WorldWideScience

Sample records for nonlinear incidence rate

  1. First Principles Modeling of Nonlinear Incidence Rates in Seasonal Epidemics

    OpenAIRE

    2011-01-01

    In this paper we used a general stochastic processes framework to derive from first principles the incidence rate function that characterizes epidemic models. We investigate a particular case, the Liu-Hethcote-van den Driessche's (LHD) incidence rate function, which results from modeling the number of successful transmission encounters as a pure birth process. This derivation also takes into account heterogeneity in the population with regard to the per individual transmission probability. We...

  2. First principles modeling of nonlinear incidence rates in seasonal epidemics.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    José M Ponciano

    2011-02-01

    Full Text Available In this paper we used a general stochastic processes framework to derive from first principles the incidence rate function that characterizes epidemic models. We investigate a particular case, the Liu-Hethcote-van den Driessche's (LHD incidence rate function, which results from modeling the number of successful transmission encounters as a pure birth process. This derivation also takes into account heterogeneity in the population with regard to the per individual transmission probability. We adjusted a deterministic SIRS model with both the classical and the LHD incidence rate functions to time series of the number of children infected with syncytial respiratory virus in Banjul, Gambia and Turku, Finland. We also adjusted a deterministic SEIR model with both incidence rate functions to the famous measles data sets from the UK cities of London and Birmingham. Two lines of evidence supported our conclusion that the model with the LHD incidence rate may very well be a better description of the seasonal epidemic processes studied here. First, our model was repeatedly selected as best according to two different information criteria and two different likelihood formulations. The second line of evidence is qualitative in nature: contrary to what the SIRS model with classical incidence rate predicts, the solution of the deterministic SIRS model with LHD incidence rate will reach either the disease free equilibrium or the endemic equilibrium depending on the initial conditions. These findings along with computer intensive simulations of the models' Poincaré map with environmental stochasticity contributed to attain a clear separation of the roles of the environmental forcing and the mechanics of the disease transmission in shaping seasonal epidemics dynamics.

  3. First principles modeling of nonlinear incidence rates in seasonal epidemics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ponciano, José M; Capistrán, Marcos A

    2011-02-01

    In this paper we used a general stochastic processes framework to derive from first principles the incidence rate function that characterizes epidemic models. We investigate a particular case, the Liu-Hethcote-van den Driessche's (LHD) incidence rate function, which results from modeling the number of successful transmission encounters as a pure birth process. This derivation also takes into account heterogeneity in the population with regard to the per individual transmission probability. We adjusted a deterministic SIRS model with both the classical and the LHD incidence rate functions to time series of the number of children infected with syncytial respiratory virus in Banjul, Gambia and Turku, Finland. We also adjusted a deterministic SEIR model with both incidence rate functions to the famous measles data sets from the UK cities of London and Birmingham. Two lines of evidence supported our conclusion that the model with the LHD incidence rate may very well be a better description of the seasonal epidemic processes studied here. First, our model was repeatedly selected as best according to two different information criteria and two different likelihood formulations. The second line of evidence is qualitative in nature: contrary to what the SIRS model with classical incidence rate predicts, the solution of the deterministic SIRS model with LHD incidence rate will reach either the disease free equilibrium or the endemic equilibrium depending on the initial conditions. These findings along with computer intensive simulations of the models' Poincaré map with environmental stochasticity contributed to attain a clear separation of the roles of the environmental forcing and the mechanics of the disease transmission in shaping seasonal epidemics dynamics.

  4. Nonlinear Stability of a SIRS Epidemic Model with Convex Incidence Rate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buonomo, B.; Rionero, S.

    2010-09-01

    We study an epidemic model for infections with non permanent acquired immunity (SIRS). The incidence rate is assumed to be convex respect to the infective class. By using a peculiar Lyapunov function, we obtain necessary and sufficient conditions for the local nonlinear stability of equilibria. Conditions ensuring the global stability of the endemic equilibrium are also obtained. Our procedure allows to enlarge the class of incidence rates ensuring the Lyapunov nonlinear stability of the endemic equilibrium for SIRS models.

  5. A class of stochastic delayed SIR epidemic models with generalized nonlinear incidence rate and temporary immunity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fan, Kuangang; Zhang, Yan; Gao, Shujing; Wei, Xiang

    2017-09-01

    A class of SIR epidemic model with generalized nonlinear incidence rate is presented in this paper. Temporary immunity and stochastic perturbation are also considered. The existence and uniqueness of the global positive solution is achieved. Sufficient conditions guaranteeing the extinction and persistence of the epidemic disease are established. Moreover, the threshold behavior is discussed, and the threshold value R0 is obtained. We show that if R0 1, then the system remains permanent in the mean.

  6. An SIR Epidemic Model with Time Delay and General Nonlinear Incidence Rate

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mingming Li

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available An SIR epidemic model with nonlinear incidence rate and time delay is investigated. The disease transmission function and the rate that infected individuals recovered from the infected compartment are assumed to be governed by general functions F(S,I and G(I, respectively. By constructing Lyapunov functionals and using the Lyapunov-LaSalle invariance principle, the global asymptotic stability of the disease-free equilibrium and the endemic equilibrium is obtained. It is shown that the global properties of the system depend on both the properties of these general functions and the basic reproductive number R0.

  7. The Dynamics of an Eco-Epidemiological Model with Nonlinear Incidence Rate

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Raid Kamel Naji

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper treats the dynamical behavior of eco-epidemiological model with nonlinear incidence rate. A Holling type II prey-predator model with SI-type of disease in prey has been proposed and analyzed. The existence, uniqueness, and boundedness of the solution of the system are studied. The local and global dynamical behaviors are investigated. The conditions, which guarantee the occurring of Hopf bifurcation of the system, are established. Finally, further investigations for the global dynamics of the proposed system are carried out with the help of numerical simulations.

  8. QUALITATIVE ANALYSIS OF AN SEIS EPIDEMIC MODEL WITH NONLINEAR INCIDENCE RATE

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    WANG La-di; LI Jian-quan

    2006-01-01

    By means of limit theory and Fonda's theorem, an SEIS epidemic model with constant recruitment and the disease-related rate is considered. The incidence term is of the nonlinear form, and the basic reproduction number is found. If the basic reproduction number is less than one, there exists only the disease-free equilibrium, which is globally asymptotically stable, and the disease dies out eventually. If the basic reproduction number is greater than one, besides the unstable disease-free equilibrium, there exists also a unique endemic equilibrium, which is locally asymptotically stable, and the disease is uniformly persistent.

  9. Computational Modelling and Optimal Control of Ebola Virus Disease with non-Linear Incidence Rate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Takaidza, I.; Makinde, O. D.; Okosun, O. K.

    2017-03-01

    The 2014 Ebola outbreak in West Africa has exposed the need to connect modellers and those with relevant data as pivotal to better understanding of how the disease spreads and quantifying the effects of possible interventions. In this paper, we model and analyse the Ebola virus disease with non-linear incidence rate. The epidemic model created is used to describe how the Ebola virus could potentially evolve in a population. We perform an uncertainty analysis of the basic reproductive number R 0 to quantify its sensitivity to other disease-related parameters. We also analyse the sensitivity of the final epidemic size to the time control interventions (education, vaccination, quarantine and safe handling) and provide the cost effective combination of the interventions.

  10. Global stability for delay SIR and SEIR epidemic models with nonlinear incidence rate.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Gang; Takeuchi, Yasuhiro; Ma, Wanbiao; Wei, Daijun

    2010-07-01

    In this paper, based on SIR and SEIR epidemic models with a general nonlinear incidence rate, we incorporate time delays into the ordinary differential equation models. In particular, we consider two delay differential equation models in which delays are caused (i) by the latency of the infection in a vector, and (ii) by the latent period in an infected host. By constructing suitable Lyapunov functionals and using the Lyapunov-LaSalle invariance principle, we prove the global stability of the endemic equilibrium and the disease-free equilibrium for time delays of any length in each model. Our results show that the global properties of equilibria also only depend on the basic reproductive number and that the latent period in a vector does not affect the stability, but the latent period in an infected host plays a positive role to control disease development.

  11. Lyapunov Functions for a Class of Discrete SIRS Epidemic Models with Nonlinear Incidence Rate and Varying Population Sizes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ying Wang

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available We investigate the dynamical behaviors of a class of discrete SIRS epidemic models with nonlinear incidence rate and varying population sizes. The model is required to possess different death rates for the susceptible, infectious, recovered, and constant recruitment into the susceptible class, infectious class, and recovered class, respectively. By using the inductive method, the positivity and boundedness of all solutions are obtained. Furthermore, by constructing new discrete type Lyapunov functions, the sufficient and necessary conditions on the global asymptotic stability of the disease-free equilibrium and endemic equilibrium are established.

  12. Idiot Savants: Rate of Incidence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hill, A. Lewis

    1977-01-01

    A survey of 300 public residential facilities for the mentally retarded revealed a .06 percent incidence rate for idiot savants, persons of low intelligence who possess an unusually high skill in some special task. (CL)

  13. Decreasing incidence rates of bacteremia

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Stig Lønberg; Pedersen, C; Jensen, T G

    2014-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Numerous studies have shown that the incidence rate of bacteremia has been increasing over time. However, few studies have distinguished between community-acquired, healthcare-associated and nosocomial bacteremia. METHODS: We conducted a population-based study among adults with first......-time bacteremia in Funen County, Denmark, during 2000-2008 (N = 7786). We reported mean and annual incidence rates (per 100,000 person-years), overall and by place of acquisition. Trends were estimated using a Poisson regression model. RESULTS: The overall incidence rate was 215.7, including 99.0 for community......-acquired, 50.0 for healthcare-associated and 66.7 for nosocomial bacteremia. During 2000-2008, the overall incidence rate decreased by 23.3% from 254.1 to 198.8 (3.3% annually, p bacteremia decreased by 25.6% from 119.0 to 93.8 (3.7% annually, p

  14. A Nonlinear Approach to Tunisian Inflation Rate

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Thouraya Boujelbène Dammak

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available In this study, we investigated the properties and the macroeconomic performance of the nonlinearity of the Inflation Rate Set in Tunisia. We developed an inference asymptotic theory for an unrestricted two-regime threshold autoregressive (TAR model with an autoregressive unit root. We proposed two types of tests namely asymptotic and bootstrap-based. These tests as well as the distribution theory allow a joint consideration of nonlinear thresholds and non-stationary unit roots. Our empirical results reveal a strong evidence of a threshold effect. This makes clear the possibility of non stationary and nonlinear of the Monthly Inflation Rate in Tunisia for the 1994.01-2011.06 period. While the Perron test found a unit root, our TAR unit root tests are arguably significant. Then, the evidence is quite strong that the inflation rate is not a unit root process.

  15. The Nonlinear Spatial Damping Rate in QGP

    CERN Document Server

    Jiarong, L

    1998-01-01

    The derivative expansion method has been used to solve the semiclassical kinetic equations of quark-gluon plasma (QGP). The nonlinear spatial damping rate, the imaginary part of the wave vector, for the longitudinal secondary color waves in the long wavelength limit has been calculated numerically.

  16. Persistence and extinction in stochastic SIS epidemic model with nonlinear incidence rate%非线性传染率的随机 SIS 传染病模型的持久性和灭绝性

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    周艳丽; 张卫国

    2013-01-01

    讨论了一类具有非线性传染率的随机SIS传染病模型。证明了该模型全局惟一正解的存在性;研究了模型解的长期渐近行为:当R0≤1时,证明了模型的无病平衡点是随机全局渐近稳定的;当R0>1时,证明了随机系统的解围绕确定性模型的地方病平衡点震荡,进而得到了疾病平均持续存在以及疾病随机灭绝的充分条件。数值仿真验证了文中主要结论的正确性。%A stochastic SIS epidemic model with nonlinear incidence is investigated.First, the existence of global posi-tive solution is obtained;Next, the asymptotic behaviors of the model are studied that is if R0≤1, the disease-free equi-librium is stochastically asymptotical stability, and if R0 >1 the solution is oscillating around the endemic equilibrium of the deterministic model.Furthermore, the sufficient conditions of persistence in the mean and stochastic extinction are obtained.Finally, the theoretical results are illustrated by numerical simulations.

  17. Gallbladder Cancer Incidence and Death Rates

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... with a poor outcome, often death. The journal Cancer Epidemiology, Biomarkers and Prevention published a CDC study looking ... cancer incidence and mortality, United States, 1999–2011. Cancer Epidemiology, Biomarkers and Prevention 2015. More Information Gallbladder Cancer ( ...

  18. Incidence and frequency rates of childhood cancer in Namibia

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    calculated incidence and frequency rates from the data obtained ... incidence of childhood cancer recorded in Namibia was lower than the ... Tumours of the central nervous system occurred .... clinical, laboratory and radiological investigation.

  19. Methodological choices affect cancer incidence rates: a cohort study

    OpenAIRE

    Hannah L Brooke; Talbäck, Mats; Feychting, Maria; Ljung, Rickard

    2017-01-01

    Background Incidence rates are fundamental to epidemiology, but their magnitude and interpretation depend on methodological choices. We aimed to examine the extent to which the definition of the study population affects cancer incidence rates. Methods All primary cancer diagnoses in Sweden between 1958 and 2010 were identified from the national Cancer Register. Age-standardized and age-specific incidence rates of 29 cancer subtypes between 2000 and 2010 were calculated using four definitions ...

  20. Threshold Dynamics in Stochastic SIRS Epidemic Models with Nonlinear Incidence and Vaccination.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Lei; Teng, Zhidong; Tang, Tingting; Li, Zhiming

    2017-01-01

    In this paper, the dynamical behaviors for a stochastic SIRS epidemic model with nonlinear incidence and vaccination are investigated. In the models, the disease transmission coefficient and the removal rates are all affected by noise. Some new basic properties of the models are found. Applying these properties, we establish a series of new threshold conditions on the stochastically exponential extinction, stochastic persistence, and permanence in the mean of the disease with probability one for the models. Furthermore, we obtain a sufficient condition on the existence of unique stationary distribution for the model. Finally, a series of numerical examples are introduced to illustrate our main theoretical results and some conjectures are further proposed.

  1. 一类具有治愈率和非线性发生率的H IV 感染模型的动力学特性%Dynamics of HIV Infection Model with Cure Rate and Nonlinear Incidence Rate

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    王海彬; 徐瑞; 陈辉

    2013-01-01

      研究了一类具有治愈率和非线性发生率的HIV感染模型的动力学性质,给出了决定病毒消亡与否的基本再生数的数学表达式,利用特征方程和Hurwitz判据分析了模型平衡点的局部稳定性。通过构造Lyapunov函数,证明了当基本再生数<1时无病平衡点是全局渐近稳定性的,利用第二加性复合矩阵理论,证明了当基本再生数>1时感染平衡点是全局渐近稳定的。%The dynamics of HIV infection model with cure rate and nonlinear incidence rate is investigated .The explicit expression for the basic reproduction number of the model which determines whether the virus dies out or not is obtained.With characteristic equation and Hurwitz criterion , the local stability of the equilibria is analyzed .By constructing a proper Lyapunov function , the global stability of the infection-free equilibrium is derived when the basic reproduction number is less than unity .Using the second additive compound matrix theory,we prove that the endemic equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable when the basic reproduction number is greater than unity .

  2. Decreased tuberculosis incidence and declining clustered case rates, Madrid.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Iñigo, Jesús; Arce, Araceli; Palenque, Elia; García de Viedma, Darío; Chaves, Fernando

    2008-10-01

    To determine effect of recent tuberculosis transmission rates on incidence rates, we conducted 2 prospective population-based molecular epidemiologic studies in Madrid during 1997-1999 (4% immigrants) and 2002-2004 (14.9% immigrants). Case rates decreased in association with declining clustered case rates among Spanish-born persons. New strains were introduced through immigration.

  3. Global dynamics of a vector-borne disease model with latency and saturating incidence rate

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ashrafur Rahman

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available This paper deals with a vector-borne disease model containing latency and nonlinear incidence rates. Global analysis is completely determined by suitable Lyapunov functionals. We explicitely determine the basic reproduction number and find that if this number is less than one then disease dies out, but if the number is larger than one, the disease causing strain become endemic. The study shows that the latency delay explicitely in°uence the disease persistence. Keywords: Latency, saturating incidence, basic reproduction number, global attractivity, Lyapunov functionals.

  4. Threshold Dynamics in Stochastic SIRS Epidemic Models with Nonlinear Incidence and Vaccination

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Lei; Tang, Tingting

    2017-01-01

    In this paper, the dynamical behaviors for a stochastic SIRS epidemic model with nonlinear incidence and vaccination are investigated. In the models, the disease transmission coefficient and the removal rates are all affected by noise. Some new basic properties of the models are found. Applying these properties, we establish a series of new threshold conditions on the stochastically exponential extinction, stochastic persistence, and permanence in the mean of the disease with probability one for the models. Furthermore, we obtain a sufficient condition on the existence of unique stationary distribution for the model. Finally, a series of numerical examples are introduced to illustrate our main theoretical results and some conjectures are further proposed. PMID:28194223

  5. Trends in lung cancer incidence rates, Oklahoma 2005-2010.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dana S Mowls

    Full Text Available Lung cancer is the second most frequently diagnosed cancer among men and women in the United States. With cigarette smoking causing the majority of cases, patterns in lung cancer are often monitored to understand the impact of anti-tobacco efforts. The purpose of this research was to investigate trends in lung cancer incidence rates for the period 2005-2010 in Oklahoma.Data on Oklahoma's incident cases of lung cancer (2005-2010 were obtained from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention WONDER system. Annual percent change (APC was calculated by linear regression to characterize trends in lung cancer incidence rates over time for the overall population, by gender, by age group, and by age group within gender. Rates were considered to increase or decrease if the p-value for trend was <0.05.From 2005 through 2010, lung cancer incidence rates declined from 81.96 to 68.19 per 100,000 population, with an APC of -3.58% (p-value: 0.0220. When subgroups were examined, declines were observed among all males (APC: -4.25%; p-value: 0.0270, males <65 years (APC: -5.32%; p-value: 0.0008, females <65 years (APC: -4.85%; p-value: 0.0044, and persons aged 55-64 years (APC: -6.38%; p-value: 0.0017.Declines in lung cancer incidence rates occurred during 2005-2010 among the overall population and within select demographic groups in Oklahoma. Although trends were stable for several demographic groups, rates of lung cancer incidence were lower in 2010 compared to 2005. Continued evidence-based tobacco control efforts are needed to ensure further reductions in lung cancer incidence rates in the state of Oklahoma.

  6. Global Stability of an HIV-1 Infection Model with General Incidence Rate and Distributed Delays.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ndongo, Abdoul Samba; Talibi Alaoui, Hamad

    2014-01-01

    In this work an HIV-1 infection model with nonlinear incidence rate and distributed intracellular delays and with humoral immunity is investigated. The disease transmission function is assumed to be governed by general incidence rate f(T, V)V. The intracellular delays describe the time between viral entry into a target cell and the production of new virus particles and the time between infection of a cell and the emission of viral particle. Lyapunov functionals are constructed and LaSalle invariant principle for delay differential equation is used to establish the global asymptotic stability of the infection-free equilibrium, infected equilibrium without B cells response, and infected equilibrium with B cells response. The results obtained show that the global dynamics of the system depend on both the properties of the general incidence function and the value of certain threshold parameters R 0 and R 1 which depends on the delays.

  7. Global Stability of an HIV-1 Infection Model with General Incidence Rate and Distributed Delays

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-01-01

    In this work an HIV-1 infection model with nonlinear incidence rate and distributed intracellular delays and with humoral immunity is investigated. The disease transmission function is assumed to be governed by general incidence rate f(T, V)V. The intracellular delays describe the time between viral entry into a target cell and the production of new virus particles and the time between infection of a cell and the emission of viral particle. Lyapunov functionals are constructed and LaSalle invariant principle for delay differential equation is used to establish the global asymptotic stability of the infection-free equilibrium, infected equilibrium without B cells response, and infected equilibrium with B cells response. The results obtained show that the global dynamics of the system depend on both the properties of the general incidence function and the value of certain threshold parameters R 0 and R 1 which depends on the delays. PMID:27355007

  8. Infectious diseases and global warming: Tracking disease incidence rates globally

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Low, N.C. [Low and Associates Actuary, Cerritos, CA (United States)

    1995-09-01

    Given the increasing importance of impact of global warming on public health, there is no global database system to monitor infectious disease and disease in general, and to which global data of climate change and environmental factors, such as temperature, greenhouse gases, and human activities, e.g., coastal development, deforestation, can be calibrated, investigated and correlated. The author proposes the diseases incidence rates be adopted as the basic global measure of morbidity of infectious diseases. The importance of a correctly chosen measure of morbidity of disease is presented. The importance of choosing disease incidence rates as the measure of morbidity and the mathematical foundation of which are discussed. The author further proposes the establishment of a global database system to track the incidence rates of infectious diseases. Only such a global system can be used to calibrate and correlate other globally tracked climatic, greenhouse gases and environmental data. The infrastructure and data sources for building such a global database is discussed.

  9. Nonlinearity degree of short-term heart rate variability signal

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    BIAN Chunhua; NING Xinbao

    2004-01-01

    A nonlinear autoregressive (NAR) model is built to model the heartbeat interval time series and the optimum model degree is proposed to be taken to evaluate the nonlinearity degree of heart rate variability (HRV). A group of healthy persons are studied and the results indicate that this method can effectively get nonlinear information from short (6-7 min) heartbeat series and consequently reflect the degree of heart rate variability, which supplies convenience in clinical application. Finally, a comparison with the traditional time domain method shows that the NAR model method can reflect the complexity of the whole signal and lessen the influence of noise and instability in the signal.

  10. Epidemiology of Eating Disorders : Incidence, Prevalence and Mortality Rates

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Smink, Frederique R. E.; van Hoeken, Daphne; Hoek, Hans W.

    2012-01-01

    Eating disorders are relatively rare among the general population. This review discusses the literature on the incidence, prevalence and mortality rates of eating disorders. We searched online Medline/Pubmed, Embase and PsycINFO databases for articles published in English using several keyterms rela

  11. Epidemiology of Eating Disorders : Incidence, Prevalence and Mortality Rates

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Smink, Frederique R. E.; van Hoeken, Daphne; Hoek, Hans W.

    Eating disorders are relatively rare among the general population. This review discusses the literature on the incidence, prevalence and mortality rates of eating disorders. We searched online Medline/Pubmed, Embase and PsycINFO databases for articles published in English using several keyterms

  12. Denominator effects on traumatic occupational fatality incidence rates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Biddle, E A; Kisner, S M

    1998-01-01

    Each year over 6,000 workers are killed while earning a living in the United States. From these deaths, how can researchers determine if employees in the manufacturing industry are at greater risk of a traumatic occupational fatality than those employed in agriculture or any other industry? Similarly, does the risk of traumatic occupational fatality differ among states? To answer such questions, two measurements are normally used: frequency of occurrence and incidence rate. These measures are used to identify worker groups at greatest risk of fatal injury, target research and prevention activities, and evaluate the impact of these activities. Developing the best methods to accurately identify worker groups at greatest risk of losing their life while at work is always important, but even more so in times of limited government resources. The accuracy of a traumatic occupational fatality incidence rate depends on how closely the denominator and numerator represent the same population. Selecting data from different employment programs for the denominator when calculating incidence rates using the National Traumatic Occupational Fatalities surveillance system for the numerator has shown dramatically different results. This analysis points out that researchers must carefully: choose the data they employ; evaluate the meaning of calculated incidence rates; and document the data sources to ensure proper interpretation by others. Additional research and evaluation are necessary to improve data sources, analytical methods and tools to ensure effective resource allocations for the occupational safety and health field.

  13. Epidemiology of Eating Disorders : Incidence, Prevalence and Mortality Rates

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Smink, Frederique R. E.; van Hoeken, Daphne; Hoek, Hans W.

    2012-01-01

    Eating disorders are relatively rare among the general population. This review discusses the literature on the incidence, prevalence and mortality rates of eating disorders. We searched online Medline/Pubmed, Embase and PsycINFO databases for articles published in English using several keyterms rela

  14. Traveling Wave Solutions for a Delayed SIRS Infectious Disease Model with Nonlocal Diffusion and Nonlinear Incidence

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiaohong Tian

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available A delayed SIRS infectious disease model with nonlocal diffusion and nonlinear incidence is investigated. By constructing a pair of upper-lower solutions and using Schauder's fixed point theorem, we derive the existence of a traveling wave solution connecting the disease-free steady state and the endemic steady state.

  15. Colorectal cancer incidence rates have decreased in central Italy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crocetti, Emanuele; Buzzoni, Carlotta; Zappa, Marco

    2010-11-01

    We analyzed colorectal cancer incidence data from the Tuscany Cancer Registry, central Italy, for the period 1985-2005. We carried out a trend analysis through a Joinpoint regression analysis, and summarized trends as annual percent change (APC) of the standardized (European standard) rates. Colorectal incidence rates increased until 1996 (APC=+1.4, 95% CI: 0.8-1.9), then decreased significantly (APC=-1.1, 95% CI: -0.8 to -0.4). The change was detected as statistically significant in the age group of 54+ years. Among younger individuals, we observed an increasing incidence until 2003. In the same geographical area, a colorectal screening programme has been active from 1982; it was initially based on guaiac faecal occult blood testing (GFOBT) and on immunological testing (IFOBT) since the mid 1990s. The decline in colorectal cancer incidence since 1996, in the whole population and especially among individuals older than 54 years, may suggest the effect of FOBT screening in terms of precancerous polyps removal.

  16. Nonlinear Control of Heart Rate Variability in Human Infants

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sugihara, George; Allan, Walter; Sobel, Daniel; Allan, Kenneth D.

    1996-03-01

    Nonlinear analyses of infant heart rhythms reveal a marked rise in the complexity of the electrocardiogram with maturation. We find that normal mature infants (gestation >= 35 weeks) have complex and distinctly nonlinear heart rhythms (consistent with recent reports for healthy adults) but that such nonlinearity is lacking in preterm infants (gestation parasympathetic-sympathetic interaction and function are presumed to be less well developed. Our study further shows that infants with clinical brain death and those treated with atropine exhibit a similar lack of nonlinear feedback control. These three lines of evidence support the hypothesis championed by Goldberger et al. [Goldberger, A. L., Rigney, D. R. & West, B. J. (1990) Sci. Am. 262, 43-49] that autonomic nervous system control underlies the nonlinearity and possible chaos of normal heart rhythms. This report demonstrates the acquisition of nonlinear heart rate dynamics and possible chaos in developing human infants and its loss in brain death and with the administration of atropine. It parallels earlier work documenting changes in the variability of heart rhythms in each of these cases and suggests that nonlinearity may provide additional power in characterizing physiological states.

  17. Intensity-dependent change in polarization state of light in normal incidence on an isotropic nonlinear Kerr medium

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Hari Prakash; Devendra K Singh

    2010-03-01

    It is shown that all optical polarization states of light except plane and circular polarization states undergo an intensity-dependent change in normal incidence of light in an isotropic nonlinear Kerr medium. This effect should be detectable and we propose an experiment for detecting nonlinear susceptibility involved in that part of nonlinear polarization, which depends on the polarization state of light also.

  18. Information mining in weighted complex networks with nonlinear rating projection

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liao, Hao; Zeng, An; Zhou, Mingyang; Mao, Rui; Wang, Bing-Hong

    2017-10-01

    Weighted rating networks are commonly used by e-commerce providers nowadays. In order to generate an objective ranking of online items' quality according to users' ratings, many sophisticated algorithms have been proposed in the complex networks domain. In this paper, instead of proposing new algorithms we focus on a more fundamental problem: the nonlinear rating projection. The basic idea is that even though the rating values given by users are linearly separated, the real preference of users to items between the different given values is nonlinear. We thus design an approach to project the original ratings of users to more representative values. This approach can be regarded as a data pretreatment method. Simulation in both artificial and real networks shows that the performance of the ranking algorithms can be improved when the projected ratings are used.

  19. Analysis of a novel stochastic SIRS epidemic model with two different saturated incidence rates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chang, Zhengbo; Meng, Xinzhu; Lu, Xiao

    2017-04-01

    This paper presents a stochastic SIRS epidemic model with two different nonlinear incidence rates and double epidemic asymmetrical hypothesis, and we devote to develop a mathematical method to obtain the threshold of the stochastic epidemic model. We firstly investigate the boundness and extinction of the stochastic system. Furthermore, we use Ito's formula, the comparison theorem and some new inequalities techniques of stochastic differential systems to discuss persistence in mean of two diseases on three cases. The results indicate that stochastic fluctuations can suppress the disease outbreak. Finally, numerical simulations about different noise disturbance coefficients are carried out to illustrate the obtained theoretical results.

  20. Modelling diseases with relapse and nonlinear incidence of infection: a multi-group epidemic model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Jinliang; Pang, Jingmei; Liu, Xianning

    2014-01-01

    In this paper, we introduce a basic reproduction number for a multi-group SIR model with general relapse distribution and nonlinear incidence rate. We find that basic reproduction number plays the role of a key threshold in establishing the global dynamics of the model. By means of appropriate Lyapunov functionals, a subtle grouping technique in estimating the derivatives of Lyapunov functionals guided by graph-theoretical approach and LaSalle invariance principle, it is proven that if it is less than or equal to one, the disease-free equilibrium is globally stable and the disease dies out; whereas if it is larger than one, some sufficient condition is obtained in ensuring that there is a unique endemic equilibrium which is globally stable and thus the disease persists in the population. Furthermore, our results suggest that general relapse distribution are not the reason of sustained oscillations. Biologically, our model might be realistic for sexually transmitted diseases, such as Herpes, Condyloma acuminatum, etc. PMID:24963980

  1. Modelling diseases with relapse and nonlinear incidence of infection: a multi-group epidemic model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Jinliang; Pang, Jingmei; Liu, Xianning

    2014-01-01

    In this paper, we introduce a basic reproduction number for a multi-group SIR model with general relapse distribution and nonlinear incidence rate. We find that basic reproduction number plays the role of a key threshold in establishing the global dynamics of the model. By means of appropriate Lyapunov functionals, a subtle grouping technique in estimating the derivatives of Lyapunov functionals guided by graph-theoretical approach and LaSalle invariance principle, it is proven that if it is less than or equal to one, the disease-free equilibrium is globally stable and the disease dies out; whereas if it is larger than one, some sufficient condition is obtained in ensuring that there is a unique endemic equilibrium which is globally stable and thus the disease persists in the population. Furthermore, our results suggest that general relapse distribution are not the reason of sustained oscillations. Biologically, our model might be realistic for sexually transmitted diseases, such as Herpes, Condyloma acuminatum, etc.

  2. Incidence trends and mortality rates of gastric cancer in Israel.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lavy, Ron; Kapiev, Andronik; Poluksht, Natan; Halevy, Ariel; Keinan-Boker, Lital

    2013-04-01

    Gastric cancer is the fourth most common malignancy worldwide. The incidence trends and mortality rates of gastric cancer in Israel have not been studied in depth. The aim of our study was to try and investigate the aforementioned issues in Israel in different ethnic groups. This retrospective study is based on the data of The Israel National Cancer Registry and The Central Bureau of Statistics. Published data from these two institutes were collected, summarized, and analyzed in this study. Around 650 new cases of gastric cancer are diagnosed yearly in Israel. While we noticed a decline during the period 1990-2007 in the incidence in the Jewish population (13.6-8.9 and 6.75-5.42 cases per 100,000 in Jewish men and women, respectively), an increase in the Arab population was noticed (7.7-10.2 and 3.7-4.2 cases per 100,000 in men and women, respectively). Age-adjusted mortality rates per 10,000 cases of gastric cancer decreased significantly, from 7.21 in 1990 to 5.46 in 2007, in the total population. The 5-year relative survival showed a slight increase for both men and women. There is a difference in the incidence and outcome of gastric cancer between the Jewish and Arab populations in Israel. The grim prognosis of gastric cancer patients in Israel is probably due to the advanced stage at which gastric cancer is diagnosed in Israel.

  3. The Nonlinear Landau Damping Rate of a Driven Plasma Wave

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Benisti, D; Strozzi, D J; Gremillet, L; Morice, O

    2009-08-04

    In this Letter, we discuss the concept of the nonlinear Landau damping rate, {nu}, of a driven electron plasma wave, and provide a very simple, practical, analytic formula for {nu} which agrees very well with results inferred from Vlasov simulations of stimulated Raman scattering. {nu} actually is more complicated an operator than a plain damping rate, and it may only be seen as such because it assumes almost constant values before abruptly dropping to 0. The decrease of {nu} to 0 is moreover shown to occur later when the wave amplitude varies in the direction transverse to its propagation.

  4. Influence of birth rates and transmission rates on the global seasonality of rotavirus incidence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pitzer, Virginia E; Viboud, Cécile; Lopman, Ben A; Patel, Manish M; Parashar, Umesh D; Grenfell, Bryan T

    2011-11-07

    Rotavirus is a major cause of mortality in developing countries, and yet the dynamics of rotavirus in such settings are poorly understood. Rotavirus is typically less seasonal in the tropics, although recent observational studies have challenged the universality of this pattern. While numerous studies have examined the association between environmental factors and rotavirus incidence, here we explore the role of intrinsic factors. By fitting a mathematical model of rotavirus transmission dynamics to published age distributions of cases from 15 countries, we obtain estimates of local transmission rates. Model-predicted patterns of seasonal incidence based solely on differences in birth rates and transmission rates are significantly correlated with those observed (Spearman's ρ = 0.65, p rates and transmission rates and explore how vaccination may impact these patterns. Our results suggest that the relative lack of rotavirus seasonality observed in many tropical countries may be due to the high birth rates and transmission rates typical of developing countries rather than being driven primarily by environmental conditions. While vaccination is expected to decrease the overall burden of disease, it may increase the degree of seasonal variation in the incidence of rotavirus in some settings.

  5. Lp-decay rates to nonlinear diffusion waves for p-system with nonlinear damping

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    ZHU Changjiang; JIANG Mina

    2006-01-01

    In this paper, we study the Lp (2 ≤ p ≤ +∞) convergence rates of the solutions to the Cauchy problem of the so-called p-system with nonlinear damping. Precisely, we show that the corresponding Cauchy problem admits a unique global solution (v(x,t),u(x,t)) and such a solution tends time-asymptotically to the corresponding nonlinear diffusion wave (-v(x, t), -u(x, t)) governed by the classical Darcy's law provided that the corresponding prescribed initial error function (w0(x), z0(x))lies in (H3 × H2) (R) and |v+ - v-| + ‖w0‖3 + ‖z0‖2 is sufficiently small.Furthermore, the Lp (2 ≤ p ≤ +∞) convergence rates of the solutions are also obtained.

  6. Incidence rate of injuries during sport activity and physical exercise in a rural Swedish municipality: incidence rates in 17 sports.

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Loës, M; Goldie, I

    1988-12-01

    A prospective study of acute injuries from sports and physical exercise was carried out during 1 year in a total population of a municipality with 31,620 inhabitants. Data on exposure were collected: the number of participants in each sport, the hours of participation, and number of weeks in the season per year. The number of injuries was used as numerator and the exposure data as denominator in a formula modified from Chambers for the calculation of population at risk in sports. A total of 571 injuries occurred in 28 different sports: 65% of the injured were males. The majority of the injuries were from soccer: 50% of the males and 27% of the females. Incidence rates in 17 sports are presented. The ranking order differs, when calculating not only the number, but also the exposure. Ice hockey and handball were then found to have the highest risk followed by soccer. Team and contact sports on the whole had the highest rates in both genders. As a group, intercompany players had the highest rate, especially in soccer. The lowest rates were found in individual sports such as downhill skiing, horseback riding, racket sports, and running. Gymnastics, except in school physical education, had no injuries at all. Sprains and strains were diagnosed in nearly half of the cases and the foot and ankle were the most frequent sites. Preventive measures are proposed.

  7. GLOBAL ASYMPTOTICAL PROPERTIES FOR A DIFFUSED HBV INFECTION MODEL WITH CTL IMMUNE RESPONSE AND NONLINEAR INCIDENCE

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Wang Shaoli; Feng Xinlong; He Yinnian

    2011-01-01

    This article proposes a diffused hepatitis B virus (HBV) model with CTLimmune response and nonlinear incidence for the control of viral infections.By means of different Lyapunov functions,the global asymptotical properties of the viral-free equilibrium and immune-free equilibrium of the model are obtained.Global stability of the positive equilibrium of the model is also considered.The results show that the free diffusion of the virus has no effect on the global stability of such HBV infection problem with Neumann homogeneous boundary conditions.

  8. An SIRS Epidemic Model with Vital Dynamics and a Ratio-Dependent Saturation Incidence Rate

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xinli Wang

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents an investigation on the dynamics of an epidemic model with vital dynamics and a nonlinear incidence rate of saturated mass action as a function of the ratio of the number of the infectives to that of the susceptibles. The stabilities of the disease-free equilibrium and the endemic equilibrium are first studied. Under the assumption of nonexistence of periodic solution, the global dynamics of the model is established: either the number of infective individuals tends to zero as time evolves or it produces bistability in which there is a region such that the disease will persist if the initial position lies in the region and disappears if the initial position lies outside this region. Computer simulation shows such results.

  9. A comparison of surveillance methods for small incidence rates

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sego, Landon H.; Woodall, William H.; Reynolds, Marion R.

    2008-05-15

    A number of methods have been proposed to detect an increasing shift in the incidence rate of a rare health event, such as a congenital malformation. Among these are the Sets method, two modifcations of the Sets method, and the CUSUM method based on the Poisson distribution. We consider the situation where data are observed as a sequence of Bernoulli trials and propose the Bernoulli CUSUM chart as a desirable method for the surveillance of rare health events. We compare the performance of the Sets method and its modifcations to the Bernoulli CUSUM chart under a wide variety of circumstances. Chart design parameters were chosen to satisfy a minimax criteria.We used the steady- state average run length to measure chart performance instead of the average run length which was used in nearly all previous comparisons involving the Sets method or its modifcations. Except in a very few instances, we found that the Bernoulli CUSUM chart has better steady-state average run length performance than the Sets method and its modifcations for the extensive number of cases considered.

  10. Linear and Nonlinear Heart Rate Variability Indexes in Clinical Practice

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Buccelletti Francesco

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Biological organisms have intrinsic control systems that act in response to internal and external stimuli maintaining homeostasis. Human heart rate is not regular and varies in time and such variability, also known as heart rate variability (HRV, is not random. HRV depends upon organism's physiologic and/or pathologic state. Physicians are always interested in predicting patient's risk of developing major and life-threatening complications. Understanding biological signals behavior helps to characterize patient's state and might represent a step toward a better care. The main advantage of signals such as HRV indexes is that it can be calculated in real time in noninvasive manner, while all current biomarkers used in clinical practice are discrete and imply blood sample analysis. In this paper HRV linear and nonlinear indexes are reviewed and data from real patients are provided to show how these indexes might be used in clinical practice.

  11. Analysis of the deterministic and stochastic SIRS epidemic models with nonlinear incidence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Qun; Chen, Qingmei

    2015-06-01

    In this paper, the deterministic and stochastic SIRS epidemic models with nonlinear incidence are introduced and investigated. For deterministic system, the basic reproductive number R0 is obtained. Furthermore, if R0 ≤ 1, then the disease-free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable and if R0 > 1, then there is a unique endemic equilibrium which is globally asymptotically stable. For stochastic system, to begin with, we verify that there is a unique global positive solution starting from the positive initial value. Then when R0 > 1, we prove that stochastic perturbations may lead the disease to extinction in scenarios where the deterministic system is persistent. When R0 ≤ 1, a result on fluctuation of the solution around the disease-free equilibrium of deterministic model is obtained under appropriate conditions. At last, if the intensity of the white noise is sufficiently small and R0 > 1, then there is a unique stationary distribution to stochastic system.

  12. Oxygen consumption of cycle ergometry is nonlinearly related to work rate and pedal rate.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Londeree, B R; Moffitt-Gerstenberger, J; Padfield, J A; Lottmann, D

    1997-06-01

    The purpose of the study was to develop an equation to predict the oxygen cost of cycle ergometry. Forty subjects performed an incremental cycle ergometer test on three occasions at 50, 70, or 90 rpm in a counterbalanced order. Work rate was incremented every 5 or 6 min when steady rate values were achieved. To ensure accurate work rates, ergometer resistance was calibrated and flywheel revolutions were electronically measured. Oxygen consumption was measured with a computer interfaced system which provided results every minute. Oxygen consumption (mL.min-1) was the dependent variable, and independent variables were work rate (WR in kgm.min-1), pedal rate (rpm), weight (Kg), and gender (males, 0; females, 1). The following nonlinear equation was selected; VO2 = 0.42.WR1.2 + 0.00061.rpm3 + 6.35.Wt + 0.1136.RPM50.WR-0.10144.RPM90-WR-52-Gender, R2 = 0.9961, Sy.x = 106 mL.min-1, where RPM50: 50 rpm = 1, and RPM90: 90 rpm = 1, else = 0. It was concluded that the oxygen cost of cycle ergometry is nonlinearly related to work rate and pedal rate, linearly related to weight, and that females use less oxygen for a particular work rate.

  13. High fall incidence and fracture rate in elderly dialysis patients

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Polinder-Bos, H. A.; Emmelot-Vonk, M. H.; Gansevoort, R. T.; Diepenbroek, A.; Gaillard, C. A. J. M.

    2014-01-01

    Background: Although it is recognised that the dialysis population is ageing rapidly, geriatric complications such as falls are poorly appreciated, despite the many risk factors for falls in this population. The objective of this study was to determine the incidence, complications and risk factors f

  14. A free boundary problem of a diffusive SIRS model with nonlinear incidence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cao, Jia-Feng; Li, Wan-Tong; Wang, Jie; Yang, Fei-Ying

    2017-04-01

    This paper is concerned with the spreading (persistence) and vanishing (extinction) of a disease which is characterized by a diffusive SIRS model with a bilinear incidence rate and free boundary. Through discussing the dynamics of a free boundary problem of an SIRS model, the spreading of a disease is described. We get the sufficient conditions which ensure the disease spreading or vanishing. In addition, the estimate of the expanding speed is also given when the free boundaries extend to the whole R.

  15. Trends of incidence and mortality rates of stroke from 1983 to 2000 in Hanzhong rural population

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    龙泳; 高保林; 张景霞; 杨军; 黄久仪; 胡继新; 徐德忠; 卢娟

    2003-01-01

    Objective: To explore the trends of incidence and mortality rates of stroke in Hanzhong rural population. Methods: Acting as the WHO MONICA project. Results: The incidence rate of stroke was 152.9/100 000. There was decline trend in male(P<0.05). The mortality rate of stroke was 115.9/100 000. There was no significant decline trend during 18-year period (P<0.05). The incidence and mortality rates of stroke of male were higher than those of female(P<0.05).The incidence and mortality rates were all increased with age(P<0.01). Conclusion: It must stick to the long- term prevention measures to decrease incidence rate, and improve the condition of medical treatment to reduce the mortality rate in rural population.

  16. Incidence rates of asthma, rhinitis and eczema symptoms and influential factors in young children in Sweden

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larsson, M.; Hagerhed-Engman, L.; Sigsgaard, T.

    2008-01-01

    period of breast-feeding. Allergic symptoms in parents were also a strong risk factor for incident asthma, as well as for rhinitis and eczema. Conclusion: When comparing incident rates of asthma between different studies it is important to realize that different definitions of the healthy baseline......Aim: To estimate the incidence rates for asthma, rhinitis and eczema symptoms and to investigate the importance of different influential factors for the incidence of these symptoms. Methods: The Dampness in Building and Health study commenced in the year 2000 in Varmland, Sweden with a parental...... study. Results: The 5-year incidence of doctor-diagnosed asthma was 4.9% (95% CI 4.3-5.3), rhinitis was 5.7% (5.0-6.4) and eczema was 13.4% (12.3-14.5). However, incidence rates strongly depend on the health status of the baseline population. Risk factors for incident asthma were male gender and short...

  17. Linear and Non-Linear Associations of Gonorrhea Diagnosis Rates with Social Determinants of Health

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hazel D. Dean

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available Identifying how social determinants of health (SDH influence the burden of disease in communities and populations is critically important to determine how to target public health interventions and move toward health equity. A holistic approach to disease prevention involves understanding the combined effects of individual, social, health system, and environmental determinants on geographic area-based disease burden. Using 2006–2008 gonorrhea surveillance data from the National Notifiable Sexually Transmitted Disease Surveillance and SDH variables from the American Community Survey, we calculated the diagnosis rate for each geographic area and analyzed the associations between those rates and the SDH and demographic variables. The estimated product moment correlation (PMC between gonorrhea rate and SDH variables ranged from 0.11 to 0.83. Proportions of the population that were black, of minority race/ethnicity, and unmarried, were each strongly correlated with gonorrhea diagnosis rates. The population density, female proportion, and proportion below the poverty level were moderately correlated with gonorrhea diagnosis rate. To better understand relationships among SDH, demographic variables, and gonorrhea diagnosis rates, more geographic area-based estimates of additional variables are required. With the availability of more SDH variables and methods that distinguish linear from non-linear associations, geographic area-based analysis of disease incidence and SDH can add value to public health prevention and control programs.

  18. Decreasing incidence rate for surgically treated middle ear cholesteatoma in Denmark 1977-2007

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Djurhuus, Bjarki Ditlev; Faber, Christian Emil; Skytthe, Axel

    2010-01-01

    The objective was to estimate the annual incidence rate of surgically treated middle ear cholesteatoma (STMEC) in Denmark from 1977 to 2007, taking age, gender and secular trends into consideration.......The objective was to estimate the annual incidence rate of surgically treated middle ear cholesteatoma (STMEC) in Denmark from 1977 to 2007, taking age, gender and secular trends into consideration....

  19. Urological complications after radical hysterectomy: Incidence rates and predisposing factors

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Likić-Lađević Ivana

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available Bacground/Aim. Radical hysterectomy is a surgical approach for stage Ib and IIa of cervical cancer. The incidence of intraoperative injuries of the bladder during radical hysterectomy ranges from 0.4-3.7%. The ureter can be crushed, caught in sutures, transsected, obstructed by angulation, or ischemic by the stippling or periureteric fascia. Vesicovaginal and ureterovaginal fistuls are reported to develop in 0.9-2% of patients after radical abdominal hysterectomy. Fistulas usually become manifested or visible at speculum examination within 14 days following the surgery. The aim of this study was to establish the incidence and predisposing factor of urological complications after radical hysterectomy. Methods. The study included a total of 536 patients with invasive stage Ib to IIb cancer of the cervix uteri who had underwent radical hysterectomy. The special elements considered were: the patient’s age; the International Federation of Ginecology and Obstetrics (FIGO stage after pathohistology; duration of operation; the result of preoperative laboratory tests for diabetes, anemia, hypoproteinemia, or disorders of liver or kidney function; ASA status; postoperative surgical infection. Results. The average age of the patients with complications was 48.68 years. All patients with intraoperative ureteric and bladder injuries had statisticaly significant higher stage of disease and operation lasted more than in others without injury. We noticed 1.3% ureteral injuries and 1.49% bladder injuries, more than 50% of the patients with a previously mentioned injuries were operated on more than 3 hours. We found 2.61% vesicovaginal and 2.43% ureterovaginal fistuls. A total of 50% of the patients with bladder injury and vesicovaginal fistuls and 70% of the patients with ureterovaginal fistuls had diabetes mellitus. Postoperative infection of surgical site is a very important factor for the development of fistule. Half of the patients with vesicovaginal

  20. Ciprofloxacin Resistance and Gonorrhea Incidence Rates in 17 Cities, United States, 1991–2006

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kirkcaldy, Robert D.; Gift, Thomas L.; Owusu-Edusei, Kwame; Weinstock, Hillard S.

    2014-01-01

    Antimicrobial drug resistance can hinder gonorrhea prevention and control efforts. In this study, we analyzed historical ciprofloxacin resistance data and gonorrhea incidence data to examine the possible effect of antimicrobial drug resistance on gonorrhea incidence at the population level. We analyzed data from the Gonococcal Isolate Surveillance Project and city-level gonorrhea incidence rates from surveillance data for 17 cities during 1991–2006. We found a strong positive association between ciprofloxacin resistance and gonorrhea incidence rates at the city level during this period. Their association was consistent with predictions of mathematical models in which resistance to treatment can increase gonorrhea incidence rates through factors such as increased duration of infection. These findings highlight the possibility of future increases in gonorrhea incidence caused by emerging cephalosporin resistance. PMID:24655615

  1. Soft Tissue Strain Rates in Side-Blast Incidents

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-11-02

    for Human Head Impacts. Proceedings ASME Biomechanics of Human Factors Conference. [22] Hannon P, Knapp K. 2006. Forensic Biomechanics. Lawyers...J, Song, B, Pintar, F, Yoganandan N, Chen W, Gennarelli TA. 2008. How to test brain and brain simulant at ballistic and blast strain rates. Rocky

  2. Cholesteatoma in Danish children - A national study of changes in the incidence rate over 34 years

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Djurhuus, Bjarki Ditlev; Skytthe, Axel; Christensen, Kaare;

    2015-01-01

    was examined using Poisson regression analysis, while the cumulative incidence proportion was estimated using life-tables. RESULTS: A total of 5850 cases of surgically treated middle ear cholesteatoma distributed among 3874 children aged 0-15 years were identified. From 1977 to 2002 the age...... of 5.4% (95% CI 3.2-7.5%). Age-specific incidence rates were at maximum around the age of 9 years during the whole period. The estimated cumulative incidence proportion at age 16 years based on the 2010 age-specific incidence rates was 0.16% (95% CI 0.09-0.32%) compared with 0.20% (95% CI 0...

  3. Stomach cancer incidence rates among Americans, Asian Americans and Native Asians from 1988 to 2011.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Yeerae; Park, Jinju; Nam, Byung-Ho; Ki, Moran

    2015-01-01

    Stomach cancer is the second most common cancer in Eastern Asia, accounting for approximately 50% of all new cases of stomach cancer worldwide. Our objective was to compare the stomach cancer incidence rates of Asian Americans in Los Angeles with those of native Asians to assess the etiology of stomach cancer from 1988 to 2011. To examine these differences, Asian Americans (Korean, Japanese, Chinese, and Filipino Americans living in Los Angeles, California, USA) and native Asians (from Korea, Japan, China, and the Philippines) were selected for this study. Using the Cancer Incidence in Five Continents database, stomach cancer incidence rates were examined. Data from the National Cancer Registry of Korea were used for native Koreans. Between native countries, the incidence rates in Japan, China, the Philippines, and the US declined over time, but the incidence in Korea has remained constant. The incidences among Asian immigrants were lower than those among native Asians. The incidence rates of males were approximately 2 times higher than those among females in Asian countries were. The effect of immigration on stomach cancer incidence suggests that lifestyle factors are a significant determinant of stomach cancer risk. However, the incidence in Korea remains the highest of these countries.

  4. Inverse Correlation between Heart Rate Variability and Heart Rate Demonstrated by Linear and Nonlinear Analysis.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Syed Zaki Hassan Kazmi

    Full Text Available The dynamical fluctuations in the rhythms of biological systems provide valuable information about the underlying functioning of these systems. During the past few decades analysis of cardiac function based on the heart rate variability (HRV; variation in R wave to R wave intervals has attracted great attention, resulting in more than 17000-publications (PubMed list. However, it is still controversial about the underling mechanisms of HRV. In this study, we performed both linear (time domain and frequency domain and nonlinear analysis of HRV data acquired from humans and animals to identify the relationship between HRV and heart rate (HR. The HRV data consists of the following groups: (a human normal sinus rhythm (n = 72; (b human congestive heart failure (n = 44; (c rabbit sinoatrial node cells (SANC; n = 67; (d conscious rat (n = 11. In both human and animal data at variant pathological conditions, both linear and nonlinear analysis techniques showed an inverse correlation between HRV and HR, supporting the concept that HRV is dependent on HR, and therefore, HRV cannot be used in an ordinary manner to analyse autonomic nerve activity of a heart.

  5. Influence of forced respiration on nonlinear dynamics in heart rate variability

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kanters, J K; Højgaard, M V; Agner, E;

    1997-01-01

    of this study was to test whether the known nonlinear input from spontaneous respiration is a source for the nonlinearities in heart rate variability. Twelve healthy subjects were examined in supine position with 3-h electrocardiogram recordings during both spontaneous and forced respiration in accordance...... expressed as the nonlinear prediction error did not differ between spontaneous respiration, 32.3 +/- 3.4 ms, and forced respiration, 31.9 +/- 5.7. It is concluded that the origin of the nonlinear dynamics in heart rate variability is not a nonlinear input from the respiration into the cardiovascular...... oscillator. Additional studies are needed to elucidate the mechanisms behind the nonlinear dynamics in heart rate variability....

  6. Short- and long-term variations in non-linear dynamics of heart rate variability

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kanters, J K; Højgaard, M V; Agner, E;

    1996-01-01

    OBJECTIVES: The purpose of the study was to investigate the short- and long-term variations in the non-linear dynamics of heart rate variability, and to determine the relationships between conventional time and frequency domain methods and the newer non-linear methods of characterizing heart rate...... variability. METHODS: Twelve healthy subjects were investigated by 3-h ambulatory ECG recordings repeated on 3 separate days. Correlation dimension, non-linear predictability, mean heart rate, and heart rate variability in the time and frequency domains were measured and compared with the results from...... corresponding surrogate time series. RESULTS: A small significant amount of non-linear dynamics exists in heart rate variability. Correlation dimensions and non-linear predictability are relatively specific parameters for each individual examined. The correlation dimension is inversely correlated to the heart...

  7. Ion Acceleration via "Nonlinear Vacuum Heating" by the Laser Pulse Obliquely Incident on a Thin Foil Target

    CERN Document Server

    Yogo, A; Mori, M; Ogura, K; Esirkepov, T Zh; Pirozhkov, A S; Kanasaki, M; Sakaki, H; Fukuda, Y; Bolton, P R; Nishimura, H; Kondo, K

    2015-01-01

    Dependence of the energy of ions accelerated during interaction of the laser pulse obliquelly incident on the thin foil target on the laser polarization is studied experimentally and theoretically. We found that the ion energy being maximal for the p-polarization gradually decreases when the pulse becomes s-polarized. The experimentally found dependences of the ion energy are explained by invoking the anomalous electron heating which results in high electrostatic potential formation at the target surface. Anomalous heating of electrons beyond the energy of quiver motion in the laser field is described within the framework of theoretical model of driven oscillator with a step-like nonlinearity. We have demonstrated that the electron anomalous heating can be realized in two regimes: nonlinear resonance and stochastic heating, depending on the extent of stochasticity. We have found the accelerated ion energy scaling determined by the laser intensity, pulse duration, polarization angle and incident angle.

  8. PRINCIPAL COMPONENT DECOMPOSITION BASED FINITE ELEMENT MODEL UPDATING FOR STRAIN-RATE-DEPENDENCE NONLINEAR DYNAMIC PROBLEMS

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    GUO Qintao; ZHANG Lingmi; TAO Zheng

    2008-01-01

    Thin wall component is utilized to absorb impact energy of a structure. However, the dynamic behavior of such thin-walled structure is highly non-linear with material, geometry and boundary non-linearity. A model updating and validation procedure is proposed to build accurate finite element model of a frame structure with a non-linear thin-walled component for dynamic analysis. Design of experiments (DOE) and principal component decomposition (PCD) approach are applied to extract dynamic feature from nonlinear impact response for correlation of impact test result and FE model of the non-linear structure. A strain-rate-dependent non-linear model updating method is then developed to build accurate FE model of the structure. Computer simulation and a real frame structure with a highly non-linear thin-walled component are employed to demonstrate the feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed approach.

  9. Rating and Classification of Incident Reporting in Radiology in a Large Academic Medical Center.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mansouri, Mohammad; Aran, Shima; Shaqdan, Khalid W; Abujudeh, Hani H

    2016-01-01

    The purpose of this article is to provide a rate of safety incident report of adverse events in a large academic radiology department and to share the various types that may occur. This is a Health Insurance Portability and Accountability Act compliant, institutional review board-approved study. Consent requirement was waived. All incident reports from April 2006-September 2012 were retrieved. Events were further classified as follows: diagnostic test orders, identity document or documentation or consent, safety or security or conduct, service coordination, surgery or procedure, line or tube, fall, medication or intravenous safety, employee general incident, environment or equipment, adverse drug reaction (ADR), skin or tissue, and diagnosis or treatment. Overall rates and subclassification rates were calculated. There were 10,224 incident reports and 4,324,208 radiology examinations (rate = 0.23%). The highest rates of the incident reports were due to diagnostic test orders (34.3%; 3509/10,224), followed by service coordination (12.2%; 1248/10,224) and ADR (10.3%; 1052/4,324,208). The rate of incident reporting was highest in inpatient (0.30%; 2949/970,622), followed by emergency radiology (0.22%; 1500/672,958) and outpatient (0.18%; 4957/2,680,628). Approximately 48.5% (4947/10,202) of incidents had no patient harm and did not affect the patient, followed by no patient harm, but did affect the patient (35.2%, 3589/10,202), temporary or minor patient harm (15.5%, 1584/10,202), permanent or major patient harm (0.6%, 62/10,202), and patient death (0.2%, 20/10,202). Within an academic radiology department, the rate of incident reports was only 0.23%, usually did not harm the patient, and occurred at higher rates in inpatients. The most common incident type was in the category of diagnostic test orders, followed by service coordination, and ADRs.

  10. Incidence rates of the major leukemia subtypes among US Hispanics, Blacks, and non-Hispanic Whites.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matasar, Matthew J; Ritchie, Ellen K; Consedine, Nathan; Magai, Carol; Neugut, Alfred I

    2006-11-01

    While leukemia rates are thought to be lower in South and Central America, no study has systematically investigated incidence rates of the leukemia subtypes among Hispanics in the U.S. This was a retrospective cohort study, using data from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) Program of the National Cancer Institute, 1992 - 2001, to compare leukemia incidence rates as a function of race and ethnicity. It was found that in adults, Hispanics had lower incidence rates for each of the major types of leukemia as compared to non-Hispanic Whites: For AML, elderly Whites had an incidence rate ratio (IRR) of 1.61 in comparison to Hispanics (p < 0.001) and 1.27 in comparison to Blacks (p < 0.001); for CML, the IRR among the elderly was 1.42 that of Hispanics (p < 0.001) and 1.22 that of Blacks (p = 0.003); and for CLL, the IRR was 2.31 times that of Hispanics (p < 0.001) and 1.48 times that of Blacks (p < 0.001). In ALL, however, Hispanics aged 0 - 19 had a significantly higher incidence rate than Whites and Blacks, with an IRR of 1.32 compared to Whites (p < 0.001), and 2.62 compared to Blacks (p < 0.001). In AML, CML, and CLL, among people age 65 or older, white non-Hispanics have higher incidence rates than Blacks, and Blacks have higher incidence rates than Hispanics. Childhood ALL incidence rates are highest among Hispanics, and lowest among Blacks.

  11. Age-adjusted cancer incidence rates by county and year, 1999-2009

    Data.gov (United States)

    California Environmental Health Tracking Program — This dataset contains age-adjusted incidence rates for 26 malignancy/age group/gender combinations for the years 1999-2009. These data are stratified by year and...

  12. SIVS EPIDEMIC MODELS WITH INFECTION AGE AND NONLINEAR VACCINATION RATE

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2010-01-01

    Vaccination is a very important strategy for the elimination of infectious diseaVaccination is a very important strategy for the elimination of infectious diseases. A SIVS epidemic model with infection age and nonlinear vaccination has been formulated in this paper. Using the theory of differential and integral equation, we show the local asymptotic stability of the infection-free equilibrium and the endemic equilibrium under some assumptions.

  13. Relationship of Remote Sensing Normalized Differential Vegetation Index to Anopheles Density and Malaria Incidence Rate

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2006-01-01

    To study the relationship of remote sensing normalized differential vegetation index (NDVI) to Anopheles density and malaria incidence rate. Methods Data of monthly average climate, environment, Anopheles density and malaria incidence rate, and remote sensing NDVI were collected from 27 townships of 10 counties in southeastern Yunnan Province from 1984 to 1993. The relationship of remote sensing ecological proxy index, NDVI, to Anopheles density and malaria incidence rate was studied by principal component analysis, factor analysis and grey correlation analysis. Results The correlation matrix showed that NDVI highly correlated with Anopheles density in 4 townships of Mengla, Jinghong, and Yuanjiang counties, but in other 23 townships the relationship was not clear. Principal component and factor analyses showed that remote sensing NDVI was the representative index of the first principal component and the first common factor of Anopheles density evaluation. Grey correlation analysis showed that in rainy season NDVI had a high grey correlation with Anopheles density and malaria incidence rate. The grey correlation analysis showed that in rainy season the grey degree of NDVI correlated with Anopheles. Minimus density was 0.730, and 0.713 with Anopheles sinensis density, and 0.800 with malarial incidence rate. Conclusion Remote sensing NDVI can serve as a sensitive evaluation index of Anopheles density and malaria incidence rate.

  14. Effects, determination, and correction of count rate nonlinearity in multi-channel analog electron detectors

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Reber, T. J.; Plumb, N. C.; Waugh, J. A.; Dessau, D. S. [Department of Physics, University of Colorado, Boulder, Colorado 80309-0390 (United States)

    2014-04-15

    Detector counting rate nonlinearity, though a known problem, is commonly ignored in the analysis of angle resolved photoemission spectroscopy where modern multichannel electron detection schemes using analog intensity scales are used. We focus on a nearly ubiquitous “inverse saturation” nonlinearity that makes the spectra falsely sharp and beautiful. These artificially enhanced spectra limit accurate quantitative analysis of the data, leading to mistaken spectral weights, Fermi energies, and peak widths. We present a method to rapidly detect and correct for this nonlinearity. This algorithm could be applicable for a wide range of nonlinear systems, beyond photoemission spectroscopy.

  15. Prostate cancer incidence rates have started to decrease in central Italy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crocetti, Emanuele; Ciatto, Stefano; Buzzoni, Carlotta; Zappa, Marco

    2010-01-01

    The widespread use of prostate-specific antigen (PSA) testing has dramatically changed the epidemiology of prostate cancer. Growing incidence rates have been documented in almost all western countries following the increased usage of PSA screening. In the United States after a period of huge increase in incidence, rates have decreased to values lower than those of the pre-PSA era. Similar changes have been documented also in the area of the Tuscany Cancer Registry, central Italy, where prostate cancer incidence rates doubled from the early 1990s to 2003 and afterwards decreased. This is the first evidence, to our knowledge, of a decline in prostate cancer incidence in Italy following the screening-related increase.

  16. Nonlinear Snell law for grazing incidence along interfaces with discontinuous second-order susceptibilities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Xiaohui; Zheng, Yuanlin; Ren, Huaijin; An, Ning; Deng, Xuewei; Chen, Xianfeng

    2017-04-01

    In this article, we demonstrate that the angles at which second-harmonic (SH) waves are generated at ferroelectric domain walls satisfy the Snell law for nonlinear media. Nonlinear reflection and refraction are observed experimentally and the relation is found to be in good agreement with theoretical predictions. The ratio of the intensities of refracted and reflected waves has been measured. Under an anomalous-dispersion-like condition, the forbidden nonlinear reflection and refraction is analyzed and found to have a behavior similar to that of the total internal reflection in linear optics. In the periodic domain structure, the coherent superposition of SH waves has been observed, on the basis of which we have proposed a comprehensive theory to explain nonlinear effects in multilayered structures.

  17. The incidence rate of cancer in patients with schizophrenia: A meta-analysis of cohort studies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Hailong; Li, Jiasi; Yu, Xiya; Zheng, Huiwen; Sun, Xu; Lu, Yue; Zhang, Yanbo; Li, Chunbo; Bi, Xiaoying

    2017-09-21

    Numerous studies report that cancer prevalence in patients with schizophrenia might be different from the general population, but findings remain controversial. Our updated meta-analysis of cohort studies aims to analyze the data from cohort studies concerning the incidence risk of overall cancer and some site-specific cancers in patients with schizophrenia. We performed a systemic search through electronic databases. Cohort studies evaluating and describing the cancer incidence among patients with schizophrenia were included. Pooled risk ratios (RRs) were calculated for assessing the incidence risk of cancer. There were 16 cohort studies included in this meta-analysis, which combined a total of 480,356 participants with schizophrenia and 41,999 cases of cancer. Results showed that there was a slight significant decreased overall risk ratio of cancer incidence among patients with schizophrenia (RR=0.90, 95% CI 0.81-0.99). When stratified by cancer site and gender, there were significant decreased incidence risk rates of colorectal cancer (RR=0.82, 95% CI 0.69-0.98) and prostate cancer (RR=0.55, 95% CI 0.42-0.71) in those patients, moreover, the incidence rate of colorectal cancer decreased significantly in male patients (RR=0.89, 95% CI 0.81-0.98), and the incidence rate of lung cancer increased significantly in female patients (RR=1.12, 95% CI 1.01-1.25). The incidence risk of some cancers was reduced in patients with schizophrenia. Gender and type of cancer were two important confounding factors contributed to the heterogeneity that required adjustment in our cancer incidence meta-analysis. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  18. Dynamic detection of a single bacterium: nonlinear rotation rate shifts of driven magnetic microsphere stages

    CERN Document Server

    McNaughton, B H; Kopelman, R; Agayan, Rodney R.; Kopelman, Raoul; Naughton, Brandon H. Mc

    2006-01-01

    We report on a new technique which was used to detect single Escherichia coli that is based on the changes in the nonlinear rotation of a magnetic microsphere driven by an external magnetic field. The presence of one Escherichia Coli bacterium on the surface of a 2.0 micron magnetic microsphere caused an easily measurable change in the drag of the system and, therefore, in the nonlinear rotation rate. The straight-forward measurement uses standard microscopy techniques and the observed average shift in the nonlinear rotation rate changed by a factor of ~3.8.

  19. ENT problems in Dutch children: Trends in incidence rates, antibiotic prescribing and referrals 2002–2008

    Science.gov (United States)

    Uijen, Johannes Hjm; Bindels, Patrick Je; Schellevis, François G.; van der Wouden, Johannes C.

    2011-01-01

    Background Ear, nose, and throat (ENT) problems are common in childhood and are important reasons to visit the general practitioner. Objective To examine trends in incidence rates, antibiotic prescribing, and referrals of five common ENT problems in children. Design Netherlands Information Network of General Practice (LINH), a nationally representative general practice database. Setting A total of 50 000 children, aged 0–17 years, registered in Dutch general practice over the period 2002–2008. Methods Incidence rates were calculated and trends were analysed using linear regression analysis, with incidence rates per age group, proportion treated with antibiotics, and referrals as dependent variables and year of observation as independent variable. Results In general, incidence rates of acute otitis media, serous otitis, sinusitis, tonsillitis, and tonsil hypertrophy remained stable over the period 2002–2008. An increasing trend was observed for serous otitis media in children aged 0–4 years (RR = 1.04, p 80% of cases. Conclusions This study showed remarkably stable trends in incidence rates, antibiotic prescribing, and referrals of common ENT problems. The low proportion of antibiotic treatment in ENT problems did not show negative consequences. PMID:21591837

  20. Prevalence and incidence rate of injuries in runners at a local athletic club in Cape Town

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. Hendricks

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available People across the world are running on a daily basis to improvetheir health status. However, running can predispose an individual to injuryto the back and lower limb. Baseline data on prevalence, incidence rate ofinjury and aetiological factors associated with running injuries are neededby physiotherapists to develop and implement effective prevention programmesto allow optimal performance in runners. Thus, the purpose of this study wasto determine the prevalence and incidence of injuries in runners at a localathletic club.Methods: A prospective, non-experimental cohort study was conductedover a 16 week period. A sample of 50 runners completed a self-administeredquestionnaire and an injury report form recording injuries sustained during the 16 week study period. Injury prevalence andcumulative incidence was calculated as a proportion rate along with 95% confidence interval.Results: The prevalence rate of injuries was 32%. The incidence rate of injuries was 0.67 per 1000km run (95% CI: 0.41- 1.08.The most common anatomical sites for new injuries were the calf (20% and the knee (18%.Conclusions: The study found a moderate prevalence and incidence rate of injury in runners, thus the need for physiotherapyledinjury surveillance and prevention programmes have been highlighted.

  1. Exercise Heart Rate Reserve and Recovery as Predictors of Incident Type 2 Diabetes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jae, Sae Young; Kurl, Sudhir; Laukkanen, Jari A; Zaccardi, Francesco; Choi, Yoon-Ho; Fernhall, Bo; Carnethon, Mercedes; Franklin, Barry A

    2016-05-01

    We tested the hypothesis that selected exercise heart rate responses, specifically those providing indices of autonomic dysfunction, may be associated with incident type 2 diabetes in 2231 apparently healthy men with normal baseline fasting glucose levels. Heart rate reserve was calculated as the difference between the maximal attained heart rate and the supine resting heart rate, whereas heart rate recovery was defined as the maximal heart rate minus the heart rate measured at 2 minutes of recovery after peak or symptom-limited cardiopulmonary exercise testing. Type 2 diabetes was defined as glycated hemoglobin >6.5% or fasting plasma glucose >126 mg/dL at the follow-up examination. During a median follow-up interval of 5 years, 90 of the 2231 men (4.0%) developed type 2 diabetes. The relative risks of incident type 2 diabetes in men within the lowest quartiles of heart rate reserve and heart rate recovery versus men comprising the highest quartiles of heart rate reserve and heart rate recovery were 2.71 (95% confidence interval, 1.20-6.11) and 2.81 (95% confidence interval, 1.36-5.78) after adjusting for potential confounding variables. Each unit increment (1 beat/min) in heart rate reserve and heart rate recovery was associated with a 2% to 3% decreased incidence of type 2 diabetes. Exercise heart rate reserve and recovery predicted incidence of type 2 diabetes in healthy men, suggesting that autonomic dysfunction may be associated with an increased likelihood for the development of this cardiometabolic risk factor. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  2. Influence of heart rate in nonlinear HRV indices as a sampling rate effect evaluated on supine and standing

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Juan Bolea

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of this study is to characterize and attenuate the influence of mean heart rate (HR on nonlinear heart rate variability (HRV indices (correlation dimension, sample and approximate entropy as a consequence of being the HR the intrinsic sampling rate of HRV signal. This influence can notably alter nonlinear HRV indices and lead to biased information regarding autonomic nervous system (ANS modulation.First, a simulation study was carried out to characterize the dependence of nonlinear HRV indices on HR assuming similar ANS modulation. Second, two HR-correction approaches were proposed: one based on regression formulas and another one based on interpolating RR time series. Finally, standard and HR-corrected HRV indices were studied in a body position change database.The simulation study showed the HR-dependence of non-linear indices as a sampling rate effect, as well as the ability of the proposed HR-corrections to attenuate mean HR influence. Analysis in a body position changes database shows that correlation dimension was reduced around 21% in median values in standing with respect to supine position (p < 0.05, concomitant with a 28% increase in mean HR (p < 0.05. After HR-correction, correlation dimension decreased around 18% in standing with respect to supine position, being the decrease still significant. Sample and approximate entropy showed similar trends.HR-corrected nonlinear HRV indices could represent an improvement in their applicability as markers of ANS modulation when mean HR changes.

