WorldWideScience

Sample records for nonlinear climatic forcing

  1. Reflections on the nature of non-linear responses of the climate to forcing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ditlevsen, Peter

    2017-04-01

    On centennial to multi-millennial time scales the paleoclimatic record shows that climate responds in a very non-linear way to the external forcing. Perhaps most puzzling is the change in glacial period duration at the Middle Pleistocene Transition. From a dynamical systems perspective, this could be a change in frequency locking between the orbital forcing and the climatic response or it could be a non-linear resonance phenomenon. In both cases the climate system shows a non-trivial oscillatory behaviour. From the records it seems that this behaviour can be described by an effective dynamics on a low-dimensional slow manifold. These different possible dynamical behaviours will be discussed. References: Arianna Marchionne, Peter Ditlevsen, and Sebastian Wieczorek, "Three types of nonlinear resonances", arXiv:1605.00858 Peter Ashwin and Peter Ditlevsen, "The middle Pleistocene transition as a generic bifurcation on a slow manifold", Climate Dynamics, 45, 2683, 2015. Peter D. Ditlevsen, "The bifurcation structure and noise assisted transitions in the Pleistocene glacial cycles", Paleoceanography, 24, PA3204, 2009

  2. Nonlinearities, scale-dependence, and individualism of boreal forest trees to climate forcing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wolken, J. M.; Mann, D. H.; Grant, T. A., III; Lloyd, A. H.; Hollingsworth, T. N.

    2013-12-01

    Our understanding of the climate-growth relationships of trees are complicated by the nonlinearity and variability of these responses through space and time. Furthermore, trees growing at the same site may exhibit opposing growth responses to climate, a phenomenon termed growth divergence. To date the majority of dendrochronological studies in Interior Alaska have involved white spruce growing at treeline, even though black spruce is the most abundant tree species. Although changing climate-growth relationships have been observed in black spruce, there is little known about the multivariate responses of individual trees to temperature and precipitation and whether or not black spruce exhibits growth divergences similar to those documented for white spruce. To evaluate the occurrence of growth divergences in black spruce, we collected cores from trees growing on a steep, north-facing toposequence having a gradient in environmental parameters. Our overall goal was to assess how the climate-growth relationships of black spruce change over space and time. Specifically, we evaluated how topography influences the climate-growth relationships of black spruce and if the growth responses to climate are homogeneous. At the site-level most trees responded negatively to temperature and positively to precipitation, while at the tree-level black spruce exhibited heterogenous growth responses to climate that varied in both space (i.e., between sites) and time (i.e., seasonally and annually). There was a dominant response-type at each site, but there was also considerable variability in the proportion of trees exhibiting each response-type combination. Even in a climatically extreme setting like Alaska's boreal forest, tree responses to climate variability are spatially and temporally complex, as well as highly nonlinear.

  3. The forced nonlinear Schroedinger equation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kaup, D.J.; Hansen, P.J.

    1985-01-01

    The nonlinear Schroedinger equation describes the behaviour of a radio frequency wave in the ionosphere near the reflexion point where nonlinear processes are important. A simple model of this phenomenon leads to the forced nonlinear Schroedinger equation in terms of a nonlinear boundary value problem. A WKB analysis of the time evolution equations for the nonlinear Schroedinger equation in the inverse scattering transform formalism gives a crude order of magnitude estimation of the qualitative behaviour of the solutions. This estimation is compared with the numerical solutions. (D.Gy.)

  4. Climate Forcing Data

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Records of changes in solar irradiance, volcanic aerosols, atmospheric trace gases, and other properties thought to influence climate in the past. Parameter keywords...

  5. Climate forcing by anthropogenic aerosols

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Charlson, R J; Schwartz, S E; Hales, J M; Cess, R D; Coakley, Jr, J A; Hansen, J E; Hofmann, D J [University of Washington, Seattle, WA (USA). Inst. for Environmental Studies, Dept. of Atmospheric Sciences

    1992-01-24

    Although long considered to be of marginal importance to global climate change, tropospheric aerosol contributes substantially to radiative forcing, and anthropogenic sulfate aerosol in particular has imposed a major perturbation to this forcing. Both the direct scattering of short wavelength solar radiation and the modification of the shortwave reflective properties of clouds by sulfate aerosol particles increase planetary albedo, thereby exerting a cooling influence on the planet. Current climate forcing due to anthropogenic sulfate is estimated to be -1 to -2 watts per square metre, globally averaged. This perturbation is comparable in magnitude to current anthropogenic greenhouse gas forcing but opposite in sign. Thus, the aerosol forcing has likely offset global greenhouse warming to a substantial degree. However, differences in geographical and seasonal distributions of these forcings preclude any simple compensation. Aerosol effects must be taken into account in evaluating anthropogenic influences on past, current, and projected future climate and in formulating policy regarding controls on emission of greenhouse gases and sulfur dioxide. Resolution of such policy issues requires integrated research on the magnitude and geographical distribution of aerosol climate forcing and on the controlling chemical and physical processes. 73 refs., 4 figs., 2 tabs.

  6. Climate forcing by anthropogenic aerosols.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Charlson, R J; Schwartz, S E; Hales, J M; Cess, R D; Coakley, J A; Hansen, J E; Hofmann, D J

    1992-01-24

    Although long considered to be of marginal importance to global climate change, tropospheric aerosol contributes substantially to radiative forcing, and anthropogenic sulfate aerosol in particular has imposed a major perturbation to this forcing. Both the direct scattering of shortwavelength solar radiation and the modification of the shortwave reflective properties of clouds by sulfate aerosol particles increase planetary albedo, thereby exerting a cooling influence on the planet. Current climate forcing due to anthropogenic sulfate is estimated to be -1 to -2 watts per square meter, globally averaged. This perturbation is comparable in magnitude to current anthropogenic greenhouse gas forcing but opposite in sign. Thus, the aerosol forcing has likely offset global greenhouse warming to a substantial degree. However, differences in geographical and seasonal distributions of these forcings preclude any simple compensation. Aerosol effects must be taken into account in evaluating anthropogenic influences on past, current, and projected future climate and in formulating policy regarding controls on emission of greenhouse gases and sulfur dioxide. Resolution of such policy issues requires integrated research on the magnitude and geographical distribution of aerosol climate forcing and on the controlling chemical and physical processes.

  7. Climate hypersensitivity to solar forcing?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    W. Soon

    2000-05-01

    Full Text Available We compare the equilibrium climate responses of a quasi-dynamical energy balance model to radiative forcing by equivalent changes in CO2, solar total irradiance (Stot and solar UV (SUV. The response is largest in the SUV case, in which the imposed UV radiative forcing is preferentially absorbed in the layer above 250 mb, in contrast to the weak response from global-columnar radiative loading by increases in CO2 or Stot. The hypersensitive response of the climate system to solar UV forcing is caused by strongly coupled feedback involving vertical static stability, tropical thick cirrus ice clouds and stratospheric ozone. This mechanism offers a plausible explanation of the apparent hypersensitivity of climate to solar forcing, as suggested by analyses of recent climatic records. The model hypersensitivity strongly depends on climate parameters, especially cloud radiative properties, but is effective for arguably realistic values of these parameters. The proposed solar forcing mechanism should be further confirmed using other models (e.g., general circulation models that may better capture radiative and dynamical couplings of the troposphere and stratosphere.Key words: Meteorology and atmospheric dynamics (climatology · general or miscellaneous · Solar physics · astrophysics · and astronomy (ultraviolet emissions

  8. Nonlinear wave forces on large ocean structures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Erick T.

    1993-04-01

    This study explores the significance of second-order wave excitations on a large pontoon and tests the feasibility of reducing a nonlinear free surface problem by perturbation expansions. A simulation model has been developed based on the perturbation expansion technique to estimate the wave forces. The model uses a versatile finite element procedure for the solution of the reduced linear boundary value problems. This procedure achieves a fair compromise between computation costs and physical details by using a combination of 2D and 3D elements. A simple hydraulic model test was conducted to observe the wave forces imposed on a rectangle box by Cnoidal waves in shallow water. The test measurements are consistent with the numerical predictions by the simulation model. This result shows favorable support to the perturbation approach for estimating the nonlinear wave forces on shallow draft vessels. However, more sophisticated model tests are required for a full justification. Both theoretical and experimental results show profound second-order forces that could substantially impact the design of ocean facilities.

  9. The climatic out of control. the climatic forcing

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bony-Lena, S.; Dufresne, J.L.; Acot, P.; Friedlingstein, P.; Berger, A.; Loutre, M.L.; Raynaud, D.; Thuiller, W.; Le Treut, H.; Houssais, M.N.; Duplessy, J.C.; Royer, J.F.; Douville, H.; Barberousse, A.; Quinon, P.

    2007-01-01

    The expert group on the climate evolution affirms that the global warming is unequivocal and that the human being is the main responsible. This document broaches the climatic change under many aspects: the principle, the historical aspect of the greenhouse effect, the GIEC, the carbon cycle, the paleo-climate theory, the antarctic ices and the impacts of the climatic change on the biodiversity, the simulations and the models, the climatic indicators and the climatic forcing by human activities. (A.L.B.)

  10. Nonlinear Dynamics of Carbon Nanotubes Under Large Electrostatic Force

    KAUST Repository

    Xu, Tiantian; Younis, Mohammad I.

    2015-01-01

    Because of the inherent nonlinearities involving the behavior of CNTs when excited by electrostatic forces, modeling and simulating their behavior is challenging. The complicated form of the electrostatic force describing the interaction

  11. Collapse in a forced three-dimensional nonlinear Schrodinger equation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lushnikov, P.M.; Saffman, M.

    2000-01-01

    We derive sufficient conditions for the occurrence of collapse in a forced three-dimensional nonlinear Schrodinger equation without dissipation. Numerical studies continue the results to the case of finite dissipation.......We derive sufficient conditions for the occurrence of collapse in a forced three-dimensional nonlinear Schrodinger equation without dissipation. Numerical studies continue the results to the case of finite dissipation....

  12. Nonlinear Force-free Coronal Magnetic Stereoscopy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chifu, Iulia; Wiegelmann, Thomas; Inhester, Bernd, E-mail: chifu@mps.mpg.de [Max-Planck-Institut für Sonnensystemforschung, Justus-von-Liebig-Weg 3, D-37077 Göttingen (Germany)

    2017-03-01

    Insights into the 3D structure of the solar coronal magnetic field have been obtained in the past by two completely different approaches. The first approach are nonlinear force-free field (NLFFF) extrapolations, which use photospheric vector magnetograms as boundary condition. The second approach uses stereoscopy of coronal magnetic loops observed in EUV coronal images from different vantage points. Both approaches have their strengths and weaknesses. Extrapolation methods are sensitive to noise and inconsistencies in the boundary data, and the accuracy of stereoscopy is affected by the ability of identifying the same structure in different images and by the separation angle between the view directions. As a consequence, for the same observational data, the 3D coronal magnetic fields computed with the two methods do not necessarily coincide. In an earlier work (Paper I) we extended our NLFFF optimization code by including stereoscopic constrains. The method was successfully tested with synthetic data, and within this work, we apply the newly developed code to a combined data set from SDO /HMI, SDO /AIA, and the two STEREO spacecraft. The extended method (called S-NLFFF) contains an additional term that monitors and minimizes the angle between the local magnetic field direction and the orientation of the 3D coronal loops reconstructed by stereoscopy. We find that when we prescribe the shape of the 3D stereoscopically reconstructed loops, the S-NLFFF method leads to a much better agreement between the modeled field and the stereoscopically reconstructed loops. We also find an appreciable decrease by a factor of two in the angle between the current and the magnetic field. This indicates the improved quality of the force-free solution obtained by S-NLFFF.

  13. Forced oscillation of hyperbolic equations with mixed nonlinearities

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yutaka Shoukaku

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, we consider the mixed nonlinear hyperbolic equations with forcing term via Riccati inequality. Some sufficient conditions for the oscillation are derived by using Young inequality and integral averaging method.

  14. Nonlinear Dynamics of Carbon Nanotubes Under Large Electrostatic Force

    KAUST Repository

    Xu, Tiantian

    2015-06-01

    Because of the inherent nonlinearities involving the behavior of CNTs when excited by electrostatic forces, modeling and simulating their behavior is challenging. The complicated form of the electrostatic force describing the interaction of their cylindrical shape, forming upper electrodes, to lower electrodes poises serious computational challenges. This presents an obstacle against applying and using several nonlinear dynamics tools typically used to analyze the behavior of complicated nonlinear systems undergoing large motion, such as shooting, continuation, and integrity analysis techniques. This works presents an attempt to resolve this issue. We present an investigation of the nonlinear dynamics of carbon nanotubes when actuated by large electrostatic forces. We study expanding the complicated form of the electrostatic force into enough number of terms of the Taylor series. Then, we utilize this form along with an Euler-Bernoulli beam model to study for the first time the dynamic behavior of CNTs when excited by large electrostatic force. The geometric nonlinearity and the nonlinear electrostatic force are considered. An efficient reduced-order model (ROM) based on the Galerkin method is developed and utilized to simulate the static and dynamic responses of the CNTs. Several results are generated demonstrating softening and hardening behavior of the CNTs near their primary and secondary resonances. The effects of the DC and AC voltage loads on the behavior have been studied. The impacts of the initial slack level and CNT diameter are also demonstrated.

  15. NONLINEAR DYNAMICS OF CARBON NANOTUBES UNDER LARGE ELECTROSTATIC FORCE

    KAUST Repository

    Xu, Tiantian

    2015-06-01

    Because of the inherent nonlinearities involving the behavior of CNTs when excited by electrostatic forces, modeling and simulating their behavior is challenging. The complicated form of the electrostatic force describing the interaction of their cylindrical shape, forming upper electrodes, to lower electrodes poises serious computational challenges. This presents an obstacle against applying and using several nonlinear dynamics tools typically used to analyze the behavior of complicated nonlinear systems undergoing large motion, such as shooting, continuation, and integrity analysis techniques. This works presents an attempt to resolve this issue. We present an investigation of the nonlinear dynamics of carbon nanotubes when actuated by large electrostatic forces. We study expanding the complicated form of the electrostatic force into enough number of terms of the Taylor series. Then, we utilize this form along with an Euler-Bernoulli beam model to study for the first time the dynamic behavior of CNTs when excited by large electrostatic force. The geometric nonlinearity and the nonlinear electrostatic force are considered. An efficient reduced-order model (ROM) based on the Galerkin method is developed and utilized to simulate the static and dynamic responses of the CNTs. Several results are generated demonstrating softening and hardening behavior of the CNTs near their primary and secondary resonances. The effects of the DC and AC voltage loads on the behavior have been studied. The impacts of the initial slack level and CNT diameter are also demonstrated.

  16. Nonlinear structural analysis using integrated force method

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    A new formulation termed the Integrated Force Method (IFM) was proposed by Patnaik ... nated ``Structure (nY m)'' where (nY m) are the force and displacement degrees of ..... Patnaik S N, Yadagiri S 1976 Frequency analysis of structures.

  17. Irrigation as an Historical Climate Forcing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cook, Benjamin I.; Shukla, Sonali P.; Puma, Michael J.; Nazarenko, Larissa S.

    2014-01-01

    Irrigation is the single largest anthropogenic water use, a modification of the land surface that significantly affects surface energy budgets, the water cycle, and climate. Irrigation, however, is typically not included in standard historical general circulation model (GCM) simulations along with other anthropogenic and natural forcings. To investigate the importance of irrigation as an anthropogenic climate forcing, we conduct two 5-member ensemble GCM experiments. Both are setup identical to the historical forced (anthropogenic plus natural) scenario used in version 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, but in one experiment we also add water to the land surface using a dataset of historically estimated irrigation rates. Irrigation has a negligible effect on the global average radiative balance at the top of the atmosphere, but causes significant cooling of global average surface air temperatures over land and dampens regional warming trends. This cooling is regionally focused and is especially strong in Western North America, the Mediterranean, the Middle East, and Asia. Irrigation enhances cloud cover and precipitation in these same regions, except for summer in parts of Monsoon Asia, where irrigation causes a reduction in monsoon season precipitation. Irrigation cools the surface, reducing upward fluxes of longwave radiation (increasing net longwave), and increases cloud cover, enhancing shortwave reflection (reducing net shortwave). The relative magnitude of these two processes causes regional increases (northern India) or decreases (Central Asia, China) in energy availability at the surface and top of the atmosphere. Despite these changes in net radiation, however, climate responses are due primarily to larger magnitude shifts in the Bowen ratio from sensible to latent heating. Irrigation impacts on temperature, precipitation, and other climate variables are regionally significant, even while other anthropogenic forcings (anthropogenic aerosols

  18. How weather impacts the forced climate response

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kirtman, Ben P. [University of Miami, Division of Meteorology and Physical Oceanography, Rosenstiel School for Atmospheric and Marine Science, Miami, FL (United States); Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies, Calverton, MD (United States); Schneider, Edwin K.; Straus, David M. [George Mason University, Department of Atmospheric, Oceanic and Earth Sciences, Fairfax, VA (United States); Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies, Calverton, MD (United States); Min, Dughong; Burgman, Robert [University of Miami, Division of Meteorology and Physical Oceanography, Rosenstiel School for Atmospheric and Marine Science, Miami, FL (United States)

    2011-12-15

    The new interactive ensemble modeling strategy is used to diagnose how noise due to internal atmospheric dynamics impacts the forced climate response during the twentieth century (i.e., 1870-1999). The interactive ensemble uses multiple realizations of the atmospheric component model coupled to a single realization of the land, ocean and ice component models in order to reduce the noise due to internal atmospheric dynamics in the flux exchange at the interface of the component models. A control ensemble of so-called climate of the twentieth century simulations of the Community Climate Simulation Model version 3 (CCSM3) are compared with a similar simulation with the interactive ensemble version of CCSM3. Despite substantial differences in the overall mean climate, the global mean trends in surface temperature, 500 mb geopotential and precipitation are largely indistinguishable between the control ensemble and the interactive ensemble. Large differences in the forced response; however, are detected particularly in the surface temperature of the North Atlantic. Associated with the forced North Atlantic surface temperature differences are local differences in the forced precipitation and a substantial remote rainfall response in the deep tropical Pacific. We also introduce a simple variance analysis to separately compare the variance due to noise and the forced response. We find that the noise variance is decreased when external forcing is included. In terms of the forced variance, we find that the interactive ensemble increases this variance relative to the control. (orig.)

  19. Effect of Forcing Function on Nonlinear Acoustic Standing Waves

    Science.gov (United States)

    Finkheiner, Joshua R.; Li, Xiao-Fan; Raman, Ganesh; Daniels, Chris; Steinetz, Bruce

    2003-01-01

    Nonlinear acoustic standing waves of high amplitude have been demonstrated by utilizing the effects of resonator shape to prevent the pressure waves from entering saturation. Experimentally, nonlinear acoustic standing waves have been generated by shaking an entire resonating cavity. While this promotes more efficient energy transfer than a piston-driven resonator, it also introduces complicated structural dynamics into the system. Experiments have shown that these dynamics result in resonator forcing functions comprised of a sum of several Fourier modes. However, previous numerical studies of the acoustics generated within the resonator assumed simple sinusoidal waves as the driving force. Using a previously developed numerical code, this paper demonstrates the effects of using a forcing function constructed with a series of harmonic sinusoidal waves on resonating cavities. From these results, a method will be demonstrated which allows the direct numerical analysis of experimentally generated nonlinear acoustic waves in resonators driven by harmonic forcing functions.

  20. Nonlinear Analysis of Renal Autoregulation Under Broadband Forcing Conditions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Marmarelis, V Z; Chon, K H; Chen, Y M

    1994-01-01

    Linear analysis of renal blood flow fluctuations, induced experimentally in rats by broad-band (pseudorandom) arterial blood pressure forcing at various power levels, has been unable to explain fully the dynamics of renal autoregulation at low frequencies. This observation has suggested...... the possibility of nonlinear mechanisms subserving renal autoregulation at frequencies below 0.2 Hz. This paper presents results of 3rd-order Volterra-Wiener analysis that appear to explain adequately the nonlinearities in the pressure-flow relation below 0.2 Hz in rats. The contribution of the 3rd-order kernel...... in describing the dynamic pressure-flow relation is found to be important. Furthermore, the dependence of 1st-order kernel waveforms on the power level of broadband pressure forcing indicates the presence of nonlinear feedback (of sigmoid type) based on previously reported analysis of a class of nonlinear...

  1. The Precession Index and a Nonlinear Energy Balance Climate Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rubincam, David

    2004-01-01

    A simple nonlinear energy balance climate model yields a precession index-like term in the temperature. Despite its importance in the geologic record, the precession index e sin (Omega)S, where e is the Earth's orbital eccentricity and (Omega)S is the Sun's perigee in the geocentric frame, is not present in the insolation at the top of the atmosphere. Hence there is no one-for-one mapping of 23,000 and 19,000 year periodicities from the insolation to the paleoclimate record; a nonlinear climate model is needed to produce these long periods. A nonlinear energy balance climate model with radiative terms of form T n, where T is surface temperature and n less than 1, does produce e sin (omega)S terms in temperature; the e sin (omega)S terms are called Seversmith psychroterms. Without feedback mechanisms, the model achieves extreme values of 0.64 K at the maximum orbital eccentricity of 0.06, cooling one hemisphere while simultaneously warming the other; the hemisphere over which perihelion occurs is the cooler. In other words, the nonlinear energy balance model produces long-term cooling in the northern hemisphere when the Sun's perihelion is near northern summer solstice and long-term warming in the northern hemisphere when the aphelion is near northern summer solstice. (This behavior is similar to the inertialess gray body which radiates like T 4, but the amplitude is much lower for the energy balance model because of its thermal inertia.) This seemingly paradoxical behavior works against the standard Milankovitch model, which requires cool northern summers (Sun far from Earth in northern summer) to build up northern ice sheets, so that if the standard model is correct it must be more efficient than previously thought. Alternatively, the new mechanism could possibly be dominant and indicate southern hemisphere control of the northern ice sheets, wherein the southern oceans undergo a long-term cooling when the Sun is far from the Earth during northern summer. The cold

  2. Nonlinear aspects of acoustic radiation force in biomedical applications

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ostrovsky, Lev, E-mail: Lev.A.Ostrovsky@noaa.gov [NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory, 325 Broadway, Boulder, Colorado 80305 (United States); Tsyuryupa, Sergey; Sarvazyan, Armen, E-mail: armen@artannlabs.com [Artann Laboratories, Inc., 1459 Lower Ferry Rd., West Trenton, New Jersey,08618 (United States)

    2015-10-28

    In the past decade acoustic radiation force (ARF) became a powerful tool in numerous biomedical applications. ARF from a focused ultrasound beam acts as a virtual “finger” for remote probing of internal anatomical structures and obtaining diagnostic information. This presentation deals with generation of shear waves by nonlinear focused beams. Albeit the ARF has intrinsically nonlinear origin, in most cases the primary ultrasonic wave was considered in the linear approximation. In this presentation, we consider the effects of nonlinearly distorted beams on generation of shear waves by such beams.

  3. Nonlinear aspects of acoustic radiation force in biomedical applications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ostrovsky, Lev; Tsyuryupa, Sergey; Sarvazyan, Armen

    2015-01-01

    In the past decade acoustic radiation force (ARF) became a powerful tool in numerous biomedical applications. ARF from a focused ultrasound beam acts as a virtual “finger” for remote probing of internal anatomical structures and obtaining diagnostic information. This presentation deals with generation of shear waves by nonlinear focused beams. Albeit the ARF has intrinsically nonlinear origin, in most cases the primary ultrasonic wave was considered in the linear approximation. In this presentation, we consider the effects of nonlinearly distorted beams on generation of shear waves by such beams

  4. Nonlinear aspects of acoustic radiation force in biomedical applications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ostrovsky, Lev; Tsyuryupa, Sergey; Sarvazyan, Armen

    2015-10-01

    In the past decade acoustic radiation force (ARF) became a powerful tool in numerous biomedical applications. ARF from a focused ultrasound beam acts as a virtual "finger" for remote probing of internal anatomical structures and obtaining diagnostic information. This presentation deals with generation of shear waves by nonlinear focused beams. Albeit the ARF has intrinsically nonlinear origin, in most cases the primary ultrasonic wave was considered in the linear approximation. In this presentation, we consider the effects of nonlinearly distorted beams on generation of shear waves by such beams.

  5. Attribution of climate forcing to economic sectors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Unger, Nadine; Bond, Tami C; Wang, James S; Koch, Dorothy M; Menon, Surabi; Shindell, Drew T; Bauer, Susanne

    2010-02-23

    A much-cited bar chart provided by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change displays the climate impact, as expressed by radiative forcing in watts per meter squared, of individual chemical species. The organization of the chart reflects the history of atmospheric chemistry, in which investigators typically focused on a single species of interest. However, changes in pollutant emissions and concentrations are a symptom, not a cause, of the primary driver of anthropogenic climate change: human activity. In this paper, we suggest organizing the bar chart according to drivers of change-that is, by economic sector. Climate impacts of tropospheric ozone, fine aerosols, aerosol-cloud interactions, methane, and long-lived greenhouse gases are considered. We quantify the future evolution of the total radiative forcing due to perpetual constant year 2000 emissions by sector, most relevant for the development of climate policy now, and focus on two specific time points, near-term at 2020 and long-term at 2100. Because sector profiles differ greatly, this approach fosters the development of smart climate policy and is useful to identify effective opportunities for rapid mitigation of anthropogenic radiative forcing.

  6. Oscillation criteria for first-order forced nonlinear difference equations

    OpenAIRE

    Grace Said R; Agarwal Ravi P; Smith Tim

    2006-01-01

    Some new criteria for the oscillation of first-order forced nonlinear difference equations of the form Δx(n)+q1(n)xμ(n+1) = q2(n)xλ(n+1)+e(n), where λ, μ are the ratios of positive odd integers 0 <μ < 1 and λ > 1, are established.

  7. Realising traceable electrostatic forces despite non-linear balance motion

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stirling, Julian; Shaw, Gordon A

    2017-01-01

    Direct realisation of force, traceable to fundamental constants via electromagnetic balances, is a key goal of the proposed redefinition of the international system of units (SI). This will allow small force metrology to be performed using an electrostatic force balance (EFB) rather than subdivision of larger forces. Such a balance uses the electrostatic force across a capacitor to balance an external force. In this paper we model the capacitance of a concentric cylinder EFB design as a function of the displacement of its free electrode, accounting for the arcuate motion produced by parallelogram linkages commonly used in EFB mechanisms. From this model we suggest new fitting procedures to reduce uncertainties arising from non-linear motion as well as methods to identify misalignment of the mechanism. Experimental studies on both a test capacitor and the NIST EFB validate the model. (paper)

  8. Nonlinear dynamical modes of climate variability: from curves to manifolds

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gavrilov, Andrey; Mukhin, Dmitry; Loskutov, Evgeny; Feigin, Alexander

    2016-04-01

    The necessity of efficient dimensionality reduction methods capturing dynamical properties of the system from observed data is evident. Recent study shows that nonlinear dynamical mode (NDM) expansion is able to solve this problem and provide adequate phase variables in climate data analysis [1]. A single NDM is logical extension of linear spatio-temporal structure (like empirical orthogonal function pattern): it is constructed as nonlinear transformation of hidden scalar time series to the space of observed variables, i. e. projection of observed dataset onto a nonlinear curve. Both the hidden time series and the parameters of the curve are learned simultaneously using Bayesian approach. The only prior information about the hidden signal is the assumption of its smoothness. The optimal nonlinearity degree and smoothness are found using Bayesian evidence technique. In this work we do further extension and look for vector hidden signals instead of scalar with the same smoothness restriction. As a result we resolve multidimensional manifolds instead of sum of curves. The dimension of the hidden manifold is optimized using also Bayesian evidence. The efficiency of the extension is demonstrated on model examples. Results of application to climate data are demonstrated and discussed. The study is supported by Government of Russian Federation (agreement #14.Z50.31.0033 with the Institute of Applied Physics of RAS). 1. Mukhin, D., Gavrilov, A., Feigin, A., Loskutov, E., & Kurths, J. (2015). Principal nonlinear dynamical modes of climate variability. Scientific Reports, 5, 15510. http://doi.org/10.1038/srep15510

  9. Sequential reconstruction of driving-forces from nonlinear nonstationary dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Güntürkün, Ulaş

    2010-07-01

    This paper describes a functional analysis-based method for the estimation of driving-forces from nonlinear dynamic systems. The driving-forces account for the perturbation inputs induced by the external environment or the secular variations in the internal variables of the system. The proposed algorithm is applicable to the problems for which there is too little or no prior knowledge to build a rigorous mathematical model of the unknown dynamics. We derive the estimator conditioned on the differentiability of the unknown system’s mapping, and smoothness of the driving-force. The proposed algorithm is an adaptive sequential realization of the blind prediction error method, where the basic idea is to predict the observables, and retrieve the driving-force from the prediction error. Our realization of this idea is embodied by predicting the observables one-step into the future using a bank of echo state networks (ESN) in an online fashion, and then extracting the raw estimates from the prediction error and smoothing these estimates in two adaptive filtering stages. The adaptive nature of the algorithm enables to retrieve both slowly and rapidly varying driving-forces accurately, which are illustrated by simulations. Logistic and Moran-Ricker maps are studied in controlled experiments, exemplifying chaotic state and stochastic measurement models. The algorithm is also applied to the estimation of a driving-force from another nonlinear dynamic system that is stochastic in both state and measurement equations. The results are judged by the posterior Cramer-Rao lower bounds. The method is finally put into test on a real-world application; extracting sun’s magnetic flux from the sunspot time series.

  10. Impact of nonlinear distortion on acoustic radiation force elastography.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Draudt, Andrew B; Cleveland, Robin O

    2011-11-01

    High-intensity focused ultrasound (HIFU) produces an acoustic radiation force that induces tissue displacement, which can be measured by monitoring time shifts in the backscattered signals from interrogation pulses. If the pulse occurs simultaneously with the HIFU, the arrival time of the backscatter will be biased because nonlinearity associated with the HIFU changes the local sound speed. Measurements of the pressure field using 1.1 MHz HIFU and a 7.5 MHz pulse in water exhibited a nonlinearly induced apparent displacement (NIAD) that varied with the HIFU pressure, propagation distance and the timing of the pulse relative to the HIFU. Nonlinear simulations employing the KZK equation predicted NIADs that agreed with measurements. Experiments with chicken breast demonstrated a NIAD with magnitude similar to that expected from the radiation force. Finally it was shown that if two pulses were fired with different phases relative to the HIFU, then upon averaging, the NIAD could be mitigated. Copyright © 2011 World Federation for Ultrasound in Medicine & Biology. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  11. On the climate impacts from the volcanic and solar forcings

    Science.gov (United States)

    Varotsos, Costas A.; Lovejoy, Shaun

    2016-04-01

    The observed and the modelled estimations show that the main forcings on the atmosphere are of volcanic and solar origins, which act however in an opposite way. The former can be very strong and decrease at short time scales, whereas, the latter increase with time scale. On the contrary, the observed fluctuations in temperatures increase at long scales (e.g. centennial and millennial), and the solar forcings do increase with scale. The common practice is to reduce forcings to radiative equivalents assuming that their combination is linear. In order to clarify the validity of the linearity assumption and determine its range of validity, we systematically compare the statistical properties of solar only, volcanic only and combined solar and volcanic forcings over the range of time scales from one to 1000 years. Additionally, we attempt to investigate plausible reasons for the discrepancies observed between the measured and modeled anomalies of tropospheric temperatures in the tropics. For this purpose, we analyse tropospheric temperature anomalies for both the measured and modeled time series. The results obtained show that the measured temperature fluctuations reveal white noise behavior, while the modeled ones exhibit long-range power law correlations. We suggest that the persistent signal, should be removed from the modeled values in order to achieve better agreement with observations. Keywords: Scaling, Nonlinear variability, Climate system, Solar radiation

  12. Testing For The Linearity of Responses To Multiple Anthropogenic Climate Forcings

    Science.gov (United States)

    Forest, C. E.; Stone, P. H.; Sokolov, A. P.

    To test whether climate forcings are additive, we compare climate model simulations in which anthropogenic forcings are applied individually and in combination. Tests are performed with different values for climate system properties (climate sensitivity and rate of heat uptake by the deep ocean) as well as for different strengths of the net aerosol forcing, thereby testing for the dependence of linearity on these properties. The MIT 2D Land-Ocean Climate Model used in this study consists of a zonally aver- aged statistical-dynamical atmospheric model coupled to a mixed-layer Q-flux ocean model, with heat anomalies diffused into the deep ocean. Following our previous stud- ies, the anthropogenic forcings are the changes in concentrations of greenhouse gases (1860-1995), sulfate aerosol (1860-1995), and stratospheric and tropospheric ozone (1979-1995). The sulfate aerosol forcing is applied as a surface albedo change. For an aerosol forcing of -1.0 W/m2 and an effective ocean diffusitivity of 2.5 cm2/s, the nonlinearity of the response of global-mean surface temperatures to the combined forcing shows a strong dependence on climate sensitivity. The fractional change in decadal averages ([(TG + TS + TO) - TGSO]/TGSO) for the 1986-1995 period compared to pre-industrial times are 0.43, 0.90, and 1.08 with climate sensitiv- ities of 3.0, 4.5, and 6.2 C, respectively. The values of TGSO for these three cases o are 0.52, 0.62, and 0.76 C. The dependence of linearity on climate system properties, o the role of climate system feedbacks, and the implications for the detection of climate system's response to individual forcings will be presented. Details of the model and forcings can be found at http://web.mit.edu/globalchange/www/.

  13. Extracting Leading Nonlinear Modes of Changing Climate From Global SST Time Series

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mukhin, D.; Gavrilov, A.; Loskutov, E. M.; Feigin, A. M.; Kurths, J.

    2017-12-01

    Data-driven modeling of climate requires adequate principal variables extracted from observed high-dimensional data. For constructing such variables it is needed to find spatial-temporal patterns explaining a substantial part of the variability and comprising all dynamically related time series from the data. The difficulties of this task rise from the nonlinearity and non-stationarity of the climate dynamical system. The nonlinearity leads to insufficiency of linear methods of data decomposition for separating different processes entangled in the observed time series. On the other hand, various forcings, both anthropogenic and natural, make the dynamics non-stationary, and we should be able to describe the response of the system to such forcings in order to separate the modes explaining the internal variability. The method we present is aimed to overcome both these problems. The method is based on the Nonlinear Dynamical Mode (NDM) decomposition [1,2], but takes into account external forcing signals. An each mode depends on hidden, unknown a priori, time series which, together with external forcing time series, are mapped onto data space. Finding both the hidden signals and the mapping allows us to study the evolution of the modes' structure in changing external conditions and to compare the roles of the internal variability and forcing in the observed behavior. The method is used for extracting of the principal modes of SST variability on inter-annual and multidecadal time scales accounting the external forcings such as CO2, variations of the solar activity and volcanic activity. The structure of the revealed teleconnection patterns as well as their forecast under different CO2 emission scenarios are discussed.[1] Mukhin, D., Gavrilov, A., Feigin, A., Loskutov, E., & Kurths, J. (2015). Principal nonlinear dynamical modes of climate variability. Scientific Reports, 5, 15510. [2] Gavrilov, A., Mukhin, D., Loskutov, E., Volodin, E., Feigin, A., & Kurths, J. (2016

  14. Topological and statistical properties of nonlinear force-free fields

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mangalam, A.; Prasad, A.

    2018-01-01

    We use our semi-analytic solution of the nonlinear force-free field equation to construct three-dimensional magnetic fields that are applicable to the solar corona and study their statistical properties for estimating the degree of braiding exhibited by these fields. We present a new formula for calculating the winding number and compare it with the formula for the crossing number. The comparison is shown for a toy model of two helices and for realistic cases of nonlinear force-free fields; conceptually the formulae are nearly the same but the resulting distributions calculated for a given topology can be different. We also calculate linkages, which are useful topological quantities that are independent measures of the contribution of magnetic braiding to the total free energy and relative helicity of the field. Finally, we derive new analytical bounds for the free energy and relative helicity for the field configurations in terms of the linking number. These bounds will be of utility in estimating the braided energy available for nano-flares or for eruptions.

  15. Actuation of atomic force microscopy microcantilevers using contact acoustic nonlinearities

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Torello, D.; Degertekin, F. Levent, E-mail: levent.degertekin@me.gatech.edu [George W. Woodruff School of Mechanical Engineering, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, Georgia 30332 (United States)

    2013-11-15

    A new method of actuating atomic force microscopy (AFM) cantilevers is proposed in which a high frequency (>5 MHz) wave modulated by a lower frequency (∼300 kHz) wave passes through a contact acoustic nonlinearity at the contact interface between the actuator and the cantilever chip. The nonlinearity converts the high frequency, modulated signal to a low frequency drive signal suitable for actuation of tapping-mode AFM probes. The higher harmonic content of this signal is filtered out mechanically by the cantilever transfer function, providing for clean output. A custom probe holder was designed and constructed using rapid prototyping technologies and off-the-shelf components and was interfaced with an Asylum Research MFP-3D AFM, which was then used to evaluate the performance characteristics with respect to standard hardware and linear actuation techniques. Using a carrier frequency of 14.19 MHz, it was observed that the cantilever output was cleaner with this actuation technique and added no significant noise to the system. This setup, without any optimization, was determined to have an actuation bandwidth on the order of 10 MHz, suitable for high speed imaging applications. Using this method, an image was taken that demonstrates the viability of the technique and is compared favorably to images taken with a standard AFM setup.

  16. Nonlinear Modeling of Forced Magnetic Reconnection with Transient Perturbations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beidler, Matthew T.; Callen, James D.; Hegna, Chris C.; Sovinec, Carl R.

    2017-10-01

    Externally applied 3D magnetic fields in tokamaks can penetrate into the plasma and lead to forced magnetic reconnection, and hence magnetic islands, on resonant surfaces. Analytic theory has been reasonably successful in describing many aspects of this paradigm with regard to describing the time asymptotic-steady state. However, understanding the nonlinear evolution into a low-slip, field-penetrated state, especially how MHD events such as sawteeth and ELMs precipitate this transition, is in its early development. We present nonlinear computations employing the extended-MHD code NIMROD, building on previous work by incorporating a temporally varying external perturbation as a simple model for an MHD event that produces resonant magnetic signals. A parametric series of proof-of-principle computations and accompanying analytical theory characterize the transition into a mode-locked state with an emphasis on detailing the temporal evolution properties. Supported by DOE OFES Grants DE-FG02-92ER54139, DE-FG02-86ER53218, and the U.S. DOE FES Postdoctoral Research program administered by ORISE and managed by ORAU under DOE contract DE-SC0014664.

  17. Nonlinear ecosystem services response to groundwater availability under climate extremes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Qiu, J.; Zipper, S. C.; Motew, M.; Booth, E.; Kucharik, C. J.; Steven, L. I.

    2017-12-01

    Depletion of groundwater has been accelerating at regional to global scales. Besides serving domestic, industrial and agricultural needs, in situ groundwater is also a key control on biological, physical and chemical processes across the critical zone, all of which underpin supply of ecosystem services essential for humanity. While there is a rich history of research on groundwater effects on subsurface and surface processes, understanding interactions, nonlinearity and feedbacks between groundwater and ecosystem services remain limited, and almost absent in the ecosystem service literature. Moreover, how climate extremes may alter groundwater effects on services is underexplored. In this research, we used a process-based ecosystem model (Agro-IBIS) to quantify groundwater effects on eight ecosystem services related to food, water and biogeochemical processes in an urbanizing agricultural watershed in the Midwest, USA. We asked: (1) Which ecosystem services are more susceptible to shallow groundwater influences? (2) Do effects of groundwater on ecosystem services vary under contrasting climate conditions (i.e., dry, wet and average)? (3) Where on the landscape are groundwater effects on ecosystem services most pronounced? (4) How do groundwater effects depend on water table depth? Overall, groundwater significantly impacted all services studied, with the largest effects on food production, water quality and quantity, and flood regulation services. Climate also mediated groundwater effects with the strongest effects occurring under dry climatic conditions. There was substantial spatial heterogeneity in groundwater effects across the landscape that is driven in part by spatial variations in water table depth. Most ecosystem services responded nonlinearly to groundwater availability, with most apparent groundwater effects occurring when the water table is shallower than a critical depth of 2.5-m. Our findings provide compelling evidence that groundwater plays a vital

  18. Nonlinear gravitational self-force: Field outside a small body

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pound, Adam

    2012-10-01

    A small extended body moving through an external spacetime gαβ creates a metric perturbation hαβ, which forces the body away from geodesic motion in gαβ. The foundations of this effect, called the gravitational self-force, are now well established, but concrete results have mostly been limited to linear order. Accurately modeling the dynamics of compact binaries requires proceeding to nonlinear orders. To that end, I show how to obtain the metric perturbation outside the body at all orders in a class of generalized wave gauges. In a small buffer region surrounding the body, the form of the perturbation can be found analytically as an expansion for small distances r from a representative worldline. Given only a specification of the body’s multipole moments, the field obtained in the buffer region suffices to find the metric everywhere outside the body via a numerical puncture scheme. Following this procedure at first and second order, I calculate the field in the buffer region around an arbitrarily structured compact body at sufficiently high order in r to numerically implement a second-order puncture scheme, including effects of the body’s spin. I also define nth-order (local) generalizations of the Detweiler-Whiting singular and regular fields and show that in a certain sense, the body can be viewed as a skeleton of multipole moments.

  19. The climatic out of control. the climatic forcing; L'emballement climatique. Le forcage climatique

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bony-Lena, S.; Dufresne, J.L. [Laboratoire de Meteorologie Dynamique, LMD/IPSL, CNRS-UPMC, 75 - Paris (France); Acot, P. [Institut d' histoire et de philosophie des sciences et des techniques (IHPST), CNRS-Univ. Paris-1-ENS, 75 - Paris (France); Friedlingstein, P. [CEA Saclay, Lab. des Sciences du Climat et l' Environnement (LSCE), 91 - Gif-sur-Yvette (France); Berger, A.; Loutre, M.L. [Universite Catholique de Louvain (UCL), Louvain-la-Neuve (Belgium). Inst. d' Astronomie et de Geophysique G. Lemaitre; Jouzel, J. [Institut Pierre Simon Laplace, 75 - Paris (France); Raynaud, D. [Laboratoire de Glaciologie et Geophysique de l' Environnement (UMR 5183), 38 - Saint Martin d' Heres cedex (France); Thuiller, W. [Universite Joseph-Fourier, Lab. d' Ecologie Alpine, CNRS-Univ. Grenoble-1, 38 (France); Le Treut, H. [Laboratoire de Meteorologie dynamique du CNRS, 75 - Paris (France); Houssais, M.N. [Laboratoire d' Oceanographie et du Climat Experimentation et Approches Numerique (LOCEAN / IPSL), 75 - Paris (France); Duplessy, J.C. [Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l' Environnement (LSCE), 91 - Gif sur Yvette (France); Royer, J.F.; Douville, H. [Centre National de Recherches Meteorologiques, 31 - Toulouse (France); Barberousse, A. [Institut d' Histoire et de Philosophie des Sciences et des Techniques, CNRS, ENS, 75 - Paris (France); Quinon, P

    2007-03-15

    The expert group on the climate evolution affirms that the global warming is unequivocal and that the human being is the main responsible. This document broaches the climatic change under many aspects: the principle, the historical aspect of the greenhouse effect, the GIEC, the carbon cycle, the paleo-climate theory, the antarctic ices and the impacts of the climatic change on the biodiversity, the simulations and the models, the climatic indicators and the climatic forcing by human activities. (A.L.B.)

  20. Influence of forced respiration on nonlinear dynamics in heart rate variability

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kanters, J K; Højgaard, M V; Agner, E

    1997-01-01

    Although it is doubtful whether the normal sinus rhythm can be described as low-dimensional chaos, there is evidence for inherent nonlinear dynamics and determinism in time series of consecutive R-R intervals. However, the physiological origin for these nonlinearities is unknown. The aim...... with a metronome set to 12 min(-1). Nonlinear dynamics were measured as the correlation dimension and the nonlinear prediction error. Complexity expressed as correlation dimension was unchanged from normal respiration, 9.1 +/- 0.5, compared with forced respiration, 9.3 +/- 0.6. Also, nonlinear determinism...... expressed as the nonlinear prediction error did not differ between spontaneous respiration, 32.3 +/- 3.4 ms, and forced respiration, 31.9 +/- 5.7. It is concluded that the origin of the nonlinear dynamics in heart rate variability is not a nonlinear input from the respiration into the cardiovascular...

  1. Do responses to different anthropogenic forcings add linearly in climate models?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Marvel, Kate; Schmidt, Gavin A; LeGrande, Allegra N; Nazarenko, Larissa; Shindell, Drew; Bonfils, Céline; Tsigaridis, Kostas

    2015-01-01

    Many detection and attribution and pattern scaling studies assume that the global climate response to multiple forcings is additive: that the response over the historical period is statistically indistinguishable from the sum of the responses to individual forcings. Here, we use the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) and National Center for Atmospheric Research Community Climate System Model (CCSM4) simulations from the CMIP5 archive to test this assumption for multi-year trends in global-average, annual-average temperature and precipitation at multiple timescales. We find that responses in models forced by pre-computed aerosol and ozone concentrations are generally additive across forcings. However, we demonstrate that there are significant nonlinearities in precipitation responses to different forcings in a configuration of the GISS model that interactively computes these concentrations from precursor emissions. We attribute these to differences in ozone forcing arising from interactions between forcing agents. Our results suggest that attribution to specific forcings may be complicated in a model with fully interactive chemistry and may provide motivation for other modeling groups to conduct further single-forcing experiments. (letter)

  2. Input Forces Estimation for Nonlinear Systems by Applying a Square-Root Cubature Kalman Filter.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Song, Xuegang; Zhang, Yuexin; Liang, Dakai

    2017-10-10

    This work presents a novel inverse algorithm to estimate time-varying input forces in nonlinear beam systems. With the system parameters determined, the input forces can be estimated in real-time from dynamic responses, which can be used for structural health monitoring. In the process of input forces estimation, the Runge-Kutta fourth-order algorithm was employed to discretize the state equations; a square-root cubature Kalman filter (SRCKF) was employed to suppress white noise; the residual innovation sequences, a priori state estimate, gain matrix, and innovation covariance generated by SRCKF were employed to estimate the magnitude and location of input forces by using a nonlinear estimator. The nonlinear estimator was based on the least squares method. Numerical simulations of a large deflection beam and an experiment of a linear beam constrained by a nonlinear spring were employed. The results demonstrated accuracy of the nonlinear algorithm.

  3. Input Forces Estimation for Nonlinear Systems by Applying a Square-Root Cubature Kalman Filter

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xuegang Song

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available This work presents a novel inverse algorithm to estimate time-varying input forces in nonlinear beam systems. With the system parameters determined, the input forces can be estimated in real-time from dynamic responses, which can be used for structural health monitoring. In the process of input forces estimation, the Runge-Kutta fourth-order algorithm was employed to discretize the state equations; a square-root cubature Kalman filter (SRCKF was employed to suppress white noise; the residual innovation sequences, a priori state estimate, gain matrix, and innovation covariance generated by SRCKF were employed to estimate the magnitude and location of input forces by using a nonlinear estimator. The nonlinear estimator was based on the least squares method. Numerical simulations of a large deflection beam and an experiment of a linear beam constrained by a nonlinear spring were employed. The results demonstrated accuracy of the nonlinear algorithm.

  4. Climate forcings and climate sensitivities diagnosed from atmospheric global circulation models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Anderson, Bruce T. [Boston University, Department of Geography and Environment, Boston, MA (United States); Knight, Jeff R.; Ringer, Mark A. [Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter (United Kingdom); Deser, Clara; Phillips, Adam S. [National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO (United States); Yoon, Jin-Ho [University of Maryland, Cooperative Institute for Climate and Satellites, Earth System Science Interdisciplinary Center, College Park, MD (United States); Cherchi, Annalisa [Centro Euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici, and Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Bologna (Italy)

    2010-12-15

    Understanding the historical and future response of the global climate system to anthropogenic emissions of radiatively active atmospheric constituents has become a timely and compelling concern. At present, however, there are uncertainties in: the total radiative forcing associated with changes in the chemical composition of the atmosphere; the effective forcing applied to the climate system resulting from a (temporary) reduction via ocean-heat uptake; and the strength of the climate feedbacks that subsequently modify this forcing. Here a set of analyses derived from atmospheric general circulation model simulations are used to estimate the effective and total radiative forcing of the observed climate system due to anthropogenic emissions over the last 50 years of the twentieth century. They are also used to estimate the sensitivity of the observed climate system to these emissions, as well as the expected change in global surface temperatures once the climate system returns to radiative equilibrium. Results indicate that estimates of the effective radiative forcing and total radiative forcing associated with historical anthropogenic emissions differ across models. In addition estimates of the historical sensitivity of the climate to these emissions differ across models. However, results suggest that the variations in climate sensitivity and total climate forcing are not independent, and that the two vary inversely with respect to one another. As such, expected equilibrium temperature changes, which are given by the product of the total radiative forcing and the climate sensitivity, are relatively constant between models, particularly in comparison to results in which the total radiative forcing is assumed constant. Implications of these results for projected future climate forcings and subsequent responses are also discussed. (orig.)

  5. Recent advances in understanding secondary organic aerosol: Implications for global climate forcing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shrivastava, Manish; Cappa, Christopher D.; Fan, Jiwen; Goldstein, Allen H.; Guenther, Alex B.; Jimenez, Jose L.; Kuang, Chongai; Laskin, Alexander; Martin, Scot T.; Ng, Nga Lee; Petaja, Tuukka; Pierce, Jeffrey R.; Rasch, Philip J.; Roldin, Pontus; Seinfeld, John H.; Shilling, John; Smith, James N.; Thornton, Joel A.; Volkamer, Rainer; Wang, Jian; Worsnop, Douglas R.; Zaveri, Rahul A.; Zelenyuk, Alla; Zhang, Qi

    2017-06-01

    Anthropogenic emissions and land use changes have modified atmospheric aerosol concentrations and size distributions over time. Understanding preindustrial conditions and changes in organic aerosol due to anthropogenic activities is important because these features (1) influence estimates of aerosol radiative forcing and (2) can confound estimates of the historical response of climate to increases in greenhouse gases. Secondary organic aerosol (SOA), formed in the atmosphere by oxidation of organic gases, represents a major fraction of global submicron-sized atmospheric organic aerosol. Over the past decade, significant advances in understanding SOA properties and formation mechanisms have occurred through measurements, yet current climate models typically do not comprehensively include all important processes. This review summarizes some of the important developments during the past decade in understanding SOA formation. We highlight the importance of some processes that influence the growth of SOA particles to sizes relevant for clouds and radiative forcing, including formation of extremely low volatility organics in the gas phase, acid-catalyzed multiphase chemistry of isoprene epoxydiols, particle-phase oligomerization, and physical properties such as volatility and viscosity. Several SOA processes highlighted in this review are complex and interdependent and have nonlinear effects on the properties, formation, and evolution of SOA. Current global models neglect this complexity and nonlinearity and thus are less likely to accurately predict the climate forcing of SOA and project future climate sensitivity to greenhouse gases. Efforts are also needed to rank the most influential processes and nonlinear process-related interactions, so that these processes can be accurately represented in atmospheric chemistry-climate models.

  6. Untangling Topographic and Climatic Forcing of Earthflow Motion

    Science.gov (United States)

    Finnegan, N. J.; Nereson, A. L.

    2017-12-01

    Earthflows commonly form in steep river canyons and are argued to initiate from rapid incision that destabilizes hill slope toes. At the same time, earthflows are known to exhibit a temporal pattern of movement that is correlated with seasonal precipitation and associated changes in effective stress. In this contribution, we use infinite slope analysis to illuminate the relative roles of topographic slope and climate (via its control on pore fluid pressure) in influencing earthflow motion at Oak Ridge earthflow, near San Jose, CA. To this end, we synthesize two years of shallow (2.7 m depth) pore fluid pressure data and continuous GPS-derived velocities with an 80-year record of historical deformation derived from tracking of trees and rocks on orthophotos along much of the 1.4 km length and 400 m relief of the earthflow. Multiple lines of evidence suggest that motion of Oak Ridge earthflow occurs as frictional sliding along a discrete failure surface, as argued for other earthflows. Spatial patterns of sliding velocity along the earthflow show the same sensitivity to topographic slope for five discrete periods of historical sliding, accelerating by roughly an order of magnitude along a 20 degree increase in earthflow gradient. In contrast, during the 2016-2017 winter, velocity increased much more rapidly for an equivalent increase in driving stress due to pore-fluid pressure rise at our GPS antenna. During this time period, Oak Ridge earthflow moved approximately 30 cm and we observed a relatively simple, non-linear relationship between GPS-derived sliding velocity and shallow pore fluid pressure. Rapid sliding in 2016-2017 (> 0.6 cm/day) occurred exclusively during the week following a large winter storm event that raised pore pressures to seasonal highs within only 1-2 days of the storm peak. These observations suggests that a mechanism, such as dilatant strengthening, acts to stabilize velocities for a given value of pore fluid pressure in the landslide mass

  7. Nonlinear nonresonant forces by radio-frequency waves in plasmas

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gao Zhe; Fisch, Nathaniel J.; Qin, Hong; Myra, J. R.

    2007-01-01

    Nonresonant forces by applied rf waves in plasmas are analyzed. Along the background dc magnetic field, the force arises from the gradient of the ponderomotive potential. Only when the dc magnetic field is straight, however, is this parallel force completely consistent with that from the single particle picture, where the ponderomotive force depends on the gradients of rf fields only. Across the dc magnetic field, besides the ponderomotive force from the particle picture, additional Reynolds stress and polarization stress contribute to the total force. For waves with frequency much lower than the cyclotron frequency, the perpendicular forces from the particle and fluid pictures can have opposite signs. In plasmas with a symmetry angle (e.g., toroidal systems), nonresonant forces cannot drive net flow or current in the flux surface, but the radial force may influence macroscopic behavior of plasma. Moreover, nonresonant forces may drive flow or current in linear plasmas or in a localized region of toroidal plasmas

  8. Nonlinear effects in the radiation force generated by amplitude-modulated focused beams

    Science.gov (United States)

    González, Nuria; Jiménez, Noé; Redondo, Javier; Roig, Bernardino; Picó, Rubén; Sánchez-Morcillo, Víctor; Konofagou, Elisa E.; Camarena, Francisco

    2012-10-01

    Harmonic Motion Imaging (HMI) uses an amplitude-modulated (AM) beam to induce an oscillatory radiation force before, during and after ablation. In this paper, the findings from a numerical analysis of the effects related with the nonlinear propagation of AM focused ultrasonic beams in water on the radiation force and the location of its maxima will be presented. The numerical modeling is performed using the KZK nonlinear parabolic equation. The radiation force is generated by a focused transducer with a gain of 18, a carrier frequency of 1 MHz and a modulation frequency of 25 kHz. The modulated excitation generates a spatially-invariant force proportional to the intensity. Regarding the nonlinear wave propagation, the force is no longer proportional to the intensity, reaching a factor of eight between the nonlinear and linear estimations. Also, a 9 mm shift in the on-axis force peak occurs when the initial pressure increased from 1 to 300 kPa. This spatial shift, due to the nonlinear effects, becomes dynamic in AM focused beams, as the different signal periods have different amplitudes. This study shows that both the value and the spatial position of the force peak are affected by the nonlinear propagation of the ultrasonic waves.

  9. Theory of nonlinear acoustic forces acting on fluids and particles in microsystems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Karlsen, Jonas Tobias

    fundamentally new capabilities in chemical, biomedical, or clinical studies of single cells and bioparticles. This thesis, entitled Theory of nonlinear acoustic forces acting on fluids and particles in microsystems, advances the fundamental understanding of acoustofluidics by addressing the origin...... of the nonlinear acoustic forces acting on fluids and particles. Classical results in nonlinear acoustics for the non-dissipative acoustic radiation force acting on a particle or an interface, as well as the dissipative acoustic force densities driving acoustic streaming, are derived and discussed in terms...... in the continuous fluid parameters of density and compressibility, e.g., due to a solute concentration field, the thesis presents novel analytical results on the acoustic force density acting on inhomogeneous fluids in acoustic fields. This inhomogeneity-induced acoustic force density is non-dissipative in origin...

  10. Rate of non-linearity in DMS aerosol-cloud-climate interactions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. A. Thomas

    2011-11-01

    Full Text Available The degree of non-linearity in DMS-cloud-climate interactions is assessed using the ECHAM5-HAMMOZ model by taking into account end-to-end aerosol chemistry-cloud microphysics link. The evaluation is made over the Southern oceans in austral summer, a region of minimal anthropogenic influence. In this study, we compare the DMS-derived changes in the aerosol and cloud microphysical properties between a baseline simulation with the ocean DMS emissions from a prescribed climatology, and a scenario where the DMS emissions are doubled. Our results show that doubling the DMS emissions in the current climate results in a non-linear response in atmospheric DMS burden and subsequently, in SO2 and H2SO4 burdens due to inadequate OH oxidation. The aerosol optical depth increases by only ~20 % in the 30° S–75° S belt in the SH summer months. This increases the vertically integrated cloud droplet number concentrations (CDNC by 25 %. Since the vertically integrated liquid water vapor is constant in our model simulations, an increase in CDNC leads to a reduction in cloud droplet radius of 3.4 % over the Southern oceans in summer. The equivalent increase in cloud liquid water path is 10.7 %. The above changes in cloud microphysical properties result in a change in global annual mean radiative forcing at the TOA of −1.4 W m−2. The results suggest that the DMS-cloud microphysics link is highly non-linear. This has implications for future studies investigating the DMS-cloud climate feedbacks in a warming world and for studies evaluating geoengineering options to counteract warming by modulating low level marine clouds.

  11. New approaches and solutions of the nonlinear force-free field

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Xie Baisong; Yin Xintao; Luo Xia

    2006-01-01

    New approaches to nonlinear force-free field equations are presented and new exact solutions are found analytically. Examples are given and some implications of the results to astrophysical solar plasmas as well as tokamak plasmas are discussed

  12. Implications for Climate Sensitivity from the Response to Individual Forcings

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marvel, Kate; Schmidt, Gavin A.; Miller, Ron L.; Nazarenko, Larissa

    2015-01-01

    Climate sensitivity to doubled CO2 is a widely-used metric of the large-scale response to external forcing. Climate models predict a wide range for two commonly used definitions: the transient climate response (TCR: the warming after 70 years of CO2 concentrations that riseat 1 per year), and the equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS: the equilibrium temperature change following a doubling of CO2 concentrations). Many observational datasets have been used to constrain these values, including temperature trends over the recent past 16, inferences from paleo-climate and process-based constraints from the modern satellite eras. However, as the IPCC recently reported different classes of observational constraints produce somewhat incongruent ranges. Here we show that climate sensitivity estimates derived from recent observations must account for the efficacy of each forcing active during the historical period. When we use single forcing experiments to estimate these efficacies and calculate climate sensitivity from the observed twentieth-century warming, our estimates of both TCR and ECS are revised upward compared to previous studies, improving the consistency with independent constraints.

  13. The effect of nonlinear forces on coherently oscillating space-charge-dominated beams

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Celata, C.M.

    1987-03-01

    A particle-in-cell computer simulation code has been used to study the transverse dynamics of nonrelativistic misaligned space-charge-dominated coasting beams in an alternating gradient focusing channel. In the presence of nonlinear forces due to dodecapole or octupole imperfections of the focusing fields or to image forces, the transverse rms emittance grows in a beat pattern. Analysis indicates that this emittance dilution is due to the driving of coherent modes of the beam near their resonant frequencies by the nonlinear force. The effects of the dodecapole and images forces can be made to effectively cancel for some boundary conditions, but the mechanism is not understood at this time

  14. Sensitivity of regional climate to global temperature and forcing

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tebaldi, Claudia; O’Neill, Brian; Lamarque, Jean-François

    2015-01-01

    The sensitivity of regional climate to global average radiative forcing and temperature change is important for setting global climate policy targets and designing scenarios. Setting effective policy targets requires an understanding of the consequences exceeding them, even by small amounts, and the effective design of sets of scenarios requires the knowledge of how different emissions, concentrations, or forcing need to be in order to produce substantial differences in climate outcomes. Using an extensive database of climate model simulations, we quantify how differences in global average quantities relate to differences in both the spatial extent and magnitude of climate outcomes at regional (250–1250 km) scales. We show that differences of about 0.3 °C in global average temperature are required to generate statistically significant changes in regional annual average temperature over more than half of the Earth’s land surface. A global difference of 0.8 °C is necessary to produce regional warming over half the land surface that is not only significant but reaches at least 1 °C. As much as 2.5 to 3 °C is required for a statistically significant change in regional annual average precipitation that is equally pervasive. Global average temperature change provides a better metric than radiative forcing for indicating differences in regional climate outcomes due to the path dependency of the effects of radiative forcing. For example, a difference in radiative forcing of 0.5 W m −2 can produce statistically significant differences in regional temperature over an area that ranges between 30% and 85% of the land surface, depending on the forcing pathway. (letter)

  15. Nonlinear FE analysis of reinforced concrete panels subjected to in-plane force

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, H. P.; Lee, S. J.; Jun, Y. S.; Su, J. M.

    2003-01-01

    Reinforced concrete structures subjected to in-plane force exhibit strong nonlinear behaviour due to complex material properties, cracks, interactions between concrete and steel and shear transfer exists in crack surface. Especially if there is crack formations, nonlinear behaviour increases. Thus the prediction of nonlinear behaviour of reinforced concrete includes failure or crushing is very difficult task. Various constitutive equations for concrete stress-strain relationship to predict nonlinear behaviour of reinforced concrete have been proposed. But the study for reinforced concrete analysis model using plastic material model is still demanded. So the purpose of this research is to formulate standard 8-node shell element using plasticity material model for concrete and to analyze nonlinear behaviour of RC panel subjected to in-plane force

  16. Forcings and feedbacks by land ecosystem changes on climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Betts, R. A.

    2006-12-01

    Vegetation change is involved in climate change through both forcing and feedback processes. Emissions of CO{2} from past net deforestation are estimated to have contributed approximately 0.22 0.51 Wm - 2 to the overall 1.46 Wm - 2 radiative forcing by anthropogenic increases in CO{2} up to the year 2000. Deforestation-induced increases in global mean surface albedo are estimated to exert a radiative forcing of 0 to -0.2 Wm - 2, and dust emissions from land use may exert a radiative forcing of between approximately +0.1 and -0.2 Wm - 2. Changes in the fluxes of latent and sensible heat due to tropical deforestation are simulated to have exerted other local warming effects which cannot be quantified in terms of a Wm - 2 radiative forcing, with the potential for remote effects through changes in atmospheric circulation. With tropical deforestation continuing rapidly, radiative forcing by surface albedo change may become less useful as a measure of the forcing of climate change by changes in the physical properties of the land surface. Although net global deforestation is continuing, future scenarios used for climate change prediction suggest that fossil fuel emissions of CO{2} may continue to increase at a greater rate than land use emissions and therefore continue to increase in dominance as the main radiative forcing. The CO{2} rise may be accelerated by up to 66% by feedbacks arising from global soil carbon loss and forest dieback in Amazonia as a consequence of climate change, and Amazon forest dieback may also exert feedbacks through changes in the local water cycle and increases in dust emissions.

  17. Climate Implications of the Heterogeneity of Anthropogenic Aerosol Forcing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Persad, Geeta Gayatri

    Short-lived anthropogenic aerosols are concentrated in regions of high human activity, where they interact with radiation and clouds, causing horizontally heterogeneous radiative forcing between polluted and unpolluted regions. Aerosols can absorb shortwave energy in the atmosphere, but deplete it at the surface, producing opposite radiative perturbations between the surface and atmosphere. This thesis investigates climate and policy implications of this horizontal and vertical heterogeneity of anthropogenic aerosol forcing, employing the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory's AM2.1 and AM3 models, both at a global scale and using East Asia as a regional case study. The degree of difference between spatial patterns of climate change due to heterogeneous aerosol forcing versus homogeneous greenhouse gas forcing deeply impacts the detection, attribution, and prediction of regional climate change. This dissertation addresses a gap in current understanding of these two forcings' response pattern development, using AM2.1 historical forcing simulations. The results indicate that fast atmospheric and land-surface processes alone substantially homogenize the global pattern of surface energy flux response to heterogeneous aerosol forcing. Aerosols' vertical redistribution of energy significantly impacts regional climate, but is incompletely understood. It is newly identified here, via observations and historical and idealized forcing simulations, that increased aerosol-driven atmospheric absorption may explain half of East Asia's recent surface insolation decline. Further, aerosols' surface and atmospheric effects counteract each other regionally---atmospheric heating enhances summer monsoon circulation, while surface dimming suppresses it---but absorbing aerosols' combined effects reduce summer monsoon rainfall. This thesis constitutes the first vertical decomposition of aerosols' impacts in this high-emissions region and elucidates the monsoonal response to aerosols

  18. The non-linear paradigm: The climate system as an egg box''

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Iversen, Trond

    2000-01-01

    The article is the last of three dealing with the problems of climatic forecasting. It presents various ways of applying models and points out that regarding the climate system as non-linear and chaotic may be useful for interpreting observations and models. Some applications of the paradigm are presented. The emphasis is on climatic changes due to energy and human activities

  19. Forests, fire, floods and fish: nonlinear biophysical responses to changing climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pierce, J. L.; Baxter, C.; Yager, E. M.; Fremier, A. K.; Crosby, B. T.; Smith, A. M.; Kennedy, B.; Hicke, J. A.; Feris, K.

    2009-12-01

    One goal of interdisciplinarity is to develop a more holistic understanding of a set of interlinked, complex system processes. Studies rarely couple both a mechanistic understanding of individual processes with their coupled influence on the entire system structure, yet the prospects for climate driven changes in western river systems provide justification for such an effort. We apply such a mechanistic and systems approach to understanding the effects of climate on fire frequency, plant-soil infiltration, sediment transport and stream community and ecosystem dynamics in a large wilderness setting that is likely to experience shifts in the timing or intensity of physical forces if projected climate change scenarios are realized. The Middle Fork Salmon River in central Idaho runs through the Frank Church Wilderness area and is the largest roadless area in the conterminous United States. The relatively southern continental position, complex mountain terrain and wealth of long-term landscape and ecological data in this region make it a tractable system to study the multifaceted and potentially non-linear processes of system change. This presents a unique opportunity to study the effects of climate change in the absence of substantial management effects in a system on the cusp of change. This collection of studies investigates the effects of climate-driven changes in hillslope processes on stream geomorphic and ecologic processes. We investigate 1) how wildfire alters the magnitude, timing and size of sediment delivered to stream channels, 2) how climate-driven changes in the proportion of rain vs. snow dominated basins alter stream hydrology, 3) how wildfire and insect disturbances modify aquatic ecosystems through inputs of nutrients and changes to habitat, 4) how paleo-records of drought, fire, and fire-related debris flows compare with recent data, 5) how fire-related inputs of sediment and wood influence the structure and dynamics of aquatic habitats, and their

  20. Broadband piezoelectric energy harvesting using nonlinear magnetic forces; Bandbreitensteigerung von piezoelektrischen Energy Harvesting Systemen durch Magnetkraefte

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Westermann, Henrik; Neubauer, Marcus; Wallaschek, Joerg [Hannover Univ. (Germany). Inst. fuer Dynamik und Schwingungen

    2012-07-15

    Using ambient energy by piezoelectric energy harvesting systems received much attention over the last years. Most vibration-based generators produce a sufficient power only if the transducer is excited in its resonance frequency. The use of magnetic forces suggests a promising strategy to increase the efficiency. This paper presents different ways for broadband piezoelectric energy harvesting using nonlinear magnetic forces. (orig.)

  1. Analysis on Forced Vibration of Thin-Wall Cylindrical Shell with Nonlinear Boundary Condition

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Qiansheng Tang

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Forced vibration of thin-wall cylindrical shell under nonlinear boundary condition was discussed in this paper. The nonlinear boundary was modeled as supported clearance in one end of shell and the restraint was assumed as linearly elastic in the radial direction. Based on Sanders’ shell theory, Lagrange equation was utilized to derive the nonlinear governing equations of cylindrical shell. The displacements in three directions were represented by beam functions and trigonometric functions. In the study of nonlinear dynamic responses of thin-wall cylindrical shell with supported clearance under external loads, the Newmark method is used to obtain time history, frequency spectrum plot, phase portraits, Poincare section, bifurcation diagrams, and three-dimensional spectrum plot with different parameters. The effects of external loads, supported clearance, and support stiffness on nonlinear dynamics behaviors of cylindrical shell with nonlinear boundary condition were discussed.

  2. Impact of Dust Radiative Forcing upon Climate. Chapter 13

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miller, Ronald L.; Knippertz, Peter; Perez Garcia-Pando, Carlos; Perlwitz, Jan P.; Tegan, Ina

    2014-01-01

    Dust aerosols perturb the atmospheric radiative flux at both solar and thermal wavelengths, altering the energy and water cycles. The climate adjusts by redistributing energy and moisture, so that local temperature perturbations, for example, depend upon the forcing over the entire extent of the perturbed circulation. Within regions frequently mixed by deep convection, including the deep tropics, dust particles perturb the surface air temperature primarily through radiative forcing at the top of the atmosphere (TOA). Many models predict that dust reduces global precipitation. This reduction is typically attributed to the decrease of surface evaporation in response to dimming of the surface. A counterexample is presented, where greater shortwave absorption by dust increases evaporation and precipitation despite greater dimming of the surface. This is attributed to the dependence of surface evaporation upon TOA forcing through its influence upon surface temperature and humidity. Perturbations by dust to the surface wind speed and vegetation (through precipitation anomalies) feed back upon the dust aerosol concentration. The current uncertainty of radiative forcing attributed to dust and the resulting range of climate perturbations calculated by models remain a useful test of our understanding of the mechanisms relating dust radiative forcing to the climate response.

