Neural Network-Based Resistance Spot Welding Control and Quality Prediction

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Allen, J.D., Jr.; Ivezic, N.D.; Zacharia, T.

1999-07-10

This paper describes the development and evaluation of neural network-based systems for industrial resistance spot welding process control and weld quality assessment. The developed systems utilize recurrent neural networks for process control and both recurrent networks and static networks for quality prediction. The first section describes a system capable of both welding process control and real-time weld quality assessment, The second describes the development and evaluation of a static neural network-based weld quality assessment system that relied on experimental design to limit the influence of environmental variability. Relevant data analysis methods are also discussed. The weld classifier resulting from the analysis successfldly balances predictive power and simplicity of interpretation. The results presented for both systems demonstrate clearly that neural networks can be employed to address two significant problems common to the resistance spot welding industry, control of the process itself, and non-destructive determination of resulting weld quality.

A network security situation prediction model based on wavelet neural network with optimized parameters

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Haibo Zhang

2016-08-01

Full Text Available The security incidents ion networks are sudden and uncertain, it is very hard to precisely predict the network security situation by traditional methods. In order to improve the prediction accuracy of the network security situation, we build a network security situation prediction model based on Wavelet Neural Network (WNN with optimized parameters by the Improved Niche Genetic Algorithm (INGA. The proposed model adopts WNN which has strong nonlinear ability and fault-tolerance performance. Also, the parameters for WNN are optimized through the adaptive genetic algorithm (GA so that WNN searches more effectively. Considering the problem that the adaptive GA converges slowly and easily turns to the premature problem, we introduce a novel niche technology with a dynamic fuzzy clustering and elimination mechanism to solve the premature convergence of the GA. Our final simulation results show that the proposed INGA-WNN prediction model is more reliable and effective, and it achieves faster convergence-speed and higher prediction accuracy than the Genetic Algorithm-Wavelet Neural Network (GA-WNN, Genetic Algorithm-Back Propagation Neural Network (GA-BPNN and WNN.

Neural network for prediction of superheater fireside corrosion

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Makkonen, P [Foster Wheeler Energia Oy, Karhula R and D Center, Karhula (Finland)

1999-12-31

Superheater corrosion causes vast annual losses to the power companies. If the corrosion could be reliably predicted, new power plants could be designed accordingly, and knowledge of fuel selection and determination of process conditions could be utilized to minimize superheater corrosion. If relations between inputs and the output are poorly known, conventional models depending on corrosion theories will fail. A prediction model based on a neural network is capable of learning from errors and improving its performance as the amount of data increases. The neural network developed during this study predicts superheater corrosion with 80 % accuracy at early stage of the project. (orig.) 10 refs.

Neural network for prediction of superheater fireside corrosion

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Makkonen, P. [Foster Wheeler Energia Oy, Karhula R and D Center, Karhula (Finland)

1998-12-31

Superheater corrosion causes vast annual losses to the power companies. If the corrosion could be reliably predicted, new power plants could be designed accordingly, and knowledge of fuel selection and determination of process conditions could be utilized to minimize superheater corrosion. If relations between inputs and the output are poorly known, conventional models depending on corrosion theories will fail. A prediction model based on a neural network is capable of learning from errors and improving its performance as the amount of data increases. The neural network developed during this study predicts superheater corrosion with 80 % accuracy at early stage of the project. (orig.) 10 refs.

Predicting physical time series using dynamic ridge polynomial neural networks.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Dhiya Al-Jumeily

Full Text Available Forecasting naturally occurring phenomena is a common problem in many domains of science, and this has been addressed and investigated by many scientists. The importance of time series prediction stems from the fact that it has wide range of applications, including control systems, engineering processes, environmental systems and economics. From the knowledge of some aspects of the previous behaviour of the system, the aim of the prediction process is to determine or predict its future behaviour. In this paper, we consider a novel application of a higher order polynomial neural network architecture called Dynamic Ridge Polynomial Neural Network that combines the properties of higher order and recurrent neural networks for the prediction of physical time series. In this study, four types of signals have been used, which are; The Lorenz attractor, mean value of the AE index, sunspot number, and heat wave temperature. The simulation results showed good improvements in terms of the signal to noise ratio in comparison to a number of higher order and feedforward neural networks in comparison to the benchmarked techniques.

Optimal neural networks for protein-structure prediction

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Head-Gordon, T.; Stillinger, F.H.

1993-01-01

The successful application of neural-network algorithms for prediction of protein structure is stymied by three problem areas: the sparsity of the database of known protein structures, poorly devised network architectures which make the input-output mapping opaque, and a global optimization problem in the multiple-minima space of the network variables. We present a simplified polypeptide model residing in two dimensions with only two amino-acid types, A and B, which allows the determination of the global energy structure for all possible sequences of pentamer, hexamer, and heptamer lengths. This model simplicity allows us to compile a complete structural database and to devise neural networks that reproduce the tertiary structure of all sequences with absolute accuracy and with the smallest number of network variables. These optimal networks reveal that the three problem areas are convoluted, but that thoughtful network designs can actually deconvolute these detrimental traits to provide network algorithms that genuinely impact on the ability of the network to generalize or learn the desired mappings. Furthermore, the two-dimensional polypeptide model shows sufficient chemical complexity so that transfer of neural-network technology to more realistic three-dimensional proteins is evident

Prediction of two-phase mixture density using artificial neural networks

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lombardi, C.; Mazzola, A.

1997-01-01

In nuclear power plants, the density of boiling mixtures has a significant relevance due to its influence on the neutronic balance, the power distribution and the reactor dynamics. Since the determination of the two-phase mixture density on a purely analytical basis is in fact impractical in many situations of interest, heuristic relationships have been developed based on the parameters describing the two-phase system. However, the best or even a good structure for the correlation cannot be determined in advance, also considering that it is usually desired to represent the experimental data with the most compact equation. A possible alternative to empirical correlations is the use of artificial neural networks, which allow one to model complex systems without requiring the explicit formulation of the relationships existing among the variables. In this work, the neural network methodology was applied to predict the density data of two-phase mixtures up-flowing in adiabatic channels under different experimental conditions. The trained network predicts the density data with a root-mean-square error of 5.33%, being ∼ 93% of the data points predicted within 10%. When compared with those of two conventional well-proven correlations, i.e. the Zuber-Findlay and the CISE correlations, the neural network performances are significantly better. In spite of the good accuracy of the neural network predictions, the 'black-box' characteristic of the neural model does not allow an easy physical interpretation of the knowledge integrated in the network weights. Therefore, the neural network methodology has the advantage of not requiring a formal correlation structure and of giving very accurate results, but at the expense of a loss of model transparency. (author)

Wave transmission prediction of multilayer floating breakwater using neural network

Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

Mandal, S.; Patil, S.G.; Hegde, A.V.

In the present study, an artificial neural network method has been applied for wave transmission prediction of multilayer floating breakwater. Two neural network models are constructed based on the parameters which influence the wave transmission...

Using neural networks for prediction of nuclear parameters

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Pereira Filho, Leonidas; Souto, Kelling Cabral, E-mail: leonidasmilenium@hotmail.com, E-mail: kcsouto@bol.com.br [Instituto Federal de Educacao, Ciencia e Tecnologia do Rio de Janeiro (IFRJ), Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil); Machado, Marcelo Dornellas, E-mail: dornemd@eletronuclear.gov.br [Eletrobras Termonuclear S.A. (GCN.T/ELETRONUCLEAR), Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil). Gerencia de Combustivel Nuclear

2013-07-01

Dating from 1943, the earliest work on artificial neural networks (ANN), when Warren Mc Cullock and Walter Pitts developed a study on the behavior of the biological neuron, with the goal of creating a mathematical model. Some other work was done until after the 80 witnessed an explosion of interest in ANNs, mainly due to advances in technology, especially microelectronics. Because ANNs are able to solve many problems such as approximation, classification, categorization, prediction and others, they have numerous applications in various areas, including nuclear. Nodal method is adopted as a tool for analyzing core parameters such as boron concentration and pin power peaks for pressurized water reactors. However, this method is extremely slow when it is necessary to perform various core evaluations, for example core reloading optimization. To overcome this difficulty, in this paper a model of Multi-layer Perceptron (MLP) artificial neural network type backpropagation will be trained to predict these values. The main objective of this work is the development of Multi-layer Perceptron (MLP) artificial neural network capable to predict, in very short time, with good accuracy, two important parameters used in the core reloading problem - Boron Concentration and Power Peaking Factor. For the training of the neural networks are provided loading patterns and nuclear data used in cycle 19 of Angra 1 nuclear power plant. Three models of networks are constructed using the same input data and providing the following outputs: 1- Boron Concentration and Power Peaking Factor, 2 - Boron Concentration and 3 - Power Peaking Factor. (author)

Using neural networks for prediction of nuclear parameters

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pereira Filho, Leonidas; Souto, Kelling Cabral; Machado, Marcelo Dornellas

2013-01-01

Dating from 1943, the earliest work on artificial neural networks (ANN), when Warren Mc Cullock and Walter Pitts developed a study on the behavior of the biological neuron, with the goal of creating a mathematical model. Some other work was done until after the 80 witnessed an explosion of interest in ANNs, mainly due to advances in technology, especially microelectronics. Because ANNs are able to solve many problems such as approximation, classification, categorization, prediction and others, they have numerous applications in various areas, including nuclear. Nodal method is adopted as a tool for analyzing core parameters such as boron concentration and pin power peaks for pressurized water reactors. However, this method is extremely slow when it is necessary to perform various core evaluations, for example core reloading optimization. To overcome this difficulty, in this paper a model of Multi-layer Perceptron (MLP) artificial neural network type backpropagation will be trained to predict these values. The main objective of this work is the development of Multi-layer Perceptron (MLP) artificial neural network capable to predict, in very short time, with good accuracy, two important parameters used in the core reloading problem - Boron Concentration and Power Peaking Factor. For the training of the neural networks are provided loading patterns and nuclear data used in cycle 19 of Angra 1 nuclear power plant. Three models of networks are constructed using the same input data and providing the following outputs: 1- Boron Concentration and Power Peaking Factor, 2 - Boron Concentration and 3 - Power Peaking Factor. (author)

System Identification, Prediction, Simulation and Control with Neural Networks

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Sørensen, O.

1997-01-01

a Gauss-Newton search direction is applied. 3) Amongst numerous model types, often met in control applications, only the Non-linear ARMAX (NARMAX) model, representing input/output description, is examined. A simulated example confirms that a neural network has the potential to perform excellent System......The intention of this paper is to make a systematic examination of the possibilities of applying neural networks in those technical areas, which are familiar to a control engineer. In other words, the potential of neural networks in control applications is given higher priority than a detailed...... study of the networks themselves. With this end in view the following restrictions have been made: 1) Amongst numerous neural network structures, only the Multi Layer Perceptron (a feed-forward network) is applied. 2) Amongst numerous training algorithms, only the Recursive Prediction Error Method using...

Application of neural networks to signal prediction in nuclear power plant

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wan Joo Kim; Soon Heung Chang; Byung Ho Lee

1993-01-01

This paper describes the feasibility study of an artificial neural network for signal prediction. The purpose of signal prediction is to estimate the value of undetected next time step signal. As the prediction method, based on the idea of auto regression, a few previous signals are inputs to the artificial neural network and the signal value of next time step is estimated with the outputs of the network. The artificial neural network can be applied to the nonlinear system and answers in short time. The training algorithm is a modified backpropagation model, which can effectively reduce the training time. The target signal of the simulation is the steam generator water level, which is one of the important parameters in nuclear power plants. The simulation result shows that the predicted value follows the real trend well

Artificial Neural Network Model for Predicting Compressive

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Salim T. Yousif

2013-05-01

Full Text Available   Compressive strength of concrete is a commonly used criterion in evaluating concrete. Although testing of the compressive strength of concrete specimens is done routinely, it is performed on the 28th day after concrete placement. Therefore, strength estimation of concrete at early time is highly desirable. This study presents the effort in applying neural network-based system identification techniques to predict the compressive strength of concrete based on concrete mix proportions, maximum aggregate size (MAS, and slump of fresh concrete. Back-propagation neural networks model is successively developed, trained, and tested using actual data sets of concrete mix proportions gathered from literature.    The test of the model by un-used data within the range of input parameters shows that the maximum absolute error for model is about 20% and 88% of the output results has absolute errors less than 10%. The parametric study shows that water/cement ratio (w/c is the most significant factor  affecting the output of the model.     The results showed that neural networks has strong potential as a feasible tool for predicting compressive strength of concrete.

Prediction of metal corrosion using feed-forward neural networks

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mahjani, M.G.; Jalili, S.; Jafarian, M.; Jaberi, A.

2004-01-01

The reliable prediction of corrosion behavior for the effective control of corrosion is a fundamental requirement. Since real world corrosion never seems to involve quite the same conditions that have previously been tested, using corrosion literature does not provide the necessary answers. In order to provide a methodology for predicting corrosion in real and complex situations, artificial neural networks can be utilized. Feed-forward artificial neural network (FFANN) is an information-processing paradigm inspired by the way the densely interconnected, parallel structure of the human brain process information.The aim of the present work is to predict corrosion behavior in critical conditions, such as industrial applications, based on some laboratory experimental data. Electrochemical behavior of stainless steel in different conditions were studied, using polarization technique and Tafel curves. Back-propagation neural networks models were developed to predict the corrosion behavior. The trained networks result in predicted value in good comparison to the experimental data. They have generally been claimed to be successful in modeling the corrosion behavior. The results are presented in two tables. Table 1 gives corrosion behavior of stainless-steel as a function of pH and CuSO 4 concentration and table 2 gives corrosion behavior of stainless - steel as a function of electrode surface area and CuSO 4 concentration. (authors)

Based on BP Neural Network Stock Prediction

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, Xiangwei; Ma, Xin

2012-01-01

The stock market has a high profit and high risk features, on the stock market analysis and prediction research has been paid attention to by people. Stock price trend is a complex nonlinear function, so the price has certain predictability. This article mainly with improved BP neural network (BPNN) to set up the stock market prediction model, and…

Separation prediction in two dimensional boundary layer flows using artificial neural networks

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sabetghadam, F.; Ghomi, H.A.

2003-01-01

In this article, the ability of artificial neural networks in prediction of separation in steady two dimensional boundary layer flows is studied. Data for network training is extracted from numerical solution of an ODE obtained from Von Karman integral equation with approximate one parameter Pohlhousen velocity profile. As an appropriate neural network, a two layer radial basis generalized regression artificial neural network is used. The results shows good agreements between the overall behavior of the flow fields predicted by the artificial neural network and the actual flow fields for some cases. The method easily can be extended to unsteady separation and turbulent as well as compressible boundary layer flows. (author)

Predicting recurrent aphthous ulceration using genetic algorithms-optimized neural networks

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Najla S Dar-Odeh

2010-05-01

Full Text Available Najla S Dar-Odeh1, Othman M Alsmadi2, Faris Bakri3, Zaer Abu-Hammour2, Asem A Shehabi3, Mahmoud K Al-Omiri1, Shatha M K Abu-Hammad4, Hamzeh Al-Mashni4, Mohammad B Saeed4, Wael Muqbil4, Osama A Abu-Hammad1 1Faculty of Dentistry, 2Faculty of Engineering and Technology, 3Faculty of Medicine, University of Jordan, Amman, Jordan; 4Dental Department, University of Jordan Hospital, Amman, JordanObjective: To construct and optimize a neural network that is capable of predicting the occurrence of recurrent aphthous ulceration (RAU based on a set of appropriate input data.Participants and methods: Artificial neural networks (ANN software employing genetic algorithms to optimize the architecture neural networks was used. Input and output data of 86 participants (predisposing factors and status of the participants with regards to recurrent aphthous ulceration were used to construct and train the neural networks. The optimized neural networks were then tested using untrained data of a further 10 participants.Results: The optimized neural network, which produced the most accurate predictions for the presence or absence of recurrent aphthous ulceration was found to employ: gender, hematological (with or without ferritin and mycological data of the participants, frequency of tooth brushing, and consumption of vegetables and fruits.Conclusions: Factors appearing to be related to recurrent aphthous ulceration and appropriate for use as input data to construct ANNs that predict recurrent aphthous ulceration were found to include the following: gender, hemoglobin, serum vitamin B12, serum ferritin, red cell folate, salivary candidal colony count, frequency of tooth brushing, and the number of fruits or vegetables consumed daily.Keywords: artifical neural networks, recurrent, aphthous ulceration, ulcer

Prediction of tides using back-propagation neural networks

Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

Mandal, S.

Prediction of tides is very much essential for human activities and to reduce the construction cost in marine environment. This paper presents an application of the artificial neural network with back-propagation procedures for accurate prediction...

AIR POLLUITON INDEX PREDICTION USING MULTIPLE NEURAL NETWORKS

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Zainal Ahmad

2017-05-01

Full Text Available Air quality monitoring and forecasting tools are necessary for the purpose of taking precautionary measures against air pollution, such as reducing the effect of a predicted air pollution peak on the surrounding population and ecosystem. In this study a single Feed-forward Artificial Neural Network (FANN is shown to be able to predict the Air Pollution Index (API with a Mean Squared Error (MSE and coefficient determination, R2, of 0.1856 and 0.7950 respectively. However, due to the non-robust nature of single FANN, a selective combination of Multiple Neural Networks (MNN is introduced using backward elimination and a forward selection method. The results show that both selective combination methods can improve the robustness and performance of the API prediction with the MSE and R2 of 0.1614 and 0.8210 respectively. This clearly shows that it is possible to reduce the number of networks combined in MNN for API prediction, without losses of any information in terms of the performance of the final API prediction model.

Implementation of neural network based non-linear predictive

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Sørensen, Paul Haase; Nørgård, Peter Magnus; Ravn, Ole

1998-01-01

The paper describes a control method for non-linear systems based on generalized predictive control. Generalized predictive control (GPC) was developed to control linear systems including open loop unstable and non-minimum phase systems, but has also been proposed extended for the control of non......-linear systems. GPC is model-based and in this paper we propose the use of a neural network for the modeling of the system. Based on the neural network model a controller with extended control horizon is developed and the implementation issues are discussed, with particular emphasis on an efficient Quasi......-Newton optimization algorithm. The performance is demonstrated on a pneumatic servo system....

Prediction of littoral drift with artificial neural networks

Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

Singh, A.K.; Deo, M.C.; SanilKumar, V.

of the rate of sand drift has still remained as a problem. The current study addresses this issue through the use of artificial neural networks (ANN). Feed forward networks were developed to predict the sand drift from a variety of causative variables...

Prediction of protein hydration sites from sequence by modular neural networks

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Ehrlich, L.; Reczko, M.; Bohr, Henrik

1998-01-01

The hydration properties of a protein are important determinants of its structure and function. Here, modular neural networks are employed to predict ordered hydration sites using protein sequence information. First, secondary structure and solvent accessibility are predicted from sequence with two...... separate neural networks. These predictions are used as input together with protein sequences for networks predicting hydration of residues, backbone atoms and sidechains. These networks are teined with protein crystal structures. The prediction of hydration is improved by adding information on secondary...... structure and solvent accessibility and, using actual values of these properties, redidue hydration can be predicted to 77% accuracy with a Metthews coefficient of 0.43. However, predicted property data with an accuracy of 60-70% result in less than half the improvement in predictive performance observed...

Application of Neural Network Optimized by Mind Evolutionary Computation in Building Energy Prediction

Science.gov (United States)

Song, Chen; Zhong-Cheng, Wu; Hong, Lv

2018-03-01

Building Energy forecasting plays an important role in energy management and plan. Using mind evolutionary algorithm to find the optimal network weights and threshold, to optimize the BP neural network, can overcome the problem of the BP neural network into a local minimum point. The optimized network is used for time series prediction, and the same month forecast, to get two predictive values. Then two kinds of predictive values are put into neural network, to get the final forecast value. The effectiveness of the method was verified by experiment with the energy value of three buildings in Hefei.

A comparison of neural network architectures for the prediction of MRR in EDM

Science.gov (United States)

Jena, A. R.; Das, Raja

2017-11-01

The aim of the research work is to predict the material removal rate of a work-piece in electrical discharge machining (EDM). Here, an effort has been made to predict the material removal rate through back-propagation neural network (BPN) and radial basis function neural network (RBFN) for a work-piece of AISI D2 steel. The input parameters for the architecture are discharge-current (Ip), pulse-duration (Ton), and duty-cycle (τ) taken for consideration to obtained the output for material removal rate of the work-piece. In the architecture, it has been observed that radial basis function neural network is comparatively faster than back-propagation neural network but logically back-propagation neural network results more real value. Therefore BPN may consider as a better process in this architecture for consistent prediction to save time and money for conducting experiments.

Prediction of proteasome cleavage motifs by neural networks

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kesimir, C.; Nussbaum, A.K.; Schild, H.

2002-01-01

physiological conditions. Our algorithm has been trained not only on in vitro data, but also on MHC Class I ligand data, which reflect a combination of immunoproteasome and constitutive proteasome specificity. This feature, together with the use of neural networks, a non-linear classification technique, make...... the prediction of MHC Class I ligand boundaries more accurate: 65% of the cleavage sites and 85% of the non-cleavage sites are correctly determined. Moreover, we show that the neural networks trained on the constitutive proteasome data learns a specificity that differs from that of the networks trained on MHC...

Artificial neural network application for predicting soil distribution coefficient of nickel

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Falamaki, Amin

2013-01-01

The distribution (or partition) coefficient (K d ) is an applicable parameter for modeling contaminant and radionuclide transport as well as risk analysis. Selection of this parameter may cause significant error in predicting the impacts of contaminant migration or site-remediation options. In this regards, various models were presented to predict K d values for different contaminants specially heavy metals and radionuclides. In this study, artificial neural network (ANN) is used to present simplified model for predicting K d of nickel. The main objective is to develop a more accurate model with a minimal number of parameters, which can be determined experimentally or select by review of different studies. In addition, the effects of training as well as the type of the network are considered. The K d values of Ni is strongly dependent on pH of the soil and mathematical relationships were presented between pH and K d of nickel recently. In this study, the same database of these presented models was used to verify that neural network may be more useful tools for predicting of K d . Two different types of ANN, multilayer perceptron and redial basis function, were used to investigate the effect of the network geometry on the results. In addition, each network was trained by 80 and 90% of the data and tested for 20 and 10% of the rest data. Then the results of the networks compared with the results of the mathematical models. Although the networks trained by 80 and 90% of the data the results show that all the networks predict with higher accuracy relative to mathematical models which were derived by 100% of data. More training of a network increases the accuracy of the network. Multilayer perceptron network used in this study predicts better than redial basis function network. - Highlights: ► Simplified models for predicting K d of nickel presented using artificial neural networks. ► Multilayer perceptron and redial basis function used to predict K d of nickel in

Financial Time Series Prediction Using Elman Recurrent Random Neural Networks

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jie Wang

2016-01-01

(ERNN, the empirical results show that the proposed neural network displays the best performance among these neural networks in financial time series forecasting. Further, the empirical research is performed in testing the predictive effects of SSE, TWSE, KOSPI, and Nikkei225 with the established model, and the corresponding statistical comparisons of the above market indices are also exhibited. The experimental results show that this approach gives good performance in predicting the values from the stock market indices.

Neural networks for predicting breeding values and genetic gains

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Gabi Nunes Silva

2014-12-01

Full Text Available Analysis using Artificial Neural Networks has been described as an approach in the decision-making process that, although incipient, has been reported as presenting high potential for use in animal and plant breeding. In this study, we introduce the procedure of using the expanded data set for training the network. Wealso proposed using statistical parameters to estimate the breeding value of genotypes in simulated scenarios, in addition to the mean phenotypic value in a feed-forward back propagation multilayer perceptron network. After evaluating artificial neural network configurations, our results showed its superiority to estimates based on linear models, as well as its applicability in the genetic value prediction process. The results further indicated the good generalization performance of the neural network model in several additional validation experiments.