  3. Epidemiology of Pelvic Fractures in Germany: Considerably High Incidence Rates among Older People.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andrich, Silke; Haastert, Burkhard; Neuhaus, Elke; Neidert, Kathrin; Arend, Werner; Ohmann, Christian; Grebe, Jürgen; Vogt, Andreas; Jungbluth, Pascal; Rösler, Grit; Windolf, Joachim; Icks, Andrea

    2015-01-01

    Epidemiological data about pelvic fractures are limited. Until today, most studies only analyzed inpatient data. The purpose of this study was to estimate incidence rates of pelvic fractures in the German population aged 60 years or older, based on outpatient and inpatient data. We conducted a retrospective population-based observational study based on routine data from a large health insurance company in Germany. Age and sex-specific incidence rates of first fractures between 2008 and 2011 were calculated. We also standardized incidence rates with respect to age and sex in the German population. Multiple Poisson regression models were used to evaluate the association between the risk of first pelvic fracture as outcome and sex, age, calendar year and region as independent variables. The total number of patients with a first pelvic fracture corresponded to 8,041 and during the study period 5,978 insured persons needed inpatient treatment. Overall, the standardized incidence rate of all first pelvic fractures was 22.4 [95% CI 22.0-22.9] per 10,000 person-years, and the standardized incidence rate of inpatient treated fractures 16.5 [16.1-16.9]. Our adjusted regression analysis confirmed a significant sex (RR 2.38 [2.23-2.55], p year (higher risk in later years compared to 2008, p = 0.0162) and first fracture risk and a further significant association with region (RR 0.92 [0.87-0.98], p = 0.006, Westfalen-Lippe as reference). The observed incidences are considerably higher than incidences described in the international literature, even if only inpatient treated pelvic fractures are regarded. Besides which, non-inclusion of outpatient data means that a relevant proportion of pelvic fractures are not taken into account. Prevention of low energy trauma among older people remains an important issue.

  4. RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN THE INCIDENCE RATES OF TESTICULAR AND PROSTATIC CANCERS AND FOOD CONSUMPTIONS

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    李湘鸣; 刘秀梵; 佐藤·章夫

    2002-01-01

    Objective: To determine the relationships between the incidence rates of testicular and prostatic cancers and food consumptions in order to study the etiologic cause and the mechanism of the development of male genital organ cancer. Methods: The incidence rates of testicular and prostatic cancers in 42 countries (region) were correlated with the dietary practices in these countries. These data came from the cancer rate database (1988-1992) and the food supply database (1961-1990) provided by the Department of Environmental Health, Medical University of Yamanashi, Japan. Results: The incidence rates of testicular and prostatic cancers varied greatly from country to country but in China the rates of the both malignancies were lower than that of USA and Japan. This may be due to the difference in lifestyle, especially in dietary practices. Among the food items weexamined, cheese was most closely correlated with the incidence of testicular cancer at ages 20-39, followed by animal fats and milk. The correlation coefficient (r) was the highest (r= 0.804) when calculated for cheese consumed during the period of 1961-1965 (maternal or prepubertal consumption). Stepwise- multiple-regression analysis revealed that cheese (1961-1965) made a significant contribution to the incidence of testicular cancer. Multiple coefficient ( r) is 0.920. As far as prostatic cancer was concerned, milk was most closely correlated (r=0.711) with its incidence, followed by meat and coffee. Stepwise-multiple-regression analysis identified milk, meat, butter and coffee as significant factors contributing to the incidence of prostatic cancer (R=0.993).The results of our study suggest a role of milk and dairy practices in the development of testicular and prostatic cancers.

  5. Daylight savings time transitions and the incidence rate of unipolar depressive episodes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Bertel T; Sønderskov, Kim M; Hageman, Ida

    2016-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Daylight savings time transitions affect approximately 1.6 billion people worldwide. Prior studies have documented associations between daylight savings time transitions and adverse health outcomes, but it remains unknown whether they also cause an increase in the incidence rate...... of depressive episodes. This seems likely because daylight savings time transitions affect circadian rhythms, which are implicated in the etiology of depressive disorder. Therefore, we investigated the effects of daylight savings time transitions on the incidence rate of unipolar depressive episodes. METHODS......: Using time series intervention analysis of nationwide data from the Danish Psychiatric Central Research Register from 1995 to 2012 we compared the observed trend in the incidence rate of hospital contacts for unipolar depressive episodes after the transitions to and from summer time to the predicted...

  6. Exchange Rates and Monetary Fundamentals: What Do We Learn from Linear and Nonlinear Regressions?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Guangfeng Zhang

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper revisits the association between exchange rates and monetary fundamentals with the focus on both linear and nonlinear approaches. With the monthly data of Euro/US dollar and Japanese yen/US dollar, our linear analysis demonstrates the monetary model is a long-run description of exchange rate movements, and our nonlinear modelling suggests the error correction model describes the short-run adjustment of deviations of exchange rates, and monetary fundamentals are capable of explaining exchange rate dynamics under an unrestricted framework.

  7. Declining rates of hepatocellular carcinoma in urban Shanghai: incidence trends in 1976-2005.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gao, Shan; Yang, Wan-Shui; Bray, Freddie; Va, Puthiery; Zhang, Wei; Gao, Jing; Xiang, Yong-Bing

    2012-01-01

    In China, hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) incidence rates in several registry catchment populations are amongst the highest worldwide. The incidence rates in urban Shanghai were analyzed between 1976 and 2005 to describe and interpret the time trends. Age-specific and age-standardized rates were calculated and graphically presented. An age-period-cohort model was fitted to assess the effects of age at diagnosis, calendar period, and birth cohort on the changing HCC incidence rates. In total, 35,241 and 13,931 men and women were diagnosed with HCC during 1976-2005 in urban Shanghai. The age-standardized incidence rates in urban Shanghai were 33.9 per 10(5) among men and 11.4 per 10(5) among women in 1976-1980, but decreased in both sexes to 25.8 per 10(5) and 8.5 per 10(5), respectively by 2001-2005. Accelerating rates in birth cohorts born in the early-1930s and decelerating rates circa 1945 were observed in both sexes, with further accelerations noted in the late-1950s (in women) and early-1960s (in men). Given the parameterization, increases in risk of HCC were seen in successive male and female generations between 1900 and 1935, followed by a further increase among successive cohorts born around 1960, with a reduction in risk in the most recent generations. The incidence rates of HCC in urban Shanghai from 1976 to 2005 have declined in both sexes, with the complex but similar patterns observed in successive generations suggestive of a shared changing prevalence in risk factors in men and women, with a role possibly for HBV interventions reducing risk of HCC in cohorts born after 1960.

  8. Cancer incidence rate ratios of Turkish immigrants in Hamburg, Germany: A registry based study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spallek, Jacob; Arnold, Melina; Hentschel, Stefan; Razum, Oliver

    2009-12-01

    The aim of this study was to estimate cancer incidence rate ratios for Turkish migrants in Hamburg, Germany. We used a name-based approach and identified 1346 cases with Turkish names (as a proxy of Turkish origin) among 140,249 cases of cancer registered in the cancer registry Hamburg during 1990-2005. To estimate the size of the denominator population, we applied the name-based approach to the population of Hamburg as well. The cancer incidence of specific cancer sites was compared between Turkish and non-Turkish cases using incidence rate ratios (IRR), stratified by gender and birth cohort. Our main findings are that cancer of the respiratory organs is diagnosed less frequent among Turkish men in older birth cohorts but with higher frequency in the younger birth cohorts. Malignant neoplasms of lymphoid, haematopoietic and related tissues are slightly higher in most male Turkish men birth cohorts, and even considerably higher for the birth cohort 1961 to <1971 (IRR=1.8). Among women, incidence rates for Turkish women are lower than for non-Turkish women for cancer of the respiratory system, skin cancer and cancer of genital organs. Also, breast cancer incidence rates of Turkish women are lower than for non-Turkish women, especially in older birth cohorts. Incidence rate ratios of neoplasms of lymphoid, haematopoietic and related tissues are low in the 1931 to <1941 cohort (IRR=0.71) but increase in younger birth cohorts. In conclusion, we found differences in cancer risks between cases with and without Turkish names for specific cancer sites. These results are consistent with the findings of studies from other countries.

  9. Nonlinearity and fractional integration in the US dollar/euro exchange rate

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kiran Burcu

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper examines the nonlinear behavior and the fractional integration property of the US dollar/euro exchange rate over the period from January 1999 to August 2010 by extending the procedure of Peter M. Robinson (1994 to the case of nonlinearity. First, using the approach developed by Mehmet Caner and Bruce E. Hansen (2001, we investigate the possible presence of nonlinearity in the series through the estimation of a two-regime threshold autoregressive model. After finding nonlinearity, we also allow for disturbances to be fractionally integrated based on the different versions of Robinson (1994 tests. The findings show that the US dollar/euro exchange rate follows a stationary process with a weak evidence for long memory.

  10. A comparison of hip fracture incidence rates among elderly in Sweden by latitude and sunlight exposure.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nilson, Finn; Moniruzzaman, Syed; Andersson, Ragnar

    2014-03-01

    Research has shown that hip fracture risk increases with latitude; hypothetically due to reduced sunlight exposure and its effect on bone quality. Sweden, with large differences in latitude and UV radiation, is ideal to study in order to analyse the association between latitude and UV radiation on age- and sex-specific hip fracture rates among elderly. Aggregated (2006-2008) age- and sex-specific hip fracture data was obtained for each Swedish municipality as well as the municipality's latitudinal coordinates and aggregated (2006-2008) UV radiation levels. Pearson correlations were calculated between hip fracture incidence rates, latitude and UV radiation. Independent t tests were calculated on tertile-categorized latitudinal data in order to investigate the difference in hip fracture risk between these categories. Statistically significant correlations were seen in all groups between hip fracture incidence rates and latitude as well as UV radiation. The independent t tests showed that this correlation was mainly due to high incidence rates in high latitude municipalities. Statistically significant correlations are seen between hip fracture incidence rates and latitude as well as UV radiation in Sweden and the northern parts of Sweden have an increased risk of hip fractures compared to the middle and southern parts. To our knowledge this is the first study using a national discharge register that shows this relationship and provides a starting point for further research to investigate why populations in northern Sweden have a higher risk of hip fractures compared to other Swedish regions.

  11. Forecasting RMB Exchange Rate Based on a Nonlinear Combination Model of ARFIMA, SVM, and BPNN

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chi Xie

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available There are various models to predict financial time series like the RMB exchange rate. In this paper, considering the complex characteristics of RMB exchange rate, we build a nonlinear combination model of the autoregressive fractionally integrated moving average (ARFIMA model, the support vector machine (SVM model, and the back-propagation neural network (BPNN model to forecast the RMB exchange rate. The basic idea of the nonlinear combination model (NCM is to make the prediction more effective by combining different models’ advantages, and the weight of the combination model is determined by a nonlinear weighted mechanism. The RMB exchange rate against US dollar (RMB/USD and the RMB exchange rate against Euro (RMB/EUR are used as the empirical examples to evaluate the performance of NCM. The results show that the prediction performance of the nonlinear combination model is better than the single models and the linear combination models, and the nonlinear combination model is suitable for the prediction of the special time series, such as the RMB exchange rate.

  12. Oral cancer incidence and survival rates in the Republic of Ireland, 1994-2009.

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    Ali, Hala

    2016-12-20

    Oral cancer is a significant public health problem world-wide and exerts high economic, social, psychological, and physical burdens on patients, their families, and on their primary care providers. We set out to describe the changing trends in incidence and survival rates of oral cancer in Ireland between 1994 and 2009.

  13. ENT problems in Dutch Children: Trends in incidence rates, antibiotic prescribing and referrals 2002-2008

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    J.H.J.M. Uijen (Hans); P.J.E. Bindels (Patrick); F.G. Schellevis (François); J.C. van der Wouden (Hans)

    2011-01-01

    textabstractBackground. Ear, nose, and throat (ENT) problems are common in childhood and are important reasons to visit the general practitioner. Objective. To examine trends in incidence rates, antibiotic prescribing, and referrals of five common ENT problems in children. Design. Netherlands Inform

  14. ENT problems in Dutch children: trends in incidence rates, antibiotic prescribing and referrals 2002-2008.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Uijen, J.H.J.M.; Bindels, P.J.E.; Schellevis, F.G.; Wouden, J.C. van der

    2011-01-01

    BACKGROUND. Ear, nose, and throat (ENT) problems are common in childhood and are important reasons to visit the general practitioner. OBJECTIVE. To examine trends in incidence rates, antibiotic prescribing, and referrals of five common ENT problems in children. DESIGN. Netherlands Information Networ

  15. Incidence rates of atopic dermatitis, asthma, and allergic rhinoconjunctivitis in Danish and Swedish children

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Stokholm, Lonny Merete; Simonsen, Jacob; Haerskjold, Ann;

    2015-01-01

    national registers, we sought to establish up-to-date incidence rates of atopic dermatitis, asthma, and allergic rhinoconjunctivitis in the Danish and Swedish child populations. METHODS: Children born in Denmark from 1997 to 2011 or born in Sweden from 2006 to 2010 participated in this cross...

  16. Results on stabilization of nonlinear systems under finite data-rate constraints

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Persis, Claudio De

    2004-01-01

    We discuss in this paper a result concerning the stabilization problem of nonlinear systems under data-rate constraints using output feedback. To put the result in a broader context, we shall first review a number of recent contributions on the stabilization problem under data-rate constraints when

  17. Use of a claims database to characterize and estimate the incidence rate for Castleman disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Munshi, Nikhil; Mehra, Maneesha; van de Velde, Helgi; Desai, Avinash; Potluri, Ravi; Vermeulen, Jessica

    2015-05-01

    Castleman disease (CD) is a rare lymphoproliferative disorder affecting single (unicentric; UCD) or multiple (multicentric; MCD) lymph nodes. The incidence of this difficult to diagnose disease is poorly understood, as no International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Revision (ICD-9) code is available. This study utilized a unique strategy to estimate its incidence using two commercial claims databases, IMS LifeLink™ and Truven Health Analytics MarketScan(®). Patients with an index diagnosis of lymphadenopathy (ICD-9 code 785.6) were followed longitudinally for 1 year prior to and 2 years post-index diagnosis date. An algorithm that identifies potential patients with CD was developed to determine the incidence rate in person-years. The incidence rate for CD was calculated as 21 (IMS LifeLink™) and 25 (MarketScan(®)) per million person-years. Additionally, 23% of patients with CD were identified as potentially suffering from MCD. These results are consistent with the definition of an orphan disease, and the low incidence of the disease estimated in the literature.

  18. Association of arsenic exposure with lung cancer incidence rates in the United States.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Joseph J Putila

    Full Text Available Although strong exposure to arsenic has been shown to be carcinogenic, its contribution to lung cancer incidence in the United States is not well characterized. We sought to determine if the low-level exposures to arsenic seen in the U.S. are associated with lung cancer incidence after controlling for possible confounders, and to assess the interaction with smoking behavior.Measurements of arsenic stream sediment and soil concentration obtained from the USGS National Geochemical Survey were combined, respectively, with 2008 BRFSS estimates on smoking prevalence and 2000 U.S. Census county level income to determine the effects of these factors on lung cancer incidence, as estimated from respective state-wide cancer registries and the SEER database. Poisson regression was used to determine the association between each variable and age-adjusted county-level lung cancer incidence. ANOVA was used to assess interaction effects between covariates.Sediment levels of arsenic were significantly associated with an increase in incident cases of lung cancer (P<0.0001. These effects persisted after controlling for smoking and income (P<0.0001. Across the U.S., exposure to arsenic may contribute to up to 5,297 lung cancer cases per year. There was also a significant interaction between arsenic exposure levels and smoking prevalence (P<0.05.Arsenic was significantly associated with lung cancer incidence rates in the U.S. after controlling for smoking and income, indicating that low-level exposure to arsenic is responsible for excess cancer cases in many parts of the U.S. Elevated county smoking prevalence strengthened the association between arsenic exposure and lung cancer incidence rate, an effect previously unseen on a population level.

  19. Thoracic kyphosis and rate of incident vertebral fractures: the Fracture Intervention Trial

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vittinghoff, E.; Kado, D. M.; Lane, N. E.; Ensrud, K. E.; Shipp, K.

    2016-01-01

    Summary Biomechanical analyses support the theory that thoracic spine hyperkyphosis may increase risk of new vertebral fractures. While greater kyphosis was associated with an increased rate of incident vertebral fractures, our analysis does not show an independent association of kyphosis on incident fracture, after adjustment for prevalent vertebral fracture. Excessive kyphosis may still be a clinical marker for prevalent vertebral fracture. Introduction Biomechanical analyses suggest hyperkyphosis may increase risk of incident vertebral fracture by increasing the load on vertebral bodies during daily activities. We propose to assess the association of kyphosis with incident radiographic vertebral fracture. Methods We used data from the Fracture Intervention Trial among 3038 women 55–81 years of age with low bone mineral density (BMD). Baseline kyphosis angle was measured using a Debrunner kyphometer. Vertebral fractures were assessed at baseline and follow-up from lateral radiographs of the thoracic and lumbar spine. We used Poisson models to estimate the independent association of kyphosis with incident fracture, controlling for age and femoral neck BMD. Results Mean baseline kyphosis was 48° (SD = 12) (range 7–83). At baseline, 962 (32 %) participants had a prevalent fracture. There were 221 incident fractures over a median of 4 years. At baseline, prevalent fracture was associated with 3.7° greater average kyphosis (95 % CI 2.8–4.6, p < 0.0005), adjusting for age and femoral neck BMD. Before adjusting for prevalent fracture, each 10° greater kyphosis was associated with 22 % increase (95 % CI 8–38 %, p = 0.001) in annualized rate of new radiographic vertebral fracture, adjusting for age and femoral neck BMD. After additional adjustment for prevalent fracture, estimated increased annualized rate was attenuated and no longer significant, 8 % per 10° kyphosis (95 % CI −4 to 22 %, p = 0.18). Conclusions While greater kyphosis increased the rate of

  20. Toward a better understanding of the comparatively high prostate cancer incidence rates in Utah

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wiggins Charles L

    2003-04-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background This study assesses whether comparatively high prostate cancer incidence rates among white men in Utah represent higher rates among members of the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints (LDS or Mormons, who comprise about 70% of the state's male population, and considers the potential influence screening has on these rates. Methods Analyses are based on 14,693 histologically confirmed invasive prostate cancer cases among men aged 50 years and older identified through the Utah Cancer Registry between 1985 and 1999. Cancer records were linked to LDS Church membership records to determine LDS status. Poisson regression was used to derive rate ratios of LDS to nonLDS prostate cancer incidence, adjusted for age, disease stage, calendar time, and incidental detection. Results LDS men had a 31% (95% confidence interval, 26% – 36% higher incidence rate of prostate cancer than nonLDS men during the study period. Rates were consistently higher among LDS men over time (118% in 1985–88, 20% in 1989–92, 15% in 1993–1996, and 13% in 1997–99; age (13% in ages 50–59, 48% in ages 60–69, 28% in ages 70–79, and 16% in ages 80 and older; and stage (36% in local/regional and 17% in unstaged. An age- and stage-shift was observed for both LDS and nonLDS men, although more pronounced among LDS men. Conclusions Comparatively high prostate cancer incidence rates among LDS men in Utah are explained, at least in part, by more aggressive screening among these men.

  1. [Rate of incidence of divorce in birth cohorts classified by age difference between married couples].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kajita, E; Iki, M; Fukui, M; Ogata, A; Takayama, S; Yamazaki, K; Ooida, T; Yajima, T

    1990-08-01

    We examined the situation concerning divorce in Japan from the view-point of age difference between married couples using vital statistics from the year 1952 to 1985. Annual and cumulative divorce rates were introduced as rate of incidence of divorce. We studied these indices by age difference between couples in birth cohorts of husbands. Our conclusions were as follows: 1) The cumulative divorce rate was lower in early birth cohorts than in late birth cohorts. 2) The cumulative divorce rate for young adult couples (aged 20-30) was higher than that for middle-aged couples (aged more than 30) in every cohort. 3) The cumulative divorce rate was lowest when husbands were 1 to 4 years older than wives. This tendency was quite similar in different ages and cohorts. 4) The same conclusions were reached when the annual divorce rate was substituted for the cumulative divorce rate.

  2. Incidence Rate and Patterns of Physical Restraint Use Among Adult Patients in Malaysia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eskandari, Fatemeh; Abdullah, Khatijah Lim; Zainal, Nor Zuraida; Wong, Li Ping

    2016-11-16

    Incidence rate and patterns of physical restraint use were examined based on a cross-sectional study in 22 wards of a large teaching hospital in Malaysia. Results indicated that the highest rate of physical restraint (19.7%) was reported from neurology-neurosurgery wards. "Un-cooperative for electroconvulsive therapy" and "trying to pull out catheters" were the most commonly reported reasons to use restraint in psychiatric and non-psychiatric wards, respectively. There were some relationships between patterns of physical restraint in this study. Exploring the incidence rate and patterns of physical restraint is important so that effective strategies can be formulated to minimize using restraint in hospitals. © The Author(s) 2016.

  3. A review of fatal accident incidence rate trends in fishing international

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Olaf; Pétursdóttir, G; Abrahamsen, Annbjørg;

    2014-01-01

    on journal articles and reports from the maritime authorities in Poland, UK, Norway, Iceland, Denmark, US and Alaska and Canada. The original incidence rates were recalculated as per 1000 person-years for international comparison of the trends. Results. The risk of fatal accidents in fishing in the northern...... countries has been reduced by around 50% to an average of about 1 per 1000 person-years. Norway and Canada keep the lowest rates with around 0.5 and 0.25 per 1000 person-years. About half of the fatal injuries are related to vessel disasters and drowning. The safety programs seem to have good effects still......Background. Injury prevention in fishing is one of the most important occupational health challenges. The aim was to describe and compare internationally the trends of the fatal injury incidence rates and to discuss the impact of the implemented safety programs. Methods. The review is based...

  4. Detailed discussion of the optimum baud rate of nonlinearity in WDM transmission

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Wanli; Qiao, Yaojun; Yang, Lin

    2017-01-01

    Different numbers of sub-channels correspond to different baud rates per sub-channel when the total baud rate is fixed. The optimum baud rate of nonlinearity in WDM systems is investigated in this paper. We find that the phase matching effect produces an optimum baud rate of nonlinearity, which is related to the chromatic dispersion accumulation of a single span. Then other factors that influence the optimum baud rate are analyzed. By mathematical derivation and simulation verification, larger number of spans and larger spectrum gap between sub-channels both make the optimum value decrease. We also find that different modulation formats barely change the optimum baud rate if other system settings are the same and all sub-channels have the same modulation format.

  5. Distributed Lag Nonlinear Modelling Approach to Identify Relationship between Climatic Factors and Dengue Incidence in Colombo District, Sri Lanka

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Thiyanga Talagala

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Dengue fever and its more severe deadly complication dengue hemorrhagic fever is an infectious mosquito borne disease. The rise in dengue fever has made a heavy economic burden to the country. Climate variability is considered as the major determinant of dengue transmission. Sri Lanka has a favorable climatic condition for development and transmission of dengue.  Hence the aim of this study is to estimate the effect of diverse climatic variables on the transmission of dengue while taking the lag effect and nonlinear effect into account. Weekly data on dengue cases were obtained from January, 2009 to September, 2014. Temperature, precipitation, visibility, humidity, and wind speed were also recorded as weekly averages. Poisson regression combined with distributed lag nonlinear model was used to quantify the impact of climatic factors. Results of  DLNM  revealed; Mean Temperature 250C – 270C at lag 1 – 8 weeks, Precipitation higher than  70mm at lag 1- 5 weeks and 20- 50mm at  lag 10 – 20 weeks, humidity ranged from 65% to 80% at lag 10 – 18 weeks, visibility greater than 14 km have a positive impact on the occurrence of dengue incidence while, mean temperature higher than 280C at lag 6 – 25 weeks, maximum temperature at lag 4 – 6 weeks, precipitation higher than 65mm at lag 15 – 20 weeks,  humidity less than 70% at lag 4 – 9 weeks, visibility less than 14km, high wind speed have a negative impact on the occurrence of dengue incidence. These findings can aid the targeting of vector control interventions and the planning for dengue vaccine implementation.

  6. A nationwide study of asthma incidence rate and its determinants in Swedish pre-school children.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bröms, Kristina; Norbäck, Dan; Sundelin, Claes; Eriksson, Margaretha; Svärdsudd, Kurt

    2012-09-01

    While many studies on asthma prevalence have been published, the number of studies on asthma incidence in pre-school children is limited. In this project, a nationwide sample of pre-school children was followed with the aim of estimating cumulative 5-year asthma incidence and its determinants. Parents of 5,886 children 1-6 years of age, sampled from day-care centres in 62 municipalities all over Sweden, responded in 2002 to a baseline postal questionnaire with questions regarding symptoms indicating possible asthma or atopic conditions, and a number of other variables. In 2007, parents of 4,255 children responded to an almost identical follow-up questionnaire. Of these, the 3,715 children who were free from asthma at baseline constitute the study population for this report. A large number of potential baseline determinants for cumulative 5-year asthma incidence were identified. Of these, food allergy, rhinitis, incomplete asthma diagnosis criteria (wheezing last 12 months, and ever had asthma but no current symptoms), parental rhinitis, parental asthma, age, and eczema, in ranking order of importance, remained significant in multivariate logistic regression analysis. The asthma incidence rate was highly dependent on presence or absence of these variables, the average annual rate ranging from 2/1,000/year in 6-year-olds with no determinants to 154/1,000/year in 1-year-olds with all determinants, corresponding to 11/1,000/year based on the whole study population.

  7. The Impact of Changes to the Unemployment Rate on Australian Disability Income Insurance Claim Incidence

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gaurav Khemka

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available We explore the extent to which claim incidence in Disability Income Insurance (DII is affected by changes in the unemployment rate in Australia. Using data from 1986 to 2001, we fit a hurdle model to explore the presence and magnitude of the effect of changes in unemployment rate on the incidence of DII claims, controlling for policy holder characteristics and seasonality. We find a clear positive association between unemployment and claim incidence, and we explore this further by gender, age, deferment period, and occupation. A multinomial logistic regression model is fitted to cause of claim data in order to explore the relationship further, and it is shown that the proportion of claims due to accident increases markedly with rising unemployment. The results suggest that during periods of rising unemployment, insurers may face increased claims from policy holders with shorter deferment periods for white-collar workers and for medium and heavy manual workers. Our findings indicate that moral hazard may have a material impact on DII claim incidence and insurer business in periods of declining economic conditions.

  8. Nuclear medicine incident reporting in Australia: control charts and notification rates inform quality improvement.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Larcos, G; Collins, L T; Georgiou, A; Westbrook, J I

    2015-06-01

    Australia has a statutory incident reporting system for radiopharmaceutical maladministrations, but additional research into registry data is required for the purpose of quality improvement in nuclear medicine. We (i) used control charts to identify factors contributing to special cause variation (indicating higher than expected rates) in maladministrations and (ii) evaluated the impact of heterogeneous notification criteria and extent of underreporting among jurisdictions and individual facilities, respectively. Anonymised summaries of Australian Radiation Incident Register reports permitted calculation of national monthly maladministration notification rates for 2007-2012 and preparation of control charts. Multivariate logistic regression assessed the association of population, insurance and regulatory characteristics with maladministration notifications in each Australian State and Territory. Maladministration notification rates from two facilities with familiarity of notification processes and commitment to radiation protection were compared with those elsewhere. Special cause variation occurred in only 3 months, but contributed to 21% of all incidents (42 of 197 patients), mainly because of 'clusters' of maladministrations (n = 24) arising from errors in bulk radiopharmaceutical dispensing. Maladministration notification rates varied significantly between jurisdictions (0 to 12.2 maladministrations per 100 000 procedures (P < 0.05)) and individual facilities (31.7 vs 5.8 per 100 000; χ(2) = 40; 1 degree of freedom, P < 0.001). Unexpected increases in maladministration notifications predominantly relate to incident 'clusters' affecting multiple patients. The bulk preparation of radiopharmaceuticals is a vulnerable process and merits additional safeguards. Maladministration notification rates in Australia are heterogeneous. Adopting uniform maladministration notification criteria among States and Territories and methods to overcome underreporting are

  9. Effects of breathing patterns and light exercise on linear and nonlinear heart rate variability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weippert, Matthias; Behrens, Kristin; Rieger, Annika; Kumar, Mohit; Behrens, Martin

    2015-08-01

    Despite their use in cardiac risk stratification, the physiological meaning of nonlinear heart rate variability (HRV) measures is not well understood. The aim of this study was to elucidate effects of breathing frequency, tidal volume, and light exercise on nonlinear HRV and to determine associations with traditional HRV indices. R-R intervals, blood pressure, minute ventilation, breathing frequency, and respiratory gas concentrations were measured in 24 healthy male volunteers during 7 conditions: voluntary breathing at rest, and metronome guided breathing (0.1, 0.2 and 0.4 Hz) during rest, and cycling, respectively. The effect of physical load was significant for heart rate (HR; p effect of load and breathing pattern was evident. Correlations to traditional HRV indices were modest (r from -0.14 to -0.67, p exercise does not significantly affect short-time HRV nonlinear indices, respiratory activity has to be considered as a potential contributor at rest and during light dynamic exercise.

  10. Cancer incidence and incidence rates in Japan in 2008: a study of 25 population-based cancer registries for the Monitoring of Cancer Incidence in Japan (MCIJ) project.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matsuda, Ayako; Matsuda, Tomohiro; Shibata, Akiko; Katanoda, Kota; Sobue, Tomotaka; Nishimoto, Hiroshi

    2014-04-01

    The Japan Cancer Surveillance Research Group aimed to estimate the cancer incidence in Japan in 2008 based on data collected from 25 of 34 population-based cancer registries, as part of the Monitoring of Cancer Incidence in Japan project. The incidence in Japan for 2008 was estimated to be 749 767 (C00-C96). Stomach cancer and breast cancer were the leading types of cancer in males and females, respectively.

  11. Incidence and prevalence rates of diabetes mellitus in Taiwan: Analysis of the 2000–2009 Nationwide Health Insurance database

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yi-Der Jiang

    2012-11-01

    Conclusion: The incidence of diabetes, including type 1, remained stable over this 10-year period in Taiwan. However, the incidence rate in men aged 20–59 years was higher than that in age-matched women. With our nationwide database, subgroup analysis of DM incidence can be performed to refine our health policies for the prevention, screening, and treatment of diabetes mellitus.

  12. Geometry effect on energy transfer rate in a coupled-quantum-well structure: nonlinear regime

    Science.gov (United States)

    Salavati-fard, T.; Vazifehshenas, T.

    2014-12-01

    We study theoretically the effect of geometry on the energy transfer rate at nonlinear regime in a coupled-quantum-well system using the balance equation approach. To investigate comparatively the effect of both symmetric and asymmetric geometry, different structures are considered. The random phase approximation dynamic dielectric function is employed to include the contributions from both quasiparticle and plasmon excitations. Also, the short-range exchange interaction is taken into account through the Hubbard approximation. Our numerical results show that the energy transfer rate increases by increasing the well thicknesses in symmetric structures. Furthermore, by increasing spatial asymmetry, the energy transfer rate decreases for the electron temperature range of interest. From numerical calculations, it is obtained that the nonlinear energy transfer rate is proportional to the square of electron drift velocity in all structures and also, found that the influence of Hubbard local field correction on the energy transfer rate gets weaker by increasing the strength of applied electric field.

  13. Measurement of a drowning incidence rate combining direct observation of an exposed population with mortality statistics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morgan, Damian; Ozanne-Smith, Joan

    2015-01-01

    Drowning risk factors may be identified by comparing drowning incidence rates for comparable at-risk populations but precise methods are lacking. To address this knowledge gap, an ecological study extrapolated crude time-duration exposure to water for a specified at-risk sample of surf bathers to estimate the bather population for all wave-dominated beaches in Victoria, Australia, over a four-year summer season period. An incidence rate was calculated using surf bather drowning deaths frequencies matched for time and location. For the sample, 47,341 hours of surf bathing were estimated from 177,528 bathing episodes. Generalising these results to Victoria, the crude drowning deaths incidence rate in the summer season was 0.41 per 1,000,000 person-hours of surf bathing (95% CI 0.37-0.45). Further application of the method, particularly in open water settings, may be used to identify candidate drowning risk factors to advance drowning prevention strategies.

  14. [Cesarean section incidence and vaginal birth success rate at term pregnancy after myomectomy].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mekiňová, L; Janků, P; Filipinská, E; Kadlecová, J; Ventruba, P

    To compare the incidence of primary and acute cesarean section (CS) and to compare success rate of vaginal delivery. To determine the frequency of maternal complications and evaluation of post-partum condition of the newborn. Prospective, pilot, cohort study. Department of Gynecology and Obstetrics Masaryk University and University Hospital Brno. Analysis of patients with physiologically ongoing singleton pregnancy and term delivery, vertex presentation. Women from the study group (n = 67) underwent myomectomy because of symptomatic, solitary uterine fibroid. Women from the control group (n = 4079) had no history of myomectomy. Analysis was aimed at comparing the incidence of primary and acute CS and comparing success rate of vaginal delivery in both groups and determing the frequency of maternal complications and evaluation of post-partum condition of the newborn. A significantly higher incidence of primary cesarean section was observed in the study group with a history of myomectomy compared to the control group (n = 20, 29.9%; versus n = 396, 9.7 %, p cesarean section in both groups was recorded (n = 7, 10.4%; versus n = 570, 14.0%, p = 0.079). No statistically significant difference in the success of vaginal delivery in both groups was recorded (n = 40, 85.1%; versus n = 3113, 84.5%, p = 0.079). The excessive blood loss was the most frequent complication in both group (n = 9, 13.4%; versus n = 214, 5.2%, p = 0.057). No statistically significant difference in the incidence of uterine rupture and postpartum hysterectomy was recorded. No maternal or fetal death related to childbirth was observed. The history of myomectomy does not increase the incidence of acute cesarean section in the group of strictly selected patients suitable for vaginal birth and has no impact on the success of vaginal delivery. Careful management of labor is a prerequisite for a low risk of maternal complications and good perinatal outcomes.

  15. Nonlinear analysis of heart rate variability in patients with eating disorders

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vigo, Daniel E.; Castro, Mariana N.; Dorpinghaus, Andrea; Weidema, Hylke; Cardinali, Daniel P.; Siri, Leonardo Nicola; Rovira, Bernardo; Fahrer, Rodolfo D.; Nogues, Martin; Leiguarda, Ramon C.; Guinjoan, Salvador M.

    2008-01-01

    Patients with anorexia nervosa or bulimia nervosa often have signs of autonomic dysfunction potentially deleterious to the heart. The aim of this study was to ascertain the nonlinear properties of heart rate variability in patients with eating disorders. A group of 33 women with eating disorders (14

  16. Minimal data rate stabilization of nonlinear systems over networks with large delays

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Persis, Claudio De

    2007-01-01

    We consider the problem of designing encoders, decoders and controllers which stabilize feedforward nonlinear systems over a communication network with finite bandwidth and large delay. The control scheme guarantees minimal data-rate semi-global asymptotic and local exponential stabilizatioln of the

  17. The Nonlinear Dynamic Relationship of Exchange Rates: Parametric and Nonparametric Causality testing

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bekiros, S.D.; Diks, C.

    2007-01-01

    The present study investigates the long-term linear and nonlinear causal linkages among six currencies, namely EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, USD/CHF, AUD/USD and USD/CAD. The prime motivation for choosing these exchange rates comes from the fact that they are the most liquid and widely traded, covering

  18. Nonlinear analysis of heart rate variability in patients with eating disorders

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vigo, Daniel E.; Castro, Mariana N.; Dorpinghaus, Andrea; Weidema, Hylke; Cardinali, Daniel P.; Siri, Leonardo Nicola; Rovira, Bernardo; Fahrer, Rodolfo D.; Nogues, Martin; Leiguarda, Ramon C.; Guinjoan, Salvador M.

    2008-01-01

    Patients with anorexia nervosa or bulimia nervosa often have signs of autonomic dysfunction potentially deleterious to the heart. The aim of this study was to ascertain the nonlinear properties of heart rate variability in patients with eating disorders. A group of 33 women with eating disorders (14

  19. Treatment of occult reflux lowers the incidence rate of pediatric febrile urinary tract infection.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hagerty, Jennifer; Maizels, Max; Kirsch, Andrew; Liu, Dennis; Afshar, Kourosh; Bukowski, Timothy; Caione, Paolo; Homsy, Yves; Meyer, Theresa; Kaplan, William

    2008-07-01

    To examine whether vesicourethral reflux diagnosed by positioned instillation of contrast (PIC-VUR) shows clinical importance by comparing the incidence rates of febrile urinary tract infection (FUTI) before and after treatment of PIC-VUR. Beginning in 2001 we used a multi-institutional registry to prospectively enroll consecutive pediatric patients with a history of FUTI without VUR according to voiding cystourethrogram (VCUG) and yet who show PIC-VUR. Treatment of PIC-VUR was with prophylactic antimicrobials or antireflux surgery. The post-treatment occurrence of FUTI was tracked. A total of 14 centers enrolled 118 patients (mean age, 7.2 years; range, 0.5 to 20 years). Parents self-selected the treatment of PIC-VUR as endoscopic injection (104), ureteral reimplantation (3), or antimicrobial prophylaxis (11). Study intervals surveying for FUTI before PIC (mean, 12 months; range, 1 to 17 years) and after PIC treatment (mean, 11 months; range, 0 to 3 years) were not significantly different. Overall the incidence rate for FUTI decreased significantly from 0.16 per patient per month before PIC-VUR treatment to 0.008 per patient per month after treatment (rate ratio 20; 95% confidence interval 11 to 36). The post-treatment rate of FUTI in patients treated with antibiotics versus surgery was not significantly different (rate ratio 2.5; 95% confidence interval 0.33 to 27). The diagnosis of PIC-VUR is clinically important because children treated for PIC-VUR with either antimicrobial prophylaxis or surgery show a significant reduction in the incidence rate of FUTI. This is the basis for a current prospective study randomizing patients with PIC-VUR to treatment or observation.

  20. Global stability and attractivity of a network-based SIS epidemic model with nonmonotone incidence rate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wei, Xiaodan; Liu, Lijun; Zhou, Wenshu

    2017-03-01

    In this paper, we study the global stability and attractivity of the endemic equilibrium for a network-based SIS epidemic model with nonmonotone incidence rate. The model was introduced in Li (2015). We prove that the endemic equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable if α (a parameter of this model) is sufficiently large, and is globally attractive if the transmission rate λ satisfies λ/λc ∈(1 , 2 ] , where λc is the epidemic threshold. Some numerical experiments are also presented to illustrate the theoretical results.

  1. Convergence rates for dispersive approximation schemes to nonlinear Schr\\"odinger equations

    CERN Document Server

    Ignat, Liviu I

    2011-01-01

    This article is devoted to the analysis of the convergence rates of several numerical approximation schemes for linear and nonlinear Schr\\"odinger equations on the real line. Recently, the authors have introduced viscous and two-grid numerical approximation schemes that mimic at the discrete level the so-called Strichartz dispersive estimates of the continuous Schr\\"odinger equation. This allows to guarantee the convergence of numerical approximations for initial data in L2(R), a fact that can not be proved in the nonlinear setting for standard conservative schemes unless more regularity of the initial data is assumed. In the present article we obtain explicit convergence rates and prove that dispersive schemes fulfilling the Strichartz estimates are better behaved for H^s(R) data if 0 < s < 1/2. Indeed, while dispersive schemes ensure a polynomial convergence rate, non-dispersive ones only yield logarithmic decay rates.

  2. Nonlinear systems dynamics in cardiovascular physiology: The heart rate delay map and lower body negative pressure

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hooker, John C.

    1990-01-01

    A preliminary study of the applicability of nonlinear dynamic systems analysis techniques to low body negative pressure (LBNP) studies. In particular, the applicability of the heart rate delay map is investigated. It is suggested that the heart rate delay map has potential as a supplemental tool in the assessment of subject performance in LBNP tests and possibly in the determination of susceptibility to cardiovascular deconditioning with spaceflight.

  3. What do we know about real exchange rate non-linearities?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kruse, Robinson; Frömmel, Michael; Menkhoff, Lukas;

    This research points to the serious problem of potentially misspecified alternative hypotheses when testing for unit roots in real exchange rates. We apply a popular unit root test against nonlinear ESTAR and develop a Markov Switching unit root test. The empirical power of these tests against co...... model performs clearly better. An empirical application of these tests suggests that real exchange rates may indeed be explained by Markov-Switching dynamics....

  4. Non-linear and scale-invariant analysis of the Heart Rate Variability

    CERN Document Server

    Kalda, J; Vainu, M; Laan, M

    2003-01-01

    Human heart rate fluctuates in a complex and non-stationary manner. Elaborating efficient and adequate tools for the analysis of such signals has been a great challenge for the researchers during last decades. Here, an overview of the main research results in this field is given. The following question are addressed: (a) what are the intrinsic features of the heart rate variability signal; (b) what are the most promising non-linear measures, bearing in mind clinical diagnostic and prognostic applications.

  5. Heart rate recovery after exercise and incidence of type 2 diabetes in men.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jae, Sae Young; Carnethon, Mercedes R; Heffernan, Kevin S; Fernhall, Bo; Lee, Moon-Kyu; Park, Won Hah

    2009-06-01

    We tested that slow heart rate recovery (HRR) after exercise testing, indicative of decreased parasympathetic nervous system activity, is associated with the development of type 2 diabetes in 1,813 healthy men. Heart rate recovery was calculated as the difference between maximum heart rate during the exercise test and heart rate 1 min after cessation of the exercise test. During an average of 6.4 years of follow-up, 64 (3.5%) subjects developed type 2 diabetes. The unadjusted relative risk (RR) of developing incident diabetes in the slowest versus the fastest HRR quartile was 3.13 (95% CI, 1.28-7.65). However, the association was no longer significant after adjustment for diabetes risk factors and baseline glucose (RR = 2.28, 95% CI, 0.87-5.95). Slow HRR is associated with the development of type 2 diabetes, but these relationships were largely explained by baseline fasting glucose in healthy men.

  6. Estimation of incidence and recovery rates of Plasmodium falciparum parasitaemia from longitudinal data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bekessy, A.; Molineaux, L.; Storey, J.

    1976-01-01

    A method is described of estimating the malaria incidence rate ĥ and the recovery rate r from longitudinal data. The method is based on the assumption that the phenomenon of patent parasitaemia can be represented by a reversible two-state catalytic model; it is applicable to all problems that can be represented by such a model. The method was applied to data on falciparum malaria from the West African savanna and the findings suggested that immunity increases the rate of recovery from patent parasitaemia by a factor of up to 10, and also reduces the number of episodes of patent parasitaemia resulting from one inoculation. Under the effect of propoxur, ĥ varies with the estimated man-biting rate of the vector while r̂ increases, possibly owing to reduced super-infection. PMID:800968

  7. Nonlinear heart rate variability measures under electromagnetic fields produced by GSM cellular phones.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parazzini, Marta; Ravazzani, Paolo; Thuroczy, György; Molnar, Ferenc B; Ardesi, Gianluca; Sacchettini, Alessio; Mainardi, Luca Tommaso

    2013-06-01

    This study was designed to assess the nonlinear dynamics of heart rate variability (HRV) during exposure to low-intensity EMFs. Twenty-six healthy young volunteers were subjected to a rest-to-stand protocol to evaluate autonomic nervous system in quiet condition (rest, vagal prevalence) and after a sympathetic activation (stand). The procedure was conducted twice in a double-blind design: once with a genuine EMFs exposure (GSM cellular phone at 900 MHz, 2 W) and once with a sham exposure (at least 24 h apart). During each session, three-lead electrocardiograms were recorded and RR series extracted off-line. The RR series were analyzed by nonlinear deterministic techniques in every phase of the protocol and during the different exposures. The analysis of the data shows there was no statistically significant effect due to GSM exposure on the nonlinear dynamics of HRV.

  8. Cancer incidence rates in the Kurdistan region/Iraq from 2007-2009.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Othman, Ramadhan T; Abdulljabar, Rezvan; Saeed, Abdullah; Kittani, Sarwar Sadiq; Sulaiman, Hushyar M; Mohammed, Sami A; Rashid, Rekawt M; Hussein, Nawfal R

    2011-01-01

    Cancer is a disease of gradual increase in incidence overall the world. Kurdistan Region in Iraq has been exposed to several carcinogenic hazards. There are few reports about the increased risk of cancer in different cities in Iraq. These reports did not cover Kurdistan region. The aim of this paper was to study cancer incidence and to identify possible risks of cancer in this region. Cancer registries from 9 hospitals in three cities of Kurdistan were used as a source of data. Information on these cases was subjected to careful verification regarding repetition, place of residence and other possible errors. Overall registered cases in 2007, 2008 and 2009 were 1444, 2081, 2356 respectively. 49% of registered cases were males and 51% were female. The Age Standardized Rate of cancer was 89.83/100 000 among male and 83.93/100 000 among female. The results showed major variation in incidence rates of different types of cancer in the three governorates of Kurdistan. Furthermore, there was evidence of increased risks of cancer in Kurdistan Region in Iraq. Hematological malignancies were the most common cancer among male (21.13% of all cancer in males) and second most common in female (18.8% of all cancer in female), only exceeded by breast cancer. To reach sound conclusions about extent and determinants of cancer in Kurdistan, enormous multi-spectrum efforts are now needed.

  9. Association Between Heart Rate at Rest and Incident Atrial Fibrillation (from the Copenhagen Electrocardiographic Study)

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Skov, Morten W.; Bachmann, Troels N.; Rasmussen, Peter V.

    2016-01-01

    Heart rate (HR) at rest is a well-known marker of cardiovascular morbidity and mortality. Results on the association between HR and incident atrial fibrillation (AF) have, however, been conflicting. Using digital electrocardiograms from 281,451 primary care patients, we aimed to describe the asso......Heart rate (HR) at rest is a well-known marker of cardiovascular morbidity and mortality. Results on the association between HR and incident atrial fibrillation (AF) have, however, been conflicting. Using digital electrocardiograms from 281,451 primary care patients, we aimed to describe...... the association between HR at rest and the hazards of incident AF. Secondary end points were death from all causes and pacemaker implantation. Data on drug use, co-morbidity, and outcomes were collected from nationwide administrative health care registries. During a median follow-up time of 8.4 years, 15......,666 subjects were observed to develop AF, of which 1,631 were lone AF. A HR at rest from 30 to 51 beats/min was associated with an adjusted hazard ratio of 1.16 (95% CI 1.06 to 1.27) for AF compared with the reference group (66 to 72 beats/min). From 72 beats/min and upward, the hazard ratio of AF increased...

  10. Variations in incidence rates and age of onset of acute and transient psychotic disorders

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Castagnini, Augusto; Foldager, Leslie

    2013-01-01

    Purpose: To determine incidence and age of onset of the ICD-10 category of ‘acute and transient psychotic disorders’ (ATPDs) characterised by subtypes with polymorphic, schizophrenic and predominantly delusional symptoms, pointing out differences from schizophrenia (SZ) and bipolar affective...... to occur in younger males (IRR 1.4; 1.2–1.7). No significant gender difference was found for acute predominantly delusional disorder (IRR 1.0; 0.9–1.2), which had a later onset than any ATPD subtypes. SZ had an incidence twice as high in males (IRR 2.0; 1.9–2.2), and an earlier age of onset than ATPDs...... disorder (BD). Methods: We identified all subjects aged 15–64 years who were listed for the first time in the Danish Psychiatric Register with a diagnosis of ATPDs (n = 3,350), SZ (n = 4,576) and BD (n = 3,200) in 1995–2008. Incidence rates and rate ratios (IRR; 95 % confidence interval) by gender and age...

  11. Variations in incidence rates and age of onset of acute and transient psychotic disorders

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Castagnini, Augusto; Foldager, Leslie

    2013-01-01

    disorder (BD). Methods: We identified all subjects aged 15–64 years who were listed for the first time in the Danish Psychiatric Register with a diagnosis of ATPDs (n = 3,350), SZ (n = 4,576) and BD (n = 3,200) in 1995–2008. Incidence rates and rate ratios (IRR; 95 % confidence interval) by gender and age...... were calculated. Results: The incidence of ATPDs was 6.7 per 100,000 person-years, similarly high for both genders (IRR 1.0; 0.9–1.1). Among the ATPD subtypes, polymorphic psychotic disorder was more common in females (IRR 1.4; 1.2–1.6) as opposed to those featuring schizophrenic symptoms, which tended......Purpose: To determine incidence and age of onset of the ICD-10 category of ‘acute and transient psychotic disorders’ (ATPDs) characterised by subtypes with polymorphic, schizophrenic and predominantly delusional symptoms, pointing out differences from schizophrenia (SZ) and bipolar affective...

  12. Measurement of heart rate variability by methods based on nonlinear dynamics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huikuri, Heikki V; Mäkikallio, Timo H; Perkiömäki, Juha

    2003-01-01

    Heart rate (HR) variability has been conventionally analyzed with time and frequency domain methods, which measure the overall magnitude of R-R interval fluctuations around its mean value or the magnitude of fluctuations in some predetermined frequencies. Analysis of HR dynamics by methods based on chaos theory and nonlinear system theory has gained recent interest. This interest is based on observations suggesting that the mechanisms involved in cardiovascular regulation likely interact with each other in a nonlinear way. Furthermore, recent observational studies suggest that some indexes describing nonlinear HR dynamics, such as fractal scaling exponents, may provide more powerful prognostic information than the traditional HR variability indexes. In particular, short-term fractal scaling exponent measured by detrended fluctuation analysis method has been shown to predict fatal cardiovascular events in various populations. Approximate entropy, a nonlinear index of HR dynamics, which describes the complexity of R-R interval behavior, has provided information on the vulnerability to atrial fibrillation. There are many other nonlinear indexes, eg, Lyapunov exponent and correlation dimensions, which also give information on the characteristics of HR dynamics, but their clinical utility is not well established. Although concepts of chaos theory, fractal mathematics, and complexity measures of HR behavior in relation to cardiovascular physiology or various cardiovascular events are still far away from clinical medicine, they are a fruitful area for future research to expand our knowledge concerning the behavior of cardiovascular oscillations in normal healthy conditions as well as in disease states.

  13. Population-Based Incidence Rates of Diarrheal Disease Associated with Norovirus, Sapovirus, and Astrovirus in Kenya.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shioda, Kayoko; Cosmas, Leonard; Audi, Allan; Gregoricus, Nicole; Vinjé, Jan; Parashar, Umesh D; Montgomery, Joel M; Feikin, Daniel R; Breiman, Robert F; Hall, Aron J

    2016-01-01

    Diarrheal diseases remain a major cause of mortality in Africa and worldwide. While the burden of rotavirus is well described, population-based rates of disease caused by norovirus, sapovirus, and astrovirus are lacking, particularly in developing countries. Data on diarrhea cases were collected through a population-based surveillance platform including healthcare encounters and household visits in Kenya. We analyzed data from June 2007 to October 2008 in Lwak, a rural site in western Kenya, and from October 2006 to February 2009 in Kibera, an urban slum. Stool specimens from diarrhea cases of all ages who visited study clinics were tested for norovirus, sapovirus, and astrovirus by RT-PCR. Of 334 stool specimens from Lwak and 524 from Kibera, 85 (25%) and 159 (30%) were positive for norovirus, 13 (4%) and 31 (6%) for sapovirus, and 28 (8%) and 18 (3%) for astrovirus, respectively. Among norovirus-positive specimens, genogroup II predominated in both sites, detected in 74 (87%) in Lwak and 140 (88%) in Kibera. The adjusted community incidence per 100,000 person-years was the highest for norovirus (Lwak: 9,635; Kibera: 4,116), followed by astrovirus (Lwak: 3,051; Kibera: 440) and sapovirus (Lwak: 1,445; Kibera: 879). For all viruses, the adjusted incidence was higher among children aged sapovirus: 5,556 in Lwak and 4,378 in Kibera; astrovirus: 11,113 in Lwak and 2,814 in Kibera) compared to cases aged ≥5 years. Although limited by a lack of controls, this is the first study to estimate the outpatient and community incidence rates of norovirus, sapovirus, and astrovirus across the age spectrum in Kenya, suggesting a substantial disease burden imposed by these viruses. By applying adjusted rates, we estimate approximately 2.8-3.3 million, 0.45-0.54 million, and 0.77-0.95 million people become ill with norovirus, sapovirus, and astrovirus, respectively, every year in Kenya.

  14. Prevalence of human endogenous retroviral element associates with Hodgkin's lymphoma incidence rates

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wee Hong Woo

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Human endogenous retrovirus-H (HERV-H is implicated in leukaemias and lymphomas, but the precise molecular mechanism underlying HERV-mediated carcinogenesis remains unknown. We determined the prevalence of HERV-H in a cross-section of the Singapore population and explored the relationship between HERV-H positivity and incidence rates for Hodgkin's lymphoma in three major ethnic groups of Singapore. We observed that Malays were 1.11 times likely (95% CI=1.05–1.17; P<0.01, and Indians 1.12 times likely (95% CI=1.07–1.18; P<0.01 to be HERV-H positive when compared to Chinese. Interestingly, the incidence rates of Hodgkin's lymphoma for the three races positively correlated to the respective prevalence rate for HERV-H positivity (r=0.9921 for male; r=0.9801 for female, suggesting that viral inheritance in human may predispose certain racial origin unfavourably to malignancy.

  15. Nonlinearity and Strain-Rate Dependence in the Deformation Response of Polymer Matrix Composites Modeled

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goldberg, Robert K.

    2000-01-01

    There has been no accurate procedure for modeling the high-speed impact of composite materials, but such an analytical capability will be required in designing reliable lightweight engine-containment systems. The majority of the models in use assume a linear elastic material response that does not vary with strain rate. However, for containment systems, polymer matrix composites incorporating ductile polymers are likely to be used. For such a material, the deformation response is likely to be nonlinear and to vary with strain rate. An analytical model has been developed at the NASA Glenn Research Center at Lewis Field that incorporates both of these features. A set of constitutive equations that was originally developed to analyze the viscoplastic deformation of metals (Ramaswamy-Stouffer equations) was modified to simulate the nonlinear, rate-dependent deformation of polymers. Specifically, the effects of hydrostatic stresses on the inelastic response, which can be significant in polymers, were accounted for by a modification of the definition of the effective stress. The constitutive equations were then incorporated into a composite micromechanics model based on the mechanics of materials theory. This theory predicts the deformation response of a composite material from the properties and behavior of the individual constituents. In this manner, the nonlinear, rate-dependent deformation response of a polymer matrix composite can be predicted.

  16. Asymptotic solution of nonlinear moment equations for constant-rate aerosol reactors

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B. D. Shaw

    1998-01-01

    Full Text Available Nonlinear evolution equations based upon moments of the aerosol size distribution function are solved asymptotically for constant-rate aerosol reactors (i.e., where condensible monomer is added at a constant rate operating in the free-molecular limit. The governing equations are nondimensionalized and a large parameter that controls nucleation behavior is identified. Asymptotic analyses are developed in terms of this parameter. Comparison of the asymptotic results with direct numerical integration of the governing equations is favorable. The asymptotic results provide a simplified analytical approach to estimating average particle sizes, particle number densities, and peak supersaturation values for constant-rate aerosol reactors.

  17. Comparing Linear and Non-linear Benchmarks of Exchange Rate Forecasting

    OpenAIRE

    SJ Retief, M Pretorius and I Botha

    2015-01-01

    Throughout the past 3 decades, the random walk model served as exchange rate forecasting benchmark to verify that a model is able to outperform a random process. However, its application as forecasting benchmark is contradictory. Rather than serving as a benchmark that explains exchange rate behaviour, it serves as a benchmark of what we do not understand in exchange rate forecasting – the random component. In order to accommodate for the observed mean reverting and non-linear patterns in e...

  18. Global Analysis of a Virus Dynamics Model with General Incidence Function and Cure Rate

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yu Yang

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available A virus dynamics model with logistic function, general incidence function, and cure rate is considered. By carrying out mathematical analysis, we show that the infection-free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable if the basic reproduction number ℛ0≤1. If ℛ0>1, then the infection equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable under some assumptions. Furthermore, we also obtain the conditions for which the model exists an orbitally asymptotically stable periodic solution. Examples are provided to support our analytical conclusions.

  19. Existence of Traveling Waves for a Delayed SIRS Epidemic Diffusion Model with Saturation Incidence Rate

    OpenAIRE

    Kai Zhou; Qi-Ru Wang

    2014-01-01

    This paper is concerned with the existence of traveling waves for a delayed SIRS epidemic diffusion model with saturation incidence rate. By using the cross-iteration method and Schauder’s fixed point theorem, we reduce the existence of traveling waves to the existence of a pair of upper-lower solutions. By careful analyzsis, we derive the existence of traveling waves connecting the disease-free steady state and the endemic steady state through the establishment of the suitable upper-lower...

  20. Nonlinear incidence rate of a Pest management SI model with biological and chemical control concern

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    JIAO Jian-jun; CHEN Lan-sun

    2007-01-01

    A pest management SI model with impulsive releases of infective pests and spraying pesticides is proposed and investigated. We prove that all solutions of the model are uniformly ultimately bounded. We also obtain the sufficient conditions of globally asymptotic stability periodic solution of pest-extinction and permanence of the model.The approach of combining impulsive releasing infective pests with impulsive spraying pesticides provides reliable tactical basis for the practical pest management.

  1. Periodic orbits for seasonal SIRS models with non-linear incidence rates

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Laura Rocio Gonzalez-Ramirez

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available In this work, we prove the existence of periodic solutions for a seasonally-dependent SIRS model using Leray-Schauder degree theory. We obtain criteria for the uniqueness and asymptotic stability of the periodic solution of the system. We also present suitable examples of a seasonal epidemiological disease.

  2. Multi-objective control of nonlinear boiler-turbine dynamics with actuator magnitude and rate constraints.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Pang-Chia

    2013-01-01

    This paper investigates multi-objective controller design approaches for nonlinear boiler-turbine dynamics subject to actuator magnitude and rate constraints. System nonlinearity is handled by a suitable linear parameter varying system representation with drum pressure as the system varying parameter. Variation of the drum pressure is represented by suitable norm-bounded uncertainty and affine dependence on system matrices. Based on linear matrix inequality algorithms, the magnitude and rate constraints on the actuator and the deviations of fluid density and water level are formulated while the tracking abilities on the drum pressure and power output are optimized. Variation ranges of drum pressure and magnitude tracking commands are used as controller design parameters, determined according to the boiler-turbine's operation range.

  3. Stroke in young adults: Incidence rate, risk factors, treatment and prognosis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    González-Gómez, F J; Pérez-Torre, P; DeFelipe, A; Vera, R; Matute, C; Cruz-Culebras, A; Álvarez-Velasco, R; Masjuan, J

    2016-10-01

    To analyse the incidence, risk factors, aetiology, treatment and clinical evolution of young patients with stroke. Retrospective registry of patients aged 55 years or younger hospitalised in a stroke unit during 2014. We recorded the incidence rate for all strokes and analysed demographic data, risk factors, degree of stress, stroke type and aetiology, reperfusion treatments and clinical evolution. The study included 110 patients, the majority of whom were men (60.9%, 1.6:1 ratio). The incidence rate was 13.3% (110 of 830 strokes). Most of the patients had cardiovascular risk factors. Smoking was the most common risk factor (56.4%), followed by arterial hypertension (50%), dyslipidaemia (42.7%), obesity (33%), diabetes (18.2%) and emboligenic heart disease (12.7%). Some 64.3% of the heart disease cases and 51.1% of the dyslipidaemia cases were discovered during hospitalisation. Some 57.2% of the patients experienced psychosocial stress in the stage prior to the stroke. Some 83.6% of the stroke cases were ischaemic, 12.7% were haemorrhagic and 3.6% were venous sinus thrombosis. Of the ischaemic stroke cases, 30.4% were cryptogenic, 23.9% were lacunar, 16.3% were from uncommon causes, 15.2% were atherothrombotic and 14.1% were cardioembolic. Some 78.6% of the cerebral haemorrhage cases were hypertensive. Some 23.3% of the ischaemic stroke cases underwent reperfusion treatments in the acute phase, achieving levels of functional independence at 3 months of 62.5%. The majority of stroke events in patients 55 years of age or younger appear to be related to a high prevalence of classical cardiovascular risk factors and possibly to psychosocial stress. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier España, S.L.U. and Sociedad Española de Medicina Interna (SEMI). All rights reserved.

  4. Correlation Analysis of Cocoa Consumption Data with Worldwide Incidence Rates of Testicular Cancer and Hypospadias

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fabrizio Giannandrea

    2009-02-01

    Full Text Available The underlying reasons for the increasing occurrence of male reproductive diseases (MRD such as hypospadias, cryptorchidism, and testicular cancer (TC over the last decades are still unknown. It has been hypothesized that the risk of MRD is determined in utero and that pregnancy dietary intake could also affect MRD risk in the offspring. Various studies in animals reported that cocoa and theobromine, the main stimulant of cocoa, exert toxic effects on the testis, inducing testicular atrophy and impaired sperm quality. A correlation analysis was conducted to examine the possible role of cocoa consumption on the occurrence of selected MRD during the prenatal and early life period of cases. The incidence rates between 1998-2002 of TC in 18 countries obtained from Cancer Incidence in Five Continents were correlated with the average per-capita consumption of cocoa (kg/capita/year (FAOSTAT-Database in these countries from 1965 to 1980, i.e. the period corresponding to the early life of TC cases. In order to test the above correlation in the case of hypospadias, the mean prevalence at birth in 20 countries (1999-2003 with average per-capita consumption of cocoa in these countries in the same period corresponding to pregnancy were used. The consumption of cocoa in the period 1965–80, was most closely correlated with the incidence of TC in young adults (r=0.859; p<0.001. An analogous significant correlation was also observed between early cocoa consumption and the prevalence rates of hypospadias in the period 1999-2003 (r=0.760; p<0.001. Although the ecological approach used in this study cannot provide an answer on the causal relationship between consumption of cocoa in early life and TC and hypospadias, the results are suggestive and indicate the need of further analytic studies to investigate the role of individual exposure to cocoa, particularly during the prenatal and in early life of the patients.

  5. Non-linear direct effects of acid rain on leaf photosynthetic rate of terrestrial plants.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dong, Dan; Du, Enzai; Sun, Zhengzhong; Zeng, Xuetong; de Vries, Wim

    2017-09-12

    Anthropogenic emissions of acid precursors have enhanced global occurrence of acid rain, especially in East Asia. Acid rain directly suppresses leaf function by eroding surface waxes and cuticle and leaching base cations from mesophyll cells, while the simultaneous foliar uptake of nitrates in rainwater may directly benefit leaf photosynthesis and plant growth, suggesting a non-linear direct effect of acid rain. By synthesizing data from literature on acid rain exposure experiments, we assessed the direct effects of acid rain on leaf photosynthesis across 49 terrestrial plants in China. Our results show a non-linear direct effect of acid rain on leaf photosynthetic rate, including a neutral to positive effect above pH 5.0 and a negative effect below that pH level. The acid rain sensitivity of leaf photosynthesis showed no significant difference between herbs and woody species below pH 5.0, but the impacts above that pH level were strongly different, resulting in a significant increase in leaf photosynthetic rate of woody species and an insignificant effect on herbs. Our analysis also indicates a positive effect of the molar ratio of nitric versus sulfuric acid in the acid solution on leaf photosynthetic rate. These findings imply that rainwater acidity and the composition of acids both affect the response of leaf photosynthesis and therefore result in a non-linear direct effect. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  6. Differences in tuberculosis incidence rates in township and in rural populations in Ntcheu District, Malawi.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Banerjee, A; Harries, A D; Salaniponi, F M

    1999-01-01

    There has been a large upsurge of tuberculosis (TB) in many countries in sub-Saharan Africa, mainly as a result of the co-existing human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) epidemic. Malawi has had a well-run National TB Control Programme (NTP) with good registration and recording of cases. For some years the NTP has had the impression that TB in the country is concentrated around townships and is less prevalent in the rural areas. This impression was investigated in a rural district (Ntcheu District) in Malawi. Data on new TB cases were collected from the district TB register for the years 1992-96 and average annual TB incidence rates per 100,000 for semi-urban and rural populations were calculated for this period. There was a significantly higher incidence of TB, particularly amongst cases with smear-negative pulmonary TB and extrapulmonary TB, in the semi-urban population compared with the rural population. Possible explanations could be higher HIV seroprevalence rates in semi-urban areas compared with rural areas, under-diagnosis at health centres or poor access to medical facilities for rural people.

  7. Evaluation of cardiovascular ischemic event rates in dasatinib-treated patients using standardized incidence ratios.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saglio, Giuseppe; le Coutre, Philipp; Cortes, Jorge; Mayer, Jiří; Rowlings, Philip; Mahon, François-Xavier; Kroog, Glenn; Gooden, Kyna; Subar, Milayna; Shah, Neil P

    2017-08-01

    With high survival rates for chronic myeloid leukemia (CML) patients treated with BCR-ABL1 tyrosine kinase inhibitors (TKIs), emerging consequences, such as arterial ischemic events, require consideration when evaluating treatment options. Cardiovascular ischemic event incidence in clinical trials was evaluated in 2712 dasatinib-treated patients with Philadelphia chromosome-positive (Ph+) leukemias from 11 first- and second-line trials (pooled), newly diagnosed CML patients treated with dasatinib or imatinib (DASISION), and prostate cancer patients treated with dasatinib or placebo plus docetaxel/prednisone (READY). Overall, 2-4% of dasatinib-treated patients had cardiovascular ischemic events. Most dasatinib-treated patients with an event had a history of and/or risk factor for atherosclerosis (pooled 77 with history/risk and event/96 with events; DASISION 8/10; READY 15/18). Most cardiovascular ischemic events occurred within 1 year of initiating dasatinib (pooled 69/96; DASISION 7/10; READY 16/18). Comparison of observed and expected event rates through standardized incidence ratios indicates that dasatinib does not increase risk for cardiovascular ischemic events compared with external reference populations.

  8. Nonlinear effect of dispersal rate on spatial synchrony of predator-prey cycles.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fox, Jeremy W; Legault, Geoffrey; Legault, Geoff; Vasseur, David A; Einarson, Jodie A

    2013-01-01

    Spatially-separated populations often exhibit positively correlated fluctuations in abundance and other population variables, a phenomenon known as spatial synchrony. Generation and maintenance of synchrony requires forces that rapidly restore synchrony in the face of desynchronizing forces such as demographic and environmental stochasticity. One such force is dispersal, which couples local populations together, thereby synchronizing them. Theory predicts that average spatial synchrony can be a nonlinear function of dispersal rate, but the form of the dispersal rate-synchrony relationship has never been quantified for any system. Theory also predicts that in the presence of demographic and environmental stochasticity, realized levels of synchrony can exhibit high variability around the average, so that ecologically-identical metapopulations might exhibit very different levels of synchrony. We quantified the dispersal rate-synchrony relationship using a model system of protist predator-prey cycles in pairs of laboratory microcosms linked by different rates of dispersal. Paired predator-prey cycles initially were anti-synchronous, and were subject to demographic stochasticity and spatially-uncorrelated temperature fluctuations, challenging the ability of dispersal to rapidly synchronize them. Mean synchrony of prey cycles was a nonlinear, saturating function of dispersal rate. Even extremely low rates of dispersal (systems are sufficient to generate and maintain synchrony of cyclic population dynamics, at least when environments are not too spatially heterogeneous.

  9. Cyclic patterns of incidence rate for skin malignant melanoma:association with heliogeophysical activity

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Borislav D. DIMITROV; Mariana I. RACHKOVA; Penka A. ATANASSOVA

    2008-01-01

    Background: Our previous studies revealed cyclicity in the incidence rate of skin malignant melanoma (SMM; ICD9, Dx: 172) in the Czech Republic (period T=7.50~7.63 years), UK (T=11.00 years) and Bulgaria (T=12.20 years). Incidences com-pared with the sunspot index Rz (lag-period dT=+2, +4, +6, +10 or +12 years) have indicated that maximal rates are most likely to appear on descending slopes of the 11-year solar cycle, i.e., out of phase. We summarized and explored more deeply these cyclic variations and discussed their possible associations with heliogeophysical activity (HGA) components exhibiting similar cyclicity. Methods: Annual incidences of SMM from 5 countries (Czech Republic, UK, Bulgaria, USA and Canada) over various time spans during the years 1964~1992 were analyzed and their correlations with cyclic Rz (sunspot number) and aa (planetary geomagnetic activity) indices were summarized. Periodogram regression analysis with trigonometric approximation and phase-correlation analysis were applied. Results: Previous findings on SMM for the Czech Republic, UK and Bulgaria have been validated, and cyclic patterns have been revealed for USA (T=8.63 years, P<0.05) and Canada (Ontario, T=9.91 years, P<0.10). Also, various 'hypercycles' were established (T=45.5, 42.0, 48.25, 34.5 and 26.5 years, respectively) describing long-term cyclic incidence patterns. The association of SMM for USA and Canada with Rz (dT=+6 and +7 years, respectively) and aa (dT=-10 and +9 years, respectively) was described. Possible interactions of cyclic non-photic influences (UV irradiation, Schumann resonance signal, low-frequency geomagnetic fluctuations) with brain waves absorbance, neuronal calcium dynamics, neuro-endocrine axis modulation, melatonin/serotonin disbalance and skin neuro-immunity impairment as likely causal pathways in melanoma appearance, were also discussed. Conclusion: The above findings on cyclicity and temporal association of SMM with cyclic environmental factors

  10. Heart Rate Variability in Nonlinear Rats with Different Orientation and Exploratory Activity in the Open Field.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kur'yanova, E V; Teplyi, D L; Zhukova, Yu D; Zhukovina, N V

    2015-12-01

    The basic behavioral activity of nonlinear rats was evaluated from the sum of crossed peripheral and central squares and peripheral and central rearing postures in the open fi eld test. This index was low (30 episodes). Male rats with high score of orientation and exploratory activity were characterized by higher indexes of total heart rate variability than rats with low or intermediate activity. Specimens with a greater contribution of VLF waves into the total power spectrum of heart rate variability were shown to dominate among the rats with high behavioral activity. Our results are consistent with the notions of a suprasegmental nature of VLF waves.

  11. Intelligent modeling and control for nonlinear systems with rate-dependent hysteresis

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    MAO JianQin; DING HaiShan

    2009-01-01

    A new modeling approach for nonlinear systems with rate-dependent hysteresis is proposed. The ap-proach is used for the modeling of the giant magnetostrictive actuator, which has the rate-dependent nonlinear property. The models built are simpler than the existed approaches. Compared with the exper-intent result, the model built can well describe the hysteresis nonlinear of the actuator for Input signals with complex frequency. An adaptive direct inverse control approach is proposed based on the fuzzy tree model and Inverse learning and special learning that are used in neural network broadly. In this approach, the inverse model of the plant is identified to be the initial controller firstly. Then, the inverse model Is connected with the plant in series and the linear parameters of the controller are adjusted using the least mean square algorithm by on-line manner. The direct Inverse control approach based on the fuzzy tree model is applied on the tracing control of the actuator by simulation. The simulation results show the correctness of the approach.