  3. Future Climate Forcings and Olive Yield in a Mediterranean Orchard

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Francesco Viola

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available The olive tree is one of the most characteristic rainfed trees in the Mediterranean region. Observed and forecasted climate modifications in this region, such as the CO2 concentration and temperature increase and the net radiation, rainfall and wind speed decrease, will likely alter vegetation water stress and modify productivity. In order to simulate how climatic change could alter soil moisture dynamic, biomass growth and fruit productivity, a water-driven crop model has been used in this study. The numerical model, previously calibrated on an olive orchard located in Sicily (Italy with a satisfactory reproduction of historical olive yield data, has been forced with future climate scenarios generated using a stochastic weather generator and a downscaling procedure of an ensemble of climate model outputs. The stochastic downscaling is carried out using simulations of some General Circulation Models adopted in the fourth Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC assessment report (4AR for future scenarios. The outcomes state that climatic forcings driving potential evapotranspiration compensate for each other, resulting in a slight increase of this water demand flux; moreover, the increase of CO2 concentration leads to a potential assimilation increase and, consequently, to an overall productivity increase in spite of the growth of water stress due to the rainfall reduction.

  4. Orbital forcing of climate 1.4 billion years ago

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zhang, Shuichang; Wang, Xiaomei; Hammarlund, Emma U

    2015-01-01

    Fluctuating climate is a hallmark of Earth. As one transcends deep into Earth time, however, both the evidence for and the causes of climate change become difficult to establish. We report geochemical and sedimentological evidence for repeated, short-term climate fluctuations from the exceptionally...... well-preserved ∼1.4-billion-year-old Xiamaling Formation of the North China Craton. We observe two patterns of climate fluctuations: On long time scales, over what amounts to tens of millions of years, sediments of the Xiamaling Formation record changes in geochemistry consistent with long-term changes...... reflect what appear to be orbitally forced changes in wind patterns and ocean circulation as they influenced rates of organic carbon flux, trace metal accumulation, and the source of detrital particles to the sediment....

  5. Quantifying the astronomical contribution to Pleistocene climate change: A non-linear, statistical approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crucifix, Michel; Wilkinson, Richard; Carson, Jake; Preston, Simon; Alemeida, Carlos; Rougier, Jonathan

    2013-04-01

    The existence of an action of astronomical forcing on the Pleistocene climate is almost undisputed. However, quantifying this action is not straightforward. In particular, the phenomenon of deglaciation is generally interpreted as a manifestation of instability, which is typical of non-linear systems. As a consequence, explaining the Pleistocene climate record as the addition of an astronomical contribution and noise-as often done using harmonic analysis tools-is potentially deceptive. Rather, we advocate a methodology in which non-linear stochastic dynamical systems are calibrated on the Pleistocene climate record. The exercise, though, requires careful statistical reasoning and state-of-the-art techniques. In fact, the problem has been judged to be mathematically 'intractable and unsolved' and some pragmatism is justified. In order to illustrate the methodology we consider one dynamical system that potentially captures four dynamical features of the Pleistocene climate : the existence of a saddle-node bifurcation in at least one of its slow components, a time-scale separation between a slow and a fast component, the action of astronomical forcing, and the existence a stochastic contribution to the system dynamics. This model is obviously not the only possible representation of Pleistocene dynamics, but it encapsulates well enough both our theoretical and empirical knowledge into a very simple form to constitute a valid starting point. The purpose of this poster is to outline the practical challenges in calibrating such a model on paleoclimate observations. Just as in time series analysis, there is no one single and universal test or criteria that would demonstrate the validity of an approach. Several methods exist to calibrate the model and judgement develops by the confrontation of the results of the different methods. In particular, we consider here the Kalman filter variants, the Particle Monte-Carlo Markov Chain, and two other variants of Sequential Monte

  6. The contribution of China's emissions to global climate forcing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Bengang; Gasser, Thomas; Ciais, Philippe; Piao, Shilong; Tao, Shu; Balkanski, Yves; Hauglustaine, Didier; Boisier, Juan-Pablo; Chen, Zhuo; Huang, Mengtian; Li, Laurent Zhaoxin; Li, Yue; Liu, Hongyan; Liu, Junfeng; Peng, Shushi; Shen, Zehao; Sun, Zhenzhong; Wang, Rong; Wang, Tao; Yin, Guodong; Yin, Yi; Zeng, Hui; Zeng, Zhenzhong; Zhou, Feng

    2016-03-17

    Knowledge of the contribution that individual countries have made to global radiative forcing is important to the implementation of the agreement on "common but differentiated responsibilities" reached by the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. Over the past three decades, China has experienced rapid economic development, accompanied by increased emission of greenhouse gases, ozone precursors and aerosols, but the magnitude of the associated radiative forcing has remained unclear. Here we use a global coupled biogeochemistry-climate model and a chemistry and transport model to quantify China's present-day contribution to global radiative forcing due to well-mixed greenhouse gases, short-lived atmospheric climate forcers and land-use-induced regional surface albedo changes. We find that China contributes 10% ± 4% of the current global radiative forcing. China's relative contribution to the positive (warming) component of global radiative forcing, mainly induced by well-mixed greenhouse gases and black carbon aerosols, is 12% ± 2%. Its relative contribution to the negative (cooling) component is 15% ± 6%, dominated by the effect of sulfate and nitrate aerosols. China's strongest contributions are 0.16 ± 0.02 watts per square metre for CO2 from fossil fuel burning, 0.13 ± 0.05 watts per square metre for CH4, -0.11 ± 0.05 watts per square metre for sulfate aerosols, and 0.09 ± 0.06 watts per square metre for black carbon aerosols. China's eventual goal of improving air quality will result in changes in radiative forcing in the coming years: a reduction of sulfur dioxide emissions would drive a faster future warming, unless offset by larger reductions of radiative forcing from well-mixed greenhouse gases and black carbon.

  7. Under which climate and soil conditions the plant productivity-precipitation relationship is linear or nonlinear?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ye, Jian-Sheng; Pei, Jiu-Ying; Fang, Chao

    2018-03-01

    Understanding under which climate and soil conditions the plant productivity-precipitation relationship is linear or nonlinear is useful for accurately predicting the response of ecosystem function to global environmental change. Using long-term (2000-2016) net primary productivity (NPP)-precipitation datasets derived from satellite observations, we identify >5600pixels in the North Hemisphere landmass that fit either linear or nonlinear temporal NPP-precipitation relationships. Differences in climate (precipitation, radiation, ratio of actual to potential evapotranspiration, temperature) and soil factors (nitrogen, phosphorous, organic carbon, field capacity) between the linear and nonlinear types are evaluated. Our analysis shows that both linear and nonlinear types exhibit similar interannual precipitation variabilities and occurrences of extreme precipitation. Permutational multivariate analysis of variance suggests that linear and nonlinear types differ significantly regarding to radiation, ratio of actual to potential evapotranspiration, and soil factors. The nonlinear type possesses lower radiation and/or less soil nutrients than the linear type, thereby suggesting that nonlinear type features higher degree of limitation from resources other than precipitation. This study suggests several factors limiting the responses of plant productivity to changes in precipitation, thus causing nonlinear NPP-precipitation pattern. Precipitation manipulation and modeling experiments should combine with changes in other climate and soil factors to better predict the response of plant productivity under future climate. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  8. Nonlinear dynamic analysis of piping systems using the pseudo force method

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Prachuktam, S.; Bezler, P.; Hartzman, M.

    1979-01-01

    Simple piping systems are composed of linear elastic elements and can be analyzed using conventional linear methods. The introduction of constraint springs separated from the pipe with clearance gaps to such systems to cope with the pipe whip or other extreme excitation conditions introduces nonlinearities to the system, the nonlinearities being associated with the gaps. Since these spring-damper constraints are usually limited in number, descretely located, and produce only weak nonlinearities, the analysis of linear systems including these nonlinearities can be carried out by using modified linear methods. In particular, the application of pseudo force methods wherein the nonlinearities are treated as displacement dependent forcing functions acting on the linear system were investigated. The nonlinearities induced by the constraints are taken into account as generalized pseudo forces on the right-hand side of the governing dynamic equilibrium equations. Then an existing linear elastic finite element piping code, EPIPE, was modified to permit application of the procedure. This option was inserted such that the analyses could be performed using either the direct integration method or via a modal superposition method, the Newmark-Beta integration procedure being employed in both methods. The modified code was proof tested against several problems taken from the literature or developed with the nonlinear dynamics code OSCIL. The problems included a simple pipe loop, cantilever beam, and lumped mass system subjected to pulsed and periodic forcing functions. The problems were selected to gage the overall accuracy of the method and to insure that it properly predicted the jump phenomena associated with nonlinear systems. (orig.)

  9. Nonlinear force feedback control of piezoelectric-hydraulic pump actuator for automotive transmission shift control

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Gi-Woo; Wang, K. W.

    2008-03-01

    In recent years, researchers have investigated the feasibility of utilizing piezoelectric-hydraulic pump based actuation systems for automotive transmission controls. This new concept could eventually reduce the complexity, weight, and fuel consumption of the current transmissions. In this research, we focus on how to utilize this new approach on the shift control of automatic transmissions (AT), which generally requires pressure profiling for friction elements during the operation. To illustrate the concept, we will consider the 1--> 2 up shift control using band brake friction elements. In order to perform the actuation force tracking for AT shift control, nonlinear force feedback control laws are designed based on the sliding mode theory for the given nonlinear system. This paper will describe the modeling of the band brake actuation system, the design of the nonlinear force feedback controller, and simulation and experimental results for demonstration of the new concept.

  10. Parameter sensitivity analysis of nonlinear piezoelectric probe in tapping mode atomic force microscopy for measurement improvement

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    McCarty, Rachael; Nima Mahmoodi, S., E-mail: nmahmoodi@eng.ua.edu [Department of Mechanical Engineering, The University of Alabama, Box 870276, Tuscaloosa, Alabama 35487 (United States)

    2014-02-21

    The equations of motion for a piezoelectric microcantilever are derived for a nonlinear contact force. The analytical expressions for natural frequencies and mode shapes are obtained. Then, the method of multiple scales is used to analyze the analytical frequency response of the piezoelectric probe. The effects of nonlinear excitation force on the microcantilever beam's frequency and amplitude are analytically studied. The results show a frequency shift in the response resulting from the force nonlinearities. This frequency shift during contact mode is an important consideration in the modeling of AFM mechanics for generation of more accurate imaging. Also, a sensitivity analysis of the system parameters on the nonlinearity effect is performed. The results of a sensitivity analysis show that it is possible to choose parameters such that the frequency shift minimizes. Certain parameters such as tip radius, microcantilever beam dimensions, and modulus of elasticity have more influence on the nonlinearity of the system than other parameters. By changing only three parameters—tip radius, thickness, and modulus of elasticity of the microbeam—a more than 70% reduction in nonlinearity effect was achieved.

  11. Reconciliation of the Devils Hole climate record with orbital forcing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moseley, Gina E; Edwards, R Lawrence; Wendt, Kathleen A; Cheng, Hai; Dublyansky, Yuri; Lu, Yanbin; Boch, Ronny; Spötl, Christoph

    2016-01-08

    The driving force behind Quaternary glacial-interglacial cycles and much associated climate change is widely considered to be orbital forcing. However, previous versions of the iconic Devils Hole (Nevada) subaqueous calcite record exhibit shifts to interglacial values ~10,000 years before orbitally forced ice age terminations, and interglacial durations ~10,000 years longer than other estimates. Our measurements from Devils Hole 2 replicate virtually all aspects of the past 204,000 years of earlier records, except for the timing during terminations, and they lower the age of the record near Termination II by ~8000 years, removing both ~10,000-year anomalies. The shift to interglacial values now broadly coincides with the rise in boreal summer insolation, the marine termination, and the rise in atmospheric CO2, which is consistent with mechanisms ultimately tied to orbital forcing. Copyright © 2016, American Association for the Advancement of Science.

  12. Orbital Forcing driving climate variability on Tropical South Atlantic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oliveira, A. S.; Baker, P. A.; Silva, C. G.; Dwyer, G. S.; Chiessi, C. M.; Rigsby, C. A.; Ferreira, F.

    2017-12-01

    Past research on climate response to orbital forcing in tropical South America has emphasized on high precession cycles influencing low latitude hydrologic cycles, and driving the meridional migration of Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ).However, marine proxy records from the tropical Pacific Ocean showed a strong 41-ka periodicities in Pleistocene seawater temperature and productivity related to fluctuations in Earth's obliquity. It Indicates that the western Pacific ITCZ migration was influenced by combined precession and obliquity changes. To reconstruct different climate regimes over the continent and understand the orbital cycle forcing over Tropical South America climate, hydrological reconstruction have been undertaken on sediment cores located on the Brazilian continental slope, representing the past 1.6 million years. Core CDH 79 site is located on a 2345 m deep seamount on the northern Brazilian continental slope (00° 39.6853' N, 44° 20.7723' W), 320 km from modern coastline of the Maranhão Gulf. High-resolution XRF analyses of Fe, Ti, K and Ca are used to define the changes in precipitation and sedimentary input history of Tropical South America. The response of the hydrology cycle to orbital forcing was studied using spectral analysis.The 1600 ka records of dry/wet conditions presented here indicates that orbital time-scale climate change has been a dominant feature of tropical climate. We conclude that the observed oscillation reflects variability in the ITCZ activity associated with the Earth's tilt. The prevalence of the eccentricity and obliquity signals in continental hydrology proxies (Ti/Ca and Fe/K) as implicated in our precipitation records, highlights that these orbital forcings play an important role in tropics hydrologic cycles. Throughout the Quaternary abrupt shifts of tropical variability are temporally correlated with abrupt climate changes and atmospheric reorganization during Mid-Pleistocene Transition and Mid-Brunhes Events

  13. Nonlinear Dynamics of Cantilever-Sample Interactions in Atomic Force Microscopy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cantrell, John H.; Cantrell, Sean A.

    2010-01-01

    The interaction of the cantilever tip of an atomic force microscope (AFM) with the sample surface is obtained by treating the cantilever and sample as independent systems coupled by a nonlinear force acting between the cantilever tip and a volume element of the sample surface. The volume element is subjected to a restoring force from the remainder of the sample that provides dynamical equilibrium for the combined systems. The model accounts for the positions on the cantilever of the cantilever tip, laser probe, and excitation force (if any) via a basis set of set of orthogonal functions that may be generalized to account for arbitrary cantilever shapes. The basis set is extended to include nonlinear cantilever modes. The model leads to a pair of coupled nonlinear differential equations that are solved analytically using a matrix iteration procedure. The effects of oscillatory excitation forces applied either to the cantilever or to the sample surface (or to both) are obtained from the solution set and applied to the to the assessment of phase and amplitude signals generated by various acoustic-atomic force microscope (A-AFM) modalities. The influence of bistable cantilever modes of on AFM signal generation is discussed. The effects on the cantilever-sample surface dynamics of subsurface features embedded in the sample that are perturbed by surface-generated oscillatory excitation forces and carried to the cantilever via wave propagation are accounted by the Bolef-Miller propagating wave model. Expressions pertaining to signal generation and image contrast in A-AFM are obtained and applied to amplitude modulation (intermittent contact) atomic force microscopy and resonant difference-frequency atomic force ultrasonic microscopy (RDF-AFUM). The influence of phase accumulation in A-AFM on image contrast is discussed, as is the effect of hard contact and maximum nonlinearity regimes of A-AFM operation.

  14. Modified ocean circulation, albedo instability and ice-flow instability. Risks of non-linear climate change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ham, J. van; Beer, R.J. van; Builtjes, P.J.H.; Roemer, M.G.M. [TNO Inst. of Environmental Sciences, Delft (Netherlands); Koennen, G.P. [KNMI, Royal Netherlands Meteorological Inst., de Bilt (Netherlands); Oerlemans, J. [Utrecht Univ. (Netherlands). Inst. for Meteorological and Atmospheric Research

    1995-12-31

    In this presentation part of an investigation is described into risks for climate change which are presently not adequately covered in General Circulation Models. In the concept of climate change as a result of the enhanced greenhouse effect it is generally assumed that the radiative forcings from increased concentrations of greenhouse gases (GHG) will result in a proportional or quasilinear global warming. Though correlations of this kind are known from palaeoclimate research, the variability of the climate seems to prevent the direct proof of a causal relation between recent greenhouse gas concentrations and temperature observations. In order to resolve the issue the use of General Circulation Models (GCMs), though still inadequate at present, is indispensable. Around the world some 10 leading GCMs exist which have been the subject of evaluation and intercomparison in a number of studies. Their results are regularly assessed in the IPCC process. A discussion on their performance in simulating present or past climates and the causes of their weak points shows that the depiction of clouds is a major weakness of GCMs. A second element which is virtually absent in GCMs are the feedbacks from natural biogeochemical cycles. These cycles are influenced by man in a number of ways. GCMs have a limited performance in simulating regional effects on climate. Moreover, albedo instability, in part due to its interaction with cloudiness, is only roughly represented. Apparently, not all relevant processes have been included in the GCMs. That situation constitutes a risk, since it cannot be ruled out that a missing process could cause or trigger a non-linear climate change. In the study non-linear climate change is connected with those processes which could provide feedbacks with a risk for non-monotonous or discontinuous behaviour of the climate system, or which are unpredictable or could cause rapid transitions

  15. Modified ocean circulation, albedo instability and ice-flow instability. Risks of non-linear climate change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ham, J van; Beer, R.J. van; Builtjes, P J.H.; Roemer, M G.M. [TNO Inst. of Environmental Sciences, Delft (Netherlands); Koennen, G P [KNMI, Royal Netherlands Meteorological Inst., de Bilt (Netherlands); Oerlemans, J [Utrecht Univ. (Netherlands). Inst. for Meteorological and Atmospheric Research

    1996-12-31

    In this presentation part of an investigation is described into risks for climate change which are presently not adequately covered in General Circulation Models. In the concept of climate change as a result of the enhanced greenhouse effect it is generally assumed that the radiative forcings from increased concentrations of greenhouse gases (GHG) will result in a proportional or quasilinear global warming. Though correlations of this kind are known from palaeoclimate research, the variability of the climate seems to prevent the direct proof of a causal relation between recent greenhouse gas concentrations and temperature observations. In order to resolve the issue the use of General Circulation Models (GCMs), though still inadequate at present, is indispensable. Around the world some 10 leading GCMs exist which have been the subject of evaluation and intercomparison in a number of studies. Their results are regularly assessed in the IPCC process. A discussion on their performance in simulating present or past climates and the causes of their weak points shows that the depiction of clouds is a major weakness of GCMs. A second element which is virtually absent in GCMs are the feedbacks from natural biogeochemical cycles. These cycles are influenced by man in a number of ways. GCMs have a limited performance in simulating regional effects on climate. Moreover, albedo instability, in part due to its interaction with cloudiness, is only roughly represented. Apparently, not all relevant processes have been included in the GCMs. That situation constitutes a risk, since it cannot be ruled out that a missing process could cause or trigger a non-linear climate change. In the study non-linear climate change is connected with those processes which could provide feedbacks with a risk for non-monotonous or discontinuous behaviour of the climate system, or which are unpredictable or could cause rapid transitions

  16. Nonlinear Transient Thermal Analysis by the Force-Derivative Method

    Science.gov (United States)

    Balakrishnan, Narayani V.; Hou, Gene

    1997-01-01

    High-speed vehicles such as the Space Shuttle Orbiter must withstand severe aerodynamic heating during reentry through the atmosphere. The Shuttle skin and substructure are constructed primarily of aluminum, which must be protected during reentry with a thermal protection system (TPS) from being overheated beyond the allowable temperature limit, so that the structural integrity is maintained for subsequent flights. High-temperature reusable surface insulation (HRSI), a popular choice of passive insulation system, typically absorbs the incoming radiative or convective heat at its surface and then re-radiates most of it to the atmosphere while conducting the smallest amount possible to the structure by virtue of its low diffusivity. In order to ensure a successful thermal performance of the Shuttle under a prescribed reentry flight profile, a preflight reentry heating thermal analysis of the Shuttle must be done. The surface temperature profile, the transient response of the HRSI interior, and the structural temperatures are all required to evaluate the functioning of the HRSI. Transient temperature distributions which identify the regions of high temperature gradients, are also required to compute the thermal loads for a structural thermal stress analysis. Furthermore, a nonlinear analysis is necessary to account for the temperature-dependent thermal properties of the HRSI as well as to model radiation losses.

  17. CLIMATE CHANGE. Long-term climate forcing by atmospheric oxygen concentrations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Poulsen, Christopher J; Tabor, Clay; White, Joseph D

    2015-06-12

    The percentage of oxygen in Earth's atmosphere varied between 10% and 35% throughout the Phanerozoic. These changes have been linked to the evolution, radiation, and size of animals but have not been considered to affect climate. We conducted simulations showing that modulation of the partial pressure of oxygen (pO2), as a result of its contribution to atmospheric mass and density, influences the optical depth of the atmosphere. Under low pO2 and a reduced-density atmosphere, shortwave scattering by air molecules and clouds is less frequent, leading to a substantial increase in surface shortwave forcing. Through feedbacks involving latent heat fluxes to the atmosphere and marine stratus clouds, surface shortwave forcing drives increases in atmospheric water vapor and global precipitation, enhances greenhouse forcing, and raises global surface temperature. Our results implicate pO2 as an important factor in climate forcing throughout geologic time. Copyright © 2015, American Association for the Advancement of Science.

  18. Modified multiple time scale method for solving strongly nonlinear damped forced vibration systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Razzak, M. A.; Alam, M. Z.; Sharif, M. N.

    2018-03-01

    In this paper, modified multiple time scale (MTS) method is employed to solve strongly nonlinear forced vibration systems. The first-order approximation is only considered in order to avoid complexicity. The formulations and the determination of the solution procedure are very easy and straightforward. The classical multiple time scale (MS) and multiple scales Lindstedt-Poincare method (MSLP) do not give desire result for the strongly damped forced vibration systems with strong damping effects. The main aim of this paper is to remove these limitations. Two examples are considered to illustrate the effectiveness and convenience of the present procedure. The approximate external frequencies and the corresponding approximate solutions are determined by the present method. The results give good coincidence with corresponding numerical solution (considered to be exact) and also provide better result than other existing results. For weak nonlinearities with weak damping effect, the absolute relative error measures (first-order approximate external frequency) in this paper is only 0.07% when amplitude A = 1.5 , while the relative error gives MSLP method is surprisingly 28.81%. Furthermore, for strong nonlinearities with strong damping effect, the absolute relative error found in this article is only 0.02%, whereas the relative error obtained by MSLP method is 24.18%. Therefore, the present method is not only valid for weakly nonlinear damped forced systems, but also gives better result for strongly nonlinear systems with both small and strong damping effect.

  19. Contributions of changes in climatology and perturbation and the resulting nonlinearity to regional climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adachi, Sachiho A; Nishizawa, Seiya; Yoshida, Ryuji; Yamaura, Tsuyoshi; Ando, Kazuto; Yashiro, Hisashi; Kajikawa, Yoshiyuki; Tomita, Hirofumi

    2017-12-20

    Future changes in large-scale climatology and perturbation may have different impacts on regional climate change. It is important to understand the impacts of climatology and perturbation in terms of both thermodynamic and dynamic changes. Although many studies have investigated the influence of climatology changes on regional climate, the significance of perturbation changes is still debated. The nonlinear effect of these two changes is also unknown. We propose a systematic procedure that extracts the influences of three factors: changes in climatology, changes in perturbation and the resulting nonlinear effect. We then demonstrate the usefulness of the procedure, applying it to future changes in precipitation. All three factors have the same degree of influence, especially for extreme rainfall events. Thus, regional climate assessments should consider not only the climatology change but also the perturbation change and their nonlinearity. This procedure can advance interpretations of future regional climates.

  20. Nonlinear dynamics in ecosystem response to climatic change: Case studies and policy implications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burkett, Virginia R.; Wilcox, Douglas A.; Stottlemyer, Robert; Barrow, Wylie; Fagre, Dan; Baron, Jill S.; Price, Jeff; Nielsen, Jennifer L.; Allen, Craig D.; Peterson, David L.; Ruggerone, Greg; Doyle, Thomas

    2005-01-01

    Many biological, hydrological, and geological processes are interactively linked in ecosystems. These ecological phenomena normally vary within bounded ranges, but rapid, nonlinear changes to markedly different conditions can be triggered by even small differences if threshold values are exceeded. Intrinsic and extrinsic ecological thresholds can lead to effects that cascade among systems, precluding accurate modeling and prediction of system response to climate change. Ten case studies from North America illustrate how changes in climate can lead to rapid, threshold-type responses within ecological communities; the case studies also highlight the role of human activities that alter the rate or direction of system response to climate change. Understanding and anticipating nonlinear dynamics are important aspects of adaptation planning since responses of biological resources to changes in the physical climate system are not necessarily proportional and sometimes, as in the case of complex ecological systems, inherently nonlinear.

  1. Climate forcing and desert malaria: the effect of irrigation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baeza, Andres; Bouma, Menno J; Dobson, Andy P; Dhiman, Ramesh; Srivastava, Harish C; Pascual, Mercedes

    2011-07-14

    Rainfall variability and associated remote sensing indices for vegetation are central to the development of early warning systems for epidemic malaria in arid regions. The considerable change in land-use practices resulting from increasing irrigation in recent decades raises important questions on concomitant change in malaria dynamics and its coupling to climate forcing. Here, the consequences of irrigation level for malaria epidemics are addressed with extensive time series data for confirmed Plasmodium falciparum monthly cases, spanning over two decades for five districts in north-west India. The work specifically focuses on the response of malaria epidemics to rainfall forcing and how this response is affected by increasing irrigation. Remote sensing data for the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) are used as an integrated measure of rainfall to examine correlation maps within the districts and at regional scales. The analyses specifically address whether irrigation has decreased the coupling between malaria incidence and climate variability, and whether this reflects (1) a breakdown of NDVI as a useful indicator of risk, (2) a weakening of rainfall forcing and a concomitant decrease in epidemic risk, or (3) an increase in the control of malaria transmission. The predictive power of NDVI is compared against that of rainfall, using simple linear models and wavelet analysis to study the association of NDVI and malaria variability in the time and in the frequency domain respectively. The results show that irrigation dampens the influence of climate forcing on the magnitude and frequency of malaria epidemics and, therefore, reduces their predictability. At low irrigation levels, this decoupling reflects a breakdown of local but not regional NDVI as an indicator of rainfall forcing. At higher levels of irrigation, the weakened role of climate variability may be compounded by increased levels of control; nevertheless this leads to no significant decrease

  2. Approximations for Large Deflection of a Cantilever Beam under a Terminal Follower Force and Nonlinear Pendulum

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H. Vázquez-Leal

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available In theoretical mechanics field, solution methods for nonlinear differential equations are very important because many problems are modelled using such equations. In particular, large deflection of a cantilever beam under a terminal follower force and nonlinear pendulum problem can be described by the same nonlinear differential equation. Therefore, in this work, we propose some approximate solutions for both problems using nonlinearities distribution homotopy perturbation method, homotopy perturbation method, and combinations with Laplace-Padé posttreatment. We will show the high accuracy of the proposed cantilever solutions, which are in good agreement with other reported solutions. Finally, for the pendulum case, the proposed approximation was useful to predict, accurately, the period for an angle up to 179.99999999∘ yielding a relative error of 0.01222747.

  3. Nonlinear adaptive robust back stepping force control of hydraulic load simulator: Theory and experiments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yao, Jianyong; Jiao, Zongxia; Yao, Bin

    2014-01-01

    High performance robust force control of hydraulic load simulator with constant but unknown hydraulic parameters is considered. In contrast to the linear control based on hydraulic linearization equations, hydraulic inherent nonlinear properties and uncertainties make the conventional feedback proportional-integral-derivative (PID) control not yield to high performance requirements. Furthermore, the hydraulic system may be subjected to non-smooth and discontinuous nonlinearities due to the directional change of valve opening. In this paper, based on a nonlinear system model of hydraulic load simulator, a discontinuous projection-based nonlinear adaptive robust back stepping controller is developed with servo valve dynamics. The proposed controller constructs a novel stable adaptive controller and adaptation laws with additional pressure dynamic related unknown parameters, which can compensate for the system nonlinearities and uncertain parameters, meanwhile a well-designed robust controller is also synthesized to dominate the model uncertainties coming from both parametric uncertainties and uncertain nonlinearities including unmodeled and ignored system dynamics. The controller theoretically guarantee a prescribed transient performance and final tracking accuracy in presence of both parametric uncertainties and uncertain nonlinearities; while achieving asymptotic output tracking in the absence of unstructured uncertainties. The implementation issues are also discussed for controller simplification. Some comparative results are obtained to verify the high-performance nature of the proposed controller.

  4. Nonlinear adaptive robust back stepping force control of hydraulic load simulator: Theory and experiments

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yao, Jianyong [Nanjing University of Science and Technology, Nanjing (China); Jiao, Zongxia [Beihang University, Beijing (China); Yao, Bin [Purdue University, West Lafayette (United States)

    2014-04-15

    High performance robust force control of hydraulic load simulator with constant but unknown hydraulic parameters is considered. In contrast to the linear control based on hydraulic linearization equations, hydraulic inherent nonlinear properties and uncertainties make the conventional feedback proportional-integral-derivative (PID) control not yield to high performance requirements. Furthermore, the hydraulic system may be subjected to non-smooth and discontinuous nonlinearities due to the directional change of valve opening. In this paper, based on a nonlinear system model of hydraulic load simulator, a discontinuous projection-based nonlinear adaptive robust back stepping controller is developed with servo valve dynamics. The proposed controller constructs a novel stable adaptive controller and adaptation laws with additional pressure dynamic related unknown parameters, which can compensate for the system nonlinearities and uncertain parameters, meanwhile a well-designed robust controller is also synthesized to dominate the model uncertainties coming from both parametric uncertainties and uncertain nonlinearities including unmodeled and ignored system dynamics. The controller theoretically guarantee a prescribed transient performance and final tracking accuracy in presence of both parametric uncertainties and uncertain nonlinearities; while achieving asymptotic output tracking in the absence of unstructured uncertainties. The implementation issues are also discussed for controller simplification. Some comparative results are obtained to verify the high-performance nature of the proposed controller.

  5. Radiative forcing in the ACCMIP historical and future climate simulations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. T. Shindell

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available The Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP examined the short-lived drivers of climate change in current climate models. Here we evaluate the 10 ACCMIP models that included aerosols, 8 of which also participated in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5. The models reproduce present-day total aerosol optical depth (AOD relatively well, though many are biased low. Contributions from individual aerosol components are quite different, however, and most models underestimate east Asian AOD. The models capture most 1980–2000 AOD trends well, but underpredict increases over the Yellow/Eastern Sea. They strongly underestimate absorbing AOD in many regions. We examine both the direct radiative forcing (RF and the forcing including rapid adjustments (effective radiative forcing; ERF, including direct and indirect effects. The models' all-sky 1850 to 2000 global mean annual average total aerosol RF is (mean; range −0.26 W m−2; −0.06 to −0.49 W m−2. Screening based on model skill in capturing observed AOD yields a best estimate of −0.42 W m−2; −0.33 to −0.50 W m−2, including adjustment for missing aerosol components in some models. Many ACCMIP and CMIP5 models appear to produce substantially smaller aerosol RF than this best estimate. Climate feedbacks contribute substantially (35 to −58% to modeled historical aerosol RF. The 1850 to 2000 aerosol ERF is −1.17 W m−2; −0.71 to −1.44 W m−2. Thus adjustments, including clouds, typically cause greater forcing than direct RF. Despite this, the multi-model spread relative to the mean is typically the same for ERF as it is for RF, or even smaller, over areas with substantial forcing. The largest 1850 to 2000 negative aerosol RF and ERF values are over and near Europe, south and east Asia and North America. ERF, however, is positive over the Sahara, the Karakoram, high Southern latitudes and especially the Arctic. Global aerosol RF

  6. Radiative forcing in the ACCMIP historical and future climate simulations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Shindell, D. T.; Lamarque, J. -F.; Schulz, M.; Flanner, M.; Jiao, C.; Chin, M.; Young, P. J.; Lee, Y. H.; Rotstayn, L.; Mahowald, N.; Milly, G.; Faluvegi, G.; Balkanski, Y.; Collins, W. J.; Conley, A. J.; Dalsoren, S.; Easter, R.; Ghan, S.; Horowitz, L.; Liu, X.; Myhre, G.; Nagashima, T.; Naik, V.; Rumbold, S. T.; Skeie, R.; Sudo, K.; Szopa, S.; Takemura, T.; Voulgarakis, A.; Yoon, J. -H.; Lo, F.

    2013-01-01

    The Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP) examined the short-lived drivers of climate change in current climate models. Here we evaluate the 10 ACCMIP models that included aerosols, 8 of which also participated in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5). The models reproduce present-day total aerosol optical depth (AOD) relatively well, though many are biased low. Contributions from individual aerosol components are quite different, however, and most models underestimate east Asian AOD. The models capture most 1980-2000 AOD trends well, but underpredict increases over the Yellow/Eastern Sea. They strongly underestimate absorbing AOD in many regions. We examine both the direct radiative forcing (RF) and the forcing including rapid adjustments (effective radiative forcing; ERF, including direct and indirect effects). The models’ all-sky 1850 to 2000 global mean annual average total aerosol RF is (mean; range) -0.26Wm-2-2. Screening based on model skill in capturing observed AOD yields a best estimate of -0.42Wm-2-2Climate feedbacks contribute substantially (35 to -58 %) to modeled historical aerosol RF. The 1850 to 2000 aerosol ERF is -1.17Wm-2-2forcing than direct RF. Despite this, the multi-model spread relative to the mean is typically the same for ERF as it is for RF, or even smaller, over areas with substantial forcing. The largest 1850 to 2000 negative aerosol RF and ERF values are over and near Europe, south and east Asia and North America. ERF, however, is positive over the Sahara, the Karakoram, high Southern latitudes and especially the Arctic. Global

  7. Nonlinear Dynamical Modes as a Basis for Short-Term Forecast of Climate Variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feigin, A. M.; Mukhin, D.; Gavrilov, A.; Seleznev, A.; Loskutov, E.

    2017-12-01

    We study abilities of data-driven stochastic models constructed by nonlinear dynamical decomposition of spatially distributed data to quantitative (short-term) forecast of climate characteristics. We compare two data processing techniques: (i) widely used empirical orthogonal function approach, and (ii) nonlinear dynamical modes (NDMs) framework [1,2]. We also make comparison of two kinds of the prognostic models: (i) traditional autoregression (linear) model and (ii) model in the form of random ("stochastic") nonlinear dynamical system [3]. We apply all combinations of the above-mentioned data mining techniques and kinds of models to short-term forecasts of climate indices based on sea surface temperature (SST) data. We use NOAA_ERSST_V4 dataset (monthly SST with space resolution 20 × 20) covering the tropical belt and starting from the year 1960. We demonstrate that NDM-based nonlinear model shows better prediction skill versus EOF-based linear and nonlinear models. Finally we discuss capability of NDM-based nonlinear model for long-term (decadal) prediction of climate variability. [1] D. Mukhin, A. Gavrilov, E. Loskutov , A.Feigin, J.Kurths, 2015: Principal nonlinear dynamical modes of climate variability, Scientific Reports, rep. 5, 15510; doi: 10.1038/srep15510. [2] Gavrilov, A., Mukhin, D., Loskutov, E., Volodin, E., Feigin, A., & Kurths, J., 2016: Method for reconstructing nonlinear modes with adaptive structure from multidimensional data. Chaos: An Interdisciplinary Journal of Nonlinear Science, 26(12), 123101. [3] Ya. Molkov, D. Mukhin, E. Loskutov, A. Feigin, 2012: Random dynamical models from time series. Phys. Rev. E, Vol. 85, n.3.

  8. Force Control and Nonlinear Master-Slave Force Profile to Manage an Admittance Type Multi-Fingered Haptic User Interface

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Anthony L. Crawford

    2012-08-01

    Natural movements and force feedback are important elements in using teleoperated equipment if complex and speedy manipulation tasks are to be accomplished in remote and/or hazardous environments, such as hot cells, glove boxes, decommissioning, explosives disarmament, and space to name a few. In order to achieve this end the research presented in this paper has developed an admittance type exoskeleton like multi-fingered haptic hand user interface that secures the user’s palm and provides 3-dimensional force feedback to the user’s fingertips. Atypical to conventional haptic hand user interfaces that limit themselves to integrating the human hand’s characteristics just into the system’s mechanical design this system also perpetuates that inspiration into the designed user interface’s controller. This is achieved by manifesting the property differences of manipulation and grasping activities as they pertain to the human hand into a nonlinear master-slave force relationship. The results presented in this paper show that the admittance-type system has sufficient bandwidth that it appears nearly transparent to the user when the user is in free motion and when the system is subjected to a manipulation task, increased performance is achieved using the nonlinear force relationship compared to the traditional linear scaling techniques implemented in the vast majority of systems.

  9. Higher order terms of the nonlinear forces in plasmas with collisions at laser interaction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kentwell, G.W.; Hora, H.

    1980-01-01

    The evaluation of the general expression of the nonlinear force of laser-plasma interaction showed discrepancies depending on the assumptions of the phase and collisions in the expressions used for E and H. While the first order terms of the derivations are remaining unchanged, new third order terms are found for the case of perpendicular incidence without collisions. With collisions, the additional non-pondermotive terms are derived to be more general than known before. It is then possible to evaluate the forces for oblique incidence with collisions and find an absorption caused force in the plane of the plasma surface. (author)

  10. Non-linear vibrations induced by fluidelastic forces in tube bundles

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Langre, E. de; Hadj-Sadok, C.; Beaufils, B.

    1992-01-01

    We present in this paper computations of the response of a loosely supported tube to fluid elastic forces. Several models of forces are considered, including negative damping, coupling forces and Price and Paidoussis' model. Unidirectional and bidirectional motions are studied, special attention being paid to the evolution of dynamic parameters influencing wear and to the changes in the dynamic regimes. The influence of the coefficient of friction is also analysed. A corrective methodology is proposed for the use of the negative damping model in non-linear computations

  11. Radiative Forcing in the ACCMIP Historical and Future Climate Simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shindell, Drew Todd; Lamarque, J.-F.; Schulz, M.; Flanner, M.; Jiao, C.; Chin, M.; Young, P. J.; Lee, Y. H.; Rotstayn, L.; Mahowald, N.; hide

    2013-01-01

    A primary goal of the Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model IntercomparisonProject (ACCMIP) was to characterize the short-lived drivers of preindustrial to 2100climate change in the current generation of climate models. Here we evaluate historicaland 5 future radiative forcing in the 10 ACCMIP models that included aerosols, 8 of whichalso participated in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5).The models generally reproduce present-day climatological total aerosol opticaldepth (AOD) relatively well. components to this total, however, and most appear to underestimate AOD over East10 Asia. The models generally capture 1980-2000 AOD trends fairly well, though theyunderpredict AOD increases over the YellowEastern Sea. They appear to strongly underestimate absorbing AOD, especially in East Asia, South and Southeast Asia, SouthAmerica and Southern Hemisphere Africa.We examined both the conventional direct radiative forcing at the tropopause (RF) and the forcing including rapid adjustments (adjusted forcing AF, including direct andindirect effects). The models calculated all aerosol all-sky 1850 to 2000 global meanannual average RF ranges from 0.06 to 0.49 W m(sup -2), with a mean of 0.26 W m(sup -2) and a median of 0.27 W m(sup -2. Adjusting for missing aerosol components in some modelsbrings the range to 0.12 to 0.62W m(sup -2), with a mean of 0.39W m(sup -2). Screen20ing the models based on their ability to capture spatial patterns and magnitudes ofAOD and AOD trends yields a quality-controlled mean of 0.42W m(sup -2) and range of0.33 to 0.50 W m(sup -2) (accounting for missing components). The CMIP5 subset of ACCMIPmodels spans 0.06 to 0.49W m(sup -2), suggesting some CMIP5 simulations likelyhave too little aerosol RF. A substantial, but not well quantified, contribution to histori25cal aerosol RF may come from climate feedbacks (35 to 58). The mean aerosol AF during this period is 1.12W m(sup -2) (median value 1.16W m(sup -2), range 0.72 to1.44W m

  12. Nonlinear dynamic response of cantilever beam tip during atomic force microscopy (AFM) nanolithography of copper surface

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yeh, Y-L; Jang, M-J; Wang, C-C; Lin, Y-P; Chen, K-S

    2008-01-01

    This paper investigates the nonlinear dynamic response of an atomic force microscope (AFM) cantilever beam tip during the nanolithography of a copper (Cu) surface using a high-depth feed. The dynamic motion of the tip is modeled using a combined approach based on Newton's law and empirical observations. The cutting force is determined from experimental observations of the piling height on the Cu surface and the rotation angle of the cantilever beam tip. It is found that the piling height increases linearly with the cantilever beam carrier velocity. Furthermore, the cantilever beam tip is found to execute a saw tooth motion. Both this motion and the shear cutting force are nonlinear. The elastic modulus in the y direction is variable. Finally, the velocity of the cantilever beam tip as it traverses the specimen surface has a discrete characteristic rather than a smooth, continuous profile

  13. Free vibration of geometrically nonlinear micro-switches under electrostatic and Casimir forces

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jia, X L; Kitipornchai, S; Lim, C W; Yang, J

    2010-01-01

    This paper investigates the free vibration characteristics of micro-switches under combined electrostatic, intermolecular forces and axial residual stress, with an emphasis on the effect of geometric nonlinear deformation due to mid-plane stretching and the influence of Casimir force. The micro-switch considered in this study is made of either homogeneous material or non-homogeneous functionally graded material with two material phases. The Euler–Bernoulli beam theory with von Karman type nonlinear kinematics is applied in the theoretical formulation. The principle of virtual work is used to derive the nonlinear governing differential equation. The eigenvalue problem which describes free vibration of the micro-beam at its statically deflected state is then solved using the differential quadrature method. The natural frequencies and mode shapes of micro-switches for four different boundary conditions (i.e. clamped–clamped, clamped–simply supported, simply supported and clamped–free) are obtained. The solutions are validated through direct comparisons with experimental and other existing results reported in previous studies. A parametric study is conducted to show the significant effects of geometric nonlinearity, Casimir force, axial residual stress and material composition for the natural frequencies

  14. Forced vibration of nonlinear system with symmetrical piecewise-linear characteristics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Watanabe, Takeshi

    1983-01-01

    It is fairly difficult to treat exactly the analysis of a vibrating system including some play because it is accompanied by a strong nonlinear phenomenon of collision. The author attempted the theoretical analysis by the exact solution using series solution and the approximate solution, treating the forced vibration of a system having some play as the forced vibration of a continuous system with nonlinear boundary condition or the colliding vibration of a continuum. In this report, the problem of such system with play is treated as a nonlinear system having the symmetrical, piecewise linear characteristics of one degree of freedom. That is, it is considered that at the time of collision due to play, the collided body causes the deformation accompanied by triangular hystersis elastically and plastically, and the spring characteristics of restitution force change piecewise by the collision. The exact solution using series solution and the approximate solution are performed, and the effectiveness of these theoretical solutions is confirmed by comparing with the solution using an analog computer. The relation between the accuracy of two analysis methods and nonlinear parameters is shown by the examples of numerical calculation. (Kako, I.)

  15. Forcing of Climate Variations by Mev-gev Particles

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tinsley, Brian A.

    1990-01-01

    Changes in ionization production in the lower stratosphere by a few percent during Forbush decreases have been shown to correlate well with changes in winter tropospheric dynamics by a similar relatively small amount. Changes in ionization production by tens of percent on the decadal time scale have been shown to be correlated with changes in winter storm frequencies by tens of percent in the western North Atlantic. Changes in total solar irradiance or solar UV do not have time variations to match the tropospheric variations on the day to day time scales discussed here. Forcing related to magnetic activity is not supported. Thus solar wind/MeV-GeV particle changes appear to be the only viable forcing function for these day to day variations. If solar wind/particle forcing of a few percent amplitude can produce short term weather responses, then observed changes by tens of percent on the decadal and centennial time scale could produce climate changes on these longer time scales. The changes in circulation involved would produce regional climate changes, as observed. At present the relations between stratospheric ionization, electric fields and chemistry and aerosol and cloud microphysics are as poorly known as the relations between the latter and storm feedback processes. However, the capability for investigating these relationships now exists and has recently been most successfully used for elucidating the stratospheric chemistry and cloud microphysics associated with the Antarctic ozone hole. The economic benefits of being able to predict winter severity on an interannual basis, and the extent to which climate change related to solar variability will add to or substract from the greenhouse effect, should be more than adequate to justify support for research in this area.

  16. A novel method for non-parametric identification of nonlinear restoring forces in nonlinear vibrations from noisy response data: A conservative system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jang, T. S.; Kwon, S. H.; Han, S. L.

    2009-01-01

    A novel procedure is proposed to identify the functional form of nonlinear restoring forces in the nonlinear oscillatory motion of a conservative system. Although the problem of identification has a unique solution, formulation results in a Volterra-type of integral equation of the 'first' kind: the solution lacks stability because the integral equation is the 'first' kind. Thus, the new problem at hand is ill-posed. Inevitable small errors during the identification procedure can make the prediction of nonlinear restoring forces useless. We overcome the difficulty by using a stabilization technique of Landweber's regularization in this study. The capability of the proposed procedure is investigated through numerical examples

  17. Nonlinearity and Fractal Properties of Climate Change during the Past 500 Years in Northwestern China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shiquan Wan

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available By using detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA, the present paper analyzed the nonlinearity and fractal properties of tree-ring records from two types of trees in northwestern China, and then we disclosed climate change characteristics during the past 500 years in this area. The results indicate that climate change in northwestern China displayed a long-range correlation (LRC, which can exist over time span of 100 years or longer. This conclusion provides a theoretical basis for long-term climate predictions. Combining the DFA results obtained from daily temperatures records at the Xi’an meteorological observation station, which is near the southern peak of the Huashan Mountains, self-similarities widely existed in climate change on monthly, seasonal, annual, and decadal timescales during the past 500 years in northwestern China, and this change was a typical nonlinear process.

  18. Landscape dynamics and different climate forcings in eastern Mongolia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moore, N. J.; John, R.; Chen, J.

    2017-12-01

    Central and Eastern Mongolia have witnessed significant decreasing greening from the period 2000-2012. This decline may be partially, directly due to increased grazing pressure from livestock. Our study objective is to understand how landscape change may be altering heat fluxes and precipitation. Using the RAMS 6.0 regional climate model, we simulated the spatiotemporal changes in growing-season precipitation and atmospheric behavior under: (a) observed vegetation, and (b) aggressively reduced vegetation, to prognose likely locations and changes of the regional climate that might have resulted from land cover changes (2001-2010). We simulated a dzud/drought year (using forcing from 2001) and a wet year (using forcing from 2003). Our simulations show increased cloud cover and reduced daily temperature ranges for northeastern Mongolia where forest growth has expanded. Localized differences of 60 W/m2 of sensible heat flux were found when degraded landscape cover replaced older, more dense cover. More importantly, the overall trend towards reduced vegetation cover was responsible for higher screen height temperatures and reduced soil moisture throughout much of the domain, together with a shift of moisture southward of Inner Mongolia. Thus, even with improved chances for convection, soil moisture reductions of 5-10% would lead to overall even drier conditions. In the steppe regions around the Gobi desert, more complex patterns are evident and landscape drivers are less clear.

  19. Nonlinear dynamic analysis of atomic force microscopy under deterministic and random excitation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pishkenari, Hossein Nejat; Behzad, Mehdi; Meghdari, Ali

    2008-01-01

    The atomic force microscope (AFM) system has evolved into a useful tool for direct measurements of intermolecular forces with atomic-resolution characterization that can be employed in a broad spectrum of applications. This paper is devoted to the analysis of nonlinear behavior of amplitude modulation (AM) and frequency modulation (FM) modes of atomic force microscopy. For this, the microcantilever (which forms the basis for the operation of AFM) is modeled as a single mode approximation and the interaction between the sample and cantilever is derived from a van der Waals potential. Using perturbation methods such as averaging, and Fourier transform nonlinear equations of motion are analytically solved and the advantageous results are extracted from this nonlinear analysis. The results of the proposed techniques for AM-AFM, clearly depict the existence of two stable and one unstable (saddle) solutions for some of exciting parameters under deterministic vibration. The basin of attraction of two stable solutions is different and dependent on the exciting frequency. From this analysis the range of the frequency which will result in a unique periodic response can be obtained and used in practical experiments. Furthermore the analytical responses determined by perturbation techniques can be used to detect the parameter region where the chaotic motion is avoided. On the other hand for FM-AFM, the relation between frequency shift and the system parameters can be extracted and used for investigation of the system nonlinear behavior. The nonlinear behavior of the oscillating tip can easily explain the observed shift of frequency as a function of tip sample distance. Also in this paper we have investigated the AM-AFM system response under a random excitation. Using two different methods we have obtained the statistical properties of the tip motion. The results show that we can use the mean square value of tip motion to image the sample when the excitation signal is random

  20. Nonlinear 2D arm dynamics in response to continuous and pulse-shaped force perturbations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Happee, Riender; de Vlugt, Erwin; van Vliet, Bart

    2015-01-01

    Ample evidence exists regarding the nonlinearity of the neuromuscular system but linear models are widely applied to capture postural dynamics. This study quantifies the nonlinearity of human arm postural dynamics applying 2D continuous force perturbations (0.2-40 Hz) inducing three levels of hand displacement (5, 15, 45 mm RMS) followed by force-pulse perturbations inducing large hand displacements (up to 250 mm) in a position task (PT) and a relax task (RT) recording activity of eight shoulder and elbow muscles. The continuous perturbation data were used to analyze the 2D endpoint dynamics in the frequency domain and to identify reflexive and intrinsic parameters of a linear neuromuscular shoulder-elbow model. Subsequently, it was assessed to what extent the large displacements in response to force pulses could be predicted from the 'small amplitude' linear neuromuscular model. Continuous and pulse perturbation responses with varying amplitudes disclosed highly nonlinear effects. In PT, a larger continuous perturbation induced stiffening with a factor of 1.5 attributed to task adaptation evidenced by increased co-contraction and reflexive activity. This task adaptation was even more profound in the pulse responses where reflexes and displacements were strongly affected by the presence and amplitude of preceding continuous perturbations. In RT, a larger continuous perturbation resulted in yielding with a factor of 3.8 attributed to nonlinear mechanical properties as no significant reflexive activity was found. Pulse perturbations always resulted in yielding where a model fitted to the preceding 5-mm continuous perturbations predicted only 37% of the recorded peak displacements in RT and 79% in PT. This demonstrates that linear neuromuscular models, identified using continuous perturbations with small amplitudes, strongly underestimate displacements in pulse-shaped (e.g., impact) loading conditions. The data will be used to validate neuromuscular models including

  1. Nonlinear dynamic analysis of atomic force microscopy under deterministic and random excitation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pishkenari, Hossein Nejat [Center of Excellence in Design, Robotics and Automation (CEDRA), School of Mechanical Engineering, Sharif University of Technology, Tehran (Iran, Islamic Republic of); Behzad, Mehdi [Center of Excellence in Design, Robotics and Automation (CEDRA), School of Mechanical Engineering, Sharif University of Technology, Tehran (Iran, Islamic Republic of)], E-mail: m_behzad@sharif.edu; Meghdari, Ali [Center of Excellence in Design, Robotics and Automation (CEDRA), School of Mechanical Engineering, Sharif University of Technology, Tehran (Iran, Islamic Republic of)

    2008-08-15

    The atomic force microscope (AFM) system has evolved into a useful tool for direct measurements of intermolecular forces with atomic-resolution characterization that can be employed in a broad spectrum of applications. This paper is devoted to the analysis of nonlinear behavior of amplitude modulation (AM) and frequency modulation (FM) modes of atomic force microscopy. For this, the microcantilever (which forms the basis for the operation of AFM) is modeled as a single mode approximation and the interaction between the sample and cantilever is derived from a van der Waals potential. Using perturbation methods such as averaging, and Fourier transform nonlinear equations of motion are analytically solved and the advantageous results are extracted from this nonlinear analysis. The results of the proposed techniques for AM-AFM, clearly depict the existence of two stable and one unstable (saddle) solutions for some of exciting parameters under deterministic vibration. The basin of attraction of two stable solutions is different and dependent on the exciting frequency. From this analysis the range of the frequency which will result in a unique periodic response can be obtained and used in practical experiments. Furthermore the analytical responses determined by perturbation techniques can be used to detect the parameter region where the chaotic motion is avoided. On the other hand for FM-AFM, the relation between frequency shift and the system parameters can be extracted and used for investigation of the system nonlinear behavior. The nonlinear behavior of the oscillating tip can easily explain the observed shift of frequency as a function of tip sample distance. Also in this paper we have investigated the AM-AFM system response under a random excitation. Using two different methods we have obtained the statistical properties of the tip motion. The results show that we can use the mean square value of tip motion to image the sample when the excitation signal is random.

  2. Equivalent linear damping characterization in linear and nonlinear force-stiffness muscle models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ovesy, Marzieh; Nazari, Mohammad Ali; Mahdavian, Mohammad

    2016-02-01

    In the current research, the muscle equivalent linear damping coefficient which is introduced as the force-velocity relation in a muscle model and the corresponding time constant are investigated. In order to reach this goal, a 1D skeletal muscle model was used. Two characterizations of this model using a linear force-stiffness relationship (Hill-type model) and a nonlinear one have been implemented. The OpenSim platform was used for verification of the model. The isometric activation has been used for the simulation. The equivalent linear damping and the time constant of each model were extracted by using the results obtained from the simulation. The results provide a better insight into the characteristics of each model. It is found that the nonlinear models had a response rate closer to the reality compared to the Hill-type models.

  3. Dynamics of excited instantons in the system of forced Gursey nonlinear differential equations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Aydogmus, F., E-mail: fatma.aydogmus@gmail.com [Istanbul University, Department of Physics, Faculty of Science (Turkey)

    2015-02-15

    The Gursey model is a 4D conformally invariant pure fermionic model with a nonlinear spinor self-coupled term. Gursey proposed his model as a possible basis for a unitary description of elementary particles following the “Heisenberg dream.” In this paper, we consider the system of Gursey nonlinear differential equations (GNDEs) formed by using the Heisenberg ansatz. We use it to understand how the behavior of spinor-type Gursey instantons can be affected by excitations. For this, the regular and chaotic numerical solutions of forced GNDEs are investigated by constructing their Poincaré sections in phase space. A hierarchical cluster analysis method for investigating the forced GNDEs is also presented.

  4. A Weakly Nonlinear Model for the Damping of Resonantly Forced Density Waves in Dense Planetary Rings

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lehmann, Marius; Schmidt, Jürgen; Salo, Heikki

    2016-10-01

    In this paper, we address the stability of resonantly forced density waves in dense planetary rings. Goldreich & Tremaine have already argued that density waves might be unstable, depending on the relationship between the ring’s viscosity and the surface mass density. In the recent paper Schmidt et al., we have pointed out that when—within a fluid description of the ring dynamics—the criterion for viscous overstability is satisfied, forced spiral density waves become unstable as well. In this case, linear theory fails to describe the damping, but nonlinearity of the underlying equations guarantees a finite amplitude and eventually a damping of the wave. We apply the multiple scale formalism to derive a weakly nonlinear damping relation from a hydrodynamical model. This relation describes the resonant excitation and nonlinear viscous damping of spiral density waves in a vertically integrated fluid disk with density dependent transport coefficients. The model consistently predicts density waves to be (linearly) unstable in a ring region where the conditions for viscous overstability are met. Sufficiently far away from the Lindblad resonance, the surface mass density perturbation is predicted to saturate to a constant value due to nonlinear viscous damping. The wave’s damping lengths of the model depend on certain input parameters, such as the distance to the threshold for viscous overstability in parameter space and the ground state surface mass density.

  5. Nonlinear vibration of rectangular atomic force microscope cantilevers by considering the Hertzian contact theory

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sadeghi, A., E-mail: a_sadeghi@srbiau.ac.ir [Islamic Azad Univ., Dept. of Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering, Science and Research Branch, Tehran (Iran, Islamic Republic of); Zohoor, H. [Sharif Univ. of Technology, Center of Excellence in Design, Robotics and Automation, Tehran (Iran, Islamic Republic of); The Academy of Sciences if I.R. Iran (Iran, Islamic Republic of)

    2010-05-15

    The nonlinear flexural vibration for a rectangular atomic force microscope cantilever is investigated by using Timoshenko beam theory. In this paper, the normal and tangential tip-sample interaction forces are found from a Hertzian contact model and the effects of the contact position, normal and lateral contact stiffness, tip height, thickness of the beam, and the angle between the cantilever and the sample surface on the nonlinear frequency to linear frequency ratio are studied. The differential quadrature method is employed to solve the nonlinear differential equations of motion. The results show that softening behavior is seen for most cases and by increasing the normal contact stiffness, the frequency ratio increases for the first mode, but for the second mode, the situation is reversed. The nonlinear-frequency to linear-frequency ratio increases by increasing the Timoshenko beam parameter, but decreases by increasing the contact position for constant amplitude for the first and second modes. For the first mode, the frequency ratio decreases by increasing both of the lateral contact stiffness and the tip height, but increases by increasing the angle α between the cantilever and sample surface. (author)

  6. Analysis of adjusting effects of mounting force on frequency conversion of mounted nonlinear optics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Su, Ruifeng; Liu, Haitao; Liang, Yingchun; Lu, Lihua

    2014-01-10

    Motivated by the need to increase the second harmonic generation (SHG) efficiency of nonlinear optics with large apertures, a novel mounting configuration with active adjusting function on the SHG efficiency is proposed and mechanically and optically studied. The adjusting effects of the mounting force on the distortion and stress are analyzed by the finite element methods (FEM), as well as the contribution of the distortion and stress to the change in phase mismatch, and the SHG efficiency are theoretically stated. Further on, the SHG efficiency is calculated as a function of the mounting force. The changing trends of the distortion, stress, and the SHG efficiency with the varying mounting force are obtained, and the optimal ones are figured out. Moreover, the mechanism of the occurrence of the optimal values is studied and the adjusting strategy is put forward. Numerical results show the robust adjustment of the mounting force, as well as the effectiveness of the mounting configuration, in increasing the SHG efficiency.

  7. Communication: atomic force detection of single-molecule nonlinear optical vibrational spectroscopy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saurabh, Prasoon; Mukamel, Shaul

    2014-04-28

    Atomic Force Microscopy (AFM) allows for a highly sensitive detection of spectroscopic signals. This has been first demonstrated for NMR of a single molecule and recently extended to stimulated Raman in the optical regime. We theoretically investigate the use of optical forces to detect time and frequency domain nonlinear optical signals. We show that, with proper phase matching, the AFM-detected signals closely resemble coherent heterodyne-detected signals. Applications are made to AFM-detected and heterodyne-detected vibrational resonances in Coherent Anti-Stokes Raman Spectroscopy (χ((3))) and sum or difference frequency generation (χ((2))).

  8. Climate forcing growth rates: doubling down on our Faustian bargain

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hansen, James; Kharecha, Pushker; Sato, Makiko

    2013-03-01

    Rahmstorf et al 's (2012) conclusion that observed climate change is comparable to projections, and in some cases exceeds projections, allows further inferences if we can quantify changing climate forcings and compare those with projections. The largest climate forcing is caused by well-mixed long-lived greenhouse gases. Here we illustrate trends of these gases and their climate forcings, and we discuss implications. We focus on quantities that are accurately measured, and we include comparison with fixed scenarios, which helps reduce common misimpressions about how climate forcings are changing. Annual fossil fuel CO2 emissions have shot up in the past decade at about 3% yr-1, double the rate of the prior three decades (figure 1). The growth rate falls above the range of the IPCC (2001) 'Marker' scenarios, although emissions are still within the entire range considered by the IPCC SRES (2000). The surge in emissions is due to increased coal use (blue curve in figure 1), which now accounts for more than 40% of fossil fuel CO2 emissions. Figure 1. Figure 1. CO2 annual emissions from fossil fuel use and cement manufacture, an update of figure 16 of Hansen (2003) using data of British Petroleum (BP 2012) concatenated with data of Boden et al (2012). The resulting annual increase of atmospheric CO2 (12-month running mean) has grown from less than 1 ppm yr-1 in the early 1960s to an average ~2 ppm yr-1 in the past decade (figure 2). Although CO2 measurements were not made at sufficient locations prior to the early 1980s to calculate the global mean change, the close match of global and Mauna Loa data for later years suggests that Mauna Loa data provide a good approximation of global change (figure 2), thus allowing a useful estimate of annual global change beginning with the initiation of Mauna Loa measurements in 1958 by Keeling et al (1973). Figure 2. Figure 2. Annual increase of CO2 based on data from the NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory (ESRL 2012). CO2 change

  9. Satellite methods underestimate indirect climate forcing by aerosols

    Science.gov (United States)

    Penner, Joyce E.; Xu, Li; Wang, Minghuai

    2011-01-01

    Satellite-based estimates of the aerosol indirect effect (AIE) are consistently smaller than the estimates from global aerosol models, and, partly as a result of these differences, the assessment of this climate forcing includes large uncertainties. Satellite estimates typically use the present-day (PD) relationship between observed cloud drop number concentrations (Nc) and aerosol optical depths (AODs) to determine the preindustrial (PI) values of Nc. These values are then used to determine the PD and PI cloud albedos and, thus, the effect of anthropogenic aerosols on top of the atmosphere radiative fluxes. Here, we use a model with realistic aerosol and cloud processes to show that empirical relationships for ln(Nc) versus ln(AOD) derived from PD results do not represent the atmospheric perturbation caused by the addition of anthropogenic aerosols to the preindustrial atmosphere. As a result, the model estimates based on satellite methods of the AIE are between a factor of 3 to more than a factor of 6 smaller than model estimates based on actual PD and PI values for Nc. Using ln(Nc) versus ln(AI) (Aerosol Index, or the optical depth times angstrom exponent) to estimate preindustrial values for Nc provides estimates for Nc and forcing that are closer to the values predicted by the model. Nevertheless, the AIE using ln(Nc) versus ln(AI) may be substantially incorrect on a regional basis and may underestimate or overestimate the global average forcing by 25 to 35%. PMID:21808047

  10. Non-linear contributions to interactions in climate networks: sources, relevance, nonstationarity

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Hlinka, Jaroslav; Hartman, David; Vejmelka, Martin; Paluš, Milan

    2012-01-01

    Roč. 14, - (2012), s. 14274 ISSN 1607-7962. [European Geosciences Union General Assembly 2012. 22.04.2012-27.04.2012, Vienna] R&D Projects: GA ČR GCP103/11/J068 Institutional support: RVO:67985807 Keywords : correlation * mutual information * test of nonlinearity * surrogate data * complex networks * climate network Subject RIV: BB - Applied Statistics, Operational Research

  11. Non-Linear Dependence and Teleconnections in Climate Data: Sources, Relevance, Nonstationarity

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Hlinka, Jaroslav; Hartman, David; Vejmelka, Martin; Novotná, Dagmar; Paluš, Milan

    2014-01-01

    Roč. 42, č. 7-8 (2014), s. 1873-1886 ISSN 0930-7575 R&D Projects: GA ČR GCP103/11/J068 Institutional support: RVO:67985807 ; RVO:68378289 Keywords : climate networks * nonlinearity * mutual information * teleconnections * seasonality in variance * nonstationarity Subject RIV: BB - Applied Statistics, Operational Research Impact factor: 4.673, year: 2014

  12. The radiative forcing potential of different climate geoengineering options

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. M. Lenton

    2009-08-01

    Full Text Available Climate geoengineering proposals seek to rectify the Earth's current and potential future radiative imbalance, either by reducing the absorption of incoming solar (shortwave radiation, or by removing CO2 from the atmosphere and transferring it to long-lived reservoirs, thus increasing outgoing longwave radiation. A fundamental criterion for evaluating geoengineering options is their climate cooling effectiveness, which we quantify here in terms of radiative forcing potential. We use a simple analytical approach, based on energy balance considerations and pulse response functions for the decay of CO2 perturbations. This aids transparency compared to calculations with complex numerical models, but is not intended to be definitive. It allows us to compare the relative effectiveness of a range of proposals. We consider geoengineering options as additional to large reductions in CO2 emissions. By 2050, some land carbon cycle geoengineering options could be of comparable magnitude to mitigation "wedges", but only stratospheric aerosol injections, albedo enhancement of marine stratocumulus clouds, or sunshades in space have the potential to cool the climate back toward its pre-industrial state. Strong mitigation, combined with global-scale air capture and storage, afforestation, and bio-char production, i.e. enhanced CO2 sinks, might be able to bring CO2 back to its pre-industrial level by 2100, thus removing the need for other geoengineering. Alternatively, strong mitigation stabilising CO2 at 500 ppm, combined with geoengineered increases in the albedo of marine stratiform clouds, grasslands, croplands and human settlements might achieve a patchy cancellation of radiative forcing. Ocean fertilisation options are only worthwhile if sustained on a millennial timescale and phosphorus addition may have greater long-term potential than iron or nitrogen fertilisation. Enhancing ocean

  13. Response statistics of rotating shaft with non-linear elastic restoring forces by path integration

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gaidai, Oleg; Naess, Arvid; Dimentberg, Michael

    2017-07-01

    Extreme statistics of random vibrations is studied for a Jeffcott rotor under uniaxial white noise excitation. Restoring force is modelled as elastic non-linear; comparison is done with linearized restoring force to see the force non-linearity effect on the response statistics. While for the linear model analytical solutions and stability conditions are available, it is not generally the case for non-linear system except for some special cases. The statistics of non-linear case is studied by applying path integration (PI) method, which is based on the Markov property of the coupled dynamic system. The Jeffcott rotor response statistics can be obtained by solving the Fokker-Planck (FP) equation of the 4D dynamic system. An efficient implementation of PI algorithm is applied, namely fast Fourier transform (FFT) is used to simulate dynamic system additive noise. The latter allows significantly reduce computational time, compared to the classical PI. Excitation is modelled as Gaussian white noise, however any kind distributed white noise can be implemented with the same PI technique. Also multidirectional Markov noise can be modelled with PI in the same way as unidirectional. PI is accelerated by using Monte Carlo (MC) estimated joint probability density function (PDF) as initial input. Symmetry of dynamic system was utilized to afford higher mesh resolution. Both internal (rotating) and external damping are included in mechanical model of the rotor. The main advantage of using PI rather than MC is that PI offers high accuracy in the probability distribution tail. The latter is of critical importance for e.g. extreme value statistics, system reliability, and first passage probability.

  14. A unified nonlinear stochastic time series analysis for climate science.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moon, Woosok; Wettlaufer, John S

    2017-03-13

    Earth's orbit and axial tilt imprint a strong seasonal cycle on climatological data. Climate variability is typically viewed in terms of fluctuations in the seasonal cycle induced by higher frequency processes. We can interpret this as a competition between the orbitally enforced monthly stability and the fluctuations/noise induced by weather. Here we introduce a new time-series method that determines these contributions from monthly-averaged data. We find that the spatio-temporal distribution of the monthly stability and the magnitude of the noise reveal key fingerprints of several important climate phenomena, including the evolution of the Arctic sea ice cover, the El Nio Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the Atlantic Nio and the Indian Dipole Mode. In analogy with the classical destabilising influence of the ice-albedo feedback on summertime sea ice, we find that during some time interval of the season a destabilising process operates in all of these climate phenomena. The interaction between the destabilisation and the accumulation of noise, which we term the memory effect, underlies phase locking to the seasonal cycle and the statistical nature of seasonal predictability.

  15. Nonlinear Response of the Stratosphere and the North Atlantic-European Climate to Global Warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Manzini, E.; Karpechko, A. Yu.; Kornblueh, L.

    2018-05-01

    The response of the northern winter atmospheric circulation for two consecutive global warming periods of 2 K is examined in a grand ensemble (68 members) of idealized CO2 increase experiments performed with the same climate model. The comparison of the atmospheric responses for the two periods shows remarkable differences, indicating the nonlinearity of the response. The nonlinear signature of the atmospheric and surface responses is reminiscent of the positive phase of the annular mode of variability. The stratospheric vortex response shifts from an easterly wind change for the first 2 K to a westerly wind change for the second 2 K. The North Atlantic storm track shifts poleward only in the second period. A weaker November Arctic amplification during the second period suggests that differences in Arctic sea ice changes can act to trigger the atmospheric nonlinear response. Stratosphere-troposphere coupling thereafter can provide for the persistence of this nonlinearity throughout the winter.

  16. Parabolized Stability Equations analysis of nonlinear interactions with forced eigenmodes to control subsonic jet instabilities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Itasse, Maxime; Brazier, Jean-Philippe; Léon, Olivier; Casalis, Grégoire

    2015-01-01

    Nonlinear evolution of disturbances in an axisymmetric, high subsonic, high Reynolds number hot jet with forced eigenmodes is studied using the Parabolized Stability Equations (PSE) approach to understand how modes interact with one another. Both frequency and azimuthal harmonic interactions are analyzed by setting up one or two modes at higher initial amplitudes and various phases. While single mode excitation leads to harmonic growth and jet noise amplification, controlling the evolution of a specific mode has been made possible by forcing two modes (m 1 , n 1 ), (m 2 , n 2 ), such that the difference in azimuth and in frequency matches the desired “target” mode (m 1 − m 2 , n 1 − n 2 ). A careful setup of the initial amplitudes and phases of the forced modes, defined as the “killer” modes, has allowed the minimizing of the initially dominant instability in the near pressure field, as well as its estimated radiated noise with a 15 dB loss. Although an increase of the overall sound pressure has been found in the range of azimuth and frequency analyzed, the present paper reveals the possibility to make the initially dominant instability ineffective acoustically using nonlinear interactions with forced eigenmodes

  17. Nonlinear force propagation, anisotropic stiffening and non-affine relaxation in a model cytoskeleton

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mizuno, Daisuke; Head, David; Ikebe, Emi; Nakamasu, Akiko; Kinoshita, Suguru; Peijuan, Zhang; Ando, Shoji

    2013-03-01

    Forces are generated heterogeneously in living cells and transmitted through cytoskeletal networks that respond highly non-linearly. Here, we carry out high-bandwidth passive microrheology on vimentin networks reconstituted in vitro, and observe the nonlinear mechanical response due to forces propagating from a local source applied by an optical tweezer. Since the applied force is constant, the gel becomes equilibrated and the fluctuation-dissipation theorem can be employed to deduce the viscoelasticity of the local environment from the thermal fluctuations of colloidal probes. Our experiments unequivocally demonstrate the anisotropic stiffening of the cytoskeletal network behind the applied force, with greater stiffening in the parallel direction. Quantitative agreement with an affine continuum model is obtained, but only for the response at certain frequency ~ 10-1000 Hz which separates the high-frequency power law and low-frequency elastic behavior of the network. We argue that the failure of the model at lower frequencies is due to the presence of non-affinity, and observe that zero-frequency changes in particle separation can be fitted when an independently-measured, empirical nonaffinity factor is applied.

