there are some limitations such as difficulty in prediction. Therefore, we offer Gaussian process regression (GPR) to accommodate the issue. In this paper, we will focus on spatial modeling with GPR for binomial data with logit link function. The performance of the model will be investigated. We will discuss the inference of how to estimate the parameters and hyper-parameters and to predict as well. Furthermore, simulation studies will be explained in the last section.

  17. Comparison of Parametric and Nonparametric Methods for Analyzing the Bias of a Numerical Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Isaac Mugume

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Numerical models are presently applied in many fields for simulation and prediction, operation, or research. The output from these models normally has both systematic and random errors. The study compared January 2015 temperature data for Uganda as simulated using the Weather Research and Forecast model with actual observed station temperature data to analyze the bias using parametric (the root mean square error (RMSE, the mean absolute error (MAE, mean error (ME, skewness, and the bias easy estimate (BES and nonparametric (the sign test, STM methods. The RMSE normally overestimates the error compared to MAE. The RMSE and MAE are not sensitive to direction of bias. The ME gives both direction and magnitude of bias but can be distorted by extreme values while the BES is insensitive to extreme values. The STM is robust for giving the direction of bias; it is not sensitive to extreme values but it does not give the magnitude of bias. The graphical tools (such as time series and cumulative curves show the performance of the model with time. It is recommended to integrate parametric and nonparametric methods along with graphical methods for a comprehensive analysis of bias of a numerical model.

  18. Parametric, nonparametric and parametric modelling of a chaotic circuit time series

    Science.gov (United States)

    Timmer, J.; Rust, H.; Horbelt, W.; Voss, H. U.

    2000-09-01

    The determination of a differential equation underlying a measured time series is a frequently arising task in nonlinear time series analysis. In the validation of a proposed model one often faces the dilemma that it is hard to decide whether possible discrepancies between the time series and model output are caused by an inappropriate model or by bad estimates of parameters in a correct type of model, or both. We propose a combination of parametric modelling based on Bock's multiple shooting algorithm and nonparametric modelling based on optimal transformations as a strategy to test proposed models and if rejected suggest and test new ones. We exemplify this strategy on an experimental time series from a chaotic circuit where we obtain an extremely accurate reconstruction of the observed attractor.

  19. Modeling the World Health Organization Disability Assessment Schedule II using non-parametric item response models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Galindo-Garre, Francisca; Hidalgo, María Dolores; Guilera, Georgina; Pino, Oscar; Rojo, J Emilio; Gómez-Benito, Juana

    2015-03-01

    The World Health Organization Disability Assessment Schedule II (WHO-DAS II) is a multidimensional instrument developed for measuring disability. It comprises six domains (getting around, self-care, getting along with others, life activities and participation in society). The main purpose of this paper is the evaluation of the psychometric properties for each domain of the WHO-DAS II with parametric and non-parametric Item Response Theory (IRT) models. A secondary objective is to assess whether the WHO-DAS II items within each domain form a hierarchy of invariantly ordered severity indicators of disability. A sample of 352 patients with a schizophrenia spectrum disorder is used in this study. The 36 items WHO-DAS II was administered during the consultation. Partial Credit and Mokken scale models are used to study the psychometric properties of the questionnaire. The psychometric properties of the WHO-DAS II scale are satisfactory for all the domains. However, we identify a few items that do not discriminate satisfactorily between different levels of disability and cannot be invariantly ordered in the scale. In conclusion the WHO-DAS II can be used to assess overall disability in patients with schizophrenia, but some domains are too general to assess functionality in these patients because they contain items that are not applicable to this pathology. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  20. Multiresponse semiparametric regression for modelling the effect of regional socio-economic variables on the use of information technology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wibowo, Wahyu; Wene, Chatrien; Budiantara, I. Nyoman; Permatasari, Erma Oktania

    2017-03-01

    Multiresponse semiparametric regression is simultaneous equation regression model and fusion of parametric and nonparametric model. The regression model comprise several models and each model has two components, parametric and nonparametric. The used model has linear function as parametric and polynomial truncated spline as nonparametric component. The model can handle both linearity and nonlinearity relationship between response and the sets of predictor variables. The aim of this paper is to demonstrate the application of the regression model for modeling of effect of regional socio-economic on use of information technology. More specific, the response variables are percentage of households has access to internet and percentage of households has personal computer. Then, predictor variables are percentage of literacy people, percentage of electrification and percentage of economic growth. Based on identification of the relationship between response and predictor variable, economic growth is treated as nonparametric predictor and the others are parametric predictors. The result shows that the multiresponse semiparametric regression can be applied well as indicate by the high coefficient determination, 90 percent.

  1. Non-parametric Bayesian graph models reveal community structure in resting state fMRI

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Kasper Winther; Madsen, Kristoffer H.; Siebner, Hartwig Roman

    2014-01-01

    Modeling of resting state functional magnetic resonance imaging (rs-fMRI) data using network models is of increasing interest. It is often desirable to group nodes into clusters to interpret the communication patterns between nodes. In this study we consider three different nonparametric Bayesian...... models for node clustering in complex networks. In particular, we test their ability to predict unseen data and their ability to reproduce clustering across datasets. The three generative models considered are the Infinite Relational Model (IRM), Bayesian Community Detection (BCD), and the Infinite...... between clusters. BCD restricts the between-cluster link probabilities to be strictly lower than within-cluster link probabilities to conform to the community structure typically seen in social networks. IDM only models a single between-cluster link probability, which can be interpreted as a background...

  2. Regression models of reactor diagnostic signals

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vavrin, J.

    1989-01-01

    The application is described of an autoregression model as the simplest regression model of diagnostic signals in experimental analysis of diagnostic systems, in in-service monitoring of normal and anomalous conditions and their diagnostics. The method of diagnostics is described using a regression type diagnostic data base and regression spectral diagnostics. The diagnostics is described of neutron noise signals from anomalous modes in the experimental fuel assembly of a reactor. (author)

  3. Variable importance in latent variable regression models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kvalheim, O.M.; Arneberg, R.; Bleie, O.; Rajalahti, T.; Smilde, A.K.; Westerhuis, J.A.

    2014-01-01

    The quality and practical usefulness of a regression model are a function of both interpretability and prediction performance. This work presents some new graphical tools for improved interpretation of latent variable regression models that can also assist in improved algorithms for variable

  4. Efficient nonparametric and asymptotic Bayesian model selection methods for attributed graph clustering

    KAUST Repository

    Xu, Zhiqiang

    2017-02-16

    Attributed graph clustering, also known as community detection on attributed graphs, attracts much interests recently due to the ubiquity of attributed graphs in real life. Many existing algorithms have been proposed for this problem, which are either distance based or model based. However, model selection in attributed graph clustering has not been well addressed, that is, most existing algorithms assume the cluster number to be known a priori. In this paper, we propose two efficient approaches for attributed graph clustering with automatic model selection. The first approach is a popular Bayesian nonparametric method, while the second approach is an asymptotic method based on a recently proposed model selection criterion, factorized information criterion. Experimental results on both synthetic and real datasets demonstrate that our approaches for attributed graph clustering with automatic model selection significantly outperform the state-of-the-art algorithm.

  5. Efficient nonparametric and asymptotic Bayesian model selection methods for attributed graph clustering

    KAUST Repository

    Xu, Zhiqiang; Cheng, James; Xiao, Xiaokui; Fujimaki, Ryohei; Muraoka, Yusuke

    2017-01-01

    Attributed graph clustering, also known as community detection on attributed graphs, attracts much interests recently due to the ubiquity of attributed graphs in real life. Many existing algorithms have been proposed for this problem, which are either distance based or model based. However, model selection in attributed graph clustering has not been well addressed, that is, most existing algorithms assume the cluster number to be known a priori. In this paper, we propose two efficient approaches for attributed graph clustering with automatic model selection. The first approach is a popular Bayesian nonparametric method, while the second approach is an asymptotic method based on a recently proposed model selection criterion, factorized information criterion. Experimental results on both synthetic and real datasets demonstrate that our approaches for attributed graph clustering with automatic model selection significantly outperform the state-of-the-art algorithm.

  6. Regression modeling of ground-water flow

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cooley, R.L.; Naff, R.L.

    1985-01-01

    Nonlinear multiple regression methods are developed to model and analyze groundwater flow systems. Complete descriptions of regression methodology as applied to groundwater flow models allow scientists and engineers engaged in flow modeling to apply the methods to a wide range of problems. Organization of the text proceeds from an introduction that discusses the general topic of groundwater flow modeling, to a review of basic statistics necessary to properly apply regression techniques, and then to the main topic: exposition and use of linear and nonlinear regression to model groundwater flow. Statistical procedures are given to analyze and use the regression models. A number of exercises and answers are included to exercise the student on nearly all the methods that are presented for modeling and statistical analysis. Three computer programs implement the more complex methods. These three are a general two-dimensional, steady-state regression model for flow in an anisotropic, heterogeneous porous medium, a program to calculate a measure of model nonlinearity with respect to the regression parameters, and a program to analyze model errors in computed dependent variables such as hydraulic head. (USGS)

  7. A semi-nonparametric mixture model for selecting functionally consistent proteins.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, Lianbo; Doerge, Rw

    2010-09-28

    High-throughput technologies have led to a new era of proteomics. Although protein microarray experiments are becoming more common place there are a variety of experimental and statistical issues that have yet to be addressed, and that will carry over to new high-throughput technologies unless they are investigated. One of the largest of these challenges is the selection of functionally consistent proteins. We present a novel semi-nonparametric mixture model for classifying proteins as consistent or inconsistent while controlling the false discovery rate and the false non-discovery rate. The performance of the proposed approach is compared to current methods via simulation under a variety of experimental conditions. We provide a statistical method for selecting functionally consistent proteins in the context of protein microarray experiments, but the proposed semi-nonparametric mixture model method can certainly be generalized to solve other mixture data problems. The main advantage of this approach is that it provides the posterior probability of consistency for each protein.

  8. Bayesian semiparametric regression models to characterize molecular evolution

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Datta Saheli

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Statistical models and methods that associate changes in the physicochemical properties of amino acids with natural selection at the molecular level typically do not take into account the correlations between such properties. We propose a Bayesian hierarchical regression model with a generalization of the Dirichlet process prior on the distribution of the regression coefficients that describes the relationship between the changes in amino acid distances and natural selection in protein-coding DNA sequence alignments. Results The Bayesian semiparametric approach is illustrated with simulated data and the abalone lysin sperm data. Our method identifies groups of properties which, for this particular dataset, have a similar effect on evolution. The model also provides nonparametric site-specific estimates for the strength of conservation of these properties. Conclusions The model described here is distinguished by its ability to handle a large number of amino acid properties simultaneously, while taking into account that such data can be correlated. The multi-level clustering ability of the model allows for appealing interpretations of the results in terms of properties that are roughly equivalent from the standpoint of molecular evolution.

  9. Using nonparametrics to specify a model to measure the value of travel time

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fosgerau, Mogens

    2007-01-01

    Using a range of nonparametric methods, the paper examines the specification of a model to evaluate the willingness-to-pay (WTP) for travel time changes from binomial choice data from a simple time-cost trading experiment. The analysis favours a model with random WTP as the only source...... of randomness over a model with fixed WTP which is linear in time and cost and has an additive random error term. Results further indicate that the distribution of log WTP can be described as a sum of a linear index fixing the location of the log WTP distribution and an independent random variable representing...... unobserved heterogeneity. This formulation is useful for parametric modelling. The index indicates that the WTP varies systematically with income and other individual characteristics. The WTP varies also with the time difference presented in the experiment which is in contradiction of standard utility theory....

  10. [From clinical judgment to linear regression model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Palacios-Cruz, Lino; Pérez, Marcela; Rivas-Ruiz, Rodolfo; Talavera, Juan O

    2013-01-01

    When we think about mathematical models, such as linear regression model, we think that these terms are only used by those engaged in research, a notion that is far from the truth. Legendre described the first mathematical model in 1805, and Galton introduced the formal term in 1886. Linear regression is one of the most commonly used regression models in clinical practice. It is useful to predict or show the relationship between two or more variables as long as the dependent variable is quantitative and has normal distribution. Stated in another way, the regression is used to predict a measure based on the knowledge of at least one other variable. Linear regression has as it's first objective to determine the slope or inclination of the regression line: Y = a + bx, where "a" is the intercept or regression constant and it is equivalent to "Y" value when "X" equals 0 and "b" (also called slope) indicates the increase or decrease that occurs when the variable "x" increases or decreases in one unit. In the regression line, "b" is called regression coefficient. The coefficient of determination (R 2 ) indicates the importance of independent variables in the outcome.

  11. Regression Models for Market-Shares

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Birch, Kristina; Olsen, Jørgen Kai; Tjur, Tue

    2005-01-01

    On the background of a data set of weekly sales and prices for three brands of coffee, this paper discusses various regression models and their relation to the multiplicative competitive-interaction model (the MCI model, see Cooper 1988, 1993) for market-shares. Emphasis is put on the interpretat......On the background of a data set of weekly sales and prices for three brands of coffee, this paper discusses various regression models and their relation to the multiplicative competitive-interaction model (the MCI model, see Cooper 1988, 1993) for market-shares. Emphasis is put...... on the interpretation of the parameters in relation to models for the total sales based on discrete choice models.Key words and phrases. MCI model, discrete choice model, market-shares, price elasitcity, regression model....

  12. Further Empirical Results on Parametric Versus Non-Parametric IRT Modeling of Likert-Type Personality Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maydeu-Olivares, Albert

    2005-01-01

    Chernyshenko, Stark, Chan, Drasgow, and Williams (2001) investigated the fit of Samejima's logistic graded model and Levine's non-parametric MFS model to the scales of two personality questionnaires and found that the graded model did not fit well. We attribute the poor fit of the graded model to small amounts of multidimensionality present in…

  13. Bayesian nonparametric modeling for comparison of single-neuron firing intensities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kottas, Athanasios; Behseta, Sam

    2010-03-01

    We propose a fully inferential model-based approach to the problem of comparing the firing patterns of a neuron recorded under two distinct experimental conditions. The methodology is based on nonhomogeneous Poisson process models for the firing times of each condition with flexible nonparametric mixture prior models for the corresponding intensity functions. We demonstrate posterior inferences from a global analysis, which may be used to compare the two conditions over the entire experimental time window, as well as from a pointwise analysis at selected time points to detect local deviations of firing patterns from one condition to another. We apply our method on two neurons recorded from the primary motor cortex area of a monkey's brain while performing a sequence of reaching tasks.

  14. Nonparametric test of consistency between cosmological models and multiband CMB measurements

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Aghamousa, Amir [Asia Pacific Center for Theoretical Physics, Pohang, Gyeongbuk 790-784 (Korea, Republic of); Shafieloo, Arman, E-mail: amir@apctp.org, E-mail: shafieloo@kasi.re.kr [Korea Astronomy and Space Science Institute, Daejeon 305-348 (Korea, Republic of)

    2015-06-01

    We present a novel approach to test the consistency of the cosmological models with multiband CMB data using a nonparametric approach. In our analysis we calibrate the REACT (Risk Estimation and Adaptation after Coordinate Transformation) confidence levels associated with distances in function space (confidence distances) based on the Monte Carlo simulations in order to test the consistency of an assumed cosmological model with observation. To show the applicability of our algorithm, we confront Planck 2013 temperature data with concordance model of cosmology considering two different Planck spectra combination. In order to have an accurate quantitative statistical measure to compare between the data and the theoretical expectations, we calibrate REACT confidence distances and perform a bias control using many realizations of the data. Our results in this work using Planck 2013 temperature data put the best fit ΛCDM model at 95% (∼ 2σ) confidence distance from the center of the nonparametric confidence set while repeating the analysis excluding the Planck 217 × 217 GHz spectrum data, the best fit ΛCDM model shifts to 70% (∼ 1σ) confidence distance. The most prominent features in the data deviating from the best fit ΛCDM model seems to be at low multipoles  18 < ℓ < 26 at greater than 2σ, ℓ ∼ 750 at ∼1 to 2σ and ℓ ∼ 1800 at greater than 2σ level. Excluding the 217×217 GHz spectrum the feature at ℓ ∼ 1800 becomes substantially less significance at ∼1 to 2σ confidence level. Results of our analysis based on the new approach we propose in this work are in agreement with other analysis done using alternative methods.

  15. Categorical regression dose-response modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    The goal of this training is to provide participants with training on the use of the U.S. EPA’s Categorical Regression soft¬ware (CatReg) and its application to risk assessment. Categorical regression fits mathematical models to toxicity data that have been assigned ord...

  16. Estimation of the lifetime distribution of mechatronic systems in the presence of a covariate: A comparison among parametric, semiparametric and nonparametric models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bobrowski, Sebastian; Chen, Hong; Döring, Maik; Jensen, Uwe; Schinköthe, Wolfgang

    2015-01-01

    In practice manufacturers may have lots of failure data of similar products using the same technology basis under different operating conditions. Thus, one can try to derive predictions for the distribution of the lifetime of newly developed components or new application environments through the existing data using regression models based on covariates. Three categories of such regression models are considered: a parametric, a semiparametric and a nonparametric approach. First, we assume that the lifetime is Weibull distributed, where its parameters are modelled as linear functions of the covariate. Second, the Cox proportional hazards model, well-known in Survival Analysis, is applied. Finally, a kernel estimator is used to interpolate between empirical distribution functions. In particular the last case is new in the context of reliability analysis. We propose a goodness of fit measure (GoF), which can be applied to all three types of regression models. Using this GoF measure we discuss a new model selection procedure. To illustrate this method of reliability prediction, the three classes of regression models are applied to real test data of motor experiments. Further the performance of the approaches is investigated by Monte Carlo simulations. - Highlights: • We estimate the lifetime distribution in the presence of a covariate. • Three types of regression models are considered and compared. • A new nonparametric estimator based on our particular data structure is introduced. • We propose a goodness of fit measure and show a new model selection procedure. • A case study with real data and Monte Carlo simulations are performed

  17. The relationship between multilevel models and non-parametric multilevel mixture models: Discrete approximation of intraclass correlation, random coefficient distributions, and residual heteroscedasticity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rights, Jason D; Sterba, Sonya K

    2016-11-01

    Multilevel data structures are common in the social sciences. Often, such nested data are analysed with multilevel models (MLMs) in which heterogeneity between clusters is modelled by continuously distributed random intercepts and/or slopes. Alternatively, the non-parametric multilevel regression mixture model (NPMM) can accommodate the same nested data structures through discrete latent class variation. The purpose of this article is to delineate analytic relationships between NPMM and MLM parameters that are useful for understanding the indirect interpretation of the NPMM as a non-parametric approximation of the MLM, with relaxed distributional assumptions. We define how seven standard and non-standard MLM specifications can be indirectly approximated by particular NPMM specifications. We provide formulas showing how the NPMM can serve as an approximation of the MLM in terms of intraclass correlation, random coefficient means and (co)variances, heteroscedasticity of residuals at level 1, and heteroscedasticity of residuals at level 2. Further, we discuss how these relationships can be useful in practice. The specific relationships are illustrated with simulated graphical demonstrations, and direct and indirect interpretations of NPMM classes are contrasted. We provide an R function to aid in implementing and visualizing an indirect interpretation of NPMM classes. An empirical example is presented and future directions are discussed. © 2016 The British Psychological Society.

  18. A Nonparametric Shape Prior Constrained Active Contour Model for Segmentation of Coronaries in CTA Images

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yin Wang

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available We present a nonparametric shape constrained algorithm for segmentation of coronary arteries in computed tomography images within the framework of active contours. An adaptive scale selection scheme, based on the global histogram information of the image data, is employed to determine the appropriate window size for each point on the active contour, which improves the performance of the active contour model in the low contrast local image regions. The possible leakage, which cannot be identified by using intensity features alone, is reduced through the application of the proposed shape constraint, where the shape of circular sampled intensity profile is used to evaluate the likelihood of current segmentation being considered vascular structures. Experiments on both synthetic and clinical datasets have demonstrated the efficiency and robustness of the proposed method. The results on clinical datasets have shown that the proposed approach is capable of extracting more detailed coronary vessels with subvoxel accuracy.

  19. A Nonparametric Operational Risk Modeling Approach Based on Cornish-Fisher Expansion

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiaoqian Zhu

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available It is generally accepted that the choice of severity distribution in loss distribution approach has a significant effect on the operational risk capital estimation. However, the usually used parametric approaches with predefined distribution assumption might be not able to fit the severity distribution accurately. The objective of this paper is to propose a nonparametric operational risk modeling approach based on Cornish-Fisher expansion. In this approach, the samples of severity are generated by Cornish-Fisher expansion and then used in the Monte Carlo simulation to sketch the annual operational loss distribution. In the experiment, the proposed approach is employed to calculate the operational risk capital charge for the overall Chinese banking. The experiment dataset is the most comprehensive operational risk dataset in China as far as we know. The results show that the proposed approach is able to use the information of high order moments and might be more effective and stable than the usually used parametric approach.

  20. Genomic outlier profile analysis: mixture models, null hypotheses, and nonparametric estimation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ghosh, Debashis; Chinnaiyan, Arul M

    2009-01-01

    In most analyses of large-scale genomic data sets, differential expression analysis is typically assessed by testing for differences in the mean of the distributions between 2 groups. A recent finding by Tomlins and others (2005) is of a different type of pattern of differential expression in which a fraction of samples in one group have overexpression relative to samples in the other group. In this work, we describe a general mixture model framework for the assessment of this type of expression, called outlier profile analysis. We start by considering the single-gene situation and establishing results on identifiability. We propose 2 nonparametric estimation procedures that have natural links to familiar multiple testing procedures. We then develop multivariate extensions of this methodology to handle genome-wide measurements. The proposed methodologies are compared using simulation studies as well as data from a prostate cancer gene expression study.

  1. Applied Regression Modeling A Business Approach

    CERN Document Server

    Pardoe, Iain

    2012-01-01

    An applied and concise treatment of statistical regression techniques for business students and professionals who have little or no background in calculusRegression analysis is an invaluable statistical methodology in business settings and is vital to model the relationship between a response variable and one or more predictor variables, as well as the prediction of a response value given values of the predictors. In view of the inherent uncertainty of business processes, such as the volatility of consumer spending and the presence of market uncertainty, business professionals use regression a

  2. Bayesian nonparametric generative models for causal inference with missing at random covariates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roy, Jason; Lum, Kirsten J; Zeldow, Bret; Dworkin, Jordan D; Re, Vincent Lo; Daniels, Michael J

    2018-03-26

    We propose a general Bayesian nonparametric (BNP) approach to causal inference in the point treatment setting. The joint distribution of the observed data (outcome, treatment, and confounders) is modeled using an enriched Dirichlet process. The combination of the observed data model and causal assumptions allows us to identify any type of causal effect-differences, ratios, or quantile effects, either marginally or for subpopulations of interest. The proposed BNP model is well-suited for causal inference problems, as it does not require parametric assumptions about the distribution of confounders and naturally leads to a computationally efficient Gibbs sampling algorithm. By flexibly modeling the joint distribution, we are also able to impute (via data augmentation) values for missing covariates within the algorithm under an assumption of ignorable missingness, obviating the need to create separate imputed data sets. This approach for imputing the missing covariates has the additional advantage of guaranteeing congeniality between the imputation model and the analysis model, and because we use a BNP approach, parametric models are avoided for imputation. The performance of the method is assessed using simulation studies. The method is applied to data from a cohort study of human immunodeficiency virus/hepatitis C virus co-infected patients. © 2018, The International Biometric Society.

  3. Bayesian nonparametric data analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Müller, Peter; Jara, Alejandro; Hanson, Tim

    2015-01-01

    This book reviews nonparametric Bayesian methods and models that have proven useful in the context of data analysis. Rather than providing an encyclopedic review of probability models, the book’s structure follows a data analysis perspective. As such, the chapters are organized by traditional data analysis problems. In selecting specific nonparametric models, simpler and more traditional models are favored over specialized ones. The discussed methods are illustrated with a wealth of examples, including applications ranging from stylized examples to case studies from recent literature. The book also includes an extensive discussion of computational methods and details on their implementation. R code for many examples is included in on-line software pages.

  4. Regression Models For Multivariate Count Data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Yiwen; Zhou, Hua; Zhou, Jin; Sun, Wei

    2017-01-01

    Data with multivariate count responses frequently occur in modern applications. The commonly used multinomial-logit model is limiting due to its restrictive mean-variance structure. For instance, analyzing count data from the recent RNA-seq technology by the multinomial-logit model leads to serious errors in hypothesis testing. The ubiquity of over-dispersion and complicated correlation structures among multivariate counts calls for more flexible regression models. In this article, we study some generalized linear models that incorporate various correlation structures among the counts. Current literature lacks a treatment of these models, partly due to the fact that they do not belong to the natural exponential family. We study the estimation, testing, and variable selection for these models in a unifying framework. The regression models are compared on both synthetic and real RNA-seq data.

  5. Nonparametric evaluation of quantitative traits in population-based association studies when the genetic model is unknown.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Konietschke, Frank; Libiger, Ondrej; Hothorn, Ludwig A

    2012-01-01

    Statistical association between a single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) genotype and a quantitative trait in genome-wide association studies is usually assessed using a linear regression model, or, in the case of non-normally distributed trait values, using the Kruskal-Wallis test. While linear regression models assume an additive mode of inheritance via equi-distant genotype scores, Kruskal-Wallis test merely tests global differences in trait values associated with the three genotype groups. Both approaches thus exhibit suboptimal power when the underlying inheritance mode is dominant or recessive. Furthermore, these tests do not perform well in the common situations when only a few trait values are available in a rare genotype category (disbalance), or when the values associated with the three genotype categories exhibit unequal variance (variance heterogeneity). We propose a maximum test based on Marcus-type multiple contrast test for relative effect sizes. This test allows model-specific testing of either dominant, additive or recessive mode of inheritance, and it is robust against variance heterogeneity. We show how to obtain mode-specific simultaneous confidence intervals for the relative effect sizes to aid in interpreting the biological relevance of the results. Further, we discuss the use of a related all-pairwise comparisons contrast test with range preserving confidence intervals as an alternative to Kruskal-Wallis heterogeneity test. We applied the proposed maximum test to the Bogalusa Heart Study dataset, and gained a remarkable increase in the power to detect association, particularly for rare genotypes. Our simulation study also demonstrated that the proposed non-parametric tests control family-wise error rate in the presence of non-normality and variance heterogeneity contrary to the standard parametric approaches. We provide a publicly available R library nparcomp that can be used to estimate simultaneous confidence intervals or compatible

  6. Marginal Bayesian nonparametric model for time to disease arrival of threatened amphibian populations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhou, Haiming; Hanson, Timothy; Knapp, Roland

    2015-12-01

    The global emergence of Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd) has caused the extinction of hundreds of amphibian species worldwide. It has become increasingly important to be able to precisely predict time to Bd arrival in a population. The data analyzed herein present a unique challenge in terms of modeling because there is a strong spatial component to Bd arrival time and the traditional proportional hazards assumption is grossly violated. To address these concerns, we develop a novel marginal Bayesian nonparametric survival model for spatially correlated right-censored data. This class of models assumes that the logarithm of survival times marginally follow a mixture of normal densities with a linear-dependent Dirichlet process prior as the random mixing measure, and their joint distribution is induced by a Gaussian copula model with a spatial correlation structure. To invert high-dimensional spatial correlation matrices, we adopt a full-scale approximation that can capture both large- and small-scale spatial dependence. An efficient Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm with delayed rejection is proposed for posterior computation, and an R package spBayesSurv is provided to fit the model. This approach is first evaluated through simulations, then applied to threatened frog populations in Sequoia-Kings Canyon National Park. © 2015, The International Biometric Society.

  7. Nonparametric estimation of the heterogeneity of a random medium using compound Poisson process modeling of wave multiple scattering.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Le Bihan, Nicolas; Margerin, Ludovic

    2009-07-01

    In this paper, we present a nonparametric method to estimate the heterogeneity of a random medium from the angular distribution of intensity of waves transmitted through a slab of random material. Our approach is based on the modeling of forward multiple scattering using compound Poisson processes on compact Lie groups. The estimation technique is validated through numerical simulations based on radiative transfer theory.

  8. Nonparametric modeling of US interest rate term structure dynamics and implications on the prices of derivative securities

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jiang, GJ

    1998-01-01

    This paper develops a nonparametric model of interest rate term structure dynamics based an a spot rate process that permits only positive interest rates and a market price of interest rate risk that precludes arbitrage opportunities. Both the spot rate process and the market price of interest rate

  9. Testing homogeneity in Weibull-regression models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bolfarine, Heleno; Valença, Dione M

    2005-10-01

    In survival studies with families or geographical units it may be of interest testing whether such groups are homogeneous for given explanatory variables. In this paper we consider score type tests for group homogeneity based on a mixing model in which the group effect is modelled as a random variable. As opposed to hazard-based frailty models, this model presents survival times that conditioned on the random effect, has an accelerated failure time representation. The test statistics requires only estimation of the conventional regression model without the random effect and does not require specifying the distribution of the random effect. The tests are derived for a Weibull regression model and in the uncensored situation, a closed form is obtained for the test statistic. A simulation study is used for comparing the power of the tests. The proposed tests are applied to real data sets with censored data.

  10. Mixed-effects regression models in linguistics

    CERN Document Server

    Heylen, Kris; Geeraerts, Dirk

    2018-01-01

    When data consist of grouped observations or clusters, and there is a risk that measurements within the same group are not independent, group-specific random effects can be added to a regression model in order to account for such within-group associations. Regression models that contain such group-specific random effects are called mixed-effects regression models, or simply mixed models. Mixed models are a versatile tool that can handle both balanced and unbalanced datasets and that can also be applied when several layers of grouping are present in the data; these layers can either be nested or crossed.  In linguistics, as in many other fields, the use of mixed models has gained ground rapidly over the last decade. This methodological evolution enables us to build more sophisticated and arguably more realistic models, but, due to its technical complexity, also introduces new challenges. This volume brings together a number of promising new evolutions in the use of mixed models in linguistics, but also addres...

  11. Two-component mixture cure rate model with spline estimated nonparametric components.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Lu; Du, Pang; Liang, Hua

    2012-09-01

    In some survival analysis of medical studies, there are often long-term survivors who can be considered as permanently cured. The goals in these studies are to estimate the noncured probability of the whole population and the hazard rate of the susceptible subpopulation. When covariates are present as often happens in practice, to understand covariate effects on the noncured probability and hazard rate is of equal importance. The existing methods are limited to parametric and semiparametric models. We propose a two-component mixture cure rate model with nonparametric forms for both the cure probability and the hazard rate function. Identifiability of the model is guaranteed by an additive assumption that allows no time-covariate interactions in the logarithm of hazard rate. Estimation is carried out by an expectation-maximization algorithm on maximizing a penalized likelihood. For inferential purpose, we apply the Louis formula to obtain point-wise confidence intervals for noncured probability and hazard rate. Asymptotic convergence rates of our function estimates are established. We then evaluate the proposed method by extensive simulations. We analyze the survival data from a melanoma study and find interesting patterns for this study. © 2011, The International Biometric Society.

  12. Non-parametric model selection for subject-specific topological organization of resting-state functional connectivity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ferrarini, Luca; Veer, Ilya M; van Lew, Baldur; Oei, Nicole Y L; van Buchem, Mark A; Reiber, Johan H C; Rombouts, Serge A R B; Milles, J

    2011-06-01

    In recent years, graph theory has been successfully applied to study functional and anatomical connectivity networks in the human brain. Most of these networks have shown small-world topological characteristics: high efficiency in long distance communication between nodes, combined with highly interconnected local clusters of nodes. Moreover, functional studies performed at high resolutions have presented convincing evidence that resting-state functional connectivity networks exhibits (exponentially truncated) scale-free behavior. Such evidence, however, was mostly presented qualitatively, in terms of linear regressions of the degree distributions on log-log plots. Even when quantitative measures were given, these were usually limited to the r(2) correlation coefficient. However, the r(2) statistic is not an optimal estimator of explained variance, when dealing with (truncated) power-law models. Recent developments in statistics have introduced new non-parametric approaches, based on the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test, for the problem of model selection. In this work, we have built on this idea to statistically tackle the issue of model selection for the degree distribution of functional connectivity at rest. The analysis, performed at voxel level and in a subject-specific fashion, confirmed the superiority of a truncated power-law model, showing high consistency across subjects. Moreover, the most highly connected voxels were found to be consistently part of the default mode network. Our results provide statistically sound support to the evidence previously presented in literature for a truncated power-law model of resting-state functional connectivity. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  13. Robust variable selection method for nonparametric differential equation models with application to nonlinear dynamic gene regulatory network analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lu, Tao

    2016-01-01

    The gene regulation network (GRN) evaluates the interactions between genes and look for models to describe the gene expression behavior. These models have many applications; for instance, by characterizing the gene expression mechanisms that cause certain disorders, it would be possible to target those genes to block the progress of the disease. Many biological processes are driven by nonlinear dynamic GRN. In this article, we propose a nonparametric differential equation (ODE) to model the nonlinear dynamic GRN. Specially, we address following questions simultaneously: (i) extract information from noisy time course gene expression data; (ii) model the nonlinear ODE through a nonparametric smoothing function; (iii) identify the important regulatory gene(s) through a group smoothly clipped absolute deviation (SCAD) approach; (iv) test the robustness of the model against possible shortening of experimental duration. We illustrate the usefulness of the model and associated statistical methods through a simulation and a real application examples.

  14. Multiple co-clustering based on nonparametric mixture models with heterogeneous marginal distributions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tokuda, Tomoki; Yoshimoto, Junichiro; Shimizu, Yu; Okada, Go; Takamura, Masahiro; Okamoto, Yasumasa; Yamawaki, Shigeto; Doya, Kenji

    2017-01-01

    We propose a novel method for multiple clustering, which is useful for analysis of high-dimensional data containing heterogeneous types of features. Our method is based on nonparametric Bayesian mixture models in which features are automatically partitioned (into views) for each clustering solution. This feature partition works as feature selection for a particular clustering solution, which screens out irrelevant features. To make our method applicable to high-dimensional data, a co-clustering structure is newly introduced for each view. Further, the outstanding novelty of our method is that we simultaneously model different distribution families, such as Gaussian, Poisson, and multinomial distributions in each cluster block, which widens areas of application to real data. We apply the proposed method to synthetic and real data, and show that our method outperforms other multiple clustering methods both in recovering true cluster structures and in computation time. Finally, we apply our method to a depression dataset with no true cluster structure available, from which useful inferences are drawn about possible clustering structures of the data.

  15. Multiple co-clustering based on nonparametric mixture models with heterogeneous marginal distributions.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tomoki Tokuda

    Full Text Available We propose a novel method for multiple clustering, which is useful for analysis of high-dimensional data containing heterogeneous types of features. Our method is based on nonparametric Bayesian mixture models in which features are automatically partitioned (into views for each clustering solution. This feature partition works as feature selection for a particular clustering solution, which screens out irrelevant features. To make our method applicable to high-dimensional data, a co-clustering structure is newly introduced for each view. Further, the outstanding novelty of our method is that we simultaneously model different distribution families, such as Gaussian, Poisson, and multinomial distributions in each cluster block, which widens areas of application to real data. We apply the proposed method to synthetic and real data, and show that our method outperforms other multiple clustering methods both in recovering true cluster structures and in computation time. Finally, we apply our method to a depression dataset with no true cluster structure available, from which useful inferences are drawn about possible clustering structures of the data.

  16. Multiple co-clustering based on nonparametric mixture models with heterogeneous marginal distributions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yoshimoto, Junichiro; Shimizu, Yu; Okada, Go; Takamura, Masahiro; Okamoto, Yasumasa; Yamawaki, Shigeto; Doya, Kenji

    2017-01-01

    We propose a novel method for multiple clustering, which is useful for analysis of high-dimensional data containing heterogeneous types of features. Our method is based on nonparametric Bayesian mixture models in which features are automatically partitioned (into views) for each clustering solution. This feature partition works as feature selection for a particular clustering solution, which screens out irrelevant features. To make our method applicable to high-dimensional data, a co-clustering structure is newly introduced for each view. Further, the outstanding novelty of our method is that we simultaneously model different distribution families, such as Gaussian, Poisson, and multinomial distributions in each cluster block, which widens areas of application to real data. We apply the proposed method to synthetic and real data, and show that our method outperforms other multiple clustering methods both in recovering true cluster structures and in computation time. Finally, we apply our method to a depression dataset with no true cluster structure available, from which useful inferences are drawn about possible clustering structures of the data. PMID:29049392

  17. Influence diagnostics in meta-regression model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shi, Lei; Zuo, ShanShan; Yu, Dalei; Zhou, Xiaohua

    2017-09-01

    This paper studies the influence diagnostics in meta-regression model including case deletion diagnostic and local influence analysis. We derive the subset deletion formulae for the estimation of regression coefficient and heterogeneity variance and obtain the corresponding influence measures. The DerSimonian and Laird estimation and maximum likelihood estimation methods in meta-regression are considered, respectively, to derive the results. Internal and external residual and leverage measure are defined. The local influence analysis based on case-weights perturbation scheme, responses perturbation scheme, covariate perturbation scheme, and within-variance perturbation scheme are explored. We introduce a method by simultaneous perturbing responses, covariate, and within-variance to obtain the local influence measure, which has an advantage of capable to compare the influence magnitude of influential studies from different perturbations. An example is used to illustrate the proposed methodology. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  18. AIRLINE ACTIVITY FORECASTING BY REGRESSION MODELS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Н. Білак

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available Proposed linear and nonlinear regression models, which take into account the equation of trend and seasonality indices for the analysis and restore the volume of passenger traffic over the past period of time and its prediction for future years, as well as the algorithm of formation of these models based on statistical analysis over the years. The desired model is the first step for the synthesis of more complex models, which will enable forecasting of passenger (income level airline with the highest accuracy and time urgency.

  19. Modeling oil production based on symbolic regression

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yang, Guangfei; Li, Xianneng; Wang, Jianliang; Lian, Lian; Ma, Tieju

    2015-01-01

    Numerous models have been proposed to forecast the future trends of oil production and almost all of them are based on some predefined assumptions with various uncertainties. In this study, we propose a novel data-driven approach that uses symbolic regression to model oil production. We validate our approach on both synthetic and real data, and the results prove that symbolic regression could effectively identify the true models beneath the oil production data and also make reliable predictions. Symbolic regression indicates that world oil production will peak in 2021, which broadly agrees with other techniques used by researchers. Our results also show that the rate of decline after the peak is almost half the rate of increase before the peak, and it takes nearly 12 years to drop 4% from the peak. These predictions are more optimistic than those in several other reports, and the smoother decline will provide the world, especially the developing countries, with more time to orchestrate mitigation plans. -- Highlights: •A data-driven approach has been shown to be effective at modeling the oil production. •The Hubbert model could be discovered automatically from data. •The peak of world oil production is predicted to appear in 2021. •The decline rate after peak is half of the increase rate before peak. •Oil production projected to decline 4% post-peak

  20. Adaptabilidade e estabilidade via regressão não paramétrica em genótipos de café Adaptability and stability based on nonparametric regression in coffee genotypes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Moysés Nascimento

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available O objetivo deste trabalho foi avaliar uma metodologia de análise de adaptabilidade e estabilidade fenotípica de genótipos de café baseada em regressão não paramétrica. A técnica utilizada difere das demais, pois reduz a influência na estimação do parâmetro de adaptabilidade de algum ponto extremo, ocasionado pela presença de genótipos com respostas demasiadamente diferenciadas a determinado ambiente. Foram utilizados dados provenientes de um experimento sobre produtividade média de grãos de 40 genótipos de café (Coffea canephora, com delineamento em blocos ao acaso, com seis repetições. Os genótipos foram avaliados em cinco anos (1996, 1998, 1999, 2000 e 2001, em dois locais (Sooretama e Marilândia, ES no total de dez ambientes. A metodologia proposta demonstrou ser adequada e eficiente, pois extingue os efeitos impróprios induzidos pela presença de pontos extremos e evita a recomendação incorreta de genótipos quanto à adaptabilidade.The objective of this work was to evaluate a methodology of phenotypic adaptability and stability analyses of coffee genotypes based on nonparametric regression. The technique used differs from other techniques because it reduces the influence of extreme points resulting from the presence of genotypes whose answers to a certain environment are too different on the estimation of the adaptability parameter. Data from an experiment studying the average yield of 40 coffee (Coffea canephora genotypes in a randomized block design with six replicates were used to evaluate the method. The genotypes were evaluated along five years (1996, 1998, 1999, 2000 and 2001 in two locations (Sooretama and Marilândia, ES, Brazil, in a total of ten environments. The methodology proposed proved adequate and efficient, since it eliminates the disproportionate effects induced by the presence of extreme points and avoids misleading recommendations of genotypes in terms of adaptability.