  12. Falling Plasmodium knowlesi Malaria Death Rate among Adults despite Rising Incidence, Sabah, Malaysia, 2010-2014.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rajahram, Giri S; Barber, Bridget E; William, Timothy; Grigg, Matthew J; Menon, Jayaram; Yeo, Tsin W; Anstey, Nicholas M

    2016-01-01

    Deaths from Plasmodium knowlesi malaria have been linked to delayed parenteral treatment. In Malaysia, early intravenous artesunate is now recommended for all severe malaria cases. We describe P. knowlesi fatalities in Sabah, Malaysia, during 2012-2014 and report species-specific fatality rates based on 2010-2014 case notifications. Sixteen malaria-associated deaths (caused by PCR-confirmed P. knowlesi [7], P. falciparum [7], and P. vivax [1] and microscopy-diagnosed "P. malariae" [1]) were reported during 2012-2014. Six patients with severe P. knowlesi malaria received intravenous artesunate at hospital admission. For persons ≥15 years of age, overall fatality rates during 2010-2014 were 3.4, 4.2, and 1.0 deaths/1,000 P. knowlesi, P. falciparum, and P. vivax notifications, respectively; P. knowlesi-associated fatality rates fell from 9.2 to 1.6 deaths/1,000 notifications. No P. knowlesi-associated deaths occurred among children, despite 373 notified cases. Although P. knowlesi malaria incidence is rising, the notification-fatality rate has decreased, likely due to improved use of intravenous artesunate.

  13. High Mortality Rate of Stomach Cancer Caused Not by High Incidence but Delays in Diagnosis in Aomori Prefecture, Japan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matsuzaka, Masashi; Tanaka, Rina; Sasaki, Yoshihiro

    2016-10-01

    Background: There are substantial differences in the mortality rates of stomach cancer among the 47 prefectures in Japan, and Aomori prefecture is one of the most severely impacted. The aims of this study were to determine the incidence and mortality rates of stomach cancer in Aomori prefecture in comparison with Japan as a whole and cast light on reasons underlying variation. Methods: Data on stomach cancer cases were extracted from the Aomori Cancer Registry Database. Incidence rates for specific stages at the time of diagnosis were cited from Monitoring of Cancer Incidence in Japan, and mortality rates for stomach cancer in Aomori prefecture and the whole of Japan were obtained from Vital Statistics. Age-standardised incidence and mortality rates were calculated using the direct method. Results: The age-standardised incidence rate of stomach cancer in Aomori prefecture was higher than in the whole of Japan for males but lower for females. However, the age-standardised mortality rates were higher in Aomori prefecture in both sexes. The proportion of localised cancers was lower in Aomori prefecture than in the whole of Japan for most age groups. Conclusions: The lower rate for localised cancer suggests that higher age-standardised mortality rates are due to delays in diagnosis, despite an attendance rate for stomach cancer screening was higher in Aomori prefecture than in the whole of Japan. One plausible explanation for the failure of successful early detection might be poor quality control during screening implementation that impedes early detection.

  14. Population-Based Incidence Rates of Diarrheal Disease Associated with Norovirus, Sapovirus, and Astrovirus in Kenya.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kayoko Shioda

    Full Text Available Diarrheal diseases remain a major cause of mortality in Africa and worldwide. While the burden of rotavirus is well described, population-based rates of disease caused by norovirus, sapovirus, and astrovirus are lacking, particularly in developing countries.Data on diarrhea cases were collected through a population-based surveillance platform including healthcare encounters and household visits in Kenya. We analyzed data from June 2007 to October 2008 in Lwak, a rural site in western Kenya, and from October 2006 to February 2009 in Kibera, an urban slum. Stool specimens from diarrhea cases of all ages who visited study clinics were tested for norovirus, sapovirus, and astrovirus by RT-PCR.Of 334 stool specimens from Lwak and 524 from Kibera, 85 (25% and 159 (30% were positive for norovirus, 13 (4% and 31 (6% for sapovirus, and 28 (8% and 18 (3% for astrovirus, respectively. Among norovirus-positive specimens, genogroup II predominated in both sites, detected in 74 (87% in Lwak and 140 (88% in Kibera. The adjusted community incidence per 100,000 person-years was the highest for norovirus (Lwak: 9,635; Kibera: 4,116, followed by astrovirus (Lwak: 3,051; Kibera: 440 and sapovirus (Lwak: 1,445; Kibera: 879. For all viruses, the adjusted incidence was higher among children aged <5 years (norovirus: 22,225 in Lwak and 17,511 in Kibera; sapovirus: 5,556 in Lwak and 4,378 in Kibera; astrovirus: 11,113 in Lwak and 2,814 in Kibera compared to cases aged ≥5 years.Although limited by a lack of controls, this is the first study to estimate the outpatient and community incidence rates of norovirus, sapovirus, and astrovirus across the age spectrum in Kenya, suggesting a substantial disease burden imposed by these viruses. By applying adjusted rates, we estimate approximately 2.8-3.3 million, 0.45-0.54 million, and 0.77-0.95 million people become ill with norovirus, sapovirus, and astrovirus, respectively, every year in Kenya.

  15. Tuberculosis Incidence and Case Notification Rates in Kosovo and the Balkans in 2012: Cross-country Comparison.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kurhasani, Xhevat; Hafizi, Hasan; Toci, Ervin; Burazeri, Genc

    2014-02-01

    Tuberculosis (TB) continues to be a considerable burden especially for millions of young adults and disadvantaged people worldwide. The TB incidence and notification rates are good indicators of TB situation in a country. Our aim was to compare TB incidence and notification rates in Kosovo and in seven other Balkan countries. Retrospective epidemiologic analysis of published data on TB incidence and notification rates in eight Balkan countries in 2012. Notification rates were expressed per 100,000 inhabitants and were calculated based on the number of TB cases reported divided by the population of each country under analysis. The TB incidence in Kosovo (47/100,000) was considerably higher compared to its four neighboring countries: Albania (16/100,000), Macedonia, Montenegro (18/100,000) and Serbia (23/100,000). The TB notification rates in Kosovo and other countries closely mimicked the incidence rates in these countries. The exceptionally high TB incidence rate in Kosovo could be due to many factors including low health and medical-seeking behaviors of the local population, poverty and low education levels. Effective interventions should be adapted to the local context in order to increase the chances of success.

  16. Incidence and mutation rates of Huntington's disease in Spain: experience of 9 years of direct genetic testing

    OpenAIRE

    Ramos-Arroyo, M; Moreno, S.; Valiente, A.

    2005-01-01

    Background: Prior to the discovery of the Huntington's disease (HD) mutation, the prevalence, incidence, and new mutation rates for this disease were based on the presence of progressive choreic movements and a positive family history.

  17. Monthly Incidence Rates of Abusive Encounters for Canadian Family Physicians by Patients and Their Families

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Baukje (Bo Miedema

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available Objective. The goal of this study was to examine the monthly incidence rates of abusive encounters for family physicians in Canada. Methods. A 7-page cross-sectional survey. Results. Of the entire study sample (N=720, 29% of the physicians reported having experienced an abusive event in the last month by a patient or patient family member. Abusive incidents were classified as minor, major, or severe. Of the physician participants who reported having been abused, all reported having experienced a minor event, 26% a major, and 8% a severe event. Of the physicians who experienced an abusive event, 55% were not aware of any policies to protect them, 76% did not seek help, and 64% did not report the abusive event. Conclusion. Family physicians are subjected to significant amounts of abuse in their day-to-day practices. Few physicians are aware of workplace policies that could protect them, and fewer report abusive encounters. Physicians would benefit from increased awareness of institutional policies that can protect them against abusive patients and their families and from the development of a national policy.

  18. Examining the reaction of monetary policy to exchange rate changes: A nonlinear ARDL approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Manogaran, Lavaneesvari; Sek, Siok Kun

    2017-04-01

    Previous studies showed the exchange rate changes can have significant impacts on macroeconomic performance. Over fluctuation of exchange rate may lead to economic instability. Hence, monetary policy rule tends to react to exchange rate changes. Especially, in emerging economies where the policy-maker tends to limit the exchange rate movement through interventions. In this study, we seek to investigate how the monetary policy rule reacts to exchange rate changes. The nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) model is applied to capture the asymmetric effect of exchange rate changes on monetary policy reaction function (interest rate). We focus the study in ASEAN5 countries (Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Singapore). The results indicated the existence of asymmetric effect of exchange rates changes on the monetary reaction function for all ASEAN5 countries in the long-run. Where, in majority of the cases the monetary policy is reacting to the appreciation and depreciation of exchange rate by raising the policy rate. This affirms the intervention of policymakers with the `fear of floating' behavior.

  19. Incidence rates and trends of hip/femur fractures in five European countries

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Requena, G; Abbing-Karahagopian, V; Huerta, C

    2014-01-01

    Hip fractures represent a major public health challenge worldwide. Multinational studies using a common methodology are scarce. We aimed to estimate the incidence rates (IRs) and trends of hip/femur fractures over the period 2003-2009 in five European countries. The study was performed using seven...... electronic health-care records databases (DBs) from Denmark, The Netherlands, Germany, Spain, and the United Kingdom, based on the same protocol. Yearly IRs of hip/femur fractures were calculated for the general population and for those aged ≥50 years. Trends over time were evaluated using linear regression......, P femur fractures varied greatly across European countries. With the exception of Denmark, no decreasing trend was observed over the study period....

  20. Breast Cancer-Related Arm Lymphedema: Incidence Rates, Diagnostic Techniques, Optimal Management and Risk Reduction Strategies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Shah, Chirag [Department of Radiation Oncology, William Beaumont Hospital, Royal Oak, MI (United States); Vicini, Frank A., E-mail: fvicini@beaumont.edu [Department of Radiation Oncology, William Beaumont Hospital, Royal Oak, MI (United States)

    2011-11-15

    As more women survive breast cancer, long-term toxicities affecting their quality of life, such as lymphedema (LE) of the arm, gain importance. Although numerous studies have attempted to determine incidence rates, identify optimal diagnostic tests, enumerate efficacious treatment strategies and outline risk reduction guidelines for breast cancer-related lymphedema (BCRL), few groups have consistently agreed on any of these issues. As a result, standardized recommendations are still lacking. This review will summarize the latest data addressing all of these concerns in order to provide patients and health care providers with optimal, contemporary recommendations. Published incidence rates for BCRL vary substantially with a range of 2-65% based on surgical technique, axillary sampling method, radiation therapy fields treated, and the use of chemotherapy. Newer clinical assessment tools can potentially identify BCRL in patients with subclinical disease with prospective data suggesting that early diagnosis and management with noninvasive therapy can lead to excellent outcomes. Multiple therapies exist with treatments defined by the severity of BCRL present. Currently, the standard of care for BCRL in patients with significant LE is complex decongestive physiotherapy (CDP). Contemporary data also suggest that a multidisciplinary approach to the management of BCRL should begin prior to definitive treatment for breast cancer employing patient-specific surgical, radiation therapy, and chemotherapy paradigms that limit risks. Further, prospective clinical assessments before and after treatment should be employed to diagnose subclinical disease. In those patients who require aggressive locoregional management, prophylactic therapies and the use of CDP can help reduce the long-term sequelae of BCRL.

  1. Community-based incidence rate of cardiovascular disease and mortality in 50-75 year old adults.

    Science.gov (United States)

    López-Suárez, A; Bascuñana-Quirell, A; Elvira-González, J; Beltrán-Robles, M; Aboza-Lobatón, A; Solís-Díaz, R

    2013-01-01

    Updated information on the incidence of the principal cardiovascular diseases (CVD) and cardiovascular mortality is not available in Spain. We have studied the incidence rate of new cases of myocardial infarction, heart failure, stroke and cardiovascular mortality in the adult population in Sanlúcar de Barrameda (Spain). A community-based prospective follow-up study was conducted. The study enrolled 858 participants aged 50-75 years who were randomly selected from the population and followed-up for 5 years. Age and gender-adjusted incidence rates of cardiovascular disease and cardiovascular mortality were calculated, obtaining complete information for 855 participants. Prognostic risk factors of new cases of cardiovascular disease were obtained using Cox proportional hazard modeling. The community-based incidence rate of heart failure was 455/100.000 persons-year. The incidence of myocardial infarction, stroke and cardiovascular mortality (506, 216 and 225/100.000 persons-year, respectively) was also very elevated. Male gender, family history of early cardiovascular disease, diabetes, hypertension and sedentary life style were independent risk factors of cardiovascular disease. The community-based incidence rate of heart failure in Sanlúcar de Barrameda (Spain) is very high, and it is the first to be reported in Spain. The incidence of myocardial infarction is among the highest in Spain. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier España, S.L. All rights reserved.

  2. THE NONLINEAR CUSP-CATASTROPHE MODEL OF THE SEDIMENT TRANSPORT RATE

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2002-01-01

    In the catastrophe theory of nonlinear science,the intensity of water-flow and the coefficient of non-uniformsediment m are regarded as two bound variables, and the in-tensity of bed-load transport Φ as the state variable in the mo-tion of non-uniform sediment in cusp-catastrophe model.Based on the standard equation of the cusp-catastrophe theo-ry, the relation equation between the intensity of bed-loadtransport Φ and the intensity of water-flow has been derivedby used coordinate transform and topology transform. The e-quation of bed load transport rate was built on the cusp-catas-trophe theory of nonlinear science. The others are applied toverify this equation, that the results calculated by the cusp-ca-tastrophe equation agree well with the other equations. Thisindicates that the cusp-catastrophe equation is reasonable, and the results fully reflect the characteristics of threshold motionand transport of non-uniform sediment. The purpose of thispaper is to explore the incipient motion and transport laws ofnon-uniform sediment from the viewpoint of nonlinear science.

  3. Low incidence rate of overt hypothyroidism compared with hyperthyroidism in an area with moderately low iodine intake

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Laurberg, P; Bülow Pedersen, I; Pedersen, K M

    1999-01-01

    In areas with relatively high iodine intake, the incidence rate of hypothyroidism is several-fold higher than that of hyperthyroidism. Recently, we found a similarly high prevalence rate of subclinical hypothyroidism compared with hyperthyroidism in a high iodine intake area, while a relatively low...... prevalence of subclinical hypothyroidism was observed in a low iodine intake area. In the present study we compared the incidence rate (newly diagnosed in primary care and at hospital) of overt hypothyroidism with that of hyperthyroidism in a well-defined geographical area in Jutland, Denmark, with an iodine...... intake around 60 microg/day. The number of personsxyears studied was 569,108. Data on hyperthyroidism have been published previously. The overall incidence of hypothyroidism was 13.5/100,000 per year (F/M 22.9/3.6), hyperthyroidism 38.7/100.000 per year (F/M 63.0/13.0). The incidence of hypothyroidism...

  4. Incidence rate and spatio-temporal clustering of type 1 diabetes in Santiago, Chile, from 1997 to 1998

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Santos JL

    2001-01-01

    Full Text Available OBJECTIVE: To estimate the incidence rate of type 1 diabetes in the urban area of Santiago, Chile, from March 21, 1997 to March 20, 1998, and to assess the spatio-temporal clustering of cases during that period. METHODS: All sixty-one incident cases were located temporally (day of diagnosis and spatially (place of residence in the area of study. Knox's method was used to assess spatio-temporal clustering of incident cases. RESULTS: The overall incidence rate of type 1 diabetes was 4.11 cases per 100,000 children aged less than 15 years per year (95% confidence interval: 3.06--5.14. The incidence rate seems to have increased since the last estimate of the incidence calculated for the years 1986--1992 in the metropolitan region of Santiago. Different combinations of space-time intervals have been evaluated to assess spatio-temporal clustering. The smallest p-value was found for the combination of critical distances of 750 meters and 60 days (uncorrected p-value = 0.048. CONCLUSIONS: Although these are preliminary results regarding space-time clustering in Santiago, exploratory analysis of the data method would suggest a possible aggregation of incident cases in space-time coordinates.

  5. Incidence rate and spatio-temporal clustering of type 1 diabetes in Santiago, Chile, from 1997 to 1998

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    JL Santos

    2001-02-01

    Full Text Available OBJECTIVE: To estimate the incidence rate of type 1 diabetes in the urban area of Santiago, Chile, from March 21, 1997 to March 20, 1998, and to assess the spatio-temporal clustering of cases during that period. METHODS: All sixty-one incident cases were located temporally (day of diagnosis and spatially (place of residence in the area of study. Knox's method was used to assess spatio-temporal clustering of incident cases. RESULTS: The overall incidence rate of type 1 diabetes was 4.11 cases per 100,000 children aged less than 15 years per year (95% confidence interval: 3.06--5.14. The incidence rate seems to have increased since the last estimate of the incidence calculated for the years 1986--1992 in the metropolitan region of Santiago. Different combinations of space-time intervals have been evaluated to assess spatio-temporal clustering. The smallest p-value was found for the combination of critical distances of 750 meters and 60 days (uncorrected p-value = 0.048. CONCLUSIONS: Although these are preliminary results regarding space-time clustering in Santiago, exploratory analysis of the data method would suggest a possible aggregation of incident cases in space-time coordinates.

  6. Association of neighbourhood unemployment rate with incident Type 2 diabetes mellitus in five German regions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Müller, G; Wellmann, J; Hartwig, S; Greiser, K H; Moebus, S; Jöckel, K-H; Schipf, S; Völzke, H; Maier, W; Meisinger, C; Tamayo, T; Rathmann, W; Berger, K

    2015-08-01

    To analyse the association of neighbourhood unemployment with incident self-reported physician-diagnosed Type 2 diabetes in a population aged 45-74 years from five German regions. Study participants were linked via their addresses at baseline to particular neighbourhoods. Individual-level data from five population-based studies were pooled and combined with contextual data on neighbourhood unemployment. Type 2 diabetes was assessed according to a self-reported physician diagnosis of diabetes. We estimated proportional hazard models (Weibull distribution) in order to obtain hazard ratios and 95% CIs of Type 2 diabetes mellitus, taking into account interval-censoring and clustering. We included 7250 participants residing in 228 inner city neighbourhoods in five German regions in our analysis. The incidence rate was 12.6 per 1000 person-years (95% CI 11.4-13.8). The risk of Type 2 diabetes mellitus was higher in men [hazard ratio 1.79 (95% CI 1.47-2.18)] than in women and higher in people with a low education level [hazard ratio 1.55 (95% CI 1.18-2.02)] than in those with a high education level. Independently of individual-level characteristics, we found a higher risk of Type 2 diabetes mellitus in neighbourhoods with high levels of unemployment [quintile 5; hazard ratio 1.72 (95% CI 1.23-2.42)] than in neighbourhoods with low unemployment (quintile 1). Low education level and high neighbourhood unemployment were independently associated with an elevated risk of Type 2 diabetes mellitus. Studies examining the impact of the residential environment on Type 2 diabetes mellitus will provide knowledge that is essential for the identification of high-risk populations. © 2014 The Authors. Diabetic Medicine © 2014 Diabetes UK.

  7. Low incidence of flexion-type supracondylar humerus fractures but high rate of complications.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kuoppala, Eira; Parviainen, Roope; Pokka, Tytti; Sirviö, Minna; Serlo, Willy; Sinikumpu, Juha-Jaakko

    2016-08-01

    Background and purpose - Supracondylar humerus fractures are the most common type of elbow fracture in children. A small proportion of them are flexion-type fractures. We analyzed their current incidence, injury history, clinical and radiographic findings, treatment, and outcomes. Patients and methods - We performed a population-based study, including all children <16 years of age. Radiographs were re-analyzed to include only flexion-type supracondylar fractures. Medical records were reviewed and outcomes were evaluated at a mean of 9 years after the injury. In addition, we performed a systematic literature review of all papers published on the topic since 1990 and compared the results with the findings of the current study. Results - During the study period, the rate of flexion-type fractures was 1.2% (7 out of 606 supracondylar humeral fractures). The mean annual incidence was 0.8 per 105. 4 fractures were multidirectionally unstable, according to the Gartland-Wilkins classification. All but 1 were operatively treated. Reduced range of motion, changed carrying angle, and ulnar nerve irritation were the most frequent short-term complications. Finally, in the long-term follow-up, mean carrying angle was 50% more in injured elbows (21°) than in uninjured elbows (14°). 4 patients of the 7 achieved a satisfactory long-term outcome according to Flynn's criteria. Interpretation - Supracondylar humeral flexion-type fractures are rare. They are usually severe injuries, often resulting in short-term and long-term complications regardless of the original surgical fixation used.

  8. Incidence Rates of Clinical Mastitis among Canadian Holsteins Classified as High, Average, or Low Immune Responders

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miglior, Filippo; Mallard, Bonnie A.

    2013-01-01

    The objective of this study was to compare the incidence rate of clinical mastitis (IRCM) between cows classified as high, average, or low for antibody-mediated immune responses (AMIR) and cell-mediated immune responses (CMIR). In collaboration with the Canadian Bovine Mastitis Research Network, 458 lactating Holsteins from 41 herds were immunized with a type 1 and a type 2 test antigen to stimulate adaptive immune responses. A delayed-type hypersensitivity test to the type 1 test antigen was used as an indicator of CMIR, and serum antibody of the IgG1 isotype to the type 2 test antigen was used for AMIR determination. By using estimated breeding values for these traits, cows were classified as high, average, or low responders. The IRCM was calculated as the number of cases of mastitis experienced over the total time at risk throughout the 2-year study period. High-AMIR cows had an IRCM of 17.1 cases per 100 cow-years, which was significantly lower than average and low responders, with 27.9 and 30.7 cases per 100 cow-years, respectively. Low-AMIR cows tended to have the most severe mastitis. No differences in the IRCM were noted when cows were classified based on CMIR, likely due to the extracellular nature of mastitis-causing pathogens. The results of this study demonstrate the desirability of breeding dairy cattle for enhanced immune responses to decrease the incidence and severity of mastitis in the Canadian dairy industry. PMID:23175290

  9. Incidence rates of specific histological types of lung cancer in Singapore Chinese dialect groups, and their aetiological significance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Law, C H; Day, N E; Shanmugaratnam, K

    1976-03-15

    Significant differences in the incidence levels of lung cancer have been observed among major Chinese dialect groups or communities (Kokkien, Teochew and Cantonese) in Singapore. Among males, the incidence rate is highest in the Hokkiens (age-standardized incidence rate per 100,000 persons per year in Hokkien 67.8, Teochew 55.3, Cantonese 54.0) and among females, it is highest in the Cantonese (Hokkien 12.4, Teochew 12.8, Cantonese 27.2). The present investigation was undertaken to determine the incidence rates of each of the main histological types of lung cancer in the Chinese population and to determine whether there are any correlations between histological patterns and the dialect group differentials that may be of aetiological significance. During the period 1968-1972, a total of 1,747 cases of lung cancer (1,285 males and 462 females) were reported to the Singapore Cancer Registry. It proved possible to type the neoplasms histologically in 476 males (37.0%) and 154 females (33.3%). Age-standardized rates by histological type were computed on the assumption that those histologically typed were a representative sample of all lung cancers. This study shows that Hokkien males have a significantly higher incidence rate of epidermoid carcinoma than the other dialect groups (Hokkien 36.1, Teochew 21.1, Cantonese 17.3). The Cantonese females have significantly higher incidence rates of both epidermoid carcinoma (Hokkien 3.7, Teochew 2.3, Cantonese 5.9) and adenocarcinoma (Hokkien 4.6, Teochew 3.6, Cantonese 11.9). Various sources of bias in studied of this type were examined; it is concluded that the differences in the histologic-specific incidence rates of lung cancer among the various Chinese dialect groups in Singapore are real and not artefactual. The significance of these findings in relation to possible aetiological factors is discussed.

  10. Spatio-seasonal modeling of the incidence rate of malaria in Mozambique

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nhalungo Delino

    2008-10-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The objective was to study the seasonal effect on the spatial distribution of the incidence of malaria in children under 10 years old living in the Manhiça district, Mozambique. Methods The data of the clinical malaria incidence were obtained from a study of two cohorts of children followed from December 1996 to July 1999. The cases were obtained by the active detection method. Hierarchical Bayesian models were used to model the incidence of malaria, including spatial correlation nested to climatic season. The models were compared with the deviance information criterion. The age and gender of the children were also taken into account. Results The incidence of malaria is associated with age, period and climate season. The incidence presents a clear spatial pattern, with a higher incidence in the neighbourhoods situated in the north and northeast of the Manhiça area. The transmission of malaria is highest during the wet season but the spatial pattern of malaria does not differ from that during the dry season. Conclusion The incidence of malaria in Manhiça presents a spatial pattern which is independent of the seasonal climatic conditions. The climate modifies the incidence of malaria in the entire region but does not change the spatial pattern of the incidence of this disease. These findings may be useful for the planning of malaria control activities. These activities can be performed taking account that the neighbourhoods with more incidence of malaria do not change over the annual climate seasons.

  11. Spatio-seasonal modeling of the incidence rate of malaria in Mozambique.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abellana, Rosa; Ascaso, Carlos; Aponte, John; Saute, Francisco; Nhalungo, Delino; Nhacolo, Ariel; Alonso, Pedro

    2008-10-31

    The objective was to study the seasonal effect on the spatial distribution of the incidence of malaria in children under 10 years old living in the Manhiça district, Mozambique. The data of the clinical malaria incidence were obtained from a study of two cohorts of children followed from December 1996 to July 1999. The cases were obtained by the active detection method. Hierarchical Bayesian models were used to model the incidence of malaria, including spatial correlation nested to climatic season. The models were compared with the deviance information criterion. The age and gender of the children were also taken into account. The incidence of malaria is associated with age, period and climate season. The incidence presents a clear spatial pattern, with a higher incidence in the neighbourhoods situated in the north and northeast of the Manhiça area. The transmission of malaria is highest during the wet season but the spatial pattern of malaria does not differ from that during the dry season. The incidence of malaria in Manhiça presents a spatial pattern which is independent of the seasonal climatic conditions. The climate modifies the incidence of malaria in the entire region but does not change the spatial pattern of the incidence of this disease. These findings may be useful for the planning of malaria control activities. These activities can be performed taking account that the neighbourhoods with more incidence of malaria do not change over the annual climate seasons.

  12. Regions of High Out-Of-Hospital Cardiac Arrest Incidence and Low Bystander CPR Rates in Victoria, Australia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Straney, Lahn D.; Bray, Janet E.; Beck, Ben; Finn, Judith; Bernard, Stephen; Dyson, Kylie; Lijovic, Marijana; Smith, Karen

    2015-01-01

    Background Out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA) remains a major public health issue and research has shown that large regional variation in outcomes exists. Of the interventions associated with survival, the provision of bystander CPR is one of the most important modifiable factors. The aim of this study is to identify census areas with high incidence of OHCA and low rates of bystander CPR in Victoria, Australia Methods We conducted an observational study using prospectively collected population-based OHCA data from the state of Victoria in Australia. Using ArcGIS (ArcMap 10.0), we linked the location of the arrest using the dispatch coordinates (longitude and latitude) to Victorian Local Government Areas (LGAs). We used Bayesian hierarchical models with random effects on each LGA to provide shrunken estimates of the rates of bystander CPR and the incidence rates. Results Over the study period there were 31,019 adult OHCA attended, of which 21,436 (69.1%) cases were of presumed cardiac etiology. Significant variation in the incidence of OHCA among LGAs was observed. There was a 3 fold difference in the incidence rate between the lowest and highest LGAs, ranging from 38.5 to 115.1 cases per 100,000 person-years. The overall rate of bystander CPR for bystander witnessed OHCAs was 62.4%, with the rate increasing from 56.4% in 2008–2010 to 68.6% in 2010–2013. There was a 25.1% absolute difference in bystander CPR rates between the highest and lowest LGAs. Conclusion Significant regional variation in OHCA incidence and bystander CPR rates exists throughout Victoria. Regions with high incidence and low bystander CPR participation can be identified and would make suitable targets for interventions to improve CPR participation rates. PMID:26447844

  13. Regions of High Out-Of-Hospital Cardiac Arrest Incidence and Low Bystander CPR Rates in Victoria, Australia.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lahn D Straney

    Full Text Available Out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA remains a major public health issue and research has shown that large regional variation in outcomes exists. Of the interventions associated with survival, the provision of bystander CPR is one of the most important modifiable factors. The aim of this study is to identify census areas with high incidence of OHCA and low rates of bystander CPR in Victoria, Australia.We conducted an observational study using prospectively collected population-based OHCA data from the state of Victoria in Australia. Using ArcGIS (ArcMap 10.0, we linked the location of the arrest using the dispatch coordinates (longitude and latitude to Victorian Local Government Areas (LGAs. We used Bayesian hierarchical models with random effects on each LGA to provide shrunken estimates of the rates of bystander CPR and the incidence rates.Over the study period there were 31,019 adult OHCA attended, of which 21,436 (69.1% cases were of presumed cardiac etiology. Significant variation in the incidence of OHCA among LGAs was observed. There was a 3 fold difference in the incidence rate between the lowest and highest LGAs, ranging from 38.5 to 115.1 cases per 100,000 person-years. The overall rate of bystander CPR for bystander witnessed OHCAs was 62.4%, with the rate increasing from 56.4% in 2008-2010 to 68.6% in 2010-2013. There was a 25.1% absolute difference in bystander CPR rates between the highest and lowest LGAs.Significant regional variation in OHCA incidence and bystander CPR rates exists throughout Victoria. Regions with high incidence and low bystander CPR participation can be identified and would make suitable targets for interventions to improve CPR participation rates.

  14. Regions of High Out-Of-Hospital Cardiac Arrest Incidence and Low Bystander CPR Rates in Victoria, Australia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Straney, Lahn D; Bray, Janet E; Beck, Ben; Finn, Judith; Bernard, Stephen; Dyson, Kylie; Lijovic, Marijana; Smith, Karen

    2015-01-01

    Out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA) remains a major public health issue and research has shown that large regional variation in outcomes exists. Of the interventions associated with survival, the provision of bystander CPR is one of the most important modifiable factors. The aim of this study is to identify census areas with high incidence of OHCA and low rates of bystander CPR in Victoria, Australia. We conducted an observational study using prospectively collected population-based OHCA data from the state of Victoria in Australia. Using ArcGIS (ArcMap 10.0), we linked the location of the arrest using the dispatch coordinates (longitude and latitude) to Victorian Local Government Areas (LGAs). We used Bayesian hierarchical models with random effects on each LGA to provide shrunken estimates of the rates of bystander CPR and the incidence rates. Over the study period there were 31,019 adult OHCA attended, of which 21,436 (69.1%) cases were of presumed cardiac etiology. Significant variation in the incidence of OHCA among LGAs was observed. There was a 3 fold difference in the incidence rate between the lowest and highest LGAs, ranging from 38.5 to 115.1 cases per 100,000 person-years. The overall rate of bystander CPR for bystander witnessed OHCAs was 62.4%, with the rate increasing from 56.4% in 2008-2010 to 68.6% in 2010-2013. There was a 25.1% absolute difference in bystander CPR rates between the highest and lowest LGAs. Significant regional variation in OHCA incidence and bystander CPR rates exists throughout Victoria. Regions with high incidence and low bystander CPR participation can be identified and would make suitable targets for interventions to improve CPR participation rates.

  15. I. Determination of chemical reaction rate constants by numerical nonlinear analysis: differential methods

    CERN Document Server

    Jesudason, Christopher G

    2011-01-01

    The primary emphasis of this work on kinetics is to illustrate the a posteriori approach to applications, where focus on data leads to novel outcomes, rather than the a priori tendencies of applied analysis which imposes constructs on the nature of the observable. The secondary intention is the development of appropriate methods consonant with experimental definitions. By focusing on gradients, it is possible to determine both the average and instantaneous rate constants that can monitor changes in the rate constant with concentration changes as suggested by this theory. Here, methods are developed and discussed utilizing nonlinear analysis which does not require exact knowledge of initial concentrations. These methods are compared with those derived from standard methodology. These gradient methods are shown to be consistent with the ones from standard methods and could readily serve as alternatives for studies where there are limits or unknowns in the initial conditions, such as in the burgeoning fields of ...

  16. Achievable information rates estimates in optically amplified transmission systems using nonlinearity compensation and probabilistic shaping.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Semrau, Daniel; Xu, Tianhua; Shevchenko, Nikita A; Paskov, Milen; Alvarado, Alex; Killey, Robert I; Bayvel, Polina

    2017-01-01

    Achievable information rates (AIRs) of wideband optical communication systems using a ∼40  nm (∼5  THz) erbium-doped fiber amplifier and ∼100  nm (∼12.5  THz) distributed Raman amplification are estimated based on a first-order perturbation analysis. The AIRs of each individual channel have been evaluated for DP-64QAM, DP-256QAM, and DP-1024QAM modulation formats. The impact of full-field nonlinear compensation (FF-NLC) and probabilistically shaped constellations using a Maxwell-Boltzmann distribution were studied and compared to electronic dispersion compensation. It has been found that a probabilistically shaped DP-1024QAM constellation, combined with FF-NLC, yields achievable information rates of ∼75  Tbit/s for the EDFA scheme and ∼223  Tbit/s for the Raman amplification scheme over a 2000 km standard single-mode fiber transmission.

  17. Nonlinear Least-Squares Time-Difference Estimation from Sub-Nyquist-Rate Samples

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harada, Koji; Sakai, Hideaki

    In this paper, time-difference estimation of filtered random signals passed through multipath channels is discussed. First, we reformulate the approach based on innovation-rate sampling (IRS) to fit our random signal model, then use the IRS results to drive the nonlinear least-squares (NLS) minimization algorithm. This hybrid approach (referred to as the IRS-NLS method) provides consistent estimates even for cases with sub-Nyquist sampling assuming the use of compactly-supported sampling kernels that satisfies the recently-developed nonaliasing condition in the frequency domain. Numerical simulations show that the proposed NLS-IRS method can improve performance over the straight-forward IRS method, and provides approximately the same performance as the NLS method with reduced sampling rate, even for closely-spaced time delays. This enables, given a fixed observation time, significant reduction in the required number of samples, while maintaining the same level of estimation performance.

  18. State Anxiety and Nonlinear Dynamics of Heart Rate Variability in Students

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dimitriev, Aleksey D.

    2016-01-01

    Objectives Clinical and experimental research studies have demonstrated that the emotional experience of anxiety impairs heart rate variability (HRV) in humans. The present study investigated whether changes in state anxiety (SA) can also modulate nonlinear dynamics of heart rate. Methods A group of 96 students volunteered to participate in the study. For each student, two 5-minute recordings of beat intervals (RR) were performed: one during a rest period and one just before a university examination, which was assumed to be a real-life stressor. Nonlinear analysis of HRV was performed. The Spielberger’s State-Trait Anxiety Inventory was used to assess the level of SA. Results Before adjusting for heart rate, a Wilcoxon matched pairs test showed significant decreases in Poincaré plot measures, entropy, largest Lyapunov exponent (LLE), and pointwise correlation dimension (PD2), and an increase in the short-term fractal-like scaling exponent of detrended fluctuation analysis (α1) during the exam session, compared with the rest period. A Pearson analysis indicated significant negative correlations between the dynamics of SA and Poincaré plot axes ratio (SD1/SD2), and between changes in SA and changes in entropy measures. A strong negative correlation was found between the dynamics of SA and LLE. A significant positive correlation was found between the dynamics of SA and α1. The decreases in Poincaré plot measures (SD1, complex correlation measure), entropy measures, and LLE were still significant after adjusting for heart rate. Corrected α1 was increased during the exam session. As before, the dynamics of adjusted LLE was significantly correlated with the dynamics of SA. Conclusions The qualitative increase in SA during academic examination was related to the decrease in the complexity and size of the Poincaré plot through a reduction of both the interbeat interval and its variation. PMID:26807793

  19. State Anxiety and Nonlinear Dynamics of Heart Rate Variability in Students.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dimitriy A Dimitriev

    Full Text Available Clinical and experimental research studies have demonstrated that the emotional experience of anxiety impairs heart rate variability (HRV in humans. The present study investigated whether changes in state anxiety (SA can also modulate nonlinear dynamics of heart rate.A group of 96 students volunteered to participate in the study. For each student, two 5-minute recordings of beat intervals (RR were performed: one during a rest period and one just before a university examination, which was assumed to be a real-life stressor. Nonlinear analysis of HRV was performed. The Spielberger's State-Trait Anxiety Inventory was used to assess the level of SA.Before adjusting for heart rate, a Wilcoxon matched pairs test showed significant decreases in Poincaré plot measures, entropy, largest Lyapunov exponent (LLE, and pointwise correlation dimension (PD2, and an increase in the short-term fractal-like scaling exponent of detrended fluctuation analysis (α1 during the exam session, compared with the rest period. A Pearson analysis indicated significant negative correlations between the dynamics of SA and Poincaré plot axes ratio (SD1/SD2, and between changes in SA and changes in entropy measures. A strong negative correlation was found between the dynamics of SA and LLE. A significant positive correlation was found between the dynamics of SA and α1. The decreases in Poincaré plot measures (SD1, complex correlation measure, entropy measures, and LLE were still significant after adjusting for heart rate. Corrected α1 was increased during the exam session. As before, the dynamics of adjusted LLE was significantly correlated with the dynamics of SA.The qualitative increase in SA during academic examination was related to the decrease in the complexity and size of the Poincaré plot through a reduction of both the interbeat interval and its variation.

  20. Dynamics of a Delayed HIV-1 Infection Model with Saturation Incidence Rate and CTL Immune Response

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guo, Ting; Liu, Haihong; Xu, Chenglin; Yan, Fang

    2016-12-01

    In this paper, we investigate the dynamics of a five-dimensional virus model incorporating saturation incidence rate, CTL immune response and three time delays which represent the latent period, virus production period and immune response delay, respectively. We begin this model by proving the positivity and boundedness of the solutions. Our model admits three possible equilibrium solutions, namely the infection-free equilibrium E0, the infectious equilibrium without immune response E1 and the infectious equilibrium with immune response E2. Moreover, by analyzing corresponding characteristic equations, the local stability of each of the feasible equilibria and the existence of Hopf bifurcation at the equilibrium point E2 are established, respectively. Further, by using fluctuation lemma and suitable Lyapunov functionals, it is shown that E0 is globally asymptotically stable when the basic reproductive numbers for viral infection R0 is less than unity. When the basic reproductive numbers for immune response R1 is less than unity and R0 is greater than unity, the equilibrium point E1 is globally asymptotically stable. Finally, some numerical simulations are carried out for illustrating the theoretical results.

  1. Comparing shingles incidence and complication rates from medical record review and administrative database estimates: how close are they?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yawn, Barbara P; Wollan, Peter; St Sauver, Jennifer

    2011-11-01

    Accurate rates of herpes zoster incidence and complication have become of greater interest as studies have suggested an increasing temporal trend in incidence rates across all age groups and long-term follow-up studies of vaccine effectiveness are required by the Food and Drug Administration. This study compares the results obtained from the most commonly used method to obtain herpes zoster data (rates obtained from administrative data) with results obtained when administrative data are supplemented by medical record review. Administrative billing code data identified 1,959 cases of herpes zoster in Olmsted County, Minnesota, adults between January 1, 1996, and December 31, 2001. Of those 1,959 cases, 1,669 (85.2%) could be confirmed by medical record review, a decrease in incidence rate of 14.8%, resulting in a decrease of 0.61/1,000 person-years when adjusted to the US adult population. Complication rates were also significantly different between the 2 methods. It is not clear if the 15% decrease in incidence rates would be seen in every administrative data set or if the lack of confirmation of cases may be variable in both validity and reproducibility between data sets, making estimations in temporal trends and pre/post-vaccine rates difficult to compare across data resources.

  2. Evolution of supersaturation of amorphous pharmaceuticals: nonlinear rate of supersaturation generation regulated by matrix diffusion.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, Dajun D; Lee, Ping I

    2015-04-06

    The importance of rate of supersaturation generation on the kinetic solubility profiles of amorphous systems has recently been shown by us; however, the previous focus was limited to constant rates of supersaturation generation. The objective of the current study is to further examine the effect of nonlinear rate profiles of supersaturation generation in amorphous systems, including (1) instantaneous or infinite rate (i.e., initial degree of supersaturation), (2) first-order rate (e.g., from dissolution of amorphous drug particles), and (3) matrix diffusion regulated rate (e.g., drug release from amorphous solid dispersions (ASDs) based on cross-linked poly(2-hydroxyethyl methacrylate) (PHEMA) hydrogels), on the kinetic solubility profiles of a model poorly soluble drug indomethacin (IND) under nonsink dissolution conditions. The previously established mechanistic model taking into consideration both the crystal growth and ripening processes was extended to predict the evolution of supersaturation resulting from nonlinear rates of supersaturation generation. Our results confirm that excessively high initial supersaturation or a rapid supersaturation generation leads to a surge in maximum supersaturation followed by a rapid decrease in drug concentration owing to supersaturation-induced precipitation; however, an exceedingly low degree of supersaturation or a slow rate of supersaturation generation does not sufficiently raise the supersaturation level, which results in a lower but broader maximum kinetic solubility profile. Our experimental data suggest that an optimal area-under-the-curve of the kinetic solubility profiles exists at an intermediate initial supersaturation level for the amorphous systems studied here, which agrees well with the predicted trend. Our model predictions also support our experimental findings that IND ASD in cross-linked PHEMA exhibits a unique kinetic solubility profile because the resulting supersaturation level is governed by a matrix

  3. Linear and nonlinear analysis of normal and CAD-affected heart rate signals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Acharya, U Rajendra; Faust, Oliver; Sree, Vinitha; Swapna, G; Martis, Roshan Joy; Kadri, Nahrizul Adib; Suri, Jasjit S

    2014-01-01

    Coronary artery disease (CAD) is one of the dangerous cardiac disease, often may lead to sudden cardiac death. It is difficult to diagnose CAD by manual inspection of electrocardiogram (ECG) signals. To automate this detection task, in this study, we extracted the heart rate (HR) from the ECG signals and used them as base signal for further analysis. We then analyzed the HR signals of both normal and CAD subjects using (i) time domain, (ii) frequency domain and (iii) nonlinear techniques. The following are the nonlinear methods that were used in this work: Poincare plots, Recurrence Quantification Analysis (RQA) parameters, Shannon entropy, Approximate Entropy (ApEn), Sample Entropy (SampEn), Higher Order Spectra (HOS) methods, Detrended Fluctuation Analysis (DFA), Empirical Mode Decomposition (EMD), Cumulants, and Correlation Dimension. As a result of the analysis, we present unique recurrence, Poincare and HOS plots for normal and CAD subjects. We have also observed significant variations in the range of these features with respect to normal and CAD classes, and have presented the same in this paper. We found that the RQA parameters were higher for CAD subjects indicating more rhythm. Since the activity of CAD subjects is less, similar signal patterns repeat more frequently compared to the normal subjects. The entropy based parameters, ApEn and SampEn, are lower for CAD subjects indicating lower entropy (less activity due to impairment) for CAD. Almost all HOS parameters showed higher values for the CAD group, indicating the presence of higher frequency content in the CAD signals. Thus, our study provides a deep insight into how such nonlinear features could be exploited to effectively and reliably detect the presence of CAD. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  4. Modelling nonlinear behavior of labor force participation rate by STAR: An application for Turkey

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    Sibel Cengiz

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this paper is to contribute to the understanding of the behavior of participation rates in terms of gender differences. We employed smooth autoregressive transition models for the quarterly Turkish labor force participation rates (LFPR data between 2000: Q1 - 2011: Q4 to present an asymmetric participation behavior. The smoothness parameter indicates a gradual transition from low to high regimes. It is higher for female workers compared to the male workers. Participation rates diminish during a recession but they increase smoothly during the periods of expansion. The estimation results of Enders et al. (1998 also verified the asymmetry and nonlinearity in participation rates. During periods of economic expansion, they are higher than the threshold but the low regime indicator function takes the value zero. The results of the paper have economic implications for policy makers. Due to the discouraged worker and added worker effects, LFPR should be observed with the unemployment rates while evaluating the tightness of the labor market.

  5. Detecting outliers when fitting data with nonlinear regression - a new method based on robust nonlinear regression and the false discovery rate.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Motulsky, Harvey J; Brown, Ronald E

    2006-03-09

    Nonlinear regression, like linear regression, assumes that the scatter of data around the ideal curve follows a Gaussian or normal distribution. This assumption leads to the familiar goal of regression: to minimize the sum of the squares of the vertical or Y-value distances between the points and the curve. Outliers can dominate the sum-of-the-squares calculation, and lead to misleading results. However, we know of no practical method for routinely identifying outliers when fitting curves with nonlinear regression. We describe a new method for identifying outliers when fitting data with nonlinear regression. We first fit the data using a robust form of nonlinear regression, based on the assumption that scatter follows a Lorentzian distribution. We devised a new adaptive method that gradually becomes more robust as the method proceeds. To define outliers, we adapted the false discovery rate approach to handling multiple comparisons. We then remove the outliers, and analyze the data using ordinary least-squares regression. Because the method combines robust regression and outlier removal, we call it the ROUT method. When analyzing simulated data, where all scatter is Gaussian, our method detects (falsely) one or more outlier in only about 1-3% of experiments. When analyzing data contaminated with one or several outliers, the ROUT method performs well at outlier identification, with an average False Discovery Rate less than 1%. Our method, which combines a new method of robust nonlinear regression with a new method of outlier identification, identifies outliers from nonlinear curve fits with reasonable power and few false positives.

  6. Detecting outliers when fitting data with nonlinear regression – a new method based on robust nonlinear regression and the false discovery rate

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Motulsky Harvey J

    2006-03-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Nonlinear regression, like linear regression, assumes that the scatter of data around the ideal curve follows a Gaussian or normal distribution. This assumption leads to the familiar goal of regression: to minimize the sum of the squares of the vertical or Y-value distances between the points and the curve. Outliers can dominate the sum-of-the-squares calculation, and lead to misleading results. However, we know of no practical method for routinely identifying outliers when fitting curves with nonlinear regression. Results We describe a new method for identifying outliers when fitting data with nonlinear regression. We first fit the data using a robust form of nonlinear regression, based on the assumption that scatter follows a Lorentzian distribution. We devised a new adaptive method that gradually becomes more robust as the method proceeds. To define outliers, we adapted the false discovery rate approach to handling multiple comparisons. We then remove the outliers, and analyze the data using ordinary least-squares regression. Because the method combines robust regression and outlier removal, we call it the ROUT method. When analyzing simulated data, where all scatter is Gaussian, our method detects (falsely one or more outlier in only about 1–3% of experiments. When analyzing data contaminated with one or several outliers, the ROUT method performs well at outlier identification, with an average False Discovery Rate less than 1%. Conclusion Our method, which combines a new method of robust nonlinear regression with a new method of outlier identification, identifies outliers from nonlinear curve fits with reasonable power and few false positives.

  7. Nonlinear Methods to Assess Changes in Heart Rate Variability in Type 2 Diabetic Patients

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bhaskar, Roy, E-mail: imbhaskarall@gmail.com [Indian Institute of Technology (India); University of Connecticut, Farmington, CT (United States); Ghatak, Sobhendu [Indian Institute of Technology (India)

    2013-10-15

    Heart rate variability (HRV) is an important indicator of autonomic modulation of cardiovascular function. Diabetes can alter cardiac autonomic modulation by damaging afferent inputs, thereby increasing the risk of cardiovascular disease. We applied nonlinear analytical methods to identify parameters associated with HRV that are indicative of changes in autonomic modulation of heart function in diabetic patients. We analyzed differences in HRV patterns between diabetic and age-matched healthy control subjects using nonlinear methods. Lagged Poincaré plot, autocorrelation, and detrended fluctuation analysis were applied to analyze HRV in electrocardiography (ECG) recordings. Lagged Poincare plot analysis revealed significant changes in some parameters, suggestive of decreased parasympathetic modulation. The detrended fluctuation exponent derived from long-term fitting was higher than the short-term one in the diabetic population, which was also consistent with decreased parasympathetic input. The autocorrelation function of the deviation of inter-beat intervals exhibited a highly correlated pattern in the diabetic group compared with the control group. The HRV pattern significantly differs between diabetic patients and healthy subjects. All three statistical methods employed in the study may prove useful to detect the onset and extent of autonomic neuropathy in diabetic patients.

  8. Cancer incidence and patient survival rates among the residents in the Pudong New Area of Shanghai between 2002 and 2006

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Xiao-Pan Li; Guang-Wen Cao; Qiao Sun; Chen Yang; Bei Yan; Mei-Yu Zhang; Yi-Fei Fu; Li-Ming Yang

    2013-01-01

    With the growing threat of malignancy to health, it is necessary to analyze cancer incidence and patient survival rates among the residents in Pudong New Area of Shanghai to formulate better cancer prevention strategies. A total of 43,613 cancer patients diagnosed between 2002 and 2006 were recruited from the Pudong New Area Cancer Registry. The incidence, observed survival rate, and relative survival rate of patients grouped by sex, age, geographic area, and TNM stage were calculated using the Kaplan-Meier, life table, and Ederer II methods, respectively. Between 2002 and 2006, cancer incidence in Pudong New Area was 349.99 per 100,000 person-years, and the 10 most frequently diseased sites were the lung, stomach, colon and rectum, liver, breast, esophagus, pancreas, brain and central nervous system, thyroid, and bladder. For patients with cancers of the colon and rectum, breast, thyroid, brain and central nervous system, and bladder, the 5-year relative survival rate was greater than 40%, whereas patients with cancers of the liver and pancreas had a 5-year relative survival rate of less than 10%. The 1-year to 5-year survival rates for patients grouped by sex, age, geographic area, and TNM stage differed significantly (al P<0.001). Our results indicate that cancer incidence and patient survival in Pudong New Area vary by tumor type, sex, age, geographic area, and TNM stage.

  9. Functional Time Series Models to Estimate Future Age-Specific Breast Cancer Incidence Rates for Women in Karachi, Pakistan

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Farah Yasmeen[1; Sidra Zaheer[2

    2014-01-01

    Background: Breast cancer is the most common female cancer in Pakistan. The incidence of breast cancer in Pakistan is about 2.5 times higher than that in the neighboring countries India and Iran. In Karachi, the most populated city of Pakistan, the age-standardized rate of breast cancer was 69.1 per 100,000 women during 1998-2002, which is the highest recorded rate in Asia. The carcinoma of breast in Pakistan is an enormous public health concern. In this study, we examined the recent trends of breast cancer incidence rates among the women in Karachi. Methods: We obtained the secondary data of breast cancer incidence from various hospitals. They included Jinnah Hospital, KIRAN (Karachi Institute of Radiotherapy and Nuclear Medicine), and Civil hospital, where the data were available for the years 2004-2011. A total of 5331 new cases of female breast cancer were registered during this period. We analyzed the data in 5-year age groups 15-19, 20-24, 25-29, 30-34, 35-39, 40-44, 45-49, 50-54, 55-59, 60-64, 65-69, 70-74, 75+. Nonparametric smoothing were used to obtained age-specific incidence curves, and then the curves are decomposed using principal components analysis to fit FTS (functional time series) model. We then used exponential smoothing statspace models to estimate the forecasts of incidence curve and construct prediction intervals. Results: The breast cancer incidence rates in Karachi increased with age for all available years. The rates increased monotonically and are relatively sharp with the age from 15 years to 50 years and then they show variability after the age of 50 years. 10-year forecasts for the female breast cancer incidence rates in Karachi show that the future rates are expected to remain stable for the age-groups 15-50 years, but they will increase for the females of 50-years and over. Hence in future, the newly diagnosed breast cancer cases in the older women in Karachi are expected to increase. Conclusion: Prediction of age

  10. Multiple-input multiple-output symbol rate signal digital predistorter for non-linear multi-carrier satellite channels

    OpenAIRE

    Zenteno, Efrain; Piazza, Roberto; M. R. Bhavani Shankar; Rönnow, Daniel; Ottersten, Björn

    2015-01-01

    A digital predistortion (DPD) scheme is presented for non-linear distortion mitigation in multi-carrier satellite communication channels. The proposed DPD has a multiple-input multiple-output architecture similar to data DPD schemes. However, it enhances the mitigation performance of data DPDs using a multi-rate processing algorithm to achieve spectrum broadening of non-linear operators. Compared to single carrier (single-input single-output) signal (waveform) DPD schemes, the proposed DPD ha...

  11. Finger tapping movements of Parkinson's disease patients automatically rated using nonlinear delay differential equations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lainscsek, C.; Rowat, P.; Schettino, L.; Lee, D.; Song, D.; Letellier, C.; Poizner, H.

    2012-03-01

    Parkinson's disease is a degenerative condition whose severity is assessed by clinical observations of motor behaviors. These are performed by a neurological specialist through subjective ratings of a variety of movements including 10-s bouts of repetitive finger-tapping movements. We present here an algorithmic rating of these movements which may be beneficial for uniformly assessing the progression of the disease. Finger-tapping movements were digitally recorded from Parkinson's patients and controls, obtaining one time series for every 10 s bout. A nonlinear delay differential equation, whose structure was selected using a genetic algorithm, was fitted to each time series and its coefficients were used as a six-dimensional numerical descriptor. The algorithm was applied to time-series from two different groups of Parkinson's patients and controls. The algorithmic scores compared favorably with the unified Parkinson's disease rating scale scores, at least when the latter adequately matched with ratings from the Hoehn and Yahr scale. Moreover, when the two sets of mean scores for all patients are compared, there is a strong (r = 0.785) and significant (p <0.0015) correlation between them.

  12. Study on Rail Profile Optimization Based on the Nonlinear Relationship between Profile and Wear Rate

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jianxi Wang

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper proposes a rail profile optimization method that takes account of wear rate within design cycle so as to minimize rail wear at the curve in heavy haul railway and extend the service life of rail. Taking rail wear rate as the object function, the vertical coordinate of rail profile at range optimization as independent variable, and the geometric characteristics and grinding depth of rail profile as constraint conditions, the support vector machine regression theory was used to fit the nonlinear relationship between rail profile and its wear rate. Then, the profile optimization model was built. Based on the optimization principle of genetic algorithm, the profile optimization model was solved to achieve the optimal rail profile. A multibody dynamics model was used to check the dynamic performance of carriage running on optimal rail profile. The result showed that the average relative error of support vector machine regression model remained less than 10% after a number of training processes. The dynamic performance of carriage running on optimized rail profile met the requirements on safety index and stability. The wear rate of optimized profile was lower than that of standard profile by 5.8%; the allowable carrying gross weight increased by 12.7%.

  13. Survey on th incidence of homeless pulmonary tuberculosis infection rate through chest x-ray examination

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kim, Mi Young; Shin, Sung Rae [Dept. of Nursing, Sahmyook University, Seoul (Korea, Republic of); Ryu, Young Hwan [Dept. of Radiology, Seoul Medical Center, Seoul (Korea, Republic of); Lim, Hwan Yeal [Dept. of Medical Business Administration, U1 University, Yeongdong (Korea, Republic of)

    2017-02-15

    This study, Seoul City shelter, you are trying to seek medical cooperation and cure rate increase proposal Yu fndings’s current situation and tuberculosis of homeless tuberculosis. Inspector, and has a total 591 people is targeted to implement an interview after acquiring utilization agreement in studies conducted chest X-ray photography. Of the interview questions, three or more protons, it is determined that the TB symptomatic conducted sputum examination, chest X-ray examination confrms the physician radiology, when sputum examination primarily chromatic fndings the double implemented and conducted by requesting the ship inspection also said inspection sputum acid-fast bacteria if it is true one, respectively. confrmed case result of checking whether there is a difference due to risk factors (Jb) at the chi square black, it was found that there is no statistically significant difference at 95% confidence level. (χ{sup 2}=0.276, p>0.05), suspected case (Ac, Ae) results of examining whether there is a difference due to risk factors in chi square black, that there is a statistically significant difference at 99% confidence level is I found (χ{sup 2}=9.414, p<0.01). The nature of the homeless tuberculosis screening and directed to the distance homeless specifc location are likely to evaluate the actual incidence low and aggressive or management needs, the rationale is allowed insufficient reality is. Through this research, future, for tuberculosis high risk tuberculosis patient, such as homeless to expand the tuberculosis screening of infectious tuberculosis patients in private medical institutions, and one-stop service that chest X-ray examination and sputum examination is carried out at the same time introduced immediately to prevent the inspection and examination, cure, and should establish a foundation that can be up to post administration.

  14. Geographic Variation of the Incidence Rate of Lower Limb Amputation in Australia from 2007-12

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fortington, Lauren V.; Akram, Muhammad; Erbas, Bircan; Kohler, Friedbert

    2017-01-01

    In Australia, little is known about how the incidence rate (IR) of lower limb amputation (LLA) varies across the country. While studies in other economically developed countries have shown considerable geographic variation in the IR-LLA, mostly these have not considered whether the effect of common risk factors are the same across regions. Mapping variation of the IR-LLA, and the effect of common risk factors, is an important first step to focus research into areas of greatest need and support the development of regional specific hypotheses for in-depth examination. The aim of this study was to describe the geographic variation in the IR-LLA across Australia and understand whether the effect of common risk factors was the same across regions. Using hospital episode data from the Australian National Hospital Morbidity database and Australian Bureau of Statistics, the all-cause crude and age-standardised IR-LLA in males and females were calculated for the nation and each state and territory. Generalised Linear Models were developed to understand which factors influenced geographic variation in the crude IR-LLA. While the crude and age-standardised IR-LLA in males and females were similar in most states and territories, they were higher in the Northern Territory. The effect of older age, being male and the presence of type 2 diabetes was associated with an increase of IR-LLA in most states and territories. In the Northern Territory, the younger age at amputation confounded the effect of sex and type 2 diabetes. There are likely to be many factors not included in this investigation, such as Indigenous status, that may explain part of the variation in the IR-LLA not captured in our models. Further research is needed to identify regional- and population- specific factors that could be modified to reduce the IR-LLA in all states and territories of Australia. PMID:28118408

  15. Incidence Rate of Acute Encephalitis Syndrome without Specific Treatment in India and Nepal

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    Nagabhushana Rao Potharaju

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Background: A performance target (PT for the incidence rate (IR of acute encephalitis syndrome (AES was not defined by the World Health Organization (WHO due to lack of data. There is no specific treatment for ~90% of the AES cases. Objectives: (1 To determine the IR of AES not having specific treatment (AESn in two countries, India and Nepal. (2 To suggest the PT. Subjects and Methods: This was a record-based study of the entire population of India and Nepal from 1978 to 2011. The WHO definition was used for inclusion of cases. Cases that had specific treatment were excluded. IR was calculated per 100,000 population per annum. Forecast IR was generated from 2010 to 2013 using time-series analysis. Results: There were 165,461 cases from 1978 to 2011, of which 125,030 cases were from India and 40,431 were from Nepal. The mean IR of India was 0.42 (s 0.24 and that of Nepal was 5.23 (s 3.03. IRs of 2010 and 2011 of India and that of 2011 of Nepal were closer to the mean IR rather than the forecast IR. IR of 2010 of Nepal was closer to the forecast IR. The forecast IR for India for 2012 was 0.49 (0.19-1.06, for 2013 was 0.42 (0.15-0.97 and for Nepal for both 2012 and 2013 was 5.62 (1.53-15.05. Conclusions: IRs were considerably different for India and Nepal. Using the current mean IR as PT for the next year was simple and practical. Using forecasting was complex and, less frequently, useful.

  16. Mathematical Formalism of Nonequilibrium Thermodynamics for Nonlinear Chemical Reaction Systems with General Rate Law

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ge, Hao; Qian, Hong

    2017-01-01

    This paper studies a mathematical formalism of nonequilibrium thermodynamics for chemical reaction models with N species, M reactions, and general rate law. We establish a mathematical basis for J. W. Gibbs' macroscopic chemical thermodynamics under G. N. Lewis' kinetic law of entire equilibrium (detailed balance in nonlinear chemical kinetics). In doing so, the equilibrium thermodynamics is then naturally generalized to nonequilibrium settings without detailed balance. The kinetic models are represented by a Markovian jumping process. A generalized macroscopic chemical free energy function and its associated balance equation with nonnegative source and sink are the major discoveries. The proof is based on the large deviation principle of this type of Markov processes. A general fluctuation dissipation theorem for stochastic reaction kinetics is also proved. The mathematical theory illustrates how a novel macroscopic dynamic law can emerges from the mesoscopic kinetics in a multi-scale system.

  17. Evaluating non-linear models on point and interval forecasts: an application with exchange rates

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    Emanuela Marrocu

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this paper is to compare the forecasting performance of SETAR and GARCH models against a linear benchmark using historical data for the returns of the Japanese yen/US dollar exchange rate. The relative performance of the models is evaluated on point forecasts and on interval forecasts. Point forecasts evaluation over the whole forecast period indicates that the performance of the models, when distinguishable, tends to favour the linear models. However, we show that if the evaluation of point forecasts is conducted over distinct subsamples or specific regimes there is more evidence of forecasting gains, especially from the SETAR models. Moreover, when we evaluate the validity of interval forecasts, the results produce clear evidence of the superiority of the non-linear models, and tend to favour especially the GARCH models.

  18. The Appropriate Model and Dependence Measures of Thailand’s Exchange Rate and Malaysia’s Exchange Rate: Linear, Nonlinear and Copulas Approach

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    Pisit Leeahtam

    2011-10-01

    Full Text Available The objectives of this study are to find the fitting model and dependence measures of both Thailand’s exchange rate and Malaysia’s exchange rate during, between, and after the World’s recent financial crises based on linear, nonlinear and empirical copula approaches.The results of the study confirm that the nonlinear model (NNTs is an appropriate model for Thailand’s exchange rate return in percentage during the periods of 2008-2011but not for Malaysia’s exchange rate return. Based on empirical copula approach, the dependence measures are very small between Thailand’s exchange and Malaysia’s exchange. This seems to suggest that when global economy is affected by World’s financial crisis, the nonlinear approach should be used to predict Thailand’s exchange rate return in percentage. In addition, it suggests that both the nonlinear and linear approaches should be used to predict the Malaysia’s exchange rate return in percentage. Moreover, the relationship between the exchange rate of Thailand and that of Malaysia is not strong.This is also true for the currencies of both countries.

  19. Age – specific incidence rate change at breast Cancer and its different histopathologic subtypes in Iran and Western countries

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hosseini, Maryam Sadat; Arab, Maliheh; Nemati Honar, Behzad; Noghabaei, Giti; Safaei, Nazanin; Ghasemi, Tahereh; Farzaneh, Farah; Ashraf Ganjoie, Tahereh

    2013-01-01

    Objective: The aim of the present study was to determine the frequency and age-specific incidence rate of different histopathologic subtypes of breast cancer in Iran, and compare it to neighboring and Western countries and to discuss the probable effective main factors. Methods: National data from cancer registry for 6265 female breast cancer patients were studied in 10 histopathologic groups. Results: The most common tumor was ductal carcinoma (89%). The peak age – specific incidence rate of breast cancer in total, and for epithelial, non-epithelial and ductal carcinomas were all 50-59 years, and it decreased in older age. It is in contrast to US SEER report which shows the incidence increases in higher age. Conclusion: Three main factors including younger age of Iranian patients, probable more ERN tumors and different histopathological profile of breast cancer in Iran might be considered and studied to explain different slope of breast cancer after menopause compared to other countries. PMID:24550952

  20. Determination and comparison of incidence rate and trend ofmorbidity of leukemia and lymphoma in Mazandaran province (1376-1382

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    B. Tahmasebi

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available Background and purpose: Malignancies are the second most important cause of mortality in many countries. Leukemia and lymphoma happen with significantly high incidence rates throughout the world particularly in Iran where it causes remarkable mortality as well as high diagnosis and treatment expenditures for both families and health system. Leukemia and lymphoma totally include about 11 percent of cancers in Mazandaran province. The purpose of this study was a general and specific description of leukemia and lymphoma in Mazandaran province.Materials and Methods: In this study, the medical records of all patients with certain diagnosis of leukemia and lymphoma along with valid laboratory or pathology reports were reviewed from 1376-1382. Data collection was undertaken by Babol health research center affiliated to Tehran University Medical Sciences. This research consists of cross-sectional, descriptive and analytic studies and examines variables including: age, sex, city of inhabitation, year of incidence and type of malignancy. The incidence rates in 100,000 persons of related population have been calculated and analyzed.Results: In Mazandaran province, 1146 cases of leukemia (lymphoidic and myeloidic and lymphoma (Hodgkin's and non Hodgkin's were diagnosed from 1376-1382. an average of 5.9 leukemia and lymphoma cases per 100,000 occure annually. The highest incidence rates were obtained at age of 70 or above (26.4 and the least at age of 0-9 (2.26.The incidence rates in males and females were 7.05 and 4.76 respectively and the male to female incidence rate was 1.48. The highest incidence rate was observed in Babol (7.29 and the least was equally calculated in Neka and Tonekabon (1.47. The highest and lowest incidence were obtained in 1380 (7.75 and 1377 (3.15 respectively. Regarding the type of malignancy, non Hodgkin lymphoma, 2.53 in 100000 persons, was the most prevalent and myeloidic leukemia, 1.07 in 100000 persons, the least prevalent

  1. Incidence rates of in-hospital carpal tunnel syndrome in the general population and possible associations with marital status

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Melani Carla

    2008-10-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Carpal tunnel syndrome (CTS is a socially relevant condition associated with biomechanical risk factors. We evaluated age-sex-specific incidence rates of in-hospital cases of CTS in central/northern Italy and explored relations with marital status. Methods Seven regions were considered (overall population, 14.9 million over 3–6-year periods between 1997 and 2002 (when out-of-hospital CTS surgery was extremely rare. Incidence rates of in-hospital cases of CTS were estimated based on 1 codified demographic, diagnostic and intervention data in obligatory discharge records from all Italian public/private hospitals, archived (according to residence on regional databases; 2 demographic general population data for each region. We compared (using the χscore test age-sex-specific rates between married, unmarried, divorced and widowed subsets of the general population. We calculated standardized incidence ratios (SIRs for married/unmarried men and women. Results Age-standardized incidence rates (per 100,000 person-years of in-hospital cases of CTS were 166 in women and 44 in men (106 overall. Married subjects of both sexes showed higher age-specific rates with respect to unmarried men/women. SIRs were calculated comparing married vs unmarried rates of both sexes: 1.59 (95% confidence interval [95% CI], 1.57–1.60 in women, and 1.42 (95% CI, 1.40–1.45 in men. As compared with married women/men, widows/widowers both showed 2–3-fold higher incidence peaks during the fourth decade of life (beyond 50 years of age, widowed subjects showed similar trends to unmarried counterparts. Conclusion This large population-based study illustrates distinct age-related trends in men and women, and also raises the question whether marital status could be associated with CTS in the general population.

  2. The incidence rates of endometrial hyperplasia and endometrial cancer: a four-year population-based study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jin-Sung Yuk

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available Introduction The aim of this study was to determine the incidence rates of endometrial hyperplasia (EH and endometrial cancer (EC in the Republic of Korea using national insurance claim data generated from 2009 to 2012. Materials and Methods Data that were generated from 2009 to 2012 were sourced from the Korean Health Insurance Review and Assessment Service-National Inpatients Sample database. The data from women who were assigned diagnosis codes representing EH or EC within 1 month of being assigned codes that corresponded to procedures that included endometrial biopsies and several types of gynecologic surgeries to obtain endometrial pathology samples, were selected for analysis. Results Data from 2,477,424 women were entered into the database between 2009 and 2012, and the data from 1,868 women with EH and 868 women with EC were extracted for analysis. The mean ages of the patients were 44.1 ± 0.4 years for those with EH and 52.7 ± 0.6 years for those with EC. The EH and EC incidence rates were 37 per 100,000 woman-years and 8 per 100,000 woman-years, respectively. The EH and EC incidence rates peaked when the women were in their late forties and fifties, respectively. Conclusions The EH and EC incidence rates determined in this study were somewhat lower than those determined from previous studies. Further studies are required that adjust the data for race, menopausal hormone therapy, and obesity.

  3. Incidência de tuberculose e taxa de cura, Brasil, 2000 a 2004 Tuberculosis incidence and cure rates, Brazil, 2000-2004

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ana Luiza Bierrenbach

    2007-09-01

    Full Text Available OBJETIVO: Descrever a distribuição geográfica da incidência de tuberculose, a partir de um conjunto de indicadores epidemiológicos e operacionais de dados de notificação oficial. MÉTODOS: Dados sobre incidência de tuberculose foram coletados no Sistema de Informação de Agravos de Notificação, após processo de pareamento e depuração de registros repetidos. As taxas de incidência de tuberculose foram calculadas segundo unidade geográfica, grupo etário, sexo, forma clínica e regime de tratamento, e padronizadas para a distribuição etária da população com base no Censo de 2000. RESULTADOS: Em 2004, o Brasil apresentou taxa de incidência de 41/100.000 habitantes, com 74.540 casos novos notificados. Desses, 52,8% eram casos pulmonares com baciloscopia positiva, 24,1% estavam em tratamento supervisionado, 63,5% eram provenientes de capitais ou das regiões metropolitanas e 54,9% eram casos curados. Excluindo-se os registros sem preenchimento da variável de desfecho, a proporção de cura alcançou 72,4% para casos novos, 47% para casos novos HIV positivos, 64,9% para recidivas, 64,5% transferências e 40% para reingressos após abandono. A taxa de cura para os casos novos em tratamento supervisionado foi de 77,1%. A proporção de registros sem informação sobre desfecho foi maior em anos mais recentes. CONCLUSÕES: Houve extensas diferenças estaduais em relação à incidência e às categorias de desfecho. Para alcançar a meta de 85% de cura para casos novos e aumentar a cura dos casos HIV positivos e reingressos são necessários esforços adicionais por parte do Programa Nacional de Controle da Tuberculose, incluindo a expansão da estratégia de tratamento diretamente supervisionado.OBJECTIVE: To describe the geographical distribution of tuberculosis incidence rates based on a set of epidemiological and operational indicators from information system database. METHODS: Data from the Sistema de Informação de Agravos

  4. Time-varying surrogate data to assess nonlinearity in nonstationary time series: application to heart rate variability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Faes, Luca; Zhao, He; Chon, Ki H; Nollo, Giandomenico

    2009-03-01

    We propose a method to extend to time-varying (TV) systems the procedure for generating typical surrogate time series, in order to test the presence of nonlinear dynamics in potentially nonstationary signals. The method is based on fitting a TV autoregressive (AR) model to the original series and then regressing the model coefficients with random replacements of the model residuals to generate TV AR surrogate series. The proposed surrogate series were used in combination with a TV sample entropy (SE) discriminating statistic to assess nonlinearity in both simulated and experimental time series, in comparison with traditional time-invariant (TIV) surrogates combined with the TIV SE discriminating statistic. Analysis of simulated time series showed that using TIV surrogates, linear nonstationary time series may be erroneously regarded as nonlinear and weak TV nonlinearities may remain unrevealed, while the use of TV AR surrogates markedly increases the probability of a correct interpretation. Application to short (500 beats) heart rate variability (HRV) time series recorded at rest (R), after head-up tilt (T), and during paced breathing (PB) showed: 1) modifications of the SE statistic that were well interpretable with the known cardiovascular physiology; 2) significant contribution of nonlinear dynamics to HRV in all conditions, with significant increase during PB at 0.2 Hz respiration rate; and 3) a disagreement between TV AR surrogates and TIV surrogates in about a quarter of the series, suggesting that nonstationarity may affect HRV recordings and bias the outcome of the traditional surrogate-based nonlinearity test.

  5. [Seasonality of rotavirus infection in Venezuela: relationship between monthly rotavirus incidence and rainfall rates].

    Science.gov (United States)

    González Chávez, Rosabel

    2015-09-01

    In general, it has been reported that rotavirus infection was detected year round in tropical countries. However, studies in Venezuela and Brazil suggest a seasonal behavior of the infection. On the other hand, some studies link infection with climatic variables such as rainfall. This study analyzes the pattern of behavior of the rotavirus infection in Carabobo-Venezuela (2001-2005), associates the seasonality of the infection with rainfall, and according to the seasonal pattern, estimates the age of greatest risk for infection. The analysis of the rotavirus temporal series and accumulated precipitation was performed with the software SPSS. The infection showed two periods: high incidence (November-April) and low incidence (May-October). Accumulated precipitation presents an opposite behavior. The highest frequency of events (73.8% 573/779) for those born in the period with a low incidence of the virus was recorded at an earlier age (mean age 6.5 +/- 2.0 months) when compared with those born in the station of high incidence (63.5% 568/870, mean age 11.7 +/- 2.2 months). Seasonality of the infection and the inverse relationship between virus incidence and rainfall was demonstrated. In addition, it was found that the period of birth determines the age and risk of infection. This information generated during the preaccine period will be helpful to measure the impact of the vaccine against the rotavirus.

