Impact of oil prices, economic diversification policies and energy conservation programs on the electricity and water demands in Kuwait

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wood, Michael; Alsayegh, Osamah A.

2014-01-01

This paper describes the influences of oil revenue and government's policies toward economic developments and energy efficiency on the electricity and water demands. A Kuwait-specific electricity and water demand model was developed based on historic data of oil income, gross domestic product (GDP), population and electric load and water demand over the past twelve years (1998–2010). Moreover, the model took into account the future mega projects, annual new connected loads and expected application of energy conservation programs. It was run under six circumstances representing the combinations of three oil income scenarios and two government action policies toward economic diversification and energy conservation. The first government policy is the status quo with respect to economic diversification and applying energy conservation programs. The second policy scenario is the proactive strategy of raising the production of the non-oil sector revenue and enforcing legislations toward energy demand side management and conservation. In the upcoming 20 years, the average rates of change of the electric load and water demand increase are 0.13 GW and 3.0 MIGD, respectively, per US dollar oil price increase. Moreover, through proactive policy, the rates of average load and water demand decrease are 0.13 GW and 2.9 MIGD per year, respectively. - Highlights: • Kuwait-specific electricity and water demand model is presented. • Strong association between oil income and electricity and water demands. • Rate of change of electric load per US dollar oil price change is 0.13 GW. • Rate of change of water demand per US dollar oil price change is 3.0 MIGD. • By 2030, efficiency lowers electric load and water demand by 10 and 6%, respectively

On the global economic potentials and marginal costs of non-renewable resources and the price of energy commodities

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mercure, Jean-François; Salas, Pablo

2013-01-01

A model is presented in this work for simulating endogenously the evolution of the marginal costs of production of energy carriers from non-renewable resources, their consumption, depletion pathways and timescales. Such marginal costs can be used to simulate the long term average price formation of energy commodities. Drawing on previous work where a global database of energy resource economic potentials was constructed, this work uses cost distributions of non-renewable resources in order to evaluate global flows of energy commodities. A mathematical framework is given to calculate endogenous flows of energy resources given an exogenous commodity price path. This framework can be used in reverse in order to calculate an endogenous marginal cost of production of energy carriers given an exogenous carrier demand. Using rigid price inelastic assumptions independent of the economy, these two approaches generate limiting scenarios that depict extreme use of natural resources. This is useful to characterise the current state and possible uses of remaining non-renewable resources such as fossil fuels and natural uranium. The theory is however designed for use within economic or technology models that allow technology substitutions. In this work, it is implemented in the global power sector model FTT:Power. Policy implications are given. - Highlights: • Theoretical model to forecast marginal costs of non-renewable resources. • Tracks the consumption and costs of non-renewable resources. • For use in economic or technology models

Costs and potentials of energy conservation in China's coal-fired power industry: A bottom-up approach considering price uncertainties

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chen, Hao; Kang, Jia-Ning; Liao, Hua; Tang, Bao-Jun; Wei, Yi-Ming

2017-01-01

Energy conservation technologies in the coal-fired power sector are important solutions for the environmental pollution and climate change issues. However, a unified framework for estimating their costs and potentials is still needed due to the wide technology choices, especially considering their economic feasibility under fuel and carbon price uncertainties. Therefore, this study has employed a bottom-up approach to analyze the costs and potentials of 32 key technologies’ new promotions during the 13th Five-Year Plan period (2016–2020), which combines the conservation supply curve (CSC) approach and break-even analysis. Findings show that (1) these 32 technologies have a total coal conservation potential of 275.77 Mt with a cost of 238.82 billion yuan, and their break-even coal price is 866 yuan/ton. (2) steam-water circulation system has the largest energy conservation potential in the coal-fired power industry. (3) considering the co-benefits will facilitate these technologies’ promotions, because their break-even coal prices will decrease by 2.35 yuan/ton when the carbon prices increase by 1 yuan/ton. (4) discount rates have the largest impacts on the technologies’ cost-effectiveness, while the future generation level affect their energy conservation potentials most. - Highlights: • The 32 technologies can save 275.77 Mt coal with a cost of 238.82 billion yuan. • The steam-water circulation system has the largest energy conservation potential. • Considering the co-benefits will facilitate the technology promotions • Discount rates have the largest impacts on the technologies’ cost-effectiveness.

Parity non-conservation in atoms

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Barkov, L.M.

1982-01-01

The parity non-conservation discovered in particle physics in 1959 has consequences on the behaviour of atoms illuminated by light of circular polarization. The theoretical treatments of this topic and recent experimental test of detecting the effects of parity non-conservation on atomic physics are listed, reviewed and illustrated. The main experimental results and limits are summarized. Proposed future experiments are discussed. (D.Gy.)

Exploration can cause falling non-renewable resource prices

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Boyce, John R.

2003-01-01

This note shows that when marginal exploration costs are increasing in the rate of exploration that it is possible to observe non-renewable resource prices falling over a portion of the extraction profile. Thus, while the model of Pindyck (J. Polit. Econ. 86 (1978) 841) was based on an incorrect specification of the aggregate extraction cost function, its general conclusion that exploration can cause falling non-renewable resource prices is upheld. This result is in contrast to Mendelsohn and Swierzbinski (Int. Econ. Rev. 30 (1989) 175), who assumed that marginal extraction costs were constant

China's experiment on the differential electricity pricing policy and the struggle for energy conservation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chen Jinjin

2011-01-01

Differential electricity pricing was promulgated by China's central government to guide the development of high energy-consuming industries, which are significant for energy conservation. This paper examines the twists and turns of the policy implementation at the provincial level, and seeks to elucidate the difficulties in its implementation. Local governments, concerned that following the central directives would hurt local interests, have tried to deviate from the central orders while the central revises the policy from time to time to ensure local compliance. Three difficulties are analyzed: (1) the current relations between the central and local energy regulatory institutions make these local institutions difficult to perform their duties, and affect incentives for local governments to respond to central directives; (2) financial reform puts a great burden on local governments to raise revenues to cover expenditures, making local governments focus mainly on economic development rather than serving merely as political agents of the central government; (3) the aggressive attitude of local governments in pursuing GDP growth is not necessarily driven by the central government, but by pressure from competition among localities and the need to win local support. Solving these difficulties is important for making national energy conservation polices effective and efficient. - Highlights: → Adopt the differential electricity pricing policy to achieve energy conservation. → The implementation of the differential electricity pricing policy is far from smooth. → Current relations between the central and local energy regulatory institutions. → Financial burden on local governments. → Pressure from competition among localities and the need to win local support.

18 CFR 2.17 - Price discrimination and anticompetitive effect (price squeeze issue).

Science.gov (United States)

2010-04-01

... INTERPRETATIONS Statements of General Policy and Interpretations Under the Federal Power Act § 2.17 Price... 18 Conservation of Power and Water Resources 1 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Price discrimination and anticompetitive effect (price squeeze issue). 2.17 Section 2.17 Conservation of Power and Water...

Retail Price Model

Science.gov (United States)

The Retail Price Model is a tool to estimate the average retail electricity prices - under both competitive and regulated market structures - using power sector projections and assumptions from the Energy Information Administration.

Price-structure of electricity and district-heating. A background study for energy conservation programme

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1994-01-01

The present report deals with the pricing and price-structure of electricity and district-heating with their effects on energy saving. It constitutes part of the groundwork for the new Government Energy Conservation Programme. The report describes principles for the pricing of electricity and district-heating in Finland, and gives some examples of tariffs in foreign countries, which are interesting from the point of view of energy saving. Different utilities apply quite similar pricing principles but there are big differences in price levels between the utilities. The difference in consumer prices can be almost 100 % in the case of electricity and over 150 % as concerns district-heating. The change in retail prices in the last ten years has not had a big general impact on the consumption of electricity or on energy saving. On the other hand, when the price increases of individual utilities are studied, the impact on energy saving at least in the short term can be seen. It seems that an increase of the fixed charges in relation to energy rates has been as a general trend after 1990. To promote energy saving the changing energy rates should be given special emphasis in determining electricity and district-heating tariffs. The opening of the electricity market means that the electricity suppliers face a new situation also when pricing their products. Customers and their expectations will play an increasingly role. (orig.)

Mass and energy-capital conservation equations to study the price evolution of non-renewable energy resources. Part II-Extension to resources sold to the market

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gori, F.

2006-01-01

The time evolution of the price of resources sold to the market and of the price difference, between sold and extracted resources, is investigated in case of no accumulation of the resources; i.e. when the resources are extracted and sold to the market at the same mass flow rate. The price evolution of sold resources varies with time according to the relation between the price increase factor, PIF, of sold and extracted resources. The price evolutions of sold resources and price difference are investigated according to the relation between extraction rate and interest rate of extracted and sold resources. The price of sold resources and the price difference increase with time if the PIF of sold resources is greater than the PIF of extracted resources and the initial price is greater than the critical price of sold resources, which depends on the initial price of extracted resources and the interest rate of non-extracted and extracted resources. The price of sold resources and the price difference decrease with time if the PIF of sold resources is greater than the PIF of extracted resources and the initial price is smaller than the critical price of sold resources. The other cases are discussed extensively in the paper. (author)

Non-Life Insurance Pricing: Multi Agents Model

OpenAIRE

Amir H. Darooneh

2004-01-01

We use the maximum entropy principle for pricing the non-life insurance and recover the B\\"{u}hlmann results for the economic premium principle. The concept of economic equilibrium is revised in this respect.

Non-price competition in the regional high-rise construction market

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ganebnykh Elena

2018-01-01

Full Text Available The article analyzes the market of high-rise residential construction in the city of Kirov (Russia. A minimal significance of price factors has been revealed in the process of the market analysis. This suggests that a lower price does not guarantee an increase in consumer demand. Thus, factors of non-price competition are of great importance in the market in question. The expert survey has identified the factors of non-price competition which influence consumer perceptions. A perceptual map has been constructed on the basis of the identified factors by means of the factor analysis to determine the positioning of each high-rise building relative to the consumer requirements. None of the high-rise residential buildings in the market in question meets the consumers’ expectations of an “ideal facility”.

Non-price competition in the regional high-rise construction market

Science.gov (United States)

Ganebnykh, Elena; Burtseva, Tatyana; Gurova, Ekaterina; Polyakova, Irina

2018-03-01

The article analyzes the market of high-rise residential construction in the city of Kirov (Russia). A minimal significance of price factors has been revealed in the process of the market analysis. This suggests that a lower price does not guarantee an increase in consumer demand. Thus, factors of non-price competition are of great importance in the market in question. The expert survey has identified the factors of non-price competition which influence consumer perceptions. A perceptual map has been constructed on the basis of the identified factors by means of the factor analysis to determine the positioning of each high-rise building relative to the consumer requirements. None of the high-rise residential buildings in the market in question meets the consumers' expectations of an "ideal facility".

The case for conserving oil resources: the fundamentals of supply and demand

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Reynolds, D.B.

2000-01-01

This article summarises the evidence for an oil price shock and argues that oil producers, both OPEC and non-OPEC, need to cut back oil production more, in order to conserve oil for the future and to avert sudden extreme movements in oil prices in the next five-to-ten years. Four physical fundamentals determine long-run changes in oil prices: supply, demand, technology and substitutes. We show that supply, technology and substitutes are limited and demand is growing strongly. As demand pushes against supply, prices will rise rapidly. It would be better to conserve oil now, in order to have a smoother transition to higher-priced oil in the future. In addition, oil is such a valuable resource for the worlds economies in general, that we should conserve it for future generations. The world, in its haste for economic growth, should support OPEC conservation efforts. (author)

Relative Stabilities of Conserved and Non-Conserved Structures in the OB-Fold Superfamily

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Andrei T. Alexandrescu

2009-05-01

Full Text Available The OB-fold is a diverse structure superfamily based on a β-barrel motif that is often supplemented with additional non-conserved secondary structures. Previous deletion mutagenesis and NMR hydrogen exchange studies of three OB-fold proteins showed that the structural stabilities of sites within the conserved β-barrels were larger than sites in non-conserved segments. In this work we examined a database of 80 representative domain structures currently classified as OB-folds, to establish the basis of this effect. Residue-specific values were obtained for the number of Cα-Cα distance contacts, sequence hydrophobicities, crystallographic B-factors, and theoretical B-factors calculated from a Gaussian Network Model. All four parameters point to a larger average flexibility for the non-conserved structures compared to the conserved β-barrels. The theoretical B-factors and contact densities show the highest sensitivity.Our results suggest a model of protein structure evolution in which novel structural features develop at the periphery of conserved motifs. Core residues are more resistant to structural changes during evolution since their substitution would disrupt a larger number of interactions. Similar factors are likely to account for the differences in stability to unfolding between conserved and non-conserved structures.

Energy return on (energy) invested (EROI), oil prices, and energy transitions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Heun, Matthew Kuperus; de Wit, Martin

2012-01-01

Very little work has been done so far to model, test, and understand the relationship between oil prices and EROI over time. This paper investigates whether a declining EROI is associated with an increasing oil price and speculates on the implications of these results on oil policy. A model of the relationship between EROI and oil market prices was developed using basic economic and physical assumptions and non-linear least-squares regression models to correlate oil production price with EROI using available data from 1954–1996. The model accurately reflects historical oil prices (1954–1996), and it correlates well with historical oil prices (1997–2010) if a linear extrapolation of EROI decline is assumed. As EROI declines below 10, highly non-linear oil price movements are observed. Increasing physical oil scarcity is already providing market signals that would stimulate a transition away from oil toward alternative energy sources. But, price signals of physical oil scarcity are not sufficient to guarantee smooth transitions to alternative fuel sources, especially when there is insufficient oil extraction technology development, a declining mark-up ratio, a non-linear EROI–cost of production relationship, and a non-linear EROI–price relationship. - Highlights: ► A model of the relationship between EROI and oil prices has been developed. ► As EROI declines below 10, highly non-linear oil price movements are expected. ► Physical oil scarcity provides market signals for a transition to alternatives. ► Scarcity price signals are insufficient for smooth transitions to alternatives.

Using non-time-series to determine supply elasticity: how far do prices change the Hubbert curve?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Reynolds, D.B.

2002-01-01

An important concern of OPEC's work is to be able to understand how much supply of oil exists in different countries, in order to help better conserve oil. This paper extends M. King Hubbert's oil production and discovery forecasting model (Hubbert, 1962), using a non-time-series cumulative discovery and production quadratic Hubbert curve and structural shift variables to model technology and regulation changes. The model can be used to determine better world oil supplies. Price is tested, to see how powerful it is for increasing or decreasing oil supply. Using a trend of cumulative production, instead of time, will help to better fix the supply elasticity with respect to price, which is shown to be very inelastic. An interesting question is whether cumulative discovery or production constitutes an I(2) variable. This paper explains that they are not I(2) variables. (Author)

Setting Offer Prices by Housing Developers - Selected Issues in the Light of Literature Review

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Dittmann Iwona

2015-02-01

Full Text Available This paper deals with selected theoretical issues pertaining to the setting of asking prices by housing developers. Determinants of the buyer’s and seller’s reservation prices have been identified. The advantages and disadvantages, in terms of behavioral economics, of the pricing strategies practiced by housing developers have been indicated. The strategy based on fixing an asking price roughly equal to the estimated market value of the property was compared with the strategy based on offering an inflated asking price (with the assumption of price negotiations. A second comparison concerned the strategy of price disclosure compared with the strategy of price non-disclosure.

Pricing and hedging in incomplete financial markets

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Wurth, A.M.

2009-01-01

In the practical part, Chapter 4 considers numerical methods for indifference pricing in a stochastic volatility model. In Chapter 5, a feasible procedure is developed for calculating the CVaR price in unit-linked insurance products under an additional assumption. This assumption is relaxed in

Conservation and non-conservation in general relativity

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bondi, H.

1990-01-01

The difficulties of conservation laws in general relativity are discussed, with special reference to the non-tangible nature of gravitational energy and its transformation into tangible forms of energy. Inductive transfer of energy is marked out as wholly distinct from wave transfer. Slow (adiabatic) changes are utilized to make clear, in the axi-symmetric case, that the mass of an isolated body is conserved irrespective of any local changes (e.g. of shape) and that in inductive transfer the movement of energy between two bodies can readily be traced by the changes in their masses. (author)

The long-run price sensitivity dynamics of industrial and residential electricity demand: The impact of deregulating electricity prices

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Adom, Philip Kofi

2017-01-01

This study examines the demand-side of Ghana's electricity sector. We test two important related hypotheses: (1) deregulation of electricity price does not promote energy conservation, and (2) demand-price relationship is not an inverted U-shaped. The Stock and Watson dynamic OLS is used to address the so-called second-order bias. The result showed that, deregulation of electricity price in Ghana has induced behaviours that are more consistent with energy conservation improvements. The demand-price relationship is an inverted U, which suggests that there is a price range that end-users can tolerate further price rise and still increase their consumption of electricity. However, the degree of price tolerability is higher for residential consumers than industrial consumers. The simulation results showed that, further economic growth is likely to compromise energy conservation but more in the industrial sector than the residential sector. On the other hand, future crude oil price is likely to deteriorate energy conservation in the initial years after 2016, but this trend is likely to reverse after the year 2020. Pricing mechanisms are potent to induce energy conservation but inadequate. The results suggest that they should be complemented with other stringent policies such as a mandatory energy reduction policy, investment in renewables, and personalization of energy efficiency programs. - Highlights: • Studies the demand-side of the electricity sector • Deregulating electricity price promotes energy conservation • Demand-price relationship is an inverted U-shaped • Pricing policies should be combined with other energy mandatory reduction policies

The composite barrel of retail prices and its relationship to crude oil prices

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Balabanoff, S.

1993-01-01

This paper challenges assumptions about the relationship between refinery gate prices, retail prices paid by consumers and crude oil prices. The analysis presented here considers their relationship within the context of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries' (OPEC's) composite barrel statistics, which includes taxes and other government policy effects on prices. Speed of adjustment and retail price response to taxes are analysed with respect to crude import prices. OPEC's composite barrel is explained and evaluated. Test results are summarized. (UK)

Oil prices: The role of refinery utilization, futures markets and non-linearities

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kaufmann, Robert K.; Mann, Michael; Dees, Stephane; Gasteuil, Audrey

2008-01-01

We test the hypothesis that real oil prices are determined in part by refinery capacity, non-linearities in supply conditions, and/or expectations and that observed changes in these variables can account for the rise in prices between 2004 and 2006. Results indicate that the refining sector plays an important role in the recent price increase, but not in the way described by many analysts. The relationship is negative such that higher refinery utilization rates reduce crude oil prices. This effect is associated with shifts in the production of heavy and light grades of crude oil and price spreads between them. Non-linear relationships between OPEC capacity and oil prices as well as conditions on the futures markets also account for changes in real oil prices. Together, these factors allow the model to generate a one-step ahead out-of-sample forecast that performs as well as forecasts implied by far-month contracts on the New York Mercantile Exchange and is able to account for much of the $27 rise in crude oil prices between 2004 and 2006. (author)

Non-price competition in NHS secondary care contracting: empirical results.

Science.gov (United States)

Gray, Keith; Bailey, Mark F

2008-01-01

The purpose of this paper is, for English acute NHS hospitals, to investigate how they operate their governance systems in the area of secondary care contracting and identify the key determinants of relationship building within the contacting/commissioning of secondary care focusing upon non-price competitive behaviour. A survey instrument was designed and mailed to a sample of all acute NHS hospitals in England of whom 35 per cent responded. This survey was then analysed using logit techniques. The analysis suggests that: those NHS Trusts offering volume discounts, non-price competitive incentives or having a strong belief in performance being by "payment by results" criteria are significantly more likely to offer augmented services to secondary care purchasers over and above contractual minima; those NHS Trusts strongly believing in the importance of non-price factors (such as contract augmentation or quality) in the contracting process are more likely to offer customisation of generic services; and those NHS Trusts using cost-sharing agreements to realign contracts when negotiating contracts or who strongly believe in the importance of service augmentation in strengthening relationships, or that increased hospital efficiency is the most important aspect of recent NHS reform are more likely to utilise default measures to help realign contracts. This paper fills a gap in the area of non-price competition in English NHS acute secondary care contracting.

Nonlinear Pricing in Energy and Environmental Markets

Science.gov (United States)

Ito, Koichiro

This dissertation consists of three empirical studies on nonlinear pricing in energy and environmental markets. The first investigates how consumers respond to multi-tier nonlinear price schedules for residential electricity. Chapter 2 asks a similar research question for residential water pricing. Finally, I examine the effect of nonlinear financial rewards for energy conservation by applying a regression discontinuity design to a large-scale electricity rebate program that was implemented in California. Economic theory generally assumes that consumers respond to marginal prices when making economic decisions, but this assumption may not hold for complex price schedules. The chapter "Do Consumers Respond to Marginal or Average Price? Evidence from Nonlinear Electricity Pricing" provides empirical evidence that consumers respond to average price rather than marginal price when faced with nonlinear electricity price schedules. Nonlinear price schedules, such as progressive income tax rates and multi-tier electricity prices, complicate economic decisions by creating multiple marginal prices for the same good. Evidence from laboratory experiments suggests that consumers facing such price schedules may respond to average price as a heuristic. I empirically test this prediction using field data by exploiting price variation across a spatial discontinuity in electric utility service areas. The territory border of two electric utilities lies within several city boundaries in southern California. As a result, nearly identical households experience substantially different nonlinear electricity price schedules. Using monthly household-level panel data from 1999 to 2008, I find strong evidence that consumers respond to average price rather than marginal or expected marginal price. I show that even though this sub-optimizing behavior has a minimal impact on individual welfare, it can critically alter the policy implications of nonlinear pricing. The second chapter " How Do

Do non-monetary prices target the poor? Evidence from a field experiment in India

OpenAIRE

Hoffmann, Bridget

2016-01-01

This paper uses willingness to pay (WTP) data from a field experiment in Hyderabad, India in 2013 to determine whether non-monetary prices better target health products to the poor than monetary prices. Monetary WTP is increasing in income and non-monetary WTP is weakly decreasing in income. Household fixed effects in a pooled sample of monetary WTP and non-monetary WTP are used to compare the correlation of income and WTP across price types. It is found that non-monetary WTP falls relative t...

Price variability and marketing method in non-ferrous metals: Slade's analysis revisited

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Gilbert, C.L.; Ferretti, F.

2002-01-01

We examine the impact of the pricing regime on price variability with reference to the non-ferrous metals industry. Theoretical arguments are ambiguous, but suggest that the extent of monopoly power is more important than the pricing regime as a determinant of variability. Slade (Quart. J. Econ. 106

Non-Price Competition in the Port Sector: A Case Study of Ports in Turkey

OpenAIRE

Soner Esmer; Hong-Oanh Nguyen, Ph.D.; Yapa Mahinda Bandara, Ph.D.; Kazim Yeni, Ph.D.

2016-01-01

Although the port sector has been facing increasing competition, there is limited research on how ports compete using non-price competition strategies. There are a few studies on non-price competition in the port sector. However they mainly focus on the marketing aspect. This paper seeks to fill this gap in the literature, especially from a combined marketing-economic perspective. Especially the paper's main objective is to identify the determinants of non-price competition in the port sector...

IMO and stakeholders looking for improvements: Pricing system under scrutiny

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Anon

2002-01-01

Changing the way of how Ontario's electric market clearing price is established has been announced by the Independent Market Operator, in response to excessive price fluctuations following deregulation, and in spite of the considerable concern about how any change to the pricing system might affect investor confidence. To tackle the issue, an internal team was formed, with input to this team through the IMO's Marker Operations Standing Committee. The following pricing issues are considered to be in need of attention: (1) the discrepancy between real-time prices and published pre-dispatch prices; (2) the difference between prices paid for imported power and domestic power during times of shortage; (3) the inclusion of various factors, such as the additional cost of imported power in non-competitive parts of energy bills known as 'uplift charges'; (4) the failure of the market clearing price to reflect the value of power; (5) the use of non-market procedures that have an effect on price; and (6) adjustments to the offer stack designed to reduce volatility during ramp-up periods. The IMO emphasized its keen awareness of how much investor confidence is predicated on the assumption that market conditions alone will determine prices. Accordingly, its actions are guided strictly by the desire to support reliability and are not intended to be seen as intervening in the competitive market

Non-Price Competition in the Port Sector: A Case Study of Ports in Turkey

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Soner Esmer

2016-03-01

Full Text Available Although the port sector has been facing increasing competition, there is limited research on how ports compete using non-price competition strategies. There are a few studies on non-price competition in the port sector. However they mainly focus on the marketing aspect. This paper seeks to fill this gap in the literature, especially from a combined marketing-economic perspective. Especially the paper's main objective is to identify the determinants of non-price competition in the port sector and evaluate their effect on various aspects of non-price competition. We start with a general conceptual framework to explain how competition in the sector can be affected by various factors and then propose an analytical framework on non-price competition. The analytical model is then used to support the design of a survey questionnaire. Next, hypothesis tests are conducted using exploratory factor analysis (EFA and structural equation modeling (SEM and data collected from a survey of Turkish ports. Based on the analysis results, the implications for port management and future research are also discussed.

Bank stress testing under different balance sheet assumptions

OpenAIRE

Busch, Ramona; Drescher, Christian; Memmel, Christoph

2017-01-01

Using unique supervisory survey data on the impact of a hypothetical interest rate shock on German banks, we analyse price and quantity effects on banks' net interest margin components under different balance sheet assumptions. In the first year, the cross-sectional variation of banks' simulated price effect is nearly eight times as large as the one of the simulated quantity effect. After five years, however, the importance of both effects converges. Large banks adjust their balance sheets mo...

Price competition between an expert and a non-expert

OpenAIRE

Bouckaert, J.M.C.; Degryse, H.A.

1998-01-01

This paper characterizes price competition between an expert and a non-expert. In contrast with the expert, the non-expert’s repair technology is not always successful. Consumers visit the expert after experiencing an unsuccessful match at the non-expert. This re-entry affects the behaviour of both sellers. For low enough probability of successful repair at the non-expert, all consumers first visit the non-expert, and a ‘timid-pricing’ equilibrium results. If the non-expert’s repair technolog...

High oil prices: A non-OPEC capacity game

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Osmundsen, Petter; Asche, Frank; Misund, Baard; Mohn, Klaus

2005-08-01

The current high oil price is partly due to low investments in the oil industry the last decade. According to economic theory, exploration and development of new oil and gas fields should respond positively to increasing petroleum prices. But since the late 1990s, financial analysts have focused strongly on short-term accounting return measures, like RoACE, for benchmarking and valuation of international oil and gas companies. Consequently, the demand for strict capital discipline among oil and gas companies may have reduced their willingness to invest for future reserves and production growth. Thus, we have experienced an unusual combination of high oil prices and low investment levels in exploration and development. In many ways, the oil companies' focus on RoACE, at the expense of reserve replacement, resembles an implicit co-ordination on low capacity among non-OPEC petroleum producers. This is a partial explanation of the current high oil prices. By examining actual parameters used by the financial markets in pricing of oil companies, we address the issue of whether the low investment outcome could represent a long-term equilibrium. This is hardly likely, as oil companies are made aware that stronger emphasis is put on reserve replacement. (Author)

Perceived price sensitivity by ethnicity and smoking frequency among California Hispanic and non-Hispanic white smokers.

Science.gov (United States)

Myers, Mark G; Edland, Steven D; Hofstetter, C Richard; Al-Delaimy, Wael K

2013-06-01

Little is currently known about price sensitivity across ethnic groups as well as for non-daily smokers. To address this issue, this study compared perceived price sensitivity across smoking status (daily and non-daily) and within ethnicity (Hispanic and non-Hispanic White) in a recent representative population survey of California smokers. This study employed data from the 2008 California Tobacco Survey (CTS), a large population-based random-digit-dialed telephone survey. Participants were 1,777 non-Hispanic White and 450 Hispanic respondents who had smoked at least 100 cigarettes and currently smoked daily or on some days. Differences in perceived price sensitivity were found by ethnicity when controlling for age, gender, and cigarette consumption. Comparisons across ethnic groups indicated that Hispanic smokers, in general, have more price-sensitive perceptions than non-Hispanic White smokers. However, daily versus non-daily status had no effect on price sensitivity when controlling for cigarette quantity. These findings indicate that pricing increases may be differentially influential for Hispanic compared with non-Hispanic White smokers across smoking status categories.

Do Canadian electricity prices reflect costs?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jaccard, M.

1993-01-01

In an article by Cairns and Heyes (1993), it is argued that electricity pricing in Canada diverges from cost due to inter-class rate design that results in cross-subsidies, subsidized cost of capital, intra-class rate design that lacks time-of-use pricing, and failure to collect differential rent. Some problems with the key components of the initial assumption that prices diverge from cost are examined. The premise that inter-class rate design results in cross-subsidies may be correct, but is difficult to test since unregulated crown utilities are not required to make the necessary information public. Cairns and Heyes are on firmer ground in their assertion that provincial government backing of utility debts leads to lower costs of capital than would otherwise occur. Quebec and British Columbia governments have recently undertaken revenue collection initiatives justified under the rationale of addressing this situation. However, there are problems with the assumption that lack of time-of-use pricing indicates cost/price divergence, since such pricing is especially relevant in capacity-critical systems. Most hydroelectric systems are energy-critical and time-of-use differentials are not appropriate. Finally, recent evidence suggests reassessing the differential rent assumptions of the 1980s. The economic rents estimated in that period may be more accurately described as windfall rents existing in the short term while markets adjust to erratic fuel prices and cost changes in nuclear and hydro energy. There may be good economic efficiency arguments against short-term rent collection strategies involving erratic price adjustments. 1 ref

Option Pricing with Stochastic Volatility and Jump Diffusion Processes

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Radu Lupu

2006-03-01

Full Text Available Option pricing by the use of Black Scholes Merton (BSM model is based on the assumption that asset prices have a lognormal distribution. In spite of the use of these models on a large scale, both by practioners and academics, the assumption of lognormality is rejected by the history of returns. The objective of this article is to present the methods that developed after the Black Scholes Merton environment and deals with the option pricing model adjustment to the empirical properties of asset returns. The main models that appeared after BSM allowed for special changes of the returns that materialized in jump-diffusion and stochastic volatility processes. The article presents the foundations of risk neutral options evaluation and the empirical evidence that fed the amendment of the lognormal assumption in the first part and shows the evaluation procedure under the assumption of stock prices following the jump-diffusion process and the stochastic volatility process.

The case for Ofsmoke: the potential for price cap regulation of tobacco to raise £500 million per year in the UK.

Science.gov (United States)

Branston, J Robert; Gilmore, Anna B

2014-01-01

A system of price-cap regulation has previously been suggested to address the market failure inherent to the tobacco industry. This would benefit public health directly (eg, by making it extremely difficult for the industry to sell cut-price cigarettes, or use price as a marketing strategy) and indirectly (eg, by reducing the available money the industry has for spending on marketing and lobbying). This paper explores the feasibility of applying such a scheme in the UK. The impact of price-capping is modelled using optimistic and conservative scenarios, each with different assumptions, and using 2009 and 2010 profit data for the major companies selling tobacco in the UK. The models are used to calculate by how much would profit be reduced through the imposition of price caps, and thus, how much revenue could be raised in additional taxes, assuming the end price the consumer pays does not change. Tobacco companies enjoy massive profit margins, up to 67%, in the UK. The optimistic scenario suggests a potential increase in UK tobacco tax revenue of £585.7 million in 2010 (£548.4 million in 2009), while the conservative model suggests an increase in revenue of £433.6 million in 2010 (£399.2 million in 2009). This would be approximately enough to fund, twice over, UK-wide antitobacco smuggling measures, and smoking cessation services in England, including the associated pharmacotherapies, to help people stop smoking. Applying a system of price-cap regulation in the UK would raise around £500 million per annum (US$750 million). This is likely to be an underestimate because of cautious assumptions used in the model. These significant financial benefits, in addition to the public health benefits that would be generated, suggest this is a policy that should be given serious consideration.

THE CASE FOR OFSMOKE: THE POTENTIAL FOR PRICE CAP REGULATION OF TOBACCO TO RAISE £500M PER YEAR IN THE UK

Science.gov (United States)

Robert Branston, J.; Gilmore, Anna B.

2013-01-01

Objective A system of price-cap regulation has previously been suggested to address the market failure inherent to the tobacco industry. This would benefit public health directly (for example, by making it extremely difficult for the industry to sell cut price cigarettes or use price as a marketing strategy) and indirectly (for example, by reducing the money industry has available to spend on marketing and lobbying). This paper explores the feasibility of applying such a scheme in the UK. Methods The impact of price-capping is modelled using optimistic and conservative scenarios, each with different assumptions, and using 2009 and 2010 profit data for the major companies selling tobacco in the UK. The models are used to calculate by how much profit would be reduced through the imposition of price caps, and thus how much revenue could be raised in additional taxes, assuming the end price the consumer pays does not change. Results Tobacco companies enjoy massive profit margins, up to 67%, in the UK. The optimistic scenario suggests a potential increase in UK tobacco tax revenue of £585.7m in 2010 (£548.4m in 2009), while the conservative model suggests an increase in revenue of £433.6m in 2010 (£399.2m in 2009). This would be approximately enough to fund, twice over, UK wide anti-tobacco smuggling measures and smoking cessation services in England including the associated pharmacotherapies. Conclusions Applying a system of price cap regulation in the UK would raise around £500m per annum (US$750m). This is likely to be an under-estimate because of cautious assumptions used in the model. These significant financial benefits, in addition to the public health benefits that would be generated, suggest this is a policy that should be given serious consideration. PMID:23322310

Organic vs. Non-Organic Food Products: Credence and Price Competition

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yi Wang

2017-04-01

Full Text Available We analyze the organic and non-organic production choices of two firms by considering customers’ trust in organic food products. In the context of customers’ possible willingness to pay a premium price and their mistrust in organic food products, two firms first make choices on offering organic and non-organic food products. If offering organic products, a firm can further invest in the credence system to increase customers’ trust in their organic products. At the final stage, two firms determine prices. We provide serval insights. First, we characterize the market conditions in which only one firm, both firms or neither firm will choose to offer organic food products. We find that the higher the production costs or credence investment costs for organic food products are, the more likely firms are to choose to produce non-organic food products. Second, if it is expensive enough to invest in organic credence, offering organic food products may still be uncompetitive, even if organic production cost appears to have no disadvantage compared to non-organic food products. Third, we highlight how the prices of organic food products in equilibrium are affected by market parameters. We show that when only one firm offers organic food products, this firm tends to offer a relatively low price if organic credence investment is expensive. Fourth, we highlight how one firm’s credence investment decision in equilibrium can be affected by the product type choice of the other firm. We find that the investment in organic credence is lower when both firms offer organic food products compared with the case when only one firm offers organic food products.

A Threshold Cointegration Analysis of Asymmetric Adjustment of OPEC and non-OPEC Monthly Crude Oil Prices

OpenAIRE

Ghassan, Hassan B.; Banerjee, Prashanta K.

2013-01-01

The purpose of this paper is to analyze the dynamics of crude oil prices of OPEC and non-OPEC countries using threshold cointegration. To capture the long run asymmetric price transmission mechanism, we develop an error correction model within a threshold cointegration and CGARCH errors framework. The empirical contribution of our paper specifies the cointegrating relation between OPEC price and non-OPEC prices and estimates how and to what extent the respective prices adjust to eliminate dis...

Constraints of a parity-conserving/time-reversal-non-conserving interaction

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Oers, Willem T.H. van

2002-01-01

Time-Reversal-Invariance non-conservation has for the first time been unequivocally demonstrated in a direct measurement at CPLEAR. One then can ask the question: What about tests of time-reversal-invariance in systems other than the kaon system? Tests of time-reversal-invariance can be distinguished as belonging to two classes: the first one deals with time-reversal-invariance-non-conserving (T-odd)/parity violating (P-odd) interactions, while the second one deals with T-odd/P-even interactions (assuming CPT conservation this implies C-conjugation non-conservation). Limits on a T-odd/P-odd interaction follow from measurements of the electric dipole moment of the neutron ( -26 e.cm [95% C.L.]). It provides a limit on a T-odd/P-odd pion-nucleon coupling constant which is less than 10 -4 times the weak interaction strength. Experimental limits on a T-odd/P-even interaction are much less stringent. Following the standard approach of describing the nucleon-nucleon interaction in terms of meson exchanges, it can be shown that only charged ρ-meson exchange and A 1 -meson exchange can lead to a T-odd/P-even interaction. The better constraints stem from measurements of the electric dipole moment of the neutron and from measurements of charge-symmetry breaking in neutron-proton elastic scattering. The latter experiments were executed at TRIUMF (497 and 347 MeV) and at IUCF (183 MeV). All other experiments, like detailed balance experiments, polarization - analyzing power difference determinations, and five-fold correlation experiments with polarized incident nucleons and aligned nuclear targets, have been shown to be at least an order to magnitude less sensitive. Is there room for further experimentation?

Factors Influencing Pricing Decision: Evidence from Non-Financial Firms in Nigeria

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Luqman Olawale

2017-02-01

Full Text Available This study examines the significant factors influencing pricing decision in Nigeria. The study is based on the appraisal of the factors that influence pricing decision using 100 non-financial companies listed on the Nigeria Stock Exchange (NSE in 2013. The cross sectional data was obtained from annual reports of the sampled firms which were analyzed based on OrdinaryRegression model. The results revealed that cost of sales has an insignificant positive effect on pricing policy, while company’s objective and consumer perception has significant positive relationship on pricing policy. On the external determinants, market demand and availability of close substitute has a significant negative effect on pricing policy while macroeconomic trend and market segment has insignificant negative effect on pricing policy. This study therefore suggests among others that, effort should be made on reducing cost of production in order to maximize profit.

ANALYSIS OF EXPECTED PRICE DYNAMICS BETWEEN FLUID MILK FUTURES CONTRACTS AND CASH PRICES FOR FLUID MILK

OpenAIRE

T. Randall FORTENBERY; Robert A. CROPP; Hector O. ZAPATA

1997-01-01

The objective of this study is to provide an empirical evaluation of the expected relationship between cash and futures prices for fluid milk. This is done using historic cash prices from 1988 to 1995, and making inferences about how futures prices would have behaved if they had traded during this sample period. Futures prices are simulated over the sample period based on two assumptions about futures market behavior for fluid milk. The first is that the futures market will essentially price ...

Prospects for non-OPEC oil supply

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

O'Dell, S.

1994-01-01

An International Energy Agency forecast is provided of non-OPEC oil production over a 15-year horizon. Reference-case forecasts are derived from Hubbert-type resource models, official industry announcements about such matters as oil discoveries and development projects, and an oil industry consensus. Separate regional profiles are provided for North America, Europe, the former Soviet Union, and the rest of non-OPEC countries (South America, Asia, non-OPEC Middle East). Under a flat-price scenario ($18/bbl), total non-OPEC oil supply rises slightly from 41.4 million bbl/d (MBD) in 1995 to 41.9 MBD in 2010. Under a scenario in which prices rise to $28/bbl, oil supply rises to 47.5 MBD in 2010. The latter results depend on specific assumptions concerning economic growth, energy prices, the geological potential of some areas which are not yet well understood, technological advances, and the nature of political developments. Uncertainties regarding these assumptions are discussed, with reference to reserves, price responsiveness, world oil industry investment, technology, and costs. A major uncertainty is the issue of investment in the OPEC countries, since the rising-price scenario assumes that OPEC invests only reluctantly. If major OPEC producers choose to open their upstream sectors to international oil companies, the situation will change completely. Otherwise, oil markets are expected to continue to behave in the manner of the past 20 years, with highest-cost oil being developed first while cheaper oil remains in the ground. 8 refs., 10 figs., 3 tabs

Truly costly sequential search and oligopolistic pricing

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Janssen, Maarten C W; Moraga-González, José Luis; Wildenbeest, Matthijs R.

We modify the paper of Stahl (1989) [Stahl, D.O., 1989. Oligopolistic pricing with sequential consumer search. American Economic Review 79, 700-12] by relaxing the assumption that consumers obtain the first price quotation for free. When all price quotations are costly to obtain, the unique

Funding conservation through use and potentials for price discrimination among scuba divers at Sipadan, Malaysia.

Science.gov (United States)

Emang, Diana; Lundhede, Thomas Hedemark; Thorsen, Bo Jellesmark

2016-11-01

The protected coral reefs off the coast of Malaysia receive numerous tourists, while also being as fishing grounds. These joint environmental pressures raise the need for additional costly conservation measures. It is natural to consider the potential for expanding the 'user pays' principle, already implemented in the form of various user fees. This study explores the potential for price discrimination among scuba divers at Sipadan in Malaysia. The study applies a choice experiment to estimate scuba divers willingness to pay higher user fees for avoiding decreases of or getting improvements in environmental and recreational aspects of the diving experience. We investigate how sensitivity to fee size and hence willingness to pay vary with suitable selected characteristics of divers. We find potentials for a third degree price discrimination strategy exploiting higher willingness to pay among foreign divers (45%), male divers (16%) and people who has visited Sipadan several times (25%). Thus, revised pricing structures could significantly increase funds for the preservation of Sipadan. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Long Run Dynamic Volatilities between OPEC and non-OPEC Crude Oil Prices

OpenAIRE

Ghassan, Hassan B.; Alhajhoj, Hassan R.

2015-01-01

Understanding the long-run dynamics of OPEC and non-OPEC crude oil prices is important in an era of increased financialization of petroleum markets. Utilizing an ECM within a threshold cointegration and CGARCH errors framework, we provide evidence on the cointegrating relationship and estimate how and to what extent the respective prices adjust to eliminate disequilibrium. Our findings suggest that the adjustment process of OPEC prices to the positive discrepancies is slow which implies that ...

A hybrid modeling approach for option pricing

Science.gov (United States)

Hajizadeh, Ehsan; Seifi, Abbas

2011-11-01

The complexity of option pricing has led many researchers to develop sophisticated models for such purposes. The commonly used Black-Scholes model suffers from a number of limitations. One of these limitations is the assumption that the underlying probability distribution is lognormal and this is so controversial. We propose a couple of hybrid models to reduce these limitations and enhance the ability of option pricing. The key input to option pricing model is volatility. In this paper, we use three popular GARCH type model for estimating volatility. Then, we develop two non-parametric models based on neural networks and neuro-fuzzy networks to price call options for S&P 500 index. We compare the results with those of Black-Scholes model and show that both neural network and neuro-fuzzy network models outperform Black-Scholes model. Furthermore, comparing the neural network and neuro-fuzzy approaches, we observe that for at-the-money options, neural network model performs better and for both in-the-money and an out-of-the money option, neuro-fuzzy model provides better results.

Econometric modelling of conservation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Parker, J.C.; Seal, D.J.

1990-01-01

The issue of energy conservation in general, and conservation in the natural gas markets in particular, has recently had a much lower profile than in the past, when energy prices were significantly higher and energy costs composed a much larger proportion of industrial operating costs than today. The recent downward trend in energy prices has diverted attention away from this issue. In the face of expected significant real price increases, increasing pressure from environmental groups, and directives on the part of regulator authorities, conservation is once again becoming a topic of consideration in the energy industry. From the point of view of gas demand forecasting, conservation has received too little attention. The intentions of this paper are to establish the need for forecasting conservation in the natural gas utility sector, and to construct a model of industrial demand which incorporates conservation and is appropriate for use as a forecasting tool

Endogenous Currency of Price Setting in a Dynamic Open Economy Model

OpenAIRE

Michael B. Devereux; Charles Engel

2001-01-01

Many papers in the recent literature in open economy macroeconomics make different assumptions about the currency in which firms set their export prices when nominal prices must be pre-set. But to date, all of these studies take the currency of price setting as exogenous. This paper sets up a simple two-country general equilibrium model in which exporting firms can choose the currency in which they set prices for sales to foreign markets. We make two alternative assumptions about the structur...