  18. Parabolized Stability Equations analysis of nonlinear interactions with forced eigenmodes to control subsonic jet instabilities

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Itasse, Maxime, E-mail: Maxime.Itasse@onera.fr; Brazier, Jean-Philippe, E-mail: Jean-Philippe.Brazier@onera.fr; Léon, Olivier, E-mail: Olivier.Leon@onera.fr; Casalis, Grégoire, E-mail: Gregoire.Casalis@onera.fr [Onera - The French Aerospace Lab, F-31055 Toulouse (France)

    2015-08-15

    Nonlinear evolution of disturbances in an axisymmetric, high subsonic, high Reynolds number hot jet with forced eigenmodes is studied using the Parabolized Stability Equations (PSE) approach to understand how modes interact with one another. Both frequency and azimuthal harmonic interactions are analyzed by setting up one or two modes at higher initial amplitudes and various phases. While single mode excitation leads to harmonic growth and jet noise amplification, controlling the evolution of a specific mode has been made possible by forcing two modes (m{sub 1}, n{sub 1}), (m{sub 2}, n{sub 2}), such that the difference in azimuth and in frequency matches the desired “target” mode (m{sub 1} − m{sub 2}, n{sub 1} − n{sub 2}). A careful setup of the initial amplitudes and phases of the forced modes, defined as the “killer” modes, has allowed the minimizing of the initially dominant instability in the near pressure field, as well as its estimated radiated noise with a 15 dB loss. Although an increase of the overall sound pressure has been found in the range of azimuth and frequency analyzed, the present paper reveals the possibility to make the initially dominant instability ineffective acoustically using nonlinear interactions with forced eigenmodes.

  19. Multi-scale analysis of teleconnection indices: climate noise and nonlinear trend analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. Franzke

    2009-02-01

    Full Text Available The multi-scale nature and climate noise properties of teleconnection indices are examined by using the Empirical Mode Decomposition (EMD procedure. The EMD procedure allows for the analysis of non-stationary time series to extract physically meaningful intrinsic mode functions (IMF and nonlinear trends. The climatologically relevant monthly mean teleconnection indices of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO, the North Pacific index (NP and the Southern Annular Mode (SAM are analyzed.

    The significance of IMFs and trends are tested against the null hypothesis of climate noise. The analysis of surrogate monthly mean time series from a red noise process shows that the EMD procedure is effectively a dyadic filter bank and the IMFs (except the first IMF are nearly Gaussian distributed. The distribution of the variance contained in IMFs of an ensemble of AR(1 simulations is nearly χ2 distributed. To test the statistical significance of the IMFs of the teleconnection indices and their nonlinear trends we utilize an ensemble of corresponding monthly averaged AR(1 processes, which we refer to as climate noise. Our results indicate that most of the interannual and decadal variability of the analysed teleconnection indices cannot be distinguished from climate noise. The NP and SAM indices have significant nonlinear trends, while the NAO has no significant trend when tested against a climate noise hypothesis.

  20. Climate change forces new ecological states in tropical Andean lakes.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Neal Michelutti

    Full Text Available Air temperatures in the tropical Andes have risen at an accelerated rate relative to the global average over recent decades. However, the effects of climate change on Andean lakes, which are vital to sustaining regional biodiversity and serve as an important water resource to local populations, remain largely unknown. Here, we show that recent climate changes have forced alpine lakes of the equatorial Andes towards new ecological and physical states, in close synchrony to the rapid shrinkage of glaciers regionally. Using dated sediment cores from three lakes in the southern Sierra of Ecuador, we record abrupt increases in the planktonic thalassiosiroid diatom Discostella stelligera from trace abundances to dominance within the phytoplankton. This unprecedented shift occurs against the backdrop of rising temperatures, changing atmospheric pressure fields, and declining wind speeds. Ecological restructuring in these lakes is linked to warming and/or enhanced water column stratification. In contrast to seasonally ice-covered Arctic and temperate alpine counterparts, aquatic production has not increased universally with warming, and has even declined in some lakes, possibly because enhanced thermal stability impedes the re-circulation of hypolimnetic nutrients to surface waters. Our results demonstrate that these lakes have already passed important ecological thresholds, with potentially far-reaching consequences for Andean water resources.

  1. Experimental evidence of reorganizing landscape under changing climatic forcing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Singh, A.; Tejedor, A.; Zaliapin, I. V.; Reinhardt, L.; Foufoula-Georgiou, E.

    2015-12-01

    Quantification of the dynamics of landscape reorganization under changing climatic forcing is important to understand geomorphic transport laws under transient conditions, assess response of landscapes to external perturbations for future predictive modeling, and for interpreting past climate from stratigraphic record. For such an analysis, however, real landscape observations are limited. To this end, a series of controlled laboratory experiments on evolving landscape were conducted at the St. Anthony Falls laboratory at the University of Minnesota. High resolution elevation data at a temporal resolution of 5 mins and spatial resolution of 0.5 mm were collected as the landscape approached steady state (constant uplift and precipitation rate) and in the transient state (under the same uplift and 5 times precipitation rate). Our results reveal rapid topographic re-organization under a five-fold increase in precipitation with the fluvial regime encroaching into the previously debris dominated regime, widening and aggradation of channels and valleys, and accelerated erosion happening at hillslope scales. To better understand the initiation of the observed reorganization, we perform a connectivity and clustering analysis of the erosional and depositional events, showing strikingly different spatial patterns on landscape evolution under steady-state (SS) and transient-state (TS), even when the time under SS is renormalized to match the total volume of eroded and deposited sediment in TS. Our results suggest a regime shift in the behavior of transport processes on the landscape at the intermediate scales i.e., from supply-limited to transport-limited.

  2. Novel nonlinear knowledge-based mean force potentials based on machine learning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dong, Qiwen; Zhou, Shuigeng

    2011-01-01

    The prediction of 3D structures of proteins from amino acid sequences is one of the most challenging problems in molecular biology. An essential task for solving this problem with coarse-grained models is to deduce effective interaction potentials. The development and evaluation of new energy functions is critical to accurately modeling the properties of biological macromolecules. Knowledge-based mean force potentials are derived from statistical analysis of proteins of known structures. Current knowledge-based potentials are almost in the form of weighted linear sum of interaction pairs. In this study, a class of novel nonlinear knowledge-based mean force potentials is presented. The potential parameters are obtained by nonlinear classifiers, instead of relative frequencies of interaction pairs against a reference state or linear classifiers. The support vector machine is used to derive the potential parameters on data sets that contain both native structures and decoy structures. Five knowledge-based mean force Boltzmann-based or linear potentials are introduced and their corresponding nonlinear potentials are implemented. They are the DIH potential (single-body residue-level Boltzmann-based potential), the DFIRE-SCM potential (two-body residue-level Boltzmann-based potential), the FS potential (two-body atom-level Boltzmann-based potential), the HR potential (two-body residue-level linear potential), and the T32S3 potential (two-body atom-level linear potential). Experiments are performed on well-established decoy sets, including the LKF data set, the CASP7 data set, and the Decoys “R”Us data set. The evaluation metrics include the energy Z score and the ability of each potential to discriminate native structures from a set of decoy structures. Experimental results show that all nonlinear potentials significantly outperform the corresponding Boltzmann-based or linear potentials, and the proposed discriminative framework is effective in developing knowledge

  3. Forced phase-locked response of a nonlinear system with time delay after Hopf bifurcation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ji, J.C.; Hansen, Colin H.

    2005-01-01

    The trivial equilibrium of a nonlinear autonomous system with time delay may become unstable via a Hopf bifurcation of multiplicity two, as the time delay reaches a critical value. This loss of stability of the equilibrium is associated with two coincident pairs of complex conjugate eigenvalues crossing the imaginary axis. The resultant dynamic behaviour of the corresponding nonlinear non-autonomous system in the neighbourhood of the Hopf bifurcation is investigated based on the reduction of the infinite-dimensional problem to a four-dimensional centre manifold. As a result of the interaction between the Hopf bifurcating periodic solutions and the external periodic excitation, a primary resonance can occur in the forced response of the system when the forcing frequency is close to the Hopf bifurcating periodic frequency. The method of multiple scales is used to obtain four first-order ordinary differential equations that determine the amplitudes and phases of the phase-locked periodic solutions. The first-order approximations of the periodic solutions are found to be in excellent agreement with those obtained by direct numerical integration of the delay-differential equation. It is also found that the steady state solutions of the nonlinear non-autonomous system may lose their stability via either a pitchfork or Hopf bifurcation. It is shown that the primary resonance response may exhibit symmetric and asymmetric phase-locked periodic motions, quasi-periodic motions, chaotic motions, and coexistence of two stable motions

  4. Non-Kyoto radiative forcing in long-run greenhouse gas emissions and climate change scenarios

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rose, S.K.; Kriegler, E.; Bibas, R.; Calvin, K.; Popp, A.; van Vuuren, D.P.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/11522016X; Weyant, J.

    2014-01-01

    Climate policies must consider radiative forcing from Kyoto greenhouse gases, as well as other forcing constituents, such as aerosols and tropospheric ozone that result from air pollutants. Non-Kyoto forcing constituents contribute negative, as well as positive forcing, and overall increases in

  5. Modeling and analysis of Galfenol cantilever vibration energy harvester with nonlinear magnetic force

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cao, Shuying; Sun, Shuaishuai; Zheng, Jiaju; Wang, Bowen; Wan, Lili; Pan, Ruzheng; Zhao, Ran; Zhang, Changgeng

    2018-05-01

    Galfenol traditional cantilever energy harvesters (TCEHs) have bigger electrical output only at resonance and exhibit nonlinear mechanical-magnetic-electric coupled (NMMEC) behaviors. To increase low-frequency broadband performances of a TCEH, an improved CEH (ICEH) with magnetic repulsive force is studied. Based on the magnetic dipole model, the nonlinear model of material, the Faraday law and the dynamic principle, a lumped parameter NMMEC model of the devices is established. Comparisons between the calculated and measured results show that the proposed model can provide reasonable data trends of TCEH under acceleration, bias field and different loads. Simulated results show that ICEH exhibits low-frequency resonant, hard spring and bistable behaviors, thus can harvest more low-frequency broadband vibration energy than TCEH, and can elicit snap-through and generate higher voltage even under weak noise. The proposed structure and model are useful for improving performances of the devices.

  6. Stability Control of Force-Reflected Nonlinear Multilateral Teleoperation System under Time-Varying Delays

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Da Sun

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available A novel control algorithm based on the modified wave-variable controllers is proposed to achieve accurate position synchronization and reasonable force tracking of the nonlinear single-master-multiple-slave teleoperation system and simultaneously guarantee overall system’s stability in the presence of large time-varying delays. The system stability in different scenarios of human and environment situations has been analyzed. The proposed method is validated through experimental work based on the 3-DOF trilateral teleoperation system consisting of three different manipulators. The experimental results clearly demonstrate the feasibility of the proposed algorithm to achieve high transparency and robust stability in nonlinear single-master-multiple-slave teleoperation system in the presence of time-varying delays.

  7. Multistable Microactuators Functioning on the Basis of Electromagnetic Lorentz Force: Nonlinear Structural and Electrothermal Analyses

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Han, Jeong Sam

    2010-01-01

    In this paper, the design and nonlinear simulation of a multistable electromagnetic microactuator, which provides four stable equilibrium positions within its operating range, have been discussed. Quadstable actuator motion has been made possible by using both X- and Y-directional bistable structures with snapping curved beams. Two pairs of the curved beams are attached to an inner frame in both X- and Y-directions to realize independent bistable behavior in each direction. For the actuation of the actuator at the micrometer scale, an electromagnetic actuation method in which Lorentz force is taken into consideration was used. By using this method, micrometer-stroke quadstability in a plane parallel to a substrate was possible. The feasibility of designing an actuator that can realize quadstable motion by using the electromagnetic actuation method has been thoroughly clarified by performing nonlinear static and dynamic analyses and electrothermal coupled-field analysis of the multistable microactuator

  8. Nonlinear Dynamical Analysis for the Cable Excited with Parametric and Forced Excitation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. Z. Qian

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Considering the deck vibration effect on the cable in cable-stayed bridge, using nonlinear structure dynamics theory, the nonlinear dynamical equation for the stayed cable excited with deck vibration is proposed. Research shows that the vertical vibration of the deck has a combined parametric and forced excitation effect on the cable when the angle of the cable is taken into consideration. Using multiscale method, the 1/2 principle parametric resonance is studied and the bifurcation equation is obtained. Despite the parameters analysis, the bifurcation characters of the dynamical system are studied. At last, by means of numerical method and software MATHMATIC, the effect rules of system parameters to the dynamical behavior of the system are studied, and some useful conclusions are obtained.

  9. Orbital forcing of Arctic climate: mechanisms of climate response and implications for continental glaciation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jackson, C S [Program in Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, Princeton University, NJ 08542, Princeton (United States); Institute for Geophysics, The John A. and Katherine G. Jackson School of Geosciences, The University of Texas at Austin, 4412 Spicewood Springs Rd., Bldg 600, TX 78759, Austin (United States); Broccoli, A J [NOAA/Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, NJ 08542, Princeton (United States); Department of Environmental Sciences, Rutgers University, NJ 08903, New Brunswick (United States)

    2003-12-01

    Progress in understanding how terrestrial ice volume is linked to Earth's orbital configuration has been impeded by the cost of simulating climate system processes relevant to glaciation over orbital time scales (10{sup 3}-10{sup 5} years). A compromise is usually made to represent the climate system by models that are averaged over one or more spatial dimensions or by three-dimensional models that are limited to simulating particular ''snapshots'' in time. We take advantage of the short equilibration time ({proportional_to}10 years) of a climate model consisting of a three-dimensional atmosphere coupled to a simple slab ocean to derive the equilibrium climate response to accelerated variations in Earth's orbital configuration over the past 165,000 years. Prominent decreases in ice melt and increases in snowfall are simulated during three time intervals near 26, 73, and 117 thousand years ago (ka) when aphelion was in late spring and obliquity was low. There were also significant decreases in ice melt and increases in snowfall near 97 and 142 ka when eccentricity was relatively large, aphelion was in late spring, and obliquity was high or near its long term mean. These ''glaciation-friendly'' time intervals correspond to prominent and secondary phases of terrestrial ice growth seen within the marine {delta}{sup 18}O record. Both dynamical and thermal effects contribute to the increases in snowfall during these periods, through increases in storm activity and the fraction of precipitation falling as snow. The majority of the mid- to high latitude response to orbital forcing is organized by the properties of sea ice, through its influence on radiative feedbacks that nearly double the size of the orbital forcing as well as its influence on the seasonal evolution of the latitudinal temperature gradient. (orig.)

  10. Analytical modeling of soliton interactions in a nonlocal nonlinear medium analogous to gravitational force

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zeng, Shihao; Chen, Manna; Zhang, Ting; Hu, Wei; Guo, Qi; Lu, Daquan

    2018-01-01

    We illuminate an analytical model of soliton interactions in lead glass by analogizing to a gravitational force system. The orbits of spiraling solitons under a long-range interaction are given explicitly and demonstrated to follow Newton's second law of motion and the Binet equation by numerical simulations. The condition for circular orbits is obtained and the oscillating orbits are proved not to be closed. We prove the analogy between the nonlocal nonlinear optical system and gravitational system and specify the quantitative relation of the quantity between the two models.

  11. Understanding climate impacts on vegetation using a spatiotemporal non-linear Granger causality framework

    Science.gov (United States)

    Papagiannopoulou, Christina; Decubber, Stijn; Miralles, Diego; Demuzere, Matthias; Dorigo, Wouter; Verhoest, Niko; Waegeman, Willem

    2017-04-01

    Satellite data provide an abundance of information about crucial climatic and environmental variables. These data - consisting of global records, spanning up to 35 years and having the form of multivariate time series with different spatial and temporal resolutions - enable the study of key climate-vegetation interactions. Although methods which are based on correlations and linear models are typically used for this purpose, their assumptions for linearity about the climate-vegetation relationships are too simplistic. Therefore, we adopt a recently proposed non-linear Granger causality analysis [1], in which we incorporate spatial information, concatenating data from neighboring pixels and training a joint model on the combined data. Experimental results based on global data sets show that considering non-linear relationships leads to a higher explained variance of past vegetation dynamics, compared to simple linear models. Our approach consists of several steps. First, we compile an extensive database [1], which includes multiple data sets for land surface temperature, near-surface air temperature, surface radiation, precipitation, snow water equivalents and surface soil moisture. Based on this database, high-level features are constructed and considered as predictors in our machine-learning framework. These high-level features include (de-trended) seasonal anomalies, lagged variables, past cumulative variables, and extreme indices, all calculated based on the raw climatic data. Second, we apply a spatiotemporal non-linear Granger causality framework - in which the linear predictive model is substituted for a non-linear machine learning algorithm - in order to assess which of these predictor variables Granger-cause vegetation dynamics at each 1° pixel. We use the de-trended anomalies of Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) to characterize vegetation, being the target variable of our framework. Experimental results indicate that climate strongly (Granger

  12. Nonlinear Waves In A Stenosed Elastic Tube Filled With Viscous Fluid: Forced Perturbed Korteweg-De Vries Equation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gaik*, Tay Kim; Demiray, Hilmi; Tiong, Ong Chee

    In the present work, treating the artery as a prestressed thin-walled and long circularly cylindrical elastic tube with a mild symmetrical stenosis and the blood as an incompressible Newtonian fluid, we have studied the pro pagation of weakly nonlinear waves in such a composite medium, in the long wave approximation, by use of the reductive perturbation method. By intro ducing a set of stretched coordinates suitable for the boundary value type of problems and expanding the field variables into asymptotic series of the small-ness parameter of nonlinearity and dispersion, we obtained a set of nonlinear differential equations governing the terms at various order. By solving these nonlinear differential equations, we obtained the forced perturbed Korteweg-de Vries equation with variable coefficient as the nonlinear evolution equation. By use of the coordinate transformation, it is shown that this type of nonlinear evolution equation admits a progressive wave solution with variable wave speed.

  13. Effects from fully nonlinear irregular wave forcing on the fatigue life of an offshore wind turbine and its monopile foundation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schløer, Signe; Bredmose, Henrik; Bingham, Harry B.

    2013-01-01

    The effect from fully nonlinear irregular wave forcing on the fatigue life of the foundation and tower of an offshore wind turbine is investigated through aeroelastic calculations. Five representative sea states with increasing significant wave height are considered in a water depth of 40 m....... The waves are both linear and fully nonlinear irregular 2D waves. The wind turbine is the NREL 5-MW reference wind turbine. Fatigue analysis is performed in relation to analysis of the sectional forces in the tower and monopile. Impulsive excitation of the sectional force at the bottom of the tower is seen...

  14. Retrofitting Forced Air Combi Systems: A Cold Climate Field Assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Schoenbauer, Ben [NorthernSTAR, St. Paul, MN (United States); Bohac, Dave [NorthernSTAR, St. Paul, MN (United States); McAlpine, Jack [NorthernSTAR, St. Paul, MN (United States); Hewett, Martha [NorthernSTAR, St. Paul, MN (United States)

    2017-06-01

    This project analyzed combined condensing water heaters or boilers and hydronic air coils to provide high efficiency domestic hot water (DHW) and forced air space heating. Called "combi" systems, they provided similar space and water heating performance less expensively than installing two condensing appliances. The system's installed costs were cheaper than installing a condensing furnace and either a condensing tankless or condensing storage water heater. However, combi costs must mature and be reduced before they are competitive with a condensing furnace and power vented water heater (energy factor of 0.60). Better insulation and tighter envelopes are reducing space heating loads for new and existing homes. For many homes, decreased space heating loads make it possible for both space and domestic water heating loads to be provided with a single heating plant. These systems can also eliminate safety issues associated with natural draft appliances through the use of one common sealed combustion vent. The combined space and water heating approach was not a new idea. Past systems have used non-condensing heating plants, which limited their usefulness in climates with high heating loads. Previous laboratory work (Schoenbauer et al. 2012a) showed that proper installation was necessary to achieve condensing with high efficiency appliances. Careful consideration was paid to proper system sizing and minimizing the water temperature returning from the air handling unit to facilitate condensing operation.

  15. Retrofitting Forced Air Combi Systems: A Cold Climate Field Assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Schoenbauer, Ben [Univ. of Minnesota, St. Paul, MN (United States). NorthernSTAR Building America Partnership; Bohac, Dave [Univ. of Minnesota, St. Paul, MN (United States). NorthernSTAR Building America Partnership; McAlpine, Jake [Univ. of Minnesota, St. Paul, MN (United States). NorthernSTAR Building America Partnership; Hewett, Martha [Univ. of Minnesota, St. Paul, MN (United States). NorthernSTAR Building America Partnership

    2017-06-23

    This project analyzed combined condensing water heaters or boilers and hydronic air coils to provide high efficiency domestic hot water (DHW) and forced air space heating. Called 'combi' systems, they provided similar space and water heating performance less expensively than installing two condensing appliances. The system's installed costs were cheaper than installing a condensing furnace and either a condensing tankless or condensing storage water heater. However, combi costs must mature and be reduced before they are competitive with a condensing furnace and power vented water heater (energy factor of 0.60). Better insulation and tighter envelopes are reducing space heating loads for new and existing homes. For many homes, decreased space heating loads make it possible for both space and domestic water heating loads to be provided with a single heating plant. These systems can also eliminate safety issues associated with natural draft appliances through the use of one common sealed combustion vent. The combined space and water heating approach was not a new idea. Past systems have used non-condensing heating plants, which limited their usefulness in climates with high heating loads. Previous laboratory work (Schoenbauer et al. 2012a) showed that proper installation was necessary to achieve condensing with high efficiency appliances. Careful consideration was paid to proper system sizing and minimizing the water temperature returning from the air handling unit to facilitate condensing operation.

  16. Long-term climate monitoring by the global climate observing system: report of breakout group 1 - climate forcings and feedbacks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Miller, C.; Bretherton, F.

    1995-01-01

    The assignment for Breakout Group A was to re-visit and expand upon the plenary session discussion on climate forcings and feedbacks and to develop a set of recommendations for each of the science disciplines or activities covered within this breakout category. Working guidelines for the group included identifying: (1) what has to be done; (2) why it has to be done, i.e. who is the customer? (3) the process for remedying deficiencies and, specifically, how to leverage the activities at operational centers; and (4) priorities (recognizing that it is premature to distinguish between major systems). The science ares addressed included: greenhouse gases (GHGs); radiation budget; water vapor; aerosols; clouds; precipitation; tropospheric ozone; and solar radiation. The role of climate satellites was also noted

  17. Numerical simulation of nonlinear wave force on a quasi-ellipse caisson

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Yongxue; Ren, Xiaozhong; Wang, Guoyu

    2011-09-01

    A three dimensional numerical model of nonlinear wave action on a quasi-ellipse caisson in a time domain was developed in this paper. Navier-Stokes equations were solved by the finite difference method, and the volume of fluid (VOF) method was employed to trace the free surface. The partial cell method was used to deal with the irregular boundary typical of this type of problem during first-time wave interaction with the structure, and a satisfactory result was obtained. The numerical model was verified and used to investigate the effects of the relative wave height H/d, relative caisson width kD, and relative length-width ratio B/D on the wave forces of the quasi-ellipse caisson. It was shown that the relative wave height H/d has a significant effect on the wave forces of the caisson. Compared with the non-dimensional inline wave force, the relative length-width ratio B/D was shown to have significant influence on the non-dimensional transverse wave force.

  18. Climate shocks and rural-urban migration in Mexico: Exploring nonlinearities and thresholds

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nawrotzki, Raphael J.; DeWaard, Jack; Bakhtsiyarava, Maryia; Ha, Jasmine Trang

    2016-01-01

    Adverse climatic conditions may differentially drive human migration patterns between rural and urban areas, with implications for changes in population composition and density, access to infrastructure and resources, and the delivery of essential goods and services. However, there is little empirical evidence to support this notion. In this study, we investigate the relationship between climate shocks and migration between rural and urban areas within Mexico. We combine individual records from the 2000 and 2010 Mexican censuses (n=683,518) with high-resolution climate data from Terra Populus that are linked to census data at the municipality level (n=2,321). We measure climate shocks as monthly deviation from a 30-year (1961-1990) long-term climate normal period, and uncover important nonlinearities using quadratic and cubic specifications. Satellite-based measures of urban extents allow us to classify migrant-sending and migrant-receiving municipalities as rural or urban to examine four internal migration patterns: rural-urban, rural-rural, urban-urban, and urban-rural. Among our key findings, results from multilevel models reveal that each additional drought month increases the odds of rural-urban migration by 3.6%. In contrast, the relationship between heat months and rural-urban migration is nonlinear. After a threshold of ~34 heat months is surpassed, the relationship between heat months and rural-urban migration becomes positive and progressively increases in strength. Policy and programmatic interventions may therefore reduce climate induced rural-urban migration in Mexico through rural climate change adaptation initiatives, while also assisting rural migrants in finding employment and housing in urban areas to offset population impacts. PMID:28435176

  19. Robust approach to maximize the range and accuracy of force application in atomic force microscopes with nonlinear position-sensitive detectors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Silva, E C C M; Vliet, K J van

    2006-01-01

    The atomic force microscope is used increasingly to investigate the mechanical properties of materials via sample displacement under an applied force. However, both the extent of forces attainable and the accuracy of those forces measurements are significantly limited by the optical lever configuration that is commonly used to infer nanoscale deflection of the cantilever. We present a robust and general approach to characterize and compensate for the nonlinearity of the position-sensitive optical device via data processing, requiring no modification of existing instrumentation. We demonstrate that application of this approach reduced the maximum systematic error on the gradient of a force-displacement response from 50% to 5%, and doubled the calibrated force application range. Finally, we outline an experimental protocol that optimizes the use of the quasi-linear range of the most commonly available optical feedback configurations and also accounts for the residual systematic error, allowing the user to benefit from the full detection range of these indirect force sensors

  20. Physical mechanisms of megahertz vibrations and nonlinear detection in ultrasonic force and related microscopies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bosse, J. L.; Huey, B. D. [Department of Materials Science and Engineering, 97 North Eagleville Road, Unit 3136, Storrs, Connecticut 06269-3136 (United States); Tovee, P. D.; Kolosov, O. V., E-mail: o.kolosov@lancaster.ac.uk [Department of Physics, Lancaster University, Lancaster LA1 4YB (United Kingdom)

    2014-04-14

    Use of high frequency (HF) vibrations at MHz frequencies in Atomic Force Microscopy (AFM) advanced nanoscale property mapping to video rates, allowed use of cantilever dynamics for mapping nanomechanical properties of stiff materials, sensing μs time scale phenomena in nanostructures, and enabled detection of subsurface features with nanoscale resolution. All of these methods critically depend on the generally poor characterized HF behaviour of AFM cantilevers in contact with a studied sample, spatial and frequency response of piezotransducers, and transfer of ultrasonic vibrations between the probe and a specimen. Focusing particularly on Ultrasonic Force Microscopy (UFM), this work is also applicable to waveguide UFM, heterodyne force microscopy, and near-field holographic microscopy, all methods that exploit nonlinear tip-surface force interactions at high frequencies. Leveraging automated multidimensional measurements, spectroscopic UFM (sUFM) is introduced to investigate a range of common experimental parameters, including piezotransducer excitation frequency, probed position, ultrasonic amplitude, cantilever geometry, spring constant, and normal force. Consistent with studies of influence of each of these factors, the data-rich sUFM signatures allow efficient optimization of ultrasonic-AFM based measurements, leading to best practices recommendations of using longer cantilevers with lower fundamental resonance, while at the same time increasing the central frequency of HF piezo-actuators, and only comparing results within areas on the order of few μm{sup 2} unless calibrated directly or compared with in-the-imaged area standards. Diverse materials such as Si, Cr, and photoresist are specifically investigated. This work thereby provides essential insight into the reliable use of MHz vibrations with AFM and provides direct evidence substantiating phenomena such as sensitivity to adhesion, diminished friction for certain ultrasonic conditions, and the

  1. Physical mechanisms of megahertz vibrations and nonlinear detection in ultrasonic force and related microscopies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bosse, J. L.; Huey, B. D.; Tovee, P. D.; Kolosov, O. V.

    2014-01-01

    Use of high frequency (HF) vibrations at MHz frequencies in Atomic Force Microscopy (AFM) advanced nanoscale property mapping to video rates, allowed use of cantilever dynamics for mapping nanomechanical properties of stiff materials, sensing μs time scale phenomena in nanostructures, and enabled detection of subsurface features with nanoscale resolution. All of these methods critically depend on the generally poor characterized HF behaviour of AFM cantilevers in contact with a studied sample, spatial and frequency response of piezotransducers, and transfer of ultrasonic vibrations between the probe and a specimen. Focusing particularly on Ultrasonic Force Microscopy (UFM), this work is also applicable to waveguide UFM, heterodyne force microscopy, and near-field holographic microscopy, all methods that exploit nonlinear tip-surface force interactions at high frequencies. Leveraging automated multidimensional measurements, spectroscopic UFM (sUFM) is introduced to investigate a range of common experimental parameters, including piezotransducer excitation frequency, probed position, ultrasonic amplitude, cantilever geometry, spring constant, and normal force. Consistent with studies of influence of each of these factors, the data-rich sUFM signatures allow efficient optimization of ultrasonic-AFM based measurements, leading to best practices recommendations of using longer cantilevers with lower fundamental resonance, while at the same time increasing the central frequency of HF piezo-actuators, and only comparing results within areas on the order of few μm 2 unless calibrated directly or compared with in-the-imaged area standards. Diverse materials such as Si, Cr, and photoresist are specifically investigated. This work thereby provides essential insight into the reliable use of MHz vibrations with AFM and provides direct evidence substantiating phenomena such as sensitivity to adhesion, diminished friction for certain ultrasonic conditions, and the particular

  2. A NEW CODE FOR NONLINEAR FORCE-FREE FIELD EXTRAPOLATION OF THE GLOBAL CORONA

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jiang Chaowei; Feng Xueshang; Xiang Changqing

    2012-01-01

    Reliable measurements of the solar magnetic field are still restricted to the photosphere, and our present knowledge of the three-dimensional coronal magnetic field is largely based on extrapolations from photospheric magnetograms using physical models, e.g., the nonlinear force-free field (NLFFF) model that is usually adopted. Most of the currently available NLFFF codes have been developed with computational volume such as a Cartesian box or a spherical wedge, while a global full-sphere extrapolation is still under development. A high-performance global extrapolation code is in particular urgently needed considering that the Solar Dynamics Observatory can provide a full-disk magnetogram with resolution up to 4096 × 4096. In this work, we present a new parallelized code for global NLFFF extrapolation with the photosphere magnetogram as input. The method is based on the magnetohydrodynamics relaxation approach, the CESE-MHD numerical scheme, and a Yin-Yang spherical grid that is used to overcome the polar problems of the standard spherical grid. The code is validated by two full-sphere force-free solutions from Low and Lou's semi-analytic force-free field model. The code shows high accuracy and fast convergence, and can be ready for future practical application if combined with an adaptive mesh refinement technique.

  3. Analytical Model of the Nonlinear Dynamics of Cantilever Tip-Sample Surface Interactions for Various Acoustic-Atomic Force Microscopies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cantrell, John H., Jr.; Cantrell, Sean A.

    2008-01-01

    A comprehensive analytical model of the interaction of the cantilever tip of the atomic force microscope (AFM) with the sample surface is developed that accounts for the nonlinearity of the tip-surface interaction force. The interaction is modeled as a nonlinear spring coupled at opposite ends to linear springs representing cantilever and sample surface oscillators. The model leads to a pair of coupled nonlinear differential equations that are solved analytically using a standard iteration procedure. Solutions are obtained for the phase and amplitude signals generated by various acoustic-atomic force microscope (A-AFM) techniques including force modulation microscopy, atomic force acoustic microscopy, ultrasonic force microscopy, heterodyne force microscopy, resonant difference-frequency atomic force ultrasonic microscopy (RDF-AFUM), and the commonly used intermittent contact mode (TappingMode) generally available on AFMs. The solutions are used to obtain a quantitative measure of image contrast resulting from variations in the Young modulus of the sample for the amplitude and phase images generated by the A-AFM techniques. Application of the model to RDF-AFUM and intermittent soft contact phase images of LaRC-cp2 polyimide polymer is discussed. The model predicts variations in the Young modulus of the material of 24 percent from the RDF-AFUM image and 18 percent from the intermittent soft contact image. Both predictions are in good agreement with the literature value of 21 percent obtained from independent, macroscopic measurements of sheet polymer material.

  4. Response of carbon fluxes and climate to orbital forcing changes in the Community Climate System Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jochum, M.; Peacock, S.; Moore, J. K.; Lindsay, K. T.

    2009-12-01

    A global general circulation model coupled to an ocean ecosystem model is used to quantify the response of carbon fluxes and climate to changes in orbital forcing. Compared to the present-day simulation, the simulation with the Earth's orbital parameters from 115,000 years ago features significantly cooler northern high latitudes, but only moderately cooler southern high latitudes. This asymmetry is explained by a 30% reduction of the strength of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation that is caused by an increased Arctic sea-ice export and a resulting freshening of the North Atlantic. The strong northern high-latitude cooling and the direct insolation induced tropical warming lead to global shifts in precipitation and winds to the order of 10-20%. These climate shifts lead to regional differences in air-sea carbon fluxes of the same order. However, the differences in global net carbon fluxes are insignificant. This surprising result is due to several effects, two of which stand out: Firstly, colder sea surface temperature leads to a more effective solubility pump but also to increased sea-ice concentration which blocks air-sea exchange; and secondly, the weakening of Southern Ocean winds, which is predicted by some idealized studies, is small compared to its interannual variability.

  5. Nonlinear flowering responses to climate: are species approaching their limits of phenological change?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Iler, Amy M.; Høye, Toke T.; Inouye, David W.; Schmidt, Niels M.

    2013-01-01

    Many alpine and subalpine plant species exhibit phenological advancements in association with earlier snowmelt. While the phenology of some plant species does not advance beyond a threshold snowmelt date, the prevalence of such threshold phenological responses within plant communities is largely unknown. We therefore examined the shape of flowering phenology responses (linear versus nonlinear) to climate using two long-term datasets from plant communities in snow-dominated environments: Gothic, CO, USA (1974–2011) and Zackenberg, Greenland (1996–2011). For a total of 64 species, we determined whether a linear or nonlinear regression model best explained interannual variation in flowering phenology in response to increasing temperatures and advancing snowmelt dates. The most common nonlinear trend was for species to flower earlier as snowmelt advanced, with either no change or a slower rate of change when snowmelt was early (average 20% of cases). By contrast, some species advanced their flowering at a faster rate over the warmest temperatures relative to cooler temperatures (average 5% of cases). Thus, some species seem to be approaching their limits of phenological change in response to snowmelt but not temperature. Such phenological thresholds could either be a result of minimum springtime photoperiod cues for flowering or a slower rate of adaptive change in flowering time relative to changing climatic conditions. PMID:23836793

  6. A Hybrid Interpolation Method for Geometric Nonlinear Spatial Beam Elements with Explicit Nodal Force

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Huiqing Fang

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Based on geometrically exact beam theory, a hybrid interpolation is proposed for geometric nonlinear spatial Euler-Bernoulli beam elements. First, the Hermitian interpolation of the beam centerline was used for calculating nodal curvatures for two ends. Then, internal curvatures of the beam were interpolated with a second interpolation. At this point, C1 continuity was satisfied and nodal strain measures could be consistently derived from nodal displacement and rotation parameters. The explicit expression of nodal force without integration, as a function of global parameters, was founded by using the hybrid interpolation. Furthermore, the proposed beam element can be degenerated into linear beam element under the condition of small deformation. Objectivity of strain measures and patch tests are also discussed. Finally, four numerical examples are discussed to prove the validity and effectivity of the proposed beam element.

  7. Forced convective heat transfer in boundary layer flow of Sisko fluid over a nonlinear stretching sheet.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Munir, Asif; Shahzad, Azeem; Khan, Masood

    2014-01-01

    The major focus of this article is to analyze the forced convective heat transfer in a steady boundary layer flow of Sisko fluid over a nonlinear stretching sheet. Two cases are studied, namely (i) the sheet with variable temperature (PST case) and (ii) the sheet with variable heat flux (PHF case). The heat transfer aspects are investigated for both integer and non-integer values of the power-law index. The governing partial differential equations are reduced to a system of nonlinear ordinary differential equations using appropriate similarity variables and solved numerically. The numerical results are obtained by the shooting method using adaptive Runge Kutta method with Broyden's method in the domain[Formula: see text]. The numerical results for the temperature field are found to be strongly dependent upon the power-law index, stretching parameter, wall temperature parameter, material parameter of the Sisko fluid and Prandtl number. In addition, the local Nusselt number versus wall temperature parameter is also graphed and tabulated for different values of pertaining parameters. Further, numerical results are validated by comparison with exact solutions as well as previously published results in the literature.

  8. Evaluation of the clamping force in high tension bolt by using the ultrasonic nonlinearity

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jang, Kyung Young; Cheon, Hae Wha; Ha, Hob; Park, Man Sick; Kim, No You

    2005-01-01

    High tension bolts have been used widely for the clamping of many kinds of large structure. Therefore, its estimation has been regarded as main issue in the maintenance of high tension bolts. This paper proposes a novel method using the ultrasonic nonlinearity, which is based on the dependency of sound speed on the stress. For this we introduce nonlinear elastic constants in the stress-strain relationship, and derive the sound speed as a linear function of stress. In order to verify the usefulness of the proposed method, two kinds of experiments are carried out: The first one is to measure the sound speed when the bolt is stressed by the tension tester. The result showed good agreement with the expected linear relationship between the sound speed and the axial stress. The second one is to measure the sound speed when the bolt is stressed by the torque wrench. The results showed that the sound speed was decreased when the torque was increased. From these results we can say that the proposed method is enough useful to evaluate the clamping force in the high tension bolt.

  9. Nonlinear dynamics of a thin liquid film on an axially oscillating cylindrical surface subjected to double-frequency forcing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haimovich, Ory; Oron, Alexander

    2013-05-01

    The nonlinear dynamics of a thin axisymmetric liquid film on a horizontal cylindrical substrate subjected to an axial double-frequency forcing that consists of two components of different amplitudes and frequencies and a possible phase shift is considered in this paper. A nonlinear evolution equation governing the spatiotemporal dynamics of the film interface has been derived in the long-wave limit. Similar to the case of a single-frequency forcing considered in our earlier work, there exists a critical forcing amplitude below which the film undergoes a long-time capillary rupture typical for a static cylinder, whereas above it the film remains continuous. We find that it is possible to arrest the rupture even if the forcing parameters of each of the two components correspond separately to the domain where rupture takes place. It is shown that the critical forcing amplitude is easily determined via a single-frequency case when the two forcing frequencies are equal. In the case of different forcing amplitudes and frequencies, the variation of the critical forcing amplitude as a function of the frequency ratio exhibits a unique behavior displaying the emergence of spikes. A related case of an amplitude-modulated single-frequency forcing is also addressed here. For a sufficiently small frequency of the amplitude modulation, a significant increase of the pattern amplitude is observed. In the case of commensurate forcing frequencies, the flow is found to be quasiperiodic.

  10. First Use of Synoptic Vector Magnetograms for Global Nonlinear, Force-Free Coronal Magnetic Field Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tadesse, T.; Wiegelmann, T.; Gosain, S.; MacNeice, P.; Pevtsov, A. A.

    2014-01-01

    Context. The magnetic field permeating the solar atmosphere is generally thought to provide the energy for much of the activity seen in the solar corona, such as flares, coronal mass ejections (CMEs), etc. To overcome the unavailability of coronal magnetic field measurements, photospheric magnetic field vector data can be used to reconstruct the coronal field. Currently, there are several modelling techniques being used to calculate three-dimensional field lines into the solar atmosphere. Aims. For the first time, synoptic maps of a photospheric-vector magnetic field synthesized from the vector spectromagnetograph (VSM) on Synoptic Optical Long-term Investigations of the Sun (SOLIS) are used to model the coronal magnetic field and estimate free magnetic energy in the global scale. The free energy (i.e., the energy in excess of the potential field energy) is one of the main indicators used in space weather forecasts to predict the eruptivity of active regions. Methods. We solve the nonlinear force-free field equations using an optimization principle in spherical geometry. The resulting threedimensional magnetic fields are used to estimate the magnetic free energy content E(sub free) = E(sub nlfff) - E(sub pot), which is the difference of the magnetic energies between the nonpotential field and the potential field in the global solar corona. For comparison, we overlay the extrapolated magnetic field lines with the extreme ultraviolet (EUV) observations by the atmospheric imaging assembly (AIA) on board the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO). Results. For a single Carrington rotation 2121, we find that the global nonlinear force-free field (NLFFF) magnetic energy density is 10.3% higher than the potential one. Most of this free energy is located in active regions.

  11. Nonlinear Variations of Net Primary Productivity and Its Relationship with Climate and Vegetation Phenology, China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jian Yang

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available Net primary productivity (NPP is an important component of the terrestrial carbon cycle. In this study, NPP was estimated based on two models and Moderate Resolution Imaging Spaectroradiometer (MODIS data. The spatiotemporal patterns of NPP and the correlations with climate factors and vegetation phenology were then analyzed. Our results showed that NPP derived from MODIS performed well in China. Spatially, NPP decreased from the southeast toward the northwest. Temporally, NPP showed a nonlinear increasing trend at a national scale, but the magnitude became slow after 2004. At a regional scale, NPP in Northern China and the Tibetan Plateau showed a nonlinear increasing trend, while the NPP decreased in most areas of Southern China. The decreases in NPP were more than offset by the increases. At the biome level, all vegetation types displayed an increasing trend, except for shrub and evergreen broad forests (EBF. Moreover, a turning point year occurred for all vegetation types, except for EBF. Generally, climatic factors and Length of Season were all positively correlated with the NPP, while the relationships were much more diverse at a regional level. The direct effect of solar radiation on the NPP was larger (0.31 than precipitation (0.25 and temperature (0.07. Our results indicated that China could mitigate climate warming at a regional and/or global scale to some extent during the time period of 2001–2014.

  12. Detectability of the impacts of ozone-depleting substances and greenhouse gases upon stratospheric ozone accounting for nonlinearities in historical forcings

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bandoro, Justin; Solomon, Susan; Santer, Benjamin D.; Kinnison, Douglas E.; Mills, Michael J.

    2018-01-01

    We perform a formal attribution study of upper- and lower-stratospheric ozone changes using observations together with simulations from the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model. Historical model simulations were used to estimate the zonal-mean response patterns (fingerprints) to combined forcing by ozone-depleting substances (ODSs) and well-mixed greenhouse gases (GHGs), as well as to the individual forcing by each factor. Trends in the similarity between the searched-for fingerprints and homogenized observations of stratospheric ozone were compared to trends in pattern similarity between the fingerprints and the internally and naturally generated variability inferred from long control runs. This yields estimated signal-to-noise (S/N) ratios for each of the three fingerprints (ODS, GHG, and ODS + GHG). In both the upper stratosphere (defined in this paper as 1 to 10 hPa) and lower stratosphere (40 to 100 hPa), the spatial fingerprints of the ODS + GHG and ODS-only patterns were consistently detectable not only during the era of maximum ozone depletion but also throughout the observational record (1984-2016). We also develop a fingerprint attribution method to account for forcings whose time evolutions are markedly nonlinear over the observational record. When the nonlinearity of the time evolution of the ODS and ODS + GHG signals is accounted for, we find that the S/N ratios obtained with the stratospheric ODS and ODS + GHG fingerprints are enhanced relative to standard linear trend analysis. Use of the nonlinear signal detection method also reduces the detection time - the estimate of the date at which ODS and GHG impacts on ozone can be formally identified. Furthermore, by explicitly considering nonlinear signal evolution, the complete observational record can be used in the S/N analysis, without applying piecewise linear regression and introducing arbitrary break points. The GHG-driven fingerprint of ozone changes was not statistically identifiable in either

  13. Multiple stressors, nonlinear effects and the implications of climate change impacts on marine coastal ecosystems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hewitt, Judi E; Ellis, Joanne I; Thrush, Simon F

    2016-08-01

    Global climate change will undoubtedly be a pressure on coastal marine ecosystems, affecting not only species distributions and physiology but also ecosystem functioning. In the coastal zone, the environmental variables that may drive ecological responses to climate change include temperature, wave energy, upwelling events and freshwater inputs, and all act and interact at a variety of spatial and temporal scales. To date, we have a poor understanding of how climate-related environmental changes may affect coastal marine ecosystems or which environmental variables are likely to produce priority effects. Here we use time series data (17 years) of coastal benthic macrofauna to investigate responses to a range of climate-influenced variables including sea-surface temperature, southern oscillation indices (SOI, Z4), wind-wave exposure, freshwater inputs and rainfall. We investigate responses from the abundances of individual species to abundances of functional traits and test whether species that are near the edge of their tolerance to another stressor (in this case sedimentation) may exhibit stronger responses. The responses we observed were all nonlinear and some exhibited thresholds. While temperature was most frequently an important predictor, wave exposure and ENSO-related variables were also frequently important and most ecological variables responded to interactions between environmental variables. There were also indications that species sensitive to another stressor responded more strongly to weaker climate-related environmental change at the stressed site than the unstressed site. The observed interactions between climate variables, effects on key species or functional traits, and synergistic effects of additional anthropogenic stressors have important implications for understanding and predicting the ecological consequences of climate change to coastal ecosystems. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  14. NONLINEAR FORCE-FREE MAGNETIC FIELD FITTING TO CORONAL LOOPS WITH AND WITHOUT STEREOSCOPY

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Aschwanden, Markus J.

    2013-01-01

    We developed a new nonlinear force-free magnetic field (NLFFF) forward-fitting algorithm based on an analytical approximation of force-free and divergence-free NLFFF solutions, which requires as input a line-of-sight magnetogram and traced two-dimensional (2D) loop coordinates of coronal loops only, in contrast to stereoscopically triangulated three-dimensional loop coordinates used in previous studies. Test results of simulated magnetic configurations and from four active regions observed with STEREO demonstrate that NLFFF solutions can be fitted with equal accuracy with or without stereoscopy, which relinquishes the necessity of STEREO data for magnetic modeling of active regions (on the solar disk). The 2D loop tracing method achieves a 2D misalignment of μ 2 = 2.°7 ± 1.°3 between the model field lines and observed loops, and an accuracy of ≈1.0% for the magnetic energy or free magnetic energy ratio. The three times higher spatial resolution of TRACE or SDO/AIA (compared with STEREO) also yields a proportionally smaller misalignment angle between model fit and observations. Visual/manual loop tracings are found to produce more accurate magnetic model fits than automated tracing algorithms. The computation time of the new forward-fitting code amounts to a few minutes per active region.

  15. Linking the uncertainty of low frequency variability in tropical forcing in regional climate change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Forest, Chris E. [Pennsylvania State Univ., University Park, PA (United States). Dept. of Meteorology; Barsugli, Joseph J. [Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO (United States). CIRES; Li, Wei [Pennsylvania State Univ., University Park, PA (United States). Dept. of Meteorology

    2015-02-20

    The project utilizes multiple atmospheric general circulation models (AGCMs) to examine the regional climate sensitivity to tropical sea surface temperature forcing through a series of ensemble experiments. The overall goal for this work is to use the global teleconnection operator (GTO) as a metric to assess the impact of model structural differences on the uncertainties in regional climate variability.

  16. Assessing the Organizational Climate in the Belgian Armed Forces

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Mylle, Jacques

    1998-01-01

    ... are. Organizational climate is defined as the synthetic, collective perception of a set of relatively stable internal aspects of the organization as experienced and described by the members of that organization.

  17. Biennial-Aligned Lunisolar-Forcing of ENSO: Implications for Simplified Climate Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pukite, P. R.

    2017-12-01

    By solving Laplace's tidal equations along the equatorial Pacific thermocline, assuming a delayed-differential effective gravity forcing due to a combined lunar+solar (lunisolar) stimulus, we are able to precisely match ENSO periodic variations over wide intervals. The underlying pattern is difficult to decode by conventional means such as spectral analysis, which is why it has remained hidden for so long, despite the excellent agreement in the time-domain. What occurs is that a non-linear seasonal modulation with monthly and fortnightly lunar impulses along with a biennially-aligned "see-saw" is enough to cause a physical aliasing and thus multiple folding in the frequency spectrum. So, instead of a conventional spectral tidal decomposition, we opted for a time-domain cross-validating approach to calibrate the amplitude and phasing of the lunisolar cycles. As the lunar forcing consists of three fundamental periods (draconic, anomalistic, synodic), we used the measured Earth's length-of-day (LOD) decomposed and resolved at a monthly time-scale [1] to align the amplitude and phase precisely. Even slight variations from the known values of the long-period tides will degrade the fit, so a high-resolution calibration is possible. Moreover, a narrow training segment from 1880-1920 using NINO34/SOI data is adequate to extrapolate the cycles of the past 100 years (see attached figure). To further understand the biennial impact of a yearly differential-delay, we were able to also decompose using difference equations the historical sea-level-height readings at Sydney harbor to clearly expose the ENSO behavior. Finally, the ENSO lunisolar model was validated by back-extrapolating to Unified ENSO coral proxy (UEP) records dating to 1650. The quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) behavior of equatorial stratospheric winds derives following a similar pattern to ENSO via the tidal equations, but with an emphasis on draconic forcing. This improvement in ENSO and QBO understanding has

  18. Climate and carbon-cycle response to astronomical forcing over the last 35 Ma.

    Science.gov (United States)

    De Vleeschouwer, D.; Palike, H.; Vahlenkamp, M.; Crucifix, M.

    2017-12-01

    On a million-year time scale, the characteristics of insolation forcing caused by cyclical variations in the astronomical parameters of the Earth remain stable. Nevertheless, Earth's climate responded very differently to this forcing during different parts of the Cenozoic. The recently-published ∂18Obenthic megasplice (De Vleeschouwer et al., 2017) allowed for a clear visualization of these changes in global climate response to astronomical forcing. However, many open questions remain regarding how carbon-cycle dynamics influence Earth's climate sensitivity to astronomical climate forcing. To provide insight into the interaction between the carbon cycle and astronomical insolation forcing, we built a benthic carbon isotope (∂13Cbenthic) megasplice for the last 35 Ma, employing the same technique used to build the ∂18Obenthic megasplice. The ∂13Cbenthic megasplice exhibits a strong imprint of the 405 and 100-kyr eccentricity cycles throughout the last 35 Ma. This is intriguing, as the oxygen isotope megasplice looses its eccentricity imprint after the mid-Miocene climatic transition (MMCT; see Fig. 1 in De Vleeschouwer et al., 2017). In other words, the carbon cycle responded completely differently to astronomical forcing, compared to global climate during the late Miocene. We visualize this difference in response by the application of a Gaussian process, which renders the dependence of one variable (here ∂18Obenthic or ∂13Cbenthic) in a multidimensional space (here precession, obliquity and eccentricity). Together, the ∂13Cbenthic and ∂18Obenthic megasplices thus provide a unique tool for paleoclimatology, allowing for the quantification and visualization of the changing paleoclimate and carbon-cycle response to astronomical forcing throughout geologic time. References De Vleeschouwer, D., Vahlenkamp, M., Crucifix, M., Pälike, H., 2017. Alternating Southern and Northern Hemisphere climate response to astronomical forcing during the past 35 m

  19. Nonlinear effect of climate on plague during the third pandemic in China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Lei; Liu, Qiyong; Stige, Leif Chr.; Ben Ari, Tamara; Fang, Xiye; Chan, Kung-Sik; Wang, Shuchun; Stenseth, Nils Chr.; Zhang, Zhibin

    2011-01-01

    Over the years, plague has caused a large number of deaths worldwide and subsequently changed history, not the least during the period of the Black Death. Of the three plague pandemics, the third is believed to have originated in China. Using the spatial and temporal human plague records in China from 1850 to 1964, we investigated the association of human plague intensity (plague cases per year) with proxy data on climate condition (specifically an index for dryness/wetness). Our modeling analysis demonstrates that the responses of plague intensity to dry/wet conditions were different in northern and southern China. In northern China, plague intensity generally increased when wetness increased, for both the current and the previous year, except for low intensity during extremely wet conditions in the current year (reflecting a dome-shaped response to current-year dryness/wetness). In southern China, plague intensity generally decreased when wetness increased, except for high intensity during extremely wet conditions of the current year. These opposite effects are likely related to the different climates and rodent communities in the two parts of China: In northern China (arid climate), rodents are expected to respond positively to high precipitation, whereas in southern China (humid climate), high precipitation is likely to have a negative effect. Our results suggest that associations between human plague intensity and precipitation are nonlinear: positive in dry conditions, but negative in wet conditions. PMID:21646523

  20. Changes of extreme precipitation and nonlinear influence of climate variables over monsoon region in China

    KAUST Repository

    Gao, Tao

    2017-07-19

    The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) and Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) are well understood to be major drivers for the variability of precipitation extremes over monsoon regions in China (MRC). However, research on monsoon extremes in China and their associations with climate variables is limited. In this study, we examine the space-time variations of extreme precipitation across the MRC, and assess the time-varying influences of the climate drivers using Bayesian dynamic linear regression and their combined nonlinear effects through fitting generalized additive models. Results suggest that the central-east and south China is dominated by less frequent but more intense precipitation. Extreme rainfalls show significant positive trends, coupled with a significant decline of dry spells, indicating an increasing chance of occurrence of flood-induced disasters in the MRC during 1960–2014. Majority of the regional indices display some abrupt shifts during the 1990s. The influences of climate variables on monsoon extremes exhibit distinct interannual or interdecadal variations. IOD, ENSO and AMO have strong impacts on monsoon and extreme precipitation, especially during the 1990s, which is generally consistent with the abrupt shifts in precipitation regimes around this period. Moreover, ENSO mainly affects moderate rainfalls and dry spells, while IOD has a more significant impact on precipitation extremes. These findings could be helpful for improving the forecasting of monsoon extremes in China and the evaluations of climate models.

  1. Growth and wall-transpiration control of nonlinear unsteady Görtler vortices forced by free-stream vortical disturbances

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marensi, Elena; Ricco, Pierre

    2017-11-01

    The generation, nonlinear evolution, and wall-transpiration control of unsteady Görtler vortices in an incompressible boundary layer over a concave plate is studied theoretically and numerically. Görtler rolls are initiated and driven by free-stream vortical perturbations of which only the low-frequency components are considered because they penetrate the most into the boundary layer. The formation and development of the disturbances are governed by the nonlinear unsteady boundary-region equations with the centrifugal force included. These equations are subject to appropriate initial and outer boundary conditions, which account for the influence of the upstream and free-stream forcing in a rigorous and mutually consistent manner. Numerical solutions show that the stabilizing effect on nonlinearity, which also occurs in flat-plate boundary layers, is significantly enhanced in the presence of centrifugal forces. Sufficiently downstream, the nonlinear vortices excited at different free-stream turbulence intensities Tu saturate at the same level, proving that the initial amplitude of the forcing becomes unimportant. At low Tu, the disturbance exhibits a quasi-exponential growth with the growth rate being intensified for more curved plates and for lower frequencies. At higher Tu, in the typical range of turbomachinery applications, the Görtler vortices do not undergo a modal stage as nonlinearity saturates rapidly, and the wall curvature does not affect the boundary-layer response. Good quantitative agreement with data from direct numerical simulations and experiments is obtained. Steady spanwise-uniform and spanwise-modulated zero-mass-flow-rate wall transpiration is shown to attenuate the growth of the Görtler vortices significantly. A novel modified version of the Fukagata-Iwamoto-Kasagi identity, used for the first time to study a transitional flow, reveals which terms in the streamwise momentum balance are mostly affected by the wall transpiration, thus

  2. Force-controlled absorption in a fully-nonlinear numerical wave tank

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Spinneken, Johannes; Christou, Marios; Swan, Chris

    2014-01-01

    An active control methodology for the absorption of water waves in a numerical wave tank is introduced. This methodology is based upon a force-feedback technique which has previously been shown to be very effective in physical wave tanks. Unlike other methods, an a-priori knowledge of the wave conditions in the tank is not required; the absorption controller being designed to automatically respond to a wide range of wave conditions. In comparison to numerical sponge layers, effective wave absorption is achieved on the boundary, thereby minimising the spatial extent of the numerical wave tank. In contrast to the imposition of radiation conditions, the scheme is inherently capable of absorbing irregular waves. Most importantly, simultaneous generation and absorption can be achieved. This is an important advance when considering inclusion of reflective bodies within the numerical wave tank. In designing the absorption controller, an infinite impulse response filter is adopted, thereby eliminating the problem of non-causality in the controller optimisation. Two alternative controllers are considered, both implemented in a fully-nonlinear wave tank based on a multiple-flux boundary element scheme. To simplify the problem under consideration, the present analysis is limited to water waves propagating in a two-dimensional domain. The paper presents an extensive numerical validation which demonstrates the success of the method for a wide range of wave conditions including regular, focused and random waves. The numerical investigation also highlights some of the limitations of the method, particularly in simultaneously generating and absorbing large amplitude or highly-nonlinear waves. The findings of the present numerical study are directly applicable to related fields where optimum absorption is sought; these include physical wavemaking, wave power absorption and a wide range of numerical wave tank schemes

  3. A piecewise-integration method for simulating the influence of external forcing on climate

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Zhifu Zhang; Chongjian Qiu; Chenghai Wang

    2008-01-01

    Climate drift occurs in most general circulation models (GCMs) as a result of incomplete physical and numerical representation of the complex climate system,which may cause large uncertainty in sensitivity experiments evaluating climate response to changes in external forcing.To solve this problem,we propose a piecewise-integration method to reduce the systematic error in climate sensitivity studies.The observations are firstly assimilated into a numerical model by using the dynamic relaxation technique to relax to the current state of atmosphere,and then the assimilated fields are continuously used to reinitialize the simulation to reduce the error of climate simulation.When the numerical model is integrated with changed external forcing,the results can be split into two parts,background and perturbation fields,and the background is the state before the external forcing is changed.The piecewise-integration method is used to continuously reinitialize the model with the assimilated field,instead of the background.Therefore,the simulation error of the model with the external forcing can be reduced.In this way,the accuracy of climate sensitivity experiments is greatly improved.Tests with a simple low-order spectral model show that this approach can significantly reduce the uncertainty of climate sensitivity experiments.

  4. A nonlinear eigenvalue problem for self-similar spherical force-free magnetic fields

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lerche, I. [Institut für Geowissenschaften, Naturwissenschaftliche Fakultät III, Martin-Luther Universität, D-06099 Halle (Germany); Low, B. C. [High Altitude Observatory, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado 80307 (United States)

    2014-10-15

    An axisymmetric force-free magnetic field B(r, θ) in spherical coordinates is defined by a function r sin θB{sub φ}=Q(A) relating its azimuthal component to its poloidal flux-function A. The power law r sin θB{sub φ}=aA|A|{sup 1/n}, n a positive constant, admits separable fields with A=(A{sub n}(θ))/(r{sup n}) , posing a nonlinear boundary-value problem for the constant parameter a as an eigenvalue and A{sub n}(θ) as its eigenfunction [B. C. Low and Y. Q Lou, Astrophys. J. 352, 343 (1990)]. A complete analysis is presented of the eigenvalue spectrum for a given n, providing a unified understanding of the eigenfunctions and the physical relationship between the field's degree of multi-polarity and rate of radial decay via the parameter n. These force-free fields, self-similar on spheres of constant r, have basic astrophysical applications. As explicit solutions they have, over the years, served as standard benchmarks for testing 3D numerical codes developed to compute general force-free fields in the solar corona. The study presented includes a set of illustrative multipolar field solutions to address the magnetohydrodynamics (MHD) issues underlying the observation that the solar corona has a statistical preference for negative and positive magnetic helicities in its northern and southern hemispheres, respectively; a hemispherical effect, unchanging as the Sun's global field reverses polarity in successive eleven-year cycles. Generalizing these force-free fields to the separable form B=(H(θ,φ))/(r{sup n+2}) promises field solutions of even richer topological varieties but allowing for φ-dependence greatly complicates the governing equations that have remained intractable. The axisymmetric results obtained are discussed in relation to this generalization and the Parker Magnetostatic Theorem. The axisymmetric solutions are mathematically related to a family of 3D time-dependent ideal MHD solutions for a polytropic fluid of index γ = 4

  5. Differences in the efficacy of climate forcings explained by variations in atmospheric boundary layer depth.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davy, Richard; Esau, Igor

    2016-05-25

    The Earth has warmed in the last century and a large component of that warming has been attributed to increased anthropogenic greenhouse gases. There are also numerous processes that introduce strong, regionalized variations to the overall warming trend. However, the ability of a forcing to change the surface air temperature depends on its spatial and temporal distribution. Here we show that the efficacy of a forcing is determined by the effective heat capacity of the atmosphere, which in cold and dry climates is defined by the depth of the planetary boundary layer. This can vary by an order of magnitude on different temporal and spatial scales, and so we get a strongly amplified temperature response in shallow boundary layers. This must be accounted for to assess the efficacy of a climate forcing, and also implies that multiple climate forcings cannot be linearly combined to determine the temperature response.

  6. Plastic-covered agriculture forces the regional climate to change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, D.; Chen, J.; Chen, X.; Cao, X.

    2016-12-01

    The practice of plastic-covered agriculture as a solution to moderate the dilemma of global food shortage, meanwhile, brings great pressure to the local environment. This research was conducted to reveal the impacts of plastic-covered agritulture on regional climate change by experimenting in a plastic greenhouse (PG) dominated area - Weifang district, Shandong province, China. Based on a new plastic greenhouse index (PGI) proposed in this study, we reconstructed the spatial distribution of PG across 1995-2015 in the study area. With that, land surface temperature (LST) dataset combined with surface evapotranspiration, surface reflectance and precipitation data, was applied to the probe of PG's climatic impacts. Results showed that PG, in the study area, has experienced a striking spatial expansion during the past 20 years, and more important, the expansion correlated strongly to the local climate change. It showed that the annual precipitation, in the study area, decreased during these years, which constrasts to a slightly increasing trend of the adjacent districts without PG construction. In addition, resulting from the greenhouse effect, PG area presented a harsher increase of surface temperature compared to the non-PG areas. Our study also telled that the evapotranspiration of PG area has been largely cutted down ascribing to the gas tightness of plastic materials, showing a decline around 40%. This indicates a way that the development of plastic-covered agriculture may contribute to the change of the local climate.

  7. THE INFLUENCE OF SPATIAL RESOLUTION ON NONLINEAR FORCE-FREE MODELING

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    DeRosa, M. L.; Schrijver, C. J. [Lockheed Martin Solar and Astrophysics Laboratory, 3251 Hanover St. B/252, Palo Alto, CA 94304 (United States); Wheatland, M. S.; Gilchrist, S. A. [Sydney Institute for Astronomy, School of Physics, The University of Sydney, Sydney, NSW 2006 (Australia); Leka, K. D.; Barnes, G. [NorthWest Research Associates, 3380 Mitchell Ln., Boulder, CO 80301 (United States); Amari, T.; Canou, A. [CNRS, Centre de Physique Théorique de l’École Polytechnique, F-91128, Palaiseau Cedex (France); Thalmann, J. K. [Institute of Physics/IGAM, University of Graz, Universitätsplatz 5, A-8010 Graz (Austria); Valori, G. [Mullard Space Science Laboratory, University College London, Holmbury St. Mary, Dorking, Surrey, RH5 6NT (United Kingdom); Wiegelmann, T. [Max-Planck-Institut für Sonnensystemforschung, Justus-von-Liebig-Weg 3, D-37077, Göttingen (Germany); Malanushenko, A. [Department of Physics, Montana State University, Bozeman, MT 59717 (United States); Sun, X. [W. W. Hansen Experimental Physics Laboratory, Stanford University, Stanford, CA 94305 (United States); Régnier, S. [Department of Mathematics and Information Sciences, Faculty of Engineering and Environment, Northumbria University, Newcastle-Upon-Tyne, NE1 8ST (United Kingdom)

    2015-10-01

    The nonlinear force-free field (NLFFF) model is often used to describe the solar coronal magnetic field, however a series of earlier studies revealed difficulties in the numerical solution of the model in application to photospheric boundary data. We investigate the sensitivity of the modeling to the spatial resolution of the boundary data, by applying multiple codes that numerically solve the NLFFF model to a sequence of vector magnetogram data at different resolutions, prepared from a single Hinode/Solar Optical Telescope Spectro-Polarimeter scan of NOAA Active Region 10978 on 2007 December 13. We analyze the resulting energies and relative magnetic helicities, employ a Helmholtz decomposition to characterize divergence errors, and quantify changes made by the codes to the vector magnetogram boundary data in order to be compatible with the force-free model. This study shows that NLFFF modeling results depend quantitatively on the spatial resolution of the input boundary data, and that using more highly resolved boundary data yields more self-consistent results. The free energies of the resulting solutions generally trend higher with increasing resolution, while relative magnetic helicity values vary significantly between resolutions for all methods. All methods require changing the horizontal components, and for some methods also the vertical components, of the vector magnetogram boundary field in excess of nominal uncertainties in the data. The solutions produced by the various methods are significantly different at each resolution level. We continue to recommend verifying agreement between the modeled field lines and corresponding coronal loop images before any NLFFF model is used in a scientific setting.

  8. Climate Forcing Datasets for Agricultural Modeling: Merged Products for Gap-Filling and Historical Climate Series Estimation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ruane, Alex C.; Goldberg, Richard; Chryssanthacopoulos, James

    2014-01-01

    The AgMERRA and AgCFSR climate forcing datasets provide daily, high-resolution, continuous, meteorological series over the 1980-2010 period designed for applications examining the agricultural impacts of climate variability and climate change. These datasets combine daily resolution data from retrospective analyses (the Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications, MERRA, and the Climate Forecast System Reanalysis, CFSR) with in situ and remotely-sensed observational datasets for temperature, precipitation, and solar radiation, leading to substantial reductions in bias in comparison to a network of 2324 agricultural-region stations from the Hadley Integrated Surface Dataset (HadISD). Results compare favorably against the original reanalyses as well as the leading climate forcing datasets (Princeton, WFD, WFD-EI, and GRASP), and AgMERRA distinguishes itself with substantially improved representation of daily precipitation distributions and extreme events owing to its use of the MERRA-Land dataset. These datasets also peg relative humidity to the maximum temperature time of day, allowing for more accurate representation of the diurnal cycle of near-surface moisture in agricultural models. AgMERRA and AgCFSR enable a number of ongoing investigations in the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) and related research networks, and may be used to fill gaps in historical observations as well as a basis for the generation of future climate scenarios.

  9. Impact of climate forcing uncertainty and human water use on global and continental water balance components

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H. Müller Schmied

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available The assessment of water balance components using global hydrological models is subject to climate forcing uncertainty as well as to an increasing intensity of human water use within the 20th century. The uncertainty of five state-of-the-art climate forcings and the resulting range of cell runoff that is simulated by the global hydrological model WaterGAP is presented. On the global land surface, about 62 % of precipitation evapotranspires, whereas 38 % discharges into oceans and inland sinks. During 1971–2000, evapotranspiration due to human water use amounted to almost 1 % of precipitation, while this anthropogenic water flow increased by a factor of approximately 5 between 1901 and 2010. Deviation of estimated global discharge from the ensemble mean due to climate forcing uncertainty is approximately 4 %. Precipitation uncertainty is the most important reason for the uncertainty of discharge and evapotranspiration, followed by shortwave downward radiation. At continental levels, deviations of water balance components due to uncertain climate forcing are higher, with the highest discharge deviations occurring for river discharge in Africa (−6 to 11 % from the ensemble mean. Uncertain climate forcings also affect the estimation of irrigation water use and thus the estimated human impact of river discharge. The uncertainty range of global irrigation water consumption amounts to approximately 50 % of the global sum of water consumption in the other water use sector.

  10. NONLINEAR FORCE PROFILE USED TO INCREASE THE PERFORMANCE OF A HAPTIC USER INTERFACE FOR TELEOPERATING A ROBOTIC HAND

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Anthony L. Crawford

    2012-07-01

    MODIFIED PAPER TITLE AND ABSTRACT DUE TO SLIGHTLY MODIFIED SCOPE: TITLE: Nonlinear Force Profile Used to Increase the Performance of a Haptic User Interface for Teleoperating a Robotic Hand Natural movements and force feedback are important elements in using teleoperated equipment if complex and speedy manipulation tasks are to be accomplished in hazardous environments, such as hot cells, glove boxes, decommissioning, explosives disarmament, and space. The research associated with this paper hypothesizes that a user interface and complementary radiation compatible robotic hand that integrates the human hand’s anthropometric properties, speed capability, nonlinear strength profile, reduction of active degrees of freedom during the transition from manipulation to grasping, and just noticeable difference force sensation characteristics will enhance a user’s teleoperation performance. The main contribution of this research is in that a system that concisely integrates all these factors has yet to be developed and furthermore has yet to be applied to a hazardous environment as those referenced above. In fact, the most prominent slave manipulator teleoperation technology in use today is based on a design patented in 1945 (Patent 2632574) [1]. The robotic hand/user interface systems of similar function as the one being developed in this research limit their design input requirements in the best case to only complementing the hand’s anthropometric properties, speed capability, and linearly scaled force application relationship (e.g. robotic force is a constant, 4 times that of the user). In this paper a nonlinear relationship between the force experienced between the user interface and the robotic hand was devised based on property differences of manipulation and grasping activities as they pertain to the human hand. The results show that such a relationship when subjected to a manipulation task and grasping task produces increased performance compared to the

  11. On multi-fingerprint detection and attribution of greenhouse gas- and aerosol forced climate change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hegerl, G C [Max-Planck-Institut fuer Meteorologie, Hamburg (Germany); Hasselmann, K [Max-Planck-Institut fuer Meteorologie, Hamburg (Germany); Cubasch, U [Deutsches Klimarechenzentrum (DKRZ), Hamburg (Germany); Mitchell, J F.B. [Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research, Bracknell (United Kingdom). Meteorological Office; Roeckner, E [Max-Planck-Institut fuer Meteorologie, Hamburg (Germany); Voss, R [Deutsches Klimarechenzentrum (DKRZ), Hamburg (Germany); Waszkewitz, J [Deutsches Klimarechenzentrum (DKRZ), Hamburg (Germany)

    1996-07-01

    A multi-fingerprint analysis is applied to the detection and attribution of anthropogenic climate change. While a single fingerprint, as applied in a previous paper by Hegerl et al. (1996), is optimal for detecting a significant climate change, the simultaneous use of several fingerprints allows one to investigate additionally the consistency between observations and model predicted climate change signals for competing candidate forcing mechanisms. Thus the multi-fingerprint method is a particularly useful technique for attributing an observed climate change to a proposed cause. Different model-predicted climate change signals are derived from three global warming simulations for the period 1880 to 2049. In one simulation, the forcing was by greenhouse gases only, while in the remaining two simulations the influence of aerosols was also included. The two dominant climate change signals derived from these simulations are optimized statistically by weighting the model-predicted climate change pattern towards low-noise directions. These optimized fingerprints are then applied to observed near surface temperature trends. The space-time structure of natural climate variability (needed to determine the signal-to-noise ratio) is estimated from several multi-century control simulations with different CGCMs and from instrumental data over the last 134 years. (orig.)

