The climatic out of control. the climatic forcing

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bony-Lena, S.; Dufresne, J.L.; Acot, P.; Friedlingstein, P.; Berger, A.; Loutre, M.L.; Raynaud, D.; Thuiller, W.; Le Treut, H.; Houssais, M.N.; Duplessy, J.C.; Royer, J.F.; Douville, H.; Barberousse, A.; Quinon, P.

2007-01-01

The expert group on the climate evolution affirms that the global warming is unequivocal and that the human being is the main responsible. This document broaches the climatic change under many aspects: the principle, the historical aspect of the greenhouse effect, the GIEC, the carbon cycle, the paleo-climate theory, the antarctic ices and the impacts of the climatic change on the biodiversity, the simulations and the models, the climatic indicators and the climatic forcing by human activities. (A.L.B.)

Irrigation as an Historical Climate Forcing

Science.gov (United States)

Cook, Benjamin I.; Shukla, Sonali P.; Puma, Michael J.; Nazarenko, Larissa S.

2014-01-01

Irrigation is the single largest anthropogenic water use, a modification of the land surface that significantly affects surface energy budgets, the water cycle, and climate. Irrigation, however, is typically not included in standard historical general circulation model (GCM) simulations along with other anthropogenic and natural forcings. To investigate the importance of irrigation as an anthropogenic climate forcing, we conduct two 5-member ensemble GCM experiments. Both are setup identical to the historical forced (anthropogenic plus natural) scenario used in version 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, but in one experiment we also add water to the land surface using a dataset of historically estimated irrigation rates. Irrigation has a negligible effect on the global average radiative balance at the top of the atmosphere, but causes significant cooling of global average surface air temperatures over land and dampens regional warming trends. This cooling is regionally focused and is especially strong in Western North America, the Mediterranean, the Middle East, and Asia. Irrigation enhances cloud cover and precipitation in these same regions, except for summer in parts of Monsoon Asia, where irrigation causes a reduction in monsoon season precipitation. Irrigation cools the surface, reducing upward fluxes of longwave radiation (increasing net longwave), and increases cloud cover, enhancing shortwave reflection (reducing net shortwave). The relative magnitude of these two processes causes regional increases (northern India) or decreases (Central Asia, China) in energy availability at the surface and top of the atmosphere. Despite these changes in net radiation, however, climate responses are due primarily to larger magnitude shifts in the Bowen ratio from sensible to latent heating. Irrigation impacts on temperature, precipitation, and other climate variables are regionally significant, even while other anthropogenic forcings (anthropogenic aerosols

Oxygen Non-Stoichiometry and Electrical Conductivity of LA0.2Sr0.8Fe0.8B0.2O3-d, B = Fe, Ti, Ta

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Lohne, O.F.; Phung, T.N.; Grande, T.; Bouwmeester, Henricus J.M.; Hendriksen, P.V.; Sogaard, M.; Wiik, K.

2014-01-01

The oxygen non-stoichiometry was determined by coulometric titration for the perovskite oxides La0.2Sr0.8FeO3−δ and La0.2Sr0.8Fe0.8B0.2O3−δ (B = Ti4+ and Ta5+) in the temperature range 600 ◦C ≤ T ≤ 900 ◦C and the oxygen partial pressure range: 1 · 10−15 ≤ pO2 ≤ 0.209 atm. The non-stoichiometry (δ)

Non-climatic thermal adaptation: implications for species' responses to climate warming.

Science.gov (United States)

Marshall, David J; McQuaid, Christopher D; Williams, Gray A

2010-10-23

There is considerable interest in understanding how ectothermic animals may physiologically and behaviourally buffer the effects of climate warming. Much less consideration is being given to how organisms might adapt to non-climatic heat sources in ways that could confound predictions for responses of species and communities to climate warming. Although adaptation to non-climatic heat sources (solar and geothermal) seems likely in some marine species, climate warming predictions for marine ectotherms are largely based on adaptation to climatically relevant heat sources (air or surface sea water temperature). Here, we show that non-climatic solar heating underlies thermal resistance adaptation in a rocky-eulittoral-fringe snail. Comparisons of the maximum temperatures of the air, the snail's body and the rock substratum with solar irradiance and physiological performance show that the highest body temperature is primarily controlled by solar heating and re-radiation, and that the snail's upper lethal temperature exceeds the highest climatically relevant regional air temperature by approximately 22°C. Non-climatic thermal adaptation probably features widely among marine and terrestrial ectotherms and because it could enable species to tolerate climatic rises in air temperature, it deserves more consideration in general and for inclusion into climate warming models.

Expert judgments about transient climate response to alternative future trajectories of radiative forcing.

Science.gov (United States)

Zickfeld, Kirsten; Morgan, M Granger; Frame, David J; Keith, David W

2010-07-13

There is uncertainty about the response of the climate system to future trajectories of radiative forcing. To quantify this uncertainty we conducted face-to-face interviews with 14 leading climate scientists, using formal methods of expert elicitation. We structured the interviews around three scenarios of radiative forcing stabilizing at different levels. All experts ranked "cloud radiative feedbacks" as contributing most to their uncertainty about future global mean temperature change, irrespective of the specified level of radiative forcing. The experts disagreed about the relative contribution of other physical processes to their uncertainty about future temperature change. For a forcing trajectory that stabilized at 7 Wm(-2) in 2200, 13 of the 14 experts judged the probability that the climate system would undergo, or be irrevocably committed to, a "basic state change" as > or =0.5. The width and median values of the probability distributions elicited from the different experts for future global mean temperature change under the specified forcing trajectories vary considerably. Even for a moderate increase in forcing by the year 2050, the medians of the elicited distributions of temperature change relative to 2000 range from 0.8-1.8 degrees C, and some of the interquartile ranges do not overlap. Ten of the 14 experts estimated that the probability that equilibrium climate sensitivity exceeds 4.5 degrees C is > 0.17, our interpretation of the upper limit of the "likely" range given by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Finally, most experts anticipated that over the next 20 years research will be able to achieve only modest reductions in their degree of uncertainty.

Framing Climate Goals in Terms of Cumulative CO2-Forcing-Equivalent Emissions

Science.gov (United States)

Jenkins, S.; Millar, R. J.; Leach, N.; Allen, M. R.

2018-03-01

The relationship between cumulative CO2 emissions and CO2-induced warming is determined by the Transient Climate Response to Emissions (TCRE), but total anthropogenic warming also depends on non-CO2 forcing, complicating the interpretation of emissions budgets based on CO2 alone. An alternative is to frame emissions budgets in terms of CO2-forcing-equivalent (CO2-fe) emissions—the CO2 emissions that would yield a given total anthropogenic radiative forcing pathway. Unlike conventional "CO2-equivalent" emissions, these are directly related to warming by the TCRE and need to fall to zero to stabilize warming: hence, CO2-fe emissions generalize the concept of a cumulative carbon budget to multigas scenarios. Cumulative CO2-fe emissions from 1870 to 2015 inclusive are found to be 2,900 ± 600 GtCO2-fe, increasing at a rate of 67 ± 9.5 GtCO2-fe/yr. A TCRE range of 0.8-2.5°C per 1,000 GtC implies a total budget for 0.6°C of additional warming above the present decade of 880-2,750 GtCO2-fe, with 1,290 GtCO2-fe implied by the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 median response, corresponding to 19 years' CO2-fe emissions at the current rate.

How weather impacts the forced climate response

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kirtman, Ben P. [University of Miami, Division of Meteorology and Physical Oceanography, Rosenstiel School for Atmospheric and Marine Science, Miami, FL (United States); Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies, Calverton, MD (United States); Schneider, Edwin K.; Straus, David M. [George Mason University, Department of Atmospheric, Oceanic and Earth Sciences, Fairfax, VA (United States); Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies, Calverton, MD (United States); Min, Dughong; Burgman, Robert [University of Miami, Division of Meteorology and Physical Oceanography, Rosenstiel School for Atmospheric and Marine Science, Miami, FL (United States)

2011-12-15

The new interactive ensemble modeling strategy is used to diagnose how noise due to internal atmospheric dynamics impacts the forced climate response during the twentieth century (i.e., 1870-1999). The interactive ensemble uses multiple realizations of the atmospheric component model coupled to a single realization of the land, ocean and ice component models in order to reduce the noise due to internal atmospheric dynamics in the flux exchange at the interface of the component models. A control ensemble of so-called climate of the twentieth century simulations of the Community Climate Simulation Model version 3 (CCSM3) are compared with a similar simulation with the interactive ensemble version of CCSM3. Despite substantial differences in the overall mean climate, the global mean trends in surface temperature, 500 mb geopotential and precipitation are largely indistinguishable between the control ensemble and the interactive ensemble. Large differences in the forced response; however, are detected particularly in the surface temperature of the North Atlantic. Associated with the forced North Atlantic surface temperature differences are local differences in the forced precipitation and a substantial remote rainfall response in the deep tropical Pacific. We also introduce a simple variance analysis to separately compare the variance due to noise and the forced response. We find that the noise variance is decreased when external forcing is included. In terms of the forced variance, we find that the interactive ensemble increases this variance relative to the control. (orig.)

Attribution of climate forcing to economic sectors.

Science.gov (United States)

Unger, Nadine; Bond, Tami C; Wang, James S; Koch, Dorothy M; Menon, Surabi; Shindell, Drew T; Bauer, Susanne

2010-02-23

A much-cited bar chart provided by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change displays the climate impact, as expressed by radiative forcing in watts per meter squared, of individual chemical species. The organization of the chart reflects the history of atmospheric chemistry, in which investigators typically focused on a single species of interest. However, changes in pollutant emissions and concentrations are a symptom, not a cause, of the primary driver of anthropogenic climate change: human activity. In this paper, we suggest organizing the bar chart according to drivers of change-that is, by economic sector. Climate impacts of tropospheric ozone, fine aerosols, aerosol-cloud interactions, methane, and long-lived greenhouse gases are considered. We quantify the future evolution of the total radiative forcing due to perpetual constant year 2000 emissions by sector, most relevant for the development of climate policy now, and focus on two specific time points, near-term at 2020 and long-term at 2100. Because sector profiles differ greatly, this approach fosters the development of smart climate policy and is useful to identify effective opportunities for rapid mitigation of anthropogenic radiative forcing.

Improved attribution of climate forcing to emissions by pollutant and sector

Science.gov (United States)

Shindell, D. T.

2009-12-01

Evaluating multi-component climate change mitigation strategies requires knowledge of the diverse direct and indirect effects of emissions. Methane, ozone and aerosols are linked through atmospheric chemistry so that emissions of a single pollutant can affect several species. I will show new calculations of atmospheric composition changes, radiative forcing, and the global warming potential (GWP) for increased emissions of tropospheric ozone and aerosol precursors in a coupled composition-climate model. The results demonstrate that gas-aerosol interactions substantially alter the relative importance of the various emissions, suggesting revisions to the GWPs used in international carbon trading. Additionally, I will present results showing how the net climate impact of particular activities depends strongly upon non-CO2 forcing agents for some sectors. These results will be highlighted by discussing the interplay between air quality emissions controls and climate for the case of emissions from coal-fired power plants. The changing balance between CO2 and air quality pollutants from coal plants may have contributed to the 20th century spatial and temporal patterns of climate change, and is likely to continue to do so as more and more plants are constructed in Asia.

ForC: a global database of forest carbon stocks and fluxes.

Science.gov (United States)

Anderson-Teixeira, Kristina J; Wang, Maria M H; McGarvey, Jennifer C; Herrmann, Valentine; Tepley, Alan J; Bond-Lamberty, Ben; LeBauer, David S

2018-06-01

Forests play an influential role in the global carbon (C) cycle, storing roughly half of terrestrial C and annually exchanging with the atmosphere more than five times the carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emitted by anthropogenic activities. Yet, scaling up from field-based measurements of forest C stocks and fluxes to understand global scale C cycling and its climate sensitivity remains an important challenge. Tens of thousands of forest C measurements have been made, but these data have yet to be integrated into a single database that makes them accessible for integrated analyses. Here we present an open-access global Forest Carbon database (ForC) containing previously published records of field-based measurements of ecosystem-level C stocks and annual fluxes, along with disturbance history and methodological information. ForC expands upon the previously published tropical portion of this database, TropForC (https://doi.org/10.5061/dryad.t516f), now including 17,367 records (previously 3,568) representing 2,731 plots (previously 845) in 826 geographically distinct areas. The database covers all forested biogeographic and climate zones, represents forest stands of all ages, and currently includes data collected between 1934 and 2015. We expect that ForC will prove useful for macroecological analyses of forest C cycling, for evaluation of model predictions or remote sensing products, for quantifying the contribution of forests to the global C cycle, and for supporting international efforts to inventory forest carbon and greenhouse gas exchange. A dynamic version of ForC is maintained at on GitHub (https://GitHub.com/forc-db), and we encourage the research community to collaborate in updating, correcting, expanding, and utilizing this database. ForC is an open access database, and we encourage use of the data for scientific research and education purposes. Data may not be used for commercial purposes without written permission of the database PI. Any publications using ForC

CLIMATE CHANGE. Long-term climate forcing by atmospheric oxygen concentrations.

Science.gov (United States)

Poulsen, Christopher J; Tabor, Clay; White, Joseph D

2015-06-12

The percentage of oxygen in Earth's atmosphere varied between 10% and 35% throughout the Phanerozoic. These changes have been linked to the evolution, radiation, and size of animals but have not been considered to affect climate. We conducted simulations showing that modulation of the partial pressure of oxygen (pO2), as a result of its contribution to atmospheric mass and density, influences the optical depth of the atmosphere. Under low pO2 and a reduced-density atmosphere, shortwave scattering by air molecules and clouds is less frequent, leading to a substantial increase in surface shortwave forcing. Through feedbacks involving latent heat fluxes to the atmosphere and marine stratus clouds, surface shortwave forcing drives increases in atmospheric water vapor and global precipitation, enhances greenhouse forcing, and raises global surface temperature. Our results implicate pO2 as an important factor in climate forcing throughout geologic time. Copyright © 2015, American Association for the Advancement of Science.

Chemical and climatic drivers of radiative forcing due to changes in stratospheric and tropospheric ozone over the 21st century

Science.gov (United States)

Banerjee, Antara; Maycock, Amanda C.; Pyle, John A.

2018-02-01

The ozone radiative forcings (RFs) resulting from projected changes in climate, ozone-depleting substances (ODSs), non-methane ozone precursor emissions and methane between the years 2000 and 2100 are calculated using simulations from the UM-UKCA chemistry-climate model (UK Met Office's Unified Model containing the United Kingdom Chemistry and Aerosols sub-model). Projected measures to improve air-quality through reductions in non-methane tropospheric ozone precursor emissions present a co-benefit for climate, with a net global mean ozone RF of -0.09 W m-2. This is opposed by a positive ozone RF of 0.05 W m-2 due to future decreases in ODSs, which is driven by an increase in tropospheric ozone through stratosphere-to-troposphere transport of air containing higher ozone amounts. An increase in methane abundance by more than a factor of 2 (as projected by the RCP8.5 scenario) is found to drive an ozone RF of 0.18 W m-2, which would greatly outweigh the climate benefits of non-methane tropospheric ozone precursor reductions. A small fraction (˜ 15 %) of the ozone RF due to the projected increase in methane results from increases in stratospheric ozone. The sign of the ozone RF due to future changes in climate (including the radiative effects of greenhouse gases, sea surface temperatures and sea ice changes) is shown to be dependent on the greenhouse gas emissions pathway, with a positive RF (0.05 W m-2) for RCP4.5 and a negative RF (-0.07 W m-2) for the RCP8.5 scenario. This dependence arises mainly from differences in the contribution to RF from stratospheric ozone changes. Considering the increases in tropopause height under climate change causes only small differences (≤ |0.02| W m-2) for the stratospheric, tropospheric and whole-atmosphere RFs.

A modeling study of effective radiative forcing and climate response due to increased methane concentration

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Bing Xie

2016-12-01

Full Text Available An atmospheric general circulation model BCC_AGCM2.0 and observation data from ARIS were used to calculate the effective radiative forcing (ERF due to increased methane concentration since pre-industrial times and its impacts on climate. The ERF of methane from 1750 to 2011 was 0.46 W m−2 by taking it as a well-mixed greenhouse gas, and the inhomogeneity of methane increased its ERF by about 0.02 W m−2. The change of methane concentration since pre-industrial led to an increase of 0.31 °C in global mean surface air temperature and 0.02 mm d−1 in global mean precipitation. The warming was prominent over the middle and high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere (with a maximum increase exceeding 1.4 °C. The precipitation notably increased (maximum increase of 1.8 mm d−1 over the ocean between 10°N and 20°N and significantly decreased (maximum decrease >–0.6 mm d−1 between 10°S and 10°N. These changes caused a northward movement of precipitation cell in the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ. Cloud cover significantly increased (by approximately 4% in the high latitudes in both hemispheres, and sharply decreased (by approximately 3% in tropical areas.

Climate response to projected changes in short-lived species under an A1B scenario from 2000-2050 in the GISS climate model

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Menon, Surabi; Shindell, Drew T.; Faluvegi, Greg; Bauer, Susanne E.; Koch, Dorothy M.; Unger, Nadine; Menon, Surabi; Miller, Ron L.; Schmidt, Gavin A.; Streets, David G.

2007-03-26

We investigate the climate forcing from and response to projected changes in short-lived species and methane under the A1B scenario from 2000-2050 in the GISS climate model. We present a meta-analysis of new simulations of the full evolution of gas and aerosol species and other existing experiments with variations of the same model. The comparison highlights the importance of several physical processes in determining radiative forcing, especially the effect of climate change on stratosphere-troposphere exchange, heterogeneous sulfate-nitrate-dust chemistry, and changes in methane oxidation and natural emissions. However, the impact of these fairly uncertain physical effects is substantially less than the difference between alternative emission scenarios for all short-lived species. The net global mean annual average direct radiative forcing from the short-lived species is .02 W/m{sup 2} or less in our projections, as substantial positive ozone forcing is largely offset by negative aerosol direct forcing. Since aerosol reductions also lead to a reduced indirect effect, the global mean surface temperature warms by {approx}0.07 C by 2030 and {approx}0.13 C by 2050, adding 19% and 17%, respectively, to the warming induced by long-lived greenhouse gases. Regional direct forcings are large, up to 3.8 W/m{sup 2}. The ensemble-mean climate response shows little regional correlation with the spatial pattern of the forcing, however, suggesting that oceanic and atmospheric mixing generally overwhelms the effect of even large localized forcings. Exceptions are the polar regions, where ozone and aerosols may induce substantial seasonal climate changes.

Impact of evolving greenhouse gas forcing on the warming signal in regional climate model experiments.

Science.gov (United States)

Jerez, S; López-Romero, J M; Turco, M; Jiménez-Guerrero, P; Vautard, R; Montávez, J P

2018-04-03

Variations in the atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases (GHG) may not be included as external forcing when running regional climate models (RCMs); at least, this is a non-regulated, non-documented practice. Here we investigate the so far unexplored impact of considering the rising evolution of the CO 2 , CH 4 , and N 2 O atmospheric concentrations on near-surface air temperature (TAS) trends, for both the recent past and the near future, as simulated by a state-of-the-art RCM over Europe. The results show that the TAS trends are significantly affected by 1-2 K century -1 , which under 1.5 °C global warming translates into a non-negligible impact of up to 1 K in the regional projections of TAS, similarly affecting projections for maximum and minimum temperatures. In some cases, these differences involve a doubling signal, laying further claim to careful reconsideration of the RCM setups with regard to the inclusion of GHG concentrations as an evolving external forcing which, for the sake of research reproducibility and reliability, should be clearly documented in the literature.

Climate Implications of the Heterogeneity of Anthropogenic Aerosol Forcing

Science.gov (United States)

Persad, Geeta Gayatri

Short-lived anthropogenic aerosols are concentrated in regions of high human activity, where they interact with radiation and clouds, causing horizontally heterogeneous radiative forcing between polluted and unpolluted regions. Aerosols can absorb shortwave energy in the atmosphere, but deplete it at the surface, producing opposite radiative perturbations between the surface and atmosphere. This thesis investigates climate and policy implications of this horizontal and vertical heterogeneity of anthropogenic aerosol forcing, employing the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory's AM2.1 and AM3 models, both at a global scale and using East Asia as a regional case study. The degree of difference between spatial patterns of climate change due to heterogeneous aerosol forcing versus homogeneous greenhouse gas forcing deeply impacts the detection, attribution, and prediction of regional climate change. This dissertation addresses a gap in current understanding of these two forcings' response pattern development, using AM2.1 historical forcing simulations. The results indicate that fast atmospheric and land-surface processes alone substantially homogenize the global pattern of surface energy flux response to heterogeneous aerosol forcing. Aerosols' vertical redistribution of energy significantly impacts regional climate, but is incompletely understood. It is newly identified here, via observations and historical and idealized forcing simulations, that increased aerosol-driven atmospheric absorption may explain half of East Asia's recent surface insolation decline. Further, aerosols' surface and atmospheric effects counteract each other regionally---atmospheric heating enhances summer monsoon circulation, while surface dimming suppresses it---but absorbing aerosols' combined effects reduce summer monsoon rainfall. This thesis constitutes the first vertical decomposition of aerosols' impacts in this high-emissions region and elucidates the monsoonal response to aerosols

Oxygen Non-Stoichiometry and Electrical Conductivity of La0.2Sr0.8Fe0.8B0.2O3 − δ, B = Fe, Ti, Ta

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Lohne, Ørjan Fossmark; Phung, Tan Nhut; Grande, Tor

2014-01-01

The oxygen non-stoichiometry was determined by coulometric titration for the perovskite oxides La0.2Sr0.8FeO3 − δ and La0.2Sr0.8Fe0.8B0.2O3 − δ (B = Ti4+ and Ta5+) in the temperature range 600 °C ⩽ T ⩽ 900 °C and the oxygen partial pressure range: 1⋅10-15≤po2≤0.209 atm. The non-stoichiometry (δ...... for the substituted materials. The electrical conductivity was measured at T = 900 °C in the oxygen partial pressure range: 1⋅10-17≤po2≤0.209 atm. The electrical conductivity and charge carrier mobility decrease upon 20% substitution of Fe roughly by a factor of 2, but do not show a significant dependence......) is observed to decrease with B-site substitution of Fe. The data can be well fitted with simple defect chemistry models. At low oxygen non-stoichiometry all compositions show a deviation from a localized electrons defect model. The standard and partial molar thermodynamic quantities were obtained...

Scenario dependence of future changes in climate extremes under 1.5 °C and 2 °C global warming.

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Zhili; Lin, Lei; Zhang, Xiaoye; Zhang, Hua; Liu, Liangke; Xu, Yangyang

2017-04-20

The 2015 Paris Agreement aims to limit global warming below 2 °C and pursue efforts to even limit it to 1.5 °C relative to pre-industrial levels. Decision makers need reliable information on the impacts caused by these warming levels for climate mitigation and adaptation measures. We explore the changes in climate extremes, which are closely tied to economic losses and casualties, under 1.5 °C and 2 °C global warming and their scenario dependence using three sets of ensemble global climate model simulations. A warming of 0.5 °C (from 1.5 °C to 2 °C) leads to significant increases in temperature and precipitation extremes in most regions. However, the projected changes in climate extremes under both warming levels highly depend on the pathways of emissions scenarios, with different greenhouse gas (GHG)/aerosol forcing ratio and GHG levels. Moreover, there are multifold differences in several heavily polluted regions, among the scenarios, in the changes in precipitation extremes due to an additional 0.5 °C warming from 1.5 °C to 2 °C. Our results demonstrate that the chemical compositions of emissions scenarios, not just the total radiative forcing and resultant warming level, must be considered when assessing the impacts of global 1.5/2 °C warming.

Implications for Climate Sensitivity from the Response to Individual Forcings

Science.gov (United States)

Marvel, Kate; Schmidt, Gavin A.; Miller, Ron L.; Nazarenko, Larissa

2015-01-01

Climate sensitivity to doubled CO2 is a widely-used metric of the large-scale response to external forcing. Climate models predict a wide range for two commonly used definitions: the transient climate response (TCR: the warming after 70 years of CO2 concentrations that riseat 1 per year), and the equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS: the equilibrium temperature change following a doubling of CO2 concentrations). Many observational datasets have been used to constrain these values, including temperature trends over the recent past 16, inferences from paleo-climate and process-based constraints from the modern satellite eras. However, as the IPCC recently reported different classes of observational constraints produce somewhat incongruent ranges. Here we show that climate sensitivity estimates derived from recent observations must account for the efficacy of each forcing active during the historical period. When we use single forcing experiments to estimate these efficacies and calculate climate sensitivity from the observed twentieth-century warming, our estimates of both TCR and ECS are revised upward compared to previous studies, improving the consistency with independent constraints.

Thermal physiology of native cool-climate, and non-native warm-climate Pumpkinseed sunfish raised in a common environment.

Science.gov (United States)

Rooke, Anna C; Burness, Gary; Fox, Michael G

2017-02-01

Contemporary evolution of thermal physiology has the potential to help limit the physiological stress associated with rapidly changing thermal environments; however it is unclear if wild populations can respond quickly enough for such changes to be effective. We used native Canadian Pumpkinseed (Lepomis gibbosus) sunfish, and non-native Pumpkinseed introduced into the milder climate of Spain ~100 years ago, to assess genetic differences in thermal physiology in response to the warmer non-native climate. We compared temperature performance reaction norms of two Canadian and two Spanish Pumpkinseed populations born and raised within a common environment. We found that Canadian Pumpkinseed had higher routine metabolic rates when measured at seasonally high temperatures (15°C in winter, 30°C in summer), and that Spanish Pumpkinseed had higher critical thermal maxima when acclimated to 30°C in the summer. Growth rates were not significantly different among populations, however Canadian Pumpkinseed tended to have faster growth at the warmest temperatures measured (32°C). The observed differences in physiology among Canadian and Spanish populations at the warmest acclimation temperatures are consistent with the introduced populations being better suited to the warmer non-native climate than native populations. The observed differences could be the result of either founder effects, genetic drift, and/or contemporary adaptive evolution in the warmer non-native climate. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Scenario dependence of future changes in climate extremes under 1.5 °C and 2 °C global warming

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Zhili; Lin, Lei; Zhang, Xiaoye; Zhang, Hua; Liu, Liangke; Xu, Yangyang

2017-01-01

The 2015 Paris Agreement aims to limit global warming below 2 °C and pursue efforts to even limit it to 1.5 °C relative to pre-industrial levels. Decision makers need reliable information on the impacts caused by these warming levels for climate mitigation and adaptation measures. We explore the changes in climate extremes, which are closely tied to economic losses and casualties, under 1.5 °C and 2 °C global warming and their scenario dependence using three sets of ensemble global climate model simulations. A warming of 0.5 °C (from 1.5 °C to 2 °C) leads to significant increases in temperature and precipitation extremes in most regions. However, the projected changes in climate extremes under both warming levels highly depend on the pathways of emissions scenarios, with different greenhouse gas (GHG)/aerosol forcing ratio and GHG levels. Moreover, there are multifold differences in several heavily polluted regions, among the scenarios, in the changes in precipitation extremes due to an additional 0.5 °C warming from 1.5 °C to 2 °C. Our results demonstrate that the chemical compositions of emissions scenarios, not just the total radiative forcing and resultant warming level, must be considered when assessing the impacts of global 1.5/2 °C warming. PMID:28425445

Chemical and climatic drivers of radiative forcing due to changes in stratospheric and tropospheric ozone over the 21st century

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

A. Banerjee

2018-02-01

Full Text Available The ozone radiative forcings (RFs resulting from projected changes in climate, ozone-depleting substances (ODSs, non-methane ozone precursor emissions and methane between the years 2000 and 2100 are calculated using simulations from the UM-UKCA chemistry–climate model (UK Met Office's Unified Model containing the United Kingdom Chemistry and Aerosols sub-model. Projected measures to improve air-quality through reductions in non-methane tropospheric ozone precursor emissions present a co-benefit for climate, with a net global mean ozone RF of −0.09 W m−2. This is opposed by a positive ozone RF of 0.05 W m−2 due to future decreases in ODSs, which is driven by an increase in tropospheric ozone through stratosphere-to-troposphere transport of air containing higher ozone amounts. An increase in methane abundance by more than a factor of 2 (as projected by the RCP8.5 scenario is found to drive an ozone RF of 0.18 W m−2, which would greatly outweigh the climate benefits of non-methane tropospheric ozone precursor reductions. A small fraction (∼ 15 % of the ozone RF due to the projected increase in methane results from increases in stratospheric ozone. The sign of the ozone RF due to future changes in climate (including the radiative effects of greenhouse gases, sea surface temperatures and sea ice changes is shown to be dependent on the greenhouse gas emissions pathway, with a positive RF (0.05 W m−2 for RCP4.5 and a negative RF (−0.07 W m−2 for the RCP8.5 scenario. This dependence arises mainly from differences in the contribution to RF from stratospheric ozone changes. Considering the increases in tropopause height under climate change causes only small differences (≤ |0.02| W m−2 for the stratospheric, tropospheric and whole-atmosphere RFs.

Coupling Satellite and Ground-Based Instruments to Map Climate Forcing by Anthropogenic Aerosols

Science.gov (United States)

Charlson, Robert J.; Anderson, Theodore L.; Hostetler, Chris (Technical Monitor)

2000-01-01

Climate forcing by anthropogenic aerosols is a significant but highly uncertain factor in global climate change. Only satellites can offer the global coverage essential to reducing this uncertainty; however, satellite measurements must be coupled with correlative, in situ measurements both to constrain the aerosol optical properties required in satellite retrieval algorithms and to provide chemical identification of aerosol sources. This grant funded the first two years of a three-year project which seeks to develop methodologies for combining spaceborne lidar with in-situ aerosol data sets to improve estimates of direct aerosol climate forcing. Progress under this two-year grant consisted in the development and deployment of a new in-situ capability for measuring aerosol 180' backscatter and the extinction-to-backscatter ratio. This new measurement capacity allows definitive lidar/in-situ comparisons and improves our ability to interpret lidar data in terms of climatically relevant quantities such as the extinction coefficient and optical depth. Measurements were made along the coast of Washington State, in Central Illinois, over the Indian Ocean, and in the Central Pacific. Thus, this research, combined with previous measurements by others, is rapidly building toward a global data set of extinction-to-backscatter ratio for key aerosol types. Such information will be critical to interpreting lidar data from the upcoming PICASSO-CENA, or P-C, satellite mission. Another aspect of this project is to investigate innovative ways to couple the lidar-satellite signal with targeted in-situ measurements toward a direct determination of aerosol forcing. This aspect is progressing in collaboration with NASA Langley's P-C lidar simulator and radiative transfer modeling by the University of Lille, France.

Impact of Dust Radiative Forcing upon Climate. Chapter 13

Science.gov (United States)

Miller, Ronald L.; Knippertz, Peter; Perez Garcia-Pando, Carlos; Perlwitz, Jan P.; Tegan, Ina

2014-01-01

Dust aerosols perturb the atmospheric radiative flux at both solar and thermal wavelengths, altering the energy and water cycles. The climate adjusts by redistributing energy and moisture, so that local temperature perturbations, for example, depend upon the forcing over the entire extent of the perturbed circulation. Within regions frequently mixed by deep convection, including the deep tropics, dust particles perturb the surface air temperature primarily through radiative forcing at the top of the atmosphere (TOA). Many models predict that dust reduces global precipitation. This reduction is typically attributed to the decrease of surface evaporation in response to dimming of the surface. A counterexample is presented, where greater shortwave absorption by dust increases evaporation and precipitation despite greater dimming of the surface. This is attributed to the dependence of surface evaporation upon TOA forcing through its influence upon surface temperature and humidity. Perturbations by dust to the surface wind speed and vegetation (through precipitation anomalies) feed back upon the dust aerosol concentration. The current uncertainty of radiative forcing attributed to dust and the resulting range of climate perturbations calculated by models remain a useful test of our understanding of the mechanisms relating dust radiative forcing to the climate response.

Influencias de las variaciones en el clima y en la concentración de C0(2 sobre el crecimiento de Nothofagus pumilio en la Patagonia Influences of climatic and C0(2 concentration changes on radial growth oí Nothofagus pumilio in Patagonia

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

ANA M SRUR

2008-06-01

variaciones de la disponibilidad hídrica en sitios mésicos.Influences of climate and C0(2 concentration variations during the last century on radial growth and water-use efficiency oí Nothofagus pumilio were evaluated along an altitudinal gradient in El Chaltén (49°22' S, Santa Cruz, Argentina. We used a combination of dendrochronological and isotopic techniques. Tree growth in the upper treeline shows a positive trend concurrent with increasing regional temperatures. In contrast, due to a gradual increase in water déficits, the rate of radial growth in the xeric forest-steppe ecotone has decreased in the past 100 years. Intermediate-elevation trees from mesic forests show a weak, non-significant negative trend in radial growth during the same interval. 6(13C reflects soil moisture variations with elevation and its differential influence on stomatal conductance and photosynthetic rate processes. In sites with reduced to severe water déficits, the intrinsic water-use efficiency (IWUE appears to be influenced by the amount of water in the soil. However, the relationship between IWUE and climate is more obvious in sites with reduced water stress. In drier sites, the photosynthetic rate is severely limited by water déficits so that the reduction in radial growth is not compensated by the increase in IWUE. In contrast with the traditional assumption in dendrochronology indicating that the strong relationships between radial growth and climate are recorded at the forest ecotones, the variations in 6(13C better reflect water déficits at intermedíate mesic forests.

Climate responses to SATIRE and SIM-based spectral solar forcing in a 3D atmosphere-ocean coupled GCM

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Wen Guoyong

2017-01-01

Full Text Available We apply two reconstructed spectral solar forcing scenarios, one SIM (Spectral Irradiance Monitor based, the other the SATIRE (Spectral And Total Irradiance REconstruction modeled, as inputs to the GISS (Goddard Institute for Space Studies GCMAM (Global Climate Middle Atmosphere Model to examine climate responses on decadal to centennial time scales, focusing on quantifying the difference of climate response between the two solar forcing scenarios. We run the GCMAM for about 400 years with present day trace gas and aerosol for the two solar forcing inputs. We find that the SIM-based solar forcing induces much larger long-term response and 11-year variation in global averaged stratospheric temperature and column ozone. We find significant decreasing trends of planetary albedo for both forcing scenarios in the 400-year model runs. However the mechanisms for the decrease are very different. For SATIRE solar forcing, the decreasing trend of planetary albedo is associated with changes in cloud cover. For SIM-based solar forcing, without significant change in cloud cover on centennial and longer time scales, the apparent decreasing trend of planetary albedo is mainly due to out-of-phase variation in shortwave radiative forcing proxy (downwelling flux for wavelength >330 nm and total solar irradiance (TSI. From the Maunder Minimum to present, global averaged annual mean surface air temperature has a response of ~0.1 °C to SATIRE solar forcing compared to ~0.04 °C to SIM-based solar forcing. For 11-year solar cycle, the global surface air temperature response has 3-year lagged response to either forcing scenario. The global surface air 11-year temperature response to SATIRE forcing is about 0.12 °C, similar to recent multi-model estimates, and comparable to the observational-based evidence. However, the global surface air temperature response to 11-year SIM-based solar forcing is insignificant and inconsistent with observation-based evidence.

Lessons on climate sensitivity from past climate changes

NARCIS (Netherlands)

von der Heydt, A.S.; Dijkstra, H.A.; van de Wal, R.S.W.; Caballero, R.; Crucifix, M.; Foster, G.L.; Huber, M.; Kohler, P.; Rohling, E.; Valdes, P.J.; Ashwin, P.; Bathiany, S.; Berends, T.; van Bree, L.G.J.; Ditlevsen, P.; Ghil, M.; Haywood, A.; Katzav, J.K.; Lohmann, G.; Lohmann, J.; Lucarini, V.; Marzocchi, A.; Palike, H.; Ruvalcaba Baroni, I.; Simon, D.; Sluijs, A.; Stap, L.B.; Tantet, A.; Viebahn, J.; Ziegler, M.

2016-01-01

Over the last decade, our understanding of climate sensitivity has improved considerably. The climate system shows variability on many timescales, is subject to non-stationary forcing and it is most likely out of equilibrium with the changes in the radiative forcing. Slow and fast feedbacks

Orbital Forcing driving climate variability on Tropical South Atlantic

Science.gov (United States)

Oliveira, A. S.; Baker, P. A.; Silva, C. G.; Dwyer, G. S.; Chiessi, C. M.; Rigsby, C. A.; Ferreira, F.

2017-12-01

Past research on climate response to orbital forcing in tropical South America has emphasized on high precession cycles influencing low latitude hydrologic cycles, and driving the meridional migration of Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ).However, marine proxy records from the tropical Pacific Ocean showed a strong 41-ka periodicities in Pleistocene seawater temperature and productivity related to fluctuations in Earth's obliquity. It Indicates that the western Pacific ITCZ migration was influenced by combined precession and obliquity changes. To reconstruct different climate regimes over the continent and understand the orbital cycle forcing over Tropical South America climate, hydrological reconstruction have been undertaken on sediment cores located on the Brazilian continental slope, representing the past 1.6 million years. Core CDH 79 site is located on a 2345 m deep seamount on the northern Brazilian continental slope (00° 39.6853' N, 44° 20.7723' W), 320 km from modern coastline of the Maranhão Gulf. High-resolution XRF analyses of Fe, Ti, K and Ca are used to define the changes in precipitation and sedimentary input history of Tropical South America. The response of the hydrology cycle to orbital forcing was studied using spectral analysis.The 1600 ka records of dry/wet conditions presented here indicates that orbital time-scale climate change has been a dominant feature of tropical climate. We conclude that the observed oscillation reflects variability in the ITCZ activity associated with the Earth's tilt. The prevalence of the eccentricity and obliquity signals in continental hydrology proxies (Ti/Ca and Fe/K) as implicated in our precipitation records, highlights that these orbital forcings play an important role in tropics hydrologic cycles. Throughout the Quaternary abrupt shifts of tropical variability are temporally correlated with abrupt climate changes and atmospheric reorganization during Mid-Pleistocene Transition and Mid-Brunhes Events

Towards the detection and attribution of an anthropogenic effect on climate

Science.gov (United States)

Santer, Benjamin D.; Taylor, Karl E.; Wigley, Tom M. L.; Penner, Joyce E.; Jones, Philip D.; Cubasch, Ulrich

1995-12-01

It has been hypothesized recently that regional-scale cooling caused by anthropogenic sulfate aerosols may be partially obscuring a warming signal associated with changes in greenhouse gas concentrations. Here we use results from model experiments in which sulfate and carbon dioxide have been varied individually and in combination in order to test this hypothesis. We use centered [ R(t)] and uncentered [ C(t)] pattern similarity statistics to compare observed time-evolving surface temperature change patterns with the model-predicted equilibrium signal patterns. We show that in most cases, the C(t) statistic reduces to a measure of observed global-mean temperature changes, and is of limited use in attributing observed climate changes to a specific causal mechanism. We therefore focus on R(t), which is a more useful statistic for discriminating between forcing mechanisms with different pattern signatures but similar rates of global mean change. Our results indicate that over the last 50 years, the summer (JJA) and fall (SON) observed patterns of near-surface temperature change show increasing similarity to the model-simulated response to combined sulfate aerosol/CO2 forcing. At least some of this increasing spatial congruence occurs in areas where the real world has cooled. To assess the significance of the most recent trends in R(t) and C(t), we use data from multi-century control integrations performed with two different coupled atmosphere-ocean models, which provide information on the statistical behavior of ‘unforced’ trends in the pattern correlation statistics. For the combined sulfate aerosol/CO2 experiment, the 50-year R(t) trends for the JJA and SON signals are highly significant. Results are robust in that they do not depend on the choice of control run used to estimate natural variability noise properties. The R(t) trends for the C02-only signal are not significant in any season. C(t) trends for signals from both the C02-only and combined forcing

Relevance of land forcings and feedbacks in the attribution of climate extremes

Science.gov (United States)

Seneviratne, S. I.; Davin, E.; Greve, P.; Gudmundsson, L.; Hauser, M.; Hirschi, M.; Mueller, B.; Orlowsky, B.; Orth, R.

2014-12-01

Land forcings and feedbacks play an important role in the climate system, in particular for the occurrence of climate extremes. Recent investigations have for instance highlighted the impacts of soil moisture-climate interactions for the development of droughts and heat waves (e.g. Seneviratne et al. 2012, Mueller and Seneviratne 2012, Seneviratne et al. 2013, Orlowsky and Seneviratne 2013). In addition, forcing from land use and land cover changes through modified albedo or turbulent fluxes can also affect the temperature variability in summer (Davin et al. 2014). These effects are important for better understanding the relationships between climate forcing and regional climate changes, and appear relevant for a recent discrepancy between trends in global mean temperature vs hot extremes over land (Seneviratne et al. 2014). This presentation will provide an overview on the underlying processes and on possible approaches for their consideration in attribution research. References:- Davin, E.L., S.I. Seneviratne, P. Ciais, A. Olioso, T. Wang, 2014: Preferential cooling of hot extremes from cropland albedo management. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci., Published ahead of print June 23, 2014.- Mueller, B., and S.I. Seneviratne, 2012: Hot days induced by precipitation deficits at the global scale. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 109 (31), 12398-12403, doi: 10.1073/pnas.1204330109.- Orlowsky, B., and S.I. Seneviratne, 2013: Elusive drought: Uncertainty in observed trends and short- and long-term CMIP5 projections. Hydr. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 1765-1781, doi:10.5194/hess-17-1765-2013- Seneviratne, S.I., N. Nicholls, et al., 2012: Changes in climate extremes and their impacts on the natural physical environment. In: Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation [Field, C.B., et al. (eds.)]. A Special Report of Working Groups I and II of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, pp. 109-230.- Seneviratne, S.I., et al

Water restriction and heat effects on thyroid activity in ad libitium and force-fed cattle exposed to 180C and 320C

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kamal, T.H.; Johnson, H.D.

1976-01-01

Seven non-lactating Holstein cows were maintained in a climatic laboratory for two weeks at 18 0 C and 50% relative humidity, followed by two weeks at 32 0 C and 50% relative humidity. Water was provided ad libitum in the first week and restricted 50% of the ad libitum level in the second week. Thyroid activity, determined by the 125 I-triiodothyronine uptake with coated charcoal, decreased 10.9% (P 0 C. Water restriction at 32 0 C did not depress thyroid activity because environmental heat had already decreased thyroid activity to a low level. High ambient temperature depressed thyroid activity 14.7% in ad libitum cows (P<0.01) and a further 1.8% in water-restricted cows. Similar effects of water restriction and heat were obtained when the same experiment was repeated on four non-lactating rumen-fistulated cows, in which the refused feed during the water restriction periods was put into the rumen to maintain the feed levels for each temperature exposure. This indicated that forced feeding did not prevent the adverse effect of water restriction or heat on thyroid activity. (author)

The climatic out of control. the climatic forcing; L'emballement climatique. Le forcage climatique

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Bony-Lena, S.; Dufresne, J.L. [Laboratoire de Meteorologie Dynamique, LMD/IPSL, CNRS-UPMC, 75 - Paris (France); Acot, P. [Institut d' histoire et de philosophie des sciences et des techniques (IHPST), CNRS-Univ. Paris-1-ENS, 75 - Paris (France); Friedlingstein, P. [CEA Saclay, Lab. des Sciences du Climat et l' Environnement (LSCE), 91 - Gif-sur-Yvette (France); Berger, A.; Loutre, M.L. [Universite Catholique de Louvain (UCL), Louvain-la-Neuve (Belgium). Inst. d' Astronomie et de Geophysique G. Lemaitre; Jouzel, J. [Institut Pierre Simon Laplace, 75 - Paris (France); Raynaud, D. [Laboratoire de Glaciologie et Geophysique de l' Environnement (UMR 5183), 38 - Saint Martin d' Heres cedex (France); Thuiller, W. [Universite Joseph-Fourier, Lab. d' Ecologie Alpine, CNRS-Univ. Grenoble-1, 38 (France); Le Treut, H. [Laboratoire de Meteorologie dynamique du CNRS, 75 - Paris (France); Houssais, M.N. [Laboratoire d' Oceanographie et du Climat Experimentation et Approches Numerique (LOCEAN / IPSL), 75 - Paris (France); Duplessy, J.C. [Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l' Environnement (LSCE), 91 - Gif sur Yvette (France); Royer, J.F.; Douville, H. [Centre National de Recherches Meteorologiques, 31 - Toulouse (France); Barberousse, A. [Institut d' Histoire et de Philosophie des Sciences et des Techniques, CNRS, ENS, 75 - Paris (France); Quinon, P

2007-03-15

The expert group on the climate evolution affirms that the global warming is unequivocal and that the human being is the main responsible. This document broaches the climatic change under many aspects: the principle, the historical aspect of the greenhouse effect, the GIEC, the carbon cycle, the paleo-climate theory, the antarctic ices and the impacts of the climatic change on the biodiversity, the simulations and the models, the climatic indicators and the climatic forcing by human activities. (A.L.B.)

Climate forcing growth rates: doubling down on our Faustian bargain

Science.gov (United States)

Hansen, James; Kharecha, Pushker; Sato, Makiko

2013-03-01

vapor. The Alternative Scenario, defined in detail by Hansen and Sato (2004), keeps maximum global warming at ~1.5 °C relative to 1880-1920, under the assumption that fast-feedback climate sensitivity is ~3 °C for doubled CO2 (Hansen et al 2007). The Alternative Scenario allows CO2 to reach 475 ppm in 2100 before declining slowly; this scenario assumes that reductions of non-CO2 greenhouse gases and black carbon aerosols can be achieved sufficient to balance the warming effect of likely future decreases of reflective aerosols. Figure 4. Figure 4. Observed atmospheric CH4 amount and scenarios for twenty first century. Alternative scenario (Hansen et al 2000, Hansen and Sato 2004) yields maximum global warming ~1.5 °C above 1880-1920. Other scenarios are from IPCC (2001). Forcing on right hand scale is adjusted forcing, Fa, relative to values in 2000 (Hansen et al 2007). There are anthropogenic sources of CH4 that potentially could be reduced, indeed, the leveling off of CH4 amount during the past 20 years seems to have been caused by decreased venting in oil fields (Simpson et al 2012), but the feasibility of overall CH4 reduction also depends on limiting global warming itself, because of the potential for amplifying climate-CH4 feedbacks (Archer et al 2009, Koven et al 2011). Furthermore, reduction of atmospheric CH4 might become problematic if unconventional mining of gas, such as 'hydro-fracking', expands widely (Cipolla 2009), as discussed further below. The growth rate for the total climate forcing by well-mixed greenhouse gases has remained below the peak values reached in the 1970s and early 1980s, has been relatively stable for about 20 years, and is falling below IPCC (2001) scenarios (figure 5). However, the greenhouse gas forcing is growing faster than in the Alternative Scenario. MPTGs and OTGs in figure 5 are Montreal Protocol Trace Gases and Other Trace Gases (Hansen and Sato 2004). Figure 5. Figure 5. Five-year mean of the growth rate of climate forcing

20th-century industrial black carbon emissions altered Arctic climate forcing.

Science.gov (United States)

McConnell, Joseph R; Edwards, Ross; Kok, Gregory L; Flanner, Mark G; Zender, Charles S; Saltzman, Eric S; Banta, J Ryan; Pasteris, Daniel R; Carter, Megan M; Kahl, Jonathan D W

2007-09-07

Black carbon (BC) from biomass and fossil fuel combustion alters chemical and physical properties of the atmosphere and snow albedo, yet little is known about its emission or deposition histories. Measurements of BC, vanillic acid, and non-sea-salt sulfur in ice cores indicate that sources and concentrations of BC in Greenland precipitation varied greatly since 1788 as a result of boreal forest fires and industrial activities. Beginning about 1850, industrial emissions resulted in a sevenfold increase in ice-core BC concentrations, with most change occurring in winter. BC concentrations after about 1951 were lower but increasing. At its maximum from 1906 to 1910, estimated surface climate forcing in early summer from BC in Arctic snow was about 3 watts per square meter, which is eight times the typical preindustrial forcing value.

Climate and carbon-cycle response to astronomical forcing over the last 35 Ma.

Science.gov (United States)

De Vleeschouwer, D.; Palike, H.; Vahlenkamp, M.; Crucifix, M.

2017-12-01

On a million-year time scale, the characteristics of insolation forcing caused by cyclical variations in the astronomical parameters of the Earth remain stable. Nevertheless, Earth's climate responded very differently to this forcing during different parts of the Cenozoic. The recently-published ∂18Obenthic megasplice (De Vleeschouwer et al., 2017) allowed for a clear visualization of these changes in global climate response to astronomical forcing. However, many open questions remain regarding how carbon-cycle dynamics influence Earth's climate sensitivity to astronomical climate forcing. To provide insight into the interaction between the carbon cycle and astronomical insolation forcing, we built a benthic carbon isotope (∂13Cbenthic) megasplice for the last 35 Ma, employing the same technique used to build the ∂18Obenthic megasplice. The ∂13Cbenthic megasplice exhibits a strong imprint of the 405 and 100-kyr eccentricity cycles throughout the last 35 Ma. This is intriguing, as the oxygen isotope megasplice looses its eccentricity imprint after the mid-Miocene climatic transition (MMCT; see Fig. 1 in De Vleeschouwer et al., 2017). In other words, the carbon cycle responded completely differently to astronomical forcing, compared to global climate during the late Miocene. We visualize this difference in response by the application of a Gaussian process, which renders the dependence of one variable (here ∂18Obenthic or ∂13Cbenthic) in a multidimensional space (here precession, obliquity and eccentricity). Together, the ∂13Cbenthic and ∂18Obenthic megasplices thus provide a unique tool for paleoclimatology, allowing for the quantification and visualization of the changing paleoclimate and carbon-cycle response to astronomical forcing throughout geologic time. References De Vleeschouwer, D., Vahlenkamp, M., Crucifix, M., Pälike, H., 2017. Alternating Southern and Northern Hemisphere climate response to astronomical forcing during the past 35 m

Crop productivity changes in 1.5 °C and 2 °C worlds under climate sensitivity uncertainty

Science.gov (United States)

Schleussner, Carl-Friedrich; Deryng, Delphine; Müller, Christoph; Elliott, Joshua; Saeed, Fahad; Folberth, Christian; Liu, Wenfeng; Wang, Xuhui; Pugh, Thomas A. M.; Thiery, Wim; Seneviratne, Sonia I.; Rogelj, Joeri

2018-06-01

Following the adoption of the Paris Agreement, there has been an increasing interest in quantifying impacts at discrete levels of global mean temperature (GMT) increase such as 1.5 °C and 2 °C above pre-industrial levels. Consequences of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions on agricultural productivity have direct and immediate relevance for human societies. Future crop yields will be affected by anthropogenic climate change as well as direct effects of emissions such as CO2 fertilization. At the same time, the climate sensitivity to future emissions is uncertain. Here we investigate the sensitivity of future crop yield projections with a set of global gridded crop models for four major staple crops at 1.5 °C and 2 °C warming above pre-industrial levels, as well as at different CO2 levels determined by similar probabilities to lead to 1.5 °C and 2 °C, using climate forcing data from the Half a degree Additional warming, Prognosis and Projected Impacts project. For the same CO2 forcing, we find consistent negative effects of half a degree warming on productivity in most world regions. Increasing CO2 concentrations consistent with these warming levels have potentially stronger but highly uncertain effects than 0.5 °C warming increments. Half a degree warming will also lead to more extreme low yields, in particular over tropical regions. Our results indicate that GMT change alone is insufficient to determine future impacts on crop productivity.

Stratospheric sulfur and its implications for radiative forcing simulated by the chemistry climate model EMAC.

Science.gov (United States)

Brühl, C; Lelieveld, J; Tost, H; Höpfner, M; Glatthor, N

2015-03-16

Multiyear simulations with the atmospheric chemistry general circulation model EMAC with a microphysical modal aerosol module at high vertical resolution demonstrate that the sulfur gases COS and SO 2 , the latter from low-latitude and midlatitude volcanic eruptions, predominantly control the formation of stratospheric aerosol. Marine dimethyl sulfide (DMS) and other SO 2 sources, including strong anthropogenic emissions in China, are found to play a minor role except in the lowermost stratosphere. Estimates of volcanic SO 2 emissions are based on satellite observations using Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer and Ozone Monitoring Instrument for total injected mass and Michelson Interferometer for Passive Atmospheric Sounding (MIPAS) on Envisat or Stratospheric Aerosol and Gases Experiment for the spatial distribution. The 10 year SO 2 and COS data set of MIPAS is also used for model evaluation. The calculated radiative forcing of stratospheric background aerosol including sulfate from COS and small contributions by DMS oxidation, and organic aerosol from biomass burning, is about 0.07W/m 2 . For stratospheric sulfate aerosol from medium and small volcanic eruptions between 2005 and 2011 a global radiative forcing up to 0.2W/m 2 is calculated, moderating climate warming, while for the major Pinatubo eruption the simulated forcing reaches 5W/m 2 , leading to temporary climate cooling. The Pinatubo simulation demonstrates the importance of radiative feedback on dynamics, e.g., enhanced tropical upwelling, for large volcanic eruptions.

Climate forcing and desert malaria: the effect of irrigation.

Science.gov (United States)

Baeza, Andres; Bouma, Menno J; Dobson, Andy P; Dhiman, Ramesh; Srivastava, Harish C; Pascual, Mercedes

2011-07-14

Rainfall variability and associated remote sensing indices for vegetation are central to the development of early warning systems for epidemic malaria in arid regions. The considerable change in land-use practices resulting from increasing irrigation in recent decades raises important questions on concomitant change in malaria dynamics and its coupling to climate forcing. Here, the consequences of irrigation level for malaria epidemics are addressed with extensive time series data for confirmed Plasmodium falciparum monthly cases, spanning over two decades for five districts in north-west India. The work specifically focuses on the response of malaria epidemics to rainfall forcing and how this response is affected by increasing irrigation. Remote sensing data for the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) are used as an integrated measure of rainfall to examine correlation maps within the districts and at regional scales. The analyses specifically address whether irrigation has decreased the coupling between malaria incidence and climate variability, and whether this reflects (1) a breakdown of NDVI as a useful indicator of risk, (2) a weakening of rainfall forcing and a concomitant decrease in epidemic risk, or (3) an increase in the control of malaria transmission. The predictive power of NDVI is compared against that of rainfall, using simple linear models and wavelet analysis to study the association of NDVI and malaria variability in the time and in the frequency domain respectively. The results show that irrigation dampens the influence of climate forcing on the magnitude and frequency of malaria epidemics and, therefore, reduces their predictability. At low irrigation levels, this decoupling reflects a breakdown of local but not regional NDVI as an indicator of rainfall forcing. At higher levels of irrigation, the weakened role of climate variability may be compounded by increased levels of control; nevertheless this leads to no significant decrease

A piecewise-integration method for simulating the influence of external forcing on climate

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

Zhifu Zhang; Chongjian Qiu; Chenghai Wang

2008-01-01

Climate drift occurs in most general circulation models (GCMs) as a result of incomplete physical and numerical representation of the complex climate system,which may cause large uncertainty in sensitivity experiments evaluating climate response to changes in external forcing.To solve this problem,we propose a piecewise-integration method to reduce the systematic error in climate sensitivity studies.The observations are firstly assimilated into a numerical model by using the dynamic relaxation technique to relax to the current state of atmosphere,and then the assimilated fields are continuously used to reinitialize the simulation to reduce the error of climate simulation.When the numerical model is integrated with changed external forcing,the results can be split into two parts,background and perturbation fields,and the background is the state before the external forcing is changed.The piecewise-integration method is used to continuously reinitialize the model with the assimilated field,instead of the background.Therefore,the simulation error of the model with the external forcing can be reduced.In this way,the accuracy of climate sensitivity experiments is greatly improved.Tests with a simple low-order spectral model show that this approach can significantly reduce the uncertainty of climate sensitivity experiments.