  6. Trends in Hospitalization and Incidence Rate for Syphilitic Uveitis in the United States From 1998 to 2009.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Albini, Thomas; Callaway, Natalia F; Pershing, Suzann; Wang, Sean K; Moshfeghi, Andrew A; Moshfeghi, Darius M

    2017-08-01

    This study evaluates the annual incidence of syphilitic uveitis in the US and trends in hospital admissions over time. Retrospective, longitudinal incidence rate analysis of the National Inpatient Sample (NIS) data from 1998 to 2009. The NIS is a de-identified, random sample dataset of inpatient hospitalizations from 46 states. The number of cases of syphilitic uveitis was defined by (1) International Classification of Diseases, 9th Revision (ICD-9) code for syphilis and uveitis or (2) ICD-9 code for syphilitic uveitis. Annual case count, incidence rate, and trend over time were calculated. Multivariate logistic regression was used to evaluate associated factors for a syphilitic uveitis diagnosis. The study included 455 310 286 hospitalizations during a 12-year study period with a mean of 37 942 524 patients annually. Syphilis and uveitis was recorded for 1861 patients (155 annually) and syphilitic uveitis was diagnosed in 204 subjects (average of 17 cases annually). There was no change in the incidence of syphilitic uveitis, using either definition, over the study period (P for trend = .46). The mean annual incidence of syphilis and uveitis was 0.0004%, or 4 per million. Syphilitic uveitis had an annual incidence of 0.000045%, or 0.45 per million. The odds of syphilitic uveitis were lower among women (odds ratio [OR] 0.40, CI 0.28-0.57) and increased with comorbid acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (OR 4.52, CI 3.01-6.79). We report the first incidence of syphilitic uveitis in the United States. Fortunately, this remains a rare condition. The results demonstrate no change in the number of inpatient admissions for syphilitic uveitis during the study period. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  7. Estimating the incidence reporting rates of new influenza pandemics at an early stage using travel data from the source country

    OpenAIRE

    CHONG, K. C.; Fong, H. F.; ZEE, C. Y.

    2013-01-01

    SUMMARY During the surveillance of influenza pandemics, underreported data are a public health challenge that complicates the understanding of pandemic threats and can undermine mitigation efforts. We propose a method to estimate incidence reporting rates at early stages of new influenza pandemics using 2009 pandemic H1N1 as an example. Routine surveillance data and statistics of travellers arriving from Mexico were used. Our method incorporates changes in reporting rates such as linearly inc...

  8. Hippotherapy acute impact on heart rate variability non-linear dynamics in neurological disorders.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cabiddu, Ramona; Borghi-Silva, Audrey; Trimer, Renata; Trimer, Vitor; Ricci, Paula Angélica; Italiano Monteiro, Clara; Camargo Magalhães Maniglia, Marcela; Silva Pereira, Ana Maria; Rodrigues das Chagas, Gustavo; Carvalho, Eliane Maria

    2016-05-15

    Neurological disorders are associated with autonomic dysfunction. Hippotherapy (HT) is a therapy treatment strategy that utilizes a horse in an interdisciplinary approach for the physical and mental rehabilitation of people with physical, mental and/or psychological disabilities. However, no studies have been carried out which evaluated the effects of HT on the autonomic control in these patients. Therefore, the objective of the present study was to investigate the effects of a single HT session on cardiovascular autonomic control by time domain and non-linear analysis of heart rate variability (HRV). The HRV signal was recorded continuously in twelve children affected by neurological disorders during a HT session, consisting in a 10-minute sitting position rest (P1), a 15-minute preparatory phase sitting on the horse (P2), a 15-minute HT session (P3) and a final 10-minute sitting position recovery (P4). Time domain and non-linear HRV indices, including Sample Entropy (SampEn), Lempel-Ziv Complexity (LZC) and Detrended Fluctuation Analysis (DFA), were calculated for each treatment phase. We observed that SampEn increased during P3 (SampEn=0.56±0.10) with respect to P1 (SampEn=0.40±0.14, p<0.05), while DFA decreased during P3 (DFA=1.10±0.10) with respect to P1 (DFA=1.26±0.14, p<0.05). A significant SDRR increase (p<0.05) was observed during the recovery period P4 (SDRR=50±30ms) with respect to the HT session period P3 (SDRR=30±10ms). Our results suggest that HT might benefit children with disabilities attributable to neurological disorders by eliciting an acute autonomic response during the therapy and during the recovery period.

  9. Nonlinear short-term heart rate variability prediction of spontaneous ventricular tachyarrhythmia

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    ZHUANG JianJun; NING XinBao; DU SiDan; WANG ZhenZhou; HUO ChengYu; YANG Xi; FAN AiHua

    2008-01-01

    As malign ventricular tachyarrhythmias triggering sudden cardiac death (SCD),both ventricular tachycardia (VT) and ventricular fibrillation (VF) are major causes of mortality.The most efficient ther-apy for SCD prevention is implantable cardioverter defibrillators (ICD).The ICD can accurately and ef-fectively identify the forthcoming of fatal ventricular tachyarrhythmias and deliver a shock in order to restore patients' normal sinus rhythm.In this study,two nonlinear complexity measures based on en-tropy:approximate entropy (ApEn) and sample entropy (SampEn) as well as two time linear indices:the mean RR interval (the average of time intervals between consecutive R-waves) and the standard devia-tion of RR intervals were used for short-term forecasting of VT-VF occurrence.The last small sections of interbeat intervals preceding 135 VT-VF episodes from 78 patients stored by the ICD were analyzed and compared with individually acquired control time series (CON series) from the same patients,which are normally intrinsic sinus rhythms.The results demonstrate that in addition to an obvious in-crease in heart rates of the patients,the values of two entropy measures are significantly smaller for VT-VF episodes than those for CON series.Conclusions can be drawn that when a ventricular tach-yarrhythmia approaches,the sympathetic tone of the patients is increased,and the complexity of their RR intervals immediately before the onset of VT-VF events is obviously lower than that of RR Intervals recorded during sinus rhythms.For a better separation,the optimal range of threshold r is determined for two algorithms.ApEn and SampEn measures might be the suitable nonlinear parameters for shod-term prediction of life-threatening ventricular tachyarrhythmias in the application of the cardioversion and defibrillation.

  10. Incidence and mortality rates of selected infection-related cancers in Puerto Rico and in the United States

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Romero Carlos J

    2010-05-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background In 2002, 17.8% of the global cancer burden was attributable to infections. This study assessed the age-standardized incidence and mortality rates of stomach, liver, and cervical cancer in Puerto Rico (PR for the period 1992-2003 and compared them to those of Hispanics (USH, non-Hispanic Whites (NHW, and non-Hispanic Blacks (NHB in the United States (US. Methods Age-standardized rates [ASR(World] were calculated based on cancer incidence and mortality data from the PR Cancer Central Registry and SEER, using the direct method and the world population as the standard. Annual percent changes (APC were calculated using the Poisson regression model from 1992-2003. Results The incidence and mortality rates from stomach, liver and cervical cancer were lower in NHW than PR; with the exception of mortality from cervical cancer which was similar in both populations. Meanwhile, the incidence rates of stomach, liver and cervical cancers were similar between NHB and PR; except for NHB women who had a lower incidence rate of liver cancer than women in PR. NHB had a lower mortality from liver cancer than persons in PR, and similar mortality from stomach cancer. Conclusions The burden of liver, stomach, and cervical cancer in PR compares to that of USH and NHB and continues to be a public health priority. Public health efforts are necessary to further decrease the burden of cancers associated to infections in these groups, the largest minority population groups in the US. Future studies need to identify factors that may prevent infections with cancer-related agents in these populations. Strategies to increase the use of preventive strategies, such as vaccination and screening, among minority populations should also be developed.

  11. Incidence rates of enterovirus 71 infections in young children during a nationwide epidemic in Taiwan, 2008-09.

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    Min-Shi Lee

    Full Text Available OBJECTIVE: Enterovirus 71 (EV71 is causing life-threatening outbreaks in tropical Asia. In Taiwan and other tropical Asian countries, although nationwide EV71 epidemics occur cyclically, age-specific incidence rates of EV71 infections that are critical to estimate disease burden and design vaccine trials are not clear. A nationwide EV71 epidemic occurred in 2008-09 in Taiwan, which provided a unique opportunity to estimate age-specific incidence rates of EV71 infections. STUDY DESIGN: We prospectively recruited 749 healthy neonates and conducted follow-ups from June 2006 to December 2009. Sera were obtained from participants at 0, 6, 12, 24, and 36 months of age for measuring EV71 neutralizing antibody titers. If the participants developed suspected enterovirus illnesses, throat swabs were collected for virus isolation. RESULTS: We detected 28 EV71 infections including 20 symptomatic and 8 asymptomatic infections. Age-specific incidence rates of EV71 infection increased from 1.71 per 100 person-years at 0-6 months of age to 4.09, 5.74, and 4.97 per 100 person-years at 7-12, 13-24, and 25-36 months of age, respectively. Cumulative incidence rate was 15.15 per 100 persons by 36 months of age, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Risk of EV71 infections in Taiwan increased after 6 months of age during EV71 epidemics. The cumulative incidence rate was 15% by 36 months of age, and 29% of EV71 infections were asymptomatic in young children.

  12. Tuberculosis incidence rates during 8 years of follow-up of an antiretroviral treatment cohort in South Africa: comparison with rates in the community.

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    Ankur Gupta

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Although antiretroviral therapy (ART is known to be associated with time-dependent reductions in tuberculosis (TB incidence, the long-term impact of ART on incidence remains imprecisely defined due to limited duration of follow-up and incomplete CD4 cell count recovery in existing studies. We determined TB incidence in a South African ART cohort with up to 8 years of follow-up and stratified rates according to CD4 cell count recovery. We compared these rates with those of HIV-uninfected individuals living in the same community. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Prospectively collected clinical data on patients receiving ART in a community-based cohort in Cape Town were analysed. 1544 patients with a median follow-up of 5.0 years (IQR 2.4-5.8 were included in the analysis. 484 episodes of incident TB (73.6% culture-confirmed were diagnosed in 424 patients during 6506 person-years (PYs of follow-up. The TB incidence rate during the first year of ART was 12.4 (95% CI 10.8-14.4 cases/100PYs and decreased to 4.92 (95% CI 3.64-8.62 cases/100PYs between 5 and 8 years of ART. During person-time accrued within CD4 cell strata 0-100, 101-200, 201-300, 301-400, 401-500, 501-700 and ≥700 cells/µL, TB incidence rates (95% CI were 25.5 (21.6-30.3, 11.2 (9.4-13.5, 7.9 (6.4-9.7, 5.0 (3.9-6.6, 5.1 (3.8-6.8, 4.1 (3.1-5.4 and 2.7 (1.7-4.5 cases/100PYs, respectively. Overall, 75% (95% CI 70.9-78.8 of TB episodes were recurrent cases. Updated CD4 cell count and viral load measurements were independently associated with long-term TB risk. TB rates during person-time accrued in the highest CD4 cell count stratum (>700 cells/µL were 4.4-fold higher that the rate in HIV uninfected individuals living in the same community (2.7 versus 0.62 cases/100PYs; 95%CI 0.58-0.65. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: TB rates during long-term ART remained substantially greater than rates in the local HIV uninfected populations regardless of duration of ART or attainment of CD4

  13. Incidence Rate of Community-Acquired Sepsis Among Hospitalized Acute Medical Patients-A Population-Based Survey

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Henriksen, Daniel Pilsgaard; Laursen, Christian B; Jensen, Thøger Gorm

    2015-01-01

    OBJECTIVE:: Sepsis is a frequent cause of admission, but incidence rates based on administrative data have previously produced large differences in estimates. The aim of the study was to estimate the incidence of community-acquired sepsis based on patients' symptoms and clinical findings at arrival...... to the hospital. DESIGN:: Population-based survey. SETTING:: Medical emergency department from September 1, 2010, to August 31, 2011. PATIENTS:: All patients were manually reviewed using a structured protocol in order to identify the presence of infection. Vital signs and laboratory values were collected...

  14. A population-based study of the incidence and complication rates of herpes zoster before zoster vaccine introduction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yawn, Barbara P; Saddier, Patricia; Wollan, Peter C; St Sauver, Jennifer L; Kurland, Marge J; Sy, Lina S

    2007-11-01

    To establish accurate, up-to-date, baseline epidemiological data for herpes zoster (HZ) before the introduction of the recently licensed HZ vaccine. Using data from January 1, 1996, to October 15, 2005, we conducted a population-based study of adult residents (Greater than or equal to 22 years) of Olmsted County, MN, to determine (by medical record review) the incidence of HZ and the rate of HZ-related complications. Incidence rates were determined by age and sex and adjusted to the US population. A total of 1669 adult residents with a confirmed diagnosis of HZ were identified between January 1, 1996, and December 31, 2001. Most (92%) of these patients were immunocompetent and 60% were women. When adjusted to the US adult population, the incidence of HZ was 3.6 per 1000 person-years (95% confidence interval, 3.4-3.7), with a temporal increase from 3.2 to 4.1 per 1000 person-years from 1996 to 2001. The incidence of HZ and the rate of HZ-associated complications increased with age, with 68% of cases occurring in those aged 50 years and older. Postherpetic neuralgia occurred in 18% of adult patients with HZ and in 33% of those aged 79 years and older. Overall, 10% of all patients with HZ experienced 1 or more nonpain complications. Our population-based data suggest that HZ primarily affects immunocompetent adults older than 50 years; 1 in 4 experiences some type of HZ-related complication.

  15. Incidence and case fatality rates for acute appendicitis in California. A population-based study of the effects of age.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luckmann, R

    1989-05-01

    In 1984, 24,794 appendectomies and abscess drainage procedures were performed for acute appendicitis in California hospitals. Analysis of hospital discharge abstracts revealed age- and sex-specific incidence rates and in-hospital case fatality rates for acute appendicitis lower than previously reported. In persons aged 60 years and older, the case fatality rate for nonperforating appendicitis with appendectomy was 0.7% and for perforating appendicitis and abscess 2.4%. Surgery was delayed beyond the day of admission in 21% of persons aged 40-59 years, 29% of persons aged 60-79 years, and 47% of persons aged 80 years and over. The proportion of cases with perforation increased from 22% to 75% between ages 20 and 80 years. The population incidence of perforating appendicitis changed little after age 20 years, while the incidence of nonperforating cases declined sharply. The high proportion of appendicitis cases with perforation among the elderly may be due to the decreased incidence of nonperforating appendicitis in the elderly and not to a greater propensity for perforation, as previously proposed. Most elderly in California receive timely surgery for appendicitis and tolerate it better than previously reported. Diminished tolerance for intra-abdominal infection may be the primary determinant of the increase in case fatality with age.

  16. Rate of strong consistency of the maximum quasi-likelihood estimator in quasi-likelihood nonlinear models

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2008-01-01

    Quasi-likelihood nonlinear models (QLNM) include generalized linear models as a special case.Under some regularity conditions,the rate of the strong consistency of the maximum quasi-likelihood estimation (MQLE) is obtained in QLNM.In an important case,this rate is O(n-1/2(loglogn)1/2),which is just the rate of LIL of partial sums for I.I.d variables,and thus cannot be improved anymore.

  17. Increased Incidence of Campylobacter spp. Infection and High Rates among Children, Israel

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lerner, Larisa; Valinsky, Lea; Moran-Gilad, Jacob; Nissan, Israel; Agmon, Vered; Peretz, Chava

    2013-01-01

    During 1999–2010, the annual incidence of Campylobacter spp. infection in Israel increased from 31.04 to 90.99 cases/100,000 population, a yearly increase of 10.24%. Children 26-fold higher than for the 30–<50 age group. PMID:24188185

  18. Estimating the incidence reporting rates of new influenza pandemics at an early stage using travel data from the source country.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chong, K C; Fong, H F; Zee, C Y

    2014-05-01

    During the surveillance of influenza pandemics, underreported data are a public health challenge that complicates the understanding of pandemic threats and can undermine mitigation efforts. We propose a method to estimate incidence reporting rates at early stages of new influenza pandemics using 2009 pandemic H1N1 as an example. Routine surveillance data and statistics of travellers arriving from Mexico were used. Our method incorporates changes in reporting rates such as linearly increasing trends due to the enhanced surveillance. From our results, the reporting rate was estimated at 0·46% during early stages of the pandemic in Mexico. We estimated cumulative incidence in the Mexican population to be 0·7% compared to 0·003% reported by officials in Mexico at the end of April. This method could be useful in estimation of actual cases during new influenza pandemics for policy makers to better determine appropriate control measures.

  19. Age-Specific Incidence Rates for Dementia and Alzheimer Disease in NIA-LOAD/NCRAD and EFIGA Families

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vardarajan, Badri N.; Faber, Kelley M.; Bird, Thomas D.; Bennett, David A.; Rosenberg, Roger; Boeve, Bradley F.; Graff-Radford, Neill R.; Goate, Alison M.; Farlow, Martin; Sweet, Robert A.; Lantigua, Rafael; Medrano, Martin Z.; Ottman, Ruth; Schaid, Daniel J.; Foroud, Tatiana M.; Mayeux, Richard

    2014-01-01

    IMPORTANCE Late-onset Alzheimer disease (LOAD), defined as onset of symptoms after age 65 years, is the most common form of dementia. Few reports investigate incidence rates in large family-based studies in which the participants were selected for family history of LOAD. OBJECTIVE To determine the incidence rates of dementia and LOAD in unaffected members in the National Institute on Aging Genetics Initiative for Late-Onset Alzheimer Disease/National Cell Repository for Alzheimer Disease (NIA-LOAD/NCRAD) and Estudio Familiar de Influencia Genetica en Alzheimer (EFIGA) family studies. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS Families with 2 or more affected siblings who had a clinical or pathological diagnosis of LOAD were recruited as a part of the NIA-LOAD/NCRAD Family Study. A cohort of Caribbean Hispanics with familial LOAD was recruited in a different study at the Taub Institute for Research on Alzheimer’s Disease and the Aging Brain in New York and from clinics in the Dominican Republic as part of the EFIGA study. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES Age-specific incidence rates of LOAD were estimated in the unaffected family members in the NIA-LOAD/NCRAD and EFIGA data sets. We restricted analyses to families with follow-up and complete phenotype information, including 396 NIA-LOAD/NCRAD and 242 EFIGA families. Among the 943 at-risk family members in the NIA-LOAD/NCRAD families, 126 (13.4%) developed dementia, of whom 109 (86.5%) met criteria for LOAD. Among 683 at-risk family members in the EFIGA families, 174 (25.5%) developed dementia during the study period, of whom 145 (83.3%) had LOAD. RESULTS The annual incidence rates of dementia and LOAD in the NIA-LOAD/NCRAD families per person-year were 0.03 and 0.03, respectively, in participants aged 65 to 74 years; 0.07 and 0.06, respectively, in those aged 75 to 84 years; and 0.08 and 0.07, respectively, in those 85 years or older. Incidence rates in the EFIGA families were slightly higher, at 0.03 and 0.02, 0.06 and 0.05, 0

  20. Nonlinear Time Series and Neural-Network Models of Exchange Rates between the US Dollar and Major Currencies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David E. Allen

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available This paper features an analysis of major currency exchange rate movements in relation to the US dollar, as constituted in US dollar terms. Euro, British pound, Chinese yuan, and Japanese yen are modelled using a variety of non-linear models, including smooth transition regression models, logistic smooth transition regressions models, threshold autoregressive models, nonlinear autoregressive models, and additive nonlinear autoregressive models, plus Neural Network models. The models are evaluated on the basis of error metrics for twenty day out-of-sample forecasts using the mean average percentage errors (MAPE. The results suggest that there is no dominating class of time series models, and the different currency pairs relationships with the US dollar are captured best by neural net regression models, over the ten year sample of daily exchange rate returns data, from August 2005 to August 2015.

  1. Nonlinear adjustment of real exchange rate towards purchasing power parity from G7: An exponential FISTAR modelling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nadhem Selmi

    2015-02-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this paper is to study the dynamics of the real exchange rate deviations of G7 countries by capturing nonlinearity and long memory features. In this context, we used fractionally integrated STAR (FISTAR models proposed by Van Dijk et al. (2002 [Van Dijk, D., Franses, P.H., Paap, R., (2002, A nonlinear long-memory model with an application to US unemployment, Journal of Econometrics, 110, 135-165.] for a case with an exponential transition function. Indeed, this study can take into account procedures characterized by several dynamic regimes and persistence phenomena. Empirically, the elements of both fractional long memory and threshold non-linearity are present for the real exchange rates of the G-7 countries against the US, notably in the EU countries.

  2. Linear and non-linear heart rate metrics for the assessment of anaesthetists' workload during general anaesthesia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martin, J; Schneider, F; Kowalewskij, A; Jordan, D; Hapfelmeier, A; Kochs, E F; Wagner, K J; Schulz, C M

    2016-12-01

    Excessive workload may impact the anaesthetists' ability to adequately process information during clinical practice in the operation room and may result in inaccurate situational awareness and performance. This exploratory study investigated heart rate (HR), linear and non-linear heart rate variability (HRV) metrics and subjective ratings scales for the assessment of workload associated with the anaesthesia stages induction, maintenance and emergence. HR and HRV metrics were calculated based on five min segments from each of the three anaesthesia stages. The area under the receiver operating characteristics curve (AUC) of the investigated metrics was calculated to assess their ability to discriminate between the stages of anaesthesia. Additionally, a multiparametric approach based on logistic regression models was performed to further evaluate whether linear or non-linear heart rate metrics are suitable for the assessment of workload. Mean HR and several linear and non-linear HRV metrics including subjective workload ratings differed significantly between stages of anaesthesia. Permutation Entropy (PeEn, AUC=0.828) and mean HR (AUC=0.826) discriminated best between the anaesthesia stages induction and maintenance. In the multiparametric approach using logistic regression models, the model based on non-linear heart rate metrics provided a higher AUC compared with the models based on linear metrics. In this exploratory study based on short ECG segment analysis, PeEn and HR seem to be promising to separate workload levels between different stages of anaesthesia. The multiparametric analysis of the regression models favours non-linear heart rate metrics over linear metrics. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the British Journal of Anaesthesia. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  3. Nonlinear temperature effects on multifractal complexity of metabolic rate of mice

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fabio A. Labra

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available Complex physiological dynamics have been argued to be a signature of healthy physiological function. Here we test whether the complexity of metabolic rate fluctuations in small endotherms decreases with lower environmental temperatures. To do so, we examine the multifractal temporal scaling properties of the rate of change in oxygen consumption r(VO2, in the laboratory mouse Mus musculus, assessing their long range correlation properties across seven different environmental temperatures, ranging from 0 °C to 30 °C. To do so, we applied multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis (MF-DFA, finding that r(VO2 fluctuations show two scaling regimes. For small time scales below the crossover time (approximately 102 s, either monofractal or weak multifractal dynamics are observed depending on whether Ta  15 °C respectively. For larger time scales, r(VO2 fluctuations are characterized by an asymptotic scaling exponent that indicates multifractal anti-persistent or uncorrelated dynamics. For both scaling regimes, a generalization of the multiplicative cascade model provides very good fits for the Renyi exponents τ(q, showing that the infinite number of exponents h(q can be described by only two independent parameters, a and b. We also show that the long-range correlation structure of r(VO2 time series differs from randomly shuffled series, and may not be explained as an artifact of stochastic sampling of a linear frequency spectrum. These results show that metabolic rate dynamics in a well studied micro-endotherm are consistent with a highly non-linear feedback control system.

  4. Nonlinear temperature effects on multifractal complexity of metabolic rate of mice

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bogdanovich, Jose M.; Bozinovic, Francisco

    2016-01-01

    Complex physiological dynamics have been argued to be a signature of healthy physiological function. Here we test whether the complexity of metabolic rate fluctuations in small endotherms decreases with lower environmental temperatures. To do so, we examine the multifractal temporal scaling properties of the rate of change in oxygen consumption r(VO2), in the laboratory mouse Mus musculus, assessing their long range correlation properties across seven different environmental temperatures, ranging from 0 °C to 30 °C. To do so, we applied multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis (MF-DFA), finding that r(VO2) fluctuations show two scaling regimes. For small time scales below the crossover time (approximately 102 s), either monofractal or weak multifractal dynamics are observed depending on whether Ta  15 °C respectively. For larger time scales, r(VO2) fluctuations are characterized by an asymptotic scaling exponent that indicates multifractal anti-persistent or uncorrelated dynamics. For both scaling regimes, a generalization of the multiplicative cascade model provides very good fits for the Renyi exponents τ(q), showing that the infinite number of exponents h(q) can be described by only two independent parameters, a and b. We also show that the long-range correlation structure of r(VO2) time series differs from randomly shuffled series, and may not be explained as an artifact of stochastic sampling of a linear frequency spectrum. These results show that metabolic rate dynamics in a well studied micro-endotherm are consistent with a highly non-linear feedback control system.

  5. Surveillance length and validity of benchmarks for central line-associated bloodstream infection incidence rates in intensive care units.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Patricia S Fontela

    Full Text Available INTRODUCTION: Several national and regional central line-associated bloodstream infections (CLABSI surveillance programs do not require continuous hospital participation. We evaluated the effect of different hospital participation requirements on the validity of annual CLABSI incidence rate benchmarks for intensive care units (ICUs. METHODS: We estimated the annual pooled CLABSI incidence rates for both a real regional (<100 ICUs and a simulated national (600 ICUs surveillance program, which were used as a reference for the simulations. We simulated scenarios where the annual surveillance participation was randomly or non-randomly reduced. Each scenario's annual pooled CLABSI incidence rate was estimated and compared to the reference rates in terms of validity, bias, and proportion of simulation iterations that presented valid estimates (ideal if ≥ 90%. RESULTS: All random scenarios generated valid CLABSI incidence rates estimates (bias -0.37 to 0.07 CLABSI/1000 CVC-days, while non-random scenarios presented a wide range of valid estimates (0 to 100% and higher bias (-2.18 to 1.27 CLABSI/1000 CVC-days. In random scenarios, the higher the number of participating ICUs, the shorter the participation required to generate ≥ 90% valid replicates. While participation requirements in a countrywide program ranged from 3 to 13 surveillance blocks (1 block = 28 days, requirements for a regional program ranged from 9 to 13 blocks. CONCLUSIONS: Based on the results of our model of national CLABSI reporting, the shortening of participation requirements may be suitable for nationwide ICU CLABSI surveillance programs if participation months are randomly chosen. However, our regional models showed that regional programs should opt for continuous participation to avoid biased benchmarks.

  6. Incidence rate of external genital lesions (EGL) caused by human papillomavirus infection in Czech population

    OpenAIRE

    Petráš, Marek

    2016-01-01

    Incidence of external genital lesions (EGL) caused by human papillomaviruses in the Czech population Marek Petráš Abstract Genital warts (condyloma acuminate) caused up to 90% cases by two human papillomaviruses of type 6 and 11 are not life-threatening diseases but can cause not only clinical symptoms (burning, itching, bleeding, and pain) but also psychosocial stress, embarrassment, and anxiety making for impaired quality of life. The aim of this cross-sectional study was to determine the p...

  7. Sex differences in linear and nonlinear heart rate variability during early recovery from supramaximal exercise.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mendonca, Goncalo V; Heffernan, Kevin S; Rossow, Lindy; Guerra, Myriam; Pereira, Fernando D; Fernhall, Bo

    2010-08-01

    Women demonstrate greater RR interval variability than men of similar age. Enhanced parasympathetic input into cardiac regulation appears to be not only greater in women, but also protective during periods of cardiac stress. Even though women may have a more favorable autonomic profile after exercise, little research has been conducted on this issue. This study was designed to examine the cardiac autonomic response, in both male and female participants, during the early recovery from supramaximal exercise. Twenty-five individuals, aged 20 to 33 years (13 males and 12 females), performed a 30-s Wingate test. Beat-to-beat RR series were recorded before and 5 min after exercise, with the participants in the supine position and under paced breathing. Linear (spectral analysis) and nonlinear analyses (detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA)) were performed on the same RR series. At rest, women presented lower raw low frequency (LF) power and higher normalized high frequency (HF) power. Under these conditions, the LF/HF ratio of women was also lower than that of men (pheart rate variability (HRV) (pchange in LF/HF ratio and α1 than men from rest to recovery. This study demonstrates that the cardiac autonomic function of women is more affected by supramaximal exercise than that of men. Additionally, DFA did not provide additional information about sexual dimorphisms, compared with conventional spectral HRV techniques.

  8. A high repetition rate experimental setup for quantum non-linear optics with cold Rydberg atoms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Busche, Hannes; Ball, Simon W.; Huillery, Paul

    2016-12-01

    Using electromagnetically induced transparency and photon storage, the strong dipolar interactions between Rydberg atoms and the resulting dipole blockade can be mapped onto light fields to realise optical non-linearities and interactions at the single photon level. We report on the realisation of an experimental apparatus designed to study interactions between single photons stored as Rydberg excitations in optically trapped microscopic ensembles of ultracold 87Rb atoms. A pair of in-vacuum high numerical aperture lenses focus excitation and trapping beams down to 1 μm, well below the Rydberg blockade. Thanks to efficient magneto-optical trap (MOT) loading from an atomic beam generated by a 2D MOT and the ability to recycle the microscopic ensembles more than 20000 times without significant atom loss, we achieve effective repetition rates exceeding 110 kHz to obtain good photon counting statistics on reasonable time scales. To demonstrate the functionality of the setup, we present evidence of strong photon interactions including saturation of photon storage and the retrieval of non-classical light. Using in-vacuum antennae operating at up to 40 GHz, we perform microwave spectroscopy on photons stored as Rydberg excitations and observe an interaction induced change in lineshape depending on the number of stored photons.

  9. Study of Heart Rate Variability in bipolar disorder: linear and nonlinear parameters during sleep

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Matteo eMigliorini

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available In the present paper we propose a methodology for the assessment of the autonomic nervous system (ANS in patients affected by bipolar disorder. ANS was explored by means heart rate variability (HRV analysis carried out during night recordings through the evaluation of many different parameters in the time and in the frequency domain, linear and non-linear. The recording of the signals was performed by a wearable sensorized T-shirt. HRV with movement analysis allowed also sleep staging and the estimation of REM sleep percentage over the total sleep time. A group of 8 normal female constituted the control group, on which normality ranges were estimated. One pathologic subject was recorded during four different nights, at time intervals of at least one week, and during different phases of the disturbance. Some of the calculated parameters (MEANNN, SDNN, RMSSD confirmed reduced HRV in depression and bipolar disorder. REM sleep percentage was found to be increased. LZC (Lempel Ziv complexity and SampEn (Sample Entropy, on the other hand, seem to correlate with the depression level. Even if the number of examined subjects is small, and the results need further validation, the proposed methodology and the calculated parameters seem promising tools for the monitoring of mood changes in psychiatric disorders.

  10. Impact on mortality and cancer incidence rates of using random invitation from population registers for recruitment to trials

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Woolas Robert

    2011-03-01

    to use the various mortality and incidence rates presented as guides for calculating event rates and power in RCTs involving women. Trial Registration This study is registered as an International Standard Randomised Controlled Trial, number ISRCTN22488978. Medical Research Council (grant no. G990102, Cancer Research UK (grant no. C1479/A2884 and Department of Health

  11. Nonlinear complexity and spectral analyses of heart rate variability in medicated and unmedicated patients with schizophrenia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mujica-Parodi, L R; Yeragani, Vikram; Malaspina, Dolores

    2005-01-01

    Heart rate variability (HRV) reflects functioning of the autonomic nervous system and possibly also regulation by the neural limbic system, abnormalities of which have both figured prominently in various etiological models of schizophrenia, particularly those that address patients' vulnerability to stress in connection to psychosis onset and exacerbation. This study provides data on cardiac functioning in a sample of schizophrenia patients that were either medication free or on atypical antipsychotics, as well as cardiac data on matched healthy controls. We included a medication-free group to investigate whether abnormalities in HRV previously reported in the literature and associated with atypical antipsychotics were solely the effect of medications or whether they might be a feature of the illness (or psychosis) itself. We collected 24-hour ECGs on 19 patients and 24 controls. Of the patients, 9 were medication free and 10 were on atypical antipsychotics. All subject groups were matched for age and gender. Patient groups showed equivalent symptom severity and type, as well as duration of illness. We analyzed the data using nonlinear complexity (symbolic dynamic) HRV analyses as well as standard and relative spectral analyses. For the medication-free patients as compared to the healthy controls, our data show decreased R-R intervals during sleep, and abnormal suppression of all frequency ranges, but particularly the low frequency range, which persisted even after adjusting the spectral data for the mean R-R interval. This effect was exacerbated for patients on atypical antipsychotics. Likewise, nonlinear complexity analysis showed significantly impaired HRV for medication-free patients that was exacerbated in the patients on atypical antipsychotics. Altogether, the data suggest a pattern of significantly decreased cardiac vagal function of patients with schizophrenia as compared to healthy controls, apart from and beyond any differences due to medication side

  12. Nonlinear decline-rate dependence and intrinsic variation of typeIa supernova luminosities

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wang, Lifan; Strovink, Mark; Conley, Alexander; Goldhaber,Gerson; Kowalski, Marek; Perlmutter, Saul; Siegrist, James

    2005-12-14

    Published B and V fluxes from nearby Type Ia supernova are fitted to light-curve templates with 4-6 adjustable parameters. Separately, B magnitudes from the same sample are fitted to a linear dependence on B-V color within a post-maximum time window prescribed by the CMAGIC method. These fits yield two independent SN magnitude estimates B{sub max} and B{sub BV}. Their difference varies systematically with decline rate {Delta}m{sub 15} in a form that is compatible with a bilinear but not a linear dependence; a nonlinear form likely describes the decline-rate dependence of B{sub max} itself. A Hubble fit to the average of B{sub max} and B{sub BV} requires a systematic correction for observed B-V color that can be described by a linear coefficient R = 2.59 {+-} 0.24, well below the coefficient R{sub B} {approx} 4.1 commonly used to characterize the effects of Milky Way dust. At 99.9% confidence the data reject a simple model in which no color correction is required for SNe that are clustered at the blue end of their observed color distribution. After systematic corrections are performed, B{sub max} and B{sub BV} exhibit mutual rms intrinsic variation equal to 0.074 {+-} 0.019 mag, of which at least an equal share likely belongs to B{sub BV}. SN magnitudes measured using maximum-luminosity or cmagic methods show comparable rms deviations of order {approx}0.14 mag from the Hubble line. The same fit also establishes a 95% confidence upper limit of 486 km s{sup -1} on the rms peculiar velocity of nearby SNe relative to the Hubble flow.

  13. Incidence of atrial fibrillation in relation to changing heart rate over time in hypertensive patients: the LIFE study

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Okin, Peter M; Wachtell, Kristian; Kjeldsen, Sverre E;

    2008-01-01

    Onset of atrial fibrillation (AF) has been linked to changes in autonomic tone, with increasing heart rate (HR) immediately before AF onset in some patients suggesting a possible role of acute increases in sympathetic activity in AF onset. Although losartan therapy and decreasing ECG left...... ventricular hypertrophy are associated with decreased AF incidence, the relationship of HR changes over time to development of AF has not been examined....

  14. Incidence rates of carbapenemase-producing Enterobacteriaceae clinical isolates in France: a prospective nationwide study in 2011-12.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robert, Jérôme; Pantel, Alix; Mérens, Audrey; Lavigne, Jean-Philippe; Nicolas-Chanoine, Marie-Hélène

    2014-10-01

    To determine proportions and incidence rates of Enterobacteriaceae producing carbapenemase among those non-susceptible (NS) to carbapenems in France. From November 2011 to April 2012, 71 laboratories recorded non-duplicate Enterobacteriaceae clinical isolates NS to at least one carbapenem and the total number of isolates of the different species. Carbapenem MICs were determined by broth microdilution and the β-lactamase content by DNA microarray. During the study period, the 71 laboratories identified 133 244 Enterobacteriaceae isolates, of which 846 (0.63%) were NS to at least one carbapenem. Carbapenem-NS isolates accounted for 0.07% (61/90 148) among Escherichia coli isolates, 1.1% (111/10 436) among Klebsiella pneumoniae, 8.2% (492/5971) among Enterobacter cloacae and 4.0% (84/2104) among Enterobacter aerogenes. Among the 541 available carbapenem-NS isolates, 222 (including 63 randomly selected E. cloacae) were further analysed after confirmation of carbapenem non-susceptibility. None of the Enterobacter spp. isolates produced carbapenemase. Among the other species, 28 isolates produced carbapenemases (22 OXA-48, 4 KPC and 2 NDM), accounting for an estimated proportion of carbapenemase-producing isolates of 0.08% for all species, 0.01% for E. coli and 0.27% for K. pneumoniae. The incidence-density rate in the participating hospitals was 0.0041 per 1000 hospital-days and the incidence rate was 0.0027 per 100 admissions. The incidence-density rate of carbapenemase-producing isolates per 1000 hospital-days was low and 30-fold lower than that of carbapenem-NS isolates (0.125) and almost 300-fold lower than that of ESBL-producing isolates (1.104) in these French hospitals. © The Author 2014. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the British Society for Antimicrobial Chemotherapy. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  15. Incidence rates of surgically treated rhegmatogenous retinal detachment among manual workers, non-manual workers and housewives in Tuscany, Italy

    OpenAIRE

    Curti, Stefania; Coggon, David; Baldasseroni, Alberto; Cooke, Robin M. T.; Fresina, Michela; Campos, Emilio C; Semeraro, Francesco; Zanardi, Francesca; Farioli, Andrea; Violante, Francesco S.; Mattioli, Stefano

    2013-01-01

    Purpose Candidate risk factors for idiopathic rhegmatogenous retinal detachment (RRD) include heavy manual handling (requiring Valsalva’s maneuver). We assessed incidence rates of surgically treated idiopathic RRD among manual workers, non-manual workers and housewives resident in Tuscany, Italy. Methods We retrieved all hospital discharge records bearing a principal diagnosis corresponding to RRD coupled with retinal surgery for any resident of Tuscany during 1997–2009. After elimination of ...

  16. [Application of linear and nonlinear characteristics of heart rate variability in assessment of autonomic nervous system activity].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shi, Ping; Yu, Hongliu

    2014-04-01

    Calculation of linear parameters, such as time-domain and frequency-domain analysis of heart rate variability (HRV), is a conventional method for assessment of autonomic nervous system activity. Nonlinear phenomena are certainly involved in the genesis of HRV. In a seemingly random signal the Poincaré plot can easily demonstrate whether there is an underlying determinism in the signal. Linear and nonlinear analysis methods were applied in the computer words inputting experiments in this study for physiological measurement. This study therefore demonstrated that Poincaré plot was a simple but powerful graphical tool to describe the dynamics of a system.

  17. Studies on Lyme disease incidence rates in selected groups of forestry workers in West Pomerania, 2005–2014

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tomasz Stawicki

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available Background: The data collected by sanitary-epidemiological stations in 2005–2014 were analyzed to determine the incidence rates of borreliosis Lyme disease in the West Pomerania group of workers exposed to tick bites. Material and Methods: It was assumed that an adequate comparison of official epidemiological data with the data concerning the number of exposed people, is an indispensable condition for assessing properly the trend in Lyme disease incidence rates, concerning at the same time a real scale of occupational exposure. The study covered a selected group of forestry workers, i.e., white-collar staff employed in different units of the State Forests National Forest Holding with their seats in West Pomerania. The aim of the research was to process and analyze the data on workers employed in the forest sector and their positions, requested from district sanitary-epidemiological stations. Results: In the years concerned 282 cases of the occupational disease were recorded mainly in the groups of forest rangers, junior foresters and forest service inspectors. The values of the incidence factor exhibit high variability with the major share of cases recorded in the years 2008–2010 that accounted for 61.8% of the total occurrences concerned. The incidence in the years 2008, 2009 and 2010 amounted to 2418, 2828 and 2646 cases per 100 000 employees, respectively. Conclusions: The results show that previously published information about the incidence of Lyme disease in the agriculture, forestry and hunting sector, did not fully illustrate a real scale of occupational risk. Med Pr 2017;68(2:211–220

  18. Incidence Rate of Concomitant Systemic Diseases in the Aging Population with Postmenopausal Osteoporosis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Selçuk Sayılır

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available Objective: To evaluate the concomitant systemic diseases with postmenopausal osteoporosis and to investigate the points to be considered in treatment approach of patients with osteoporosis. Materials and Methods: The study included 110 female patients admitted to our clinic and followed up after postmenopausal osteoporosis diagnosis. Besides the demographic data; the concomitant diseases of the patients such as hypertension, hypo-hyperthyroidism, diabetes mellitus, Alzheimer’s disease, malignancy, osteoarthritis, gastrointestinal system diseases, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD- asthma and depression were also recorded. Results: The mean age of the patients included in our study was 65.9±9.8 years. When the concomitant systemic diseases were examined; 40 patients had hypertension, 32 patients had osteoarthritis, 24 patients had gastrointestinal tract problems, 22 patients had thyroid disease, 21 patients had depression, 15 patients had hyperlipidemia, 12 patients had diabetes mellitus, 10 patients had COPD - asthma, 7 patients had cardiac diseases, 5 patients had malignancy and 2 patients had Alzheimer disease. Conclusion: Osteoporosis is a common disease in the geriatric population. As a chronic disease with an increasing incidence with aging; it can cause many health problems, prevalently pathological bone fractures, in our country and all over the world. Constitutively, prophylaxis of osteoporosis should be the first step. Because systemic diseases with increasing incidence with aging may affect the severity of osteoporosis and impair the treatment; it is important for both clinicians and the society to have sufficient information about osteoporosis.

  19. Bifurcation of Positive Equilibria in Nonlinear Structured Population Models with Varying Mortality Rates

    CERN Document Server

    Walker, Christoph

    2010-01-01

    A parameter-dependent model involving nonlinear diffusion for an age-structured population is studied. The parameter measures the intensity of the mortality. A bifurcation approach is used to establish existence of positive equilibrium solutions.

  20. Stability and Hopf Bifurcation in a Delayed HIV Infection Model with General Incidence Rate and Immune Impairment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Fuxiang; Jiang, Zhichao

    2015-01-01

    We investigate the dynamical behavior of a delayed HIV infection model with general incidence rate and immune impairment. We derive two threshold parameters, the basic reproduction number R 0 and the immune response reproduction number R 1. By using Lyapunov functional and LaSalle invariance principle, we prove the global stability of the infection-free equilibrium and the infected equilibrium without immunity. Furthermore, the existence of Hopf bifurcations at the infected equilibrium with CTL response is also studied. By theoretical analysis and numerical simulations, the effect of the immune impairment rate on the stability of the infected equilibrium with CTL response has been studied. PMID:26413141

  1. Stability and Hopf Bifurcation in a Delayed HIV Infection Model with General Incidence Rate and Immune Impairment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fuxiang Li

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available We investigate the dynamical behavior of a delayed HIV infection model with general incidence rate and immune impairment. We derive two threshold parameters, the basic reproduction number R0 and the immune response reproduction number R1. By using Lyapunov functional and LaSalle invariance principle, we prove the global stability of the infection-free equilibrium and the infected equilibrium without immunity. Furthermore, the existence of Hopf bifurcations at the infected equilibrium with CTL response is also studied. By theoretical analysis and numerical simulations, the effect of the immune impairment rate on the stability of the infected equilibrium with CTL response has been studied.

  2. Stability and Hopf Bifurcation in a Delayed HIV Infection Model with General Incidence Rate and Immune Impairment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Fuxiang; Ma, Wanbiao; Jiang, Zhichao; Li, Dan

    2015-01-01

    We investigate the dynamical behavior of a delayed HIV infection model with general incidence rate and immune impairment. We derive two threshold parameters, the basic reproduction number R 0 and the immune response reproduction number R 1. By using Lyapunov functional and LaSalle invariance principle, we prove the global stability of the infection-free equilibrium and the infected equilibrium without immunity. Furthermore, the existence of Hopf bifurcations at the infected equilibrium with CTL response is also studied. By theoretical analysis and numerical simulations, the effect of the immune impairment rate on the stability of the infected equilibrium with CTL response has been studied.

  3. FUZZY IDENTIFIER WITH EXPONENTIAL RATE OF CONVERGENCE FOR NONLINEAR DYNAMIC SYSTEMS

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2000-01-01

    In this paper,fuzzy systems are used as identifiers for unknown nonlinear dynamic systems.The fuzzy identifier can incorporate linguistic knowledge of nonlinear dynamic systems with input-output pairs directly into the design.In the case where there is the modelling error,a new identification algorithm is proposed.It is proved that the fuzzy identifier is globally stable and the identification error converges to zero exponentially fast.

  4. Heart rate and blood pressure response to short-term head-down bed rest: a nonlinear approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Balocchi, R; Di Garbo, A; Michelassi, C; Chillemi, S; Varanini, M; Barbi, M; Legramante, J M; Raimondi, G; Zbilut, J P

    2000-06-01

    Although it is well-known that prolonged exposure to microgravity environment such as in space travel results in derangements of orthostasis, recent evidence suggests that even short-term exposure may have similar effects and parallels such common examples as prolonged bed rest. Whereas spectral analysis of heart rate and systolic blood pressure have been unable to detect changes, we hypothesized that nonlinear indexes may be better able to uncover such perturbations. Eighteen healthy subjects were exposed to 4-hour head-down tilt, and of these, 4 exhibited fainting. Two nonlinear indexes, mutual information and recurrence quantification were used to analyze the data. Only recurrence quantification was able to detect a "decoupling" of heart rate and systolic blood pressure at rest using discriminant analysis (p < 0.05). These results suggest that orthostatic intolerance may be due to a decoupling of heart rate from systolic blood pressure reflexive activity occurring at rest.

  5. Non-linear properties of R-R distributions as a measure of heart rate variability

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Irurzun, I.M.; Bergero, P.; Cordero, M.C.; Defeo, M.M.; Vicente, J.L.; Mola, E.E

    2003-06-01

    We analyze the dynamic quality of the R-R interbeat intervals of electrocardiographic signals from healthy people and from patients with premature ventricular contractions (PVCs) by applying different measure algorithms to standardised public domain data sets of heart rate variability. Our aim is to assess the utility of these algorithms for the above mentioned purposes. Long and short time series, 24 and 0.50 h respectively, of interbeat intervals of healthy and PVC subjects were compared with the aim of developing a fast method to investigate their temporal organization. Two different methods were used: power spectral analysis and the integral correlation method. Power spectral analysis has proven to be a powerful tool for detecting long-range correlations. If it is applied in a short time series, power spectra of healthy and PVC subjects show a similar behavior, which disqualifies power spectral analysis as a fast method to distinguish healthy from PVC subjects. The integral correlation method allows us to study the fractal properties of interbeat intervals of electrocardiographic signals. The cardiac activity of healthy and PVC people stems from dynamics of chaotic nature characterized by correlation dimensions d{sub f} equal to 3.40{+-}0.50 and 5.00{+-}0.80 for healthy and PVC subjects respectively. The methodology presented in this article bridges the gap between theoretical and experimental studies of non-linear phenomena. From our results we conclude that the minimum number of coupled differential equations to describe cardiac activity must be six and seven for healthy and PVC individuals respectively. From the present analysis we conclude that the correlation integral method is particularly suitable, in comparison with the power spectral analysis, for the early detection of arrhythmias on short time (0.5 h) series.

  6. Combined effects of family history of CVD and heart rate on ischemic stroke incidence among Inner Mongolians in China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhou, Yipeng; Tian, Yunfan; Zhong, Chongke; Batu, Buren; Xu, Tian; Li, Hongmei; Zhang, Mingzhi; Wang, Aili; Zhang, Yonghong

    2016-05-01

    This study aimed to evaluate the combined effects of family history of cardiovascular diseases (FHCVD) and heart rate on ischemic stroke incidence among Inner Mongolians in China. A prospective cohort study was conducted among 2589 participants aged 20 years and older from Inner Mongolia, China. The participants were divided into four groups according to status of FHCVD and heart rate and followed up from June 2002 to July 2012. Cox proportional hazards models were used to evaluate the combined effects of FHCVD and heart rate on the incidence of ischemic stroke. A total of 76 ischemic stroke occurred during the follow-up period. The observed ischemic stroke cases tended to be older and male, and had higher prevalence of smoking, drinking, hypertension and FHCVD as well as higher systolic and diastolic blood pressures at baseline compared with those who did not experience ischemic stroke. Age- and gender-adjusted hazard ratio (95% confidence interval) of ischemic stroke in the participants with both FHCVD and heart rate ≥ 80 were 2.89 (1.51-5.53), compared with those without FHCVD and heart rate < 80. After multiple adjustment, the association between ischemic stroke risk and both FHCVD and heart rate ≥ 80 remained statistically significant (hazard ratio, 2.47; 95% confidence interval: 1.22-5.01). Our main finding that participants with both FHCVD and faster heart rate have the highest risk of ischemic stroke suggests that faster heart rate may increase the risk of ischemic stroke among people with FHCVD.

  7. Reduced rate of human papillomavirus infection and genetic overtransmission of TP53 72C polymorphic variant lower cervical cancer incidence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alsbeih, Ghazi A; Al-Harbi, Najla M; Bin Judia, Sara S; Khoja, Hatim A; Shoukri, Mohamed M; Tulbah, Asma M

    2017-07-01

    Cervical cancer is a predominantly human papillomavirus (HPV)-driven disease worldwide. However, its incidence is unexplainably low in western Asia, including Saudi Arabia. Using this paradigm, we investigated the role of HPV infection rate and host genetic predisposition in TP53 G72C single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) presumed to affect cancer incidence. Patients treated between 1990 and 2012 were reviewed, and a series of 232 invasive cervical cancer cases were studied and compared with 313 matched controls without cancer. SNP was genotyped by way of direct sequencing. HPV linear array analysis was used to detect and genotype HPV in tumor samples. The incidence of cervical cancer revealed bimodal peaks at 42.5 years, with a slighter rebound at 60.8 years. Among all cases, 77% were HPV-positive and 16 HPV genotypes were detected-mostly genotypes 16 (75%) and 18 (9%)-with no difference by age, histology, or geographical region. Although the TP53 G72C genotype was not associated with overall cervical cancer risk, it was significantly associated with HPV positivity (odds ratio, 0.57; 95% confidence interval, 0.36-0.90; P = .016). Furthermore, the variant C allele was significantly overtransmitted in the population (P Cervical cancer incidence displays bimodal curve peaking at a young age with secondary rebound at older age. The combination of relative low HPV infection and variant TP53 72C allele overtransmission provide a plausible explanation for the low incidence of cervical cancer in our population. Therefore, HPV screening and host SNP genotyping may provide more relevant biomarkers to gauge the risk of developing cervical cancer. Cancer 2017;123:2459-66. © 2017 American Cancer Society. © 2017 The Authors. Cancer published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of American Cancer Society.

  8. Sports members' participation in assessment of incidence rate of injuries in five sports from records of hospital-based clinical treatment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kingma, J; ten Duis, HJ

    This study is about the incidence rate of sports injuries in five different types of sports, gymnastics, soccer, volleyball, hockey, and basketball, for which 5,154 patients were admitted to the Emergency Unit of the Groningen University Hospital during the period 1990 through 1994. Incidence rate

  9. Sports members' participation in assessment of incidence rate of injuries in five sports from records of hospital-based clinical treatment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kingma, J; ten Duis, HJ

    1998-01-01

    This study is about the incidence rate of sports injuries in five different types of sports, gymnastics, soccer, volleyball, hockey, and basketball, for which 5,154 patients were admitted to the Emergency Unit of the Groningen University Hospital during the period 1990 through 1994. Incidence rate h

  10. Sports members' participation in assessment of incidence rate of injuries in five sports from records of hospital-based clinical treatment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kingma, J; ten Duis, HJ

    1998-01-01

    This study is about the incidence rate of sports injuries in five different types of sports, gymnastics, soccer, volleyball, hockey, and basketball, for which 5,154 patients were admitted to the Emergency Unit of the Groningen University Hospital during the period 1990 through 1994. Incidence rate h

  11. Firn thickness variations across the Northeast Greenland Ice Stream margins indicating nonlinear densification rates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Riverman, K. L.; Anandakrishnan, S.; Alley, R. B.; Peters, L. E.; Christianson, K. A.; Muto, A.

    2013-12-01

    Northeast Greenland Ice Stream (NEGIS) is the largest ice stream in Greenland, draining approximately 8.4% of the ice sheet's area. The flow pattern and stability mechanism of this ice stream are unique to others in Greenland and Antarctica, and merit further study to ascertain the sensitivity of this ice stream to future climate change. Geophysical methods are valuable tools for this application, but their results are sensitive to the structure of the firn and any spatial variations in firn properties across a given study region. Here we present firn data from a 40-km-long seismic profile across the upper reaches of NEGIS, collected in the summer of 2012 as part of an integrated ground-based geophysical survey. We find considerable variations in firn thickness that are coincident with the ice stream shear margins, where a thinner firn layer is present within the margins, and a thicker, more uniform firn layer is present elsewhere in our study region. Higher accumulation rates in the marginal surface troughs due to drift-snow trapping can account for some of this increased densification; however, our seismic results also highlight enhanced anisotropy within the firn and upper ice column that is confined to narrow bands within the shear margins. We thus interpret these large firn thickness variations and abrupt changes in anisotropy as indicators of firn densification dependent on the effective stress state as well as the overburden pressure, suggesting that the strain rate increases nonlinearly with stress across the shear margins. A GPS strain grid maintained for three weeks across both margins observed strong side shearing, with rapid stretching and then compression along particle paths, indicating large deviatoric stresses in the margins. This work demonstrates the importance of developing a high-resolution firn densification model when conducting geophysical field work in regions possessing a complex ice flow history; it also motivates the need for a more

  12. A prospective study of physician-observed concussions during junior ice hockey: implications for incidence rates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Echlin, Paul Sean; Tator, Charles H; Cusimano, Michael D; Cantu, Robert C; Taunton, Jack E; Upshur, Ross E G; Hall, Craig R; Johnson, Andrew M; Forwell, Lorie A; Skopelja, Elaine N

    2010-11-01

    The objective of this study was to measure the incidence of concussion (scaled relative to number of athlete exposures) and recurrent concussion within 2 teams of fourth-tier junior ice hockey players (16-21 years old) during 1 regular season. A prospective cohort study called the Hockey Concussion Education Project was conducted during 1 junior ice hockey regular season (2009-2010) involving 67 male fourth-tier ice hockey players (mean age 18.2 ± 1.2 years, range 16-21 years) from 2 teams. Prior to the start of the season, every player underwent baseline assessments using the Sideline Concussion Assessment Tool 2 (SCAT2) and the Immediate Post-Concussion Assessment and Cognitive Test (ImPACT). The study protocol also required players who entered the study during the season to complete baseline SCAT2 and ImPACT testing. If the protocol was not followed, the postinjury test results of a player without true baseline test results would be compared against previously established age and gender group normative levels. Each regular season game was observed by a qualified physician and at least 1 other neutral nonphysician observer. Players who suffered a suspected concussion were evaluated at the game. If a concussion diagnosis was made, the player was subsequently examined in the physician's office for a full clinical evaluation and the SCAT2 and ImPACT were repeated. Based on these evaluations, players were counseled on the decision of when to return to play. Athlete exposure was defined as 1 game played by 1 athlete. Twenty-one concussions occurred during the 52 physician-observed games (incidence 21.5 concussions per 1000 athlete exposures). Five players experienced repeat concussions. No concussions were reported during practice sessions. A concussion was diagnosed by the physician in 19 (36.5%) of the 52 observed games. One of the 5 individuals who suffered a repeat concussion sustained his initial concussion in a regular season game that was not observed by a

  13. A comparative population-based study of prostate cancer incidence and mortality rates in Singapore, Sweden and Geneva, Switzerland from 1973 to 2006

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chen Cynthia

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Prostate cancer is the most commonly diagnosed malignancy in men in Sweden and Geneva, and the third most common in men in Singapore. This population-based study describes trends in the incidence and mortality rates of prostate cancer in Singapore, Sweden and Geneva (Switzerland from 1973 to 2006 and explores possible explanations for these different trends. Methods Data from patients diagnosed with prostate cancer were extracted from national cancer registries in Singapore (n = 5,172, Sweden (n = 188,783 and Geneva (n = 5,755 from 1973 to 2006. Trends of incidence and mortality were reported using the Poisson and negative binomial regression models. The age, period and birth-cohort were tested as predictors of incidence and mortality rates of prostate cancer. Results Incidence rates of prostate cancer increased over all time periods for all three populations. Based on the age-period-cohort analysis, older age and later period of diagnosis were associated with a higher incidence of prostate cancer, whereas older age and earlier period were associated with higher mortality rates for prostate cancer in all three countries. Conclusions This study demonstrated an overall increase in incidence rates and decrease in mortality rates in Singapore, Sweden and Geneva. Both incidence and mortality rates were much lower in Singapore. The period effect is a stronger predictor of incidence and mortality of prostate cancer than the birth-cohort effect.

  14. Global existence and energy decay rates for a Kirchhoff-type wave equation with nonlinear dissipation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Daewook; Kim, Dojin; Hong, Keum-Shik; Jung, Il Hyo

    2014-01-01

    The first objective of this paper is to prove the existence and uniqueness of global solutions for a Kirchhoff-type wave equation with nonlinear dissipation of the form Ku'' + M(|A (1/2) u|(2))Au + g(u') = 0 under suitable assumptions on K, A, M(·), and g(·). Next, we derive decay estimates of the energy under some growth conditions on the nonlinear dissipation g. Lastly, numerical simulations in order to verify the analytical results are given.

  15. Gender-age interaction in incidence rates of childhood emotional disorders

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wesselhoeft, R; Pedersen, C B; Mortensen, P B

    2014-01-01

    rates of emotional disorders throughout childhood. METHOD: This is a population-based cohort study of 907 806 Danish 3- to 18-year-olds. The outcome was assignment of an emotional disorder diagnosis based on in-patient and out-patient data from The Danish Psychiatric Central Register. Outcome measures...

  16. Incidence Rates of Deliberate Self-Harm in Denmark 1994-2011

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Reuter Morthorst, Britt; Soegaard, Bodil; Nordentoft, Merete

    2016-01-01

    BACKGROUND: The validity and reliability of suicide statistics have been questioned and few nationwide studies of deliberate self-harm have been presented. AIM: To calculate rates of deliberate self-harm in Denmark in order to investigate trends and assess the reliability of hospital records. MET...

  17. Data study of death rate and cancer incidence among Thule workers, 2005; Registerundersoegelse af doedelighed og kraeftforekomst blandt Thulearbejdere, 2005

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Juel, K. [Statens Insti. for Folkesundhed, Copenhagen (Denmark); Engholm, G.; Storm, H. [Kraeftens Bekaempelse, Copenhagen (Denmark)

    2005-12-01

    January 21st, 1968, an American B52 bomber with nuclear weapons aboard crashed close to the Thule air-base in Greenland. In 1986 suspicions arose that there might be increased disease incidences and death rate among the employees at the base that were involved in the clearing operations. During 1986 - 1995, several health studies were made of the Thule workers. These studies of death rate, cancer, hospitalization, and fertility did not show any differences between the Thule workers from the clearing operations and those not involved in the clearing. The present study shows no difference in total death rate among the clearing workers compared to other workers. The same results were found for cancer mortality, circulatory diseases, pulmonary diseases, natural causes, and accidents. As the previous studies showed, the present study shows that there were a slightly less number of suicides among the clearing workers. The data analyses show with great certainty that the Thule workers as a group do not have a great excessive mortality or an increased cancer incidence caused by the aircraft crash. Thus, the present results fall in line with the previous investigations. (ln)

  18. Trends in Lung Cancer Incidence Rates by Histological Type in 1975–2008: A Population-Based Study in Osaka, Japan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fukuaki Lee Kinoshita

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available Background: Monitoring trends in lung cancer incidence and mortality is important for the evaluation of cancer control activities. We investigated recent trends in age-standardized incidence rates by histological type of lung cancer in Osaka, Japan. Methods: Cancer incidence data for 1975–2008 were obtained from the Osaka Cancer Registry. Lung cancer mortality data with population data in Osaka during 1975–2012 were obtained from vital statistics. We examined trends in age-standardized incidence and mortality rates for all histological types and age-standardized incidence rates by histological type and age group using a joinpoint regression model. Results: The age-standardized incidence rate of lung cancer levelled off or slightly increased from 1975–2008, with an annual percentage change of 0.3% (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.1%–0.4% for males and 1.1% (95% CI, 0.9%–1.3% for females, and the mortality rate decreased by 0.9% (95% CI, 1.2%–0.7% for males and 0.5% (95% CI, 0.8%–0.3% for females. The incidence rates of squamous cell carcinoma (SQC and small cell carcinoma (SMC significantly decreased for both genders, whereas that of adenocarcinoma (ADC significantly increased among almost all age groups in both genders. Conclusions: The incidence rates of SQC and SMC decreased with the decline in smoking prevalence, which probably explains the change in trends in the incidence rates of lung cancer from the mid-1980s. However, the reason for the increase in ADC remains unclear. Therefore, trends in incidence rates of lung cancer should be carefully monitored, especially for ADC, and the associations between ADC and its possible risk factors should be studied.

  19. Global stability of a multiple delayed viral infection model with general incidence rate and an application to HIV infection.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ji, Yu

    2015-06-01

    In this paper, the dynamical behavior of a viral infection model with general incidence rate and two time delays is studied. By using the Lyapunov functional and LaSalle invariance principle, the global stabilities of the infection-free equilibrium and the endemic equilibrium are obtained. We obtain a threshold of the global stability for the uninfected equilibrium, which means the disease will be under control eventually. These results can be applied to a variety of viral infections of disease that would make it possible to devise optimal treatment strategies. Numerical simulations with application to HIV infection are given to verify the analytical results.

  20. Aflatoxin Contamination of Red Chili Pepper From Bolivia and Peru, Countries with High Gallbladder Cancer Incidence Rates

    OpenAIRE

    2015-01-01

    Chilean red chili peppers contaminated with aflatoxins were reported in a previous study. If the development of gallbladder cancer (GBC) in Chile is associated with a high level of consumption of aflatoxin-contaminated red chili peppers, such peppers from other countries having a high GBC incidence rate may also be contaminated with aflatoxins. We aimed to determine whether this might be the case for red chili peppers from Bolivia and Peru. A total of 7 samples (3 from Bolivia, 4 from Peru) a...

  1. Nonlinear Heart Rate Variability features for real-life stress detection. Case study: students under stress due to university examination.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Melillo, Paolo; Bracale, Marcello; Pecchia, Leandro

    2011-11-07

    This study investigates the variations of Heart Rate Variability (HRV) due to a real-life stressor and proposes a classifier based on nonlinear features of HRV for automatic stress detection. 42 students volunteered to participate to the study about HRV and stress. For each student, two recordings were performed: one during an on-going university examination, assumed as a real-life stressor, and one after holidays. Nonlinear analysis of HRV was performed by using Poincaré Plot, Approximate Entropy, Correlation dimension, Detrended Fluctuation Analysis, Recurrence Plot. For statistical comparison, we adopted the Wilcoxon Signed Rank test and for development of a classifier we adopted the Linear Discriminant Analysis (LDA). Almost all HRV features measuring heart rate complexity were significantly decreased in the stress session. LDA generated a simple classifier based on the two Poincaré Plot parameters and Approximate Entropy, which enables stress detection with a total classification accuracy, a sensitivity and a specificity rate of 90%, 86%, and 95% respectively. The results of the current study suggest that nonlinear HRV analysis using short term ECG recording could be effective in automatically detecting real-life stress condition, such as a university examination.

  2. Nonlinear Heart Rate Variability features for real-life stress detection. Case study: students under stress due to university examination

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Melillo Paolo

    2011-11-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background This study investigates the variations of Heart Rate Variability (HRV due to a real-life stressor and proposes a classifier based on nonlinear features of HRV for automatic stress detection. Methods 42 students volunteered to participate to the study about HRV and stress. For each student, two recordings were performed: one during an on-going university examination, assumed as a real-life stressor, and one after holidays. Nonlinear analysis of HRV was performed by using Poincaré Plot, Approximate Entropy, Correlation dimension, Detrended Fluctuation Analysis, Recurrence Plot. For statistical comparison, we adopted the Wilcoxon Signed Rank test and for development of a classifier we adopted the Linear Discriminant Analysis (LDA. Results Almost all HRV features measuring heart rate complexity were significantly decreased in the stress session. LDA generated a simple classifier based on the two Poincaré Plot parameters and Approximate Entropy, which enables stress detection with a total classification accuracy, a sensitivity and a specificity rate of 90%, 86%, and 95% respectively. Conclusions The results of the current study suggest that nonlinear HRV analysis using short term ECG recording could be effective in automatically detecting real-life stress condition, such as a university examination.

  3. Enhanced surveillance for measles in low-incidence territories of the Russian Federation: defining a rate for suspected case investigation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tikhonova, N T; Bichurina, M A; Gerasimova, A G; Zvirkun, O V; Vladimerova, N P; Mamaeva, T; Lipskaya, G; Elsaadany, S; Spika, J S

    2011-02-01

    The rate of case investigation for measles-like illness (MLI) is an important indicator for the quality of measles surveillance in countries targeting measles elimination. However, a benchmark rate is still being discussed. We assessed different rates of investigation in 11 territories of the Russian Federation with low reported measles incidence during the previous 4-7 years. Each territory maintained their existing surveillance activities and also undertook additional surveillance activities for MLI over a 3-year period. The annual routine rate of investigation varied from 0·06 to 1·8/100,000 population; the overall rate of investigation, including enhanced surveillance, varied from 1·4 to 7·2/100,000. Forty-nine (30·8%) of 159 measles cases detected were identified through enhanced surveillance. Based on the results of this study, the Russian Federation concluded that a rate of routine investigation of 2/100,000 provided the best balance between available resources and sensitivity for detection of measles cases.

  4. The incidence, hospital expenditure, and, 30 day and 1 year mortality rates of spontaneous intracerebral hemorrhage in Taiwan.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chan, Chien-Lung; Ting, Hsien-Wei; Huang, Hsin-Tsung

    2014-01-01

    The risks of morbidity and mortality are high in patients with spontaneous intracerebral hemorrhage (sICH). The medical care resources associated with sICH are also substantial. This study aimed to evaluate the medical expenditure for sICH patients in Taiwan. We analyzed the National Health Insurance Research Database from 2005 to 2010. The inclusion criterion was first-event sICH; traumatic ICH patients were excluded. Student's t-test, multiple linear regression and the chi-squared test were employed as the statistical methods. Our results showed that the incidence of sICH was 40.77 patients per 100,000 of population per year in Taiwan. The incidence increased with age and was greater in men than women. The mean hospital length of stay (LOS) of first-event sICH patients was 31.8 days; the mean LOS in the intensive care unit was 7.9 days; and the mean survival time was 60.4 months. The mortality rate within 30 days and within 1 year was 19.8 and 29.6%, respectively. The mean hospital expenditure of first-event sICH patients was USD $7572, and was highly correlated with LOS. In conclusion, the incidence of sICH in Taiwan is higher than that in white and black populations of northern America and some European countries and lower than that in the Asian populations of Japan and China. The features of male and female sICH patients differ. Our findings suggest that the hospital expenditure and mortality rate of sICH patients in Taiwan are comparable with those of other countries.

  5. Exposure-adjusted incidence rates and severity of competition injuries in Australian amateur taekwondo athletes: a 2-year prospective study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lystad, Reidar P; Graham, Petra L; Poulos, Roslyn G

    2013-05-01

    The main purposes of this study were to determine the injury incidence and severity in Australian amateur taekwondo athletes, and to investigate potential risk factors for injury in competition taekwondo. Data were collected at New South Wales State Championships in 2010 and 2011. Injuries were diagnosed by onsite sports medicine personnel and the actual number of days lost from full participation was used to determine injury severity. Injury incidence rates were calculated per 1000 athlete-exposures (injury incidence rate (IIRAE)) and per 1000 min of exposure (IIRME) and presented with 95% CI. The overall IIRAE and IIRME were 59.93 (95% CI 51.16 to 69.77) and 16.32 (95% CI 13.93 to 19.00), respectively. Children under 10 years had significantly lower IIRAE compared with older age groups and black belts had significantly higher IIRAE compared with yellow belts, however, after accounting for the exposure time it was revealed that 10-year-olds to 14-year-olds and red belts incurred higher IIRME. This study highlights the importance of including IIRs that account for exposure-time. In contrast with previous estimates, the current data indicated that one-third of injuries were moderate to severe. Relative to other body regions the upper limb had a higher proportion of moderate-to-severe injuries, and compared with the lower limb there was a disproportionate number of upper limb injuries resulting in fractures. The findings suggest that the impact of injury on taekwondo athletes is significant, and should serve as an impetus to stakeholders to develop and implement injury prevention activities within the sport.

  6. Identification of Dual-Rate Sampled Hammerstein Systems with a Piecewise-Linear Nonlinearity Using the Key Variable Separation Technique

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ying-Ying Wang

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available The identification difficulties for a dual-rate Hammerstein system lie in two aspects. First, the identification model of the system contains the products of the parameters of the nonlinear block and the linear block, and a standard least squares method cannot be directly applied to the model; second, the traditional single-rate discrete-time Hammerstein model cannot be used as the identification model for the dual-rate sampled system. In order to solve these problems, by combining the polynomial transformation technique with the key variable separation technique, this paper converts the Hammerstein system into a dual-rate linear regression model about all parameters (linear-in-parameter model and proposes a recursive least squares algorithm to estimate the parameters of the dual-rate system. The simulation results verify the effectiveness of the proposed algorithm.

  7. Global stability analysis of two-strain epidemic model with bilinear and non-monotone incidence rates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baba, Isa Abdullahi; Hincal, Evren

    2017-05-01

    In this article we studied an epidemic model consisting of two strains with different types of incidence rates; bilinear and non-monotone. The model consists of four equilibrium points: disease-free equilibrium, endemic with respect to strain 1, endemic with respect to strain 2, and endemic with respect to both strains. The global stability analysis of the equilibrium points was carried out through the use of Lyapunov functions. Two basic reproduction ratios R 1 0 and R 2 0 are found, and we have shown that if both are less than one, the disease dies out, and if both are greater than one epidemic occurs. Furthermore, epidemics occur with respect to any strain with a basic reproduction ratio greater than one and disease dies out with respect to any strain with a basic reproduction ratio less than one. It was also shown that any strain with highest basic reproduction ratio will automatically outperform the other strain, thereby eliminating it. Numerical simulations were carried out to support the analytic result and to show the effect of the parameter k in the non-monotone incidence rate, which describes the psychological effect of general public towards infection.

