WorldWideScience

Sample records for nonlinear climatic forcing

  1. Nonlinear Insolation Forcing: A Physical Mechanism for Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, H. S.

    1998-01-01

    This paper focuses on recent advances in the understanding of nonlinear insolation forcing for climate change. The amplitude-frequency resonances in the insolation variations induced by the Earth's changing obliquity are emergent and may provide a physical mechanism to drive the glaciation cycles. To establish the criterion that nonlinear insolation forcing is responsible for major climate changes, the cooperative phenomena between the frequency and amplitude of the insolation are defined as insolation pulsation. Coupling of the insolation frequency and amplitude variations has established an especially new and interesting series of insolation pulses. These pulses would modulate the insolation in such a way that the mode of insolation variations could be locked to generate the 100-kyr ice age cycle which is a long-time geophysical puzzle. The nonlinear behavior of insolation forcing is tested by energy balance and ice sheet climate models and the physical mechanism behind this forcing is explained in terms of pulse duration in the incoming solar radiation. Calculations of the solar energy flux at the top of the atmosphere show that the duration of the negative and positive insolation pulses is about 2 thousand years which is long enough to prolong glaciation into deep ice ages and cause rapid melting of large ice sheets in the high latitudes of the northern hemisphere. We have performed numerical simulations of climate response to nonlinear insolation forcing for the past 2 million years. Our calculated results of temperature fluctuations are in good agreement with the climate cycles as seen in the terrestrial biogenic silica (BDP-96-2) data as well as in the marine oxygen isotope (delta(sup 18)O) records.

  2. Understanding nonlinear responses of the climate system to orbital forcing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rial, J. A.; Anaclerio, C. A.

    2000-12-01

    We have recently introduced the working hypothesis that frequency modulation (FM) of the orbital eccentricity forcing may be one important source of the nonlinearities observed in δ 18O time series from deep-sea sediment cores (J.H. Rial (1999a) Pacemaking the lce Ages by frequency modulation of Earth's orbital eccentricity. Science 285, 564-568). In this paper we shall discuss further evidence of frequency modulation found in data from the Vostok ice core. Analyses of the 430,000-year long, orbitally untuned, time series of CO 2, deuterium, aerosol and methane, suggest frequency modulation of the 41 kyr (0.0244 kyr -1) obliquity forcing by the 413 kyr-eccentricity signal and its harmonics. Conventional and higher-order spectral analyses show that two distinct spectral peaks at ˜29 kyr (0.034 kyr -1) and ˜69 kyr (0.014 kyr -1) and other, smaller peaks surrounding the 41 kyr obliquity peak are harmonically (nonlinearly) related and likely to be FM-generated sidebands of the obliquity signal. All peaks can be closely matched by the spectrum of an appropriately built theoretical FM signal. A preliminary model, based on the classic logistic growth delay differential equation, reproduces the longer period FM effect and the familiar multiply peaked spectra of the eccentricity band. Since the FM effect appears to be a common feature in climate response, finding out its cause may help understand climate dynamics and global climate change.

  3. Studying Climate Response to Forcing by the Nonlinear Dynamical Mode Decomposition

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mukhin, Dmitry; Gavrilov, Andrey; Loskutov, Evgeny; Feigin, Alexander

    2017-04-01

    An analysis of global climate response to external forcing, both anthropogenic (mainly, CO2 and aerosol) and natural (solar and volcanic), is needed for adequate predictions of global climate change. Being complex dynamical system, the climate reacts to external perturbations exciting feedbacks (both positive and negative) making the response non-trivial and poorly predictable. Thus an extraction of internal modes of climate system, investigation of their interaction with external forcings and further modeling and forecast of their dynamics, are all the problems providing the success of climate modeling. In the report the new method for principal mode extraction from climate data is presented. The method is based on the Nonlinear Dynamical Mode (NDM) expansion [1,2], but takes into account a number of external forcings applied to the system. Each NDM is represented by hidden time series governing the observed variability, which, together with external forcing time series, are mapped onto data space. While forcing time series are considered to be known, the hidden unknown signals underlying the internal climate dynamics are extracted from observed data by the suggested method. In particular, it gives us an opportunity to study the evolution of principal system's mode structure in changing external conditions and separate the internal climate variability from trends forced by external perturbations. Furthermore, the modes so obtained can be extrapolated beyond the observational time series, and long-term prognosis of modes' structure including characteristics of interconnections and responses to external perturbations, can be carried out. In this work the method is used for reconstructing and studying the principal modes of climate variability on inter-annual and decadal time scales accounting the external forcings such as anthropogenic emissions, variations of the solar activity and volcanic activity. The structure of the obtained modes as well as their response to

  4. Nonlinear Dynamic Force Spectroscopy

    CERN Document Server

    Björnham, Oscar

    2016-01-01

    Dynamic force spectroscopy (DFS) is an experimental technique that is commonly used to assess information of the strength, energy landscape, and lifetime of noncovalent bio-molecular interactions. DFS traditionally requires an applied force that increases linearly with time so that the bio-complex under investigation is exposed to a constant loading rate. However, tethers or polymers can modulate the applied force in a nonlinear regime. For example, bacterial adhesion pili and polymers with worm-like chain properties are examples of structures that show nonlinear force responses. In these situations, the theory for traditional DFS cannot be readily applied. In this work we expand the theory for DFS to also include nonlinear external forces while still maintaining compatibility with the linear DFS theory. To validate the theory we modeled a bio-complex expressed on a stiff, an elastic and a worm-like chain polymer, using Monte Carlo methods, and assessed the corresponding rupture force spectra. It was found th...

  5. Nonlinear responses of southern African rainfall to forcing from Atlantic SST in a high-resolution regional climate model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Williams, C.; Kniveton, D.; Layberry, R.

    2009-04-01

    It is increasingly accepted that any possible climate change will not only have an influence on mean climate but may also significantly alter climatic variability. A change in the distribution and magnitude of extreme rainfall events (associated with changing variability), such as droughts or flooding, may have a far greater impact on human and natural systems than a changing mean. This issue is of particular importance for environmentally vulnerable regions such as southern Africa. The subcontinent is considered especially vulnerable to and ill-equipped (in terms of adaptation) for extreme events, due to a number of factors including extensive poverty, famine, disease and political instability. Rainfall variability is a function of scale, so high spatial and temporal resolution data are preferred to identify extreme events and accurately predict future variability. In this research, high resolution satellite derived rainfall data from the Microwave Infra-Red Algorithm (MIRA) are used as a basis for undertaking model experiments using a state-of-the-art regional climate model. The MIRA dataset covers the period from 1993-2002 and the whole of southern Africa at a spatial resolution of 0.1 degree longitude/latitude. Once the model's ability to reproduce extremes has been assessed, idealised regions of sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies are used to force the model, with the overall aim of investigating the ways in which SST anomalies influence rainfall extremes over southern Africa. In this paper, results from sensitivity testing of the regional climate model's domain size are briefly presented, before a comparison of simulated daily rainfall from the model with the satellite-derived dataset. Secondly, simulations of current climate and rainfall extremes from the model are compared to the MIRA dataset at daily timescales. Finally, the results from the idealised SST experiments are presented, suggesting highly nonlinear associations between rainfall extremes

  6. Climate forcings and feedbacks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hansen, James

    1993-01-01

    Global temperature has increased significantly during the past century. Understanding the causes of observed global temperature change is impossible in the absence of adequate monitoring of changes in global climate forcings and radiative feedbacks. Climate forcings are changes imposed on the planet's energy balance, such as change of incoming sunlight or a human-induced change of surface properties due to deforestation. Radiative feedbacks are radiative changes induced by climate change, such as alteration of cloud properties or the extent of sea ice. Monitoring of global climate forcings and feedbacks, if sufficiently precise and long-term, can provide a very strong constraint on interpretation of observed temperature change. Such monitoring is essential to eliminate uncertainties about the relative importance of various climate change mechanisms including tropospheric sulfate aerosols from burning of coal and oil smoke from slash and burn agriculture, changes of solar irradiance changes of several greenhouse gases, and many other mechanisms. The considerable variability of observed temperature, together with evidence that a substantial portion of this variability is unforced indicates that observations of climate forcings and feedbacks must be continued for decades. Since the climate system responds to the time integral of the forcing, a further requirement is that the observations be carried out continuously. However, precise observations of forcings and feedbacks will also be able to provide valuable conclusions on shorter time scales. For example, knowledge of the climate forcing by increasing CFC's relative to the forcing by changing ozone is important to policymakers, as is information on the forcing by CO2 relative to the forcing by sulfate aerosols. It will also be possible to obtain valuable tests of climate models on short time scales, if there is precise monitoring of all forcings and feedbacks during and after events such as a large volcanic eruption

  7. Risks of non-linear climate change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Van Ham, J.; Van Beers, R.J.; Builtjes, P.J.H.; Koennen, G.P.; Oerlemans, J.; Roemer, M.G.M. [TNO-SCMO, Delft (Netherlands)

    1995-12-31

    Climate forcing as a result of increased concentrations of greenhouse gases has been primarily addressed as a problem of a possibly warmer climate. So far, such change has been obscured in observations, possibly as a result of natural climate variability and masking by aerosols. Consequently, projections of the effect of climate forcing have to be based on modelling, more specifically by applying Global Circulation Models GCMs. These GCMs do not cover all possible feedbacks; neither do they address all specific possible effects of climate forcing. The investigation reviews possible non-linear climate change which does not fall within the coverage of present GCMs. The review includes the potential relevance of changes in biogeochemical cycles, aerosol and cloud feedback, albedo instability, ice-flow instability, changes in the thermohaline circulation and changes resulting from stratospheric cooling. It is noted that these changes may have different time horizons. Three from the investigated issues provide indications for a possible non-linear change. On the decadal scale stratospheric cooling, which is the result of the enhanced greenhouse effect, in combination with a depleted ozone layer, could provide a positive feedback to further ozone depletion, in particular in the Arctic. Decreasing albedo on the Greenland ice sheet may enhance the runoff from this ice sheet significantly in case of warming on a timescale of a few centuries. Changes in ocean circulation in the North Atlantic could seasonally more than compensate a global warming of 3C in North-West Europe on a timescale of centuries to a millennium. 263 refs.

  8. Climate Forcing Data

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Records of changes in solar irradiance, volcanic aerosols, atmospheric trace gases, and other properties thought to influence climate in the past. Parameter keywords...

  9. FORCED OSCILLATIONS IN NONLINEAR FEEDBACK CONTROL SYSTEM

    Science.gov (United States)

    Since a nonlinear feedback control system may possess more than one type of forced oscillations, it is highly desirable to investigate the type of...method for finding the existence of forced oscillations and response curve characteristics of a nonlinear feedback control system by means of finding the...second order feedback control system are investigated; the fundamental frequency forced oscillation for a higher order system and the jump resonance

  10. Nonlinear structural analysis using integrated force method

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    N R B Krishnam Raju; J Nagabhushanam

    2000-08-01

    Though the use of the integrated force method for linear investigations is well-recognised, no efforts were made to extend this method to nonlinear structural analysis. This paper presents the attempts to use this method for analysing nonlinear structures. General formulation of nonlinear structural analysis is given. Typically highly nonlinear bench-mark problems are considered. The characteristic matrices of the elements used in these problems are developed and later these structures are analysed. The results of the analysis are compared with the results of the displacement method. It has been demonstrated that the integrated force method is equally viable and efficient as compared to the displacement method.

  11. Climate hypersensitivity to solar forcing?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    W. Soon

    Full Text Available We compare the equilibrium climate responses of a quasi-dynamical energy balance model to radiative forcing by equivalent changes in CO2, solar total irradiance (Stot and solar UV (SUV. The response is largest in the SUV case, in which the imposed UV radiative forcing is preferentially absorbed in the layer above 250 mb, in contrast to the weak response from global-columnar radiative loading by increases in CO2 or Stot. The hypersensitive response of the climate system to solar UV forcing is caused by strongly coupled feedback involving vertical static stability, tropical thick cirrus ice clouds and stratospheric ozone. This mechanism offers a plausible explanation of the apparent hypersensitivity of climate to solar forcing, as suggested by analyses of recent climatic records. The model hypersensitivity strongly depends on climate parameters, especially cloud radiative properties, but is effective for arguably realistic values of these parameters. The proposed solar forcing mechanism should be further confirmed using other models (e.g., general circulation models that may better capture radiative and dynamical couplings of the troposphere and stratosphere.

    Key words: Meteorology and atmospheric dynamics (climatology · general or miscellaneous · Solar physics · astrophysics · and astronomy (ultraviolet emissions

  12. Nonlinear regimes of forced magnetic reconnection

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vekstein, G., E-mail: g.vekstein@manchester.ac.uk [JBCA, School of Physics and Astronomy, University of Manchester, Manchester M13 9PL (United Kingdom); STEL, Nagoya University, Nagoya, Aichi 464-8601 (Japan); Kusano, K. [STEL, Nagoya University, Nagoya, Aichi 464-8601 (Japan)

    2015-09-15

    This letter presents a self-consistent description of nonlinear forced magnetic reconnection in Taylor's model of this process. If external boundary perturbation is strong enough, nonlinearity in the current sheet evolution becomes important before resistive effects come into play. This terminates the current sheet shrinking that takes place at the linear stage and brings about its nonlinear equilibrium with a finite thickness. Then, in theory, this equilibrium is destroyed by a finite plasma resistivity during the skin-time, and further reconnection proceeds in the Rutherford regime. However, realization of such a scenario is unlikely because of the plasmoid instability, which is fast enough to develop before the transition to the Rutherford phase occurs. The suggested analytical theory is entirely different from all previous studies and provides proper interpretation of the presently available numerical simulations of nonlinear forced magnetic reconnection.

  13. Stability of Nonlinear Force-Free Magnetic Fields

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    胡友秋

    2001-01-01

    Based on the magnetohydrodynamic energy principle, it is proved that Gold-Hoyle's nonlinear force-free magnetic field is unstable. This disproves the sufficient criterion for stability of nonlinear force-free magnetic fields given by Kriiger that a nonlinear force-free field is stable if the maximum absolute value of the force-free factor is smaller than the lowest eigenvalue associated with the domain of interest.

  14. Solar Forcing of Climate. 2: Evidence from the Past

    Science.gov (United States)

    Versteegh, Gerard J. M.

    2005-10-01

    which, at least for the northern hemisphere is evident in southward extension of the Atlantic ice cover. The forcing-induced migration of climate regimes implies that solar forcing induces a non linear response at a given location. This complicates the assessment of Sun-climate relations and calls for nonlinear analysis of multiple long and high resolution records at regional scale. Unfortunately nonlinear Sun-climate analysis is still a largely barren field, despite the fact that major global climate configurations (e.g. the ENSO and AO) follow nonlinear dynamics. The strength of solar forcing relative to other forcings (e.g. volcanism, ocean circulation patterns, tides, and geomagnetism) is another source of dynamic responses. Notably the climatic effects of tides and geomagnetism are hitherto largely enigmatic. Few but well-dated studies suggest almost instantaneous, climatic deteriorations in response to rapid decreases in solar activity. Such early responses put severe limits to the solar forcing mechanisms and the extent of this phenomenon should be a key issue for future Sun-climate studies.

  15. Radiative Forcing and Climate Response: From Paleoclimate to Future Climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Caldeira, K.; Cao, L.

    2011-12-01

    The concept of radiative forcing was introduced to allow comparison of climate effects of different greenhouse gases. In the classic view, radiative forcing is applied to the climate system and the climate responds to this forcing, approaching some equilibrium temperature change that is the product of the radiative forcing times the 'climate sensitivity' to radiative forcing. However, this classic view is oversimplified in several respects. Climate forcing and response often cannot be clearly separated. When carbon dioxide is added to the atmosphere, within days, the increased absorption of longwave radiation begins to warm the interior of the troposphere, affecting various tropospheric properties. Especially in the case of aerosols, it has been found that considering rapid tropospheric adjustment gives a better predictor of "equilibrium" climate change than does the classic definition of radiative forcing. Biogeochemistry also provides additional feedbacks on the climate system. It is generally thought that biogeochemistry helps diminish climate sensitivity to a carbon dioxide emission, since carbon dioxide tends to stimulate carbon dioxide uptake by land plants and the ocean. However, there is potential to destabilize carbon locked up in permafrost and at least some possibility to destabilize methane in continental shelf sediments. Furthermore, wetlands may provide a significant methane feedback. These and other possible biogeochemical feedbacks have the potential to greatly increase the sensitivity of the climate system to carbon dioxide emissions. As time scales extend out to millennia, the large ice sheets can begin to play an important role. In addition to affecting atmospheric flows by their sheer bulk, ice sheets tend to reflect a lot of energy to space. If carbon dioxide remains in the atmosphere long enough, there is potential to melt back the large ice sheets, which would add additional warming to the climate system. It is likely that these millennial

  16. Forced migrations caused by climate change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Neven Tandarić

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available The consequences of climate change are becoming more and more pronounced, causing various environmental and social changes. One of the major and globally most noticeable changes is the intensification of forced migration caused by climate change. Such forced migrants, due to international legislation that has no built-in criteria to regulate the status of refugees due to environmental reasons and also climate change, cannot achieve this status and are becoming a problem of the entire international community, leading to significant social, economic, political and cultural changes at a global scale.

  17. Inertial Force Coupling to Nonlinear Aeroelasticity of Flexible Wing Aircraft

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nguyen, Nhan T.; Ting, Eric

    2016-01-01

    This paper investigates the inertial force effect on nonlinear aeroelasticity of flexible wing aircraft. The geometric are nonlinearity due to rotational and tension stiffening. The effect of large bending deflection will also be investigated. Flutter analysis will be conducted for a truss-braced wing aircraft concept with tension stiffening and inertial force coupling.

  18. Collapse in a forced three-dimensional nonlinear Schrodinger equation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lushnikov, P.M.; Saffman, M.

    2000-01-01

    We derive sufficient conditions for the occurrence of collapse in a forced three-dimensional nonlinear Schrodinger equation without dissipation. Numerical studies continue the results to the case of finite dissipation.......We derive sufficient conditions for the occurrence of collapse in a forced three-dimensional nonlinear Schrodinger equation without dissipation. Numerical studies continue the results to the case of finite dissipation....

  19. Irrigation as an Historical Climate Forcing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cook, Benjamin I.; Shukla, Sonali P.; Puma, Michael J.; Nazarenko, Larissa S.

    2014-01-01

    Irrigation is the single largest anthropogenic water use, a modification of the land surface that significantly affects surface energy budgets, the water cycle, and climate. Irrigation, however, is typically not included in standard historical general circulation model (GCM) simulations along with other anthropogenic and natural forcings. To investigate the importance of irrigation as an anthropogenic climate forcing, we conduct two 5-member ensemble GCM experiments. Both are setup identical to the historical forced (anthropogenic plus natural) scenario used in version 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, but in one experiment we also add water to the land surface using a dataset of historically estimated irrigation rates. Irrigation has a negligible effect on the global average radiative balance at the top of the atmosphere, but causes significant cooling of global average surface air temperatures over land and dampens regional warming trends. This cooling is regionally focused and is especially strong in Western North America, the Mediterranean, the Middle East, and Asia. Irrigation enhances cloud cover and precipitation in these same regions, except for summer in parts of Monsoon Asia, where irrigation causes a reduction in monsoon season precipitation. Irrigation cools the surface, reducing upward fluxes of longwave radiation (increasing net longwave), and increases cloud cover, enhancing shortwave reflection (reducing net shortwave). The relative magnitude of these two processes causes regional increases (northern India) or decreases (Central Asia, China) in energy availability at the surface and top of the atmosphere. Despite these changes in net radiation, however, climate responses are due primarily to larger magnitude shifts in the Bowen ratio from sensible to latent heating. Irrigation impacts on temperature, precipitation, and other climate variables are regionally significant, even while other anthropogenic forcings (anthropogenic aerosols

  20. Irrigation as an historical climate forcing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cook, Benjamin I.; Shukla, Sonali P.; Puma, Michael J.; Nazarenko, Larissa S.

    2015-03-01

    Irrigation is the single largest anthropogenic water use, a modification of the land surface that significantly affects surface energy budgets, the water cycle, and climate. Irrigation, however, is typically not included in standard historical general circulation model (GCM) simulations along with other anthropogenic and natural forcings. To investigate the importance of irrigation as an anthropogenic climate forcing, we conduct two 5-member ensemble GCM experiments. Both are setup identical to the historical forced (anthropogenic plus natural) scenario used in version 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, but in one experiment we also add water to the land surface using a dataset of historically estimated irrigation rates. Irrigation has a negligible effect on the global average radiative balance at the top of the atmosphere, but causes significant cooling of global average surface air temperatures over land and dampens regional warming trends. This cooling is regionally focused and is especially strong in Western North America, the Mediterranean, the Middle East, and Asia. Irrigation enhances cloud cover and precipitation in these same regions, except for summer in parts of Monsoon Asia, where irrigation causes a reduction in monsoon season precipitation. Irrigation cools the surface, reducing upward fluxes of longwave radiation (increasing net longwave), and increases cloud cover, enhancing shortwave reflection (reducing net shortwave). The relative magnitude of these two processes causes regional increases (northern India) or decreases (Central Asia, China) in energy availability at the surface and top of the atmosphere. Despite these changes in net radiation, however, climate responses are due primarily to larger magnitude shifts in the Bowen ratio from sensible to latent heating. Irrigation impacts on temperature, precipitation, and other climate variables are regionally significant, even while other anthropogenic forcings (anthropogenic aerosols

  1. Nonlinear Force-free Coronal Magnetic Stereoscopy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chifu, Iulia; Wiegelmann, Thomas; Inhester, Bernd

    2017-03-01

    Insights into the 3D structure of the solar coronal magnetic field have been obtained in the past by two completely different approaches. The first approach are nonlinear force-free field (NLFFF) extrapolations, which use photospheric vector magnetograms as boundary condition. The second approach uses stereoscopy of coronal magnetic loops observed in EUV coronal images from different vantage points. Both approaches have their strengths and weaknesses. Extrapolation methods are sensitive to noise and inconsistencies in the boundary data, and the accuracy of stereoscopy is affected by the ability of identifying the same structure in different images and by the separation angle between the view directions. As a consequence, for the same observational data, the 3D coronal magnetic fields computed with the two methods do not necessarily coincide. In an earlier work (Paper I) we extended our NLFFF optimization code by including stereoscopic constrains. The method was successfully tested with synthetic data, and within this work, we apply the newly developed code to a combined data set from SDO/HMI, SDO/AIA, and the two STEREO spacecraft. The extended method (called S-NLFFF) contains an additional term that monitors and minimizes the angle between the local magnetic field direction and the orientation of the 3D coronal loops reconstructed by stereoscopy. We find that when we prescribe the shape of the 3D stereoscopically reconstructed loops, the S-NLFFF method leads to a much better agreement between the modeled field and the stereoscopically reconstructed loops. We also find an appreciable decrease by a factor of two in the angle between the current and the magnetic field. This indicates the improved quality of the force-free solution obtained by S-NLFFF.

  2. Paradoxical stabilization of forced oscillations by strong nonlinear friction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Esirkepov, Timur Zh.; Bulanov, Sergei V.

    2017-08-01

    In a dissipative dynamic system driven by an oscillating force, a strong nonlinear highly oscillatory friction force can create a quasi-steady tug, which is always directed opposite to the ponderomotive force induced due to a spatial inhomogeneity of oscillations. When the friction-induced tug exceeds the ponderomotive force, the friction stabilizes the system oscillations near the maxima of the oscillation spatial amplitude of the driving force.

  3. Ultrasensitive hysteretic force sensing with parametric nonlinear oscillators

    Science.gov (United States)

    Papariello, Luca; Zilberberg, Oded; Eichler, Alexander; Chitra, R.

    2016-08-01

    We propose a method for linear detection of weak forces using parametrically driven nonlinear resonators. The method is based on a peculiar feature in the response of the resonator to a near resonant periodic external force. This feature stems from a complex interplay among the parametric drive, external force, and nonlinearities. For weak parametric drive, the response exhibits the standard Duffing-like single jump hysteresis. For stronger drive amplitudes, we find a qualitatively new double jump hysteresis which arises from stable solutions generated by the cubic Duffing nonlinearity. The additional jump exists only if the external force is present and the frequency at which it occurs depends linearly on the amplitude of the external force, permitting a straightforward ultrasensitive detection of weak forces. With state-of-the-art nanomechanical resonators, our scheme should permit force detection in the attonewton range.

  4. Climate sensitivity and climate change under strong forcing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boer, G. J.; Hamilton, K.; Zhu, W.

    2005-06-01

    A version of the National Centre for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) coupled climate model is integrated under current climate conditions and in a series of experiments with climate forcings ranging from modest to very strong. The purpose of the experiments is to investigate the nature and behaviour of the climate feedback/sensitivity of the model, its evolution with time and climate state, the robustness of model parameterizations as forcing levels increase, and the possibility of a “runaway” warming under strong forcing. The model is integrated for 50 years, or to failure, after increasing the solar constant by 2.5, 10, 15, 25, 35, and 45% of its control value. The model successfully completes 50 years of integration for the 2.5, 10, 15, and 25% solar constant increases but fails for increases of 35% and 45%. The effective global climate sensitivity evolves with time and analysis indicates that a new equilibrium will be obtained for the 2.5, 10, and 15% cases but that runaway warming is underway for the 25% increase in solar constant. Feedback processes are analysed both locally and globally in terms of longwave and shortwave, clear-sky/surface, and cloud forcing components. Feedbacks in the system must be negative overall and of sufficient strength to balance the positive forcing if the system is to attain a new equilibrium. Longwave negative feedback processes strengthen in a reasonably linear fashion as temperature increases but shortwave feedback processes do not. In particular, solar cloud feedback becomes less negative and, for the 25% forcing case, eventually becomes positive, resulting in temperatures that “run away”. The conditions under which a runaway climate warming might occur have previously been investigated using simpler models. For sufficiently strong forcing, the greenhouse effect of increasing water vapour in a warmer atmosphere is expected to overwhelm the negative feedback of the longwave cooling to space as temperature increases. This is

  5. Illinois task force on global climate change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Griffin, B.S. [Illinois Dept. of Natural Resources, Springfield, IL (United States)

    1996-12-31

    The purpose of this report is to document progress in the areas of national policy development, emissions reduction, research and education, and adaptation, and to identify specific actions that will be undertaken to implement the Illinois state action plan. The task force has been tracking national and international climate change policy, and helping shape national policy agenda. Identification and implementation of cost-effective mitigation measures has been performed for emissions reduction. In the area of research and education, the task force is developing the capacity to measure climate change indicators, maintaining and enhancing Illinois relevant research, and strengthening climate change education. Activities relevant to adaptation to new policy include strengthening water laws and planning for adaptation. 6 figs., 4 tabs.

  6. NONLINEAR DYNAMICS OF CARBON NANOTUBES UNDER LARGE ELECTROSTATIC FORCE

    KAUST Repository

    Xu, Tiantian

    2015-06-01

    Because of the inherent nonlinearities involving the behavior of CNTs when excited by electrostatic forces, modeling and simulating their behavior is challenging. The complicated form of the electrostatic force describing the interaction of their cylindrical shape, forming upper electrodes, to lower electrodes poises serious computational challenges. This presents an obstacle against applying and using several nonlinear dynamics tools typically used to analyze the behavior of complicated nonlinear systems undergoing large motion, such as shooting, continuation, and integrity analysis techniques. This works presents an attempt to resolve this issue. We present an investigation of the nonlinear dynamics of carbon nanotubes when actuated by large electrostatic forces. We study expanding the complicated form of the electrostatic force into enough number of terms of the Taylor series. Then, we utilize this form along with an Euler-Bernoulli beam model to study for the first time the dynamic behavior of CNTs when excited by large electrostatic force. The geometric nonlinearity and the nonlinear electrostatic force are considered. An efficient reduced-order model (ROM) based on the Galerkin method is developed and utilized to simulate the static and dynamic responses of the CNTs. Several results are generated demonstrating softening and hardening behavior of the CNTs near their primary and secondary resonances. The effects of the DC and AC voltage loads on the behavior have been studied. The impacts of the initial slack level and CNT diameter are also demonstrated.

  7. The Precession Index and a Nonlinear Energy Balance Climate Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rubincam, David

    2004-01-01

    A simple nonlinear energy balance climate model yields a precession index-like term in the temperature. Despite its importance in the geologic record, the precession index e sin (Omega)S, where e is the Earth's orbital eccentricity and (Omega)S is the Sun's perigee in the geocentric frame, is not present in the insolation at the top of the atmosphere. Hence there is no one-for-one mapping of 23,000 and 19,000 year periodicities from the insolation to the paleoclimate record; a nonlinear climate model is needed to produce these long periods. A nonlinear energy balance climate model with radiative terms of form T n, where T is surface temperature and n less than 1, does produce e sin (omega)S terms in temperature; the e sin (omega)S terms are called Seversmith psychroterms. Without feedback mechanisms, the model achieves extreme values of 0.64 K at the maximum orbital eccentricity of 0.06, cooling one hemisphere while simultaneously warming the other; the hemisphere over which perihelion occurs is the cooler. In other words, the nonlinear energy balance model produces long-term cooling in the northern hemisphere when the Sun's perihelion is near northern summer solstice and long-term warming in the northern hemisphere when the aphelion is near northern summer solstice. (This behavior is similar to the inertialess gray body which radiates like T 4, but the amplitude is much lower for the energy balance model because of its thermal inertia.) This seemingly paradoxical behavior works against the standard Milankovitch model, which requires cool northern summers (Sun far from Earth in northern summer) to build up northern ice sheets, so that if the standard model is correct it must be more efficient than previously thought. Alternatively, the new mechanism could possibly be dominant and indicate southern hemisphere control of the northern ice sheets, wherein the southern oceans undergo a long-term cooling when the Sun is far from the Earth during northern summer. The cold

  8. Collisional Effects on Nonlinear Ion Drag Force for Small Grains

    CERN Document Server

    Hutchinson, I H

    2013-01-01

    The ion drag force arising from plasma flow past an embedded spherical grain is calculated self-consistently and non-linearly using particle in cell codes, accounting for ion-neutral collisions. Using ion velocity distribution appropriate for ion drift driven by a force field gives wake potential and force greatly different from a shifted Maxwellian distribution, regardless of collisionality. The low-collisionality forces are shown to be consistent with estimates based upon cross-sections for scattering in a Yukawa (shielded) grain field, but only if non-linear shielding length is used. Finite collisionality initially enhances the drag force, but only by up to a factor of 2. Larger collisionality eventually reduces the drag force. In the collisional regime, the drift distribution gives larger drag than the shift distribution even at velocities where their collisionless drags are equal. Comprehensive practical analytic formulas for force that fit the calculations are provided.

  9. Detailed Study of Amplitude Nonlinearity in Piezoresistive Force Sensors

    OpenAIRE

    Pablo Gonzalez De Santos; Elena Garcia; Luis Emmi; Leonel Paredes-Madrid

    2011-01-01

    This article upgrades the RC linear model presented for piezoresistive force sensors. Amplitude nonlinearity is found in sensor conductance, and a characteristic equation is formulated for modeling its response under DC-driving voltages below 1 V. The feasibility of such equation is tested on four FlexiForce model A201-100 piezoresistive sensors by varying the sourcing voltage and the applied forces. Since the characteristic equation proves to be valid, a method is presented for obtaining a s...

  10. Laser Plasma Physics - Forces and Nonlinear Principle

    CERN Document Server

    Hora, Heinrich

    2014-01-01

    This work is an electronic pre-publication of a book manuscript being under consideration in order to provide information to interested researchers about a review of mechanical forces in plasmas by electro-dynamic fields. Beginning with Kelvin's ponderomotive force of 1845 in electrostatics, the hydrodynamic force in a plasma is linked with quadratic force quantities of electric and magnetic fields. Hydrodynamics is interlinked with single particle motion of plasma particles electric field generation and double layers and sheaths due to properties of inhomogeneous plasmas. Consequences relate to laser driven particle acceleration and fusion energy. Beyond the very broad research field of fusion using nanosecond laser pulses based on thermodynamics, the new picosecond pulses of ultrahigh power opened a categorically different non-thermal interaction finally permitting proton-boron fusion with eliminating problems of nuclear radiation.

  11. Nonlinear Dimensionality Reduction Methods in Climate Data Analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Ross, Ian

    2008-01-01

    Linear dimensionality reduction techniques, notably principal component analysis, are widely used in climate data analysis as a means to aid in the interpretation of datasets of high dimensionality. These linear methods may not be appropriate for the analysis of data arising from nonlinear processes occurring in the climate system. Numerous techniques for nonlinear dimensionality reduction have been developed recently that may provide a potentially useful tool for the identification of low-dimensional manifolds in climate data sets arising from nonlinear dynamics. In this thesis I apply three such techniques to the study of El Nino/Southern Oscillation variability in tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures and thermocline depth, comparing observational data with simulations from coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models from the CMIP3 multi-model ensemble. The three methods used here are a nonlinear principal component analysis (NLPCA) approach based on neural networks, the Isomap isometric mappin...

  12. Nonlinear Forced Vibration Analysis for Thin Rectangular Plate on Nonlinear Elastic Foundation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhong Zhengqiang

    2013-02-01

    Full Text Available Nonlinear forced vibration is analyzed for thin rectangular plate with four free edges on nonlinear elastic foundation. Based on Hamilton variation principle, equations of nonlinear vibration motion for thin rectangular plate under harmonic loads on nonlinear elastic foundation are established. In the case of four free edges, viable expressions of trial functions for this specification are proposed, satisfying all boundary conditions. Then, equations are transformed to a system of nonlinear algebraic equations by using Galerkin method and are solved by using harmonic balance method. In the analysis of numerical computations, the effect on the amplitude-frequency characteristic curve due to change of the structural parameters of plate, parameters of foundation and parameters of excitation force are discussed.

  13. NON-LINEAR FORCED VIBRATION OF AXIALLY MOVING VISCOELASTIC BEAMS

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Yang Xiaodong; Chen Li-Qun

    2006-01-01

    The non-linear forced vibration of axially moving viscoelastic beams excited by the vibration of the supporting foundation is investigated. A non-linear partial-differential equation governing the transverse motion is derived from the dynamical, constitutive equations and geometrical relations. By referring to the quasi-static stretch assumption, the partial-differential non-linearity is reduced to an integro-partial-differential one. The method of multiple scales is directly applied to the governing equations with the two types of non-linearity, respectively. The amplitude of near- and exact-resonant steady state is analyzed by use of the solvability condition of eliminating secular terms. Numerical results are presented to show the contributions of foundation vibration amplitude, viscoelastic damping, and nonlinearity to the response amplitude for the first and the second mode.

  14. Climate Forcings and Climate Sensitivities Diagnosed from Coupled Climate Model Integrations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Forster, P M A F; Taylor, K E

    2006-07-25

    A simple technique is proposed for calculating global mean climate forcing from transient integrations of coupled Atmosphere Ocean General Circulation Models (AOGCMs). This 'climate forcing' differs from the conventionally defined radiative forcing as it includes semi-direct effects that account for certain short timescale responses in the troposphere. Firstly, we calculate a climate feedback term from reported values of 2 x CO{sub 2} radiative forcing and surface temperature time series from 70-year simulations by twenty AOGCMs. In these simulations carbon dioxide is increased by 1%/year. The derived climate feedback agrees well with values that we diagnose from equilibrium climate change experiments of slab-ocean versions of the same models. These climate feedback terms are associated with the fast, quasi-linear response of lapse rate, clouds, water vapor and albedo to global surface temperature changes. The importance of the feedbacks is gauged by their impact on the radiative fluxes at the top of the atmosphere. We find partial compensation between longwave and shortwave feedback terms that lessens the inter-model differences in the equilibrium climate sensitivity. There is also some indication that the AOGCMs overestimate the strength of the positive longwave feedback. These feedback terms are then used to infer the shortwave and longwave time series of climate forcing in 20th and 21st Century simulations in the AOGCMs. We validate the technique using conventionally calculated forcing time series from four AOGCMs. In these AOGCMs the shortwave and longwave climate forcings we diagnose agree with the conventional forcing time series within {approx}10%. The shortwave forcing time series exhibit order of magnitude variations between the AOGCMs, differences likely related to how both natural forcings and/or anthropogenic aerosol effects are included. There are also factor of two differences in the longwave climate forcing time series, which may indicate

  15. Nonlinear response of summer temperature to Holocene insolation forcing in Alaska.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clegg, Benjamin F; Kelly, Ryan; Clarke, Gina H; Walker, Ian R; Hu, Feng Sheng

    2011-11-29

    Regional climate responses to large-scale forcings, such as precessional changes in solar irradiation and increases in anthropogenic greenhouse gases, may be nonlinear as a result of complex interactions among earth system components. Such nonlinear behaviors constitute a major source of climate "surprises" with important socioeconomic and ecological implications. Paleorecords are key for elucidating patterns and mechanisms of nonlinear responses to radiative forcing, but their utility has been greatly limited by the paucity of quantitative temperature reconstructions. Here we present Holocene July temperature reconstructions on the basis of midge analysis of sediment cores from three Alaskan lakes. Results show that summer temperatures during 10,000-5,500 calibrated years (cal) B.P. were generally lower than modern and that peak summer temperatures around 5,000 were followed by a decreasing trend toward the present. These patterns stand in stark contrast with the trend of precessional insolation, which decreased by ∼10% from 10,000 y ago to the present. Cool summers before 5,500 cal B.P. coincided with extensive summer ice cover in the western Arctic Ocean, persistence of a positive phase of the Arctic Oscillation, predominantly La Niña-like conditions, and variation in the position of the Alaskan treeline. These results illustrate nonlinear responses of summer temperatures to Holocene insolation radiative forcing in the Alaskan sub-Arctic, possibly because of state changes in the Arctic Oscillation and El Niño-Southern Oscillation and associated land-atmosphere-ocean feedbacks.

  16. Nonlinear evolution characteristics of the climate system on the interdecadal-centennial timescale

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Gao Xin-Quan; Zhang Wen

    2005-01-01

    To better understand the physical mechanism of the climate change on interdecadal-centennial timescale, this paper focuses on analysing and modelling the evolution characteristics of the climate change. The method of wavelet transform is used to pick out the interdecadal timescale oscillations from long-term instrumental observations, natural proxy records, and modelling series. The modelling series derived from the most simplified nonlinear climatic model are used to identify whether modifications are concerned with some forcings such as the solar radiation on the climate system. The results show that two major oscillations exist in various observations and model series, namely the 2030a and the 60-70a timescale respectively, and these quasi-periodicities are modulated with time. Further, modelling results suggest that the originations of these oscillations are not directly linked with the periodic variation of solar radiations such as the 1-year cycle, the 11-year cycle, and others, but possibly induced by the internal nonlinear effects of the climate system. It seems that the future study on the genesis of the climate change with interdecadal-centennial timescale should focus on the internal nonlinear dynamics in the climate system.

  17. Testing For The Linearity of Responses To Multiple Anthropogenic Climate Forcings

    Science.gov (United States)

    Forest, C. E.; Stone, P. H.; Sokolov, A. P.

    To test whether climate forcings are additive, we compare climate model simulations in which anthropogenic forcings are applied individually and in combination. Tests are performed with different values for climate system properties (climate sensitivity and rate of heat uptake by the deep ocean) as well as for different strengths of the net aerosol forcing, thereby testing for the dependence of linearity on these properties. The MIT 2D Land-Ocean Climate Model used in this study consists of a zonally aver- aged statistical-dynamical atmospheric model coupled to a mixed-layer Q-flux ocean model, with heat anomalies diffused into the deep ocean. Following our previous stud- ies, the anthropogenic forcings are the changes in concentrations of greenhouse gases (1860-1995), sulfate aerosol (1860-1995), and stratospheric and tropospheric ozone (1979-1995). The sulfate aerosol forcing is applied as a surface albedo change. For an aerosol forcing of -1.0 W/m2 and an effective ocean diffusitivity of 2.5 cm2/s, the nonlinearity of the response of global-mean surface temperatures to the combined forcing shows a strong dependence on climate sensitivity. The fractional change in decadal averages ([(TG + TS + TO) - TGSO]/TGSO) for the 1986-1995 period compared to pre-industrial times are 0.43, 0.90, and 1.08 with climate sensitiv- ities of 3.0, 4.5, and 6.2 C, respectively. The values of TGSO for these three cases o are 0.52, 0.62, and 0.76 C. The dependence of linearity on climate system properties, o the role of climate system feedbacks, and the implications for the detection of climate system's response to individual forcings will be presented. Details of the model and forcings can be found at http://web.mit.edu/globalchange/www/.

  18. Oscillation criteria for first-order forced nonlinear difference equations

    OpenAIRE

    Grace Said R; Agarwal Ravi P.; Smith Tim

    2006-01-01

    Some new criteria for the oscillation of first-order forced nonlinear difference equations of the form Δx(n)+q1(n)xμ(n+1) = q2(n)xλ(n+1)+e(n), where λ, μ are the ratios of positive odd integers 0 <μ < 1 and λ > 1, are established.

  19. Realising traceable electrostatic forces despite non-linear balance motion

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stirling, Julian; Shaw, Gordon A.

    2017-05-01

    Direct realisation of force, traceable to fundamental constants via electromagnetic balances, is a key goal of the proposed redefinition of the international system of units (SI). This will allow small force metrology to be performed using an electrostatic force balance (EFB) rather than subdivision of larger forces. Such a balance uses the electrostatic force across a capacitor to balance an external force. In this paper we model the capacitance of a concentric cylinder EFB design as a function of the displacement of its free electrode, accounting for the arcuate motion produced by parallelogram linkages commonly used in EFB mechanisms. From this model we suggest new fitting procedures to reduce uncertainties arising from non-linear motion as well as methods to identify misalignment of the mechanism. Experimental studies on both a test capacitor and the NIST EFB validate the model.

  20. Detailed Study of Amplitude Nonlinearity in Piezoresistive Force Sensors

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pablo Gonzalez De Santos

    2011-09-01

    Full Text Available This article upgrades the RC linear model presented for piezoresistive force sensors. Amplitude nonlinearity is found in sensor conductance, and a characteristic equation is formulated for modeling its response under DC-driving voltages below 1 V. The feasibility of such equation is tested on four FlexiForce model A201-100 piezoresistive sensors by varying the sourcing voltage and the applied forces. Since the characteristic equation proves to be valid, a method is presented for obtaining a specific sensitivity in sensor response by calculating the appropriate sourcing voltage and feedback resistor in the driving circuit; this provides plug-and-play capabilities to the device and reduces the start-up time of new applications where piezoresistive devices are to be used. Finally, a method for bypassing the amplitude nonlinearity is presented with the aim of reading sensor capacitance.

  1. Detailed study of amplitude nonlinearity in piezoresistive force sensors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paredes-Madrid, Leonel; Emmi, Luis; Garcia, Elena; de Santos, Pablo Gonzalez

    2011-01-01

    This article upgrades the RC linear model presented for piezoresistive force sensors. Amplitude nonlinearity is found in sensor conductance, and a characteristic equation is formulated for modeling its response under DC-driving voltages below 1 V. The feasibility of such equation is tested on four FlexiForce model A201-100 piezoresistive sensors by varying the sourcing voltage and the applied forces. Since the characteristic equation proves to be valid, a method is presented for obtaining a specific sensitivity in sensor response by calculating the appropriate sourcing voltage and feedback resistor in the driving circuit; this provides plug-and-play capabilities to the device and reduces the start-up time of new applications where piezoresistive devices are to be used. Finally, a method for bypassing the amplitude nonlinearity is presented with the aim of reading sensor capacitance.

  2. Nonlinearities of biopolymer gels increase the range of force transmission

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Xinpeng; Safran, Samuel A.

    2015-09-01

    We present a model of biopolymer gels that includes two types of elastic nonlinearities, stiffening under extension and softening (due to buckling) under compression, to predict the elastic anisotropy induced by both external as well as internal (e.g., due to cell contractility) stresses in biopolymer gels. We show how the stretch-induced anisotropy and the strain-stiffening nonlinearity increase both the amplitude and power-law range of transmission of internal, contractile, cellular forces, and relate this to recent experiments.

  3. The importance of ENSO nonlinearities in tropical pacific response to external forcing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karamperidou, Christina; Jin, Fei-Fei; Conroy, Jessica L.

    2016-12-01

    Tropical Pacific climate varies at interannual, decadal and centennial time scales, and exerts a significant influence on global climate. Climate model projections exhibit a large spread in the magnitude and pattern of tropical Pacific warming in response to greenhouse-gas forcing. Here, we show that part of this spread can be explained by model biases in the simulation of interannual variability, namely the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon. We show that models that exhibit strong ENSO nonlinearities simulate a more accurate balance of ENSO feedbacks, and their projected tropical Pacific sea surface temperature warming pattern is closely linked to their projected ENSO response. Within this group, models with ENSO nonlinearity close to observed project stronger warming of the cold tongue, whereas models with stronger than observed ENSO nonlinearity project a more uniform warming of the tropical Pacific. These differences are also manifest in the projected changes of precipitation patterns, thereby highlighting that ENSO simulation biases may lead to potentially biased projections in long-term precipitation trends, with great significance for regional climate adaptation strategies.

  4. Nonlinear softening as a predictive precursor to climate tipping

    CERN Document Server

    Sieber, Jan

    2011-01-01

    Approaching a dangerous bifurcation, from which a dynamical system such as the Earth's climate will jump (tip) to a different state, the current stable state lies within a shrinking basin of attraction. Persistence of the state becomes increasingly precarious in the presence of noisy disturbances. We consider an underlying potential, as defined theoretically for a saddle-node fold and (via averaging) for a Hopf bifurcation. Close to a stable state, this potential has a parabolic form; but approaching a jump it becomes increasingly dominated by softening nonlinearities. If we have already detected a decrease in the linear decay rate, nonlinear information allows us to estimate the propensity for early tipping due to noise. If there is no discernable trend in the linear analysis, nonlinear softening is even more important in showing the proximity to tipping. After extensive normal form calibration studies, we apply our technique to two geological time series from paleo-climate tipping events. For the ending of ...

  5. Reconstructing Volcanic Forcing of Climate: Past, Present and Future

    Science.gov (United States)

    Toohey, M.; Timmreck, C.; Sigl, M.

    2015-12-01

    Radiative forcing resulting from major volcanic eruptions has been a dominant driver of climate variability during Earth's history. Including volcanic forcing in climate model simulations is therefore essential to recreate past climate variability, and provides the opportunity to test the ability of models to respond accurately to external forcing. Ice cores provide estimates of the volcanic sulfate loadings from past eruptions, from which radiative forcing can be reconstructed, with associated uncertainties. Using prior reconstructions, climate models have reproduced the gross features of global mean temperature variability reconstructed from climate proxies, although some significant differences between model results and reconstructions remain. There is much less confidence in the accuracy of the dynamical responses to volcanic forcing produced by climate models, and thus the regional aspects of post-volcanic climate anomalies are much more uncertain—a result which mirrors uncertainties in the dynamical responses to future climate change. Improvements in model's response to volcanic forcing may be possible through improving the accuracy of the forcing data. Recent advances on multiple fronts have motivated the development of a next-generation volcanic forcing timeseries for use in climate models, based on (1) improved dating and precision of ice core records, (2) better understanding of the atmospheric transport and microphysical evolution of volcanic aerosol, including its size distribution, and (3) improved representations of the spatiotemporal structure of volcanic radiative forcing. A new volcanic forcing data set, covering the past 2500 years, will be introduced and compared with prior reconstructions. Preliminary results of climate model simulations using the new forcing will also be shown, and current and future applications of the forcing set discussed.

  6. Nonlinear analysis of the forced response of structural elements

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nayfeh, A. H.; Mook, D. T.; Sridhar, S.

    1974-01-01

    A general procedure is presented for the nonlinear analysis of the forced response of structural elements to harmonic excitations. Internal resonances (i.e., modal interactions) are taken into account. All excitations are considered, with special consideration given to resonant excitations. The general procedure is applied to clamped-hinged beams. The results reveal that exciting a higher mode may lead to a larger response in a lower interacting mode, contrary to the results of linear analyses.

  7. Do horizontal propulsive forces influence the nonlinear structure of locomotion?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stergiou Nicholas

    2007-08-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Several investigations have suggested that changes in the nonlinear gait dynamics are related to the neural control of locomotion. However, no investigations have provided insight on how neural control of the locomotive pattern may be directly reflected in changes in the nonlinear gait dynamics. Our simulations with a passive dynamic walking model predicted that toe-off impulses that assist the forward motion of the center of mass influence the nonlinear gait dynamics. Here we tested this prediction in humans as they walked on the treadmill while the forward progression of the center of mass was assisted by a custom built mechanical horizontal actuator. Methods Nineteen participants walked for two minutes on a motorized treadmill as a horizontal actuator assisted the forward translation of the center of mass during the stance phase. All subjects walked at a self-select speed that had a medium-high velocity. The actuator provided assistive forces equal to 0, 3, 6 and 9 percent of the participant's body weight. The largest Lyapunov exponent, which measures the nonlinear structure, was calculated for the hip, knee and ankle joint time series. A repeated measures one-way analysis of variance with a t-test post hoc was used to determine significant differences in the nonlinear gait dynamics. Results The magnitude of the largest Lyapunov exponent systematically increased as the percent assistance provided by the mechanical actuator was increased. Conclusion These results support our model's prediction that control of the forward progression of the center of mass influences the nonlinear gait dynamics. The inability to control the forward progression of the center of mass during the stance phase may be the reason the nonlinear gait dynamics are altered in pathological populations. However, these conclusions need to be further explored at a range of walking speeds.

  8. A New Method of Comparing Forcing Agents in Climate Models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kravitz, Benjamin S.; MacMartin, Douglas; Rasch, Philip J.; Jarvis, Andrew

    2015-10-14

    We describe a new method of comparing different climate forcing agents (e.g., CO2, CH4, and solar irradiance) that avoids many of the ambiguities introduced by temperature-related climate feedbacks. This is achieved by introducing an explicit feedback loop external to the climate model that adjusts one forcing agent to balance another while keeping global mean surface temperature constant. Compared to current approaches, this method has two main advantages: (i) the need to define radiative forcing is bypassed and (ii) by maintaining roughly constant global mean temperature, the effects of state dependence on internal feedback strengths are minimized. We demonstrate this approach for several different forcing agents and derive the relationships between these forcing agents in two climate models; comparisons between forcing agents are highly linear in concordance with predicted functional forms. Transitivity of the relationships between the forcing agents appears to hold within a wide range of forcing. The relationships between the forcing agents obtained from this method are consistent across both models but differ from relationships that would be obtained from calculations of radiative forcing, highlighting the importance of controlling for surface temperature feedback effects when separating radiative forcing and climate response.

  9. Sequential reconstruction of driving-forces from nonlinear nonstationary dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Güntürkün, Ulaş

    2010-07-01

    This paper describes a functional analysis-based method for the estimation of driving-forces from nonlinear dynamic systems. The driving-forces account for the perturbation inputs induced by the external environment or the secular variations in the internal variables of the system. The proposed algorithm is applicable to the problems for which there is too little or no prior knowledge to build a rigorous mathematical model of the unknown dynamics. We derive the estimator conditioned on the differentiability of the unknown system’s mapping, and smoothness of the driving-force. The proposed algorithm is an adaptive sequential realization of the blind prediction error method, where the basic idea is to predict the observables, and retrieve the driving-force from the prediction error. Our realization of this idea is embodied by predicting the observables one-step into the future using a bank of echo state networks (ESN) in an online fashion, and then extracting the raw estimates from the prediction error and smoothing these estimates in two adaptive filtering stages. The adaptive nature of the algorithm enables to retrieve both slowly and rapidly varying driving-forces accurately, which are illustrated by simulations. Logistic and Moran-Ricker maps are studied in controlled experiments, exemplifying chaotic state and stochastic measurement models. The algorithm is also applied to the estimation of a driving-force from another nonlinear dynamic system that is stochastic in both state and measurement equations. The results are judged by the posterior Cramer-Rao lower bounds. The method is finally put into test on a real-world application; extracting sun’s magnetic flux from the sunspot time series.

  10. Effects of nonlinear forces on dynamic mode atomic force microscopy and spectroscopy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Das, Soma; Sreeram, P A; Raychaudhuri, A K

    2007-06-01

    In this paper, we describe the effects of nonlinear tip-sample forces on dynamic mode atomic force microscopy and spectroscopy. The jumps and hysteresis observed in the vibration amplitude (A) versus tip-sample distance (h) curves have been traced to bistability in the resonance curve. A numerical analysis of the basic dynamic equation was used to explain the hysteresis in the experimental curve. It has been found that the location of the hysteresis in the A-h curve depends on the frequency of the forced oscillation relative to the natural frequency of the cantilever.

  11. Nonlinear control techniques for an atomic force microscope system

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Yongchun FANG; Matthew FEEMSTER; Darren DAWSON; Nader M.JALILI

    2005-01-01

    Two nonlinear control techniques are proposed for an atomic force microscope system.Initially,a learning-based control algorithm is developed for the microcantilever-sample system that achieves asymptotic cantilever tip tracking for periodic trajectories.Specifically,the control approach utilizes a learning-based feedforward term to compensate for periodic dynamics and high-gain terms to account for non-periodic dynamics.An adaptive control algorithm is then developed to achieve asymptotic cantilever tip tracking for bounded tip trajectories despite uncertainty throughout the system parameters.Simulation results are provided to illustrate the efficacy and performance of the control strategies.

  12. Nonlinear behavior for nanoscale electrostatic actuators with Casimir force

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lin Wenhui [College of Science, China Agricultural University, Beijing 100083 (China); Zhao Yapu [State Key Laboratory of Nonlinear Mechanics (LNM), Institute of Mechanics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100080 (China)]. E-mail: yzhao@lnm.imech.ac.cn

    2005-03-01

    The influence of Casimir force on the nonlinear behavior of nanoscale electrostatic actuators is studied in this paper. A one degree of freedom mass-spring model is adopted and the bifurcation properties of the actuators are obtained. With the change of the geometrical dimensions, the number of equilibrium point varies from zero to two. Stability analysis shows that one equilibrium point is Hopf point and the other is unstable saddle point when there are two equilibrium points. We also obtain the phase portraits, in which the periodic orbits exist around the Hopf point, and a homoclinic orbit passes through the unstable saddle point.

  13. Sensitivity and chaos control for the forced nonlinear oscillations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bashkirtseva, Irina [Department of Mathematics, Ural State University, 620083 Ekaterinburg (Russian Federation); Ryashko, Lev [Department of Mathematics, Ural State University, 620083 Ekaterinburg (Russian Federation)] e-mail: lev.ryashko@usu.ru

    2005-12-01

    This paper is devoted to study the problem of controlling chaos for forced nonlinear dynamic systems. We suggest a new control technique based on sensitivity analysis. With the help of approximation of nonequilibrium quasipotential, stochastic sensitivity function (SSF) is constructed. This function is used as basic tool of a quantitative description for a system response on the random external disturbances. The possibilities of SSF to predict chaotic dynamics for the periodic and stochastic forced Brusselator are shown. The problem of chaos control based on SSF is considered. A design of attractors with the desired features by feedback regulator is discussed. Analysis of controllability and effective technique for regulator synthesis is presented. An example of suppressing chaos for Brusselator is considered.

  14. Anthropogenic Aerosols in Asia, Radiative Forcing, and Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ramaswamy, V.; Bollasina, M. A.; Ming, Y.; Ocko, I.; Persad, G.

    2014-12-01

    Aerosols arising as a result of human-induced emissions in Asia form a key 'driver' in causing pollution and in the forcing of anthropogenic climate change. The manner of the forced climate change is sensitive to the scattering and absorption properties of the aerosols and the aerosol-cloud microphysical interactions. Using the NOAA/ GFDL global climate models and observations from multiple platforms, we investigate the radiative perturbations due to the 20th Century sulfate and carbonaceous aerosol emissions and the resultant impacts on surface temperature, tropical precipitation, Indian monsoon, hemispheric circulation, and atmospheric and oceanic heat transports. The influence of the aerosol species has many contrasts with that due to the anthropogenic well-mixed greenhouse gas emissions e.g., the asymmetry in the hemispheric climate response, but is subject to larger uncertainties. The aerosol forcing expected in the future indicates a significant control on the 21st Century anthropogenic climate change in Asia.

  15. Simulation of the climatic effects of natural forcings during the pre-industrial era

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    YIN ChongHua; YAN XiaoDong; SHI ZhengGuo; WANG ZhaoMin

    2007-01-01

    The MPM-2, an Earth system model of intermediate complexity, is employed to study the climate system response to natural forcings during the pre-industrial era (1000-1800 AD), with a special focus on the surface air temperature (SAT) evolution. Solar radiation and volcanism are the primary natural forcings during this period. In the MPM-2, the solar radiation forcing determines the long-term trend of the climate system change, and the volcanic forcing intensifies (weakens) this trend. Ultimately, the combination of solar and volcanic forcings dominates the long-term changes of the climate system.These results are in good agreement with other model data or temperature reconstructions. Natural forcings can well explain the Little Ice Age (LIA) and the Medieval Warm Period (MWP). At the large regional scale, the SAT response to natural forcings is almost coincident with that of the Northern Hemisphere. Based on MPM-2 model results, it is concluded that the global climate gradually became cold during the pre-industrial era. However, MPM-2 model results substantially correlate with reconstructed solar and volcanic forcings. Namely, to some great extent, these results strongly rely on the forcing series data we choose. Therefore, in order to accurately simulate the secular variation of the historical climate, it is very important to reconstruct well the solar radiation change and volcanic rorcing data are well reconstructed for the past 10000 years, at least for the past 2000 years, in addition to the model improvements. The sensitivity study on the abrupt solar radiation change indicates that the increased solar radiation not only strengthens the nonlinear response of SAT, but intensifies the global hydrological cycle. At the same time, the biosphere is also affected obviously.

  16. Climate forcings and climate sensitivities diagnosed from atmospheric global circulation models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Anderson, Bruce T. [Boston University, Department of Geography and Environment, Boston, MA (United States); Knight, Jeff R.; Ringer, Mark A. [Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter (United Kingdom); Deser, Clara; Phillips, Adam S. [National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO (United States); Yoon, Jin-Ho [University of Maryland, Cooperative Institute for Climate and Satellites, Earth System Science Interdisciplinary Center, College Park, MD (United States); Cherchi, Annalisa [Centro Euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici, and Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Bologna (Italy)

    2010-12-15

    Understanding the historical and future response of the global climate system to anthropogenic emissions of radiatively active atmospheric constituents has become a timely and compelling concern. At present, however, there are uncertainties in: the total radiative forcing associated with changes in the chemical composition of the atmosphere; the effective forcing applied to the climate system resulting from a (temporary) reduction via ocean-heat uptake; and the strength of the climate feedbacks that subsequently modify this forcing. Here a set of analyses derived from atmospheric general circulation model simulations are used to estimate the effective and total radiative forcing of the observed climate system due to anthropogenic emissions over the last 50 years of the twentieth century. They are also used to estimate the sensitivity of the observed climate system to these emissions, as well as the expected change in global surface temperatures once the climate system returns to radiative equilibrium. Results indicate that estimates of the effective radiative forcing and total radiative forcing associated with historical anthropogenic emissions differ across models. In addition estimates of the historical sensitivity of the climate to these emissions differ across models. However, results suggest that the variations in climate sensitivity and total climate forcing are not independent, and that the two vary inversely with respect to one another. As such, expected equilibrium temperature changes, which are given by the product of the total radiative forcing and the climate sensitivity, are relatively constant between models, particularly in comparison to results in which the total radiative forcing is assumed constant. Implications of these results for projected future climate forcings and subsequent responses are also discussed. (orig.)

  17. Nonlinear problems of complex natural systems: Sun and climate dynamics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bershadskii, A

    2013-01-13

    The universal role of the nonlinear one-third subharmonic resonance mechanism in generation of strong fluctuations in complex natural dynamical systems related to global climate is discussed using wavelet regression detrended data. The role of the oceanic Rossby waves in the year-scale global temperature fluctuations and the nonlinear resonance contribution to the El Niño phenomenon have been discussed in detail. The large fluctuations in the reconstructed temperature on millennial time scales (Antarctic ice core data for the past 400,000 years) are also shown to be dominated by the one-third subharmonic resonance, presumably related to the Earth's precession effect on the energy that the intertropical regions receive from the Sun. The effects of galactic turbulence on the temperature fluctuations are also discussed.

  18. Actuation of atomic force microscopy microcantilevers using contact acoustic nonlinearities

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Torello, D.; Degertekin, F. Levent, E-mail: levent.degertekin@me.gatech.edu [George W. Woodruff School of Mechanical Engineering, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, Georgia 30332 (United States)

    2013-11-15

    A new method of actuating atomic force microscopy (AFM) cantilevers is proposed in which a high frequency (>5 MHz) wave modulated by a lower frequency (∼300 kHz) wave passes through a contact acoustic nonlinearity at the contact interface between the actuator and the cantilever chip. The nonlinearity converts the high frequency, modulated signal to a low frequency drive signal suitable for actuation of tapping-mode AFM probes. The higher harmonic content of this signal is filtered out mechanically by the cantilever transfer function, providing for clean output. A custom probe holder was designed and constructed using rapid prototyping technologies and off-the-shelf components and was interfaced with an Asylum Research MFP-3D AFM, which was then used to evaluate the performance characteristics with respect to standard hardware and linear actuation techniques. Using a carrier frequency of 14.19 MHz, it was observed that the cantilever output was cleaner with this actuation technique and added no significant noise to the system. This setup, without any optimization, was determined to have an actuation bandwidth on the order of 10 MHz, suitable for high speed imaging applications. Using this method, an image was taken that demonstrates the viability of the technique and is compared favorably to images taken with a standard AFM setup.

  19. Nonlinear gravitational self-force: Field outside a small body

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pound, Adam

    2012-10-01

    A small extended body moving through an external spacetime gαβ creates a metric perturbation hαβ, which forces the body away from geodesic motion in gαβ. The foundations of this effect, called the gravitational self-force, are now well established, but concrete results have mostly been limited to linear order. Accurately modeling the dynamics of compact binaries requires proceeding to nonlinear orders. To that end, I show how to obtain the metric perturbation outside the body at all orders in a class of generalized wave gauges. In a small buffer region surrounding the body, the form of the perturbation can be found analytically as an expansion for small distances r from a representative worldline. Given only a specification of the body’s multipole moments, the field obtained in the buffer region suffices to find the metric everywhere outside the body via a numerical puncture scheme. Following this procedure at first and second order, I calculate the field in the buffer region around an arbitrarily structured compact body at sufficiently high order in r to numerically implement a second-order puncture scheme, including effects of the body’s spin. I also define nth-order (local) generalizations of the Detweiler-Whiting singular and regular fields and show that in a certain sense, the body can be viewed as a skeleton of multipole moments.

  20. Global climate forcing of aerosols embodied in international trade

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, Jintai; Tong, Dan; Davis, Steven; Ni, Ruijing; Tan, Xiaoxiao; Pan, Da; Zhao, Hongyan; Lu, Zifeng; Streets, David; Feng, Tong; Zhang, Qiang; Yan, Yingying; Hu, Yongyun; Li, Jing; Liu, Zhu; Jiang, Xujia; Geng, Guannan; He, Kebin; Huang, Yi; Guan, Dabo

    2016-10-01

    International trade separates regions consuming goods and services from regions where goods and related aerosol pollution are produced. Yet the role of trade in aerosol climate forcing attributed to different regions has never been quantified. Here, we contrast the direct radiative forcing of aerosols related to regions' consumption of goods and services against the forcing due to emissions produced in each region. Aerosols assessed include black carbon, primary organic aerosol, and secondary inorganic aerosols, including sulfate, nitrate and ammonium. We find that global aerosol radiative forcing due to emissions produced in East Asia is much stronger than the forcing related to goods and services ultimately consumed in that region because of its large net export of emissions-intensive goods. The opposite is true for net importers such as Western Europe and North America: global radiative forcing related to consumption is much greater than the forcing due to emissions produced in these regions. Overall, trade is associated with a shift of radiative forcing from net importing to net exporting regions. Compared to greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide, the short atmospheric lifetimes of aerosols cause large localized differences between consumption- and production-related radiative forcing. International efforts to reduce emissions in the exporting countries will help alleviate trade-related climate and health impacts of aerosols while lowering global emissions.

  1. Which way will the circulation shift in a changing climate? Possible nonlinearity of extratropical cloud feedbacks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tandon, Neil F.; Cane, Mark A.

    2017-06-01

    In a suite of idealized experiments with the Community Atmospheric Model version 3 coupled to a slab ocean, we show that the atmospheric circulation response to CO2 increase is sensitive to extratropical cloud feedback that is potentially nonlinear. Doubling CO2 produces a poleward shift of the Southern Hemisphere (SH) midlatitude jet that is driven primarily by cloud shortwave feedback and modulated by ice albedo feedback, in agreement with earlier studies. More surprisingly, for CO2 increases smaller than 25 %, the SH jet shifts equatorward. Nonlinearities are also apparent in the Northern Hemisphere, but with less zonal symmetry. Baroclinic instability theory and climate feedback analysis suggest that as the CO2 forcing amplitude is reduced, there is a transition from a regime in which cloud and circulation changes are largely decoupled to a regime in which they are highly coupled. In the dynamically coupled regime, there is an apparent cancellation between cloud feedback due to warming and cloud feedback due to the shifting jet, and this allows the ice albedo feedback to dominate in the high latitudes. The extent to which dynamical coupling effects exceed thermodynamic forcing effects is strongly influenced by cloud microphysics: an alternate model configuration with slightly increased cloud liquid (LIQ) produces poleward jet shifts regardless of the amplitude of CO2 forcing. Altering the cloud microphysics also produces substantial spread in the circulation response to CO2 doubling: the LIQ configuration produces a poleward SH jet shift approximately twice that produced under the default configuration. Analysis of large ensembles of the Canadian Earth System Model version 2 demonstrates that nonlinear, cloud-coupled jet shifts are also possible in comprehensive models. We still expect a poleward trend in SH jet latitude for timescales on which CO2 increases by more than 25 %. But on shorter timescales, our results give good reason to expect significant

  2. Long-term climate forcing by atmospheric oxygen concentrations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Poulsen, Christopher J.; Tabor, Clay; White, Joseph D.

    2015-06-01

    The percentage of oxygen in Earth’s atmosphere varied between 10% and 35% throughout the Phanerozoic. These changes have been linked to the evolution, radiation, and size of animals but have not been considered to affect climate. We conducted simulations showing that modulation of the partial pressure of oxygen (pO2), as a result of its contribution to atmospheric mass and density, influences the optical depth of the atmosphere. Under low pO2 and a reduced-density atmosphere, shortwave scattering by air molecules and clouds is less frequent, leading to a substantial increase in surface shortwave forcing. Through feedbacks involving latent heat fluxes to the atmosphere and marine stratus clouds, surface shortwave forcing drives increases in atmospheric water vapor and global precipitation, enhances greenhouse forcing, and raises global surface temperature. Our results implicate pO2 as an important factor in climate forcing throughout geologic time.

  3. Climate Implications of the Heterogeneity of Anthropogenic Aerosol Forcing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Persad, Geeta Gayatri

    Short-lived anthropogenic aerosols are concentrated in regions of high human activity, where they interact with radiation and clouds, causing horizontally heterogeneous radiative forcing between polluted and unpolluted regions. Aerosols can absorb shortwave energy in the atmosphere, but deplete it at the surface, producing opposite radiative perturbations between the surface and atmosphere. This thesis investigates climate and policy implications of this horizontal and vertical heterogeneity of anthropogenic aerosol forcing, employing the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory's AM2.1 and AM3 models, both at a global scale and using East Asia as a regional case study. The degree of difference between spatial patterns of climate change due to heterogeneous aerosol forcing versus homogeneous greenhouse gas forcing deeply impacts the detection, attribution, and prediction of regional climate change. This dissertation addresses a gap in current understanding of these two forcings' response pattern development, using AM2.1 historical forcing simulations. The results indicate that fast atmospheric and land-surface processes alone substantially homogenize the global pattern of surface energy flux response to heterogeneous aerosol forcing. Aerosols' vertical redistribution of energy significantly impacts regional climate, but is incompletely understood. It is newly identified here, via observations and historical and idealized forcing simulations, that increased aerosol-driven atmospheric absorption may explain half of East Asia's recent surface insolation decline. Further, aerosols' surface and atmospheric effects counteract each other regionally---atmospheric heating enhances summer monsoon circulation, while surface dimming suppresses it---but absorbing aerosols' combined effects reduce summer monsoon rainfall. This thesis constitutes the first vertical decomposition of aerosols' impacts in this high-emissions region and elucidates the monsoonal response to aerosols

  4. Nonlinear problems of complex natural systems: Sun and climate dynamics

    CERN Document Server

    Bershadskii, A

    2012-01-01

    Universal role of the nonlinear one-third subharmonic resonance mechanism in generation of the strong fluctuations in such complex natural dynamical systems as global climate and global solar activity is discussed using wavelet regression detrended data. Role of the oceanic Rossby waves in the year-scale global temperature fluctuations and the nonlinear resonance contribution to the El Nino phenomenon have been discussed in detail. The large fluctuations of the reconstructed temperature on the millennial time-scales (Antarctic ice cores data for the past 400,000 years) are also shown to be dominated by the one-third subharmonic resonance, presumably related to Earth precession effect on the energy that the intertropical regions receive from the Sun. Effects of Galactic turbulence on the temperature fluctuations are discussed in this content. It is also shown that the one-third subharmonic resonance can be considered as a background for the 11-years solar cycle, and again the global (solar) rotation and chaoti...