  1. Oscillometric blood pressure estimation by combining nonparametric bootstrap with Gaussian mixture model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Soojeong; Rajan, Sreeraman; Jeon, Gwanggil; Chang, Joon-Hyuk; Dajani, Hilmi R; Groza, Voicu Z

    2017-06-01

    Blood pressure (BP) is one of the most important vital indicators and plays a key role in determining the cardiovascular activity of patients. This paper proposes a hybrid approach consisting of nonparametric bootstrap (NPB) and machine learning techniques to obtain the characteristic ratios (CR) used in the blood pressure estimation algorithm to improve the accuracy of systolic blood pressure (SBP) and diastolic blood pressure (DBP) estimates and obtain confidence intervals (CI). The NPB technique is used to circumvent the requirement for large sample set for obtaining the CI. A mixture of Gaussian densities is assumed for the CRs and Gaussian mixture model (GMM) is chosen to estimate the SBP and DBP ratios. The K-means clustering technique is used to obtain the mixture order of the Gaussian densities. The proposed approach achieves grade "A" under British Society of Hypertension testing protocol and is superior to the conventional approach based on maximum amplitude algorithm (MAA) that uses fixed CR ratios. The proposed approach also yields a lower mean error (ME) and the standard deviation of the error (SDE) in the estimates when compared to the conventional MAA method. In addition, CIs obtained through the proposed hybrid approach are also narrower with a lower SDE. The proposed approach combining the NPB technique with the GMM provides a methodology to derive individualized characteristic ratio. The results exhibit that the proposed approach enhances the accuracy of SBP and DBP estimation and provides narrower confidence intervals for the estimates. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  2. Assessing Goodness of Fit in Item Response Theory with Nonparametric Models: A Comparison of Posterior Probabilities and Kernel-Smoothing Approaches

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sueiro, Manuel J.; Abad, Francisco J.

    2011-01-01

    The distance between nonparametric and parametric item characteristic curves has been proposed as an index of goodness of fit in item response theory in the form of a root integrated squared error index. This article proposes to use the posterior distribution of the latent trait as the nonparametric model and compares the performance of an index…

  3. Geographically weighted regression model on poverty indicator

    Science.gov (United States)

    Slamet, I.; Nugroho, N. F. T. A.; Muslich

    2017-12-01

    In this research, we applied geographically weighted regression (GWR) for analyzing the poverty in Central Java. We consider Gaussian Kernel as weighted function. The GWR uses the diagonal matrix resulted from calculating kernel Gaussian function as a weighted function in the regression model. The kernel weights is used to handle spatial effects on the data so that a model can be obtained for each location. The purpose of this paper is to model of poverty percentage data in Central Java province using GWR with Gaussian kernel weighted function and to determine the influencing factors in each regency/city in Central Java province. Based on the research, we obtained geographically weighted regression model with Gaussian kernel weighted function on poverty percentage data in Central Java province. We found that percentage of population working as farmers, population growth rate, percentage of households with regular sanitation, and BPJS beneficiaries are the variables that affect the percentage of poverty in Central Java province. In this research, we found the determination coefficient R2 are 68.64%. There are two categories of district which are influenced by different of significance factors.

  4. An Evaluation of Parametric and Nonparametric Models of Fish Population Response.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Haas, Timothy C.; Peterson, James T.; Lee, Danny C.

    1999-11-01

    Predicting the distribution or status of animal populations at large scales often requires the use of broad-scale information describing landforms, climate, vegetation, etc. These data, however, often consist of mixtures of continuous and categorical covariates and nonmultiplicative interactions among covariates, complicating statistical analyses. Using data from the interior Columbia River Basin, USA, we compared four methods for predicting the distribution of seven salmonid taxa using landscape information. Subwatersheds (mean size, 7800 ha) were characterized using a set of 12 covariates describing physiography, vegetation, and current land-use. The techniques included generalized logit modeling, classification trees, a nearest neighbor technique, and a modular neural network. We evaluated model performance using out-of-sample prediction accuracy via leave-one-out cross-validation and introduce a computer-intensive Monte Carlo hypothesis testing approach for examining the statistical significance of landscape covariates with the non-parametric methods. We found the modular neural network and the nearest-neighbor techniques to be the most accurate, but were difficult to summarize in ways that provided ecological insight. The modular neural network also required the most extensive computer resources for model fitting and hypothesis testing. The generalized logit models were readily interpretable, but were the least accurate, possibly due to nonlinear relationships and nonmultiplicative interactions among covariates. Substantial overlap among the statistically significant (P<0.05) covariates for each method suggested that each is capable of detecting similar relationships between responses and covariates. Consequently, we believe that employing one or more methods may provide greater biological insight without sacrificing prediction accuracy.

  5. On a Robust MaxEnt Process Regression Model with Sample-Selection

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hea-Jung Kim

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available In a regression analysis, a sample-selection bias arises when a dependent variable is partially observed as a result of the sample selection. This study introduces a Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt process regression model that assumes a MaxEnt prior distribution for its nonparametric regression function and finds that the MaxEnt process regression model includes the well-known Gaussian process regression (GPR model as a special case. Then, this special MaxEnt process regression model, i.e., the GPR model, is generalized to obtain a robust sample-selection Gaussian process regression (RSGPR model that deals with non-normal data in the sample selection. Various properties of the RSGPR model are established, including the stochastic representation, distributional hierarchy, and magnitude of the sample-selection bias. These properties are used in the paper to develop a hierarchical Bayesian methodology to estimate the model. This involves a simple and computationally feasible Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm that avoids analytical or numerical derivatives of the log-likelihood function of the model. The performance of the RSGPR model in terms of the sample-selection bias correction, robustness to non-normality, and prediction, is demonstrated through results in simulations that attest to its good finite-sample performance.

  6. Nonparametric tests for censored data

    CERN Document Server

    Bagdonavicus, Vilijandas; Nikulin, Mikhail

    2013-01-01

    This book concerns testing hypotheses in non-parametric models. Generalizations of many non-parametric tests to the case of censored and truncated data are considered. Most of the test results are proved and real applications are illustrated using examples. Theories and exercises are provided. The incorrect use of many tests applying most statistical software is highlighted and discussed.

  7. Adaptive regression for modeling nonlinear relationships

    CERN Document Server

    Knafl, George J

    2016-01-01

    This book presents methods for investigating whether relationships are linear or nonlinear and for adaptively fitting appropriate models when they are nonlinear. Data analysts will learn how to incorporate nonlinearity in one or more predictor variables into regression models for different types of outcome variables. Such nonlinear dependence is often not considered in applied research, yet nonlinear relationships are common and so need to be addressed. A standard linear analysis can produce misleading conclusions, while a nonlinear analysis can provide novel insights into data, not otherwise possible. A variety of examples of the benefits of modeling nonlinear relationships are presented throughout the book. Methods are covered using what are called fractional polynomials based on real-valued power transformations of primary predictor variables combined with model selection based on likelihood cross-validation. The book covers how to formulate and conduct such adaptive fractional polynomial modeling in the s...

  8. Bayesian Inference of a Multivariate Regression Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marick S. Sinay

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available We explore Bayesian inference of a multivariate linear regression model with use of a flexible prior for the covariance structure. The commonly adopted Bayesian setup involves the conjugate prior, multivariate normal distribution for the regression coefficients and inverse Wishart specification for the covariance matrix. Here we depart from this approach and propose a novel Bayesian estimator for the covariance. A multivariate normal prior for the unique elements of the matrix logarithm of the covariance matrix is considered. Such structure allows for a richer class of prior distributions for the covariance, with respect to strength of beliefs in prior location hyperparameters, as well as the added ability, to model potential correlation amongst the covariance structure. The posterior moments of all relevant parameters of interest are calculated based upon numerical results via a Markov chain Monte Carlo procedure. The Metropolis-Hastings-within-Gibbs algorithm is invoked to account for the construction of a proposal density that closely matches the shape of the target posterior distribution. As an application of the proposed technique, we investigate a multiple regression based upon the 1980 High School and Beyond Survey.

  9. General regression and representation model for classification.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jianjun Qian

    Full Text Available Recently, the regularized coding-based classification methods (e.g. SRC and CRC show a great potential for pattern classification. However, most existing coding methods assume that the representation residuals are uncorrelated. In real-world applications, this assumption does not hold. In this paper, we take account of the correlations of the representation residuals and develop a general regression and representation model (GRR for classification. GRR not only has advantages of CRC, but also takes full use of the prior information (e.g. the correlations between representation residuals and representation coefficients and the specific information (weight matrix of image pixels to enhance the classification performance. GRR uses the generalized Tikhonov regularization and K Nearest Neighbors to learn the prior information from the training data. Meanwhile, the specific information is obtained by using an iterative algorithm to update the feature (or image pixel weights of the test sample. With the proposed model as a platform, we design two classifiers: basic general regression and representation classifier (B-GRR and robust general regression and representation classifier (R-GRR. The experimental results demonstrate the performance advantages of proposed methods over state-of-the-art algorithms.

  10. Confidence bands for inverse regression models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Birke, Melanie; Bissantz, Nicolai; Holzmann, Hajo

    2010-01-01

    We construct uniform confidence bands for the regression function in inverse, homoscedastic regression models with convolution-type operators. Here, the convolution is between two non-periodic functions on the whole real line rather than between two periodic functions on a compact interval, since the former situation arguably arises more often in applications. First, following Bickel and Rosenblatt (1973 Ann. Stat. 1 1071–95) we construct asymptotic confidence bands which are based on strong approximations and on a limit theorem for the supremum of a stationary Gaussian process. Further, we propose bootstrap confidence bands based on the residual bootstrap and prove consistency of the bootstrap procedure. A simulation study shows that the bootstrap confidence bands perform reasonably well for moderate sample sizes. Finally, we apply our method to data from a gel electrophoresis experiment with genetically engineered neuronal receptor subunits incubated with rat brain extract

  11. Statistical analysis of water-quality data containing multiple detection limits II: S-language software for nonparametric distribution modeling and hypothesis testing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, L.; Helsel, D.

    2007-01-01

    Analysis of low concentrations of trace contaminants in environmental media often results in left-censored data that are below some limit of analytical precision. Interpretation of values becomes complicated when there are multiple detection limits in the data-perhaps as a result of changing analytical precision over time. Parametric and semi-parametric methods, such as maximum likelihood estimation and robust regression on order statistics, can be employed to model distributions of multiply censored data and provide estimates of summary statistics. However, these methods are based on assumptions about the underlying distribution of data. Nonparametric methods provide an alternative that does not require such assumptions. A standard nonparametric method for estimating summary statistics of multiply-censored data is the Kaplan-Meier (K-M) method. This method has seen widespread usage in the medical sciences within a general framework termed "survival analysis" where it is employed with right-censored time-to-failure data. However, K-M methods are equally valid for the left-censored data common in the geosciences. Our S-language software provides an analytical framework based on K-M methods that is tailored to the needs of the earth and environmental sciences community. This includes routines for the generation of empirical cumulative distribution functions, prediction or exceedance probabilities, and related confidence limits computation. Additionally, our software contains K-M-based routines for nonparametric hypothesis testing among an unlimited number of grouping variables. A primary characteristic of K-M methods is that they do not perform extrapolation and interpolation. Thus, these routines cannot be used to model statistics beyond the observed data range or when linear interpolation is desired. For such applications, the aforementioned parametric and semi-parametric methods must be used.

  12. Regression analysis of informative current status data with the additive hazards model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Shishun; Hu, Tao; Ma, Ling; Wang, Peijie; Sun, Jianguo

    2015-04-01

    This paper discusses regression analysis of current status failure time data arising from the additive hazards model in the presence of informative censoring. Many methods have been developed for regression analysis of current status data under various regression models if the censoring is noninformative, and also there exists a large literature on parametric analysis of informative current status data in the context of tumorgenicity experiments. In this paper, a semiparametric maximum likelihood estimation procedure is presented and in the method, the copula model is employed to describe the relationship between the failure time of interest and the censoring time. Furthermore, I-splines are used to approximate the nonparametric functions involved and the asymptotic consistency and normality of the proposed estimators are established. A simulation study is conducted and indicates that the proposed approach works well for practical situations. An illustrative example is also provided.

  13. Complex Environmental Data Modelling Using Adaptive General Regression Neural Networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kanevski, Mikhail

    2015-04-01

    The research deals with an adaptation and application of Adaptive General Regression Neural Networks (GRNN) to high dimensional environmental data. GRNN [1,2,3] are efficient modelling tools both for spatial and temporal data and are based on nonparametric kernel methods closely related to classical Nadaraya-Watson estimator. Adaptive GRNN, using anisotropic kernels, can be also applied for features selection tasks when working with high dimensional data [1,3]. In the present research Adaptive GRNN are used to study geospatial data predictability and relevant feature selection using both simulated and real data case studies. The original raw data were either three dimensional monthly precipitation data or monthly wind speeds embedded into 13 dimensional space constructed by geographical coordinates and geo-features calculated from digital elevation model. GRNN were applied in two different ways: 1) adaptive GRNN with the resulting list of features ordered according to their relevancy; and 2) adaptive GRNN applied to evaluate all possible models N [in case of wind fields N=(2^13 -1)=8191] and rank them according to the cross-validation error. In both cases training were carried out applying leave-one-out procedure. An important result of the study is that the set of the most relevant features depends on the month (strong seasonal effect) and year. The predictabilities of precipitation and wind field patterns, estimated using the cross-validation and testing errors of raw and shuffled data, were studied in detail. The results of both approaches were qualitatively and quantitatively compared. In conclusion, Adaptive GRNN with their ability to select features and efficient modelling of complex high dimensional data can be widely used in automatic/on-line mapping and as an integrated part of environmental decision support systems. 1. Kanevski M., Pozdnoukhov A., Timonin V. Machine Learning for Spatial Environmental Data. Theory, applications and software. EPFL Press

  14. Nonparametric estimation in an "illness-death" model when all transition times are interval censored

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Frydman, Halina; Gerds, Thomas; Grøn, Randi

    2013-01-01

    We develop nonparametric maximum likelihood estimation for the parameters of an irreversible Markov chain on states {0,1,2} from the observations with interval censored times of 0 → 1, 0 → 2 and 1 → 2 transitions. The distinguishing aspect of the data is that, in addition to all transition times ...

  15. Multitask Quantile Regression under the Transnormal Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fan, Jianqing; Xue, Lingzhou; Zou, Hui

    2016-01-01

    We consider estimating multi-task quantile regression under the transnormal model, with focus on high-dimensional setting. We derive a surprisingly simple closed-form solution through rank-based covariance regularization. In particular, we propose the rank-based ℓ 1 penalization with positive definite constraints for estimating sparse covariance matrices, and the rank-based banded Cholesky decomposition regularization for estimating banded precision matrices. By taking advantage of alternating direction method of multipliers, nearest correlation matrix projection is introduced that inherits sampling properties of the unprojected one. Our work combines strengths of quantile regression and rank-based covariance regularization to simultaneously deal with nonlinearity and nonnormality for high-dimensional regression. Furthermore, the proposed method strikes a good balance between robustness and efficiency, achieves the "oracle"-like convergence rate, and provides the provable prediction interval under the high-dimensional setting. The finite-sample performance of the proposed method is also examined. The performance of our proposed rank-based method is demonstrated in a real application to analyze the protein mass spectroscopy data.

  16. Crime Modeling using Spatial Regression Approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saleh Ahmar, Ansari; Adiatma; Kasim Aidid, M.

    2018-01-01

    Act of criminality in Indonesia increased both variety and quantity every year. As murder, rape, assault, vandalism, theft, fraud, fencing, and other cases that make people feel unsafe. Risk of society exposed to crime is the number of reported cases in the police institution. The higher of the number of reporter to the police institution then the number of crime in the region is increasing. In this research, modeling criminality in South Sulawesi, Indonesia with the dependent variable used is the society exposed to the risk of crime. Modelling done by area approach is the using Spatial Autoregressive (SAR) and Spatial Error Model (SEM) methods. The independent variable used is the population density, the number of poor population, GDP per capita, unemployment and the human development index (HDI). Based on the analysis using spatial regression can be shown that there are no dependencies spatial both lag or errors in South Sulawesi.

  17. Essays on parametric and nonparametric modeling and estimation with applications to energy economics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gao, Weiyu

    My dissertation research is composed of two parts: a theoretical part on semiparametric efficient estimation and an applied part in energy economics under different dynamic settings. The essays are related in terms of their applications as well as the way in which models are constructed and estimated. In the first essay, efficient estimation of the partially linear model is studied. We work out the efficient score functions and efficiency bounds under four stochastic restrictions---independence, conditional symmetry, conditional zero mean, and partially conditional zero mean. A feasible efficient estimation method for the linear part of the model is developed based on the efficient score. A battery of specification test that allows for choosing between the alternative assumptions is provided. A Monte Carlo simulation is also conducted. The second essay presents a dynamic optimization model for a stylized oilfield resembling the largest developed light oil field in Saudi Arabia, Ghawar. We use data from different sources to estimate the oil production cost function and the revenue function. We pay particular attention to the dynamic aspect of the oil production by employing petroleum-engineering software to simulate the interaction between control variables and reservoir state variables. Optimal solutions are studied under different scenarios to account for the possible changes in the exogenous variables and the uncertainty about the forecasts. The third essay examines the effect of oil price volatility on the level of innovation displayed by the U.S. economy. A measure of innovation is calculated by decomposing an output-based Malmquist index. We also construct a nonparametric measure for oil price volatility. Technical change and oil price volatility are then placed in a VAR system with oil price and a variable indicative of monetary policy. The system is estimated and analyzed for significant relationships. We find that oil price volatility displays a significant

  18. AN APPLICATION OF FUNCTIONAL MULTIVARIATE REGRESSION MODEL TO MULTICLASS CLASSIFICATION

    OpenAIRE

    Krzyśko, Mirosław; Smaga, Łukasz

    2017-01-01

    In this paper, the scale response functional multivariate regression model is considered. By using the basis functions representation of functional predictors and regression coefficients, this model is rewritten as a multivariate regression model. This representation of the functional multivariate regression model is used for multiclass classification for multivariate functional data. Computational experiments performed on real labelled data sets demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed ...

  19. Modeling intensive longitudinal data with mixtures of nonparametric trajectories and time-varying effects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dziak, John J; Li, Runze; Tan, Xianming; Shiffman, Saul; Shiyko, Mariya P

    2015-12-01

    Behavioral scientists increasingly collect intensive longitudinal data (ILD), in which phenomena are measured at high frequency and in real time. In many such studies, it is of interest to describe the pattern of change over time in important variables as well as the changing nature of the relationship between variables. Individuals' trajectories on variables of interest may be far from linear, and the predictive relationship between variables of interest and related covariates may also change over time in a nonlinear way. Time-varying effect models (TVEMs; see Tan, Shiyko, Li, Li, & Dierker, 2012) address these needs by allowing regression coefficients to be smooth, nonlinear functions of time rather than constants. However, it is possible that not only observed covariates but also unknown, latent variables may be related to the outcome. That is, regression coefficients may change over time and also vary for different kinds of individuals. Therefore, we describe a finite mixture version of TVEM for situations in which the population is heterogeneous and in which a single trajectory would conceal important, interindividual differences. This extended approach, MixTVEM, combines finite mixture modeling with non- or semiparametric regression modeling, to describe a complex pattern of change over time for distinct latent classes of individuals. The usefulness of the method is demonstrated in an empirical example from a smoking cessation study. We provide a versatile SAS macro and R function for fitting MixTVEMs. (c) 2015 APA, all rights reserved).

  20. A non-parametric mixture model for genome-enabled prediction of genetic value for a quantitative trait.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gianola, Daniel; Wu, Xiao-Lin; Manfredi, Eduardo; Simianer, Henner

    2010-10-01

    A Bayesian nonparametric form of regression based on Dirichlet process priors is adapted to the analysis of quantitative traits possibly affected by cryptic forms of gene action, and to the context of SNP-assisted genomic selection, where the main objective is to predict a genomic signal on phenotype. The procedure clusters unknown genotypes into groups with distinct genetic values, but in a setting in which the number of clusters is unknown a priori, so that standard methods for finite mixture analysis do not work. The central assumption is that genetic effects follow an unknown distribution with some "baseline" family, which is a normal process in the cases considered here. A Bayesian analysis based on the Gibbs sampler produces estimates of the number of clusters, posterior means of genetic effects, a measure of credibility in the baseline distribution, as well as estimates of parameters of the latter. The procedure is illustrated with a simulation representing two populations. In the first one, there are 3 unknown QTL, with additive, dominance and epistatic effects; in the second, there are 10 QTL with additive, dominance and additive × additive epistatic effects. In the two populations, baseline parameters are inferred correctly. The Dirichlet process model infers the number of unique genetic values correctly in the first population, but it produces an understatement in the second one; here, the true number of clusters is over 900, and the model gives a posterior mean estimate of about 140, probably because more replication of genotypes is needed for correct inference. The impact on inferences of the prior distribution of a key parameter (M), and of the extent of replication, was examined via an analysis of mean body weight in 192 paternal half-sib families of broiler chickens, where each sire was genotyped for nearly 7,000 SNPs. In this small sample, it was found that inference about the number of clusters was affected by the prior distribution of M. For a

  1. Entrepreneurial intention modeling using hierarchical multiple regression

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marina Jeger

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available The goal of this study is to identify the contribution of effectuation dimensions to the predictive power of the entrepreneurial intention model over and above that which can be accounted for by other predictors selected and confirmed in previous studies. As is often the case in social and behavioral studies, some variables are likely to be highly correlated with each other. Therefore, the relative amount of variance in the criterion variable explained by each of the predictors depends on several factors such as the order of variable entry and sample specifics. The results show the modest predictive power of two dimensions of effectuation prior to the introduction of the theory of planned behavior elements. The article highlights the main advantages of applying hierarchical regression in social sciences as well as in the specific context of entrepreneurial intention formation, and addresses some of the potential pitfalls that this type of analysis entails.

  2. An Additive-Multiplicative Cox-Aalen Regression Model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Scheike, Thomas H.; Zhang, Mei-Jie

    2002-01-01

    Aalen model; additive risk model; counting processes; Cox regression; survival analysis; time-varying effects......Aalen model; additive risk model; counting processes; Cox regression; survival analysis; time-varying effects...

  3. Evaluation of model-based versus non-parametric monaural noise-reduction approaches for hearing aids.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harlander, Niklas; Rosenkranz, Tobias; Hohmann, Volker

    2012-08-01

    Single channel noise reduction has been well investigated and seems to have reached its limits in terms of speech intelligibility improvement, however, the quality of such schemes can still be advanced. This study tests to what extent novel model-based processing schemes might improve performance in particular for non-stationary noise conditions. Two prototype model-based algorithms, a speech-model-based, and a auditory-model-based algorithm were compared to a state-of-the-art non-parametric minimum statistics algorithm. A speech intelligibility test, preference rating, and listening effort scaling were performed. Additionally, three objective quality measures for the signal, background, and overall distortions were applied. For a better comparison of all algorithms, particular attention was given to the usage of the similar Wiener-based gain rule. The perceptual investigation was performed with fourteen hearing-impaired subjects. The results revealed that the non-parametric algorithm and the auditory model-based algorithm did not affect speech intelligibility, whereas the speech-model-based algorithm slightly decreased intelligibility. In terms of subjective quality, both model-based algorithms perform better than the unprocessed condition and the reference in particular for highly non-stationary noise environments. Data support the hypothesis that model-based algorithms are promising for improving performance in non-stationary noise conditions.

  4. Auto-associative Kernel Regression Model with Weighted Distance Metric for Instrument Drift Monitoring

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shin, Ho Cheol; Park, Moon Ghu; You, Skin

    2006-01-01

    Recently, many on-line approaches to instrument channel surveillance (drift monitoring and fault detection) have been reported worldwide. On-line monitoring (OLM) method evaluates instrument channel performance by assessing its consistency with other plant indications through parametric or non-parametric models. The heart of an OLM system is the model giving an estimate of the true process parameter value against individual measurements. This model gives process parameter estimate calculated as a function of other plant measurements which can be used to identify small sensor drifts that would require the sensor to be manually calibrated or replaced. This paper describes an improvement of auto associative kernel regression (AAKR) by introducing a correlation coefficient weighting on kernel distances. The prediction performance of the developed method is compared with conventional auto-associative kernel regression

  5. Separating environmental efficiency into production and abatement efficiency. A nonparametric model with application to U.S. power plants

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hampf, Benjamin

    2011-08-15

    In this paper we present a new approach to evaluate the environmental efficiency of decision making units. We propose a model that describes a two-stage process consisting of a production and an end-of-pipe abatement stage with the environmental efficiency being determined by the efficiency of both stages. Taking the dependencies between the two stages into account, we show how nonparametric methods can be used to measure environmental efficiency and to decompose it into production and abatement efficiency. For an empirical illustration we apply our model to an analysis of U.S. power plants.

  6. Using continuous time stochastic modelling and nonparametric statistics to improve the quality of first principles models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    A methodology is presented that combines modelling based on first principles and data based modelling into a modelling cycle that facilitates fast decision-making based on statistical methods. A strong feature of this methodology is that given a first principles model along with process data......, the corresponding modelling cycle model of the given system for a given purpose. A computer-aided tool, which integrates the elements of the modelling cycle, is also presented, and an example is given of modelling a fed-batch bioreactor....

  7. Nonparametric Bayesian inference in biostatistics

    CERN Document Server

    Müller, Peter

    2015-01-01

    As chapters in this book demonstrate, BNP has important uses in clinical sciences and inference for issues like unknown partitions in genomics. Nonparametric Bayesian approaches (BNP) play an ever expanding role in biostatistical inference from use in proteomics to clinical trials. Many research problems involve an abundance of data and require flexible and complex probability models beyond the traditional parametric approaches. As this book's expert contributors show, BNP approaches can be the answer. Survival Analysis, in particular survival regression, has traditionally used BNP, but BNP's potential is now very broad. This applies to important tasks like arrangement of patients into clinically meaningful subpopulations and segmenting the genome into functionally distinct regions. This book is designed to both review and introduce application areas for BNP. While existing books provide theoretical foundations, this book connects theory to practice through engaging examples and research questions. Chapters c...

  8. Source apportionment of speciated PM2.5 and non-parametric regressions of PM2.5 and PM(coarse) mass concentrations from Denver and Greeley, Colorado, and construction and evaluation of dichotomous filter samplers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Piedrahita, Ricardo A.

    The Denver Aerosol Sources and Health study (DASH) was a long-term study of the relationship between the variability in fine particulate mass and chemical constituents (PM2.5, particulate matter less than 2.5mum) and adverse health effects such as cardio-respiratory illnesses and mortality. Daily filter samples were chemically analyzed for multiple species. We present findings based on 2.8 years of DASH data, from 2003 to 2005. Multilinear Engine 2 (ME-2), a receptor-based source apportionment model was applied to the data to estimate source contributions to PM2.5 mass concentrations. This study relied on two different ME-2 models: (1) a 2-way model that closely reflects PMF-2; and (2) an enhanced model with meteorological data that used additional temporal and meteorological factors. The Coarse Rural Urban Sources and Health study (CRUSH) is a long-term study of the relationship between the variability in coarse particulate mass (PMcoarse, particulate matter between 2.5 and 10mum) and adverse health effects such as cardio-respiratory illnesses, pre-term births, and mortality. Hourly mass concentrations of PMcoarse and fine particulate matter (PM2.5) are measured using tapered element oscillating microbalances (TEOMs) with Filter Dynamics Measurement Systems (FDMS), at two rural and two urban sites. We present findings based on nine months of mass concentration data, including temporal trends, and non-parametric regressions (NPR) results, which were used to characterize the wind speed and wind direction relationships that might point to sources. As part of CRUSH, 1-year coarse and fine mode particulate matter filter sampling network, will allow us to characterize the chemical composition of the particulate matter collected and perform spatial comparisons. This work describes the construction and validation testing of four dichotomous filter samplers for this purpose. The use of dichotomous splitters with an approximate 2.5mum cut point, coupled with a 10mum cut

  9. Hierarchical regression analysis in structural Equation Modeling

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    de Jong, P.F.

    1999-01-01

    In a hierarchical or fixed-order regression analysis, the independent variables are entered into the regression equation in a prespecified order. Such an analysis is often performed when the extra amount of variance accounted for in a dependent variable by a specific independent variable is the main

  10. Poisson Mixture Regression Models for Heart Disease Prediction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mufudza, Chipo; Erol, Hamza

    2016-01-01

    Early heart disease control can be achieved by high disease prediction and diagnosis efficiency. This paper focuses on the use of model based clustering techniques to predict and diagnose heart disease via Poisson mixture regression models. Analysis and application of Poisson mixture regression models is here addressed under two different classes: standard and concomitant variable mixture regression models. Results show that a two-component concomitant variable Poisson mixture regression model predicts heart disease better than both the standard Poisson mixture regression model and the ordinary general linear Poisson regression model due to its low Bayesian Information Criteria value. Furthermore, a Zero Inflated Poisson Mixture Regression model turned out to be the best model for heart prediction over all models as it both clusters individuals into high or low risk category and predicts rate to heart disease componentwise given clusters available. It is deduced that heart disease prediction can be effectively done by identifying the major risks componentwise using Poisson mixture regression model.

  11. Marginal longitudinal semiparametric regression via penalized splines

    KAUST Repository

    Al Kadiri, M.

    2010-08-01

    We study the marginal longitudinal nonparametric regression problem and some of its semiparametric extensions. We point out that, while several elaborate proposals for efficient estimation have been proposed, a relative simple and straightforward one, based on penalized splines, has not. After describing our approach, we then explain how Gibbs sampling and the BUGS software can be used to achieve quick and effective implementation. Illustrations are provided for nonparametric regression and additive models.

  12. Marginal longitudinal semiparametric regression via penalized splines

    KAUST Repository

    Al Kadiri, M.; Carroll, R.J.; Wand, M.P.

    2010-01-01

    We study the marginal longitudinal nonparametric regression problem and some of its semiparametric extensions. We point out that, while several elaborate proposals for efficient estimation have been proposed, a relative simple and straightforward one, based on penalized splines, has not. After describing our approach, we then explain how Gibbs sampling and the BUGS software can be used to achieve quick and effective implementation. Illustrations are provided for nonparametric regression and additive models.

  13. Modeling maximum daily temperature using a varying coefficient regression model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Han Li; Xinwei Deng; Dong-Yum Kim; Eric P. Smith

    2014-01-01

    Relationships between stream water and air temperatures are often modeled using linear or nonlinear regression methods. Despite a strong relationship between water and air temperatures and a variety of models that are effective for data summarized on a weekly basis, such models did not yield consistently good predictions for summaries such as daily maximum temperature...

  14. Introduction to the use of regression models in epidemiology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bender, Ralf

    2009-01-01

    Regression modeling is one of the most important statistical techniques used in analytical epidemiology. By means of regression models the effect of one or several explanatory variables (e.g., exposures, subject characteristics, risk factors) on a response variable such as mortality or cancer can be investigated. From multiple regression models, adjusted effect estimates can be obtained that take the effect of potential confounders into account. Regression methods can be applied in all epidemiologic study designs so that they represent a universal tool for data analysis in epidemiology. Different kinds of regression models have been developed in dependence on the measurement scale of the response variable and the study design. The most important methods are linear regression for continuous outcomes, logistic regression for binary outcomes, Cox regression for time-to-event data, and Poisson regression for frequencies and rates. This chapter provides a nontechnical introduction to these regression models with illustrating examples from cancer research.

  15. Evaluation of parametric and nonparametric models to predict water flow; Avaliacao entre modelos parametricos e nao parametricos para previsao de vazoes afluentes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Marques, T.C.; Cruz Junior, G.; Vinhal, C. [Universidade Federal de Goias (UFG), Goiania, GO (Brazil). Escola de Engenharia Eletrica e de Computacao], Emails: thyago@eeec.ufg.br, gcruz@eeec.ufg.br, vinhal@eeec.ufg.br

    2009-07-01

    The goal of this paper is to present a methodology to carry out the seasonal stream flow forecasting using database of average monthly inflows of one Brazilian hydroelectric plant located at Grande, Tocantins, Paranaiba, Sao Francisco and Iguacu river's. The model is based on the Adaptive Network Based Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS), the non-parametric model. The performance of this model was compared with a periodic autoregressive model, the parametric model. The results show that the forecasting errors of the non-parametric model considered are significantly lower than the parametric model. (author)

  16. Parametric and non-parametric models for lifespan modeling of insulation systems in electrical machines

    OpenAIRE

    Salameh , Farah; Picot , Antoine; Chabert , Marie; Maussion , Pascal

    2017-01-01

    International audience; This paper describes an original statistical approach for the lifespan modeling of electric machine insulation materials. The presented models aim to study the effect of three main stress factors (voltage, frequency and temperature) and their interactions on the insulation lifespan. The proposed methodology is applied to two different insulation materials tested in partial discharge regime. Accelerated ageing tests are organized according to experimental optimization m...

  17. Model performance analysis and model validation in logistic regression

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rosa Arboretti Giancristofaro

    2007-10-01

    Full Text Available In this paper a new model validation procedure for a logistic regression model is presented. At first, we illustrate a brief review of different techniques of model validation. Next, we define a number of properties required for a model to be considered "good", and a number of quantitative performance measures. Lastly, we describe a methodology for the assessment of the performance of a given model by using an example taken from a management study.

  18. Logistic Regression Modeling of Diminishing Manufacturing Sources for Integrated Circuits

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Gravier, Michael

    1999-01-01

    .... The research identified logistic regression as a powerful tool for analysis of DMSMS and further developed twenty models attempting to identify the "best" way to model and predict DMSMS using logistic regression...

  19. Screen Wars, Star Wars, and Sequels: Nonparametric Reanalysis of Movie Profitability

    OpenAIRE

    W. D. Walls

    2012-01-01

    In this paper we use nonparametric statistical tools to quantify motion-picture profit. We quantify the unconditional distribution of profit, the distribution of profit conditional on stars and sequels, and we also model the conditional expectation of movie profits using a non- parametric data-driven regression model. The flexibility of the non-parametric approach accommodates the full range of possible relationships among the variables without prior specification of a functional form, thereb...

  20. Notes on the Implementation of Non-Parametric Statistics within the Westinghouse Realistic Large Break LOCA Evaluation Model (ASTRUM)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Frepoli, Cesare; Oriani, Luca

    2006-01-01

    In recent years, non-parametric or order statistics methods have been widely used to assess the impact of the uncertainties within Best-Estimate LOCA evaluation models. The bounding of the uncertainties is achieved with a direct Monte Carlo sampling of the uncertainty attributes, with the minimum trial number selected to 'stabilize' the estimation of the critical output values (peak cladding temperature (PCT), local maximum oxidation (LMO), and core-wide oxidation (CWO A non-parametric order statistics uncertainty analysis was recently implemented within the Westinghouse Realistic Large Break LOCA evaluation model, also referred to as 'Automated Statistical Treatment of Uncertainty Method' (ASTRUM). The implementation or interpretation of order statistics in safety analysis is not fully consistent within the industry. This has led to an extensive public debate among regulators and researchers which can be found in the open literature. The USNRC-approved Westinghouse method follows a rigorous implementation of the order statistics theory, which leads to the execution of 124 simulations within a Large Break LOCA analysis. This is a solid approach which guarantees that a bounding value (at 95% probability) of the 95 th percentile for each of the three 10 CFR 50.46 ECCS design acceptance criteria (PCT, LMO and CWO) is obtained. The objective of this paper is to provide additional insights on the ASTRUM statistical approach, with a more in-depth analysis of pros and cons of the order statistics and of the Westinghouse approach in the implementation of this statistical methodology. (authors)

  1. Bayesian Nonparametric Hidden Markov Models with application to the analysis of copy-number-variation in mammalian genomes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yau, C; Papaspiliopoulos, O; Roberts, G O; Holmes, C

    2011-01-01

    We consider the development of Bayesian Nonparametric methods for product partition models such as Hidden Markov Models and change point models. Our approach uses a Mixture of Dirichlet Process (MDP) model for the unknown sampling distribution (likelihood) for the observations arising in each state and a computationally efficient data augmentation scheme to aid inference. The method uses novel MCMC methodology which combines recent retrospective sampling methods with the use of slice sampler variables. The methodology is computationally efficient, both in terms of MCMC mixing properties, and robustness to the length of the time series being investigated. Moreover, the method is easy to implement requiring little or no user-interaction. We apply our methodology to the analysis of genomic copy number variation.

  2. Focused information criterion and model averaging based on weighted composite quantile regression

    KAUST Repository

    Xu, Ganggang

    2013-08-13

    We study the focused information criterion and frequentist model averaging and their application to post-model-selection inference for weighted composite quantile regression (WCQR) in the context of the additive partial linear models. With the non-parametric functions approximated by polynomial splines, we show that, under certain conditions, the asymptotic distribution of the frequentist model averaging WCQR-estimator of a focused parameter is a non-linear mixture of normal distributions. This asymptotic distribution is used to construct confidence intervals that achieve the nominal coverage probability. With properly chosen weights, the focused information criterion based WCQR estimators are not only robust to outliers and non-normal residuals but also can achieve efficiency close to the maximum likelihood estimator, without assuming the true error distribution. Simulation studies and a real data analysis are used to illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed procedure. © 2013 Board of the Foundation of the Scandinavian Journal of Statistics..

  3. A simple approach to power and sample size calculations in logistic regression and Cox regression models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vaeth, Michael; Skovlund, Eva

    2004-06-15

    For a given regression problem it is possible to identify a suitably defined equivalent two-sample problem such that the power or sample size obtained for the two-sample problem also applies to the regression problem. For a standard linear regression model the equivalent two-sample problem is easily identified, but for generalized linear models and for Cox regression models the situation is more complicated. An approximately equivalent two-sample problem may, however, also be identified here. In particular, we show that for logistic regression and Cox regression models the equivalent two-sample problem is obtained by selecting two equally sized samples for which the parameters differ by a value equal to the slope times twice the standard deviation of the independent variable and further requiring that the overall expected number of events is unchanged. In a simulation study we examine the validity of this approach to power calculations in logistic regression and Cox regression models. Several different covariate distributions are considered for selected values of the overall response probability and a range of alternatives. For the Cox regression model we consider both constant and non-constant hazard rates. The results show that in general the approach is remarkably accurate even in relatively small samples. Some discrepancies are, however, found in small samples with few events and a highly skewed covariate distribution. Comparison with results based on alternative methods for logistic regression models with a single continuous covariate indicates that the proposed method is at least as good as its competitors. The method is easy to implement and therefore provides a simple way to extend the range of problems that can be covered by the usual formulas for power and sample size determination. Copyright 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  4. The MIDAS Touch: Mixed Data Sampling Regression Models

    OpenAIRE

    Ghysels, Eric; Santa-Clara, Pedro; Valkanov, Rossen

    2004-01-01

    We introduce Mixed Data Sampling (henceforth MIDAS) regression models. The regressions involve time series data sampled at different frequencies. Technically speaking MIDAS models specify conditional expectations as a distributed lag of regressors recorded at some higher sampling frequencies. We examine the asymptotic properties of MIDAS regression estimation and compare it with traditional distributed lag models. MIDAS regressions have wide applicability in macroeconomics and �nance.