  8. Modeling the influence of incident angle and deposition rate on a nanostructure grown by oblique angle deposition

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Kun-Dar; Dong, Yu-Wei

    2017-02-01

    In this study, numerical approaches were applied to theoretically investigate the influence of process parameters, such as the incident angle and the deposition rate, on the nanostructural formation of thin films by oblique angle deposition (OAD). A continuum model was first developed, and the atomic diffusion, shadowing effect and steering effect were incorporated in the formation mechanisms of the surface morphology and nanostructure of the deposited films. A characteristic morphology of columnar nanorods corresponding to an OAD was well reproduced through this kinetic model. With the increase of the incident angle, the shadowing effect played a significant role in the columnar structures and the ratio of the surface area to volume was raised, implying a high level of voids in the nanostructures. When the deposition rate decreased, the porosity was notably suppressed due to the atomic diffusion in the growth process. These simulation results coincide well with many experimental observations. With the manipulation of the numerical simulations, the underlying mechanisms of the morphological formation during OAD were revealed, which also provided plentiful information to stimulate the process designs for manufacturing advanced materials.

  9. High rates of incident and prevalent anal human papillomavirus infection among young men who have sex with men.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Glick, Sara Nelson; Feng, Qinghua; Popov, Viorica; Koutsky, Laura A; Golden, Matthew R

    2014-02-01

    There are few published estimates of anal human papillomavirus (HPV) infection rates among young men who have sex with men (YMSM). We estimated incidence and prevalence of type-specific anal HPV infection using clinician-collected anal swabs for HPV DNA testing obtained during a 1-year prospective study of 94 YMSM (mean age, 21 years) in Seattle. Seventy percent of YMSM had any HPV infection detected during the study, and HPV-16 and/or -18 were detected in 37%. The incidence rate for any new HPV infection was 38.5 per 1000 person-months and 15.3 per 1000 person-months for HPV-16/18; 19% had persistent HPV-16/18 infection. No participant tested positive for all 4 HPV types in the quadrivalent vaccine. The number of lifetime male receptive anal sex partners was significantly associated with HPV infection. The prevalence of HPV-16/18 was 6% among YMSM with a history of 1 receptive anal sex partner and 31% among YMSM with ≥ 2 partners. Although the high prevalence of HPV among YMSM highlights the desirability of vaccinating all boys as a strategy to avert the morbidity of HPV infection, most YMSM appear to remain naive to either HPV-16 or -18 well into their sexual lives and would benefit from HPV immunization.

  10. Centenarian Rates and Life Expectancy Related to the Death Rates of Multiple Sclerosis, Asthma, and Rheumatoid Arthritis and the Incidence of Type 1 Diabetes in Children.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lens-Pechakova, Lilia S

    2016-02-01

    The autoimmune diseases are among the 10 leading causes of death for women and the number two cause of chronic illness in America as well as a predisposing factor for cardiovascular diseases and cancer. Patients of some autoimmune diseases have shown a shorter life span and are a model of accelerated immunosenescence. Conversely, centenarians are used as a model of successful aging and have shown several immune parameters that are better preserved and lower levels of autoantibodies. The study reported here focused on clarifying the connection between longevity and some autoimmune and allergic diseases in 29 developed Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries, because multidisciplinary analyses of the accelerated or delayed aging data could show a distinct relationship pattern, help to identify common factors, and determine new important factors that contribute to longevity and healthy aging. The relationships between the mortality rates data of multiple sclerosis (MS), rheumatoid arthritis (RA), asthma, the incidence of type 1 diabetes (T1D) from one side and centenarian rates (two sets) as well as life expectancy data from the other side were assessed using regression models and Pearson correlation coefficients. The data obtained correspond to an inverse linear correlation with different degrees of linearity. This is the first observation of a clear tendency of diminishing centenarian rates or life expectancy in countries having higher death rates of asthma, MS, and RA and a higher incidence of T1D in children. The conclusion is that most probably there are common mechanistic pathways and factors affecting the above diseases and at the same time but in the opposite direction the processes of longevity. Further study, comparing genetic data, mechanistic pathways, and other factors connected to autoimmune diseases with those of longevity could clarify the processes involved, so as to promote longevity and limit the expansion of those

  11. Global Practical Tracking by Output Feedback for Nonlinear Systems with Unknown Growth Rate and Time Delay

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yan, Xuehua

    2014-01-01

    This paper is the further investigation of work of Yan and Liu, 2011, and considers the global practical tracking problem by output feedback for a class of uncertain nonlinear systems with not only unmeasured states dependent growth but also time-varying time delay. Compared with the closely related works, the remarkableness of the paper is that the time-varying time delay and unmeasurable states are permitted in the system nonlinear growth. Motivated by the related tracking results and flexibly using the ideas and techniques of universal control and dead zone, an adaptive output-feedback tracking controller is explicitly designed with the help of a new Lyapunov-Krasovskii functional, to make the tracking error prescribed arbitrarily small after a finite time while keeping all the closed-loop signals bounded. A numerical example demonstrates the effectiveness of the results. PMID:25276859

  12. Learning from an early start but late end epidemics via an incidence rate restricted bivariate distribution and data analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ramalingam Shanmugam

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available Background: An ideal expectation of public health administrators or field medical workers is to have a late start and quick ending of any epidemic. Instead, when an epidemic starts early but ends late, it is where much can be learned from the incidences. A case in point for discussion in this article is the pattern of 2009 H1N1 epidemic. Methods: With a parameter to portray an existing health environment as a deterrent for an epidemic like H1N1 to outbreak in any location at a week, a bivariate distribution is created and is used to analyze the data for a learning so that it helps to prevent a too long prevailing future epidemic. This new distribution is named Incidence Rate Restricted Bivariate Distribution (IRRBGD. Statistical properties of IRRBGD are derived and illustrated using 2009 H1N1 incidences in all five continental regions (Africa, Asia, Europe, Americas, and Oceanic across on earth. Results: The Asian continent, compared to other four continental regions, had most vulnerability for H1N1 incidences. The odds for no H1N1 to occur is lowest only in Oceanic among the four continental regions, namely Africa, Europe, Americas, and Oceanic. Since the beginning of the year 2009 with 52 weeks, the week number, Y in which the H1N1 appeared first and the number, X of weeks the H1N1 continued on in a region are consistently highly correlated in all five continental regions. Conclusions: From the data analyses of 2009 H1N1 incidences, no continental region is risk free with respect another round of H1N1 epidemic in future. The medical community and public healthcare administrators ought to identify the common and region specific unique deterrents of the epidemic like H1N1. The impact of such deterrents to H1N1 is captured in our model and analysis. By increasing the deterrent level, the outbreak of an epidemic like H1N1 could be delayed, according to our model and data information. [Int J Res Med Sci 2015; 3(9.000: 2181-2189

  13. Positive Almost Periodic Solution on a Nonlinear Logistic Biological Model with Grazing Rates

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    NI Hua; TIAN Li-xin

    2013-01-01

    In this paper,we study the following nonlinear biological model dx(t)/dt =x(t)[a(t)-b(t)xα(t)] + f(t,xt),by using fixed pointed theorem,the sufficient conditions of the existence of unique positive almost periodic solution for the above system are obtained,by using the theories of stability,the sufficient conditions which guarantee the stability of the positive almost periodic solution are derived.

  14. Immediate and long term effects of endurance and high intensity interval exercise on linear and nonlinear heart rate variability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perkins, Steven E; Jelinek, Herbert F; Al-Aubaidy, Hayder A; de Jong, Berverlie

    2017-03-01

    Recovery of cardiac autonomic modulation following exercise can be measured using heart rate variability. The objective of this study was to investigate and compare recovery of autonomic cardiac regulation over three days following a single session of high intensity interval training compared to endurance training. Nine untrained students completed two exercise protocols in a one-way crossover design. The endurance protocol consisted of 45min of moderate intensity cycling, and the high intensity interval protocol of six 30s sets of high intensity cycling. Cardiac autonomic activity recovery was measured over three days post-exercise for two hours immediately following each exercise session and each morning thereafter using linear and nonlinear heart rate variability analysis. Both linear and nonlinear measures were significantly decreased immediately following exercise indicating loss of vagal activity. Root mean sum of squared differences (p=0.031) and high frequency (p=0.031) were suppressed following the interval exercise only. The long term correlation of the heart rate applying detrended fluctuation analysis was decreased immediately following endurance training (p=0.039) and trended to increase immediately following the interval protocol (p=0.156). Sample entropy was decreased immediately following both the endurance (p=0.023) and interval (p=0.031) protocols. No exercise effects were noted from 24h post exercise onwards. High intensity interval training had a greater impact on neurocardiac activity than moderate intensity endurance training as indicated by both linear and nonlinear heart rate variability measures. Copyright © 2016 Sports Medicine Australia. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  15. Trends in stage-specific incidence rates for urothelial carcinoma of the bladder in the United States: 1988 to 2006.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nielsen, Matthew E; Smith, Angela B; Meyer, Anne-Marie; Kuo, Tzy-Mey; Tyree, Seth; Kim, William Y; Milowsky, Matthew I; Pruthi, Raj S; Millikan, Robert C

    2014-01-01

    Bladder cancer is notable for a striking heterogeneity of disease-specific risks. Among the approximately 75% of incident cases found to be superficial to the muscularis propria at the time of presentation (non-muscle-invasive bladder cancer), the risk of progression to the lethal phenotype of muscle-invasive disease is strongly associated with stage and grade of disease. Given the suggestion of an increasing percentage of low-risk cases in hospital-based registry data in recent years, the authors hypothesized that population-based data may reveal changes in the stage distribution of early-stage cases. Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) data were used to examine trends for the stage-specific incidence of bladder cancer between 1988 and 2006, adjusted for age, race, and sex, using Joinpoint and nonparametric tests. The adjusted incidence rate of papillary noninvasive (Ta) predominantly low grade (77%) disease was found to increase from 5.52 to 9.09 per 100,000 population (P < .0001), with an average annual percentage change of +3.3. Over the same period, concomitant, albeit smaller, decreases were observed for flat in situ (Tis) and lamina propria-invasive (T1) disease (2.57 to 1.19 and 6.65 to 4.61 per 100,000 population [both P < .0001]; average annual percent change of -5.0 and -1.6, respectively). The trend was most dramatic among patients in the oldest age strata, suggesting a previously unappreciated cohort phenomenon. The findings of the current study should motivate further epidemiological investigations of differential associations of genetic and environmental factors with different bladder cancer phenotypes as well as further scrutiny of clinical practice guideline recommendations for the growing subgroup of predominantly older patients with lower-risk disease. © 2013 American Cancer Society.

  16. Evaluation of the false recent classification rates of multiassay algorithms in estimating HIV type 1 subtype C incidence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moyo, Sikhulile; LeCuyer, Tessa; Wang, Rui; Gaseitsiwe, Simani; Weng, Jia; Musonda, Rosemary; Bussmann, Hermann; Mine, Madisa; Engelbrecht, Susan; Makhema, Joseph; Marlink, Richard; Baum, Marianna K; Novitsky, Vladimir; Essex, M

    2014-01-01

    Laboratory cross-sectional assays are useful for the estimation of HIV incidence, but are known to misclassify individuals with long-standing infection as recently infected. The false recent rate (FRR) varies widely across geographic areas; therefore, accurate estimates of HIV incidence require a locally defined FRR. We determined FRR for Botswana, where HIV-1 subtype C infection is predominant, using the BED capture enzyme immunoassay (BED), a Bio-Rad Avidity Index (BAI) assay (a modification of the Bio-Rad HIV1/2+O EIA), and two multiassay algorithms (MAA) that included clinical data. To estimate FRR, stored blood samples from 512 antiretroviral (ARV)-naive HIV-1 subtype C-infected individuals from a prospective cohort in Botswana were tested at 18-24 months postenrollment. The following FRR mean (95% CI) values were obtained: BED 6.05% (4.15-8.48), BAI 5.57% (3.70-8.0), BED-BAI 2.25% (1.13-4.0), and a combination of BED-BAI with CD4 (>200) and viral load (>400) threshold 1.43% (0.58-2.93). The interassay agreement between BED and BAI was 92.8% (95% CI, 90.1-94.5) for recent/long-term classification. Misclassification was associated with viral suppression for BED [adjusted OR (aOR) 10.31; p=0.008], BAI [aOR 9.72; p=0.019], and MAA1 [aOR 16.6; p=0.006]. Employing MAA can reduce FRR to <2%. A local FRR can improve cross-sectional HIV incidence estimates.

  17. A novel non-linear recursive filter design for extracting high rate pulse features in nuclear medicine imaging and spectroscopy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sajedi, Salar; Kamal Asl, Alireza; Ay, Mohammad R; Farahani, Mohammad H; Rahmim, Arman

    2013-06-01

    Applications in imaging and spectroscopy rely on pulse processing methods for appropriate data generation. Often, the particular method utilized does not highly impact data quality, whereas in some scenarios, such as in the presence of high count rates or high frequency pulses, this issue merits extra consideration. In the present study, a new approach for pulse processing in nuclear medicine imaging and spectroscopy is introduced and evaluated. The new non-linear recursive filter (NLRF) performs nonlinear processing of the input signal and extracts the main pulse characteristics, having the powerful ability to recover pulses that would ordinarily result in pulse pile-up. The filter design defines sampling frequencies lower than the Nyquist frequency. In the literature, for systems involving NaI(Tl) detectors and photomultiplier tubes (PMTs), with a signal bandwidth considered as 15 MHz, the sampling frequency should be at least 30 MHz (the Nyquist rate), whereas in the present work, a sampling rate of 3.3 MHz was shown to yield very promising results. This was obtained by exploiting the known shape feature instead of utilizing a general sampling algorithm. The simulation and experimental results show that the proposed filter enhances count rates in spectroscopy. With this filter, the system behaves almost identically as a general pulse detection system with a dead time considerably reduced to the new sampling time (300 ns). Furthermore, because of its unique feature for determining exact event times, the method could prove very useful in time-of-flight PET imaging.

  18. Genetic selection for health traits using producer-recorded data. I. Incidence rates, heritability estimates, and sire breeding values.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zwald, N R; Weigel, K A; Chang, Y M; Welper, R D; Clay, J S

    2004-12-01

    The objective of this study was to determine the feasibility of genetic selection for health traits in dairy cattle using data recorded in on-farm herd management software programs. Data regarding displaced abomasum (DA), ketosis (KET), mastitis (MAST), lameness (LAME), cystic ovaries (CYST), and metritis (MET) were collected between January 1, 2001 and December 31, 2003 in herds using Dairy Comp 305, DHI-Plus, or PCDART herd management software programs. All herds in this study were either participants in the Alta Genetics (Watertown, WI) Advantage progeny testing program or customers of the Dairy Records Management Systems (Raleigh, NC) processing center. Minimum lactation incidence rates were applied to ensure adequate reporting of these disorders within individual herds. After editing, DA, KET, MAST, LAME, CYST, and MET data from 75,252 (313), 52,898 (250), 105,029 (429), 50,611 (212), 65,080 (340), and 97,318 (418) cows (herds) remained for analysis. Average lactation incidence rates were 0.03, 0.10, 0.20, 0.10, 0.08, and 0.21 for DA, KET, MAST, LAME, CYST, and MET (including retained placenta), respectively. Data for each disorder were analyzed separately using a threshold sire model that included a fixed parity effect and random sire and herd-year-season of calving effects; both first lactation and all lactation analyses were carried out. Heritability estimates from first lactation (all lactation) analyses were 0.18 (0.15) for DA, 0.11 (0.06) for KET, 0.10 (0.09) for MAST, 0.07 (0.06) for LAME, 0.08 (0.05) for CYST, and 0.08 (0.07) for MET. Corresponding heritability estimates for the pooled incidence rate of all diseases between calving and 50 d postpartum were 0.12 and 0.10 for the first and all lactation analyses, respectively. Mean differences in PTA for probability of disease between the 10 best and 10 worst sires were 0.034 for DA, 0.069 for KET, 0.130 for MAST, 0.054 for LAME, 0.039 for CYST, and 0.120 for MET. Based on the results of this study, it

  19. Rate of non-linearity in DMS aerosol-cloud-climate interactions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. A. Thomas

    2011-11-01

    Full Text Available The degree of non-linearity in DMS-cloud-climate interactions is assessed using the ECHAM5-HAMMOZ model by taking into account end-to-end aerosol chemistry-cloud microphysics link. The evaluation is made over the Southern oceans in austral summer, a region of minimal anthropogenic influence. In this study, we compare the DMS-derived changes in the aerosol and cloud microphysical properties between a baseline simulation with the ocean DMS emissions from a prescribed climatology, and a scenario where the DMS emissions are doubled. Our results show that doubling the DMS emissions in the current climate results in a non-linear response in atmospheric DMS burden and subsequently, in SO2 and H2SO4 burdens due to inadequate OH oxidation. The aerosol optical depth increases by only ~20 % in the 30° S–75° S belt in the SH summer months. This increases the vertically integrated cloud droplet number concentrations (CDNC by 25 %. Since the vertically integrated liquid water vapor is constant in our model simulations, an increase in CDNC leads to a reduction in cloud droplet radius of 3.4 % over the Southern oceans in summer. The equivalent increase in cloud liquid water path is 10.7 %. The above changes in cloud microphysical properties result in a change in global annual mean radiative forcing at the TOA of −1.4 W m−2. The results suggest that the DMS-cloud microphysics link is highly non-linear. This has implications for future studies investigating the DMS-cloud climate feedbacks in a warming world and for studies evaluating geoengineering options to counteract warming by modulating low level marine clouds.

  20. Potential impact on HIV incidence of higher HIV testing rates and earlier antiretroviral therapy initiation in MSM

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Phillips, Andrew N; Cambiano, Valentina; Miners, Alec

    2015-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Increased rates of testing, with early antiretroviral therapy (ART) initiation, represent a key potential HIV-prevention approach. Currently, in MSM in the United Kingdom, it is estimated that 36% are diagnosed by 1 year from infection, and the ART initiation threshold is at CD4 cell...... on HIV in MSM in the United Kingdom. Outcomes were projected according to future alternative HIV testing and ART initiation scenarios to 2030, considering also potential changes in levels of condomless sex. RESULTS: For ART use to result in an incidence of close to 1/1000 person-years requires...... the proportion of all HIV-positive MSM with viral suppression to increase from below 60% currently to 90%, assuming no rise in levels of condomless sex. Substantial increases in HIV testing, such that over 90% of men are diagnosed within a year of infection, would increase the proportion of HIV-positive men...

  1. The effect of nonlinearity in CO2 heating rates on the attribution of stratospheric ozone and temperature changes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. G. Shepherd

    2009-11-01

    Full Text Available An analysis of the attribution of past and future changes in stratospheric ozone and temperature to anthropogenic forcings is presented. The analysis is an extension of the study of Shepherd and Jonsson (2008 who analyzed chemistry-climate simulations from the Canadian Middle Atmosphere Model (CMAM and attributed both past and future changes to changes in the external forcings, i.e. the abundances of ozone-depleting substances (ODS and well-mixed greenhouse gases. The current study is based on a new CMAM dataset and includes two important changes. First, we account for the nonlinear radiative response to changes in CO2. It is shown that over centennial time scales the radiative response in the upper stratosphere to CO2 changes is significantly nonlinear and that failure to account for this effect leads to a significant error in the attribution. To our knowledge this nonlinearity has not been considered before in attribution analysis, including multiple linear regression studies. For the regression analysis presented here the nonlinearity was taken into account by using CO2 heating rate, rather than CO2 abundance, as the explanatory variable. This approach yields considerable corrections to the results of the previous study and can be recommended to other researchers. Second, an error in the way the CO2 forcing changes are implemented in the CMAM was corrected, which significantly affects the results for the recent past. As the radiation scheme, based on Fomichev et al. (1998, is used in several other models we provide some description of the problem and how it was fixed.

  2. Aflatoxin contamination of red chili pepper from Bolivia and Peru, countries with high gallbladder cancer incidence rates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Asai, Takao; Tsuchiya, Yasuo; Okano, Kiyoshi; Piscoya, Alejandro; Nishi, Carlos Yoshito; Ikoma, Toshikazu; Oyama, Tomizo; Ikegami, Kikuo; Yamamoto, Masaharu

    2012-01-01

    Chilean red chili peppers contaminated with aflatoxins were reported in a previous study. If the development of gallbladder cancer (GBC) in Chile is associated with a high level of consumption of aflatoxin-contaminated red chili peppers, such peppers from other countries having a high GBC incidence rate may also be contaminated with aflatoxins. We aimed to determine whether this might be the case for red chili peppers from Bolivia and Peru. A total of 7 samples (3 from Bolivia, 4 from Peru) and 3 controls (2 from China, 1 from Japan) were evaluated. Aflatoxins were extracted with acetonitrile:water (9:1, v/v) and eluted through an immuno-affinity column. The concentrations of aflatoxins B1, B2, G1, and G2 were measured using high-performance liquid chromatography (HPLC), and then the detected aflatoxins were identified using HPLC-mass spectrometry. In some but not all of the samples from Bolivia and Peru, aflatoxin B1 or aflatoxins B1 and B2 were detected. In particular, aflatoxin B1 or total aflatoxin concentrations in a Bolivian samples were above the maximum levels for aflatoxins in spices proposed by the European Commission. Red chili peppers from Bolivia and Peru consumed by populations having high GBC incidence rates would appear to be contaminated with aflatoxins. These data suggest the possibility that a high level of consumption of aflatoxin-contaminated red chili peppers is related to the development of GBC, and the association between the two should be confirmed by a case-control study.

  3. Incidence rates and management of urinary tract infections among children in Dutch general practice: results from a nation-wide registration study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kwok, Wing-Yee; de Kwaadsteniet, Marjolein CE; Harmsen, Mirjam; van Suijlekom-Smit, Lisette WA; Schellevis, François G; van der Wouden, Johannes C

    2006-01-01

    Background We aimed to investigate incidence rates of urinary tract infections in Dutch general practice and their association with gender, season and urbanisation level, and to analyse prescription and referral in case of urinary tract infections. Method During one calendar year, 195 general practitioners in 104 practices in the Netherlands registered all their patient contacts. This study was performed by the Netherlands Institute for Health Services Research (NIVEL) in 2001. Of 82,053 children aged 0 to 18 years, the following variables were collected: number of episodes per patient, number of contacts per episode, month of the year in which the diagnosis of urinary tract infection was made, age, gender, urbanisation level, drug prescription and referral. Results The overall incidence rate was 19 episodes per 1000 person years. The incidence rate in girls was 8 times as high as in boys. The incidence rate in smaller cities and rural areas was 2 times as high as in the three largest cities. Throughout the year, incidence rates varied with a decrease in summertime for children at the age of 0 to 12 years. Of the prescriptions, 66% were in accordance with current guidelines, but only 18% of the children who had an indication were actually referred. Conclusion This study shows that incidence rates of urinary tract infections are not only related to gender and season, but also to urbanisation. General practitioners in the Netherlands frequently do not follow the clinical guidelines for urinary tract infections, especially with respect to referral. PMID:16584577

  4. Incidence rates and management of urinary tract infections among children in Dutch general practice: results from a nation-wide registration study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Schellevis François G

    2006-04-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background We aimed to investigate incidence rates of urinary tract infections in Dutch general practice and their association with gender, season and urbanisation level, and to analyse prescription and referral in case of urinary tract infections. Method During one calendar year, 195 general practitioners in 104 practices in the Netherlands registered all their patient contacts. This study was performed by the Netherlands Institute for Health Services Research (NIVEL in 2001. Of 82,053 children aged 0 to 18 years, the following variables were collected: number of episodes per patient, number of contacts per episode, month of the year in which the diagnosis of urinary tract infection was made, age, gender, urbanisation level, drug prescription and referral. Results The overall incidence rate was 19 episodes per 1000 person years. The incidence rate in girls was 8 times as high as in boys. The incidence rate in smaller cities and rural areas was 2 times as high as in the three largest cities. Throughout the year, incidence rates varied with a decrease in summertime for children at the age of 0 to 12 years. Of the prescriptions, 66% were in accordance with current guidelines, but only 18% of the children who had an indication were actually referred. Conclusion This study shows that incidence rates of urinary tract infections are not only related to gender and season, but also to urbanisation. General practitioners in the Netherlands frequently do not follow the clinical guidelines for urinary tract infections, especially with respect to referral.

  5. Forecasting the EMU inflation rate: Linear econometric vs. non-linear computational models using genetic neural fuzzy systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kooths, Stefan; Mitze, Timo Friedel; Ringhut, Eric

    2004-01-01

    This paper compares the predictive power of linear econometric and non-linear computational models for forecasting the inflation rate in the European Monetary Union (EMU). Various models of both types are developed using different monetary and real activity indicators. They are compared according...... to a battery of parametric and non-parametric test statistics to measure their performance in one- and four-step ahead forecasts of quarterly data. Using genetic-neural fuzzy systems we find the computational approach superior to some degree and show how to combine both techniques successfully....

  6. Comparison of linear and nonlinear feedback control of heart rate for treadmill running

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Hunt, Kenneth J; Maurer, Roman R

    2016-01-01

    Heart rate can be used to define exercise intensity; feedback control systems for treadmills which automatically adjust speed to track arbitrary heart rate target profiles are therefore of interest...

  7. First-Ever Stroke and Transient Ischemic Attack Incidence and 30-Day Case-Fatality Rates in a Population-Based Study in Argentina

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bahit, M Cecilia; Coppola, Mariano L; Riccio, Patricia M

    2016-01-01

    BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Epidemiological data about stroke are scarce in low- and middle-income Latin-American countries. We investigated annual incidence of first-ever stroke and transient ischemic attack (TIA) and 30-day case-fatality rates in a population-based setting in Tandil, Argentina....... METHODS: We prospectively identified all first-ever stroke and TIA cases from overlapping sources between January 5, 2013, and April 30, 2015, in Tandil, Argentina. We calculated crude and standardized incidence rates. We estimated 30-day case-fatality rates. RESULTS: We identified 334 first-ever strokes.......1% (95% CI, 14.2-36.6) for intracerebral hemorrhage, and 1.9% (95% CI, 0.4-5.8) for TIA. CONCLUSIONS: This study provides the first prospective population-based stroke and TIA incidence and case-fatality estimate in Argentina. First-ever stroke incidence was lower than that reported in previous Latin...

  8. Application of a novel grey self-memory coupling model to forecast the incidence rates of two notifiable diseases in China: dysentery and gonorrhea.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiaojun Guo

    Full Text Available OBJECTIVE: In this study, a novel grey self-memory coupling model was developed to forecast the incidence rates of two notifiable infectious diseases (dysentery and gonorrhea; the effectiveness and applicability of this model was assessed based on its ability to predict the epidemiological trend of infectious diseases in China. METHODS: The linear model, the conventional GM(1,1 model and the GM(1,1 model with self-memory principle (SMGM(1,1 model were used to predict the incidence rates of the two notifiable infectious diseases based on statistical incidence data. Both simulation accuracy and prediction accuracy were assessed to compare the predictive performances of the three models. The best-fit model was applied to predict future incidence rates. RESULTS: Simulation results show that the SMGM(1,1 model can take full advantage of the systematic multi-time historical data and possesses superior predictive performance compared with the linear model and the conventional GM(1,1 model. By applying the novel SMGM(1,1 model, we obtained the possible incidence rates of the two representative notifiable infectious diseases in China. CONCLUSION: The disadvantages of the conventional grey prediction model, such as sensitivity to initial value, can be overcome by the self-memory principle. The novel grey self-memory coupling model can predict the incidence rates of infectious diseases more accurately than the conventional model, and may provide useful references for making decisions involving infectious disease prevention and control.

  9. Comparison of the Postoperative Incidence Rate of Capsular Contracture among Different Breast Implants: A Cumulative Meta-Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Xing; Zhou, Liang; Pan, Fuqiang; Gao, Yang; Yuan, Xi; Fan, Dongli

    2015-01-01

    Background A large number of clinical studies have reported that the different materials used in breast implants were a possible cause of the different incidence rates of capsular contracture observed in patients after implantation. However, this theory lacks comprehensive support from evidence-based medicine, and considerable controversy remains. Objectives In this study, a cumulative systematic review examined breast augmentation that used implants with textured or smooth surfaces to analyze the effects of these two types of implants on the occurrence of postoperative capsular contracture. Methods We conducted a comprehensive search of literature databases, including PubMed and EMBASE, for clinical reports on the incidence of capsular contracture after the implantation of breast prostheses. We performed a cumulative meta-analysis on the incidence of capsular contracture in order from small to large sample sizes and conducted subgroup analyses according to the prosthetic material used, the implant pocket placement, the incision type and the duration of follow-up. Relative risks (RR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) were used as the final pooled statistics. Results This meta-analysis included 16 randomized controlled trials (RCTs) and two retrospective studies. The cumulative comparison of textured and smooth breast implants showed statistical significance at 2.13 (95% CI, 1.18-3.86) when the fourth study was entered into the analysis. With the inclusion of more reports, the final results indicated that smooth breast implants were more likely to be associated with capsular contracture, with statistical significance at 3.10 (95% CI, 2.23-4.33). In the subgroup analyses, the subgroups based on implant materials included the silicone implant group and the saline implant group, with significant pooled statistical levels of 4.05 (95% CI, 1.97-8.31) and 3.12 (95% CI, 2.19-4.42), respectively. According to implant pocket placement, a subglandular group and a submuscular

  10. Time trends in lifetime incidence rates of first-time diagnosed anorexia nervosa and bulimia nervosa across 16 years in a Danish nationwide psychiatric registry study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Steinhausen, Hans-Christoph; Jensen, Christina Mohr

    2015-11-01

    To study recent time trends in the incidence of diagnosed anorexia nervosa (AN) and bulimia nervosa (BN) based on nationwide psychiatric register data. The Danish Psychiatric Central Research Registry was used to identify the incidence of diagnosed cases with AN and BN at the ages of 4-65 years from 1995 to 2010. Age- and sex-adjusted incidence rates per 100,000 person-years were calculated and were adjusted for time trends in the total number of people diagnosed in psychiatry. Time trends were analyzed using JoinPoint regression analysis. A total of N = 5,902 persons had a first-time incidence of AN, and a total of N = 5,113 had first-time incidence of BN. Incidence rates increased for AN from 6.4 to 12.6 per 100,000 person-years, and for BN from 6.3 to 7.2 per 100,000 person-years. In 2010, the male-to-female ratio was 1:8 for AN, and 1:20 for BN. There was an earlier onset for AN than for BN, and age at incidence decreased during the observation period for AN but not for BN. A sizeable part of the increasing incidence rates for AN and in particular, the younger AN age groups, could be attributed to an increase in the total number of N = 249,607 persons with first-time diagnoses in psychiatry. Incidence rates had increased slightly for AN, but were stable for BN across 16 years in this nationwide study and to a large extent were reflective of a general increase in diagnosed mental disorders. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  11. Classification of acute stress using linear and non-linear heart rate variability analysis derived from sternal ECG.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tanev, George; Saadi, Dorthe B; Hoppe, Karsten; Sorensen, Helge B D

    2014-01-01

    Chronic stress detection is an important factor in predicting and reducing the risk of cardiovascular disease. This work is a pilot study with a focus on developing a method for detecting short-term psychophysiological changes through heart rate variability (HRV) features. The purpose of this pilot study is to establish and to gain insight on a set of features that could be used to detect psychophysiological changes that occur during chronic stress. This study elicited four different types of arousal by images, sounds, mental tasks and rest, and classified them using linear and non-linear HRV features from electrocardiograms (ECG) acquired by the wireless wearable ePatch® recorder. The highest recognition rates were acquired for the neutral stage (90%), the acute stress stage (80%) and the baseline stage (80%) by sample entropy, detrended fluctuation analysis and normalized high frequency features. Standardizing non-linear HRV features for each subject was found to be an important factor for the improvement of the classification results.

  12. Pediatric inflammatory bowel disease: Increasing incidence, decreasing surgery rate, and compromised nutritional status: A prospective population-based cohort study 2007-2009

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jakobsen, Christian; Paerregaard, Anders; Munkholm, Pia

    2011-01-01

    Background: The aim was to evaluate the incidence, treatment, surgery rate, and anthropometry at diagnosis of children with inflammatory bowel disease (IBD). Methods: Patients diagnosed between January 1, 2007 to December 31, 2009 in Eastern Denmark, Funen, and Aarhus were included from a backgro...... pediatric population. Conclusions: Over the past 12 years we found an increase in the incidence of IBD in children, an increasing use of IM, and decreasing 1-year surgery rates. CD patients had poor nutritional status.......Background: The aim was to evaluate the incidence, treatment, surgery rate, and anthropometry at diagnosis of children with inflammatory bowel disease (IBD). Methods: Patients diagnosed between January 1, 2007 to December 31, 2009 in Eastern Denmark, Funen, and Aarhus were included from...... a background population of 668,056 children surgery rate, a subcohort from Eastern Denmark was extracted for comparison with a previously published population-based cohort from the same geographical area (1998–2006). Results: In all, 130 children...

  13. We should be using nonlinear indices when relating heart-rate dynamics to cognition and mood

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Young, Hayley; Benton, David

    2015-01-01

    Both heart rate (HR) and brain functioning involve the integrated output of a multitude of regulatory mechanisms, that are not quantified adequately by linear approximations such as means and standard deviations...

  14. Petrological evidence for non-linear increase of magmatic intrusion rates before eruption at open vent mafic volcanoe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ruth, D. C. S.; Costa Rodriguez, F.

    2015-12-01

    The most active volcanoes on earth erupt in a yearly to decadal time scales, typically erupt mafic magmas and are open-vent systems with prominent degassing plumes (e.g. Mayon, Arenal, Llaima, Etna). Here we investigate the plumbing systems, dynamics, and processes that drive eruptions at these systems. These are key questions for improving hazard evaluation, and better understanding the unrest associated with these types of volcanoes. The petrology and geochemistry from six historical eruptions (1947-2006) of Mayon volcano (Philippines) shows that all lavas are basaltic andesite with phenocrysts of plagioclase + orthopyroxene (Opx) + clinopyroxene. Opx crystals show a variety of compositions and zoning patterns (reverse, normal or complex) with Mg# (= 100 *Mg/[Mg+Fe]) varying from 67 to 81. The simplest interpretation is that the low Mg# parts of the crystals resided on an upper crustal and crystal rich reservoir that was intruded by more primitive magmas from which the high Mg# parts of the crystals grew. Modelling Mg-Fe diffusion in Opx shows that times since magma injection and eruption range from a few days up to 3.5 years in all of the investigated eruptions. The longest diffusion times are shorter than the repose times between the eruptions, which implies that crystal recycling between eruptive events is negligible. This is a surprising result that shows that for each eruption a different part of the evolved crystal-rich plumbing system is activated. This can be due to random intrusion location or an irreversibility of the plumbing system that prevents multiple eruptions from the same crystal-rich part. Moreover, we find that the number of intrusions markedly increases before each eruption in a non-linear manner. Such an increased rate of intrusions with time might reflect non-linear rheological properties of the crystal-rich system, of the enclosing rocks, or the non-linear evolution of crystal-melt reaction-dissolution fronts during magma intrusions.

  15. Frequency sweep rates of rising tone electromagnetic ion cyclotron waves: Comparison between nonlinear theory and Cluster observation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    He, Zhaoguo [Center for Space Science and Applied Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190 (China); University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049 (China); Zong, Qiugang, E-mail: qgzong@gmail.com; Wang, Yongfu [Institute of Space Physics and Applied Technology, Peking University, Beijing 100871 (China); Liu, Siqing; Lin, Ruilin; Shi, Liqin [Center for Space Science and Applied Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190 (China)

    2014-12-15

    Resonant pitch angle scattering by electromagnetic ion cyclotron (EMIC) waves has been suggested to account for the rapid loss of ring current ions and radiation belt electrons. For the rising tone EMIC wave (classified as triggered EMIC emission), its frequency sweep rate strongly affects the efficiency of pitch-angle scattering. Based on the Cluster observations, we analyze three typical cases of rising tone EMIC waves. Two cases locate at the nightside (22.3 and 22.6 magnetic local time (MLT)) equatorial region and one case locates at the duskside (18MLT) higher magnetic latitude (λ = –9.3°) region. For the three cases, the time-dependent wave amplitude, cold electron density, and cold ion density ratio are derived from satellite data; while the ambient magnetic field, thermal proton perpendicular temperature, and the wave spectral can be directly provided by observation. These parameters are input into the nonlinear wave growth model to simulate the time-frequency evolutions of the rising tones. The simulated results show good agreements with the observations of the rising tones, providing further support for the previous finding that the rising tone EMIC wave is excited through the nonlinear wave growth process.

  16. Frequency sweep rates of rising tone electromagnetic ion cyclotron waves: Comparison between nonlinear theory and Cluster observation

    Science.gov (United States)

    He, Zhaoguo; Zong, Qiugang; Liu, Siqing; Wang, Yongfu; Lin, Ruilin; Shi, Liqin

    2014-12-01

    Resonant pitch angle scattering by electromagnetic ion cyclotron (EMIC) waves has been suggested to account for the rapid loss of ring current ions and radiation belt electrons. For the rising tone EMIC wave (classified as triggered EMIC emission), its frequency sweep rate strongly affects the efficiency of pitch-angle scattering. Based on the Cluster observations, we analyze three typical cases of rising tone EMIC waves. Two cases locate at the nightside (22.3 and 22.6 magnetic local time (MLT)) equatorial region and one case locates at the duskside (18MLT) higher magnetic latitude (λ = -9.3°) region. For the three cases, the time-dependent wave amplitude, cold electron density, and cold ion density ratio are derived from satellite data; while the ambient magnetic field, thermal proton perpendicular temperature, and the wave spectral can be directly provided by observation. These parameters are input into the nonlinear wave growth model to simulate the time-frequency evolutions of the rising tones. The simulated results show good agreements with the observations of the rising tones, providing further support for the previous finding that the rising tone EMIC wave is excited through the nonlinear wave growth process.

  17. Influence of polarization state, baud rate and PMD on non-linear impairments in WDM systems with mixed PM (D)QPSK and OOK channels.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chughtai, Mohsan Niaz; Forzati, Marco; Mårtensson, Jonas; Rafique, Danish

    2012-03-26

    In this paper we numerically investigate nonlinear impairments in a WDM system with mixed PM (D)QPSK and OOK channels. First we analyze the dependence of XPM and XPolM on SOP and baud rate in absence of PMD. In this case we find that the nonlinear impairments are highly dependent on relative SOP between the PM (D)QPSK and neighbouring OOK channels. The dependence on relative SOP is more pronounced in differential detection than in coherent detection. However, with increasing values of PMD this dependence decreases, and non-linear tolerance improves.

  18. Identical parallel machine scheduling with nonlinear deterioration and multiple rate modifying activities

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ömer Öztürkoğlu

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available This study focuses on identical parallel machine scheduling of jobs with deteriorating processing times and rate-modifying activities. We consider non linearly increasing processing times of jobs based on their position assignment. Rate modifying activities are also considered to recover the increase in processing times of jobs due to deterioration. We also propose heuristics algorithms that rely on ant colony optimization and simulated annealing algorithms to solve the problem with multiple RMAs in a reasonable amount of time. Finally, we show that ant colony optimization algorithm generates close optimal solutions and superior results than simulated annealing algorithm.

  19. Error-rate estimation in discriminant analysis of non-linear longitudinal data: A comparison of resampling methods.

    Science.gov (United States)

    de la Cruz, Rolando; Fuentes, Claudio; Meza, Cristian; Núñez-Antón, Vicente

    2016-07-08

    Consider longitudinal observations across different subjects such that the underlying distribution is determined by a non-linear mixed-effects model. In this context, we look at the misclassification error rate for allocating future subjects using cross-validation, bootstrap algorithms (parametric bootstrap, leave-one-out, .632 and [Formula: see text]), and bootstrap cross-validation (which combines the first two approaches), and conduct a numerical study to compare the performance of the different methods. The simulation and comparisons in this study are motivated by real observations from a pregnancy study in which one of the main objectives is to predict normal versus abnormal pregnancy outcomes based on information gathered at early stages. Since in this type of studies it is not uncommon to have insufficient data to simultaneously solve the classification problem and estimate the misclassification error rate, we put special attention to situations when only a small sample size is available. We discuss how the misclassification error rate estimates may be affected by the sample size in terms of variability and bias, and examine conditions under which the misclassification error rate estimates perform reasonably well.

  20. Fully band-resolved scattering rate in MgB2 revealed by the nonlinear hall effect and magnetoresistance measurements.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Huan; Liu, Yi; Zhuang, Chenggang; Shi, Junren; Yao, Yugui; Massidda, Sandro; Monni, Marco; Jia, Ying; Xi, Xiaoxing; Li, Qi; Liu, Zi-Kui; Feng, Qingrong; Wen, Hai-Hu

    2008-08-01

    We have measured the normal state temperature dependence of the Hall effect and magnetoresistance in epitaxial MgB2 thin films with variable disorders characterized by the residual resistance ratio RRR ranging from 4.0 to 33.3. A strong nonlinearity of the Hall effect and magnetoresistance have been found in clean samples, and they decrease gradually with the increase of disorders or temperature. By fitting the data to the theoretical model based on the Boltzmann equation and ab initio calculations for a four-band system, for the first time, we derived the scattering rates of these four bands at different temperatures and magnitude of disorders. Our method provides a unique way to derive these important parameters in multiband systems.

  1. Induction of chromosome aberrations is non-linear within the low dose region and depends on dose rate

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Oudalova, A.A.; Geras' kin, S.A.; Dikarev, V.G.; Nesterov, Y.B.; Dikareva, N.S

    2002-07-01

    The low dose region was evaluated for meristem cells of spring barley. A study of the cytogenetic damage in the low dose range was carried out to determine the genuine shape of the dose curve. The relationship between the frequency of aberrant cells and the absorbed dose is shown to be non-linear with a site at low doses within which the cytogenetic damage exceeds the control level significantly and does not depend on dose value. Within the tested exposure region, the aberrant cell frequency is found to decrease with increasing dose rate, but the shape of the dose curve remained invariable. The piecewise linear model fits the experimental data much better than the linear one. (author)

  2. Time-series analysis of the impact of bed occupancy rates on the incidence of methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus infection in overcrowded general wards.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Borg, Michael A; Suda, David; Scicluna, Elizabeth

    2008-06-01

    We investigated the impact of bed occupancy, particularly overcrowding, on the incidence of methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) infection in general ward settings. We performed a time-series and mixed-model analysis of variance of monthly incidence of MRSA infection and corresponding bed occupancy rates, over 65 months, in the medicine and surgical wards within St. Luke's Hospital, a 900-bed tertiary care facility in Malta. In the medicine wards, significant periodic fluctuations in bed demand were evident during the study period, with peaks of occupancy greater than 120% during the winter months. Cross-correlation analysis between the rate of bed occupancy and the rate of MRSA infection displayed an oscillatory configuration, with a periodicity of 12, similar to the periodicity evident in the autocorrelation bed-occupancy pattern. Further statistical analysis by means of analysis of variance confirmed that the months with excessive overcrowding tended to coincide with a significant increase in the rate of MRSA infection, occurring after a lag of approximately 2 months. Identical analysis of equivalent data from the surgical wards also revealed significant fluctuation in the rate of bed occupancy; however, occupancy never exceeded 100%. No cross-correlational relationship with MRSA infection incidence was present. The study data suggest that, in our setting, simple fluctuations in the rate of bed occupancy did not have a direct impact on the incidence of MRSA infection as long as the rate of bed occupancy was within designated levels. Rather, it was episodes of significant overcrowding, with occupancy levels in excess of designated numbers, that triggered increases in infection incidence rates.

  3. Analysis of vadose zone inhomogeneity toward distinguishing recharge rates: Solving the nonlinear interface problem with Newton method

    Science.gov (United States)

    Steward, David R.

    2016-11-01

    Recharge from surface to groundwater is an important component of the hydrological cycle, yet its rate is difficult to quantify. Percolation through two-dimensional circular inhomogeneities in the vadose zone is studied where one soil type is embedded within a uniform background, and nonlinear interface conditions in the quasilinear formulation are solved using Newton's method with the Analytic Element Method. This numerical laboratory identifies detectable variations in pathline and pressure head distributions that manifest due to a shift in recharge rate through in a heterogeneous media. Pathlines either diverge about or converge through coarser and finer grained materials with inverse patterns forming across lower and upper elevations; however, pathline geometry is not significantly altered by recharge. Analysis of pressure head in lower regions near groundwater identifies a new phenomenon: its distribution is not significantly impacted by an inhomogeneity soil type, nor by its placement nor by recharge rate. Another revelation is that pressure head for coarser grained inhomogeneities in upper regions is completely controlled by geometry and conductivity contrasts; a shift in recharge generates a difference Δp that becomes an additive constant with the same value throughout this region. In contrast, shifts in recharge for finer grained inhomogeneities reveal patterns with abrupt variations across their interfaces. Consequently, measurements aimed at detecting shifts in recharge in a heterogeneous vadose zone by deciphering the corresponding patterns of change in pressure head should focus on finer grained inclusions well above a groundwater table.

  4. Pathogen-specific incidence rate of clinical mastitis in Flemish dairy herds, severity, and association with herd hygiene.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Verbeke, Joren; Piepers, Sofie; Supré, Karlien; De Vliegher, Sarne

    2014-11-01

    A one-year survey on clinical mastitis was conducted on 50 randomly selected commercial Flemish dairy herds to estimate the pathogen-specific incidence rate of clinical mastitis (IRCM). The severity of the cases and the potential associations with herd hygiene were studied. Participating producers sampled 845 cases and 692 dairy cows. The mean and median IRCM was estimated at 7.4 and 5.3 quarter cases per 10,000 cow-days at risk, respectively. A large between-herd variation was observed (range of 0-21.3). In general, the IRCM was lower in heifers compared with multiparous cows (2.9 vs. 11.0 quarter cases per 10,000 cow-days at risk). However, the overall IRCM in the first week after calving was higher in heifers compared with cows (43.4 vs. 31.6 quarter cases per 10,000 cow-days at risk). Streptococcus uberis (18.2% of the cases) and Escherichia coli (15.5%) were the most frequently isolated pathogens and no growth was observed in 19.9% of the cases. The majority of the cases (63.1%) were mild (only clots in milk). Moderate (hard quarter without general signs) and severe symptoms (systemic illness) were observed in 29.9 and 7.0% of the cases, respectively. Isolation of E. coli (vs. any other culture result) was more likely in moderate and severe cases compared with mild cases. Overall IRCM and E. coli IRCM were higher in dirty compared with clean herds based on udder hygiene scores (9.0 and 1.7 vs. 6.0 and 0.6 quarter cases per 10,000 cow-days at risk, respectively). This study broadens the knowledge on clinical mastitis in Flemish dairy herds and underlines the high risk of CM in early-lactation heifers, the role of the so-called environmental pathogens, and herd hygiene.

  5. AGE-DEPENDENT ASPECTS OF ACUTE CORONARY HEART DISEASE INCIDENCE RATE AND MORTALITY IN MEN AND WOMEN

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. A. Boytsov

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available Aim. To study gender and age characteristics of incidence rate, mortality and lethality in acute coronary heart disease (ACHD.Material and Methods. Analysis of the ACHD (ICD-10 codes: I21.0-I22.9, I20.0, I24 morbidity, mortality and lethality, depending on sex and age was performed in the population (n=285 736; 46% men of several city administrative districts of Voronezh, Ryazan and Khanty-Mansiysk. Morbidity, mortality and lethality were calculated on the basis of medical documentation as well as cases identified by the study protocol.Results. The ACHD morbidity and mortality in men were 1.99 and 1.79 times higher (p<0,001, respectively, than these in women. The studied parameters increase with age, reaching a maximum in 50-59 y.o., have a plateau in 60-79 y.o. and then they decrease. Morbidity and mortality in women increase with age, but reach a maximum in 70-79 y.o., being comparable with the male level, and then exceed it in ≥80 y.o. Age curve of lethality in men has J-alike shape with minimum in patients of 50-79 y.o. Women have a line age curve with minimum in patients of <50 y.o.Conclusion. The population of ACHD patients should be considered according to both the sex and age: <50, 50-79 and ≥80 y.o. Every of these population group has special epidemiological characteristics.

  6. Incidence rate of prostate cancer in men treated for erectile dysfunction with phosphodiesterase type 5 inhibitors: retrospective analysis

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Anthony H Chavez; K Scott Coffield; M Hasan Rajab; Chanhee Jo

    2013-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to determine the incidence rate of prostate cancer among men with erectile dysfunction (ED) treated with phosphodiesterase type 5 inhibitors (PDE-5i) over a 7-year period vs.men with ED of the same age and with similar risk factors who were not treated with PDE-5i.In a retrospective review of electronic medical records and billing databases between the years 2000 and 2006,men with ED between the ages of 50 and 69 years and no history of prostate cancer prior to 2000 were identified.These individuals were divided into two groups:2362 men who had treatment with PDE-5i,and 2612 men who did not have treatment.Demographic data in each group were compared.During the study period,97 (4.1%) men with ED treated with PDE-5i were diagnosed with prostate cancer compared with 258 (9.9%) men with ED in the non-treated group (P<00001).A higher percentage of African Americans were treated with PDE-5i vs.those who were not (10.5% vs.7.1%; P<0.0001).The PDE-5i group had lower documented diagnosis of elevated prostate-specific antigen (10.0% vs.13.1%; P=0.0008) and higher percentage of benign prostatic hyperplasia (38.4% vs.35.1%; P=0.0149).Men with ED treated with PDE-5i tended to have less chance (adjusted odds ratio:0.4; 95% confidence intervals:0.3-0.5; P<0.0001) of having prostate cancer.Our data suggest that men with ED treated with PDE-5i tended to have less of a chance of being diagnosed with prostate cancer.Further research is warranted.

  7. EARSS: European Antimicrobial Resistance Surveillance System; data from the Netherlands .Incidence and resistance rates for Streptococcus pneumoniae and Staphylococcus aureus

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Goettsch WG; Neeling AJ de; CIE; LIO

    2001-01-01

    In a porspective prevalence and incidence survey in The Netherlands in 1999 antimicrobial susceptibility data on invasive Streptococcus pneumoniae and Staphylococcus aureus infections were collected sithin the framework of European Antomicrobial Resistance Surveillance System (EARSS). The EARSS proj

  8. Delayed heart rate recovery after exercise as a risk factor of incident type 2 diabetes mellitus after adjusting for glycometabolic parameters in men.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, Tae Yang; Jee, Jae Hwan; Bae, Ji Cheol; Hong, Won-Jung; Jin, Sang-Man; Kim, Jae Hyeon; Lee, Moon-Kyu

    2016-10-15

    Some studies have reported that delayed heart rate recovery (HRR) after exercise is associated with incident type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM). This study aimed to investigate the longitudinal association of delayed HRR following a graded exercise treadmill test (GTX) with the development of T2DM including glucose-associated parameters as an adjusting factor in healthy Korean men. Analyses including fasting plasma glucose, HOMA-IR, HOMA-β, and HbA1c as confounding factors and known confounders were performed. HRR was calculated as peak heart rate minus heart rate after a 1-min rest (HRR 1). Cox proportional hazards model was used to quantify the independent association between HRR and incident T2DM. During 9082 person-years of follow-up between 2006 and 2012, there were 180 (10.1%) incident cases of T2DM. After adjustment for age, BMI, systolic BP, diastolic BP, smoking status, peak heart rate, peak oxygen uptake, TG, LDL-C, HDL-C, fasting plasma glucose, HOMA-IR, HOMA-β, and HbA1c, the hazard ratios (HRs) [95% confidence interval (CI)] of incident T2DM comparing the second and third tertiles to the first tertile of HRR 1 were 0.867 (0.609-1.235) and 0.624 (0.426-0.915), respectively (p for trend=0.017). As a continuous variable, in the fully-adjusted model, the HR (95% CI) of incident T2DM associated with each 1 beat increase in HRR 1 was 0.980 (0.960-1.000) (p=0.048). This study demonstrated that delayed HRR after exercise predicts incident T2DM in men, even after adjusting for fasting glucose, HOMA-IR, HOMA-β, and HbA1c. However, only HRR 1 had clinical significance. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  9. Statistical, spectral and non-linear analysis of the heart rate variability during wakefulness and sleep.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brando, Victoria; Castro-Zaballa, Santiago; Falconi, Atilio; Torterolo, Pablo; Migliaro, Eduardo R

    2014-03-01

    As a first step in a program designed to study the central control of the heart rate variability (HRV) during sleep, we conducted polysomnographic and electrocardiogram recordings on chronically-prepared cats during semi- restricted conditions. We found that the tachogram, i.e. the pattern of heart beat intervals (RR intervals) was deeply modified on passing from alert wakefulness through quiet wakefulness (QW) to sleep. While the tachogram showed a rhythmical pattern coupled with respiratory activity during non-REM sleep (NREM), it turned chaotic during REM sleep. Statistical analyses of the RR intervals showed that the mean duration increased during sleep. HRV measured by the standard deviation of normal RR intervals (SDNN) and by the square root of the mean squared difference of successive intervals (rMSSD) were larger during REM and NREM sleep than during QW. SD-1 (a marker of short- term variability) and SD-2 (a marker of long-term variability) measured by means of Poincaré plots increased during both REM and NREM sleep compared to QW. Furthermore, in the spectral analysis of RR intervals, the band of high frequency (HF) was larger in NREM and REM sleep in comparison to QW, whereas the band of low frequency (LF) was larger only during REM sleep in comparison to QW. The LF/HF ratio was larger during QW compared either with REM or NREM sleep. Finally, sample entropy analysis used as a measure of complexity, was higher during NREM in comparison to REM sleep. In conclusion, HRV parameters, including complexity, are deeply modified across behavioral states.

  10. Trends in incidence rate, health care consumption, and costs for patients admitted with a humeral fracture in The Netherlands between 1986 and 2012

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    K.C. Mahabier (Kiran); D. den Hartog (Dennis); M.J.M. Panneman (Martien); J.R. van Veldhuizen (Joyce); S. Polinder (Suzanne); M.H.J. Verhofstad (Michiel); E.M.M. van Lieshout (Esther)

    2015-01-01

    textabstractIntroduction: This study aimed to examine long-term population-based trends in the incidence rate of patients with a humeral fracture admitted to a hospital in the Netherlands from 1986 to 2012 and to give a detailed overview of the health care consumption and productivity loss with asso

  11. Incidence rates and management of urinary tract infections among children in Dutch general practice: results from a nation-wide registration study.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kwok, W.Y.; Kwaadsteniet, M.C. de; Harmsen, M.; Suijlekom-Smit, L.W. van; Schellevis, F.G.; Wouden, J.C. van der

    2006-01-01

    BACKGROUND: We aimed to investigate incidence rates of urinary tract infections in Dutch general practice and their association with gender, season and urbanisation level, and to analyse prescription and referral in case of urinary tract infections. METHOD: During one calendar year, 195 general prac

  12. Incidence rates and management of urinary tract infections among children in Dutch general practice: results from a nation-wide registration study.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kwok, W.Y.; Kwaadsteniet, M.C.E. de; Harmsen, M.; Suijlekom-Smit, L.W.A. van; Schellevis, F.G.; Wouden, J.C. van der

    2006-01-01

    Background: We aimed to investigate incidence rates of urinary tract infections in Dutch general practice and their association with gender, season and urbanisation level, and to analyse prescription and referral in case of urinary tract infections. Method: During one calendar year, 195 general prac

  13. Incidence rates and management of urinary tract infections among children in Dutch general practice: results from a nation-wide registration study.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    W.Y. Kwok (Wing-Yee); M.C. Kwaadsteniet (Marjolein); M. Harmsen (Mirjam); L.W.A. van Suijlekom-Smit (Lisette); F.G. Schellevis (François); J.C. van der Wouden (Hans)

    2006-01-01

    textabstractBACKGROUND: We aimed to investigate incidence rates of urinary tract infections in Dutch general practice and their association with gender, season and urbanisation level, and to analyse prescription and referral in case of urinary tract infections. METHOD: During one calendar year, 195

  14. Time Trends over 16 Years in Incidence-Rates of Autism Spectrum Disorders across the Lifespan Based on Nationwide Danish Register Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jensen, Christina Mohr; Steinhausen, Hans-Christoph; Lauritsen, Marlene Briciet

    2014-01-01

    This study investigated time trends and associated factors of incidence rates of diagnosed autism spectrum disorders (ASD) across the lifespan from 1995 to 2010, using data from the Danish Psychiatric Central Research Registry. First time diagnosis of childhood autism, atypical autism, Asperger's syndrome, or pervasive developmental…

  15. Prevalence, incidence rates and persistence of contact allergy and allergic contact dermatitis in The Odense Adolescence Cohort Study: a 15-year follow-up

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mortz, C. G.; Bindslev-Jensen, C.; Andersen, Klaus Ejner

    2013-01-01

    BACKGROUND: A cohort of 1501 unselected 8th grade schoolchildren was established 15 years ago with the aim to follow the course of contact allergy and allergic contact dermatitis (ACD) from school age into adult life. To date no studies have evaluated incidence rates and persistence of contact...

  16. Nonlinear response of canopy developmental rate to temperature in temperate and boreal forest in the Northern Hemisphere

    Science.gov (United States)

    Park, H.; Ho, C. H.; Jeong, S. J.

    2015-12-01

    Understanding the changes in vegetation annual cycle is crucial for improving our knowledge about various interactions between the terrestrial ecosystem and climate. However, our understanding about the vegetation seasonality is mostly confined to some phenological timings such as spring emergence and fall senescence. This study assessed large-scale variations in the vegetation green-up rate (VGrate), which indicates the rate of canopy development from winter dormancy to summer maturity, and its relationship over Northern Hemisphere temperate and boreal forests for 1982-2011. VGrate and local temperature changes show a positive correlation over the region of interest, and it indicates that a temperature increase during green-up period leads to faster canopy development. The responses of VGrate tend to be more sensitive to positive temperature anomalies than negative anomalies despite same magnitude of the temperature changes. These nonlinear responsiveness of VGrate to local temperature change is clearly observed in deciduous broadleaf forests over Eurasia compared to woodlands over North America. These results suggest that anomalous warming in green-up period would make canopy developments faster over wide temperate and boreal forest areas.

  17. Sex Differences in the Incidence of Skin and Skin-Related Diseases in Olmsted County, Minnesota, United States, and a Comparison With Other Rates Published Worldwide

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andersen, Louise K.; Davis, Mark D. P.

    2016-01-01

    Many skin and skin-related diseases affect the sexes unequally, with attendant implications for public health and resource allocation. To better evaluate the incidence of skin and skin-related diseases affecting males versus females, we reviewed published population-based epidemiology studies of skin disorders performed utilizing Rochester Epidemiology Project (REP) data. Females had a higher incidence of the following diseases: connective tissue diseases (scleroderma, morphea, dermatomyositis, primary Sjögren syndrome, systemic lupus erythematosus [not in all studies]), pityriasis rosea, herpes progenitalis, condyloma acuminatum, hidradenitis suppurativa, herpes zoster (except in children), erythromelalgia, venous stasis syndrome, and venous ulcers. Males had a higher incidence of psoriasis and psoriatic arthritis, basal cell carcinoma (exception, females aged ≤40 years), squamous cell carcinoma, and lentigo maligna. Incidence rates were equal in males and females for cutaneous malignant melanoma (exception, higher in females aged 18–39 years), lower-extremity cellulitis, cutaneous nontuberculous mycobacterial infection, Behçet disease, delusional infestation, alopecia areata, and bullous pemphigoid. Many of the population-based sex-specific incidence rates of skin and skin-related diseases derived from the Rochester Epidemiology Project are strikingly different from those estimated elsewhere. In general, females are more commonly affected by skin and skin-related diseases. The reasons for this imbalance remain to be determined and are likely multifactorial. PMID:27009931

  18. Are sociodemographic characteristics associated with spatial variation in the incidence of OHCA and bystander CPR rates? A population-based observational study in Victoria, Australia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Straney, Lahn D; Bray, Janet E; Beck, Ben; Bernard, Stephen; Lijovic, Marijana; Smith, Karen

    2016-11-07

    Rates of out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA) and bystander cardiopulmonary resuscitation (CPR) have been shown to vary considerably in Victoria. We examined the extent to which this variation could be explained by the sociodemographic and population health characteristics of the region. Using the Victorian Ambulance Cardiac Arrest Registry, we extracted OHCA cases occurring between 2011 and 2013. We restricted the calculation of bystander CPR rates to those arrests that were witnessed by a bystander. To estimate the level of variation between Victorian local government areas (LGAs), we used a two-stage modelling approach using random-effects modelling. Between 2011 and 2013, there were 15 830 adult OHCA in Victoria. Incidence rates varied across the state between 41.9 to 104.0 cases/100 000 population. The proportion of the population over 65, socioeconomic status, smoking prevalence and education level were significant predictors of incidence in the multivariable model, explaining 93.9% of the variation in incidence among LGAs. Estimates of bystander CPR rates for bystander witnessed arrests varied from 62.7% to 73.2%. Only population density was a significant predictor of rates in a multivariable model, explaining 73% of the variation in the odds of receiving bystander CPR among LGAs. Our results show that the regional characteristics which underlie the variation seen in rates of bystander CPR may be region specific and may require study in smaller areas. However, characteristics associated with high incidence and low bystander CPR rates can be identified and will help to target regions and inform local interventions to increase bystander CPR rates. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/.

  19. Impact of depression mood disorder on the adverse drug reaction incidence rate of anticancer drugs in cancer patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhou, T; Duan, J J; Zhou, G P; Cai, J Y; Huang, Z H; Zeng, Y T; Xu, F

    2010-01-01

    The aim of this study was to explore the impact of depression mood disorder on the incidence of adverse drug reactions of anticancer drugs in cancer patients. The Hamilton Depression Scale 17 was used to evaluate the depression mood disorder level in 73 cancer patients before chemotherapy. Pharmacists monitored adverse drug reactions during the chemotherapy period. The relationship between depression mood disorder level and the incidence of adverse drug reactions was analysed. The frequency and extent of total adverse drug reactions were not related to depression mood disorder level. The frequency and extent of subjectively experienced adverse drug reactions such as anorexia, nausea and fatigue were related to depression mood disorder level. In conclusion, psychological support and intervention should be provided to cancer patients in order to improve patient adherence and cancer chemotherapy effectiveness, and to decrease the incidence of adverse drug reactions.

  20. HIV and Hepatitis B and C incidence rates in US correctional populations and high risk groups: a systematic review and meta-analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hook Edward W

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background High Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV prevalence and high risk behaviors have been well documented within United States (US correctional systems. However, uncertainty remains regarding the extent to which placing people in prison or jail increases their risk of HIV infection, and regarding which inmate populations experience an increased incidence of HIV. Describing these dynamics more clearly is essential to understanding how inmates and former detainees may be a source for further spread of HIV to the general US population. Methods The authors conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis of studies describing HIV incidence in US correctional facility residents and, for comparison, in high risk groups for HIV infection, such as non-incarcerated intravenous drug users (IVDU and men who have sex with men (MSM in the US. HIV incidence rates were further compared with Hepatitis B and Hepatitis C Virus rates in these same populations. Results Thirty-six predominantly prospective cohort studies were included. Across all infection outcomes, continuously incarcerated inmates and treatment recruited IVDU showed the lowest incidence, while MSM and street recruited IVDU showed the highest. HIV incidence was highest among inmates released and re-incarcerated. Possible sources of heterogeneity identified among HIV studies were risk population and race. Conclusions Although important literature gaps were found, current evidence suggests that policies and interventions for HIV prevention in correctional populations should prioritize curtailing risk of infection during the post-release period. Future research should evaluate HIV incidence rates in inmate populations, accounting for proportion of high risk sub-groups.

  1. Comparative trends in incident fracture rates for all long-term care and community-dwelling seniors in Ontario, Canada, 2002–2012

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kennedy, C. C.; Ioannidis, G.; Cameron, C.; Croxford, R.; Adachi, J. D.; Mursleen, S.; Jaglal, S.

    2016-01-01

    Summary In this population-based study, we compared incident fracture rates in long-term care (LTC) versus community seniors between 2002 and 2012. Hip fracture rates declined more rapidly in LTC than in the community. An excess burden of fractures occurred in LTC for hip, pelvis, and humerus fractures in men and hip fractures only in women. Introduction This study compares trends in incident fracture rates between long-term care (LTC) and community-dwelling seniors ≥65 years, 2002–2012. Methods This is a population-based cohort study using administrative data. Measurements were age/sex-adjusted incident fracture rates and rate ratios (RR) and annual percent change (APC). Results Over 11 years, hip fracture rates had a marked decline occurring more rapidly in LTC (APC, −3.49 (95% confidence interval (CI), −3.97, −3.01)) compared with the community (APC, −2.93 (95 % CI, −3.28, −2.57); p< 0.05 for difference in slopes). Humerus and wrist fracture rates decreased; however, an opposite trend occurred for pelvis and spine fractures with rates increasing over time in both cohorts (all APCs, p <0.05). In 2012, incident hip fracture rates were higher in LTC than the community (RRs: women, 1.55 (95 % CI, 1.45, 1.67); men, 2.18 (95 % CI, 1.93, 2.47)). Higher rates of pelvis (RR, 1.48 (95 % CI, 1.22, 1.80)) and humerus (RR, 1.40 (95 % CI, 1.07, 1.84)) fractures were observed in LTC men, not women. In women, wrist (RR, 0.76 (95 % CI, 0.71, 0.81)) and spine (RR, 0.52 (95 % CI, 0.45, 0.61)) fracture rates were lower in LTC than the community; in men, spine (RR, 0.75 (95 % CI, 0.57, 0.98) but not wrist fracture (RR, 0.91 (95 % CI, 0.67, 1.23)) rates were significantly lower in LTC than the community. Conclusion Previous studies in the community have shown declining hip fracture rates over time, also demonstrated in our study but at a more rapid rate in LTC. Rates of humerus and wrist fractures also declined. An excess burden of fractures in LTC occurred for hip

  2. Typology and description of the endemic areas with a long-time biggest and smallest colorectal incidence rates in the Silesia voivodeship populations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Brunon Zemła

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available Background: The colorectal cancers (C18–C21, by ICD – X revision = RJG, it a big social-clinical problem. The high level differentiation (dependent of particular countries and regions within them; for example: Silesia voivodeship common for frequency of incidence. Therefore an attempt looking for an endemic area with a longtime biggest and smallest incidence rates in the smaller population scale, what a make easy fight against cancers. Materials and methods: In the years 1999–2009 20682 persons were diagnosed for RJG. Basing on the data (as above and demographic data, the different type of rates were calculated. All statistic procedures were in detail described anywhere [4–6]. Results: In the years 1999– 2009, in Silesia voivodeship, 20 682 cases of RJG were diagnosed, i.e. 53.5% among males and 46.5% among females. Age-adjusted rate for the whole Silesia voivodeship is 31.4 per 100 thousands to men and 19.5/100 thousands to women. In comparison between two extremely periods (1999–2009 : 2006–2009, age – adjusted incidence rates among men increased about 2.9%, and among women decreased about 6.5%. The distribution of age-standardized colorectal cancer rates within Silesia voivodeship, in the years 1999–2009, taking into account 36 counties – was very unequal so among males and at the same among females. But the most important epidemiological problem was the endemic areas with significantly biggest incidence rates among males: towns on the law of county: Częstochowa, Katowice, Bielsko-Biała and counties: mikołowski and wodzisławski; among females the endemic areas of this type were Bielsko-Biała town and his county. Conclusions: 1 Within Silesia voivodeship were revealed the endemic areas at statistically significantly high or low (in a long-time then the overall incidence rate for the colorectal cancer among men and women. 2 The endemic areas with the biggest incidence colorectal rates (fig. 1D and 2D, it indications to

  3. Epidemiological study of paediatric germ cell tumours revealed the incidence and distribution that was expected, but a low mortality rate

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Evers, Madeline; Rechnitzer, Catherine; Graem, Niels

    2017-01-01

    AIM: Germ cell tumours (GCTs) are a rare heterogeneous tumour group derived from primordial germ cells, which can be benign or malignant and occur in the gonads or extragonadally. This study mapped the paediatric GCTs in Denmark from 1984-2013 to study the incidence and outcome. METHODS: We ident...

  4. Global incidences of out-of-hospital cardiac arrest and survival rates: Systematic review of 67 prospective studies

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    J. Berdowski; R.A. Berg; J.G.P. Tijssen; R.W. Koster

    2010-01-01

    Aim: The aim of this investigation was to estimate and contrast the global incidence and outcome of out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA) to provide a better understanding of the variability in risk and survival of OHCA. Methods: We conducted a review of published English-language articles about inc

  5. Associations of Census-Tract Poverty with Subsite-Specific Colorectal Cancer Incidence Rates and Stage of Disease at Diagnosis in the United States

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kevin A. Henry

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Background. It remains unclear whether neighborhood poverty contributes to differences in subsite-specific colorectal cancer (CRC incidence. We examined associations between census-tract poverty and CRC incidence and stage by anatomic subsite and race/ethnicity. Methods. CRC cases diagnosed between 2005 and 2009 from 15 states and Los Angeles County (N=278,097 were assigned to 1 of 4 groups based on census-tract poverty. Age-adjusted and stage-specific CRC incidence rates (IRs and incidence rate ratios (IRRs were calculated. Analyses were stratified by subsite (proximal, distal, and rectum, sex, race/ethnicity, and poverty. Results. Compared to the lowest poverty areas, CRC IRs were significantly higher in the most impoverished areas for men (IRR = 1.14 95% CI 1.12–1.17 and women (IRR = 1.06 95% CI 1.05–1.08. Rate differences between high and low poverty were strongest for distal colon (male IRR = 1.24 95% CI 1.20–1.28; female IRR = 1.14 95% CI 1.10–1.18 and weakest for proximal colon. These rate differences were significant for non-Hispanic whites and blacks and for Asian/Pacific Islander men. Inverse associations between poverty and IRs of all CRC and proximal colon were found for Hispanics. Late-to-early stage CRC IRRs increased monotonically with increasing poverty for all race/ethnicity groups. Conclusion. There are differences in subsite-specific CRC incidence by poverty, but associations were moderated by race/ethnicity.

  6. Incidence rates and deaths of tuberculosis in HIV-negative patients in the United States and Germany as analyzed by new predictive model for infection.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ren, Yudong; Ding, Fan; Suo, Siqingaowa; Bu, Ri-e; Zarlenga, Dante S; Ren, Xiaofeng

    2012-01-01

    Incidence and mortality due to tuberculosis (TB) have been decreasing worldwide. Given that TB is a cosmopolitan disease, proper surveillance and evaluation are critical for controlling dissemination. Herein, mathematical modeling was performed in order to: 1) demonstrate a correlation between the incidence of TB in HIV-free patients in the US and Germany, and their corresponding mortality rates; 2) show the utility of the newly developed D-R algorithm for analyzing and predicting the incidence of TB in both countries; and 3) inform us on population death rates due to TB in HIV-negative patients. Using data published by the World Health Organization between 1990 and 2009, the relationship between incidence and mortality that could not be ascribed to HIV infection was evaluated. Using linear, quadratic and cubic curves, we found that a cubic function provided the best fit with the data in both the US (Y = 2.3588+2.2459X+61.1639X(2)-60.104X(3)) and Germany (Y = 1.9271+9.4967X+18.3824X(2)-10.350X(3)) where the correlation coefficient (R) between incidence and mortality was 0.995 and 0.993, respectively. Second, we demonstrated that fitted curves using the D-R model were equal to or better than those generated using the GM(1,1) algorithm as exemplified in the relative values for Sum of Squares of Error, Relative Standard Error, Mean Absolute Deviation, Average Relative Error, and Mean Absolute Percentage Error. Finally, future trends using both the D-R and the classic GM(1,1) models predicted a continued decline in infection and mortality rates of TB in HIV-negative patients rates extending to 2015 assuming no changes to diagnosis or treatment regimens are enacted.