Assumptions for the Annual Energy Outlook 1992

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1992-01-01

This report serves a auxiliary document to the Energy Information Administration (EIA) publication Annual Energy Outlook 1992 (AEO) (DOE/EIA-0383(92)), released in January 1992. The AEO forecasts were developed for five alternative cases and consist of energy supply, consumption, and price projections by major fuel and end-use sector, which are published at a national level of aggregation. The purpose of this report is to present important quantitative assumptions, including world oil prices and macroeconomic growth, underlying the AEO forecasts. The report has been prepared in response to external requests, as well as analyst requirements for background information on the AEO and studies based on the AEO forecasts

A demand/supply and price outlook for electricity in Ontario

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dalton, J.

2004-01-01

This paper examined electricity pricing issues for both the immediate future as well as over the long term. The near term outlook resources for the summer of 2004 were reviewed. Intermediate critical supply and demand issues were projected with consideration given to the return of the Pickering A plant and coal phase out. In the long term, it was considered that pricing and demand would reflect conservation issues and demand side response, as well as the timing of Requests For Proposals (RFPs) and the phase out of coal-fired capacity. The impact of the coal phase-out in Ontario was examined, with particular reference to timing and market structure implications. Potential conservation impacts were presented and projected Ontario supply/demand balances were evaluated. The challenges facing the new market structure include pricing dynamics and a reliance on RFPs. The significance of specifying diversity objectives was also discussed. It was concluded that the Ontario Ministry of Energy should play a role in establishing targets for conservation, renewable energy and the overall supply of electricity. Rigorous analysis is necessary before specifying targets in terms of hydroelectric and nuclear generation as opposed to non-fossil generation. tabs., figs

Non-market pricing for an improved solid waste management ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Non-market pricing for an improved solid waste management system in Arba Minch ... in Arba Minch, a tourist hub and one of the rapidly growing towns in Ethiopia. ... The mean WTP estimated in this survey can serve as a guide for municipal ...

Price Relationships in the Petroleum Market: An Analysis of Crude Oil and Refined Product Prices

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Asche, Frank; Gjoelberg, Ole; Voelker, Teresa

2001-08-01

In this paper the relationships between crude oil and refined product prices are investigated in a multivariate framework. This allows us to test several (partly competing) assumptions of earlier studies. In particular, we find that the crude oil price is weakly exogenous and that the spread is constant in some but not all relationships. Moreover, the multivariate analysis shows that the link between crude oil prices and several refined product prices implies market integration for these refined products. This is an example of supply driven market integration and producers will change the output mix in response to price changes. (author)

Price relationships in the petroleum market. An analysis of crude oil and refined product prices

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Asche, Frank; Gjoelberg, Ole; Volker, Teresa

2003-01-01

In this paper the relationships between crude oil and refined product prices are investigated in a multivariate framework. This allows us to test several (partly competing) assumptions of earlier studies. In particular, we find that the crude oil price is weakly exogenous and that the spread is constant in some but not all relationships. Moreover, the multivariate analysis shows that the link between crude oil prices and several refined product prices implies market integration for these refined products. This is an example of supply driven market integration and producers will change the output mix in response to price changes

Price relationships in the petroleum market: an analysis of crude oil and refined product prices

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Asche, F.; Gjoelberg, O.; Voelker, T.

2003-01-01

In this paper the relationships between crude oil and refined product prices are investigated in a multivariate framework. This allows us to test several (partly competing) assumptions of earlier studies. In particular, we find that the crude oil price is weakly exogenous and that the spread is constant in some but not all relationships. Moreover, the multivariate analysis shows that the link between crude oil prices and several refined product prices implies market integration for these refined products. This is an example of supply driven market integration and producers will change the output mix in response to price changes. (author)

Assumption-versus data-based approaches to summarizing species' ranges.

Science.gov (United States)

Peterson, A Townsend; Navarro-Sigüenza, Adolfo G; Gordillo, Alejandro

2018-06-01

For conservation decision making, species' geographic distributions are mapped using various approaches. Some such efforts have downscaled versions of coarse-resolution extent-of-occurrence maps to fine resolutions for conservation planning. We examined the quality of the extent-of-occurrence maps as range summaries and the utility of refining those maps into fine-resolution distributional hypotheses. Extent-of-occurrence maps tend to be overly simple, omit many known and well-documented populations, and likely frequently include many areas not holding populations. Refinement steps involve typological assumptions about habitat preferences and elevational ranges of species, which can introduce substantial error in estimates of species' true areas of distribution. However, no model-evaluation steps are taken to assess the predictive ability of these models, so model inaccuracies are not noticed. Whereas range summaries derived by these methods may be useful in coarse-grained, global-extent studies, their continued use in on-the-ground conservation applications at fine spatial resolutions is not advisable in light of reliance on assumptions, lack of real spatial resolution, and lack of testing. In contrast, data-driven techniques that integrate primary data on biodiversity occurrence with remotely sensed data that summarize environmental dimensions (i.e., ecological niche modeling or species distribution modeling) offer data-driven solutions based on a minimum of assumptions that can be evaluated and validated quantitatively to offer a well-founded, widely accepted method for summarizing species' distributional patterns for conservation applications. © 2016 Society for Conservation Biology.

Optimal Hedging and Pricing of Equity-Linked Life Insurance Contracts in a Discrete-Time Incomplete Market

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Norman Josephy

2011-01-01

Full Text Available We present a method of optimal hedging and pricing of equity-linked life insurance products in an incomplete discrete-time financial market. A pure endowment life insurance contract with guarantee is used as an example. The financial market incompleteness is caused by the assumption that the underlying risky asset price ratios are distributed in a compact interval, generalizing the assumptions of multinomial incomplete market models. For a range of initial hedging capitals for the embedded financial option, we numerically solve an optimal hedging problem and determine a risk-return profile of each optimal non-self-financing hedging strategy. The fair price of the insurance contract is determined according to the insurer's risk-return preferences. Illustrative numerical results of testing our algorithm on hypothetical insurance contracts are documented. A discussion and a test of a hedging strategy recalibration technique for long-term contracts are presented.

Assumptions for the Annual Energy Outlook 1993

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1993-01-01

This report is an auxiliary document to the Annual Energy Outlook 1993 (AEO) (DOE/EIA-0383(93)). It presents a detailed discussion of the assumptions underlying the forecasts in the AEO. The energy modeling system is an economic equilibrium system, with component demand modules representing end-use energy consumption by major end-use sector. Another set of modules represents petroleum, natural gas, coal, and electricity supply patterns and pricing. A separate module generates annual forecasts of important macroeconomic and industrial output variables. Interactions among these components of energy markets generate projections of prices and quantities for which energy supply equals energy demand. This equilibrium modeling system is referred to as the Intermediate Future Forecasting System (IFFS). The supply models in IFFS for oil, coal, natural gas, and electricity determine supply and price for each fuel depending upon consumption levels, while the demand models determine consumption depending upon end-use price. IFFS solves for market equilibrium for each fuel by balancing supply and demand to produce an energy balance in each forecast year

Non-equilibrium price theories

Science.gov (United States)

Helbing, Dirk; Kern, Daniel

2000-11-01

We propose two theories for the formation of stock prices under the condition that the number of available stocks is fixed. Both theories consider the balance equations for cash and several kinds of stocks. They also take into account interest rates, dividends, and transaction costs. The proposed theories have the advantage that they do not require iterative procedures to determine the price, which would be inefficient for simulations with many agents.

Nonlinear Pricing to Produce Information

OpenAIRE

David J. Braden; Shmuel S. Oren

1994-01-01

We investigate the firm's dynamic nonlinear pricing problem when facing consumers whose tastes vary according to a scalar index. We relax the standard assumption that the firm knows the distribution of this index. In general the firm should determine its marginal price schedule as if it were myopic, and produce information by lowering the price schedule; “bunching” consumers at positive purchase levels should be avoided. As a special case we also consider a market characterized by homogeneous...

Considering system non-linearity in transmission pricing

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Oloomi-Buygi, M.; Salehizadeh, M. Reza

2008-01-01

In this paper a new approach for transmission pricing is presented. The contribution of a contract on power flow of a transmission line is used as extent-of-use criterion for transmission pricing. In order to determine the contribution of each contract on power flow of each transmission line, first the contribution of each contract on each voltage angle is determined, which is called voltage angle decomposition. To this end, DC power flow is used to compute a primary solution for voltage angle decomposition. To consider the impacts of system non-linearity on voltage angle decomposition, a method is presented to determine the share of different terms of sine argument in sine value. Then the primary solution is corrected in different iterations of decoupled Newton-Raphson power flow using the presented sharing method. The presented approach is applied to a 4-bus test system and IEEE 30-bus test system and the results are analyzed. (author)

Beyond excise taxes: a systematic review of literature on non-tax policy approaches to raising tobacco product prices.

Science.gov (United States)

Golden, Shelley D; Smith, Margaret Holt; Feighery, Ellen C; Roeseler, April; Rogers, Todd; Ribisl, Kurt M

2016-07-01

Raising the price of tobacco products is considered one of the most effective ways to reduce tobacco use. In addition to excise taxes, governments are exploring other policies to raise tobacco prices and minimise price dispersion, both within and across price tiers. We conducted a systematic review to determine how these policies are described, recommended and evaluated in the literature. We systematically searched six databases and the California Tobacco Control library for English language studies or reports, indexed on or before 18 December 2013, that included a tobacco keyword (eg, cigarette), policy keyword (eg, legislation) and a price keyword (eg, promotion). We identified 3067 abstracts. Two coders independently reviewed all abstracts and identified 56 studies or reports that explicitly described a public policy likely to impact the retail price of tobacco products through non-tax means. Two coders independently identified tobacco products targeted by policies described, recommendations for implementing policies and empirical assessments of policy impacts. The most prevalent non-tax price policies were price promotion restrictions and minimum price laws. Few studies measured the impact of non-tax policies on average prices, price dispersion or disparities in tobacco consumption, but the literature includes suggestions for crafting policies and preparing for legal challenges or tobacco industry opposition. Price-focused evaluations of well-implemented non-tax price policies are needed to determine whether they can deliver on their promise to raise prices, reduce price dispersion and serve as an important complement to excise taxes. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/

Consistent Estimation of Pricing Kernels from Noisy Price Data

OpenAIRE

Vladislav Kargin

2003-01-01

If pricing kernels are assumed non-negative then the inverse problem of finding the pricing kernel is well-posed. The constrained least squares method provides a consistent estimate of the pricing kernel. When the data are limited, a new method is suggested: relaxed maximization of the relative entropy. This estimator is also consistent. Keywords: $\\epsilon$-entropy, non-parametric estimation, pricing kernel, inverse problems.

Energy prices and the post oil/energy crisis Brazilian inflation: an input-output study

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lara-Resende, M.deM.

1982-01-01

This study is an attempt to understand the implications of the OPEC-induced severalfold increase in the international price of oil for average and sectoral domestic prices in Brazil, a large oil-importing open developing economy. Rather than using a Keynesian model (focusing on the universal characteristics of an economy), the study makes use of an open-price input-output model (capturing the structural characteristics of the Brazilian economy). The first three chapters, descriptive in nature, place in perspective the following three, which detail the model and the empirical results. The main conclusion is that, despite the significant increase observed in the post-crisis period, the relative percentage contribution of primary energy to wholesale inflation in Brazil is still relatively minor. A conservative estimate suggests that, in the years of substantial acceleration (1974 and 1979), approximately 15% of the wholesale inflation was due to energy (basically crude oil and oil derivatives). Though such low estimates are partly due to the limitations and assumptions underlying input-output analysis, it seems that the acceleration of inflation is related to more than cost increases originating in energy prices. It also seems to be related to agricultural and labor prices, as well as to the government's decision to abruptly and inopportunely raise several important product prices.

PRICES IN COMPETITIVE SYSTEM

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

VADUVA MARIA

2017-08-01

Full Text Available Regularities of competitive market determine rules for determining prices and their dynamics. Orientation prices to competition (competitive pricing is the strategy most frequently used in countries with market economies and especially for exports. Moreover, in an economy dominated by market competition it cannot be ignored without certain risks the prices resulting from competition between products bidders. Companies that use this type of strategy seek to maintain a level of prices linked to that charged by other competitors (or exporting producers generally no longer covering production costs or demand, relying on the assumption that the average market price is a reasonable basis of costs. But the way how practical guidance and reporting to the competition in every price strategy, will be determined by the company's market position, by the available power and enjoyed prestige, objectives and prospects of its market share etc. according to these elements, there may be several versions of pricing strategies oriented to competitors.

Price versus Non-price Incentives for Participation in Quality Labeling: The Case of the German Fruit Juice Industry

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Simon Bleich

2013-03-01

Full Text Available Quality assurance and labeling play an important and increasing role in firms’ marketing strategies. In almost all cases, a price incentive has been stressed as the major incentive for firms to participate in such schemes. We argue here that important non-price incentives for participation in quality labeling may exist, too. In German retailing, it can be observed that discount retailers are listing more and more foods with quality labels. Processors may then participate in voluntary quality labeling in order to enter the large and growing market of discount retailers. The price-premium versus the market-entry hypothesis are analyzed theo-retically. We investigate then in an empirical hedonic pricing model for the German fruit juice market and for participation in the quality label of the Deutsche Landwirtschafts-Gesellschaft (DLG which of the two hypotheses is consistent with the data. There is strong support for the market-entry hypothesis

Price elasticity of demand of non-cigarette tobacco products: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Jawad, Mohammed; Lee, John Tayu; Glantz, Stanton; Millett, Christopher

2018-01-23

To systematically review the price elasticity of demand of non-cigarette tobacco products. Medline, Embase, EconLit and the Web of Science without language or time restrictions. Two reviewers screened title and abstracts, then full texts, independently and in duplicate. We based eligibility criteria on study design (interventional or observational), population (individuals or communities without geographic restrictions), intervention (price change) and outcome (change in demand). We abstracted data on study features, outcome measures, statistical approach, and single best own- and cross-price elasticity estimates with respect to cigarettes. We conducted a random effects meta-analysis for estimates of similar product, outcome and country income level. For other studies we reported median elasticities by product and country income level. We analysed 36 studies from 15 countries yielding 125 elasticity estimates. A 10% price increase would reduce demand by: 8.3% for cigars (95% CI 2.9 to 13.8), 6.4% for roll your owns (95% CI 4.3 to 8.4), 5.7% for bidis (95% CI 4.3 to 7.1) and 2.1% for smokeless tobacco (95% CI -0.6 to 4.8). Median price elasticities for all ten products were also negative. Results from few studies that examined cross-price elasticity suggested a positive substitution effect between cigarette and non-cigarette tobacco products. There is sufficient evidence in support of the effectiveness of price increases to reduce consumption of non-cigarette tobacco products as it is for cigarettes. Positive substitutability between cigarette and non-cigarette tobacco products suggest that tax and price increases need to be simultaneous and comparable across all tobacco products. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2018. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.

STOCHASTIC PRICING MODEL FOR THE REAL ESTATE MARKET: FORMATION OF LOG-NORMAL GENERAL POPULATION

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Oleg V. Rusakov

2015-01-01

Full Text Available We construct a stochastic model of real estate pricing. The method of the pricing construction is based on a sequential comparison of the supply prices. We proof that under standard assumptions imposed upon the comparison coefficients there exists an unique non-degenerated limit in distribution and this limit has the lognormal law of distribution. The accordance of empirical distributions of prices to thetheoretically obtained log-normal distribution we verify by numerous statistical data of real estate prices from Saint-Petersburg (Russia. For establishing this accordance we essentially apply the efficient and sensitive test of fit of Kolmogorov-Smirnov. Basing on “The Russian Federal Estimation Standard N2”, we conclude that the most probable price, i.e. mode of distribution, is correctly and uniquely defined under the log-normal approximation. Since the mean value of log-normal distribution exceeds the mode - most probable value, it follows that the prices valued by the mathematical expectation are systematically overstated.

Multi-factor energy price models and exotic derivatives pricing

Science.gov (United States)

Hikspoors, Samuel

The high pace at which many of the world's energy markets have gradually been opened to competition have generated a significant amount of new financial activity. Both academicians and practitioners alike recently started to develop the tools of energy derivatives pricing/hedging as a quantitative topic of its own. The energy contract structures as well as their underlying asset properties set the energy risk management industry apart from its more standard equity and fixed income counterparts. This thesis naturally contributes to these broad market developments in participating to the advances of the mathematical tools aiming at a better theory of energy contingent claim pricing/hedging. We propose many realistic two-factor and three-factor models for spot and forward price processes that generalize some well known and standard modeling assumptions. We develop the associated pricing methodologies and propose stable calibration algorithms that motivate the application of the relevant modeling schemes.

Municipal & Non-Governmental Organization Conservation Lands; LocCons11

Data.gov (United States)

University of Rhode Island Geospatial Extension Program — Non-State Conservation lands are real property permanently protected from future development by fee simple ownership, conservation or other restrictive easements, or...

Imperfect price-reversibility of US gasoline demand: Asymmetric responses to price increases and declines

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gately, D.

1992-01-01

This paper describes a framework for analyzing the imperfect price-reversibility (hysteresis) of oil demand. The oil demand reductions following the oil price increases of the 1970s will not be completely reversed by the price cuts of the 1980s, nor is it necessarily true that these partial demand reversals themselves will be reversed exactly by future price increases. The author decomposes price into three monotonic series: price increases to maximum historic levels, price cuts, and price recoveries (increases below historic highs). He would expect that the response to price cuts would be no greater than to price recoveries, which in turn would be no greater than for increases in maximum historic price. For evidence of imperfect price-reversibility, he tests econometrically the following US data: vehicle miles per driver, the fuel efficiency of the automobile fleet, and gasoline demand per driver. In each case, the econometric results allow him to reject the hypothesis of perfect price-reversibility. The data show smaller response to price cuts than to price increases. This has dramatic implications for projections of gasoline and oil demand, especially under low-price assumptions. 26 refs., 13 figs., 3 tabs

Robust policy choice under Calvo and Rotemberg pricing

OpenAIRE

Sienknecht, Sebastian

2012-01-01

This paper examines the robustness of welfare-based policy choices across the nonlinear Calvo and Rotemberg pricing assumptions. Comparisons between simple interest rate rules turn out to be robust and independent of the price dispersion inherent in the Calvo setting. This robustness is violated if there is a policy alternative that controls for price dispersion.

Optimal ordering and pricing policy for price sensitive stock–dependent demand under progressive payment scheme

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Nita H. Shah

2011-01-01

Full Text Available The terminal condition of inventory level to be zero at the end of the cycle time adopted by Soni and Shah (2008, 2009 is not viable when demand is stock-dependent. To rectify this assumption, we extend their model for (1 an ending – inventory to be non-zero; (2 limited floor space; (3 a profit maximization model; (4 selling price to be a decision variable, and (5 units in inventory deteriorate at a constant rate. The algorithm is developed to search for the optimal decision policy. The working of the proposed model is supported with a numerical example. Sensitivity analysis is carried out to investigate critical parameters.

Comparative Interpretation of Classical and Keynesian Fiscal Policies (Assumptions, Principles and Primary Opinions

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Engin Oner

2015-06-01

Full Text Available Adam Smith being its founder, in the Classical School, which gives prominence to supply and adopts an approach of unbiased finance, the economy is always in a state of full employment equilibrium. In this system of thought, the main philosophy of which is budget balance, that asserts that there is flexibility between prices and wages and regards public debt as an extraordinary instrument, the interference of the state with the economic and social life is frowned upon. In line with the views of the classical thought, the classical fiscal policy is based on three basic assumptions. These are the "Consumer State Assumption", the assumption accepting that "Public Expenditures are Always Ineffectual" and the assumption concerning the "Impartiality of the Taxes and Expenditure Policies Implemented by the State". On the other hand, the Keynesian School founded by John Maynard Keynes, gives prominence to demand, adopts the approach of functional finance, and asserts that cases of underemployment equilibrium and over-employment equilibrium exist in the economy as well as the full employment equilibrium, that problems cannot be solved through the invisible hand, that prices and wages are strict, the interference of the state is essential and at this point fiscal policies have to be utilized effectively.Keynesian fiscal policy depends on three primary assumptions. These are the assumption of "Filter State", the assumption that "public expenditures are sometimes effective and sometimes ineffective or neutral" and the assumption that "the tax, debt and expenditure policies of the state can never be impartial". 

On the structure on non-local conservation laws in the two-dimensional non-linear sigma-model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zamolodchikov, Al.B.

1978-01-01

The non-local conserved charges are supposed to satisfy a special multiplicative law in the space of asymptotic states of the non-linear sigma-model. This supposition leads to factorization equations for two-particle scattering matrix elements and determines to some extent the action of these charges in the asymptotic space. Their conservation turns out to be consistent with the factorized S-matrix of the non-linear sigma-model. It is shown also that the factorized sine-Gordon S-matrix is consistent with a similar family of conservation laws

Ex-vessel Fish Price Database: Disaggregating Prices for Low-Priced Species from Reduction Fisheries

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Travis C. Tai

2017-11-01

Full Text Available Ex-vessel fish prices are essential for comprehensive fisheries management and socioeconomic analyses for fisheries science. In this paper, we reconstructed a global ex-vessel price database with the following areas of improvement: (1 compiling reported prices explicitly listed as “for reduction to fishmeal and fish oil” to estimate prices separately for catches destined for fishmeal and fish oil production, and other non-direct human consumption purposes; (2 including 95% confidence limit estimates for each price estimation; and (3 increasing the number of input data and the number of price estimates to match the reconstructed Sea Around Us catch database. Our primary focus was to address this first area of improvement as ex-vessel prices for catches destined for non-direct human consumption purposes were substantially overestimated, notably in countries with large reduction fisheries. For example in Peru, 2010 landed values were estimated as 3.8 billion real 2010 USD when using separate prices for reduction fisheries, compared with 5.8 billion using previous methods with only one price for all end-products. This update of the price database has significant global and country-specific impacts on fisheries price and landed value trends over time.

Non conventional energy sources and energy conservation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bueno M, F.

1995-01-01

Geographically speaking, Mexico is in an enviable position. Sun, water, biomass and geothermal fields main non conventional energy sources with commercial applications, are presents and in some cases plentiful in national territory. Moreover the coastal tidal power which is in research stage in several countries. Non conventional energy sources are an alternative which allow us to reduce the consumption of hydrocarbons or any other type of primary energetic, are not by oneself choices for the energy conservation, but energy replacements. At the beginning of this year, CONAE created the Direction of Non conventional Energy Sources, which main objective is to promote and impulse programs inclined towards the application of systems based in renewable energy sources. The research centers represent a technological and consultative support for the CONAE. They have an infrastructure developed along several years of continuous work. The non conventional energy sources will be a reality at the same time that their cost be equal or lower than the cost for the traditional generating systems. CONAE (National Commission for Energy Conservation). (Author)

Future prices and market for SO2 allowances

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sanghi, A.; Joseph, A.; Michael, K.; Munro, W.; Wang, J.

1993-01-01

The expected price of SO 2 emission allowances is an important issue in energy and integrated resource planning activities. For example, the expected price of SO 2 allowances in needed in order to evaluate alternative strategies for meeting SO 2 provisions of the Clean Air Act Amendments of 1990. In addition, the expected SO 2 allowance price is important to state public utility regulators who must provide guidance on rate-making issues regarding utility compliance plans which involve allowance trading and direct investment of SO 2 control technologies. Last but not the least, the expected SO 2 allowance price is an important determinant of the future market for natural gas and low sulfur coal. The paper develops estimates of SO 2 allowance prices over time by constructing national supply and demand curves for SO 2 reductions. Both the supply and demand for SO 2 reductions are based on an analysis of the sulfur content of fuels burned in 1990 by utilities throughout the United States; and on assumptions about plant retirements, the rate of new capacity growth, the types of new and replacement plants constructed, the costs of SO 2 reduction measures and legislation by midwest states to maintain the use of high sulfur coal to protect local jobs. The paper shows that SO 2 allowance prices will peak around the year 2000 at about $500 per ton, and will eventually fall to zero by about the year 2020. A sensitivity analysis indicates that the price of SO 2 allowances is relatively insensitive to assumptions regarding the availability of natural gas or energy demand growth. However, SO 2 allowance prices tend to be quite sensitive to assumptions regarding regulations which may force early retirement of existing power plants and possible legislation which may reduce CO 2 emissions

Equity Prices, Productivity Growth, and the 'New Economy'

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Madsen, Jakob Brøchner; Davis, E. Philip

The sharp increase in equity prices over the 1990s was widely attributed to permanently higher productivity growth derived from the New Economy. This paper establishes a rational expectations model of technology innovations and equity prices, which shows that under plausible assumptions...

The Calculation of Weighted Price Elasticity of Tax: Turkey (1998-2013

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Engin YILMAZ

2015-06-01

Full Text Available In this study, the assumption of “the weighted price elasticity of tax is a unit in the developing countries” suggested in the first studies which examine the impacts of the inflation on tax revenues, will be reevaluated for Turkey in the period of 1998-2013. We use Turkish tax and price index data for calculating the weighted price elasticity of tax. Via the method of dynamic ordinary least squares (DOLS, the long run weighted price elasticity of tax system is guessed. The importance of this study is the fact that this is first study intended to the calculation of the weighted price elasticity of tax for Turkey. In this sense, it will be instructive study for the reconsideration of the assumption of “the weighted price elasticity of tax is a unit in the developing countries”.

Statistical field theory of futures commodity prices

Science.gov (United States)

Baaquie, Belal E.; Yu, Miao

2018-02-01

The statistical theory of commodity prices has been formulated by Baaquie (2013). Further empirical studies of single (Baaquie et al., 2015) and multiple commodity prices (Baaquie et al., 2016) have provided strong evidence in support the primary assumptions of the statistical formulation. In this paper, the model for spot prices (Baaquie, 2013) is extended to model futures commodity prices using a statistical field theory of futures commodity prices. The futures prices are modeled as a two dimensional statistical field and a nonlinear Lagrangian is postulated. Empirical studies provide clear evidence in support of the model, with many nontrivial features of the model finding unexpected support from market data.

NON-LINEARITY OF AUDIT PRICES AND REPUTATION IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES: SHIFT TO OR FROM?

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Svitlana Shulha

2016-11-01

Full Text Available The purpose of the paper is to analyse the origins of audit prices non-linearity in developing countries. We assume risk- and industry-sensitiveness of audit firms there due to the low institutional capacity, weak market forces development and questionable both auditors and clients ethical behaviour affecting market sustainability and implying additional challenges on stakeholder confidence. Methodology. We combine economic geography approach and reputation-averse phenomenon to explain endogenous volatility of average audit prices in Ukraine for the period of 2008-2015. Analysis of recent publications partially explains audit pricing non-linearity determinants that have both qualitative (brand and specialization and quantitative (risks, manipulations, bribery nature in developing countries. First, we qualify determinants of audit fees by inherent origin (endogenous, exogenous, stakeholder side (demand, supply, and market structure (concentrated, fragmented. Second, we summarize reputation challenges of audit business in developing countries. Third, we run empirical analysis of average prices in Ukraine for the period of 2008-2015 based on annual Chamber of Auditors of Ukraine reports data. Practical implications. Audit pricing models in developed countries are mainly exogenous and based on the auditor’s risk assessment. Vulnerability of markets and clients’ unethical behaviour makes audit pricing models more endogenous in developing countries. Value/originality. This is the first paper providing a better understanding of audit prices declination in Ukraine as a consequence of dysfunctional audit firms’ behaviour, institutional and market fragility, inherent to developing countries.

Sensitivity Analysis Without Assumptions.

Science.gov (United States)

Ding, Peng; VanderWeele, Tyler J

2016-05-01

Unmeasured confounding may undermine the validity of causal inference with observational studies. Sensitivity analysis provides an attractive way to partially circumvent this issue by assessing the potential influence of unmeasured confounding on causal conclusions. However, previous sensitivity analysis approaches often make strong and untestable assumptions such as having an unmeasured confounder that is binary, or having no interaction between the effects of the exposure and the confounder on the outcome, or having only one unmeasured confounder. Without imposing any assumptions on the unmeasured confounder or confounders, we derive a bounding factor and a sharp inequality such that the sensitivity analysis parameters must satisfy the inequality if an unmeasured confounder is to explain away the observed effect estimate or reduce it to a particular level. Our approach is easy to implement and involves only two sensitivity parameters. Surprisingly, our bounding factor, which makes no simplifying assumptions, is no more conservative than a number of previous sensitivity analysis techniques that do make assumptions. Our new bounding factor implies not only the traditional Cornfield conditions that both the relative risk of the exposure on the confounder and that of the confounder on the outcome must satisfy but also a high threshold that the maximum of these relative risks must satisfy. Furthermore, this new bounding factor can be viewed as a measure of the strength of confounding between the exposure and the outcome induced by a confounder.

Carbon payments and low-cost conservation.

Science.gov (United States)

Crossman, Neville D; Bryan, Brett A; Summers, David M

2011-08-01

A price on carbon is expected to generate demand for carbon offset schemes. This demand could drive investment in tree-based monocultures that provide higher carbon yields than diverse plantings of native tree and shrub species, which sequester less carbon but provide greater variation in vegetation structure and composition. Economic instruments such as species conservation banking, the creation and trading of credits that represent biological-diversity values on private land, could close the financial gap between monocultures and more diverse plantings by providing payments to individuals who plant diverse species in locations that contribute to conservation and restoration goals. We studied a highly modified agricultural system in southern Australia that is typical of many temperate agriculture zones globally (i.e., has a high proportion of endangered species, high levels of habitat fragmentation, and presence of non-native species). We quantified the economic returns from agriculture and from carbon plantings (monoculture and mixed tree and shrubs) under six carbon-price scenarios. We also identified high-priority locations for restoration of cleared landscapes with mixed tree and shrub carbon plantings. Depending on the price of carbon, direct annual payments to landowners of AU$7/ha/year to $125/ha/year (US$6-120/ha/year) may be sufficient to augment economic returns from a carbon market and encourage tree plantings that contribute more to the restoration of natural systems and endangered species habitats than monocultures. Thus, areas of high priority for conservation and restoration may be restored relatively cheaply in the presence of a carbon market. Overall, however, less carbon is sequestered by mixed native tree and shrub plantings. © 2011 Society for Conservation Biology.

Optimal Price Skimming by a Monopolist Facing Rational Consumers

OpenAIRE

David Besanko; Wayne L. Winston

1990-01-01

This paper considers the intertemporal pricing problem for a monopolist marketing a new product. The key feature differentiating this paper from the extant management science literature on intertemporal pricing is the assumption that consumers are intertemporal utility maximizers. A subgame perfect Nash equilibrium pricing policy is characterized and shown to involve intertemporal price discrimination. We compare this policy to the optimal policy for a monopolist facing myopic consumers and f...

Energy pricing policy in Iran

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Davood Manzoor

1995-01-01

Low energy prices in Iran do not reflect economic costs. Further distortions exist in the tariff structures of most energy sources and in their relative prices. Price reform is a key policy element for achieving increased energy conservation and economic substitution. Subsidies should be made transparent and explained by the Government, and, when eliminated, they could be compensated by target measures or direct subsidies for low income households. Price reforms are under way, with some caution though, because of possible political and inflationary consequences. In order to better understand the need for price reforms a brief analysis of the current energy pricing policy is provided there. (author)

Economics of National Waste Terminal Storage Spent Fuel Pricing Study

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1978-05-01

The methodology for equitably pricing commercial nuclear spent fuel management is developed, and the results of four sample calculations are presented. The spent fuel management program analyzed places encapsulated spent fuel in bedded salt while maintaining long-term retrievability. System design was reasonable but not optimum. When required, privately-owned Away From Reactor (AFR) storage is provided and the spent fuel placed in AFR storage is eventually transported to final storage. Applicable Research and Development and Government Overhead are included. The cost of each component by year was estimated from the most recent applicable data source available. These costs were input to the pricing methodology to establish a one-time charge whose present value exactly recovered the present value of the expenditure flow. The four cases exercised were combinations of a high and a low quantity of spent fuel managed, with a single repository (venture) or a multiple repository (campaign) approach to system financial structure. The price for spent fuel management calculated ranged from 116 to 152 dollars (1978) per kilogram charged initially to the reactor. The effect of spent fuel receiving rate on price is illustrated by the fact that the extremes of price did not coincide with the cases having the extremes of undiscounted cost. These prices for spent fuel management are comparable in magnitude to other fuel cycle costs. The range of variation is small because of compensating effects, i.e., additional costs for high early deliveries (AFR and transportation) versus lower present value of future revenue for later delivery cases. The methodology contains numerous conservative assumptions, provisions for contingencies, and covers the complete set of spent fuel management expenses

Close-Form Pricing of Benchmark Equity Default Swaps Under the CEV Assumption

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Campi, L.; Sbuelz, A.

2005-01-01

Equity Default Swaps are new equity derivatives designed as a product for credit investors.Equipped with a novel pricing result, we provide closedform values that give an analytic contribution to the viability of cross-asset trading related to credit risk.

Organic vs. Non-Organic Food Products: Credence and Price Competition

OpenAIRE

Yi Wang; Zhanguo Zhu; Feng Chu

2017-01-01

We analyze the organic and non-organic production choices of two firms by considering customers’ trust in organic food products. In the context of customers’ possible willingness to pay a premium price and their mistrust in organic food products, two firms first make choices on offering organic and non-organic food products. If offering organic products, a firm can further invest in the credence system to increase customers’ trust in their organic products. At the final stage, two firms deter...

Consumer responses to time varying prices for electricity

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Thorsnes, Paul; Williams, John; Lawson, Rob

2012-01-01

We report new experimental evidence of the household response to weekday differentials in peak and off-peak electricity prices. The data come from Auckland, New Zealand, where peak residential electricity consumption occurs in winter for heating. Peak/off-peak price differentials ranged over four randomly selected groups from 1.0 to 3.5. On average, there was no response except in winter. In winter, participant households reduced electricity consumption by at least 10%, took advantage of lower off-peak prices but did not respond to the peak price differentials. Response varied with house and household size, time spent away from home, and whether water was heated with electricity. - Highlights: ► Seasonal effects in winter. ► High conservation effect from information. ► Higher peak prices no effect on peak use. ► Low off-peak prices encourage less conservation off-peak.

Voluntary non-monetary approaches for implementing conservation

OpenAIRE

Santangeli, Andrea; Arroyo, Beatriz; Dicks, Lynn V.; Herzon, Irina; Kukkala, Aija S.; Sutherland, William J.; Moilanen, Atte

2016-01-01

The voluntary non-monetary approach to conservation refers to actions that citizens or organizations could voluntarily implement in their area of influence without the incentive of monetary compensations. To be effectively implemented by untrained actors, actions should be clearly defined, straightforward to implement and not require specific scientific knowledge. The costs of actions should also be sufficiently affordable to be widely applied without monetary incentives. A voluntary non-mone...

An analysis of heating and cooling conservation features in commercial buildings

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sutherland, R.J.

1990-01-01

One purpose of this study is to estimate the relationship in commercial buildings between conservation investments, fuel prices, building occupancy and building characteristics for new buildings and for existing buildings. The data base is a nationwide survey of energy in commercial buildings conducted by the Energy Information Administration (EIA) in 1986. Some simple cross-tabulations indicate that conservation measures vary with building size, building age, type of building, and fuel used for building heating. Regression estimates of a conservation model indicate that the number of conservation features installed during construction is a positive function of the price of the heating fuel at the time of construction. Subsequent additions of conservation features are positively correlated with increases in heating fuel prices. Given the EIA projection of relatively stable future energy prices, the number of retrofits may not increase significantly. Also, energy efficiency in new buildings may not continue to increase relative to current new buildings. If fuel prices affect consumption via initial conservation investments, current fuel prices, marginal or average, are not the appropriate specification. The fuel price regression results indicate that conservation investments in new buildings are responsive to market signals. Retrofits are less responsive to market signals. The number of conservation features in a building is not statistically related to the type of occupancy (owner versus renter), which implies that conservation strategies are not impeded by the renting or leasing of buildings

Making conservation work for everyone

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Wiersma, J. [Veridian Corp., Ajax, ON (Canada)

2004-07-01

This presentation discussed the economic value of conservation, the optimal deployment of energy conservation. A sample load profile was presented to demonstrate how much electricity the average residential customer uses on a summer day. The average customer does not have the tools to understand the financial consequences of conservation for different types of equipment at different times of the day. Smart metering technology could help in this regard. Accurate unsubsidized prices are also considered to be the best incentive to conserve because customers will reduce electricity use when the prices are high. It was also suggested that standards for new appliances should be increased effectively to their economic value. The enablers to energy conservation include solid consumer education programs, real time metering in places where it is cost effective, real time pricing in places where it is practical, and power rates that reflect real costs. Barriers to energy conservation include the residual economic advantage that may be insufficient to justify investment; support from local distribution companies and transmission companies if the lost revenue adjustment mechanism (LRAM) is not sufficient to recover lost revenue and if LDCs are not sufficiently involved in the design of the electricity conservation program. 7 figs.

R-charge Conservation and More in Factorizable and Non-Factorizable Orbifolds

CERN Document Server

Bizet, Nana Geraldine Cabo; Pena, Damian Kaloni Mayorga; Parameswaran, Susha L; Schmitz, Matthias; Zavala, Ivonne

2013-01-01

We consider the string theory origin of R-charge conservation laws in heterotic orbifold compactifications, deriving the corresponding string coupling selection rule for factorizable and non-factorizable orbifolds, with prime ordered and non-prime ordered point groups. R-charge conservation arises due to symmetries among the worldsheet instantons that can mediate the couplings. Among our results is a previously missed non-trivial contribution to the conserved R-charges from the Gamma-phases in non-prime orbifolds, which weakens the R-charge selection rule. Symmetries among the worldsheet instantons can also lead to additional selection rules for some couplings. We make a similar analysis for Rule 4 or the 'torus lattice selection rule'. Moreover, we identify a new string selection rule, that we call Rule 6 or the 'coset vector selection rule'.

Pricing hospital care: Global budgets and marginal pricing strategies.

Science.gov (United States)

Sutherland, Jason M

2015-08-01

The Canadian province of British Columbia (BC) is adding financial incentives to increase the volume of surgeries provided by hospitals using a marginal pricing approach. The objective of this study is to calculate marginal costs of surgeries based on assumptions regarding hospitals' availability of labor and equipment. This study is based on observational clinical, administrative and financial data generated by hospitals. Hospital inpatient and outpatient discharge summaries from the province are linked with detailed activity-based costing information, stratified by assigned case mix categorizations. To reflect a range of operating constraints governing hospitals' ability to increase their volume of surgeries, a number of scenarios are proposed. Under these scenarios, estimated marginal costs are calculated and compared to prices being offered as incentives to hospitals. Existing data can be used to support alternative strategies for pricing hospital care. Prices for inpatient surgeries do not generate positive margins under a range of operating scenarios. Hip and knee surgeries generate surpluses for hospitals even under the most costly labor conditions and are expected to generate additional volume. In health systems that wish to fine-tune financial incentives, setting prices that create incentives for additional volume should reflect knowledge of hospitals' underlying cost structures. Possible implications of mis-pricing include no response to the incentives or uneven increases in supply. Copyright © 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ireland Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Estimating the price elasticity of expenditure for prescription drugs in the presence of non-linear price schedules: an illustration from Quebec, Canada.

Science.gov (United States)

Contoyannis, Paul; Hurley, Jeremiah; Grootendorst, Paul; Jeon, Sung-Hee; Tamblyn, Robyn

2005-09-01

The price elasticity of demand for prescription drugs is a crucial parameter of interest in designing pharmaceutical benefit plans. Estimating the elasticity using micro-data, however, is challenging because insurance coverage that includes deductibles, co-insurance provisions and maximum expenditure limits create a non-linear price schedule, making price endogenous (a function of drug consumption). In this paper we exploit an exogenous change in cost-sharing within the Quebec (Canada) public Pharmacare program to estimate the price elasticity of expenditure for drugs using IV methods. This approach corrects for the endogeneity of price and incorporates the concept of a 'rational' consumer who factors into consumption decisions the price they expect to face at the margin given their expected needs. The IV method is adapted from an approach developed in the public finance literature used to estimate income responses to changes in tax schedules. The instrument is based on the price an individual would face under the new cost-sharing policy if their consumption remained at the pre-policy level. Our preferred specification leads to expenditure elasticities that are in the low range of previous estimates (between -0.12 and -0.16). Naïve OLS estimates are between 1 and 4 times these magnitudes. (c) 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

A Non-linear "Inflation-Relative Prices Variability" Relationship: Evidence from Latin America

OpenAIRE

Mª Ángeles Caraballo Pou; Carlos Dabús; Diego Caramuta

2006-01-01

This paper presents evidence on a non-linear "inflation-relative prices variability" relationship in three Latin American countries with very high inflation experiences: Argentina, Brazil and Peru. More precisely, and in contrast to results found in previous literature for similar countries, we find a non-concave relation at higher inflation regimes, i.e. when inflation rate surpasses certain threshold. This non-concavity is mainly explained by the unexpected component of inflation, which sug...

Optimal pricing and investment in the electricity sector in Tamil Nadu, India

Science.gov (United States)

Murthy, Ranganath Srinivas

2001-07-01

Faulty pricing policies and inadequate investment in the power sector are responsible for the chronic power shortages that plague Tamil Nadu and the rest of India. Formulae for optimal pricing rules are derived for a social welfare maximizing Electricity Board which sells electricity that is used both as an intermediate, and as a final good. Because of distributional constraints, the optimal prices deviate systematically from marginal costs. Optimal relative price-marginal cost differentials are computed for Tamil Nadu, and are found to indicate a lower degree of subsidization than the prevailing prices. The rationalization of electricity tariffs would very likely increase the Board's revenues. The cost-effectiveness of nuclear power in India is examined by comparing actual data for the Madras Atomic Power Project and the Singrauli coal-fired thermal power station. The conventional (non-environmental) costs of power generation are compared at both market prices and shadow prices, calculated according to the UNIDO guidelines for project evaluation. Despite favorable assumptions for the costs of the nuclear plant, coal had a decided edge over nuclear in Tamil Nadu. Remarkably, the edge varied little when market prices are replaced by shadow prices in the computations. With regard to the environmental costs, far too much remains unknown. More research is therefore needed on the environmental impacts of both types of power generation before a final choice can be made.

Investigation of assumptions underlying current safety guidelines on EM-induced nerve stimulation

Science.gov (United States)

Neufeld, Esra; Vogiatzis Oikonomidis, Ioannis; Iacono, Maria Ida; Angelone, Leonardo M.; Kainz, Wolfgang; Kuster, Niels

2016-06-01

An intricate network of a variety of nerves is embedded within the complex anatomy of the human body. Although nerves are shielded from unwanted excitation, they can still be stimulated by external electromagnetic sources that induce strongly non-uniform field distributions. Current exposure safety standards designed to limit unwanted nerve stimulation are based on a series of explicit and implicit assumptions and simplifications. This paper demonstrates the applicability of functionalized anatomical phantoms with integrated coupled electromagnetic and neuronal dynamics solvers for investigating the impact of magnetic resonance exposure on nerve excitation within the full complexity of the human anatomy. The impact of neuronal dynamics models, temperature and local hot-spots, nerve trajectory and potential smoothing, anatomical inhomogeneity, and pulse duration on nerve stimulation was evaluated. As a result, multiple assumptions underlying current safety standards are questioned. It is demonstrated that coupled EM-neuronal dynamics modeling involving realistic anatomies is valuable to establish conservative safety criteria.

About the lepton number non conservation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bernabeu, J

1989-01-01

The possibility of lepton number non conservation through the mixing of lepton flavours, as well as the IΔLI=2 lepton antilepton conversion, is discussed. The paper follows the scheme: i) Experimental Situation; ii) Relation with the Neutrino Mass problem; iii) Majorana Neutrinos?; iv) Extensions of the Standard Model; v) Lepton Flavour Violating Decays of μ and τ; vi) Z∞ Boson Decays. (Author)

Optimising the extraction rate of a non-durable non-renewable resource in a monopolistic market: a mathematical programming approach.