Application of General Regression Neural Network to the Prediction of LOD Change

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Xiao-Hong; Wang, Qi-Jie; Zhu, Jian-Jun; Zhang, Hao

2012-01-01

Traditional methods for predicting the change in length of day (LOD change) are mainly based on some linear models, such as the least square model and autoregression model, etc. However, the LOD change comprises complicated non-linear factors and the prediction effect of the linear models is always not so ideal. Thus, a kind of non-linear neural network — general regression neural network (GRNN) model is tried to make the prediction of the LOD change and the result is compared with the predicted results obtained by taking advantage of the BP (back propagation) neural network model and other models. The comparison result shows that the application of the GRNN to the prediction of the LOD change is highly effective and feasible.

A neural network to predict symptomatic lung injury

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Munley, M.T.; Lo, J.Y.

1999-01-01

A nonlinear neural network that simultaneously uses pre-radiotherapy (RT) biological and physical data was developed to predict symptomatic lung injury. The input data were pre-RT pulmonary function, three-dimensional treatment plan doses and demographics. The output was a single value between 0 (asymptomatic) and 1 (symptomatic) to predict the likelihood that a particular patient would become symptomatic. The network was trained on data from 97 patients for 400 iterations with the goal to minimize the mean-squared error. Statistical analysis was performed on the resulting network to determine the model's accuracy. Results from the neural network were compared with those given by traditional linear discriminate analysis and the dose-volume histogram reduction (DVHR) scheme of Kutcher. Receiver-operator characteristic (ROC) analysis was performed on the resulting network which had Az=0.833±0.04. (Az is the area under the ROC curve.) Linear discriminate multivariate analysis yielded an Az=0.813±0.06. The DVHR method had Az=0.521±0.08. The network was also used to rank the significance of the input variables. Future studies will be conducted to improve network accuracy and to include functional imaging data. (author)

Neural Network Predictive Control for Vanadium Redox Flow Battery

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Hai-Feng Shen

2013-01-01

Full Text Available The vanadium redox flow battery (VRB is a nonlinear system with unknown dynamics and disturbances. The flowrate of the electrolyte is an important control mechanism in the operation of a VRB system. Too low or too high flowrate is unfavorable for the safety and performance of VRB. This paper presents a neural network predictive control scheme to enhance the overall performance of the battery. A radial basis function (RBF network is employed to approximate the dynamics of the VRB system. The genetic algorithm (GA is used to obtain the optimum initial values of the RBF network parameters. The gradient descent algorithm is used to optimize the objective function of the predictive controller. Compared with the constant flowrate, the simulation results show that the flowrate optimized by neural network predictive controller can increase the power delivered by the battery during the discharge and decrease the power consumed during the charge.

Nonlinear signal processing using neural networks: Prediction and system modelling

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lapedes, A.; Farber, R.

1987-06-01

The backpropagation learning algorithm for neural networks is developed into a formalism for nonlinear signal processing. We illustrate the method by selecting two common topics in signal processing, prediction and system modelling, and show that nonlinear applications can be handled extremely well by using neural networks. The formalism is a natural, nonlinear extension of the linear Least Mean Squares algorithm commonly used in adaptive signal processing. Simulations are presented that document the additional performance achieved by using nonlinear neural networks. First, we demonstrate that the formalism may be used to predict points in a highly chaotic time series with orders of magnitude increase in accuracy over conventional methods including the Linear Predictive Method and the Gabor-Volterra-Weiner Polynomial Method. Deterministic chaos is thought to be involved in many physical situations including the onset of turbulence in fluids, chemical reactions and plasma physics. Secondly, we demonstrate the use of the formalism in nonlinear system modelling by providing a graphic example in which it is clear that the neural network has accurately modelled the nonlinear transfer function. It is interesting to note that the formalism provides explicit, analytic, global, approximations to the nonlinear maps underlying the various time series. Furthermore, the neural net seems to be extremely parsimonious in its requirements for data points from the time series. We show that the neural net is able to perform well because it globally approximates the relevant maps by performing a kind of generalized mode decomposition of the maps. 24 refs., 13 figs.

Efficient and Invariant Convolutional Neural Networks for Dense Prediction

OpenAIRE

Gao, Hongyang; Ji, Shuiwang

2017-01-01

Convolutional neural networks have shown great success on feature extraction from raw input data such as images. Although convolutional neural networks are invariant to translations on the inputs, they are not invariant to other transformations, including rotation and flip. Recent attempts have been made to incorporate more invariance in image recognition applications, but they are not applicable to dense prediction tasks, such as image segmentation. In this paper, we propose a set of methods...

Robust recurrent neural network modeling for software fault detection and correction prediction

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hu, Q.P.; Xie, M.; Ng, S.H.; Levitin, G.

2007-01-01

Software fault detection and correction processes are related although different, and they should be studied together. A practical approach is to apply software reliability growth models to model fault detection, and fault correction process is assumed to be a delayed process. On the other hand, the artificial neural networks model, as a data-driven approach, tries to model these two processes together with no assumptions. Specifically, feedforward backpropagation networks have shown their advantages over analytical models in fault number predictions. In this paper, the following approach is explored. First, recurrent neural networks are applied to model these two processes together. Within this framework, a systematic networks configuration approach is developed with genetic algorithm according to the prediction performance. In order to provide robust predictions, an extra factor characterizing the dispersion of prediction repetitions is incorporated into the performance function. Comparisons with feedforward neural networks and analytical models are developed with respect to a real data set

Parallel protein secondary structure prediction based on neural networks.

Science.gov (United States)

Zhong, Wei; Altun, Gulsah; Tian, Xinmin; Harrison, Robert; Tai, Phang C; Pan, Yi

2004-01-01

Protein secondary structure prediction has a fundamental influence on today's bioinformatics research. In this work, binary and tertiary classifiers of protein secondary structure prediction are implemented on Denoeux belief neural network (DBNN) architecture. Hydrophobicity matrix, orthogonal matrix, BLOSUM62 and PSSM (position specific scoring matrix) are experimented separately as the encoding schemes for DBNN. The experimental results contribute to the design of new encoding schemes. New binary classifier for Helix versus not Helix ( approximately H) for DBNN produces prediction accuracy of 87% when PSSM is used for the input profile. The performance of DBNN binary classifier is comparable to other best prediction methods. The good test results for binary classifiers open a new approach for protein structure prediction with neural networks. Due to the time consuming task of training the neural networks, Pthread and OpenMP are employed to parallelize DBNN in the hyperthreading enabled Intel architecture. Speedup for 16 Pthreads is 4.9 and speedup for 16 OpenMP threads is 4 in the 4 processors shared memory architecture. Both speedup performance of OpenMP and Pthread is superior to that of other research. With the new parallel training algorithm, thousands of amino acids can be processed in reasonable amount of time. Our research also shows that hyperthreading technology for Intel architecture is efficient for parallel biological algorithms.

Maximum solid concentrations of coal water slurries predicted by neural network models

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Cheng, Jun; Li, Yanchang; Zhou, Junhu; Liu, Jianzhong; Cen, Kefa

2010-12-15

The nonlinear back-propagation (BP) neural network models were developed to predict the maximum solid concentration of coal water slurry (CWS) which is a substitute for oil fuel, based on physicochemical properties of 37 typical Chinese coals. The Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm was used to train five BP neural network models with different input factors. The data pretreatment method, learning rate and hidden neuron number were optimized by training models. It is found that the Hardgrove grindability index (HGI), moisture and coalification degree of parent coal are 3 indispensable factors for the prediction of CWS maximum solid concentration. Each BP neural network model gives a more accurate prediction result than the traditional polynomial regression equation. The BP neural network model with 3 input factors of HGI, moisture and oxygen/carbon ratio gives the smallest mean absolute error of 0.40%, which is much lower than that of 1.15% given by the traditional polynomial regression equation. (author)

Implementation of neural network based non-linear predictive control

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Sørensen, Paul Haase; Nørgård, Peter Magnus; Ravn, Ole

1999-01-01

This paper describes a control method for non-linear systems based on generalized predictive control. Generalized predictive control (GPC) was developed to control linear systems, including open-loop unstable and non-minimum phase systems, but has also been proposed to be extended for the control...... of non-linear systems. GPC is model based and in this paper we propose the use of a neural network for the modeling of the system. Based on the neural network model, a controller with extended control horizon is developed and the implementation issues are discussed, with particular emphasis...... on an efficient quasi-Newton algorithm. The performance is demonstrated on a pneumatic servo system....

Modeling and prediction of Turkey's electricity consumption using Artificial Neural Networks

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kavaklioglu, Kadir; Ozturk, Harun Kemal; Canyurt, Olcay Ersel; Ceylan, Halim

2009-01-01

Artificial Neural Networks are proposed to model and predict electricity consumption of Turkey. Multi layer perceptron with backpropagation training algorithm is used as the neural network topology. Tangent-sigmoid and pure-linear transfer functions are selected in the hidden and output layer processing elements, respectively. These input-output network models are a result of relationships that exist among electricity consumption and several other socioeconomic variables. Electricity consumption is modeled as a function of economic indicators such as population, gross national product, imports and exports. It is also modeled using export-import ratio and time input only. Performance comparison among different models is made based on absolute and percentage mean square error. Electricity consumption of Turkey is predicted until 2027 using data from 1975 to 2006 along with other economic indicators. The results show that electricity consumption can be modeled using Artificial Neural Networks, and the models can be used to predict future electricity consumption. (author)

Modeling and Control of CSTR using Model based Neural Network Predictive Control

OpenAIRE

Shrivastava, Piyush

2012-01-01

This paper presents a predictive control strategy based on neural network model of the plant is applied to Continuous Stirred Tank Reactor (CSTR). This system is a highly nonlinear process; therefore, a nonlinear predictive method, e.g., neural network predictive control, can be a better match to govern the system dynamics. In the paper, the NN model and the way in which it can be used to predict the behavior of the CSTR process over a certain prediction horizon are described, and some commen...

Application of Functional Link Artificial Neural Network for Prediction of Machinery Noise in Opencast Mines

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Santosh Kumar Nanda

2011-01-01

Full Text Available Functional link-based neural network models were applied to predict opencast mining machineries noise. The paper analyzes the prediction capabilities of functional link neural network based noise prediction models vis-à-vis existing statistical models. In order to find the actual noise status in opencast mines, some of the popular noise prediction models, for example, ISO-9613-2, CONCAWE, VDI, and ENM, have been applied in mining and allied industries to predict the machineries noise by considering various attenuation factors. Functional link artificial neural network (FLANN, polynomial perceptron network (PPN, and Legendre neural network (LeNN were used to predict the machinery noise in opencast mines. The case study is based on data collected from an opencast coal mine of Orissa, India. From the present investigations, it could be concluded that the FLANN model give better noise prediction than the PPN and LeNN model.

Predicting Expressive Dynamics in Piano Performances using Neural Networks

NARCIS (Netherlands)

van Herwaarden, Sam; Grachten, Maarten; de Haas, W. Bas

2014-01-01

This paper presents a model for predicting expressive accentuation in piano performances with neural networks. Using Restricted Boltzmann Machines (RBMs), features are learned from performance data, after which these features are used to predict performed loudness. During feature learning, data

Neural network-based nonlinear model predictive control vs. linear quadratic gaussian control

Science.gov (United States)

Cho, C.; Vance, R.; Mardi, N.; Qian, Z.; Prisbrey, K.

1997-01-01

One problem with the application of neural networks to the multivariable control of mineral and extractive processes is determining whether and how to use them. The objective of this investigation was to compare neural network control to more conventional strategies and to determine if there are any advantages in using neural network control in terms of set-point tracking, rise time, settling time, disturbance rejection and other criteria. The procedure involved developing neural network controllers using both historical plant data and simulation models. Various control patterns were tried, including both inverse and direct neural network plant models. These were compared to state space controllers that are, by nature, linear. For grinding and leaching circuits, a nonlinear neural network-based model predictive control strategy was superior to a state space-based linear quadratic gaussian controller. The investigation pointed out the importance of incorporating state space into neural networks by making them recurrent, i.e., feeding certain output state variables into input nodes in the neural network. It was concluded that neural network controllers can have better disturbance rejection, set-point tracking, rise time, settling time and lower set-point overshoot, and it was also concluded that neural network controllers can be more reliable and easy to implement in complex, multivariable plants.

Risk prediction model: Statistical and artificial neural network approach

Science.gov (United States)

Paiman, Nuur Azreen; Hariri, Azian; Masood, Ibrahim

2017-04-01

Prediction models are increasingly gaining popularity and had been used in numerous areas of studies to complement and fulfilled clinical reasoning and decision making nowadays. The adoption of such models assist physician's decision making, individual's behavior, and consequently improve individual outcomes and the cost-effectiveness of care. The objective of this paper is to reviewed articles related to risk prediction model in order to understand the suitable approach, development and the validation process of risk prediction model. A qualitative review of the aims, methods and significant main outcomes of the nineteen published articles that developed risk prediction models from numerous fields were done. This paper also reviewed on how researchers develop and validate the risk prediction models based on statistical and artificial neural network approach. From the review done, some methodological recommendation in developing and validating the prediction model were highlighted. According to studies that had been done, artificial neural network approached in developing the prediction model were more accurate compared to statistical approach. However currently, only limited published literature discussed on which approach is more accurate for risk prediction model development.

Evolutionary neural network modeling for software cumulative failure time prediction

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tian Liang; Noore, Afzel

2005-01-01

An evolutionary neural network modeling approach for software cumulative failure time prediction based on multiple-delayed-input single-output architecture is proposed. Genetic algorithm is used to globally optimize the number of the delayed input neurons and the number of neurons in the hidden layer of the neural network architecture. Modification of Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm with Bayesian regularization is used to improve the ability to predict software cumulative failure time. The performance of our proposed approach has been compared using real-time control and flight dynamic application data sets. Numerical results show that both the goodness-of-fit and the next-step-predictability of our proposed approach have greater accuracy in predicting software cumulative failure time compared to existing approaches

Prediction of Aerodynamic Coefficient using Genetic Algorithm Optimized Neural Network for Sparse Data

Science.gov (United States)

Rajkumar, T.; Bardina, Jorge; Clancy, Daniel (Technical Monitor)

2002-01-01

Wind tunnels use scale models to characterize aerodynamic coefficients, Wind tunnel testing can be slow and costly due to high personnel overhead and intensive power utilization. Although manual curve fitting can be done, it is highly efficient to use a neural network to define the complex relationship between variables. Numerical simulation of complex vehicles on the wide range of conditions required for flight simulation requires static and dynamic data. Static data at low Mach numbers and angles of attack may be obtained with simpler Euler codes. Static data of stalled vehicles where zones of flow separation are usually present at higher angles of attack require Navier-Stokes simulations which are costly due to the large processing time required to attain convergence. Preliminary dynamic data may be obtained with simpler methods based on correlations and vortex methods; however, accurate prediction of the dynamic coefficients requires complex and costly numerical simulations. A reliable and fast method of predicting complex aerodynamic coefficients for flight simulation I'S presented using a neural network. The training data for the neural network are derived from numerical simulations and wind-tunnel experiments. The aerodynamic coefficients are modeled as functions of the flow characteristics and the control surfaces of the vehicle. The basic coefficients of lift, drag and pitching moment are expressed as functions of angles of attack and Mach number. The modeled and training aerodynamic coefficients show good agreement. This method shows excellent potential for rapid development of aerodynamic models for flight simulation. Genetic Algorithms (GA) are used to optimize a previously built Artificial Neural Network (ANN) that reliably predicts aerodynamic coefficients. Results indicate that the GA provided an efficient method of optimizing the ANN model to predict aerodynamic coefficients. The reliability of the ANN using the GA includes prediction of aerodynamic

Heat transfer prediction in a square porous medium using artificial neural network

Science.gov (United States)

Ahamad, N. Ameer; Athani, Abdulgaphur; Badruddin, Irfan Anjum

2018-05-01

Heat transfer in porous media has been investigated extensively because of its applications in various important fields. Neural network approach is applied to analyze steady two dimensional free convection flows through a porous medium fixed in a square cavity. The backpropagation neural network is trained and used to predict the heat transfer. The results are compared with available information in the literature. It is found that the heat transfer increases with increase in Rayleigh number. It is further found that the local Nusselt number decreases along the height of cavity. The neural network is found to predict the heat transfer behavior accurately for given parameters.

Synapse:neural network for predict power consumption: users guide

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Muller, C; Mangeas, M; Perrot, N

1994-08-01

SYNAPSE is forecasting tool designed to predict power consumption in metropolitan France on the half hour time scale. Some characteristics distinguish this forecasting model from those which already exist. In particular, it is composed of numerous neural networks. The idea for using many neural networks arises from past tests. These tests showed us that a single neural network is not able to solve the problem correctly. From this result, we decided to perform unsupervised classification of the 24 consumption curves. From this classification, six classes appeared, linked with the weekdays: Mondays, Tuesdays, Wednesdays, Thursdays, Fridays, Saturdays, Sundays, holidays and bridge days. For each class and for each half hour, two multilayer perceptrons are built. The two of them forecast the power for one particular half hour, and for a day including one of the determined class. The input of these two network are different: the first one (short time forecasting) includes the powers for the most recent half hour and relative power of the previous day; the second (medium time forecasting) includes only the relative power of the previous day. A process connects the results of every networks and allows one to forecast more than one half-hour in advance. In this process, short time forecasting networks and medium time forecasting networks are used differently. The first kind of neural networks gives good results on the scale of one day. The second one gives good forecasts for the next predicted powers. In this note, the organization of the SYNAPSE program is detailed, and the user`s menu is described. This first version of synapse works and should allow the APC group to evaluate its utility. (authors). 6 refs., 2 appends.

BrainNetCNN: Convolutional neural networks for brain networks; towards predicting neurodevelopment.

Science.gov (United States)

Kawahara, Jeremy; Brown, Colin J; Miller, Steven P; Booth, Brian G; Chau, Vann; Grunau, Ruth E; Zwicker, Jill G; Hamarneh, Ghassan

2017-02-01

We propose BrainNetCNN, a convolutional neural network (CNN) framework to predict clinical neurodevelopmental outcomes from brain networks. In contrast to the spatially local convolutions done in traditional image-based CNNs, our BrainNetCNN is composed of novel edge-to-edge, edge-to-node and node-to-graph convolutional filters that leverage the topological locality of structural brain networks. We apply the BrainNetCNN framework to predict cognitive and motor developmental outcome scores from structural brain networks of infants born preterm. Diffusion tensor images (DTI) of preterm infants, acquired between 27 and 46 weeks gestational age, were used to construct a dataset of structural brain connectivity networks. We first demonstrate the predictive capabilities of BrainNetCNN on synthetic phantom networks with simulated injury patterns and added noise. BrainNetCNN outperforms a fully connected neural-network with the same number of model parameters on both phantoms with focal and diffuse injury patterns. We then apply our method to the task of joint prediction of Bayley-III cognitive and motor scores, assessed at 18 months of age, adjusted for prematurity. We show that our BrainNetCNN framework outperforms a variety of other methods on the same data. Furthermore, BrainNetCNN is able to identify an infant's postmenstrual age to within about 2 weeks. Finally, we explore the high-level features learned by BrainNetCNN by visualizing the importance of each connection in the brain with respect to predicting the outcome scores. These findings are then discussed in the context of the anatomy and function of the developing preterm infant brain. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Prediction of Industrial Electric Energy Consumption in Anhui Province Based on GA-BP Neural Network

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Jiajing; Yin, Guodong; Ni, Youcong; Chen, Jinlan

2018-01-01

In order to improve the prediction accuracy of industrial electrical energy consumption, a prediction model of industrial electrical energy consumption was proposed based on genetic algorithm and neural network. The model use genetic algorithm to optimize the weights and thresholds of BP neural network, and the model is used to predict the energy consumption of industrial power in Anhui Province, to improve the prediction accuracy of industrial electric energy consumption in Anhui province. By comparing experiment of GA-BP prediction model and BP neural network model, the GA-BP model is more accurate with smaller number of neurons in the hidden layer.

Neural Network Prediction of Disruptions Caused by Locked Modes on J-TEXT Tokamak

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ding Yonghua; Jin Xuesong; Chen Zhenzhen; Zhuang Ge

2013-01-01

Prediction of disruptions caused by locked modes using the Back-Propagation (BP) neural network is completed on J-TEXT tokamak. The network, which is based on the BP neural network, uses Mirnov coils and locked mode coils signals as input data, and outputs a signal including information of prediction of locked mode. The rate of successful prediction of locked modes is more than 90%. For intrinsic locked mode disruptions, the network can give a prewarning signal about 1 ms ahead of the locking-time. For the disruption caused by resonant magnetic perturbation (RMPs) locked modes, the network can give a prewarning signal about 10 ms ahead of the locking-time

Prediction of ferric iron precipitation in bioleaching process using partial least squares and artificial neural network

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Golmohammadi Hassan

2013-01-01

Full Text Available A quantitative structure-property relationship (QSPR study based on partial least squares (PLS and artificial neural network (ANN was developed for the prediction of ferric iron precipitation in bioleaching process. The leaching temperature, initial pH, oxidation/reduction potential (ORP, ferrous concentration and particle size of ore were used as inputs to the network. The output of the model was ferric iron precipitation. The optimal condition of the neural network was obtained by adjusting various parameters by trial-and-error. After optimization and training of the network according to back-propagation algorithm, a 5-5-1 neural network was generated for prediction of ferric iron precipitation. The root mean square error for the neural network calculated ferric iron precipitation for training, prediction and validation set are 32.860, 40.739 and 35.890, respectively, which are smaller than those obtained by PLS model (180.972, 165.047 and 149.950, respectively. Results obtained reveal the reliability and good predictivity of neural network model for the prediction of ferric iron precipitation in bioleaching process.

Genetic algorithm based adaptive neural network ensemble and its application in predicting carbon flux

Science.gov (United States)

Xue, Y.; Liu, S.; Hu, Y.; Yang, J.; Chen, Q.

2007-01-01

To improve the accuracy in prediction, Genetic Algorithm based Adaptive Neural Network Ensemble (GA-ANNE) is presented. Intersections are allowed between different training sets based on the fuzzy clustering analysis, which ensures the diversity as well as the accuracy of individual Neural Networks (NNs). Moreover, to improve the accuracy of the adaptive weights of individual NNs, GA is used to optimize the cluster centers. Empirical results in predicting carbon flux of Duke Forest reveal that GA-ANNE can predict the carbon flux more accurately than Radial Basis Function Neural Network (RBFNN), Bagging NN ensemble, and ANNE. ?? 2007 IEEE.

Research on wind field algorithm of wind lidar based on BP neural network and grey prediction

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, Yong; Chen, Chun-Li; Luo, Xiong; Zhang, Yan; Yang, Ze-hou; Zhou, Jie; Shi, Xiao-ding; Wang, Lei

2018-01-01

This paper uses the BP neural network and grey algorithm to forecast and study radar wind field. In order to reduce the residual error in the wind field prediction which uses BP neural network and grey algorithm, calculating the minimum value of residual error function, adopting the residuals of the gray algorithm trained by BP neural network, using the trained network model to forecast the residual sequence, using the predicted residual error sequence to modify the forecast sequence of the grey algorithm. The test data show that using the grey algorithm modified by BP neural network can effectively reduce the residual value and improve the prediction precision.

Prediction of welding shrinkage deformation of bridge steel box girder based on wavelet neural network

Science.gov (United States)

Tao, Yulong; Miao, Yunshui; Han, Jiaqi; Yan, Feiyun

2018-05-01

Aiming at the low accuracy of traditional forecasting methods such as linear regression method, this paper presents a prediction method for predicting the relationship between bridge steel box girder and its displacement with wavelet neural network. Compared with traditional forecasting methods, this scheme has better local characteristics and learning ability, which greatly improves the prediction ability of deformation. Through analysis of the instance and found that after compared with the traditional prediction method based on wavelet neural network, the rigid beam deformation prediction accuracy is higher, and is superior to the BP neural network prediction results, conform to the actual demand of engineering design.