  5. Model selection in kernel ridge regression

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Exterkate, Peter

    2013-01-01

    Kernel ridge regression is a technique to perform ridge regression with a potentially infinite number of nonlinear transformations of the independent variables as regressors. This method is gaining popularity as a data-rich nonlinear forecasting tool, which is applicable in many different contexts....... The influence of the choice of kernel and the setting of tuning parameters on forecast accuracy is investigated. Several popular kernels are reviewed, including polynomial kernels, the Gaussian kernel, and the Sinc kernel. The latter two kernels are interpreted in terms of their smoothing properties......, and the tuning parameters associated to all these kernels are related to smoothness measures of the prediction function and to the signal-to-noise ratio. Based on these interpretations, guidelines are provided for selecting the tuning parameters from small grids using cross-validation. A Monte Carlo study...

  6. Non-parametric early seizure detection in an animal model of temporal lobe epilepsy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Talathi, Sachin S.; Hwang, Dong-Uk; Spano, Mark L.; Simonotto, Jennifer; Furman, Michael D.; Myers, Stephen M.; Winters, Jason T.; Ditto, William L.; Carney, Paul R.

    2008-03-01

    The performance of five non-parametric, univariate seizure detection schemes (embedding delay, Hurst scale, wavelet scale, nonlinear autocorrelation and variance energy) were evaluated as a function of the sampling rate of EEG recordings, the electrode types used for EEG acquisition, and the spatial location of the EEG electrodes in order to determine the applicability of the measures in real-time closed-loop seizure intervention. The criteria chosen for evaluating the performance were high statistical robustness (as determined through the sensitivity and the specificity of a given measure in detecting a seizure) and the lag in seizure detection with respect to the seizure onset time (as determined by visual inspection of the EEG signal by a trained epileptologist). An optimality index was designed to evaluate the overall performance of each measure. For the EEG data recorded with microwire electrode array at a sampling rate of 12 kHz, the wavelet scale measure exhibited better overall performance in terms of its ability to detect a seizure with high optimality index value and high statistics in terms of sensitivity and specificity.

  7. Linear regression crash prediction models : issues and proposed solutions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-05-01

    The paper develops a linear regression model approach that can be applied to : crash data to predict vehicle crashes. The proposed approach involves novice data aggregation : to satisfy linear regression assumptions; namely error structure normality ...

  8. Model-based Quantile Regression for Discrete Data

    KAUST Repository

    Padellini, Tullia; Rue, Haavard

    2018-01-01

    Quantile regression is a class of methods voted to the modelling of conditional quantiles. In a Bayesian framework quantile regression has typically been carried out exploiting the Asymmetric Laplace Distribution as a working likelihood. Despite

  9. Developing an immigration policy for Germany on the basis of a nonparametric labor market classification

    OpenAIRE

    Froelich, Markus; Puhani, Patrick

    2004-01-01

    Based on a nonparametrically estimated model of labor market classifications, this paper makes suggestions for immigration policy using data from western Germany in the 1990s. It is demonstrated that nonparametric regression is feasible in higher dimensions with only a few thousand observations. In sum, labor markets able to absorb immigrants are characterized by above average age and by professional occupations. On the other hand, labor markets for young workers in service occupations are id...

  10. Forecasting Ebola with a regression transmission model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jason Asher

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available We describe a relatively simple stochastic model of Ebola transmission that was used to produce forecasts with the lowest mean absolute error among Ebola Forecasting Challenge participants. The model enabled prediction of peak incidence, the timing of this peak, and final size of the outbreak. The underlying discrete-time compartmental model used a time-varying reproductive rate modeled as a multiplicative random walk driven by the number of infectious individuals. This structure generalizes traditional Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR disease modeling approaches and allows for the flexible consideration of outbreaks with complex trajectories of disease dynamics. Keywords: Ebola, Forecasting, Mathematical modeling, Bayesian inference

  11. Forecasting Ebola with a regression transmission model

    OpenAIRE

    Asher, Jason

    2017-01-01

    We describe a relatively simple stochastic model of Ebola transmission that was used to produce forecasts with the lowest mean absolute error among Ebola Forecasting Challenge participants. The model enabled prediction of peak incidence, the timing of this peak, and final size of the outbreak. The underlying discrete-time compartmental model used a time-varying reproductive rate modeled as a multiplicative random walk driven by the number of infectious individuals. This structure generalizes ...

  12. Model Selection in Kernel Ridge Regression

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Exterkate, Peter

    Kernel ridge regression is gaining popularity as a data-rich nonlinear forecasting tool, which is applicable in many different contexts. This paper investigates the influence of the choice of kernel and the setting of tuning parameters on forecast accuracy. We review several popular kernels......, including polynomial kernels, the Gaussian kernel, and the Sinc kernel. We interpret the latter two kernels in terms of their smoothing properties, and we relate the tuning parameters associated to all these kernels to smoothness measures of the prediction function and to the signal-to-noise ratio. Based...... on these interpretations, we provide guidelines for selecting the tuning parameters from small grids using cross-validation. A Monte Carlo study confirms the practical usefulness of these rules of thumb. Finally, the flexible and smooth functional forms provided by the Gaussian and Sinc kernels makes them widely...

  13. Bayesian quantile regression-based partially linear mixed-effects joint models for longitudinal data with multiple features.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Hanze; Huang, Yangxin; Wang, Wei; Chen, Henian; Langland-Orban, Barbara

    2017-01-01

    In longitudinal AIDS studies, it is of interest to investigate the relationship between HIV viral load and CD4 cell counts, as well as the complicated time effect. Most of common models to analyze such complex longitudinal data are based on mean-regression, which fails to provide efficient estimates due to outliers and/or heavy tails. Quantile regression-based partially linear mixed-effects models, a special case of semiparametric models enjoying benefits of both parametric and nonparametric models, have the flexibility to monitor the viral dynamics nonparametrically and detect the varying CD4 effects parametrically at different quantiles of viral load. Meanwhile, it is critical to consider various data features of repeated measurements, including left-censoring due to a limit of detection, covariate measurement error, and asymmetric distribution. In this research, we first establish a Bayesian joint models that accounts for all these data features simultaneously in the framework of quantile regression-based partially linear mixed-effects models. The proposed models are applied to analyze the Multicenter AIDS Cohort Study (MACS) data. Simulation studies are also conducted to assess the performance of the proposed methods under different scenarios.

  14. Modelling lecturer performance index of private university in Tulungagung by using survival analysis with multivariate adaptive regression spline

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hasyim, M.; Prastyo, D. D.

    2018-03-01

    Survival analysis performs relationship between independent variables and survival time as dependent variable. In fact, not all survival data can be recorded completely by any reasons. In such situation, the data is called censored data. Moreover, several model for survival analysis requires assumptions. One of the approaches in survival analysis is nonparametric that gives more relax assumption. In this research, the nonparametric approach that is employed is Multivariate Regression Adaptive Spline (MARS). This study is aimed to measure the performance of private university’s lecturer. The survival time in this study is duration needed by lecturer to obtain their professional certificate. The results show that research activities is a significant factor along with developing courses material, good publication in international or national journal, and activities in research collaboration.

  15. Regression and regression analysis time series prediction modeling on climate data of quetta, pakistan

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jafri, Y.Z.; Kamal, L.

    2007-01-01

    Various statistical techniques was used on five-year data from 1998-2002 of average humidity, rainfall, maximum and minimum temperatures, respectively. The relationships to regression analysis time series (RATS) were developed for determining the overall trend of these climate parameters on the basis of which forecast models can be corrected and modified. We computed the coefficient of determination as a measure of goodness of fit, to our polynomial regression analysis time series (PRATS). The correlation to multiple linear regression (MLR) and multiple linear regression analysis time series (MLRATS) were also developed for deciphering the interdependence of weather parameters. Spearman's rand correlation and Goldfeld-Quandt test were used to check the uniformity or non-uniformity of variances in our fit to polynomial regression (PR). The Breusch-Pagan test was applied to MLR and MLRATS, respectively which yielded homoscedasticity. We also employed Bartlett's test for homogeneity of variances on a five-year data of rainfall and humidity, respectively which showed that the variances in rainfall data were not homogenous while in case of humidity, were homogenous. Our results on regression and regression analysis time series show the best fit to prediction modeling on climatic data of Quetta, Pakistan. (author)

  16. Corporate prediction models, ratios or regression analysis?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bijnen, E.J.; Wijn, M.F.C.M.

    1994-01-01

    The models developed in the literature with respect to the prediction of a company s failure are based on ratios. It has been shown before that these models should be rejected on theoretical grounds. Our study of industrial companies in the Netherlands shows that the ratios which are used in

  17. STREAMFLOW AND WATER QUALITY REGRESSION MODELING ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    ... downstream Obigbo station show: consistent time-trends in degree of contamination; linear and non-linear relationships for water quality models against total dissolved solids (TDS), total suspended sediment (TSS), chloride, pH and sulphate; and non-linear relationship for streamflow and water quality transport models.

  18. Uncertainty in decision models analyzing cost-effectiveness : The joint distribution of incremental costs and effectiveness evaluated with a nonparametric bootstrap method

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hunink, Maria; Bult, J.R.; De Vries, J; Weinstein, MC

    1998-01-01

    Purpose. To illustrate the use of a nonparametric bootstrap method in the evaluation of uncertainty in decision models analyzing cost-effectiveness. Methods. The authors reevaluated a previously published cost-effectiveness analysis that used a Markov model comparing initial percutaneous

  19. Harmonic regression of Landsat time series for modeling attributes from national forest inventory data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilson, Barry T.; Knight, Joseph F.; McRoberts, Ronald E.

    2018-03-01

    Imagery from the Landsat Program has been used frequently as a source of auxiliary data for modeling land cover, as well as a variety of attributes associated with tree cover. With ready access to all scenes in the archive since 2008 due to the USGS Landsat Data Policy, new approaches to deriving such auxiliary data from dense Landsat time series are required. Several methods have previously been developed for use with finer temporal resolution imagery (e.g. AVHRR and MODIS), including image compositing and harmonic regression using Fourier series. The manuscript presents a study, using Minnesota, USA during the years 2009-2013 as the study area and timeframe. The study examined the relative predictive power of land cover models, in particular those related to tree cover, using predictor variables based solely on composite imagery versus those using estimated harmonic regression coefficients. The study used two common non-parametric modeling approaches (i.e. k-nearest neighbors and random forests) for fitting classification and regression models of multiple attributes measured on USFS Forest Inventory and Analysis plots using all available Landsat imagery for the study area and timeframe. The estimated Fourier coefficients developed by harmonic regression of tasseled cap transformation time series data were shown to be correlated with land cover, including tree cover. Regression models using estimated Fourier coefficients as predictor variables showed a two- to threefold increase in explained variance for a small set of continuous response variables, relative to comparable models using monthly image composites. Similarly, the overall accuracies of classification models using the estimated Fourier coefficients were approximately 10-20 percentage points higher than the models using the image composites, with corresponding individual class accuracies between six and 45 percentage points higher.

  20. Parameters Estimation of Geographically Weighted Ordinal Logistic Regression (GWOLR) Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zuhdi, Shaifudin; Retno Sari Saputro, Dewi; Widyaningsih, Purnami

    2017-06-01

    A regression model is the representation of relationship between independent variable and dependent variable. The dependent variable has categories used in the logistic regression model to calculate odds on. The logistic regression model for dependent variable has levels in the logistics regression model is ordinal. GWOLR model is an ordinal logistic regression model influenced the geographical location of the observation site. Parameters estimation in the model needed to determine the value of a population based on sample. The purpose of this research is to parameters estimation of GWOLR model using R software. Parameter estimation uses the data amount of dengue fever patients in Semarang City. Observation units used are 144 villages in Semarang City. The results of research get GWOLR model locally for each village and to know probability of number dengue fever patient categories.

  1. Multiattribute shopping models and ridge regression analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Timmermans, H.J.P.

    1981-01-01

    Policy decisions regarding retailing facilities essentially involve multiple attributes of shopping centres. If mathematical shopping models are to contribute to these decision processes, their structure should reflect the multiattribute character of retailing planning. Examination of existing

  2. Linear Regression Models for Estimating True Subsurface ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    47

    The objective is to minimize the processing time and computer memory required. 10 to carry out inversion .... to the mainland by two long bridges. .... term. In this approach, the model converges when the squared sum of the differences. 143.

  3. Moderation analysis using a two-level regression model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yuan, Ke-Hai; Cheng, Ying; Maxwell, Scott

    2014-10-01

    Moderation analysis is widely used in social and behavioral research. The most commonly used model for moderation analysis is moderated multiple regression (MMR) in which the explanatory variables of the regression model include product terms, and the model is typically estimated by least squares (LS). This paper argues for a two-level regression model in which the regression coefficients of a criterion variable on predictors are further regressed on moderator variables. An algorithm for estimating the parameters of the two-level model by normal-distribution-based maximum likelihood (NML) is developed. Formulas for the standard errors (SEs) of the parameter estimates are provided and studied. Results indicate that, when heteroscedasticity exists, NML with the two-level model gives more efficient and more accurate parameter estimates than the LS analysis of the MMR model. When error variances are homoscedastic, NML with the two-level model leads to essentially the same results as LS with the MMR model. Most importantly, the two-level regression model permits estimating the percentage of variance of each regression coefficient that is due to moderator variables. When applied to data from General Social Surveys 1991, NML with the two-level model identified a significant moderation effect of race on the regression of job prestige on years of education while LS with the MMR model did not. An R package is also developed and documented to facilitate the application of the two-level model.

  4. Alternative regression models to assess increase in childhood BMI

    OpenAIRE

    Beyerlein, Andreas; Fahrmeir, Ludwig; Mansmann, Ulrich; Toschke, André M

    2008-01-01

    Abstract Background Body mass index (BMI) data usually have skewed distributions, for which common statistical modeling approaches such as simple linear or logistic regression have limitations. Methods Different regression approaches to predict childhood BMI by goodness-of-fit measures and means of interpretation were compared including generalized linear models (GLMs), quantile regression and Generalized Additive Models for Location, Scale and Shape (GAMLSS). We analyzed data of 4967 childre...

  5. Support Vector Regression Model Based on Empirical Mode Decomposition and Auto Regression for Electric Load Forecasting

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hong-Juan Li

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available Electric load forecasting is an important issue for a power utility, associated with the management of daily operations such as energy transfer scheduling, unit commitment, and load dispatch. Inspired by strong non-linear learning capability of support vector regression (SVR, this paper presents a SVR model hybridized with the empirical mode decomposition (EMD method and auto regression (AR for electric load forecasting. The electric load data of the New South Wales (Australia market are employed for comparing the forecasting performances of different forecasting models. The results confirm the validity of the idea that the proposed model can simultaneously provide forecasting with good accuracy and interpretability.

  6. Bayesian Sensitivity Analysis of a Nonlinear Dynamic Factor Analysis Model with Nonparametric Prior and Possible Nonignorable Missingness.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tang, Niansheng; Chow, Sy-Miin; Ibrahim, Joseph G; Zhu, Hongtu

    2017-12-01

    Many psychological concepts are unobserved and usually represented as latent factors apprehended through multiple observed indicators. When multiple-subject multivariate time series data are available, dynamic factor analysis models with random effects offer one way of modeling patterns of within- and between-person variations by combining factor analysis and time series analysis at the factor level. Using the Dirichlet process (DP) as a nonparametric prior for individual-specific time series parameters further allows the distributional forms of these parameters to deviate from commonly imposed (e.g., normal or other symmetric) functional forms, arising as a result of these parameters' restricted ranges. Given the complexity of such models, a thorough sensitivity analysis is critical but computationally prohibitive. We propose a Bayesian local influence method that allows for simultaneous sensitivity analysis of multiple modeling components within a single fitting of the model of choice. Five illustrations and an empirical example are provided to demonstrate the utility of the proposed approach in facilitating the detection of outlying cases and common sources of misspecification in dynamic factor analysis models, as well as identification of modeling components that are sensitive to changes in the DP prior specification.

  7. Poisson Mixture Regression Models for Heart Disease Prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Erol, Hamza

    2016-01-01

    Early heart disease control can be achieved by high disease prediction and diagnosis efficiency. This paper focuses on the use of model based clustering techniques to predict and diagnose heart disease via Poisson mixture regression models. Analysis and application of Poisson mixture regression models is here addressed under two different classes: standard and concomitant variable mixture regression models. Results show that a two-component concomitant variable Poisson mixture regression model predicts heart disease better than both the standard Poisson mixture regression model and the ordinary general linear Poisson regression model due to its low Bayesian Information Criteria value. Furthermore, a Zero Inflated Poisson Mixture Regression model turned out to be the best model for heart prediction over all models as it both clusters individuals into high or low risk category and predicts rate to heart disease componentwise given clusters available. It is deduced that heart disease prediction can be effectively done by identifying the major risks componentwise using Poisson mixture regression model. PMID:27999611

  8. A contingency table approach to nonparametric testing

    CERN Document Server

    Rayner, JCW

    2000-01-01

    Most texts on nonparametric techniques concentrate on location and linear-linear (correlation) tests, with less emphasis on dispersion effects and linear-quadratic tests. Tests for higher moment effects are virtually ignored. Using a fresh approach, A Contingency Table Approach to Nonparametric Testing unifies and extends the popular, standard tests by linking them to tests based on models for data that can be presented in contingency tables.This approach unifies popular nonparametric statistical inference and makes the traditional, most commonly performed nonparametric analyses much more comp

  9. Nonparametric statistical inference

    CERN Document Server

    Gibbons, Jean Dickinson

    2010-01-01

    Overall, this remains a very fine book suitable for a graduate-level course in nonparametric statistics. I recommend it for all people interested in learning the basic ideas of nonparametric statistical inference.-Eugenia Stoimenova, Journal of Applied Statistics, June 2012… one of the best books available for a graduate (or advanced undergraduate) text for a theory course on nonparametric statistics. … a very well-written and organized book on nonparametric statistics, especially useful and recommended for teachers and graduate students.-Biometrics, 67, September 2011This excellently presente

  10. A test for the parameters of multiple linear regression models ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    A test for the parameters of multiple linear regression models is developed for conducting tests simultaneously on all the parameters of multiple linear regression models. The test is robust relative to the assumptions of homogeneity of variances and absence of serial correlation of the classical F-test. Under certain null and ...

  11. Mixed Frequency Data Sampling Regression Models: The R Package midasr

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eric Ghysels

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available When modeling economic relationships it is increasingly common to encounter data sampled at different frequencies. We introduce the R package midasr which enables estimating regression models with variables sampled at different frequencies within a MIDAS regression framework put forward in work by Ghysels, Santa-Clara, and Valkanov (2002. In this article we define a general autoregressive MIDAS regression model with multiple variables of different frequencies and show how it can be specified using the familiar R formula interface and estimated using various optimization methods chosen by the researcher. We discuss how to check the validity of the estimated model both in terms of numerical convergence and statistical adequacy of a chosen regression specification, how to perform model selection based on a information criterion, how to assess forecasting accuracy of the MIDAS regression model and how to obtain a forecast aggregation of different MIDAS regression models. We illustrate the capabilities of the package with a simulated MIDAS regression model and give two empirical examples of application of MIDAS regression.

  12. Impact of multicollinearity on small sample hydrologic regression models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kroll, Charles N.; Song, Peter

    2013-06-01

    Often hydrologic regression models are developed with ordinary least squares (OLS) procedures. The use of OLS with highly correlated explanatory variables produces multicollinearity, which creates highly sensitive parameter estimators with inflated variances and improper model selection. It is not clear how to best address multicollinearity in hydrologic regression models. Here a Monte Carlo simulation is developed to compare four techniques to address multicollinearity: OLS, OLS with variance inflation factor screening (VIF), principal component regression (PCR), and partial least squares regression (PLS). The performance of these four techniques was observed for varying sample sizes, correlation coefficients between the explanatory variables, and model error variances consistent with hydrologic regional regression models. The negative effects of multicollinearity are magnified at smaller sample sizes, higher correlations between the variables, and larger model error variances (smaller R2). The Monte Carlo simulation indicates that if the true model is known, multicollinearity is present, and the estimation and statistical testing of regression parameters are of interest, then PCR or PLS should be employed. If the model is unknown, or if the interest is solely on model predictions, is it recommended that OLS be employed since using more complicated techniques did not produce any improvement in model performance. A leave-one-out cross-validation case study was also performed using low-streamflow data sets from the eastern United States. Results indicate that OLS with stepwise selection generally produces models across study regions with varying levels of multicollinearity that are as good as biased regression techniques such as PCR and PLS.

  13. Predicting Lung Radiotherapy-Induced Pneumonitis Using a Model Combining Parametric Lyman Probit With Nonparametric Decision Trees

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Das, Shiva K.; Zhou Sumin; Zhang, Junan; Yin, F.-F.; Dewhirst, Mark W.; Marks, Lawrence B.

    2007-01-01

    Purpose: To develop and test a model to predict for lung radiation-induced Grade 2+ pneumonitis. Methods and Materials: The model was built from a database of 234 lung cancer patients treated with radiotherapy (RT), of whom 43 were diagnosed with pneumonitis. The model augmented the predictive capability of the parametric dose-based Lyman normal tissue complication probability (LNTCP) metric by combining it with weighted nonparametric decision trees that use dose and nondose inputs. The decision trees were sequentially added to the model using a 'boosting' process that enhances the accuracy of prediction. The model's predictive capability was estimated by 10-fold cross-validation. To facilitate dissemination, the cross-validation result was used to extract a simplified approximation to the complicated model architecture created by boosting. Application of the simplified model is demonstrated in two example cases. Results: The area under the model receiver operating characteristics curve for cross-validation was 0.72, a significant improvement over the LNTCP area of 0.63 (p = 0.005). The simplified model used the following variables to output a measure of injury: LNTCP, gender, histologic type, chemotherapy schedule, and treatment schedule. For a given patient RT plan, injury prediction was highest for the combination of pre-RT chemotherapy, once-daily treatment, female gender and lowest for the combination of no pre-RT chemotherapy and nonsquamous cell histologic type. Application of the simplified model to the example cases revealed that injury prediction for a given treatment plan can range from very low to very high, depending on the settings of the nondose variables. Conclusions: Radiation pneumonitis prediction was significantly enhanced by decision trees that added the influence of nondose factors to the LNTCP formulation

  14. A generalized multivariate regression model for modelling ocean wave heights

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, X. L.; Feng, Y.; Swail, V. R.

    2012-04-01

    In this study, a generalized multivariate linear regression model is developed to represent the relationship between 6-hourly ocean significant wave heights (Hs) and the corresponding 6-hourly mean sea level pressure (MSLP) fields. The model is calibrated using the ERA-Interim reanalysis of Hs and MSLP fields for 1981-2000, and is validated using the ERA-Interim reanalysis for 2001-2010 and ERA40 reanalysis of Hs and MSLP for 1958-2001. The performance of the fitted model is evaluated in terms of Pierce skill score, frequency bias index, and correlation skill score. Being not normally distributed, wave heights are subjected to a data adaptive Box-Cox transformation before being used in the model fitting. Also, since 6-hourly data are being modelled, lag-1 autocorrelation must be and is accounted for. The models with and without Box-Cox transformation, and with and without accounting for autocorrelation, are inter-compared in terms of their prediction skills. The fitted MSLP-Hs relationship is then used to reconstruct historical wave height climate from the 6-hourly MSLP fields taken from the Twentieth Century Reanalysis (20CR, Compo et al. 2011), and to project possible future wave height climates using CMIP5 model simulations of MSLP fields. The reconstructed and projected wave heights, both seasonal means and maxima, are subject to a trend analysis that allows for non-linear (polynomial) trends.

  15. Nonparametric methods for volatility density estimation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Es, van Bert; Spreij, P.J.C.; Zanten, van J.H.

    2009-01-01

    Stochastic volatility modelling of financial processes has become increasingly popular. The proposed models usually contain a stationary volatility process. We will motivate and review several nonparametric methods for estimation of the density of the volatility process. Both models based on

  16. Identification of Influential Points in a Linear Regression Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jan Grosz

    2011-03-01

    Full Text Available The article deals with the detection and identification of influential points in the linear regression model. Three methods of detection of outliers and leverage points are described. These procedures can also be used for one-sample (independentdatasets. This paper briefly describes theoretical aspects of several robust methods as well. Robust statistics is a powerful tool to increase the reliability and accuracy of statistical modelling and data analysis. A simulation model of the simple linear regression is presented.

  17. Pharmacokinetic modelling of intravenous tobramycin in adolescent and adult patients with cystic fibrosis using the nonparametric expectation maximization (NPEM) algorithm.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Touw, D J; Vinks, A A; Neef, C

    1997-06-01

    The availability of personal computer programs for individualizing drug dosage regimens has stimulated the interest in modelling population pharmacokinetics. Data from 82 adolescent and adult patients with cystic fibrosis (CF) who were treated with intravenous tobramycin because of an exacerbation of their pulmonary infection were analysed with a non-parametric expectation maximization (NPEM) algorithm. This algorithm estimates the entire discrete joint probability density of the pharmacokinetic parameters. It also provides traditional parametric statistics such as the means, standard deviation, median, covariances and correlations among the various parameters. It also provides graphic-2- and 3-dimensional representations of the marginal densities of the parameters investigated. Several models for intravenous tobramycin in adolescent and adult patients with CF were compared. Covariates were total body weight (for the volume of distribution) and creatinine clearance (for the total body clearance and elimination rate). Because of lack of data on patients with poor renal function, restricted models with non-renal clearance and the non-renal elimination rate constant fixed at literature values of 0.15 L/h and 0.01 h-1 were also included. In this population, intravenous tobramycin could be best described by median (+/-dispersion factor) volume of distribution per unit of total body weight of 0.28 +/- 0.05 L/kg, elimination rate constant of 0.25 +/- 0.10 h-1 and elimination rate constant per unit of creatinine clearance of 0.0008 +/- 0.0009 h-1/(ml/min/1.73 m2). Analysis of populations of increasing size showed that using a restricted model with a non-renal elimination rate constant fixed at 0.01 h-1, a model based on a population of only 10 to 20 patients, contained parameter values similar to those of the entire population and, using the full model, a larger population (at least 40 patients) was needed.

  18. Semiparametric regression during 2003–2007

    KAUST Repository

    Ruppert, David; Wand, M.P.; Carroll, Raymond J.

    2009-01-01

    Semiparametric regression is a fusion between parametric regression and nonparametric regression that integrates low-rank penalized splines, mixed model and hierarchical Bayesian methodology – thus allowing more streamlined handling of longitudinal and spatial correlation. We review progress in the field over the five-year period between 2003 and 2007. We find semiparametric regression to be a vibrant field with substantial involvement and activity, continual enhancement and widespread application.

  19. Gaussian process regression analysis for functional data

    CERN Document Server

    Shi, Jian Qing

    2011-01-01

    Gaussian Process Regression Analysis for Functional Data presents nonparametric statistical methods for functional regression analysis, specifically the methods based on a Gaussian process prior in a functional space. The authors focus on problems involving functional response variables and mixed covariates of functional and scalar variables.Covering the basics of Gaussian process regression, the first several chapters discuss functional data analysis, theoretical aspects based on the asymptotic properties of Gaussian process regression models, and new methodological developments for high dime

  20. Detection of epistatic effects with logic regression and a classical linear regression model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Malina, Magdalena; Ickstadt, Katja; Schwender, Holger; Posch, Martin; Bogdan, Małgorzata

    2014-02-01

    To locate multiple interacting quantitative trait loci (QTL) influencing a trait of interest within experimental populations, usually methods as the Cockerham's model are applied. Within this framework, interactions are understood as the part of the joined effect of several genes which cannot be explained as the sum of their additive effects. However, if a change in the phenotype (as disease) is caused by Boolean combinations of genotypes of several QTLs, this Cockerham's approach is often not capable to identify them properly. To detect such interactions more efficiently, we propose a logic regression framework. Even though with the logic regression approach a larger number of models has to be considered (requiring more stringent multiple testing correction) the efficient representation of higher order logic interactions in logic regression models leads to a significant increase of power to detect such interactions as compared to a Cockerham's approach. The increase in power is demonstrated analytically for a simple two-way interaction model and illustrated in more complex settings with simulation study and real data analysis.

  1. Random regression models for detection of gene by environment interaction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Meuwissen Theo HE

    2007-02-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Two random regression models, where the effect of a putative QTL was regressed on an environmental gradient, are described. The first model estimates the correlation between intercept and slope of the random regression, while the other model restricts this correlation to 1 or -1, which is expected under a bi-allelic QTL model. The random regression models were compared to a model assuming no gene by environment interactions. The comparison was done with regards to the models ability to detect QTL, to position them accurately and to detect possible QTL by environment interactions. A simulation study based on a granddaughter design was conducted, and QTL were assumed, either by assigning an effect independent of the environment or as a linear function of a simulated environmental gradient. It was concluded that the random regression models were suitable for detection of QTL effects, in the presence and absence of interactions with environmental gradients. Fixing the correlation between intercept and slope of the random regression had a positive effect on power when the QTL effects re-ranked between environments.

  2. Multiple regression and beyond an introduction to multiple regression and structural equation modeling

    CERN Document Server

    Keith, Timothy Z

    2014-01-01

    Multiple Regression and Beyond offers a conceptually oriented introduction to multiple regression (MR) analysis and structural equation modeling (SEM), along with analyses that flow naturally from those methods. By focusing on the concepts and purposes of MR and related methods, rather than the derivation and calculation of formulae, this book introduces material to students more clearly, and in a less threatening way. In addition to illuminating content necessary for coursework, the accessibility of this approach means students are more likely to be able to conduct research using MR or SEM--and more likely to use the methods wisely. Covers both MR and SEM, while explaining their relevance to one another Also includes path analysis, confirmatory factor analysis, and latent growth modeling Figures and tables throughout provide examples and illustrate key concepts and techniques For additional resources, please visit: http://tzkeith.com/.

  3. Non-linear auto-regressive models for cross-frequency coupling in neural time series

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tallot, Lucille; Grabot, Laetitia; Doyère, Valérie; Grenier, Yves; Gramfort, Alexandre

    2017-01-01

    We address the issue of reliably detecting and quantifying cross-frequency coupling (CFC) in neural time series. Based on non-linear auto-regressive models, the proposed method provides a generative and parametric model of the time-varying spectral content of the signals. As this method models the entire spectrum simultaneously, it avoids the pitfalls related to incorrect filtering or the use of the Hilbert transform on wide-band signals. As the model is probabilistic, it also provides a score of the model “goodness of fit” via the likelihood, enabling easy and legitimate model selection and parameter comparison; this data-driven feature is unique to our model-based approach. Using three datasets obtained with invasive neurophysiological recordings in humans and rodents, we demonstrate that these models are able to replicate previous results obtained with other metrics, but also reveal new insights such as the influence of the amplitude of the slow oscillation. Using simulations, we demonstrate that our parametric method can reveal neural couplings with shorter signals than non-parametric methods. We also show how the likelihood can be used to find optimal filtering parameters, suggesting new properties on the spectrum of the driving signal, but also to estimate the optimal delay between the coupled signals, enabling a directionality estimation in the coupling. PMID:29227989

  4. Tutorial on Using Regression Models with Count Outcomes Using R

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Alexander Beaujean

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available Education researchers often study count variables, such as times a student reached a goal, discipline referrals, and absences. Most researchers that study these variables use typical regression methods (i.e., ordinary least-squares either with or without transforming the count variables. In either case, using typical regression for count data can produce parameter estimates that are biased, thus diminishing any inferences made from such data. As count-variable regression models are seldom taught in training programs, we present a tutorial to help educational researchers use such methods in their own research. We demonstrate analyzing and interpreting count data using Poisson, negative binomial, zero-inflated Poisson, and zero-inflated negative binomial regression models. The count regression methods are introduced through an example using the number of times students skipped class. The data for this example are freely available and the R syntax used run the example analyses are included in the Appendix.

  5. Surface Estimation, Variable Selection, and the Nonparametric Oracle Property.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Storlie, Curtis B; Bondell, Howard D; Reich, Brian J; Zhang, Hao Helen

    2011-04-01

    Variable selection for multivariate nonparametric regression is an important, yet challenging, problem due, in part, to the infinite dimensionality of the function space. An ideal selection procedure should be automatic, stable, easy to use, and have desirable asymptotic properties. In particular, we define a selection procedure to be nonparametric oracle (np-oracle) if it consistently selects the correct subset of predictors and at the same time estimates the smooth surface at the optimal nonparametric rate, as the sample size goes to infinity. In this paper, we propose a model selection procedure for nonparametric models, and explore the conditions under which the new method enjoys the aforementioned properties. Developed in the framework of smoothing spline ANOVA, our estimator is obtained via solving a regularization problem with a novel adaptive penalty on the sum of functional component norms. Theoretical properties of the new estimator are established. Additionally, numerous simulated and real examples further demonstrate that the new approach substantially outperforms other existing methods in the finite sample setting.

  6. Regularized multivariate regression models with skew-t error distributions

    KAUST Repository

    Chen, Lianfu; Pourahmadi, Mohsen; Maadooliat, Mehdi

    2014-01-01

    We consider regularization of the parameters in multivariate linear regression models with the errors having a multivariate skew-t distribution. An iterative penalized likelihood procedure is proposed for constructing sparse estimators of both

  7. Correlation-regression model for physico-chemical quality of ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    abusaad

    areas, suggesting that groundwater quality in urban areas is closely related with land use ... the ground water, with correlation and regression model is also presented. ...... WHO (World Health Organization) (1985). Health hazards from nitrates.

  8. Non-parametric Bayesian models of response function in dynamic image sequences

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Tichý, Ondřej; Šmídl, Václav

    2016-01-01

    Roč. 151, č. 1 (2016), s. 90-100 ISSN 1077-3142 R&D Projects: GA ČR GA13-29225S Institutional support: RVO:67985556 Keywords : Response function * Blind source separation * Dynamic medical imaging * Probabilistic models * Bayesian methods Subject RIV: BB - Applied Statistics, Operational Research Impact factor: 2.498, year: 2016 http://library.utia.cas.cz/separaty/2016/AS/tichy-0456983.pdf

  9. Essays on nonparametric econometrics of stochastic volatility

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Zu, Y.

    2012-01-01

    Volatility is a concept that describes the variation of financial returns. Measuring and modelling volatility dynamics is an important aspect of financial econometrics. This thesis is concerned with nonparametric approaches to volatility measurement and volatility model validation.

  10. A framework with nonlinear system model and nonparametric noise for gas turbine degradation state estimation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hanachi, Houman; Liu, Jie; Banerjee, Avisekh; Chen, Ying

    2015-01-01

    Modern health management approaches for gas turbine engines (GTEs) aim to precisely estimate the health state of the GTE components to optimize maintenance decisions with respect to both economy and safety. In this research, we propose an advanced framework to identify the most likely degradation state of the turbine section in a GTE for prognostics and health management (PHM) applications. A novel nonlinear thermodynamic model is used to predict the performance parameters of the GTE given the measurements. The ratio between real efficiency of the GTE and simulated efficiency in the newly installed condition is defined as the health indicator and provided at each sequence. The symptom of nonrecoverable degradations in the turbine section, i.e. loss of turbine efficiency, is assumed to be the internal degradation state. A regularized auxiliary particle filter (RAPF) is developed to sequentially estimate the internal degradation state in nonuniform time sequences upon receiving sets of new measurements. The effectiveness of the technique is examined using the operating data over an entire time-between-overhaul cycle of a simple-cycle industrial GTE. The results clearly show the trend of degradation in the turbine section and the occasional fluctuations, which are well supported by the service history of the GTE. The research also suggests the efficacy of the proposed technique to monitor the health state of the turbine section of a GTE by implementing model-based PHM without the need for additional instrumentation. (paper)

  11. Nonparametric modeling and analysis of association between Huntington's disease onset and CAG repeats.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ma, Yanyuan; Wang, Yuanjia

    2014-04-15

    Huntington's disease (HD) is a neurodegenerative disorder with a dominant genetic mode of inheritance caused by an expansion of CAG repeats on chromosome 4. Typically, a longer sequence of CAG repeat length is associated with increased risk of experiencing earlier onset of HD. Previous studies of the association between HD onset age and CAG length have favored a logistic model, where the CAG repeat length enters the mean and variance components of the logistic model in a complex exponential-linear form. To relax the parametric assumption of the exponential-linear association to the true HD onset distribution, we propose to leave both mean and variance functions of the CAG repeat length unspecified and perform semiparametric estimation in this context through a local kernel and backfitting procedure. Motivated by including family history of HD information available in the family members of participants in the Cooperative Huntington's Observational Research Trial (COHORT), we develop the methodology in the context of mixture data, where some subjects have a positive probability of being risk free. We also allow censoring on the age at onset of disease and accommodate covariates other than the CAG length. We study the theoretical properties of the proposed estimator and derive its asymptotic distribution. Finally, we apply the proposed methods to the COHORT data to estimate the HD onset distribution using a group of study participants and the disease family history information available on their family members. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  12. Wavelet regression model in forecasting crude oil price

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hamid, Mohd Helmie; Shabri, Ani

    2017-05-01

    This study presents the performance of wavelet multiple linear regression (WMLR) technique in daily crude oil forecasting. WMLR model was developed by integrating the discrete wavelet transform (DWT) and multiple linear regression (MLR) model. The original time series was decomposed to sub-time series with different scales by wavelet theory. Correlation analysis was conducted to assist in the selection of optimal decomposed components as inputs for the WMLR model. The daily WTI crude oil price series has been used in this study to test the prediction capability of the proposed model. The forecasting performance of WMLR model were also compared with regular multiple linear regression (MLR), Autoregressive Moving Average (ARIMA) and Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (GARCH) using root mean square errors (RMSE) and mean absolute errors (MAE). Based on the experimental results, it appears that the WMLR model performs better than the other forecasting technique tested in this study.

  13. Real estate value prediction using multivariate regression models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Manjula, R.; Jain, Shubham; Srivastava, Sharad; Rajiv Kher, Pranav

    2017-11-01

    The real estate market is one of the most competitive in terms of pricing and the same tends to vary significantly based on a lot of factors, hence it becomes one of the prime fields to apply the concepts of machine learning to optimize and predict the prices with high accuracy. Therefore in this paper, we present various important features to use while predicting housing prices with good accuracy. We have described regression models, using various features to have lower Residual Sum of Squares error. While using features in a regression model some feature engineering is required for better prediction. Often a set of features (multiple regressions) or polynomial regression (applying a various set of powers in the features) is used for making better model fit. For these models are expected to be susceptible towards over fitting ridge regression is used to reduce it. This paper thus directs to the best application of regression models in addition to other techniques to optimize the result.

  14. Application of random regression models to the genetic evaluation ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The model included fixed regression on AM (range from 30 to 138 mo) and the effect of herd-measurement date concatenation. Random parts of the model were RRM coefficients for additive and permanent environmental effects, while residual effects were modelled to account for heterogeneity of variance by AY. Estimates ...

  15. The APT model as reduced-rank regression

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bekker, P.A.; Dobbelstein, P.; Wansbeek, T.J.