Do responses to different anthropogenic forcings add linearly in climate models?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Marvel, Kate; Schmidt, Gavin A; LeGrande, Allegra N; Nazarenko, Larissa; Shindell, Drew; Bonfils, Céline; Tsigaridis, Kostas

2015-01-01

Many detection and attribution and pattern scaling studies assume that the global climate response to multiple forcings is additive: that the response over the historical period is statistically indistinguishable from the sum of the responses to individual forcings. Here, we use the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) and National Center for Atmospheric Research Community Climate System Model (CCSM4) simulations from the CMIP5 archive to test this assumption for multi-year trends in global-average, annual-average temperature and precipitation at multiple timescales. We find that responses in models forced by pre-computed aerosol and ozone concentrations are generally additive across forcings. However, we demonstrate that there are significant nonlinearities in precipitation responses to different forcings in a configuration of the GISS model that interactively computes these concentrations from precursor emissions. We attribute these to differences in ozone forcing arising from interactions between forcing agents. Our results suggest that attribution to specific forcings may be complicated in a model with fully interactive chemistry and may provide motivation for other modeling groups to conduct further single-forcing experiments. (letter)

Drivers of 2016 record Arctic warmth assessed using climate simulations subjected to Factual and Counterfactual forcing

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Lantao Sun

2018-03-01

Full Text Available A suite of historical atmospheric model simulations is described that uses a hierarchy of global boundary forcings designed to inform research on the detection and attribution of weather and climate-related extremes. In addition to experiments forced by actual variations in sea surface temperature, sea ice concentration, and atmospheric chemical composition (so-called Factual experiments; additional (Counterfactual experiments are conducted in which the boundary forcings are adjusted by removing estimates of long-term climate change. A third suite of experiments are identical to the Factual runs except that sea ice concentrations are set to climatological conditions (Clim-Polar experiments. These were used to investigate the cause for extremely warm Arctic surface temperature during 2016.Much of the magnitude of surface temperature anomalies averaged poleward of 65°N in 2016 (3.2 ± 0.6 °C above a 1980–89 reference is shown to have been forced by observed global boundary conditions. The Factual experiments reveal that at least three quarters of the magnitude of 2016 annual mean Arctic warmth was forced, with considerable sensitivity to assumptions of sea ice thickness change. Results also indicate that 30–40% of the overall forced Arctic warming signal in 2016 originated from drivers outside of the Arctic. Despite such remote effects, the experiments reveal that the extreme magnitude of the 2016 Arctic warmth could not have occurred without consideration of the Arctic sea ice loss. We find a near-zero probability for Arctic surface temperature to be as warm as occurred in 2016 under late-19th century boundary conditions, and also under 2016 boundary conditions that do not include the depleted Arctic sea ice. Results from the atmospheric model experiments are reconciled with coupled climate model simulations which lead to a conclusion that about 60% of the 2016 Arctic warmth was likely attributable to human-induced climate change

Permafrost degradation and methane: low risk of biogeochemical climate-warming feedback

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gao Xiang; Adam Schlosser, C; Sokolov, Andrei; Anthony, Katey Walter; Zhuang Qianlai; Kicklighter, David

2013-01-01

Climate change and permafrost thaw have been suggested to increase high latitude methane emissions that could potentially represent a strong feedback to the climate system. Using an integrated earth-system model framework, we examine the degradation of near-surface permafrost, temporal dynamics of inundation (lakes and wetlands) induced by hydro-climatic change, subsequent methane emission, and potential climate feedback. We find that increases in atmospheric CH 4 and its radiative forcing, which result from the thawed, inundated emission sources, are small, particularly when weighed against human emissions. The additional warming, across the range of climate policy and uncertainties in the climate-system response, would be no greater than 0.1 ° C by 2100. Further, for this temperature feedback to be doubled (to approximately 0.2 ° C) by 2100, at least a 25-fold increase in the methane emission that results from the estimated permafrost degradation would be required. Overall, this biogeochemical global climate-warming feedback is relatively small whether or not humans choose to constrain global emissions. (letter)

Climate and Non-Climate Drivers of Dengue Epidemics in Southern Coastal Ecuador

Science.gov (United States)

Stewart-Ibarra, Anna M.; Lowe, Rachel

2013-01-01

We report a statistical mixed model for assessing the importance of climate and non-climate drivers of interannual variability in dengue fever in southern coastal Ecuador. Local climate data and Pacific sea surface temperatures (Oceanic Niño Index [ONI]) were used to predict dengue standardized morbidity ratios (SMRs; 1995–2010). Unobserved confounding factors were accounted for using non-structured yearly random effects. We found that ONI, rainfall, and minimum temperature were positively associated with dengue, with more cases of dengue during El Niño events. We assessed the influence of non-climatic factors on dengue SMR using a subset of data (2001–2010) and found that the percent of households with Aedes aegypti immatures was also a significant predictor. Our results indicate that monitoring the climate and non-climate drivers identified in this study could provide some predictive lead for forecasting dengue epidemics, showing the potential to develop a dengue early-warning system in this region. PMID:23478584

Climatic Effects of 1950-2050 Changes in US Anthropogenic Aerosols. Part 1; Aerosol Trends and Radiative Forcing

Science.gov (United States)

Leibensperger, E. M.; Mickley, L. J.; Jacob, D. J.; Chen, W.-T.; Seinfeld, J. H.; Nenes, A.; Adams, P. J.; Streets, D. G.; Kumar, N.; Rind, D.

2012-01-01

We calculate decadal aerosol direct and indirect (warm cloud) radiative forcings from US anthropogenic sources over the 1950-2050 period. Past and future aerosol distributions are constructed using GEOS-Chem and historical emission inventories and future projections from the IPCC A1B scenario. Aerosol simulations are evaluated with observed spatial distributions and 1980-2010 trends of aerosol concentrations and wet deposition in the contiguous US. Direct and indirect radiative forcing is calculated using the GISS general circulation model and monthly mean aerosol distributions from GEOS-Chem. The radiative forcing from US anthropogenic aerosols is strongly localized over the eastern US. We find that its magnitude peaked in 1970-1990, with values over the eastern US (east of 100 deg W) of -2.0Wm(exp-2 for direct forcing including contributions from sulfate (-2.0Wm-2), nitrate (-0.2Wm(exp-2), organic carbon (-0.2Wm(exp-2), and black carbon (+0.4Wm(exp-2). The uncertainties in radiative forcing due to aerosol radiative properties are estimated to be about 50 %. The aerosol indirect effect is estimated to be of comparable magnitude to the direct forcing. We find that the magnitude of the forcing declined sharply from 1990 to 2010 (by 0.8Wm(exp-2) direct and 1.0Wm(exp-2 indirect), mainly reflecting decreases in SO2 emissions, and project that it will continue declining post-2010 but at a much slower rate since US SO2 emissions have already declined by almost 60% from their peak. This suggests that much of the warming effect of reducing US anthropogenic aerosol sources has already been realized. The small positive radiative forcing from US BC emissions (+0.3Wm(exp-2 over the eastern US in 2010; 5% of the global forcing from anthropogenic BC emissions worldwide) suggests that a US emission control strategy focused on BC would have only limited climate benefit.

Theory and computation of general force balance in non-axisymmetric tokamak equilibria

Science.gov (United States)

Park, Jong-Kyu; Logan, Nikolas; Wang, Zhirui; Kim, Kimin; Boozer, Allen; Liu, Yueqiang; Menard, Jonathan

2014-10-01

Non-axisymmetric equilibria in tokamaks can be effectively described by linearized force balance. In addition to the conventional isotropic pressure force, there are three important components that can strongly contribute to the force balance; rotational, anisotropic tensor pressure, and externally given forces, i.e. ∇ --> p + ρv-> . ∇ --> v-> + ∇ --> . Π + f-> = j-> × B-> , especially in, but not limited to, high β and rotating plasmas. Within the assumption of nested flux surfaces, Maxwell equations and energy minimization lead to the modified-generalized Newcomb equation for radial displacements with simple algebraic relations for perpendicular and parallel displacements, including an inhomogeneous term if any of the forces are not explicitly dependent on displacements. The general perturbed equilibrium code (GPEC) solves this force balance consistent with energy and torque given by external perturbations. Local and global behaviors of solutions will be discussed when ∇ --> . Π is solved by the semi-analytic code PENT and will be compared with MARS-K. Any first-principle transport code calculating ∇ --> . Π or f-> , e.g. POCA, can also be incorporated without demanding iterations. This work was supported by DOE Contract DE-AC02-09CH11466.

Two-photon widths of the chi(c0,2) states and helicity analysis for chi(c2) -> gamma gamma

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Ablikim, M.; Achasov, M. N.; Ambrose, D. J.; An, F. F.; An, Q.; An, Z. H.; Bai, J. Z.; Ban, Y.; Becker, J.; Berger, N.; Bertani, M.; Bian, J. M.; Boger, E.; Bondarenko, O.; Boyko, I.; Briere, R. A.; Bytev, V.; Cai, X.; Calcaterra, A.; Cao, G. F.; Chang, J. F.; Chelkov, G.; Chen, G.; Chen, H. S.; Chen, J. C.; Chen, M. L.; Chen, S. J.; Chen, Y.; Chen, Y. B.; Cheng, H. P.; Chu, Y. P.; Cronin-Hennessy, D.; Dai, H. L.; Dai, J. P.; Dedovich, D.; Deng, Z. Y.; Denig, A.; Denysenko, I.; Destefanis, M.; Ding, W. M.; Ding, Y.; Dong, L. Y.; Dong, M. Y.; Du, S. X.; Fang, J.; Fang, S. S.; Fava, L.; Feldbauer, F.; Feng, C. Q.; Ferroli, R. B.; Fu, C. D.; Fu, J. L.; Gao, Y.; Geng, C.; Goetzen, K.; Gong, W. X.; Gradl, W.; Greco, M.; Gu, M. H.; Gu, Y. T.; Guan, Y. H.; Guo, A. Q.; Guo, L. B.; Guo, Y. P.; Han, Y. L.; Hao, X. Q.; Harris, F. A.; He, K. L.; He, M.; He, Z. Y.; Held, T.; Heng, Y. K.; Hou, Z. L.; Hu, H. M.; Hu, J. F.; Hu, T.; Huang, B.; Huang, G. M.; Huang, J. S.; Huang, X. T.; Huang, Y. P.; Hussain, T.; Ji, C. S.; Ji, Q.; Ji, X. B.; Ji, X. L.; Jia, L. K.; Jiang, L. L.; Jiang, X. S.; Jiao, J. B.; Jiao, Z.; Jin, D. P.; Jin, S.; Jing, F. F.; Kalantar-Nayestanaki, N.; Kavatsyuk, M.; Kuehn, W.; Lai, W.; Lange, J. S.; Leung, J. K. C.; Li, C. H.; Li, Cheng; Li, Cui; Li, D. M.; Li, F.; Li, G.; Li, H. B.; Li, J. C.; Li, K.; Li, Lei; Li, N. B.; Li, Q. J.; Li, S. L.; Li, W. D.; Li, W. G.; Li, X. L.; Li, X. N.; Li, X. Q.; Li, X. R.; Li, Z. B.; Liang, H.; Liang, Y. F.; Liang, Y. T.; Liao, G. R.; Liao, X. T.; Liu, B. J.; Liu, B. J.; Liu, C. L.; Liu, C. X.; Liu, C. Y.; Liu, F. H.; Liu, Fang; Liu, Feng; Liu, H.; Liu, H. B.; Liu, H. H.; Liu, H. M.; Liu, H. W.; Liu, J. P.; Liu, K. Y.; Liu, Kai; Liu, Kun; Liu, P. L.; Liu, S. B.; Liu, X.; Liu, X. H.; Liu, Y.; Liu, Y. B.; Liu, Z. A.; Liu, Zhiqiang; Liu, Zhiqing; Loehner, H.; Lu, G. R.; Lu, H. J.; Lu, J. G.; Lu, Q. W.; Lu, X. R.; Lu, Y. P.; Luo, C. L.; Luo, M. X.; Luo, T.; Luo, X. L.; Lv, M.; Ma, C. L.; Ma, F. C.; Ma, H. L.; Ma, Q. M.; Ma, S.; Ma, T.; Ma, X. Y.; Ma, Y.; Maas, F. E.; Maggiora, M.; Malik, Q. A.; Mao, H.; Mao, Y. J.; Mao, Z. P.; Messchendorp, J. G.; Min, J.; Min, T. J.; Mitchell, R. E.; Mo, X. H.; Morales, C. Morales; Motzko, C.; Muchnoi, N. Yu.; Nefedov, Y.; Nicholson, C.; Nikolaev, I. B.; Ning, Z.; Olsen, S. L.; Ouyang, Q.; Pacetti, S.; Park, J. W.; Pelizaeus, M.; Peters, K.; Ping, J. L.; Ping, R. G.; Poling, R.; Prencipe, E.; Pun, C. S. J.; Qi, M.; Qian, S.; Qiao, C. F.; Qin, X. S.; Qin, Y.; Qin, Z. H.; Qiu, J. F.; Rashid, K. H.; Rong, G.; Ruan, X. D.; Sarantsev, A.; Schulze, J.; Shao, M.; Shen, C. P.; Shen, X. Y.; Sheng, H. Y.; Shepherd, M. R.; Song, X. Y.; Spataro, S.; Spruck, B.; Sun, D. H.; Sun, G. X.; Sun, J. F.; Sun, S. S.; Sun, X. D.; Sun, Y. J.; Sun, Y. Z.; Sun, Z. J.; Sun, Z. T.; Tang, C. J.; Tang, X.; Thorndike, E. H.; Tian, H. L.; Toth, D.; Ullrich, M.; Varner, G. S.; Wang, B.; Wang, B. Q.; Wang, K.; Wang, L. L.; Wang, L. S.; Wang, M.; Wang, P.; Wang, P. L.; Wang, Q.; Wang, Q. J.; Wang, S. G.; Wang, X. F.; Wang, X. L.; Wang, Y. D.; Wang, Y. F.; Wang, Y. Q.; Wang, Z.; Wang, Z. G.; Wang, Z. Y.; Wei, D. H.; Weidenkaff, P.; Wen, Q. G.; Wen, S. P.; Werner, M.; Wiedner, U.; Wu, L. H.; Wu, N.; Wu, S. X.; Wu, W.; Wu, Z.; Xia, L. G.; Xiao, Z. J.; Xie, Y. G.; Xiu, Q. L.; Xu, G. F.; Xu, G. M.; Xu, H.; Xu, Q. J.; Xu, X. P.; Xu, Y.; Xu, Z. R.; Xue, F.; Xue, Z.; Yan, L.; Yan, W. B.; Yang, H. X.; Yang, T.; Yang, Y.; Yang, Y. X.; Ye, H.; Ye, M.; Ye, M. H.; Yu, B. X.; Yu, C. X.; Yu, J. S.; Yu, S. P.; Yuan, C. Z.; Yuan, W. L.; Yuan, Y.; Zafar, A. A.; Zallo, A.; Zeng, Y.; Zhang, B. X.; Zhang, B. Y.; Zhang, C. C.; Zhang, D. H.; Zhang, H. H.; Zhang, H. Y.; Zhang, J.; Zhang, J. G.; Zhang, J. Q.; Zhang, J. W.; Zhang, J. Y.; Zhang, J. Z.; Zhang, L.; Zhang, S. H.; Zhang, T. R.; Zhang, X. J.; Zhang, X. Y.; Zhang, Y.; Zhang, Y. H.; Zhang, Y. S.; Zhang, Z. P.; Zhang, Z. Y.; Zhao, G.; Zhao, H. S.; Zhao, J. W.; Zhao, K. X.; Zhao, Lei; Zhao, Ling; Zhao, M. G.; Zhao, Q.; Zhao, S. J.; Zhao, T. C.; Zhao, X. H.; Zhao, Y. B.; Zhao, Z. G.; Zhemchugov, A.; Zheng, B.; Zheng, J. P.; Zheng, Y. H.; Zheng, Z. P.; Zhong, B.; Zhong, J.; Zhou, L.; Zhou, X. K.; Zhou, X. R.; Zhu, C.; Zhu, K.; Zhu, K. J.; Zhu, S. H.; Zhu, X. L.; Zhu, X. W.; Zhu, Y. M.; Zhu, Y. S.; Zhu, Z. A.; Zhuang, J.; Zou, B. S.; Zou, J. H.; Zuo, J. X.

2012-01-01

Based on a data sample of 106 X 10(6) psi' events collected with the BESIII detector, the decays psi' -> gamma chi(c0,2), chi(c0,2) -> gamma gamma are studied to determine the two-photon widths of the chi(c0,2) states. The two-photon decay branching fractions are determined to be B(chi(c0) -> gamma

Future Climate Forcings and Olive Yield in a Mediterranean Orchard

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Francesco Viola

2014-05-01

Full Text Available The olive tree is one of the most characteristic rainfed trees in the Mediterranean region. Observed and forecasted climate modifications in this region, such as the CO2 concentration and temperature increase and the net radiation, rainfall and wind speed decrease, will likely alter vegetation water stress and modify productivity. In order to simulate how climatic change could alter soil moisture dynamic, biomass growth and fruit productivity, a water-driven crop model has been used in this study. The numerical model, previously calibrated on an olive orchard located in Sicily (Italy with a satisfactory reproduction of historical olive yield data, has been forced with future climate scenarios generated using a stochastic weather generator and a downscaling procedure of an ensemble of climate model outputs. The stochastic downscaling is carried out using simulations of some General Circulation Models adopted in the fourth Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC assessment report (4AR for future scenarios. The outcomes state that climatic forcings driving potential evapotranspiration compensate for each other, resulting in a slight increase of this water demand flux; moreover, the increase of CO2 concentration leads to a potential assimilation increase and, consequently, to an overall productivity increase in spite of the growth of water stress due to the rainfall reduction.

Northern Hemisphere forcing of Southern Hemisphere climate during the last deglaciation.

Science.gov (United States)

He, Feng; Shakun, Jeremy D; Clark, Peter U; Carlson, Anders E; Liu, Zhengyu; Otto-Bliesner, Bette L; Kutzbach, John E

2013-02-07

According to the Milankovitch theory, changes in summer insolation in the high-latitude Northern Hemisphere caused glacial cycles through their impact on ice-sheet mass balance. Statistical analyses of long climate records supported this theory, but they also posed a substantial challenge by showing that changes in Southern Hemisphere climate were in phase with or led those in the north. Although an orbitally forced Northern Hemisphere signal may have been transmitted to the Southern Hemisphere, insolation forcing can also directly influence local Southern Hemisphere climate, potentially intensified by sea-ice feedback, suggesting that the hemispheres may have responded independently to different aspects of orbital forcing. Signal processing of climate records cannot distinguish between these conditions, however, because the proposed insolation forcings share essentially identical variability. Here we use transient simulations with a coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model to identify the impacts of forcing from changes in orbits, atmospheric CO(2) concentration, ice sheets and the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) on hemispheric temperatures during the first half of the last deglaciation (22-14.3 kyr BP). Although based on a single model, our transient simulation with only orbital changes supports the Milankovitch theory in showing that the last deglaciation was initiated by rising insolation during spring and summer in the mid-latitude to high-latitude Northern Hemisphere and by terrestrial snow-albedo feedback. The simulation with all forcings best reproduces the timing and magnitude of surface temperature evolution in the Southern Hemisphere in deglacial proxy records. AMOC changes associated with an orbitally induced retreat of Northern Hemisphere ice sheets is the most plausible explanation for the early Southern Hemisphere deglacial warming and its lead over Northern Hemisphere temperature; the ensuing rise in atmospheric CO(2

Modeling Climate Responses to Spectral Solar Forcing on Centennial and Decadal Time Scales

Science.gov (United States)

Wen, G.; Cahalan, R.; Rind, D.; Jonas, J.; Pilewskie, P.; Harder, J.

2012-01-01

We report a series of experiments to explore clima responses to two types of solar spectral forcing on decadal and centennial time scales - one based on prior reconstructions, and another implied by recent observations from the SORCE (Solar Radiation and Climate Experiment) SIM (Spectral 1rradiance Monitor). We apply these forcings to the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) Global/Middle Atmosphere Model (GCMAM). that couples atmosphere with ocean, and has a model top near the mesopause, allowing us to examine the full response to the two solar forcing scenarios. We show different climate responses to the two solar forCing scenarios on decadal time scales and also trends on centennial time scales. Differences between solar maximum and solar minimum conditions are highlighted, including impacts of the time lagged reSponse of the lower atmosphere and ocean. This contrasts with studies that assume separate equilibrium conditions at solar maximum and minimum. We discuss model feedback mechanisms involved in the solar forced climate variations.

A statistical mechanical approach for the computation of the climatic response to general forcings

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

V. Lucarini

2011-01-01

Full Text Available The climate belongs to the class of non-equilibrium forced and dissipative systems, for which most results of quasi-equilibrium statistical mechanics, including the fluctuation-dissipation theorem, do not apply. In this paper we show for the first time how the Ruelle linear response theory, developed for studying rigorously the impact of perturbations on general observables of non-equilibrium statistical mechanical systems, can be applied with great success to analyze the climatic response to general forcings. The crucial value of the Ruelle theory lies in the fact that it allows to compute the response of the system in terms of expectation values of explicit and computable functions of the phase space averaged over the invariant measure of the unperturbed state. We choose as test bed a classical version of the Lorenz 96 model, which, in spite of its simplicity, has a well-recognized prototypical value as it is a spatially extended one-dimensional model and presents the basic ingredients, such as dissipation, advection and the presence of an external forcing, of the actual atmosphere. We recapitulate the main aspects of the general response theory and propose some new general results. We then analyze the frequency dependence of the response of both local and global observables to perturbations having localized as well as global spatial patterns. We derive analytically several properties of the corresponding susceptibilities, such as asymptotic behavior, validity of Kramers-Kronig relations, and sum rules, whose main ingredient is the causality principle. We show that all the coefficients of the leading asymptotic expansions as well as the integral constraints can be written as linear function of parameters that describe the unperturbed properties of the system, such as its average energy. Some newly obtained empirical closure equations for such parameters allow to define such properties as an explicit function of the unperturbed forcing

Constraining Carbonaceous Aerosol Climate Forcing by Bridging Laboratory, Field and Modeling Studies

Science.gov (United States)

Dubey, M. K.; Aiken, A. C.; Liu, S.; Saleh, R.; Cappa, C. D.; Williams, L. R.; Donahue, N. M.; Gorkowski, K.; Ng, N. L.; Mazzoleni, C.; China, S.; Sharma, N.; Yokelson, R. J.; Allan, J. D.; Liu, D.

2014-12-01

Biomass and fossil fuel combustion emits black (BC) and brown carbon (BrC) aerosols that absorb sunlight to warm climate and organic carbon (OC) aerosols that scatter sunlight to cool climate. The net forcing depends strongly on the composition, mixing state and transformations of these carbonaceous aerosols. Complexities from large variability of fuel types, combustion conditions and aging processes have confounded their treatment in models. We analyse recent laboratory and field measurements to uncover fundamental mechanism that control the chemical, optical and microphysical properties of carbonaceous aerosols that are elaborated below: Wavelength dependence of absorption and the single scattering albedo (ω) of fresh biomass burning aerosols produced from many fuels during FLAME-4 was analysed to determine the factors that control the variability in ω. Results show that ω varies strongly with fire-integrated modified combustion efficiency (MCEFI)—higher MCEFI results in lower ω values and greater spectral dependence of ω (Liu et al GRL 2014). A parameterization of ω as a function of MCEFI for fresh BB aerosols is derived from the laboratory data and is evaluated by field data, including BBOP. Our laboratory studies also demonstrate that BrC production correlates with BC indicating that that they are produced by a common mechanism that is driven by MCEFI (Saleh et al NGeo 2014). We show that BrC absorption is concentrated in the extremely low volatility component that favours long-range transport. We observe substantial absorption enhancement for internally mixed BC from diesel and wood combustion near London during ClearFlo. While the absorption enhancement is due to BC particles coated by co-emitted OC in urban regions, it increases with photochemical age in rural areas and is simulated by core-shell models. We measure BrC absorption that is concentrated in the extremely low volatility components and attribute it to wood burning. Our results support

Dangerous human-made interference with climate: a GISS modelE study

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

J. Hansen

2007-01-01

Full Text Available We investigate the issue of "dangerous human-made interference with climate" using simulations with GISS modelE driven by measured or estimated forcings for 1880–2003 and extended to 2100 for IPCC greenhouse gas scenarios as well as the "alternative" scenario of Hansen and Sato (2004. Identification of "dangerous" effects is partly subjective, but we find evidence that added global warming of more than 1°C above the level in 2000 has effects that may be highly disruptive. The alternative scenario, with peak added forcing ~1.5 W/m2 in 2100, keeps further global warming under 1°C if climate sensitivity is ~3°C or less for doubled CO2. The alternative scenario keeps mean regional seasonal warming within 2σ (standard deviations of 20th century variability, but other scenarios yield regional changes of 5–10σ, i.e. mean conditions outside the range of local experience. We conclude that a CO2 level exceeding about 450 ppm is "dangerous", but reduction of non-CO2 forcings can provide modest relief on the CO2 constraint. We discuss three specific sub-global topics: Arctic climate change, tropical storm intensification, and ice sheet stability. We suggest that Arctic climate change has been driven as much by pollutants (O3, its precursor CH4, and soot as by CO2, offering hope that dual efforts to reduce pollutants and slow CO2 growth could minimize Arctic change. Simulated recent ocean warming in the region of Atlantic hurricane formation is comparable to observations, suggesting that greenhouse gases (GHGs may have contributed to a trend toward greater hurricane intensities. Increasing GHGs cause significant warming in our model in submarine regions of ice shelves and shallow methane hydrates, raising concern about the potential for accelerating sea level rise and future positive feedback from methane release. Growth of non-CO2 forcings has slowed in recent years, but CO2 emissions are now surging well above the alternative scenario. Prompt

Dangerous human-made interference with climate: a GISS modelE study

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hansen, J.; Lacis, A.; Miller, R.; Schmidt, G.A.; Russell, G.; Canuto, V.; Del Genio, A.; Hall, T.; Kiang, N.Y.; Rind, D.; Romanou, A.; Shindell, D.; Sun, S.; Hansen, J.; Sato, M.; Kharecha, P.; Nazarenko, L.; Aleinov, I.; Bauer, S.; Chandler, M.; Faluvegi, G.; Jonas, J.; Koch, D.; Lerner, J.; Perlwitz, Ju.; Unger, N.; Zhang, S.; Ruedy, R.; Lo, K.; Cheng, Y.; Oinas, V.; Schmunk, R.; Tausnev, N.; Yao, M.; Lacis, A.; Schmidt, G.A.; Del Genio, A.; Rind, D.; Romanou, A.; Shindell, D.; Thresher, D.; Miller, R.; Cairns, B.; Hall, T.; Perlwitz, Ja.; Baum, E.; Cohen, A.; Fleming, E.; Jackman, C.; Labow, G.; Friend, A.; Kelley, M.

2007-01-01

We investigate the issue of 'dangerous human-made interference with climate' using simulations with GISS modelE driven by measured or estimated forcing for 1880-2003 and extended to 2100 for IPCC greenhouse gas scenarios as well as the 'alternative' scenario of Hansen and Sato (2004). Identification of 'dangerous' effects is partly subjective, but we find evidence that added global warming of more than 1 degrees C above the level in 2000 has effects that may be highly disruptive. The alternative scenario, with peak added forcing similar to 1.5 W/m 2 in 2100, keeps further global warming under 1 degrees C if climate sensitivity is similar to 3 degrees C or less for doubled CO 2 . The alternative scenario keeps mean regional seasonal warming within 2 σ (standard deviations) of 20. century variability, but other scenarios yield regional changes of 5-10 σ, i.e. mean conditions outside the range of local experience. We conclude that a CO 2 level exceeding about 450 ppm is 'dangerous', but reduction of non-CO 2 forcing can provide modest relief on the CO 2 constraint. We discuss three specific sub-global topics: Arctic climate change, tropical storm intensification, and ice sheet stability. We suggest that Arctic climate change has been driven as much by pollutants (O 3 , its precursor CH 4 , and soot) as by CO 2 , offering hope that dual efforts to reduce pollutants and slow CO 2 growth could minimize Arctic change. Simulated recent ocean warming in the region of Atlantic hurricane formation is comparable to observations, suggesting that greenhouse gases (GHGs) may have contributed to a trend toward greater hurricane intensities. Increasing GHGs cause significant warming in our model in submarine regions of ice shelves and shallow methane hydrates, raising concern about the potential for accelerating sea level rise and future positive feedback from methane release. Growth of non-CO 2 forcing has slowed in recent years, but CO 2 emissions are now surging well above the

Ocean climate coupling in the tropical Pacific Ocean over the past fifty years: implications and feedbacks

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wang, Xiujun; Murtugudde, Ragu; Busalacchi, Antonio J.

2007-01-01

Full text: The tropical Pacific plays an important role in climate because of its significant air-sea exchanges of heat, freshwater, and carbon dioxide (C02), and because of its direct linkage to climate variability. There are two dominant modes of climate variability in the Tropics: the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). There has been strong evidence of ENSO and PDO impacts on tropical Pacific physics and biogeochemistry, including heat content, ocean circulation (McPhaden and Zhang 2002), and carbon fluxes (Feely ef al. 2006; Wang ef al. 2006). In this study, we apply a basin-scale ocean circulation-ecosystem-carbon model (Wang ef al. 2006) to study the responses of the tropical Pacific ecosystem, biogeochemistry and carbon cycle to climate forcing over the past 50 years. The model produces strong spatial and temporal variability in surface nutrient concentration, phytoplankton biomass, carbon uptake, and sea-to-air C02 flux, which are largely associated with the ENSO phenomenon. In particular, the size of the tropical Pacific C02 source is large during the ENSO cold phase but small during the ENSO warm phase. There are significant decadal variations in tropical Pacific carbon fluxes, reflecting physical and biogeochemical changes associated with the 1977 and 1997/98 PDO shifts. The 1977 regime shift caused 1 0 C warming in sea surface temperature and -50% reduction in surface iron concentration in the Niho3.4 area, leading to decreased biological activity. While there is a large decrease in phytoplankton growth and biomass, reduction in carbon uptake is smaller than expected, due to phytoplankton photoadaption, which increases the carbon to chlorophyll ratio in the upper euphotic zone and enhances sub-surface production. Photoadaption also results in clearer water near the surface, leading to less heating near the ocean surface and allowing more solar radiation to penetrate the subsurface. Our studies

Climate Forcing Datasets for Agricultural Modeling: Merged Products for Gap-Filling and Historical Climate Series Estimation

Science.gov (United States)

Ruane, Alex C.; Goldberg, Richard; Chryssanthacopoulos, James

2014-01-01

The AgMERRA and AgCFSR climate forcing datasets provide daily, high-resolution, continuous, meteorological series over the 1980-2010 period designed for applications examining the agricultural impacts of climate variability and climate change. These datasets combine daily resolution data from retrospective analyses (the Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications, MERRA, and the Climate Forecast System Reanalysis, CFSR) with in situ and remotely-sensed observational datasets for temperature, precipitation, and solar radiation, leading to substantial reductions in bias in comparison to a network of 2324 agricultural-region stations from the Hadley Integrated Surface Dataset (HadISD). Results compare favorably against the original reanalyses as well as the leading climate forcing datasets (Princeton, WFD, WFD-EI, and GRASP), and AgMERRA distinguishes itself with substantially improved representation of daily precipitation distributions and extreme events owing to its use of the MERRA-Land dataset. These datasets also peg relative humidity to the maximum temperature time of day, allowing for more accurate representation of the diurnal cycle of near-surface moisture in agricultural models. AgMERRA and AgCFSR enable a number of ongoing investigations in the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) and related research networks, and may be used to fill gaps in historical observations as well as a basis for the generation of future climate scenarios.

Orbital forcing of climate 1.4 billion years ago

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Zhang, Shuichang; Wang, Xiaomei; Hammarlund, Emma U

2015-01-01

Fluctuating climate is a hallmark of Earth. As one transcends deep into Earth time, however, both the evidence for and the causes of climate change become difficult to establish. We report geochemical and sedimentological evidence for repeated, short-term climate fluctuations from the exceptionally...... well-preserved ∼1.4-billion-year-old Xiamaling Formation of the North China Craton. We observe two patterns of climate fluctuations: On long time scales, over what amounts to tens of millions of years, sediments of the Xiamaling Formation record changes in geochemistry consistent with long-term changes...... reflect what appear to be orbitally forced changes in wind patterns and ocean circulation as they influenced rates of organic carbon flux, trace metal accumulation, and the source of detrital particles to the sediment....

CLUSTER GLIMPSES WITH RAVEN: AO-CORRECTED NEAR AND MID-INFRARED IMAGES OF GLIMPSE C01 AND GLIMPSE C02

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Davidge, T. J.; Andersen, D. R. [Dominion Astrophysical Observatory, National Research Council of Canada, 5071 West Saanich Road, Victoria, BC V9E 2E7 (Canada); Lardière, O., E-mail: tim.davidge@nrc.ca, E-mail: david.andersen@nrc.ca, E-mail: lardiere@uvic.ca [Department of Mechanical Engineering, University of Victoria, Victoria, BC V8W 3P2 (Canada); and others

2016-12-01

We discuss images of the star clusters GLIMPSE C01 (GC01) and GLIMPSE C02 (GC02) that were recorded with the Subaru IRCS. Distortions in the wavefront were corrected with the RAVEN adaptive optics (AO) science demonstrator, allowing individual stars in the central regions of both clusters—where the fractional contamination from non-cluster objects is lowest—to be imaged. In addition to J , H , and K ′ images, both clusters were observed through a narrow-band filter centered near 3.05 μ m; GC01 was also observed through two other narrow-band filters that sample longer wavelengths. Stars in the narrow-band images have an FWHM that is close to the telescope diffraction limit, demonstrating that open-loop AO systems like RAVEN can deliver exceptional image quality. The near-infrared color–magnitude diagram of GC01 is smeared by non-uniform extinction with a 1 σ dispersion Δ A{sub K}  = ±0.13 mag. Spatial variations in A{sub K} are not related in a systematic way to location in the field. The Red Clump is identified in the K luminosity function (LF) of GC01, and a distance modulus of 13.6 is found. The K LF of GC01 is consistent with a system that is dominated by stars with an age >1 Gyr. As for GC02, the K LF is flat for K  > 16, and the absence of a sub-giant branch argues against an old age if the cluster is at a distance of ∼7 kpc. Archival SPITZER [3.6] and [4.5] images of the clusters are also examined, and the red giant branch-tip is identified. It is demonstrated in the Appendix that the [3.6] surface brightness profiles of both clusters can be traced out to radii of at least 100 arcsec.

Avoided economic impacts of energy demand changes by 1.5 and 2 °C climate stabilization

Science.gov (United States)

Park, Chan; Fujimori, Shinichiro; Hasegawa, Tomoko; Takakura, Jun’ya; Takahashi, Kiyoshi; Hijioka, Yasuaki

2018-04-01

Energy demand associated with space heating and cooling is expected to be affected by climate change. There are several global projections of space heating and cooling use that take into consideration climate change, but a comprehensive uncertainty of socioeconomic and climate conditions, including a 1.5 °C global mean temperature change, has never been assessed. This paper shows the economic impact of changes in energy demand for space heating and cooling under multiple socioeconomic and climatic conditions. We use three shared socioeconomic pathways as socioeconomic conditions. For climate conditions, we use two representative concentration pathways that correspond to 4.0 °C and 2.0 °C scenarios, and a 1.5 °C scenario driven from the 2.0 °C scenario with assumption in conjunction with five general circulation models. We find that the economic impacts of climate change are largely affected by socioeconomic assumptions, and global GDP change rates range from +0.21% to ‑2.01% in 2100 under the 4.0 °C scenario, depending on the socioeconomic condition. Sensitivity analysis that differentiates the thresholds of heating and cooling degree days clarifies that the threshold is a strong factor that generates these differences. Meanwhile, the impact of the 1.5 °C is small regardless of socioeconomic assumptions (‑0.02% to ‑0.06%). The economic loss caused by differences in socioeconomic assumption under the 1.5 °C scenario is much smaller than that under the 2 °C scenario, which implies that stringent climate mitigation can work as a risk hedge to socioeconomic development diversity.

Socioeconomic Implications of Achieving 2.0 °C and 1.5 °C Climate Targets under Scientific Uncertainties

Science.gov (United States)

Su, X.; Takahashi, K.; Fujimori, S.; Hasegawa, T.; Tanaka, K.; Shiogama, H.; Emori, S.; LIU, J.; Hanasaki, N.; Hijioka, Y.; Masui, T.

2017-12-01

Large uncertainty exists in the temperature projections, including contributions from carbon cycle, climate system and aerosols. For the integrated assessment models (IAMs), like DICE, FUND and PAGE, however, the scientific uncertainties mainly rely on the distribution of (equilibrium) climate sensitivity. This study aims at evaluating the emission pathways by limiting temperature increase below 2.0 ºC or 1.5 ºC after 2100 considering scientific uncertainties, and exploring how socioeconomic indicators are affected by such scientific uncertainties. We use a stochastic version of the SCM4OPT, with an uncertainty measurement by considering alternative ranges of key parameters. Three climate cases, namely, i) base case of SSP2, ii) limiting temperature increase below 2.0 ºC after 2100 and iii) limiting temperature increase below 1.5 ºC after 2100, and three types of probabilities - i) >66% probability or likely, ii) >50% probability or more likely than not and iii) the mean of the probability distribution, are considered in the study. The results show that, i) for the 2.0ºC case, the likely CO2 reduction rate in 2100 ranges from 75.5%-102.4%, with mean value of 88.1%, and 93.0%-113.1% (mean 102.5%) for the 1.5ºC case; ii) a likely range of forcing effect is found for the 2.0 ºC case (2.7-3.9 Wm-2) due to scientific uncertainty, and 1.9-3.1 Wm-2 for the 1.5 ºC case; iii) the carbon prices within 50% confidential interval may differ a factor of 3 for both the 2.0ºC case and the 1.5 ºC case; iv) the abatement costs within 50% confidential interval may differ a factor of 4 for both the 2.0ºC case and the 1.5 ºC case. Nine C4MIP carbon cycle models and nineteen CMIP3 AOGCMs are used to account for the scientific uncertainties, following MAGICC 6.0. These uncertainties will result in a likely radiative forcing range of 6.1-7.5 Wm-2 and a likely temperature increase of 3.1-4.5 ºC in 2100 for the base case of SSP2. If we evaluate the 2 ºC target by limiting the

Climatic effects of 1950–2050 changes in US anthropogenic aerosols – Part 1: Aerosol trends and radiative forcing

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

D. G. Streets

2012-04-01

Full Text Available We calculate decadal aerosol direct and indirect (warm cloud radiative forcings from US anthropogenic sources over the 1950–2050 period. Past and future aerosol distributions are constructed using GEOS-Chem and historical emission inventories and future projections from the IPCC A1B scenario. Aerosol simulations are evaluated with observed spatial distributions and 1980–2010 trends of aerosol concentrations and wet deposition in the contiguous US. Direct and indirect radiative forcing is calculated using the GISS general circulation model and monthly mean aerosol distributions from GEOS-Chem. The radiative forcing from US anthropogenic aerosols is strongly localized over the eastern US. We find that its magnitude peaked in 1970–1990, with values over the eastern US (east of 100° W of −2.0 W m−2 for direct forcing including contributions from sulfate (−2.0 W m−2, nitrate (−0.2 W m−2, organic carbon (−0.2 W m−2, and black carbon (+0.4 W m−2. The uncertainties in radiative forcing due to aerosol radiative properties are estimated to be about 50%. The aerosol indirect effect is estimated to be of comparable magnitude to the direct forcing. We find that the magnitude of the forcing declined sharply from 1990 to 2010 (by 0.8 W m−2 direct and 1.0 W m−2 indirect, mainly reflecting decreases in SO2 emissions, and project that it will continue declining post-2010 but at a much slower rate since US SO2 emissions have already declined by almost 60% from their peak. This suggests that much of the warming effect of reducing US anthropogenic aerosol sources has already been realized. The small positive radiative forcing from US BC emissions (+0.3 W m−2 over the eastern US in 2010; 5% of the global forcing from anthropogenic BC emissions worldwide suggests that a US emission control strategy focused on BC would have only limited climate benefit.

Parity-non-conserving nuclear forces

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Desplanques, B.

1979-01-01

Theoretical and phenomenological approaches to parity-non-conserving nuclear forces are reviewed. Recent developments in the calculation of weak meson-nucleon coupling constants, whose knowledge is necessary to determine theoretically the parity-non-conserving nucleon-nucleon potential, are described. The consistency of different measurements of parity-non-conserving effects is discussed and the information they provide is compared to theoretical predictions

A continuous latitudinal energy balance model to explore non-uniform climate engineering strategies

Science.gov (United States)

Bonetti, F.; McInnes, C. R.

2016-12-01

Current concentrations of atmospheric CO2 exceed measured historical levels in modern times, largely attributed to anthropogenic forcing since the industrial revolution. The required decline in emissions rates has never been achieved leading to recent interest in climate engineering for future risk-mitigation strategies. Climate engineering aims to offset human-driven climate change. It involves techniques developed both to reduce the concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere (Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR) methods) and to counteract the radiative forcing that it generates (Solar Radiation Management (SRM) methods). In order to investigate effects of SRM technologies for climate engineering, an analytical model describing the main dynamics of the Earth's climate has been developed. The model is a time-dependent Energy Balance Model (EBM) with latitudinal resolution and allows for the evaluation of non-uniform climate engineering strategies. A significant disadvantage of climate engineering techniques involving the management of solar radiation is regional disparities in cooling. This model offers an analytical approach to design multi-objective strategies that counteract climate change on a regional basis: for example, to cool the Artic and restrict undesired impacts at mid-latitudes, or to control the equator-to-pole temperature gradient. Using the Green's function approach the resulting partial differential equation allows for the computation of the surface temperature as a function of time and latitude when a 1% per year increase in the CO2 concentration is considered. After the validation of the model through comparisons with high fidelity numerical models, it will be used to explore strategies for the injection of the aerosol precursors in the stratosphere. In particular, the model involves detailed description of the optical properties of the particles, the wash-out dynamics and the estimation of the radiative cooling they can generate.

Forcing of Climate Variations by Mev-gev Particles

Science.gov (United States)

Tinsley, Brian A.

1990-01-01

Changes in ionization production in the lower stratosphere by a few percent during Forbush decreases have been shown to correlate well with changes in winter tropospheric dynamics by a similar relatively small amount. Changes in ionization production by tens of percent on the decadal time scale have been shown to be correlated with changes in winter storm frequencies by tens of percent in the western North Atlantic. Changes in total solar irradiance or solar UV do not have time variations to match the tropospheric variations on the day to day time scales discussed here. Forcing related to magnetic activity is not supported. Thus solar wind/MeV-GeV particle changes appear to be the only viable forcing function for these day to day variations. If solar wind/particle forcing of a few percent amplitude can produce short term weather responses, then observed changes by tens of percent on the decadal and centennial time scale could produce climate changes on these longer time scales. The changes in circulation involved would produce regional climate changes, as observed. At present the relations between stratospheric ionization, electric fields and chemistry and aerosol and cloud microphysics are as poorly known as the relations between the latter and storm feedback processes. However, the capability for investigating these relationships now exists and has recently been most successfully used for elucidating the stratospheric chemistry and cloud microphysics associated with the Antarctic ozone hole. The economic benefits of being able to predict winter severity on an interannual basis, and the extent to which climate change related to solar variability will add to or substract from the greenhouse effect, should be more than adequate to justify support for research in this area.

Radiative forcing in the ACCMIP historical and future climate simulations

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

D. T. Shindell

2013-03-01

Full Text Available The Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP examined the short-lived drivers of climate change in current climate models. Here we evaluate the 10 ACCMIP models that included aerosols, 8 of which also participated in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5. The models reproduce present-day total aerosol optical depth (AOD relatively well, though many are biased low. Contributions from individual aerosol components are quite different, however, and most models underestimate east Asian AOD. The models capture most 1980–2000 AOD trends well, but underpredict increases over the Yellow/Eastern Sea. They strongly underestimate absorbing AOD in many regions. We examine both the direct radiative forcing (RF and the forcing including rapid adjustments (effective radiative forcing; ERF, including direct and indirect effects. The models' all-sky 1850 to 2000 global mean annual average total aerosol RF is (mean; range −0.26 W m−2; −0.06 to −0.49 W m−2. Screening based on model skill in capturing observed AOD yields a best estimate of −0.42 W m−2; −0.33 to −0.50 W m−2, including adjustment for missing aerosol components in some models. Many ACCMIP and CMIP5 models appear to produce substantially smaller aerosol RF than this best estimate. Climate feedbacks contribute substantially (35 to −58% to modeled historical aerosol RF. The 1850 to 2000 aerosol ERF is −1.17 W m−2; −0.71 to −1.44 W m−2. Thus adjustments, including clouds, typically cause greater forcing than direct RF. Despite this, the multi-model spread relative to the mean is typically the same for ERF as it is for RF, or even smaller, over areas with substantial forcing. The largest 1850 to 2000 negative aerosol RF and ERF values are over and near Europe, south and east Asia and North America. ERF, however, is positive over the Sahara, the Karakoram, high Southern latitudes and especially the Arctic. Global aerosol RF

Radiative forcing in the ACCMIP historical and future climate simulations

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Shindell, D. T.; Lamarque, J. -F.; Schulz, M.; Flanner, M.; Jiao, C.; Chin, M.; Young, P. J.; Lee, Y. H.; Rotstayn, L.; Mahowald, N.; Milly, G.; Faluvegi, G.; Balkanski, Y.; Collins, W. J.; Conley, A. J.; Dalsoren, S.; Easter, R.; Ghan, S.; Horowitz, L.; Liu, X.; Myhre, G.; Nagashima, T.; Naik, V.; Rumbold, S. T.; Skeie, R.; Sudo, K.; Szopa, S.; Takemura, T.; Voulgarakis, A.; Yoon, J. -H.; Lo, F.

2013-01-01

The Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP) examined the short-lived drivers of climate change in current climate models. Here we evaluate the 10 ACCMIP models that included aerosols, 8 of which also participated in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5). The models reproduce present-day total aerosol optical depth (AOD) relatively well, though many are biased low. Contributions from individual aerosol components are quite different, however, and most models underestimate east Asian AOD. The models capture most 1980-2000 AOD trends well, but underpredict increases over the Yellow/Eastern Sea. They strongly underestimate absorbing AOD in many regions. We examine both the direct radiative forcing (RF) and the forcing including rapid adjustments (effective radiative forcing; ERF, including direct and indirect effects). The models’ all-sky 1850 to 2000 global mean annual average total aerosol RF is (mean; range) -0.26Wm^-2-2. Screening based on model skill in capturing observed AOD yields a best estimate of -0.42Wm^{-2-2Climate feedbacks contribute substantially (35 to -58 %) to modeled historical aerosol RF. The 1850 to 2000 aerosol ERF is -1.17Wm-2-2forcing than direct RF. Despite this, the multi-model spread relative to the mean is typically the same for ERF as it is for RF, or even smaller, over areas with substantial forcing. The largest 1850 to 2000 negative aerosol RF and ERF values are over and near Europe, south and east Asia and North America. ERF, however, is positive over the Sahara, the Karakoram, high Southern latitudes and especially the Arctic. Global}

How Does The Climate Change?

Science.gov (United States)

Jones, R. N.

2011-12-01

In 1997, maximum temperature in SE Australia shifted up by 0.8°C at pH0impact indicators: baumé levels in winegrapes shift >21 days earlier from 1998, streamflow records decrease by 30-70% from 1997 and annual mean forest fire danger index increased by 38% from 1997. Despite catastrophic fires killing 178 people in early 2009, the public remains unaware of this large change in their exposure. When regional temperature was separated into internally and externally forced components, the latter component was found to warm in two steps, in 1968-73 and 1997. These dates coincide with shifts in zonal mean temperature (24-44S; Figure 1). Climate model output shows similar step and trend behavior. Tests run on zonal, hemispheric and global mean temperature observations found shifts in all regions. 1997 marks a shift in global temperature of 0.3°C at pH0ocean heat content. The prevailing paradigm for how climate variables change is signal-noise construct combining a smooth signal with variations caused by internal climate variability. There seems to be no sound theoretical basis for this assumption. On the contrary, complex system behavior would suggest non-linear responses to externally forced change, especially at the regional scale. Some of our most basic assumptions about how climate changes may need to be re-examined.

Climatic evolution during the last century

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Schuurmans, C.J.E.; Rijksuniversiteit Utrecht

1991-01-01

An attempt is made to list the most important changes of the coupled climate system over the last 100 years. The most obvious of these is a small, global, though non-uniform, warming. Other concepts are discussed briefly: climate change under constant external forcing and due to external forcing, short term climate changes (less than 10 years), decadal variations, changes of the atmospheric circulation, changes in variability, recent climate in longer perspective, climatic jumps as a mode of variation, detection of the greenhouse warming

Insight to forcing of late Quaternary climate change from aeolian dust archives in eastern Australia

Science.gov (United States)

McGowan, H. A.; Marx, S.; Soderholm, J.; Denholm, J.; Petherick, L.

2010-12-01

The Australian continent is the largest source of dust in the Southern Hemisphere. Historical dust emissions records display inter-annual variability in response to the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon and inter-decadal variability which has been linked to the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). These reflect change in hydrometeorology of the continents two major dust source regions, the Murray-Darling Basin and the Lake Eyre Basin. The historical records do not allow longer term variability of ENSO and the PDO and their influence on Australia to be quantified. Importantly, sub-Milankovitch centennial to multi-millennial scale climate cycles and their impacts are not represented in the historical records. In this paper we present summary results from the analysis of two aeolain dust records spanning 7 ka and 45 ka. These were developed from ombrotrophic mire and lacustrine sediment cores collected from the Australian Alps and southeast Queensland. Both sites are located in the southeast Australian dust transport pathway and provide rare insight to forcings of climate variability and its impacts on eastern Australia through the late Quaternary. Age controls for the cores were established using 14C and 210Pb dating [McGowan et al. 2008, 2010]. The cores were sliced into 2 to 5 mm segments with a sub-sample of each segment combusted at 450°C for 12 hrs to destroy organic material and allow recovery of mineral dust. Geochemical fingerprinting of the global climate variability and the impact of forcings originating from the North Hemisphere. These results highlight the potential for adverse impacts on the climate of Australia by disturbance to North Atlantic Ocean circulation. References Marx, S. K., et al. 2005: Provenance of long travelled dust determined with ultra trace element composition: A pilot study with samples from New Zealand glaciers. Earth Surf. Processes Landforms, 30, 699-716. McGowan, H.A., et al. 2008: An ultra-high resolution record of

Estimating Non-Market Impacts of Climate Change and Climate Policy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rothman, D.S.; Amelung, B.; Polome, P.

2003-01-01

single individual or group and their use by one person does not reduce their use by others. This makes their valuation even more problematic. Most studies agree that non-market impacts make up a significant, if not the dominant, share of the potential impacts of climate change. In the IPCC's Second Assessment Report it is noted that non-market costs accounted for between 30-80% of the total in existing estimates of the costs of climate change. In a review of more recent estimates, several of the same authors state that whereas market impacts may be lower than initially thought, non-market impacts may be more pronounced. Still, there remain a number of questions about how properly to account for nonmarket impacts. In this paper we will not reiterate or provide new estimates of the value of non-market impacts and the potential benefits from climate policies. Rather, we will focus on a number of issues that we see in the existing studies as presenting the potential for confusion in understanding these impacts and benefits. The need to account for non-market impacts is fundamental to a number of these concerns. The specific issues to be addressed are the context in which climate impacts and policy options have been considered, the definition and classification of impacts, the question of value paradigms, and the limitations of economic valuation techniques. The principle argument we wish to make is that we need to pose our research questions more carefully and be more clear and consistent in order for the results to be considered credible, transparent, and relevant for policy

Tectonics, orbital forcing, global climate change, and human evolution in Africa: introduction to the African paleoclimate special volume.

Science.gov (United States)

Maslin, Mark A; Christensen, Beth

2007-11-01

The late Cenozoic climate of Africa is a critical component for understanding human evolution. African climate is controlled by major tectonic changes, global climate transitions, and local variations in orbital forcing. We introduce the special African Paleoclimate Issue of the Journal of Human Evolution by providing a background for and synthesis of the latest work relating to the environmental context for human evolution. Records presented in this special issue suggest that the regional tectonics, appearance of C(4) plants in East Africa, and late Cenozoic global cooling combined to produce a long-term drying trend in East Africa. Of particular importance is the uplift associated with the East African Rift Valley formation, which altered wind flow patterns from a more zonal to more meridinal direction. Results in this volume suggest a marked difference in the climate history of southern and eastern Africa, though both are clearly influenced by the major global climate thresholds crossed in the last 3 million years. Papers in this volume present lake, speleothem, and marine paleoclimate records showing that the East African long-term drying trend is punctuated by episodes of short, alternating periods of extreme wetness and aridity. These periods of extreme climate variability are characterized by the precession-forced appearance and disappearance of large, deep lakes in the East African Rift Valley and paralleled by low and high wind-driven dust loads reaching the adjacent ocean basins. Dating of these records show that over the last 3 million years such periods only occur at the times of major global climatic transitions, such as the intensification of Northern Hemisphere Glaciation (2.7-2.5 Ma), intensification of the Walker Circulation (1.9-1.7 Ma), and the Mid-Pleistocene Revolution (1-0.7 Ma). Authors in this volume suggest this onset occurs as high latitude forcing in both Hemispheres compresses the Intertropical Convergence Zone so that East Africa

Distinguishing Aerosol Impacts on Climate Over the Past Century

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Koch, Dorothy; Menon, Surabi; Del Genio, Anthony; Ruedy, Reto; Alienov, Igor; Schmidt, Gavin A.

2008-08-22

Aerosol direct (DE), indirect (IE), and black carbon-snow albedo (BAE) effects on climate between 1890 and 1995 are compared using equilibrium aerosol-climate simulations in the Goddard Institute for Space Studies General Circulation Model coupled to a mixed layer ocean. Pairs of control(1890)-perturbation(1995) with successive aerosol effects allow isolation of each effect. The experiments are conducted both with and without concurrent changes in greenhouse gases (GHG's). A new scheme allowing dependence of snow albedo on black carbon snow concentration is introduced. The fixed GHG experiments global surface air temperature (SAT) changed -0.2, -1.0 and +0.2 C from the DE, IE, and BAE. Ice and snow cover increased 1.0% from the IE and decreased 0.3% from the BAE. These changes were a factor of 4 larger in the Arctic. Global cloud cover increased by 0.5% from the IE. Net aerosol cooling effects are about half as large as the GHG warming, and their combined climate effects are smaller than the sum of their individual effects. Increasing GHG's did not affect the IE impact on cloud cover, however they decreased aerosol effects on SAT by 20% and on snow/ice cover by 50%; they also obscure the BAE on snow/ice cover. Arctic snow, ice, cloud, and shortwave forcing changes occur mostly during summer-fall, but SAT, sea level pressure, and long-wave forcing changes occur during winter. An explanation is that aerosols impact the cryosphere during the warm-season but the associated SAT effect is delayed until winter.

The role of non-CO2 mitigation within the dairy sector in pursuing climate goals

Science.gov (United States)

Rolph, K.; Forest, C. E.

2017-12-01

Mitigation of non-CO2 climate forcing agents must complement the mitigation of carbon dioxide (CO2) to achieve long-term temperature and climate policy goals. By using multi-gas mitigation strategies, society can limit the rate of temperature change on decadal timescales and reduce the cost of implementing policies that only consider CO2 mitigation. The largest share of global non-CO2 greenhouse gas emissions is attributed to agriculture, with activities related to dairy production contributing the most in this sector. Approximately 4% of global anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions is released from the dairy sub-sector, primarily through enteric fermentation, feed production, and manure management. Dairy farmers can significantly reduce their emissions by implementing better management practices. This study assesses the potential mitigation of projected climate change if greenhouse gases associated with the dairy sector were reduced. To compare the performance of several mitigation measures under future climate change, we employ a fully coupled earth system model of intermediate complexity, the MIT Integrated Global System Model (IGSM). The model includes an interactive carbon-cycle capable of addressing important feedbacks between the climate and terrestrial biosphere. Mitigation scenarios are developed using estimated emission reductions of implemented management practices studied by the USDA-funded Sustainable Dairy Project (Dairy-CAP). We examine pathways to reach the US dairy industry's voluntary goal of reducing dairy emissions 25% by 2020. We illustrate the importance of ongoing mitigation efforts in the agricultural industry to reduce non-CO2 greenhouse gas emissions towards established climate goals.

Climate and health implications of future aerosol emission scenarios

Science.gov (United States)

Partanen, Antti-Ilari; Landry, Jean-Sébastien; Damon Matthews, H.

2018-02-01

Anthropogenic aerosols have a net cooling effect on climate and also cause adverse health effects by degrading air quality. In this global-scale sensitivity study, we used a combination of the aerosol-climate model ECHAM-HAMMOZ and the University of Victoria Earth System Climate Model to assess the climate and health effects of aerosols emissions from three Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5) and two new (LOW and HIGH) aerosol emission scenarios derived from RCP4.5, but that span a wider spectrum of possible future aerosol emissions. All simulations had CO2 emissions and greenhouse gas forcings from RCP4.5. Aerosol forcing declined similarly in the standard RCP aerosol emission scenarios: the aerosol effective radiative forcing (ERF) decreased from -1.3 W m-2 in 2005 to between -0.1 W m-2 and -0.4 W m-2 in 2100. The differences in ERF were substantially larger between LOW (-0.02 W m-2 in 2100) and HIGH (-0.8 W m-2) scenarios. The global mean temperature difference between the simulations with standard RCP aerosol emissions was less than 0.18 °C, whereas the difference between LOW and HIGH reached 0.86 °C in 2061. In LOW, the rate of warming peaked at 0.48 °C per decade in the 2030s, whereas in HIGH it was the lowest of all simulations and never exceeded 0.23 °C per decade. Using present-day population density and baseline mortality rates for all scenarios, PM2.5-induced premature mortality was 2 371 800 deaths per year in 2010 and 525 700 in 2100 with RCP4.5 aerosol emissions; in HIGH, the premature mortality reached its maximum value of 2 780 800 deaths per year in 2030, whereas in LOW the premature mortality at 2030 was below 299 900 deaths per year. Our results show potential trade-offs in aerosol mitigation with respect to climate change and public health as ambitious reduction of aerosol emissions considerably increased warming while decreasing mortality.