Science.gov (United States)

Corominas, Albert; Fossas, Enric

2015-01-01

We assume a monopolistic market for a non-durable non-renewable resource such as crude oil, phosphates or fossil water. Stating the problem of obtaining optimal policies on extraction and pricing of the resource as a non-linear program allows general conclusions to be drawn under diverse assumptions about the demand curve, discount rates and length of the planning horizon. We compare the results with some common beliefs about the pace of exhaustion of this kind of resources.

Helicity non-conserving form factor of the proton

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Voutier, E.; Furget, C.; Knox, S. [Universite Joseph Fourier, Grenoble (France)] [and others

1994-04-01

The study of the hadron structure in the high Q{sup 2} range contributes to the understanding of the mechanisms responsible for the confinement of quarks and gluons. Among the numerous experimental candidates sensitive to these mechanisms, the helicity non-conserving form factor of the proton is a privileged observable since it is controlled by non-perturbative effects. The authors investigate here the feasibility of high Q{sup 2} measurements of this form factor by means of the recoil polarization method in the context of the CEBAF 8 GeV facility. For that purpose, they discuss the development of a high energy proton polarimeter, based on the H({rvec p},pp) elastic scattering, to be placed at the focal plane of a new hadron spectrometer. It is shown that this experimental method significantly improves the knowledge of the helicity non-conserving form factor of the proton up to 10 GeV{sup 2}/c{sup 2}.

Construction of local and non-local conservation laws for non-linear field equations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Vladimirov, V.S.; Volovich, I.V.

1984-08-01

A method of constructing conserved currents for non-linear field equations is presented. More explicitly for non-linear equations, which can be derived from compatibility conditions of some linear system with a parameter, a procedure of obtaining explicit expressions for local and non-local currents is developed. Some examples such as the classical Heisenberg spin chain and supersymmetric Yang-Mills theory are considered. (author)

Economic analysis of price premiums in the presence of non-convexities. Evidence from German electricity markets

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Paschmann, Martin

2017-11-15

Analyzing price data from sequential German electricity markets, namely the day-ahead and intraday auction, a puzzling but apparently systematic pattern of price premiums can be identified. The price premiums are highly correlated with the underlying demand profile. As there is evidence that widespread models for electricity forward premiums are not applicable to the market dynamics under analysis, a theoretical model is developed within this article which reveals that non-convexities in only a subset of sequential markets with differing product granularity may cause systematic price premiums at equilibrium. These price premiums may be bidirectional and reflect a value for additional short-term power supply system flexibility.

Economic analysis of price premiums in the presence of non-convexities. Evidence from German electricity markets

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Paschmann, Martin

2017-01-01

Analyzing price data from sequential German electricity markets, namely the day-ahead and intraday auction, a puzzling but apparently systematic pattern of price premiums can be identified. The price premiums are highly correlated with the underlying demand profile. As there is evidence that widespread models for electricity forward premiums are not applicable to the market dynamics under analysis, a theoretical model is developed within this article which reveals that non-convexities in only a subset of sequential markets with differing product granularity may cause systematic price premiums at equilibrium. These price premiums may be bidirectional and reflect a value for additional short-term power supply system flexibility.

The Access Pricing Problem: A Synthesis.

OpenAIRE

Armstrong, Mark; Doyle, Chris; Vickers, John

1996-01-01

The Baumol-Willig efficient component pricing rule states that it is efficient to set the price of access to an essential facility equal to the direct cost of access plus the opportunity cost to the integrated access provider. The authors analyze the relevant notion of 'opportunity cost' under various assumptions about demand and supply conditions, including product differentiation, bypass, and substitution possibilities, which all reduce opportunity cost compared to the benchmark case. They ...

Pricing of Traffic Light Options and other Correlation Derivatives

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kokholm, Thomas

This paper considers derivatives with payoffs that depend on a stock index and underlying LIBOR rates. A traffic light option pricing formula is derived under lognormality assumptions on the underlying processes. The traffic light option is aimed at the Danish life and pension sector to help...... the pricing of a hybrid derivative known as the EUR Sage Note. The approach can be used to price many existing structured products....

PRICE REACTIONS AND ORGANIC PRICE PREMIUMS FOR PRIVATE LABEL AND BRANDED MILK

OpenAIRE

Zhuang, Yan; Dimitri, Carolyn; Jaenicke, Edward C.

2010-01-01

Using Nielsen Homescan data set from 52 markets in the United States, this paper assesses the price interactions among the four fluid milk categories (organic private label, organic national brand, non-organic private label and non-organic national brand), how demographic variables and product properties in a market affect milk prices, and the impacts of private label and organic milk market shares on milk prices. We find several types of price competition exist among the four milk categories...

Electricity price and Southern California's water supply options

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Dale, Larry [Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Camilla Dunham Whitehead, Andre Fargeix, Golden Gate Economics, 1 Cycltron Road, Berkeley, CA 94720 (United States)

2004-11-01

This paper evaluates the impact of fluctuating electricity prices on the cost of five options to increase the water supply to urban areas in Southern California-new surface storage, water purchases, desalination, wastewater recycling, and conservation.We show that the price of electricity required to produce and transport water influences the cost of water supply options and may alter the decision makers economic ranking of these options. When electricity prices are low, water purchase is the cost effective option. When prices exceed US$ 86/MWh, conservation of electricity and water through installation of high efficiency clothes washers is the most effective option.

VaR and CVaR Implied in Option Prices

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Giovanni Barone Adesi

2016-02-01

Full Text Available VaR (Value at Risk and CVaR (Conditional Value at Risk are implied by option prices. Their relationships to option prices are derived initially under the pricing measure. It does not require assumptions about the distribution of portfolio returns. The effects of changes of measure are modest at the short horizons typically used in applications. The computation of CVaR from option price is very convenient, because this measure is not elicitable, making direct comparisons of statistical inferences from market data problematic.

Optimization of a Future RLV Business Case using Multiple Strategic Market Prices

Science.gov (United States)

Charania, A.; Olds, J. R.

2002-01-01

contribution, tax-breaks, loan guarantees, etc. The optimization performed here is for a 3rd Generation RLV program. The economic metric being optimized (maximized) is Net Present Value (NPV) based upon a given company financial structure and cost of capital assumptions. Such an optimization process demands more sophisticated optimizers and can result in non-unique solutions/local minimums if using gradient-based optimization. Domain spanning/evolutionary algorithms are used to obtain the optimized solution in the design space. These capabilities generally increase model calculation time but incorporate realistic pricing portfolios than just assuming one unified price for all launch markets. This analysis is conducted with CABAM running in Phoenix Integration's ModelCenter 4.0 collaborative design environment using the SpaceWorks Engineering, Inc. (SEI) OptWorks suite of optimization components.

Water Pricing as an Economic Justification for Reducing Non-Revenue Water (NRW Projects

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Massoud Tabesh

2017-03-01

Full Text Available Management of water demand and modification of consumption patterns are becoming increasingly essential due to the increasingly limited precipitation and the growing population which have led to both severe restrictions on renewable water resources and increasing demands for water in Iran. The most important consumption management measures involve reducing Non-Revenue Water (NRW and decreasing water losses in the water supply system. Non-revenue water is defined as the difference between the total inflow and the metered consumption in the supply system. The losses may be divided into the two components of apparent and real losses. Achieving reductions in non-revenue water calls for the careful study and evaluation of the operational procedures proposed in each case since reductions will be economical only when accurate and realistic values are considered in water pricing. The present study draws upon the data obtained from non-revenue water projects implemented in District 4 of Tehran Water and Wastewater Company, the measures proposed by the project consultant, and the economic justifications claimed for all the costs associated with the measures to eliminate water losses. The cost of the proposed measures are calculated for two different economic values of water proposed to ensure benefits, and under four different interest rates. Results confirm the profitability of the non-revenue water solutions based on the finished cost of water even at subsidized rates of public funds. However, project profitability will be in question if the economic price of water is assumed to be equivalent to the total trade price of water and if both real and apparent losses are to be reduced.

Pricing and Trust

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Huck, Steffen; Ruchala, Gabriele K.; Tyran, Jean-Robert

-competitive (monopolistic) markets. We then introduce a regulated intermediate price above the oligopoly price and below the monopoly price. The effect in monopolies is more or less in line with standard intuition. As price falls volume increases and so does quality, such that overall efficiency is raised by 50%. However......We experimentally examine the effects of flexible and fixed prices in markets for experience goods in which demand is driven by trust. With flexible prices, we observe low prices and high quality in competitive (oligopolistic) markets, and high prices coupled with low quality in non...

Nonlinear Pricing of Information Goods

OpenAIRE

Arun Sundararajan

2003-01-01

This paper analyzes optimal pricing for information goods under incomplete information, when both unlimited-usage (fixed-fee) pricing and usage-based pricing are feasible, and administering usage-based pricing may involve transaction costs. It is shown that offering fixed- fee pricing in addition to a non-linear usage-based pricing scheme is always profit-improving in the presence of any non-zero transaction costs, and there may be markets in which a pure fixed-fee is optimal. This implies th...

Location, location, location: Extracting location value from house prices

OpenAIRE

Kolbe, Jens; Schulz, Rainer; Wersing, Martin; Werwatz, Axel

2012-01-01

The price for a single-family house depends both on the characteristics of the building and on its location. We propose a novel semiparametric method to extract location values from house prices. After splitting house prices into building and land components, location values are estimated with adaptive weight smoothing. The adaptive estimator requires neither strong smoothness assumptions nor local symmetry. We apply the method to house transactions from Berlin, Germany. The estimated surface...

Non-Noether Conserved Quantity for Relativistic Nonholonomic System with Variable Mass

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Qiao Yongfen; Li Renjie; Ma Yongsheng

2005-01-01

Using form invariance under special infinitesimal transformations in which time is not variable, the non-Noether conserved quantity of the relativistic nonholonomic system with variable mass is studied. The differential equations of motion of the system are established. The definition and criterion of the form invariance of the system under infinitesimal transformations are studied. The necessary and sufficient condition under which the form invariance is a Lie symmetry is given. The condition under which the form invariance can be led to a non-Noether conserved quantity and the form of the conserved quantity are obtained. Finally, an example is given to illustrate the application of the result.

Behavioral assumptions of conservation policy: conserving oak habitat on family-forest land in the Willamette Valley, Oregon

Science.gov (United States)

A. Paige Fischer; John C. Bliss

2008-01-01

Designing policies that harness the motivations of landowners is essential for conserving threatened habitats on private lands. Our goal was to understand how to apply ethnographic information about family-forest owners to the design of conservation policy for Oregon white oak (Quercus garryana) in the Willamette Valley, Oregon (U.S.A.). We examined...

A Note on the Fundamental Theorem of Asset Pricing under Model Uncertainty

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Erhan Bayraktar

2014-10-01

Full Text Available We show that the recent results on the Fundamental Theorem of Asset Pricing and the super-hedging theorem in the context of model uncertainty can be extended to the case in which the options available for static hedging (hedging options are quoted with bid-ask spreads. In this set-up, we need to work with the notion of robust no-arbitrage which turns out to be equivalent to no-arbitrage under the additional assumption that hedging options with non-zero spread are non-redundant. A key result is the closedness of the set of attainable claims, which requires a new proof in our setting.

Equity prices, productivity growth and 'The New Economy'

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Madsen, Jakob B.; Davis, E. Philip

2006-01-01

The sharp increase in equity prices over the 1990s was widely attributed to permanently higher productivity growth derived from the New Economy. This article establishes a rational expectations model of technology innovations and equity prices, which shows that under plausible assumptions......, productivity advances can only have temporary effects on the fundamentals of equity prices. Using historical data on productivity of R&D capital, patent capital and fixed capital for 11 OECD countries, empirical evidence gives strong support for the model by suggesting that technological innovations indeed...

The market for conservation and other hostages

OpenAIRE

Harstad, Bård

2016-01-01

A conservation good, such as the rainforest, is a hostage: it is possessed by S who may prefer to consume it, but B receives a larger value from continued conservation. A range of prices would make trade mutually beneficial. So, why doesn't B purchase conservation, or the forest, from S? If this were an equilibrium, S would never consume, anticipating a higher price at the next stage. Anticipating this, B prefers to deviate and not pay. The Markov-perfect equilibria are in mixed strategies, i...

The non-random walk of stock prices: the long-term correlation between signs and sizes

Science.gov (United States)

La Spada, G.; Farmer, J. D.; Lillo, F.

2008-08-01

We investigate the random walk of prices by developing a simple model relating the properties of the signs and absolute values of individual price changes to the diffusion rate (volatility) of prices at longer time scales. We show that this benchmark model is unable to reproduce the diffusion properties of real prices. Specifically, we find that for one hour intervals this model consistently over-predicts the volatility of real price series by about 70%, and that this effect becomes stronger as the length of the intervals increases. By selectively shuffling some components of the data while preserving others we are able to show that this discrepancy is caused by a subtle but long-range non-contemporaneous correlation between the signs and sizes of individual returns. We conjecture that this is related to the long-memory of transaction signs and the need to enforce market efficiency.

PRICE RIGIDITY AND MONETARY NON-NEUTRALITY IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES: EVIDENCE FROM NIGERIA

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Nathaniel E. Urama

2013-04-01

Full Text Available In an attempt to find out the degree of monetary non-neutrality in Nigeria we started from finding out the size of price rigidity in the country. Computation with Ball and Romer method showed that price rigidity is optimal decision for firms in Nigeria only when the menu cost is well above 2.28% of the firm’s revenue which is on the high side, showing the likelihood of weak price rigidity in the country. Confirming this, the IRFs of the SVAR shows that the response of inflation to nominal shock has only one period lag. These combined results led to a small though persistent response of output to the nominal shock. The result of the study therefore points towards large nominal and small real effect of monetary policy in Nigeria and conclude that monetary policy will be a better option for contractionary plan but not for an expansionary plan.

Multiverse Assumptions and Philosophy

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

James R. Johnson

2018-02-01

Full Text Available Multiverses are predictions based on theories. Focusing on each theory’s assumptions is key to evaluating a proposed multiverse. Although accepted theories of particle physics and cosmology contain non-intuitive features, multiverse theories entertain a host of “strange” assumptions classified as metaphysical (outside objective experience, concerned with fundamental nature of reality, ideas that cannot be proven right or wrong topics such as: infinity, duplicate yous, hypothetical fields, more than three space dimensions, Hilbert space, advanced civilizations, and reality established by mathematical relationships. It is easy to confuse multiverse proposals because many divergent models exist. This overview defines the characteristics of eleven popular multiverse proposals. The characteristics compared are: initial conditions, values of constants, laws of nature, number of space dimensions, number of universes, and fine tuning explanations. Future scientific experiments may validate selected assumptions; but until they do, proposals by philosophers may be as valid as theoretical scientific theories.

76 FR 47518 - Energy Conservation Program: Treatment of “Smart” Appliances in Energy Conservation Standards and...

Science.gov (United States)

2011-08-05

.... Typical examples of operating changes include load shifting and load shedding in response to a price.... DOE seeks estimates and underlying assumptions for market share penetration estimates of ``smart...

Resident Load Influence Analysis Method for Price Based on Non-intrusive Load Monitoring and Decomposition Data

Science.gov (United States)

Jiang, Wenqian; Zeng, Bo; Yang, Zhou; Li, Gang

2018-01-01

In the non-invasive load monitoring mode, the load decomposition can reflect the running state of each load, which will help the user reduce unnecessary energy costs. With the demand side management measures of time of using price, a resident load influence analysis method for time of using price (TOU) based on non-intrusive load monitoring data are proposed in the paper. Relying on the current signal of the resident load classification, the user equipment type, and different time series of self-elasticity and cross-elasticity of the situation could be obtained. Through the actual household load data test with the impact of TOU, part of the equipment will be transferred to the working hours, and users in the peak price of electricity has been reduced, and in the electricity at the time of the increase Electrical equipment, with a certain regularity.

Impact evaluation to communicate and improve conservation non-governmental organization performance: the case of Conservation International.

Science.gov (United States)

McKinnon, Madeleine C; Mascia, Michael B; Yang, Wu; Turner, Will R; Bonham, Curan

2015-11-05

The rising prominence of more rigorous approaches to measuring conservation outcomes has included greater adoption of impact evaluation by conservation non-governmental organizations (CNGOs). Within the scientific literature, however, little consideration has been given to the unique and specific roles of CNGOs in advancing impact evaluation. We explore these issues in the context of one CNGO-Conservation International (CI)-and its experiences producing, using and funding impact evaluations over the past decade. We examine the contributions of impact evaluation to CI's mission at three different stages of CI's strategy: innovation, demonstration and amplification. Furthermore, we review incentives and barriers encountered by CI in its 10+ years' experience in impact evaluation. More coordinated and strategic use of impact evaluation by CNGOs would facilitate learning and promote accountability across the conservation community. © 2015 The Author(s).

Air-conditioning Australian households: The impact of dynamic peak pricing

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Strengers, Yolande

2010-01-01

International mandates for smart metering are enabling variable and real-time pricing regimes such as dynamic peak pricing (DPP), which charges 10-40 times the off-peak rate for electricity during short periods. This regime aims to reduce peak electricity demand (predominantly due to increase in residential air-conditioning usage) and curb greenhouse gas emissions. Although trials indicate that DPP can achieve significant demand reductions, particularly in summer, little is known about how or why households change their cooling practices in response to this strategy. This paper discusses the outcomes of a small qualitative study assessing the impact of a DPP trial on household cooling practices in the Australian state of New South Wales. The study challenges common assumptions about the necessity of air-conditioning and impact of price signals. It finds that DPP engages households as co-managers of their cooling practices through a series of notification signals (SMS, phone, in-home display, email, etc.). Further, by linking the price signal to air-conditioning, some householders consider this practice discretionary for short periods of time. The paper concludes by warning that policy makers and utilities may serve to legitimise air-conditioning usage and/or negate demand reductions by failing to acknowledge the non-rational dynamics of DPP and household cooling practices. - Research highlights: →Most householders consider air-conditioning discretionary during DPP events →DPP engages householders as co-managers of their demand →Notification of an upcoming DPP event is significant to the response →Householders feel obligated to respond to DPP for a range of non-financial reasons

Price Setting Mechanisms in Complementary Currencies in Argentina's Redes de Trueque

NARCIS (Netherlands)

G.M. Gómez (Georgina)

2015-01-01

textabstractComplementary currency systems are based on principles of solidarity and contestation of the regular currency systems, so their prices may differ from those in the regular economy. This study aims to explore that assumption and discusses in what ways and for what reasons some prices are

Evaluation of tendered prices of natural mineral water, juice and non-alcoholic beer (public procurement research

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Nataša Pomazalová

2011-01-01

Full Text Available The purpose of this paper is to evaluate tender prices of chosen beverages according to public procurement based on secondary data analysis. The empirical results of analysis (t-test and F-test show that average annual prices of these beverages are different and collected data are not included in the same sample. Tender prices are different in each year of observed years, although are based on public tender. Important evidence is that for the public tenders in the abroad is obligatory use of the Czech public procurement law. According to this act the base evaluation criterion is the lowest offered price. Data were collected during the years 2005–2009. This study deals with empirical approach, variability of prices of chosen beverages based on public tenders between the Czech Republic (Ministry of Defence and local suppliers in Kosovo. Results show low variability of prices, which are based on public tender and legal approach, regulated public procurement. The research conclusion is the fact, that tender prices for piece of non-alcoholic beverage are less than 10 % from annual mean (pcs./CZK of tendered prices.

Highly conserved non-coding sequences are associated with vertebrate development.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Adam Woolfe

2005-01-01

Full Text Available In addition to protein coding sequence, the human genome contains a significant amount of regulatory DNA, the identification of which is proving somewhat recalcitrant to both in silico and functional methods. An approach that has been used with some success is comparative sequence analysis, whereby equivalent genomic regions from different organisms are compared in order to identify both similarities and differences. In general, similarities in sequence between highly divergent organisms imply functional constraint. We have used a whole-genome comparison between humans and the pufferfish, Fugu rubripes, to identify nearly 1,400 highly conserved non-coding sequences. Given the evolutionary divergence between these species, it is likely that these sequences are found in, and furthermore are essential to, all vertebrates. Most, and possibly all, of these sequences are located in and around genes that act as developmental regulators. Some of these sequences are over 90% identical across more than 500 bases, being more highly conserved than coding sequence between these two species. Despite this, we cannot find any similar sequences in invertebrate genomes. In order to begin to functionally test this set of sequences, we have used a rapid in vivo assay system using zebrafish embryos that allows tissue-specific enhancer activity to be identified. Functional data is presented for highly conserved non-coding sequences associated with four unrelated developmental regulators (SOX21, PAX6, HLXB9, and SHH, in order to demonstrate the suitability of this screen to a wide range of genes and expression patterns. Of 25 sequence elements tested around these four genes, 23 show significant enhancer activity in one or more tissues. We have identified a set of non-coding sequences that are highly conserved throughout vertebrates. They are found in clusters across the human genome, principally around genes that are implicated in the regulation of development

Asset Pricing Implications of Firms' Financing Constraints

OpenAIRE

Gomes, Joao F; Yaron, Amir; Zhang, Lu

2002-01-01

We incorporate costly external finance in a production based asset pricing model and investigate whether financing frictions are quantitatively important for pricing a cross-section of expected returns. We show that the common assumptions about the nature of the financing frictions are captured by a simple ‘financing cost’ function, equal to the product of the financing premium and the amount of external finance. This approach provides a tractable framework to examine the role of financing fr...

Reflections on assumption of energetic politics. Viewpoint of a sceptial observer

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Taczanowski, S.; Pohorecki, W.

2000-01-01

The Polish assumptions of energetic politics up to 2020 have been critically assessed. Energy sources availability as well as predicted fuel prices have been discussed for interesting period. Fossil fuels and uranium have been taken into account. On the presented basis it has been concluded that rejection the nuclear option in Poland for energetics development plans up to 2020 seems to be a serious mistake

Designing non-Hermitian dynamics for conservative state evolution on the Bloch sphere

Science.gov (United States)

Yu, Sunkyu; Piao, Xianji; Park, Namkyoo

2018-03-01

An evolution on the Bloch sphere is the fundamental state transition, including optical polarization controls and qubit operations. Conventional evolution of a polarization state or qubit is implemented within a closed system that automatically satisfies energy conservation from the Hermitian formalism. Although particular forms of static non-Hermitian Hamiltonians, such as parity-time-symmetric Hamiltonians, allow conservative states in an open system, the criteria for the energy conservation in a dynamical open system have not been fully explored. Here, we derive the condition of conservative state evolution in open-system dynamics and its inverse design method, by developing the non-Hermitian modification of the Larmor precession equation. We show that the geometrically designed locus on the Bloch sphere can be realized by different forms of dynamics, leading to the isolocus family of non-Hermitian dynamics. This increased degree of freedom allows the complementary phenomena of error-robust and highly sensitive evolutions on the Bloch sphere, which could be applicable to stable polarizers, quantum gates, and optimized sensors in dynamical open systems.

The drug target genes show higher evolutionary conservation than non-target genes.

Science.gov (United States)

Lv, Wenhua; Xu, Yongdeng; Guo, Yiying; Yu, Ziqi; Feng, Guanglong; Liu, Panpan; Luan, Meiwei; Zhu, Hongjie; Liu, Guiyou; Zhang, Mingming; Lv, Hongchao; Duan, Lian; Shang, Zhenwei; Li, Jin; Jiang, Yongshuai; Zhang, Ruijie

2016-01-26

Although evidence indicates that drug target genes share some common evolutionary features, there have been few studies analyzing evolutionary features of drug targets from an overall level. Therefore, we conducted an analysis which aimed to investigate the evolutionary characteristics of drug target genes. We compared the evolutionary conservation between human drug target genes and non-target genes by combining both the evolutionary features and network topological properties in human protein-protein interaction network. The evolution rate, conservation score and the percentage of orthologous genes of 21 species were included in our study. Meanwhile, four topological features including the average shortest path length, betweenness centrality, clustering coefficient and degree were considered for comparison analysis. Then we got four results as following: compared with non-drug target genes, 1) drug target genes had lower evolutionary rates; 2) drug target genes had higher conservation scores; 3) drug target genes had higher percentages of orthologous genes and 4) drug target genes had a tighter network structure including higher degrees, betweenness centrality, clustering coefficients and lower average shortest path lengths. These results demonstrate that drug target genes are more evolutionarily conserved than non-drug target genes. We hope that our study will provide valuable information for other researchers who are interested in evolutionary conservation of drug targets.

Financial planning and pricing strategy of NEC-AD (BG)

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kynev, K.

1994-01-01

Methods for power pricing under market economy conditions are proposed from the point of view of financial planning. It is completely consistent with state regulation principle based on power supply costs. The main assumption is that instead of fixing prices for particular time periods, a long-term pricing strategy has to be developed. In this way, within the given macro- and micro-economical frames, certain strategical and tactical financial results can be achieved. The methods are worked out based on a real example. 13 tabs. (author)

Effects of scarcity, aesthetics and ecology on wildlife auction prices of large African mammals.

Science.gov (United States)

Dalerum, Fredrik; Miranda, María; Muñiz, Cristina; Rodríguez, Plácido

2018-02-01

For successful integration of biological conservation into economic markets, economic processes need to capture ecological values. South African wildlife ranching is a tourist-based activity that generates unique information on the economic value of wildlife species. We used public data from South African wildlife auctions to evaluate if annual prices 1991-2012 related to species characteristics associated with scarcity, aesthetics and ecology of South African carnivores and ungulates. While none of the species characteristics influenced carnivore prices, ungulate prices were related to characteristics associated with novelty and aesthetics, which relative importance had increased over time. We raise both ecological and economic concerns for this apparent focus. Our results also suggest a potential importance of non-species-related factors, such as market and buyer characteristics. We encourage further evaluation of the relative influences of species characteristics versus factors that are intrinsically linked to economic processes on price variations in South African wildlife.

Oil production responses to price changes. An empirical application of the competitive model to OPEC and non-OPEC countries

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ramcharran, Harri

2002-01-01

Falling oil prices over the last decade, accompanied by over-production by some OPEC members and the growth of non-OPEC supply, warrant further empirical investigation of the competitive model to ascertain production behavior. A supply function, based on a modification of Griffin's model, is estimated using data from 1973-1997. The sample period, unlike Griffin's, however, includes phases of price increase (1970s) and price decrease (1980s-1990s), thus providing a better framework for examining production behavior using the competitive model. The OPEC results do not support the competitive hypothesis; instead, a negative and significant price elasticity of supply is obtained. This result offers partial support for the target revenue theory. For most of the non-OPEC members, the estimates support the competitive model. OPEC's loss of market share and the drop in the share of oil-based energy should signal adjustments in price and quantity based on a competitive world market for crude oil

Current conserving theory at the operator level

Science.gov (United States)

Yuan, Jiangtao; Wang, Yin; Wang, Jian

The basic assumption of quantum transport in mesoscopic systems is that the total charge inside the scattering region is zero. This means that the potential deep inside reservoirs is effectively screened and therefore the electric field at interface of scattering region is zero. Thus the current conservation condition can be satisfied automatically which is an important condition in mesoscopic transport. So far the current conserving ac theory is well developed by considering the displacement current which is due to Coulomb interaction if we just focus on the average current. However, the frequency dependent shot noise does not satisfy the conservation condition since we do not consider the current conservation at the operator level. In this work, we formulate a generalized current conserving theory at the operator level using non-equilibrium Green's function theory which could be applied to both average current and frequency dependent shot noise. A displacement operator is derived for the first time so that the frequency dependent correlation of displacement currents could be investigated. Moreover, the equilibrium shot noise is investigated and a generalized fluctuation-dissipation relationship is presented.

A dual theory of price and value in a meso-scale economic model with stochastic profit rate

Science.gov (United States)

Greenblatt, R. E.

2014-12-01

The problem of commodity price determination in a market-based, capitalist economy has a long and contentious history. Neoclassical microeconomic theories are based typically on marginal utility assumptions, while classical macroeconomic theories tend to be value-based. In the current work, I study a simplified meso-scale model of a commodity capitalist economy. The production/exchange model is represented by a network whose nodes are firms, workers, capitalists, and markets, and whose directed edges represent physical or monetary flows. A pair of multivariate linear equations with stochastic input parameters represent physical (supply/demand) and monetary (income/expense) balance. The input parameters yield a non-degenerate profit rate distribution across firms. Labor time and price are found to be eigenvector solutions to the respective balance equations. A simple relation is derived relating the expected value of commodity price to commodity labor content. Results of Monte Carlo simulations are consistent with the stochastic price/labor content relation.

On the forces and fluxes in non-equilibrium thermodynamics

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kitahara, Kazuo

1986-01-01

A formulation of non-equilibrium thermodynamics of continuum systems based on local equilibrium assumption is reported. Thermodynamic forces are defined from a generalized local entropy and irreversible fluxes are defined as non-advective parts of fluxes of conservative quantities. The validity of the general evolution criterion and its generalization is discussed. (author)

78 FR 7387 - Continuation of 2008 Farm Bill-Dairy Forward Pricing Program

Science.gov (United States)

2013-02-01

...] Continuation of 2008 Farm Bill--Dairy Forward Pricing Program AGENCY: Agricultural Marketing Service, USDA... the Dairy Forward Pricing Program contained in the Food, Conservation and Energy Act of 2008 (the 2008... associations of producers may enter into forward price contracts under the Dairy Forward Pricing Program...

Non-fiscal price incentives. The energy-efficiency impact of differentiated energy prices; Niet-fiscale prijsprikkels. Onderzoek naar het besparingseffect van gedifferentieerde energieprijzen

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Leguijt, C.; Blom, M.B.J.; Schepers, B.L.; Warringa, G.E.A.

2012-02-15

An exploratory study has been carried out on the potential impact of non-fiscal energy incentives. The study will feed into the Dutch government policies on energy efficiency in the built environment. The study takes in both electricity and gas, and private dwellings as well as utility buildings. The following non-fiscal price incentives were considered: (1) consumer prices indexed to consumption volume; (2) consumer prices indexed to time of consumption; (3) the energy-efficiency impact of 'autonomous' increases in energy prices. The energy-efficiency effects of price changes (options 1 and 3) were calculated on the basis of price elasticities, while for option 2 use was made of the results of the Social Cost-Benefit Analysis of Smart Grids carried out by CE Delft in collaboration with KEMA. The conclusions of the study are as follows: (a) Although differentiating consumer prices by consumption volume may yield energy savings of up to 2%, this would require market agreements in breach of the competition rules underpinning the liberalised energy market. This option is therefore unfeasible via consumer prices; (b) The energy savings accruing from indexing consumer prices to time of consumption are uncertain, as the main impact will be a temporal shift in consumption. This option is highly feasible, as such differentiation will in all likelihood evolve of its own accord with the roll-out of smart meters and smart grids; (c) The energy-efficiency impact of autonomous energy price rises is 0.2 to 0.4% per annum [Dutch] CE Delft heeft in opdracht van het Ministerie van Binnenlandse Zaken en Koninkrijkrelaties (BZK) een verkenning uitgevoerd naar de mogelijkheden voor niet-fiscale energieprijsprikkels. De studie maakt onderdeel uit van het plan van aanpak energiebesparing gebouwde omgeving van BZK. De verkenning betreft zowel elektriciteit als gas, en zowel huishoudens als utiliteitbouw. De niet-fiscale prijsprikkels die zijn verkend betreffen: (1

Non-Noether conserved quantity for differential equations of motion in the phase space

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

无

2002-01-01

A non-Noether conserved quantity for the differential equations of motion of mechanical systems in the phase space is studied. The differential equations of motion of the systems are established and the determining equations of Lie symmetry are given. An existence theorem of non-Noether conserved quantity is obtained. An example is given to illustrate the application of the result.

Heterosexual assumptions in verbal and non-verbal communication in nursing.

Science.gov (United States)

Röndahl, Gerd; Innala, Sune; Carlsson, Marianne

2006-11-01

This paper reports a study of what lesbian women and gay men had to say, as patients and as partners, about their experiences of nursing in hospital care, and what they regarded as important to communicate about homosexuality and nursing. The social life of heterosexual cultures is based on the assumption that all people are heterosexual, thereby making homosexuality socially invisible. Nurses may assume that all patients and significant others are heterosexual, and these heteronormative assumptions may lead to poor communication that affects nursing quality by leading nurses to ask the wrong questions and make incorrect judgements. A qualitative interview study was carried out in the spring of 2004. Seventeen women and 10 men ranging in age from 23 to 65 years from different parts of Sweden participated. They described 46 experiences as patients and 31 as partners. Heteronormativity was communicated in waiting rooms, in patient documents and when registering for admission, and nursing staff sometimes showed perplexity when an informant deviated from this heteronormative assumption. Informants had often met nursing staff who showed fear of behaving incorrectly, which could lead to a sense of insecurity, thereby impeding further communication. As partners of gay patients, informants felt that they had to deal with heterosexual assumptions more than they did when they were patients, and the consequences were feelings of not being accepted as a 'true' relative, of exclusion and neglect. Almost all participants offered recommendations about how nursing staff could facilitate communication. Heterosexual norms communicated unconsciously by nursing staff contribute to ambivalent attitudes and feelings of insecurity that prevent communication and easily lead to misconceptions. Educational and management interventions, as well as increased communication, could make gay people more visible and thereby encourage openness and awareness by hospital staff of the norms that they

Production Costs of Alternative Transportation Fuels. Influence of Crude Oil Price and Technology Maturity

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Cazzola, Pierpaolo; Morrison, Geoff; Kaneko, Hiroyuki; Cuenot, Francois; Ghandi, Abbas; Fulton, Lewis

2013-07-01

This study examines the production costs of a range of transport fuels and energy carriers under varying crude oil price assumptions and technology market maturation levels. An engineering ''bottom-up'' approach is used to estimate the effect of the input cost of oil and of various technological assumptions on the finished price of these fuels. In total, the production costs of 20 fuels are examined for crude oil prices between USD 60 and USD 150 per barrel. Some fuel pathways can be competitive with oil as their production, transport and storage technology matures, and as oil price increases. Rising oil prices will offer new opportunities to switch to alternative fuels for transport, to diversify the energy mix of the transport sector, and to reduce the exposure of the whole system to price volatility and potential distuption of supply. In a time of uncertainty about the leading vehicle technology to decarbonize the transport sector, looking at the fuel cost brings key information to be considered to keep mobility affordable yet sustainable.

Conservation: Toward firmer ground

Science.gov (United States)

1975-01-01

The following aspects of energy conservation were reviewed in order to place the problems in proper perspective: history and goals, conservation accounting-criteria, and a method to overcome obstacles. The effect of changing prices and available supplies of energy sources and their causes on consumption levels during the last few decades were described. Some examples of attainable conservation goals were listed and justified. A number of specific criteria applicable to conservation accounting were given. Finally, a discussion was presented to relate together the following aspects of energy conservation: widespread impact, involvement of government, industry, politics, moral and ethical aspects, urgency and time element.

Predicting salt intrusion into freshwater aquifers resulting from CO2 injection – A study on the influence of conservative assumptions

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Walter, Lena; Binning, Philip John; Class, Holger

2013-01-01

. A crucial task is to choose an appropriate conceptual model and relevant scenarios. Overly conservative assumptions may lead to estimation of unacceptably high risks, and thus prevent the implementation of a CO2 storage project unnecessarily. On the other hand, risk assessment should not lead...... to an underestimation of hazards. This study compares two conceptual model approaches for the numerical simulation of brine-migration scenarios through a vertical fault and salt intrusion into a fresh water aquifer. The first approach calculates salt discharge into freshwater using an immiscible two-phase model...... with constant salinity in the brine phase. The second approach takes compositional effects into account and considers salinity as a variable parameter in the water phase. A spatial model coupling is introduced to adapt the increased model complexity to the required complexity of the physics. The immiscible two...

Parity non-conserving effects in neutron-nucleus scattering

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Desplanques, B.

1990-01-01

The present lecture reviews the motivations which led to study the contribution of the neutron-nucleus component to parity-non-conserving effects observed in medium-heavy nuclei and considers its present status. It is shown that it cannot account for those experimental data. The order interpretation of these effects, which cannot lead to precise statements, is schematically described

Considering extraction constraints in long-term oil price modelling

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Rehrl, Tobias; Friedrich, Rainer; Voss, Alfred

2005-12-15

paths endogenously from OPEC's intertemporally optimal cartel behaviour. Thereby OPEC is faced with both the price-dependent production of the non-OPEC competitive fringe and the price-dependent world oil demand. World oil demand is modelled with a constant price elasticity function and refers to a scenario from ACROPOLIS-POLES. LOPEX results show, that the OPEC optimum - because of the cartel behaviour - depends much more on the present market situations than on intertemporal considerations. This qualifies the a priori assumption of perfect market foresight, tending to a more myopic decision making from OPEC. The results indicate that OPEC may have acted quite optimal since the seventies, at least in a ten-years average. LOPEX calculates a significant higher oil price from around 2020 onwards compared to the reference scenario, and a stagnating market share of maximal 50 % to be optimal for OPEC. (Author)

Considering extraction constraints in long-term oil price modelling

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rehrl, Tobias; Friedrich, Rainer; Voss, Alfred

2005-01-01

paths endogenously from OPEC's intertemporally optimal cartel behaviour. Thereby OPEC is faced with both the price-dependent production of the non-OPEC competitive fringe and the price-dependent world oil demand. World oil demand is modelled with a constant price elasticity function and refers to a scenario from ACROPOLIS-POLES. LOPEX results show, that the OPEC optimum - because of the cartel behaviour - depends much more on the present market situations than on intertemporal considerations. This qualifies the a priori assumption of perfect market foresight, tending to a more myopic decision making from OPEC. The results indicate that OPEC may have acted quite optimal since the seventies, at least in a ten-years average. LOPEX calculates a significant higher oil price from around 2020 onwards compared to the reference scenario, and a stagnating market share of maximal 50 % to be optimal for OPEC. (Author)

Symmetries and conservation laws in non-Hermitian field theories

Science.gov (United States)

Alexandre, Jean; Millington, Peter; Seynaeve, Dries

2017-09-01

Anti-Hermitian mass terms are considered, in addition to Hermitian ones, for P T -symmetric complex-scalar and fermionic field theories. In both cases, the Lagrangian can be written in a manifestly symmetric form in terms of the P T -conjugate variables, allowing for an unambiguous definition of the equations of motion. After discussing the resulting constraints on the consistency of the variational procedure, we show that the invariance of a non-Hermitian Lagrangian under a continuous symmetry transformation does not imply the existence of a corresponding conserved current. Conserved currents exist, but these are associated with transformations under which the Lagrangian is not invariant and which reflect the well-known interpretation of P T -symmetric theories in terms of systems with gain and loss. A formal understanding of this unusual feature of non-Hermitian theories requires a careful treatment of Noether's theorem, and we give specific examples for illustration.

The Pricing of Vulnerable Options in a Fractional Brownian Motion Environment

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Chao Wang

2015-01-01

Full Text Available Under the assumption of the stock price, interest rate, and default intensity obeying the stochastic differential equation driven by fractional Brownian motion, the jump-diffusion model is established for the financial market in fractional Brownian motion setting. With the changes of measures, the traditional pricing method is simplified and the general pricing formula is obtained for the European vulnerable option with stochastic interest rate. At the same time, the explicit expression for it comes into being.

ARCH Models Efficiency Evaluation in Prediction and Poultry Price Process Formation

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Behzad Fakari Sardehae

2016-09-01

. This study shows that the heterogeneous variance exists in error term and indicated by LM-test. Results and Discussion: Results showed that stationary test of the poultry price has a unit root and is stationary with one lag difference, and thus the price of poultry was used in the study by one lag difference. Main results showed that ARCH is the best model for fluctuation prediction. Moreover, news has asymmetric effect on poultry price fluctuation and good news has a stronger effect on poultry price fluctuation than bad news and leverage effect doesnot existin poultry price. Moreover current fluctuation does not transmit to future. One of the main assumptions of time series models is constant variance in estimated coefficients. If this assumption has not been, the estimated coefficients for the correlation between the serial data would be biased and results in wrong interpretation. The results showed that ARCH effects existed in error terms of poultry price and so the ARCH family with student t distribution should be used. Normality test of error term and exam of heterogeneous variance needed and lack of attention to its cause false conclusion. Result showed that ARCH models have good predictive power and ARMA models are less efficient than ARCH models. It shows that non-linear predictions are better than linear prediction. According to the results that student distribution should be used as target distribution in estimated patterns. Conclusion: Huge need for poultry, require the creation of infrastructure to response to demands. Results showed that change in poultry price volatility over time, may intensifies at anytime. The asymmetric effect of good and bad news in poultry price leading to consumer's reaction. The good news had significant effects on the poultry market and created positive change in the poultry price, but the bad news did not result insignificant effects. In fact, because the poultry product in the household portfolio is essential, it should not

Energy conservation in nationalised transportation sector

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Sinha, R C

1980-01-01

About 60% of high speed diesel is consumed by the road transport industry. The hike in fuel prices calls for urgent measures to conserve diesel. The paper discusses the various measures undertaken to conserve diesel in the nationalized transport sector.

Electricity wholesale market prices in Europe: Convergence?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zachmann, Georg

2008-01-01

This paper tests the hypothesis that the ongoing restructuring process in the European electricity sector has led to a common European market for electricity. Based on a Principal Component Analysis (PCA) of wholesale electricity prices in 2002-2006, we reject the assumption of full market integration. For several pairs of countries, the weaker hypothesis of (bilateral) convergence is accepted based on unit root tests (KPSS and ADF) and a convergence test based on filtered pairwise price relations. This indicates that the efforts to develop a single European market for electricity were so far only partially successful. We show that the daily auction prices of scarce cross-border transmission capacities are insufficient to explain the persistence of international price differentials. Empirically, our findings confirm the insufficiency of explicit capacity auctions as stated in the theoretical literature. (author)

Calculations for BDAS Setpoint with Non-conservative Boron Dilution Analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lee, Hwan Soo; Shin, Ho Cheol; Kim, Yong Bae

2014-01-01

BDAS (Boron Dilution Alarm System) utilizes the ex-core detector instrumentation signals to detect a possible inadvertent boron dilution event during operation mode 3, 4, 5, 6. For boron dilution analysis, discrepancies in the active coolant volume and the assumed linearity of the ex-core instrumentation response were identified for CE type PWR and they were reported by NASL-04-02 These discrepancies have potential to impact to determine BDAS setpoint in a non-conservative manner Therefore, in this study, the calculation of BDAS setpoint with those discrepancies condition about OPR1000 was performed and analyzed for checking the safety of BDAS. The new BDAS setpoint is calculated with conservative condition which recommended from Westinghouse Electric Company. The setpoint of BDAS using non-linear ICRR curve decrease to about 5% compared to the setpoint of that using linear ICRR curve. And this effect of the non-linearity is to slightly delay the boron dilution alarm during the inadvertence boron dilution at mode 3, 4, and 5

An uncertainty inclusive un-mixing model to identify tracer non-conservativeness

Science.gov (United States)

Sherriff, Sophie; Rowan, John; Franks, Stewart; Fenton, Owen; Jordan, Phil; hUallacháin, Daire Ó.