    Integrating the two steps of an arbitrage pricing theory (APT) model leads to a reduced-rank regression (RRR) model. So the results on RRR can be used to estimate APT models, making estimation very simple. We give a succinct derivation of estimation of RRR, derive the asymptotic variance of RRR

  16. Hybrid elementary flux analysis/nonparametric modeling: application for bioprocess control

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alves Paula M

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The progress in the "-omic" sciences has allowed a deeper knowledge on many biological systems with industrial interest. This knowledge is still rarely used for advanced bioprocess monitoring and control at the bioreactor level. In this work, a bioprocess control method is presented, which is designed on the basis of the metabolic network of the organism under consideration. The bioprocess dynamics are formulated using hybrid rigorous/data driven systems and its inherent structure is defined by the metabolism elementary modes. Results The metabolic network of the system under study is decomposed into elementary modes (EMs, which are the simplest paths able to operate coherently in steady-state. A reduced reaction mechanism in the form of simplified reactions connecting substrates with end-products is obtained. A dynamical hybrid system integrating material balance equations, EMs reactions stoichiometry and kinetics was formulated. EMs kinetics were defined as the product of two terms: a mechanistic/empirical known term and an unknown term that must be identified from data, in a process optimisation perspective. This approach allows the quantification of fluxes carried by individual elementary modes which is of great help to identify dominant pathways as a function of environmental conditions. The methodology was employed to analyse experimental data of recombinant Baby Hamster Kidney (BHK-21A cultures producing a recombinant fusion glycoprotein. The identified EMs kinetics demonstrated typical glucose and glutamine metabolic responses during cell growth and IgG1-IL2 synthesis. Finally, an online optimisation study was conducted in which the optimal feeding strategies of glucose and glutamine were calculated after re-estimation of model parameters at each sampling time. An improvement in the final product concentration was obtained as a result of this online optimisation. Conclusion The main contribution of this work is a

  17. Alternative regression models to assess increase in childhood BMI

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mansmann Ulrich

    2008-09-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Body mass index (BMI data usually have skewed distributions, for which common statistical modeling approaches such as simple linear or logistic regression have limitations. Methods Different regression approaches to predict childhood BMI by goodness-of-fit measures and means of interpretation were compared including generalized linear models (GLMs, quantile regression and Generalized Additive Models for Location, Scale and Shape (GAMLSS. We analyzed data of 4967 children participating in the school entry health examination in Bavaria, Germany, from 2001 to 2002. TV watching, meal frequency, breastfeeding, smoking in pregnancy, maternal obesity, parental social class and weight gain in the first 2 years of life were considered as risk factors for obesity. Results GAMLSS showed a much better fit regarding the estimation of risk factors effects on transformed and untransformed BMI data than common GLMs with respect to the generalized Akaike information criterion. In comparison with GAMLSS, quantile regression allowed for additional interpretation of prespecified distribution quantiles, such as quantiles referring to overweight or obesity. The variables TV watching, maternal BMI and weight gain in the first 2 years were directly, and meal frequency was inversely significantly associated with body composition in any model type examined. In contrast, smoking in pregnancy was not directly, and breastfeeding and parental social class were not inversely significantly associated with body composition in GLM models, but in GAMLSS and partly in quantile regression models. Risk factor specific BMI percentile curves could be estimated from GAMLSS and quantile regression models. Conclusion GAMLSS and quantile regression seem to be more appropriate than common GLMs for risk factor modeling of BMI data.

  18. Alternative regression models to assess increase in childhood BMI.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beyerlein, Andreas; Fahrmeir, Ludwig; Mansmann, Ulrich; Toschke, André M

    2008-09-08

    Body mass index (BMI) data usually have skewed distributions, for which common statistical modeling approaches such as simple linear or logistic regression have limitations. Different regression approaches to predict childhood BMI by goodness-of-fit measures and means of interpretation were compared including generalized linear models (GLMs), quantile regression and Generalized Additive Models for Location, Scale and Shape (GAMLSS). We analyzed data of 4967 children participating in the school entry health examination in Bavaria, Germany, from 2001 to 2002. TV watching, meal frequency, breastfeeding, smoking in pregnancy, maternal obesity, parental social class and weight gain in the first 2 years of life were considered as risk factors for obesity. GAMLSS showed a much better fit regarding the estimation of risk factors effects on transformed and untransformed BMI data than common GLMs with respect to the generalized Akaike information criterion. In comparison with GAMLSS, quantile regression allowed for additional interpretation of prespecified distribution quantiles, such as quantiles referring to overweight or obesity. The variables TV watching, maternal BMI and weight gain in the first 2 years were directly, and meal frequency was inversely significantly associated with body composition in any model type examined. In contrast, smoking in pregnancy was not directly, and breastfeeding and parental social class were not inversely significantly associated with body composition in GLM models, but in GAMLSS and partly in quantile regression models. Risk factor specific BMI percentile curves could be estimated from GAMLSS and quantile regression models. GAMLSS and quantile regression seem to be more appropriate than common GLMs for risk factor modeling of BMI data.

  19. Two-Stage Method Based on Local Polynomial Fitting for a Linear Heteroscedastic Regression Model and Its Application in Economics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Liyun Su

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available We introduce the extension of local polynomial fitting to the linear heteroscedastic regression model. Firstly, the local polynomial fitting is applied to estimate heteroscedastic function, then the coefficients of regression model are obtained by using generalized least squares method. One noteworthy feature of our approach is that we avoid the testing for heteroscedasticity by improving the traditional two-stage method. Due to nonparametric technique of local polynomial estimation, we do not need to know the heteroscedastic function. Therefore, we can improve the estimation precision, when the heteroscedastic function is unknown. Furthermore, we focus on comparison of parameters and reach an optimal fitting. Besides, we verify the asymptotic normality of parameters based on numerical simulations. Finally, this approach is applied to a case of economics, and it indicates that our method is surely effective in finite-sample situations.

  20. On Cooper's Nonparametric Test.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schmeidler, James

    1978-01-01

    The basic assumption of Cooper's nonparametric test for trend (EJ 125 069) is questioned. It is contended that the proper assumption alters the distribution of the statistic and reduces its usefulness. (JKS)

  1. Robust mislabel logistic regression without modeling mislabel probabilities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hung, Hung; Jou, Zhi-Yu; Huang, Su-Yun

    2018-03-01

    Logistic regression is among the most widely used statistical methods for linear discriminant analysis. In many applications, we only observe possibly mislabeled responses. Fitting a conventional logistic regression can then lead to biased estimation. One common resolution is to fit a mislabel logistic regression model, which takes into consideration of mislabeled responses. Another common method is to adopt a robust M-estimation by down-weighting suspected instances. In this work, we propose a new robust mislabel logistic regression based on γ-divergence. Our proposal possesses two advantageous features: (1) It does not need to model the mislabel probabilities. (2) The minimum γ-divergence estimation leads to a weighted estimating equation without the need to include any bias correction term, that is, it is automatically bias-corrected. These features make the proposed γ-logistic regression more robust in model fitting and more intuitive for model interpretation through a simple weighting scheme. Our method is also easy to implement, and two types of algorithms are included. Simulation studies and the Pima data application are presented to demonstrate the performance of γ-logistic regression. © 2017, The International Biometric Society.

  2. PM10 modeling in the Oviedo urban area (Northern Spain) by using multivariate adaptive regression splines

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nieto, Paulino José García; Antón, Juan Carlos Álvarez; Vilán, José Antonio Vilán; García-Gonzalo, Esperanza

    2014-10-01

    The aim of this research work is to build a regression model of the particulate matter up to 10 micrometers in size (PM10) by using the multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS) technique in the Oviedo urban area (Northern Spain) at local scale. This research work explores the use of a nonparametric regression algorithm known as multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS) which has the ability to approximate the relationship between the inputs and outputs, and express the relationship mathematically. In this sense, hazardous air pollutants or toxic air contaminants refer to any substance that may cause or contribute to an increase in mortality or serious illness, or that may pose a present or potential hazard to human health. To accomplish the objective of this study, the experimental dataset of nitrogen oxides (NOx), carbon monoxide (CO), sulfur dioxide (SO2), ozone (O3) and dust (PM10) were collected over 3 years (2006-2008) and they are used to create a highly nonlinear model of the PM10 in the Oviedo urban nucleus (Northern Spain) based on the MARS technique. One main objective of this model is to obtain a preliminary estimate of the dependence between PM10 pollutant in the Oviedo urban area at local scale. A second aim is to determine the factors with the greatest bearing on air quality with a view to proposing health and lifestyle improvements. The United States National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS) establishes the limit values of the main pollutants in the atmosphere in order to ensure the health of healthy people. Firstly, this MARS regression model captures the main perception of statistical learning theory in order to obtain a good prediction of the dependence among the main pollutants in the Oviedo urban area. Secondly, the main advantages of MARS are its capacity to produce simple, easy-to-interpret models, its ability to estimate the contributions of the input variables, and its computational efficiency. Finally, on the basis of

  3. Linear regression models for quantitative assessment of left ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Changes in left ventricular structures and function have been reported in cardiomyopathies. No prediction models have been established in this environment. This study established regression models for prediction of left ventricular structures in normal subjects. A sample of normal subjects was drawn from a large urban ...

  4. Geographically Weighted Logistic Regression Applied to Credit Scoring Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pedro Henrique Melo Albuquerque

    Full Text Available Abstract This study used real data from a Brazilian financial institution on transactions involving Consumer Direct Credit (CDC, granted to clients residing in the Distrito Federal (DF, to construct credit scoring models via Logistic Regression and Geographically Weighted Logistic Regression (GWLR techniques. The aims were: to verify whether the factors that influence credit risk differ according to the borrower’s geographic location; to compare the set of models estimated via GWLR with the global model estimated via Logistic Regression, in terms of predictive power and financial losses for the institution; and to verify the viability of using the GWLR technique to develop credit scoring models. The metrics used to compare the models developed via the two techniques were the AICc informational criterion, the accuracy of the models, the percentage of false positives, the sum of the value of false positive debt, and the expected monetary value of portfolio default compared with the monetary value of defaults observed. The models estimated for each region in the DF were distinct in their variables and coefficients (parameters, with it being concluded that credit risk was influenced differently in each region in the study. The Logistic Regression and GWLR methodologies presented very close results, in terms of predictive power and financial losses for the institution, and the study demonstrated viability in using the GWLR technique to develop credit scoring models for the target population in the study.

  5. Development of a Modified Kernel Regression Model for a Robust Signal Reconstruction

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ahmed, Ibrahim; Heo, Gyunyoung [Kyung Hee University, Yongin (Korea, Republic of)

    2016-10-15

    The demand for robust and resilient performance has led to the use of online-monitoring techniques to monitor the process parameters and signal validation. On-line monitoring and signal validation techniques are the two important terminologies in process and equipment monitoring. These techniques are automated methods of monitoring instrument performance while the plant is operating. To implementing these techniques, several empirical models are used. One of these models is nonparametric regression model, otherwise known as kernel regression (KR). Unlike parametric models, KR is an algorithmic estimation procedure which assumes no significant parameters, and it needs no training process after its development when new observations are prepared; which is good for a system characteristic of changing due to ageing phenomenon. Although KR is used and performed excellently when applied to steady state or normal operating data, it has limitation in time-varying data that has several repetition of the same signal, especially if those signals are used to infer the other signals. The convectional KR has limitation in correctly estimating the dependent variable when time-varying data with repeated values are used to estimate the dependent variable especially in signal validation and monitoring. Therefore, we presented here in this work a modified KR that can resolve this issue which can also be feasible in time domain. Data are first transformed prior to the Euclidian distance evaluation considering their slopes/changes with respect to time. The performance of the developed model is evaluated and compared with that of conventional KR using both the lab experimental data and the real time data from CNS provided by KAERI. The result shows that the proposed developed model, having demonstrated high performance accuracy than that of conventional KR, is capable of resolving the identified limitation with convectional KR. We also discovered that there is still need to further

  6. Physics constrained nonlinear regression models for time series

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Majda, Andrew J; Harlim, John

    2013-01-01

    A central issue in contemporary science is the development of data driven statistical nonlinear dynamical models for time series of partial observations of nature or a complex physical model. It has been established recently that ad hoc quadratic multi-level regression (MLR) models can have finite-time blow up of statistical solutions and/or pathological behaviour of their invariant measure. Here a new class of physics constrained multi-level quadratic regression models are introduced, analysed and applied to build reduced stochastic models from data of nonlinear systems. These models have the advantages of incorporating memory effects in time as well as the nonlinear noise from energy conserving nonlinear interactions. The mathematical guidelines for the performance and behaviour of these physics constrained MLR models as well as filtering algorithms for their implementation are developed here. Data driven applications of these new multi-level nonlinear regression models are developed for test models involving a nonlinear oscillator with memory effects and the difficult test case of the truncated Burgers–Hopf model. These new physics constrained quadratic MLR models are proposed here as process models for Bayesian estimation through Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms of low frequency behaviour in complex physical data. (paper)

  7. Model-based Quantile Regression for Discrete Data

    KAUST Repository

    Padellini, Tullia

    2018-04-10

    Quantile regression is a class of methods voted to the modelling of conditional quantiles. In a Bayesian framework quantile regression has typically been carried out exploiting the Asymmetric Laplace Distribution as a working likelihood. Despite the fact that this leads to a proper posterior for the regression coefficients, the resulting posterior variance is however affected by an unidentifiable parameter, hence any inferential procedure beside point estimation is unreliable. We propose a model-based approach for quantile regression that considers quantiles of the generating distribution directly, and thus allows for a proper uncertainty quantification. We then create a link between quantile regression and generalised linear models by mapping the quantiles to the parameter of the response variable, and we exploit it to fit the model with R-INLA. We extend it also in the case of discrete responses, where there is no 1-to-1 relationship between quantiles and distribution\\'s parameter, by introducing continuous generalisations of the most common discrete variables (Poisson, Binomial and Negative Binomial) to be exploited in the fitting.

  8. Maximum Entropy Discrimination Poisson Regression for Software Reliability Modeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chatzis, Sotirios P; Andreou, Andreas S

    2015-11-01

    Reliably predicting software defects is one of the most significant tasks in software engineering. Two of the major components of modern software reliability modeling approaches are: 1) extraction of salient features for software system representation, based on appropriately designed software metrics and 2) development of intricate regression models for count data, to allow effective software reliability data modeling and prediction. Surprisingly, research in the latter frontier of count data regression modeling has been rather limited. More specifically, a lack of simple and efficient algorithms for posterior computation has made the Bayesian approaches appear unattractive, and thus underdeveloped in the context of software reliability modeling. In this paper, we try to address these issues by introducing a novel Bayesian regression model for count data, based on the concept of max-margin data modeling, effected in the context of a fully Bayesian model treatment with simple and efficient posterior distribution updates. Our novel approach yields a more discriminative learning technique, making more effective use of our training data during model inference. In addition, it allows of better handling uncertainty in the modeled data, which can be a significant problem when the training data are limited. We derive elegant inference algorithms for our model under the mean-field paradigm and exhibit its effectiveness using the publicly available benchmark data sets.

  9. Forecasting daily meteorological time series using ARIMA and regression models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Murat, Małgorzata; Malinowska, Iwona; Gos, Magdalena; Krzyszczak, Jaromir

    2018-04-01

    The daily air temperature and precipitation time series recorded between January 1, 1980 and December 31, 2010 in four European sites (Jokioinen, Dikopshof, Lleida and Lublin) from different climatic zones were modeled and forecasted. In our forecasting we used the methods of the Box-Jenkins and Holt- Winters seasonal auto regressive integrated moving-average, the autoregressive integrated moving-average with external regressors in the form of Fourier terms and the time series regression, including trend and seasonality components methodology with R software. It was demonstrated that obtained models are able to capture the dynamics of the time series data and to produce sensible forecasts.

  10. Multiple Response Regression for Gaussian Mixture Models with Known Labels.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Wonyul; Du, Ying; Sun, Wei; Hayes, D Neil; Liu, Yufeng

    2012-12-01

    Multiple response regression is a useful regression technique to model multiple response variables using the same set of predictor variables. Most existing methods for multiple response regression are designed for modeling homogeneous data. In many applications, however, one may have heterogeneous data where the samples are divided into multiple groups. Our motivating example is a cancer dataset where the samples belong to multiple cancer subtypes. In this paper, we consider modeling the data coming from a mixture of several Gaussian distributions with known group labels. A naive approach is to split the data into several groups according to the labels and model each group separately. Although it is simple, this approach ignores potential common structures across different groups. We propose new penalized methods to model all groups jointly in which the common and unique structures can be identified. The proposed methods estimate the regression coefficient matrix, as well as the conditional inverse covariance matrix of response variables. Asymptotic properties of the proposed methods are explored. Through numerical examples, we demonstrate that both estimation and prediction can be improved by modeling all groups jointly using the proposed methods. An application to a glioblastoma cancer dataset reveals some interesting common and unique gene relationships across different cancer subtypes.

  11. Thermal Efficiency Degradation Diagnosis Method Using Regression Model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jee, Chang Hyun; Heo, Gyun Young; Jang, Seok Won; Lee, In Cheol

    2011-01-01

    This paper proposes an idea for thermal efficiency degradation diagnosis in turbine cycles, which is based on turbine cycle simulation under abnormal conditions and a linear regression model. The correlation between the inputs for representing degradation conditions (normally unmeasured but intrinsic states) and the simulation outputs (normally measured but superficial states) was analyzed with the linear regression model. The regression models can inversely response an associated intrinsic state for a superficial state observed from a power plant. The diagnosis method proposed herein is classified into three processes, 1) simulations for degradation conditions to get measured states (referred as what-if method), 2) development of the linear model correlating intrinsic and superficial states, and 3) determination of an intrinsic state using the superficial states of current plant and the linear regression model (referred as inverse what-if method). The what-if method is to generate the outputs for the inputs including various root causes and/or boundary conditions whereas the inverse what-if method is the process of calculating the inverse matrix with the given superficial states, that is, component degradation modes. The method suggested in this paper was validated using the turbine cycle model for an operating power plant

  12. Regression modeling strategies with applications to linear models, logistic and ordinal regression, and survival analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Harrell , Jr , Frank E

    2015-01-01

    This highly anticipated second edition features new chapters and sections, 225 new references, and comprehensive R software. In keeping with the previous edition, this book is about the art and science of data analysis and predictive modeling, which entails choosing and using multiple tools. Instead of presenting isolated techniques, this text emphasizes problem solving strategies that address the many issues arising when developing multivariable models using real data and not standard textbook examples. It includes imputation methods for dealing with missing data effectively, methods for fitting nonlinear relationships and for making the estimation of transformations a formal part of the modeling process, methods for dealing with "too many variables to analyze and not enough observations," and powerful model validation techniques based on the bootstrap.  The reader will gain a keen understanding of predictive accuracy, and the harm of categorizing continuous predictors or outcomes.  This text realistically...

  13. Flexible competing risks regression modeling and goodness-of-fit

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Scheike, Thomas; Zhang, Mei-Jie

    2008-01-01

    In this paper we consider different approaches for estimation and assessment of covariate effects for the cumulative incidence curve in the competing risks model. The classic approach is to model all cause-specific hazards and then estimate the cumulative incidence curve based on these cause...... models that is easy to fit and contains the Fine-Gray model as a special case. One advantage of this approach is that our regression modeling allows for non-proportional hazards. This leads to a new simple goodness-of-fit procedure for the proportional subdistribution hazards assumption that is very easy...... of the flexible regression models to analyze competing risks data when non-proportionality is present in the data....

  14. The art of regression modeling in road safety

    CERN Document Server

    Hauer, Ezra

    2015-01-01

    This unique book explains how to fashion useful regression models from commonly available data to erect models essential for evidence-based road safety management and research. Composed from techniques and best practices presented over many years of lectures and workshops, The Art of Regression Modeling in Road Safety illustrates that fruitful modeling cannot be done without substantive knowledge about the modeled phenomenon. Class-tested in courses and workshops across North America, the book is ideal for professionals, researchers, university professors, and graduate students with an interest in, or responsibilities related to, road safety. This book also: · Presents for the first time a powerful analytical tool for road safety researchers and practitioners · Includes problems and solutions in each chapter as well as data and spreadsheets for running models and PowerPoint presentation slides · Features pedagogy well-suited for graduate courses and workshops including problems, solutions, and PowerPoint p...

  15. Model building strategy for logistic regression: purposeful selection.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Zhongheng

    2016-03-01

    Logistic regression is one of the most commonly used models to account for confounders in medical literature. The article introduces how to perform purposeful selection model building strategy with R. I stress on the use of likelihood ratio test to see whether deleting a variable will have significant impact on model fit. A deleted variable should also be checked for whether it is an important adjustment of remaining covariates. Interaction should be checked to disentangle complex relationship between covariates and their synergistic effect on response variable. Model should be checked for the goodness-of-fit (GOF). In other words, how the fitted model reflects the real data. Hosmer-Lemeshow GOF test is the most widely used for logistic regression model.

  16. Regression analysis of a chemical reaction fouling model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vasak, F.; Epstein, N.

    1996-01-01

    A previously reported mathematical model for the initial chemical reaction fouling of a heated tube is critically examined in the light of the experimental data for which it was developed. A regression analysis of the model with respect to that data shows that the reference point upon which the two adjustable parameters of the model were originally based was well chosen, albeit fortuitously. (author). 3 refs., 2 tabs., 2 figs

  17. Spatial stochastic regression modelling of urban land use

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Arshad, S H M; Jaafar, J; Abiden, M Z Z; Latif, Z A; Rasam, A R A

    2014-01-01

    Urbanization is very closely linked to industrialization, commercialization or overall economic growth and development. This results in innumerable benefits of the quantity and quality of the urban environment and lifestyle but on the other hand contributes to unbounded development, urban sprawl, overcrowding and decreasing standard of living. Regulation and observation of urban development activities is crucial. The understanding of urban systems that promotes urban growth are also essential for the purpose of policy making, formulating development strategies as well as development plan preparation. This study aims to compare two different stochastic regression modeling techniques for spatial structure models of urban growth in the same specific study area. Both techniques will utilize the same datasets and their results will be analyzed. The work starts by producing an urban growth model by using stochastic regression modeling techniques namely the Ordinary Least Square (OLS) and Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR). The two techniques are compared to and it is found that, GWR seems to be a more significant stochastic regression model compared to OLS, it gives a smaller AICc (Akaike's Information Corrected Criterion) value and its output is more spatially explainable

  18. Direction of Effects in Multiple Linear Regression Models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wiedermann, Wolfgang; von Eye, Alexander

    2015-01-01

    Previous studies analyzed asymmetric properties of the Pearson correlation coefficient using higher than second order moments. These asymmetric properties can be used to determine the direction of dependence in a linear regression setting (i.e., establish which of two variables is more likely to be on the outcome side) within the framework of cross-sectional observational data. Extant approaches are restricted to the bivariate regression case. The present contribution extends the direction of dependence methodology to a multiple linear regression setting by analyzing distributional properties of residuals of competing multiple regression models. It is shown that, under certain conditions, the third central moments of estimated regression residuals can be used to decide upon direction of effects. In addition, three different approaches for statistical inference are discussed: a combined D'Agostino normality test, a skewness difference test, and a bootstrap difference test. Type I error and power of the procedures are assessed using Monte Carlo simulations, and an empirical example is provided for illustrative purposes. In the discussion, issues concerning the quality of psychological data, possible extensions of the proposed methods to the fourth central moment of regression residuals, and potential applications are addressed.

  19. Logistic regression for risk factor modelling in stuttering research.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reed, Phil; Wu, Yaqionq

    2013-06-01

    To outline the uses of logistic regression and other statistical methods for risk factor analysis in the context of research on stuttering. The principles underlying the application of a logistic regression are illustrated, and the types of questions to which such a technique has been applied in the stuttering field are outlined. The assumptions and limitations of the technique are discussed with respect to existing stuttering research, and with respect to formulating appropriate research strategies to accommodate these considerations. Finally, some alternatives to the approach are briefly discussed. The way the statistical procedures are employed are demonstrated with some hypothetical data. Research into several practical issues concerning stuttering could benefit if risk factor modelling were used. Important examples are early diagnosis, prognosis (whether a child will recover or persist) and assessment of treatment outcome. After reading this article you will: (a) Summarize the situations in which logistic regression can be applied to a range of issues about stuttering; (b) Follow the steps in performing a logistic regression analysis; (c) Describe the assumptions of the logistic regression technique and the precautions that need to be checked when it is employed; (d) Be able to summarize its advantages over other techniques like estimation of group differences and simple regression. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  20. Modeling and prediction of flotation performance using support vector regression

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Despotović Vladimir

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Continuous efforts have been made in recent year to improve the process of paper recycling, as it is of critical importance for saving the wood, water and energy resources. Flotation deinking is considered to be one of the key methods for separation of ink particles from the cellulose fibres. Attempts to model the flotation deinking process have often resulted in complex models that are difficult to implement and use. In this paper a model for prediction of flotation performance based on Support Vector Regression (SVR, is presented. Representative data samples were created in laboratory, under a variety of practical control variables for the flotation deinking process, including different reagents, pH values and flotation residence time. Predictive model was created that was trained on these data samples, and the flotation performance was assessed showing that Support Vector Regression is a promising method even when dataset used for training the model is limited.

  1. Bayesian approach to errors-in-variables in regression models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rozliman, Nur Aainaa; Ibrahim, Adriana Irawati Nur; Yunus, Rossita Mohammad

    2017-05-01

    In many applications and experiments, data sets are often contaminated with error or mismeasured covariates. When at least one of the covariates in a model is measured with error, Errors-in-Variables (EIV) model can be used. Measurement error, when not corrected, would cause misleading statistical inferences and analysis. Therefore, our goal is to examine the relationship of the outcome variable and the unobserved exposure variable given the observed mismeasured surrogate by applying the Bayesian formulation to the EIV model. We shall extend the flexible parametric method proposed by Hossain and Gustafson (2009) to another nonlinear regression model which is the Poisson regression model. We shall then illustrate the application of this approach via a simulation study using Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling methods.

  2. A Bayesian nonparametric approach to causal inference on quantiles.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Dandan; Daniels, Michael J; Winterstein, Almut G

    2018-02-25

    We propose a Bayesian nonparametric approach (BNP) for causal inference on quantiles in the presence of many confounders. In particular, we define relevant causal quantities and specify BNP models to avoid bias from restrictive parametric assumptions. We first use Bayesian additive regression trees (BART) to model the propensity score and then construct the distribution of potential outcomes given the propensity score using a Dirichlet process mixture (DPM) of normals model. We thoroughly evaluate the operating characteristics of our approach and compare it to Bayesian and frequentist competitors. We use our approach to answer an important clinical question involving acute kidney injury using electronic health records. © 2018, The International Biometric Society.

  3. Time series regression model for infectious disease and weather.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Imai, Chisato; Armstrong, Ben; Chalabi, Zaid; Mangtani, Punam; Hashizume, Masahiro

    2015-10-01

    Time series regression has been developed and long used to evaluate the short-term associations of air pollution and weather with mortality or morbidity of non-infectious diseases. The application of the regression approaches from this tradition to infectious diseases, however, is less well explored and raises some new issues. We discuss and present potential solutions for five issues often arising in such analyses: changes in immune population, strong autocorrelations, a wide range of plausible lag structures and association patterns, seasonality adjustments, and large overdispersion. The potential approaches are illustrated with datasets of cholera cases and rainfall from Bangladesh and influenza and temperature in Tokyo. Though this article focuses on the application of the traditional time series regression to infectious diseases and weather factors, we also briefly introduce alternative approaches, including mathematical modeling, wavelet analysis, and autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models. Modifications proposed to standard time series regression practice include using sums of past cases as proxies for the immune population, and using the logarithm of lagged disease counts to control autocorrelation due to true contagion, both of which are motivated from "susceptible-infectious-recovered" (SIR) models. The complexity of lag structures and association patterns can often be informed by biological mechanisms and explored by using distributed lag non-linear models. For overdispersed models, alternative distribution models such as quasi-Poisson and negative binomial should be considered. Time series regression can be used to investigate dependence of infectious diseases on weather, but may need modifying to allow for features specific to this context. Copyright © 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  4. Variable Selection for Regression Models of Percentile Flows

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fouad, G.

    2017-12-01

    Percentile flows describe the flow magnitude equaled or exceeded for a given percent of time, and are widely used in water resource management. However, these statistics are normally unavailable since most basins are ungauged. Percentile flows of ungauged basins are often predicted using regression models based on readily observable basin characteristics, such as mean elevation. The number of these independent variables is too large to evaluate all possible models. A subset of models is typically evaluated using automatic procedures, like stepwise regression. This ignores a large variety of methods from the field of feature (variable) selection and physical understanding of percentile flows. A study of 918 basins in the United States was conducted to compare an automatic regression procedure to the following variable selection methods: (1) principal component analysis, (2) correlation analysis, (3) random forests, (4) genetic programming, (5) Bayesian networks, and (6) physical understanding. The automatic regression procedure only performed better than principal component analysis. Poor performance of the regression procedure was due to a commonly used filter for multicollinearity, which rejected the strongest models because they had cross-correlated independent variables. Multicollinearity did not decrease model performance in validation because of a representative set of calibration basins. Variable selection methods based strictly on predictive power (numbers 2-5 from above) performed similarly, likely indicating a limit to the predictive power of the variables. Similar performance was also reached using variables selected based on physical understanding, a finding that substantiates recent calls to emphasize physical understanding in modeling for predictions in ungauged basins. The strongest variables highlighted the importance of geology and land cover, whereas widely used topographic variables were the weakest predictors. Variables suffered from a high

  5. Linearity and Misspecification Tests for Vector Smooth Transition Regression Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Teräsvirta, Timo; Yang, Yukai

    The purpose of the paper is to derive Lagrange multiplier and Lagrange multiplier type specification and misspecification tests for vector smooth transition regression models. We report results from simulation studies in which the size and power properties of the proposed asymptotic tests in small...

  6. Application of multilinear regression analysis in modeling of soil ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The application of Multi-Linear Regression Analysis (MLRA) model for predicting soil properties in Calabar South offers a technical guide and solution in foundation designs problems in the area. Forty-five soil samples were collected from fifteen different boreholes at a different depth and 270 tests were carried out for CBR, ...

  7. A binary logistic regression model with complex sampling design of ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    2017-09-03

    Sep 3, 2017 ... Bi-variable and multi-variable binary logistic regression model with complex sampling design was fitted. .... Data was entered into STATA-12 and analyzed using. SPSS-21. .... lack of access/too far or costs too much. 35. 1.2.

  8. Transpiration of glasshouse rose crops: evaluation of regression models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Baas, R.; Rijssel, van E.

    2006-01-01

    Regression models of transpiration (T) based on global radiation inside the greenhouse (G), with or without energy input from heating pipes (Eh) and/or vapor pressure deficit (VPD) were parameterized. Therefore, data on T, G, temperatures from air, canopy and heating pipes, and VPD from both a

  9. Nonparametric conditional predictive regions for time series

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    de Gooijer, J.G.; Zerom Godefay, D.

    2000-01-01

    Several nonparametric predictors based on the Nadaraya-Watson kernel regression estimator have been proposed in the literature. They include the conditional mean, the conditional median, and the conditional mode. In this paper, we consider three types of predictive regions for these predictors — the

  10. Theory of nonparametric tests

    CERN Document Server

    Dickhaus, Thorsten

    2018-01-01

    This textbook provides a self-contained presentation of the main concepts and methods of nonparametric statistical testing, with a particular focus on the theoretical foundations of goodness-of-fit tests, rank tests, resampling tests, and projection tests. The substitution principle is employed as a unified approach to the nonparametric test problems discussed. In addition to mathematical theory, it also includes numerous examples and computer implementations. The book is intended for advanced undergraduate, graduate, and postdoc students as well as young researchers. Readers should be familiar with the basic concepts of mathematical statistics typically covered in introductory statistics courses.

  11. CICAAR - Convolutive ICA with an Auto-Regressive Inverse Model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dyrholm, Mads; Hansen, Lars Kai

    2004-01-01

    We invoke an auto-regressive IIR inverse model for convolutive ICA and derive expressions for the likelihood and its gradient. We argue that optimization will give a stable inverse. When there are more sensors than sources the mixing model parameters are estimated in a second step by least square...... estimation. We demonstrate the method on synthetic data and finally separate speech and music in a real room recording....

  12. Regression Models and Fuzzy Logic Prediction of TBM Penetration Rate

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Minh Vu Trieu

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents statistical analyses of rock engineering properties and the measured penetration rate of tunnel boring machine (TBM based on the data of an actual project. The aim of this study is to analyze the influence of rock engineering properties including uniaxial compressive strength (UCS, Brazilian tensile strength (BTS, rock brittleness index (BI, the distance between planes of weakness (DPW, and the alpha angle (Alpha between the tunnel axis and the planes of weakness on the TBM rate of penetration (ROP. Four (4 statistical regression models (two linear and two nonlinear are built to predict the ROP of TBM. Finally a fuzzy logic model is developed as an alternative method and compared to the four statistical regression models. Results show that the fuzzy logic model provides better estimations and can be applied to predict the TBM performance. The R-squared value (R2 of the fuzzy logic model scores the highest value of 0.714 over the second runner-up of 0.667 from the multiple variables nonlinear regression model.

  13. Regression Models and Fuzzy Logic Prediction of TBM Penetration Rate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Minh, Vu Trieu; Katushin, Dmitri; Antonov, Maksim; Veinthal, Renno

    2017-03-01

    This paper presents statistical analyses of rock engineering properties and the measured penetration rate of tunnel boring machine (TBM) based on the data of an actual project. The aim of this study is to analyze the influence of rock engineering properties including uniaxial compressive strength (UCS), Brazilian tensile strength (BTS), rock brittleness index (BI), the distance between planes of weakness (DPW), and the alpha angle (Alpha) between the tunnel axis and the planes of weakness on the TBM rate of penetration (ROP). Four (4) statistical regression models (two linear and two nonlinear) are built to predict the ROP of TBM. Finally a fuzzy logic model is developed as an alternative method and compared to the four statistical regression models. Results show that the fuzzy logic model provides better estimations and can be applied to predict the TBM performance. The R-squared value (R2) of the fuzzy logic model scores the highest value of 0.714 over the second runner-up of 0.667 from the multiple variables nonlinear regression model.

  14. Detection of Outliers in Regression Model for Medical Data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stephen Raj S

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available In regression analysis, an outlier is an observation for which the residual is large in magnitude compared to other observations in the data set. The detection of outliers and influential points is an important step of the regression analysis. Outlier detection methods have been used to detect and remove anomalous values from data. In this paper, we detect the presence of outliers in simple linear regression models for medical data set. Chatterjee and Hadi mentioned that the ordinary residuals are not appropriate for diagnostic purposes; a transformed version of them is preferable. First, we investigate the presence of outliers based on existing procedures of residuals and standardized residuals. Next, we have used the new approach of standardized scores for detecting outliers without the use of predicted values. The performance of the new approach was verified with the real-life data.

  15. Hierarchical Neural Regression Models for Customer Churn Prediction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Golshan Mohammadi

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available As customers are the main assets of each industry, customer churn prediction is becoming a major task for companies to remain in competition with competitors. In the literature, the better applicability and efficiency of hierarchical data mining techniques has been reported. This paper considers three hierarchical models by combining four different data mining techniques for churn prediction, which are backpropagation artificial neural networks (ANN, self-organizing maps (SOM, alpha-cut fuzzy c-means (α-FCM, and Cox proportional hazards regression model. The hierarchical models are ANN + ANN + Cox, SOM + ANN + Cox, and α-FCM + ANN + Cox. In particular, the first component of the models aims to cluster data in two churner and nonchurner groups and also filter out unrepresentative data or outliers. Then, the clustered data as the outputs are used to assign customers to churner and nonchurner groups by the second technique. Finally, the correctly classified data are used to create Cox proportional hazards model. To evaluate the performance of the hierarchical models, an Iranian mobile dataset is considered. The experimental results show that the hierarchical models outperform the single Cox regression baseline model in terms of prediction accuracy, Types I and II errors, RMSE, and MAD metrics. In addition, the α-FCM + ANN + Cox model significantly performs better than the two other hierarchical models.

  16. Electricity consumption forecasting in Italy using linear regression models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bianco, Vincenzo; Manca, Oronzio; Nardini, Sergio [DIAM, Seconda Universita degli Studi di Napoli, Via Roma 29, 81031 Aversa (CE) (Italy)

    2009-09-15

    The influence of economic and demographic variables on the annual electricity consumption in Italy has been investigated with the intention to develop a long-term consumption forecasting model. The time period considered for the historical data is from 1970 to 2007. Different regression models were developed, using historical electricity consumption, gross domestic product (GDP), gross domestic product per capita (GDP per capita) and population. A first part of the paper considers the estimation of GDP, price and GDP per capita elasticities of domestic and non-domestic electricity consumption. The domestic and non-domestic short run price elasticities are found to be both approximately equal to -0.06, while long run elasticities are equal to -0.24 and -0.09, respectively. On the contrary, the elasticities of GDP and GDP per capita present higher values. In the second part of the paper, different regression models, based on co-integrated or stationary data, are presented. Different statistical tests are employed to check the validity of the proposed models. A comparison with national forecasts, based on complex econometric models, such as Markal-Time, was performed, showing that the developed regressions are congruent with the official projections, with deviations of {+-}1% for the best case and {+-}11% for the worst. These deviations are to be considered acceptable in relation to the time span taken into account. (author)

  17. Electricity consumption forecasting in Italy using linear regression models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bianco, Vincenzo; Manca, Oronzio; Nardini, Sergio

    2009-01-01

    The influence of economic and demographic variables on the annual electricity consumption in Italy has been investigated with the intention to develop a long-term consumption forecasting model. The time period considered for the historical data is from 1970 to 2007. Different regression models were developed, using historical electricity consumption, gross domestic product (GDP), gross domestic product per capita (GDP per capita) and population. A first part of the paper considers the estimation of GDP, price and GDP per capita elasticities of domestic and non-domestic electricity consumption. The domestic and non-domestic short run price elasticities are found to be both approximately equal to -0.06, while long run elasticities are equal to -0.24 and -0.09, respectively. On the contrary, the elasticities of GDP and GDP per capita present higher values. In the second part of the paper, different regression models, based on co-integrated or stationary data, are presented. Different statistical tests are employed to check the validity of the proposed models. A comparison with national forecasts, based on complex econometric models, such as Markal-Time, was performed, showing that the developed regressions are congruent with the official projections, with deviations of ±1% for the best case and ±11% for the worst. These deviations are to be considered acceptable in relation to the time span taken into account. (author)

  18. Regression Model to Predict Global Solar Irradiance in Malaysia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hairuniza Ahmed Kutty

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available A novel regression model is developed to estimate the monthly global solar irradiance in Malaysia. The model is developed based on different available meteorological parameters, including temperature, cloud cover, rain precipitate, relative humidity, wind speed, pressure, and gust speed, by implementing regression analysis. This paper reports on the details of the analysis of the effect of each prediction parameter to identify the parameters that are relevant to estimating global solar irradiance. In addition, the proposed model is compared in terms of the root mean square error (RMSE, mean bias error (MBE, and the coefficient of determination (R2 with other models available from literature studies. Seven models based on single parameters (PM1 to PM7 and five multiple-parameter models (PM7 to PM12 are proposed. The new models perform well, with RMSE ranging from 0.429% to 1.774%, R2 ranging from 0.942 to 0.992, and MBE ranging from −0.1571% to 0.6025%. In general, cloud cover significantly affects the estimation of global solar irradiance. However, cloud cover in Malaysia lacks sufficient influence when included into multiple-parameter models although it performs fairly well in single-parameter prediction models.

  19. Two-step variable selection in quantile regression models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    FAN Yali

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available We propose a two-step variable selection procedure for high dimensional quantile regressions, in which the dimension of the covariates, pn is much larger than the sample size n. In the first step, we perform ℓ1 penalty, and we demonstrate that the first step penalized estimator with the LASSO penalty can reduce the model from an ultra-high dimensional to a model whose size has the same order as that of the true model, and the selected model can cover the true model. The second step excludes the remained irrelevant covariates by applying the adaptive LASSO penalty to the reduced model obtained from the first step. Under some regularity conditions, we show that our procedure enjoys the model selection consistency. We conduct a simulation study and a real data analysis to evaluate the finite sample performance of the proposed approach.