  7. The incidence rate of corpus uteri cancer among females in Saudi Arabia: an observational descriptive epidemiological analysis of data from Saudi Cancer Registry 2001–2008

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alghamdi IG

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Ibrahim G Alghamdi,1 Issam I Hussain,1 Mohamed S Alghamdi,2 Mohamed A El-Sheemy1,3 1University of Lincoln, Brayford Pool, Lincoln, UK; 2Ministry of Health, General Directorate of Health Affairs, Al-Baha, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia; 3Research and Development, Lincoln Hospital, Lincolnshire Hospitals NHS Trust, Lincoln, UK Background: The present study reviews the epidemiological data on corpus uteri cancer among Saudi women, including its frequency, crude incidence rate, and age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR, adjusted by region and year of diagnosis. Methods: A retrospective, descriptive epidemiological analysis was conducted of all the corpus uteri cancer cases recorded in the Saudi Cancer Registry between January 2001 and December 2008. The statistical analyses were performed using descriptive statistics, analysis of variance, Poisson regression, and a simple linear model. Results: A total of 1,060 corpus uteri cancer cases were included. Women aged 60–74 years of age were most affected by the disease. The region of Riyadh in Saudi Arabia had the highest overall ASIR, at 4.4 cases per 100,000 female patients, followed by the eastern region, at 4.2, and Makkah, at 3.7. Jazan, Najran, and Qassim had the lowest average ASIRs, ranging from 0.8 to 1.4. A Poisson regression model using Jazan as the reference revealed that the corpus uteri cancer incidence rate ratio was significantly higher for the regions of Makkah, at 16.5 times (95% confidence interval [CI]: 8.0–23.0, followed by Riyadh, at 16.0 times (95% CI: 9.0–22.0, and the eastern region, at 9.9 times (95% CI: 5.6–17.6. The northern region experienced the highest changes in ASIRs of corpus uteri cancer among female Saudi patients between 2001 and 2008. Conclusion: There was a slight increase in the crude incidence rates and ASIRs for corpus uteri cancer in Saudi Arabia between 2001 and 2008. Older Saudi women were most affected by the disease. Riyadh, the eastern region, and Makkah

  8. Anal human papillomavirus in HIV-uninfected men who have sex with men: incidence and clearance rates, duration of infection, and risk factors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Donà, M G; Vescio, M F; Latini, A; Giglio, A; Moretto, D; Frasca, M; Benevolo, M; Rollo, F; Colafigli, M; Cristaudo, A; Giuliani, M

    2016-12-01

    Little is known regarding the natural history of anal human papillomavirus (HPV) infection. We aimed to evaluate incidence and clearance rates, their risk factors, and duration of anal HPV infection in HIV-uninfected men who have sex with men (MSM). A longitudinal study was conducted. Anal samples were analysed using the Linear Array HPV Genotyping test. Incidence and clearance rates, and corresponding risk factors, were estimated using a two-state Markov model. Overall, 155 MSM (median age 33.4 years) attending the largest sexually transmitted infection (STI) centre in Rome, Italy, were followed for a median of 12.2 months (Q1-Q3: 7.0-18.1). Incidence and clearance rates for any HPV were 85.6 (95% CI: 58.4-125.4) and 35.6 (95% CI: 24.7-51.5) × 1000 person-months, respectively; the median duration of infection was 9.4 months (Q1-Q3: 7.5-12.1). Receptive anal sex emerged as the only risk factor for the acquisition of any HPV (Hazard Ratio, HR = 2.65, 95% CI: 1.16-6.06). The incidence rates for carcinogenic and non-carcinogenic types were 42.3 (95% CI: 29.2-61.4) and 29.2 (95% CI: 19.5-43.7) × 1000 person-months, respectively (p = 0.13); their clearance rates were 62.9 (95% CI: 45.1-87.7) and 65.7 (95% CI: 47.4-91.0) × 1000 person-months, respectively (p = 0.83). HPV16 showed the lowest clearance rate among carcinogenic types (59.7 × 1000 person-months), and a duration of infection of 16.8 months. In conclusion, a higher incidence rate was observed for carcinogenic compared to non-carcinogenic HPV types, although the difference was not significant. HPV16 emerged as the type with the longest duration of infection and the lowest clearance rate among carcinogenic types.

  9. Increased incidence rate of trauma- and stressor-related disorders in Denmark following the Breivik attacks in Norway

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Bertel Teilfeldt; Dinesen, Peter T; Østergaard, Søren D

    2017-01-01

    BACKGROUND: On July 22, 2011, Anders Breivik killed 77 adults and children in Norway. Having recently documented increases in the incidence of trauma- and stressor-related disorders in Denmark after the 9/11 attacks, we hypothesized that the Breivik attacks-due to their geographical proximity-wou...... previous findings on extra-national consequences of terrorism and indicates that geographical proximity and media coverage may exacerbate effects....

  10. Magnetic resonance angiography and CT angiography of persistent primitive olfactory artery: Incidence and association rate with aneurysm in Korea

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kwon, Bo Ra; Yeo, Soo Hyun; Chang, Hyuk Won; Kim, Mi Jeong; Lee, Sung Moon; Kim, Ealmaan; Kim, Mi Kyung; Cho, Ho Chan; Kim, Hye Soon [Keimyung University College of Medicine, Daegu (Korea, Republic of)

    2012-06-15

    Japanese data indicates an incidence of persistent primitive olfactory artery (PPOA) of 0.14%. We studied the incidence of PPOA and associated cerebral vascular variation or anomalies in Korea. We retrospectively reviewed cranial magnetic resonance angiography (MRA) and computed tomography angiography (CTA) images of a total of 9841 patients of our institution. The diagnostic criterion of PPOA is extreme anterioinferior course of the proximal anterior cerebral artery, with a hairpin turn of the lateral projection. We found 29 cases (0.29%) with PPOA. The PPOA location was on the left in 19 cases, bilateral in 3 cases, and on the right in 7 cases. An aneurysm was found at the hairpin turn in 2 patients. There were aneurysms in other sites in 3 cases. There were hypoplasia of anterior cerebral artery in 3 cases, and fenestration of intracranial artery in 1 case. In Korean populations, the incidence of PPOA found in MRA and CTA was twice as high as that shown in the previous Japanese data. Within Korea, left side laterality is more common than right side or bilalterality. Aneurysmal dilatations at the hairpin turning point and aneurysms at other sites were found, and other vascular variations were observed in several cases.

  11. Cholestasis sepsis at neonatology ward and neonatal Intensive Care Unit Cipto Mangunkusumo Hospital 2007 : incidence, mortality rate and associated risk factors

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kadim S. Bachtiar

    2008-06-01

    Full Text Available Cholestatic jaundice represents serious pathological condition. Septic-cholestasis is a kind of hepato-cellular cholestasis that occured during or after sepsis caused by biliary flow obstruction. This is a cohort study from February to June 2007 on neonatal sepsis patients at Neonatology ward Department of Child Health Faculty of Medicine University of Indonesia-Cipto Mangunkusumo General National Hospital. Aim of this study is to find out the incidence of intrahepatic cholestasis in neonatal sepsis, associated risk factors, and mortality rate in neonatal cholestasis-sepsis. From 138 neonatal sepsis patients, the incidence of intrahepatic cholestasis is 65.9%. None of the risk factors tested in this study showed statistically significant result. Mortality rate of neonatal cholestasis-sepsis is 52.8%. (Med J Indones 2008; 17: 107-13Keywords: cholestasis intrahepatic, neonatal sepsis, cholestasis sepsis, conjugated hyperbilirubinemia

  12. Tingkat Insidensi Malaria di Wilayah Pemanasan Kelambu Berinsektisida Tahan Lama dan Wilayah Kontrol (MALARIA INCIDENCE RATE OF HEAT ASSISTED REGENERATION LONG LASTING INSECTICIDAL NETS AREA AND CONTROL

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Etih Sudarnika

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available Long lasting insecticidal nets (LLIN is one effective way to prevent malaria. Permethrin treatedLLIN is one type of LLIN which is recommended by WHO. Several studies have shown that these types ofLLIN requiring heat assisted regeneration after washing to enhance the biological activity of insecticidethat contained in the LLIN fibers. This study aimed to compare the incidence rates of malaria in childrenunder five years old who live in the intervention area (where the heat assisted regeneration on LLIN afterwashing was applied and control area (where the heat assisted regeneration on LLIN after washing wasnot applied. Data of malaria cases was collected from laboratory log book at all health centers in BangkaDistrict, in the period of June June 2007 until July 2008. Data were analyzed with Poisson regressionmodels. The results showed that the incidence rate of malaria in children under five years old was notsignificantly different between the treatment and control areas.

  13. Incidence of Second Malignancies in Prostate Cancer Patients Treated With Low-Dose-Rate Brachytherapy and Radical Prostatectomy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hamilton, Sarah Nicole; Tyldesley, Scott [Department of Surgery, Faculty of Medicine, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, British Columbia (Canada); Department of Radiation Oncology, British Columbia Cancer Agency–Vancouver Centre, Vancouver, British Columbia (Canada); Hamm, Jeremy [Department of Population Oncology, British Columbia Cancer Agency–Vancouver Centre, Vancouver, British Columbia (Canada); Jiang, Wei Ning [Faculty of Medicine, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, British Columbia (Canada); Keyes, Mira; Pickles, Tom [Department of Surgery, Faculty of Medicine, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, British Columbia (Canada); Department of Radiation Oncology, British Columbia Cancer Agency–Vancouver Centre, Vancouver, British Columbia (Canada); Lapointe, Vince [Department of Medical Physics, British Columbia Cancer Agency–Vancouver Centre, Vancouver, British Columbia (Canada); Kahnamelli, Adam [Department of Radiation Oncology, British Columbia Cancer Agency–Vancouver Centre, Vancouver, British Columbia (Canada); McKenzie, Michael [Department of Surgery, Faculty of Medicine, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, British Columbia (Canada); Department of Radiation Oncology, British Columbia Cancer Agency–Vancouver Centre, Vancouver, British Columbia (Canada); Miller, Stacy [Department of Radiation Oncology, British Columbia Cancer Agency–Centre for the North, Prince George, British Columbia (Canada); Morris, W. James, E-mail: jmorris@bccancer.bc.ca [Department of Surgery, Faculty of Medicine, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, British Columbia (Canada); Department of Radiation Oncology, British Columbia Cancer Agency–Vancouver Centre, Vancouver, British Columbia (Canada)

    2014-11-15

    Purpose: To compare the second malignancy incidence in prostate cancer patients treated with brachytherapy (BT) relative to radical prostatectomy (RP) and to compare both groups with the cancer incidence in the general population. Methods and Materials: From 1998 to 2010, 2418 patients were treated with Iodine 125 prostate BT monotherapy at the British Columbia Cancer Agency, and 4015 referred patients were treated with RP. Cancer incidence was compared with the age-matched general population using standardized incidence ratios (SIRs). Pelvic malignancies included invasive and noninvasive bladder cancer and rectal cancer. Cox multivariable analysis was performed with adjustment for covariates to determine whether treatment (RP vs BT) was associated with second malignancy risk. Results: The median age at BT was 66 years and at RP 62 years. The SIR comparing BT patients with the general population was 1.06 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.91-1.22) for second malignancy and was 1.53 (95% CI 1.12-2.04) for pelvic malignancy. The SIR comparing RP patients with the general population was 1.11 (95% CI 0.98-1.25) for second malignancy and was 1.11 (95% CI 0.82-1.48) for pelvic malignancy. On multivariable analysis, older age (hazard ratio [HR] 1.05) and smoking (HR 1.65) were associated with increased second malignancy risk (P<.0001). Radical prostatectomy was not associated with a decreased second malignancy risk relative to BT (HR 0.90, P=.43), even when excluding patients who received postprostatectomy external beam radiation therapy (HR 1.13, P=.25). Older age (HR 1.09, P<.0001) and smoking (HR 2.17, P=.0009) were associated with increased pelvic malignancy risk. Radical prostatectomy was not associated with a decreased pelvic malignancy risk compared with BT (HR 0.57, P=.082), even when excluding postprostatectomy external beam radiation therapy patients (HR 0.87, P=.56). Conclusions: After adjustment for covariates, BT patients did not have an increased second

  14. Exploring disparities in incidence and mortality rates of breast and gynecologic cancers according to the Human Development Index in the Pan-American region.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martínez-Mesa, J; Werutsky, G; Michiels, S; Pereira Filho, C A S; Dueñas-González, A; Zarba, J J; Mano, M; Villarreal-Garza, C; Gómez, H; Barrios, C H

    2017-08-01

    To evaluate whether a country's Human Development Index (HDI) can help explain the differences in the country's breast cancer and gynecological cancer incidence and mortality rates in the Pan-American region. Ecological analysis. Pan-American region countries with publicly available data both in GLOBOCAN 2012 and the United Nations Development Report 2012 were included (n = 28). Incidence and mortality rates age-standardized per 100,000 were natural log-transformed for breast cancer, ovarian cancer, corpus uteri cancer, and cervical cancer. The mortality-to-incidence ratio (MIR) was calculated for each site. Pearson's correlation test and a simple linear regression were performed. The HDI showed a positive correlation with breast cancer and ovarian cancer incidence and mortality rates, respectively, and a negative correlation with cervical cancer incidence and mortality rates. The HDI and corpus uteri cancer showed no association. MIR and the HDI showed a negative correlation for all tumor types except ovarian cancer. An increment in 1 HDI unit leads to changes in cancer rates: in breast cancer incidence β = 4.03 (95% confidence interval [CI] 2.61; 5.45) P < 0.001, breast cancer mortality β = 1.76 (95% CI 0.32; 3.21) P = 0.019, and breast cancer-MIR β = -0.705 (95% CI 0.704; 0.706) P < 0.001; in cervical cancer incidence β = -3.28 (95% CI -4.78; -1.78) P < 0.001, cervical cancer mortality β = -4.63 (95% CI -6.10; -3.17) P < 0.001, and cervical cancer-MIR β = -1.35 (95% CI -1.83; -0.87) P < 0.001; in ovarian cancer incidence β = 3.26 (95% CI 1.78; 4.75) P < 0.001, ovarian cancer mortality β = 1.82 (95% CI 0.44; 3.20) P = 0.012, and ovarian cancer-MIR β = 5.10 (95% CI 3.22; 6.97) P < 0.001; in corpus uteri cancer incidence β = 2.37 (95% CI -0.33; 5.06) P = 0.83, corpus uteri cancer mortality β = 0.68 (95% CI -2.68; 2.82) P = 0.96, and corpus uteri cancer-MIR β = -2.30 (95% CI -3.19; -1.40) P < 0.001. A

  15. Nonlinear Acoustics of Bounded Solid-Reflection and Refraction of Second-Order Bulk Waves(Ⅱ)——SV- or SH- Wave Incidence

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    钱祖文

    1994-01-01

    In the case of SV- or SH-wave oblique incidence,the reflection and refraction of the second-order bulk waves resulting from a plane boundary between two solid media are investigated and the mathematical expressions of them are given.It is shown that an SH-wave incidence is absolutely necessary to an overall knowledge of the relationship between the TOEs for isotropic solid.The importance of both contributions of the nonaccumulation waves and the effects of the boundary surface are indicated by numerical computation.

  16. Role of solar UVB irradiance and smoking in cancer as inferred from cancer incidence rates by occupation in Nordic countries.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grant, William B

    2012-04-01

    A large body of evidence indicates that solar ultraviolet-B (UVB) irradiance and vitamin D reduce the risk of incidence and death for many types of cancer. However, most of that evidence comes from midlatitude regions, where solar UVB doses are generally high in summer. Data on cancer standardized incidence ratios (SIRs) by sex and 54 occupation categories based on 1.4 million male and 1.36 million female cancer cases for 1961-2005 in the five Nordic countries provide the basis for an ecological study of the role of solar UVB in the risk of many types of cancer at high latitudes. Lip cancer SIRs less lung cancer SIRs for men was the best index of solar UVB dose, which was weakly inversely correlated with both melanoma and nonmelanoma skin cancer (NMSC) SIRs. Lung cancer SIRs were used as the index of the effects of smoking. For men, the UVB index was significantly inversely correlated with 14 types of internal cancer-bladder, breast, colon, gallbladder, kidney, laryngeal, liver, lung, oral, pancreatic, pharyngeal, prostate, rectal and small intestine cancer. For women, the same UVB index was inversely correlated with bladder, breast and colon cancer. These results generally agree with findings from other studies. These results provide more support for the UVB-vitamin D-cancer hypothesis and suggest that widespread fear of chronic solar ultraviolet (UV) irradiance may be misplaced.

  17. Linear and nonlinear analysis of heart rate variability in healthy subjects and after acute myocardial infarction in patients

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V.C. Kunz

    2012-05-01

    Full Text Available The objectives of this study were to evaluate and compare the use of linear and nonlinear methods for analysis of heart rate variability (HRV in healthy subjects and in patients after acute myocardial infarction (AMI. Heart rate (HR was recorded for 15 min in the supine position in 10 patients with AMI taking β-blockers (aged 57 ± 9 years and in 11 healthy subjects (aged 53 ± 4 years. HRV was analyzed in the time domain (RMSSD and RMSM, the frequency domain using low- and high-frequency bands in normalized units (nu; LFnu and HFnu and the LF/HF ratio and approximate entropy (ApEn were determined. There was a correlation (P < 0.05 of RMSSD, RMSM, LFnu, HFnu, and the LF/HF ratio index with the ApEn of the AMI group on the 2nd (r = 0.87, 0.65, 0.72, 0.72, and 0.64 and 7th day (r = 0.88, 0.70, 0.69, 0.69, and 0.87 and of the healthy group (r = 0.63, 0.71, 0.63, 0.63, and 0.74, respectively. The median HRV indexes of the AMI group on the 2nd and 7th day differed from the healthy group (P < 0.05: RMSSD = 10.37, 19.95, 24.81; RMSM = 23.47, 31.96, 43.79; LFnu = 0.79, 0.79, 0.62; HFnu = 0.20, 0.20, 0.37; LF/HF ratio = 3.87, 3.94, 1.65; ApEn = 1.01, 1.24, 1.31, respectively. There was agreement between the methods, suggesting that these have the same power to evaluate autonomic modulation of HR in both AMI patients and healthy subjects. AMI contributed to a reduction in cardiac signal irregularity, higher sympathetic modulation and lower vagal modulation.

  18. Poor glycemic control impacts linear and non-linear dynamics of heart rate in DM type 2

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daniela Bassi

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available INTRODUCTION: It is well known that type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM produces cardiovascular autonomic neuropathy (CAN, which may affect the cardiac autonomic modulation. However, it is unclear whether the lack of glycemic control in T2DM without CAN could impact negatively on cardiac autonomic modulation. Objective: To evaluate the relationship between glycemic control and cardiac autonomic modulation in individuals with T2DM without CAN. Descriptive, prospective and cross sectional study.METHODS: Forty-nine patients with T2DM (51±7 years were divided into two groups according to glycosylated hemoglobin (HbA1c: G1≤7% and G2>7.0%. Resting heart rate (HR and RR interval (RRi were obtained and calculated by linear (Mean iRR; Mean HR; rMSSD; STD RR; LF; HF; LF/HF, TINN and RR Tri, and non-linear (SD1; SD2; DFα1; DFα2, Shannon entropy; ApEn; SampEn and CD methods of heart rate variability (HRV. Insulin, HOMA-IR, fasting glucose and HbA1c were obtained by blood tests.RESULTS: G2 (HbA1c≤7% showed lower values for the mean of iRR; STD RR; RR Tri, TINN, SD2, CD and higher mean HR when compared with G1 (HbA1c > 7%. Additionally, HbA1c correlated negatively with mean RRi (r=0.28, p=0.044; STD RR (r=0.33, p=0.017; RR Tri (r=-0.35, p=0.013, SD2 (r=-0.39, p=0.004 and positively with mean HR (r=0.28, p=0.045. Finally, fasting glucose correlated negatively with STD RR (r=-0.36, p=0.010; RR Tri (r=-0.36, p=0.010; TINN (r=-0.33, p=0.019 and SD2 (r=-0.42, p=0.002.CONCLUSION: We concluded that poor glycemic control is related to cardiac autonomic modulation indices in individuals with T2DM even if they do not present cardiovascular autonomic neuropathy.

  19. Heart rate' based training intensity and its impact on injury incidence amongst elite level professional soccer players.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Owen, Adam L; Forsyth, Jacky J; Wong, Del P; Dellal, Alexandre; Connelly, Sean; Chamari, Karim

    2014-12-24

    Elite level professional soccer players are suggested to have increased physical, technical, tactical and psychological capabilities when compared to their sub-elite counterparts. Ensuring these players remain at the elite level generally involves training many different bodily systems to a high intensity or level within a short duration. This study aimed to examine whether an increase in training volume at high intensity levels were related to injury incidence, or increased the odds of sustaining an injury. Training intensity was monitored through time spent in high- (T-HI) and very high- (T-VHI) intensity zones of 85-level players may be possible if greater focus is placed on the training intensity and volume over a period of time ensuring the potential reduction of fatigue or overuse injuries. In addition, it is important to understand the optimal training load at which adaptation occurs without raising the risk of injury.

  20. Heart rate-based training intensity and its impact on injury incidence among elite-level professional soccer players.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Owen, Adam L; Forsyth, Jacky J; Wong, Del P; Dellal, Alexandre; Connelly, Sean P; Chamari, Karim

    2015-06-01

    Elite-level professional soccer players are suggested to have increased physical, technical, tactical, and psychological capabilities when compared with their subelite counterparts. Ensuring these players remain at the elite level generally involves training many different bodily systems to a high intensity or level within a short duration. This study aimed to examine whether an increase in training volume at high-intensity levels was related to injury incidence, or increased the odds of sustaining an injury. Training intensity was monitored through time spent in high-intensity (T-HI) and very high-intensity (T-VHI) zones of 85-level professional players may be possible if greater focus is placed on the training intensity and volume over a period of time ensuring the potential reduction of fatigue or overuse injuries. In addition, it is important to understand the optimal training load at which adaptation occurs without raising the risk of injury.

  1. Application of a new hybrid model with seasonal auto-regressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) and nonlinear auto-regressive neural network (NARNN) in forecasting incidence cases of HFMD in Shenzhen, China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, Lijing; Zhou, Lingling; Tan, Li; Jiang, Hongbo; Wang, Ying; Wei, Sheng; Nie, Shaofa

    2014-01-01

    Outbreaks of hand-foot-mouth disease (HFMD) have been reported for many times in Asia during the last decades. This emerging disease has drawn worldwide attention and vigilance. Nowadays, the prevention and control of HFMD has become an imperative issue in China. Early detection and response will be helpful before it happening, using modern information technology during the epidemic. In this paper, a hybrid model combining seasonal auto-regressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model and nonlinear auto-regressive neural network (NARNN) is proposed to predict the expected incidence cases from December 2012 to May 2013, using the retrospective observations obtained from China Information System for Disease Control and Prevention from January 2008 to November 2012. The best-fitted hybrid model was combined with seasonal ARIMA [Formula: see text] and NARNN with 15 hidden units and 5 delays. The hybrid model makes the good forecasting performance and estimates the expected incidence cases from December 2012 to May 2013, which are respectively -965.03, -1879.58, 4138.26, 1858.17, 4061.86 and 6163.16 with an obviously increasing trend. The model proposed in this paper can predict the incidence trend of HFMD effectively, which could be helpful to policy makers. The usefulness of expected cases of HFMD perform not only in detecting outbreaks or providing probability statements, but also in providing decision makers with a probable trend of the variability of future observations that contains both historical and recent information.

  2. Incidence Rate and Epidemiological and Clinical Aspects of Kawasaki Disease in Children of Maghrebi Origin in the Province of Quebec, Canada, Compared to the Country of Origin

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Arbia Abir Gorrab MD

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available The incidence of Kawasaki disease in Maghreb countries is apparently low, unlike those living in the province of Quebec, Canada. This retrospective study compared Maghrebi children living in Quebec to the countries of origin, Morocco, Algeria, and Tunisia. The annualized incidence rate in Quebec (18.49/year/100 000 children under 5 years of age was 4 to 12 times higher than in Tunisia, Morocco, and Algeria (0.95, 4.52, and 3.15, respectively. The prevalence of incomplete diagnostic criteria was higher in Quebec at 39%, Morocco 43%, and Tunisia 39% compared to Algeria at 8%, with minimal delayed diagnosis (7% only in Quebec compared to 30%, 35%, and 62%, respectively (P < .001. The rate of coronary aneurysms was comparable however (11% in Quebec vs 4%, 10%, and 25%, in Tunisia, Morocco, and Algeria, respectively; P = .31. The higher incidence of Kawasaki disease in the Maghreb community in Quebec versus the countries of origin seems due to underdiagnosis, which represents a public health concern in those countries.

  3. Trends in Breast Cancer Incidence Rates by Age and Stage at Diagnosis in Gharbiah, Egypt, over 10 Years (1999–2008

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kelly A. Hirko

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Background. This study was undertaken to evaluate trends in breast cancer incidence in Egypt from 1999 to 2008 and to make projections for breast cancer occurrence for the years 2009–2015. Patients and Methods. We utilized joinpoint regression and average annual percent change (AAPC measures with 95% confidence intervals (CI to describe the trends in breast cancer incidence rates from the Gharbiah Cancer Registry by age and stage at diagnosis and to estimate expected breast cancer caseloads for 2009–2015. Results. From 1999 to 2008, the AAPC in breast cancer incidence rates in Gharbiah significantly increased among women 50 years and older and among localized tumors (AAPC %, 95% CI, 3.1% to 8.0%. Our results predict a significant increase in breast cancer caseloads from 2009 to 2015 among women aged 30–39 (AAPC %, 95% CI, 0.9% to 1.1% and among women aged 40–49 years (AAPC %, 95% CI, 1.0% to 2.6%. Conclusion. These results have important implications for allocating limited resources, managing treatment needs, and exploring the consequences of prior interventions and/or changing risk factors in Egypt and other developing countries at the same stages of demographic and health transitions.

  4. Incidence Rate and Epidemiological and Clinical Aspects of Kawasaki Disease in Children of Maghrebi Origin in the Province of Quebec, Canada, Compared to the Country of Origin.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gorrab, Arbia Abir; Fournier, Anne; Bouaziz, Asma Abed; Spigelblatt, Linda; Scuccimarri, Rosie; Mrabet, Ali; Dahdah, Nagib

    2016-01-01

    The incidence of Kawasaki disease in Maghreb countries is apparently low, unlike those living in the province of Quebec, Canada. This retrospective study compared Maghrebi children living in Quebec to the countries of origin, Morocco, Algeria, and Tunisia. The annualized incidence rate in Quebec (18.49/year/100 000 children under 5 years of age) was 4 to 12 times higher than in Tunisia, Morocco, and Algeria (0.95, 4.52, and 3.15, respectively). The prevalence of incomplete diagnostic criteria was higher in Quebec at 39%, Morocco 43%, and Tunisia 39% compared to Algeria at 8%, with minimal delayed diagnosis (7%) only in Quebec compared to 30%, 35%, and 62%, respectively (P disease in the Maghreb community in Quebec versus the countries of origin seems due to underdiagnosis, which represents a public health concern in those countries.

  5. Simple Estimation of Incident HIV Infection Rates in Notification Cohorts Based on Window Periods of Algorithms for Evaluation of Line-Immunoassay Result Patterns

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schüpbach, Jörg; Gebhardt, Martin D.; Scherrer, Alexandra U.; Bisset, Leslie R.; Niederhauser, Christoph; Regenass, Stephan; Yerly, Sabine; Aubert, Vincent; Suter, Franziska; Pfister, Stefan; Martinetti, Gladys; Andreutti, Corinne; Klimkait, Thomas; Brandenberger, Marcel; Günthard, Huldrych F.

    2013-01-01

    Background Tests for recent infections (TRIs) are important for HIV surveillance. We have shown that a patient's antibody pattern in a confirmatory line immunoassay (Inno-Lia) also yields information on time since infection. We have published algorithms which, with a certain sensitivity and specificity, distinguish between incident (algorithms like other TRIs, i.e., based on their windows, we now determined their window periods. Methods We classified Inno-Lia results of 527 treatment-naïve patients with HIV-1 infection algorithms. The time after which all infections were ruled older, i.e. the algorithm's window, was determined by linear regression of the proportion ruled incident in dependence of time since infection. Window-based incident infection rates (IIR) were determined utilizing the relationship ‘Prevalence  =  Incidence x Duration’ in four annual cohorts of HIV-1 notifications. Results were compared to performance-based IIR also derived from Inno-Lia results, but utilizing the relationship ‘incident  =  true incident + false incident’ and also to the IIR derived from the BED incidence assay. Results Window periods varied between 45.8 and 130.1 days and correlated well with the algorithms' diagnostic sensitivity (R2 = 0.962; Palgorithms, the mean window-based IIR among the 748 notifications of 2005/06 was 0.457 compared to 0.453 obtained for performance-based IIR with a model not correcting for selection bias. Evaluation of BED results using a window of 153 days yielded an IIR of 0.669. Window-based IIR and performance-based IIR increased by 22.4% and respectively 30.6% in 2008, while 2009 and 2010 showed a return to baseline for both methods. Conclusions IIR estimations by window- and performance-based evaluations of Inno-Lia algorithm results were similar and can be used together to assess IIR changes between annual HIV notification cohorts. PMID:23990968

  6. Modelling idiopathic Parkinson disease as a complex illness can inform incidence rate in healthy adults: the PR EDIGT score.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schlossmacher, Michael G; Tomlinson, Julianna J; Santos, Goncalo; Shutinoski, Bojan; Brown, Earl G; Manuel, Douglas; Mestre, Tiago

    2017-01-01

    Fifty-five years after the concept of dopamine replacement therapy was introduced, Parkinson disease (PD) remains an incurable neurological disorder. To date, no disease-modifying therapeutic has been approved. The inability to predict PD incidence risk in healthy adults is seen as a limitation in drug development, because by the time of clinical diagnosis ≥ 60% of dopamine neurons have been lost. We have designed an incidence prediction model founded on the concept that the pathogenesis of PD is similar to that of many disorders observed in ageing humans, i.e. a complex, multifactorial disease. Our model considers five factors to determine cumulative incidence rates for PD in healthy adults: (i) DNA variants that alter susceptibility (D), e.g. carrying a LRRK2 or GBA risk allele; (ii) Exposure history to select environmental factors including xenobiotics (E); (iii) Gene-environment interactions that initiate pathological tissue responses (I), e.g. a rise in ROS levels, misprocessing of amyloidogenic proteins (foremost, α-synuclein) and dysregulated inflammation; (iv) sex (or gender; G); and importantly, (v) time (T) encompassing ageing-related changes, latency of illness and propagation of disease. We propose that cumulative incidence rates for PD (PR ) can be calculated in healthy adults, using the formula: PR (%) = (E + D + I) × G × T. Here, we demonstrate six case scenarios leading to young-onset parkinsonism (n = 3) and late-onset PD (n = 3). Further development and validation of this prediction model and its scoring system promise to improve subject recruitment in future intervention trials. Such efforts will be aimed at disease prevention through targeted selection of healthy individuals with a higher prediction score for developing PD in the future and at disease modification in subjects that already manifest prodromal signs. © 2016 The Authors. European Journal of Neuroscience published by Federation of European Neuroscience Societies and

  7. Trends in overall opportunistic illnesses, Pneumocystis carinii pneumonia, cerebral toxoplasmosis andMycobacterium avium complex incidence rates over the 30 years of the HIV epidemic: a systematic review

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lara Coelho

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: The natural history of HIV infection has changed dramatically after the introduction of highly active antiretroviral therapy. Currently, opportunistic illnesses still represent a major cause of death and hospitalization in this population. In this study, we review the trends in opportunistic illnesses incidence rates and compare the results observed in high-income settings with that for low/middle-income settings, with special attention given to studies from Brazil. METHODS: We systematically searched Pubmed, Web of Science, Lilacs and Google scholar for publications on HIV associated opportunistic illness. Studies reporting rates based on person-time for all opportunistic illnesses and/or the three opportunistic infections of interest, namely,Pneumocystis carinii pneumonia, cerebral toxoplasmosis, and Mycobacterium avium complex were included. RESULTS: Significant reductions in the incidence rates were demonstrated for opportunistic illnesses overall and also for the specific opportunistic infections included in the present study, both in high and low/middle-income settings. Out of the 37 studies included in the present review, almost 70% were from high-income settings. All the studies conducted in low/middle-income settings were single center studies and four were from Brazil. We found no study from Brazil reporting annual incidence rates of opportunistic illnesses. CONCLUSIONS: Opportunistic illnesses remain an important public health problem. To better guide health policies in low/middle-income settings, multicenter cohort studies should be encouraged. Studies from Brazil are urgently needed to assess the current burden of opportunistic illnesses in our population and to support the planning of HIV/AIDS health care services organization.

  8. Improvement in in vitro fertilization rate, decrease in reactive oxygen species and spermatozoa death incidence in rams by dietary fish oil.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matini Behzad, A; Ebrahimi, B; Alizadeh, A R; Esmaeili, V; Dalman, A; Rashki, L; Shahverdi, A H

    2014-08-01

    Our aim was to evaluate the effects of fish oil feeding on sperm classical parameters, level of reactive oxygen spices (ROS), spermatozoa death incidence and in vitro fertilization (IVF) rate in rams. We randomly assigned nine rams, into two experimental groups (isoenergetic and isonitrogenous rations with constant level of vitamin E supplement): control (CTR; n = 5) and fish oil (FO; n = 4, 35 g/day/ram). Diets were fed for 70 days during the physiological breeding season. After a 21-day dietary adaptation period, semen was collected weekly from each ram by an artificial vagina. Sperm classical parameters were determined by the computer-assisted sperm analyzer system (CASA), and it was prepared for IVF process by swim-up technique. These evaluations were performed during the first and last weeks of sampling. Intracellular ROS level and spermatozoa death incidence were detected by flow cytometry on a weekly basis after adaptation. Data were analysed with SPSS 15. The volume, concentration (3.6 and 2.7 × 10(9) /ml) and sperm progressive motility (60 and 48%) were significantly improved in the FO group compared with the CTR (p < 0.05). A comparison of two-cell stage embryos following IVF in the two groups showed a significantly higher fertilization rate in the FO group (56%) compared with the CTR (49%). Superoxide anion (O2 (-) ) rate was significantly lower (p < 0.05) at the third week of sampling in the FO. Although the H2 O2 rate was numerically lower in the FO group compared with the CTR, this difference was not significant. In addition, apoptosis showed a significant difference in the third week of sampling (15 and 30% for FO and CTR, respectively; p < 0.05). Overall, adding fish oil to the ram diet not only improved sperm quality and IVF results, it also could reduce oxygen-free radicals and the incidence of spermatozoa death.

  9. 早产儿视网膜病变的发病率及防治%Incidence Rate and Prevention and Cure of Retinopathy of Prematurity

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    田丽敏; 闫安; 吴素英

    2016-01-01

    早产儿视网膜病变(ROP)是儿童致盲的主要原因之一,无论在发达国家或发展中国家,都普遍存在视网膜致盲问题。随着新生儿重症监护技术的改善和新生儿护理技术的提高,早产儿及低出生体重儿的生存率逐步提高,早产儿视网膜病变的发病率呈逐年上升趋势。为提早预防、降低ROP发病率、改善预后提供科学的依据,现对各国ROP的发病率及防治进行综述。%The retinopathy of prematurity is one of the major causes of occoecatio in children, no matter in the developed country or in the developing country, and the retinopathy of prematurity issue is common, with the improvement of neonatal intensive care technologies and neonatal nursing technologies, the survival rate of premature and low birth weight infants gradually increases, and the incidence rate of retinopathy of prematurity shows an increasing trend annually, the paper pro-vides a scientific basis for early prevention, reducing the incidence rate of ROP and improving the prognosis and summa-rizes the incidence rate of ROP and prevention and cure.

  10. FEEDING INCIDENCE, GROWTH AND SURVIVAL RATE IN THE EARLY STAGE OF THE RED-SPOTTED GROUPER, Epinephelus akaara, IN RELATION TO TANK COLOR

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eri Setiadi

    2006-12-01

    Full Text Available The red-spotted grouper, Epinephelus akaara, is one of marine fish species targeted for mariculture in Japan. The artificial mass seedling production of these species has been largely successful. However, the survival is still unstable. The effect of tank colors on the feeding incidence, feeding proportion, growth and survival rates in the early stage of the red-spotted grouper were examined. The results showed the feeding incidence, feeding proportion, growth, and survival rates at different tank colors were highly significantly different (P<0.001. Post hoc multiple comparisons based on Tukey’s test showed significant differences (P<0.05 regarding feeding incidence between yellow (70.45% compared to white (55.83%, black (48.42%, green (41.67%, blue (35.17%, and red (32.50%. The highest feeding proportion (number of rotifer in the stomach/larvae was found at yellow (5.62, followed by white (2.47, black (1.97, green (1.92, blue (1.71, and red (1.28. The specific growth rate showed significant differences (P<0.05 were found at yellow (2.14% and white (1.84% compared to black (1.46%, green (1.20%, blue (1.15%, and red (1.13%. The survival rate at yellow color (1.22% was the highest, followed by white (1.09%, black (0.79%, green (0.57%, blue (0.38%, and red (0.37%. Yellow was suitable as tank wall color for rearing of red-spotted grouper larvae.

  11. Retrospective observation on contribution and limitations of screening for breast cancer with mammography in Korea: detection rate of breast cancer and incidence rate of interval cancer of the breast

    OpenAIRE

    2016-01-01

    Background The purpose of this study was to determine the benefits and limitations of screening for breast cancer using mammography. Methods Descriptive design with follow-up was used in the study. Data from breast cancer screening and health insurance claim data were used. The study population consisted of all participants in breast cancer screening from 2009 to 2014. Crude detection rate, positive predictive value and sensitivity and specificity of breast cancer screening and, incidence rat...

  12. Incidence rate of symptomatic painless thyroiditis presenting with thyrotoxicosis in Denmark as evaluated by consecutive thyroid scintigraphies

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schwartz, Frederik; Bergmann, Natasha; Zerahn, Bo;

    2013-01-01

    Painless thyroiditis (PT) is a transient kind of thyrotoxicosis, with lack of uptake on a thyroid scintigraphy in a non-tender thyroid gland, elevated anti-TPO antibodies, no fever, no history of increased iodine intake, and a normal sedimentation rate. The prevalence of PT varies hugely in the l......Painless thyroiditis (PT) is a transient kind of thyrotoxicosis, with lack of uptake on a thyroid scintigraphy in a non-tender thyroid gland, elevated anti-TPO antibodies, no fever, no history of increased iodine intake, and a normal sedimentation rate. The prevalence of PT varies hugely...

  13. Extracting third order optical nonlinearities of Mn(III)-Phthalocyanine chloride using high repetition rate femtosecond pulses

    Science.gov (United States)

    Makhal, Krishnandu; Mathur, Paresh; Maurya, Sidharth; Goswami, Debabrata

    2017-02-01

    Third order nonlinearities of Mn(III)-Phthalocyanine chloride in dimethyl-sulphoxide under 50 fs pulses, operating at 94 MHz, by eliminating cumulative thermal effects have been investigated and reported by us. Modifications were done in data acquisition during Z-scan experiment, which included recording of time evolution waveform traces in an oscilloscope and not collection of Z versus transmission and utilization of a chopper of a suitable duty cycle. Time evolution traces were further processed analytically through MatLab® programming, which yielded Z-scan traces similar to what was obtained with single shot 50 fs pulse. We observed reverse saturable absorption at 800 nm owing to excited state absorption. We show that the nonlinear refractive index (γ) and nonlinear absorption coefficient (β) are over estimated almost 100 times, when MHz pulses are used compared to a situation, where thermo-optical nonlinearities are accounted. Illumination and dark periods are carefully set in a way, so that the sample is able to completely recover its initial temperature before arrival of the next pulse. Magnitudes of γ and β were found to be -(6.5-4.9) × 10-16 m2/W and (5.4-6.2) × 10-10 m/W under the MHz condition, whereas they were -(0.18-2.2) × 10-18 m2/W and (9.5-15) × 10-12 m/W under the thermally managed condition, respectively. To reveal the associated fast nonlinearity, femtosecond transient absorption experiment was performed, which inferred excited state absorption and ground state bleaching across the 450-780 nm region. Dynamics associated with these processes are reported along with fluorescence lifetime obtained through the TCSPC technique. Structure optimization using TDDFT calculations and HOMO-LUMO gaps with orbital pictures are also shown.

  14. Incidence of atrial fibrillation in relation to changing heart rate over time in hypertensive patients: the LIFE study

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Okin, Peter M; Wachtell, Kristian; Kjeldsen, Sverre E;

    2008-01-01

    Onset of atrial fibrillation (AF) has been linked to changes in autonomic tone, with increasing heart rate (HR) immediately before AF onset in some patients suggesting a possible role of acute increases in sympathetic activity in AF onset. Although losartan therapy and decreasing ECG left...

  15. Cost-Effectiveness of Different Cervical Screening Strategies in Islamic Republic of Iran: A Middle-Income Country with a Low Incidence Rate of Cervical Cancer.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Azin Nahvijou

    Full Text Available Invasive cervical cancer (ICC is the fourth most common cancer among women worldwide. Cervical screening programs have reduced the incidence and mortality rates of ICC. We studied the cost-effectiveness of different cervical screening strategies in the Islamic Republic of Iran, a Muslim country with a low incidence rate of ICC.We constructed an 11-state Markov model, in which the parameters included regression and progression probabilities, test characteristics, costs, and utilities; these were extracted from primary data and the literature. Our strategies included Pap smear screening and human papillomavirus (HPV DNA testing plus Pap smear triaging with different starting ages and screening intervals. Model outcomes included lifetime costs, life years gained, quality-adjusted life years (QALY, and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs. One-way sensitivity analysis was performed to examine the stability of the results.We found that the prevented mortalities for the 11 strategies compared with no screening varied from 26% to 64%. The most cost-effective strategy was HPV screening, starting at age 35 years and repeated every 10 years. The ICER of this strategy was $8,875 per QALY compared with no screening. We found that screening at 5-year intervals was also cost-effective based on GDP per capita in Iran.We recommend organized cervical screening with HPV DNA testing for women in Iran, beginning at age 35 and repeated every 10 or 5 years. The results of this study could be generalized to other countries with low incidence rates of cervical cancer.

  16. A validation of the Danish microbiology database (MiBa) and incidence rate of Actinotignum schaalii (Actinobaculum schaalii) bacteraemia in Denmark.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bank, S; Søby, K M; Kristensen, L H; Voldstedlund, M; Prag, J

    2015-12-01

    Actinotignum schaalii (former named Actinobaculum schaalii) can cause urinary tract infections (UTIs) and bacteraemia, mainly in the elderly. A. schaalii is difficult to identify with conventional biochemical tests, and it is often overlooked if the urine is only cultured in ambient air. The aim of this study was to validate data from the nationwide Danish microbiology database (MiBa) with data from the laboratory information system (LIS) at the local department of microbiology in Viborg-Herning, and to evaluate the incidence rate of bacteraemia caused by A. schaalii in Denmark by using data from the MiBa. All departments of microbiology in Denmark report data to the MiBa. All microbiological samples with A. schaalii in Denmark were extracted for a period of 5 years from the MiBa and from the local LISs. All data obtained from our local LIS were also found in the MiBa, except for data on real-time PCR, which were not registered, owing to missing ID codes in the MiBa. From 2010 to 2014, there was a significant increase in the incidence rate of blood cultures with A. schaalii, from 1.8 to 6.8 cases per million, which was probably due to coincident implementation of matrix-assisted laser desorption ionization time-of-flight mass spectrometry (MALDI-TOF MS) in routine diagnostics. We found that A. schaalii caused bacteraemia and UTIs mainly in the elderly. In conclusion, the MiBa can be a useful source of nationwide microbiological data in Denmark. Our results suggest that the incidence rate of A. schaalii as a cause of bacteraemia has been underestimated, and that culture of urine in CO2 can improve the detection of A. schaalii.

  17. 一类具时滞和非线性传染率的SIS传染病模型的Hopf分支%Hopf Bifurcation of a SIS Epidemic Model with Time Delay and Nonlinear incidence

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    童姗姗; 窦霁虹; 王佳颖

    2011-01-01

    研究了一类具恢复期时滞且发生率为非线性的SIS传染病模型,讨论了该系统地方病平衡点的稳定性。利用Hopf分支理论,以时间τ为参数给出了系统在地方病平衡点处产生Hopf分支的充分条件。%A class of an SIS epidemic mathematic model with constant recruitment,time delay and nonlinear incidence is studied,and its stability of endemic equilibrium is discussed.By applying the theorem of Hopf bifurcation,the sufficient conditions of the endemic equilibrium occurring Hopf bifurcation with delay as parameter is given.

  18. Intravitreal injection analysis at the Bascom Palmer Eye Institute: evaluation of clinical indications for the treatment and incidence rates of endophthalmitis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ludimila L Cavalcante

    2010-05-01

    Full Text Available Ludimila L Cavalcante, Milena L Cavalcante, Timothy G Murray, Michael M Vigoda, Yolanda Piña, Christina L Decatur, R Prince Davis, Lisa C Olmos, Amy C Schefler, Michael B Parrott, Kyle J Alliman, Harry W Flynn, Andrew A MoshfeghiBascom Palmer Eye Institute, Department of Ophthalmology, University of Miami Miller School of Medicine, Miami, FL, USAObjective: To report the incidence of endophthalmitis, in addition to its clinical and microbiological aspects, after intravitreal injection of vascular-targeting agents.Methods: A retrospective review of a consecutive series of 10,142 intravitreal injections of vascular targeting agents (bevacizumab, ranibizumab, triamcinolone acetonide, and preservative-free triamcinolone acetonide between June 1, 2007 and January 31, 2010, performed by a single service (TGM at the Bascom Palmer Eye Institute.Results: One case of clinically-suspected endophthalmitis was identified out of a total of 10,142 injections (0.009%, presenting within three days of injection of bevacizumab. The case was culture-positive for Staphylococcus epidermidis. Final visual acuity was 20/40 after pars plana vitrectomy surgery.Conclusions: In this series, the incidence of culture-positive endophthalmitis after intravitreal injection of vascular agents in an outpatient setting was very low. We believe that following a standardized injection protocol, adherence to sterile techniques and proper patient follow-up are determining factors for low incidence rates.Keywords: endophthalmitis, intravitreal injections, vascular targeting agents 

  19. Power law incidence rate in epidemic models. Comment on: "Mathematical models to characterize early epidemic growth: A review" by Gerardo Chowell et al.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Allen, Linda J. S.

    2016-09-01

    Dr. Chowell and colleagues emphasize the importance of considering a variety of modeling approaches to characterize the growth of an epidemic during the early stages [1]. A fit of data from the 2009 H1N1 influenza pandemic and the 2014-2015 Ebola outbreak to models indicates sub-exponential growth, in contrast to the classic, homogeneous-mixing SIR model with exponential growth. With incidence rate βSI / N and S approximately equal to the total population size N, the number of new infections in an SIR epidemic model grows exponentially as in the differential equation,

  20. Association of Increased Urinary Albumin With Risk of Incident Clinical Fracture and Rate of Hip Bone Loss: the Osteoporotic Fractures in Men Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fink, Howard A; Vo, Tien N; Langsetmo, Lisa; Barzilay, Joshua I; Cauley, Jane A; Schousboe, John T; Orwoll, Eric S; Canales, Muna T; Ishani, Areef; Lane, Nancy E; Ensrud, Kristine E

    2017-05-01

    Prior studies suggest that increased urine albumin is associated with a heightened fracture risk in women, but results in men are unclear. We used data from Osteoporotic Fractures in Men (MrOS), a prospective cohort study of community-dwelling men aged ≥65 years, to evaluate the association of increased urine albumin with subsequent fractures and annualized rate of hip bone loss. We calculated albumin/creatinine ratio (ACR) from urine collected at the 2003-2005 visit. Subsequent clinical fractures were ascertained from triannual questionnaires and centrally adjudicated by review of radiographic reports. Total hip BMD was measured by DXA at the 2003-2005 visit and again an average of 3.5 years later. We estimated risk of incident clinical fracture using Cox proportional hazards models, and annualized BMD change using ANCOVA. Of 2982 men with calculable ACR, 9.4% had ACR ≥30 mg/g (albuminuria) and 1.0% had ACR ≥300 mg/g (macroalbuminuria). During a mean of 8.7 years of follow-up, 20.0% of men had an incident clinical fracture. In multivariate-adjusted models, neither higher ACR quintile (p for trend 0.75) nor albuminuria (HR versus no albuminuria, 0.89; 95% CI, 0.65 to 1.20) was associated with increased risk of incident clinical fracture. Increased urine albumin had a borderline significant, multivariate-adjusted, positive association with rate of total hip bone loss when modeled in ACR quintiles (p = 0.06), but not when modeled as albuminuria versus no albuminuria. Macroalbuminuria was associated with a higher rate of annualized hip bone loss compared to no albuminuria (-1.8% more annualized loss than in men with ACR fracture associations. In these community-dwelling older men, we found no association between urine albumin levels and risk of incident clinical fracture, but found a borderline significant, positive association with rate of hip bone loss. © 2016 American Society for Bone and Mineral Research. © 2016 American Society for Bone and

  1. The relationships between Shanghai stock market and CNY/USD exchange rate: New evidence based on cross-correlation analysis, structural cointegration and nonlinear causality test

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Li; Wan, Jieqiu

    2012-12-01

    This paper explores the co-movement of Shanghai stock market and China Yuan (CNY) exchange rates. First, we find that stock price and exchange rate are significantly cross-correlated. Second, employing a cointegration test allowing for a structural break, we find that the Shanghai Composite Index (SCI) is not cointegrated with the exchange rate of CNY/USD. The so-called “cointegration” found in previous studies is just caused by the shock of the recent financial crisis. Third, using linear and nonlinear Granger causality tests, we find no causality between stock prices and exchange rates during the period before the recent financial crisis. After the financial crisis, a unidirectional causality behavior running from exchange rates to stock index is present.

  2. Trends in primary total hip arthroplasty in Spain from 2001 to 2008: Evaluating changes in demographics, comorbidity, incidence rates, length of stay, costs and mortality

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jimenez-Trujillo Isabel

    2011-02-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Hip arthroplasties is one of the most frequent surgical procedures in Spain and are conducted mainly in elderly subjects. We aim to analyze changes in incidence, co-morbidity profile, length of hospital stay (LOHS, costs and in-hospital mortality (IHM of patients undergoing primary total hip arthroplasty (THA over an 8-year study period in Spain. Methods We selected all surgical admissions in individuals aged ≥40 years who had received a primary THA (ICD-9-CM procedure code 81.51 between 2001 and 2008 from the National Hospital Discharge Database. Age- and sex-specific incidence rates, LOHS, costs and IHM were estimated for each year. Co-morbidity was assessed using the Charlson comorbidity index. Multivariate analysis of time trends was conducted using Poisson regression. Logistic regression models were conducted to analyze IHM. Results We identified a total of 161,791 discharges of patients having undergone THA from 2001 to 2008. Overall crude incidence had increased from 99 to 105 THA per 100.000 inhabitants from 2001 to 2008 (p 2 and in 2008, the prevalence of 1-2 or >2 had increased to 20.4% and 1.1% respectively (p Conclusions The current study provides clear and valid data indicating increased incidence of primary THA in Spain from 2001 to 2008 with concomitant reductions in LOHS, slight reduction IHM, but a significant increase in cost per patient. The health profile of the patient undergoing a THA seems to be worsening in Spain.

  3. [Prognostication of the outcome of heart valve prosthesis implantation by the method of nonlinear chaos dynamics of the heart rate].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Medvedev, A P; Gavrilushkin, A P; Kiselev, S V; Shelepnev, A V; Smirnov, N A

    2001-01-01

    An examination of 39 patients with heart diseases was performed before and after operations by the method of geometrical analysis of the nonlinear chaos (fractal) variability of the cardiac rhythm on the basis of the apparatus-programmed complex "Poly-spectrum". Five-minute-long registrations of ECG were carried on. On the basis of the data of examination of 195 healthy volunteers the reference norm of this method parameters was determined. Reliably lower parameters were found in patients with the acquired valvular disease. A dynamic investigation of the geometrical nonlinear structure of the cardiac rhythm has shown the possibility to make a prognosis of early complications after prosthetics of the heart valves.

  4. Forecasting of foreign exchange rates of Taiwan’s major trading partners by novel nonlinear Grey Bernoulli model NGBM(1, 1)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Chun-I.; Chen, Hong Long; Chen, Shuo-Pei

    2008-08-01

    The traditional Grey Model is easy to understand and simple to calculate, with satisfactory accuracy, but it is also lack of flexibility to adjust the model to acquire higher forecasting precision. This research studies feasibility and effectiveness of a novel Grey model together with the concept of the Bernoulli differential equation in ordinary differential equation. In this research, the author names this newly proposed model as Nonlinear Grey Bernoulli Model (NGBM). The NGBM is nonlinear differential equation with power index n. By controlling n, the curvature of the solution curve could be adjusted to fit the result of one time accumulated generating operation (1-AGO) of raw data. One extreme case from Grey system textbook is studied by NGBM, and two published articles are chosen for practical tests of NGBM. The results prove the novel NGBM is feasible and efficient. Finally, NGBM is used to forecast 2005 foreign exchange rates of twelve Taiwan major trading partners, including Taiwan.

  5. Incidence rate and pattern of clinically relevant potential drug-drug interactions in a large outpatient population of a developing country

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ehsan Nabovati

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The objective of this study was to determine incidence rate, type, and pattern of clinically relevant potential drug-drug interactions (pDDIs in a large outpatient population of a developing country. A retrospective, descriptive cross-sectional study was conducted on outpatients’ prescriptions in Khorasan Razavi province, Iran, over 12 months. A list of 25 clinically relevant DDIs, which are likely to occur in the outpatient setting, was used as the reference. Most frequent clinically relevant pDDIs, most common drugs contributing to the pDDIs, and the pattern of pDDIs for each medical specialty were determined. Descriptive statistics were used to report the results. In total, out of 8,169,142 prescriptions, 6,096 clinically relevant pDDIs were identified. The most common identified pDDIs were theophyllines-quinolones, warfarin-nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs, benzodiazepines-azole antifungal agents, and anticoagulants-thyroid hormones. The most common drugs contributing to the identified pDDIs were ciprofloxacin, theophylline, warfarin, aminophylline, alprazolam, levothyroxine, and selegiline. While the incidence rate of clinically relevant pDDIs in prescriptions of general practitioners, internists, and cardiologists was the highest, the average pDDI incidence per 10,000 prescriptions of pulmonologists, infectious disease specialists, and cardiologists was highest. Although a small proportion of the analyzed prescriptions contained drug pairs with potential for clinically relevant DDIs, a significant number of outpatients have been exposed to the adverse effects associated with these interactions. It is recommended that in addition to training physicians and pharmacists, other effective interventions such as computerized alerting systems and electronic prescribing systems be designed and implemented.

  6. Abundance, biting behaviour and parous rate of anopheline mosquito species in relation to malaria incidence in gold-mining areas of southern Venezuela.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moreno, J E; Rubio-Palis, Y; Páez, E; Pérez, E; Sánchez, V

    2007-12-01

    A longitudinal entomological and epidemiological study was conducted in five localities of southern Venezuela between January 1999 and April 2000 to determine the abundance, biting behaviour and parity of anopheline mosquitoes (Diptera: Culicidae) in relation to climate variables and malaria incidence. A total of 3685 female anopheline mosquitoes, representing six species, were collected. The most abundant species were Anopheles marajoara Galvão & Damasceno (60.7%) and Anopheles darlingi Root (35.1%), which together represented 95.8% of the total anophelines collected. Abundance and species distribution varied by locality. Malaria prevalence varied from 12.5 to 21.4 cases per 1000 population. Transmission occurred throughout the year; the annual parasite index (API) for the study period was 813.0 cases per 1000 population, with a range of 71.6-2492 per 1000 population, depending on locality. Plasmodium vivax (Grassi & Feletti) (Coccidia: Plasmodiidae) accounted for 78.6% of cases, Plasmodium falciparum (Welch) for 21.4% and mixed infections (Pv+Pf) for 0.05) between mosquito abundance and rainfall. Correlations between malaria incidence by parasite species and mosquito abundance were not significant (P > 0.05). Monthly parous rates were similar for An. marajoara and An. darlingi throughout the year, with two peaks that coincided with the dry-rainy transition period and the period of less rain. Peaks in the incidence of malaria cases were observed 1 month after major peaks in biting rates of parous anophelines. Anopheles darlingi engages in biting activity throughout the night, with two minor peaks at 23.00-00.00 hours and 03.00-04.00 hours. Anopheles marajoara has a different pattern, with a biting peak at 19.00-21.00 hours and 76.6% of biting occurring before midnight. Although both vectors bite indoors and outdoors, they showed a highly significant (P Venezuela and to provide relevant information to be considered when planning and implementing vector control

  7. Impact of anatomical variations of the circle of Willis on the incidence of aneurysms and their recurrence rate following endovascular treatment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Songsaeng, D. [Division of Neuroradiology, Department of Medical Imaging, University of Toronto, Toronto (Canada); Department of Radiology, Siriraj Hospital, Faculty of Medicine, Mahidol University, Bangkok (Thailand); Geibprasert, S.; Willinsky, R. [Division of Neuroradiology, Department of Medical Imaging, University of Toronto, Toronto (Canada); Tymianski, M. [Department of Neurosurgery, Toronto Western Hospital, University of Toronto, Toronto (Canada); TerBrugge, K.G. [Division of Neuroradiology, Department of Medical Imaging, University of Toronto, Toronto (Canada); Krings, T., E-mail: timo.krings@uhn.on.c [Division of Neuroradiology, Department of Medical Imaging, University of Toronto, Toronto (Canada)

    2010-11-15

    Aim: To analyse the impact of anatomical variations of the parent arteries on the incidence and recurrence rate following coil embolization of aneurysms of the anterior (AcoA), posterior communicating artery (PcoA) and basilar artery (BA) tip. Methods: Two hundred and two (96 AcoA, 67 PcoA, and 29 BA) aneurysms in 200 patients were treated with coil embolization between January 2000 and April 2008. Parent artery variations at each location were classified as: AcoA: A1 aplasia versus hypoplasia versus symmetrical size; PcoA: foetal origin versus medium versus small size, BA: cranial versus caudal versus asymmetrical fusion. The incidence of aneurysms and difference between recurrence rates for each group were recorded on follow-up. Results: AcoA, PcoA, and BA aneurysms were more often associated with embryonically earlier vessel wall dispositions (A1 aplasia, foetal PcoA, asymmetrical fusion). Two of these variations were also associated with aneurysm recurrence following coil embolization: asymmetrical A1 segment (p = 0.01), and asymmetrical BA tip (p = 0.02). Conclusions: AcoA, PcoA, and BA tip aneurysms tend to occur more often in anatomically variant parent artery dispositions, some of which are related to aneurysm recurrence following coil embolization. This may relate to a more fragile vessel disposition as it is not fully matured or to altered haemodynamics secondary to the anatomical variations.

  8. Increased Incidence Rate of Trauma- and Stressor-Related Disorders in Denmark After the September 11, 2001, Terrorist Attacks in the United States.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hansen, Bertel T; Østergaard, Søren D; Sønderskov, Kim M; Dinesen, Peter T

    2016-10-01

    The terrorist attacks that occurred on September 11, 2001 (hereafter referred to as 9/11) in the United States had a profound impact on the physical and mental health of Americans, but the effects beyond the United States are largely unknown. To understand the wider aftermath, we examined the consequences of the 9/11 attacks on mental disorders in the Kingdom of Denmark. Utilizing population data from the Danish Psychiatric Central Research Register from 1995 to 2012, we used a time-series intervention approach to estimate the change in the incidence rate of mental disorders after the 9/11 attacks. Based on analyses of 1,448,250 contacts with psychiatric services, we found that the attacks were followed by an immediate 16% increase in the incidence rate of trauma- and stressor-related disorders. This surge dissipated approximately a year after 9/11. In contrast, no similar increases were found for other disorders. This is consistent with the prominent role of external stressors in the etiology of trauma- and stressor-related disorders. The results indicate that the effects of 9/11 on mental disorders extended across the Atlantic Ocean to Denmark. Thus, the impact of terrorist attacks on mental health is likely not limited to inhabitants of the country under attack; it also extends to people far away and without immediate relation to it.

  9. Influence of anatomical subsite on the incidence of microsatellite instability, and KRAS and BRAF mutation rates in patients with colon carcinoma.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Benedix, Frank; Meyer, Frank; Kube, Rainer; Kropf, Siegfried; Kuester, Doerthe; Lippert, Hans; Roessner, Albert; Krüger, Sabine

    2012-10-15

    There is a growing amount of data supporting the concept that cancers originating from the proximal and distal colon are distinct clinicopathological entities. The incidence of MSI and BRAF mutation is strongly associated with right sided tumor location, whereas there are conflicting results for KRAS mutation rates. However, to date, no data exist whether and to what extent defined colonic subsites influence MSI status, KRAS and BRAF mutation rates. We selected primary colon cancer from 171 patients operated on at our institution between 2007 and 2010. BRAF, KRAS mutation rates and microsatellite instability were determined and correlated with clinicopathological features and tumor location. MSI-h cancers were significantly associated with poor histological grade but a lower rate of distant metastases. KRAS-mutated tumors were linked to lower T-stage and better differentiation. Colon carcinomas with BRAF mutation were significantly associated with distant metastatic spread and poor histological grade. Furthermore, we found that MSI-h status, KRAS and BRAF mutation rates varied remarkably among the colonic subsites irrespective of right- and left-sided origin, respectively. The results of the current study provide further evidence that a simple classification into right- and left-sided colon carcinoma does not represent the complexity of this tumor entity.

  10. Novel approaches to the calculation and comparison of thermoregulatory parameters: Non-linear regression of metabolic rate and evaporative water loss in Australian rodents.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tomlinson, Sean

    2016-04-01

    The calculation and comparison of physiological characteristics of thermoregulation has provided insight into patterns of ecology and evolution for over half a century. Thermoregulation has typically been explored using linear techniques; I explore the application of non-linear scaling to more accurately calculate and compare characteristics and thresholds of thermoregulation, including the basal metabolic rate (BMR), peak metabolic rate (PMR) and the lower (Tlc) and upper (Tuc) critical limits to the thermo-neutral zone (TNZ) for Australian rodents. An exponentially-modified logistic function accurately characterised the response of metabolic rate to ambient temperature, while evaporative water loss was accurately characterised by a Michaelis-Menten function. When these functions were used to resolve unique parameters for the nine species studied here, the estimates of BMR and TNZ were consistent with the previously published estimates. The approach resolved differences in rates of metabolism and water loss between subfamilies of Australian rodents that haven't been quantified before. I suggest that non-linear scaling is not only more effective than the established segmented linear techniques, but also is more objective. This approach may allow broader and more flexible comparison of characteristics of thermoregulation, but it needs testing with a broader array of taxa than those used here.

  11. Age-specific bone tumour incidence rates are governed by stem cell exhaustion influencing the supply and demand of progenitor cells.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Richardson, Richard B

    2014-07-01

    Knudson's carcinogenic model, which simulates incidence rates for retinoblastoma, provides compelling evidence for a two-stage mutational process. However, for more complex cancers, existing multistage models are less convincing. To fill this gap, I hypothesize that neoplasms preferentially arise when stem cell exhaustion creates a short supply of progenitor cells at ages of high proliferative demand. To test this hypothesis, published datasets were employed to model the age distribution of osteochondroma, a benign lesion, and osteosarcoma, a malignant one. The supply of chondrogenic stem-like cells in femur growth plates of children and adolescents was evaluated and compared with the progenitor cell demand of longitudinal bone growth. Similarly, the supply of osteoprogenitor cells from birth to old age was compared with the demands of bone formation. Results show that progenitor cell demand-to-supply ratios are a good risk indicator, exhibiting similar trends to the unimodal and bimodal age distributions of osteochondroma and osteosarcoma, respectively. The hypothesis also helps explain Peto's paradox and the finding that taller individuals are more prone to cancers and have shorter lifespans. The hypothesis was tested, in the manner of Knudson, by its ability to convincingly explain and demonstrate, for the first time, a bone tumour's bimodal age-incidence curve. Crown Copyright © 2014. Published by Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  12. Measles incidence rate and a phylogenetic study of contemporary genotype H1 measles strains in China: is an improved measles vaccine needed?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shi, Jingwei; Zheng, Jingtong; Huang, Honglan; Hu, Yu; Bian, Jiang; Xu, Deqi; Li, Fan

    2011-12-01

    The incidence of measles in China has increased over the last decade. To evaluate the genetic variation of measles strains, 16 measles wild-type virus strains were isolated from 14 vaccinated cases and 2 nonvaccinated cases in Jilin Province during 2005-2006, and their nucleoprotein (N) and hemagglutinin (H) genes were amplified by RT-PCR. The amplified products were sequenced and compared with the Edmonston virus and the existing vaccine strains (Changchun-47 and Shanghai-191). The results showed that the variation rate between the vaccine and wild-type strains was 9.8-12.0% in the N gene and 5.9-6.9% in the H gene, respectively. In addition, cross-neutralization assays revealed that although sera obtained from infants following primary vaccination effectively neutralized vaccine strains, the capacity in neutralizing H1 wild-type measles virus isolates was decreased fourfold. Antigenic ratios testing revealed that the antigenic relatedness between wild-type measles viruses and existing vaccine strains was notably low. These data suggest that the increased incidence of measles in Jilin Province may be attributed to the antigenic drift between wild-type and vaccine strains. Our findings strengthen the recommendation of supplemental immunization with existing vaccines and also strongly suggest a need for developing new vaccines to better control measles virus outbreaks.

  13. The incidence rate of HIV type-1 drug resistance in patients on antiretroviral therapy: a nationwide population-based Danish cohort study 1999-2005

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Audelin, A.M.; Lohse, N.; Obel, N.

    2009-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Newer antiretroviral treatment regimens for HIV carry a lower risk of inducing drug resistance mutations. We estimated changes in incidence rates (IRs) of new mutations in HIV-infected individuals receiving highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART). METHODS: Population-based data...... were obtained from the Danish HIV Cohort Study and the Danish HIV Sequence Database. We included treatment-naive patients initiating HAART after December 1997 and computed time to first drug resistance mutation, identified as new mutations detected within 1 year after a 60-day period of treatment.......077). The IR of PI resistance decreased from 7.5 (1.4-21.8) in 1999 to 2.9 (0.7-11.4) in 2002-2003 (P=0.148). The IRs were low for specific resistance mutations, except for M184V (IR 5.6 [4.0-7.9]) and K103N (IR 8.2 [5.6-12.0]). CONCLUSIONS: The incidence of acquired drug resistance has decreased among HIV...

  14. Meta-analysis on the incidence rates of child sexual abuse in China%中国儿童期性虐待发生率的Meta分析

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    彭淋; 张思恒; 杨剑; 李洋; 叶云凤; 董晓梅; 王声湧

    2013-01-01

    Objective To offer basic data related to the prevention of child sexual abuse,we conducted a Meta-analysis on the national incidence rate on child sexual abuse in the country.Methods Publications between 2000 and 2013 were extracted from PubMed,Springer Link,Elsevier-SDOL,Chinese Biomedical Database (CBM),China National Knowledge Infrastructure (CNKI),Chinese Science & Technology journal database (VIP),Wanfang Databases,China master's Theses Full-text Database and China Conference Papers Full-text Database.Observational studies which containing the incidence rate of child sexual abuse were included.We used the Loney criteria to evaluate the quality of searched publications.The Meta incidence rate was estimated using the Stata software.Subgroup analysis were undertaken on gender issues.Sensitivity analysis were performed to evaluate the impact of types or qualities to the research objects.Results Fifteen papers were included in this Meta-analysis,with a sample size of 16 682.The combined incidence rate of child sexual abuse was 18.20% (95%CI:13.74%-22.66%).For injured persons,girls had a higher incidence rate on child sexual abuse (11.22%) than boys (8.25%) in terms of contact sexual abuse,but no significant difference on gender was found in the prevalence rates of global and un-contact sexual abuse.Data from sensitivity analysis revealed that the quality or types of the objects slightly affected the incidence rate of traffic injuries.Conclusion Results of this study indicated that child sexual abuse was common and serious in China,suggesting that prevention and control programs on childhood abuse should be emphasized and promoted.%目的 采用Meta分析方法综合评价近10年来中国儿童期性虐待的发生情况,为预防提供基础资料.方法 系统检索PubMed、Springer Link、Elsevier-SDOL、中国生物医学文献数据库(CBM)、中国期刊全文数据库(CNKI)、维普中文科技期刊全文数据库、万方数据资源系统、

  15. Comparative effect of partial root-zone drying and deficit irrigation on incidence of blossom-end rot in tomato under varied calcium rates

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sun, Yanqi; Feng, Hao; Liu, Fulai

    2013-01-01

    This study investigated the comparative effects of reduced irrigation regimes—partial root-zone drying (PRD) and conventional deficit irrigation (DI)—on the incidence of blossom-end rot (BER) in tomato (Solanum lycopersicum L.) under three Ca-fertilization rates: 0, 100, and 200mg Ca kg–1 soil...... xylem sap abscisic acid concentration, lower stomatal conductance, and higher plant water status in the PRD in relation to the DI plants might have contributed to the increased fruit Ca uptake, and could have reduced BER development in tomato fruits. Therefore, under conditions with limited freshwater...... resources, application of PRD irrigation could be a promising approach for saving water and for preventing BER development in tomatoes....

  16. Predicting survival in heart failure case and control subjects by use of fully automated methods for deriving nonlinear and conventional indices of heart rate dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ho, K. K.; Moody, G. B.; Peng, C. K.; Mietus, J. E.; Larson, M. G.; Levy, D.; Goldberger, A. L.

    1997-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Despite much recent interest in quantification of heart rate variability (HRV), the prognostic value of conventional measures of HRV and of newer indices based on nonlinear dynamics is not universally accepted. METHODS AND RESULTS: We have designed algorithms for analyzing ambulatory ECG recordings and measuring HRV without human intervention, using robust methods for obtaining time-domain measures (mean and SD of heart rate), frequency-domain measures (power in the bands of 0.001 to 0.01 Hz [VLF], 0.01 to 0.15 Hz [LF], and 0.15 to 0.5 Hz [HF] and total spectral power [TP] over all three of these bands), and measures based on nonlinear dynamics (approximate entropy [ApEn], a measure of complexity, and detrended fluctuation analysis [DFA], a measure of long-term correlations). The study population consisted of chronic congestive heart failure (CHF) case patients and sex- and age-matched control subjects in the Framingham Heart Study. After exclusion of technically inadequate studies and those with atrial fibrillation, we used these algorithms to study HRV in 2-hour ambulatory ECG recordings of 69 participants (mean age, 71.7+/-8.1 years). By use of separate Cox proportional-hazards models, the conventional measures SD (Psurvival over a mean follow-up period of 1.9 years; other measures, including ApEn (P>.3), were not. In multivariable models, DFA was of borderline predictive significance (P=.06) after adjustment for the diagnosis of CHF and SD. CONCLUSIONS: These results demonstrate that HRV analysis of ambulatory ECG recordings based on fully automated methods can have prognostic value in a population-based study and that nonlinear HRV indices may contribute prognostic value to complement traditional HRV measures.