Dicty_cDB: FC-AA02 [Dicty_cDB

Lifescience Database Archive (English)

Full Text Available FC (Link to library) FC-AA02 (Link to dictyBase) - - - Contig-U16527-1 FC-AA02Z (Li...nk to Original site) - - FC-AA02Z 458 - - - - Show FC-AA02 Library FC (Link to library) Clone ID FC-AA02 (Link to dic...linum small subunit ribosomal RNA gene, partial sequence. 149 2e-47 2 AY179984 |AY179984.1 Uncultured alveo... CP000930_2283( CP000930 |pid:none) Heliobacterium modesticaldum Ic... 33 2.3 AP009386_1894( AP009386 |pid:none) Burkholderia multi... EU955514 |pid:none) Zea mays clone 1535262 hypothetica... 50 2e-05 BA000023_1285

Radiative Forcing in the ACCMIP Historical and Future Climate Simulations

Science.gov (United States)

Shindell, Drew Todd; Lamarque, J.-F.; Schulz, M.; Flanner, M.; Jiao, C.; Chin, M.; Young, P. J.; Lee, Y. H.; Rotstayn, L.; Mahowald, N.;

Recent advances in understanding secondary organic aerosol: Implications for global climate forcing

Science.gov (United States)

Shrivastava, Manish; Cappa, Christopher D.; Fan, Jiwen; Goldstein, Allen H.; Guenther, Alex B.; Jimenez, Jose L.; Kuang, Chongai; Laskin, Alexander; Martin, Scot T.; Ng, Nga Lee; Petaja, Tuukka; Pierce, Jeffrey R.; Rasch, Philip J.; Roldin, Pontus; Seinfeld, John H.; Shilling, John; Smith, James N.; Thornton, Joel A.; Volkamer, Rainer; Wang, Jian; Worsnop, Douglas R.; Zaveri, Rahul A.; Zelenyuk, Alla; Zhang, Qi

2017-06-01

Anthropogenic emissions and land use changes have modified atmospheric aerosol concentrations and size distributions over time. Understanding preindustrial conditions and changes in organic aerosol due to anthropogenic activities is important because these features (1) influence estimates of aerosol radiative forcing and (2) can confound estimates of the historical response of climate to increases in greenhouse gases. Secondary organic aerosol (SOA), formed in the atmosphere by oxidation of organic gases, represents a major fraction of global submicron-sized atmospheric organic aerosol. Over the past decade, significant advances in understanding SOA properties and formation mechanisms have occurred through measurements, yet current climate models typically do not comprehensively include all important processes. This review summarizes some of the important developments during the past decade in understanding SOA formation. We highlight the importance of some processes that influence the growth of SOA particles to sizes relevant for clouds and radiative forcing, including formation of extremely low volatility organics in the gas phase, acid-catalyzed multiphase chemistry of isoprene epoxydiols, particle-phase oligomerization, and physical properties such as volatility and viscosity. Several SOA processes highlighted in this review are complex and interdependent and have nonlinear effects on the properties, formation, and evolution of SOA. Current global models neglect this complexity and nonlinearity and thus are less likely to accurately predict the climate forcing of SOA and project future climate sensitivity to greenhouse gases. Efforts are also needed to rank the most influential processes and nonlinear process-related interactions, so that these processes can be accurately represented in atmospheric chemistry-climate models.

Climate Reference Network Hourly02 Product

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The U.S. Climate Reference Network is designed specifically to monitor national climate change with best scientific practice and adherence to the accepted principles...

Modified ocean circulation, albedo instability and ice-flow instability. Risks of non-linear climate change

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Ham, J. van; Beer, R.J. van; Builtjes, P.J.H.; Roemer, M.G.M. [TNO Inst. of Environmental Sciences, Delft (Netherlands); Koennen, G.P. [KNMI, Royal Netherlands Meteorological Inst., de Bilt (Netherlands); Oerlemans, J. [Utrecht Univ. (Netherlands). Inst. for Meteorological and Atmospheric Research

1995-12-31

In this presentation part of an investigation is described into risks for climate change which are presently not adequately covered in General Circulation Models. In the concept of climate change as a result of the enhanced greenhouse effect it is generally assumed that the radiative forcings from increased concentrations of greenhouse gases (GHG) will result in a proportional or quasilinear global warming. Though correlations of this kind are known from palaeoclimate research, the variability of the climate seems to prevent the direct proof of a causal relation between recent greenhouse gas concentrations and temperature observations. In order to resolve the issue the use of General Circulation Models (GCMs), though still inadequate at present, is indispensable. Around the world some 10 leading GCMs exist which have been the subject of evaluation and intercomparison in a number of studies. Their results are regularly assessed in the IPCC process. A discussion on their performance in simulating present or past climates and the causes of their weak points shows that the depiction of clouds is a major weakness of GCMs. A second element which is virtually absent in GCMs are the feedbacks from natural biogeochemical cycles. These cycles are influenced by man in a number of ways. GCMs have a limited performance in simulating regional effects on climate. Moreover, albedo instability, in part due to its interaction with cloudiness, is only roughly represented. Apparently, not all relevant processes have been included in the GCMs. That situation constitutes a risk, since it cannot be ruled out that a missing process could cause or trigger a non-linear climate change. In the study non-linear climate change is connected with those processes which could provide feedbacks with a risk for non-monotonous or discontinuous behaviour of the climate system, or which are unpredictable or could cause rapid transitions

Modified ocean circulation, albedo instability and ice-flow instability. Risks of non-linear climate change

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Ham, J van; Beer, R.J. van; Builtjes, P J.H.; Roemer, M G.M. [TNO Inst. of Environmental Sciences, Delft (Netherlands); Koennen, G P [KNMI, Royal Netherlands Meteorological Inst., de Bilt (Netherlands); Oerlemans, J [Utrecht Univ. (Netherlands). Inst. for Meteorological and Atmospheric Research

1996-12-31

In this presentation part of an investigation is described into risks for climate change which are presently not adequately covered in General Circulation Models. In the concept of climate change as a result of the enhanced greenhouse effect it is generally assumed that the radiative forcings from increased concentrations of greenhouse gases (GHG) will result in a proportional or quasilinear global warming. Though correlations of this kind are known from palaeoclimate research, the variability of the climate seems to prevent the direct proof of a causal relation between recent greenhouse gas concentrations and temperature observations. In order to resolve the issue the use of General Circulation Models (GCMs), though still inadequate at present, is indispensable. Around the world some 10 leading GCMs exist which have been the subject of evaluation and intercomparison in a number of studies. Their results are regularly assessed in the IPCC process. A discussion on their performance in simulating present or past climates and the causes of their weak points shows that the depiction of clouds is a major weakness of GCMs. A second element which is virtually absent in GCMs are the feedbacks from natural biogeochemical cycles. These cycles are influenced by man in a number of ways. GCMs have a limited performance in simulating regional effects on climate. Moreover, albedo instability, in part due to its interaction with cloudiness, is only roughly represented. Apparently, not all relevant processes have been included in the GCMs. That situation constitutes a risk, since it cannot be ruled out that a missing process could cause or trigger a non-linear climate change. In the study non-linear climate change is connected with those processes which could provide feedbacks with a risk for non-monotonous or discontinuous behaviour of the climate system, or which are unpredictable or could cause rapid transitions

Differences in the efficacy of climate forcings explained by variations in atmospheric boundary layer depth.

Science.gov (United States)

Davy, Richard; Esau, Igor

2016-05-25

The Earth has warmed in the last century and a large component of that warming has been attributed to increased anthropogenic greenhouse gases. There are also numerous processes that introduce strong, regionalized variations to the overall warming trend. However, the ability of a forcing to change the surface air temperature depends on its spatial and temporal distribution. Here we show that the efficacy of a forcing is determined by the effective heat capacity of the atmosphere, which in cold and dry climates is defined by the depth of the planetary boundary layer. This can vary by an order of magnitude on different temporal and spatial scales, and so we get a strongly amplified temperature response in shallow boundary layers. This must be accounted for to assess the efficacy of a climate forcing, and also implies that multiple climate forcings cannot be linearly combined to determine the temperature response.

Rate of non-linearity in DMS aerosol-cloud-climate interactions

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

M. A. Thomas

2011-11-01

Full Text Available The degree of non-linearity in DMS-cloud-climate interactions is assessed using the ECHAM5-HAMMOZ model by taking into account end-to-end aerosol chemistry-cloud microphysics link. The evaluation is made over the Southern oceans in austral summer, a region of minimal anthropogenic influence. In this study, we compare the DMS-derived changes in the aerosol and cloud microphysical properties between a baseline simulation with the ocean DMS emissions from a prescribed climatology, and a scenario where the DMS emissions are doubled. Our results show that doubling the DMS emissions in the current climate results in a non-linear response in atmospheric DMS burden and subsequently, in SO₂ and H₂SO₄ burdens due to inadequate OH oxidation. The aerosol optical depth increases by only ~20 % in the 30° S–75° S belt in the SH summer months. This increases the vertically integrated cloud droplet number concentrations (CDNC by 25 %. Since the vertically integrated liquid water vapor is constant in our model simulations, an increase in CDNC leads to a reduction in cloud droplet radius of 3.4 % over the Southern oceans in summer. The equivalent increase in cloud liquid water path is 10.7 %. The above changes in cloud microphysical properties result in a change in global annual mean radiative forcing at the TOA of −1.4 W m⁻². The results suggest that the DMS-cloud microphysics link is highly non-linear. This has implications for future studies investigating the DMS-cloud climate feedbacks in a warming world and for studies evaluating geoengineering options to counteract warming by modulating low level marine clouds.

Uncertainties in forces extracted from non-contact atomic force microscopy measurements by fitting of long-range background forces

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Adam Sweetman

2014-04-01

Full Text Available In principle, non-contact atomic force microscopy (NC-AFM now readily allows for the measurement of forces with sub-nanonewton precision on the atomic scale. In practice, however, the extraction of the often desired ‘short-range’ force from the experimental observable (frequency shift is often far from trivial. In most cases there is a significant contribution to the total tip–sample force due to non-site-specific van der Waals and electrostatic forces. Typically, the contribution from these forces must be removed before the results of the experiment can be successfully interpreted, often by comparison to density functional theory calculations. In this paper we compare the ‘on-minus-off’ method for extracting site-specific forces to a commonly used extrapolation method modelling the long-range forces using a simple power law. By examining the behaviour of the fitting method in the case of two radically different interaction potentials we show that significant uncertainties in the final extracted forces may result from use of the extrapolation method.

Climate for change

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Newell, P.

2000-01-01

Climate for Change: Non-State Actors and the Global Politics of the Greenhouse provides a challenging explanation of the forces that have shaped the international global warming debate. Unlike existing books on the politics of climate change, this book concentrates on how non-stage actors, such as scientific, environmental and industry groups, as opposed to governmental organisations, affect political outcomes in global fora on climate change. It also provides insights in to the role of the media in influencing the agenda. The book draws on a range of analytical approaches to assess and explain the influence of these non-governmental organisations in the course of global climate change politics. The book will be of interest to all researchers and policy-makers associated with climate change, and will be used on university courses in international relations, politics and environmental studies. (Author)

Untangling Topographic and Climatic Forcing of Earthflow Motion

Science.gov (United States)

Finnegan, N. J.; Nereson, A. L.

2017-12-01

Earthflows commonly form in steep river canyons and are argued to initiate from rapid incision that destabilizes hill slope toes. At the same time, earthflows are known to exhibit a temporal pattern of movement that is correlated with seasonal precipitation and associated changes in effective stress. In this contribution, we use infinite slope analysis to illuminate the relative roles of topographic slope and climate (via its control on pore fluid pressure) in influencing earthflow motion at Oak Ridge earthflow, near San Jose, CA. To this end, we synthesize two years of shallow (2.7 m depth) pore fluid pressure data and continuous GPS-derived velocities with an 80-year record of historical deformation derived from tracking of trees and rocks on orthophotos along much of the 1.4 km length and 400 m relief of the earthflow. Multiple lines of evidence suggest that motion of Oak Ridge earthflow occurs as frictional sliding along a discrete failure surface, as argued for other earthflows. Spatial patterns of sliding velocity along the earthflow show the same sensitivity to topographic slope for five discrete periods of historical sliding, accelerating by roughly an order of magnitude along a 20 degree increase in earthflow gradient. In contrast, during the 2016-2017 winter, velocity increased much more rapidly for an equivalent increase in driving stress due to pore-fluid pressure rise at our GPS antenna. During this time period, Oak Ridge earthflow moved approximately 30 cm and we observed a relatively simple, non-linear relationship between GPS-derived sliding velocity and shallow pore fluid pressure. Rapid sliding in 2016-2017 (> 0.6 cm/day) occurred exclusively during the week following a large winter storm event that raised pore pressures to seasonal highs within only 1-2 days of the storm peak. These observations suggests that a mechanism, such as dilatant strengthening, acts to stabilize velocities for a given value of pore fluid pressure in the landslide mass

Altered performance of forest pests under atmospheres enriched by C02 and O3

Science.gov (United States)

Kevin E. Percy; Caroline S. Awmack; Richard L. Lindroth; Mark E. Kubiske; Brian J. Kopper; J. G. Isebrands; Kurt S. Pregitzer; George R. Hendrey; Richard E. Dickson; Donald R. Zak; Elina Oksanen; Jaak Sober; Richard Harrington; David F. Karnosky

2002-01-01

Human activity causes increasing background concentrations of the greenhouse gases C02 and O3. Increased levels of C02 can be found in all terrestrial ecosystems. Damaging O3 concentrations currently occur over 29% of the world's temperate and subpolar forests but are...

Coupled Aerosol-Chemistry-Climate Twentieth-Century Transient Model Investigation: Trends in Short-Lived Species and Climate Responses

Science.gov (United States)

Koch, Dorothy; Bauer, Susanne E.; Del Genio, Anthony; Faluvegi, Greg; McConnell, Joseph R.; Menon, Surabi; Miller, Ronald L.; Rind, David; Ruedy, Reto; Schmidt, Gavin A.;

Quantifying the astronomical contribution to Pleistocene climate change: A non-linear, statistical approach

Science.gov (United States)

Crucifix, Michel; Wilkinson, Richard; Carson, Jake; Preston, Simon; Alemeida, Carlos; Rougier, Jonathan

2013-04-01

The existence of an action of astronomical forcing on the Pleistocene climate is almost undisputed. However, quantifying this action is not straightforward. In particular, the phenomenon of deglaciation is generally interpreted as a manifestation of instability, which is typical of non-linear systems. As a consequence, explaining the Pleistocene climate record as the addition of an astronomical contribution and noise-as often done using harmonic analysis tools-is potentially deceptive. Rather, we advocate a methodology in which non-linear stochastic dynamical systems are calibrated on the Pleistocene climate record. The exercise, though, requires careful statistical reasoning and state-of-the-art techniques. In fact, the problem has been judged to be mathematically 'intractable and unsolved' and some pragmatism is justified. In order to illustrate the methodology we consider one dynamical system that potentially captures four dynamical features of the Pleistocene climate : the existence of a saddle-node bifurcation in at least one of its slow components, a time-scale separation between a slow and a fast component, the action of astronomical forcing, and the existence a stochastic contribution to the system dynamics. This model is obviously not the only possible representation of Pleistocene dynamics, but it encapsulates well enough both our theoretical and empirical knowledge into a very simple form to constitute a valid starting point. The purpose of this poster is to outline the practical challenges in calibrating such a model on paleoclimate observations. Just as in time series analysis, there is no one single and universal test or criteria that would demonstrate the validity of an approach. Several methods exist to calibrate the model and judgement develops by the confrontation of the results of the different methods. In particular, we consider here the Kalman filter variants, the Particle Monte-Carlo Markov Chain, and two other variants of Sequential Monte

Orbital forcing of Arctic climate: mechanisms of climate response and implications for continental glaciation

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Jackson, C S [Program in Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, Princeton University, NJ 08542, Princeton (United States); Institute for Geophysics, The John A. and Katherine G. Jackson School of Geosciences, The University of Texas at Austin, 4412 Spicewood Springs Rd., Bldg 600, TX 78759, Austin (United States); Broccoli, A J [NOAA/Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, NJ 08542, Princeton (United States); Department of Environmental Sciences, Rutgers University, NJ 08903, New Brunswick (United States)

2003-12-01

Progress in understanding how terrestrial ice volume is linked to Earth's orbital configuration has been impeded by the cost of simulating climate system processes relevant to glaciation over orbital time scales (10{sup 3}-10{sup 5} years). A compromise is usually made to represent the climate system by models that are averaged over one or more spatial dimensions or by three-dimensional models that are limited to simulating particular ''snapshots'' in time. We take advantage of the short equilibration time ({proportional_to}10 years) of a climate model consisting of a three-dimensional atmosphere coupled to a simple slab ocean to derive the equilibrium climate response to accelerated variations in Earth's orbital configuration over the past 165,000 years. Prominent decreases in ice melt and increases in snowfall are simulated during three time intervals near 26, 73, and 117 thousand years ago (ka) when aphelion was in late spring and obliquity was low. There were also significant decreases in ice melt and increases in snowfall near 97 and 142 ka when eccentricity was relatively large, aphelion was in late spring, and obliquity was high or near its long term mean. These ''glaciation-friendly'' time intervals correspond to prominent and secondary phases of terrestrial ice growth seen within the marine {delta}{sup 18}O record. Both dynamical and thermal effects contribute to the increases in snowfall during these periods, through increases in storm activity and the fraction of precipitation falling as snow. The majority of the mid- to high latitude response to orbital forcing is organized by the properties of sea ice, through its influence on radiative feedbacks that nearly double the size of the orbital forcing as well as its influence on the seasonal evolution of the latitudinal temperature gradient. (orig.)

CO2 forcing induces semi-direct effects with consequences for climate feedback interpretations

Science.gov (United States)

Andrews, Timothy; Forster, Piers M.

2008-02-01

Climate forcing and feedbacks are diagnosed from seven slab-ocean GCMs for 2 × CO2 using a regression method. Results are compared to those using conventional methodologies to derive a semi-direct forcing due to tropospheric adjustment, analogous to the semi-direct effect of absorbing aerosols. All models show a cloud semi-direct effect, indicating a rapid cloud response to CO2; cloud typically decreases, enhancing the warming. Similarly there is evidence of semi-direct effects from water-vapour, lapse-rate, ice and snow. Previous estimates of climate feedbacks are unlikely to have taken these semi-direct effects into account and so misinterpret processes as feedbacks that depend only on the forcing, but not the global surface temperature. We show that the actual cloud feedback is smaller than what previous methods suggest and that a significant part of the cloud response and the large spread between previous model estimates of cloud feedback is due to the semi-direct forcing.

Impact of climate forcing uncertainty and human water use on global and continental water balance components

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

H. Müller Schmied

2016-10-01

Full Text Available The assessment of water balance components using global hydrological models is subject to climate forcing uncertainty as well as to an increasing intensity of human water use within the 20th century. The uncertainty of five state-of-the-art climate forcings and the resulting range of cell runoff that is simulated by the global hydrological model WaterGAP is presented. On the global land surface, about 62 % of precipitation evapotranspires, whereas 38 % discharges into oceans and inland sinks. During 1971–2000, evapotranspiration due to human water use amounted to almost 1 % of precipitation, while this anthropogenic water flow increased by a factor of approximately 5 between 1901 and 2010. Deviation of estimated global discharge from the ensemble mean due to climate forcing uncertainty is approximately 4 %. Precipitation uncertainty is the most important reason for the uncertainty of discharge and evapotranspiration, followed by shortwave downward radiation. At continental levels, deviations of water balance components due to uncertain climate forcing are higher, with the highest discharge deviations occurring for river discharge in Africa (−6 to 11 % from the ensemble mean. Uncertain climate forcings also affect the estimation of irrigation water use and thus the estimated human impact of river discharge. The uncertainty range of global irrigation water consumption amounts to approximately 50 % of the global sum of water consumption in the other water use sector.

On multi-fingerprint detection and attribution of greenhouse gas- and aerosol forced climate change

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hegerl, G C [Max-Planck-Institut fuer Meteorologie, Hamburg (Germany); Hasselmann, K [Max-Planck-Institut fuer Meteorologie, Hamburg (Germany); Cubasch, U [Deutsches Klimarechenzentrum (DKRZ), Hamburg (Germany); Mitchell, J F.B. [Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research, Bracknell (United Kingdom). Meteorological Office; Roeckner, E [Max-Planck-Institut fuer Meteorologie, Hamburg (Germany); Voss, R [Deutsches Klimarechenzentrum (DKRZ), Hamburg (Germany); Waszkewitz, J [Deutsches Klimarechenzentrum (DKRZ), Hamburg (Germany)

1996-07-01

A multi-fingerprint analysis is applied to the detection and attribution of anthropogenic climate change. While a single fingerprint, as applied in a previous paper by Hegerl et al. (1996), is optimal for detecting a significant climate change, the simultaneous use of several fingerprints allows one to investigate additionally the consistency between observations and model predicted climate change signals for competing candidate forcing mechanisms. Thus the multi-fingerprint method is a particularly useful technique for attributing an observed climate change to a proposed cause. Different model-predicted climate change signals are derived from three global warming simulations for the period 1880 to 2049. In one simulation, the forcing was by greenhouse gases only, while in the remaining two simulations the influence of aerosols was also included. The two dominant climate change signals derived from these simulations are optimized statistically by weighting the model-predicted climate change pattern towards low-noise directions. These optimized fingerprints are then applied to observed near surface temperature trends. The space-time structure of natural climate variability (needed to determine the signal-to-noise ratio) is estimated from several multi-century control simulations with different CGCMs and from instrumental data over the last 134 years. (orig.)

Sub-Saharan Northern African climate at the end of the twenty-first century: forcing factors and climate change processes

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Patricola, C.M. [Cornell University, Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Ithaca, NY (United States); Texas A and M University, Department of Atmospheric Sciences, College Station, TX (United States); Cook, K.H. [The University of Texas at Austin, Department of Geological Sciences, Jackson School of Geosciences, Austin, TX (United States)

2011-09-15

A regional climate model, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model, is forced with increased atmospheric CO{sub 2} and anomalous SSTs and lateral boundary conditions derived from nine coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models to produce an ensemble set of nine future climate simulations for northern Africa at the end of the twenty-first century. A well validated control simulation, agreement among ensemble members, and a physical understanding of the future climate change enhance confidence in the predictions. The regional model ensembles produce consistent precipitation projections over much of northern tropical Africa. A moisture budget analysis is used to identify the circulation changes that support future precipitation anomalies. The projected midsummer drought over the Guinean Coast region is related partly to weakened monsoon flow. Since the rainfall maximum demonstrates a southward bias in the control simulation in July-August, this may be indicative of future summer drying over the Sahel. Wetter conditions in late summer over the Sahel are associated with enhanced moisture transport by the West African westerly jet, a strengthening of the jet itself, and moisture transport from the Mediterranean. Severe drought in East Africa during August and September is accompanied by a weakened Indian monsoon and Somali jet. Simulations with projected and idealized SST forcing suggest that overall SST warming in part supports this regional model ensemble agreement, although changes in SST gradients are important over West Africa in spring and fall. Simulations which isolate the role of individual climate forcings suggest that the spatial distribution of the rainfall predictions is controlled by the anomalous SST and lateral boundary conditions, while CO{sub 2} forcing within the regional model domain plays an important secondary role and generally produces wetter conditions. (orig.)

Assessing the role of North Atlantic freshwater forcing in millennial scale climate variability: a tropical Atlantic perspective

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Dahl, Kristina A [Massachusetts Institute of Technology/Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution Joint Program, Woods Hole, MA (United States); Broccoli, Anthony J [Rutgers University, Department of Environmental Sciences, New Brunswick, NJ (United States); Stouffer, Ronald J [Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, NJ (United States)

2005-03-01

This study analyzes a three-member ensemble of experiments, in which 0.1 Sv of freshwater was applied to the North Atlantic for 100 years in order to address the potential for large freshwater inputs in the North Atlantic to drive abrupt climate change. The model used is the GFDL R30 coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation model. We focus in particular on the effects of this forcing on the tropical Atlantic region, which has been studied extensively by paleoclimatologists. In response to the freshwater forcing, North Atlantic meridional overturning circulation is reduced to roughly 40% by the end of the 100 year freshwater pulse. Consequently, the North Atlantic region cools by up to 8 C. The extreme cooling of the North Atlantic increases the pole-to-equator temperature gradient and requires more heat be provided to the high latitude Atlantic from the tropical Atlantic. To accommodate the increased heat requirement, the ITCZ shifts southward to allow for greater heat transport across the equator. Accompanying this southward ITCZ shift, the Northeast trade winds strengthen and precipitation patterns throughout the tropical Atlantic are altered. Specifically, precipitation in Northeast Brazil increases, and precipitation in Africa decreases slightly. In addition, we find that surface air temperatures warm over the tropical Atlantic and over Africa, but cool over northern South America. Sea-surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic warm slightly with larger warm anomalies developing in the thermocline. These responses are robust for each member of the ensemble, and have now been identified by a number of freshwater forcing studies using coupled OAGCMs. The model responses to freshwater forcing are generally smaller in magnitude, but have the same direction, as paleoclimate data from the Younger Dryas suggest. In certain cases, however, the model responses and the paleoclimate data directly contradict one another. Discrepancies between the model simulations

Evolution under changing climates: climatic niche stasis despite rapid evolution in a non-native plant.

Science.gov (United States)

Alexander, Jake M

2013-09-22

A topic of great current interest is the capacity of populations to adapt genetically to rapidly changing climates, for example by evolving the timing of life-history events, but this is challenging to address experimentally. I use a plant invasion as a model system to tackle this question by combining molecular markers, a common garden experiment and climatic niche modelling. This approach reveals that non-native Lactuca serriola originates primarily from Europe, a climatic subset of its native range, with low rates of admixture from Asia. It has rapidly refilled its climatic niche in the new range, associated with the evolution of flowering phenology to produce clines along climate gradients that mirror those across the native range. Consequently, some non-native plants have evolved development times and grow under climates more extreme than those found in Europe, but not among populations from the native range as a whole. This suggests that many plant populations can adapt rapidly to changed climatic conditions that are already within the climatic niche space occupied by the species elsewhere in its range, but that evolution to conditions outside of this range is more difficult. These findings can also help to explain the prevalence of niche conservatism among non-native species.

Understanding climate impacts on vegetation using a spatiotemporal non-linear Granger causality framework

Science.gov (United States)

Papagiannopoulou, Christina; Decubber, Stijn; Miralles, Diego; Demuzere, Matthias; Dorigo, Wouter; Verhoest, Niko; Waegeman, Willem

2017-04-01

-)causes vegetation dynamics in most regions globally. More specifically, water availability is the most dominant vegetation driver, being the dominant vegetation driver in 54% of the vegetated surface. Furthermore, our results show that precipitation and soil moisture have prolonged impacts on vegetation in semiarid regions, with up to 10% of additional explained variance on the vegetation dynamics occurring three months later. Finally, hydro-climatic extremes seem to have a remarkable impact on vegetation, since they also explain up to 10% of additional variance of vegetation in certain regions despite their infrequent occurrence. References [1] Papagiannopoulou, C., Miralles, D. G., Verhoest, N. E. C., Dorigo, W. A., and Waegeman, W.: A non-linear Granger causality framework to investigate climate-vegetation dynamics, Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., doi:10.5194/gmd-2016-266, in review, 2016.

Impacts of climate change and climate extremes on major crops productivity in China at a global warming of 1.5 and 2.0 °C

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, Yi; Zhang, Zhao; Tao, Fulu

2018-05-01

A new temperature goal of holding the increase in global average temperature well below 2 °C above pre-industrial levels and pursuing efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels has been established in the Paris Agreement, which calls for an understanding of climate risk under 1.5 and 2.0 °C warming scenarios. Here, we evaluated the effects of climate change on growth and productivity of three major crops (i.e. maize, wheat, rice) in China during 2106-2115 in warming scenarios of 1.5 and 2.0 °C using a method of ensemble simulation with well-validated Model to capture the Crop-Weather relationship over a Large Area (MCWLA) family crop models, their 10 sets of optimal crop model parameters and 70 climate projections from four global climate models. We presented the spatial patterns of changes in crop growth duration, crop yield, impacts of heat and drought stress, as well as crop yield variability and the probability of crop yield decrease. Results showed that climate change would have major negative impacts on crop production, particularly for wheat in north China, rice in south China and maize across the major cultivation areas, due to a decrease in crop growth duration and an increase in extreme events. By contrast, with moderate increases in temperature, solar radiation, precipitation and atmospheric CO2 concentration, agricultural climate resources such as light and thermal resources could be ameliorated, which would enhance canopy photosynthesis and consequently biomass accumulations and yields. The moderate climate change would slightly worsen the maize growth environment but would result in a much more appropriate growth environment for wheat and rice. As a result, wheat, rice and maize yields would change by +3.9 (+8.6), +4.1 (+9.4) and +0.2 % (-1.7 %), respectively, in a warming scenario of 1.5 °C (2.0 °C). In general, the warming scenarios would bring more opportunities than risks for crop development and food

Reconciliation of the Devils Hole climate record with orbital forcing.

Science.gov (United States)

Moseley, Gina E; Edwards, R Lawrence; Wendt, Kathleen A; Cheng, Hai; Dublyansky, Yuri; Lu, Yanbin; Boch, Ronny; Spötl, Christoph

2016-01-08

The driving force behind Quaternary glacial-interglacial cycles and much associated climate change is widely considered to be orbital forcing. However, previous versions of the iconic Devils Hole (Nevada) subaqueous calcite record exhibit shifts to interglacial values ~10,000 years before orbitally forced ice age terminations, and interglacial durations ~10,000 years longer than other estimates. Our measurements from Devils Hole 2 replicate virtually all aspects of the past 204,000 years of earlier records, except for the timing during terminations, and they lower the age of the record near Termination II by ~8000 years, removing both ~10,000-year anomalies. The shift to interglacial values now broadly coincides with the rise in boreal summer insolation, the marine termination, and the rise in atmospheric CO2, which is consistent with mechanisms ultimately tied to orbital forcing. Copyright © 2016, American Association for the Advancement of Science.

Climate change hotspots in the CMIP5 global climate model ensemble.

Science.gov (United States)

Diffenbaugh, Noah S; Giorgi, Filippo

2012-01-10

We use a statistical metric of multi-dimensional climate change to quantify the emergence of global climate change hotspots in the CMIP5 climate model ensemble. Our hotspot metric extends previous work through the inclusion of extreme seasonal temperature and precipitation, which exert critical influence on climate change impacts. The results identify areas of the Amazon, the Sahel and tropical West Africa, Indonesia, and the Tibetan Plateau as persistent regional climate change hotspots throughout the 21 st century of the RCP8.5 and RCP4.5 forcing pathways. In addition, areas of southern Africa, the Mediterranean, the Arctic, and Central America/western North America also emerge as prominent regional climate change hotspots in response to intermediate and high levels of forcing. Comparisons of different periods of the two forcing pathways suggest that the pattern of aggregate change is fairly robust to the level of global warming below approximately 2°C of global warming (relative to the late-20 th -century baseline), but not at the higher levels of global warming that occur in the late-21 st -century period of the RCP8.5 pathway, with areas of southern Africa, the Mediterranean, and the Arctic exhibiting particular intensification of relative aggregate climate change in response to high levels of forcing. Although specific impacts will clearly be shaped by the interaction of climate change with human and biological vulnerabilities, our identification of climate change hotspots can help to inform mitigation and adaptation decisions by quantifying the rate, magnitude and causes of the aggregate climate response in different parts of the world.

Organic condensation - a vital link connecting aerosol formation to climate forcing

Science.gov (United States)

Riipinen, I.; Pierce, J. R.; Yli-Juuti, T.; Nieminen, T.; Häkkinen, S.; Ehn, M.; Junninen, H.; Lehtipalo, K.; Petäjä, T.; Slowik, J.; Chang, R.; Shantz, N. C.; Abbatt, J.; Leaitch, W. R.; Kerminen, V.-M.; Worsnop, D. R.; Pandis, S. N.; Donahue, N. M.; Kulmala, M.

2011-01-01

Atmospheric aerosol particles influence global climate as well as impair air quality through their effects on atmospheric visibility and human health. Ultrafine (<100 nm) particles often dominate aerosol numbers, and nucleation of atmospheric vapors is an important source of these particles. To have climatic relevance, however, the freshly-nucleated particles need to grow in size. We combine observations from two continental sites (Egbert, Canada and Hyytiälä, Finland) to show that condensation of organic vapors is a crucial factor governing the lifetimes and climatic importance of the smallest atmospheric particles. We demonstrate that state-of-the-science organic gas-particle partitioning models fail to reproduce the observations, and propose a modeling approach that is consistent with the measurements. We demonstrate the large sensitivity of climatic forcing of atmospheric aerosols to these interactions between organic vapors and the smallest atmospheric nanoparticles - highlighting the need for representing this process in global climate models.

At a global scale, do climate change threatened species also face a greater number of non-climatic threats?

Science.gov (United States)

Fortini, Lucas B.; Dye, Kaipo

2017-01-01

For many species the threats of climate change occur in a context of multiple existing threats. Given the current focus of global change ecology in identifying and understanding species vulnerable to climate change, we performed a global analysis to characterize the multi-threat context for species threatened by climate change. Utilizing 30,053 species from the International Union for Conservation of Nature’s (IUCN) Red List of Threatened Species, we sought to evaluate if species threatened by climate change are more likely threatened by a greater number of non-climatic threats than species not threatened by climate change. Our results show that species threatened by climate change are generally impacted by 21% more non-climatic threats than species not threatened by climate change. Across all species, this pattern is related to IUCN risk status, where endangered species threatened by climate change face 33% more non-climatic threats than endangered species not threatened by climate change. With the clear challenges of assessing current and projected impacts of climate change on species and ecosystems, research often requires reductionist approaches that result in downplaying this multi-threat context. This cautionary note bears relevance beyond climate change threatened species as we also

Non-climatic factors and long-term, continental-scale changes in seasonally frozen ground

Science.gov (United States)

Shiklomanov, Nikolay I.

2012-03-01

surface and subsurface moisture regimes. As a result, the ground temperature and the related depth of freezing propagation are characterized by very high variability over short lateral distances. The data used for analysis by Frauenfeld and Zhang are single-point measurements obtained from a network of stations sparsely distributed over a very large spatial domain. Since no variability in edaphic conditions was considered, the presented results should be interpreted with some degree of caution. In addition, long-term soil observations at a single point using unautomated techniques unavoidably cause site disturbance, which may significantly modify the ground thermal regime over time. I would like to emphasize that the generalized continental trend in the depth of seasonal freezing presented by Frauenfeld and Zhang is very likely associated with changes in atmospheric forcing. However, any long-term continental trends of such a spatially heterogeneous and sensitive parameter as shallow soil temperature potentially include a significant non-climatic component. Although the single-point temperature data used by Frauenfeld and Zhang might not be sufficient to fully evaluate the localized effects on the overall trend, they are a terrific asset for further studies on climate and ground thermal regime. Detailed spatial assessment of the available ground temperature records over relatively homogeneous regions is a necessary next step in the assessment of climate-induced changes in seasonally frozen ground. Such an analysis is likely to show significant regional differences in long-term freeze propagation trends over Northern Eurasia and reveal region-specific sensitivities of the ground thermal regime to climatic forcing. References Brown R D and Robinson D A 2011 Northern hemisphere spring snow cover variability and change over 1922-2010 including an assessment of uncertainty Cryosphere 5 219-29 Callaghan T V, Tweedie C E and Webber P J 2011 Multi-decadal changes in tundra

Recent advances in understanding secondary organic aerosol: Implications for global climate forcing: Advances in Secondary Organic Aerosol

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Shrivastava, Manish [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland Washington USA; Cappa, Christopher D. [Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of California, Davis California USA; Fan, Jiwen [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland Washington USA; Goldstein, Allen H. [Department of Environmental Science, Policy and Management and Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of California, Berkeley California USA; Guenther, Alex B. [Department of Earth System Science, University of California, Irvine California USA; Jimenez, Jose L. [Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences and Department of Chemistry and Biochemistry, University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder Colorado USA; Kuang, Chongai [Brookhaven National Laboratory, Upton New York USA; Laskin, Alexander [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland Washington USA; Martin, Scot T. [School of Engineering and Applied Sciences and Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences, Harvard University, Cambridge Massachusetts USA; Ng, Nga Lee [School of Chemical and Biomolecular Engineering and School of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta Georgia USA; Petaja, Tuukka [Department of Physics, University of Helsinki, Helsinki Finland; Pierce, Jeffrey R. [Department of Atmospheric Science, Colorado State University, Fort Collins Colorado USA; Rasch, Philip J. [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland Washington USA; Roldin, Pontus [Department of Physics, Lund University, Lund Sweden; Seinfeld, John H. [Division of Chemistry and Chemical Engineering, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena California USA; Shilling, John [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland Washington USA; Smith, James N. [Department of Earth System Science, University of California, Irvine California USA; Thornton, Joel A. [Department of Atmospheric Sciences, University of Washington, Seattle Washington USA; Volkamer, Rainer [Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences and Department of Chemistry and Biochemistry, University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder Colorado USA; Wang, Jian [Brookhaven National Laboratory, Upton New York USA; Worsnop, Douglas R. [Aerodyne Research, Inc., Billerica Massachusetts USA; Zaveri, Rahul A. [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland Washington USA; Zelenyuk, Alla [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland Washington USA; Zhang, Qi [Department of Environmental Toxicology, University of California, Davis California USA

2017-06-01

Anthropogenic emissions and land-use changes have modified atmospheric aerosol concentrations and size distributions over time. Understanding pre-industrial conditions and changes in organic aerosol due to anthropogenic activities is important because these features 1) influence estimates of aerosol radiative forcing and 2) can confound estimates of the historical response of climate to increases in greenhouse gases (e.g. the ‘climate sensitivity’). Secondary organic aerosol (SOA), formed in the atmosphere by oxidation of organic gases, represents a major fraction of global submicron-sized atmospheric organic aerosol. Over the past decade, significant advances in understanding SOA properties and formation mechanisms have occurred through a combination of laboratory and field measurements, yet current climate models typically do not comprehensively include all important SOA-relevant processes. Therefore, major gaps exist at present between current measurement-based knowledge on the one hand and model implementation of organic aerosols on the other. The critical review herein summarizes some of the important developments in understanding SOA formation that could potentially have large impacts on our understanding of aerosol radiative forcing and climate. We highlight the importance of some recently discovered processes and properties that influence the growth of SOA particles to sizes relevant for clouds and radiative forcing, including: formation of extremely low-volatility organics in the gas-phase; isoprene epoxydiols (IEPOX) multi-phase chemistry; particle-phase oligomerization; and physical properties such as viscosity. In addition, this review also highlights some of the important processes that involve interactions between natural biogenic emissions and anthropogenic emissions, such as the role of sulfate and oxides of nitrogen (NOx) on SOA formation from biogenic volatile organic compounds. Studies that relate the observed evolution of organic aerosol

Climate engineering and the risk of rapid climate change

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ross, Andrew; Damon Matthews, H

2009-01-01

Recent research has highlighted risks associated with the use of climate engineering as a method of stabilizing global temperatures, including the possibility of rapid climate warming in the case of abrupt removal of engineered radiative forcing. In this study, we have used a simple climate model to estimate the likely range of temperature changes associated with implementation and removal of climate engineering. In the absence of climate engineering, maximum annual rates of warming ranged from 0.015 to 0.07 deg. C/year, depending on the model's climate sensitivity. Climate engineering resulted in much higher rates of warming, with the temperature change in the year following the removal of climate engineering ranging from 0.13 to 0.76 deg. C. High rates of temperature change were sustained for two decades following the removal of climate engineering; rates of change of 0.5 (0.3,0.1) deg. C/decade were exceeded over a 20 year period with 15% (75%, 100%) likelihood. Many ecosystems could be negatively affected by these rates of temperature change; our results suggest that climate engineering in the absence of deep emissions cuts could arguably constitute increased risk of dangerous anthropogenic interference in the climate system under the criteria laid out in the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change.

Timing and climate forcing of volcanic eruptions for the past 2,500 years.

Science.gov (United States)

Sigl, M; Winstrup, M; McConnell, J R; Welten, K C; Plunkett, G; Ludlow, F; Büntgen, U; Caffee, M; Chellman, N; Dahl-Jensen, D; Fischer, H; Kipfstuhl, S; Kostick, C; Maselli, O J; Mekhaldi, F; Mulvaney, R; Muscheler, R; Pasteris, D R; Pilcher, J R; Salzer, M; Schüpbach, S; Steffensen, J P; Vinther, B M; Woodruff, T E

2015-07-30

Volcanic eruptions contribute to climate variability, but quantifying these contributions has been limited by inconsistencies in the timing of atmospheric volcanic aerosol loading determined from ice cores and subsequent cooling from climate proxies such as tree rings. Here we resolve these inconsistencies and show that large eruptions in the tropics and high latitudes were primary drivers of interannual-to-decadal temperature variability in the Northern Hemisphere during the past 2,500 years. Our results are based on new records of atmospheric aerosol loading developed from high-resolution, multi-parameter measurements from an array of Greenland and Antarctic ice cores as well as distinctive age markers to constrain chronologies. Overall, cooling was proportional to the magnitude of volcanic forcing and persisted for up to ten years after some of the largest eruptive episodes. Our revised timescale more firmly implicates volcanic eruptions as catalysts in the major sixth-century pandemics, famines, and socioeconomic disruptions in Eurasia and Mesoamerica while allowing multi-millennium quantification of climate response to volcanic forcing.

Attribution of soil moisture dynamics - Initial conditions vs. atmospheric forcing and the role of climate change

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Orth, Rene; Seneviratne, Sonia I.

2014-05-01

The world's climate has started to change more quickly in recent decades and a stronger and faster shift is expected in the future. Even if the public perception is mostly limited to a widespread warming, climate change is a complex phenomenon impacting numerous variables of the climate system in different ways, also depending on time and location. Furthermore, extreme events may change more drastically than the mean climate. There is growing evidence that climate change is mostly man-made. However, it is still a matter of debate to which extent changes of the mean climate but also of particular (extreme) events are due to human impact. These questions are addressed by the growing science of climate attribution. Pointing out the anthropogenic influence on extreme events such as the 2010 Russian heatwave or the 2002 floods in Central Europe may help to support adaptation to climate change. This study investigates soil moisture in Europe in the context of climate change, because of its role as a key variable of the land-climate system and its practical importance for instance to agriculture. To derive soil moisture dynamics from 1984-2007 we use E-OBS forcing data together with SRB radiation data and employ an observation-based approach where soil moisture is computed from a water balance equation in which runoff (normalized with precipitation) and ET (normalized with net radiation) are simple functions of soil moisture. The constant runoff function is prescribed for the whole continent, and the ET function is calibrated using temperature data. After performing a validation of the inferred soil moisture data we use it in order to analyze changes in the likelihood of droughts. Our results show increased drought risk especially in north-eastern Europe and the Mediterranean, whereby the probability of extreme droughts increases stronger as for mild dryness episodes. To assess the potential for drought forecasting we furthermore study the importance of the initial

Regional aerosol emissions and temperature response: Local and remote climate impacts of regional aerosol forcing

Science.gov (United States)

Lewinschal, Anna; Ekman, Annica; Hansson, Hans-Christen

2017-04-01

Emissions of anthropogenic aerosols vary substantially over the globe and the short atmospheric residence time of aerosols leads to a highly uneven radiative forcing distribution, both spatially and temporally. Regional aerosol radiative forcing can, nevertheless, exert a large influence on the temperature field away from the forcing region through changes in heat transport or the atmospheric or ocean circulation. Moreover, the global temperature response distribution to aerosol forcing may vary depending on the geographical location of the forcing. In other words, the climate sensitivity in one region can vary depending on the location of the forcing. The surface temperature distribution response to changes in sulphate aerosol forcing caused by sulphur dioxide (SO2) emission perturbations in four different regions is investigated using the Norwegian Earth System Model (NorESM). The four regions, Europe, North America, East and South Asia, are all regions with historically high aerosol emissions and are relevant from both an air-quality and climate policy perspective. All emission perturbations are defined relative to the year 2000 emissions provided for the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5. The global mean temperature change per unit SO2 emission change is similar for all four regions for similar magnitudes of emissions changes. However, the global temperature change per unit SO2 emission in simulations where regional SO2 emission were removed is substantially higher than that obtained in simulations where regional SO2 emissions were increased. Thus, the climate sensitivity to regional SO2 emissions perturbations depends on the magnitude of the emission perturbation in NorESM. On regional scale, on the other hand, the emission perturbations in different geographical locations lead to different regional temperature responses, both locally and in remote regions. The results from the model simulations are used to construct regional temperature potential

The radiative forcing potential of different climate geoengineering options

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

T. M. Lenton

2009-08-01

Full Text Available Climate geoengineering proposals seek to rectify the Earth's current and potential future radiative imbalance, either by reducing the absorption of incoming solar (shortwave radiation, or by removing CO₂ from the atmosphere and transferring it to long-lived reservoirs, thus increasing outgoing longwave radiation. A fundamental criterion for evaluating geoengineering options is their climate cooling effectiveness, which we quantify here in terms of radiative forcing potential. We use a simple analytical approach, based on energy balance considerations and pulse response functions for the decay of CO₂ perturbations. This aids transparency compared to calculations with complex numerical models, but is not intended to be definitive. It allows us to compare the relative effectiveness of a range of proposals. We consider geoengineering options as additional to large reductions in CO₂ emissions. By 2050, some land carbon cycle geoengineering options could be of comparable magnitude to mitigation "wedges", but only stratospheric aerosol injections, albedo enhancement of marine stratocumulus clouds, or sunshades in space have the potential to cool the climate back toward its pre-industrial state. Strong mitigation, combined with global-scale air capture and storage, afforestation, and bio-char production, i.e. enhanced CO₂ sinks, might be able to bring CO₂ back to its pre-industrial level by 2100, thus removing the need for other geoengineering. Alternatively, strong mitigation stabilising CO₂ at 500 ppm, combined with geoengineered increases in the albedo of marine stratiform clouds, grasslands, croplands and human settlements might achieve a patchy cancellation of radiative forcing. Ocean fertilisation options are only worthwhile if sustained on a millennial timescale and phosphorus addition may have greater long-term potential than iron or nitrogen fertilisation. Enhancing ocean

Long-term climate monitoring by the global climate observing system: report of breakout group 1 - climate forcings and feedbacks

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Miller, C.; Bretherton, F.

1995-01-01

The assignment for Breakout Group A was to re-visit and expand upon the plenary session discussion on climate forcings and feedbacks and to develop a set of recommendations for each of the science disciplines or activities covered within this breakout category. Working guidelines for the group included identifying: (1) what has to be done; (2) why it has to be done, i.e. who is the customer? (3) the process for remedying deficiencies and, specifically, how to leverage the activities at operational centers; and (4) priorities (recognizing that it is premature to distinguish between major systems). The science ares addressed included: greenhouse gases (GHGs); radiation budget; water vapor; aerosols; clouds; precipitation; tropospheric ozone; and solar radiation. The role of climate satellites was also noted

Meeting the Radiative Forcing Targets of the Representative Concentration Pathways with Agricultural Climate Impacts

Science.gov (United States)

Kyle, P.; Müller, C.; Calvin, K. V.; Thomson, A. M.

2013-12-01

The Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) have formed the basis for much of the current scientific understanding of future climate change impacts and mitigation. However, the emissions scenarios underlying the RCPs were produced by integrated assessment models that did not include impacts of future climate change on the modeled evolution of the agricultural and energy systems. Given the prominent role of bioenergy in greenhouse gas emissions mitigation, and given the importance of land-use-related emissions in determining future atmospheric CO2 concentrations, it is possible that agricultural climate impacts may cause significant changes to the means and costs of mitigating greenhouse gas emissions. This study builds on several international modeling exercises aimed at improving understanding of climate change impacts--CMIP-5 and ISI-MIP--that have generated global gridded climate impacts on yields of major agricultural crops in each of the four RCPs. We use the climate outcomes from the HadGEM2-ES climate model, and the agricultural yield outcomes from the LPJmL crop growth model to inform inputs to the GCAM integrated assessment model, allowing analysis of how agricultural climate impacts may affect the long-term global and regional strategies for achieving the greenhouse gas concentration pathways of the RCPs. Our results indicate that for this combination of models and emissions scenarios, strongly negative climate impacts on several major commodity classes--prominently cereals and oil seeds, and particularly in the high-radiative-forcing RCPs--lead to a long-term increase in cropland and therefore land-use-related CO2 emissions. All else equal, this increases the emissions mitigation burden on the rest of the system, and therefore increases total net costs of emissions mitigation. However, the future climate change impacts on C4 bioenergy crops tend to be positive, limiting the shock of agricultural climate impacts on the modeled energy supply and

Force-dominated non-equilibrium oxidation kinetics of tantalum

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kar, Prasenjit; Wang, Ke; Liang, Hong

2008-01-01

Using a combined electrochemical and mechanical manipulation technique, we compared the equilibrium and non-equilibrium oxidation processes and states of tantalum. Experimentally, a setup was developed with an electrochemical system attached to a sliding mechanical configuration capable of friction force measurement. The surface chemistry of a sliding surface, i.e., tantalum, was modified through the electrolyte. The mechanically applied force was fixed and the dynamics of the surface was monitored in situ through a force sensor. The formation of non-equilibrium oxidation states of tantalum was found in oxidation limiting environment of acetic acid. An oxidative environment of deionized water saturated with KCl was used as comparison. We proposed a modified Arrhenius-Eyring equation in which the mechanical factor was considered. We found that the mechanical energy induced the non-stable-state reactions leading to metastable oxidation states of tantalum. This equation can be used to predict mechanochemical reactions that are important in many industrial applications

Cosmological bounds on non-Abelian dark forces

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Forestell, Lindsay; Morrissey, David E.; Sigurdson, Kris

2018-04-01

Non-Abelian dark gauge forces that do not couple directly to ordinary matter may be realized in nature. The minimal form of such a dark force is a pure Yang-Mills theory. If the dark sector is reheated in the early Universe, it will be realized as a set of dark gluons at high temperatures and as a collection of dark glueballs at lower temperatures, with a cosmological phase transition from one form to the other. Despite being dark, the gauge fields of the new force can connect indirectly to the standard model through nonrenormalizable operators. These operators will transfer energy between the dark and visible sectors, and they allow some or all of the dark glueballs to decay. In this work we investigate the cosmological evolution and decays of dark glueballs in the presence of connector operators to the standard model. Dark glueball decays can modify cosmological and astrophysical observables, and we use these considerations to put very strong limits on the existence of pure non-Abelian dark forces. On the other hand, if one or more of the dark glueballs are stable, we find that they can potentially make up the dark matter of the Universe.

Importance of Preserving Cross-correlation in developing Statistically Downscaled Climate Forcings and in estimating Land-surface Fluxes and States

Science.gov (United States)

Das Bhowmik, R.; Arumugam, S.

2015-12-01

Multivariate downscaling techniques exhibited superiority over univariate regression schemes in terms of preserving cross-correlations between multiple variables- precipitation and temperature - from GCMs. This study focuses on two aspects: (a) develop an analytical solutions on estimating biases in cross-correlations from univariate downscaling approaches and (b) quantify the uncertainty in land-surface states and fluxes due to biases in cross-correlations in downscaled climate forcings. Both these aspects are evaluated using climate forcings available from both historical climate simulations and CMIP5 hindcasts over the entire US. The analytical solution basically relates the univariate regression parameters, co-efficient of determination of regression and the co-variance ratio between GCM and downscaled values. The analytical solutions are compared with the downscaled univariate forcings by choosing the desired p-value (Type-1 error) in preserving the observed cross-correlation. . For quantifying the impacts of biases on cross-correlation on estimating streamflow and groundwater, we corrupt the downscaled climate forcings with different cross-correlation structure.

Carbonaceous aerosols over China--review of observations, emissions, and climate forcing.

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Linpeng; Zhou, Xuehua; Ma, Yujie; Cao, Zhaoyu; Wu, Ruidong; Wang, Wenxing

2016-01-01

Carbonaceous aerosols have been attracting attention due to the influence on visibility, air quality, and regional climate. Statistical analyses based on concentration levels, spatial-temporal variations, correlations, and organic carbon (OC) to element carbon (EC) ratios from published data of OC and EC in particulate matter (PM2.5 and PM10) were carried out in order to give a carbonaceous aerosol profile in China. The results showed maxima for OC of 29.5 ± 18.2 μg C m(-3) and for EC of 8.4 ± 6.3 μg C m(-3) in winter and minima for OC of 12.9 ± 7.7 μg C m(-3) in summer and for EC of 4.6 ± 2.8 μg C m(-3) in spring. In addition, OC and EC both had higher concentrations in urban than those in rural sites. Carbonaceous aerosol levels in China are about three to seven times higher compared to those in the USA and Europe. OC and EC occupied 20 ± 6 and 7 ± 3% of PM2.5 mass and 17 ± 7 and 5 ± 3% of PM10 mass, respectively, implying that carbonaceous aerosols are the main component of PM, especially OC. Secondary organic carbon (SOC) was a significant portion of PM and contributed 41 ± 26% to OC and 8 ± 6% to PM2.5 mass. The OC/EC ratio was 3.63 ± 1.73, which, along with the good correlation between OC and EC and the OC to EC slope of 2.29, signifies that coal combustion and/or vehicular exhaust is the dominated carbonaceous aerosol source in China. These provide a primary observation-based understanding of carbonaceous aerosol pollution in China and have a great significance in improving the emission inventory and climate forcing evaluation.

Varying Influence of Different Forcings on the Indo-Pacific Warm Pool Climate

Science.gov (United States)

Mohtadi, M.; Huang, E.; Hollstein, M.; Chen, Y.; Schefuß, E.; Rosenthal, Y.; Prange, M.; Oppo, D.; Liu, J.; Steinke, S.; Martinez-Mendez, G.; Tian, J.; Moffa-Sanchez, P.; Lückge, A.

2017-12-01

Proxy records of rainfall in marine archives from the eastern and western parts of the Indo-Pacific Warm Pool (IPWP) vary at precessional band and suggest a dominant role of orbital forcing by modulating monsoon rainfall and the position of the Inter Tropical Convergence Zone. Rainfall changes recorded in marine archives from the northern South China Sea reveal a more complex history. They are largely consistent with those recorded in the Chinese cave speleothems during glacial periods, but show opposite changes during interglacial peaks that coincide with strong Northern Hemisphere summer insolation maxima. During glacial periods, the establishment of massive Northern Hemisphere ice sheets and the exposure of broad continental shelves in East and Southeast Asia alter the large-scale routes and amounts of water vapor transport onto land relative to interglacials. Precipitation over China during glacials varies at precessional band and is dominated by water vapor transport from the nearby tropical and northwest Pacific, resulting in consistent changes in precipitation over large areas. In the absence of ice forcing during peak interglacials with a strong summer insolation, the low-level southerly monsoonal winds mainly of the Indian Ocean origin penetrate further landward and rainout along their path over China. Subsurface temperatures from the IPWP lack changes on glacial-interglacial timescales but follow the obliquity cycle, and suggest that obliquity-paced climate variations at mid-latitudes remotely control subsurface temperatures in the IPWP. Temperature and rainfall in the IPWP respond primarily to abrupt climate changes in the North Atlantic on millennial timescales, and to ENSO and solar forcing on interannual to decadal timescales. In summary, results from marine records reveal that the IPWP climate is sensitive to changes in spatial and temporal distribution of heat by many types of forcing, the influence of which seems to vary in time and space.

Linking the uncertainty of low frequency variability in tropical forcing in regional climate change

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Forest, Chris E. [Pennsylvania State Univ., University Park, PA (United States). Dept. of Meteorology; Barsugli, Joseph J. [Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO (United States). CIRES; Li, Wei [Pennsylvania State Univ., University Park, PA (United States). Dept. of Meteorology

2015-02-20

The project utilizes multiple atmospheric general circulation models (AGCMs) to examine the regional climate sensitivity to tropical sea surface temperature forcing through a series of ensemble experiments. The overall goal for this work is to use the global teleconnection operator (GTO) as a metric to assess the impact of model structural differences on the uncertainties in regional climate variability.

Identification of 6H-SiC polar faces with pull-off force of atomic force microscopy

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Gan, Di; Song, Youting; Yang, Junwei; Chen, Hongxiang [Research & development Center for Functional Crystals, Beijing National Laboratory for Condensed Matter Physics, Institute of Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190 (China); Guo, Liwei, E-mail: lwguo@iphy.ac.cn [Research & development Center for Functional Crystals, Beijing National Laboratory for Condensed Matter Physics, Institute of Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190 (China); Chen, Xiaolong, E-mail: chenx29@iphy.ac.cn [Research & development Center for Functional Crystals, Beijing National Laboratory for Condensed Matter Physics, Institute of Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190 (China); Collaborative Innovation Center of Quantum Matter, Beijing (China)

2016-12-30

Highlights: • A new method is proposed and demonstrated to distinguish the polar faces of 6H-SiC by pull-off forces which are clearly different on the Si-face and the C-face of 6H-SiC. • The reliability of this method is confirmed on 6H-SiC samples treated with different surface processing procedures. • The essence of different pull-off forces on different polar faces of 6H-SiC is that the surface energies between them are obviously different. • Theoretical calculations are consistent with our experimental results. - Abstract: Distinguishing SiC (0001) Si-face from SiC (000-1) C-face without any damages is extremely important because the two polar faces have different physical and chemical properties which seriously influence the quality of a homoepitaxy or heteroepitaxy thin film on it. Here, a convenient and nondestructive detection method is developed to distinguish the Si-face and C-face of a (0001) oriented SiC wafer by employing a pull-off force measurement using atomic force microscopy. It is found that the pull-off force from a Si-face of 6H-SiC is about two times of that from a C-face, no matter it is a two-face chemical mechanical polishing or etched 6H-SiC wafer. The method developed here is suitable to identify polar faces of materials only if the two polar faces having different surface energy.

Frequency-dependence of the slow force response.