  20. New robust statistical procedures for the polytomous logistic regression models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Castilla, Elena; Ghosh, Abhik; Martin, Nirian; Pardo, Leandro

    2018-05-17

    This article derives a new family of estimators, namely the minimum density power divergence estimators, as a robust generalization of the maximum likelihood estimator for the polytomous logistic regression model. Based on these estimators, a family of Wald-type test statistics for linear hypotheses is introduced. Robustness properties of both the proposed estimators and the test statistics are theoretically studied through the classical influence function analysis. Appropriate real life examples are presented to justify the requirement of suitable robust statistical procedures in place of the likelihood based inference for the polytomous logistic regression model. The validity of the theoretical results established in the article are further confirmed empirically through suitable simulation studies. Finally, an approach for the data-driven selection of the robustness tuning parameter is proposed with empirical justifications. © 2018, The International Biometric Society.

  1. THE REGRESSION MODEL OF IRAN LIBRARIES ORGANIZATIONAL CLIMATE

    OpenAIRE

    Jahani, Mohammad Ali; Yaminfirooz, Mousa; Siamian, Hasan

    2015-01-01

    Background: The purpose of this study was to drawing a regression model of organizational climate of central libraries of Iran?s universities. Methods: This study is an applied research. The statistical population of this study consisted of 96 employees of the central libraries of Iran?s public universities selected among the 117 universities affiliated to the Ministry of Health by Stratified Sampling method (510 people). Climate Qual localized questionnaire was used as research tools. For pr...

  2. Online Statistical Modeling (Regression Analysis) for Independent Responses

    Science.gov (United States)

    Made Tirta, I.; Anggraeni, Dian; Pandutama, Martinus

    2017-06-01

    Regression analysis (statistical analmodelling) are among statistical methods which are frequently needed in analyzing quantitative data, especially to model relationship between response and explanatory variables. Nowadays, statistical models have been developed into various directions to model various type and complex relationship of data. Rich varieties of advanced and recent statistical modelling are mostly available on open source software (one of them is R). However, these advanced statistical modelling, are not very friendly to novice R users, since they are based on programming script or command line interface. Our research aims to developed web interface (based on R and shiny), so that most recent and advanced statistical modelling are readily available, accessible and applicable on web. We have previously made interface in the form of e-tutorial for several modern and advanced statistical modelling on R especially for independent responses (including linear models/LM, generalized linier models/GLM, generalized additive model/GAM and generalized additive model for location scale and shape/GAMLSS). In this research we unified them in the form of data analysis, including model using Computer Intensive Statistics (Bootstrap and Markov Chain Monte Carlo/ MCMC). All are readily accessible on our online Virtual Statistics Laboratory. The web (interface) make the statistical modeling becomes easier to apply and easier to compare them in order to find the most appropriate model for the data.

  3. Nonparametric statistics with applications to science and engineering

    CERN Document Server

    Kvam, Paul H

    2007-01-01

    A thorough and definitive book that fully addresses traditional and modern-day topics of nonparametric statistics This book presents a practical approach to nonparametric statistical analysis and provides comprehensive coverage of both established and newly developed methods. With the use of MATLAB, the authors present information on theorems and rank tests in an applied fashion, with an emphasis on modern methods in regression and curve fitting, bootstrap confidence intervals, splines, wavelets, empirical likelihood, and goodness-of-fit testing. Nonparametric Statistics with Applications to Science and Engineering begins with succinct coverage of basic results for order statistics, methods of categorical data analysis, nonparametric regression, and curve fitting methods. The authors then focus on nonparametric procedures that are becoming more relevant to engineering researchers and practitioners. The important fundamental materials needed to effectively learn and apply the discussed methods are also provide...

  4. Reconstruction of missing daily streamflow data using dynamic regression models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tencaliec, Patricia; Favre, Anne-Catherine; Prieur, Clémentine; Mathevet, Thibault

    2015-12-01

    River discharge is one of the most important quantities in hydrology. It provides fundamental records for water resources management and climate change monitoring. Even very short data-gaps in this information can cause extremely different analysis outputs. Therefore, reconstructing missing data of incomplete data sets is an important step regarding the performance of the environmental models, engineering, and research applications, thus it presents a great challenge. The objective of this paper is to introduce an effective technique for reconstructing missing daily discharge data when one has access to only daily streamflow data. The proposed procedure uses a combination of regression and autoregressive integrated moving average models (ARIMA) called dynamic regression model. This model uses the linear relationship between neighbor and correlated stations and then adjusts the residual term by fitting an ARIMA structure. Application of the model to eight daily streamflow data for the Durance river watershed showed that the model yields reliable estimates for the missing data in the time series. Simulation studies were also conducted to evaluate the performance of the procedure.

  5. Predicting and Modelling of Survival Data when Cox's Regression Model does not hold

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Scheike, Thomas H.; Zhang, Mei-Jie

    2002-01-01

    Aalen model; additive risk model; counting processes; competing risk; Cox regression; flexible modeling; goodness of fit; prediction of survival; survival analysis; time-varying effects......Aalen model; additive risk model; counting processes; competing risk; Cox regression; flexible modeling; goodness of fit; prediction of survival; survival analysis; time-varying effects...

  6. Extended cox regression model: The choice of timefunction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Isik, Hatice; Tutkun, Nihal Ata; Karasoy, Durdu

    2017-07-01

    Cox regression model (CRM), which takes into account the effect of censored observations, is one the most applicative and usedmodels in survival analysis to evaluate the effects of covariates. Proportional hazard (PH), requires a constant hazard ratio over time, is the assumptionofCRM. Using extended CRM provides the test of including a time dependent covariate to assess the PH assumption or an alternative model in case of nonproportional hazards. In this study, the different types of real data sets are used to choose the time function and the differences between time functions are analyzed and discussed.

  7. A test of inflated zeros for Poisson regression models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    He, Hua; Zhang, Hui; Ye, Peng; Tang, Wan

    2017-01-01

    Excessive zeros are common in practice and may cause overdispersion and invalidate inference when fitting Poisson regression models. There is a large body of literature on zero-inflated Poisson models. However, methods for testing whether there are excessive zeros are less well developed. The Vuong test comparing a Poisson and a zero-inflated Poisson model is commonly applied in practice. However, the type I error of the test often deviates seriously from the nominal level, rendering serious doubts on the validity of the test in such applications. In this paper, we develop a new approach for testing inflated zeros under the Poisson model. Unlike the Vuong test for inflated zeros, our method does not require a zero-inflated Poisson model to perform the test. Simulation studies show that when compared with the Vuong test our approach not only better at controlling type I error rate, but also yield more power.

  8. Stock price forecasting for companies listed on Tehran stock exchange using multivariate adaptive regression splines model and semi-parametric splines technique

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rounaghi, Mohammad Mahdi; Abbaszadeh, Mohammad Reza; Arashi, Mohammad

    2015-11-01

    One of the most important topics of interest to investors is stock price changes. Investors whose goals are long term are sensitive to stock price and its changes and react to them. In this regard, we used multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS) model and semi-parametric splines technique for predicting stock price in this study. The MARS model as a nonparametric method is an adaptive method for regression and it fits for problems with high dimensions and several variables. semi-parametric splines technique was used in this study. Smoothing splines is a nonparametric regression method. In this study, we used 40 variables (30 accounting variables and 10 economic variables) for predicting stock price using the MARS model and using semi-parametric splines technique. After investigating the models, we select 4 accounting variables (book value per share, predicted earnings per share, P/E ratio and risk) as influencing variables on predicting stock price using the MARS model. After fitting the semi-parametric splines technique, only 4 accounting variables (dividends, net EPS, EPS Forecast and P/E Ratio) were selected as variables effective in forecasting stock prices.

  9. Adaptive metric kernel regression

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Goutte, Cyril; Larsen, Jan

    2000-01-01

    Kernel smoothing is a widely used non-parametric pattern recognition technique. By nature, it suffers from the curse of dimensionality and is usually difficult to apply to high input dimensions. In this contribution, we propose an algorithm that adapts the input metric used in multivariate...... regression by minimising a cross-validation estimate of the generalisation error. This allows to automatically adjust the importance of different dimensions. The improvement in terms of modelling performance is illustrated on a variable selection task where the adaptive metric kernel clearly outperforms...

  10. Adaptive Metric Kernel Regression

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Goutte, Cyril; Larsen, Jan

    1998-01-01

    Kernel smoothing is a widely used nonparametric pattern recognition technique. By nature, it suffers from the curse of dimensionality and is usually difficult to apply to high input dimensions. In this paper, we propose an algorithm that adapts the input metric used in multivariate regression...... by minimising a cross-validation estimate of the generalisation error. This allows one to automatically adjust the importance of different dimensions. The improvement in terms of modelling performance is illustrated on a variable selection task where the adaptive metric kernel clearly outperforms the standard...

  11. Multivariate Frequency-Severity Regression Models in Insurance

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Edward W. Frees

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available In insurance and related industries including healthcare, it is common to have several outcome measures that the analyst wishes to understand using explanatory variables. For example, in automobile insurance, an accident may result in payments for damage to one’s own vehicle, damage to another party’s vehicle, or personal injury. It is also common to be interested in the frequency of accidents in addition to the severity of the claim amounts. This paper synthesizes and extends the literature on multivariate frequency-severity regression modeling with a focus on insurance industry applications. Regression models for understanding the distribution of each outcome continue to be developed yet there now exists a solid body of literature for the marginal outcomes. This paper contributes to this body of literature by focusing on the use of a copula for modeling the dependence among these outcomes; a major advantage of this tool is that it preserves the body of work established for marginal models. We illustrate this approach using data from the Wisconsin Local Government Property Insurance Fund. This fund offers insurance protection for (i property; (ii motor vehicle; and (iii contractors’ equipment claims. In addition to several claim types and frequency-severity components, outcomes can be further categorized by time and space, requiring complex dependency modeling. We find significant dependencies for these data; specifically, we find that dependencies among lines are stronger than the dependencies between the frequency and average severity within each line.

  12. Augmented Beta rectangular regression models: A Bayesian perspective.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Jue; Luo, Sheng

    2016-01-01

    Mixed effects Beta regression models based on Beta distributions have been widely used to analyze longitudinal percentage or proportional data ranging between zero and one. However, Beta distributions are not flexible to extreme outliers or excessive events around tail areas, and they do not account for the presence of the boundary values zeros and ones because these values are not in the support of the Beta distributions. To address these issues, we propose a mixed effects model using Beta rectangular distribution and augment it with the probabilities of zero and one. We conduct extensive simulation studies to assess the performance of mixed effects models based on both the Beta and Beta rectangular distributions under various scenarios. The simulation studies suggest that the regression models based on Beta rectangular distributions improve the accuracy of parameter estimates in the presence of outliers and heavy tails. The proposed models are applied to the motivating Neuroprotection Exploratory Trials in Parkinson's Disease (PD) Long-term Study-1 (LS-1 study, n = 1741), developed by The National Institute of Neurological Disorders and Stroke Exploratory Trials in Parkinson's Disease (NINDS NET-PD) network. © 2015 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

  13. Regularized multivariate regression models with skew-t error distributions

    KAUST Repository

    Chen, Lianfu

    2014-06-01

    We consider regularization of the parameters in multivariate linear regression models with the errors having a multivariate skew-t distribution. An iterative penalized likelihood procedure is proposed for constructing sparse estimators of both the regression coefficient and inverse scale matrices simultaneously. The sparsity is introduced through penalizing the negative log-likelihood by adding L1-penalties on the entries of the two matrices. Taking advantage of the hierarchical representation of skew-t distributions, and using the expectation conditional maximization (ECM) algorithm, we reduce the problem to penalized normal likelihood and develop a procedure to minimize the ensuing objective function. Using a simulation study the performance of the method is assessed, and the methodology is illustrated using a real data set with a 24-dimensional response vector. © 2014 Elsevier B.V.

  14. Modeling the number of car theft using Poisson regression

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zulkifli, Malina; Ling, Agnes Beh Yen; Kasim, Maznah Mat; Ismail, Noriszura

    2016-10-01

    Regression analysis is the most popular statistical methods used to express the relationship between the variables of response with the covariates. The aim of this paper is to evaluate the factors that influence the number of car theft using Poisson regression model. This paper will focus on the number of car thefts that occurred in districts in Peninsular Malaysia. There are two groups of factor that have been considered, namely district descriptive factors and socio and demographic factors. The result of the study showed that Bumiputera composition, Chinese composition, Other ethnic composition, foreign migration, number of residence with the age between 25 to 64, number of employed person and number of unemployed person are the most influence factors that affect the car theft cases. These information are very useful for the law enforcement department, insurance company and car owners in order to reduce and limiting the car theft cases in Peninsular Malaysia.

  15. Panel data nonparametric estimation of production risk and risk preferences

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Czekaj, Tomasz Gerard; Henningsen, Arne

    approaches for obtaining firm-specific measures of risk attitudes. We found that Polish dairy farmers are risk averse regarding production risk and price uncertainty. According to our results, Polish dairy farmers perceive the production risk as being more significant than the risk related to output price......We apply nonparametric panel data kernel regression to investigate production risk, out-put price uncertainty, and risk attitudes of Polish dairy farms based on a firm-level unbalanced panel data set that covers the period 2004–2010. We compare different model specifications and different...

  16. Dynamic Regression Intervention Modeling for the Malaysian Daily Load

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fadhilah Abdrazak

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available Malaysia is a unique country due to having both fixed and moving holidays.  These moving holidays may overlap with other fixed holidays and therefore, increase the complexity of the load forecasting activities. The errors due to holidays’ effects in the load forecasting are known to be higher than other factors.  If these effects can be estimated and removed, the behavior of the series could be better viewed.  Thus, the aim of this paper is to improve the forecasting errors by using a dynamic regression model with intervention analysis.   Based on the linear transfer function method, a daily load model consists of either peak or average is developed.  The developed model outperformed the seasonal ARIMA model in estimating the fixed and moving holidays’ effects and achieved a smaller Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE in load forecast.

  17. Learning Supervised Topic Models for Classification and Regression from Crowds.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodrigues, Filipe; Lourenco, Mariana; Ribeiro, Bernardete; Pereira, Francisco C

    2017-12-01

    The growing need to analyze large collections of documents has led to great developments in topic modeling. Since documents are frequently associated with other related variables, such as labels or ratings, much interest has been placed on supervised topic models. However, the nature of most annotation tasks, prone to ambiguity and noise, often with high volumes of documents, deem learning under a single-annotator assumption unrealistic or unpractical for most real-world applications. In this article, we propose two supervised topic models, one for classification and another for regression problems, which account for the heterogeneity and biases among different annotators that are encountered in practice when learning from crowds. We develop an efficient stochastic variational inference algorithm that is able to scale to very large datasets, and we empirically demonstrate the advantages of the proposed model over state-of-the-art approaches.

  18. Continuous validation of ASTEC containment models and regression testing

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nowack, Holger; Reinke, Nils; Sonnenkalb, Martin

    2014-01-01

    The focus of the ASTEC (Accident Source Term Evaluation Code) development at GRS is primarily on the containment module CPA (Containment Part of ASTEC), whose modelling is to a large extent based on the GRS containment code COCOSYS (COntainment COde SYStem). Validation is usually understood as the approval of the modelling capabilities by calculations of appropriate experiments done by external users different from the code developers. During the development process of ASTEC CPA, bugs and unintended side effects may occur, which leads to changes in the results of the initially conducted validation. Due to the involvement of a considerable number of developers in the coding of ASTEC modules, validation of the code alone, even if executed repeatedly, is not sufficient. Therefore, a regression testing procedure has been implemented in order to ensure that the initially obtained validation results are still valid with succeeding code versions. Within the regression testing procedure, calculations of experiments and plant sequences are performed with the same input deck but applying two different code versions. For every test-case the up-to-date code version is compared to the preceding one on the basis of physical parameters deemed to be characteristic for the test-case under consideration. In the case of post-calculations of experiments also a comparison to experimental data is carried out. Three validation cases from the regression testing procedure are presented within this paper. The very good post-calculation of the HDR E11.1 experiment shows the high quality modelling of thermal-hydraulics in ASTEC CPA. Aerosol behaviour is validated on the BMC VANAM M3 experiment, and the results show also a very good agreement with experimental data. Finally, iodine behaviour is checked in the validation test-case of the THAI IOD-11 experiment. Within this test-case, the comparison of the ASTEC versions V2.0r1 and V2.0r2 shows how an error was detected by the regression testing

  19. Modeling of the Monthly Rainfall-Runoff Process Through Regressions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Campos-Aranda Daniel Francisco

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available To solve the problems associated with the assessment of water resources of a river, the modeling of the rainfall-runoff process (RRP allows the deduction of runoff missing data and to extend its record, since generally the information available on precipitation is larger. It also enables the estimation of inputs to reservoirs, when their building led to the suppression of the gauging station. The simplest mathematical model that can be set for the RRP is the linear regression or curve on a monthly basis. Such a model is described in detail and is calibrated with the simultaneous record of monthly rainfall and runoff in Ballesmi hydrometric station, which covers 35 years. Since the runoff of this station has an important contribution from the spring discharge, the record is corrected first by removing that contribution. In order to do this a procedure was developed based either on the monthly average regional runoff coefficients or on nearby and similar watershed; in this case the Tancuilín gauging station was used. Both stations belong to the Partial Hydrologic Region No. 26 (Lower Rio Panuco and are located within the state of San Luis Potosi, México. The study performed indicates that the monthly regression model, due to its conceptual approach, faithfully reproduces monthly average runoff volumes and achieves an excellent approximation in relation to the dispersion, proved by calculation of the means and standard deviations.

  20. Genetic evaluation of European quails by random regression models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Flaviana Miranda Gonçalves

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available The objective of this study was to compare different random regression models, defined from different classes of heterogeneity of variance combined with different Legendre polynomial orders for the estimate of (covariance of quails. The data came from 28,076 observations of 4,507 female meat quails of the LF1 lineage. Quail body weights were determined at birth and 1, 14, 21, 28, 35 and 42 days of age. Six different classes of residual variance were fitted to Legendre polynomial functions (orders ranging from 2 to 6 to determine which model had the best fit to describe the (covariance structures as a function of time. According to the evaluated criteria (AIC, BIC and LRT, the model with six classes of residual variances and of sixth-order Legendre polynomial was the best fit. The estimated additive genetic variance increased from birth to 28 days of age, and dropped slightly from 35 to 42 days. The heritability estimates decreased along the growth curve and changed from 0.51 (1 day to 0.16 (42 days. Animal genetic and permanent environmental correlation estimates between weights and age classes were always high and positive, except for birth weight. The sixth order Legendre polynomial, along with the residual variance divided into six classes was the best fit for the growth rate curve of meat quails; therefore, they should be considered for breeding evaluation processes by random regression models.

  1. Interpreting parameters in the logistic regression model with random effects

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larsen, Klaus; Petersen, Jørgen Holm; Budtz-Jørgensen, Esben

    2000-01-01

    interpretation, interval odds ratio, logistic regression, median odds ratio, normally distributed random effects......interpretation, interval odds ratio, logistic regression, median odds ratio, normally distributed random effects...

  2. Learning Supervised Topic Models for Classification and Regression from Crowds

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rodrigues, Filipe; Lourenco, Mariana; Ribeiro, Bernardete

    2017-01-01

    problems, which account for the heterogeneity and biases among different annotators that are encountered in practice when learning from crowds. We develop an efficient stochastic variational inference algorithm that is able to scale to very large datasets, and we empirically demonstrate the advantages...... annotation tasks, prone to ambiguity and noise, often with high volumes of documents, deem learning under a single-annotator assumption unrealistic or unpractical for most real-world applications. In this article, we propose two supervised topic models, one for classification and another for regression...

  3. Preference learning with evolutionary Multivariate Adaptive Regression Spline model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Abou-Zleikha, Mohamed; Shaker, Noor; Christensen, Mads Græsbøll

    2015-01-01

    This paper introduces a novel approach for pairwise preference learning through combining an evolutionary method with Multivariate Adaptive Regression Spline (MARS). Collecting users' feedback through pairwise preferences is recommended over other ranking approaches as this method is more appealing...... for function approximation as well as being relatively easy to interpret. MARS models are evolved based on their efficiency in learning pairwise data. The method is tested on two datasets that collectively provide pairwise preference data of five cognitive states expressed by users. The method is analysed...

  4. Predicting Performance on MOOC Assessments using Multi-Regression Models

    OpenAIRE

    Ren, Zhiyun; Rangwala, Huzefa; Johri, Aditya

    2016-01-01

    The past few years has seen the rapid growth of data min- ing approaches for the analysis of data obtained from Mas- sive Open Online Courses (MOOCs). The objectives of this study are to develop approaches to predict the scores a stu- dent may achieve on a given grade-related assessment based on information, considered as prior performance or prior ac- tivity in the course. We develop a personalized linear mul- tiple regression (PLMR) model to predict the grade for a student, prior to attempt...

  5. Analytical and regression models of glass rod drawing process

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alekseeva, L. B.

    2018-03-01

    The process of drawing glass rods (light guides) is being studied. The parameters of the process affecting the quality of the light guide have been determined. To solve the problem, mathematical models based on general equations of continuum mechanics are used. The conditions for the stable flow of the drawing process have been found, which are determined by the stability of the motion of the glass mass in the formation zone to small uncontrolled perturbations. The sensitivity of the formation zone to perturbations of the drawing speed and viscosity is estimated. Experimental models of the drawing process, based on the regression analysis methods, have been obtained. These models make it possible to customize a specific production process to obtain light guides of the required quality. They allow one to find the optimum combination of process parameters in the chosen area and to determine the required accuracy of maintaining them at a specified level.

  6. Regression Models for Predicting Force Coefficients of Aerofoils

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohammed ABDUL AKBAR

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available Renewable sources of energy are attractive and advantageous in a lot of different ways. Among the renewable energy sources, wind energy is the fastest growing type. Among wind energy converters, Vertical axis wind turbines (VAWTs have received renewed interest in the past decade due to some of the advantages they possess over their horizontal axis counterparts. VAWTs have evolved into complex 3-D shapes. A key component in predicting the output of VAWTs through analytical studies is obtaining the values of lift and drag coefficients which is a function of shape of the aerofoil, ‘angle of attack’ of wind and Reynolds’s number of flow. Sandia National Laboratories have carried out extensive experiments on aerofoils for the Reynolds number in the range of those experienced by VAWTs. The volume of experimental data thus obtained is huge. The current paper discusses three Regression analysis models developed wherein lift and drag coefficients can be found out using simple formula without having to deal with the bulk of the data. Drag coefficients and Lift coefficients were being successfully estimated by regression models with R2 values as high as 0.98.

  7. Nonparametric statistical inference

    CERN Document Server

    Gibbons, Jean Dickinson

    2014-01-01

    Thoroughly revised and reorganized, the fourth edition presents in-depth coverage of the theory and methods of the most widely used nonparametric procedures in statistical analysis and offers example applications appropriate for all areas of the social, behavioral, and life sciences. The book presents new material on the quantiles, the calculation of exact and simulated power, multiple comparisons, additional goodness-of-fit tests, methods of analysis of count data, and modern computer applications using MINITAB, SAS, and STATXACT. It includes tabular guides for simplified applications of tests and finding P values and confidence interval estimates.

  8. Conditional Monte Carlo randomization tests for regression models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parhat, Parwen; Rosenberger, William F; Diao, Guoqing

    2014-08-15

    We discuss the computation of randomization tests for clinical trials of two treatments when the primary outcome is based on a regression model. We begin by revisiting the seminal paper of Gail, Tan, and Piantadosi (1988), and then describe a method based on Monte Carlo generation of randomization sequences. The tests based on this Monte Carlo procedure are design based, in that they incorporate the particular randomization procedure used. We discuss permuted block designs, complete randomization, and biased coin designs. We also use a new technique by Plamadeala and Rosenberger (2012) for simple computation of conditional randomization tests. Like Gail, Tan, and Piantadosi, we focus on residuals from generalized linear models and martingale residuals from survival models. Such techniques do not apply to longitudinal data analysis, and we introduce a method for computation of randomization tests based on the predicted rate of change from a generalized linear mixed model when outcomes are longitudinal. We show, by simulation, that these randomization tests preserve the size and power well under model misspecification. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  9. Global Land Use Regression Model for Nitrogen Dioxide Air Pollution.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Larkin, Andrew; Geddes, Jeffrey A; Martin, Randall V; Xiao, Qingyang; Liu, Yang; Marshall, Julian D; Brauer, Michael; Hystad, Perry

    2017-06-20

    Nitrogen dioxide is a common air pollutant with growing evidence of health impacts independent of other common pollutants such as ozone and particulate matter. However, the worldwide distribution of NO 2 exposure and associated impacts on health is still largely uncertain. To advance global exposure estimates we created a global nitrogen dioxide (NO 2 ) land use regression model for 2011 using annual measurements from 5,220 air monitors in 58 countries. The model captured 54% of global NO 2 variation, with a mean absolute error of 3.7 ppb. Regional performance varied from R 2 = 0.42 (Africa) to 0.67 (South America). Repeated 10% cross-validation using bootstrap sampling (n = 10,000) demonstrated a robust performance with respect to air monitor sampling in North America, Europe, and Asia (adjusted R 2 within 2%) but not for Africa and Oceania (adjusted R 2 within 11%) where NO 2 monitoring data are sparse. The final model included 10 variables that captured both between and within-city spatial gradients in NO 2 concentrations. Variable contributions differed between continental regions, but major roads within 100 m and satellite-derived NO 2 were consistently the strongest predictors. The resulting model can be used for global risk assessments and health studies, particularly in countries without existing NO 2 monitoring data or models.

  10. A non-parametric framework for estimating threshold limit values

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ulm Kurt

    2005-11-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background To estimate a threshold limit value for a compound known to have harmful health effects, an 'elbow' threshold model is usually applied. We are interested on non-parametric flexible alternatives. Methods We describe how a step function model fitted by isotonic regression can be used to estimate threshold limit values. This method returns a set of candidate locations, and we discuss two algorithms to select the threshold among them: the reduced isotonic regression and an algorithm considering the closed family of hypotheses. We assess the performance of these two alternative approaches under different scenarios in a simulation study. We illustrate the framework by analysing the data from a study conducted by the German Research Foundation aiming to set a threshold limit value in the exposure to total dust at workplace, as a causal agent for developing chronic bronchitis. Results In the paper we demonstrate the use and the properties of the proposed methodology along with the results from an application. The method appears to detect the threshold with satisfactory success. However, its performance can be compromised by the low power to reject the constant risk assumption when the true dose-response relationship is weak. Conclusion The estimation of thresholds based on isotonic framework is conceptually simple and sufficiently powerful. Given that in threshold value estimation context there is not a gold standard method, the proposed model provides a useful non-parametric alternative to the standard approaches and can corroborate or challenge their findings.

  11. Drought Patterns Forecasting using an Auto-Regressive Logistic Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    del Jesus, M.; Sheffield, J.; Méndez Incera, F. J.; Losada, I. J.; Espejo, A.

    2014-12-01

    Drought is characterized by a water deficit that may manifest across a large range of spatial and temporal scales. Drought may create important socio-economic consequences, many times of catastrophic dimensions. A quantifiable definition of drought is elusive because depending on its impacts, consequences and generation mechanism, different water deficit periods may be identified as a drought by virtue of some definitions but not by others. Droughts are linked to the water cycle and, although a climate change signal may not have emerged yet, they are also intimately linked to climate.In this work we develop an auto-regressive logistic model for drought prediction at different temporal scales that makes use of a spatially explicit framework. Our model allows to include covariates, continuous or categorical, to improve the performance of the auto-regressive component.Our approach makes use of dimensionality reduction (principal component analysis) and classification techniques (K-Means and maximum dissimilarity) to simplify the representation of complex climatic patterns, such as sea surface temperature (SST) and sea level pressure (SLP), while including information on their spatial structure, i.e. considering their spatial patterns. This procedure allows us to include in the analysis multivariate representation of complex climatic phenomena, as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation. We also explore the impact of other climate-related variables such as sun spots. The model allows to quantify the uncertainty of the forecasts and can be easily adapted to make predictions under future climatic scenarios. The framework herein presented may be extended to other applications such as flash flood analysis, or risk assessment of natural hazards.

  12. A Gompertz regression model for fern spores germination

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gabriel y Galán, Jose María

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Germination is one of the most important biological processes for both seed and spore plants, also for fungi. At present, mathematical models of germination have been developed in fungi, bryophytes and several plant species. However, ferns are the only group whose germination has never been modelled. In this work we develop a regression model of the germination of fern spores. We have found that for Blechnum serrulatum, Blechnum yungense, Cheilanthes pilosa, Niphidium macbridei and Polypodium feuillei species the Gompertz growth model describe satisfactorily cumulative germination. An important result is that regression parameters are independent of fern species and the model is not affected by intraspecific variation. Our results show that the Gompertz curve represents a general germination model for all the non-green spore leptosporangiate ferns, including in the paper a discussion about the physiological and ecological meaning of the model.La germinación es uno de los procesos biológicos más relevantes tanto para las plantas con esporas, como para las plantas con semillas y los hongos. Hasta el momento, se han desarrollado modelos de germinación para hongos, briofitos y diversas especies de espermatófitos. Los helechos son el único grupo de plantas cuya germinación nunca ha sido modelizada. En este trabajo se desarrolla un modelo de regresión para explicar la germinación de las esporas de helechos. Observamos que para las especies Blechnum serrulatum, Blechnum yungense, Cheilanthes pilosa, Niphidium macbridei y Polypodium feuillei el modelo de crecimiento de Gompertz describe satisfactoriamente la germinación acumulativa. Un importante resultado es que los parámetros de la regresión son independientes de la especie y que el modelo no está afectado por variación intraespecífica. Por lo tanto, los resultados del trabajo muestran que la curva de Gompertz puede representar un modelo general para todos los helechos leptosporangiados

  13. Collision prediction models using multivariate Poisson-lognormal regression.

    Science.gov (United States)

    El-Basyouny, Karim; Sayed, Tarek

    2009-07-01

    This paper advocates the use of multivariate Poisson-lognormal (MVPLN) regression to develop models for collision count data. The MVPLN approach presents an opportunity to incorporate the correlations across collision severity levels and their influence on safety analyses. The paper introduces a new multivariate hazardous location identification technique, which generalizes the univariate posterior probability of excess that has been commonly proposed and applied in the literature. In addition, the paper presents an alternative approach for quantifying the effect of the multivariate structure on the precision of expected collision frequency. The MVPLN approach is compared with the independent (separate) univariate Poisson-lognormal (PLN) models with respect to model inference, goodness-of-fit, identification of hot spots and precision of expected collision frequency. The MVPLN is modeled using the WinBUGS platform which facilitates computation of posterior distributions as well as providing a goodness-of-fit measure for model comparisons. The results indicate that the estimates of the extra Poisson variation parameters were considerably smaller under MVPLN leading to higher precision. The improvement in precision is due mainly to the fact that MVPLN accounts for the correlation between the latent variables representing property damage only (PDO) and injuries plus fatalities (I+F). This correlation was estimated at 0.758, which is highly significant, suggesting that higher PDO rates are associated with higher I+F rates, as the collision likelihood for both types is likely to rise due to similar deficiencies in roadway design and/or other unobserved factors. In terms of goodness-of-fit, the MVPLN model provided a superior fit than the independent univariate models. The multivariate hazardous location identification results demonstrated that some hazardous locations could be overlooked if the analysis was restricted to the univariate models.

  14. THE REGRESSION MODEL OF IRAN LIBRARIES ORGANIZATIONAL CLIMATE.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jahani, Mohammad Ali; Yaminfirooz, Mousa; Siamian, Hasan

    2015-10-01

    The purpose of this study was to drawing a regression model of organizational climate of central libraries of Iran's universities. This study is an applied research. The statistical population of this study consisted of 96 employees of the central libraries of Iran's public universities selected among the 117 universities affiliated to the Ministry of Health by Stratified Sampling method (510 people). Climate Qual localized questionnaire was used as research tools. For predicting the organizational climate pattern of the libraries is used from the multivariate linear regression and track diagram. of the 9 variables affecting organizational climate, 5 variables of innovation, teamwork, customer service, psychological safety and deep diversity play a major role in prediction of the organizational climate of Iran's libraries. The results also indicate that each of these variables with different coefficient have the power to predict organizational climate but the climate score of psychological safety (0.94) plays a very crucial role in predicting the organizational climate. Track diagram showed that five variables of teamwork, customer service, psychological safety, deep diversity and innovation directly effects on the organizational climate variable that contribution of the team work from this influence is more than any other variables. Of the indicator of the organizational climate of climateQual, the contribution of the team work from this influence is more than any other variables that reinforcement of teamwork in academic libraries can be more effective in improving the organizational climate of this type libraries.

  15. Bayesian nonparametric estimation of continuous monotone functions with applications to dose-response analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bornkamp, Björn; Ickstadt, Katja

    2009-03-01

    In this article, we consider monotone nonparametric regression in a Bayesian framework. The monotone function is modeled as a mixture of shifted and scaled parametric probability distribution functions, and a general random probability measure is assumed as the prior for the mixing distribution. We investigate the choice of the underlying parametric distribution function and find that the two-sided power distribution function is well suited both from a computational and mathematical point of view. The model is motivated by traditional nonlinear models for dose-response analysis, and provides possibilities to elicitate informative prior distributions on different aspects of the curve. The method is compared with other recent approaches to monotone nonparametric regression in a simulation study and is illustrated on a data set from dose-response analysis.

  16. Meta-Modeling by Symbolic Regression and Pareto Simulated Annealing

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Stinstra, E.; Rennen, G.; Teeuwen, G.J.A.

    2006-01-01

    The subject of this paper is a new approach to Symbolic Regression.Other publications on Symbolic Regression use Genetic Programming.This paper describes an alternative method based on Pareto Simulated Annealing.Our method is based on linear regression for the estimation of constants.Interval

  17. Modeling Information Content Via Dirichlet-Multinomial Regression Analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ferrari, Alberto

    2017-01-01

    Shannon entropy is being increasingly used in biomedical research as an index of complexity and information content in sequences of symbols, e.g. languages, amino acid sequences, DNA methylation patterns and animal vocalizations. Yet, distributional properties of information entropy as a random variable have seldom been the object of study, leading to researchers mainly using linear models or simulation-based analytical approach to assess differences in information content, when entropy is measured repeatedly in different experimental conditions. Here a method to perform inference on entropy in such conditions is proposed. Building on results coming from studies in the field of Bayesian entropy estimation, a symmetric Dirichlet-multinomial regression model, able to deal efficiently with the issue of mean entropy estimation, is formulated. Through a simulation study the model is shown to outperform linear modeling in a vast range of scenarios and to have promising statistical properties. As a practical example, the method is applied to a data set coming from a real experiment on animal communication.

  18. Variable selection in Logistic regression model with genetic algorithm.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Zhongheng; Trevino, Victor; Hoseini, Sayed Shahabuddin; Belciug, Smaranda; Boopathi, Arumugam Manivanna; Zhang, Ping; Gorunescu, Florin; Subha, Velappan; Dai, Songshi

    2018-02-01

    Variable or feature selection is one of the most important steps in model specification. Especially in the case of medical-decision making, the direct use of a medical database, without a previous analysis and preprocessing step, is often counterproductive. In this way, the variable selection represents the method of choosing the most relevant attributes from the database in order to build a robust learning models and, thus, to improve the performance of the models used in the decision process. In biomedical research, the purpose of variable selection is to select clinically important and statistically significant variables, while excluding unrelated or noise variables. A variety of methods exist for variable selection, but none of them is without limitations. For example, the stepwise approach, which is highly used, adds the best variable in each cycle generally producing an acceptable set of variables. Nevertheless, it is limited by the fact that it commonly trapped in local optima. The best subset approach can systematically search the entire covariate pattern space, but the solution pool can be extremely large with tens to hundreds of variables, which is the case in nowadays clinical data. Genetic algorithms (GA) are heuristic optimization approaches and can be used for variable selection in multivariable regression models. This tutorial paper aims to provide a step-by-step approach to the use of GA in variable selection. The R code provided in the text can be extended and adapted to other data analysis needs.

  19. Electricity prices forecasting by automatic dynamic harmonic regression models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pedregal, Diego J.; Trapero, Juan R.

    2007-01-01

    The changes experienced by electricity markets in recent years have created the necessity for more accurate forecast tools of electricity prices, both for producers and consumers. Many methodologies have been applied to this aim, but in the view of the authors, state space models are not yet fully exploited. The present paper proposes a univariate dynamic harmonic regression model set up in a state space framework for forecasting prices in these markets. The advantages of the approach are threefold. Firstly, a fast automatic identification and estimation procedure is proposed based on the frequency domain. Secondly, the recursive algorithms applied offer adaptive predictions that compare favourably with respect to other techniques. Finally, since the method is based on unobserved components models, explicit information about trend, seasonal and irregular behaviours of the series can be extracted. This information is of great value to the electricity companies' managers in order to improve their strategies, i.e. it provides management innovations. The good forecast performance and the rapid adaptability of the model to changes in the data are illustrated with actual prices taken from the PJM interconnection in the US and for the Spanish market for the year 2002. (author)

  20. Characteristics and Properties of a Simple Linear Regression Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kowal Robert

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available A simple linear regression model is one of the pillars of classic econometrics. Despite the passage of time, it continues to raise interest both from the theoretical side as well as from the application side. One of the many fundamental questions in the model concerns determining derivative characteristics and studying the properties existing in their scope, referring to the first of these aspects. The literature of the subject provides several classic solutions in that regard. In the paper, a completely new design is proposed, based on the direct application of variance and its properties, resulting from the non-correlation of certain estimators with the mean, within the scope of which some fundamental dependencies of the model characteristics are obtained in a much more compact manner. The apparatus allows for a simple and uniform demonstration of multiple dependencies and fundamental properties in the model, and it does it in an intuitive manner. The results were obtained in a classic, traditional area, where everything, as it might seem, has already been thoroughly studied and discovered.

  1. Bayesian Regression of Thermodynamic Models of Redox Active Materials

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Johnston, Katherine [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

    2017-09-01

    Finding a suitable functional redox material is a critical challenge to achieving scalable, economically viable technologies for storing concentrated solar energy in the form of a defected oxide. Demonstrating e ectiveness for thermal storage or solar fuel is largely accomplished by using a thermodynamic model derived from experimental data. The purpose of this project is to test the accuracy of our regression model on representative data sets. Determining the accuracy of the model includes parameter tting the model to the data, comparing the model using di erent numbers of param- eters, and analyzing the entropy and enthalpy calculated from the model. Three data sets were considered in this project: two demonstrating materials for solar fuels by wa- ter splitting and the other of a material for thermal storage. Using Bayesian Inference and Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC), parameter estimation was preformed on the three data sets. Good results were achieved, except some there was some deviations on the edges of the data input ranges. The evidence values were then calculated in a variety of ways and used to compare models with di erent number of parameters. It was believed that at least one of the parameters was unnecessary and comparing evidence values demonstrated that the parameter was need on one data set and not signi cantly helpful on another. The entropy was calculated by taking the derivative in one variable and integrating over another. and its uncertainty was also calculated by evaluating the entropy over multiple MCMC samples. Afterwards, all the parts were written up as a tutorial for the Uncertainty Quanti cation Toolkit (UQTk).

  2. Convergence diagnostics for Eigenvalue problems with linear regression model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shi, Bo; Petrovic, Bojan

    2011-01-01

    Although the Monte Carlo method has been extensively used for criticality/Eigenvalue problems, a reliable, robust, and efficient convergence diagnostics method is still desired. Most methods are based on integral parameters (multiplication factor, entropy) and either condense the local distribution information into a single value (e.g., entropy) or even disregard it. We propose to employ the detailed cycle-by-cycle local flux evolution obtained by using mesh tally mechanism to assess the source and flux convergence. By applying a linear regression model to each individual mesh in a mesh tally for convergence diagnostics, a global convergence criterion can be obtained. We exemplify this method on two problems and obtain promising diagnostics results. (author)

  3. The R Package threg to Implement Threshold Regression Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tao Xiao

    2015-08-01

    This new package includes four functions: threg, and the methods hr, predict and plot for threg objects returned by threg. The threg function is the model-fitting function which is used to calculate regression coefficient estimates, asymptotic standard errors and p values. The hr method for threg objects is the hazard-ratio calculation function which provides the estimates of hazard ratios at selected time points for specified scenarios (based on given categories or value settings of covariates. The predict method for threg objects is used for prediction. And the plot method for threg objects provides plots for curves of estimated hazard functions, survival functions and probability density functions of the first-hitting-time; function curves corresponding to different scenarios can be overlaid in the same plot for comparison to give additional research insights.