2015-04-01

Sediment fingerprinting is being increasingly recognised as an essential tool for catchment soil and water management. Selected physico-chemical properties (tracers) of soils and river sediments are used in a statistically-based 'un-mixing' model to apportion sediment delivered to the catchment outlet (target) to its upstream sediment sources. Development of uncertainty-inclusive approaches, taking into account uncertainties in the sampling, measurement and statistical un-mixing, are improving the robustness of results. However, methodological challenges remain including issues of particle size and organic matter selectivity and non-conservative behaviour of tracers - relating to biogeochemical transformations along the transport pathway. This study builds on our earlier uncertainty-inclusive approach (FR2000) to detect and assess the impact of tracer non-conservativeness using synthetic data before applying these lessons to new field data from Ireland. Un-mixing was conducted on 'pristine' and 'corrupted' synthetic datasets containing three to fifty tracers (in the corrupted dataset one target tracer value was manually corrupted to replicate non-conservative behaviour). Additionally, a smaller corrupted dataset was un-mixed using a permutation version of the algorithm. Field data was collected in an 11 km2 river catchment in Ireland. Source samples were collected from topsoils, subsoils, channel banks, open field drains, damaged road verges and farm tracks. Target samples were collected using time integrated suspended sediment samplers at the catchment outlet at 6-12 week intervals from July 2012 to June 2013. Samples were dried (affected whereas uncertainty was only marginally impacted by the corrupted tracer. Improvement of uncertainty resulted from increasing the number of tracers in both the perfect and corrupted datasets. FR2000 was capable of detecting non-conservative tracer behaviour within the range of mean source values, therefore, it provided a more

Pricing emission permits in the absence of abatement

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hintermann, Beat

2012-01-01

If emissions are stochastic and firms are unable to control them through abatement, the cap in a permit market may be exceeded, or not be reached. I derive a binary options pricing formula that expresses the permit price as a function of the penalty for noncompliance and the probability of an exceeded cap under the assumption of no abatement. I apply my model to the EU ETS, where the rapid introduction of the market made it difficult for firms to adjust their production technology in time for the first phase. The model fits the data well, implying that the permit price may have been driven by firms hedging against stochastic emissions.

Price determination for hydrogen produced from bio-ethanol in Argentina

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gregorini, V.A.; Pasquevich, D.; Laborde, M.

2010-01-01

A massive penetration for hydrogen as a fuel vector requires a price reduction against fossil fuels (up to lower or at less equal to current prices). That is why it is important to calculate the current prices, so that we can determinate the gap between them and work in reducing them. In order to follow properly prices evolution it is necessary been able to compare data generated by Universities, Laboratories and Industries. So that, DOE creates in 2003 a tool (H2A) to determine prices for hydrogen, with some assumptions and pre defined values, to facilitate transparency and consistency of data. In this work we will use the H2A tool to calculate de price of hydrogen produced in a bio-ethanol semi-industrial Plant in Argentina, and we will compare it with the prices of USA studies. (author)

Immigrant language barriers and house prices

OpenAIRE

Fischer, Andreas M.

2011-01-01

Are language skills important in explaining the nexus between house prices and immigrant inflows? The language barrier hypothesis says immigrants from a non common language country value amenities more than immigrants from common language countries.> ; In turn, immigrants from non common language countries are less price sensitive to house price changes than immigrants from a common language country. Tests of the language barrier hypothesis with Swiss house prices show that an immigration inf...

A queueing theory description of fat-tailed price returns in imperfect financial markets

Science.gov (United States)

Lamba, H.

2010-09-01

In a financial market, for agents with long investment horizons or at times of severe market stress, it is often changes in the asset price that act as the trigger for transactions or shifts in investment position. This suggests the use of price thresholds to simulate agent behavior over much longer timescales than are currently used in models of order-books. We show that many phenomena, routinely ignored in efficient market theory, can be systematically introduced into an otherwise efficient market, resulting in models that robustly replicate the most important stylized facts. We then demonstrate a close link between such threshold models and queueing theory, with large price changes corresponding to the busy periods of a single-server queue. The distribution of the busy periods is known to have excess kurtosis and non-exponential decay under various assumptions on the queue parameters. Such an approach may prove useful in the development of mathematical models for rapid deleveraging and panics in financial markets, and the stress-testing of financial institutions.

Modeling the choice to switch from fuelwood to electricity. Implications for giant panda habitat conservation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

An, Li; Liu, Jianguo; Linderman, Marc A.; Lupi, Frank; Huang, Jinyan

2002-01-01

Despite its status as a nature reserve, Wolong Nature Reserve (China) has experienced continued loss of giant panda habitat due to human activities such as fuelwood collection. Electricity, though available throughout Wolong, has not replaced fuelwood as an energy source. We used stated preference data obtained from in-person interviews to estimate a random utility model of the choice of adopting electricity for cooking and heating. Willingness to switch to electricity was explained by demographic and electricity factors (price, voltage, and outage frequency). In addition to price, non-price factors such as voltage and outage frequency significantly affect the demand. Thus, lowering electricity prices and increasing electricity quality would encourage local residents to switch from fuelwood to electricity and should be considered in the mix of policies to promote conservation of panda habitat

Modeling the choice to switch from fuelwood to electricity. Implications for giant panda habitat conservation

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

An, Li; Liu, Jianguo; Linderman, Marc A. [Department of Fisheries and Wildlife, Michigan State University, 13 Natural Resources Building, 48824 East Lansing, MI (United States); Lupi, Frank [Departments of Agricultural Economics and Fisheries and Wildlife, Michigan State University, 213F Agriculture Hall, 48824 East Lansing, MI (United States); Huang, Jinyan [Wolong Nature Reserve Administration, Wenchuan County, 623002 Sichuan Province (China)

2002-09-01

Despite its status as a nature reserve, Wolong Nature Reserve (China) has experienced continued loss of giant panda habitat due to human activities such as fuelwood collection. Electricity, though available throughout Wolong, has not replaced fuelwood as an energy source. We used stated preference data obtained from in-person interviews to estimate a random utility model of the choice of adopting electricity for cooking and heating. Willingness to switch to electricity was explained by demographic and electricity factors (price, voltage, and outage frequency). In addition to price, non-price factors such as voltage and outage frequency significantly affect the demand. Thus, lowering electricity prices and increasing electricity quality would encourage local residents to switch from fuelwood to electricity and should be considered in the mix of policies to promote conservation of panda habitat.

A national survey on availability, price and affordability of selected essential medicines for non communicable diseases in Sri Lanka.

Science.gov (United States)

Dabare, Panthihage Ruvini L; Wanigatunge, Chandanie A; Beneragama, Bvs Hemantha

2014-08-08

Access to medicines is a universal right. Low availability and low affordability of medicines are issues that deny this right to a significant proportion of the world population. The objective of this study was to determine the availability, price and affordability of essential medicines prescribed to treat non communicable diseases in Sri Lanka. Methodology was based on the 2nd edition of the World Health Organization Health Action International Manual. A country survey was conducted and facilities representing both public and private pharmacies were selected. A total of 109 facilities was surveyed. At each facility data on the availability and prices of 50 essential medicines for non communicable diseases were collected. Percentage availability, median price of originator brand and lowest priced generic, median price ratio to the International Reference Price were calculated for surveyed medicines. Affordability was determined using the daily incomes of the lowest--paid unskilled government worker. Semi government community pharmacies had the highest (>80%) availability while outdoor pharmacies of public health care facilities, private pharmacies and outdoor pharmacies of private hospital showed a fairly high availability (50 - 80%) of surveyed medicines.Unit price of 76% of selected individual medicines was less than ten Sri Lankan rupees. Out of these 28% of medicines cost less than one Sri Lanka rupee. For 21 of the surveyed medicines the median price ratio to the international reference price was less than one. The prices of originator brands for 14 surveyed medicines were more than five times that of the lowest price generics.Less than a single day's wages was adequate to purchase a month's supply of the lowest priced generic of more than 67% of surveyed medicines. The availability of selected essential medicines was fairly high in both public and private sectors in Sri Lanka. Most medicines are affordable to the lowest income earners in the community. There

The Pricing of Traffic Light Options and other Correlation Derivatives

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kokholm, Thomas

This paper considers the valuation of European style derivatives with payoffs depending on both a stock index and underlying LIBOR rates. The model has the attractive feature that it is based on observable market quantities which makes it very easy to calibrate. A closed form solution is derived...... for the price of the correlation derivative known as the traffic light option under lognormality assumptions for the underlying processes. A pricing approach for more general payoffs is presented, and an illustration is performed with Monte Carlo simulation by the pricing of a specific hybrid derivative...

A homotopy analysis method for the option pricing PDE in illiquid markets

Science.gov (United States)

E-Khatib, Youssef

2012-09-01

One of the shortcomings of the Black and Scholes model on option pricing is the assumption that trading the underlying asset does not affect the underlying asset price. This can happen in perfectly liquid markets and it is evidently not viable in markets with imperfect liquidity (illiquid markets). It is well-known that markets with imperfect liquidity are more realistic. Thus, the presence of price impact while studying options is very important. This paper investigates a solution for the option pricing PDE in illiquid markets using the homotopy analysis method.

Three essays on monetary policy responses to oil price shocks

Science.gov (United States)

Plante, Michael

-traded inflation produces a unique solution so long as the nominal interest rate is raised more than one for one with increases in non-traded inflation. A policy of stabilizing core inflation, however, produces a unique solution only if the response is greater than one for one and less then one divided by one minus the share of the non-traded good in the CPI. In the third chapter I consider monetary and fiscal policy responses to oil price shocks in a low income oil importing country. The model used in this chapter differs from the model in the second chapter in that there is currency substitution, household demand for oil products, and a potential subsidy on the purchase of oil products by households. I examine the dynamic properties and the welfare implications of a set of inflation targeting policies and a group of policies that subsidize the price of oil and finance the subsidy through a combination of raising lump sum taxes and printing money. The dynamic properties of the inflation targeting policies are similar in many regards to those in the second chapter as the key assumptions driving the results are the same in the two models. For the policies which subsidize the price of oil I show that both the choice to have the subsidy and how to finance it matter a great deal for the behavior of the macroeconomic variables. In terms of welfare, for most calibrations there are only minor differences between the inflation targeting polices, the policy with a subsidy funded by lump sum taxes, and the baseline policy with no subsidy. The policy with a subsidy financed by the inflation tax generally causes significant welfare losses compared to the policy with no pass through.

Statistical Studies of Non-price Competition in the Structure of Public Procurement in the Russian Federation

OpenAIRE

Svetlana Aleksandrovna Sergeeva; Alexander Alexandrovich Arionchik

2016-01-01

The principle of securing competition is one of the basic principles of the contract system in public procurement in the Russian Federation. The law on the contract system in procurement stipulates that the contract system in procurement is aimed at creating equal conditions to ensure competition between the parties to procurement. An important aspect is that the competition for procurement should be based on compliance with the principle of fair price and non-price competition. The purpose o...

Stationarity changes in long-run energy commodity prices

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zaklan, Aleksandar; Abrell, Jan; Neumann, Anne

2016-01-01

Situated at the intersection of the literatures on speculative storage and non-renewable commodity scarcity, this paper considers whether changes in persistence have occurred in long-run U.S. prices of the energy commodities crude oil, natural gas and bituminous coal. We allow for a structural break when testing for a break in persistence to avoid a change in the stochastic properties of prices being confounded by an unaccounted-for deterministic shift in the price series. We find that coal prices are trend stationary throughout their evolution and that oil prices change from stationarity to non-stationarity in the decade between the late 1960s to late 1970s. The result on gas prices is ambiguous. Our results demonstrate the importance of accounting for a possible structural shift when testing for breaks in persistence, while being robust to the exact date of the structural break. Based on our analysis we caution against viewing long-run energy commodity prices as being non-stationary and conclude in favor of modeling commodity market fundamentals as stationary, meaning that speculative storage will tend to have a dampening effect on prices. We also cannot reject that long-run prices of coal and, with some hesitation, gas follow a Hotelling-type rule. In contrast, we reject the Hotelling rule for oil prices since the late 1960s/early 1970s. - Highlights: • This paper contributes to the literatures on speculative storage and scarcity. • We test if long-run U.S. coal, oil and gas prices became non-stationary. • We pre-test for structural breaks when testing for changes in persistence. • Coal prices are found to be trend stationary, oil prices become non-stationary. • We caution against modeling commodity market fundamentals as non-stationary.

Tuition Pricing and Aid Strategies: A Practical Approach. AIR 1994 Annual Forum Paper.

Science.gov (United States)

Fine, Paul L.

This paper examines the applicability of net tuition revenue models for a highly selective, elite priced, private research university in the southern U.S. Pricing and aid strategies for this university seem to be driven by intuitive assumptions about the economy, market forces, needs-blind admissions, student satisfaction, net price…

Parity non-conserving effects in thermal neutron-deuteron radiative capture

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Desplanques, B.

1985-01-01

Predictions of parity non-conserving effects in thermal neutron-deuteron radiative capture are presented. The sensitivity of the results to models of the strong interaction as well as the validity of approximations made in previous calculations are discussed

Meeting competition through negotiated pricing

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Keith, D.M.; Raper, J.W.

1990-01-01

A fundamental premise of negotiated pricing as a demand-side management (DSM) tool is that price determines cost. As the ultimate objective of energy efficiency is to increase electromotive work while conserving resources, negotiated prices can have a significant impact as a DSM tool to force costs down. Three examples are offered of the effect of negotiated pricing as a DSM tool. The examples are a small hydroelectric company and an electric utility authority owned, a utility-to-customer example of negotiated pricing with the Public Service Company of Oklahoma's (PSO) system, and a large paper mill on PSO's system. Some of the major problems associated with negotiated pricing, outside of the human effort of finding and training knowledgeable and skilled negotiators, are: obtaining enough information about the customer or potential customer to be able to determine that in negotiating prices the utility is not giving away more benefits than the utility will gain; developing a pricing plan that fits both the customer's and utility's existing and potential future mode of operation; assuring that other customers who cannot negotiate on their own behalf are not adversely affected by utility revenue shortfalls; making such negotiated prices available to all similarly situated customers, so as not to inadvertently create unfair competitive advantages among them; and defining the shared benefits before and after the fact as a result of having negotiated prices in the first place

Estimating the option value of a non-firm electricity tariff

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Moore, J.; Horii, B.; Price, S.; Olson, A.; Woo, C.K.

2010-01-01

We estimate the option value of a non-firm electricity tariff commonly used by a local distribution company (LDC) in its electricity demand response program. This option value captures the benefit that a LDC enjoys from not serving an end-use load during high-price hours in a wholesale electricity market. It is conservative in that it does not include the cost savings in meeting the LDC's resource adequacy requirement or deferring transmission and distribution (T and D) investments necessary for delivering reliable service. Illustrated by a Northern California example, our two-pronged approach entails (a) a set of summer monthly market price regressions to forecast daily spot price distributions that incorporate uncertainty in natural gas price and weather; and (b) a simulation exercise to quantify the tariff's value under a specific design. The results indicate that a non-firm service tariff can have varying option value estimates that are highly sensitive to the tariff's design, and that an incentive payment based on the option value alone is likely insufficient to attract customer participation in a non-firm service program. (author)

Timber value—a matter of choice: a study of how end use assumptions affect timber values.

Science.gov (United States)

John H. Beuter

1971-01-01

The relationship between estimated timber values and actual timber prices is discussed. Timber values are related to how, where, and when the timber is used. An analysis demonstrates the relative values of a typical Douglas-fir stand under assumptions about timber use.

Occupancy estimation and the closure assumption

Science.gov (United States)

Rota, Christopher T.; Fletcher, Robert J.; Dorazio, Robert M.; Betts, Matthew G.

2009-01-01

the closure assumption in both sampling designs and analysis. Furthermore, inappropriately applying closed models could have negative consequences when monitoring rare or declining species for conservation and management decisions, because violations of closure typically lead to overestimates of the probability of occurrence.

Understanding the threats posed by non-native species: public vs. conservation managers.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Rodolphe E Gozlan

Full Text Available Public perception is a key factor influencing current conservation policy. Therefore, it is important to determine the influence of the public, end-users and scientists on the prioritisation of conservation issues and the direct implications for policy makers. Here, we assessed public attitudes and the perception of conservation managers to five non-native species in the UK, with these supplemented by those of an ecosystem user, freshwater anglers. We found that threat perception was not influenced by the volume of scientific research or by the actual threats posed by the specific non-native species. Media interest also reflected public perception and vice versa. Anglers were most concerned with perceived threats to their recreational activities but their concerns did not correspond to the greatest demonstrated ecological threat. The perception of conservation managers was an amalgamation of public and angler opinions but was mismatched to quantified ecological risks of the species. As this suggests that invasive species management in the UK is vulnerable to a knowledge gap, researchers must consider the intrinsic characteristics of their study species to determine whether raising public perception will be effective. The case study of the topmouth gudgeon Pseudorasbora parva reveals that media pressure and political debate has greater capacity to ignite policy changes and impact studies on non-native species than scientific evidence alone.

Valuation Struggles over Pricing

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Pallesen, Trine

2016-01-01

of creating political markets, and political prices, here understood as market distortion. This paper studies the ‘politics’ of pricing by following the adoption of the first feed-in tariff in France. Pricing as a way of achieving non-economic ends, such as climate mitigation, brings the values of several...... public goods into play, all the while prompting a translation of these values into a single price. Following the struggles over the pricing of wind power in the early 2000s, the study illustrates that rather than a pollution of the market sphere by that of politics, a politics of pricing can be observed...

The impact of luxury brand identity on product pricing policy

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Wioleta Dryl

2013-12-01

Full Text Available Basing the luxury product pricing policy, only on the assumption that the price has to be the highest amount a client is willing to pay, poses a number of challenges in front of enterprise. The consumer of the luxury product is very aware of his needs and expectations. He is ready to pay a higher price for the product, but is expecting to return, very specific values. Relying luxury brand strategy, only on high-priced, without enrichment offer to a sufficiently high level leads to market failure. The justification for the high price of the product may, however, be defined brand image, which is a consequence of appropriate policies shaping its identity. In the case of luxury goods, especially essential tool proves to be the emotional component of the brand identity.

Is College Pricing Power Pro-Cyclical?

Science.gov (United States)

Altringer, Levi; Summers, Jeffrey

2015-01-01

We define pricing power as a college's ability to increase its net tuition revenue by raising its sticker-price for tuition. The greater is the positive effect of sticker-price increases on net tuition revenue, the greater is the pricing power. We gauge variation in the pricing power of private, non-profit baccalaureate colleges by estimating this…

Endogenous Market-Clearing Prices and Reference Point Adaptation

Science.gov (United States)

Dragicevic, Arnaud Z.

When prices depend on the submitted bids, i.e. with endogenous market-clearing prices in repeated-round auction mechanisms, the assumption of independent private values that underlines the property of incentive-compatibility is to be brought into question; even if these mechanisms provide active involvement and market learning. In its orthodox view, adaptive bidding behavior imperils incentive-compatibility. We relax the assumption of private values' independence in the repeated-round auctions, when the market-clearing prices are made public at the end of each round. Instead of using game-theory learning models, we introduce a behavioral model that shows that bidders bid according to the anchoring-and-adjustment heuristic, which neither ignores the rationality and incentive-compatibility constraints, nor rejects the posted prices issued from others' bids. Bidders simply weight information at their disposal and adjust their discovered value using reference points encoded in the sequential price weighting function. Our model says that bidders and offerers are sincere boundedly rational utility maximizers. It lies between evolutionary dynamics and adaptive heuristics and we model the concept of inertia as high weighting of the anchor, which stands for truthful bidding and high regard to freshly discovered preferences. Adjustment means adaptive rule based on adaptation of the reference point in the direction of the posted price. It helps a bidder to maximize her expected payoff, which is after all the only purpose that matters to rationality. The two components simply suggest that sincere bidders are boundedly rational. Furthermore, by deviating from their anchor in the direction of the public signal, bidders operate in a correlated equilibrium. The correlation between bids comes from the commonly observed history of play and each bidder's actions are determined by the history. Bidders are sincere if they have limited memory and confine their reference point adaptation

U.S., non-U.S. outlays to rise in '98, but oil price plunge clouds spending outlook

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Beck, R.J.

1998-01-01

Capital spending by oil and gas companies in and outside the US will rise in 1998, but that forecast may be jeopardized by the continuing plunge in oil prices. For operations in the US, oil and gas company capital spending is expected to move up in 1998 for the fourth year in a row. If the money is spent, it will be the highest industry investment level since 1985. Strong oil and gas prices and increased volumes have boosted company cash flow and profits the last few years, fueling increased spending. However, the near-term outlook has now been clouded by economic turmoil in a number of Asian countries and the recent collapse of oil prices. The paper discusses oil and gas prices, US upstream spending, US non-exploration and production spending, capital spending in Canada, and spending outside US and Canada

New Assumptions to Guide SETI Research

Science.gov (United States)

Colombano, S. P.

2018-01-01

The recent Kepler discoveries of Earth-like planets offer the opportunity to focus our attention on detecting signs of life and technology in specific planetary systems, but I feel we need to become more flexible in our assumptions. The reason is that, while it is still reasonable and conservative to assume that life is most likely to have originated in conditions similar to ours, the vast time differences in potential evolutions render the likelihood of "matching" technologies very slim. In light of these challenges I propose a more "aggressive"� approach to future SETI exploration in directions that until now have received little consideration.

Detecting the Spatially Non-Stationary Relationships between Housing Price and Its Determinants in China: Guide for Housing Market Sustainability

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yanchuan Mou

2017-10-01

Full Text Available Given the rapidly developing processes in the housing market of China, the significant regional difference in housing prices has become a serious issue that requires a further understanding of the underlying mechanisms. Most of the extant regression models are standard global modeling techniques that do not take spatial non-stationarity into consideration, thereby making them unable to reflect the spatial nature of the data and introducing significant bias into the prediction results. In this study, the geographically weighted regression model (GWR was applied to examine the local association between housing price and its potential determinants, which were selected in view of the housing supply and demand in 338 cities across mainland China. Non-stationary relationships were obtained, and such observation could be summarized as follows: (1 the associations between land price and housing price are all significant and positive yet having different magnitudes; (2 the relationship between supplied amount of residential land and housing price is not statistically significant for 272 of the 338 cities, thereby indicating that the adjustment of supplied land has a slight effect on housing price for most cities; and (3 the significance, direction, and magnitude of the relationships between the other three factors (i.e., urbanization rate, average wage of urban employees, proportion of renters and housing price vary across the 338 cities. Based on these findings, this paper discusses some key issues relating to the spatial variations, combined with local economic conditions and suggests housing regulation policies that could facilitate the sustainable development of the Chinese housing market.

Nonlinear Pricing with Random Participation

OpenAIRE

Jean-Charles Rochet; Lars A. Stole

2002-01-01

The canonical selection contracting programme takes the agent's participation decision as deterministic and finds the optimal contract, typically satisfying this constraint for the worst type. Upon weakening this assumption of known reservation values by introducing independent randomness into the agents' outside options, we find that some of the received wisdom from mechanism design and nonlinear pricing is not robust and the richer model which allows for stochastic participation affords a m...

The distribution of harm in price-fixing cases

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Boone, J.; Müller, W.

2012-01-01

We consider a vertically related industry and analyze how the total harm due to a price increase upstream is distributed over downstream firms and final consumers. For this purpose, we develop a general model without making specific assumptions regarding demand, costs, or the mode of competition. We

The Distribution of Harm in Price-Fixing Cases

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Boone, J.; Müller, W.

2008-01-01

Abstract: We consider a vertically related industry and analyze how the total harm due to a price increase upstream is distributed over downstream firms and final consumers. For this purpose, we develop a general model without making specific assumptions regarding demand, costs, or the mode of

The distribution of harm in price-fixing cases

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Boone, J.; Müller, W.

2008-01-01

We consider a vertically related industry and analyze how the total harm due to a price increase upstream is distributed over downstream firms and final consumers. For this purpose, we develop a general model without making specific assumptions regarding demand, costs, or the mode of competition. We

Interdependent demands, regulatory constraint, and peak-load pricing. [Assessment of Bailey's model

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Nguyen, D T; Macgregor-Reid, G J

1977-06-01

A model of a regulated firm which includes an analysis of peak-load pricing has been formulated by E. E. Bailey in which three alternative modes of regulation on a profit-maximizing firm are considered. The main conclusion reached is that under a regulation limiting the rate of return on capital investment, price reductions are received solely by peak-users and that when regulation limiting the profit per unit of output or the return on costs is imposed, there are price reductions for all users. Bailey has expressly assumed that the demands in different periods are interdependent but has somehow failed to derive the correct price and welfare implications of this empirically highly relevant assumption. Her conclusions would have been perfectly correct for marginal revenues but are quite incorrect for prices, even if her assumption that price exceeds marginal revenues in every period holds. This present paper derives fully and rigorously the implications of regulation for prices, outputs, capacity, and social welfare for a profit-maximizing firm with interdependent demands. In section II, Bailey's model is reproduced and the optimal conditions are given. In section III, it is demonstrated that under the conditions of interdependent demands assumed by Bailey herself, her often-quoted conclusion concerning the effects of the return-on-investment regulation on the off-peak price is invalid. In section IV, the effects of the return-on-investment regulation on the optimal prices, outputs, capacity, and social welfare both for the case in which the demands in different periods are substitutes and for the case in which they are complements are examined. In section V, the pricing and welfare implications of the return-on-investment regulation are compared with the two other modes of regulation considered by Bailey. Section VI is a summary of all sections. (MCW)

Price elasticity estimates for tobacco products in India.

Science.gov (United States)

John, Rijo M

2008-05-01

The tax base of tobacco in India is heavily dependent on about 14% of tobacco users, who smoke cigarettes. Non-cigarette tobacco products accounting for 85% of the tobacco consumption contributes only 15% of the total tobacco taxes. Though taxation is an important tool to regulate consumption of tobacco, there have been no estimates of price elasticities for different tobacco products in India to date, which can guide tax policy on tobacco. This paper, for the first time in India, examines the price elasticity of demand for bidis, cigarettes and leaf tobacco at the national level using a representative cross-section of households. This study found that own-price elasticity estimates of different tobacco products in India ranged between -0.4 to -0.9, with bidis (an indigenous hand-rolled smoked tobacco preparation in India) and leaf tobacco having elasticities close to unity. Cigarettes were the least price elastic of all. With some assumptions, it is shown that the tax on bidis can be increased to Rs. 100 per 1000 sticks compared with the current Rs. 14 and the tax on an average cigarette can be increased to Rs. 3.5 per stick without any fear of losing revenue. The paper argues that the current system of taxing cigarettes in India based on the presence of filters and the length of cigarettes has no justification on health grounds, and should be abolished, if reducing tobacco consumption and the consequent disease burden is one of the objectives of tobacco taxation policy. It also argues that attempts to regulate tobacco use without effecting significant tax increases on bidis may not produce desired results.

A history of prices in Canada, 1840-1871: a new wholesale price index

OpenAIRE

Donald G. Paterson; Ronald A. Shearer

2003-01-01

We present a new monthly wholesale price index for Canada, 1840-71, comparing fluctuations in the Canadian macroeconomy with fluctuations in similar U.S. and British indexes. Canadian prices move through distinct phases: the 1840s rise in prices and the decline in the depression of 1848-49; the mid-century economic boom and the 1857 depression; U.S. Civil War inflation and apparent Canadian price insulation through a flexible exchange rate created by U.S. withdrawal from gold; and the non-inf...

Avoidance of singularity and global non-conservation of energy in general relativity

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Verma, M.M.

2009-06-01

We show that the singularity in the General Theory of Relativity (GTR) is the expression of a non-Machian feature. It can be avoided with a scale-invariant dynamical theory, a property lacking in GTR. It is further argued that the global non-conservation of energy in GTR also results from the lack of scale-invariance, and the field formulation presented by several authors can only partly resolve the problem. Assuming the global energy conservation, we propose a negative energy density component with a positive equation of state that can drive the late-time acceleration in the universe, while the positive component confines to smaller scales. (author)

Food pricing strategies, population diets, and non-communicable disease: a systematic review of simulation studies.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Helen Eyles

Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Food pricing strategies have been proposed to encourage healthy eating habits, which may in turn help stem global increases in non-communicable diseases. This systematic review of simulation studies investigates the estimated association between food pricing strategies and changes in food purchases or intakes (consumption (objective 1; Health and disease outcomes (objective 2, and whether there are any differences in these outcomes by socio-economic group (objective 3. METHODS AND FINDINGS: Electronic databases, Internet search engines, and bibliographies of included studies were searched for articles published in English between 1 January 1990 and 24 October 2011 for countries in the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development. Where ≥ 3 studies examined the same pricing strategy and consumption (purchases or intake or health outcome, results were pooled, and a mean own-price elasticity (own-PE estimated (the own-PE represents the change in demand with a 1% change in price of that good. Objective 1: pooled estimates were possible for the following: (1 taxes on carbonated soft drinks: own-PE (n  =  4 studies, -0.93 (range, -0.06, -2.43, and a modelled -0.02% (-0.01%, -0.04% reduction in energy (calorie intake for each 1% price increase (n  =  3 studies; (2 taxes on saturated fat: -0.02% (-0.01%, -0.04% reduction in energy intake from saturated fat per 1% price increase (n  =  5 studies; and (3 subsidies on fruits and vegetables: own-PE (n = 3 studies, -0.35 (-0.21, -0.77. Objectives 2 and 3: variability of food pricing strategies and outcomes prevented pooled analyses, although higher quality studies suggested unintended compensatory purchasing that could result in overall effects being counter to health. Eleven of 14 studies evaluating lower socio-economic groups estimated that food pricing strategies would be associated with pro-health outcomes. Food pricing strategies also have the potential to reduce

Pricing and Hedging Quanto Options in Energy Markets

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Benth, Fred Espen; Lange, Nina; Myklebust, Tor Åge

approach we derive a closed form option pricing formula for energy quanto options, under the assumption that the underlying assets are log-normally distributed. Our approach encompasses several interesting cases, such as geometric Brownian motions and multifactor spot models. We also derive delta and gamma......In energy markets, the use of quanto options have increased significantly in the recent years. The payoff from such options are typically written on an underlying energy index and a measure of temperature and are suited for managing the joint price and volume risk in energy markets. Using an HJM...... expressions for hedging. Furthermore, we illustrate the use of our model by an empirical pricing exercise using NYMEX traded natural gas futures and CME traded Heating Degree Days futures for New York....

On the Black-Scholes European Option Pricing Model Robustness and Generality

Science.gov (United States)

Takada, Hellinton Hatsuo; de Oliveira Siqueira, José

2008-11-01

The common presentation of the widely known and accepted Black-Scholes European option pricing model explicitly imposes some restrictions such as the geometric Brownian motion assumption for the underlying stock price. In this paper, these usual restrictions are relaxed using maximum entropy principle of information theory, Pearson's distribution system, market frictionless and risk-neutrality theories to the calculation of a unique risk-neutral probability measure calibrated with market parameters.

Conservation genetics of otters: Review about the use of non-invasive samples

OpenAIRE

Aristizábal Duque, Sandra L.; Orozco-Jiménez, Luz Y.; Zapata-Escobar, Carolina; Palacio-Baena, Jaime A.

2018-01-01

Abstract: Wild population management programs require determining some fundamental aspects for conservation, including population structure, flow between populations, evolutionary history and kinship, among others. Since sample collection from wild mammals for DNA extraction is a complex task, conservation genetics has developed non-invasive sampling techniques, which allow obtaining DNA without the need to capture individuals. For the genetic characterization of otter populations, stools are...

Lead lag relationships between futures and spot prices

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Asche, Frank; Guttormsen, Atle G

2002-01-01

In this paper we examine the relationship between spot and futures prices. This is traditionally done by testing for cointegration with the Engle and Granger methodology, before one specifies an error correction models in order to draw inference about causality. This approach, although appealing for its simplicity, is problematic on at least two accounts. First, the approach is only valid given an exogeneity assumption, which is what one wants to test, and second, given that there are several contracts with different times to expiration, bivariate specifications cannot capture all the relevant information. We show that both problems can be avoided if the tests are carried out in a multivariate framework like the Johansen test. An empirical application is carried out on futures prices for gas oil. Findings indicate that futures prices leads spot prices, and that futures contracts with longer time to expiration leads contracts with shorter time to expiration. (author)

Efficient "Myopic" Asset Pricing in General Equilibrium: A Potential Pitfall in Excess Volatility Tests

OpenAIRE

Willem H. Buiter

1987-01-01

Excess volatility tests for financial market efficiency maintain the hypothesis of risk-neutrality. This permits the specification of the benchmark efficient market price as the present discounted value of expected future dividends. By departing from the risk-neutrality assumption in a stripped-down version of Lucas's general equilibrium asset pricing model, I show that asset prices determined in a competitive asset market and efficient by construction can nevertheless violate the variance bo...

Socio-economic aspects of water conservation with reference to Pakistan

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Malik, A.H.

2005-01-01

To achieve optimum water conservation and improved water use efficiency, a water conservation enabling environment is needed that includes: 1. Education and training, improvement of management systems and public incentives: these measures allow increase from 20 to 30 % water resources .2. irrigation management transfer to users, management of supply infrastructure and an optimised resource policy to arrive at 60 to 80 % of the potential; 3. further research of the public and the private sector to utilise fully the whole available potential. Pakistan's water-resources have been diminishing at an alarming rate, due to further increase of population, per capita water availability in Pakistan goes down below 1,000 m/sup 3/, that means Pakistan is nearing conditions of chronic water-stress. The quality of water is also deteriorating with time. To improve the situation, potential of socio economic factors can be mobilized like population stabilization, community involvement, fair water distribution, application of water harvesting and water conservation at the community level, application of non- structural solutions, for example pricing of water, to develop water management institutions, public education and awareness are essential. Selection of appropriate low cost technology is a pre-requisite for widespread project implementation, planner should consider both traditional and modern technologies. The price of water determines largely the investments justified to avoid water losses. (author)

Macroeconomic variables and food price inflation, nonfood price inflation and overall inflation: A case of an emerging market

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Raphael T Mpofu

2017-03-01

Full Text Available The paper analyses the association between certain macroeconomic variables and food price inflation, non-food price inflation and overall inflation in Zimbabwe, and also seeks to determine the level of association between these variables, given food security implications and overall well-being of its citizens. The study reveals that during the 2010 to 2016 period, Zimbabwe experienced stable food prices—annual food price inflation for food and non-alcoholic beverages averaged a relatively low growth rate of 0.12% monthly, while non-food inflation monthly growth rate was 0.09% and overall inflation growth rate was 0.11%. Although inflation from 2010 had been declining, of late, the increase in annual inflation has been underpinned by a rise in non-food inflation. Zimbabwe’s annual inflation remains lower than inflation rates in other countries in the region. Despite the increases lately in overall inflation, it remained below zero in January 2016, mostly driven by the depreciation of the South African rand and declining international oil prices. It should also be noted that domestic demand continued to decline in 2015, leading to the observed decline in both food and non-food prices. While food inflation has remained relatively low, it should be noted that non-food expenditures is significant component of the household budget and the rising prices result often lead to declining purchasing power and force households to make difficult choices in terms of their purchases. The findings of the study are food inflation has a low association with the independent variables under study; Zimbabwe broad money supply, rand-dollar exchange rates and the South Africa food inflation. There is, however, a very strong association between non-food inflation and these independent variables, as well as between overall inflation and the independent variables. Given the mostly rural population and the high level of unemployment in Zimbabwe, it can be surmised that

Consequences for option pricing of a long memory in volatility

OpenAIRE

Taylor, S J

2001-01-01

The economic consequences of a long memory assumption about volatility are documented, by comparing implied volatilities for option prices obtained from short and long memory volatility processes. Numerical results are given for options on the S&P 100 index from 1984 to 1998, with lives up to two years. The long memory assumption is found to have a significant impact upon the term structure of implied volatilities and a relatively minor impact upon smile effects. These conclusions are importa...

Manufacturer's pricing strategies in cooperative and non-cooperative advertising supply chain under retail competition

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

B. C. Giri

2014-06-01

Full Text Available This article studies the manufacturer's pricing strategy in a supply chain with a single manufacturer and two competing retailers. The manufacturer, as a Stackelberg leader specifies wholesale prices to two retailers who face advertisement dependent demand. Based on this gaming structure, two mathematical models are developed - the cooperative advertising model where manufacturer shares a fraction of retailers' advertising costs and the non-cooperative advertising model where manufacturer does not share any retailer's advertising expenses. The optimal strategies of the manufacturer and retailers are determined and a numerical example is taken to illustrate the theoretical results derived. We show that cooperative advertising policy is beneficial not only for the participating entities but also for the entire supply chain.

Carbon pricing, nuclear power and electricity markets

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Cameron, R.; Keppler, J. H. [OECD Nuclear Energy Agency, 12, boulevard des Iles, 92130 Issy-les-Moulineaux (France)

2012-07-01

In 2010, the NEA in conjunction with the International Energy Agency produced an analysis of the Projected Costs of Electricity for almost 200 power plants, covering nuclear, fossil fuel and renewable electricity generation. That analysis used lifetime costs to consider the merits of each technology. However, the lifetime cost analysis is less applicable in liberalised markets and does not look specifically at the viewpoint of the private investor. A follow-up NEA assessment of the competitiveness of nuclear energy against coal- and gas-fired generation under carbon pricing has considered just this question. The economic competition in electricity markets is today between nuclear energy and gas-fired power generation, with coal-fired power generation not being competitive as soon as even modest carbon pricing is introduced. Whether nuclear energy or natural gas comes out ahead in their competition depends on a number of assumptions, which, while all entirely reasonable, yield very different outcomes. The analysis in this study has been developed on the basis of daily data from European power markets over the last five-year period. Three different methodologies, a Profit Analysis looking at historic returns over the past five years, an Investment Analysis projecting the conditions of the past five years over the lifetime of plants and a Carbon Tax Analysis (differentiating the Investment Analysis for different carbon prices) look at the issue of competitiveness from different angles. They show that the competitiveness of nuclear energy depends on a number of variables which in different configurations determine whether electricity produced from nuclear power or from CCGTs generates higher profits for its investors. These are overnight costs, financing costs, gas prices, carbon prices, profit margins (or mark-ups), the amount of coal with carbon capture and electricity prices. This paper will present the outcomes of the analysis in the context of a liberalised

Carbon pricing, nuclear power and electricity markets

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cameron, R.; Keppler, J. H.

2012-01-01

In 2010, the NEA in conjunction with the International Energy Agency produced an analysis of the Projected Costs of Electricity for almost 200 power plants, covering nuclear, fossil fuel and renewable electricity generation. That analysis used lifetime costs to consider the merits of each technology. However, the lifetime cost analysis is less applicable in liberalised markets and does not look specifically at the viewpoint of the private investor. A follow-up NEA assessment of the competitiveness of nuclear energy against coal- and gas-fired generation under carbon pricing has considered just this question. The economic competition in electricity markets is today between nuclear energy and gas-fired power generation, with coal-fired power generation not being competitive as soon as even modest carbon pricing is introduced. Whether nuclear energy or natural gas comes out ahead in their competition depends on a number of assumptions, which, while all entirely reasonable, yield very different outcomes. The analysis in this study has been developed on the basis of daily data from European power markets over the last five-year period. Three different methodologies, a Profit Analysis looking at historic returns over the past five years, an Investment Analysis projecting the conditions of the past five years over the lifetime of plants and a Carbon Tax Analysis (differentiating the Investment Analysis for different carbon prices) look at the issue of competitiveness from different angles. They show that the competitiveness of nuclear energy depends on a number of variables which in different configurations determine whether electricity produced from nuclear power or from CCGTs generates higher profits for its investors. These are overnight costs, financing costs, gas prices, carbon prices, profit margins (or mark-ups), the amount of coal with carbon capture and electricity prices. This paper will present the outcomes of the analysis in the context of a liberalised

A model for energy pricing with stochastic emission costs

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Elliott, Robert J.; Lyle, Matthew R.; Miao, Hong

2010-01-01

We use a supply-demand approach to value energy products exposed to emission cost uncertainty. We find closed form solutions for a number of popularly traded energy derivatives such as: forwards, European call options written on spot prices and European Call options written on forward contracts. Our modeling approach is to first construct noisy supply and demand processes and then equate them to find an equilibrium price. This approach is very general while still allowing for sensitivity analysis within a valuation setting. Our assumption is that, in the presence of emission costs, traditional supply growth will slow down causing output prices of energy products to become more costly over time. However, emission costs do not immediately cause output price appreciation, but instead expose individual projects, particularly those with high emission outputs, to much more extreme risks through the cost side of their profit stream. Our results have implications for hedging and pricing for producers operating in areas facing a stochastic emission cost environment. (author)

China on the move: Oil price explosion?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Skeer, Jeffrey; Wang Yanjia

2007-01-01

Rapid expansion of highway and jet traffic in China has created a surge of demand for oil products, putting pressure on world energy markets and petroleum product prices. This paper examines trends in freight and passenger traffic to assess how growth in China's transport demand relates to growth in China's economy, as well as the energy intensity of transport. Based on assumptions about demand elasticity and energy intensity, a range of scenarios is developed for China's oil demand through 2020. Incremental oil demand from China's transport sector is then compared with world oil demand projections to assess the likely impact on world oil prices. The finding is that new demand from China's transport sector would likely raise world oil prices in 2020 by 1-3% in reference scenarios or by 3-10% if oil supply investment is constrained

Field theory of absorbing phase transitions with a non-diffusive conserved field

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pastor-Satorras, R.; Vespignani, A.

2000-04-01

We investigate the critical behavior of a reaction-diffusion system exhibiting a continuous absorbing-state phase transition. The reaction-diffusion system strictly conserves the total density of particles, represented as a non-diffusive conserved field, and allows an infinite number of absorbing configurations. Numerical results show that it belongs to a wide universality class that also includes stochastic sandpile models. We derive microscopically the field theory representing this universality class. (author)

Pricing electricity for sustainability : climate change and Canada's electricity sector

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2010-01-01

The electricity sector is Canada's largest single source of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. This paper discussed electricity and carbon pricing approaches to reducing GHG emissions in the electricity sector. An overview of the links between electricity pricing and climate change was presented, and current and emerging trends in electricity pricing related to encouraging energy conservation were reviewed. Market prices and failures were discussed. Approaches to pricing electricity included an increase in block prices; time-of-use prices; demand-side management and energy efficiency; and carbon pricing in Canada and electricity pricing signals. The study showed that several provincial utilities in Canada are experimenting with market-based pricing approaches for electricity and carbon that may help to reduce GHG emissions over time. Concerns over electricity supply and the negative environmental impacts of electricity production may lead to the full social pricing of electricity in some regions of Canada. 46 refs., 3 tabs., 5 figs.

Electric power conservation in Brazil

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hollanda, J.B. de

1989-01-01

The Brazilian Electric Power Conservation Program (PROCEL) is discussed. The main objective of this program is the optimization of electric power use, including consideration about prices, technology development and legislation. (M.V.M.)

The pricing of firm bonds with extendable maturity by the reduced form approach

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

REN Xuemin

2012-10-01

Full Text Available We associate credit events with market rates to price firm bonds with extendable maturity.We deal with the credit risk by the reduced form approach and obtain the pricing formula for firm bonds with extendable maturity by the PDE approach under the assumption of stochastic interest rate and compare its return rate with that of ordinary firm bonds.

Oil prices: Breaks and trends

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Noguera, José

2013-01-01

This paper contributes to the literature of the stationarity of financial time series and the literature on oil and macroeconomics in several ways. First, it uses Kejriwal and Perron (2010) sequential procedure to endogenously determine multiple structural changes in real oil prices without facing the circular testing problem between structural changes and stationary assumptions of previous tests. Second, it performs a diagnostic check to detect the significance and magnitude of the potential breaks. Third, it uses the above information to test for the existence of stochastic trends in real oil prices, and fourth, it speculates about possible explanations for the break dates found in order to encourage further work and discussions. The exercise uses monthly data from January 1861 to August 2011. - Highlights: ► The model endogenously determine multiple structural changes in real oil prices. ► The methods used does not face the circular testing problem. ► It also detect the significance and magnitude of the breaks detected. ► It tests for the existence of stochastic trends. ► It explains the reasons for the break dates found

Computational evidence for hundreds of non-conserved plant microRNAs

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Lindow, Morten; Krogh, Anders Stærmose

2005-01-01

Background MicroRNAs (miRNA) are small (20-25 nt) non-coding RNA molecules that regulate gene expression through interaction with mRNA in plants and metazoans. A few hundred miRNAs are known or predicted, and most of those are evolutionarily conserved. In general plant miRNA are different from...