Science.gov (United States)

von Lewinski, Dirk; Zhu, Danan; Khafaga, Mounir; Kockskamper, Jens; Maier, Lars S; Hasenfuss, Gerd; Pieske, Burkert

2008-05-01

Stretch induces biphasic inotropic effects in mammalian myocardium. A delayed component (slow force response, SFR) has been demonstrated in various species, however, experimental conditions varied and the underlying mechanisms are controversial. The physiological relevance of the SFR is poorly understood. Experiments were performed in ventricular muscle strips from failing human hearts and non-failing rabbit hearts. Upon stretch, twitch force was assessed at basal conditions (1 Hz, 37 degrees C) and after changing stimulation frequency with and without blockade of the Na+/H+-exchanger-1 (NHE1) or reverse-mode Na+/Ca2+-exchange (NCX). Action potential duration (APD) was assessed using floating electrodes. Low stimulation rates (0.2 Hz) potentiated and higher stimulation rates (2 and 3 Hz) reduced the SFR. The extent of SFR inhibition by NHE1 or NCX inhibition was not affected by stimulation rate. APD decreased at 0.2 Hz but was not altered at higher stimulation rates. The data demonstrate frequency-dependence of the SFR with greater positive inotropic effects at lower stimulation rates. Subcellular mechanisms underlying the SFR are not fundamentally affected by stimulation rate. The SFR may have more pronounced physiological effects at lower heart rates.

Easy Volcanic Aerosol (EVA v1.0: an idealized forcing generator for climate simulations

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

M. Toohey

2016-11-01

Full Text Available Stratospheric sulfate aerosols from volcanic eruptions have a significant impact on the Earth's climate. To include the effects of volcanic eruptions in climate model simulations, the Easy Volcanic Aerosol (EVA forcing generator provides stratospheric aerosol optical properties as a function of time, latitude, height, and wavelength for a given input list of volcanic eruption attributes. EVA is based on a parameterized three-box model of stratospheric transport and simple scaling relationships used to derive mid-visible (550 nm aerosol optical depth and aerosol effective radius from stratospheric sulfate mass. Precalculated look-up tables computed from Mie theory are used to produce wavelength-dependent aerosol extinction, single scattering albedo, and scattering asymmetry factor values. The structural form of EVA and the tuning of its parameters are chosen to produce best agreement with the satellite-based reconstruction of stratospheric aerosol properties following the 1991 Pinatubo eruption, and with prior millennial-timescale forcing reconstructions, including the 1815 eruption of Tambora. EVA can be used to produce volcanic forcing for climate models which is based on recent observations and physical understanding but internally self-consistent over any timescale of choice. In addition, EVA is constructed so as to allow for easy modification of different aspects of aerosol properties, in order to be used in model experiments to help advance understanding of what aspects of the volcanic aerosol are important for the climate system.

At a global scale, do climate change threatened species also face a greater number of non-climatic threats?

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Lucas B. Fortini

2017-07-01

Full Text Available For many species the threats of climate change occur in a context of multiple existing threats. Given the current focus of global change ecology in identifying and understanding species vulnerable to climate change, we performed a global analysis to characterize the multi-threat context for species threatened by climate change. Utilizing 30,053 species from the International Union for Conservation of Nature’s (IUCN Red List of Threatened Species, we sought to evaluate if species threatened by climate change are more likely threatened by a greater number of non-climatic threats than species not threatened by climate change. Our results show that species threatened by climate change are generally impacted by 21% more non-climatic threats than species not threatened by climate change. Across all species, this pattern is related to IUCN risk status, where endangered species threatened by climate change face 33% more non-climatic threats than endangered species not threatened by climate change. With the clear challenges of assessing current and projected impacts of climate change on species and ecosystems, research often requires reductionist approaches that result in downplaying this multi-threat context. This cautionary note bears relevance beyond climate change threatened species as we also found other (but not all anthropogenic threats are also similarly associated with more threats. Our findings serve as a reminder that ecological research should seriously consider these potential threat interactions, especially for species under elevated conservation concern.

Formation and release of non-extractable 14C-Dicamba residues in soil under sterile and non-sterile regimes

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gevao, Bondi; Jones, Kevin C.; Semple, Kirk T.

2005-01-01

The role of native soil microorganisms in the formation and release of non-extractable 14 C-residues, previously treated with 14 C-Dicamba, was investigated to examine their significance to the longer-term environmental effects on non-extractable pesticide residues. A 90 d study compared the fate of Dicamba under sterile and non-sterile regimes. In addition, soils were aged for 30 d and repeatedly extracted with a 0.01 M CaCl 2 solution, to an extraction end point, to produce non-extractable residues. The extracted soil containing non-extractable residues was mixed with clean soil that had been freshly spiked with non-labeled Dicamba at 0.2 mg kg -1 to increase the bulk volume of the soil and stimulate microbial activity. Sub-samples were then introduced into microcosms to compare the extent of microbially facilitated release and mineralisation with release rates in sterile microcosms. The results show that microorganisms play a significant role in the formation and release of non-extractable Dicamba residues. The release of 14 C-activity in sterile microcosms was linked to physical mixing of the extracted soil with field soil prior to the beginning of the incubations. The released 14 C-activity may be further mineralized, reincorporated into humus, or taken up by plants or other soil inhabiting biota

Radiative forcing estimates of sulfate aerosol in coupled climate-chemistry models with emphasis on the role of the temporal variability

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

C. Déandreis

2012-06-01

Full Text Available This paper describes the impact on the sulfate aerosol radiative effects of coupling the radiative code of a global circulation model with a chemistry-aerosol module. With this coupling, temporal variations of sulfate aerosol concentrations influence the estimate of aerosol radiative impacts. Effects of this coupling have been assessed on net fluxes, radiative forcing and temperature for the direct and first indirect effects of sulfate.

The direct effect respond almost linearly to rapid changes in concentrations whereas the first indirect effect shows a strong non-linearity. In particular, sulfate temporal variability causes a modification of the short wave net fluxes at the top of the atmosphere of +0.24 and +0.22 W m⁻² for the present and preindustrial periods, respectively. This change is small compared to the value of the net flux at the top of the atmosphere (about 240 W m⁻². The effect is more important in regions with low-level clouds and intermediate sulfate aerosol concentrations (from 0.1 to 0.8 μg (SO₄ m⁻³ in our model.

The computation of the aerosol direct radiative forcing is quite straightforward and the temporal variability has little effect on its mean value. In contrast, quantifying the first indirect radiative forcing requires tackling technical issues first. We show that the preindustrial sulfate concentrations have to be calculated with the same meteorological trajectory used for computing the present ones. If this condition is not satisfied, it introduces an error on the estimation of the first indirect radiative forcing. Solutions are proposed to assess radiative forcing properly. In the reference method, the coupling between chemistry and climate results in a global average increase of 8% in the first indirect radiative forcing. This change reaches 50% in the most sensitive regions. However, the reference method is not suited to run long climate

The influence of cirrus cloud-radiative forcing on climate and climate sensitivity in a general circulation model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lohmann, U.; Roeckner, E.

1994-01-01

Six numerical experiments have been performed with a general circulation model (GCM) to study the influence of high-level cirrus clouds and global sea surface temperature (SST) perturbations on climate and climate sensitivity. The GCM used in this investigation is the third-generation ECHAM3 model developed jointly by the Max-Planck-Institute for Meteorology and the University of Hamburg. It is shown that the model is able to reproduce many features of the observed cloud-radiative forcing with considerable skill, such as the annual mean distribution, the response to seasonal forcing and the response to observed SST variations in the equatorial Pacific. In addition to a reference experiment where the cirrus emissivity is computed as a function of the cloud water content, two sensitivity experiments have been performed in which the cirrus emissivity is either set to zero everywhere above 400 hPa ('transparent cirrus') or set to one ('black cirrus'). These three experiments are repeated identically, except for prescribing a globally uniform SST warming of 4 K. (orig.)

Landscape dynamics and different climate forcings in eastern Mongolia

Science.gov (United States)

Moore, N. J.; John, R.; Chen, J.

2017-12-01

Central and Eastern Mongolia have witnessed significant decreasing greening from the period 2000-2012. This decline may be partially, directly due to increased grazing pressure from livestock. Our study objective is to understand how landscape change may be altering heat fluxes and precipitation. Using the RAMS 6.0 regional climate model, we simulated the spatiotemporal changes in growing-season precipitation and atmospheric behavior under: (a) observed vegetation, and (b) aggressively reduced vegetation, to prognose likely locations and changes of the regional climate that might have resulted from land cover changes (2001-2010). We simulated a dzud/drought year (using forcing from 2001) and a wet year (using forcing from 2003). Our simulations show increased cloud cover and reduced daily temperature ranges for northeastern Mongolia where forest growth has expanded. Localized differences of 60 W/m2 of sensible heat flux were found when degraded landscape cover replaced older, more dense cover. More importantly, the overall trend towards reduced vegetation cover was responsible for higher screen height temperatures and reduced soil moisture throughout much of the domain, together with a shift of moisture southward of Inner Mongolia. Thus, even with improved chances for convection, soil moisture reductions of 5-10% would lead to overall even drier conditions. In the steppe regions around the Gobi desert, more complex patterns are evident and landscape drivers are less clear.

Climate forcing of an emerging pathogenic fungus across a montane multi-host community.

Science.gov (United States)

Clare, Frances C; Halder, Julia B; Daniel, Olivia; Bielby, Jon; Semenov, Mikhail A; Jombart, Thibaut; Loyau, Adeline; Schmeller, Dirk S; Cunningham, Andrew A; Rowcliffe, Marcus; Garner, Trenton W J; Bosch, Jaime; Fisher, Matthew C

2016-12-05

Changes in the timings of seasonality as a result of anthropogenic climate change are predicted to occur over the coming decades. While this is expected to have widespread impacts on the dynamics of infectious disease through environmental forcing, empirical data are lacking. Here, we investigated whether seasonality, specifically the timing of spring ice-thaw, affected susceptibility to infection by the emerging pathogenic fungus Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd) across a montane community of amphibians that are suffering declines and extirpations as a consequence of this infection. We found a robust temporal association between the timing of the spring thaw and Bd infection in two host species, where we show that an early onset of spring forced high prevalences of infection. A third highly susceptible species (the midwife toad, Alytes obstetricans) maintained a high prevalence of infection independent of time of spring thaw. Our data show that perennially overwintering midwife toad larvae may act as a year-round reservoir of infection with variation in time of spring thaw determining the extent to which infection spills over into sympatric species. We used future temperature projections based on global climate models to demonstrate that the timing of spring thaw in this region will advance markedly by the 2050s, indicating that climate change will further force the severity of infection. Our findings on the effect of annual variability on multi-host infection dynamics show that the community-level impact of fungal infectious disease on biodiversity will need to be re-evaluated in the face of climate change.This article is part of the themed issue 'Tackling emerging fungal threats to animal health, food security and ecosystem resilience'. © 2016 The Authors.

RETRAN02/MOD02: an outside perspective

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wei, T.Y.C.

1984-03-01

ANL recently participated in a review of the RETRAN02/MOD02 code to determine the range of accuracy, the reliability and the reproducibility of results obtained with the code for Chapter 15 non-LOCA system transients for both pressurized water reactors (PWRs) and boiling water reactors (BWRs). This paper summarizes the technical aspects of that review

Future climate and surface mass balance of Svalbard glaciers in an RCP8.5 climate scenario: a study with the regional climate model MAR forced by MIROC5

Science.gov (United States)

Lang, C.; Fettweis, X.; Erpicum, M.

2015-05-01

We have performed a future projection of the climate and surface mass balance (SMB) of Svalbard with the MAR (Modèle Atmosphérique Régional) regional climate model forced by MIROC5 (Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate), following the RCP8.5 scenario at a spatial resolution of 10 km. MAR predicts a similar evolution of increasing surface melt everywhere in Svalbard followed by a sudden acceleration of melt around 2050, with a larger melt increase in the south compared to the north of the archipelago. This melt acceleration around 2050 is mainly driven by the albedo-melt feedback associated with the expansion of the ablation/bare ice zone. This effect is dampened in part as the solar radiation itself is projected to decrease due to a cloudiness increase. The near-surface temperature is projected to increase more in winter than in summer as the temperature is already close to 0 °C in summer. The model also projects a stronger winter west-to-east temperature gradient, related to the large decrease of sea ice cover around Svalbard. By 2085, SMB is projected to become negative over all of Svalbard's glaciated regions, leading to the rapid degradation of the firn layer.

Climate forcing and infectious disease transmission in urban landscapes: integrating demographic and socioeconomic heterogeneity.

Science.gov (United States)

Santos-Vega, Mauricio; Martinez, Pamela P; Pascual, Mercedes

2016-10-01

Urbanization and climate change are the two major environmental challenges of the 21st century. The dramatic expansion of cities around the world creates new conditions for the spread, surveillance, and control of infectious diseases. In particular, urban growth generates pronounced spatial heterogeneity within cities, which can modulate the effect of climate factors at local spatial scales in large urban environments. Importantly, the interaction between environmental forcing and socioeconomic heterogeneity at local scales remains an open area in infectious disease dynamics, especially for urban landscapes of the developing world. A quantitative and conceptual framework on urban health with a focus on infectious diseases would benefit from integrating aspects of climate forcing, population density, and level of wealth. In this paper, we review what is known about these drivers acting independently and jointly on urban infectious diseases; we then outline elements that are missing and would contribute to building such a framework. © 2016 New York Academy of Sciences.

Impacts of climate change and climate extremes on major crops productivity in China at a global warming of 1.5 and 2.0 °C

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Y. Chen

2018-05-01

Full Text Available A new temperature goal of holding the increase in global average temperature well below 2 °C above pre-industrial levels and pursuing efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels has been established in the Paris Agreement, which calls for an understanding of climate risk under 1.5 and 2.0 °C warming scenarios. Here, we evaluated the effects of climate change on growth and productivity of three major crops (i.e. maize, wheat, rice in China during 2106–2115 in warming scenarios of 1.5 and 2.0 °C using a method of ensemble simulation with well-validated Model to capture the Crop–Weather relationship over a Large Area (MCWLA family crop models, their 10 sets of optimal crop model parameters and 70 climate projections from four global climate models. We presented the spatial patterns of changes in crop growth duration, crop yield, impacts of heat and drought stress, as well as crop yield variability and the probability of crop yield decrease. Results showed that climate change would have major negative impacts on crop production, particularly for wheat in north China, rice in south China and maize across the major cultivation areas, due to a decrease in crop growth duration and an increase in extreme events. By contrast, with moderate increases in temperature, solar radiation, precipitation and atmospheric CO2 concentration, agricultural climate resources such as light and thermal resources could be ameliorated, which would enhance canopy photosynthesis and consequently biomass accumulations and yields. The moderate climate change would slightly worsen the maize growth environment but would result in a much more appropriate growth environment for wheat and rice. As a result, wheat, rice and maize yields would change by +3.9 (+8.6, +4.1 (+9.4 and +0.2 % (−1.7 %, respectively, in a warming scenario of 1.5 °C (2.0 °C. In general, the warming scenarios would bring more opportunities than

Physical and perceptual cooling with beverages to increase cycle performance in a tropical climate.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Florence Riera

Full Text Available This study compares the effects of neutral temperature, cold and ice-slush beverages, with and without 0.5% menthol on cycling performance, core temperature (Tco and stress responses in a tropical climate (hot and humid conditions.Twelve trained male cyclists/triathletes completed six 20-km exercise trials against the clock in 30.7°C±0.8°C and 78%±0.03% relative humidity. Before and after warm-up, and before exercise and every 5 km during exercise, athletes drank 190 mL of either aromatized (i.e., with 0.5 mL of menthol (5 gr/L or a non-aromatized beverage (neutral temperature: 23°C±0.1°C, cold: 3°C±0.1°C, or ice-slush: -1°C±0.7°C. During the trials, heart rate (HR was continuously monitored, whereas core temperature (Tco, thermal comfort (TC, thermal sensation (TS and rate of perceived exertion (RPE were measured before and after warm-up, every 5 km of exercise, and at the end of exercise and after recovery.Both the beverage aroma (P<0.02 and beverage temperature (P<0.02 had significant and positive effects on performance, which was considerably better with ice-slush than with a neutral temperature beverage, whatever the aroma (P<0.002, and with menthol vs non-menthol (P<0.02. The best performances were obtained with ice-slush/menthol and cold/menthol, as opposed to neutral/menthol. No differences were noted in HR and Tco between trials.Cold water or ice-slush with menthol aroma seems to be the most effective beverage for endurance exercise in a tropical climate. Further studies are needed to explore its effects in field competition.

Air pollution and climate-forcing impacts of a global hydrogen economy.

Science.gov (United States)

Schultz, Martin G; Diehl, Thomas; Brasseur, Guy P; Zittel, Werner

2003-10-24

If today's surface traffic fleet were powered entirely by hydrogen fuel cell technology, anthropogenic emissions of the ozone precursors nitrogen oxide (NOx) and carbon monoxide could be reduced by up to 50%, leading to significant improvements in air quality throughout the Northern Hemisphere. Model simulations of such a scenario predict a decrease in global OH and an increased lifetime of methane, caused primarily by the reduction of the NOx emissions. The sign of the change in climate forcing caused by carbon dioxide and methane depends on the technology used to generate the molecular hydrogen. A possible rise in atmospheric hydrogen concentrations is unlikely to cause significant perturbations of the climate system.

The ACPI Climate Change Simulations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dai, A.; Washington, W.M.; Meehl, G.A.; Bettge, T.W.; Strand, W.G.

2004-01-01

The Parallel Climate Model (PCM) has been used in the Accelerated Climate Prediction Initiative (ACPI) Program to simulate the global climate response to projected CO2, sulfate, and other greenhouse gas forcing under a business-as-usual emissions scenario during the 21st century. In these runs, the oceans were initialized to 1995 conditions by a group from the Scripps Institution of Oceanography and other institutions. An ensemble of three model runs was then carried out to the year 2099 using the projected forcing. Atmospheric data from these runs were saved at 6-hourly intervals (hourly for certain critical fields) to support the ACPI objective of accurately modeling hydrological cycles over the western U.S. It is shown that the initialization to 1995 conditions partly removes the un-forced oceanic temperature and salinity drifts that occurred in the standard 20th century integration. The ACPI runs show a global surface temperature increase of 3-8C over northern high-latitudes by the end of the 21st century, and 1-2C over the oceans. This is generally within ±0.1C of model runs without the 1995 ocean initialization. The exception is in the Antarctic circumpolar ocean where surface air temperature is cooler in the ACPI run; however the ensemble scatter is large in this region. Although the difference in climate at the end of the 21st century is minimal between the ACPI runs and traditionally spun up runs, it might be larger for CGCMs with higher climate sensitivity or larger ocean drifts. Our results suggest that the effect of small errors in the oceans (such as those associated with climate drifts) on CGCM-simulated climate changes for the next 50-100 years may be negligible

How realistic are air quality hindcasts driven by forcings from climate model simulations?

Science.gov (United States)

Lacressonnière, G.; Peuch, V.-H.; Arteta, J.; Josse, B.; Joly, M.; Marécal, V.; Saint Martin, D.; Déqué, M.; Watson, L.

2012-12-01

Predicting how European air quality could evolve over the next decades in the context of changing climate requires the use of climate models to produce results that can be averaged in a climatologically and statistically sound manner. This is a very different approach from the one that is generally used for air quality hindcasts for the present period; analysed meteorological fields are used to represent specifically each date and hour. Differences arise both from the fact that a climate model run results in a pure model output, with no influence from observations (which are useful to correct for a range of errors), and that in a "climate" set-up, simulations on a given day, month or even season cannot be related to any specific period of time (but can just be interpreted in a climatological sense). Hence, although an air quality model can be thoroughly validated in a "realistic" set-up using analysed meteorological fields, the question remains of how far its outputs can be interpreted in a "climate" set-up. For this purpose, we focus on Europe and on the current decade using three 5-yr simulations performed with the multiscale chemistry-transport model MOCAGE and use meteorological forcings either from operational meteorological analyses or from climate simulations. We investigate how statistical skill indicators compare in the different simulations, discriminating also the effects of meteorology on atmospheric fields (winds, temperature, humidity, pressure, etc.) and on the dependent emissions and deposition processes (volatile organic compound emissions, deposition velocities, etc.). Our results show in particular how differing boundary layer heights and deposition velocities affect horizontal and vertical distributions of species. When the model is driven by operational analyses, the simulation accurately reproduces the observed values of O3, NOx, SO2 and, with some bias that can be explained by the set-up, PM10. We study how the simulations driven by climate

Fossil-Fuel C02 Emissions Database and Exploration System

Science.gov (United States)

Krassovski, M.; Boden, T.

2012-04-01

Fossil-Fuel C02 Emissions Database and Exploration System Misha Krassovski and Tom Boden Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center Oak Ridge National Laboratory The Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center (CDIAC) at Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) quantifies the release of carbon from fossil-fuel use and cement production each year at global, regional, and national spatial scales. These estimates are vital to climate change research given the strong evidence suggesting fossil-fuel emissions are responsible for unprecedented levels of carbon dioxide (CO2) in the atmosphere. The CDIAC fossil-fuel emissions time series are based largely on annual energy statistics published for all nations by the United Nations (UN). Publications containing historical energy statistics make it possible to estimate fossil-fuel CO2 emissions back to 1751 before the Industrial Revolution. From these core fossil-fuel CO2 emission time series, CDIAC has developed a number of additional data products to satisfy modeling needs and to address other questions aimed at improving our understanding of the global carbon cycle budget. For example, CDIAC also produces a time series of gridded fossil-fuel CO2 emission estimates and isotopic (e.g., C13) emissions estimates. The gridded data are generated using the methodology described in Andres et al. (2011) and provide monthly and annual estimates for 1751-2008 at 1° latitude by 1° longitude resolution. These gridded emission estimates are being used in the latest IPCC Scientific Assessment (AR4). Isotopic estimates are possible thanks to detailed information for individual nations regarding the carbon content of select fuels (e.g., the carbon signature of natural gas from Russia). CDIAC has recently developed a relational database to house these baseline emissions estimates and associated derived products and a web-based interface to help users worldwide query these data holdings. Users can identify, explore and download desired CDIAC

A comparative modeling study on non-climatic and climatic risk assessment on Asian Tiger Mosquito (Aedes albopictus).

Science.gov (United States)

Shabani, Farzin; Shafapour Tehrany, Mahyat; Solhjouy-Fard, Samaneh; Kumar, Lalit

2018-01-01

Aedes albopictus , the Asian Tiger Mosquito, vector of Chikungunya, Dengue Fever and Zika viruses, has proven its hardy adaptability in expansion from its natural Asian, forest edge, tree hole habitat on the back of international trade transportation, re-establishing in temperate urban surrounds, in a range of water receptacles and semi-enclosures of organic matter. Conventional aerial spray mosquito vector controls focus on wetland and stagnant water expanses, proven to miss the protected hollows and crevices favoured by Ae. albopictus. New control or eradication strategies are thus essential, particular in light of potential expansions in the southeastern and eastern USA. Successful regional vector control strategies require risk level analysis. Should strategies prioritize regions with non-climatic or climatic suitability parameters for Ae. albopictus ? Our study used current Ae. albopictus distribution data to develop two independent models: (i) regions with suitable non-climatic factors, and (ii) regions with suitable climate for Ae. albopictus in southeastern USA. Non-climatic model processing used Evidential Belief Function (EBF), together with six geographical conditioning factors (raster data layers), to establish the probability index. Validation of the analysis results was estimated with area under the curve (AUC) using Ae. albopictus presence data. Climatic modeling was based on two General Circulation Models (GCMs), Miroc3.2 and CSIRO-MK30 running the RCP 8.5 scenario in MaxEnt software. EBF non-climatic model results achieved a 0.70 prediction rate and 0.73 success rate, confirming suitability of the study site regions for Ae. albopictus establishment. The climatic model results showed the best-fit model comprised Coldest Quarter Mean Temp, Precipitation of Wettest Quarter and Driest Quarter Precipitation factors with mean AUC value of 0.86. Both GCMs showed that the whole study site is highly suitable and will remain suitable climatically, according

A comparative modeling study on non-climatic and climatic risk assessment on Asian Tiger Mosquito (Aedes albopictus

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Farzin Shabani

2018-03-01

Full Text Available Aedes albopictus, the Asian Tiger Mosquito, vector of Chikungunya, Dengue Fever and Zika viruses, has proven its hardy adaptability in expansion from its natural Asian, forest edge, tree hole habitat on the back of international trade transportation, re-establishing in temperate urban surrounds, in a range of water receptacles and semi-enclosures of organic matter. Conventional aerial spray mosquito vector controls focus on wetland and stagnant water expanses, proven to miss the protected hollows and crevices favoured by Ae. albopictus. New control or eradication strategies are thus essential, particular in light of potential expansions in the southeastern and eastern USA. Successful regional vector control strategies require risk level analysis. Should strategies prioritize regions with non-climatic or climatic suitability parameters for Ae. albopictus? Our study used current Ae. albopictus distribution data to develop two independent models: (i regions with suitable non-climatic factors, and (ii regions with suitable climate for Ae. albopictus in southeastern USA. Non-climatic model processing used Evidential Belief Function (EBF, together with six geographical conditioning factors (raster data layers, to establish the probability index. Validation of the analysis results was estimated with area under the curve (AUC using Ae. albopictus presence data. Climatic modeling was based on two General Circulation Models (GCMs, Miroc3.2 and CSIRO-MK30 running the RCP 8.5 scenario in MaxEnt software. EBF non-climatic model results achieved a 0.70 prediction rate and 0.73 success rate, confirming suitability of the study site regions for Ae. albopictus establishment. The climatic model results showed the best-fit model comprised Coldest Quarter Mean Temp, Precipitation of Wettest Quarter and Driest Quarter Precipitation factors with mean AUC value of 0.86. Both GCMs showed that the whole study site is highly suitable and will remain suitable climatically

Reduction of systematic biases in regional climate downscaling through ensemble forcing

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Yang, Hongwei; Wang, Bin [Chinese Academy of Sciences, LASG, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Beijing (China); Wang, Bin [University of Hawaii at Manoa, Department of Meteorology, Honolulu, Hawaii (United States); University of Hawaii at Manoa, International Pacific Research Center, Honolulu, Hawaii (United States)

2012-02-15

Simulations of the East Asian summer monsoon for the period of 1979-2001 were carried out using the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model forced by three reanalysis datasets (NCEP-R2, ERA-40, and JRA-25). The experiments forced by different reanalysis data exhibited remarkable differences, primarily caused by uncertainties in the lateral boundary (LB) moisture fluxes over the Bay of Bengal and the Philippine Sea. The climatological mean water vapor convergence into the model domain computed from ERA-40 was about 24% higher than that from the NCEP-R2 reanalysis. We demonstrate that using the ensemble mean of NCEP-R2, ERA-40, and JRA-25 as LB forcing considerably reduced the biases in the model simulation. The use of ensemble forcing improved the performance in simulated mean circulation and precipitation, inter-annual variation in seasonal precipitation, and daily precipitation. The model simulated precipitation was superior to that in the reanalysis in both climatology and year-to-year variations, indicating the added value of dynamic downscaling. The results suggest that models having better performance under one set of LB forcing might worsen when another set of reanalysis data is used as LB forcing. Use of ensemble mean LB forcing for assessing regional climate model performance is recommended. (orig.)

Non-stationary flood frequency analysis in continental Spanish rivers, using climate and reservoir indices as external covariates

Science.gov (United States)

López, J.; Francés, F.

2013-08-01

Recent evidences of the impact of persistent modes of regional climate variability, coupled with the intensification of human activities, have led hydrologists to study flood regime without applying the hypothesis of stationarity. In this study, a framework for flood frequency analysis is developed on the basis of a tool that enables us to address the modelling of non-stationary time series, namely, the "generalized additive models for location, scale and shape" (GAMLSS). Two approaches to non-stationary modelling in GAMLSS were applied to the annual maximum flood records of 20 continental Spanish rivers. The results of the first approach, in which the parameters of the selected distributions were modelled as a function of time only, show the presence of clear non-stationarities in the flood regime. In a second approach, the parameters of the flood distributions are modelled as functions of climate indices (Arctic Oscillation, North Atlantic Oscillation, Mediterranean Oscillation and the Western Mediterranean Oscillation) and a reservoir index that is proposed in this paper. The results when incorporating external covariates in the study highlight the important role of interannual variability in low-frequency climate forcings when modelling the flood regime in continental Spanish rivers. Also, with this approach it is possible to properly introduce the impact on the flood regime of intensified reservoir regulation strategies. The inclusion of external covariates permits the use of these models as predictive tools. Finally, the application of non-stationary analysis shows that the differences between the non-stationary quantiles and their stationary equivalents may be important over long periods of time.

Non-stationary flood frequency analysis in continental Spanish rivers, using climate and reservoir indices as external covariates

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

J. López

2013-08-01

Full Text Available Recent evidences of the impact of persistent modes of regional climate variability, coupled with the intensification of human activities, have led hydrologists to study flood regime without applying the hypothesis of stationarity. In this study, a framework for flood frequency analysis is developed on the basis of a tool that enables us to address the modelling of non-stationary time series, namely, the "generalized additive models for location, scale and shape" (GAMLSS. Two approaches to non-stationary modelling in GAMLSS were applied to the annual maximum flood records of 20 continental Spanish rivers. The results of the first approach, in which the parameters of the selected distributions were modelled as a function of time only, show the presence of clear non-stationarities in the flood regime. In a second approach, the parameters of the flood distributions are modelled as functions of climate indices (Arctic Oscillation, North Atlantic Oscillation, Mediterranean Oscillation and the Western Mediterranean Oscillation and a reservoir index that is proposed in this paper. The results when incorporating external covariates in the study highlight the important role of interannual variability in low-frequency climate forcings when modelling the flood regime in continental Spanish rivers. Also, with this approach it is possible to properly introduce the impact on the flood regime of intensified reservoir regulation strategies. The inclusion of external covariates permits the use of these models as predictive tools. Finally, the application of non-stationary analysis shows that the differences between the non-stationary quantiles and their stationary equivalents may be important over long periods of time.

Power Plant with C02 -Capture and Solar Energy Conversion in Microalgae Mass Culture

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Borodyanski, G.; Yantovski, E.; Levin, L.

1998-01-01

The purpose of the present study was to investigate a concept of a fuel reproduction after its burning and C02 trapping. This concept is considered with practical (technical) point of view. We focus our attention on the involving of biological system of fuel reproduction and C02 trapping in power plant for electricity production. The paper discusses the energy, biological, ecological and economical aspects of such power plant. This work is connected with potential development of zero-emission power and technological plant on the base of microalgae solar

Contributions of developed and developing countries to global climate forcing and surface temperature change

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ward, D S; Mahowald, N M

2014-01-01

Understanding the relative contributions of individual countries to global climate change for different time periods is essential for mitigation strategies that seek to hold nations accountable for their historical emissions. Previous assessments of this kind have compared countries by their greenhouse gas emissions, but have yet to consider the full spectrum of the short-lived gases and aerosols. In this study, we use the radiative forcing of anthropogenic emissions of long-lived greenhouse gases, ozone precursors, aerosols, and from albedo changes from land cover change together with a simple climate model to evaluate country contributions to climate change. We assess the historical contribution of each country to global surface temperature change from anthropogenic forcing ( Δ T s ), future Δ T s through year 2100 given two different emissions scenarios, and the Δ T s that each country has committed to from past activities between 1850 and 2010 (committed Δ T s ). By including forcings in addition to the long-lived greenhouse gases the contribution of developed countries, particularly the United States, to Δ T s from 1850 to 2010 (58%) is increased compared to an assessment of CO 2 -equivalent emissions for the same time period (52%). Contributions to committed Δ T s evaluated at year 2100, dominated by long-lived greenhouse gas forcing, are more evenly split between developed and developing countries (55% and 45%, respectively). The portion of anthropogenic Δ T s attributable to developing countries is increasing, led by emissions from China and India, and we estimate that this will surpass the contribution from developed countries around year 2030. (paper)

The Climate Change Consortium of Wales (C3W)

Science.gov (United States)

Hendry, K. R.; Reis, J.; Hall, I. R.

2011-12-01

In response to the complexity and multidisciplinary nature of climate change research, the Climate Change Consortium of Wales (C3W) was formed in 2009 by the Welsh universities of Aberystwyth, Bangor, Cardiff and Swansea. Initially funded by Welsh Government, through the Higher Education Funding Council for Wales, the Countryside Council for Wales and the universities, C3W aims to bring together climate change researchers from a wide range of disciplines to explore scientific and sociological drivers, impacts and implications at local, national and international scale. The specific aims are to i) improve our fundamental understanding of the causes, nature, timing and consequences of climate change on Planet Earth's environment and on humanity, and ii) to reconfigure climate research in Wales as a recognisable centre of excellence on the world stage. In addition to improving the infrastructure for climate change research, we aim to improve communication, networking, collaborative research, and multidisciplinary data assimilation within and between the Welsh universities, and other UK and international institutions. Furthermore, C3W aims to apply its research by actively contributing towards national policy development, business development and formal and informal education activities within and beyond Wales.

The CSIRO Mk3L climate system model version 1.0 – Part 2: Response to external forcings

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

S. J. Phipps

2012-05-01

Full Text Available The CSIRO Mk3L climate system model is a coupled general circulation model, designed primarily for millennial-scale climate simulation and palaeoclimate research. Mk3L includes components which describe the atmosphere, ocean, sea ice and land surface, and combines computational efficiency with a stable and realistic control climatology. It is freely available to the research community. This paper evaluates the response of the model to external forcings which correspond to past and future changes in the climate system.

A simulation of the mid-Holocene climate is performed, in which changes in the seasonal and meridional distribution of incoming solar radiation are imposed. Mk3L correctly simulates increased summer temperatures at northern mid-latitudes and cooling in the tropics. However, it is unable to capture some of the regional-scale features of the mid-Holocene climate, with the precipitation over Northern Africa being deficient. The model simulates a reduction of between 7 and 15% in the amplitude of El Niño-Southern Oscillation, a smaller decrease than that implied by the palaeoclimate record. However, the realism of the simulated ENSO is limited by the model's relatively coarse spatial resolution.

Transient simulations of the late Holocene climate are then performed. The evolving distribution of insolation is imposed, and an acceleration technique is applied and assessed. The model successfully captures the temperature changes in each hemisphere and the upward trend in ENSO variability. However, the lack of a dynamic vegetation scheme does not allow it to simulate an abrupt desertification of the Sahara.

To assess the response of Mk3L to other forcings, transient simulations of the last millennium are performed. Changes in solar irradiance, atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations and volcanic emissions are applied to the model. The model is again broadly successful at simulating larger-scale changes in the

Anthropogenic radiative forcing of southern African and Southern Hemisphere climate variability and change

CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

Engelbrecht, FA

2014-10-01

Full Text Available of stratospheric ozone, greenhouse gasses, aerosols and sulphur dioxide, can improve the model's skill to simulate inter-annual variability over southern Africa. The paper secondly explores the role of different radiative forcings of future climate change over...

Late Quaternary changes in climate

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Holmgren, K; Karlen, W [Stockholm Univ. (Sweden). Dept. of Physical Geography

1998-12-01

This review concerns the Quaternary climate with an emphasis on the last 200 000 years. The present state of art in this field is described and evaluated. The review builds on a thorough examination of classic and recent literature. General as well as detailed patterns in climate are described and the forcing factors and feed-back effects are discussed. Changes in climate occur on all time-scales. During more than 90% of the Quaternary period earth has experienced vast ice sheets, i.e. glaciations have been more normal for the period than the warm interglacial conditions we face today. Major changes in climate, such as the 100 000 years glacial/interglacial cycle, are forced by the Milankovitch three astronomical cycles. Because the cycles have different length climate changes on earth do not follow a simple pattern and it is not possible to find perfect analogues of a certain period in the geological record. Recent discoveries include the observation that major changes in climate seem to occur at the same time on both hemispheres, although the astronomical theory implies a time-lag between latitudes. This probably reflects the influence of feed-back effects within the climate system. Another recent finding of importance is the rapid fluctuations that seem to be a normal process. When earth warmed after the last glaciation temperature jumps of up to 10 deg C occurred within less than a decade and precipitation more than doubled within the same time. The forcing factors behind these rapid fluctuations are not well understood but are believed to be a result of major re-organisations in the oceanic circulation. Realizing that nature, on its own, can cause rapid climate changes of this magnitude put some perspective on the anthropogenic global warming debate, where it is believed that the release of greenhouse gases will result in a global warming of a few C. To understand the forcing behind natural rapid climate changes appears as important as to understand the role

Late Quaternary changes in climate

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Holmgren, K.; Karlen, W.

1998-12-01

This review concerns the Quaternary climate with an emphasis on the last 200 000 years. The present state of art in this field is described and evaluated. The review builds on a thorough examination of classic and recent literature. General as well as detailed patterns in climate are described and the forcing factors and feed-back effects are discussed. Changes in climate occur on all time-scales. During more than 90% of the Quaternary period earth has experienced vast ice sheets, i.e. glaciations have been more normal for the period than the warm interglacial conditions we face today. Major changes in climate, such as the 100 000 years glacial/interglacial cycle, are forced by the Milankovitch three astronomical cycles. Because the cycles have different length climate changes on earth do not follow a simple pattern and it is not possible to find perfect analogues of a certain period in the geological record. Recent discoveries include the observation that major changes in climate seem to occur at the same time on both hemispheres, although the astronomical theory implies a time-lag between latitudes. This probably reflects the influence of feed-back effects within the climate system. Another recent finding of importance is the rapid fluctuations that seem to be a normal process. When earth warmed after the last glaciation temperature jumps of up to 10 deg C occurred within less than a decade and precipitation more than doubled within the same time. The forcing factors behind these rapid fluctuations are not well understood but are believed to be a result of major re-organisations in the oceanic circulation. Realizing that nature, on its own, can cause rapid climate changes of this magnitude put some perspective on the anthropogenic global warming debate, where it is believed that the release of greenhouse gases will result in a global warming of a few C. To understand the forcing behind natural rapid climate changes appears as important as to understand the role

Intra-operative warming with a forced-air warmer in preventing hypothermia after tourniquet deflation in elderly patients.

Science.gov (United States)

Kim, Y-S; Jeon, Y-S; Lee, J-A; Park, W-K; Koh, H-S; Joo, J-D; In, J-H; Seo, K-W

2009-01-01

This randomized, single-blind study aimed to explore the effects of intra-operative warming with a forced-air warmer in the prevention of hypothermia after tourniquet deflation in elderly patients undergoing unilateral total knee replacement arthroplasty under general anaesthesia. Patients were randomized to receive either intra-operative warming using a forced-air warmer with an upper body blanket (warming group; n = 12) or no intra-operative warming (nonwarming group; n = 12). Oesophageal temperature was measured as core body temperature. At 30 min following tourniquet inflation, the core body temperature started to increase in the warming group whereas it continued to drop in the non-warming group. This difference was statistically significant. The final core body temperature after tourniquet deflation was significantly higher in the warming group (mean +/- SD 36.1 +/- 0.2 degrees C) than in the non-warming group (35.4 +/- 0.3 degrees C). Intra-operative forced-air warming increased the core body temperature before tourniquet deflation and prevented subsequent hypothermia in elderly patients under general anaesthesia.

On the Baltic Sea Response to Climate Change: Model Implications

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Omstedt, Anders; Leppaeranta, Matti

1999-01-01

The sensitivity of the Baltic Sea to climate change is reviewed on the basis of recent model studies. In general, the presently available models indicate that the Baltic Sea is a most sensitive system to climate change, particularly in air temperature, wind, fresh water inflow and the barotropic forcing in the entrance area. Available scenarios for ice conditions and climate warming around year 2100 show 2-3 months' shortening of the ice season in the Bothnian Bay and about 0.4 m decrease in the maximum annual ice thickness. Corresponding scenarios for climate cooling show 1-2 months' longer ice season in the Bothnian Bay and 0.2 - 0.5 m increase in the maximum annual ice thickness

Australian climate extremes at 1.5 °C and 2 °C of global warming

Science.gov (United States)

King, Andrew D.; Karoly, David J.; Henley, Benjamin J.

2017-06-01

To avoid more severe impacts from climate change, there is international agreement to strive to limit warming to below 1.5 °C. However, there is a lack of literature assessing climate change at 1.5 °C and the potential benefits in terms of reduced frequency of extreme events. Here, we demonstrate that existing model simulations provide a basis for rapid and rigorous analysis of the effects of different levels of warming on large-scale climate extremes, using Australia as a case study. We show that limiting warming to 1.5 °C, relative to 2 °C, would perceptibly reduce the frequency of extreme heat events in Australia. The Australian continent experiences a variety of high-impact climate extremes that result in loss of life, and economic and environmental damage. Events similar to the record-hot summer of 2012-2013 and warm seas associated with bleaching of the Great Barrier Reef in 2016 would be substantially less likely, by about 25% in both cases, if warming is kept to lower levels. The benefits of limiting warming on hydrometeorological extremes are less clear. This study provides a framework for analysing climate extremes at 1.5 °C global warming.

Potential Impact of a US Climate Policy and Air Quality Regulations on Future Air Quality and Climate Change

Science.gov (United States)

Lee, Y. H.; Faluvegi, Gregory S.

2016-01-01

mean total RF is +C02 W m(sup -2) due to positive aerosol direct and indirect forcing, while the global mean total RF is -0.06 W m(sup -2) due to the dominant negative CO2 RF (instantaneous RF). To achieve a regional-scale climate benefit via a climate policy, it is critical (1) to have multinational efforts to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and (2) to simultaneously target emission reduction of light-absorbing species (e.g., BC and O3) on top of long-lived species. The latter is very desirable as the resulting climate benefit occurs faster and provides cobenefits to air quality and public health.

Direct shortwave forcing of climate by anthropogenic sulfate aerosol: Sensitivity to particle size, composition, and relative humidity

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Nemesure, S.; Wagener, R.; Schwartz, S.E. [Brookhaven National Lab., Upton, New York (United States)

1996-04-01

Recent estimates of global or hemispheric average forcing of climate by anthropogenic sulfate aerosol due to scattering of shortwave radiation are uncertain by more than a factor of 2. This paper examines the sensitivity of forcing to these microphysical properties for the purposes of obtaining a better understanding of the properties required to reduce the uncertainty in the forcing.

Is climate change an unforeseen, irresistible and external factor - A force majeure in marine environmental law?

Science.gov (United States)

Saul, Roxanne; Barnes, Richard; Elliott, Michael

2016-12-15

Several environmental laws include provisions on natural causes or force majeure, which except States from their commitments if it can be proven that the failure to meet the commitment is due to factors outside their control. The European Union Marine Strategy Framework Directive (MSFD) has a pivotal role in managing EU marine waters. This paper analyses natural causes and force majeure provisions of the MFSD and other marine legislation, and addresses their interaction with climate change and its consequences, especially the effect on the obligation of ensuring seas are in Good Environmental Status. Climate change is an exogenic unmanaged pressure in that it emanates from outside the area being managed but in which the management authority has to respond to the consequences of climate change, such as sea level rise and temperature elevation, rather than its causes. It is suggested that a defence by a Member State of force majeure may be accepted if an event was proven to be due to an externality of control, irresistible and unforeseeable. The analysis contends that countering such a legal defence would centre on the fact that climate change is a well-accepted phenomenon, is foreseen with an accepted level of confidence and probability and is due to human actions. However, as yet, this has not been legally tested. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The vertical distribution of climate forcings and feedbacks from the surface to top of atmosphere

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Previdi, Michael [Columbia University, Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Palisades, NY (United States); Liepert, Beate G. [NorthWest Research Associates, Redmond, WA (United States)

2012-08-15

The radiative forcings and feedbacks that determine Earth's climate sensitivity are typically defined at the top-of-atmosphere (TOA) or tropopause, yet climate sensitivity itself refers to a change in temperature at the surface. In this paper, we describe how TOA radiative perturbations translate into surface temperature changes. It is shown using first principles that radiation changes at the TOA can be equated with the change in energy stored by the oceans and land surface. This ocean and land heat uptake in turn involves an adjustment of the surface radiative and non-radiative energy fluxes, with the latter being comprised of the turbulent exchange of latent and sensible heat between the surface and atmosphere. We employ the radiative kernel technique to decompose TOA radiative feedbacks in the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report climate models into components associated with changes in radiative heating of the atmosphere and of the surface. (We consider the equilibrium response of atmosphere-mixed layer ocean models subjected to an instantaneous doubling of atmospheric CO{sub 2}). It is shown that most feedbacks, i.e., the temperature, water vapor and cloud feedbacks, (as well as CO{sub 2} forcing) affect primarily the turbulent energy exchange at the surface rather than the radiative energy exchange. Specifically, the temperature feedback increases the surface turbulent (radiative) energy loss by 2.87 W m{sup -2} K{sup -1} (0.60 W m{sup -2} K{sup -1}) in the multimodel mean; the water vapor feedback decreases the surface turbulent energy loss by 1.07 W m{sup -2} K{sup -1} and increases the surface radiative heating by 0.89 W m{sup -2} K{sup -1}; and the cloud feedback decreases both the turbulent energy loss and the radiative heating at the surface by 0.43 and 0.24 W m{sup -2} K{sup -1}, respectively. Since changes to the surface turbulent energy exchange are dominated in the global mean sense by changes in surface evaporation, these results serve to highlight

The effects of solar variability on climate

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hoffert, M.I.

1990-01-01

It has been hypothesized for at least a century that some of the observed variance in global temperature records arises from variations in solar output. Theories of solar-variability effects on climate could not be tested directly prior to satellite measurements because uncertainties in ground-based measurements of solar irradiance were larger than the solar variations themselves. Measurements by the Active Cavity Radiometer (ACRIM) onboard the Solar Max satellite and by the Earth Radiation Budget (ERB) instrument onboard Nimbus 6 are now available which indicate solar-constant variations are positively correlated with solar activity over an 11-yr solar cycle, and are of order ± 1.0 W m -2 relative to a mean solar constant of S 0 = 1,367 W m -2 , ΔS/S 0 ∼ ± 0.07%. For a typical climate sensitivity parameter of β = S 0 ∂T/∂S ∼ 100 C, the corresponding variations in radiative equilibrium temperature at the Earth's surface are ΔT e ∼ ± 0.07 C. The realized temperature variations from solar forcing, ΔT, can be significantly smaller because of thermal damping by the ocean. The author considers effects of solar variability on the observed and projected history of the global temperature record in light of this data using an upwelling-diffusion ocean model to assess the effect of ocean thermal inertia on the thermal response. The response to harmonic variations of the 11-yr sunspot cycle is of order ΔT ∼ ± 0.02 C, though the coupling between response and forcing is stronger for long-term variations in the envelope of the solar cycle which more nearly match the thermal response time of the deep ocean

Forces and energy dissipation in inhomogeneous non-equilibrium superconductors

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Poluehktov, Yu.M.; Slezov, V.V.

1987-01-01

The phenomenological theory of volume forces and dissipation processes in inhomogeneous non-equilibrium superconductors near temperature transition from the normal to superconducting state is constructed. The approach is based on application of dynamic equations of superconductivity formulated on the basis of the Lagrangian formalism. These equations are generalized the Ginzburg-Landau theory in the nonstationary non-equilibrium case for ''foul'' superconductors. The value estimations of volume forces arising in inhomogeneities during relaxation of an order parameter and when the electrical field is penetrated into the superconductor, are given

Accounting for radiative forcing from albedo change in future global land-use scenarios

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Jones, Andrew D. [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Calvin, Katherine V. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Collins, William D. [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Univ. of California, Berkeley, CA (United States); Edmonds, James A. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)

2015-08-01

We demonstrate the effectiveness of a new method for quantifying radiative forcing from land use and land cover change (LULCC) within an integrated assessment model, the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM). The method relies on geographically differentiated estimates of radiative forcing from albedo change associated with major land cover transitions derived from the Community Earth System Model. We find that conversion of 1 km² of woody vegetation (forest and shrublands) to non-woody vegetation (crops and grassland) yields between 0 and –0.71 nW/m² of globally averaged radiative forcing determined by the vegetation characteristics, snow dynamics, and atmospheric radiation environment characteristic within each of 151 regions we consider globally. Across a set of scenarios designed to span a range of potential future LULCC, we find LULCC forcing ranging from –0.06 to –0.29 W/m² by 2070 depending on assumptions regarding future crop yield growth and whether climate policy favors afforestation or bioenergy crops. Inclusion of this previously uncounted forcing in the policy targets driving future climate mitigation efforts leads to changes in fossil fuel emissions on the order of 1.5 PgC/yr by 2070 for a climate forcing limit of 4.5 Wm^–2, corresponding to a 12–67 % change in fossil fuel emissions depending on the scenario. Scenarios with significant afforestation must compensate for albedo-induced warming through additional emissions reductions, and scenarios with significant deforestation need not mitigate as aggressively due to albedo-induced cooling. In all scenarios considered, inclusion of albedo forcing in policy targets increases forest and shrub cover globally.

Tropical-extratropical climate interaction as revealed in idealized coupled climate model experiments

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Yang, Haijun [Peking University, Department of Atmospheric Science and Laboratory for Severe Storm and Flood Disasters, School of Physics, Beijing (China); Liu, Zhengyu [University of Wisconsin-Madison, Center for Climatic Research and Department of the Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, Madison, WI (United States)

2005-06-01

Tropical-extratropical climate interactions are studied by idealized experiments with a prescribed 2 C SST anomaly at different latitude bands in a coupled climate model. Instead of focusing on intrinsic climate variability, this work investigates the mean climate adjustment to remote external forcing. The extratropical impact on tropical climate can be as strong as the tropical impact on extratropical climate, with the remote sea surface temperature (SST) response being about half the magnitude of the imposed SST change in the forcing region. The equatorward impact of extratropical climate is accomplished by both the atmospheric bridge and the oceanic tunnel. About two-thirds of the tropical SST change comes from the atmospheric bridge, while the remaining one-third comes from the oceanic tunnel. The equatorial SST increase is first driven by the reduced latent heat flux and the weakened poleward surface Ekman transport, and then enhanced by the decrease in subtropical cells' strength and the equatorward subduction of warm anomalies. In contrast, the poleward impact of tropical climate is accomplished mainly by the atmospheric bridge, which is responsible for extratropical temperature changes in both the surface and subsurface. Sensitivity experiments also show the dominant role of the Southern Hemisphere oceans in the tropical climate change. (orig.)

Preventing disulfide bond formation weakens non-covalent forces among lysozyme aggregates.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Vijay Kumar Ravi

Full Text Available Nonnative disulfide bonds have been observed among protein aggregates in several diseases like amyotrophic lateral sclerosis, cataract and so on. The molecular mechanism by which formation of such bonds promotes protein aggregation is poorly understood. Here in this work we employ previously well characterized aggregation of hen eggwhite lysozyme (HEWL at alkaline pH to dissect the molecular role of nonnative disulfide bonds on growth of HEWL aggregates. We employed time-resolved fluorescence anisotropy, atomic force microscopy and single-molecule force spectroscopy to quantify the size, morphology and non-covalent interaction forces among the aggregates, respectively. These measurements were performed under conditions when disulfide bond formation was allowed (control and alternatively when it was prevented by alkylation of free thiols using iodoacetamide. Blocking disulfide bond formation affected growth but not growth kinetics of aggregates which were ∼50% reduced in volume, flatter in vertical dimension and non-fibrillar in comparison to control. Interestingly, single-molecule force spectroscopy data revealed that preventing disulfide bond formation weakened the non-covalent interaction forces among monomers in the aggregate by at least ten fold, thereby stalling their growth and yielding smaller aggregates in comparison to control. We conclude that while constrained protein chain dynamics in correctly disulfide bonded amyloidogenic proteins may protect them from venturing into partial folded conformations that can trigger entry into aggregation pathways, aberrant disulfide bonds in non-amyloidogenic proteins (like HEWL on the other hand, may strengthen non-covalent intermolecular forces among monomers and promote their aggregation.

Sensitivity of the Greenland Ice Sheet to Interglacial Climate Forcing: MIS 5e Versus MIS 11

Science.gov (United States)

Rachmayani, Rima; Prange, Matthias; Lunt, Daniel J.; Stone, Emma J.; Schulz, Michael

2017-11-01

The Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) is thought to have contributed substantially to high global sea levels during the interglacials of Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 5e and 11. Geological evidence suggests that the mass loss of the GrIS was greater during the peak interglacial of MIS 11 than MIS 5e, despite a weaker boreal summer insolation. We address this conundrum by using the three-dimensional thermomechanical ice sheet model Glimmer forced by Community Climate System Model version 3 output for MIS 5e and MIS 11 interglacial time slices. Our results suggest a stronger sensitivity of the GrIS to MIS 11 climate forcing than to MIS 5e forcing. Besides stronger greenhouse gas radiative forcing, the greater MIS 11 GrIS mass loss relative to MIS 5e is attributed to a larger oceanic heat transport toward high latitudes by a stronger Atlantic meridional overturning circulation. The vigorous MIS 11 ocean overturning, in turn, is related to a stronger wind-driven salt transport from low to high latitudes promoting North Atlantic Deep Water formation. The orbital insolation forcing, which causes the ocean current anomalies, is discussed.

Climatic signals and frequencies in the Swedish Time Scale, River Aangermanaelven, Central Sweden

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Sander, Mikkel

2003-03-01

to attribute some of the variation in the reconstructed Qmax to snow accumulation changes. The reconstructed Qmax series holds a centennial length waveform, which is interpreted in terms of the late Holocene climate succession, i.e. the Roman Warm Period, Dark Ages Cold Period, Medieval Warm Period, Little Ice Age and Contemporary Warm Period. Non-stationary frequencies in the sub decadal, decadal and centennial bands have been detected in the 2000 year long geometric mean varve series. Sub decadal frequencies are tentatively interpreted as forced by the North Atlantic Oscillation. Decadal frequencies are interpreted as sunspot forcing. Centennial frequencies are tentative interpreted as Suess cycle forcing. Missing varves in the STS (minimum 500 years) have previously been postulated on the grounds of an independent calibrated radiocarbon calendar age obtained from varve deposits and its correlation to the GRIP Ice Core. However, an evaluation of the STS by cross correlation does not support the presence of a centennial error in the post glacial part of STS. Additional analyses on the relationship between reconstructed discharge and other climate (-derived) proxies have been tested, including temperature, tree rings, atmospheric indices, sea-ice extent, C-14 production variation, global temperature reconstructions and volcanic eruptions. These analyses were mostly internally contradictive and non-conclusive.

The Role of Forcing and Internal Dynamics in explaining the 'Medieval Climate Anomaly'

Science.gov (United States)

Goossee, Hugues; Crespin, Elisabeth; Dubinkina, Svetlana; Loutre, Marie-France; Mann, Michael E.; Renssen, Hans; Shindell, Drew

2012-01-01

Proxy reconstructions suggest that peak global temperature during the past warm interval known as the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA, roughly 950-1250 AD) has been exceeded only during the most recent decades. To better understand the origin of this warm period, we use model simulations constrained by data assimilation establishing the spatial pattern of temperature changes that is most consistent with forcing estimates, model physics and the empirical information contained in paleoclimate proxy records. These numerical experiments demonstrate that the reconstructed spatial temperature pattern of the MCA can be explained by a simple thermodynamical response of the climate system to relatively weak changes in radiative forcing combined with a modification of the atmospheric circulation, displaying some similarities with the positive phase of the so-called Arctic Oscillation, and with northward shifts in the position of the Gulf Stream and Kuroshio currents. The mechanisms underlying the MCA are thus quite different from anthropogenic mechanisms responsible for modern global warming.

Estimation of the global climate effect of brown carbon

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, A.; Wang, Y.; Zhang, Y.; Weber, R. J.; Song, Y.

2017-12-01

Carbonaceous aerosols significantly affect global radiative forcing and climate through absorption and scattering of sunlight. Black carbon (BC) and brown carbon (BrC) are light-absorbing carbonaceous aerosols. The global distribution and climate effect of BrC is uncertain. A recent study suggests that BrC absorption is comparable to BC in the upper troposphere over biomass burning region and that the resulting heating tends to stabilize the atmosphere. Yet current climate models do not include proper treatments of BrC. In this study, we derived a BrC global biomass burning emission inventory from Global Fire Emissions Database 4 (GFED4) and developed a BrC module in the Community Atmosphere Model version 5 (CAM5) of Community Earth System Model (CESM) model. The model simulations compared well to BrC observations of the Studies of Emissions, Atmospheric Composition, Clouds and Climate Coupling by Regional Surveys (SEAC4RS) and Deep Convective Clouds and Chemistry Project (DC-3) campaigns and includes BrC bleaching. Model results suggested that BrC in the upper troposphere due to convective transport is as important an absorber as BC globally. Upper tropospheric BrC radiative forcing is particularly significant over the tropics, affecting the atmosphere stability and Hadley circulation.

Future Climate Impacts of Direct Radiative Forcing Anthropogenic Aerosols, Tropospheric Ozone, and Long-lived Greenhouse Gases

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, Wei-Ting; Liao, Hong; Seinfeld, John H.