Prediction of Parametric Roll Resonance by Multilayer Perceptron Neural Network

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Míguez González, M; López Peña, F.; Díaz Casás, V.

2011-01-01

Parametric roll resonance is a ship stability related phenomenon that generates sudden large amplitude oscillations up to 30-40 degrees of roll. This can cause severe damage, and it can put the crew in serious danger. The need for a parametric rolling real time prediction system has been acknowle......Parametric roll resonance is a ship stability related phenomenon that generates sudden large amplitude oscillations up to 30-40 degrees of roll. This can cause severe damage, and it can put the crew in serious danger. The need for a parametric rolling real time prediction system has been...... acknowledged in the last few years. This work proposes a prediction system based on a multilayer perceptron (MP) neural network. The training and testing of the MP network is accomplished by feeding it with simulated data of a three degrees-of-freedom nonlinear model of a fishing vessel. The neural network...

Protein secondary structure prediction using modular reciprocal bidirectional recurrent neural networks.

Science.gov (United States)

Babaei, Sepideh; Geranmayeh, Amir; Seyyedsalehi, Seyyed Ali

2010-12-01

The supervised learning of recurrent neural networks well-suited for prediction of protein secondary structures from the underlying amino acids sequence is studied. Modular reciprocal recurrent neural networks (MRR-NN) are proposed to model the strong correlations between adjacent secondary structure elements. Besides, a multilayer bidirectional recurrent neural network (MBR-NN) is introduced to capture the long-range intramolecular interactions between amino acids in formation of the secondary structure. The final modular prediction system is devised based on the interactive integration of the MRR-NN and the MBR-NN structures to arbitrarily engage the neighboring effects of the secondary structure types concurrent with memorizing the sequential dependencies of amino acids along the protein chain. The advanced combined network augments the percentage accuracy (Q₃) to 79.36% and boosts the segment overlap (SOV) up to 70.09% when tested on the PSIPRED dataset in three-fold cross-validation. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Comparison of four Adaboost algorithm based artificial neural networks in wind speed predictions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Liu, Hui; Tian, Hong-qi; Li, Yan-fei; Zhang, Lei

2015-01-01

Highlights: • Four hybrid algorithms are proposed for the wind speed decomposition. • Adaboost algorithm is adopted to provide a hybrid training framework. • MLP neural networks are built to do the forecasting computation. • Four important network training algorithms are included in the MLP networks. • All the proposed hybrid algorithms are suitable for the wind speed predictions. - Abstract: The technology of wind speed prediction is important to guarantee the safety of wind power utilization. In this paper, four different hybrid methods are proposed for the high-precision multi-step wind speed predictions based on the Adaboost (Adaptive Boosting) algorithm and the MLP (Multilayer Perceptron) neural networks. In the hybrid Adaboost–MLP forecasting architecture, four important algorithms are adopted for the training and modeling of the MLP neural networks, including GD-ALR-BP algorithm, GDM-ALR-BP algorithm, CG-BP-FR algorithm and BFGS algorithm. The aim of the study is to investigate the promoted forecasting percentages of the MLP neural networks by the Adaboost algorithm’ optimization under various training algorithms. The hybrid models in the performance comparison include Adaboost–GD-ALR-BP–MLP, Adaboost–GDM-ALR-BP–MLP, Adaboost–CG-BP-FR–MLP, Adaboost–BFGS–MLP, GD-ALR-BP–MLP, GDM-ALR-BP–MLP, CG-BP-FR–MLP and BFGS–MLP. Two experimental results show that: (1) the proposed hybrid Adaboost–MLP forecasting architecture is effective for the wind speed predictions; (2) the Adaboost algorithm has promoted the forecasting performance of the MLP neural networks considerably; (3) among the proposed Adaboost–MLP forecasting models, the Adaboost–CG-BP-FR–MLP model has the best performance; and (4) the improved percentages of the MLP neural networks by the Adaboost algorithm decrease step by step with the following sequence of training algorithms as: GD-ALR-BP, GDM-ALR-BP, CG-BP-FR and BFGS

From Imitation to Prediction, Data Compression vs Recurrent Neural Networks for Natural Language Processing

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Juan Andres Laura

2018-03-01

Full Text Available In recent studies Recurrent Neural Networks were used for generative processes and their surprising performance can be explained by their ability to create good predictions. In addition, Data Compression is also based on prediction. What the problem comes down to is whether a data compressor could be used to perform as well as recurrent neural networks in the natural language processing tasks of sentiment analysis and automatic text generation. If this is possible, then the problem comes down to determining if a compression algorithm is even more intelligent than a neural network in such tasks. In our journey, a fundamental difference between a Data Compression Algorithm and Recurrent Neural Networks has been discovered.

Learning Traffic as Images: A Deep Convolutional Neural Network for Large-Scale Transportation Network Speed Prediction.

Science.gov (United States)

Ma, Xiaolei; Dai, Zhuang; He, Zhengbing; Ma, Jihui; Wang, Yong; Wang, Yunpeng

2017-04-10

This paper proposes a convolutional neural network (CNN)-based method that learns traffic as images and predicts large-scale, network-wide traffic speed with a high accuracy. Spatiotemporal traffic dynamics are converted to images describing the time and space relations of traffic flow via a two-dimensional time-space matrix. A CNN is applied to the image following two consecutive steps: abstract traffic feature extraction and network-wide traffic speed prediction. The effectiveness of the proposed method is evaluated by taking two real-world transportation networks, the second ring road and north-east transportation network in Beijing, as examples, and comparing the method with four prevailing algorithms, namely, ordinary least squares, k-nearest neighbors, artificial neural network, and random forest, and three deep learning architectures, namely, stacked autoencoder, recurrent neural network, and long-short-term memory network. The results show that the proposed method outperforms other algorithms by an average accuracy improvement of 42.91% within an acceptable execution time. The CNN can train the model in a reasonable time and, thus, is suitable for large-scale transportation networks.

An Artificial Neural Network Based Short-term Dynamic Prediction of Algae Bloom

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yao Junyang

2014-06-01

Full Text Available This paper proposes a method of short-term prediction of algae bloom based on artificial neural network. Firstly, principal component analysis is applied to water environmental factors in algae bloom raceway ponds to get main factors that influence the formation of algae blooms. Then, a model of short-term dynamic prediction based on neural network is built with the current chlorophyll_a values as input and the chlorophyll_a values in the next moment as output to realize short-term dynamic prediction of algae bloom. Simulation results show that the model can realize short-term prediction of algae bloom effectively.

Artificial Neural Network for the Prediction of Chromosomal Abnormalities in Azoospermic Males.

Science.gov (United States)

Akinsal, Emre Can; Haznedar, Bulent; Baydilli, Numan; Kalinli, Adem; Ozturk, Ahmet; Ekmekçioğlu, Oğuz

2018-02-04

To evaluate whether an artifical neural network helps to diagnose any chromosomal abnormalities in azoospermic males. The data of azoospermic males attending to a tertiary academic referral center were evaluated retrospectively. Height, total testicular volume, follicle stimulating hormone, luteinising hormone, total testosterone and ejaculate volume of the patients were used for the analyses. In artificial neural network, the data of 310 azoospermics were used as the education and 115 as the test set. Logistic regression analyses and discriminant analyses were performed for statistical analyses. The tests were re-analysed with a neural network. Both logistic regression analyses and artificial neural network predicted the presence or absence of chromosomal abnormalities with more than 95% accuracy. The use of artificial neural network model has yielded satisfactory results in terms of distinguishing patients whether they have any chromosomal abnormality or not.

Modelling and prediction for chaotic fir laser attractor using rational function neural network.

Science.gov (United States)

Cho, S

2001-02-01

Many real-world systems such as irregular ECG signal, volatility of currency exchange rate and heated fluid reaction exhibit highly complex nonlinear characteristic known as chaos. These chaotic systems cannot be retreated satisfactorily using linear system theory due to its high dimensionality and irregularity. This research focuses on prediction and modelling of chaotic FIR (Far InfraRed) laser system for which the underlying equations are not given. This paper proposed a method for prediction and modelling a chaotic FIR laser time series using rational function neural network. Three network architectures, TDNN (Time Delayed Neural Network), RBF (radial basis function) network and the RF (rational function) network, are also presented. Comparisons between these networks performance show the improvements introduced by the RF network in terms of a decrement in network complexity and better ability of predictability.

Knowledge base and neural network approach for protein secondary structure prediction.

Science.gov (United States)

Patel, Maulika S; Mazumdar, Himanshu S

2014-11-21

Protein structure prediction is of great relevance given the abundant genomic and proteomic data generated by the genome sequencing projects. Protein secondary structure prediction is addressed as a sub task in determining the protein tertiary structure and function. In this paper, a novel algorithm, KB-PROSSP-NN, which is a combination of knowledge base and modeling of the exceptions in the knowledge base using neural networks for protein secondary structure prediction (PSSP), is proposed. The knowledge base is derived from a proteomic sequence-structure database and consists of the statistics of association between the 5-residue words and corresponding secondary structure. The predicted results obtained using knowledge base are refined with a Backpropogation neural network algorithm. Neural net models the exceptions of the knowledge base. The Q3 accuracy of 90% and 82% is achieved on the RS126 and CB396 test sets respectively which suggest improvement over existing state of art methods. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A Neural Network Model for Prediction of Sound Quality

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Nielsen,, Lars Bramsløw

An artificial neural network structure has been specified, implemented and optimized for the purpose of predicting the perceived sound quality for normal-hearing and hearing-impaired subjects. The network was implemented by means of commercially available software and optimized to predict results...... obtained in subjective sound quality rating experiments based on input data from an auditory model. Various types of input data and data representations from the auditory model were used as input data for the chosen network structure, which was a three-layer perceptron. This network was trained by means...... the physical signal parameters and the subjectively perceived sound quality. No simple objective-subjective relationship was evident from this analysis....

PREDICTION OF BULLS’ SLAUGHTER VALUE FROM GROWTH DATA USING ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORK

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Krzysztof ADAMCZYK

2006-02-01

Full Text Available The objective of this research was to investigate the usefulness of artifi cial neural network (ANN in the prediction of slaughter value of young crossbred bulls based on growth data. The studies were carried out on 104 bulls fattened from 120 days of life until the weight of 500 kg. The bulls were group fed using mainly farm feeds. After slaughter the carcasses were dissected and meat was subjected to physico-chemical and organoleptic analyses. The obtained data were used for the development of an artifi cial neural network model of slaughter value prediction. It was found that some slaughter value traits (hot carcass, cold half-carcass, neck and round weights, bone content in dissected elements in half-carcass, meat pH, dry-matter and protein contents in meat and meat tenderness and juiciness can be predicted with a considerably high accuracy using the artifi cial neural network.

PREDICTING CUSTOMER CHURN IN BANKING INDUSTRY USING NEURAL NETWORKS

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Alisa Bilal Zorić

2016-03-01

Full Text Available The aim of this article is to present a case study of usage of one of the data mining methods, neural network, in knowledge discovery from databases in the banking industry. Data mining is automated process of analysing, organization or grouping a large set of data from different perspectives and summarizing it into useful information using special algorithms. Data mining can help to resolve banking problems by finding some regularity, causality and correlation to business information which are not visible at first sight because they are hidden in large amounts of data. In this paper, we used one of the data mining methods, neural network, within the software package Alyuda NeuroInteligence to predict customer churn in bank. The focus on customer churn is to determinate the customers who are at risk of leaving and analysing whether those customers are worth retaining. Neural network is statistical learning model inspired by biological neural and it is used to estimate or approximate functions that can depend on a large number of inputs which are generally unknown. Although the method itself is complicated, there are tools that enable the use of neural networks without much prior knowledge of how they operate. The results show that clients who use more bank services (products are more loyal, so bank should focus on those clients who use less than three products, and offer them products according to their needs. Similar results are obtained for different network topologies.

Two stage neural network modelling for robust model predictive control.

Science.gov (United States)

Patan, Krzysztof

2018-01-01

The paper proposes a novel robust model predictive control scheme realized by means of artificial neural networks. The neural networks are used twofold: to design the so-called fundamental model of a plant and to catch uncertainty associated with the plant model. In order to simplify the optimization process carried out within the framework of predictive control an instantaneous linearization is applied which renders it possible to define the optimization problem in the form of constrained quadratic programming. Stability of the proposed control system is also investigated by showing that a cost function is monotonically decreasing with respect to time. Derived robust model predictive control is tested and validated on the example of a pneumatic servomechanism working at different operating regimes. Copyright © 2017 ISA. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Ocean wave prediction using numerical and neural network models

Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

Mandal, S.; Prabaharan, N.

This paper presents an overview of the development of the numerical wave prediction models and recently used neural networks for ocean wave hindcasting and forecasting. The numerical wave models express the physical concepts of the phenomena...

PREDICTION OF DEMAND FOR PRIMARY BOND OFFERINGS USING ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORKS

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Michal Tkac

2014-12-01

Full Text Available Purpose: Primary bond markets represent an interesting investment opportunity not only for banks, insurance companies, and other institutional investors, but also for individuals looking for capital gains. Since offered securities vary in terms of their rating, industrial classification, coupon, or maturity, demand of buyers for particular offerings often overcomes issued volume and price of given bond on secondary market consequently rises. Investors might be regarded as consumers purchasing required service according to their specific preferences at desired price. This paper aims at analysis of demand for bonds on primary market using artificial neural networks.Design/methodology: We design a multilayered feedforward neural network trained by Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm in order to estimate demand for individual bonds based on parameters of particular offerings. Outcomes obtained by artificial neural network are compared with conventional econometric methods.Findings: Our results indicate that artificial neural network significantly outperformed standard econometric techniques and on examined sample of primary bond offerings achieved considerably better performance in terms of prediction accuracy and mean squared error.Originality: We show that proposed neural network is able to successfully predict demand for primary obligation offerings based on their specifications. Moreover, we identify relevant parameters of issues which are able to considerably affect total demand for given security.  Our findings might not only help investors to detect marketable securities, but also enable issuing entities to increase demand for their bonds in order to decrease their offering price. 

Predicting carbonate permeabilities from wireline logs using a back-propagation neural network

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wiener, J.M.; Moll, R.F.; Rogers, J.A.

1991-01-01

This paper explores the applicability of using Neural Networks to aid in the determination of carbonate permeability from wireline logs. Resistivity, interval transit time, neutron porosity, and bulk density logs form Texaco's Stockyard Creek Oil field were used as input to a specially designed neural network to predict core permeabilities in this carbonate reservoir. Also of interest was the comparison of the neural network's results to those of standard statistical techniques. The process of developing the neural network for this problem has shown that a good understanding of the data is required when creating the training set from which the network learns. This network was trained to learn core permeabilities from raw and transformed log data using a hyperbolic tangent transfer function and a sum of squares global error function. Also, it required two hidden layers to solve this particular problem

Comparing various artificial neural network types for water temperature prediction in rivers

Science.gov (United States)

Piotrowski, Adam P.; Napiorkowski, Maciej J.; Napiorkowski, Jaroslaw J.; Osuch, Marzena

2015-10-01

A number of methods have been proposed for the prediction of streamwater temperature based on various meteorological and hydrological variables. The present study shows a comparison of few types of data-driven neural networks (multi-layer perceptron, product-units, adaptive-network-based fuzzy inference systems and wavelet neural networks) and nearest neighbour approach for short time streamwater temperature predictions in two natural catchments (mountainous and lowland) located in temperate climate zone, with snowy winters and hot summers. To allow wide applicability of such models, autoregressive inputs are not used and only easily available measurements are considered. Each neural network type is calibrated independently 100 times and the mean, median and standard deviation of the results are used for the comparison. Finally, the ensemble aggregation approach is tested. The results show that simple and popular multi-layer perceptron neural networks are in most cases not outperformed by more complex and advanced models. The choice of neural network is dependent on the way the models are compared. This may be a warning for anyone who wish to promote own models, that their superiority should be verified in different ways. The best results are obtained when mean, maximum and minimum daily air temperatures from the previous days are used as inputs, together with the current runoff and declination of the Sun from two recent days. The ensemble aggregation approach allows reducing the mean square error up to several percent, depending on the case, and noticeably diminishes differences in modelling performance obtained by various neural network types.

Nonlinear Model Predictive Control Based on a Self-Organizing Recurrent Neural Network.

Science.gov (United States)

Han, Hong-Gui; Zhang, Lu; Hou, Ying; Qiao, Jun-Fei

2016-02-01

A nonlinear model predictive control (NMPC) scheme is developed in this paper based on a self-organizing recurrent radial basis function (SR-RBF) neural network, whose structure and parameters are adjusted concurrently in the training process. The proposed SR-RBF neural network is represented in a general nonlinear form for predicting the future dynamic behaviors of nonlinear systems. To improve the modeling accuracy, a spiking-based growing and pruning algorithm and an adaptive learning algorithm are developed to tune the structure and parameters of the SR-RBF neural network, respectively. Meanwhile, for the control problem, an improved gradient method is utilized for the solution of the optimization problem in NMPC. The stability of the resulting control system is proved based on the Lyapunov stability theory. Finally, the proposed SR-RBF neural network-based NMPC (SR-RBF-NMPC) is used to control the dissolved oxygen (DO) concentration in a wastewater treatment process (WWTP). Comparisons with other existing methods demonstrate that the SR-RBF-NMPC can achieve a considerably better model fitting for WWTP and a better control performance for DO concentration.

Ads' click-through rates predicting based on gated recurrent unit neural networks

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, Qiaohong; Guo, Zixuan; Dong, Wen; Jin, Lingzi

2018-05-01

In order to improve the effect of online advertising and to increase the revenue of advertising, the gated recurrent unit neural networks(GRU) model is used as the ads' click through rates(CTR) predicting. Combined with the characteristics of gated unit structure and the unique of time sequence in data, using BPTT algorithm to train the model. Furthermore, by optimizing the step length algorithm of the gated unit recurrent neural networks, making the model reach optimal point better and faster in less iterative rounds. The experiment results show that the model based on the gated recurrent unit neural networks and its optimization of step length algorithm has the better effect on the ads' CTR predicting, which helps advertisers, media and audience achieve a win-win and mutually beneficial situation in Three-Side Game.

The Satellite Clock Bias Prediction Method Based on Takagi-Sugeno Fuzzy Neural Network

Science.gov (United States)

Cai, C. L.; Yu, H. G.; Wei, Z. C.; Pan, J. D.

2017-05-01

The continuous improvement of the prediction accuracy of Satellite Clock Bias (SCB) is the key problem of precision navigation. In order to improve the precision of SCB prediction and better reflect the change characteristics of SCB, this paper proposes an SCB prediction method based on the Takagi-Sugeno fuzzy neural network. Firstly, the SCB values are pre-treated based on their characteristics. Then, an accurate Takagi-Sugeno fuzzy neural network model is established based on the preprocessed data to predict SCB. This paper uses the precise SCB data with different sampling intervals provided by IGS (International Global Navigation Satellite System Service) to realize the short-time prediction experiment, and the results are compared with the ARIMA (Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average) model, GM(1,1) model, and the quadratic polynomial model. The results show that the Takagi-Sugeno fuzzy neural network model is feasible and effective for the SCB short-time prediction experiment, and performs well for different types of clocks. The prediction results for the proposed method are better than the conventional methods obviously.

The Multi-Layered Perceptrons Neural Networks for the Prediction of Daily Solar Radiation

OpenAIRE

Radouane Iqdour; Abdelouhab Zeroual

2007-01-01

The Multi-Layered Perceptron (MLP) Neural networks have been very successful in a number of signal processing applications. In this work we have studied the possibilities and the met difficulties in the application of the MLP neural networks for the prediction of daily solar radiation data. We have used the Polack-Ribière algorithm for training the neural networks. A comparison, in term of the statistical indicators, with a linear model most used in literature, is also perfo...

Predictive Control of Hydronic Floor Heating Systems using Neural Networks and Genetic Algorithms

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Vinther, Kasper; Green, Torben; Østergaard, Søren

2017-01-01

This paper presents the use a neural network and a micro genetic algorithm to optimize future set-points in existing hydronic floor heating systems for improved energy efficiency. The neural network can be trained to predict the impact of changes in set-points on future room temperatures. Additio...... space is not guaranteed. Evaluation of the performance of multiple neural networks is performed, using different levels of information, and optimization results are presented on a detailed house simulation model....

Artificial neural networks application for solid fuel slagging intensity predictions

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Kakietek Sławomir

2017-01-01

Full Text Available Slagging issues present in pulverized steam boilers very often lead to heat transfer problems, corrosion and not planned outages of boilers which increase the cost of energy production and decrease the efficiency of energy production. Slagging especially occurs in regions with reductive atmospheres which nowadays are very common due to very strict limitations in NOx emissions. Moreover alternative fuels like biomass which are also used in combustion systems from two decades in order to decrease CO2 emissions also usually increase the risk of slagging. Thus the prediction of slagging properties of fuels is not the minor issue which can be neglected before purchasing or mixing of fuels. This however is rather difficult to estimate and even commonly known standard laboratory methods like fusion temperature determination or special indexers calculated on the basis of proximate and ultimate analyses, very often have no reasonable correlation to real boiler fuel behaviour. In this paper the method of determination of slagging properties of solid fuels based on laboratory investigation and artificial neural networks were presented. A fuel data base with over 40 fuels was created. Neural networks simulations were carried out in order to predict the beginning temperature and intensity of slagging. Reasonable results were obtained for some of tested neural networks, especially for hybrid feedforward networks with PCA technique. Consequently neural network model will be used in Common Intelligent Boiler Operation Platform (CIBOP being elaborated within CERUBIS research project for two BP-1150 and BB-1150 steam boilers. The model among others enables proper fuel selection in order to minimize slagging risk.

Breakout Prediction Based on BP Neural Network in Continuous Casting Process

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Zhang Ben-guo

2016-01-01

Full Text Available An improved BP neural network model was presented by modifying the learning algorithm of the traditional BP neural network, based on the Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm, and was applied to the breakout prediction system in the continuous casting process. The results showed that the accuracy rate of the model for the temperature pattern of sticking breakout was 96.43%, and the quote rate was 100%, that verified the feasibility of the model.

Predicting Developmental Disorder in Infants Using an Artificial Neural Network

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Farin Soleimani

2013-06-01

Full Text Available Early recognition of developmental disorders is an important goal, and equally important is avoiding misdiagnosing a disorder in a healthy child without pathology. The aim of the present study was to develop an artificial neural network using perinatal information to predict developmental disorder at infancy. A total of 1,232 mother–child dyads were recruited from 6,150 in the original data of Karaj, Alborz Province, Iran. Thousands of variables are examined in this data including basic characteristics, medical history, and variables related to infants. The validated Infant Neurological International Battery test was employed to assess the infant’s development. The concordance indexes showed that true prediction of developmental disorder in the artificial neural network model, compared to the logistic regression model, was 83.1% vs. 79.5% and the area under ROC curves, calculated from testing data, were 0.79 and 0.68, respectively. In addition, specificity and sensitivity of the ANN model vs. LR model was calculated 93.2% vs. 92.7% and 39.1% vs. 21.7%. An artificial neural network performed significantly better than a logistic regression model.