  12. Why the warming can't be natural: the nonlinear geophysics of climate closure

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lovejoy, S.

    2015-12-01

    Claims with extraordinary consequences require extraordinary evidence. It is not sufficient to prove that the warming is "extremely likely" to be anthropogenic: to achieve "climate closure", we must also disprove the converse theory that it is a natural fluctuation. This disproof requires an understanding of the strongly nonlinear atmospheric variability: since the 1980's this understanding is one of the important contributions of nonlinear geophysics to the atmospheric sciences. Atmospheric variability spans twenty orders of magnitude in time and ten in space, but it can be tamed with the help of emergent high-level turbulent laws and their anisotropic and multifractal generalizations. We take a voyage through scales and with the help of some new fluctuation analysis tools, we review the arguments and evidence for wide scale range space-time scaling: high level turbulent laws. We examine the consequences for the extreme fluctuations ("grey swan", "black swan" events) and we apply this to estimating the probabilities and return times of extreme centennial, global scale temperature fluctuations. Even with conservative assumptions, the natural warming hypothesis can be rejected with >99% confidence.

  13. Recent advances in understanding secondary organic aerosol: Implications for global climate forcing: Advances in Secondary Organic Aerosol

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Shrivastava, Manish [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland Washington USA; Cappa, Christopher D. [Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of California, Davis California USA; Fan, Jiwen [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland Washington USA; Goldstein, Allen H. [Department of Environmental Science, Policy and Management and Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of California, Berkeley California USA; Guenther, Alex B. [Department of Earth System Science, University of California, Irvine California USA; Jimenez, Jose L. [Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences and Department of Chemistry and Biochemistry, University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder Colorado USA; Kuang, Chongai [Brookhaven National Laboratory, Upton New York USA; Laskin, Alexander [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland Washington USA; Martin, Scot T. [School of Engineering and Applied Sciences and Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences, Harvard University, Cambridge Massachusetts USA; Ng, Nga Lee [School of Chemical and Biomolecular Engineering and School of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta Georgia USA; Petaja, Tuukka [Department of Physics, University of Helsinki, Helsinki Finland; Pierce, Jeffrey R. [Department of Atmospheric Science, Colorado State University, Fort Collins Colorado USA; Rasch, Philip J. [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland Washington USA; Roldin, Pontus [Department of Physics, Lund University, Lund Sweden; Seinfeld, John H. [Division of Chemistry and Chemical Engineering, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena California USA; Shilling, John [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland Washington USA; Smith, James N. [Department of Earth System Science, University of California, Irvine California USA; Thornton, Joel A. [Department of Atmospheric Sciences, University of Washington, Seattle Washington USA; Volkamer, Rainer [Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences and Department of Chemistry and Biochemistry, University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder Colorado USA; Wang, Jian [Brookhaven National Laboratory, Upton New York USA; Worsnop, Douglas R. [Aerodyne Research, Inc., Billerica Massachusetts USA; Zaveri, Rahul A. [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland Washington USA; Zelenyuk, Alla [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland Washington USA; Zhang, Qi [Department of Environmental Toxicology, University of California, Davis California USA

    2017-06-01

    Anthropogenic emissions and land-use changes have modified atmospheric aerosol concentrations and size distributions over time. Understanding pre-industrial conditions and changes in organic aerosol due to anthropogenic activities is important because these features 1) influence estimates of aerosol radiative forcing and 2) can confound estimates of the historical response of climate to increases in greenhouse gases (e.g. the ‘climate sensitivity’). Secondary organic aerosol (SOA), formed in the atmosphere by oxidation of organic gases, represents a major fraction of global submicron-sized atmospheric organic aerosol. Over the past decade, significant advances in understanding SOA properties and formation mechanisms have occurred through a combination of laboratory and field measurements, yet current climate models typically do not comprehensively include all important SOA-relevant processes. Therefore, major gaps exist at present between current measurement-based knowledge on the one hand and model implementation of organic aerosols on the other. The critical review herein summarizes some of the important developments in understanding SOA formation that could potentially have large impacts on our understanding of aerosol radiative forcing and climate. We highlight the importance of some recently discovered processes and properties that influence the growth of SOA particles to sizes relevant for clouds and radiative forcing, including: formation of extremely low-volatility organics in the gas-phase; isoprene epoxydiols (IEPOX) multi-phase chemistry; particle-phase oligomerization; and physical properties such as viscosity. In addition, this review also highlights some of the important processes that involve interactions between natural biogenic emissions and anthropogenic emissions, such as the role of sulfate and oxides of nitrogen (NOx) on SOA formation from biogenic volatile organic compounds. Studies that relate the observed evolution of organic aerosol

  14. Full nonlinear treatment of the global thermospheric wind system. Part 1: Mathematical method and analysis of forces

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blum, P. W.; Harris, I.

    1973-01-01

    The equations of horizontal motion of the neutral atmosphere between 120 and 500 km are integrated with the inclusion of all the nonlinear terms of the convective derivative and the viscous forces due to vertical and horizontal velocity gradients. Empirical models of the distribution of neutral and charged particles are assumed to be known. The model of velocities developed is a steady state model. In part 1 the mathematical method used in the integration of the Navier-Stokes equations is described and the various forces are analysed.

  15. Fresnel formulas for the forced electromagnetic pulses and their application for optical-to-terahertz conversion in nonlinear crystals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bakunov, M I; Maslov, A V; Bodrov, S B

    2007-11-16

    We show that the usual Fresnel formulas for a free-propagating pulse are not applicable for a forced terahertz electromagnetic pulse supported by an optical pulse at the end of a nonlinear crystal. The correct linear reflection and transmission coefficients that we derive show that such pulses can experience a gain or loss at the boundary. This energy change depends on linear dielectric constants only. We also predict a regime where a complete disappearance of the forced pulse under oblique incidence occurs, an effect that has no counterpart for free-propagating pulses.

  16. A comprehensive modeling and vibration analysis of AFM microcantilevers subjected to nonlinear tip-sample interaction forces

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Eslami, Sohrab; Jalili, Nader

    2012-01-01

    Precise and accurate representation of an Atomic Force Microscopy (AFM) system is essential in studying the effects of boundary interaction forces present between the probe's tip and the sample. In this paper, a comprehensive analytical model for the AFM system utilizing a distributed-parameters based approach is proposed. More specifically, we consider two important attributes of these systems; namely the rotary inertia and shear deformation when compared with the Euler–Bernoulli beam theory. Moreover, a comprehensive nonlinear interaction force is assumed between probe's and sample in order to reveal the response of the system more realistically. This nanoscale interaction force is based on a general form consisting of both attractive and repulsive components as well as a function of the tip-sample distance and the microcantilever's base and sample oscillations. Mechanical properties of the sample could interact with the nanomechanical coupling field between the probe' tip and sample and be implemented in studying the composition information of the sample and the ultra-small features inside it. Therefore, by modulating the dynamics of the AFM system such as the driving amplitude of the microcantilever the procedure for the subsurface imaging is described. The presented approach here could be implemented for designing the AFM probes by examining the tip-sample interaction forces dominant by the van der Waals forces. Several numerical case studies are presented and the force–distance diagram reveals that the proposed nonlinear nanomechanical force along with the distributed-parameters model for the microcantilever is able to fulfill the mechanics of the Lennard–Jones potential. -- Highlights: ► We present a comprehensive distributed-parameters model for AFM microcantilever. ► Assuming a nonlinear and implicit interaction force between tip and sample. ► Timoshenko beam is compared with the Euler–Bernoulli having the same force model. ► Frequency

  17. Investigating the Linear Dependence of Direct and Indirect Radiative Forcing on Emission of Carbonaceous Aerosols in a Global Climate Model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chen, Yanju [Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Urbana IL USA; Wang, Hailong [Atmospheric Sciences and Global Change Division, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland WA USA; Singh, Balwinder [Atmospheric Sciences and Global Change Division, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland WA USA; Ma, Po-Lun [Atmospheric Sciences and Global Change Division, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland WA USA; Rasch, Philip J. [Atmospheric Sciences and Global Change Division, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland WA USA; Bond, Tami C. [Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Urbana IL USA

    2018-02-02

    The linearity of dependence of aerosol direct and indirect radiative forcing (DRF and IRF) on emissions is essential to answer the policy-relevant question on how the change in forcing would result from a change in emission. In this study, the forcing-to-emission relationship is investigated for black carbon (BC) and primary organic carbon (OC) emitted from North America and Asia. Direct and indirect radiative forcing of BC and OC are simulated with the Community Atmosphere Model (CAM5.1). Two diagnostics are introduced to aid in policy-relevant discussion: emission-normalized forcing (ENF) and linearity (R). DRF is linearly related to emission for both BC and OC from the two regions and emission-normalized DRF is similar, within 15%. IRF is linear to emissions for weaker sources and regions far from source (North American BC and OC), while for large emission sources and near source regions (Asian OC) the response of forcing to emission is sub-linear. In North America emission-normalized IRF (ENIRF) is 2-4 times higher than that in Asia. The difference among regions and species is primarily caused by failure of accumulation mode particles to become CCN, and then to activate into CDNC. Optimal aggregation area (30ºx 30º) has been used to communicate the regional variation of forcing-to-emission relationship. For IRF, only 15-40% of the Earth’s surface is significantly affected by the two emission regions, but the forcing in these regions comprises most of the global impact. Linearity of IRF occurs in about two-thirds of the significant regions except for Asian OC. ENF is an effective tool to estimate forcing changes due to reduction of surface emissions, as long as there is sufficient attention to the causes of nonlinearity in the simulations used to derive ENIRF (emission into polluted regions and emission elevation). The differences in ENIRF have important implications for policy decisions. Lower ENIRF in more polluted region like Asia means that reductions of

  18. Organic condensation - a vital link connecting aerosol formation to climate forcing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Riipinen, I.; Pierce, J. R.; Yli-Juuti, T.; Nieminen, T.; Häkkinen, S.; Ehn, M.; Junninen, H.; Lehtipalo, K.; Petäjä, T.; Slowik, J.; Chang, R.; Shantz, N. C.; Abbatt, J.; Leaitch, W. R.; Kerminen, V.-M.; Worsnop, D. R.; Pandis, S. N.; Donahue, N. M.; Kulmala, M.

    2011-01-01

    Atmospheric aerosol particles influence global climate as well as impair air quality through their effects on atmospheric visibility and human health. Ultrafine (<100 nm) particles often dominate aerosol numbers, and nucleation of atmospheric vapors is an important source of these particles. To have climatic relevance, however, the freshly-nucleated particles need to grow in size. We combine observations from two continental sites (Egbert, Canada and Hyytiälä, Finland) to show that condensation of organic vapors is a crucial factor governing the lifetimes and climatic importance of the smallest atmospheric particles. We demonstrate that state-of-the-science organic gas-particle partitioning models fail to reproduce the observations, and propose a modeling approach that is consistent with the measurements. We demonstrate the large sensitivity of climatic forcing of atmospheric aerosols to these interactions between organic vapors and the smallest atmospheric nanoparticles - highlighting the need for representing this process in global climate models.

  19. Drivers of 2016 record Arctic warmth assessed using climate simulations subjected to Factual and Counterfactual forcing

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lantao Sun

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available A suite of historical atmospheric model simulations is described that uses a hierarchy of global boundary forcings designed to inform research on the detection and attribution of weather and climate-related extremes. In addition to experiments forced by actual variations in sea surface temperature, sea ice concentration, and atmospheric chemical composition (so-called Factual experiments; additional (Counterfactual experiments are conducted in which the boundary forcings are adjusted by removing estimates of long-term climate change. A third suite of experiments are identical to the Factual runs except that sea ice concentrations are set to climatological conditions (Clim-Polar experiments. These were used to investigate the cause for extremely warm Arctic surface temperature during 2016.Much of the magnitude of surface temperature anomalies averaged poleward of 65°N in 2016 (3.2 ± 0.6 °C above a 1980–89 reference is shown to have been forced by observed global boundary conditions. The Factual experiments reveal that at least three quarters of the magnitude of 2016 annual mean Arctic warmth was forced, with considerable sensitivity to assumptions of sea ice thickness change. Results also indicate that 30–40% of the overall forced Arctic warming signal in 2016 originated from drivers outside of the Arctic. Despite such remote effects, the experiments reveal that the extreme magnitude of the 2016 Arctic warmth could not have occurred without consideration of the Arctic sea ice loss. We find a near-zero probability for Arctic surface temperature to be as warm as occurred in 2016 under late-19th century boundary conditions, and also under 2016 boundary conditions that do not include the depleted Arctic sea ice. Results from the atmospheric model experiments are reconciled with coupled climate model simulations which lead to a conclusion that about 60% of the 2016 Arctic warmth was likely attributable to human-induced climate change

  20. Expert judgments about transient climate response to alternative future trajectories of radiative forcing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zickfeld, Kirsten; Morgan, M Granger; Frame, David J; Keith, David W

    2010-07-13

    There is uncertainty about the response of the climate system to future trajectories of radiative forcing. To quantify this uncertainty we conducted face-to-face interviews with 14 leading climate scientists, using formal methods of expert elicitation. We structured the interviews around three scenarios of radiative forcing stabilizing at different levels. All experts ranked "cloud radiative feedbacks" as contributing most to their uncertainty about future global mean temperature change, irrespective of the specified level of radiative forcing. The experts disagreed about the relative contribution of other physical processes to their uncertainty about future temperature change. For a forcing trajectory that stabilized at 7 Wm(-2) in 2200, 13 of the 14 experts judged the probability that the climate system would undergo, or be irrevocably committed to, a "basic state change" as > or =0.5. The width and median values of the probability distributions elicited from the different experts for future global mean temperature change under the specified forcing trajectories vary considerably. Even for a moderate increase in forcing by the year 2050, the medians of the elicited distributions of temperature change relative to 2000 range from 0.8-1.8 degrees C, and some of the interquartile ranges do not overlap. Ten of the 14 experts estimated that the probability that equilibrium climate sensitivity exceeds 4.5 degrees C is > 0.17, our interpretation of the upper limit of the "likely" range given by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Finally, most experts anticipated that over the next 20 years research will be able to achieve only modest reductions in their degree of uncertainty.

  1. The non-linear, interactive effects of population density and climate drive the geographical patterns of waterfowl survival

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Qing; Boomer, G. Scott; Kendall, William L.

    2018-01-01

    On-going climate change has major impacts on ecological processes and patterns. Understanding the impacts of climate on the geographical patterns of survival can provide insights to how population dynamics respond to climate change and provide important information for the development of appropriate conservation strategies at regional scales. It is challenging to understand the impacts of climate on survival, however, due to the fact that the non-linear relationship between survival and climate can be modified by density-dependent processes. In this study we extended the Brownie model to partition hunting and non-hunting mortalities and linked non-hunting survival to covariates. We applied this model to four decades (1972–2014) of waterfowl band-recovery, breeding population survey, and precipitation and temperature data covering multiple ecological regions to examine the non-linear, interactive effects of population density and climate on waterfowl non-hunting survival at a regional scale. Our results showed that the non-linear effect of temperature on waterfowl non-hunting survival was modified by breeding population density. The concave relationship between non-hunting survival and temperature suggested that the effects of warming on waterfowl survival might be multifaceted. Furthermore, the relationship between non-hunting survival and temperature was stronger when population density was higher, suggesting that high-density populations may be less buffered against warming than low-density populations. Our study revealed distinct relationships between waterfowl non-hunting survival and climate across and within ecological regions, highlighting the importance of considering different conservation strategies according to region-specific population and climate conditions. Our findings and associated novel modelling approach have wide implications in conservation practice.

  2. A Non-Linear Force-Free Field Model for the Evolving Magnetic Structure of Solar Filaments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mackay, Duncan H.; van Ballegooijen, A. A.

    2009-12-01

    In this paper the effect of a small magnetic element approaching the main body of a solar filament is considered through non-linear force-free field modeling. The filament is represented by a series of magnetic dips. Once the dips are calculated, a simple hydrostatic atmosphere model is applied to determine which structures have sufficient column mass depth to be visible in Hα. Two orientations of the bipole are considered, either parallel or anti-parallel to the overlying arcade. The magnetic polarity that lies closest to the filament is then advected towards the filament. Initially for both the dominant and minority polarity advected elements, right/left bearing barbs are produced for dextral/sinsitral filaments. The production of barbs due to dominant polarity elements is a new feature. In later stages the filament breaks into two dipped sections and takes a highly irregular, non-symmetrical form with multiple pillars. The two sections are connected by field lines with double dips even though the twist of the field is less than one turn. Reconnection is not found to play a key role in the break up of the filament. The non-linear force-free fields produce very different results to extrapolated linear-force free fields. For the cases considered here the linear force-free field does not produce the break up of the filament nor the production of barbs as a result of dominant polarity elements.

  3. Cloud forming properties of ambient aerosol in the Netherlands and resultant shortwave radiative forcing of climate

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Khlystov, A.

    1998-01-01

    This thesis discusses properties of ambient aerosols in the Netherlands which are controlling the magnitude of the local aerosol radiative forcing. Anthropogenic aerosols influence climate by changing the radiative transfer through the atmosphere via two effects, one is direct and a second

  4. A model perspective on orbital forcing of monsoons and Mediterranean climate using EC-Earth

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bosmans, J.H.C.

    2014-01-01

    This thesis focuses on orbitally forced changes of monsoons and Mediterranean climate. Changes in the shape of the Earths orbit around the Sun and its rotational axis govern the seasonal and latitudinal distribution of incoming solar radiation on time scales of thousands to millions of years. The

  5. Anthropogenic radiative forcing of southern African and Southern Hemisphere climate variability and change

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Engelbrecht, FA

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available of stratospheric ozone, greenhouse gasses, aerosols and sulphur dioxide, can improve the model's skill to simulate inter-annual variability over southern Africa. The paper secondly explores the role of different radiative forcings of future climate change over...

  6. Climate forcing due to optimization of maximal leaf conductance in subtropical vegetation under rising CO2

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Boer, H.J. de; Lammertsma, E.I.; Wagner-Cremer, F.; Dilcher, D.L.; Wassen, M.J.; Dekker, S.C.

    2011-01-01

    Plant physiological adaptation to the global rise in atmospheric CO 2 concentration (CO2) is identified as a crucial climatic forcing. To optimize functioning under rising CO2, plants reduce the diffusive stomatal conductance of their leaves (gs) dynamically by closing stomata and structurally by

  7. Climate variability and physical forcing of the food webs and the carbon budget on panarctic shelves

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Carmack, Eddy; Barber, David; Christensen, Jens

    2006-01-01

    , which differ for different properties and shelf types, as do the likely responses; that is, the distributions of nutrients, organic carbon, freshwater, sediments, and trace minerals will all respond differently to climate forcing. A fundamental conclusion is that the changes associated with light...

  8. Climate forcing and infectious disease transmission in urban landscapes: integrating demographic and socioeconomic heterogeneity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Santos-Vega, Mauricio; Martinez, Pamela P; Pascual, Mercedes

    2016-10-01

    Urbanization and climate change are the two major environmental challenges of the 21st century. The dramatic expansion of cities around the world creates new conditions for the spread, surveillance, and control of infectious diseases. In particular, urban growth generates pronounced spatial heterogeneity within cities, which can modulate the effect of climate factors at local spatial scales in large urban environments. Importantly, the interaction between environmental forcing and socioeconomic heterogeneity at local scales remains an open area in infectious disease dynamics, especially for urban landscapes of the developing world. A quantitative and conceptual framework on urban health with a focus on infectious diseases would benefit from integrating aspects of climate forcing, population density, and level of wealth. In this paper, we review what is known about these drivers acting independently and jointly on urban infectious diseases; we then outline elements that are missing and would contribute to building such a framework. © 2016 New York Academy of Sciences.

  9. Modeling Climate Responses to Spectral Solar Forcing on Centennial and Decadal Time Scales

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wen, G.; Cahalan, R.; Rind, D.; Jonas, J.; Pilewskie, P.; Harder, J.

    2012-01-01

    We report a series of experiments to explore clima responses to two types of solar spectral forcing on decadal and centennial time scales - one based on prior reconstructions, and another implied by recent observations from the SORCE (Solar Radiation and Climate Experiment) SIM (Spectral 1rradiance Monitor). We apply these forcings to the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) Global/Middle Atmosphere Model (GCMAM). that couples atmosphere with ocean, and has a model top near the mesopause, allowing us to examine the full response to the two solar forcing scenarios. We show different climate responses to the two solar forCing scenarios on decadal time scales and also trends on centennial time scales. Differences between solar maximum and solar minimum conditions are highlighted, including impacts of the time lagged reSponse of the lower atmosphere and ocean. This contrasts with studies that assume separate equilibrium conditions at solar maximum and minimum. We discuss model feedback mechanisms involved in the solar forced climate variations.

  10. Attribution of soil moisture dynamics - Initial conditions vs. atmospheric forcing and the role of climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Orth, Rene; Seneviratne, Sonia I.

    2014-05-01

    The world's climate has started to change more quickly in recent decades and a stronger and faster shift is expected in the future. Even if the public perception is mostly limited to a widespread warming, climate change is a complex phenomenon impacting numerous variables of the climate system in different ways, also depending on time and location. Furthermore, extreme events may change more drastically than the mean climate. There is growing evidence that climate change is mostly man-made. However, it is still a matter of debate to which extent changes of the mean climate but also of particular (extreme) events are due to human impact. These questions are addressed by the growing science of climate attribution. Pointing out the anthropogenic influence on extreme events such as the 2010 Russian heatwave or the 2002 floods in Central Europe may help to support adaptation to climate change. This study investigates soil moisture in Europe in the context of climate change, because of its role as a key variable of the land-climate system and its practical importance for instance to agriculture. To derive soil moisture dynamics from 1984-2007 we use E-OBS forcing data together with SRB radiation data and employ an observation-based approach where soil moisture is computed from a water balance equation in which runoff (normalized with precipitation) and ET (normalized with net radiation) are simple functions of soil moisture. The constant runoff function is prescribed for the whole continent, and the ET function is calibrated using temperature data. After performing a validation of the inferred soil moisture data we use it in order to analyze changes in the likelihood of droughts. Our results show increased drought risk especially in north-eastern Europe and the Mediterranean, whereby the probability of extreme droughts increases stronger as for mild dryness episodes. To assess the potential for drought forecasting we furthermore study the importance of the initial

  11. A nonsmooth nonlinear conjugate gradient method for interactive contact force problems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Silcowitz, Morten; Abel, Sarah Maria Niebe; Erleben, Kenny

    2010-01-01

    of a nonlinear complementarity problem (NCP), which can be solved using an iterative splitting method, such as the projected Gauss–Seidel (PGS) method. We present a novel method for solving the NCP problem by applying a Fletcher–Reeves type nonlinear nonsmooth conjugate gradient (NNCG) type method. We analyze...... and present experimental convergence behavior and properties of the new method. Our results show that the NNCG method has at least the same convergence rate as PGS, and in many cases better....

  12. Adaptation to climatic variability and change. Report of the task force on climate adaptation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Smit, B.

    1994-01-01

    A critique and interpretation is presented of what is known and available about adaptation to climate changes, not based on any particular climate scenario. It is assumed that variability is a fact of climate and that changes in climatic conditions are possible and are constantly occurring. Emphasis is on adaptation with regard to economic and social activities in Canada. A series of linked objectives are addressed, relating to demonstration of the significance of adaptation, consideration of case studies of adaptation (past and potential future) in Canada, clarification of the meaning of adaptation and the forms it takes, assessment of policy implications, and identification of research priorities. The basic facts on global climate change are reviewed, including long-term temperature variations, and adaptation is discussed as a public policy response. Examples of adaptation in Canada are given in the areas of Great Lakes property, power generation, and transportation; Atlantic Canada communities and fisheries; forestry; the construction industry; the energy industry; recreation and tourism; agriculture; urban areas; and national defense. Recommendations regarding adapation are made to governments, the private sector, and researchers. An inventory of adaptation strategies for agriculture, the Arctic, coastal areas, ecosystems and land use, energy supply, fisheries, forestry, urban infrastructure, and water resources is appended

  13. Northern Hemisphere forcing of Southern Hemisphere climate during the last deglaciation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    He, Feng; Shakun, Jeremy D; Clark, Peter U; Carlson, Anders E; Liu, Zhengyu; Otto-Bliesner, Bette L; Kutzbach, John E

    2013-02-07

    According to the Milankovitch theory, changes in summer insolation in the high-latitude Northern Hemisphere caused glacial cycles through their impact on ice-sheet mass balance. Statistical analyses of long climate records supported this theory, but they also posed a substantial challenge by showing that changes in Southern Hemisphere climate were in phase with or led those in the north. Although an orbitally forced Northern Hemisphere signal may have been transmitted to the Southern Hemisphere, insolation forcing can also directly influence local Southern Hemisphere climate, potentially intensified by sea-ice feedback, suggesting that the hemispheres may have responded independently to different aspects of orbital forcing. Signal processing of climate records cannot distinguish between these conditions, however, because the proposed insolation forcings share essentially identical variability. Here we use transient simulations with a coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model to identify the impacts of forcing from changes in orbits, atmospheric CO(2) concentration, ice sheets and the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) on hemispheric temperatures during the first half of the last deglaciation (22-14.3 kyr BP). Although based on a single model, our transient simulation with only orbital changes supports the Milankovitch theory in showing that the last deglaciation was initiated by rising insolation during spring and summer in the mid-latitude to high-latitude Northern Hemisphere and by terrestrial snow-albedo feedback. The simulation with all forcings best reproduces the timing and magnitude of surface temperature evolution in the Southern Hemisphere in deglacial proxy records. AMOC changes associated with an orbitally induced retreat of Northern Hemisphere ice sheets is the most plausible explanation for the early Southern Hemisphere deglacial warming and its lead over Northern Hemisphere temperature; the ensuing rise in atmospheric CO(2

  14. A variational numerical method based on finite elements for the nonlinear solution characteristics of the periodically forced Chen system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khan, Sabeel M.; Sunny, D. A.; Aqeel, M.

    2017-09-01

    Nonlinear dynamical systems and their solutions are very sensitive to initial conditions and therefore need to be approximated carefully. In this article, we present and analyze nonlinear solution characteristics of the periodically forced Chen system with the application of a variational method based on the concept of finite time-elements. Our approach is based on the discretization of physical time space into finite elements where each time-element is mapped to a natural time space. The solution of the system is then determined in natural time space using a set of suitable basis functions. The numerical algorithm is presented and implemented to compute and analyze nonlinear behavior at different time-step sizes. The obtained results show an excellent agreement with the classical RK-4 and RK-5 methods. The accuracy and convergence of the method is shown by comparing numerically computed results with the exact solution for a test problem. The presented method has shown a great potential in dealing with the solutions of nonlinear dynamical systems and thus can be utilized in delineating different features and characteristics of their solutions.

  15. On the Representation of Cloud Phase in Global Climate Models, and its Importance for Simulations of Climate Forcings and Feedbacks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Storelvmo, Trude; Sagoo, Navjit; Tan, Ivy

    2016-04-01

    Despite the growing effort in improving the cloud microphysical schemes in GCMs, most of this effort has not focused on improving the ability of GCMs to accurately simulate phase partitioning in mixed-phase clouds. Getting the relative proportion of liquid droplets and ice crystals in clouds right in GCMs is critical for the representation of cloud radiative forcings and cloud-climate feedbacks. Here, we first present satellite observations of cloud phase obtained by NASA's CALIOP instrument, and report on robust statistical relationships between cloud phase and several aerosols species that have been demonstrated to act as ice nuclei (IN) in laboratory studies. We then report on results from model intercomparison projects that reveal that GCMs generally underestimate the amount of supercooled liquid in clouds. For a selected GCM (NCAR 's CAM5), we thereafter show that the underestimate can be attributed to two main factors: i) the presence of IN in the mixed-phase temperature range, and ii) the Wegener-Bergeron-Findeisen process, which converts liquid to ice once ice crystals have formed. Finally, we show that adjusting these two processes such that the GCM's cloud phase is in agreement with the observed has a substantial impact on the simulated radiative forcing due to IN perturbations, as well as on the cloud-climate feedbacks and ultimately climate sensitivity simulated by the GCM.

  16. Nonlinear and Synchronous Dissolved Organic Matter Dynamics in Streams Across an Agriculture Land Use and Climate Setting

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xenopoulos, M. A.; Vogt, R. J.

    2014-12-01

    There is now increasing evidence that non-linearity is a common response in ecological systems to pressures caused by human activities. There is also increasing evidence that exogenous environmental drivers, such as climate, induce spatial and temporal synchrony in a wide range of ecological variables. Using Moran's I and Pearson's correlation, we quantified the synchrony of dissolved organic carbon concentration (DOC) and quality (DOM; e.g., specific UV absorbance, Fluorescence Index, PARAFAC), nutrients, discharge and temperature in 40 streams that span an agriculture gradient (0 to >70% cropland), over 10 years. We then used breakpoint regression, 2D-Kolmogorov-Smirnov test and significant zero crossings (SiZer) analyses to quantify the prevalence of nonlinearity and ecological thresholds (breakpoints) where applicable. There was a high degree of synchrony in DOM quality (r > 0.7) but not DOC (r < 0.4). The degree of synchrony was driven in part by the catchment's land use. With respect to the nonlinear analyses we found non-linearity in ~50% of bivariate datasets analyzed. Non-linearity was also driven in part by the catchment's land use. Breakpoints defined different DOM properties. Nonlinearity and synchronous behaviour in DOM are intimately linked to land use.

  17. The contribution of China’s emissions to global climate forcing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Bengang; Gasser, Thomas; Ciais, Philippe; Piao, Shilong; Tao, Shu; Balkanski, Yves; Hauglustaine, Didier; Boisier, Juan-Pablo; Chen, Zhuo; Huang, Mengtian; Li, Laurent Zhaoxin; Li, Yue; Liu, Hongyan; Liu, Junfeng; Peng, Shushi; Shen, Zehao; Sun, Zhenzhong; Wang, Rong; Wang, Tao; Yin, Guodong; Yin, Yi; Zeng, Hui; Zeng, Zhenzhong; Zhou, Feng

    2016-03-01

    Knowledge of the contribution that individual countries have made to global radiative forcing is important to the implementation of the agreement on “common but differentiated responsibilities” reached by the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. Over the past three decades, China has experienced rapid economic development, accompanied by increased emission of greenhouse gases, ozone precursors and aerosols, but the magnitude of the associated radiative forcing has remained unclear. Here we use a global coupled biogeochemistry-climate model and a chemistry and transport model to quantify China’s present-day contribution to global radiative forcing due to well-mixed greenhouse gases, short-lived atmospheric climate forcers and land-use-induced regional surface albedo changes. We find that China contributes 10% ± 4% of the current global radiative forcing. China’s relative contribution to the positive (warming) component of global radiative forcing, mainly induced by well-mixed greenhouse gases and black carbon aerosols, is 12% ± 2%. Its relative contribution to the negative (cooling) component is 15% ± 6%, dominated by the effect of sulfate and nitrate aerosols. China’s strongest contributions are 0.16 ± 0.02 watts per square metre for CO2 from fossil fuel burning, 0.13 ± 0.05 watts per square metre for CH4, -0.11 ± 0.05 watts per square metre for sulfate aerosols, and 0.09 ± 0.06 watts per square metre for black carbon aerosols. China’s eventual goal of improving air quality will result in changes in radiative forcing in the coming years: a reduction of sulfur dioxide emissions would drive a faster future warming, unless offset by larger reductions of radiative forcing from well-mixed greenhouse gases and black carbon.

  18. Easy Volcanic Aerosol (EVA v1.0: an idealized forcing generator for climate simulations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Toohey

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available Stratospheric sulfate aerosols from volcanic eruptions have a significant impact on the Earth's climate. To include the effects of volcanic eruptions in climate model simulations, the Easy Volcanic Aerosol (EVA forcing generator provides stratospheric aerosol optical properties as a function of time, latitude, height, and wavelength for a given input list of volcanic eruption attributes. EVA is based on a parameterized three-box model of stratospheric transport and simple scaling relationships used to derive mid-visible (550 nm aerosol optical depth and aerosol effective radius from stratospheric sulfate mass. Precalculated look-up tables computed from Mie theory are used to produce wavelength-dependent aerosol extinction, single scattering albedo, and scattering asymmetry factor values. The structural form of EVA and the tuning of its parameters are chosen to produce best agreement with the satellite-based reconstruction of stratospheric aerosol properties following the 1991 Pinatubo eruption, and with prior millennial-timescale forcing reconstructions, including the 1815 eruption of Tambora. EVA can be used to produce volcanic forcing for climate models which is based on recent observations and physical understanding but internally self-consistent over any timescale of choice. In addition, EVA is constructed so as to allow for easy modification of different aspects of aerosol properties, in order to be used in model experiments to help advance understanding of what aspects of the volcanic aerosol are important for the climate system.

  19. Is climate change an unforeseen, irresistible and external factor - A force majeure in marine environmental law?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saul, Roxanne; Barnes, Richard; Elliott, Michael

    2016-12-15

    Several environmental laws include provisions on natural causes or force majeure, which except States from their commitments if it can be proven that the failure to meet the commitment is due to factors outside their control. The European Union Marine Strategy Framework Directive (MSFD) has a pivotal role in managing EU marine waters. This paper analyses natural causes and force majeure provisions of the MFSD and other marine legislation, and addresses their interaction with climate change and its consequences, especially the effect on the obligation of ensuring seas are in Good Environmental Status. Climate change is an exogenic unmanaged pressure in that it emanates from outside the area being managed but in which the management authority has to respond to the consequences of climate change, such as sea level rise and temperature elevation, rather than its causes. It is suggested that a defence by a Member State of force majeure may be accepted if an event was proven to be due to an externality of control, irresistible and unforeseeable. The analysis contends that countering such a legal defence would centre on the fact that climate change is a well-accepted phenomenon, is foreseen with an accepted level of confidence and probability and is due to human actions. However, as yet, this has not been legally tested. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  20. Improved attribution of climate forcing to emissions by pollutant and sector

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shindell, D. T.

    2009-12-01

    Evaluating multi-component climate change mitigation strategies requires knowledge of the diverse direct and indirect effects of emissions. Methane, ozone and aerosols are linked through atmospheric chemistry so that emissions of a single pollutant can affect several species. I will show new calculations of atmospheric composition changes, radiative forcing, and the global warming potential (GWP) for increased emissions of tropospheric ozone and aerosol precursors in a coupled composition-climate model. The results demonstrate that gas-aerosol interactions substantially alter the relative importance of the various emissions, suggesting revisions to the GWPs used in international carbon trading. Additionally, I will present results showing how the net climate impact of particular activities depends strongly upon non-CO2 forcing agents for some sectors. These results will be highlighted by discussing the interplay between air quality emissions controls and climate for the case of emissions from coal-fired power plants. The changing balance between CO2 and air quality pollutants from coal plants may have contributed to the 20th century spatial and temporal patterns of climate change, and is likely to continue to do so as more and more plants are constructed in Asia.

  1. Comparative Study of Evolutionary Multi-objective Optimization Algorithms for a Non-linear Greenhouse Climate Control Problem

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ghoreishi, Newsha; Sørensen, Jan Corfixen; Jørgensen, Bo Nørregaard

    2015-01-01

    Non-trivial real world decision-making processes usually involve multiple parties having potentially conflicting interests over a set of issues. State-of-the-art multi-objective evolutionary algorithms (MOEA) are well known to solve this class of complex real-world problems. In this paper, we...... compare the performance of state-of-the-art multi-objective evolutionary algorithms to solve a non-linear multi-objective multi-issue optimisation problem found in Greenhouse climate control. The chosen algorithms in the study includes NSGAII, eNSGAII, eMOEA, PAES, PESAII and SPEAII. The performance...... of all aforementioned algorithms is assessed and compared using performance indicators to evaluate proximity, diversity and consistency. Our insights to this comparative study enhanced our understanding of MOEAs performance in order to solve a non-linear complex climate control problem. The empirical...

  2. Emerging patterns of simulated regional climatic changes for the 21st century due to anthropogenic forcings

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Giorgi, Filippo; Whetton, Peter H.; Jones, Richard G.

    2001-01-01

    We analyse temperature and precipitation changes for the late decades of the 21st century (with respect to present day conditions) over 23 land regions of the world from 18 recent transient, climate change experiments with coupled atmosphere-ocean General Circulation Models (AOGCMs). The analysis...... involves two different forcing scenarios and nine models, and it focuses on model agreement in the simulated regional changes for the summer and winter seasons. While to date very few conclusions have been presented on regional climatic changes, mostly limited to some broad latitudinal bands, our analysis...

  3. Air pollution and climate-forcing impacts of a global hydrogen economy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schultz, Martin G; Diehl, Thomas; Brasseur, Guy P; Zittel, Werner

    2003-10-24

    If today's surface traffic fleet were powered entirely by hydrogen fuel cell technology, anthropogenic emissions of the ozone precursors nitrogen oxide (NOx) and carbon monoxide could be reduced by up to 50%, leading to significant improvements in air quality throughout the Northern Hemisphere. Model simulations of such a scenario predict a decrease in global OH and an increased lifetime of methane, caused primarily by the reduction of the NOx emissions. The sign of the change in climate forcing caused by carbon dioxide and methane depends on the technology used to generate the molecular hydrogen. A possible rise in atmospheric hydrogen concentrations is unlikely to cause significant perturbations of the climate system.

  4. On the Representation of Ice Nucleation in Global Climate Models, and its Importance for Simulations of Climate Forcings and Feedbacks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Storelvmo, T.

    2015-12-01

    Substantial improvements have been made to the cloud microphysical schemes used in the latest generation of global climate models (GCMs), however, an outstanding weakness of these schemes lies in the arbitrariness of their tuning parameters. Despite the growing effort in improving the cloud microphysical schemes in GCMs, most of this effort has not focused on improving the ability of GCMs to accurately simulate phase partitioning in mixed-phase clouds. Getting the relative proportion of liquid droplets and ice crystals in clouds right in GCMs is critical for the representation of cloud radiative forcings and cloud-climate feedbacks. Here, we first present satellite observations of cloud phase obtained by NASA's CALIOP instrument, and report on robust statistical relationships between cloud phase and several aerosols species that have been demonstrated to act as ice nuclei (IN) in laboratory studies. We then report on results from model intercomparison projects that reveal that GCMs generally underestimate the amount of supercooled liquid in clouds. For a selected GCM (NCAR 's CAM5), we thereafter show that the underestimate can be attributed to two main factors: i) the presence of IN in the mixed-phase temperature range, and ii) the Wegener-Bergeron-Findeisen process, which converts liquid to ice once ice crystals have formed. Finally, we show that adjusting these two processes such that the GCM's cloud phase is in agreement with the observed has a substantial impact on the simulated radiative forcing due to IN perturbations, as well as on the cloud-climate feedbacks and ultimately climate sensitivity simulated by the GCM.

  5. Direct shortwave forcing of climate by anthropogenic sulfate aerosol: Sensitivity to particle size, composition, and relative humidity

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nemesure, S.; Wagener, R.; Schwartz, S.E. [Brookhaven National Lab., Upton, New York (United States)

    1996-04-01

    Recent estimates of global or hemispheric average forcing of climate by anthropogenic sulfate aerosol due to scattering of shortwave radiation are uncertain by more than a factor of 2. This paper examines the sensitivity of forcing to these microphysical properties for the purposes of obtaining a better understanding of the properties required to reduce the uncertainty in the forcing.

  6. Relevance of land forcings and feedbacks in the attribution of climate extremes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seneviratne, S. I.; Davin, E.; Greve, P.; Gudmundsson, L.; Hauser, M.; Hirschi, M.; Mueller, B.; Orlowsky, B.; Orth, R.

    2014-12-01

    Land forcings and feedbacks play an important role in the climate system, in particular for the occurrence of climate extremes. Recent investigations have for instance highlighted the impacts of soil moisture-climate interactions for the development of droughts and heat waves (e.g. Seneviratne et al. 2012, Mueller and Seneviratne 2012, Seneviratne et al. 2013, Orlowsky and Seneviratne 2013). In addition, forcing from land use and land cover changes through modified albedo or turbulent fluxes can also affect the temperature variability in summer (Davin et al. 2014). These effects are important for better understanding the relationships between climate forcing and regional climate changes, and appear relevant for a recent discrepancy between trends in global mean temperature vs hot extremes over land (Seneviratne et al. 2014). This presentation will provide an overview on the underlying processes and on possible approaches for their consideration in attribution research. References:- Davin, E.L., S.I. Seneviratne, P. Ciais, A. Olioso, T. Wang, 2014: Preferential cooling of hot extremes from cropland albedo management. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci., Published ahead of print June 23, 2014.- Mueller, B., and S.I. Seneviratne, 2012: Hot days induced by precipitation deficits at the global scale. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 109 (31), 12398-12403, doi: 10.1073/pnas.1204330109.- Orlowsky, B., and S.I. Seneviratne, 2013: Elusive drought: Uncertainty in observed trends and short- and long-term CMIP5 projections. Hydr. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 1765-1781, doi:10.5194/hess-17-1765-2013- Seneviratne, S.I., N. Nicholls, et al., 2012: Changes in climate extremes and their impacts on the natural physical environment. In: Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation [Field, C.B., et al. (eds.)]. A Special Report of Working Groups I and II of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, pp. 109-230.- Seneviratne, S.I., et al

  7. Sensitivity of the Greenland Ice Sheet to Interglacial Climate Forcing: MIS 5e Versus MIS 11

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rachmayani, Rima; Prange, Matthias; Lunt, Daniel J.; Stone, Emma J.; Schulz, Michael

    2017-11-01

    The Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) is thought to have contributed substantially to high global sea levels during the interglacials of Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 5e and 11. Geological evidence suggests that the mass loss of the GrIS was greater during the peak interglacial of MIS 11 than MIS 5e, despite a weaker boreal summer insolation. We address this conundrum by using the three-dimensional thermomechanical ice sheet model Glimmer forced by Community Climate System Model version 3 output for MIS 5e and MIS 11 interglacial time slices. Our results suggest a stronger sensitivity of the GrIS to MIS 11 climate forcing than to MIS 5e forcing. Besides stronger greenhouse gas radiative forcing, the greater MIS 11 GrIS mass loss relative to MIS 5e is attributed to a larger oceanic heat transport toward high latitudes by a stronger Atlantic meridional overturning circulation. The vigorous MIS 11 ocean overturning, in turn, is related to a stronger wind-driven salt transport from low to high latitudes promoting North Atlantic Deep Water formation. The orbital insolation forcing, which causes the ocean current anomalies, is discussed.

  8. The effect of Coriolis force on nonlinear convection in a porous medium

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. H. Riahi

    1994-01-01

    Full Text Available Nonlinear convection in a porous medium and rotating about vertical axis is studied in this paper. An upper bound to the heat flux is calculated by the method initiated first by Howard [6] for the case of infinite Prandtl number.

  9. Meeting the Radiative Forcing Targets of the Representative Concentration Pathways with Agricultural Climate Impacts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kyle, P.; Müller, C.; Calvin, K. V.; Thomson, A. M.

    2013-12-01

    The Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) have formed the basis for much of the current scientific understanding of future climate change impacts and mitigation. However, the emissions scenarios underlying the RCPs were produced by integrated assessment models that did not include impacts of future climate change on the modeled evolution of the agricultural and energy systems. Given the prominent role of bioenergy in greenhouse gas emissions mitigation, and given the importance of land-use-related emissions in determining future atmospheric CO2 concentrations, it is possible that agricultural climate impacts may cause significant changes to the means and costs of mitigating greenhouse gas emissions. This study builds on several international modeling exercises aimed at improving understanding of climate change impacts--CMIP-5 and ISI-MIP--that have generated global gridded climate impacts on yields of major agricultural crops in each of the four RCPs. We use the climate outcomes from the HadGEM2-ES climate model, and the agricultural yield outcomes from the LPJmL crop growth model to inform inputs to the GCAM integrated assessment model, allowing analysis of how agricultural climate impacts may affect the long-term global and regional strategies for achieving the greenhouse gas concentration pathways of the RCPs. Our results indicate that for this combination of models and emissions scenarios, strongly negative climate impacts on several major commodity classes--prominently cereals and oil seeds, and particularly in the high-radiative-forcing RCPs--lead to a long-term increase in cropland and therefore land-use-related CO2 emissions. All else equal, this increases the emissions mitigation burden on the rest of the system, and therefore increases total net costs of emissions mitigation. However, the future climate change impacts on C4 bioenergy crops tend to be positive, limiting the shock of agricultural climate impacts on the modeled energy supply and

  10. On nonlinear changes of the reflection coefficient of the fast wave at LH frequencies due to ponderomotive forces

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Petrzilka, V.

    1991-09-01

    The nonlinear changes of the reflection coefficient R of fast waves launched by waveguide arrays may be significant even for power densities S in the range of 3 or 4 kW/cm 2 . For the input parameters chosen in the computations, the effects of ponderomotive forces lead to an increase in plasma density in front of the grill , whereas for the slow wave the plasma density always decreases with growing S. For small plasma density in front of the grill, ponderomotive forces thus lead to the decrease of R, whereas for high plasma densities R grows with growing power density S. The heating of the edge plasma by the wave tends to weaken these changes. (Z.S.) 6 figs., 17 refs

  11. Reduction of systematic biases in regional climate downscaling through ensemble forcing

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yang, Hongwei; Wang, Bin [Chinese Academy of Sciences, LASG, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Beijing (China); Wang, Bin [University of Hawaii at Manoa, Department of Meteorology, Honolulu, Hawaii (United States); University of Hawaii at Manoa, International Pacific Research Center, Honolulu, Hawaii (United States)

    2012-02-15

    Simulations of the East Asian summer monsoon for the period of 1979-2001 were carried out using the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model forced by three reanalysis datasets (NCEP-R2, ERA-40, and JRA-25). The experiments forced by different reanalysis data exhibited remarkable differences, primarily caused by uncertainties in the lateral boundary (LB) moisture fluxes over the Bay of Bengal and the Philippine Sea. The climatological mean water vapor convergence into the model domain computed from ERA-40 was about 24% higher than that from the NCEP-R2 reanalysis. We demonstrate that using the ensemble mean of NCEP-R2, ERA-40, and JRA-25 as LB forcing considerably reduced the biases in the model simulation. The use of ensemble forcing improved the performance in simulated mean circulation and precipitation, inter-annual variation in seasonal precipitation, and daily precipitation. The model simulated precipitation was superior to that in the reanalysis in both climatology and year-to-year variations, indicating the added value of dynamic downscaling. The results suggest that models having better performance under one set of LB forcing might worsen when another set of reanalysis data is used as LB forcing. Use of ensemble mean LB forcing for assessing regional climate model performance is recommended. (orig.)

  12. The Role of Forcing and Internal Dynamics in explaining the 'Medieval Climate Anomaly'

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goossee, Hugues; Crespin, Elisabeth; Dubinkina, Svetlana; Loutre, Marie-France; Mann, Michael E.; Renssen, Hans; Shindell, Drew

    2012-01-01

    Proxy reconstructions suggest that peak global temperature during the past warm interval known as the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA, roughly 950-1250 AD) has been exceeded only during the most recent decades. To better understand the origin of this warm period, we use model simulations constrained by data assimilation establishing the spatial pattern of temperature changes that is most consistent with forcing estimates, model physics and the empirical information contained in paleoclimate proxy records. These numerical experiments demonstrate that the reconstructed spatial temperature pattern of the MCA can be explained by a simple thermodynamical response of the climate system to relatively weak changes in radiative forcing combined with a modification of the atmospheric circulation, displaying some similarities with the positive phase of the so-called Arctic Oscillation, and with northward shifts in the position of the Gulf Stream and Kuroshio currents. The mechanisms underlying the MCA are thus quite different from anthropogenic mechanisms responsible for modern global warming.

  13. The impact of international shipping on European air quality and climate forcing

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    van Aardenne, J. [European Environment Agency (EEA), Copenhagen (Denmark); Colette, A. [INERIS (France); Degraeuwe, B.; de Vlieger, I. [VITO (Belgium); Hammingh, P. [PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (Netherlands); Viana, M. [CSIC (Spain)

    2013-03-15

    This EEA Technical report provides an overview on the state of knowledge on the impact of international shipping in European waters to air quality and climate change. Based on literature review and model assessment studies information is provided on past and future emissions of air pollutants and greenhouse gases, monitoring of ship emissions, emission mitigation policies and impact on European air quality and radiative forcing. (Author)

  14. Regional aerosol emissions and temperature response: Local and remote climate impacts of regional aerosol forcing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lewinschal, Anna; Ekman, Annica; Hansson, Hans-Christen

    2017-04-01

    Emissions of anthropogenic aerosols vary substantially over the globe and the short atmospheric residence time of aerosols leads to a highly uneven radiative forcing distribution, both spatially and temporally. Regional aerosol radiative forcing can, nevertheless, exert a large influence on the temperature field away from the forcing region through changes in heat transport or the atmospheric or ocean circulation. Moreover, the global temperature response distribution to aerosol forcing may vary depending on the geographical location of the forcing. In other words, the climate sensitivity in one region can vary depending on the location of the forcing. The surface temperature distribution response to changes in sulphate aerosol forcing caused by sulphur dioxide (SO2) emission perturbations in four different regions is investigated using the Norwegian Earth System Model (NorESM). The four regions, Europe, North America, East and South Asia, are all regions with historically high aerosol emissions and are relevant from both an air-quality and climate policy perspective. All emission perturbations are defined relative to the year 2000 emissions provided for the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5. The global mean temperature change per unit SO2 emission change is similar for all four regions for similar magnitudes of emissions changes. However, the global temperature change per unit SO2 emission in simulations where regional SO2 emission were removed is substantially higher than that obtained in simulations where regional SO2 emissions were increased. Thus, the climate sensitivity to regional SO2 emissions perturbations depends on the magnitude of the emission perturbation in NorESM. On regional scale, on the other hand, the emission perturbations in different geographical locations lead to different regional temperature responses, both locally and in remote regions. The results from the model simulations are used to construct regional temperature potential

  15. The influence of cirrus cloud-radiative forcing on climate and climate sensitivity in a general circulation model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lohmann, U.; Roeckner, E.

    1994-01-01

    Six numerical experiments have been performed with a general circulation model (GCM) to study the influence of high-level cirrus clouds and global sea surface temperature (SST) perturbations on climate and climate sensitivity. The GCM used in this investigation is the third-generation ECHAM3 model developed jointly by the Max-Planck-Institute for Meteorology and the University of Hamburg. It is shown that the model is able to reproduce many features of the observed cloud-radiative forcing with considerable skill, such as the annual mean distribution, the response to seasonal forcing and the response to observed SST variations in the equatorial Pacific. In addition to a reference experiment where the cirrus emissivity is computed as a function of the cloud water content, two sensitivity experiments have been performed in which the cirrus emissivity is either set to zero everywhere above 400 hPa ('transparent cirrus') or set to one ('black cirrus'). These three experiments are repeated identically, except for prescribing a globally uniform SST warming of 4 K. (orig.)

  16. Orbital-scale nonlinear response of East Asian summer monsoon to its potential driving forces in the late Quaternary

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yi, Liang; Shi, Zhengguo; Tan, Liangcheng; Deng, Chenglong

    2018-03-01

    We conducted a statistical study to characterize the nonlinear response of the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) to its potential forcing factors over the last 260 ka on orbital timescales. We find that both variation in solar insolation and global ice volume were responsible for the nonlinear forcing of orbital-scale monsoonal variations, accounting for 80% of the total variance. Specifically, EASM records with dominated precession variance exhibit a more sensitive response to changes in solar insolation during intervals of enhanced monsoon strength, but are less sensitive during intervals of reduced monsoon strength. In the case of global ice volume with 100-ka variance, this difference is not one of sensitivity but rather a difference in baseline conditions, such as the relative areas of land and sea which affected the land-sea thermal gradient. We therefore suggest that EASM records with dominated precession variance recorded the signal of a shift in the location of the Inter-tropical Convergence Zone, and the associated changes in the incidence of torrential rainfall; while for proxies with dominated 100-ka variance, it recorded changes in the land-sea thermal gradient via its effects on non-torrential precipitation.

  17. Seasonal changes in the human alteration of fire regimes beyond the climate forcing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fréjaville, Thibaut; Curt, Thomas

    2017-03-01

    Human activities have altered fire regimes for millennia by suppressing or enhancing natural fire activity. However, whether these anthropogenic pressures on fire activity have exceeded and will surpass climate forcing still remains uncertain. We tested if, how and the extent to which seasonal fire activity in southern France has recently (1976-2009) deviated from climate-expected trends. The latter were simulated using an ensemble of detrended fire-climate models. We found both seasonal and regional contrasts in climatic effects through a mixture of drought-driven and fuel-limited fire regimes. Dry contemporary conditions chiefly drove fire frequency and burned area, although higher fire activity was related to wetter conditions in the last three years. Surprisingly, the relative importance of preceding wet conditions was higher in winter than in summer, illustrating the strong potential dependency of regional fire-climate relationships on the human use and control of fires. In the Mediterranean mountains, warm winters and springs favour extensive fires in the following dry summer. These results highlight that increasing dryness with climate change could have antagonistic effects on fire regime by leading to larger fires in summer (moisture-limited), but lower fire activity in winter (fuel-limited fire regime). Furthermore, fire trends have significantly diverged from climatic expectations, with a strong negative alteration in fire activity in the Mediterranean lowlands and the summer burned area in the mountains. In contrast, alteration of winter fire frequency in the Mediterranean and Temperate mountains has shifted from positive to negative (or null) trends during the mid-1990s, a period when fire suppression policy underwent major revisions. Our findings demonstrate that changes in land-use and fire suppression policy have probably exceeded the strength of climate change effects on changing fire regime in southern Europe, making regional predictions of future

  18. Mechanical Kerr nonlinearities due to bipolar optical forces between deformable silicon waveguides.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ma, Jing; Povinelli, Michelle L

    2011-05-23

    We use an analytical method based on the perturbation of effective index at fixed frequency to calculate optical forces between silicon waveguides. We use the method to investigate the mechanical Kerr effect in a coupled-waveguide system with bipolar forces. We find that a positive mechanical Kerr coefficient results from either an attractive or repulsive force. An enhanced mechanical Kerr coefficient several orders of magnitude larger than the intrinsic Kerr coefficient is obtained in waveguides for which the optical mode approaches the air light line, given appropriate design of the waveguide dimensions.

  19. CO2 forcing induces semi-direct effects with consequences for climate feedback interpretations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andrews, Timothy; Forster, Piers M.

    2008-02-01

    Climate forcing and feedbacks are diagnosed from seven slab-ocean GCMs for 2 × CO2 using a regression method. Results are compared to those using conventional methodologies to derive a semi-direct forcing due to tropospheric adjustment, analogous to the semi-direct effect of absorbing aerosols. All models show a cloud semi-direct effect, indicating a rapid cloud response to CO2; cloud typically decreases, enhancing the warming. Similarly there is evidence of semi-direct effects from water-vapour, lapse-rate, ice and snow. Previous estimates of climate feedbacks are unlikely to have taken these semi-direct effects into account and so misinterpret processes as feedbacks that depend only on the forcing, but not the global surface temperature. We show that the actual cloud feedback is smaller than what previous methods suggest and that a significant part of the cloud response and the large spread between previous model estimates of cloud feedback is due to the semi-direct forcing.

  20. How realistic are air quality hindcasts driven by forcings from climate model simulations?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lacressonnière, G.; Peuch, V.-H.; Arteta, J.; Josse, B.; Joly, M.; Marécal, V.; Saint Martin, D.; Déqué, M.; Watson, L.

    2012-12-01

    Predicting how European air quality could evolve over the next decades in the context of changing climate requires the use of climate models to produce results that can be averaged in a climatologically and statistically sound manner. This is a very different approach from the one that is generally used for air quality hindcasts for the present period; analysed meteorological fields are used to represent specifically each date and hour. Differences arise both from the fact that a climate model run results in a pure model output, with no influence from observations (which are useful to correct for a range of errors), and that in a "climate" set-up, simulations on a given day, month or even season cannot be related to any specific period of time (but can just be interpreted in a climatological sense). Hence, although an air quality model can be thoroughly validated in a "realistic" set-up using analysed meteorological fields, the question remains of how far its outputs can be interpreted in a "climate" set-up. For this purpose, we focus on Europe and on the current decade using three 5-yr simulations performed with the multiscale chemistry-transport model MOCAGE and use meteorological forcings either from operational meteorological analyses or from climate simulations. We investigate how statistical skill indicators compare in the different simulations, discriminating also the effects of meteorology on atmospheric fields (winds, temperature, humidity, pressure, etc.) and on the dependent emissions and deposition processes (volatile organic compound emissions, deposition velocities, etc.). Our results show in particular how differing boundary layer heights and deposition velocities affect horizontal and vertical distributions of species. When the model is driven by operational analyses, the simulation accurately reproduces the observed values of O3, NOx, SO2 and, with some bias that can be explained by the set-up, PM10. We study how the simulations driven by climate

  1. Climate forcing of an emerging pathogenic fungus across a montane multi-host community.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clare, Frances C; Halder, Julia B; Daniel, Olivia; Bielby, Jon; Semenov, Mikhail A; Jombart, Thibaut; Loyau, Adeline; Schmeller, Dirk S; Cunningham, Andrew A; Rowcliffe, Marcus; Garner, Trenton W J; Bosch, Jaime; Fisher, Matthew C

    2016-12-05

    Changes in the timings of seasonality as a result of anthropogenic climate change are predicted to occur over the coming decades. While this is expected to have widespread impacts on the dynamics of infectious disease through environmental forcing, empirical data are lacking. Here, we investigated whether seasonality, specifically the timing of spring ice-thaw, affected susceptibility to infection by the emerging pathogenic fungus Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd) across a montane community of amphibians that are suffering declines and extirpations as a consequence of this infection. We found a robust temporal association between the timing of the spring thaw and Bd infection in two host species, where we show that an early onset of spring forced high prevalences of infection. A third highly susceptible species (the midwife toad, Alytes obstetricans) maintained a high prevalence of infection independent of time of spring thaw. Our data show that perennially overwintering midwife toad larvae may act as a year-round reservoir of infection with variation in time of spring thaw determining the extent to which infection spills over into sympatric species. We used future temperature projections based on global climate models to demonstrate that the timing of spring thaw in this region will advance markedly by the 2050s, indicating that climate change will further force the severity of infection. Our findings on the effect of annual variability on multi-host infection dynamics show that the community-level impact of fungal infectious disease on biodiversity will need to be re-evaluated in the face of climate change.This article is part of the themed issue 'Tackling emerging fungal threats to animal health, food security and ecosystem resilience'. © 2016 The Authors.

  2. Coupling Satellite and Ground-Based Instruments to Map Climate Forcing by Anthropogenic Aerosols

    Science.gov (United States)

    Charlson, Robert J.; Anderson, Theodore L.; Hostetler, Chris (Technical Monitor)

    2000-01-01

    Climate forcing by anthropogenic aerosols is a significant but highly uncertain factor in global climate change. Only satellites can offer the global coverage essential to reducing this uncertainty; however, satellite measurements must be coupled with correlative, in situ measurements both to constrain the aerosol optical properties required in satellite retrieval algorithms and to provide chemical identification of aerosol sources. This grant funded the first two years of a three-year project which seeks to develop methodologies for combining spaceborne lidar with in-situ aerosol data sets to improve estimates of direct aerosol climate forcing. Progress under this two-year grant consisted in the development and deployment of a new in-situ capability for measuring aerosol 180' backscatter and the extinction-to-backscatter ratio. This new measurement capacity allows definitive lidar/in-situ comparisons and improves our ability to interpret lidar data in terms of climatically relevant quantities such as the extinction coefficient and optical depth. Measurements were made along the coast of Washington State, in Central Illinois, over the Indian Ocean, and in the Central Pacific. Thus, this research, combined with previous measurements by others, is rapidly building toward a global data set of extinction-to-backscatter ratio for key aerosol types. Such information will be critical to interpreting lidar data from the upcoming PICASSO-CENA, or P-C, satellite mission. Another aspect of this project is to investigate innovative ways to couple the lidar-satellite signal with targeted in-situ measurements toward a direct determination of aerosol forcing. This aspect is progressing in collaboration with NASA Langley's P-C lidar simulator and radiative transfer modeling by the University of Lille, France.

  3. Environmental forcing and Southern Ocean marine predator populations: effects of climate change and variability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trathan, P N; Forcada, J; Murphy, E J

    2007-12-29

    The Southern Ocean is a major component within the global ocean and climate system and potentially the location where the most rapid climate change is most likely to happen, particularly in the high-latitude polar regions. In these regions, even small temperature changes can potentially lead to major environmental perturbations. Climate change is likely to be regional and may be expressed in various ways, including alterations to climate and weather patterns across a variety of time-scales that include changes to the long interdecadal background signals such as the development of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Oscillating climate signals such as ENSO potentially provide a unique opportunity to explore how biological communities respond to change. This approach is based on the premise that biological responses to shorter-term sub-decadal climate variability signals are potentially the best predictor of biological responses over longer time-scales. Around the Southern Ocean, marine predator populations show periodicity in breeding performance and productivity, with relationships with the environment driven by physical forcing from the ENSO region in the Pacific. Wherever examined, these relationships are congruent with mid-trophic-level processes that are also correlated with environmental variability. The short-term changes to ecosystem structure and function observed during ENSO events herald potential long-term changes that may ensue following regional climate change. For example, in the South Atlantic, failure of Antarctic krill recruitment will inevitably foreshadow recruitment failures in a range of higher trophic-level marine predators. Where predator species are not able to accommodate by switching to other prey species, population-level changes will follow. The Southern Ocean, though oceanographically interconnected, is not a single ecosystem and different areas are dominated by different food webs. Where species occupy different positions in

  4. Varying Influence of Different Forcings on the Indo-Pacific Warm Pool Climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mohtadi, M.; Huang, E.; Hollstein, M.; Chen, Y.; Schefuß, E.; Rosenthal, Y.; Prange, M.; Oppo, D.; Liu, J.; Steinke, S.; Martinez-Mendez, G.; Tian, J.; Moffa-Sanchez, P.; Lückge, A.

    2017-12-01

    Proxy records of rainfall in marine archives from the eastern and western parts of the Indo-Pacific Warm Pool (IPWP) vary at precessional band and suggest a dominant role of orbital forcing by modulating monsoon rainfall and the position of the Inter Tropical Convergence Zone. Rainfall changes recorded in marine archives from the northern South China Sea reveal a more complex history. They are largely consistent with those recorded in the Chinese cave speleothems during glacial periods, but show opposite changes during interglacial peaks that coincide with strong Northern Hemisphere summer insolation maxima. During glacial periods, the establishment of massive Northern Hemisphere ice sheets and the exposure of broad continental shelves in East and Southeast Asia alter the large-scale routes and amounts of water vapor transport onto land relative to interglacials. Precipitation over China during glacials varies at precessional band and is dominated by water vapor transport from the nearby tropical and northwest Pacific, resulting in consistent changes in precipitation over large areas. In the absence of ice forcing during peak interglacials with a strong summer insolation, the low-level southerly monsoonal winds mainly of the Indian Ocean origin penetrate further landward and rainout along their path over China. Subsurface temperatures from the IPWP lack changes on glacial-interglacial timescales but follow the obliquity cycle, and suggest that obliquity-paced climate variations at mid-latitudes remotely control subsurface temperatures in the IPWP. Temperature and rainfall in the IPWP respond primarily to abrupt climate changes in the North Atlantic on millennial timescales, and to ENSO and solar forcing on interannual to decadal timescales. In summary, results from marine records reveal that the IPWP climate is sensitive to changes in spatial and temporal distribution of heat by many types of forcing, the influence of which seems to vary in time and space.

  5. Contributions of developed and developing countries to global climate forcing and surface temperature change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ward, D S; Mahowald, N M

    2014-01-01

    Understanding the relative contributions of individual countries to global climate change for different time periods is essential for mitigation strategies that seek to hold nations accountable for their historical emissions. Previous assessments of this kind have compared countries by their greenhouse gas emissions, but have yet to consider the full spectrum of the short-lived gases and aerosols. In this study, we use the radiative forcing of anthropogenic emissions of long-lived greenhouse gases, ozone precursors, aerosols, and from albedo changes from land cover change together with a simple climate model to evaluate country contributions to climate change. We assess the historical contribution of each country to global surface temperature change from anthropogenic forcing ( Δ T s ), future Δ T s through year 2100 given two different emissions scenarios, and the Δ T s that each country has committed to from past activities between 1850 and 2010 (committed Δ T s ). By including forcings in addition to the long-lived greenhouse gases the contribution of developed countries, particularly the United States, to Δ T s from 1850 to 2010 (58%) is increased compared to an assessment of CO 2 -equivalent emissions for the same time period (52%). Contributions to committed Δ T s evaluated at year 2100, dominated by long-lived greenhouse gas forcing, are more evenly split between developed and developing countries (55% and 45%, respectively). The portion of anthropogenic Δ T s attributable to developing countries is increasing, led by emissions from China and India, and we estimate that this will surpass the contribution from developed countries around year 2030. (paper)

  6. Nonlinear dynamics of a rack-pinion-rack device powered by the Casimir force.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miri, MirFaez; Nekouie, Vahid; Golestanian, Ramin

    2010-01-01

    Using the lateral Casimir force-a manifestation of the quantum fluctuations of the electromagnetic field between objects with corrugated surfaces-as the main force transduction mechanism, a nanomechanical device with rich dynamical behaviors is proposed. The device is made of two parallel racks that are moving in the same direction and a pinion in the middle that couples with both racks via the noncontact lateral Casimir force. The built-in frustration in the device causes it to be very sensitive and react dramatically to minute changes in the geometrical parameters and initial conditions of the system. The noncontact nature of the proposed device could help with the ubiquitous wear problem in nanoscale mechanical systems.

  7. Identification of the nonlinear excitation force acting on a bowed string using the dynamical responses at remote locations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Debut, V.; Antunes, J.; Delaune, X.

    2010-01-01

    For achieving realistic numerical simulations of bowed string instruments, based on physical modeling, a good understanding of the actual friction interaction phenomena is of great importance. Most work published in the field including our own has assumed that bow/string frictional forces behave according to the classical Coulomb stick-slip model, with an empirical velocity-dependent sliding friction coefficient. Indeed, the basic self-excited string motions (such as the Helmholtz regime) are well captured using such friction model. However, recent work has shown that the tribological behavior of the bow/string rosin interface is rather complex, therefore the basic velocity-dependent Coulomb model may be an over-simplistic representation of the friction force. More specifically, it was suggested that a more accurate model of the interaction force can be achieved by coupling the system dynamical equations with a thermal model which encapsulates the complex interface phenomena. In spite of the interesting work performed by Askenfelt, a direct measurement of the actual dynamical friction forces without disturbing the string motion is quite difficult. Therefore, in this work we develop a modal-based identification technique making use of inverse methods and optimization techniques, which enables the identification of the interface force, as well as the string self-excited motion, from the dynamical reactions measured at the string end supports. The method gives convincing results using simulated data originated from nonlinear computations of a bowed string. Furthermore, in cases where the force identifications are very sensitive to errors in the transfer function modal parameters, we suggest a method to improve the modal frequencies used for the identifications. Preliminary experimental results obtained using a basic bowing device, by which the string is excited with the stick of the bow, are then presented. Our identifications, from the two dynamical string reactions

  8. Nonlinear Forced Vibration of a Viscoelastic Buckled Beam with 2 : 1 Internal Resonance

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Liu-Yang Xiong

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Nonlinear dynamics of a viscoelastic buckled beam subjected to primary resonance in the presence of internal resonance is investigated for the first time. For appropriate choice of system parameters, the natural frequency of the second mode is approximately twice that of the first providing the condition for 2 : 1 internal resonance. The ordinary differential equations of the two mode shapes are established using the Galerkin method. The problem is replaced by two coupled second-order differential equations with quadratic and cubic nonlinearities. The multiple scales method is applied to derive the modulation-phase equations. Steady-state solutions of the system as well as their stability are examined. The frequency-amplitude curves exhibit the steady-state response in the directly excited and indirectly excited modes due to modal interaction. The double-jump, the saturation phenomenon, and the nonperiodic region phenomena are observed illustrating the influence of internal resonance. The validity range of the analytical approximations is assessed by comparing the analytical approximate results with a numerical solution by the Runge-Kutta method. The unstable regions in the internal resonance are explored via numerical simulations.