  5. Irregular Wave Forces on Monopile Foundations. Effect af Full Nonlinearity and Bed Slope

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schløer, Signe; Bredmose, Henrik; Bingham, Harry B.

    2011-01-01

    Forces on a monopile from a nonlinear irregular unidirectional wave model are investigated. Two seabed profiles of different slopes are considered. Morison’s equation is used to investigate the forcing from fully nonlinear irregular waves and to compare the results with those obtained from linear...... wave theory and with stream function wave theory. The latter of these theories is only valid on a flat bed. The three predictions of wave forces are compared and the influence of the bed slope is investigated. Force-profiles of two selected waves from the irregular wave train are further compared...... with the corresponding forceprofiles from stream function theory. The results suggest that the nonlinear irregular waves give rise to larger extreme wave forces than those predicted by linear theory and that a steeper bed slope increases the wave forces both for linear and nonlinear waves. It is further found...

  6. Rate of non-linearity in DMS aerosol-cloud-climate interactions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. A. Thomas

    2011-11-01

    Full Text Available The degree of non-linearity in DMS-cloud-climate interactions is assessed using the ECHAM5-HAMMOZ model by taking into account end-to-end aerosol chemistry-cloud microphysics link. The evaluation is made over the Southern oceans in austral summer, a region of minimal anthropogenic influence. In this study, we compare the DMS-derived changes in the aerosol and cloud microphysical properties between a baseline simulation with the ocean DMS emissions from a prescribed climatology, and a scenario where the DMS emissions are doubled. Our results show that doubling the DMS emissions in the current climate results in a non-linear response in atmospheric DMS burden and subsequently, in SO2 and H2SO4 burdens due to inadequate OH oxidation. The aerosol optical depth increases by only ~20 % in the 30° S–75° S belt in the SH summer months. This increases the vertically integrated cloud droplet number concentrations (CDNC by 25 %. Since the vertically integrated liquid water vapor is constant in our model simulations, an increase in CDNC leads to a reduction in cloud droplet radius of 3.4 % over the Southern oceans in summer. The equivalent increase in cloud liquid water path is 10.7 %. The above changes in cloud microphysical properties result in a change in global annual mean radiative forcing at the TOA of −1.4 W m−2. The results suggest that the DMS-cloud microphysics link is highly non-linear. This has implications for future studies investigating the DMS-cloud climate feedbacks in a warming world and for studies evaluating geoengineering options to counteract warming by modulating low level marine clouds.

  7. Future Climate Forcings and Olive Yield in a Mediterranean Orchard

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Francesco Viola

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available The olive tree is one of the most characteristic rainfed trees in the Mediterranean region. Observed and forecasted climate modifications in this region, such as the CO2 concentration and temperature increase and the net radiation, rainfall and wind speed decrease, will likely alter vegetation water stress and modify productivity. In order to simulate how climatic change could alter soil moisture dynamic, biomass growth and fruit productivity, a water-driven crop model has been used in this study. The numerical model, previously calibrated on an olive orchard located in Sicily (Italy with a satisfactory reproduction of historical olive yield data, has been forced with future climate scenarios generated using a stochastic weather generator and a downscaling procedure of an ensemble of climate model outputs. The stochastic downscaling is carried out using simulations of some General Circulation Models adopted in the fourth Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC assessment report (4AR for future scenarios. The outcomes state that climatic forcings driving potential evapotranspiration compensate for each other, resulting in a slight increase of this water demand flux; moreover, the increase of CO2 concentration leads to a potential assimilation increase and, consequently, to an overall productivity increase in spite of the growth of water stress due to the rainfall reduction.

  8. Why Is the Climate Forcing of Sulfate Aerosols So Uncertain?

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2001-01-01

    Sulfate aerosol particles have strong scattering effect on the solar radiation transfer which results in increasing the planet albedo and, hence, tend to cool the earth-atmosphere system. Also, aerosols can act as the cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) which tend to increase the albedo of clouds and cool the global warming. The ARPEGE-Climat version 3 AGCM with FMR radiation scheme is used to estimate the direct and indirect radiative forcing of sulfate aerosols. For minimizing the uncertainties in assessing this kind of cooling effect, all kinds of factors are analyzed which have been mixed in the assessment process and may lead to the different results of the radiative forcing of aerosols. It is noticed that one of the uncertainties to assess the climate forcing of aerosols by GCM results from the different definition of radiative forcing that was used. In order to clarify this vague idea, the off-line case for considering no feedbacks and on-line case for including all the feedbacks have been used for assessment. The direct forcing of sulfate aerosols in off-line case is -0.57 W/m2 and -0.38 W/m2 for the clear sky and all sky respectively. The value of on-line case appears to be a little larger than that in off-line case chiefly due to the feedback of clouds. The indirect forcing of sulfate aerosols in off-line case is -1.4 W / m2 and -1.0 W / m2 in on-line case. The radiative forcing of sulfate aerosols has obvious regional characteristics. There is a larger negative radiative forcing over North America, Europe and East Asia. If the direct and indirect forcing are added together, it is enough to offset the positive radiative forcing induced by the greenhouse gases in these regions.

  9. Influence of forced respiration on nonlinear dynamics in heart rate variability

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kanters, J K; Højgaard, M V; Agner, E;

    1997-01-01

    of this study was to test whether the known nonlinear input from spontaneous respiration is a source for the nonlinearities in heart rate variability. Twelve healthy subjects were examined in supine position with 3-h electrocardiogram recordings during both spontaneous and forced respiration in accordance...... expressed as the nonlinear prediction error did not differ between spontaneous respiration, 32.3 +/- 3.4 ms, and forced respiration, 31.9 +/- 5.7. It is concluded that the origin of the nonlinear dynamics in heart rate variability is not a nonlinear input from the respiration into the cardiovascular...... oscillator. Additional studies are needed to elucidate the mechanisms behind the nonlinear dynamics in heart rate variability....

  10. Estimating partial observability and nonlinear climate effects on stochastic community dynamics of migratory waterfowl.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Almaraz, Pablo; Green, Andy J; Aguilera, Eduardo; Rendón, Miguel A; Bustamante, Javier

    2012-09-01

    1. Understanding the impact of environmental variability on migrating species requires the estimation of sequential abiotic effects in different geographic areas across the life cycle. For instance, waterfowl (ducks, geese and swans) usually breed widely dispersed throughout their breeding range and gather in large numbers in their wintering headquarters, but there is a lack of knowledge on the effects of the sequential environmental conditions experienced by migrating birds on the long-term community dynamics at their wintering sites. 2. Here, we analyse multidecadal time-series data of 10 waterfowl species wintering in the Guadalquivir Marshes (SW Spain), the single most important wintering site for waterfowl breeding in Europe. We use a multivariate state-space approach to estimate the effects of biotic interactions, local environmental forcing during winter and large-scale climate during breeding and migration on wintering multispecies abundance fluctuations, while accounting for partial observability (observation error and missing data) in both population and environmental data. 3. The joint effect of local weather and large-scale climate explained 31·6% of variance at the community level, while the variability explained by interspecific interactions was negligible (observations through data augmentation increased the estimated magnitude of environmental forcing by an average 30·1% and reduced the impact of stochasticity by 39·3% when accounting for observation error. Interestingly however, the impact of environmental forcing on community dynamics was underestimated by an average 15·3% and environmental stochasticity overestimated by 14·1% when ignoring both observation error and data augmentation. 5. These results provide a salient example of sequential multiscale environmental forcing in a major migratory bird community, which suggests a demographic link between the breeding and wintering grounds operating through nonlinear environmental effects

  11. Emissions and climate forcing from global and Arctic fishing vessels

    Science.gov (United States)

    McKuin, B.; Campbell, J. E.

    2016-12-01

    Fishing vessels were recently found to be the largest source of black carbon ship emissions in the Arctic, suggesting that the fishing sector should be a focus for future studies. Here we developed a global and Arctic emissions inventory for fishing vessel emissions of short-lived and long-lived climate forcers based on data from a wide range of vessel sizes, fuel sulfur contents, engine types, and operational characteristics. We found that previous work generally underestimated emissions of short-lived climate forcers due to a failure to account for small fishing vessels as well as variability in emission factors. In particular, global black carbon emissions were underestimated by an order of magnitude. Furthermore, our order of magnitude estimate of the net climate effect from these fishing vessel emissions suggests that short-lived climate forcing may be particularly important in regions where fuel has a low sulfur content. These results have implications for proposed maritime policies and provide a foundation for future climate simulations to forecast climate change impacts in the Arctic.

  12. Inferring climate variability from nonlinear proxies: application to palaeo-ENSO studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Emile-Geay, J.; Tingley, M.

    2016-01-01

    Inferring climate from palaeodata frequently assumes a direct, linear relationship between the two, which is seldom met in practice. Here we simulate an idealized proxy characterized by a nonlinear, thresholded relationship with surface temperature, and we demonstrate the pitfalls of ignoring nonlinearities in the proxy-climate relationship. We explore three approaches to using this idealized proxy to infer past climate: (i) methods commonly used in the palaeoclimate literature, without consideration of nonlinearities; (ii) the same methods, after empirically transforming the data to normality to account for nonlinearities; and (iii) using a Bayesian model to invert the mechanistic relationship between the climate and the proxy. We find that neglecting nonlinearity often exaggerates changes in climate variability between different time intervals and leads to reconstructions with poorly quantified uncertainties. In contrast, explicit recognition of the nonlinear relationship, using either a mechanistic model or an empirical transform, yields significantly better estimates of past climate variations, with more accurate uncertainty quantification. We apply these insights to two palaeoclimate settings. Accounting for nonlinearities in the classical sedimentary record from Laguna Pallcacocha leads to quantitative departures from the results of the original study, and it markedly affects the detection of variance changes over time. A comparison with the Lake Challa record, also a nonlinear proxy for El Niño-Southern Oscillation, illustrates how inter-proxy comparisons may be altered when accounting for nonlinearity. The results hold implications for how univariate, nonlinear recorders of normally distributed climate variables are interpreted, compared to other proxy records, and incorporated into multiproxy reconstructions.

  13. CLIMATE CHANGE. Long-term climate forcing by atmospheric oxygen concentrations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Poulsen, Christopher J; Tabor, Clay; White, Joseph D

    2015-06-12

    The percentage of oxygen in Earth's atmosphere varied between 10% and 35% throughout the Phanerozoic. These changes have been linked to the evolution, radiation, and size of animals but have not been considered to affect climate. We conducted simulations showing that modulation of the partial pressure of oxygen (pO2), as a result of its contribution to atmospheric mass and density, influences the optical depth of the atmosphere. Under low pO2 and a reduced-density atmosphere, shortwave scattering by air molecules and clouds is less frequent, leading to a substantial increase in surface shortwave forcing. Through feedbacks involving latent heat fluxes to the atmosphere and marine stratus clouds, surface shortwave forcing drives increases in atmospheric water vapor and global precipitation, enhances greenhouse forcing, and raises global surface temperature. Our results implicate pO2 as an important factor in climate forcing throughout geologic time.

  14. Greenland temperature response to climate forcing during the last deglaciation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buizert, Christo; Gkinis, Vasileios; Severinghaus, Jeffrey P; He, Feng; Lecavalier, Benoit S; Kindler, Philippe; Leuenberger, Markus; Carlson, Anders E; Vinther, Bo; Masson-Delmotte, Valérie; White, James W C; Liu, Zhengyu; Otto-Bliesner, Bette; Brook, Edward J

    2014-09-01

    Greenland ice core water isotopic composition (δ(18)O) provides detailed evidence for abrupt climate changes but is by itself insufficient for quantitative reconstruction of past temperatures and their spatial patterns. We investigate Greenland temperature evolution during the last deglaciation using independent reconstructions from three ice cores and simulations with a coupled ocean-atmosphere climate model. Contrary to the traditional δ(18)O interpretation, the Younger Dryas period was 4.5° ± 2°C warmer than the Oldest Dryas, due to increased carbon dioxide forcing and summer insolation. The magnitude of abrupt temperature changes is larger in central Greenland (9° to 14°C) than in the northwest (5° to 9°C), fingerprinting a North Atlantic origin. Simulated changes in temperature seasonality closely track changes in the Atlantic overturning strength and support the hypothesis that abrupt climate change is mostly a winter phenomenon.

  15. The nonlinear North Atlantic-Arctic ocean response to CO2 forcing

    Science.gov (United States)

    van der Linden, Eveline C.; Bintanja, Richard; Hazeleger, Wilco

    2017-04-01

    Most climate models project an increase in oceanic energy transport towards high northern latitudes in future climate projections, but the physical mechanisms are not yet fully understood. To obtain a more fundamental understanding of the processes that cause the ocean heat transport to increase, we carried out a set of sensitivity experiments using a coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model. Within these experiments, atmospheric CO2 levels are instantaneously set to one-fourth to four times current values. These model integrations, each with a length of 550 years, result in five considerably different quasi-equilibrium climate states. Our simulations show that poleward ocean heat transport in the Atlantic sector of the Arctic at 70°N increases from 0.03 PW in the coldest climate state to 0.2 PW in the warmest climate state. This increase is caused primarily by changes in sea ice cover, in horizontal ocean currents owing to anomalous winds in response to sea ice changes, and in ocean advection of thermal anomalies. Surprisingly, at subpolar latitudes, the subpolar gyre is found to weaken toward both the warmer and colder climates, relative to the current climate. This nonlinear response is caused by a complex interplay between seasonal sea ice melt, the near-surface wind response to sea ice changes, and changes in the density-driven circulation. The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) and its associated heat transport even oppose the total ocean heat transport towards the Arctic in the warmest climate. Going from warm to cold climates, or from high to low CO2 concentrations, the strength of the AMOC initially increases, but then declines towards the coldest climate, implying a nonlinear AMOC-response to CO2-induced climate change. Evidently, the North Atlantic-Arctic ocean heat transport depends on an interplay between various (remote) coupled ocean-atmosphere-sea ice mechanisms that respond in a nonlinear way to climate change.

  16. Nonlinear control of multiple spacecraft formation flying using the constraint forces in Lagrangian systems

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2009-01-01

    Getting inspiration from the constraint forces in the classical mechanics, we presented the nonlinear control method of multiple spacecraft formation flying to accurately keep the desired formation arrays. Considering nonlinearity and perturbation, we changed the question of the formation array control to the Lagrange equations with the holonomic constraints and the differential algebraic equations (DAE), and developed the nonlinear control for design of the follower spacecraft tracking control laws by solving the DAE. Because of using the idea of the constraint forces, this approach can adequately utilize the characteristic of the dynamic equations, i.e., the space natural forces, and accurately keep the arbitrary formation array. Simulation results of the circular formation keeping with the linear and nonlinear dynamical equations were included to illuminate the control performance.

  17. Radiative forcing in the ACCMIP historical and future climate simulations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. T. Shindell

    2012-08-01

    Full Text Available A primary goal of the Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP was to characterize the short-lived drivers of preindustrial to 2100 climate change in the current generation of climate models. Here we evaluate historical and future radiative forcing in the 10 ACCMIP models that included aerosols, 8 of which also participated in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5.

    The models generally reproduce present-day climatological total aerosol optical depth (AOD relatively well. They have quite different contributions from various aerosol components to this total, however, and most appear to underestimate AOD over East Asia. The models generally capture 1980–2000 AOD trends fairly well, though they underpredict AOD increases over the Yellow/Eastern Sea. They appear to strongly underestimate absorbing AOD, especially in East Asia, South and Southeast Asia, South America and Southern Hemisphere Africa.

    We examined both the conventional direct radiative forcing at the tropopause (RF and the forcing including rapid adjustments (adjusted forcing; AF, including direct and indirect effects. The models' calculated all aerosol all-sky 1850 to 2000 global mean annual average RF ranges from −0.06 to −0.49 W m−2, with a mean of −0.26 W m−2 and a median of −0.27 W m−2. Adjusting for missing aerosol components in some models brings the range to −0.12 to −0.62 W m−2, with a mean of −0.39 W m−2. Screening the models based on their ability to capture spatial patterns and magnitudes of AOD and AOD trends yields a quality-controlled mean of −0.42 W m−2 and range of −0.33 to −0.50 W m−2 (accounting for missing components. The CMIP5 subset of ACCMIP models spans −0.06 to −0.49 W m−2, suggesting some CMIP5 simulations likely have too little aerosol RF. A substantial, but not

  18. Radiative forcing in the ACCMIP historical and future climate simulations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Shindell, D. T.; Lamarque, J. -F.; Schulz, M.; Flanner, M.; Jiao, C.; Chin, M.; Young, P. J.; Lee, Y. H.; Rotstayn, L.; Mahowald, N.; Milly, G.; Faluvegi, G.; Balkanski, Y.; Collins, W. J.; Conley, A. J.; Dalsoren, S.; Easter, R.; Ghan, S.; Horowitz, L.; Liu, X.; Myhre, G.; Nagashima, T.; Naik, V.; Rumbold, S. T.; Skeie, R.; Sudo, K.; Szopa, S.; Takemura, T.; Voulgarakis, A.; Yoon, J. -H.; Lo, F.

    2013-01-01

    The Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP) examined the short-lived drivers of climate change in current climate models. Here we evaluate the 10 ACCMIP models that included aerosols, 8 of which also participated in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5). The models reproduce present-day total aerosol optical depth (AOD) relatively well, though many are biased low. Contributions from individual aerosol components are quite different, however, and most models underestimate east Asian AOD. The models capture most 1980-2000 AOD trends well, but underpredict increases over the Yellow/Eastern Sea. They strongly underestimate absorbing AOD in many regions. We examine both the direct radiative forcing (RF) and the forcing including rapid adjustments (effective radiative forcing; ERF, including direct and indirect effects). The models’ all-sky 1850 to 2000 global mean annual average total aerosol RF is (mean; range) -0.26Wm-2-2. Screening based on model skill in capturing observed AOD yields a best estimate of -0.42Wm-2-2Climate feedbacks contribute substantially (35 to -58 %) to modeled historical aerosol RF. The 1850 to 2000 aerosol ERF is -1.17Wm-2-2forcing than direct RF. Despite this, the multi-model spread relative to the mean is typically the same for ERF as it is for RF, or even smaller, over areas with substantial forcing. The largest 1850 to 2000 negative aerosol RF and ERF values are over and near Europe, south and east Asia and North America. ERF, however, is positive over the Sahara, the Karakoram, high Southern latitudes and especially the Arctic. Global

  19. Radiative forcing in the ACCMIP historical and future climate simulations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. T. Shindell

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available The Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP examined the short-lived drivers of climate change in current climate models. Here we evaluate the 10 ACCMIP models that included aerosols, 8 of which also participated in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5. The models reproduce present-day total aerosol optical depth (AOD relatively well, though many are biased low. Contributions from individual aerosol components are quite different, however, and most models underestimate east Asian AOD. The models capture most 1980–2000 AOD trends well, but underpredict increases over the Yellow/Eastern Sea. They strongly underestimate absorbing AOD in many regions. We examine both the direct radiative forcing (RF and the forcing including rapid adjustments (effective radiative forcing; ERF, including direct and indirect effects. The models' all-sky 1850 to 2000 global mean annual average total aerosol RF is (mean; range −0.26 W m−2; −0.06 to −0.49 W m−2. Screening based on model skill in capturing observed AOD yields a best estimate of −0.42 W m−2; −0.33 to −0.50 W m−2, including adjustment for missing aerosol components in some models. Many ACCMIP and CMIP5 models appear to produce substantially smaller aerosol RF than this best estimate. Climate feedbacks contribute substantially (35 to −58% to modeled historical aerosol RF. The 1850 to 2000 aerosol ERF is −1.17 W m−2; −0.71 to −1.44 W m−2. Thus adjustments, including clouds, typically cause greater forcing than direct RF. Despite this, the multi-model spread relative to the mean is typically the same for ERF as it is for RF, or even smaller, over areas with substantial forcing. The largest 1850 to 2000 negative aerosol RF and ERF values are over and near Europe, south and east Asia and North America. ERF, however, is positive over the Sahara, the Karakoram, high Southern latitudes and especially the Arctic. Global aerosol RF

  20. Modified ocean circulation, albedo instability and ice-flow instability. Risks of non-linear climate change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ham, J. van; Beer, R.J. van; Builtjes, P.J.H.; Roemer, M.G.M. [TNO Inst. of Environmental Sciences, Delft (Netherlands); Koennen, G.P. [KNMI, Royal Netherlands Meteorological Inst., de Bilt (Netherlands); Oerlemans, J. [Utrecht Univ. (Netherlands). Inst. for Meteorological and Atmospheric Research

    1995-12-31

    In this presentation part of an investigation is described into risks for climate change which are presently not adequately covered in General Circulation Models. In the concept of climate change as a result of the enhanced greenhouse effect it is generally assumed that the radiative forcings from increased concentrations of greenhouse gases (GHG) will result in a proportional or quasilinear global warming. Though correlations of this kind are known from palaeoclimate research, the variability of the climate seems to prevent the direct proof of a causal relation between recent greenhouse gas concentrations and temperature observations. In order to resolve the issue the use of General Circulation Models (GCMs), though still inadequate at present, is indispensable. Around the world some 10 leading GCMs exist which have been the subject of evaluation and intercomparison in a number of studies. Their results are regularly assessed in the IPCC process. A discussion on their performance in simulating present or past climates and the causes of their weak points shows that the depiction of clouds is a major weakness of GCMs. A second element which is virtually absent in GCMs are the feedbacks from natural biogeochemical cycles. These cycles are influenced by man in a number of ways. GCMs have a limited performance in simulating regional effects on climate. Moreover, albedo instability, in part due to its interaction with cloudiness, is only roughly represented. Apparently, not all relevant processes have been included in the GCMs. That situation constitutes a risk, since it cannot be ruled out that a missing process could cause or trigger a non-linear climate change. In the study non-linear climate change is connected with those processes which could provide feedbacks with a risk for non-monotonous or discontinuous behaviour of the climate system, or which are unpredictable or could cause rapid transitions

  1. On nonlinear controllability and series expansions for Lagrangian systems with dissipative forces

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Cortes, J.; Martinez, S.; Bullo, F.

    2002-01-01

    This paper presents series expansions and nonlinear controllability results for Lagrangian systems subject to dissipative forces. The treatment relies on the assumption of dissipative forces of linear isotropic nature. The approach is based on the affine connection formalism for Lagrangian control s

  2. Water resources climate change projections using supervised nonlinear and multivariate soft computing techniques

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sarhadi, Ali; Burn, Donald H.; Johnson, Fiona; Mehrotra, Raj; Sharma, Ashish

    2016-05-01

    Accurate projection of global warming on the probabilistic behavior of hydro-climate variables is one of the main challenges in climate change impact assessment studies. Due to the complexity of climate-associated processes, different sources of uncertainty influence the projected behavior of hydro-climate variables in regression-based statistical downscaling procedures. The current study presents a comprehensive methodology to improve the predictive power of the procedure to provide improved projections. It does this by minimizing the uncertainty sources arising from the high-dimensionality of atmospheric predictors, the complex and nonlinear relationships between hydro-climate predictands and atmospheric predictors, as well as the biases that exist in climate model simulations. To address the impact of the high dimensional feature spaces, a supervised nonlinear dimensionality reduction algorithm is presented that is able to capture the nonlinear variability among projectors through extracting a sequence of principal components that have maximal dependency with the target hydro-climate variables. Two soft-computing nonlinear machine-learning methods, Support Vector Regression (SVR) and Relevance Vector Machine (RVM), are engaged to capture the nonlinear relationships between predictand and atmospheric predictors. To correct the spatial and temporal biases over multiple time scales in the GCM predictands, the Multivariate Recursive Nesting Bias Correction (MRNBC) approach is used. The results demonstrate that this combined approach significantly improves the downscaling procedure in terms of precipitation projection.

  3. Radiative Forcing in the ACCMIP Historical and Future Climate Simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shindell, Drew Todd; Lamarque, J.-F.; Schulz, M.; Flanner, M.; Jiao, C.; Chin, M.; Young, P. J.; Lee, Y. H.; Rotstayn, L.; Mahowald, N.; hide

    2013-01-01

    A primary goal of the Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model IntercomparisonProject (ACCMIP) was to characterize the short-lived drivers of preindustrial to 2100climate change in the current generation of climate models. Here we evaluate historicaland 5 future radiative forcing in the 10 ACCMIP models that included aerosols, 8 of whichalso participated in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5).The models generally reproduce present-day climatological total aerosol opticaldepth (AOD) relatively well. components to this total, however, and most appear to underestimate AOD over East10 Asia. The models generally capture 1980-2000 AOD trends fairly well, though theyunderpredict AOD increases over the YellowEastern Sea. They appear to strongly underestimate absorbing AOD, especially in East Asia, South and Southeast Asia, SouthAmerica and Southern Hemisphere Africa.We examined both the conventional direct radiative forcing at the tropopause (RF) and the forcing including rapid adjustments (adjusted forcing AF, including direct andindirect effects). The models calculated all aerosol all-sky 1850 to 2000 global meanannual average RF ranges from 0.06 to 0.49 W m(sup -2), with a mean of 0.26 W m(sup -2) and a median of 0.27 W m(sup -2. Adjusting for missing aerosol components in some modelsbrings the range to 0.12 to 0.62W m(sup -2), with a mean of 0.39W m(sup -2). Screen20ing the models based on their ability to capture spatial patterns and magnitudes ofAOD and AOD trends yields a quality-controlled mean of 0.42W m(sup -2) and range of0.33 to 0.50 W m(sup -2) (accounting for missing components). The CMIP5 subset of ACCMIPmodels spans 0.06 to 0.49W m(sup -2), suggesting some CMIP5 simulations likelyhave too little aerosol RF. A substantial, but not well quantified, contribution to histori25cal aerosol RF may come from climate feedbacks (35 to 58). The mean aerosol AF during this period is 1.12W m(sup -2) (median value 1.16W m(sup -2), range 0.72 to1.44W m

  4. Analysis on Forced Vibration of Thin-Wall Cylindrical Shell with Nonlinear Boundary Condition

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Qiansheng Tang

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Forced vibration of thin-wall cylindrical shell under nonlinear boundary condition was discussed in this paper. The nonlinear boundary was modeled as supported clearance in one end of shell and the restraint was assumed as linearly elastic in the radial direction. Based on Sanders’ shell theory, Lagrange equation was utilized to derive the nonlinear governing equations of cylindrical shell. The displacements in three directions were represented by beam functions and trigonometric functions. In the study of nonlinear dynamic responses of thin-wall cylindrical shell with supported clearance under external loads, the Newmark method is used to obtain time history, frequency spectrum plot, phase portraits, Poincare section, bifurcation diagrams, and three-dimensional spectrum plot with different parameters. The effects of external loads, supported clearance, and support stiffness on nonlinear dynamics behaviors of cylindrical shell with nonlinear boundary condition were discussed.

  5. Nonlinear evolution of the modulational instability under weak forcing and damping

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Touboul

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available The evolution of modulational instability, or Benjamin-Feir instability is investigated within the framework of the two-dimensional fully nonlinear potential equations, modified to include wind forcing and viscous dissipation. The wind model corresponds to the Miles' theory. The introduction of dissipation in the equations is briefly discussed. Evolution of this instability in the presence of damping was considered by Segur et al. (2005a and Wu et al. (2006. Their results were extended theoretically by Kharif et al. (2010 who considered wind forcing and viscous dissipation within the framework of a forced and damped nonlinear Schrödinger equation. The marginal stability curve derived from the fully nonlinear numerical simulations coincides with the curve obtained by Kharif et al. (2010 from a linear stability analysis. Furthermore, it is found that the presence of wind forcing promotes the occurrence of a permanent frequency-downshifting without invoking damping due to breaking wave phenomenon.

  6. Climate forcings of past droughts in the Czech Lands

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mikšovský, Jiří; Trnka, Miroslav; Brázdil, Rudolf

    2015-04-01

    Frequency and intensity of local droughts is governed by a complex interaction of diverse processes, originating from internal dynamics of the climate system as well as its responses to external forcings. Separating and quantifying the effects of individual drought-inducing agents is a nontrivial task, often approached via statistical methods. In this presentation, we employ multiple linear regression to identify components attributable to various forcing factors, both external (solar irradiance, volcanic activity, anthropogenic greenhouse gases and aerosols) and internal (NAO, ENSO, AMO), in the monthly series of selected drought indices (PDSI, Z-index, SPI, SPEI) calculated for the territory of the recent Czech Republic during the 1883-2010 period. Moving block bootstrap is used for evaluation of the statistical significance of the results. Our analysis, carried out for drought index series characterizing a country-wide average as well as ten individual locations, suggests presence of a distinct component correlated with anthropogenic forcing (driven largely by the increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases) in the temperature-sensitive drought indices (PDSI, Z-index, SPEI). There are also indications of an influence of major volcanic eruptions in some of the Czech drought series, whereas variations of solar activity do not seem to leave a significant imprint. Of the major oscillatory modes in the climate system, North Atlantic Oscillation can be linked to a relatively strong component in most of the drought characteristics. Effects of ENSO, while generally weaker and scattered, are also detectable. No significant relation to Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation phase was found.

  7. Indirect Radiative Forcing and Climatic Effect of the Anthropogenic Nitrate Aerosol on Regional Climate of China

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    LI Shu; WANG Wijian; ZHUANG Bingliang; HAN Yong

    2009-01-01

    The regional climate model (RegCM3) and a tropospheric atmosphere chemistry model (TACM) were couplcd, thus a regional climate chemistry modeling system (RegCCMS) was constructed, which was applied to investigate the spatial distribution of anthropogenic nitrate aerosols, indirect radiative forcing, as well as its climatic effect over China. TACM includes the thermodynamic equilibrium model ISORROPIA and a condensed gas-phase chemistry model. Investigations show that the concentration of nitrate aerosols is relatively high over North and East China with a maximum of 29μg m-3 in January and 8 μg m-3 in July.Due to the influence of air temperature on thermodynamic equilibrium, wet scavenging of precipitation and the monsoon climate, there are obvious seasonal differences in nitrate concentrations. The average indirect radiative forcing at the tropopause due to nitrate aerosols is -1.63 W m-2 in January and -2.65 W m-2 in July, respectively. In some areas, indirect radiative forcing reaches -10 W m-2. Sensitivity tests show that nitrate aerosols make the surface air temperature drop and the precipitation reduce on the national level. The mean changes in surface air temperature and precipitation are -0.13 K and -0.01 mm d-1 in January and -0.09 K and -0.11 mm d-1 in July, respectively, showing significant differences in different regions.

  8. Solar Forcing of Greenland Climate during the Last Glacial Maximum

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adolphi, Florian; Muscheler, Raimund; Svensson, Anders; Aldahan, Ala; Possnert, Göran; Beer, Juerg; Sjolte, Jesper; Björck, Svante

    2014-05-01

    The role of solar forcing in climate changes is a matter of continuous debate. Challenges arise from the short period of direct observations of total solar irradiance (TSI), which indicate minor TSI variations of approximately 1 ‰ over an 11-year cycle, and the limited understanding of possible feedback mechanisms. Opposed to this, there is evidence from paleoclimate records for a tight coupling of solar activity and regional climate (e.g., Bond et al. 2001, Martin-Puertas et al. 2012). One proposed mechanism to amplify the Sun's influence on climate involves the relatively large modulation of the solar UV output (Haigh et al. 2010). This alters the radiative balance in the stratosphere via ozone feedback processes and eventually propagates downwards causing changes in the tropospheric circulation (Inesson et al. 2011). The regional response to this forcing may, however, also depend on orbital forcing of the mean state of the atmosphere (Dietrich et al. 2012). Prior to direct observations cosmogenic radionuclides such as 10Be and 14C are the most reliable proxies of solar activity. Their atmospheric production rates depend on the flux of galactic cosmic rays into the atmosphere which in turn is modulated by the strength of the Earth's and the solar magnetic fields. However, archives of 10Be and 14C are additionally affected by changes of their respective geochemical environment. Owing to their fundamentally different geochemistry, a combined analysis of 10Be and 14C records can aid to isolate production rate variations more reliably and thus, lead to improved reconstructions of solar variability. Due to the absence of high-quality high-resolution data this approach has so far been limited to the Holocene. We will present the first solar activity reconstruction for the end of the last glacial (22.5 - 10 ka BP) based on the cosmogenic radionuclides 10Be and 14C. We will compare glacial solar activity variations to Holocene features through combined interpretation

  9. Nonlinear Analysis of Renal Autoregulation Under Broadband Forcing Conditions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Marmarelis, V Z; Chon, K H; Chen, Y M;

    1994-01-01

    Linear analysis of renal blood flow fluctuations, induced experimentally in rats by broad-band (pseudorandom) arterial blood pressure forcing at various power levels, has been unable to explain fully the dynamics of renal autoregulation at low frequencies. This observation has suggested the possi...

  10. Greenland temperature response to climate forcing during the last deglaciation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buizert, C.; Gkinis, V.; Severinghaus, J. P.; He, F.; Lecavalier, B.; Kindler, P.; Leuenberger, M.; Carlson, A. E.; Vinther, B.; White, J. W.; Liu, Z.; Otto-Bliesner, B. L.; Brook, E.

    2013-12-01

    Much of the regional and global climate variability during the last glacial termination (19-11 ka BP) can be explained as the superposition of two distinct modes (1, 2); a spatially uniform increase in global temperature correlated with greenhouse gas forcing, and a redistribution of heat associated with variability in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) strength. The latter mode is expressed most clearly in the abrupt climate shifts recorded in the precipitation isotopic composition (δ18O) of Greenland ice cores, which are now widely used as a template for abrupt change in the northern hemisphere. Greenland δ18O is influenced by many factors, including source temperature, moisture transport and origin, and precipitation seasonality, complicating reconstruction of past temperatures. Here we use three non-δ18O temperature reconstructions from three ice cores and a general circulation model (GCM) to elucidate the (often abrupt) Greenland surface temperature response to external (insolation) and internal (CO2, AMOC, ice topography) climate forcings during the last termination. Our reconstructions are based on δ15N (NEEM, GISP2) and water isotope diffusion (NGRIP), both of which depend on physical processes in the firn column. The GCM and our reconstructions show excellent agreement on several key features. First, we find that the Younger Dryas (YD) period was 4-6oC warmer than the Oldest Dryas (OD) period in response to increased summer insolation and CO2 forcing. By contrast, δ18O-based reconstrucions from Greenland summit suggest the YD to be the colder of the two periods. Our finding is consistent with non-ice core NH proxy reconstructions, as well as with East Greenland deglacial moraine sequences that suggest only a modest glacial re-advance during the YD. Second, the YD-OD temperature difference shows a polar amplification signal, with warming being greatest at the northernmost NEEM site. By isolating different forcings in the GCM, we

  11. Climate Response of Direct Radiative Forcing of Anthropogenic Black Carbon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chung, Serena H.; Seinfeld,John H.

    2008-01-01

    The equilibrium climate effect of direct radiative forcing of anthropogenic black carbon (BC) is examined by 100-year simulations in the Goddard Institute for Space Studies General Circulation Model II-prime coupled to a mixed-layer ocean model. Anthropogenic BC is predicted to raise globally and annually averaged equilibrium surface air temperature by 0.20 K if BC is assumed to be externally mixed. The predicted increase is significantly greater in the Northern Hemisphere (0.29 K) than in the Southern Hemisphere (0.11 K). If BC is assumed to be internally mixed with the present day level of sulfate aerosol, the predicted annual mean surface temperature increase rises to 0.37 K globally, 0.54 K for the Northern Hemisphere, and 0.20 K for the Southern Hemisphere. The climate sensitivity of BC direct radiative forcing is calculated to be 0.6 K W (sup -1) square meters, which is about 70% of that of CO2, independent of the assumption of BC mixing state. The largest surface temperature response occurs over the northern high latitudes during winter and early spring. In the tropics and midlatitudes, the largest temperature increase is predicted to occur in the upper troposphere. Direct radiative forcing of anthropogenic BC is also predicted to lead to a change of precipitation patterns in the tropics; precipitation is predicted to increase between 0 and 20 N and decrease between 0 and 20 S, shifting the intertropical convergence zone northward. If BC is assumed to be internally mixed with sulfate instead of externally mixed, the change in precipitation pattern is enhanced. The change in precipitation pattern is not predicted to alter the global burden of BC significantly because the change occurs predominantly in regions removed from BC sources.

  12. Excitation Forces on Point Absorbers Exposed to High Order Non-linear Waves

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Viuff, Thomas Hansen; Andersen, Morten Thøtt; Kramer, Morten

    2013-01-01

    of proper methods to calculate design pressure distributions has led to structural failures such as buckling in the shells in wave energy prototypes. As a step towards understanding the complex loading from high order non-linear waves, this paper presents a practical approach to estimate wave excitation...... forces accounting for both non-linearity and diffraction effects. The method is validated by laboratory experiments using a hemispherical point absorber with a 6-axis force transducer, but the technique is believed to be applicable for most types of submerged or semi-submerged floating devices...

  13. Climate forcing growth rates: doubling down on our Faustian bargain

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hansen, James; Kharecha, Pushker; Sato, Makiko

    2013-03-01

    Rahmstorf et al 's (2012) conclusion that observed climate change is comparable to projections, and in some cases exceeds projections, allows further inferences if we can quantify changing climate forcings and compare those with projections. The largest climate forcing is caused by well-mixed long-lived greenhouse gases. Here we illustrate trends of these gases and their climate forcings, and we discuss implications. We focus on quantities that are accurately measured, and we include comparison with fixed scenarios, which helps reduce common misimpressions about how climate forcings are changing. Annual fossil fuel CO2 emissions have shot up in the past decade at about 3% yr-1, double the rate of the prior three decades (figure 1). The growth rate falls above the range of the IPCC (2001) 'Marker' scenarios, although emissions are still within the entire range considered by the IPCC SRES (2000). The surge in emissions is due to increased coal use (blue curve in figure 1), which now accounts for more than 40% of fossil fuel CO2 emissions. Figure 1. Figure 1. CO2 annual emissions from fossil fuel use and cement manufacture, an update of figure 16 of Hansen (2003) using data of British Petroleum (BP 2012) concatenated with data of Boden et al (2012). The resulting annual increase of atmospheric CO2 (12-month running mean) has grown from less than 1 ppm yr-1 in the early 1960s to an average ~2 ppm yr-1 in the past decade (figure 2). Although CO2 measurements were not made at sufficient locations prior to the early 1980s to calculate the global mean change, the close match of global and Mauna Loa data for later years suggests that Mauna Loa data provide a good approximation of global change (figure 2), thus allowing a useful estimate of annual global change beginning with the initiation of Mauna Loa measurements in 1958 by Keeling et al (1973). Figure 2. Figure 2. Annual increase of CO2 based on data from the NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory (ESRL 2012). CO2 change

  14. Nonlinear Dynamics of Cantilever-Sample Interactions in Atomic Force Microscopy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cantrell, John H.; Cantrell, Sean A.

    2010-01-01

    The interaction of the cantilever tip of an atomic force microscope (AFM) with the sample surface is obtained by treating the cantilever and sample as independent systems coupled by a nonlinear force acting between the cantilever tip and a volume element of the sample surface. The volume element is subjected to a restoring force from the remainder of the sample that provides dynamical equilibrium for the combined systems. The model accounts for the positions on the cantilever of the cantilever tip, laser probe, and excitation force (if any) via a basis set of set of orthogonal functions that may be generalized to account for arbitrary cantilever shapes. The basis set is extended to include nonlinear cantilever modes. The model leads to a pair of coupled nonlinear differential equations that are solved analytically using a matrix iteration procedure. The effects of oscillatory excitation forces applied either to the cantilever or to the sample surface (or to both) are obtained from the solution set and applied to the to the assessment of phase and amplitude signals generated by various acoustic-atomic force microscope (A-AFM) modalities. The influence of bistable cantilever modes of on AFM signal generation is discussed. The effects on the cantilever-sample surface dynamics of subsurface features embedded in the sample that are perturbed by surface-generated oscillatory excitation forces and carried to the cantilever via wave propagation are accounted by the Bolef-Miller propagating wave model. Expressions pertaining to signal generation and image contrast in A-AFM are obtained and applied to amplitude modulation (intermittent contact) atomic force microscopy and resonant difference-frequency atomic force ultrasonic microscopy (RDF-AFUM). The influence of phase accumulation in A-AFM on image contrast is discussed, as is the effect of hard contact and maximum nonlinearity regimes of A-AFM operation.

  15. Numerical estimation of 3D mechanical forces exerted by cells on non-linear materials.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Palacio, J; Jorge-Peñas, A; Muñoz-Barrutia, A; Ortiz-de-Solorzano, C; de Juan-Pardo, E; García-Aznar, J M

    2013-01-04

    The exchange of physical forces in both cell-cell and cell-matrix interactions play a significant role in a variety of physiological and pathological processes, such as cell migration, cancer metastasis, inflammation and wound healing. Therefore, great interest exists in accurately quantifying the forces that cells exert on their substrate during migration. Traction Force Microscopy (TFM) is the most widely used method for measuring cell traction forces. Several mathematical techniques have been developed to estimate forces from TFM experiments. However, certain simplifications are commonly assumed, such as linear elasticity of the materials and/or free geometries, which in some cases may lead to inaccurate results. Here, cellular forces are numerically estimated by solving a minimization problem that combines multiple non-linear FEM solutions. Our simulations, free from constraints on the geometrical and the mechanical conditions, show that forces are predicted with higher accuracy than when using the standard approaches.

  16. The radiative forcing potential of different climate geoengineering options

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. M. Lenton

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available Climate geoengineering proposals seek to rectify the Earth's current radiative imbalance, either by reducing the absorption of incoming solar (shortwave radiation, or by removing CO2 from the atmosphere and transferring it to long-lived reservoirs, thus increasing outgoing longwave radiation. A fundamental criterion for evaluating geoengineering options is their climate cooling effectiveness, which we quantify here in terms of radiative forcing potential. We use a simple analytical approach, based on the global energy balance and pulse response functions for the decay of CO2 perturbations. This aids transparency compared to calculations with complex numerical models, but is not intended to be definitive. Already it reveals some significant errors in existing calculations, and it allows us to compare the relative effectiveness of a range of proposals. By 2050, only stratospheric aerosol injections or sunshades in space have the potential to cool the climate back toward its pre-industrial state, but some land carbon cycle geoengineering options are of comparable magnitude to mitigation "wedges". Strong mitigation, i.e. large reductions in CO2 emissions, combined with global-scale air capture and storage, afforestation, and bio-char production, i.e. enhanced CO2 sinks, might be able to bring CO2 back to its pre-industrial level by 2100, thus removing the need for other geoengineering. Alternatively, strong mitigation stabilising CO2 at 500 ppm, combined with geoengineered increases in the albedo of marine stratiform clouds, grasslands, croplands and human settlements might achieve a patchy cancellation of radiative forcing. Ocean fertilisation options are only worthwhile if sustained on a millennial timescale and phosphorus addition probably has greater long-term potential than iron or nitrogen fertilisation. Enhancing ocean upwelling or downwelling have trivial effects on any

  17. The radiative forcing potential of different climate geoengineering options

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. M. Lenton

    2009-08-01

    Full Text Available Climate geoengineering proposals seek to rectify the Earth's current and potential future radiative imbalance, either by reducing the absorption of incoming solar (shortwave radiation, or by removing CO2 from the atmosphere and transferring it to long-lived reservoirs, thus increasing outgoing longwave radiation. A fundamental criterion for evaluating geoengineering options is their climate cooling effectiveness, which we quantify here in terms of radiative forcing potential. We use a simple analytical approach, based on energy balance considerations and pulse response functions for the decay of CO2 perturbations. This aids transparency compared to calculations with complex numerical models, but is not intended to be definitive. It allows us to compare the relative effectiveness of a range of proposals. We consider geoengineering options as additional to large reductions in CO2 emissions. By 2050, some land carbon cycle geoengineering options could be of comparable magnitude to mitigation "wedges", but only stratospheric aerosol injections, albedo enhancement of marine stratocumulus clouds, or sunshades in space have the potential to cool the climate back toward its pre-industrial state. Strong mitigation, combined with global-scale air capture and storage, afforestation, and bio-char production, i.e. enhanced CO2 sinks, might be able to bring CO2 back to its pre-industrial level by 2100, thus removing the need for other geoengineering. Alternatively, strong mitigation stabilising CO2 at 500 ppm, combined with geoengineered increases in the albedo of marine stratiform clouds, grasslands, croplands and human settlements might achieve a patchy cancellation of radiative forcing. Ocean fertilisation options are only worthwhile if sustained on a millennial timescale and phosphorus addition may have greater long-term potential than iron or nitrogen fertilisation. Enhancing ocean

  18. Potential climate forcing of land use and land cover change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. S. Ward

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available Pressure on land resources is expected to increase as global population continues to climb and the world becomes more affluent, swelling the demand for food. Changing climate may exert additional pressures on natural lands as present day productive regions may shift, or soil quality may degrade, and the recent rise in demand for biofuels increases competition with edible crops for arable land. Given these projected trends there is a need to understand the global climate impacts of land use and land cover change (LULCC. Here we quantify the climate impacts of global LULCC in terms of modifications to the balance between incoming and outgoing radiation at the top of the atmosphere (radiative forcing; RF that are caused by changes in long-lived and short-lived greenhouse gas concentrations, aerosol effects and land surface albedo. We simulate historical changes to terrestrial carbon storage, global fire emissions, secondary organic aerosol emissions, and surface albedo from LULCC using the Community Land Model version 3.5. These LULCC emissions are combined with estimates of agricultural emissions of important trace gases and mineral dust in two sets of Community Atmosphere Model simulations to calculate the RF from LULCC impacts on atmospheric chemistry and changes in aerosol concentrations. With all forcing agents considered together, we show that 45% (+30%, −20% of the present-day anthropogenic RF can be attributed to LULCC. Changes in the emission of non-CO2 greenhouse gases and aerosols from LULCC enhance the total LULCC RF by a factor of 2 to 3 with respect to the LULCC RF from CO2 alone. This enhancement factor also applies to projected LULCC RF, which we compute for four future scenarios associated with the Representative Concentration Pathways. We calculate total RFs between 1 to 2 W m−2 from LULCC for the year 2100 (relative to a preindustrial state. To place an upper bound on the potential of LULCC to alter the global radiation

  19. Position and force tracking in nonlinear teleoperation systems with sandwich linearity in actuators and time-varying delay

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ganjefar, Soheil; Rezaei, Sara; Hashemzadeh, Farzad

    2017-03-01

    In this paper, a new bounded force feedback control law is proposed to guarantee position and force tracking in nonlinear teleoperation systems in the presence of passive and nonpassive input interaction forces, time varying delay in their communication channels and sandwich linearity in their actuators. The proposed control is a nonlinear-proportional plus nonlinear damping (nP+nD) controller with the addition of a nonlinear function of the environment force on the slave side and nonlinear function of the human force and force error on the master side, the transparency of the proposed scheme will be improved. The controller prevents the inputs from reaching their usual actuator bounds. Using a novel Lyapunov-Krasovskii functional, the asymptotic stability and tracking performance of the teleoperation system are established under some conditions on the controller parameters, actuator saturation characteristics and maximum allowable time delays.

  20. Long-term climate response to stabilized and overshoot anthropogenic forcings beyond the twenty-first century

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tsutsui, Junichi; Yoshida, Yoshikatsu; Kim, Dong-Hoon; Kitabata, Hideyuki; Nishizawa, Keiichi; Nakashiki, Norikazu; Maruyama, Koki [Central Research Institute of Electric Power Industry, Chiba (Japan)

    2007-02-15

    From multi-ensembles of climate simulations using the Community Climate System Model version 3, global climate changes have been investigated focusing on long-term responses to stabilized anthropogenic forcings. In addition to the standard forcing scenarios for the current international assessment, an overshoot scenario, where radiative forcings are decreased from one stabilized level to another, is also considered. The globally-averaged annual surface air temperature increases during the twenty-first century by 2.58 and 1.56 C for increased forcings under two future scenarios denoted by A1B and B1, respectively. These changes continue but at much slower rates in later centuries under forcings stabilized at year 2100. The overshoot scenario provides a different pathway to the lower B1 level by way of the greater A1B level. This scenario results in a surface climate similar to that in the B1 scenario within 100 years after the forcing reaches the B1 level. Contrasting to the surface changes, responses in the ocean are significantly delayed. It is estimated from the linear response theory that temperature changes under stabilized forcings to a final equilibrium state in the A1B (B1) scenario are factors of 0.3-0.4, 0.9, and 17 (0.3, 0.6, and 11) to changes during the twenty-first century, respectively, for three ocean layers of the surface to 100, 100-500, and 500 m to the bottom. Although responses in the lower ocean layers imply a nonlinear behavior, the ocean temperatures in the overshoot and B1 scenarios are likely to converge in their final equilibrium states. (orig.)

  1. The need for geophysical analytics to support climate forced governance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Park, J. C.; Obeysekera, J.; Enfield, D.

    2010-12-01

    Water resource governance is among the most fundamental societal undertakings. The hydrological cycle is obviously climate forced, yet there does not exist mature linkage between analytical climate products and decision-support information needed by water resource agencies, particularly in view of expected changes in future climate. For example, how do decadal and multi-decadal atmospheric cycles relate to precipitation and evapotranspiration on subregional scales, and how should such findings be incorporated into water resource management? The need to develop such linkages has been recognized for some time (National Academies 1999) and recent research attention has focused in that direction (National Science Foundation 2010). To exemplify such an effort we present a model for coastal storm surge exceedence distributions created by synthesis of a probabilistic expression of phase changes of the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO) (Enfield and Cid-Serrano 1996) with AMO-dependent extreme value distributions of storm surge at Key West and Pensacola Florida. The result provides AMO-dependent projections of storm surge which can be used to inform decision makers on the likelihood of surge conditions. Although the results are novel, and the method simple, it would not be possible unless the AMO transition probabilities were available. Therefore, in addition to exposition of the model synthesis presented here, we feel it is imperative and a societal responsibility for the geophysical community to develop decision support analytics addressing the needs of local and regional governing agencies. National Academies (1999), Hydrologic Science Priorities for the U.S. Global Change Research Program: An Initial Assessment, ISBN-13: 978-0-309-06648-8, http://www.nap.edu/catalog.php?record_id=9659 National Science Foundation (2010), Water Sustainability and Climate, NSF Program Solicitation 10-524, http://www.nsf.gov/pubs/2010/nsf10524/nsf10524.htm Enfield D.B. and Cid

  2. 21st century change in ocean response to climate forcing

    CERN Document Server

    Marčelja, Stjepan

    2015-01-01

    Modeling globally averaged information on climate forcing from the land surface temperature data, the sea surface temperatures (SST) and the empirically determined relationship between the changes in SST and the turbulent diffusion of heat into the upper ocean demonstrates a consistent link. The modeling is accurate throughout the 20th century despite the different phases of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO) or the strong divergence between land and ocean surface warming. It only fails during the last 15 years when SST drops well below the trend. The finding reinforces the view that slower global warming over the previous 15 years is not a caused by a negative phase of the IPO or by the variations in the upper ocean (top 700 m) warming but results from a change in the ocean behavior leading to increased heat transfer into the deeper ocean.

  3. Atlantic overturning responses to Late Pleistocene climate forcings.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lisiecki, Lorraine E; Raymo, Maureen E; Curry, William B

    2008-11-06

    The factors driving glacial changes in ocean overturning circulation are not well understood. On the basis of a comparison of 20 climate variables over the past four glacial cycles, the SPECMAP project proposed that summer insolation at high northern latitudes (that is, Milankovitch forcing) drives the same sequence of ocean circulation and other climate responses over 100-kyr eccentricity cycles, 41-kyr obliquity cycles and 23-kyr precession cycles. SPECMAP analysed the circulation response at only a few sites in the Atlantic Ocean, however, and the phase of circulation response has been shown to vary by site and orbital band. Here we test the SPECMAP hypothesis by measuring the phase of orbital responses in benthic delta(13)C (a proxy indicator of ocean nutrient content) at 24 sites throughout the Atlantic over the past 425 kyr. On the basis of delta(13)C responses at 3,000-4,010 m water depth, we find that maxima in Milankovitch forcing are associated with greater mid-depth overturning in the obliquity band but less overturning in the precession band. This suggests that Atlantic overturning is strongly sensitive to factors beyond ice volume and summer insolation at high northern latitudes. A better understanding of these processes could lead to improvements in model estimates of overturning rates, which range from a 40 per cent increase to a 40 per cent decrease at the Last Glacial Maximum and a 10-50 per cent decrease over the next 140 yr in response to projected increases in atmospheric CO(2) (ref. 4).

  4. Climate change forces new ecological states in tropical Andean lakes.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Neal Michelutti

    Full Text Available Air temperatures in the tropical Andes have risen at an accelerated rate relative to the global average over recent decades. However, the effects of climate change on Andean lakes, which are vital to sustaining regional biodiversity and serve as an important water resource to local populations, remain largely unknown. Here, we show that recent climate changes have forced alpine lakes of the equatorial Andes towards new ecological and physical states, in close synchrony to the rapid shrinkage of glaciers regionally. Using dated sediment cores from three lakes in the southern Sierra of Ecuador, we record abrupt increases in the planktonic thalassiosiroid diatom Discostella stelligera from trace abundances to dominance within the phytoplankton. This unprecedented shift occurs against the backdrop of rising temperatures, changing atmospheric pressure fields, and declining wind speeds. Ecological restructuring in these lakes is linked to warming and/or enhanced water column stratification. In contrast to seasonally ice-covered Arctic and temperate alpine counterparts, aquatic production has not increased universally with warming, and has even declined in some lakes, possibly because enhanced thermal stability impedes the re-circulation of hypolimnetic nutrients to surface waters. Our results demonstrate that these lakes have already passed important ecological thresholds, with potentially far-reaching consequences for Andean water resources.

  5. Approximations for Large Deflection of a Cantilever Beam under a Terminal Follower Force and Nonlinear Pendulum

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H. Vázquez-Leal

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available In theoretical mechanics field, solution methods for nonlinear differential equations are very important because many problems are modelled using such equations. In particular, large deflection of a cantilever beam under a terminal follower force and nonlinear pendulum problem can be described by the same nonlinear differential equation. Therefore, in this work, we propose some approximate solutions for both problems using nonlinearities distribution homotopy perturbation method, homotopy perturbation method, and combinations with Laplace-Padé posttreatment. We will show the high accuracy of the proposed cantilever solutions, which are in good agreement with other reported solutions. Finally, for the pendulum case, the proposed approximation was useful to predict, accurately, the period for an angle up to 179.99999999∘ yielding a relative error of 0.01222747.

  6. Force Control and Nonlinear Master-Slave Force Profile to Manage an Admittance Type Multi-Fingered Haptic User Interface

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Anthony L. Crawford

    2012-08-01

    Natural movements and force feedback are important elements in using teleoperated equipment if complex and speedy manipulation tasks are to be accomplished in remote and/or hazardous environments, such as hot cells, glove boxes, decommissioning, explosives disarmament, and space to name a few. In order to achieve this end the research presented in this paper has developed an admittance type exoskeleton like multi-fingered haptic hand user interface that secures the user’s palm and provides 3-dimensional force feedback to the user’s fingertips. Atypical to conventional haptic hand user interfaces that limit themselves to integrating the human hand’s characteristics just into the system’s mechanical design this system also perpetuates that inspiration into the designed user interface’s controller. This is achieved by manifesting the property differences of manipulation and grasping activities as they pertain to the human hand into a nonlinear master-slave force relationship. The results presented in this paper show that the admittance-type system has sufficient bandwidth that it appears nearly transparent to the user when the user is in free motion and when the system is subjected to a manipulation task, increased performance is achieved using the nonlinear force relationship compared to the traditional linear scaling techniques implemented in the vast majority of systems.

  7. Advances in projection of climate change impacts using supervised nonlinear dimensionality reduction techniques

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sarhadi, Ali; Burn, Donald H.; Yang, Ge; Ghodsi, Ali

    2017-02-01

    One of the main challenges in climate change studies is accurate projection of the global warming impacts on the probabilistic behaviour of hydro-climate processes. Due to the complexity of climate-associated processes, identification of predictor variables from high dimensional atmospheric variables is considered a key factor for improvement of climate change projections in statistical downscaling approaches. For this purpose, the present paper adopts a new approach of supervised dimensionality reduction, which is called "Supervised Principal Component Analysis (Supervised PCA)" to regression-based statistical downscaling. This method is a generalization of PCA, extracting a sequence of principal components of atmospheric variables, which have maximal dependence on the response hydro-climate variable. To capture the nonlinear variability between hydro-climatic response variables and projectors, a kernelized version of Supervised PCA is also applied for nonlinear dimensionality reduction. The effectiveness of the Supervised PCA methods in comparison with some state-of-the-art algorithms for dimensionality reduction is evaluated in relation to the statistical downscaling process of precipitation in a specific site using two soft computing nonlinear machine learning methods, Support Vector Regression and Relevance Vector Machine. The results demonstrate a significant improvement over Supervised PCA methods in terms of performance accuracy.

  8. Non-Kyoto radiative forcing in long-run greenhouse gas emissions and climate change scenarios

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rose, S.K.; Kriegler, E.; Bibas, R.; Calvin, K.; Popp, A.; van Vuuren, D.P.; Weyant, J.

    2014-01-01

    Climate policies must consider radiative forcing from Kyoto greenhouse gases, as well as other forcing constituents, such as aerosols and tropospheric ozone that result from air pollutants. Non-Kyoto forcing constituents contribute negative, as well as positive forcing, and overall increases in tota

  9. Non-Kyoto radiative forcing in long-run greenhouse gas emissions and climate change scenarios

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rose, S.K.; Kriegler, E.; Bibas, R.; Calvin, K.; Popp, A.; van Vuuren, D.P.; Weyant, J.

    2014-01-01

    Climate policies must consider radiative forcing from Kyoto greenhouse gases, as well as other forcing constituents, such as aerosols and tropospheric ozone that result from air pollutants. Non-Kyoto forcing constituents contribute negative, as well as positive forcing, and overall increases in

  10. Nonlinear dynamics of plasma oscillations modeled by a forced modified Van der Pol-Duffing oscillator

    CERN Document Server

    Miwadinou, C H; Monwanou, A V; Orou, J B Chabi

    2013-01-01

    This paper considers nonlinear dynamics of plasma oscillations modeled by a forced modified Van der Pol-Duffing oscillator. These plasma oscillations are described by a nonlinear differential equation of the form $ \\ddot{x}+ \\epsilon (1 +{x}^{2}){\\dot{x}} + x+ \\alpha \\epsilon{x}{\\dot{x}} + {\\beta}x^{2}+\\gamma x^{3}= F\\cos{\\Omega t}.$ The amplitudes of the forced harmonic, superharmonic and subharmonic oscillatory states are obtained using the harmonic balance technique and the multiple time scales methods. Bifurcation sequences displayed by the model for each type of oscillatory states are performed numerically through the fourth order Runge- Kutta scheme. The influences of the differents parameters and of amplitude of external forced have been found.

  11. Nonlinearly Additive Forces in Multivalent Ligand Binding to a Single Protein Revealed with Force Spectroscopy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ratto, T V; Rudd, R E; Langry, K C; Balhorn, R L; McElfresh, M W

    2005-07-15

    We present evidence of multivalent interactions between a single protein molecule and multiple carbohydrates at a pH where the protein can bind four ligands. The evidence is based not only on measurements of the force required to rupture the bonds formed between ConcanavalinA (ConA) and {alpha}-D-mannose, but also on an analysis of the polymer-extension force curves to infer the polymer architecture that binds the protein to the cantilever and the ligands to the substrate. We find that although the rupture forces for multiple carbohydrate connections to a single protein are larger than the rupture force for a single connection, they do not scale additively with increasing number. Specifically, the most common rupture forces are approximately 46, 66, and 85 pN, which we argue corresponds to 1, 2, and 3 ligands being pulled simultaneously from a single protein as corroborated by an analysis of the linkage architecture. As in our previous work polymer tethers allow us to discriminate between specific and non-specific binding. We analyze the binding configuration (i.e. serial versus parallel connections) through fitting the polymer stretching data with modified Worm-Like Chain (WLC) models that predict how the effective stiffness of the tethers is affected by multiple connections. This analysis establishes that the forces we measure are due to single proteins interacting with multiple ligands, the first force spectroscopy study that establishes single-molecule multivalent binding unambiguously.

  12. Nonlinear Shock and Kink Waves with Complete Coriolis Force in Earth's Atmosphere

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    YU Xin; ZHAO Qiang

    2009-01-01

    Nonlinear waves in a Boussinesq fluid model which includes both the vertical and horizontal components of Coriolis force are studied by using the semi-geostrophic approximation and the method of travelling-wave solution.Taylor series expansion has been employed to isolate the characteristics of the linear Rossby waves and to identify the nonlinear shock and kink waves.The KdV-Burgers and the compound KdV-Burgers equations are derived,their shock wave and kink wave solution are also obtained.

  13. ELECTRICALLY FORCED THICKNESS-SHEAR VIBRATIONS OF QUARTZ PLATE WITH NONLINEAR COUPLING TO EXTENSION

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Rongxing Wu; Jiashi Yang; Jianke Du; Ji Wang

    2008-01-01

    We study electrically forced nonlinear thickness-shear vibrations of a quartz plate resonator with relatively large amplitude. It is shown that thickness-shear is nonlinearly coupled to extension due to the well-known Poynting effect in nonlinear elasticity. This coupling is relatively strong when the resonant frequency of the extensional mode is about twice the resonant frequency of the thickness-shear mode. This happens when the plate length/thickness ratio assumes certain values. With this nonlinear coupling, the thickness-shear motion is no longer sinusoidal. Coupling to extension also affects energy trapping which is related to device mounting. When damping is 0.01, nonlinear coupling causes a frequency shift of the order of 10-e which is not insignificant,and an amplitude change of the order of 10-8. The effects are expected to be stronger under real damping of 10-5 or larger. To avoid nonlinear coupling to extension, certain values of the aspect ratio of the plate should be avoided.

  14. Impacts of forced and unforced climate variability on extreme floods using a large climate ensemble

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martel, Jean-Luc; Brissette, François; Chen, Jie

    2016-04-01

    Frequency analysis has been widely used for the inference of flood magnitude and rainfall intensity required in engineering design. However, this inference is based on the concept of stationarity. How accurate is it when taking into account climate variability (i.e. both internal- and externally-forced variabilities)? Even in the absence of human-induced climate change, the short temporal horizon of the historical records renders this task extremely difficult to accomplish. To overcome this situation, large ensembles of simulations from a single climate model can be used to assess the impact of climate variability on precipitation and streamflow extremes. Thus, the objective of this project is to determine the reliability of return period estimates using the CanESM2 large ensemble. The spring flood annual maxima metric over snowmelt-dominated watersheds was selected to take into account the limits of global circulation models to properly simulate convective precipitation. The GR4J hydrological model coupled with the CemaNeige snow model was selected and calibrated using gridded observation datasets on snowmelt-dominated watersheds in Quebec, Canada. Using the hydrological model, streamflows were simulated using bias corrected precipitation and temperature data from the 50 members of CanESM2. Flood frequency analyses on the spring flood annual maxima were then computed using the Gumbel distribution with a 90% confidence interval. The 20-year return period estimates were then compared to assess the impact of natural climate variability over the 1971-2000 return period. To assess the impact of global warming, this methodology was then repeated for three time slices: reference period (1971-2000), near future (2036-2065) and far future (2071-2100). Over the reference period results indicate that the relative error between the return period estimates of two members can be up to 25%. Regarding the near future and far future periods, natural climate variability of extreme

  15. A unified nonlinear stochastic time series analysis for climate science

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moon, Woosok; Wettlaufer, John S.

    2017-03-01

    Earth’s orbit and axial tilt imprint a strong seasonal cycle on climatological data. Climate variability is typically viewed in terms of fluctuations in the seasonal cycle induced by higher frequency processes. We can interpret this as a competition between the orbitally enforced monthly stability and the fluctuations/noise induced by weather. Here we introduce a new time-series method that determines these contributions from monthly-averaged data. We find that the spatio-temporal distribution of the monthly stability and the magnitude of the noise reveal key fingerprints of several important climate phenomena, including the evolution of the Arctic sea ice cover, the El Nio Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the Atlantic Nio and the Indian Dipole Mode. In analogy with the classical destabilising influence of the ice-albedo feedback on summertime sea ice, we find that during some time interval of the season a destabilising process operates in all of these climate phenomena. The interaction between the destabilisation and the accumulation of noise, which we term the memory effect, underlies phase locking to the seasonal cycle and the statistical nature of seasonal predictability.

  16. A unified nonlinear stochastic time series analysis for climate science

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moon, Woosok; Wettlaufer, John S.

    2017-01-01

    Earth’s orbit and axial tilt imprint a strong seasonal cycle on climatological data. Climate variability is typically viewed in terms of fluctuations in the seasonal cycle induced by higher frequency processes. We can interpret this as a competition between the orbitally enforced monthly stability and the fluctuations/noise induced by weather. Here we introduce a new time-series method that determines these contributions from monthly-averaged data. We find that the spatio-temporal distribution of the monthly stability and the magnitude of the noise reveal key fingerprints of several important climate phenomena, including the evolution of the Arctic sea ice cover, the El Nio Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the Atlantic Nio and the Indian Dipole Mode. In analogy with the classical destabilising influence of the ice-albedo feedback on summertime sea ice, we find that during some time interval of the season a destabilising process operates in all of these climate phenomena. The interaction between the destabilisation and the accumulation of noise, which we term the memory effect, underlies phase locking to the seasonal cycle and the statistical nature of seasonal predictability. PMID:28287128

  17. Experimental damage detection of cracked beams by using nonlinear characteristics of forced response

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andreaus, U.; Baragatti, P.

    2012-08-01

    Experimental evaluation of the flexural forced vibrations of a steel cantilever beam having a transverse surface crack extending uniformly along the width of the beam was performed, where an actual fatigue crack was introduced instead - as usual - of a narrow slot. The nonlinear aspects of the dynamic response of the beam under harmonic excitation were considered and the relevant quantitative parameters were evaluated, in order to relate the nonlinear resonances to the presence and size of the crack. To this end, the existence of sub- and super-harmonic components in the Fourier spectra of the acceleration signals was evidenced, and their amplitudes were quantified. In particular, the acceleration signals were measured in different positions along the beam axis and under different forcing levels at the beam tip. The remarkable relevance of the above mentioned nonlinear characteristics, and their substantial independence on force magnitude and measurement point were worthily noted in comparison with the behavior of the intact beam. Thus, a reliable method of damage detection was proposed which was based on simple tests requiring only harmonically forcing and acceleration measuring in any point non-necessarily near the crack. Then, the time-history of the acceleration recorded at the beam tip was numerically processed in order to obtain the time-histories of velocity and displacement. The nonlinear features of the forced response were described and given a physical interpretation in order to define parameters suitable for damage detection. The efficiency of such parameters was discussed with respect to the their capability of detecting damage and a procedure for damage detection was proposed which was able to detect even small cracks by using simple instruments. A finite element model of the cantilever beam was finally assembled and tuned in order to numerically simulate the results of the experimental tests.

  18. Retrofitting Forced Air Combi Systems: A Cold Climate Field Assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Schoenbauer, Ben [NorthernSTAR, St. Paul, MN (United States); Bohac, Dave [NorthernSTAR, St. Paul, MN (United States); McAlpine, Jack [NorthernSTAR, St. Paul, MN (United States); Hewett, Martha [NorthernSTAR, St. Paul, MN (United States)

    2017-06-01

    This project analyzed combined condensing water heaters or boilers and hydronic air coils to provide high efficiency domestic hot water (DHW) and forced air space heating. Called "combi" systems, they provided similar space and water heating performance less expensively than installing two condensing appliances. The system's installed costs were cheaper than installing a condensing furnace and either a condensing tankless or condensing storage water heater. However, combi costs must mature and be reduced before they are competitive with a condensing furnace and power vented water heater (energy factor of 0.60). Better insulation and tighter envelopes are reducing space heating loads for new and existing homes. For many homes, decreased space heating loads make it possible for both space and domestic water heating loads to be provided with a single heating plant. These systems can also eliminate safety issues associated with natural draft appliances through the use of one common sealed combustion vent. The combined space and water heating approach was not a new idea. Past systems have used non-condensing heating plants, which limited their usefulness in climates with high heating loads. Previous laboratory work (Schoenbauer et al. 2012a) showed that proper installation was necessary to achieve condensing with high efficiency appliances. Careful consideration was paid to proper system sizing and minimizing the water temperature returning from the air handling unit to facilitate condensing operation.