Prediction of Clinical Deterioration in Hospitalized Adult Patients with Hematologic Malignancies Using a Neural Network Model.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Scott B Hu

Full Text Available Clinical deterioration (ICU transfer and cardiac arrest occurs during approximately 5-10% of hospital admissions. Existing prediction models have a high false positive rate, leading to multiple false alarms and alarm fatigue. We used routine vital signs and laboratory values obtained from the electronic medical record (EMR along with a machine learning algorithm called a neural network to develop a prediction model that would increase the predictive accuracy and decrease false alarm rates.Retrospective cohort study.The hematologic malignancy unit in an academic medical center in the United States.Adult patients admitted to the hematologic malignancy unit from 2009 to 2010.None.Vital signs and laboratory values were obtained from the electronic medical record system and then used as predictors (features. A neural network was used to build a model to predict clinical deterioration events (ICU transfer and cardiac arrest. The performance of the neural network model was compared to the VitalPac Early Warning Score (ViEWS. Five hundred sixty five consecutive total admissions were available with 43 admissions resulting in clinical deterioration. Using simulation, the neural network outperformed the ViEWS model with a positive predictive value of 82% compared to 24%, respectively.We developed and tested a neural network-based prediction model for clinical deterioration in patients hospitalized in the hematologic malignancy unit. Our neural network model outperformed an existing model, substantially increasing the positive predictive value, allowing the clinician to be confident in the alarm raised. This system can be readily implemented in a real-time fashion in existing EMR systems.

Artificial Neural Networks in the prediction of insolvency. A paradigm shift to traditional business practices recipes

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Marcia M. Lastre Valdes

2014-06-01

Full Text Available In this paper a review and analysis of the major theories and models that address the prediction of corporate bankruptcy and insolvency is made. Neural networks are a tool of most recent appearance, although in recent years have received considerable attention from the academic and professional world, and have started to be implemented in different models testing organizations insolvency based on neural computation. The purpose of this paper is to yield evidence of the usefulness of Artificial Neural Networks in the problem of bankruptcy prediction insolence or so compare its predictive ability with the methods commonly used in that context. The findings suggest that high predictive capabilities can be achieved  using artificial neural networks, with qualitative and quantitative variables.

Artificial Neural Network Approach to Predict Biodiesel Production in Supercritical tert-Butyl Methyl Ether

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Obie Farobie

2016-05-01

Full Text Available In this study, for the first time artificial neural network was used to predict biodiesel yield in supercritical tert-butyl methyl ether (MTBE. The experimental data of biodiesel yield conducted by varying four input factors (i.e. temperature, pressure, oil-to-MTBE molar ratio, and reaction time were used to elucidate artificial neural network model in order to predict biodiesel yield. The main goal of this study was to assess how accurately this artificial neural network model to predict biodiesel yield conducted under supercritical MTBE condition. The result shows that artificial neural network is a powerful tool for modeling and predicting biodiesel yield conducted under supercritical MTBE condition that was proven by a high value of coefficient of determination (R of 0.9969, 0.9899, and 0.9658 for training, validation, and testing, respectively. Using this approach, the highest biodiesel yield was determined of 0.93 mol/mol (corresponding to the actual biodiesel yield of 0.94 mol/mol that was achieved at 400 °C, under the reactor pressure of 10 MPa, oil-to-MTBE molar ratio of 1:40 within 15 min of reaction time.

An Application to the Prediction of LOD Change Based on General Regression Neural Network

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, X. H.; Wang, Q. J.; Zhu, J. J.; Zhang, H.

2011-07-01

Traditional prediction of the LOD (length of day) change was based on linear models, such as the least square model and the autoregressive technique, etc. Due to the complex non-linear features of the LOD variation, the performances of the linear model predictors are not fully satisfactory. This paper applies a non-linear neural network - general regression neural network (GRNN) model to forecast the LOD change, and the results are analyzed and compared with those obtained with the back propagation neural network and other models. The comparison shows that the performance of the GRNN model in the prediction of the LOD change is efficient and feasible.

Neural Network Predictions of the 4-Quadrant Wageningen Propeller Series

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

Roddy, Robert F; Hess, David E; Faller, Will

2006-01-01

.... This report describes the development of feedforward neural network (FFNN) predictions of four-quadrant thrust and torque behavior for the Wageningen B-Screw Series of propellers and for two Wageningen ducted propeller series...

An Application of Non-Linear Autoregressive Neural Networks to Predict Energy Consumption in Public Buildings

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Luis Gonzaga Baca Ruiz

2016-08-01

Full Text Available This paper addresses the problem of energy consumption prediction using neural networks over a set of public buildings. Since energy consumption in the public sector comprises a substantial share of overall consumption, the prediction of such consumption represents a decisive issue in the achievement of energy savings. In our experiments, we use the data provided by an energy consumption monitoring system in a compound of faculties and research centers at the University of Granada, and provide a methodology to predict future energy consumption using nonlinear autoregressive (NAR and the nonlinear autoregressive neural network with exogenous inputs (NARX, respectively. Results reveal that NAR and NARX neural networks are both suitable for performing energy consumption prediction, but also that exogenous data may help to improve the accuracy of predictions.

Artificial neural networks for prediction of percentage of water ...

Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

have high compressive strengths in comparison with con- crete specimens ... presenting suitable model based on artificial neural networks. (ANNs) to ... by experimental ones to evaluate the software power for pre- dicting the ..... Figure 7. Correlation of measured and predicted percentage of water absorption values of.

Classification and prediction of the critical heat flux using fuzzy theory and artificial neural networks

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Moon, Sang Ki; Chang, Soon Heung

1994-01-01

A new method to predict the critical heat flux (CHF) is proposed, based on the fuzzy clustering and artificial neural network. The fuzzy clustering classifies the experimental CHF data into a few data clusters (data groups) according to the data characteristics. After classification of the experimental data, the characteristics of the resulting clusters are discussed with emphasis on the distribution of the experimental conditions and physical mechanism. The CHF data in each group are trained in an artificial neural network to predict the CHF. The artificial neural network adjusts the weight so as to minimize the prediction error within the corresponding cluster. Application of the proposed method to the KAIST CHF data bank shows good prediction capability of the CHF, better than other existing methods. ((orig.))

Hand Posture Prediction Using Neural Networks within a Biomechanical Model

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Marta C. Mora

2012-10-01

Full Text Available This paper proposes the use of artificial neural networks (ANNs in the framework of a biomechanical hand model for grasping. ANNs enhance the model capabilities as they substitute estimated data for the experimental inputs required by the grasping algorithm used. These inputs are the tentative grasping posture and the most open posture during grasping. As a consequence, more realistic grasping postures are predicted by the grasping algorithm, along with the contact information required by the dynamic biomechanical model (contact points and normals. Several neural network architectures are tested and compared in terms of prediction errors, leading to encouraging results. The performance of the overall proposal is also shown through simulation, where a grasping experiment is replicated and compared to the real grasping data collected by a data glove device.

Use of Artificial Neural Networks for Prediction of Convective Heat Transfer in Evaporative Units

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Romero-Méndez Ricardo

2014-01-01

Full Text Available Convective heat transfer prediction of evaporative processes is more complicated than the heat transfer prediction of single-phase convective processes. This is due to the fact that physical phenomena involved in evaporative processes are very complex and vary with the vapor quality that increases gradually as more fluid is evaporated. Power-law correlations used for prediction of evaporative convection have proved little accuracy when used in practical cases. In this investigation, neural-network-based models have been used as a tool for prediction of the thermal performance of evaporative units. For this purpose, experimental data were obtained in a facility that includes a counter-flow concentric pipes heat exchanger with R134a refrigerant flowing inside the circular section and temperature controlled warm water moving through the annular section. This work also included the construction of an inverse Rankine refrigeration cycle that was equipped with measurement devices, sensors and a data acquisition system to collect the experimental measurements under different operating conditions. Part of the data were used to train several neural-network configurations. The best neural-network model was then used for prediction purposes and the results obtained were compared with experimental data not used for training purposes. The results obtained in this investigation reveal the convenience of using artificial neural networks as accurate predictive tools for determining convective heat transfer rates of evaporative processes.

The Dissolved Oxygen Prediction Method Based on Neural Network

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Zhong Xiao

2017-01-01

Full Text Available The dissolved oxygen (DO is oxygen dissolved in water, which is an important factor for the aquaculture. Using BP neural network method with the combination of purelin, logsig, and tansig activation functions is proposed for the prediction of aquaculture’s dissolved oxygen. The input layer, hidden layer, and output layer are introduced in detail including the weight adjustment process. The breeding data of three ponds in actual 10 consecutive days were used for experiments; these ponds were located in Beihai, Guangxi, a traditional aquaculture base in southern China. The data of the first 7 days are used for training, and the data of the latter 3 days are used for the test. Compared with the common prediction models, curve fitting (CF, autoregression (AR, grey model (GM, and support vector machines (SVM, the experimental results show that the prediction accuracy of the neural network is the highest, and all the predicted values are less than 5% of the error limit, which can meet the needs of practical applications, followed by AR, GM, SVM, and CF. The prediction model can help to improve the water quality monitoring level of aquaculture which will prevent the deterioration of water quality and the outbreak of disease.

Using machine learning, neural networks and statistics to predict bankruptcy

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Pompe, P.P.M.; Feelders, A.J.; Feelders, A.J.

1997-01-01

Recent literature strongly suggests that machine learning approaches to classification outperform "classical" statistical methods. We make a comparison between the performance of linear discriminant analysis, classification trees, and neural networks in predicting corporate bankruptcy. Linear

Development of Artificial Neural Network Model for Diesel Fuel Properties Prediction using Vibrational Spectroscopy.

Science.gov (United States)

Bolanča, Tomislav; Marinović, Slavica; Ukić, Sime; Jukić, Ante; Rukavina, Vinko

2012-06-01

This paper describes development of artificial neural network models which can be used to correlate and predict diesel fuel properties from several FTIR-ATR absorbances and Raman intensities as input variables. Multilayer feed forward and radial basis function neural networks have been used to rapid and simultaneous prediction of cetane number, cetane index, density, viscosity, distillation temperatures at 10% (T10), 50% (T50) and 90% (T90) recovery, contents of total aromatics and polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons of commercial diesel fuels. In this study two-phase training procedures for multilayer feed forward networks were applied. While first phase training algorithm was constantly the back propagation one, two second phase training algorithms were varied and compared, namely: conjugate gradient and quasi Newton. In case of radial basis function network, radial layer was trained using K-means radial assignment algorithm and three different radial spread algorithms: explicit, isotropic and K-nearest neighbour. The number of hidden layer neurons and experimental data points used for the training set have been optimized for both neural networks in order to insure good predictive ability by reducing unnecessary experimental work. This work shows that developed artificial neural network models can determine main properties of diesel fuels simultaneously based on a single and fast IR or Raman measurement.

Using Neural Networks to Predict the Hardness of Aluminum Alloys

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

B. Zahran

2015-02-01

Full Text Available Aluminum alloys have gained significant industrial importance being involved in many of the light and heavy industries and especially in aerospace engineering. The mechanical properties of aluminum alloys are defined by a number of principal microstructural features. Conventional mathematical models of these properties are sometimes very complex to be analytically calculated. In this paper, a neural network model is used to predict the correlations between the hardness of aluminum alloys in relation to certain alloying elements. A backpropagation neural network is trained using a thorough dataset. The impact of certain elements is documented and an optimum structure is proposed.

Wind Power Plant Prediction by Using Neural Networks: Preprint

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Liu, Z.; Gao, W.; Wan, Y. H.; Muljadi, E.

2012-08-01

This paper introduces a method of short-term wind power prediction for a wind power plant by training neural networks based on historical data of wind speed and wind direction. The model proposed is shown to achieve a high accuracy with respect to the measured data.

A prediction method for the wax deposition rate based on a radial basis function neural network

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ying Xie

2017-06-01

Full Text Available The radial basis function neural network is a popular supervised learning tool based on machinery learning technology. Its high precision having been proven, the radial basis function neural network has been applied in many areas. The accumulation of deposited materials in the pipeline may lead to the need for increased pumping power, a decreased flow rate or even to the total blockage of the line, with losses of production and capital investment, so research on predicting the wax deposition rate is significant for the safe and economical operation of an oil pipeline. This paper adopts the radial basis function neural network to predict the wax deposition rate by considering four main influencing factors, the pipe wall temperature gradient, pipe wall wax crystal solubility coefficient, pipe wall shear stress and crude oil viscosity, by the gray correlational analysis method. MATLAB software is employed to establish the RBF neural network. Compared with the previous literature, favorable consistency exists between the predicted outcomes and the experimental results, with a relative error of 1.5%. It can be concluded that the prediction method of wax deposition rate based on the RBF neural network is feasible.

Adaptive model predictive process control using neural networks

Science.gov (United States)

Buescher, K.L.; Baum, C.C.; Jones, R.D.

1997-08-19

A control system for controlling the output of at least one plant process output parameter is implemented by adaptive model predictive control using a neural network. An improved method and apparatus provides for sampling plant output and control input at a first sampling rate to provide control inputs at the fast rate. The MPC system is, however, provided with a network state vector that is constructed at a second, slower rate so that the input control values used by the MPC system are averaged over a gapped time period. Another improvement is a provision for on-line training that may include difference training, curvature training, and basis center adjustment to maintain the weights and basis centers of the neural in an updated state that can follow changes in the plant operation apart from initial off-line training data. 46 figs.

A Wavelet Neural Network Optimal Control Model for Traffic-Flow Prediction in Intelligent Transport Systems

Science.gov (United States)

Huang, Darong; Bai, Xing-Rong

Based on wavelet transform and neural network theory, a traffic-flow prediction model, which was used in optimal control of Intelligent Traffic system, is constructed. First of all, we have extracted the scale coefficient and wavelet coefficient from the online measured raw data of traffic flow via wavelet transform; Secondly, an Artificial Neural Network model of Traffic-flow Prediction was constructed and trained using the coefficient sequences as inputs and raw data as outputs; Simultaneous, we have designed the running principium of the optimal control system of traffic-flow Forecasting model, the network topological structure and the data transmitted model; Finally, a simulated example has shown that the technique is effectively and exactly. The theoretical results indicated that the wavelet neural network prediction model and algorithms have a broad prospect for practical application.

Predicting musically induced emotions from physiological inputs: linear and neural network models.

Science.gov (United States)

Russo, Frank A; Vempala, Naresh N; Sandstrom, Gillian M

2013-01-01

Listening to music often leads to physiological responses. Do these physiological responses contain sufficient information to infer emotion induced in the listener? The current study explores this question by attempting to predict judgments of "felt" emotion from physiological responses alone using linear and neural network models. We measured five channels of peripheral physiology from 20 participants-heart rate (HR), respiration, galvanic skin response, and activity in corrugator supercilii and zygomaticus major facial muscles. Using valence and arousal (VA) dimensions, participants rated their felt emotion after listening to each of 12 classical music excerpts. After extracting features from the five channels, we examined their correlation with VA ratings, and then performed multiple linear regression to see if a linear relationship between the physiological responses could account for the ratings. Although linear models predicted a significant amount of variance in arousal ratings, they were unable to do so with valence ratings. We then used a neural network to provide a non-linear account of the ratings. The network was trained on the mean ratings of eight of the 12 excerpts and tested on the remainder. Performance of the neural network confirms that physiological responses alone can be used to predict musically induced emotion. The non-linear model derived from the neural network was more accurate than linear models derived from multiple linear regression, particularly along the valence dimension. A secondary analysis allowed us to quantify the relative contributions of inputs to the non-linear model. The study represents a novel approach to understanding the complex relationship between physiological responses and musically induced emotion.

Predicting musically induced emotions from physiological inputs: Linear and neural network models

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Frank A. Russo

2013-08-01

Full Text Available Listening to music often leads to physiological responses. Do these physiological responses contain sufficient information to infer emotion induced in the listener? The current study explores this question by attempting to predict judgments of 'felt' emotion from physiological responses alone using linear and neural network models. We measured five channels of peripheral physiology from 20 participants – heart rate, respiration, galvanic skin response, and activity in corrugator supercilii and zygomaticus major facial muscles. Using valence and arousal (VA dimensions, participants rated their felt emotion after listening to each of 12 classical music excerpts. After extracting features from the five channels, we examined their correlation with VA ratings, and then performed multiple linear regression to see if a linear relationship between the physiological responses could account for the ratings. Although linear models predicted a significant amount of variance in arousal ratings, they were unable to do so with valence ratings. We then used a neural network to provide a nonlinear account of the ratings. The network was trained on the mean ratings of eight of the 12 excerpts and tested on the remainder. Performance of the neural network confirms that physiological responses alone can be used to predict musically induced emotion. The nonlinear model derived from the neural network was more accurate than linear models derived from multiple linear regression, particularly along the valence dimension. A secondary analysis allowed us to quantify the relative contributions of inputs to the nonlinear model. The study represents a novel approach to understanding the complex relationship between physiological responses and musically induced emotion.

Rolling Force Prediction in Heavy Plate Rolling Based on Uniform Differential Neural Network

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Fei Zhang

2016-01-01

Full Text Available Accurate prediction of the rolling force is critical to assuring the quality of the final product in steel manufacturing. Exit thickness of plate for each pass is calculated from roll gap, mill spring, and predicted roll force. Ideal pass scheduling is dependent on a precise prediction of the roll force in each pass. This paper will introduce a concept that allows obtaining the material model parameters directly from the rolling process on an industrial scale by the uniform differential neural network. On the basis of the characteristics that the uniform distribution can fully characterize the solution space and enhance the diversity of the population, uniformity research on differential evolution operator is made to get improved crossover with uniform distribution. When its original function is transferred with a transfer function, the uniform differential evolution algorithms can quickly solve complex optimization problems. Neural network structure and weights threshold are optimized by uniform differential evolution algorithm, and a uniform differential neural network is formed to improve rolling force prediction accuracy in process control system.

Artificial neural networks for prediction of percentage of water

Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

... Lecture Workshops · Refresher Courses · Symposia · Live Streaming. Home; Journals; Bulletin of Materials Science; Volume 35; Issue 6. Artificial neural networks for prediction of percentage of water absorption of geopolymers produced by waste ashes. Ali Nazari. Volume 35 Issue 6 November 2012 pp 1019-1029 ...

Illusory Motion Reproduced by Deep Neural Networks Trained for Prediction.

Science.gov (United States)

Watanabe, Eiji; Kitaoka, Akiyoshi; Sakamoto, Kiwako; Yasugi, Masaki; Tanaka, Kenta

2018-01-01

The cerebral cortex predicts visual motion to adapt human behavior to surrounding objects moving in real time. Although the underlying mechanisms are still unknown, predictive coding is one of the leading theories. Predictive coding assumes that the brain's internal models (which are acquired through learning) predict the visual world at all times and that errors between the prediction and the actual sensory input further refine the internal models. In the past year, deep neural networks based on predictive coding were reported for a video prediction machine called PredNet. If the theory substantially reproduces the visual information processing of the cerebral cortex, then PredNet can be expected to represent the human visual perception of motion. In this study, PredNet was trained with natural scene videos of the self-motion of the viewer, and the motion prediction ability of the obtained computer model was verified using unlearned videos. We found that the computer model accurately predicted the magnitude and direction of motion of a rotating propeller in unlearned videos. Surprisingly, it also represented the rotational motion for illusion images that were not moving physically, much like human visual perception. While the trained network accurately reproduced the direction of illusory rotation, it did not detect motion components in negative control pictures wherein people do not perceive illusory motion. This research supports the exciting idea that the mechanism assumed by the predictive coding theory is one of basis of motion illusion generation. Using sensory illusions as indicators of human perception, deep neural networks are expected to contribute significantly to the development of brain research.

Artificial neural network models for prediction of intestinal permeability of oligopeptides

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Kim Min-Kook

2007-07-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Oral delivery is a highly desirable property for candidate drugs under development. Computational modeling could provide a quick and inexpensive way to assess the intestinal permeability of a molecule. Although there have been several studies aimed at predicting the intestinal absorption of chemical compounds, there have been no attempts to predict intestinal permeability on the basis of peptide sequence information. To develop models for predicting the intestinal permeability of peptides, we adopted an artificial neural network as a machine-learning algorithm. The positive control data consisted of intestinal barrier-permeable peptides obtained by the peroral phage display technique, and the negative control data were prepared from random sequences. Results The capacity of our models to make appropriate predictions was validated by statistical indicators including sensitivity, specificity, enrichment curve, and the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC curve (the ROC score. The training and test set statistics indicated that our models were of strikingly good quality and could discriminate between permeable and random sequences with a high level of confidence. Conclusion We developed artificial neural network models to predict the intestinal permeabilities of oligopeptides on the basis of peptide sequence information. Both binary and VHSE (principal components score Vectors of Hydrophobic, Steric and Electronic properties descriptors produced statistically significant training models; the models with simple neural network architectures showed slightly greater predictive power than those with complex ones. We anticipate that our models will be applicable to the selection of intestinal barrier-permeable peptides for generating peptide drugs or peptidomimetics.

Predicting wettability behavior of fluorosilica coated metal surface using optimum neural network

Science.gov (United States)

Taghipour-Gorjikolaie, Mehran; Valipour Motlagh, Naser

2018-02-01

The interaction between variables, which are effective on the surface wettability, is very complex to predict the contact angles and sliding angles of liquid drops. In this paper, in order to solve this complexity, artificial neural network was used to develop reliable models for predicting the angles of liquid drops. Experimental data are divided into training data and testing data. By using training data and feed forward structure for the neural network and using particle swarm optimization for training the neural network based models, the optimum models were developed. The obtained results showed that regression index for the proposed models for the contact angles and sliding angles are 0.9874 and 0.9920, respectively. As it can be seen, these values are close to unit and it means the reliable performance of the models. Also, it can be inferred from the results that the proposed model have more reliable performance than multi-layer perceptron and radial basis function based models.

Hybrid neural network for density limit disruption prediction and avoidance on J-TEXT tokamak

Science.gov (United States)

Zheng, W.; Hu, F. R.; Zhang, M.; Chen, Z. Y.; Zhao, X. Q.; Wang, X. L.; Shi, P.; Zhang, X. L.; Zhang, X. Q.; Zhou, Y. N.; Wei, Y. N.; Pan, Y.; J-TEXT team

2018-05-01

Increasing the plasma density is one of the key methods in achieving an efficient fusion reaction. High-density operation is one of the hot topics in tokamak plasmas. Density limit disruptions remain an important issue for safe operation. An effective density limit disruption prediction and avoidance system is the key to avoid density limit disruptions for long pulse steady state operations. An artificial neural network has been developed for the prediction of density limit disruptions on the J-TEXT tokamak. The neural network has been improved from a simple multi-layer design to a hybrid two-stage structure. The first stage is a custom network which uses time series diagnostics as inputs to predict plasma density, and the second stage is a three-layer feedforward neural network to predict the probability of density limit disruptions. It is found that hybrid neural network structure, combined with radiation profile information as an input can significantly improve the prediction performance, especially the average warning time ({{T}warn} ). In particular, the {{T}warn} is eight times better than that in previous work (Wang et al 2016 Plasma Phys. Control. Fusion 58 055014) (from 5 ms to 40 ms). The success rate for density limit disruptive shots is above 90%, while, the false alarm rate for other shots is below 10%. Based on the density limit disruption prediction system and the real-time density feedback control system, the on-line density limit disruption avoidance system has been implemented on the J-TEXT tokamak.

Predicting company growth using logistic regression and neural networks

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Marijana Zekić-Sušac

2016-12-01

Full Text Available The paper aims to establish an efficient model for predicting company growth by leveraging the strengths of logistic regression and neural networks. A real dataset of Croatian companies was used which described the relevant industry sector, financial ratios, income, and assets in the input space, with a dependent binomial variable indicating whether a company had high-growth if it had annualized growth in assets by more than 20% a year over a three-year period. Due to a large number of input variables, factor analysis was performed in the pre -processing stage in order to extract the most important input components. Building an efficient model with a high classification rate and explanatory ability required application of two data mining methods: logistic regression as a parametric and neural networks as a non -parametric method. The methods were tested on the models with and without variable reduction. The classification accuracy of the models was compared using statistical tests and ROC curves. The results showed that neural networks produce a significantly higher classification accuracy in the model when incorporating all available variables. The paper further discusses the advantages and disadvantages of both approaches, i.e. logistic regression and neural networks in modelling company growth. The suggested model is potentially of benefit to investors and economic policy makers as it provides support for recognizing companies with growth potential, especially during times of economic downturn.