2007-01-01

Long-lived greenhouse gases (GHGs) are the most important driver of climate change over the next century. Aerosols and tropospheric ozone (O3) are expected to induce significant perturbations to the GHG-forced climate. To distinguish the equilibrium climate responses to changes in direct radiative forcing of anthropogenic aerosols, tropospheric ozone, and GHG between present day and year 2100, four 80-year equilibrium climates are simulated using a unified tropospheric chemistry-aerosol model within the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) general circulation model (GCM) 110. Concentrations of sulfate, nitrate, primary organic (POA) carbon, secondary organic (SOA) carbon, black carbon (BC) aerosols, and tropospheric ozone for present day and year 2100 are obtained a priori by coupled chemistry-aerosol GCM simulations, with emissions of aerosols, ozone, and precursors based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emissions Scenario (SRES) A2. Changing anthropogenic aerosols, tropospheric ozone, and GHG from present day to year 2100 is predicted to perturb the global annual mean radiative forcing by +0.18 (considering aerosol direct effects only), +0.65, and +6.54 W m(sup -2) at the tropopause, and to induce an equilibrium global annual mean surface temperature change of +0.14, +0.32, and +5.31 K, respectively, with the largest temperature response occurring at northern high latitudes. Anthropogenic aerosols, through their direct effect, are predicted to alter the Hadley circulation owing to an increasing interhemispheric temperature gradient, leading to changes in tropical precipitation. When changes in both aerosols and tropospheric ozone are considered, the predicted patterns of change in global circulation and the hydrological cycle are similar to those induced by aerosols alone. GHG-induced climate changes, such as amplified warming over high latitudes, weakened Hadley circulation, and increasing precipitation over the

A Study of Direct and Cloud-Mediated Radiative Forcing of Climate Due to Aerosols

Science.gov (United States)

Yu, Shao-Cai

1999-01-01

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has reported that in the southeastern US and eastern China, the general greenhouse warming due to anthropogenic gaseous emissions is dominated by the cooling effect of anthropogenic aerosols. To verify this model prediction in eastern China and southeastern US, we analyzed regional patterns of climate changes at 72 stations in eastern China during 1951- 94 (44 years), and at 52 stations in the southeastern US during 1949-94 (46 years) to detect the fingerprint of aerosol radiative forcing. It was found that the mean rates of change of annual mean daily, maximum, minimum temperatures and diurnal temperature range (DTR) in eastern China were 0.8, -0.2, 1.8, and -2.0 C/100 years respectively, while the mean rates of change of annual mean daily, maximum, minimum temperatures and DTR in the southeastern US were -0.2, -0.6, 0.2, and -0.8 C/100 years, respectively. This indicates that the high rate of increase in annual mean minimum temperature in eastern China results in a slightly warming trend of daily temperature, while the high rate of decrease in annual mean maximum temperature and low rate of increase in annual mean minimum temperature lead to the cooling trend of daily temperature in the southeastern US. We found that the warming from the longwave forcing due to both greenhouse gases and aerosols was completely counteracted by the shortwave aerosol forcing in the southeastern US in the past 46 years. A slightly overall warming trend in eastern China is evident; winters have become milder. This finding is explained by hypothesizing that increasing energy usage during the past 44 years has resulted in more coal and biomass burning, thus increasing the emission of absorbing soot and organic aerosols in eastern China. Such emissions, in addition to well-known Asia dust and greenhouse gases, may be responsible for the winter warming trend in eastern China that we have reported here. The sensitivity of aerosol

Climate Sensitivity, Sea Level, and Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide

Science.gov (United States)

Hansen, James; Sato, Makiko; Russell, Gary; Kharecha, Pushker

2013-01-01

Cenozoic temperature, sea level and CO2 covariations provide insights into climate sensitivity to external forcings and sea-level sensitivity to climate change. Climate sensitivity depends on the initial climate state, but potentially can be accurately inferred from precise palaeoclimate data. Pleistocene climate oscillations yield a fast-feedback climate sensitivity of 3+/-1deg C for a 4 W/sq m CO2 forcing if Holocene warming relative to the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) is used as calibration, but the error (uncertainty) is substantial and partly subjective because of poorly defined LGM global temperature and possible human influences in the Holocene. Glacial-to-interglacial climate change leading to the prior (Eemian) interglacial is less ambiguous and implies a sensitivity in the upper part of the above range, i.e. 3-4deg C for a 4 W/sq m CO2 forcing. Slow feedbacks, especially change of ice sheet size and atmospheric CO2, amplify the total Earth system sensitivity by an amount that depends on the time scale considered. Ice sheet response time is poorly defined, but we show that the slow response and hysteresis in prevailing ice sheet models are exaggerated. We use a global model, simplified to essential processes, to investigate state dependence of climate sensitivity, finding an increased sensitivity towards warmer climates, as low cloud cover is diminished and increased water vapour elevates the tropopause. Burning all fossil fuels, we conclude, would make most of the planet uninhabitable by humans, thus calling into question strategies that emphasize adaptation to climate change.

Satellite methods underestimate indirect climate forcing by aerosols

Science.gov (United States)

Penner, Joyce E.; Xu, Li; Wang, Minghuai

2011-01-01

Satellite-based estimates of the aerosol indirect effect (AIE) are consistently smaller than the estimates from global aerosol models, and, partly as a result of these differences, the assessment of this climate forcing includes large uncertainties. Satellite estimates typically use the present-day (PD) relationship between observed cloud drop number concentrations (Nc) and aerosol optical depths (AODs) to determine the preindustrial (PI) values of Nc. These values are then used to determine the PD and PI cloud albedos and, thus, the effect of anthropogenic aerosols on top of the atmosphere radiative fluxes. Here, we use a model with realistic aerosol and cloud processes to show that empirical relationships for ln(Nc) versus ln(AOD) derived from PD results do not represent the atmospheric perturbation caused by the addition of anthropogenic aerosols to the preindustrial atmosphere. As a result, the model estimates based on satellite methods of the AIE are between a factor of 3 to more than a factor of 6 smaller than model estimates based on actual PD and PI values for Nc. Using ln(Nc) versus ln(AI) (Aerosol Index, or the optical depth times angstrom exponent) to estimate preindustrial values for Nc provides estimates for Nc and forcing that are closer to the values predicted by the model. Nevertheless, the AIE using ln(Nc) versus ln(AI) may be substantially incorrect on a regional basis and may underestimate or overestimate the global average forcing by 25 to 35%. PMID:21808047

The Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S): Open Access to a Climate Data Store

Science.gov (United States)

Thepaut, Jean-Noel; Dee, Dick

2016-04-01

In November 2014, The European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) signed an agreement with the European Commission to deliver two of the Copernicus Earth Observation Programme Services on the Commission's behalf. The ECMWF delivered services - the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) and Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS) - will bring a consistent standard to how we monitor and predict atmospheric conditions and climate change. They will maximise the potential of past, current and future earth observations - ground, ocean, airborne, satellite - and analyse these to monitor and predict atmospheric conditions and in the future, climate change. With the wealth of free and open data that the services provide, they will help business users to assess the impact of their business decisions and make informed choices, delivering a more energy efficient and climate aware economy. These sound investment decisions now will not only stimulate growth in the short term, but reduce the impact of climate change on the economy and society in the future. C3S is in its proof of concept phase and through its Climate Data Store will provide • global and regional climate data reanalyses; • multi-model seasonal forecasts; • customisable visual data to enable examination of wide range of scenarios and model the impact of changes; • access to all the underlying data, including climate data records from various satellite and in-situ observations. In addition, C3S will provide key indicators on climate change drivers (such as carbon dioxide) and impacts (such as reducing glaciers). The aim of these indicators will be to support European adaptation and mitigation policies in a number of economic sectors. At the heart of the Service is the provision of open access to a one stop shop (the Climate Data Store) of climate data and modelling, analysing more than 20 Essential Climate Variables to build a global picture of our past, present and future climate and developing

The role of China in mitigating climate change

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Paltsev, Sergey; Morris, Jennifer; Cai, Yongxia; Karplus, Valerie; Jacoby, Henry

2012-01-01

We explore short- and long-term implications of several energy scenarios of China's role in efforts to mitigate global climate risk. The focus is on the impacts on China's energy system and GDP growth, and on global climate indicators such as greenhouse gas concentrations, radiative forcing, and global temperature change. We employ the MIT Integrated Global System Model (IGSM) framework and its economic component, the MIT Emissions Prediction and Policy Analysis (EPPA) model. We demonstrate that China's commitments for 2020, made during the UN climate meetings in Copenhagen and Cancun, are reachable at very modest cost. Alternative actions by China in the next 10 years do not yield any substantial changes in GHG concentrations or temperature due to inertia in the climate system. Consideration of the longer-term climate implications of the Copenhagen-type of commitments requires an assumption about policies after 2020, and the effects differ drastically depending on the case. Meeting a 2 °C target is problematic unless radical GHG emission reductions are assumed in the short-term. Participation or non-participation of China in global climate architecture can lead by 2100 to a 200–280 ppm difference in atmospheric GHG concentration, which can result in a 1.1 °C to 1.3 °C change by the end of the century. We conclude that it is essential to engage China in GHG emissions mitigation policies, and alternative actions lead to substantial differences in climate, energy, and economic outcomes. Potential channels for engaging China can be air pollution control and involvement in sectoral trading with established emissions trading systems in developed countries. - Highlights: ► It is essential to engage China in GHG emissions mitigation policies. ► China's mitigation actions proposed for 2015 and 2020 are reachable at modest costs. ► Meeting 2 °C target is problematic without radical GHG emissions reductions.

Climate and Offshore Energy Resources.

Science.gov (United States)

1980-12-30

SECuRITY CL.ASSIPIcaTIoN OF, TIns PA@elm VaeVa CLMATE ANID OFFSHORE ENERGY RESOUACES A distinguished group of government officials, scientists, engineers...about the mech- anisms of climatic systems, and gaining a better understanding of the impact of climatic change on human resources.* He continued by...atmospheric constit- uents, but he particularly emphasized " changes " in C02. He suggested that the atmospheric conditions may be better now than they were half

Biennial-Aligned Lunisolar-Forcing of ENSO: Implications for Simplified Climate Models

Science.gov (United States)

Pukite, P. R.

2017-12-01

By solving Laplace's tidal equations along the equatorial Pacific thermocline, assuming a delayed-differential effective gravity forcing due to a combined lunar+solar (lunisolar) stimulus, we are able to precisely match ENSO periodic variations over wide intervals. The underlying pattern is difficult to decode by conventional means such as spectral analysis, which is why it has remained hidden for so long, despite the excellent agreement in the time-domain. What occurs is that a non-linear seasonal modulation with monthly and fortnightly lunar impulses along with a biennially-aligned "see-saw" is enough to cause a physical aliasing and thus multiple folding in the frequency spectrum. So, instead of a conventional spectral tidal decomposition, we opted for a time-domain cross-validating approach to calibrate the amplitude and phasing of the lunisolar cycles. As the lunar forcing consists of three fundamental periods (draconic, anomalistic, synodic), we used the measured Earth's length-of-day (LOD) decomposed and resolved at a monthly time-scale [1] to align the amplitude and phase precisely. Even slight variations from the known values of the long-period tides will degrade the fit, so a high-resolution calibration is possible. Moreover, a narrow training segment from 1880-1920 using NINO34/SOI data is adequate to extrapolate the cycles of the past 100 years (see attached figure). To further understand the biennial impact of a yearly differential-delay, we were able to also decompose using difference equations the historical sea-level-height readings at Sydney harbor to clearly expose the ENSO behavior. Finally, the ENSO lunisolar model was validated by back-extrapolating to Unified ENSO coral proxy (UEP) records dating to 1650. The quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) behavior of equatorial stratospheric winds derives following a similar pattern to ENSO via the tidal equations, but with an emphasis on draconic forcing. This improvement in ENSO and QBO understanding has

Benefit–cost analysis of non-marginal climate and energy projects

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dietz, Simon; Hepburn, Cameron

2013-01-01

Conventional benefit–cost analysis incorporates the normally reasonable assumption that the policy or project under examination is marginal. Among the assumptions this entails is that the policy or project is small, so the underlying growth rate of the economy does not change. However, this assumption may be inappropriate in some important circumstances, including in climate-change and energy policy. One example is global targets for carbon emissions, while another is a large renewable energy project in a small economy, such as a hydropower dam. This paper develops some theory on the evaluation of non-marginal projects, with empirical applications to climate change and energy. We examine the conditions under which evaluation of a non-marginal project using marginal methods may be wrong, and in our empirical examples we show that both qualitative and large quantitative errors are plausible. - Highlights: • This paper develops the theory of the evaluation of non-marginal projects. • It also includes empirical applications to climate change and energy. • We show when evaluation of a non-marginal project using marginal methods is wrong

On the Representation of Ice Nucleation in Global Climate Models, and its Importance for Simulations of Climate Forcings and Feedbacks

Science.gov (United States)

Storelvmo, T.

2015-12-01

Substantial improvements have been made to the cloud microphysical schemes used in the latest generation of global climate models (GCMs), however, an outstanding weakness of these schemes lies in the arbitrariness of their tuning parameters. Despite the growing effort in improving the cloud microphysical schemes in GCMs, most of this effort has not focused on improving the ability of GCMs to accurately simulate phase partitioning in mixed-phase clouds. Getting the relative proportion of liquid droplets and ice crystals in clouds right in GCMs is critical for the representation of cloud radiative forcings and cloud-climate feedbacks. Here, we first present satellite observations of cloud phase obtained by NASA's CALIOP instrument, and report on robust statistical relationships between cloud phase and several aerosols species that have been demonstrated to act as ice nuclei (IN) in laboratory studies. We then report on results from model intercomparison projects that reveal that GCMs generally underestimate the amount of supercooled liquid in clouds. For a selected GCM (NCAR 's CAM5), we thereafter show that the underestimate can be attributed to two main factors: i) the presence of IN in the mixed-phase temperature range, and ii) the Wegener-Bergeron-Findeisen process, which converts liquid to ice once ice crystals have formed. Finally, we show that adjusting these two processes such that the GCM's cloud phase is in agreement with the observed has a substantial impact on the simulated radiative forcing due to IN perturbations, as well as on the cloud-climate feedbacks and ultimately climate sensitivity simulated by the GCM.

US/UK Sensor-To-Shooter Multinational C4 Interoperability Study Force-On-Force Effectiveness Methodology

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

Bailey, Timothy J

2000-01-01

.... This methodology has been successfully applied to Army, joint, and multinational studies. The latest of these studies, the US/UK Sensor-To-Shooter Multinational C4 Interoperability Study Force-On-Force Analysis, was an effort to measure the value...

Radiative Forcing Over Ocean by Ship Wakes

Science.gov (United States)

Gatebe, Charles K.; Wilcox, E.; Poudyal, R.; Wang, J.

2011-01-01

Changes in surface albedo represent one of the main forcing agents that can counteract, to some extent, the positive forcing from increasing greenhouse gas concentrations. Here, we report on enhanced ocean reflectance from ship wakes over the Pacific Ocean near the California coast, where we determined, based on airborne radiation measurements that ship wakes can increase reflected sunlight by more than 100%. We assessed the importance of this increase to climate forcing, where we estimated the global radiative forcing of ship wakes to be -0.00014 plus or minus 53% Watts per square meter assuming a global distribution of 32331 ships of size of greater than or equal to 100000 gross tonnage. The forcing is smaller than the forcing of aircraft contrails (-0.007 to +0.02 Watts per square meter), but considering that the global shipping fleet has rapidly grown in the last five decades and this trend is likely to continue because of the need of more inter-continental transportation as a result of economic globalization, we argue that the radiative forcing of wakes is expected to be increasingly important especially in harbors and coastal regions.

75 FR 43944 - Defense Science Board; Task Force on Trends and Implications of Climate Change for National and...

Science.gov (United States)

2010-07-27

... DEPARTMENT OF DEFENSE Office of the Secretary Defense Science Board; Task Force on Trends and Implications of Climate Change for National and International Security AGENCY: Department of Defense (DoD... and Implications of Climate Change for National and International Security will meet in closed session...

75 FR 34438 - Defense Science Board Task Force on Trends and Implications of Climate Change for National and...

Science.gov (United States)

2010-06-17

... DEPARTMENT OF DEFENSE Office of the Secretary Defense Science Board Task Force on Trends and Implications of Climate Change for National and International Security AGENCY: Department of Defense (DoD... and Implications of Climate Change for National and International Security will meet in closed session...

Realising traceable electrostatic forces despite non-linear balance motion

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Stirling, Julian; Shaw, Gordon A

2017-01-01

Direct realisation of force, traceable to fundamental constants via electromagnetic balances, is a key goal of the proposed redefinition of the international system of units (SI). This will allow small force metrology to be performed using an electrostatic force balance (EFB) rather than subdivision of larger forces. Such a balance uses the electrostatic force across a capacitor to balance an external force. In this paper we model the capacitance of a concentric cylinder EFB design as a function of the displacement of its free electrode, accounting for the arcuate motion produced by parallelogram linkages commonly used in EFB mechanisms. From this model we suggest new fitting procedures to reduce uncertainties arising from non-linear motion as well as methods to identify misalignment of the mechanism. Experimental studies on both a test capacitor and the NIST EFB validate the model. (paper)

Challenging climate change : competition and cooperation among pastoralists and agriculturalists in northern Mesopotamia (c. 3000-1600 BC)

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Wossink, Arne

2009-01-01

Throughout history, climate change has been an important driving force behind human behaviour. This archaeological study seeks to understand the complex interrelations between that behaviour and climatic fluctuations, focussing on how climate affected the social relations between neighbouring

On the Representation of Cloud Phase in Global Climate Models, and its Importance for Simulations of Climate Forcings and Feedbacks

Science.gov (United States)

Storelvmo, Trude; Sagoo, Navjit; Tan, Ivy

2016-04-01

Despite the growing effort in improving the cloud microphysical schemes in GCMs, most of this effort has not focused on improving the ability of GCMs to accurately simulate phase partitioning in mixed-phase clouds. Getting the relative proportion of liquid droplets and ice crystals in clouds right in GCMs is critical for the representation of cloud radiative forcings and cloud-climate feedbacks. Here, we first present satellite observations of cloud phase obtained by NASA's CALIOP instrument, and report on robust statistical relationships between cloud phase and several aerosols species that have been demonstrated to act as ice nuclei (IN) in laboratory studies. We then report on results from model intercomparison projects that reveal that GCMs generally underestimate the amount of supercooled liquid in clouds. For a selected GCM (NCAR 's CAM5), we thereafter show that the underestimate can be attributed to two main factors: i) the presence of IN in the mixed-phase temperature range, and ii) the Wegener-Bergeron-Findeisen process, which converts liquid to ice once ice crystals have formed. Finally, we show that adjusting these two processes such that the GCM's cloud phase is in agreement with the observed has a substantial impact on the simulated radiative forcing due to IN perturbations, as well as on the cloud-climate feedbacks and ultimately climate sensitivity simulated by the GCM.

On the climate impacts from the volcanic and solar forcings

Science.gov (United States)

Varotsos, Costas A.; Lovejoy, Shaun

2016-04-01

The observed and the modelled estimations show that the main forcings on the atmosphere are of volcanic and solar origins, which act however in an opposite way. The former can be very strong and decrease at short time scales, whereas, the latter increase with time scale. On the contrary, the observed fluctuations in temperatures increase at long scales (e.g. centennial and millennial), and the solar forcings do increase with scale. The common practice is to reduce forcings to radiative equivalents assuming that their combination is linear. In order to clarify the validity of the linearity assumption and determine its range of validity, we systematically compare the statistical properties of solar only, volcanic only and combined solar and volcanic forcings over the range of time scales from one to 1000 years. Additionally, we attempt to investigate plausible reasons for the discrepancies observed between the measured and modeled anomalies of tropospheric temperatures in the tropics. For this purpose, we analyse tropospheric temperature anomalies for both the measured and modeled time series. The results obtained show that the measured temperature fluctuations reveal white noise behavior, while the modeled ones exhibit long-range power law correlations. We suggest that the persistent signal, should be removed from the modeled values in order to achieve better agreement with observations. Keywords: Scaling, Nonlinear variability, Climate system, Solar radiation

Climate Forcing Data

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Records of changes in solar irradiance, volcanic aerosols, atmospheric trace gases, and other properties thought to influence climate in the past. Parameter keywords...

The impact of international shipping on European air quality and climate forcing

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

van Aardenne, J. [European Environment Agency (EEA), Copenhagen (Denmark); Colette, A. [INERIS (France); Degraeuwe, B.; de Vlieger, I. [VITO (Belgium); Hammingh, P. [PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (Netherlands); Viana, M. [CSIC (Spain)

2013-03-15

This EEA Technical report provides an overview on the state of knowledge on the impact of international shipping in European waters to air quality and climate change. Based on literature review and model assessment studies information is provided on past and future emissions of air pollutants and greenhouse gases, monitoring of ship emissions, emission mitigation policies and impact on European air quality and radiative forcing. (Author)

Force Transmission Modes of Non-Cohesive and Cohesive Materials at the Critical State.

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Ji-Peng

2017-08-31

This paper investigates the force transmission modes, mainly described by probability density distributions, in non-cohesive dry and cohesive wet granular materials by discrete element modeling. The critical state force transmission patterns are focused on with the contact model effect being analyzed. By shearing relatively dense and loose dry specimens to the critical state in the conventional triaxial loading path, it is observed that there is a unique critical state force transmission mode. There is a universe critical state force distribution pattern for both the normal contact forces and tangential contact forces. Furthermore, it is found that using either the linear Hooke or the non-linear Hertz model does not affect the universe force transmission mode, and it is only related to the grain size distribution. Wet granular materials are also simulated by incorporating a water bridge model. Dense and loose wet granular materials are tested, and the critical state behavior for the wet material is also observed. The critical state strength and void ratio of wet granular materials are higher than those of a non-cohesive material. The critical state inter-particle distribution is altered from that of a non-cohesive material with higher probability in relatively weak forces. Grains in non-cohesive materials are under compressive stresses, and their principal directions are mainly in the axial loading direction. However, for cohesive wet granular materials, some particles are in tension, and the tensile stresses are in the horizontal direction on which the confinement is applied. The additional confinement by the tensile stress explains the macro strength and dilatancy increase in wet samples.

Future discharge drought across climate regions around the world modelled with a synthetic hydrological modelling approach forced by three general circulation models

Science.gov (United States)

Wanders, N.; Van Lanen, H. A. J.

2015-03-01

Hydrological drought characteristics (drought in groundwater and streamflow) likely will change in the 21st century as a result of climate change. The magnitude and directionality of these changes and their dependency on climatology and catchment characteristics, however, is uncertain. In this study a conceptual hydrological model was forced by downscaled and bias-corrected outcome from three general circulation models for the SRES A2 emission scenario (GCM forced models), and the WATCH Forcing Data set (reference model). The threshold level method was applied to investigate drought occurrence, duration and severity. Results for the control period (1971-2000) show that the drought characteristics of each GCM forced model reasonably agree with the reference model for most of the climate types, suggesting that the climate models' results after post-processing produce realistic outcomes for global drought analyses. For the near future (2021-2050) and far future (2071-2100) the GCM forced models show a decrease in drought occurrence for all major climates around the world and increase of both average drought duration and deficit volume of the remaining drought events. The largest decrease in hydrological drought occurrence is expected in cold (D) climates where global warming results in a decreased length of the snow season and an increased precipitation. In the dry (B) climates the smallest decrease in drought occurrence is expected to occur, which probably will lead to even more severe water scarcity. However, in the extreme climate regions (desert and polar), the drought analysis for the control period showed that projections of hydrological drought characteristics are most uncertain. On a global scale the increase in hydrological drought duration and severity in multiple regions will lead to a higher impact of drought events, which should motivate water resource managers to timely anticipate the increased risk of more severe drought in groundwater and streamflow

The utility of the historical record for assessing the transient climate response to cumulative emissions

Science.gov (United States)

Friedlingstein, Pierre

2018-01-01

The historical observational record offers a way to constrain the relationship between cumulative carbon dioxide emissions and global mean warming. We use a standard detection and attribution technique, along with observational uncertainties to estimate the all-forcing or ‘effective’ transient climate response to cumulative emissions (TCRE) from the observational record. Accounting for observational uncertainty and uncertainty in historical non-CO2 radiative forcing gives a best-estimate from the historical record of 1.84°C/TtC (1.43–2.37°C/TtC 5–95% uncertainty) for the effective TCRE and 1.31°C/TtC (0.88–2.60°C/TtC 5–95% uncertainty) for the CO2-only TCRE. While the best-estimate TCRE lies in the lower half of the IPCC likely range, the high upper bound is associated with the not-ruled-out possibility of a strongly negative aerosol forcing. Earth System Models have a higher effective TCRE range when compared like-for-like with the observations over the historical period, associated in part with a slight underestimate of diagnosed cumulative emissions relative to the observational best-estimate, a larger ensemble mean-simulated CO2-induced warming, and rapid post-2000 non-CO2 warming in some ensemble members. This article is part of the theme issue ‘The Paris Agreement: understanding the physical and social challenges for a warming world of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels'. PMID:29610381

The utility of the historical record for assessing the transient climate response to cumulative emissions

Science.gov (United States)

Millar, Richard J.; Friedlingstein, Pierre

2018-05-01

The historical observational record offers a way to constrain the relationship between cumulative carbon dioxide emissions and global mean warming. We use a standard detection and attribution technique, along with observational uncertainties to estimate the all-forcing or `effective' transient climate response to cumulative emissions (TCRE) from the observational record. Accounting for observational uncertainty and uncertainty in historical non-CO2 radiative forcing gives a best-estimate from the historical record of 1.84°C/TtC (1.43-2.37°C/TtC 5-95% uncertainty) for the effective TCRE and 1.31°C/TtC (0.88-2.60°C/TtC 5-95% uncertainty) for the CO2-only TCRE. While the best-estimate TCRE lies in the lower half of the IPCC likely range, the high upper bound is associated with the not-ruled-out possibility of a strongly negative aerosol forcing. Earth System Models have a higher effective TCRE range when compared like-for-like with the observations over the historical period, associated in part with a slight underestimate of diagnosed cumulative emissions relative to the observational best-estimate, a larger ensemble mean-simulated CO2-induced warming, and rapid post-2000 non-CO2 warming in some ensemble members. This article is part of the theme issue `The Paris Agreement: understanding the physical and social challenges for a warming world of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels'.

A model perspective on orbital forcing of monsoons and Mediterranean climate using EC-Earth

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Bosmans, J.H.C.

2014-01-01

This thesis focuses on orbitally forced changes of monsoons and Mediterranean climate. Changes in the shape of the Earths orbit around the Sun and its rotational axis govern the seasonal and latitudinal distribution of incoming solar radiation on time scales of thousands to millions of years. The

Effects of the new imidazopyridine CL 86-02-01 on isolated papillary muscle of guinea-pig hearts.

Science.gov (United States)

Studenik, C; Lemmens-Gruber, R; Heistracher, P

1998-06-01

Inotropic activity and the effect of CL 86-02-01 (2-(3-methoxy-5-methylsulfinyl-2-thienyl)-1H-imidazo[4,5-c]pyridine hydrochloride, CAS 109 792-24-7) on membrane resting and action potentials were studied in isolated guinea-pig papillary muscles. Membrane resting potential and action potential parameters were not significantly changed, while CL 86-02-01 exerted a concentration-dependent inotropic effect by increasing the maximum rate of force development and maximum rate of force relaxation. Time to peak force, relaxation time and total contraction time were reduced. These effects are similar to those of beta-adrenergic drugs and phosphodiesterase inhibitors, but markedly differ from those described for other positive inotropic agents like cardiac glycosides, calcium agonists, alpha-adrenergic drugs or increased extracellular calcium concentration.

Prediction of thermal sensation in non-air-conditioned buildings in warm climates

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Fanger, Povl Ole; Toftum, Jørn

2002-01-01

The PMV model agrees well with high-quality field studies in buildings with HVAC systems, situated in cold, temperate and warm climates, studied during both summer and winter. In non-air-conditioned buildings in warm climates, occupants may sense the warmth as being less severe than the PMV...... predicts. The main reason is low expectations, but a metabolic rate that is estimated too high can also contribute to explaining the difference. An extension of the PMV model that includes an expectancy factor is introduced for use in non-air-conditioned buildings in warm climates. The extended PMV model...... agrees well with quality field studies in non-air-conditioned buildings of three continents....

On the forces and fluxes in non-equilibrium thermodynamics

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kitahara, Kazuo

1986-01-01

A formulation of non-equilibrium thermodynamics of continuum systems based on local equilibrium assumption is reported. Thermodynamic forces are defined from a generalized local entropy and irreversible fluxes are defined as non-advective parts of fluxes of conservative quantities. The validity of the general evolution criterion and its generalization is discussed. (author)

Unexpected weak seasonal climate in the western Mediterranean region during MIS 31, a high-insolation forced interglacial

Science.gov (United States)

Oliveira, Dulce; Sánchez Goñi, Maria Fernanda; Naughton, Filipa; Polanco-Martínez, J. M.; Jimenez-Espejo, Francisco J.; Grimalt, Joan O.; Martrat, Belen; Voelker, Antje H. L.; Trigo, Ricardo; Hodell, David; Abrantes, Fátima; Desprat, Stéphanie

2017-04-01

Marine Isotope Stage 31 (MIS 31) is an important analogue for ongoing and projected global warming, yet key questions remain about the regional signature of its extreme orbital forcing and intra-interglacial variability. Based on a new direct land-sea comparison in SW Iberian margin IODP Site U1385 we examine the climatic variability between 1100 and 1050 ka including the ;super interglacial; MIS 31, a period dominated by the 41-ky obliquity periodicity. Pollen and biomarker analyses at centennial-scale-resolution provide new insights into the regional vegetation, precipitation regime and atmospheric and oceanic temperature variability on orbital and suborbital timescales. Our study reveals that atmospheric and SST warmth during MIS 31 was not exceptional in this region highly sensitive to precession. Unexpectedly, this warm stage stands out as a prolonged interval of a temperate and humid climate regime with reduced seasonality, despite the high insolation (precession minima values) forcing. We find that the dominant forcing on the long-term temperate forest development was obliquity, which may have induced a decrease in summer dryness and associated reduction in seasonal precipitation contrast. Moreover, this study provides the first evidence for persistent atmospheric millennial-scale variability during this interval with multiple forest decline events reflecting repeated cooling and drying episodes in SW Iberia. Our direct land-sea comparison shows that the expression of the suborbital cooling events on SW Iberian ecosystems is modulated by the predominance of high or low-latitude forcing depending on the glacial/interglacial baseline climate states. Severe dryness and air-sea cooling is detected under the larger ice volume during glacial MIS 32 and MIS 30. The extreme episodes, which in their climatic imprint are similar to the Heinrich events, are likely related to northern latitude ice-sheet instability and a disruption of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning

Cl-intercalated graphene on SiC: Influence of van der Waals forces

KAUST Repository

Cheng, Yingchun; Zhu, Zhiyong; Schwingenschlö gl, Udo

2013-01-01

The atomic and electronic structures of Cl-intercalated epitaxial graphene on SiC are studied by first-principles calculations. By increasing the Cl concentration, doping levels from n-type to slightly p-type are achieved on the SiC(0001) surface, while a wider range of doping levels is possible on the SiC(0001̄) surface. We find that the Cl atoms prefer bonding to the substrate rather than to the graphene. By varying the Cl concentration the doping level can be tailored. Consideration of van der Waals forces improves the distance between the graphene and the substrate as well as the binding energy, but it is not essential for the formation energy. For understanding the doping mechanism the introduction of non-local van der Waals contributions to the exchange correlation functional is shown to be essential. Copyright © EPLA, 2013.

Elucidating dynamic responses of North Pacific fish populations to climatic forcing: Influence of life-history strategy

Science.gov (United States)

Yatsu, A.; Aydin, K. Y.; King, J. R.; McFarlane, G. A.; Chiba, S.; Tadokoro, K.; Kaeriyama, M.; Watanabe, Y.

2008-05-01

In order to explore mechanistic linkages between low-frequency ocean/climate variability, and fish population responses, we undertook comparative studies of time-series of recruitment-related productivity and the biomass levels of fish stocks representing five life-history strategies in the northern North Pacific between the 1950s and the present. We selected seven species: Japanese sardine ( Sardinopus melanostictus) and California sardine ( Sardinopus sagax) (opportunistic strategists), walleye pollock ( Theragra chalcogramma, intermediate strategist), pink salmon ( Oncorhynchus gorbuscha, salmonic strategist), sablefish ( Anoplopoma fimbria) and Pacific halibut ( Hippoglossus stenolepis) (periodic strategists) and spiny dogfish ( Squalus acanthias, equilibrium strategist). The responses in terms of productivity of sardine, pink salmon, sablefish and halibut to climatic regime shifts were generally immediate, delayed, or no substantial responses depending on the particular regime shift year and fish stock (population). In walleye pollock, there were some periods of high productivity and low productivity, but not coincidental to climatic regime shifts, likely due to indirect climate forcing impacts on both bottom-up and top-down processes. Biomass of zooplankton and all fish stocks examined, except for spiny dogfish whose data were limited, indicated a decadal pattern with the most gradual changes in periodic strategists and most intensive and rapid changes in opportunistic strategists. Responses of sardine productivity to regime shifts were the most intense, probably due to the absence of density-dependent effects and the availability of refuges from predators when sardine biomass was extremely low. Spiny dogfish were least affected by environmental variability. Conversely, spiny dogfish are likely to withstand only modest harvest rates due to their very low intrinsic rate of increase. Thus, each life-history strategy type had a unique response to climatic

Timing and extent of finger force enslaving during a dynamic force task cannot be explained by EMG activity patterns.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mojtaba Mirakhorlo

Full Text Available Finger enslaving is defined as the inability of the fingers to move or to produce force independently. Such finger enslaving has predominantly been investigated for isometric force tasks. The aim of this study was to assess whether the extent of force enslaving is dependent on relative finger movements. Ten right-handed subjects (22-30 years flexed the index finger while counteracting constant resistance forces (4, 6 and 8 N orthogonal to the fingertip. The other, non-instructed fingers were held in extension. EMG activities of the mm. flexor digitorum superficialis (FDS and extensor digitorum (ED in the regions corresponding to the index, middle and ring fingers were measured. Forces exerted by the non-instructed fingers increased substantially (by 0.2 to 1.4 N with flexion of the index finger, increasing the enslaving effect with respect to the static, pre-movement phase. Such changes in force were found 260-370 ms after the initiation of index flexion. The estimated MCP joint angle of the index finger at which forces exerted by the non-instructed fingers started to increase varied between 4° and 6°. In contrast to the finger forces, no significant changes in EMG activity of the FDS regions corresponding to the non-instructed fingers upon index finger flexion were found. This mismatch between forces and EMG of the non-instructed fingers, as well as the delay in force development are in agreement with connective tissue linkages being slack when the positions of the fingers are similar, but pulled taut when one finger moves relative to the others. Although neural factors cannot be excluded, our results suggest that mechanical connections between muscle-tendon structures were (at least partly responsible for the observed increase in force enslaving during index finger flexion.

Retrofitting Forced Air Combi Systems: A Cold Climate Field Assessment

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Schoenbauer, Ben [NorthernSTAR, St. Paul, MN (United States); Bohac, Dave [NorthernSTAR, St. Paul, MN (United States); McAlpine, Jack [NorthernSTAR, St. Paul, MN (United States); Hewett, Martha [NorthernSTAR, St. Paul, MN (United States)

2017-06-01

This project analyzed combined condensing water heaters or boilers and hydronic air coils to provide high efficiency domestic hot water (DHW) and forced air space heating. Called "combi" systems, they provided similar space and water heating performance less expensively than installing two condensing appliances. The system's installed costs were cheaper than installing a condensing furnace and either a condensing tankless or condensing storage water heater. However, combi costs must mature and be reduced before they are competitive with a condensing furnace and power vented water heater (energy factor of 0.60). Better insulation and tighter envelopes are reducing space heating loads for new and existing homes. For many homes, decreased space heating loads make it possible for both space and domestic water heating loads to be provided with a single heating plant. These systems can also eliminate safety issues associated with natural draft appliances through the use of one common sealed combustion vent. The combined space and water heating approach was not a new idea. Past systems have used non-condensing heating plants, which limited their usefulness in climates with high heating loads. Previous laboratory work (Schoenbauer et al. 2012a) showed that proper installation was necessary to achieve condensing with high efficiency appliances. Careful consideration was paid to proper system sizing and minimizing the water temperature returning from the air handling unit to facilitate condensing operation.

Retrofitting Forced Air Combi Systems: A Cold Climate Field Assessment

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Schoenbauer, Ben [Univ. of Minnesota, St. Paul, MN (United States). NorthernSTAR Building America Partnership; Bohac, Dave [Univ. of Minnesota, St. Paul, MN (United States). NorthernSTAR Building America Partnership; McAlpine, Jake [Univ. of Minnesota, St. Paul, MN (United States). NorthernSTAR Building America Partnership; Hewett, Martha [Univ. of Minnesota, St. Paul, MN (United States). NorthernSTAR Building America Partnership

2017-06-23

This project analyzed combined condensing water heaters or boilers and hydronic air coils to provide high efficiency domestic hot water (DHW) and forced air space heating. Called 'combi' systems, they provided similar space and water heating performance less expensively than installing two condensing appliances. The system's installed costs were cheaper than installing a condensing furnace and either a condensing tankless or condensing storage water heater. However, combi costs must mature and be reduced before they are competitive with a condensing furnace and power vented water heater (energy factor of 0.60). Better insulation and tighter envelopes are reducing space heating loads for new and existing homes. For many homes, decreased space heating loads make it possible for both space and domestic water heating loads to be provided with a single heating plant. These systems can also eliminate safety issues associated with natural draft appliances through the use of one common sealed combustion vent. The combined space and water heating approach was not a new idea. Past systems have used non-condensing heating plants, which limited their usefulness in climates with high heating loads. Previous laboratory work (Schoenbauer et al. 2012a) showed that proper installation was necessary to achieve condensing with high efficiency appliances. Careful consideration was paid to proper system sizing and minimizing the water temperature returning from the air handling unit to facilitate condensing operation.

Results from the BRACE 1.5 study: Climate change impacts of 1.5 C and 2 C warming

Science.gov (United States)

O'Neill, B. C.; Anderson, B.; Monaghan, A. J.; Ren, X.; Sanderson, B.; Tebaldi, C.

2017-12-01

In 2015, 195 countries negotiated the Paris Agreement on climate change, which set long-term goals of limiting global mean warming to well below 2 C and possibly 1.5 C. This event stimulated substantial scientific interest in climate outcomes and impacts on society associated with those levels of warming. Recently, the first set of global climate model simulations explicitly designed to meet those targets were undertaken with the Community Earth System Model (CESM) for use by the research community (Sanderson et al, accepted). The BRACE 1.5 project models societal impacts from these climate outcomes, combined with assumptions about future socioeconomic conditions according to the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways. These analyses build on a recently completed study of the Benefits of Reduced Anthropogenic Climate changE (BRACE), published as a set of 20 papers in Climatic Change, which examined the difference in impacts between two higher scenarios resulting in about 2.5 C and 3.7 C warming by late this century. BRACE 1.5 consists of a set of six papers to be submitted to a special collection in Environmental Research Letters that takes a similar approach but focuses on impacts at 1.5 and 2 C warming. We ask whether impacts differ substantially between the two climate scenarios, accounting for uncertainty in climate outcomes through the use of initial condition ensembles of CESM simulations, and in societal conditions by using alternative SSP-based development pathways. Impact assessment focuses on the health and agricultural sectors; modeling approaches include the use of a global mutli-region CGE model for economic analysis, both a process-based and an empirical crop model, a model of spatial population change, a model of climatic suitability for the aedes aegypti mosquito, and an epidemiological model of heat-related mortality. A methodological analysis also evaluates the use of climate model emulation techniques for providing climate information sufficient to

Climatic and non-climatic drivers of spatiotemporal maize-area dynamics across the northern limit for maize production

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Odgaard, Mette Vestergaard; Bøcher, Peder Klith; Dalgaard, Tommy

2011-01-01

It is expected that the ongoing anthropogenic climate change will drive changes in agricultural production and its geographic distribution. Here, we assess the extent to which climate change is already driving spatiotemporal dynamics in maize production in Denmark. We use advanced spatial...... regression modeling with multi-model averaging to assess the extent to which the recent spatiotemporal dynamics of the maize area in Denmark are driven by climate (temperature as represented by maize heating units [MHU] and growing-season precipitation), climate change and non-climatic factors (cattle...... cultivation and cattle farming, probably reflecting a change to a more favorable climate for maize cultivation: in the beginning of the study period, northern areas were mostly too cold for maize cultivation, irrespective of cattle density, but this limitation has been diminishing as climate has warmed...

Economic Value of Narrowing the Uncertainty in Climate Sensitivity: Decadal Change in Shortwave Cloud Radiative Forcing and Low Cloud Feedback

Science.gov (United States)

Wielicki, B. A.; Cooke, R. M.; Golub, A. A.; Mlynczak, M. G.; Young, D. F.; Baize, R. R.

2016-12-01

Several previous studies have been published on the economic value of narrowing the uncertainty in climate sensitivity (Cooke et al. 2015, Cooke et al. 2016, Hope, 2015). All three of these studies estimated roughly 10 Trillion U.S. dollars for the Net Present Value and Real Option Value at a discount rate of 3%. This discount rate is the nominal discount rate used in the U.S. Social Cost of Carbon Memo (2010). The Cooke et al studies approached this problem by examining advances in accuracy of global temperature measurements, while the Hope 2015 study did not address the type of observations required. While temperature change is related to climate sensitivity, large uncertainties of a factor of 3 in current anthropogenic radiative forcing (IPCC, 2013) would need to be solved for advanced decadal temperature change observations to assist the challenge of narrowing climate sensitivity. The present study takes a new approach by extending the Cooke et al. 2015,2016 papers to replace observations of temperature change to observations of decadal change in the effects of changing clouds on the Earths radiative energy balance, a measurement known as Cloud Radiative Forcing, or Cloud Radiative Effect. Decadal change in this observation is direclty related to the largest uncertainty in climate sensitivity which is cloud feedback from changing amount of low clouds, primarily low clouds over the world's oceans. As a result, decadal changes in shortwave cloud radiative forcing are more directly related to cloud feedback uncertainty which is the dominant uncertainty in climate sensitivity. This paper will show results for the new approach, and allow an examination of the sensitivity of economic value results to different observations used as a constraint on uncertainty in climate sensitivity. The analysis suggests roughly a doubling of economic value to 20 Trillion Net Present Value or Real Option Value at 3% discount rate. The higher economic value results from two changes: a

Magnetoresistance properties of Fe0,2C0,8 composite materials pre and post gamma irradiated at 250 kGy dose

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yunasfi; Setyo Purwanto; Wisnu A A

2009-01-01

Research about change of, magnetoresistance properties of Fe 0,2 C 0,8 composite materials pre and post gamma irradiation at a dose of 250 kGy was carried out. Fe 0,2 C 0,8 was prepared by mixing of Fe and C powder with the ratio of Fe : C set on 20:80 in weight %. In this research, the phase structure and magnetic properties of Fe 0,2 C 0,8 composite materials after 250 KGy dose of gamma irradiation have been measured and analyzed. The phase structure of Fe 0,2 C 0,8 was analyzed using X-ray diffractometer (XRD), whole the magnetoresistance properties was characterized using Four Point Probe method. The analyzing results showed the decreasing of X-ray diffraction peak intensity, but also in the same time showed the increasing of magnetoresistance properties after gamma irradiation. The enhancement of magnetoresistance value reached 5 times at 7,5 kOe magnetic field. This enhancement was caused due to structure defect within Fe 0,2 C 0,8 composite initiated by interaction between radiation of gamma ray and composite materials that further causes a change of magnetic interaction intensity in this materials. (author)

The non-linear paradigm: The climate system as an egg box''

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Iversen, Trond

2000-01-01

The article is the last of three dealing with the problems of climatic forecasting. It presents various ways of applying models and points out that regarding the climate system as non-linear and chaotic may be useful for interpreting observations and models. Some applications of the paradigm are presented. The emphasis is on climatic changes due to energy and human activities

Sub-Angstrom oscillation amplitude non-contact atomic force microscopy for lateral force gradient measurement

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Atabak, Mehrdad; Unverdi, Ozhan; Ozer, H. Ozguer; Oral, Ahmet

2009-01-01

We report the first results from novel sub-Angstrom oscillation amplitude non-contact atomic force microscopy developed for lateral force gradient measurements. Quantitative lateral force gradients between a tungsten tip and Si(1 1 1)-(7 x 7) surface can be measured using this microscope. Simultaneous lateral force gradient and scanning tunnelling microscope images of single and multi atomic steps are obtained. In our measurement, tunnel current is used as feedback. The lateral stiffness contrast has been observed to be 2.5 N/m at single atomic step, in contrast to 13 N/m at multi atomic step on Si(1 1 1) surface. We also carried out a series of lateral stiffness-distance spectroscopy. We observed lateral stiffness-distance curves exhibit sharp increase in the stiffness as the sample is approached towards the surface. We usually observed positive stiffness and sometimes going into slightly negative region.

The Copernicus programme and its Climate Change Service (C3S): a European answer to Climate Change

Science.gov (United States)

Pinty, Bernard; Thepaut, Jean-Noel; Dee, Dick

2016-07-01

In November 2014, The European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) signed an agreement with the European Commission to deliver two of the Copernicus Earth Observation Programme Services on the Commission's behalf. The ECMWF delivered services - the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) and Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS) - will bring a consistent standard to how we measure and predict atmospheric conditions and climate change. They will maximise the potential of past, current and future earth observations - ground, ocean, airborne, satellite - and analyse these to monitor and predict atmospheric conditions and in the future, climate change. With the wealth of free and open data that the services provide, they will help business users to assess the impact of their business decisions and make informed choices, delivering a more energy efficient and climate aware economy. These sound investment decisions now will not only stimulate growth in the short term, but reduce the impact of climate change on the economy and society in the future. C3S is in its proof of concept phase and through its climate data store will provide global and regional climate data reanalyses; multi-model seasonal forecasts; customisable visual data to enable examination of wide range of scenarios and model the impact of changes; access to all the underlying data, including climate data records from various satellite and in-situ observations. In addition, C3S will provide key indicators on climate change drivers (such as carbon dioxide) and impacts (such as reducing glaciers). The aim of these indicators will be to support European adaptation and mitigation policies in a number of economic sectors. The presentation will provide an overview of this newly created Service, its various components and activities, and a roadmap towards achieving a fully operational European Climate Service at the horizon 2019-2020. It will focus on the requirements for quality-assured Observation

How Hot was Africa during the Mid-Holocene? Reexamining Africa's Thermal History via integrated Climate and Proxy System Modeling

Science.gov (United States)

Dee, S.; Russell, J. M.; Morrill, C.

2017-12-01

Climate models predict Africa will warm by up to 5°C in the coming century. Reconstructions of African temperature since the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) have made fundamental contributions to our understanding of past, present, and future climate and can help constrain predictions from general circulation models (GCMs). However, many of these reconstructions are based on proxies of lake temperature, so the confounding influences of lacustrine processes may complicate our interpretations of past changes in tropical climate. These proxy-specific uncertainties require robust methodology for data-model comparison. We develop a new proxy system model (PSM) for paleolimnology to facilitate data-model comparison and to fully characterize uncertainties in climate reconstructions. Output from GCMs are used to force the PSM to simulate lake temperature, hydrology, and associated proxy uncertainties. We compare reconstructed East African lake and air temperatures in individual records and in a stack of 9 lake records to those predicted by our PSM forced with Paleoclimate Model Intercomparison Project (PMIP3) simulations, focusing on the mid-Holocene (6 kyr BP). We additionally employ single-forcing transient climate simulations from TraCE (10 kyr to 4 kyr B.P. and historical), as well as 200-yr time slice simulations from CESM1.0 to run the lake PSM. We test the sensitivity of African climate change during the mid-Holocene to orbital, greenhouse gas, and ice-sheet forcing in single-forcing simulations, and investigate dynamical hypotheses for these changes. Reconstructions of tropical African temperature indicate 1-2ºC warming during the mid-Holocene relative to the present, similar to changes predicted in the coming decades. However, most climate models underestimate the warming observed in these paleoclimate data (Fig. 1, 6kyr B.P.). We investigate this discrepancy using the new lake PSM and climate model simulations, with attention to the (potentially non

Determinants of palm species distributions across Africa: the relative roles of climate, non-climatic environmental factors, and spatial constraints

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Overgaard, Anne Blach; Svenning, J.-C.; Dransfield, John

2010-01-01

-climatic environmental predictors, the latter having no discernible effect beyond the climatic control. Hence, at the continental scale, climate constitutes the only strong environmental control of palm species distributions in Africa. With regard to the most important climatic predictors of African palm distributions......, water-related factors were most important for 25 of the 29 species analysed. The strong response of palm distributions to climate in combination with the importance of non-environmental spatial constraints suggests that African palms will be sensitive to future climate changes, but that their ability...

Differential and enhanced response to climate forcing in diarrheal disease due to rotavirus across a megacity of the developing world.

Science.gov (United States)

Martinez, Pamela P; King, Aaron A; Yunus, Mohammad; Faruque, A S G; Pascual, Mercedes

2016-04-12

The role of climate forcing in the population dynamics of infectious diseases has typically been revealed via retrospective analyses of incidence records aggregated across space and, in particular, over whole cities. Here, we focus on the transmission dynamics of rotavirus, the main diarrheal disease in infants and young children, within the megacity of Dhaka, Bangladesh. We identify two zones, the densely urbanized core and the more rural periphery, that respond differentially to flooding. Moreover, disease seasonality differs substantially between these regions, spanning variation comparable to the variation from tropical to temperate regions. By combining process-based models with an extensive disease surveillance record, we show that the response to climate forcing is mainly seasonal in the core, where a more endemic transmission resulting from an asymptomatic reservoir facilitates the response to the monsoons. The force of infection in this monsoon peak can be an order of magnitude larger than the force of infection in the more epidemic periphery, which exhibits little or no postmonsoon outbreak in a pattern typical of nearby rural areas. A typically smaller peak during the monsoon season nevertheless shows sensitivity to interannual variability in flooding. High human density in the core is one explanation for enhanced transmission during troughs and an associated seasonal monsoon response in this diarrheal disease, which unlike cholera, has not been widely viewed as climate-sensitive. Spatial demographic, socioeconomic, and environmental heterogeneity can create reservoirs of infection and enhance the sensitivity of disease systems to climate forcing, especially in the populated cities of the developing world.

Impact of preindustrial to present-day changes in short-lived pollutant emissions on atmospheric composition and climate forcing

Science.gov (United States)

Naik, Vaishali; Horowitz, Larry W.; Fiore, Arlene M.; Ginoux, Paul; Mao, Jingqiu; Aghedo, Adetutu M.; Levy, Hiram

2013-07-01

We describe and evaluate atmospheric chemistry in the newly developed Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory chemistry-climate model (GFDL AM3) and apply it to investigate the net impact of preindustrial (PI) to present (PD) changes in short-lived pollutant emissions (ozone precursors, sulfur dioxide, and carbonaceous aerosols) and methane concentration on atmospheric composition and climate forcing. The inclusion of online troposphere-stratosphere interactions, gas-aerosol chemistry, and aerosol-cloud interactions (including direct and indirect aerosol radiative effects) in AM3 enables a more complete representation of interactions among short-lived species, and thus their net climate impact, than was considered in previous climate assessments. The base AM3 simulation, driven with observed sea surface temperature (SST) and sea ice cover (SIC) over the period 1981-2007, generally reproduces the observed mean magnitude, spatial distribution, and seasonal cycle of tropospheric ozone and carbon monoxide. The global mean aerosol optical depth in our base simulation is within 5% of satellite measurements over the 1982-2006 time period. We conduct a pair of simulations in which only the short-lived pollutant emissions and methane concentrations are changed from PI (1860) to PD (2000) levels (i.e., SST, SIC, greenhouse gases, and ozone-depleting substances are held at PD levels). From the PI to PD, we find that changes in short-lived pollutant emissions and methane have caused the tropospheric ozone burden to increase by 39% and the global burdens of sulfate, black carbon, and organic carbon to increase by factors of 3, 2.4, and 1.4, respectively. Tropospheric hydroxyl concentration decreases by 7%, showing that increases in OH sinks (methane, carbon monoxide, nonmethane volatile organic compounds, and sulfur dioxide) dominate over sources (ozone and nitrogen oxides) in the model. Combined changes in tropospheric ozone and aerosols cause a net negative top

Observationally constrained estimates of carbonaceous aerosol radiative forcing.

Science.gov (United States)

Chung, Chul E; Ramanathan, V; Decremer, Damien

2012-07-17

Carbonaceous aerosols (CA) emitted by fossil and biomass fuels consist of black carbon (BC), a strong absorber of solar radiation, and organic matter (OM). OM scatters as well as absorbs solar radiation. The absorbing component of OM, which is ignored in most climate models, is referred to as brown carbon (BrC). Model estimates of the global CA radiative forcing range from 0 to 0.7 Wm(-2), to be compared with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's estimate for the pre-Industrial to the present net radiative forcing of about 1.6 Wm(-2). This study provides a model-independent, observationally based estimate of the CA direct radiative forcing. Ground-based aerosol network data is integrated with field data and satellite-based aerosol observations to provide a decadal (2001 through 2009) global view of the CA optical properties and direct radiative forcing. The estimated global CA direct radiative effect is about 0.75 Wm(-2) (0.5 to 1.0). This study identifies the global importance of BrC, which is shown to contribute about 20% to 550-nm CA solar absorption globally. Because of the inclusion of BrC, the net effect of OM is close to zero and the CA forcing is nearly equal to that of BC. The CA direct radiative forcing is estimated to be about 0.65 (0.5 to about 0.8) Wm(-2), thus comparable to or exceeding that by methane. Caused in part by BrC absorption, CAs have a net warming effect even over open biomass-burning regions in Africa and the Amazon.

A global database with parallel measurements to study non-climatic changes

Science.gov (United States)

Venema, Victor; Auchmann, Renate; Aguilar, Enric; Auer, Ingeborg; Azorin-Molina, Cesar; Brandsma, Theo; Brunetti, Michele; Dienst, Manuel; Domonkos, Peter; Gilabert, Alba; Lindén, Jenny; Milewska, Ewa; Nordli, Øyvind; Prohom, Marc; Rennie, Jared; Stepanek, Petr; Trewin, Blair; Vincent, Lucie; Willett, Kate; Wolff, Mareile

2016-04-01

In this work we introduce the rationale behind the ongoing compilation of a parallel measurements database, in the framework of the International Surface Temperatures Initiative (ISTI) and with the support of the World Meteorological Organization. We intend this database to become instrumental for a better understanding of inhomogeneities affecting the evaluation of long-term changes in daily climate data. Long instrumental climate records are usually affected by non-climatic changes, due to, e.g., (i) station relocations, (ii) instrument height changes, (iii) instrumentation changes, (iv) observing environment changes, (v) different sampling intervals or data collection procedures, among others. These so-called inhomogeneities distort the climate signal and can hamper the assessment of long-term trends and variability of climate. Thus to study climatic changes we need to accurately distinguish non-climatic and climatic signals. The most direct way to study the influence of non-climatic changes on the distribution and to understand the reasons for these biases is the analysis of parallel measurements representing the old and new situation (in terms of e.g. instruments, location, different radiation shields, etc.). According to the limited number of available studies and our understanding of the causes of inhomogeneity, we expect that they will have a strong impact on the tails of the distribution of air temperatures and most likely of other climate elements. Our abilities to statistically homogenize daily data will be increased by systematically studying different causes of inhomogeneity replicated through parallel measurements. Current studies of non-climatic changes using parallel data are limited to local and regional case studies. However, the effect of specific transitions depends on the local climate and the most interesting climatic questions are about the systematic large-scale biases produced by transitions that occurred in many regions. Important

14 CFR 1203b.105 - Use of non-deadly physical force when making an arrest.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-01-01

... Use of non-deadly physical force when making an arrest. When a security force officer has the right to... believes to be the use or threat of imminent use of non-deadly physical force by the offender. Verbal abuse...

The ocean's role in polar climate change: asymmetric Arctic and Antarctic responses to greenhouse gas and ozone forcing.

Science.gov (United States)

Marshall, John; Armour, Kyle C; Scott, Jeffery R; Kostov, Yavor; Hausmann, Ute; Ferreira, David; Shepherd, Theodore G; Bitz, Cecilia M

2014-07-13

In recent decades, the Arctic has been warming and sea ice disappearing. By contrast, the Southern Ocean around Antarctica has been (mainly) cooling and sea-ice extent growing. We argue here that interhemispheric asymmetries in the mean ocean circulation, with sinking in the northern North Atlantic and upwelling around Antarctica, strongly influence the sea-surface temperature (SST) response to anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) forcing, accelerating warming in the Arctic while delaying it in the Antarctic. Furthermore, while the amplitude of GHG forcing has been similar at the poles, significant ozone depletion only occurs over Antarctica. We suggest that the initial response of SST around Antarctica to ozone depletion is one of cooling and only later adds to the GHG-induced warming trend as upwelling of sub-surface warm water associated with stronger surface westerlies impacts surface properties. We organize our discussion around 'climate response functions' (CRFs), i.e. the response of the climate to 'step' changes in anthropogenic forcing in which GHG and/or ozone-hole forcing is abruptly turned on and the transient response of the climate revealed and studied. Convolutions of known or postulated GHG and ozone-hole forcing functions with their respective CRFs then yield the transient forced SST response (implied by linear response theory), providing a context for discussion of the differing warming/cooling trends in the Arctic and Antarctic. We speculate that the period through which we are now passing may be one in which the delayed warming of SST associated with GHG forcing around Antarctica is largely cancelled by the cooling effects associated with the ozone hole. By mid-century, however, ozone-hole effects may instead be adding to GHG warming around Antarctica but with diminished amplitude as the ozone hole heals. The Arctic, meanwhile, responding to GHG forcing but in a manner amplified by ocean heat transport, may continue to warm at an accelerating rate.