  4. Multiple linear regression and regression with time series error models in forecasting PM10 concentrations in Peninsular Malaysia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ng, Kar Yong; Awang, Norhashidah

    2018-01-06

    Frequent haze occurrences in Malaysia have made the management of PM 10 (particulate matter with aerodynamic less than 10 μm) pollution a critical task. This requires knowledge on factors associating with PM 10 variation and good forecast of PM 10 concentrations. Hence, this paper demonstrates the prediction of 1-day-ahead daily average PM 10 concentrations based on predictor variables including meteorological parameters and gaseous pollutants. Three different models were built. They were multiple linear regression (MLR) model with lagged predictor variables (MLR1), MLR model with lagged predictor variables and PM 10 concentrations (MLR2) and regression with time series error (RTSE) model. The findings revealed that humidity, temperature, wind speed, wind direction, carbon monoxide and ozone were the main factors explaining the PM 10 variation in Peninsular Malaysia. Comparison among the three models showed that MLR2 model was on a same level with RTSE model in terms of forecasting accuracy, while MLR1 model was the worst.

  5. Ultracentrifuge separative power modeling with multivariate regression using covariance matrix

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Migliavacca, Elder

    2004-01-01

    In this work, the least-squares methodology with covariance matrix is applied to determine a data curve fitting to obtain a performance function for the separative power δU of a ultracentrifuge as a function of variables that are experimentally controlled. The experimental data refer to 460 experiments on the ultracentrifugation process for uranium isotope separation. The experimental uncertainties related with these independent variables are considered in the calculation of the experimental separative power values, determining an experimental data input covariance matrix. The process variables, which significantly influence the δU values are chosen in order to give information on the ultracentrifuge behaviour when submitted to several levels of feed flow rate F, cut θ and product line pressure P p . After the model goodness-of-fit validation, a residual analysis is carried out to verify the assumed basis concerning its randomness and independence and mainly the existence of residual heteroscedasticity with any explained regression model variable. The surface curves are made relating the separative power with the control variables F, θ and P p to compare the fitted model with the experimental data and finally to calculate their optimized values. (author)

  6. Modeling Pan Evaporation for Kuwait by Multiple Linear Regression

    Science.gov (United States)

    Almedeij, Jaber

    2012-01-01

    Evaporation is an important parameter for many projects related to hydrology and water resources systems. This paper constitutes the first study conducted in Kuwait to obtain empirical relations for the estimation of daily and monthly pan evaporation as functions of available meteorological data of temperature, relative humidity, and wind speed. The data used here for the modeling are daily measurements of substantial continuity coverage, within a period of 17 years between January 1993 and December 2009, which can be considered representative of the desert climate of the urban zone of the country. Multiple linear regression technique is used with a procedure of variable selection for fitting the best model forms. The correlations of evaporation with temperature and relative humidity are also transformed in order to linearize the existing curvilinear patterns of the data by using power and exponential functions, respectively. The evaporation models suggested with the best variable combinations were shown to produce results that are in a reasonable agreement with observation values. PMID:23226984

  7. A History of Regression and Related Model-Fitting in the Earth Sciences (1636?-2000)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Howarth, Richard J.

    2001-01-01

    roots in meeting the evident need for improved estimators in spatial interpolation. Technical advances in regression analysis during the 1970s embraced the development of regression diagnostics and consequent attention to outliers; the recognition of problems caused by correlated predictors, and the subsequent introduction of ridge regression to overcome them; and techniques for fitting errors-in-variables and mixture models. Improvements in computational power have enabled ever more computer-intensive methods to be applied. These include algorithms which are robust in the presence of outliers, for example Rousseeuw's 1984 Least Median Squares; nonparametric smoothing methods, such as kernel-functions, splines and Cleveland's 1979 LOcally WEighted Scatterplot Smoother (LOWESS); and the Classification and Regression Tree (CART) technique of Breiman and others in 1984. Despite a continuing improvement in the rate of technology-transfer from the statistical to the earth-science community, despite an abrupt drop to a time-lag of about 10 years following the introduction of digital computers, these more recent developments are only just beginning to penetrate beyond the research community of earth scientists. Examples of applications to problem-solving in the earth sciences are given

  8. Short-term electricity prices forecasting based on support vector regression and Auto-regressive integrated moving average modeling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Che Jinxing; Wang Jianzhou

    2010-01-01

    In this paper, we present the use of different mathematical models to forecast electricity price under deregulated power. A successful prediction tool of electricity price can help both power producers and consumers plan their bidding strategies. Inspired by that the support vector regression (SVR) model, with the ε-insensitive loss function, admits of the residual within the boundary values of ε-tube, we propose a hybrid model that combines both SVR and Auto-regressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models to take advantage of the unique strength of SVR and ARIMA models in nonlinear and linear modeling, which is called SVRARIMA. A nonlinear analysis of the time-series indicates the convenience of nonlinear modeling, the SVR is applied to capture the nonlinear patterns. ARIMA models have been successfully applied in solving the residuals regression estimation problems. The experimental results demonstrate that the model proposed outperforms the existing neural-network approaches, the traditional ARIMA models and other hybrid models based on the root mean square error and mean absolute percentage error.

  9. Nonparametric e-Mixture Estimation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Takano, Ken; Hino, Hideitsu; Akaho, Shotaro; Murata, Noboru

    2016-12-01

    This study considers the common situation in data analysis when there are few observations of the distribution of interest or the target distribution, while abundant observations are available from auxiliary distributions. In this situation, it is natural to compensate for the lack of data from the target distribution by using data sets from these auxiliary distributions-in other words, approximating the target distribution in a subspace spanned by a set of auxiliary distributions. Mixture modeling is one of the simplest ways to integrate information from the target and auxiliary distributions in order to express the target distribution as accurately as possible. There are two typical mixtures in the context of information geometry: the [Formula: see text]- and [Formula: see text]-mixtures. The [Formula: see text]-mixture is applied in a variety of research fields because of the presence of the well-known expectation-maximazation algorithm for parameter estimation, whereas the [Formula: see text]-mixture is rarely used because of its difficulty of estimation, particularly for nonparametric models. The [Formula: see text]-mixture, however, is a well-tempered distribution that satisfies the principle of maximum entropy. To model a target distribution with scarce observations accurately, this letter proposes a novel framework for a nonparametric modeling of the [Formula: see text]-mixture and a geometrically inspired estimation algorithm. As numerical examples of the proposed framework, a transfer learning setup is considered. The experimental results show that this framework works well for three types of synthetic data sets, as well as an EEG real-world data set.

  10. An Ordered Regression Model to Predict Transit Passengers’ Behavioural Intentions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Oña, J. de; Oña, R. de; Eboli, L.; Forciniti, C.; Mazzulla, G.

    2016-07-01

    Passengers’ behavioural intentions after experiencing transit services can be viewed as signals that show if a customer continues to utilise a company’s service. Users’ behavioural intentions can depend on a series of aspects that are difficult to measure directly. More recently, transit passengers’ behavioural intentions have been just considered together with the concepts of service quality and customer satisfaction. Due to the characteristics of the ways for evaluating passengers’ behavioural intentions, service quality and customer satisfaction, we retain that this kind of issue could be analysed also by applying ordered regression models. This work aims to propose just an ordered probit model for analysing service quality factors that can influence passengers’ behavioural intentions towards the use of transit services. The case study is the LRT of Seville (Spain), where a survey was conducted in order to collect the opinions of the passengers about the existing transit service, and to have a measure of the aspects that can influence the intentions of the users to continue using the transit service in the future. (Author)

  11. Heterogeneous Breast Phantom Development for Microwave Imaging Using Regression Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Camerin Hahn

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available As new algorithms for microwave imaging emerge, it is important to have standard accurate benchmarking tests. Currently, most researchers use homogeneous phantoms for testing new algorithms. These simple structures lack the heterogeneity of the dielectric properties of human tissue and are inadequate for testing these algorithms for medical imaging. To adequately test breast microwave imaging algorithms, the phantom has to resemble different breast tissues physically and in terms of dielectric properties. We propose a systematic approach in designing phantoms that not only have dielectric properties close to breast tissues but also can be easily shaped to realistic physical models. The approach is based on regression model to match phantom's dielectric properties with the breast tissue dielectric properties found in Lazebnik et al. (2007. However, the methodology proposed here can be used to create phantoms for any tissue type as long as ex vivo, in vitro, or in vivo tissue dielectric properties are measured and available. Therefore, using this method, accurate benchmarking phantoms for testing emerging microwave imaging algorithms can be developed.

  12. Nonparametric predictive inference in statistical process control

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Arts, G.R.J.; Coolen, F.P.A.; Laan, van der P.

    2004-01-01

    Statistical process control (SPC) is used to decide when to stop a process as confidence in the quality of the next item(s) is low. Information to specify a parametric model is not always available, and as SPC is of a predictive nature, we present a control chart developed using nonparametric

  13. A Bayesian Nonparametric Approach to Factor Analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Piatek, Rémi; Papaspiliopoulos, Omiros

    2018-01-01

    This paper introduces a new approach for the inference of non-Gaussian factor models based on Bayesian nonparametric methods. It relaxes the usual normality assumption on the latent factors, widely used in practice, which is too restrictive in many settings. Our approach, on the contrary, does no...

  14. Health Care Facility Choice and User Fee Abolition: Regression Discontinuity in a Multinomial Choice Setting

    OpenAIRE

    Steven F. Koch; Jeffrey S. Racine

    2013-01-01

    We apply parametric and nonparametric regression discontinuity methodology within a multinomial choice setting to examine the impact of public health care user fee abolition on health facility choice using data from South Africa. The nonparametric model is found to outperform the parametric model both in- and out-of-sample, while also delivering more plausible estimates of the impact of user fee abolition (i.e. the 'treatment effect'). In the parametric framework, treatment effects were relat...

  15. application of multilinear regression analysis in modeling of soil

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Windows User

    Accordingly [1, 3] in their work, they applied linear regression ... (MLRA) is a statistical technique that uses several explanatory ... order to check this, they adopted bivariate correlation analysis .... groups, namely A-1 through A-7, based on their relative expected ..... Multivariate Regression in Gorgan Province North of Iran” ...

  16. Wheat flour dough Alveograph characteristics predicted by Mixolab regression models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Codină, Georgiana Gabriela; Mironeasa, Silvia; Mironeasa, Costel; Popa, Ciprian N; Tamba-Berehoiu, Radiana

    2012-02-01

    In Romania, the Alveograph is the most used device to evaluate the rheological properties of wheat flour dough, but lately the Mixolab device has begun to play an important role in the breadmaking industry. These two instruments are based on different principles but there are some correlations that can be found between the parameters determined by the Mixolab and the rheological properties of wheat dough measured with the Alveograph. Statistical analysis on 80 wheat flour samples using the backward stepwise multiple regression method showed that Mixolab values using the ‘Chopin S’ protocol (40 samples) and ‘Chopin + ’ protocol (40 samples) can be used to elaborate predictive models for estimating the value of the rheological properties of wheat dough: baking strength (W), dough tenacity (P) and extensibility (L). The correlation analysis confirmed significant findings (P 0.70 for P, R²(adjusted) > 0.70 for W and R²(adjusted) > 0.38 for L, at a 95% confidence interval. Copyright © 2011 Society of Chemical Industry.

  17. Application of regression model on stream water quality parameters

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Suleman, M.; Maqbool, F.; Malik, A.H.; Bhatti, Z.A.

    2012-01-01

    Statistical analysis was conducted to evaluate the effect of solid waste leachate from the open solid waste dumping site of Salhad on the stream water quality. Five sites were selected along the stream. Two sites were selected prior to mixing of leachate with the surface water. One was of leachate and other two sites were affected with leachate. Samples were analyzed for pH, water temperature, electrical conductivity (EC), total dissolved solids (TDS), Biological oxygen demand (BOD), chemical oxygen demand (COD), dissolved oxygen (DO) and total bacterial load (TBL). In this study correlation coefficient r among different water quality parameters of various sites were calculated by using Pearson model and then average of each correlation between two parameters were also calculated, which shows TDS and EC and pH and BOD have significantly increasing r value, while temperature and TDS, temp and EC, DO and BL, DO and COD have decreasing r value. Single factor ANOVA at 5% level of significance was used which shows EC, TDS, TCL and COD were significantly differ among various sites. By the application of these two statistical approaches TDS and EC shows strongly positive correlation because the ions from the dissolved solids in water influence the ability of that water to conduct an electrical current. These two parameters significantly vary among 5 sites which are further confirmed by using linear regression. (author)

  18. The microcomputer scientific software series 2: general linear model--regression.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harold M. Rauscher

    1983-01-01

    The general linear model regression (GLMR) program provides the microcomputer user with a sophisticated regression analysis capability. The output provides a regression ANOVA table, estimators of the regression model coefficients, their confidence intervals, confidence intervals around the predicted Y-values, residuals for plotting, a check for multicollinearity, a...

  19. MODELING SNAKE MICROHABITAT FROM RADIOTELEMETRY STUDIES USING POLYTOMOUS LOGISTIC REGRESSION

    Science.gov (United States)

    Multivariate analysis of snake microhabitat has historically used techniques that were derived under assumptions of normality and common covariance structure (e.g., discriminant function analysis, MANOVA). In this study, polytomous logistic regression (PLR which does not require ...

  20. Methods of Detecting Outliers in A Regression Analysis Model ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    PROF. O. E. OSUAGWU

    2013-06-01

    Jun 1, 2013 ... especially true in observational studies .... Simple linear regression and multiple ... The simple linear ..... Grubbs,F.E (1950): Sample Criteria for Testing Outlying observations: Annals of ... In experimental design, the Relative.

  1. 231 Using Multiple Regression Analysis in Modelling the Role of ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    User

    of Internal Revenue, Tourism Bureau and hotel records. The multiple regression .... additional guest facilities such as restaurant, a swimming pool or child care and social function ... and provide good quality service to the public. Conclusion.

  2. Modeling Fire Occurrence at the City Scale: A Comparison between Geographically Weighted Regression and Global Linear Regression.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Song, Chao; Kwan, Mei-Po; Zhu, Jiping

    2017-04-08

    An increasing number of fires are occurring with the rapid development of cities, resulting in increased risk for human beings and the environment. This study compares geographically weighted regression-based models, including geographically weighted regression (GWR) and geographically and temporally weighted regression (GTWR), which integrates spatial and temporal effects and global linear regression models (LM) for modeling fire risk at the city scale. The results show that the road density and the spatial distribution of enterprises have the strongest influences on fire risk, which implies that we should focus on areas where roads and enterprises are densely clustered. In addition, locations with a large number of enterprises have fewer fire ignition records, probably because of strict management and prevention measures. A changing number of significant variables across space indicate that heterogeneity mainly exists in the northern and eastern rural and suburban areas of Hefei city, where human-related facilities or road construction are only clustered in the city sub-centers. GTWR can capture small changes in the spatiotemporal heterogeneity of the variables while GWR and LM cannot. An approach that integrates space and time enables us to better understand the dynamic changes in fire risk. Thus governments can use the results to manage fire safety at the city scale.

  3. Direct modeling of regression effects for transition probabilities in the progressive illness-death model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Azarang, Leyla; Scheike, Thomas; de Uña-Álvarez, Jacobo

    2017-01-01

    In this work, we present direct regression analysis for the transition probabilities in the possibly non-Markov progressive illness–death model. The method is based on binomial regression, where the response is the indicator of the occupancy for the given state along time. Randomly weighted score...

  4. A logistic regression model for Ghana National Health Insurance claims

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Samuel Antwi

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available In August 2003, the Ghanaian Government made history by implementing the first National Health Insurance System (NHIS in Sub-Saharan Africa. Within three years, over half of the country’s population had voluntarily enrolled into the National Health Insurance Scheme. This study had three objectives: 1 To estimate the risk factors that influences the Ghana national health insurance claims. 2 To estimate the magnitude of each of the risk factors in relation to the Ghana national health insurance claims. In this work, data was collected from the policyholders of the Ghana National Health Insurance Scheme with the help of the National Health Insurance database and the patients’ attendance register of the Koforidua Regional Hospital, from 1st January to 31st December 2011. Quantitative analysis was done using the generalized linear regression (GLR models. The results indicate that risk factors such as sex, age, marital status, distance and length of stay at the hospital were important predictors of health insurance claims. However, it was found that the risk factors; health status, billed charges and income level are not good predictors of national health insurance claim. The outcome of the study shows that sex, age, marital status, distance and length of stay at the hospital are statistically significant in the determination of the Ghana National health insurance premiums since they considerably influence claims. We recommended, among other things that, the National Health Insurance Authority should facilitate the institutionalization of the collection of appropriate data on a continuous basis to help in the determination of future premiums.

  5. Bayesian Nonparametric Longitudinal Data Analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quintana, Fernando A; Johnson, Wesley O; Waetjen, Elaine; Gold, Ellen

    2016-01-01

    Practical Bayesian nonparametric methods have been developed across a wide variety of contexts. Here, we develop a novel statistical model that generalizes standard mixed models for longitudinal data that include flexible mean functions as well as combined compound symmetry (CS) and autoregressive (AR) covariance structures. AR structure is often specified through the use of a Gaussian process (GP) with covariance functions that allow longitudinal data to be more correlated if they are observed closer in time than if they are observed farther apart. We allow for AR structure by considering a broader class of models that incorporates a Dirichlet Process Mixture (DPM) over the covariance parameters of the GP. We are able to take advantage of modern Bayesian statistical methods in making full predictive inferences and about characteristics of longitudinal profiles and their differences across covariate combinations. We also take advantage of the generality of our model, which provides for estimation of a variety of covariance structures. We observe that models that fail to incorporate CS or AR structure can result in very poor estimation of a covariance or correlation matrix. In our illustration using hormone data observed on women through the menopausal transition, biology dictates the use of a generalized family of sigmoid functions as a model for time trends across subpopulation categories.

  6. 2nd Conference of the International Society for Nonparametric Statistics

    CERN Document Server

    Manteiga, Wenceslao; Romo, Juan

    2016-01-01

    This volume collects selected, peer-reviewed contributions from the 2nd Conference of the International Society for Nonparametric Statistics (ISNPS), held in Cádiz (Spain) between June 11–16 2014, and sponsored by the American Statistical Association, the Institute of Mathematical Statistics, the Bernoulli Society for Mathematical Statistics and Probability, the Journal of Nonparametric Statistics and Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. The 15 articles are a representative sample of the 336 contributed papers presented at the conference. They cover topics such as high-dimensional data modelling, inference for stochastic processes and for dependent data, nonparametric and goodness-of-fit testing, nonparametric curve estimation, object-oriented data analysis, and semiparametric inference. The aim of the ISNPS 2014 conference was to bring together recent advances and trends in several areas of nonparametric statistics in order to facilitate the exchange of research ideas, promote collaboration among researchers...

  7. Bayesian Analysis for Penalized Spline Regression Using WinBUGS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ciprian M. Crainiceanu

    2005-09-01

    Full Text Available Penalized splines can be viewed as BLUPs in a mixed model framework, which allows the use of mixed model software for smoothing. Thus, software originally developed for Bayesian analysis of mixed models can be used for penalized spline regression. Bayesian inference for nonparametric models enjoys the flexibility of nonparametric models and the exact inference provided by the Bayesian inferential machinery. This paper provides a simple, yet comprehensive, set of programs for the implementation of nonparametric Bayesian analysis in WinBUGS. Good mixing properties of the MCMC chains are obtained by using low-rank thin-plate splines, while simulation times per iteration are reduced employing WinBUGS specific computational tricks.

  8. Logistic regression modelling: procedures and pitfalls in developing and interpreting prediction models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nataša Šarlija

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available This study sheds light on the most common issues related to applying logistic regression in prediction models for company growth. The purpose of the paper is 1 to provide a detailed demonstration of the steps in developing a growth prediction model based on logistic regression analysis, 2 to discuss common pitfalls and methodological errors in developing a model, and 3 to provide solutions and possible ways of overcoming these issues. Special attention is devoted to the question of satisfying logistic regression assumptions, selecting and defining dependent and independent variables, using classification tables and ROC curves, for reporting model strength, interpreting odds ratios as effect measures and evaluating performance of the prediction model. Development of a logistic regression model in this paper focuses on a prediction model of company growth. The analysis is based on predominantly financial data from a sample of 1471 small and medium-sized Croatian companies active between 2009 and 2014. The financial data is presented in the form of financial ratios divided into nine main groups depicting following areas of business: liquidity, leverage, activity, profitability, research and development, investing and export. The growth prediction model indicates aspects of a business critical for achieving high growth. In that respect, the contribution of this paper is twofold. First, methodological, in terms of pointing out pitfalls and potential solutions in logistic regression modelling, and secondly, theoretical, in terms of identifying factors responsible for high growth of small and medium-sized companies.

  9. A nonparametric random coefficient approach for life expectancy growth using a hierarchical mixture likelihood model with application to regional data from North Rhine-Westphalia (Germany).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Böhning, Dankmar; Karasek, Sarah; Terschüren, Claudia; Annuß, Rolf; Fehr, Rainer

    2013-03-09

    Life expectancy is of increasing prime interest for a variety of reasons. In many countries, life expectancy is growing linearly, without any indication of reaching a limit. The state of North Rhine-Westphalia (NRW) in Germany with its 54 districts is considered here where the above mentioned growth in life expectancy is occurring as well. However, there is also empirical evidence that life expectancy is not growing linearly at the same level for different regions. To explore this situation further a likelihood-based cluster analysis is suggested and performed. The modelling uses a nonparametric mixture approach for the latent random effect. Maximum likelihood estimates are determined by means of the EM algorithm and the number of components in the mixture model are found on the basis of the Bayesian Information Criterion. Regions are classified into the mixture components (clusters) using the maximum posterior allocation rule. For the data analyzed here, 7 components are found with a spatial concentration of lower life expectancy levels in a centre of NRW, formerly an enormous conglomerate of heavy industry, still the most densely populated area with Gelsenkirchen having the lowest level of life expectancy growth for both genders. The paper offers some explanations for this fact including demographic and socio-economic sources. This case study shows that life expectancy growth is widely linear, but it might occur on different levels.

  10. Modelling subject-specific childhood growth using linear mixed-effect models with cubic regression splines.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grajeda, Laura M; Ivanescu, Andrada; Saito, Mayuko; Crainiceanu, Ciprian; Jaganath, Devan; Gilman, Robert H; Crabtree, Jean E; Kelleher, Dermott; Cabrera, Lilia; Cama, Vitaliano; Checkley, William

    2016-01-01

    Childhood growth is a cornerstone of pediatric research. Statistical models need to consider individual trajectories to adequately describe growth outcomes. Specifically, well-defined longitudinal models are essential to characterize both population and subject-specific growth. Linear mixed-effect models with cubic regression splines can account for the nonlinearity of growth curves and provide reasonable estimators of population and subject-specific growth, velocity and acceleration. We provide a stepwise approach that builds from simple to complex models, and account for the intrinsic complexity of the data. We start with standard cubic splines regression models and build up to a model that includes subject-specific random intercepts and slopes and residual autocorrelation. We then compared cubic regression splines vis-à-vis linear piecewise splines, and with varying number of knots and positions. Statistical code is provided to ensure reproducibility and improve dissemination of methods. Models are applied to longitudinal height measurements in a cohort of 215 Peruvian children followed from birth until their fourth year of life. Unexplained variability, as measured by the variance of the regression model, was reduced from 7.34 when using ordinary least squares to 0.81 (p linear mixed-effect models with random slopes and a first order continuous autoregressive error term. There was substantial heterogeneity in both the intercept (p modeled with a first order continuous autoregressive error term as evidenced by the variogram of the residuals and by a lack of association among residuals. The final model provides a parametric linear regression equation for both estimation and prediction of population- and individual-level growth in height. We show that cubic regression splines are superior to linear regression splines for the case of a small number of knots in both estimation and prediction with the full linear mixed effect model (AIC 19,352 vs. 19

  11. Nonparametric identification of copula structures

    KAUST Repository

    Li, Bo; Genton, Marc G.

    2013-01-01

    We propose a unified framework for testing a variety of assumptions commonly made about the structure of copulas, including symmetry, radial symmetry, joint symmetry, associativity and Archimedeanity, and max-stability. Our test is nonparametric

  12. Evaluation of Logistic Regression and Multivariate Adaptive Regression Spline Models for Groundwater Potential Mapping Using R and GIS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Soyoung Park

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available This study mapped and analyzed groundwater potential using two different models, logistic regression (LR and multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS, and compared the results. A spatial database was constructed for groundwater well data and groundwater influence factors. Groundwater well data with a high potential yield of ≥70 m3/d were extracted, and 859 locations (70% were used for model training, whereas the other 365 locations (30% were used for model validation. We analyzed 16 groundwater influence factors including altitude, slope degree, slope aspect, plan curvature, profile curvature, topographic wetness index, stream power index, sediment transport index, distance from drainage, drainage density, lithology, distance from fault, fault density, distance from lineament, lineament density, and land cover. Groundwater potential maps (GPMs were constructed using LR and MARS models and tested using a receiver operating characteristics curve. Based on this analysis, the area under the curve (AUC for the success rate curve of GPMs created using the MARS and LR models was 0.867 and 0.838, and the AUC for the prediction rate curve was 0.836 and 0.801, respectively. This implies that the MARS model is useful and effective for groundwater potential analysis in the study area.

  13. Semiparametric nonlinear quantile regression model for financial returns

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Avdulaj, Krenar; Baruník, Jozef

    2017-01-01

    Roč. 21, č. 1 (2017), s. 81-97 ISSN 1081-1826 R&D Projects: GA ČR(CZ) GBP402/12/G097 Institutional support: RVO:67985556 Keywords : copula quantile regression * realized volatility * value-at-risk Subject RIV: AH - Economic s OBOR OECD: Applied Economic s, Econometrics Impact factor: 0.649, year: 2016 http://library.utia.cas.cz/separaty/2017/E/avdulaj-0472346.pdf

  14. Use of multiple linear regression and logistic regression models to investigate changes in birthweight for term singleton infants in Scotland.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bonellie, Sandra R

    2012-10-01

    To illustrate the use of regression and logistic regression models to investigate changes over time in size of babies particularly in relation to social deprivation, age of the mother and smoking. Mean birthweight has been found to be increasing in many countries in recent years, but there are still a group of babies who are born with low birthweights. Population-based retrospective cohort study. Multiple linear regression and logistic regression models are used to analyse data on term 'singleton births' from Scottish hospitals between 1994-2003. Mothers who smoke are shown to give birth to lighter babies on average, a difference of approximately 0.57 Standard deviations lower (95% confidence interval. 0.55-0.58) when adjusted for sex and parity. These mothers are also more likely to have babies that are low birthweight (odds ratio 3.46, 95% confidence interval 3.30-3.63) compared with non-smokers. Low birthweight is 30% more likely where the mother lives in the most deprived areas compared with the least deprived, (odds ratio 1.30, 95% confidence interval 1.21-1.40). Smoking during pregnancy is shown to have a detrimental effect on the size of infants at birth. This effect explains some, though not all, of the observed socioeconomic birthweight. It also explains much of the observed birthweight differences by the age of the mother.   Identifying mothers at greater risk of having a low birthweight baby as important implications for the care and advice this group receives. © 2012 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

  15. Nonparametric estimation of transition probabilities in the non-Markov illness-death model: A comparative study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Uña-Álvarez, Jacobo; Meira-Machado, Luís

    2015-06-01

    Multi-state models are often used for modeling complex event history data. In these models the estimation of the transition probabilities is of particular interest, since they allow for long-term predictions of the process. These quantities have been traditionally estimated by the Aalen-Johansen estimator, which is consistent if the process is Markov. Several non-Markov estimators have been proposed in the recent literature, and their superiority with respect to the Aalen-Johansen estimator has been proved in situations in which the Markov condition is strongly violated. However, the existing estimators have the drawback of requiring that the support of the censoring distribution contains the support of the lifetime distribution, which is not often the case. In this article, we propose two new methods for estimating the transition probabilities in the progressive illness-death model. Some asymptotic results are derived. The proposed estimators are consistent regardless the Markov condition and the referred assumption about the censoring support. We explore the finite sample behavior of the estimators through simulations. The main conclusion of this piece of research is that the proposed estimators are much more efficient than the existing non-Markov estimators in most cases. An application to a clinical trial on colon cancer is included. Extensions to progressive processes beyond the three-state illness-death model are discussed. © 2015, The International Biometric Society.

  16. Non-parametric identification of multivariable systems : a local rational modeling approach with application to a vibration isolation benchmark

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Voorhoeve, R.J.; van der Maas, A.; Oomen, T.A.J.

    2018-01-01

    Frequency response function (FRF) identification is often used as a basis for control systems design and as a starting point for subsequent parametric system identification. The aim of this paper is to develop a multiple-input multiple-output (MIMO) local parametric modeling approach for FRF

  17. Beta Regression Finite Mixture Models of Polarization and Priming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smithson, Michael; Merkle, Edgar C.; Verkuilen, Jay

    2011-01-01

    This paper describes the application of finite-mixture general linear models based on the beta distribution to modeling response styles, polarization, anchoring, and priming effects in probability judgments. These models, in turn, enhance our capacity for explicitly testing models and theories regarding the aforementioned phenomena. The mixture…

  18. Weak Disposability in Nonparametric Production Analysis with Undesirable Outputs

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kuosmanen, T.K.

    2005-01-01

    Environmental Economics and Natural Resources Group at Wageningen University in The Netherlands Weak disposability of outputs means that firms can abate harmful emissions by decreasing the activity level. Modeling weak disposability in nonparametric production analysis has caused some confusion.

  19. Robustifying Bayesian nonparametric mixtures for count data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Canale, Antonio; Prünster, Igor

    2017-03-01

    Our motivating application stems from surveys of natural populations and is characterized by large spatial heterogeneity in the counts, which makes parametric approaches to modeling local animal abundance too restrictive. We adopt a Bayesian nonparametric approach based on mixture models and innovate with respect to popular Dirichlet process mixture of Poisson kernels by increasing the model flexibility at the level both of the kernel and the nonparametric mixing measure. This allows to derive accurate and robust estimates of the distribution of local animal abundance and of the corresponding clusters. The application and a simulation study for different scenarios yield also some general methodological implications. Adding flexibility solely at the level of the mixing measure does not improve inferences, since its impact is severely limited by the rigidity of the Poisson kernel with considerable consequences in terms of bias. However, once a kernel more flexible than the Poisson is chosen, inferences can be robustified by choosing a prior more general than the Dirichlet process. Therefore, to improve the performance of Bayesian nonparametric mixtures for count data one has to enrich the model simultaneously at both levels, the kernel and the mixing measure. © 2016, The International Biometric Society.

  20. A generalized exponential time series regression model for electricity prices

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Haldrup, Niels; Knapik, Oskar; Proietti, Tomasso

    on the estimated model, the best linear predictor is constructed. Our modeling approach provides good fit within sample and outperforms competing benchmark predictors in terms of forecasting accuracy. We also find that building separate models for each hour of the day and averaging the forecasts is a better...

  1. Nonparametric estimation of benchmark doses in environmental risk assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Piegorsch, Walter W.; Xiong, Hui; Bhattacharya, Rabi N.; Lin, Lizhen

    2013-01-01

    Summary An important statistical objective in environmental risk analysis is estimation of minimum exposure levels, called benchmark doses (BMDs), that induce a pre-specified benchmark response in a dose-response experiment. In such settings, representations of the risk are traditionally based on a parametric dose-response model. It is a well-known concern, however, that if the chosen parametric form is misspecified, inaccurate and possibly unsafe low-dose inferences can result. We apply a nonparametric approach for calculating benchmark doses, based on an isotonic regression method for dose-response estimation with quantal-response data (Bhattacharya and Kong, 2007). We determine the large-sample properties of the estimator, develop bootstrap-based confidence limits on the BMDs, and explore the confidence limits’ small-sample properties via a short simulation study. An example from cancer risk assessment illustrates the calculations. PMID:23914133

  2. Forecast Model of Urban Stagnant Water Based on Logistic Regression

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Liu Pan

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available With the development of information technology, the construction of water resource system has been gradually carried out. In the background of big data, the work of water information needs to carry out the process of quantitative to qualitative change. Analyzing the correlation of data and exploring the deep value of data which are the key of water information’s research. On the basis of the research on the water big data and the traditional data warehouse architecture, we try to find out the connection of different data source. According to the temporal and spatial correlation of stagnant water and rainfall, we use spatial interpolation to integrate data of stagnant water and rainfall which are from different data source and different sensors, then use logistic regression to find out the relationship between them.

  3. Parental Vaccine Acceptance: A Logistic Regression Model Using Previsit Decisions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Sara; Riley-Behringer, Maureen; Rose, Jeanmarie C; Meropol, Sharon B; Lazebnik, Rina

    2017-07-01

    This study explores how parents' intentions regarding vaccination prior to their children's visit were associated with actual vaccine acceptance. A convenience sample of parents accompanying 6-week-old to 17-year-old children completed a written survey at 2 pediatric practices. Using hierarchical logistic regression, for hospital-based participants (n = 216), vaccine refusal history ( P < .01) and vaccine decision made before the visit ( P < .05) explained 87% of vaccine refusals. In community-based participants (n = 100), vaccine refusal history ( P < .01) explained 81% of refusals. Over 1 in 5 parents changed their minds about vaccination during the visit. Thirty parents who were previous vaccine refusers accepted current vaccines, and 37 who had intended not to vaccinate choose vaccination. Twenty-nine parents without a refusal history declined vaccines, and 32 who did not intend to refuse before the visit declined vaccination. Future research should identify key factors to nudge parent decision making in favor of vaccination.

  4. Improving sub-pixel imperviousness change prediction by ensembling heterogeneous non-linear regression models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Drzewiecki Wojciech

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available In this work nine non-linear regression models were compared for sub-pixel impervious surface area mapping from Landsat images. The comparison was done in three study areas both for accuracy of imperviousness coverage evaluation in individual points in time and accuracy of imperviousness change assessment. The performance of individual machine learning algorithms (Cubist, Random Forest, stochastic gradient boosting of regression trees, k-nearest neighbors regression, random k-nearest neighbors regression, Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines, averaged neural networks, and support vector machines with polynomial and radial kernels was also compared with the performance of heterogeneous model ensembles constructed from the best models trained using particular techniques.

  5. SPECIES-SPECIFIC FOREST VARIABLE ESTIMATION USING NON-PARAMETRIC MODELING OF MULTI-SPECTRAL PHOTOGRAMMETRIC POINT CLOUD DATA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Bohlin

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available The recent development in software for automatic photogrammetric processing of multispectral aerial imagery, and the growing nation-wide availability of Digital Elevation Model (DEM data, are about to revolutionize data capture for forest management planning in Scandinavia. Using only already available aerial imagery and ALS-assessed DEM data, raster estimates of the forest variables mean tree height, basal area, total stem volume, and species-specific stem volumes were produced and evaluated. The study was conducted at a coniferous hemi-boreal test site in southern Sweden (lat. 58° N, long. 13° E. Digital aerial images from the Zeiss/Intergraph Digital Mapping Camera system were used to produce 3D point-cloud data with spectral information. Metrics were calculated for 696 field plots (10 m radius from point-cloud data and used in k-MSN to estimate forest variables. For these stands, the tree height ranged from 1.4 to 33.0 m (18.1 m mean, stem volume from 0 to 829 m3 ha-1 (249 m3 ha-1 mean and basal area from 0 to 62.2 m2 ha-1 (26.1 m2 ha-1 mean, with mean stand size of 2.8 ha. Estimates made using digital aerial images corresponding to the standard acquisition of the Swedish National Land Survey (Lantmäteriet showed RMSEs (in percent of the surveyed stand mean of 7.5% for tree height, 11.4% for basal area, 13.2% for total stem volume, 90.6% for pine stem volume, 26.4 for spruce stem volume, and 72.6% for deciduous stem volume. The results imply that photogrammetric matching of digital aerial images has significant potential for operational use in forestry.

  6. Additive Intensity Regression Models in Corporate Default Analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lando, David; Medhat, Mamdouh; Nielsen, Mads Stenbo

    2013-01-01

    We consider additive intensity (Aalen) models as an alternative to the multiplicative intensity (Cox) models for analyzing the default risk of a sample of rated, nonfinancial U.S. firms. The setting allows for estimating and testing the significance of time-varying effects. We use a variety of mo...

  7. Misspecified poisson regression models for large-scale registry data

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Grøn, Randi; Gerds, Thomas A.; Andersen, Per K.

    2016-01-01

    working models that are then likely misspecified. To support and improve conclusions drawn from such models, we discuss methods for sensitivity analysis, for estimation of average exposure effects using aggregated data, and a semi-parametric bootstrap method to obtain robust standard errors. The methods...

  8. Logistic regression model for detecting radon prone areas in Ireland.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Elío, J; Crowley, Q; Scanlon, R; Hodgson, J; Long, S

    2017-12-01

    A new high spatial resolution radon risk map of Ireland has been developed, based on a combination of indoor radon measurements (n=31,910) and relevant geological information (i.e. Bedrock Geology, Quaternary Geology, soil permeability and aquifer type). Logistic regression was used to predict the probability of having an indoor radon concentration above the national reference level of 200Bqm -3 in Ireland. The four geological datasets evaluated were found to be statistically significant, and, based on combinations of these four variables, the predicted probabilities ranged from 0.57% to 75.5%. Results show that the Republic of Ireland may be divided in three main radon risk categories: High (HR), Medium (MR) and Low (LR). The probability of having an indoor radon concentration above 200Bqm -3 in each area was found to be 19%, 8% and 3%; respectively. In the Republic of Ireland, the population affected by radon concentrations above 200Bqm -3 is estimated at ca. 460k (about 10% of the total population). Of these, 57% (265k), 35% (160k) and 8% (35k) are in High, Medium and Low Risk Areas, respectively. Our results provide a high spatial resolution utility which permit customised radon-awareness information to be targeted at specific geographic areas. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  9. Predicting recycling behaviour: Comparison of a linear regression model and a fuzzy logic model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vesely, Stepan; Klöckner, Christian A; Dohnal, Mirko

    2016-03-01

    In this paper we demonstrate that fuzzy logic can provide a better tool for predicting recycling behaviour than the customarily used linear regression. To show this, we take a set of empirical data on recycling behaviour (N=664), which we randomly divide into two halves. The first half is used to estimate a linear regression model of recycling behaviour, and to develop a fuzzy logic model of recycling behaviour. As the first comparison, the fit of both models to the data included in estimation of the models (N=332) is evaluated. As the second comparison, predictive accuracy of both models for "new" cases (hold-out data not included in building the models, N=332) is assessed. In both cases, the fuzzy logic model significantly outperforms the regression model in terms of fit. To conclude, when accurate predictions of recycling and possibly other environmental behaviours are needed, fuzzy logic modelling seems to be a promising technique. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  10. Decision support using nonparametric statistics

    CERN Document Server

    Beatty, Warren

    2018-01-01

    This concise volume covers nonparametric statistics topics that most are most likely to be seen and used from a practical decision support perspective. While many degree programs require a course in parametric statistics, these methods are often inadequate for real-world decision making in business environments. Much of the data collected today by business executives (for example, customer satisfaction opinions) requires nonparametric statistics for valid analysis, and this book provides the reader with a set of tools that can be used to validly analyze all data, regardless of type. Through numerous examples and exercises, this book explains why nonparametric statistics will lead to better decisions and how they are used to reach a decision, with a wide array of business applications. Online resources include exercise data, spreadsheets, and solutions.