Training the Recurrent neural network by the Fuzzy Min-Max algorithm for fault prediction

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zemouri, Ryad; Racoceanu, Daniel; Zerhouni, Noureddine; Minca, Eugenia; Filip, Florin

2009-01-01

In this paper, we present a training technique of a Recurrent Radial Basis Function neural network for fault prediction. We use the Fuzzy Min-Max technique to initialize the k-center of the RRBF neural network. The k-means algorithm is then applied to calculate the centers that minimize the mean square error of the prediction task. The performances of the k-means algorithm are then boosted by the Fuzzy Min-Max technique.

Validation of artificial neural network models for predicting biochemical markers associated with male infertility.

Science.gov (United States)

Vickram, A S; Kamini, A Rao; Das, Raja; Pathy, M Ramesh; Parameswari, R; Archana, K; Sridharan, T B

2016-08-01

Seminal fluid is the secretion from many glands comprised of several organic and inorganic compounds including free amino acids, proteins, fructose, glucosidase, zinc, and other scavenging elements like Mg(2+), Ca(2+), K(+), and Na(+). Therefore, in the view of development of novel approaches and proper diagnosis to male infertility, overall understanding of the biochemical and molecular composition and its role in regulation of sperm quality is highly desirable. Perhaps this can be achieved through artificial intelligence. This study was aimed to elucidate and predict various biochemical markers present in human seminal plasma with three different neural network models. A total of 177 semen samples were collected for this research (both fertile and infertile samples) and immediately processed to prepare a semen analysis report, based on the protocol of the World Health Organization (WHO [2010]). The semen samples were then categorized into oligoasthenospermia (n=35), asthenospermia (n=35), azoospermia (n=22), normospermia (n=34), oligospermia (n=34), and control (n=17). The major biochemical parameters like total protein content, fructose, glucosidase, and zinc content were elucidated by standard protocols. All the biochemical markers were predicted by using three different artificial neural network (ANN) models with semen parameters as inputs. Of the three models, the back propagation neural network model (BPNN) yielded the best results with mean absolute error 0.025, -0.080, 0.166, and -0.057 for protein, fructose, glucosidase, and zinc, respectively. This suggests that BPNN can be used to predict biochemical parameters for the proper diagnosis of male infertility in assisted reproductive technology (ART) centres. AAS: absorption spectroscopy; AI: artificial intelligence; ANN: artificial neural networks; ART: assisted reproductive technology; BPNN: back propagation neural network model; DT: decision tress; MLP: multilayer perceptron; PESA: percutaneous

Prediction of energy demands using neural network with model identification by global optimization

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Yokoyama, Ryohei; Wakui, Tetsuya; Satake, Ryoichi [Department of Mechanical Engineering, Osaka Prefecture University, 1-1 Gakuen-cho, Naka-ku, Sakai, Osaka 599-8531 (Japan)

2009-02-15

To operate energy supply plants properly from the viewpoints of stable energy supply, and energy and cost savings, it is important to predict energy demands accurately as basic conditions. Several methods of predicting energy demands have been proposed, and one of them is to use neural networks. Although local optimization methods such as gradient ones have conventionally been adopted in the back propagation procedure to identify the values of model parameters, they have the significant drawback that they can derive only local optimal solutions. In this paper, a global optimization method called ''Modal Trimming Method'' proposed for non-linear programming problems is adopted to identify the values of model parameters. In addition, the trend and periodic change are first removed from time series data on energy demand, and the converted data is used as the main input to a neural network. Furthermore, predicted values of air temperature and relative humidity are considered as additional inputs to the neural network, and their effect on the prediction of energy demand is investigated. This approach is applied to the prediction of the cooling demand in a building used for a bench mark test of a variety of prediction methods, and its validity and effectiveness are clarified. (author)

Multi-step-prediction of chaotic time series based on co-evolutionary recurrent neural network

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ma Qianli; Zheng Qilun; Peng Hong; Qin Jiangwei; Zhong Tanwei

2008-01-01

This paper proposes a co-evolutionary recurrent neural network (CERNN) for the multi-step-prediction of chaotic time series, it estimates the proper parameters of phase space reconstruction and optimizes the structure of recurrent neural networks by co-evolutionary strategy. The searching space was separated into two subspaces and the individuals are trained in a parallel computational procedure. It can dynamically combine the embedding method with the capability of recurrent neural network to incorporate past experience due to internal recurrence. The effectiveness of CERNN is evaluated by using three benchmark chaotic time series data sets: the Lorenz series, Mackey-Glass series and real-world sun spot series. The simulation results show that CERNN improves the performances of multi-step-prediction of chaotic time series

Comparison of classical statistical methods and artificial neural network in traffic noise prediction

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nedic, Vladimir; Despotovic, Danijela; Cvetanovic, Slobodan; Despotovic, Milan; Babic, Sasa

2014-01-01

Traffic is the main source of noise in urban environments and significantly affects human mental and physical health and labor productivity. Therefore it is very important to model the noise produced by various vehicles. Techniques for traffic noise prediction are mainly based on regression analysis, which generally is not good enough to describe the trends of noise. In this paper the application of artificial neural networks (ANNs) for the prediction of traffic noise is presented. As input variables of the neural network, the proposed structure of the traffic flow and the average speed of the traffic flow are chosen. The output variable of the network is the equivalent noise level in the given time period L eq . Based on these parameters, the network is modeled, trained and tested through a comparative analysis of the calculated values and measured levels of traffic noise using the originally developed user friendly software package. It is shown that the artificial neural networks can be a useful tool for the prediction of noise with sufficient accuracy. In addition, the measured values were also used to calculate equivalent noise level by means of classical methods, and comparative analysis is given. The results clearly show that ANN approach is superior in traffic noise level prediction to any other statistical method. - Highlights: • We proposed an ANN model for prediction of traffic noise. • We developed originally designed user friendly software package. • The results are compared with classical statistical methods. • The results are much better predictive capabilities of ANN model

Comparison of classical statistical methods and artificial neural network in traffic noise prediction

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Nedic, Vladimir, E-mail: vnedic@kg.ac.rs [Faculty of Philology and Arts, University of Kragujevac, Jovana Cvijića bb, 34000 Kragujevac (Serbia); Despotovic, Danijela, E-mail: ddespotovic@kg.ac.rs [Faculty of Economics, University of Kragujevac, Djure Pucara Starog 3, 34000 Kragujevac (Serbia); Cvetanovic, Slobodan, E-mail: slobodan.cvetanovic@eknfak.ni.ac.rs [Faculty of Economics, University of Niš, Trg kralja Aleksandra Ujedinitelja, 18000 Niš (Serbia); Despotovic, Milan, E-mail: mdespotovic@kg.ac.rs [Faculty of Engineering, University of Kragujevac, Sestre Janjic 6, 34000 Kragujevac (Serbia); Babic, Sasa, E-mail: babicsf@yahoo.com [College of Applied Mechanical Engineering, Trstenik (Serbia)

2014-11-15

Traffic is the main source of noise in urban environments and significantly affects human mental and physical health and labor productivity. Therefore it is very important to model the noise produced by various vehicles. Techniques for traffic noise prediction are mainly based on regression analysis, which generally is not good enough to describe the trends of noise. In this paper the application of artificial neural networks (ANNs) for the prediction of traffic noise is presented. As input variables of the neural network, the proposed structure of the traffic flow and the average speed of the traffic flow are chosen. The output variable of the network is the equivalent noise level in the given time period L{sub eq}. Based on these parameters, the network is modeled, trained and tested through a comparative analysis of the calculated values and measured levels of traffic noise using the originally developed user friendly software package. It is shown that the artificial neural networks can be a useful tool for the prediction of noise with sufficient accuracy. In addition, the measured values were also used to calculate equivalent noise level by means of classical methods, and comparative analysis is given. The results clearly show that ANN approach is superior in traffic noise level prediction to any other statistical method. - Highlights: • We proposed an ANN model for prediction of traffic noise. • We developed originally designed user friendly software package. • The results are compared with classical statistical methods. • The results are much better predictive capabilities of ANN model.

How Do Neural Networks Enhance the Predictability of Central European Stock Returns?

OpenAIRE

Jozef Baruník

2008-01-01

In this paper, the author applies neural networks as nonparametric and nonlinear methods to Central European (Czech, Polish, Hungarian, and German) stock market returns modeling. In the first part, he presents the intuition of neural networks and also discusses statistical methods for comparing predictive accuracy, as well as economic significance measures. In the empirical tests, he uses data on the daily and weekly returns of the PX-50, BUX, WIG, and DAX stock exchange indices for the 2000–...

Application of Artificial Neural Network to Predict the use of Runway at Juanda International Airport

Science.gov (United States)

Putra, J. C. P.; Safrilah

2017-06-01

Artificial neural network approaches are useful to solve many complicated problems. It solves a number of problems in various areas such as engineering, medicine, business, manufacturing, etc. This paper presents an application of artificial neural network to predict a runway capacity at Juanda International Airport. An artificial neural network model of backpropagation and multi-layer perceptron is adopted to this research to learning process of runway capacity at Juanda International Airport. The results indicate that the training data is successfully recognizing the certain pattern of runway use at Juanda International Airport. Whereas, testing data indicate vice versa. Finally, it can be concluded that the approach of uniformity data and network architecture is the critical part to determine the accuracy of prediction results.

Prediction of U-Mo dispersion nuclear fuels with Al-Si alloy using artificial neural network

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Susmikanti, Mike; Sulistyo, Jos

2014-01-01

Dispersion nuclear fuels, consisting of U-Mo particles dispersed in an Al-Si matrix, are being developed as fuel for research reactors. The equilibrium relationship for a mixture component can be expressed in the phase diagram. It is important to analyze whether a mixture component is in equilibrium phase or another phase. The purpose of this research it is needed to built the model of the phase diagram, so the mixture component is in the stable or melting condition. Artificial neural network (ANN) is a modeling tool for processes involving multivariable non-linear relationships. The objective of the present work is to develop code based on artificial neural network models of system equilibrium relationship of U-Mo in Al-Si matrix. This model can be used for prediction of type of resulting mixture, and whether the point is on the equilibrium phase or in another phase region. The equilibrium model data for prediction and modeling generated from experimentally data. The artificial neural network with resilient backpropagation method was chosen to predict the dispersion of nuclear fuels U-Mo in Al-Si matrix. This developed code was built with some function in MATLAB. For simulations using ANN, the Levenberg-Marquardt method was also used for optimization. The artificial neural network is able to predict the equilibrium phase or in the phase region. The develop code based on artificial neural network models was built, for analyze equilibrium relationship of U-Mo in Al-Si matrix

Patterning and predicting aquatic macroinvertebrate diversities using artificial neural network

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Park, Y.S.; Verdonschot, P.F.M.; Chon, T.S.; Lek, S.

2003-01-01

A counterpropagation neural network (CPN) was applied to predict species richness (SR) and Shannon diversity index (SH) of benthic macroinvertebrate communities using 34 environmental variables. The data were collected at 664 sites at 23 different water types such as springs, streams, rivers,

Illusory Motion Reproduced by Deep Neural Networks Trained for Prediction

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Eiji Watanabe

2018-03-01

Full Text Available The cerebral cortex predicts visual motion to adapt human behavior to surrounding objects moving in real time. Although the underlying mechanisms are still unknown, predictive coding is one of the leading theories. Predictive coding assumes that the brain's internal models (which are acquired through learning predict the visual world at all times and that errors between the prediction and the actual sensory input further refine the internal models. In the past year, deep neural networks based on predictive coding were reported for a video prediction machine called PredNet. If the theory substantially reproduces the visual information processing of the cerebral cortex, then PredNet can be expected to represent the human visual perception of motion. In this study, PredNet was trained with natural scene videos of the self-motion of the viewer, and the motion prediction ability of the obtained computer model was verified using unlearned videos. We found that the computer model accurately predicted the magnitude and direction of motion of a rotating propeller in unlearned videos. Surprisingly, it also represented the rotational motion for illusion images that were not moving physically, much like human visual perception. While the trained network accurately reproduced the direction of illusory rotation, it did not detect motion components in negative control pictures wherein people do not perceive illusory motion. This research supports the exciting idea that the mechanism assumed by the predictive coding theory is one of basis of motion illusion generation. Using sensory illusions as indicators of human perception, deep neural networks are expected to contribute significantly to the development of brain research.

Prediction of thermal hydraulic parameters in the loss of coolant accident by using artificial neural networks

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Vaziri, N.; Erfani, A.; Monsefi, M.; Hajabri, A.

2008-01-01

In a reactor accident like loss of coolant accident , one or more signals may not be monitored by control panel for some reasons such as interruptions and so on. Therefore a fast alternative method could guarantee the safe and reliable exploration of nuclear power planets. In this study, we used artificial neural network with Elman recurrent structure to predict six thermal hydraulic signals in a loss of coolant accident after upper plenum break. In the prediction procedure, a few previous samples are fed to the artificial neural network and the output value or next time step is estimated by the network output. The Elman recurrent network is trained with the data obtained from the benchmark simulation of loss of coolant accident in VVER. The results reveal that the predicted values follow the real trends well and artificial neural network can be used as a fast alternative prediction tool in loss of coolant accident

Prediction of Austenite Formation Temperatures Using Artificial Neural Networks

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Schulze, P; Schmidl, E; Grund, T; Lampke, T

2016-01-01

For the modeling and design of heat treatments, in consideration of the development/ transformation of the microstructure, different material data depending on the chemical composition, the respective microstructure/phases and the temperature are necessary. Material data are, e.g. the thermal conductivity, heat capacity, thermal expansion and transformation data etc. The quality of thermal simulations strongly depends on the accuracy of the material data. For many materials, the required data - in particular for different microstructures and temperatures - are rare in the literature. In addition, a different chemical composition within the permitted limits of the considered steel alloy cannot be predicted. A solution for this problem is provided by the calculation of material data using Artificial Neural Networks (ANN). In the present study, the start and finish temperatures of the transformation from the bcc lattice to the fcc lattice structure of hypoeutectoid steels are calculated using an Artificial Neural Network. An appropriate database containing different transformation temperatures (austenite formation temperatures) to train the ANN is selected from the literature. In order to find a suitable feedforward network, the network topologies as well as the activation functions of the hidden layers are varied and subsequently evaluated in terms of the prediction accuracy. The transformation temperatures calculated by the ANN exhibit a very good compliance compared to the experimental data. The results show that the prediction performance is even higher compared to classical empirical equations such as Andrews or Brandis. Therefore, it can be assumed that the presented ANN is a convenient tool to distinguish between bcc and fcc phases in hypoeutectoid steels. (paper)

Prediction of Austenite Formation Temperatures Using Artificial Neural Networks

Science.gov (United States)

Schulze, P.; Schmidl, E.; Grund, T.; Lampke, T.

2016-03-01

For the modeling and design of heat treatments, in consideration of the development/ transformation of the microstructure, different material data depending on the chemical composition, the respective microstructure/phases and the temperature are necessary. Material data are, e.g. the thermal conductivity, heat capacity, thermal expansion and transformation data etc. The quality of thermal simulations strongly depends on the accuracy of the material data. For many materials, the required data - in particular for different microstructures and temperatures - are rare in the literature. In addition, a different chemical composition within the permitted limits of the considered steel alloy cannot be predicted. A solution for this problem is provided by the calculation of material data using Artificial Neural Networks (ANN). In the present study, the start and finish temperatures of the transformation from the bcc lattice to the fcc lattice structure of hypoeutectoid steels are calculated using an Artificial Neural Network. An appropriate database containing different transformation temperatures (austenite formation temperatures) to train the ANN is selected from the literature. In order to find a suitable feedforward network, the network topologies as well as the activation functions of the hidden layers are varied and subsequently evaluated in terms of the prediction accuracy. The transformation temperatures calculated by the ANN exhibit a very good compliance compared to the experimental data. The results show that the prediction performance is even higher compared to classical empirical equations such as Andrews or Brandis. Therefore, it can be assumed that the presented ANN is a convenient tool to distinguish between bcc and fcc phases in hypoeutectoid steels.

Predicting Subcontractor Performance Using Web-Based Evolutionary Fuzzy Neural Networks

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Chien-Ho Ko

2013-01-01

Full Text Available Subcontractor performance directly affects project success. The use of inappropriate subcontractors may result in individual work delays, cost overruns, and quality defects throughout the project. This study develops web-based Evolutionary Fuzzy Neural Networks (EFNNs to predict subcontractor performance. EFNNs are a fusion of Genetic Algorithms (GAs, Fuzzy Logic (FL, and Neural Networks (NNs. FL is primarily used to mimic high level of decision-making processes and deal with uncertainty in the construction industry. NNs are used to identify the association between previous performance and future status when predicting subcontractor performance. GAs are optimizing parameters required in FL and NNs. EFNNs encode FL and NNs using floating numbers to shorten the length of a string. A multi-cut-point crossover operator is used to explore the parameter and retain solution legality. Finally, the applicability of the proposed EFNNs is validated using real subcontractors. The EFNNs are evolved using 22 historical patterns and tested using 12 unseen cases. Application results show that the proposed EFNNs surpass FL and NNs in predicting subcontractor performance. The proposed approach improves prediction accuracy and reduces the effort required to predict subcontractor performance, providing field operators with web-based remote access to a reliable, scientific prediction mechanism.

Predicting subcontractor performance using web-based Evolutionary Fuzzy Neural Networks.

Science.gov (United States)

Ko, Chien-Ho

2013-01-01

Subcontractor performance directly affects project success. The use of inappropriate subcontractors may result in individual work delays, cost overruns, and quality defects throughout the project. This study develops web-based Evolutionary Fuzzy Neural Networks (EFNNs) to predict subcontractor performance. EFNNs are a fusion of Genetic Algorithms (GAs), Fuzzy Logic (FL), and Neural Networks (NNs). FL is primarily used to mimic high level of decision-making processes and deal with uncertainty in the construction industry. NNs are used to identify the association between previous performance and future status when predicting subcontractor performance. GAs are optimizing parameters required in FL and NNs. EFNNs encode FL and NNs using floating numbers to shorten the length of a string. A multi-cut-point crossover operator is used to explore the parameter and retain solution legality. Finally, the applicability of the proposed EFNNs is validated using real subcontractors. The EFNNs are evolved using 22 historical patterns and tested using 12 unseen cases. Application results show that the proposed EFNNs surpass FL and NNs in predicting subcontractor performance. The proposed approach improves prediction accuracy and reduces the effort required to predict subcontractor performance, providing field operators with web-based remote access to a reliable, scientific prediction mechanism.

Predicting CYP2C19 Catalytic Parameters for Enantioselective Oxidations Using Artificial Neural Networks and a Chirality Code

Science.gov (United States)

Hartman, Jessica H.; Cothren, Steven D.; Park, Sun-Ha; Yun, Chul-Ho; Darsey, Jerry A.; Miller, Grover P.

2013-01-01

Cytochromes P450 (CYP for isoforms) play a central role in biological processes especially metabolism of chiral molecules; thus, development of computational methods to predict parameters for chiral reactions is important for advancing this field. In this study, we identified the most optimal artificial neural networks using conformation-independent chirality codes to predict CYP2C19 catalytic parameters for enantioselective reactions. Optimization of the neural networks required identifying the most suitable representation of structure among a diverse array of training substrates, normalizing distribution of the corresponding catalytic parameters (kcat, Km, and kcat/Km), and determining the best topology for networks to make predictions. Among different structural descriptors, the use of partial atomic charges according to the CHelpG scheme and inclusion of hydrogens yielded the most optimal artificial neural networks. Their training also required resolution of poorly distributed output catalytic parameters using a Box-Cox transformation. End point leave-one-out cross correlations of the best neural networks revealed that predictions for individual catalytic parameters (kcat and Km) were more consistent with experimental values than those for catalytic efficiency (kcat/Km). Lastly, neural networks predicted correctly enantioselectivity and comparable catalytic parameters measured in this study for previously uncharacterized CYP2C19 substrates, R- and S-propranolol. Taken together, these seminal computational studies for CYP2C19 are the first to predict all catalytic parameters for enantioselective reactions using artificial neural networks and thus provide a foundation for expanding the prediction of cytochrome P450 reactions to chiral drugs, pollutants, and other biologically active compounds. PMID:23673224

Prediction of residual stress for dissimilar metals welding at nuclear power plants using fuzzy neural network models

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Na, Man Gyun; Kim, Jin Weon; Lim, Dong Hyuk

2007-01-01

A fuzzy neural network model is presented to predict residual stress for dissimilar metal welding under various welding conditions. The fuzzy neural network model, which consists of a fuzzy inference system and a neuronal training system, is optimized by a hybrid learning method that combines a genetic algorithm to optimize the membership function parameters and a least squares method to solve the consequent parameters. The data of finite element analysis are divided into four data groups, which are split according to two end-section constraints and two prediction paths. Four fuzzy neural network models were therefore applied to the numerical data obtained from the finite element analysis for the two end-section constraints and the two prediction paths. The fuzzy neural network models were trained with the aid of a data set prepared for training (training data), optimized by means of an optimization data set and verified by means of a test data set that was different (independent) from the training data and the optimization data. The accuracy of fuzzy neural network models is known to be sufficiently accurate for use in an integrity evaluation by predicting the residual stress of dissimilar metal welding zones

Application of clustering analysis in the prediction of photovoltaic power generation based on neural network

Science.gov (United States)

Cheng, K.; Guo, L. M.; Wang, Y. K.; Zafar, M. T.

2017-11-01

In order to select effective samples in the large number of data of PV power generation years and improve the accuracy of PV power generation forecasting model, this paper studies the application of clustering analysis in this field and establishes forecasting model based on neural network. Based on three different types of weather on sunny, cloudy and rainy days, this research screens samples of historical data by the clustering analysis method. After screening, it establishes BP neural network prediction models using screened data as training data. Then, compare the six types of photovoltaic power generation prediction models before and after the data screening. Results show that the prediction model combining with clustering analysis and BP neural networks is an effective method to improve the precision of photovoltaic power generation.

Incidents Prediction in Road Junctions Using Artificial Neural Networks

Science.gov (United States)

Hajji, Tarik; Alami Hassani, Aicha; Ouazzani Jamil, Mohammed

2018-05-01

The implementation of an incident detection system (IDS) is an indispensable operation in the analysis of the road traffics. However the IDS may, in no case, represent an alternative to the classical monitoring system controlled by the human eye. The aim of this work is to increase detection and prediction probability of incidents in camera-monitored areas. Knowing that, these areas are monitored by multiple cameras and few supervisors. Our solution is to use Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) to analyze moving objects trajectories on captured images. We first propose a modelling of the trajectories and their characteristics, after we develop a learning database for valid and invalid trajectories, and then we carry out a comparative study to find the artificial neural network architecture that maximizes the rate of valid and invalid trajectories recognition.

Exchange rate prediction with multilayer perceptron neural network using gold price as external factor

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mohammad Fathian

2012-04-01

Full Text Available In this paper, the problem of predicting the exchange rate time series in the foreign exchange rate market is going to be solved using a time-delayed multilayer perceptron neural network with gold price as external factor. The input for the learning phase of the artificial neural network are the exchange rate data of the last five days plus the gold price in two different currencies of the exchange rate as the external factor for helping the artificial neural network improving its forecast accuracy. The five-day delay has been chosen because of the weekly cyclic behavior of the exchange rate time series with the consideration of two holidays in a week. The result of forecasts are then compared with using the multilayer peceptron neural network without gold price external factor by two most important evaluation techniques in the literature of exchange rate prediction. For the experimental analysis phase, the data of three important exchange rates of EUR/USD, GBP/USD, and USD/JPY are used.