  19. Retrofitting Forced Air Combi Systems: A Cold Climate Field Assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Schoenbauer, Ben [Univ. of Minnesota, St. Paul, MN (United States). NorthernSTAR Building America Partnership; Bohac, Dave [Univ. of Minnesota, St. Paul, MN (United States). NorthernSTAR Building America Partnership; McAlpine, Jake [Univ. of Minnesota, St. Paul, MN (United States). NorthernSTAR Building America Partnership; Hewett, Martha [Univ. of Minnesota, St. Paul, MN (United States). NorthernSTAR Building America Partnership

    2017-06-23

    This project analyzed combined condensing water heaters or boilers and hydronic air coils to provide high efficiency domestic hot water (DHW) and forced air space heating. Called 'combi' systems, they provided similar space and water heating performance less expensively than installing two condensing appliances. The system's installed costs were cheaper than installing a condensing furnace and either a condensing tankless or condensing storage water heater. However, combi costs must mature and be reduced before they are competitive with a condensing furnace and power vented water heater (energy factor of 0.60). Better insulation and tighter envelopes are reducing space heating loads for new and existing homes. For many homes, decreased space heating loads make it possible for both space and domestic water heating loads to be provided with a single heating plant. These systems can also eliminate safety issues associated with natural draft appliances through the use of one common sealed combustion vent. The combined space and water heating approach was not a new idea. Past systems have used non-condensing heating plants, which limited their usefulness in climates with high heating loads. Previous laboratory work (Schoenbauer et al. 2012a) showed that proper installation was necessary to achieve condensing with high efficiency appliances. Careful consideration was paid to proper system sizing and minimizing the water temperature returning from the air handling unit to facilitate condensing operation.

  20. Free and Forced Vibrations of the Strongly Nonlinear Cubic-Quintic Duffing Oscillators

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karahan, M. M. Fatih; Pakdemirli, Mehmet

    2017-01-01

    Strongly nonlinear cubic-quintic Duffing oscillatoris considered. Approximate solutions are derived using the multiple scales Lindstedt Poincare method (MSLP), a relatively new method developed for strongly nonlinear oscillators. The free undamped oscillator is considered first. Approximate analytical solutions of the MSLP are contrasted with the classical multiple scales (MS) method and numerical simulations. It is found that contrary to the classical MS method, the MSLP can provide acceptable solutions for the case of strong nonlinearities. Next, the forced and damped case is treated. Frequency response curves of both the MS and MSLP methods are obtained and contrasted with the numerical solutions. The MSLP method and numerical simulations are in good agreement while there are discrepancies between the MS and numerical solutions.

  1. Nonlinear dynamic analysis of atomic force microscopy under deterministic and random excitation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pishkenari, Hossein Nejat [Center of Excellence in Design, Robotics and Automation (CEDRA), School of Mechanical Engineering, Sharif University of Technology, Tehran (Iran, Islamic Republic of); Behzad, Mehdi [Center of Excellence in Design, Robotics and Automation (CEDRA), School of Mechanical Engineering, Sharif University of Technology, Tehran (Iran, Islamic Republic of)], E-mail: m_behzad@sharif.edu; Meghdari, Ali [Center of Excellence in Design, Robotics and Automation (CEDRA), School of Mechanical Engineering, Sharif University of Technology, Tehran (Iran, Islamic Republic of)

    2008-08-15

    The atomic force microscope (AFM) system has evolved into a useful tool for direct measurements of intermolecular forces with atomic-resolution characterization that can be employed in a broad spectrum of applications. This paper is devoted to the analysis of nonlinear behavior of amplitude modulation (AM) and frequency modulation (FM) modes of atomic force microscopy. For this, the microcantilever (which forms the basis for the operation of AFM) is modeled as a single mode approximation and the interaction between the sample and cantilever is derived from a van der Waals potential. Using perturbation methods such as averaging, and Fourier transform nonlinear equations of motion are analytically solved and the advantageous results are extracted from this nonlinear analysis. The results of the proposed techniques for AM-AFM, clearly depict the existence of two stable and one unstable (saddle) solutions for some of exciting parameters under deterministic vibration. The basin of attraction of two stable solutions is different and dependent on the exciting frequency. From this analysis the range of the frequency which will result in a unique periodic response can be obtained and used in practical experiments. Furthermore the analytical responses determined by perturbation techniques can be used to detect the parameter region where the chaotic motion is avoided. On the other hand for FM-AFM, the relation between frequency shift and the system parameters can be extracted and used for investigation of the system nonlinear behavior. The nonlinear behavior of the oscillating tip can easily explain the observed shift of frequency as a function of tip sample distance. Also in this paper we have investigated the AM-AFM system response under a random excitation. Using two different methods we have obtained the statistical properties of the tip motion. The results show that we can use the mean square value of tip motion to image the sample when the excitation signal is random.

  2. Nonlinear force-free modelling: influence of inaccuracies in the measured magnetic vector

    CERN Document Server

    Wiegelmann, T; Solanki, S K; Lagg, A

    2009-01-01

    Context: Solar magnetic fields are regularly extrapolated into the corona starting from photospheric magnetic measurements that can suffer from significant uncertainties. Aims: Here we study how inaccuracies introduced into the maps of the photospheric magnetic vector from the inversion of ideal and noisy Stokes parameters influence the extrapolation of nonlinear force-free magnetic fields. Methods: We compute nonlinear force-free magnetic fields based on simulated vector magnetograms, which have been produced by the inversion of Stokes profiles, computed froma 3-D radiation MHD simulation snapshot. These extrapolations are compared with extrapolations starting directly from the field in the MHD simulations, which is our reference. We investigate how line formation and instrumental effects such as noise, limited spatial resolution and the effect of employing a filter instrument influence the resulting magnetic field structure. The comparison is done qualitatively by visual inspection of the magnetic field dis...

  3. Nonlinear traveling wave vibration of a circular cylindrical shell subjected to a moving concentrated harmonic force

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Y. Q.; Guo, X. H.; Li, Y. G.; Li, J.

    2010-03-01

    This is a study of nonlinear traveling wave response of a cantilever circular cylindrical shell subjected to a concentrated harmonic force moving in a concentric circular path at a constant velocity. Donnell's shallow-shell theory is used, so that moderately large vibrations are analyzed. The problem is reduced to a system of ordinary differential equations by means of the Galerkin method. Frequency-responses for six different mode expansions are studied and compared with that for single mode to find the more contracted and accurate mode expansion investigating traveling wave vibration. The method of harmonic balance is applied to study the nonlinear dynamic response in forced oscillations of this system. Results obtained with analytical method are compared with numerical simulation, and the agreement between them bespeaks the validity of the method developed in this paper. The stability of the period solutions is also examined in detail.

  4. Dynamics of excited instantons in the system of forced Gursey nonlinear differential equations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Aydogmus, F., E-mail: fatma.aydogmus@gmail.com [Istanbul University, Department of Physics, Faculty of Science (Turkey)

    2015-02-15

    The Gursey model is a 4D conformally invariant pure fermionic model with a nonlinear spinor self-coupled term. Gursey proposed his model as a possible basis for a unitary description of elementary particles following the “Heisenberg dream.” In this paper, we consider the system of Gursey nonlinear differential equations (GNDEs) formed by using the Heisenberg ansatz. We use it to understand how the behavior of spinor-type Gursey instantons can be affected by excitations. For this, the regular and chaotic numerical solutions of forced GNDEs are investigated by constructing their Poincaré sections in phase space. A hierarchical cluster analysis method for investigating the forced GNDEs is also presented.

  5. Bifurcations and chaotic threshold for a nonlinear system with an irrational restoring force

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Tian Rui-Lan; Yang Xin-Wei; Cao Qing-Jie; Wu Qi-Liang

    2012-01-01

    Nonlinear dynamical systems with an irrational restoring force often occur in both science and engineering,and always lead to a barrier for conventional nonlinear techniques.In this paper,we have investigated the global bifurcations and the chaos directly for a nonlinear system with irrational nonlinearity avoiding the conventional Taylor's expansion to retain the natural characteristics of the system.A series of transformations are proposed to convert the homoclinic orbits of the unperturbed system to the heteroclinic orbits in the new coordinate,which can be transformed back to the analytical expressions of the homoclinic orbits.Melnikov's method is employed to obtain the criteria for chaotic motion,which implies that the existence of homoclinic orbits to chaos arose from the breaking of homoclinic orbits under the perturbation of damping and external forcing.The efficiency of the criteria for chaotic motion obtained in this paper is verified via bifurcation diagrams,Lyapunov exponents,and numerical simulations.It is worthwhile noting that our study is an attempt to make a step toward the solution of the problem proposed by Cao Q Jet al.(Cao Q J,Wiercigroch M,Pavlovskaia E E,Thompson J M T and Grebogi C 2008 Phil.Trans.R.Soc.A 366 635).

  6. Bifurcations and chaotic threshold for a nonlinear system with an irrational restoring force

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tian, Rui-Lan; Yang, Xin-Wei; Cao, Qing-Jie; Wu, Qi-Liang

    2012-02-01

    Nonlinear dynamical systems with an irrational restoring force often occur in both science and engineering, and always lead to a barrier for conventional nonlinear techniques. In this paper, we have investigated the global bifurcations and the chaos directly for a nonlinear system with irrational nonlinearity avoiding the conventional Taylor's expansion to retain the natural characteristics of the system. A series of transformations are proposed to convert the homoclinic orbits of the unperturbed system to the heteroclinic orbits in the new coordinate, which can be transformed back to the analytical expressions of the homoclinic orbits. Melnikov's method is employed to obtain the criteria for chaotic motion, which implies that the existence of homoclinic orbits to chaos arose from the breaking of homoclinic orbits under the perturbation of damping and external forcing. The efficiency of the criteria for chaotic motion obtained in this paper is verified via bifurcation diagrams, Lyapunov exponents, and numerical simulations. It is worthwhile noting that our study is an attempt to make a step toward the solution of the problem proposed by Cao Q J et al. (Cao Q J, Wiercigroch M, Pavlovskaia E E, Thompson J M T and Grebogi C 2008 Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A 366 635).

  7. A Weakly Nonlinear Model for the Damping of Resonantly Forced Density Waves in Dense Planetary Rings

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lehmann, Marius; Schmidt, Jürgen; Salo, Heikki

    2016-10-01

    In this paper, we address the stability of resonantly forced density waves in dense planetary rings. Goldreich & Tremaine have already argued that density waves might be unstable, depending on the relationship between the ring’s viscosity and the surface mass density. In the recent paper Schmidt et al., we have pointed out that when—within a fluid description of the ring dynamics—the criterion for viscous overstability is satisfied, forced spiral density waves become unstable as well. In this case, linear theory fails to describe the damping, but nonlinearity of the underlying equations guarantees a finite amplitude and eventually a damping of the wave. We apply the multiple scale formalism to derive a weakly nonlinear damping relation from a hydrodynamical model. This relation describes the resonant excitation and nonlinear viscous damping of spiral density waves in a vertically integrated fluid disk with density dependent transport coefficients. The model consistently predicts density waves to be (linearly) unstable in a ring region where the conditions for viscous overstability are met. Sufficiently far away from the Lindblad resonance, the surface mass density perturbation is predicted to saturate to a constant value due to nonlinear viscous damping. The wave’s damping lengths of the model depend on certain input parameters, such as the distance to the threshold for viscous overstability in parameter space and the ground state surface mass density.

  8. UNBALANCE RESPONSE AND TOUCH-RUBBING THRESHOLD SPEED OF ROTOR SUBJECTED TO NONLINEAR MAGNETIC FORCES

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    JING Minqing; LI Zixin; LUO Min; YU Lie

    2008-01-01

    Because of the effect of unbalance excitation and nonlinear magnetic force, the large vibration of the rotor supported by active magnetic bearing(AMB) will go beyond the radial gap of the bearing, even causing mechanical touch-rubbing when the system works at an operational speed closer to the critical speed. In order to investigate this problem, the linear model and nonlinear model of the single mass symmetric rigid rotor system supported by AMB are established respectively and the corresponding transfer functions of close-loop system are given. To pass through the numerical calculation by using MATLAB/Simulink, the effect of both the unbalance response and threshold speed of touch-rubbing of the system subjected to nonlinear magnetic forces and nonlinear output current of power amplifier are studied. Furthermore, threshold speed of touch-rubbing of the rotor-bearing system is defined and the results of numerical simulation are presented. Finally, based on above studies, two methods of increasing the touch-rubbing threshold speed are discussed.

  9. Communication: atomic force detection of single-molecule nonlinear optical vibrational spectroscopy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saurabh, Prasoon; Mukamel, Shaul

    2014-04-28

    Atomic Force Microscopy (AFM) allows for a highly sensitive detection of spectroscopic signals. This has been first demonstrated for NMR of a single molecule and recently extended to stimulated Raman in the optical regime. We theoretically investigate the use of optical forces to detect time and frequency domain nonlinear optical signals. We show that, with proper phase matching, the AFM-detected signals closely resemble coherent heterodyne-detected signals. Applications are made to AFM-detected and heterodyne-detected vibrational resonances in Coherent Anti-Stokes Raman Spectroscopy (χ((3))) and sum or difference frequency generation (χ((2))).

  10. A method to measure the nonlinear force caused emittance growth in a RF photoinjector

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Li Zheng-Hong; Yang Zhen-Ping

    2006-01-01

    Based on the multi-slit method, a new method is introduced to measure the non linear force caused emittance growth in a RF photoinjector. It is possible to reconstruct the phase space of a beam under some conditions by the multi-slit method. Based on the reconstructed phase space, besides the emittance, the emittance growth from the distortion of the phase space can also be measured. The emittance growth results from the effects of nonlinear force acting on electron, which is very important for the high quality beam in a RF photoinjector.

  11. Orbital forcing of climate 1.4 billion years ago

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zhang, Shuichang; Wang, Xiaomei; Hammarlund, Emma U.

    2015-01-01

    Fluctuating climate is a hallmark of Earth. As one transcends deep into Earth time, however, both the evidence for and the causes of climate change become difficult to establish. We report geochemical and sedimentological evidence for repeated, short-term climate fluctuations from the exceptional...

  12. Reducing force transmissibility in multiple degrees of freedom structures through anti-symmetric nonlinear viscous damping

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Z.-K.Peng; Z.-Q.Lang; G.Meng; S.A.Billings

    2012-01-01

    In the present study,the Volterra series theory is adopted to theoretically investigate the force transmissibility of multiple degrees of freedom (MDOF) structures,in which an isolator with nonlinear anti-symmetric viscous damping is assembled.The results reveal that the anti-symmetric nonlinear viscous damping can significantly reduce the force transmissibility over all resonance regions for MDOF structures with little effect on the transmissibility over non-resonant and isolation regions.The results indicate that the vibration isolators with an anti-symmetric damping characteristic have great potential to solve the dilemma occurring in the design of linear viscously damped vibration isolators where an increase of the damping level reduces the force transmissibility over resonant frequencies but increases the transmissibility over non-resonant frequency regions.This work is an extension of a previous study in which MDOF structures installed on the mount through an isolator with cubic nonlinear damping are considered.The theoretical analysis results are also verified by simulation studies.

  13. Nonlinear programming extensions to rational function approximation methods for unsteady aerodynamic forces

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tiffany, Sherwood H.; Adams, William M., Jr.

    1988-01-01

    The approximation of unsteady generalized aerodynamic forces in the equations of motion of a flexible aircraft are discussed. Two methods of formulating these approximations are extended to include the same flexibility in constraining the approximations and the same methodology in optimizing nonlinear parameters as another currently used extended least-squares method. Optimal selection of nonlinear parameters is made in each of the three methods by use of the same nonlinear, nongradient optimizer. The objective of the nonlinear optimization is to obtain rational approximations to the unsteady aerodynamics whose state-space realization is lower order than that required when no optimization of the nonlinear terms is performed. The free linear parameters are determined using the least-squares matrix techniques of a Lagrange multiplier formulation of an objective function which incorporates selected linear equality constraints. State-space mathematical models resulting from different approaches are described and results are presented that show comparative evaluations from application of each of the extended methods to a numerical example.

  14. Porosity-dependent nonlinear forced vibration analysis of functionally graded piezoelectric smart material plates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Qing Wang, Yan; Zu, Jean W.

    2017-10-01

    This work investigates the porosity-dependent nonlinear forced vibrations of functionally graded piezoelectric material (FGPM) plates by using both analytical and numerical methods. The FGPM plates contain porosities owing to the technical issues during the preparation of FGPMs. Two types of porosity distribution, namely, even and uneven distribution, are considered. A modified power law model is adopted to describe the material properties of the porous FGPM plates. Using D’Alembert’s principle, the out-of-plane equation of motion is derived by taking into account the Kármán nonlinear geometrical relations. After that, the Galerkin method is used to discretize the equation of motion, resulting in a set of ordinary differential equations with respect to time. These ordinary differential equations are solved analytically by employing the harmonic balance method. The approximate analytical results are verified by using the adaptive step-size fourth-order Runge–Kutta method. By means of the perturbation technique, the stability of approximate analytical solutions is examined. An interesting nonlinear broadband vibration phenomenon is detected in the FGPM plates with porosities. Nonlinear frequency-response characteristics of the present smart structures are investigated for various system parameters including the porosity type, the porosity volume fraction, the electric potential, the external excitation, the damping and the constituent volume fraction. It is found that these parameters have significant effects on the nonlinear vibration characteristics of porous FGPM plates.

  15. Nonlinear Alfvén wave dynamics at a 2D magnetic null point: ponderomotive force

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thurgood, J. O.; McLaughlin, J. A.

    2013-07-01

    Context. In the linear, β = 0 MHD regime, the transient properties of magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) waves in the vicinity of 2D null points are well known. The waves are decoupled and accumulate at predictable parts of the magnetic topology: fast waves accumulate at the null point; whereas Alfvén waves cannot cross the separatricies. However, in nonlinear MHD mode conversion can occur at regions of inhomogeneous Alfvén speed, suggesting that the decoupled nature of waves may not extend to the nonlinear regime. Aims: We investigate the behaviour of low-amplitude Alfvén waves about a 2D magnetic null point in nonlinear, β = 0 MHD. Methods: We numerically simulate the introduction of low-amplitude Alfvén waves into the vicinity of a magnetic null point using the nonlinear LARE2D code. Results: Unlike in the linear regime, we find that the Alfvén wave sustains cospatial daughter disturbances, manifest in the transverse and longitudinal fluid velocity, owing to the action of nonlinear magnetic pressure gradients (viz. the ponderomotive force). These disturbances are dependent on the Alfvén wave and do not interact with the medium to excite magnetoacoustic waves, although the transverse daughter becomes focused at the null point. Additionally, an independently propagating fast magnetoacoustic wave is generated during the early stages, which transports some of the initial Alfvén wave energy towards the null point. Subsequently, despite undergoing dispersion and phase-mixing due to gradients in the Alfvén-speed profile (∇cA ≠ 0) there is no further nonlinear generation of fast waves. Conclusions: We find that Alfvén waves at 2D cold null points behave largely as in the linear regime, however they sustain transverse and longitudinal disturbances - effects absent in the linear regime - due to nonlinear magnetic pressure gradients.

  16. Increasing climate extremes under global warming - What is the driving force?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yoon, Jin-Ho

    2017-04-01

    More climate extreme events have occurred in recent years, including the continual development of extreme drought in California, the severe cold winters in the eastern U.S. since 2014, 2015 Washington drought, and excessive wildfire events over Alaska in 2015. These have been casually attributed to global warming. However, a need for further understanding of mechanisms responsible for climate extremes is growing. In this presentation, we'll use sets of climate model simulation that designed to identify the role of the oceanic feedback in increasing climate extremes under global warming. One is with a fully coupled climate model forced by 1% ramping CO2, and the other is with an atmosphere only model forced by the same CO2 forcing. By contrasting these two, an importance of the oceanic feedback in increasing climate extremes under global warming can be diagnosed.

  17. Exploiting a nonlinear restoring force to improve the performance of flow energy harvesters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bibo, Amin; Alhadidi, Ali H.; Daqaq, Mohammed F.

    2015-01-01

    This paper investigates employing a nonlinear restoring force to improve the performance of flow energy harvesters (FEHs). To that end, a galloping FEH possessing a quartic potential energy function of the form V =1/2 μy2+1/4 γy4 is considered. This potential function is used to model either a softening (μ > 0, γ 0, γ > 0), or bi-stable (μ 0) restoring force. A physics-based model of the harvester is obtained assuming piezoelectric transduction and a quasi-steady flow field. The model is validated against experimental data and used to obtain a closed-form solution of the response by employing a multiple scaling perturbation analysis using the Jacobi elliptic functions. The attained solution is subsequently used to investigate the influence of the nonlinearity on the performance of the harvester and to illustrate how to optimize the restoring force in order to maximize the output power for given design conditions and airflow parameters. Specifically, it is shown that for similar design parameters and equal magnitudes of μ, and γ, a bi-stable energy harvester outperforms all other configurations as long as the inter-well motions are activated. On the other hand, if the motion of the bi-stable harvester is limited to a single well, then a harvester incorporating a softening nonlinear restoring force outperforms all other configurations. Furthermore, when comparing two FEHs incorporating the same type of restoring force at the optimal load and similar values of μ, then the FEH with the smaller γ is shown to provide higher output power levels.

  18. Imprint of external climate forcing on coastal upwelling in past and future climate

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N. Tim

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available The Eastern Boundary Upwelling Systems are the major coastal upwelling regions. The trade winds are driving these upwelling regimes located in the subtropics at the eastern boundary of the Atlantic and Pacific Ocean. Here we analyse the impact of the external climate forcing, e.g. the greenhouse gas concentration, solar activity and volcano eruptions, on these upwelling systems in simulations of ensembles of two Earth System Models. The ensembles contain three simulations for each time period which cover the past millennium (900–1850, the 20th century (1850–2005 and the near future (2006–2100. Using a set of simulations, differing only in their initial conditions, enables us to detect whether the variability is driven internally or externally. Our analysis shows that the variability of the simulated upwelling is to the most driven internally and that there are no significant trends except for the scenario with the most dramatic increase of greenhouse gas concentrations.

  19. Understanding climate impacts on vegetation using a spatiotemporal non-linear Granger causality framework

    Science.gov (United States)

    Papagiannopoulou, Christina; Decubber, Stijn; Miralles, Diego; Demuzere, Matthias; Dorigo, Wouter; Verhoest, Niko; Waegeman, Willem

    2017-04-01

    Satellite data provide an abundance of information about crucial climatic and environmental variables. These data - consisting of global records, spanning up to 35 years and having the form of multivariate time series with different spatial and temporal resolutions - enable the study of key climate-vegetation interactions. Although methods which are based on correlations and linear models are typically used for this purpose, their assumptions for linearity about the climate-vegetation relationships are too simplistic. Therefore, we adopt a recently proposed non-linear Granger causality analysis [1], in which we incorporate spatial information, concatenating data from neighboring pixels and training a joint model on the combined data. Experimental results based on global data sets show that considering non-linear relationships leads to a higher explained variance of past vegetation dynamics, compared to simple linear models. Our approach consists of several steps. First, we compile an extensive database [1], which includes multiple data sets for land surface temperature, near-surface air temperature, surface radiation, precipitation, snow water equivalents and surface soil moisture. Based on this database, high-level features are constructed and considered as predictors in our machine-learning framework. These high-level features include (de-trended) seasonal anomalies, lagged variables, past cumulative variables, and extreme indices, all calculated based on the raw climatic data. Second, we apply a spatiotemporal non-linear Granger causality framework - in which the linear predictive model is substituted for a non-linear machine learning algorithm - in order to assess which of these predictor variables Granger-cause vegetation dynamics at each 1° pixel. We use the de-trended anomalies of Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) to characterize vegetation, being the target variable of our framework. Experimental results indicate that climate strongly (Granger

  20. Creating a New Model for Mainstreaming Climate Change Adaptation for Critical Infrastructure: The New York City Climate Change Adaptation Task Force and the NYC Panel on Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rosenzweig, C.; Solecki, W. D.; Freed, A. M.

    2008-12-01

    The New York City Climate Change Adaptation Task Force, launched in August 2008, aims to secure the city's critical infrastructure against rising seas, higher temperatures and fluctuating water supplies projected to result from climate change. The Climate Change Adaptation Task Force is part of PlaNYC, the city's long- term sustainability plan, and is composed of over 30 city and state agencies, public authorities and companies that operate the region's roads, bridges, tunnels, mass transit, and water, sewer, energy and telecommunications systems - all with critical infrastructure identified as vulnerable. It is one of the most comprehensive adaptation efforts yet launched by an urban region. To guide the effort, Mayor Michael Bloomberg has formed the New York City Panel on Climate Change (NPCC), modeled on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Experts on the panel include climatologists, sea-level rise specialists, adaptation experts, and engineers, as well as representatives from the insurance and legal sectors. The NPCC is developing planning tools for use by the Task Force members that provide information about climate risks, adaptation and risk assessment, prioritization frameworks, and climate protection levels. The advisory panel is supplying climate change projections, helping to identify at- risk infrastructure, and assisting the Task Force in developing adaptation strategies and guidelines for design of new structures. The NPCC will also publish an assessment report in 2009 that will serve as the foundation for climate change adaptation in the New York City region, similar to the IPCC reports. Issues that the Climate Change Adaptation Task Force and the NPCC are addressing include decision- making under climate change uncertainty, effective ways for expert knowledge to be incorporated into public actions, and strategies for maintaining consistent and effective attention to long-term climate change even as municipal governments cycle

  1. Limits on CO2 Climate Forcing from Recent Temperature Data of Earth

    CERN Document Server

    Douglass, David H

    2008-01-01

    The global atmospheric temperature anomalies of Earth reached a maximum in 1998 which has not been exceeded during the subsequent 10 years. The global anomalies are calculated from the average of climate effects occurring in the tropical and the extratropical latitude bands. El Nino/La Nina effects in the tropical band are shown to explain the 1998 maximum while variations in the background of the global anomalies largely come from climate effects in the northern extratropics. These effects do not have the signature associated with CO2 climate forcing. However, the data show a small underlying positive trend that is consistent with CO2 climate forcing with no-feedback.

  2. Parabolized Stability Equations analysis of nonlinear interactions with forced eigenmodes to control subsonic jet instabilities

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Itasse, Maxime, E-mail: Maxime.Itasse@onera.fr; Brazier, Jean-Philippe, E-mail: Jean-Philippe.Brazier@onera.fr; Léon, Olivier, E-mail: Olivier.Leon@onera.fr; Casalis, Grégoire, E-mail: Gregoire.Casalis@onera.fr [Onera - The French Aerospace Lab, F-31055 Toulouse (France)

    2015-08-15

    Nonlinear evolution of disturbances in an axisymmetric, high subsonic, high Reynolds number hot jet with forced eigenmodes is studied using the Parabolized Stability Equations (PSE) approach to understand how modes interact with one another. Both frequency and azimuthal harmonic interactions are analyzed by setting up one or two modes at higher initial amplitudes and various phases. While single mode excitation leads to harmonic growth and jet noise amplification, controlling the evolution of a specific mode has been made possible by forcing two modes (m{sub 1}, n{sub 1}), (m{sub 2}, n{sub 2}), such that the difference in azimuth and in frequency matches the desired “target” mode (m{sub 1} − m{sub 2}, n{sub 1} − n{sub 2}). A careful setup of the initial amplitudes and phases of the forced modes, defined as the “killer” modes, has allowed the minimizing of the initially dominant instability in the near pressure field, as well as its estimated radiated noise with a 15 dB loss. Although an increase of the overall sound pressure has been found in the range of azimuth and frequency analyzed, the present paper reveals the possibility to make the initially dominant instability ineffective acoustically using nonlinear interactions with forced eigenmodes.

  3. Planning for Climate Change: What Should the Air Force Do

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-06-26

    data and research to the contrary, the cynics of climate change should be considered statistical outliers . The following are 10 select summary...adapt to climate change, mitigate its impacts, conserve forests , and invest in clean energy technologies. We will pursue this global cooperation...with climate change and spent our time and money elsewhere. 2- Noah’s Ark. Maybe we should have listened to that flood insurance salesman

  4. Application of the Characteristic Time Expansion Method for Estimating Nonlinear Restoring Forces

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yung-Wei Chen

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper proposes a characteristic time expansion method (CTEM for estimating nonlinear restoring forces. Because noisy data and numerical instability are the main causes of numerical developing problems in an inverse field, a polynomial to identify restoring forces is usually adopted to eliminate these problems. However, results of the way doing are undesirable for a high order of polynomial. To overcome this difficulty, the characteristic length (CL is introduced into the power series, and a natural regularization technique is applied to ensure numerical stability and determine the existence of a solution. As compared to previous solutions presented in other researches, the proposed method is a desirable and accurate solver for the problem of restoring the force in the inverse vibration problems.

  5. Characterization of Orbits in the Truncated and Forced Nonlinear Shr{o}dinger Model

    CERN Document Server

    Shlizerman, E

    2005-01-01

    The truncated and forced non-linear Schr\\"{o}dinger (NLS) model is analyzed using a novel framework in which a hierarchy of bifurcations is constructed. Consequently, a classification of the types of instabilities which are expected to appear due to the forcing is provided; It is shown that by introducing the forcing frequency as a free parameter (it was set to one in most of the previous studies), the behavior near the plane wave solution for any periodic box length, in the relevant amplitude regime for the truncated system, may be set to one of six different types. Furthermore, three of the six types are associated with chaotic behavior and instabilities (homoclinic chaos, hyperbolic resonance and parabolic resonance). Finally, a simple statistical measure which distinguishes between the fundamentally different types of instabilities is proposed.

  6. Climate field reconstruction uncertainty arising from multivariate and nonlinear properties of predictors

    OpenAIRE

    M. N. Evans; Smerdon, Jason E.; Kaplan, A.; S. E. Tolwinski-Ward; González-Rouco, J. F.

    2014-01-01

    ©2014. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. Climate field reconstructions (CFRs) of the global annual surface air temperature (SAT) field and associated global area-weighted mean annual temperature (GMAT) are derived in a collection of pseudoproxy experiments for the past millennium. Pseudoproxies are modeled from temperature (T), precipitation (P), T+P, and VS-Lite (VSL), a nonlinear and multivariate proxy system model for tree ring widths. Spatial patterns of reconstruction skil...

  7. Climate field reconstruction uncertainty arising from multivariate and nonlinear properties of predictors

    OpenAIRE

    Evans, M.N.; J. E. Smerdon; Kaplan, A.; Tolwinski-Ward, S.E.; J. F. González-Rouco

    2014-01-01

    ©2014. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. Climate field reconstructions (CFRs) of the global annual surface air temperature (SAT) field and associated global area-weighted mean annual temperature (GMAT) are derived in a collection of pseudoproxy experiments for the past millennium. Pseudoproxies are modeled from temperature (T), precipitation (P), T+P, and VS-Lite (VSL), a nonlinear and multivariate proxy system model for tree ring widths. Spatial patterns of reconstruction skil...

  8. Climate shocks and rural-urban migration in Mexico: Exploring nonlinearities and thresholds.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nawrotzki, Raphael J; DeWaard, Jack; Bakhtsiyarava, Maryia; Ha, Jasmine Trang

    2017-01-01

    Adverse climatic conditions may differentially drive human migration patterns between rural and urban areas, with implications for changes in population composition and density, access to infrastructure and resources, and the delivery of essential goods and services. However, there is little empirical evidence to support this notion. In this study, we investigate the relationship between climate shocks and migration between rural and urban areas within Mexico. We combine individual records from the 2000 and 2010 Mexican censuses (n=683,518) with high-resolution climate data from Terra Populus that are linked to census data at the municipality level (n=2,321). We measure climate shocks as monthly deviation from a 30-year (1961-1990) long-term climate normal period, and uncover important nonlinearities using quadratic and cubic specifications. Satellite-based measures of urban extents allow us to classify migrant-sending and migrant-receiving municipalities as rural or urban to examine four internal migration patterns: rural-urban, rural-rural, urban-urban, and urban-rural. Among our key findings, results from multilevel models reveal that each additional drought month increases the odds of rural-urban migration by 3.6%. In contrast, the relationship between heat months and rural-urban migration is nonlinear. After a threshold of ~34 heat months is surpassed, the relationship between heat months and rural-urban migration becomes positive and progressively increases in strength. Policy and programmatic interventions may therefore reduce climate induced rural-urban migration in Mexico through rural climate change adaptation initiatives, while also assisting rural migrants in finding employment and housing in urban areas to offset population impacts.

  9. Radiative forcing and feedback by forests in warm climates - a sensitivity study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Port, Ulrike; Claussen, Martin; Brovkin, Victor

    2016-07-01

    We evaluate the radiative forcing of forests and the feedbacks triggered by forests in a warm, basically ice-free climate and in a cool climate with permanent high-latitude ice cover using the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology Earth System Model. As a paradigm for a warm climate, we choose the early Eocene, some 54 to 52 million years ago, and for the cool climate, the pre-industrial climate, respectively. To isolate first-order effects, we compare idealised simulations in which all continents are covered either by dense forests or by deserts with either bright or dark soil. In comparison with desert continents covered by bright soil, forested continents warm the planet for the early Eocene climate and for pre-industrial conditions. The warming can be attributed to different feedback processes, though. The lapse-rate and water-vapour feedback is stronger for the early Eocene climate than for the pre-industrial climate, but strong and negative cloud-related feedbacks nearly outweigh the positive lapse-rate and water-vapour feedback for the early Eocene climate. Subsequently, global mean warming by forests is weaker for the early Eocene climate than for pre-industrial conditions. Sea-ice related feedbacks are weak for the almost ice-free climate of the early Eocene, thereby leading to a weaker high-latitude warming by forests than for pre-industrial conditions. When the land is covered with dark soils, and hence, albedo differences between forests and soil are small, forests cool the early Eocene climate more than the pre-industrial climate because the lapse-rate and water-vapour feedbacks are stronger for the early Eocene climate. Cloud-related feedbacks are equally strong in both climates. We conclude that radiative forcing by forests varies little with the climate state, while most subsequent feedbacks depend on the climate state.

  10. Nonlinear Dynamical Analysis for the Cable Excited with Parametric and Forced Excitation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. Z. Qian

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Considering the deck vibration effect on the cable in cable-stayed bridge, using nonlinear structure dynamics theory, the nonlinear dynamical equation for the stayed cable excited with deck vibration is proposed. Research shows that the vertical vibration of the deck has a combined parametric and forced excitation effect on the cable when the angle of the cable is taken into consideration. Using multiscale method, the 1/2 principle parametric resonance is studied and the bifurcation equation is obtained. Despite the parameters analysis, the bifurcation characters of the dynamical system are studied. At last, by means of numerical method and software MATHMATIC, the effect rules of system parameters to the dynamical behavior of the system are studied, and some useful conclusions are obtained.

  11. Quantifying the effects of aviation on radiative forcing and temperature with a climate response model

    OpenAIRE

    Lim, L; Lee, D. S.; Sausen, R.; Ponater, M.

    2007-01-01

    Simplified climate models can be used to calculate and to compare temperature response contributions from small forcings without the need for considerable computer resources. A linear climate response model using Green’s functions has been formulated to calculate radiative forcing (RF) and the global mean temperature response from aviation. The model, LinClim, can calculate aviation RF for CO2, O3, CH4, water vapour, contrails, sulphate and black carbon aerosols. From these RFs, temperatur...

  12. New Congressional Climate Change Task Force Calls on President to Use Administrative Authority

    Science.gov (United States)

    Showstack, Randy

    2013-02-01

    Spurred by U.S. congressional inaction on climate change and by President Barack Obama's comments on the topic in his 21 January inaugural address, several Democratic members of Congress announced at a Capitol Hill briefing the formation of a bicameral task force on climate change. In addition, they have called on the president to use his administrative authority to deal with the issue.

  13. Linking the uncertainty of low frequency variability in tropical forcing in regional climate change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Forest, Chris E. [Pennsylvania State Univ., University Park, PA (United States). Dept. of Meteorology; Barsugli, Joseph J. [Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO (United States). CIRES; Li, Wei [Pennsylvania State Univ., University Park, PA (United States). Dept. of Meteorology

    2015-02-20

    The project utilizes multiple atmospheric general circulation models (AGCMs) to examine the regional climate sensitivity to tropical sea surface temperature forcing through a series of ensemble experiments. The overall goal for this work is to use the global teleconnection operator (GTO) as a metric to assess the impact of model structural differences on the uncertainties in regional climate variability.

  14. Drag force in bimodal cubic-quintic nonlinear Schr\\"odinger equation

    CERN Document Server

    Feijoo, David; Paredes, Ángel; Michinel, Humberto

    2016-01-01

    We consider a system of two cubic-quintic non-linear Schr\\"odinger equations in two dimensions, coupled by repulsive cubic terms. We analyse situations in which a probe lump of one of the modes is surrounded by a fluid of the other one and analyse their interaction. We find a realization of D'Alembert's paradox for small velocities and non-trivial drag forces for larger ones. We present numerical analysis including the search of static and traveling form-preserving solutions along with simulations of the dynamical evolution in some representative examples.

  15. Radiative forcing by forest and subsequent feedbacks in the early Eocene climate

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    U. Port

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available Using the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology Earth System Model, we investigate the forcing of forests and the feedback triggered by forests in the pre-industrial climate and in the early Eocene climate (about 54 to 52 million years ago. Other than the interglacial, pre-industrial climate, the early Eocene climate was characterised by high temperatures which led to almost ice-free poles. We compare simulations in which all continents are covered either by dense forest or by bare soil. To isolate the effect of soil albedo, we choose either bright soils or dark soils, respectively. Considering bright soil, forests warm in both, the early Eocene climate and the current climate, but the warming differs due to differences in climate feedbacks. The lapse-rate and water-vapour feedback is stronger in early Eocene climate than in current climate, but strong and negative cloud feedbacks and cloud masking in the early Eocene climate outweigh the stronger positive lapse-rate and water-vapour feedback. In the sum, global mean warming is weaker in the early Eocene climate. Sea-ice related feedbacks are weak in the almost ice-free climate of the early Eocene leading to a weak polar amplification. Considering dark soil, our results change. Forests cools stronger in the early Eocene climate than in the current climate because the lapse-rate and water-vapour feedback is stronger in the early Eocene climate while cloud feedbacks and cloud masking are equally strong in both climates. The different temperature change by forest in both climates highlights the state-dependency of vegetation's impact on climate.

  16. A Fluid Dynamics Approach for the Computation of Non-linear Force-Free Magnetic Field

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Jing-Qun Li; Jing-Xiu Wang; Feng-Si Wei

    2003-01-01

    Inspired by the analogy between the magnetic field and velocity fieldof incompressible fluid flow, we propose a fluid dynamics approach for comput-ing nonlinear force-free magnetic fields. This method has the advantage that thedivergence-free condition is automatically satisfied, which is a sticky issue for manyother algorithms, and we can take advantage of modern high resolution algorithmsto process the force-free magnetic field. Several tests have been made based on thewell-known analytic solution proposed by Low & Lou. The numerical results arein satisfactory agreement with the analytic ones. It is suggested that the newlyproposed method is promising in extrapolating the active region or the whole sunmagnetic fields in the solar atmosphere based on the observed vector magnetic fieldon the photosphere.

  17. Effects from fully nonlinear irregular wave forcing on the fatigue life of an offshore wind turbine and its monopile foundation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schløer, Signe; Bredmose, Henrik; Bingham, Harry B.;

    2013-01-01

    The effect from fully nonlinear irregular wave forcing on the fatigue life of the foundation and tower of an offshore wind turbine is investigated through aeroelastic calculations. Five representative sea states with increasing significant wave height are considered in a water depth of 40 m....... The waves are both linear and fully nonlinear irregular 2D waves. The wind turbine is the NREL 5-MW reference wind turbine. Fatigue analysis is performed in relation to analysis of the sectional forces in the tower and monopile. Impulsive excitation of the sectional force at the bottom of the tower is seen...

  18. Forest management could counteract distribution retractions forced by climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mair, Louise; Harrison, Philip J; Räty, Minna; Bärring, Lars; Strandberg, Gustav; Snäll, Tord

    2017-03-28

    Climate change is expected to drive the distribution retraction of northern species. However, particularly in regions with a history of intensive exploitation, changes in habitat management could facilitate distribution expansions counter to expectations under climate change. Here, we test the potential for future forest management to facilitate the southwards expansion of an old-forest species from the boreal region into the boreo-nemoral region, contrary to expectations under climate change. We used an ensemble of species distribution models based on citizen science data to project the response of Phellinus ferrugineofuscus, a red-listed old-growth indicator, wood-decaying fungus, to six forest management and climate change scenarios. We projected change in habitat suitability across the boreal and boreo-nemoral regions of Sweden for the period 2020-2100. Scenarios varied in the proportion of forest set-aside from production, the level of timber extraction, and the magnitude of climate change. Habitat suitabilities for the study species were projected to show larger relative increases over time in the boreo-nemoral region compared to the boreal region, under all scenarios. By 2100, mean suitabilities in set-aside forest in the boreo-nemoral region were similar to the suitabilities projected for set-aside forest in the boreal region in 2020, suggesting that occurrence in the boreo-nemoral region could be increased. However, across all scenarios, consistently higher projected suitabilities in set-aside forest in the boreal region indicated that the boreal region remained the species stronghold. Furthermore, negative effects of climate change were evident in the boreal region, and projections suggested that climatic changes may eventually counteract the positive effects of forest management in the boreo-nemoral region. Our results suggest that the current rarity of this old-growth indicator species in the boreo-nemoral region may be due to the history of intensive

  19. Long-Term Climate Forcing in Loggerhead Sea Turtle Nesting

    Science.gov (United States)

    Van Houtan, Kyle S.; Halley, John M.

    2011-01-01

    The long-term variability of marine turtle populations remains poorly understood, limiting science and management. Here we use basin-scale climate indices and regional surface temperatures to estimate loggerhead sea turtle (Caretta caretta) nesting at a variety of spatial and temporal scales. Borrowing from fisheries research, our models investigate how oceanographic processes influence juvenile recruitment and regulate population dynamics. This novel approach finds local populations in the North Pacific and Northwest Atlantic are regionally synchronized and strongly correlated to ocean conditions—such that climate models alone explain up to 88% of the observed changes over the past several decades. In addition to its performance, climate-based modeling also provides mechanistic forecasts of historical and future population changes. Hindcasts in both regions indicate climatic conditions may have been a factor in recent declines, but future forecasts are mixed. Available climatic data suggests the Pacific population will be significantly reduced by 2040, but indicates the Atlantic population may increase substantially. These results do not exonerate anthropogenic impacts, but highlight the significance of bottom-up oceanographic processes to marine organisms. Future studies should consider environmental baselines in assessments of marine turtle population variability and persistence. PMID:21589639

  20. Long-term climate forcing in loggerhead sea turtle nesting.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kyle S Van Houtan

    Full Text Available The long-term variability of marine turtle populations remains poorly understood, limiting science and management. Here we use basin-scale climate indices and regional surface temperatures to estimate loggerhead sea turtle (Caretta caretta nesting at a variety of spatial and temporal scales. Borrowing from fisheries research, our models investigate how oceanographic processes influence juvenile recruitment and regulate population dynamics. This novel approach finds local populations in the North Pacific and Northwest Atlantic are regionally synchronized and strongly correlated to ocean conditions--such that climate models alone explain up to 88% of the observed changes over the past several decades. In addition to its performance, climate-based modeling also provides mechanistic forecasts of historical and future population changes. Hindcasts in both regions indicate climatic conditions may have been a factor in recent declines, but future forecasts are mixed. Available climatic data suggests the Pacific population will be significantly reduced by 2040, but indicates the Atlantic population may increase substantially. These results do not exonerate anthropogenic impacts, but highlight the significance of bottom-up oceanographic processes to marine organisms. Future studies should consider environmental baselines in assessments of marine turtle population variability and persistence.

  1. A piecewise-integration method for simulating the influence of external forcing on climate

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Zhifu Zhang; Chongjian Qiu; Chenghai Wang

    2008-01-01

    Climate drift occurs in most general circulation models (GCMs) as a result of incomplete physical and numerical representation of the complex climate system,which may cause large uncertainty in sensitivity experiments evaluating climate response to changes in external forcing.To solve this problem,we propose a piecewise-integration method to reduce the systematic error in climate sensitivity studies.The observations are firstly assimilated into a numerical model by using the dynamic relaxation technique to relax to the current state of atmosphere,and then the assimilated fields are continuously used to reinitialize the simulation to reduce the error of climate simulation.When the numerical model is integrated with changed external forcing,the results can be split into two parts,background and perturbation fields,and the background is the state before the external forcing is changed.The piecewise-integration method is used to continuously reinitialize the model with the assimilated field,instead of the background.Therefore,the simulation error of the model with the external forcing can be reduced.In this way,the accuracy of climate sensitivity experiments is greatly improved.Tests with a simple low-order spectral model show that this approach can significantly reduce the uncertainty of climate sensitivity experiments.

  2. The 'sixth sense' of ultrasound: probing nonlinear elasticity with acoustic radiation force.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guzina, Bojan B; Dontsov, Egor V; Urban, Matthew W; Fatemi, Mostafa

    2015-05-07

    Prompted by a recent finding that the magnitude of the acoustic radiation force (ARF) in isotropic tissue-like solids depends linearly on a particular third-order modulus of elasticity-hereon denoted by C, this study investigates the possibility of estimating C from the amplitude of the ARF-generated shear waves. The featured coefficient of nonlinear elasticity, which captures the incipient nonlinear interaction between the volumetric and deviatoric modes of deformation, has so far received only a limited attention in the context of soft tissues due to the fact that the latter are often approximated as (i) fluid-like when considering ultrasound waves, and (ii) incompressible under static deformations. On establishing the analytical and computational platform for the proposed sensing methodology, the study proceeds with applying the prototype technique toward estimating via ARF the third-order modulus C in a series of tissue-mimicking phantoms. To help validate the concept and its implementation, the germane third-order modulus is independently estimated in each phantom via an established technique known as acoustoelasticity. The C-estimates obtained respectively via acoustoelasticity and the new theory of ARF show a significant degree of consistency. The key features of the new sensing methodology are that: (a) it requires no external deformation of a material other than that produced by the ARF, and (b) it estimates the nonlinear C-modulus locally, over the focal region of an ultrasound beam-where the shear waves are being generated.

  3. The ‘sixth sense’ of ultrasound: probing nonlinear elasticity with acoustic radiation force

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guzina, Bojan B.; Dontsov, Egor V.; Urban, Matthew W.; Fatemi, Mostafa

    2015-05-01

    Prompted by a recent finding that the magnitude of the acoustic radiation force (ARF) in isotropic tissue-like solids depends linearly on a particular third-order modulus of elasticity—hereon denoted by C, this study investigates the possibility of estimating C from the amplitude of the ARF-generated shear waves. The featured coefficient of nonlinear elasticity, which captures the incipient nonlinear interaction between the volumetric and deviatoric modes of deformation, has so far received only a limited attention in the context of soft tissues due to the fact that the latter are often approximated as (i) fluid-like when considering ultrasound waves, and (ii) incompressible under static deformations. On establishing the analytical and computational platform for the proposed sensing methodology, the study proceeds with applying the prototype technique toward estimating via ARF the third-order modulus C in a series of tissue-mimicking phantoms. To help validate the concept and its implementation, the germane third-order modulus is independently estimated in each phantom via an established technique known as acoustoelasticity. The C-estimates obtained respectively via acoustoelasticity and the new theory of ARF show a significant degree of consistency. The key features of the new sensing methodology are that: (a) it requires no external deformation of a material other than that produced by the ARF, and (b) it estimates the nonlinear C-modulus locally, over the focal region of an ultrasound beam—where the shear waves are being generated.

  4. Nonlinear Variations of Net Primary Productivity and Its Relationship with Climate and Vegetation Phenology, China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jian Yang

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available Net primary productivity (NPP is an important component of the terrestrial carbon cycle. In this study, NPP was estimated based on two models and Moderate Resolution Imaging Spaectroradiometer (MODIS data. The spatiotemporal patterns of NPP and the correlations with climate factors and vegetation phenology were then analyzed. Our results showed that NPP derived from MODIS performed well in China. Spatially, NPP decreased from the southeast toward the northwest. Temporally, NPP showed a nonlinear increasing trend at a national scale, but the magnitude became slow after 2004. At a regional scale, NPP in Northern China and the Tibetan Plateau showed a nonlinear increasing trend, while the NPP decreased in most areas of Southern China. The decreases in NPP were more than offset by the increases. At the biome level, all vegetation types displayed an increasing trend, except for shrub and evergreen broad forests (EBF. Moreover, a turning point year occurred for all vegetation types, except for EBF. Generally, climatic factors and Length of Season were all positively correlated with the NPP, while the relationships were much more diverse at a regional level. The direct effect of solar radiation on the NPP was larger (0.31 than precipitation (0.25 and temperature (0.07. Our results indicated that China could mitigate climate warming at a regional and/or global scale to some extent during the time period of 2001–2014.

  5. Numerical Simulation of Nonlinear Wave Force on a Quasi-ellipse Caisson

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Yongxue Wang; Xiaozhong Ren; Guoyu Wang

    2011-01-01

    A three dimensional numerical model of nonlinear wave action on a quasi-ellipse caisson in a time domain was developed in this paper.Navier-Stokes equations were solved by the finite difference method,and the volume of fluid (VOF) method was employed to trace the free surface.The partial cell method was used to deal with the irregular boundary typical of this type of problem during first-time wave interaction with the structure,and a satisfactory result was obtained.The numerical model was verified and used to investigate the effects of the relative wave height H/d,relative caisson width kD,and relative length-width ratio B/D on the wave forces of the quasi-ellipse caisson.It was shown that the relative wave height H/d has a significant effect on the wave forces of the caisson.Compared with the non-dimensional inline wave force,the relative length-width ratio B/D was shown to have significant influence on the non-dimensional transverse wave force.

  6. Differences in the efficacy of climate forcings explained by variations in atmospheric boundary layer depth.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davy, Richard; Esau, Igor

    2016-05-25

    The Earth has warmed in the last century and a large component of that warming has been attributed to increased anthropogenic greenhouse gases. There are also numerous processes that introduce strong, regionalized variations to the overall warming trend. However, the ability of a forcing to change the surface air temperature depends on its spatial and temporal distribution. Here we show that the efficacy of a forcing is determined by the effective heat capacity of the atmosphere, which in cold and dry climates is defined by the depth of the planetary boundary layer. This can vary by an order of magnitude on different temporal and spatial scales, and so we get a strongly amplified temperature response in shallow boundary layers. This must be accounted for to assess the efficacy of a climate forcing, and also implies that multiple climate forcings cannot be linearly combined to determine the temperature response.

  7. Reducing biases in regional climate downscaling by applying Bayesian model averaging on large-scale forcing

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yang, Hongwei [APEC Climate Center, Busan (Korea, Republic of); Wang, Bin [University of Hawaii at Manoa, Department of Meteorology, Honolulu, HI (United States); University of Hawaii at Manoa, International Pacific Research Center, Honolulu, HI (United States); Wang, Bin [Chinese Academy of Sciences, LASG, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Beijing (China)

    2012-11-15

    Reduction of uncertainty in large-scale lateral-boundary forcing in regional climate modeling is a critical issue for improving the performance of regional climate downscaling. Numerical simulations of 1998 East Asian summer monsoon were conducted using the Weather Research and Forecast model forced by four different reanalysis datasets, their equal-weight ensemble, and Bayesian model averaging (BMA) ensemble means. Large discrepancies were found among experiments forced by the four individual reanalysis datasets mainly due to the uncertainties in the moisture field of large-scale forcing over ocean. We used satellite water-vapor-path data as observed truth-and-training data to determine the posterior probability (weight) for each forcing dataset using the BMA method. The experiment forced by the equal-weight ensemble reduced the circulation biases significantly but reduced the precipitation biases only moderately. However, the experiment forced by the BMA ensemble outperformed not only the experiments forced by individual reanalysis datasets but also the equal-weight ensemble experiment in simulating the seasonal mean circulation and precipitation. These results suggest that the BMA ensemble method is an effective method for reducing the uncertainties in lateral-boundary forcing and improving model performance in regional climate downscaling. (orig.)

  8. Climate Forcing Datasets for Agricultural Modeling: Merged Products for Gap-Filling and Historical Climate Series Estimation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ruane, Alex C.; Goldberg, Richard; Chryssanthacopoulos, James

    2014-01-01

    The AgMERRA and AgCFSR climate forcing datasets provide daily, high-resolution, continuous, meteorological series over the 1980-2010 period designed for applications examining the agricultural impacts of climate variability and climate change. These datasets combine daily resolution data from retrospective analyses (the Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications, MERRA, and the Climate Forecast System Reanalysis, CFSR) with in situ and remotely-sensed observational datasets for temperature, precipitation, and solar radiation, leading to substantial reductions in bias in comparison to a network of 2324 agricultural-region stations from the Hadley Integrated Surface Dataset (HadISD). Results compare favorably against the original reanalyses as well as the leading climate forcing datasets (Princeton, WFD, WFD-EI, and GRASP), and AgMERRA distinguishes itself with substantially improved representation of daily precipitation distributions and extreme events owing to its use of the MERRA-Land dataset. These datasets also peg relative humidity to the maximum temperature time of day, allowing for more accurate representation of the diurnal cycle of near-surface moisture in agricultural models. AgMERRA and AgCFSR enable a number of ongoing investigations in the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) and related research networks, and may be used to fill gaps in historical observations as well as a basis for the generation of future climate scenarios.

  9. Multiple stressors, nonlinear effects and the implications of climate change impacts on marine coastal ecosystems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hewitt, Judi E; Ellis, Joanne I; Thrush, Simon F

    2016-08-01

    Global climate change will undoubtedly be a pressure on coastal marine ecosystems, affecting not only species distributions and physiology but also ecosystem functioning. In the coastal zone, the environmental variables that may drive ecological responses to climate change include temperature, wave energy, upwelling events and freshwater inputs, and all act and interact at a variety of spatial and temporal scales. To date, we have a poor understanding of how climate-related environmental changes may affect coastal marine ecosystems or which environmental variables are likely to produce priority effects. Here we use time series data (17 years) of coastal benthic macrofauna to investigate responses to a range of climate-influenced variables including sea-surface temperature, southern oscillation indices (SOI, Z4), wind-wave exposure, freshwater inputs and rainfall. We investigate responses from the abundances of individual species to abundances of functional traits and test whether species that are near the edge of their tolerance to another stressor (in this case sedimentation) may exhibit stronger responses. The responses we observed were all nonlinear and some exhibited thresholds. While temperature was most frequently an important predictor, wave exposure and ENSO-related variables were also frequently important and most ecological variables responded to interactions between environmental variables. There were also indications that species sensitive to another stressor responded more strongly to weaker climate-related environmental change at the stressed site than the unstressed site. The observed interactions between climate variables, effects on key species or functional traits, and synergistic effects of additional anthropogenic stressors have important implications for understanding and predicting the ecological consequences of climate change to coastal ecosystems.

  10. Non Gaussian and Non stationary characters of ENSO: the role of climate shifts and nonlinearities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boucharel, J.; Dewitte, B.; Garel, B.; Du Penhoat, Y.

    2009-04-01

    ENSO is the dominant climate mode of variability in the Pacific, having socio-economical impacts on surrounding regions. ENSO exhibits a significant modulation at decadal to multidecadal timescales which is associated to changes of its characteristics (onset, amplitude, frequency, propagation, and predictability). Among these characteristics, some of them are generally ignored in ENSO studies, such as its asymmetry and the deviation of its statistics from those of the Gaussian distribution. These properties could be related to the ability of the current generation of coupled models to predict ENSO and its modulation. Here, the non-Gaussian nature and asymmetry of ENSO is diagnosed from in situ data and a variety of models (from intermediate complexity models to full physics coupled general circulation models) using robust statistical tools. In particular α-stable laws are used as theoretical background material to quantify the non-Gaussian character of ENSO time series. It is shown that the α-stable character of ENSO may result from the presence of climate shifts inducing non stationnarity in the time series. Also, cool (warm) periods are associated with ENSO statistics having a larger (weaker) tendency towards Gaussianity and a weaker (larger) asymmetry. This supports the hypothesis of ENSO being rectified by changes in mean state through non-linear processes. The relationship between change in mean state and non-linearity is investigated both in the Zebiak and Cane model and the IPCC models, which indicate that the propensity of a model to reproduce extreme events is related to its tendency to emphasize the non-linear interaction between mean state and ENSO variability. More particularly, high statistical moments i.e high order nonlinearities seem to be involved in the feedback between extreme events occurrence and mean state shit triggering through energy cascade, emphasizing the ENSO multifractal nature.

  11. Non Stationary And Non Gaussian Character Of ENSO: The Role Of Climate Shifts And Nonlinearities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boucharel, J.; Dewitte, B.; Garel, B.; Du Penhoat, Y.

    2008-12-01

    ENSO is the dominant climate mode of variability in the Pacific, having socio-economical impacts on surrounding regions. ENSO exhibits a significant modulation at decadal to interdecadal timescales which is associated to changes of its characteristics (onset, amplitude, frequency, propagation, and predictability). Among these characteristics, some of them are generally ignored in ENSO studies, such as its asymmetry and the deviation of its statistics from those of the Gaussian distribution. These properties could be related to the ability of the current generation of coupled models to predict ENSO and its modulation. Here, the non-Gaussian nature and asymmetry of ENSO is diagnosed from in situ data and the outputs of a variety of models (from intermediate complexity models to full physics coupled general circulation models) using robust statistical tools. In particular alpha-stable laws are used as theoretical background material to quantify the non-Gaussian character of ENSO time series. It is shown that the Alpha-stable character of ENSO may result from the presence of climate shifts inducing non stationnarity in the time series. Also, cool (warm) periods are associated with ENSO statistics having a larger (weaker) tendency towards Gaussianity and a weaker (larger) asymmetry. This supports the hypothesis of ENSO being rectified by changes in mean state through non-linear processes. The relationship between change in mean state and non-linearity is investigated both in the Zebiak and Cane model and the IPCC models, which indicate that the propensity of a model to reproduce extreme events is related to its tendency to emphasize the non-linear interaction between mean state and ENSO variability. More particularly, high statistical moments i.e. high order nonlinearities seem to be involved in the feedback between extreme events occurrence and mean state shift triggering through inverse energy cascade, emphasizing the ENSO multifractal nature.

  12. Applications of Conditional Nonlinear Optimal Perturbation in Predictability Study and Sensitivity Analysis of Weather and Climate

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2006-01-01

    Considering the limitation of the linear theory of singular vector (SV), the authors and their collaborators proposed conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation (CNOP) and then applied it in the predictability study and the sensitivity analysis of weather and climate system. To celebrate the 20th anniversary of Chinese National Committee for World Climate Research Programme (WCRP), this paper is devoted to reviewing the main results of these studies. First, CNOP represents the initial perturbation that has largest nonlinear evolution at prediction time, which is different from linear singular vector (LSV) for the large magnitude of initial perturbation or/and the long optimization time interval. Second, CNOP,rather than linear singular vector (LSV), represents the initial anomaly that evolves into ENSO events most probably. It is also the CNOP that induces the most prominent seasonal variation of error growth for ENSO predictability; furthermore, CNOP was applied to investigate the decadal variability of ENSO asymmetry. It is demonstrated that the changing nonlinearity causes the change of ENSO asymmetry.Third, in the studies of the sensitivity and stability of ocean's thermohaline circulation (THC), the non-linear asymmetric response of THC to finite amplitude of initial perturbations was revealed by CNOP.Through this approach the passive mechanism of decadal variation of THC was demonstrated; Also the authors studies the instability and sensitivity analysis of grassland ecosystem by using CNOP and show the mechanism of the transitions between the grassland and desert states. Finally, a detailed discussion on the results obtained by CNOP suggests the applicability of CNOP in predictability studies and sensitivity analysis.

  13. Are atmospheric updrafts a key to unlocking climate forcing and sensitivity?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Donner, Leo J.; O'Brien, Travis A.; Rieger, Daniel; Vogel, Bernhard; Cooke, William F.

    2016-10-01

    Both climate forcing and climate sensitivity persist as stubborn uncertainties limiting the extent to which climate models can provide actionable scientific scenarios for climate change. A key, explicit control on cloud-aerosol interactions, the largest uncertainty in climate forcing, is the vertical velocity of cloud-scale updrafts. Model-based studies of climate sensitivity indicate that convective entrainment, which is closely related to updraft speeds, is an important control on climate sensitivity. Updraft vertical velocities also drive many physical processes essential to numerical weather prediction.Vertical velocities and their role in atmospheric physical processes have been given very limited attention in models for climate and numerical weather prediction. The relevant physical scales range down to tens of meters and are thus frequently sub-grid and require parameterization. Many state-of-science convection parameterizations provide mass fluxes without specifying vertical velocities, and parameterizations that do provide vertical velocities have been subject to limited evaluation against what have until recently been scant observations. Atmospheric observations imply that the distribution of vertical velocities depends on the areas over which the vertical velocities are averaged. Distributions of vertical velocities in climate models may capture this behavior, but it has not been accounted for when parameterizing cloud and precipitation processes in current models.New observations of convective vertical velocities offer a potentially promising path toward developing process-level cloud models and parameterizations for climate and numerical weather prediction. Taking account of the scale dependence of resolved vertical velocities offers a path to matching cloud-scale physical processes and their driving dynamics more realistically, with a prospect of reduced uncertainty in both climate forcing and sensitivity.

  14. Impact of climate forcing uncertainty and human water use on global and continental water balance components

    Science.gov (United States)

    Müller Schmied, Hannes; Adam, Linda; Eisner, Stephanie; Fink, Gabriel; Flörke, Martina; Kim, Hyungjun; Oki, Taikan; Portmann, Felix Theodor; Reinecke, Robert; Riedel, Claudia; Song, Qi; Zhang, Jing; Döll, Petra

    2016-10-01

    The assessment of water balance components using global hydrological models is subject to climate forcing uncertainty as well as to an increasing intensity of human water use within the 20th century. The uncertainty of five state-of-the-art climate forcings and the resulting range of cell runoff that is simulated by the global hydrological model WaterGAP is presented. On the global land surface, about 62 % of precipitation evapotranspires, whereas 38 % discharges into oceans and inland sinks. During 1971-2000, evapotranspiration due to human water use amounted to almost 1 % of precipitation, while this anthropogenic water flow increased by a factor of approximately 5 between 1901 and 2010. Deviation of estimated global discharge from the ensemble mean due to climate forcing uncertainty is approximately 4 %. Precipitation uncertainty is the most important reason for the uncertainty of discharge and evapotranspiration, followed by shortwave downward radiation. At continental levels, deviations of water balance components due to uncertain climate forcing are higher, with the highest discharge deviations occurring for river discharge in Africa (-6 to 11 % from the ensemble mean). Uncertain climate forcings also affect the estimation of irrigation water use and thus the estimated human impact of river discharge. The uncertainty range of global irrigation water consumption amounts to approximately 50 % of the global sum of water consumption in the other water use sector.

  15. Analytical Model of the Nonlinear Dynamics of Cantilever Tip-Sample Surface Interactions for Various Acoustic-Atomic Force Microscopies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cantrell, John H., Jr.; Cantrell, Sean A.

    2008-01-01

    A comprehensive analytical model of the interaction of the cantilever tip of the atomic force microscope (AFM) with the sample surface is developed that accounts for the nonlinearity of the tip-surface interaction force. The interaction is modeled as a nonlinear spring coupled at opposite ends to linear springs representing cantilever and sample surface oscillators. The model leads to a pair of coupled nonlinear differential equations that are solved analytically using a standard iteration procedure. Solutions are obtained for the phase and amplitude signals generated by various acoustic-atomic force microscope (A-AFM) techniques including force modulation microscopy, atomic force acoustic microscopy, ultrasonic force microscopy, heterodyne force microscopy, resonant difference-frequency atomic force ultrasonic microscopy (RDF-AFUM), and the commonly used intermittent contact mode (TappingMode) generally available on AFMs. The solutions are used to obtain a quantitative measure of image contrast resulting from variations in the Young modulus of the sample for the amplitude and phase images generated by the A-AFM techniques. Application of the model to RDF-AFUM and intermittent soft contact phase images of LaRC-cp2 polyimide polymer is discussed. The model predicts variations in the Young modulus of the material of 24 percent from the RDF-AFUM image and 18 percent from the intermittent soft contact image. Both predictions are in good agreement with the literature value of 21 percent obtained from independent, macroscopic measurements of sheet polymer material.

  16. Subharmonic resonance of global climate to solar forcing

    CERN Document Server

    Bershadskii, A

    2010-01-01

    It is shown that, the wavelet regression detrended fluctuations of the monthly global temperature data (land and ocean combined) for the period 1880-2009yy, are completely dominated by one-third subharmonic resonance to annual forcing (both natural and anthropogenically induced). Role of the oceanic Rossby waves and the resonance contribution to the El Nino phenomenon have been discussed in detail.

  17. Accurate approximate solution to nonlinear oscillators in which the restoring force is inversely proportional to the dependent variable

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Belendez, A; Gimeno, E; Mendez, D I; Alvarez, M L [Departamento de Fisica, IngenierIa de Sistemas y TeorIa de la Senal, Universidad de Alicante, Apartado 99, E-03080 Alicante (Spain); Fernandez, E [Departamento de Optica, FarmacologIa y AnatomIa, Universidad de Alicante, Apartado 99, E-03080 Alicante (Spain)], E-mail: a.belendez@ua.es

    2008-06-15

    A modified generalized, rational harmonic balance method is used to construct approximate frequency-amplitude relations for a conservative nonlinear singular oscillator in which the restoring force is inversely proportional to the dependent variable. The procedure is used to solve the nonlinear differential equation approximately. The approximate frequency obtained using this procedure is more accurate than those obtained using other approximate methods and the discrepancy between the approximate frequency and the exact one is lower than 0.40%.

  18. Nonlinear effect of climate on plague during the third pandemic in China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Lei; Liu, Qiyong; Stige, Leif Chr; Ben Ari, Tamara; Fang, Xiye; Chan, Kung-Sik; Wang, Shuchun; Stenseth, Nils Chr; Zhang, Zhibin

    2011-06-21

    Over the years, plague has caused a large number of deaths worldwide and subsequently changed history, not the least during the period of the Black Death. Of the three plague pandemics, the third is believed to have originated in China. Using the spatial and temporal human plague records in China from 1850 to 1964, we investigated the association of human plague intensity (plague cases per year) with proxy data on climate condition (specifically an index for dryness/wetness). Our modeling analysis demonstrates that the responses of plague intensity to dry/wet conditions were different in northern and southern China. In northern China, plague intensity generally increased when wetness increased, for both the current and the previous year, except for low intensity during extremely wet conditions in the current year (reflecting a dome-shaped response to current-year dryness/wetness). In southern China, plague intensity generally decreased when wetness increased, except for high intensity during extremely wet conditions of the current year. These opposite effects are likely related to the different climates and rodent communities in the two parts of China: In northern China (arid climate), rodents are expected to respond positively to high precipitation, whereas in southern China (humid climate), high precipitation is likely to have a negative effect. Our results suggest that associations between human plague intensity and precipitation are nonlinear: positive in dry conditions, but negative in wet conditions.

  19. Nonlinear effect of climate on plague during the third pandemic in China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Lei; Liu, Qiyong; Stige, Leif Chr.; Ben Ari, Tamara; Fang, Xiye; Chan, Kung-Sik; Wang, Shuchun; Stenseth, Nils Chr.; Zhang, Zhibin

    2011-01-01

    Over the years, plague has caused a large number of deaths worldwide and subsequently changed history, not the least during the period of the Black Death. Of the three plague pandemics, the third is believed to have originated in China. Using the spatial and temporal human plague records in China from 1850 to 1964, we investigated the association of human plague intensity (plague cases per year) with proxy data on climate condition (specifically an index for dryness/wetness). Our modeling analysis demonstrates that the responses of plague intensity to dry/wet conditions were different in northern and southern China. In northern China, plague intensity generally increased when wetness increased, for both the current and the previous year, except for low intensity during extremely wet conditions in the current year (reflecting a dome-shaped response to current-year dryness/wetness). In southern China, plague intensity generally decreased when wetness increased, except for high intensity during extremely wet conditions of the current year. These opposite effects are likely related to the different climates and rodent communities in the two parts of China: In northern China (arid climate), rodents are expected to respond positively to high precipitation, whereas in southern China (humid climate), high precipitation is likely to have a negative effect. Our results suggest that associations between human plague intensity and precipitation are nonlinear: positive in dry conditions, but negative in wet conditions. PMID:21646523

  20. Nonlinear Force-Free Magnetic Field Modeling of AR 10953: A Critical Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    De Rosa, Marc L.; Schrijver, C. J.; Barnes, G.; Leka, K. D.; Lites, B. W.; Aschwanden, M. J.; Amari, T.; Canou, A.; McTiernan, J. M.; Régnier, S.; Thalmann, J. K.; Valori, G.; Wheatland, M. S.; Wiegelmann, T.; Cheung, M. C. M.; Conlon, P. A.; Fuhrmann, M.; Inhester, B.; Tadesse, T.

    2009-05-01

    Nonlinear force-free field (NLFFF) modeling seeks to provide accurate representations of the structure of the magnetic field above solar active regions, from which estimates of physical quantities of interest (e.g., free energy and helicity) can be made. However, the suite of NLFFF algorithms have failed to arrive at consistent solutions when applied to (thus far, two) cases using the highest-available-resolution vector magnetogram data from Hinode/SOT-SP (in the region of the modeling area of interest) and line-of-sight magnetograms from SOHO/MDI (where vector data were not available). One issue is that NLFFF models require consistent, force-free vector magnetic boundary data, and vector magnetogram data sampling the photosphere do not satisfy this requirement. Consequently, several problems have arisen that are believed to affect such modeling efforts. We use AR 10953 to illustrate these problems, namely: (1) some of the far-reaching, current-carrying connections are exterior to the observational field of view, (2) the solution algorithms do not (yet) incorporate the measurement uncertainties in the vector magnetogram data, and/or (3) a better way is needed to account for the Lorentz forces within the layer between the photosphere and coronal base. In light of these issues, we conclude that it remains difficult to derive useful and significant estimates of physical quantities from NLFFF models.