  11. Logistic Regression Modeling of Diminishing Manufacturing Sources for Integrated Circuits

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Gravier, Michael

    1999-01-01

    .... This thesis draws on available data from the electronics integrated circuit industry to attempt to assess whether statistical modeling offers a viable method for predicting the presence of DMSMS...

  12. Adaptive nonparametric Bayesian inference using location-scale mixture priors

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jonge, de R.; Zanten, van J.H.

    2010-01-01

    We study location-scale mixture priors for nonparametric statistical problems, including multivariate regression, density estimation and classification. We show that a rate-adaptive procedure can be obtained if the prior is properly constructed. In particular, we show that adaptation is achieved if

  13. Data to support "Boosted Regression Tree Models to Explain Watershed Nutrient Concentrations & Biological Condition"

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — Spreadsheets are included here to support the manuscript "Boosted Regression Tree Models to Explain Watershed Nutrient Concentrations and Biological Condition". This...

  14. Martingale Regressions for a Continuous Time Model of Exchange Rates

    OpenAIRE

    Guo, Zi-Yi

    2017-01-01

    One of the daunting problems in international finance is the weak explanatory power of existing theories of the nominal exchange rates, the so-called “foreign exchange rate determination puzzle”. We propose a continuous-time model to study the impact of order flow on foreign exchange rates. The model is estimated by a newly developed econometric tool based on a time-change sampling from calendar to volatility time. The estimation results indicate that the effect of order flow on exchange rate...

  15. Focused information criterion and model averaging based on weighted composite quantile regression

    KAUST Repository

    Xu, Ganggang; Wang, Suojin; Huang, Jianhua Z.

    2013-01-01

    We study the focused information criterion and frequentist model averaging and their application to post-model-selection inference for weighted composite quantile regression (WCQR) in the context of the additive partial linear models. With the non

  16. Cox's regression model for dynamics of grouped unemployment data

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Volf, Petr

    2003-01-01

    Roč. 10, č. 19 (2003), s. 151-162 ISSN 1212-074X R&D Projects: GA ČR GA402/01/0539 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z1075907 Keywords : mathematical statistics * survival analysis * Cox's model Subject RIV: BB - Applied Statistics, Operational Research

  17. Multiple Linear Regression Model for Estimating the Price of a ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Ghana Mining Journal ... In the modeling, the Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) normality assumption which could introduce errors in the statistical analyses was dealt with by log transformation of the data, ensuring the data is normally ... The resultant MLRM is: Ŷi MLRM = (X'X)-1X'Y(xi') where X is the sample data matrix.

  18. Inflation, Forecast Intervals and Long Memory Regression Models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    C.S. Bos (Charles); Ph.H.B.F. Franses (Philip Hans); M. Ooms (Marius)

    2001-01-01

    textabstractWe examine recursive out-of-sample forecasting of monthly postwar U.S. core inflation and log price levels. We use the autoregressive fractionally integrated moving average model with explanatory variables (ARFIMAX). Our analysis suggests a significant explanatory power of leading

  19. Inflation, Forecast Intervals and Long Memory Regression Models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ooms, M.; Bos, C.S.; Franses, P.H.

    2003-01-01

    We examine recursive out-of-sample forecasting of monthly postwar US core inflation and log price levels. We use the autoregressive fractionally integrated moving average model with explanatory variables (ARFIMAX). Our analysis suggests a significant explanatory power of leading indicators

  20. Data-driven modelling of LTI systems using symbolic regression

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Khandelwal, D.; Toth, R.; Van den Hof, P.M.J.

    2017-01-01

    The aim of this project is to automate the task of data-driven identification of dynamical systems. The underlying goal is to develop an identification tool that models a physical system without distinguishing between classes of systems such as linear, nonlinear or possibly even hybrid systems. Such

  1. Smooth semi-nonparametric (SNP) estimation of the cumulative incidence function.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Duc, Anh Nguyen; Wolbers, Marcel

    2017-08-15

    This paper presents a novel approach to estimation of the cumulative incidence function in the presence of competing risks. The underlying statistical model is specified via a mixture factorization of the joint distribution of the event type and the time to the event. The time to event distributions conditional on the event type are modeled using smooth semi-nonparametric densities. One strength of this approach is that it can handle arbitrary censoring and truncation while relying on mild parametric assumptions. A stepwise forward algorithm for model estimation and adaptive selection of smooth semi-nonparametric polynomial degrees is presented, implemented in the statistical software R, evaluated in a sequence of simulation studies, and applied to data from a clinical trial in cryptococcal meningitis. The simulations demonstrate that the proposed method frequently outperforms both parametric and nonparametric alternatives. They also support the use of 'ad hoc' asymptotic inference to derive confidence intervals. An extension to regression modeling is also presented, and its potential and challenges are discussed. © 2017 The Authors. Statistics in Medicine Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd. © 2017 The Authors. Statistics in Medicine Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  2. Prediction of Thermal Properties of Sweet Sorghum Bagasse as a Function of Moisture Content Using Artificial Neural Networks and Regression Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gosukonda Ramana

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Artificial neural networks (ANN and traditional regression models were developed for prediction of thermal properties of sweet sorghum bagasse as a function of moisture content and room temperature. Predictions were made for three thermal properties: 1 thermal conductivity, 2 volumetric specific heat, and 3 thermal diffusivity. Each thermal property had five levels of moisture content (8.52%, 12.93%, 18.94%, 24.63%, and 28.62%, w. b. and room temperature as inputs. Data were sub-partitioned for training, testing, and validation of models. Backpropagation (BP and Kalman Filter (KF learning algorithms were employed to develop nonparametric models between input and output data sets. Statistical indices including correlation coefficient (R between actual and predicted outputs were produced for selecting the suitable models. Prediction plots for thermal properties indicated that the ANN models had better accuracy from unseen patterns as compared to regression models. In general, ANN models were able to strongly generalize and interpolate unseen patterns within the domain of training.

  3. Shaofu Zhuyu Decoction Regresses Endometriotic Lesions in a Rat Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Guanghui Zhu

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available The current therapies for endometriosis are restricted by various side effects and treatment outcome has been less than satisfactory. Shaofu Zhuyu Decoction (SZD, a classic traditional Chinese medicinal (TCM prescription for dysmenorrhea, has been widely used in clinical practice by TCM doctors to relieve symptoms of endometriosis. The present study aimed to investigate the effects of SZD on a rat model of endometriosis. Forty-eight female Sprague-Dawley rats with regular estrous cycles went through autotransplantation operation to establish endometriosis model. Then 38 rats with successful ectopic implants were randomized into two groups: vehicle- and SZD-treated groups. The latter were administered SZD through oral gavage for 4 weeks. By the end of the treatment period, the volume of the endometriotic lesions was measured, the histopathological properties of the ectopic endometrium were evaluated, and levels of proliferating cell nuclear antigen (PCNA, CD34, and hypoxia inducible factor- (HIF- 1α in the ectopic endometrium were detected with immunohistochemistry. Furthermore, apoptosis was assessed using the terminal deoxynucleotidyl transferase (TdT deoxyuridine 5′-triphosphate (dUTP nick-end labeling (TUNEL assay. In this study, SZD significantly reduced the size of ectopic lesions in rats with endometriosis, inhibited cell proliferation, increased cell apoptosis, and reduced microvessel density and HIF-1α expression. It suggested that SZD could be an effective therapy for the treatment and prevention of endometriosis recurrence.

  4. [Application of detecting and taking overdispersion into account in Poisson regression model].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bouche, G; Lepage, B; Migeot, V; Ingrand, P

    2009-08-01

    Researchers often use the Poisson regression model to analyze count data. Overdispersion can occur when a Poisson regression model is used, resulting in an underestimation of variance of the regression model parameters. Our objective was to take overdispersion into account and assess its impact with an illustration based on the data of a study investigating the relationship between use of the Internet to seek health information and number of primary care consultations. Three methods, overdispersed Poisson, a robust estimator, and negative binomial regression, were performed to take overdispersion into account in explaining variation in the number (Y) of primary care consultations. We tested overdispersion in the Poisson regression model using the ratio of the sum of Pearson residuals over the number of degrees of freedom (chi(2)/df). We then fitted the three models and compared parameter estimation to the estimations given by Poisson regression model. Variance of the number of primary care consultations (Var[Y]=21.03) was greater than the mean (E[Y]=5.93) and the chi(2)/df ratio was 3.26, which confirmed overdispersion. Standard errors of the parameters varied greatly between the Poisson regression model and the three other regression models. Interpretation of estimates from two variables (using the Internet to seek health information and single parent family) would have changed according to the model retained, with significant levels of 0.06 and 0.002 (Poisson), 0.29 and 0.09 (overdispersed Poisson), 0.29 and 0.13 (use of a robust estimator) and 0.45 and 0.13 (negative binomial) respectively. Different methods exist to solve the problem of underestimating variance in the Poisson regression model when overdispersion is present. The negative binomial regression model seems to be particularly accurate because of its theorical distribution ; in addition this regression is easy to perform with ordinary statistical software packages.

  5. Linking Simple Economic Theory Models and the Cointegrated Vector AutoRegressive Model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Møller, Niels Framroze

    This paper attempts to clarify the connection between simple economic theory models and the approach of the Cointegrated Vector-Auto-Regressive model (CVAR). By considering (stylized) examples of simple static equilibrium models, it is illustrated in detail, how the theoretical model and its stru....... Further fundamental extensions and advances to more sophisticated theory models, such as those related to dynamics and expectations (in the structural relations) are left for future papers......This paper attempts to clarify the connection between simple economic theory models and the approach of the Cointegrated Vector-Auto-Regressive model (CVAR). By considering (stylized) examples of simple static equilibrium models, it is illustrated in detail, how the theoretical model and its......, it is demonstrated how other controversial hypotheses such as Rational Expectations can be formulated directly as restrictions on the CVAR-parameters. A simple example of a "Neoclassical synthetic" AS-AD model is also formulated. Finally, the partial- general equilibrium distinction is related to the CVAR as well...

  6. Using the classical linear regression model in analysis of the dependences of conveyor belt life

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Miriam Andrejiová

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available The paper deals with the classical linear regression model of the dependence of conveyor belt life on some selected parameters: thickness of paint layer, width and length of the belt, conveyor speed and quantity of transported material. The first part of the article is about regression model design, point and interval estimation of parameters, verification of statistical significance of the model, and about the parameters of the proposed regression model. The second part of the article deals with identification of influential and extreme values that can have an impact on estimation of regression model parameters. The third part focuses on assumptions of the classical regression model, i.e. on verification of independence assumptions, normality and homoscedasticity of residuals.

  7. Two levels ARIMAX and regression models for forecasting time series data with calendar variation effects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Suhartono, Lee, Muhammad Hisyam; Prastyo, Dedy Dwi

    2015-12-01

    The aim of this research is to develop a calendar variation model for forecasting retail sales data with the Eid ul-Fitr effect. The proposed model is based on two methods, namely two levels ARIMAX and regression methods. Two levels ARIMAX and regression models are built by using ARIMAX for the first level and regression for the second level. Monthly men's jeans and women's trousers sales in a retail company for the period January 2002 to September 2009 are used as case study. In general, two levels of calendar variation model yields two models, namely the first model to reconstruct the sales pattern that already occurred, and the second model to forecast the effect of increasing sales due to Eid ul-Fitr that affected sales at the same and the previous months. The results show that the proposed two level calendar variation model based on ARIMAX and regression methods yields better forecast compared to the seasonal ARIMA model and Neural Networks.

  8. Model-based estimation of finite population total in stratified sampling

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The work presented in this paper concerns the estimation of finite population total under model – based framework. Nonparametric regression approach as a method of estimating finite population total is explored. The asymptotic properties of the estimators based on nonparametric regression are also developed under ...

  9. Nonparametric Regression with Subfractional Brownian Motion via Malliavin Calculus

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yuquan Cang

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available We study the asymptotic behavior of the sequence Sn=∑i=0n-1K(nαSiH1(Si+1H2-SiH2, as n tends to infinity, where SH1 and SH2 are two independent subfractional Brownian motions with indices H1 and H2, respectively. K is a kernel function and the bandwidth parameter α satisfies some hypotheses in terms of H1 and H2. Its limiting distribution is a mixed normal law involving the local time of the sub-fractional Brownian motion SH1. We mainly use the techniques of Malliavin calculus with respect to sub-fractional Brownian motion.

  10. Predicting Antitumor Activity of Peptides by Consensus of Regression Models Trained on a Small Data Sample

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ivanka Jerić

    2011-11-01

    Full Text Available Predicting antitumor activity of compounds using regression models trained on a small number of compounds with measured biological activity is an ill-posed inverse problem. Yet, it occurs very often within the academic community. To counteract, up to some extent, overfitting problems caused by a small training data, we propose to use consensus of six regression models for prediction of biological activity of virtual library of compounds. The QSAR descriptors of 22 compounds related to the opioid growth factor (OGF, Tyr-Gly-Gly-Phe-Met with known antitumor activity were used to train regression models: the feed-forward artificial neural network, the k-nearest neighbor, sparseness constrained linear regression, the linear and nonlinear (with polynomial and Gaussian kernel support vector machine. Regression models were applied on a virtual library of 429 compounds that resulted in six lists with candidate compounds ranked by predicted antitumor activity. The highly ranked candidate compounds were synthesized, characterized and tested for an antiproliferative activity. Some of prepared peptides showed more pronounced activity compared with the native OGF; however, they were less active than highly ranked compounds selected previously by the radial basis function support vector machine (RBF SVM regression model. The ill-posedness of the related inverse problem causes unstable behavior of trained regression models on test data. These results point to high complexity of prediction based on the regression models trained on a small data sample.

  11. A generalized right truncated bivariate Poisson regression model with applications to health data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Islam, M Ataharul; Chowdhury, Rafiqul I

    2017-01-01

    A generalized right truncated bivariate Poisson regression model is proposed in this paper. Estimation and tests for goodness of fit and over or under dispersion are illustrated for both untruncated and right truncated bivariate Poisson regression models using marginal-conditional approach. Estimation and test procedures are illustrated for bivariate Poisson regression models with applications to Health and Retirement Study data on number of health conditions and the number of health care services utilized. The proposed test statistics are easy to compute and it is evident from the results that the models fit the data very well. A comparison between the right truncated and untruncated bivariate Poisson regression models using the test for nonnested models clearly shows that the truncated model performs significantly better than the untruncated model.

  12. Stochastic semi-nonparametric frontier estimation of electricity distribution networks: Application of the StoNED method in the Finnish regulatory model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kuosmanen, Timo

    2012-01-01

    Electricity distribution network is a prime example of a natural local monopoly. In many countries, electricity distribution is regulated by the government. Many regulators apply frontier estimation techniques such as data envelopment analysis (DEA) or stochastic frontier analysis (SFA) as an integral part of their regulatory framework. While more advanced methods that combine nonparametric frontier with stochastic error term are known in the literature, in practice, regulators continue to apply simplistic methods. This paper reports the main results of the project commissioned by the Finnish regulator for further development of the cost frontier estimation in their regulatory framework. The key objectives of the project were to integrate a stochastic SFA-style noise term to the nonparametric, axiomatic DEA-style cost frontier, and to take the heterogeneity of firms and their operating environments better into account. To achieve these objectives, a new method called stochastic nonparametric envelopment of data (StoNED) was examined. Based on the insights and experiences gained in the empirical analysis using the real data of the regulated networks, the Finnish regulator adopted the StoNED method in use from 2012 onwards.

  13. Nonparametric factor analysis of time series

    OpenAIRE

    Rodríguez-Poo, Juan M.; Linton, Oliver Bruce

    1998-01-01

    We introduce a nonparametric smoothing procedure for nonparametric factor analaysis of multivariate time series. The asymptotic properties of the proposed procedures are derived. We present an application based on the residuals from the Fair macromodel.

  14. Bayesian Nonparametric Clustering for Positive Definite Matrices.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cherian, Anoop; Morellas, Vassilios; Papanikolopoulos, Nikolaos

    2016-05-01

    Symmetric Positive Definite (SPD) matrices emerge as data descriptors in several applications of computer vision such as object tracking, texture recognition, and diffusion tensor imaging. Clustering these data matrices forms an integral part of these applications, for which soft-clustering algorithms (K-Means, expectation maximization, etc.) are generally used. As is well-known, these algorithms need the number of clusters to be specified, which is difficult when the dataset scales. To address this issue, we resort to the classical nonparametric Bayesian framework by modeling the data as a mixture model using the Dirichlet process (DP) prior. Since these matrices do not conform to the Euclidean geometry, rather belongs to a curved Riemannian manifold,existing DP models cannot be directly applied. Thus, in this paper, we propose a novel DP mixture model framework for SPD matrices. Using the log-determinant divergence as the underlying dissimilarity measure to compare these matrices, and further using the connection between this measure and the Wishart distribution, we derive a novel DPM model based on the Wishart-Inverse-Wishart conjugate pair. We apply this model to several applications in computer vision. Our experiments demonstrate that our model is scalable to the dataset size and at the same time achieves superior accuracy compared to several state-of-the-art parametric and nonparametric clustering algorithms.

  15. Comparing Methodologies for Developing an Early Warning System: Classification and Regression Tree Model versus Logistic Regression. REL 2015-077

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koon, Sharon; Petscher, Yaacov

    2015-01-01

    The purpose of this report was to explicate the use of logistic regression and classification and regression tree (CART) analysis in the development of early warning systems. It was motivated by state education leaders' interest in maintaining high classification accuracy while simultaneously improving practitioner understanding of the rules by…

  16. Analysis of dental caries using generalized linear and count regression models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Javali M. Phil

    2013-11-01

    Full Text Available Generalized linear models (GLM are generalization of linear regression models, which allow fitting regression models to response data in all the sciences especially medical and dental sciences that follow a general exponential family. These are flexible and widely used class of such models that can accommodate response variables. Count data are frequently characterized by overdispersion and excess zeros. Zero-inflated count models provide a parsimonious yet powerful way to model this type of situation. Such models assume that the data are a mixture of two separate data generation processes: one generates only zeros, and the other is either a Poisson or a negative binomial data-generating process. Zero inflated count regression models such as the zero-inflated Poisson (ZIP, zero-inflated negative binomial (ZINB regression models have been used to handle dental caries count data with many zeros. We present an evaluation framework to the suitability of applying the GLM, Poisson, NB, ZIP and ZINB to dental caries data set where the count data may exhibit evidence of many zeros and over-dispersion. Estimation of the model parameters using the method of maximum likelihood is provided. Based on the Vuong test statistic and the goodness of fit measure for dental caries data, the NB and ZINB regression models perform better than other count regression models.

  17. Accounting for measurement error in log regression models with applications to accelerated testing.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Robert Richardson

    Full Text Available In regression settings, parameter estimates will be biased when the explanatory variables are measured with error. This bias can significantly affect modeling goals. In particular, accelerated lifetime testing involves an extrapolation of the fitted model, and a small amount of bias in parameter estimates may result in a significant increase in the bias of the extrapolated predictions. Additionally, bias may arise when the stochastic component of a log regression model is assumed to be multiplicative when the actual underlying stochastic component is additive. To account for these possible sources of bias, a log regression model with measurement error and additive error is approximated by a weighted regression model which can be estimated using Iteratively Re-weighted Least Squares. Using the reduced Eyring equation in an accelerated testing setting, the model is compared to previously accepted approaches to modeling accelerated testing data with both simulations and real data.

  18. Accounting for measurement error in log regression models with applications to accelerated testing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Richardson, Robert; Tolley, H Dennis; Evenson, William E; Lunt, Barry M

    2018-01-01

    In regression settings, parameter estimates will be biased when the explanatory variables are measured with error. This bias can significantly affect modeling goals. In particular, accelerated lifetime testing involves an extrapolation of the fitted model, and a small amount of bias in parameter estimates may result in a significant increase in the bias of the extrapolated predictions. Additionally, bias may arise when the stochastic component of a log regression model is assumed to be multiplicative when the actual underlying stochastic component is additive. To account for these possible sources of bias, a log regression model with measurement error and additive error is approximated by a weighted regression model which can be estimated using Iteratively Re-weighted Least Squares. Using the reduced Eyring equation in an accelerated testing setting, the model is compared to previously accepted approaches to modeling accelerated testing data with both simulations and real data.

  19. Generic global regression models for growth prediction of Salmonella in ground pork and pork cuts

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Buschhardt, Tasja; Hansen, Tina Beck; Bahl, Martin Iain

    2017-01-01

    Introduction and Objectives Models for the prediction of bacterial growth in fresh pork are primarily developed using two-step regression (i.e. primary models followed by secondary models). These models are also generally based on experiments in liquids or ground meat and neglect surface growth....... It has been shown that one-step global regressions can result in more accurate models and that bacterial growth on intact surfaces can substantially differ from growth in liquid culture. Material and Methods We used a global-regression approach to develop predictive models for the growth of Salmonella....... One part of obtained logtransformed cell counts was used for model development and another for model validation. The Ratkowsky square root model and the relative lag time (RLT) model were integrated into the logistic model with delay. Fitted parameter estimates were compared to investigate the effect...

  20. Predictive market segmentation model: An application of logistic regression model and CHAID procedure

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Soldić-Aleksić Jasna

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available Market segmentation presents one of the key concepts of the modern marketing. The main goal of market segmentation is focused on creating groups (segments of customers that have similar characteristics, needs, wishes and/or similar behavior regarding the purchase of concrete product/service. Companies can create specific marketing plan for each of these segments and therefore gain short or long term competitive advantage on the market. Depending on the concrete marketing goal, different segmentation schemes and techniques may be applied. This paper presents a predictive market segmentation model based on the application of logistic regression model and CHAID analysis. The logistic regression model was used for the purpose of variables selection (from the initial pool of eleven variables which are statistically significant for explaining the dependent variable. Selected variables were afterwards included in the CHAID procedure that generated the predictive market segmentation model. The model results are presented on the concrete empirical example in the following form: summary model results, CHAID tree, Gain chart, Index chart, risk and classification tables.

  1. Nonparametric Inference for Periodic Sequences

    KAUST Repository

    Sun, Ying

    2012-02-01

    This article proposes a nonparametric method for estimating the period and values of a periodic sequence when the data are evenly spaced in time. The period is estimated by a "leave-out-one-cycle" version of cross-validation (CV) and complements the periodogram, a widely used tool for period estimation. The CV method is computationally simple and implicitly penalizes multiples of the smallest period, leading to a "virtually" consistent estimator of integer periods. This estimator is investigated both theoretically and by simulation.We also propose a nonparametric test of the null hypothesis that the data have constantmean against the alternative that the sequence of means is periodic. Finally, our methodology is demonstrated on three well-known time series: the sunspots and lynx trapping data, and the El Niño series of sea surface temperatures. © 2012 American Statistical Association and the American Society for Quality.

  2. Linear Multivariable Regression Models for Prediction of Eddy Dissipation Rate from Available Meteorological Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    MCKissick, Burnell T. (Technical Monitor); Plassman, Gerald E.; Mall, Gerald H.; Quagliano, John R.

    2005-01-01

    Linear multivariable regression models for predicting day and night Eddy Dissipation Rate (EDR) from available meteorological data sources are defined and validated. Model definition is based on a combination of 1997-2000 Dallas/Fort Worth (DFW) data sources, EDR from Aircraft Vortex Spacing System (AVOSS) deployment data, and regression variables primarily from corresponding Automated Surface Observation System (ASOS) data. Model validation is accomplished through EDR predictions on a similar combination of 1994-1995 Memphis (MEM) AVOSS and ASOS data. Model forms include an intercept plus a single term of fixed optimal power for each of these regression variables; 30-minute forward averaged mean and variance of near-surface wind speed and temperature, variance of wind direction, and a discrete cloud cover metric. Distinct day and night models, regressing on EDR and the natural log of EDR respectively, yield best performance and avoid model discontinuity over day/night data boundaries.

  3. Robust geographically weighted regression of modeling the Air Polluter Standard Index (APSI)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Warsito, Budi; Yasin, Hasbi; Ispriyanti, Dwi; Hoyyi, Abdul

    2018-05-01

    The Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR) model has been widely applied to many practical fields for exploring spatial heterogenity of a regression model. However, this method is inherently not robust to outliers. Outliers commonly exist in data sets and may lead to a distorted estimate of the underlying regression model. One of solution to handle the outliers in the regression model is to use the robust models. So this model was called Robust Geographically Weighted Regression (RGWR). This research aims to aid the government in the policy making process related to air pollution mitigation by developing a standard index model for air polluter (Air Polluter Standard Index - APSI) based on the RGWR approach. In this research, we also consider seven variables that are directly related to the air pollution level, which are the traffic velocity, the population density, the business center aspect, the air humidity, the wind velocity, the air temperature, and the area size of the urban forest. The best model is determined by the smallest AIC value. There are significance differences between Regression and RGWR in this case, but Basic GWR using the Gaussian kernel is the best model to modeling APSI because it has smallest AIC.

  4. Parameter estimation and statistical test of geographically weighted bivariate Poisson inverse Gaussian regression models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Amalia, Junita; Purhadi, Otok, Bambang Widjanarko

    2017-11-01

    Poisson distribution is a discrete distribution with count data as the random variables and it has one parameter defines both mean and variance. Poisson regression assumes mean and variance should be same (equidispersion). Nonetheless, some case of the count data unsatisfied this assumption because variance exceeds mean (over-dispersion). The ignorance of over-dispersion causes underestimates in standard error. Furthermore, it causes incorrect decision in the statistical test. Previously, paired count data has a correlation and it has bivariate Poisson distribution. If there is over-dispersion, modeling paired count data is not sufficient with simple bivariate Poisson regression. Bivariate Poisson Inverse Gaussian Regression (BPIGR) model is mix Poisson regression for modeling paired count data within over-dispersion. BPIGR model produces a global model for all locations. In another hand, each location has different geographic conditions, social, cultural and economic so that Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR) is needed. The weighting function of each location in GWR generates a different local model. Geographically Weighted Bivariate Poisson Inverse Gaussian Regression (GWBPIGR) model is used to solve over-dispersion and to generate local models. Parameter estimation of GWBPIGR model obtained by Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE) method. Meanwhile, hypothesis testing of GWBPIGR model acquired by Maximum Likelihood Ratio Test (MLRT) method.

  5. Nonparametric predictive inference in reliability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Coolen, F.P.A.; Coolen-Schrijner, P.; Yan, K.J.

    2002-01-01

    We introduce a recently developed statistical approach, called nonparametric predictive inference (NPI), to reliability. Bounds for the survival function for a future observation are presented. We illustrate how NPI can deal with right-censored data, and discuss aspects of competing risks. We present possible applications of NPI for Bernoulli data, and we briefly outline applications of NPI for replacement decisions. The emphasis is on introduction and illustration of NPI in reliability contexts, detailed mathematical justifications are presented elsewhere

  6. Can We Use Regression Modeling to Quantify Mean Annual Streamflow at a Global-Scale?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barbarossa, V.; Huijbregts, M. A. J.; Hendriks, J. A.; Beusen, A.; Clavreul, J.; King, H.; Schipper, A.

    2016-12-01

    Quantifying mean annual flow of rivers (MAF) at ungauged sites is essential for a number of applications, including assessments of global water supply, ecosystem integrity and water footprints. MAF can be quantified with spatially explicit process-based models, which might be overly time-consuming and data-intensive for this purpose, or with empirical regression models that predict MAF based on climate and catchment characteristics. Yet, regression models have mostly been developed at a regional scale and the extent to which they can be extrapolated to other regions is not known. In this study, we developed a global-scale regression model for MAF using observations of discharge and catchment characteristics from 1,885 catchments worldwide, ranging from 2 to 106 km2 in size. In addition, we compared the performance of the regression model with the predictive ability of the spatially explicit global hydrological model PCR-GLOBWB [van Beek et al., 2011] by comparing results from both models to independent measurements. We obtained a regression model explaining 89% of the variance in MAF based on catchment area, mean annual precipitation and air temperature, average slope and elevation. The regression model performed better than PCR-GLOBWB for the prediction of MAF, as root-mean-square error values were lower (0.29 - 0.38 compared to 0.49 - 0.57) and the modified index of agreement was higher (0.80 - 0.83 compared to 0.72 - 0.75). Our regression model can be applied globally at any point of the river network, provided that the input parameters are within the range of values employed in the calibration of the model. The performance is reduced for water scarce regions and further research should focus on improving such an aspect for regression-based global hydrological models.

  7. Decompounding random sums: A nonparametric approach

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Martin Bøgsted; Pitts, Susan M.

    Observations from sums of random variables with a random number of summands, known as random, compound or stopped sums arise within many areas of engineering and science. Quite often it is desirable to infer properties of the distribution of the terms in the random sum. In the present paper we...... review a number of applications and consider the nonlinear inverse problem of inferring the cumulative distribution function of the components in the random sum. We review the existing literature on non-parametric approaches to the problem. The models amenable to the analysis are generalized considerably...

  8. ANALYSIS OF THE FINANCIAL PERFORMANCES OF THE FIRM, BY USING THE MULTIPLE REGRESSION MODEL

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Constantin Anghelache

    2011-11-01

    Full Text Available The information achieved through the use of simple linear regression are not always enough to characterize the evolution of an economic phenomenon and, furthermore, to identify its possible future evolution. To remedy these drawbacks, the special literature includes multiple regression models, in which the evolution of the dependant variable is defined depending on two or more factorial variables.

  9. Deriving Genomic Breeding Values for Residual Feed Intake from Covariance Functions of Random Regression Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Strathe, Anders B; Mark, Thomas; Nielsen, Bjarne

    2014-01-01

    Random regression models were used to estimate covariance functions between cumulated feed intake (CFI) and body weight (BW) in 8424 Danish Duroc pigs. Random regressions on second order Legendre polynomials of age were used to describe genetic and permanent environmental curves in BW and CFI...

  10. Modelling infant mortality rate in Central Java, Indonesia use generalized poisson regression method

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prahutama, Alan; Sudarno

    2018-05-01

    The infant mortality rate is the number of deaths under one year of age occurring among the live births in a given geographical area during a given year, per 1,000 live births occurring among the population of the given geographical area during the same year. This problem needs to be addressed because it is an important element of a country’s economic development. High infant mortality rate will disrupt the stability of a country as it relates to the sustainability of the population in the country. One of regression model that can be used to analyze the relationship between dependent variable Y in the form of discrete data and independent variable X is Poisson regression model. Recently The regression modeling used for data with dependent variable is discrete, among others, poisson regression, negative binomial regression and generalized poisson regression. In this research, generalized poisson regression modeling gives better AIC value than poisson regression. The most significant variable is the Number of health facilities (X1), while the variable that gives the most influence to infant mortality rate is the average breastfeeding (X9).

  11. The Application of Classical and Neural Regression Models for the Valuation of Residential Real Estate

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mach Łukasz

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available The research process aimed at building regression models, which helps to valuate residential real estate, is presented in the following article. Two widely used computational tools i.e. the classical multiple regression and regression models of artificial neural networks were used in order to build models. An attempt to define the utilitarian usefulness of the above-mentioned tools and comparative analysis of them is the aim of the conducted research. Data used for conducting analyses refers to the secondary transactional residential real estate market.

  12. Linear regression metamodeling as a tool to summarize and present simulation model results.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jalal, Hawre; Dowd, Bryan; Sainfort, François; Kuntz, Karen M

    2013-10-01

    Modelers lack a tool to systematically and clearly present complex model results, including those from sensitivity analyses. The objective was to propose linear regression metamodeling as a tool to increase transparency of decision analytic models and better communicate their results. We used a simplified cancer cure model to demonstrate our approach. The model computed the lifetime cost and benefit of 3 treatment options for cancer patients. We simulated 10,000 cohorts in a probabilistic sensitivity analysis (PSA) and regressed the model outcomes on the standardized input parameter values in a set of regression analyses. We used the regression coefficients to describe measures of sensitivity analyses, including threshold and parameter sensitivity analyses. We also compared the results of the PSA to deterministic full-factorial and one-factor-at-a-time designs. The regression intercept represented the estimated base-case outcome, and the other coefficients described the relative parameter uncertainty in the model. We defined simple relationships that compute the average and incremental net benefit of each intervention. Metamodeling produced outputs similar to traditional deterministic 1-way or 2-way sensitivity analyses but was more reliable since it used all parameter values. Linear regression metamodeling is a simple, yet powerful, tool that can assist modelers in communicating model characteristics and sensitivity analyses.

  13. [Evaluation of estimation of prevalence ratio using bayesian log-binomial regression model].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gao, W L; Lin, H; Liu, X N; Ren, X W; Li, J S; Shen, X P; Zhu, S L

    2017-03-10

    To evaluate the estimation of prevalence ratio ( PR ) by using bayesian log-binomial regression model and its application, we estimated the PR of medical care-seeking prevalence to caregivers' recognition of risk signs of diarrhea in their infants by using bayesian log-binomial regression model in Openbugs software. The results showed that caregivers' recognition of infant' s risk signs of diarrhea was associated significantly with a 13% increase of medical care-seeking. Meanwhile, we compared the differences in PR 's point estimation and its interval estimation of medical care-seeking prevalence to caregivers' recognition of risk signs of diarrhea and convergence of three models (model 1: not adjusting for the covariates; model 2: adjusting for duration of caregivers' education, model 3: adjusting for distance between village and township and child month-age based on model 2) between bayesian log-binomial regression model and conventional log-binomial regression model. The results showed that all three bayesian log-binomial regression models were convergence and the estimated PRs were 1.130(95 %CI : 1.005-1.265), 1.128(95 %CI : 1.001-1.264) and 1.132(95 %CI : 1.004-1.267), respectively. Conventional log-binomial regression model 1 and model 2 were convergence and their PRs were 1.130(95 % CI : 1.055-1.206) and 1.126(95 % CI : 1.051-1.203), respectively, but the model 3 was misconvergence, so COPY method was used to estimate PR , which was 1.125 (95 %CI : 1.051-1.200). In addition, the point estimation and interval estimation of PRs from three bayesian log-binomial regression models differed slightly from those of PRs from conventional log-binomial regression model, but they had a good consistency in estimating PR . Therefore, bayesian log-binomial regression model can effectively estimate PR with less misconvergence and have more advantages in application compared with conventional log-binomial regression model.

  14. A nonparametric spatial scan statistic for continuous data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jung, Inkyung; Cho, Ho Jin

    2015-10-20

    Spatial scan statistics are widely used for spatial cluster detection, and several parametric models exist. For continuous data, a normal-based scan statistic can be used. However, the performance of the model has not been fully evaluated for non-normal data. We propose a nonparametric spatial scan statistic based on the Wilcoxon rank-sum test statistic and compared the performance of the method with parametric models via a simulation study under various scenarios. The nonparametric method outperforms the normal-based scan statistic in terms of power and accuracy in almost all cases under consideration in the simulation study. The proposed nonparametric spatial scan statistic is therefore an excellent alternative to the normal model for continuous data and is especially useful for data following skewed or heavy-tailed distributions.

  15. Mixture regression models for the gap time distributions and illness-death processes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Chia-Hui

    2018-01-27

    The aim of this study is to provide an analysis of gap event times under the illness-death model, where some subjects experience "illness" before "death" and others experience only "death." Which event is more likely to occur first and how the duration of the "illness" influences the "death" event are of interest. Because the occurrence of the second event is subject to dependent censoring, it can lead to bias in the estimation of model parameters. In this work, we generalize the semiparametric mixture models for competing risks data to accommodate the subsequent event and use a copula function to model the dependent structure between the successive events. Under the proposed method, the survival function of the censoring time does not need to be estimated when developing the inference procedure. We incorporate the cause-specific hazard functions with the counting process approach and derive a consistent estimation using the nonparametric maximum likelihood method. Simulations are conducted to demonstrate the performance of the proposed analysis, and its application in a clinical study on chronic myeloid leukemia is reported to illustrate its utility.

  16. Modeling Tetanus Neonatorum case using the regression of negative binomial and zero-inflated negative binomial

    Science.gov (United States)

    Amaliana, Luthfatul; Sa'adah, Umu; Wayan Surya Wardhani, Ni

    2017-12-01

    Tetanus Neonatorum is an infectious disease that can be prevented by immunization. The number of Tetanus Neonatorum cases in East Java Province is the highest in Indonesia until 2015. Tetanus Neonatorum data contain over dispersion and big enough proportion of zero-inflation. Negative Binomial (NB) regression is an alternative method when over dispersion happens in Poisson regression. However, the data containing over dispersion and zero-inflation are more appropriately analyzed by using Zero-Inflated Negative Binomial (ZINB) regression. The purpose of this study are: (1) to model Tetanus Neonatorum cases in East Java Province with 71.05 percent proportion of zero-inflation by using NB and ZINB regression, (2) to obtain the best model. The result of this study indicates that ZINB is better than NB regression with smaller AIC.

  17. Poisson regression for modeling count and frequency outcomes in trauma research.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gagnon, David R; Doron-LaMarca, Susan; Bell, Margret; O'Farrell, Timothy J; Taft, Casey T

    2008-10-01

    The authors describe how the Poisson regression method for analyzing count or frequency outcome variables can be applied in trauma studies. The outcome of interest in trauma research may represent a count of the number of incidents of behavior occurring in a given time interval, such as acts of physical aggression or substance abuse. Traditional linear regression approaches assume a normally distributed outcome variable with equal variances over the range of predictor variables, and may not be optimal for modeling count outcomes. An application of Poisson regression is presented using data from a study of intimate partner aggression among male patients in an alcohol treatment program and their female partners. Results of Poisson regression and linear regression models are compared.

  18. A Technique of Fuzzy C-Mean in Multiple Linear Regression Model toward Paddy Yield

    Science.gov (United States)

    Syazwan Wahab, Nur; Saifullah Rusiman, Mohd; Mohamad, Mahathir; Amira Azmi, Nur; Che Him, Norziha; Ghazali Kamardan, M.; Ali, Maselan

    2018-04-01

    In this paper, we propose a hybrid model which is a combination of multiple linear regression model and fuzzy c-means method. This research involved a relationship between 20 variates of the top soil that are analyzed prior to planting of paddy yields at standard fertilizer rates. Data used were from the multi-location trials for rice carried out by MARDI at major paddy granary in Peninsular Malaysia during the period from 2009 to 2012. Missing observations were estimated using mean estimation techniques. The data were analyzed using multiple linear regression model and a combination of multiple linear regression model and fuzzy c-means method. Analysis of normality and multicollinearity indicate that the data is normally scattered without multicollinearity among independent variables. Analysis of fuzzy c-means cluster the yield of paddy into two clusters before the multiple linear regression model can be used. The comparison between two method indicate that the hybrid of multiple linear regression model and fuzzy c-means method outperform the multiple linear regression model with lower value of mean square error.

  19. Improving sub-pixel imperviousness change prediction by ensembling heterogeneous non-linear regression models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Drzewiecki, Wojciech

    2016-12-01

    In this work nine non-linear regression models were compared for sub-pixel impervious surface area mapping from Landsat images. The comparison was done in three study areas both for accuracy of imperviousness coverage evaluation in individual points in time and accuracy of imperviousness change assessment. The performance of individual machine learning algorithms (Cubist, Random Forest, stochastic gradient boosting of regression trees, k-nearest neighbors regression, random k-nearest neighbors regression, Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines, averaged neural networks, and support vector machines with polynomial and radial kernels) was also compared with the performance of heterogeneous model ensembles constructed from the best models trained using particular techniques. The results proved that in case of sub-pixel evaluation the most accurate prediction of change may not necessarily be based on the most accurate individual assessments. When single methods are considered, based on obtained results Cubist algorithm may be advised for Landsat based mapping of imperviousness for single dates. However, Random Forest may be endorsed when the most reliable evaluation of imperviousness change is the primary goal. It gave lower accuracies for individual assessments, but better prediction of change due to more correlated errors of individual predictions. Heterogeneous model ensembles performed for individual time points assessments at least as well as the best individual models. In case of imperviousness change assessment the ensembles always outperformed single model approaches. It means that it is possible to improve the accuracy of sub-pixel imperviousness change assessment using ensembles of heterogeneous non-linear regression models.