Prediction of SO{sub 2} levels using neural networks

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Belen M. Fernandez de Castro; Jose Manuel Prada Sanchez; Wenceslao Gonzalez Manteiga [and others] [University of Santiago de Compostela, Santiago (Spain). Department of Statistics and Operations Research, Faculty of Mathematics

2003-05-01

The paper presents an adaptation of the air pollution control help system in the neighbourhood of a coal-fired power plant in As Pontes (A Coruna, Spain), property of Endesa Generacion S.A., to the European Council Directive 1999/30/CE. This system contains a statistical prediction made half an hour before the measurement, and it helps the staff in the power plant prevent air quality level episodes. The prediction is made using neural network models. This prediction is compared with one made by a semiparametric model. 11 refs., 6 figs., 4 tabs.

A Nonlinear Autoregressive Exogenous (NARX Neural Network Model for the Prediction of the Daily Direct Solar Radiation

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Zina Boussaada

2018-03-01

Full Text Available The solar photovoltaic (PV energy has an important place among the renewable energy sources. Therefore, several researchers have been interested by its modelling and its prediction, in order to improve the management of the electrical systems which include PV arrays. Among the existing techniques, artificial neural networks have proved their performance in the prediction of the solar radiation. However, the existing neural network models don’t satisfy the requirements of certain specific situations such as the one analyzed in this paper. The aim of this research work is to supply, with electricity, a race sailboat using exclusively renewable sources. The developed solution predicts the direct solar radiation on a horizontal surface. For that, a Nonlinear Autoregressive Exogenous (NARX neural network is used. All the specific conditions of the sailboat operation are taken into account. The results show that the best prediction performance is obtained when the training phase of the neural network is performed periodically.

Development and Validation of a Deep Neural Network Model for Prediction of Postoperative In-hospital Mortality.

Science.gov (United States)

Lee, Christine K; Hofer, Ira; Gabel, Eilon; Baldi, Pierre; Cannesson, Maxime

2018-04-17

The authors tested the hypothesis that deep neural networks trained on intraoperative features can predict postoperative in-hospital mortality. The data used to train and validate the algorithm consists of 59,985 patients with 87 features extracted at the end of surgery. Feed-forward networks with a logistic output were trained using stochastic gradient descent with momentum. The deep neural networks were trained on 80% of the data, with 20% reserved for testing. The authors assessed improvement of the deep neural network by adding American Society of Anesthesiologists (ASA) Physical Status Classification and robustness of the deep neural network to a reduced feature set. The networks were then compared to ASA Physical Status, logistic regression, and other published clinical scores including the Surgical Apgar, Preoperative Score to Predict Postoperative Mortality, Risk Quantification Index, and the Risk Stratification Index. In-hospital mortality in the training and test sets were 0.81% and 0.73%. The deep neural network with a reduced feature set and ASA Physical Status classification had the highest area under the receiver operating characteristics curve, 0.91 (95% CI, 0.88 to 0.93). The highest logistic regression area under the curve was found with a reduced feature set and ASA Physical Status (0.90, 95% CI, 0.87 to 0.93). The Risk Stratification Index had the highest area under the receiver operating characteristics curve, at 0.97 (95% CI, 0.94 to 0.99). Deep neural networks can predict in-hospital mortality based on automatically extractable intraoperative data, but are not (yet) superior to existing methods.

Prediction of ozone tropospheric degradation rate constant of organic compounds by using artificial neural networks

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fatemi, M.H.

2006-01-01

Ozone tropospheric degradation of organic compound is very important in environmental chemistry. The lifetime of organic chemicals in the atmosphere can be calculated from the knowledge of the rate constant of their reaction with free radicals such as OH and NO 3 or O 3 . In the present work, the rate constant for the tropospheric degradation of 137 organic compounds by reaction with ozone, the least widely and successfully modeled degradation process, are predicted by quantitative structure activity relationships modeling based on a variety of theoretical descriptors, which screened and selected by genetic algorithm variable subset selection procedure. These descriptors which can be used as inputs for generated artificial neural networks are; HOMO-LUMO gap, number of double bonds, number of single bonds, maximum net charge on C atom, minimum (>0.1) bond order of C atom and Minimum e-e repulsion of H atom. After generation, optimization and training of artificial neural network, network was used for the prediction of log KO 3 for the validation set. The root mean square error for the neural network calculated log KO 3 for training, prediction and validation set are 0.357, 0.460 and 0.481, respectively, which are smaller than those obtained by multiple linear regressions model (1.217, 0.870 and 0.968, respectively). Results obtained reveal the reliability and good predictivity of neural network model for the prediction of ozone tropospheric degradations rate constant of organic compounds

Prediction of biodiesel ignition delay in a diesel engine using artificial neural networks

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Piloto-Rodríguez, Ramón; Sánchez-Borroto, Yisel

2017-01-01

Ignition delay is one of the most important parameters of the combustion process and have a strong influence in exhaust emissions and engines performance. In the present work, the results of the mathematical modeling of ignition delay through artificial neural networks are shown. The modeling starts from input values that cover thermodynamic variables, engines parameters and biodiesel properties. The model obtained is only useful for biodiesel samples and several neural network algorithms were applied in order to predict the ignition delay. From its correlation coefficient, prediction capability and lowest absolute error, the best model was selected. Among other network’s input parameters, the cetane number was taken into account, also previously predicted by the use of ANN. (author)

Prediction of Negative Conversion Days of Childhood Nephrotic Syndrome Based on the Improved Backpropagation Neural Network with Momentum

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yi-jun Liu

2015-12-01

Full Text Available Childhood nephrotic syndrome is a chronic disease harmful to growth of children. Scientific and accurate prediction of negative conversion days for children with nephrotic syndrome offers potential benefits for treatment of patients and helps achieve better cure effect. In this study, the improved backpropagation neural network with momentum is used for prediction. Momentum speeds up convergence and maintains the generalization performance of the neural network, and therefore overcomes weaknesses of the standard backpropagation algorithm. The three-tier network structure is constructed. Eight indicators including age, lgG, lgA and lgM, etc. are selected for network inputs. The scientific computing software of MATLAB and its neural network tools are used to create model and predict. The training sample of twenty-eight cases is used to train the neural network. The test sample of six typical cases belonging to six different age groups respectively is used to test the predictive model. The low mean absolute error of predictive results is achieved at 0.83. The experimental results of the small-size sample show that the proposed approach is to some degree applicable for the prediction of negative conversion days of childhood nephrotic syndrome.

Critical heat flux prediction by using radial basis function and multilayer perceptron neural networks: A comparison study

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Vaziri, Nima; Hojabri, Alireza; Erfani, Ali; Monsefi, Mehrdad; Nilforooshan, Behnam

2007-01-01

Critical heat flux (CHF) is an important parameter for the design of nuclear reactors. Although many experimental and theoretical researches have been performed, there is not a single correlation to predict CHF because it is influenced by many parameters. These parameters are based on fixed inlet, local and fixed outlet conditions. Artificial neural networks (ANNs) have been applied to a wide variety of different areas such as prediction, approximation, modeling and classification. In this study, two types of neural networks, radial basis function (RBF) and multilayer perceptron (MLP), are trained with the experimental CHF data and their performances are compared. RBF predicts CHF with root mean square (RMS) errors of 0.24%, 7.9%, 0.16% and MLP predicts CHF with RMS errors of 1.29%, 8.31% and 2.71%, in fixed inlet conditions, local conditions and fixed outlet conditions, respectively. The results show that neural networks with RBF structure have superior performance in CHF data prediction over MLP neural networks. The parametric trends of CHF obtained by the trained ANNs are also evaluated and results reported

Artificial neural network based particle size prediction of polymeric nanoparticles.

Science.gov (United States)

Youshia, John; Ali, Mohamed Ehab; Lamprecht, Alf

2017-10-01

Particle size of nanoparticles and the respective polydispersity are key factors influencing their biopharmaceutical behavior in a large variety of therapeutic applications. Predicting these attributes would skip many preliminary studies usually required to optimize formulations. The aim was to build a mathematical model capable of predicting the particle size of polymeric nanoparticles produced by a pharmaceutical polymer of choice. Polymer properties controlling the particle size were identified as molecular weight, hydrophobicity and surface activity, and were quantified by measuring polymer viscosity, contact angle and interfacial tension, respectively. A model was built using artificial neural network including these properties as input with particle size and polydispersity index as output. The established model successfully predicted particle size of nanoparticles covering a range of 70-400nm prepared from other polymers. The percentage bias for particle prediction was 2%, 4% and 6%, for the training, validation and testing data, respectively. Polymer surface activity was found to have the highest impact on the particle size followed by viscosity and finally hydrophobicity. Results of this study successfully highlighted polymer properties affecting particle size and confirmed the usefulness of artificial neural networks in predicting the particle size and polydispersity of polymeric nanoparticles. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Prediction of Full-Scale Propulsion Power using Artificial Neural Networks

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Pedersen, Benjamin Pjedsted; Larsen, Jan

2009-01-01

Full scale measurements of the propulsion power, ship speed, wind speed and direction, sea and air temperature from four different loading conditions, together with hind cast data of wind and sea properties; and noon report data has been used to train an Artificial Neural Network for prediction...

Application of Artificial Neural Networks in Canola Crop Yield Prediction

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

S. J. Sajadi

2014-02-01

Full Text Available Crop yield prediction has an important role in agricultural policies such as specification of the crop price. Crop yield prediction researches have been based on regression analysis. In this research canola yield was predicted using Artificial Neural Networks (ANN using 11 crop year climate data (1998-2009 in Gonbad-e-Kavoos region of Golestan province. ANN inputs were mean weekly rainfall, mean weekly temperature, mean weekly relative humidity and mean weekly sun shine hours and ANN output was canola yield (kg/ha. Multi-Layer Perceptron networks (MLP with Levenberg-Marquardt backpropagation learning algorithm was used for crop yield prediction and Root Mean Square Error (RMSE and square of the Correlation Coefficient (R2 criterions were used to evaluate the performance of the ANN. The obtained results show that the 13-20-1 network has the lowest RMSE equal to 101.235 and maximum value of R2 equal to 0.997 and is suitable for predicting canola yield with climate factors.

Statistical Modeling and Prediction for Tourism Economy Using Dendritic Neural Network.

Science.gov (United States)

Yu, Ying; Wang, Yirui; Gao, Shangce; Tang, Zheng

2017-01-01

With the impact of global internationalization, tourism economy has also been a rapid development. The increasing interest aroused by more advanced forecasting methods leads us to innovate forecasting methods. In this paper, the seasonal trend autoregressive integrated moving averages with dendritic neural network model (SA-D model) is proposed to perform the tourism demand forecasting. First, we use the seasonal trend autoregressive integrated moving averages model (SARIMA model) to exclude the long-term linear trend and then train the residual data by the dendritic neural network model and make a short-term prediction. As the result showed in this paper, the SA-D model can achieve considerably better predictive performances. In order to demonstrate the effectiveness of the SA-D model, we also use the data that other authors used in the other models and compare the results. It also proved that the SA-D model achieved good predictive performances in terms of the normalized mean square error, absolute percentage of error, and correlation coefficient.

Exploring the Combination of Dempster-Shafer Theory and Neural Network for Predicting Trust and Distrust

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Xin Wang

2016-01-01

Full Text Available In social media, trust and distrust among users are important factors in helping users make decisions, dissect information, and receive recommendations. However, the sparsity and imbalance of social relations bring great difficulties and challenges in predicting trust and distrust. Meanwhile, there are numerous inducing factors to determine trust and distrust relations. The relationship among inducing factors may be dependency, independence, and conflicting. Dempster-Shafer theory and neural network are effective and efficient strategies to deal with these difficulties and challenges. In this paper, we study trust and distrust prediction based on the combination of Dempster-Shafer theory and neural network. We firstly analyze the inducing factors about trust and distrust, namely, homophily, status theory, and emotion tendency. Then, we quantify inducing factors of trust and distrust, take these features as evidences, and construct evidence prototype as input nodes of multilayer neural network. Finally, we propose a framework of predicting trust and distrust which uses multilayer neural network to model the implementing process of Dempster-Shafer theory in different hidden layers, aiming to overcome the disadvantage of Dempster-Shafer theory without optimization method. Experimental results on a real-world dataset demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed framework.

Short-term PV/T module temperature prediction based on PCA-RBF neural network

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Jiyong; Zhao, Zhendong; Li, Yisheng; Xiao, Jing; Tang, Yunfeng

2018-02-01

Aiming at the non-linearity and large inertia of temperature control in PV/T system, short-term temperature prediction of PV/T module is proposed, to make the PV/T system controller run forward according to the short-term forecasting situation to optimize control effect. Based on the analysis of the correlation between PV/T module temperature and meteorological factors, and the temperature of adjacent time series, the principal component analysis (PCA) method is used to pre-process the original input sample data. Combined with the RBF neural network theory, the simulation results show that the PCA method makes the prediction accuracy of the network model higher and the generalization performance stronger than that of the RBF neural network without the main component extraction.

The Use of Artificial Neural Networks in Prediction of Congenital CMV Outcome from Sequence Data

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ravit Arav-Boger

2008-01-01

Full Text Available A large number of CMV strains has been reported to circulate in the human population, and the biological significance of these strains is currently an active area of research. The analysis of complex genetic information may be limited using conventional phylogenetic techniques. We constructed artificial neural networks to determine their feasibility in predicting the outcome of congenital CMV disease (defined as presence of CMV symptoms at birth based on two data sets: 54 sequences of CMV gene UL144 obtained from 54 amniotic fluids of women who contracted acute CMV infection during their pregnancy, and 80 sequences of 4 genes (US28, UL144, UL146 and UL147 obtained from urine, saliva or blood of 20 congenitally infected infants that displayed different outcomes at birth. When data from all four genes was used in the 20-infants’ set, the artificial neural network model accurately identified outcome in 90% of cases. While US28 and UL147 had low yield in predicting outcome, UL144 and UL146 predicted outcome in 80% and 85% respectively when used separately. The model identified specific nucleotide positions that were highly relevant to prediction of outcome. The artificial neural network classified genotypes in agreement with classic phylogenetic analysis. We suggest that artificial neural networks can accurately and efficiently analyze sequences obtained from larger cohorts to determine specific outcomes.The ANN training and analysis code is commercially available from Optimal Neural Informatics (Pikesville, MD.

Prediction of Prospective Mathematics Teachers' Academic Success in Entering Graduate Education by Using Back-Propagation Neural Network

Science.gov (United States)

Bahadir, Elif

2016-01-01

The purpose of this study is to examine a neural network based approach to predict achievement in graduate education for Elementary Mathematics prospective teachers. With the help of this study, it can be possible to make an effective prediction regarding the students' achievement in graduate education with Artificial Neural Networks (ANN). Two…

What are artificial neural networks?

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Krogh, Anders

2008-01-01

Artificial neural networks have been applied to problems ranging from speech recognition to prediction of protein secondary structure, classification of cancers and gene prediction. How do they work and what might they be good for? Udgivelsesdato: 2008-Feb......Artificial neural networks have been applied to problems ranging from speech recognition to prediction of protein secondary structure, classification of cancers and gene prediction. How do they work and what might they be good for? Udgivelsesdato: 2008-Feb...

Training algorithms evaluation for artificial neural network to temporal prediction of photovoltaic generation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Arantes Monteiro, Raul Vitor; Caixeta Guimarães, Geraldo; Rocio Castillo, Madeleine; Matheus Moura, Fabrício Augusto; Tamashiro, Márcio Augusto

2016-01-01

Current energy policies are encouraging the connection of power generation based on low-polluting technologies, mainly those using renewable sources, to distribution networks. Hence, it becomes increasingly important to understand technical challenges, facing high penetration of PV systems at the grid, especially considering the effects of intermittence of this source on the power quality, reliability and stability of the electric distribution system. This fact can affect the distribution networks on which they are attached causing overvoltage, undervoltage and frequency oscillations. In order to predict these disturbs, artificial neural networks are used. This article aims to analyze 3 training algorithms used in artificial neural networks for temporal prediction of the generated active power thru photovoltaic panels. As a result it was concluded that the algorithm with the best performance among the 3 analyzed was the Levenberg-Marquadrt.

Residual Deep Convolutional Neural Network Predicts MGMT Methylation Status.

Science.gov (United States)

Korfiatis, Panagiotis; Kline, Timothy L; Lachance, Daniel H; Parney, Ian F; Buckner, Jan C; Erickson, Bradley J

2017-10-01

Predicting methylation of the O6-methylguanine methyltransferase (MGMT) gene status utilizing MRI imaging is of high importance since it is a predictor of response and prognosis in brain tumors. In this study, we compare three different residual deep neural network (ResNet) architectures to evaluate their ability in predicting MGMT methylation status without the need for a distinct tumor segmentation step. We found that the ResNet50 (50 layers) architecture was the best performing model, achieving an accuracy of 94.90% (+/- 3.92%) for the test set (classification of a slice as no tumor, methylated MGMT, or non-methylated). ResNet34 (34 layers) achieved 80.72% (+/- 13.61%) while ResNet18 (18 layers) accuracy was 76.75% (+/- 20.67%). ResNet50 performance was statistically significantly better than both ResNet18 and ResNet34 architectures (p deep neural architectures can be used to predict molecular biomarkers from routine medical images.

Protein distance constraints predicted by neural networks and probability density functions

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Lund, Ole; Frimand, Kenneth; Gorodkin, Jan

1997-01-01

We predict interatomic C-α distances by two independent data driven methods. The first method uses statistically derived probability distributions of the pairwise distance between two amino acids, whilst the latter method consists of a neural network prediction approach equipped with windows taki...... method based on the predicted distances is presented. A homepage with software, predictions and data related to this paper is available at http://www.cbs.dtu.dk/services/CPHmodels/...

Artificial neural networks for prediction of quality in resistance spot welding

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Martin, O.; Lopez, M.; Martin, F.

2006-01-01

An artificial neural network is proposed as a tool for predicting from three parameters (weld time, current intensity and electrode sort) if the quality of a resistance spot weld reaches a certain level or not. The quality id determined by cross tension testing. The fact of reaching this quality level or not is the desired output that goes with each input of the artificial neural network during its supervised learning. The available data set is made up of input/desired output pairs and is split randomly into a training subset (to update synaptic weight values) and a validation subset (to avoid overfitting phenomenon by means of cross validation). (Author) 44 refs

NEURAL METHODS FOR THE FINANCIAL PREDICTION

OpenAIRE

Jerzy Balicki; Piotr Dryja; Waldemar Korłub; Piotr Przybyłek; Maciej Tyszka; Marcin Zadroga; Marcin Zakidalski

2016-01-01

Artificial neural networks can be used to predict share investment on the stock market, assess the reliability of credit client or predicting banking crises. Moreover, this paper discusses the principles of cooperation neural network algorithms with evolutionary method, and support vector machines. In addition, a reference is made to other methods of artificial intelligence, which are used in finance prediction.

NEURAL METHODS FOR THE FINANCIAL PREDICTION

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jerzy Balicki

2016-06-01

Full Text Available Artificial neural networks can be used to predict share investment on the stock market, assess the reliability of credit client or predicting banking crises. Moreover, this paper discusses the principles of cooperation neural network algorithms with evolutionary method, and support vector machines. In addition, a reference is made to other methods of artificial intelligence, which are used in finance prediction.

A comparison between wavelet based static and dynamic neural network approaches for runoff prediction

Science.gov (United States)

Shoaib, Muhammad; Shamseldin, Asaad Y.; Melville, Bruce W.; Khan, Mudasser Muneer

2016-04-01

In order to predict runoff accurately from a rainfall event, the multilayer perceptron type of neural network models are commonly used in hydrology. Furthermore, the wavelet coupled multilayer perceptron neural network (MLPNN) models has also been found superior relative to the simple neural network models which are not coupled with wavelet. However, the MLPNN models are considered as static and memory less networks and lack the ability to examine the temporal dimension of data. Recurrent neural network models, on the other hand, have the ability to learn from the preceding conditions of the system and hence considered as dynamic models. This study for the first time explores the potential of wavelet coupled time lagged recurrent neural network (TLRNN) models for runoff prediction using rainfall data. The Discrete Wavelet Transformation (DWT) is employed in this study to decompose the input rainfall data using six of the most commonly used wavelet functions. The performance of the simple and the wavelet coupled static MLPNN models is compared with their counterpart dynamic TLRNN models. The study found that the dynamic wavelet coupled TLRNN models can be considered as alternative to the static wavelet MLPNN models. The study also investigated the effect of memory depth on the performance of static and dynamic neural network models. The memory depth refers to how much past information (lagged data) is required as it is not known a priori. The db8 wavelet function is found to yield the best results with the static MLPNN models and with the TLRNN models having small memory depths. The performance of the wavelet coupled TLRNN models with large memory depths is found insensitive to the selection of the wavelet function as all wavelet functions have similar performance.

Predicting hourly cooling load in the building: A comparison of support vector machine and different artificial neural networks

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Li Qiong; Meng Qinglin; Cai Jiejin; Yoshino, Hiroshi; Mochida, Akashi

2009-01-01

This study presents four modeling techniques for the prediction of hourly cooling load in the building. In addition to the traditional back propagation neural network (BPNN), the radial basis function neural network (RBFNN), general regression neural network (GRNN) and support vector machine (SVM) are considered. All the prediction models have been applied to an office building in Guangzhou, China. Evaluation of the prediction accuracy of the four models is based on the root mean square error (RMSE) and mean relative error (MRE). The simulation results demonstrate that the four discussed models can be effective for building cooling load prediction. The SVM and GRNN methods can achieve better accuracy and generalization than the BPNN and RBFNN methods

Artificial neural network approach to predicting engine-out emissions and performance parameters of a turbo charged diesel engine

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Özener Orkun

2013-01-01

Full Text Available This study details the artificial neural network (ANN modelling of a diesel engine to predict the torque, power, brake-specific fuel consumption and pollutant emissions, including carbon dioxide, carbon monoxide, nitrogen oxides, total hydrocarbons and filter smoke number. To collect data for training and testing the neural network, experiments were performed on a four cylinder, four stroke compression ignition engine. A total of 108 test points were run on a dynamometer. For the first part of this work, a parameter packet was used as the inputs for the neural network, and satisfactory regression was found with the outputs (over ~95%, excluding total hydrocarbons. The second stage of this work addressed developing new networks with additional inputs for predicting the total hydrocarbons, and the regression was raised from 75 % to 90 %. This study shows that the ANN approach can be used for accurately predicting characteristic values of an internal combustion engine and that the neural network performance can be increased using additional related input data.

Neural Networks for Non-linear Control

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Sørensen, O.

1994-01-01

This paper describes how a neural network, structured as a Multi Layer Perceptron, is trained to predict, simulate and control a non-linear process.......This paper describes how a neural network, structured as a Multi Layer Perceptron, is trained to predict, simulate and control a non-linear process....

Data Mining on Romanian Stock Market Using Neural Networks for Price Prediction

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Magdalena Daniela NEMES

2013-01-01

Full Text Available Predicting future prices by using time series forecasting models has become a relevant trading strategy for most stock market players. Intuition and speculation are no longer reliable as many new trading strategies based on artificial intelligence emerge. Data mining represents a good source of information, as it ensures data processing in a convenient manner. Neural networks are considered useful prediction models when designing forecasting strategies. In this paper we present a series of neural networks designed for stock exchange rates forecasting applied on three Romanian stocks traded on the Bucharest Stock Exchange (BSE. A multistep ahead strategy was used in order to predict short-time price fluctuations. Later, the findings of our study can be integrated with an intelligent multi-agent system model which uses data mining and data stream processing techniques for helping users in the decision making process of buying or selling stocks.

QSAR modelling using combined simple competitive learning networks and RBF neural networks.