  1. Progress in the study of nonlinear atmospheric dynamics and predictability of weather and climate in China (2007-2011)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhou, Feifan; Ding, Ruiqiang; Feng, Guolin; Fu, Zuntao; Duan, Wansuo

    2012-09-01

    Recent progress in the study of nonlinear atmospheric dynamics and related predictability of weather and climate in China (2007-2011) are briefly introduced in this article. Major achievements in the study of nonlinear atmospheric dynamics have been classified into two types: (1) progress based on the analysis of solutions of simplified control equations, such as the dynamics of NAO, the optimal precursors for blocking onset, and the behavior of nonlinear waves, and (2) progress based on data analyses, such as the nonlinear analyses of fluctuations and recording-breaking temperature events, the long-range correlation of extreme events, and new methods of detecting abrupt dynamical change. Major achievements in the study of predictability include the following: (1) the application of nonlinear local Lyapunov exponents (NLLE) to weather and climate predictability; (2) the application of condition nonlinear optimal perturbation (CNOP) to the studies of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) predictions, ensemble forecasting, targeted observation, and sensitivity analysis of the ecosystem; and (3) new strategies proposed for predictability studies. The results of these studies have provided greater understanding of the dynamics and nonlinear mechanisms of atmospheric motion, and they represent new ideas for developing numerical models and improving the forecast skill of weather and climate events.

  2. Progress in the Study of Nonlinear Atmospheric Dynamics and Predictability of Weather and Climate in China (2007-2011)

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    ZHOU Feifan; DING Ruiqiang; FENG Guolin; FU Zuntao; DUAN Wansuo

    2012-01-01

    Recent progress in the study of nonlinear atmospheric dynamics and related predictability of weather and climate in China (2007-2011) are briefly introduced in this article.Major achievements in the study of nonlinear atmospheric dynamics have been classified into two types:(1) progress based on the analysis of solutions of simplified control equations,such as the dynamics of NAO,the optimal precursors for blocking onset,and the behavior of nonlinear waves,and (2) progress based on data analyses,such as the nonlinear analyses of fluctuations and recording-breaking temperature events,the long-range correlation of extreme events,and new methods of detecting abrupt dynamical change.Major achievements in the study of predictability include the following:(1) the application of nonlinear local Lyapunov exponents (NLLE) to weather and climate predictability; (2) the application of condition nonlinear optimal perturbation (CNOP) to the studies of El Ni(n)o-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) predictions,ensemble forecasting,targeted observation,and sensitivity analysis of the ecosystem; and (3) new strategies proposed for predictability studies.The results of these studies have provided greater understanding of the dynamics and nonlinear mechanisms of atmospheric motion,and they represent new ideas for developing numerical models and improving the forecast skill of weather and climate events.

  3. Interval Oscillation Criteria for Forced Second-Order Nonlinear Delay Dynamic Equations with Damping and Oscillatory Potential on Time Scales

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hassan A. Agwa

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available We are concerned with the interval oscillation of general type of forced second-order nonlinear dynamic equation with oscillatory potential of the form rtg1xt,xΔtΔ+p(tg2(x(t,xΔ(txΔ(t+q(tf(x(τ(t=e(t, on a time scale T. We will use a unified approach on time scales and employ the Riccati technique to establish some oscillation criteria for this type of equations. Our results are more general and extend the oscillation criteria of Erbe et al. (2010. Also our results unify the oscillation of the forced second-order nonlinear delay differential equation and the forced second-order nonlinear delay difference equation. Finally, we give some examples to illustrate our results.

  4. A transient climate change simulation with greenhouse gas and aerosol forcing: projected climate to the twenty-first century

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Boer, G.J.; Flato, G.; Ramsden, D. [Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis, Victoria, BC (Canada)

    2000-06-01

    The potential climatic consequences of increasing atmospheric greenhouse gas (GHG) concentration and sulfate aerosol loading are investigated for the years 1900 to 2100 based on five simulations with the CCCma coupled climate model. The five simulations comprise a control experiment without change in GHG or aerosol amount, three independent simulations with increasing GHG and aerosol forcing, and a simulation with increasing GHG forcing only. Climate warming accelerates from the present with global mean temperatures simulated to increase by 1.7 C to the year 2050 and by a further 2.7 C by the year 2100. The warming is nonuniform as to hemisphere, season, and underlying surface. Changes in interannual variability of temperature show considerable structure and seasonal dependence. The effect of the comparatively localized negative radiative forcing associated with the aerosol is to retard and reduce the warming by about 0.9 C at 2050 and 1.2 C at 2100. Its primary effect on temperature is to counteract the global pattern of GHG-induced warming and only secondarily to affect local temperatures suggesting that the first order transient climate response of the system is determined by feedback processes and only secondarily by the local pattern of radiative forcing. The warming is accompanied by a more active hydrological cycle with increases in precipitation and evaporation rates that are delayed by comparison with temperature increases. There is an ''El Nino-like'' shift in precipitation and an overall increase in the interannual variability of precipitation. The effect of the aerosol forcing is again primarily to delay and counteract the GHG-induced increase. Decreases in soil moisture are common but regionally dependent and interannual variability changes show considerable structure. (orig.)

  5. Natural forcing of climate during the last millennium: fingerprint of solar variability. Low frequency solar forcing and NAO

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Swingedouw, D. [CERFACS, Toulouse (France); LSCE/IPSL, Gif-sur-Yvette (France); Terray, L.; Cassou, C. [CERFACS, Toulouse (France); Voldoire, A.; Salas-Melia, D. [CNRM, Toulouse (France); Servonnat, J. [LSCE/IPSL, Gif-sur-Yvette (France)

    2011-04-15

    The variability of the climate during the last millennium is partly forced by changes in total solar irradiance (TSI). Nevertheless, the amplitude of these TSI changes is very small so that recent reconstruction data suggest that low frequency variations in the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and in the thermohaline circulation may have amplified, in the North Atlantic sector and mostly in winter, the radiative changes due to TSI variations. In this study we use a state-of-the-art climate model to simulate the last millennium. We find that modelled variations of surface temperature in the Northern Hemisphere are coherent with existing reconstructions. Moreover, in the model, the low frequency variability of this mean hemispheric temperature is found to be correlated at 0.74 with the solar forcing for the period 1001-1860. Then, we focus on the regional climatic fingerprint of solar forcing in winter and find a significant relationship between the low frequency TSI forcing and the NAO with a time lag of more than 40 years for the response of the NAO. Such a lag is larger than the around 20-year lag suggested in other studies. We argue that this lag is due, in the model, to a northward shift of the tropical atmospheric convection in the Pacific Ocean, which is maximum more than four decades after the solar forcing increase. This shift then forces a positive NAO through an atmospheric wave connection related to the jet-stream wave guide. The shift of the tropical convection is due to the persistence of anomalous warm SST forcing the anomalous precipitation, associated with the advection of warm SST by the North Pacific subtropical gyre in a few decades. Finally, we analyse the response of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation to solar forcing and find that the former is weakened when the latter increases. Changes in wind stress, notably due to the NAO, modify the barotropic streamfunction in the Atlantic 50 years after solar variations. This implies a wind

  6. On multi-fingerprint detection and attribution of greenhouse gas- and aerosol forced climate change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hegerl, G.C. [Max-Planck-Institut fuer Meteorologie, Hamburg (Germany); Hasselmann, K. [Max-Planck-Institut fuer Meteorologie, Hamburg (Germany); Cubasch, U. [Deutsches Klimarechenzentrum (DKRZ), Hamburg (Germany); Mitchell, J.F.B. [Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research, Bracknell (United Kingdom). Meteorological Office; Roeckner, E. [Max-Planck-Institut fuer Meteorologie, Hamburg (Germany); Voss, R. [Deutsches Klimarechenzentrum (DKRZ), Hamburg (Germany); Waszkewitz, J. [Deutsches Klimarechenzentrum (DKRZ), Hamburg (Germany)

    1996-07-01

    A multi-fingerprint analysis is applied to the detection and attribution of anthropogenic climate change. While a single fingerprint, as applied in a previous paper by Hegerl et al. (1996), is optimal for detecting a significant climate change, the simultaneous use of several fingerprints allows one to investigate additionally the consistency between observations and model predicted climate change signals for competing candidate forcing mechanisms. Thus the multi-fingerprint method is a particularly useful technique for attributing an observed climate change to a proposed cause. Different model-predicted climate change signals are derived from three global warming simulations for the period 1880 to 2049. In one simulation, the forcing was by greenhouse gases only, while in the remaining two simulations the influence of aerosols was also included. The two dominant climate change signals derived from these simulations are optimized statistically by weighting the model-predicted climate change pattern towards low-noise directions. These optimized fingerprints are then applied to observed near surface temperature trends. The space-time structure of natural climate variability (needed to determine the signal-to-noise ratio) is estimated from several multi-century control simulations with different CGCMs and from instrumental data over the last 134 years. (orig.)

  7. Radiation-reaction-force-induced nonlinear mixing of Raman sidebands of an ultraintense laser pulse in a plasma.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kumar, Naveen; Hatsagortsyan, Karen Z; Keitel, Christoph H

    2013-09-06

    Stimulated Raman scattering of an ultraintense laser pulse in plasmas is studied by perturbatively including the leading order term of the Landau-Lifshitz radiation reaction force in the equation of motion for plasma electrons. In this approximation, the radiation reaction force causes a phase shift in nonlinear current densities that drive the two Raman sidebands (anti-Stokes and Stokes waves), manifesting itself into the nonlinear mixing of two sidebands. This mixing results in a strong enhancement in the growth of the forward Raman scattering instability.

  8. Multivariate nonlinear regression analysis of trajectory tracking performance using force reflecting joystick in chronic stroke-induced hemiparesis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feng, Xin; Winters, Jack M

    2011-01-01

    Individualizing a neurorehabilitation training protocol requires understanding the performance of subjects with various capabilities under different task settings. We use multivariate regression to evaluate the performance of subjects with stroke-induced hemiparesis in trajectory tracking tasks using a force-reflecting joystick. A nonlinear effect was consistently shown in both dimensions of force field strength and impairment level for selected kinematic performance measures, with greatest sensitivity at lower force fields. This suggests that the form of a force field may play a different "role" for subjects with various impairment levels, and confirms that to achieve optimized therapeutic benefit, it is necessary to personalize interfaces.

  9. A new reliable analytical solution for strongly nonlinear oscillator with cubic and harmonic restoring force

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Md. Alal Hosen

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available In the present paper, a complicated strongly nonlinear oscillator with cubic and harmonic restoring force, has been analysed and solved completely by harmonic balance method (HBM. Investigating analytically such kinds of oscillator is very difficult task and cumbersome. In this study, the offered technique gives desired results and to avoid numerical complexity. An excellent agreement was found between approximate and numerical solutions, which prove that HBM is very efficient and produces high accuracy results. It is remarkably important that, second-order approximate results are almost same with exact solutions. The advantage of this method is its simple procedure and applicable for many other oscillatory problems arising in science and engineering.

  10. First use of synoptic vector magnetograms for global nonlinear force free coronal magnetic field models

    CERN Document Server

    Tadesse, Tilaye; Gosain, S; MacNeice, P; Pevtsov, Alexei A

    2013-01-01

    The magnetic field permeating the solar atmosphere is generally thought to provide the energy for much of the activity seen in the solar corona, such as flares, coronal mass ejections (CMEs), etc. To overcome the unavailability of coronal magnetic field measurements, photospheric magnetic field vector data can be used to reconstruct the coronal field. Currently there are several modelling techniques being used to calculate three-dimension of the field lines into the solar atmosphere. For the first time, synoptic maps of photospheric vector magnetic field synthesized from Vector Spectromagnetograph (VSM) on Synoptic Optical Long-term Investigations of the Sun (SOLIS) are used to model the coronal magnetic field and estimate free magnetic energy in the global scale. The free energy (i.e., the energy in excess of the potential field energy) is one of the main indicators used in space weather forecasts to predict the eruptivity of active regions. We solve the nonlinear force-free field equations using optimizatio...

  11. Forced convective heat transfer in boundary layer flow of Sisko fluid over a nonlinear stretching sheet.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Munir, Asif; Shahzad, Azeem; Khan, Masood

    2014-01-01

    The major focus of this article is to analyze the forced convective heat transfer in a steady boundary layer flow of Sisko fluid over a nonlinear stretching sheet. Two cases are studied, namely (i) the sheet with variable temperature (PST case) and (ii) the sheet with variable heat flux (PHF case). The heat transfer aspects are investigated for both integer and non-integer values of the power-law index. The governing partial differential equations are reduced to a system of nonlinear ordinary differential equations using appropriate similarity variables and solved numerically. The numerical results are obtained by the shooting method using adaptive Runge Kutta method with Broyden's method in the domain[Formula: see text]. The numerical results for the temperature field are found to be strongly dependent upon the power-law index, stretching parameter, wall temperature parameter, material parameter of the Sisko fluid and Prandtl number. In addition, the local Nusselt number versus wall temperature parameter is also graphed and tabulated for different values of pertaining parameters. Further, numerical results are validated by comparison with exact solutions as well as previously published results in the literature.

  12. Forced Convective Heat Transfer in Boundary Layer Flow of Sisko Fluid over a Nonlinear Stretching Sheet

    Science.gov (United States)

    Munir, Asif; Shahzad, Azeem; Khan, Masood

    2014-01-01

    The major focus of this article is to analyze the forced convective heat transfer in a steady boundary layer flow of Sisko fluid over a nonlinear stretching sheet. Two cases are studied, namely (i) the sheet with variable temperature (PST case) and (ii) the sheet with variable heat flux (PHF case). The heat transfer aspects are investigated for both integer and non-integer values of the power-law index. The governing partial differential equations are reduced to a system of nonlinear ordinary differential equations using appropriate similarity variables and solved numerically. The numerical results are obtained by the shooting method using adaptive Runge Kutta method with Broyden’s method in the domain. The numerical results for the temperature field are found to be strongly dependent upon the power-law index, stretching parameter, wall temperature parameter, material parameter of the Sisko fluid and Prandtl number. In addition, the local Nusselt number versus wall temperature parameter is also graphed and tabulated for different values of pertaining parameters. Further, numerical results are validated by comparison with exact solutions as well as previously published results in the literature. PMID:24949738

  13. Direct Radiative Forcing and Climatic Effects of Aerosols over East Asia by RegCM3

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    JU Li-Xia; HAN Zhi-Wei

    2011-01-01

    The authors used a high-resolution regional climate model (RegCM3) coupled with a chemistry/ aerosol module to simulate East Asian climate in 2006 and to test the climatic impacts of aerosols on regional- scale climate. The direct radiative forcing and climatic effects of aerosols (dust, sulfate, black carbon, and organic carbon) were discussed. The results indicated that aerosols generally produced negative radiative forcing at the top-of-the-atmosphere (TOA) over most areas of East Asia. The radiative forcing induced by aerosols exhibited significant seasonal and regional variations, with the strongest forcing occurring in summer. The aerosol feed- backs on surface air temperature and precipitation were clear. Surface cooling dominated features over the East Asian continental areas, which varied in the approximate range of-0.5 to -2℃ with the maximum up to -3℃ in summer over the deserts of West China. The aerosols induced complicated variations of precipitation. Except in summer, the rainfall generally varied in the range of-1 to 1 mm d^-1 over most areas of China.

  14. First Use of Synoptic Vector Magnetograms for Global Nonlinear, Force-Free Coronal Magnetic Field Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tadesse, T.; Wiegelmann, T.; Gosain, S.; MacNeice, P.; Pevtsov, A. A.

    2014-01-01

    Context. The magnetic field permeating the solar atmosphere is generally thought to provide the energy for much of the activity seen in the solar corona, such as flares, coronal mass ejections (CMEs), etc. To overcome the unavailability of coronal magnetic field measurements, photospheric magnetic field vector data can be used to reconstruct the coronal field. Currently, there are several modelling techniques being used to calculate three-dimensional field lines into the solar atmosphere. Aims. For the first time, synoptic maps of a photospheric-vector magnetic field synthesized from the vector spectromagnetograph (VSM) on Synoptic Optical Long-term Investigations of the Sun (SOLIS) are used to model the coronal magnetic field and estimate free magnetic energy in the global scale. The free energy (i.e., the energy in excess of the potential field energy) is one of the main indicators used in space weather forecasts to predict the eruptivity of active regions. Methods. We solve the nonlinear force-free field equations using an optimization principle in spherical geometry. The resulting threedimensional magnetic fields are used to estimate the magnetic free energy content E(sub free) = E(sub nlfff) - E(sub pot), which is the difference of the magnetic energies between the nonpotential field and the potential field in the global solar corona. For comparison, we overlay the extrapolated magnetic field lines with the extreme ultraviolet (EUV) observations by the atmospheric imaging assembly (AIA) on board the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO). Results. For a single Carrington rotation 2121, we find that the global nonlinear force-free field (NLFFF) magnetic energy density is 10.3% higher than the potential one. Most of this free energy is located in active regions.

  15. Full-disk nonlinear force-free field extrapolation of SDO/HMI and SOLIS/VSM magnetograms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tadesse, T.; Wiegelmann, T.; Inhester, B.; MacNeice, P.; Pevtsov, A.; Sun, X.

    2013-02-01

    Context. The magnetic field configuration is essential for understanding solar explosive phenomena, such as flares and coronal mass ejections. To overcome the unavailability of coronal magnetic field measurements, photospheric magnetic field vector data can be used to reconstruct the coronal field. Two complications of this approach are that the measured photospheric magnetic field is not force-free and that one has to apply a preprocessing routine to achieve boundary conditions suitable for the force-free modeling. Furthermore the nonlinear force-free extrapolation code should take uncertainties into account in the photospheric field data. They occur due to noise, incomplete inversions, or azimuth ambiguity-removing techniques. Aims: Extrapolation codes in Cartesian geometry for modeling the magnetic field in the corona do not take the curvature of the Sun's surface into account and can only be applied to relatively small areas, e.g., a single active region. Here we apply a method for nonlinear force-free coronal magnetic field modeling and preprocessing of photospheric vector magnetograms in spherical geometry using the optimization procedure to full disk vector magnetograms. We compare the analysis of the photospheric magnetic field and subsequent force-free modeling based on full-disk vector maps from Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager (HMI) onboard the solar dynamics observatory (SDO) and Vector Spectromagnetograph (VSM) of the Synoptic Optical Long-term Investigations of the Sun (SOLIS). Methods: We used HMI and VSM photospheric magnetic field measurements to model the force-free coronal field above multiple solar active regions, assuming magnetic forces to dominate. We solved the nonlinear force-free field equations by minimizing a functional in spherical coordinates over a full disk and excluding the poles. After searching for the optimum modeling parameters for the particular data sets, we compared the resulting nonlinear force-free model fields. We compared

  16. Glacial Thermohaline Circulation and Climate: Forcing from the North or South?

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2006-01-01

    Based on the evidence available from both observations and model simulations, the author proposes a view that may provide a unified interpretation of the North Atlantic thermohaline variability. Because of the slow response time of the Southern Ocean (millennia) and the relatively faster response time of the North Atlantic (centuries), the North Atlantic thermohaline circulation is controlled predominantly by the climate forcing over the Southern Ocean at the long glacial cycle timescales, but by the North Atlantic climate forcing at the short millennial timescales.

  17. Climate forcing reconstructions for use in PMIP simulations of the last millennium (v1.0

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. A. Schmidt

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Simulations of climate over the Last Millennium (850–1850 CE have been incorporated into the third phase of the Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project (PMIP3. The drivers of climate over this period are chiefly orbital, solar, volcanic, changes in land use/land cover and some variation in greenhouse gas levels. While some of these effects can be easily defined, the reconstructions of solar, volcanic and land use-related forcing are more uncertain. We describe here the approach taken in defining the scenarios used in PMIP3, document the forcing reconstructions and discuss likely implications.

  18. Recent advances in understanding secondary organic aerosol: Implications for global climate forcing: Advances in Secondary Organic Aerosol

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Shrivastava, Manish [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland Washington USA; Cappa, Christopher D. [Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of California, Davis California USA; Fan, Jiwen [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland Washington USA; Goldstein, Allen H. [Department of Environmental Science, Policy and Management and Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of California, Berkeley California USA; Guenther, Alex B. [Department of Earth System Science, University of California, Irvine California USA; Jimenez, Jose L. [Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences and Department of Chemistry and Biochemistry, University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder Colorado USA; Kuang, Chongai [Brookhaven National Laboratory, Upton New York USA; Laskin, Alexander [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland Washington USA; Martin, Scot T. [School of Engineering and Applied Sciences and Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences, Harvard University, Cambridge Massachusetts USA; Ng, Nga Lee [School of Chemical and Biomolecular Engineering and School of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta Georgia USA; Petaja, Tuukka [Department of Physics, University of Helsinki, Helsinki Finland; Pierce, Jeffrey R. [Department of Atmospheric Science, Colorado State University, Fort Collins Colorado USA; Rasch, Philip J. [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland Washington USA; Roldin, Pontus [Department of Physics, Lund University, Lund Sweden; Seinfeld, John H. [Division of Chemistry and Chemical Engineering, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena California USA; Shilling, John [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland Washington USA; Smith, James N. [Department of Earth System Science, University of California, Irvine California USA; Thornton, Joel A. [Department of Atmospheric Sciences, University of Washington, Seattle Washington USA; Volkamer, Rainer [Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences and Department of Chemistry and Biochemistry, University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder Colorado USA; Wang, Jian [Brookhaven National Laboratory, Upton New York USA; Worsnop, Douglas R. [Aerodyne Research, Inc., Billerica Massachusetts USA; Zaveri, Rahul A. [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland Washington USA; Zelenyuk, Alla [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland Washington USA; Zhang, Qi [Department of Environmental Toxicology, University of California, Davis California USA

    2017-06-01

    Anthropogenic emissions and land-use changes have modified atmospheric aerosol concentrations and size distributions over time. Understanding pre-industrial conditions and changes in organic aerosol due to anthropogenic activities is important because these features 1) influence estimates of aerosol radiative forcing and 2) can confound estimates of the historical response of climate to increases in greenhouse gases (e.g. the ‘climate sensitivity’). Secondary organic aerosol (SOA), formed in the atmosphere by oxidation of organic gases, represents a major fraction of global submicron-sized atmospheric organic aerosol. Over the past decade, significant advances in understanding SOA properties and formation mechanisms have occurred through a combination of laboratory and field measurements, yet current climate models typically do not comprehensively include all important SOA-relevant processes. Therefore, major gaps exist at present between current measurement-based knowledge on the one hand and model implementation of organic aerosols on the other. The critical review herein summarizes some of the important developments in understanding SOA formation that could potentially have large impacts on our understanding of aerosol radiative forcing and climate. We highlight the importance of some recently discovered processes and properties that influence the growth of SOA particles to sizes relevant for clouds and radiative forcing, including: formation of extremely low-volatility organics in the gas-phase; isoprene epoxydiols (IEPOX) multi-phase chemistry; particle-phase oligomerization; and physical properties such as viscosity. In addition, this review also highlights some of the important processes that involve interactions between natural biogenic emissions and anthropogenic emissions, such as the role of sulfate and oxides of nitrogen (NOx) on SOA formation from biogenic volatile organic compounds. Studies that relate the observed evolution of organic aerosol

  19. Nonlinearity of ocean heat uptake during warming and cooling in the FAMOUS climate model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bouttes, N.; Good, P.; Gregory, J. M.; Lowe, J. A.

    2015-04-01

    Atmospheric CO2 concentration is expected to continue rising in the coming decades, but natural or artificial processes may eventually reduce it. We show that, in the FAMOUS atmosphere-ocean general circulation model, the reduction of ocean heat content as radiative forcing decreases is greater than would be expected from a linear model simulation of the response to the applied forcings. We relate this effect to the behavior of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC): the ocean cools more efficiently with a strong AMOC. The AMOC weakens as CO2 rises, then strengthens as CO2 declines, but temporarily overshoots its original strength. This nonlinearity comes mainly from the accumulated advection of salt into the North Atlantic, which gives the system a longer memory. This implies that changes observed in response to different CO2 scenarios or from different initial states, such as from past changes, may not be a reliable basis for making projections.

  20. Nonlinearly combined impacts of initial perturbation from human activities and parameter perturbation from climate change on the grassland ecosystem

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. Sun

    2011-11-01

    Full Text Available Human activities and climate change are important factors that affect grassland ecosystems. A new optimization approach, the approach of conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation (CNOP related to initial and parameter perturbations, is employed to explore the nonlinearly combined impacts of human activities and climate change on a grassland ecosystem using a theoretical grassland model. In our study, it is assumed that the initial perturbations and parameter perturbations are regarded as human activities and climate change, respectively. Numerical results indicate that the climate changes causing the maximum effect in the grassland ecosystem are different under disparate intensities of human activities. This implies the pattern of climate change is very critical to the maintenance or degradation of grassland ecosystem in light of high intensity of human activities and that the grassland ecosystem should be rationally managed when the moisture index decreases. The grassland ecosystem influenced by the nonlinear combination of human activities and climate change undergoes abrupt change, while the grassland ecosystem affected by other types of human activities and climate change fails to show the abrupt change under a certain range of perturbations with the theoretical model. The further numerical analyses also indicate that the growth of living biomass and the evaporation from soil surface shaded by the wilted biomass may be crucial factors contributing to the abrupt change of the grassland equilibrium state within the theoretical model.

  1. Influence of external climate forcing on coastal upwelling systems analysed in ensemble of past millennium climate simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tim, Nele; Zorita, Eduardo; Hünicke, Birgit; Yi, Xin; Emeis, Kay

    2016-04-01

    Eastern Boundary Upwelling Systems are highly productive coastal ocean areas where nutrient rich, cold water upwells by the action of favorable winds. Observations over the 20th century and ocean sediment records, which may be indicative of upwelling, display an intensification due to stronger external climate forcing, such as increasing greenhouse gas concentrations or changes in solar irradiance. This intensification is compatible with the hypothesis put forward by Bakun (1990) that a stronger external radiative forcing should lead to a more intense coastal upwelling. Here, we analyze ensemble of simulations covering the past millennium with the aim of identifying and quantifying the role of external climate forcing on upwelling in the major Eastern Boundary Upwelling System. We analyse the decadal variability and centennial trends of upwelling in ensemble of simulations with the global climate model MPI-ESM covering the past millennium, the last 150 years and the next 100 years. The future simulations were driven by three IPCC scenarios of concentrations of anthropogenic greenhouse gases, RCP2.5, RCP4.5 and RCP 8.5. For the past millennium and the last 150 years, coastal upwelling does not show any imprint of external forcing. This result indicates that chaotic internal variability has dominated upwelling intensity in major upwelling regions over the last thousand years and even since industrialisation up to present. For the 21st century, all ensemble members show a consistent and significant intensification of upwelling in the strongest scenario RCP8.5 for the Benguela upwelling region, consistent and significant weakening for Morocco and California, and no significant change for the Peruvian upwelling. Weaker scenarios do not produce consistent long-term trends that are replicated in all ensemble members. The results are confirmed by analysing another ensemble of past millennium simulations with the model CESM-CAM5 (Community Earth System Model

  2. Nonlinear gravitational self-force. I. Field outside a small body

    CERN Document Server

    Pound, Adam

    2012-01-01

    A small extended body moving through an external spacetime $g_{\\alpha\\beta}$ creates a metric perturbation $h_{\\alpha\\beta}$, which forces the body away from geodesic motion in $g_{\\alpha\\beta}$. The foundations of this effect, called the gravitational self-force, are now well established, but concrete results have mostly been limited to linear order. Accurately modeling the dynamics of compact binaries requires proceeding to nonlinear orders. To that end, I show how to obtain the metric perturbation outside the body at all orders in a class of generalized wave gauges. In a small buffer region surrounding the body, the form of the perturbation can be found analytically as an expansion for small distances $r$ from a representative worldline. Given only a specification of the body's multipole moments, the field obtained in the buffer region suffices to find the metric everywhere outside the body via a numerical puncture scheme. Following this procedure at first and second order, I calculate the field in the buf...

  3. The Influence of Spatial Resolution on Nonlinear Force-Free Modeling

    CERN Document Server

    DeRosa, M L; Leka, K D; Barnes, G; Amari, T; Canou, A; Gilchrist, S A; Thalmann, J K; Valori, G; Wiegelmann, T; Schrijver, C J; Malanushenko, A; Sun, X; Régnier, S

    2015-01-01

    The nonlinear force-free field (NLFFF) model is often used to describe the solar coronal magnetic field, however a series of earlier studies revealed difficulties in the numerical solution of the model in application to photospheric boundary data. We investigate the sensitivity of the modeling to the spatial resolution of the boundary data, by applying multiple codes that numerically solve the NLFFF model to a sequence of vector magnetogram data at different resolutions, prepared from a single Hinode/SOT-SP scan of NOAA Active Region 10978 on 2007 December 13. We analyze the resulting energies and relative magnetic helicities, employ a Helmholtz decomposition to characterize divergence errors, and quantify changes made by the codes to the vector magnetogram boundary data in order to be compatible with the force-free model. This study shows that NLFFF modeling results depend quantitatively on the spatial resolution of the input boundary data, and that using more highly resolved boundary data yields more self-c...

  4. Nonlinear Force-Free Magnetic Field Modeling of the Solar Corona: A Critical Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    De Rosa, M. L.; Schrijver, C. J.; Barnes, G.; Leka, K. D.; Lites, B. W.; Aschwanden, M. J.; McTiernan, J. M.; Régnier, S.; Thalmann, J.; Valori, G.; Wheatland, M. S.; Wiegelmann, T.; Cheung, M.; Conlon, P. A.; Fuhrmann, M.; Inhester, B.; Tadesse, T.

    2008-12-01

    Nonlinear force-free field (NLFFF) modeling promises to provide accurate representations of the structure of the magnetic field above solar active regions, from which estimates of physical quantities of interest (e.g., free energy and helicity) can be made. However, the suite of NLFFF algorithms have so far failed to arrive at consistent solutions when applied to cases using the highest-available-resolution vector magnetogram data from Hinode/SOT-SP (in the region of the modeling area of interest) and line-of-sight magnetograms from SOHO/MDI (where vector data were not been available). It is our view that the lack of robust results indicates an endemic problem with the NLFFF modeling process, and that this process will likely continue to fail until (1) more of the far-reaching, current-carrying connections are within the observational field of view, (2) the solution algorithms incorporate the measurement uncertainties in the vector magnetogram data, and/or (3) a better way is found to account for the Lorentz forces within the layer between the photosphere and coronal base. In light of these issues, we conclude that it remains difficult to derive useful and significant estimates of physical quantities from NLFFF models.

  5. Local sources of global climate forcing from different categories of land use activities

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. S. Ward

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available Identifying and quantifying the sources of climate impacts from land use and land cover change (LULCC is necessary to optimize policies regarding LULCC for climate change mitigation. These climate impacts are typically defined relative to emissions of CO2, or sometimes emissions of other long-lived greenhouse gases. Here we use previously published estimates of the radiative forcing (RF of LULCC that include the short-lived forcing agents O3 and aerosols, in addition to long-lived greenhouse gases and land albedo change, for six projections of LULCC as a metric for quantifying climate impacts. The LULCC RF is attributed to three categories of LULCC activities: direct modifications to land cover, agriculture, and wildfire response, and sources of the forcing are ascribed to individual grid points for each sector. Results for the year 2010 show substantial positive forcings from the direct modifications and agriculture sectors, particularly from India, China, and southeast Asia, and a smaller magnitude negative forcing response from wildfires. The RF from direct modifications, mainly deforestation activities, exhibits a large range in future outcomes for the standard future scenarios implying that these activities, and not agricultural emissions (which lead to more consistent RFs between scenarios, will drive the LULCC RF in the future. We show that future forest area change can be used as a predictor of the future RF from direct modification activities, especially in the tropics, suggesting that deforestation-prevention policies that value land based on its C-content may be particularly effective at mitigating climate forcing originating in the tropics from this sector. Although, the response of wildfire RF to tropical land cover changes is not as easily scalable and yet imposes a non-trivial feedback onto the total LULCC RF.

  6. Predicting path from undulations for C. elegans using linear and nonlinear resistive force theory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keaveny, Eric E.; Brown, André E. X.

    2017-04-01

    A basic issue in the physics of behaviour is the mechanical relationship between an animal and its surroundings. The model nematode C. elegans provides an excellent platform to explore this relationship due to its anatomical simplicity. Nonetheless, the physics of nematode crawling, in which the worm undulates its body to move on a wet surface, is not completely understood and the mathematical models often used to describe this phenomenon are empirical. We confirm that linear resistive force theory, one such empirical model, is effective at predicting a worm’s path from its sequence of body postures for forward crawling, reversing, and turning and for a broad range of different behavioural phenotypes observed in mutant worms. Worms recently isolated from the wild have a higher effective drag anisotropy than the laboratory-adapted strain N2 and most mutant strains. This means the wild isolates crawl with less surface slip, perhaps reflecting more efficient gaits. The drag anisotropies required to fit the observed locomotion data (70  ±  28 for the wild isolates) are significantly larger than the values measured by directly dragging worms along agar surfaces (3–10 in Rabets et al (2014 Biophys. J. 107 1980–7)). A proposed nonlinear extension of the resistive force theory model also provides accurate predictions, but does not resolve the discrepancy between the parameters required to achieve good path prediction and the experimentally measured parameters. We confirm that linear resistive force theory provides a good effective model of worm crawling that can be used in applications such as whole-animal simulations and advanced tracking algorithms, but that the nature of the physical interaction between worms and their most commonly studied laboratory substrate remains unresolved.

  7. Fitting aerodynamic forces in the Laplace domain: An application of a nonlinear nongradient technique to multilevel constrained optimization

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tiffany, S. H.; Adams, W. M., Jr.

    1984-01-01

    A technique which employs both linear and nonlinear methods in a multilevel optimization structure to best approximate generalized unsteady aerodynamic forces for arbitrary motion is described. Optimum selection of free parameters is made in a rational function approximation of the aerodynamic forces in the Laplace domain such that a best fit is obtained, in a least squares sense, to tabular data for purely oscillatory motion. The multilevel structure and the corresponding formulation of the objective models are presented which separate the reduction of the fit error into linear and nonlinear problems, thus enabling the use of linear methods where practical. Certain equality and inequality constraints that may be imposed are identified; a brief description of the nongradient, nonlinear optimizer which is used is given; and results which illustrate application of the method are presented.

  8. Cloud forming properties of ambient aerosol in the Netherlands and resultant shortwave radiative forcing of climate

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Khlystov, A.

    1998-01-01

    This thesis discusses properties of ambient aerosols in the Netherlands which are controlling the magnitude of the local aerosol radiative forcing. Anthropogenic aerosols influence climate by changing the radiative transfer through the atmosphere via two effects, one is direct and a second

  9. A model perspective on orbital forcing of monsoons and Mediterranean climate using EC-Earth

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bosmans, J.H.C.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/344765490

    2014-01-01

    This thesis focuses on orbitally forced changes of monsoons and Mediterranean climate. Changes in the shape of the Earths orbit around the Sun and its rotational axis govern the seasonal and latitudinal distribution of incoming solar radiation on time scales of thousands to millions of years. The

  10. Carbon cycle and climate effects of forcing from fire-emitted aerosols

    Science.gov (United States)

    Landry, Jean-Sébastien; Partanen, Antti-Ilari; Damon Matthews, H.

    2017-02-01

    Aerosols emitted by landscape fires affect many climatic processes. Here, we combined an aerosol–climate model and a coupled climate–carbon model to study the carbon cycle and climate effects caused by fire-emitted aerosols (FEA) forcing at the top of the atmosphere and at the surface. This forcing (‘best guess’ present-day values of ‑0.10 and ‑1.3 W m‑2 at the top of the atmosphere and surface, respectively) had a predominant cooling influence that altered regional land carbon stocks on decadal timescales by modifying vegetation productivity and soil–litter decomposition. Changes in regional land and ocean carbon stocks became much stronger for FEA forcing acting on multi-century timescales; this occurred because carbon stocks responded to the forcing itself on such timescales and also due to gradual effects on the climate (e.g. through increased sea ice cover) that further affected the carbon cycle. Carbon increases and decreases in different regions partly offset each other, so that absolute changes in global land, atmosphere, and ocean stocks were all Asia, respectively. This suggests the potential for remote carbon cycle effects from regions emitting large amounts of fire aerosols.

  11. A model perspective on orbital forcing of monsoons and Mediterranean climate using EC-Earth

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bosmans, J.H.C.

    2014-01-01

    This thesis focuses on orbitally forced changes of monsoons and Mediterranean climate. Changes in the shape of the Earths orbit around the Sun and its rotational axis govern the seasonal and latitudinal distribution of incoming solar radiation on time scales of thousands to millions of years. The th

  12. Cloud forming properties of ambient aerosol in the Netherlands and resultant shortwave radiative forcing of climate.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Khlystov, A.

    1998-01-01

    This thesis discusses properties of ambient aerosols in the Netherlands which are controlling the magnitude of the local aerosol radiative forcing. Anthropogenic aerosols influence climate by changing the radiative transfer through the atmosphere via two effects, one is direct and a second is indire

  13. Modeling Climate Responses to Spectral Solar Forcing on Centennial and Decadal Time Scales

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wen, G.; Cahalan, R.; Rind, D.; Jonas, J.; Pilewskie, P.; Harder, J.

    2012-01-01

    We report a series of experiments to explore clima responses to two types of solar spectral forcing on decadal and centennial time scales - one based on prior reconstructions, and another implied by recent observations from the SORCE (Solar Radiation and Climate Experiment) SIM (Spectral 1rradiance Monitor). We apply these forcings to the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) Global/Middle Atmosphere Model (GCMAM). that couples atmosphere with ocean, and has a model top near the mesopause, allowing us to examine the full response to the two solar forcing scenarios. We show different climate responses to the two solar forCing scenarios on decadal time scales and also trends on centennial time scales. Differences between solar maximum and solar minimum conditions are highlighted, including impacts of the time lagged reSponse of the lower atmosphere and ocean. This contrasts with studies that assume separate equilibrium conditions at solar maximum and minimum. We discuss model feedback mechanisms involved in the solar forced climate variations.

  14. Nonlinear Dynamics and Chaos Applications for Prediction of Weather and Climate

    CERN Document Server

    Pethkar, J S

    2001-01-01

    Turbulence, namely, irregular fluctuations in space and time characterize fluid flows in general and atmospheric flows in particular.The irregular,i.e., nonlinear space-time fluctuations on all scales contribute to the unpredictable nature of both short-term weather and long-term climate.It is of importance to quantify the total pattern of fluctuations for predictability studies. The power spectra of temporal fluctuations are broadband and exhibit inverse power law form with different slopes for different scale ranges. Inverse power-law form for power spectra implies scaling (self similarity) for the scale range over which the slope is constant. Atmospheric flows therefore exhibit multiple scaling or multifractal structure.Standard meteorological theory cannot explain satisfactorily the observed multifractal structure of atmospheric flows.Selfsimilar spatial pattern implies long-range spatial correlations. Atmospheric flows therefore exhibit long-range spatiotemporal correlations, namely,self-organized critic...

  15. Effects of different regional climate model resolution and forcing scales on projected hydrologic changes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mendoza, Pablo A.; Mizukami, Naoki; Ikeda, Kyoko; Clark, Martyn P.; Gutmann, Ethan D.; Arnold, Jeffrey R.; Brekke, Levi D.; Rajagopalan, Balaji

    2016-10-01

    We examine the effects of regional climate model (RCM) horizontal resolution and forcing scaling (i.e., spatial aggregation of meteorological datasets) on the portrayal of climate change impacts. Specifically, we assess how the above decisions affect: (i) historical simulation of signature measures of hydrologic behavior, and (ii) projected changes in terms of annual water balance and hydrologic signature measures. To this end, we conduct our study in three catchments located in the headwaters of the Colorado River basin. Meteorological forcings for current and a future climate projection are obtained at three spatial resolutions (4-, 12- and 36-km) from dynamical downscaling with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) regional climate model, and hydrologic changes are computed using four different hydrologic model structures. These projected changes are compared to those obtained from running hydrologic simulations with current and future 4-km WRF climate outputs re-scaled to 12- and 36-km. The results show that the horizontal resolution of WRF simulations heavily affects basin-averaged precipitation amounts, propagating into large differences in simulated signature measures across model structures. The implications of re-scaled forcing datasets on historical performance were primarily observed on simulated runoff seasonality. We also found that the effects of WRF grid resolution on projected changes in mean annual runoff and evapotranspiration may be larger than the effects of hydrologic model choice, which surpasses the effects from re-scaled forcings. Scaling effects on projected variations in hydrologic signature measures were found to be generally smaller than those coming from WRF resolution; however, forcing aggregation in many cases reversed the direction of projected changes in hydrologic behavior.

  16. Influence of external forcings on abrupt millennial-scale climate changes: a statistical modelling study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mitsui, Takahito; Crucifix, Michel

    2016-07-01

    The last glacial period was punctuated by a series of abrupt climate shifts, the so-called Dansgaard-Oeschger (DO) events. The frequency of DO events varied in time, supposedly because of changes in background climate conditions. Here, the influence of external forcings on DO events is investigated with statistical modelling. We assume two types of simple stochastic dynamical systems models (double-well potential-type and oscillator-type), forced by the northern hemisphere summer insolation change and/or the global ice volume change. The model parameters are estimated by using the maximum likelihood method with the NGRIP Ca^{2+} record. The stochastic oscillator model with at least the ice volume forcing reproduces well the sample autocorrelation function of the record and the frequency changes of warming transitions in the last glacial period across MISs 2, 3, and 4. The model performance is improved with the additional insolation forcing. The BIC scores also suggest that the ice volume forcing is relatively more important than the insolation forcing, though the strength of evidence depends on the model assumption. Finally, we simulate the average number of warming transitions in the past four glacial periods, assuming the model can be extended beyond the last glacial, and compare the result with an Iberian margin sea-surface temperature (SST) record (Martrat et al. in Science 317(5837): 502-507, 2007). The simulation result supports the previous observation that abrupt millennial-scale climate changes in the penultimate glacial (MIS 6) are less frequent than in the last glacial (MISs 2-4). On the other hand, it suggests that the number of abrupt millennial-scale climate changes in older glacial periods (MISs 6, 8, and 10) might be larger than inferred from the SST record.

  17. Northern Hemisphere forcing of Southern Hemisphere climate during the last deglaciation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    He, Feng; Shakun, Jeremy D; Clark, Peter U; Carlson, Anders E; Liu, Zhengyu; Otto-Bliesner, Bette L; Kutzbach, John E

    2013-02-07

    According to the Milankovitch theory, changes in summer insolation in the high-latitude Northern Hemisphere caused glacial cycles through their impact on ice-sheet mass balance. Statistical analyses of long climate records supported this theory, but they also posed a substantial challenge by showing that changes in Southern Hemisphere climate were in phase with or led those in the north. Although an orbitally forced Northern Hemisphere signal may have been transmitted to the Southern Hemisphere, insolation forcing can also directly influence local Southern Hemisphere climate, potentially intensified by sea-ice feedback, suggesting that the hemispheres may have responded independently to different aspects of orbital forcing. Signal processing of climate records cannot distinguish between these conditions, however, because the proposed insolation forcings share essentially identical variability. Here we use transient simulations with a coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model to identify the impacts of forcing from changes in orbits, atmospheric CO(2) concentration, ice sheets and the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) on hemispheric temperatures during the first half of the last deglaciation (22-14.3 kyr BP). Although based on a single model, our transient simulation with only orbital changes supports the Milankovitch theory in showing that the last deglaciation was initiated by rising insolation during spring and summer in the mid-latitude to high-latitude Northern Hemisphere and by terrestrial snow-albedo feedback. The simulation with all forcings best reproduces the timing and magnitude of surface temperature evolution in the Southern Hemisphere in deglacial proxy records. AMOC changes associated with an orbitally induced retreat of Northern Hemisphere ice sheets is the most plausible explanation for the early Southern Hemisphere deglacial warming and its lead over Northern Hemisphere temperature; the ensuing rise in atmospheric CO(2

  18. Evidence for solar forcing of climate variation from δ18O of peat cellulose

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    洪业汤; 刘东生; 姜洪波; 周立平; 洪冰; 朱泳煊; 李汉鼎; 冷雪天; 秦小光; 王羽; 林庆华; 曾毅强

    2000-01-01

    There have been a number of investigations for examining the possible link between long-term climate variability and solar activity. A continuous δ18O record of peat cellulose covering the past 6 000 years and the response of climate variation inferred from the proxy record to solar forcing are reported. Results show that during the past 5 000 years the abrupt climate variations, including 17 warming and 17 cooling, and a serious of periodicities, such as 86, 101, 110,127, 132, 140, 155, 207, 245, 311, 820 and 1 050 years, are strikingly correlative to the changes of solar irradiation and periodicity. These observations are considered as further evidence for a close relationship between solar activity and climate variations on time scales of decades to centuries.

  19. Evidence for solar forcing of climate variation from δ18O of peat cellulose

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2000-01-01

    There have been a number of investigations for examining the possible link between long-term climate variability and solar activity.A continuous δ18O record of peat cellulose covering the past 6000 years and the response of climate variation inferred from the proxy record to solar forcing are reported.Results show that during the past 5000 years the abrupt climate variations,including 17 warming and 17 cooling,and a serious of periodicities,such as 86,101,110,127,132,140,155,207,245,311,820 and 1050 years,are strikingly correlative to the changes of solar irradiation and periodicity.These observations are considered as further evidence for a close relationship between solar activity and climate variations on time scales of decades to centuries.

  20. Comparative Study of Evolutionary Multi-objective Optimization Algorithms for a Non-linear Greenhouse Climate Control Problem

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ghoreishi, Newsha; Sørensen, Jan Corfixen; Jørgensen, Bo Nørregaard

    2015-01-01

    compare the performance of state-of-the-art multi-objective evolutionary algorithms to solve a non-linear multi-objective multi-issue optimisation problem found in Greenhouse climate control. The chosen algorithms in the study includes NSGAII, eNSGAII, eMOEA, PAES, PESAII and SPEAII. The performance...

  1. Long-period orbital climate forcing. Cyclostratigraphic studies of Cenozoic continental and marine successions in Europe. Geologica Ultraiectina (297)

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Abels, H.A.

    2008-01-01

    Orbital climate forcing is well-known for its strong impact on Earth’s climate as for example the switching from glacial to inter-glacial states in the Late Pleistocene. Typical ‘Milankovitch’ cycles are climatic precession (21.000 years or 21 kyrs), obliquity (41 kyrs), and short and long eccentric

  2. Long-period orbital climate forcing. Cyclostratigraphic studies of Cenozoic continental and marine successions in Europe. Geologica Ultraiectina (297)

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Abels, H.A.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/304848018

    2008-01-01

    Orbital climate forcing is well-known for its strong impact on Earth’s climate as for example the switching from glacial to inter-glacial states in the Late Pleistocene. Typical ‘Milankovitch’ cycles are climatic precession (21.000 years or 21 kyrs), obliquity (41 kyrs), and short and long eccentric

  3. Consideration of nonlinear wheel-rail contact forces for dynamic vehicle-bridge interaction in high-speed railways

    Science.gov (United States)

    Antolín, Pablo; Zhang, Nan; Goicolea, José M.; Xia, He; Astiz, Miguel Á.; Oliva, Javier

    2013-03-01

    In this work models with nonlinear wheel-rail contact forces are considered for analysing the dynamic interaction between high speed trains and bridges, in order to study dynamic effects both in the bridge and in the vehicles resulting from the coupling. Nonlinear contact models may be necessary for evaluating the stability and the safety of running traffic in situations such as vehicle overturn when the train is crossing a bridge under strong lateral winds or when an earthquake occurs. For studying the coupled dynamic response of trains and bridges, models of multibody dynamics are used for vehicles and the finite element method for structures. Special relevance is given here to the consideration of contact interaction forces between railway vehicles and the track. Four different interaction models are compared in this work: (1) a model where the vehicle wheelset is considered to be rigidly coupled to the track; (2) a staggered uncoupled method in which vehicle and structure are analysed separately; (3) a linear contact model in which lateral relative displacements between rails and train wheels are allowed, assuming biconic wheel and rail profiles and linear Kalker theory for tangential contact; (4) a nonlinear model in which realistic wheel and rail profiles, Hertz's nonlinear theory for normal contact and Kalker's nonlinear theory for tangential contact are used. The different models are applied and compared to experimental measurements for a test case of a high-speed train in China.

  4. Magneto-frictional Modeling of Coronal Nonlinear Force-free Fields. II. Application to Observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guo, Y.; Xia, C.; Keppens, R.

    2016-09-01

    A magneto-frictional module has been implemented and tested in the Message Passing Interface Adaptive Mesh Refinement Versatile Advection Code (MPI-AMRVAC) in the first paper of this series. Here, we apply the magneto-frictional method to observations to demonstrate its applicability in both Cartesian and spherical coordinates, and in uniform and block-adaptive octree grids. We first reconstruct a nonlinear force-free field (NLFFF) on a uniform grid of 1803 cells in Cartesian coordinates, with boundary conditions provided by the vector magnetic field observed by the Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager (HMI) on board the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) at 06:00 UT on 2010 November 11 in active region NOAA 11123. The reconstructed NLFFF successfully reproduces the sheared and twisted field lines and magnetic null points. Next, we adopt a three-level block-adaptive grid to model the same active region with a higher spatial resolution on the bottom boundary and a coarser treatment of regions higher up. The force-free and divergence-free metrics obtained are comparable to the run with a uniform grid, and the reconstructed field topology is also very similar. Finally, a group of active regions, including NOAA 11401, 11402, 11405, and 11407, observed at 03:00 UT on 2012 January 23 by SDO/HMI is modeled with a five-level block-adaptive grid in spherical coordinates, where we reach a local resolution of 0\\buildrel{\\circ}\\over{.} 06 pixel-1 in an area of 790 Mm × 604 Mm. Local high spatial resolution and a large field of view in NLFFF modeling can be achieved simultaneously in parallel and block-adaptive magneto-frictional relaxations.

  5. How to optimize nonlinear force-free coronal magnetic field extrapolations from SDO/HMI vector magnetograms?

    CERN Document Server

    Wiegelmann, T; Inhester, B; Tadesse, T; Sun, X; Hoeksema, J T

    2012-01-01

    The SDO/HMI instruments provide photospheric vector magnetograms with a high spatial and temporal resolution. Our intention is to model the coronal magnetic field above active regions with the help of a nonlinear force-free extrapolation code. Our code is based on an optimization principle and has been tested extensively with semi-analytic and numeric equilibria and been applied before to vector magnetograms from Hinode and ground based observations. Recently we implemented a new version which takes measurement errors in photospheric vector magnetograms into account. Photospheric field measurements are often due to measurement errors and finite nonmagnetic forces inconsistent as a boundary for a force-free field in the corona. In order to deal with these uncertainties, we developed two improvements: 1.) Preprocessing of the surface measurements in order to make them compatible with a force-free field 2.) The new code keeps a balance between the force-free constraint and deviation from the photospheric field m...

  6. The contribution of China’s emissions to global climate forcing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Bengang; Gasser, Thomas; Ciais, Philippe; Piao, Shilong; Tao, Shu; Balkanski, Yves; Hauglustaine, Didier; Boisier, Juan-Pablo; Chen, Zhuo; Huang, Mengtian; Li, Laurent Zhaoxin; Li, Yue; Liu, Hongyan; Liu, Junfeng; Peng, Shushi; Shen, Zehao; Sun, Zhenzhong; Wang, Rong; Wang, Tao; Yin, Guodong; Yin, Yi; Zeng, Hui; Zeng, Zhenzhong; Zhou, Feng

    2016-03-01

    Knowledge of the contribution that individual countries have made to global radiative forcing is important to the implementation of the agreement on “common but differentiated responsibilities” reached by the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. Over the past three decades, China has experienced rapid economic development, accompanied by increased emission of greenhouse gases, ozone precursors and aerosols, but the magnitude of the associated radiative forcing has remained unclear. Here we use a global coupled biogeochemistry-climate model and a chemistry and transport model to quantify China’s present-day contribution to global radiative forcing due to well-mixed greenhouse gases, short-lived atmospheric climate forcers and land-use-induced regional surface albedo changes. We find that China contributes 10% ± 4% of the current global radiative forcing. China’s relative contribution to the positive (warming) component of global radiative forcing, mainly induced by well-mixed greenhouse gases and black carbon aerosols, is 12% ± 2%. Its relative contribution to the negative (cooling) component is 15% ± 6%, dominated by the effect of sulfate and nitrate aerosols. China’s strongest contributions are 0.16 ± 0.02 watts per square metre for CO2 from fossil fuel burning, 0.13 ± 0.05 watts per square metre for CH4, -0.11 ± 0.05 watts per square metre for sulfate aerosols, and 0.09 ± 0.06 watts per square metre for black carbon aerosols. China’s eventual goal of improving air quality will result in changes in radiative forcing in the coming years: a reduction of sulfur dioxide emissions would drive a faster future warming, unless offset by larger reductions of radiative forcing from well-mixed greenhouse gases and black carbon.

  7. Is climate change an unforeseen, irresistible and external factor - A force majeure in marine environmental law?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saul, Roxanne; Barnes, Richard; Elliott, Michael

    2016-12-15

    Several environmental laws include provisions on natural causes or force majeure, which except States from their commitments if it can be proven that the failure to meet the commitment is due to factors outside their control. The European Union Marine Strategy Framework Directive (MSFD) has a pivotal role in managing EU marine waters. This paper analyses natural causes and force majeure provisions of the MFSD and other marine legislation, and addresses their interaction with climate change and its consequences, especially the effect on the obligation of ensuring seas are in Good Environmental Status. Climate change is an exogenic unmanaged pressure in that it emanates from outside the area being managed but in which the management authority has to respond to the consequences of climate change, such as sea level rise and temperature elevation, rather than its causes. It is suggested that a defence by a Member State of force majeure may be accepted if an event was proven to be due to an externality of control, irresistible and unforeseeable. The analysis contends that countering such a legal defence would centre on the fact that climate change is a well-accepted phenomenon, is foreseen with an accepted level of confidence and probability and is due to human actions. However, as yet, this has not been legally tested.

  8. Nonlinear dynamics of tapping mode atomic force microscopy in the bistable phase

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bahrami, Arash; Nayfeh, Ali H.

    2013-03-01

    Nonlinear dynamics of amplitude modulation atomic force microscopy (AFM) is studied employing a reduced-order model based on a differential quadrature method (DQM). The AFM microcantilever is assumed to be operating in the dynamic contact or tapping mode while the microcantilever tip being initially located in the bistable region. We have found that the DQM is capable of precise prediction of the static bifurcation diagram and natural frequencies of the microcantilever. We have used the DQM to discretize the partial-differential equation governing the microcantilever motion and a finite difference method (FDM) to calculate limit-cycle responses of the AFM tip. It is shown that a combination of the DQM and FDM applied, respectively, to discretize the spatial and temporal derivatives provides an efficient, accurate procedure to address the complicated dynamic behavior exhibited by the AFM probe. The procedure was, therefore, utilized to study the response of the microcantilever to a base harmonic excitation through several numerical examples. We found that the dynamics of the AFM probe in the bistable region is totally different from those in the monostable region.

  9. Coupled force-balance and scattering equations for nonlinear transport in quantum wires

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Danhong; Gumbs, Godfrey

    2009-07-01

    The coupled force-balance and scattering equations have been derived and applied to study nonlinear transport of electrons subjected to a strong dc electric field in an elastic-scattering-limited quantum wire. Numerical results have demonstrated both field-induced heating-up and cooling-down behaviors in the nonequilibrium part of the total electron-distribution function by varying the impurity density or the width of the quantum wire. The obtained asymmetric distribution function in momentum space invalidates the application of the energy-balance equation to our quantum-wire system in the center-of-mass frame. The experimentally observed suppression of mobility by a driving field for the center-of-mass motion in the quantum-wire system has been reproduced [see K. Tsubaki , Electr. Lett. 24, 1267 (1988); M. Hauser , Sci. Technol. 9, 951 (1994)]. In addition, the thermal enhancement of mobility in the elastic-scattering-limited system has been demonstrated, in accordance with a similar prediction made for graphene nanoribbons [see T. Fang , Phys. Rev. B 78, 205403 (2008)]. This thermal enhancement has been found to play a more and more significant role with higher lattice temperature and becomes stronger for a low-driving field.

  10. Non-linear hydrodynamics of axion dark matter: relative velocity effects and "quantum forces"

    CERN Document Server

    Marsh, David J E

    2015-01-01

    The non-linear hydrodynamic equations for axion/scalar field dark matter (DM) in the non-relativistic Madelung-Shcr\\"{o}dinger form are derived in a simple manner, including the effects of universal expansion and Hubble drag. The hydrodynamic equations are used to investigate the relative velocity between axion DM and baryons, and the moving-background perturbation theory (MBPT) derived. Axions massive enough to be all of the DM do not affect the coherence length of the relative velocity, but the MBPT equations are modified by the inclusion of the axion effective sound speed. These MBPT equations are necessary for accurately modelling the effects of axion DM on the formation of the first cosmic structures, and suggest that the 21cm power spectrum could improve constraints on axion mass by up to four orders of magnitude with respect to the current best constraints. A further application of these results uses the "quantum force" analogy to model scalar field gradient energy in a smoothed-particle hydrodynamics ...

  11. Nonlinear switched models for control of unsteady forces on a rapidly pitching airfoil

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dawson, Scott; Brunton, Steven; Rowley, Clarence

    2013-11-01

    The unsteady aerodynamic forces incident on a pitching flat plate airfoil at a Reynolds number of 100 are investigated through direct numerical simulation. Linear state-space models, identified from impulse response data via the eigensystem realization algorithm, are used to accurately track rapid changes in lift coefficient through either feedback or feedforward control, even in the presence of gust disturbances. We develop a technique to project between states of linear models obtained at different angles of attack using primal and pseudo-adjoint balanced POD modes. This allows for the formation of a nonlinear switched model that is accurate over a wide range of angles of attack, in both pre- and post-stall regimes. We additionally investigate phenomena that are not captured by linear models, such as an increase in mean lift that occurs when vortex shedding frequencies are excited. The effect of changing the pitch axis is also investigated, where it is found that pitching aft of the mid-chord results in right half plane zeros that increase the difficulty of the control problem. This work was supported by AFOSR grant FA9550-12-1-0075.

  12. Modelling nonlinear behavior of labor force participation rate by STAR: An application for Turkey

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sibel Cengiz

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this paper is to contribute to the understanding of the behavior of participation rates in terms of gender differences. We employed smooth autoregressive transition models for the quarterly Turkish labor force participation rates (LFPR data between 2000: Q1 - 2011: Q4 to present an asymmetric participation behavior. The smoothness parameter indicates a gradual transition from low to high regimes. It is higher for female workers compared to the male workers. Participation rates diminish during a recession but they increase smoothly during the periods of expansion. The estimation results of Enders et al. (1998 also verified the asymmetry and nonlinearity in participation rates. During periods of economic expansion, they are higher than the threshold but the low regime indicator function takes the value zero. The results of the paper have economic implications for policy makers. Due to the discouraged worker and added worker effects, LFPR should be observed with the unemployment rates while evaluating the tightness of the labor market.

  13. Metrics for comparing climate impacts of short- and long-lived climate forcing agents

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fuglestvedt, J.; Berntsen, T.

    2013-12-01

    Human activities emit a wide variety of gases and aerosols, with different characteristics that influence both air quality and climate. The emissions affect climate both directly and indirectly and operate on both short and long timescales. Tools that allow these emissions to be placed on a common scale in terms of climate impact, i.e. metrics, have a number of applications (e.g. agreements and emission trading schemes, when considering potential trade-offs between changes in emissions). The Kyoto Protocol compares greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions using the Global Warming Potential (GWP) over a 100 year time-horizon. The IPCC First Assessment Report states the GWP was presented to illustrate the difficulties in comparing GHGs. There have been many critiques of the GWP and several alternative emission metrics have been proposed, but there has been little focus on understanding the linkages between, and interpretations of, different emission metrics. Furthermore, the capability to compare components with very different lifetimes and temporal behaviour needs consideration. The temperature based metrics (e.g. the Global Temperature change Potential (GTP)) require a model for the temperature response, and additional uncertainty is thus introduced. Short-lived forcers may also give more spatially heterogeneous responses, and the possibilities to capture these spatial variations by using other indicators than global mean RF or temperature change in metrics will be discussed. The ultimate choice of emission metric(s) and time-horizon(s) should, however, depend on the objectives of climate policy. Alternatives to the current 'multi-gas and single-basket' approach will also be explored and discussed (e.g. how a two-target approach may be implemented using a two-basket approach). One example is measures to reduce near-term rate of warming and long-term stabilization which can be implemented through two separate targets and two baskets with separate set of metrics for each

  14. Dependence of climate forcing and response on the altitude of black carbon aerosols

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ban-Weiss, George A.; Cao, Long; Bala, G.; Caldeira, Ken

    2012-03-01

    Black carbon aerosols absorb solar radiation and decrease planetary albedo, and thus can contribute to climate warming. In this paper, the dependence of equilibrium climate response on the altitude of black carbon is explored using an atmospheric general circulation model coupled to a mixed layer ocean model. The simulations model aerosol direct and semi-direct effects, but not indirect effects. Aerosol concentrations are prescribed and not interactive. It is shown that climate response of black carbon is highly dependent on the altitude of the aerosol. As the altitude of black carbon increases, surface temperatures decrease; black carbon near the surface causes surface warming, whereas black carbon near the tropopause and in the stratosphere causes surface cooling. This cooling occurs despite increasing planetary absorption of sunlight (i.e. decreasing planetary albedo). We find that the trend in surface air temperature response versus the altitude of black carbon is consistent with our calculations of radiative forcing after the troposphere, stratosphere, and land surface have undergone rapid adjustment, calculated as "regressed" radiative forcing. The variation in climate response from black carbon at different altitudes occurs largely from different fast climate responses; temperature dependent feedbacks are not statistically distinguishable. Impacts of black carbon at various altitudes on the hydrological cycle are also discussed; black carbon in the lowest atmospheric layer increases precipitation despite reductions in solar radiation reaching the surface, whereas black carbon at higher altitudes decreases precipitation.

  15. Nonlinear Synergistic Emergence and Predictability in Complex Systems: Theory and Hydro-Climatic Applications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perdigão, Rui A. P.; Hall, Julia; Pires, Carlos A. L.; Blöschl, Günter

    2017-04-01

    Classical and stochastic dynamical system theories assume structural coherence and dynamic recurrence with invariants of motion that are not necessarily so. These are grounded on the unproven assumption of universality in the dynamic laws derived from statistical kinematic evaluation of non-representative empirical records. As a consequence, the associated formulations revolve around a restrictive set of configurations and intermittencies e.g. in an ergodic setting, beyond which any predictability is essentially elusive. Moreover, dynamical systems are fundamentally framed around dynamic codependence among intervening processes, i.e. entail essentially redundant interactions such as couplings and feedbacks. That precludes synergistic cooperation among processes that, whilst independent from each other, jointly produce emerging dynamic behaviour not present in any of the intervening parties. In order to overcome these fundamental limitations, we introduce a broad class of non-recursive dynamical systems that formulate dynamic emergence of unprecedented states in a fundamental synergistic manner, with fundamental principles in mind. The overall theory enables innovations to be predicted from the internal system dynamics before any a priori information is provided about the associated dynamical properties. The theory is then illustrated to anticipate, from non-emergent records, the spatiotemporal emergence of multiscale hyper chaotic regimes, critical transitions and structural coevolutionary changes in synthetic and real-world complex systems. Example applications are provided within the hydro-climatic context, formulating and dynamically forecasting evolving hydro-climatic distributions, including the emergence of extreme precipitation and flooding in a structurally changing hydro-climate system. Validation is then conducted with a posteriori verification of the simulated dynamics against observational records. Agreement between simulations and observations is

  16. Biological communities in San Francisco Bay track large-scale climate forcing over the North Pacific

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cloern, James E.; Hieb, Kathryn A.; Jacobson, Teresa; Sansó, Bruno; Di Lorenzo, Emanuele; Stacey, Mark T.; Largier, John L.; Meiring, Wendy; Peterson, William T.; Powell, Thomas M.; Winder, Monika; Jassby, Alan D.

    2010-11-01

    Long-term observations show that fish and plankton populations in the ocean fluctuate in synchrony with large-scale climate patterns, but similar evidence is lacking for estuaries because of shorter observational records. Marine fish and invertebrates have been sampled in San Francisco Bay since 1980 and exhibit large, unexplained population changes including record-high abundances of common species after 1999. Our analysis shows that populations of demersal fish, crabs and shrimp covary with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and North Pacific Gyre Oscillation (NPGO), both of which reversed signs in 1999. A time series model forced by the atmospheric driver of NPGO accounts for two-thirds of the variability in the first principal component of species abundances, and generalized linear models forced by PDO and NPGO account for most of the annual variability of individual species. We infer that synchronous shifts in climate patterns and community variability in San Francisco Bay are related to changes in oceanic wind forcing that modify coastal currents, upwelling intensity, surface temperature, and their influence on recruitment of marine species that utilize estuaries as nursery habitat. Ecological forecasts of estuarine responses to climate change must therefore consider how altered patterns of atmospheric forcing across ocean basins influence coastal oceanography as well as watershed hydrology.

  17. NONLINEAR FORCE PROFILE USED TO INCREASE THE PERFORMANCE OF A HAPTIC USER INTERFACE FOR TELEOPERATING A ROBOTIC HAND

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Anthony L. Crawford

    2012-07-01

    MODIFIED PAPER TITLE AND ABSTRACT DUE TO SLIGHTLY MODIFIED SCOPE: TITLE: Nonlinear Force Profile Used to Increase the Performance of a Haptic User Interface for Teleoperating a Robotic Hand Natural movements and force feedback are important elements in using teleoperated equipment if complex and speedy manipulation tasks are to be accomplished in hazardous environments, such as hot cells, glove boxes, decommissioning, explosives disarmament, and space. The research associated with this paper hypothesizes that a user interface and complementary radiation compatible robotic hand that integrates the human hand’s anthropometric properties, speed capability, nonlinear strength profile, reduction of active degrees of freedom during the transition from manipulation to grasping, and just noticeable difference force sensation characteristics will enhance a user’s teleoperation performance. The main contribution of this research is in that a system that concisely integrates all these factors has yet to be developed and furthermore has yet to be applied to a hazardous environment as those referenced above. In fact, the most prominent slave manipulator teleoperation technology in use today is based on a design patented in 1945 (Patent 2632574) [1]. The robotic hand/user interface systems of similar function as the one being developed in this research limit their design input requirements in the best case to only complementing the hand’s anthropometric properties, speed capability, and linearly scaled force application relationship (e.g. robotic force is a constant, 4 times that of the user). In this paper a nonlinear relationship between the force experienced between the user interface and the robotic hand was devised based on property differences of manipulation and grasping activities as they pertain to the human hand. The results show that such a relationship when subjected to a manipulation task and grasping task produces increased performance compared to the

  18. Direct shortwave forcing of climate by anthropogenic sulfate aerosol: Sensitivity to particle size, composition, and relative humidity

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nemesure, S.; Wagener, R.; Schwartz, S.E. [Brookhaven National Lab., Upton, New York (United States)

    1996-04-01

    Recent estimates of global or hemispheric average forcing of climate by anthropogenic sulfate aerosol due to scattering of shortwave radiation are uncertain by more than a factor of 2. This paper examines the sensitivity of forcing to these microphysical properties for the purposes of obtaining a better understanding of the properties required to reduce the uncertainty in the forcing.

  19. Offsetting features of climate responses to anthropogenic sulfate and black carbon direct radiative forcings

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ocko, I.; Ramaswamy, V.

    2012-12-01

    The two most prominent anthropogenic aerosols—sulfate and black carbon—affect Earth's radiation budget in opposing ways. Here we examine how these aerosols independently impact the climate, by simulating climate responses from pre-industrial times (1860) to present-day (2000) for isolated sulfate and black carbon direct radiative forcings. The NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory CM2.1 global climate model is employed with prescribed distributions of externally mixed aerosols. We find that sulfate and black carbon induce opposite effects for a myriad of climate variables. Sulfate (black carbon) is generally cooling (warming), shifts the ITCZ southward (northward), reduces (enhances) the SH Hadley Cell, enhances (reduces) the NH Hadley Cell, and increases (decreases) total sea ice volume. Individually, sulfate and black carbon affect Hadley Cell circulation more than long-lived greenhouse gases, but the net aerosol effect is a weakened response due to opposite behaviors somewhat canceling out the individual effects. Because anthropogenic aerosols are a critical contributor to Earth's climate conditions, this study has implications for future climate changes as well.