The impact of the new investments in combined cycle gas turbine power plants on the Italian electricity price

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fontini, Fulvio; Paloscia, Lorenzo

2007-01-01

The paper measures the variation of the electricity price in Italy within the next 10 years due to the recent investment flow in combined cycle gas turbine (CCGT) power plants. It starts by investigating the possibility of decoupling gas and oil prices on the basis of hypotheses about the amount of existing resources and plausible technical substitutability assumptions of the latter with the former. In particular, it is supposed that, in the Italian market, natural gas will play a crucial role which oil has had in power generation. The price of electricity stemming from natural gas is then calculated taking into account the role of the power mix restructuring that derives from the CCGT power plants investments. Under reasonable assumptions, it is shown that a net reduction of at least 17% on the electric price is likely to be expected. (author)

Pricing and Hedging Quanto Options in Energy Markets

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Benth, Fred Espen; Lange, Nina; Myklebust, Tor Åge

2015-01-01

–Jarrow–Morton approach, we derive a closed-form option pricing formula for energy quanto options under the assumption that the underlying assets are lognormally distributed. Our approach encompasses several interesting cases, such as geometric Brownian motions and multifactor spot models. We also derive Delta and Gamma......In energy markets, the use of quanto options has increased significantly in recent years. The payoff from such options are typically written on an underlying energy index and a measure of temperature. They are suited to managing the joint price and volume risk in energy markets. Using a Heath...... expressions for hedging. Further, we illustrate the use of our model by an empirical pricing exercise using NewYork Mercantile Exchange-traded natural gas futures and Chicago Mercantile Exchange-traded heating degree days futures for NewYork....

Nicotine reduction as an increase in the unit price of cigarettes: a behavioral economics approach.

Science.gov (United States)

Smith, Tracy T; Sved, Alan F; Hatsukami, Dorothy K; Donny, Eric C

2014-11-01

Urgent action is needed to reduce the harm caused by smoking. Product standards that reduce the addictiveness of cigarettes are now possible both in the U.S. and in countries party to the Framework Convention on Tobacco Control. Specifically, standards that required substantially reduced nicotine content in cigarettes could enable cessation in smokers and prevent future smoking among current non-smokers. Behavioral economics uses principles from the field of microeconomics to characterize how consumption of a reinforcer changes as a function of the unit price of that reinforcer (unit price=cost/reinforcer magnitude). A nicotine reduction policy might be considered an increase in the unit price of nicotine because smokers are paying more per unit of nicotine. This perspective allows principles from behavioral economics to be applied to nicotine reduction research questions, including how nicotine consumption, smoking behavior, use of other tobacco products, and use of other drugs of abuse are likely to be affected. This paper reviews the utility of this approach and evaluates the notion that a reduction in nicotine content is equivalent to a reduction in the reinforcement value of smoking-an assumption made by the unit price approach. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Baryon- and lepton-number non-conserving processes and intermediate mass scales

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nieves, J.F.

1981-01-01

An analysis of the possible mechanisms to mediate various baryon- and lepton-number non-conserving processes is presented. Processes considered include the Δ(B+L) = 0 proton decay, ΔB = 2 neutron-antineutron oscillations and neutrino Majorana masses. Among our results we find that, in the absence of elementary scalars and exotic fermions, all the renormalizable interactions of vector bosons and ordinary fermions conserve B-L. Therefore, the observation of Δ(B-L) not equal 0 processes would imply the existence of elementary scalars and/or exotic fermions. (orig.)

Conservation and losses of non-coding RNAs in avian genomes.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Paul P Gardner

Full Text Available Here we present the results of a large-scale bioinformatics annotation of non-coding RNA loci in 48 avian genomes. Our approach uses probabilistic models of hand-curated families from the Rfam database to infer conserved RNA families within each avian genome. We supplement these annotations with predictions from the tRNA annotation tool, tRNAscan-SE and microRNAs from miRBase. We identify 34 lncRNA-associated loci that are conserved between birds and mammals and validate 12 of these in chicken. We report several intriguing cases where a reported mammalian lncRNA, but not its function, is conserved. We also demonstrate extensive conservation of classical ncRNAs (e.g., tRNAs and more recently discovered ncRNAs (e.g., snoRNAs and miRNAs in birds. Furthermore, we describe numerous "losses" of several RNA families, and attribute these to either genuine loss, divergence or missing data. In particular, we show that many of these losses are due to the challenges associated with assembling avian microchromosomes. These combined results illustrate the utility of applying homology-based methods for annotating novel vertebrate genomes.

Near-term oil prices

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lynch, M.C.

2001-01-01

This PowerPoint presentation included 36 slides that described the state of oil prices and how to predict them. Prices are random, stochastic, chaotic, mean-reverting and driven by speculators, oil companies and OPEC. The many factors that enable price forecasting are economic growth, weather, industry behaviour, speculators, OPEC policy choices, Mexico/Russia production policy, non-OPEC supply and the interpretation of the above factors by OPEC, speculators, traders and the petroleum industry. Several graphs were included depicting such things as WTI price forecasts, differentials, oil market change in 2001, inventory levels, and WTI backwardation. The presentation provided some explanations for price uncertainties, price surges and collapses. U.S. GDP growth and the volatility of Iraq's production was also depicted. The author predicted that economic growth will occur and that oil demand will go up. Oil prices will fluctuate as the Middle East will be politically unstable and weather will be a major factor that will influence oil prices. The prices are likely to be more volatile than in the 1986 to 1995 period. 2 tabs., 22 figs

THE PRICING PERFORMANCE OF MARKET ADVISORY SERVICES IN CORN AND SOYBEANS OVER 1995-2000

OpenAIRE

Good, Darrel L.; Martines-Filho, Joao Gomes; Irwin, Scott H.

2002-01-01

The purpose of this research report is to evaluate the pricing performance of market advisory services for the 1995-2000 corn and soybean crops. Certain explicit assumptions are made to produce a consistent and comparable set of results across the different advisory programs. These assumptions are intended to accurately depict "real-world" marketing conditions. Several key assumptions are: i) with a few exceptions, the marketing window for a crop year runs from September before harvest throug...

Adaptive hidden Markov model with anomaly States for price manipulation detection.

Science.gov (United States)

Cao, Yi; Li, Yuhua; Coleman, Sonya; Belatreche, Ammar; McGinnity, Thomas Martin

2015-02-01

Price manipulation refers to the activities of those traders who use carefully designed trading behaviors to manually push up or down the underlying equity prices for making profits. With increasing volumes and frequency of trading, price manipulation can be extremely damaging to the proper functioning and integrity of capital markets. The existing literature focuses on either empirical studies of market abuse cases or analysis of particular manipulation types based on certain assumptions. Effective approaches for analyzing and detecting price manipulation in real time are yet to be developed. This paper proposes a novel approach, called adaptive hidden Markov model with anomaly states (AHMMAS) for modeling and detecting price manipulation activities. Together with wavelet transformations and gradients as the feature extraction methods, the AHMMAS model caters to price manipulation detection and basic manipulation type recognition. The evaluation experiments conducted on seven stock tick data from NASDAQ and the London Stock Exchange and 10 simulated stock prices by stochastic differential equation show that the proposed AHMMAS model can effectively detect price manipulation patterns and outperforms the selected benchmark models.

The estimation of time-varying risks in asset pricing modelling using B-Spline method

Science.gov (United States)

Nurjannah; Solimun; Rinaldo, Adji

2017-12-01

Asset pricing modelling has been extensively studied in the past few decades to explore the risk-return relationship. The asset pricing literature typically assumed a static risk-return relationship. However, several studies found few anomalies in the asset pricing modelling which captured the presence of the risk instability. The dynamic model is proposed to offer a better model. The main problem highlighted in the dynamic model literature is that the set of conditioning information is unobservable and therefore some assumptions have to be made. Hence, the estimation requires additional assumptions about the dynamics of risk. To overcome this problem, the nonparametric estimators can also be used as an alternative for estimating risk. The flexibility of the nonparametric setting avoids the problem of misspecification derived from selecting a functional form. This paper investigates the estimation of time-varying asset pricing model using B-Spline, as one of nonparametric approach. The advantages of spline method is its computational speed and simplicity, as well as the clarity of controlling curvature directly. The three popular asset pricing models will be investigated namely CAPM (Capital Asset Pricing Model), Fama-French 3-factors model and Carhart 4-factors model. The results suggest that the estimated risks are time-varying and not stable overtime which confirms the risk instability anomaly. The results is more pronounced in Carhart’s 4-factors model.

Multispecies benefits of wetland conservation for marsh birds, frogs, and species at risk.

Science.gov (United States)

Tozer, Douglas C; Steele, Owen; Gloutney, Mark

2018-04-15

Wetlands conserved using water level manipulation, cattle exclusion, naturalization of uplands, and other techniques under the North American Waterfowl Management Plan ("conservation project wetlands") are important for ducks, geese, and swans ("waterfowl"). However, the assumption that conservation actions for waterfowl also benefit other wildlife is rarely quantified. We modeled detection and occupancy of species at sites within 42 conservation project wetlands compared to sites within 52 similar nearby unmanaged wetlands throughout southern Ontario, Canada, and small portions of the adjacent U.S., using citizen science data collected by Bird Studies Canada's Great Lakes Marsh Monitoring Program, including 2 waterfowl and 13 non-waterfowl marsh-breeding bird species (n = 413 sites) and 7 marsh-breeding frog species (n = 191 sites). Occupancy was significantly greater at conservation project sites compared to unmanaged sites in 7 of 15 (47%) bird species and 3 of 7 (43%) frog species, with occupancy being higher by a difference of 0.12-0.38 across species. Notably, occupancy of priority conservation concern or at-risk Black Tern (Chlidonias niger), Common Gallinule (Gallinula galeata), Least Bittern (Ixobrychus exilis), Sora (Porzana carolina), and Western Chorus Frog (Pseudacris triseriata) was significantly higher at conservation project sites compared to unmanaged sites. The results demonstrate the utility of citizen science to inform wetland conservation, and suggest that actions under the North American Waterfowl Management Plan are effective for conserving non-waterfowl species. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Value of time: Speeding behavior and gasoline prices

OpenAIRE

Wolff, Hendrik

2012-01-01

Do drivers reduce speeds when gasoline prices are high? Previous research investigating this energy conservation hypothesis produced mixed results. We take a fresh look at the data and estimate a significant negative relationship between speeding and gasoline prices. This presents a new methodology of deriving the 'Value of Time' (VOT) based on the intensive margin (previous VOT studies compare across the extensive margin) which has important advantages to circumvent potential omitted variabl...

Chaotic structure of oil prices

Science.gov (United States)

Bildirici, Melike; Sonustun, Fulya Ozaksoy

2018-01-01

The fluctuations in oil prices are very complicated and therefore, it is unable to predict its effects on economies. For modelling complex system of oil prices, linear economic models are not sufficient and efficient tools. Thus, in recent years, economists attached great attention to non-linear structure of oil prices. For analyzing this relationship, GARCH types of models were used in some papers. Distinctively from the other papers, in this study, we aimed to analyze chaotic pattern of oil prices. Thus, it was used the Lyapunov Exponents and Hennon Map to determine chaotic behavior of oil prices for the selected time period.

Technology Timing and Pricing In the Presence of an Installed Base

OpenAIRE

Qiu_Hong Wang; Kai-Lung Hui

2005-01-01

This paper studies a vendor.s timing and pricing strategies to tackle its own installed base when selling a newly improved product. We characterize the market with either a partly- or fully- covered installed base, consumers. relative willingness to pay for the newly improved version of the product, and their relative payoffs from delayed purchase. Instead of using the conventional assumption of constant consumer reservation price, we propose that if consumers already own an existing (old) ve...

Parity Non-Conservation in Proton-Proton Elastic Scattering

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Brown, V.R.; B.F. Gibson; J.A. Carlson; R. Schiavilla

2002-01-01

The parity non-conserving longitudinal asymmetry in proton-proton (pp) elastic scattering is calculated in the lab-energy range 0-350 MeV using contemporary, realistic strong-interaction potentials combined with a weak-interaction potential comprised of rho- and omega-meson exchanges as exemplified by the DDH model. Values for the rho- and omega-meson coupling constants, h rho rho rho and h rho rho omega , are determined from comparison with the measured asymmetries at 13.6 MeV, 45 MeV, and 221 MeV

Risk Neutral Option Pricing With Neither Dynamic Hedging nor Complete Markets

OpenAIRE

Nassim N. Taleb

2014-01-01

Proof that under simple assumptions, such as constraints of Put-Call Parity, the probability measure for the valuation of a European option has the mean derived from the forward price which can, but does not have to be the risk-neutral one, under any general probability distribution, bypassing the Black-Scholes-Merton dynamic hedging argument, and without the requirement of complete markets and other strong assumptions. We confirm that the heuristics used by traders for centuries are both mor...

Technoeconomic assumptions adopted for the development of a long-term electricity supply model for Cyprus.

Science.gov (United States)

Taliotis, Constantinos; Taibi, Emanuele; Howells, Mark; Rogner, Holger; Bazilian, Morgan; Welsch, Manuel

2017-10-01

The generation mix of Cyprus has been dominated by oil products for decades. In order to conform with European Union and international legislation, a transformation of the supply system is called for. Energy system models can facilitate energy planning into the future, but a large volume of data is required to populate such models. The present data article provides information on key modelling assumptions and input data adopted with the aim of representing the electricity supply system of Cyprus in a separate research article. Data in regards to renewable energy technoeconomic characteristics and investment cost projections, fossil fuel price projections, storage technology characteristics and system operation assumptions are described in this article.

Technoeconomic assumptions adopted for the development of a long-term electricity supply model for Cyprus

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Constantinos Taliotis

2017-10-01

Full Text Available The generation mix of Cyprus has been dominated by oil products for decades. In order to conform with European Union and international legislation, a transformation of the supply system is called for. Energy system models can facilitate energy planning into the future, but a large volume of data is required to populate such models. The present data article provides information on key modelling assumptions and input data adopted with the aim of representing the electricity supply system of Cyprus in a separate research article. Data in regards to renewable energy technoeconomic characteristics and investment cost projections, fossil fuel price projections, storage technology characteristics and system operation assumptions are described in this article.

Pharmaceutical policies: effects of reference pricing, other pricing, and purchasing policies.

Science.gov (United States)

Acosta, Angela; Ciapponi, Agustín; Aaserud, Morten; Vietto, Valeria; Austvoll-Dahlgren, Astrid; Kösters, Jan Peter; Vacca, Claudia; Machado, Manuel; Diaz Ayala, Diana Hazbeydy; Oxman, Andrew D

2014-10-16

Pharmaceuticals are important interventions that could improve people's health. Pharmaceutical pricing and purchasing policies are used as cost-containment measures to determine or affect the prices that are paid for drugs. Internal reference pricing establishes a benchmark or reference price within a country which is the maximum level of reimbursement for a group of drugs. Other policies include price controls, maximum prices, index pricing, price negotiations and volume-based pricing. To determine the effects of pharmaceutical pricing and purchasing policies on health outcomes, healthcare utilisation, drug expenditures and drug use. We searched the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL), part of The Cochrane Library (including the Effective Practice and Organisation of Care Group Register) (searched 22/10/2012); MEDLINE In-Process & Other Non-Indexed Citations and MEDLINE, Ovid (searched 22/10/2012); EconLit, ProQuest (searched 22/10/2012); PAIS International, ProQuest (searched 22/10/2012); World Wide Political Science Abstracts, ProQuest (searched 22/10/2012); INRUD Bibliography (searched 22/10/2012); Embase, Ovid (searched 14/12/2010); NHSEED, part of The Cochrane Library (searched 08/12/2010); LILACS, VHL (searched 14/12/2010); International Political Science Abstracts (IPSA), Ebsco (searched (17/12/2010); OpenSIGLE (searched 21/12/10); WHOLIS, WHO (searched 17/12/2010); World Bank (Documents and Reports) (searched 21/12/2010); Jolis (searched 09/10/2011); Global Jolis (searched 09/10/2011) ; OECD (searched 30/08/2005); OECD iLibrary (searched 30/08/2005); World Bank eLibrary (searched 21/12/2010); WHO - The Essential Drugs and Medicines web site (browsed 21/12/2010). Policies in this review were defined as laws; rules; financial and administrative orders made by governments, non-government organisations or private insurers. To be included a study had to include an objective measure of at least one of the following outcomes: drug use

Incorporating Experience Curves in Appliance Standards Analysis

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Garbesi, Karina; Chan, Peter; Greenblatt, Jeffery; Kantner, Colleen; Lekov, Alex; Meyers, Stephen; Rosenquist, Gregory; Buskirk, Robert Van; Yang, Hung-Chia; Desroches, Louis-Benoit

2011-10-31

The technical analyses in support of U.S. energy conservation standards for residential appliances and commercial equipment have typically assumed that manufacturing costs and retail prices remain constant during the projected 30-year analysis period. There is, however, considerable evidence that this assumption does not reflect real market prices. Costs and prices generally fall in relation to cumulative production, a phenomenon known as experience and modeled by a fairly robust empirical experience curve. Using price data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, and shipment data obtained as part of the standards analysis process, we present U.S. experience curves for room air conditioners, clothes dryers, central air conditioners, furnaces, and refrigerators and freezers. These allow us to develop more representative appliance price projections than the assumption-based approach of constant prices. These experience curves were incorporated into recent energy conservation standards for these products. The impact on the national modeling can be significant, often increasing the net present value of potential standard levels in the analysis. In some cases a previously cost-negative potential standard level demonstrates a benefit when incorporating experience. These results imply that past energy conservation standards analyses may have undervalued the economic benefits of potential standard levels.

Price Competition on Graphs

OpenAIRE

Adriaan R. Soetevent

2010-01-01

This paper extends Hotelling's model of price competition with quadratic transportation costs from a line to graphs. I propose an algorithm to calculate firm-level demand for any given graph, conditional on prices and firm locations. One feature of graph models of price competition is that spatial discontinuities in firm-level demand may occur. I show that the existence result of D'Aspremont et al. (1979) does not extend to simple star graphs. I conjecture that this non-existence result holds...

Price Competition on Graphs

OpenAIRE

Pim Heijnen; Adriaan Soetevent

2014-01-01

This paper extends Hotelling's model of price competition with quadratic transportation costs from a line to graphs. We derive an algorithm to calculate firm-level demand for any given graph, conditional on prices and firm locations. These graph models of price competition may lead to spatial discontinuities in firm-level demand. We show that the existence result of D'Aspremont et al. (1979) does not extend to simple star graphs and conjecture that this non-existence result holds more general...

Infinite sets of conservation laws for linear and non-linear field equations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Niederle, J.

1984-01-01

The work was motivated by a desire to understand group theoretically the existence of an infinite set of conservation laws for non-interacting fields and to carry over these conservation laws to the case of interacting fields. The relation between an infinite set of conservation laws of a linear field equation and the enveloping algebra of its space-time symmetry group was established. It is shown that in the case of the Korteweg-de Vries (KdV) equation to each symmetry of the corresponding linear equation delta sub(o)uxxx=u sub() determined by an element of the enveloping algebra of the space translation algebra, there corresponds a symmetry of the full KdV equation

Energy conservation and the residential and commercial sector

Science.gov (United States)

1975-01-01

A detailed analysis of energy conservation actions relevant to the residential and commercial sector has led to the conclusion that the potential for savings is great. The task will not be easy, however, since many of the actions require significant life style changes that are difficult to accomplish. Furthermore, many of the conservation actions cited as instant solutions to the energy crisis are those with only mid to long term potential, such as solar energy or heat pumps. Three significant conservation approaches are viable: adjusting price structure, mandating actions, and educating consumers. The first two appear to be the most feasible. But they are not without a price. Higher utility bills adversely affect the poor and the elderly on fixed incomes. Likewise, strict mandatory measures can be quite distasteful. But the effect of alternatives, such as voluntary savings accomplished through education processes, is minimal in a nation without a true conservation ethic.

Non-price competition in credit card markets through bundling and bank level benefits

OpenAIRE

Akin, Guzin Gulsun; Aysan, Ahmet Faruk; Kara, Gazi Ishak; Yildiran, Levent

2008-01-01

The attempts to explain the high and sticky credit card rates have given rise to a vast literature on credit card markets. This paper endeavors to explain the rates in the Turkish market using measures of non-price competition. In this market, issuers compete monopolistically by differentiating their credit card products. The fact that credit cards and all other banking services are perceived as a bundle by consumers allows banks to deploy also bank level characteristics to differentiate thei...

Conservative Delta Hedging

Science.gov (United States)

1997-09-01

an exact method for converting such intervals into arbitrage based prices of financial derivatives or industrial or contractual options. We call this...procedure conservative delta hedging . As existing procedures are of an ad hoc nature, the proposed approach will permit an institution’s man agement a greater oversight of its exposure to risk.

Tracking the Sun IX: The Installed Price of Residential and Non-Residential Photovoltaic Systems in the United States

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Barbose, Galen [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States). Energy Technologies Area; Darghouth, Naïm [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States). Energy Technologies Area; Millstein, Dev [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Cates, Sarah [Exeter Associates, Columbia, MD (United States); DiSanti, Nicholas [Exeter Associates, Columbia, MD (United States); Widiss, Rebecca [Exeter Associates, Columbia, MD (United States)

2016-08-16

Now in its ninth edition, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL)’s Tracking the Sun report series is dedicated to summarizing trends in the installed price of grid-connected solar photovoltaic (PV) systems in the United States. The present report focuses on residential and non-residential systems installed through year-end 2015, with preliminary trends for the first half of 2016. An accompanying LBNL report, Utility-Scale Solar, addresses trends in the utility-scale sector. This year’s report incorporates a number of important changes and enhancements from prior editions. Among those changes, LBNL has made available a public data file containing all non-confidential project-level data underlying the analysis in this report. Installed pricing trends presented within this report derive primarily from project-level data reported to state agencies and utilities that administer PV incentive programs, solar renewable energy credit (SREC) registration systems, or interconnection processes. Refer to the text box to the right for several key notes about these data. In total, data were collected and cleaned for more than 820,000 individual PV systems, representing 85% of U.S. residential and non-residential PV systems installed cumulatively through 2015 and 82% of systems installed in 2015. The analysis in this report is based on a subset of this sample, consisting of roughly 450,000 systems with available installed price data.

Emerging Assumptions About Organization Design, Knowledge And Action

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Alan Meyer

2013-12-01

Full Text Available Participants in the Organizational Design Community’s 2013 Annual Conference faced the challenge of “making organization design knowledge actionable.”  This essay summarizes the opinions and insights participants shared during the conference.  I reflect on these ideas, connect them to recent scholarly thinking about organization design, and conclude that seeking to make design knowledge actionable is nudging the community away from an assumption set based upon linearity and equilibrium, and toward a new set of assumptions based on emergence, self-organization, and non-linearity.

Estimation of several political action effects of energy prices

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Andrew B. Whitford

2016-01-01

Full Text Available One important effect of price shocks in the United States has been increased political attention paid to the structure and performance of oil and natural gas markets, along with some governmental support for energy conservation. This article describes how price changes helped lead to the emergence of a political agenda accompanied by several interventions, as revealed through Granger causality tests on change in the legislative agenda.

Modeling of price and profit in coupled-ring networks

Science.gov (United States)

Tangmongkollert, Kittiwat; Suwanna, Sujin

2016-06-01

We study the behaviors of magnetization, price, and profit profiles in ring networks in the presence of the external magnetic field. The Ising model is used to determine the state of each node, which is mapped to the buy-or-sell state in a financial market, where +1 is identified as the buying state, and -1 as the selling state. Price and profit mechanisms are modeled based on the assumption that price should increase if demand is larger than supply, and it should decrease otherwise. We find that the magnetization can be induced between two rings via coupling links, where the induced magnetization strength depends on the number of the coupling links. Consequently, the price behaves linearly with time, where its rate of change depends on the magnetization. The profit grows like a quadratic polynomial with coefficients dependent on the magnetization. If two rings have opposite direction of net spins, the price flows in the direction of the majority spins, and the network with the minority spins gets a loss in profit.

How do people learn from negative evidence? Non-monotonic generalizations and sampling assumptions in inductive reasoning.

Science.gov (United States)

Voorspoels, Wouter; Navarro, Daniel J; Perfors, Amy; Ransom, Keith; Storms, Gert

2015-09-01

A robust finding in category-based induction tasks is for positive observations to raise the willingness to generalize to other categories while negative observations lower the willingness to generalize. This pattern is referred to as monotonic generalization. Across three experiments we find systematic non-monotonicity effects, in which negative observations raise the willingness to generalize. Experiments 1 and 2 show that this effect emerges in hierarchically structured domains when a negative observation from a different category is added to a positive observation. They also demonstrate that this is related to a specific kind of shift in the reasoner's hypothesis space. Experiment 3 shows that the effect depends on the assumptions that the reasoner makes about how inductive arguments are constructed. Non-monotonic reasoning occurs when people believe the facts were put together by a helpful communicator, but monotonicity is restored when they believe the observations were sampled randomly from the environment. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Occupational Hearing Loss from Non-Gaussian Noise.

Science.gov (United States)

Suter, Alice H

2017-08-01

Noise levels are truly continuous in relatively few occupations, with some degree of intermittency the most common condition. The sound levels of intermittent noise are often referred to as non-Gaussian in that they are not normally distributed in the time domain. In some conditions, intermittent noise affects the ear differently from continuous noise, and it is this assumption that underlies the selection of the 5-dB exchange rate (ER). The scientific and professional communities have debated this assumption over recent decades. This monograph explores the effect of non-Gaussian noise on the auditory system. It begins by summarizing an earlier report by the same author concentrating on the subject of the ER. The conclusions of the earlier report supported the more conservative 3-dB ER with possible adjustments to the permissible exposure limit for certain working conditions. The current document has expanded on the earlier report in light of the relevant research accomplished in the intervening decades. Although some of the animal research has supported the mitigating effect of intermittency, a closer look at many of these studies reveals certain weaknesses, along with the fact that these noise exposures were not usually representative of the conditions under which people actually work. The more recent animal research on complex noise shows that intermittencies do not protect the cochlea and that many of the previous assumptions about the ameliorative effect of intermittencies are no longer valid, lending further support to the 3-dB ER. The neurologic effects of noise on hearing have gained increasing attention in recent years because of improvements in microscopy and immunostaining techniques. Animal experiments showing damage to auditory synapses from noise exposures previously considered harmless may signify the need for a more conservative approach to the assessment of noise-induced hearing loss and consequently the practice of hearing conservation programs.

Weak asymptotic solution for a non-strictly hyperbolic system of conservation laws-II

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Manas Ranjan Sahoo

2016-04-01

Full Text Available In this article we introduce a concept of entropy weak asymptotic solution for a system of conservation laws and construct the same for a prolonged system of conservation laws which is highly non-strictly hyperbolic. This is first done for Riemann type initial data by introducing $\\delta,\\delta',\\delta''$ waves along a discontinuity curve and then for general initial data by piecing together the Riemann solutions.

18 CFR 2.22 - Pricing policy for transmission services provided under the Federal Power Act.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-04-01

... 18 Conservation of Power and Water Resources 1 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Pricing policy for... INTERPRETATIONS Statements of General Policy and Interpretations Under the Federal Power Act § 2.22 Pricing policy... Policy Statement on its pricing policy for transmission services provided under the Federal Power Act...

Forecasting prices and price volatility in the Nordic electricity market

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2001-01-01

We develop a stochastic model for long term price forecasting in a competitive electricity market environment. It is demonstrated both theoretically and through model simulations that non-stochastic models may give biased forecasts both with respect to price level and volatility. In the paper, the model concept is applied on the restructured Nordic electricity market. It is specially in peak load hours that a stochastic model formulation provides significantly different results than an expected value model. (author)

Dynamic option pricing with endogenous stochastic arbitrage

Science.gov (United States)

Contreras, Mauricio; Montalva, Rodrigo; Pellicer, Rely; Villena, Marcelo

2010-09-01

Only few efforts have been made in order to relax one of the key assumptions of the Black-Scholes model: the no-arbitrage assumption. This is despite the fact that arbitrage processes usually exist in the real world, even though they tend to be short-lived. The purpose of this paper is to develop an option pricing model with endogenous stochastic arbitrage, capable of modelling in a general fashion any future and underlying asset that deviate itself from its market equilibrium. Thus, this investigation calibrates empirically the arbitrage on the futures on the S&P 500 index using transaction data from September 1997 to June 2009, from here a specific type of arbitrage called “arbitrage bubble”, based on a t-step function, is identified and hence used in our model. The theoretical results obtained for Binary and European call options, for this kind of arbitrage, show that an investment strategy that takes advantage of the identified arbitrage possibility can be defined, whenever it is possible to anticipate in relative terms the amplitude and timespan of the process. Finally, the new trajectory of the stock price is analytically estimated for a specific case of arbitrage and some numerical illustrations are developed. We find that the consequences of a finite and small endogenous arbitrage not only change the trajectory of the asset price during the period when it started, but also after the arbitrage bubble has already gone. In this context, our model will allow us to calibrate the B-S model to that new trajectory even when the arbitrage already started.

The true Price of Chocolate?

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Ingram, V.J.; Chocoloney, T.

2015-01-01

Chocolate prices generally do not incorporate many of the environmental and social externalities, costs which are incurred as the main ingredients such as cocoa and sugar move from farms, to factories to consumers. Nor do prices reflect the benefits of non-conventional production and alternative

Energy and angular-momentum non-conservation in four-dimensional gauge theories

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Manohar, A.

1985-01-01

We study energy and angular-momentum non-conservation on four-dimensional chiral gauge theories using Landau levels. These effects are physical manifestations of the usual gauge anomaly, and enable us to understand in a semi-classical approximation why anomaly cancellation is required for a consistent field theory. (orig.)

Energy conservation in India: a profile

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Anon.

1992-01-01

The decade and half since the oil crisis of 1973 has been a period that has witnessed a steady growth of the energy conservation ethos in India. Housekeeping and low risk conservation options have been largely preferred so far. The IMWG (Inter-Ministerial Working Group on Utilization and Conservation of Energy) study did not evaluate potential saving through the introduction of high risk and high pay-off technologies. The potential for energy conservation in India is substantial. However, some of the barriers to achieving the potential in the past have been energy prices which deviate from rational tariffs and prices, a lack of information on specific measures and of options for achieving energy conservation, paucity of capital for schemes requiring technology upgradation and efficiency improvements, and the inadequacy if institutional arrangement for promoting energy conservation in different sectors of the economy. Recent efforts pursued by several organizations however provide some basis for optimism. Given the growing capital intensity of the energy sector in India, more vigorous efforts are likely to be made in the future. In particular, success stories in some industrial units indicate that decentralized efforts by the units themselves can achieve a great deal in improving the efficiency of energy use, particularly in the Indian industry. Policies to promote such programmes would help accelerate energy conservation efforts in industrial units and in other sectors. It is therefore hoped that the intensity of energy use in several sectors of the indian economy will be reduced significantly in the coming years. (author). 3 refs., 3 tabs

Taxes, Regulations, and Asset Prices

OpenAIRE

Ellen R. McGrattan; Edward C. Prescott

2001-01-01

U.S. stock prices have increased much faster than gross domestic product (GDP) in the postwar period. Between 1962 and 2000, corporate equity value relative to GDP nearly doubled. In this paper, we determine what standard growth theory says the equity value should be in 1962 and 2000, the two years for which our steady-state assumption is a reasonable one. We find that the actual valuations were close to the theoretical predictions in both years. The reason for the large run-up in equity valu...

Not All Large Customers are Made Alike: Disaggregating Response to Default-Service Day-Ahead Market Pricing

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hopper, Nicole; Goldman, Charles; Neenan, Bernie

2006-01-01

For decades, policymakers and program designers have gone on the assumption that large customers, particularly industrial facilities, are the best candidates for realtime pricing (RTP). This assumption is based partly on practical considerations (large customers can provide potentially large load reductions) but also on the premise that businesses focused on production cost minimization are most likely to participate and respond to opportunities for bill savings. Yet few studies have examined the actual price response of large industrial and commercial customers in a disaggregated fashion, nor have factors such as the impacts of demand response (DR) enabling technologies, simultaneous emergency DR program participation and price response barriers been fully elucidated. This second-phase case study of Niagara Mohawk Power Corporation (NMPC)'s large customer RTP tariff addresses these information needs. The results demonstrate the extreme diversity of large customers' response to hourly varying prices. While two-thirds exhibit some price response, about 20 percent of customers provide 75-80 percent of the aggregate load reductions. Manufacturing customers are most price-responsive as a group, followed by government/education customers, while other sectors are largely unresponsive. However, individual customer response varies widely. Currently, enabling technologies do not appear to enhance hourly price response; customers report using them for other purposes. The New York Independent System Operator (NYISO)'s emergency DR programs enhance price response, in part by signaling to customers that day-ahead prices are high. In sum, large customers do currently provide moderate price response, but there is significant room for improvement through targeted programs that help customers develop and implement automated load-response strategies

Capacity pricing in a free market

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wangensteen, Ivar; Wolfgang, Ove; Doorman, Gerard

2005-01-01

This report deals primarily with pricing of reserve capacity, partly on a theoretical basis and partly based on practical experience from the Norwegian market. In the theoretical part we describe a simple model for investigation of equilibrium prices on capacity reserves, spot power and regulating power. This model is based on strong simplifying assumptions. Next a computer model is introduced. That enables more complexity and makes it possible to analyse more realistic scenarios. Finally the report describes experiences from the Norwegian market. The Norwegian System Operator, Statnett, is responsible for the Balancing Market (BM) and Reserves Option Market (ROM), which was introduced a few years ago as a separate market for reserves. Experience with these market instruments are generally good and Statnett is preparing a new version for the winter 2004/2005. The report deals with generation as well as consumer side capacity reserves. One interesting observation is that in Norway the consumer side is providing more capacity reserves than the generators, but the consumers normally bid in a higher BM price than the generators. (author)

CONDOR: a database resource of developmentally associated conserved non-coding elements

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Smith Sarah

2007-08-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Comparative genomics is currently one of the most popular approaches to study the regulatory architecture of vertebrate genomes. Fish-mammal genomic comparisons have proved powerful in identifying conserved non-coding elements likely to be distal cis-regulatory modules such as enhancers, silencers or insulators that control the expression of genes involved in the regulation of early development. The scientific community is showing increasing interest in characterizing the function, evolution and language of these sequences. Despite this, there remains little in the way of user-friendly access to a large dataset of such elements in conjunction with the analysis and the visualization tools needed to study them. Description Here we present CONDOR (COnserved Non-coDing Orthologous Regions available at: http://condor.fugu.biology.qmul.ac.uk. In an interactive and intuitive way the website displays data on > 6800 non-coding elements associated with over 120 early developmental genes and conserved across vertebrates. The database regularly incorporates results of ongoing in vivo zebrafish enhancer assays of the CNEs carried out in-house, which currently number ~100. Included and highlighted within this set are elements derived from duplication events both at the origin of vertebrates and more recently in the teleost lineage, thus providing valuable data for studying the divergence of regulatory roles between paralogs. CONDOR therefore provides a number of tools and facilities to allow scientists to progress in their own studies on the function and evolution of developmental cis-regulation. Conclusion By providing access to data with an approachable graphics interface, the CONDOR database presents a rich resource for further studies into the regulation and evolution of genes involved in early development.

Impact of European pharmaceutical price regulation on generic price competition: a review.

Science.gov (United States)

Puig-Junoy, Jaume

2010-01-01

, the entry of new generic competitors is useful for lowering the real transaction price of purchases made by pharmacies (dynamic price competition at ex-factory level), although this effect is weaker or non-significant for official ex-factory prices and consumer prices in some countries. When maximum reimbursement systems such as reference pricing or similar types are applied, pharmacies are seen to receive large discounts on the price they pay for the pharmaceuticals, although these discounts are not transferred to the consumer price. The percentage discount offered to pharmacies in a country that uses a price-cap system combined with reference pricing is positively and significantly related to the number of generic competitors in the market for the pharmaceutical (dynamic price competition at ex-factory level).

The Price-Marginal Cost Markup and its Determinants in U.S. Manufacturing

OpenAIRE

Mazumder, Sandeep

2009-01-01

This paper estimates the price-marginal cost markup for US manufacturing using a new methodology. Most existing techniques of estimating the markup are a variant on Hall's (1988) framework involving the manipulation of the Solow Residual. However this paper argues that this notion is based on the unreasonable assumption that labor can be costlessly adjusted at a fixed wage rate. By relaxing this assumption, we are able to derive a generalized markup index, which when estimated using manufactu...

Conservative and non-conservative behaviour of radionuclides in an estuarine environment, with particular respect to the behaviour of plutonium isotopes

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Assinder, D.J.; Kelly, M.; Aston, S.R.

1984-01-01

Of the radionuclides entering the Esk Estuary from the Sellafield effluent discharges into the Irish Sea, the behaviour in the dissolved phase of 106 Ru, 134 Cs and 137 Cs is conservative whilst that of 238 Pu and sup(239,240)Pu is non-conservative. The latter leads to the enrichment of Pu in low salinity waters, probably by transfer from the particulate phase. This has repercussions on the distribution of Pu activity in the estuary, and also on the long term fate of sediment stored Pu. (author)

Modeling spot markets for electricity and pricing electricity derivatives

Science.gov (United States)

Ning, Yumei

Spot prices for electricity have been very volatile with dramatic price spikes occurring in restructured market. The task of forecasting electricity prices and managing price risk presents a new challenge for market players. The objectives of this dissertation are: (1) to develop a stochastic model of price behavior and predict price spikes; (2) to examine the effect of weather forecasts on forecasted prices; (3) to price electricity options and value generation capacity. The volatile behavior of prices can be represented by a stochastic regime-switching model. In the model, the means of the high-price and low-price regimes and the probabilities of switching from one regime to the other are specified as functions of daily peak load. The probability of switching to the high-price regime is positively related to load, but is still not high enough at the highest loads to predict price spikes accurately. An application of this model shows how the structure of the Pennsylvania-New Jersey-Maryland market changed when market-based offers were allowed, resulting in higher price spikes. An ARIMA model including temperature, seasonal, and weekly effects is estimated to forecast daily peak load. Forecasts of load under different assumptions about weather patterns are used to predict changes of price behavior given the regime-switching model of prices. Results show that the range of temperature forecasts from a normal summer to an extremely warm summer cause relatively small increases in temperature (+1.5%) and load (+3.0%). In contrast, the increases in prices are large (+20%). The conclusion is that the seasonal outlook forecasts provided by NOAA are potentially valuable for predicting prices in electricity markets. The traditional option models, based on Geometric Brownian Motion are not appropriate for electricity prices. An option model using the regime-switching framework is developed to value a European call option. The model includes volatility risk and allows changes

Approximation Preserving Reductions among Item Pricing Problems

Science.gov (United States)

Hamane, Ryoso; Itoh, Toshiya; Tomita, Kouhei

When a store sells items to customers, the store wishes to determine the prices of the items to maximize its profit. Intuitively, if the store sells the items with low (resp. high) prices, the customers buy more (resp. less) items, which provides less profit to the store. So it would be hard for the store to decide the prices of items. Assume that the store has a set V of n items and there is a set E of m customers who wish to buy those items, and also assume that each item i ∈ V has the production cost di and each customer ej ∈ E has the valuation vj on the bundle ej ⊆ V of items. When the store sells an item i ∈ V at the price ri, the profit for the item i is pi = ri - di. The goal of the store is to decide the price of each item to maximize its total profit. We refer to this maximization problem as the item pricing problem. In most of the previous works, the item pricing problem was considered under the assumption that pi ≥ 0 for each i ∈ V, however, Balcan, et al. [In Proc. of WINE, LNCS 4858, 2007] introduced the notion of “loss-leader, ” and showed that the seller can get more total profit in the case that pi < 0 is allowed than in the case that pi < 0 is not allowed. In this paper, we derive approximation preserving reductions among several item pricing problems and show that all of them have algorithms with good approximation ratio.

A Game Theory Analysis of the OPEC's Influence on World Oil Price

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

无

2006-01-01

Most studies concerning OPEC's behavior were based on traditional market microstructure. However, the assumptions about oil market structure are either very rigorous or rather fuzzy. This paper demonstrates the rationality and necessity of OPEC's price band policy by using the game theory. We conclude that OPEC has the incentive to limit its price within a specific range if the game period is sufficiently long. This incentive comes either from preference for long-term interest or from future expectations. In such a way, OPEC tries its best to maximize its profit with the quotaprice dual policy and plays a price stabilizing role in the future world oil market.

Empirical assessment of energy-price policies: the case for cross-price elasticities

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Frondel, M.

2004-01-01

Evaluations of energy-price policies are necessarily based on measures of the substitution of energy and non-energy inputs. Facing a variety of substitution elasticities, the central question arises which measure would be appropriate. Apparently, for a long time, this question has not been at issue: Allen's elasticities of substitution (AES) have been the most-used measures in applied production analysis. This paper's main contribution is an instructive survey of the origin of substitution measures and of the trinity of empirical substitution elasticities-AES, cross-price elasticities, and the Morishima elasticities of substitution (MES)-with particular emphasis on their interpretations and the perspectives that will be captured by these measures. This survey clarifies why classical cross-price elasticities are to be preferred for many practical purposes. Berndt and Wood's (Rev. Econom. Stat. 57(1975) 259) frequently applied data set of US manufacturing is used to illustrate why assessments of energy-price policies would be better based on cross-price elasticities like the energy-price elasticity of capital, rather than on AES or MES. (author)

Empirical assessment of energy-price policies: the case for cross-price elasticities

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Frondel, Manuel

2004-01-01

Evaluations of energy-price policies are necessarily based on measures of the substitution of energy and non-energy inputs. Facing a variety of substitution elasticities, the central question arises which measure would be appropriate. Apparently, for a long time, this question has not been at issue: Allen's elasticities of substitution (AES) have been the most-used measures in applied production analysis. This paper's main contribution is an instructive survey of the origin of substitution measures and of the trinity of empirical substitution elasticities - AES, cross-price elasticities, and the Morishima elasticities of substitution (MES) - with particular emphasis on their interpretations and the perspectives that will be captured by these measures. This survey clarifies why classical cross-price elasticities are to be preferred for many practical purposes. Berndt and Wood's (Rev. Econom. Stat. 57 (1975) 259) frequently applied data set of US manufacturing is used to illustrate why assessments of energy-price policies would be better based on cross-price elasticities like the energy-price elasticity of capital, rather than on AES or MES

Factors affecting forward pricing behaviour: implications of alternative regression model specifications

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Henry Jordaan

2010-12-01

Full Text Available Price risk associated with maize production became a reason for concern in South Africa only after the deregulation of the agricultural commodities markets in the mid-1990s, when farmers became responsible for marketing their own crops. Although farmers can use, inter alia, the cash forward contracting and/or the derivatives market to manage price risk, few farmers actually participate in forward pricing. A similar reluctance to use forward pricing methods is also found internationally. A number of different model specifications have been used in previous research to model forward pricing behaviour which is based on the assumption that the same variables influence both the adoption and the quantity decision. This study compares the results from a model specification which models forward pricing behaviour in a single-decision framework with the results from modelling the quantity decision conditional to the adoption decision in a two-step approach. The results suggest that substantially more information is obtained by modelling forward pricing behaviour as two separate decisions rather than a single decision. Such information may be valuable in educational material compiled to educate farmers in the effective use of forward pricing methods in price risk management. Modelling forward pricing behaviour as two separate decisions  is thus a more effective means of modelling forward pricing behaviour than modelling it as a single decision.