  17. Non-linear scaling of oxygen consumption and heart rate in a very large cockroach species (Gromphadorhina portentosa): correlated changes with body size and temperature.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Streicher, Jeffrey W; Cox, Christian L; Birchard, Geoffrey F

    2012-04-01

    Although well documented in vertebrates, correlated changes between metabolic rate and cardiovascular function of insects have rarely been described. Using the very large cockroach species Gromphadorhina portentosa, we examined oxygen consumption and heart rate across a range of body sizes and temperatures. Metabolic rate scaled positively and heart rate negatively with body size, but neither scaled linearly. The response of these two variables to temperature was similar. This correlated response to endogenous (body mass) and exogenous (temperature) variables is likely explained by a mutual dependence on similar metabolic substrate use and/or coupled regulatory pathways. The intraspecific scaling for oxygen consumption rate showed an apparent plateauing at body masses greater than about 3 g. An examination of cuticle mass across all instars revealed isometric scaling with no evidence of an ontogenetic shift towards proportionally larger cuticles. Published oxygen consumption rates of other Blattodea species were also examined and, as in our intraspecific examination of G. portentosa, the scaling relationship was found to be non-linear with a decreasing slope at larger body masses. The decreasing slope at very large body masses in both intraspecific and interspecific comparisons may have important implications for future investigations of the relationship between oxygen transport and maximum body size in insects.

  18. Subcutaneous bortezomib in multiple myeloma patients induces similar therapeutic response rates as intravenous application but it does not reduce the incidence of peripheral neuropathy.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jiri Minarik

    Full Text Available Subcutaneous (SC application of bortezomib has been recently introduced as a new application route in multiple myeloma (MM patients. We performed an analysis to compare the outcomes of bortezomib-based therapy in multiple myeloma (MM patients treated using either intravenous (IV or subcutaneous (SC route of administration.During January 2012 through December 2013, we performed a retrospective analysis of 446 patients with MM treated with bortezomib-based regimens (either once weekly - 63% or twice weekly - 27% in both, the first line setting, and in relapse, with separate analysis of patients undergoing autologous stem cell transplantation. We assessed the response rates and toxicity profiles in both, IV and SC route of bortezomib administration.The response rates in both IV and SC arm were similar with overall response rate 71.7% vs 70.7%, complete remissions in 13.9% vs 8.6%, very good partial remissions in 30.8% vs 34.5% and partial remissions in 27% vs 27.6%. The most frequent grade ≥ 3 toxicities were anemia, thrombocytopenia and neutropenia, with no significant differences between IV and SC group. There were no significant differences in the rate of peripheral neuropathy (PN. PN of any grade was present in 48% in the IV arm and in 41% in the SC arm. PN grade ≥ 2 was present in 20% vs 18% and PN grade ≥ 3 was present in 6% vs 4%.We conclude that subcutaneous application of bortezomib has similar therapeutic outcomes and toxicity profile as intravenous route of application. In our cohort there was no difference in the incidence of PN, suggesting that PN is dose dependent and might be reduced by lower intensity schemes rather than by the route of administration.

  19. The incidence rate of female breast cancer in Saudi Arabia: an observational descriptive epidemiological analysis of data from Saudi Cancer Registry 2001–2008

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alghamdi IG

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available Ibrahim G Alghamdi,1 Issam I Hussain,1 Mohamed S Alghamdi,2 Mohamed A El-Sheemy1,3 1University of Lincoln, Brayford Pool, Lincoln, United Kingdom; 2Ministry of Health, General Directorate of Health Affairs Al-Baha, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia; 3Lincoln Hospital, Research and Development, United Lincolnshire Hospitals, National Health Service Trust, Lincoln, United Kingdom Background: This study presents descriptive epidemiological data related to breast cancer cases diagnosed from 2001 to 2008 among Saudi women, including the frequency and percentage of cases, the crude incidence rate (CIR, and the age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR, adjusted by the region and year of diagnosis. Methods: This is a retrospective descriptive epidemiological study of all Saudi female breast cancer cases from 2001 to 2008. The statistical analyses were conducted using descriptive statistics, a linear regression model, and analysis of variance with the Statistical Package for the Social Sciences version 20 (IBM Corporation, Armonk, NY, USA. Results: A total of 6,922 female breast cancer cases were recorded in the Saudi Cancer Registry from 2001 to 2008. The highest overall percentages (38.6% and 31.2% of female breast cancer cases were documented in women who were 30–44 and 45–59 years of age, respectively. The eastern region of Saudi Arabia had the highest overall ASIR, at 26.6 per 100,000 women, followed by Riyadh at 20.5 and Makkah at 19.4. Jazan, Baha, and Asir had the lowest average ASIRs, at 4.8, 6.1, and 7.3 per 100,000 women, respectively. The region of Jouf (24.2%; CIR 11.2, ASIR 17.2 had the highest changes in CIR and ASIR from 2001 to 2008. While Qassim, Jazan and Tabuk recorded down-trending rates with negative values. Conclusion: There was a significant increase in the CIRs and ASIRs for female breast cancer between 2001 and 2008. The majority of breast cancer cases occurred among younger women. The region of Jouf had the greatest significant

  20. A Systematic Review of the Incidence, Risk Factors and Case Fatality Rates of Invasive Nontyphoidal Salmonella (iNTS) Disease in Africa (1966 to 2014)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Uche, Ifeanyi Valentine; MacLennan, Calman A.

    2017-01-01

    This study systematically reviews the literature on the occurrence, incidence and case fatality rate (CFR) of invasive nontyphoidal Salmonella (iNTS) disease in Africa from 1966 to 2014. Data on the burden of iNTS disease in Africa are sparse and generally have not been aggregated, making it difficult to describe the epidemiology that is needed to inform the development and implementation of effective prevention and control policies. This study involved a comprehensive search of PubMed and Embase databases. It documents the geographical spread of iNTS disease over time in Africa, and describes its reported incidence, risk factors and CFR. We found that Nontyphoidal Salmonella (NTS) have been reported as a cause of bacteraemia in 33 out of 54 African countries, spanning the five geographical regions of Africa, and especially in sub-Saharan Africa since 1966. Our review indicates that NTS have been responsible for up to 39% of community acquired blood stream infections in sub-Saharan Africa with an average CFR of 19%. Salmonella Typhimurium and Enteritidis are the major serovars implicated and together have been responsible for 91%% of the cases of iNTS disease, (where serotype was determined), reported in Africa. The study confirms that iNTS disease is more prevalent amongst Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV)-infected individuals, infants, and young children with malaria, anaemia and malnutrition. In conclusion, iNTS disease is a substantial cause of community-acquired bacteraemia in Africa. Given the high morbidity and mortality of iNTS disease in Africa, it is important to develop effective prevention and control strategies including vaccination. PMID:28056035

  1. Quantifying bamboo coral growth rate nonlinearity with the radiocarbon bomb spike: A new model for paleoceanographic chronology development

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frenkel, M. M.; LaVigne, M.; Miller, H. R.; Hill, T. M.; McNichol, A.; Gaylord, M. Lardie

    2017-07-01

    Bamboo corals, long-lived cold water gorgonin octocorals, offer unique paleoceanographic archives of the intermediate ocean. These Isididae corals are characterized by alternating gorgonin nodes and high Mg-calcite internodes, which synchronously extend radially. Bamboo coral calcite internodes have been utilized to obtain geochemical proxy data, however, growth rate uncertainty has made it difficult to construct precise chronologies for these corals. Previous studies have relied upon a single tie point from records of the anthropogenic Δ14C bomb spike preserved in the gorgonin nodes of live-collected corals to calculate a mean radial extension rate for the outer 50 years of skeletal growth. Bamboo coral chronologies are typically constructed by applying this mean extension rate to the entire coral record, assuming constant radial extension with coral age. In this study, we aim to test this underlying assumption by analyzing the organic nodes of six California margin bamboo corals at high enough resolution (coral collection date (2007.5) for four samples. Radial extension rates between tie points ranged from 10 to 204 μm/year, with a decrease in growth rate evident between the 1957-1970 and 1970-2007.5 periods for all four corals. A negative correlation between growth rate and coral radius (r =-0.7; p=0.04) was determined for multiple bamboo coral taxa and individuals from the California margin, demonstrating a decline in radial extension rate with specimen age and size. To provide a mechanistic basis for these observations, a simple mathematical model was developed based on the assumption of a constant increase in circular cross sectional area with time to quantify this decline in radial extension rate with coral size between chronological tie points. Applying the area-based model to our Δ14C bomb spike time series from individual corals improves chronology accuracy for all live-collected corals with complete Δ14C bomb spikes. Hence, this study provides

  2. Automatic sleep staging using empirical mode decomposition, discrete wavelet transform, time-domain, and nonlinear dynamics features of heart rate variability signals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ebrahimi, Farideh; Setarehdan, Seyed-Kamaledin; Ayala-Moyeda, Jose; Nazeran, Homer

    2013-10-01

    The conventional method for sleep staging is to analyze polysomnograms (PSGs) recorded in a sleep lab. The electroencephalogram (EEG) is one of the most important signals in PSGs but recording and analysis of this signal presents a number of technical challenges, especially at home. Instead, electrocardiograms (ECGs) are much easier to record and may offer an attractive alternative for home sleep monitoring. The heart rate variability (HRV) signal proves suitable for automatic sleep staging. Thirty PSGs from the Sleep Heart Health Study (SHHS) database were used. Three feature sets were extracted from 5- and 0.5-min HRV segments: time-domain features, nonlinear-dynamics features and time-frequency features. The latter was achieved by using empirical mode decomposition (EMD) and discrete wavelet transform (DWT) methods. Normalized energies in important frequency bands of HRV signals were computed using time-frequency methods. ANOVA and t-test were used for statistical evaluations. Automatic sleep staging was based on HRV signal features. The ANOVA followed by a post hoc Bonferroni was used for individual feature assessment. Most features were beneficial for sleep staging. A t-test was used to compare the means of extracted features in 5- and 0.5-min HRV segments. The results showed that the extracted features means were statistically similar for a small number of features. A separability measure showed that time-frequency features, especially EMD features, had larger separation than others. There was not a sizable difference in separability of linear features between 5- and 0.5-min HRV segments but separability of nonlinear features, especially EMD features, decreased in 0.5-min HRV segments. HRV signal features were classified by linear discriminant (LD) and quadratic discriminant (QD) methods. Classification results based on features from 5-min segments surpassed those obtained from 0.5-min segments. The best result was obtained from features using 5-min HRV

  3. Baseline incidence and severity of renal insufficiency evaluated by estimated glomerular filtration rates in patients scheduled for contrast-enhanced CT

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Utsunomiya, Daisuke; Yanaga, Yumi; Oda, Seitaro; Namimoto, Tomohiro; Yamashita, Yasuyuki (Dept. of Diagnostic Radiology, Faculty of Life Sciences, Kumamoto Univ., Kumamoto (Japan)), email: utsunomi@kumamoto-u.ac.jp; Awai, Kazuo (Dept. of Diagnostic Radiology, Graduate School of Biomedical Sciences, Hiroshima Univ., Hiroshima (Japan)); Funama, Yoshinori (Dept. of Medical Physics, Faculty of Life Sciences, Kumamoto Univ., Kumamoto (Japan))

    2011-06-15

    Background Although pre-existing renal insufficiency (RI) is the most important risk factor for contrast-induced nephropathy (CIN), the background distribution of baseline renal function has not been investigated thoroughly in patients scheduled for contrast-enhanced CT. Purpose To investigate the incidence and severity of baseline RI evaluated by estimated glomerular filtration rates (eGFR) in patients who underwent contrast-enhanced CT at an academic center. Material and Methods A total of 6586 patients (3630 men and 2956 women; mean age 57.0 +- 11.9 years) who underwent contrast-enhanced CT between January and December 2008 were retrospectively studied. Of these, 829 had cardiovascular diseases (CVD), 5116 had oncologic diseases, 178 had diabetes mellitus (DM), and 1572 had chronic liver disease (CLD). The eGFR (mL/min/1.73 m2) was calculated from their serum creatinine level. Mild, moderate-a, moderate-b, and severe RI were recorded at 60 < =eGFR < 90, 45 < =eGFR < 60, 30 < =eGFR < 45 and eGFR < 30, respectively. Results Of the 6586 patients, 1.6%, 3.7%, 13.7%, and 54.2% were judged to present with severe, moderate-b, moderate-a, and mild RI, respectively. While moderate-b-to-severe RI was recorded in 133 (3.2%) of 4161 patients aged 70 years or less, it was observed in 218 (9.0%) of the 2425 patients who were 71 years or older. Among the 829 CVD patients, 9.9% manifested moderate-b-to-severe- and 73.0% mild-to-moderate-a RI. The corresponding rates were 4.4% and 68.9% for oncologic disease, 16.9% and 61.2% for DM, and 4.8% and 71.5% for CLD patients. By univariate analysis, there was a significant association between moderate-b-to-severe RI and the advanced age, CVD, DM, and non-oncologic disease. Multivariate analysis showed that the advanced age, DM, and non-oncologic disease were statistically associated with moderate-b-to-severe RI. Conclusion The incidence of RI of eGFR < 45mL/min/1.73 m2 at baseline was high in patients with advanced age, CVD and DM and

  4. Analysis of HIV Epidemic Model with Nonlinear Infection Rate and Cure Rate%一类具有非线性传染率和有效治疗的HIV动力学模型的分析

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    郭树敏; 李学志

    2015-01-01

    研究具有非线性感染率的传统数学模型,通过对模型的稳定性分析得到了保证染病平衡态和无病平衡态的全局稳定性所需要的参数条件,并进行了数值模拟.%It is well known that the mathematical models provide very significant information for the research of human immunodeficiency HIV-1and HCV. However, the infection rate of nearly all mathematical models is lin-ear which shows the simple interaction between the T cells and the viral particles. It has practical significance to study a traditional mathematical model with nonlinear infection rate. It obtained some sufficient conditions on the parameters for the global stability of the infected equilibrium state, and the infection-free equilibrium state are given. Numerical simulations are presented to illustrate the results.

  5. Nonlinear time series and neural-network models of exchange rates between the US dollar and major currencies

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    D.E. Allen (David); M.J. McAleer (Michael); S. Peiris (Shelton); A.K. Singh (Abhay)

    2015-01-01

    textabstractThis paper features an analysis of major currency exchange rate movements in relation to the US dollar, as constituted in US dollar terms. Euro, British pound, Chinese yuan, and Japanese yen are modelled using a variety of non- linear models, including smooth transition regression models

  6. Modeling winter moth Operophtera brumata egg phenology : Nonlinear effects of temperature and developmental stage on developmental rate

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Salis, Lucia; Lof, Marjolein; van Asch, Margriet; Visser, Marcel E.

    2016-01-01

    Understanding the relationship between an insect's developmental rate and temperature is crucial to forecast insect phenology under climate change. In the winter moth Operophtera brumata timing of egg-hatching has severe fitness consequences on growth and reproduction as egg-hatching has to match bu

  7. Classification of acute stress using linear and non-linear heart rate variability analysis derived from sternal ECG

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Tanev, George; Saadi, Dorthe Bodholt; Hoppe, Karsten

    2014-01-01

    features from electrocardiograms (ECG) acquired by the wireless wearable ePatch® recorder. The highest recognition rates were acquired for the neutral stage (90%), the acute stress stage (80%) and the baseline stage (80%) by sample entropy, detrended fluctuation analysis and normalized high frequency...

  8. Incidence and mortality rates in breast, corpus uteri, and ovarian cancers in Poland (1980–2013: an analysis of population-based data in relation to socio-economic changes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Banas T

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available Tomasz Banas,1 Grzegorz Juszczyk,2 Kazimierz Pitynski,1 Dorota Nieweglowska,1 Artur Ludwin,1 Aleksandra Czerw2 1Department of Gynecology and Oncology, Jagiellonian University Medical College, Krakow, 2Faculty of Health Science, Medical University of Warsaw, Warsaw, Poland Objectives: This study aimed to analyze incidence and mortality trends in breast cancer (BC, corpus uteri cancer (CUC, and ovarian cancer (OC in Poland in the context of sociodemographic changes.Materials and methods: Incidence and mortality data (1980–2013 were retrieved from the Polish National Cancer Registry, while socioeconomic data (1960–2013 were obtained from the World Bank. Age-standardized incidence and mortality rates were calculated by direct standardization, and join-point regression was performed to describe trends using the average annual percentage change (AAPC.Results: A significant decrease in birth and fertility rates and a large increase in gross domestic product were observed together with a decrease in the total mortality rate among women, as well as an increase in life expectancy for women. A large, significant increase in BC incidence was observed (AAPC1980–1990 2.14, AAPC1990–1996 4.71, AAPC1996–2013 2.21, with a small but significant decrease in mortality after a slight increase (AAPC1980–1994 0.52, AAPC1994–2013 −0.66. During the period 1980–2013, a significant increase in CUC incidence (AAPC1980–1994 3.7, AAPC1994–2013 1.93 was observed, with an initial mortality-rate reduction followed by a significant increase (AAPC1980–2006 −1.12, AAPC2006–2013 3.74. After the initial increase of both OC incidence and mortality from 1994, the incidence rate decreased significantly (AAPC1980–1994 2.98, AAPC1994–2013 −0.49, as did the mortality rate (AAPC1980–1994 0.52, AAPC1994–2013 −0.66.Conclusion: After 1994, a decrease in OC incidence was found, while the incidence of BC and CUC continued to increase. A reduction in

  9. Dutch perfusion incident survey.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Groenenberg, Ingrid; Weerwind, Patrick W; Everts, Peter A M; Maessen, Jos G

    2010-09-01

    Cardiopulmonary bypass procedures remain complex, involving many potential risks. Therefore, a nationwide retrospective study was conducted to gain insight into the number of incidents and accidents in Dutch adult perfusion practice. An anonymous postal survey (85 questions about hardware, disposables, fluids and medication, air emboli, anticoagulation, practice, and safety measures) was sent to all Dutch perfusionists involved in adult cardiovascular perfusion during 2006 and 2007. To guarantee complete anonymity, respondents were asked to return the survey to a notary who discarded personal information. The net response rate was 72% and covered 23,500 perfusions. Individual respondents performed 240 ± 103 perfusions during the 2-year study period and had 13.8 ± 8.7 years of practical experience. The incident rate was 1 per 15.6 perfusions and the adverse event rate was 1 per 1,236 perfusions. The three most reported incidents were: (1) persistent inability to raise the activated coagulation time above 400s during perfusion (184 incidents); (2) an allergic or anaphylactic reaction to drugs, fluids, or blood products (114 incidents); and (3) clotting formation in the extracorporeal circuit (74 incidents). Furthermore, pre-bypass safety measures showed no statistically significant association with the reported incidents. In comparison with data from the recent literature, the reported number of incidents is high. Nevertheless, the adverse outcome rate is well matched to other published surveys. The relatively high response rate conveys the impression that the Dutch perfusionist is vigilant and willing to report incidents. Hence, a web-based Dutch perfusion incident registration system is recommended.

  10. Generation of microwave radiation by nonlinear interaction of a high-power, high-repetition rate, 1064-nm laser in KTP crystals

    CERN Document Server

    Borghesani, A F; Carugno, G

    2013-01-01

    We report measurements of microwave (RF) generation in the centimeter band accomplished by irradiating a nonlinear KTiOPO$_4$ (KTP) crystal with a home-made, infrared laser at $1064\\,$nm as a result of optical rectification (OR). The laser delivers pulse trains of duration up to $1\\,\\mu$s. Each train consists of several high-intensity pulses at an adjustable repetition rate of approximately $ 4.6\\,$GHz. The duration of the generated RF pulses is determined by that of the pulse trains. We have investigated both microwave- and second harmonic (SHG) generation as a function of the laser intensity and of the orientation of the laser polarization with respect to the crystallographic axes of KTP.

  11. Optimal policy for profit maximising in an EOQ model under non-linear holding cost and stock-dependent demand rate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pando, V.; García-Laguna, J.; San-José, L. A.

    2012-11-01

    In this article, we integrate a non-linear holding cost with a stock-dependent demand rate in a maximising profit per unit time model, extending several inventory models studied by other authors. After giving the mathematical formulation of the inventory system, we prove the existence and uniqueness of the optimal policy. Relying on this result, we can obtain the optimal solution using different numerical algorithms. Moreover, we provide a necessary and sufficient condition to determine whether a system is profitable, and we establish a rule to check when a given order quantity is the optimal lot size of the inventory model. The results are illustrated through numerical examples and the sensitivity of the optimal solution with respect to changes in some values of the parameters is assessed.

  12. The Clinical Effect of the Incidence Rate of Macrosomia on the Increase of Cesarean Section Rate%巨大儿发生率对剖宫产率增加的临床影响研究

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    严伟

    2015-01-01

    目的:探讨巨大儿发生率对剖宫产率增加的临床影响。方法回顾性分析我院妇产科2010年1月1日~2014年12月31日分娩的巨大儿295例和同期3263例正常体重儿的临床资料,比较产妇剖宫产率,分析其原因,并提出预防巨大儿发生的方法。结果2010年~2014年新生儿分娩数量分别为697例、798例、597例、835例和631例,各年巨大儿例数分别为54(7.7%)例、65(8.1%)例、50(8.4%)例、71(8.5%)例和55(8.7%)例,巨大儿发生率呈现逐年升高的趋势;巨大儿组中295例有229例为剖宫产,占比77.6%,正常体重组3263例中有1182例为剖宫产,占比36.2%,巨大儿组剖宫产率高于正常体重组,差异具有统计学意义(χ2=8.672,P <0.01);巨大儿组分娩并发症肩难产、新生儿产伤、新生儿窒息以及产后出血的例数和发生率分别为5(1.7%)、18(6.1%)、8(2.7%)和50(16.9%),而同期正常体重新生儿分娩并发症的例数和发生率分别为4(0.1%)、42(1.3%)、17(0.5%)和7(0.2%),巨大儿组分娩并发症发生率要高于正常体重组,差异具有统计学意义。结论孕期应该合理膳食,适当运动,对于糖尿病孕妇在孕期还应当控制血糖处于正常水平,尽可能降低巨大儿的发生率。对于产前确诊为巨大儿的,应适当放宽剖宫产的指征,尽可能减轻巨大儿对母婴造成的影响。%Objective To explore the clinical effect of the incidence rate of Macrosomia on the increase of cesarean section rate. Methods Retrospectively analyzed the clinical data of the 295 cases of Macrosomia and 3263 cases of normal weight children at the same period in our hospital from January 1,2010 to December 31,2014. Compared the rate of cesarean section,analyzed the reasons,and put forward methods to prevention it. Results From 2010 to 2014,the number of newborn respectively were 697/798/597/835/631 cases

  13. Application of resilient back propagation artificial neural network model on prediction of incidence rate of coronary heart disease%弹性反向传播神经网络在冠心病发病率预报中的应用

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    胡先宁; 马亮亮

    2013-01-01

    目的 探讨弹性反向传播(BP)神经网络在时间序列资料分析中的应用,建立冠心病发病率的预测模型.方法 利用青海海西州地区2003~2009年登记的冠心病发病率时间序列资料,以双曲正切S型函数为传输函数、隐层节点为4与11的三层BP神经网络,建立两种冠心病发病率的非线性时间序列预测模型.结果 建立的ANN2预测模型简单易行,预测值平均相对误差为0.005 547,预测精度高.结论 BP人工神经网络可以用于冠心病发病率的预测.%Objective To discuss the application of resilient back propagation (BP) artificial neural network predictive model and establish predictive incidence rate model of coronary artery heart disease( CAD). Methods Two nonlinear time series model of resilient BP artificial network were established for the incidence rate of CAD from 2003 to 2009 in Haixizhou region, Qinghai province of China, using three layers BP neural network based on hyperbolic logarithm function with the number of hidden node four and eleven. Results ANN2 predictive model was simpler and more effective with high prediction precision, the average relative error value was 0. 005 547. Conclusions The resilient BP artificial neural network predictive model could be used to forecast CAD incidence rate with high prediction precision of short-term time series.

  14. Relationship between linear and nonlinear dynamics of heart rate and impairment of lung function in COPD patients

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mazzuco A

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available Adriana Mazzuco,1 Wladimir Musetti Medeiros,2 Milena Pelosi Rizk Sperling,1 Aline Soares de Souza,2 Maria Clara Noman Alencar,2 Flávio Ferlin Arbex,2 José Alberto Neder,2,3 Ross Arena,4 Audrey Borghi-Silva1 1Cardiopulmonary Physiotherapy Laboratory, Federal University of São Carlos, São Carlos, 2Pulmonary Function and Clinical Exercise Physiology Unit, Respiratory Division, Department of Medicine, Federal University of São Paulo, São Paulo, Brazil; 3Laboratory of Clinical Exercise Physiology, Division of Respiratory and Critical Care Medicine, Department of Medicine, Queen’s University, Kingston, ON, Canada; 4Department of Physical Therapy and Integrative Physiology Laboratory, College of Applied Health Sciences, University of Illinois Chicago, Chicago, IL, USA Background: In chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD, functional and structural impairment of lung function can negatively impact heart rate variability (HRV; however, it is unknown if static lung volumes and lung diffusion capacity negatively impacts HRV responses. We investigated whether impairment of static lung volumes and lung diffusion capacity could be related to HRV indices in patients with moderate to severe COPD. Methods: Sixteen sedentary males with COPD were enrolled in this study. Resting blood gases, static lung volumes, and lung diffusion capacity for carbon monoxide (DLCO were measured. The RR interval (RRi was registered in the supine, standing, and seated positions (10 minutes each and during 4 minutes of a respiratory sinus arrhythmia maneuver (M-RSA. Delta changes (Δsupine-standing and Δsupine-M-RSA of the standard deviation of normal RRi, low frequency (LF, normalized units [nu] and high frequency (HF [nu], SD1, SD2, alpha1, alpha2, and approximate entropy (ApEn indices were calculated. Results: HF, LF, SD1, SD2, and alpha1 deltas significantly correlated with forced expiratory volume in 1 second, DLCO, airway resistance, residual volume, inspiratory

  15. Empirical Research on the Interest Rate of RMB and Exchange Rate ---Based on nonlinear Smooth Transition Regression Model%基于 STR 模型的人民币汇率利率协调机制研究

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    王玉华; 惠晓峰; 李敦亮

    2014-01-01

    本文应用非线性平滑转换回归模型研究了2002年1月份到2011年12月份我国与美国、欧元区、日本、韩国等有效汇率指数、综合利差之间的关系。实证分析表明,汇率对利率的影响具有明显的非对称性,具有较强的非线性转移动态特征。分国别看,四个国家或地区之间的上期利差均是影响本期利差的重要因素;在短期内汇率对利率影响较大。因此,短期内人民币汇率弹性的扩大应该主动、逐步、稳定进行,防止人民币汇率弹性的急剧扩大导致利率的过度波动。其次,逐步有序加快利率市场化进程并加强与汇率市场化的配合,构建高效的汇率-利率联动机制。%In order to analyze the relationship of interest rate and effective exchange rate , this paper uses the Smooth Transition Regression Model and then chooses the monthly data of these two variables of China 、USA、Eu-rozone、Japan and Korea from Jan .2002 to Dec.2011.The results show that exchange rate has a nonlinear influ-ence on interest rate and obvious asymmetry .The last month interest rate and exchange rate have an important influence on interest rate in these four countries .Based on this , in order to prevent the flexibility of exchange rate surge caused by excessive fluctuations of the interest rate , we should progressively and stablely take the initi-ative to expand the flexibility of exchange rate in the short term .Secondly , we should gradually speed up the process of interest rate and exchange rate co-ordination liberalization ,and build an efficient linkage system .

  16. The First Attempt at Non-Linear in Silico Prediction of Sampling Rates for Polar Organic Chemical Integrative Samplers (POCIS)

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-01-01

    Modeling and prediction of polar organic chemical integrative sampler (POCIS) sampling rates (Rs) for 73 compounds using artificial neural networks (ANNs) is presented for the first time. Two models were constructed: the first was developed ab initio using a genetic algorithm (GSD-model) to shortlist 24 descriptors covering constitutional, topological, geometrical and physicochemical properties and the second model was adapted for Rs prediction from a previous chromatographic retention model (RTD-model). Mechanistic evaluation of descriptors showed that models did not require comprehensive a priori information to predict Rs. Average predicted errors for the verification and blind test sets were 0.03 ± 0.02 L d–1 (RTD-model) and 0.03 ± 0.03 L d–1 (GSD-model) relative to experimentally determined Rs. Prediction variability in replicated models was the same or less than for measured Rs. Networks were externally validated using a measured Rs data set of six benzodiazepines. The RTD-model performed best in comparison to the GSD-model for these compounds (average absolute errors of 0.0145 ± 0.008 L d–1 and 0.0437 ± 0.02 L d–1, respectively). Improvements to generalizability of modeling approaches will be reliant on the need for standardized guidelines for Rs measurement. The use of in silico tools for Rs determination represents a more economical approach than laboratory calibrations. PMID:27363449

  17. A Linear Programming Approach to Routing Control in Networks of Constrained Nonlinear Positive Systems with Concave Flow Rates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arneson, Heather M.; Dousse, Nicholas; Langbort, Cedric

    2014-01-01

    We consider control design for positive compartmental systems in which each compartment's outflow rate is described by a concave function of the amount of material in the compartment.We address the problem of determining the routing of material between compartments to satisfy time-varying state constraints while ensuring that material reaches its intended destination over a finite time horizon. We give sufficient conditions for the existence of a time-varying state-dependent routing strategy which ensures that the closed-loop system satisfies basic network properties of positivity, conservation and interconnection while ensuring that capacity constraints are satisfied, when possible, or adjusted if a solution cannot be found. These conditions are formulated as a linear programming problem. Instances of this linear programming problem can be solved iteratively to generate a solution to the finite horizon routing problem. Results are given for the application of this control design method to an example problem. Key words: linear programming; control of networks; positive systems; controller constraints and structure.

  18. Nonlinear dynamical behavior of the limited Explodator in a CSTR under square wave perturbation of the flow rate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Xiaomao; Schelly, Z. A.; Vastano, John A.

    1994-07-01

    Results of studies of the limited Explodator model in a continuous-flow stirred tank reactor (CSTR) under square wave perturbation of the flow rate are reported. The perturbation is applied in such a way that the system is alternately attracted to two different periodic attractors in the parameter region close the Hopf bifurcation point. The system is shown to display a variety of entrainment bands, birhythmicity, quasiperiodicity, resonance-like phenomenon, period doubling and intermittency routes to chaos, and a complicated window structure of the chaotic region. In addition, a novel phenomenon, “intermittent alternative laminar oscillations”, was observed in a chaotic regime sandwiched between two entrainment bands. Transient chaos occurs in one of the entrainment bands, which intimates chaos in the adjacent regime. Positive Lyapunov exponents were found to be associated with the chaotic behavior. The folding and stretching property of the chaotic attractors was analyzed through stroboscopic representations. The deterministic nature of the chaotic behavior was confirmed by the quadratic-like curve formed in the one-dimensional map.

  19. ABDOMINAL CLOSURE WITH ANTI BACTERIAL COATED SUTURE MATERIALS AND ITS RELATION TO THE INCIDENCE OF POST OPERATIVE SUPERFICIAL SURGICAL SITE INFECTION RATES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Josephine Pudumai Selvi

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND Surgical site infection (SSI is an immense burden on healthcare resources even in the modern era of immaculate sterilization approaches and highly effective antibiotics. An estimated 234 million various surgical procedures, involving skin incisions requiring various types of wound closure techniques, are performed in the world, with the majority resulting in a wound healing by primary intention. Triclosan (5-chloro-2-(2, 4-dichlorophenoxy phenol is a broad-spectrum bactericidal agent that has been used for more than 40 years in various products, such as toothpaste and soaps. Higher concentrations of Triclosan work as a bactericide by attacking different structures in the bacterial cytoplasm and cell membrane. Use of Triclosan-coated sutures should theoretically result in the reduction of SSI. The aim of the study is to assess the abdominal closure with antibacterial coated suture materials and its relation to the incidence of post-operative superficial surgical site infection rates. MATERIALS AND METHODS The data will be collected from hospital records of surgery performed, post-operative daily progress notes and outpatient folders and telephonic conversations with patients after discharge. All patients undergoing laparotomy procedure for any cause. 100 patients divided as 50 in each group. RESULTS The positive outcome of infection (21.5% in patients using ordinary sutures was significantly differed with the positive outcome of infection (11.4% of Triclosan coated sutures. CONCLUSION In conclusion since there was a definite advantage inferred to the patients by using Triclosan coated polyglactin 910, it is the opinion of the researcher that Triclosan coated sutures has a role to play in reducing SSI in clean wounds and its use should be confined to areas where its application has proven benefits. However more studies should be done to clearly define its role and indications in surgery.

  20. Handheld nonlinear microscope system comprising a 2 MHz repetition rate, mode-locked Yb-fiber laser for in vivo biomedical imaging.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krolopp, Ádám; Csákányi, Attila; Haluszka, Dóra; Csáti, Dániel; Vass, Lajos; Kolonics, Attila; Wikonkál, Norbert; Szipőcs, Róbert

    2016-09-01

    A novel, Yb-fiber laser based, handheld 2PEF/SHG microscope imaging system is introduced. It is suitable for in vivo imaging of murine skin at an average power level as low as 5 mW at 200 kHz sampling rate. Amplified and compressed laser pulses having a spectral bandwidth of 8 to 12 nm at around 1030 nm excite the biological samples at a ~1.89 MHz repetition rate, which explains how the high quality two-photon excitation fluorescence (2PEF) and second harmonic generation (SHG) images are obtained at the average power level of a laser pointer. The scanning, imaging and detection head, which comprises a conventional microscope objective for beam focusing, has a physical length of ~180 mm owing to the custom designed imaging telescope system between the laser scanner mirrors and the entrance aperture of the microscope objective. Operation of the all-fiber, all-normal dispersion Yb-fiber ring laser oscillator is electronically controlled by a two-channel polarization controller for Q-switching free mode-locked operation. The whole nonlinear microscope imaging system has the main advantages of the low price of the fs laser applied, fiber optics flexibility, a relatively small, light-weight scanning and detection head, and a very low risk of thermal or photochemical damage of the skin samples.

  1. Oral Administration of Faecalibacterium prausnitzii Decreased the Incidence of Severe Diarrhea and Related Mortality Rate and Increased Weight Gain in Preweaned Dairy Heifers.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carla Foditsch

    Full Text Available Probiotics are a promising alternative to improve food animal productivity and health. However, scientific evidence that specific microbes can be used to benefit animal health and performance is limited. The objective of this study was to evaluate the effects of administering a live culture of Faecalibacterium prausnitzii to newborn dairy calves on subsequent growth, health, and fecal microbiome. Initially, a safety trial was conducted using 30 newborn bull calves to assess potential adverse effects of the oral and rectal administration of F. prausnitzii to neonatal calves. No adverse reactions, such as increased body temperature or heart and respiratory rates, were observed after the administration of the treatments. All calves survived the experimental period, and there was no difference in fecal consistency score, attitude, appetite or dehydration between the treatment groups. The rectal route was not an efficient practice while the oral route ensures that the full dose is administered to the treated calves. Subsequently, a randomized field trial was completed in a commercial farm with preweaned calves. A total of 554 Holstein heifers were assigned to one of two treatment groups: treated calves (FPTRT and non-treated calves (control. Treated calves received two oral doses of F. prausnitzii, one at treatment assignment (1st week and another one week later. The FPTRT group presented significantly lower incidence of severe diarrhea (3.1% compared with the control group (6.8%. Treated calves also had lower mortality rate associated with severe diarrhea (1.5% compared to control calves (4.4%. Furthermore, FPTRT calves gained significantly more weight, 4.4 kg over the preweaning period, than controls calves. The relative abundance of F. prausnitzii in the fecal microbiota was significantly higher in the 3rd and 5th weeks of life of FPTRT calves than of the control calves, as revealed by sequencing of the 16S rRNA gene. Our findings showed that oral

  2. Incidence Angle Effect of Energetic Carbon Ions on Deposition Rate, Topography, and Structure of Ultrathin Amorphous Carbon Films Deposited by Filtered Cathodic Vacuum Arc

    KAUST Repository

    Wang, N.

    2012-07-01

    The effect of the incidence angle of energetic carbon ions on the thickness, topography, and structure of ultrathin amorphous carbon (a-C) films synthesized by filtered cathodic vacuum arc (FCVA) was examined in the context of numerical and experimental results. The thickness of a-C films deposited at different incidence angles was investigated in the light of Monte Carlo simulations, and the calculated depth profiles were compared with those obtained from high-resolution transmission electron microscopy (TEM). The topography and structure of the a-C films were studied by atomic force microscopy (AFM) and X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy (XPS), respectively. The film thickness decreased with the increase of the incidence angle, while the surface roughness increased and the content of tetrahedral carbon hybridization (sp 3) decreased significantly with the increase of the incidence angle above 45° , measured from the surface normal. TEM, AFM, and XPS results indicate that the smoothest and thinnest a-C films with the highest content of sp 3 carbon bonding were produced for an incidence angle of 45°. The findings of this study have direct implications in ultrahigh-density magnetic recording, where ultrathin and smooth a-C films with high sp 3 contents are of critical importance. © 2012 IEEE.

  3. Different morphological types of sella turcica and incidence rate of sella turcica bridge%蝶鞍的类型和鞍桥的发生率

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    郑博文; 边慧慧; 刘奕; 张扬

    2016-01-01

    蝶鞍位于颅窝中部,蝶骨体内表面,中部是垂体窝。蝶鞍是脑颅和颅面复合体的X线分析的重要结构,在正畸中,蝶鞍中心点是头影测量片上最常使用的标志点之一,被用来测量上下颌相对于颅骨的位置,以及上下颌之间的相对位置,研究这些结构有助于正畸医生诊断,并且可以通过纵向的结构叠加来研究个体的生长,也用来评估正畸治疗结果。临床医生应熟悉该领域的正常解剖影像学和形态学的变化,以便识别和研究可能反映的病理情况。该文就蝶鞍的类型和鞍桥发生率作一综述。%Sella turcica is located in the middle cranial fossa, on the surface of sphenoid body, and its center is the pituitary fossa. Sella turcica is an important structure in the neurocranial and craniofacial complex, which is often used in radiographic analysis. In or⁃thodontics, sella point which is located at the center of sella turcica, is regarded as one of the most commonly used landmarks in cepha⁃lometrics. These landmarks, located within the craniofacial region, are used to measure the positions of maxilla and mandible in relation to the cranium. Orthodontists can benefit from studying these structures in diagnosis, studying growth in individuals through superimpo⁃sition of structures on a longitudinal basis, and evaluating orthodontic treatment results. Sella area is an important region, and may have variation between individuals. Therefore, understanding normal iconography and morphology of sella turcica will help orthodontists rec⁃ognize the pathological problems in sella turcica. This article reviewed the types of sella turcica and incidence rate of sella turcica bridge.

  4. Stochastic modeling of the dynamics of incident-induced lane traffic states for incident-responsive local ramp control

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sheu, Jiuh-Biing

    2007-12-01

    Incident-induced traffic congestion has been recognized as a critical issue to solve in the development of advanced freeway incident management systems. This paper investigates the applicability of a stochastic optimal control approach to real-time incident-responsive local ramp control on freeways. The architecture of the proposed ramp control system embeds two primary functions including (1) real-time estimation of incident-induced lane traffic states and (2) dynamic prediction of ramp-metering rates in response to the changes of incident impacts. To accomplish the above two goals, a discrete-time nonlinear stochastic optimal control model is proposed, followed by the development of a recursive prediction algorithm. Based on the simulation data, the numerical results of model tests indicate that the proposed method permits relieving incident impacts particularly under low-volume and medium-volume conditions, relative to high-volume lane-blocking conditions. Particularly, the incident-induced queue lengths can be improved by 50.1% and 67.9%, compared to the existing ramp control and control-free strategies, respectively.

  5. Convergence of decreasing male and increasing female incidence rates in major tobacco-related cancers in Europe in 1988-2010

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    J. Lortet-Tieulent (J.); E. Renteria (Elisenda); L. Sharp; E. Weiderpass (Elisabete); H. Comber; P. Baas (Paul); F. Bray (Freddie); J.W.W. Coebergh (Jan Willem); I. Soerjomataram (Isabelle)

    2013-01-01

    textabstractIntroduction: Smoking prevalence has been declining in men all over Europe, while the trend varies in European regions among women. To study the impact of past smoking prevalence, we present a comprehensive overview of the most recent trends in incidence, during 1988-2010, in 26 countrie

  6. Increasing Incidence in Relapsing-Remitting MS and High Rates among Young Women in Finland: A Thirty-Year Follow-Up

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marja-Liisa Sumelahti

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Object. Gender and disease course specific incidences were studied in high- and medium-risk regions of MS in Finland. Methods. Age- and gender-specific incidences with 95% CIs were calculated in 10-year periods from 1981 to 2010. Poser diagnostic criteria were used and compared with the McDonald criteria from 2001 to 2010. Association between age and diagnostic delay over time was assessed by using the Kruskal-Wallis test. Results. 1419 (89% RRMS and 198 (11% PPMS cases were included. RRMS incidence increased with the female to male ratio (F/M from 4,2/105 (F/M 1.9 to 9,7 (2.3, while that of PPMS decreased from 1,2 (1.6 to 0,7 (1.2. The use of McDonald criteria did not change the conclusion. The decreasing diagnostic delay and age at diagnosis in RRMS were associated within the 10-year periods and contrasted those in PPMS. Increasing female risk in RRMS was observed in the high-risk region. Conclusion. Increasing RRMS incidence and high female ratios shown in each age group indicate gender-specific influences acting already from childhood. A more precise definition of the risk factors and their action in MS is needed to provide a better understanding of underlying pathological processes and a rationale for the development of new preventive and treatment strategies.

  7. Nonlinear optics

    CERN Document Server

    Bloembergen, Nicolaas

    1996-01-01

    Nicolaas Bloembergen, recipient of the Nobel Prize for Physics (1981), wrote Nonlinear Optics in 1964, when the field of nonlinear optics was only three years old. The available literature has since grown by at least three orders of magnitude.The vitality of Nonlinear Optics is evident from the still-growing number of scientists and engineers engaged in the study of new nonlinear phenomena and in the development of new nonlinear devices in the field of opto-electronics. This monograph should be helpful in providing a historical introduction and a general background of basic ideas both for expe

  8. Nonlinear supratransmission

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Geniet, F; Leon, J [Physique Mathematique et Theorique, CNRS-UMR 5825, 34095 Montpellier (France)

    2003-05-07

    A nonlinear system possessing a natural forbidden band gap can transmit energy of a signal with a frequency in the gap, as recently shown for a nonlinear chain of coupled pendulums (Geniet and Leon 2002 Phys. Rev. Lett. 89 134102). This process of nonlinear supratransmission, occurring at a threshold that is exactly predictable in many cases, is shown to have a simple experimental realization with a mechanical chain of pendulums coupled by a coil spring. It is then analysed in more detail. First we go to different (nonintegrable) systems which do sustain nonlinear supratransmission. Then a Josephson transmission line (a one-dimensional array of short Josephson junctions coupled through superconducting wires) is shown to also sustain nonlinear supratransmission, though being related to a different class of boundary conditions, and despite the presence of damping, finiteness, and discreteness. Finally, the mechanism at the origin of nonlinear supratransmission is found to be a nonlinear instability, and this is briefly discussed here.

  9. A situação do câncer de mama em Goiás, no Brasil e no mundo: tendências atuais para a incidência e a mortalidade Breast cancer in Goiás, in Brazil and in the World: current incidence and mortality rates

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Régis Resende Paulinelli

    2003-03-01

    Full Text Available O câncer de mama apresenta elevada incidência e mortalidade em todo o mundo, representando um grave problema de saúde pública. A incidência dessa neoplasia vem aumentando nas últimas décadas, mesmo em áreas de tradicional baixa incidência, em grande parte devido às mudanças nos hábitos de vida e no perfil epidemiológico da população. Vários países desenvolvidos têm conseguido, apesar desse aumento na incidência, reduzir a sua mortalidade, através de um diagnóstico mais precoce e de um tratamento mais eficaz. Nesse artigo comentamos as tendências atuais para o câncer de mama em vários locais do mundo, de forma comparativa, bem como os possíveis fatores envolvidos nessas mudanças. Dispensamos particular atenção à situação do Brasil, e da cidade de Goiânia.Breast cancer has the highest incidence and mortality rates in the whole World, and is a severe public health issue. This type of neoplasia has been increasing in the last decades, even in areas of traditional low incidence in part due to changes in the lifestyle and epidemiological profile of the population. Various developed countries, notwithstanding this incidence increase, have succeeded to reduce mortality through early diagnosis and more efficacious treatment. This paper compares current breast cancer trend in various parts of World, as well as the possible factors involved in this change of pattern. Especial emphasis is placed on the problem in our country Brazil, and in our city, Goiânia.

  10. Detecting nonlinearity and chaos in epidemic data

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ellner, S.; Gallant, A.R. [North Carolina State Univ., Raleigh, NC (United States). Dept. of Statistics; Theiler, J. [Santa Fe Inst., NM (United States)]|[Los Alamos National Lab., NM (United States)

    1993-08-01

    Historical data on recurrent epidemics have been central to the debate about the prevalence of chaos in biological population dynamics. Schaffer and Kot who first recognized that the abundance and accuracy of disease incidence data opened the door to applying a range of methods for detecting chaos that had been devised in the early 1980`s. Using attractor reconstruction, estimates of dynamical invariants, and comparisons between data and simulation of SEIR models, the ``case for chaos in childhood epidemics`` was made through a series of influential papers beginning in the mid 1980`s. The proposition that the precise timing and magnitude of epidemic outbreaks are deterministic but chaotic is appealing, since it raises the hope of finding determinism and simplicity beneath the apparently stochastic and complicated surface of the data. The initial enthusiasm for methods of detecting chaos in data has been followed by critical re-evaluations of their limitations. Early hopes of a ``one size fits all`` algorithm to diagnose chaos vs. noise in any data set have given way to a recognition that a variety of methods must be used, and interpretation of results must take into account the limitations of each method and the imperfections of the data. Our goals here are to outline some newer methods for detecting nonlinearity and chaos that have a solid statistical basis and are suited to epidemic data, and to begin a re-evaluation of the claims for nonlinear dynamics and chaos in epidemics using these newer methods. We also identify features of epidemic data that create problems for the older, better known methods of detecting chaos. When we ask ``are epidemics nonlinear?``, we are not questioning the existence of global nonlinearities in epidemic dynamics, such as nonlinear transmission rates. Our question is whether the data`s deviations from an annual cyclic trend (which would reflect global nonlinearities) are described by a linear, noise-driven stochastic process.

  11. Medication incidents reported to an online incident reporting system.

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    Alrwisan, Adel

    2011-01-15

    AIMS: Approximately 20% of deaths from adverse events are related to medication incidents, costing the NHS an additional £500 million annually. Less than 5% of adverse events are reported. This study aims to assess the reporting rate of medication incidents in NHS facilities in the north east of Scotland, and to describe the types and outcomes of reported incidents among different services. Furthermore, we wished to quantify the proportion of reported incidents according to the reporters\\' profession. METHODS: A retrospective description was made of medication incidents reported to an online reporting system (DATIX) over a 46-month-period (July 2005 to April 2009). Reports originated from acute and community hospitals, mental health, and primary care facilities. RESULTS: Over the study period there were 2,666 incidents reported with a mean monthly reporting rate of 78.2\\/month (SD±16.9). 6.1% of all incidents resulted in harm, with insulin being the most commonly implicated medication. Nearly three-quarters (74.2%, n=1,978) of total incidents originated from acute hospitals. Administration incidents were implicated in the majority of the reported medication incidents (59%), followed by prescribing (10.8%) and dispensing (9.9%), while the nondescript "other medication incidents" accounted for 20.3% of total incidents. The majority of reports were made by nursing and midwifery staff (80%), with medical and dental professionals reporting the lowest number of incidents (n=56, 2%). CONCLUSIONS: The majority of medication incidents in this study were reported by nursing and midwifery staff, and were due to administration incidents. There is a clear need to elucidate the reasons for the limited contribution of the medical and dental professionals to reporting medication incidents.

  12. Modelli non lineari per i tassi di cambio: un confronto previsivo con dati a diversa frequenza (The Performance of Nonlinear Exchange Rate Models: A Forecasting Comparison with Data at Different Frequencies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gianna Boero

    2000-12-01

    Full Text Available In recent years there has been a considerable development in modelling non-linearities and asymmetries in economic and financial variables. The aim of this work is to compare the forecasting performance of different models for the returns of some of the most traded exchange rates in terms of the US dollar, namely the French franc (FF/$, the German mark (DM/$ and the Japanese yen (Y/$. We compare the relative performance of some nonlinear models and contrast them with their linear counterparts. Although we find evidence of some forecasting gains from nonlinear models, the results are sensitive to the forecast horizon and to the metric adopted to measure the forecasting accuracy. The use of data at different frequencies allows us to evaluate the possible effects of temporal aggregation.

  13. The out-of-sample forecasting performance of non-linear models of real exchange rate behaviour: The case of the South African Rand

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aye, Goodness C.

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available This paper analyses the out-of-sample forecasting performance of non-linear vs. linear models for the South African rand against the United States dollar and the British pound, in real terms. We compare the forecasting performance of point, interval and density forecasts for non-linear Band-TAR and ESTAR models to linear autoregressive models. Our data spans from 1970:01 to 2012:07, and we found that there are no significant gains from using either the Band-TAR or ESTAR non-linear models, compared to the linear AR model in terms of out-of-sample forecasting performance, especially at short horizons. We draw similar conclusions to other literature, and find that for the South African rand against the United States dollar and British pound, non-linearities are too weak for Band-TAR and ESTAR models to estimate.

  14. Revisiting the concept of ‘chronic disease’ from the perspective of the episode of care model. Does the ratio of incidence to prevalence rate help us to define a problem as chronic?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jean K Soler

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available Background This is a study of the epidemiology of acute and chronic episodes of care (EoCs in the Transition Project in three countries. We studied the duration of EoCs for acute and chronic health problems and the relationship of incidence to prevalence rates for these EoCs.Method The Transition Project databases collect data on all elements of the doctor–patient encounter in family medicine. Family doctors code these elements using the International Classification of Primary Care.We used the data from three practice populations to study the duration of EoCs and the ratio of incidence to prevalence for common health problems.Results We found that chronic health problems tended to have proportionately longer duration EoCs, as expected, but also a lower incidence to prevalence rate ratio than acute health problems. Thus, the incidence to prevalence index could be used to define a chronic condition as one with a low ratio, below a defined threshold.Conclusions Chronic health problems tend to have longer duration EoCs, proportionately, across populations. This result is expected, but we found important similarities and differences which make defining a problem as chronic on the basis of time rather difficult. The ratio of incidence to prevalence rates has potential to categorise health problems into acute or chronic categories, at different ratio thresholds (such as 20, 30 or 50%. It seems to perform well in this study of three family practice populations, and is proposed to the scientific community for further evaluation.

  15. Nonlinear Heart Rate Dynamics in Off-pump Coronary Artery Bypass Grafting Patients and The Relevance with Atrial Fibrillation and Ventricular Tachycardia

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Wu Zhongkai; Yao Jianping; Huang Xiaodan; Jari Laurikka; Saila Vikman; Matti R. Tarkka

    2007-01-01

    Objectives To elucidate the clinical relevance of nonlinear HRV with postoperative arrhythmias in patients undergoing off-pump CABG. Methods Twenty-seven elective off-pump CABG patients were recruited in the present study. Atrial fibrillation (AF),ventricular tachycardia (VT), linear and nonlinear HRV were analysed using 24-hour electrocardiogram before and after surgery. Results All time domain (SDNN,pNN50 and rMSSD ), frequency domain (LF and HF)of linear measures of HRV variables and nonlinear measures of HRV variable, the short-term fractal-like correlation α1 decreased significantly after surgery. The postoperative nonlinear HRV variable α1 tended to be lower in patients with postoperative AF ( P = 0.056). Significant depressed α1 was found in patients with postoperative VT(P = 0.022 ). Elder patient's age and longer inotropic treatment time negatively correlated with postoperative α1. Conclusions Off-pump CABG procedures resulted in significant depressed of linear and nonlinear HRV variables. The depressed nonlinear HRV variables α1 related to age, inotropic supports and postoperative AF and VT.

  16. Nonlinear transmission of an intense terahertz field through monolayer graphene

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H. A. Hafez

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available We report nonlinear terahertz (THz effects in monolayer graphene, giving rise to transmission enhancement of a single-cycle THz pulse when the incident THz peak electric field is increased. This transmission enhancement is attributed to reduced photoconductivity, due to saturation effects in the field-induced current and increased intraband scattering rates arising from transient heating of electrons. We have developed a tight-binding model of the response using the length gauge interaction Hamiltonian that provides good qualitative agreement. The model fully accounts for the nonlinear response arising from the linear dispersion energy spectrum in graphene. The results reveal a strong dependence of the scattering time on the THz field, which is at the heart of the observed nonlinear response.

  17. Estimación de curvas de progreso de la incidencia de podredumbre blanca (Sclerotium cepivorum Berk. en cultivos de ajo mediante un modelo no lineal mixto Estimation of incidence progress curves of white rot (Sclerotium cepivorum Berk. in garlic crops using a nonlinear mixed model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Y. Conles

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available En este trabajo se modela la curva de progreso de la podredumbre blanca en cultivos de ajo, mediante modelos no lineales mixtos que contemplan el efecto de factores concomitantes en el desarrollo de las epidemias. Entre 2001 y 2003 en Cruz del Eje y Jesús María, Argentina, se evaluaron la densidad inicial de esclerocios (DIE y la incidencia de la enfermedad quincenalmente hasta cosecha. Con DIE alta (>15 esclerocios/100 g de suelo la incidencia final fue alta (64-100% y con DIE baja (≤15 esclerocios/100 g de suelo varió entre 0-100%. El modelo logístico mixto seleccionado tuvo “interceptos” y pendientes aleatorias y diferentes para cada combinación de “ambiente” (localidad y año y categoría de DIE (altas y bajas. La representación de las curvas epidémicas se hizo mediante tres curvas específicas de sitio, la típica con efecto aleatorio cero, que expresa la forma general del modelo y las percentiles Q1 (0,25 y Q3 (0,75 que expresan la variabilidad. El 50% de las curvas tuvo pendientes entre r±0,67 v. La variabilidad de los “interceptos” y pendientes dependió solamente de la DIE, y fue menor en los “interceptos” con DIE “altas” que en aquellos con DIE “bajas”; en las pendientes se observó el efecto opuesto.This paper models the progress curve of white rot in garlic crops using nonlinear mixed models taking into account the effect of concomitant factors in the development of epidemics. Between 2001 and 2003 in Cruz del Eje and Jesus Maria, Argentina, the initial density of sclerotia (DIE and the incidence of the disease were evaluated every two weeks until harvest. With DIE high (>15 sclerotia/100 g of soil the final incidence was high (64-100%, while with DIE low (≤15 g soil sclerotia/100 the final incidence ranged from 0-100%. The mixed logistic model that was selected had random “intercepts” and rates which were different for each combination of “environment” (location and year and DIE category

  18. Practical Nonlinearities

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-07-01

    Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA) Dynamics-Enabled Frequency Sources (DEFYS) program is focused on the convergence of nonlinear dynamics and...Early work in this program has shown that nonlinear dynamics can provide performance advantages. However, the pathway from initial results to...dependent nonlinear stiffness observed in these devices. This work is ongoing, and will continue through the final period of this program . Reference 9

  19. Assessment of the Effect of Fungicide and Seed Rate on the Incidence of Leaf Blast (Magnaphorthe Grisea, On the Growth of Foxtail Millet (Setaria Italica (L. P. BEAUV in North-eastern Nigeria

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Z. G. S. Turaki

    2014-02-01

    Full Text Available In 2007 a multilocational trial was conducted in a split-plot using randomized complete block University of Maiduguri and Gashua Farm station to assess the effects of fungicide and seed rate on the incidence of leaf blast (Magnaphorte grisea, on the growth and yield of foxtail millet in the Northeastern Nigeria. The results showed that the lowest disease incidence of 20.8% and 0.4% were recorded from 100% recorded significantly (P < 0.05 the highest disease incidence of 80.0% and 64.3% at Maiduguri and Gashua respectively. The highest plant height and panicle length were recorded from plants grown at fungicide seed treatment ranging from 80-100% at seed rate of 5.0kg/ha. The lowest plant height and panicle length were obtained from plants grown from the untreated seed tate of 12.5kg/ha and while the lowest grain yields were recorded from untreated seed rate of 5.0kg/h at Maiduguri and Gashua respectively.

  20. Spatio-temporal distribution of Aedes aegypti (Diptera: Culicidae mitochondrial lineages in cities with distinct dengue incidence rates suggests complex population dynamics of the dengue vector in Colombia.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jeiczon Jaimes-Dueñez

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available Aedes aegypti is the primary vector of the four serotypes of dengue virus (DENV1-4, Chikungunya and yellow fever virus to humans. Previous population genetic studies have revealed a particular genetic structure among the vector populations in the Americas that suggests differences in the ability to transmit DENV. In Colombia, despite its high epidemiologic importance, the genetic population structure and the phylogeographic depiction of Ae. aegypti, as well as its relationship with the epidemiologic landscapes in cities with heterogeneous incidence levels, remains unknown. We conducted a spatiotemporal analysis with the aim of determining the genetic structure and phylogeography of Colombian populations of Ae. aegypti among cities with different eco-epidemiologic characteristics with regard to DENV.Mitochondrial cytochrome oxidase C subunit 1 (COI--NADH dehydrogenase subunit 4 (ND4 genes were sequenced and analyzed from 341 adult mosquitoes collected during 2012 and 2013 in the Colombian cities of Bello, Riohacha and Villavicencio, which exhibit low, medium and high levels of incidence of DENV, respectively. The results demonstrated a low genetic differentiation over time and a high genetic structure between the cities due to changes in the frequency of two highly supported genetic groups. The phylogeographic analyses indicated that one group (associated with West African populations was found in all the cities throughout the sampling while the second group (associated with East African populations was found in all the samples from Bello and in only one sampling from Riohacha. Environmental factors such as the use of chemical insecticides showed a significant correlation with decreasing genetic diversity, indicating that environmental factors affect the population structure of Ae. aegypti across time and space in these cities.Our results suggest that two Ae. aegypti lineages are present in Colombia; one that is widespread and related to a West

  1. Spatio-Temporal Distribution of Aedes aegypti (Diptera: Culicidae) Mitochondrial Lineages in Cities with Distinct Dengue Incidence Rates Suggests Complex Population Dynamics of the Dengue Vector in Colombia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jaimes-Dueñez, Jeiczon; Arboleda, Sair; Triana-Chávez, Omar; Gómez-Palacio, Andrés

    2015-01-01

    Background Aedes aegypti is the primary vector of the four serotypes of dengue virus (DENV1-4), Chikungunya and yellow fever virus to humans. Previous population genetic studies have revealed a particular genetic structure among the vector populations in the Americas that suggests differences in the ability to transmit DENV. In Colombia, despite its high epidemiologic importance, the genetic population structure and the phylogeographic depiction of Ae. aegypti, as well as its relationship with the epidemiologic landscapes in cities with heterogeneous incidence levels, remains unknown. We conducted a spatiotemporal analysis with the aim of determining the genetic structure and phylogeography of Colombian populations of Ae. aegypti among cities with different eco-epidemiologic characteristics with regard to DENV. Methods/Findings Mitochondrial cytochrome oxidase C subunit 1 (COI) - NADH dehydrogenase subunit 4 (ND4) genes were sequenced and analyzed from 341 adult mosquitoes collected during 2012 and 2013 in the Colombian cities of Bello, Riohacha and Villavicencio, which exhibit low, medium and high levels of incidence of DENV, respectively. The results demonstrated a low genetic differentiation over time and a high genetic structure between the cities due to changes in the frequency of two highly supported genetic groups. The phylogeographic analyses indicated that one group (associated with West African populations) was found in all the cities throughout the sampling while the second group (associated with East African populations) was found in all the samples from Bello and in only one sampling from Riohacha. Environmental factors such as the use of chemical insecticides showed a significant correlation with decreasing genetic diversity, indicating that environmental factors affect the population structure of Ae. aegypti across time and space in these cities. Conclusions Our results suggest that two Ae. aegypti lineages are present in Colombia; one that is

  2. A meta-analysis for the effect of prophylactic GTN on the incidence of post-ERCP pancreatitis and on the successful rate of cannulation of bile ducts

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wang Chun-hui

    2010-07-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Glyceryl trinitrate (GTN has been shown to be able to relax the sphincter of Oddi (SO both in animals and humans. Theoretically, the use of these compounds during and after endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatgraphy (ERCP could relax the biliary and pancreatic sphincters, facilitating cannulation of common bile duct (CBD during the procedure, or minimizing potential pancreatic outflow obstruction after the procedure. However, clinical trials evaluating the protective effect of GTN on the post-endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatgraphy pancreatitis (PEP have yielded inconclusive results. This meta-analysis is to systematically assess the effect of prophylactic administration of glyceryl trinitrate (GTN on the prevention of PEP and the effect on the cannulation of bile ducts. Methods By searching PubMed (1966 to September 2009, CENTRAL (Cochrane Controlled trials Register; issue 3, 2009 and EMBASE.com (1984 to September 2009, two independent reviewers systematically identified prospective randomized controlled trials (RCTs detecting the effect of prophylactic GTN on the incidence of PEP and on the cannulation of bile ducts. A meta-analysis of these clinical trials was then performed. Results There are 55/899(6.1% patients suffering PEP in the treatment group versus 95/915(10.4% patients in the placebo group. The overall pooled risk of PEP was significantly lower in the GTN group than in the placebo group (OR 0.56, 95% CI: 0.40 to 0.79, p = 0.001. Subgroup analyses suggested that GTN administered by the sublingual form (OR 0.34,95% CI:0.16 to 0.75, p = 0.007 is more effective than transdermal route(OR 0.64,95% CI:0.40 to 1.01, p = 0.05, and the protective effect of GTN was far more obvious in the centers with high incidence of PEP (OR 0.40, 95% CI:0.24 to 0.67, p = 0.0006 than those centers with a low incidence of PEP (OR 0.75, 95% CI: 0.47 to 1.20, p = 0.22. Additionally, the meta-analysis suggests that GTN was not

  3. Nonlinear oscillations

    CERN Document Server

    Nayfeh, Ali Hasan

    1995-01-01

    Nonlinear Oscillations is a self-contained and thorough treatment of the vigorous research that has occurred in nonlinear mechanics since 1970. The book begins with fundamental concepts and techniques of analysis and progresses through recent developments and provides an overview that abstracts and introduces main nonlinear phenomena. It treats systems having a single degree of freedom, introducing basic concepts and analytical methods, and extends concepts and methods to systems having degrees of freedom. Most of this material cannot be found in any other text. Nonlinear Oscillations uses sim

  4. Nonlinear Science

    CERN Document Server

    Yoshida, Zensho

    2010-01-01

    This book gives a general, basic understanding of the mathematical structure "nonlinearity" that lies in the depths of complex systems. Analyzing the heterogeneity that the prefix "non" represents with respect to notions such as the linear space, integrability and scale hierarchy, "nonlinear science" is explained as a challenge of deconstruction of the modern sciences. This book is not a technical guide to teach mathematical tools of nonlinear analysis, nor a zoology of so-called nonlinear phenomena. By critically analyzing the structure of linear theories, and cl

  5. Nonlinear analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Nanda, Sudarsan

    2013-01-01

    "Nonlinear analysis" presents recent developments in calculus in Banach space, convex sets, convex functions, best approximation, fixed point theorems, nonlinear operators, variational inequality, complementary problem and semi-inner-product spaces. Nonlinear Analysis has become important and useful in the present days because many real world problems are nonlinear, nonconvex and nonsmooth in nature. Although basic concepts have been presented here but many results presented have not appeared in any book till now. The book could be used as a text for graduate students and also it will be useful for researchers working in this field.

  6. Estimación de la Incidencia de Cáncer de Tiroides en Capital Federal y el Gran Buenos Aires (período 2003-2011 Incidences Rates of Thyroid Cancer in Buenos Aires (2003-2011

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eduardo N Faure

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available La incidencia del cáncer de tiroides ha aumentado significativamente en las últimas décadas en el resto del mundo. En Argentina no existe un registro nacional de cáncer por lo que la incidencia del mismo no puede establecerse. Por lo tanto, nuestro objetivo fue estimar la incidencia de cáncer de tiroides en la población de la Ciudad Autánoma de Buenos aires y Gran Buenos Aires así como la relación por género y la histología en el período de 2003 hasta 2011. Asumiendo que la población de afiliados a la Obra Social de la Policía Federal Argentina es representativa de los habitantes de Buenos Aires y el conurbano calculamos que la incidencia es de 6,51 casos/100.000 habitantes/año, con un incremento en 25 años mayor al doble, con predominio del carcinoma papilar frente al folicular.Thyroid cancer incidence has significantly risen worldwide in the last decades. In Argentina, there is no national cancer registry; therefore its incidence can not be established. The objective of this study was to estimate the incidence of thyroid cancer in the population of Buenos Aires City and suburbs, and the relationship between gender and histology over the period 2003-2011. Assuming that the population affiliated to the Social Security of the Argentine Federal Police is representative of the inhabitants of Buenos Aires City and suburbs, we estimate an incidence of 6.51 cases/100,000 population/year, with an increasing incidence of almost double from 1981-1986 to 2003-2011. An increase in papillary thyroid cancer was mainly responsible for this rising trend. Incidence rates were higher for females (11.76/100,000 women compared to those for males (2.65/100,000 men. Among men and women of all ages, the highest rate of incidence was for tumor size < 1 cm.

  7. [Critical incidents].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scheidegger, D

    2005-03-01

    In medicine real severe mishaps are rare. On the other hand critical incidents are frequent. Anonymous critical incident reporting systems allow us to learn from these mishaps. This learning process will make our daily clinical work safer Unfortunately, before these systems can be used efficiently our professional culture has to be changed. Everyone in medicine has to admit that errors do occur to see the need for an open discussion. If we really want to learn from errors, we cannot punish the individual, who reported his or her mistake. The interest is primarily in what has happened and why it has happened and not who has committed this mistake. The cause for critical incidents in medicine is in over 80% the human factor Poor communication, work under enormous stress, conflicts and hierarchies are the main cause. This has been known for many years, therefore have already 15 years ago high-tech industries, like e.g. aviation, started to invest in special courses on team training. Medicine is a typical profession were until now only the individual performance decided about the professional career Communication, conflict management, stress management, decision making, risk management, team and team resource management were subjects that have never been taught during our preor postgraduate education. These points are the most important ones for an optimal teamwork. A multimodular course designed together with Swissair (Human Aspect Development medical, HADmedical) helps to cover, as in aviation, the soft factor and behavioural education in medicine and to prepare professionals in health care to work as a real team.

  8. Cancer incidence rate after diagnostic X-ray exposure in 1976-2003 among patients of a university children's hospital; Inzidenz von Kinderkrebs nach Roentgendiagnostik im Patientenkollektiv der Jahre 1976-2003 einer Universitaets-Kinderklinik

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hammer, G.P.; Zeeb, H.; Blettner, M. [Mainz Univ. (DE). Inst. fuer Medizinische Biometrie, Epidemiologie und Informatik (IMBEI); Seidenbusch, M.C.; Schneider, K. [Klinikum der Univ. Muenchen, Dr. von Haunersches Kinderspital (Germany). Abt. Radiologie; Regulla, D. [Helmholtz Zentrum Muenchen - Deutsches Forschungszentrum fuer Gesundheit und Umwelt, Neuherberg (Germany). Inst. fuer Strahlenschutz; Spix, C. [Mainz Univ. (Germany). Deutsches Kinderkrebsregister

    2010-05-15

    Purpose: Although the carcinogenic effect of ionizing radiation is well known, knowledge gaps persist on the health effects of low-dose radiation, especially in children. The cancer incidence rate in a cohort of 92,957 children diagnosed using X-rays in the years 1976-2003 in the radiology department of a large university clinic was studied. Materials and Methods: Individual radiation doses per examination were reconstructed using an algorithm taking into account the dose area product and other exposure parameters together with conversion factors computed specifically for the equipment and protocols used in the radiology department. Incident cancer cases in the period 1980-2006 were identified via record linkage to the German Childhood Cancer Registry using pseudonymized data. Results: A total of 87 cancers occurred in the cohort between 1980 and 2006: 33 leukemia, 13 lymphoma, 10 brain tumors, and 31 other tumors. The standardized incidence ratio (SIR) for all cancers was 0.99 (95 % CI: 0.79 1.22). A dose-response relationship was not observed for all cancers, leukemia and lymphoma or solid tumors. The cancer risks for boys and girls did not differ. Conclusion: No increase in the cancer incidence risk in relation to very low doses of diagnostic ionizing radiation was observed in this study. However, the results are compatible with a broad range of risk estimates. (orig.)

  9. Modelli non lineari per i tassi di cambio: un confronto previsivo con dati a diversa frequenza (The Performance of Nonlinear Exchange Rate Models: A Forecasting Comparison with Data at Different Frequencies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gianna Boero

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available In recent years there has been a considerable development in modelling non-linearities and asymmetries in economic and financial variables. The aim of this work is to compare the forecasting performance of different models for the returns of some of the most traded exchange rates in terms of the US dollar, namely the French franc (FF/$, the German mark (DM/$ and the Japanese yen (Y/$. We compare the relative performance of some nonlinear models and contrast them with their linear counterparts. Although we find evidence of some forecasting gains from nonlinear models, the results are sensitive to the forecast horizon and to the metric adopted to measure the forecasting accuracy. The use of data at different frequencies allows us to evaluate the possible effects of temporal aggregation.       JEL Codes: F31, F37, C53Keywords: Exchange Rates, Forecasting, Modeling

  10. Suicidal ideation and suicide attempts in children and adolescents with bipolar disorder: a systematic review of prevalence and incidence rates, risk factors, and targeted interventions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hauser, Marta; Galling, Britta; Correll, Christoph U

    2013-01-01

    Objective Pediatric bipolar disorder (PBD) is associated with poor outcomes, including suicidal ideation (SI) and suicide attempt (SA). However, frequencies and risk factors of SI/SA and targeted intervention trials for SI/SA in PBD have not been reviewed systematically. Methods We conducted a systematic PubMed review, searching for articles reporting on prevalences/incidences, correlates and intervention studies targeting SI/SA in PBD. Weighted means were calculated, followed by an exploratory meta-regression of SI and SA correlates. Results Fourteen studies (n = 1,595) with 52.1% males aged 14.4 years reported data on SI/SA prevalence (N = 13, n = 1,508) and/or correlates (N = 10, n = 1,348) in PBD. Weighted mean prevalences were: past SI = 57.4%, past SA = 21.3%, current SI = 50.4%, and current SA = 25.5%; incidences (mean: 42 months follow-up were: SI = 14.6% and SA = 14.7%. Regarding significant correlates, SI (N = 3) was associated with a higher percentage of Caucasian race, narrow (as opposed to broad) PBD phenotype, younger age, and higher quality of life than SA. Significant correlates of SA (N = 10) included female gender, older age, earlier illness onset, more severe/episodic PBD, mixed episodes, comorbid disorders, past self-injurious behavior/SI/SA, physical/sexual abuse, parental depression, family history of suicidality, and poor family functioning. Race, socioeconomic status, living situation, and life events were not clearly associated with SA. In a meta-regression analysis, bipolar I disorder and comorbid attention-deficit hyperactivity disorder were significantly associated with SA. Only one open label study targeting the reduction of SI/SA in PBD was identified. Conclusions SI and SA are highly common but under-investigated in PBD. Exploration of predictors and protective factors is imperative for the establishment of effective preventive and intervention strategies, which are urgently needed. PMID:23829436

  11. Relating annual migration from high tuberculosis burden country of origin to changes in foreign-born tuberculosis notification rates in low-medium incidence European countries.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hanway, Aidan; Comiskey, Catherine M; Tobin, Katy; O'Toole, Ronan F

    2016-12-01

    The level of immigration from high tuberculosis (TB) burden countries (HBCs) which impacts on the foreign-born TB notification rate is largely unknown. In this work, we performed a cross-sectional analysis of epidemiological data from 2000 to 2013 from nine European countries: Austria, Denmark, Finland, Hungary, Netherlands, Norway, Spain, Sweden, and the United Kingdom. Crude notification rates were calculated for foreign- and native-born populations and a multiple-linear regression model predicting notification rates with HBC population data was generated. From 2000 to 2013, the population percentage with a foreign birthplace increased on average each year in all nine countries, ranging from +0.11%/year in the Netherlands to +0.66%/year in Spain. An annual increase in HBC migrants above +0.43% per year (95% Confidence Interval: 0.24%-0.63%) corresponded with higher TB notification rates in the foreign-born population of the countries analyzed. This indicates that migration from HBCs can exert a measurable effect on the foreign-born TB notification rate. However, an increase in the foreign-born TB notification rate coincided with an average annual rise in national TB notification rates only in countries, Norway (+3.85%/year) and Sweden (+2.64%/year), which have a high proportion (>80%) of TB cases that are foreign-born.