Science.gov (United States)

Sheikhpour, R; Sarram, M A; Rezaeian, M; Sheikhpour, E

2018-04-01

The aim of this study was to propose a QSAR modelling approach based on the combination of simple competitive learning (SCL) networks with radial basis function (RBF) neural networks for predicting the biological activity of chemical compounds. The proposed QSAR method consisted of two phases. In the first phase, an SCL network was applied to determine the centres of an RBF neural network. In the second phase, the RBF neural network was used to predict the biological activity of various phenols and Rho kinase (ROCK) inhibitors. The predictive ability of the proposed QSAR models was evaluated and compared with other QSAR models using external validation. The results of this study showed that the proposed QSAR modelling approach leads to better performances than other models in predicting the biological activity of chemical compounds. This indicated the efficiency of simple competitive learning networks in determining the centres of RBF neural networks.

Neural Network Predictions of the 4-Quadrant Wageningen Propeller Series (CD-ROM)

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

Roddy, Robert F; Hess, David E; Faller, Will

2006-01-01

.... This report describes the development of feedforward neural network (FFNN) predictions of four-quadrant thrust and torque behavior for the Wageningen B-Screw Series of propellers and for two Wageningen ducted propeller series...

Predictive Behavior of a Computational Foot/Ankle Model through Artificial Neural Networks.

Science.gov (United States)

Chande, Ruchi D; Hargraves, Rosalyn Hobson; Ortiz-Robinson, Norma; Wayne, Jennifer S

2017-01-01

Computational models are useful tools to study the biomechanics of human joints. Their predictive performance is heavily dependent on bony anatomy and soft tissue properties. Imaging data provides anatomical requirements while approximate tissue properties are implemented from literature data, when available. We sought to improve the predictive capability of a computational foot/ankle model by optimizing its ligament stiffness inputs using feedforward and radial basis function neural networks. While the former demonstrated better performance than the latter per mean square error, both networks provided reasonable stiffness predictions for implementation into the computational model.

Statistical Modeling and Prediction for Tourism Economy Using Dendritic Neural Network

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ying Yu

2017-01-01

Full Text Available With the impact of global internationalization, tourism economy has also been a rapid development. The increasing interest aroused by more advanced forecasting methods leads us to innovate forecasting methods. In this paper, the seasonal trend autoregressive integrated moving averages with dendritic neural network model (SA-D model is proposed to perform the tourism demand forecasting. First, we use the seasonal trend autoregressive integrated moving averages model (SARIMA model to exclude the long-term linear trend and then train the residual data by the dendritic neural network model and make a short-term prediction. As the result showed in this paper, the SA-D model can achieve considerably better predictive performances. In order to demonstrate the effectiveness of the SA-D model, we also use the data that other authors used in the other models and compare the results. It also proved that the SA-D model achieved good predictive performances in terms of the normalized mean square error, absolute percentage of error, and correlation coefficient.

Time series prediction by feedforward neural networks - is it difficult?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rosen-Zvi, Michal; Kanter, Ido; Kinzel, Wolfgang

2003-01-01

The difficulties that a neural network faces when trying to learn from a quasi-periodic time series are studied analytically using a teacher-student scenario where the random input is divided into two macroscopic regions with different variances, 1 and 1/γ 2 (γ >> 1). The generalization error is found to decrease as ε g ∝ exp(-α/γ 2 ), where α is the number of examples per input dimension. In contradiction to this very slow vanishing generalization error, the next output prediction is found to be almost free of mistakes. This picture is consistent with learning quasi-periodic time series produced by feedforward neural networks, which is dominated by enhanced components of the Fourier spectrum of the input. Simulation results are in good agreement with the analytical results

Evaluation and prediction of solar radiation for energy management based on neural networks

Science.gov (United States)

Aldoshina, O. V.; Van Tai, Dinh

2017-08-01

Currently, there is a high rate of distribution of renewable energy sources and distributed power generation based on intelligent networks; therefore, meteorological forecasts are particularly useful for planning and managing the energy system in order to increase its overall efficiency and productivity. The application of artificial neural networks (ANN) in the field of photovoltaic energy is presented in this article. Implemented in this study, two periodically repeating dynamic ANS, that are the concentration of the time delay of a neural network (CTDNN) and the non-linear autoregression of a network with exogenous inputs of the NAEI, are used in the development of a model for estimating and daily forecasting of solar radiation. ANN show good productivity, as reliable and accurate models of daily solar radiation are obtained. This allows to successfully predict the photovoltaic output power for this installation. The potential of the proposed method for controlling the energy of the electrical network is shown using the example of the application of the NAEI network for predicting the electric load.

Neural networks for link prediction in realistic biomedical graphs: a multi-dimensional evaluation of graph embedding-based approaches.

Science.gov (United States)

Crichton, Gamal; Guo, Yufan; Pyysalo, Sampo; Korhonen, Anna

2018-05-21

Link prediction in biomedical graphs has several important applications including predicting Drug-Target Interactions (DTI), Protein-Protein Interaction (PPI) prediction and Literature-Based Discovery (LBD). It can be done using a classifier to output the probability of link formation between nodes. Recently several works have used neural networks to create node representations which allow rich inputs to neural classifiers. Preliminary works were done on this and report promising results. However they did not use realistic settings like time-slicing, evaluate performances with comprehensive metrics or explain when or why neural network methods outperform. We investigated how inputs from four node representation algorithms affect performance of a neural link predictor on random- and time-sliced biomedical graphs of real-world sizes (∼ 6 million edges) containing information relevant to DTI, PPI and LBD. We compared the performance of the neural link predictor to those of established baselines and report performance across five metrics. In random- and time-sliced experiments when the neural network methods were able to learn good node representations and there was a negligible amount of disconnected nodes, those approaches outperformed the baselines. In the smallest graph (∼ 15,000 edges) and in larger graphs with approximately 14% disconnected nodes, baselines such as Common Neighbours proved a justifiable choice for link prediction. At low recall levels (∼ 0.3) the approaches were mostly equal, but at higher recall levels across all nodes and average performance at individual nodes, neural network approaches were superior. Analysis showed that neural network methods performed well on links between nodes with no previous common neighbours; potentially the most interesting links. Additionally, while neural network methods benefit from large amounts of data, they require considerable amounts of computational resources to utilise them. Our results indicate

Artificial neural network modeling of jatropha oil fueled diesel engine for emission predictions

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ganapathy Thirunavukkarasu

2009-01-01

Full Text Available This paper deals with artificial neural network modeling of diesel engine fueled with jatropha oil to predict the unburned hydrocarbons, smoke, and NOx emissions. The experimental data from the literature have been used as the data base for the proposed neural network model development. For training the networks, the injection timing, injector opening pressure, plunger diameter, and engine load are used as the input layer. The outputs are hydrocarbons, smoke, and NOx emissions. The feed forward back propagation learning algorithms with two hidden layers are used in the networks. For each output a different network is developed with required topology. The artificial neural network models for hydrocarbons, smoke, and NOx emissions gave R2 values of 0.9976, 0.9976, and 0.9984 and mean percent errors of smaller than 2.7603, 4.9524, and 3.1136, respectively, for training data sets, while the R2 values of 0.9904, 0.9904, and 0.9942, and mean percent errors of smaller than 6.5557, 6.1072, and 4.4682, respectively, for testing data sets. The best linear fit of regression to the artificial neural network models of hydrocarbons, smoke, and NOx emissions gave the correlation coefficient values of 0.98, 0.995, and 0.997, respectively.

Generalized Predictive Control and Neural Generalized Predictive Control

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sadhana CHIDRAWAR

2008-12-01

Full Text Available As Model Predictive Control (MPC relies on the predictive Control using a multilayer feed forward network as the plants linear model is presented. In using Newton-Raphson as the optimization algorithm, the number of iterations needed for convergence is significantly reduced from other techniques. This paper presents a detailed derivation of the Generalized Predictive Control and Neural Generalized Predictive Control with Newton-Raphson as minimization algorithm. Taking three separate systems, performances of the system has been tested. Simulation results show the effect of neural network on Generalized Predictive Control. The performance comparison of this three system configurations has been given in terms of ISE and IAE.

Prediction of Groundwater Arsenic Contamination using Geographic Information System and Artificial Neural Network

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Md. Moqbul Hossain

2013-01-01

Full Text Available Ground water arsenic contamination is a well known health and environmental problem in Bangladesh. Sources of this heavy metal are known to be geogenic, however, the processes of its release into groundwater are poorly understood phenomena. In quest of mitigation of the problem it is necessary to predict probable contamination before it causes any damage to human health. Hence our research has been carried out to find the factor relations of arsenic contamination and develop an arsenic contamination prediction model. Researchers have generally agreed that the elevated concentration of arsenic is affected by several factors such as soil reaction (pH, organic matter content, geology, iron content, etc. However, the variability of concentration within short lateral and vertical intervals, and the inter-relationships of variables among themselves, make the statistical analyses highly non-linear and difficult to converge with a meaningful relationship. Artificial Neural Networks (ANN comes in handy for such a black box type problem. This research uses Back propagation Neural Networks (BPNN to train and validate the data derived from Geographic Information System (GIS spatial distribution grids. The neural network architecture with (6-20-1 pattern was able to predict the arsenic concentration with reasonable accuracy.

Accurate prediction of the dew points of acidic combustion gases by using an artificial neural network model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

ZareNezhad, Bahman; Aminian, Ali

2011-01-01

This paper presents a new approach based on using an artificial neural network (ANN) model for predicting the acid dew points of the combustion gases in process and power plants. The most important acidic combustion gases namely, SO 3 , SO 2 , NO 2 , HCl and HBr are considered in this investigation. Proposed Network is trained using the Levenberg-Marquardt back propagation algorithm and the hyperbolic tangent sigmoid activation function is applied to calculate the output values of the neurons of the hidden layer. According to the network's training, validation and testing results, a three layer neural network with nine neurons in the hidden layer is selected as the best architecture for accurate prediction of the acidic combustion gases dew points over wide ranges of acid and moisture concentrations. The proposed neural network model can have significant application in predicting the condensation temperatures of different acid gases to mitigate the corrosion problems in stacks, pollution control devices and energy recovery systems.

ChemNet: A Transferable and Generalizable Deep Neural Network for Small-Molecule Property Prediction

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Goh, Garrett B.; Siegel, Charles M.; Vishnu, Abhinav; Hodas, Nathan O.

2017-12-08

With access to large datasets, deep neural networks through representation learning have been able to identify patterns from raw data, achieving human-level accuracy in image and speech recognition tasks. However, in chemistry, availability of large standardized and labelled datasets is scarce, and with a multitude of chemical properties of interest, chemical data is inherently small and fragmented. In this work, we explore transfer learning techniques in conjunction with the existing Chemception CNN model, to create a transferable and generalizable deep neural network for small-molecule property prediction. Our latest model, ChemNet learns in a semi-supervised manner from inexpensive labels computed from the ChEMBL database. When fine-tuned to the Tox21, HIV and FreeSolv dataset, which are 3 separate chemical tasks that ChemNet was not originally trained on, we demonstrate that ChemNet exceeds the performance of existing Chemception models, contemporary MLP models that trains on molecular fingerprints, and it matches the performance of the ConvGraph algorithm, the current state-of-the-art. Furthermore, as ChemNet has been pre-trained on a large diverse chemical database, it can be used as a universal “plug-and-play” deep neural network, which accelerates the deployment of deep neural networks for the prediction of novel small-molecule chemical properties.

Prediction of dissolved oxygen in the Mediterranean Sea along Gaza, Palestine - an artificial neural network approach.

Science.gov (United States)

Zaqoot, Hossam Adel; Ansari, Abdul Khalique; Unar, Mukhtiar Ali; Khan, Shaukat Hyat

2009-01-01

Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) are flexible tools which are being used increasingly to predict and forecast water resources variables. The human activities in areas surrounding enclosed and semi-enclosed seas such as the Mediterranean Sea always produce in the long term a strong environmental impact in the form of coastal and marine degradation. The presence of dissolved oxygen is essential for the survival of most organisms in the water bodies. This paper is concerned with the use of ANNs - Multilayer Perceptron (MLP) and Radial Basis Function neural networks for predicting the next fortnight's dissolved oxygen concentrations in the Mediterranean Sea water along Gaza. MLP and Radial Basis Function (RBF) neural networks are trained and developed with reference to five important oceanographic variables including water temperature, wind velocity, turbidity, pH and conductivity. These variables are considered as inputs of the network. The data sets used in this study consist of four years and collected from nine locations along Gaza coast. The network performance has been tested with different data sets and the results show satisfactory performance. Prediction results prove that neural network approach has good adaptability and extensive applicability for modelling the dissolved oxygen in the Mediterranean Sea along Gaza. We hope that the established model will help in assisting the local authorities in developing plans and policies to reduce the pollution along Gaza coastal waters to acceptable levels.

CNNcon: improved protein contact maps prediction using cascaded neural networks.

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Wang Ding

Full Text Available BACKGROUNDS: Despite continuing progress in X-ray crystallography and high-field NMR spectroscopy for determination of three-dimensional protein structures, the number of unsolved and newly discovered sequences grows much faster than that of determined structures. Protein modeling methods can possibly bridge this huge sequence-structure gap with the development of computational science. A grand challenging problem is to predict three-dimensional protein structure from its primary structure (residues sequence alone. However, predicting residue contact maps is a crucial and promising intermediate step towards final three-dimensional structure prediction. Better predictions of local and non-local contacts between residues can transform protein sequence alignment to structure alignment, which can finally improve template based three-dimensional protein structure predictors greatly. METHODS: CNNcon, an improved multiple neural networks based contact map predictor using six sub-networks and one final cascade-network, was developed in this paper. Both the sub-networks and the final cascade-network were trained and tested with their corresponding data sets. While for testing, the target protein was first coded and then input to its corresponding sub-networks for prediction. After that, the intermediate results were input to the cascade-network to finish the final prediction. RESULTS: The CNNcon can accurately predict 58.86% in average of contacts at a distance cutoff of 8 Å for proteins with lengths ranging from 51 to 450. The comparison results show that the present method performs better than the compared state-of-the-art predictors. Particularly, the prediction accuracy keeps steady with the increase of protein sequence length. It indicates that the CNNcon overcomes the thin density problem, with which other current predictors have trouble. This advantage makes the method valuable to the prediction of long length proteins. As a result, the effective

Prediction of Weld Penetration in FCAW of HSLA steel using Artificial Neural Networks

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Asl, Y. Dadgar; Mostafa, N. B.; Panahizadeh, V. R.; Seyedkashi, S. M. H.

2011-01-01

Flux-cored arc welding (FCAW) is a semiautomatic or automatic arc welding process that requires a continuously-fed consumable tubular electrode containing a flux. The main FCAW process parameters affecting the depth of penetration are welding current, arc voltage, nozzle-to-work distance, torch angle and welding speed. Shallow depth of penetration may contribute to failure of a welded structure since penetration determines the stress-carrying capacity of a welded joint. To avoid such occurrences; the welding process parameters influencing the weld penetration must be properly selected to obtain an acceptable weld penetration and hence a high quality joint. Artificial neural networks (ANN), also called neural networks (NN), are computational models used to express complex non-linear relationships between input and output data. In this paper, artificial neural network (ANN) method is used to predict the effects of welding current, arc voltage, nozzle-to-work distance, torch angle and welding speed on weld penetration depth in gas shielded FCAW of a grade of high strength low alloy steel. 32 experimental runs were carried out using the bead-on-plate welding technique. Weld penetrations were measured and on the basis of these 32 sets of experimental data, a feed-forward back-propagation neural network was created. 28 sets of the experiments were used as the training data and the remaining 4 sets were used for the testing phase of the network. The ANN has one hidden layer with eight neurons and is trained after 840 iterations. The comparison between the experimental results and ANN results showed that the trained network could predict the effects of the FCAW process parameters on weld penetration adequately.

Hybrid Clustering-GWO-NARX neural network technique in predicting stock price

Science.gov (United States)

Das, Debashish; Safa Sadiq, Ali; Mirjalili, Seyedali; Noraziah, A.

2017-09-01

Prediction of stock price is one of the most challenging tasks due to nonlinear nature of the stock data. Though numerous attempts have been made to predict the stock price by applying various techniques, yet the predicted price is not always accurate and even the error rate is high to some extent. Consequently, this paper endeavours to determine an efficient stock prediction strategy by implementing a combinatorial method of Grey Wolf Optimizer (GWO), Clustering and Non Linear Autoregressive Exogenous (NARX) Technique. The study uses stock data from prominent stock market i.e. New York Stock Exchange (NYSE), NASDAQ and emerging stock market i.e. Malaysian Stock Market (Bursa Malaysia), Dhaka Stock Exchange (DSE). It applies K-means clustering algorithm to determine the most promising cluster, then MGWO is used to determine the classification rate and finally the stock price is predicted by applying NARX neural network algorithm. The prediction performance gained through experimentation is compared and assessed to guide the investors in making investment decision. The result through this technique is indeed promising as it has shown almost precise prediction and improved error rate. We have applied the hybrid Clustering-GWO-NARX neural network technique in predicting stock price. We intend to work with the effect of various factors in stock price movement and selection of parameters. We will further investigate the influence of company news either positive or negative in stock price movement. We would be also interested to predict the Stock indices.

Prediction of strain values in reinforcements and concrete of a RC frame using neural networks

Science.gov (United States)

Vafaei, Mohammadreza; Alih, Sophia C.; Shad, Hossein; Falah, Ali; Halim, Nur Hajarul Falahi Abdul

2018-03-01

The level of strain in structural elements is an important indicator for the presence of damage and its intensity. Considering this fact, often structural health monitoring systems employ strain gauges to measure strains in critical elements. However, because of their sensitivity to the magnetic fields, inadequate long-term durability especially in harsh environments, difficulties in installation on existing structures, and maintenance cost, installation of strain gauges is not always possible for all structural components. Therefore, a reliable method that can accurately estimate strain values in critical structural elements is necessary for damage identification. In this study, a full-scale test was conducted on a planar RC frame to investigate the capability of neural networks for predicting the strain values. Two neural networks each of which having a single hidden layer was trained to relate the measured rotations and vertical displacements of the frame to the strain values measured at different locations of the frame. Results of trained neural networks indicated that they accurately estimated the strain values both in reinforcements and concrete. In addition, the trained neural networks were capable of predicting strains for the unseen input data set.

Predictive Behavior of a Computational Foot/Ankle Model through Artificial Neural Networks

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ruchi D. Chande

2017-01-01

Full Text Available Computational models are useful tools to study the biomechanics of human joints. Their predictive performance is heavily dependent on bony anatomy and soft tissue properties. Imaging data provides anatomical requirements while approximate tissue properties are implemented from literature data, when available. We sought to improve the predictive capability of a computational foot/ankle model by optimizing its ligament stiffness inputs using feedforward and radial basis function neural networks. While the former demonstrated better performance than the latter per mean square error, both networks provided reasonable stiffness predictions for implementation into the computational model.

An improved advertising CTR prediction approach based on the fuzzy deep neural network.

Science.gov (United States)

Jiang, Zilong; Gao, Shu; Li, Mingjiang

2018-01-01

Combining a deep neural network with fuzzy theory, this paper proposes an advertising click-through rate (CTR) prediction approach based on a fuzzy deep neural network (FDNN). In this approach, fuzzy Gaussian-Bernoulli restricted Boltzmann machine (FGBRBM) is first applied to input raw data from advertising datasets. Next, fuzzy restricted Boltzmann machine (FRBM) is used to construct the fuzzy deep belief network (FDBN) with the unsupervised method layer by layer. Finally, fuzzy logistic regression (FLR) is utilized for modeling the CTR. The experimental results show that the proposed FDNN model outperforms several baseline models in terms of both data representation capability and robustness in advertising click log datasets with noise.

ATHENS SEASONAL VARIATION OF GROUND RESISTANCE PREDICTION USING NEURAL NETWORKS

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S. Anbazhagan

2015-10-01

Full Text Available The objective in ground resistance is to attain the most minimal ground safety esteem conceivable that bodes well monetarily and physically. An application of artificial neural networks (ANN to presage and relegation has been growing rapidly due to sundry unique characteristics of ANN models. A decent forecast is able to capture the dubiousness associated with those ground resistance. A portion of the key instabilities are soil composition, moisture content, temperature, ground electrodes and spacing of the electrodes. Propelled by this need, this paper endeavors to develop a generalized regression neural network (GRNN to predict the ground resistance. The GRNN has a single design parameter and expeditious learning and efficacious modeling for nonlinear time series. The precision of the forecast is applied to the Athens seasonal variation of ground resistance that shows the efficacy of the proposed approach.

Experimental method to predict avalanches based on neural networks

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V. V. Zhdanov

2016-01-01

Full Text Available The article presents results of experimental use of currently available statistical methods to classify the avalanche‑dangerous precipitations and snowfalls in the Kishi Almaty river basin. The avalanche service of Kazakhstan uses graphical methods for prediction of avalanches developed by I.V. Kondrashov and E.I. Kolesnikov. The main objective of this work was to develop a modern model that could be used directly at the avalanche stations. Classification of winter precipitations into dangerous snowfalls and non‑dangerous ones was performed by two following ways: the linear discriminant function (canonical analysis and artificial neural networks. Observational data on weather and avalanches in the gorge Kishi Almaty in the gorge Kishi Almaty were used as a training sample. Coefficients for the canonical variables were calculated by the software «Statistica» (Russian version 6.0, and then the necessary formula had been constructed. The accuracy of the above classification was 96%. Simulator by the authors L.N. Yasnitsky and F.М. Cherepanov was used to learn the neural networks. The trained neural network demonstrated 98% accuracy of the classification. Prepared statistical models are recommended to be tested at the snow‑avalanche stations. Results of the tests will be used for estimation of the model quality and its readiness for the operational work. In future, we plan to apply these models for classification of the avalanche danger by the five‑point international scale.

Improving protein disorder prediction by deep bidirectional long short-term memory recurrent neural networks.

Science.gov (United States)

Hanson, Jack; Yang, Yuedong; Paliwal, Kuldip; Zhou, Yaoqi

2017-03-01

Capturing long-range interactions between structural but not sequence neighbors of proteins is a long-standing challenging problem in bioinformatics. Recently, long short-term memory (LSTM) networks have significantly improved the accuracy of speech and image classification problems by remembering useful past information in long sequential events. Here, we have implemented deep bidirectional LSTM recurrent neural networks in the problem of protein intrinsic disorder prediction. The new method, named SPOT-Disorder, has steadily improved over a similar method using a traditional, window-based neural network (SPINE-D) in all datasets tested without separate training on short and long disordered regions. Independent tests on four other datasets including the datasets from critical assessment of structure prediction (CASP) techniques and >10 000 annotated proteins from MobiDB, confirmed SPOT-Disorder as one of the best methods in disorder prediction. Moreover, initial studies indicate that the method is more accurate in predicting functional sites in disordered regions. These results highlight the usefulness combining LSTM with deep bidirectional recurrent neural networks in capturing non-local, long-range interactions for bioinformatics applications. SPOT-disorder is available as a web server and as a standalone program at: http://sparks-lab.org/server/SPOT-disorder/index.php . j.hanson@griffith.edu.au or yuedong.yang@griffith.edu.au or yaoqi.zhou@griffith.edu.au. Supplementary data is available at Bioinformatics online. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com

Deep Bidirectional and Unidirectional LSTM Recurrent Neural Network for Network-wide Traffic Speed Prediction

OpenAIRE

Cui, Zhiyong; Ke, Ruimin; Wang, Yinhai

2018-01-01

Short-term traffic forecasting based on deep learning methods, especially long short-term memory (LSTM) neural networks, has received much attention in recent years. However, the potential of deep learning methods in traffic forecasting has not yet fully been exploited in terms of the depth of the model architecture, the spatial scale of the prediction area, and the predictive power of spatial-temporal data. In this paper, a deep stacked bidirectional and unidirectional LSTM (SBU- LSTM) neura...