  9. Timing and climate forcing of volcanic eruptions for the past 2,500 years.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sigl, M; Winstrup, M; McConnell, J R; Welten, K C; Plunkett, G; Ludlow, F; Büntgen, U; Caffee, M; Chellman, N; Dahl-Jensen, D; Fischer, H; Kipfstuhl, S; Kostick, C; Maselli, O J; Mekhaldi, F; Mulvaney, R; Muscheler, R; Pasteris, D R; Pilcher, J R; Salzer, M; Schüpbach, S; Steffensen, J P; Vinther, B M; Woodruff, T E

    2015-07-30

    Volcanic eruptions contribute to climate variability, but quantifying these contributions has been limited by inconsistencies in the timing of atmospheric volcanic aerosol loading determined from ice cores and subsequent cooling from climate proxies such as tree rings. Here we resolve these inconsistencies and show that large eruptions in the tropics and high latitudes were primary drivers of interannual-to-decadal temperature variability in the Northern Hemisphere during the past 2,500 years. Our results are based on new records of atmospheric aerosol loading developed from high-resolution, multi-parameter measurements from an array of Greenland and Antarctic ice cores as well as distinctive age markers to constrain chronologies. Overall, cooling was proportional to the magnitude of volcanic forcing and persisted for up to ten years after some of the largest eruptive episodes. Our revised timescale more firmly implicates volcanic eruptions as catalysts in the major sixth-century pandemics, famines, and socioeconomic disruptions in Eurasia and Mesoamerica while allowing multi-millennium quantification of climate response to volcanic forcing.

  10. Bubbling route to strange nonchaotic attractor in a nonlinear series LCR circuit with a nonsinusoidal force.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Senthilkumar, D V; Srinivasan, K; Thamilmaran, K; Lakshmanan, M

    2008-12-01

    We identify an unconventional route to the creation of a strange nonchaotic attractor (SNA) in a quasiperiodically forced electronic circuit with a nonsinusoidal (square wave) force as one of the quasiperiodic forces through numerical and experimental studies. We find that bubbles appear in the strands of the quasiperiodic attractor due to the instability induced by the additional square-wave-type force. The bubbles then enlarge and get increasingly wrinkled as a function of the control parameter. Finally, the bubbles get extremely wrinkled (while the remaining parts of the strands of the torus remain largely unaffected) resulting in the creation of the SNA; we term this the bubbling route to the SNA. We characterize and confirm this creation from both experimental and numerical data using maximal Lyapunov exponents and their variance, Poincaré maps, Fourier amplitude spectra, and spectral distribution functions. We also strongly confirm the creation of a SNA via the bubbling route by the distribution of the finite-time Lyapunov exponents.

  11. Two-Polarisation Physical Model of Bowed Strings with Nonlinear Contact and Friction Forces, and Application to Gesture-Based Sound Synthesis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Charlotte Desvages

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available Recent bowed string sound synthesis has relied on physical modelling techniques; the achievable realism and flexibility of gestural control are appealing, and the heavier computational cost becomes less significant as technology improves. A bowed string sound synthesis algorithm is designed, by simulating two-polarisation string motion, discretising the partial differential equations governing the string’s behaviour with the finite difference method. A globally energy balanced scheme is used, as a guarantee of numerical stability under highly nonlinear conditions. In one polarisation, a nonlinear contact model is used for the normal forces exerted by the dynamic bow hair, left hand fingers, and fingerboard. In the other polarisation, a force-velocity friction curve is used for the resulting tangential forces. The scheme update requires the solution of two nonlinear vector equations. The dynamic input parameters allow for simulating a wide range of gestures; some typical bow and left hand gestures are presented, along with synthetic sound and video demonstrations.

  12. Stratospheric sulfur and its implications for radiative forcing simulated by the chemistry climate model EMAC.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brühl, C; Lelieveld, J; Tost, H; Höpfner, M; Glatthor, N

    2015-03-16

    Multiyear simulations with the atmospheric chemistry general circulation model EMAC with a microphysical modal aerosol module at high vertical resolution demonstrate that the sulfur gases COS and SO 2 , the latter from low-latitude and midlatitude volcanic eruptions, predominantly control the formation of stratospheric aerosol. Marine dimethyl sulfide (DMS) and other SO 2 sources, including strong anthropogenic emissions in China, are found to play a minor role except in the lowermost stratosphere. Estimates of volcanic SO 2 emissions are based on satellite observations using Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer and Ozone Monitoring Instrument for total injected mass and Michelson Interferometer for Passive Atmospheric Sounding (MIPAS) on Envisat or Stratospheric Aerosol and Gases Experiment for the spatial distribution. The 10 year SO 2 and COS data set of MIPAS is also used for model evaluation. The calculated radiative forcing of stratospheric background aerosol including sulfate from COS and small contributions by DMS oxidation, and organic aerosol from biomass burning, is about 0.07W/m 2 . For stratospheric sulfate aerosol from medium and small volcanic eruptions between 2005 and 2011 a global radiative forcing up to 0.2W/m 2 is calculated, moderating climate warming, while for the major Pinatubo eruption the simulated forcing reaches 5W/m 2 , leading to temporary climate cooling. The Pinatubo simulation demonstrates the importance of radiative feedback on dynamics, e.g., enhanced tropical upwelling, for large volcanic eruptions.

  13. 75 FR 43944 - Defense Science Board; Task Force on Trends and Implications of Climate Change for National and...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-27

    ... DEPARTMENT OF DEFENSE Office of the Secretary Defense Science Board; Task Force on Trends and Implications of Climate Change for National and International Security AGENCY: Department of Defense (DoD... and Implications of Climate Change for National and International Security will meet in closed session...

  14. 75 FR 34438 - Defense Science Board Task Force on Trends and Implications of Climate Change for National and...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-06-17

    ... DEPARTMENT OF DEFENSE Office of the Secretary Defense Science Board Task Force on Trends and Implications of Climate Change for National and International Security AGENCY: Department of Defense (DoD... and Implications of Climate Change for National and International Security will meet in closed session...

  15. Characterizing the nonlinear internal wave climate in the northeastern South China Sea

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. R. Ramp

    2010-09-01

    Full Text Available Four oceanographic moorings were deployed in the South China Sea from April 2005 to June 2006 along a transect extending from the Batanes Province, Philippines in the Luzon Strait to just north of Dong-Sha Island on the Chinese continental slope. The purpose of the array was to observe and track large-amplitude nonlinear internal waves (NIWs from generation to shoaling over the course of one full year. The basin and slope moorings observed velocity, temperature (T and salinity (S at 1–3 min intervals to observe the waves without aliasing. The Luzon mooring observed velocity at 15 min and T and S at 3 min, primarily to resolve the tidal forcing in the strait.

    The observed waves travelled WNW towards 282–288 degrees with little variation. They were predominantly mode-1 waves with orbital velocities exceeding 100 cm s−1 and thermal displacements exceeding 100 m. Consistent with earlier authors, two types of waves were observed: the a-waves arrived diurnally and had a rank-ordered packet structure. The b-waves arrived in between, about an hour later each day similar to the pattern of the semi-diurnal tide. The b-waves were weaker than the a-waves, usually consisted of just one large wave, and were often absent in the deep basin, appearing as NIW only upon reaching the continental slope. The propagation speed of both types of waves was 323±31 cm s−1 in the deep basin and 222±18 cm s−1 over the continental slope. These speeds were 11–20% faster than the theoretical mode-1 wave speeds for the observed stratification, roughly consistent with the additional contribution from the nonlinear wave amplitude. The observed waves were clustered around the time of the spring tide at the presumed generation site in the Luzon Strait, and no waves were observed at neap tide. A remarkable feature was the distinct lack of waves during the winter months, December 2005 through February

  16. Heat and mass transfer of Williamson nanofluid flow yield by an inclined Lorentz force over a nonlinear stretching sheet

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mair Khan

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available The present analysis is devoted to explore the computational solution of the problem addressing the variable viscosity and inclined Lorentz force effects on Williamson nanofluid over a stretching sheet. Variable viscosity is assumed to vary as a linear function of temperature. The basic mathematical modelled problem i.e. system of PDE’s is converted nonlinear into ODE’s via applying suitable transformations. Computational solutions of the problem is also achieved via efficient numerical technique shooting. Characteristics of controlling parameters i.e. stretching index, inclined angle, Hartmann number, Weissenberg number, variable viscosity parameter, mixed convention parameter, Brownian motion parameter, Prandtl number, Lewis number, thermophoresis parameter and chemical reactive species on concentration, temperature and velocity gradient. Additionally, friction factor coefficient, Nusselt number and Sherwood number are describe with the help of graphics as well as tables verses flow controlling parameters. Keywords: Williamson nanofluid, Temperature depended viscosity, Inclined magnetic field, Mixed convection, Chemical reactive species, Variable viscosity, Shooting method

  17. Heat and mass transfer of Williamson nanofluid flow yield by an inclined Lorentz force over a nonlinear stretching sheet

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khan, Mair; Malik, M. Y.; Salahuddin, T.; Hussian, Arif.

    2018-03-01

    The present analysis is devoted to explore the computational solution of the problem addressing the variable viscosity and inclined Lorentz force effects on Williamson nanofluid over a stretching sheet. Variable viscosity is assumed to vary as a linear function of temperature. The basic mathematical modelled problem i.e. system of PDE's is converted nonlinear into ODE's via applying suitable transformations. Computational solutions of the problem is also achieved via efficient numerical technique shooting. Characteristics of controlling parameters i.e. stretching index, inclined angle, Hartmann number, Weissenberg number, variable viscosity parameter, mixed convention parameter, Brownian motion parameter, Prandtl number, Lewis number, thermophoresis parameter and chemical reactive species on concentration, temperature and velocity gradient. Additionally, friction factor coefficient, Nusselt number and Sherwood number are describe with the help of graphics as well as tables verses flow controlling parameters.

  18. Response of air-sea carbon fluxes and climate to orbital forcing changes in the Community Climate System Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jochum, M.; Peacock, S.; Moore, K.; Lindsay, K.

    2010-07-01

    A global general circulation model coupled to an ocean ecosystem model is used to quantify the response of carbon fluxes and climate to changes in orbital forcing. Compared to the present-day simulation, the simulation with the Earth's orbital parameters from 115,000 years ago features significantly cooler northern high latitudes but only moderately cooler southern high latitudes. This asymmetry is explained by a 30% reduction of the strength of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation that is caused by an increased Arctic sea ice export and a resulting freshening of the North Atlantic. The strong northern high-latitude cooling and the direct insolation induced tropical warming lead to global shifts in precipitation and winds to the order of 10%-20%. These climate shifts lead to regional differences in air-sea carbon fluxes of the same order. However, the differences in global net air-sea carbon fluxes are small, which is due to several effects, two of which stand out: first, colder sea surface temperature leads to a more effective solubility pump but also to increased sea ice concentration which blocks air-sea exchange, and second, the weakening of Southern Ocean winds that is predicted by some idealized studies occurs only in part of the basin, and is compensated by stronger winds in other parts.

  19. Force majeure: Will climate change affect our ability to attain Good Environmental Status for marine biodiversity?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Elliott, Michael; Borja, Ángel; McQuatters-Gollop, Abigail; Mazik, Krysia; Birchenough, Silvana; Andersen, Jesper H; Painting, Suzanne; Peck, Myron

    2015-06-15

    The EU Marine Strategy Framework Directive (MSFD) requires that Good Environmental Status (GEnS), is achieved for European seas by 2020. These may deviate from GEnS, its 11 Descriptors, targets and baselines, due to endogenic managed pressures (from activities within an area) and externally due to exogenic unmanaged pressures (e.g. climate change). Conceptual models detail the likely or perceived changes expected on marine biodiversity and GEnS Descriptors in the light of climate change. We emphasise that marine management has to accommodate 'shifting baselines' caused by climate change particularly during GEnS monitoring, assessment and management and 'unbounded boundaries' given the migration and dispersal of highly-mobile species. We suggest climate change may prevent GEnS being met, but Member States may rebut legal challenges by claiming that this is outside its control, force majeure or due to 'natural causes' (Article 14 of the MSFD). The analysis is relevant to management of other global seas. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  20. Northern Hemisphere Winter Climate Response to Greenhouse Gas, Ozone, Solar and Volcanic Forcing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shindell, Drew T.; Schmidt, Gavin A.; Miller, Ron L.; Rind, David; Hansen, James E. (Technical Monitor)

    2001-01-01

    The Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) climate/middle atmosphere model has been used to study the impacts of increasing greenhouse gases, polar ozone depletion, volcanic eruptions, and solar cycle variability. We focus on the projection of the induced responses onto Northern Hemisphere winter surface climate. Changes in the model's surface climate take place largely through enhancement of existing variability patterns, with greenhouse gases, polar ozone depletion and volcanic eruptions primarily affecting the Arctic Oscillation (AO) pattern. Perturbations descend from the stratosphere to the surface in the model by altering the propagation of planetary waves coming up from the surface, in accord with observational evidence. Models lacking realistic stratospheric dynamics fail to capture these wave flux changes. The results support the conclusion that the stratosphere plays a crucial role in recent AO trends. We show that in our climate model, while ozone depletion has a significant effect, greenhouse gas forcing is the only one capable of causing the large, sustained increase in the AO observed over recent decades. This suggests that the AO trend, and a concurrent strengthening of the stratospheric vortex over the Arctic, are very likely anthropogenic in origin.

  1. Climate extremes, land-climate feedbacks and land-use forcing at 1.5°C.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seneviratne, Sonia I; Wartenburger, Richard; Guillod, Benoit P; Hirsch, Annette L; Vogel, Martha M; Brovkin, Victor; van Vuuren, Detlef P; Schaller, Nathalie; Boysen, Lena; Calvin, Katherine V; Doelman, Jonathan; Greve, Peter; Havlik, Petr; Humpenöder, Florian; Krisztin, Tamas; Mitchell, Daniel; Popp, Alexander; Riahi, Keywan; Rogelj, Joeri; Schleussner, Carl-Friedrich; Sillmann, Jana; Stehfest, Elke

    2018-05-13

    This article investigates projected changes in temperature and water cycle extremes at 1.5°C of global warming, and highlights the role of land processes and land-use changes (LUCs) for these projections. We provide new comparisons of changes in climate at 1.5°C versus 2°C based on empirical sampling analyses of transient simulations versus simulations from the 'Half a degree Additional warming, Prognosis and Projected Impacts' (HAPPI) multi-model experiment. The two approaches yield similar overall results regarding changes in climate extremes on land, and reveal a substantial difference in the occurrence of regional extremes at 1.5°C versus 2°C. Land processes mediated through soil moisture feedbacks and land-use forcing play a major role for projected changes in extremes at 1.5°C in most mid-latitude regions, including densely populated areas in North America, Europe and Asia. This has important implications for low-emissions scenarios derived from integrated assessment models (IAMs), which include major LUCs in ambitious mitigation pathways (e.g. associated with increased bioenergy use), but are also shown to differ in the simulated LUC patterns. Biogeophysical effects from LUCs are not considered in the development of IAM scenarios, but play an important role for projected regional changes in climate extremes, and are thus of high relevance for sustainable development pathways.This article is part of the theme issue 'The Paris Agreement: understanding the physical and social challenges for a warming world of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels'. © 2018 The Authors.

  2. Climate extremes, land–climate feedbacks and land-use forcing at 1.5°C

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wartenburger, Richard; Guillod, Benoit P.; Hirsch, Annette L.; Vogel, Martha M.; Brovkin, Victor; van Vuuren, Detlef P.; Schaller, Nathalie; Boysen, Lena; Calvin, Katherine V.; Doelman, Jonathan; Greve, Peter; Havlik, Petr; Humpenöder, Florian; Krisztin, Tamas; Mitchell, Daniel; Popp, Alexander; Riahi, Keywan; Rogelj, Joeri; Schleussner, Carl-Friedrich; Sillmann, Jana; Stehfest, Elke

    2018-01-01

    This article investigates projected changes in temperature and water cycle extremes at 1.5°C of global warming, and highlights the role of land processes and land-use changes (LUCs) for these projections. We provide new comparisons of changes in climate at 1.5°C versus 2°C based on empirical sampling analyses of transient simulations versus simulations from the ‘Half a degree Additional warming, Prognosis and Projected Impacts’ (HAPPI) multi-model experiment. The two approaches yield similar overall results regarding changes in climate extremes on land, and reveal a substantial difference in the occurrence of regional extremes at 1.5°C versus 2°C. Land processes mediated through soil moisture feedbacks and land-use forcing play a major role for projected changes in extremes at 1.5°C in most mid-latitude regions, including densely populated areas in North America, Europe and Asia. This has important implications for low-emissions scenarios derived from integrated assessment models (IAMs), which include major LUCs in ambitious mitigation pathways (e.g. associated with increased bioenergy use), but are also shown to differ in the simulated LUC patterns. Biogeophysical effects from LUCs are not considered in the development of IAM scenarios, but play an important role for projected regional changes in climate extremes, and are thus of high relevance for sustainable development pathways. This article is part of the theme issue ‘The Paris Agreement: understanding the physical and social challenges for a warming world of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels'. PMID:29610382

  3. Climate extremes, land-climate feedbacks and land-use forcing at 1.5°C

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seneviratne, Sonia I.; Wartenburger, Richard; Guillod, Benoit P.; Hirsch, Annette L.; Vogel, Martha M.; Brovkin, Victor; van Vuuren, Detlef P.; Schaller, Nathalie; Boysen, Lena; Calvin, Katherine V.; Doelman, Jonathan; Greve, Peter; Havlik, Petr; Humpenöder, Florian; Krisztin, Tamas; Mitchell, Daniel; Popp, Alexander; Riahi, Keywan; Rogelj, Joeri; Schleussner, Carl-Friedrich; Sillmann, Jana; Stehfest, Elke

    2018-05-01

    This article investigates projected changes in temperature and water cycle extremes at 1.5°C of global warming, and highlights the role of land processes and land-use changes (LUCs) for these projections. We provide new comparisons of changes in climate at 1.5°C versus 2°C based on empirical sampling analyses of transient simulations versus simulations from the `Half a degree Additional warming, Prognosis and Projected Impacts' (HAPPI) multi-model experiment. The two approaches yield similar overall results regarding changes in climate extremes on land, and reveal a substantial difference in the occurrence of regional extremes at 1.5°C versus 2°C. Land processes mediated through soil moisture feedbacks and land-use forcing play a major role for projected changes in extremes at 1.5°C in most mid-latitude regions, including densely populated areas in North America, Europe and Asia. This has important implications for low-emissions scenarios derived from integrated assessment models (IAMs), which include major LUCs in ambitious mitigation pathways (e.g. associated with increased bioenergy use), but are also shown to differ in the simulated LUC patterns. Biogeophysical effects from LUCs are not considered in the development of IAM scenarios, but play an important role for projected regional changes in climate extremes, and are thus of high relevance for sustainable development pathways. This article is part of the theme issue `The Paris Agreement: understanding the physical and social challenges for a warming world of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels'.

  4. A double-integration hypothesis to explain ocean ecosystem response to climate forcing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Di Lorenzo, Emanuele; Ohman, Mark D.

    2013-01-01

    Long-term time series of marine ecological indicators often are characterized by large-amplitude state transitions that can persist for decades. Understanding the significance of these variations depends critically on the underlying hypotheses characterizing expected natural variability. Using a linear autoregressive model in combination with long-term zooplankton observations off the California coast, we show that cumulative integrations of white-noise atmospheric forcing can generate marine population responses that are characterized by strong transitions and prolonged apparent state changes. This model provides a baseline hypothesis for explaining ecosystem variability and for interpreting the significance of abrupt responses and climate change signatures in marine ecosystems. PMID:23341628

  5. 20th-century industrial black carbon emissions altered Arctic climate forcing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McConnell, Joseph R; Edwards, Ross; Kok, Gregory L; Flanner, Mark G; Zender, Charles S; Saltzman, Eric S; Banta, J Ryan; Pasteris, Daniel R; Carter, Megan M; Kahl, Jonathan D W

    2007-09-07

    Black carbon (BC) from biomass and fossil fuel combustion alters chemical and physical properties of the atmosphere and snow albedo, yet little is known about its emission or deposition histories. Measurements of BC, vanillic acid, and non-sea-salt sulfur in ice cores indicate that sources and concentrations of BC in Greenland precipitation varied greatly since 1788 as a result of boreal forest fires and industrial activities. Beginning about 1850, industrial emissions resulted in a sevenfold increase in ice-core BC concentrations, with most change occurring in winter. BC concentrations after about 1951 were lower but increasing. At its maximum from 1906 to 1910, estimated surface climate forcing in early summer from BC in Arctic snow was about 3 watts per square meter, which is eight times the typical preindustrial forcing value.

  6. Analytical treatment of the nonlinear electron cloud effect and the combined effects with beam-beam and space charge nonlinear forces in storage rings

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gao Jie

    2009-01-01

    In this paper we treat first some nonlinear beam dynamics problems in storage rings, such as beam dynamic apertures due to magnetic multipoles, wiggles, beam-beam effects, nonlinear space charge effect, and then nonlinear electron cloud effect combined with beam-beam and space charge effects, analytically. This analytical treatment is applied to BEPC II. The corresponding analytical expressions developed in this paper are useful both in understanding the physics behind these problems and also in making practical quick hand estimations. (author)

  7. Future local and remote influences on Mediterranean ozone air quality and climate forcing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arnold, Steve; Martin, Maria Val; Emmons, Louisa; Rap, Alex; Heald, Colette; Lamarque, Jean-Francois; Tilmes, Simone

    2013-04-01

    The Mediterranean region is expected to display large increases in population over the coming decades, and to exhibit strong sensitivity to projected climate change, with increasing frequency of extreme summer temperatures and decreases in precipitation. Understanding of how these changes will affect atmospheric composition in the region is limited. The eastern Mediterranean basin has been shown to exhibit a pronounced summertime local maximum in tropospheric ozone, which impacts both local air quality and the atmospheric radiation balance. In summer, the region is subject to import of pollution from Northern Europe in the boundary layer and lower troposphere, from North American sources in the large-scale westerly flow of the free mid and upper-troposphere, as well as import of pollution lofted in the Asian monsoon and carried west to the eastern Mediterranean in anticyclonic flow in the upper troposphere over north Africa. In addition, interactions with the land-surface through biogenic emission sources and dry deposition play important roles in the Mediterranean ozone budget. Here we use the NCAR Community Earth System Model (CESM) to investigate how tropospheric ozone in the Mediterranean region responds to climate, land surface and global emissions changes between present day and 2050. We simulate climate and atmospheric composition for the year 2050, based on greenhouse gas abundances, trace gas and aerosol emissions and land cover and use from two representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios (RCP4.5 & RCP8.5), designed for use by the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5(CMIP5) experiments in support of the IPCC. By comparing these simulations with a present-day scenario, we investigate the effects of predicted changes in climate and emissions on air quality and climate forcing over the Mediterranean region. The simulations suggest decreases in boundary layer ozone and sulfate aerosol throughout the tropospheric column over the Mediterranean

  8. A statistical mechanical approach for the computation of the climatic response to general forcings

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V. Lucarini

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available The climate belongs to the class of non-equilibrium forced and dissipative systems, for which most results of quasi-equilibrium statistical mechanics, including the fluctuation-dissipation theorem, do not apply. In this paper we show for the first time how the Ruelle linear response theory, developed for studying rigorously the impact of perturbations on general observables of non-equilibrium statistical mechanical systems, can be applied with great success to analyze the climatic response to general forcings. The crucial value of the Ruelle theory lies in the fact that it allows to compute the response of the system in terms of expectation values of explicit and computable functions of the phase space averaged over the invariant measure of the unperturbed state. We choose as test bed a classical version of the Lorenz 96 model, which, in spite of its simplicity, has a well-recognized prototypical value as it is a spatially extended one-dimensional model and presents the basic ingredients, such as dissipation, advection and the presence of an external forcing, of the actual atmosphere. We recapitulate the main aspects of the general response theory and propose some new general results. We then analyze the frequency dependence of the response of both local and global observables to perturbations having localized as well as global spatial patterns. We derive analytically several properties of the corresponding susceptibilities, such as asymptotic behavior, validity of Kramers-Kronig relations, and sum rules, whose main ingredient is the causality principle. We show that all the coefficients of the leading asymptotic expansions as well as the integral constraints can be written as linear function of parameters that describe the unperturbed properties of the system, such as its average energy. Some newly obtained empirical closure equations for such parameters allow to define such properties as an explicit function of the unperturbed forcing

  9. Synchronous fire activity in the tropical high Andes: an indication of regional climate forcing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Román-Cuesta, R M; Carmona-Moreno, C; Lizcano, G; New, M; Silman, M; Knoke, T; Malhi, Y; Oliveras, I; Asbjornsen, H; Vuille, M

    2014-06-01

    Global climate models suggest enhanced warming of the tropical mid and upper troposphere, with larger temperature rise rates at higher elevations. Changes in fire activity are amongst the most significant ecological consequences of rising temperatures and changing hydrological properties in mountainous ecosystems, and there is a global evidence of increased fire activity with elevation. Whilst fire research has become popular in the tropical lowlands, much less is known of the tropical high Andean region (>2000 masl, from Colombia to Bolivia). This study examines fire trends in the high Andes for three ecosystems, the Puna, the Paramo and the Yungas, for the period 1982-2006. We pose three questions: (i) is there an increased fire response with elevation? (ii) does the El Niño- Southern Oscillation control fire activity in this region? (iii) are the observed fire trends human driven (e.g., human practices and their effects on fuel build-up) or climate driven? We did not find evidence of increased fire activity with elevation but, instead, a quasicyclic and synchronous fire response in Ecuador, Peru and Bolivia, suggesting the influence of high-frequency climate forcing on fire responses on a subcontinental scale, in the high Andes. ENSO variability did not show a significant relation to fire activity for these three countries, partly because ENSO variability did not significantly relate to precipitation extremes, although it strongly did to temperature extremes. Whilst ENSO did not individually lead the observed regional fire trends, our results suggest a climate influence on fire activity, mainly through a sawtooth pattern of precipitation (increased rainfall before fire-peak seasons (t-1) followed by drought spells and unusual low temperatures (t0), which is particularly common where fire is carried by low fuel loads (e.g., grasslands and fine fuel). This climatic sawtooth appeared as the main driver of fire trends, above local human influences and fuel build

  10. Periodic Forcing of Inhibition-Stabilized Networks: Nonlinear Resonances and Phase-Amplitude Coupling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Veltz, Romain; Sejnowski, Terrence J.

    2016-01-01

    Inhibition-stabilized networks (ISNs) are neural architectures with strong positive feedback among pyramidal neurons balanced by strong negative feedback from inhibitory interneurons, a circuit element found in the hippocampus and the primary visual cortex. In their working regime, ISNs produce damped oscillations in the γ-range in response to inputs to the inhibitory population. In order to understand the properties of interconnected ISNs, we investigated periodic forcing of ISNs. We show that ISNs can be excited over a range of frequencies and derive properties of the resonance peaks. In particular, we studied the phase-locked solutions, the torus solutions, and the resonance peaks. Periodically forced ISNs respond with (possibly multistable) phase-locked activity, whereas networks with sustained intrinsic oscillations respond more dynamically to periodic inputs with tori. Hence, the dynamics are surprisingly rich, and phase effects alone do not adequately describe the network response. This strengthens the importance of phaseamplitude coupling as opposed to phase-phase coupling in providing multiple frequencies for multiplexing and routing information. PMID:26496044

  11. Radiative forcing estimates of sulfate aerosol in coupled climate-chemistry models with emphasis on the role of the temporal variability

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. Déandreis

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available This paper describes the impact on the sulfate aerosol radiative effects of coupling the radiative code of a global circulation model with a chemistry-aerosol module. With this coupling, temporal variations of sulfate aerosol concentrations influence the estimate of aerosol radiative impacts. Effects of this coupling have been assessed on net fluxes, radiative forcing and temperature for the direct and first indirect effects of sulfate.

    The direct effect respond almost linearly to rapid changes in concentrations whereas the first indirect effect shows a strong non-linearity. In particular, sulfate temporal variability causes a modification of the short wave net fluxes at the top of the atmosphere of +0.24 and +0.22 W m−2 for the present and preindustrial periods, respectively. This change is small compared to the value of the net flux at the top of the atmosphere (about 240 W m−2. The effect is more important in regions with low-level clouds and intermediate sulfate aerosol concentrations (from 0.1 to 0.8 μg (SO4 m−3 in our model.

    The computation of the aerosol direct radiative forcing is quite straightforward and the temporal variability has little effect on its mean value. In contrast, quantifying the first indirect radiative forcing requires tackling technical issues first. We show that the preindustrial sulfate concentrations have to be calculated with the same meteorological trajectory used for computing the present ones. If this condition is not satisfied, it introduces an error on the estimation of the first indirect radiative forcing. Solutions are proposed to assess radiative forcing properly. In the reference method, the coupling between chemistry and climate results in a global average increase of 8% in the first indirect radiative forcing. This change reaches 50% in the most sensitive regions. However, the reference method is not suited to run long climate

  12. Non-linear finite element model to assess the effect of tendon forces on the foot-ankle complex.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morales-Orcajo, Enrique; Souza, Thales R; Bayod, Javier; Barbosa de Las Casas, Estevam

    2017-11-01

    A three-dimensional foot finite element model with actual geometry and non-linear behavior of tendons is presented. The model is intended for analysis of the lower limb tendon forces effect in the inner foot structure. The geometry of the model was obtained from computational tomographies and magnetic resonance images. Tendon tissue was characterized with the first order Ogden material model based on experimental data from human foot tendons. Kinetic data was employed to set the load conditions. After model validation, a force sensitivity study of the five major foot extrinsic tendons was conducted to evaluate the function of each tendon. A synergic work of the inversion-eversion tendons was predicted. Pulling from a peroneus or tibialis tendon stressed the antagonist tendons while reducing the stress in the agonist. Similar paired action was predicted for the Achilles tendon with the tibialis anterior. This behavior explains the complex control motion performed by the foot. Furthermore, the stress state at the plantar fascia, the talocrural joint cartilage, the plantar soft tissue and the tendons were estimated in the early and late midstance phase of walking. These estimations will help in the understanding of the functional role of the extrinsic muscle-tendon-units in foot pronation-supination. Copyright © 2017 IPEM. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  13. MODELING MAGNETIC FIELD STRUCTURE OF A SOLAR ACTIVE REGION CORONA USING NONLINEAR FORCE-FREE FIELDS IN SPHERICAL GEOMETRY

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Guo, Y.; Ding, M. D.; Liu, Y.; Sun, X. D.; DeRosa, M. L.; Wiegelmann, T.

    2012-01-01

    We test a nonlinear force-free field (NLFFF) optimization code in spherical geometry using an analytical solution from Low and Lou. Several tests are run, ranging from idealized cases where exact vector field data are provided on all boundaries, to cases where noisy vector data are provided on only the lower boundary (approximating the solar problem). Analytical tests also show that the NLFFF code in the spherical geometry performs better than that in the Cartesian one when the field of view of the bottom boundary is large, say, 20° × 20°. Additionally, we apply the NLFFF model to an active region observed by the Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager on board the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) both before and after an M8.7 flare. For each observation time, we initialize the models using potential field source surface (PFSS) extrapolations based on either a synoptic chart or a flux-dispersal model, and compare the resulting NLFFF models. The results show that NLFFF extrapolations using the flux-dispersal model as the boundary condition have slightly lower, therefore better, force-free, and divergence-free metrics, and contain larger free magnetic energy. By comparing the extrapolated magnetic field lines with the extreme ultraviolet (EUV) observations by the Atmospheric Imaging Assembly on board SDO, we find that the NLFFF performs better than the PFSS not only for the core field of the flare productive region, but also for large EUV loops higher than 50 Mm.

  14. GUIDING NONLINEAR FORCE-FREE MODELING USING CORONAL OBSERVATIONS: FIRST RESULTS USING A QUASI-GRAD-RUBIN SCHEME

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Malanushenko, A. [Department of Physics, Montana State University, Bozeman, MT (United States); Schrijver, C. J.; DeRosa, M. L. [Lockheed Martin Advanced Technology Center, Palo Alto, CA (United States); Wheatland, M. S.; Gilchrist, S. A. [Sydney Institute for Astronomy, School of Physics, University of Sydney (Australia)

    2012-09-10

    At present, many models of the coronal magnetic field rely on photospheric vector magnetograms, but these data have been shown to be problematic as the sole boundary information for nonlinear force-free field extrapolations. Magnetic fields in the corona manifest themselves in high-energy images (X-rays and EUV) in the shapes of coronal loops, providing an additional constraint that is not at present used as constraints in the computational domain, directly influencing the evolution of the model. This is in part due to the mathematical complications of incorporating such input into numerical models. Projection effects, confusion due to overlapping loops (the coronal plasma is optically thin), and the limited number of usable loops further complicate the use of information from coronal images. We develop and test a new algorithm to use images of coronal loops in the modeling of the solar coronal magnetic field. We first fit projected field lines with those of constant-{alpha} force-free fields to approximate the three-dimensional distribution of currents in the corona along a sparse set of trajectories. We then apply a Grad-Rubin-like iterative technique, which uses these trajectories as volume constraints on the values of {alpha}, to obtain a volume-filling nonlinear force-free model of the magnetic field, modifying a code and method presented by Wheatland. We thoroughly test the technique on known analytical and solar-like model magnetic fields previously used for comparing different extrapolation techniques and compare the results with those obtained by currently available methods relying only on the photospheric data. We conclude that we have developed a functioning method of modeling the coronal magnetic field by combining the line-of-sight component of the photospheric magnetic field with information from coronal images. Whereas we focus on the use of coronal loop information in combination with line-of-sight magnetograms, the method is readily extended to

  15. GUIDING NONLINEAR FORCE-FREE MODELING USING CORONAL OBSERVATIONS: FIRST RESULTS USING A QUASI-GRAD-RUBIN SCHEME

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Malanushenko, A.; Schrijver, C. J.; DeRosa, M. L.; Wheatland, M. S.; Gilchrist, S. A.

    2012-01-01

    At present, many models of the coronal magnetic field rely on photospheric vector magnetograms, but these data have been shown to be problematic as the sole boundary information for nonlinear force-free field extrapolations. Magnetic fields in the corona manifest themselves in high-energy images (X-rays and EUV) in the shapes of coronal loops, providing an additional constraint that is not at present used as constraints in the computational domain, directly influencing the evolution of the model. This is in part due to the mathematical complications of incorporating such input into numerical models. Projection effects, confusion due to overlapping loops (the coronal plasma is optically thin), and the limited number of usable loops further complicate the use of information from coronal images. We develop and test a new algorithm to use images of coronal loops in the modeling of the solar coronal magnetic field. We first fit projected field lines with those of constant-α force-free fields to approximate the three-dimensional distribution of currents in the corona along a sparse set of trajectories. We then apply a Grad-Rubin-like iterative technique, which uses these trajectories as volume constraints on the values of α, to obtain a volume-filling nonlinear force-free model of the magnetic field, modifying a code and method presented by Wheatland. We thoroughly test the technique on known analytical and solar-like model magnetic fields previously used for comparing different extrapolation techniques and compare the results with those obtained by currently available methods relying only on the photospheric data. We conclude that we have developed a functioning method of modeling the coronal magnetic field by combining the line-of-sight component of the photospheric magnetic field with information from coronal images. Whereas we focus on the use of coronal loop information in combination with line-of-sight magnetograms, the method is readily extended to incorporate

  16. The economic impacts of climate change on the Chilean agricultural sector: A non-linear agricultural supply model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Roberto Ponce

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available Agriculture could be one of the most vulnerable economic sectors to the impacts of climate change in the coming decades, with impacts threatening agricultural production in general and food security in particular. Within this context, climate change will impose a challenge to policy makers, especially in those countries that based their development on primary sectors. In this paper we present a non-linear agricultural supply model for the analysis of the economic impacts of changes in crop yields due to climate change. The model accounts for uncertainty through the use of Monte Carlo simulations about crop yields. According to our results, climate change impacts on the Chilean agricultural sector are widespread, with considerable distributional consequences across regions, and with fruits producers being worst-off than crops producers. In general, the results reported here are consistent with those reported by previous studies showing large economic impacts on the northern zone. However, our model does not simulate remarkable economic consequences at the country level as previous studies did.

  17. Classification of solutions of the forced periodic nonlinear Schrödinger equation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shlizerman, Eli; Rom-Kedar, Vered

    2010-01-01

    The integrable structure of the periodic one-dimensional nonlinear Schrödinger equation is utilized to gain insights regarding the perturbed near-integrable dynamics. After recalling the known results regarding the structure and stability of the unperturbed standing and travelling waves solutions, two new stability results are presented: (1) it is shown numerically that the stability of the 'outer' (cnoidal) unperturbed solutions depends on their power (the L 2 norm): they undergo a finite sequence of Hamiltonian–Hopf bifurcations as their power is increased. (2) another proof that the 'inner'(dnoidal) unperturbed solutions with multiplicity ≥2 are linearly unstable is presented. Then, to study the global phase-space structure, an energy–momentum bifurcation diagram (PDE-EMBD) that consists of projections of the unperturbed standing and travelling waves solutions to the energy–power plane and includes information regarding their linear stability is constructed. The PDE-EMBD helps us to classify the behaviour near the plane wave solutions: the diagram demonstrates that below some known threshold amplitude, precisely three distinct observable chaotic mechanisms arise: homoclinic chaos, homoclinic resonance and, for some parameter values, parabolic-resonance. Moreover, it appears that the dynamics of the PDE chaotic solutions that exhibit the parabolic-resonance instability may be qualitatively predicted: these exhibit the same dynamics as a recently derived parabolic-resonance low-dimensional normal form. In particular, these solutions undergo adiabatic chaos: they follow the level lines of an adiabatic invariant till they reach the separatrix set at which the adiabatic invariant undergoes essentially random jumps

  18. Insight to forcing of late Quaternary climate change from aeolian dust archives in eastern Australia

    Science.gov (United States)

    McGowan, H. A.; Marx, S.; Soderholm, J.; Denholm, J.; Petherick, L.

    2010-12-01

    The Australian continent is the largest source of dust in the Southern Hemisphere. Historical dust emissions records display inter-annual variability in response to the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon and inter-decadal variability which has been linked to the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). These reflect change in hydrometeorology of the continents two major dust source regions, the Murray-Darling Basin and the Lake Eyre Basin. The historical records do not allow longer term variability of ENSO and the PDO and their influence on Australia to be quantified. Importantly, sub-Milankovitch centennial to multi-millennial scale climate cycles and their impacts are not represented in the historical records. In this paper we present summary results from the analysis of two aeolain dust records spanning 7 ka and 45 ka. These were developed from ombrotrophic mire and lacustrine sediment cores collected from the Australian Alps and southeast Queensland. Both sites are located in the southeast Australian dust transport pathway and provide rare insight to forcings of climate variability and its impacts on eastern Australia through the late Quaternary. Age controls for the cores were established using 14C and 210Pb dating [McGowan et al. 2008, 2010]. The cores were sliced into 2 to 5 mm segments with a sub-sample of each segment combusted at 450°C for 12 hrs to destroy organic material and allow recovery of mineral dust. Geochemical fingerprinting of the global climate variability and the impact of forcings originating from the North Hemisphere. These results highlight the potential for adverse impacts on the climate of Australia by disturbance to North Atlantic Ocean circulation. References Marx, S. K., et al. 2005: Provenance of long travelled dust determined with ultra trace element composition: A pilot study with samples from New Zealand glaciers. Earth Surf. Processes Landforms, 30, 699-716. McGowan, H.A., et al. 2008: An ultra-high resolution record of

  19. Full non-linear treatment of the global thermospheric wind system. I - Mathematical method and analysis of forces. II - Results and comparison with observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blum, P. W.; Harris, I.

    1975-01-01

    The equations of horizontal motion of the neutral atmosphere between 120 and 500 km are integrated with the inclusion of all nonlinear terms of the convective derivative and the viscous forces due to vertical and horizontal velocity gradients. Empirical models of the distribution of neutral and charged particles are assumed to be known. The model of velocities developed is a steady state model. In Part I the mathematical method used in the integration of the Navier-Stokes equations is described and the various forces are analyzed. Results of the method given in Part I are presented with comparison with previous calculations and observations of upper atmospheric winds. Conclusions are that nonlinear effects are only significant in the equatorial region, especially at solstice conditions and that nonlinear effects do not produce any superrotation.

  20. The influence of atmospheric grid resolution in a climate model-forced ice sheet simulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lofverstrom, Marcus; Liakka, Johan

    2018-04-01

    Coupled climate-ice sheet simulations have been growing in popularity in recent years. Experiments of this type are however challenging as ice sheets evolve over multi-millennial timescales, which is beyond the practical integration limit of most Earth system models. A common method to increase model throughput is to trade resolution for computational efficiency (compromise accuracy for speed). Here we analyze how the resolution of an atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) influences the simulation quality in a stand-alone ice sheet model. Four identical AGCM simulations of the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) were run at different horizontal resolutions: T85 (1.4°), T42 (2.8°), T31 (3.8°), and T21 (5.6°). These simulations were subsequently used as forcing of an ice sheet model. While the T85 climate forcing reproduces the LGM ice sheets to a high accuracy, the intermediate resolution cases (T42 and T31) fail to build the Eurasian ice sheet. The T21 case fails in both Eurasia and North America. Sensitivity experiments using different surface mass balance parameterizations improve the simulations of the Eurasian ice sheet in the T42 case, but the compromise is a substantial ice buildup in Siberia. The T31 and T21 cases do not improve in the same way in Eurasia, though the latter simulates the continent-wide Laurentide ice sheet in North America. The difficulty to reproduce the LGM ice sheets in the T21 case is in broad agreement with previous studies using low-resolution atmospheric models, and is caused by a substantial deterioration of the model climate between the T31 and T21 resolutions. It is speculated that this deficiency may demonstrate a fundamental problem with using low-resolution atmospheric models in these types of experiments.

  1. Framing Climate Goals in Terms of Cumulative CO2-Forcing-Equivalent Emissions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jenkins, S.; Millar, R. J.; Leach, N.; Allen, M. R.

    2018-03-01

    The relationship between cumulative CO2 emissions and CO2-induced warming is determined by the Transient Climate Response to Emissions (TCRE), but total anthropogenic warming also depends on non-CO2 forcing, complicating the interpretation of emissions budgets based on CO2 alone. An alternative is to frame emissions budgets in terms of CO2-forcing-equivalent (CO2-fe) emissions—the CO2 emissions that would yield a given total anthropogenic radiative forcing pathway. Unlike conventional "CO2-equivalent" emissions, these are directly related to warming by the TCRE and need to fall to zero to stabilize warming: hence, CO2-fe emissions generalize the concept of a cumulative carbon budget to multigas scenarios. Cumulative CO2-fe emissions from 1870 to 2015 inclusive are found to be 2,900 ± 600 GtCO2-fe, increasing at a rate of 67 ± 9.5 GtCO2-fe/yr. A TCRE range of 0.8-2.5°C per 1,000 GtC implies a total budget for 0.6°C of additional warming above the present decade of 880-2,750 GtCO2-fe, with 1,290 GtCO2-fe implied by the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 median response, corresponding to 19 years' CO2-fe emissions at the current rate.

  2. MAGNETO-FRICTIONAL MODELING OF CORONAL NONLINEAR FORCE-FREE FIELDS. I. TESTING WITH ANALYTIC SOLUTIONS

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Guo, Y.; Keppens, R. [School of Astronomy and Space Science, Nanjing University, Nanjing 210023 (China); Xia, C. [Centre for mathematical Plasma-Astrophysics, Department of Mathematics, KU Leuven, B-3001 Leuven (Belgium); Valori, G., E-mail: guoyang@nju.edu.cn [University College London, Mullard Space Science Laboratory, Holmbury St. Mary, Dorking, Surrey RH5 6NT (United Kingdom)

    2016-09-10

    We report our implementation of the magneto-frictional method in the Message Passing Interface Adaptive Mesh Refinement Versatile Advection Code (MPI-AMRVAC). The method aims at applications where local adaptive mesh refinement (AMR) is essential to make follow-up dynamical modeling affordable. We quantify its performance in both domain-decomposed uniform grids and block-adaptive AMR computations, using all frequently employed force-free, divergence-free, and other vector comparison metrics. As test cases, we revisit the semi-analytic solution of Low and Lou in both Cartesian and spherical geometries, along with the topologically challenging Titov–Démoulin model. We compare different combinations of spatial and temporal discretizations, and find that the fourth-order central difference with a local Lax–Friedrichs dissipation term in a single-step marching scheme is an optimal combination. The initial condition is provided by the potential field, which is the potential field source surface model in spherical geometry. Various boundary conditions are adopted, ranging from fully prescribed cases where all boundaries are assigned with the semi-analytic models, to solar-like cases where only the magnetic field at the bottom is known. Our results demonstrate that all the metrics compare favorably to previous works in both Cartesian and spherical coordinates. Cases with several AMR levels perform in accordance with their effective resolutions. The magneto-frictional method in MPI-AMRVAC allows us to model a region of interest with high spatial resolution and large field of view simultaneously, as required by observation-constrained extrapolations using vector data provided with modern instruments. The applications of the magneto-frictional method to observations are shown in an accompanying paper.

  3. Changes of extreme precipitation and nonlinear influence of climate variables over monsoon region in China

    KAUST Repository

    Gao, Tao; Wang, Huixia Judy; Zhou, Tianjun

    2017-01-01

    of precipitation extremes over monsoon regions in China (MRC). However, research on monsoon extremes in China and their associations with climate variables is limited. In this study, we examine the space-time variations of extreme precipitation across the MRC

  4. The vertical distribution of climate forcings and feedbacks from the surface to top of atmosphere

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Previdi, Michael [Columbia University, Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Palisades, NY (United States); Liepert, Beate G. [NorthWest Research Associates, Redmond, WA (United States)

    2012-08-15

    The radiative forcings and feedbacks that determine Earth's climate sensitivity are typically defined at the top-of-atmosphere (TOA) or tropopause, yet climate sensitivity itself refers to a change in temperature at the surface. In this paper, we describe how TOA radiative perturbations translate into surface temperature changes. It is shown using first principles that radiation changes at the TOA can be equated with the change in energy stored by the oceans and land surface. This ocean and land heat uptake in turn involves an adjustment of the surface radiative and non-radiative energy fluxes, with the latter being comprised of the turbulent exchange of latent and sensible heat between the surface and atmosphere. We employ the radiative kernel technique to decompose TOA radiative feedbacks in the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report climate models into components associated with changes in radiative heating of the atmosphere and of the surface. (We consider the equilibrium response of atmosphere-mixed layer ocean models subjected to an instantaneous doubling of atmospheric CO{sub 2}). It is shown that most feedbacks, i.e., the temperature, water vapor and cloud feedbacks, (as well as CO{sub 2} forcing) affect primarily the turbulent energy exchange at the surface rather than the radiative energy exchange. Specifically, the temperature feedback increases the surface turbulent (radiative) energy loss by 2.87 W m{sup -2} K{sup -1} (0.60 W m{sup -2} K{sup -1}) in the multimodel mean; the water vapor feedback decreases the surface turbulent energy loss by 1.07 W m{sup -2} K{sup -1} and increases the surface radiative heating by 0.89 W m{sup -2} K{sup -1}; and the cloud feedback decreases both the turbulent energy loss and the radiative heating at the surface by 0.43 and 0.24 W m{sup -2} K{sup -1}, respectively. Since changes to the surface turbulent energy exchange are dominated in the global mean sense by changes in surface evaporation, these results serve to highlight

  5. Stable "Waterbelt" climates controlled by tropical ocean heat transport: A nonlinear coupled climate mechanism of relevance to Snowball Earth

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rose, Brian E. J.

    2015-02-01

    Ongoing controversy about Neoproterozoic Snowball Earth events motivates a theoretical study of stability and hysteresis properties of very cold climates. A coupled atmosphere-ocean-sea ice general circulation model (GCM) has four stable equilibria ranging from 0% to 100% ice cover, including a "Waterbelt" state with tropical sea ice. All four states are found at present-day insolation and greenhouse gas levels and with two idealized ocean basin configurations. The Waterbelt is stabilized against albedo feedback by intense but narrow wind-driven ocean overturning cells that deliver roughly 100 W m-2 heating to the ice edges. This requires three-way feedback between winds, ocean circulation, and ice extent in which circulation is shifted equatorward, following the baroclinicity at the ice margins. The thermocline is much shallower and outcrops in the tropics. Sea ice is snow-covered everywhere and has a minuscule seasonal cycle. The Waterbelt state spans a 46 W m-2 range in solar constant, has a significant hysteresis, and permits near-freezing equatorial surface temperatures. Additional context is provided by a slab ocean GCM and a diffusive energy balance model, both with prescribed ocean heat transport (OHT). Unlike the fully coupled model, these support no more than one stable ice margin, the position of which is slaved to regions of rapid poleward decrease in OHT convergence. Wide ranges of different climates (including the stable Waterbelt) are found by varying the magnitude and spatial structure of OHT in both models. Some thermodynamic arguments for the sensitivity of climate, and ice extent to OHT are presented.

  6. Probabilistic estimates of 1.5-degree carbon budgets based on uncertainty in transient climate response and aerosol forcing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Partanen, A. I.; Mengis, N.; Jalbert, J.; Matthews, D.

    2017-12-01

    Nations agreed to limit the increase in global mean surface temperature relative to the preindustrial era below 2 degrees Celsius and pursue efforts to a more ambitious goal of 1.5 degrees Celsius. To achieve these goals, it is necessary to assess the amount of cumulative carbon emissions compatible with these temperature targets, i.e. so called carbon budgets. In this work, we use the intermediate complexity University of Victoria Earth System Climate Model (UVic ESCM) to assess how uncertainty in aerosol forcing and transient climate response transfers to uncertainty in future carbon budgets for burning fossil fuels. We create a perturbed parameter ensemble of model simulations by scaling aerosol forcing and transient climate response, and assess the likelihood of each simulation by comparing the simulated historical cumulative carbon emissions, CO2 concentration and radiative balance to observations. By weighting the results of each simulation with the likelihood of the simulation, the preliminary results give a carbon budget of 48 Pg C to reach 1.5 degree Celsius temperature increase. The small weighted mean is due to large fraction of simulations with strong aerosol forcing and transient climate response giving negative carbon budgets for this time period. The probability of the carbon budget being over 100 Pg C was 38% and 23% for over 200 Pg carbon budget. The carbon budgets after temperature stabilization at 1.5 degrees are even smaller with a weighted mean of -100 Pg C until the year 2200. The main reason for the negative carbon budgets after temperature stabilization is an assumed strong decrease in aerosol forcing in the 21st century. Conversely, simulations with weak aerosol forcing and transient climate response give positive carbon budgets. Our results highlight both the importance of reducing uncertainty in aerosol forcing and transient climate response, and of taking the non-CO2 forcers into account when estimating carbon budgets.

  7. Genuine two-fluid computations of laser-plasma interaction for generation of nonlinear force driven plasma blocks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nafari, F.; Yazdani, E.; Malekynia, B.; Ghoranneviss, M.

    2010-01-01

    Complete text of publication follows. Anomalous interaction of picosecond laser pulses of terawatt to petawatt power is due to suppression of relativistic self-focusing if prepulses are cut-off by a contrast ratio higher than 10 8 . Resulting non-linear ponderomotive forces induced at the skin-layer interaction of a short laser-pulse with a proper preplasma layer produced by the laser prepulse in front of a solid target accelerate two thin (a few μm) quasi-neutral plasma blocks, propagating in forward and backward directions, backward moving against the laser light (ablation) and forward moving into the target. This compressed block produces an ion current density of above 10 11 A/cm 2 . This may support the requirement to produce a fast ignition deuterium tritium fusion at densities not much higher than the solid state by a single shot pw-ps laser pulse. With studying skin-layer subrelativistic interaction of a short (≤ 1 ps) laser pulse with an initial Rayleigh density profile in genuine two-fluid hydrodynamic model, time and spatial distributions of ion block temperature are presented.

  8. Differential and enhanced response to climate forcing in diarrheal disease due to rotavirus across a megacity of the developing world.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martinez, Pamela P; King, Aaron A; Yunus, Mohammad; Faruque, A S G; Pascual, Mercedes

    2016-04-12

    The role of climate forcing in the population dynamics of infectious diseases has typically been revealed via retrospective analyses of incidence records aggregated across space and, in particular, over whole cities. Here, we focus on the transmission dynamics of rotavirus, the main diarrheal disease in infants and young children, within the megacity of Dhaka, Bangladesh. We identify two zones, the densely urbanized core and the more rural periphery, that respond differentially to flooding. Moreover, disease seasonality differs substantially between these regions, spanning variation comparable to the variation from tropical to temperate regions. By combining process-based models with an extensive disease surveillance record, we show that the response to climate forcing is mainly seasonal in the core, where a more endemic transmission resulting from an asymptomatic reservoir facilitates the response to the monsoons. The force of infection in this monsoon peak can be an order of magnitude larger than the force of infection in the more epidemic periphery, which exhibits little or no postmonsoon outbreak in a pattern typical of nearby rural areas. A typically smaller peak during the monsoon season nevertheless shows sensitivity to interannual variability in flooding. High human density in the core is one explanation for enhanced transmission during troughs and an associated seasonal monsoon response in this diarrheal disease, which unlike cholera, has not been widely viewed as climate-sensitive. Spatial demographic, socioeconomic, and environmental heterogeneity can create reservoirs of infection and enhance the sensitivity of disease systems to climate forcing, especially in the populated cities of the developing world.

  9. Climatic driving forces in inter-annual variation of global FPAR

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peng, Dailiang; Liu, Liangyun; Yang, Xiaohua; Zhou, Bin

    2012-09-01

    Fraction of Absorbed Photosynthetically Active Radiation (FPAR) characterizes vegetation canopy functioning and its energy absorption capacity. In this paper, we focus on climatic driving forces in inter-annual variation of global FPAR from 1982 to 2006 by Global Historical Climatology Network (GHCN-Monthly) data. Using FPAR-Simple Ratio Vegetation Index (SR) relationship, Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) Global Inventory Modeling and Mapping Studies (GIMMS) Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) was used to estimate FPAR at the global scale. The correlation between inter-annual variation of FPAR and temperature, precipitation derived from GHCN-Monthly was examined, during the periods of March-May (MAM), June-August (JJA), September-November (SON), and December-February (DJF) over from 1982 to 2006. The analysis of climatic influence on global FPAR revealed the significant correlation with temperature and precipitation in some meteorological stations area, and a more significant correlation with precipitation was found than which with temperature. Some stations in the regions between 30° N and 60° N and around 30° S in South America, where the annual FPAR variation showed a significant positive correlation with temperature (P forest of Africa and Amazon during the dry season of JJA and SON.

  10. Multi-level emulation of complex climate model responses to boundary forcing data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tran, Giang T.; Oliver, Kevin I. C.; Holden, Philip B.; Edwards, Neil R.; Sóbester, András; Challenor, Peter

    2018-04-01

    Climate model components involve both high-dimensional input and output fields. It is desirable to efficiently generate spatio-temporal outputs of these models for applications in integrated assessment modelling or to assess the statistical relationship between such sets of inputs and outputs, for example, uncertainty analysis. However, the need for efficiency often compromises the fidelity of output through the use of low complexity models. Here, we develop a technique which combines statistical emulation with a dimensionality reduction technique to emulate a wide range of outputs from an atmospheric general circulation model, PLASIM, as functions of the boundary forcing prescribed by the ocean component of a lower complexity climate model, GENIE-1. Although accurate and detailed spatial information on atmospheric variables such as precipitation and wind speed is well beyond the capability of GENIE-1's energy-moisture balance model of the atmosphere, this study demonstrates that the output of this model is useful in predicting PLASIM's spatio-temporal fields through multi-level emulation. Meaningful information from the fast model, GENIE-1 was extracted by utilising the correlation between variables of the same type in the two models and between variables of different types in PLASIM. We present here the construction and validation of several PLASIM variable emulators and discuss their potential use in developing a hybrid model with statistical components.

  11. Future climate forcing potentially without precedent in the last 420 million years.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Foster, Gavin L; Royer, Dana L; Lunt, Daniel J

    2017-04-04

    The evolution of Earth's climate on geological timescales is largely driven by variations in the magnitude of total solar irradiance (TSI) and changes in the greenhouse gas content of the atmosphere. Here we show that the slow ∼50 Wm -2 increase in TSI over the last ∼420 million years (an increase of ∼9 Wm -2 of radiative forcing) was almost completely negated by a long-term decline in atmospheric CO 2 . This was likely due to the silicate weathering-negative feedback and the expansion of land plants that together ensured Earth's long-term habitability. Humanity's fossil-fuel use, if unabated, risks taking us, by the middle of the twenty-first century, to values of CO 2 not seen since the early Eocene (50 million years ago). If CO 2 continues to rise further into the twenty-third century, then the associated large increase in radiative forcing, and how the Earth system would respond, would likely be without geological precedent in the last half a billion years.

  12. Impact of evolving greenhouse gas forcing on the warming signal in regional climate model experiments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jerez, S; López-Romero, J M; Turco, M; Jiménez-Guerrero, P; Vautard, R; Montávez, J P

    2018-04-03

    Variations in the atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases (GHG) may not be included as external forcing when running regional climate models (RCMs); at least, this is a non-regulated, non-documented practice. Here we investigate the so far unexplored impact of considering the rising evolution of the CO 2 , CH 4 , and N 2 O atmospheric concentrations on near-surface air temperature (TAS) trends, for both the recent past and the near future, as simulated by a state-of-the-art RCM over Europe. The results show that the TAS trends are significantly affected by 1-2 K century -1 , which under 1.5 °C global warming translates into a non-negligible impact of up to 1 K in the regional projections of TAS, similarly affecting projections for maximum and minimum temperatures. In some cases, these differences involve a doubling signal, laying further claim to careful reconsideration of the RCM setups with regard to the inclusion of GHG concentrations as an evolving external forcing which, for the sake of research reproducibility and reliability, should be clearly documented in the literature.

  13. Constraining Carbonaceous Aerosol Climate Forcing by Bridging Laboratory, Field and Modeling Studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dubey, M. K.; Aiken, A. C.; Liu, S.; Saleh, R.; Cappa, C. D.; Williams, L. R.; Donahue, N. M.; Gorkowski, K.; Ng, N. L.; Mazzoleni, C.; China, S.; Sharma, N.; Yokelson, R. J.; Allan, J. D.; Liu, D.

    2014-12-01

    Biomass and fossil fuel combustion emits black (BC) and brown carbon (BrC) aerosols that absorb sunlight to warm climate and organic carbon (OC) aerosols that scatter sunlight to cool climate. The net forcing depends strongly on the composition, mixing state and transformations of these carbonaceous aerosols. Complexities from large variability of fuel types, combustion conditions and aging processes have confounded their treatment in models. We analyse recent laboratory and field measurements to uncover fundamental mechanism that control the chemical, optical and microphysical properties of carbonaceous aerosols that are elaborated below: Wavelength dependence of absorption and the single scattering albedo (ω) of fresh biomass burning aerosols produced from many fuels during FLAME-4 was analysed to determine the factors that control the variability in ω. Results show that ω varies strongly with fire-integrated modified combustion efficiency (MCEFI)—higher MCEFI results in lower ω values and greater spectral dependence of ω (Liu et al GRL 2014). A parameterization of ω as a function of MCEFI for fresh BB aerosols is derived from the laboratory data and is evaluated by field data, including BBOP. Our laboratory studies also demonstrate that BrC production correlates with BC indicating that that they are produced by a common mechanism that is driven by MCEFI (Saleh et al NGeo 2014). We show that BrC absorption is concentrated in the extremely low volatility component that favours long-range transport. We observe substantial absorption enhancement for internally mixed BC from diesel and wood combustion near London during ClearFlo. While the absorption enhancement is due to BC particles coated by co-emitted OC in urban regions, it increases with photochemical age in rural areas and is simulated by core-shell models. We measure BrC absorption that is concentrated in the extremely low volatility components and attribute it to wood burning. Our results support

  14. North American Monsoon Response to Eemian Climate Forcings and its Effect on Rocky Mountain Forests

    Science.gov (United States)

    Insel, N.; Berkelhammer, M. B.

    2017-12-01

    The key to recognizing and predicting future changes in regional climate and ecosystems lies in understanding the causes and characteristics of paleovariations. The Last Interglacial (LIG: 130-116 ka) is the most recent period in Earth history when temperatures are believed to have exceeded those of today. In this study, we are focusing on the response of the North American monsoon (NAM) to shifts in orbital forcings during LIG. In particular, we are using regional climate model (RegCM) simulations under LIG (115ka, 125 ka and 135 ka) and modern forcings to evaluate changes in the strength, timing, duration, and amount of moisture transported from different sources during the NAM season. Understanding these variations is critical to forecast seasonal supply of water to the southwestern U.S. under current warming conditions. In addition, cellulose extracted stable isotopes from Rocky Mountain Eemian wood samples provides both a tool to diagnose the model simulations and to evaluate the response of western U.S. tree species to changes in temperature and moisture availability. Our preliminary results indicate enhanced summer precipitation, wind shifts and changes in NAM characteristics in response to increased Northern Hemisphere insolation. The following features were observed: (1) The NAM strengthens and extends slightly more northward during the Eemian due to a shift in upper-level divergence. (2) The onset and duration of the NAM seems to be similar between modern and Eemian simulations. (3) Consistent with modern observations, simulations suggest a western NAM region in Arizona that receives most of its monsoonal moisture from the Gulf of California, while the eastern NAM region in New Mexico obtains most of its summer rains from the Gulf of Mexico. In the Eemian, we see a spatial shift from more depleted to more enriched source waters throughout the monsoon season. These changes in the summer climate are confirmed by the tree ring isotope data, which show a

  15. Do Quercus ilex woodlands undergo abrupt non-linear functional changes in response to human disturbance along a climatic gradient?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bochet, Esther; García-Fayos, Patricio; José Molina, Maria; Moreno de las Heras, Mariano; Espigares, Tíscar; Nicolau, Jose Manuel; Monleon, Vicente

    2017-04-01

    Theoretical models predict that drylands are particularly prone to suffer critical transitions with abrupt non-linear changes in their structure and functions as a result of the existing complex interactions between climatic fluctuations and human disturbances. However, so far, few studies provide empirical data to validate these models. We aim at determining how holm oak (Quercus ilex) woodlands undergo changes in their functions in response to human disturbance along an aridity gradient (from semi-arid to sub-humid conditions), in eastern Spain. For that purpose, we used (a) remote-sensing estimations of precipitation-use-efficiency (PUE) from enhanced vegetation index (EVI) observations performed in 231x231 m plots of the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS); (b) biological and chemical soil parameter determinations (extracellular soil enzyme activity, soil respiration, nutrient cycling processes) from soil sampled in the same plots; (c) vegetation parameter determinations (ratio of functional groups) from vegetation surveys performed in the same plots. We analyzed and compared the shape of the functional change (in terms of PUE and soil and vegetation parameters) in response to human disturbance intensity for our holm oak sites along the aridity gradient. Overall, our results evidenced important differences in the shape of the functional change in response to human disturbance between climatic conditions. Semi-arid areas experienced a more accelerated non-linear decrease with an increasing disturbance intensity than sub-humid ones. The proportion of functional groups (herbaceous vs. woody cover) played a relevant role in the shape of the functional response of the holm oak sites to human disturbance.

  16. Global impact of road traffic on atmospheric chemical composition and on ozone climate forcing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Niemeier, Ulrike; Granier, Claire; Kornblueh, Luis; Walters, Stacy; Brasseur, Guy P.

    2006-05-01

    Automobile emissions are known to contribute to local air pollution and to photochemical smog in urban areas. The impact of road traffic on the chemical composition of the troposphere at the global scale and on climate forcing is less well quantified. Calculations performed with the chemical transport MOZART-2 model show that the concentrations of ozone and its precursors (NOx, CO, and hydrocarbons) are considerably enhanced in most regions of the Northern Hemisphere in response to current surface traffic. During summertime in the Northern Hemisphere, road traffic has increased the zonally averaged ozone concentration by more than 10% in the boundary layer and in the extratropics by approximately 6% at 500 hPa and 2.5% at 300 hPa. The summertime surface ozone concentrations have increased by typically 1-5 ppbv in the remote regions and by 5-20 ppbv in industrialized regions of the Northern Hemisphere. The corresponding ozone-related radiative forcing is 0.05 Wm-2. In order to assess the sensitivity of potential changes in road traffic intensity, two additional model cases were considered, in which traffic-related emissions in all regions of the world were assumed to be on a per capita basis the same as in Europe and in the United States, respectively. In the second and most dramatic case, the surface ozone concentration increases by 30-50 ppbv (50-100%) in south Asia as compared to the present situation. Under this assumption, the global radiative forcing due to traffic-generated ozone reaches 0.27 Wm-2.

  17. Climatic Forcing on Black Sigatoka Disease of Banana Crops in Urabá, Colombia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ochoa, A.; Álvarez, P.; Poveda, G.; Buriticá, P.; Mira, J.

    2012-12-01

    Bananas are widely the most consumed fruit in the world and Colombia is one of the major producers and exporters of bananas worldwide. We analyzed the climatic forcing agents on banana crops in the Urabá region, the largest banana producer in Colombia. Although this crop is harvested continuously throughout the entire year, it exhibits climate driven seasonality. Black Sigatoka Disease (BSD) has been the most important threat for banana production worldwide. BSD attacks plant leaves producing small spots of dead material. When BSD is not treated, it can grow enough to damage the entire leaf, reducing both growth and developmental rates which may result in the loss of the plant. BSD is caused by Mycosphaerella fijiensis. This fungus is dispersed by wind with its inoculation occurring when there is water on the leaf. Thus, climatic variables such as wind, relative humidity of air (RH) and leaf wetness duration (LWD) all affect phenological phases of the banana crop (suckering, growing, flowering and harvesting). This study was carried out at the Cenibanano Experimental Plot located in Carepa (Urabá, Colombia) during 2007-2012. We used phytopathologic and weather data from the Cenibanano database along with climatic data from the North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR). BSD was diagnosed using the Biological Forecasting method. Results show that rainfall drives both plant and disease development rate. During wet periods the Foliar Emission Rate exceeds rates measured during dry periods. Although wetness is a positive factor for fungal reproduction (and BSD), it also heightens the chance for the plant to create more foliar tissue to fight against BSD. Hence, during wet periods the Severity Index of BSD is reduced in relation to dry periods. This effect was also observed at the inter-annual scale of the El Niño - South Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon. During the ENSO warm/cold phase (El Niño/La Niña) rainfall anomalies in Colombia were observed as negative

  18. A geometric criterion for the stability of forced oscillations in non-linear mechanics (1961); Un critere geometrique de stabilite des oscillations forcees en mecanique non lineaire (1961)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Blaquiere, A [Commissariat a l' Energie Atomique, Saclay (France). Centre d' Etudes Nucleaires

    1961-07-01

    The author completes the two-parameter diagram theory which he has previously explained, by giving a geometric criterion of stability for a non-linear system under forced conditions. After two simple geometric transformations of the diagram he obtains the separators which are the boundary conditions for the zones of stability. (author) [French] L'auteur complete la theorie du diagramme a deux parametres, qu'il a anterieurement exposee, par l'enonce d'un critere geometrique de stabilite, relatif aux regimes forces d'un systeme non lineaire. Il obtient, par deux transformations geometriques simples du diagramme, les separatrices qui delimitent les zones de stabilite. (auteur)

  19. Assimilating Non-linear Effects of Customized Large-Scale Climate Predictors on Downscaled Precipitation over the Tropical Andes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Molina, J. M.; Zaitchik, B. F.

    2016-12-01

    Recent findings considering high CO2 emission scenarios (RCP8.5) suggest that the tropical Andes may experience a massive warming and a significant precipitation increase (decrease) during the wet (dry) seasons by the end of the 21st century. Variations on rainfall-streamflow relationships and seasonal crop yields significantly affect human development in this region and make local communities highly vulnerable to climate change and variability. We developed an expert-informed empirical statistical downscaling (ESD) algorithm to explore and construct robust global climate predictors to perform skillful RCP8.5 projections of in-situ March-May (MAM) precipitation required for impact modeling and adaptation studies. We applied our framework to a topographically-complex region of the Colombian Andes where a number of previous studies have reported El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) as the main driver of climate variability. Supervised machine learning algorithms were trained with customized and bias-corrected predictors from NCEP reanalysis, and a cross-validation approach was implemented to assess both predictive skill and model selection. We found weak and not significant teleconnections between precipitation and lagged seasonal surface temperatures over El Niño3.4 domain, which suggests that ENSO fails to explain MAM rainfall variability in the study region. In contrast, series of Sea Level Pressure (SLP) over American Samoa -likely associated with the South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ)- explains more than 65% of the precipitation variance. The best prediction skill was obtained with Selected Generalized Additive Models (SGAM) given their ability to capture linear/nonlinear relationships present in the data. While SPCZ-related series exhibited a positive linear effect in the rainfall response, SLP predictors in the north Atlantic and central equatorial Pacific showed nonlinear effects. A multimodel (MIROC, CanESM2 and CCSM) ensemble of ESD projections revealed

  20. The ocean's role in polar climate change: asymmetric Arctic and Antarctic responses to greenhouse gas and ozone forcing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marshall, John; Armour, Kyle C; Scott, Jeffery R; Kostov, Yavor; Hausmann, Ute; Ferreira, David; Shepherd, Theodore G; Bitz, Cecilia M

    2014-07-13

    In recent decades, the Arctic has been warming and sea ice disappearing. By contrast, the Southern Ocean around Antarctica has been (mainly) cooling and sea-ice extent growing. We argue here that interhemispheric asymmetries in the mean ocean circulation, with sinking in the northern North Atlantic and upwelling around Antarctica, strongly influence the sea-surface temperature (SST) response to anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) forcing, accelerating warming in the Arctic while delaying it in the Antarctic. Furthermore, while the amplitude of GHG forcing has been similar at the poles, significant ozone depletion only occurs over Antarctica. We suggest that the initial response of SST around Antarctica to ozone depletion is one of cooling and only later adds to the GHG-induced warming trend as upwelling of sub-surface warm water associated with stronger surface westerlies impacts surface properties. We organize our discussion around 'climate response functions' (CRFs), i.e. the response of the climate to 'step' changes in anthropogenic forcing in which GHG and/or ozone-hole forcing is abruptly turned on and the transient response of the climate revealed and studied. Convolutions of known or postulated GHG and ozone-hole forcing functions with their respective CRFs then yield the transient forced SST response (implied by linear response theory), providing a context for discussion of the differing warming/cooling trends in the Arctic and Antarctic. We speculate that the period through which we are now passing may be one in which the delayed warming of SST associated with GHG forcing around Antarctica is largely cancelled by the cooling effects associated with the ozone hole. By mid-century, however, ozone-hole effects may instead be adding to GHG warming around Antarctica but with diminished amplitude as the ozone hole heals. The Arctic, meanwhile, responding to GHG forcing but in a manner amplified by ocean heat transport, may continue to warm at an accelerating rate.