  20. The Role of Forcing and Internal Dynamics in explaining the 'Medieval Climate Anomaly'

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goossee, Hugues; Crespin, Elisabeth; Dubinkina, Svetlana; Loutre, Marie-France; Mann, Michael E.; Renssen, Hans; Shindell, Drew

    2012-01-01

    Proxy reconstructions suggest that peak global temperature during the past warm interval known as the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA, roughly 950-1250 AD) has been exceeded only during the most recent decades. To better understand the origin of this warm period, we use model simulations constrained by data assimilation establishing the spatial pattern of temperature changes that is most consistent with forcing estimates, model physics and the empirical information contained in paleoclimate proxy records. These numerical experiments demonstrate that the reconstructed spatial temperature pattern of the MCA can be explained by a simple thermodynamical response of the climate system to relatively weak changes in radiative forcing combined with a modification of the atmospheric circulation, displaying some similarities with the positive phase of the so-called Arctic Oscillation, and with northward shifts in the position of the Gulf Stream and Kuroshio currents. The mechanisms underlying the MCA are thus quite different from anthropogenic mechanisms responsible for modern global warming.

  1. Reduction of systematic biases in regional climate downscaling through ensemble forcing

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yang, Hongwei; Wang, Bin [Chinese Academy of Sciences, LASG, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Beijing (China); Wang, Bin [University of Hawaii at Manoa, Department of Meteorology, Honolulu, Hawaii (United States); University of Hawaii at Manoa, International Pacific Research Center, Honolulu, Hawaii (United States)

    2012-02-15

    Simulations of the East Asian summer monsoon for the period of 1979-2001 were carried out using the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model forced by three reanalysis datasets (NCEP-R2, ERA-40, and JRA-25). The experiments forced by different reanalysis data exhibited remarkable differences, primarily caused by uncertainties in the lateral boundary (LB) moisture fluxes over the Bay of Bengal and the Philippine Sea. The climatological mean water vapor convergence into the model domain computed from ERA-40 was about 24% higher than that from the NCEP-R2 reanalysis. We demonstrate that using the ensemble mean of NCEP-R2, ERA-40, and JRA-25 as LB forcing considerably reduced the biases in the model simulation. The use of ensemble forcing improved the performance in simulated mean circulation and precipitation, inter-annual variation in seasonal precipitation, and daily precipitation. The model simulated precipitation was superior to that in the reanalysis in both climatology and year-to-year variations, indicating the added value of dynamic downscaling. The results suggest that models having better performance under one set of LB forcing might worsen when another set of reanalysis data is used as LB forcing. Use of ensemble mean LB forcing for assessing regional climate model performance is recommended. (orig.)

  2. The impact of international shipping on European air quality and climate forcing

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    van Aardenne, J. [European Environment Agency (EEA), Copenhagen (Denmark); Colette, A. [INERIS (France); Degraeuwe, B.; de Vlieger, I. [VITO (Belgium); Hammingh, P. [PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (Netherlands); Viana, M. [CSIC (Spain)

    2013-03-15

    This EEA Technical report provides an overview on the state of knowledge on the impact of international shipping in European waters to air quality and climate change. Based on literature review and model assessment studies information is provided on past and future emissions of air pollutants and greenhouse gases, monitoring of ship emissions, emission mitigation policies and impact on European air quality and radiative forcing. (Author)

  3. Numerical Modeling of Debris Flow Force Caused by Climate Change and Its application to Check Dam

    Science.gov (United States)

    KIM, S. D.; Jun, K.; JUN, B. H.; Lee, H. J.; TAK, W. J.

    2016-12-01

    Due to global warming, climate change cause a super hurricane and heavy rainfall frequently. Heavy rainfall cause by debris flow in mountainous terrains, and disasters by debris flow force have continuously increased. The purpose of this study is to analyze the characteristics of debris flow force acting on the check dam. The numerical approach to the debris flow force was performed by the Finite Difference Method (FDM) based on the erosion-deposition combination model including the equation of continuity, mass conservation, and momentum conservation. In order to investigate behavior of the debris flow force according to the variance of supplying water discharge and channel slope angle, a rectangular straight channel and one closed type check dam was set up for conducting numerical simulations. As the supply water discharges increase, the curve of the impact force by debris flow becomes unstable and fluctuation with high impact force occurred as time passes. And the peak impact force showed a steeper slope and appeared more quickly, the high impact force undergoes a fluctuation with high speed, and acting on the check dam. At the mountainous upstream, strong rainfall energy provoke a repeat erosion and deposition which results in debris flow force causing much damage along the check dam at the mountainous place. The analyses of the present study help provide information to predict future debris flow force and how to design for the check dam. This research was supported by a grant [MPSS-NH-2014-74] through the Disaster and Safety Management Institute funded by Ministry of Public Safety and Security of Korean government

  4. Radiative forcing and climate response to projected 21st century aerosol decreases

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. M. Westervelt

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available It is widely expected that global emissions of atmospheric aerosols and their precursors will decrease strongly throughout the remainder of the 21st century, due to emission reduction policies enacted to protect human health. For instance, global emissions of aerosols and their precursors are projected to decrease by as much as 80% by the year 2100, according to the four Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP scenarios. The removal of aerosols will cause unintended climate consequences, including an unmasking of global warming from long-lived greenhouse gases. We use the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Climate Model version 3 (GFDL CM3 to simulate future climate over the 21st century with and without the aerosol emission changes projected by each of the RCPs in order to isolate the radiative forcing and climate response resulting from the aerosol reductions. We find that the projected global radiative forcing and climate response due to aerosol decreases do not vary significantly across the four RCPs by 2100, although there is some mid-century variation, especially in cloud droplet effective radius, that closely follows the RCP emissions and energy consumption projections. Up to 1 W m−2 of radiative forcing may be unmasked globally from 2005 to 2100 due to reductions in aerosol and precursor emissions, leading to average global temperature increases up to 1 K and global precipitation rate increases up to 0.09 mm d−1. Regionally and locally, climate impacts can be much larger, with a 2.1 K warming projected over China, Japan, and Korea due to the reduced aerosol emissions in RCP8.5, as well as nearly a 0.2 mm d−1 precipitation increase, a 7 g m−2 LWP decrease, and a 2 μm increase in cloud droplet effective radius. Future aerosol decreases could be responsible for 30–40% of total climate warming by 2100 in East Asia, even under the high greenhouse gas emissions scenario (RCP8.5. The expected unmasking of global warming caused

  5. The Model Intercomparison Project on the Climatic Response to Volcanic Forcing (VolMIP): Experimental Design and Forcing Input Data for CMIP6

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zanchettin, Davide; Khodri, Myriam; Timmreck, Claudia; Toohey, Matthew; Schmidt, Anja; Gerber, Edwin P.; Hegerl, Gabriele; Robock, Alan; Pausata, Francesco; Ball, William T.; Bauer, Susanne E.; LeGrande, Allegra N.; Tsigaridis, Kostas

    2016-01-01

    The enhancement of the stratospheric aerosol layer by volcanic eruptions induces a complex set of responses causing global and regional climate effects on a broad range of timescales. Uncertainties exist regarding the climatic response to strong volcanic forcing identified in coupled climate simulations that contributed to the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). In order to better understand the sources of these model diversities, the Model Intercomparison Project on the climatic response to Volcanic forcing (VolMIP) has defined a coordinated set of idealized volcanic perturbation experiments to be carried out in alignment with the CMIP6 protocol. VolMIP provides a common stratospheric aerosol data set for each experiment to minimize differences in the applied volcanic forcing. It defines a set of initial conditions to assess how internal climate variability contributes to determining the response. VolMIP will assess to what extent volcanically forced responses of the coupled ocean-atmosphere system are robustly simulated by state-of-the-art coupled climate models and identify the causes that limit robust simulated behavior, especially differences in the treatment of physical processes. This paper illustrates the design of the idealized volcanic perturbation experiments in the VolMIP protocol and describes the common aerosol forcing input data sets to be used.

  6. The Model Intercomparison Project on the climatic response to Volcanic forcing (VolMIP): experimental design and forcing input data for CMIP6

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zanchettin, Davide; Khodri, Myriam; Timmreck, Claudia; Toohey, Matthew; Schmidt, Anja; Gerber, Edwin P.; Hegerl, Gabriele; Robock, Alan; Pausata, Francesco S. R.; Ball, William T.; Bauer, Susanne E.; Bekki, Slimane; Dhomse, Sandip S.; LeGrande, Allegra N.; Mann, Graham W.; Marshall, Lauren; Mills, Michael; Marchand, Marion; Niemeier, Ulrike; Poulain, Virginie; Rozanov, Eugene; Rubino, Angelo; Stenke, Andrea; Tsigaridis, Kostas; Tummon, Fiona

    2016-08-01

    The enhancement of the stratospheric aerosol layer by volcanic eruptions induces a complex set of responses causing global and regional climate effects on a broad range of timescales. Uncertainties exist regarding the climatic response to strong volcanic forcing identified in coupled climate simulations that contributed to the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). In order to better understand the sources of these model diversities, the Model Intercomparison Project on the climatic response to Volcanic forcing (VolMIP) has defined a coordinated set of idealized volcanic perturbation experiments to be carried out in alignment with the CMIP6 protocol. VolMIP provides a common stratospheric aerosol data set for each experiment to minimize differences in the applied volcanic forcing. It defines a set of initial conditions to assess how internal climate variability contributes to determining the response. VolMIP will assess to what extent volcanically forced responses of the coupled ocean-atmosphere system are robustly simulated by state-of-the-art coupled climate models and identify the causes that limit robust simulated behavior, especially differences in the treatment of physical processes. This paper illustrates the design of the idealized volcanic perturbation experiments in the VolMIP protocol and describes the common aerosol forcing input data sets to be used.

  7. Regional insolation forcing of late Quaternary climate change in the Southern Hemisphere.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vandergoes, Marcus J; Newnham, Rewi M; Preusser, Frank; Hendy, Chris H; Lowell, Thomas V; Fitzsimons, Sean J; Hogg, Alan G; Kasper, Haino Uwe; Schlüchter, Christian

    2005-07-14

    In agreement with the Milankovitch orbital forcing hypothesis it is often assumed that glacial-interglacial climate transitions occurred synchronously in the Northern and Southern hemispheres of the Earth. It is difficult to test this assumption, because of the paucity of long, continuous climate records from the Southern Hemisphere that have not been dated by tuning them to the presumed Northern Hemisphere signals. Here we present an independently dated terrestrial pollen record from a peat bog on South Island, New Zealand, to investigate global and local factors in Southern Hemisphere climate changes during the last two glacial-interglacial cycles. Our record largely corroborates the Milankovitch model of orbital forcing but also exhibits some differences: in particular, an earlier onset and longer duration of the Last Glacial Maximum. Our results suggest that Southern Hemisphere insolation may have been responsible for these differences in timing. Our findings question the validity of applying orbital tuning to Southern Hemisphere records and suggest an alternative mechanism to the bipolar seesaw for generating interhemispheric asynchrony in climate change.

  8. NONLINEAR FORCE-FREE MODELING OF A THREE-DIMENSIONAL SIGMOID OBSERVED ON THE SUN

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Inoue, S.; Watari, S. [National Institute of Information and Communications Technology (NICT), 4-2-1 Nukui-Kitamachi, Koganei, Tokyo 184-8795 (Japan); Magara, T.; Choe, G. S., E-mail: inosato@khu.ac.kr [School of Space Research, Kyung Hee University, Yongin, Gyeonggi-do 446-701 (Korea, Republic of)

    2012-03-01

    In this work, we analyze the characteristics of the three-dimensional magnetic structure of a sigmoid observed over an active region (AR 10930) and followed by X-class flares. This is accomplished by combining a nonlinear force-free field (NLFFF) model of a coronal magnetic field and the high-resolution vector-field measurement of a photospheric magnetic field by Hinode. The key findings of our analysis reveal that the value of the X-ray intensity associated with the sigmoid is more sensitive to the strength of the electric current rather than the twist of the field lines. The strong electric current flows along the magnetic field lines and composes the central part of the sigmoid, even though the twist of the field lines is weak in that region. On the other hand, the outer region (i.e., the elbow part) of the sigmoid is basically occupied by field lines of strong twist and weak current density. Consequently, weak X-ray emission is observed. As the initial Ca II illumination basically occurs from the central part of the sigmoid, this region plays an important role in determining the onset mechanism of the flare despite its weak twisted field-line configuration. We also compare our results with the magnetohydrodynamic simulation for the formation of a sigmoid. Although the estimated values of the twist from the simulation are found to be a little higher than the values obtained from the NLFFF, we find that the field-line configurations generated by the simulation and NLFFF are remarkably analogous as long as we deal with the lower coronal region.

  9. Regional aerosol emissions and temperature response: Local and remote climate impacts of regional aerosol forcing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lewinschal, Anna; Ekman, Annica; Hansson, Hans-Christen

    2017-04-01

    Emissions of anthropogenic aerosols vary substantially over the globe and the short atmospheric residence time of aerosols leads to a highly uneven radiative forcing distribution, both spatially and temporally. Regional aerosol radiative forcing can, nevertheless, exert a large influence on the temperature field away from the forcing region through changes in heat transport or the atmospheric or ocean circulation. Moreover, the global temperature response distribution to aerosol forcing may vary depending on the geographical location of the forcing. In other words, the climate sensitivity in one region can vary depending on the location of the forcing. The surface temperature distribution response to changes in sulphate aerosol forcing caused by sulphur dioxide (SO2) emission perturbations in four different regions is investigated using the Norwegian Earth System Model (NorESM). The four regions, Europe, North America, East and South Asia, are all regions with historically high aerosol emissions and are relevant from both an air-quality and climate policy perspective. All emission perturbations are defined relative to the year 2000 emissions provided for the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5. The global mean temperature change per unit SO2 emission change is similar for all four regions for similar magnitudes of emissions changes. However, the global temperature change per unit SO2 emission in simulations where regional SO2 emission were removed is substantially higher than that obtained in simulations where regional SO2 emissions were increased. Thus, the climate sensitivity to regional SO2 emissions perturbations depends on the magnitude of the emission perturbation in NorESM. On regional scale, on the other hand, the emission perturbations in different geographical locations lead to different regional temperature responses, both locally and in remote regions. The results from the model simulations are used to construct regional temperature potential

  10. Nonlinear effects of team tenure on team psychological safety climate and climate strength: Implications for average team member performance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koopmann, Jaclyn; Lanaj, Klodiana; Wang, Mo; Zhou, Le; Shi, Junqi

    2016-07-01

    The teams literature suggests that team tenure improves team psychological safety climate and climate strength in a linear fashion, but the empirical findings to date have been mixed. Alternatively, theories of group formation suggest that new and longer tenured teams experience greater team psychological safety climate than moderately tenured teams. Adopting this second perspective, we used a sample of 115 research and development teams and found that team tenure had a curvilinear relationship with team psychological safety climate and climate strength. Supporting group formation theories, team psychological safety climate and climate strength were higher in new and longer tenured teams compared with moderately tenured teams. Moreover, we found a curvilinear relationship between team tenure and average team member creative performance as partially mediated by team psychological safety climate. Team psychological safety climate improved average team member task performance only when team psychological safety climate was strong. Likewise, team tenure influenced average team member task performance in a curvilinear manner via team psychological safety climate only when team psychological safety climate was strong. We discuss theoretical and practical implications and offer several directions for future research. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2016 APA, all rights reserved).

  11. The Impact of humidity above stratiform clouds on indirect aerosol climate forcing

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ackerman, A S; Kirkpatrick, M P; Stevens, D E; Toon, O B

    2004-12-20

    Some of the global warming effect of anthropogenic greenhouse gases is offset by increased solar reflection from clouds with smaller droplets that form on increased numbers of cloud condensation nuclei in polluted air. The global magnitude of the resulting indirect aerosol climate forcing is estimated to be comparable (and opposed) to the anthropogenic carbon dioxide forcing, but estimates are highly uncertain because of complexities in characterizing the physical process that determine global aerosol and cloud populations and their interactions. Beyond reflecting sunlight more effectively, smaller droplets are less efficient at producing precipitation, and decreased precipitation is expected to result in increased cloud water and cloud cover, further increasing the indirect forcing. Yet polluted marine boundary-layer clouds are not generally observed to hold more water. Here we use model simulations of stratocumulus clouds to show that suppression of precipitation from increased droplet concentrations leads to increased cloud water only when sufficient precipitation reaches the surface, a condition favored when the overlying air is moist. Otherwise, aerosol induced suppression of precipitation enhances entrainment of overlying dry air, thereby reducing cloud water and diminishing the indirect climate forcing.

  12. Regulation of the monsoon climate by two different orbital rhythms and forcing mechanisms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nakagawa, Takeshi; Okuda, Masaaki; Yonenobu, Hitoshi; Miyoshi, Norio; Fujiki, Toshiyuki; Gotanda, Katsuya; Tarasov, Pavel E.; Morita, Yoshimune; Takemura, Keiji; Horie, Shoji

    2008-06-01

    The East Asian monsoon is responsible for transferring hugeamounts of heat and moisture between the land and the adjacentocean. Significant changes in its capacity to do this will havedirect impacts on regional climatic gradients and global atmosphericcirculation. Determining the mechanisms that force long-termvariation in monsoon behavior is therefore important for understandingglobal climate change. Competing theories vary in the degreeof importance attached to glacial forcing, other orbital rhythms,and internal feedback mechanisms as primary drivers of change.There is, however, no convincing explanation as to why differentproxy records from closely neighboring regions are tuned todifferent orbital rhythms. Here we present quantitative climaticreconstructions for the past 450 k.y. based on a long pollenrecord from Lake Biwa in Japan. The data suggest that continentaland oceanic air mass temperatures respond predominantly to the100 k.y. orbital rhythm, whereas the land-ocean temperaturegradient and monsoon vigor oscillate mainly at the 23 k.y. insolationcycle. We suggest that the mechanisms for this behavior liein the differential response of land and ocean to solar forcing,and conclude that the 100 k.y. signal dominates monsoon intensityonly when the amplitude of solar forcing falls below a thresholdlevel.

  13. A Non-smooth Nonlinear Conjugate Gradient Method for Interactive Contact Force Problems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Silcowitz, Morten; Niebe, Sarah Maria; Erleben, Kenny

    2010-01-01

    of a nonlinear complementarity problem (NCP), which can be solved using an iterative splitting method, such as the projected Gauss–Seidel (PGS) method. We present a novel method for solving the NCP problem by applying a Fletcher–Reeves type nonlinear nonsmooth conjugate gradient (NNCG) type method. We analyze...

  14. Climate field reconstruction uncertainty arising from multivariate and nonlinear properties of predictors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Evans, M. N.; Smerdon, J. E.; Kaplan, A.; Tolwinski-Ward, S. E.; González-Rouco, J. F.

    2014-12-01

    Climate field reconstructions (CFRs) of the global annual surface air temperature (SAT) field and associated global area-weighted mean annual temperature (GMAT) are derived in a collection of pseudoproxy experiments for the past millennium. Pseudoproxies are modeled from temperature (T), precipitation (P), T+P, and VS-Lite (VSL), a nonlinear and multivariate proxy system model for tree ring widths. Spatial patterns of reconstruction skill and spectral bias for the T+P and VSL-derived CFRs are similar to those previously shown using temperature-only pseudoproxies but demonstrate overall degraded skill and spectral bias for SAT reconstruction. Analysis of GMAT spectra nevertheless suggests that the true GMAT frequency spectrum is resolved by those pseudoproxies (T, T+P, and VSL) that contain some temperature information. The results suggest that mixed temperature and moisture-responding paleoclimate data may produce actual GMAT reconstructions with skill, error, and spectral characteristics like those expected from univariate and linear temperature responders, but spatially resolved CFR results should be analyzed cautiously.

  15. Radiative Forcing and Climate Response Due to Black Carbon in Snow and Ice

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    WANG Zhili; ZHANG Hua; SHEN Xueshun

    2011-01-01

    The radiative forcing and climate response due to black carbon (BC) in snow and/or ice were investigated by integrating observed effects of BC on snow/ice albedo into an atmospheric general circulation model (BCC_AGCM2.0.1) developed by the National Climate Center (NCC) of the China Meteorological Administration (CMA).The results show that the global annual mean surface radiative forcing due to BC in snow/ice is +0.042 W m-2,with maximum forcing found over the Tibetan Plateau and regional mean forcing exceeding +2.8 W m-2.The global annual mean surface temperature increased 0.071℃ due to BC in snow/ice.Positive surface radiative forcing was clearly shown in winter and spring and increased the surface temperature of snow/ice in the Northern Hemisphere.The surface temperatures of snow-covered areas of Eurasia and North America in winter (spring) increased by 0.83℃ (0.6℃) and 0.83℃ (0.46℃),respectively.Snowmelt rates also increased greatly,leading to earlier snowmelt and peak runoff times.With the rise of surface temperatures in the Arctic,more water vapor could be released into the atmosphere,allowing easier cloud formation,which could lead to higher thermal emittance in the Arctic. However,the total cloud forcing could decrease due to increasing cloud cover,which will offset some of the positive feedback mechanism of the clouds.

  16. [Climatic change and public health: scenarios after the coming into force of the Kyoto Protocol].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ballester, Ferran; Díaz, Julio; Moreno, José Manuel

    2006-03-01

    According to the reports of the intergovernmental panel for climatic change (IPCC) human beings of the present and near future are going to experiment, in fact we are already experimenting, important changes in the world climate. Conscious of the magnitude of the problem, international organizations have taken a series of initiatives headed to stop the climatic change and to reduce its impact. This willingness has been shaped into the agreements established in the Kyoto protocol, where countries commit to reduce greenhouse-effect gas emissions. Kyoto protocol has come into force on February 16th 2005 with the support of 141 signing countries. Among the major worries are the effects which climatic change may have upon health, such as: 1) changes in the morbidity- mortality related to temperature; 2) Effects on health related with extreme meteorological events (tornados, storms, hurricanes and extreme raining); 3) Air pollution and increase of associated health effects; d) Diseases transmitted by food and water and 4) Infectious diseases transmitted by vectors and by rodents. Even if all the countries in the world committed to the Kyoto Protocol, some consequences of the climatic change will be inevitable; among them some will have a negative impact on health. It would be necessary to adapt a key response strategy to minimize the impacts of climatic change and to reduce, at minimum cost, its adverse effects on health. From the Public Health position, a relevant role can and must be played concerning the understanding of the risks for health of such climatic changes, the design of surveillance systems to evaluate possible impacts, and the establishment of systems to prevent or reduce damages as well as the identification and development of investigation needs.

  17. Climate forcing of an emerging pathogenic fungus across a montane multi-host community.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clare, Frances C; Halder, Julia B; Daniel, Olivia; Bielby, Jon; Semenov, Mikhail A; Jombart, Thibaut; Loyau, Adeline; Schmeller, Dirk S; Cunningham, Andrew A; Rowcliffe, Marcus; Garner, Trenton W J; Bosch, Jaime; Fisher, Matthew C

    2016-12-05

    Changes in the timings of seasonality as a result of anthropogenic climate change are predicted to occur over the coming decades. While this is expected to have widespread impacts on the dynamics of infectious disease through environmental forcing, empirical data are lacking. Here, we investigated whether seasonality, specifically the timing of spring ice-thaw, affected susceptibility to infection by the emerging pathogenic fungus Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd) across a montane community of amphibians that are suffering declines and extirpations as a consequence of this infection. We found a robust temporal association between the timing of the spring thaw and Bd infection in two host species, where we show that an early onset of spring forced high prevalences of infection. A third highly susceptible species (the midwife toad, Alytes obstetricans) maintained a high prevalence of infection independent of time of spring thaw. Our data show that perennially overwintering midwife toad larvae may act as a year-round reservoir of infection with variation in time of spring thaw determining the extent to which infection spills over into sympatric species. We used future temperature projections based on global climate models to demonstrate that the timing of spring thaw in this region will advance markedly by the 2050s, indicating that climate change will further force the severity of infection. Our findings on the effect of annual variability on multi-host infection dynamics show that the community-level impact of fungal infectious disease on biodiversity will need to be re-evaluated in the face of climate change.This article is part of the themed issue 'Tackling emerging fungal threats to animal health, food security and ecosystem resilience'. © 2016 The Authors.

  18. On the Effect of Extratropical Wind Stress Forcing on Pacific Subtropical Cells and Tropical Climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Graffino, Giorgio; Farneti, Riccardo; Kucharski, Fred

    2017-04-01

    The influence of extratropical atmospheric dynamics on the tropical ocean state is a classical example of ocean-atmosphere teleconnection. One way to influence tropical climate is through oceanic SubTropical Cells (STCs), shallow overturning circulation structures connecting the Equatorial Ocean with the subtropical regions. STC are responsible for large mass and energy transports, and their influence on tropical climate, and consequently on the global climate, is fundamental both on the mean and its variability. These circulation structures are present in all basins across the Tropics (Pacific, Atlantic, and Indian Ocean), with different properties and strengths due to the features of each basin. We focus here on the effect of off-equatorial winds on the Pacific STCs, which are the largest and have been previously studied for their potential role in driving low-frequency Pacific variability. Using the Modular Ocean Model version 5 (MOM5), we force the ocean surface with idealized wind stress and wind stress curl anomaly patterns, in order to highlight the influence of subtropical and extratropical forcing on STCs dynamics, and, eventually, on some aspects of Pacific tropical climate. Results have been compared with a control simulation, in which a climatological forcing has been applied at the ocean surface. Our simulations show an increased (reduced) meridional water transport for positive (negative) wind stress anomalies in the Subtropics; the structure of the thermocline at the Equator is modified as well, where cold (warm) anomalies appear. Those signatures result from anomalous values of Equatorial UnderCurrent (EUC), which is partly fed by the STCs. Meridional ocean heat transport is influenced too, showing larger (weaker) values for stronger (weaker) subtropical wind stress. Anomalous circulations are further analyzed for the interior and western boundary transports, and scalings are derived linking subtropical wind stress, STC transports and tropical

  19. Climate forcing of an emerging pathogenic fungus across a montane multi-host community

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clare, Frances C.; Halder, Julia B.; Daniel, Olivia; Bielby, Jon; Semenov, Mikhail A.; Jombart, Thibaut; Loyau, Adeline; Schmeller, Dirk S.; Cunningham, Andrew A.; Rowcliffe, Marcus; Bosch, Jaime

    2016-01-01

    Changes in the timings of seasonality as a result of anthropogenic climate change are predicted to occur over the coming decades. While this is expected to have widespread impacts on the dynamics of infectious disease through environmental forcing, empirical data are lacking. Here, we investigated whether seasonality, specifically the timing of spring ice-thaw, affected susceptibility to infection by the emerging pathogenic fungus Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd) across a montane community of amphibians that are suffering declines and extirpations as a consequence of this infection. We found a robust temporal association between the timing of the spring thaw and Bd infection in two host species, where we show that an early onset of spring forced high prevalences of infection. A third highly susceptible species (the midwife toad, Alytes obstetricans) maintained a high prevalence of infection independent of time of spring thaw. Our data show that perennially overwintering midwife toad larvae may act as a year-round reservoir of infection with variation in time of spring thaw determining the extent to which infection spills over into sympatric species. We used future temperature projections based on global climate models to demonstrate that the timing of spring thaw in this region will advance markedly by the 2050s, indicating that climate change will further force the severity of infection. Our findings on the effect of annual variability on multi-host infection dynamics show that the community-level impact of fungal infectious disease on biodiversity will need to be re-evaluated in the face of climate change. This article is part of the themed issue ‘Tackling emerging fungal threats to animal health, food security and ecosystem resilience’. PMID:28080980

  20. Comprehensive radiative forcing assesment highlights trade-offs in climate mitigation potential of managed boreal forests

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kalliokoski, Tuomo; Berninger, Frank; Bäck, Jaana; Boy, Michael; Kuusinen, Nea; Mäkelä, Annikki; Matthies, Brent; Minkkinen, Kari; Mogensen, Ditte; Peltoniemi, Mikko; Sievänen, Risto; Zhou, Luxi; Vanhatalo, Anni; Valsta, Lauri; Nikinmaa, Eero

    2016-04-01

    Boreal forests have an important role in the mitigation of climate change. In this study we evaluated four key climate impacts of forest management: (1) carbon sequestration (in forest ecosystems and wood products), (2) surface albedo of forest area, (3) forest originating Secondary Organic Aerosols (SOA) and (4) avoided CO2-emissions from wood energy and product substitution. We calculated their net effect at both a single stand and regional level using Finland as a case study. We made analyses both in current climate up to a year 2050 and in the projected climate of year 2050. At the stand level, the carbon sequestration effect and avoided CO2 emissions due to substituted materials dominated in net RF in current climate. The warming effect of surface albedo of forest cover was lower or of same magnitude than cooling effect of SOAs. Together, the rarely considered SOAs and product substitution corresponded over 70% of the total cooling effect of forest cover. The cooling effect of net radiative forcing increased along the increasing site fertility. Although the carbon stocks of broadleaved trees were smaller than that of conifers their total radiative cooling effect was larger due to the integrated albedo and aerosol effects. In the projected climate of 2050, the radiative cooling of aerosols approached the level of forest carbon fixation. These results emphasize the need for holistic evaluation of climate impacts over simple carbon sequestration analysis to understand the role of forest management in climate change mitigation. Landscape level analyses emphasized the broad range of options to reach the cooling effect. The lowest harvest regime, 50% of current annual increment (CAI), yielded the largest cooling effect. Yet, harvests up to CAI produced only slightly less cooling RF if avoided emissions were considered. This result was highly sensitive to used substitution factors. Our result highlights that the combination of intensive harvests and the use of wood

  1. 二阶非线性方程的强迫概周期振动%FORCED ALMOST PERIODIC OSCILLATION OF SECOND ORDER NONLINEAR EQUATION

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    史金麟

    2001-01-01

    In this paper, we consider forced almost periodic oscillation of second order nonlinear equation. Under some conditions, we prove the existence and uniqueness of almost periodic solution and discuss its stability.

  2. Timing and climate forcing of volcanic eruptions for the past 2,500 years.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sigl, M; Winstrup, M; McConnell, J R; Welten, K C; Plunkett, G; Ludlow, F; Büntgen, U; Caffee, M; Chellman, N; Dahl-Jensen, D; Fischer, H; Kipfstuhl, S; Kostick, C; Maselli, O J; Mekhaldi, F; Mulvaney, R; Muscheler, R; Pasteris, D R; Pilcher, J R; Salzer, M; Schüpbach, S; Steffensen, J P; Vinther, B M; Woodruff, T E

    2015-07-30

    Volcanic eruptions contribute to climate variability, but quantifying these contributions has been limited by inconsistencies in the timing of atmospheric volcanic aerosol loading determined from ice cores and subsequent cooling from climate proxies such as tree rings. Here we resolve these inconsistencies and show that large eruptions in the tropics and high latitudes were primary drivers of interannual-to-decadal temperature variability in the Northern Hemisphere during the past 2,500 years. Our results are based on new records of atmospheric aerosol loading developed from high-resolution, multi-parameter measurements from an array of Greenland and Antarctic ice cores as well as distinctive age markers to constrain chronologies. Overall, cooling was proportional to the magnitude of volcanic forcing and persisted for up to ten years after some of the largest eruptive episodes. Our revised timescale more firmly implicates volcanic eruptions as catalysts in the major sixth-century pandemics, famines, and socioeconomic disruptions in Eurasia and Mesoamerica while allowing multi-millennium quantification of climate response to volcanic forcing.

  3. Component mode synthesis and large deflection vibration of complex structures. Volume 3: Multiple-mode nonlinear free and forced vibrations of beams using finite element method

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mei, Chuh; Shen, Mo-How

    1987-01-01

    Multiple-mode nonlinear forced vibration of a beam was analyzed by the finite element method. Inplane (longitudinal) displacement and inertia (IDI) are considered in the formulation. By combining the finite element method and nonlinear theory, more realistic models of structural response are obtained more easily and faster.

  4. 75 FR 43944 - Defense Science Board; Task Force on Trends and Implications of Climate Change for National and...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-27

    ... Climate Change for National and International Security will meet in closed session August 18-19, and... Office of the Secretary Defense Science Board; Task Force on Trends and Implications of Climate Change for National and International Security AGENCY: Department of Defense (DoD). ACTION: Notice...

  5. Characteristic analysis of liquid forced nonlinear sloshing under low-gravity

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2007-01-01

    Under low gravity, the Lagrange equations in the form of volume integration of pressure of nonlinear liquid sloshing were built by variational principle. Based on this, the analytical solution of nonlinear liquid sloshing in pitching tank could be investigated. Then the velocity potential function was expanded in series by wave height function at the free surface so that the nonlinear equations with kinematics and dynamics free surface boundary conditions were derived. Finally, these nonlinear equations were investigated analytically by the multiple scales method. The result indicates that the system's amplitude-frequency response changes from 'softsping' to 'hard-spring' in the planar motion with the decresing of the Bond number, while in changes from 'hard-sping' to 'soft-spring' in the rotary motion.

  6. Resolving the phasing and forcing dynamics between North Atlantic climate and deep ocean circulation changes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Irvali, Nil; Ninnemann, Ulysses S.; Kleiven, Helga (Kikki) F.; Haflidason, Haflidi; Mjell, Tor L.

    2017-04-01

    Multidecadal changes in North Atlantic climate (e.g., AMO/AMV) have been attributed to changes in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) and suggested as a driver of overturning changes. While simulations find an in-phase relationship when AMOC modulates basin-wide climate, AMOC lags when basin scale climate is forced externally (e.g., volcanoes and solar). Unfortunately the observational records are too short to assess these multi-decadal scale dynamics. The surface climate reconstructions, based on annually resolved archives, have excellent time control raising the possibility for precise determination of phasing with other well dated records. Yet, all currently available reconstructions of deep ocean circulation have radiometric based age models; with inherent errors (±30-50 years minimum) preventing the determination of the absolute phasing between deep ocean circulation changes and AMO/AMV. In order to reduce these uncertainties we use stratigraphical appearance, abundance and geochemical composition of tephra grains from a high sedimentation rate site off the Gardar Drift, south of Iceland (GS06-144-09MC-D; 60˚ 19'N, 23˚ 58'W, 2081 m water depth). Identifying tephra layers (and their association) in the core and fingerprinting with known volcanic eruptions on Iceland provides absolute age markers. Combining these age markers with 210Pb and 14C AMS dates within the same core, we have built a new chronology for the core GS06-144-09MC-D. Changes in surface ocean hydrography and climate are further portrayed using planktonic foraminiferal δ18O, assemblage counts, modern analog technique derived sea surface temperatures and Mg/Ca paleothermometry. Records of Iceland Scotland Overflow Water (ISOW) vigor (Sortable Silt mean grain size; Mjell et al., 2016) and benthic carbon isotopes from the same core allow us to determine the absolute phasing between changes in basin-wide climate, deep ocean circulation, and deep water carbon chemistry spanning

  7. Quantifying internally generated and externally forced climate signals at regional scales in CMIP5 models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lyu, Kewei; Zhang, Xuebin; Church, John A.; Hu, Jianyu

    2015-11-01

    The Earth's climate evolves because of both internal variability and external forcings. Using Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) models, here we quantify the ratio of externally forced variance to total variance on interannual and longer time scales for regional surface air temperature (SAT) and sea level, which depends on the relative strength of externally forced signal compared to internal variability. The highest ratios are found in tropical areas for SAT but at high latitudes for sea level over the historical period when ocean dynamics and global mean thermosteric contributions are considered. Averaged globally, the ratios over a fixed time interval (e.g., 30 years) are projected to increase during the 21st century under the business-as-usual scenario (RCP8.5). In contrast, under two mitigation scenarios (RCP2.6 and RCP4.5), the ratio declines sharply by the end of the 21st century for SAT, but only declines slightly or stabilizes for sea level, indicating a slower response of sea level to climate mitigation.

  8. Accommodating species climate-forced dispersal and uncertainties in spatial conservation planning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lemes, Priscila; Loyola, Rafael Dias

    2013-01-01

    Spatial conservation prioritization should seek to anticipate climate change impacts on biodiversity and to mitigate these impacts through the development of dynamic conservation plans. Here, we defined spatial priorities for the conservation of amphibians inhabiting the Atlantic Forest Biodiversity Hotspot that overcome the likely impacts of climate change on the distribution of this imperiled fauna. First, we built ecological niche models (ENMs) for 431 amphibian species both for current time and for the mid-point of a 30-year period spanning 2071-2099 (i.e. 2080). For modeling species' niches, we combined six modeling methods and three different climate models. We also quantified and mapped model uncertainties. Our consensus models forecasted range shifts that culminate with high species richness in central and eastern Atlantic Forest, both for current time and for 2080. Most species had a significant range contraction (up to 72%) and 12% of species were projected to be regionally extinct. Most species would need to disperse because suitable climatic sites will change. Therefore, we identified a network of priority sites for conservation that minimizes the distance a given species would need to disperse because of changes in future habitat suitability (i.e. climate-forced dispersal) as well as uncertainties associated to ENMs. This network also maximized complementary species representation across currently established protected areas. Priority sites already include possible dispersal corridors linking current and future suitable habitats for amphibians. Although we used the a top-ranked Biodiversity Hotspot and amphibians as a case study for illustrating our approach, our study may help developing more effective conservation strategies under climate change, especially when applied at different spatial scales, geographic regions, and taxonomic groups.

  9. Sensitivity of direct climate forcing by atmospheric aerosols to aerosol size and composition

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pilinis, Christodoulos; Pandis, Spyros N.; Seinfeld, John H.

    1995-09-01

    We evaluate, using a box model, the sensitivity of direct climate forcing by atmospheric aerosols for a "global mean" aerosol that consists of fine and coarse modes to aerosol composition, aerosol size distribution, relative humidity (RH), aerosol mixing state (internal versus external mixture), deliquescence/crystallization hysteresis, and solar zenith angle. We also examine the dependence of aerosol upscatter fraction on aerosol size, solar zenith angle, and wavelength and the dependence of single scatter albedo on wavelength and aerosol composition. The single most important parameter in determining direct aerosol forcing is relative humidity, and the most important process is the increase of the aerosol mass as a result of water uptake. An increase of the relative humidity from 40 to 80% is estimated for the global mean aerosol considered to result in an increase of the radiative forcing by a factor of 2.1. Forcing is relatively insensitive to the fine mode diameter increase due to hygroscopic growth, as long as this mode remains inside the efficient scattering size region. The hysteresis/deliquescence region introduces additional uncertainty but, in general, errors less than 20% result by the use of the average of the two curves to predict forcing. For fine aerosol mode mean diameters in the 0.2-0.5 μm range direct aerosol forcing is relatively insensitive (errors less than 20%) to variations of the mean diameter. Estimation of the coarse mode diameter within a factor of 2 is generally sufficient for the estimation of the total aerosol radiative forcing within 20%. Moreover, the coarse mode, which represents the nonanthropogenic fraction of the aerosol, is estimated to contribute less than 10% of the total radiative forcing for all RHs of interest. Aerosol chemical composition is important to direct radiative forcing as it determines (1) water uptake with RH, and (2) optical properties. The effect of absorption by aerosol components on forcing is found to be

  10. The role of sub-milankovitch climatic forcing in the initiation of the northern hemisphere glaciation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Willis; Kleczkowski; Briggs; Gilligan

    1999-07-23

    Mechanisms responsible for the initiation of major glaciation in the Northern Hemisphere at about 2.75 million years ago are poorly understood. A laminated terrestrial sequence from Pula maar, Hungary, containing about 320,000 years in annual layers between 3.05 and 2. 60 million years ago, provides a detailed record of rates of climatic change across this dramatic transition. An analysis of the record implies that climatic variations at sub-Milankovitch frequencies (less than or equal to 15,000 years) were an important driving force during this transitional interval and that, as the threshold was approached, these increased in frequency and amplitude, possibly providing the final trigger for the amplification of Northern Hemisphere ice sheets.

  11. Climate forcing and air quality change due to regional emissions reductions by economic sector

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. Shindell

    2008-06-01

    Full Text Available We examine the air quality (AQ and radiative forcing (RF response to emissions reductions by economic sector for North America and developing Asia in the CAM and GISS composition/climate models. Decreases in annual average surface particulate are relatively robust, with intermodel variations in magnitude typically <30% and very similar spatial structure. Surface ozone responses are small and highly model dependent. The largest net RF results from reductions in emissions from the North America industrial/power and developing Asia domestic fuel burning sectors. Sulfate reductions dominate the first case, for which intermodel variations in the sulfate (or total aerosol optical depth (AOD responses are ~30% and the modeled spatial patterns of the AOD reductions are highly correlated (R=0.9. Decreases in BC dominate the developing Asia domestic fuel burning case, and show substantially greater model-to-model differences. Intermodel variations in tropospheric ozone burdens are also large, though aerosol changes dominate those cases with substantial net climate forcing. The results indicate that across-the-board emissions reductions in domestic fuel burning in developing Asia and in surface transportation in North America are likely to offer the greatest potential for substantial, simultaneous improvement in local air quality and near-term mitigation of global climate change via short-lived species. Conversely, reductions in industrial/power emissions have the potential to accelerate near-term warming, though they would improve AQ and have a long-term cooling effect on climate. These broad conclusions appear robust to intermodel differences.

  12. A nonlinear scalar model of extreme mass ratio inspirals in effective field theory I. Self force through third order

    CERN Document Server

    Galley, Chad R

    2010-01-01

    The motion of a small compact object in a background spacetime is investigated in the context of a model nonlinear scalar field theory. This model is constructed to have a perturbative structure analogous to the General Relativistic description of extreme mass ratio inspirals (EMRIs). We apply the effective field theory approach to this model and calculate the finite part of the self force on the small compact object through third order in the ratio of the size of the compact object to the curvature scale of the background (e.g., black hole) spacetime. We use well-known renormalization methods and demonstrate the consistency of the formalism in rendering the self force finite at higher orders within a point particle prescription for the small compact object. This nonlinear scalar model should be useful for studying various aspects of higher-order self force effects in EMRIs but within a comparatively simpler context than the full gravitational case. These aspects include developing practical schemes for highe...

  13. Future local and remote influences on Mediterranean ozone air quality and climate forcing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arnold, Steve; Martin, Maria Val; Emmons, Louisa; Rap, Alex; Heald, Colette; Lamarque, Jean-Francois; Tilmes, Simone

    2013-04-01

    The Mediterranean region is expected to display large increases in population over the coming decades, and to exhibit strong sensitivity to projected climate change, with increasing frequency of extreme summer temperatures and decreases in precipitation. Understanding of how these changes will affect atmospheric composition in the region is limited. The eastern Mediterranean basin has been shown to exhibit a pronounced summertime local maximum in tropospheric ozone, which impacts both local air quality and the atmospheric radiation balance. In summer, the region is subject to import of pollution from Northern Europe in the boundary layer and lower troposphere, from North American sources in the large-scale westerly flow of the free mid and upper-troposphere, as well as import of pollution lofted in the Asian monsoon and carried west to the eastern Mediterranean in anticyclonic flow in the upper troposphere over north Africa. In addition, interactions with the land-surface through biogenic emission sources and dry deposition play important roles in the Mediterranean ozone budget. Here we use the NCAR Community Earth System Model (CESM) to investigate how tropospheric ozone in the Mediterranean region responds to climate, land surface and global emissions changes between present day and 2050. We simulate climate and atmospheric composition for the year 2050, based on greenhouse gas abundances, trace gas and aerosol emissions and land cover and use from two representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios (RCP4.5 & RCP8.5), designed for use by the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5(CMIP5) experiments in support of the IPCC. By comparing these simulations with a present-day scenario, we investigate the effects of predicted changes in climate and emissions on air quality and climate forcing over the Mediterranean region. The simulations suggest decreases in boundary layer ozone and sulfate aerosol throughout the tropospheric column over the Mediterranean

  14. A statistical modelling study of the abrupt millennial-scale climate changes focusing on the influence of external forcings

    CERN Document Server

    Mitsui, Takahito

    2015-01-01

    Dansgaard-Oeschger (DO) events are abrupt millennial-scale climate changes mainly detected in the North Atlantic region during the last glacial cycle. The frequency of the DO events varied in time, supposedly because of changes in background climate conditions. Here, we investigate the influences of external forcings on DO events with statistical modelling. We assume two types of generic stochastic dynamical systems models (double-well potential-type and oscillator-type), forced by the northern hemisphere summer insolation change and/or the global ice volume change. The models are calibrated by maximizing their likelihood and compared using the Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC). Among the models, the stochastic oscillator model forced by both insolation and ice volume changes is favored by the NGRIP calcium ion data. The BIC scores provide positive evidence for the ice volume forcing in the presence of the insolation forcing but weak evidence for the insolation forcing in the presence of the ice volume for...

  15. The Nonlinear Response of the Equatorial Pacific Ocean-Atmosphere System to Periodic Variations in Insolation and its Association with the Abrupt Climate Transitions during the Quaternary.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lopes, P. G.

    2015-12-01

    The evidences of climate changes during the Quaternary are abundant but the physical mechanisms behind the climate transitions are controversial. The theory of Milankovitch takes into account the periodic orbital variations and the solar radiation received by the Earth as the main explanation for the glacial-interglacial cycles. However, some gaps in the theory still remain. In this study, we propose elucidating some of these gaps by approaching the Equatorial Pacific Ocean as a large oscillator, capable of triggering climate changes in different temporal scales. A mathematical model representing El Ninõ-like phenomena, based on Duffing equation and modulated by the astronomical cycle of 100 ka, was used to simulate the variability of the equatorial Pacific climate system over the last 2 Ma. The physical configuration of the Pacific Ocean, expressed in the equation, explains the temporal limit of the glacial-interglacial cycles. According to the simulation results, consistent with paleoclimate records, the amplification of the effects of the gradual variation of the Earth's orbit eccentricity - another unclear question - is due to the feedback mechanism of the Pacific ocean-atmosphere system, which responds non-linearly to small variations in insolation forcing and determines the ENSO-like phase (warm or cold) at different time scales and different intensities. The approach proposed here takes into account that the abrupt transitions between the ENSO-like phases, and the consequent changes in the sea surface temperature (SST) along the Equatorial Pacific Ocean, produce reactions that act as secondary causes of the temperature fluctuations that result in a glaciation (or deglaciation) - as the drastic change on the rate of evaporation/precipitation around the globe, and the increase (or decrease) of the atmospheric CO2 absorption by the phytoplankton. The transitional behavior between the warm and the cold phases, according to the presented model, is enhanced as

  16. Nonlinear Alfv\\'en wave dynamics at a 2D magnetic null point: ponderomotive force

    CERN Document Server

    Thurgood, J O

    2013-01-01

    Context : In the linear, {\\beta}=0 MHD regime, the transient properties of MHD waves in the vicinity of 2D null points are well known. The waves are decoupled and accumulate at predictable parts of the magnetic topology: fast waves accumulate at the null point; whereas Alfv\\'en waves cannot cross the separatricies. However, in nonlinear MHD mode conversion can occur at regions of inhomogeneous Alfv\\'en speed, suggesting that the decoupled nature of waves may not extend to the nonlinear regime. Aims: We investigate the behaviour of low-amplitude Alfv\\'en waves about a 2D magnetic null point in nonlinear, {\\beta}= 0 MHD. Methods: We numerically simulate the introduction of low-amplitude Alfv\\'en waves into the vicinity of a magnetic null point using the nonlinear LARE2D code. Results: Unlike in the linear regime, we find that the Alfv\\'en wave sustains cospatial daughter disturbances, manifest in the transverse and longitudinal fluid velocity, owing to the action of nonlinear magnetic pressure gradients (viz. t...

  17. A statistical mechanical approach for the computation of the climatic response to general forcings

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lucarini, V.; Sarno, S.

    2011-01-01

    The climate belongs to the class of non-equilibrium forced and dissipative systems, for which most results of quasi-equilibrium statistical mechanics, including the fluctuation-dissipation theorem, do not apply. In this paper we show for the first time how the Ruelle linear response theory, developed for studying rigorously the impact of perturbations on general observables of non-equilibrium statistical mechanical systems, can be applied with great success to analyze the climatic response to general forcings. The crucial value of the Ruelle theory lies in the fact that it allows to compute the response of the system in terms of expectation values of explicit and computable functions of the phase space averaged over the invariant measure of the unperturbed state. We choose as test bed a classical version of the Lorenz 96 model, which, in spite of its simplicity, has a well-recognized prototypical value as it is a spatially extended one-dimensional model and presents the basic ingredients, such as dissipation, advection and the presence of an external forcing, of the actual atmosphere. We recapitulate the main aspects of the general response theory and propose some new general results. We then analyze the frequency dependence of the response of both local and global observables to perturbations having localized as well as global spatial patterns. We derive analytically several properties of the corresponding susceptibilities, such as asymptotic behavior, validity of Kramers-Kronig relations, and sum rules, whose main ingredient is the causality principle. We show that all the coefficients of the leading asymptotic expansions as well as the integral constraints can be written as linear function of parameters that describe the unperturbed properties of the system, such as its average energy. Some newly obtained empirical closure equations for such parameters allow to define such properties as an explicit function of the unperturbed forcing parameter alone for a

  18. A statistical mechanical approach for the computation of the climatic response to general forcings

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V. Lucarini

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available The climate belongs to the class of non-equilibrium forced and dissipative systems, for which most results of quasi-equilibrium statistical mechanics, including the fluctuation-dissipation theorem, do not apply. In this paper we show for the first time how the Ruelle linear response theory, developed for studying rigorously the impact of perturbations on general observables of non-equilibrium statistical mechanical systems, can be applied with great success to analyze the climatic response to general forcings. The crucial value of the Ruelle theory lies in the fact that it allows to compute the response of the system in terms of expectation values of explicit and computable functions of the phase space averaged over the invariant measure of the unperturbed state. We choose as test bed a classical version of the Lorenz 96 model, which, in spite of its simplicity, has a well-recognized prototypical value as it is a spatially extended one-dimensional model and presents the basic ingredients, such as dissipation, advection and the presence of an external forcing, of the actual atmosphere. We recapitulate the main aspects of the general response theory and propose some new general results. We then analyze the frequency dependence of the response of both local and global observables to perturbations having localized as well as global spatial patterns. We derive analytically several properties of the corresponding susceptibilities, such as asymptotic behavior, validity of Kramers-Kronig relations, and sum rules, whose main ingredient is the causality principle. We show that all the coefficients of the leading asymptotic expansions as well as the integral constraints can be written as linear function of parameters that describe the unperturbed properties of the system, such as its average energy. Some newly obtained empirical closure equations for such parameters allow to define such properties as an explicit function of the unperturbed forcing

  19. Bjerknes Compensation in Meridional Heat Transport under Freshwater Forcing and the Role of Climate Feedback

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wen, Qin

    2017-04-01

    Using a coupled Earth climate model, freshwater experiments are performed to study the Bjerknes compensation (BJC) between meridional atmosphere heat transport (AHT) and meridional ocean heat transport (OHT). Freshwater hosing in the North Atlantic weakens the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) and thus reduces the northward OHT in the Atlantic significantly, leading to a cooling (warming) in surface layer in the Northern (Southern) Hemisphere. This results in an enhanced Hadley Cell and northward AHT. Meanwhile, the OHT in the Indo-Pacific is increased in response to the Hadley Cell change, partially offsetting the reduced OHT in the Atlantic. Two compensations occur here: compensation between the AHT and the Atlantic OHT, and that between the Indo-Pacific OHT and the Atlantic OHT. The AHT change compensates the OHT change very well in the extratropics, while the former overcompensates the latter in the tropics due to the Indo-Pacific change. The BJC can be understood from the viewpoint of large-scale circulation change. However, the intrinsic mechanism of BJC is related to the climate feedback of Earth system. Our coupled model experiments confirm that the occurrence of BJC is an intrinsic requirement of local energy balance, and local climate feedback determines the extent of BJC, consistent with previous theoretical results. Even during the transient period of climate change in the model, the BJC is well established when the ocean heat storage is slowly varying and its change is weaker than the net heat flux changes at the ocean surface and the top of the atmosphere. The BJC can be deduced from the local climate feedback. Under the freshwater forcing, the overcompensation in the tropics (undercompensation in the extratropics) is mainly caused by the positive longwave feedback related to cloud (negative longwave feedback related to surface temperature change). Different dominant feedbacks determine different BJC scenarios in different regions

  20. Decadal climate variability in the Mediterranean region: roles of large-scale forcings and regional processes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mariotti, Annarita [University of Maryland, Earth System Science Interdisciplinary Center, College Park, MD (United States); Italian National Agency for New Technologies, Energy and Sustainable Economic Development (ENEA), Rome (Italy); Dell' Aquila, Alessandro [Italian National Agency for New Technologies, Energy and Sustainable Economic Development (ENEA), Rome (Italy)

    2012-03-15

    considered along with those from long-term increases in greenhouse gas forcings when making regional climate out-looks for the Mediterranean 10-20 years out. (orig.)

  1. Synchronous fire activity in the tropical high Andes: an indication of regional climate forcing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Román-Cuesta, R M; Carmona-Moreno, C; Lizcano, G; New, M; Silman, M; Knoke, T; Malhi, Y; Oliveras, I; Asbjornsen, H; Vuille, M

    2014-06-01

    Global climate models suggest enhanced warming of the tropical mid and upper troposphere, with larger temperature rise rates at higher elevations. Changes in fire activity are amongst the most significant ecological consequences of rising temperatures and changing hydrological properties in mountainous ecosystems, and there is a global evidence of increased fire activity with elevation. Whilst fire research has become popular in the tropical lowlands, much less is known of the tropical high Andean region (>2000 masl, from Colombia to Bolivia). This study examines fire trends in the high Andes for three ecosystems, the Puna, the Paramo and the Yungas, for the period 1982-2006. We pose three questions: (i) is there an increased fire response with elevation? (ii) does the El Niño- Southern Oscillation control fire activity in this region? (iii) are the observed fire trends human driven (e.g., human practices and their effects on fuel build-up) or climate driven? We did not find evidence of increased fire activity with elevation but, instead, a quasicyclic and synchronous fire response in Ecuador, Peru and Bolivia, suggesting the influence of high-frequency climate forcing on fire responses on a subcontinental scale, in the high Andes. ENSO variability did not show a significant relation to fire activity for these three countries, partly because ENSO variability did not significantly relate to precipitation extremes, although it strongly did to temperature extremes. Whilst ENSO did not individually lead the observed regional fire trends, our results suggest a climate influence on fire activity, mainly through a sawtooth pattern of precipitation (increased rainfall before fire-peak seasons (t-1) followed by drought spells and unusual low temperatures (t0), which is particularly common where fire is carried by low fuel loads (e.g., grasslands and fine fuel). This climatic sawtooth appeared as the main driver of fire trends, above local human influences and fuel build

  2. Nonlinear evolution of tidally forced inertial waves in rotating fluid bodies

    CERN Document Server

    Favier, B; Baruteau, C; Ogilvie, G I

    2014-01-01

    We perform one of the first studies into the nonlinear evolution of tidally excited inertial waves in a uniformly rotating fluid body, exploring a simplified model of the fluid envelope of a planet (or the convective envelope of a solar-type star) subject to the gravitational tidal perturbations of an orbiting companion. Our model contains a perfectly rigid spherical core, which is surrounded by an envelope of incompressible uniform density fluid. The corresponding linear problem was studied in previous papers which this work extends into the nonlinear regime, at moderate Ekman numbers (the ratio of viscous to Coriolis accelerations). By performing high-resolution numerical simulations, using a combination of pseudo-spectral and spectral element methods, we investigate the effects of nonlinearities, which lead to time-dependence of the flow and the corresponding dissipation rate. Angular momentum is deposited non-uniformly, leading to the generation of significant differential rotation in the initially unifor...

  3. On the effect of orbital forcing on mid-Pliocene climate, vegetation and ice sheets

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Willeit

    2013-08-01

    Full Text Available We present results from modelling of the mid-Pliocene warm period (3.3–3 million years ago using the Earth system model of intermediate complexity CLIMBER-2 analysing the effect of changes in boundary conditions as well as of orbital forcing on climate. First we performed equilibrium experiments following the PlioMIP (Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project protocol with a CO2 concentration of 405 ppm, reconstructed mid-Pliocene orography and vegetation and a present-day orbital configuration. Simulated global Pliocene warming is about 2.5 °C, fully consistent with results of atmosphere–ocean general circulation model simulations performed for the same modelling setup. A factor separation analysis attributes 1.5 °C warming to CO2, 0.3 °C to orography, 0.2 °C to ice sheets and 0.4 °C to vegetation. Transient simulations for the entire mid-Pliocene warm period with time-dependent orbital forcing as well as interactive ice sheets and vegetation give a global warming varying within the range 1.9–2.8 °C. Ice sheet and vegetation feedbacks in synergy act as amplifiers of the orbital forcing, transforming seasonal insolation variations into an annual mean temperature signal. The effect of orbital forcing is more significant at high latitudes, especially during boreal summer, when the warming over land varies in the wide range from 0 to 10 °C. The modelled ice-sheet extent and vegetation distribution also show significant temporal variations. Modelled and reconstructed data for Northern Hemisphere sea-surface temperatures and vegetation distribution show the best agreement if the reconstructions are assumed to be representative for the warmest periods during the orbital cycles. This suggests that low-resolution Pliocene palaeoclimate reconstructions can reflect not only the impact of increased CO2 concentrations and topography changes but also the effect of orbital forcing. Therefore, the climate (Earth system sensitivity estimates from

  4. Radiative forcing estimates of sulfate aerosol in coupled climate-chemistry models with emphasis on the role of the temporal variability

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. Déandreis

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available This paper describes the impact on the sulfate aerosol radiative effects of coupling the radiative code of a global circulation model with a chemistry-aerosol module. With this coupling, temporal variations of sulfate aerosol concentrations influence the estimate of aerosol radiative impacts. Effects of this coupling have been assessed on net fluxes, radiative forcing and temperature for the direct and first indirect effects of sulfate.

    The direct effect respond almost linearly to rapid changes in concentrations whereas the first indirect effect shows a strong non-linearity. In particular, sulfate temporal variability causes a modification of the short wave net fluxes at the top of the atmosphere of +0.24 and +0.22 W m−2 for the present and preindustrial periods, respectively. This change is small compared to the value of the net flux at the top of the atmosphere (about 240 W m−2. The effect is more important in regions with low-level clouds and intermediate sulfate aerosol concentrations (from 0.1 to 0.8 μg (SO4 m−3 in our model.

    The computation of the aerosol direct radiative forcing is quite straightforward and the temporal variability has little effect on its mean value. In contrast, quantifying the first indirect radiative forcing requires tackling technical issues first. We show that the preindustrial sulfate concentrations have to be calculated with the same meteorological trajectory used for computing the present ones. If this condition is not satisfied, it introduces an error on the estimation of the first indirect radiative forcing. Solutions are proposed to assess radiative forcing properly. In the reference method, the coupling between chemistry and climate results in a global average increase of 8% in the first indirect radiative forcing. This change reaches 50% in the most sensitive regions. However, the reference method is not suited to run long climate

  5. The effect of Coriolis force on nonlinear convection in a porous medium

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. H. Riahi

    1994-01-01

    Full Text Available Nonlinear convection in a porous medium and rotating about vertical axis is studied in this paper. An upper bound to the heat flux is calculated by the method initiated first by Howard [6] for the case of infinite Prandtl number.

  6. Strategy to use the Terra Aerosol Information to Derive the Global Aerosol Radiative Forcing of Climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaufman, Yoram J.; Tanre, Didier; Einaudi, Franco (Technical Monitor)

    2000-01-01

    Terra will derive the aerosol optical thickness and properties. The aerosol properties can be used to distinguish between natural and human-made aerosol. In the polar orbit Terra will measure aerosol only once a day, around 10:30 am. How will we use this information to study the global radiative impacts of aerosol on climate? We shall present a strategy to address this problem. It includes the following steps: - From the Terra aerosol optical thickness and size distribution model we derive the effect of aerosol on reflection of solar radiation at the top of the atmosphere. In a sensitivity study we show that the effect of aerosol on solar fluxes can be derived 10 times more accurately from the MODIS data than derivation of the optical thickness itself. Applications to data over several regions will be given. - Using 1/2 million AERONET global data of aerosol spectral optical thickness we show that the aerosol optical thickness and properties during the Terra 10:30 pass are equivalent to the daily average. Due to the aerosol lifetime of several days measurements at this time of the day are enough to assess the daily impact of aerosol on radiation. - Aerosol impact on the top of the atmosphere is only part of the climate question. The INDOEX experiment showed that addressing the impact of aerosol on climate, requires also measurements of the aerosol forcing at the surface. This can be done by a combination of measurements of MODIS and AERONET data.

  7. The Plio-Pleistocene climatic evolution as a consequence of orbital forcing on the carbon cycle

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paillard, Didier

    2017-09-01

    Since the discovery of ice ages in the 19th century, a central question of climate science has been to understand the respective role of the astronomical forcing and of greenhouse gases, in particular changes in the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide. Glacial-interglacial cycles have been shown to be paced by the astronomy with a dominant periodicity of 100 ka over the last million years, and a periodicity of 41 ka between roughly 1 and 3 million years before present (Myr BP). But the role and dynamics of the carbon cycle over the last 4 million years remain poorly understood. In particular, the transition into the Pleistocene about 2.8 Myr BP or the transition towards larger glaciations about 0.8 Myr BP (sometimes referred to as the mid-Pleistocene transition, or MPT) are not easily explained as direct consequences of the astronomical forcing. Some recent atmospheric CO2 reconstructions suggest slightly higher pCO2 levels before 1 Myr BP and a slow decrease over the last few million years (Bartoli et al., 2011; Seki et al., 2010). But the dynamics and the climatic role of the carbon cycle during the Plio-Pleistocene period remain unclear. Interestingly, the δ13C marine records provide some critical information on the evolution of sources and sinks of carbon. In particular, a clear 400 kyr oscillation has been found at many different time periods and appears to be a robust feature of the carbon cycle throughout at least the last 100 Myr (e.g. Paillard and Donnadieu, 2014). This oscillation is also visible over the last 4 Myr but its relationship with the eccentricity appears less obvious, with the occurrence of longer cycles at the end of the record, and a periodicity which therefore appears shifted towards 500 kyr (see Wang et al., 2004). In the following we present a simple dynamical model that provides an explanation for these carbon cycle variations, and how they relate to the climatic evolution over the last 4 Myr. It also gives an explanation for

  8. From Toumai to Lucy: climate and orographic forcing on Environment and Early Human

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ramstein, Gilles; Contoux, Camille; Sepulchre, Pierre; Schuster, Mathieu; Jost, Anne

    2014-05-01

    This abstract will present a summary of several studies we conducted at LSCE to understand through modeling simulations how the climate and topography variations may drive the evolution/migration of Early Humans. Tectonics and orbital forcing are major forcing factors on environment which act at different time scales. African Uplift spans over Millions of years whereas at low latitudes precession cycles will produce drastic hydrologic variations at the pluri millennial time scale. Therefore, in a first step it is necessary to investigate the impact of long term topographic changes on climate and vegetation. The long term forcing of the African uplift has been first tested and investigated through a set of numerical experiments using different heights for the Rift. We pointed out that this issue was the key factor to explain the dryness of the East part of the Rift associated with the disappearance of the forests when the rift was uplifted during the late Pliocene. Prior to this, much more water penetrates from the Indian Ocean over East Africa and forests can sustain. Therefore, this pattern of Dry East of the Rift and Wet west of the Rift is driven by the uplift and consistent with the evolution of vegetation. On the other side, the Mega Lake Chad (MLC) region was not really sensitive to this topographic change but much more to orbital forcing. Two species of early hominids (Australopithecus bahrelghazali, 3,6 Ma, and Sahelanthropus tchadensis, Toumai, 7 Ma) were found in this region, associated with other vertebrate fossil remains, which seem to be associated to the presence of the Mega Lake Chad. It is thus crucial to understand how it is possible to produce and sustain such a large lake (350 000 km2) at these latitudes. Through a second series of simulations, we demonstrated that during the Pliocene, occurrences of such megalake episodes were possible (similarly as during most recent Holocene) and may be sustained during half a precession cycle (10 kyr

  9. Forced response and internal variability of summer climate over western North America

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kamae, Youichi; Shiogama, Hideo; Imada, Yukiko; Mori, Masato; Arakawa, Osamu; Mizuta, Ryo; Yoshida, Kohei; Takahashi, Chiharu; Arai, Miki; Ishii, Masayoshi; Watanabe, Masahiro; Kimoto, Masahide; Xie, Shang-Ping; Ueda, Hiroaki

    2016-09-01

    Over the past decade, anomalously hot summers and persistent droughts frequented over the western United States (wUS), the condition similar to the 1950s and 1960s. While atmospheric internal variability is important for mid-latitude interannual climate variability, it has been suggested that anthropogenic external forcing and multidecadal modes of variability in sea surface temperature, namely, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), also affect the occurrence of droughts and hot summers. In this study, 100-member ensemble simulations for 1951-2010 by an atmospheric general circulation model were used to explore relative contributions of anthropogenic warming, atmospheric internal variability, and atmospheric response to PDO and AMO to the decadal anomalies over the wUS. By comparing historical and sensitivity simulations driven by observed sea surface temperature, sea ice, historical forcing agents, and non-warming counterfactual climate forcing, we found that large portions of recent increases in mean temperature and frequency of hot summers (66 and 82 %) over the wUS can be attributed to the anthropogenic global warming. In contrast, multidecadal change in the wUS precipitation is explained by a combination of the negative PDO and the positive AMO after the 2000s. Diagnostics using a linear baroclinic model indicate that AMO- and PDO-related diabatic heating anomalies over the tropics contribute to the anomalous atmospheric circulation associated with the droughts and hot summers over wUS on multidecadal timescale. Those anomalies are not robust during the periods when PDO and AMO are in phase. The prolonged PDO-AMO antiphase period since the late twentieth century resulted in the substantial component of multidecadal anomalies in temperature and precipitation over the wUS.

  10. Orbital-scale nonlinear response of East Asian summer monsoon to its potential driving forces in the late Quaternary

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yi, Liang; Shi, Zhengguo; Tan, Liangcheng; Deng, Chenglong

    2017-06-01

    We conducted a statistical study to characterize the nonlinear response of the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) to its potential forcing factors over the last 260 ka on orbital timescales. We find that both variation in solar insolation and global ice volume were responsible for the nonlinear forcing of orbital-scale monsoonal variations, accounting for 80% of the total variance. Specifically, EASM records with dominated precession variance exhibit a more sensitive response to changes in solar insolation during intervals of enhanced monsoon strength, but are less sensitive during intervals of reduced monsoon strength. In the case of global ice volume with 100-ka variance, this difference is not one of sensitivity but rather a difference in baseline conditions, such as the relative areas of land and sea which affected the land-sea thermal gradient. We therefore suggest that EASM records with dominated precession variance recorded the signal of a shift in the location of the Inter-tropical Convergence Zone, and the associated changes in the incidence of torrential rainfall; while for proxies with dominated 100-ka variance, it recorded changes in the land-sea thermal gradient via its effects on non-torrential precipitation.

  11. Climatic and Tectonic forcing on alluvial fans in the Southern Central Andes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Terrizzano, C. M.; García Morabito, E.; Christl, M.; Likerman, J.; Tobal, J.; Yamin, M.; Zech, R.

    2017-09-01

    Mountainous regions and their forelands commonly support a suite of landforms sensitive to climate change and tectonics. Alluvial fans in particular, are prominent geomorphological features in arid and semiarid regions which provide record for landscape, climate, and tectonic evolution. We applied 10Be surface exposure dating on moraines and associated fan terraces of the Ansilta range (31.6°S - 69.8°W) in the Southern Central Andes with the aim of comparing both chronologies and examining the nature of alluvial fan development. The alluvial fans yield minimum ages of 19 ± 1 (T1), 120 ± 9 (T2), 185 ± 9 (T3), 389 ± 22 (T4) and 768 ± 35 (T5) ka. Minimum ages derived from moraines are 18 ± 1 (M1), 27 ± 1 (M2), 279 ± 23 (M3) and 410 ± 28 (M4) ka. M1-T1 and M4-T4 seem to be geomorphic counterparts during MIS2 and MIS11-12. Combining our glacial and alluvial database with that available from other published studies, we recognized further glacial-alluvial counterparts. The distinct phases of alluvial fan aggradation mainly correlate with moraines or have a regional extension and fall into local cold and wet times, so that climate seems to be the main forcing of alluvial fan formation at our study site, even being a region with proofed neotectonic activity. We interpret the presence of at least six cold and humid periods of alluvial aggradation which correlate with global MIS 2, 3, 5d-e, 8, 12 and 18-20. Based on these results, alluvial fans may allow landscape and climate reconstructions back to ∼750 ka in our study region.

  12. Derivation of amplitude equations for nonlinear oscillators subject to arbitrary forcing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mayol, Catalina; Toral, Raúl; Mirasso, Claudio R

    2004-06-01

    By using a generalization of the multiple scales technique we develop a method to derive amplitude equations for zero-dimensional forced systems. The method allows to consider either additive or multiplicative forcing terms and can be straightforwardly applied to the case that the forcing is white noise. We give examples of the use of this method to the case of the van der Pol-Duffing oscillator. The writing of the amplitude equations in terms of a Lyapunov potential allow us to obtain an analytical expression for the probability distribution function which reproduces reasonably well the numerical simulation results.