Effects of repulsive three-body force in 12C + 12C scattering at 100A MeV

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

W.W. Qu

2015-12-01

Full Text Available The angular distribution of 12C + 12C scattering at an incident energy of 100A MeV has been measured. The elastic and inelastic scatterings in 12C to the excitation energies of up to ∼45 MeV were measured simultaneously for the first time with the high-resolution Grand Raiden spectrometer at the Research Center for Nuclear Physics (RCNP. The angular distributions of the elastic scattering to the ground state (01+ and inelastic scattering to the 4.44 MeV (21+ excited state were precisely obtained in the angular range of 1.0°–7.5° with a step of 0.1°. Additionally, the angular distribution was obtained for the sum of the cross sections for excitation energies above the 4.44 MeV state up to 11 MeV, which includes the 7.65 MeV (02+, 9.64 MeV (31−, and 10.30 MeV (22+ states, in addition to probably the simultaneous excitation of the 4.44 MeV state in the projectile and the target nuclei. Those combined data provide a means to study the effects of channel coupling on the elastic cross section. The observed angular distributions are compared with theoretical calculations based on three double-folding models with complex G-matrix interactions, the CEG07b, MPa, and ESC models. The importance of three-body repulsive forces included in the CEG07b and MPa models will be discussed.

Intensification of Climate-Carbon Feedbacks after 2100 and Implications for Disturbance Regimes

Science.gov (United States)

Randerson, J. T.; Lindsay, K. T.; Munoz, E.; Fu, W.; Hoffman, F. M.; Moore, J. K.; Doney, S. C.; Mahowald, N. M.; Bonan, G. B.

2014-12-01

Long-term ecosystem and carbon cycle responses to climate change are needed to inform mitigation policy, yet our understanding of how these responses may evolve after 2100 remains highly uncertain. Using the Community Earth System Model (version 1.0), we quantified climate-carbon feedbacks from 1850 to 2300 for the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 (and its extension). In three simulations, land and ocean biogeochemical models were exposed to the same trajectory of increasing atmospheric CO2. In one simulation, atmospheric CO2 and other forcing agents were radiatively active (fully coupled), modifying temperature and other aspects of climate. In another, CO2 was radiatively uncoupled, and in the third, both CO2 and other atmospheric forcing agents (including CH4, N2O, and aerosols) were radiatively uncoupled. In the fully coupled simulation, global mean air temperatures increased by 9.3°C from 1850 to 2300, with 4.4°C of this warming occurring after 2100. Without radiative forcing from CO2, cumulative warming was much lower at 2.4°C, but exceeding 2°C targets needed to avoid dangerous interference with the climate system. In response to climate change, ocean and land rates of carbon uptake were reduced, with the size of the impact increasing over time. In the oceans, reductions in cumulative carbon uptake from climate change increased from 3% during the 20th century to 40% during the 23rd century. By 2300, climate change had reduced cumulative ocean uptake by 330 Pg C, from 1410 Pg C to 1080 Pg C. Most of this reduction occurred after 2100 as a consequence of increases in surface stratification and decreases in Atlantic meridional overturning circulation. Land fluxes similarly diverged over time, with climate change inducing a cumulative loss of 230 Pg C by 2300. On land the intensification of the hydrological cycle globally increased terrestrial water storage, although asymmetric responses were observed across different continents in the tropics. Net

Non-linear vibrations induced by fluidelastic forces in tube bundles

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Langre, E. de; Hadj-Sadok, C.; Beaufils, B.

1992-01-01

We present in this paper computations of the response of a loosely supported tube to fluid elastic forces. Several models of forces are considered, including negative damping, coupling forces and Price and Paidoussis' model. Unidirectional and bidirectional motions are studied, special attention being paid to the evolution of dynamic parameters influencing wear and to the changes in the dynamic regimes. The influence of the coefficient of friction is also analysed. A corrective methodology is proposed for the use of the negative damping model in non-linear computations

Projected drought risk in 1.5°C and 2°C warmer climates

Science.gov (United States)

Lehner, F.; Coats, S.; Stocker, T. F.; Pendergrass, A. G.; Sanderson, B. M.; Raible, C.; Smerdon, J. E.

2017-12-01

The large socioeconomic costs of droughts make them a crucial target for impact assessments of climate change scenarios. Using multiple drought metrics and a set of simulations with the Community Earth System Model (CESM) targeting 1.5°C and 2°C above preindustrial global mean temperatures, we investigate changes in aridity and the risk of consecutive drought years. The latter metric is motivated by recent droughts in California and the US Southwest in general, where consecutive years of moderate precipitation deficit can quickly lead to significant drought and elevated pressure on water resources. If warming is limited to 2°C, these simulations suggest little change in drought risk for the U.S. Southwest and Central Plains compared to present day, an interesting result that arises from a delicate balance between increases in evaporative demand and precipitation in CESM in that region. In the Mediterranean, central Europe, and a number of other regions across the globe, however, drought risk increases significantly for both 1.5°C and 2°C warming targets, and the additional 0.5°C of the 2°C climate leads to significantly higher drought risk. Our study suggests that limiting anthropogenic warming to 1.5°C rather than 2°C, as aspired to by the Paris Climate Agreement, may have benefits for future drought risk but that such benefits may be regional and in some cases highly uncertain. We will therefore also discuss the robustness of results across different drought metrics as well as the model uncertainties associated with drought projections for low warming targets.

Non-monotonic resonance in a spatially forced Lengyel-Epstein model

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Haim, Lev [Physics Department, Ben-Gurion University of the Negev, Beer-Sheva 84105 (Israel); Department of Oncology, Soroka University Medical Center, Beer-Sheva 84101 (Israel); Hagberg, Aric [Center for Nonlinear Studies, Theoretical Division, Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, New Mexico 87545 (United States); Meron, Ehud [Physics Department, Ben-Gurion University of the Negev, Beer-Sheva 84105 (Israel); Department of Solar Energy and Environmental Physics, BIDR, Ben-Gurion University of the Negev, Sede Boqer Campus, Midreshet Ben-Gurion 84990 (Israel)

2015-06-15

We study resonant spatially periodic solutions of the Lengyel-Epstein model modified to describe the chlorine dioxide-iodine-malonic acid reaction under spatially periodic illumination. Using multiple-scale analysis and numerical simulations, we obtain the stability ranges of 2:1 resonant solutions, i.e., solutions with wavenumbers that are exactly half of the forcing wavenumber. We show that the width of resonant wavenumber response is a non-monotonic function of the forcing strength, and diminishes to zero at sufficiently strong forcing. We further show that strong forcing may result in a π/2 phase shift of the resonant solutions, and argue that the nonequilibrium Ising-Bloch front bifurcation can be reversed. We attribute these behaviors to an inherent property of forcing by periodic illumination, namely, the increase of the mean spatial illumination as the forcing amplitude is increased.

Radiation embrittlement behavior of fine-grained molybdenum alloy with 0.2 wt%TiC addition

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kitsunai, Y. [Tohoku University (Japan); Kurishita, H. [International Research Center for Nuclear Materials Science, Institute for Materials research (IMR), Tohoku University, Oarai, Ibaraki 311-1313 (Japan)]. E-mail: kurishi@imr.tohoku.ac.jp; Kuwabara, T. [Tohoku University (Japan); Narui, M. [International Research Center for Nuclear Materials Science, Institute for Materials research (IMR), Tohoku University, Oarai, Ibaraki 311-1313 (Japan); Hasegawa, M. [International Research Center for Nuclear Materials Science, Institute for Materials research (IMR), Tohoku University, Oarai, Ibaraki 311-1313 (Japan); Takida, T. [A.L.M.T. TECH Inc., 2 Iwasekoshi-machi, Toyama 931-8543 (Japan); Takebe, K. [A.L.M.T. TECH Inc., 2 Iwasekoshi-machi, Toyama 931-8543 (Japan)

2005-11-15

In order to elucidate the effects of pre-irradiation microstructures and irradiation conditions on radiation embrittlement and radiation-induced ductilization (RIDU), fine-grained Mo-0.2 wt%TiC specimens with high and low reduction rates in plastic working, which are designated as MTC-02H and MTC-02L, respectively, were prepared by powder metallurgical methods. The specimens were neutron irradiated to 0.1-0.15 dpa with controlled 1-cycle and 4-cycle heating between 573 and 773 K, and 473 and 673 K, respectively, in JMTR. Vickers microhardness and three-point bending impact tests and TEM microstructural examinations were made. The degree of radiation embrittlement, assessed by DBTT shift due to irradiation, was strongly dependent on the reduction rate and cycle number. The 4-cycle irradiation suppressed the radiation embrittlement compared with the 1-cycle irradiation, and the suppression was much more significant in MTC-02L than in MTC-02H. The observed behavior is discussed in connection with RIDU and microstructural evolution caused by the 4-cycle irradiation.

The impact of aerosol emissions on the 1.5 °C pathways

Science.gov (United States)

Hienola, Anca; Partanen, Antti-Ilari; Pietikäinen, Joni-Pekka; O’Donnell, Declan; Korhonen, Hannele; Damon Matthews, H.; Laaksonen, Ari

2018-04-01

To assess the impact of anthropogenic aerosol emission reduction on limiting global temperature increase to 1.5 °C or 2 °C above pre-industrial levels, two climate modeling approaches have been used (MAGICC6, and a combination of ECHAM-HAMMOZ and the UVic ESCM), with two aerosol control pathways under two greenhouse gas (GHG) reduction scenarios. We found that aerosol emission reductions associated with CO2 co-emissions had a significant warming effect during the first half of the century and that the near-term warming is dependent on the pace of aerosol emission reduction. The modeling results show that these aerosol emission reductions account for about 0.5 °C warming relative to 2015, on top of the 1 °C above pre-industrial levels that were already reached in 2015. We found also that the decreases in aerosol emissions lead to different decreases in the magnitude of the aerosol radiative forcing in the two models. By 2100, the aerosol forcing is projected by ECHAM–UVic to diminish in magnitude by 0.96 W m‑2 and by MAGICC6 by 0.76 W m‑2 relative to 2000. Despite this discrepancy, the climate responses in terms of temperature are similar. Aggressive aerosol control due to air quality legislation affects the peak temperature, which is 0.2 °C–0.3 °C above the 1.5 °C limit even within the most ambitious CO2/GHG reduction scenario. At the end of the century, the temperature differences between aerosol reduction scenarios in the context of ambitious CO2 mitigation are negligible.

Postfire chaparral regeneration under mediterranean and non-mediterranean climates

Science.gov (United States)

Keeley, Jon E.; Fotheringham, Connie J.; Rundel, Philip W.

2012-01-01

This study compares postfire regeneration and diversity patterns in fire-prone chaparral shrublands from mediterranean (California) and non-mediterranean-type climates (Arizona). Vegetation sampling was conducted in tenth hectare plots with nested subplots for the first two years after fire. Floras in the two regions were compared with Jaccard's Index and importance of families and genera compared with dominance-diversity curves. Although there were 44 families in common between the two regions, the dominant families differed; Poaceae and Fabaceae in Arizona and Hydrophyllaceae and Rosaceae in California. Dominance diversity curves indicated in the first year a more equable distribution of families in Arizona than in California. Woody plants were much more dominant in the mediterranean climate and herbaceous plants more dominant in the bimodal rainfall climate. Species diversity was comparable in both regions at the lowest spatial scales but not at the tenth hectare scale. Due to the double growing season in the non-mediterranean region, the diversity for the first year comprised two different herbaceous floras in the fall and spring growing seasons. The Mediterranean climate in California, in contrast, had only a spring growing season and thus the total diversity for the first year was significantly greater in Arizona than in California for both annuals and herbaceous perennials. Chaparral in these two climate regimes share many dominant shrub species but the postfire communities are very different. Arizona chaparral has both a spring and fall growing season and these produce two very different postfire floras. When combined, the total annual diversity was substantially greater in Arizona chaparral.

Non-Colocated Kinesthetic Display Limits Compliance Discrimination in the Absence of Terminal Force Cues.

Science.gov (United States)

Brown, Jeremy D; Shelley, Mackenzie K; Gardner, Duane; Gansallo, Emmanuel A; Gillespie, R Brent

2016-01-01

An important goal of haptic display is to make available the action/reaction relationships that define interactions between the body and the physical world. While in physical world interactions reaction cues invariably impinge on the same part of the body involved in action (reaction and action are colocated), a haptic interface is quite capable of rendering feedback to a separate body part than that used for producing exploratory actions (non-colocated action and reaction). This most commonly occurs with the use of vibrotactile display, in which a cutaneous cue has been substituted for a kinesthetic cue (a kind of sensory substitution). In this paper, we investigate whether non-colocated force and displacement cues degrade the perception of compliance. Using a custom non-colocated kinesthetic display in which one hand controls displacement and the other senses force, we ask participants to discriminate between two virtual springs with matched terminal force and adjustable non-linearity. An additional condition includes one hand controlling displacement while the other senses force encoded in a vibrotactile cue. Results show that when the terminal force cue is unavailable, and even when sensory substitution is not involved, non-colocated kinesthetic displays degrade compliance discrimination relative to colocated kinesthetic displays. Compliance discrimination is also degraded with vibrotactile display of force. These findings suggest that non-colocated kinesthetic displays and, likewise, cutaneous sensory substitution displays should be avoided when discrimination of compliance is necessary for task success.

Long-term climate monitoring by the global climate observing system

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Karl, T.R.

1995-12-01

Is the climate warming? Is the hydrologic cycle changing? Is the atmospheric/oceanic circulation changing? Is the climate becoming more variable or extreme? Is radiative forcing of the climate changing? are complex questions not only from the standpoint of a multi-variate problem, but because of the various aspects of spatial and temporal sampling that must be considered on a global scale. The development of a Global Climate Observing System (GCOS) offers the opportunity for scientists to do something about existing observing deficiencies in light of the importance of documenting long-term climate changes that may already be affected by anthropogenic changes of atmospheric composition and land use as well as other naturally occurring changes. As an important step toward improving the present inadequacies, a workshop was held to help define the long-term monitoring requirements minimally needed to address the five questions posed above, with special emphasis on detecting anthropogenic climate change and its potential impact on managed and unmanaged systems The workshop focussed on three broad areas related to long-term climate monitoring: (a) the scientific rationale for the long-term climate products (including their accuracy, resolution, and homogeneity) required from our observing systems as related to climate monitoring and climate change detection and attribution; (b) the status of long-term climate products and the observing systems from which these data are derived; and (c) implementation strategies necessary to fulfill item (a) in light of existing systems. Item (c) was treated more in terms of feasibility rather than as a specific implementation plan. figs., tabs., refs

Extension of the PMV model to non-air-conditioned building in warm climates

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Fanger, Povl Ole; Toftum, Jørn

2002-01-01

The PMV model agrees well with high-quality field studies in buildings with HVAC systems, situated in cold, temperate and warm climates, studied during both summer and winter. In non-air-conditioned buildings in warm climates, occupants may sense the warmth as being less severe than the PMV...... predicts. The main reason is low expectations, but a metabolic rate that is estimated too high can also contribute to explaining the difference. An extension of the PMV model that includes an expectancy factor is introduced for use in non-air-conditioned buildings in warm climates. The extended PMV model...... agrees well with quality field studies in non-air-conditioned buildings of three continents....

Northern Hemisphere Winter Climate Response to Greenhouse Gas, Ozone, Solar and Volcanic Forcing

Science.gov (United States)

Shindell, Drew T.; Schmidt, Gavin A.; Miller, Ron L.; Rind, David; Hansen, James E. (Technical Monitor)

2001-01-01

The Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) climate/middle atmosphere model has been used to study the impacts of increasing greenhouse gases, polar ozone depletion, volcanic eruptions, and solar cycle variability. We focus on the projection of the induced responses onto Northern Hemisphere winter surface climate. Changes in the model's surface climate take place largely through enhancement of existing variability patterns, with greenhouse gases, polar ozone depletion and volcanic eruptions primarily affecting the Arctic Oscillation (AO) pattern. Perturbations descend from the stratosphere to the surface in the model by altering the propagation of planetary waves coming up from the surface, in accord with observational evidence. Models lacking realistic stratospheric dynamics fail to capture these wave flux changes. The results support the conclusion that the stratosphere plays a crucial role in recent AO trends. We show that in our climate model, while ozone depletion has a significant effect, greenhouse gas forcing is the only one capable of causing the large, sustained increase in the AO observed over recent decades. This suggests that the AO trend, and a concurrent strengthening of the stratospheric vortex over the Arctic, are very likely anthropogenic in origin.

ENSO's non-stationary and non-Gaussian character: the role of climate shifts

Science.gov (United States)

Boucharel, J.; Dewitte, B.; Garel, B.; Du Penhoat, Y.

2009-07-01

El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the dominant mode of climate variability in the Pacific, having socio-economic impacts on surrounding regions. ENSO exhibits significant modulation on decadal to inter-decadal time scales which is related to changes in its characteristics (onset, amplitude, frequency, propagation, and predictability). Some of these characteristics tend to be overlooked in ENSO studies, such as its asymmetry (the number and amplitude of warm and cold events are not equal) and the deviation of its statistics from those of the Gaussian distribution. These properties could be related to the ability of the current generation of coupled models to predict ENSO and its modulation. Here, ENSO's non-Gaussian nature and asymmetry are diagnosed from in situ data and a variety of models (from intermediate complexity models to full-physics coupled general circulation models (CGCMs)) using robust statistical tools initially designed for financial mathematics studies. In particular α-stable laws are used as theoretical background material to measure (and quantify) the non-Gaussian character of ENSO time series and to estimate the skill of ``naïve'' statistical models in producing deviation from Gaussian laws and asymmetry. The former are based on non-stationary processes dominated by abrupt changes in mean state and empirical variance. It is shown that the α-stable character of ENSO may result from the presence of climate shifts in the time series. Also, cool (warm) periods are associated with ENSO statistics having a stronger (weaker) tendency towards Gaussianity and lower (greater) asymmetry. This supports the hypothesis of ENSO being rectified by changes in mean state through nonlinear processes. The relationship between changes in mean state and nonlinearity (skewness) is further investigated both in the Zebiak and Cane (1987)'s model and the models of the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change (IPCC). Whereas there is a clear relationship in all

Interference of Locally Forced Internal Waves in Non-Uniform Stratifications

Science.gov (United States)

Supekar, Rohit; Peacock, Thomas

2017-11-01

Several studies have investigated the effect of constructive or destructive interference on the transmission of internal waves propagating through non-uniform stratifications. Such studies have been performed for internal waves that are spatiotemporally harmonic. To understand the effect of localization, we perform a theoretical and experimental study of the transmission of two-dimensional internal waves that are generated by a spatiotemporally localized boundary forcing. This is done by considering an idealized problem and applying a weakly viscous semi-analytic linear model. Parametric studies using this model show that localization leads to the disappearance of transmission peaks and troughs that would otherwise be present for a harmonic forcing. Laboratory experiments that we perform provide a clear indication of this physical effect. Based on the group velocity and angle of propagation of the internal waves, a practical criteria that assesses when the transmission peaks or troughs are evident, is obtained. It is found that there is a significant difference in the predicted energy transfer due to a harmonic and non-harmonic forcing which has direct implications to various physical forcings such as a storm over the ocean.

Origins of the Non-DLVO Force between Glass Surfaces in Aqueous Solution.

Science.gov (United States)

Adler, Joshua J.; Rabinovich, Yakov I.; Moudgil, Brij M.

2001-05-15

Direct measurement of surface forces has revealed that silica surfaces seem to have a short-range repulsion that is not accounted for in classical DLVO theory. The two leading hypotheses for the origin of the non-DLVO force are (i) structuring of water at the silica interface or (ii) water penetration into the surface resulting in a gel layer. In this article, the interaction of silica surfaces will be reviewed from the perspective of the non-DLVO force origin. In an attempt to more accurately describe the behavior of silica and glass surfaces, alternative models of how surfaces with gel layers should interact are proposed. It is suggested that a lessened van der Waals attraction originating from a thin gel layer may explain both the additional stability and the coagulation behavior of silica. It is important to understand the mechanisms underlying the existence of the non-DLVO force which is likely to have a major influence on the adsorption of polymers and surfactants used to modify the silica surface for practical applications in the ceramic, mineral, and microelectronic industries. Copyright 2001 Academic Press.

Plastic-covered agriculture forces the regional climate to change

Science.gov (United States)

Yang, D.; Chen, J.; Chen, X.; Cao, X.

2016-12-01

The practice of plastic-covered agriculture as a solution to moderate the dilemma of global food shortage, meanwhile, brings great pressure to the local environment. This research was conducted to reveal the impacts of plastic-covered agritulture on regional climate change by experimenting in a plastic greenhouse (PG) dominated area - Weifang district, Shandong province, China. Based on a new plastic greenhouse index (PGI) proposed in this study, we reconstructed the spatial distribution of PG across 1995-2015 in the study area. With that, land surface temperature (LST) dataset combined with surface evapotranspiration, surface reflectance and precipitation data, was applied to the probe of PG's climatic impacts. Results showed that PG, in the study area, has experienced a striking spatial expansion during the past 20 years, and more important, the expansion correlated strongly to the local climate change. It showed that the annual precipitation, in the study area, decreased during these years, which constrasts to a slightly increasing trend of the adjacent districts without PG construction. In addition, resulting from the greenhouse effect, PG area presented a harsher increase of surface temperature compared to the non-PG areas. Our study also telled that the evapotranspiration of PG area has been largely cutted down ascribing to the gas tightness of plastic materials, showing a decline around 40%. This indicates a way that the development of plastic-covered agriculture may contribute to the change of the local climate.

Numerical Modeling of Climatic Change from the Terminus Record of Lewis Glacier, Mount Kenya.

Science.gov (United States)

Kruss, Phillip Donald

decrease in the annual precipitation of about 160 (+OR-) 70 mm between the early 1880's and the very beginning of the 20th century followed by a secular air temperature rise of 0.35 (+OR-) 0.2(DEGREES)C during the first half of the 1900's, with most warming occurring after about 1920--these climatic changes together with associated albedo and cloudiness variation constitute the most likely cause of the Lewis Glacier wastage during the last 100 years. The modeling and interpretation techniques developed offer the potential for deriving climatic information from the long terminus records and dated geological evidence of past ice extents available for other glaciers. Given the difficulty of documenting climatic change by conventional techniques, the possible role for glaciers and other climate -sensitive environmental components in the monitoring of recent climatic change should be explored.

Synthesis and Characterization of Polyol-Assisted Nano Cu0.2Ni0.2Sn0.2Ba0.4 Fe2O4 by a Wet Hydroxyl Route

Science.gov (United States)

Pavithradevi, S.; Suriyanarayanan, N.; Boobalan, T.; Velumani, S.; Chandramohan, M.; Manivel Raja, M.

2017-08-01

Nanocrystalline spinel ferrite of composition Cu0.2Ni0.2Sn0.2Ba0.4 Fe2O4 has been synthesized by a wet hydroxyl chemical route in ethylene glycol as chelating agent and sodium hydroxide as precipitator at pH 8. Ethylene glycol has been used as the medium which serves as the solvent as well as a complexing agent. The synthesized particles are annealed at temperatures of 350°C, 700°C, and 1050°C. Thermogravimetric (TG) analysis confirms that at 240°C, ethylene glycol has evaporated completely, and a stable phase is formed above 670°C. Fourier transform infrared (FT-IR) spectroscopy of mixed Cu0.2Ni0.2Sn0.2Ba0.4 ferrite nanoparticles like as synthesized and annealed at 1050°C are recorded between 400 cm-1 and 4000 cm-1. FT-IR appraises the structural formation of Cu0.2Ni0.2Sn0.2Ba0.4 Fe2O4 between the as-synthesized sample and the sample annealed at 1050°C. Structural characterizations of all the samples are carried out by x-ray diffraction (XRD) technique. XRD reveals that the particle size increases with the increase in annealing temperatures. Transmission electron microscopy (TEM) and scanning electron microscopy (SEM) confirms that the particles are flaky and spherical with the crystallite size in the range of 11-27 nm. The decrement of dielectric properties, like dielectric constant and dielectric loss, with the increment of frequency as seen in all the samples is an usual dielectric behavior of spinel ferrites. The lack of net magnetization is noticed immediately when the applied magnetic field is removed which prompts superparamagnetic behavior, as seen in all the samples.

Some image artefacts in non-contact mode force microscopy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dinte, B.P.; Watson, G.S.; Dobson, J.F.; Myhra, S.

1996-01-01

Full text: Non-contact mode Atomic Force Microscopy (AFM), performed in air, of two-dimensional hexagonal close-packed (2DHCP) layers of 200 nm diameter polystyrene spheres yields images containing artefacts ('ghost spheres') at layer edges and vacancy sites. The origin of these artefacts is clearly not the simple convolution of the tip and sample geometries, but must be the interaction between them. A computer program was written to simulate the experimental contours, assuming that the only force between the tip and the sample is the van der Waals (dispersion) force, and that the contours traced by the AFM tip are those of constant force derivative. The energy was calculated by integrating R -6 over the volumes of the tip and the sample, with a (constant) arbitrary scaling factor. The experimental contours were reproduced by the simulations, except for the 'ghost' artefacts. The assumption that there is only a dispersion force is thus incorrect. The experiments were performed in air, so that all surfaces were coated by a layer of adsorbed moisture. It is proposed that meniscus forces may be the origin of the artefacts

Climate Change to the End of the Millennium. An Editorial Review Essay

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lenton, T.M.

2006-01-01

Anthropogenic climate change will continue long after anthropogenic CO2 emissions cease. Atmospheric CO2, global warming and ocean circulation will approach equilibrium on the millennial timescale, whereas thermal expansion of the ocean, ice sheet melt and their contributions to sea level rise are unlikely to be complete. Atmospheric CO2 in year 3000 depends non-linearly on the total amount of CO2 emitted and is very likely to exceed the present level of circa 380 ppmv. CO2 is doubled for circa 2500 GtC emitted, quadrupled if all circa 5000 GtC of conventional fossil fuel resources are emitted, and increases by a factor of circa 32 if a further 20,000 GtC of exotic fossil fuel resources are emitted. Global warming in year 3000 will also depend on climate sensitivity to doubling CO2, which is most probably circa 3C but highly uncertain. Thermal expansion will contribute 0.5-2 m to millennial sea level rise for each doubling of CO2. The Greenland ice sheet could melt completely within the millennium under > 8 x CO2, adding a further circa 7 m to sea level. The rate of melt depends on the magnitude of forcing above a regional warming threshold of 1-3C. The West Antarctic ice sheet could be threatened by 4-10C local warming, and its potential contribution to millennial sea level rise exceeds current maximum estimates of circa 1 m. The fate of the ocean thermohaline circulation may depend on the rate as well as the magnitude of forcing

Climate Change to the End of the Millennium. An Editorial Review Essay

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lenton, T.M. [Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, UK and School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia, Norwich, NR4 7TJ (United Kingdom)

2006-05-15

Anthropogenic climate change will continue long after anthropogenic CO2 emissions cease. Atmospheric CO2, global warming and ocean circulation will approach equilibrium on the millennial timescale, whereas thermal expansion of the ocean, ice sheet melt and their contributions to sea level rise are unlikely to be complete. Atmospheric CO2 in year 3000 depends non-linearly on the total amount of CO2 emitted and is very likely to exceed the present level of circa 380 ppmv. CO2 is doubled for circa 2500 GtC emitted, quadrupled if all circa 5000 GtC of conventional fossil fuel resources are emitted, and increases by a factor of circa 32 if a further 20,000 GtC of exotic fossil fuel resources are emitted. Global warming in year 3000 will also depend on climate sensitivity to doubling CO2, which is most probably circa 3C but highly uncertain. Thermal expansion will contribute 0.5-2 m to millennial sea level rise for each doubling of CO2. The Greenland ice sheet could melt completely within the millennium under > 8 x CO2, adding a further circa 7 m to sea level. The rate of melt depends on the magnitude of forcing above a regional warming threshold of 1-3C. The West Antarctic ice sheet could be threatened by 4-10C local warming, and its potential contribution to millennial sea level rise exceeds current maximum estimates of circa 1 m. The fate of the ocean thermohaline circulation may depend on the rate as well as the magnitude of forcing.

Differentiation regional climate impact indicators at 1.5°C and 2°C warming above pre-industrial levels

Science.gov (United States)

Schleussner, C. F.

2016-12-01

Robust appraisals of climate impacts at different levels of global-mean temperature increase are vital to guide assessments of dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system. By establishing 1.5°C as the long term temperature limit for global average temperature increase and inviting a special report of the IPCC on the impacts of 1.5°C, the Paris Agreement has put such assessments high on the post-Paris science agenda. Here I will present recent findings of climate impacts at 1.5°C, including extreme weather events, water availability, agricultural yields, sea-level rise and risk of coral reef loss. In particular, I will present findings from a recent study that attempts to differentiate between such impacts at warming levels of 1.5°¸C and 2°C above pre-industrial (Schleussner et al., 2016). By analyzing changes in indicators for 26 world regions as applicable, the study found regional dependent differences between a 1.5°C and 2°C warming. Regional hot-spots of change emerge with tropical regions bearing the brunt of the impacts of an additional 0.5°C warming. These findings highlight the importance of regional differentiation to assess both future climate risks and different vulnerabilities to incremental increases in global-mean temperature. Building on that analysis, I will discuss limitations of existing approaches to differentiate between warming levels and outline opportunities for future work on refining our understanding of the difference between impacts at 1.5°C and 2°C warming. ReferencesSchleussner, C.-F. et al. Differential climate impacts for policy relevant limits to global warming: the case of 1.5°C and 2°C. Earth Syst. Dyn. 7, 327-351 (2016).

When will we be committed to crossing 1.5 and 2 °C temperature thresholds?

Science.gov (United States)

Armour, K.; Proistosescu, C.; Roe, G.; Huybers, P. J.

2017-12-01

The zero-emissions climate commitment is a key metric for science and policy. It is the future warming we face given only to-date emissions, independent of future human influence on climate. Following a cessation of emissions, future global temperature change depends on (i) the atmospheric lifetimes of aerosols and greenhouse gases (GHGs), and (ii) the physical climate response to radiative forcing (Armour and Roe 2011). The cooling effect of aerosols diminishes within weeks; GHG concentrations get drawn down on timescales ranging from months to millennia; and ocean heat uptake diminishes as climate equilibrates with the residual CO2 forcing. Whether global temperature increases, stays stable, or declines following emission cessation depends on these competing factors. There is substantial uncertainty in the zero-emissions commitment due to a combination of (i) correlated uncertainties in aerosol radiative forcing and climate sensitivity, (ii) uncertainty in the atmospheric lifetime of CO2, and (iii) uncertainty in how climate sensitivity will evolve in the future. Here we quantify climate commitment in a Bayesian framework of an idealized model constrained by observations of global warming and energy imbalance, combined with estimates of global radiative forcing. At present, our committed warming is 1.2°C (median), with a 25% chance that it already exceeds 1.5°C and a 5% chance that it exceeds 2°C; the range comes primarily from uncertainty in the degree to which aerosols currently mask GHG forcing. We further quantify how climate commitment, and its uncertainty, changes with emissions scenario and over time. Under high emissions (RCP8.5), we will reach a >50% risk of a 2°C zero-emission climate commitment by the year 2035, about two decades before that temperature would be reached if emissions continued unabated. Committed warming is substantially reduced for lower-emissions scenarios, depending on the mix of aerosol and GHG mitigation. For the next few

Record-breaking climate extremes in Africa under stabilized 1.5 °C and 2 °C global warming scenarios

Science.gov (United States)

Nangombe, Shingirai; Zhou, Tianjun; Zhang, Wenxia; Wu, Bo; Hu, Shuai; Zou, Liwei; Li, Donghuan

2018-05-01

Anthropogenic forcing is anticipated to increase the magnitude and frequency of extreme events1, the impacts of which will be particularly hard-felt in already vulnerable locations such as Africa2. However, projected changes in African climate extremes remain little explored, particularly in the context of the Paris Agreement targets3,4. Here, using Community Earth System Model low warming simulations5, we examine how heat and hydrological extremes may change in Africa under stabilized 1.5 °C and 2 °C scenarios, focusing on the projected changing likelihood of events that have comparable magnitudes to observed record-breaking seasons. In the Community Earth System Model, limiting end-of-century warming to 1.5 °C is suggested to robustly reduce the frequency of heat extremes compared to 2 °C. In particular, the probability of events similar to the December-February 1991/1992 southern African and 2009/2010 North African heat waves is estimated to be reduced by 25 ± 5% and 20 ± 4%, respectively, if warming is limited to 1.5 °C instead of 2 °C. For hydrometeorological extremes (that is, drought and heavy precipitation), by contrast, signal differences are indistinguishable from the variation between ensemble members. Thus, according to this model, continued efforts to limit warming to 1.5 °C offer considerable benefits in terms of minimizing heat extremes and their associated socio-economic impacts across Africa.

Cloud forming properties of ambient aerosol in the Netherlands and resultant shortwave radiative forcing of climate

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Khlystov, A.

1998-01-01

This thesis discusses properties of ambient aerosols in the Netherlands which are controlling the magnitude of the local aerosol radiative forcing. Anthropogenic aerosols influence climate by changing the radiative transfer through the atmosphere via two effects, one is direct and a second

Climate variability and physical forcing of the food webs and the carbon budget on panarctic shelves

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Carmack, Eddy; Barber, David; Christensen, Jens

2006-01-01

, which differ for different properties and shelf types, as do the likely responses; that is, the distributions of nutrients, organic carbon, freshwater, sediments, and trace minerals will all respond differently to climate forcing. A fundamental conclusion is that the changes associated with light...

Accurate determination of 13C/12C in CO2 of past atmospheres from 13C/12C in tree rings by removal of climatic interferences. Final technical progress report

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Long, A.; Leavitt, S.W.

1982-07-01

Analysis of delta 13 C in tree rings offers the potential for reconstructing changes in delta 13 C of atmospheric CO 2 , which combined with 14 C trends will be important in evaluating the past and present role of the biosphere as a net carbon dioxide source or sink. One problem with such tree-ring delta 13 C records is that in addition to changes in atmospheric delta 13 C, climatic factors may influence the isotopic composition of the rings. This study examines delta 13 C in cellulose of five-year intervals of juniper tree rings. The sampling sites were near weather stations for which climate data are readily available. delta 13 C vs winter climate relationships were derived from those sites not under the influence of local pollution sources. These relationships facilitated development of a delta 13 C record from which climate effects have been factored out. The resulting 1930-1979 delta 13 C reconstruction shows a pronounced delta 13 C decrease from 1930 to 1960 and then a post-1960 flattening of the curve. We interpret this trend as representing an increasing role of biospheric CO 2 sinks relative to sources, although other interpretations may be possible within the limits of precision of data analysis. Research with this technique is continuing with pinyon pine and dendroclimatological reconstructions to verify these results and to develop a climate-free delta 13 C chronology back to pre-industrial time

The non-linear, interactive effects of population density and climate drive the geographical patterns of waterfowl survival

Science.gov (United States)

Zhao, Qing; Boomer, G. Scott; Kendall, William L.

2018-01-01

On-going climate change has major impacts on ecological processes and patterns. Understanding the impacts of climate on the geographical patterns of survival can provide insights to how population dynamics respond to climate change and provide important information for the development of appropriate conservation strategies at regional scales. It is challenging to understand the impacts of climate on survival, however, due to the fact that the non-linear relationship between survival and climate can be modified by density-dependent processes. In this study we extended the Brownie model to partition hunting and non-hunting mortalities and linked non-hunting survival to covariates. We applied this model to four decades (1972–2014) of waterfowl band-recovery, breeding population survey, and precipitation and temperature data covering multiple ecological regions to examine the non-linear, interactive effects of population density and climate on waterfowl non-hunting survival at a regional scale. Our results showed that the non-linear effect of temperature on waterfowl non-hunting survival was modified by breeding population density. The concave relationship between non-hunting survival and temperature suggested that the effects of warming on waterfowl survival might be multifaceted. Furthermore, the relationship between non-hunting survival and temperature was stronger when population density was higher, suggesting that high-density populations may be less buffered against warming than low-density populations. Our study revealed distinct relationships between waterfowl non-hunting survival and climate across and within ecological regions, highlighting the importance of considering different conservation strategies according to region-specific population and climate conditions. Our findings and associated novel modelling approach have wide implications in conservation practice.

Spin force and torque in non-relativistic Dirac oscillator on a sphere

Science.gov (United States)

Shikakhwa, M. S.

2018-03-01

The spin force operator on a non-relativistic Dirac oscillator (in the non-relativistic limit the Dirac oscillator is a spin one-half 3D harmonic oscillator with strong spin-orbit interaction) is derived using the Heisenberg equations of motion and is seen to be formally similar to the force by the electromagnetic field on a moving charged particle. When confined to a sphere of radius R, it is shown that the Hamiltonian of this non-relativistic oscillator can be expressed as a mere kinetic energy operator with an anomalous part. As a result, the power by the spin force and torque operators in this case are seen to vanish. The spin force operator on the sphere is calculated explicitly and its torque is shown to be equal to the rate of change of the kinetic orbital angular momentum operator, again with an anomalous part. This, along with the conservation of the total angular momentum, suggests that the spin force exerts a spin-dependent torque on the kinetic orbital angular momentum operator in order to conserve total angular momentum. The presence of an anomalous spin part in the kinetic orbital angular momentum operator gives rise to an oscillatory behavior similar to the Zitterbewegung. It is suggested that the underlying physics that gives rise to the spin force and the Zitterbewegung is one and the same in NRDO and in systems that manifest spin Hall effect.

Forced Climate Changes in West Antarctica and the Indo-Pacific by Northern Hemisphere Ice Sheet Topography

Science.gov (United States)

Jones, T. R.; Roberts, W. H. G.; Steig, E. J.; Cuffey, K. M.; Markle, B. R.; White, J. W. C.

2017-12-01

The behavior of the Indo-Pacific climate system across the last deglaciation is widely debated. Resolving these debates requires long term and continuous climate proxy records. Here, we use an ultra-high resolution and continuous water isotope record from an ice core in the Pacific sector of West Antarctica. In conjunction with the HadCM3 coupled ocean-atmosphere GCM, we demonstrate that the climate of both West Antarctica and the Indo-Pacific were substantially altered during the last deglaciation by the same forcing mechanism. Critically, these changes are not dependent on ENSO strength, but rather the location of deep tropical convection, which shifts at 16 ka in response to climate perturbations induced by the Laurentide Ice Sheet. The changed rainfall patterns in the tropics explain the deglacial shift from expanded-grasslands to rainforest-dominated ecosystems in Indonesia. High-frequency climate variability in the Southern Hemisphere is also changed, through a tropical Pacific teleconnection link dependent on the propogration of Rossby Waves.

Seasonal changes in the human alteration of fire regimes beyond the climate forcing

Science.gov (United States)

Fréjaville, Thibaut; Curt, Thomas

2017-03-01

Human activities have altered fire regimes for millennia by suppressing or enhancing natural fire activity. However, whether these anthropogenic pressures on fire activity have exceeded and will surpass climate forcing still remains uncertain. We tested if, how and the extent to which seasonal fire activity in southern France has recently (1976-2009) deviated from climate-expected trends. The latter were simulated using an ensemble of detrended fire-climate models. We found both seasonal and regional contrasts in climatic effects through a mixture of drought-driven and fuel-limited fire regimes. Dry contemporary conditions chiefly drove fire frequency and burned area, although higher fire activity was related to wetter conditions in the last three years. Surprisingly, the relative importance of preceding wet conditions was higher in winter than in summer, illustrating the strong potential dependency of regional fire-climate relationships on the human use and control of fires. In the Mediterranean mountains, warm winters and springs favour extensive fires in the following dry summer. These results highlight that increasing dryness with climate change could have antagonistic effects on fire regime by leading to larger fires in summer (moisture-limited), but lower fire activity in winter (fuel-limited fire regime). Furthermore, fire trends have significantly diverged from climatic expectations, with a strong negative alteration in fire activity in the Mediterranean lowlands and the summer burned area in the mountains. In contrast, alteration of winter fire frequency in the Mediterranean and Temperate mountains has shifted from positive to negative (or null) trends during the mid-1990s, a period when fire suppression policy underwent major revisions. Our findings demonstrate that changes in land-use and fire suppression policy have probably exceeded the strength of climate change effects on changing fire regime in southern Europe, making regional predictions of future

Climate change reduces water availability for agriculture by decreasing non-evaporative irrigation losses

Science.gov (United States)

Malek, Keyvan; Adam, Jennifer C.; Stöckle, Claudio O.; Peters, R. Troy

2018-06-01

Irrigation efficiency plays an important role in agricultural productivity; it affects farm-scale water demand, and the partitioning of irrigation losses into evaporative and non-evaporative components. This partitioning determines return flow generation and thus affects water availability. Over the last two decades, hydrologic and agricultural research communities have significantly improved our understanding of the impacts of climate change on water availability and food productivity. However, the impacts of climate change on the efficiency of irrigation systems, particularly on the partitioning between evaporative and non-evaporative losses, have received little attention. In this study, we incorporated a process-based irrigation module into a coupled hydrologic/agricultural modeling framework (VIC-CropSyst). To understand how climate change may impact irrigation losses, we applied VIC-CropSyst over the Yakima River basin, an important agricultural region in Washington State, U.S. We compared the historical period of 1980-2010 to an ensemble of ten projections of climate for two future periods: 2030-2060 and 2060-2090. Results averaged over the watershed showed that a 9% increase in evaporative losses will be compensated by a reduction of non-evaporative losses. Therefore, overall changes in future efficiency are negligible (-0.4%) while the Evaporative Loss Ratio (ELR) (defined as the ratio of evaporative to non-evaporative irrigation losses) is enhanced by 10%. This higher ELR is associated with a reduction in return flows, thus negatively impacting downstream water availability. Results also indicate that the impact of climate change on irrigation losses depend on irrigation type and climate scenarios.

Global Climate Forcing from Albedo Change Caused by Large-scale Deforestation and Reforestation: Quantification and Attribution of Geographic Variation

Science.gov (United States)

Jiao, Tong; Williams, Christopher A.; Ghimire, Bardan; Masek, Jeffrey; Gao, Feng; Schaaf, Crystal

2017-01-01

Large-scale deforestation and reforestation have contributed substantially to historical and contemporary global climate change in part through albedo-induced radiative forcing, with meaningful implications for forest management aiming to mitigate climate change. Associated warming or cooling varies widely across the globe due to a range of factors including forest type, snow cover, and insolation, but resulting geographic variation remain spoorly described and has been largely based on model assessments. This study provides an observation-based approach to quantify local and global radiative forcings from large-scale deforestation and reforestation and further examines mechanisms that result in the spatial heterogeneity of radiative forcing. We incorporate a new spatially and temporally explicit land cover-specific albedo product derived from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer with a historical land use data set (Land Use Harmonization product). Spatial variation in radiative forcing was attributed to four mechanisms, including the change in snow-covered albedo, change in snow-free albedo, snow cover fraction, and incoming solar radiation. We find an albedo-only radiative forcing (RF) of -0.819 W m(exp -2) if year 2000 forests were completely deforested and converted to croplands. Albedo RF from global reforestation of present-day croplands to recover year 1700 forests is estimated to be 0.161 W m)exp -2). Snow-cover fraction is identified as the primary factor in determining the spatial variation of radiative forcing in winter, while the magnitude of the change in snow-free albedo is the primary factor determining variations in summertime RF. Findings reinforce the notion that, for conifers at the snowier high latitudes, albedo RF diminishes the warming from forest loss and the cooling from forest gain more so than for other forest types, latitudes, and climate settings.

Indirect radiative forcing by ion-mediated nucleation of aerosol

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

F. Yu

2012-12-01

Full Text Available A clear understanding of particle formation mechanisms is critical for assessing aerosol indirect radiative forcing and associated climate feedback processes. Recent studies reveal the importance of ion-mediated nucleation (IMN in generating new particles and cloud condensation nuclei (CCN in the atmosphere. Here we implement the IMN scheme into the Community Atmosphere Model version 5 (CAM5. Our simulations show that, compared to globally averaged results based on H₂SO₄-H₂O binary homogeneous nucleation (BHN, the presence of ionization (i.e., IMN halves H₂SO₄ column burden, but increases the column integrated nucleation rate by around one order of magnitude, total particle number burden by a factor of ~3, CCN burden by ~10% (at 0.2% supersaturation to 65% (at 1.0% supersaturation, and cloud droplet number burden by ~18%. Compared to BHN, IMN increases cloud liquid water path by 7.5%, decreases precipitation by 1.1%, and increases total cloud cover by 1.9%. This leads to an increase of total shortwave cloud radiative forcing (SWCF by 3.67 W m⁻² (more negative and longwave cloud forcing by 1.78 W m⁻² (more positive, with large spatial variations. The effect of ionization on SWCF derived from this study (3.67 W m⁻² is a factor of ~3 higher that of a previous study (1.15 W m⁻² based on a different ion nucleation scheme and climate model. Based on the present CAM5 simulation, the 5-yr mean impacts of solar cycle induced changes in ionization rates on CCN and cloud forcing are small (~−0.02 W m⁻² but have larger inter-annual (from −0.18 to 0.17 W m⁻² and spatial variations.

Climatic driving forces in inter-annual variation of global FPAR

Science.gov (United States)

Peng, Dailiang; Liu, Liangyun; Yang, Xiaohua; Zhou, Bin

2012-09-01

Fraction of Absorbed Photosynthetically Active Radiation (FPAR) characterizes vegetation canopy functioning and its energy absorption capacity. In this paper, we focus on climatic driving forces in inter-annual variation of global FPAR from 1982 to 2006 by Global Historical Climatology Network (GHCN-Monthly) data. Using FPAR-Simple Ratio Vegetation Index (SR) relationship, Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) Global Inventory Modeling and Mapping Studies (GIMMS) Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) was used to estimate FPAR at the global scale. The correlation between inter-annual variation of FPAR and temperature, precipitation derived from GHCN-Monthly was examined, during the periods of March-May (MAM), June-August (JJA), September-November (SON), and December-February (DJF) over from 1982 to 2006. The analysis of climatic influence on global FPAR revealed the significant correlation with temperature and precipitation in some meteorological stations area, and a more significant correlation with precipitation was found than which with temperature. Some stations in the regions between 30° N and 60° N and around 30° S in South America, where the annual FPAR variation showed a significant positive correlation with temperature (P forest of Africa and Amazon during the dry season of JJA and SON.

Lorentz force actuation of a heated atomic force microscope cantilever.

Science.gov (United States)

Lee, Byeonghee; Prater, Craig B; King, William P

2012-02-10

We report Lorentz force-induced actuation of a silicon microcantilever having an integrated resistive heater. Oscillating current through the cantilever interacts with the magnetic field around a NdFeB permanent magnet and induces a Lorentz force that deflects the cantilever. The same current induces cantilever heating. With AC currents as low as 0.2 mA, the cantilever can be oscillated as much as 80 nm at resonance with a DC temperature rise of less than 5 °C. By comparison, the AC temperature variation leads to a thermomechanical oscillation that is about 1000 times smaller than the Lorentz deflection at the cantilever resonance. The cantilever position in the nonuniform magnetic field affects the Lorentz force-induced deflection, with the magnetic field parallel to the cantilever having the largest effect on cantilever actuation. We demonstrate how the cantilever actuation can be used for imaging, and for measuring the local material softening temperature by sensing the contact resonance shift.

Non-equilibrium umbrella sampling applied to force spectroscopy of soft matter.

Science.gov (United States)

Gao, Y X; Wang, G M; Williams, D R M; Williams, Stephen R; Evans, Denis J; Sevick, E M

2012-02-07

Physical systems often respond on a timescale which is longer than that of the measurement. This is particularly true in soft matter where direct experimental measurement, for example in force spectroscopy, drives the soft system out of equilibrium and provides a non-equilibrium measure. Here we demonstrate experimentally for the first time that equilibrium physical quantities (such as the mean square displacement) can be obtained from non-equilibrium measurements via umbrella sampling. Our model experimental system is a bead fluctuating in a time-varying optical trap. We also show this for simulated force spectroscopy on a complex soft molecule--a piston-rotaxane.

Climate forcing due to optimization of maximal leaf conductance in subtropical vegetation under rising CO2

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Boer, H.J. de; Lammertsma, E.I.; Wagner-Cremer, F.; Dilcher, D.L.; Wassen, M.J.; Dekker, S.C.

2011-01-01

Plant physiological adaptation to the global rise in atmospheric CO 2 concentration (CO2) is identified as a crucial climatic forcing. To optimize functioning under rising CO2, plants reduce the diffusive stomatal conductance of their leaves (gs) dynamically by closing stomata and structurally by

Effects of snow grain non-sphericity on climate simulations: Sensitivity tests with the NorESM model

Science.gov (United States)

Räisänen, Petri; Makkonen, Risto; Kirkevåg, Alf

2017-04-01

Snow grains are non-spherical and generally irregular in shape. Still, in radiative transfer calculations, they are often treated as spheres. This also applies to the computation of snow albedo in the Snow, Ice, and Aerosol Radiation (SNICAR) model and in the Los Alamos sea ice model, version 4 (CICE4), both of which are employed in the Community Earth System Model and in the Norwegian Earth System Model (NorESM). In this work, we evaluate the effect of snow grain shape on climate simulated by NorESM in a slab ocean configuration of the model. An experiment with spherical snow grains (SPH) is compared with another (NONSPH) in which the snow shortwave single-scattering properties are based on a combination of non-spherical snow grain shapes optimized using measurements of angular scattering by blowing snow. The key difference between these treatments is that the asymmetry parameter is smaller in the non-spherical case (≈ 0.78 in the visible region) than in the spherical case (≈ 0.89). Therefore, for a given snow grain size, the use of non-spherical snow grains yields a higher snow broadband albedo, typically by ≈0.03. Consequently, considering the spherical case as the baseline, the use of non-spherical snow grains results in a negative radiative forcing (RF), with a global-mean top-of-the-model value of ≈ -0.22 W m-2. Although this global-mean RF is modest, it has a rather substantial impact on the climate simulated by NoRESM. In particular, the global annual-mean 2-m air temperature in NONSPH is 1.17 K lower than in SPH, with substantially larger differences at high latitudes. The climatic response is amplified by strong snow and sea ice feedbacks. It is further found that the difference between NONSPH and SPH could be largely "tuned away" by adjusting the snow grain size in the NONSPH experiment by ≈ 70%. The impact of snow grain shape on the radiative effect (RE) of absorbing aerosols in snow (black carbon and mineral dust) is also discussed. For an

Evidence for a narrow NN-bar state at 2.02 GEV/C2 in 6 and 9 GEV/C antiproton interactions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Azooz, F.; Butterworth, I.; Dornan, P.J.

1982-11-01

Evidence for the existence of a charged narrow state of mass M approximately 2.02 GeV/c 2 and width GAMMA approximately 2 , decaying into NN-bar is reported. The state was observed in the reaction p-barp → psub(fast)n-barπ + π - π - at 6 GeV/c and in p-barp → π + sub(fast)p-barnπ + π - at 9 GeV/c in a triggered bubble chamber experiment at the SLAC Hybrid Facility. (author)

The relationship between peak warming and cumulative CO2 emissions, and its use to quantify vulnerabilities in the carbon-climate-human system

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Raupach, Michael; Canadell, Josep G.; Ciais, Philippe; Friedlingstein, Pierre; Rayner, Peter J.; Trudinger, Catherine M.

2011-01-01

Interactions between the carbon cycle, climate and human societies are subject to several major vulnerabilities, broadly defined as factors contributing to the risk of harm from human-induced climate change. We assess five vulnerabilities: (1) effects of increasing CO 2 on the partition of anthropogenic carbon between atmospheric, land and ocean reservoirs; (2) effects of climate change (quantified by temperature) on CO 2 fluxes; (3) uncertainty in climate sensitivity; (4) non-CO 2 radiative forcing and (5) anthropogenic CO 2 emissions. Our analysis uses a physically based expression for Tp(Qp), the peak warming Tp associated with a cumulative anthropogenic CO 2 emission Qp to the time of peak warming. The approximations in this expression are evaluated using a non-linear box model of the carbon-climate system, forced with capped emissions trajectories described by an analytic form satisfying integral and smoothness constraints. The first four vulnerabilities appear as parameters that influence Tp(Qp), whereas the last appears through the independent variable. In terms of likely implications for Tp(Qp), the decreasing order of the first four vulnerabilities is: uncertainties in climate sensitivity, effects of non-CO 2 radiative forcing, effects of climate change on CO 2 fluxes and effects of increasing CO 2 on the partition of anthropogenic carbon. (authors)

Emerging patterns of simulated regional climatic changes for the 21st century due to anthropogenic forcings

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Giorgi, Filippo; Whetton, Peter H.; Jones, Richard G.

2001-01-01

We analyse temperature and precipitation changes for the late decades of the 21st century (with respect to present day conditions) over 23 land regions of the world from 18 recent transient, climate change experiments with coupled atmosphere-ocean General Circulation Models (AOGCMs). The analysis...... involves two different forcing scenarios and nine models, and it focuses on model agreement in the simulated regional changes for the summer and winter seasons. While to date very few conclusions have been presented on regional climatic changes, mostly limited to some broad latitudinal bands, our analysis...

The effect of climate variability on urinary stone attacks: increased incidence associated with temperature over 18 °C: a population-based study.

Science.gov (United States)

Park, Hyoung Keun; Bae, Sang Rak; Kim, Satbyul E; Choi, Woo Suk; Paick, Sung Hyun; Ho, Kim; Kim, Hyeong Gon; Lho, Yong Soo

2015-02-01

The aim of this study was to evaluate the effect of seasonal variation and climate parameters on urinary tract stone attack and investigate whether stone attack is increased sharply at a specific point. Nationwide data of total urinary tract stone attack numbers per month between January 2006 and December 2010 were obtained from the Korean Health Insurance Review and Assessment Service. The effects of climatic factors on monthly urinary stone attack were assessed using auto-regressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) regression method. A total of 1,702,913 stone attack cases were identified. Mean monthly and monthly average daily urinary stone attack cases were 28,382 ± 2,760 and 933 ± 85, respectively. The stone attack showed seasonal trends of sharp incline in June, a peak plateau from July to September, and a sharp decline after September. The correlation analysis showed that ambient temperature (r = 0.557, p r = 0.513, p stone attack cases. However, after adjustment for trends and seasonality, ambient temperature was the only climate factor associated with the stone attack cases in ARIMA regression test (p = 0.04). Threshold temperature was estimated as 18.4 °C. Risk of urinary stone attack significantly increases 1.71% (1.02-2.41 %, 95% confidence intervals) with a 1 °C increase of ambient temperature above the threshold point. In conclusion, monthly urinary stone attack cases were changed according to seasonal variation. Among the climates variables, only temperature had consistent association with stone attack and when the temperature is over 18.4 °C, urinary stone attack would be increased sharply.

Measurement of Forces and Torques during Non Homogeneous Material Drilling Operation

OpenAIRE

Mohd Hazny Aziz; Muhammad Azmi Ayub

2011-01-01

The purpose of this study is to measure the forces and toques that produce in the drilling process of non-homogenous material (bone). An automated five degree of freedom CRS CataLyst-5 robot used during the drilling process together with the six degree freedom of force toque sensor. A force torque controller that built in Matlab Simulink environment is used to control the drilling process of the robot. Different feed rate will be used during the experimental of the drilling process. The sen...

Strong modification of stratospheric ozone forcing by cloud and sea-ice adjustments

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Y. Xia

2016-06-01

Full Text Available We investigate the climatic impact of stratospheric ozone recovery (SOR, with a focus on the surface temperature change in atmosphere–slab ocean coupled climate simulations. We find that although SOR would cause significant surface warming (global mean: 0.2 K in a climate free of clouds and sea ice, it causes surface cooling (−0.06 K in the real climate. The results here are especially interesting in that the stratosphere-adjusted radiative forcing is positive in both cases. Radiation diagnosis shows that the surface cooling is mainly due to a strong radiative effect resulting from significant reduction of global high clouds and, to a lesser extent, from an increase in high-latitude sea ice. Our simulation experiments suggest that clouds and sea ice are sensitive to stratospheric ozone perturbation, which constitutes a significant radiative adjustment that influences the sign and magnitude of the global surface temperature change.

Air pollution radiative forcing from specific emissions sectors at 2030

Science.gov (United States)

Unger, Nadine; Shindell, Drew T.; Koch, Dorothy M.; Streets, David G.

2008-01-01

Reduction of short-lived air pollutants can contribute to mitigate global warming in the near-term with ancillary benefits to human health. However, the radiative forcings of short-lived air pollutants depend on the location and source type of the precursor emissions. We apply the Goddard Institute for Space Studies atmospheric composition-climate model to quantify near-future (2030 A1B) global annual mean radiative forcing by ozone (O3) and sulfate from six emissions sectors in seven geographic regions. At 2030 the net forcings from O3, sulfate, black and organic carbon, and indirect CH4 effects for each emission sector are (in mWm-2) biomass burning, +95; domestic, +68; transportation, +67; industry, -131; and power, -224. Biomass burning emissions in East Asia and central and southern Africa, domestic biofuel emissions in East Asia, south Asia, and central and southern Africa, and transportation emissions in Europe and North America have large net positive forcings and are therefore attractive targets to counter global warming. Power and industry emissions from East Asia, south Asia, and north Africa and the Middle East have large net negative forcings. Therefore air quality control measures that affect these regional sectors require offsetting climate measures to avoid a warming impact. Linear relationships exist between O3 forcing and biomass burning and domestic biofuel CO precursor emissions independent of region with sensitivity of +0.2 mWm-2/TgCO. Similarly, linear relationships exist between sulfate forcing and SO2 precursor emissions that depend upon region but are independent of sector with sensitivities ranging from -3 to -12 mWm-2/TgS.