  1. Climate responses to SATIRE and SIM-based spectral solar forcing in a 3D atmosphere-ocean coupled GCM

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wen Guoyong

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available We apply two reconstructed spectral solar forcing scenarios, one SIM (Spectral Irradiance Monitor based, the other the SATIRE (Spectral And Total Irradiance REconstruction modeled, as inputs to the GISS (Goddard Institute for Space Studies GCMAM (Global Climate Middle Atmosphere Model to examine climate responses on decadal to centennial time scales, focusing on quantifying the difference of climate response between the two solar forcing scenarios. We run the GCMAM for about 400 years with present day trace gas and aerosol for the two solar forcing inputs. We find that the SIM-based solar forcing induces much larger long-term response and 11-year variation in global averaged stratospheric temperature and column ozone. We find significant decreasing trends of planetary albedo for both forcing scenarios in the 400-year model runs. However the mechanisms for the decrease are very different. For SATIRE solar forcing, the decreasing trend of planetary albedo is associated with changes in cloud cover. For SIM-based solar forcing, without significant change in cloud cover on centennial and longer time scales, the apparent decreasing trend of planetary albedo is mainly due to out-of-phase variation in shortwave radiative forcing proxy (downwelling flux for wavelength >330 nm and total solar irradiance (TSI. From the Maunder Minimum to present, global averaged annual mean surface air temperature has a response of ~0.1 °C to SATIRE solar forcing compared to ~0.04 °C to SIM-based solar forcing. For 11-year solar cycle, the global surface air temperature response has 3-year lagged response to either forcing scenario. The global surface air 11-year temperature response to SATIRE forcing is about 0.12 °C, similar to recent multi-model estimates, and comparable to the observational-based evidence. However, the global surface air temperature response to 11-year SIM-based solar forcing is insignificant and inconsistent with observation-based evidence.

  2. Effect of nonlinear electrostatic forces on the dynamic behaviour of a capacitive ring-based Coriolis Vibrating Gyroscope under severe shock

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chouvion, B.; McWilliam, S.; Popov, A. A.

    2018-06-01

    This paper investigates the dynamic behaviour of capacitive ring-based Coriolis Vibrating Gyroscopes (CVGs) under severe shock conditions. A general analytical model is developed for a multi-supported ring resonator by describing the in-plane ring response as a finite sum of modes of a perfect ring and the electrostatic force as a Taylor series expansion. It is shown that the supports can induce mode coupling and that mode coupling occurs when the shock is severe and the electrostatic forces are nonlinear. The influence of electrostatic nonlinearity is investigated by numerically simulating the governing equations of motion. For the severe shock cases investigated, when the electrode gap reduces by ∼ 60 % , it is found that three ring modes of vibration (1 θ, 2 θ and 3 θ) and a 9th order force expansion are needed to obtain converged results for the global shock behaviour. Numerical results when the 2 θ mode is driven at resonance indicate that electrostatic nonlinearity introduces mode coupling which has potential to reduce sensor performance under operating conditions. Under some circumstances it is also found that severe shocks can cause the vibrating response to jump to another stable state with much lower vibration amplitude. This behaviour is mainly a function of shock amplitude and rigid-body motion damping.

  3. Emergent reorganization of an evolving experimental landscape under changing climatic forcing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Singh, A.; Tejedor, A.; Zaliapin, I. V.; Reinhardt, L.; Foufoula-Georgiou, E.

    2014-12-01

    Understanding landscape re-organization under changing climatic forcing is fundamental to advancing our understanding of geomorphic transport laws under transient conditions, developing predictive models of landscape response to external perturbations, and interpreting the stratigraphic record for past climates by incorporating possible regime shifts. Real landscape observations for long-term analysis are limited and to this end a high resolution controlled laboratory experiment was conducted at the St. Anthony Falls laboratory at the University of Minnesota. Elevation data were collected at temporal resolution of 5 mins and spatial resolution of 0.5 mm as the landscape approached steady state (for a constant uplift and precipitation rate) and in the transient state (under the same uplift and 5x precipitation). The results reveal rapid topographic re-organization under a five-fold precipitation increase with the fluvial regime expanding into previously debris dominated regime, accelerated erosion happening at hillslope scales, and rivers shifting from an erosion-limited to a transport-limited regime. By studying the space-time structure of the individual erosional and depositional events in terms of their size, location, clustering, and total volume we report complex space-time patterns of change which are scale-dependent and bounded by the river network topology. At the same time, the river network topology itself adjusts at smaller scales, with new channels added to accommodate increased hillslope erosional transport, further adjusting the landscape. Some new ideas related to landscape variability and entropy evolution at different scales during steady and transient states and the possibility of analyzing the self-organization with Optimal Mass Transport (OMT) metrics to infer possible underlying "optimality" principles governing the re-organization will also be presented.

  4. The influence of fully nonlinear wave forces on aero-hydro-elastic calculations of monopile wind turbines

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schløer, Signe; Bredmose, Henrik; Bingham, Harry B.

    2016-01-01

    The response of an offshore wind turbine tower and its monopile foundation has been investigated when exposed to linear and fully nonlinear irregular waves on four different water depths. The investigation focuses on the consequences of including full nonlinearity in the wave kinematics. The line...

  5. Tectonics, orbital forcing, global climate change, and human evolution in Africa: introduction to the African paleoclimate special volume.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maslin, Mark A; Christensen, Beth

    2007-11-01

    The late Cenozoic climate of Africa is a critical component for understanding human evolution. African climate is controlled by major tectonic changes, global climate transitions, and local variations in orbital forcing. We introduce the special African Paleoclimate Issue of the Journal of Human Evolution by providing a background for and synthesis of the latest work relating to the environmental context for human evolution. Records presented in this special issue suggest that the regional tectonics, appearance of C(4) plants in East Africa, and late Cenozoic global cooling combined to produce a long-term drying trend in East Africa. Of particular importance is the uplift associated with the East African Rift Valley formation, which altered wind flow patterns from a more zonal to more meridinal direction. Results in this volume suggest a marked difference in the climate history of southern and eastern Africa, though both are clearly influenced by the major global climate thresholds crossed in the last 3 million years. Papers in this volume present lake, speleothem, and marine paleoclimate records showing that the East African long-term drying trend is punctuated by episodes of short, alternating periods of extreme wetness and aridity. These periods of extreme climate variability are characterized by the precession-forced appearance and disappearance of large, deep lakes in the East African Rift Valley and paralleled by low and high wind-driven dust loads reaching the adjacent ocean basins. Dating of these records show that over the last 3 million years such periods only occur at the times of major global climatic transitions, such as the intensification of Northern Hemisphere Glaciation (2.7-2.5 Ma), intensification of the Walker Circulation (1.9-1.7 Ma), and the Mid-Pleistocene Revolution (1-0.7 Ma). Authors in this volume suggest this onset occurs as high latitude forcing in both Hemispheres compresses the Intertropical Convergence Zone so that East Africa

  6. Sub-Saharan Northern African climate at the end of the twenty-first century: forcing factors and climate change processes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Patricola, C.M. [Cornell University, Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Ithaca, NY (United States); Texas A and M University, Department of Atmospheric Sciences, College Station, TX (United States); Cook, K.H. [The University of Texas at Austin, Department of Geological Sciences, Jackson School of Geosciences, Austin, TX (United States)

    2011-09-15

    A regional climate model, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model, is forced with increased atmospheric CO{sub 2} and anomalous SSTs and lateral boundary conditions derived from nine coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models to produce an ensemble set of nine future climate simulations for northern Africa at the end of the twenty-first century. A well validated control simulation, agreement among ensemble members, and a physical understanding of the future climate change enhance confidence in the predictions. The regional model ensembles produce consistent precipitation projections over much of northern tropical Africa. A moisture budget analysis is used to identify the circulation changes that support future precipitation anomalies. The projected midsummer drought over the Guinean Coast region is related partly to weakened monsoon flow. Since the rainfall maximum demonstrates a southward bias in the control simulation in July-August, this may be indicative of future summer drying over the Sahel. Wetter conditions in late summer over the Sahel are associated with enhanced moisture transport by the West African westerly jet, a strengthening of the jet itself, and moisture transport from the Mediterranean. Severe drought in East Africa during August and September is accompanied by a weakened Indian monsoon and Somali jet. Simulations with projected and idealized SST forcing suggest that overall SST warming in part supports this regional model ensemble agreement, although changes in SST gradients are important over West Africa in spring and fall. Simulations which isolate the role of individual climate forcings suggest that the spatial distribution of the rainfall predictions is controlled by the anomalous SST and lateral boundary conditions, while CO{sub 2} forcing within the regional model domain plays an important secondary role and generally produces wetter conditions. (orig.)

  7. A modeling study of effective radiative forcing and climate response due to increased methane concentration

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bing Xie

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available An atmospheric general circulation model BCC_AGCM2.0 and observation data from ARIS were used to calculate the effective radiative forcing (ERF due to increased methane concentration since pre-industrial times and its impacts on climate. The ERF of methane from 1750 to 2011 was 0.46 W m−2 by taking it as a well-mixed greenhouse gas, and the inhomogeneity of methane increased its ERF by about 0.02 W m−2. The change of methane concentration since pre-industrial led to an increase of 0.31 °C in global mean surface air temperature and 0.02 mm d−1 in global mean precipitation. The warming was prominent over the middle and high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere (with a maximum increase exceeding 1.4 °C. The precipitation notably increased (maximum increase of 1.8 mm d−1 over the ocean between 10°N and 20°N and significantly decreased (maximum decrease >–0.6 mm d−1 between 10°S and 10°N. These changes caused a northward movement of precipitation cell in the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ. Cloud cover significantly increased (by approximately 4% in the high latitudes in both hemispheres, and sharply decreased (by approximately 3% in tropical areas.

  8. Experimental evidence of dynamic re-organization of evolving landscapes under changing climatic forcing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Singh, Arvind; Tejedor, Alejandro; Zaliapin, Ilya; Reinhardt, Liam; Foufoula-Georgiou, Efi

    2015-04-01

    The aim of this study is to better understand the dynamic re-organization of an evolving landscape under a scenario of changing climatic forcing for improving our knowledge of geomorphic transport laws under transient conditions and developing predictive models of landscape response to external perturbations. Real landscape observations for long-term analysis are limited and to this end a high resolution controlled laboratory experiment was conducted at the St. Anthony Falls laboratory at the University of Minnesota. Elevation data were collected at temporal resolution of 5 mins and spatial resolution of 0.5 mm as the landscape approached steady state (constant uplift and precipitation rate) and in the transient state (under the same uplift and 5x precipitation). The results reveal rapid topographic re-organization under a five-fold precipitation increase with the fluvial regime expanding into the previously debris dominated regime, accelerated erosion happening at hillslope scales, and rivers shifting from an erosion-limited to a transport-limited regime. From a connectivity and clustering analysis of the erosional and depositional events, we demonstrate the strikingly different spatial patterns of landscape evolution under steady-state (SS) and transient-state (TS), even when the time under SS is "stretched" compared to that under TS such as to match the total volume and PDF of erosional and depositional amounts. We quantify the spatial coupling of hillslopes and channels and demonstrate that hillslopes lead and channels follow in re-organizing the whole landscape under such an amplified precipitation regime.

  9. A Bayesian approach for estimating under-reported dengue incidence with a focus on non-linear associations between climate and dengue in Dhaka, Bangladesh.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sharmin, Sifat; Glass, Kathryn; Viennet, Elvina; Harley, David

    2018-04-01

    Determining the relation between climate and dengue incidence is challenging due to under-reporting of disease and consequent biased incidence estimates. Non-linear associations between climate and incidence compound this. Here, we introduce a modelling framework to estimate dengue incidence from passive surveillance data while incorporating non-linear climate effects. We estimated the true number of cases per month using a Bayesian generalised linear model, developed in stages to adjust for under-reporting. A semi-parametric thin-plate spline approach was used to quantify non-linear climate effects. The approach was applied to data collected from the national dengue surveillance system of Bangladesh. The model estimated that only 2.8% (95% credible interval 2.7-2.8) of all cases in the capital Dhaka were reported through passive case reporting. The optimal mean monthly temperature for dengue transmission is 29℃ and average monthly rainfall above 15 mm decreases transmission. Our approach provides an estimate of true incidence and an understanding of the effects of temperature and rainfall on dengue transmission in Dhaka, Bangladesh.

  10. Economic Value of Narrowing the Uncertainty in Climate Sensitivity: Decadal Change in Shortwave Cloud Radiative Forcing and Low Cloud Feedback

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wielicki, B. A.; Cooke, R. M.; Golub, A. A.; Mlynczak, M. G.; Young, D. F.; Baize, R. R.

    2016-12-01

    Several previous studies have been published on the economic value of narrowing the uncertainty in climate sensitivity (Cooke et al. 2015, Cooke et al. 2016, Hope, 2015). All three of these studies estimated roughly 10 Trillion U.S. dollars for the Net Present Value and Real Option Value at a discount rate of 3%. This discount rate is the nominal discount rate used in the U.S. Social Cost of Carbon Memo (2010). The Cooke et al studies approached this problem by examining advances in accuracy of global temperature measurements, while the Hope 2015 study did not address the type of observations required. While temperature change is related to climate sensitivity, large uncertainties of a factor of 3 in current anthropogenic radiative forcing (IPCC, 2013) would need to be solved for advanced decadal temperature change observations to assist the challenge of narrowing climate sensitivity. The present study takes a new approach by extending the Cooke et al. 2015,2016 papers to replace observations of temperature change to observations of decadal change in the effects of changing clouds on the Earths radiative energy balance, a measurement known as Cloud Radiative Forcing, or Cloud Radiative Effect. Decadal change in this observation is direclty related to the largest uncertainty in climate sensitivity which is cloud feedback from changing amount of low clouds, primarily low clouds over the world's oceans. As a result, decadal changes in shortwave cloud radiative forcing are more directly related to cloud feedback uncertainty which is the dominant uncertainty in climate sensitivity. This paper will show results for the new approach, and allow an examination of the sensitivity of economic value results to different observations used as a constraint on uncertainty in climate sensitivity. The analysis suggests roughly a doubling of economic value to 20 Trillion Net Present Value or Real Option Value at 3% discount rate. The higher economic value results from two changes: a

  11. A new analytical approach for limit cycles and quasi-periodic solutions of nonlinear oscillators: the example of the forced Van der Pol Duffing oscillator

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shukla, Anant Kant; Ramamohan, T R; Srinivas, S

    2014-01-01

    In this paper we propose a technique to obtain limit cycles and quasi-periodic solutions of forced nonlinear oscillators. We apply this technique to the forced Van der Pol oscillator and the forced Van der Pol Duffing oscillator and obtain for the first time their limit cycles (periodic) and quasi-periodic solutions analytically. We introduce a modification of the homotopy analysis method to obtain these solutions. We minimize the square residual error to obtain accurate approximations to these solutions. The obtained analytical solutions are convergent and agree well with numerical solutions even at large times. Time trajectories of the solution, its first derivative and phase plots are presented to confirm the validity of the proposed approach. We also provide rough criteria for the determination of parameter regimes which lead to limit cycle or quasi-periodic behaviour. (papers)

  12. Linear and nonlinear characteristics of the runoff response to regional climate factors in the Qira River basin, Xinjiang, Northwest China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jie Xue

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available The inland river watersheds of arid Northwest China represent an example of how, in recent times, climatic warming has increased the complexity of Earth’s hydrological processes. In the present study, the linear and nonlinear characteristics of the runoff response to temperature and precipitation were investigated in the Qira River basin, located on the northern slope of the Kunlun Mountains. The results showed that average temperature on annual and seasonal scales has displayed a significantly increasing trend, but this has not been reflected in accumulated precipitation and runoff. Using path analysis, a positive link between precipitation and runoff was found both annually and in the summer season. Conversely, it was found that the impact of temperature on runoff has been negative since the 1960s, attributable to higher evaporation and infiltration in the Qira River basin. Over the past 50 years, abrupt changes in annual temperature, precipitation and runoff occurred in 1997, 1987 and 1995, respectively. Combined with analysis using the correlation dimension method, it was found that the temperature, precipitation and runoff, both annually and seasonally, possessed chaotic dynamic characteristics, implying that complex hydro-climatic processes must be introduced into other variables within models to describe the dynamics. In addition, as determined via rescaled range analysis, a consistent annual and seasonal decreasing trend in runoff under increasing temperature and precipitation conditions in the future should be taken into account. This work may provide a theoretical perspective that can be applied to the proper use and management of oasis water resources in the lower reaches of river basins like that of the Qira River.

  13. Linear and nonlinear characteristics of the runoff response to regional climate factors in the Qira River basin, Xinjiang, Northwest China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xue, Jie; Gui, Dongwei

    2015-01-01

    The inland river watersheds of arid Northwest China represent an example of how, in recent times, climatic warming has increased the complexity of Earth's hydrological processes. In the present study, the linear and nonlinear characteristics of the runoff response to temperature and precipitation were investigated in the Qira River basin, located on the northern slope of the Kunlun Mountains. The results showed that average temperature on annual and seasonal scales has displayed a significantly increasing trend, but this has not been reflected in accumulated precipitation and runoff. Using path analysis, a positive link between precipitation and runoff was found both annually and in the summer season. Conversely, it was found that the impact of temperature on runoff has been negative since the 1960s, attributable to higher evaporation and infiltration in the Qira River basin. Over the past 50 years, abrupt changes in annual temperature, precipitation and runoff occurred in 1997, 1987 and 1995, respectively. Combined with analysis using the correlation dimension method, it was found that the temperature, precipitation and runoff, both annually and seasonally, possessed chaotic dynamic characteristics, implying that complex hydro-climatic processes must be introduced into other variables within models to describe the dynamics. In addition, as determined via rescaled range analysis, a consistent annual and seasonal decreasing trend in runoff under increasing temperature and precipitation conditions in the future should be taken into account. This work may provide a theoretical perspective that can be applied to the proper use and management of oasis water resources in the lower reaches of river basins like that of the Qira River.

  14. Global Climate Forcing from Albedo Change Caused by Large-scale Deforestation and Reforestation: Quantification and Attribution of Geographic Variation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jiao, Tong; Williams, Christopher A.; Ghimire, Bardan; Masek, Jeffrey; Gao, Feng; Schaaf, Crystal

    2017-01-01

    Large-scale deforestation and reforestation have contributed substantially to historical and contemporary global climate change in part through albedo-induced radiative forcing, with meaningful implications for forest management aiming to mitigate climate change. Associated warming or cooling varies widely across the globe due to a range of factors including forest type, snow cover, and insolation, but resulting geographic variation remain spoorly described and has been largely based on model assessments. This study provides an observation-based approach to quantify local and global radiative forcings from large-scale deforestation and reforestation and further examines mechanisms that result in the spatial heterogeneity of radiative forcing. We incorporate a new spatially and temporally explicit land cover-specific albedo product derived from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer with a historical land use data set (Land Use Harmonization product). Spatial variation in radiative forcing was attributed to four mechanisms, including the change in snow-covered albedo, change in snow-free albedo, snow cover fraction, and incoming solar radiation. We find an albedo-only radiative forcing (RF) of -0.819 W m(exp -2) if year 2000 forests were completely deforested and converted to croplands. Albedo RF from global reforestation of present-day croplands to recover year 1700 forests is estimated to be 0.161 W m)exp -2). Snow-cover fraction is identified as the primary factor in determining the spatial variation of radiative forcing in winter, while the magnitude of the change in snow-free albedo is the primary factor determining variations in summertime RF. Findings reinforce the notion that, for conifers at the snowier high latitudes, albedo RF diminishes the warming from forest loss and the cooling from forest gain more so than for other forest types, latitudes, and climate settings.

  15. Carbonaceous aerosols over China--review of observations, emissions, and climate forcing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Linpeng; Zhou, Xuehua; Ma, Yujie; Cao, Zhaoyu; Wu, Ruidong; Wang, Wenxing

    2016-01-01

    Carbonaceous aerosols have been attracting attention due to the influence on visibility, air quality, and regional climate. Statistical analyses based on concentration levels, spatial-temporal variations, correlations, and organic carbon (OC) to element carbon (EC) ratios from published data of OC and EC in particulate matter (PM2.5 and PM10) were carried out in order to give a carbonaceous aerosol profile in China. The results showed maxima for OC of 29.5 ± 18.2 μg C m(-3) and for EC of 8.4 ± 6.3 μg C m(-3) in winter and minima for OC of 12.9 ± 7.7 μg C m(-3) in summer and for EC of 4.6 ± 2.8 μg C m(-3) in spring. In addition, OC and EC both had higher concentrations in urban than those in rural sites. Carbonaceous aerosol levels in China are about three to seven times higher compared to those in the USA and Europe. OC and EC occupied 20 ± 6 and 7 ± 3% of PM2.5 mass and 17 ± 7 and 5 ± 3% of PM10 mass, respectively, implying that carbonaceous aerosols are the main component of PM, especially OC. Secondary organic carbon (SOC) was a significant portion of PM and contributed 41 ± 26% to OC and 8 ± 6% to PM2.5 mass. The OC/EC ratio was 3.63 ± 1.73, which, along with the good correlation between OC and EC and the OC to EC slope of 2.29, signifies that coal combustion and/or vehicular exhaust is the dominated carbonaceous aerosol source in China. These provide a primary observation-based understanding of carbonaceous aerosol pollution in China and have a great significance in improving the emission inventory and climate forcing evaluation.

  16. Radiative forcing and climate metrics for ozone precursor emissions: the impact of multi-model averaging

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. R. MacIntosh

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available Multi-model ensembles are frequently used to assess understanding of the response of ozone and methane lifetime to changes in emissions of ozone precursors such as NOx, VOCs (volatile organic compounds and CO. When these ozone changes are used to calculate radiative forcing (RF (and climate metrics such as the global warming potential (GWP and global temperature-change potential (GTP there is a methodological choice, determined partly by the available computing resources, as to whether the mean ozone (and methane concentration changes are input to the radiation code, or whether each model's ozone and methane changes are used as input, with the average RF computed from the individual model RFs. We use data from the Task Force on Hemispheric Transport of Air Pollution source–receptor global chemical transport model ensemble to assess the impact of this choice for emission changes in four regions (East Asia, Europe, North America and South Asia. We conclude that using the multi-model mean ozone and methane responses is accurate for calculating the mean RF, with differences up to 0.6% for CO, 0.7% for VOCs and 2% for NOx. Differences of up to 60% for NOx 7% for VOCs and 3% for CO are introduced into the 20 year GWP. The differences for the 20 year GTP are smaller than for the GWP for NOx, and similar for the other species. However, estimates of the standard deviation calculated from the ensemble-mean input fields (where the standard deviation at each point on the model grid is added to or subtracted from the mean field are almost always substantially larger in RF, GWP and GTP metrics than the true standard deviation, and can be larger than the model range for short-lived ozone RF, and for the 20 and 100 year GWP and 100 year GTP. The order of averaging has most impact on the metrics for NOx, as the net values for these quantities is the residual of the sum of terms of opposing signs. For example, the standard deviation for the 20 year GWP is 2–3

  17. The role of forcing and internal dynamics in explaining the ''Medieval Climate Anomaly''

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Goosse, Hugues; Crespin, Elisabeth; Dubinkina, Svetlana; Loutre, Marie-France; Sallaz-Damaz, Yoann [Universite Catholique de Louvain, Earth and Life Institute, Georges Lemaitre Centre for Earth and Climate Research, Louvain-la-Neuve (Belgium); Mann, Michael E. [Pennsylvania State University, Department of Meteorology and Earth and Environmental Systems Institute, University Park, PA (United States); Renssen, Hans [Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, Section Climate Change and Landscape Dynamics, Department of Earth Sciences, Amsterdam (Netherlands); Shindell, Drew [NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York City, NY (United States)

    2012-12-15

    Proxy reconstructions suggest that peak global temperature during the past warm interval known as the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA, roughly 950-1250 AD) has been exceeded only during the most recent decades. To better understand the origin of this warm period, we use model simulations constrained by data assimilation establishing the spatial pattern of temperature changes that is most consistent with forcing estimates, model physics and the empirical information contained in paleoclimate proxy records. These numerical experiments demonstrate that the reconstructed spatial temperature pattern of the MCA can be explained by a simple thermodynamical response of the climate system to relatively weak changes in radiative forcing combined with a modification of the atmospheric circulation, displaying some similarities with the positive phase of the so-called Arctic Oscillation, and with northward shifts in the position of the Gulf Stream and Kuroshio currents. The mechanisms underlying the MCA are thus quite different from anthropogenic mechanisms responsible for modern global warming. (orig.)

  18. Climate-forced variability of suboxia and associated N-loses in the Pacific Ocean

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, S.; Gruber, N.; Long, M. C.; Vogt, M.

    2017-12-01

    The Eastern Tropical Pacific (ETP) hosts two of the world's three Oxygen Deficient Zones (ODZs), large bodies of suboxic water that are subject to high rates of water column denitrification. In the mean, these two ODZs are responsible for about 15 to 40% of all fixed N loss in the ocean, but little is known about how this loss varies in time. Here, we use a hindcast simulation with the ocean component of the NCAR Community Earth System Model over the period 1960 to 2009 to show that Pacific ODZ structures and their associated rates of N-loss are subject to strong climate forced variability and change. In particular, El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) drives large interannual variations in the rate of water column denitrification such that mature La Niña conditions exhibit peak denitrification rates that are up to 70% higher than the mean rates, and vice versa during El Niños. At the same time, we simulate large decadal trends in the rate of Pacific N-loss, which decreases by 10 Tg y-1 from the 1960s to the 1980s and subsequently increases by 30 Tg y-1 towards 2009. We demonstrate that this large variability is the result of wind-driven changes in circulation and isopycnal structure concurrently modifying the thermocline distribution of O2 and organic matter export. Finally, we show that the decadal trends in denitrification are recorded by the isotopic signature of particulate organic nitrogen in the ETP but that the interpretation of the signals is non trivial, reflecting both physical and biogeochemical changes as well as contamination by atmospheric pollutants.

  19. Future atmospheric abundances and climate forcings from scenarios of global and regional hydrofluorocarbon (HFC) emissions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Velders, Guus J. M.; Fahey, David W.; Daniel, John S.; Andersen, Stephen O.; McFarland, Mack

    2015-12-01

    Hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) are manufactured for use as substitutes for ozone-depleting substances that are being phased out globally under Montreal Protocol regulations. While HFCs do not deplete ozone, many are potent greenhouse gases that contribute to climate change. Here, new global scenarios show that baseline emissions of HFCs could reach 4.0-5.3 GtCO2-eq yr-1 in 2050. The new baseline (or business-as-usual) scenarios are formulated for 10 HFC compounds, 11 geographic regions, and 13 use categories. The scenarios rely on detailed data reported by countries to the United Nations; projections of gross domestic product and population; and recent observations of HFC atmospheric abundances. In the baseline scenarios, by 2050 China (31%), India and the rest of Asia (23%), the Middle East and northern Africa (11%), and the USA (10%) are the principal source regions for global HFC emissions; and refrigeration (40-58%) and stationary air conditioning (21-40%) are the major use sectors. The corresponding radiative forcing could reach 0.22-0.25 W m-2 in 2050, which would be 12-24% of the increase from business-as-usual CO2 emissions from 2015 to 2050. National regulations to limit HFC use have already been adopted in the European Union, Japan and USA, and proposals have been submitted to amend the Montreal Protocol to substantially reduce growth in HFC use. Calculated baseline emissions are reduced by 90% in 2050 by implementing the North America Montreal Protocol amendment proposal. Global adoption of technologies required to meet national regulations would be sufficient to reduce 2050 baseline HFC consumption by more than 50% of that achieved with the North America proposal for most developed and developing countries.

  20. On the real-time estimation of the wheel-rail contact force by means of a new nonlinear estimator design model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Strano, Salvatore; Terzo, Mario

    2018-05-01

    The dynamics of the railway vehicles is strongly influenced by the interaction between the wheel and the rail. This kind of contact is affected by several conditioning factors such as vehicle speed, wear, adhesion level and, moreover, it is nonlinear. As a consequence, the modelling and the observation of this kind of phenomenon are complex tasks but, at the same time, they constitute a fundamental step for the estimation of the adhesion level or for the vehicle condition monitoring. This paper presents a novel technique for the real time estimation of the wheel-rail contact forces based on an estimator design model that takes into account the nonlinearities of the interaction by means of a fitting model functional to reproduce the contact mechanics in a wide range of slip and to be easily integrated in a complete model based estimator for railway vehicle.

  1. Elucidating dynamic responses of North Pacific fish populations to climatic forcing: Influence of life-history strategy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yatsu, A.; Aydin, K. Y.; King, J. R.; McFarlane, G. A.; Chiba, S.; Tadokoro, K.; Kaeriyama, M.; Watanabe, Y.

    2008-05-01

    In order to explore mechanistic linkages between low-frequency ocean/climate variability, and fish population responses, we undertook comparative studies of time-series of recruitment-related productivity and the biomass levels of fish stocks representing five life-history strategies in the northern North Pacific between the 1950s and the present. We selected seven species: Japanese sardine ( Sardinopus melanostictus) and California sardine ( Sardinopus sagax) (opportunistic strategists), walleye pollock ( Theragra chalcogramma, intermediate strategist), pink salmon ( Oncorhynchus gorbuscha, salmonic strategist), sablefish ( Anoplopoma fimbria) and Pacific halibut ( Hippoglossus stenolepis) (periodic strategists) and spiny dogfish ( Squalus acanthias, equilibrium strategist). The responses in terms of productivity of sardine, pink salmon, sablefish and halibut to climatic regime shifts were generally immediate, delayed, or no substantial responses depending on the particular regime shift year and fish stock (population). In walleye pollock, there were some periods of high productivity and low productivity, but not coincidental to climatic regime shifts, likely due to indirect climate forcing impacts on both bottom-up and top-down processes. Biomass of zooplankton and all fish stocks examined, except for spiny dogfish whose data were limited, indicated a decadal pattern with the most gradual changes in periodic strategists and most intensive and rapid changes in opportunistic strategists. Responses of sardine productivity to regime shifts were the most intense, probably due to the absence of density-dependent effects and the availability of refuges from predators when sardine biomass was extremely low. Spiny dogfish were least affected by environmental variability. Conversely, spiny dogfish are likely to withstand only modest harvest rates due to their very low intrinsic rate of increase. Thus, each life-history strategy type had a unique response to climatic

  2. Reproducing multi-model ensemble average with Ensemble-averaged Reconstructed Forcings (ERF) in regional climate modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Erfanian, A.; Fomenko, L.; Wang, G.

    2016-12-01

    Multi-model ensemble (MME) average is considered the most reliable for simulating both present-day and future climates. It has been a primary reference for making conclusions in major coordinated studies i.e. IPCC Assessment Reports and CORDEX. The biases of individual models cancel out each other in MME average, enabling the ensemble mean to outperform individual members in simulating the mean climate. This enhancement however comes with tremendous computational cost, which is especially inhibiting for regional climate modeling as model uncertainties can originate from both RCMs and the driving GCMs. Here we propose the Ensemble-based Reconstructed Forcings (ERF) approach to regional climate modeling that achieves a similar level of bias reduction at a fraction of cost compared with the conventional MME approach. The new method constructs a single set of initial and boundary conditions (IBCs) by averaging the IBCs of multiple GCMs, and drives the RCM with this ensemble average of IBCs to conduct a single run. Using a regional climate model (RegCM4.3.4-CLM4.5), we tested the method over West Africa for multiple combination of (up to six) GCMs. Our results indicate that the performance of the ERF method is comparable to that of the MME average in simulating the mean climate. The bias reduction seen in ERF simulations is achieved by using more realistic IBCs in solving the system of equations underlying the RCM physics and dynamics. This endows the new method with a theoretical advantage in addition to reducing computational cost. The ERF output is an unaltered solution of the RCM as opposed to a climate state that might not be physically plausible due to the averaging of multiple solutions with the conventional MME approach. The ERF approach should be considered for use in major international efforts such as CORDEX. Key words: Multi-model ensemble, ensemble analysis, ERF, regional climate modeling

  3. A Study of Direct and Cloud-Mediated Radiative Forcing of Climate Due to Aerosols

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, Shao-Cai

    1999-01-01

    The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has reported that in the southeastern US and eastern China, the general greenhouse warming due to anthropogenic gaseous emissions is dominated by the cooling effect of anthropogenic aerosols. To verify this model prediction in eastern China and southeastern US, we analyzed regional patterns of climate changes at 72 stations in eastern China during 1951- 94 (44 years), and at 52 stations in the southeastern US during 1949-94 (46 years) to detect the fingerprint of aerosol radiative forcing. It was found that the mean rates of change of annual mean daily, maximum, minimum temperatures and diurnal temperature range (DTR) in eastern China were 0.8, -0.2, 1.8, and -2.0 C/100 years respectively, while the mean rates of change of annual mean daily, maximum, minimum temperatures and DTR in the southeastern US were -0.2, -0.6, 0.2, and -0.8 C/100 years, respectively. This indicates that the high rate of increase in annual mean minimum temperature in eastern China results in a slightly warming trend of daily temperature, while the high rate of decrease in annual mean maximum temperature and low rate of increase in annual mean minimum temperature lead to the cooling trend of daily temperature in the southeastern US. We found that the warming from the longwave forcing due to both greenhouse gases and aerosols was completely counteracted by the shortwave aerosol forcing in the southeastern US in the past 46 years. A slightly overall warming trend in eastern China is evident; winters have become milder. This finding is explained by hypothesizing that increasing energy usage during the past 44 years has resulted in more coal and biomass burning, thus increasing the emission of absorbing soot and organic aerosols in eastern China. Such emissions, in addition to well-known Asia dust and greenhouse gases, may be responsible for the winter warming trend in eastern China that we have reported here. The sensitivity of aerosol

  4. Future Climate Impacts of Direct Radiative Forcing Anthropogenic Aerosols, Tropospheric Ozone, and Long-lived Greenhouse Gases

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Wei-Ting; Liao, Hong; Seinfeld, John H.

    2007-01-01

    Long-lived greenhouse gases (GHGs) are the most important driver of climate change over the next century. Aerosols and tropospheric ozone (O3) are expected to induce significant perturbations to the GHG-forced climate. To distinguish the equilibrium climate responses to changes in direct radiative forcing of anthropogenic aerosols, tropospheric ozone, and GHG between present day and year 2100, four 80-year equilibrium climates are simulated using a unified tropospheric chemistry-aerosol model within the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) general circulation model (GCM) 110. Concentrations of sulfate, nitrate, primary organic (POA) carbon, secondary organic (SOA) carbon, black carbon (BC) aerosols, and tropospheric ozone for present day and year 2100 are obtained a priori by coupled chemistry-aerosol GCM simulations, with emissions of aerosols, ozone, and precursors based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emissions Scenario (SRES) A2. Changing anthropogenic aerosols, tropospheric ozone, and GHG from present day to year 2100 is predicted to perturb the global annual mean radiative forcing by +0.18 (considering aerosol direct effects only), +0.65, and +6.54 W m(sup -2) at the tropopause, and to induce an equilibrium global annual mean surface temperature change of +0.14, +0.32, and +5.31 K, respectively, with the largest temperature response occurring at northern high latitudes. Anthropogenic aerosols, through their direct effect, are predicted to alter the Hadley circulation owing to an increasing interhemispheric temperature gradient, leading to changes in tropical precipitation. When changes in both aerosols and tropospheric ozone are considered, the predicted patterns of change in global circulation and the hydrological cycle are similar to those induced by aerosols alone. GHG-induced climate changes, such as amplified warming over high latitudes, weakened Hadley circulation, and increasing precipitation over the

  5. Impact of preindustrial to present-day changes in short-lived pollutant emissions on atmospheric composition and climate forcing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Naik, Vaishali; Horowitz, Larry W.; Fiore, Arlene M.; Ginoux, Paul; Mao, Jingqiu; Aghedo, Adetutu M.; Levy, Hiram

    2013-07-01

    We describe and evaluate atmospheric chemistry in the newly developed Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory chemistry-climate model (GFDL AM3) and apply it to investigate the net impact of preindustrial (PI) to present (PD) changes in short-lived pollutant emissions (ozone precursors, sulfur dioxide, and carbonaceous aerosols) and methane concentration on atmospheric composition and climate forcing. The inclusion of online troposphere-stratosphere interactions, gas-aerosol chemistry, and aerosol-cloud interactions (including direct and indirect aerosol radiative effects) in AM3 enables a more complete representation of interactions among short-lived species, and thus their net climate impact, than was considered in previous climate assessments. The base AM3 simulation, driven with observed sea surface temperature (SST) and sea ice cover (SIC) over the period 1981-2007, generally reproduces the observed mean magnitude, spatial distribution, and seasonal cycle of tropospheric ozone and carbon monoxide. The global mean aerosol optical depth in our base simulation is within 5% of satellite measurements over the 1982-2006 time period. We conduct a pair of simulations in which only the short-lived pollutant emissions and methane concentrations are changed from PI (1860) to PD (2000) levels (i.e., SST, SIC, greenhouse gases, and ozone-depleting substances are held at PD levels). From the PI to PD, we find that changes in short-lived pollutant emissions and methane have caused the tropospheric ozone burden to increase by 39% and the global burdens of sulfate, black carbon, and organic carbon to increase by factors of 3, 2.4, and 1.4, respectively. Tropospheric hydroxyl concentration decreases by 7%, showing that increases in OH sinks (methane, carbon monoxide, nonmethane volatile organic compounds, and sulfur dioxide) dominate over sources (ozone and nitrogen oxides) in the model. Combined changes in tropospheric ozone and aerosols cause a net negative top

  6. Unexpected weak seasonal climate in the western Mediterranean region during MIS 31, a high-insolation forced interglacial

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oliveira, Dulce; Sánchez Goñi, Maria Fernanda; Naughton, Filipa; Polanco-Martínez, J. M.; Jimenez-Espejo, Francisco J.; Grimalt, Joan O.; Martrat, Belen; Voelker, Antje H. L.; Trigo, Ricardo; Hodell, David; Abrantes, Fátima; Desprat, Stéphanie

    2017-04-01

    Marine Isotope Stage 31 (MIS 31) is an important analogue for ongoing and projected global warming, yet key questions remain about the regional signature of its extreme orbital forcing and intra-interglacial variability. Based on a new direct land-sea comparison in SW Iberian margin IODP Site U1385 we examine the climatic variability between 1100 and 1050 ka including the ;super interglacial; MIS 31, a period dominated by the 41-ky obliquity periodicity. Pollen and biomarker analyses at centennial-scale-resolution provide new insights into the regional vegetation, precipitation regime and atmospheric and oceanic temperature variability on orbital and suborbital timescales. Our study reveals that atmospheric and SST warmth during MIS 31 was not exceptional in this region highly sensitive to precession. Unexpectedly, this warm stage stands out as a prolonged interval of a temperate and humid climate regime with reduced seasonality, despite the high insolation (precession minima values) forcing. We find that the dominant forcing on the long-term temperate forest development was obliquity, which may have induced a decrease in summer dryness and associated reduction in seasonal precipitation contrast. Moreover, this study provides the first evidence for persistent atmospheric millennial-scale variability during this interval with multiple forest decline events reflecting repeated cooling and drying episodes in SW Iberia. Our direct land-sea comparison shows that the expression of the suborbital cooling events on SW Iberian ecosystems is modulated by the predominance of high or low-latitude forcing depending on the glacial/interglacial baseline climate states. Severe dryness and air-sea cooling is detected under the larger ice volume during glacial MIS 32 and MIS 30. The extreme episodes, which in their climatic imprint are similar to the Heinrich events, are likely related to northern latitude ice-sheet instability and a disruption of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning

  7. Assessing the role of North Atlantic freshwater forcing in millennial scale climate variability: a tropical Atlantic perspective

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dahl, Kristina A [Massachusetts Institute of Technology/Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution Joint Program, Woods Hole, MA (United States); Broccoli, Anthony J [Rutgers University, Department of Environmental Sciences, New Brunswick, NJ (United States); Stouffer, Ronald J [Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, NJ (United States)

    2005-03-01

    This study analyzes a three-member ensemble of experiments, in which 0.1 Sv of freshwater was applied to the North Atlantic for 100 years in order to address the potential for large freshwater inputs in the North Atlantic to drive abrupt climate change. The model used is the GFDL R30 coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation model. We focus in particular on the effects of this forcing on the tropical Atlantic region, which has been studied extensively by paleoclimatologists. In response to the freshwater forcing, North Atlantic meridional overturning circulation is reduced to roughly 40% by the end of the 100 year freshwater pulse. Consequently, the North Atlantic region cools by up to 8 C. The extreme cooling of the North Atlantic increases the pole-to-equator temperature gradient and requires more heat be provided to the high latitude Atlantic from the tropical Atlantic. To accommodate the increased heat requirement, the ITCZ shifts southward to allow for greater heat transport across the equator. Accompanying this southward ITCZ shift, the Northeast trade winds strengthen and precipitation patterns throughout the tropical Atlantic are altered. Specifically, precipitation in Northeast Brazil increases, and precipitation in Africa decreases slightly. In addition, we find that surface air temperatures warm over the tropical Atlantic and over Africa, but cool over northern South America. Sea-surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic warm slightly with larger warm anomalies developing in the thermocline. These responses are robust for each member of the ensemble, and have now been identified by a number of freshwater forcing studies using coupled OAGCMs. The model responses to freshwater forcing are generally smaller in magnitude, but have the same direction, as paleoclimate data from the Younger Dryas suggest. In certain cases, however, the model responses and the paleoclimate data directly contradict one another. Discrepancies between the model simulations

  8. Forced Climate Changes in West Antarctica and the Indo-Pacific by Northern Hemisphere Ice Sheet Topography

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, T. R.; Roberts, W. H. G.; Steig, E. J.; Cuffey, K. M.; Markle, B. R.; White, J. W. C.

    2017-12-01

    The behavior of the Indo-Pacific climate system across the last deglaciation is widely debated. Resolving these debates requires long term and continuous climate proxy records. Here, we use an ultra-high resolution and continuous water isotope record from an ice core in the Pacific sector of West Antarctica. In conjunction with the HadCM3 coupled ocean-atmosphere GCM, we demonstrate that the climate of both West Antarctica and the Indo-Pacific were substantially altered during the last deglaciation by the same forcing mechanism. Critically, these changes are not dependent on ENSO strength, but rather the location of deep tropical convection, which shifts at 16 ka in response to climate perturbations induced by the Laurentide Ice Sheet. The changed rainfall patterns in the tropics explain the deglacial shift from expanded-grasslands to rainforest-dominated ecosystems in Indonesia. High-frequency climate variability in the Southern Hemisphere is also changed, through a tropical Pacific teleconnection link dependent on the propogration of Rossby Waves.

  9. Added damping of a wind turbine rotor : Two-dimensional discretization expressing the nonlinear wind-force dependency

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Van der Male, P.; Van Dalen, K.N.; Metrikine, A.

    2014-01-01

    In determining wind forces on wind turbine blades, and subsequently on the tower and the foundation, the blade response velocity cannot be neglected. This velocity alters the wind force, which depends on the wind velocity relative to that of the blades This blade response velocity component of the

  10. Holocene climate change and the evidence for solar and other forcings

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Beer, J.; van Geel, B.; Battarbee, R.W.; Binney, H.A.

    2008-01-01

    Future climate change may have considerable effects on the hydrologic cycle and temperature, with significant consequences for sea level, food production, world economy, health, and biodiversity. How and why does the natural climate system vary on decadal to millennial time-scales? Do we

  11. Influence of Lorentz force, Cattaneo-Christov heat flux and viscous dissipation on the flow of micropolar fluid past a nonlinear convective stretching vertical surface

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gnaneswara Reddy, Machireddy

    2017-12-01

    The problem of micropolar fluid flow over a nonlinear stretching convective vertical surface in the presence of Lorentz force and viscous dissipation is investigated. Due to the nature of heat transfer in the flow past vertical surface, Cattaneo-Christov heat flux model effect is properly accommodated in the energy equation. The governing partial differential equations for the flow and heat transfer are converted into a set of ordinary differential equations by employing the acceptable similarity transformations. Runge-Kutta and Newton's methods are utilized to resolve the altered governing nonlinear equations. Obtained numerical results are compared with the available literature and found to be an excellent agreement. The impacts of dimensionless governing flow pertinent parameters on velocity, micropolar velocity and temperature profiles are presented graphically for two cases (linear and nonlinear) and analyzed in detail. Further, the variations of skin friction coefficient and local Nusselt number are reported with the aid of plots for the sundry flow parameters. The temperature and the related boundary enhances enhances with the boosting values of M. It is found that fluid temperature declines for larger thermal relaxation parameter. Also, it is revealed that the Nusselt number declines for the hike values of Bi.

  12. A theoretical model and experiments on the nonlinear dynamics of parallel plates subjected to laminar/turbulent squeeze-film forces

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Piteau, Philippe; Antunes, Jose

    2012-01-01

    Squeeze film dynamical effects are relevant in many industrial contexts, bearings and seals being the most conspicuous applications, but also in other industrial contexts, for instance when dealing with the seismic excitation of spent fuel racks. The significant nonlinearity of the squeeze-film forces which arise prevents the use of linearized flow models, and a fully nonlinear formulation must be used for adequate computational predictions. Because it can easily accommodate both laminar and turbulence flow effects, a simplified bulk-flow model based on gap-averaged Navier-Stokes equations, incorporating all relevant inertial and dissipative terms was previously developed by the authors, assuming a constant skin-friction coefficient. In this paper we develop an improved theoretical formulation, where the dependence of the friction coefficient on the local flow velocity is explicitly accounted for, such that it can be applied to laminar, turbulent and mixed flows. Numerical solutions for both the basic and improved nonlinear one-dimensional time-domain formulations are presented in the paper. Furthermore, we present and discuss the results of an extensive series of experiments performed at CEA/Saclay, which were performed on a test rig consisting on a long gravity-driven instrumented plate of rectangular shape colliding with a planar surface. Theoretical results stemming from both theoretical flow models are confronted with the experimental measurements, in order to assert the strengths and drawbacks of the simpler original model, as well as the improvements brought by the new but more involved flow formulation. (authors)

  13. Analytically tractable climate-carbon cycle feedbacks under 21st century anthropogenic forcing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lade, Steven J.; Donges, Jonathan F.; Fetzer, Ingo; Anderies, John M.; Beer, Christian; Cornell, Sarah E.; Gasser, Thomas; Norberg, Jon; Richardson, Katherine; Rockström, Johan; Steffen, Will

    2018-05-01

    Changes to climate-carbon cycle feedbacks may significantly affect the Earth system's response to greenhouse gas emissions. These feedbacks are usually analysed from numerical output of complex and arguably opaque Earth system models. Here, we construct a stylised global climate-carbon cycle model, test its output against comprehensive Earth system models, and investigate the strengths of its climate-carbon cycle feedbacks analytically. The analytical expressions we obtain aid understanding of carbon cycle feedbacks and the operation of the carbon cycle. Specific results include that different feedback formalisms measure fundamentally the same climate-carbon cycle processes; temperature dependence of the solubility pump, biological pump, and CO2 solubility all contribute approximately equally to the ocean climate-carbon feedback; and concentration-carbon feedbacks may be more sensitive to future climate change than climate-carbon feedbacks. Simple models such as that developed here also provide workbenches for simple but mechanistically based explorations of Earth system processes, such as interactions and feedbacks between the planetary boundaries, that are currently too uncertain to be included in comprehensive Earth system models.

  14. Chemical and climatic drivers of radiative forcing due to changes in stratospheric and tropospheric ozone over the 21st century

    Science.gov (United States)

    Banerjee, Antara; Maycock, Amanda C.; Pyle, John A.

    2018-02-01

    The ozone radiative forcings (RFs) resulting from projected changes in climate, ozone-depleting substances (ODSs), non-methane ozone precursor emissions and methane between the years 2000 and 2100 are calculated using simulations from the UM-UKCA chemistry-climate model (UK Met Office's Unified Model containing the United Kingdom Chemistry and Aerosols sub-model). Projected measures to improve air-quality through reductions in non-methane tropospheric ozone precursor emissions present a co-benefit for climate, with a net global mean ozone RF of -0.09 W m-2. This is opposed by a positive ozone RF of 0.05 W m-2 due to future decreases in ODSs, which is driven by an increase in tropospheric ozone through stratosphere-to-troposphere transport of air containing higher ozone amounts. An increase in methane abundance by more than a factor of 2 (as projected by the RCP8.5 scenario) is found to drive an ozone RF of 0.18 W m-2, which would greatly outweigh the climate benefits of non-methane tropospheric ozone precursor reductions. A small fraction (˜ 15 %) of the ozone RF due to the projected increase in methane results from increases in stratospheric ozone. The sign of the ozone RF due to future changes in climate (including the radiative effects of greenhouse gases, sea surface temperatures and sea ice changes) is shown to be dependent on the greenhouse gas emissions pathway, with a positive RF (0.05 W m-2) for RCP4.5 and a negative RF (-0.07 W m-2) for the RCP8.5 scenario. This dependence arises mainly from differences in the contribution to RF from stratospheric ozone changes. Considering the increases in tropopause height under climate change causes only small differences (≤ |0.02| W m-2) for the stratospheric, tropospheric and whole-atmosphere RFs.

  15. Synchronous fire activity in the tropical high Andes: an indication of regional climate forcing

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Roman-Cuesta, R.M.; Carmona-Moreno, C.; Lizcano, G.; New, M.; Silman, M.R.; Knoke, T.; Malhi, Y.; Oliveras Menor, I.; Asbjornsen, H.; Vuille, M.

    2014-01-01

    Global climate models suggest enhanced warming of the tropical mid and upper troposphere, with larger temperature rise rates at higher elevations. Changes in fire activity are amongst the most significant ecological consequences of rising temperatures and changing hydrological properties in

  16. Comparison of hybrid spectral-decomposition artificial neural network models for understanding climatic forcing of groundwater levels

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abrokwah, K.; O'Reilly, A. M.

    2017-12-01

    Groundwater is an important resource that is extracted every day because of its invaluable use for domestic, industrial and agricultural purposes. The need for sustaining groundwater resources is clearly indicated by declining water levels and has led to modeling and forecasting accurate groundwater levels. In this study, spectral decomposition of climatic forcing time series was used to develop hybrid wavelet analysis (WA) and moving window average (MWA) artificial neural network (ANN) models. These techniques are explored by modeling historical groundwater levels in order to provide understanding of potential causes of the observed groundwater-level fluctuations. Selection of the appropriate decomposition level for WA and window size for MWA helps in understanding the important time scales of climatic forcing, such as rainfall, that influence water levels. Discrete wavelet transform (DWT) is used to decompose the input time-series data into various levels of approximate and details wavelet coefficients, whilst MWA acts as a low-pass signal-filtering technique for removing high-frequency signals from the input data. The variables used to develop and validate the models were daily average rainfall measurements from five National Atmospheric and Oceanic Administration (NOAA) weather stations and daily water-level measurements from two wells recorded from 1978 to 2008 in central Florida, USA. Using different decomposition levels and different window sizes, several WA-ANN and MWA-ANN models for simulating the water levels were created and their relative performances compared against each other. The WA-ANN models performed better than the corresponding MWA-ANN models; also higher decomposition levels of the input signal by the DWT gave the best results. The results obtained show the applicability and feasibility of hybrid WA-ANN and MWA-ANN models for simulating daily water levels using only climatic forcing time series as model inputs.

  17. Influence of various forcings on global climate in historical times using a coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Stendel, Martin; Mogensen, Irene A.; Christensen, Jens H.

    2006-01-01

    The results of a simulation of the climate of the last five centuries with a state-of-the-art coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model are presented. The model has been driven with most relevant forcings, both natural (solar variability, volcanic aerosol) and anthropogenic (greenhouse...... gases, sulphate aerosol, land-use changes). In contrast to previous GCM studies, we have taken into account the latitudinal dependence of volcanic aerosol and the changing land cover for a period covering several centuries. We find a clear signature of large volcanic eruptions in the simulated...

  18. Applying model parameters as a driving force to a deterministic nonlinear system to detect land cover change

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Salmon, BP

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available be de- rived for Equation (8) as shown in [27]. The Poincare´- Bendixson theorem states that a differential equation with a three-dimensional phase plane can be chaotic [28]. Hence Equation (8) is a nonlinear deterministic system that can exert... model parameters. Lemma 1. The characteristics of a differential equation can be investigated with the aid of a phase plane plot, which illustrates the limit cycles of the solutions. A three-dimensional phase plane representation that is autonomous can...

  19. Cholera and shigellosis in Bangladesh: similarities and differences in population dynamics under climate forcing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pascual, M.; Cash, B.; Reiner, R.; King, A.; Emch, M.; Yunus, M.; Faruque, A. S.

    2012-12-01

    The influence of climate variability on the population dynamics of infectious diseases is considered a large scale, regional, phenomenon, and as such, has been previously addressed for cholera with temporal models that do not incorporate fine-scale spatial structure. In our previous work, evidence for a role of ENSO (El Niño Southern Oscillation) on cholera in Bangladesh was elucidated, and shown to influence the regional climate through precipitation. With a probabilistic spatial model for cholera dynamics in the megacity of Dhaka, we found that the action of climate variability (ENSO and flooding) is localized: there is a climate-sensitive urban core that acts to propagate risk to the rest of the city. Here, we consider long-term surveillance data for shigellosis, another diarrheal disease that coexists with cholera in Bangladesh. We compare the patterns of association with climate variables for these two diseases in a rural setting, as well as the spatial structure in their spatio-temporal dynamics in an urban one. Evidence for similar patterns is presented, and discussed in the context of the differences in the routes of transmission of the two diseases and the proposed role of an environmental reservoir in cholera. The similarities provide evidence for a more general influence of hydrology and of socio-economic factors underlying human susceptibility and sanitary conditions.

  20. Interannual to multidecadal climate forcings on groundwater resources of the U.S. West Coast

    Science.gov (United States)

    Velasco, Elzie M.; Gurdak, Jason J.; Dickinson, Jesse; Ferré, T.P.A.; Corona, Claudia

    2017-01-01

    Study regionThe U.S. West Coast, including the Pacific Northwest and California Coastal Basins aquifer systems.Study focusGroundwater response to interannual to multidecadal climate variability has important implications for security within the water–energy–food nexus. Here we use Singular Spectrum Analysis to quantify the teleconnections between AMO, PDO, ENSO, and PNA and precipitation and groundwater level fluctuations. The computer program DAMP was used to provide insight on the influence of soil texture, depth to water, and mean and period of a surface infiltration flux on the damping of climate signals in the vadose zone.New hydrological insights for the regionWe find that PDO, ENSO, and PNA have significant influence on precipitation and groundwater fluctuations across a north-south gradient of the West Coast, but the lower frequency climate modes (PDO) have a greater influence on hydrologic patterns than higher frequency climate modes (ENSO and PNA). Low frequency signals tend to be preserved better in groundwater fluctuations than high frequency signals, which is a function of the degree of damping of surface variable fluxes related to soil texture, depth to water, mean and period of the infiltration flux. The teleconnection patterns that exist in surface hydrologic processes are not necessarily the same as those preserved in subsurface processes, which are affected by damping of some climate variability signals within infiltrating water.

  1. Study of Radiative Forcing of Dust Aerosols and its impact on Climate Characteristics

    KAUST Repository

    Qureshi, Fawwad H

    2012-01-01

    The purpose of following project is to study the effect of dust aerosols on the radiative forcing which is directly related to the surface temperature. A single column radiative convective model is used for simulation purpose. A series

  2. Climatic effects of 1950–2050 changes in US anthropogenic aerosols – Part 1: Aerosol trends and radiative forcing

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. G. Streets

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available We calculate decadal aerosol direct and indirect (warm cloud radiative forcings from US anthropogenic sources over the 1950–2050 period. Past and future aerosol distributions are constructed using GEOS-Chem and historical emission inventories and future projections from the IPCC A1B scenario. Aerosol simulations are evaluated with observed spatial distributions and 1980–2010 trends of aerosol concentrations and wet deposition in the contiguous US. Direct and indirect radiative forcing is calculated using the GISS general circulation model and monthly mean aerosol distributions from GEOS-Chem. The radiative forcing from US anthropogenic aerosols is strongly localized over the eastern US. We find that its magnitude peaked in 1970–1990, with values over the eastern US (east of 100° W of −2.0 W m−2 for direct forcing including contributions from sulfate (−2.0 W m−2, nitrate (−0.2 W m−2, organic carbon (−0.2 W m−2, and black carbon (+0.4 W m−2. The uncertainties in radiative forcing due to aerosol radiative properties are estimated to be about 50%. The aerosol indirect effect is estimated to be of comparable magnitude to the direct forcing. We find that the magnitude of the forcing declined sharply from 1990 to 2010 (by 0.8 W m−2 direct and 1.0 W m−2 indirect, mainly reflecting decreases in SO2 emissions, and project that it will continue declining post-2010 but at a much slower rate since US SO2 emissions have already declined by almost 60% from their peak. This suggests that much of the warming effect of reducing US anthropogenic aerosol sources has already been realized. The small positive radiative forcing from US BC emissions (+0.3 W m−2 over the eastern US in 2010; 5% of the global forcing from anthropogenic BC emissions worldwide suggests that a US emission control strategy focused on BC would have only limited climate benefit.

  3. Climatic Effects of 1950-2050 Changes in US Anthropogenic Aerosols. Part 1; Aerosol Trends and Radiative Forcing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leibensperger, E. M.; Mickley, L. J.; Jacob, D. J.; Chen, W.-T.; Seinfeld, J. H.; Nenes, A.; Adams, P. J.; Streets, D. G.; Kumar, N.; Rind, D.

    2012-01-01

    We calculate decadal aerosol direct and indirect (warm cloud) radiative forcings from US anthropogenic sources over the 1950-2050 period. Past and future aerosol distributions are constructed using GEOS-Chem and historical emission inventories and future projections from the IPCC A1B scenario. Aerosol simulations are evaluated with observed spatial distributions and 1980-2010 trends of aerosol concentrations and wet deposition in the contiguous US. Direct and indirect radiative forcing is calculated using the GISS general circulation model and monthly mean aerosol distributions from GEOS-Chem. The radiative forcing from US anthropogenic aerosols is strongly localized over the eastern US. We find that its magnitude peaked in 1970-1990, with values over the eastern US (east of 100 deg W) of -2.0Wm(exp-2 for direct forcing including contributions from sulfate (-2.0Wm-2), nitrate (-0.2Wm(exp-2), organic carbon (-0.2Wm(exp-2), and black carbon (+0.4Wm(exp-2). The uncertainties in radiative forcing due to aerosol radiative properties are estimated to be about 50 %. The aerosol indirect effect is estimated to be of comparable magnitude to the direct forcing. We find that the magnitude of the forcing declined sharply from 1990 to 2010 (by 0.8Wm(exp-2) direct and 1.0Wm(exp-2 indirect), mainly reflecting decreases in SO2 emissions, and project that it will continue declining post-2010 but at a much slower rate since US SO2 emissions have already declined by almost 60% from their peak. This suggests that much of the warming effect of reducing US anthropogenic aerosol sources has already been realized. The small positive radiative forcing from US BC emissions (+0.3Wm(exp-2 over the eastern US in 2010; 5% of the global forcing from anthropogenic BC emissions worldwide) suggests that a US emission control strategy focused on BC would have only limited climate benefit.

  4. Elevated atmospheric CO2 negatively impacts photosynthesis through radiative forcing and physiology-mediated climate feedback

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhu, Peng; Zhuang, Qianlai; Ciais, Philippe; Welp, Lisa; Li, Wenyu; Xin, Qinchuan

    2017-02-01

    Increasing atmospheric CO2 affects photosynthesis involving directly increasing leaf carboxylation rates, stomatal closure, and climatic effects. The direct effects are generally thought to be positive leading to increased photosynthesis, while its climatic effects can be regionally positive or negative. These effects are usually considered to be independent from each other, but they are in fact coupled through interactions between land surface exchanges of gases and heat and the physical climate system. In particular, stomatal closure reduces evapotranspiration and increases sensible heat emissions from ecosystems, leading to decreased atmospheric moisture and precipitation and local warming. We use a coupled earth system model to attribute the influence of the increase in CO2 on gross primary productivity (GPP) during the period of 1930-2011. In our model, CO2 radiative effects cause climate change that has only a negligible effect on global GPP (a reduction of 0.9 ± 2% during the last 80 years) because of opposite responses between tropical and northern biomes. On the other hand, CO2 physiological effects on GPP are both positive, by increased carboxylation rates and water use efficiency (7.1 ± 0.48% increase), and negative, by vegetation-climate feedback reducing precipitation, as a consequence of decreased transpiration and increased sensible heat in areas without water limitation (2.7 ± 1.76% reduction).When considering the coupled atmosphere-vegetation system, negative climate feedback on photosynthesis and plant growth due to the current level of CO2 opposes 29-38% of the gains from direct fertilization effects.

  5. Forcing of a photochemical air quality model with atmospheric fields simulated by a regional climate model

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Naidoo, M

    2010-10-01

    Full Text Available to the enhanced greenhouse effect (e.g. Engelbrecht et al, 2009). Such changes are likely to influence the future transport and chemistry of air pollutants over the region. The complexity in which climate change may affect regional air quality is evident...

  6. Climatic forcing before, during, and after the 8.2 Kyr B.P. global ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    This paper attempts at full characterization of the unique global 8.2 Kyr B.P. cooling event. Signifi- ... of its global character and magnitude and occur- rence in the ... in the 1 A.U. interplanetary space, and is inversely correlated with solar activity. It is not influenced by any changes in the geomagnetic field strength or climate.

  7. The CSIRO Mk3L climate system model version 1.0 – Part 2: Response to external forcings

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. J. Phipps

    2012-05-01

    Full Text Available The CSIRO Mk3L climate system model is a coupled general circulation model, designed primarily for millennial-scale climate simulation and palaeoclimate research. Mk3L includes components which describe the atmosphere, ocean, sea ice and land surface, and combines computational efficiency with a stable and realistic control climatology. It is freely available to the research community. This paper evaluates the response of the model to external forcings which correspond to past and future changes in the climate system.

    A simulation of the mid-Holocene climate is performed, in which changes in the seasonal and meridional distribution of incoming solar radiation are imposed. Mk3L correctly simulates increased summer temperatures at northern mid-latitudes and cooling in the tropics. However, it is unable to capture some of the regional-scale features of the mid-Holocene climate, with the precipitation over Northern Africa being deficient. The model simulates a reduction of between 7 and 15% in the amplitude of El Niño-Southern Oscillation, a smaller decrease than that implied by the palaeoclimate record. However, the realism of the simulated ENSO is limited by the model's relatively coarse spatial resolution.

    Transient simulations of the late Holocene climate are then performed. The evolving distribution of insolation is imposed, and an acceleration technique is applied and assessed. The model successfully captures the temperature changes in each hemisphere and the upward trend in ENSO variability. However, the lack of a dynamic vegetation scheme does not allow it to simulate an abrupt desertification of the Sahara.

    To assess the response of Mk3L to other forcings, transient simulations of the last millennium are performed. Changes in solar irradiance, atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations and volcanic emissions are applied to the model. The model is again broadly successful at simulating larger-scale changes in the

  8. The Pedersen current carried by electrons: a non-linear response of the ionosphere to magnetospheric forcing

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. C. Buchert

    2008-09-01

    Full Text Available Observations by the EISCAT Svalbard radar show that electron temperatures Te in the cusp electrojet reach up to about 4000 K. The heat is tapped and converted from plasma convection in the near Earth space by a Pedersen current that is carried by electrons due to the presence of irregularities and their demagnetising effect. The heat is transfered to the neutral gas by collisions. In order to enhance Te to such high temperatures the maximally possible dissipation at 50% demagnetisation must nearly be reached. The effective Pedersen conductances are found to be enhanced by up to 60% compared to classical values. Conductivities and conductances respond significantly to variations of the electric field strength E, and "Ohm's law" for the ionosphere becomes non-linear for large E.

  9. On Interactions of Oscillation Modes for a Weakly Non-Linear Undamped Elastic Beam with AN External Force

    Science.gov (United States)

    BOERTJENS, G. J.; VAN HORSSEN, W. T.

    2000-08-01

    In this paper an initial-boundary value problem for the vertical displacement of a weakly non-linear elastic beam with an harmonic excitation in the horizontal direction at the ends of the beam is studied. The initial-boundary value problem can be regarded as a simple model describing oscillations of flexible structures like suspension bridges or iced overhead transmission lines. Using a two-time-scales perturbation method an approximation of the solution of the initial-boundary value problem is constructed. Interactions between different oscillation modes of the beam are studied. It is shown that for certain external excitations, depending on the phase of an oscillation mode, the amplitude of specific oscillation modes changes.

  10. Nonlinear Force-free Field Extrapolation of a Coronal Magnetic Flux Rope Supporting a Large-scale Solar Filament from a Photospheric Vector Magnetogram

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jiang, Chaowei; Wu, S. T.; Feng, Xueshang; Hu, Qiang

    2014-05-01

    Solar filaments are commonly thought to be supported in magnetic dips, in particular, in those of magnetic flux ropes (FRs). In this Letter, based on the observed photospheric vector magnetogram, we implement a nonlinear force-free field (NLFFF) extrapolation of a coronal magnetic FR that supports a large-scale intermediate filament between an active region and a weak polarity region. This result is a first, in the sense that current NLFFF extrapolations including the presence of FRs are limited to relatively small-scale filaments that are close to sunspots and along main polarity inversion lines (PILs) with strong transverse field and magnetic shear, and the existence of an FR is usually predictable. In contrast, the present filament lies along the weak-field region (photospheric field strength barbs very well, which strongly supports the FR-dip model for filaments. The filament is stably sustained because the FR is weakly twisted and strongly confined by the overlying closed arcades.

  11. Study of Radiative Forcing of Dust Aerosols and its impact on Climate Characteristics

    KAUST Repository

    Qureshi, Fawwad H

    2012-12-01

    The purpose of following project is to study the effect of dust aerosols on the radiative forcing which is directly related to the surface temperature. A single column radiative convective model is used for simulation purpose. A series of simulations have been performed by varying the amount of dust aerosols present in the atmosphere to study the trends in ground temperature, heating rate and radiative forcing for both its longwave and shortwave components. A case study for dust storm is also performed as dust storms are common in Arabian Peninsula. A sensitivity analyses is also performed to study the relationship of surface temperature minimum and maximum against aerosol concentration, single scattering albedo and asymmetry factor. These analyses are performed to get more insight into the role of dust aerosols on radiative forcing.

  12. Man -made greenhouse gases trigger unified force to start global warming impacts referred to as climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Karishnan, K.J.; Kalam, A.

    2011-01-01

    Global warming problems due to man-made greenhouse gases (GHGs), appear to be a serious concern and threat to the globe. CO/sub 2/, O/sub 3, NOx and HFC's are the main greenhouse gases and CO/sub 2/ is one of the main cause of global warming. CO/sub 2/ is emitted from burning fossil fuels to produce electricity from power plants and burning of gasoline in vehicles and airplanes. Global greenhouse gases and its sources in regions are discussed in this paper. This paper initially discusses the CO/sub 2/ emissions and the recycle of CO/sub 2/ in biodiesel. This paper mainly focuses on 'Unified Force'. The increase of H/sub 2/O in the sea due to warming of the globe triggers the 'Unified Force' or 'Self-Compressive Surrounding Pressure Force' which is proportional to the H/sub 2/O level in the sea to start global warming impacts referred to as climate change. This paper also points out the climate change and the ten surprising results of global warming. Finally, this paper suggests switching from fossil fuel technology to green energy technologies like biodiesel which recycles CO/sub 2/ emissions and also Hydrogen Energy and Fuel Cell Technologies which eradicates global warming impacts. The benefits of switching from fossil fuel to biodiesel and Hydrogen Energy utilization includes reduction of greenhouse gas emissions and pollution, economic independence by having distributed production and burning of biodiesel does not add extra CO/sub 2/ to the air that contributes global warming impacts. (author)

  13. Geological and climatic forces driving speciation in the continentally distributed trilling chorus frogs (Pseudacris).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lemmon, Emily Moriarty; Lemmon, Alan R; Cannatella, David C

    2007-09-01

    Tertiary geological events and Quaternary climatic fluctuations have been proposed as important factors of speciation in the North American flora and fauna. Few studies, however, have rigorously tested hypotheses regarding the specific factors driving divergence of taxa. Here, we test explicit speciation hypotheses by correlating geologic events with divergence times among species in the continentally distributed trilling chorus frogs (Pseudacris). In particular, we ask whether marine inundation of the Mississippi Embayment, uplift of the Appalachian Mountains, or modification of the ancient Teays-Mahomet River system contributed to speciation. To examine the plausibility of ancient rivers causing divergence, we tested whether modern river systems inhibit gene flow. Additionally, we compared the effects of Quaternary climatic factors (glaciation and aridification) on levels of genetic variation. Divergence time estimates using penalized likelihood and coalescent approaches indicate that the major lineages of chorus frogs diversified during the Tertiary, and also exclude Quaternary climate change as a factor in speciation of chorus frogs. We show the first evidence that inundation of the Mississippi Embayment contributed to speciation. We reject the hypotheses that Cenozoic uplift of the Appalachians and that diversion of the Teays-Mahomet River contributed to speciation in this clade. We find that by reducing gene flow, rivers have the potential to cause divergence of lineages. Finally, we demonstrate that populations in areas affected by Quaternary glaciation and aridification have reduced levels of genetic variation compared to those from more equable regions, suggesting recent colonization.

  14. Climate forcing and response to idealized changes in surface latent and sensible heat

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ban-Weiss, George A; Cao Long; Pongratz, Julia; Caldeira, Ken; Bala, Govindasamy

    2011-01-01

    Land use and land cover changes affect the partitioning of latent and sensible heat, which impacts the broader climate system. Increased latent heat flux to the atmosphere has a local cooling influence known as 'evaporative cooling', but this energy will be released back to the atmosphere wherever the water condenses. However, the extent to which local evaporative cooling provides a global cooling influence has not been well characterized. Here, we perform a highly idealized set of climate model simulations aimed at understanding the effects that changes in the balance between surface sensible and latent heating have on the global climate system. We find that globally adding a uniform 1 W m -2 source of latent heat flux along with a uniform 1 W m -2 sink of sensible heat leads to a decrease in global mean surface air temperature of 0.54 ± 0.04 K. This occurs largely as a consequence of planetary albedo increases associated with an increase in low elevation cloudiness caused by increased evaporation. Thus, our model results indicate that, on average, when latent heating replaces sensible heating, global, and not merely local, surface temperatures decrease.