  13. Mechanical Kerr nonlinearities due to bipolar optical forces between deformable silicon waveguides.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ma, Jing; Povinelli, Michelle L

    2011-05-23

    We use an analytical method based on the perturbation of effective index at fixed frequency to calculate optical forces between silicon waveguides. We use the method to investigate the mechanical Kerr effect in a coupled-waveguide system with bipolar forces. We find that a positive mechanical Kerr coefficient results from either an attractive or repulsive force. An enhanced mechanical Kerr coefficient several orders of magnitude larger than the intrinsic Kerr coefficient is obtained in waveguides for which the optical mode approaches the air light line, given appropriate design of the waveguide dimensions.

  14. On the nonlinear on-off dynamics of a butterfly valve actuated by an induced electromotive force

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kwuimy, C. A. Kitio; Ramakrishnan, S.; Nataraj, C.

    2013-11-01

    In this paper, we study the nonlinear dynamics of a butterfly valve actuated by the induced electromotive force (emf) of a permanent magnet, with a focus on the on-off dynamics of the valve and its nonlinear response under ambient perturbation. The complex interplay between the electromagnetic, hydrodynamic and mechanical forces leads to a fundamentally multiphysical, nonlinear dynamical model for the problem. First, we analyze the stability of the on-off conditions in terms of three critical dynamical parameters - the actuating DC voltage, inlet velocity and the opening angle. Next, the response of the system to perturbations around the equilibrium points is studied in terms of the frequency response using the method of multiple scales. Finally, evidence of fractality is established using Melnikov analysis and a plot of the basins of attraction. The results reported in the article, in addition to being of fundamental theoretical interest, are expected to impact practical design considerations of electromechanical butterfly valves. For a voltage ve>vc, theoretically, the system may undergo bifurcations into the physically infeasible domain α>αm (beyond the physical boundary). Practically however, this jump cannot be realized due to the stopper in the plunger. In other words, the valve will completely close the pipe under this condition, leading to catastrophic behavior. For a voltage vevalve) using small rotational angles at the valve. In Fig. 2c, the critical inlet velocity and the critical angle of the valve are both plotted as a function of the setting coefficient. Note that the domain of stability of the valve corresponds to the region indicated in the graph. The lowest value of the inlet velocity is obtained for the full open valve and η=0. As can be observed in the figure, the seating torque η tends to reduce the upper bound for stability. In practice, it is possible to adjust the value of η by using lubrication.

  15. Characterizing the nonlinear internal wave climate in the northeastern South China Sea

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. R. Ramp

    2010-09-01

    Full Text Available Four oceanographic moorings were deployed in the South China Sea from April 2005 to June 2006 along a transect extending from the Batanes Province, Philippines in the Luzon Strait to just north of Dong-Sha Island on the Chinese continental slope. The purpose of the array was to observe and track large-amplitude nonlinear internal waves (NIWs from generation to shoaling over the course of one full year. The basin and slope moorings observed velocity, temperature (T and salinity (S at 1–3 min intervals to observe the waves without aliasing. The Luzon mooring observed velocity at 15 min and T and S at 3 min, primarily to resolve the tidal forcing in the strait.

    The observed waves travelled WNW towards 282–288 degrees with little variation. They were predominantly mode-1 waves with orbital velocities exceeding 100 cm s−1 and thermal displacements exceeding 100 m. Consistent with earlier authors, two types of waves were observed: the a-waves arrived diurnally and had a rank-ordered packet structure. The b-waves arrived in between, about an hour later each day similar to the pattern of the semi-diurnal tide. The b-waves were weaker than the a-waves, usually consisted of just one large wave, and were often absent in the deep basin, appearing as NIW only upon reaching the continental slope. The propagation speed of both types of waves was 323±31 cm s−1 in the deep basin and 222±18 cm s−1 over the continental slope. These speeds were 11–20% faster than the theoretical mode-1 wave speeds for the observed stratification, roughly consistent with the additional contribution from the nonlinear wave amplitude. The observed waves were clustered around the time of the spring tide at the presumed generation site in the Luzon Strait, and no waves were observed at neap tide. A remarkable feature was the distinct lack of waves during the winter months, December 2005 through February

  16. Approximate and numerical analysis of nonlinear forced vibration of axially moving viscoelastic beams

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Hu Ding; Li-Qun Chen

    2011-01-01

    Steady-state periodical response is investigated for an axially moving viscoelastic beam with hybrid supports via approximate analysis with numerical confirmation.It is assumed that the excitation is spatially uniform and temporally harmonic. The transverse motion of axially moving beams is governed by a nonlinear partial-differential equation and a nonlinear integro-partial-differential equation. The material time derivative is used in the viscoelastic constitutive relation. The method of multiple scales is applied to the governing equations to investigate primary resonances under general boundary conditions. It is demonstrated that the mode uninvolved in the resonance has no effect on the steady-state response. Numerical examples are presented to demonstrate the effects of the boundary constraint stiffness on the amplitude and the stability of the steady-state response. The results derived for two governing equations are qualitatively the same, but quantitatively different. The differential quadrature schemes are developed to verify those results via the method of multiple scales.

  17. Asymptotic solutions of forced nonlinear second order differential equations and their extensions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Angelo B. Mingarelli

    2007-03-01

    Full Text Available Using a modified version of Schauder's fixed point theorem, measures of non-compactness and classical techniques, we provide new general results on the asymptotic behavior and the non-oscillation of second order scalar nonlinear differential equations on a half-axis. In addition, we extend the methods and present new similar results for integral equations and Volterra-Stieltjes integral equations, a framework whose benefits include the unification of second order difference and differential equations. In so doing, we enlarge the class of nonlinearities and in some cases remove the distinction between superlinear, sublinear, and linear differential equations that is normally found in the literature. An update of papers, past and present, in the theory of Volterra-Stieltjes integral equations is also presented.

  18. Modelling of Nonlinear Dynamic of Mechanic Systems with the Force Tribological Interaction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K.A. Nuzhdin

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available This paper considers the mechanisms with different structure: tribometric device and a mechanism for handling of optical glasses. In the first device, the movement of the upper platform is due to a reciprocating friction interaction. In the second device, the processing of the optical element or group of elements occurs due to the rotational motion. Modelling of the dynamic of these systems with Matlab/Simmechanic allowed carrying out the analysis of dynamic of mechanisms, considering nonlinearity tribological interactions for these systems. The article shows that using of the computer models can effectively carry out the selection of the control parameters to create the desired mode of operation, as well as to investigate the behaviour of systems with nonlinear parameters and processes of self-oscillations. The organization of the managed self-oscillation process is realized to create the relevant high-performance manufacturing, for example, for the processing of optical glasses.

  19. Nonlinear dust acoustic waves with polarization force effects in Kappa distribution plasma

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Hui; Zhou, Suyun; Luo, Rongxiang; Liu, Sanqiu

    2017-01-01

    The propagation characteristics of dust acoustic solitary waves (DASWs) in dusty plasmas with the effects of polarization force and superthermal ions are studied. First, the polarization force induced by superthermal ions is obtained. It is shown that the superthermality of background ions affect the Debye screening of dust grains as well as the polarization force significantly. Then for small amplitude solitary waves, the KdV equation is obtained by applying the reductive perturbation technique. And for the arbitrary amplitude solitary waves, the Sagdeev potential method is employed and the Sagdeev potential is analyzed. In both case, the effects of the polarization force associated the ions’ superthermality on the characteristic of the DASWs are analyzed.

  20. A stochastic nonlinear oscillator model for glacial millennial-scale climate transitions derived from ice-core data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    F. Kwasniok

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available A stochastic Duffing-type oscillator model, i.e noise-driven motion with inertia in a potential landscape, is considered for glacial millennial-scale climate transitions. The potential and noise parameters are estimated from a Greenland ice-core record using a nonlinear Kalman filter. For the period from 60 to 20 ky before present, a bistable potential with a deep well corresponding to a cold stadial state and a shallow well corresponding to a warm interstadial state is found. The system is in the strongly dissipative regime and can be very well approximated by an effective one-dimensional Langevin equation.

  1. Modelled non-linear response to climate of Hardangerjøkulen ice cap, southern Norway, since the mid-Holocene

    Science.gov (United States)

    Åkesson, Henning; Nisancioglu, Kerim H.; Giesen, Rianne H.; Morlighem, Mathieu

    2016-04-01

    Glacier and ice cap volume changes currently amount to half of the total cryospheric contribution to sea-level rise and are projected to remain substantial throughout the 21st century. To simulate glacier behavior on centennial and longer time scales, models rely on simplified dynamics and tunable parameters for processes not well understood. Model calibration is often done using present-day observations, even though the relationship between parameters and parametrized processes may be altered for significantly different glacier states. In this study, we simulate the Hardangerjøkulen ice cap in southern Norway since the mid-Holocene, through the Little Ice Age (LIA) and into the future. We run an ensemble for both calibration and transient experiments, using a two-dimensional ice flow model with mesh refinement. For the Holocene, we apply a simple mass balance forcing based on climate reconstructions. For the LIA until 1962, we use geomorphological evidence and measured outlet glacier positions to find a mass balance history, while we use direct mass balance measurements from 1963 until today. Given a linear climate forcing, we show that Hardangerøkulen grew from ice-free conditions in the mid-Holocene, to its maximum LIA extent in a highly non-linear fashion. We relate this to local bed topography and demonstrate that volume and area of some but not all outlet glaciers, as well as the entire ice cap, become decoupled for several centuries during our simulation of the late Holocene, before co-varying approaching the LIA. Our model is able to simulate most recorded ice cap and outlet glacier changes from the LIA until today. We show that present-day Hardangerøkulen is highly sensitive to mass balance changes, and estimate that the ice cap will melt completely by the year 2100.

  2. Distributed Lag Nonlinear Modelling Approach to Identify Relationship between Climatic Factors and Dengue Incidence in Colombo District, Sri Lanka

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Thiyanga Talagala

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Dengue fever and its more severe deadly complication dengue hemorrhagic fever is an infectious mosquito borne disease. The rise in dengue fever has made a heavy economic burden to the country. Climate variability is considered as the major determinant of dengue transmission. Sri Lanka has a favorable climatic condition for development and transmission of dengue.  Hence the aim of this study is to estimate the effect of diverse climatic variables on the transmission of dengue while taking the lag effect and nonlinear effect into account. Weekly data on dengue cases were obtained from January, 2009 to September, 2014. Temperature, precipitation, visibility, humidity, and wind speed were also recorded as weekly averages. Poisson regression combined with distributed lag nonlinear model was used to quantify the impact of climatic factors. Results of  DLNM  revealed; Mean Temperature 250C – 270C at lag 1 – 8 weeks, Precipitation higher than  70mm at lag 1- 5 weeks and 20- 50mm at  lag 10 – 20 weeks, humidity ranged from 65% to 80% at lag 10 – 18 weeks, visibility greater than 14 km have a positive impact on the occurrence of dengue incidence while, mean temperature higher than 280C at lag 6 – 25 weeks, maximum temperature at lag 4 – 6 weeks, precipitation higher than 65mm at lag 15 – 20 weeks,  humidity less than 70% at lag 4 – 9 weeks, visibility less than 14km, high wind speed have a negative impact on the occurrence of dengue incidence. These findings can aid the targeting of vector control interventions and the planning for dengue vaccine implementation.

  3. Importance of tropospheric volcanic aerosol for indirect radiative forcing of climate

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Schmidt

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available Observations and models have shown that continuously degassing volcanoes have a potentially large effect on the natural background aerosol loading and the radiative state of the atmosphere. Here, we use a global aerosol microphysics model to quantify the impact of these volcanic emissions on the cloud albedo radiative forcing under pre-industrial (PI and present-day (PD conditions. We find that volcanic degassing increases global annual mean cloud droplet number concentrations by 40% under PI conditions, but by only 10% under PD conditions. Consequently, volcanic degassing causes a global annual mean cloud albedo effect of −1.06 W m−2 in the PI era but only −0.56 W m−2 in the PD era. This non-equal effect is explained partly by the lower background aerosol concentrations in the PI era, but also because more aerosol particles are produced per unit of volcanic sulphur emission in the PI atmosphere. The higher sensitivity of the PI atmosphere to volcanic emissions has an important consequence for the anthropogenic cloud radiative forcing because the large uncertainty in volcanic emissions translates into an uncertainty in the PI baseline cloud radiative state. Assuming a −50/+100% uncertainty range in the volcanic sulphur flux, we estimate the annual mean anthropogenic cloud albedo forcing to lie between −1.16 W m−2 and −0.86 W m−2. Therefore, the volcanically induced uncertainty in the PI baseline cloud radiative state substantially adds to the already large uncertainty in the magnitude of the indirect radiative forcing of climate.

  4. The impact of humidity above stratiform clouds on indirect aerosol climate forcing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ackerman, Andrew S; Kirkpatrick, Michael P; Stevens, David E; Toon, Owen B

    2004-12-23

    Some of the global warming from anthropogenic greenhouse gases is offset by increased reflection of solar radiation by clouds with smaller droplets that form in air polluted with aerosol particles that serve as cloud condensation nuclei. The resulting cooling tendency, termed the indirect aerosol forcing, is thought to be comparable in magnitude to the forcing by anthropogenic CO2, but it is difficult to estimate because the physical processes that determine global aerosol and cloud populations are poorly understood. Smaller cloud droplets not only reflect sunlight more effectively, but also inhibit precipitation, which is expected to result in increased cloud water. Such an increase in cloud water would result in even more reflective clouds, further increasing the indirect forcing. Marine boundary-layer clouds polluted by aerosol particles, however, are not generally observed to hold more water. Here we simulate stratocumulus clouds with a fluid dynamics model that includes detailed treatments of cloud microphysics and radiative transfer. Our simulations show that the response of cloud water to suppression of precipitation from increased droplet concentrations is determined by a competition between moistening from decreased surface precipitation and drying from increased entrainment of overlying air. Only when the overlying air is humid or droplet concentrations are very low does sufficient precipitation reach the surface to allow cloud water to increase with droplet concentrations. Otherwise, the response of cloud water to aerosol-induced suppression of precipitation is dominated by enhanced entrainment of overlying dry air. In this scenario, cloud water is reduced as droplet concentrations increase, which diminishes the indirect climate forcing.

  5. Meeting the Radiative Forcing Targets of the Representative Concentration Pathways in a World with Agricultural Climate Impacts

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kyle, G. Page; Mueller, C.; Calvin, Katherine V.; Thomson, Allison M.

    2014-02-28

    This study assesses how climate impacts on agriculture may change the evolution of the agricultural and energy systems in meeting the end-of-century radiative forcing targets of the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). We build on the recently completed ISI-MIP exercise that has produced global gridded estimates of future crop yields for major agricultural crops using climate model projections of the RCPs from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). For this study we use the bias-corrected outputs of the HadGEM2-ES climate model as inputs to the LPJmL crop growth model, and the outputs of LPJmL to modify inputs to the GCAM integrated assessment model. Our results indicate that agricultural climate impacts generally lead to an increase in global cropland, as compared with corresponding emissions scenarios that do not consider climate impacts on agricultural productivity. This is driven mostly by negative impacts on wheat, rice, other grains, and oil crops. Still, including agricultural climate impacts does not significantly increase the costs or change the technological strategies of global, whole-system emissions mitigation. In fact, to meet the most aggressive climate change mitigation target (2.6 W/m2 in 2100), the net mitigation costs are slightly lower when agricultural climate impacts are considered. Key contributing factors to these results are (a) low levels of climate change in the low-forcing scenarios, (b) adaptation to climate impacts, simulated in GCAM through inter-regional shifting in the production of agricultural goods, and (c) positive average climate impacts on bioenergy crop yields.

  6. River systems: basin-scale responses to human and climate forcing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chiverrell, Richard

    2010-05-01

    Geomorphological processes at a drainage basin scale operate on a continuum over environments from hillslope, piedmont, lowland alluvial to estuarine zones. During the Anthropocene the depositional or landform record typical reflects the cumulative effects of climate or extreme event forcing and conditioning by human-mediated landscape change, though tectonic and basin morphometry are other actors impacting on long-term landscape evolution. The sediment conveyer or cascade behaviour of the fluvial system, with spatially and temporally variable patterns of sediment delivery and storage punctuated by cycles of (dis)connectivity between depocenters, moderates the sediment and morphological regime. The well resolved and dated archives of change preserved in hillslope, alluvial and lacustrine sediment-landform assemblages offer some prospect for disentangling this integrated array of conditioning factors to better understand cause and effect. This paper explores these issues using several landform and sediment archives from the northwest British Isles.

  7. Numerical simulation of greening effects for idealised roofs with regional climate forcing

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gross, Guenter [Hannover Univ. (Germany). Inst. fuer Meteorologie und Klimatologie

    2012-04-15

    A numerical model was used to simulate temperature distribution in and above an extensive green roof with a long term forcing adopted from a regional climate model. Time variations of temperature for different time scales ranging from days to decades have been calculated. The results are in good agreement with selected field experiments and generally reinforce the understanding prevailing in literature regarding temperature differences of green roofs compared to a concrete roof. Green roofs result in a significant reduction of daytime human heat load and an improvement of thermal comfort conditions, while during night-time a concrete roof favours low temperatures and a low number of minimum temperatures above 20 C (tropical nights). A future shift in seasonal precipitation would necessitate irrigation in the summer months to ensure the vitality of roof vegetation. An estimation of the amount of additional watering and the increased number of watering days per year is given. (orig.)

  8. Identification of the nonlinear excitation force acting on a bowed string using the dynamical responses at remote locations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Debut, V.; Antunes, J. [ITN, ADL, P-2686 Sacavem Codex (Portugal); Delaune, X. [CEA Saclay, DEN, DM2S, SEMT, Lab Etud Dynam, F-01101 Gif Sur Yvette (France)

    2010-07-01

    For achieving realistic numerical simulations of bowed string instruments, based on physical modeling, a good understanding of the actual friction interaction phenomena is of great importance. Most work published in the field including our own has assumed that bow/string frictional forces behave according to the classical Coulomb stick-slip model, with an empirical velocity-dependent sliding friction coefficient. Indeed, the basic self-excited string motions (such as the Helmholtz regime) are well captured using such friction model. However, recent work has shown that the tribological behavior of the bow/string rosin interface is rather complex, therefore the basic velocity-dependent Coulomb model may be an over-simplistic representation of the friction force. More specifically, it was suggested that a more accurate model of the interaction force can be achieved by coupling the system dynamical equations with a thermal model which encapsulates the complex interface phenomena. In spite of the interesting work performed by Askenfelt, a direct measurement of the actual dynamical friction forces without disturbing the string motion is quite difficult. Therefore, in this work we develop a modal-based identification technique making use of inverse methods and optimization techniques, which enables the identification of the interface force, as well as the string self-excited motion, from the dynamical reactions measured at the string end supports. The method gives convincing results using simulated data originated from nonlinear computations of a bowed string. Furthermore, in cases where the force identifications are very sensitive to errors in the transfer function modal parameters, we suggest a method to improve the modal frequencies used for the identifications. Preliminary experimental results obtained using a basic bowing device, by which the string is excited with the stick of the bow, are then presented. Our identifications, from the two dynamical string reactions

  9. Kink topology control by high-frequency external forces in nonlinear Klein-Gordon models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alvarez-Nodarse, R.; Quintero, N. R.; Mertens, F. G.

    2014-10-01

    A method of averaging is applied to study the dynamics of a kink in the damped double sine-Gordon equation driven by both external (nonparametric) and parametric periodic forces at high frequencies. This theoretical approach leads to the study of a double sine-Gordon equation with an effective potential and an effective additive force. Direct numerical simulations show how the appearance of two connected π kinks and of an individual π kink can be controlled via the frequency. An anomalous negative mobility phenomenon is also predicted by theory and confirmed by simulations of the original equation.

  10. Kink topology control by high-frequency external forces in nonlinear Klein-Gordon models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alvarez-Nodarse, R; Quintero, N R; Mertens, F G

    2014-10-01

    A method of averaging is applied to study the dynamics of a kink in the damped double sine-Gordon equation driven by both external (nonparametric) and parametric periodic forces at high frequencies. This theoretical approach leads to the study of a double sine-Gordon equation with an effective potential and an effective additive force. Direct numerical simulations show how the appearance of two connected π kinks and of an individual π kink can be controlled via the frequency. An anomalous negative mobility phenomenon is also predicted by theory and confirmed by simulations of the original equation.

  11. Sensitivity of Pliocene Arctic climate to orbital forcing, atmospheric CO2 and sea ice albedo parameterisation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Howell, Fergus; Haywood, Alan; Pickering, Steven

    2016-04-01

    General circulation model (GCM) simulations of the mid-Pliocene Warm Period (mPWP, 3.264 to 3.025 Myr ago) do not reproduce the magnitude of Northern Hemisphere high latitude surface air and sea surface temperature (SAT and SST) warming that proxy data indicates. There is also large uncertainty regarding the state of sea ice cover in the mPWP. Evidence for both perennial and seasonal mPWP Arctic sea ice is found in analyses of marine sediments, whilst in a multi-model ensemble of mPWP climate simulations, half of the ensemble simulated ice-free summer Arctic conditions. Given the strong influence that sea ice exerts on high latitude temperatures, a better understanding of the nature of mPWP Arctic sea ice would be highly beneficial in understanding proxy derived estimates of high latitude surface temperature change, and the ability of climate models to reproduce this. In GCM simulations, the mPWP is typically represented with fixed orbital forcing, usually identical to modern, and atmospheric CO2 concentrations of ˜ 400 ppm. However, orbital forcing varied over the ˜ 240,000 years of the mPWP, and it is likely that atmospheric CO2 varied as well. A previous study has suggested that the parameterisation of sea ice albedo in the HadCM3 GCM may not reflect the sea ice albedo for a warmer climate, where seasonal sea ice constitutes a greater proportion of the Arctic sea ice cover. These three factors, in isolation and combined, can greatly influence the simulation of Arctic sea ice cover and the degree of high latitude surface temperature warming. This paper explores the impact of various combinations of potential mPWP orbital forcing, atmospheric CO2 concentrations and minimum sea ice albedo on sea ice extent and high latitude warming. The focus is on the Northern Hemisphere, due to availability of proxy data, and the large data-model discrepancies in this region. Changes in orbital forcings are demonstrated to be sufficient to alter the Arctic sea ice simulated by

  12. The direct radiative forcing effects of aerosols on the climate in California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Du, Hui

    The Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model is used to explore the influence of aerosol direct radiative effects on regional climate of California. Aerosol data is provided by the MOZART global chemistry transport model and includes sulfate, black carbon, organic carbon, dust and sea salt. To investigate the sensitivity of aerosol radiative effects to different aerosol species and to the quantity of sulfate and dust, tests are conducted by using different combinations of aerosols and by resetting the quantity of sulfate and dust. The model results show that all the considered aerosols could have a cooling effect of one half to one degree in terms of temperature and that dust and sulfate are the most important aerosols. However, large uncertainties exist. The results suggest that the dust from MOZART is greatly overestimated over the simulation domain. The single scattering albedo (SSA) values of dust used in some global climate models are likely underestimated compared to recent studies on dust optical properties and could result in overestimating the corresponding cooling effects by approximately 0.1 degree. Large uncertainties exist in estimating the roles of different forcing factors which are causing the observed temperature change in the past century in California.

  13. Holocene dynamics of vegetation change in southern and southeastern Brazil is consistent with climate forcing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodrigues, Jackson Martins; Behling, Hermann; Giesecke, Thomas

    2016-08-01

    At mid to high northern latitudes postglacial vegetation change has often occurred synchronously over large regions triggered mainly by abrupt climate change. Based on 19 pollen diagrams from southern and southeastern Brazil we explore if similar synchronicities in vegetation change were also characteristic for the vegetation dynamics in low latitudes. We used sequence splitting to detect past vegetation change in the pollen diagrams and computed principal curves and rates of change to visually evaluate the changes in composition and dynamics. The results show that vegetation change occurred mostly during the second half of the Holocene with distinct episodes of change. The character of vegetation change is generally consistent with shifts to wetter conditions and agrees with inferred shifts of the South American Monsoon. Speleothems as well as the titanium record from the Cariaco Basin indicate several episodes of rapid shifts in the precipitation regime, which are within the dating uncertainty of the here detected periods of vegetation change (8900, 5900, 2800, 1200 and 550 cal yrs BP). Our results indicate that low latitude vegetation composition follows precession forcing of the hydrology, while change is often triggered and synchronized by rapid climate change much like in high and mid latitudes. Pollen diagrams document changes in the abundance of individual taxa and changes in the amount of woodland cover, while small compositional changes indicate a regional stability of vegetation types during the Holocene.

  14. Historic Trends in U. S. Drought Forcing in a Warming Climate

    CERN Document Server

    Muschinski, T

    2014-01-01

    The mean North American and world climates have warmed significantly since the beginning of climatologically significant anthropogenic emission of greenhouse gases in the 19th Century. It has been suggested that warming may increase the frequency or severity of droughts. We define and study the statistics of an aridity index that describes the precipitation forcing function of a drought, considering drought to be a season with low enough precipitation to be significant for agriculture. Our aridity index is a reciprocal function of the seasonal precipitation, which is more significant for agriculture than mean precipitation. Using NOAA data from sites in 13 diverse climate regimes in the 48 contiguous United States with time series running over the period 1940--1999 but including two data series from 1900 or 1910, and computing their decadal averages, we search for linear trends in their aridity indices. We find no linear trends significant at the $2\\sigma$ level. At five sites $3\\sigma$ upper bounds on any sy...

  15. Quaternary terrestrial climatic response to orbital forcing printed in Lake Baikal sediment

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    OCHIAI Shinya; KASHIWAYA Kenji

    2011-01-01

    The long sediment core BDP98 obtained from Lake Baikal was analyzed in order to discuss the periodicity of glacial cycles in the terrestrial climatic record of the past 2.6 Ma. Spectral analysis shows that the Baikal grain size record has been dominated by orbit-related cycles with periods of about 100 ka, 41 ka, and 23 ka, similar to those in the marine isotope record. However, there are some notable differences between the Baikal and oceanic records. In the marine isotope record, the 41 ka cycle was dominant before 1 Ma and the 100 ka cycle became signiifcant only afterward. Conversely, in the Baikal record, the 100 ka period has appeared continuously throughout the past 2.6 Ma, and no appreciable shift in period is detected. These results suggest that the terrestrial climatic response to orbital forcing, as imprinted in the Baikal sediment, is different from the oceanic response. The 100 ka cycle detected in the Baikal record from before 1 Ma may be attributable to relatively long interglacials with skipping of two or three 41 ka obliquity cycles. This result may support the hypothesis that the 100 ka cycle is paced by the obliquity cycle.

  16. Plant functional trait diversity regulates the nonlinear response of productivity to regional climate change in Tibetan alpine grasslands

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Jianshuang; Wurst, Susanne; Zhang, Xianzhou

    2016-01-01

    The biodiversity-productivity relationship is still under debate for alpine grasslands on the Tibetan Plateau. We know little about direct and indirect effects of biotic and abiotic drivers on this relationship, especially in regard to plant functional trait diversity. Here, we examine how aboveground net primary productivity (ANPP) and precipitation use efficiency (PUE) respond to climate, soil and community structure across alpine grasslands on the Northern Tibetan Plateau. We found that both ANPP and PUE showed nonlinear patterns along water availability and site altitude variation, which together accounted for 80.3% and 68.8% of variation in ANPP and PUE, respectively, by optimal generalized additive models. Functional trait divergence (FTD) and community weighted mean (CWM) of plant functional traits were as important as plant species diversity (PSD) for explaining the nonlinear productivity-climate relationship. These findings were confirmed by results from principal component analyses and structural equation models. We also found that FTD was negatively correlated with PSD across different alpine grasslands. Our results implicate: first, the combinatorial influences of temperature and precipitation gradients are important for predicting alpine grassland dynamics; second, the convergence and divergence of plant functional traits may have the potential to elucidate the effect of plant diversity on ecosystem functionality. PMID:27759112

  17. Plant functional trait diversity regulates the nonlinear response of productivity to regional climate change in Tibetan alpine grasslands.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Jianshuang; Wurst, Susanne; Zhang, Xianzhou

    2016-10-19

    The biodiversity-productivity relationship is still under debate for alpine grasslands on the Tibetan Plateau. We know little about direct and indirect effects of biotic and abiotic drivers on this relationship, especially in regard to plant functional trait diversity. Here, we examine how aboveground net primary productivity (ANPP) and precipitation use efficiency (PUE) respond to climate, soil and community structure across alpine grasslands on the Northern Tibetan Plateau. We found that both ANPP and PUE showed nonlinear patterns along water availability and site altitude variation, which together accounted for 80.3% and 68.8% of variation in ANPP and PUE, respectively, by optimal generalized additive models. Functional trait divergence (FTD) and community weighted mean (CWM) of plant functional traits were as important as plant species diversity (PSD) for explaining the nonlinear productivity-climate relationship. These findings were confirmed by results from principal component analyses and structural equation models. We also found that FTD was negatively correlated with PSD across different alpine grasslands. Our results implicate: first, the combinatorial influences of temperature and precipitation gradients are important for predicting alpine grassland dynamics; second, the convergence and divergence of plant functional traits may have the potential to elucidate the effect of plant diversity on ecosystem functionality.

  18. Plant functional trait diversity regulates the nonlinear response of productivity to regional climate change in Tibetan alpine grasslands

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Jianshuang; Wurst, Susanne; Zhang, Xianzhou

    2016-10-01

    The biodiversity-productivity relationship is still under debate for alpine grasslands on the Tibetan Plateau. We know little about direct and indirect effects of biotic and abiotic drivers on this relationship, especially in regard to plant functional trait diversity. Here, we examine how aboveground net primary productivity (ANPP) and precipitation use efficiency (PUE) respond to climate, soil and community structure across alpine grasslands on the Northern Tibetan Plateau. We found that both ANPP and PUE showed nonlinear patterns along water availability and site altitude variation, which together accounted for 80.3% and 68.8% of variation in ANPP and PUE, respectively, by optimal generalized additive models. Functional trait divergence (FTD) and community weighted mean (CWM) of plant functional traits were as important as plant species diversity (PSD) for explaining the nonlinear productivity-climate relationship. These findings were confirmed by results from principal component analyses and structural equation models. We also found that FTD was negatively correlated with PSD across different alpine grasslands. Our results implicate: first, the combinatorial influences of temperature and precipitation gradients are important for predicting alpine grassland dynamics; second, the convergence and divergence of plant functional traits may have the potential to elucidate the effect of plant diversity on ecosystem functionality.

  19. Nonlinear Forced Vibration of a Viscoelastic Buckled Beam with 2 : 1 Internal Resonance

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Liu-Yang Xiong

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Nonlinear dynamics of a viscoelastic buckled beam subjected to primary resonance in the presence of internal resonance is investigated for the first time. For appropriate choice of system parameters, the natural frequency of the second mode is approximately twice that of the first providing the condition for 2 : 1 internal resonance. The ordinary differential equations of the two mode shapes are established using the Galerkin method. The problem is replaced by two coupled second-order differential equations with quadratic and cubic nonlinearities. The multiple scales method is applied to derive the modulation-phase equations. Steady-state solutions of the system as well as their stability are examined. The frequency-amplitude curves exhibit the steady-state response in the directly excited and indirectly excited modes due to modal interaction. The double-jump, the saturation phenomenon, and the nonperiodic region phenomena are observed illustrating the influence of internal resonance. The validity range of the analytical approximations is assessed by comparing the analytical approximate results with a numerical solution by the Runge-Kutta method. The unstable regions in the internal resonance are explored via numerical simulations.

  20. Indian Ocean Experiment: An integrated analysis of the climate forcing and effects of the great Indo-Asian haze

    OpenAIRE

    2001-01-01

    Every year, from December to April, anthropogenic haze spreads over most of the North Indian Ocean, and South and Southeast Asia. The Indian Ocean Experiment (INDOEX) documented this Indo-Asian haze at scales ranging from individual particles to its contribution to the regional climate forcing. This study integrates the multiplatform observations (satellites, aircraft, ships, surface stations, and balloons) with one- and four-dimensional models to derive the regional aerosol forcing resulting...

  1. The significance of cloud-radiative forcing to the general circulation on climate time scales - A satellite interpretation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sohn, Byung-Ju; Smith, Eric A.

    1992-01-01

    This paper focuses on the role of cloud- and surface-atmosphere forcing on the net radiation balance and their potential impact on the general circulation at climate time scales. The globally averaged cloud-forcing estimates and cloud sensitivity values taken from various recent studies are summarized. It is shown that the net radiative heating over the tropics is principally due to high clouds, while the net cooling in mid- and high latitudes is dominated by low and middle clouds.

  2. Future climate forcing potentially without precedent in the last 420 million years

    Science.gov (United States)

    Foster, Gavin L.; Royer, Dana L.; Lunt, Daniel J.

    2017-04-01

    The evolution of Earth's climate on geological timescales is largely driven by variations in the magnitude of total solar irradiance (TSI) and changes in the greenhouse gas content of the atmosphere. Here we show that the slow ~50 Wm-2 increase in TSI over the last ~420 million years (an increase of ~9 Wm-2 of radiative forcing) was almost completely negated by a long-term decline in atmospheric CO2. This was likely due to the silicate weathering-negative feedback and the expansion of land plants that together ensured Earth's long-term habitability. Humanity's fossil-fuel use, if unabated, risks taking us, by the middle of the twenty-first century, to values of CO2 not seen since the early Eocene (50 million years ago). If CO2 continues to rise further into the twenty-third century, then the associated large increase in radiative forcing, and how the Earth system would respond, would likely be without geological precedent in the last half a billion years.

  3. Experimental evidence of landscape reorganization under changing external forcing: implications to climate-driven knickpoints

    Science.gov (United States)

    Singh, Arvind; Tejedor, Alejandro; Grimaud, Jean-Louis; Foufoula-Georgiou, Efi

    2017-04-01

    Understanding and quantifying geomorphic and topologic re-organization of landscape in response to changing climatic or tectonic forcing is of scientific and practical interest. Although several studies have addressed the large-scale response (e.g., change in mean relief), studies on the smaller-scale drainage pattern re-organization and quantification of landscape vulnerability to the timing, magnitude, and frequency of changing forcing are lacking. To that goal, a series of controlled laboratory experiments were conducted to study the effect of changing precipitation patterns on landscape evolution at the short and long-time scales. High resolution digital elevation (DEM) both in space and time were measured for a range of rainfall patterns and uplift rates. Results from our study show a distinct signature of the precipitation increase on the probabilistic and geometrical structure of landscape features, evident in widening and deepening of channels and valleys, change in drainage patterns within sub-basins and change in the space-time structure of erosional and depositional events. A spatially explicit analysis of the locus of these erosional and depositional events show an acceleration of erosion in the hillslopes when the rainfall intensity is increased, while the incision in fluvial channels is slowed down exhibiting a sediment-flux dependent behavior. Finally, we document the changes in the longitudinal river profiles with increasing precipitation intensity, revealing the formation of knickpoints at certain confluences where large discontinuities in the ratio Qs/Qw are observed.

  4. Force

    CERN Document Server

    Graybill, George

    2007-01-01

    Forces are at work all around us. Discover what a force is, and different kinds of forces that work on contact and at a distance. We use simple language and vocabulary to make this invisible world easy for students to ""see"" and understand. Examine how forces ""add up"" to create the total force on an object, and reinforce concepts and extend learning with sample problems.

  5. Sensitivity of proxies on non-linear interactions in the climate system.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schultz, Johannes A; Beck, Christoph; Menz, Gunter; Neuwirth, Burkhard; Ohlwein, Christian; Philipp, Andreas

    2015-12-21

    Recent climate change is affecting the earth system to an unprecedented extent and intensity and has the potential to cause severe ecological and socioeconomic consequences. To understand natural and anthropogenic induced processes, feedbacks, trends, and dynamics in the climate system, it is also essential to consider longer timescales. In this context, annually resolved tree-ring data are often used to reconstruct past temperature or precipitation variability as well as atmospheric or oceanic indices such as the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) or the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). The aim of this study is to assess weather-type sensitivity across the Northern Atlantic region based on two tree-ring width networks. Our results indicate that nonstationarities in superordinate space and time scales of the climate system (here synoptic- to global scale, NAO, AMO) can affect the climate sensitivity of tree-rings in subordinate levels of the system (here meso- to synoptic scale, weather-types). This scale bias effect has the capability to impact even large multiproxy networks and the ability of these networks to provide information about past climate conditions. To avoid scale biases in climate reconstructions, interdependencies between the different scales in the climate system must be considered, especially internal ocean/atmosphere dynamics.

  6. Quantitative evaluation of atherosclerotic plaques using cross-polarization optical coherence tomography, nonlinear, and atomic force microscopy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gubarkova, Ekaterina V.; Kirillin, Mikhail Yu.; Dudenkova, Varvara V.; Timashev, Peter S.; Kotova, Svetlana L.; Kiseleva, Elena B.; Timofeeva, Lidia B.; Belkova, Galina V.; Solovieva, Anna B.; Moiseev, Alexander A.; Gelikonov, Gregory V.; Fiks, Ilya I.; Feldchtein, Felix I.; Gladkova, Natalia D.

    2016-12-01

    A combination of approaches to the image analysis in cross-polarization optical coherence tomography (CP OCT) and high-resolution imaging by nonlinear microscopy and atomic force microscopy (AFM) at the different stages of atherosclerotic plaque development is studied. This combination allowed us to qualitatively and quantitatively assess the disorganization of collagen in the atherosclerotic arterial tissue (reduction and increase of CP backscatter), at the fiber (change of the geometric distribution of fibers in the second-harmonic generation microscopy images) and fibrillar (violation of packing and different nature of a basket-weave network of fibrils in the AFM images) organization levels. The calculated CP channel-related parameters are shown to have a statistically significant difference between stable and unstable (also called vulnerable) plaques, and hence, CP OCT could be a potentially powerful, minimally invasive method for vulnerable plaques detection.

  7. Nonlinear ion modes in a strongly coupled plasma in the presence of nonthermal ion fluids and polarization force

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ema, S. A.; Hossen, M. R.; Mamun, A. A.

    2016-04-01

    The nonlinear propagation of ion-acoustic (IA) waves in a strongly coupled plasma system containing Maxwellian electrons and nonthermal ions has been theoretically and numerically investigated. The well-known reductive perturbation technique is used to derive both the Burgers and Korteweg-de Vries (KdV) equations. Their shock and solitary wave solutions have also been numerically analyzed in understanding localized electrostatic disturbances. It has been observed that the basic features (viz. polarity, amplitude, width, etc.) of IA waves are significantly modified by the effect of polarization force and other plasma parameters (e.g., the electron-to-ion number density ratio and ion-to-electron temperature ratio). This is a unique finding among all theoretical investigations made before, whose probable implications are discussed in this investigation. The implications of the results obtained from this investigation may be useful in understanding the wave propagation in both space and laboratory plasmas.

  8. Effect of Coriolis force on thermomagnetic convection in a ferrofluid saturating porous medium: A weakly nonlinear stability analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nanjundappa, C.E., E-mail: cenanju@hotmail.com [Department of Mathematics, Dr. Ambedkar Institute of Technology, Bangalore-560 056 (India); Shivakumara, I.S., E-mail: shivakumarais@gmail.com [Department of Mathematics, Bangalore University, Bangalore-560 001 (India); Prakash, H.N., E-mail: prakashahn83@gmail.com [Government Pre-University College, B H Road, Tumkur-572 102 (India)

    2014-12-15

    We investigate the influence of Coriolis force on the onset of thermomagnetic convection in ferrofluid saturating a porous layer in the presence of a uniform vertical magnetic field using both linear and weakly non-linear analyses. The modified Brinkman–Forchheimer-extended Darcy equation with Coriolis term has been used to describe the fluid flow. The linear theory based on normal mode method is considered to find the criteria for the onset of stationary thermomagnetic Convection and weakly non-linear analysis based on minimal representation of truncated Fourier series analysis containing only two terms has been used to find the Nusselt number Nu as functions of time. The range of thermal Rayleigh number R beyond which the bifurcation becomes subcritical increases with increasing Λ, Da{sup −1} and Ta. The global quantity of the heat transfer rate decreases by increasing the Taylor number Ta. The results obtained, during the above analyses, have been presented graphically and the effects of various parameters on heat and mass transfer have been discussed. Finally, we have drawn the steady streamlines for various parameters.

  9. Band Mechanism with Nonlinear Gear Ratio for Gravity Force Balance: Design and Analysis in Total System Network

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ebert, F.; Berger, M.

    The application of band mechanisms offers a wide range of possibilities in designing concepts of modern guide mechanisms. The applied belt pulleys are designed as continuous convex cam disks and allow the application of different transmission functions. A large number of transmission functions can be generated with convex curve shapes. It takes a great deal of effort to determine the correct pulley curve and is difficult for engineers without special knowledge to calculate. The syntheses process of a nonlinear band mechanism is based on the relationships between the evolute and evolvente [1]. The evolute corresponds to the pulley curve and the evolvente corresponds, for example, to the curve of the fix point of a rocker arm. By applying this method in relation with the reverse kinematics and the maintenance of total band length, allowing to generate band mechanism with required curve of transmission ratio. Beside the comments of band mechanism construction and the mathematical method of resolution—the first part of the article explains a simple four bar mechanism of couch chest the total gravity force balance with band mechanism. Therefore, the essential computing steps and limits of the solving process will be explained. With this it is possible to calculate the nonlinear transmission ratio of band mechanism with consideration of elastic band properties and inertia of bodies.

  10. Multi-fingerprint detection and attribution analysis of greenhouse gas, greenhouse gas-plus-aerosol and solar forced climate change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hegerl, G.C.; Hasselmann, K.; Cubasch, U.; Roeckner, E.; Voss, R. [Max-Planck-Institut fuer Meteorologie, Hamburg (Germany); Mitchell, J.F.B. [Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research, Bracknell (United Kingdom). Meteorological Office; Waszkewitz, J. [Deutsches Klimarechenzentrum (DKRZ), Hamburg (Germany)

    1997-09-01

    A multifingerprint analysis is applied to the detection and attribution of anthropogenic climate change. While a single fingerprint is optimal for the detection of climate change, further tests of the statistical consistency of the detected climate change signal with model predictions for different candidate forcing mechanisms require the simultaneous application of several fingerprints. Model-predicted climate change signals are derived from three anthropogenic global warming simulations for the period 1880 to 2049and two simulations forced by estimated changes in solar radiation from 1700 to 1992. In the first global warming simulation, the forcing is by greenhouse gas only, while in the remaining two simulations the direct influence of sulfate aerosols is also included. From the climate change signals of the greenhouse gas only and the average of the two greenhouse gas-plus-aerosol simulations, two optimized fingerprint patterns are derived by weighting the model-predicted climate change patterns towards low-noise directions. The optimized fingerprint patterns are then applied as a filter to the observed near-surface temperature trend patterns, yielding several detection variables. The space-time structure of natural climate variability needed to determine the optimal fingerprint pattern and the resultant signal-to-noise ratio of the detection variable is estimated from several multicentury control simulations with different CGCMs and from instrumental data over the last 136 y. Applying the combined greenhouse gas-plus-aerosol fingerprint in the same way as the greenhouse gas only fingerprint in a previous work, the recent 30-y trends (1966-1995) of annual mean near surface temperature are again found to represent a significant climate change at the 97.5% confidence level. (orig.) With 13 figs., 3 tabs., 63 refs.

  11. The Plio-Pleistocene climatic evolution as a consequence of orbital forcing on the carbon cycle

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. Paillard

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available Since the discovery of ice ages in the 19th century, a central question of climate science has been to understand the respective role of the astronomical forcing and of greenhouse gases, in particular changes in the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide. Glacial–interglacial cycles have been shown to be paced by the astronomy with a dominant periodicity of 100 ka over the last million years, and a periodicity of 41 ka between roughly 1 and 3 million years before present (Myr BP. But the role and dynamics of the carbon cycle over the last 4 million years remain poorly understood. In particular, the transition into the Pleistocene about 2.8 Myr BP or the transition towards larger glaciations about 0.8 Myr BP (sometimes referred to as the mid-Pleistocene transition, or MPT are not easily explained as direct consequences of the astronomical forcing. Some recent atmospheric CO2 reconstructions suggest slightly higher pCO2 levels before 1 Myr BP and a slow decrease over the last few million years (Bartoli et al., 2011; Seki et al., 2010. But the dynamics and the climatic role of the carbon cycle during the Plio-Pleistocene period remain unclear. Interestingly, the δ13C marine records provide some critical information on the evolution of sources and sinks of carbon. In particular, a clear 400 kyr oscillation has been found at many different time periods and appears to be a robust feature of the carbon cycle throughout at least the last 100 Myr (e.g. Paillard and Donnadieu, 2014. This oscillation is also visible over the last 4 Myr but its relationship with the eccentricity appears less obvious, with the occurrence of longer cycles at the end of the record, and a periodicity which therefore appears shifted towards 500 kyr (see Wang et al., 2004. In the following we present a simple dynamical model that provides an explanation for these carbon cycle variations, and how they relate to the climatic evolution over the

  12. An objective statistical test for eccentricity forcing of Oligo-Miocene climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Proistosescu, C.; Huybers, P.; Maloof, A. C.

    2008-12-01

    We seek a maximally objective test for the presence of orbital features in Oligocene and Miocene δ18O records from marine sediments. Changes in Earth's orbital eccentricity are thought to be an important control on the long term variability of climate during the Oligocene and Miocene Epochs. However, such an important control from eccentricity is surprising because eccentricity has relatively little influence on Earth's annual average insolation budget. Nevertheless, if significant eccentricity variability is present, it would provide important insight into the operation of the climate system at long timescales. Here we use previously published data, but using a chronology which is initially independent of orbital assumptions, to test for the presence of eccentricity period variability in the Oligocene/Miocene sediment records. In contrast to the sawtooth climate record of the Pleistocene, the Oligocene and Miocene climate record appears smooth and symmetric and does not reset itself every hundred thousand years. This smooth variation, as well as the time interval spanning many eccentricity periods makes Oligocene and Miocene paleorecords very suitable for evaluating the importance of eccentricity forcing. First, we construct time scales depending only upon the ages of geomagnetic reversals with intervening ages linearly interpolated with depth. Such a single age-depth relationship is, however, too uncertain to assess whether orbital features are present. Thus, we construct a second depth-derived age-model by averaging ages across multiple sediment cores which have, at least partly, independent accumulation rate histories. But ages are still too uncertain to permit unambiguous detection of orbital variability. Thus we employ limited tuning assumptions and measure the degree by orbital period variability increases using spectral power estimates. By tuning we know that we are biasing the record toward showing orbital variations, but we account for this bias in our

  13. Climatic Forcing on Black Sigatoka Disease of Banana Crops in Urabá, Colombia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ochoa, A.; Álvarez, P.; Poveda, G.; Buriticá, P.; Mira, J.

    2012-12-01

    Bananas are widely the most consumed fruit in the world and Colombia is one of the major producers and exporters of bananas worldwide. We analyzed the climatic forcing agents on banana crops in the Urabá region, the largest banana producer in Colombia. Although this crop is harvested continuously throughout the entire year, it exhibits climate driven seasonality. Black Sigatoka Disease (BSD) has been the most important threat for banana production worldwide. BSD attacks plant leaves producing small spots of dead material. When BSD is not treated, it can grow enough to damage the entire leaf, reducing both growth and developmental rates which may result in the loss of the plant. BSD is caused by Mycosphaerella fijiensis. This fungus is dispersed by wind with its inoculation occurring when there is water on the leaf. Thus, climatic variables such as wind, relative humidity of air (RH) and leaf wetness duration (LWD) all affect phenological phases of the banana crop (suckering, growing, flowering and harvesting). This study was carried out at the Cenibanano Experimental Plot located in Carepa (Urabá, Colombia) during 2007-2012. We used phytopathologic and weather data from the Cenibanano database along with climatic data from the North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR). BSD was diagnosed using the Biological Forecasting method. Results show that rainfall drives both plant and disease development rate. During wet periods the Foliar Emission Rate exceeds rates measured during dry periods. Although wetness is a positive factor for fungal reproduction (and BSD), it also heightens the chance for the plant to create more foliar tissue to fight against BSD. Hence, during wet periods the Severity Index of BSD is reduced in relation to dry periods. This effect was also observed at the inter-annual scale of the El Niño - South Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon. During the ENSO warm/cold phase (El Niño/La Niña) rainfall anomalies in Colombia were observed as negative

  14. 75 FR 34438 - Defense Science Board Task Force on Trends and Implications of Climate Change for National and...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-06-17

    ... Change for National and International Security will meet in closed session on July 14-15 and on July 29... of the Secretary Defense Science Board Task Force on Trends and Implications of Climate Change for National and International Security AGENCY: Department of Defense (DoD). ACTION: Notice of...

  15. Nonlinear dynamics in ecosystem response to climatic change: case studies and policy implications.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Virginia R. Burkett; Douglas A. Wilcox; Robert Stottlemeyer; Wylie Barrow; Dan Fagre; Jill Baron; Jeff Price; Jennifer L. Nielsen; Craig D. Allen; David L. Peterson; Greg Ruggerone; Thomas. Doyle

    2005-01-01

    Many biological, hydrological, and geological processes are interactively linked in ecosystems. These ecological phenomena normally vary within bounded ranges, but rapid, nonlinear changes to markedly different conditions can be triggered by even small differences if threshold values are exceeded. Intrinsic and extrinsic ecological thresholds can lead to effects that...

  16. Characterisation of stochastically-induced climate jumps to other histories paced by the astronomical forcing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    De Saedeleer, B.

    2012-04-01

    The mystery of ice ages induced by a varying incoming solar radiation has drawn ceaseless attention for several decades. A pleiad of paleoclimatic models has been developed in order to have a try at catching the underlying climate dynamics, and their validity is challenged by comparison with typical milestones in paleoclimatic records. In several published works, the astronomical forcing synchronises the climate to a unique climatic attracting trajectory representing the ice volume evolution. Other studies, though, reported multistability, i.e. the fact that several climatic attracting trajectories could coexist for some given set of parameters, in a deterministic framework. More importantly, it has been illustrated that additional disturbances may cause some 'jumps' from one trajectory to other ones in the climatic history over the last millions years of the Pleistocene. These stochastic effects hence indirectly affect the timing of the glacial inceptions and terminations. The jumping mechanism is closely linked to the widely spread hypothesis that the glacial-interglacial cycles could be primarily triggered by random internal climate variability. A conjecture has recently been made that these externally triggered jumps are the most likely when the temporary desynchronisation (positive largest local Lyapunov exponent) due to the loss of local stability coalesces with the weakening of the global stability due to the proximity to the basin boundary. No proof of this conjecture has however been provided sofar; it is precisely the aim of the present research to assess the conditions for such a jump to occur. We uncover the details of the underlying mechanisms by providing a systematic numerical study of the conditions under which these jumps are likely to occur. Extensive Monte Carlo experiments are performed in order to show that the jumps occur preferentially at specific times or locations in the phase space, for a given level of noise. We show how the most critical

  17. Internal and forced climate variability during the last millennium: a model-data comparison using ensemble simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goosse, Hugues; Renssen, Hans; Timmermann, Axel; Bradley, Raymond S.

    2005-07-01

    A three-dimensional climate model was used to perform 25 simulations over the last millennium, which are driven by the main natural and anthropogenic forcing. The results are compared to available reconstructions in order to evaluate the relative contribution of internal and forced variability during this period. At hemispheric and nearly hemispheric scale, the impact of the forcing is clear in all the simulations and knowing the forced response provides already a large amount of information about the behaviour of the climate system. Besides, at regional and local scales, the forcing has only a weak contribution to the simulated variability compared to internal variability. This result could be used to refine our conception of Medieval Warm Period and Little Ice Age (MWP and LIA). They were hemispheric-scale phenomena, since the temperature averaged over the Northern Hemisphere was, respectively generally higher/lower during those periods because of a stronger/weaker external forcing at that time. Nevertheless, at local-scale, the sign of the internal temperature variations determines to what extent the forced response will be actually visible or even masked by internal noise. Because of this role of internal variability, synchronous peak temperatures during the MWP or LIA between different locations are unlikely.

  18. Non-linear finite element model to assess the effect of tendon forces on the foot-ankle complex.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morales-Orcajo, Enrique; Souza, Thales R; Bayod, Javier; Barbosa de Las Casas, Estevam

    2017-08-11

    A three-dimensional foot finite element model with actual geometry and non-linear behavior of tendons is presented. The model is intended for analysis of the lower limb tendon forces effect in the inner foot structure. The geometry of the model was obtained from computational tomographies and magnetic resonance images. Tendon tissue was characterized with the first order Ogden material model based on experimental data from human foot tendons. Kinetic data was employed to set the load conditions. After model validation, a force sensitivity study of the five major foot extrinsic tendons was conducted to evaluate the function of each tendon. A synergic work of the inversion-eversion tendons was predicted. Pulling from a peroneus or tibialis tendon stressed the antagonist tendons while reducing the stress in the agonist. Similar paired action was predicted for the Achilles tendon with the tibialis anterior. This behavior explains the complex control motion performed by the foot. Furthermore, the stress state at the plantar fascia, the talocrural joint cartilage, the plantar soft tissue and the tendons were estimated in the early and late midstance phase of walking. These estimations will help in the understanding of the functional role of the extrinsic muscle-tendon-units in foot pronation-supination. Copyright © 2017 IPEM. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  19. The ocean's role in polar climate change: asymmetric Arctic and Antarctic responses to greenhouse gas and ozone forcing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marshall, John; Armour, Kyle C; Scott, Jeffery R; Kostov, Yavor; Hausmann, Ute; Ferreira, David; Shepherd, Theodore G; Bitz, Cecilia M

    2014-07-13

    In recent decades, the Arctic has been warming and sea ice disappearing. By contrast, the Southern Ocean around Antarctica has been (mainly) cooling and sea-ice extent growing. We argue here that interhemispheric asymmetries in the mean ocean circulation, with sinking in the northern North Atlantic and upwelling around Antarctica, strongly influence the sea-surface temperature (SST) response to anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) forcing, accelerating warming in the Arctic while delaying it in the Antarctic. Furthermore, while the amplitude of GHG forcing has been similar at the poles, significant ozone depletion only occurs over Antarctica. We suggest that the initial response of SST around Antarctica to ozone depletion is one of cooling and only later adds to the GHG-induced warming trend as upwelling of sub-surface warm water associated with stronger surface westerlies impacts surface properties. We organize our discussion around 'climate response functions' (CRFs), i.e. the response of the climate to 'step' changes in anthropogenic forcing in which GHG and/or ozone-hole forcing is abruptly turned on and the transient response of the climate revealed and studied. Convolutions of known or postulated GHG and ozone-hole forcing functions with their respective CRFs then yield the transient forced SST response (implied by linear response theory), providing a context for discussion of the differing warming/cooling trends in the Arctic and Antarctic. We speculate that the period through which we are now passing may be one in which the delayed warming of SST associated with GHG forcing around Antarctica is largely cancelled by the cooling effects associated with the ozone hole. By mid-century, however, ozone-hole effects may instead be adding to GHG warming around Antarctica but with diminished amplitude as the ozone hole heals. The Arctic, meanwhile, responding to GHG forcing but in a manner amplified by ocean heat transport, may continue to warm at an accelerating rate.

  20. Analytical treatment of the nonlinear electron cloud effect and the combined effects with beam-beam and space charge nonlinear forces in storage rings

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    GAO Jie

    2009-01-01

    In this paper we treat first some nonlinear beam dynamics problems in storage rings, such as beam dynamic apertures due to magnetic multipoles, wiggles, beam-beam effects, nonlinear space charge effect, and then nonlinear electron cloud effect combined with beam-beam and space charge effects, analytically. This analytical treatment is applied to BEPC Ⅱ. The corresponding analytical expressions developed in this paper are useful both in understanding the physics behind these problems and also in making practical quick hand estimations.

  1. Climate responses to SATIRE and SIM-based spectral solar forcing in a 3D atmosphere-ocean coupled GCM

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wen Guoyong

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available We apply two reconstructed spectral solar forcing scenarios, one SIM (Spectral Irradiance Monitor based, the other the SATIRE (Spectral And Total Irradiance REconstruction modeled, as inputs to the GISS (Goddard Institute for Space Studies GCMAM (Global Climate Middle Atmosphere Model to examine climate responses on decadal to centennial time scales, focusing on quantifying the difference of climate response between the two solar forcing scenarios. We run the GCMAM for about 400 years with present day trace gas and aerosol for the two solar forcing inputs. We find that the SIM-based solar forcing induces much larger long-term response and 11-year variation in global averaged stratospheric temperature and column ozone. We find significant decreasing trends of planetary albedo for both forcing scenarios in the 400-year model runs. However the mechanisms for the decrease are very different. For SATIRE solar forcing, the decreasing trend of planetary albedo is associated with changes in cloud cover. For SIM-based solar forcing, without significant change in cloud cover on centennial and longer time scales, the apparent decreasing trend of planetary albedo is mainly due to out-of-phase variation in shortwave radiative forcing proxy (downwelling flux for wavelength >330 nm and total solar irradiance (TSI. From the Maunder Minimum to present, global averaged annual mean surface air temperature has a response of ~0.1 °C to SATIRE solar forcing compared to ~0.04 °C to SIM-based solar forcing. For 11-year solar cycle, the global surface air temperature response has 3-year lagged response to either forcing scenario. The global surface air 11-year temperature response to SATIRE forcing is about 0.12 °C, similar to recent multi-model estimates, and comparable to the observational-based evidence. However, the global surface air temperature response to 11-year SIM-based solar forcing is insignificant and inconsistent with observation-based evidence.

  2. The effect of high pass filtering and non-linear normalization on the EMG-force relationship during sub-maximal finger exertions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McDonald, Alison C; Sanei, Kia; Keir, Peter J

    2013-06-01

    Muscle force estimates are important for full understanding of the musculoskeletal system and EMG is a modeling method used to estimate muscle force. The purpose of this investigation was to examine the effect of high pass filtering and non-linear normalization on the EMG-force relationship of sub-maximal finger exertions. Sub-maximal isometric ramp exertions were performed under three conditions (i) extension with restraint at the mid-proximal phalanx, (ii) flexion at the proximal phalanx and (iii) flexion at the distal phalanx. Thirty high pass filter designs were compared to a standardized processing procedure and an exponential fit equation was used for non-linear normalization. High pass filtering significantly reduced the %RMS error and increased the peak cross correlation between EMG and force in the distal flexion condition and in the other two conditions there was a trend towards improving force predictions with high pass filtering. The degree of linearity differed between the three contraction conditions and high pass filtering improved the linearity in all conditions. Non-linear normalization had greater impact on the EMG-force relationship than high pass filtering. The difference in optimal processing parameters suggests that high pass filtering and linearity are dependent on contraction mode as well as the muscle analyzed.

  3. Non-linear responses of glaciated prairie wetlands to climate warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnson, W. Carter; Werner, Brett; Guntenspergen, Glenn R.

    2016-01-01

    The response of ecosystems to climate warming is likely to include threshold events when small changes in key environmental drivers produce large changes in an ecosystem. Wetlands of the Prairie Pothole Region (PPR) are especially sensitive to climate variability, yet the possibility that functional changes may occur more rapidly with warming than expected has not been examined or modeled. The productivity and biodiversity of these wetlands are strongly controlled by the speed and completeness of a vegetation cover cycle driven by the wet and dry extremes of climate. Two thresholds involving duration and depth of standing water must be exceeded every few decades or so to complete the cycle and to produce highly functional wetlands. Model experiments at 19 weather stations employing incremental warming scenarios determined that wetland function across most of the PPR would be diminished beyond a climate warming of about 1.5–2.0 °C, a critical temperature threshold range identified in other climate change studies.

  4. Bottom-up and climatic forcing on the worldwide population of leatherback turtles.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saba, Vincent S; Spotila, James R; Chavez, Francisco P; Musick, John A

    2008-05-01

    Nesting populations of leatherback turtles (Dermochelys coriacea) in the Atlantic and western Indian Oceans are increasing or stable while those in the Pacific are declining. It has been suggested that leatherbacks in the eastern Pacific may be resource limited due to environmental variability derived from the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), but this has yet to be tested. Here we explored bottom-up forcing and the responding reproductive output of nesting leatherbacks worldwide. We achieved this through an extensive review of leatherback nesting and migration data and by analyzing the spatial, temporal, and quantitative nature of resources as indicated by net primary production at post-nesting female migration and foraging areas. Leatherbacks in the eastern Pacific were the smallest in body size and had the lowest reproductive output due to less productive and inconsistent resources within their migration and foraging areas. This derived from natural interannual and multidecadal climate variability together with an influence of anthropogenic climate warming that is possibly affecting these natural cycles. The reproductive output of leatherbacks in the Atlantic and western Indian Oceans was nearly twice that of turtles in the eastern Pacific. The inconsistent nature of the Pacific Ocean may also render western Pacific leatherbacks susceptible to a more variable reproductive output; however, it appears that egg harvesting on nesting beaches is their major threat. We suggest that the eastern Pacific leatherback population is more sensitive to anthropogenic mortality due to recruitment rates that are lower and more variable, thus accounting for much of the population differences compared to Atlantic and western Indian turtles.

  5. Variations of global and continental water balance components as impacted by climate forcing uncertainty and human water use

    Science.gov (United States)

    Müller Schmied, Hannes; Adam, Linda; Eisner, Stephanie; Fink, Gabriel; Flörke, Martina; Kim, Hyungjun; Oki, Taikan; Portmann, Felix Theodor; Reinecke, Robert; Riedel, Claudia; Song, Qi; Zhang, Jing; Döll, Petra

    2016-07-01

    When assessing global water resources with hydrological models, it is essential to know about methodological uncertainties. The values of simulated water balance components may vary due to different spatial and temporal aggregations, reference periods, and applied climate forcings, as well as due to the consideration of human water use, or the lack thereof. We analyzed these variations over the period 1901-2010 by forcing the global hydrological model WaterGAP 2.2 (ISIMIP2a) with five state-of-the-art climate data sets, including a homogenized version of the concatenated WFD/WFDEI data set. Absolute values and temporal variations of global water balance components are strongly affected by the uncertainty in the climate forcing, and no temporal trends of the global water balance components are detected for the four homogeneous climate forcings considered (except for human water abstractions). The calibration of WaterGAP against observed long-term average river discharge Q significantly reduces the impact of climate forcing uncertainty on estimated Q and renewable water resources. For the homogeneous forcings, Q of the calibrated and non-calibrated regions of the globe varies by 1.6 and 18.5 %, respectively, for 1971-2000. On the continental scale, most differences for long-term average precipitation P and Q estimates occur in Africa and, due to snow undercatch of rain gauges, also in the data-rich continents Europe and North America. Variations of Q at the grid-cell scale are large, except in a few grid cells upstream and downstream of calibration stations, with an average variation of 37 and 74 % among the four homogeneous forcings in calibrated and non-calibrated regions, respectively. Considering only the forcings GSWP3 and WFDEI_hom, i.e., excluding the forcing without undercatch correction (PGFv2.1) and the one with a much lower shortwave downward radiation SWD than the others (WFD), Q variations are reduced to 16 and 31 % in calibrated and non

  6. Constraining Climate Forcing of Ice Nucleation with SPartICus/MACPEX Observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, X.; Zhang, K.; Wang, M.; Comstock, J. M.; Mitchell, D. L.; Mace, G. G.; Jensen, E. J.

    2012-12-01

    reflect the parameter uncertainties in cirrus parameterizations. The climate forcing of ice nucleation under different scenarios is assessed. Our results indicate (1) homogeneous ice nucleation may play a dominant role in ice formation compared to the heterogeneous nucleation in the midlatitude cirrus with temperature less than -40 °C over the SGP site, (2) the threshold size in the parameterization for the autoconversion of ice crystals to snow is ~250 μm, (3) the deposition coefficient of water vapor on ice crystals is between 0.05 and 0.1, and (4) the "characteristic" updraft diagnosed from the turbulence kinetic energy parameterization in CAM5 agrees reasonably well with the observations when the upper limit of 0.2 m/s on updrafts currently imposed in CAM5 is removed.

  7. A 2600-year history of floods in the Bernese Alps, Switzerland: frequencies, mechanisms and climate forcing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schulte, L.; Peña, J. C.; Carvalho, F.; Schmidt, T.; Julià, R.; Llorca, J.; Veit, H.

    2015-07-01

    A 2600-year long composite palaeoflood record is reconstructed from high-resolution delta plain sediments of the Hasli-Aare floodplain on the northern slope of the Swiss Alps. Natural proxies compiled from sedimentary, geochemical and geomorphological data were calibrated by textual and factual sources and instrumental data. No fewer than 12 of the 14 historically recorded extreme events between 1480 and the termination of the Hasli-Aare river channel correction in 1875 were also identified by coarse-grained flood layers, log(Zr / Ti) peaks and factor 1 anomalies. Geomorphological, historical and instrumental data provide evidence for flood damage intensities and discharge estimations of severe and catastrophic historical floods. Spectral analysis of the geochemical and documentary flood series and several climate proxies (TSI, δ18O, tree-rings, NAO, SNAO) identify similar periodicities of around 60, 80, 100, 120 and 200 years during the last millennia, indicating the influence of the North Atlantic circulation and solar forcing on alpine flood dynamics. The composite floodplain record illustrates that periods of organic soil formation and deposition of phyllosilicates (from the medium high catchment area) match those of total solar irradiance maxima, suggesting reduced flood activity during warmer climate pulses. Aggradation with multiple sets of flood layers with increased contribution of siliciclasts from the highest catchment area (plutonic bedrock) (e.g. 1300-1350, 1420-1480, 1550-1620, 1650-1720 and 1811-1851 cal yr AD) occurred predominantly during periods with reduced solar irradiance, lower δ18O anomalies, cooler summer temperatures and phases of drier spring climate in the Alps. Increased water storage by glaciers, snow cover and snow patches susceptible to melting processes associated with rainfall episodes and abrupt rises in temperature substantially increased surface runoff on slopes and discharges of alpine rivers. This interpretation is in

  8. Sub-Saharan Northern African climate at the end of the twenty-first century: forcing factors and climate change processes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Patricola, C.M. [Cornell University, Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Ithaca, NY (United States); Texas A and M University, Department of Atmospheric Sciences, College Station, TX (United States); Cook, K.H. [The University of Texas at Austin, Department of Geological Sciences, Jackson School of Geosciences, Austin, TX (United States)

    2011-09-15

    A regional climate model, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model, is forced with increased atmospheric CO{sub 2} and anomalous SSTs and lateral boundary conditions derived from nine coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models to produce an ensemble set of nine future climate simulations for northern Africa at the end of the twenty-first century. A well validated control simulation, agreement among ensemble members, and a physical understanding of the future climate change enhance confidence in the predictions. The regional model ensembles produce consistent precipitation projections over much of northern tropical Africa. A moisture budget analysis is used to identify the circulation changes that support future precipitation anomalies. The projected midsummer drought over the Guinean Coast region is related partly to weakened monsoon flow. Since the rainfall maximum demonstrates a southward bias in the control simulation in July-August, this may be indicative of future summer drying over the Sahel. Wetter conditions in late summer over the Sahel are associated with enhanced moisture transport by the West African westerly jet, a strengthening of the jet itself, and moisture transport from the Mediterranean. Severe drought in East Africa during August and September is accompanied by a weakened Indian monsoon and Somali jet. Simulations with projected and idealized SST forcing suggest that overall SST warming in part supports this regional model ensemble agreement, although changes in SST gradients are important over West Africa in spring and fall. Simulations which isolate the role of individual climate forcings suggest that the spatial distribution of the rainfall predictions is controlled by the anomalous SST and lateral boundary conditions, while CO{sub 2} forcing within the regional model domain plays an important secondary role and generally produces wetter conditions. (orig.)

  9. Control of shortwave radiation parameterization on tropical climate SST-forced simulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crétat, Julien; Masson, Sébastien; Berthet, Sarah; Samson, Guillaume; Terray, Pascal; Dudhia, Jimy; Pinsard, Françoise; Hourdin, Christophe

    2016-09-01

    SST-forced tropical-channel simulations are used to quantify the control of shortwave (SW) parameterization on the mean tropical climate compared to other major model settings (convection, boundary layer turbulence, vertical and horizontal resolutions), and to pinpoint the physical mechanisms whereby this control manifests. Analyses focus on the spatial distribution and magnitude of the net SW radiation budget at the surface (SWnet_SFC), latent heat fluxes, and rainfall at the annual timescale. The model skill and sensitivity to the tested settings are quantified relative to observations and using an ensemble approach. Persistent biases include overestimated SWnet_SFC and too intense hydrological cycle. However, model skill is mainly controlled by SW parameterization, especially the magnitude of SWnet_SFC and rainfall and both the spatial distribution and magnitude of latent heat fluxes over ocean. On the other hand, the spatial distribution of continental rainfall (SWnet_SFC) is mainly influenced by convection parameterization and horizontal resolution (boundary layer parameterization and orography). Physical understanding of the control of SW parameterization is addressed by analyzing the thermal structure of the atmosphere and conducting sensitivity experiments to O3 absorption and SW scattering coefficient. SW parameterization shapes the stability of the atmosphere in two different ways according to whether surface is coupled to atmosphere or not, while O3 absorption has minor effects in our simulations. Over SST-prescribed regions, increasing the amount of SW absorption warms the atmosphere only because surface temperatures are fixed, resulting in increased atmospheric stability. Over land-atmosphere coupled regions, increasing SW absorption warms both atmospheric and surface temperatures, leading to a shift towards a warmer state and a more intense hydrological cycle. This turns in reversal model behavior between land and sea points, with the SW scheme that

  10. Full non-linear treatment of the global thermospheric wind system. I - Mathematical method and analysis of forces. II - Results and comparison with observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blum, P. W.; Harris, I.