Casimir force, excess free energy and C-function in O(n) systems with long-range interactions in the n → ∞ limit

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chamati, H.; Dantchev, D.M.

2004-06-01

We present exact results on the behavior of the thermodynamic Casimir force and the excess free energy and the C-function in the framework of the d-dimensional spherical model with a power law long-range interaction decaying at large distances r as r -d- σ, where σ c , as well as for T > Tc and T c . The universal finite-size scaling function governing the behavior of the force in the critical region is derived and its asymptotics are investigated. While in the critical and under -d -d-, critical region the force is of the order of L -d , for T > T c it decays as L -dσ , where L is the thickness of the film. We consider both the case of a finite system that has no phase transition of its own, when d - σ when one observes a dimensional crossover from d to a d - 1 dimensional critical behavior. The behavior of the force along the phase coexistence line for a magnetic field H = 0 and T c . is also derived. We have proven analytically that the excess free energy is always negative ad monotonically increasing function of T and H, while the C-function is always non-negative and monotonically decreasing function of T and H. For the Casimir force we have demonstrated that for any σ > it is everywhere negative, i.e. an attraction between the surfaces bounding the system is to be observed. At T = T c the force is an increasing function of T for σ > 1 and a decreasing one for σ c is always achieved at some H ≠ 0 . (author)

Dispersion forces in micromechanics: Casimir and Casimir-Polder forces affected by geometry and non-zero temperature

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Ellingsen, Simen Andreas Aadnoey

2011-01-15

The present thesis focuses on several topics within three separate but related branches of the overall field of dispersion forces. The three branches are: temperature corrections to the Casimir force between real materials (Part 1), explicit calculation of Casimir energy in wedge geometries (Part 2), and Casimir-Polder forces on particles out of thermal equilibrium (Part 3). Part 1 deals primarily with analysis of a previously purported thermodynamic inconsistency in the Casimir-Lifshitz free energy of the interaction of two plane mirrors - violation of the third law of thermodynamics - when the latter's dielectric response is described with dissipative models. It is shown analytically and numerically that the Casimir entropy of the interaction between two metallic mirrors described by the Drude model does tend to zero at zero temperature, provided electronic relaxation does not vanish. The leading order terms at low temperature are found. A similar calculation is carried out for the interaction of semiconductors with small but non-zero DC conductivity. In a generalisation, it is shown that a violation of the third law can only occur for permittivities whose low-frequency behaviour is temperature dependent near zero temperature. A calculation using path integral methods shows that the low temperature behaviour of the interaction of fluctuating Foucault currents in two mirrors of Drude metal is identical to that of the full Casimir-Lifshitz free energy, reasserting a previous finding by Intravaia and Henkel that such fluctuating bulk currents are the physical reason for the anomalous entropy behaviour. In a related effort, an analysis of the frequency dependence of the Casimir force by Ford is generalised to imperfectly reflecting mirrors. A paradox is pointed out, in that the effects of a perturbation of the reflecting properties of the mirrors in a finite frequency window can be calculated in two ways giving different results. It is concluded that optimistic

Advancements in the use of speleothems as climate archives

Science.gov (United States)

Wong, Corinne I.; Breecker, Daniel O.

2015-11-01

Speleothems have become a cornerstone of the approach to better understanding Earth's climatic teleconnections due to their precise absolute chronologies, their continuous or semicontinuous deposition and their global terrestrial distribution. We review the last decade of speleothem-related research, building off a similar review by McDermott (2004), in three themes - i) investigation of global teleconnections using speleothem-based climate reconstructions, ii) refinement of climate interpretations from speleothem proxies through cave monitoring, and iii) novel, technical methods of speleothem-based climate reconstructions. Speleothem records have enabled critical insight into the response of global hydroclimate to large climate changes. This includes the relevant forcings and sequence of climatic responses involved in glacial terminations and recognition of a global monsoon response to climate changes on orbital and millennial time scales. We review advancements in understanding of the processes that control speleothem δ13C values and introduce the idea of a direct atmospheric pCO2 influence. We discuss progress in understanding kinetic isotope fractionation, which, with further advances, may help quantify paleoclimate changes despite non-equilibrium formation of speleothems. This feeds into the potential of proxy system modeling to consider climatic, hydrological and biogeochemical processes with the objective of quantitatively interpreting speleothem proxies. Finally, we provide an overview of emerging speleothem proxies and novel approaches using existing proxies. Most recently, technical advancements made in the measurement of fluid inclusions are now yielding reliable determinations of paleotemperatures.

Evaluating adaptation options for urban flooding based on new high-end emission scenario regional climate model simulations

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Arnbjerg-Nielsen, Karsten; Leonardsen, L.; Madsen, Henrik

2015-01-01

Climate change adaptation studies on urban flooding are often based on a model chain approach from climate forcing scenarios to analysis of adaptation measures. Previous analyses of climate change impacts in Copenhagen, Denmark, were supplemented by 2 high-end scenario simulations. These include...... a regional climate model projection forced to a global temperature increase of 6 degrees C in 2100 as well as a projection based on a high radiative forcing scenario (RCP8.5). With these scenarios, projected impacts of extreme precipitation increase significantly. For extreme sea surges, the impacts do...... by almost 4 and 8 times the current EAD for the RCP8.5 and 6 degrees C scenario, respectively. For both hazards, business-as-usual is not a possible scenario, since even in the absence of policy-driven changes, significant autonomous adaptation is likely to occur. Copenhagen has developed an adaptation plan...

Robust non-gradient C subroutines for non-linear optimization

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Brock, Pernille; Madsen, Kaj; Nielsen, Hans Bruun

2004-01-01

This report presents a package of robust and easy-to-use C subroutines for solving unconstrained and constrained non-linear optimization problems, where gradient information is not required. The intention is that the routines should use the currently best algorithms available. All routines have...... subroutines are obtained by changing 0 to 1. The present report is a new and updated version of a previous report NI-91-04 with the title Non-gradient c Subroutines for Non- Linear Optimization, [16]. Both the previous and the present report describe a collection of subroutines, which have been translated...... from Fortran to C. The reason for writing the present report is that some of the C subroutines have been replaced by more e ective and robust versions translated from the original Fortran subroutines to C by the Bandler Group, see [1]. Also the test examples have been modified to some extent...

European climate change at global mean temperature increases of 1.5 and 2 °C above pre-industrial conditions as simulated by the EURO-CORDEX regional climate models

Science.gov (United States)

Kjellström, Erik; Nikulin, Grigory; Strandberg, Gustav; Bøssing Christensen, Ole; Jacob, Daniela; Keuler, Klaus; Lenderink, Geert; van Meijgaard, Erik; Schär, Christoph; Somot, Samuel; Sørland, Silje Lund; Teichmann, Claas; Vautard, Robert

2018-05-01

We investigate European regional climate change for time periods when the global mean temperature has increased by 1.5 and 2 °C compared to pre-industrial conditions. Results are based on regional downscaling of transient climate change simulations for the 21st century with global climate models (GCMs) from the fifth-phase Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). We use an ensemble of EURO-CORDEX high-resolution regional climate model (RCM) simulations undertaken at a computational grid of 12.5 km horizontal resolution covering Europe. The ensemble consists of a range of RCMs that have been used for downscaling different GCMs under the RCP8.5 forcing scenario. The results indicate considerable near-surface warming already at the lower 1.5 °C of warming. Regional warming exceeds that of the global mean in most parts of Europe, being the strongest in the northernmost parts of Europe in winter and in the southernmost parts of Europe together with parts of Scandinavia in summer. Changes in precipitation, which are less robust than the ones in temperature, include increases in the north and decreases in the south with a borderline that migrates from a northerly position in summer to a southerly one in winter. Some of these changes are already seen at 1.5 °C of warming but are larger and more robust at 2 °C. Changes in near-surface wind speed are associated with a large spread among individual ensemble members at both warming levels. Relatively large areas over the North Atlantic and some parts of the continent show decreasing wind speed while some ocean areas in the far north show increasing wind speed. The changes in temperature, precipitation and wind speed are shown to be modified by changes in mean sea level pressure, indicating a strong relationship with the large-scale circulation and its internal variability on decade-long timescales. By comparing to a larger ensemble of CMIP5 GCMs we find that the RCMs can alter the results, leading either to

Surface forcing of non-stand-replacing fires in Siberian larch forests

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, Dong; Loboda, Tatiana V.

2018-04-01

Wildfires are the dominant disturbance agent in the Siberian larch forests. Extensive low- to mediate-intensity non-stand-replacing fires are a notable property of fire regime in these forests. Recent large scale studies of these fires have focused mostly on their impacts on carbon budget; however, their potential impacts on energy budget through post-fire albedo changes have not been considered. This study quantifies the post-fire surface forcing for Siberian larch forests that experienced non-stand-replacing fires between 2001 and 2012 using the full record of MODIS MCD43A3 albedo product and a burned area product developed specifically for the Russian forests. Despite a large variability, the mean effect of non-stand-replacing fires imposed through albedo is a negative forcing which lasts for at least 14 years. However, the magnitude of the forcing is much smaller than that imposed by stand-replacing fires, highlighting the importance of differentiating between the two fire types in the studies involving the fire impacts in the region. The results of this study also show that MODIS-based summer differenced normalized burn ratio (dNBR) provides a reliable metric for differentiating non-stand-replacing from stand-replacing fires with an overall accuracy of 88%, which is of considerable importance for future work on modeling post-fire energy budget and carbon budget in the region.

Low-frequency and high-frequency changes in temperature and effective humidity during the Holocene in south-central Sweden: implications for atmospheric and oceanic forcings of climate

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Seppae, H. [University of Helsinki, Department of Geology, 64, Helsinki (Finland); Hammarlund, D. [Lund University, GeoBiosphere Science Centre, Quaternary Sciences, Lund (Sweden); Antonsson, K. [Uppsala University, Department of Earth Sciences, Uppsala (Sweden)

2005-08-01

An integrated use of independent palaeoclimatological proxy techniques that reflect different components of the climate system provides a potential key for functional analysis of past climate changes. Here we report a 10,000 year quantitative record of annual mean temperature (T{sub ann}), based on pollen-climate transfer functions and pollen-stratigraphical data from Lake Flarken, south-central Sweden. The pollen-based temperature reconstruction is compared with a reconstruction of effective humidity, as reflected by a {delta}{sup 18}O record obtained on stratigraphy of lacustrine carbonates from Lake Igelsjoen, c. 10 km from Lake Flarken, which gives evidence of pronounced changes in effective humidity. The relatively low T{sub ann}, and high effective humidity as reflected by a low evaporation/inflow ratio suggest a maritime early Holocene climate (10,000-8,300 cal year BP), seemingly incompatible with the highly seasonal solar insolation configuration. We argue that the maritime climate was due to the stronger-than-present zonal flow, enhanced by the high early Holocene sea-surface temperatures in the North Atlantic. The maritime climate mode was disrupted by the abrupt cold event at 8,200 cal year BP, followed at 8,000 cal year BP by a stable Holocene Thermal Maximum. The latter was characterized by T{sub ann} values about 2.5 C higher than at present and markedly dry conditions, indicative of stable summer-time anti-cyclonic circulation, possibly corresponding with modern blocking anticyclonic conditions. The last 4,300 year period is characterized by an increasingly cold, moist, and unstable climate. The results demonstrate the value of combining two independent palaeoclimatic proxies in enhancing the reliability, generality, and interpretability of the palaeoclimatic results. Further methodological refinements especially in resolving past seasonal climatic contrasts are needed to better understand the role of different forcing factors in driving millennial

Quantitative land-cover change in space and time over the last 11 000 years in the Baltic Sea catchment area and Norway - implications for studies on vegetation-climate interactions and land-use as a forcing of climate change

Science.gov (United States)

Trondman, Anna-Kari; Gaillard, Marie-José; Nielsen, Anne Birgitte; Shinya, Sugita; John, Birks; Anne, Bjune; Mihkel, Kangur; Per, Lagerås; Malgorzata, Latalowa; Matts, Lindbladh; Anneli, Poska; Siim, Veski

2016-04-01

earlier observation that REVEALS estimates of landscape openness are generally much higher than the percentages of pollen types indicative of open land. The two major and fastest increases in landscape openness occurred from i) c. 1.5k (in most of the study region) and ii) c. 0.5k (in the entire study region). The time of highest landscape openness in the entire study region was between 0.5k and 0.2k, with maxima of c. 50 to 90% in the temperate zone, and c. 40% in the hemiboreal zone. Before 1.5k, landscape openness was largest in the temperate and hemiboreal zones of the study region (20-30% around 5k and 35-60% around 3k). Therefore, human-induced deforestation was already significant in Mid Holocene. The effect on climate of the successive land-use changes (deforestations) between 5k and 0.2k are not known and worth studying. References: Kaplan JO et al. (2009) Quaternary Science Reviews 28(27-28): 3016-3034. doi: 10.1016/j.quascirev.2009.09.028; Strandberg G et al. (2014) Clim. Past 10: 661-680. doi:10.5194/cp-10-661-2014; Sugita S (2007) The Holocene, 17(2): 229-241. doi:10.1177/0959683607075837

Changes in climate extremes, fresh water availability and vulnerability to food insecurity projected at 1.5°C and 2°C global warming with a higher-resolution global climate model

Science.gov (United States)

Alfieri, Lorenzo; Bradshaw, Catherine; Caesar, John; Feyen, Luc; Friedlingstein, Pierre; Gohar, Laila; Koutroulis, Aristeidis; Lewis, Kirsty; Morfopoulos, Catherine; Papadimitriou, Lamprini; Richardson, Katy J.; Tsanis, Ioannis; Wyser, Klaus

2018-01-01

We projected changes in weather extremes, hydrological impacts and vulnerability to food insecurity at global warming of 1.5°C and 2°C relative to pre-industrial, using a new global atmospheric general circulation model HadGEM3A-GA3.0 driven by patterns of sea-surface temperatures and sea ice from selected members of the 5th Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) ensemble, forced with the RCP8.5 concentration scenario. To provide more detailed representations of climate processes and impacts, the spatial resolution was N216 (approx. 60 km grid length in mid-latitudes), a higher resolution than the CMIP5 models. We used a set of impacts-relevant indices and a global land surface model to examine the projected changes in weather extremes and their implications for freshwater availability and vulnerability to food insecurity. Uncertainties in regional climate responses are assessed, examining ranges of outcomes in impacts to inform risk assessments. Despite some degree of inconsistency between components of the study due to the need to correct for systematic biases in some aspects, the outcomes from different ensemble members could be compared for several different indicators. The projections for weather extremes indices and biophysical impacts quantities support expectations that the magnitude of change is generally larger for 2°C global warming than 1.5°C. Hot extremes become even hotter, with increases being more intense than seen in CMIP5 projections. Precipitation-related extremes show more geographical variation with some increases and some decreases in both heavy precipitation and drought. There are substantial regional uncertainties in hydrological impacts at local scales due to different climate models producing different outcomes. Nevertheless, hydrological impacts generally point towards wetter conditions on average, with increased mean river flows, longer heavy rainfall events, particularly in South and East Asia with the most extreme

Changes in climate extremes, fresh water availability and vulnerability to food insecurity projected at 1.5°C and 2°C global warming with a higher-resolution global climate model.

Science.gov (United States)

Betts, Richard A; Alfieri, Lorenzo; Bradshaw, Catherine; Caesar, John; Feyen, Luc; Friedlingstein, Pierre; Gohar, Laila; Koutroulis, Aristeidis; Lewis, Kirsty; Morfopoulos, Catherine; Papadimitriou, Lamprini; Richardson, Katy J; Tsanis, Ioannis; Wyser, Klaus

2018-05-13

We projected changes in weather extremes, hydrological impacts and vulnerability to food insecurity at global warming of 1.5°C and 2°C relative to pre-industrial, using a new global atmospheric general circulation model HadGEM3A-GA3.0 driven by patterns of sea-surface temperatures and sea ice from selected members of the 5th Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) ensemble, forced with the RCP8.5 concentration scenario. To provide more detailed representations of climate processes and impacts, the spatial resolution was N216 (approx. 60 km grid length in mid-latitudes), a higher resolution than the CMIP5 models. We used a set of impacts-relevant indices and a global land surface model to examine the projected changes in weather extremes and their implications for freshwater availability and vulnerability to food insecurity. Uncertainties in regional climate responses are assessed, examining ranges of outcomes in impacts to inform risk assessments. Despite some degree of inconsistency between components of the study due to the need to correct for systematic biases in some aspects, the outcomes from different ensemble members could be compared for several different indicators. The projections for weather extremes indices and biophysical impacts quantities support expectations that the magnitude of change is generally larger for 2°C global warming than 1.5°C. Hot extremes become even hotter, with increases being more intense than seen in CMIP5 projections. Precipitation-related extremes show more geographical variation with some increases and some decreases in both heavy precipitation and drought. There are substantial regional uncertainties in hydrological impacts at local scales due to different climate models producing different outcomes. Nevertheless, hydrological impacts generally point towards wetter conditions on average, with increased mean river flows, longer heavy rainfall events, particularly in South and East Asia with the most extreme

Changes in climate extremes, fresh water availability and vulnerability to food insecurity projected at 1.5°C and 2°C global warming with a higher-resolution global climate model

Science.gov (United States)

Betts, Richard A.; Alfieri, Lorenzo; Bradshaw, Catherine; Caesar, John; Feyen, Luc; Friedlingstein, Pierre; Gohar, Laila; Koutroulis, Aristeidis; Lewis, Kirsty; Morfopoulos, Catherine; Papadimitriou, Lamprini; Richardson, Katy J.; Tsanis, Ioannis; Wyser, Klaus

2018-05-01

We projected changes in weather extremes, hydrological impacts and vulnerability to food insecurity at global warming of 1.5°C and 2°C relative to pre-industrial, using a new global atmospheric general circulation model HadGEM3A-GA3.0 driven by patterns of sea-surface temperatures and sea ice from selected members of the 5th Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) ensemble, forced with the RCP8.5 concentration scenario. To provide more detailed representations of climate processes and impacts, the spatial resolution was N216 (approx. 60 km grid length in mid-latitudes), a higher resolution than the CMIP5 models. We used a set of impacts-relevant indices and a global land surface model to examine the projected changes in weather extremes and their implications for freshwater availability and vulnerability to food insecurity. Uncertainties in regional climate responses are assessed, examining ranges of outcomes in impacts to inform risk assessments. Despite some degree of inconsistency between components of the study due to the need to correct for systematic biases in some aspects, the outcomes from different ensemble members could be compared for several different indicators. The projections for weather extremes indices and biophysical impacts quantities support expectations that the magnitude of change is generally larger for 2°C global warming than 1.5°C. Hot extremes become even hotter, with increases being more intense than seen in CMIP5 projections. Precipitation-related extremes show more geographical variation with some increases and some decreases in both heavy precipitation and drought. There are substantial regional uncertainties in hydrological impacts at local scales due to different climate models producing different outcomes. Nevertheless, hydrological impacts generally point towards wetter conditions on average, with increased mean river flows, longer heavy rainfall events, particularly in South and East Asia with the most extreme

The unlubricated reciprocating sliding wear of 316 stainless steel in C02 in the temperature range 20 to 6000C

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Smith, A.F.

1985-11-01

The friction and wear behaviour of 316 stainless steel in C0 2 has been investigated in the load range 8 - 5ON from 20 to 600 0 C. Wear transitions occurred at all temperatures but were load dependent. At and below 300 0 C wear transitions only took place at low leads whereas above 300 0 C transitions were seen al all loads. The low temperature wear transition, giving an order of magnitude decrease in wear rate was associated with a change in friction behaviour. The friction force across the specimen was initially widely fluctuating and varied from cycle to cycle. After a time, which did not necessarily coincide with the wear transition the cyclic variation in the friction force become much less. This smoother sliding is thought to indicate a trend to oxide -oxide contacts. At higher temperatures wear transitions result in a two orders of magnitude reduction in wear. The corresponding friction transition was similar to the low temperature friction change but also included a marked temporary drop in the coefficient of friction. (author)

Force majeure: Will climate change affect our ability to attain Good Environmental Status for marine biodiversity?

Science.gov (United States)

Elliott, Michael; Borja, Ángel; McQuatters-Gollop, Abigail; Mazik, Krysia; Birchenough, Silvana; Andersen, Jesper H; Painting, Suzanne; Peck, Myron

2015-06-15

The EU Marine Strategy Framework Directive (MSFD) requires that Good Environmental Status (GEnS), is achieved for European seas by 2020. These may deviate from GEnS, its 11 Descriptors, targets and baselines, due to endogenic managed pressures (from activities within an area) and externally due to exogenic unmanaged pressures (e.g. climate change). Conceptual models detail the likely or perceived changes expected on marine biodiversity and GEnS Descriptors in the light of climate change. We emphasise that marine management has to accommodate 'shifting baselines' caused by climate change particularly during GEnS monitoring, assessment and management and 'unbounded boundaries' given the migration and dispersal of highly-mobile species. We suggest climate change may prevent GEnS being met, but Member States may rebut legal challenges by claiming that this is outside its control, force majeure or due to 'natural causes' (Article 14 of the MSFD). The analysis is relevant to management of other global seas. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Non-Toxic, Non-Flammable, -80 C Phase Change Materials

Science.gov (United States)

Cutbirth, J. Michael

2013-01-01

The objective of this effort was to develop a non-toxic, non-flammable, -80 C phase change material (PCM) to be used in NASA's ICEPAC capsules for biological sample preservation in flight to and from Earth orbit. A temperature of about -68 C or lower is a critical temperature for maintaining stable cell, tissue, and cell fragment storage.

Climate change forces new ecological states in tropical Andean lakes.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Neal Michelutti

Full Text Available Air temperatures in the tropical Andes have risen at an accelerated rate relative to the global average over recent decades. However, the effects of climate change on Andean lakes, which are vital to sustaining regional biodiversity and serve as an important water resource to local populations, remain largely unknown. Here, we show that recent climate changes have forced alpine lakes of the equatorial Andes towards new ecological and physical states, in close synchrony to the rapid shrinkage of glaciers regionally. Using dated sediment cores from three lakes in the southern Sierra of Ecuador, we record abrupt increases in the planktonic thalassiosiroid diatom Discostella stelligera from trace abundances to dominance within the phytoplankton. This unprecedented shift occurs against the backdrop of rising temperatures, changing atmospheric pressure fields, and declining wind speeds. Ecological restructuring in these lakes is linked to warming and/or enhanced water column stratification. In contrast to seasonally ice-covered Arctic and temperate alpine counterparts, aquatic production has not increased universally with warming, and has even declined in some lakes, possibly because enhanced thermal stability impedes the re-circulation of hypolimnetic nutrients to surface waters. Our results demonstrate that these lakes have already passed important ecological thresholds, with potentially far-reaching consequences for Andean water resources.

Lateral expansion and carbon exchange of a boreal peatland in Finland resulting in 7000 years of positive radiative forcing

Science.gov (United States)

Mathijssen, Paul J. H.; Kähkölä, Noora; Tuovinen, Juha-Pekka; Lohila, Annalea; Minkkinen, Kari; Laurila, Tuomas; Väliranta, Minna

2017-03-01

Data on past peatland growth patterns, vegetation development, and carbon (C) dynamics during the various Holocene climate phases may help us to understand possible future climate-peatland feedback mechanisms. In this study, we analyzed and radiocarbon dated several peat cores from Kalevansuo, a drained bog in southern Finland. We investigated peatland succession and C dynamics throughout the Holocene. These data were used to reconstruct the long-term atmospheric radiative forcing, i.e., climate impact of the peatland since initiation. Kalevansuo peat records revealed a general development from fen to bog, typical for the southern boreal zone, but the timing of ombrotrophication varied in different parts of the peatland. Peat accumulation patterns and lateral expansion through paludification were influenced by fires and climate conditions. Long-term C accumulation rates were overall lower than the average values found from literature. We suggest the low accumulation rates are due to repeated burning of the peat surface. Drainage for forestry resulted in a nearly complete replacement of typical bog mosses by forest species within 40 years after drainage. The radiative forcing reconstruction suggested positive values (warming) for the first 7000 years following initiation. The change from positive to negative forcing was triggered by an expansion of bog vegetation cover and later by drainage. The strong relationship between peatland area and peat type with radiative forcing suggests a possible feedback for future changing climate, as high-latitude peatlands may experience prominent regime shifts, such as fen to bog transitions.

Response of C3 and C4 plants to middle-Holocene climatic variation near the prairie-forest ecotone of Minnesota, U.S.A.

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Tian, J; Brown, T A; Hu, F S; Stefanova, I; Nelson, D M

2003-12-24

Paleorecords of the middle Holocene (MH) from the North American midcontinent can offer insights into ecological responses to pervasive drought that may accompany future climatic warming. We analyzed MH sediments from West Olaf Lake (WOL) and Steel Lake (SL) in Minnesota to examine the effects of warm/dry climatic conditions on prairie-woodland ecosystems. Mineral composition and carbonate {delta}{sup 18}O were used to determine climatic variations, whereas pollen assemblages, charcoal {delta}{sup 13}C, and charcoal accumulation rates were used to reconstruct vegetation composition, C{sub 3} and C{sub 4} plant abundance, and fire. The ratio of aragonite:calcite at WOL and {delta}{sup 18}O at SL suggest that pronounced droughts occurred during the MH but that drought severity decreased with time. From charcoal {delta}{sup 13}C data we estimated that the MH abundance of C{sub 4} plants averaged 50% at WOL and 43% at SL. At WOL C{sub 4} abundance was negatively correlated with aragonite:calcite, suggesting that severe moisture deficits suppressed C{sub 4} plants in favor of weedy C{sub 3} plants (e.g., Ambrosia). As climate ameliorated C{sub 4} abundance increased (from {approx}33 to 66%) at the expense of weedy species, enhancing fuel availability and fire occurrence. In contrast, farther east at SL climate was cooler and wetter than at WOL, and C{sub 4} abundance showed no correlation with {delta}{sup 18}O-inferred aridity. Woody C{sub 3} plants (e.g., Quercus) were more abundant, biomass flammability lower, and fires less important at SL than at WOL. Our results suggest that C{sub 4} plants are adapted to warm/dry climatic conditions, but not to extreme droughts, and that the fire regime is controlled by biomass-climate interactions.

Restoring tides to reduce methane emissions in impounded wetlands: A new and potent Blue Carbon climate change intervention.

Science.gov (United States)

Kroeger, Kevin D; Crooks, Stephen; Moseman-Valtierra, Serena; Tang, Jianwu

2017-09-20

Coastal wetlands are sites of rapid carbon (C) sequestration and contain large soil C stocks. Thus, there is increasing interest in those ecosystems as sites for anthropogenic greenhouse gas emission offset projects (sometimes referred to as "Blue Carbon"), through preservation of existing C stocks or creation of new wetlands to increase future sequestration. Here we show that in the globally-widespread occurrence of diked, impounded, drained and tidally-restricted salt marshes, substantial methane (CH 4 ) and CO 2 emission reductions can be achieved through restoration of disconnected saline tidal flows. Modeled climatic forcing indicates that tidal restoration to reduce emissions has a much greater impact per unit area than wetland creation or conservation to enhance sequestration. Given that GHG emissions in tidally-restricted, degraded wetlands are caused by human activity, they are anthropogenic emissions, and reducing them will have an effect on climate that is equivalent to reduced emission of an equal quantity of fossil fuel GHG. Thus, as a landuse-based climate change intervention, reducing CH 4 emissions is an entirely distinct concept from biological C sequestration projects to enhance C storage in forest or wetland biomass or soil, and will not suffer from the non-permanence risk that stored C will be returned to the atmosphere.

Restoring tides to reduce methane emissions in impounded wetlands: A new and potent Blue Carbon climate change intervention

Science.gov (United States)

Kroeger, Kevin D.; Crooks, Stephen; Moseman-Valtierra, Serena; Tang, Jianwu

2017-01-01

Coastal wetlands are sites of rapid carbon (C) sequestration and contain large soil C stocks. Thus, there is increasing interest in those ecosystems as sites for anthropogenic greenhouse gas emission offset projects (sometimes referred to as “Blue Carbon”), through preservation of existing C stocks or creation of new wetlands to increase future sequestration. Here we show that in the globally-widespread occurrence of diked, impounded, drained and tidally-restricted salt marshes, substantial methane (CH4) and CO2 emission reductions can be achieved through restoration of disconnected saline tidal flows. Modeled climatic forcing indicates that tidal restoration to reduce emissions has a much greater impact per unit area than wetland creation or conservation to enhance sequestration. Given that GHG emissions in tidally-restricted, degraded wetlands are caused by human activity, they are anthropogenic emissions, and reducing them will have an effect on climate that is equivalent to reduced emission of an equal quantity of fossil fuel GHG. Thus, as a landuse-based climate change intervention, reducing CH4 emissions is an entirely distinct concept from biological C sequestration projects to enhance C storage in forest or wetland biomass or soil, and will not suffer from the non-permanence risk that stored C will be returned to the atmosphere.

Solar forcing for CMIP6 (v3.2)

Science.gov (United States)

Matthes, Katja; Funke, Bernd; Andersson, Monika E.; Barnard, Luke; Beer, Jürg; Charbonneau, Paul; Clilverd, Mark A.; Dudok de Wit, Thierry; Haberreiter, Margit; Hendry, Aaron; Jackman, Charles H.; Kretzschmar, Matthieu; Kruschke, Tim; Kunze, Markus; Langematz, Ulrike; Marsh, Daniel R.; Maycock, Amanda C.; Misios, Stergios; Rodger, Craig J.; Scaife, Adam A.; Seppälä, Annika; Shangguan, Ming; Sinnhuber, Miriam; Tourpali, Kleareti; Usoskin, Ilya; van de Kamp, Max; Verronen, Pekka T.; Versick, Stefan

2017-06-01

5 predecessor by using time-slice experiments of two chemistry-climate models and a reference radiative transfer model. The differences in the long-term mean SSI in the CMIP6 dataset, compared to CMIP5, impact on climatological stratospheric conditions (lower shortwave heating rates of -0.35 K day-1 at the stratopause), cooler stratospheric temperatures (-1.5 K in the upper stratosphere), lower ozone abundances in the lower stratosphere (-3 %), and higher ozone abundances (+1.5 % in the upper stratosphere and lower mesosphere). Between the maximum and minimum phases of the 11-year solar cycle, there is an increase in shortwave heating rates (+0.2 K day-1 at the stratopause), temperatures ( ˜ 1 K at the stratopause), and ozone (+2.5 % in the upper stratosphere) in the tropical upper stratosphere using the CMIP6 forcing dataset. This solar-cycle response is slightly larger, but not statistically significantly different from that for the CMIP5 forcing dataset.CMIP6 models with a well-resolved shortwave radiation scheme are encouraged to prescribe SSI changes and include solar-induced stratospheric ozone variations, in order to better represent solar climate variability compared to models that only prescribe TSI and/or exclude the solar-ozone response. We show that monthly-mean solar-induced ozone variations are implicitly included in the SPARC/CCMI CMIP6 Ozone Database for historical simulations, which is derived from transient chemistry-climate model simulations and has been developed for climate models that do not calculate ozone interactively. CMIP6 models without chemistry that perform a preindustrial control simulation with time-varying solar forcing will need to use a modified version of the SPARC/CCMI Ozone Database that includes solar variability. CMIP6 models with interactive chemistry are also encouraged to use the particle forcing datasets, which will allow the potential long-term effects of particles to be addressed for the first time. The consideration of

Solar forcing for CMIP6 (v3.2

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

K. Matthes

2017-06-01

the CMIP6 solar forcing dataset to its CMIP5 predecessor by using time-slice experiments of two chemistry–climate models and a reference radiative transfer model. The differences in the long-term mean SSI in the CMIP6 dataset, compared to CMIP5, impact on climatological stratospheric conditions (lower shortwave heating rates of −0.35 K day−1 at the stratopause, cooler stratospheric temperatures (−1.5 K in the upper stratosphere, lower ozone abundances in the lower stratosphere (−3 %, and higher ozone abundances (+1.5 % in the upper stratosphere and lower mesosphere. Between the maximum and minimum phases of the 11-year solar cycle, there is an increase in shortwave heating rates (+0.2 K day−1 at the stratopause, temperatures ( ∼  1 K at the stratopause, and ozone (+2.5 % in the upper stratosphere in the tropical upper stratosphere using the CMIP6 forcing dataset. This solar-cycle response is slightly larger, but not statistically significantly different from that for the CMIP5 forcing dataset.CMIP6 models with a well-resolved shortwave radiation scheme are encouraged to prescribe SSI changes and include solar-induced stratospheric ozone variations, in order to better represent solar climate variability compared to models that only prescribe TSI and/or exclude the solar-ozone response. We show that monthly-mean solar-induced ozone variations are implicitly included in the SPARC/CCMI CMIP6 Ozone Database for historical simulations, which is derived from transient chemistry–climate model simulations and has been developed for climate models that do not calculate ozone interactively. CMIP6 models without chemistry that perform a preindustrial control simulation with time-varying solar forcing will need to use a modified version of the SPARC/CCMI Ozone Database that includes solar variability. CMIP6 models with interactive chemistry are also encouraged to use the particle forcing datasets, which will allow the potential long

Experimental evidence of reorganizing landscape under changing climatic forcing

Science.gov (United States)

Singh, A.; Tejedor, A.; Zaliapin, I. V.; Reinhardt, L.; Foufoula-Georgiou, E.

2015-12-01

Quantification of the dynamics of landscape reorganization under changing climatic forcing is important to understand geomorphic transport laws under transient conditions, assess response of landscapes to external perturbations for future predictive modeling, and for interpreting past climate from stratigraphic record. For such an analysis, however, real landscape observations are limited. To this end, a series of controlled laboratory experiments on evolving landscape were conducted at the St. Anthony Falls laboratory at the University of Minnesota. High resolution elevation data at a temporal resolution of 5 mins and spatial resolution of 0.5 mm were collected as the landscape approached steady state (constant uplift and precipitation rate) and in the transient state (under the same uplift and 5 times precipitation rate). Our results reveal rapid topographic re-organization under a five-fold increase in precipitation with the fluvial regime encroaching into the previously debris dominated regime, widening and aggradation of channels and valleys, and accelerated erosion happening at hillslope scales. To better understand the initiation of the observed reorganization, we perform a connectivity and clustering analysis of the erosional and depositional events, showing strikingly different spatial patterns on landscape evolution under steady-state (SS) and transient-state (TS), even when the time under SS is renormalized to match the total volume of eroded and deposited sediment in TS. Our results suggest a regime shift in the behavior of transport processes on the landscape at the intermediate scales i.e., from supply-limited to transport-limited.

Response of carbon fluxes and climate to orbital forcing changes in the Community Climate System Model

Science.gov (United States)

Jochum, M.; Peacock, S.; Moore, J. K.; Lindsay, K. T.

2009-12-01

A global general circulation model coupled to an ocean ecosystem model is used to quantify the response of carbon fluxes and climate to changes in orbital forcing. Compared to the present-day simulation, the simulation with the Earth's orbital parameters from 115,000 years ago features significantly cooler northern high latitudes, but only moderately cooler southern high latitudes. This asymmetry is explained by a 30% reduction of the strength of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation that is caused by an increased Arctic sea-ice export and a resulting freshening of the North Atlantic. The strong northern high-latitude cooling and the direct insolation induced tropical warming lead to global shifts in precipitation and winds to the order of 10-20%. These climate shifts lead to regional differences in air-sea carbon fluxes of the same order. However, the differences in global net carbon fluxes are insignificant. This surprising result is due to several effects, two of which stand out: Firstly, colder sea surface temperature leads to a more effective solubility pump but also to increased sea-ice concentration which blocks air-sea exchange; and secondly, the weakening of Southern Ocean winds, which is predicted by some idealized studies, is small compared to its interannual variability.

Inferring climate sensitivity from volcanic events

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Boer, G.J. [Environment Canada, University of Victoria, Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis, Victoria, BC (Canada); Stowasser, M.; Hamilton, K. [University of Hawaii, International Pacific Research Centre, Honolulu, HI (United States)

2007-04-15

The possibility of estimating the equilibrium climate sensitivity of the earth-system from observations following explosive volcanic eruptions is assessed in the context of a perfect model study. Two modern climate models (the CCCma CGCM3 and the NCAR CCSM2) with different equilibrium climate sensitivities are employed in the investigation. The models are perturbed with the same transient volcano-like forcing and the responses analysed to infer climate sensitivities. For volcano-like forcing the global mean surface temperature responses of the two models are very similar, despite their differing equilibrium climate sensitivities, indicating that climate sensitivity cannot be inferred from the temperature record alone even if the forcing is known. Equilibrium climate sensitivities can be reasonably determined only if both the forcing and the change in heat storage in the system are known very accurately. The geographic patterns of clear-sky atmosphere/surface and cloud feedbacks are similar for both the transient volcano-like and near-equilibrium constant forcing simulations showing that, to a considerable extent, the same feedback processes are invoked, and determine the climate sensitivity, in both cases. (orig.)

Global travel within the 2 °C climate target

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Girod, Bastien; Vuuren, Detlef P. van; Deetman, Sebastiaan

2012-01-01

Long-term scenarios generally project a steep increase in global travel demand, leading to an rapid rise in CO 2 emissions. Major driving forces are the increasing car use in developing countries and the global growth in air travel. Meeting the 2 °C climate target, however, requires a deep cut in CO 2 emissions. In this paper, we explore how extensive emission reductions may be achieved, using a newly developed travel model. This bottom-up model covers 26 world regions, 7 travel modes and different vehicle types. In the experiments, we applied a carbon tax and looked into the model’s responses in terms of overall travel demand, modal split shifts, and changes in technology and fuel choice. We introduce two main scenarios in which biofuels are assumed to be carbon neutral (not subject to taxation, scenario A) or to lead to some greenhouse gas emissions (and therefore subject to taxation, scenario B). This leads to very different outcomes. Scenario A achieves emission reductions mostly through changes in fuel use. In Scenario B efficiency improvement and model split changes also play a major role. In both scenarios total travel volume is affected only marginally. - Highlights: ► This study evaluates deep reduction in direct CO 2 emissions of passenger transportation. ► The TRAVEL model is used to derive cost optimal scenarios. ► TRAVEL considers changes in fuel use, energy efficiency and mode split. ► Emissions reductions in line with the 2 °C target are feasible. ► Despite high carbon tax resulting reduction in travel demand is low.

Comparison of hybrid spectral-decomposition artificial neural network models for understanding climatic forcing of groundwater levels

Science.gov (United States)

Abrokwah, K.; O'Reilly, A. M.

2017-12-01

Groundwater is an important resource that is extracted every day because of its invaluable use for domestic, industrial and agricultural purposes. The need for sustaining groundwater resources is clearly indicated by declining water levels and has led to modeling and forecasting accurate groundwater levels. In this study, spectral decomposition of climatic forcing time series was used to develop hybrid wavelet analysis (WA) and moving window average (MWA) artificial neural network (ANN) models. These techniques are explored by modeling historical groundwater levels in order to provide understanding of potential causes of the observed groundwater-level fluctuations. Selection of the appropriate decomposition level for WA and window size for MWA helps in understanding the important time scales of climatic forcing, such as rainfall, that influence water levels. Discrete wavelet transform (DWT) is used to decompose the input time-series data into various levels of approximate and details wavelet coefficients, whilst MWA acts as a low-pass signal-filtering technique for removing high-frequency signals from the input data. The variables used to develop and validate the models were daily average rainfall measurements from five National Atmospheric and Oceanic Administration (NOAA) weather stations and daily water-level measurements from two wells recorded from 1978 to 2008 in central Florida, USA. Using different decomposition levels and different window sizes, several WA-ANN and MWA-ANN models for simulating the water levels were created and their relative performances compared against each other. The WA-ANN models performed better than the corresponding MWA-ANN models; also higher decomposition levels of the input signal by the DWT gave the best results. The results obtained show the applicability and feasibility of hybrid WA-ANN and MWA-ANN models for simulating daily water levels using only climatic forcing time series as model inputs.

Climate Change Communicators: The C3E3 Project

Science.gov (United States)

Sharif, H. O.; Joseph, J.

2013-12-01

The University of Texas at San Antonio (UTSA), San Antonio College (SAC), and the University of North Dakota (UND) have partnered with NASA to provide underrepresented undergraduates from UTSA, SAC, and other community colleges climate-related research and education experiences through the Climate Change Communication: Engineer, Environmental science, and Education (C3E3) project. The program aims to develop a robust response to climate change by providing K-16 climate change education; enhance the effectiveness of K-16 education particularly in engineering and other STEM disciplines by use of new instructional technologies; increase the enrollment in engineering programs and the number of engineering degrees awarded by showing engineering's usefulness in relation to the much-discussed contemporary issue of climate change; increase persistence in STEM degrees by providing student research opportunities; and increase the ethnic diversity of those receiving engineering degrees and help ensure an ethnically diverse response to climate change. Students participated in the second summer internship funded by the project. More than 60 students participated in guided research experiences aligned with NASA Science Plan objectives for climate and Earth system science and the educational objectives of the three institutions. The students went through training in modern media technology (webcasts), and in using this technology to communicate the information on climate change to others, especially high school students, culminating in production of webcasts on investigating the aspects of climate change using NASA data. Content developed is leveraged by NASA Earth observation data and NASA Earth system models and tools. Several departments are involved in the educational program.

Quantitative assessment of contact and non-contact lateral force calibration methods for atomic force microscopy

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Tran Khac, Bien Cuong; Chung, Koo-Hyun, E-mail: khchung@ulsan.ac.kr

2016-02-15

Atomic Force Microscopy (AFM) has been widely used for measuring friction force at the nano-scale. However, one of the key challenges faced by AFM researchers is to calibrate an AFM system to interpret a lateral force signal as a quantifiable force. In this study, five rectangular cantilevers were used to quantitatively compare three different lateral force calibration methods to demonstrate the legitimacy and to establish confidence in the quantitative integrity of the proposed methods. The Flat-Wedge method is based on a variation of the lateral output on a surface with flat and changing slopes, the Multi-Load Pivot method is based on taking pivot measurements at several locations along the cantilever length, and the Lateral AFM Thermal-Sader method is based on determining the optical lever sensitivity from the thermal noise spectrum of the first torsional mode with a known torsional spring constant from the Sader method. The results of the calibration using the Flat-Wedge and Multi-Load Pivot methods were found to be consistent within experimental uncertainties, and the experimental uncertainties of the two methods were found to be less than 15%. However, the lateral force sensitivity determined by the Lateral AFM Thermal-Sader method was found to be 8–29% smaller than those obtained from the other two methods. This discrepancy decreased to 3–19% when the torsional mode correction factor for an ideal cantilever was used, which suggests that the torsional mode correction should be taken into account to establish confidence in Lateral AFM Thermal-Sader method. - Highlights: • Quantitative assessment of three lateral force calibration methods for AFM. • Advantages and disadvantages of three different lateral force calibration method. • Implementation of Multi-Load Pivot method as non-contact calibration technique. • The torsional mode correction for Lateral AFM Thermal-Sader method.

Quantitative assessment of contact and non-contact lateral force calibration methods for atomic force microscopy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tran Khac, Bien Cuong; Chung, Koo-Hyun

2016-01-01

Atomic Force Microscopy (AFM) has been widely used for measuring friction force at the nano-scale. However, one of the key challenges faced by AFM researchers is to calibrate an AFM system to interpret a lateral force signal as a quantifiable force. In this study, five rectangular cantilevers were used to quantitatively compare three different lateral force calibration methods to demonstrate the legitimacy and to establish confidence in the quantitative integrity of the proposed methods. The Flat-Wedge method is based on a variation of the lateral output on a surface with flat and changing slopes, the Multi-Load Pivot method is based on taking pivot measurements at several locations along the cantilever length, and the Lateral AFM Thermal-Sader method is based on determining the optical lever sensitivity from the thermal noise spectrum of the first torsional mode with a known torsional spring constant from the Sader method. The results of the calibration using the Flat-Wedge and Multi-Load Pivot methods were found to be consistent within experimental uncertainties, and the experimental uncertainties of the two methods were found to be less than 15%. However, the lateral force sensitivity determined by the Lateral AFM Thermal-Sader method was found to be 8–29% smaller than those obtained from the other two methods. This discrepancy decreased to 3–19% when the torsional mode correction factor for an ideal cantilever was used, which suggests that the torsional mode correction should be taken into account to establish confidence in Lateral AFM Thermal-Sader method. - Highlights: • Quantitative assessment of three lateral force calibration methods for AFM. • Advantages and disadvantages of three different lateral force calibration method. • Implementation of Multi-Load Pivot method as non-contact calibration technique. • The torsional mode correction for Lateral AFM Thermal-Sader method.

The European climate under a 2 °C global warming

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Vautard, Robert; Stegehuis, Annemiek; Gobiet, Andreas; Mendlik, Thomas; Sobolowski, Stefan; Kjellström, Erik; Nikulin, Grigory; Watkiss, Paul; Landgren, Oskar; Teichmann, Claas; Jacob, Daniela

2014-01-01

A global warming of 2 °C relative to pre-industrial climate has been considered as a threshold which society should endeavor to remain below, in order to limit the dangerous effects of anthropogenic climate change. The possible changes in regional climate under this target level of global warming have so far not been investigated in detail. Using an ensemble of 15 regional climate simulations downscaling six transient global climate simulations, we identify the respective time periods corresponding to 2 °C global warming, describe the range of projected changes for the European climate for this level of global warming, and investigate the uncertainty across the multi-model ensemble. Robust changes in mean and extreme temperature, precipitation, winds and surface energy budgets are found based on the ensemble of simulations. The results indicate that most of Europe will experience higher warming than the global average. They also reveal strong distributional patterns across Europe, which will be important in subsequent impact assessments and adaptation responses in different countries and regions. For instance, a North–South (West–East) warming gradient is found for summer (winter) along with a general increase in heavy precipitation and summer extreme temperatures. Tying the ensemble analysis to time periods with a prescribed global temperature change rather than fixed time periods allows for the identification of more robust regional patterns of temperature changes due to removal of some of the uncertainty related to the global models’ climate sensitivity. (paper)

Is the Labour Force Participation Rate Non-Stationary in Romania?

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Tiwari Aviral Kumar

2015-01-01

Full Text Available The purpose of this paper is to test hysteresis of the Romanian labour force participation rate, by using time series data, with quarterly frequency, covering the period 1999Q1-2013Q4. The main results reveal that the Romanian labour force participation rate is a nonlinear process and has a partial unit root (i.e. it is stationary in the first regime and non-stationary in the second one, the main breaking point being registered around year 2005. In this context, the value of using unemployment rate as an indicator for capturing joblessness in this country is debatable. Starting from 2005, the participation rate has not followed long-term changes in unemployment rate, the disturbances having permanent effects on labour force participation rate.

The role of forcing and internal dynamics in explaining the ''Medieval Climate Anomaly''

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Goosse, Hugues; Crespin, Elisabeth; Dubinkina, Svetlana; Loutre, Marie-France; Sallaz-Damaz, Yoann [Universite Catholique de Louvain, Earth and Life Institute, Georges Lemaitre Centre for Earth and Climate Research, Louvain-la-Neuve (Belgium); Mann, Michael E. [Pennsylvania State University, Department of Meteorology and Earth and Environmental Systems Institute, University Park, PA (United States); Renssen, Hans [Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, Section Climate Change and Landscape Dynamics, Department of Earth Sciences, Amsterdam (Netherlands); Shindell, Drew [NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York City, NY (United States)

2012-12-15

Proxy reconstructions suggest that peak global temperature during the past warm interval known as the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA, roughly 950-1250 AD) has been exceeded only during the most recent decades. To better understand the origin of this warm period, we use model simulations constrained by data assimilation establishing the spatial pattern of temperature changes that is most consistent with forcing estimates, model physics and the empirical information contained in paleoclimate proxy records. These numerical experiments demonstrate that the reconstructed spatial temperature pattern of the MCA can be explained by a simple thermodynamical response of the climate system to relatively weak changes in radiative forcing combined with a modification of the atmospheric circulation, displaying some similarities with the positive phase of the so-called Arctic Oscillation, and with northward shifts in the position of the Gulf Stream and Kuroshio currents. The mechanisms underlying the MCA are thus quite different from anthropogenic mechanisms responsible for modern global warming. (orig.)

Climate impact of anthropogenic aerosols on cirrus clouds

Science.gov (United States)

Penner, J.; Zhou, C.

2017-12-01

Cirrus clouds have a net warming effect on the atmosphere and cover about 30% of the Earth's area. Aerosol particles initiate ice formation in the upper troposphere through modes of action that include homogeneous freezing of solution droplets, heterogeneous nucleation on solid particles immersed in a solution, and deposition nucleation of vapor onto solid particles. However, the efficacy with which particles act to form cirrus particles in a model depends on the representation of updrafts. Here, we use a representation of updrafts based on observations of gravity waves, and follow ice formation/evaporation during both updrafts and downdrafts. We examine the possible change in ice number concentration from anthropogenic soot originating from surface sources of fossil fuel and biomass burning and from aircraft particles that have previously formed ice in contrails. Results show that fossil fuel and biomass burning soot aerosols with this version exert a radiative forcing of -0.15±0.02 Wm-2 while aircraft aerosols that have been pre-activated within contrails exert a forcing of -0.20±0.06 Wm-2, but it is possible to decrease these estimates of forcing if a larger fraction of dust particles act as heterogeneous ice nuclei. In addition aircraft aerosols may warm the climate if a large fraction of these particles act as ice nuclei. The magnitude of the forcing in cirrus clouds can be comparable to the forcing exerted by anthropogenic aerosols on warm clouds. This assessment could therefore support climate models with high sensitivity to greenhouse gas forcing, while still allowing the models to fit the overall historical temperature change.

Effect of non-stationary climate on infectious gastroenteritis transmission in Japan

Science.gov (United States)

Onozuka, Daisuke

2014-06-01

Local weather factors are widely considered to influence the transmission of infectious gastroenteritis. Few studies, however, have examined the non-stationary relationships between global climatic factors and transmission of infectious gastroenteritis. We analyzed monthly data for cases of infectious gastroenteritis in Fukuoka, Japan from 2000 to 2012 using cross-wavelet coherency analysis to assess the pattern of associations between indices for the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Infectious gastroenteritis cases were non-stationary and significantly associated with the IOD and ENSO (Multivariate ENSO Index [MEI], Niño 1 + 2, Niño 3, Niño 4, and Niño 3.4) for a period of approximately 1 to 2 years. This association was non-stationary and appeared to have a major influence on the synchrony of infectious gastroenteritis transmission. Our results suggest that non-stationary patterns of association between global climate factors and incidence of infectious gastroenteritis should be considered when developing early warning systems for epidemics of infectious gastroenteritis.

Attribution of the Regional Patterns of North American Climate Trends

Science.gov (United States)

Hoerling, M.; Kumar, A.; Karoly, D.; Rind, D.; Hegerl, G.; Eischeid, J.

2007-12-01

North American trends in surface temperature and precipitation during 1951-2006 exhibit large spatial and seasonal variations. We seek to explain these by synthesizing new information based on existing model simulations of climate and its forcing, and based on modern reanalyses that describe past and current conditions within the free atmosphere. The presentation focuses on current capabilities to explain the spatial variations and seasonal differences in North American climate trends. It will address whether various heterogeneities in space and time can be accounted for by the climate system's sensitivity to time evolving anthropogenic forcing, and examines the influences of non-anthropogenic processes. New findings are presented that indicate anthropogenic forcing alone was unlikely the cause for key regional and seasonal patterns of change, including the absence of summertime warming over the Great Plains of the United States, and the absence of warming during both winter and summer over the southern United States. Key regional features are instead attributed to trends in the principal patterns of atmospheric flow that affect North American climate. It is demonstrated that observed variations in global sea surface temperatures have significantly influenced these patterns of atmospheric flow.

Are the impacts of land use on warming underestimated in climate policy?

Science.gov (United States)

Mahowald, Natalie M.; Ward, Daniel S.; Doney, Scott C.; Hess, Peter G.; Randerson, James T.

2017-09-01

While carbon dioxide emissions from energy use must be the primary target of climate change mitigation efforts, land use and land cover change (LULCC) also represent an important source of climate forcing. In this study we compute time series of global surface temperature change separately for LULCC and non-LULCC sources (primarily fossil fuel burning), and show that because of the extra warming associated with the co-emission of methane and nitrous oxide with LULCC carbon dioxide emissions, and a co-emission of cooling aerosols with non-LULCC emissions of carbon dioxide, the linear relationship between cumulative carbon dioxide emissions and temperature has a two-fold higher slope for LULCC than for non-LULCC activities. Moreover, projections used in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) for the rate of tropical land conversion in the future are relatively low compared to contemporary observations, suggesting that the future projections of land conversion used in the IPCC may underestimate potential impacts of LULCC. By including a ‘business as usual’ future LULCC scenario for tropical deforestation, we find that even if all non-LULCC emissions are switched off in 2015, it is likely that 1.5 °C of warming relative to the preindustrial era will occur by 2100. Thus, policies to reduce LULCC emissions must remain a high priority if we are to achieve the low to medium temperature change targets proposed as a part of the Paris Agreement. Future studies using integrated assessment models and other climate simulations should include more realistic deforestation rates and the integration of policy that would reduce LULCC emissions.

Bounding the Role of Black Carbon in the Climate System: a Scientific Assessment

Science.gov (United States)

Bond, T. C.; Doherty, S. J.; Fahey, D. W.; Forster, P. M.; Bernsten, T.; DeAngelo, B. J.; Flanner, M. G.; Ghan, S.; Karcher, B.; Koch, D.;

Tipepidine, a non-narcotic antitussive, exerts an antidepressant-like effect in the forced swimming test in adrenocorticotropic hormone-treated rats.

Science.gov (United States)

Kawaura, Kazuaki; Ogata, Yukino; Honda, Sokichi; Soeda, Fumio; Shirasaki, Tetsuya; Takahama, Kazuo

2016-04-01

We investigated whether tipepidine exerts an antidepressant-like effect in the forced swimming test in adrenocorticotropic hormone (ACTH)-treated rats, which is known as a treatment-resistant depression model, and we studied the pharmacological mechanisms of the effects of tipepidine. Male Wistar rats (5-7 weeks old) were used in this study. Tipepidine (20 and 40 mg/kg, i.p.) decreased the immobility time in the forced swimming test in ACTH-treated rats. The anti-immobility effect of tipepidine was blocked by a catecholamine-depleting agent, alpha-methyl-p-tyrosine (300 mg/kg, s.c.), but not by a serotonin-depleting agent, p-chlorophenylalanine. The anti-immobility effect of tipepidine was also blocked by a dopamine D1 receptor antagonist, SCH23390 (0.02 mg/kg, s.c.) and an adrenaline α2 receptor antagonist, yohimbine (2 mg/kg, i.p.). In microdialysis technique, tipepidine (40 mg/kg, i.p.) increased the extracellular dopamine level of the nucleus accumbens (NAc) in ACTH-treated rats. These results suggest that tipepidine exerts an antidepressant-like effect in the forced swimming test in ACTH-treated rats, and that the effect of tipepidine is mediated by the stimulation of dopamine D1 receptors and adrenaline α2 receptors. The results also suggest that an increase in the extracellular dopamine level in the NAc may be involved in the antidepressant-like effect of tipepidine in ACTH-treated rats. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Terrestrial carbon cycle affected by non-uniform climate warming

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jianyang Xia; Yiqi Luo; Jiquan Chen; Shilong Piao; Ciais, Philippe; Shiqiang Wan

2014-01-01

Feedbacks between the terrestrial carbon cycle and climate change could affect many ecosystem functions and services, such as food production, carbon sequestration and climate regulation. The rate of climate warming varies on diurnal and seasonal timescales. A synthesis of global air temperature data reveals a greater rate of warming in winter than in summer in northern mid and high latitudes, and the inverse pattern in some tropical regions. The data also reveal a decline in the diurnal temperature range over 51% of the global land area and an increase over only 13%, because night-time temperatures in most locations have risen faster than daytime temperatures. Analyses of satellite data, model simulations and in situ observations suggest that the impact of seasonal warming varies between regions. For example, spring warming has largely stimulated ecosystem productivity at latitudes between 30 degrees and 90 degrees N, but suppressed productivity in other regions. Contrasting impacts of day- and night-time warming on plant carbon gain and loss are apparent in many regions. We argue that ascertaining the effects of non-uniform climate warming on terrestrial ecosystems is a key challenge in carbon cycle research. (authors)

Environmental forcing and Southern Ocean marine predator populations: effects of climate change and variability.