  15. The Flux-Anomaly-Forced Model Intercomparison Project (FAFMIP) Contribution to CMIP6: Investigation of Sea-Level and Ocean Climate Change in Response to CO2 Forcing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gregory, Jonathan M.; Bouttes, Nathaelle; Griffies, Stephen M.; Haak, Helmuth; Hurlin, William J.; Jungclaus, Johann; Kelley, Maxwell; Lee, Warren G.; Marshall, John; Romanou, Anastasia; hide

    2016-01-01

    The Flux-Anomaly-Forced Model Intercomparison Project (FAFMIP) aims to investigate the spread in simulations of sea-level and ocean climate change in response to CO2 forcing by atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs). It is particularly motivated by the uncertainties in projections of ocean heat uptake, global-mean sealevel rise due to thermal expansion and the geographical patterns of sea-level change due to ocean density and circulation change. FAFMIP has three tier-1 experiments, in which prescribed surface flux perturbations of momentum, heat and freshwater respectively are applied to the ocean in separate AOGCM simulations. All other conditions are as in the pre-industrial control. The prescribed fields are typical of pattern and magnitude of changes in these fluxes projected by AOGCMs for doubled CO2 concentration. Five groups have tested the experimental design with existing AOGCMs. Their results show diversity in the pattern and magnitude of changes, with some common qualitative features. Heat and water flux perturbation cause the dipole in sea-level change in the North Atlantic, while momentum and heat flux perturbation cause the gradient across the Antarctic Circumpolar Current. The Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) declines in response to the heat flux perturbation, and there is a strong positive feedback on this effect due to the consequent cooling of sea-surface temperature in the North Atlantic, which enhances the local heat input to the ocean. The momentum and water flux perturbations do not substantially affect the AMOC. Heat is taken up largely as a passive tracer in the Southern Ocean, which is the region of greatest heat input, while the weakening of the AMOC causes redistribution of heat towards lower latitudes. Future analysis of these and other phenomena with the wider range of CMIP6 FAFMIP AOGCMs will benefit from new diagnostics of temperature and salinity tendencies, which will enable investigation of the model

  16. Chemical and climatic drivers of radiative forcing due to changes in stratospheric and tropospheric ozone over the 21st century

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Banerjee

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available The ozone radiative forcings (RFs resulting from projected changes in climate, ozone-depleting substances (ODSs, non-methane ozone precursor emissions and methane between the years 2000 and 2100 are calculated using simulations from the UM-UKCA chemistry–climate model (UK Met Office's Unified Model containing the United Kingdom Chemistry and Aerosols sub-model. Projected measures to improve air-quality through reductions in non-methane tropospheric ozone precursor emissions present a co-benefit for climate, with a net global mean ozone RF of −0.09 W m−2. This is opposed by a positive ozone RF of 0.05 W m−2 due to future decreases in ODSs, which is driven by an increase in tropospheric ozone through stratosphere-to-troposphere transport of air containing higher ozone amounts. An increase in methane abundance by more than a factor of 2 (as projected by the RCP8.5 scenario is found to drive an ozone RF of 0.18 W m−2, which would greatly outweigh the climate benefits of non-methane tropospheric ozone precursor reductions. A small fraction (∼ 15 % of the ozone RF due to the projected increase in methane results from increases in stratospheric ozone. The sign of the ozone RF due to future changes in climate (including the radiative effects of greenhouse gases, sea surface temperatures and sea ice changes is shown to be dependent on the greenhouse gas emissions pathway, with a positive RF (0.05 W m−2 for RCP4.5 and a negative RF (−0.07 W m−2 for the RCP8.5 scenario. This dependence arises mainly from differences in the contribution to RF from stratospheric ozone changes. Considering the increases in tropopause height under climate change causes only small differences (≤ |0.02| W m−2 for the stratospheric, tropospheric and whole-atmosphere RFs.

  17. On the motion of non-linear oscillators with a fractional-order restoring force and time variable parameters

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kovacic, Ivana

    2009-01-01

    An analytical approach to determine the approximate solution for the periodic motion of non-conservative oscillators with a fractional-order restoring force and slowly varying parameters is presented. The solution has the form of the first-order differential equation for the amplitude and phase of motion. The method used is based on the combination of the Krylov-Bogoliubov method with Hamilton's variational principle with the uncommutative rule for the variation of velocity. The conservative systems with slowly varying parameters are also considered. The corresponding adiabatic invariant is obtained. Two examples are given to illustrate derived theoretical results.

  18. Non-linear response of the Golo River system, Corsica, France, to Late Quaternary climatic and sea level variations

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Forzoni, A.; Storms, J.E.A.; Reimann, T.; Moreau, J.; Jouet, G.

    2015-01-01

    Disentangling the impact of climatic and sea level variations on fluvio-deltaic stratigraphy is still an outstanding question in sedimentary geology and geomorphology. We used the Golo River system, Corsica, France, as a natural laboratory to investigate the impact of Late Quaternary climate and sea

  19. A novel vehicle dynamics stability control algorithm based on the hierarchical strategy with constrain of nonlinear tyre forces

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Liang; Jia, Gang; Chen, Jie; Zhu, Hongjun; Cao, Dongpu; Song, Jian

    2015-08-01

    Direct yaw moment control (DYC), which differentially brakes the wheels to produce a yaw moment for the vehicle stability in a steering process, is an important part of electric stability control system. In this field, most control methods utilise the active brake pressure with a feedback controller to adjust the braked wheel. However, the method might lead to a control delay or overshoot because of the lack of a quantitative project relationship between target values from the upper stability controller to the lower pressure controller. Meanwhile, the stability controller usually ignores the implementing ability of the tyre forces, which might be restrained by the combined-slip dynamics of the tyre. Therefore, a novel control algorithm of DYC based on the hierarchical control strategy is brought forward in this paper. As for the upper controller, a correctional linear quadratic regulator, which not only contains feedback control but also contains feed forward control, is introduced to deduce the object of the stability yaw moment in order to guarantee the yaw rate and side-slip angle stability. As for the medium and lower controller, the quantitative relationship between the vehicle stability object and the target tyre forces of controlled wheels is proposed to achieve smooth control performance based on a combined-slip tyre model. The simulations with the hardware-in-the-loop platform validate that the proposed algorithm can improve the stability of the vehicle effectively.

  20. Nonlinear response of a forced van der Pol-Duffing oscillator at non-resonant bifurcations of codimension two

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ji, J.C.; Zhang, N.

    2009-01-01

    Non-resonant bifurcations of codimension two may appear in the controlled van der Pol-Duffing oscillator when two critical time delays corresponding to a double Hopf bifurcation have the same value. With the aid of centre manifold theorem and the method of multiple scales, the non-resonant response and two types of primary resonances of the forced van der Pol-Duffing oscillator at non-resonant bifurcations of codimension two are investigated by studying the possible solutions and their stability of the four-dimensional ordinary differential equations on the centre manifold. It is shown that the non-resonant response of the forced oscillator may exhibit quasi-periodic motions on a two- or three-dimensional (2D or 3D) torus. The primary resonant responses admit single and mixed solutions and may exhibit periodic motions or quasi-periodic motions on a 2D torus. Illustrative examples are presented to interpret the dynamics of the controlled system in terms of two dummy unfolding parameters and exemplify the periodic and quasi-periodic motions. The analytical predictions are found to be in good agreement with the results of numerical integration of the original delay differential equation.

  1. Effect of Perturbations in Coriolis and Centrifugal Forces on the Nonlinear Stability of Equilibrium Point in Robe's Restricted Circular Three-Body Problem

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. P. Hallan

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available The effect of perturbations in Coriolis and cetrifugal forces on the nonlinear stability of the equilibrium point of the Robe's (1977 restricted circular three-body problem has been studied when the density parameter K is zero. By applying Kolmogorov-Arnold-Moser (KAM theory, it has been found that the equilibrium point is stable for all mass ratios μ in the range of linear stability 8/9+(2/3((43/25ϵ1−(10/3ϵ<μ<1, where ϵ and ϵ1 are, respectively, the perturbations in Coriolis and centrifugal forces, except for five mass ratios μ1=0.93711086−1.12983217ϵ+1.50202694ϵ1, μ2 = 0.9672922−0.5542091ϵ+ 1.2443968ϵ1, μ3=0.9459503−0.70458206ϵ+ 1.28436549ϵ1, μ4=0.9660792−0.30152273ϵ + 1.11684064ϵ1, μ5=0.893981−2.37971679ϵ + 1.22385421ϵ1, where the theory is not applicable.

  2. Climate Response to Negative Greenhouse Gas Radiative Forcing in Polar Winter

    Science.gov (United States)

    Flanner, M. G.; Huang, X.; Chen, X.; Krinner, G.

    2018-02-01

    Greenhouse gas (GHG) additions to Earth's atmosphere initially reduce global outgoing longwave radiation, thereby warming the planet. In select environments with temperature inversions, however, increased GHG concentrations can actually increase local outgoing longwave radiation. Negative top of atmosphere and effective radiative forcing (ERF) from this situation give the impression that local surface temperatures could cool in response to GHG increases. Here we consider an extreme scenario in which GHG concentrations are increased only within the warmest layers of winter near-surface inversions of the Arctic and Antarctic. We find, using a fully coupled Earth system model, that the underlying surface warms despite the GHG addition exerting negative ERF and cooling the troposphere in the vicinity of the GHG increase. This unique radiative forcing and thermal response is facilitated by the high stability of the polar winter atmosphere, which inhibit thermal mixing and amplify the impact of surface radiative forcing on surface temperature. These findings also suggest that strategies to exploit negative ERF via injections of short-lived GHGs into inversion layers would likely be unsuccessful in cooling the planetary surface.

  3. Global warming and climate forcing by recent albedo changes on Mars

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fenton, L.K.; Geissler, P.E.; Haberle, R.M.

    2007-01-01

    For hundreds of years, scientists have tracked the changing appearance of Mars, first by hand drawings and later by photographs. Because of this historical record, many classical albedo patterns have long been known to shift in appearance over time. Decadal variations of the martian surface albedo are generally attributed to removal and deposition of small amounts of relatively bright dust on the surface. Large swaths of the surface (up to 56 million km2) have been observed to darken or brighten by 10 per cent or more. It is unknown, however, how these albedo changes affect wind circulation, dust transport and the feedback between these processes and the martian climate. Here we present predictions from a Mars general circulation model, indicating that the observed interannual albedo alterations strongly influence the martian environment. Results indicate enhanced wind stress in recently darkened areas and decreased wind stress in brightened areas, producing a positive feedback system in which the albedo changes strengthen the winds that generate the changes. The simulations also predict a net annual global warming of surface air temperatures by ???0.65 K, enhancing dust lifting by increasing the likelihood of dust devil generation. The increase in global dust lifting by both wind stress and dust devils may affect the mechanisms that trigger large dust storm initiation, a poorly understood phenomenon, unique to Mars. In addition, predicted increases in summertime air temperatures at high southern latitudes would contribute to the rapid and steady scarp retreat that has been observed in the south polar residual ice for the past four Mars years. Our results suggest that documented albedo changes affect recent climate change and large-scale weather patterns on Mars, and thus albedo variations are a necessary component of future atmospheric and climate studies. ??2007 Nature Publishing Group.

  4. Water Security, Climate Forcings and Public Health Impacts in Emerging Regions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Serman, E. A.; Akanda, A. S.; Craver, V.; Boving, T. B.

    2014-12-01

    Our world is rapidly urbanizing, with more than 80% of world's population is expected to be living in a city by the end of the century. A majority of these nations are rapidly urbanizing due to massive rural-to-urban migratory trends, with rapid development of unplanned urban settlements, or slums, with lack of adequate water or sanitation facilities and other municipal amenities. With global environmental change, natural disasters will expose millions more to drought, floods, and disease epidemics, and existing vulnerabilities will worsen. At the same time, rapid urbanization and fast changing land-use leads to widespread damage of infrastructure by stormwater, especially in lowlands and economically poor areas. The factor that consistently stands out among different cities from both the developed and the developing worlds is that the slums are typically the most vulnerable to water related natural hazards and climatic threats, such as water scarcity and quality issues in drought conditions, or water and sanitation breakdown and stormwater contamination problems. Onsite or decentralized water, wastewater and stormwater treatment as well as point-of-use water treatment options can be an economic, safe, and reliable alternative to conventional large-scale treatment especially, in urban fringes as well as rural areas. These systems can be designed to fit communities in terms of their economic, cultural, environmental, and demographic resources. As part of this study, we develop a database of urban water quality and quantity indices such as with urban land-use, water usage, climate, and socio-economic characteristics in various emerging regions in the world. We analyze past and current data to identify and quantify long-term trends and the impacts of large-scale climatic and anthropogenic changes on urban hydrology and health impacts. We specifically focus on five major cities from distinct groups of countries and geographies: Providence, RI, USA from the developed

  5. Solar forcing of climate during the last millennium recorded in lake sediments from northern Sweden

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kokfelt, Ulla; Muscheler, Raimund

    2013-01-01

    century. Periods of low solar activity are associated with minima in minerogenic material and vice versa. A comparison between the sunspot cycle and a long instrumental series of summer precipitation further reveals a link between the 11-year solar cycle and summer precipitation variability since around...... 1960. Solar minima are in this period associated with minima in summer precipitation, whereas the amount of summer precipitation increases during periods with higher solar activity. Our results suggest that the climate responds to both the 11-year solar cycle and to long-term changes in solar activity...... and in particular solar minima, causing dry conditions with resulting decreased runoff....

  6. Future discharge drought across climate regions around the world modelled with a synthetic hydrological modelling approach forced by three general circulation models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wanders, N.; Van Lanen, H. A. J.

    2015-03-01

    Hydrological drought characteristics (drought in groundwater and streamflow) likely will change in the 21st century as a result of climate change. The magnitude and directionality of these changes and their dependency on climatology and catchment characteristics, however, is uncertain. In this study a conceptual hydrological model was forced by downscaled and bias-corrected outcome from three general circulation models for the SRES A2 emission scenario (GCM forced models), and the WATCH Forcing Data set (reference model). The threshold level method was applied to investigate drought occurrence, duration and severity. Results for the control period (1971-2000) show that the drought characteristics of each GCM forced model reasonably agree with the reference model for most of the climate types, suggesting that the climate models' results after post-processing produce realistic outcomes for global drought analyses. For the near future (2021-2050) and far future (2071-2100) the GCM forced models show a decrease in drought occurrence for all major climates around the world and increase of both average drought duration and deficit volume of the remaining drought events. The largest decrease in hydrological drought occurrence is expected in cold (D) climates where global warming results in a decreased length of the snow season and an increased precipitation. In the dry (B) climates the smallest decrease in drought occurrence is expected to occur, which probably will lead to even more severe water scarcity. However, in the extreme climate regions (desert and polar), the drought analysis for the control period showed that projections of hydrological drought characteristics are most uncertain. On a global scale the increase in hydrological drought duration and severity in multiple regions will lead to a higher impact of drought events, which should motivate water resource managers to timely anticipate the increased risk of more severe drought in groundwater and streamflow

  7. Relationship between sea level and climate forcing by CO2 on geological timescales.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Foster, Gavin L; Rohling, Eelco J

    2013-01-22

    On 10(3)- to 10(6)-year timescales, global sea level is determined largely by the volume of ice stored on land, which in turn largely reflects the thermal state of the Earth system. Here we use observations from five well-studied time slices covering the last 40 My to identify a well-defined and clearly sigmoidal relationship between atmospheric CO(2) and sea level on geological (near-equilibrium) timescales. This strongly supports the dominant role of CO(2) in determining Earth's climate on these timescales and suggests that other variables that influence long-term global climate (e.g., topography, ocean circulation) play a secondary role. The relationship between CO(2) and sea level we describe portrays the "likely" (68% probability) long-term sea-level response after Earth system adjustment over many centuries. Because it appears largely independent of other boundary condition changes, it also may provide useful long-range predictions of future sea level. For instance, with CO(2) stabilized at 400-450 ppm (as required for the frequently quoted "acceptable warming" of 2 °C), or even at AD 2011 levels of 392 ppm, we infer a likely (68% confidence) long-term sea-level rise of more than 9 m above the present. Therefore, our results imply that to avoid significantly elevated sea level in the long term, atmospheric CO(2) should be reduced to levels similar to those of preindustrial times.

  8. Modeling very large-fire occurrences over the continental United States from weather and climate forcing

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Barbero, R; Abatzoglou, J T; Steel, E A; K Larkin, Narasimhan

    2014-01-01

    Very large-fires (VLFs) have widespread impacts on ecosystems, air quality, fire suppression resources, and in many regions account for a majority of total area burned. Empirical generalized linear models of the largest fires (>5000 ha) across the contiguous United States (US) were developed at ∼60 km spatial and weekly temporal resolutions using solely atmospheric predictors. Climate−fire relationships on interannual timescales were evident, with wetter conditions than normal in the previous growing season enhancing VLFs probability in rangeland systems and with concurrent long-term drought enhancing VLFs probability in forested systems. Information at sub-seasonal timescales further refined these relationships, with short-term fire weather being a significant predictor in rangelands and fire danger indices linked to dead fuel moisture being a significant predictor in forested lands. Models demonstrated agreement in capturing the observed spatial and temporal variability including the interannual variability of VLF occurrences within most ecoregions. Furthermore the model captured the observed increase in VLF occurrences across parts of the southwestern and southeastern US from 1984 to 2010 suggesting that, irrespective of changes in fuels and land management, climatic factors have become more favorable for VLF occurrence over the past three decades in some regions. Our modeling framework provides a basis for simulations of future VLF occurrences from climate projections. (letter)

  9. Organic condensation: A vital link connecting aerosol formation to climate forcing (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Riipinen, I.; Pierce, J. R.; Yli-Juuti, T.; Nieminen, T.; Häkkinen, S.; Ehn, M.; Junninen, H.; Lehtipalo, K.; Petdjd, T. T.; Slowik, J. G.; Chang, R. Y.; Shantz, N. C.; Abbatt, J.; Leaitch, W. R.; Kerminen, V.; Worsnop, D. R.; Pandis, S. N.; Donahue, N. M.; Kulmala, M. T.

    2010-12-01

    Aerosol-cloud interactions represent the largest uncertainty in calculations of Earth’s radiative forcing. Number concentrations of atmospheric aerosol particles are in the core of this uncertainty, as they govern the numbers of cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) and influence the albedo and lifetime of clouds. Aerosols also impair air quality through their adverse effects on atmospheric visibility and human health. The ultrafine fraction ( 100 nm) and enhance the loss of ultrafine particles. Primary organic aerosol (POA) contributes to the large end of the aerosol size distribution, enhancing the scavenging of the ultrafine particles.

  10. The asymmetric evolution of the Colombian Eastern Cordillera. Tectonic inheritance or climatic forcing? New evidence from thermochronology and sedimentology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ramirez-Arias, Juan Carlos; Mora, Andrés; Rubiano, Jorge; Duddy, Ian; Parra, Mauricio; Moreno, Nestor; Stockli, Daniel; Casallas, Wilson

    2012-11-01

    New thermochronological data, facies, paleocurrents and provenance allow us to refine the chronology of deformation in the central segment of the Colombian Eastern Cordillera. Based on a new extensive AFT dataset, we document the spatial evolution of active deformation, from the axial zone of the Eastern Cordillera at about 50 Ma in to active growth of the frontal thin skinned structures in Late Miocene time. Paleocurrents allow us to push backwards into the Middle to Early Late-Miocene the emergence of the easternmost frontal thrust; whereas careful assessment of exposure gates tied to AFT data enable to refine the unroofing history for Eocene to Miocene times. Based on that, we produced a kinematically restored cross section with higher resolution than previous assessments. Using these datasets, we compare the evolution of the central segment of the Eastern Cordillera in this region with the evolution of adjacent areas in the context of climatic forcing of orogenic evolution. We find that in this region and, in the Eastern Cordillera in general, tectonic inheritance and transpression exert an initial dominant control on the initial orogen asymmetry, which is later enhanced due to an orographically-focused erosion. We therefore suggest that it is not climate alone the factor controlling orogenic asymmetry in the Eastern Cordillera of Colombia.

  11. Climate

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fellous, J.L.

    2005-02-01

    This book starts with a series of about 20 preconceived ideas about climate and climatic change and analyses each of them in the light of the present day knowledge. Using this approach, it makes a status of the reality of the climatic change, of its causes and of the measures to be implemented to limit its impacts and reduce its most harmful consequences. (J.S.)

  12. The large contribution of projected HFC emissions to future climate forcing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Velders, Guus J M; Fahey, David W; Daniel, John S; McFarland, Mack; Andersen, Stephen O

    2009-07-07

    The consumption and emissions of hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) are projected to increase substantially in the coming decades in response to regulation of ozone depleting gases under the Montreal Protocol. The projected increases result primarily from sustained growth in demand for refrigeration, air-conditioning (AC) and insulating foam products in developing countries assuming no new regulation of HFC consumption or emissions. New HFC scenarios are presented based on current hydrochlorofluorocarbon (HCFC) consumption in leading applications, patterns of replacements of HCFCs by HFCs in developed countries, and gross domestic product (GDP) growth. Global HFC emissions significantly exceed previous estimates after 2025 with developing country emissions as much as 800% greater than in developed countries in 2050. Global HFC emissions in 2050 are equivalent to 9-19% (CO(2)-eq. basis) of projected global CO(2) emissions in business-as-usual scenarios and contribute a radiative forcing equivalent to that from 6-13 years of CO(2) emissions near 2050. This percentage increases to 28-45% compared with projected CO(2) emissions in a 450-ppm CO(2) stabilization scenario. In a hypothetical scenario based on a global cap followed by 4% annual reductions in consumption, HFC radiative forcing is shown to peak and begin to decline before 2050.

  13. Historical versus contemporary climate forcing on the annual nesting variability of loggerhead sea turtles in the Northwest Atlantic Ocean.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michael D Arendt

    Full Text Available A recent analysis suggested that historical climate forcing on the oceanic habitat of neonate sea turtles explained two-thirds of interannual variability in contemporary loggerhead (Caretta caretta sea turtle nest counts in Florida, where nearly 90% of all nesting by this species in the Northwest Atlantic Ocean occurs. Here, we show that associations between annual nest counts and climate conditions decades prior to nest counts and those conditions one year prior to nest counts were not significantly different. Examination of annual nest count and climate data revealed that statistical artifacts influenced the reported 31-year lag association with nest counts. The projected importance of age 31 neophytes to annual nest counts between 2020 and 2043 was modeled using observed nest counts between 1989 and 2012. Assuming consistent survival rates among cohorts for a 5% population growth trajectory and that one third of the mature female population nests annually, the 41% decline in annual nest counts observed during 1998-2007 was not projected for 2029-2038. This finding suggests that annual nest count trends are more influenced by remigrants than neophytes. Projections under the 5% population growth scenario also suggest that the Peninsular Recovery Unit could attain the demographic recovery criteria of 106,100 annual nests by 2027 if nest counts in 2019 are at least comparable to 2012. Because the first year of life represents only 4% of the time elapsed through age 31, cumulative survival at sea across decades explains most cohort variability, and thus, remigrant population size. Pursuant to the U.S. Endangered Species Act, staggered implementation of protection measures for all loggerhead life stages has taken place since the 1970s. We suggest that the 1998-2007 nesting decline represented a lagged perturbation response to historical anthropogenic impacts, and that subsequent nest count increases since 2008 reflect a potential recovery response.

  14. Sensitivity of Pliocene Arctic climate to orbital forcing, atmospheric CO2 and sea ice albedo parameterisation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Howell, Fergus W.; Haywood, Alan M.; Dowsett, Harry J.; Pickering, Steven J.

    2016-01-01

    General circulation model (GCM) simulations of the mid-Pliocene Warm Period (mPWP, 3.264 to 3.025 Myr ago) do not reproduce the magnitude of Northern Hemisphere high latitude surface air and sea surface temperature (SAT and SST) warming that proxy data indicate. There is also large uncertainty regarding the state of sea ice cover in the mPWP. Evidence for both perennial and seasonal mPWP Arctic sea ice is found through analyses of marine sediments, whilst in a multi-model ensemble of mPWP climate simulations, half of the ensemble simulated ice-free summer Arctic conditions. Given the strong influence that sea ice exerts on high latitude temperatures, an understanding of the nature of mPWP Arctic sea ice would be highly beneficial.

  15. A global classification of coastal flood hazard climates associated with large-scale oceanographic forcing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rueda, Ana; Vitousek, Sean; Camus, Paula; Tomás, Antonio; Espejo, Antonio; Losada, Inigo J; Barnard, Patrick L; Erikson, Li H; Ruggiero, Peter; Reguero, Borja G; Mendez, Fernando J

    2017-07-11

    Coastal communities throughout the world are exposed to numerous and increasing threats, such as coastal flooding and erosion, saltwater intrusion and wetland degradation. Here, we present the first global-scale analysis of the main drivers of coastal flooding due to large-scale oceanographic factors. Given the large dimensionality of the problem (e.g. spatiotemporal variability in flood magnitude and the relative influence of waves, tides and surge levels), we have performed a computer-based classification to identify geographical areas with homogeneous climates. Results show that 75% of coastal regions around the globe have the potential for very large flooding events with low probabilities (unbounded tails), 82% are tide-dominated, and almost 49% are highly susceptible to increases in flooding frequency due to sea-level rise.

  16. Equilibrium climate response of the East Asian summer monsoon to forcing of anthropogenic aerosol species

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Zhili; Wang, Qiuyan; Zhang, Hua

    2017-12-01

    We used an online aerosol-climate model to study the equilibrium climate response of the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) to increases in anthropogenic emissions of sulfate, organic carbon, and black carbon aerosols from 1850 to 2000. Our results show that each of these aerosol species has a different effect on the EASM as a result of changes in the local sea-land thermal contrast and atmospheric circulation. The increased emission of sulfate aerosol leads to a decrease in the thermal contrast between the land and ocean, a southward shift of the East Asian subtropical jet, and significant northerly wind anomalies at 850 hPa over eastern China and the ambient oceans, markedly dampening the EASM. An increase in organic carbon aerosol results in pronounced surface cooling and the formation of an anomalous anticyclone over the oceans north of 30°N. These effects cause a slight increase in the sea-land thermal contrast and southerly flow anomalies to the west of the anticyclonic center, strengthening the northern EASM. An increase in organic carbon emission decreases the sea-land thermal contrast over southern China, which weakens the southern EASM. The response of the summer 850-hPa winds and rainfall over the East Asian monsoon region to an increase in black carbon emission is generally consistent with the response to an increase in organic carbon. The increase in black carbon emission leads to a strengthening of the northern EASM north of 35°N and a slight weakening of the southern EASM south of 35°N. The simulated response of the EASM to the increase in black carbon emission is unchanged when the emission of black carbon is scaled up by five times its year 2000 levels, although the intensities of the response is enhanced. The increase in sulfate emission primarily weakens the EASM, whereas the increases in black carbon and organic carbon emissions mitigate weakening of the northern EASM.

  17. Vertical microphysical profiles of convective clouds as a tool for obtaining aerosol cloud-mediated climate forcings

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rosenfeld, Daniel [Hebrew Univ. of Jerusalem (Israel)

    2015-12-23

    Quantifying the aerosol/cloud-mediated radiative effect at a global scale requires simultaneous satellite retrievals of cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) concentrations and cloud base updraft velocities (Wb). Hitherto, the inability to do so has been a major cause of high uncertainty regarding anthropogenic aerosol/cloud-mediated radiative forcing. This can be addressed by the emerging capability of estimating CCN and Wb of boundary layer convective clouds from an operational polar orbiting weather satellite. Our methodology uses such clouds as an effective analog for CCN chambers. The cloud base supersaturation (S) is determined by Wb and the satellite-retrieved cloud base drop concentrations (Ndb), which is the same as CCN(S). Developing and validating this methodology was possible thanks to the ASR/ARM measurements of CCN and vertical updraft profiles. Validation against ground-based CCN instruments at the ARM sites in Oklahoma, Manaus, and onboard a ship in the northeast Pacific showed a retrieval accuracy of ±25% to ±30% for individual satellite overpasses. The methodology is presently limited to boundary layer not raining convective clouds of at least 1 km depth that are not obscured by upper layer clouds, including semitransparent cirrus. The limitation for small solar backscattering angles of <25º restricts the satellite coverage to ~25% of the world area in a single day. This methodology will likely allow overcoming the challenge of quantifying the aerosol indirect effect and facilitate a substantial reduction of the uncertainty in anthropogenic climate forcing.

  18. The Flux-Anomaly-Forced Model Intercomparison Project (FAFMIP contribution to CMIP6: investigation of sea-level and ocean climate change in response to CO2 forcing

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. M. Gregory

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available The Flux-Anomaly-Forced Model Intercomparison Project (FAFMIP aims to investigate the spread in simulations of sea-level and ocean climate change in response to CO2 forcing by atmosphere–ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs. It is particularly motivated by the uncertainties in projections of ocean heat uptake, global-mean sea-level rise due to thermal expansion and the geographical patterns of sea-level change due to ocean density and circulation change. FAFMIP has three tier-1 experiments, in which prescribed surface flux perturbations of momentum, heat and freshwater respectively are applied to the ocean in separate AOGCM simulations. All other conditions are as in the pre-industrial control. The prescribed fields are typical of pattern and magnitude of changes in these fluxes projected by AOGCMs for doubled CO2 concentration. Five groups have tested the experimental design with existing AOGCMs. Their results show diversity in the pattern and magnitude of changes, with some common qualitative features. Heat and water flux perturbation cause the dipole in sea-level change in the North Atlantic, while momentum and heat flux perturbation cause the gradient across the Antarctic Circumpolar Current. The Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC declines in response to the heat flux perturbation, and there is a strong positive feedback on this effect due to the consequent cooling of sea-surface temperature in the North Atlantic, which enhances the local heat input to the ocean. The momentum and water flux perturbations do not substantially affect the AMOC. Heat is taken up largely as a passive tracer in the Southern Ocean, which is the region of greatest heat input, while the weakening of the AMOC causes redistribution of heat towards lower latitudes. Future analysis of these and other phenomena with the wider range of CMIP6 FAFMIP AOGCMs will benefit from new diagnostics of temperature and salinity tendencies, which will enable

  19. Sensitivity of wetland hydrology to external climate forcing in central Florida

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lammertsma, Emmy I.; Donders, Timme H.; Pearce, Christof; Cremer, Holger; Gaiser, Evelyn E.; Wagner-Cremer, Friederike

    2015-11-01

    Available proxy records from the Florida peninsula give a varying view on hydrological changes during the late Holocene. Here we evaluate the consistency and sensitivity of local wetland records in relation to hydrological changes over the past 5 ka based on pollen and diatom proxies from peat cores in Highlands Hammock State Park, central Florida. Around 5 cal ka BP, a dynamic floodplain environment is present. Subsequently, a wetland forest establishes, followed by a change to persistent wet conditions between 2.5 and 2.0 ka. Long hydroperiods remain despite gradual succession and basin infilling with maximum wet conditions between 1.3 and 1.0 ka. The wet phase and subsequent strong drying over the last millennium, as indicated by shifts in both pollen and diatom assemblages, can be linked to the early Medieval Warm Period and Little Ice Age, respectively, driven by regionally higher sea-surface temperatures and a temporary northward migration of the Intertropical Convergence Zone. Changes during the 20th century are the result of constructions intended to protect the Highlands Hammock State Park from wildfires. The multiple cores and proxies allow distinguishing local and regional hydrological changes. The peat records reflect relatively subtle climatic changes that are not evident from regional pollen records from lakes.

  20. Weak Hydrological Sensitivity to Temperature Change over Land, Independent of Climate Forcing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Samset, B. H.; Myhre, G.; Forster, P. M.; Hodnebrog, O.; Andrews, T.; Boucher, O.; Faluvegi, G.; Flaeschner, D.; Kasoar, M.; Kharin, V.; hide

    2018-01-01

    We present the global and regional hydrological sensitivity (HS) to surface temperature changes, for perturbations to CO2, CH4, sulfate and black carbon concentrations, and solar irradiance. Based on results from ten climate models, we show how modeled global mean precipitation increases by 2-3% per kelvin of global mean surface warming, independent of driver, when the effects of rapid adjustments are removed. Previously reported differences in response between drivers are therefore mainly ascribable to rapid atmospheric adjustment processes. All models show a sharp contrast in behavior over land and over ocean, with a strong surface temperature-driven (slow) ocean HS of 3-5%/K, while the slow land HS is only 0-2%/K. Separating the response into convective and large-scale cloud processes, we find larger inter-model differences, in particular over land regions. Large-scale precipitation changes are most relevant at high latitudes, while the equatorial HS is dominated by convective precipitation changes. Black carbon stands out as the driver with the largest inter-model slow HS variability, and also the strongest contrast between a weak land and strong sea response. We identify a particular need for model investigations and observational constraints on convective precipitation in the Arctic, and large-scale precipitation around the Equator.

  1. Tropospheric ozone changes, radiative forcing and attribution to emissions in the Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. S. Stevenson

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available Ozone (O3 from 17 atmospheric chemistry models taking part in the Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP has been used to calculate tropospheric ozone radiative forcings (RFs. All models applied a common set of anthropogenic emissions, which are better constrained for the present-day than the past. Future anthropogenic emissions follow the four Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP scenarios, which define a relatively narrow range of possible air pollution emissions. We calculate a value for the pre-industrial (1750 to present-day (2010 tropospheric ozone RF of 410 mW m−2. The model range of pre-industrial to present-day changes in O3 produces a spread (±1 standard deviation in RFs of ±17%. Three different radiation schemes were used – we find differences in RFs between schemes (for the same ozone fields of ±10%. Applying two different tropopause definitions gives differences in RFs of ±3%. Given additional (unquantified uncertainties associated with emissions, climate-chemistry interactions and land-use change, we estimate an overall uncertainty of ±30% for the tropospheric ozone RF. Experiments carried out by a subset of six models attribute tropospheric ozone RF to increased emissions of methane (44±12%, nitrogen oxides (31 ± 9%, carbon monoxide (15 ± 3% and non-methane volatile organic compounds (9 ± 2%; earlier studies attributed more of the tropospheric ozone RF to methane and less to nitrogen oxides. Normalising RFs to changes in tropospheric column ozone, we find a global mean normalised RF of 42 mW m−2 DU−1, a value similar to previous work. Using normalised RFs and future tropospheric column ozone projections we calculate future tropospheric ozone RFs (mW m−2; relative to 1750 for the four future scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0 and RCP8.5 of 350, 420, 370 and 460 (in 2030, and 200, 300, 280 and 600 (in 2100. Models show some coherent responses of ozone to climate change

  2. Future climate and surface mass balance of Svalbard glaciers in an RCP8.5 climate scenario: a study with the regional climate model MAR forced by MIROC5

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lang, C.; Fettweis, X.; Erpicum, M.

    2015-05-01

    We have performed a future projection of the climate and surface mass balance (SMB) of Svalbard with the MAR (Modèle Atmosphérique Régional) regional climate model forced by MIROC5 (Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate), following the RCP8.5 scenario at a spatial resolution of 10 km. MAR predicts a similar evolution of increasing surface melt everywhere in Svalbard followed by a sudden acceleration of melt around 2050, with a larger melt increase in the south compared to the north of the archipelago. This melt acceleration around 2050 is mainly driven by the albedo-melt feedback associated with the expansion of the ablation/bare ice zone. This effect is dampened in part as the solar radiation itself is projected to decrease due to a cloudiness increase. The near-surface temperature is projected to increase more in winter than in summer as the temperature is already close to 0 °C in summer. The model also projects a stronger winter west-to-east temperature gradient, related to the large decrease of sea ice cover around Svalbard. By 2085, SMB is projected to become negative over all of Svalbard's glaciated regions, leading to the rapid degradation of the firn layer.

  3. Responses of stream nitrate and DOC loadings to hydrological forcing and climate change in an upland forest of the northeastern United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stephen D. Sebestyen; Elizabeth W. Boyer; James B. Shanley

    2009-01-01

    In coming decades, higher annual temperatures, increased growing season length, and increased dormant season precipitation are expected across the northeastern United States in response to anthropogenic forcing of global climate. We synthesized long-term stream hydrochemical data from the Sleepers River Research Watershed in Vermont, United States, to explore the...

  4. Importance of Preserving Cross-correlation in developing Statistically Downscaled Climate Forcings and in estimating Land-surface Fluxes and States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Das Bhowmik, R.; Arumugam, S.

    2015-12-01

    Multivariate downscaling techniques exhibited superiority over univariate regression schemes in terms of preserving cross-correlations between multiple variables- precipitation and temperature - from GCMs. This study focuses on two aspects: (a) develop an analytical solutions on estimating biases in cross-correlations from univariate downscaling approaches and (b) quantify the uncertainty in land-surface states and fluxes due to biases in cross-correlations in downscaled climate forcings. Both these aspects are evaluated using climate forcings available from both historical climate simulations and CMIP5 hindcasts over the entire US. The analytical solution basically relates the univariate regression parameters, co-efficient of determination of regression and the co-variance ratio between GCM and downscaled values. The analytical solutions are compared with the downscaled univariate forcings by choosing the desired p-value (Type-1 error) in preserving the observed cross-correlation. . For quantifying the impacts of biases on cross-correlation on estimating streamflow and groundwater, we corrupt the downscaled climate forcings with different cross-correlation structure.

  5. NONLINEAR FORCE-FREE FIELD EXTRAPOLATION OF A CORONAL MAGNETIC FLUX ROPE SUPPORTING A LARGE-SCALE SOLAR FILAMENT FROM A PHOTOSPHERIC VECTOR MAGNETOGRAM

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jiang, Chaowei; Wu, S. T.; Hu, Qiang [Center for Space Plasma and Aeronomic Research, The University of Alabama in Huntsville, Huntsville, AL 35899 (United States); Feng, Xueshang, E-mail: cwjiang@spaceweather.ac.cn, E-mail: wus@uah.edu, E-mail: qh0001@uah.edu, E-mail: fengx@spaceweather.ac.cn [SIGMA Weather Group, State Key Laboratory for Space Weather, Center for Space Science and Applied Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190 (China)

    2014-05-10

    Solar filaments are commonly thought to be supported in magnetic dips, in particular, in those of magnetic flux ropes (FRs). In this Letter, based on the observed photospheric vector magnetogram, we implement a nonlinear force-free field (NLFFF) extrapolation of a coronal magnetic FR that supports a large-scale intermediate filament between an active region and a weak polarity region. This result is a first, in the sense that current NLFFF extrapolations including the presence of FRs are limited to relatively small-scale filaments that are close to sunspots and along main polarity inversion lines (PILs) with strong transverse field and magnetic shear, and the existence of an FR is usually predictable. In contrast, the present filament lies along the weak-field region (photospheric field strength ≲ 100 G), where the PIL is very fragmented due to small parasitic polarities on both sides of the PIL and the transverse field has a low signal-to-noise ratio. Thus, extrapolating a large-scale FR in such a case represents a far more difficult challenge. We demonstrate that our CESE-MHD-NLFFF code is sufficient for the challenge. The numerically reproduced magnetic dips of the extrapolated FR match observations of the filament and its barbs very well, which strongly supports the FR-dip model for filaments. The filament is stably sustained because the FR is weakly twisted and strongly confined by the overlying closed arcades.

  6. Progress report of the Interagency Climate Change Adaptation Task Force : recommended actions in support of a national climate change adaptation strategy

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-05

    The scope, severity, and pace of : future climate change impacts are : difficult to predict. However, : observations and long-term scientific : trends indicate that the potential : impacts of a changing climate on : society and the environment will b...

  7. On Effective Radiative Forcing of Partial Internally and Externally Mixed Aerosols and Their Effects on Global Climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhou, Chen; Zhang, Hua; Zhao, Shuyun; Li, Jiangnan

    2018-01-01

    The total effective radiative forcing (ERF) due to partial internally mixed (PIM) and externally mixed (EM) anthropogenic aerosols, as well as their climatic effects since the year of 1850, was evaluated and compared using the aerosol-climate online coupled model of BCC_AGCM2.0_CUACE/Aero. The influences of internal mixing (IM) on aerosol hygroscopicity parameter, optical properties, and concentration were considered. Generally, IM could markedly weaken the negative ERF and cooling effects of anthropogenic aerosols. The global annual mean ERF of EM anthropogenic aerosols from 1850 to 2010 was -1.87 W m-2, of which the aerosol-radiation interactive ERF (ERFari) and aerosol-cloud interactive ERF (ERFaci) were -0.49 and -1.38 W m-2, respectively. The global annual mean ERF due to PIM anthropogenic aerosols from 1850 to 2010 was -1.23 W m-2, with ERFari and ERFaci of -0.23 and -1.01 W m-2, respectively. The global annual mean surface temperature and water evaporation and precipitation were reduced by 1.74 K and 0.14 mm d-1 for EM scheme and 1.28 K and 0.11 mm d-1 for PIM scheme, respectively. However, the relative humidity near the surface was slightly increased for both mixing cases. The Intertropical Convergence Zone was southwardly shifted for both EM and PIM cases but was less southwardly shifted in PIM scheme due to the less reduction in atmospheric temperature in the midlatitude and low latitude of the Northern Hemisphere.

  8. Particulate sulfur in the upper troposphere and lowermost stratosphere – sources and climate forcing

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B. G. Martinsson

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available This study is based on fine-mode aerosol samples collected in the upper troposphere (UT and the lowermost stratosphere (LMS of the Northern Hemisphere extratropics during monthly intercontinental flights at 8.8–12 km altitude of the IAGOS-CARIBIC platform in the time period 1999–2014. The samples were analyzed for a large number of chemical elements using the accelerator-based methods PIXE (particle-induced X-ray emission and PESA (particle elastic scattering analysis. Here the particulate sulfur concentrations, obtained by PIXE analysis, are investigated. In addition, the satellite-borne lidar aboard CALIPSO is used to study the stratospheric aerosol load. A steep gradient in particulate sulfur concentration extends several kilometers into the LMS, as a result of increasing dilution towards the tropopause of stratospheric, particulate sulfur-rich air. The stratospheric air is diluted with tropospheric air, forming the extratropical transition layer (ExTL. Observed concentrations are related to the distance to the dynamical tropopause. A linear regression methodology handled seasonal variation and impact from volcanism. This was used to convert each data point into stand-alone estimates of a concentration profile and column concentration of particulate sulfur in a 3 km altitude band above the tropopause. We find distinct responses to volcanic eruptions, and that this layer in the LMS has a significant contribution to the stratospheric aerosol optical depth and thus to its radiative forcing. Further, the origin of UT particulate sulfur shows strong seasonal variation. We find that tropospheric sources dominate during the fall as a result of downward transport of the Asian tropopause aerosol layer (ATAL formed in the Asian monsoon, whereas transport down from the Junge layer is the main source of UT particulate sulfur in the first half of the year. In this latter part of the year, the stratosphere is the clearly dominating source of

  9. Global distribution and climate forcing of marine organic aerosol: 1. Model improvements and evaluation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N. Meskhidze

    2011-11-01

    marine organics are internally-mixed with sea-salt provides diverse results with increases and decreases in the concentration of CCN over different parts of the ocean. The sign of the CCN change due to the addition of marine organics to sea-salt aerosol is determined by the relative significance of the increase in mean modal diameter due to addition of mass, and the decrease in particle hygroscopicity due to compositional changes in marine aerosol. Based on emerging evidence for increased CCN concentration over biologically active surface ocean areas/periods, our study suggests that treatment of sea spray in global climate models (GCMs as an internal mixture of marine organic aerosols and sea-salt will likely lead to an underestimation in CCN number concentration.

  10. A role for land surface forcing of North Atlantic climate and isotope signals during the 8.2kyr event?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hopcroft, Peter; Valdes, Paul

    2014-05-01

    An important example of abrupt climate change occurred 8200 years ago in the North Atlantic and is generally known as the 8.2kyr event. This abrupt ~160 year cooling appears to coincide with the final drainage of the ice-dammed Lakes Agassiz and Ojibway. The resultant influx of meltwater to the North Atlantic is assumed to have perturbed the Atlantic Meridional Overturning circulation, reducing northward heat transport and causing widespread cooling. Numerous lines of evidence support this theory, with reconstructions showing changes in deep water formation, reductions in salinity and evidence of sea-level rise. Coupled general circulation model (GCM) simulations driven with realistic estimates of the meltwater flux show a regional cooling but fail to replicate the duration or the magnitude of this event in comparison with proxy archives. Meltwater injection was not the only rapid climate forcing in operation at this time. Drainage of the pro-glacial lakes would have had a profound effect on the boundary layer heat fluxes over North America, with potential teleconnections further afield. In this work we use an isotope-enabled version of the coupled GCM HadCM3 with boundary conditions appropriate for the time period of 9kyr (including ice sheets, greenhouse gases and orbital parameters). This model tracks oxygen isotopes throughout the hydrological cycle allowing more robust comparison with proxy archives. We analyse the impact of the removal of a lake area corresponding to Lakes Agassiz and Ojibway at this time and present sensitivity tests designed to analyse the contributions from lake removal, orographic change and the assumed isotopic content of the pro-glacial lakes. The results show a distinct pattern of cooling across North America (in the annual mean) with an apparent teleconnection to the Barents Sea, where there is warming associated with sea-ice reduction. The isotopic implications depend on the initial isotopic content of the pro-glacial lake. Assuming

  11. Recent climate warming forces contrasting growth responses of white spruce at treeline in Alaska through temperature thresholds

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martin Wilmking; Glenn P. Juday; Valerie A. Barber; Harold S.J. Zald

    2004-01-01

    Northern and high-latitude alpine treelines are generally thought to be limited by available warmth. Most studies of tree-growth-climate interaction at treeline as well as climate reconstructions using dendrochronology report positive growth response of treeline trees to warmer temperatures. However, population-wide responses of treeline trees to climate remain largely...

  12. Local Climate Changes Forced by Changes in Land Use and topography in the Aburrá Valley, Colombia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zapata Henao, M. Z.; Hoyos Ortiz, C. D.

    2017-12-01

    One of the challenges in the numerical weather models is the adequate representation of soil-vegetation-atmosphere interaction at different spatial scales, including scenarios with heterogeneous land cover and complex mountainous terrain. The interaction determines the energy, mass and momentum exchange at the surface and could affect different variables including precipitation, temperature and wind. In order to quantify the long-term climate impact of changes in local land use and to assess the role of topography, two numerical experiments were examined. The first experiment allows assessing the continuous growth of urban areas within the Aburrá Valley, a complex terrain region located in Colombian Andes. The Weather Research Forecast model (WRF) is used as the basis of the experiment. The basic setup involves two nested domains, one representing the continental scale (18 km) and the other the regional scale (2 km). The second experiment allows drastic topography modification, including changing the valley configuration to a plateau. The control run for both experiments corresponds to a climatological scenario. In both experiments the boundary conditions correspond to the climatological continental domain output. Surface temperature, surface winds and precipitation are used as the main variables to compare both experiments relative to the control run. The results of the first experiment show a strong relationship between land cover and the variables, specially for surface temperature and wind speed, due to the strong forcing land cover imposes on the albedo, heat capacity and surface roughness, changing temperature and wind speed magnitudes. The second experiment removes the winds spatial variability related with hill slopes, the direction and magnitude are modulated only by the trade winds and roughness of land cover.

  13. Nonlinear Elasticity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fu, Y. B.; Ogden, R. W.

    2001-05-01

    This collection of papers by leading researchers in the field of finite, nonlinear elasticity concerns itself with the behavior of objects that deform when external forces or temperature gradients are applied. This process is extremely important in many industrial settings, such as aerospace and rubber industries. This book covers the various aspects of the subject comprehensively with careful explanations of the basic theories and individual chapters each covering a different research direction. The authors discuss the use of symbolic manipulation software as well as computer algorithm issues. The emphasis is placed firmly on covering modern, recent developments, rather than the very theoretical approach often found. The book will be an excellent reference for both beginners and specialists in engineering, applied mathematics and physics.

  14. Nonlinear resonances

    CERN Document Server

    Rajasekar, Shanmuganathan

    2016-01-01

    This introductory text presents the basic aspects and most important features of various types of resonances and anti-resonances in dynamical systems. In particular, for each resonance, it covers the theoretical concepts, illustrates them with case studies, and reviews the available information on mechanisms, characterization, numerical simulations, experimental realizations, possible quantum analogues, applications and significant advances made over the years. Resonances are one of the most fundamental phenomena exhibited by nonlinear systems and refer to specific realizations of maximum response of a system due to the ability of that system to store and transfer energy received from an external forcing source. Resonances are of particular importance in physical, engineering and biological systems - they can prove to be advantageous in many applications, while leading to instability and even disasters in others. The book is self-contained, providing the details of mathematical derivations and techniques invo...

  15. Statistical framework for evaluation of climate model simulations by use of climate proxy data from the last millennium – Part 2: A pseudo-proxy study addressing the amplitude of solar forcing

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Hind

    2012-08-01

    Full Text Available The statistical framework of Part 1 (Sundberg et al., 2012, for comparing ensemble simulation surface temperature output with temperature proxy and instrumental records, is implemented in a pseudo-proxy experiment. A set of previously published millennial forced simulations (Max Planck Institute – COSMOS, including both "low" and "high" solar radiative forcing histories together with other important forcings, was used to define "true" target temperatures as well as pseudo-proxy and pseudo-instrumental series. In a global land-only experiment, using annual mean temperatures at a 30-yr time resolution with realistic proxy noise levels, it was found that the low and high solar full-forcing simulations could be distinguished. In an additional experiment, where pseudo-proxies were created to reflect a current set of proxy locations and noise levels, the low and high solar forcing simulations could only be distinguished when the latter served as targets. To improve detectability of the low solar simulations, increasing the signal-to-noise ratio in local temperature proxies was more efficient than increasing the spatial coverage of the proxy network. The experiences gained here will be of guidance when these methods are applied to real proxy and instrumental data, for example when the aim is to distinguish which of the alternative solar forcing histories is most compatible with the observed/reconstructed climate.

  16. Potential forcing of CO2, technology and climate changes in maize (Zea mays) and bean (Phaseolus vulgaris) yield in southeast Brazil

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Costa, L C; Justino, F; Oliveira, L J C; Sediyama, G C; Lemos, C F; Ferreira, W P M

    2009-01-01

    Based upon sensitivity experiments, this study aims to investigate the impact of increased atmospheric CO 2 concentration, climate changes, and ongoing technological advancements on bean (Phaseolus vulgaris) and maize (Zea mays) yield. This investigation assumes that the atmospheric CO 2 concentration evolves according to the A2 scenario. For these analyses we have used climate data as projected by climate simulations conducted with the HadCM3 climate model for both present day and greenhouse warming conditions. The results demonstrated that warming conditions associated with increased greenhouse gases as delivered by the HadCM3 model lead to reductions in the potential productivity of maize and beans for the years 2050 and 2080 by up to 30%. This thermal response is, however, damped by the highly efficient CO 2 fertilization effect which is expected to increase bean productivity as compared to present day conditions. A similar investigation for maize yield revealed a different picture. It has been found that the CO 2 fertilization feedback is much weaker and cannot cancel out the thermal effect. We have found, therefore, that climate changes as simulated to occur in the future are not favorable for increasing the maize yield in southeast Brazil. By the inclusion of the third forcing evaluated, representing technological advancements, it is demonstrated that improvements in the crop system reduce the negative effect associated with warmer climate conditions for both crops. We conclude that appropriate soil and technological management as well as genetic improvements may very likely induce an increase in bean and maize yield despite the unfavorable future climate conditions.

  17. Potential forcing of CO{sub 2}, technology and climate changes in maize (Zea mays) and bean (Phaseolus vulgaris) yield in southeast Brazil

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Costa, L C; Justino, F; Oliveira, L J C; Sediyama, G C; Lemos, C F [Department of Agricultural Engineering, Federal University of Vicosa, PH Rolfs S/N, Vicosa, MG, 36570 000 (Brazil); Ferreira, W P M [Embrapa Milho e Sorgo, Rodovia MG 424, km 45, Caixa Postal 285, CEP 35701-970 Sete Lagoas, MG (Brazil)], E-mail: fjustino@ufv.br

    2009-01-15

    Based upon sensitivity experiments, this study aims to investigate the impact of increased atmospheric CO{sub 2} concentration, climate changes, and ongoing technological advancements on bean (Phaseolus vulgaris) and maize (Zea mays) yield. This investigation assumes that the atmospheric CO{sub 2} concentration evolves according to the A2 scenario. For these analyses we have used climate data as projected by climate simulations conducted with the HadCM3 climate model for both present day and greenhouse warming conditions. The results demonstrated that warming conditions associated with increased greenhouse gases as delivered by the HadCM3 model lead to reductions in the potential productivity of maize and beans for the years 2050 and 2080 by up to 30%. This thermal response is, however, damped by the highly efficient CO{sub 2} fertilization effect which is expected to increase bean productivity as compared to present day conditions. A similar investigation for maize yield revealed a different picture. It has been found that the CO{sub 2} fertilization feedback is much weaker and cannot cancel out the thermal effect. We have found, therefore, that climate changes as simulated to occur in the future are not favorable for increasing the maize yield in southeast Brazil. By the inclusion of the third forcing evaluated, representing technological advancements, it is demonstrated that improvements in the crop system reduce the negative effect associated with warmer climate conditions for both crops. We conclude that appropriate soil and technological management as well as genetic improvements may very likely induce an increase in bean and maize yield despite the unfavorable future climate conditions.

  18. Combined fishing and climate forcing in the southern Benguela upwelling ecosystem: an end-to-end modelling approach reveals dampened effects.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Morgane Travers-Trolet

    Full Text Available The effects of climate and fishing on marine ecosystems have usually been studied separately, but their interactions make ecosystem dynamics difficult to understand and predict. Of particular interest to management, the potential synergism or antagonism between fishing pressure and climate forcing is analysed in this paper, using an end-to-end ecosystem model of the southern Benguela ecosystem, built from coupling hydrodynamic, biogeochemical and multispecies fish models (ROMS-N2P2Z2D2-OSMOSE. Scenarios of different intensities of upwelling-favourable wind stress combined with scenarios of fishing top-predator fish were tested. Analyses of isolated drivers show that the bottom-up effect of the climate forcing propagates up the food chain whereas the top-down effect of fishing cascades down to zooplankton in unfavourable environmental conditions but dampens before it reaches phytoplankton. When considering both climate and fishing drivers together, it appears that top-down control dominates the link between top-predator fish and forage fish, whereas interactions between the lower trophic levels are dominated by bottom-up control. The forage fish functional group appears to be a central component of this ecosystem, being the meeting point of two opposite trophic controls. The set of combined scenarios shows that fishing pressure and upwelling-favourable wind stress have mostly dampened effects on fish populations, compared to predictions from the separate effects of the stressors. Dampened effects result in biomass accumulation at the top predator fish level but a depletion of biomass at the forage fish level. This should draw our attention to the evolution of this functional group, which appears as both structurally important in the trophic functioning of the ecosystem, and very sensitive to climate and fishing pressures. In particular, diagnoses considering fishing pressure only might be more optimistic than those that consider combined effects

  19. Fatigue and extreme wave loads on bottom fixed offshore wind turbines. Effects from fully nonlinear wave forcing on the structural dynamics

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schløer, Signe

    2013-01-01

    wind farms. As wind farms are being moved further offshore the wave loads become larger compared to the wind loads and therefore more important in the design of offshore wind turbines. Yet, the water depth is still only shallow or intermediate where the waves should be described by nonlinear irregular...

  20. Radiolarian abundance - A monsoon proxy responding to the Earth`s orbital forcing: Inferences on the mid-Brunhes climate shift

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Gupta, S.M.

    stream_size 32348 stream_content_type text/plain stream_name Earth_Sci_India_2_1.pdf.txt stream_source_info Earth_Sci_India_2_1.pdf.txt Content-Encoding UTF-8 Content-Type text/plain; charset=UTF-8 Gupta http://www....earthscienceindia.info/Gupta.htm 1 of 8 1/28/2009 3:14 PM Earth Science India Vol.2 (I),January, 2009, pp. 1-20 http://www.earthscienceindia.info/ Radiolarian abundance - a monsoon proxy responding to the Earth’s orbital forcing: Inferences on the mid-Brunhes climate shift Shyam...

  1. Response and adaptation of grapevine cultivars to hydrological conditions forced by a changing climate in a complex landscape

    Science.gov (United States)

    De Lorenzi, Francesca; Bonfante, Antonello; Alfieri, Silvia Maria; Monaco, Eugenia; De Mascellis, Roberto; Manna, Piero; Menenti, Massimo

    2014-05-01

    Soil water availability is one of the main components of the terroir concept, influencing crop yield and fruit composition in grapes. The aim of this work is to analyze some elements of the "natural environment" of terroir (climate and soil) in combination with the intra-specific biodiversity of yield responses of grapevine to water availability. From a reference (1961-90) to a future (2021-50) climate case, the effects of climate evolution on soil water availability are assessed and, regarding soil water regime as a predictor variable, the potential spatial distribution of wine-producing cultivars is determined. In a region of Southern Italy (Valle Telesina, 20,000 ha), where a terroir classification has been produced (Bonfante et al., 2011), we applied an agro-hydrological model to determine water availability indicators. Simulations were performed in 60 soil typological units, over the entire study area, and water availability (= hydrological) indicators were determined. Two climate cases were considered: reference (1961-90) and future (2021-2050), the former from climatic statistics on observed variables, and the latter from statistical downscaling of predictions by general circulation models (AOGCM) under A1B SRES scenario. Climatic data consist of daily time series of maximum and minimum temperature, and daily rainfall on a grid with a spatial resolution of 35 km. Spatial and temporal variability of hydrological indicators was addressed. With respect to temporal variability, both inter-annual and intra-annual (i.e. at different stages of crop cycle) variability were analyzed. Some cultivar-specific relations between hydrological indicators and characteristics of must quality were established. Moreover, for several wine-producing cultivars, hydrological requirements were determined by means of yield response functions to soil water availability, through the re-analysis of experimental data derived from scientific literature. The standard errors of estimated

  2. Evaluation of different freshwater forcing scenarios for the 8.2 ka BP event in a coupled climate model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wiersma, A.P.; Renssen, H. [Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, Faculty of Earth and Life Sciences, Amsterdam (Netherlands); Goosse, H.; Fichefet, T. [Universite Catholique de Louvain, Institut d' Astronomie et de Geophysique George Lemaitre, Louvain-la-Neuve (Belgium)

    2006-12-15

    To improve our understanding of the mechanism causing the 8.2 ka BP event, we investigated the response of ocean circulation in the ECBilt-CLIO-VECODE (Version 3) model to various freshwater fluxes into the Labrador Sea. Starting from an early Holocene climate state we released freshwater pulses varying in volume and duration based on published estimates. In addition we tested the effect of a baseline flow (0.172 Sv) in the Labrador Sea to account for the background-melting of the Laurentide ice-sheet on the early Holocene climate and on the response of the overturning circulation. Our results imply that the amount of freshwater released is the decisive factor in the response of the ocean, while the release duration only plays a minor role, at least when considering the short release durations (1, 2 and 5 years) of the applied freshwater pulses. Furthermore, the experiments with a baseline flow produce a more realistic early Holocene climate state without Labrador Sea Water formation. Meltwater pulses introduced into this climate state produce a prolonged weakening of the overturning circulation compared to an early Holocene climate without baseline flow, and therefore less freshwater is needed to produce an event of similar duration. (orig.)

  3. Solar forced Dansgaard-Oeschger events and their phase relation with solar proxies

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ditlevsen, Peter; Braun, H.; Chialvo, D. R.

    2008-01-01

    of a highly nonlinear system to quasi-periodic solar forcing plus noise. This hypothesis was challenged as inconsistent with the observed variability in the phase relation between proxies of solar activity and Greenland climate. Here we reject the claim of inconsistency by showing that this phase variability...... is a robust, generic feature of the nonlinear dynamics of DO events, as described by a model. This variability is expected from the fact that the events are threshold crossing events, resulting from a cooperative process between the periodic forcing and the noise. This process produces a fluctuating phase...

  4. Solving Nonlinear Coupled Differential Equations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mitchell, L.; David, J.

    1986-01-01

    Harmonic balance method developed to obtain approximate steady-state solutions for nonlinear coupled ordinary differential equations. Method usable with transfer matrices commonly used to analyze shaft systems. Solution to nonlinear equation, with periodic forcing function represented as sum of series similar to Fourier series but with form of terms suggested by equation itself.

  5. Nonlinear optics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Boyd, R.W.

    1992-01-01

    Nonlinear optics is the study of the interaction of intense laser light with matter. This book is a textbook on nonlinear optics at the level of a beginning graduate student. The intent of the book is to provide an introduction to the field of nonlinear optics that stresses fundamental concepts and that enables the student to go on to perform independent research in this field. This book covers the areas of nonlinear optics, quantum optics, quantum electronics, laser physics, electrooptics, and modern optics

  6. Lake Baikal climatic record between 310 and 50 ky BP: Interplay between diatoms, watershed weathering and orbital forcing

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Grygar, Tomáš; Bláhová, Anna; Hradil, David; Bezdička, Petr; Kadlec, Jaroslav; Schnabl, Petr; Swann, G.; Oberhänsli, H.

    2007-01-01

    Roč. 250, 1-4 (2007), s. 50-67 ISSN 0031-0182 R&D Projects: GA AV ČR IAA3032401 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z40320502; CEZ:AV0Z3013912 Keywords : lake sediments * climate change * spectroscopy Subject RIV: CA - Inorganic Chemistry Impact factor: 2.162, year: 2007

  7. Nonlinear crack mechanics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Khoroshun, L.P.

    1995-01-01

    The characteristic features of the deformation and failure of actual materials in the vicinity of a crack tip are due to their physical nonlinearity in the stress-concentration zone, which is a result of plasticity, microfailure, or a nonlinear dependence of the interatomic forces on the distance. Therefore, adequate models of the failure mechanics must be nonlinear, in principle, although linear failure mechanics is applicable if the zone of nonlinear deformation is small in comparison with the crack length. Models of crack mechanics are based on analytical solutions of the problem of the stress-strain state in the vicinity of the crack. On account of the complexity of the problem, nonlinear models are bason on approximate schematic solutions. In the Leonov-Panasyuk-Dugdale nonlinear model, one of the best known, the actual two-dimensional plastic zone (the nonlinearity zone) is replaced by a narrow one-dimensional zone, which is then modeled by extending the crack with a specified normal load equal to the yield point. The condition of finite stress is applied here, and hence the length of the plastic zone is determined. As a result of this approximation, the displacement in the plastic zone at the abscissa is nonzero

  8. Implications of the methodological choices for hydrologic portrayals of climate change over the contiguous United States: Statistically downscaled forcing data and hydrologic models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mizukami, Naoki; Clark, Martyn P.; Gutmann, Ethan D.; Mendoza, Pablo A.; Newman, Andrew J.; Nijssen, Bart; Livneh, Ben; Hay, Lauren E.; Arnold, Jeffrey R.; Brekke, Levi D.

    2016-01-01

    Continental-domain assessments of climate change impacts on water resources typically rely on statistically downscaled climate model outputs to force hydrologic models at a finer spatial resolution. This study examines the effects of four statistical downscaling methods [bias-corrected constructed analog (BCCA), bias-corrected spatial disaggregation applied at daily (BCSDd) and monthly scales (BCSDm), and asynchronous regression (AR)] on retrospective hydrologic simulations using three hydrologic models with their default parameters (the Community Land Model, version 4.0; the Variable Infiltration Capacity model, version 4.1.2; and the Precipitation–Runoff Modeling System, version 3.0.4) over the contiguous United States (CONUS). Biases of hydrologic simulations forced by statistically downscaled climate data relative to the simulation with observation-based gridded data are presented. Each statistical downscaling method produces different meteorological portrayals including precipitation amount, wet-day frequency, and the energy input (i.e., shortwave radiation), and their interplay affects estimations of precipitation partitioning between evapotranspiration and runoff, extreme runoff, and hydrologic states (i.e., snow and soil moisture). The analyses show that BCCA underestimates annual precipitation by as much as −250 mm, leading to unreasonable hydrologic portrayals over the CONUS for all models. Although the other three statistical downscaling methods produce a comparable precipitation bias ranging from −10 to 8 mm across the CONUS, BCSDd severely overestimates the wet-day fraction by up to 0.25, leading to different precipitation partitioning compared to the simulations with other downscaled data. Overall, the choice of downscaling method contributes to less spread in runoff estimates (by a factor of 1.5–3) than the choice of hydrologic model with use of the default parameters if BCCA is excluded.

  9. Nonlinear optics

    CERN Document Server

    Bloembergen, Nicolaas

    1996-01-01

    Nicolaas Bloembergen, recipient of the Nobel Prize for Physics (1981), wrote Nonlinear Optics in 1964, when the field of nonlinear optics was only three years old. The available literature has since grown by at least three orders of magnitude.The vitality of Nonlinear Optics is evident from the still-growing number of scientists and engineers engaged in the study of new nonlinear phenomena and in the development of new nonlinear devices in the field of opto-electronics. This monograph should be helpful in providing a historical introduction and a general background of basic ideas both for expe

  10. A record of astronomically forced climate change in a late Ordovician (Sandbian) deep marine sequence, Ordos Basin, North China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fang, Qiang; Wu, Huaichun; Hinnov, Linda A.; Wang, Xunlian; Yang, Tianshui; Li, Haiyan; Zhang, Shihong

    2016-07-01

    The late Ordovician Pingliang Formation on the southwestern margin of the Ordos Basin, North China, consists of rhythmic alternations of shale, limestone, and siliceous beds. To explore the possible astronomical forcing preserved in this lithological record, continuous lithological rank and magnetic susceptibility (MS) stratigraphic series were obtained from a 34 m thick section of the Pingliang Formation at Guanzhuang. Power spectral analysis of the MS and rank series reveal 85.5 cm to 124 cm, 23 cm to 38 cm, and 15 cm to 27 cm thick sedimentary cycles that in ratio match that of late Ordovician short eccentricity, obliquity and precession astronomical cycles. The power spectrum of the MS time series, calibrated to interpreted short orbital eccentricity cycles, aligns with spectral peaks to astronomical parameters, including 95 kyr short orbital eccentricity, 35.3 kyr and 30.6 kyr obliquity, and 19.6 kyr and 16.3 kyr precession cycles. The 15 cm to 27 cm thick limestone-shale couplets mainly represent precession cycles, and siliceous bed deposition may be related to both precession and obliquity forcing. We propose that precession-forced sea-level fluctuations mainly controlled production of lime mud in a shallow marine environment, and transport to the basin. Precession and obliquity controlled biogenic silica productivity, and temperature-dependent preservation of silica may have been influenced by obliquity forcing.

  11. Report of the Defense Science Board Task Force on Trends and Implications of Climate Change on National and International Security

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-10-01

    Honduras Senegal Ethiopia Iran Rwanda Fiji Libya Pakistan Source: World Bank 2009. 99 100 52 I CHAPTER 3 101 102 103 POTENTIAL...Southern Command Perspective Mr. Rod Snider American Red Cross American Red Cross and Climate Change MG Bob Barnes Nature Conservancy The Nature ...Model Intercomparison Project CMIP5 5th Coupled Model Intercomparison Project CO2 carbon dioxide COE Center of Excellence for Disaster Management

  12. Extinction risks forced by climatic change and intraspecific variation in the thermal physiology of a tropical lizard.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pontes-da-Silva, Emerson; Magnusson, William E; Sinervo, Barry; Caetano, Gabriel H; Miles, Donald B; Colli, Guarino R; Diele-Viegas, Luisa M; Fenker, Jessica; Santos, Juan C; Werneck, Fernanda P

    2018-04-01

    Temperature increases can impact biodiversity and predicting their effects is one of the main challenges facing global climate-change research. Ectotherms are sensitive to temperature change and, although predictions indicate that tropical species are highly vulnerable to global warming, they remain one of the least studied groups with respect to the extent of physiological variation and local extinction risks. We model the extinction risks for a tropical heliothermic teiid lizard (Kentropyx calcarata) integrating previously obtained information on intraspecific phylogeographic structure, eco-physiological traits and contemporary species distributions in the Amazon rainforest and its ecotone to the Cerrado savannah. We also investigated how thermal-biology traits vary throughout the species' geographic range and the consequences of such variation for lineage vulnerability. We show substantial variation in thermal tolerance of individuals among thermally distinct sites. Thermal critical limits were highly correlated with operative environmental temperatures. Our physiological/climatic model predicted relative extinction risks for local populations within clades of K. calcarata for 2050 ranging between 26.1% and 70.8%, while for 2070, extinction risks ranged from 52.8% to 92.8%. Our results support the hypothesis that tropical-lizard taxa are at high risk of local extinction caused by increasing temperatures. However, the thermo-physiological differences found across the species' distribution suggest that local adaptation may allow persistence of this tropical ectotherm in global warming scenarios. These results will serve as basis to further research to investigate the strength of local adaptation to climate change. Persistence of Kentropyx calcarata also depends on forest preservation, but the Amazon rainforest is currently under high deforestation rates. We argue that higher conservation priority is necessary so the Amazon rainforest can fulfill its capacity to

  13. Long-term hydrodynamic response induced by past climatic and geo-morphologic forcing: The case of the Paris basin, France

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jost, A.; Violette, S.; Goncalves, J.; Ledoux, E.; Guyomard, Y.; Guillocheau, F.; Kageyama, M.; Ramstein, G.; Suc, J.P.