    1975-01-01

    The equations of horizontal motion of the neutral atmosphere between 120 and 500 km are integrated with the inclusion of all nonlinear terms of the convective derivative and the viscous forces due to vertical and horizontal velocity gradients. Empirical models of the distribution of neutral and charged particles are assumed to be known. The model of velocities developed is a steady state model. In Part I the mathematical method used in the integration of the Navier-Stokes equations is described and the various forces are analyzed. Results of the method given in Part I are presented with comparison with previous calculations and observations of upper atmospheric winds. Conclusions are that nonlinear effects are only significant in the equatorial region, especially at solstice conditions and that nonlinear effects do not produce any superrotation.

  11. Efficient modelling of particle collisions using a non-linear viscoelastic contact force

    CERN Document Server

    Ray, Shouryya; Fröhlich, Jochen

    2015-01-01

    In this paper the normal collision of spherical particles is investigated. The particle interaction is modelled in a macroscopic way using the Hertzian contact force with additional linear damping. The goal of the work is to develop an efficient approximate solution of sufficient accuracy for this problem which can be used in soft-sphere collision models for Discrete Element Methods and for particle transport in viscous fluids. First, by the choice of appropriate units, the number of governing parameters of the collision process is reduced to one, thus providing a dimensionless parameter that characterizes all such collisions up to dynamic similitude. It is a simple combination of known material parameters as well as initial conditions. A rigorous calculation of the collision time and restitution coefficient from the governing equations, in the form of a series expansion in this parameter is provided. Such a first principles calculation is particularly interesting from a theoretical perspective. Since the gov...

  12. Tectonics, orbital forcing, global climate change, and human evolution in Africa: introduction to the African paleoclimate special volume.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maslin, Mark A; Christensen, Beth

    2007-11-01

    The late Cenozoic climate of Africa is a critical component for understanding human evolution. African climate is controlled by major tectonic changes, global climate transitions, and local variations in orbital forcing. We introduce the special African Paleoclimate Issue of the Journal of Human Evolution by providing a background for and synthesis of the latest work relating to the environmental context for human evolution. Records presented in this special issue suggest that the regional tectonics, appearance of C(4) plants in East Africa, and late Cenozoic global cooling combined to produce a long-term drying trend in East Africa. Of particular importance is the uplift associated with the East African Rift Valley formation, which altered wind flow patterns from a more zonal to more meridinal direction. Results in this volume suggest a marked difference in the climate history of southern and eastern Africa, though both are clearly influenced by the major global climate thresholds crossed in the last 3 million years. Papers in this volume present lake, speleothem, and marine paleoclimate records showing that the East African long-term drying trend is punctuated by episodes of short, alternating periods of extreme wetness and aridity. These periods of extreme climate variability are characterized by the precession-forced appearance and disappearance of large, deep lakes in the East African Rift Valley and paralleled by low and high wind-driven dust loads reaching the adjacent ocean basins. Dating of these records show that over the last 3 million years such periods only occur at the times of major global climatic transitions, such as the intensification of Northern Hemisphere Glaciation (2.7-2.5 Ma), intensification of the Walker Circulation (1.9-1.7 Ma), and the Mid-Pleistocene Revolution (1-0.7 Ma). Authors in this volume suggest this onset occurs as high latitude forcing in both Hemispheres compresses the Intertropical Convergence Zone so that East Africa

  13. Critical Time Span and Nonlinear Action Structure of Climatic Atmosphere and Ocean%气候大气和海洋的临界时间跨度与非线性作用结构

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    王志仁; 吴德星; 陈大可; 吴辉碇; 宋学家; 张占海

    2002-01-01

    研究了气候海洋与大气的临界时间跨度及其非线性作用的大致结构.与预报的空间分辩率及系统的非线性强度相联系,气候大气和海洋的临界时间跨度可反映系统可预报的相对时间尺度.对于具有同样空间特征尺度的大气和海洋,海洋的最小临界时间跨度约是大气的9倍(可达数日至数十日).一般(外源变化缓慢的)气候海洋与大气的一阶非线性越强,其临界时间跨度越小.气候海洋与大气非线性作用的大致结构是:通常与科里奥利力对流体运动的规范作用(如地转运动)有关,非线性作用随纬度增加而减弱.距平流场的切变结构及其沿经向与纬向上强度的比较直接改变气候大气和海洋的非线性作用(比如,向东的距平环流强度与经向环流强度相当时,非线性作用最强),较强的外部驱动(风应力和压强梯度力)使非线性作用加大等等.%This paper studies the critical time span and the approximate nonlinear action structure of climatic atmosphere and ocean. The critical time span of the climatic atmosphere and ocean, which is related to the spatial resolution required, the strength of nonlinear action, and the calculation exactness, may represent the relative temporal scale of predictability. As far as the same characteristic spatial scale is concerned, the minimum critical time span of the ocean is about 9 times of that of atmosphere, several days or more. Usually,the stronger the nonlinear action, the shorter the critical time span with smooth changes of external forces.The approximate structure of nonlinear action of climatic atmosphere and ocean is: the nonlinear action decreases usually with increasing latitude, which is related to the role of the Coriolis force in fluid motion (forming geostrophic current); the nonlinear action changes with the anomalous cyclonic or anticyclonic circulation shear, for instance, when the strength of anomalous eastward zonal circulation

  14. A first overview of an ensemble of regional climate models over South America forced with 1989-2008 ERAinterim reanalysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sánchez, Enrique; Berbery, Hugo; Samuelsson, Manuel De Castro (1), Roberto García.-Ochoa (1), Patrick; Jacob, Armelle Reca C.-Remedio (4), Daniela; Rojas, Maisa; Menéndez, Anna Sorensson (6, 1), Claudio; Porfirio Rocha, Rosmeri; Solman, Silvina; Chou, Jose Marengo (8), Sin Chan; (9), Hervé Le Treut, Laurent Li

    2010-05-01

    The EU FP7 CLARIS LPB project (A Europe-South America Network for Climate Change Assessment and Impact Studies in La Plata Basin, 2008-2012) aims at predicting the climate change impact on hydroclimate and extreme events over La Plata Basin. As the first step to reach this goal, a group of regional climate models (RCMs) forced by 1989-2008 ERAinterim reanalysis have simulated the South American continent with 50km of horizontal resolution. The domains of the models are large enough to include the one proposed by CORDEX (A COordinated Regional climate Downscaling EXperiment). One of the most challenging climatic features of the South American continent is the large uncertainties shown by the global climate model simulations included in the last IPCC (2007). Within this regional climate model intercomparison exercise, the analysis of the spread in their results, related to their physical parameterizations, could be a key aspect that may help to understand the global models'shortcomings. In a first overview, seasonal mean temperature and precipitation are compared for each RCM available against CRU observations to evaluate their capability to describe the main climatic features of the continent. Some metrics were developed for a more specific analysis of the main atmospheric processes involved in the region, with special attention to the hydrological cycle and extreme events. This validation analysis of present climate period is also an essential first step issue needed for the following modelling studies of future climatic conditions that are going to be performed as a second step inside the CLARIS-LPB project.

  15. A Modeling Study of the Effects of Direct Radiative Forcing Due to Carbonaceous Aerosol on the Climate in East Asia

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    ZHANG Hua; WANG Zhili; GUO Pinwen; WANG Zaizhi

    2009-01-01

    The study investigated the effects of global direct radiative forcing due to carbonaceous aerosol on the climate in East Asia, using the CAM3 developed by NCAR. The results showed that carbonaceous aerosols cause negative forcing at the top of the atmosphere (TOA) and surface under clear sky conditions, but positive forcing at the TOA and weak negative forcing at the surface under all sky conditions. Hence, clouds could change the sign of the direct radiative forcing at the TOA, and weaken the forcing at the surface. Carbonaceous aerosols have distinct effects on the summer climate in East Asia. In southern China and India, it caused the surface temperature to increase, but the total cloud cover and precipitation to decrease. However, the opposite effects are caused for most of northern China and Bangladesh. Given the changes in temperature, vertical velocity, and surface streamflow caused by carbonaceous aerosol in this simulation, carbonaceous aerosol could also induce summer precipitation to decrease in southern China but increase in northern China.

  16. Do Quercus ilex woodlands undergo abrupt non-linear functional changes in response to human disturbance along a climatic gradient?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bochet, Esther; García-Fayos, Patricio; José Molina, Maria; Moreno de las Heras, Mariano; Espigares, Tíscar; Nicolau, Jose Manuel; Monleon, Vicente

    2017-04-01

    Theoretical models predict that drylands are particularly prone to suffer critical transitions with abrupt non-linear changes in their structure and functions as a result of the existing complex interactions between climatic fluctuations and human disturbances. However, so far, few studies provide empirical data to validate these models. We aim at determining how holm oak (Quercus ilex) woodlands undergo changes in their functions in response to human disturbance along an aridity gradient (from semi-arid to sub-humid conditions), in eastern Spain. For that purpose, we used (a) remote-sensing estimations of precipitation-use-efficiency (PUE) from enhanced vegetation index (EVI) observations performed in 231x231 m plots of the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS); (b) biological and chemical soil parameter determinations (extracellular soil enzyme activity, soil respiration, nutrient cycling processes) from soil sampled in the same plots; (c) vegetation parameter determinations (ratio of functional groups) from vegetation surveys performed in the same plots. We analyzed and compared the shape of the functional change (in terms of PUE and soil and vegetation parameters) in response to human disturbance intensity for our holm oak sites along the aridity gradient. Overall, our results evidenced important differences in the shape of the functional change in response to human disturbance between climatic conditions. Semi-arid areas experienced a more accelerated non-linear decrease with an increasing disturbance intensity than sub-humid ones. The proportion of functional groups (herbaceous vs. woody cover) played a relevant role in the shape of the functional response of the holm oak sites to human disturbance.

  17. Albedo changes, Milankovitch forcing, and late quaternary climate changes in the central Andes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kull, C.; Grosjean, M. [Swiss Federal Inst. of Tech., Zurich (Switzerland). Dept. of Geography

    1998-11-01

    Late quaternary humidity changes resulted in substantial modifications of the land surface characteristics in the Altiplano of the Atacama desert, central Andes. Reconstructions of surface albedo, top-of-atmosphere (TOA) albedo, and shortwave net radiation in the Andes of northern Chile for 20,14,10,7 and 0 ka suggest that surface and TOA albedo increased substantially during periods of relatively humid environmental conditions (i.e., with large palaeolakes, glaciers and dense vegetation). The decrease of summer shortwave net radiation and seasonality during the late-glacial/early Holocene humid phase (14 to 10 ka) due to Earth`s surface and atmospheric characteristics added to the effect of orbitally driven negative deviations of southern Hemisphere austral summer insolation and minimum seasonality at 20 S. Therefore, in situ radiative forcing is, in contrast to the Northern Hemisphere tropics, not a suitable explanation for enhanced convective precipitation and, ultimately, humid climatic conditions. Our results suggest that late Quaternary humidity changes on the Altiplano reflect a collective response to (1) environmental changes in the source area of the moisture (e.g., reexpansion of the rain forest and increased release of latent heat over Amazonia and the Chaco, warm sea surface temperatures in the E Pacific) and, (2) large-scale circulation patterns and wave structures in the upper troposphere (strength and position of the Bolivian high, divergent flow stimulating convection over the Altiplano), or that they even reflect a response to (3) interhemispherical teleconnections. (orig.) With 5 figs., 2 tabs., 45 refs.

  18. A modeling study of effective radiative forcing and climate response due to increased methane concentration

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bing Xie

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available An atmospheric general circulation model BCC_AGCM2.0 and observation data from ARIS were used to calculate the effective radiative forcing (ERF due to increased methane concentration since pre-industrial times and its impacts on climate. The ERF of methane from 1750 to 2011 was 0.46 W m−2 by taking it as a well-mixed greenhouse gas, and the inhomogeneity of methane increased its ERF by about 0.02 W m−2. The change of methane concentration since pre-industrial led to an increase of 0.31 °C in global mean surface air temperature and 0.02 mm d−1 in global mean precipitation. The warming was prominent over the middle and high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere (with a maximum increase exceeding 1.4 °C. The precipitation notably increased (maximum increase of 1.8 mm d−1 over the ocean between 10°N and 20°N and significantly decreased (maximum decrease >–0.6 mm d−1 between 10°S and 10°N. These changes caused a northward movement of precipitation cell in the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ. Cloud cover significantly increased (by approximately 4% in the high latitudes in both hemispheres, and sharply decreased (by approximately 3% in tropical areas.

  19. Experimental evidence of dynamic re-organization of evolving landscapes under changing climatic forcing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Singh, Arvind; Tejedor, Alejandro; Zaliapin, Ilya; Reinhardt, Liam; Foufoula-Georgiou, Efi

    2015-04-01

    The aim of this study is to better understand the dynamic re-organization of an evolving landscape under a scenario of changing climatic forcing for improving our knowledge of geomorphic transport laws under transient conditions and developing predictive models of landscape response to external perturbations. Real landscape observations for long-term analysis are limited and to this end a high resolution controlled laboratory experiment was conducted at the St. Anthony Falls laboratory at the University of Minnesota. Elevation data were collected at temporal resolution of 5 mins and spatial resolution of 0.5 mm as the landscape approached steady state (constant uplift and precipitation rate) and in the transient state (under the same uplift and 5x precipitation). The results reveal rapid topographic re-organization under a five-fold precipitation increase with the fluvial regime expanding into the previously debris dominated regime, accelerated erosion happening at hillslope scales, and rivers shifting from an erosion-limited to a transport-limited regime. From a connectivity and clustering analysis of the erosional and depositional events, we demonstrate the strikingly different spatial patterns of landscape evolution under steady-state (SS) and transient-state (TS), even when the time under SS is "stretched" compared to that under TS such as to match the total volume and PDF of erosional and depositional amounts. We quantify the spatial coupling of hillslopes and channels and demonstrate that hillslopes lead and channels follow in re-organizing the whole landscape under such an amplified precipitation regime.

  20. Accelerated greenhouse gases versus slow insolation forcing induced climate changes in southern South America since the Mid-Holocene

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berman, Ana Laura; Silvestri, Gabriel E.; Rojas, Maisa; Tonello, Marcela S.

    2017-01-01

    This paper is a pioneering analysis of past climates in southern South America combining multiproxy reconstructions and the state-of-the-art CMIP5/PMIP3 paleoclimatic models to investigate the time evolution of regional climatic conditions from the Mid-Holocene (MH) to the present. This analysis allows a comparison between the impact of the long term climate variations associated with insolation changes and the more recent effects of anthropogenic forcing on the region. The PMIP3 multimodel experiments suggest that changes in precipitation over almost all southern South America between MH and pre-industrial (PI) times due to insolation variations are significantly larger than those between PI and the present, which are due to changes in greenhouse gas concentrations. Anthropogenic forcing has been particularly intense over western Patagonia inducing reduction of precipitation in summer, autumn and winter as a consequence of progressively weaker westerly winds over the region, which have moved further poleward, between ca. 35-55°S and have become stronger south of about 50°S. Orbital variations between the MH to the PI period increased insolation over southern South America during summer and autumn inducing warmer conditions in the PI, accentuated by the effect of anthropogenic forcing during the last century. On the other hand, changes in orbital parameters from the MH to the PI period reduced insolation during winter and spring inducing colder conditions, which have been reversed by the anthropogenic forcing.

  1. Nonlinear gravitational self-force: Second-order equation of motion

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pound, Adam

    2017-05-01

    When a small, uncharged, compact object is immersed in an external background spacetime, at zeroth order in its mass, it moves as a test particle in the background. At linear order, its own gravitational field alters the geometry around it, and it moves instead as a test particle in a certain effective metric satisfying the linearized vacuum Einstein equation. In the letter [Phys. Rev. Lett. 109, 051101 (2012), 10.1103/PhysRevLett.109.051101], using a method of matched asymptotic expansions, I showed that the same statement holds true at second order: if the object's leading-order spin and quadrupole moment vanish, then through second order in its mass, it moves on a geodesic of a certain smooth, locally causal vacuum metric defined in its local neighborhood. Here I present the complete details of the derivation of that result. In addition, I extend the result, which had previously been derived in gauges smoothly related to Lorenz, to a class of highly regular gauges that should be optimal for numerical self-force computations.

  2. Magneto-frictional Modeling of Coronal Nonlinear Force-free Fields. I. Testing with Analytic Solutions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guo, Y.; Xia, C.; Keppens, R.; Valori, G.

    2016-09-01

    We report our implementation of the magneto-frictional method in the Message Passing Interface Adaptive Mesh Refinement Versatile Advection Code (MPI-AMRVAC). The method aims at applications where local adaptive mesh refinement (AMR) is essential to make follow-up dynamical modeling affordable. We quantify its performance in both domain-decomposed uniform grids and block-adaptive AMR computations, using all frequently employed force-free, divergence-free, and other vector comparison metrics. As test cases, we revisit the semi-analytic solution of Low and Lou in both Cartesian and spherical geometries, along with the topologically challenging Titov-Démoulin model. We compare different combinations of spatial and temporal discretizations, and find that the fourth-order central difference with a local Lax-Friedrichs dissipation term in a single-step marching scheme is an optimal combination. The initial condition is provided by the potential field, which is the potential field source surface model in spherical geometry. Various boundary conditions are adopted, ranging from fully prescribed cases where all boundaries are assigned with the semi-analytic models, to solar-like cases where only the magnetic field at the bottom is known. Our results demonstrate that all the metrics compare favorably to previous works in both Cartesian and spherical coordinates. Cases with several AMR levels perform in accordance with their effective resolutions. The magneto-frictional method in MPI-AMRVAC allows us to model a region of interest with high spatial resolution and large field of view simultaneously, as required by observation-constrained extrapolations using vector data provided with modern instruments. The applications of the magneto-frictional method to observations are shown in an accompanying paper.

  3. Clouds, aerosols and biogeochemical cycles. Risks of non-linear climate change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Van Ham, J.; Van Beers, R.J.; Builtjes, P.J.H.; Roemer, M.G.M. [TNO Institute of Environmental Sciences, Delft (Netherlands); Koennen, G.P. [Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute KNMI, De Bilt (Netherlands); Oerlemans, J. [Institute for Meteorological and Atmospheric Research, University of Utrecht, Utrecht (Netherlands)

    1995-12-31

    Part of the results of an investigation into risks for climate change, which are presently not adequately covered in General Circulation Models, is described. The investigation included the interaction with biogeochemical cycles, the effects of clouds and aerosols, ice flow instability, albedo instability and modified ocean circulation. In this paper our results for clouds and aerosols and for bio-geochemical cycles are reported. 1 tab., 21 refs.

  4. Global Climate Forcing from Albedo Change Caused by Large-scale Deforestation and Reforestation: Quantification and Attribution of Geographic Variation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jiao, Tong; Williams, Christopher A.; Ghimire, Bardan; Masek, Jeffrey; Gao, Feng; Schaaf, Crystal

    2017-01-01

    Large-scale deforestation and reforestation have contributed substantially to historical and contemporary global climate change in part through albedo-induced radiative forcing, with meaningful implications for forest management aiming to mitigate climate change. Associated warming or cooling varies widely across the globe due to a range of factors including forest type, snow cover, and insolation, but resulting geographic variation remain spoorly described and has been largely based on model assessments. This study provides an observation-based approach to quantify local and global radiative forcings from large-scale deforestation and reforestation and further examines mechanisms that result in the spatial heterogeneity of radiative forcing. We incorporate a new spatially and temporally explicit land cover-specific albedo product derived from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer with a historical land use data set (Land Use Harmonization product). Spatial variation in radiative forcing was attributed to four mechanisms, including the change in snow-covered albedo, change in snow-free albedo, snow cover fraction, and incoming solar radiation. We find an albedo-only radiative forcing (RF) of -0.819 W m(exp -2) if year 2000 forests were completely deforested and converted to croplands. Albedo RF from global reforestation of present-day croplands to recover year 1700 forests is estimated to be 0.161 W m)exp -2). Snow-cover fraction is identified as the primary factor in determining the spatial variation of radiative forcing in winter, while the magnitude of the change in snow-free albedo is the primary factor determining variations in summertime RF. Findings reinforce the notion that, for conifers at the snowier high latitudes, albedo RF diminishes the warming from forest loss and the cooling from forest gain more so than for other forest types, latitudes, and climate settings.

  5. Nonlinear Dynamic Analysis of an Inclined Timoshenko Beam Subjected to a Moving Mass/Force with Beam’s Weight Included

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ahmad Mamandi

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available In this study, the nonlinear vibrations analysis of an inclined pinned-pinned self-weight Timoshenko beam made of linear, homogenous and isotropic material with a constant cross section and finite length subjected to a traveling mass/force with constant velocity is investigated. The nonlinear coupled partial differential equations of motion for the rotation of warped cross section, longitudinal and transverse displacements are derived using the Hamilton's principle. These nonlinear coupled PDEs are solved by applying the Galerkin's method to obtain dynamic responses of the beam. The dynamic magnification factor and normalized time histories of mid-point of the beam are obtained for various load velocity ratios and the outcome results have been compared to the results with those obtained from linear solution. The influence of the large deflections caused by a stretching effect due to the beam's fixed ends is captured. It was seen that existence of quadratic-cubic nonlinear terms in the nonlinear governing coupled PDEs of motion causes stiffening (hardening behavior of the dynamic responses of the self-weight beam under the act of a traveling mass as well as equivalent concentrated moving force. Furthermore, in a case where the object leaves the beam, its planar motion path is derived and the targeting accuracy is investigated and compared with those from the rigid solution assumption.

  6. Generation of Nonlinear Force Driven Blocks from Skin Layer Interaction of Petawatt-Picosecond Laser Pulses for ICF

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Heinrich Hora; K. Jungwirth; B. Kralikova; J. Kraska; L. Laska; Liu Hong; G.H. Miley; P. Parys; Peng Hansheng; M. Pfeifer; K. Rohlena; Cang Yu; J. Skala; Z. Skladanowski; L. Torrisi; J. Ullschmied; J. Wolowski; Zhang Weiyan; He Xiantu; Zhang Jie; F. Osman; J. Badziak; F.P. Boody; S. Gammino; R. H(o)pfl

    2004-01-01

    The discovery of the essential difference of maximum ion energy for TW-ps laser plasma interaction compared with the 100 ns laser pulses [1] led to the theory of a skin layer model [2] where the control of prepulses suppressed the usual relativistic self-focusing. The subsequent generation of two nonlinear force driven blocks has been demonstrated experimentally and in extensive numerical studies where one block moves against the laser light and the other block into the irradiated target. These blocks of nearly solid state density DT plasma correspond to ion beam current densities [3] exceeding 1010 A/cm2 where the ion velocity can be chosen up to highly relativistic values. Using the results of the expected ignition of DT fuel by light ion beams, a selfsustained fusion reaction front may be generated even into uncompressed solid DT fuel similar to the Nuckolls-Wood [4] scheme where 10 kJ laser pulses produce 100 MJ fusion energy. This new and simplified scheme of laser-ICF needs and optimisation of the involved parameters.

  7. Structure and Stability of Magnetic Fields in Solar Active Region12192 Based on Nonlinear Force-Free Field Modeling

    CERN Document Server

    Inoue, S; Kusano, K

    2016-01-01

    We analyze a three-dimensional (3D) magnetic structure and its stability in large solar active region(AR) 12192, using the 3D coronal magnetic field constructed under a nonlinear force-free field (NLFFF) approximation. In particular, we focus on the magnetic structure that produced an X3.1-class flare which is one of the X-class flares observed in AR 12192. According to our analysis, the AR contains multiple-flux-tube system, {\\it e.g.}, a large flux tube, both of whose footpoints are anchored to the large bipole field, under which other tubes exist close to a polarity inversion line (PIL). These various flux tubes of different sizes and shapes coexist there. In particular, the later are embedded along the PIL, which produces a favorable shape for the tether-cutting reconnection and is related to the X-class solar flare. We further found that most of magnetic twists are not released even after the flare, which is consistent with the fact that no observational evidence for major eruptions was found. On the oth...

  8. Formation and Eruption of an Active Region Sigmoid: I. Study by Nonlinear Force-Free Field Modeling

    CERN Document Server

    Jiang, Chaowei; Feng, Xueshang; Hu, Qiang

    2013-01-01

    We present a magnetic analysis of the formation and eruption of an active region (AR) sigmoid in AR 11283 from 2011 September 4 to 6. To follow the quasi-static evolution of the coronal magnetic field, we reconstruct a time sequence of static fields using a recently developed nonlinear force-free field model constrained by the SDO/HMI vector magnetograms. A detailed analysis of the fields compared with the SDO/AIA observations suggests the following scenario for the evolution of the region. Initially, a new bipole emerges into the negative polarity of a pre-existing bipolar AR, forming a null point topology between the two flux systems. A weakly twisted flux rope (FR) is then built up slowly in the embedded core region, largely through flux-cancellation photospheric reconnections, forming a bald patch separatrix surface (BPSS) separating the FR from its ambient field. The FR grows gradually until its axis runs into a torus instability (TI) domain near the end of the third day, and the BPSS also develops a ful...

  9. Climatic forcing before, during, and after the 8.2 Kyr B.P. global cooling event

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Devendra Lal; William G Large; Stephan G Walker

    2007-06-01

    This paper attempts at full characterization of the unique global 8.2Kyr B.P. cooling event. Significant atmospheric cooling started during 9.5–8.5Kyr B.P. when the Sun was extremely quiet during three periods of ∼50–100 years. The flood of melt water in the N. Atlantic from glacial lakes during the demise of the Laurentide ice sheet, starting at ∼8.5Kyr B.P., adds to the atmospheric cooling. Climatic forcing events occurred at 8.5Kyr B.P., at 8.2Kyr B.P. and finally at 8.06Kyr B.P., leading to concurrent increases or decreases in the atmospheric 14C levels, completely consistent with the climatic forcing proposed here.

  10. The role of forcing and internal dynamics in explaining the ''Medieval Climate Anomaly''

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Goosse, Hugues; Crespin, Elisabeth; Dubinkina, Svetlana; Loutre, Marie-France; Sallaz-Damaz, Yoann [Universite Catholique de Louvain, Earth and Life Institute, Georges Lemaitre Centre for Earth and Climate Research, Louvain-la-Neuve (Belgium); Mann, Michael E. [Pennsylvania State University, Department of Meteorology and Earth and Environmental Systems Institute, University Park, PA (United States); Renssen, Hans [Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, Section Climate Change and Landscape Dynamics, Department of Earth Sciences, Amsterdam (Netherlands); Shindell, Drew [NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York City, NY (United States)

    2012-12-15

    Proxy reconstructions suggest that peak global temperature during the past warm interval known as the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA, roughly 950-1250 AD) has been exceeded only during the most recent decades. To better understand the origin of this warm period, we use model simulations constrained by data assimilation establishing the spatial pattern of temperature changes that is most consistent with forcing estimates, model physics and the empirical information contained in paleoclimate proxy records. These numerical experiments demonstrate that the reconstructed spatial temperature pattern of the MCA can be explained by a simple thermodynamical response of the climate system to relatively weak changes in radiative forcing combined with a modification of the atmospheric circulation, displaying some similarities with the positive phase of the so-called Arctic Oscillation, and with northward shifts in the position of the Gulf Stream and Kuroshio currents. The mechanisms underlying the MCA are thus quite different from anthropogenic mechanisms responsible for modern global warming. (orig.)

  11. Radiative forcing and climate metrics for ozone precursor emissions: the impact of multi-model averaging

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. R. MacIntosh

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available Multi-model ensembles are frequently used to assess understanding of the response of ozone and methane lifetime to changes in emissions of ozone precursors such as NOx, VOC and CO. When these ozone changes are used to calculate radiative forcing (RF (and climate metrics such as the global warming potential (GWP and global temperature potential (GTP there is a methodological choice, determined partly by the available computing resources, as to whether the mean ozone (and methane lifetime changes are input to the radiation code, or whether each model's ozone and methane changes are used as input, with the average RF computed from the individual model RFs. We use data from the Task Force on Hemispheric Transport of Air Pollution Source-Receptor global chemical transport model ensemble to assess the impact of this choice for emission changes in 4 regions (East Asia, Europe, North America and South Asia. We conclude that using the multi-model mean ozone and methane responses is accurate for calculating the mean RF, with differences up to 0.6% for CO, 0.7% for VOC and 2% for NOx. Differences of up to 60% for NOx 7% for VOC and 3% for CO are introduced into the 20 year GWP as a result of the exponential decay terms, with similar values for the 20 years GTP. However, estimates of the SD calculated from the ensemble-mean input fields (where the SD at each point on the model grid is added to or subtracted from the mean field are almost always substantially larger in RF, GWP and GTP metrics than the true SD, and can be larger than the model range for short-lived ozone RF, and for the 20 and 100 year GWP and 100 year GTP. We find that the effect is generally most marked for the case of NOx emissions, where the net effect is a smaller residual of terms of opposing signs. For example, the SD for the 20 year GWP is two to three times larger using the ensemble-mean fields than using the individual models to calculate the RF. Hence, while the average of multi

  12. Radiative forcing and climate metrics for ozone precursor emissions: the impact of multi-model averaging

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. R. MacIntosh

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available Multi-model ensembles are frequently used to assess understanding of the response of ozone and methane lifetime to changes in emissions of ozone precursors such as NOx, VOCs (volatile organic compounds and CO. When these ozone changes are used to calculate radiative forcing (RF (and climate metrics such as the global warming potential (GWP and global temperature-change potential (GTP there is a methodological choice, determined partly by the available computing resources, as to whether the mean ozone (and methane concentration changes are input to the radiation code, or whether each model's ozone and methane changes are used as input, with the average RF computed from the individual model RFs. We use data from the Task Force on Hemispheric Transport of Air Pollution source–receptor global chemical transport model ensemble to assess the impact of this choice for emission changes in four regions (East Asia, Europe, North America and South Asia. We conclude that using the multi-model mean ozone and methane responses is accurate for calculating the mean RF, with differences up to 0.6% for CO, 0.7% for VOCs and 2% for NOx. Differences of up to 60% for NOx 7% for VOCs and 3% for CO are introduced into the 20 year GWP. The differences for the 20 year GTP are smaller than for the GWP for NOx, and similar for the other species. However, estimates of the standard deviation calculated from the ensemble-mean input fields (where the standard deviation at each point on the model grid is added to or subtracted from the mean field are almost always substantially larger in RF, GWP and GTP metrics than the true standard deviation, and can be larger than the model range for short-lived ozone RF, and for the 20 and 100 year GWP and 100 year GTP. The order of averaging has most impact on the metrics for NOx, as the net values for these quantities is the residual of the sum of terms of opposing signs. For example, the standard deviation for the 20 year GWP is 2–3

  13. Climatic and Oceanic Forcing of Glacier Mass Balance across Svalbard in Recent Decades and Implications for Future Glacier Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Möller, M.; Lux, J. D.; Schneider, C.

    2016-12-01

    The Arctic archipelago Svalbard is situated at the intersection between cold northern polar air masses and ocean waters and the influences of the West Spitsbergen Current, which is the major warm-water conveyor to the Arctic system. Studying the glacier response on Svalbard to the variability in climatic and oceanic forcing therefore promises to yield important insights into the causal chains that connect the response of Arctic land-ice to both, the principle variability of Arctic climate and ocean conditions and climate change. The glaciers, ice caps and ice fields that cover most of the Svalbard archipelago experienced significant changes over the past decades. However, recent glacier mass balance and actual evolution at different locations of the archipelago varies substantially. Our contribution presents an analysis of the influences potential climate and ocean-related drivers have on glacier mass balance on Svalbard. Here, frequency anomalies in weather type occurrence and anomalies in the spatial patterns of sea ice and sea surface temperature are considered. They are correlated to time series of multi-decadal seasonal mass-balance anomalies of three glaciers on the archipelago. It is shown that both, type and strength of the influences of the different climatic and oceanic drivers vary substantially across the archipelago. The topographic location with respect to large-scale relief and prevailing wind direction plays an important governing role. Positive and negative seasonal mass balance anomalies were found to be significantly correlated with both frequency anomalies of certain weather types and anomalies of patterns in sea ice and sea surface temperature. In the light of expectable, projected future evolutions of the considered driving forces and of the obtained relations between driving forces and glacier mass balance it is concluded in which qualitative way glacier change on Svalbard might be influenced by atmospheric and oceanic conditions in the

  14. Mid-Late Holocene Arroyo Stratigraphy in Southern Utah; Balance between Climate Forcing and Geomorphic Thresholds

    Science.gov (United States)

    Riley, K. E.; Rittenour, T. M.

    2015-12-01

    Historic arroyo entrenchment at the turn of the 20th century signified a rapid and widespread change in stream dynamics throughout much of the southwest U.S.A.. Arroyo walls along modern channels expose multiple unconformity-bound sediment packages that record mid-to-late Holocene arroyo cut-fill dynamics. Many of these different-aged periods of aggradation appear to have reached a similar tread height through time, suggesting that a 'geomorphic threshold' may partially control end-member stream grade and the timing of channel entrenchment. However, observations of near-synchronous regional cut-fill events support an alternative hypothesis that climate is a primary control of arroyo dynamics. In order to test the role of allogenic forcing versus autogenic processes on arroyo cut-fill dynamics, three datasets were constructed and analyzed from Johnson Wash (JW), a drainage containing a ~40 km long arroyo in the Grand Staircase region of the Colorado Plateau in south-central Utah. The chronostratigraphy of arroyo cut-fill events was reconstructed using a combination of field observations and age control from radiocarbon (n=57) and optically stimulated luminescence dating (OSL; n=27) collected from 15 stratigraphic sections that bracket episodes of incision and characterize alluvial-fill packages. These data are compared to regional cut-fill chronologies from other arroyo systems. Temporal and spatial variability in catchment averaged erosion rates was quantified using terrestrial in-situ Beryllium-10 measured in quartz from alluvial and colluvial sediment samples (n=24) collected from the modern channel and paleo-arroyo walls located in JW and the adjacent upper Kanab Creek watershed. The third dataset consists of longitudinal profile concavities of the currently entrenched channel and the relict aggraded valley-fill surfaces and is used to identify systematic trends in aggraded versus entrenched channel forms.

  15. Future atmospheric abundances and climate forcings from scenarios of global and regional hydrofluorocarbon (HFC) emissions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Velders, Guus J. M.; Fahey, David W.; Daniel, John S.; Andersen, Stephen O.; McFarland, Mack

    2015-12-01

    Hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) are manufactured for use as substitutes for ozone-depleting substances that are being phased out globally under Montreal Protocol regulations. While HFCs do not deplete ozone, many are potent greenhouse gases that contribute to climate change. Here, new global scenarios show that baseline emissions of HFCs could reach 4.0-5.3 GtCO2-eq yr-1 in 2050. The new baseline (or business-as-usual) scenarios are formulated for 10 HFC compounds, 11 geographic regions, and 13 use categories. The scenarios rely on detailed data reported by countries to the United Nations; projections of gross domestic product and population; and recent observations of HFC atmospheric abundances. In the baseline scenarios, by 2050 China (31%), India and the rest of Asia (23%), the Middle East and northern Africa (11%), and the USA (10%) are the principal source regions for global HFC emissions; and refrigeration (40-58%) and stationary air conditioning (21-40%) are the major use sectors. The corresponding radiative forcing could reach 0.22-0.25 W m-2 in 2050, which would be 12-24% of the increase from business-as-usual CO2 emissions from 2015 to 2050. National regulations to limit HFC use have already been adopted in the European Union, Japan and USA, and proposals have been submitted to amend the Montreal Protocol to substantially reduce growth in HFC use. Calculated baseline emissions are reduced by 90% in 2050 by implementing the North America Montreal Protocol amendment proposal. Global adoption of technologies required to meet national regulations would be sufficient to reduce 2050 baseline HFC consumption by more than 50% of that achieved with the North America proposal for most developed and developing countries.

  16. Quantitative implications of the secondary role of carbon dioxide climate forcing in the past glacial-interglacial cycles for the likely future climatic impacts of anthropogenic greenhouse-gas forcings

    CERN Document Server

    Soon, Willie

    2007-01-01

    A review of the recent refereed literature fails to confirm quantitatively that carbon dioxide (CO2) radiative forcing was the prime mover in the changes in temperature, ice-sheet volume, and related climatic variables in the glacial and interglacial periods of the past 650,000 years, even under the "fast response" framework where the convenient if artificial distinction between forcing and feedback is assumed. Atmospheric CO2 variations generally follow changes in temperature and other climatic variables rather than preceding them. Likewise, there is no confirmation of the often-posited significant supporting role of methane (CH4) forcing, which despite its faster atmospheric response time is simply too small, amounting to less than 0.2 W/m2 from a change of 400 ppb. We cannot quantitatively validate the numerous qualitative suggestions that the CO2 and CH4 forcings that occurred in response to the Milankovich orbital cycles accounted for more than half of the amplitude of the changes in the glacial/intergla...

  17. Signals of astronomical climate forcing in the exposure topography of the North Polar Layered Deposits of Mars

    Science.gov (United States)

    Becerra, Patricio; Sori, Michael M.; Byrne, Shane

    2017-01-01

    Using high-resolution topography, we link the stratigraphy of layered ice deposits at the north pole of Mars to astronomically driven climate variability. Observations of trough exposures within these deposits are used to construct virtual ice cores at 16 sites, to which we apply wavelet analysis to identify periodicities in layer properties. To confidently relate these periodicities to climatic forcing, we identify overlapping dominant stratigraphic wavelengths and compare their ratios to that of the two dominant modes of insolation variability. The average ratio of stratigraphic wavelengths in the profiles is 1.9 ± 0.1, lower than the ratio of 2.3 between dominant insolation periodicities. A similar analysis of synthetic stratigraphic profiles created with a climate-driven model of ice and dust accumulation shows that this lower stratigraphic ratio is a natural consequence of time-variable ice accumulation rates.

  18. Elucidating dynamic responses of North Pacific fish populations to climatic forcing: Influence of life-history strategy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yatsu, A.; Aydin, K. Y.; King, J. R.; McFarlane, G. A.; Chiba, S.; Tadokoro, K.; Kaeriyama, M.; Watanabe, Y.

    2008-05-01

    In order to explore mechanistic linkages between low-frequency ocean/climate variability, and fish population responses, we undertook comparative studies of time-series of recruitment-related productivity and the biomass levels of fish stocks representing five life-history strategies in the northern North Pacific between the 1950s and the present. We selected seven species: Japanese sardine ( Sardinopus melanostictus) and California sardine ( Sardinopus sagax) (opportunistic strategists), walleye pollock ( Theragra chalcogramma, intermediate strategist), pink salmon ( Oncorhynchus gorbuscha, salmonic strategist), sablefish ( Anoplopoma fimbria) and Pacific halibut ( Hippoglossus stenolepis) (periodic strategists) and spiny dogfish ( Squalus acanthias, equilibrium strategist). The responses in terms of productivity of sardine, pink salmon, sablefish and halibut to climatic regime shifts were generally immediate, delayed, or no substantial responses depending on the particular regime shift year and fish stock (population). In walleye pollock, there were some periods of high productivity and low productivity, but not coincidental to climatic regime shifts, likely due to indirect climate forcing impacts on both bottom-up and top-down processes. Biomass of zooplankton and all fish stocks examined, except for spiny dogfish whose data were limited, indicated a decadal pattern with the most gradual changes in periodic strategists and most intensive and rapid changes in opportunistic strategists. Responses of sardine productivity to regime shifts were the most intense, probably due to the absence of density-dependent effects and the availability of refuges from predators when sardine biomass was extremely low. Spiny dogfish were least affected by environmental variability. Conversely, spiny dogfish are likely to withstand only modest harvest rates due to their very low intrinsic rate of increase. Thus, each life-history strategy type had a unique response to climatic

  19. Relating large-scale climate variability to local species abundance: ENSO forcing and shrimp in Breton Sound, Louisiana, USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Piazza, Bryan P.; LaPeyre, Megan K.; Keim, B.D.

    2010-01-01

    Climate creates environmental constraints (filters) that affect the abundance and distribution of species. In estuaries, these constraints often result from variability in water flow properties and environmental conditions (i.e. water flow, salinity, water temperature) and can have significant effects on the abundance and distribution of commercially important nekton species. We investigated links between large-scale climate variability and juvenile brown shrimp Farfantepenaeus aztecus abundance in Breton Sound estuary, Louisiana (USA). Our goals were to (1) determine if a teleconnection exists between local juvenile brown shrimp abundance and the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and (2) relate that linkage to environmental constraints that may affect juvenile brown shrimp recruitment to, and survival in, the estuary. Our results identified a teleconnection between winter ENSO conditions and juvenile brown shrimp abundance in Breton Sound estuary the following spring. The physical connection results from the impact of ENSO on winter weather conditions in Breton Sound (air pressure, temperature, and precipitation). Juvenile brown shrimp abundance effects lagged ENSO by 3 mo: lower than average abundances of juvenile brown shrimp were caught in springs following winter El Niño events, and higher than average abundances of brown shrimp were caught in springs following La Niña winters. Salinity was the dominant ENSO-forced environmental filter for juvenile brown shrimp. Spring salinity was cumulatively forced by winter river discharge, winter wind forcing, and spring precipitation. Thus, predicting brown shrimp abundance requires incorporating climate variability into models.

  20. Nonlinear, interacting responses to climate limit grassland production under global change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhu, Kai; Chiariello, Nona R; Tobeck, Todd; Fukami, Tadashi; Field, Christopher B

    2016-09-20

    Global changes in climate, atmospheric composition, and pollutants are altering ecosystems and the goods and services they provide. Among approaches for predicting ecosystem responses, long-term observations and manipulative experiments can be powerful approaches for resolving single-factor and interactive effects of global changes on key metrics such as net primary production (NPP). Here we combine both approaches, developing multidimensional response surfaces for NPP based on the longest-running, best-replicated, most-multifactor global-change experiment at the ecosystem scale-a 17-y study of California grassland exposed to full-factorial warming, added precipitation, elevated CO2, and nitrogen deposition. Single-factor and interactive effects were not time-dependent, enabling us to analyze each year as a separate realization of the experiment and extract NPP as a continuous function of global-change factors. We found a ridge-shaped response surface in which NPP is humped (unimodal) in response to temperature and precipitation when CO2 and nitrogen are ambient, with peak NPP rising under elevated CO2 or nitrogen but also shifting to lower temperatures. Our results suggest that future climate change will push this ecosystem away from conditions that maximize NPP, but with large year-to-year variability.

  1. Nonlinear, interacting responses to climate limit grassland production under global change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhu, Kai; Chiariello, Nona R.; Tobeck, Todd; Fukami, Tadashi; Field, Christopher B.

    2016-01-01

    Global changes in climate, atmospheric composition, and pollutants are altering ecosystems and the goods and services they provide. Among approaches for predicting ecosystem responses, long-term observations and manipulative experiments can be powerful approaches for resolving single-factor and interactive effects of global changes on key metrics such as net primary production (NPP). Here we combine both approaches, developing multidimensional response surfaces for NPP based on the longest-running, best-replicated, most-multifactor global-change experiment at the ecosystem scale—a 17-y study of California grassland exposed to full-factorial warming, added precipitation, elevated CO2, and nitrogen deposition. Single-factor and interactive effects were not time-dependent, enabling us to analyze each year as a separate realization of the experiment and extract NPP as a continuous function of global-change factors. We found a ridge-shaped response surface in which NPP is humped (unimodal) in response to temperature and precipitation when CO2 and nitrogen are ambient, with peak NPP rising under elevated CO2 or nitrogen but also shifting to lower temperatures. Our results suggest that future climate change will push this ecosystem away from conditions that maximize NPP, but with large year-to-year variability. PMID:27601643

  2. Future Climate Impacts of Direct Radiative Forcing Anthropogenic Aerosols, Tropospheric Ozone, and Long-lived Greenhouse Gases

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Wei-Ting; Liao, Hong; Seinfeld, John H.

    2007-01-01

    Long-lived greenhouse gases (GHGs) are the most important driver of climate change over the next century. Aerosols and tropospheric ozone (O3) are expected to induce significant perturbations to the GHG-forced climate. To distinguish the equilibrium climate responses to changes in direct radiative forcing of anthropogenic aerosols, tropospheric ozone, and GHG between present day and year 2100, four 80-year equilibrium climates are simulated using a unified tropospheric chemistry-aerosol model within the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) general circulation model (GCM) 110. Concentrations of sulfate, nitrate, primary organic (POA) carbon, secondary organic (SOA) carbon, black carbon (BC) aerosols, and tropospheric ozone for present day and year 2100 are obtained a priori by coupled chemistry-aerosol GCM simulations, with emissions of aerosols, ozone, and precursors based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emissions Scenario (SRES) A2. Changing anthropogenic aerosols, tropospheric ozone, and GHG from present day to year 2100 is predicted to perturb the global annual mean radiative forcing by +0.18 (considering aerosol direct effects only), +0.65, and +6.54 W m(sup -2) at the tropopause, and to induce an equilibrium global annual mean surface temperature change of +0.14, +0.32, and +5.31 K, respectively, with the largest temperature response occurring at northern high latitudes. Anthropogenic aerosols, through their direct effect, are predicted to alter the Hadley circulation owing to an increasing interhemispheric temperature gradient, leading to changes in tropical precipitation. When changes in both aerosols and tropospheric ozone are considered, the predicted patterns of change in global circulation and the hydrological cycle are similar to those induced by aerosols alone. GHG-induced climate changes, such as amplified warming over high latitudes, weakened Hadley circulation, and increasing precipitation over the

  3. A force-level theory of the rheology of entangled rod and chain polymer liquids. I. Tube deformation, microscopic yielding, and the nonlinear elastic limit

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schweizer, Kenneth S.; Sussman, Daniel M.

    2016-12-01

    We employ a first-principles-based, force-level approach to construct the anharmonic tube confinement field for entangled fluids of rigid needles, and also for chains described at the primitive-path (PP) level in two limiting situations where chain stretch is assumed to either be completely equilibrated or unrelaxed. The influence of shear and extensional deformation and polymer orientation is determined in a nonlinear elastic limit where dissipative relaxation processes are intentionally neglected. For needles and PP-level chains, a self-consistent analysis of transverse polymer harmonic dynamical fluctuations predicts that deformation-induced orientation leads to tube weakening or widening. In contrast, for deformed polymers in which chain stretch does not relax, we find tube strengthening or compression. For all three systems, a finite maximum transverse entanglement force localizing the polymers in effective tubes is predicted. The conditions when this entanglement force can be overcome by an externally applied force associated with macroscopic deformation can be crisply defined in the nonlinear elastic limit, and the possibility of a "microscopic absolute yielding" event destroying the tube confinement can be analyzed. For needles and contour-relaxed PP chains, this force imbalance occurs at a stress of order the equilibrium shear modulus and a strain of order unity, corresponding to a mechanically fragile entanglement tube field. However, for unrelaxed stretched chains, tube compression stabilizes transverse polymer confinement, and there appears to be no force imbalance. These results collectively suggest that the crossover from elastic to irreversible viscous response requires chain retraction to initiate disentanglement. We qualitatively discuss comparisons with existing phenomenological models for nonlinear startup shear, step strain, and creep rheology experiments.

  4. Unexpected weak seasonal climate in the western Mediterranean region during MIS 31, a high-insolation forced interglacial

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oliveira, Dulce; Sánchez Goñi, Maria Fernanda; Naughton, Filipa; Polanco-Martínez, J. M.; Jimenez-Espejo, Francisco J.; Grimalt, Joan O.; Martrat, Belen; Voelker, Antje H. L.; Trigo, Ricardo; Hodell, David; Abrantes, Fátima; Desprat, Stéphanie

    2017-04-01

    Marine Isotope Stage 31 (MIS 31) is an important analogue for ongoing and projected global warming, yet key questions remain about the regional signature of its extreme orbital forcing and intra-interglacial variability. Based on a new direct land-sea comparison in SW Iberian margin IODP Site U1385 we examine the climatic variability between 1100 and 1050 ka including the ;super interglacial; MIS 31, a period dominated by the 41-ky obliquity periodicity. Pollen and biomarker analyses at centennial-scale-resolution provide new insights into the regional vegetation, precipitation regime and atmospheric and oceanic temperature variability on orbital and suborbital timescales. Our study reveals that atmospheric and SST warmth during MIS 31 was not exceptional in this region highly sensitive to precession. Unexpectedly, this warm stage stands out as a prolonged interval of a temperate and humid climate regime with reduced seasonality, despite the high insolation (precession minima values) forcing. We find that the dominant forcing on the long-term temperate forest development was obliquity, which may have induced a decrease in summer dryness and associated reduction in seasonal precipitation contrast. Moreover, this study provides the first evidence for persistent atmospheric millennial-scale variability during this interval with multiple forest decline events reflecting repeated cooling and drying episodes in SW Iberia. Our direct land-sea comparison shows that the expression of the suborbital cooling events on SW Iberian ecosystems is modulated by the predominance of high or low-latitude forcing depending on the glacial/interglacial baseline climate states. Severe dryness and air-sea cooling is detected under the larger ice volume during glacial MIS 32 and MIS 30. The extreme episodes, which in their climatic imprint are similar to the Heinrich events, are likely related to northern latitude ice-sheet instability and a disruption of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning

  5. The influence of fully nonlinear wave forces on aero-hydro-elastic calculations of monopile wind turbines

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schløer, Signe; Bredmose, Henrik; Bingham, Harry B.

    2016-01-01

    and nonlinear irregular wave realizations are calculated using the fully nonlinear potential flow wave model OceanWave3D [1]. The linear and nonlinear wave realizations are compared using both a static analysis on a fixed monopile and dynamic calculations with the aeroelastic code Flex5 [2]. The conclusion from...... this analysis is that linear wave theory is generally sufficient for estimating the fatigue loading, but wave nonlinearity is important in determining the ultimate design loads.......The response of an offshore wind turbine tower and its monopile foundation has been investigated when exposed to linear and fully nonlinear irregular waves on four different water depths. The investigation focuses on the consequences of including full nonlinearity in the wave kinematics. The linear...

  6. Linear and nonlinear characteristics of the runoff response to regional climate factors in the Qira River basin, Xinjiang, Northwest China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xue, Jie; Gui, Dongwei

    2015-01-01

    The inland river watersheds of arid Northwest China represent an example of how, in recent times, climatic warming has increased the complexity of Earth's hydrological processes. In the present study, the linear and nonlinear characteristics of the runoff response to temperature and precipitation were investigated in the Qira River basin, located on the northern slope of the Kunlun Mountains. The results showed that average temperature on annual and seasonal scales has displayed a significantly increasing trend, but this has not been reflected in accumulated precipitation and runoff. Using path analysis, a positive link between precipitation and runoff was found both annually and in the summer season. Conversely, it was found that the impact of temperature on runoff has been negative since the 1960s, attributable to higher evaporation and infiltration in the Qira River basin. Over the past 50 years, abrupt changes in annual temperature, precipitation and runoff occurred in 1997, 1987 and 1995, respectively. Combined with analysis using the correlation dimension method, it was found that the temperature, precipitation and runoff, both annually and seasonally, possessed chaotic dynamic characteristics, implying that complex hydro-climatic processes must be introduced into other variables within models to describe the dynamics. In addition, as determined via rescaled range analysis, a consistent annual and seasonal decreasing trend in runoff under increasing temperature and precipitation conditions in the future should be taken into account. This work may provide a theoretical perspective that can be applied to the proper use and management of oasis water resources in the lower reaches of river basins like that of the Qira River.

  7. Role of aerosols in radiative forcing of climate change: Global mean and uncertainties

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Schwartz, S.E.

    1998-10-01

    Anthropogenically induced climate change is of great current interest because of increases in atmospheric loading of infrared active (greenhouse) gases over the past 150 years and the inferred resultant increase in infrared radiation flux in the troposphere. However, the climate change ascribed to such increases, not to mention predictions of future climate change in response to prospective changes in the earth`s radiation budget, is based virtually entirely on climate model simulations of how the earth`s climate would respond to changes in radiation rather than on empirically established relationships between changes in the earth`s radiation budget and climate change. There is thus an urgent need to evaluate the performance of climate models to ascertain the accuracy with which they represent the changes in temperature and other indicia of climate that have been observed over the industrial period. Such an evaluation, however, requires an accurate assessment of the totality of changes in the earth`s radiation budget in both the longwave (thermal infrared) and shortwave (solar) spectral regions, not just of changes in the longwave due to increased concentrations of long-lived greenhouse gases.

  8. Holocene climate change and the evidence for solar and other forcings

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Beer, J.; van Geel, B.; Battarbee, R.W.; Binney, H.A.

    2008-01-01

    Future climate change may have considerable effects on the hydrologic cycle and temperature, with significant consequences for sea level, food production, world economy, health, and biodiversity. How and why does the natural climate system vary on decadal to millennial time-scales? Do we

  9. Holocene climate change and the evidence for solar and other forcings

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Beer, J.; van Geel, B.; Battarbee, R.W.; Binney, H.A.

    2008-01-01

    Future climate change may have considerable effects on the hydrologic cycle and temperature, with significant consequences for sea level, food production, world economy, health, and biodiversity. How and why does the natural climate system vary on decadal to millennial time-scales? Do we sufficientl

  10. Comments on the paper "A comprehensive modeling and vibration analysis of AFM microcantilevers subjected to nonlinear tip-sample interaction forces" by Sohrab Eslami and Nader Jalili.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Passian, Ali; Tetard, Laurene; Thundat, Thomas

    2013-08-01

    This comment on the paper "A comprehensive modeling and vibration analysis of AFM microcantilevers subjected to nonlinear tip-sample interaction forces" by Sohrab Eslami and Jalili (2012) [1] aims to: (1) discuss and elucidate the concept of "virtual resonance" and thus (2) avert a misinterpretation of the experimental results and findings reported in the Tetard et al. Physical Review Letters 106, 180801 (2011) [2].

  11. Mutual Inductance and Magnetic Force Calculations for Bitter Disk Coil (Pancake) with Nonlinear Radial Current and Filamentary Circular Coil with Azimuthal Current

    OpenAIRE

    Slobodan Babic; Cevdet Akyel

    2016-01-01

    Bitter coils are electromagnets used for the generation of extremely strong magnetic fields superior to 30 T. In this paper we calculate the mutual inductance and the magnetic force between Bitter disk (pancake) coil with the nonlinear radial current and the circular filamentary coil with the azimuthal current. The close form expressed over complete elliptic integrals of the first and second kind as well as Heuman’s Lambda function is obtained for this configuration either for the mutual indu...

  12. STRUCTURE AND STABILITY OF MAGNETIC FIELDS IN SOLAR ACTIVE REGION 12192 BASED ON NONLINEAR FORCE-FREE FIELD MODELING

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Inoue, S. [Max-Planck-Institute for Solar System Research, Justus-von-Liebig-Weg 3 D-37077 Göttingen Germany (Germany); Hayashi, K.; Kusano, K., E-mail: inoue@mps.mpg.de [Institute for Space-Earth Environmental Research, Nagoya University, Furo-cho, Chikusa-ku, Nagoya, 464-8601 (Japan)

    2016-02-20

    We analyze a three-dimensional (3D) magnetic structure and its stability in large solar active region (AR) 12192, using the 3D coronal magnetic field constructed under a nonlinear force-free field (NLFFF) approximation. In particular, we focus on the magnetic structure that produced an X3.1-class flare, which is one of the X-class flares observed in AR 12192. According to our analysis, the AR contains a multiple-flux-tube system, e.g., a large flux tube, with footpoints that are anchored to the large bipole field, under which other tubes exist close to a polarity inversion line (PIL). These various flux tubes of different sizes and shapes coexist there. In particular, the latter are embedded along the PIL, which produces a favorable shape for the tether-cutting reconnection and is related to the X-class solar flare. We further found that most of magnetic twists are not released even after the flare, which is consistent with the fact that no observational evidence for major eruptions was found. On the other hand, the upper part of the flux tube is beyond a critical decay index, essential for the excitation of torus instability before the flare, even though no coronal mass ejections were observed. We discuss the stability of the complicated flux tube system and suggest the reason for the existence of the stable flux tube. In addition, we further point out a possibility for tracing the shape of flare ribbons, on the basis of a detailed structural analysis of the NLFFF before a flare.

  13. Volcanic forcing for climate modeling: a new microphysics-based dataset covering years 1600–present

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. Peter

    2013-02-01

    Full Text Available As the understanding and representation of the impacts of volcanic eruptions on climate have improved in the last decades, uncertainties in the stratospheric aerosol forcing from large eruptions are now not only linked to visible optical depth estimates on a global scale but also to details on the size, latitude and altitude distributions of the stratospheric aerosols. Based on our understanding of these uncertainties, we propose a new model-based approach to generating a volcanic forcing for General-Circulation-Model (GCM and Chemistry-Climate-Model (CCM simulations. This new volcanic forcing, covering the 1600–present period, uses an aerosol microphysical model to provide a realistic, physically consistent treatment of the stratospheric sulfate aerosols. Twenty-six eruptions were modeled individually using the latest available ice cores aerosol mass estimates and historical data on the latitude and date of eruptions. The evolution of aerosol spatial and size distribution after the sulfur dioxide discharge are hence characterized for each volcanic eruption. Large variations are seen in hemispheric partitioning and size distributions in relation to location/date of eruptions and injected SO2 masses. Results for recent eruptions are in good agreement with observations. By providing accurate amplitude and spatial distributions of shortwave and longwave radiative perturbations by volcanic sulfate aerosols, we argue that this volcanic forcing may help refine the climate model responses to the large volcanic eruptions since 1600. The final dataset consists of 3-D values (with constant longitude of spectrally resolved extinction coefficients, single scattering albedos and asymmetry factors calculated for different wavelength bands upon request. Surface area densities for heterogeneous chemistry are also provided.

  14. The sensitivity of the climate response to the magnitude and location of freshwater forcing: last glacial maximum experiments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Otto-Bliesner, Bette L.; Brady, Esther C.

    2010-01-01

    Proxy records indicate that the locations and magnitudes of freshwater forcing to the Atlantic Ocean basin as iceberg discharges into the high-latitude North Atlantic, Laurentide meltwater input to the Gulf of Mexico, or meltwater diversion to the North Atlantic via the St. Lawrence River and other eastern outlets may have influenced the North Atlantic thermohaline circulation and global climate. We have performed Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) simulations with the NCAR Community Climate System Model (CCSM3) in which the magnitude of the freshwater forcing has been varied from 0.1 to 1 Sv and inserted either into the subpolar North Atlantic Ocean or the Gulf of Mexico. In these glacial freshening experiments, the less dense freshwater provides a lid on the ocean water below, suppressing ocean convection and interaction with the atmosphere above and reducing the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). This is the case whether the freshwater is added directly to the area of convection south of Greenland or transported there by the subtropical and subpolar gyres when added to the Gulf of Mexico. The AMOC reduction is less for the smaller freshwater forcings, but is not linear with the size of the freshwater perturbation. The recovery of the AMOC from a "slow" state is ˜200 years for the 0.1 Sv experiment and ˜500 years for the 1 Sv experiment. For glacial climates, with large Northern Hemisphere ice sheets and reduced greenhouse gases, the cold subpolar North Atlantic is primed to respond rapidly and dramatically to freshwater that is either directly dumped into this region or after being advected from the Gulf of Mexico. Greenland temperatures cool by 6-8 °C in all the experiments, with little sensitivity to the magnitude, location or duration of the freshwater forcing, but exhibiting large seasonality. Sea ice is important for explaining the responses. The Northern Hemisphere high latitudes are slow to recover. Antarctica and the Southern Ocean show a

  15. Stochastic Modeling of Isolated Wetland Hydrologic Variability: Effects of Hydro-climatic Forcing, Wetland Bathymetry, and Groundwater-Surface Water Connectivity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Park, Jeryang; Botter, Gianluca; Jawitz, Jim; Rao, Suresh

    2014-05-01

    Hydrological regimes regulate many wetland eco-hydrological functions, such as aquatic habitat integrity and biogeochemical processes. We examined hydrologic temporal variability of geographically isolated wetlands (GIWs), and derived analytical expressions for probability density functions (pdfs) of water storage volume, water stage, and water surface area. We conceptualize a GIW as a non-linear reservoir, subject to stochastic "shot-noise" (Poisson rainfall inputs) modulated by recession through evapotranspiration and drainage during inter-event periods. The derived analytical pdfs are defined by three dimensionless parameters: scaled aridity index; mean daily stage increment (during rainfall events); and wetland shape coefficient. These key parameters define the similarity or diversity of hydrologic regimes of different GIWs at a location, or at different sites by capturing the essential features of the wetlandscape: stochastic hydro-climatic forcing, bathymetry, and connectivity to groundwater and/or upland. Numerical simulation of hydrologic variability of groundwater-dependent GIWs allowed us to further examine the role of groundwater-surface water connectivity, and how an adjustment to the effective rate of water loss can be made to match the derived analytical pdf solutions. We also compared the analytical pdfs with observed data from an isolated wetland in Florida. This model framework has utility for managers seeking to achieve target eco-hydrological regimes of GIWs.

  16. Climate forcing and Neanderthal extinction in Southern Iberia: insights from a multiproxy marine record

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jiménez-Espejo, Francisco J.; Martínez-Ruiz, Francisca; Finlayson, Clive; Paytan, Adina; Sakamoto, Tatsuhiko; Ortega-Huertas, Miguel; Finlayson, Geraldine; Iijima, Koichi; Gallego-Torres, David; Fa, Darren

    2007-04-01

    Paleoclimate records from the western Mediterranean have been used to further understand the role of climatic changes in the replacement of archaic human populations inhabiting South Iberia. Marine sediments from the Balearic basin (ODP Site 975) was analysed at high resolution to obtain both geochemical and mineralogical data. These data were compared with climate records from nearby areas. Baexcces was used to characterize marine productivity and then related to climatic variability. Since variations in productivity were the consequence of climatic oscillations, climate/productivity events have been established. Sedimentary regime, primary marine productivity and oxygen conditions at the time of population replacement were reconstructed by means of a multiproxy approach. Climatic/oceanographic variations correlate well with Homo spatial and occupational patterns in Southern Iberia. It was found that low ventilation (U/Th), high river supply (Mg/Al), low aridity (Zr/Al) and low values of Baexcess coefficient of variation, may be linked with Neanderthal hospitable conditions. We attempt to support recent findings which claim that Neanderthals populations continued to inhabit southern Iberia between 30 and ˜28 ky cal BP and that this persistence was due to the specific characteristics of South Iberian climatic refugia. Comparisons of our data with other marine and continental records appear to indicate that conditions in South Iberia were highly inhospitable at ˜24 ky cal BP. Thus, it is proposed that the final disappearance of Neanderthals in this region could be linked with these extreme conditions.

  17. Sensitivity of the Atmospheric Response to Warm Pool El Nino Events to Modeled SSTs and Future Climate Forcings

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hurwitz, Margaret M.; Garfinkel, Chaim I.; Newman, Paul A.; Oman, Luke D.

    2013-01-01

    Warm pool El Nino (WPEN) events are characterized by positive sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the central equatorial Pacific. Under present-day climate conditions, WPEN events generate poleward propagating wavetrains and enhance midlatitude planetary wave activity, weakening the stratospheric polar vortices. The late 21st century extratropical atmospheric response to WPEN events is investigated using the Goddard Earth Observing System Chemistry-Climate Model (GEOSCCM), version 2. GEOSCCM simulations are forced by projected late 21st century concentrations of greenhouse gases (GHGs) and ozone-depleting substances (ODSs) and by SSTs and sea ice concentrations from an existing ocean-atmosphere simulation. Despite known ocean-atmosphere model biases, the prescribed SST fields represent a best estimate of the structure of late 21st century WPEN events. The future Arctic vortex response is qualitatively similar to that observed in recent decades but is weaker in late winter. This response reflects the weaker SST forcing in the Nino 3.4 region and subsequently weaker Northern Hemisphere tropospheric teleconnections. The Antarctic stratosphere does not respond to WPEN events in a future climate, reflecting a change in tropospheric teleconnections: The meridional wavetrain weakens while a more zonal wavetrain originates near Australia. Sensitivity simulations show that a strong poleward wavetrain response to WPEN requires a strengthening and southeastward extension of the South Pacific Convergence Zone; this feature is not captured by the late 21st century modeled SSTs. Expected future increases in GHGs and decreases in ODSs do not affect the polar stratospheric responses to WPEN.

  18. Another Look at Climate Sensitivity

    CERN Document Server

    Zaliapin, Ilya

    2010-01-01

    We revisit a recent claim that the Earth's climate system is characterized by sensitive dependence to parameters; in particular, that the system exhibits an asymmetric, large-amplitude response to normally distributed feedback forcing. Such a response would imply irreducible uncertainty in climate change predictions and thus have notable implications for climate science and climate-related policy making. We show that equilibrium climate sensitivity in all generality does not support such an intrinsic indeterminacy; the latter appears only in essentially linear systems. The main flaw in the analysis that led to this claim is inappropriate linearization of an intrinsically nonlinear model; there is no room for physical interpretations or policy conclusions based on this mathematical error. Sensitive dependence nonetheless does exist in the climate system, as well as in climate models -- albeit in a very different sense from the one claimed in the linear work under scrutiny -- and we illustrate it using a classi...

  19. A global model simulation of present and future nitrate aerosols and their direct radiative forcing of climate

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. A. Hauglustaine

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available The ammonia cycle and nitrate particle formation have been introduced in the LMDz-INCA global model. Both fine nitrate particles formation in the accumulation mode and coarse nitrate forming on existing dust and sea-salt particles are considered. The model simulates distributions of nitrates and related species in agreement with previous studies and observations. The calculated present-day total nitrate direct radiative forcing since the pre-industrial is −0.056 W m−2. This forcing has the same magnitude than the forcing associated with organic carbon particles and represents 18% of the sulfate forcing. Fine particles largely dominate the nitrate forcing representing close to 90% of this value. The model has been used to investigate the future changes in nitrates and direct radiative forcing of climate based on snapshot simulations for the four Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP scenarios and for the 2030, 2050 and 2100 time horizons. Due to a decrease in fossil fuel emissions in the future, the concentrations of most of the species involved in the nitrate-ammonium-sulfate system drop by 2100 except for ammonia which originates from agricultural practices and for which emissions significantly increase in the future. Despite the decrease of nitrate surface levels in Europe and Northern America, the global burden of accumulation mode nitrates increases by up to a factor of 2.6 in 2100. This increase in nitrate in the future arises despite decreasing NOx emissions due to increased availability of ammonia to form ammonium nitrate. The total aerosol direct forcing decreases from its present-day value of −0.234 W m−2 to a range of −0.070 to −0.130 W m−2 in 2100 based on the considered scenario. The direct forcing decreases for all aerosols except for nitrates for which the direct negative forcing increases to a range of −0.060 to −0.115 W m−2 in 2100. Including nitrates in the radiative forcing calculations increases the

  20. The effect of the nonlinear velocity and history dependencies of the aerodynamic force on the dynamic response of a rotating wind turbine blade

    Science.gov (United States)

    van der Male, Pim; van Dalen, Karel N.; Metrikine, Andrei V.

    2016-11-01

    Existing models for the analysis of offshore wind turbines account for the aerodynamic action on the turbine rotor in detail, requiring a high computational price. When considering the foundation of an offshore wind turbine, however, a reduced rotor model may be sufficient. To define such a model, the significance of the nonlinear velocity and history dependency of the aerodynamic force on a rotating blade should be known. Aerodynamic interaction renders the dynamics of a rotating blade in an ambient wind field nonlinear in terms of the dependency on the wind velocity relative to the structural motion. Moreover, the development in time of the aerodynamic force does not follow the flow velocity instantaneously, implying a history dependency. In addition, both the non-uniform blade geometry and the aerodynamic interaction couple the blade motions in and out of the rotational plane. Therefore, this study presents the Euler-Bernoulli formulation of a twisted rotating blade connected to a rigid hub, excited by either instantaneous or history-dependent aerodynamic forces. On this basis, the importance of the history dependency is determined. Moreover, to assess the nonlinear contributions, both models are linearized. The structural response is computed for a stand-still and a rotating blade, based on the NREL 5-MW turbine. To this end, the model is reduced on the basis of its first three free-vibration mode shapes. Blade tip response predictions, computed from turbulent excitation, correctly account for both modal and directional couplings, and the added damping resulting from the dependency of the aerodynamic force on the structural motion. Considering the deflection of the blade tip, the history-dependent and the instantaneous force models perform equally well, providing a basis for the potential use of the instantaneous model for the rotor reduction. The linearized instantaneous model provides similar results for the rotating blade, indicating its potential

  1. Synchronous fire activity in the tropical high Andes: an indication of regional climate forcing

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Roman-Cuesta, R.M.; Carmona-Moreno, C.; Lizcano, G.; New, M.; Silman, M.R.; Knoke, T.; Malhi, Y.; Oliveras Menor, I.; Asbjornsen, H.; Vuille, M.

    2014-01-01

    Global climate models suggest enhanced warming of the tropical mid and upper troposphere, with larger temperature rise rates at higher elevations. Changes in fire activity are amongst the most significant ecological consequences of rising temperatures and changing hydrological properties in

  2. Are natural climate forcings able to counteract the projected anthropogenic global warming?

    OpenAIRE

    Bertrand, C.; van Ypersele, J.P.; Berger, A.