Development of Non-Conservative Joints in Beam Networks for Vibration Energy Flow Analysis

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jee-Hun Song

2007-01-01

Full Text Available Our work aims to find a general solution for the vibrational energy flow through a plane network of beams on the basis of an energy flow analysis. A joint between two semi-infinite beams are modeled by three sets of springs and dashpots. Thus, the results can incorporate the case of complaint and non-conservative in all the three degrees of freedom. In the cases of finite coupled structures connected at a certain angle, the derived non-conservative joints and developed wave energy equation were applied. The joint properties, the frequency, the coupling angle, and the internal loss factor were changed to evaluate the proposed methods for predicting medium-to-high frequency vibrational energy and intensity distributions.

PRICE AND PRICING STRATEGIES

OpenAIRE

SUCIU Titus

2013-01-01

In individual companies, price is one significant factor in achieving marketing success. In many purchase situations, price can be of great importance to customers. Marketers must establish pricing strategies that are compatible with the rest of the marketing mix. Management should decide whether to charge the same price to all similar buyers of identical quantities of a product (a one-price strategy) or to set different prices (a flexible price strategy). Many organizations, especially retai...

On Nonlinear Prices in Timed Automata

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Devendra Bhave

2016-12-01

Full Text Available Priced timed automata provide a natural model for quantitative analysis of real-time systems and have been successfully applied in various scheduling and planning problems. The optimal reachability problem for linearly-priced timed automata is known to be PSPACE-complete. In this paper we investigate priced timed automata with more general prices and show that in the most general setting the optimal reachability problem is undecidable. We adapt and implement the construction of Audemard, Cimatti, Kornilowicz, and Sebastiani for non-linear priced timed automata using state-of-the-art theorem prover Z3 and present some preliminary results.

Asset Pricing and Monetary Policy

OpenAIRE

Bingbing Dong

2014-01-01

This paper examines the role of money in understanding the behavior of asset prices and whether and how monetary policy should react to asset prices such as stock prices and equity premiums. To do so, I introduce money via the form of transaction cost into a production economy with limited stock market participation where agents with lower inter-temporal elasticity of substitution (IES), called non-stockholders, have no access to stock market. In addition to facilitating transactions of consu...

A regime-switching copula approach to modeling day-ahead prices in coupled electricity markets

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Pircalabu, Anca; Benth, Fred Espen

2017-01-01

significant evidence of tail dependence in all pairs of interconnected areas we consider. As a first application of the proposed model, we consider the pricing of financial transmission rights, and highlight how the choice of marginal distributions and copula impacts prices. As a second application we......The recent price coupling of many European electricity markets has triggered a fundamental change in the interaction of day-ahead prices, challenging additionally the modeling of the joint behavior of prices in interconnected markets. In this paper we propose a regime-switching AR–GARCH copula...... to model pairs of day-ahead electricity prices in coupled European markets. While capturing key stylized facts empirically substantiated in the literature, this model easily allows us to 1) deviate from the assumption of normal margins and 2) include a more detailed description of the dependence between...

An empirical examination of restructured electricity prices

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Knittel, C.R.; Roberts, M.R.

2005-01-01

We present an empirical analysis of restructured electricity prices. We study the distributional and temporal properties of the price process in a non-parametric framework, after which we parametrically model the price process using several common asset price specifications from the asset-pricing literature, as well as several less conventional models motivated by the peculiarities of electricity prices. The findings reveal several characteristics unique to electricity prices including several deterministic components of the price series at different frequencies. An 'inverse leverage effect' is also found, where positive shocks to the price series result in larger increases in volatility than negative shocks. We find that forecasting performance in dramatically improved when we incorporate features of electricity prices not commonly modelled in other asset prices. Our findings have implications for how empiricists model electricity prices, as well as how theorists specify models of energy pricing. (author)

The effect of expected energy prices on energy demand: implications for energy conservation and carbon taxes

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kaufmann, R.K.

1994-01-01

This paper describes an empirical method for estimating the effect of expected prices on energy demand. Data for expected oil prices are compiled from forecasts for real oil prices. The effect of expectations on energy demand is simulated with an expectation variable that proxies the return on investment for energy efficient capital. Econometric results indicate that expected prices have a significant effect on energy demand in the US between 1975 and 1989. A model built from the econometric results indicates that the way in which consumers anticipate changes in energy prices that are generated by a carbon tax affects the quantity of emissions abated by the tax. 14 refs., 4 figs., 1 tab

Testing the assumptions behind emissions trading in non-market goods: the RECLAIM program in Southern California

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lejano, Raul P.; Hirose, Rei

2005-01-01

Emissions trading is, essentially, a policy instrument that is designed to simulate a market for an otherwise public good. Conceptually, its justification hinges on a number of key assumptions, namely the negligibility of local impacts, the ability to separate and commodify the good in question, and characteristics of a well-functioning market. The authors examine the performance of RECLAIM, a NO x emissions trading program in Southern California, USA, and illustrate how to test these assumptions. There is some evidence that the trading of NO x generates new externalities, such as the possibility that other air pollutants, e.g. volatile organics, are essentially traded along with it. Moreover, the RECLAIM program has recently begun to experience difficulties due to the fact that the market is relatively thin. This analysis provides ways to assess more deeply and reform these trading regimes, including opening up RECLAIM to public review. The case study speaks to a wider arena, as emissions trading is presently being considered in other parts of the world to address issues ranging from acid rain to non-point source pollution to greenhouse gases. The analytic approach, illustrated herein, is a general one that has a wider applicability than the particular case of NO x trading. It is hoped that this kind of critical inquiry can lead to a more careful deliberation of the merits and challenges of emissions trading

Comment on “Time-changed geometric fractional Brownian motion and option pricing with transaction costs” by Hui Gu et al.

Science.gov (United States)

Guo, Zhidong; Song, Yukun; Zhang, Yunliang

2013-05-01

The purpose of this comment is to point out the inappropriate assumption of “3αH>1” and two problems in the proof of “Theorem 3.1” in section 3 of the paper “Time-changed geometric fractional Brownian motion and option pricing with transaction costs” by Hui Gu et al. [H. Gu, J.R. Liang, Y. X. Zhang, Time-changed geometric fractional Brownian motion and option pricing with transaction costs, Physica A 391 (2012) 3971-3977]. Then we show the two problems will be solved under our new assumption.

Oil prices without OPEC: a walk on the supply-side

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Roumasset, J.; Isaak, D.; Fesharaki, F.

1983-07-01

The rapid increases of oil prices during the 1970s are commonly regarded as prima facie evidence of monopoly power. This paper applies the theory of exhaustible resources to estimate the equilibrium oil prices (also known as efficiency prices) which would have prevailed in the absence of monopoly profits. The theory incorporates an extraction cost function wherein cost is a rising function of the cumulative amount of oil extracted. The model is used to simulate efficiency price paths under a variety of assumptions about extraction costs and real interest rates which are representative of perceptions at various times in recent history. These simulations show that the price increases of 1974 and 1979 to 1980 can be explained as a response to supply-side changes, especially changes in the perceived cost of the backstop technology and the fall in real interest rates in the mid and late 1970s. Thus, while efficiency prices were high in the 1970s, relative to extraction costs, it is plausible that average monopoly profits were negligible. This situation appears to have changed in the early 1980s due to the return of real interest rates to their historic levels. In early 1982, even spot prices, already below official prices, were substantially above the estimated efficiency or competitive price level. On the other hand, efficiency prices remain far above extraction costs. Thus, even if the price-setting power of OPEC were eroded by competition, the real price of oil would not fall below the level established in 1974. 18 references, 1 figure, 2 tables.

Tracking the Sun 10: The Installed Price of Residential and Non-Residential Photovoltaic Systems in the United States

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Barbose, Galen [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Darghouth, Naim R. [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Millstein, Dev [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); LaCommare, Kristina [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); DiSanti, Nicholas [Exeter Associates, Columbia, MD (United States); Widiss, Rebecca [Exeter Associates, Columbia, MD (United States)

2017-09-21

Berkeley Lab’s Tracking the Sun report series is dedicated to summarizing trends in the installed price of grid-connected, residential and non-residential systems solar photovoltaic (PV) systems in the United States. The present report, the tenth edition in the series, focuses on systems installed through year-end 2016, with preliminary data for the first half of 2017. The report provides an overview of both long-term and more-recent trends, highlighting key drivers for installed price declines over different time horizons. The report also extensively characterizes the widespread variability in system pricing, comparing installed prices across states, market segments, installers, and various system and technology characteristics. The trends described in this report derive from project-level data collected by state agencies and utilities that administer PV incentive programs, solar renewable energy credit (SREC) registration systems, or interconnection processes. In total, data for this report were compiled and cleaned for more than 1.1 million individual PV systems, though the analysis in the report is based on a subset of that sample, consisting of roughly 630,000 systems with available installed price data. The full underlying dataset of project-level data (excluding any confidential information) is available in a public data file, for use by other researchers and analysts.

After the oil price collapse

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kohl, W.L.

1991-01-01

In this book, the authors focus on issues that include the extremely high prices following the second oil shock, the resulting decline in oil demand and the increase in non-OPEC production, reduced industry concentration, OPEC's subsequent attempt to regain market share; and the resulting free-for-all of competitive pricing

Pricing decision research for TPL considering different logistics service level influencing the market demand

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Wei Li

2013-03-01

Full Text Available Purpose: With the rapid development of economy and the support of government policy, the development of the logistics industry has become a new economic growth engine. As we all know, the reasonable price of logistics service is the most critical factor for logistics enterprises to win market share and make profit. At the same time, the service level is one of the most important factors which will influence the size of the market share. Therefore, this paper constructs a pricing model considering a situation that the logistics service level affects the market demand. This model helps the enterprises to make scientific decisions.Methodology: To achieve this objective, this paper constructs the TPL service and the pricing decision models based on the game theory.Findings: The conclusion shows that under the situation of independent decision-making, the enterprise which has strong ability of logistics service does not necessarily have a competitive advantage, while pricing equilibrium under the situation of joint decision-making, not only make both sides get more income, but also be conducive to improve the level of service.Research limitations: In this research, there are some assumptions that might affect the accuracy the model such as there are only two TPL enterprises to participate in, and considerations are taken under the condition of complete information environment. These assumptions can be relaxed in the future work.Originality: In this research, logistics service level is taken account into the areas of logistics service pricing, which makes the models more practical and more perfect. And this paper constructs game models based on game theory to make up the limitations of traditional pricing theories in logistics service pricing.

Airport Pricing Strategies

Science.gov (United States)

Pels, Eric; Verhoef, Erik T.

2003-01-01

Conventional economic wisdom suggests that congestion pricing would be an appropriate response to cope with the growing congestion levels currently experienced at many airports. Several characteristics of aviation markets, however, may make naive congestion prices equal to the value of marginal travel delays a non-optimal response. This paper has developed a model of airport pricing that captures a number of these features. The model in particular reflects that airlines typically have market power and are engaged in oligopolistic competition at different sub-markets; that part of external travel delays that aircraft impose are internal to an operator and hence should not be accounted for in congestion tolls. We presented an analytical treatment for a simple bi-nodal symmetric network, which through the use of 'hyper-networks' would be readily applicable to dynamic problems (in discrete time) such as peak - off-peak differences, and some numerical exercises for the same symmetric network, which was only designed to illustrate the possible comparative static impacts of tolling, in addition to marginal equilibrium conditions as could be derived for the general model specification. Some main conclusions are that second-best optimal tolls are typically lower than what would be suggested by congestion costs alone and may even be negative, and that the toll as derived by Brueckner (2002) may not lead to an increase in total welfare. While Brueckner (2002) has made clear that congestion tolls on airports may be smaller than expected when congestion costs among aircraft are internal for a firm, our analysis adds to this that a further downward adjustment may be in order due to market power. The presence of market power (which causes prices to exceed marginal costs) may cause the pure congestion toll to be suboptimal, because the resulting decrease in demand is too high (the pure congestion tall does not take into account the decrease in consumer surplus). The various

Three essays on price dynamics and causations among energy markets and macroeconomic information

Science.gov (United States)

Hong, Sung Wook

This dissertation examines three important issues in energy markets: price dynamics, information flow, and structural change. We discuss each issue in detail, building empirical time series models, analyzing the results, and interpreting the findings. First, we examine the contemporaneous interdependencies and information flows among crude oil, natural gas, and electricity prices in the United States (US) through the multivariate generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (MGARCH) model, Directed Acyclic Graph (DAG) for contemporaneous causal structures and Bernanke factorization for price dynamic processes. Test results show that the DAG from residuals of out-of-sample-forecast is consistent with the DAG from residuals of within-sample-fit. The result supports innovation accounting analysis based on DAGs using residuals of out-of-sample-forecast. Second, we look at the effects of the federal fund rate and/or WTI crude oil price shock on US macroeconomic and financial indicators by using a Factor Augmented Vector Autoregression (FAVAR) model and a graphical model without any deductive assumption. The results show that, in contemporaneous time, the federal fund rate shock is exogenous as the identifying assumption in the Vector Autoregression (VAR) framework of the monetary shock transmission mechanism, whereas the WTI crude oil price return is not exogenous. Third, we examine price dynamics and contemporaneous causality among the price returns of WTI crude oil, gasoline, corn, and the S&P 500. We look for structural break points and then build an econometric model to find the consistent sub-periods having stable parameters in a given VAR framework and to explain recent movements and interdependency among returns. We found strong evidence of two structural breaks and contemporaneous causal relationships among the residuals, but also significant differences between contemporaneous causal structures for each sub-period.

Can an unglamorous non-event affect prices? The role of newspapers

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Riccardo Ferretti

2016-12-01

Full Text Available Our paper offers evidence that the print media can affect stock prices by covering public information. After price-to-book value figures of Italian listed shares were first published on the major national financial newspaper, the prices of value stocks did, on average, show a positive reaction. The price reaction was limited to small caps stocks and disappeared within three weeks. Over the period of analysis, we could not find any abnormal behaviour of the returns of small and value stocks on other European markets. These findings support the view that newspapers play a role in disseminating information to small investors and grabbing their attention, even if news are continuously realeased by faster and more sophisticated media.

Price regulation and relative price convergence: Evidence from the retail gasoline market in Canada

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Suvankulov, Farrukh; Lau, Marco Chi Keung; Ogucu, Fatma

2012-01-01

This paper explores price regulation and relative price convergence in the Canadian retail gasoline market. We use monthly data (2000–2010) on retail gasoline prices in 60 Canadian cities to investigate (i) whether the retail gasoline market in Canada has experienced a relative price convergence to the mean, which is expected, given the increased economic integration across Canadian provinces; and (ii) whether the introduction of price regulation mechanisms in New Brunswick and Nova Scotia in July 2006 had any impact on the price convergence in these provinces. We use a nonlinear panel unit root test and find solid evidence that Canadian retail gasoline markets are well integrated across locales; however, the share of converging cities reveals a significant decline since July of 2006. The impact of price regulation on price convergence is mixed; our results indicate that since the enactment of the regulation in all New Brunswick cities (9) included in the dataset, gasoline prices converge to the national mean. Volatility of price is also significantly reduced. In contrast, in the wake of price regulation in Nova Scotia, all 6 cities of the province are non-convergent to the mean with increased volatility and overall price level. - Highlights: ► The paper examines price regulation and convergence of gasoline prices in Canada. ► Overall in 2000–2010 the Canadian retail gasoline market was well integrated. ► Price convergence across cities has significantly declined since July 2006. ► The impact of price regulation at province level on a price convergence is mixed. ► The paper relies on the most advanced nonlinear panel unit root test.

Prospects for Parity Non-conservation Experiments with Highly Charged Heavy Ions

OpenAIRE

Maul, M.; Schäfer, A.; Greiner, W.; Indelicato, P.

1996-01-01

We discuss the prospects for parity non-conservation experiments with highly charged heavy ions. Energy levels and parity mixing for heavy ions with two to five electrons are calculated. We investigate two-photon-transitions and the possibility to observe interference effects between weak-matrix elements and Stark matrix elements for periodic electric field configurations.

Quantifying the risk of an increase in the prices of non-energy products by combining the portfolio and input-output approaches

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Suzuki, Kengo; Uchiyama, Yohji

2010-01-01

An increase in the price of imported fossil fuels indirectly increases the producer price in non-energy sectors; however, this indirect influence cannot be taken into account by the traditional portfolio approach. This study proposes an analytical framework combining the input-output (I-O) model and the portfolio approach that can take the indirect influence into account. A risk of an increase in the producer price in Japanese non-energy sectors during the period 1970-2000 is estimated, and the causes of a decrease in the risk through the analysis period are clarified by decomposing an index of the risk. The result indicates that almost all non-energy sectors have decreased this risk during the analysis period. The degree and cause of the decrease depends on a sector's location in the hierarchical structure of Japanese industries. For example, assembly sectors have decreased their risk mainly as the result of improvement in energy usage by upstream sectors, such as material sectors, rather than their own improvements. Proper policies considering such a structure are required to decrease the risk further because the effort taken to do so is seldom motivated by economic profit.

Simulation of current pricing-tendencies in the German electricity market for private consumption

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mueller, Moritz; Sensfuss, Frank; Wietschel, Martin

2007-01-01

The German electricity market for private consumption is characterized by increasing prices and low participation of the consumers. This prompts us to investigate the interdependencies between the customers' engagement in the market and the suppliers' pricing strategies. Based on an analysis of the German retail market, an agent-based simulation model is developed. Whereas the behaviour of private customers is calibrated on field data, the suppliers learn to maximize profits with a feedback-learning heuristic. The simulation results show a tendency of rising prices, which are created without the assumption of tacit collusion among suppliers. We conclude that in Germany the current market pressure of private customers may not be a sufficient incentive for suppliers to lower electricity prices. (author)

NON-PRICE PROMOTION IMPACTS ON COTTON AND SOYBEANS EXPORTS UNDER EXCHANGE RATE LINKED SUBSIDIES

OpenAIRE

Paudel, Laxmi; Adhikari, Murali; Houston, Jack E.; Kinnucan, Henry W.

2003-01-01

Issue of exchange rate-linked subsidies for non-price export promotion has recently emerged as an area of interest among marketing researchers because of fluctuating strength of US dollars and position of US agricultural goods in export markets. One solution to mitigate these impacts was to link the federal export promotion subsidies with the changing value of US dollars. In the study, an equilibrium displacement framework was developed to analyze the effectiveness of exchange rate-linked sub...

Stocking and price-reduction decisions for non-instantaneous deteriorating items under time value of money

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Freddy Andrés Pérez

2019-01-01

Full Text Available Deteriorating inventory models are used as decision support tools for managers primarily, although not exclusively, in the retail trade. The mathematical modeling of deteriorating items allows managers to analyze their inventory management systems to identify areas that can be improved and to measure the corresponding potential benefits. This study develops an enhanced deteriorating inventory model for optimizing the inventory control strategy of companies operating in sectors with deteriorating products. In contrast with previous studies, our model holistically accounts for the overall financial effect of a company’s policies on product price discounting and on inventory shortages while considering the time value of money (TVM. We aim to find the optimal replenishment strategy and the optimal price reductions that maximize the discounted profit function of this analytical model over a fixed planning horizon. To this end, we use an economic order quantity model to study the effects of the TVM and inflation. The model accounts for pre- and post-deterioration discounts on the selling price for non-instantaneous deteriorating products with the demand rate being a function of time, price-discounts and stock-keeping units. Shortages are allowed and partially backordered, depending on the waiting time until the next replenishment. Additionally, we consider the effect of discounts on the selling price when items have either an instant deterioration or a fixed lifetime. We propose five implementable solutions for obtaining the optimal values, and examine their performance. We present some numerical examples to illustrate the applicability of the models, and carry out a sensitivity analysis. The study reveals that accounting for TVM and inventory shortages is complex and time-consuming; nevertheless, we find that accounting for TVM and shortages can be valuable in terms of increasing the yields of companies. Finally, we provide some important

California's crisis: An exploratory analysis of lifestyle, energy use, and conservation

Science.gov (United States)

Gossard, Marcia Hill

Electricity is one of the most serious issues of the 21st century. Modern human societies have become completely dependent upon energy to power modern life---resulting in unwanted environmental effects. Although electricity itself is invisible, many of the most conspicuous household items consume the most electricity. The 2001 energy crisis in California provides a unique opportunity to study how people negotiated their lives during a time of perceived resource scarcity, increased electricity prices, and threats of blackouts. Combining cultural and environmental literatures, I argued that changes in resource availability (perceived or real) led to unsettled lives in which beliefs, rituals and ways of behaving began to be questioned---resulting in new patterns of action organized around lifestyle. As a conceptual framework, lifestyle can be useful for understanding the patterns of people's everyday lives, the objects they consume, and the degrees to which those lifestyles affect the environment. Using data from the California Residential Electricity Conservation Study (CRECS), this research explores the ways households navigated and used different conservation strategies during the summers of 2001 and 2002. Analysis of Behavioral Conservation Strategies (BCS) that require ongoing effort and attention by household residents in order to achieve successful conservation outcomes (e.g., turning off lights or regulating indoor temperature), and Consumer Investment Strategies (CIS) that are one-time purchases improving efficiency (e.g., purchase of an appliance or fixture) reveal different strategies of action over the two years. Wealth indicators and time constraints were less important for predicting conservation, while cultural differences and household composition were better predictors of conservation efforts. In addition, despite assumptions that people are unwilling to change their lifestyle in order to conserve electricity, households employed more strategies that

Expectations, learning, and the changing relationship between oil prices and the macroeconomy

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Milani, Fabio [Department of Economics, 3151 Social Science Plaza, University of California, Irvine, CA 92697-5100 (United States)

2009-11-15

This paper estimates a structural general equilibrium model to investigate the changing relationship between the oil price and macroeconomic variables. The oil price, through the role of oil in production and consumption, affects aggregate demand and supply in the model. The assumption of rational expectations is relaxed in favor of learning. Oil prices, therefore, affect the economy through an additional channel, i.e. through their effect on the formation of agents' beliefs. The estimated learning dynamics indicates that economic agents' perceptions about the effects of oil prices on the economy have changed over time: oil prices were perceived to have large effects on output and inflation in the 1970s, but only milder effects after the mid-1980s. Since expectations play a large role in the determination of output and inflation, the effects of oil price increases on expectations can magnify the response of macroeconomic variables to oil price shocks. In the estimated model, in fact, the implied responses of output and inflation to oil price shocks were much more pronounced in the 1970s than in 2008. Therefore, through the time variation in the impact of oil prices on beliefs, the paper can successfully explain the observed weakening of the effects of oil price shocks on real activity and inflation. (author)

Expectations, learning, and the changing relationship between oil prices and the macroeconomy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Milani, Fabio

2009-01-01

This paper estimates a structural general equilibrium model to investigate the changing relationship between the oil price and macroeconomic variables. The oil price, through the role of oil in production and consumption, affects aggregate demand and supply in the model. The assumption of rational expectations is relaxed in favor of learning. Oil prices, therefore, affect the economy through an additional channel, i.e. through their effect on the formation of agents' beliefs. The estimated learning dynamics indicates that economic agents' perceptions about the effects of oil prices on the economy have changed over time: oil prices were perceived to have large effects on output and inflation in the 1970s, but only milder effects after the mid-1980s. Since expectations play a large role in the determination of output and inflation, the effects of oil price increases on expectations can magnify the response of macroeconomic variables to oil price shocks. In the estimated model, in fact, the implied responses of output and inflation to oil price shocks were much more pronounced in the 1970s than in 2008. Therefore, through the time variation in the impact of oil prices on beliefs, the paper can successfully explain the observed weakening of the effects of oil price shocks on real activity and inflation. (author)

Road pricing, air pollution and external costs; Road pricing, luftforurening og eksternalitetsomkostninger

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Solvang Jensen, S.; Ketzel, M. (Aarhus Univ., Danmarks Miljoeundersoegelser, Afd. for Atmosfaerisk Miljoe, Roskilde (Denmark)); Skou Andersen, M. (Aarhus Univ., Danmarks Miljoeundersoegelser, Afd. for Systemanalyse, Roskilde (Denmark))

2010-06-15

The objective of this assessment is to improve the foundation for decision-making about introduction of a road pricing system that aims to reduce the health impacts and social costs of traffic-related air pollution. The analysis focuses on how road emissions, air quality, population exposure, and social costs of air pollution depend on geography (different city sizes and rural areas) and time of the day (rush hours versus non-rush hours). A review of Danish studies related to road pricing has also been carried out to assess the expected effect of road pricing on traffic performance (km travelled), vehicle composition and speed that are factors affecting air pollution. (LN)

Going cheap: determinants of bird price in the Taiwanese pet market.

Science.gov (United States)

Su, Shan; Cassey, Phillip; Vall-Llosera, Miquel; Blackburn, Tim M

2015-01-01

International wildlife trade is the largest emerging source of vertebrate invasive alien species. In order to prevent invasions, it is essential to understand the mechanics of trade and, in particular, which traded species are most likely to be released or escape into the wild. A species' economic value is a key factor, because we expect cheaper species to be less assiduously secured against escaping, and more likely to be deliberately released. Here, we investigate determinants of the price of species in the Taiwanese bird trade. Taiwan is an international hub for bird trade, and several native species are threatened by alien bird species. We investigated the relationship between the traded species sale price in Taiwan and the species availability for trade (the number of birds for sale, geographic range size and their origin, conservation and CITES status) and traits (body size, coloration, song attractiveness). We used phylogenetic generalized least squares models, with multi-model inference, to assess the variables that are best related to the price of birds in the Taiwanese pet trade. We found that species available for sale in larger numbers, native to Taiwan, not globally endangered, and small-bodied are all relatively cheaper, as too are species lacking yellow coloration and without attractive songs. Our models of price revealed high levels of phylogenetic correlation, and hence that closely related species tended to be sold for similar prices. We suggest that, on the basis of price, native species are more likely to be deliberately or accidentally released than alien species. Nevertheless, our survey of bird shops recorded 160 species alien to Taiwan (7,631 individuals), several of which are for sale cheaply and in large numbers. Alien bird species in trade therefore present an ongoing, non-trivial invasion risk on the island.

The Value of Multivariate Model Sophistication: An Application to pricing Dow Jones Industrial Average options

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Rombouts, Jeroen V.K.; Stentoft, Lars; Violante, Francesco

innovation for a Laplace innovation assumption improves the pricing in a smaller way. Apart from investigating directly the value of model sophistication in terms of dollar losses, we also use the model condence set approach to statistically infer the set of models that delivers the best pricing performance.......We assess the predictive accuracy of a large number of multivariate volatility models in terms of pricing options on the Dow Jones Industrial Average. We measure the value of model sophistication in terms of dollar losses by considering a set 248 multivariate models that differer...

On conservation of renewable resources with stock-dependent return and non-concave production

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Olson, Lars J.; Roy, Santanu

1994-05-01

An analysis is presented of the intertemporal choice foundations underlying the conservation or extinction of renewable resources when the resource production function is non-concave and the immediate return function depends on both current consumption and the size of the resource stock. This case may exhibit nonlinear dynamics and extinction is possible from high stocks even if conservation occurs from lower stocks. The paper focusses on the influence of preferences and the production function on the efficiency of: global conservation, the existence of a safe standard of conservation, or extinction. We show that conservation is efficient under weaker conditions than the 'δ-productivity' requirements derived in models where return function is not stock-dependent. The marginal rate of substitution between investment and the stock plays an important role in addition to the discount factor and the marginal productivity of the resource. Extinction need not be optimal even if the intrinsic growth rate of the resource is less than the external rate of return. Our analysis demonstrates the potential role of taxes, subsidies, demand forces, and harvest costs in determining the efficiency of conservation or extinction. 3 figs., 1 appendix, 24 refs

On conservation of renewable resources with stock-dependent return and non-concave production

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Olson, Lars J. [Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics, University of Maryland, College Park, MD (United States); Roy, Santanu [Econometric Institute, Erasmus University, Rotterdam (Netherlands)

1994-05-01

An analysis is presented of the intertemporal choice foundations underlying the conservation or extinction of renewable resources when the resource production function is non-concave and the immediate return function depends on both current consumption and the size of the resource stock. This case may exhibit nonlinear dynamics and extinction is possible from high stocks even if conservation occurs from lower stocks. The paper focusses on the influence of preferences and the production function on the efficiency of: global conservation, the existence of a safe standard of conservation, or extinction. We show that conservation is efficient under weaker conditions than the `{delta}-productivity` requirements derived in models where return function is not stock-dependent. The marginal rate of substitution between investment and the stock plays an important role in addition to the discount factor and the marginal productivity of the resource. Extinction need not be optimal even if the intrinsic growth rate of the resource is less than the external rate of return. Our analysis demonstrates the potential role of taxes, subsidies, demand forces, and harvest costs in determining the efficiency of conservation or extinction. 3 figs., 1 appendix, 24 refs.

Prices and Price Setting

NARCIS (Netherlands)

R.P. Faber (Riemer)

2010-01-01

textabstractThis thesis studies price data and tries to unravel the underlying economic processes of why firms have chosen these prices. It focuses on three aspects of price setting. First, it studies whether the existence of a suggested price has a coordinating effect on the prices of firms.

Censored Quantile Instrumental Variable Estimates of the Price Elasticity of Expenditure on Medical Care.

Science.gov (United States)

Kowalski, Amanda

2016-01-02

Efforts to control medical care costs depend critically on how individuals respond to prices. I estimate the price elasticity of expenditure on medical care using a censored quantile instrumental variable (CQIV) estimator. CQIV allows estimates to vary across the conditional expenditure distribution, relaxes traditional censored model assumptions, and addresses endogeneity with an instrumental variable. My instrumental variable strategy uses a family member's injury to induce variation in an individual's own price. Across the conditional deciles of the expenditure distribution, I find elasticities that vary from -0.76 to -1.49, which are an order of magnitude larger than previous estimates.

ANALYSIS OF EXCHANGE RATE LINKED SUBSIDIES FOR NON-PRICE EXPORT PROMOTION: THE CASE OF COTTON

OpenAIRE

Paudel, Laxmi; Adhikari, Murali; Houston, Jack E.; Kinnucan, Henry W.

2002-01-01

An equilibrium displacement framework was developed to evaluate the effect of exchange rate linked subsidies for non-price export promotion for US cotton. Study results show that an increase in promotion expenditure increased the dollar value and producer welfare of cotton growers. The gross gain to the domestic cotton producers from the exchange-rate linked subsidy scheme was positive. These evidences support exchange rate linked subsidies for US cotton export promotion.

The economics of power generation in Alberta : the pool price impact of Genesee Unit 3

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Topping, D.

2003-01-01

Alberta power pool prices for year 2000 were reviewed. The model assumptions were: studies based on PROSYM market simulations; base-load units offered at incremental cost; and, considerations in those cases where system gas units were modeled as coal units. The current situation in Alberta was reviewed. The Genesee 3 coal-fired facility is expected to be completed in the Winter 2004-2005 with an efficiency of 8 to 18 per cent better than other coal units. A graph was shown to examine the expected impact of Genesee 3 on Alberta prices. Electricity prices would increase during the period 2005-2008 without Genesee 3. Alberta prices are affected by factors such as: load-resource balance, fuel prices, cost of new capacity, offer strategy, available transmission, and tie lines. A capacity surplus is expected for the period 2003-2008. In addition, good correlation is expected for pool prices with gas prices. With Genesee 3 in operation, lower pool prices are expected in Alberta. figs

A DYNAMIC APPROACH TO CALCULATE SHADOW PRICES OF WATER RESOURCES FOR NINE MAJOR RIVERS IN CHINA

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

Jing HE; Xikang CHEN; Yong SHI

2006-01-01

China is experiencing from serious water issues. There are many differences among the Nine Major Rivers basins of China in the construction of dikes, reservoirs, floodgates, flood discharge projects, flood diversion projects, water ecological construction, water conservancy management, etc.The shadow prices of water resources for Nine Major Rivers can provide suggestions to the Chinese government. This article develops a dynamic shadow prices approach based on a multiperiod input-output optimizing model. Unlike previous approaches, the new model is based on the dynamic computable general equilibrium (DCGE) model to solve the problem of marginal long-term prices of water resources.First, definitions and algorithms of DCGE are elaborated. Second, the results of shadow prices of water resources for Nine Major Rivers in 1949-2050 in China using the National Water Conservancy input-holding-output table for Nine Major Rivers in 1999 are listed. A conclusion of this article is that the shadow prices of water resources for Nine Major Rivers are largely based on the extent of scarcity.Selling prices of water resources should be revised via the usage of parameters representing shadow prices.

Market Entry, Product Quality And Price Competition

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mathur Sameer

2015-08-01

Full Text Available We study an entrant firm’s product quality choice and the price competition arising between the entrant and the incumbent firm. We show that the entrant firm should introduce a relatively higher (lower quality than the incumbent firm when the consumers’ valuation for quality is sufficiently large (small. We also study how the incumbent firm modifies its price in response to the ensuing price competition. We find that the incumbent firm should decrease its price. We also profile how the incumbent firm’s price non-linearly depends on consumers’ valuation for quality.

Retail price as an outcome measure for the effectiveness of drug law enforcement.

Science.gov (United States)

Bright, David A; Ritter, Alison

2010-09-01

One outcome measure of law enforcement effectiveness is the reduction in drug consumption which occurs as a result of law enforcement interventions. A theoretical relationship between drug consumption and retail price has promoted the use of retail price as a surrogate measure for consumption. In the current article, retail price is examined as a potential outcome measure for the effectiveness of law enforcement. The predictions regarding the relationship between law enforcement intensity and price are only partially supported by research. Explanations for the disconnect between the drug law enforcement activity and retail price include: rapid adaptation by market players, enforcement swamping, assumptions of rational actors, short-run versus long-run effects, structure of the illicit market, simultaneous changes that affect price in perverse ways, the role of violence in markets, and data limitations. Researchers who use retail price as an outcome measure need to take into account the complex relationship between drug law enforcement interventions and the retail price of illicit drugs. Viable outcome measures which can be used as complements to retail price are worth investigation. Copyright 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Testing surrogacy assumptions: can threatened and endangered plants be grouped by biological similarity and abundances?

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Judy P Che-Castaldo

Full Text Available There is renewed interest in implementing surrogate species approaches in conservation planning due to the large number of species in need of management but limited resources and data. One type of surrogate approach involves selection of one or a few species to represent a larger group of species requiring similar management actions, so that protection and persistence of the selected species would result in conservation of the group of species. However, among the criticisms of surrogate approaches is the need to test underlying assumptions, which remain rarely examined. In this study, we tested one of the fundamental assumptions underlying use of surrogate species in recovery planning: that there exist groups of threatened and endangered species that are sufficiently similar to warrant similar management or recovery criteria. Using a comprehensive database of all plant species listed under the U.S. Endangered Species Act and tree-based random forest analysis, we found no evidence of species groups based on a set of distributional and biological traits or by abundances and patterns of decline. Our results suggested that application of surrogate approaches for endangered species recovery would be unjustified. Thus, conservation planning focused on individual species and their patterns of decline will likely be required to recover listed species.

EU emission trading scheme and the effect on the price of electricity

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2004-01-01

The Electricity Market Working Group and the Climate Change Policy Working Group of the Nordic Council of Ministers, has commissioned ECON Analysis to prepare this report. The report analyses the demand and supply of GHG emission allowances and the price of emission allowances for the period 2005-2007 and 2008-2012 and the effect on the electricity price in the Nordic electricity market. The demand for emissions allowances has then been estimated for different scenarios, with different assumption on burden sharing between sectors and international participation and the supply of emission allowances is determined by the marginal abatement costs. Based on available information on abatement costs the supply of allowances is then estimated. The market balance between the demand and supply for allowances then determines the price of emission allowances. The effect on the electricity price is simulated with ECON's model for the Nordic power market to quantitatively estimate the effect from emissions trading on the electricity price, production, consumption, trade, etc. (BA)

Relationship between the Uncompensated Price Elasticity and the Income Elasticity of Demand under Conditions of Additive Preferences.

Science.gov (United States)

Sabatelli, Lorenzo

2016-01-01

Income and price elasticity of demand quantify the responsiveness of markets to changes in income and in prices, respectively. Under the assumptions of utility maximization and preference independence (additive preferences), mathematical relationships between income elasticity values and the uncompensated own and cross price elasticity of demand are here derived using the differential approach to demand analysis. Key parameters are: the elasticity of the marginal utility of income, and the average budget share. The proposed method can be used to forecast the direct and indirect impact of price changes and of financial instruments of policy using available estimates of the income elasticity of demand.

Nucs down in Germany-Prices up in Europe?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bode, Sven

2009-01-01

Current legislation on power production from nuclear energy in Germany defines certain remaining quantities of permitted electricity production for nuclear power plants. These quantities are defined for each nuclear power plant and are measured in TWh. In the discussion about climate protection and market trend of electricity prices, it is regularly stated by policy makers that the nuclear phase-out will result in an increase in electricity prices and CO 2 emissions. As a consequence a revision is proposed, especially from the Liberals (FDP) and Conservatives (CDU). The following article discusses this issue analysing the different options investors and operators under different scenarios have. It shows firstly that both emissions and power prices can indeed increase, and secondly that the mere discussion about potentially reversing the phasing-out decision can lead to an increase in electricity prices as investment behaviour may change based on expectations regarding future regulation. I conclude that - ceteris paribus - the nuclear phase-out is likely to result in an increase in CO 2 emissions and prices.

Does Portuguese economy support crude oil conservation hypothesis?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bashiri Behmiri, Niaz; Pires Manso, José R.

2012-01-01

This paper examines cointegration relationships and Granger causality nexus in a trivariate framework among oil consumption, economic growth and international oil price in Portugal. For this purpose, we employ two Granger causality approaches: the Johansen cointegration test and vector error correction model (VECM) and the Toda–Yamamoto approaches. Cointegration test proves the existence of a long run equilibrium relationship among these variables and VECM and Toda–Yamamoto Granger causality tests indicate that there is bidirectional causality between crude oil consumption and economic growth (feed back hypothesis). Therefore, the Portuguese economy does not support crude oil conservation hypothesis. Consequently, policymakers should consider that implementing oil conservation and environmental policies may negatively impact on the Portuguese economic growth. - Highlights: ► We examine Granger causality among oil consumption, GDP and oil price in Portugal. ► VECM and Toda–Yamamoto tests found bidirectional causality among oil and GDP. ► Portuguese economy does not support the crude oil conservation hypothesis.

The Impact of Input and Output Prices on The Household Economic Behavior of Rice-Livestock Integrated Farming System (Rlifs) and Non Rlifs Farmers

Science.gov (United States)

Lindawati, L.; Kusnadi, N.; Kuntjoro, S. U.; Swastika, D. K. S.

2018-02-01

Integrated farming system is a system that emphasized linkages and synergism of farming units waste utilization. The objective of the study was to analyze the impact of input and output prices on both Rice Livestock Integrated Farming System (RLIFS) and non RLIFS farmers. The study used econometric model in the form of a simultaneous equations system consisted of 36 equations (18 behavior and 18 identity equations). The impact of changes in some variables was obtained through simulation of input and output prices on simultaneous equations. The results showed that the price increasing of the seed, SP-36, urea, medication/vitamins, manure, bran, straw had negative impact on production of the rice, cow, manure, bran, straw and household income. The decrease in the rice and cow production, production input usage, allocation of family labor, rice and cow business income was greater in RLIFS than non RLIFS farmers. The impact of rising rice and cow cattle prices in the two groups of farmers was not too much different because (1) farming waste wasn’t used effectively (2) manure and straw had small proportion of production costs. The increase of input and output price didn’t have impact on production costs and household expenditures on RLIFS.

Real Time Pricing and the Real Live Firm

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Moezzi, Mithra; Goldman, Charles; Sezgen, Osman; Bharvirkar, Ranjit; Hopper, Nicole

2004-05-26

Energy economists have long argued the benefits of real time pricing (RTP) of electricity. Their basis for modeling customers response to short-term fluctuations in electricity prices are based on theories of rational firm behavior, where management strives to minimize operating costs and optimize profit, and labor, capital and energy are potential substitutes in the firm's production function. How well do private firms and public sector institutions operating conditions, knowledge structures, decision-making practices, and external relationships comport with these assumptions and how might this impact price response? We discuss these issues on the basis of interviews with 29 large (over 2 MW) industrial, commercial, and institutional customers in the Niagara Mohawk Power Corporation service territory that have faced day-ahead electricity market prices since 1998. We look at stories interviewees told about why and how they respond to RTP, why some customers report that they can't, and why even if they can, they don't. Some firms respond as theorized, and we describe their load curtailment strategies. About half of our interviewees reported that they were unable to either shift or forego electricity consumption even when prices are high ($0.50/kWh). Reasons customers gave for why they weren't price-responsive include implicit value placed on reliability, pricing structures, lack of flexibility in adjusting production inputs, just-in-time practices, perceived barriers to onsite generation, and insufficient time. We draw these observations into a framework that could help refine economic theory of dynamic pricing by providing real-world descriptions of how firms behave and why.

Structural change and forecasting long-run energy prices

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bernard, J.T.; Khalaf, L.

2004-01-01

Fluctuating energy prices have a significant impact on the economies of industrialized nations. A recent study has shown a strong non-linear relationship between changes in oil prices and growth in gross domestic product (GDP). In order to forecast the behaviour of energy prices, a complete model must take into account domestic and international supply and demand conditions, market regulations, technological advances and geopolitics. In 1999, Pindyck suggested that for long-term forecasting, a simple model should be adopted where prices grow in real terms and at a fixed rate. This paper tests the statistical significance of Pindyck's suggested class of econometric equations that model the behaviour of long-run real energy prices. The models assume mean-reverting prices with continuous and random changes in their level and trend. They are estimated using Kalman filtering. The authors used simulation-based procedures to address the issue of non-standard test statistics and nuisance parameters. Results were reported for a standard Monte Carlo test and a maximized Monte Carlo test. Results shown statistically significant instabilities for coal and natural gas prices, but not for crude oil prices. Various models were differentiated using out-of-sample forecasting exercises. 25 refs., 3 tabs

Coarse Thinking and Pricing a Financial Option

OpenAIRE

Siddiqi, Hammad

2009-01-01

Mullainathan et al [Quarterly Journal of Economics, May 2008] present a formalization of the concept of coarse thinking in the context of a model of persuasion. The essential idea behind coarse thinking is that people put situations into categories and the values assigned to attributes in a given situation are affected by the values of corresponding attributes in other co-categorized situations. We derive a new option pricing formula based on the assumption that the market consists of coars...

Quantitative Model of Price Diffusion and Market Friction Based on Trading as a Mechanistic Random Process

Science.gov (United States)

Daniels, Marcus G.; Farmer, J. Doyne; Gillemot, László; Iori, Giulia; Smith, Eric

2003-03-01

We model trading and price formation in a market under the assumption that order arrival and cancellations are Poisson random processes. This model makes testable predictions for the most basic properties of markets, such as the diffusion rate of prices (which is the standard measure of financial risk) and the spread and price impact functions (which are the main determinants of transaction cost). Guided by dimensional analysis, simulation, and mean-field theory, we find scaling relations in terms of order flow rates. We show that even under completely random order flow the need to store supply and demand to facilitate trading induces anomalous diffusion and temporal structure in prices.

Price Strategies between a Dominant Retailer and Manufacturers

Science.gov (United States)

Cho, Hsun Jung; Mak, Hou Kit

2009-08-01

Supply chain-related game theoretical applications have been discussed for decades. This research accounts for the emergence of a dominant retailer, and the retailer Stackelberg pricing models of distribution channels. Research in the channel pricing game may use different definitions of pricing decision variables. In this research, we pay attentions to the retailer Stackelberg pricing game, and discuss the effects when choosing different decision variables. According the literature it was shown that the strategies between channel members depend critically on the form of the demand function. Two different demand forms—linear and non-linear—will be considered in our numerical example respectively. Our major finding is the outcomes are not relative to manufacturers' pricing decisions but to the retailer's pricing decision and choosing percentage margin as retailer's decision variable is the best strategy for the retailer but worst for manufacturers. The numerical results show that it is consistence between linear and non-linear demand form.