  12. Incidence rate and spatio-temporal clustering of type 1 diabetes in Santiago, Chile, from 1997 to 1998 Taxa de incidência e agrupamento espaço-temporal de diabetes tipo 1 em Santiago, Chile, de 1997 a 1998

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    JL Santos

    2001-02-01

    Full Text Available OBJECTIVE: To estimate the incidence rate of type 1 diabetes in the urban area of Santiago, Chile, from March 21, 1997 to March 20, 1998, and to assess the spatio-temporal clustering of cases during that period. METHODS: All sixty-one incident cases were located temporally (day of diagnosis and spatially (place of residence in the area of study. Knox's method was used to assess spatio-temporal clustering of incident cases. RESULTS: The overall incidence rate of type 1 diabetes was 4.11 cases per 100,000 children aged less than 15 years per year (95% confidence interval: 3.06--5.14. The incidence rate seems to have increased since the last estimate of the incidence calculated for the years 1986--1992 in the metropolitan region of Santiago. Different combinations of space-time intervals have been evaluated to assess spatio-temporal clustering. The smallest p-value was found for the combination of critical distances of 750 meters and 60 days (uncorrected p-value = 0.048. CONCLUSIONS: Although these are preliminary results regarding space-time clustering in Santiago, exploratory analysis of the data method would suggest a possible aggregation of incident cases in space-time coordinates.OBJETIVO: Estimar a taxa de incidência de diabetes tipo 1 na área urbana de Santiago, Chile, entre os dias 21 de março de 1997 e 20 de março 1998, assim como a avaliação do agrupamento espaço-temporal dos casos incidentes no período. MÉTODOS: Foram localizados 61 casos incidentes no tempo (dia do diagnóstico e no espaço (lugar de residência na área do estudo. O método de Knox foi usado para avaliar o agrupamento dos casos no espaço e no tempo. RESULTADOS: A taxa de diabetes tipo 1 foi estimada em 4,11 casos por 100.000 menores de 15 anos por ano (Intervalo de confiança 95%: 3,06 -- 5,14. Essa taxa de incidência parece ter aumentado desde a última estimativa realizada na região metropolitana de Santiago, nos anos 1986-1992. Foram constru

  13. Suicidal ideation and suicide attempts in children and adolescents with bipolar disorder: a systematic review of prevalence and incidence rates, correlates, and targeted interventions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hauser, Marta; Galling, Britta; Correll, Christoph U

    2013-08-01

    Pediatric bipolar disorder (PBD) is associated with poor outcomes, including suicidal ideation (SI) and suicide attempt (SA). However, frequencies and risk factors of SI/SA and targeted intervention trials for SI/SA in PBD have not been reviewed systematically. We conducted a systematic PubMed review, searching for articles reporting on prevalences/incidences, correlates and intervention studies targeting SI/SA in PBD. Weighted means were calculated, followed by an exploratory meta-regression of SI and SA correlates. Fourteen studies (n = 1595), in which 52.1% of patients were male and the mean age was 14.4 years, reported data on SI/SA prevalence (N = 13, n = 1508) and/or correlates (N = 10, n = 1348) in PBD. Weighted mean prevalences were: past SI = 57.4%, past SA = 21.3%, current SI = 50.4%, and current SA = 25.5%; incidences (mean 42 months of follow-up) were: SI = 14.6% and SA = 14.7%. Regarding significant correlates, SI (N = 3) was associated with a higher percentage of Caucasian race, narrow (as opposed to broad) PBD phenotype, younger age, and higher quality of life than SA. Significant correlates of SA (N = 10) included female sex, older age, earlier illness onset, more severe/episodic PBD, mixed episodes, comorbid disorders, past self-injurious behavior/SI/SA, physical/sexual abuse, parental depression, family history of suicidality, and poor family functioning. Race, socioeconomic status, living situation, and life events were not clearly associated with SA. In a meta-regression analysis, bipolar I disorder and comorbid attention-deficit hyperactivity disorder were significantly associated with SA. Only one open label study targeting the reduction of SI/SA in PBD was identified. SI and SA are very common but under-investigated in PBD. Exploration of predictors and protective factors is imperative for the establishment of effective preventive and intervention strategies, which are urgently needed. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley

  14. Interrater reliability of the National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale: rating by neurologists and nurses in a community-based stroke incidence study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dewey, H M; Donnan, G A; Freeman, E J; Sharples, C M; Macdonell, R A; McNeil, J J; Thrift, A G

    1999-01-01

    The reliability of the National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale (NIHSS) for use by trained neurologists in clinical trials of acute stroke has been established in several hospital-based studies. However, it also has the potential for application in community-based settings and to be used by nonneurologists: issues which have not been explored before. Hence, we aimed to determine the reliability of the NIHSS when administered by research nurses within the existing North Eastern Melbourne Stroke Incidence Study. Using the NIHSS, thirty-one consecutively registered stroke patients were assessed by 2 neurologists and 1 of 2 trained research nurses. The interrater reliability of observations was compared using weighted and unweighted kappa statistics and intraclass correlation coefficients (ICC). There was a high level of agreement for total scores between the 2 neurologists (ICC = 0.95) and between each neurologist and research nurse (ICC = 0.92 and 0.96). While there was moderate to excellent agreement among neurologists and research nurse (weighted kappa > 0.4) for the majority of the NIHSS items, there was poor agreement for the component 'limb ataxia'. Overall, agreement between nurse and neurologist for individual items was not significantly different from agreement between neurologists. It appears that in both hospital and community settings, trained research nurses can administer the NIHSS with a reliability similar to stroke-trained neurologists. This ability could be used to advantage in large community-based trials and epidemiological studies.

  15. Nonlinear Reconstruction

    CERN Document Server

    Zhu, Hong-Ming; Pen, Ue-Li; Chen, Xuelei; Yu, Hao-Ran

    2016-01-01

    We present a direct approach to non-parametrically reconstruct the linear density field from an observed non-linear map. We solve for the unique displacement potential consistent with the non-linear density and positive definite coordinate transformation using a multigrid algorithm. We show that we recover the linear initial conditions up to $k\\sim 1\\ h/\\mathrm{Mpc}$ with minimal computational cost. This reconstruction approach generalizes the linear displacement theory to fully non-linear fields, potentially substantially expanding the BAO and RSD information content of dense large scale structure surveys, including for example SDSS main sample and 21cm intensity mapping.

  16. Nonlinear optics

    CERN Document Server

    Boyd, Robert W

    2013-01-01

    Nonlinear Optics is an advanced textbook for courses dealing with nonlinear optics, quantum electronics, laser physics, contemporary and quantum optics, and electrooptics. Its pedagogical emphasis is on fundamentals rather than particular, transitory applications. As a result, this textbook will have lasting appeal to a wide audience of electrical engineering, physics, and optics students, as well as those in related fields such as materials science and chemistry.Key Features* The origin of optical nonlinearities, including dependence on the polarization of light* A detailed treatment of the q

  17. 妊娠期营养干预对降低巨大儿发生率和剖宫产率的影响%Effect of nutritional intervention during pregnancy on reducing the incidence rate of macrosomia and cesarean section rate

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    吕雁; 苏莉; 邓笑容

    2017-01-01

    Objective To explore the effect of nutritional intervention during pregnancy on reducing the incidence rate of macrosomia and cesarean section rate.Methods A total of 6 150 pregnant women who received maternal health care services in the hospital from January 2013 to October 2016 were randomly selected as observation group.A total of 3 270 pregnant women who did not receive any professional nutritional intervention in the hospital during the same period were selected as control group.Cesarean section rates,the incidence rates of macrosomia,cesarean section rates of macrosomia,and the incidence rates of pregnancy complications in the two groups were compared.Resuits There were statistically significant differences in cesarean section rate,the incidence rate of macrosomia,and cesarean section rate of macrosomia between the two groups (P<0.05).There were statistically significant differences in the incidence rates of premature rupture of membranes,cephalopelvic disproportion,fetal distress,neonatal asphyxia,and postpartum hemorrhage between the two groups (P<0.05).There were statistically significant differences in the incidence rates of hypertensive disorder complicating pregnancy (HDCP) and gestational diabetes mellitus between the two groups.Conclusion Nutritional intervention during pregnancy can significantly reduce the incidence rate of macrosomia,cesarean section rate of macrosomia,incidence rates of pregnancy and delivery complications,so it can significantly improve pregnancy outcomes.%目的 探讨妊娠期营养干预对降低巨大儿发生率和剖宫产率的影响.方法 随机选取2013年1月-2016年10月该院接受孕产妇保健服务的6 150例孕妇作为观察组.另选取同期在该院住院待产的未接受任何专业妊娠期营养干预的3 270例孕妇作为对照组.比较两组孕妇总体剖宫产率、巨大儿发生率、巨大儿剖宫产率及妊娠期合并症发生率等.结果 两组总体剖宫产率、巨大儿发生率

  18. Lightning incidents in Mongolia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Myagmar Doljinsuren

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available This is one of the first studies that has been conducted in Mongolia on the distribution of lightning incidents. The study covers a 10-year period from 2004 to 2013. The country records a human death rate of 15.4 deaths per 10 million people per year, which is much higher than that of many countries with similar isokeraunic level. The reason may be the low-grown vegetation observed in most rural areas of Mongolia, a surface topography, typical to steppe climate. We suggest modifications to Gomes–Kadir equation for such countries, as it predicts a much lower annual death rate for Mongolia. The lightning incidents spread over the period from May to August with the peak of the number of incidents occurring in July. The worst lightning affected region in the country is the central part. Compared with impacts of other convective disasters such as squalls, thunderstorms and hail, lightning stands as the second highest in the number of incidents, human deaths and animal deaths. Economic losses due to lightning is only about 1% of the total losses due to the four extreme weather phenomena. However, unless precautionary measures are not promoted among the public, this figure of losses may significantly increase with time as the country is undergoing rapid industrialization at present.

  19. Suicide in Recent Onset Psychosis Revisited: Significant Reduction of Suicide Rate over the Last Two Decades - A Replication Study of a Dutch Incidence Cohort.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stynke Castelein

    Full Text Available This study aims to compare the suicide risk over the past decade following recent onset psychosis to findings from the eighties and nineties in the same catchment area and to identify predictors of suicide in the context of the Psychosis Recent Onset Groningen-Survey (PROGR-S. A medical file search was carried out to determine the current status of all patients admitted between 2000 and 2009. The suicide rate was compared with a study executed in 1973-1988 in the same catchment area. Predictors of suicide were investigated using Cox regression. The status of 424 of the 614 patients was known in July 2014. Suicide occurred in 2.4% of patients with psychosis disorders (n = 10; mean follow-up 5.6 years; 6 out of 10 suicides took place within two years. Within two decades, the suicide rate dropped from 11% (follow-up 15 years, 8.5% after 5 years to 2.4%. The Standardized Mortality Rate (SMR of suicides compared with the general population was 41.6. A higher age was the only significant predictor for suicide. Neuroticism, living situation, disorganized and negative symptoms, and passive coping style all showed a trend for significance. A significant reduction in the suicide rate was found for people with psychosis over the past decades. Given the high SMR, suicide research should be given the highest priority. Identifying predictors may contribute to further reduction of suicide among patients with psychosis.

  20. Nonlinear Multiantenna Detection Methods

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chen Sheng

    2004-01-01

    Full Text Available A nonlinear detection technique designed for multiple-antenna assisted receivers employed in space-division multiple-access systems is investigated. We derive the optimal solution of the nonlinear spatial-processing assisted receiver for binary phase shift keying signalling, which we refer to as the Bayesian detector. It is shown that this optimal Bayesian receiver significantly outperforms the standard linear beamforming assisted receiver in terms of a reduced bit error rate, at the expense of an increased complexity, while the achievable system capacity is substantially enhanced with the advent of employing nonlinear detection. Specifically, when the spatial separation expressed in terms of the angle of arrival between the desired and interfering signals is below a certain threshold, a linear beamformer would fail to separate them, while a nonlinear detection assisted receiver is still capable of performing adequately. The adaptive implementation of the optimal Bayesian detector can be realized using a radial basis function network. Two techniques are presented for constructing block-data-based adaptive nonlinear multiple-antenna assisted receivers. One of them is based on the relevance vector machine invoked for classification, while the other on the orthogonal forward selection procedure combined with the Fisher ratio class-separability measure. A recursive sample-by-sample adaptation procedure is also proposed for training nonlinear detectors based on an amalgam of enhanced -means clustering techniques and the recursive least squares algorithm.

  1. Clinical effect of intermittent nasal feeding on reducing incidence rates of aspiration pneumonia%间歇鼻饲法降低机械通气患者吸入性肺炎发病的临床研究

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    孙丰静

    2012-01-01

    Objective To analyze the effect of treatment of intermittent nasal feeding on reducing incidence rates of aspiration pneumonia.Methods A total of 70 patients with mechanical ventilation were divided randomly into observation group and control group,35 cases were in each group.Patients in observation group were given nutrition of intermittent nasal feeding with treatment of massage in a clockwise direction.Absolutely nutrition by nose feeding was given in control group.Results Incidence rates ofvomiting,gastroesophageal reflux,cough,suffocation,diarrhea,aspiration pneumonia in observation were lower than those in control group. Conclusions Treatment of intermittent nasal feeding with treatment of massage may reduce incidence rate of aspiration pneumonia.%目的 探讨机械通气患者间歇鼻饲和持续鼻饲与吸入性肺炎的关系.方法 将70例机械通气患者随机分为观察组和对照组各35例,观察组输入营养液采用间歇鼻饲,每次鼻饲1h后由护士于腹部顺结肠方向间歇性环形按摩,对照组采用持续鼻饲.结果 观察组的呕吐、返流、呛咳、憋闷、腹泻、吸入性肺炎的发生率低于对照组.结论 对接受机械通气的患者进行肠内营养支持时,采用间歇鼻饲对减少吸入性肺炎发生明显优于持续鼻饲.

  2. 心房颤动导管消融相关无症状脑梗塞发生率Meta分析%Meta-analysis for the Incidence Rate of Asymptomatic Cerebral Embolism in Patients With Atrial Fibrillation After Catheter Ablation

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    韩全乐; 王桂苹; 刘书旺; 刘晓堃; 张琦; 张华; 王晓晓

    2015-01-01

      结论:房颤导管消融相关无症状脑梗塞发生率处在一个较高水平,是房颤导管消融以降低栓塞事件过程中必须面对的一个严峻问题,应得到更多关注,并采取相应的干预措施。%Objective: To generally assess the incidence rate of asymptomatic cerebral embolism in patients with atrial ifbrillation (AF) after catheter ablation by Meta-analysis in order to provide the basic information for cerebral embolism prevention. Methods: We systemically searched the publications of PubMed, Springer, Elsevier-SDOL, EMbase, SSCI, VIP, Chinese biomedical literature database (CBM), Chinese journal full-text database (CNKI), Wanfang data resource, Chinese outstanding master’s degree thesis database and Chinese important articles published in full-text database from 2006 to 2014 for the literatures regarding the asymptomatic cerebral embolism in AF patients after catheter ablation. The literature quality was evaluated by Loney criteria, Meta-analysis was conducted by R software to assess the incidence rate of asymptomatic cerebral embolism after ablation, the impact of type and quality for research were estimated by sensitivity analysis. Results: A total of 16 qualiifed literatures were enrolled in our research with 1258 patients. The incidence rate of asymptomatic cerebral embolism in AF patients after ablation was 17.46% (95% CI 13.13% - 22.84%). The sensitivity analysis indicated that excluding the literature at the lowest quality and the literature only with the part of age group, the Meta-analysis result had no obvious changes. Conclusion: The asymptomatic cerebral embolism in AF patients after ablation is at a relatively high prevalence condition, it should be seriously emphasized and with the active intervention in clinical practice.

  3. 狂犬病发病率增高原因剖析及护理对策%Cause analysis of and nursing strategies for the increased incidence rate of Rabies

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    冉海燕

    2012-01-01

    目的 分析狂犬病发病率上升因素,探讨有效预防途径.方法 回顾性分析护理34例狂犬病患者的临床资料,总结加强狂犬病预防工作的相关对策.结果 95.26%的病例被犬致伤感染,潜伏期3周~2月,未接种疫苗病例死亡率100%.结论 狂犬病发病率近年来又呈增高趋势,加强以健康教育为主的综合性护理是控制狂犬病发病率上升的主要预防措施.%Objective To analyze the causes of increased incidence rate of rabies and explore effective preventive measures. Methods The clinical data of 34 rabies patients were retrospectively analyzed and related countermeasures for rabies prevention were also summarized. Results 95. 26% of rabies patients led to infection with an incubation period of 3 weeks to 2 months,and a 100% mortality rate was found when no vaccination was conducted. Conclusion The incidence rate of rabies tend to increase in recent years. Thus comprehensive nursing based on health education is the main preventive measure to control it.

  4. Presence of animal feeding operations and community socioeconomic factors impact salmonellosis incidence rates: An ecological analysis using data from the Foodborne Diseases Active Surveillance Network (FoodNet), 2004-2010.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shaw, Kristi S; Cruz-Cano, Raul; Jiang, Chengsheng; Malayil, Leena; Blythe, David; Ryan, Patricia; Sapkota, Amy R

    2016-10-01

    Nontyphoidal Salmonella spp. are a leading cause of foodborne illness. Risk factors for salmonellosis include the consumption of contaminated chicken, eggs, pork and beef. Agricultural, environmental and socioeconomic factors also have been associated with rates of Salmonella infection. However, to our knowledge, these factors have not been modeled together at the community-level to improve our understanding of whether rates of salmonellosis are variable across communities defined by differing factors. To address this knowledge gap, we obtained data on culture-confirmed Salmonella Typhimurium, S. Enteritidis, S. Newport and S. Javiana cases (2004-2010; n=14,297) from the Foodborne Diseases Active Surveillance Network (FoodNet), and socioeconomic, environmental and agricultural data from the 2010 Census of Population and Housing, the 2011 American Community Survey, and the 2007 U.S. Census of Agriculture. We linked data by zip code and derived incidence rate ratios using negative binomial regressions. Multiple community-level factors were associated with salmonellosis rates; however, our findings varied by state. For example, in Georgia (Incidence Rate Ratio (IRR)=1.01; 95% Confidence Interval (CI)=1.005-1.015) Maryland (IRR=1.01; 95% CI=1.003-1.015) and Tennessee (IRR=1.01; 95% CI=1.002-1.012), zip codes characterized by greater rurality had higher rates of S. Newport infections. The presence of broiler chicken operations, dairy operations and cattle operations in a zip code also was associated with significantly higher rates of infection with at least one serotype in states that are leading producers of these animal products. For instance, in Georgia and Tennessee, rates of S. Enteritidis infection were 48% (IRR=1.48; 95% CI=1.12-1.95) and 46% (IRR=1.46; 95% CI=1.17-1.81) higher in zip codes with broiler chicken operations compared to those without these operations. In Maryland, New Mexico and Tennessee, higher poverty levels in zip codes were associated with

  5. Nonlinear optimization

    CERN Document Server

    Ruszczynski, Andrzej

    2011-01-01

    Optimization is one of the most important areas of modern applied mathematics, with applications in fields from engineering and economics to finance, statistics, management science, and medicine. While many books have addressed its various aspects, Nonlinear Optimization is the first comprehensive treatment that will allow graduate students and researchers to understand its modern ideas, principles, and methods within a reasonable time, but without sacrificing mathematical precision. Andrzej Ruszczynski, a leading expert in the optimization of nonlinear stochastic systems, integrates t

  6. 高龄老人代谢综合征的发病率及危险因素分析%Analysis of incidence rate and risk factors of metabolic syndrome in the oldest old

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    林娟; 黄绍宽; 陈智超; 黄利红

    2012-01-01

    Objective: To study incidence rate and risk factors of metabolic syndrome (MS) in the oldest old. Methods: A total of 229 patients admitted in our home for the aged in May 2010 were divided into oldest old group (n = 126, ≥80 years old) and non-oldest old group (n= 103, 60~79 years old). Measurements were performed on blood glucose, blood lipids, blood uric acid, height, weight, waist circumference and hip circumference, and general clinical data were recorded in all patients. Results: Compared with non-oldest old group, there were significant increase in incidence rates of diabetes mellitus (18.4% vs. 36.5%), hypertension (28.2% vs. 54.0%), hyperlipidemia (33. 0% vs. 57.1%) and obesity (27.2% vs. 46.8%) in oldest old group, P<0. 01 alls incidence rate of MS in oldest old group was significantly higher than that of non-oldest old group (34.9% vs. 17. 5%, P = 0. 0031). Conclusion: Incidence rate of metabolic syndrome in oldest old is higher than that of non-oldest old.%目的:探讨高龄老人代谢综合征(MS)患者的发病率及危险因素分析.方法:于2010年5月对在我院养老的229例患者,分为高龄组(≥80岁,126例)和非高龄组(60~79岁,103例),测定其血糖、血脂、血压、血尿酸、身高、体重、腰围和臀围,记录其一般临床资料.结果:与非高龄组比较,高龄组糖尿病(18.4%比36.5%)、高血压(28.2%比54.0%)、高血脂症(33.0%比57.1%)、肥胖(27.2%比46.8%)发生率均明显升高(P均<0.01);高龄组MS发生率明显高于非高龄组(34.9%比17.5%,P=0.0031).结论:高龄老人代谢综合征发生率较非高龄老人高.

  7. Rate of ectasia and incidence of irregular topography in patients with unidentified preoperative risk factors undergoing femtosecond laser-assisted LASIK

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Moshirfar M

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available Majid Moshirfar,1 Jared G Smedley,2 Valliammai Muthappan,1 Allison Jarsted,3 Erik M Ostler1 1John A Moran Eye Center, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT, USA; 2College of Human Medicine, Michigan State University, Lansing, MI, USA; 3Department of Ophthalmology, State University of New York Upstate Medical University, Syracuse, NY, USA Purpose: To report the rate of postoperative ectasia after laser-assisted in situ keratomileusis (LASIK with femtosecond laser-assisted flap creation, in a population of patients with no identified preoperative risk factors. Methods: A retrospective case review of 1,992 eyes (1,364 patients treated between March 2007 and January 2009 was conducted, with a follow up of over 4 years. After identifying cases of ectasia, all the patient charts were examined retrospectively for preoperative findings suggestive of forme fruste keratoconus (FFKC. Results: Five eyes of four patients with post-LASIK ectasia were identified. All eyes passed preoperative screening and received bilateral LASIK. One of the five patients developed ectasia in both eyes. Three patients retrospectively revealed preoperative topography suggestive of FFKC, while one patient had no identifiable preoperative risk factors. Upon review of all the charts, a total 69 eyes, including four of the five eyes with ectasia, were retrospectively found to have topographies suggestive of FFKC. Conclusion: We identified four cases of post-LASIK ectasia that had risk factors for FFKC on reexamination of the chart and one case of post-LASIK ectasia with no identifiable preoperative risk factors. The most conservative screening recommendations would not have precluded this patient from LASIK. The rate of purely iatrogenic post-LASIK ectasia at our center was 0.05% (1/1,992, and the total rate of post-LASIK ectasia for our entire study was 0.25% (1/398. The rate of eyes with unrecognized preoperative FFKC that developed post-LASIK ectasia was 5.8% (1/17. Keywords

  8. 东台市8560名学龄前儿童肥胖发病率及原因分析%Incidence Rate and Cause Analysis of Dongtai 8560 Preschool Children Obesity

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    仲爱梅

    2015-01-01

    目的:了解东台市学龄前儿童单纯性肥胖的发病率及主要的影响因素进行分析。方法对东台市22所幼儿园8560名3~6岁学龄前儿童应用身高别体重法筛选出肥胖儿童,计算肥胖发病率,并对肥胖影响因素进行分析。结果东台市学龄前儿童肥胖患病率为8.98%,其中男童9.72%,女童7.98%;3~6岁儿童肥胖发生率随年龄的升高而上升。儿童肥胖的发生与高出生体重、人工喂养、静坐时间长、父母肥胖、不良饮食习惯、家庭高收入等有关。结论儿童肥胖患病率较高,要加强对孕妇、儿童家长和儿童的健康教育,降低肥胖发生率,提高人口素质。%Objective To analyze incidence rates and the main influence factors of dongtai preschool children simple obesity. Methods 22 kindergartens in dongtai 8560 preschool children with obesity aged 3~ 6 years were screened and analyzing incidence rates and the main influence factors of dongtai preschool children simple obesity. Results Dongtai preschool children obesity prevalence was 8.98%, the boy was 9.72%, and the girls was 7.98%; With the increase of age 3 ~ 6 years old child obesity rates rise, The occur ence of obesity in children with high birth weight, artificial feeding, over a long period of time, parents obesity, poor diet, high household income and so on. Conclusion The incidence of childhood obesity is higher, must strengthen the education to the health of pregnant women, children, parents and children, reduce the incidence of obesity, improving population quality.

  9. Foodborne Illness Incidence Rates and Food Safety Risks for Populations of Low Socioeconomic Status and Minority Race/Ethnicity: A Review of the Literature

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jennifer J. Quinlan

    2013-08-01

    Full Text Available While foodborne illness is not traditionally tracked by race, ethnicity or income, analyses of reported cases have found increased rates of some foodborne illnesses among minority racial/ethnic populations. In some cases (Listeria, Yersinia increased rates are due to unique food consumption patterns, in other cases (Salmonella, Shigella, Campylobacter it is unclear why this health disparity exists. Research on safe food handling knowledge and behaviors among low income and minority consumers suggest that there may be a need to target safe food handling messages to these vulnerable populations. Another possibility is that these populations are receiving food that is less safe at the level of the retail outlet or foodservice facility. Research examining the quality and safety of food available at small markets in the food desert environment indicates that small corner markets face unique challenges which may affect the quality and potential safety of perishable food. Finally, a growing body of research has found that independent ethnic foodservice facilities may present increased risks for foodborne illness. This review of the literature will examine the current state of what is known about foodborne illness among, and food safety risks for, minority and low socioeconomic populations, with an emphasis on the United States and Europe.

  10. Treatment of Stages I and II cancer of the cervix: analysis of 5 year survival and recurrence rates. [Effects of surgery an incidence of complications following radiotherapy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tavares, M.A.; da Conceicao Belo, M.; Santos, M.

    1979-03-01

    Eight hundred and thirty five patients with a diagnosis of Stages I or II carcinoma of the cervix were treated from 2 January 1965 to 30 June 1971. The purpose of this study was to calculate the 5 year survival rates and to analyze the treatment failures according to the modality of treatment applied. Two series of Stages Ib and IIa patients were available; one group was treated with radiotherapy, and the other with radical hysterectomy and pelvic lymphadenectomy after previous intracavitary radiumtherapy. No statistically significant difference was found in the 5 year survival of both groups. Most Stage IIb patients were treated with radiotherapy. When residual tumor was found in the uterus of a patients who underwent radical surgery after intracavitary radiumtherapy it did not influence survival. On the other hand, the presence of metastatic pelvic lymph nodes after intracavitary radium treatment was related to a lowered survival rate. The number of severe injuries was higher in patients who were treated surgically. Recurrences developed within 5 years after completion of treatment in 10.8% of Stage Ib patients, 21.5% of Stage IIa patients, and 34.5% of Stage IIb patients. Ninety per cent of these recurrences appeared within 3 years after therapy.

  11. Nonlinear channelizer

    Science.gov (United States)

    In, Visarath; Longhini, Patrick; Kho, Andy; Neff, Joseph D.; Leung, Daniel; Liu, Norman; Meadows, Brian K.; Gordon, Frank; Bulsara, Adi R.; Palacios, Antonio

    2012-12-01

    The nonlinear channelizer is an integrated circuit made up of large parallel arrays of analog nonlinear oscillators, which, collectively, serve as a broad-spectrum analyzer with the ability to receive complex signals containing multiple frequencies and instantaneously lock-on or respond to a received signal in a few oscillation cycles. The concept is based on the generation of internal oscillations in coupled nonlinear systems that do not normally oscillate in the absence of coupling. In particular, the system consists of unidirectionally coupled bistable nonlinear elements, where the frequency and other dynamical characteristics of the emergent oscillations depend on the system's internal parameters and the received signal. These properties and characteristics are being employed to develop a system capable of locking onto any arbitrary input radio frequency signal. The system is efficient by eliminating the need for high-speed, high-accuracy analog-to-digital converters, and compact by making use of nonlinear coupled systems to act as a channelizer (frequency binning and channeling), a low noise amplifier, and a frequency down-converter in a single step which, in turn, will reduce the size, weight, power, and cost of the entire communication system. This paper covers the theory, numerical simulations, and some engineering details that validate the concept at the frequency band of 1-4 GHz.

  12. Maximal-entropy-production-rate nonlinear quantum dynamics compatible with second law, reciprocity, fluctuation-dissipation, and time-energy uncertainty relations

    CERN Document Server

    Beretta, G P

    2001-01-01

    In view of the recent quest for well-behaved nonlinear extensions of the traditional Schroedinger-von Neumann unitary dynamics that could provide fundamental explanations of recent experimental evidence of loss of quantum coherence at the microscopic level, in this paper, together with a review of the general features of the nonlinear quantum (thermo)dynamics I proposed in a series of papers [see references in G.P. Beretta, Found.Phys. 17, 365 (1987)], I show its exact equivalence with the maximal-entropy-production variational-principle formulation recently derived in S. Gheorghiu-Svirschevski, Phys.Rev. A 63, 022105 (2001). In addition, based on the formalism of general interest I developed for the analysis of composite systems, I show how the variational derivation can be extended to the case of a composite system to obtain the general form of my equation of motion, that turns out to be consistent with the demanding requirements of strong separability. Moreover, I propose a new intriguing fundamental ansat...

  13. Nonlinear dynamics

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Turchetti, G. (Bologna Univ. (Italy). Dipt. di Fisica)

    1989-01-01

    Research in nonlinear dynamics is rapidly expanding and its range of applications is extending beyond the traditional areas of science where it was first developed. Indeed while linear analysis and modelling, which has been very successful in mathematical physics and engineering, has become a mature science, many elementary phenomena of intrinsic nonlinear nature were recently experimentally detected and investigated, suggesting new theoretical work. Complex systems, as turbulent fluids, were known to be governed by intrinsically nonlinear laws since a long time ago, but received purely phenomenological descriptions. The pioneering works of Boltzmann and Poincare, probably because of their intrinsic difficulty, did not have a revolutionary impact at their time; it is only very recently that their message is reaching a significant number of mathematicians and physicists. Certainly the development of computers and computer graphics played an important role in developing geometric intuition of complex phenomena through simple numerical experiments, while a new mathematical framework to understand them was being developed.

  14. 拟似然非线性模型中极大拟似然估计的强收敛速度%Strong Convergence Rates of Maximum Quasi-likelihood Estimation in Quasi-likelihood nonlinear model

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    张戈

    2015-01-01

    We studies the issue raised by Reference[3],according to appropriate assumptions and other smooth conditions,With a more simple method,Proved that asymptotic existence of quasi likelihood equations in Quasi-likelihood nonlinear model ,and proved the convergence rate of the solution.%在适当假定及其它一些光滑条件下,用更为简便的方法证明了拟似然非线性模型的拟似然方程解的渐近存在性,并且求出了该解收敛于真值的速度.

  15. 乙型肝炎发病趋势的GM(1,1)模型预测%Analyzing the Trend of Hepatitis B Incidence Rate with Grey Dynamic Model

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    吴昊澄; 徐旭卿; 王臻; 曾蓓蓓; 鲁琴宝; 何凡; 刘碧瑶; 赵艳荣

    2011-01-01

    Objective To understand and predict the incidence trend of hepatitis B in Zhejiang province.Methods The grey dynamic model was established with the incidence rates of hepatitis B in Zhejiang province from 2004 to 2009.The Average relative error,standard deviation ratio and small error probability were calculated respectively to measure the fitting accuracy of the model.Results According to the model, the predicted incidence rate of hepatitis B would be 60.76 and 56.83 per 100000 person - years respectively for the year of 2010 and 20ll.The model showed a downward trend of hepatitis B incidence in Zhejiang province and suggested the great success has been achieved in the hepatitis B prevention and control.The current comprehensive measures should be continued for the prevention and control of hepatitis B.Conclusion The Relative Average Error, Standard Deviation Ratio and Small Error Probability of the model were 0.027, 0.27 and 1 respectively, which showed that the model could fit the data well end could be used to predict the future trend.%目的 预测浙江省乙型肝炎发病趋势,为卫生工作的决策和防病治病提供科学的依据.方法 根据浙江省2004-2009年乙型肝炎发病率,建立GM(1,1)模型,进行预测研究.结果 预测结果显示,浙江省2010-2011年乙型肝炎发病率分布为60.78/10万和56.84/10万.浙江省2010-2011年乙型肝炎的发病率呈下降趋势,提示乙肝防控工作成效明显,应继续落实各项防控措施.结论 预测模型精度检验△=0.027,C=0.27,P=1,外推预测较精确.

  16. Nonlinear Dynamic Force Spectroscopy

    CERN Document Server

    Björnham, Oscar

    2016-01-01

    Dynamic force spectroscopy (DFS) is an experimental technique that is commonly used to assess information of the strength, energy landscape, and lifetime of noncovalent bio-molecular interactions. DFS traditionally requires an applied force that increases linearly with time so that the bio-complex under investigation is exposed to a constant loading rate. However, tethers or polymers can modulate the applied force in a nonlinear regime. For example, bacterial adhesion pili and polymers with worm-like chain properties are examples of structures that show nonlinear force responses. In these situations, the theory for traditional DFS cannot be readily applied. In this work we expand the theory for DFS to also include nonlinear external forces while still maintaining compatibility with the linear DFS theory. To validate the theory we modeled a bio-complex expressed on a stiff, an elastic and a worm-like chain polymer, using Monte Carlo methods, and assessed the corresponding rupture force spectra. It was found th...

  17. Nonlinear optomechanical paddle nanocavities

    CERN Document Server

    Kaviani, Hamidreza; Wu, Marcelo; Ghobadi, Roohollah; Barclay, Paul E

    2014-01-01

    A photonic crystal optomechanical system combining strong nonlinear optomechanical coupling, low effective mass and large optical mode spacing is introduced. This nanoscale "paddle nanocavity" device supports mechanical resonances with effective mass of 300--600 fg which couple nonlinearly to co-localized optical modes with a quadratic optomechanical coupling coefficient $g^{(2)} > 2\\pi\\times400$ MHz/nm$^2$, and a two phonon to single photon optomechanical coupling rate $\\Delta \\omega_0 > 2\\pi\\times 16$ Hz. This coupling relies on strong phonon-photon interactions in a structure whose optical mode spectrum is highly non--degenerate. Simulations indicate that nonlinear optomechanical readout of thermally driven motion in these devices should be observable for T $> 50 $ mK, and that measurement of phonon shot noise is achievable.

  18. Extinction and persistence of a stochastic nonlinear SIS epidemic model with jumps

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ge, Qing; Ji, Guilin; Xu, Jiabo; Fan, Xiaolin

    2016-11-01

    In this paper, Brownian motion and L e ´ vy jumps are introduced to a SIS type epidemic model with nonlinear incidence rate. The dynamical behavior of the considered model is investigated. In order to reveal the extinction and permanence of the disease, two threshold values R˜0 ,R¯0 are showed. We find that if R˜0 1, the disease may be persistent. Finally, the numerical simulations are presented to illustrate our mathematical results.

  19. Importance of glomerular filtration rate change as surrogate endpoint for the future incidence of end-stage renal disease in general Japanese population: community-based cohort study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kanda, Eiichiro; Usui, Tomoko; Kashihara, Naoki; Iseki, Chiho; Iseki, Kunitoshi; Nangaku, Masaomi

    2017-09-07

    Because of the necessity for extended period and large costs until the event occurs, surrogate endpoints are indispensable for implementation of clinical studies to improve chronic kidney disease (CKD) patients' prognosis. Subjects with serum creatinine level for a baseline period over 1-3 years were enrolled (n = 69,238) in this community-based prospective cohort study in Okinawa, Japan, and followed up for 15 years. The endpoint was end-stage renal disease (ESRD). The percent of estimated glomerular filtration rate (%eGFR) change was calculated on the basis of the baseline period. Subjects had a mean ± SD age, 55.59 ± 14.69 years; eGFR, 80.15 ± 21.15 ml/min/1.73 m(2). Among the subjects recruited, 15.81% had a low eGFR (changes over 2 or 3 years in the high- and low-eGFR groups. The specificities and positive predictive values for ESRD based on a cutoff value of %eGFR change of less than -30% over 2 or 3 years were high in the high- and low-eGFR groups. %eGFR change tends to be associated with the risk of ESRD. %eGFR change of less than -30% over 2 or 3 years can be a candidate surrogate endpoint for ESRD in the general Japanese population.

  20. The prevalence and genetic characterization of Chlamydia psittaci from domestic and feral pigeons in Poland and the correlation between infection rate and incidence of pigeon circovirus.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stenzel, Tomasz; Pestka, Daria; Choszcz, Dariusz

    2014-12-01

    Chlamydiosis is a zoonotic disease caused by Chlamydia psittaci that occurs in a wide range of bird species. High infection rates with C. psittaci are found in pigeons, which can act as vectors transmitting this bacterium to poultry and humans. Chlamydia shedding by pigeons is intermittent and can be activated by stressors or immunosuppression. The most common immunosuppressive factor for pigeons is a pigeon circovirus (PiCV) infection. The main aim of the study was to evaluate the prevalence of C. psittaci in Polish populations of domestic and feral pigeons (Columba livia) in the context of its correlation with PiCV infections. The second objective was to determine the genetic characteristics of Polish C. psittaci isolates. The study was conducted on 377 pigeon samples (276 domestic and 101 feral pigeons) collected from pigeons from different regions of Poland. The average prevalence of C. psittaci in the Polish pigeon population was determined at 6.8%, and it was higher in domestic than in feral pigeons. This is the first ever study to suggest a potential correlation between C. psittaci and PiCV infections, which could be attributed to the fact that there are 2 to 3 times more pigeons infected with C. psittaci and coinfected with PiCV than pigeons infected with C. psittaci alone. This trend was observed mainly in the population of sick pigeons. As many as 88.2% of isolates were recognized as belonging to genotype B, and the remaining isolates were identified as belonging to genotype E. The isolates analyzed in this study demonstrated low levels of genetic variation (96-100% homology among the isolates and in relation to reference strains). Chlamydia psittaci could be expected to spread across pigeon populations due to the high probability of mutual infections between birds and the increasing number of PiCV infections.

  1. Posttraumatic Stress Disorder After High-Dose-Rate Brachytherapy for Cervical Cancer With 2 Fractions in 1 Application Under Spinal/Epidural Anesthesia: Incidence and Risk Factors

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kirchheiner, Kathrin, E-mail: kathrin.kirchheiner@meduniwien.ac.at [Department of Radiation Oncology, Comprehensive Cancer Center, Medical University of Vienna/General Hospital of Vienna, Vienna (Austria); Christian Doppler Laboratory for Medical Radiation Research for Radiation Oncology, Medical University of Vienna, Vienna (Austria); Czajka-Pepl, Agnieszka [Department of Radiation Oncology, Comprehensive Cancer Center, Medical University of Vienna/General Hospital of Vienna, Vienna (Austria); Ponocny-Seliger, Elisabeth [Department of Psychology, Sigmund Freud Private University Vienna, Vienna (Austria); Scharbert, Gisela; Wetzel, Léonore [Department of Anaesthesia, General Intensive Care and Pain Management, Medical University of Vienna/General Hospital of Vienna, Vienna (Austria); Nout, Remi A. [Department of Clinical Oncology, Leiden University Medical Center, Leiden (Netherlands); Sturdza, Alina [Department of Radiation Oncology, Comprehensive Cancer Center, Medical University of Vienna/General Hospital of Vienna, Vienna (Austria); Dimopoulos, Johannes C. [Metropolitan Hospital, Athens (Greece); Dörr, Wolfgang; Pötter, Richard [Department of Radiation Oncology, Comprehensive Cancer Center, Medical University of Vienna/General Hospital of Vienna, Vienna (Austria); Christian Doppler Laboratory for Medical Radiation Research for Radiation Oncology, Medical University of Vienna, Vienna (Austria)

    2014-06-01

    Purpose: To investigate the psychological consequences of high-dose-rate brachytherapy with 2 fractions in 1 application under spinal/epidural anesthesia in the treatment of locally advanced cervical cancer. Methods and Materials: In 50 patients with locally advanced cervical cancer, validated questionnaires were used for prospective assessment of acute and posttraumatic stress disorder (ASD/PTSD) (Impact of Event Scale–Revision), anxiety/depression (Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale), quality of life (European Organization for Research and Treatment of Cancer Quality of Life Questionnaire Core 30/Cervical Cancer 24), physical functioning (World Health Organization performance status), and pain (visual analogue scale), before and during treatment and 1 week and 3 months after treatment. Qualitative interviews were recorded in open format for content analysis. Results: Symptoms of ASD occurred in 30% of patients 1 week after treatment; and of PTSD in 41% 3 months after treatment in association with this specific brachytherapy procedure. Pretreatment predictive variables explain 82% of the variance of PTSD symptoms. Helpful experiences were the support of the treatment team, psychological support, and a positive attitude. Stressful factors were pain, organizational problems during treatment, and immobility between brachytherapy fractions. Conclusions: The specific brachytherapy procedure, as performed in the investigated mono-institutional setting with 2 fractions in 1 application under spinal/epidural anesthesia, bears a considerable risk of traumatization. The source of stress seems to be not the brachytherapy application itself but the maintenance of the applicator under epidural anesthesia in the time between fractions. Patients at risk may be identified before treatment, to offer targeted psycho-social support. The patients' open reports regarding helpful experiences are an encouraging feedback for the treatment team; the reported stressful

  2. A prospective randomised trial comparing insertion success rate and incidence of catheterisation-related complications for subclavian venous catheterisation using a thin-walled introducer needle or a catheter-over-needle technique.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, E; Kim, B G; Lim, Y J; Jeon, Y T; Hwang, J W; Kim, H C; Choi, Y H; Park, H P

    2016-09-01

    In clinical practice, both a thin-walled introducer needle and catheter-over-needle technique can be used to allow insertion of a guidewire during central venous catheterisation using the Seldinger technique. We compared the incidence of catheterisation-related complications (arterial puncture, haemothorax, pneumothorax, haematoma and catheter tip malposition) and insertion success rate for these two techniques in patients requiring right-sided subclavian central venous catheterisation. A total of 414 patients requiring infraclavicular subclavian venous catheterisation were randomly allocated to either a thin-walled introducer needle (needle group, n = 208) or catheter-over-needle technique (catheter group, n = 206). The catheterisation-related complication rate was lower in the needle group compared with the catheter group (5.8% vs. 15.5%; p = 0.001). Overall insertion success rates were similar (97.1% and 92.7% in the needle and catheter groups respectively; p = 0.046), although the first-pass success rate was higher in the needle group (62.0% vs. 35.4%; p technique for right-sided infraclavicular subclavian venous catheterisation.

  3. Nonlinear acoustic propagation in rectangular ducts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nayfeh, A. H.; Tsai, M.-S.

    1974-01-01

    The method of multiple scales is used to obtain a second-order uniformly valid expansion for nonlinear acoustic wave propagation in a rectangular duct whose walls are treated with a nonlinear acoustic material. The wave propagation in the duct is characterized by the unsteady nonlinear Euler equations. The results show that nonlinear materials attenuate sound more than linear materials except at high acoustic frequencies. The nonlinear materials produce higher and combination tones which have higher attenuation rates than the fundamentals. Moreover, the attenuation rates of the fundamentals increase with increasing amplitude.

  4. Nonlinear Systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seider, Warren D.; Ungar, Lyle H.

    1987-01-01

    Describes a course in nonlinear mathematics courses offered at the University of Pennsylvania which provides an opportunity for students to examine the complex solution spaces that chemical engineers encounter. Topics include modeling many chemical processes, especially those involving reaction and diffusion, auto catalytic reactions, phase…

  5. Nonlinear error testing method based on sine wave click rate technology%基于正弦波点击率的非线性误差测试方法

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    杨景阳; 刘路扬; 吕兵

    2016-01-01

    针对ADC在通讯和多媒体技术上的应用需求,研究了基于正弦波点击率的ADC非线性误差测试方法,实现了正弦波点击率技术在ADC非线性误差测试中的应用。向ADC输入正弦波信号,对输出数字码进行标准化处理,补偿正弦波形电压分布的不均匀性,通过点击率算法推算 ADC 的微分非线性误差,并在大规模数模混合测试设备Catalyst-200上验证了算法的可靠性和精确性。实验结果表明,该算法能够精确地估算 ADC非线性误差,完整地表征了ADC线性度和丢码率,为ADC在通讯和多媒体技术上的应用提供了重要的参数依据,具有较强的工程实用性和市场前景性。%To fulfill the ADC applied on communication and imedia technology,this article researches the ADC’s Nonlinear error testing method based on Sine Wave click rate technology,and realizes the application of Sine wave click technology in ADC’s nonlinearity error testing.Put the sine wave into ADC’s input,deal the output data with normalized conduct to compensate the uneven distribution of sine waveform voltage,and then,calculate the ADC’s differential Nonlinearity Error by means of click rate algorithm,at the end,verify reliability and accuracy of the algorithm at the e-scale mixed-signal test equipment Catalyst-200.The experimental results show that this algorithm can estimate the ADC’s nonlinearity error accurately,represent the ADC’s linearity and dropout rate entirely,provide important parameter to the application of ADC on communication and imedia technology.it has a strong engineering practicality and a fine market outlook.

  6. 应用麻疹发病率估算麻疹疫苗首剂接种率的效果%An evaluation of immunization coverage of the first dose of measles containing vaccine using incidence rate

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    李万仓; 林献丹; 王志刚; 郑晓春; 陈玲萍; 孙肖瑜

    2014-01-01

    Objective To evaluate the immunization coverage of the first dose of measles containing vaccine (MCV1 )by using the incidence of measles in Wenzhou City.Methods Descriptive epidemiological methods were used to analyze measles cases that reported in Wenzhou city from 2007 to 2012 and evaluate the immunization coverage of the first dose of measles containing vaccine.Results The average annual incidence rate was 10.46/100 000 from 2007 to 2012,and the annual incidence rate was 43.44/100 000 for children aged from 8 months to 83 months (42.59%).Based on the proportion of immunized measles cases vaccine effectiveness (VE)of MCV,the evaluated coverage rate of MCV1 was 73.80% (VE=90%)or 84.92% (VE=95%)in children aged from 13 to 83 months.The evaluated coverage rate of MCV1 was 83.25%(VE=90%)or 90.86%(VE=95%)in local children and 69.5 1%(VE=90%)or 82.02%(VE=95%)in migrating children.The timely immunization rate of MCV1 was 59.48% (VE =90%)or 74.59% (VE =95%).Conclusion The coverage rate and timely coverage rate of MCV1 are still low.It is important to strengthen the management of migrating population and enhance propaganda to ensure a high level vaccination rate to accelerate the elimination of measles.%目的:评价温州市含麻疹成分疫苗(MCV)首剂(MCV1)接种率。方法采用描述性流行病学方法,对温州市2007-2012年报告的麻疹病例分析并对MCV1接种率进行评价。结果温州市2007-2012年麻疹年均发病率为10.46/10万。其中8~83月龄麻疹年均发病率为43.44/10万(占总病例数的42.59%)。13~83月龄儿童MCV1接种率为73.80%(疫苗效力VE=90%)或84.92%(VE=95%);本地、流动儿童MCV1接种率分别为83.25%和69.51%(VE=90%)或90.86%和82.02%(VE=95%),MCV1及时接种率分别为59.48%(VE=90%)或74.59%(VE =95%)。结论温州市MCV1接种率和及时接种率均较低。应加强流动人口管理,提高MV接种率和及时率。

  7. Generalized Nonlinear Yule Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lansky, Petr; Polito, Federico; Sacerdote, Laura

    2016-10-01

    With the aim of considering models related to random graphs growth exhibiting persistent memory, we propose a fractional nonlinear modification of the classical Yule model often studied in the context of macroevolution. Here the model is analyzed and interpreted in the framework of the development of networks such as the World Wide Web. Nonlinearity is introduced by replacing the linear birth process governing the growth of the in-links of each specific webpage with a fractional nonlinear birth process with completely general birth rates. Among the main results we derive the explicit distribution of the number of in-links of a webpage chosen uniformly at random recognizing the contribution to the asymptotics and the finite time correction. The mean value of the latter distribution is also calculated explicitly in the most general case. Furthermore, in order to show the usefulness of our results, we particularize them in the case of specific birth rates giving rise to a saturating behaviour, a property that is often observed in nature. The further specialization to the non-fractional case allows us to extend the Yule model accounting for a nonlinear growth.

  8. Generalized Nonlinear Yule Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lansky, Petr; Polito, Federico; Sacerdote, Laura

    2016-11-01

    With the aim of considering models related to random graphs growth exhibiting persistent memory, we propose a fractional nonlinear modification of the classical Yule model often studied in the context of macroevolution. Here the model is analyzed and interpreted in the framework of the development of networks such as the World Wide Web. Nonlinearity is introduced by replacing the linear birth process governing the growth of the in-links of each specific webpage with a fractional nonlinear birth process with completely general birth rates. Among the main results we derive the explicit distribution of the number of in-links of a webpage chosen uniformly at random recognizing the contribution to the asymptotics and the finite time correction. The mean value of the latter distribution is also calculated explicitly in the most general case. Furthermore, in order to show the usefulness of our results, we particularize them in the case of specific birth rates giving rise to a saturating behaviour, a property that is often observed in nature. The further specialization to the non-fractional case allows us to extend the Yule model accounting for a nonlinear growth.

  9. Nonlinear Conte-Zbilut-Federici (CZF Method of Computing LF/HF Ratio: A More Reliable Index of Changes in Heart Rate Variability

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vernon Bond Jr

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available Objectives: Acupuncture treatments are safe and effective for a wide variety of diseases involving autonomic dysregulation. Heart rate variability (HRV is a noninvasive method for assessing sympathovagal balance. The low frequency/high frequency (LF/HF spectral power ratio is an index of sympathovagal influence on heart rate and of cardi

  10. Strong nonlinear focusing of light in nonlinearly controlled electromagnetic active metamaterial field concentrators

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rapoport, Yu G.; Boardman, A. D.; Grimalsky, V. V.; Ivchenko, V. M.; Kalinich, N.

    2014-05-01

    The idea of nonlinear ‘transformation optics-inspired’ [1-6] electromagnetic cylindrical field concentrators has been taken up in a preliminary manner in a number of conference reports [7-9]. Such a concentrator includes both external linear region with a dielectric constant increased towards the centre and internal region with nonlinearity characterized by constant coefficients. Then, in the process of farther investigations we realized the following factors considered neither in [7-9] nor in the recent paper [10]: saturation of nonlinearity, nonlinear losses, linear gain, numerical convergence, when nonlinear effect becomes very strong and formation of ‘hotspots’ starts. It is clearly demonstrated here that such a strongly nonlinear process starts when the nonlinear amplitude of any incident beam(s) exceeds some ‘threshold’ value. Moreover, it is shown that the formation of hotspots may start as the result of any of the following processes: an increase of the input amplitude, increasing the linear amplification in the central nonlinear region, decreasing the nonlinear losses, a decrease in the saturation of the nonlinearity. Therefore, a tendency to a formation of ‘hotspots’ is a rather universal feature of the strongly nonlinear behaviour of the ‘nonlinear resonator’ system, while at the same time the system is not sensitive to the ‘prehistory’ of approaching nonlinear threshold intensity (amplitude). The new proposed method includes a full-wave nonlinear solution analysis (in the nonlinear region), a new form of complex geometric optics (in the linear inhomogeneous external cylinder), and new boundary conditions, matching both solutions. The observed nonlinear phenomena will have a positive impact upon socially and environmentally important devices of the future. Although a graded-index concentrator is used here, it is a direct outcome of transformation optics. Numerical evaluations show that for known materials these nonlinear effects

  11. A dengue model incorporating saturation incidence and human migration

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gakkhar, S.; Mishra, A.

    2015-03-01

    In this paper, a non-linear model has been proposed to investigate the effects of human migration on dengue dynamics. Human migration has been considered between two patches having different dengue strains. Due to migration secondary infection is possible. Further, the secondary infection is considered in patch-2 only as strain-2 in patch-2 is considered to be more severe than that of strain-1 in patch-1. The saturation incidence rate has been considered to incorporate the behavioral changes towards epidemic in human population. The basic reproduction number has been computed. Four Equilibrium states have been found and analyzed. Increasing saturation rate decreases the threshold thereby enhancing the stability of disease-free state in both the patches. Control on migration may lead to change in infection level of patches.

  12. 农村社区成人糖尿病发病及空腹血糖水平异常情况研究%Incidence Rate of Diabetes and Impaired Fast Glucose in Chinese Rural Adults: A Cohort Study

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    王法弟; 付朝伟; 陈跃; 王学才; 宋建根; 董晓莲; 朱建福; 卫国荣; 姜庆五

    2011-01-01

    目的 了解当前农村社区成人居民糖尿病发病与空腹血糖水平异常情况及其关系.方法 采用流行病学队列研究设计,随访1908名参加基线调查的18~64周岁的农村社区居民.结果 德清县农村社区居民糖尿病2年累积发病率为2.20%,使用2000年全国人口进行年龄和性别标化后的标化率为1.10%,在不同年龄组中发病率不同,且随着年龄明显上升;空腹血糖受损的2年累积发病率为4.67%(标化率为3.60%).本次共随访3374.5人年,德清县农村社区18~64周岁成人糖尿病发病率为9.8/千人年.进一步分析表明,在调整了基线年龄、性别、文化程度、职业、BMI、吸烟、饮酒、规律体育锻炼和高血压之后,与基线空腹血糖<5.6mmol/L的队列成员相比,IFG明显增加了糖尿病发病风险;空腹血糖5.6~6.0mmol/L的人发生糖尿病风险增加了近7倍;基线空腹血糖每增加1 mmol/L,糖尿病发病风险增加近8倍.结论 农村社区成人糖尿病和空腹血糖受损(IFG)发病处于较高水平,空腹血糖高,特别是IFG明显增加了糖尿病发病风险,而采用5.6mmol/L的诊断标准来判断是否空腹高血糖可能更有利于农村社区糖尿病防治,应加强对高空腹血糖人群的社区干预.%Objective To determine the incidence rate of both diabetes and impaired fast glucose ( IFG), and to further explore their associations among Chinese rural adults. Method A cohort study was carried out in Deqing County, Zhejiang Province, China. A total number of 1908 subjects aged between 18 to 64 years participated in the baseline survey and were subsequently followed up for approximately two years. Result The two - year cumulative incidence (CI) of diabetes was 2. 20% ( 1.10% when sex and age were standardized); the two - year CI of IFG among the subjects with fast glucose less than 5.6mmol/L at baseline was 4.67% ( the standardized incidence was 3.60% ), and the incidence rate (IR) of

  13. Nonlinear PDEs

    OpenAIRE

    2015-01-01

    From the Back Cover: The emphasis throughout the present volume is on the practical application of theoretical mathematical models helping to unravel the underlying mechanisms involved in processes from mathematical physics and biosciences. It has been conceived as a unique collection of abstract methods dealing especially with nonlinear partial differential equations (either stationary or evolutionary) that are applied to understand concrete processes involving some important applications re...

  14. Nonlinear fractional relaxation

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    A Tofighi

    2012-04-01

    We define a nonlinear model for fractional relaxation phenomena. We use -expansion method to analyse this model. By studying the fundamental solutions of this model we find that when → 0 the model exhibits a fast decay rate and when → ∞ the model exhibits a power-law decay. By analysing the frequency response we find a logarithmic enhancement for the relative ratio of susceptibility.

  15. Autonomic control of heart rate during non-linear incremental upper-limb resistance exercise with elastic bands in young healthy female subjects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ramos Batalha, Priscila; Borghi-Silva, Audrey; Campos Freire, Renato; Zanela DA Silva Arêas, Fernando; Peixoto Tinoco Arêas, Guilherme

    2016-11-01

    Elastic bands are therapeutic tools widely used in rehabilitation. However, knowledge regarding autonomic cardiovascular overload during this type of resistance exercise is limited. This study assessed the autonomic control of heart rate during an incremental exercise protocol with elastic bands in sedentary healthy young individuals. Ten young women were subjected to an exercise protocol involving bilateral shoulder flexion to 90° with various thicknesses of elastic bands; the exercise was performed for 36 uninterrupted repetitions with a 15-minute rest interval between sets. During the exercise, the RR intervals (R-Ri) were collected and determined, the heart rate variability was analyzed. All subjects completed the exercise protocol. Heart rate increased, and RR intervals decreased from the yellow elastic band onward. However, the square root of the sum of the square of the difference of RR intervals divided by the number of RR interval, standard deviation of the arithmetic mean of all normal RR intervals, and standard deviation of the RR interval instantaneous intervals of type I decreased significantly when performed with the green band onward (PExercise with progressive elastic load increases heart rate. However, the green elastic band induces less total and parasympathetic modulation heart rate variability.

  16. Incidence of Narcolepsy in Germany.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oberle, Doris; Drechsel-Bäuerle, Ursula; Schmidtmann, Irene; Mayer, Geert; Keller-Stanislawski, Brigitte

    2015-10-01

    Following the 2009 pandemic, reports of an association between an AS03 adjuvanted H1N1 pandemic influenza vaccine and narcolepsy were published. Besides determining background incidence rates for narcolepsy in Germany this study aimed at investigating whether there was a change in incidence rates of narcolepsy between the pre-pandemic, pandemic, and the post-pandemic period on the population level. Retrospective epidemiological study on the incidence of narcolepsy with additional capture-recapture analysis. German sleep centers. Eligible were patients with an initial diagnosis of narcolepsy (ICD10 Code G47.4) within the period from January 1, 2007 to December 31, 2011. None; observational study. A total of 342 sleep centers were invited to participate in the study. Adequate and suitable data were provided by 233 sleep centers (68.1%). A total of 1,198 patients with an initial diagnosis of narcolepsy within the observed period were included, of whom 106 (8.8%) were children and adolescents under the age of 18 years and 1,092 (91.2%) were adults. In children and adolescents, the age-standardized adjusted incidence rate significantly increased from 0.14/100,000 person-years in the pre-pandemic period to 0.50/100,000 person-years in the post-pandemic period (incidence density ratio, IDR 3.57; 95% CI 1.94-7.00). In adults, no significant change was detectable. This increase started in spring 2009. For the years 2007-2011, valid estimates for the incidence of narcolepsy in Germany were provided. In individuals under 18, the incidence rates continuously increased from spring 2009. © 2015 Associated Professional Sleep Societies, LLC.

  17. 三级监控降低卡介苗接种后异常反应发生率的探讨%THE DISCUSSION OF THREE-LEVEL MONITORING TO REDUCE THE ABNORMAL REACTION INCIDENCE RATE AFTER BCG VACCINATION

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    陈立群; 邵丽文; 江爱玉

    2012-01-01

    Objective To discuss the effect of three -level monitoring to reduce the abnormal reaction incidence rate after bacillus calmette - guerin( BCG ) vaccination. Methods A total of 4 346 cases of newborn who were born in 2009 were assigned into control group ,3 999 cases of newborn born in 2010 into experimental group. Experimental group was given three-level monitoring on response after BCG vaccination and control group was observed traditionaly after the BCG vaccinaLion. The abnormal reaction incidence rate after BCG vaccination and the parents' satisfaction of BCG vaccination work were observed. Results The abnormal reactions of experimental group occurred at a rate of 1.50 per thousand, and the control group was 3.91 per thousand, the difference was statistically significant( P < 0. 05 ). The satisfaction of parents at discharge in experimental group was 96. 17% and control group was 94. 22% ; When the babies were six months old the satisfacLion of parenLs in experimental group was 91. 42% and control group was 88.47% with a significant difference( P<0.05 ). Conclusion Implementation of the three-level monitoring reduces the abnormal reaction incidence rate after vaccination, improves the parenLs'satisfaction with BCG vaccination work.%目的 探讨三级监控降低卡介苗接种后异常反应发生率的效果.方法 以2009年出生的新生儿4 346例为对照组,2010年出生的3 999例为试验组.试验组实施卡介苗接种后反应的三级监控,对照组采用传统的卡介苗接种后的观察.观察2组卡介苗接种后异常反应发生率及家长对卡介苗接种工作满意度.结果 试验组的异常反应发生率为1.50‰,对照组发生率为3.91‰,差异有统计学意义(P>0.05).出院时家长满意度试验组为96.17%,对照组为94.22%,婴儿6个月时满意度试验组为91.42%,对照组为88.47%,差异有统计学意义(P<0.01).结论 实施三级监控降低了接种后异常反应发生率,提高了家长对卡介苗预防接种工作的满意度.

  18. Strongly Nonlinear Dependence of Energy Transfer Rate on sp(2) Carbon Content in Reduced Graphene Oxide-Quantum Dot Hybrid Structures.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dong, Yitong; Son, Dong Hee

    2015-01-02

    The dependence of the energy transfer rate on the content of sp(2)-hybridized carbon atoms in the hybrid structures of reduced graphene oxide (RGO) and Mn-doped quantum dot (QD(Mn)) was investigated. Taking advantage of the sensitivity of QD(Mn)'s dopant luminescence lifetime only to the energy transfer process without interference from the charge transfer process, the correlation between the sp(2) carbon content in RGO and the rate of energy transfer from QD(Mn) to RGO was obtained. The rate of energy transfer showed a strongly superlinear increase with increasing sp(2) carbon content in RGO, suggesting the possible cooperative behavior of sp(2) carbon domains in the energy transfer process as the sp(2) carbon content increases.

  19. Tendencias en las tasas de incidencia de cáncer colorrectal en Navarra en el periodo 1990-2005 Incidence rate trends for colorectal cancer in Navarre (North of Spain in the 1990-2005 period

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Etxeberria

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available Fundamento. En España, se ha observado un aumento de la incidencia de cáncer colorrectal (CCR en ambos sexos en los últimos años, posiblemente debido a las mejoras diagnósticas, a la occidentalización de la dieta y al empeoramiento de los niveles de obesidad entre otros. En este trabajo se han estudiado las tendencias de la incidencia de CCR en las diferentes áreas de salud de Navarra (norte de España durante el período 1990-2005. Métodos. Para cada sexo y área, se obtuvieron las tendencias de las tasas de incidencia y los correspondientes intervalos de confianza mediante modelos de P-splines. Resultados. Se observa una tendencia creciente de la incidencia de CCR en la mayoría de las áreas para ambos sexos, siendo menos pronunciada en las mujeres que en los hombres. En la zona centro de Pamplona (la capital se observa una tendencia decreciente para los hombres durante el período estudiado. Conclusiones. Para cambiar las tendencias crecientes observadas en la mayoría de las áreas de la provincia, la prevención primaria es la mejor estrategia. Sin embargo, adquirir estilos de vida saludables tiene resultados a largo plazo por lo que un programa de detección temprana serviría como estrategia de prevención a más corto plazo.Background. In Spain, an increase in the incidence of colorectal cancer (CRC has been observed in both sexes in recent years, probably due to an improved diagnostic, the westernization of dietary habits, and worse obesity levels, among others factors. In this work, CRC incidence rate trends in different health areas in Navarre (northern Spain are studied during the 1990-2005 period. Methods. An estimated incidence trend curve for each health area and the corresponding confidence bands were obtained for each gender using P-spline models. Results. These results show an increasing trend of CRC in most of the areas in both sexes, being less pronounced in women than in men. In the central area of Pamplona (the

  20. Nonlinear magnetization dynamics in nanosystems

    CERN Document Server

    Mayergoyz, Isaak D; Serpico, Claudio

    2014-01-01

    As data transfer rates increase within the magnetic recording industry, improvements in device performance and reliability crucially depend on the thorough understanding of nonlinear magnetization dynamics at a sub-nanoscale level. This book offers a modern, stimulating approach to the subject of nonlinear magnetization dynamics by discussing important aspects such as the Landau-Lifshitz-Gilbert (LLG) equation, analytical solutions, and the connection between the general topological and structural aspects of dynamics. An advanced reference for the study and understanding of non

  1. Incidence of hepatitis C virus (HCV in a multicenter cohort of HIV-positive patients in Spain 2004-2011: increasing rates of HCV diagnosis but not of HCV seroconversions.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Paz Sobrino-Vegas

    Full Text Available OBJECTIVES: We aim to describe rates and risk factors of Hepatitis C Virus (HCV diagnoses, follow-up HCV testing and HCV seroconversion from 2004-2011 in a cohort of HIV-positive persons in Spain. METHODS: CoRIS is a multicentre, open and prospective cohort recruiting adult HIV-positive patients naïve to antiretroviral therapy. We analysed patients with at least one negative and one follow-up HCV serology. Incidence Rates (IR were calculated and multivariate Poisson regression was used to estimate adjusted Rates Ratios (aIRR. RESULTS: Of 2112 subjects, 53 HCV diagnoses were observed, IR = 0.93/100 py (95%CI: 0.7-1.2. IR increased from 0.88 in 2004-05 to 1.36 in 2010-11 (aIRR = 1.55; 95%CI: 0.37-6.55. In men who have sex with men (MSM from 0.76 to 1.10 (aIRR = 1.45; 95%CI: 0.31-6.82; in heterosexual (HTX subjects from 1.19 to 1.28 (aIRR = 1.08; 95%CI: 0.11-10.24. HCV seroconversion rates decreased from 1.77 to 0.65 (aIRR = 0.37; 95%CI: 0.12-1.11; in MSM from 1.06 to 0.49 (aIRR = 0.46; 95%CI: 0.09-2.31; in HTX from 2.55 to 0.59 (aIRR = 0.23; 95%CI: 0.06-0.98. HCV infection risk was higher for injecting drug users (IDU compared to HTX (aIRR = 9.63;95%CI: 2.9-32.2; among MSM, for subjects aged 40-50 compared to 30 or less (IRR = 3.21; 95%CI: 1.7-6.2; and among HTX, for female sex (aIRR = 2.35; 95%CI: 1.03-5.34 and <200 CD4-count (aIRR = 2.39; 95%CI: 0.83-6.89. CONCLUSION: We report increases in HCV diagnoses rates which seem secondary to intensification of HCV follow-up testing but not to rises in HCV infection rates. HCV IR is higher in IDU. In MSM, HCV IR increases with age. Among HTX, HCV IR is higher in women and in subjects with impaired immunological situation.

  2. Produção de biomassa e rizomas e incidência de "Metsubure" em taro submetido a doses de potássio com e sem adição de cálcio Biomass accumulation, yield and "Metsubure" incidence in taro corms submitted to potassium rates, with and without calcium application

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Francisco HF Pereira

    2006-03-01

    Full Text Available Avaliou-se o efeito de doses crescentes de potássio (K, em solo com e sem aplicação de cálcio (Ca, na produção de biomassa, produção de rizomas, teores de K e Ca e incidência de "Metsubure" em rizomas de taro. O experimento foi conduzido em vasos contendo 10 L de solo, em casa de vegetação, de 19/10/2002 a 20/07/2003, com o taro 'Chinês' (BGH 5928. Foram avaliadas cinco doses de K (0; 150; 300; 600 e 1.200 mg K2O kg-1 de solo, sem e com adição de Ca (0 e 232 mg Ca kg-1 de solo, dispostas no delineamento inteiramente casualizado, em esquema fatorial 5 x 2, com quatro repetições. Produções de biomassa e de rizomas apresentaram comportamento semelhante em resposta às doses de K, em presença e ausência da adição do Ca. Valores máximos de biomassa seca e produção de rizomas foram verificados com a adição de Ca nas doses de 794 e 760 mg K2O kg-1 de solo, respectivamente. Sob baixa dose de K, as massas secas de rizomas e totais, a produção de massa fresca e o número de rizomas-filho por planta foram maiores na ausência do que presença de Ca, sendo esse comportamento invertido a partir das doses de K2O de 85; 46; 202 e 578 mg kg-1 de solo, respectivamente. Na ausência da adição de Ca incrementos na dose de K promoveram redução da concentração de Ca nos rizomas-filho; a concentração de K nesses rizomas aumentou com o incremento na dose de K, independentemente da adição de Ca. Na ausência de adição de Ca e nas doses de 600 e 1.200 mg K2O kg-1 de solo constatou-se a incidência do sintoma de "Metsubure" em 6,56 e 9,84% dos rizomas-filho, respectivamente.The biomass accumulation (cormels and total plant dry weight, yield (fresh weight and number of cormels and "Metsubure" incidence in taro cormels was evaluated on plants submitted to distinct potassium (K fertilizer rates, with and without calcium (Ca application. The experiment was conduced in a glasshouse from 10/19/2002 to 07/20/2003, with the taro 'Chin

  3. 职业病体检人群肝损害的发病率与影响因素分析%Analysis of incidence rate and influencing factors of liver injury of occupation disease health examination

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    李静

    2013-01-01

    higher than those of the control group,there were significant differences (P < 0.05).With the increase of age,the arsenic exceeding standard rate and B ultrasound abnormalities of the workers incidence had a rising trend,there were significant differences between each age groups (P < 0.05).Conclusions Workshop workers have high incidence of occupation poisoning and occupation liver damage,which increases with the exposure period.We should take active preventive measures according to influencing factors.

  4. Evaluating the Effectiveness of an Antimicrobial Stewardship Program on Reducing the Incidence Rate of Healthcare-Associated Clostridium difficile Infection: A Non-Randomized, Stepped Wedge, Single-Site, Observational Study.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Giulio DiDiodato

    Full Text Available The incidence rate of healthcare-associated Clostridium difficile infection (HA-CDI is estimated at 1 in 100 patients. Antibiotic exposure is the most consistently reported risk factor for HA-CDI. Strategies to reduce the risk of HA-CDI have focused on reducing antibiotic utilization. Prospective audit and feedback is a commonly used antimicrobial stewardship intervention (ASi. The impact of this ASi on risk of HA-CDI is equivocal. This study examines the effectiveness of a prospective audit and feedback ASi on reducing the risk of HA-CDI.Single-site, 339 bed community-hospital in Barrie, Ontario, Canada. Primary outcome is HA-CDI incidence rate. Daily prospecti