Science.gov (United States)

Trathan, P N; Forcada, J; Murphy, E J

2007-12-29

The Southern Ocean is a major component within the global ocean and climate system and potentially the location where the most rapid climate change is most likely to happen, particularly in the high-latitude polar regions. In these regions, even small temperature changes can potentially lead to major environmental perturbations. Climate change is likely to be regional and may be expressed in various ways, including alterations to climate and weather patterns across a variety of time-scales that include changes to the long interdecadal background signals such as the development of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Oscillating climate signals such as ENSO potentially provide a unique opportunity to explore how biological communities respond to change. This approach is based on the premise that biological responses to shorter-term sub-decadal climate variability signals are potentially the best predictor of biological responses over longer time-scales. Around the Southern Ocean, marine predator populations show periodicity in breeding performance and productivity, with relationships with the environment driven by physical forcing from the ENSO region in the Pacific. Wherever examined, these relationships are congruent with mid-trophic-level processes that are also correlated with environmental variability. The short-term changes to ecosystem structure and function observed during ENSO events herald potential long-term changes that may ensue following regional climate change. For example, in the South Atlantic, failure of Antarctic krill recruitment will inevitably foreshadow recruitment failures in a range of higher trophic-level marine predators. Where predator species are not able to accommodate by switching to other prey species, population-level changes will follow. The Southern Ocean, though oceanographically interconnected, is not a single ecosystem and different areas are dominated by different food webs. Where species occupy different positions in

Future wheat yields in Western Australia under a warmer and drier climate

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Farre, Imma; Foster, Ian; Charles, Steve

2007-01-01

Full text: Full text: Climate change projections for the mid 21st century for southern Western Australia indicate an increase in temperatures, a decrease in rainfall and higher C02 concentrations. These changes could have adverse impacts on some agricultural systems, but they may also offer new opportunities (i.e. in areas where the risk of waterlogging may be reduced). In this paper we studied the potential impacts of climate change on wheat production by combining three modelling systems. Daily climate data for current and future conditions from the CCAM climate model was statistically downscaled to individual locations in the Western Australia wheatbelt. This climate data was then input to the APSIM-Wheat simulation model to evaluate yields and phenology under current and future climate for several soil types. The aim was to investigate the usefulness of such a modelling cascade in defining key risks to wheat cropping from projected climate change. In an earlier stage of the project, we compared climate simulation from several climate models (CSIRO Mk3, CCAM, ECHAM and HADCM), and selected the CCAM model as best representing the climate of southern Western Australia. This was used for a more detailed study of the impacts on wheat cropping. The APSIM model simulates crop development, yield, water uptake and nitrogen accumulation in response to temperature, radiation, C02 level, water and nitrogen supply. It offers a framework for investigating interactions and testing some simple adaptation options. The CCAM model simulated total annual rainfall reductions of 5-11% for 2050 across the locations studied (consistent with other model projections). Total annual rainfall reductions tended to be higher in the high-rainfall locations than in the low- or medium-rainfall locations. The highest seasonal rainfall reduction was predicted for April-June, resulting in later sowing opportunities and decreasing expected yields. The impacts of climate change varied depending on

Lake sediment records of Quaternary climate change

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Moy, C.

2016-01-01

Lake sediments are excellent archives of climate and environmental change. Lakes typically exhibit high sedimentation rates, contain sedimentary components well-suited for a multi-proxy approach, multiple dating methods can be applied, exhibit a broad geographic distribution, and are relatively accessible for study. Furthermore, a number of geochemical techniques can be applied to recontsruct components of the climate system based on the stable isotope geochemistry of carbonate or organic phases preserved and exposed in lacustrine sedimentary cores. Various stable isotope methods can be applied to lacustrine systems and these are a valuable tool that can be used to monitor physical processes (e.g. evaporation), vegetation dynamics within the watershed (C 3 vs C 4 plant distributions), biologic processes (aquatic productivity), all of which can be driven by a regional climate forcing. (author).

Lake sediment records of Quaternary climate change

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Moy, C.

2014-01-01

Lake sediments are excellent archives of climate and environmental change. Lakes typically exhibit high sedimentation rates, contain sedimentary components well-suited for a multi-proxy approach, multiple dating methods can be applied, exhibit a broad geographic distribution, and are relatively accessible for study. Furthermore, a number of geochemical techniques can be applied to recontsruct components of the climate system based on the stable isotope geochemistry of carbonate or organic phases preserved and exposed in lacustrine sedimentary cores. Various stable isotope methods can be applied to lacustrine systems and these are a valuable tool that can be used to monitor physical processes (e.g. evaporation), vegetation dynamics within the watershed (C 3 vs C 4 plant distributions), biologic processes (aquatic productivity), all of which can be driven by a regional climate forcing. (author)

Lake sediment records of Quaternary climate change

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Moy, C.

2015-01-01

Lake sediments are excellent archives of climate and environmental change. Lakes typically exhibit high sedimentation rates, contain sedimentary components well-suited for a multi-proxy approach, multiple dating methods can be applied, exhibit a broad geographic distribution, and are relatively accessible for study. Furthermore, a number of geochemical techniques can be applied to recontsruct components of the climate system based on the stable isotope geochemistry of carbonate or organic phases preserved and exposed in lacustrine sedimentary cores. Various stable isotope methods can be applied to lacustrine systems and these are a valuable tool that can be used to monitor physical processes (e.g. evaporation), vegetation dynamics within the watershed (C 3 vs C 4 plant distributions), biologic processes (aquatic productivity), all of which can be driven by a regional climate forcing. (author)

Relativistic non-Hamiltonian mechanics

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tarasov, Vasily E.

2010-01-01

Relativistic particle subjected to a general four-force is considered as a nonholonomic system. The nonholonomic constraint in four-dimensional space-time represents the relativistic invariance by the equation for four-velocity u μ u μ + c 2 = 0, where c is the speed of light in vacuum. In the general case, four-forces are non-potential, and the relativistic particle is a non-Hamiltonian system in four-dimensional pseudo-Euclidean space-time. We consider non-Hamiltonian and dissipative systems in relativistic mechanics. Covariant forms of the principle of stationary action and the Hamilton's principle for relativistic mechanics of non-Hamiltonian systems are discussed. The equivalence of these principles is considered for relativistic particles subjected to potential and non-potential forces. We note that the equations of motion which follow from the Hamilton's principle are not equivalent to the equations which follow from the variational principle of stationary action. The Hamilton's principle and the principle of stationary action are not compatible in the case of systems with nonholonomic constraint and the potential forces. The principle of stationary action for relativistic particle subjected to non-potential forces can be used if the Helmholtz conditions are satisfied. The Hamilton's principle and the principle of stationary action are equivalent only for a special class of relativistic non-Hamiltonian systems.

Two sides of a coin: Effects of climate change on the native and non-native distribution of Colossoma macropomum in South America.

Science.gov (United States)

Lopes, Taise M; Bailly, Dayani; Almeida, Bia A; Santos, Natália C L; Gimenez, Barbara C G; Landgraf, Guilherme O; Sales, Paulo C L; Lima-Ribeiro, Matheus S; Cassemiro, Fernanda A S; Rangel, Thiago F; Diniz-Filho, José A F; Agostinho, Angelo A; Gomes, Luiz C

2017-01-01

Climate change and species invasions interact in nature, disrupting biological communities. Based on this knowledge, we simultaneously assessed the effects of climate change on the native distribution of the Amazonian fish Colossoma macropomum as well as on its invasiveness across river basins of South America, using ecological niche modeling. We used six niche models within the ensemble forecast context to predict the geographical distribution of C. macropomum for the present time, 2050 and 2080. Given that this species has been continuously introduced into non-native South American basins by fish farming activities, we added the locations of C. macropomum farms into the modeling process to obtain a more realistic scenario of its invasive potential. Based on modelling outputs we mapped climate refuge areas at different times. Our results showed that a plenty of climatically suitable areas for the occurrence of C. macropomum occurrence are located outside the original basins at the present time and that its invasive potential is greatly amplified by fish farms. Simulations of future geographic ranges revealed drastic range contraction in the native region, implying concerns not only with respect to the species conservation but also from a socio-economic perspective since the species is a cornerstone of artisanal and commercial fisheries in the Amazon. Although the invasive potential is projected to decrease in the face of climate change, climate refugia will concentrate in Paraná River, Southeast Atlantic and East Atlantic basins, putting intense, negative pressures on the native fish fauna these regions. Our findings show that short and long-term management actions are required for: i) the conservation of natural stocks of C. macropomum in the Amazon, and ii) protecting native fish fauna in the climate refuges of the invaded regions.

Two sides of a coin: Effects of climate change on the native and non-native distribution of Colossoma macropomum in South America.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Taise M Lopes

Full Text Available Climate change and species invasions interact in nature, disrupting biological communities. Based on this knowledge, we simultaneously assessed the effects of climate change on the native distribution of the Amazonian fish Colossoma macropomum as well as on its invasiveness across river basins of South America, using ecological niche modeling. We used six niche models within the ensemble forecast context to predict the geographical distribution of C. macropomum for the present time, 2050 and 2080. Given that this species has been continuously introduced into non-native South American basins by fish farming activities, we added the locations of C. macropomum farms into the modeling process to obtain a more realistic scenario of its invasive potential. Based on modelling outputs we mapped climate refuge areas at different times. Our results showed that a plenty of climatically suitable areas for the occurrence of C. macropomum occurrence are located outside the original basins at the present time and that its invasive potential is greatly amplified by fish farms. Simulations of future geographic ranges revealed drastic range contraction in the native region, implying concerns not only with respect to the species conservation but also from a socio-economic perspective since the species is a cornerstone of artisanal and commercial fisheries in the Amazon. Although the invasive potential is projected to decrease in the face of climate change, climate refugia will concentrate in Paraná River, Southeast Atlantic and East Atlantic basins, putting intense, negative pressures on the native fish fauna these regions. Our findings show that short and long-term management actions are required for: i the conservation of natural stocks of C. macropomum in the Amazon, and ii protecting native fish fauna in the climate refuges of the invaded regions.

Prevalence of Hepatitis B and C in US Air Force Basic Military Trainees

Science.gov (United States)

2017-08-29

REPORT TYPE 08/29/2017 Journal -4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE Prevalence ofliepatitis B and C in US Air Force Basic Military Trainees 6. AUTHOR(S) Capt...unlimited. 13. SUPPLEMENTARY NOTES 14. ABSTRACT 15. SUBJECT TERMS 16. SECURITY CLASSIFICATION OF: 17. LIMITATION OF 18. NUMBER a. REPORT b.ABSTRACT c ...Prescnbed by ANSI Sld, Z3B.16 Adobe Prnfeodohal 7.0 Prevalence of Hepatitis Band C in US Air Force Basic Military Trainees from Blood Donations 2 3

Non-stationary dynamics of climate variability in synchronous influenza epidemics in Japan

Science.gov (United States)

Onozuka, Daisuke; Hagihara, Akihito

2015-09-01

Seasonal variation in the incidence of influenza is widely assumed. However, few studies have examined non-stationary relationships between global climate factors and influenza epidemics. We examined the monthly incidence of influenza in Fukuoka, Japan, from 2000 to 2012 using cross-wavelet coherency analysis to assess the patterns of associations between indices for the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The monthly incidence of influenza showed cycles of 1 year with the IOD and 2 years with ENSO indices (Multivariate, Niño 4, and Niño 3.4). These associations were non-stationary and appeared to have major influences on the synchrony of influenza epidemics. Our study provides quantitative evidence that non-stationary associations have major influences on synchrony between the monthly incidence of influenza and the dynamics of the IOD and ENSO. Our results call for the consideration of non-stationary patterns of association between influenza cases and climatic factors in early warning systems.

Impact of climate warming on upper layer of the Bering Sea

Science.gov (United States)

Lee, Hyun-Chul; Delworth, Thomas L.; Rosati, Anthony; Zhang, Rong; Anderson, Whit G.; Zeng, Fanrong; Stock, Charles A.; Gnanadesikan, Anand; Dixon, Keith W.; Griffies, Stephen M.

2013-01-01

The impact of climate warming on the upper layer of the Bering Sea is investigated by using a high-resolution coupled global climate model. The model is forced by increasing atmospheric CO2 at a rate of 1% per year until CO2 reaches double its initial value (after 70 years), after which it is held constant. In response to this forcing, the upper layer of the Bering Sea warms by about 2°C in the southeastern shelf and by a little more than 1°C in the western basin. The wintertime ventilation to the permanent thermocline weakens in the western Bering Sea. After CO2 doubling, the southeastern shelf of the Bering Sea becomes almost ice-free in March, and the stratification of the upper layer strengthens in May and June. Changes of physical condition due to the climate warming would impact the pre-condition of spring bio-productivity in the southeastern shelf.

Can miscanthus C4 photosynthesis compete with festulolium C3 photosynthesis in a temperate climate?

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Jiao, Xiurong; Kørup, Kirsten; Andersen, Mathias Neumann

2017-01-01

Miscanthus, a perennial grass with C4 photosynthesis, is regarded as a promising energy crop due to its high biomass productivity. Compared with other C4 species, most miscanthus genotypes have high cold tolerances at 14 °C. However, in temperate climates, temperatures below 14 °C are common...... at each temperature level and still maintained photosynthesis after growing for a longer period at 6/4 °C. Only two of five measured miscanthus genotypes increased photosynthesis immediately after the temperature was raised again. The photosynthetic capacity of festulolium was significantly higher at 10...

Modeling of Non-Gravitational Forces for Precise and Accurate Orbit Determination

Science.gov (United States)

Hackel, Stefan; Gisinger, Christoph; Steigenberger, Peter; Balss, Ulrich; Montenbruck, Oliver; Eineder, Michael

2014-05-01

Remote sensing satellites support a broad range of scientific and commercial applications. The two radar imaging satellites TerraSAR-X and TanDEM-X provide spaceborne Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) and interferometric SAR data with a very high accuracy. The precise reconstruction of the satellite's trajectory is based on the Global Positioning System (GPS) measurements from a geodetic-grade dual-frequency Integrated Geodetic and Occultation Receiver (IGOR) onboard the spacecraft. The increasing demand for precise radar products relies on validation methods, which require precise and accurate orbit products. An analysis of the orbit quality by means of internal and external validation methods on long and short timescales shows systematics, which reflect deficits in the employed force models. Following the proper analysis of this deficits, possible solution strategies are highlighted in the presentation. The employed Reduced Dynamic Orbit Determination (RDOD) approach utilizes models for gravitational and non-gravitational forces. A detailed satellite macro model is introduced to describe the geometry and the optical surface properties of the satellite. Two major non-gravitational forces are the direct and the indirect Solar Radiation Pressure (SRP). The satellite TerraSAR-X flies on a dusk-dawn orbit with an altitude of approximately 510 km above ground. Due to this constellation, the Sun almost constantly illuminates the satellite, which causes strong across-track accelerations on the plane rectangular to the solar rays. The indirect effect of the solar radiation is called Earth Radiation Pressure (ERP). This force depends on the sunlight, which is reflected by the illuminated Earth surface (visible spectra) and the emission of the Earth body in the infrared spectra. Both components of ERP require Earth models to describe the optical properties of the Earth surface. Therefore, the influence of different Earth models on the orbit quality is assessed. The scope of

Efficient climate policies under technology and climate uncertainty

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Held, Hermann; Kriegler, Elmar; Lessmann, Kai; Edenhofer, Ottmar

2009-01-01

This article explores efficient climate policies in terms of investment streams into fossil and renewable energy technologies. The investment decisions maximise social welfare while observing a probabilistic guardrail for global mean temperature rise under uncertain technology and climate parameters. Such a guardrail constitutes a chance constraint, and the resulting optimisation problem is an instance of chance constrained programming, not stochastic programming as often employed. Our analysis of a model of economic growth and endogenous technological change, MIND, suggests that stringent mitigation strategies cannot guarantee a very high probability of limiting warming to 2 o C since preindustrial time under current uncertainty about climate sensitivity and climate response time scale. Achieving the 2 o C temperature target with a probability P* of 75% requires drastic carbon dioxide emission cuts. This holds true even though we have assumed an aggressive mitigation policy on other greenhouse gases from, e.g., the agricultural sector. The emission cuts are deeper than estimated from a deterministic calculation with climate sensitivity fixed at the P* quantile of its marginal probability distribution (3.6 o C). We show that earlier and cumulatively larger investments into the renewable sector are triggered by including uncertainty in the technology and climate response time scale parameters. This comes at an additional GWP loss of 0.3%, resulting in a total loss of 0.8% GWP for observing the chance constraint. We obtained those results with a new numerical scheme to implement constrained welfare optimisation under uncertainty as a chance constrained programming problem in standard optimisation software such as GAMS. The scheme is able to incorporate multivariate non-factorial probability measures such as given by the joint distribution of climate sensitivity and response time. We demonstrate the scheme for the case of a four-dimensional parameter space capturing

The influence of atmospheric grid resolution in a climate model-forced ice sheet simulation

Science.gov (United States)

Lofverstrom, Marcus; Liakka, Johan

2018-04-01

Coupled climate-ice sheet simulations have been growing in popularity in recent years. Experiments of this type are however challenging as ice sheets evolve over multi-millennial timescales, which is beyond the practical integration limit of most Earth system models. A common method to increase model throughput is to trade resolution for computational efficiency (compromise accuracy for speed). Here we analyze how the resolution of an atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) influences the simulation quality in a stand-alone ice sheet model. Four identical AGCM simulations of the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) were run at different horizontal resolutions: T85 (1.4°), T42 (2.8°), T31 (3.8°), and T21 (5.6°). These simulations were subsequently used as forcing of an ice sheet model. While the T85 climate forcing reproduces the LGM ice sheets to a high accuracy, the intermediate resolution cases (T42 and T31) fail to build the Eurasian ice sheet. The T21 case fails in both Eurasia and North America. Sensitivity experiments using different surface mass balance parameterizations improve the simulations of the Eurasian ice sheet in the T42 case, but the compromise is a substantial ice buildup in Siberia. The T31 and T21 cases do not improve in the same way in Eurasia, though the latter simulates the continent-wide Laurentide ice sheet in North America. The difficulty to reproduce the LGM ice sheets in the T21 case is in broad agreement with previous studies using low-resolution atmospheric models, and is caused by a substantial deterioration of the model climate between the T31 and T21 resolutions. It is speculated that this deficiency may demonstrate a fundamental problem with using low-resolution atmospheric models in these types of experiments.

The effect of climate policy on the impacts of climate change on river flows in the UK

Science.gov (United States)

Arnell, Nigel W.; Charlton, Matthew B.; Lowe, Jason A.

2014-03-01

This paper compares the effects of two indicative climate mitigation policies on river flows in six catchments in the UK with two scenarios representing un-mitigated emissions. It considers the consequences of uncertainty in both the pattern of catchment climate change as represented by different climate models and hydrological model parameterisation on the effects of mitigation policy. Mitigation policy has little effect on estimated flow magnitudes in 2030. By 2050 a mitigation policy which achieves a 2 °C temperature rise target reduces impacts on low flows by 20-25% compared to a business-as-usual emissions scenario which increases temperatures by 4 °C by the end of the 21st century, but this is small compared to the range in impacts between different climate model scenarios. However, the analysis also demonstrates that an early peak in emissions would reduce impacts by 40-60% by 2080 (compared with the 4 °C pathway), easing the adaptation challenge over the long term, and can delay by several decades the impacts that would be experienced from around 2050 in the absence of policy. The estimated proportion of impacts avoided varies between climate model patterns and, to a lesser extent, hydrological model parameterisations, due to variations in the projected shape of the relationship between climate forcing and hydrological response.

A double-integration hypothesis to explain ocean ecosystem response to climate forcing

Science.gov (United States)

Di Lorenzo, Emanuele; Ohman, Mark D.

2013-01-01

Long-term time series of marine ecological indicators often are characterized by large-amplitude state transitions that can persist for decades. Understanding the significance of these variations depends critically on the underlying hypotheses characterizing expected natural variability. Using a linear autoregressive model in combination with long-term zooplankton observations off the California coast, we show that cumulative integrations of white-noise atmospheric forcing can generate marine population responses that are characterized by strong transitions and prolonged apparent state changes. This model provides a baseline hypothesis for explaining ecosystem variability and for interpreting the significance of abrupt responses and climate change signatures in marine ecosystems. PMID:23341628

Future climate forcing potentially without precedent in the last 420 million years.

Science.gov (United States)

Foster, Gavin L; Royer, Dana L; Lunt, Daniel J

2017-04-04

The evolution of Earth's climate on geological timescales is largely driven by variations in the magnitude of total solar irradiance (TSI) and changes in the greenhouse gas content of the atmosphere. Here we show that the slow ∼50 Wm -2 increase in TSI over the last ∼420 million years (an increase of ∼9 Wm -2 of radiative forcing) was almost completely negated by a long-term decline in atmospheric CO 2 . This was likely due to the silicate weathering-negative feedback and the expansion of land plants that together ensured Earth's long-term habitability. Humanity's fossil-fuel use, if unabated, risks taking us, by the middle of the twenty-first century, to values of CO 2 not seen since the early Eocene (50 million years ago). If CO 2 continues to rise further into the twenty-third century, then the associated large increase in radiative forcing, and how the Earth system would respond, would likely be without geological precedent in the last half a billion years.

Reproducing multi-model ensemble average with Ensemble-averaged Reconstructed Forcings (ERF) in regional climate modeling

Science.gov (United States)

Erfanian, A.; Fomenko, L.; Wang, G.

2016-12-01

Multi-model ensemble (MME) average is considered the most reliable for simulating both present-day and future climates. It has been a primary reference for making conclusions in major coordinated studies i.e. IPCC Assessment Reports and CORDEX. The biases of individual models cancel out each other in MME average, enabling the ensemble mean to outperform individual members in simulating the mean climate. This enhancement however comes with tremendous computational cost, which is especially inhibiting for regional climate modeling as model uncertainties can originate from both RCMs and the driving GCMs. Here we propose the Ensemble-based Reconstructed Forcings (ERF) approach to regional climate modeling that achieves a similar level of bias reduction at a fraction of cost compared with the conventional MME approach. The new method constructs a single set of initial and boundary conditions (IBCs) by averaging the IBCs of multiple GCMs, and drives the RCM with this ensemble average of IBCs to conduct a single run. Using a regional climate model (RegCM4.3.4-CLM4.5), we tested the method over West Africa for multiple combination of (up to six) GCMs. Our results indicate that the performance of the ERF method is comparable to that of the MME average in simulating the mean climate. The bias reduction seen in ERF simulations is achieved by using more realistic IBCs in solving the system of equations underlying the RCM physics and dynamics. This endows the new method with a theoretical advantage in addition to reducing computational cost. The ERF output is an unaltered solution of the RCM as opposed to a climate state that might not be physically plausible due to the averaging of multiple solutions with the conventional MME approach. The ERF approach should be considered for use in major international efforts such as CORDEX. Key words: Multi-model ensemble, ensemble analysis, ERF, regional climate modeling

Effects of lorentz force on flow fields of free burning arc and wall stabilized non-transferred arc

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Peng Yi; Huang Heji; Pan Wenxia

2013-01-01

The flow fields of two typical DC plasma arcs, namely the transferred free burning arc and the non-transferred arc were simulated by solving hydrodynamic equations and electromagnetic equations. The effects of the Lorentz force on the characteristics of the flow fields of these two typical DC plasma arcs were estimated. Results show that in the case of the free burning arc, the Lorentz force due to the current self-induced magnetic field has significant impact on the flow fields, as the self-induced magnetic compression is the main arc constraint mechanism. However, in the case of the non-transferred arc generated in a torch with long and narrow inter-electrode inserts and an abruptly expanded anode, the Lorentz force has limited impact on the flow fields of the plasma especially at the downstream of the inter-electrode inserts, compared with the strong wall constraints and relatively high aerodynamic force. This is because the ratio of the electromagnetic force to the aerodynamic force is only about 0.01 in this region. When the main consideration is outlet parameters of the wall stabilized non-transferred DC arc plasma generator, in order to improve the efficiency of the numerical simulation program, the Lorentz force could be neglected in the non-transferred arc in some cases. (authors)

Stand age and climate drive forest carbon balance recovery

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Besnard, Simon; Carvalhais, Nuno; Clevers, Jan; Herold, Martin; Jung, Martin; Reichstein, Markus

2016-04-01

Forests play an essential role in the terrestrial carbon (C) cycle, especially in the C exchanges between the terrestrial biosphere and the atmosphere. Ecological disturbances and forest management are drivers of forest dynamics and strongly impact the forest C budget. However, there is a lack of knowledge on the exogenous and endogenous factors driving forest C recovery. Our analysis includes 68 forest sites in different climate zones to determine the relative influence of stand age and climate conditions on the forest carbon balance recovery. In this study, we only included forest regrowth after clear-cut stand replacement (e.g. harvest, fire), and afforestation/reforestation processes. We synthesized net ecosystem production (NEP), gross primary production (GPP), ecosystem respiration (Re), the photosynthetic respiratory ratio (GPP to Re ratio), the ecosystem carbon use efficiency (CUE), that is NEP to GPP ratio, and CUEclimax, where GPP is derived from the climate conditions. We implemented a non-linear regression analysis in order to identify the best model representing the C flux patterns with stand age. Furthermore, we showed that each C flux have a non-linear relationship with stand age, annual precipitation (P) and mean annual temperature (MAT), therefore, we proposed to use non-linear transformations of the covariates for C fluxes'estimates. Non-linear stand age and climate models were, therefore, used to establish multiple linear regressions for C flux predictions and for determining the contribution of stand age and climate in forest carbon recovery. Our findings depicted that a coupled stand age-climate model explained 33% (44%, average site), 62% (76%, average site), 56% (71%, average site), 41% (59%, average site), 50% (65%, average site) and 36% (50%, average site) of the variance of annual NEP, GPP, Re, photosynthetic respiratory ratio, CUE and CUEclimax across sites, respectively. In addition, we showed that gross fluxes (e.g. GPP and Re) are

A simplified, data-constrained approach to estimate the permafrost carbon-climate feedback.

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Koven, C D; Schuur, E A G; Schädel, C; Bohn, T J; Burke, E J; Chen, G; Chen, X; Ciais, P; Grosse, G; Harden, J W; Hayes, D J; Hugelius, G; Jafarov, E E; Krinner, G; Kuhry, P; Lawrence, D M; MacDougall, A H; Marchenko, S S; McGuire, A D; Natali, S M; Nicolsky, D J; Olefeldt, D; Peng, S; Romanovsky, V E; Schaefer, K M; Strauss, J; Treat, C C; Turetsky, M

2015-11-13

We present an approach to estimate the feedback from large-scale thawing of permafrost soils using a simplified, data-constrained model that combines three elements: soil carbon (C) maps and profiles to identify the distribution and type of C in permafrost soils; incubation experiments to quantify the rates of C lost after thaw; and models of soil thermal dynamics in response to climate warming. We call the approach the Permafrost Carbon Network Incubation-Panarctic Thermal scaling approach (PInc-PanTher). The approach assumes that C stocks do not decompose at all when frozen, but once thawed follow set decomposition trajectories as a function of soil temperature. The trajectories are determined according to a three-pool decomposition model fitted to incubation data using parameters specific to soil horizon types. We calculate litterfall C inputs required to maintain steady-state C balance for the current climate, and hold those inputs constant. Soil temperatures are taken from the soil thermal modules of ecosystem model simulations forced by a common set of future climate change anomalies under two warming scenarios over the period 2010 to 2100. Under a medium warming scenario (RCP4.5), the approach projects permafrost soil C losses of 12.2-33.4 Pg C; under a high warming scenario (RCP8.5), the approach projects C losses of 27.9-112.6 Pg C. Projected C losses are roughly linearly proportional to global temperature changes across the two scenarios. These results indicate a global sensitivity of frozen soil C to climate change (γ sensitivity) of -14 to -19 Pg C °C(-1) on a 100 year time scale. For CH4 emissions, our approach assumes a fixed saturated area and that increases in CH4 emissions are related to increased heterotrophic respiration in anoxic soil, yielding CH4 emission increases of 7% and 35% for the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, respectively, which add an additional greenhouse gas forcing of approximately 10-18%. The simplified approach

Open access to Water Indicators for Climate Change Adaptation: proof-of-concept for the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S)

Science.gov (United States)

Lottle, Lorna; Arheimer, Berit; Gyllensvärd, Frida; Dejong, Fokke; Ludwig, Fulco; Hutjes, Ronald; Martinez, Bernat

2017-04-01

Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) is still in the development phase and will combine observations of the climate system with the latest science to develop authoritative, quality-assured information about the past, current and future states of the climate and climate dependent sectors in Europe and worldwide. C3S will provide key indicators on climate change drivers and selected sectorial impacts. The aim of these indicators will be to support adaptation and mitigation. This presentation will show one service already operational as a proof-of-concept of this future climate service. The project "Service for Water Indicators in Climate Change Adaptation" (SWICCA) has developed a sectorial information service for water management. It offers readily available climate-impact data, for open access from the web-site http://swicca.climate.copernicus.eu/. The development is user-driven with the overall goal to speed up the workflow in climate-change adaptation of water management across Europe. The service is co-designed by consultant engineers and agencies in 15 case-studies spread out over the continent. SWICCA has an interactive user-interface, which shows maps and graphs, and facilitates data download in user-friendly formats. In total, more than 900 open dataset are given for various hydrometeorological (and a few socioeconomical) variables, model ensembles, resolutions, time-periods and RCPs. The service offers more than 40 precomputed climate impact indicators (CIIs) and transient time-series of 4 essential climate variables ECVs) with high spatial and temporal resolution. To facilitate both near future and far future assessments, SWICCA provides the indicators for different time ranges; normally, absolute values are given for a reference period (e.g. 1971-2000) and the expected future changes for different 30-year periods, such as early century (2011-2040), mid-century (2041-2070) and end-century (2071-2100). An ensemble of model results is always given to

Climate implications of including albedo effects in terrestrial carbon policy

Science.gov (United States)

Jones, A. D.; Collins, W.; Torn, M. S.; Calvin, K. V.

2012-12-01

change, 2) an increase in CO2 concentrations that exactly balances the forcing from land use change at the global level, and 3) a simulation combining the first two effects, resulting in net zero global-mean forcing as would occur in an idealized carbon cap-and-trade scheme that accounts for the albedo effect of land use change. The pattern of land use change that we examine is derived from an integrated assessment model that accounts for population, demographic, technological, and policy changes over the 21st century. We find significant differences in the pattern of climate change associated with each of these forcing scenarios, demonstrating the non-additivity of radiative forcing from land-use change and greenhouse gases in the context of a hypothetical scenario of future land use change. These results have implications for the development of land use and climate policies.

Greenhouse gas policy influences climate via direct effects of land-use change

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Jones, Andrew D.; Collins, William D.; Edmonds, James A.; Torn, Margaret S.; Janetos, Anthony C.; Calvin, Katherine V.; Thomson, Allison M.; Chini, Louise M.; Mao, Jiafu; Shi, Xiaoying; Thornton, Peter; Hurtt, George; Wise, Marshall A.

2013-06-01

Proposed climate mitigation measures do not account for direct biophysical climate impacts of land-use change (LUC), nor do the stabilization targets modeled for the 5th Climate Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). To examine the significance of such effects on global and regional patterns of climate change, a baseline and alternative scenario of future anthropogenic activity are simulated within the Integrated Earth System Model, which couples the Global Change Assessment Model, Global Land-use Model, and Community Earth System Model. The alternative scenario has high biofuel utilization and approximately 50% less global forest cover compared to the baseline, standard RCP4.5 scenario. Both scenarios stabilize radiative forcing from atmospheric constituents at 4.5 W/m2 by 2100. Thus, differences between their climate predictions quantify the biophysical effects of LUC. Offline radiative transfer and land model simulations are also utilized to identify forcing and feedback mechanisms driving the coupled response. Boreal deforestation is found to strongly influence climate due to increased albedo coupled with a regional-scale water vapor feedback. Globally, the alternative scenario yields a 21st century warming trend that is 0.5 °C cooler than baseline, driven by a 1 W/m2 mean decrease in radiative forcing that is distributed unevenly around the globe. Some regions are cooler in the alternative scenario than in 2005. These results demonstrate that neither climate change nor actual radiative forcing are uniquely related to atmospheric forcing targets such as those found in the RCP’s, but rather depend on particulars of the socioeconomic pathways followed to meet each target.

Climate change science - beyond IPCC

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nicholls, N.

2007-01-01

-average temperatures, temperature extremes and wind patterns; For the next two decades, a warming of about 0.2 0 C per decade is projected for a range of emission scenarios. Even if the concentrations of all greenhouse gases and aerosols had been kept constant at year 2000 levels, a further warming of about 0.1 0 C per decade would be expected; Continued greenhouse gas emissions at or above current rates would cause further warming and induce many changes in the global climate system during the 21st century that would very likely be larger than those observed during the 20th century; Anthropogenic warming and sea level rise would continue for centuries due to the time scales associated with climate processes and feedbacks, even if greenhouse gas concentrations were to be stabilised. The question of whether the IPCC Assessment is conservative will be considered, and those aspects of climate change on which there is still considerable uncertainty and a lack of consensus will be noted and discussed

Inflammatory Biomarkers and Liver Histopathology in Non-Uremic and Uremic Chronic Hepatitis C Patients

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Bengu Tatar

2017-10-01

Full Text Available Background: The aim of this study is to investigate the association between hepatic activity index (HAI and fibrosis score (FS with inflammation biomarkers in non-uremic and uremic hepatitis C positive patients. Methods: Fifty chronic hepatitis C (cHepC positive patients, having a liver biopsy were included in this study. Liver biopsies were scored according to modified ISHAC scoring system. 25 healthy controls of similar age and gender were also enrolled as control group. Serum YKL-40, neutrophil/lymphocyte ratio (NLR, thrombocyte/lymphocyte ratio (PLR, CRP and Immunoglobulin (IgG, A and M levels were used to determine inflammation. AST to Platelet Ratio Index (APRI score was also evaluated. According to biopsy findings patients were divided into 2 groups: low (0–2 and severe (3–6 FS. Results: Patients with cHepC had increased inflammation compared to the healthy controls. End-stage renal disease (ESRD patients had higher levels of inflammation markers (NLR, IgG, CRP and YKL-40 and lower HCV RNA levels, HAI and FS compared to non-uremic patients. When patients were grouped into 2 according to FS as mild and severe, IgG (p < 0.001, YKL-40 (p = 0.02 levels and APRI score (p = 0.002 were significantly higher compared to mild FS (p = 0.002. YKL-40 levels (t value: 3.48; p = 0.001 and APRI score (t value: 4.57, p < 0.001 were found as independent associated with FS in non-uremic patients. However, in adjusted models, only APRI score (t value: 3.98, p = 0.002 was an independent associated with FS in ESRD patients. Conclusion: In non-uremic cHepC patients, YKL-40 levels and APRI score may be valuable markers of FS. In ESRD patients, there is not sufficient data for prediction of HAI and FS. In these patients, APRI score may provide better information.

Lake sediment records of Quaternary climate change

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Moy, C.

2013-01-01

Lake sediments are excellent archives of climate and environmental change. Lakes typically exhibit high sedimentation rates, contain sedimentary components well-suited for a multi-proxy approach, multiple dating methods can be applied, exhibit a broad geographic distribution, and are relatively accessible for study. Furthermore, a number of geochemical techniques can be applied to recontsruct components of the climate system based on the stable isotope geochemistry of carbonate or organic phases preserved and exposed in lacustrine sedimentary cores. Various stable isotope methods can be applied to lacustrine systems and these are a valuable tool that can be used to monitor physical processes (e.g. evaporation), vegetation dynamics within the watershed (C 3 vs C 4 plant distributions), biologic processes (aquatic productivity), all of which can be driven by a regional climate forcing. (author). 31 refs., 11 figs.

How did Marine Isotope Stage 3 and Last Glacial Maximum climates differ? – Perspectives from equilibrium simulations

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

C. J. Van Meerbeeck

2009-03-01

Full Text Available Dansgaard-Oeschger events occurred frequently during Marine Isotope Stage 3 (MIS3, as opposed to the following MIS2 period, which included the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM. Transient climate model simulations suggest that these abrupt warming events in Greenland and the North Atlantic region are associated with a resumption of the Thermohaline Circulation (THC from a weak state during stadials to a relatively strong state during interstadials. However, those models were run with LGM, rather than MIS3 boundary conditions. To quantify the influence of different boundary conditions on the climates of MIS3 and LGM, we perform two equilibrium climate simulations with the three-dimensional earth system model LOVECLIM, one for stadial, the other for interstadial conditions. We compare them to the LGM state simulated with the same model. Both climate states are globally 2°C warmer than LGM. A striking feature of our MIS3 simulations is the enhanced Northern Hemisphere seasonality, July surface air temperatures being 4°C warmer than in LGM. Also, despite some modification in the location of North Atlantic deep water formation, deep water export to the South Atlantic remains unaffected. To study specifically the effect of orbital forcing, we perform two additional sensitivity experiments spun up from our stadial simulation. The insolation difference between MIS3 and LGM causes half of the 30–60° N July temperature anomaly (+6°C. In a third simulation additional freshwater forcing halts the Atlantic THC, yielding a much colder North Atlantic region (−7°C. Comparing our simulation with proxy data, we find that the MIS3 climate with collapsed THC mimics stadials over the North Atlantic better than both control experiments, which might crudely estimate interstadial climate. These results suggest that freshwater forcing is necessary to return climate from warm interstadials to cold stadials during MIS3. This changes our perspective, making the stadial

Overcoming Barriers: Tailoring Climate Education for Latino and non-Latino Citizen to Impact Decision Making

Science.gov (United States)

Estrada, M.; Boudrias, M. A.; Silva-Send, N. J.; Gershunov, A.; Anders, S.

2013-12-01

Culture has been shown to be an important determinant of Latino/Hispanic American environmental attitudes (Schultz, Unipan, & Gamba, 2000), which might help to explain the underrepresentation of Latinos in the U.S. 'environmental' movement. With shifting U.S. demographics, however, there is increased urgency to understand how Latinos integrate into the community that is concerned and literate about climate change. As part of the Climate Education Partners (CEP) work in San Diego, we investigated how to address this ethnic group disparity. In this paper, we describe a study of how climate change science knowledge relates to Latino and Non-Latino citizen (a) engagement in conservation behaviors and (b) more informed decision-making. Drawing upon previous work on the Tripartite Integration Model of Social Influence (TIMSI) (Estrada et al., 2011), we hypothesized that climate change knowledge that promotes efficacy (i.e., a sense that one can do something) would relate to greater engagement in conservation behaviors and more informed decision-making (both common of community members concerned about climate change). To test this model, 1001 San Diego residence participated in a telephone survey in which the attitudes towards climate change were assessed using '6 Americas' segmentation (Leiserowitz et al., 2011), in addition to climate change science knowledge, efficacy, values, and engagement in weekly and yearly climate change friendly behaviors (e.g., conservation, transportation, community engagement behaviors). Results showed that there were significant differences in the 6 America segmentation distributions, knowledge, efficacy and behavioral engagement with Latinos significantly more concerned than Non-Latinos, and reporting greater knowledge, efficacy and engagement in behaviors. However, data from both groups showed support for the TIMSI theoretical framework, such that efficacy mediated the relationship between climate change knowledge and behavior. Thus, for

Coupling of climate models and ice sheet models by surface mass balance gradients: application to the Greenland Ice Sheet

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

M. M. Helsen

2012-03-01

Full Text Available It is notoriously difficult to couple surface mass balance (SMB results from climate models to the changing geometry of an ice sheet model. This problem is traditionally avoided by using only accumulation from a climate model, and parameterizing the meltwater run-off as a function of temperature, which is often related to surface elevation (H_s. In this study, we propose a new strategy to calculate SMB, to allow a direct adjustment of SMB to a change in ice sheet topography and/or a change in climate forcing. This method is based on elevational gradients in the SMB field as computed by a regional climate model. Separate linear relations are derived for ablation and accumulation, using pairs of H_s and SMB within a minimum search radius. The continuously adjusting SMB forcing is consistent with climate model forcing fields, also for initially non-glaciated areas in the peripheral areas of an ice sheet. When applied to an asynchronous coupled ice sheet – climate model setup, this method circumvents traditional temperature lapse rate assumptions. Here we apply it to the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS. Experiments using both steady-state forcing and glacial-interglacial forcing result in realistic ice sheet reconstructions.

Automatic Registration Method for Fusion of ZY-1-02C Satellite Images

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Qi Chen

2013-12-01

Full Text Available Automatic image registration (AIR has been widely studied in the fields of medical imaging, computer vision, and remote sensing. In various cases, such as image fusion, high registration accuracy should be achieved to meet application requirements. For satellite images, the large image size and unstable positioning accuracy resulting from the limited manufacturing technology of charge-coupled device, focal plane distortion, and unrecorded spacecraft jitter lead to difficulty in obtaining agreeable corresponding points for registration using only area-based matching or feature-based matching. In this situation, a coarse-to-fine matching strategy integrating two types of algorithms is proven feasible and effective. In this paper, an AIR method for application to the fusion of ZY-1-02C satellite imagery is proposed. First, the images are geometrically corrected. Coarse matching, based on scale invariant feature transform, is performed for the subsampled corrected images, and a rough global estimation is made with the matching results. Harris feature points are then extracted, and the coordinates of the corresponding points are calculated according to the global estimation results. Precise matching is conducted, based on normalized cross correlation and least squares matching. As complex image distortion cannot be precisely estimated, a local estimation using the structure of triangulated irregular network is applied to eliminate the false matches. Finally, image resampling is conducted, based on local affine transformation, to achieve high-precision registration. Experiments with ZY-1-02C datasets demonstrate that the accuracy of the proposed method meets the requirements of fusion application, and its efficiency is also suitable for the commercial operation of the automatic satellite data process system.

Missing in Action: Where Are the Air Force’s Geographic Combatant Commanders

Science.gov (United States)

2011-06-01

would usher in a more Kantian world order.19 In 1993, Charles Kegley implied that the fall of the iron curtain was a “potent catalyst” pushing the...the values point to unchanging characteristics of the profession of arms.7 The values also help Air Force leadership determine the ethical climate...follow ethical practices in the acquisitions field. During the same period, Air Force General Gregory Martin was nominated to become the first non

Dynamic tunneling force microscopy for characterizing electronic trap states in non-conductive surfaces

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Wang, R.; Williams, C. C., E-mail: clayton@physics.utah.edu [Department of Physics and Astronomy, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, Utah 84112 (United States)

2015-09-15

Dynamic tunneling force microscopy (DTFM) is a scanning probe technique for real space mapping and characterization of individual electronic trap states in non-conductive films with atomic scale spatial resolution. The method is based upon the quantum mechanical tunneling of a single electron back and forth between a metallic atomic force microscopy tip and individual trap states in completely non-conducting surface. This single electron shuttling is measured by detecting the electrostatic force induced on the probe tip at the shuttling frequency. In this paper, the physical basis for the DTFM method is unfolded through a physical model and a derivation of the dynamic tunneling signal as a function of several experimental parameters is shown. Experimental data are compared with the theoretical simulations, showing quantitative consistency and verifying the physical model used. The experimental system is described and representative imaging results are shown.

An investigation of safety climate in OHSAS 18001-certified and non-certified organizations.

Science.gov (United States)

Ghahramani, Abolfazl

2016-09-01

Many organizations worldwide have implemented Occupational Health and Safety Assessment Series (OHSAS) 18001 in their premises because of the assumed positive effects of this standard on safety. Few studies have analyzed the effect of the safety climate in OHSAS 18001-certified organizations. This case-control study used a new safety climate questionnaire to evaluate three OHSAS 18001-certified and three non-certified manufacturing companies in Iran. Hierarchical regression indicated that the safety climate was influenced by OHSAS implementation and by safety training. Employees who received safety training had better perceptions of the safety climate and its dimensions than other respondents within the certified companies. This study found that the implementation of OHSAS 18001 does not guarantee improvement of the safety climate. This study also emphasizes the need for high-quality safety training for employees of the certified companies to improve the safety climate.

Nonlinear force propagation, anisotropic stiffening and non-affine relaxation in a model cytoskeleton

Science.gov (United States)

Mizuno, Daisuke; Head, David; Ikebe, Emi; Nakamasu, Akiko; Kinoshita, Suguru; Peijuan, Zhang; Ando, Shoji

2013-03-01

Forces are generated heterogeneously in living cells and transmitted through cytoskeletal networks that respond highly non-linearly. Here, we carry out high-bandwidth passive microrheology on vimentin networks reconstituted in vitro, and observe the nonlinear mechanical response due to forces propagating from a local source applied by an optical tweezer. Since the applied force is constant, the gel becomes equilibrated and the fluctuation-dissipation theorem can be employed to deduce the viscoelasticity of the local environment from the thermal fluctuations of colloidal probes. Our experiments unequivocally demonstrate the anisotropic stiffening of the cytoskeletal network behind the applied force, with greater stiffening in the parallel direction. Quantitative agreement with an affine continuum model is obtained, but only for the response at certain frequency ~ 10-1000 Hz which separates the high-frequency power law and low-frequency elastic behavior of the network. We argue that the failure of the model at lower frequencies is due to the presence of non-affinity, and observe that zero-frequency changes in particle separation can be fitted when an independently-measured, empirical nonaffinity factor is applied.

Ocean currents modify the coupling between climate change and biogeographical shifts.

Science.gov (United States)

García Molinos, J; Burrows, M T; Poloczanska, E S

2017-05-02

Biogeographical shifts are a ubiquitous global response to climate change. However, observed shifts across taxa and geographical locations are highly variable and only partially attributable to climatic conditions. Such variable outcomes result from the interaction between local climatic changes and other abiotic and biotic factors operating across species ranges. Among them, external directional forces such as ocean and air currents influence the dispersal of nearly all marine and many terrestrial organisms. Here, using a global meta-dataset of observed range shifts of marine species, we show that incorporating directional agreement between flow and climate significantly increases the proportion of explained variance. We propose a simple metric that measures the degrees of directional agreement of ocean (or air) currents with thermal gradients and considers the effects of directional forces in predictions of climate-driven range shifts. Ocean flows are found to both facilitate and hinder shifts depending on their directional agreement with spatial gradients of temperature. Further, effects are shaped by the locations of shifts in the range (trailing, leading or centroid) and taxonomic identity of species. These results support the global effects of climatic changes on distribution shifts and stress the importance of framing climate expectations in reference to other non-climatic interacting factors.

Reconstructing past climate using a multi-specific 13C-approach

Science.gov (United States)

Ferrio, Juan Pedro; Aguilera, Mónica; Voltas, Jordi

2010-05-01

Carbon isotope composition (δ13C) in tree-rings has become routinely used in palaeoclimatic research for the assessment of changes in water availability in seasonally dry climates. Long tree-ring chronologies, however, are relatively scarce, whereas the original climate signal of wood δ13C is usually well preserved in fossil charcoal [1, 4] Accordingly, charcoal δ13C records are an alternative to classic dendroclimatology to characterize past changes in water availability (e.g. precipitation). In this work, we explore the potential for palaeoenvironmental research of two co-occuring Mediterranean species with contrasting strategies to cope with drought [2]: Aleppo pine (Pinus halepensis Mill.) and holm oak (Quercus ilex L.). We hypothesize that the differential sensitivity of pine and oak to climate variables can be exploited to refine palaeoclimate reconstructions based on δ13C in wood or charcoal. For this purpose, we put together published tree-core-δ13C data from 40 sites across Spain [2, 3] and new δ13C data from 15 sites where both species co-existed in mixed stands. The sites were selected to represent the range of variation in thermal and precipitation regimes for these species, while avoiding any correlation between precipitation and temperature across sites. Five dominant or codominant trees were selected per site, and microcores including the most recently formed tree rings were obtained with a Trephor tool [5]. Fragments were oven-dried at 60 ° C for 48 h and milled separately to a fine powder using a ball mill (Retsch MM301, Haan, Germany) for δ13C analysis. Current meteorological data (monthly estimates of air mean temperature (minimum, mean and maximum), precipitation and solar radiation) was obtained from the Digital Climatic Atlas of the Iberian Peninsula (http://opengis.uab.es/wms/iberia/index.htm) (spatial resolution of 200 m). A family of models (either linear or exponential) best predicting monthly and annual precipitation from δ13C

Magnetic properties and tunable magneto-caloric effect in La0.8Ce0.2Fe11.5-xCoxSi1.5C0.2 (x = 0.3, 0.5, and 0.7) compounds

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Wu, Qiming; Wang, Xiangjie; Ding, Zan; Li, Lingwei

2018-05-01

The magnetic and magneto-caloric properties in the ternary elementals doped La0.8Ce0.2Fe11.5-xCoxSi1.5C0.2 (x = 0.3, 0.5, and 0.7) compounds were studied. With the increases of Co content x, the Curie temperature TC increases and the thermal hysteresis decreases. All the compounds undergo a second-order magnetic phase transition and exhibit a considerable reversible tunable magneto-caloric effect. The values of maximum magnetic entropy change (-ΔSMmax) and the Relative Cooling Power (RCP) are kept at same high level with different Co content. Under a magnetic field change of 0-5 T, the values of -ΔSMmax for La0.8Ce0.2Fe11.5-xCoxSi1.5C0.2 are 10.5, 10.7, and 9.8 J/kg K for x = 0.3, 0.5, and 0.7, respectively. The corresponding values of RCP are 267.1, 289.9, and 290.2 J/kg.

76 FR 3617 - U.S. Air Force Academy Board of Visitors Notice of Meeting

Science.gov (United States)

2011-01-20

...: Pursuant to Section 9355, Title 10, United States Code (U.S.C.), the United States Air Force Academy (USAFA..., social climate, curriculum, instruction, infrastructure, fiscal affairs, academic methods, and other... CODE 5001-10-P ...

40 CFR 190.02 - Definitions.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-07-01

... materials from -the cycle. (c) General environment means the total terrestrial, atmospheric and aquatic... of the public means any individual that can receive a radiation dose in the general environment... 40 Protection of Environment 24 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Definitions. 190.02 Section 190.02...

Bounding the Role of Black Carbon in the Climate System: A Scientific Assessment

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Bond, Tami C.; Doherty, Sarah J.; Fahey, D. W.; Forster, Piers; Berntsen, T.; DeAngelo, B. J.; Flanner, M. G.; Ghan, Steven J.; Karcher, B.; Koch, Dorothy; Kinne, Stefan; Kondo, Yutaka; Quinn, P. K.; Sarofim, Marcus; Schultz, Martin; Schulz, M.; Venkataraman, C.; Zhang, Hua; Zhang, Shiqiu; Bellouin, N.; Guttikunda, S. K.; Hopke, P. K.; Jacobson, M. Z.; Kaiser, J. W.; Klimont, Z.; Lohmann, U.; Schwarz, Joshua P.; Shindell, Drew; Storelvmo, Trude; Warren, Stephen G.; Zender, C. S.

2013-06-06

most important individual climate-forcing agent in the industrial era, following carbon dioxide. Sources that emit black carbon also emit other short- lived species that may either cool or warm climate. Climate forcings from co-emitted species are estimated and used in the framework described herein. When the principal effects of co- emissions, including cooling agents such as sulfur dioxide, are included in net forcing, energy-related sources (fossil-fuel and biofuel) have a net climate forcing of +0.004 (-0.62 to +0.57) W m-2 during the first year after emission. For a few of these sources, such as diesel engines and possibly residential biofuels, warming is strong enough that eliminating all emissions from these sources would reduce net climate forcing (i.e., produce cooling). When open burning emissions, which emit high levels of organic matter, are included in the total, the best estimate of net industrial-era climate forcing by all black- carbon-rich sources becomes slightly negative (-0.08 W m-2 with 90% uncertainty bounds of -1.23 to +0.81 W m-2). The uncertainties in net climate forcing from black-carbon-rich sources are substantial, largely due to lack of knowledge about cloud interactions with both black carbon and co-emitted organic carbon. In prioritizing potential black-carbon mitigation actions, non-science factors, such as technical feasibility, costs, policy design, and implementation feasibility play important roles. The major sources of black carbon are presently in different stages with regard to the feasibility for near-term mitigation. This assessment, by evaluating the large number and complexity of the associated physical and radiative processes in black-carbon climate forcing, sets a baseline from which to improve future climate forcing estimates.

Simulating the Impacts of Tree, C3, and C4 Plant Functional Types on the Future Climate of West Africa

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Christiana Funmilola Olusegun

2018-05-01

Full Text Available This study investigates the future climatic impacts of different percentages of trees/shrubs, C4 and C3 plant functional types (PFTs over the West Africa region. The ratio of co-existence among the different PFTs was done as a representation of agri-silviculture practices over the region. Nine sensitivity experiments of different percentages of trees/shrubs, and C4 and C3 PFTs were carried out with a regional climate model (RegCM4 driven by Global Climate Model (HADGEM2-ES outputs. These experiments were carried out along the Guinea Savana zone of West Africa using both prescribed and dynamic vegetation options of the model. The model simulated the seasonal evolution of precipitation and temperature fields quite well, with correlations greater than 0.8, but exhibited cold and wet biases of about 1–2 °C and 1–4 mm/day, respectively. Widespread warming (1–3 °C and drying (1–2 mm/day is projected in the near future across most parts of West Africa all year round. The West African future climate change associated with the different percentages of trees/shrubs, and C4 and C3 PFTs varied with the vegetation state (prescribed or dynamic and model domain sizes. The prescribed vegetation experiments induced cooling of about 0.5–2 °C in most areas along the designated agri-silviculture zone, except Liberia and Sierra Leone. Similarly, enhanced precipitation occurred over most parts of Ghana and coastal parts of Nigeria (0.5–3 mm/day. On the other hand, the dynamic vegetation option did not exhibit pronounced changes in temperature and precipitation, except with a larger domain size. This study suggests the implementation of agri-silviculture as a mitigation and adaptation land-use practice across West Africa if drought-tolerant crops and the deciduous trees are adopted.

Levitation force of melt-textured YBCO superconductors under non-quasi-static situation

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Zhao, Z. M.; Xu, J. M.; Yuan, X. Y.; Zhang, C. P.

2018-06-01

The superconducting levitation force of a simple superconductor-magnet system under non-quasi-static situation is investigated experimentally. Two yttrium barium copper oxide (YBCO) samples with different performances are chosen from two small batches of samples prepared by the top-seeded melt-textured growth process. The residual carbon content of the precursor powders of the two batches is different due to different heat treatment processes. During the experimental process for measuring the levitation force, the value of the relative speed between the YBCO sample and the permanent magnet is higher than that in conventional studies. The variation characteristics of the superconducting levitation force are analyzed and a crossing phenomenon in the force-displacement hysteresis curves is observed. The results indicate that the superconducting levitation force is different due to the different residual carbon contents. As residual carbon contents reduce, the crossing phenomenon is more obvious accordingly.

Differential climate impacts for policy-relevant limits to global warming: the case of 1.5 °C and 2 °C

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Schleussner, Carl-Friedrich; Lissner, Tabea K.; Fischer, Erich M.; Wohland, Jan; Perrette, Mahé; Golly, Antonius; Rogelj, Joeri; Childers, Katelin; Schewe, Jacob; Frieler, Katja; Mengel, Matthias; Hare, William; Schaeffer, Michiel

2016-04-01

Robust appraisals of climate impacts at different levels of global-mean temperature increase are vital to guide assessments of dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system. The 2015 Paris Agreement includes a two-headed temperature goal: "holding the increase in the global average temperature to well below 2 °C above pre-industrial levels and pursuing efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5 °C". Despite the prominence of these two temperature limits, a comprehensive overview of the differences in climate impacts at these levels is still missing. Here we provide an assessment of key impacts of climate change at warming levels of 1.5 °C and 2 °C, including extreme weather events, water availability, agricultural yields, sea-level rise and risk of coral reef loss. Our results reveal substantial differences in impacts between a 1.5 °C and 2 °C warming that are highly relevant for the assessment of dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system. For heat-related extremes, the additional 0.5 °C increase in global-mean temperature marks the difference between events at the upper limit of present-day natural variability and a new climate regime, particularly in tropical regions. Similarly, this warming difference is likely to be decisive for the future of tropical coral reefs. In a scenario with an end-of-century warming of 2 °C, virtually all tropical coral reefs are projected to be at risk of severe degradation due to temperature-induced bleaching from 2050 onwards. This fraction is reduced to about 90 % in 2050 and projected to decline to 70 % by 2100 for a 1.5 °C scenario. Analyses of precipitation-related impacts reveal distinct regional differences and hot-spots of change emerge. Regional reduction in median water availability for the Mediterranean is found to nearly double from 9 % to 17 % between 1.5 °C and 2 °C, and the projected lengthening of regional dry spells increases from 7 to 11 %. Projections for

Quantifying immediate radiative forcing by black carbon and organic matter with the Specific Forcing Pulse

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T. C. Bond

2011-02-01

12 additional models. We outline a framework for combining a large number of simple models with a smaller number of enhanced models that have greater complexity. Adjustments for black carbon internal mixing and for regional variability are discussed. Emitting regions with more deep convection have greater model diversity. Our best estimate of global-mean SFP is +1.03 ± 0.52 GJ g⁻¹ for direct atmosphere forcing of black carbon, +1.15 ± 0.53 GJ g⁻¹ for black carbon including direct and cryosphere forcing, and −0.064 (−0.02, −0.13 GJ g⁻¹ for organic matter. These values depend on the region and timing of emission. The lowest OM:BC mass ratio required to produce a neutral effect on top-of-atmosphere direct forcing is 15:1 for any region. Any lower ratio results in positive direct forcing. However, important processes, particularly cloud changes that tend toward cooling, have not been included here.

Global-average SFP for energy-related emissions can be converted to a 100-year GWP of about 740 ± 370 for BC without snow forcing, and 830 ± 440 with snow forcing. 100-year GWP for OM is −46 (−18, −92. Best estimates of atmospheric radiative impact (without snow forcing by black and organic matter are +0.47 ± 0.26 W m⁻² and −0.17 (−0.07, −0.35 W m⁻² for BC and OM, respectively, assuming total emission rates of 7.4 and 45 Tg yr⁻¹. Anthropogenic forcing is +0.40 ± 0.18 W m⁻² and −0.13 (−0.05, −0.25 W m⁻² for BC and OM, respectively, assuming anthropogenic emission rates of 6.3 and 32.6 Tg yr⁻¹. Black carbon forcing is only 18% higher than that given by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, although the value presented here includes enhanced absorption due to internal mixing.