    2007-01-01

    In the framework of safe underground storage of radioactive waste in low-permeability layers, it is essential to evaluate the mobility of deep groundwaters over timescales of several million years. On these timescales, the environmental evolution of a repository should depend upon a range of natural processes that are primarily driven by climate and geo-morphologic variations. In this paper, the response of the Paris basin groundwater system to variations in its hydrodynamic boundary conditions induced by past climate and geodynamic changes over the last five million years is investigated. A three-dimensional transient modelling of the Paris basin aquifer/aquitard system was developed using the code NEWSAM (Ecole des Mines de Paris, ENSMP). The geometry and hydrodynamic parameters of the model originate from a basin model, NEWBAS (ENSMP), built to simulate the geological history of the basin. Geo-morphologic evolution is deduced from digital elevation model analysis, which allows to estimate river-valley incision and alpine uplift. Climate forcing results from paleo-climate modelling experiments using the LMDz atmospheric general circulation model (Institut Pierre Simon Laplace) with a refined spatial resolution, for the present, the Last Glacial Maximum (21 ka) and the Middle Pliocene Warmth (similar to 3 Ma). The water balance is computed by the distributed hydrological model MODSUR (ENSMP). Results about the simulated evolution of piezometric heads in the system in response to the altered boundary conditions are presented, in particular in the vicinity of ANDRA's Bure potential repository site within the Callovo-Oxfordian argillaceous layer. For the present, the comparison of head patterns between steady state and time dependent simulation shows little differences for aquifer layers close to the surface but suggests a transient state of the current system in the main aquitards of the basin and in the deep aquifers, characterized by abnormally low fluid

  14. Comparison of Water and Nutrient Cycles in the North China Plain and U.S. High Plains related to Climate Forcing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scanlon, B. R.; Pei, H.; Shen, Y.

    2014-12-01

    The North China Plain (NCP) and U.S. High Plains play critical roles in food production, which relies heavily on groundwater resources for irrigation and nutrients. Here we evaluate food production in terms of resource availability (water and nutrients) and impacts on resources (groundwater quantity and quality) within the context of climate forcing. Double cropping of corn and wheat in the NCP under intensive irrigation (80 - 90% of cropland) and massive N fertilization (384 kg/ha) resulted in total corn plus wheat yields of 13.4 kg/ha (2002 - 2011). In contrast, single cropping of corn on the USHP under less intensive irrigation (40% of cropland) and N fertilization (90 kg/ha) resulted in only 15% lower yield in the USHP (11.7 kg/ha) than in the NCP. However, irrigation essentially decouples crop production from climate extremes. Average corn and wheat yield in the NCP over the past three decades is not correlated with precipitation. Irrigated corn yield in the north and central USHP was actually higher during the recent 2012 drought by up to ~ 30% relative to the 30 year long-term mean yield whereas rainfed corn yield decreased by ~50% during the drought. The main impact of climate extremes on the aquifers is indirect through increased irrigation pumpage for crop production rather than direct through changes in recharge. Effects of crop production on groundwater quality should be much greater in the NCP because of ~4 times higher fertilizer application relative to that in the USHP. Field research experiments in the NCP indicate that much of this fertilizer application (> 200 kg N/ha) does not impact yield and could potentially leach into underlying aquifers. Projected groundwater depletion in these aquifers should result in a shift from intensive irrigation to more rainfed crop production, increasing vulnerability of crop production to climate extremes.

  15. Early warning of climate tipping points

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lenton, Timothy M.

    2011-07-01

    A climate 'tipping point' occurs when a small change in forcing triggers a strongly nonlinear response in the internal dynamics of part of the climate system, qualitatively changing its future state. Human-induced climate change could push several large-scale 'tipping elements' past a tipping point. Candidates include irreversible melt of the Greenland ice sheet, dieback of the Amazon rainforest and shift of the West African monsoon. Recent assessments give an increased probability of future tipping events, and the corresponding impacts are estimated to be large, making them significant risks. Recent work shows that early warning of an approaching climate tipping point is possible in principle, and could have considerable value in reducing the risk that they pose.

  16. Application of Force and Energy Approaches to the Problem of a One-Dimensional, Fully Connected, Nonlinear-Spring Lattice Structure

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-09-01

    collection of  information  if  it does not display a  currently valid OMB  control  number.  PLEASE DO NOT RETURN YOUR FORM TO THE ABOVE ADDRESS.  1...section of the body. In general, this force balancing requires vectorial addition; however, because the problem under consideration is a 1-D lattice...than 1, the formulations would be still more intricate, as vectorial calculations 15 would be required for component resolution. In the force approach

  17. Post-glacial climate forcing of surface processes in the Ganges-Brahmaputra river basin and implications for carbon sequestration

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hein, Christopher J.; Galy, Valier; Galy, Albert; France-Lanord, Christian; Kudrass, Hermann; Schwenk, Tilmann

    2017-11-01

    Climate has been proposed to control both the rate of terrestrial silicate weathering and the export rate of associated sediments and terrestrial organic carbon to river-dominated margins - and thus the rate of sequestration of atmospheric CO2 in the coastal ocean - over glacial-interglacial timescales. Focused on the Ganges-Brahmaputra rivers, this study presents records of post-glacial changes in basin-scale Indian summer monsoon intensity and vegetation composition based on stable hydrogen (δD) and carbon (δ13C) isotopic compositions of terrestrial plant wax compounds preserved in the channel-levee system of the Bengal Fan. It then explores the role of these changes in controlling the provenance and degree of chemical weathering of sediments exported by these rivers, and the potential climate feedbacks through organic-carbon burial in the Bengal Fan. An observed 40‰ shift in δD and a 3-4‰ shift in both bulk organic-carbon and plant-wax δ13C values between the late glacial and mid-Holocene, followed by a return to more intermediate values during the late Holocene, correlates well with regional post-glacial paleoclimate records. Sediment provenance proxies (Sr, Nd isotopic compositions) reveal that these changes likely coincided with a subtle focusing of erosion on the southern flank of the Himalayan range during periods of greater monsoon strength and enhanced sediment discharge. However, grain-size-normalized organic-carbon concentrations in the Bengal Fan remained constant through time, despite order-of-magnitude level changes in catchment-scale monsoon precipitation and enhanced chemical weathering (recorded as a gradual increase in K/Si* and detrital carbonate content, and decrease in H2O+/Si*, proxies) throughout the study period. These findings demonstrate a partial decoupling of climate change and silicate weathering during the Holocene and that marine organic-carbon sequestration rates primary reflect rates of physical erosion and sediment export

  18. Cubication of conservative nonlinear oscillators

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Belendez, Augusto; Alvarez, Mariela L; Fernandez, Elena; Pascual, Inmaculada

    2009-01-01

    A cubication procedure of the nonlinear differential equation for conservative nonlinear oscillators is analysed and discussed. This scheme is based on the Chebyshev series expansion of the restoring force, and this allows us to approximate the original nonlinear differential equation by a Duffing equation in which the coefficients for the linear and cubic terms depend on the initial amplitude, A, while in a Taylor expansion of the restoring force these coefficients are independent of A. The replacement of the original nonlinear equation by an approximate Duffing equation allows us to obtain an approximate frequency-amplitude relation as a function of the complete elliptic integral of the first kind. Some conservative nonlinear oscillators are analysed to illustrate the usefulness and effectiveness of this scheme.

  19. Climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1990-01-01

    In this paper, the authors discuss in brief the magnitude and rate of past changes in climate and examine the various factors influencing climate in order to place the potential warming due to increasing greenhouse gas concentrations in context. Feedback mechanisms that can amplify or lessen imposed climate changes are discussed next. The overall sensitivity of climate to changes in forcing is then considered, followed by a discussion of the time-dependent response of the Earth system. The focus is on global temperature as an indicator for the magnitude of climatic change

  20. Long-term ice sheet-climate interactions under anthropogenic greenhouse forcing simulated with a complex Earth System Model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vizcaino, Miren [Max-Planck-Institut fuer Meteorologie, Hamburg (Germany); University of California, Department of Geography, Berkeley, CA (United States); Mikolajewicz, Uwe; Maier-Reimer, Ernst [Max-Planck-Institut fuer Meteorologie, Hamburg (Germany); Groeger, Matthias [Max-Planck-Institut fuer Meteorologie, Hamburg (Germany); IFM-GEOMAR, Kiel (Germany); Schurgers, Guy [Max-Planck-Institut fuer Meteorologie, Hamburg (Germany); Lund University, Department of Physical Geography and Ecosystems Analysis, Lund (Sweden); Winguth, Arne M.E. [Center for Climatic Research, Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, Madison (United States)

    2008-11-15

    Several multi-century and multi-millennia simulations have been performed with a complex Earth System Model (ESM) for different anthropogenic climate change scenarios in order to study the long-term evolution of sea level and the impact of ice sheet changes on the climate system. The core of the ESM is a coupled coarse-resolution Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Model (AOGCM). Ocean biogeochemistry, land vegetation and ice sheets are included as components of the ESM. The Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) decays in all simulations, while the Antarctic ice sheet contributes negatively to sea level rise, due to enhanced storage of water caused by larger snowfall rates. Freshwater flux increases from Greenland are one order of magnitude smaller than total freshwater flux increases into the North Atlantic basin (the sum of the contribution from changes in precipitation, evaporation, run-off and Greenland meltwater) and do not play an important role in changes in the strength of the North Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (NAMOC). The regional climate change associated with weakening/collapse of the NAMOC drastically reduces the decay rate of the GrIS. The dynamical changes due to GrIS topography modification driven by mass balance changes act first as a negative feedback for the decay of the ice sheet, but accelerate the decay at a later stage. The increase of surface temperature due to reduced topographic heights causes a strong acceleration of the decay of the ice sheet in the long term. Other feedbacks between ice sheet and atmosphere are not important for the mass balance of the GrIS until it is reduced to 3/4 of the original size. From then, the reduction in the albedo of Greenland strongly accelerates the decay of the ice sheet. (orig.)

  1. Pescara benchmarks: nonlinear identification

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gandino, E.; Garibaldi, L.; Marchesiello, S.

    2011-07-01

    Recent nonlinear methods are suitable for identifying large systems with lumped nonlinearities, but in practice most structural nonlinearities are distributed and an ideal nonlinear identification method should cater for them as well. In order to extend the current NSI method to be applied also on realistic large engineering structures, a modal counterpart of the method is proposed in this paper. The modal NSI technique is applied on one of the reinforced concrete beams that have been tested in Pescara, under the project titled "Monitoring and diagnostics of railway bridges by means of the analysis of the dynamic response due to train crossing", financed by Italian Ministry of Research. The beam showed a softening nonlinear behaviour, so that the nonlinearity concerning the first mode is characterized and its force contribution is quantified. Moreover, estimates for the modal parameters are obtained and the model is validated by comparing the measured and the reconstructed output. The identified estimates are also used to accurately predict the behaviour of the same beam, when subject to different initial conditions.

  2. Pescara benchmarks: nonlinear identification

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gandino, E; Garibaldi, L; Marchesiello, S

    2011-01-01

    Recent nonlinear methods are suitable for identifying large systems with lumped nonlinearities, but in practice most structural nonlinearities are distributed and an ideal nonlinear identification method should cater for them as well. In order to extend the current NSI method to be applied also on realistic large engineering structures, a modal counterpart of the method is proposed in this paper. The modal NSI technique is applied on one of the reinforced concrete beams that have been tested in Pescara, under the project titled M onitoring and diagnostics of railway bridges by means of the analysis of the dynamic response due to train crossing , financed by Italian Ministry of Research. The beam showed a softening nonlinear behaviour, so that the nonlinearity concerning the first mode is characterized and its force contribution is quantified. Moreover, estimates for the modal parameters are obtained and the model is validated by comparing the measured and the reconstructed output. The identified estimates are also used to accurately predict the behaviour of the same beam, when subject to different initial conditions.

  3. Climate Forcing of Ripple Migration and Crest Alignment in the Last 400 kyr in Meridiani Planum, Mars

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fenton, Lori K.; Carson, Helen C.; Michaels, Timothy I.

    2018-04-01

    The plains ripples of Meridiani Planum are the first paleo-aeolian bedforms on Mars to have had their last migration episode constrained in time (to 50-200 ka). Here we test how variations in orbital configuration, air pressure, and atmospheric dust loading over the past 400 kyr affect bedform mobility and crest alignment. Using the National Aeronautics and Space Administration Ames Mars Global Climate Model, we ran a series of sensitivity tests under a number of different conditions, seeking changes in wind patterns relative to those modeled for present-day conditions. Results indicate that enhanced sand drift potential in Meridiani Planum correlates with (1) high axial obliquity, (2) a longitude of perihelion (Lp) near southern summer solstice, and (3) a greater air pressure. The last pulse of westward plains ripple migration likely occurred during the most recent obliquity (relative) maximum, from 111 to 86 ka. At Lp coinciding with southern summer solstice, the Mars Global Climate Model produced a westward resultant drift direction, consistent with the observed north-south plains ripple crest alignment. However, smaller superposed ripples, aligned NNE-SSW, are consistent with a strengthened northern summer Hadley return flow, occurring when Lp coincided with northern summer solstice. The superposed NNE-SSW ripples likely formed as the axial obliquity decreased during the last relative maximum and Lp swung toward northern summer, from 86 to 72 ka. The timeline of bedform activity supports the proposed sequence of CO2 sequestration in the south polar residual cap over the past 400 kyr.

  4. Nonlinear Science

    CERN Document Server

    Yoshida, Zensho

    2010-01-01

    This book gives a general, basic understanding of the mathematical structure "nonlinearity" that lies in the depths of complex systems. Analyzing the heterogeneity that the prefix "non" represents with respect to notions such as the linear space, integrability and scale hierarchy, "nonlinear science" is explained as a challenge of deconstruction of the modern sciences. This book is not a technical guide to teach mathematical tools of nonlinear analysis, nor a zoology of so-called nonlinear phenomena. By critically analyzing the structure of linear theories, and cl

  5. Nonlinear oscillations

    CERN Document Server

    Nayfeh, Ali Hasan

    1995-01-01

    Nonlinear Oscillations is a self-contained and thorough treatment of the vigorous research that has occurred in nonlinear mechanics since 1970. The book begins with fundamental concepts and techniques of analysis and progresses through recent developments and provides an overview that abstracts and introduces main nonlinear phenomena. It treats systems having a single degree of freedom, introducing basic concepts and analytical methods, and extends concepts and methods to systems having degrees of freedom. Most of this material cannot be found in any other text. Nonlinear Oscillations uses sim

  6. Arctic climate response to forcing from light-absorbing particles in snow and sea ice in CESM

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N. Goldenson

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available The presence of light-absorbing aerosol particles deposited on arctic snow and sea ice influences the surface albedo, causing greater shortwave absorption, warming, and loss of snow and sea ice, lowering the albedo further. The Community Earth System Model version 1 (CESM1 now includes the radiative effects of light-absorbing particles in snow on land and sea ice and in sea ice itself. We investigate the model response to the deposition of black carbon and dust to both snow and sea ice. For these purposes we employ a slab ocean version of CESM1, using the Community Atmosphere Model version 4 (CAM4, run to equilibrium for year 2000 levels of CO2 and fixed aerosol deposition. We construct experiments with and without aerosol deposition, with dust or black carbon deposition alone, and with varying quantities of black carbon and dust to approximate year 1850 and 2000 deposition fluxes. The year 2000 deposition fluxes of both dust and black carbon cause 1–2 °C of surface warming over large areas of the Arctic Ocean and sub-Arctic seas in autumn and winter and in patches of Northern land in every season. Atmospheric circulation changes are a key component of the surface-warming pattern. Arctic sea ice thins by on average about 30 cm. Simulations with year 1850 aerosol deposition are not substantially different from those with year 2000 deposition, given constant levels of CO2. The climatic impact of particulate impurities deposited over land exceeds that of particles deposited over sea ice. Even the surface warming over the sea ice and sea ice thinning depends more upon light-absorbing particles deposited over land. For CO2 doubled relative to year 2000 levels, the climate impact of particulate impurities in snow and sea ice is substantially lower than for the year 2000 equilibrium simulation.

  7. How Does The Climate Change?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, R. N.

    2011-12-01

    In 1997, maximum temperature in SE Australia shifted up by 0.8°C at pH0impact indicators: baumé levels in winegrapes shift >21 days earlier from 1998, streamflow records decrease by 30-70% from 1997 and annual mean forest fire danger index increased by 38% from 1997. Despite catastrophic fires killing 178 people in early 2009, the public remains unaware of this large change in their exposure. When regional temperature was separated into internally and externally forced components, the latter component was found to warm in two steps, in 1968-73 and 1997. These dates coincide with shifts in zonal mean temperature (24-44S; Figure 1). Climate model output shows similar step and trend behavior. Tests run on zonal, hemispheric and global mean temperature observations found shifts in all regions. 1997 marks a shift in global temperature of 0.3°C at pH0ocean heat content. The prevailing paradigm for how climate variables change is signal-noise construct combining a smooth signal with variations caused by internal climate variability. There seems to be no sound theoretical basis for this assumption. On the contrary, complex system behavior would suggest non-linear responses to externally forced change, especially at the regional scale. Some of our most basic assumptions about how climate changes may need to be re-examined.

  8. An analysis of the daily precipitation variability in the Himalayan orogen using a statistical parameterisation and its potential in driving landscape evolution models with stochastic climatic forcing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deal, Eric; Braun, Jean

    2015-04-01

    A current challenge in landscape evolution modelling is to integrate realistic precipitation patterns and behaviour into longterm fluvial erosion models. The effect of precipitation on fluvial erosion can be subtle as well as nonlinear, implying that changes in climate (e.g. precipitation magnitude or storminess) may have unexpected outcomes in terms of erosion rates. For example Tucker and Bras (2000) show theoretically that changes in the variability of precipitation (storminess) alone can influence erosion rate across a landscape. To complicate the situation further, topography, ultimately driven by tectonic uplift but shaped by erosion, has a major influence on the distribution and style of precipitation. Therefore, in order to untangle the coupling between climate, erosion and tectonics in an actively uplifting orogen where fluvial erosion is dominant it is important to understand how the 'rain dial' used in a landscape evolution model (LEM) corresponds to real precipitation patterns. One issue with the parameterisation of rainfall for use in an LEM is the difference between the timescales for precipitation (≤ 1 year) and landscape evolution (> 103 years). As a result, precipitation patterns must be upscaled before being integrated into a model. The relevant question then becomes: What is the most appropriate measure of precipitation on a millennial timescale? Previous work (Tucker and Bras, 2000; Lague, 2005) has shown that precipitation can be properly upscaled by taking into account its variable nature, along with its average magnitude. This captures the relative size and frequency of extreme events, ensuring a more accurate characterisation of the integrated effects of precipitation on erosion over long periods of time. In light of this work, we present a statistical parameterisation that accurately models the mean and daily variability of ground based (APHRODITE) and remotely sensed (TRMM) precipitation data in the Himalayan orogen with only a few

  9. Sensitivity of monthly streamflow forecasts to the quality of rainfall forcing: When do dynamical climate forecasts outperform the Ensemble Streamflow Prediction (ESP) method?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tanguy, M.; Prudhomme, C.; Harrigan, S.; Smith, K. A.; Parry, S.

    2017-12-01

    Forecasting hydrological extremes is challenging, especially at lead times over 1 month for catchments with limited hydrological memory and variable climates. One simple way to derive monthly or seasonal hydrological forecasts is to use historical climate data to drive hydrological models using the Ensemble Streamflow Prediction (ESP) method. This gives a range of possible future streamflow given known initial hydrologic conditions alone. The degree of skill of ESP depends highly on the forecast initialisation month and catchment type. Using dynamic rainfall forecasts as driving data instead of historical data could potentially improve streamflow predictions. A lot of effort is being invested within the meteorological community to improve these forecasts. However, while recent progress shows promise (e.g. NAO in winter), the skill of these forecasts at monthly to seasonal timescales is generally still limited, and the extent to which they might lead to improved hydrological forecasts is an area of active research. Additionally, these meteorological forecasts are currently being produced at 1 month or seasonal time-steps in the UK, whereas hydrological models require forcings at daily or sub-daily time-steps. Keeping in mind these limitations of available rainfall forecasts, the objectives of this study are to find out (i) how accurate monthly dynamical rainfall forecasts need to be to outperform ESP, and (ii) how the method used to disaggregate monthly rainfall forecasts into daily rainfall time series affects results. For the first objective, synthetic rainfall time series were created by increasingly degrading observed data (proxy for a `perfect forecast') from 0 % to +/-50 % error. For the second objective, three different methods were used to disaggregate monthly rainfall data into daily time series. These were used to force a simple lumped hydrological model (GR4J) to generate streamflow predictions at a one-month lead time for over 300 catchments

  10. Nonlinear systems

    CERN Document Server

    Palmero, Faustino; Lemos, M; Sánchez-Rey, Bernardo; Casado-Pascual, Jesús

    2018-01-01

    This book presents an overview of the most recent advances in nonlinear science. It provides a unified view of nonlinear properties in many different systems and highlights many  new developments. While volume 1 concentrates on mathematical theory and computational techniques and challenges, which are essential for the study of nonlinear science, this second volume deals with nonlinear excitations in several fields. These excitations can be localized and transport energy and matter in the form of breathers, solitons, kinks or quodons with very different characteristics, which are discussed in the book. They can also transport electric charge, in which case they are known as polarobreathers or solectrons. Nonlinear excitations can influence function and structure in biology, as for example, protein folding. In crystals and other condensed matter, they can modify transport properties, reaction kinetics and interact with defects. There are also engineering applications in electric lattices, Josephson junction a...

  11. Identifying trends in climate: an application to the cenozoic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Richards, Gordon R.

    1998-05-01

    The recent literature on trending in climate has raised several issues, whether trends should be modeled as deterministic or stochastic, whether trends are nonlinear, and the relative merits of statistical models versus models based on physics. This article models trending since the late Cretaceous. This 68 million-year interval is selected because the reliability of tests for trending is critically dependent on the length of time spanned by the data. Two main hypotheses are tested, that the trend has been caused primarily by CO2 forcing, and that it reflects a variety of forcing factors which can be approximated by statistical methods. The CO2 data is obtained from model simulations. Several widely-used statistical models are found to be inadequate. ARIMA methods parameterize too much of the short-term variation, and do not identify low frequency movements. Further, the unit root in the ARIMA process does not predict the long-term path of temperature. Spectral methods also have little ability to predict temperature at long horizons. Instead, the statistical trend is estimated using a nonlinear smoothing filter. Both of these paradigms make it possible to model climate as a cointegrated process, in which temperature can wander quite far from the trend path in the intermediate term, but converges back over longer horizons. Comparing the forecasting properties of the two trend models demonstrates that the optimal forecasting model includes CO2 forcing and a parametric representation of the nonlinear variability in climate.

  12. Weakly nonlinear electron plasma waves in collisional plasmas

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pecseli, H. L.; Rasmussen, J. Juul; Tagare, S. G.

    1986-01-01

    The nonlinear evolution of a high frequency plasma wave in a weakly magnetized, collisional plasma is considered. In addition to the ponderomotive-force-nonlinearity the nonlinearity due to the heating of the electrons is taken into account. A set of nonlinear equations including the effect...

  13. Carbon Sequestration in Arable Soils is Likely to Increase Nitrous Oxide Emissions, Offsetting Reductions in Climate Radiative Forcing

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Li, Changsheng Li; Frolking, S.; Butterbach-Bahl, K.

    2005-01-01

    Strategies for mitigating the increasing concentration of carbon dioxide (CO2) in the atmosphere include sequestering carbon (C) in soils and vegetation of terrestrial ecosystems. Carbon and nitrogen (N) move through terrestrial ecosystems in coupled biogeochemical cycles, and increasing C stocks in soils and vegetation will have an impact on the N cycle. We conducted simulations with a biogeochemical model to evaluate the impact of different cropland management strategies on the coupled cycles of C and N, with special emphasis on C-sequestration and emission of the greenhouse gases methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O). Reduced tillage, enhanced crop residue incorporation, and farmyard manure application each increased soil C-sequestration, increased N2O emissions, and had little effect on CH4 uptake. Over 20 years, increases in N2O emissions, which were converted into CO2-equivalent emissions with 100-year global warming potential multipliers, offset 75-310% of the carbon sequestered, depending on the scenario. Quantification of these types of biogeochemical interactions must be incorporated into assessment frameworks and trading mechanisms to accurately evaluate the value of agricultural systems in strategies for climate protection

  14. Response of a comprehensive climate model to a broad range of external forcings: relevance for deep ocean ventilation and the development of late Cenozoic ice ages

    Science.gov (United States)

    Galbraith, Eric; de Lavergne, Casimir

    2018-03-01

    Over the past few million years, the Earth descended from the relatively warm and stable climate of the Pliocene into the increasingly dramatic ice age cycles of the Pleistocene. The influences of orbital forcing and atmospheric CO2 on land-based ice sheets have long been considered as the key drivers of the ice ages, but less attention has been paid to their direct influences on the circulation of the deep ocean. Here we provide a broad view on the influences of CO2, orbital forcing and ice sheet size according to a comprehensive Earth system model, by integrating the model to equilibrium under 40 different combinations of the three external forcings. We find that the volume contribution of Antarctic (AABW) vs. North Atlantic (NADW) waters to the deep ocean varies widely among the simulations, and can be predicted from the difference between the surface densities at AABW and NADW deep water formation sites. Minima of both the AABW-NADW density difference and the AABW volume occur near interglacial CO2 (270-400 ppm). At low CO2, abundant formation and northward export of sea ice in the Southern Ocean contributes to very salty and dense Antarctic waters that dominate the global deep ocean. Furthermore, when the Earth is cold, low obliquity (i.e. a reduced tilt of Earth's rotational axis) enhances the Antarctic water volume by expanding sea ice further. At high CO2, AABW dominance is favoured due to relatively warm subpolar North Atlantic waters, with more dependence on precession. Meanwhile, a large Laurentide ice sheet steers atmospheric circulation as to strengthen the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, but cools the Southern Ocean remotely, enhancing Antarctic sea ice export and leading to very salty and expanded AABW. Together, these results suggest that a `sweet spot' of low CO2, low obliquity and relatively small ice sheets would have poised the AMOC for interruption, promoting Dansgaard-Oeschger-type abrupt change. The deep ocean temperature and

  15. Non-Linear Response to Periodic Forcing of Methane-Air Global and Detailed Kinetics in Continuous Stirred Tank Reactors Close to Extinction Conditions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Francesco Saverio Marra

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available This paper focus on the behavior of a continuous stirred tank reactor (CSTR subject to perturbations of finite amplitude and frequency. Two main objectives are pursued: to determine the extinction line in the equivalence ratio (φ - residence time (τ plane, fixed the thermodynamic state conditions; and to characterize the response of the chemical system to periodic forcing of the residence time. Transient simulations of combustion of methane with air, using both global single-step and detailed chemical kinetic mechanisms, have been conducted and the corresponding asymptotic solutions analyzed. Results indicate very different dynamical behaviors, posing the issue of a proper choice of the kinetic scheme for the numerical study of combustion oscillations.

  16. Aerosol optical properties and radiative forcing in the high Himalaya based on measurements at the Nepal Climate Observatory-Pyramid site (5079 m a.s.l.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Marcq

    2010-07-01

    Full Text Available Intense anthropogenic emissions over the Indian sub-continent lead to the formation of layers of particulate pollution that can be transported to the high altitude regions of the Himalaya-Hindu-Kush (HKH. Aerosol particles contain a substantial fraction of strongly absorbing material, including black carbon (BC, organic compounds (OC, and dust all of which can contribute to atmospheric warming, in addition to greenhouse gases. Using a 3-year record of continuous measurements of aerosol optical properties, we present a time series of key climate relevant aerosol properties including the aerosol absorption (σap and scattering (σsp coefficients as well as the single-scattering albedo (w0. Results of this investigation show substantial seasonal variability of these properties, with long range transport during the pre- and post-monsoon seasons and efficient precipitation scavenging of aerosol particles during the monsoon season. The monthly averaged scattering coefficients range from 0.1 Mm−1 (monsoon to 20 Mm−1 while the average absorption coefficients range from 0.5 Mm−1 to 3.5 Mm−1. Both have their maximum values during the pre-monsoon period (April and reach a minimum during Monsoon (July–August. This leads to dry w0 values from 0.86 (pre-monsoon to 0.79 (monsoon seasons. Significant diurnal variability due to valley wind circulation is also reported. Using aerosol optical depth (AOD measurements, we calculated the resulting direct local radiative forcing due to aerosols for selected air mass cases. We found that the presence of absorbing particulate material can locally induce an additional top of the atmosphere (TOA forcing of 10 to 20 W m−2 for the first atmospheric layer (500 m above surface. The TOA positive forcing depends on the presence of snow at the surface, and takes place preferentially during episodes of

  17. Nonlinear optics

    CERN Document Server

    Boyd, Robert W

    2013-01-01

    Nonlinear Optics is an advanced textbook for courses dealing with nonlinear optics, quantum electronics, laser physics, contemporary and quantum optics, and electrooptics. Its pedagogical emphasis is on fundamentals rather than particular, transitory applications. As a result, this textbook will have lasting appeal to a wide audience of electrical engineering, physics, and optics students, as well as those in related fields such as materials science and chemistry.Key Features* The origin of optical nonlinearities, including dependence on the polarization of light* A detailed treatment of the q

  18. On nonlinear periodic drift waves

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kauschke, U.; Schlueter, H.

    1990-09-01

    Nonlinear periodic drift waves are investigated on the basis of a simple perturbation scheme for both the amplitude and inverse frequency. The coefficients for the generation of the forced harmonics are derived, a nonlinear dispersion relation is suggested and a criterion for the onset of the modulational instability is obtained. The results are compared with the ones obtained with the help of a standard KBM-treatment. Moreover cnoidal drift waves are suggested and compared to an experimental observation. (orig.)

  19. Nonlinear systems

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Drazin, P. G

    1992-01-01

    This book is an introduction to the theories of bifurcation and chaos. It treats the solution of nonlinear equations, especially difference and ordinary differential equations, as a parameter varies...

  20. Nonlinear analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Gasinski, Leszek

    2005-01-01

    Hausdorff Measures and Capacity. Lebesgue-Bochner and Sobolev Spaces. Nonlinear Operators and Young Measures. Smooth and Nonsmooth Analysis and Variational Principles. Critical Point Theory. Eigenvalue Problems and Maximum Principles. Fixed Point Theory.

  1. Evaluation of preindustrial to present-day black carbon and its albedo forcing from Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Y. H. Lee

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available As part of the Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP, we evaluate the historical black carbon (BC aerosols simulated by 8 ACCMIP models against observations including 12 ice core records, long-term surface mass concentrations, and recent Arctic BC snowpack measurements. We also estimate BC albedo forcing by performing additional simulations using offline models with prescribed meteorology from 1996–2000. We evaluate the vertical profile of BC snow concentrations from these offline simulations using the recent BC snowpack measurements. Despite using the same BC emissions, the global BC burden differs by approximately a factor of 3 among models due to differences in aerosol removal parameterizations and simulated meteorology: 34 Gg to 103 Gg in 1850 and 82 Gg to 315 Gg in 2000. However, the global BC burden from preindustrial to present-day increases by 2.5–3 times with little variation among models, roughly matching the 2.5-fold increase in total BC emissions during the same period. We find a large divergence among models at both Northern Hemisphere (NH and Southern Hemisphere (SH high latitude regions for BC burden and at SH high latitude regions for deposition fluxes. The ACCMIP simulations match the observed BC surface mass concentrations well in Europe and North America except at Ispra. However, the models fail to predict the Arctic BC seasonality due to severe underestimations during winter and spring. The simulated vertically resolved BC snow concentrations are, on average, within a factor of 2–3 of the BC snowpack measurements except for Greenland and the Arctic Ocean. For the ice core evaluation, models tend to adequately capture both the observed temporal trends and the magnitudes at Greenland sites. However, models fail to predict the decreasing trend of BC depositions/ice core concentrations from the 1950s to the 1970s in most Tibetan Plateau ice cores. The distinct temporal trend at the Tibetan

  2. Evaluation of preindustrial to present-day black carbon and its albedo forcing from Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Y. H.; Lamarque, J.-F.; Flanner, M. G.; Jiao, C.; Shindell, D. T.; Bernsten, T.; Bisiaux, M. M.; Cao, J.; Collins, W. J.; Curran, M.; hide

    2013-01-01

    As part of the Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP), we evaluate the historical black carbon (BC) aerosols simulated by 8 ACCMIP models against observations including 12 ice core records, long-term surface mass concentrations, and recent Arctic BC snowpack measurements. We also estimate BC albedo forcing by performing additional simulations using offline models with prescribed meteorology from 1996-2000. We evaluate the vertical profile of BC snow concentrations from these offline simulations using the recent BC snowpack measurements. Despite using the same BC emissions, the global BC burden differs by approximately a factor of 3 among models due to differences in aerosol removal parameterizations and simulated meteorology: 34 Gg to 103 Gg in 1850 and 82 Gg to 315 Gg in 2000. However, the global BC burden from preindustrial to present-day increases by 2.5-3 times with little variation among models, roughly matching the 2.5-fold increase in total BC emissions during the same period.We find a large divergence among models at both Northern Hemisphere (NH) and Southern Hemisphere (SH) high latitude regions for BC burden and at SH high latitude regions for deposition fluxes. The ACCMIP simulations match the observed BC surface mass concentrations well in Europe and North America except at Ispra. However, the models fail to predict the Arctic BC seasonality due to severe underestimations during winter and spring. The simulated vertically resolved BC snow concentrations are, on average, within a factor of 2-3 of the BC snowpack measurements except for Greenland and the Arctic Ocean. For the ice core evaluation, models tend to adequately capture both the observed temporal trends and the magnitudes at Greenland sites. However, models fail to predict the decreasing trend of BC depositions/ice core concentrations from the 1950s to the 1970s in most Tibetan Plateau ice cores. The distinct temporal trend at the Tibetan Plateau ice cores

  3. Overview of the Chemistry-Aerosol Mediterranean Experiment/Aerosol Direct Radiative Forcing on the Mediterranean Climate (ChArMEx/ADRIMED summer 2013 campaign

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Mallet

    2016-01-01

    direct forcing, in situ surface and aircraft observations have been merged and used as inputs in 1-D radiative transfer codes for calculating the aerosol direct radiative forcing (DRF. Results show significant surface SW instantaneous forcing (up to −90 W m−2 at noon. Aircraft observations provide also original estimates of the vertical structure of SW and LW radiative heating revealing significant instantaneous values of about 5° K per day in the solar spectrum (for a solar angle of 30° within the dust layer. Associated 3-D modeling studies from regional climate (RCM and chemistry transport (CTM models indicate a relatively good agreement for simulated AOD compared with observations from the AERONET/PHOTONS network and satellite data, especially for long-range dust transport. Calculations of the 3-D SW (clear-sky surface DRF indicate an average of about −10 to −20 W m−2 (for the whole period over the Mediterranean Sea together with maxima (−50 W m−2 over northern Africa. The top of the atmosphere (TOA DRF is shown to be highly variable within the domain, due to moderate absorbing properties of dust and changes in the surface albedo. Indeed, 3-D simulations indicate negative forcing over the Mediterranean Sea and Europe and positive forcing over northern Africa. Finally, a multi-year simulation, performed for the 2003 to 2009 period and including an ocean–atmosphere (O–A coupling, underlines the impact of the aerosol direct radiative forcing on the sea surface temperature, O–A fluxes and the hydrological cycle over the Mediterranean.

  4. Climate change, pink salmon, and the nexus between bottom-up and top-down forcing in the subarctic Pacific Ocean and Bering Sea.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Springer, Alan M; van Vliet, Gus B

    2014-05-06

    Climate change in the last century was associated with spectacular growth of many wild Pacific salmon stocks in the North Pacific Ocean and Bering Sea, apparently through bottom-up forcing linking meteorology to ocean physics, water temperature, and plankton production. One species in particular, pink salmon, became so numerous by the 1990s that they began to dominate other species of salmon for prey resources and to exert top-down control in the open ocean ecosystem. Information from long-term monitoring of seabirds in the Aleutian Islands and Bering Sea reveals that the sphere of influence of pink salmon is much larger than previously known. Seabirds, pink salmon, other species of salmon, and by extension other higher-order predators, are tightly linked ecologically and must be included in international management and conservation policies for sustaining all species that compete for common, finite resource pools. These data further emphasize that the unique 2-y cycle in abundance of pink salmon drives interannual shifts between two alternate states of a complex marine ecosystem.

  5. Statistical Emulation of Climate Model Projections Based on Precomputed GCM Runs*

    KAUST Repository

    Castruccio, Stefano

    2014-03-01

    The authors describe a new approach for emulating the output of a fully coupled climate model under arbitrary forcing scenarios that is based on a small set of precomputed runs from the model. Temperature and precipitation are expressed as simple functions of the past trajectory of atmospheric CO2 concentrations, and a statistical model is fit using a limited set of training runs. The approach is demonstrated to be a useful and computationally efficient alternative to pattern scaling and captures the nonlinear evolution of spatial patterns of climate anomalies inherent in transient climates. The approach does as well as pattern scaling in all circumstances and substantially better in many; it is not computationally demanding; and, once the statistical model is fit, it produces emulated climate output effectively instantaneously. It may therefore find wide application in climate impacts assessments and other policy analyses requiring rapid climate projections.

  6. The development of a non-linear autoregressive model with exogenous input (NARX) to model climate-water clarity relationships: reconstructing a historical water clarity index for the coastal waters of the southeastern USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Cameron C.; Sheridan, Scott C.; Barnes, Brian B.; Hu, Chuanmin; Pirhalla, Douglas E.; Ransibrahmanakul, Varis; Shein, Karsten

    2017-10-01

    The coastal waters of the southeastern USA contain important protected habitats and natural resources that are vulnerable to climate variability and singular weather events. Water clarity, strongly affected by atmospheric events, is linked to substantial environmental impacts throughout the region. To assess this relationship over the long-term, this study uses an artificial neural network-based time series modeling technique known as non-linear autoregressive models with exogenous input (NARX models) to explore the relationship between climate and a water clarity index (KDI) in this area and to reconstruct this index over a 66-year period. Results show that synoptic-scale circulation patterns, weather types, and precipitation all play roles in impacting water clarity to varying degrees in each region of the larger domain. In particular, turbid water is associated with transitional weather and cyclonic circulation in much of the study region. Overall, NARX model performance also varies—regionally, seasonally and interannually—with wintertime estimates of KDI along the West Florida Shelf correlating to the actual KDI at r > 0.70. Periods of extreme (high) KDI in this area coincide with notable El Niño events. An upward trend in extreme KDI events from 1948 to 2013 is also present across much of the Florida Gulf coast.

  7. Nonlinear optimization

    CERN Document Server

    Ruszczynski, Andrzej

    2011-01-01

    Optimization is one of the most important areas of modern applied mathematics, with applications in fields from engineering and economics to finance, statistics, management science, and medicine. While many books have addressed its various aspects, Nonlinear Optimization is the first comprehensive treatment that will allow graduate students and researchers to understand its modern ideas, principles, and methods within a reasonable time, but without sacrificing mathematical precision. Andrzej Ruszczynski, a leading expert in the optimization of nonlinear stochastic systems, integrates the theory and the methods of nonlinear optimization in a unified, clear, and mathematically rigorous fashion, with detailed and easy-to-follow proofs illustrated by numerous examples and figures. The book covers convex analysis, the theory of optimality conditions, duality theory, and numerical methods for solving unconstrained and constrained optimization problems. It addresses not only classical material but also modern top...

  8. Non-linear Feedbacks Between Forest Mortality and Climate Change: Implications for Snow Cover, Water Resources, and Ecosystem Recovery in Western North America (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brooks, P. D.; Harpold, A. A.; Biederman, J. A.; Gochis, D. J.; Litvak, M. E.; Ewers, B. E.; Broxton, P. D.; Reed, D. E.

    2013-12-01

    Unprecedented levels of tree mortality from insect infestation and wildfire are dramatically altering forest structure and composition in Western North America. Warming temperatures and increased drought stress have been implicated as major factors in the increasing spatial extent and frequency of these forest disturbances, but it is unclear how these changes in forest structure will interact with ongoing climate change to affect snowmelt water resources either for society or for ecosystem recovery following mortality. Because surface discharge, groundwater recharge, and ecosystem productivity all depend on seasonal snowmelt, a critical knowledge gap exists not only in predicting discharge, but in quantifying spatial and temporal variability in the partitioning of snowfall into abiotic vapor loss, plant available water, recharge, and streamflow within the complex mosaic of forest disturbance and topography that characterizes western mountain catchments. This presentation will address this knowledge gap by synthesizing recent work on snowpack dynamics and ecosystem productivity from seasonally snow-covered forests along a climate gradient from Arizona to Wyoming; including undisturbed sites, recently burned forests, and areas of extensive insect-induced forest mortality. Both before-after and control-impacted studies of forest disturbance on snow accumulation and ablation suggest that the spatial scale of snow distribution increases following disturbance, but net snow water input in a warming climate will increase only in topographically sheltered areas. While forest disturbance changes spatial scale of snowpack partitioning, the amount and especially the timing of snow cover accumulation and ablation are strongly related to interannual variability in ecosystem productivity with both earlier snowmelt and later snow accumulation associated with decreased carbon uptake. Empirical analyses and modeling are being developed to identify landscapes most sensitive to

  9. Abrupt Climate Change and the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation: sensitivity and non-linear response to Arctic/sub-Arctic freshwater pulses. Collaborative research. Final report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hill, Christopher [MIT (Massachusetts Inst. of Technology), Cambridge, MA (United States)

    2015-06-15

    This project investigated possible mechanisms by which melt-water pulses can induce abrupt change in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) magnitude. AMOC magnitude is an important ingredient in present day climate. Previous studies have hypothesized abrupt reduction in AMOC magnitude in response to influxes of glacial melt water into the North Atlantic. Notable fresh-water influxes are associated with the terminus of the last ice age. During this period large volumes of melt water accumulated behind retreating ice sheets and subsequently drained rapidly when the ice weakened sufficiently. Rapid draining of glacial lakes into the North Atlantic is a possible origin of a number of paleo-record abrupt climate shifts. These include the Younger-Dryas cooling event and the 8,200 year cooling event. The studies undertaken focused on whether the mechanistic sequence by which glacial melt-water impacts AMOC, which then impacts Northern Hemisphere global mean surface temperature, is dynamically plausible. The work has implications for better understanding past climate stability. The work also has relevance for today’s environment, in which high-latitude ice melting in Greenland appears to be driving fresh water outflows at an accelerating pace.

  10. Low-frequency and high-frequency changes in temperature and effective humidity during the Holocene in south-central Sweden: implications for atmospheric and oceanic forcings of climate

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Seppae, H. [University of Helsinki, Department of Geology, 64, Helsinki (Finland); Hammarlund, D. [Lund University, GeoBiosphere Science Centre, Quaternary Sciences, Lund (Sweden); Antonsson, K. [Uppsala University, Department of Earth Sciences, Uppsala (Sweden)

    2005-08-01

    An integrated use of independent palaeoclimatological proxy techniques that reflect different components of the climate system provides a potential key for functional analysis of past climate changes. Here we report a 10,000 year quantitative record of annual mean temperature (T{sub ann}), based on pollen-climate transfer functions and pollen-stratigraphical data from Lake Flarken, south-central Sweden. The pollen-based temperature reconstruction is compared with a reconstruction of effective humidity, as reflected by a {delta}{sup 18}O record obtained on stratigraphy of lacustrine carbonates from Lake Igelsjoen, c. 10 km from Lake Flarken, which gives evidence of pronounced changes in effective humidity. The relatively low T{sub ann}, and high effective humidity as reflected by a low evaporation/inflow ratio suggest a maritime early Holocene climate (10,000-8,300 cal year BP), seemingly incompatible with the highly seasonal solar insolation configuration. We argue that the maritime climate was due to the stronger-than-present zonal flow, enhanced by the high early Holocene sea-surface temperatures in the North Atlantic. The maritime climate mode was disrupted by the abrupt cold event at 8,200 cal year BP, followed at 8,000 cal year BP by a stable Holocene Thermal Maximum. The latter was characterized by T{sub ann} values about 2.5 C higher than at present and markedly dry conditions, indicative of stable summer-time anti-cyclonic circulation, possibly corresponding with modern blocking anticyclonic conditions. The last 4,300 year period is characterized by an increasingly cold, moist, and unstable climate. The results demonstrate the value of combining two independent palaeoclimatic proxies in enhancing the reliability, generality, and interpretability of the palaeoclimatic results. Further methodological refinements especially in resolving past seasonal climatic contrasts are needed to better understand the role of different forcing factors in driving millennial

  11. Nonlinear Phononic Periodic Structures and Granular Crystals

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-02-10

    and boron-nitride nanotubes, and attributed the rectification to nonlinear processes [21]. Based on these studies, several following works have...nonlinear mass-spring lattices by E. Fermi, J. Pasta , and S. Ulam in 1955 [27], there has been a wealth of interest in the dynamics of nonlinear...lattices. Using one of the first modern computers, Fermi, Pasta , and Ulam (FPU) studied a system where the restoring (spring) force between two adjacent

  12. Nonlinear (Anharmonic Casimir Oscillator

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Habibollah Razmi

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available We want to study the dynamics of a simple linear harmonic micro spring which is under the influence of the quantum Casimir force/pressure and thus behaves as a (an nonlinear (anharmonic Casimir oscillator. Generally, the equation of motion of this nonlinear micromechanical Casimir oscillator has no exact solvable (analytical solution and the turning point(s of the system has (have no fixed position(s; however, for particular values of the stiffness of the micro spring and at appropriately well-chosen distance scales and conditions, there is (are approximately sinusoidal solution(s for the problem (the variable turning points are collected in a very small interval of positions. This, as a simple and elementary plan, may be useful in controlling the Casimir stiction problem in micromechanical devices.

  13. Nonlinear Dynamics of Electrostatically Actuated MEMS Arches

    KAUST Repository

    Al Hennawi, Qais M.

    2015-01-01

    In this thesis, we present theoretical and experimental investigation into the nonlinear statics and dynamics of clamped-clamped in-plane MEMS arches when excited by an electrostatic force. Theoretically, we first solve the equation of motion using

  14. Evaluation of Preindustrial to Present-day Black Carbon and its Albedo Forcing from Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lee, Y. H.; Lamarque, J.-F.; Flanner, M. G.; Jiao, C.; Shindell, Drew; Berntsen, T.; Bisiauxs, M.; Cao, J.; Collins, W. J.; Curran, M.; Edwards, R.; Faluvegi, G.; Ghan, Steven J.; Horowitz, L.; McConnell, J.R.; Ming, J.; Myhre, G.; Nagashima, T.; Naik, Vaishali; Rumbold, S.; Skeie, R. B.; Sudo, K.; Takemura, T.; Thevenon, F.; Xu, B.; Yoon, Jin-Ho

    2013-03-05

    As a part of the Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP), we evaluate the historical black carbon (BC) aerosols simulated by 8 ACCMIP models against the observations including 12 ice core records, a long-term surface mass concentrations and recent Arctic BC snowpack measurements. We also estimate BC albedo forcing by performing additional simulations using the NCAR Community Land and Sea-Ice model 4 with prescribed meteorology from 1996-2000, which includes the SNICAR BC-snow model. We evaluated the vertical profile of BC snow concentrations from these offline simulations to using recent BC snowpack measurements. Despite using the same BC emissions, global BC burden differs by approximately a factor of 3 among models due to the differences in aerosol removal parameterizations and simulated meteorology among models; 34 Gg to 103 Gg in 1850 and 82 Gg to 315 Gg in 2000. However,models agree well on 2.5~3 times increase in the global BC burden from preindustrial to present-day, which matches with the 2.5 times increase in BC emissions. We find a large model diversity at both NH and SH high latitude regions for BC burden and at SH high latitude regions for deposition fluxes. The ACCMIP simulations match the observed BC mass concentrations well in Europe and North America except at Jungfrauch and Ispra. However, the models fail to capture the Arctic BC seasonality due tosevere underestimations during winter and spring. Compared to recent snowpack measurements, the simulated vertically resolved BC snow concentrations are, on average, within a factor of 2-3 of observations except for Greenland and Arctic Ocean. However, model and observation differ widely due to missing interannual variations in emissions and possibly due to the choice of the prescribed meteorology period (i.e., 1996-2000).

  15. The Response of Ice Sheets to Climate Variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Snow, K.; Goldberg, D. N.; Holland, P. R.; Jordan, J. R.; Arthern, R. J.; Jenkins, A.

    2017-12-01

    West Antarctic Ice Sheet loss is a significant contributor to sea level rise. While the ice loss is thought to be triggered by fluctuations in oceanic heat at the ice shelf bases, ice sheet response to ocean variability remains poorly understood. Using a synchronously coupled ice-ocean model permitting grounding line migration, this study evaluates the response of an ice sheet to periodic variations in ocean forcing. Resulting oscillations in grounded ice volume amplitude is shown to grow as a nonlinear function of ocean forcing period. This implies that slower oscillations in climatic forcing are disproportionately important to ice sheets. The ice shelf residence time offers a critical time scale, above which the ice response amplitude is a linear function of ocean forcing period and below which it is quadratic. These results highlight the sensitivity of West Antarctic ice streams to perturbations in heat fluxes occurring at decadal time scales.

  16. Teaching nonlinear dynamics through elastic cords

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chacon, R; Galan, C A; Sanchez-Bajo, F

    2011-01-01

    We experimentally studied the restoring force of a length of stretched elastic cord. A simple analytical expression for the restoring force was found to fit all the experimental results for different elastic materials. Remarkably, this analytical expression depends upon an elastic-cord characteristic parameter which exhibits two limiting values corresponding to two nonlinear springs with different Hooke's elastic constants. Additionally, the simplest model of elastic cord dynamics is capable of exhibiting a great diversity of nonlinear phenomena, including bifurcations and chaos, thus providing a suitable alternative model system for discussing the basic essentials of nonlinear dynamics in the context of intermediate physics courses at university level.

  17. Analysis of nonlinear behavior of loudspeakers using the instantaneous frequency

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Huang, Hai; Jacobsen, Finn

    2003-01-01

    on the Fourier transform. In this work, a new method using the instantaneous frequency is introduced for describing and characterizing loudspeaker nonlinearities. First, numerical integration is applied to simulate the nonlinearities of loudspeakers caused by two nonlinear parameters, force factor and stiffness...

  18. Nonlinear effects on mode-converted lower-hybrid waves

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kuehl, H.H.

    1976-01-01

    Nonlinear ponderomotive force effects on mode-converted lower-hybrid waves are considered. The nonlinear distortion of these waves is shown to be governed by the cubic nonlinear Schroedinger equation. The threshold condition for self-focusing and filamentation is derived

  19. Geometrically Nonlinear Transient Response of Laminated Plates with Nonlinear Elastic Restraints

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shaochong Yang

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available To investigate the dynamic behavior of laminated plates with nonlinear elastic restraints, a varied constraint force model and a systematic numerical procedure are presented in this work. Several kinds of typical relationships of force-displacement for spring are established to simulate the nonlinear elastic restraints. In addition, considering the restraining moments of flexible pads, the pads are modeled by translational and rotational springs. The displacement- dependent constraint forces are added to the right-hand side of equations of motion and treated as additional applied loads. These loads can be explicitly defined, via an independent set of nonlinear load functions. The time histories of transverse displacements at typical points of the laminated plate are obtained through the transient analysis. Numerical examples show that the present method can effectively treat the geometrically nonlinear transient response of plates with nonlinear elastic restraints.

  20. Nonlinear Elliptic Differential Equations with Multivalued Nonlinearities

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    In this paper we study nonlinear elliptic boundary value problems with monotone and nonmonotone multivalued nonlinearities. First we consider the case of monotone nonlinearities. In the first result we assume that the multivalued nonlinearity is defined on all R R . Assuming the existence of an upper and of a lower ...

  1. Organic matter recycling in a shallow coastal zone (NW Mediterranean): The influence of local and global climatic forcing and organic matter lability on hydrolytic enzyme activity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Misic, Cristina; Harriague, Anabella Covazzi

    2008-12-01

    Seawater and sediment were collected on a monthly basis from a shallow (10.5 m depth) coastal site in the Ligurian Sea (NW Mediterranean) from November 1993 to December 1994 to determine the main environmental forces that influenced the biogeochemical processes and to study the relationships between the availability and lability of the organic matter (OM) and hydrolytic enzymatic activity. The current direction throughout the sampling year was influenced by the climatic conditions, which showed significant correlations with north atlantic oscillation (NAO) index values. The current generally flowed northwards in spring. This could cause significantly lower transparency values than in the summer, when an eastward current probably reduced the allochthonous input of material from the main local watercourse and contributed to turning the conditions from mesotrophic to oligotrophic. Spring and summer were separated by transitional periods more than by the canonical autumn and winter seasons. These transitions were characterised by a reduction in salinity values and by resuspension caused by water column mixing and a current flowing towards the southwest. The significant inverse correlations of the chlorophyll- a and protein concentrations, bacterial abundance and proteolysis of the bottom seawater and transparency showed the direct influence of resuspension on the organic matter dynamics. Moreover, OM trophic quality influenced the bacterial parameters and the enzymatic activities. The glycolytic β glucosidase and chitinase activities and their bacterial cell-specific hydrolytic rates were higher when substrates such as hydrolysable proteins were available, while they decreased when refractory compounds were abundant. The low leucine aminopeptidase: β glucosidase ratio values observed in the water column were presumably related to the potential ease with which microbes obtained protein-derived materials and energy, the protein hydrolysable fraction being estimated at

  2. Climate catastrophes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Budyko, Mikhail

    1999-05-01

    Climate catastrophes, which many times occurred in the geological past, caused the extinction of large or small populations of animals and plants. Changes in the terrestrial and marine biota caused by the catastrophic climate changes undoubtedly resulted in considerable fluctuations in global carbon cycle and atmospheric gas composition. Primarily, carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gas contents were affected. The study of these catastrophes allows a conclusion that climate system is very sensitive to relatively small changes in climate-forcing factors (transparency of the atmosphere, changes in large glaciations, etc.). It is important to take this conclusion into account while estimating the possible consequences of now occurring anthropogenic warming caused by the increase in greenhouse gas concentration in the atmosphere.

  3. Forced magnetic reconnection

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vekstein, G.

    2017-10-01

    This is a tutorial-style selective review explaining basic concepts of forced magnetic reconnection. It is based on a celebrated model of forced reconnection suggested by J. B. Taylor. The standard magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) theory of this process has been pioneered by Hahm & Kulsrud (Phys. Fluids, vol. 28, 1985, p. 2412). Here we also discuss several more recent developments related to this problem. These include energetics of forced reconnection, its Hall-mediated regime, and nonlinear effects with the associated onset of the secondary tearing (plasmoid) instability.

  4. Nonlinear Control of Heartbeat Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Witt Thanom

    2011-02-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents a novel application of nonlinear control theory to heartbeat models. Existing heartbeat models are investigated and modified by incorporating the control input as a pacemaker to provide the control channel. A nonlinear feedback linearization technique is applied to force the output of the systems to generate artificial electrocardiogram (ECG signal using discrete data as the reference inputs. The synthetic ECG may serve as a flexible signal source to assess the effectiveness of a diagnostic ECG signal-processing device.

  5. Calculating Historical Contributions To Climate Change. Discussing The 'Brazilian Proposal'

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hoehne, N.; Blok, K.

    2005-01-01

    This paper discusses methodological issues relevant to the calculation of historical responsibility of countries for climate change ('The Brazilian Proposal'). Using a simple representation of the climate system, the paper compares contributions to climate change using different indicators: current radiative forcing, current GWP-weighted emissions, radiative forcing from increased concentrations, cumulative GWP-weighted emissions, global-average surface-air temperature increase and two new indicators: weighted concentrations (analogue to GWP-weighted emissions) and integrated temperature increase. Only the last two indicators are at the same time 'backward looking' (take into account historical emissions), 'backward discounting' (early emissions weigh less, depending on the decay in the atmosphere) and 'forward looking' (future effects of the emissions are considered) and are comparable for all gases. Cumulative GWP-weighted emissions are simple to calculate but are not 'backward discounting'. 'Radiative forcing' and 'temperature increase' are not 'forward looking'. 'Temperature increase' discounts the emissions of the last decade due to the slow response of the climate system. It therefore gives low weight to regions that have recently significantly increased emissions. Results of the five different indicators are quite similar for large groups (but possibly not for individual countries): industrialized countries contributed around 60% to today's climate change, developing countries around 40% (using the available data for fossil, industrial and forestry CO2, CH4 and N2O). The paper further argues including non-linearities of the climate system or using a simplified linear system is a political choice. The paper also notes that results of contributions to climate change need to be interpreted with care: Countries that developed early benefited economically, but have high historical emission, and countries developing at a later period can profit from developments

  6. Linear and nonlinear piezoelectric shunting strategies for vibration mitigation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Soltani P.

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper studies linear and nonlinear piezoelectric vibration absorbers that are designed based on the equal-peak method. A comparison between the performance of linear mechanical and electrical tuned vibration absorbers coupled to a linear oscillator is first performed. Nonlinearity is then introduced in the primary oscillator to which a new nonlinear electrical tuned vibration absorber is attached. Despite the frequency-energy dependence of nonlinear oscillations, we show that the nonlinear absorber is capable of effectively mitigating the vibrations of the nonlinear primary system in a large range of forcing amplitudes.

  7. The Effects of Discrimination on Job Satisfaction in the Military: Comparing Evidence from the Armed Forces Equal Opportunity Survey and the Military Equal Opportunity Climate Survey

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Stewart, James

    2001-01-01

    ...) are analyzed separately. Comparison of the two analyses confirms positive relations among racial/ethnic groups or, more generally, a healthy climate for equal opportunity is associated with higher levels of satisfaction...

  8. Vegetation dynamics and its driving forces from climate change and human activities in the Three-River Source Region, China from 1982 to 2012

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zhang, Ying; Zhang, Chaobin; Wang, Zhaoqi; Chen, Yizhao; Gang, Chengcheng [School of Life Science, Nanjing University, Xianlin Road 163, Qixia District, Nanjing, 210046 (China); An, Ru [School of Earth Science and Engineering, Hohai University, Xikang Road 129, Nanjing, 210098 (China); Li, Jianlong, E-mail: lijianlongnju@163.com [School of Life Science, Nanjing University, Xianlin Road 163, Qixia District, Nanjing, 210046 (China)

    2016-09-01

    The Three-River Source Region (TRSR), a region with key importance to the ecological security of China, has undergone climate changes and a shift in human activities driven by a series of ecological restoration projects in recent decades. To reveal the spatiotemporal dynamics of vegetation dynamics and calculate the contributions of driving factors in the TRSR across different periods from 1982 to 2012, net primary productivity (NPP) estimated using the Carnegie–Ames–Stanford approach model was used to assess the status of vegetation. The actual effects of different climatic variation trends on interannual variation in NPP were analyzed. Furthermore, the relationships of NPP with different climate factors and human activities were analyzed quantitatively. Results showed the following: from 1982 to 2012, the average NPP in the study area was 187.37 g cm{sup −2} yr{sup −1}. The average NPP exhibited a fluctuation but presented a generally increasing trend over the 31-year study period, with an increase rate of 1.31 g cm{sup −2} yr{sup −2}. During the entire study period, the average contributions of temperature, precipitation, and solar radiation to NPP interannual variation over the entire region were 0.58, 0.73, and 0.09 g cm{sup −2} yr{sup −2}, respectively. Radiation was the climate factor with the greatest influence on NPP interannual variation. The factor that restricted NPP increase changed from temperature and radiation to precipitation. The average contributions of climate change and human activities to NPP interannual variation were 1.40 g cm{sup −2} yr{sup −2} and − 0.08 g cm{sup −2} yr{sup −2}, respectively. From 1982 to 2000, the general climate conditions were favorable to vegetation recovery, whereas human activities had a weaker negative impact on vegetation growth. From 2001 to 2012, climate conditions began to have a negative impact on vegetation growth, whereas human activities made a favorable impact on vegetation

  9. Vegetation dynamics and its driving forces from climate change and human activities in the Three-River Source Region, China from 1982 to 2012

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhang, Ying; Zhang, Chaobin; Wang, Zhaoqi; Chen, Yizhao; Gang, Chengcheng; An, Ru; Li, Jianlong

    2016-01-01

    The Three-River Source Region (TRSR), a region with key importance to the ecological security of China, has undergone climate changes and a shift in human activities driven by a series of ecological restoration projects in recent decades. To reveal the spatiotemporal dynamics of vegetation dynamics and calculate the contributions of driving factors in the TRSR across different periods from 1982 to 2012, net primary productivity (NPP) estimated using the Carnegie–Ames–Stanford approach model was used to assess the status of vegetation. The actual effects of different climatic variation trends on interannual variation in NPP were analyzed. Furthermore, the relationships of NPP with different climate factors and human activities were analyzed quantitatively. Results showed the following: from 1982 to 2012, the average NPP in the study area was 187.37 g cm"−"2 yr"−"1. The average NPP exhibited a fluctuation but presented a generally increasing trend over the 31-year study period, with an increase rate of 1.31 g cm"−"2 yr"−"2. During the entire study period, the average contributions of temperature, precipitation, and solar radiation to NPP interannual variation over the entire region were 0.58, 0.73, and 0.09 g cm"−"2 yr"−"2, respectively. Radiation was the climate factor with the greatest influence on NPP interannual variation. The factor that restricted NPP increase changed from temperature and radiation to precipitation. The average contributions of climate change and human activities to NPP interannual variation were 1.40 g cm"−"2 yr"−"2 and − 0.08 g cm"−"2 yr"−"2, respectively. From 1982 to 2000, the general climate conditions were favorable to vegetation recovery, whereas human activities had a weaker negative impact on vegetation growth. From 2001 to 2012, climate conditions began to have a negative impact on vegetation growth, whereas human activities made a favorable impact on vegetation recovery. - Highlights: • Partitioned the

  10. Identification of Nonlinear Dynamic Systems Possessing Some Non-linearities

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Y. N. Pavlov

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The subject of this work is the problem of identification of nonlinear dynamic systems based on the experimental data obtained by applying test signals to the system. The goal is to determinate coefficients of differential equations of systems by experimental frequency hodographs and separate similar, but different, in essence, forces: dissipative forces with the square of the first derivative in the motion equations and dissipative force from the action of dry friction. There was a proposal to use the harmonic linearization method to approximate each of the nonlinearity of "quadratic friction" and "dry friction" by linear friction with the appropriate harmonic linearization coefficient.Assume that a frequency transfer function of the identified system has a known form. Assume as well that there are disturbances while obtaining frequency characteristics of the realworld system. As a result, the points of experimentally obtained hodograph move randomly. Searching for solution of the identification problem was in the hodograph class, specified by the system model, which has the form of the frequency transfer function the same as the form of the frequency transfer function of the system identified. Minimizing a proximity criterion (measure of the experimentally obtained system hodograph and the system hodograph model for all the experimental points described and previously published by one of the authors allowed searching for the unknown coefficients of the frequenc ransfer function of the system model. The paper shows the possibility to identify a nonlinear dynamic system with multiple nonlinearities, obtained on the experimental samples of the frequency system hodograph. The proposed algorithm allows to select the nonlinearity of the type "quadratic friction" and "dry friction", i.e. also in the case where the nonlinearity is dependent on the same dynamic parameter, in particular, on the derivative of the system output value. For the dynamic

  11. Perspectives on Nonlinear Filtering

    KAUST Repository

    Law, Kody

    2015-01-01

    The solution to the problem of nonlinear filtering may be given either as an estimate of the signal (and ideally some measure of concentration), or as a full posterior distribution. Similarly, one may evaluate the fidelity of the filter either by its ability to track the signal or its proximity to the posterior filtering distribution. Hence, the field enjoys a lively symbiosis between probability and control theory, and there are plenty of applications which benefit from algorithmic advances, from signal processing, to econometrics, to large-scale ocean, atmosphere, and climate modeling. This talk will survey some recent theoretical results involving accurate signal tracking with noise-free (degenerate) dynamics in high-dimensions (infinite, in principle, but say d between 103 and 108 , depending on the size of your application and your computer), and high-fidelity approximations of the filtering distribution in low dimensions (say d between 1 and several 10s).

  12. Perspectives on Nonlinear Filtering

    KAUST Repository

    Law, Kody

    2015-01-07

    The solution to the problem of nonlinear filtering may be given either as an estimate of the signal (and ideally some measure of concentration), or as a full posterior distribution. Similarly, one may evaluate the fidelity of the filter either by its ability to track the signal or its proximity to the posterior filtering distribution. Hence, the field enjoys a lively symbiosis between probability and control theory, and there are plenty of applications which benefit from algorithmic advances, from signal processing, to econometrics, to large-scale ocean, atmosphere, and climate modeling. This talk will survey some recent theoretical results involving accurate signal tracking with noise-free (degenerate) dynamics in high-dimensions (infinite, in principle, but say d between 103 and 108 , depending on the size of your application and your computer), and high-fidelity approximations of the filtering distribution in low dimensions (say d between 1 and several 10s).

  13. Gradient-based optimization in nonlinear structural dynamics

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dou, Suguang

    The intrinsic nonlinearity of mechanical structures can give rise to rich nonlinear dynamics. Recently, nonlinear dynamics of micro-mechanical structures have contributed to developing new Micro-Electro-Mechanical Systems (MEMS), for example, atomic force microscope, passive frequency divider......, frequency stabilization, and disk resonator gyroscope. For advanced design of these structures, it is of considerable value to extend current optimization in linear structural dynamics into nonlinear structural dynamics. In this thesis, we present a framework for modelling, analysis, characterization......, and optimization of nonlinear structural dynamics. In the modelling, nonlinear finite elements are used. In the analysis, nonlinear frequency response and nonlinear normal modes are calculated based on a harmonic balance method with higher-order harmonics. In the characterization, nonlinear modal coupling...

  14. Climate change and climate policy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Alfsen, Knut H.; Kolshus, Hans H.; Torvanger, Asbjoern

    2000-08-01

    The climate issue is a great political and scientific challenge for several reasons: (1) There are many uncertain aspects of the climate problem, such as future emission of climate gases, the response of the climate system upon these gases, and the effects of climate changes. (2) It is probable, however, that anthropogenic emission of climate gases, deforestation etc. will cause noticeable climate changes in the future. This might be observed as increased frequency of extreme weather situations. This appears to be a greater threat than a gradual increase of temperature and precipitation. (3) Since the climate system is large and react only relatively slowly on changes in for instance the emission of climate gases, the climate problem can only be solved by means of long-term measures. (4) The climate changes may be irreversible. A rational short-term strategy is to ensure maximum flexibility, which can be done by ''slowing down'' (curtailing emissions) and by avoiding irreversible actions as much as possible. The long-term challenge is to develop an economically responsible alternative to the present fossil-based energy system that permits carbon-efficient technologies to compete on price with coal and unconventional oil and gas. Norway is in a special position by being a large exporter of fossil fuel and at the same time wanting to appear responsible in environmental matters. This combination may incur considerable expenses upon Norway and it is therefore important that environmental commitments like the Kyoto agreement can be honoured to the lowest possible cost. The costs can be minimized by: (1) minimizing the measure costs in Norway, (2) working to make the international quota price as low as possible, and (3) reducing the loss of petroleum income as much as possible. This report describes the earth's climate history, the forces behind climatic changes and what the prospects for the future look like. It also reviews what is being done to curtail the emission of

  15. CLIMATE CHANGE: LONG-TERM TRENDS AND SHORT-TERM OSCILLATIONS

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    GAO Xin-quan; ZHANG Xin; QIAN Wei-hong

    2006-01-01

    Identifying the Northern Hemisphere (NH) temperature reconstruction and instrumental data for the past 1000 years shows that climate change in the last millennium includes long-term trends and various oscillations. Two long-term trends and the quasi-70-year oscillation were detected in the global temperature series for the last 140 years and the NH millennium series. One important feature was emphasized that temperature decreases slowly but it increases rapidly based on the analysis of different series. Benefits can be obtained of climate change from understanding various long-term trends and oscillations. Millennial temperature proxies from the natural climate system and time series of nonlinear model system are used in understanding the natural climate change and recognizing potential benefits by using the method of wavelet transform analysis. The results from numerical modeling show that major oscillations contained in numerical solutions on the interdecadal timescale are consistent with that of natural proxies. It seems that these oscillations in the climate change are not directly linked with the solar radiation as an external forcing. This investigation may conclude that the climate variability at the interdecadal timescale strongly depends on the internal nonlinear effects in the climate system.

  16. [Nonlinear magnetohydrodynamics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1994-01-01

    Resistive MHD equilibrium, even for small resistivity, differs greatly from ideal equilibrium, as do the dynamical consequences of its instabilities. The requirement, imposed by Faraday's law, that time independent magnetic fields imply curl-free electric fields, greatly restricts the electric fields allowed inside a finite-resistivity plasma. If there is no flow and the implications of the Ohm's law are taken into account (and they need not be, for ideal equilibria), the electric field must equal the resistivity times the current density. The vanishing of the divergence of the current density then provides a partial differential equation which, together with boundary conditions, uniquely determines the scalar potential, the electric field, and the current density, for any given resistivity profile. The situation parallels closely that of driven shear flows in hydrodynamics, in that while dissipative steady states are somewhat more complex than ideal ones, there are vastly fewer of them to consider. Seen in this light, the vast majority of ideal MHD equilibria are just irrelevant, incapable of being set up in the first place. The steady state whose stability thresholds and nonlinear behavior needs to be investigated ceases to be an arbitrary ad hoc exercise dependent upon the whim of the investigator, but is determined by boundary conditions and choice of resistivity profile

  17. Future discharge drought across climate regions around the world modelled with a synthetic hydrological modelling approach forced by three general circulation models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wanders, N.; Van Lanen, H. A J

    2015-01-01

    Hydrological drought characteristics (drought in groundwater and streamflow) likely will change in the 21st century as a result of climate change. The magnitude and directionality of these changes and their dependency on climatology and catchment characteristics, however, is uncertain. In this study

  18. Climate change and maize yield in southern Africa: what can farm management do?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rurinda, Jairos; van Wijk, Mark T; Mapfumo, Paul; Descheemaeker, Katrien; Supit, Iwan; Giller, Ken E

    2015-12-01

    There is concern that food insecurity will increase in southern Africa due to climate change. We quantified the response of maize yield to projected climate change and to three key management options - planting date, fertilizer use and cultivar choice - using the crop simulation model, agricultural production systems simulator (APSIM), at two contrasting sites in Zimbabwe. Three climate periods up to 2100 were selected to cover both near- and long-term climates. Future climate data under two radiative forcing scenarios were generated from five global circulation models. The temperature is projected to increase significantly in Zimbabwe by 2100 with no significant change in mean annual total rainfall. When planting before mid-December with a high fertilizer rate, the simulated average grain yield for all three maize cultivars declined by 13% for the periods 2010-2039 and 2040-2069 and by 20% for 2070-2099 compared with the baseline climate, under low radiative forc