  20. SOME STATISTICAL ISSUES RELATED TO MULTIPLE LINEAR REGRESSION MODELING OF BEACH BACTERIA CONCENTRATIONS

    Science.gov (United States)

    As a fast and effective technique, the multiple linear regression (MLR) method has been widely used in modeling and prediction of beach bacteria concentrations. Among previous works on this subject, however, several issues were insufficiently or inconsistently addressed. Those is...

  1. Electricity demand loads modeling using AutoRegressive Moving Average (ARMA) models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pappas, S.S. [Department of Information and Communication Systems Engineering, University of the Aegean, Karlovassi, 83 200 Samos (Greece); Ekonomou, L.; Chatzarakis, G.E. [Department of Electrical Engineering Educators, ASPETE - School of Pedagogical and Technological Education, N. Heraklion, 141 21 Athens (Greece); Karamousantas, D.C. [Technological Educational Institute of Kalamata, Antikalamos, 24100 Kalamata (Greece); Katsikas, S.K. [Department of Technology Education and Digital Systems, University of Piraeus, 150 Androutsou Srt., 18 532 Piraeus (Greece); Liatsis, P. [Division of Electrical Electronic and Information Engineering, School of Engineering and Mathematical Sciences, Information and Biomedical Engineering Centre, City University, Northampton Square, London EC1V 0HB (United Kingdom)

    2008-09-15

    This study addresses the problem of modeling the electricity demand loads in Greece. The provided actual load data is deseasonilized and an AutoRegressive Moving Average (ARMA) model is fitted on the data off-line, using the Akaike Corrected Information Criterion (AICC). The developed model fits the data in a successful manner. Difficulties occur when the provided data includes noise or errors and also when an on-line/adaptive modeling is required. In both cases and under the assumption that the provided data can be represented by an ARMA model, simultaneous order and parameter estimation of ARMA models under the presence of noise are performed. The produced results indicate that the proposed method, which is based on the multi-model partitioning theory, tackles successfully the studied problem. For validation purposes the produced results are compared with three other established order selection criteria, namely AICC, Akaike's Information Criterion (AIC) and Schwarz's Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC). The developed model could be useful in the studies that concern electricity consumption and electricity prices forecasts. (author)

  2. An appraisal of convergence failures in the application of logistic regression model in published manuscripts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yusuf, O B; Bamgboye, E A; Afolabi, R F; Shodimu, M A

    2014-09-01

    Logistic regression model is widely used in health research for description and predictive purposes. Unfortunately, most researchers are sometimes not aware that the underlying principles of the techniques have failed when the algorithm for maximum likelihood does not converge. Young researchers particularly postgraduate students may not know why separation problem whether quasi or complete occurs, how to identify it and how to fix it. This study was designed to critically evaluate convergence issues in articles that employed logistic regression analysis published in an African Journal of Medicine and medical sciences between 2004 and 2013. Problems of quasi or complete separation were described and were illustrated with the National Demographic and Health Survey dataset. A critical evaluation of articles that employed logistic regression was conducted. A total of 581 articles was reviewed, of which 40 (6.9%) used binary logistic regression. Twenty-four (60.0%) stated the use of logistic regression model in the methodology while none of the articles assessed model fit. Only 3 (12.5%) properly described the procedures. Of the 40 that used the logistic regression model, the problem of convergence occurred in 6 (15.0%) of the articles. Logistic regression tends to be poorly reported in studies published between 2004 and 2013. Our findings showed that the procedure may not be well understood by researchers since very few described the process in their reports and may be totally unaware of the problem of convergence or how to deal with it.

  3. Developing and testing a global-scale regression model to quantify mean annual streamflow

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barbarossa, Valerio; Huijbregts, Mark A. J.; Hendriks, A. Jan; Beusen, Arthur H. W.; Clavreul, Julie; King, Henry; Schipper, Aafke M.

    2017-01-01

    Quantifying mean annual flow of rivers (MAF) at ungauged sites is essential for assessments of global water supply, ecosystem integrity and water footprints. MAF can be quantified with spatially explicit process-based models, which might be overly time-consuming and data-intensive for this purpose, or with empirical regression models that predict MAF based on climate and catchment characteristics. Yet, regression models have mostly been developed at a regional scale and the extent to which they can be extrapolated to other regions is not known. In this study, we developed a global-scale regression model for MAF based on a dataset unprecedented in size, using observations of discharge and catchment characteristics from 1885 catchments worldwide, measuring between 2 and 106 km2. In addition, we compared the performance of the regression model with the predictive ability of the spatially explicit global hydrological model PCR-GLOBWB by comparing results from both models to independent measurements. We obtained a regression model explaining 89% of the variance in MAF based on catchment area and catchment averaged mean annual precipitation and air temperature, slope and elevation. The regression model performed better than PCR-GLOBWB for the prediction of MAF, as root-mean-square error (RMSE) values were lower (0.29-0.38 compared to 0.49-0.57) and the modified index of agreement (d) was higher (0.80-0.83 compared to 0.72-0.75). Our regression model can be applied globally to estimate MAF at any point of the river network, thus providing a feasible alternative to spatially explicit process-based global hydrological models.

  4. Reflexion on linear regression trip production modelling method for ensuring good model quality

    Science.gov (United States)

    Suprayitno, Hitapriya; Ratnasari, Vita

    2017-11-01

    Transport Modelling is important. For certain cases, the conventional model still has to be used, in which having a good trip production model is capital. A good model can only be obtained from a good sample. Two of the basic principles of a good sampling is having a sample capable to represent the population characteristics and capable to produce an acceptable error at a certain confidence level. It seems that this principle is not yet quite understood and used in trip production modeling. Therefore, investigating the Trip Production Modelling practice in Indonesia and try to formulate a better modeling method for ensuring the Model Quality is necessary. This research result is presented as follows. Statistics knows a method to calculate span of prediction value at a certain confidence level for linear regression, which is called Confidence Interval of Predicted Value. The common modeling practice uses R2 as the principal quality measure, the sampling practice varies and not always conform to the sampling principles. An experiment indicates that small sample is already capable to give excellent R2 value and sample composition can significantly change the model. Hence, good R2 value, in fact, does not always mean good model quality. These lead to three basic ideas for ensuring good model quality, i.e. reformulating quality measure, calculation procedure, and sampling method. A quality measure is defined as having a good R2 value and a good Confidence Interval of Predicted Value. Calculation procedure must incorporate statistical calculation method and appropriate statistical tests needed. A good sampling method must incorporate random well distributed stratified sampling with a certain minimum number of samples. These three ideas need to be more developed and tested.

  5. Using the Logistic Regression model in supporting decisions of establishing marketing strategies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cristinel CONSTANTIN

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper is about an instrumental research regarding the using of Logistic Regression model for data analysis in marketing research. The decision makers inside different organisation need relevant information to support their decisions regarding the marketing strategies. The data provided by marketing research could be computed in various ways but the multivariate data analysis models can enhance the utility of the information. Among these models we can find the Logistic Regression model, which is used for dichotomous variables. Our research is based on explanation the utility of this model and interpretation of the resulted information in order to help practitioners and researchers to use it in their future investigations

  6. OPLS statistical model versus linear regression to assess sonographic predictors of stroke prognosis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vajargah, Kianoush Fathi; Sadeghi-Bazargani, Homayoun; Mehdizadeh-Esfanjani, Robab; Savadi-Oskouei, Daryoush; Farhoudi, Mehdi

    2012-01-01

    The objective of the present study was to assess the comparable applicability of orthogonal projections to latent structures (OPLS) statistical model vs traditional linear regression in order to investigate the role of trans cranial doppler (TCD) sonography in predicting ischemic stroke prognosis. The study was conducted on 116 ischemic stroke patients admitted to a specialty neurology ward. The Unified Neurological Stroke Scale was used once for clinical evaluation on the first week of admission and again six months later. All data was primarily analyzed using simple linear regression and later considered for multivariate analysis using PLS/OPLS models through the SIMCA P+12 statistical software package. The linear regression analysis results used for the identification of TCD predictors of stroke prognosis were confirmed through the OPLS modeling technique. Moreover, in comparison to linear regression, the OPLS model appeared to have higher sensitivity in detecting the predictors of ischemic stroke prognosis and detected several more predictors. Applying the OPLS model made it possible to use both single TCD measures/indicators and arbitrarily dichotomized measures of TCD single vessel involvement as well as the overall TCD result. In conclusion, the authors recommend PLS/OPLS methods as complementary rather than alternative to the available classical regression models such as linear regression.

  7. Use of empirical likelihood to calibrate auxiliary information in partly linear monotone regression models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Baojiang; Qin, Jing

    2014-05-10

    In statistical analysis, a regression model is needed if one is interested in finding the relationship between a response variable and covariates. When the response depends on the covariate, then it may also depend on the function of this covariate. If one has no knowledge of this functional form but expect for monotonic increasing or decreasing, then the isotonic regression model is preferable. Estimation of parameters for isotonic regression models is based on the pool-adjacent-violators algorithm (PAVA), where the monotonicity constraints are built in. With missing data, people often employ the augmented estimating method to improve estimation efficiency by incorporating auxiliary information through a working regression model. However, under the framework of the isotonic regression model, the PAVA does not work as the monotonicity constraints are violated. In this paper, we develop an empirical likelihood-based method for isotonic regression model to incorporate the auxiliary information. Because the monotonicity constraints still hold, the PAVA can be used for parameter estimation. Simulation studies demonstrate that the proposed method can yield more efficient estimates, and in some situations, the efficiency improvement is substantial. We apply this method to a dementia study. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  8. Development of an empirical model of turbine efficiency using the Taylor expansion and regression analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fang, Xiande; Xu, Yu

    2011-01-01

    The empirical model of turbine efficiency is necessary for the control- and/or diagnosis-oriented simulation and useful for the simulation and analysis of dynamic performances of the turbine equipment and systems, such as air cycle refrigeration systems, power plants, turbine engines, and turbochargers. Existing empirical models of turbine efficiency are insufficient because there is no suitable form available for air cycle refrigeration turbines. This work performs a critical review of empirical models (called mean value models in some literature) of turbine efficiency and develops an empirical model in the desired form for air cycle refrigeration, the dominant cooling approach in aircraft environmental control systems. The Taylor series and regression analysis are used to build the model, with the Taylor series being used to expand functions with the polytropic exponent and the regression analysis to finalize the model. The measured data of a turbocharger turbine and two air cycle refrigeration turbines are used for the regression analysis. The proposed model is compact and able to present the turbine efficiency map. Its predictions agree with the measured data very well, with the corrected coefficient of determination R c 2 ≥ 0.96 and the mean absolute percentage deviation = 1.19% for the three turbines. -- Highlights: → Performed a critical review of empirical models of turbine efficiency. → Developed an empirical model in the desired form for air cycle refrigeration, using the Taylor expansion and regression analysis. → Verified the method for developing the empirical model. → Verified the model.

  9. Comparing Regression Coefficients between Nested Linear Models for Clustered Data with Generalized Estimating Equations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yan, Jun; Aseltine, Robert H., Jr.; Harel, Ofer

    2013-01-01

    Comparing regression coefficients between models when one model is nested within another is of great practical interest when two explanations of a given phenomenon are specified as linear models. The statistical problem is whether the coefficients associated with a given set of covariates change significantly when other covariates are added into…

  10. Nonparametric identification of copula structures

    KAUST Repository

    Li, Bo

    2013-06-01

    We propose a unified framework for testing a variety of assumptions commonly made about the structure of copulas, including symmetry, radial symmetry, joint symmetry, associativity and Archimedeanity, and max-stability. Our test is nonparametric and based on the asymptotic distribution of the empirical copula process.We perform simulation experiments to evaluate our test and conclude that our method is reliable and powerful for assessing common assumptions on the structure of copulas, particularly when the sample size is moderately large. We illustrate our testing approach on two datasets. © 2013 American Statistical Association.

  11. Structured Additive Regression Models: An R Interface to BayesX

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nikolaus Umlauf

    2015-02-01

    Full Text Available Structured additive regression (STAR models provide a flexible framework for model- ing possible nonlinear effects of covariates: They contain the well established frameworks of generalized linear models and generalized additive models as special cases but also allow a wider class of effects, e.g., for geographical or spatio-temporal data, allowing for specification of complex and realistic models. BayesX is standalone software package providing software for fitting general class of STAR models. Based on a comprehensive open-source regression toolbox written in C++, BayesX uses Bayesian inference for estimating STAR models based on Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation techniques, a mixed model representation of STAR models, or stepwise regression techniques combining penalized least squares estimation with model selection. BayesX not only covers models for responses from univariate exponential families, but also models from less-standard regression situations such as models for multi-categorical responses with either ordered or unordered categories, continuous time survival data, or continuous time multi-state models. This paper presents a new fully interactive R interface to BayesX: the R package R2BayesX. With the new package, STAR models can be conveniently specified using Rs formula language (with some extended terms, fitted using the BayesX binary, represented in R with objects of suitable classes, and finally printed/summarized/plotted. This makes BayesX much more accessible to users familiar with R and adds extensive graphics capabilities for visualizing fitted STAR models. Furthermore, R2BayesX complements the already impressive capabilities for semiparametric regression in R by a comprehensive toolbox comprising in particular more complex response types and alternative inferential procedures such as simulation-based Bayesian inference.

  12. The Norwegian Healthier Goats program--modeling lactation curves using a multilevel cubic spline regression model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nagel-Alne, G E; Krontveit, R; Bohlin, J; Valle, P S; Skjerve, E; Sølverød, L S

    2014-07-01

    In 2001, the Norwegian Goat Health Service initiated the Healthier Goats program (HG), with the aim of eradicating caprine arthritis encephalitis, caseous lymphadenitis, and Johne's disease (caprine paratuberculosis) in Norwegian goat herds. The aim of the present study was to explore how control and eradication of the above-mentioned diseases by enrolling in HG affected milk yield by comparison with herds not enrolled in HG. Lactation curves were modeled using a multilevel cubic spline regression model where farm, goat, and lactation were included as random effect parameters. The data material contained 135,446 registrations of daily milk yield from 28,829 lactations in 43 herds. The multilevel cubic spline regression model was applied to 4 categories of data: enrolled early, control early, enrolled late, and control late. For enrolled herds, the early and late notations refer to the situation before and after enrolling in HG; for nonenrolled herds (controls), they refer to development over time, independent of HG. Total milk yield increased in the enrolled herds after eradication: the total milk yields in the fourth lactation were 634.2 and 873.3 kg in enrolled early and enrolled late herds, respectively, and 613.2 and 701.4 kg in the control early and control late herds, respectively. Day of peak yield differed between enrolled and control herds. The day of peak yield came on d 6 of lactation for the control early category for parities 2, 3, and 4, indicating an inability of the goats to further increase their milk yield from the initial level. For enrolled herds, on the other hand, peak yield came between d 49 and 56, indicating a gradual increase in milk yield after kidding. Our results indicate that enrollment in the HG disease eradication program improved the milk yield of dairy goats considerably, and that the multilevel cubic spline regression was a suitable model for exploring effects of disease control and eradication on milk yield. Copyright © 2014

  13. Profile-driven regression for modeling and runtime optimization of mobile networks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    McClary, Dan; Syrotiuk, Violet; Kulahci, Murat

    2010-01-01

    Computer networks often display nonlinear behavior when examined over a wide range of operating conditions. There are few strategies available for modeling such behavior and optimizing such systems as they run. Profile-driven regression is developed and applied to modeling and runtime optimization...... of throughput in a mobile ad hoc network, a self-organizing collection of mobile wireless nodes without any fixed infrastructure. The intermediate models generated in profile-driven regression are used to fit an overall model of throughput, and are also used to optimize controllable factors at runtime. Unlike...

  14. Regression models for interval censored survival data: Application to HIV infection in Danish homosexual men

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Carstensen, Bendix

    1996-01-01

    This paper shows how to fit excess and relative risk regression models to interval censored survival data, and how to implement the models in standard statistical software. The methods developed are used for the analysis of HIV infection rates in a cohort of Danish homosexual men.......This paper shows how to fit excess and relative risk regression models to interval censored survival data, and how to implement the models in standard statistical software. The methods developed are used for the analysis of HIV infection rates in a cohort of Danish homosexual men....

  15. The Relationship between Economic Growth and Money Laundering – a Linear Regression Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daniel Rece

    2009-09-01

    Full Text Available This study provides an overview of the relationship between economic growth and money laundering modeled by a least squares function. The report analyzes statistically data collected from USA, Russia, Romania and other eleven European countries, rendering a linear regression model. The study illustrates that 23.7% of the total variance in the regressand (level of money laundering is “explained” by the linear regression model. In our opinion, this model will provide critical auxiliary judgment and decision support for anti-money laundering service systems.

  16. A primer for biomedical scientists on how to execute model II linear regression analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ludbrook, John

    2012-04-01

    1. There are two very different ways of executing linear regression analysis. One is Model I, when the x-values are fixed by the experimenter. The other is Model II, in which the x-values are free to vary and are subject to error. 2. I have received numerous complaints from biomedical scientists that they have great difficulty in executing Model II linear regression analysis. This may explain the results of a Google Scholar search, which showed that the authors of articles in journals of physiology, pharmacology and biochemistry rarely use Model II regression analysis. 3. I repeat my previous arguments in favour of using least products linear regression analysis for Model II regressions. I review three methods for executing ordinary least products (OLP) and weighted least products (WLP) regression analysis: (i) scientific calculator and/or computer spreadsheet; (ii) specific purpose computer programs; and (iii) general purpose computer programs. 4. Using a scientific calculator and/or computer spreadsheet, it is easy to obtain correct values for OLP slope and intercept, but the corresponding 95% confidence intervals (CI) are inaccurate. 5. Using specific purpose computer programs, the freeware computer program smatr gives the correct OLP regression coefficients and obtains 95% CI by bootstrapping. In addition, smatr can be used to compare the slopes of OLP lines. 6. When using general purpose computer programs, I recommend the commercial programs systat and Statistica for those who regularly undertake linear regression analysis and I give step-by-step instructions in the Supplementary Information as to how to use loss functions. © 2011 The Author. Clinical and Experimental Pharmacology and Physiology. © 2011 Blackwell Publishing Asia Pty Ltd.

  17. Logistic regression models for polymorphic and antagonistic pleiotropic gene action on human aging and longevity

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Tan, Qihua; Bathum, L; Christiansen, L

    2003-01-01

    In this paper, we apply logistic regression models to measure genetic association with human survival for highly polymorphic and pleiotropic genes. By modelling genotype frequency as a function of age, we introduce a logistic regression model with polytomous responses to handle the polymorphic...... situation. Genotype and allele-based parameterization can be used to investigate the modes of gene action and to reduce the number of parameters, so that the power is increased while the amount of multiple testing minimized. A binomial logistic regression model with fractional polynomials is used to capture...... the age-dependent or antagonistic pleiotropic effects. The models are applied to HFE genotype data to assess the effects on human longevity by different alleles and to detect if an age-dependent effect exists. Application has shown that these methods can serve as useful tools in searching for important...

  18. Modeling Governance KB with CATPCA to Overcome Multicollinearity in the Logistic Regression

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khikmah, L.; Wijayanto, H.; Syafitri, U. D.

    2017-04-01

    The problem often encounters in logistic regression modeling are multicollinearity problems. Data that have multicollinearity between explanatory variables with the result in the estimation of parameters to be bias. Besides, the multicollinearity will result in error in the classification. In general, to overcome multicollinearity in regression used stepwise regression. They are also another method to overcome multicollinearity which involves all variable for prediction. That is Principal Component Analysis (PCA). However, classical PCA in only for numeric data. Its data are categorical, one method to solve the problems is Categorical Principal Component Analysis (CATPCA). Data were used in this research were a part of data Demographic and Population Survey Indonesia (IDHS) 2012. This research focuses on the characteristic of women of using the contraceptive methods. Classification results evaluated using Area Under Curve (AUC) values. The higher the AUC value, the better. Based on AUC values, the classification of the contraceptive method using stepwise method (58.66%) is better than the logistic regression model (57.39%) and CATPCA (57.39%). Evaluation of the results of logistic regression using sensitivity, shows the opposite where CATPCA method (99.79%) is better than logistic regression method (92.43%) and stepwise (92.05%). Therefore in this study focuses on major class classification (using a contraceptive method), then the selected model is CATPCA because it can raise the level of the major class model accuracy.

  19. Short-term forecasting of meteorological time series using Nonparametric Functional Data Analysis (NPFDA)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Curceac, S.; Ternynck, C.; Ouarda, T.

    2015-12-01

    Over the past decades, a substantial amount of research has been conducted to model and forecast climatic variables. In this study, Nonparametric Functional Data Analysis (NPFDA) methods are applied to forecast air temperature and wind speed time series in Abu Dhabi, UAE. The dataset consists of hourly measurements recorded for a period of 29 years, 1982-2010. The novelty of the Functional Data Analysis approach is in expressing the data as curves. In the present work, the focus is on daily forecasting and the functional observations (curves) express the daily measurements of the above mentioned variables. We apply a non-linear regression model with a functional non-parametric kernel estimator. The computation of the estimator is performed using an asymmetrical quadratic kernel function for local weighting based on the bandwidth obtained by a cross validation procedure. The proximities between functional objects are calculated by families of semi-metrics based on derivatives and Functional Principal Component Analysis (FPCA). Additionally, functional conditional mode and functional conditional median estimators are applied and the advantages of combining their results are analysed. A different approach employs a SARIMA model selected according to the minimum Akaike (AIC) and Bayessian (BIC) Information Criteria and based on the residuals of the model. The performance of the models is assessed by calculating error indices such as the root mean square error (RMSE), relative RMSE, BIAS and relative BIAS. The results indicate that the NPFDA models provide more accurate forecasts than the SARIMA models. Key words: Nonparametric functional data analysis, SARIMA, time series forecast, air temperature, wind speed

  20. Regression analysis understanding and building business and economic models using Excel

    CERN Document Server

    Wilson, J Holton

    2012-01-01

    The technique of regression analysis is used so often in business and economics today that an understanding of its use is necessary for almost everyone engaged in the field. This book will teach you the essential elements of building and understanding regression models in a business/economic context in an intuitive manner. The authors take a non-theoretical treatment that is accessible even if you have a limited statistical background. It is specifically designed to teach the correct use of regression, while advising you of its limitations and teaching about common pitfalls. This book describe

  1. Estimasi Model Seemingly Unrelated Regression (SUR dengan Metode Generalized Least Square (GLS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ade Widyaningsih

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available Regression analysis is a statistical tool that is used to determine the relationship between two or more quantitative variables so that one variable can be predicted from the other variables. A method that can used to obtain a good estimation in the regression analysis is ordinary least squares method. The least squares method is used to estimate the parameters of one or more regression but relationships among the errors in the response of other estimators are not allowed. One way to overcome this problem is Seemingly Unrelated Regression model (SUR in which parameters are estimated using Generalized Least Square (GLS. In this study, the author applies SUR model using GLS method on world gasoline demand data. The author obtains that SUR using GLS is better than OLS because SUR produce smaller errors than the OLS.

  2. Estimasi Model Seemingly Unrelated Regression (SUR dengan Metode Generalized Least Square (GLS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ade Widyaningsih

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available Regression analysis is a statistical tool that is used to determine the relationship between two or more quantitative variables so that one variable can be predicted from the other variables. A method that can used to obtain a good estimation in the regression analysis is ordinary least squares method. The least squares method is used to estimate the parameters of one or more regression but relationships among the errors in the response of other estimators are not allowed. One way to overcome this problem is Seemingly Unrelated Regression model (SUR in which parameters are estimated using Generalized Least Square (GLS. In this study, the author applies SUR model using GLS method on world gasoline demand data. The author obtains that SUR using GLS is better than OLS because SUR produce smaller errors than the OLS.

  3. A land use regression model for ambient ultrafine particles in Montreal, Canada: A comparison of linear regression and a machine learning approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weichenthal, Scott; Ryswyk, Keith Van; Goldstein, Alon; Bagg, Scott; Shekkarizfard, Maryam; Hatzopoulou, Marianne

    2016-04-01

    Existing evidence suggests that ambient ultrafine particles (UFPs) (regression model for UFPs in Montreal, Canada using mobile monitoring data collected from 414 road segments during the summer and winter months between 2011 and 2012. Two different approaches were examined for model development including standard multivariable linear regression and a machine learning approach (kernel-based regularized least squares (KRLS)) that learns the functional form of covariate impacts on ambient UFP concentrations from the data. The final models included parameters for population density, ambient temperature and wind speed, land use parameters (park space and open space), length of local roads and rail, and estimated annual average NOx emissions from traffic. The final multivariable linear regression model explained 62% of the spatial variation in ambient UFP concentrations whereas the KRLS model explained 79% of the variance. The KRLS model performed slightly better than the linear regression model when evaluated using an external dataset (R(2)=0.58 vs. 0.55) or a cross-validation procedure (R(2)=0.67 vs. 0.60). In general, our findings suggest that the KRLS approach may offer modest improvements in predictive performance compared to standard multivariable linear regression models used to estimate spatial variations in ambient UFPs. However, differences in predictive performance were not statistically significant when evaluated using the cross-validation procedure. Crown Copyright © 2015. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  4. Modelling of binary logistic regression for obesity among secondary students in a rural area of Kedah

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kamaruddin, Ainur Amira; Ali, Zalila; Noor, Norlida Mohd.; Baharum, Adam; Ahmad, Wan Muhamad Amir W.

    2014-07-01

    Logistic regression analysis examines the influence of various factors on a dichotomous outcome by estimating the probability of the event's occurrence. Logistic regression, also called a logit model, is a statistical procedure used to model dichotomous outcomes. In the logit model the log odds of the dichotomous outcome is modeled as a linear combination of the predictor variables. The log odds ratio in logistic regression provides a description of the probabilistic relationship of the variables and the outcome. In conducting logistic regression, selection procedures are used in selecting important predictor variables, diagnostics are used to check that assumptions are valid which include independence of errors, linearity in the logit for continuous variables, absence of multicollinearity, and lack of strongly influential outliers and a test statistic is calculated to determine the aptness of the model. This study used the binary logistic regression model to investigate overweight and obesity among rural secondary school students on the basis of their demographics profile, medical history, diet and lifestyle. The results indicate that overweight and obesity of students are influenced by obesity in family and the interaction between a student's ethnicity and routine meals intake. The odds of a student being overweight and obese are higher for a student having a family history of obesity and for a non-Malay student who frequently takes routine meals as compared to a Malay student.

  5. Validation of regression models for nitrate concentrations in the upper groundwater in sandy soils

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sonneveld, M.P.W.; Brus, D.J.; Roelsma, J.

    2010-01-01

    For Dutch sandy regions, linear regression models have been developed that predict nitrate concentrations in the upper groundwater on the basis of residual nitrate contents in the soil in autumn. The objective of our study was to validate these regression models for one particular sandy region dominated by dairy farming. No data from this area were used for calibrating the regression models. The model was validated by additional probability sampling. This sample was used to estimate errors in 1) the predicted areal fractions where the EU standard of 50 mg l -1 is exceeded for farms with low N surpluses (ALT) and farms with higher N surpluses (REF); 2) predicted cumulative frequency distributions of nitrate concentration for both groups of farms. Both the errors in the predicted areal fractions as well as the errors in the predicted cumulative frequency distributions indicate that the regression models are invalid for the sandy soils of this study area. - This study indicates that linear regression models that predict nitrate concentrations in the upper groundwater using residual soil N contents should be applied with care.

  6. A brief introduction to regression designs and mixed-effects modelling by a recent convert

    OpenAIRE

    Balling, Laura Winther

    2008-01-01

    This article discusses the advantages of multiple regression designs over the factorial designs traditionally used in many psycholinguistic experiments. It is shown that regression designs are typically more informative, statistically more powerful and better suited to the analysis of naturalistic tasks. The advantages of including both fixed and random effects are demonstrated with reference to linear mixed-effects models, and problems of collinearity, variable distribution and variable sele...

  7. A computational approach to compare regression modelling strategies in prediction research.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pajouheshnia, Romin; Pestman, Wiebe R; Teerenstra, Steven; Groenwold, Rolf H H

    2016-08-25

    It is often unclear which approach to fit, assess and adjust a model will yield the most accurate prediction model. We present an extension of an approach for comparing modelling strategies in linear regression to the setting of logistic regression and demonstrate its application in clinical prediction research. A framework for comparing logistic regression modelling strategies by their likelihoods was formulated using a wrapper approach. Five different strategies for modelling, including simple shrinkage methods, were compared in four empirical data sets to illustrate the concept of a priori strategy comparison. Simulations were performed in both randomly generated data and empirical data to investigate the influence of data characteristics on strategy performance. We applied the comparison framework in a case study setting. Optimal strategies were selected based on the results of a priori comparisons in a clinical data set and the performance of models built according to each strategy was assessed using the Brier score and calibration plots. The performance of modelling strategies was highly dependent on the characteristics of the development data in both linear and logistic regression settings. A priori comparisons in four empirical data sets found that no strategy consistently outperformed the others. The percentage of times that a model adjustment strategy outperformed a logistic model ranged from 3.9 to 94.9 %, depending on the strategy and data set. However, in our case study setting the a priori selection of optimal methods did not result in detectable improvement in model performance when assessed in an external data set. The performance of prediction modelling strategies is a data-dependent process and can be highly variable between data sets within the same clinical domain. A priori strategy comparison can be used to determine an optimal logistic regression modelling strategy for a given data set before selecting a final modelling approach.

  8. The Stellar Initial Mass Function in Early-type Galaxies from Absorption Line Spectroscopy. IV. A Super-Salpeter IMF in the Center of NGC 1407 from Non-parametric Models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Conroy, Charlie [Department of Astronomy, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA, 02138 (United States); Van Dokkum, Pieter G. [Department of Astronomy, Yale University, New Haven, CT, 06511 (United States); Villaume, Alexa [Department of Astronomy and Astrophysics, University of California, Santa Cruz, CA 95064 (United States)

    2017-03-10

    It is now well-established that the stellar initial mass function (IMF) can be determined from the absorption line spectra of old stellar systems, and this has been used to measure the IMF and its variation across the early-type galaxy population. Previous work focused on measuring the slope of the IMF over one or more stellar mass intervals, implicitly assuming that this is a good description of the IMF and that the IMF has a universal low-mass cutoff. In this work we consider more flexible IMFs, including two-component power laws with a variable low-mass cutoff and a general non-parametric model. We demonstrate with mock spectra that the detailed shape of the IMF can be accurately recovered as long as the data quality is high (S/N ≳ 300 Å{sup −1}) and cover a wide wavelength range (0.4–1.0 μ m). We apply these flexible IMF models to a high S/N spectrum of the center of the massive elliptical galaxy NGC 1407. Fitting the spectrum with non-parametric IMFs, we find that the IMF in the center shows a continuous rise extending toward the hydrogen-burning limit, with a behavior that is well-approximated by a power law with an index of −2.7. These results provide strong evidence for the existence of extreme (super-Salpeter) IMFs in the cores of massive galaxies.

  9. Nonparametric inference of network structure and dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peixoto, Tiago P.

    The network structure of complex systems determine their function and serve as evidence for the evolutionary mechanisms that lie behind them. Despite considerable effort in recent years, it remains an open challenge to formulate general descriptions of the large-scale structure of network systems, and how to reliably extract such information from data. Although many approaches have been proposed, few methods attempt to gauge the statistical significance of the uncovered structures, and hence the majority cannot reliably separate actual structure from stochastic fluctuations. Due to the sheer size and high-dimensionality of many networks, this represents a major limitation that prevents meaningful interpretations of the results obtained with such nonstatistical methods. In this talk, I will show how these issues can be tackled in a principled and efficient fashion by formulating appropriate generative models of network structure that can have their parameters inferred from data. By employing a Bayesian description of such models, the inference can be performed in a nonparametric fashion, that does not require any a priori knowledge or ad hoc assumptions about the data. I will show how this approach can be used to perform model comparison, and how hierarchical models yield the most appropriate trade-off between model complexity and quality of fit based on the statistical evidence present in the data. I will also show how this general approach can be elegantly extended to networks with edge attributes, that are embedded in latent spaces, and that change in time. The latter is obtained via a fully dynamic generative network model, based on arbitrary-order Markov chains, that can also be inferred in a nonparametric fashion. Throughout the talk I will illustrate the application of the methods with many empirical networks such as the internet at the autonomous systems level, the global airport network, the network of actors and films, social networks, citations among

  10. truncSP: An R Package for Estimation of Semi-Parametric Truncated Linear Regression Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maria Karlsson

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available Problems with truncated data occur in many areas, complicating estimation and inference. Regarding linear regression models, the ordinary least squares estimator is inconsistent and biased for these types of data and is therefore unsuitable for use. Alternative estimators, designed for the estimation of truncated regression models, have been developed. This paper presents the R package truncSP. The package contains functions for the estimation of semi-parametric truncated linear regression models using three different estimators: the symmetrically trimmed least squares, quadratic mode, and left truncated estimators, all of which have been shown to have good asymptotic and ?nite sample properties. The package also provides functions for the analysis of the estimated models. Data from the environmental sciences are used to illustrate the functions in the package.

  11. A Powerful Test for Comparing Multiple Regression Functions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maity, Arnab

    2012-09-01

    In this article, we address the important problem of comparison of two or more population regression functions. Recently, Pardo-Fernández, Van Keilegom and González-Manteiga (2007) developed test statistics for simple nonparametric regression models: Y(ij) = θ(j)(Z(ij)) + σ(j)(Z(ij))∊(ij), based on empirical distributions of the errors in each population j = 1, … , J. In this paper, we propose a test for equality of the θ(j)(·) based on the concept of generalized likelihood ratio type statistics. We also generalize our test for other nonparametric regression setups, e.g, nonparametric logistic regression, where the loglikelihood for population j is any general smooth function [Formula: see text]. We describe a resampling procedure to obtain the critical values of the test. In addition, we present a simulation study to evaluate the performance of the proposed test and compare our results to those in Pardo-Fernández et al. (2007).

  12. Modeling and prediction of Turkey's electricity consumption using Support Vector Regression

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kavaklioglu, Kadir

    2011-01-01

    Support Vector Regression (SVR) methodology is used to model and predict Turkey's electricity consumption. Among various SVR formalisms, ε-SVR method was used since the training pattern set was relatively small. Electricity consumption is modeled as a function of socio-economic indicators such as population, Gross National Product, imports and exports. In order to facilitate future predictions of electricity consumption, a separate SVR model was created for each of the input variables using their current and past values; and these models were combined to yield consumption prediction values. A grid search for the model parameters was performed to find the best ε-SVR model for each variable based on Root Mean Square Error. Electricity consumption of Turkey is predicted until 2026 using data from 1975 to 2006. The results show that electricity consumption can be modeled using Support Vector Regression and the models can be used to predict future electricity consumption. (author)

  13. Improved model of the retardance in citric acid coated ferrofluids using stepwise regression

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, J. F.; Qiu, X. R.

    2017-06-01

    Citric acid (CA) coated Fe3O4 ferrofluids (FFs) have been conducted for biomedical application. The magneto-optical retardance of CA coated FFs was measured by a Stokes polarimeter. Optimization and multiple regression of retardance in FFs were executed by Taguchi method and Microsoft Excel previously, and the F value of regression model was large enough. However, the model executed by Excel was not systematic. Instead we adopted the stepwise regression to model the retardance of CA coated FFs. From the results of stepwise regression by MATLAB, the developed model had highly predictable ability owing to F of 2.55897e+7 and correlation coefficient of one. The average absolute error of predicted retardances to measured retardances was just 0.0044%. Using the genetic algorithm (GA) in MATLAB, the optimized parametric combination was determined as [4.709 0.12 39.998 70.006] corresponding to the pH of suspension, molar ratio of CA to Fe3O4, CA volume, and coating temperature. The maximum retardance was found as 31.712°, close to that obtained by evolutionary solver in Excel and a relative error of -0.013%. Above all, the stepwise regression method was successfully used to model the retardance of CA coated FFs, and the maximum global retardance was determined by the use of GA.

  14. On pseudo-values for regression analysis in competing risks models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Graw, F; Gerds, Thomas Alexander; Schumacher, M

    2009-01-01

    For regression on state and transition probabilities in multi-state models Andersen et al. (Biometrika 90:15-27, 2003) propose a technique based on jackknife pseudo-values. In this article we analyze the pseudo-values suggested for competing risks models and prove some conjectures regarding their...

  15. A Predictive Logistic Regression Model of World Conflict Using Open Source Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-03-26

    No correlation between the error terms and the independent variables 9. Absence of perfect multicollinearity (Menard, 2001) When assumptions are...some of the variables before initial model building. Multicollinearity , or near-linear dependence among the variables will cause problems in the...model. High multicollinearity tends to produce unreasonably high logistic regression coefficients and can result in coefficients that are not

  16. Sample size calculation to externally validate scoring systems based on logistic regression models.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Antonio Palazón-Bru

    Full Text Available A sample size containing at least 100 events and 100 non-events has been suggested to validate a predictive model, regardless of the model being validated and that certain factors can influence calibration of the predictive model (discrimination, parameterization and incidence. Scoring systems based on binary logistic regression models are a specific type of predictive model.The aim of this study was to develop an algorithm to determine the sample size for validating a scoring system based on a binary logistic regression model and to apply it to a case study.The algorithm was based on bootstrap samples in which the area under the ROC curve, the observed event probabilities through smooth curves, and a measure to determine the lack of calibration (estimated calibration index were calculated. To illustrate its use for interested researchers, the algorithm was applied to a scoring system, based on a binary logistic regression model, to determine mortality in intensive care units.In the case study provided, the algorithm obtained a sample size with 69 events, which is lower than the value suggested in the literature.An algorithm is provided for finding the appropriate sample size to validate scoring systems based on binary logistic regression models. This could be applied to determine the sample size in other similar cases.

  17. Computational Tools for Probing Interactions in Multiple Linear Regression, Multilevel Modeling, and Latent Curve Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Preacher, Kristopher J.; Curran, Patrick J.; Bauer, Daniel J.

    2006-01-01

    Simple slopes, regions of significance, and confidence bands are commonly used to evaluate interactions in multiple linear regression (MLR) models, and the use of these techniques has recently been extended to multilevel or hierarchical linear modeling (HLM) and latent curve analysis (LCA). However, conducting these tests and plotting the…

  18. Fitting multistate transition models with autoregressive logistic regression : Supervised exercise in intermittent claudication

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    de Vries, S O; Fidler, Vaclav; Kuipers, Wietze D; Hunink, Maria G M

    1998-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to develop a model that predicts the outcome of supervised exercise for intermittent claudication. The authors present an example of the use of autoregressive logistic regression for modeling observed longitudinal data. Data were collected from 329 participants in a

  19. Endogenous glucose production from infancy to adulthood: a non-linear regression model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Huidekoper, Hidde H.; Ackermans, Mariëtte T.; Ruiter, An F. C.; Sauerwein, Hans P.; Wijburg, Frits A.

    2014-01-01

    To construct a regression model for endogenous glucose production (EGP) as a function of age, and compare this with glucose supplementation using commonly used dextrose-based saline solutions at fluid maintenance rate in children. A model was constructed based on EGP data, as quantified by

  20. INTRODUCTION TO A COMBINED MULTIPLE LINEAR REGRESSION AND ARMA MODELING APPROACH FOR BEACH BACTERIA PREDICTION

    Science.gov (United States)

    Due to the complexity of the processes contributing to beach bacteria concentrations, many researchers rely on statistical modeling, among which multiple linear regression (MLR) modeling is most widely used. Despite its ease of use and interpretation, there may be time dependence...