    2002-01-01

    A two-dimensional global climate model is used to assess the climatic changes associated with the new IPCC SRES emissions scenarios and to determine which kind of changes in total solar irradiance and volcanic perturbations could mask the projected anthropogenic global warming associated to the SRES scenarios. Our results suggest that only extremely unlikely changes in total solar irradiance and/or volcanic eruptions would be able to overcome the simulated anthropogenic global warming over th...

  3. A global model simulation of present and future nitrate aerosols and their direct radiative forcing of climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hauglustaine, D. A.; Balkanski, Y.; Schulz, M.

    2014-10-01

    The ammonia cycle and nitrate particle formation are introduced into the LMDz-INCA (Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique, version 4 - INteraction with Chemistry and Aerosols, version 3) global model. An important aspect of this new model is that both fine nitrate particle formation in the accumulation mode and coarse nitrate forming on existing dust and sea-salt particles are considered. The model simulates distributions of nitrates and related species in agreement with previous studies and observations. The calculated present-day total nitrate direct radiative forcing since the pre-industrial is -0.056 W m-2. This forcing corresponds to 18% of the sulfate forcing. Fine particles largely dominate the nitrate forcing, representing close to 90% of this value. The model has been used to investigate the future changes in nitrates and direct radiative forcing of climate based on snapshot simulations for the four representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios and for the 2030, 2050, and 2100 time horizons. Due to a decrease in fossil fuel emissions in the future, the concentration of most of the species involved in the nitrate-ammonium-sulfate system drop by 2100 except for ammonia, which originates from agricultural practices and for which emissions significantly increase in the future. Despite the decrease of nitrate surface levels in Europe and North America, the global burden of accumulation mode nitrates increases by up to a factor of 2.6 in 2100. This increase in ammonium nitrate in the future arises despite decreasing NOx emissions due to increased availability of ammonia to form ammonium nitrate. The total aerosol direct forcing decreases from its present-day value of -0.234 W m-2 to a range of -0.070 to -0.130 W m-2 in 2100 based on the considered scenario. The direct forcing decreases for all aerosols except for nitrates, for which the direct negative forcing increases to a range of -0.060 to -0.115 W m-2 in 2100. Including nitrates in the radiative

  4. Northern Hemisphere forcing of climatic cycles in Antarctica over the past 360,000 years.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kawamura, Kenji; Parrenin, Frédéric; Lisiecki, Lorraine; Uemura, Ryu; Vimeux, Françoise; Severinghaus, Jeffrey P; Hutterli, Manuel A; Nakazawa, Takakiyo; Aoki, Shuji; Jouzel, Jean; Raymo, Maureen E; Matsumoto, Koji; Nakata, Hisakazu; Motoyama, Hideaki; Fujita, Shuji; Goto-Azuma, Kumiko; Fujii, Yoshiyuki; Watanabe, Okitsugu

    2007-08-23

    The Milankovitch theory of climate change proposes that glacial-interglacial cycles are driven by changes in summer insolation at high northern latitudes. The timing of climate change in the Southern Hemisphere at glacial-interglacial transitions (which are known as terminations) relative to variations in summer insolation in the Northern Hemisphere is an important test of this hypothesis. So far, it has only been possible to apply this test to the most recent termination, because the dating uncertainty associated with older terminations is too large to allow phase relationships to be determined. Here we present a new chronology of Antarctic climate change over the past 360,000 years that is based on the ratio of oxygen to nitrogen molecules in air trapped in the Dome Fuji and Vostok ice cores. This ratio is a proxy for local summer insolation, and thus allows the chronology to be constructed by orbital tuning without the need to assume a lag between a climate record and an orbital parameter. The accuracy of the chronology allows us to examine the phase relationships between climate records from the ice cores and changes in insolation. Our results indicate that orbital-scale Antarctic climate change lags Northern Hemisphere insolation by a few millennia, and that the increases in Antarctic temperature and atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration during the last four terminations occurred within the rising phase of Northern Hemisphere summer insolation. These results support the Milankovitch theory that Northern Hemisphere summer insolation triggered the last four deglaciations.

  5. Is the astronomical forcing a reliable and unique pacemaker for Climate?

    CERN Document Server

    De Saedeleer, B; Wieczorek, S

    2011-01-01

    There is evidence that ice age cycles are paced by astronomical forcing, suggesting some kind of synchronization phenomenon. Here, we identify the type of such synchronization and explore systematically its uniqueness and robustness using a simple paleoclimate model akin to the Van der Pol relaxation oscillator and dynamical system theory. As the insolation is quite a complex quasiperiodic signal, the traditional concepts of phase- or frequency-locking used to define synchronization to periodic forcing are inadequate. Instead, we explore a different concept of {\\it generalized synchronization} in terms of (coexisting) synchronized solutions for the forced system, their basins of attraction and instabilities. We propose a clustering technique to compute the number of synchronized solutions (paleoclimate histories). In this way, we uncover multistable synchronization at low forcing strength, and monostable or unique synchronization at stronger forcing. In the multistable regime, different initial conditions may...

  6. Abrupt transition from natural to anthropogenic aerosol radiative forcing: Observations at the ABC-Maldives Climate Observatory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ramana, M. V.; Ramanathan, V.

    2006-10-01

    Using aerosol-radiation observations over the north Indian Ocean, we show how the monsoon transition from southwest to northeast flow gives rise to a similar transition in the direct aerosol radiative forcing from natural to anthropogenic forcing. These observations were taken at the newly built aerosol-radiation-climate observatory at the island of Hanimaadhoo (6.776°N, 73.183°E) in the Republic of Maldives. This observatory is established as a part of Project Atmospheric Brown Clouds (ABC) and is referred to as the ABC-Maldives Climate Observatory at Hanimaadhoo (ABC_MCOH). The transition from the southwest monsoon during October to the northeast monsoon flow during early November occurs abruptly over a period of few weeks over ABC-MCOH and reveals a dramatic contrast between the natural marine aerosols transported from the south Indian Ocean by the southwest monsoon and that of the polluted aerosols transported from the south and Southeast Asian region by the northeast monsoon. We document the change in the microphysical properties and the irradiance at the surface, to identify the human signature on aerosol radiative forcing. We first establish the precision of surface radiometric observations by comparing simultaneous observations using calibrated Kipp & Zonen and Eppley pyrheliometers and pyranometers for direct, diffuse and global solar radiation. We show that the direct, diffuse and global radiation can be measured within a precision of about 3 to 5 Wm-2. Furthermore, when we include the observed aerosol optical properties as input into the Monte Carlo Aerosol Cloud Radiation (MACR) model (developed by us using Indian Ocean Experiment data), the simulated fluxes agree with the observed direct, diffuse and global fluxes within the measurement accuracy. A steady southwest monsoon flow of about 5 to 7 ms-1 persists until middle of October which switches to an abrupt change in direction to northeast flow of similar speeds bringing in polluted air from south

  7. Obliquity and Precession in the Quaternary: Analyzing Climate Responses Using Single-Forcing GCM Simulations and Bayesian Model-Proxy Comparison

    Science.gov (United States)

    Erb, M. P.; Jackson, C. S.; Broccoli, A. J.; Lea, D. W.

    2015-12-01

    We present a detection and attribution approach to interpret the forcings and feedbacks that shaped Quaternary climate stemming from known variations in Earth's obliquity, precession, greenhouse gases, and ice sheet extent. Because future climate changes will be driven largely by only one forcing, CO2, it is important to better separate and understand the individual contributions of different forcings in producing past recorded changes. We use idealized equilibrium GCM simulations to fingerprint the annual mean and seasonal responses to individual changes in obliquity, precession, CO2, and ice sheets. These idealized "fingerprint" simulations are scaled by time series of past forcings and summed together to create a time-varying linear reconstruction of past climate that can be compared against proxy records. A multiple linear regression is conducted using Bayesian inference between the components of the linear reconstruction and long proxy time series, such as temperature from deuterium in Antarctic ice cores, to determine whether the modeled response to each forcing needs to be stronger or weaker to better match the data. This methodology offers a simple framework for exploring uncertainties affecting the interpretation of long time series of Quaternary climate variability and a way to use proxy data to test climate response processes relevant to future climate change.

  8. Interannual to multidecadal climate forcings on groundwater resources of the U.S. West Coast

    Science.gov (United States)

    Velasco, Elzie M; Gurdak, Jason J.; Dickinson, Jesse; Ferre, T.P.A; Corona, Claudia

    2016-01-01

    Study regionThe U.S. West Coast, including the Pacific Northwest and California Coastal Basins aquifer systems.Study focusGroundwater response to interannual to multidecadal climate variability has important implications for security within the water–energy–food nexus. Here we use Singular Spectrum Analysis to quantify the teleconnections between AMO, PDO, ENSO, and PNA and precipitation and groundwater level fluctuations. The computer program DAMP was used to provide insight on the influence of soil texture, depth to water, and mean and period of a surface infiltration flux on the damping of climate signals in the vadose zone.New hydrological insights for the regionWe find that PDO, ENSO, and PNA have significant influence on precipitation and groundwater fluctuations across a north-south gradient of the West Coast, but the lower frequency climate modes (PDO) have a greater influence on hydrologic patterns than higher frequency climate modes (ENSO and PNA). Low frequency signals tend to be preserved better in groundwater fluctuations than high frequency signals, which is a function of the degree of damping of surface variable fluxes related to soil texture, depth to water, mean and period of the infiltration flux. The teleconnection patterns that exist in surface hydrologic processes are not necessarily the same as those preserved in subsurface processes, which are affected by damping of some climate variability signals within infiltrating water.

  9. Cholera and shigellosis in Bangladesh: similarities and differences in population dynamics under climate forcing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pascual, M.; Cash, B.; Reiner, R.; King, A.; Emch, M.; Yunus, M.; Faruque, A. S.

    2012-12-01

    The influence of climate variability on the population dynamics of infectious diseases is considered a large scale, regional, phenomenon, and as such, has been previously addressed for cholera with temporal models that do not incorporate fine-scale spatial structure. In our previous work, evidence for a role of ENSO (El Niño Southern Oscillation) on cholera in Bangladesh was elucidated, and shown to influence the regional climate through precipitation. With a probabilistic spatial model for cholera dynamics in the megacity of Dhaka, we found that the action of climate variability (ENSO and flooding) is localized: there is a climate-sensitive urban core that acts to propagate risk to the rest of the city. Here, we consider long-term surveillance data for shigellosis, another diarrheal disease that coexists with cholera in Bangladesh. We compare the patterns of association with climate variables for these two diseases in a rural setting, as well as the spatial structure in their spatio-temporal dynamics in an urban one. Evidence for similar patterns is presented, and discussed in the context of the differences in the routes of transmission of the two diseases and the proposed role of an environmental reservoir in cholera. The similarities provide evidence for a more general influence of hydrology and of socio-economic factors underlying human susceptibility and sanitary conditions.

  10. Atmospheric circulation anomalies due to 115 kyr BP climate forcing dominated by changes in the North Pacific Ocean

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Otieno, Francis O. [The Ohio State University, Polar Meteorology Group, Byrd Polar Research Center, Columbus, OH (United States); Bromwich, David H. [The Ohio State University, Polar Meteorology Group, Byrd Polar Research Center, Columbus, OH (United States); The Ohio State University, Atmospheric Sciences Program, Department of Geography, Columbus, OH (United States); Oglesby, Robert [University of Nebraska, Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Lincoln, NE (United States)

    2012-02-15

    Climate at the time of inception of the Laurentide Ice Sheet (LIS) at 115 kyr BP is simulated with the fully coupled NCAR Community Climate System Model (CCSM3) and compared to a simulated preindustrial climate (circa 1870) in order to better understand land surface and atmospheric responses to orbital and greenhouse cooling at inception. The interaction between obliquity and eccentricity produces maximum decrease in TOA insolation in JJA over the Arctic but increases occur over the tropics in DJF. The land surface response is dominated by widespread summer cooling in the Northern Hemisphere (NH), increases in snowfall, and decreases in melt rates and total precipitation. CCSM3 responds to the climate forcing at 115 kyr BP by producing incipient glaciation in the areas of LIS nucleation. We find that the inception of the LIS could have occurred with atmospheric circulation patterns that differ little from the present. The location of the troughs/ridges, mean flow over the Canadian Arctic and dominant modes of the atmospheric circulation are all very similar to the present. Larger changes in mean sea level pressure occur upstream of the inception region in the North Pacific Ocean and downstream in Western Europe. In the North Pacific region, the 115 kyr BP anomalies weaken both the Pacific high and Aleutian low making NH summers look more like the PREIND winters and vice versa. The occurrence of cold JJA anomalies at 115 kyr BP favors outbreaks of cold air not in the winter as in contemporary climates but during the summer instead and reinforces the cooling from orbital and GHG reductions. Increased poleward eddy transport of heat and moisture characterizes the atmospheric response in addition to reduced total cloud cover in the Arctic. (orig.)

  11. Recent Changes in the Climate: Natural or Forced by Human Activity?

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Karlen, Wibjoern (Dept. of Physical Geography, Stockholm Univ., Stockholm (Sweden)). E-mail: wibjorn.karlen@kultgeog.uu.se

    2008-12-15

    Humanity has always lived under the threat of disasters such as famine. Now that these threats have diminished considerably in the West, it seems like people need a new scare that can be shared, thereby having a uniting effect. The possible impact of an increased atmospheric greenhouse gas concentration seems to have taken over this role. However, new dating techniques and numerous new studies have now added information that can bring about a reevaluation of the opinion that it is only human activity that can explain recent climatic changes. A distinction between trends and variability in climate is only possible if long-term records can be studied. Greenland ice core data yield well-dated information about climate over an extended period that, seen together with other data series, indicates that large, probably global scale changes have occurred at numerous times in the past. The warming during the past 100 y is not likely to be unique

  12. High-frequency cyclicity in the Mediterranean Messinian evaporites: evidence for solar-lunar climate forcing

    CERN Document Server

    Manzi, Vinicio; Lugli, Stefano; Roveri, Marco; Scafetta, Nicola; Schreiber, Charlotte B; 10.2110/jsr.2012.81

    2013-01-01

    The deposition of varved sedimentary sequences is usually controlled by climate conditions. The study of two Late Miocene evaporite successions (one halite and the other gypsum) consisting of annual varves has been carried out to reconstruct the paleoclimatic and paleoenvironmental conditions existing during the acme of the Messinian salinity crisis, ~ 6 Ma, when thick evaporite deposits accumulated on the floor of the Mediterranean basin. Spectral analyses of these varved evaporitic successions reveal significant periodicity peaks at around 3-5, 9, 11-13, 20-27 and 50-100 yr. A comparison with modern precipitation data in the western Mediterranean shows that during the acme of the Messinian salinity crisis the climate was not in a permanent evaporitic stage, but in a dynamic situation where evaporite deposition was controlled by quasi-periodic climate oscillations with similarity to modern analogs including Quasi-Biennial Oscillation, El Ni\\~no Southern Oscillation, and decadal to secular lunar- and solar-in...

  13. Elevated atmospheric CO2 negatively impacts photosynthesis through radiative forcing and physiology-mediated climate feedback

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhu, Peng; Zhuang, Qianlai; Ciais, Philippe; Welp, Lisa; Li, Wenyu; Xin, Qinchuan

    2017-02-01

    Increasing atmospheric CO2 affects photosynthesis involving directly increasing leaf carboxylation rates, stomatal closure, and climatic effects. The direct effects are generally thought to be positive leading to increased photosynthesis, while its climatic effects can be regionally positive or negative. These effects are usually considered to be independent from each other, but they are in fact coupled through interactions between land surface exchanges of gases and heat and the physical climate system. In particular, stomatal closure reduces evapotranspiration and increases sensible heat emissions from ecosystems, leading to decreased atmospheric moisture and precipitation and local warming. We use a coupled earth system model to attribute the influence of the increase in CO2 on gross primary productivity (GPP) during the period of 1930-2011. In our model, CO2 radiative effects cause climate change that has only a negligible effect on global GPP (a reduction of 0.9 ± 2% during the last 80 years) because of opposite responses between tropical and northern biomes. On the other hand, CO2 physiological effects on GPP are both positive, by increased carboxylation rates and water use efficiency (7.1 ± 0.48% increase), and negative, by vegetation-climate feedback reducing precipitation, as a consequence of decreased transpiration and increased sensible heat in areas without water limitation (2.7 ± 1.76% reduction).When considering the coupled atmosphere-vegetation system, negative climate feedback on photosynthesis and plant growth due to the current level of CO2 opposes 29-38% of the gains from direct fertilization effects.

  14. ENSO forcing of the Northern Hemisphere climate in a large ensemble of model simulations based on a very long SST record

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Herceg Bulic, Ivana [University of Zagreb, Andrija Mohorovicic Geophysical Institute, Faculty of Science, Zagreb (Croatia); Brankovic, Cedo [Croatian Meteorological and Hydrological Service, Zagreb (Croatia)

    2007-02-15

    The January-March (JFM) climate response of the Northern Hemisphere atmosphere to observed sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies for the period 1855-2002 is analysed from a 35-member ensemble made with SPEEDY, an atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) of intermediate complexity. The model was run at the T30-L8 resolution, and initial conditions and the early stage of model runs differ among ensemble members in the definition of tropical diabatic heating. SST anomalies in the Nino3.4 region were categorised into five classes extending from strong cold to strong warm. Composites based on such a categorisation enabled an analysis of the influence of the tropical Pacific SST on the Northern Hemisphere atmospheric circulation with an emphasis on the Pacific-North America (PNA) and the North Atlantic-Europe (NAE) regions. As expected, the strongest signal was detected over the PNA region. An ''asymmetry'' in the model response was found for the opposite polarity of the Nino3.4 index; however, this asymmetry stems mainly from the difference in the amplitude of model response rather than from the phase shift between responses to warm and cold El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events. The extratropical signal associated with warm ENSO events was found to be stronger than that related to cold events. The results also reveal that, for the PNA region, the amplitude of the response is positively correlated with the strength of ENSO, irrespective of the sign of ENSO. With almost no phase shift between model responses to El Nino and La Nina, the linear component of the response is much stronger than the non-linear component. Although the model climate response over the NAE region is much weaker than that over the PNA region, some striking similarities with the PNA are found. Both sea level pressure and precipitation responses are positively correlated with the strength of ENSO. This is not true for the 200-hPa geopotential heights, and no plausible

  15. Climate forcing reconstructions for use in PMIP simulations of the Last Millennium (v1.1

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. A. Schmidt

    2011-09-01

    Full Text Available We update the forcings for the PMIP3 experiments for the Last Millennium to include a new assessment of historical land use changes and discuss new suggestions for calibrating solar activity proxies to total solar irradiance.

  16. Climatic effects of 1950–2050 changes in US anthropogenic aerosols – Part 1: Aerosol trends and radiative forcing

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. G. Streets

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available We calculate decadal aerosol direct and indirect (warm cloud radiative forcings from US anthropogenic sources over the 1950–2050 period. Past and future aerosol distributions are constructed using GEOS-Chem and historical emission inventories and future projections from the IPCC A1B scenario. Aerosol simulations are evaluated with observed spatial distributions and 1980–2010 trends of aerosol concentrations and wet deposition in the contiguous US. Direct and indirect radiative forcing is calculated using the GISS general circulation model and monthly mean aerosol distributions from GEOS-Chem. The radiative forcing from US anthropogenic aerosols is strongly localized over the eastern US. We find that its magnitude peaked in 1970–1990, with values over the eastern US (east of 100° W of −2.0 W m−2 for direct forcing including contributions from sulfate (−2.0 W m−2, nitrate (−0.2 W m−2, organic carbon (−0.2 W m−2, and black carbon (+0.4 W m−2. The uncertainties in radiative forcing due to aerosol radiative properties are estimated to be about 50%. The aerosol indirect effect is estimated to be of comparable magnitude to the direct forcing. We find that the magnitude of the forcing declined sharply from 1990 to 2010 (by 0.8 W m−2 direct and 1.0 W m−2 indirect, mainly reflecting decreases in SO2 emissions, and project that it will continue declining post-2010 but at a much slower rate since US SO2 emissions have already declined by almost 60% from their peak. This suggests that much of the warming effect of reducing US anthropogenic aerosol sources has already been realized. The small positive radiative forcing from US BC emissions (+0.3 W m−2 over the eastern US in 2010; 5% of the global forcing from anthropogenic BC emissions worldwide suggests that a US emission control strategy focused on BC would have only limited climate benefit.

  17. Climatic Effects of 1950-2050 Changes in US Anthropogenic Aerosols. Part 1; Aerosol Trends and Radiative Forcing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leibensperger, E. M.; Mickley, L. J.; Jacob, D. J.; Chen, W.-T.; Seinfeld, J. H.; Nenes, A.; Adams, P. J.; Streets, D. G.; Kumar, N.; Rind, D.

    2012-01-01

    We calculate decadal aerosol direct and indirect (warm cloud) radiative forcings from US anthropogenic sources over the 1950-2050 period. Past and future aerosol distributions are constructed using GEOS-Chem and historical emission inventories and future projections from the IPCC A1B scenario. Aerosol simulations are evaluated with observed spatial distributions and 1980-2010 trends of aerosol concentrations and wet deposition in the contiguous US. Direct and indirect radiative forcing is calculated using the GISS general circulation model and monthly mean aerosol distributions from GEOS-Chem. The radiative forcing from US anthropogenic aerosols is strongly localized over the eastern US. We find that its magnitude peaked in 1970-1990, with values over the eastern US (east of 100 deg W) of -2.0Wm(exp-2 for direct forcing including contributions from sulfate (-2.0Wm-2), nitrate (-0.2Wm(exp-2), organic carbon (-0.2Wm(exp-2), and black carbon (+0.4Wm(exp-2). The uncertainties in radiative forcing due to aerosol radiative properties are estimated to be about 50 %. The aerosol indirect effect is estimated to be of comparable magnitude to the direct forcing. We find that the magnitude of the forcing declined sharply from 1990 to 2010 (by 0.8Wm(exp-2) direct and 1.0Wm(exp-2 indirect), mainly reflecting decreases in SO2 emissions, and project that it will continue declining post-2010 but at a much slower rate since US SO2 emissions have already declined by almost 60% from their peak. This suggests that much of the warming effect of reducing US anthropogenic aerosol sources has already been realized. The small positive radiative forcing from US BC emissions (+0.3Wm(exp-2 over the eastern US in 2010; 5% of the global forcing from anthropogenic BC emissions worldwide) suggests that a US emission control strategy focused on BC would have only limited climate benefit.

  18. The CSIRO Mk3L climate system model version 1.0 – Part 2: Response to external forcings

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. J. Phipps

    2012-05-01

    Full Text Available The CSIRO Mk3L climate system model is a coupled general circulation model, designed primarily for millennial-scale climate simulation and palaeoclimate research. Mk3L includes components which describe the atmosphere, ocean, sea ice and land surface, and combines computational efficiency with a stable and realistic control climatology. It is freely available to the research community. This paper evaluates the response of the model to external forcings which correspond to past and future changes in the climate system.

    A simulation of the mid-Holocene climate is performed, in which changes in the seasonal and meridional distribution of incoming solar radiation are imposed. Mk3L correctly simulates increased summer temperatures at northern mid-latitudes and cooling in the tropics. However, it is unable to capture some of the regional-scale features of the mid-Holocene climate, with the precipitation over Northern Africa being deficient. The model simulates a reduction of between 7 and 15% in the amplitude of El Niño-Southern Oscillation, a smaller decrease than that implied by the palaeoclimate record. However, the realism of the simulated ENSO is limited by the model's relatively coarse spatial resolution.

    Transient simulations of the late Holocene climate are then performed. The evolving distribution of insolation is imposed, and an acceleration technique is applied and assessed. The model successfully captures the temperature changes in each hemisphere and the upward trend in ENSO variability. However, the lack of a dynamic vegetation scheme does not allow it to simulate an abrupt desertification of the Sahara.

    To assess the response of Mk3L to other forcings, transient simulations of the last millennium are performed. Changes in solar irradiance, atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations and volcanic emissions are applied to the model. The model is again broadly successful at simulating larger-scale changes in the

  19. Impact of GCM boundary forcing on regional climate modeling of West African summer monsoon precipitation and circulation features

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kebe, Ibourahima; Sylla, Mouhamadou Bamba; Omotosho, Jerome Adebayo; Nikiema, Pinghouinde Michel; Gibba, Peter; Giorgi, Filippo

    2017-03-01

    In this study, the latest version of the International Centre for Theoretical Physics Regional Climate Model (RegCM4) driven by three CMIP5 Global Climate Models (GCMs) is used at 25 km grid spacing over West Africa to investigate the impact of lateral boundary forcings on the simulation of monsoon precipitation and its relationship with regional circulation features. We find that the RegCM4 experiments along with their multimodel ensemble generally reproduce the location of the main precipitation characteristics over the region and improve upon the corresponding driving GCMs. However, the provision of different forcing boundary conditions leads to substantially different precipitation magnitudes and spatial patterns. For instance, while RegCM4 nested within GFDL-ESM-2M and HadGEM2-ES exhibits some underestimations of precipitation and an excessively narrow Intertropical Convergence Zone, the MPI-ESM-MR driven run produces precipitation spatial distribution and magnitudes more similar to observations. Such a superior performance originates from a much better simulation of the interactions between baroclinicity, temperature gradient and African Easterly Jet along with an improved connection between the Isentropic Potential Vorticity, its gradient and the African Easterly Waves dynamics. We conclude that a good performing GCM in terms of monsoon dynamical features (in this case MPI-ESM-MR) is needed to drive RCMs in order to achieve a better representation of the West Africa summer monsoon precipitation.

  20. Arctic sea ice response to atmospheric forcings with varying levels of anthropogenic warming and climate variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Jinlun; Steele, Michael; Schweiger, Axel

    2010-10-01

    Numerical experiments are conducted to project arctic sea ice responses to varying levels of future anthropogenic warming and climate variability over 2010-2050. A summer ice-free Arctic Ocean is likely by the mid-2040s if arctic surface air temperature (SAT) increases 4°C by 2050 and climate variability is similar to the past relatively warm two decades. If such a SAT increase is reduced by one-half or if a future Arctic experiences a range of SAT fluctuation similar to the past five decades, a summer ice-free Arctic Ocean would be unlikely before 2050. If SAT increases 4°C by 2050, summer ice volume decreases to very low levels (10-37% of the 1978-2009 summer mean) as early as 2025 and remains low in the following years, while summer ice extent continues to fluctuate annually. Summer ice volume may be more sensitive to warming while summer ice extent more sensitive to climate variability. The rate of annual mean ice volume decrease relaxes approaching 2050. This is because, while increasing SAT increases summer ice melt, a thinner ice cover increases winter ice growth. A thinner ice cover also results in a reduced ice export, which helps to further slow ice volume loss. Because of enhanced winter ice growth, arctic winter ice extent remains nearly stable and therefore appears to be a less sensitive climate indicator.

  1. The role of forcing and internal dynamics in explaining the "Medieval Climate Anomaly"

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Goosse, H.; Crespin, E.; Dubinkina, S.; Loutre, M.F.; Mann, M.E.; Renssen, H.; Sallaz- Damaz, Y.; Shindell, D.

    2012-01-01

    Proxy reconstructions suggest that peak global temperature during the past warm interval known as the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA, roughly 950–1250 AD) has been exceeded only during the most recent decades. To better understand the origin of this warm period, we use model simulations constrained b

  2. High-resolution terrestrial record of orbital climate forcing in coal

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Large, D.J.; Jones, T.F.; Somerfield, C.; Gorringe, M.C.; Spiro, B.; Macquaker, J.H.S.; Atkin, B.P. [University of Nottingham, Nottingham (United Kingdom). School of Chemical Environmental & Mining Engineering

    2003-04-01

    Pre-Quaternary terrestrial climate records in which time has been calibrated using astronomical cycles are, with the exception of lacustrine proxies, poorly represented in the geological record. This omission is a significant gap in our knowledge of ancient climate systems. Here the authors present new evidence of orbital periodicities in an 18.3-m-thick late Paleocene coal and conclude that coal has the potential to provide continuous time-calibrated terrestrial climate data. Spectral analysis of changes in the relative proportions of vitrinite to inertinite, two environmentally sensitive coal macerals, reveals several characteristic frequencies, some of which display evidence of amplitude modulation every five to six cycles. Combining this observation with depositional time limitations derived from present-day rates of carbon accumulation in mires, the characteristic frequencies as resulting from precession and obliquity and their influence on oxidation and decay are interpreted. Using the inferred precession component of the data to derive an internal time scale, it is estimated that the Wyodak coal was deposited over a period of similar to 414 k.y. with a long-term carbon sequestration rate of 29 g m{sup -2} yr{sup -1}. The identification of an internal astronomical time scale in coal is an important step toward realizing the potential for coal to extend our high-resolution knowledge of Earth's terrestrial climate back to the formation of the first peat deposits at 360 Ma.

  3. Atmospheric blocking in a high resolution climate model: influences of mean state, orography and eddy forcing

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Berckmans, J.N.J.; Woollings, T.; Demory, M.; Vidale, P.; Roberts, M.

    2013-01-01

    An underestimate of atmospheric blocking occurrence is a well-known limitation of many climate models. This article presents an analysis of Northern Hemisphere winter blocking in an atmospheric model with increased horizontal resolution. European blocking frequency increases with model resolution, a

  4. Synchronous fire activity in the tropical high Andes: an indication of regional climate forcing

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Roman-Cuesta, R.M.; Carmona-Moreno, C.; Lizcano, G.; New, M.; Silman, M.R.; Knoke, T.; Malhi, Y.; Oliveras Menor, I.; Asbjornsen, H.; Vuille, M.

    2014-01-01

    Global climate models suggest enhanced warming of the tropical mid and upper troposphere, with larger temperature rise rates at higher elevations. Changes in fire activity are amongst the most significant ecological consequences of rising temperatures and changing hydrological properties in mountain

  5. Global analysis theory of climate system and its applications

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2003-01-01

    The idea and main theoretical results of the global analysis theory of climate system are briefly summarized in this paper. A theorem on the global behavior of climate system is given, i.e. there exists a global attractor in the dynamical equations of climate, any state of climate system will be evolved into the global attractor as time increases, indicating the nonlinear adjustment process of climate system to external forcing. The different effects of external forcing, dissipation and nonlinearity on the long-term behavior of solutions are pointed out, and some main applications of the global analysis theory are also introduced. Especially, three applications, the adjustment and evolution processes of climate, the principle of numerical model design and the optimally numerical integration, are discussed.

  6. Study of Radiative Forcing of Dust Aerosols and its impact on Climate Characteristics

    KAUST Repository

    Qureshi, Fawwad H

    2012-12-01

    The purpose of following project is to study the effect of dust aerosols on the radiative forcing which is directly related to the surface temperature. A single column radiative convective model is used for simulation purpose. A series of simulations have been performed by varying the amount of dust aerosols present in the atmosphere to study the trends in ground temperature, heating rate and radiative forcing for both its longwave and shortwave components. A case study for dust storm is also performed as dust storms are common in Arabian Peninsula. A sensitivity analyses is also performed to study the relationship of surface temperature minimum and maximum against aerosol concentration, single scattering albedo and asymmetry factor. These analyses are performed to get more insight into the role of dust aerosols on radiative forcing.

  7. Nonlinear oscillation of nanoelectro-mechanical resonators using energy balance method: considering the size effect and the van der Waals force

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ghalambaz, Mohammad; Ghalambaz, Mehdi; Edalatifar, Mohammad

    2016-03-01

    The energy balance method is utilized to analyze the oscillation of a nonlinear nanoelectro-mechanical system resonator. The resonator comprises an electrode, which is embedded between two substrates. Two types of clamped-clamped and cantilever nano-resonators are studied. The effects of the van der Waals attractions, Casimir force, the small size, the fringing field, the mid-plane stretching, and the axial load are taken into account. The governing partial differential equation of the resonator is reduced using the Galerkin method. The energy method is applied to obtain an analytical solution without considering any linearization or small parameter. The results of the present study are compared with the results available in the literature. In addition, the results of the present analytical solution are compared with the Runge-Kutta numerical results. An excellent agreement between the present analytical solution, numerical solution, and the results available in the literature was found. The influences of the van der Waals force, Casimir force, size effect, and fringing field effect on the oscillation frequency of resonators are studied. The results indicate that the presence of the intermolecular forces (van der Waals), Casimir force, and fringing field effect decreases the oscillation frequency of the resonator. In contrast, the presence of the size effect increases the oscillation frequency of the resonator.

  8. Neogene tectonics and climate forcing of carnivora dispersals between Asia and North America

    OpenAIRE

    2015-01-01

    Exchange records of terrestrial mammals can be combined with available tectonic and climatic documents to evaluate major biological and environmental events. Previous studies identified four carnivoran dispersals between Eurasia and North America in the Neogene, namely, at ∼ 20, 13–11, 8–7, and ∼ 4 Ma. In order to evaluate driving mechanism of these biological events, we collected, compared and analyzed a large number of published records. The result...

  9. Antarctic Forcing of Abrupt Global Climate Change during Oxygen Isotope Stage 3.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Turney, C. S.; Palmer, J. G.

    2015-12-01

    Contrasting Greenland and Antarctic temperature trends during the late Pleistocene (60 to 11.5 ka) are thought to be driven by imbalances in the rate of formation of North Atlantic and Antarctic deep water (the 'bipolar seesaw'), with millennial-scale cooling Dansgaard-Oeschger (D-O) events in the north leading warming in the south. Robustly testing this paradigm, however, requires a level of chronological precision currently lacking in terrestrial and marine records. Here we report a bidecadally-resolved New Zealand tree-ring sequence spanning two millennia that preserves a record of atmospheric radiocarbon (14C), allowing us to precisely align terrestrial, marine and ice sequences across a period encompassing ice-rafted debris event Heinrich 3 (H3) in the North Atlantic and Antarctic Isotope Maximum 4 (AIM4) in the Southern Hemisphere. We observe no significant difference in atmospheric and marine 14C records across H3 suggesting negligible impact on Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) but find that a climate downturn before AIM4 had a global impact, with warming in the North Atlantic (D-O 5.1) and a dramatic change in low latitude hydroclimate. Using the fully coupled CSIRO Mk3L climate system model we find that these trends are consistent with an Antarctic meltwater event propagated globally by atmospheric teleconnections. Our results suggest Southern Ocean dynamics played a significant role in driving global climate change across this period with implications for abrupt events through the late Pleistocene.

  10. Landscape reorganization under changing climatic forcing: Results from an experimental landscape

    Science.gov (United States)

    Singh, Arvind; Reinhardt, Liam; Foufoula-Georgiou, Efi

    2015-06-01

    Understanding how landscapes respond to climate dynamics in terms of macroscale (average topographic features) and microscale (landform reorganization) is of interest both for deciphering past climates from today's landscapes and for predicting future landscapes in view of recent climatic trends. Although several studies have addressed macro-scale response, only a few have focused on quantifying smaller-scale basin reorganization. To that goal, a series of controlled laboratory experiments were conducted where a self-organized complete drainage network emerged under constant precipitation and uplift dynamics. Once steady state was achieved, the landscape was subjected to a fivefold increase in precipitation (transient state). Throughout the evolution, high-resolution spatiotemporal topographic data in the form of digital elevation models were collected. The steady state landscape was shown to possess three distinct geomorphic regimes (unchannelized hillslopes, debris-dominated channels, and fluvially dominated channels). During transient state, landscape reorganization was observed to be driven by hillslopes via accelerated erosion, ridge lowering, channel widening, and reduction of basin relief as opposed to channel base-level reduction. Quantitative metrics on which these conclusions were based included slope-area curve, correlation analysis of spatial and temporal elevation increments, and wavelet spectral analysis of the evolving landscapes. Our results highlight that landscape reorganization in response to increased precipitation seems to follow "an arrow of scale": major elevation change initiates at the hillslope scale driving erosional regime change at intermediate scales and further cascading to geomorphic changes at the channel scale as time evolves.

  11. Groundwater-soil moisture-climate interactions: lessons from idealized model experiments with forced water table depth

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ducharne, Agnès; Lo, Min-Hui; Decharme, Bertrand; Wang, Fuxing; Cheruy, Frédérique; Ghattas, Josefine; Chien, Rong-You; lan, Chia-Wei; Colin, Jeanne; Tyteca, Sophie

    2016-04-01

    Groundwater (GW) constitutes by far the largest volume of liquid freshwater on Earth. The most active part is soil moisture (SM), recognized as a key variable of land/atmosphere interactions, especially in so-called transition zones, where/when SM varies between wet and dry values. But GW can also be stored in deeper reservoirs than soils, in particular unconfined aquifer systems, in which the saturated part is called the water table (WT). The latter is characterized by slow and mostly horizontal water flows towards the river network, with well-known buffering effects on streamflow variability. Where/when the WT is shallow enough, it can also sustain SM by means of capillary rise, thus increase evapotranspiration (ET), with potential impact on the climate system (including temperatures and precipitation). The large residence time of GW may also increase the Earth system's memory, with consequences on the persistence of extreme events, hydro-climatic predictability, and anthropogenic climate change, particularly the magnitude of regional warming. Here, our main goal is to explore the potential impacts of the water table depth (WTD) on historical climate through idealized model analyses. To this end, we force three state-of-the art land surface models (LSMs), namely CLM, ORCHIDEE, and SURFEX, with prescribed WTDs ranging from 0.5 to 10 m. The LSMs are run either off-line or coupled to their parent climate model, following LMIP/AMIP-like protocols for intercomparability. Within this framework, we want to assess the sensitivity of ET and the simulated climate to the WTD in a systematic way. In particular, we will identify and compare the patterns of the critical WTD, defined as the deepest one to achieve a significant change in ET. To this end, we estimate derivatives of ET with respect to WTD, which tell how the sensitivity of ET to a unit change in WTD evolves with WTD. In each grid-point, these derivatives can be used to define the critical WTD, given a threshold ET

  12. Bifurcations and strange attractors in the Lorenz-84 climate model with seasonal forcing

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Broer, H; Simo, C; Vitolo, R

    2002-01-01

    A low-dimensional model of general circulation of the atmosphere is investigated. The differential equations are subject to periodic forcing, where the period is one year. A three-dimensional Poincare mapping P depends on three control parameters F, G, and epsilon, the latter being the relative ampl

  13. Quasi-periodic Henon-like attractors in the Lorenz-84 climate model with seasonal forcing

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Broer, HW; Vitolo, R; Simo, C; Dumortier, F; Broer, H; Mawhin, J; Vanderbauwhede, A; Lunel, SV

    2005-01-01

    A class of strange attractors is described, occurring in a low-dimensional model of general atmospheric circulation. The differential equations of the system are subject to periodic forcing, where the period is one year - as suggested by Lorenz in 1984. The dynamics of the system is described in ter

  14. Weak hydrological sensitivity to temperature change over land, independent of climate forcing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Samset, Bjorn H.

    2017-04-01

    As the global surface temperature changes, so will patterns and rates of precipitation. Theoretically, these changes can be understood in terms of changes to the energy balance of the atmosphere, caused by introducing drivers of climate change such as greenhouse gases, aerosols and altered insolation. Climate models, however, disagree strongly in their prediction of precipitation changes, both for historical and future emission pathways, and per degree of surface warming in idealized experiments. The latter value, often termed the apparent hydrological sensitivity, has also been found to differ substantially between climate drivers. Here, we present the global and regional hydrological sensitivity (HS) to surface temperature changes, for perturbations to CO2, CH4, sulfate and black carbon concentrations, and solar irradiance. Based on results from 10 climate models participating in the Precipitation Driver and Response Model Intercomparison Project (PDRMIP), we show how modeled global mean precipitation increases by 2-3 % per kelvin of global mean surface warming, independent of driver, when the effects of rapid adjustments are removed. Previously reported differences in response between drivers are therefore mainly ascribable to rapid atmospheric adjustment processes. All models show a sharp contrast in behavior over land and over ocean, with a strong surface temperature driven (slow) ocean HS of 3-5 %/K, while the slow land HS is only 0-2 %/K. Separating the response into convective and large-scale cloud processes, we find larger inter-model differences, in particular over land regions. Large-scale precipitation changes are most relevant at high latitudes, while the equatorial HS is dominated by convective precipitation changes. Black carbon stands out as the driver with the largest inter-model slow HS variability, and also the strongest contrast between a weak land and strong sea response. Convective precipitation in the Arctic and large scale precipitation

  15. Simulated sensitivity of the tropical climate to extratropical thermal forcing: tropical SSTs and African land surface

    Science.gov (United States)

    Talento, Stefanie; Barreiro, Marcelo

    2016-08-01

    This study investigates the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) response to extratropical thermal forcing applied to an atmospheric general circulation model coupled to slab ocean and land models. We focus on the relative roles of the atmosphere, tropical sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and continental surface temperatures in the ITCZ response to the imposed forcing. The forcing consists of cooling in one hemisphere and warming in the other poleward of 40°, with zero global average. Three sets of experiments are performed: in the first the slab ocean and land models are applied globally; in the second the tropical SSTs are kept fixed while the slab land model is applied globally; in the third, in addition, surface temperatures over Africa are kept fixed. Realistic boundary surface conditions are used. We find that the ITCZ shifts towards the warmer hemisphere and that the stronger the forcing, the larger the shift. When the constraint of fixed tropical SST is imposed we find that the ITCZ response is strongly weakened, but it is still not negligible in particular over the Atlantic Ocean and Africa where the precipitation anomalies are of the order of 20 and 60 %, respectively, of the magnitude obtained without the SST restriction. Finally, when the constraint of the African surface temperature is incorporated we find that the ITCZ response completely vanishes, indicating that the ITCZ response to the extratropical forcing is not possible just trough purely atmospheric processes, but needs the involvement of either the tropical SST or the continental surface temperatures. The clear-sky longwave radiation feedback is highlighted as the main physical mechanism operating behind the land-based extratropical to tropical communication.

  16. Mutual Inductance and Magnetic Force Calculations for Bitter Disk Coil (Pancake with Nonlinear Radial Current and Filamentary Circular Coil with Azimuthal Current

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Slobodan Babic

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Bitter coils are electromagnets used for the generation of extremely strong magnetic fields superior to 30 T. In this paper we calculate the mutual inductance and the magnetic force between Bitter disk (pancake coil with the nonlinear radial current and the circular filamentary coil with the azimuthal current. The close form expressed over complete elliptic integrals of the first and second kind as well as Heuman’s Lambda function is obtained for this configuration either for the mutual inductance or for the magnetic force. The results of this method are compared with those obtained by the improved modified filament method for the presented configuration. All results are in an excellent agreement.

  17. Added damping of a wind turbine rotor: Two-dimensional discretization expressing the nonlinear wind-force dependency

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Van der Male, P.; Van Dalen, K.N.; Metrikine, A.

    2014-01-01

    In determining wind forces on wind turbine blades, and subsequently on the tower and the foundation, the blade response velocity cannot be neglected. This velocity alters the wind force, which depends on the wind velocity relative to that of the blades This blade response velocity component of the w

  18. Added damping of a wind turbine rotor: Two-dimensional discretization expressing the nonlinear wind-force dependency

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Van der Male, P.; Van Dalen, K.N.; Metrikine, A.

    2014-01-01

    In determining wind forces on wind turbine blades, and subsequently on the tower and the foundation, the blade response velocity cannot be neglected. This velocity alters the wind force, which depends on the wind velocity relative to that of the blades This blade response velocity component of the

  19. The Flux-Anomaly-Forced Model Intercomparison Project (FAFMIP) contribution to CMIP6: investigation of sea-level and ocean climate change in response to CO2 forcing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gregory, Jonathan M.; Bouttes, Nathaelle; Griffies, Stephen M.; Haak, Helmuth; Hurlin, William J.; Jungclaus, Johann; Kelley, Maxwell; Lee, Warren G.; Marshall, John; Romanou, Anastasia; Saenko, Oleg A.; Stammer, Detlef; Winton, Michael

    2016-11-01

    The Flux-Anomaly-Forced Model Intercomparison Project (FAFMIP) aims to investigate the spread in simulations of sea-level and ocean climate change in response to CO2 forcing by atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs). It is particularly motivated by the uncertainties in projections of ocean heat uptake, global-mean sea-level rise due to thermal expansion and the geographical patterns of sea-level change due to ocean density and circulation change. FAFMIP has three tier-1 experiments, in which prescribed surface flux perturbations of momentum, heat and freshwater respectively are applied to the ocean in separate AOGCM simulations. All other conditions are as in the pre-industrial control. The prescribed fields are typical of pattern and magnitude of changes in these fluxes projected by AOGCMs for doubled CO2 concentration. Five groups have tested the experimental design with existing AOGCMs. Their results show diversity in the pattern and magnitude of changes, with some common qualitative features. Heat and water flux perturbation cause the dipole in sea-level change in the North Atlantic, while momentum and heat flux perturbation cause the gradient across the Antarctic Circumpolar Current. The Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) declines in response to the heat flux perturbation, and there is a strong positive feedback on this effect due to the consequent cooling of sea-surface temperature in the North Atlantic, which enhances the local heat input to the ocean. The momentum and water flux perturbations do not substantially affect the AMOC. Heat is taken up largely as a passive tracer in the Southern Ocean, which is the region of greatest heat input, while the weakening of the AMOC causes redistribution of heat towards lower latitudes. Future analysis of these and other phenomena with the wider range of CMIP6 FAFMIP AOGCMs will benefit from new diagnostics of temperature and salinity tendencies, which will enable investigation of the

  20. Global warming and climate forcing by recent albedo changes on Mars

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fenton, L.K.; Geissler, P.E.; Haberle, R.M.

    2007-01-01

    For hundreds of years, scientists have tracked the changing appearance of Mars, first by hand drawings and later by photographs. Because of this historical record, many classical albedo patterns have long been known to shift in appearance over time. Decadal variations of the martian surface albedo are generally attributed to removal and deposition of small amounts of relatively bright dust on the surface. Large swaths of the surface (up to 56 million km2) have been observed to darken or brighten by 10 per cent or more. It is unknown, however, how these albedo changes affect wind circulation, dust transport and the feedback between these processes and the martian climate. Here we present predictions from a Mars general circulation model, indicating that the observed interannual albedo alterations strongly influence the martian environment. Results indicate enhanced wind stress in recently darkened areas and decreased wind stress in brightened areas, producing a positive feedback system in which the albedo changes strengthen the winds that generate the changes. The simulations also predict a net annual global warming of surface air temperatures by ???0.65 K, enhancing dust lifting by increasing the likelihood of dust devil generation. The increase in global dust lifting by both wind stress and dust devils may affect the mechanisms that trigger large dust storm initiation, a poorly understood phenomenon, unique to Mars. In addition, predicted increases in summertime air temperatures at high southern latitudes would contribute to the rapid and steady scarp retreat that has been observed in the south polar residual ice for the past four Mars years. Our results suggest that documented albedo changes affect recent climate change and large-scale weather patterns on Mars, and thus albedo variations are a necessary component of future atmospheric and climate studies. ??2007 Nature Publishing Group.

  1. Caves, Carbonates and Climate: Karst Landscape Development through Environmental Forcing, Little Cayman Island

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hsia, S.; Ouellette, G., Jr.; Manfrino, C.

    2016-12-01

    The Cayman Islands are situated in the west-central Caribbean Sea, between Cuba and the Yucatan Peninsula. Little Cayman Island (LCI) is relatively underdeveloped and understudied in comparison to its sister islands, Grand Cayman and Cayman Brac, and hosts less than 200 permanent residents over a 30 square kilometer area. However, like its sister islands, LCI is a small carbonate platform derived from reef building during the Oligocene, Miocene, and Quaternary. The shared geologic history of the Cayman Islands along with minimal human disturbance makes LCI an ideal site to study an island karst landscape. Conduction of field surveys, stratigraphic and petrologic comparisons between primary lithologic formations, and compilation of a geospatial inventory of karst features and lithology of LCI using GIS revealed novel insights into landscape evolution on LCI. In addition to surface karst surveys, several caves on the island were mapped. Cave morphologies suggest that evolution of LCI karst features have been driven by both hydroclimate, as well as salt and freshwater mixing, modulated by sea level fluctuations. These findings are mirrored in the lithology of partially dolomitized Miocene carbonates, which contain paleo-karst fill features and reveal hydroclimate influence, as well as enhanced resistance to dissolution in the present day, ostensibly from submersion in Mg-rich sea waters prior to the Quaternary. These findings shed light on the complex relationship of climate, geology, and karst landscape development on this particular carbonate island. This information is critical in anticipating structural and hydrogeological integrity on LCI under future climate change scenarios and serves as an example of the interplay linking climate and geologic processes to karst landscape development on small carbonate islands.

  2. Global warming and climate forcing by recent albedo changes on Mars.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fenton, Lori K; Geissler, Paul E; Haberle, Robert M

    2007-04-05

    For hundreds of years, scientists have tracked the changing appearance of Mars, first by hand drawings and later by photographs. Because of this historical record, many classical albedo patterns have long been known to shift in appearance over time. Decadal variations of the martian surface albedo are generally attributed to removal and deposition of small amounts of relatively bright dust on the surface. Large swaths of the surface (up to 56 million km2) have been observed to darken or brighten by 10 per cent or more. It is unknown, however, how these albedo changes affect wind circulation, dust transport and the feedback between these processes and the martian climate. Here we present predictions from a Mars general circulation model, indicating that the observed interannual albedo alterations strongly influence the martian environment. Results indicate enhanced wind stress in recently darkened areas and decreased wind stress in brightened areas, producing a positive feedback system in which the albedo changes strengthen the winds that generate the changes. The simulations also predict a net annual global warming of surface air temperatures by approximately 0.65 K, enhancing dust lifting by increasing the likelihood of dust devil generation. The increase in global dust lifting by both wind stress and dust devils may affect the mechanisms that trigger large dust storm initiation, a poorly understood phenomenon, unique to Mars. In addition, predicted increases in summertime air temperatures at high southern latitudes would contribute to the rapid and steady scarp retreat that has been observed in the south polar residual ice for the past four Mars years. Our results suggest that documented albedo changes affect recent climate change and large-scale weather patterns on Mars, and thus albedo variations are a necessary component of future atmospheric and climate studies.

  3. Water Security, Climate Forcings and Public Health Impacts in Emerging Regions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Serman, E. A.; Akanda, A. S.; Craver, V.; Boving, T. B.

    2014-12-01

    Our world is rapidly urbanizing, with more than 80% of world's population is expected to be living in a city by the end of the century. A majority of these nations are rapidly urbanizing due to massive rural-to-urban migratory trends, with rapid development of unplanned urban settlements, or slums, with lack of adequate water or sanitation facilities and other municipal amenities. With global environmental change, natural disasters will expose millions more to drought, floods, and disease epidemics, and existing vulnerabilities will worsen. At the same time, rapid urbanization and fast changing land-use leads to widespread damage of infrastructure by stormwater, especially in lowlands and economically poor areas. The factor that consistently stands out among different cities from both the developed and the developing worlds is that the slums are typically the most vulnerable to water related natural hazards and climatic threats, such as water scarcity and quality issues in drought conditions, or water and sanitation breakdown and stormwater contamination problems. Onsite or decentralized water, wastewater and stormwater treatment as well as point-of-use water treatment options can be an economic, safe, and reliable alternative to conventional large-scale treatment especially, in urban fringes as well as rural areas. These systems can be designed to fit communities in terms of their economic, cultural, environmental, and demographic resources. As part of this study, we develop a database of urban water quality and quantity indices such as with urban land-use, water usage, climate, and socio-economic characteristics in various emerging regions in the world. We analyze past and current data to identify and quantify long-term trends and the impacts of large-scale climatic and anthropogenic changes on urban hydrology and health impacts. We specifically focus on five major cities from distinct groups of countries and geographies: Providence, RI, USA from the developed

  4. Regional climate model assessment of the urban land-surface forcing over central Europe

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. Huszar

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available For the purpose of qualifying and quantifying the climate impact of cities and urban surfaces in general on climate of central Europe, the surface parameterization in regional climate model RegCM4 has been extended with the Single-layer Urban Canopy Model (SLUCM. A set of experiments was performed over the period of 2005–2009 for central Europe, either without considering urban surfaces or with the SLUCM treatment. Results show a statistically significant impact of urbanized surfaces on temperature (up to 1.5 K increase in summer as well as on the boundary layer height (increases up to 50 m. Urbanization further influences surface wind with a winter decrease up to −0.6 m s−1, though both increases and decreases were detected in summer depending on the location relative to the cities and daytime (changes up to 0.3 m s−1. Urban surfaces significantly reduce the humidity over the surface. This impacts the simulated summer precipitation rate, showing a decrease over cities of up to −2 mm day−1. Significant temperature increases are simulated over higher altitudes as well, not only within the urban canopy layer. With the urban parameterization, the climate model better describes the diurnal temperature variation, reducing the cold afternoon and evening bias of RegCM4. Sensitivity experiments were carried out to quantify the response of the meteorological conditions to changes in the parameters specific to the urban environment, such as street width, building height, albedo of the roofs and anthropogenic heat release. The results proved to be rather robust and the choice of the key SLUCM parameters impacts them only slightly (mainly temperature, boundary layer height and wind velocity. Statistically significant impacts are modelled not only over large urbanized areas, but the influence of the cities is also evident over rural areas without major urban surfaces. It is shown that this is the result of the combined effect of the distant

  5. Regional climate model assessment of the urban land-surface forcing over central Europe

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. Huszar

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available For the purpose of qualifying and quantifying the climate impact of cities and urban surfaces in general on climate of central Europe, the surface parameterization in regional climate model RegCM4 has been extended with the Single Layer Urban Canopy Model (SLUCM. A set of experiments was performed over the period of 2005–2009 for central Europe, either without considering urban surfaces or with the SLUCM treatment. Results show a statistically significant impact of urbanized surfaces on temperature (up to 1.5 K increase in summer as well as on the boundary layer height (increases up to 50 m. Urbanization further influences surface wind with a winter decrease up to −0.6 m s−1, though both increases and decreases were detected in summer depending on the location relative to the cities and daytime (changes up to 0.3 m s−1. Urban surfaces significantly reduce evaporation and thus the humidity over the surface. This impacts the simulated summer precipitation rate, showing decrease over cities up to −2 mm day−1. Significant temperature increases are simulated over higher elevations as well, not only within the urban canopy layer. With the urban parameterization, the climate model better describes the diurnal temperature variation, reducing the cold afternoon and evening bias of RegCM4. Sensitivity experiments were carried out to quantify the response of the meteorological conditions to changes in the parameters specific to the urban environment such as street width, building height, albedo of the roofs and anthropogenic heat release. The results proved to be rather robust and the choice of the key SLUCM parameters impacts them only slightly (mainly temperature, boundary layer height and wind velocity. Statistically significant impacts are modeled not only over large urbanized areas, but the influence of the cities is also evident over rural areas without major urban surfaces. It is shown that this is the result of the combined effect of

  6. Future discharge drought across climate regions around the world modelled with a synthetic hydrological modelling approach forced by three General Circulation Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N. Wanders

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available Hydrological droughts characteristics (drought in groundwater and streamflow likely will change in the 21st century as a results of climate change. Magnitude and directionality of these changes and their dependency on climatology and catchment characteristics, however, is largely unknown. In this study a conceptual hydrological model was forced by downscaled and bias-corrected outcome from three General Circulation Models for the A2 emission scenario (GCM forced models, and the WATCH Forcing Data re-analysis dataset(reference model. The threshold level method was applied to investigate drought occurrence, duration and deficit volume. Results for the control period (1971–2000 show that the drought characteristics of each GCM forced model reasonably agree with the reference model for most of the climate types, suggesting that the climate model's results after post-processing produce realistic outcome for global drought analyses. For the near future (2021–2050 and far future (2071–2100 the GCM forced models show a decrease in drought occurrence for all major climates around the world and increase of both average drought duration and deficit volume of the remaining drought events. The largest decrease in hydrological drought occurrence is expected in cold (D-climates where global warming results in a decreased length of the snow season and an increased precipitation. In the dry B-climates the smallest decrease in drought occurrence is expected to occur, which probably will lead to even more severe water scarcity. However, in the extreme climate regions (desert and polar, the analysis for the control period showed that projections are in these regions most uncertain. On a global scale the increase in hydrological drought duration and severity will lead to a higher impact of drought events, which urges water resources managers to timely anticipate on the increased risk on more severe drought in groundwater and streamflow and to design pro

  7. Future discharge drought across climate regions around the world modelled with a synthetic hydrological modelling approach forced by three general circulation models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wanders, N.; Van Lanen, H. A. J.

    2015-03-01

    Hydrological drought characteristics (drought in groundwater and streamflow) likely will change in the 21st century as a result of climate change. The magnitude and directionality of these changes and their dependency on climatology and catchment characteristics, however, is uncertain. In this study a conceptual hydrological model was forced by downscaled and bias-corrected outcome from three general circulation models for the SRES A2 emission scenario (GCM forced models), and the WATCH Forcing Data set (reference model). The threshold level method was applied to investigate drought occurrence, duration and severity. Results for the control period (1971-2000) show that the drought characteristics of each GCM forced model reasonably agree with the reference model for most of the climate types, suggesting that the climate models' results after post-processing produce realistic outcomes for global drought analyses. For the near future (2021-2050) and far future (2071-2100) the GCM forced models show a decrease in drought occurrence for all major climates around the world and increase of both average drought duration and deficit volume of the remaining drought events. The largest decrease in hydrological drought occurrence is expected in cold (D) climates where global warming results in a decreased length of the snow season and an increased precipitation. In the dry (B) climates the smallest decrease in drought occurrence is expected to occur, which probably will lead to even more severe water scarcity. However, in the extreme climate regions (desert and polar), the drought analysis for the control period showed that projections of hydrological drought characteristics are most uncertain. On a global scale the increase in hydrological drought duration and severity in multiple regions will lead to a higher impact of drought events, which should motivate water resource managers to timely anticipate the increased risk of more severe drought in groundwater and streamflow

  8. The response of reworked aerosols to climate through estimation of inter-particle forces

    OpenAIRE

    Assadi Langroudi, Arya; Jefferson, I.

    2016-01-01

    This paper describes the first use of inter-particle force measurement in reworked aerosols to better understand the mechanics of dust deflation and its consequent ecological ramifications. Dust is likely to carry hydrocarbons and micro-organisms including human pathogens and cultured microbes and thereby is a threat to plants, animals and human. Present-day global aerosol emissions are substantially greater than in 1850; however, the projected influx rates are highly disputable. This uncerta...

  9. Nonlinear Rossby waves near the equator with complete Coriolis force%近赤道完整Coriolis力作用下的非线性Rossby波

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    杨红丽; 刘福梅; 王丹妮; 杨联贵

    2016-01-01

    Nonlinear Rossby Waves near the equator in a potential vorticity equation which includes both the vertical and horizontal components of Coriolis force are studied.The wave evolution is described by the inhomo-geneous Boussinesq equation or the modified Korteweg-de Vries equation depending on the different perturbation methods.From the evolution equations,the effect of the horizontal components of Coriolis force on the nonlinear Rossby waves is evident.As expected,the equations derived also include,as special cases,those obtained before.%从既含有Coriolis力垂直分量又含有水平分量的位涡方程出发,采用不同的摄动方法推导了近赤道非线性Rossby波的演化方程,得到非线性Rossby波振幅演化满足非齐次Boussinesq方程或改进的Korteweg-de Vries方程.从演化方程可以看出Coriolis力水平分量对非线性Rossby波的影响,并且本文取特殊情况时包括了已有的一些结果.

  10. Regional Climate Variability Responses to Future Land Surface Forcing in the Brazilian Amazon

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tao Zhang

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Tropical deforestation could destabilize regional climate changes. This paper aimed to model the potential climatological variability caused by future forest vulnerability in the Brazilian Amazon over the 21th century. The underlying land surface changes between 2005 and 2100 are first projected based on the respectable output produced by Hurtt et al. Then the weather research and forecasting (WRF model is applied to assess the impacts of future deforestation on regional climate during 2090–2100. The study results show that the forests in the Brazilian Amazon will primarily be converted into dryland cropland and pasture in the northwest part and into cropland/woodland mosaic in the southeast part, with 5.12% and 13.11%, respectively. These land surface changes will therefore lead to the significant reduction of the sum of sensible heat flux and latent heat flux and precipitation and the increase of the surface temperature. Furthermore, the variability of surface temperature is observed with close link to the deforested areas.

  11. Climate response to orbital forcing across the Oligocene-Miocene boundary.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zachos, J C; Shackleton, N J; Revenaugh, J S; Pälike, H; Flower, B P

    2001-04-13

    Spectral analyses of an uninterrupted 5.5-million-year (My)-long chronology of late Oligocene-early Miocene climate and ocean carbon chemistry from two deep-sea cores recovered in the western equatorial Atlantic reveal variance concentrated at all Milankovitch frequencies. Exceptional spectral power in climate is recorded at the 406-thousand-year (ky) period eccentricity band over a 3.4-million-year period [20 to 23.4 My ago (Ma)] as well as in the 125- and 95-ky bands over a 1.3-million-year period (21.7 to 23.0 Ma) of suspected low greenhouse gas levels. Moreover, a major transient glaciation at the epoch boundary ( approximately 23 Ma), Mi-1, corresponds with a rare orbital congruence involving obliquity and eccentricity. The anomaly, which consists of low-amplitude variance in obliquity (a node) and a minimum in eccentricity, results in an extended period ( approximately 200 ky) of low seasonality orbits favorable to ice-sheet expansion on Antarctica.

  12. Nonlinear and Nonlocal Feedbacks in an Aquaplanet

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feldl, N.; Roe, G.

    2012-12-01

    The power of the feedback framework lies in its ability to reveal the energy pathways by which the climate system adjusts to an imposed forcing. By understanding the closure of the energy budget in as much detail and precision as possible, and within as clean an experimental set-up as possible, we are also able to isolate nonlinear interactions between feedbacks. For an aquaplanet simulation under perpetual equinox conditions, we account for rapid tropospheric adjustments to CO2 and diagnose radiative kernels for this precise model set-up. We characterize the contributions of feedbacks, heat transport, and nonlinearities in controlling the meridional structure of the climate response. The presence of strongly positive subtropical feedbacks, combined with polar amplification, implies a critical role for transport and nonlinear effects, with the latter acting to substantially reduce global climate sensitivity. At the hemispheric scale, a rich picture emerges: net heat divergence away from strong positive feedbacks in the tropics; nonlinearities induced by circulation changes that cool the tropics and warm the high-latitudes; and strong ice-line feedbacks that drive further amplification of polar warming. Overall, these results highlight how spatial patterns in feedbacks affect both the local and nonlocal climate response, with implications for regional predictability.

  13. Coherent anti-phasing between solar forcing and tropical Pacific climate over the past millennium: derivation and implications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Emile-Geay, J.; Cobb, K.; Mann, M. E.; Wittenberg, A. T.

    2011-12-01

    Using a compilation of the most recent, high-resolution proxy data from the tropics, and a state-of-the-art climate reconstruction technique (RegEM iTTLS; Emile-Geay et al, submitted), we reconstruct sea-surface temperature (SST) in the central equatorial Pacific (NINO3.4 region) over the past millennium. Using frozen network experiments and pseudoproxy validation, the reconstruction is found skillful back to 1150 C.E., with inevitable amplitude reduction before 1500 C.E. due to the paucity of proxy predictors. Despite this caveat, wavelet coherency analysis reveals a marked anticorrelation between solar forcing (as estimated from cosmogenic isotope concentrations; Bard et al., 2007; Steinhilber et al., 2009) and the reconstructed NINO3.4 in the ~sim205-year spectral range (DeVries cycle). The phase angle between both signals is 156 ± 33o in this range, indicating that periods of high solar irradiance coincide with cool conditions in the NINO3.4 region, with time lag of 14 ± 19 years. We find this result robust to the reconstruction method, estimate of solar forcing, or analysis method used to estimate the phasing. We then discuss the implication of this result for the response of tropical Pacific climate to radiative forcing. While the anti-phasing seems to favor the ``ocean dynamical thermostat'' hypothesis of Clement et al [1996], this feedback appears subdued in most IPCC-class coupled general circulation models (CGCMs), where it is almost completely compensated by changes in the Pacific trade winds, linked to changes in the vertical structures of atmospheric moisture and temperature (Knutson & Manabe 1995; Held & Soden 2006; Vecchi et al. 2006). If the reconstruction is correct that past NINO3.4 SSTs have varied out of phase with solar irradiance on bicentennial scales, this would pose a new challenge both for CGCM simulations and for our understanding of the equatorial Pacific response to radiative forcing Clement, A. C., Seager, R., Cane, M. A., and Zebiak

  14. Climatic trends in the North Atlantic region during the last 2,000 years in an orbitally forced AOGCM simulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wagner, S.; Zorita, E.

    2013-12-01

    The global coverage of temporal highly resolved proxy-based climate reconstructions is extending to cover the last 2,000 years. It is thus important to fully understand the effect of the orbital forcing at these time scales, as the imprint of the orbital forcing becomes clearer when analyzing climate on time scales longer than the last 1,000 years. The slow-varying orbital parameters affect the seasonal distribution of the incoming solar radiation. Although changes are not as pronounced compared to the mid-Holocene, still distinct differences exist, with lower insolation between February and May and higher insolation between July and October over the mid- and high northern latitudes 2,000 years ago compared to present. Here, we analyze a simulation with the coupled climate model ECHO-G forced only with changes in orbital variations for the last 2,000 years. Other factors such as solar activity and greenhouse gas changes are set to constant pre-industrial values. The modeled near-surface temperature trends reflect the expected orbitally induced insolation trends over the northern hemispheric continents and the Arctic, with increased temperatures during May and reduced temperatures during October. Over the North Atlantic Ocean, however SST trends are not directly consistent to changes in orbital forcing throughout the year, mostly showing little or slight uniform cooling trends. The strength of the maximum overturning circulation in the North Atlantic Ocean also shows no clear-cut trends that can be linked to changes in external forcings. Other variables related to oceanic convection and surface heat fluxes indicate, however, spatially heterogeneous trend patterns. For example, regions south of Greenland and off Labrador show increases in convection that compensate the decreases over the Labrador and the Norwegian Sea. This pattern varies in intensity and spatial extent between the different winter half year months. Changes in oceanic convection and surface heat

  15. The influence of explicit tidal forcing in a climate ocean circulation model

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    YU Yi; LIU Hailong; LAN Jian

    2016-01-01

    The eight main tidal constituents have been implemented in the global ocean general circulation model with approximate 1° horizontal resolution. Compared with the observation data, the patterns of the tidal amplitudes and phases had been simulated fairly well. The responses of mean circulation, temperature and salinity are further investigated in the global sense. When implementing the tidal forcing, wind-driven circulations are reduced, especially those in coastal regions. It is also found that the upper cell transport of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) reduces significantly, while its deep cell transport is slightly enhanced from 9×106 m3/s to 10×106 m3/s. The changes of circulations are all related to the increase of a bottom friction and a vertical viscosity due to the tidal forcing. The temperature and salinity of the model are also significantly affected by the tidal forcing through the enhanced bottom friction, mixing and the changes in mean circulation. The largest changes occur in the coastal regions, where the water is cooled and freshened. In the open ocean, the changes are divided into three layers: cooled and freshened on the surface and below 3 000 m, and warmed and salted in the middle in the open ocean. In the upper two layers, the changes are mainly caused by the enhanced mixing, as warm and salty water sinks and cold and fresh water rises; whereas in the deep layer, the enhancement of the deep overturning circulation accounts for the cold and fresh changes in the deep ocean.

  16. Historical versus contemporary climate forcing on the annual nesting variability of loggerhead sea turtles in the Northwest Atlantic Ocean.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michael D Arendt

    Full Text Available A recent analysis suggested that historical climate forcing on the oceanic habitat of neonate sea turtles explained two-thirds of interannual variability in contemporary loggerhead (Caretta caretta sea turtle nest counts in Florida, where nearly 90% of all nesting by this species in the Northwest Atlantic Ocean occurs. Here, we show that associations between annual nest counts and climate conditions decades prior to nest counts and those conditions one year prior to nest counts were not significantly different. Examination of annual nest count and climate data revealed that statistical artifacts influenced the reported 31-year lag association with nest counts. The projected importance of age 31 neophytes to annual nest counts between 2020 and 2043 was modeled using observed nest counts between 1989 and 2012. Assuming consistent survival rates among cohorts for a 5% population growth trajectory and that one third of the mature female population nests annually, the 41% decline in annual nest counts observed during 1998-2007 was not projected for 2029-2038. This finding suggests that annual nest count trends are more influenced by remigrants than neophytes. Projections under the 5% population growth scenario also suggest that the Peninsular Recovery Unit could attain the demographic recovery criteria of 106,100 annual nests by 2027 if nest counts in 2019 are at least comparable to 2012. Because the first year of life represents only 4% of the time elapsed through age 31, cumulative survival at sea across decades explains most cohort variability, and thus, remigrant population size. Pursuant to the U.S. Endangered Species Act, staggered implementation of protection measures for all loggerhead life stages has taken place since the 1970s. We suggest that the 1998-2007 nesting decline represented a lagged perturbation response to historical anthropogenic impacts, and that subsequent nest count increases since 2008 reflect a potential recovery response.