Energy prices, equalization and federalism

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Courchene, T.J.

2005-01-01

A rise in oil prices over the last 30 years has shaped the debate on the equalization formula as well as the nature of fiscal federalism. The oil shocks of 1973 and 1979 contributed to the creation of the National Energy Program (NEP) in 1980 and the Energy Pricing and Taxation Agreement (EPTA) between Ottawa and Alberta in 1981. The current surge in oil prices, to recent highs of $70 a barrel has resulted in a new debate on energy pricing, equalization and fiscal frameworks. This article presented a review of the history of oil and federalism, and proposed a remedy to the horizontal fiscal imbalance by allocating the fixed equalization pool in accordance with fiscal capacity disparities relating to non-resource revenues. An interprovincial revenue-sharing pool was suggested for resource revenues, agreed to and operated by the provinces. It was suggested that after the price spike in 1973 in which the price of oil tripled, a key part of the rationale for imposing export taxes on oil equal to the difference between domestic and world prices was that the federal government could subsidize oil imports into eastern Canada and maintain a uniform domestic price across the country. By continuing to subsidize imports and maintaining a domestic price below the world price, the government has been diverting potential energy revenues from energy-rich provinces and transferring them directly to Canadians in terms of subsidized energy prices. It was noted that energy price surges cannot send equalization payments soaring as they did before because of the 2004 Framework Agreement, in which the overall equalization will be increased to $10.9 billion. A 2-tier approach to equalization was presented, in which it was suggested that the $10.9 billion pool should be allocated with fiscal capacity disparities relating to non-resource revenues. The creation of a revenue sharing pool for resource revenues was recommended. It was suggested that the 2 approaches will result in a strategic

Energy prices, equalization and federalism

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Courchene, T.J. [Queen' s Univ., Kingston, ON (Canada). School of Policy Studies

2005-10-01

A rise in oil prices over the last 30 years has shaped the debate on the equalization formula as well as the nature of fiscal federalism. The oil shocks of 1973 and 1979 contributed to the creation of the National Energy Program (NEP) in 1980 and the Energy Pricing and Taxation Agreement (EPTA) between Ottawa and Alberta in 1981. The current surge in oil prices, to recent highs of $70 a barrel has resulted in a new debate on energy pricing, equalization and fiscal frameworks. This article presented a review of the history of oil and federalism, and proposed a remedy to the horizontal fiscal imbalance by allocating the fixed equalization pool in accordance with fiscal capacity disparities relating to non-resource revenues. An interprovincial revenue-sharing pool was suggested for resource revenues, agreed to and operated by the provinces. It was suggested that after the price spike in 1973 in which the price of oil tripled, a key part of the rationale for imposing export taxes on oil equal to the difference between domestic and world prices was that the federal government could subsidize oil imports into eastern Canada and maintain a uniform domestic price across the country. By continuing to subsidize imports and maintaining a domestic price below the world price, the government has been diverting potential energy revenues from energy-rich provinces and transferring them directly to Canadians in terms of subsidized energy prices. It was noted that energy price surges cannot send equalization payments soaring as they did before because of the 2004 Framework Agreement, in which the overall equalization will be increased to $10.9 billion. A 2-tier approach to equalization was presented, in which it was suggested that the $10.9 billion pool should be allocated with fiscal capacity disparities relating to non-resource revenues. The creation of a revenue sharing pool for resource revenues was recommended. It was suggested that the 2 approaches will result in a strategic

Competitive targeted advertising with price discrimination

OpenAIRE

Esteves, Rosa Branca; Resende, Joana

2013-01-01

This paper investigates the effects of price discrimination by means of targeted advertising in a duopolistic market where the distribution of consumers’ preferences is discrete and where advertising plays two major roles. It is used by firms as a way to transmit relevant information to otherwise uninformed consumers and it is used as a price discrimination device. We compare the firms’ optimal marketing mix (advertising and pricing) when they adopt mass advertising/non-discrimination strateg...

Determination of non-market values to inform conservation strategies for the threatened Alistana-Sanabresa cattle breed.

Science.gov (United States)

Martin-Collado, D; Diaz, C; Drucker, A G; Carabaño, M J; Zander, K K

2014-08-01

Livestock breed-related public good functions are often used to justify support for endangered breed conservation despite the fact that little is known about such non-market values. We show how stated preference techniques can be used to assess the non-market values that people place on livestock breeds. Through the application of a case study choice experiment survey in Zamora province, Spain, the total economic value (TEV) of the threatened Alistana-Sanabresa (AS) cattle breed was investigated. An analysis of the relative importance of the non-market components of its TEV and an assessment of the socio-economic variables that influence people's valuation of such components is used to inform conservation strategy design. Overall, the findings reveal that the AS breed had significant non-market values associated with it and that the value that respondents placed on each specific public good function also varied significantly. Functions related with indirect use cultural and existence values were much more highly valued than landscape maintenance values. These high cultural and existence values (totalling over 80% of TEV) suggest that an AS in situ conservation strategy will be required to secure such values. As part of such a strategy, incentive mechanisms will be needed to permit farmers to capture some of these public good values and thus be able to afford to maintain breed population numbers at socially desirable levels. One such mechanism could be related to the development of breed-related agritourism initiatives, with a view to enhancing private good values and providing an important addition to continued direct support. Where linked with cultural dimensions, niche product market development, including through improving AS breed-related product quality and brand recognition may also have a role to play as part of such an overall conservation and use strategy. We conclude that livestock breed conservation strategies with the highest potential to maximise

7 CFR 550.47 - Cost and price analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-01-01

... 7 Agriculture 6 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Cost and price analysis. 550.47 Section 550.47... OF AGRICULTURE GENERAL ADMINISTRATIVE POLICY FOR NON-ASSISTANCE COOPERATIVE AGREEMENTS Management of Agreements Procurement Standards § 550.47 Cost and price analysis. Some form of cost or price analysis shall...

The response of the Beijing carbon emissions allowance price (BJC) to macroeconomic and energy price indices

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zeng, Shihong; Nan, Xin; Liu, Chao; Chen, Jiuying

2017-01-01

In 2013, China opened pilot carbon emission trading markets in seven provinces, where carbon emission allowances have now been traded for more than two years. In this paper, we employ a structural VAR model and the price of the Beijing carbon emission allowance to study the dynamic relationships among the price of the carbon emission allowance, economic development and the price of energy. This paper's data cover the period from April 2, 2014 to November 6, 2015. This paper provides information that will be helpful to both investors and governmental policy makers. The results show that (1) an increase of one standard deviation in the coal price leads to an initial increase of approximately 0.1% in the Beijing carbon price. After 2 days, there is a decrease of less than 0.1%, and the price gradually increases by approximately 0.1% after 30 days; (2) the price of the Beijing carbon emission allowance is mainly affected by its own historical price; (3) the Beijing carbon emission allowance price, crude oil price, natural gas price and economic development have positive – albeit non-significant – correlations. - Highlights: • This paper examines the response of the Beijing carbon emission allowance price. • A rise in coal prices will have different effects in different lag stages. • There are positive correlations between the BJC and economic development.

Targeting health subsidies through a non-price mechanism: A randomized controlled trial in Kenya

Science.gov (United States)

Dupas, Pascaline; Hoffmann, Vivian; Kremer, Michael; Zwane, Alix Peterson

2016-01-01

Free provision of preventive health products can dramatically increase access in low income countries. A cost concern about free provision is that some recipients may not use the product, wasting resources (over-inclusion). Yet charging a price to screen out non-users may screen out poor people who need and would use the product (over-exclusion). We report on a randomized controlled trial of a screening mechanism that combines the free provision of chlorine solution for water treatment with a small non-monetary cost (household vouchers that need to be redeemed monthly in order). Relative to a non-voucher free distribution program, this mechanism reduces the quantity of chlorine procured by 60 percentage points, but reduces the share of households whose stored water tests positive for chlorine residual by only one percentage point, dramatically improving the tradeoff between over-inclusion and over-exclusion. PMID:27563091

An Economic Analysis of Brand-Level Strategic Pricing Between Coca-Cola Company and Pepsi

OpenAIRE

Dhar, Tirtha; Chavas, Jean- Paul; Cotterill, Ronald W.; Gould, Brian W.

2005-01-01

We investigate market structure and strategic pricing for leading brands sold by Coca-Cola Company and PepsiCo. in the context of a flexible demand specification (i.e., nonlinear AIDS) and structural price equations. Our flexible and generalized approach does not rely upon the often used ad hoc linear approximations to demand and profit-maximizing first-order conditions, andthe assumption of Nash-Bertrand competition. We estimate a conjectural variation model and test for different brand-leve...

International crude oil prices and the stock prices of clean energy and technology companies: Evidence from non-linear cointegration tests with unknown structural breaks

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bondia, Ripsy; Ghosh, Sajal; Kanjilal, Kakali

2016-01-01

Increasing greenhouse gas emissions, exhaustibility and geo-politics induced price volatility of crude oil has magnified the importance of looking for alternative sources of energy. In this paper, we investigate the long term relationship of stock prices of alternative energy companies with oil prices in a multivariate framework. To this end, we use threshold cointegration tests, which endogenously incorporate possible regime shifts in long run relationship of underlying variables. In contrast to the findings of the previous study by Managi and Okimoto (2013), our results indicate presence of cointegration among the variables with two endogenous structural breaks. This study confirms that ignoring the presence of structural breaks in a long time series data, as has been done in previous study, can produce misleading results. In terms of causality, while the stock prices of alternative energy companies are impacted by technology stock prices, oil prices and interest rates in the short run, there is no causality running towards prices of alternative energy stock prices in the long run. The study discusses the possible reasons behind the empirical findings and concludes with a discussion on short run and long run investment opportunities for the investors. - Highlights: • Cointegration between alternative energy companies stock price and oil price. • Threshold cointegration tests are employed. • Cointegration among the variables exists with two endogenous structural breaks. • Alternative energy companies stock price impacted by oil prices in short run. • No causality running towards prices of alternative energy stock prices in long run.

7 CFR 1000.50 - Class prices, component prices, and advanced pricing factors.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-01-01

... 7 Agriculture 9 2010-01-01 2009-01-01 true Class prices, component prices, and advanced pricing... advanced pricing factors. Class prices per hundredweight of milk containing 3.5 percent butterfat, component prices, and advanced pricing factors shall be as follows. The prices and pricing factors described...

Price projections of feedstocks for biofuels and biopower in the U.S

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Langholtz, Matthew; Graham, Robin; Eaton, Laurence; Perlack, Robert; Hellwinkel, Chad; De La Torre Ugarte, Daniel G.

2012-01-01

The economic availability of biomass resources is a critical component in evaluating the commercial viability of biofuels. To evaluate projected farmgate prices and grower payments needed to procure 295 million dry Mg (325 million dry tons) of biomass in the U.S. by 2022, this research employs POLYSYS, an economic model of the U.S. agriculture sector. A price-run simulation suggests that a farmgate price of $58.42 Mg −1 ($53.00 dry ton −1 ) is needed to procure this supply, while a demand-run simulation suggests that prices of $34.56 and $71.61 Mg −1 ($30.00 and $62.00 dry ton −1 ) in are needed in 2012 and 2022, respectively, to procure the same supply, under baseline yield assumptions. Grower payments are reported as farmgate price minus resource-specific harvest costs. - Highlights: ► We model biomass prices needed to meet projected demand for biofuels and biopower. ► Combined projected demand is 295 million dry Mg of biomass by 2022. ► A farmgate price of $58.42 Mg −1 in 2022 meets demand under a price-run scenario. ► A farmgate price of $71.61 Mg −1 in 2022 meets demand under a demand-run scenario. ► Higher farmgate prices incentivize adoption of dedicated crops.

Public Versus Private: Does It Matter for Water Conservation? Insights from California

Science.gov (United States)

Kallis, Giorgos; Ray, Isha; Fulton, Julian; McMahon, James E.

2010-01-01

This article asks three connected questions: First, does the public view private and public utilities differently, and if so, does this affect attitudes to conservation? Second, do public and private utilities differ in their approaches to conservation? Finally, do differences in the approaches of the utilities, if any, relate to differences in public attitudes? We survey public attitudes in California toward (hypothetical but plausible) voluntary and mandated water conservation, as well as to price increases, during a recent period of shortage. We do this by interviewing households in three pairs of adjacent public and private utilities. We also survey managers of public and private urban water utilities to see if they differ in their approaches to conservation and to their customers. On the user side we do not find pronounced differences, though a minority of customers in all private companies would be more willing to conserve or pay higher prices under a public operator. No respondent in public utility said the reverse. Negative attitudes toward private operators were most pronounced in the pair marked by a controversial recent privatization and a price hike. Nonetheless, we find that California’s history of recurrent droughts and the visible role of the state in water supply and drought management undermine the distinction between public and private. Private utilities themselves work to underplay the distinction by stressing the collective ownership of the water source and the collective value of conservation. Overall, California’s public utilities appear more proactive and target-oriented in asking their customers to conserve than their private counterparts and the state continues to be important in legitimating and guiding conservation behavior, whether the utility is in public hands or private.

[The aspects of pricing policy in Azerbaijan pharmaceutical sector].

Science.gov (United States)

Dzhalilova, K I; Alieva, K Ia

2012-01-01

The effect of macro-, middle- and microeconomic factors on price formation in Azerbaijan pharmaceutical market has been studied. Worldwide pharmaceutical leaders have the goals to become leader on the pharmaceutical market of Azerbaijan and maximize their market share. Non-leaders pharmaceutical companies use different strategies of price formation: prime cost plus markup, or price formation on the base of current prices. It was revealed that domestic pharmaceutical market has high demand elasticity. Future market development is related to stimulation of product development, and hard penetration to the market through realization of price formation strategy. Non-state pharmaceutical organizations to achieve the purpose of survive in conditions of high competition should take in to account the factor perceptions of assortment by customers.

Price Overreactions in the Cryptocurrency Market

OpenAIRE

Caporale, Guglielmo Maria; Plastun, Alex

2018-01-01

This paper examines price overreactions in the case of the following cryptocurrencies: BitCoin, LiteCoin, Ripple and Dash. A number of parametric (t-test, ANOVA, regression analysis with dummy variables) and non-parametric (Mann-Whitney U test) tests confirm the presence of price patterns after overreactions: the next-day price changes in both directions are bigger than after "normal" days. A trading robot approach is then used to establish whether these statistical anomalies can be exploited...

Fractional Black-Scholes option pricing, volatility calibration and implied Hurst exponents in South African context

OpenAIRE

Flint, Emlyn; Maré, Eben

2017-01-01

Background: Contingent claims on underlying assets are typically priced under a framework that assumes, inter alia, that the log returns of the underlying asset are normally distributed. However, many researchers have shown that this assumption is violated in practice. Such violations include the statistical properties of heavy tails, volatility clustering, leptokurtosis and long memory. This paper considers the pricing of contingent claims when the underlying is assumed to display long memor...

Conservative interacting particles system with anomalous rate of ergodicity

OpenAIRE

Brzeźniak, Zdzislaw; Flandoli, Franco; Neklyudov, Misha; Zegarliński, Boguslaw

2010-01-01

We analyze certain conservative interacting particle system and establish ergodicity of the system for a family of invariant measures. Furthermore, we show that convergence rate to equilibrium is exponential. This result is of interest because it presents counterexample to the standard assumption of physicists that conservative system implies polynomial rate of convergence.

Analysis of alternative strategies for energy conservation in new buildings

Science.gov (United States)

Fang, J. M.; Tawil, J.

1980-12-01

The policy instruments considered include: greater reliance on market forces; research and development; information, education and demonstration programs; tax incentives and sanctions; mortgage and finance programs; and regulations and standards. The analysis starts with an explanation of the barriers to energy conservation in the residential and commercial sectors. Individual policy instruments are described and evaluated with respect to energy conservation, economic efficiency, equity, political impacts, and implementation and other transitional impacts. Five possible strategies are identified: (1) increased reliance on the market place; (2) energy consumption tax and supply subsidies; (3) Building Energy Performance Standards (BEPS) with no sanctions and no incentives; (4) BEPS with sanctions and incentives (price control); and (5) BEPS with sanctions and incentives (no price controls). A comparative analysis is performed. Elements are proposed for inclusion in a comprehensive strategy for conservation in new buildings.

A non-Gaussian Ornstein-Uhlenbeck model for pricing wind power futures

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Benth, Fred Espen; Pircalabu, Anca

2018-01-01

generated assuming a recent level of installed capacity. Also, based on one year of observed prices for wind power futures with different delivery periods, we study the market price of risk. Generally, we find a negative risk premium whose magnitude decreases as the length of the delivery period increases....

Screening calculations for radioactive waste releases from non-nuclear facilities

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Xu, Shulan; Soederman, Ann-Louis

2009-02-01

A series of screening calculations have been performed to assess the potential radiological consequences of discharges of radioactive substances to the environment arising from waste from non-nuclear practices. Solid waste, as well as liquids that are not poured to the sewer, are incinerated and ashes from incineration and sludge from waste water treatment plants are disposed or reused at municipal disposal facilities. Airborne discharges refer to releases from an incineration facility and liquid discharges refer both to releases from hospitals and laboratories to the sewage system, as well as leakage from waste disposal facilities. The external exposure of workers is estimated both in the waste water treatment plant and at the disposal facility. The calculations follow the philosophy of the IAEA's safety guidance starting with a simple assessment based on very conservative assumptions which may be iteratively refined using progressively more complex models, with more realistic assumptions, as necessary. In the assessments of these types of disposal, with cautious assumptions, carried out in this report we conclude that the radiological impacts on representative individuals in the public are negligible in that they are small with respect to the target dose of 10 μSv/a. A Gaussian plume model was used to estimate the doses from airborne discharges from the incinerator and left a significant safety margin in the results considering the conservative assumptions in the calculations. For the sewage plant workers the realistic approach included a reduction in working hours and the shorter exposure time resulted in maximum doses around 10 μSv/a. The calculations for the waste disposal facility show that the doses are higher or in the range of the target dose. The excess for public exposure is mainly caused by H-3 and C-14. The assumption used in the calculation is that all of the radioactive substances sent to the incineration facility and waste water treatment plant

Screening calculations for radioactive waste releases from non-nuclear facilities

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Shulan Xu; Soederman, Ann-Louis

2009-02-15

A series of screening calculations have been performed to assess the potential radiological consequences of discharges of radioactive substances to the environment arising from waste from non-nuclear practices. Solid waste, as well as liquids that are not poured to the sewer, are incinerated and ashes from incineration and sludge from waste water treatment plants are disposed or reused at municipal disposal facilities. Airborne discharges refer to releases from an incineration facility and liquid discharges refer both to releases from hospitals and laboratories to the sewage system, as well as leakage from waste disposal facilities. The external exposure of workers is estimated both in the waste water treatment plant and at the disposal facility. The calculations follow the philosophy of the IAEA's safety guidance starting with a simple assessment based on very conservative assumptions which may be iteratively refined using progressively more complex models, with more realistic assumptions, as necessary. In the assessments of these types of disposal, with cautious assumptions, carried out in this report we conclude that the radiological impacts on representative individuals in the public are negligible in that they are small with respect to the target dose of 10 muSv/a. A Gaussian plume model was used to estimate the doses from airborne discharges from the incinerator and left a significant safety margin in the results considering the conservative assumptions in the calculations. For the sewage plant workers the realistic approach included a reduction in working hours and the shorter exposure time resulted in maximum doses around 10 muSv/a. The calculations for the waste disposal facility show that the doses are higher or in the range of the target dose. The excess for public exposure is mainly caused by H-3 and C-14. The assumption used in the calculation is that all of the radioactive substances sent to the incineration facility and waste water treatment

Examination of Conservatism in Ground-level Source Release Assumption when Performing Consequence Analysis

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kim, Sung-yeop; Lim, Ho-Gon [Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

2015-10-15

One of these assumptions frequently assumed is the assumption of ground-level source release. The user manual of a consequence analysis software HotSpot is mentioning like below: 'If you cannot estimate or calculate the effective release height, the actual physical release height (height of the stack) or zero for ground-level release should be used. This will usually yield a conservative estimate, (i.e., larger radiation doses for all downwind receptors, etc).' This recommendation could be agreed in aspect of conservatism but quantitative examination of the effect of this assumption to the result of consequence analysis is necessary. The source terms of Fukushima Dai-ichi NPP accident have been estimated by several studies using inverse modeling and one of the biggest sources of the difference between the results of these studies was different effective source release height assumed by each studies. It supports the importance of the quantitative examination of the influence by release height. Sensitivity analysis of the effective release height of radioactive sources was performed and the influence to the total effective dose was quantitatively examined in this study. Above 20% difference is maintained even at longer distances, when we compare the dose between the result assuming ground-level release and the results assuming other effective plume height. It means that we cannot ignore the influence of ground-level source assumption to the latent cancer fatality estimations. In addition, the assumption of ground-level release fundamentally prevents detailed analysis including diffusion of plume from effective plume height to the ground even though the influence of it is relatively lower in longer distance. When we additionally consider the influence of surface roughness, situations could be more serious. The ground level dose could be highly over-estimated in short downwind distance at the NPP sites which have low surface roughness such as Barakah site in

Shattering world assumptions: A prospective view of the impact of adverse events on world assumptions.

Science.gov (United States)

Schuler, Eric R; Boals, Adriel

2016-05-01

Shattered Assumptions theory (Janoff-Bulman, 1992) posits that experiencing a traumatic event has the potential to diminish the degree of optimism in the assumptions of the world (assumptive world), which could lead to the development of posttraumatic stress disorder. Prior research assessed the assumptive world with a measure that was recently reported to have poor psychometric properties (Kaler et al., 2008). The current study had 3 aims: (a) to assess the psychometric properties of a recently developed measure of the assumptive world, (b) to retrospectively examine how prior adverse events affected the optimism of the assumptive world, and (c) to measure the impact of an intervening adverse event. An 8-week prospective design with a college sample (N = 882 at Time 1 and N = 511 at Time 2) was used to assess the study objectives. We split adverse events into those that were objectively or subjectively traumatic in nature. The new measure exhibited adequate psychometric properties. The report of a prior objective or subjective trauma at Time 1 was related to a less optimistic assumptive world. Furthermore, participants who experienced an intervening objectively traumatic event evidenced a decrease in optimistic views of the world compared with those who did not experience an intervening adverse event. We found support for Shattered Assumptions theory retrospectively and prospectively using a reliable measure of the assumptive world. We discuss future assessments of the measure of the assumptive world and clinical implications to help rebuild the assumptive world with current therapies. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2016 APA, all rights reserved).

Prospect theory: An application to European option pricing

OpenAIRE

Martina Nardon; Paolo Pianca

2012-01-01

Empirical studies on quoted options highlight deviations from the theoretical model of Black and Scholes; this is due to different causes, such as assumptions regarding the price dynamics, markets frictions and investors' attitude toward risk. In this contribution, we focus on this latter issue and study how to value European options within the continuous cumulative prospect theory. According to prospect theory, individuals do not always take their decisions consistently with the maximization...

28 CFR 70.45 - Cost and price analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-07-01

... 28 Judicial Administration 2 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Cost and price analysis. 70.45 Section 70... NON-PROFIT ORGANIZATIONS Post-Award Requirements Procurement Standards § 70.45 Cost and price analysis. Some form of cost or price analysis must be made and documented in the procurement files in connection...

Chaos in oil prices? Evidence from futures markets

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Adrangi, B.; Chatrath, A.; Dhanda, K.K.; Raffiee, K.

2001-01-01

We test for the presence of low-dimensional chaotic structure in crude oil, heating oil, and unleaded gasoline futures prices from the early 1980s. Evidence on chaos will have important implications for regulators and short-term trading strategies. While we find strong evidence of non-linear dependencies, the evidence is not consistent with chaos. Our test results indicate that ARCH-type processes, with controls for seasonal variation in prices, generally explain the non-linearities in the data. We also demonstrate that employing seasonally adjusted price series contributes to obtaining robust results via the existing tests for chaotic structure. Maximum likelihood methodologies, that are robust to the non-linear dynamics, lend support for Samuelson's hypothesis on contract-maturity effects in futures price-changes. However, the tests for chaos are not found to be sensitive to the maturity effects in the futures contracts. The results are robust to controls for the oil shocks of 1986 and 1991

A Simple Operating Strategy of Small-Scale Battery Energy Storages for Energy Arbitrage under Dynamic Pricing Tariffs

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Enrico Telaretti

2015-12-01

Full Text Available Price arbitrage involves taking advantage of an electricity price difference, storing electricity during low-prices times, and selling it back to the grid during high-prices periods. This strategy can be exploited by customers in presence of dynamic pricing schemes, such as hourly electricity prices, where the customer electricity cost may vary at any hour of day, and power consumption can be managed in a more flexible and economical manner, taking advantage of the price differential. Instead of modifying their energy consumption, customers can install storage systems to reduce their electricity bill, shifting the energy consumption from on-peak to off-peak hours. This paper develops a detailed storage model linking together technical, economic and electricity market parameters. The proposed operating strategy aims to maximize the profit of the storage owner (electricity customer under simplifying assumptions, by determining the optimal charge/discharge schedule. The model can be applied to several kinds of storages, although the simulations refer to three kinds of batteries: lead-acid, lithium-ion (Li-ion and sodium-sulfur (NaS batteries. Unlike literature reviews, often requiring an estimate of the end-user load profile, the proposed operation strategy is able to properly identify the battery-charging schedule, relying only on the hourly price profile, regardless of the specific facility’s consumption, thanks to some simplifying assumptions in the sizing and the operation of the battery. This could be particularly useful when the customer load profile cannot be scheduled with sufficient reliability, because of the uncertainty inherent in load forecasting. The motivation behind this research is that storage devices can help to lower the average electricity prices, increasing flexibility and fostering the integration of renewable sources into the power system.

Adult Learning Assumptions

Science.gov (United States)

Baskas, Richard S.

2011-01-01

The purpose of this study is to examine Knowles' theory of andragogy and his six assumptions of how adults learn while providing evidence to support two of his assumptions based on the theory of andragogy. As no single theory explains how adults learn, it can best be assumed that adults learn through the accumulation of formal and informal…

Non-conserved magnetization operator and 'fire-and-ice' ground states in the Ising-Heisenberg diamond chain

Science.gov (United States)

Torrico, Jordana; Ohanyan, Vadim; Rojas, Onofre

2018-05-01

We consider the diamond chain with S = 1/2 XYZ vertical dimers which interact with the intermediate sites via the interaction of the Ising type. We also suppose all four spins form the diamond-shaped plaquette to have different g-factors. The non-uniform g-factors within the quantum spin dimer as well as the XY-anisotropy of the exchange interaction lead to the non-conserving magnetization for the chain. We analyze the effects of non-conserving magnetization as well as the effects of the appearance of negative g-factors among the spins from the unit cell. A number of unusual frustrated states for ferromagnetic couplings and g-factors with non-uniform signs are found out. These frustrated states generalize the "half-fire-half-ice" state introduced in reference Yin et al. (2015). The corresponding zero-temperature ground state phase diagrams are presented.

Relationship between the Uncompensated Price Elasticity and the Income Elasticity of Demand under Conditions of Additive Preferences.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Lorenzo Sabatelli

Full Text Available Income and price elasticity of demand quantify the responsiveness of markets to changes in income and in prices, respectively. Under the assumptions of utility maximization and preference independence (additive preferences, mathematical relationships between income elasticity values and the uncompensated own and cross price elasticity of demand are here derived using the differential approach to demand analysis. Key parameters are: the elasticity of the marginal utility of income, and the average budget share. The proposed method can be used to forecast the direct and indirect impact of price changes and of financial instruments of policy using available estimates of the income elasticity of demand.

Oil markets and prices: the Brent market and the formation of world oil prices

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Horsnell, Paul; Mabro, Robert.

1993-01-01

The purpose of this book is to enhance our understanding of the complex working of the world petroleum market and of the formation of oil prices in international trade. It devotes particular attention to the Brent market which involves spot, physical forward and futures trading of a blend of North Sea crudes known as Brent which has become one of the most important markers for world oil prices. Because the Brent market is central the research presented here examines its relationship to the constellation of other oil markets: those which deal on a spot basis with the main export crude of Africa, the Gulf, the Far East and the North Sea, the market for Dubai, another marker crude, and that for West Texas Intermediate (WTI). Finally an analysis of pricing mechanisms used by OPEC and many non-OPEC exporting countries for their oil sales under term contracts and which use Brent prices as one of their references complete this study on oil markets and prices. (author)

Bidding price analysis for competitive generators and large consumers

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ping Wei; Luonan Chen; Hsiao Dong Chiang

2005-01-01

We present a new method to analyze the bidding price of each participant (power suppliers and large consumers) in a pay-as-bid market. The bidding price will be decomposed into a variety of components corresponding to five factors, such as the incremental values of the subject bidder's generation on the system operational costs, on the income or payment of other bidders, and on the binding tradable constraints, and the first-order approximation of the subjective participant's bidding price. From an economic viewpoint, each component provides useful information for participants to design the strategic planning. The advantages of the method include that the decomposition is well defined without assumptions and that each decomposition term has its own economical and/or engineering meaning. The proposed method is numerically verified through computer simulations on a three-bus example system and a modified IEEE 30-bus power system with both generator and large consumer bidding. (author)

The effects of behavioral and structural assumptions in artificial stock market

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, Xinghua; Gregor, Shirley; Yang, Jianmei

2008-04-01

Recent literature has developed the conjecture that important statistical features of stock price series, such as the fat tails phenomenon, may depend mainly on the market microstructure. This conjecture motivated us to investigate the roles of both the market microstructure and agent behavior with respect to high-frequency returns and daily returns. We developed two simple models to investigate this issue. The first one is a stochastic model with a clearing house microstructure and a population of zero-intelligence agents. The second one has more behavioral assumptions based on Minority Game and also has a clearing house microstructure. With the first model we found that a characteristic of the clearing house microstructure, namely the clearing frequency, can explain fat tail, excess volatility and autocorrelation phenomena of high-frequency returns. However, this feature does not cause the same phenomena in daily returns. So the Stylized Facts of daily returns depend mainly on the agents’ behavior. With the second model we investigated the effects of behavioral assumptions on daily returns. Our study implicates that the aspects which are responsible for generating the stylized facts of high-frequency returns and daily returns are different.

The Modern History of Energy Conservation: An Overview for Information Professionals

OpenAIRE

Wulfinghoff, Donald R.

2000-01-01

The current electricity crisis in California, along with high petroleum and natural gas prices everywhere, reminds us that energy conservation is a key to our survival as a civilization. This critical guide by the author of the Energy Efficiency Manual presents credible information sources on energy conservation.

Effect of the 1973 oil price embargo

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Goel, R.K.; Morey, M.J.

1993-01-01

This paper focuses on the effect of the oil shock of 1973 on US gasoline demand by examining the price elasticities of demand before and after the 1973 embargo. Price elasticities provide useful input to the development of public policy dealing with taxation and pollution control. The extensive data used include state level observations for nearly three decades spanning 1952-80. We apply non-parametric regression methods that are more appropriate to our investigation than traditional parametric techniques. Unlike standard regression techniques, non-parametric methods neither assume a functional form for the demand relation nor restrict the distribution of the dependent variable. Our results show that the mean price elasticity of gasoline demand for the USA was - 0.243 for 1952-73 and the corresponding number for 1973-80 was - 0.576, statistically different at the 5% level of significance. The relatively higher price elasticity in the post-embargo period is consistent with the hypothesis that consumers sought substitutes and restricted their consumption in response to prices as well as social responsibility. The policy implications of these results are also discussed. (author)

Accelerated electricity conservation in Juneau, Alaska: A study of household activities that reduced demand 25%

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Leighty, Wayne; Meier, Alan

2011-01-01

An avalanche destroyed the main hydroelectric transmission line to Juneau, Alaska in April, 2008. Diesel-generated electricity was substituted, causing electricity prices to increase 500% for 45 days. Electricity demand fell by 25% during the supply disruption. Most of the reduction occurred before the higher rates were implemented. Some conservation - about 8% of historic consumption - persisted after the transmission line was repaired and prices returned to normal. Consumers reduced energy use through a combination of new habits and technical improvements. A survey of residential consumers indicated that the average household undertook 10 conservation actions, with major changes in lighting, space heating, fuel switching, and water and appliance use. We propose a method for prioritizing conservation actions for promotion according to their impact in electricity savings (as a function of popularity, effectiveness, and persistence) and a dynamic framework for electricity use before, during, and after a supply disruption (i.e., both the magnitude and rates of change in electricity conservation). - Research highlights: → An electricity supply disruption caused prices to increase 500% for 45 days. → Electricity conservation of 25% occurred in a matter of days. → Electricity conservation of 8% persisted after the supply disruption was repaired. → Conservation occurred through behavior change and technology adoption. → The disruption induced consumers to try new behaviors that became new habits.

Carbon pricing. Mobilizing non-state actors on a global issue with local implications

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Afriat, Marion; Vaidyula; Manasvini; Alberola, Emilie

2016-09-01

An effective carbon price should send economic and political signals that shift public and private investment to increase the competitiveness of low-carbon solutions (fuels switching, deployment of renewable energy, etc.) and stay below the 2 deg. C trajectory. In 2016, over 40 countries and 20 provinces and cities have established an explicit price on carbon through carbon taxes or emissions trading systems. The choice of the carbon pricing instrument depends largely on the national or local circumstances and priorities. Carbon pricing should not be a stand-alone policy and should be part of a coherent energy and climate policy framework in order to achieve an effective low-carbon transition in all economic sectors. In 2015, $26 billion in government revenue was generated in the world through carbon pricing initiatives. These revenues can be leveraged to yield economic and environmental benefits at the national and local level. The Paris Agreement provides the necessary framework to facilitate the uptake of carbon pricing

Market-driven energy pricing necessary to ensure China's power supply

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wang, Qiang; Qiu, Huan-Ning; Kuang, Yaoqiu

2009-01-01

China's rapid economic growth has strained its power supply, as manifested for instance by the widespread 2008 power shortage. The cause for this shortage is thought to be the current Chinese energy pricing system, which is mainly government rather than market controlled. Government-regulated price-caps for coal have seriously affected coal supply. At the same time price-caps for electricity supply have caused suspension of power plant operation. As a result, the average operating time of coal-fired power plants declined 50 h annually across the nation in the first half of 2008 compared to the previous year, despite clear power shortages. Here, it will be suggested that energy pricing, set by supply and demand may effectively discourage excessive growth in heavy industry, substantially encourage energy conservation and efficiency, and curb the rapid electricity demand in China. It will be argued that a market-oriented electricity pricing mechanism is required for China to secure its future power supply. (author)

Family number non-conservation induced by the super-symmetric mixing of scalar leptons

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Levine, M.J.S.

1987-01-01

We examine a model of supersymmetry with soft breaking terms in the electroweak sector. Explicit mixing among the scalar leptons results in a number of effects, principally non-conservation of lepton family number. Comparison with experiment permits us to place constraints upon the model

Optimal pricing and lot-sizing decisions under Weibull distribution deterioration and trade credit policy

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Manna S.K.

2008-01-01

Full Text Available In this paper, we consider the problem of simultaneous determination of retail price and lot-size (RPLS under the assumption that the supplier offers a fixed credit period to the retailer. It is assumed that the item in stock deteriorates over time at a rate that follows a two-parameter Weibull distribution and that the price-dependent demand is represented by a constant-price-elasticity function of retail price. The RPLS decision model is developed and solved analytically. Results are illustrated with the help of a base example. Computational results show that the supplier earns more profits when the credit period is greater than the replenishment cycle length. Sensitivity analysis of the solution to changes in the value of input parameters of the base example is also discussed.

Pricing policies for a two-part exhaustible resource cartel: the case of OPEC (world oil project). Working paper

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hnyilicza, E.; Pindyck, R.S.

1976-04-01

This paper examines pricing policies for OPEC under the assumption that the cartel is composed of a block of spender countries with large cash needs and a block of saver countries with little immediate need for cash and a lower rate of discount. The decision problem for the two-part cartel is embodied in a game-theoretic framework and the optimal bargaining solution is computed using results from the theory of cooperative games developed by Nash. The set of feasible bargaining points--and the corresponding Nash solution--is computed under two assumptions on the behavior of output shares: that they are subject to choice and that they are fixed at historical values. The results suggest that for fixed output shares, there is little room for bargaining and the price path approximates the optimal monopoly price path. If the shares are subject to control, optimal paths depend significantly on the relative bargaining power of each block.

Real-time electricity pricing mechanism in China based on system dynamics

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

He, Yongxiu; Zhang, Jixiang

2015-01-01

Highlights: • The system dynamics is used to research the real-time electricity pricing mechanism. • Four kinds of the real-time electricity pricing models are carried out and simulated. • It analysed the electricity price, the user satisfaction and the social benefits under the different models. • Market pricing is the trend of the real-time electricity pricing mechanism. • Initial development path of the real-time price mechanism for China is designed between 2015 and 2030. - Abstract: As an important means of demand-side response, the reasonable formulation of the electricity price mechanism will have an important impact on the balance between the supply and demand of electric power. With the introduction of Chinese intelligence apparatus and the rapid development of smart grids, real-time electricity pricing, as the frontier electricity pricing mechanism in the smart grid, will have great significance on the promotion of energy conservation and the improvement of the total social surplus. From the perspective of system dynamics, this paper studies different real-time electricity pricing mechanisms based on load structure, cost structure and bidding and analyses the situation of user satisfaction and the total social surplus under different pricing mechanisms. Finally, through the comparative analysis of examples under different real-time pricing scenarios, this paper aims to explore and design the future dynamic real-time electricity pricing mechanism in China, predicts the dynamic real-time pricing level and provides a reference for real-time electricity price promotion in the future

Economic efficiency of coal gasification in Poland in reference to the price of CO2 emission rights

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Kopacz Michał

2016-01-01

Full Text Available The article presents the impact of prices of carbon dioxide on the economic efficiency of 14 coal gasification technologies employed for producing electricity, hydrogen and methanol measured with the use of NPV method. All technical, technological and economic assumptions in the assessment have been made for Polish conditions. The impact of CO2 prices were examined in the range of 30-200 PLN/Mg. The production capacity of the base technology corresponds with the fuel consumption of indicative coal having the calorific value of 20.5 GJ/Mg, used in the amount of 100 Mg/h. On the basis of the conducted research, with respect to all technical and economic assumptions, it can be stated that for the base scale there is a clear impact of prices of CO2 emission allowances above the 90 PLN/Mg CO2. Such a level of carbon dioxide prices makes the decision concerning construction of geological sequestration systems (CCS, carbon capture and storage worthwhile. This applies in particular to the production of electric energy. For the variants focused on hydrogen production there is a dominance of variants with CCS system only at the price exceeding 120 PLN/Mg CO2, and in the case of methanol such a situation occurs above 150 PLN/Mg CO2.

Analysis of transmission elasticity of international prices for sugar prices in Brazil: an application of the Structural Model

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mario Antonio Margarido

2018-01-01

Full Text Available This study aims to determine and analyze the spatial elasticity (or horizontal of price transmission between international sugar prices and the average price received by the Brazilian exporter of sugar, using the Structural Model. The data used are from January/2004 to November/2015. As a result, variations of 1% in the international sugar price are transmitted to the average price received by Brazilian sugar exporters with a magnitude of 0.3% on average, setting inelastic relationship between the two variables and, consequently, the non-occurrence of the law of one price. So, there are mechanisms in this market that are hindering the full functioning of the arbitration. This situation is not unusual, because the sugar is one of the most commercially protected product and suffer much interference.

A Vector Autoregressive Model for Electricity Prices Subject to Long Memory and Regime Switching

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Haldrup, Niels; Nielsen, Frank; Nielsen, Morten Ørregaard

2007-01-01

A regime dependent VAR model is suggested that allows long memory (fractional integration) in each of the regime states as well as the possibility of fractional cointegra- tion. The model is relevant in describing the price dynamics of electricity prices where the transmission of power is subject...... to occasional congestion periods. For a system of bilat- eral prices non-congestion means that electricity prices are identical whereas congestion makes prices depart. Hence, the joint price dynamics implies switching between essen- tially a univariate price process under non-congestion and a bivariate price...

SECOND ROUND EFFECTS AND PASS-THROUGH OF FOOD PRICES TO INFLATION IN KENYA

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Roseline Nyakerario Misati

2015-07-01

Full Text Available In the recent past, the Kenyan economy experienced persistent inflationary pressures, partly attributed to food price spikes. However, the quantitative role of food prices in inflation is not well understood or formally empirically analyzed in Kenya yet food occupies a weight of 36 percent in the consumer price index and contributes a monthly average of over 40 percent to overall inflation. Based on monthly data covering the period 1997-2012, this paper attempts to fill this gap by examining the relationship between food prices and inflation. The study used gap models and Phillips curve approaches to estimate the passthrough effects of food prices to both overall inflation and non-food non-fuel inflation. Based on gap models, the results confirm presence of second round effects from food prices to inflation while estimations of the Phillips curve suggest a domestic food price pass-through of 0.49 to overall inflation and 0.38 to non-food non-fuel inflation. The world food prices pass-through to overall inflation and non-food non-fuel inflation are estimated at 0.09 and 0.08, respectively. Thus this paper recommends usage of headline inflation to estimate trend inflation, enhanced communication to mitigate second round effects and that while monetary policy is very critical in anchoring inflationary expectations, there is mutual gain from a supportive fiscal policy in addressing supply side shocks.

Model documentation: Electricity market module, electricity finance and pricing submodule

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

1994-04-07

The purpose of this report is to define the objectives of the model, describe its basic approach, and provide detail on how it works. The EFP is a regulatory accounting model that projects electricity prices. The model first solves for revenue requirements by building up a rate base, calculating a return on rate base, and adding the allowed expenses. Average revenues (prices) are calculated based on assumptions regarding regulator lag and customer cost allocation methods. The model then solves for the internal cash flow and analyzes the need for external financing to meet necessary capital expenditures. Finally, the EFP builds up the financial statements. The EFP is used in conjunction with the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS). Inputs to the EFP include the forecast generating capacity expansion plans, operating costs, regulator environment, and financial data. The outputs include forecasts of income statements, balance sheets, revenue requirements, and electricity prices.

How firms set prices for medical materials: a multi-country study.

Science.gov (United States)

Ide, Hiroo; Mollahaliloglu, Salih

2009-09-01

This study presents a comparison of medical material prices, discusses why differences exist, and examines methods for comparing prices. Market prices for drug-eluting stents (DES), non-drug-eluting stents (non-DES), and percutaneous transluminal coronary angioplasty (PTCA) catheters were collected from five countries: the United States, Japan, Korea, Turkey, and Thailand. To compare prices, three adjustment methods were used: currency exchange rates, purchasing power parity (PPP), and gross domestic product (GDP) per capita. The ratios of medical material prices compared with those in the United States were higher in Japan (from 1.4 for DES to 5.0 for PTCA catheters) and Korea (from 1.2 for DES to 4.0 for PTCA catheters), and lower in Turkey (from 0.8 for non-DES to 1.4 for DES) and Thailand (from 0.5 for non-DES to 1.3 for PTCA catheters). The PPP-adjusted ratios changed slightly for Japan, Korea, and Turkey. When the prices were adjusted by GDP per capita, the ratios were much higher. Comparing prices using currency exchange rates or PPP is applicable only between countries with stable economic relations; adjustment by GDP per capita reflects the actual burden. Further study is needed to fully elucidate the factors influencing the global medical material market.

Constructing Conservation Impact: Understanding Monitoring and Evaluation in Conservation NGOs

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Catherine Benson Wahlén

2014-01-01

Full Text Available A growing number of scholars critically examine large conservation organisations to explore organisational intentions, practices, and outcomes. In parallel, other scholars have problematised audit cultures, suggesting that these seemingly good practices of evaluation and measurement are not neutral and instead have consequences for governance and power. This article combines literature on conservation NGOs, organisational theory, and audit culture to study the inner workings of conservation and to understand the construction of effectiveness and impact. I draw on semi-structured interviews to examine how a large, international conservation organisation, which I term the World Conservation Organisation (WCO; a pseudonym, coordinates monitoring and evaluation (M&E processes among its international, national, and local offices. I find individual staff within WCO make varying assumptions about the M&E policies and place different values on M&E, which results in different institutional logics towards M&E and a broader organisational failure to measure progress and reflect upon outcomes. The findings also show difficulties in translating broad organisational goals into specific project activities, underscoring tensions in implementation and limitations in M&E practice. I also find that organisational and managerial pressure to report success is greater than donor pressure, a finding that expands understandings of NGO-donor dynamics.

U.S. Virgin Islands Petroleum Price-Spike Preparation

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Johnson, C.

2012-06-01

This NREL technical report details a plan for the U.S. Virgin Islands (USVI) to minimize the economic damage caused by major petroleum price increases. The assumptions for this plan are that the USVI will have very little time and money to implement it and that the population will be highly motivated to follow it because of high fuel prices. The plan's success, therefore, is highly dependent on behavior change. This plan was derived largely from a review of the actions taken and behavior changes made by companies and commuters throughout the United States in response to the oil price spike of 2008. Many of these solutions were coordinated by or reported through the 88 local representatives of the U.S. Department of Energy's Clean Cities program. The National Renewable Energy Laboratory provides technical and communications support for the Clean Cities program and therefore serves as a de facto repository of these solutions. This plan is the first publication that has tapped this repository.

The Impact of Supply Chain Cost on the Price of the Final Product

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Indrė Lapinskaitė

2014-06-01

Full Text Available Nowadays, as consumption and production are growing enormously fast, companies are seeking for costs reduction aimed at ensuring competitiveness. In manufacturing companies, supply chain expenses play a colossal role in the cost of the final product. This paper focuses on the main processes in the logistics chain and their components. The authors analyse the relationship between the sup- ply chain expenses and the price of the final product, the classification of logistics chain costs and their minimization as an assumption for the competitiveness of the final price.

Fuel Prices as a Factor of Shaping Profitability of Road Transport in Poland

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Marzantowicz Łukasz

2016-12-01

Full Text Available The goal of this article is to determine the relation between the price of fuel and the profitability of the company. For this purpose, the article defines the profitability of transport enterprises and points the source of the impact of changes in fuel prices on the profitability of companies in the road transport sector. The case of the ABC transport company shows the relationship between the costs incurred for the purchase of fuel and the cost of transport activities. To test the theoretical assumptions, case study method was used.

Geothermal energy of Slovakia - CO2 emissions reduction contribution potential (background study for conservative and non-conservative approach

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Branislav Fričovský

2012-12-01

Full Text Available Total geothermal energy potential is estimated for 209 714 TJ per year or 6 650 MWth. Natural conditions define a use of thermalwaters for heat generation only. Accepting proportion of real achievable output of geothermal projects in the non-conservative scenarioat a rate of 1 861 MWth or 13 440 TJ per year, yearly carbon dioxide savings are up to reach 0,357 MtCO2.yr-1 or 12,5 of cumulativeMtCO2 in 35 years. By a contrast, introduction of conservative approach points to increase in a geothermal heat production from 145 to243 TJ per period or 6 944 TJ of cumulative 35 years production, with a real outcome of 0,45 MtCO2 cumulative carbon dioxidesavings, corresponding to yearly real savings from 9,4 .10-3 to 15,8 .10-3 MtCO2.

Exhaustible natural resources, normal prices and intertemporal equilibrium

OpenAIRE

Parrinello, Sergio

2003-01-01

This paper proposes an extension of the classical theory of normal prices to an n-commodity economy with exhaustible natural resources. The central idea is developed by two analytical steps. Firstly, it is assumed that a given flow of an exhaustible resource in short supply is combined with the coexistence of two methods of production using that resource. Sraffa’s equations are reinterpreted by adopting the concept of effectual supply of natural resources and avoiding the assumption of perfec...

Gas prices: realities and probabilities

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Broadfoot, M.

2000-01-01

An assessment of price trends suggests continuing rise in 2001, with some easing of upward price movement in 2002 and 2003. Storage levels as of Nov. 1, 2000 are expected to be at 2.77 Tcf, but if the winter of 2000/2001 proves to be more severe than usual, inventory levels could sink as low as 500 Bcf by April 1, 2001. With increasing demand for natural gas for non-utility electric power generation the major challenge will be to achieve significant supply growth, which means increased developmental drilling and inventory draw-downs, as well as more exploratory drilling in deepwater and frontier regions. Absence of a significant supply response by next summer will affect both growth in demand and in price levels, and the increased demand for electric generation in the summer will create a flatter consumption profile, erasing the traditional summer/winter spread in consumption, further intensifying price volatility. Managing price fluctuations is the second biggest challenge (after potential supply problems) facing the industry

Economic forces push down selling prices of U.S. refineries

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Anon.

1996-01-01

Recent data on US refinery sales reveal that selling prices have continued to decline in the 1990s. Reasons for this decrease include increased plant investments to meet regulatory requirements, excess refining capacity, increased imports of refined products, and reduced margins. While these expenditures enable a refinery to continue operating, they do not make the refinery more profitable or valuable. Other factors contributing to reduced selling prices of US refineries are: declining local crude production; unstable crude costs; increased energy conservation; growing competition from alternative fuels

The long-run forecasting of energy prices using the model of shifting trend

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Radchenko, Stanislav

2005-01-01

Developing models for accurate long-term energy price forecasting is an important problem because these forecasts should be useful in determining both supply and demand of energy. On the supply side, long-term forecasts determine investment decisions of energy-related companies. On the demand side, investments in physical capital and durable goods depend on price forecasts of a particular energy type. Forecasting long-run rend movements in energy prices is very important on the macroeconomic level for several developing countries because energy prices have large impacts on their real output, the balance of payments, fiscal policy, etc. Pindyck (1999) argues that the dynamics of real energy prices is mean-reverting to trend lines with slopes and levels that are shifting unpredictably over time. The hypothesis of shifting long-term trend lines was statistically tested by Benard et al. (2004). The authors find statistically significant instabilities for coal and natural gas prices. I continue the research of energy prices in the framework of continuously shifting levels and slopes of trend lines started by Pindyck (1999). The examined model offers both parsimonious approach and perspective on the developments in energy markets. Using the model of depletable resource production, Pindyck (1999) argued that the forecast of energy prices in the model is based on the long-run total marginal cost. Because the model of a shifting trend is based on the competitive behavior, one may examine deviations of oil producers from the competitive behavior by studying the difference between actual prices and long-term forecasts. To construct the long-run forecasts (10-year-ahead and 15-year-ahead) of energy prices, I modify the univariate shifting trends model of Pindyck (1999). I relax some assumptions on model parameters, the assumption of white noise error term, and propose a new Bayesian approach utilizing a Gibbs sampling algorithm to estimate the model with autocorrelation. To

Impacts of High Variable Renewable Energy Futures on Wholesale Electricity Prices, and on Electric-Sector Decision Making

OpenAIRE

Seel, J; Mills, AD; Wiser, RH

2018-01-01

Increasing penetrations of variable renewable energy (VRE) can affect wholesale electricity price patterns and make them meaningfully different from past, traditional price patterns. Many long-lasting decisions for supply- and demand-side electricity infrastructure and programs are based on historical observations or assume a business-as-usual future with low shares of VRE. Our motivating question is whether certain electric-sector decisions that are made based on assumptions reflecting low V...

Conservative Sample Size Determination for Repeated Measures Analysis of Covariance.

Science.gov (United States)

Morgan, Timothy M; Case, L Douglas

2013-07-05

In the design of a randomized clinical trial with one pre and multiple post randomized assessments of the outcome variable, one needs to account for the repeated measures in determining the appropriate sample size. Unfortunately, one seldom has a good estimate of the variance of the outcome measure, let alone the correlations among the measurements over time. We show how sample sizes can be calculated by making conservative assumptions regarding the correlations for a variety of covariance structures. The most conservative choice for the correlation depends on the covariance structure and the number of repeated measures. In the absence of good estimates of the correlations, the sample size is often based on a two-sample t-test, making the 'ultra' conservative and unrealistic assumption that there are zero correlations between the baseline and follow-up measures while at the same time assuming there are perfect correlations between the follow-up measures. Compared to the case of taking a single measurement, substantial savings in sample size can be realized by accounting for the repeated measures, even with very conservative assumptions regarding the parameters of the assumed correlation matrix. Assuming compound symmetry, the sample size from the two-sample t-test calculation can be reduced at least 44%, 56%, and 61% for repeated measures analysis of covariance by taking 2, 3, and 4 follow-up measures, respectively. The results offer a rational basis for determining a fairly conservative, yet efficient, sample size for clinical trials with repeated measures and a baseline value.

Do unreal assumptions pervert behaviour?

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Petersen, Verner C.

of the basic assumptions underlying the theories found in economics. Assumptions relating to the primacy of self-interest, to resourceful, evaluative, maximising models of man, to incentive systems and to agency theory. The major part of the paper then discusses how these assumptions and theories may pervert......-interested way nothing will. The purpose of this paper is to take a critical look at some of the assumptions and theories found in economics and discuss their implications for the models and the practices found in the management of business. The expectation is that the unrealistic assumptions of economics have...... become taken for granted and tacitly included into theories and models of management. Guiding business and manage¬ment to behave in a fashion that apparently makes these assumptions become "true". Thus in fact making theories and models become self-fulfilling prophecies. The paper elucidates some...

Non-Price Competition and the Structure of the Online Information Industry: Q-Analysis of Medical Databases and Hosts.

Science.gov (United States)

Davies, Roy

1987-01-01

Discussion of the online information industry emphasizes the effects of non-price competition on its structure and the firms involved. Q-analysis is applied to data on medical databases and hosts, changes over a three-year period are identified, and an optimum structure for the industry based on economic theory is considered. (Author/LRW)

An evaluation of the impact of state Renewable Portfolio Standards (RPS) on retail, commercial, and industrial electricity prices

Science.gov (United States)

Puram, Rakesh

The Renewable Portfolio Standard (RPS) has become a popular mechanism for states to promote renewable energy and its popularity has spurred a potential bill within Congress for a nationwide Federal RPS. While RPS benefits have been touted by several groups, it also has detractors. Among the concerns is that RPS standards could raise electricity rates, given that renewable energy is costlier than traditional fossil fuels. The evidence on the impact of RPS on electricity prices is murky at best: Complex models by NREL and USEIA utilize computer programs with several assumptions which make empirical studies difficult and only predict slight increases in electricity rates associated with RPS standards. Recent theoretical models and empirical studies have found price increases, but often fail to comprehensively include several sets of variables, which in fact could confound results. Utilizing a combination of past papers and studies to triangulate variables this study aims to develop both a rigorous fixed effects regression model as well as a theoretical framework to explain the results. This study analyzes state level panel data from 2002 to 2008 to analyze the effect of RPS on residential, commercial, and industrial electricity prices, controlling for several factors including amount of electricity generation from renewable and non-renewable sources, customer incentives for renewable energy, macroeconomic and demographic indicators, and fuel price mix. The study contrasts several regressions to illustrate important relationships and how inclusions as well as exclusion of various variables have an effect on electricity rates. Regression results indicate that the presence of RPS within a state increases the commercial and residential electricity rates, but have no discernable effect on the industrial electricity rate. Although RPS tends to increase electricity prices, the effect has a small impact on higher electricity prices. The models also indicate that jointly all

An Application on Merton Model in the Non-efficient Market

Science.gov (United States)

Feng, Yanan; Xiao, Qingxian

Merton Model is one of the famous credit risk models. This model presumes that the only source of uncertainty in equity prices is the firm’s net asset value .But the above market condition holds only when the market is efficient which is often been ignored in modern research. Another, the original Merton Model is based on assumptions that in the event of default absolute priority holds, renegotiation is not permitted , liquidation of the firm is costless and in the Merton Model and most of its modified version the default boundary is assumed to be constant which don’t correspond with the reality. So these can influence the level of predictive power of the model. In this paper, we have made some extensions on some of these assumptions underlying the original model. The model is virtually a modification of Merton’s model. In a non-efficient market, we use the stock data to analysis this model. The result shows that the modified model can evaluate the credit risk well in the non-efficient market.

Canadian natural gas market dynamics and pricing : an update

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2002-10-01

This energy market assessment (EMA) report discusses natural gas price formation and describes the current functioning of regional gas markets in Canada. This EMA also describes the factors affecting the price of natural gas in Canada and examines natural gas markets on a region-by region basis. It is shown that as part of an integrated North American market, prices of natural gas in Canada reflect supply and demand factors in both Canada and the United States. During the low oil price period of 1997/1998, high demand for natural gas outpaced the supply because of low drilling and production activity by producers. In response to the increased demand and lower levels of supply, the price of natural gas increased significantly in 1999 and 2000. This was followed by a period of market adjustment. The importance of electronic trading systems for enhancing price discovery was also discussed with reference to how spot and futures markets allow market participants to manage price volatility. It was determined that Canadians have had access to natural gas on terms and conditions equal to export customers, and at equal pricing. In early November 2000, natural gas prices in North American began to rise due to low levels of natural gas in storage. The price shocks were felt unevenly across the North American market. In response to the high prices, consumers conserved energy use, and many industrial users switched to cheaper fuels. By the spring 2001, demand continued to decrease at a time when production was high. These factors contributed to the downward pressure on gas prices. This EMA discusses the structure of market transactions and market adjustment mechanisms. It is presented in the context of the approaching 2002/2003 winter season where the tightening between natural gas supply and demand is expected to result in price volatility. 28 figs

Electricity conservation policies and sectorial output in Pakistan: An empirical analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mehmood Mirza, Faisal; Bergland, Olvar; Afzal, Naila

2014-01-01

Government of Pakistan has taken several measures in recent years for conserving electricity to reduce its electricity shortfall. In this context, this study attempts to quantify the impact of different electricity conservation policies on value-added of industrial and services sectors in Pakistan. Results indicate that unanticipated shocks to electricity consumption and technical efficiency form a positive relationship while electricity price has a negative relationship with value-added in industrial and services sectors in the long run. Direct electricity conservation policies and policies that aim at increasing electricity prices will have an adverse impact on value-added of both the sectors. Policies that induce improvements in energy efficiency will have a positive impact on the sectorial output in the long run. Therefore, the government should not pursue direct consumption curtailment polices to mitigate the electricity crisis rather steps should be taken to enhance energy efficiency in the economy. This can be done by setting targets for reducing energy intensity in both the sectors. Moreover, energy efficiency should be incorporated in the mainstream of energy policy and specific laws should be enacted to establish institutions and develop methods to help in effective conservation and efficient consumption of limited energy resources. - Highlights: • We quantify impact of electricity conservation policies on sectorial value added. • Shocks to electricity consumption and technical efficiency positively affect the output. • Shocks to electricity price negatively affects value-added in the long run. • Policies inducing improvements in energy efficiency positively affect the output

Obtaining fruit and vegetables for the lowest prices: pricing survey of different outlets and geographical analysis of competition effects.

Science.gov (United States)

Pearson, Amber L; Winter, Pieta R; McBreen, Ben; Stewart, Georgia; Roets, Rianda; Nutsford, Daniel; Bowie, Christopher; Donnellan, Niamh; Wilson, Nick

2014-01-01

Inadequate fruit and vegetable (F&V) consumption is an important dietary risk factor for disease internationally. High F&V prices can be a barrier to dietary intake and so to improve understanding of this topic we surveyed prices and potential competition between F&V outlet types. Over a three week early autumn period in 2013, prices were collected bi-weekly for 18 commonly purchased F&Vs from farmers' markets (FM) selling local produce (n = 3), other F&V markets (OFVM) (n = 5), supermarkets that neighbored markets (n = 8), and more distant supermarkets (n = 8), (in urban Wellington and Christchurch areas of New Zealand). Prices from an online supermarket were also collected. A total of 3120 prices were collected. Most F&Vs (13/18) were significantly cheaper at OFVMs than supermarkets. Over half of the F&Vs (10/18) were significantly cheaper at nearby compared to distant supermarkets, providing evidence of a moderate 'halo effect' in price reductions in supermarkets that neighbored markets. Weekend (vs midweek) prices were also significantly cheaper at nearby (vs distant) supermarkets, supporting evidence for a 'halo effect'. Ideal weekly 'food basket' prices for a two adult, two child family were: OFVMs (NZ$76), online supermarket ($113), nearby supermarkets ($124), distant supermarkets ($127), and FMs ($138). This represents a savings of $49 per week (US$26) by using OFVMs relative to (non-online) supermarkets. Similarly, a shift from non-online supermarkets to the online supermarket would generate a $13 saving. In these locations general markets appear to be providing some substantially lower prices for fruit and vegetables than supermarkets. They also appear to be depressing prices in neighboring supermarkets. These results, when supplemented by other needed research, may help inform the case for interventions to improve access to fruit and vegetables, particularly for low-income populations.

Obtaining fruit and vegetables for the lowest prices: pricing survey of different outlets and geographical analysis of competition effects.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Amber L Pearson

Full Text Available AIMS: Inadequate fruit and vegetable (F&V consumption is an important dietary risk factor for disease internationally. High F&V prices can be a barrier to dietary intake and so to improve understanding of this topic we surveyed prices and potential competition between F&V outlet types. METHODS: Over a three week early autumn period in 2013, prices were collected bi-weekly for 18 commonly purchased F&Vs from farmers' markets (FM selling local produce (n = 3, other F&V markets (OFVM (n = 5, supermarkets that neighbored markets (n = 8, and more distant supermarkets (n = 8, (in urban Wellington and Christchurch areas of New Zealand. Prices from an online supermarket were also collected. RESULTS: A total of 3120 prices were collected. Most F&Vs (13/18 were significantly cheaper at OFVMs than supermarkets. Over half of the F&Vs (10/18 were significantly cheaper at nearby compared to distant supermarkets, providing evidence of a moderate 'halo effect' in price reductions in supermarkets that neighbored markets. Weekend (vs midweek prices were also significantly cheaper at nearby (vs distant supermarkets, supporting evidence for a 'halo effect'. Ideal weekly 'food basket' prices for a two adult, two child family were: OFVMs (NZ$76, online supermarket ($113, nearby supermarkets ($124, distant supermarkets ($127, and FMs ($138. This represents a savings of $49 per week (US$26 by using OFVMs relative to (non-online supermarkets. Similarly, a shift from non-online supermarkets to the online supermarket would generate a $13 saving. CONCLUSIONS: In these locations general markets appear to be providing some substantially lower prices for fruit and vegetables than supermarkets. They also appear to be depressing prices in neighboring supermarkets. These results, when supplemented by other needed research, may help inform the case for interventions to improve access to fruit and vegetables, particularly for low-income populations.

Relationship between oil prices, interest rate, and unemployment. Evidence from an emerging market

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dogrul, H. Guensel; Soytas, Ugur

2010-01-01

While the interrelation between oil price changes, economic activity and employment is an important issue that has been studied mainly for developed countries, little attention has been devoted to inquiries on fluctuations in the price of crude oil and its impact on employment for small open economies. Adopting an efficiency wage model for equilibrium employment that does not require any assumptions regarding labor supply, this paper contributes to the literature by investigating the causality between unemployment and two input prices, namely energy (crude oil) and capital (real interest rate) in an emerging market, Turkey for the period 2005:01-2009:08. Applying a relatively new technique, the Toda-Yamamoto procedure, we find that the real price of oil and interest rate improve the forecasts of unemployment in the long run. This finding supports the hypothesis that labor is a substitute factor of production for capital and energy. (author)

Is congestion pricing a first-best strategy in transport policy? A critical review of arguments

OpenAIRE

R H M Emmerink; P Nijkamp; P Rietveld

1995-01-01

In this paper, the arguments used in the literature pro and contra congestion pricing are analysed. Although it is a first-best instrument in theory, it is argued that the assumptions needed to arrive at this conclusion oversimplify reality. In practice, congestion pricing is a second-best instrument with some advantages over other second-best instruments, but it will also give rise to numerous problems, as discussed in the paper. These problems will be illustrated with the Dutch attempts to ...

Power transmission pricing: issues and international experience

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bodenhoefer, H.J.; Wohlgemuth, N.

2001-01-01

A key aspect of electricity industry reorganization is transmission pricing because it heavily influences the degree of effective competition in 'liberalized' electricity markets. this paper presents an overview transmission pricing models, of issues related to an effective design of a transmission pricing approach, and presents approaches implemented internationally. A conclusion is that, due to the great number of institutional designs of electricity market organizations, particularly in Europe, it will be difficult to design/implement a model of cross-border transmission pricing that is capable of inducing a high degree of non-discriminatory international competition in electricity markets. (author)

Optimal pricing and lot sizing vendor managed inventory

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mohsen Ziaee

2010-07-01

Full Text Available Vendor Managed Inventory (VMI is one of the effective techniques for managing theinventory in supply chain. VMI models have been proven to reduce the cost of inventorycompared with traditional economic order quantity method under some conditions such asconstant demand and production expenditure. However, the modeling of the VMI problem hasnever been studied under some realistic assumptions such as price dependent demand. In thispaper, three problem formulations are proposed. In the first problem formulation, we study aVMI problem with one buyer and one supplier when demand is considered to be a function ofprice and price elasticity to demand, and production cost is also a function of demand. Theproposed model is formulated and solved in a form of geometric programming. For the secondand the third models, we consider VMI problem with two buyers and two suppliers assumingthat each buyer centre is relatively close to the other buyer centre. Each supplier has only oneproduct which is different from the product of the other supplier. Two suppliers cooperate incustomer relationship management and two buyers cooperate in supplier relationshipmanagement as well, so the suppliers send the orders of two buyers by one vehicle,simultaneously. For the third model, an additional assumption which is practically applicableand reasonable is considered. For all the proposed models, the optimal solution is comparedwith the traditional one. We demonstrate the implementation of our proposed models usingsome numerical examples.

Improved structural pricing model for the fair market price of Sukuk Ijarah in Indonesia

Science.gov (United States)

Rosadi, D.; Muslim

2017-12-01

Shariah financial products are currently developing in Indonesia financial market. One of the most important products is called as Sukuk which is commonly referred to as "sharia compliant" bonds. The type of Sukuk that have been widely traded in Indonesia until now are Sukuk Ijarah and Sukuk Mudharabah. In [1], we discuss various models for the price of the fixed-non-callable Sukuk Ijarah and provide the empirical studies using data from Indonesia Bonds market. We found that the structural model considered in [1] cannot model the market price empirically well. In this paper, we consider the improved model and show that it performs well for modelling the fair market price of Sukuk Ijarah.

The Character of Price Transmission Within Milk Commodity Chain in the Czech Republic

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Barbora Dudová

2015-01-01

Full Text Available The article is focused on price transmission within milk commodity chain in the Czech Republic. The article distinct on milk products with low value added – cow milk/paper box milk and products with higher value added – cow milk/butter. Price transmission is measured by the coefficient of elasticity of the price transmission (EPT; price transfer is examined in demand as well as supply direction. Next part of the analysis measures price differences (by coefficient determination – R2 in supply direction. Last step in this analysis is the impact of time delay at the price transmission process (measured by R2. The price transmission is asymmetric in the supply direction on both parts of commodity chain (EPT = 0.29 and 0.62, in the demand direction is more symmetric (EPT = 0.31 and 1.02. The assumption of better transfer of positive price changes was confirmed. At the commodity chain of milk/dairy products the time delay is not so much important. With both tested commodity chains there was found higher power of downstream markets, proving demand driven behaviour of these commodity chains, and there was detected oligopsony market structure as well. The data represent monthly prices on both chosen vertical levels in the period of 1/2000–8/2013.

Do food and oil prices co-move?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Reboredo, Juan C.

2012-01-01

This paper studies co-movements between world oil prices and global prices for corn, soybean and wheat using copulas. Several copula models with different conditional dependence structures and time-varying dependence parameters were considered. Empirical results for weekly data from January 1998 to April 2011 showed weak oil-food dependence and no extreme market dependence between oil and food prices. These results support the neutrality of agricultural commodity markets to the effects of changes in oil prices and non-contagion between the crude oil and agricultural markets. However, dependence increased significantly in the last three years of the sampling period, even though upper tail dependence remained insignificant, indicating that food price spikes are not caused by positive extreme oil price changes. These results have implications for policy design, risk management and hedging strategies. - Highlights: ► We study co-movement between food and oil markets through copulas. ► Food prices are neutral to the effects of changes in oil prices. ► Oil price spikes had no causal effect on agricultural price spikes. ► Oil–corn and oil–soybean dependence increased in recent years. ► Food subsidy policies and price controls are unnecessary to avoid extreme oil prices.

The evolution of electricity prices in an uncertain world. Contracting and managing the price risk

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Vassilopoulos, Ph.; Rapin, D.

2004-01-01

With the liberalization of the electricity market, the large industrial consumers saw their electric bill changing nature. Before, this price reflected a long term negotiation with the monopoly, now it is established in a free way via wholesale markets. This evolution marks a transfer of the management of price risk from the producer towards the consumer. This change is not in itself a problem if the hedging instruments are adapted. We note a contamination of the price of the derivative products by the spot while at the same time the traditional relation between cash and term is not always valid for electricity because of its non storability. When well even the price of the derivative products would be formed in an autonomous way, it poses a second problem: that of their indexing on price references like Platt's whose result is assimilated more to a survey of large producers than a true confrontation of supply and demand. This article proposes to examine this change of nature and behaviour of electricity prices. After having explained the intrinsically volatile characteristic of spot prices, we will recall that the products in the long term are not always optimal solutions to decrease this price risk. Lastly, we will highlight a solution of skirting at the risks mentioned above: contracting between producers and consumers. (authors)

The impact of oil price on additions to US proven reserves

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Farzin, Y.H.

2001-01-01

Departing from Hotelling's assumption of fixed and known reserves, this paper develops an economic model of additions to proven reserves that explicitly incorporates the effects of expected resource price, cumulative reserves development, and technological progress on reserve additions. The model treats additions to proven oil reserves as output of a production process in which drilling wells is a primary input to transform some of oil-in-place into the economic category of proven reserves. Application of the model to US data for the 1950-1995 period provides strong statistical support for the existence of all the three salient effects. We obtain an estimate of the price elasticity of reserve additions (absent from previous studies) which, although statistically highly significant, is rather small. Using this price elasticity estimate, it is shown that if in the face of steady economic growth, and hence, oil consumption, US oil import dependence is to be kept from rising in the future, ceteris paribus, a steady oil price increase in the range of 1.5-4.5% a year is essential

Universal scaling and nonlinearity of aggregate price impact in financial markets

Science.gov (United States)

Patzelt, Felix; Bouchaud, Jean-Philippe

2018-01-01

How and why stock prices move is a centuries-old question still not answered conclusively. More recently, attention shifted to higher frequencies, where trades are processed piecewise across different time scales. Here we reveal that price impact has a universal nonlinear shape for trades aggregated on any intraday scale. Its shape varies little across instruments, but drastically different master curves are obtained for order-volume and -sign impact. The scaling is largely determined by the relevant Hurst exponents. We further show that extreme order-flow imbalance is not associated with large returns. To the contrary, it is observed when the price is pinned to a particular level. Prices move only when there is sufficient balance in the local order flow. In fact, the probability that a trade changes the midprice falls to zero with increasing (absolute) order-sign bias along an arc-shaped curve for all intraday scales. Our findings challenge the widespread assumption of linear aggregate impact. They imply that market dynamics on all intraday time scales are shaped by correlations and bilateral adaptation in the flows of liquidity provision and taking.

A vector autoregressive model for electricity prices subject to long memory and regime switching

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Haldrup, Niels; Nielsen, Frank S.; Nielsen, Morten Oerregaard

2010-01-01

A regime dependent VAR model is suggested that allows long memory (fractional integration) in each of the observed regime states as well as the possibility of fractional cointegration. The model is motivated by the dynamics of electricity prices where the transmission of power is subject to occasional congestion periods. For a system of bilateral prices non-congestion means that electricity prices are identical whereas congestion makes prices depart. Hence, the joint price dynamics implies switching between a univariate price process under non-congestion and a bivariate price process under congestion. At the same time, it is an empirical regularity that electricity prices tend to show a high degree of long memory, and thus that prices may be fractionally cointegrated. Analysis of Nord Pool data shows that even though the prices are identical under non-congestion, the prices are not, in general, fractionally cointegrated in the congestion state. Hence, in most cases price convergence is a property following from regime switching rather than a conventional error correction mechanism. Finally, the suggested model is shown to deliver forecasts that are more precise compared to competing models. (author)

Energy conservation and petroleum substitution

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kebbekus, J; Kraft-Woelfel, G

1982-04-01

Shortage and price increases for energy have caused large population groups to give new thought to the subject. For the knowledge on energy necessary to make a decision, ultimate consumers mostly rely on their social environment, personal contacts and the media. Important information on energy conservation should be provided by regional electric utilities. A concept for this purpose is discussed.

7 CFR 1124.50 - Class prices, component prices, and advanced pricing factors.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-01-01

... 7 Agriculture 9 2010-01-01 2009-01-01 true Class prices, component prices, and advanced pricing factors. 1124.50 Section 1124.50 Agriculture Regulations of the Department of Agriculture (Continued... prices, and advanced pricing factors. See § 1000.50. ...

7 CFR 1030.50 - Class prices, component prices, and advanced pricing factors.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-01-01

... 7 Agriculture 9 2010-01-01 2009-01-01 true Class prices, component prices, and advanced pricing factors. 1030.50 Section 1030.50 Agriculture Regulations of the Department of Agriculture (Continued... prices, and advanced pricing factors. See § 1000.50. ...

Game auction prices are not related to biodiversity contributions of southern African ungulates and large carnivores

Science.gov (United States)

Dalerum, Fredrik; Miranda, Maria

2016-02-01

There is an urgent need for human societies to become environmentally sustainable. Because public policy is largely driven by economic processes, quantifications of the relationship between market prices and environmental values can provide important information for developing strategies towards sustainability. Wildlife in southern Africa is often privately owned and traded at game auctions to be utilized for commercial purposes mostly related to tourism. This market offers an interesting opportunity to evaluate how market prices relate to biologically meaningful species characteristics. In this market, prices were not correlated with species contributions to either phylogenetic or functional diversity, and species contributions to phylogenetic or functional diversity did not influence the trends in prices over time for the past 20 years. Since this economic market did not seem to appreciate evolutionary or ecologically relevant characteristics, we question if the game tourism market may contribute towards biodiversity conservation in southern Africa. We suggest that market prices in general may have limited values as guides for directing conservation and environmental management. We further suggest that there is a need to evaluate what humans value in biological organisms, and how potentially necessary shifts in such values can be instigated.

Gas prices and price process

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Groenewegen, G.G.

1992-01-01

On a conference (Gas for Europe in the 1990's) during the Gasexpo '91 the author held a speech of which the Dutch text is presented here. Attention is paid to the current European pricing methods (prices based on the costs of buying, transporting and distributing the natural gas and prices based on the market value, which is deducted from the prices of alternative fuels), and the transparency of the prices (lack of information on the way the prices are determined). Also attention is paid to the market signal transparency and gas-gas competition, which means a more or less free market of gas distribution. The risks of gas-to-gas competition for a long term price stability, investment policies and security of supply are discussed. Opposition against the Third Party Access (TPA), which is the program to implement gas-to-gas competition, is caused by the fear of natural gas companies for lower gas prices and lower profits. Finally attention is paid to government regulation and the activities of the European Commission (EC) in this matter. 1 fig., 6 ills., 1 tab

The effect of uncertainty and aggregate investments on crude oil price dynamics

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tvedt, Jostein

2002-01-01

This paper is a study of the dynamics of the oil industry and we derive a mean reverting process for the crude oil price. Oil is supplied by a market leader, OPEC, and by an aggregate that represents non-OPEC producers. The non-OPEC producers take the oil price as given. The cost of non-OPEC producers depends on past investments. Shifts in these investments are influenced by costs of structural change in the construction industry. A drop in the oil price to below a given level triggers lower investments, but if the oil price reverts back to a high level investments may not immediately expand. In an uncertain oil demand environment cost of structural change creates a value of waiting to invest. This investment behaviour influences the oil price process

Identification of evolutionarily conserved non-AUG-initiated N-terminal extensions in human coding sequences.

LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

Ivanov, Ivaylo P

2011-05-01

In eukaryotes, it is generally assumed that translation initiation occurs at the AUG codon closest to the messenger RNA 5\\' cap. However, in certain cases, initiation can occur at codons differing from AUG by a single nucleotide, especially the codons CUG, UUG, GUG, ACG, AUA and AUU. While non-AUG initiation has been experimentally verified for a handful of human genes, the full extent to which this phenomenon is utilized--both for increased coding capacity and potentially also for novel regulatory mechanisms--remains unclear. To address this issue, and hence to improve the quality of existing coding sequence annotations, we developed a methodology based on phylogenetic analysis of predicted 5\\' untranslated regions from orthologous genes. We use evolutionary signatures of protein-coding sequences as an indicator of translation initiation upstream of annotated coding sequences. Our search identified novel conserved potential non-AUG-initiated N-terminal extensions in 42 human genes including VANGL2, FGFR1, KCNN4, TRPV6, HDGF, CITED2, EIF4G3 and NTF3, and also affirmed the conservation of known non-AUG-initiated extensions in 17 other genes. In several instances, we have been able to obtain independent experimental evidence of the expression of non-AUG-initiated products from the previously published literature and ribosome profiling data.

A Study on Rational Pricing System for Water Supply

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Moon, H.J. [Korea Environment Institute, Seoul (Korea)

2001-12-01

Reasonable pricing of water can induce optimal water use by the public by relaying the considerable costs of water provision and plays an important role of providing a basic scheme for the reasonable management of water. This study provides a reasonable pricing scheme of water that reflects the economic and social values of water as a resource by investigating reasonable bulk-water pricing and retail-water pricing. For bulk pricing, the study discuss the range of costs to be covered, design of efficient pricing structures(differentiated by source quality, loss ratios and time year), and sharing efficient costs between beneficiaries (customer groups and regions). The study also addresses the adjustment of present charging schemes for bulk water such as charges for bulk water from dam, abstraction charges, and river charges etc. Factoring in demand and available resource characteristics, the differentiated pricing mechanism is also investigated. The study proposes a differentiated pricing mechanism based on season, where the pricing structure reflects the cost structure related to fluctuated demand. In addition, implementation methods and effects of introducing seasonal pricing scheme are discussed. Another seasonal pricing mechanism, the seasonally differentiated pricing scheme in bulk pricing reflects a cost structure related to resource availability, is also investigated. Increasing block rate as a reasonable pricing scheme for water conservation, and priority pricing as a tool socially desirable water allocation in the case water shortage are designed. for practical implementation of pricing scheme, several issues are discussed: identification and calculation of costs that should be covered and the structure of costs as a basis of differentiated pricing scheme, issue of forecasting, and practical that could be happen in the implementation of increasing block rate and seasonal pricing schemes, etc. Institutional systems that implement the proposed pricing schemes

The New Keynesian Approach to Business Cycle Theory: Nominal and Real Rigidities

OpenAIRE

Monica Dobrescu

2012-01-01

At the heart of the Neoclassical synthesis lies the assumption that prices do not adjust instantly to equilibrate supply and demand. Under these circumstances, once the synthesis failed, economists naturally started to investigate whether the imperfect adjustment of prices could be logically inferred from realistic assumptions regarding the microeconomic environment, and subsequent research led to a variety of new non-walrasian theories regarding the functioning of markets. Thus, the non-walr...

On the strong solution of a class of partial differential equations that arise in the pricing of mortgage backed securities

KAUST Repository

Parshad, Rana; Bayazit, Derviş; Barlow, Nathaniel S.; Prasad, V. Ramchandra

2011-01-01

We consider a reduced form pricing model for mortgage backed securities, formulated as a non-linear partial differential equation. We prove that the model possesses a weak solution. We then show that under additional regularity assumptions on the initial data, we also have a mild solution. This mild solution is shown to be a strong solution via further regularity arguments. We also numerically solve the reduced model via a Fourier spectral method. Lastly, we compare our numerical solution to real market data. We observe interestingly that the reduced model captures a number of recent market trends in this data, that have escaped previous models.

Option Valuation with Volatility Components, Fat Tails, and Non-Monotonic Pricing Kernels

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Babaoglu, Kadir; Christoffersen, Peter; Heston, Steven L.

We nest multiple volatility components, fat tails and a U-shaped pricing kernel in a single option model and compare their contribution to describing returns and option data. All three features lead to statistically significant model improvements. A U-shaped pricing kernel is economically most im...

The pricing of credit default swaps under a generalized mixed fractional Brownian motion

Science.gov (United States)

He, Xinjiang; Chen, Wenting

2014-06-01

In this paper, we consider the pricing of the CDS (credit default swap) under a GMFBM (generalized mixed fractional Brownian motion) model. As the name suggests, the GMFBM model is indeed a generalization of all the FBM (fractional Brownian motion) models used in the literature, and is proved to be able to effectively capture the long-range dependence of the stock returns. To develop the pricing mechanics of the CDS, we firstly derive a sufficient condition for the market modeled under the GMFBM to be arbitrage free. Then under the risk-neutral assumption, the CDS is fairly priced by investigating the two legs of the cash flow involved. The price we obtained involves elementary functions only, and can be easily implemented for practical purpose. Finally, based on numerical experiments, we analyze quantitatively the impacts of different parameters on the prices of the CDS. Interestingly, in comparison with all the other FBM models documented in the literature, the results produced from the GMFBM model are in a better agreement with those calculated from the classical Black-Scholes model.

Asymmetrical distribution of non-conserved regulatory sequences at PHOX2B is reflected at the ENCODE loci and illuminates a possible genome-wide trend

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

McCallion Andrew S

2009-01-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Transcriptional regulatory elements are central to development and interspecific phenotypic variation. Current regulatory element prediction tools rely heavily upon conservation for prediction of putative elements. Recent in vitro observations from the ENCODE project combined with in vivo analyses at the zebrafish phox2b locus suggests that a significant fraction of regulatory elements may fall below commonly applied metrics of conservation. We propose to explore these observations in vivo at the human PHOX2B locus, and also evaluate the potential evidence for genome-wide applicability of these observations through a novel analysis of extant data. Results Transposon-based transgenic analysis utilizing a tiling path proximal to human PHOX2B in zebrafish recapitulates the observations at the zebrafish phox2b locus of both conserved and non-conserved regulatory elements. Analysis of human sequences conserved with previously identified zebrafish phox2b regulatory elements demonstrates that the orthologous sequences exhibit overlapping regulatory control. Additionally, analysis of non-conserved sequences scattered over 135 kb 5' to PHOX2B, provides evidence of non-conserved regulatory elements positively biased with close proximity to the gene. Furthermore, we provide a novel analysis of data from the ENCODE project, finding a non-uniform distribution of regulatory elements consistent with our in vivo observations at PHOX2B. These observations remain largely unchanged when one accounts for the sequence repeat content of the assayed intervals, when the intervals are sub-classified by biological role (developmental versus non-developmental, or by gene density (gene desert versus non-gene desert. Conclusion While regulatory elements frequently display evidence of evolutionary conservation, a fraction appears to be undetected by current metrics of conservation. In vivo observations at the PHOX2B locus, supported by our analyses of in

Pricing of reserves. Valuing system reserve capacity against spot prices in electricity markets

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Just, Sebastian; Weber, Christoph

2008-01-01

This paper models the interdependencies between markets for secondary reserve capacity and spot electricity to derive the pricing of reserves under equilibrium conditions. Starting with the indifference condition between offering in both markets, the reservation price is derived from the opportunity cost consideration and the unit commitment conditions in a fundamental interrelated market framework. The reserve market examined compares widely to the German market for secondary reserves, but the general approach may also be used to investigate other reserve markets. The approach explores and formalizes the influence of reserve capacity on the spot market supply function. A numerical solution procedure is provided to this non-trivial case of market interaction. The model is used to estimate the expected reservation price development over the last years in Germany. (author)

Quasilocal conservation laws in XXZ spin-1/2 chains: Open, periodic and twisted boundary conditions

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Tomaž Prosen

2014-09-01

Full Text Available A continuous family of quasilocal exact conservation laws is constructed in the anisotropic Heisenberg (XXZ spin-1/2 chain for periodic (or twisted boundary conditions and for a set of commensurate anisotropies densely covering the entire easy plane interaction regime. All local conserved operators follow from the standard (Hermitian transfer operator in fundamental representation (with auxiliary spin s=1/2, and are all even with respect to a spin flip operation. However, the quasilocal family is generated by differentiation of a non-Hermitian highest weight transfer operator with respect to a complex auxiliary spin representation parameter s and includes also operators of odd parity. For a finite chain with open boundaries the time derivatives of quasilocal operators are not strictly vanishing but result in operators localized near the boundaries of the chain. We show that a simple modification of the non-Hermitian transfer operator results in exactly conserved, but still quasilocal operators for periodic or generally twisted boundary conditions. As an application, we demonstrate that implementing the new exactly conserved operator family for estimating the high-temperature spin Drude weight results, in the thermodynamic limit, in exactly the same lower bound as for almost conserved family and open boundaries. Under the assumption that the bound is saturating (suggested by agreement with previous thermodynamic Bethe ansatz calculations we propose a simple explicit construction of infinite time averages of local operators such as the spin current.

What Drives China's Food-Price Inflation and How does It Affect the Aggregate Inflation?

OpenAIRE

Wenlang Zhang; Daniel Law

2010-01-01

It is typically argued that China's food-price inflation has been mainly driven by supply-side shocks including natural disasters. Our research, however, shows that demand pressures have played a more important role from a medium-term perspective. This suggests surging food prices may call for policy reactions even if non-food-price inflation is tame. Meanwhile, we find food-price inflation has not generated significant second-round effects on non-food-price inflation. In particular, while fo...

Endogenous Price Bubbles in a Multi-Agent System of the Housing Market.

Science.gov (United States)

Kouwenberg, Roy; Zwinkels, Remco C J

2015-01-01

Economic history shows a large number of boom-bust cycles, with the U.S. real estate market as one of the latest examples. Classical economic models have not been able to provide a full explanation for this type of market dynamics. Therefore, we analyze home prices in the U.S. using an alternative approach, a multi-agent complex system. Instead of the classical assumptions of agent rationality and market efficiency, agents in the model are heterogeneous, adaptive, and boundedly rational. We estimate the multi-agent system with historical house prices for the U.S. market. The model fits the data well and a deterministic version of the model can endogenously produce boom-and-bust cycles on the basis of the estimated coefficients. This implies that trading between agents themselves can create major price swings in absence of fundamental news.

Endogenous Price Bubbles in a Multi-Agent System of the Housing Market.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Roy Kouwenberg

Full Text Available Economic history shows a large number of boom-bust cycles, with the U.S. real estate market as one of the latest examples. Classical economic models have not been able to provide a full explanation for this type of market dynamics. Therefore, we analyze home prices in the U.S. using an alternative approach, a multi-agent complex system. Instead of the classical assumptions of agent rationality and market efficiency, agents in the model are heterogeneous, adaptive, and boundedly rational. We estimate the multi-agent system with historical house prices for the U.S. market. The model fits the data well and a deterministic version of the model can endogenously produce boom-and-bust cycles on the basis of the estimated coefficients. This implies that trading between agents themselves can create major price swings in absence of fundamental news.