Sensitivity Analysis of Wavelet Neural Network Model for Short-Term Traffic Volume Prediction

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Jinxing Shen

2013-01-01

Full Text Available In order to achieve a more accurate and robust traffic volume prediction model, the sensitivity of wavelet neural network model (WNNM is analyzed in this study. Based on real loop detector data which is provided by traffic police detachment of Maanshan, WNNM is discussed with different numbers of input neurons, different number of hidden neurons, and traffic volume for different time intervals. The test results show that the performance of WNNM depends heavily on network parameters and time interval of traffic volume. In addition, the WNNM with 4 input neurons and 6 hidden neurons is the optimal predictor with more accuracy, stability, and adaptability. At the same time, a much better prediction record will be achieved with the time interval of traffic volume are 15 minutes. In addition, the optimized WNNM is compared with the widely used back-propagation neural network (BPNN. The comparison results indicated that WNNM produce much lower values of MAE, MAPE, and VAPE than BPNN, which proves that WNNM performs better on short-term traffic volume prediction.

Using Long-Short-Term-Memory Recurrent Neural Networks to Predict Aviation Engine Vibrations

Science.gov (United States)

ElSaid, AbdElRahman Ahmed

This thesis examines building viable Recurrent Neural Networks (RNN) using Long Short Term Memory (LSTM) neurons to predict aircraft engine vibrations. The different networks are trained on a large database of flight data records obtained from an airline containing flights that suffered from excessive vibration. RNNs can provide a more generalizable and robust method for prediction over analytical calculations of engine vibration, as analytical calculations must be solved iteratively based on specific empirical engine parameters, and this database contains multiple types of engines. Further, LSTM RNNs provide a "memory" of the contribution of previous time series data which can further improve predictions of future vibration values. LSTM RNNs were used over traditional RNNs, as those suffer from vanishing/exploding gradients when trained with back propagation. The study managed to predict vibration values for 1, 5, 10, and 20 seconds in the future, with 2.84% 3.3%, 5.51% and 10.19% mean absolute error, respectively. These neural networks provide a promising means for the future development of warning systems so that suitable actions can be taken before the occurrence of excess vibration to avoid unfavorable situations during flight.

Artificial neural network implementation of a near-ideal error prediction controller

Science.gov (United States)

Mcvey, Eugene S.; Taylor, Lynore Denise

1992-01-01

A theory has been developed at the University of Virginia which explains the effects of including an ideal predictor in the forward loop of a linear error-sampled system. It has been shown that the presence of this ideal predictor tends to stabilize the class of systems considered. A prediction controller is merely a system which anticipates a signal or part of a signal before it actually occurs. It is understood that an exact prediction controller is physically unrealizable. However, in systems where the input tends to be repetitive or limited, (i.e., not random) near ideal prediction is possible. In order for the controller to act as a stability compensator, the predictor must be designed in a way that allows it to learn the expected error response of the system. In this way, an unstable system will become stable by including the predicted error in the system transfer function. Previous and current prediction controller include pattern recognition developments and fast-time simulation which are applicable to the analysis of linear sampled data type systems. The use of pattern recognition techniques, along with a template matching scheme, has been proposed as one realizable type of near-ideal prediction. Since many, if not most, systems are repeatedly subjected to similar inputs, it was proposed that an adaptive mechanism be used to 'learn' the correct predicted error response. Once the system has learned the response of all the expected inputs, it is necessary only to recognize the type of input with a template matching mechanism and then to use the correct predicted error to drive the system. Suggested here is an alternate approach to the realization of a near-ideal error prediction controller, one designed using Neural Networks. Neural Networks are good at recognizing patterns such as system responses, and the back-propagation architecture makes use of a template matching scheme. In using this type of error prediction, it is assumed that the system error

Lifetime prediction for organic coating under alternating hydrostatic pressure by artificial neural network

Science.gov (United States)

Tian, Wenliang; Meng, Fandi; Liu, Li; Li, Ying; Wang, Fuhui

2017-01-01

A concept for prediction of organic coatings, based on the alternating hydrostatic pressure (AHP) accelerated tests, has been presented. An AHP accelerated test with different pressure values has been employed to evaluate coating degradation. And a back-propagation artificial neural network (BP-ANN) has been established to predict the service property and the service lifetime of coatings. The pressure value (P), immersion time (t) and service property (impedance modulus |Z|) are utilized as the parameters of the network. The average accuracies of the predicted service property and immersion time by the established network are 98.6% and 84.8%, respectively. The combination of accelerated test and prediction method by BP-ANN is promising to evaluate and predict coating property used in deep sea. PMID:28094340

Research on the Prediction Model of CPU Utilization Based on ARIMA-BP Neural Network

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Wang Jina

2016-01-01

Full Text Available The dynamic deployment technology of the virtual machine is one of the current cloud computing research focuses. The traditional methods mainly work after the degradation of the service performance that usually lag. To solve the problem a new prediction model based on the CPU utilization is constructed in this paper. A reference offered by the new prediction model of the CPU utilization is provided to the VM dynamic deployment process which will speed to finish the deployment process before the degradation of the service performance. By this method it not only ensure the quality of services but also improve the server performance and resource utilization. The new prediction method of the CPU utilization based on the ARIMA-BP neural network mainly include four parts: preprocess the collected data, build the predictive model of ARIMA-BP neural network, modify the nonlinear residuals of the time series by the BP prediction algorithm and obtain the prediction results by analyzing the above data comprehensively.

SPARTA+: a modest improvement in empirical NMR chemical shift prediction by means of an artificial neural network

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Shen Yang; Bax, Ad

2010-01-01

NMR chemical shifts provide important local structural information for proteins and are key in recently described protein structure generation protocols. We describe a new chemical shift prediction program, SPARTA+, which is based on artificial neural networking. The neural network is trained on a large carefully pruned database, containing 580 proteins for which high-resolution X-ray structures and nearly complete backbone and 13 C β chemical shifts are available. The neural network is trained to establish quantitative relations between chemical shifts and protein structures, including backbone and side-chain conformation, H-bonding, electric fields and ring-current effects. The trained neural network yields rapid chemical shift prediction for backbone and 13 C β atoms, with standard deviations of 2.45, 1.09, 0.94, 1.14, 0.25 and 0.49 ppm for δ 15 N, δ 13 C', δ 13 C α , δ 13 C β , δ 1 H α and δ 1 H N , respectively, between the SPARTA+ predicted and experimental shifts for a set of eleven validation proteins. These results represent a modest but consistent improvement (2-10%) over the best programs available to date, and appear to be approaching the limit at which empirical approaches can predict chemical shifts.

APPLICATION OF ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORKS FOR PREDICTION OF AIR POLLUTION LEVELS IN ENVIRONMENTAL MONITORING

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Małgorzata Pawul

2016-09-01

Full Text Available Recently, a lot of attention was paid to the improvement of methods which are used to air quality forecasting. Artificial neural networks can be applied to model these problems. Their advantage is that they can solve the problem in the conditions of incomplete information, without the knowledge of the analytical relationship between the input and output data. In this paper we applied artificial neural networks to predict the PM 10 concentrations as factors determining the occurrence of smog phenomena. To create these networks we used meteorological data and concentrations of PM 10. The data were recorded in 2014 and 2015 at three measuring stations operating in Krakow under the State Environmental Monitoring. The best results were obtained by three-layer perceptron with back-propagation algorithm. The neural networks received a good fit in all cases.

Application of neural networks for the prediction of multidirectional magnetostriction

CERN Document Server

Baumgartinger, N; Pfützner, H; Krismanic, G

2000-01-01

This paper describes attempts to use artificial neural networks (ANNs) for the prediction of magnetostriction (MS) characteristics of transformer core materials. In this first approach, the ANNs were trained with data from a rotational single-sheet tester to predict MS in rolling direction (r.d.) as a function of material grade, amplitude and shape of multidirectional magnetisation as well as the level of additional mechanical stress. It is shown that ANNs are able to forecast the corresponding relative MS changes in an approximate way.

Temperature prediction model of asphalt pavement in cold regions based on an improved BP neural network

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Xu, Bo; Dan, Han-Cheng; Li, Liang

2017-01-01

Highlights: • Pavement temperature prediction model is presented with improved BP neural network. • Dynamic and static methods are presented to predict pavement temperature. • Pavement temperature can be excellently predicted in next 3 h. - Abstract: Ice cover on pavement threatens traffic safety, and pavement temperature is the main factor used to determine whether the wet pavement is icy or not. In this paper, a temperature prediction model of the pavement in winter is established by introducing an improved Back Propagation (BP) neural network model. Before the application of the BP neural network model, many efforts were made to eliminate chaos and determine the regularity of temperature on the pavement surface (e.g., analyze the regularity of diurnal and monthly variations of pavement temperature). New dynamic and static prediction methods are presented by improving the algorithms to intelligently overcome the prediction inaccuracy at the change point of daily temperature. Furthermore, some scenarios have been compared for different dates and road sections to verify the reliability of the prediction model. According to the analysis results, the daily pavement temperatures can be accurately predicted for the next 3 h from the time of prediction by combining the dynamic and static prediction methods. The presented method in this paper can provide technical references for temperature prediction of the pavement and the development of an early-warning system for icy pavements in cold regions.

Prediction of Force Measurements of a Microbend Sensor Based on an Artificial Neural Network

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Kemal Fidanboylu

2009-09-01

Full Text Available Artificial neural network (ANN based prediction of the response of a microbend fiber optic sensor is presented. To the best of our knowledge no similar work has been previously reported in the literature. Parallel corrugated plates with three deformation cycles, 6 mm thickness of the spacer material and 16 mm mechanical periodicity between deformations were used in the microbend sensor. Multilayer Perceptron (MLP with different training algorithms, Radial Basis Function (RBF network and General Regression Neural Network (GRNN are used as ANN models in this work. All of these models can predict the sensor responses with considerable errors. RBF has the best performance with the smallest mean square error (MSE values of training and test results. Among the MLP algorithms and GRNN the Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm has good results. These models successfully predict the sensor responses, hence ANNs can be used as useful tool in the design of more robust fiber optic sensors.

Neural network modeling for near wall turbulent flow

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Milano, Michele; Koumoutsakos, Petros

2002-01-01

A neural network methodology is developed in order to reconstruct the near wall field in a turbulent flow by exploiting flow fields provided by direct numerical simulations. The results obtained from the neural network methodology are compared with the results obtained from prediction and reconstruction using proper orthogonal decomposition (POD). Using the property that the POD is equivalent to a specific linear neural network, a nonlinear neural network extension is presented. It is shown that for a relatively small additional computational cost nonlinear neural networks provide us with improved reconstruction and prediction capabilities for the near wall velocity fields. Based on these results advantages and drawbacks of both approaches are discussed with an outlook toward the development of near wall models for turbulence modeling and control

Analysis of the uranium price predicted to 24 months, implementing neural networks and the Monte Carlo method like predictive tools

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Esquivel E, J.; Ramirez S, J. R.; Palacios H, J. C.

2011-11-01

The present work shows predicted prices of the uranium, using a neural network. The importance of predicting financial indexes of an energy resource, in this case, allows establishing budgetary measures, as well as the costs of the resource to medium period. The uranium is part of the main energy generating fuels and as such, its price rebounds in the financial analyses, due to this is appealed to predictive methods to obtain an outline referent to the financial behaviour that will have in a certain time. In this study, two methodologies are used for the prediction of the uranium price: the Monte Carlo method and the neural networks. These methods allow predicting the indexes of monthly costs, for a two years period, starting from the second bimonthly of 2011. For the prediction the uranium costs are used, registered from the year 2005. (Author)

Neural Networks in Control Applications

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Sørensen, O.

The intention of this report is to make a systematic examination of the possibilities of applying neural networks in those technical areas, which are familiar to a control engineer. In other words, the potential of neural networks in control applications is given higher priority than a detailed...... study of the networks themselves. With this end in view the following restrictions have been made: - Amongst numerous neural network structures, only the Multi Layer Perceptron (a feed-forward network) is applied. - Amongst numerous training algorithms, only four algorithms are examined, all...... in a recursive form (sample updating). The simplest is the Back Probagation Error Algorithm, and the most complex is the recursive Prediction Error Method using a Gauss-Newton search direction. - Over-fitting is often considered to be a serious problem when training neural networks. This problem is specifically...

Damage Level Prediction of Reinforced Concrete Building Based on Earthquake Time History Using Artificial Neural Network

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Suryanita Reni

2017-01-01

Full Text Available The strong motion earthquake could cause the building damage in case of the building not considered in the earthquake design of the building. The study aims to predict the damage-level of building due to earthquake using Artificial Neural Networks method. The building model is a reinforced concrete building with ten floors and height between floors is 3.6 m. The model building received a load of the earthquake based on nine earthquake time history records. Each time history scaled to 0,5g, 0,75g, and 1,0g. The Artificial Neural Networks are designed in 4 architectural models using the MATLAB program. Model 1 used the displacement, velocity, and acceleration as input and Model 2 used the displacement only as the input. Model 3 used the velocity as input, and Model 4 used the acceleration just as input. The output of the Neural Networks is the damage level of the building with the category of Safe (1, Immediate Occupancy (2, Life Safety (3 or in a condition of Collapse Prevention (4. According to the results, Neural Network models have the prediction rate of the damage level between 85%-95%. Therefore, one of the solutions for analyzing the structural responses and the damage level promptly and efficiently when the earthquake occurred is by using Artificial Neural Network

The Prediction of Bandwidth On Need Computer Network Through Artificial Neural Network Method of Backpropagation

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ikhthison Mekongga

2014-02-01

Full Text Available The need for bandwidth has been increasing recently. This is because the development of internet infrastructure is also increasing so that we need an economic and efficient provider system. This can be achieved through good planning and a proper system. The prediction of the bandwidth consumption is one of the factors that support the planning for an efficient internet service provider system. Bandwidth consumption is predicted using ANN. ANN is an information processing system which has similar characteristics as the biologic al neural network.  ANN  is  chosen  to  predict  the  consumption  of  the  bandwidth  because  ANN  has  good  approachability  to  non-linearity.  The variable used in ANN is the historical load data. A bandwidth consumption information system was built using neural networks  with a backpropagation algorithm to make the use of bandwidth more efficient in the future both in the rental rate of the bandwidth and in the usage of the bandwidth.Keywords: Forecasting, Bandwidth, Backpropagation

Application of radial basis function neural network to predict soil sorption partition coefficient using topological descriptors.

Science.gov (United States)

Sabour, Mohammad Reza; Moftakhari Anasori Movahed, Saman

2017-02-01

The soil sorption partition coefficient logK oc is an indispensable parameter that can be used in assessing the environmental risk of organic chemicals. In order to predict soil sorption partition coefficient for different and even unknown compounds in a fast and accurate manner, a radial basis function neural network (RBFNN) model was developed. Eight topological descriptors of 800 organic compounds were used as inputs of the model. These 800 organic compounds were chosen from a large and very diverse data set. Generalized Regression Neural Network (GRNN) was utilized as the function in this neural network model due to its capability to adapt very quickly. Hence, it can be used to predict logK oc for new chemicals, as well. Out of total data set, 560 organic compounds were used for training and 240 to test efficiency of the model. The obtained results indicate that the model performance is very well. The correlation coefficients (R2) for training and test sets were 0.995 and 0.933, respectively. The root-mean square errors (RMSE) were 0.2321 for training set and 0.413 for test set. As the results for both training and test set are extremely satisfactory, the proposed neural network model can be employed not only to predict logK oc of known compounds, but also to be adaptive for prediction of this value precisely for new products that enter the market each year. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Identification and prediction of dynamic systems using an interactively recurrent self-evolving fuzzy neural network.

Science.gov (United States)

Lin, Yang-Yin; Chang, Jyh-Yeong; Lin, Chin-Teng

2013-02-01

This paper presents a novel recurrent fuzzy neural network, called an interactively recurrent self-evolving fuzzy neural network (IRSFNN), for prediction and identification of dynamic systems. The recurrent structure in an IRSFNN is formed as an external loops and internal feedback by feeding the rule firing strength of each rule to others rules and itself. The consequent part in the IRSFNN is composed of a Takagi-Sugeno-Kang (TSK) or functional-link-based type. The proposed IRSFNN employs a functional link neural network (FLNN) to the consequent part of fuzzy rules for promoting the mapping ability. Unlike a TSK-type fuzzy neural network, the FLNN in the consequent part is a nonlinear function of input variables. An IRSFNNs learning starts with an empty rule base and all of the rules are generated and learned online through a simultaneous structure and parameter learning. An on-line clustering algorithm is effective in generating fuzzy rules. The consequent update parameters are derived by a variable-dimensional Kalman filter algorithm. The premise and recurrent parameters are learned through a gradient descent algorithm. We test the IRSFNN for the prediction and identification of dynamic plants and compare it to other well-known recurrent FNNs. The proposed model obtains enhanced performance results.

Prediction of Optimal Design and Deflection of Space Structures Using Neural Networks

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Reza Kamyab Moghadas

2012-01-01

Full Text Available The main aim of the present work is to determine the optimal design and maximum deflection of double layer grids spending low computational cost using neural networks. The design variables of the optimization problem are cross-sectional area of the elements as well as the length of the span and height of the structures. In this paper, a number of double layer grids with various random values of length and height are selected and optimized by simultaneous perturbation stochastic approximation algorithm. Then, radial basis function (RBF and generalized regression (GR neural networks are trained to predict the optimal design and maximum deflection of the structures. The numerical results demonstrate the efficiency of the proposed methodology.

A fast-running core prediction model based on neural networks for load-following operations in a soluble boron-free reactor

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Jang, Jin-wook [Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, P.O. Box 105, Yusong, Daejon 305-600 (Korea, Republic of)], E-mail: Jinwook@kaeri.re.kr; Seong, Seung-Hwan [Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, P.O. Box 105, Yusong, Daejon 305-600 (Korea, Republic of)], E-mail: shseong@kaeri.re.kr; Lee, Un-Chul [Department of Nuclear Engineering, Seoul National University, Shinlim-Dong, Gwanak-Gu, Seoul 151-742 (Korea, Republic of)

2007-09-15

A fast prediction model for load-following operations in a soluble boron-free reactor has been proposed, which can predict the core status when three or more control rod groups are moved at a time. This prediction model consists of two multilayer feedforward neural network models to retrieve the axial offset and the reactivity, and compensation models to compensate for the reactivity and axial offset arising from the xenon transient. The neural network training data were generated by taking various overlaps among the control rod groups into consideration for training the neural network models, and the accuracy of the constructed neural network models was verified. Validation results of predicting load following operations for a soluble boron-free reactor show that this model has a good capability to predict the positions of the control rods for sustaining the criticality of a core during load-following operations to ensure that the tolerable axial offset band is not exceeded and it can provide enough corresponding time for the operators to take the necessary actions to prevent a deviation from the tolerable operating band.

A fast-running core prediction model based on neural networks for load-following operations in a soluble boron-free reactor

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jang, Jin-wook; Seong, Seung-Hwan; Lee, Un-Chul

2007-01-01

A fast prediction model for load-following operations in a soluble boron-free reactor has been proposed, which can predict the core status when three or more control rod groups are moved at a time. This prediction model consists of two multilayer feedforward neural network models to retrieve the axial offset and the reactivity, and compensation models to compensate for the reactivity and axial offset arising from the xenon transient. The neural network training data were generated by taking various overlaps among the control rod groups into consideration for training the neural network models, and the accuracy of the constructed neural network models was verified. Validation results of predicting load following operations for a soluble boron-free reactor show that this model has a good capability to predict the positions of the control rods for sustaining the criticality of a core during load-following operations to ensure that the tolerable axial offset band is not exceeded and it can provide enough corresponding time for the operators to take the necessary actions to prevent a deviation from the tolerable operating band

The Use of Artificial Neural Network for Prediction of Dissolution Kinetics

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H. Elçiçek

2014-01-01

Full Text Available Colemanite is a preferred boron mineral in industry, such as boric acid production, fabrication of heat resistant glass, and cleaning agents. Dissolution of the mineral is one of the most important processes for these industries. In this study, dissolution of colemanite was examined in water saturated with carbon dioxide solutions. Also, prediction of dissolution rate was determined using artificial neural networks (ANNs which are based on the multilayered perceptron. Reaction temperature, total pressure, stirring speed, solid/liquid ratio, particle size, and reaction time were selected as input parameters to predict the dissolution rate. Experimental dataset was used to train multilayer perceptron (MLP networks to allow for prediction of dissolution kinetics. Developing ANNs has provided highly accurate predictions in comparison with an obtained mathematical model used through regression method. We conclude that ANNs may be a preferred alternative approach instead of conventional statistical methods for prediction of boron minerals.

Local Dynamics in Trained Recurrent Neural Networks.

Science.gov (United States)

Rivkind, Alexander; Barak, Omri

2017-06-23

Learning a task induces connectivity changes in neural circuits, thereby changing their dynamics. To elucidate task-related neural dynamics, we study trained recurrent neural networks. We develop a mean field theory for reservoir computing networks trained to have multiple fixed point attractors. Our main result is that the dynamics of the network's output in the vicinity of attractors is governed by a low-order linear ordinary differential equation. The stability of the resulting equation can be assessed, predicting training success or failure. As a consequence, networks of rectified linear units and of sigmoidal nonlinearities are shown to have diametrically different properties when it comes to learning attractors. Furthermore, a characteristic time constant, which remains finite at the edge of chaos, offers an explanation of the network's output robustness in the presence of variability of the internal neural dynamics. Finally, the proposed theory predicts state-dependent frequency selectivity in the network response.

Local Dynamics in Trained Recurrent Neural Networks

Science.gov (United States)

Rivkind, Alexander; Barak, Omri

2017-06-01

Learning a task induces connectivity changes in neural circuits, thereby changing their dynamics. To elucidate task-related neural dynamics, we study trained recurrent neural networks. We develop a mean field theory for reservoir computing networks trained to have multiple fixed point attractors. Our main result is that the dynamics of the network's output in the vicinity of attractors is governed by a low-order linear ordinary differential equation. The stability of the resulting equation can be assessed, predicting training success or failure. As a consequence, networks of rectified linear units and of sigmoidal nonlinearities are shown to have diametrically different properties when it comes to learning attractors. Furthermore, a characteristic time constant, which remains finite at the edge of chaos, offers an explanation of the network's output robustness in the presence of variability of the internal neural dynamics. Finally, the proposed theory predicts state-dependent frequency selectivity in the network response.

SPARTA+: a modest improvement in empirical NMR chemical shift prediction by means of an artificial neural network

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Shen Yang; Bax, Ad, E-mail: bax@nih.go [National Institutes of Health, Laboratory of Chemical Physics, National Institute of Diabetes and Digestive and Kidney Diseases (United States)

2010-09-15

NMR chemical shifts provide important local structural information for proteins and are key in recently described protein structure generation protocols. We describe a new chemical shift prediction program, SPARTA+, which is based on artificial neural networking. The neural network is trained on a large carefully pruned database, containing 580 proteins for which high-resolution X-ray structures and nearly complete backbone and {sup 13}C{sup {beta}} chemical shifts are available. The neural network is trained to establish quantitative relations between chemical shifts and protein structures, including backbone and side-chain conformation, H-bonding, electric fields and ring-current effects. The trained neural network yields rapid chemical shift prediction for backbone and {sup 13}C{sup {beta}} atoms, with standard deviations of 2.45, 1.09, 0.94, 1.14, 0.25 and 0.49 ppm for {delta}{sup 15}N, {delta}{sup 13}C', {delta}{sup 13}C{sup {alpha}}, {delta}{sup 13}C{sup {beta}}, {delta}{sup 1}H{sup {alpha}} and {delta}{sup 1}H{sup N}, respectively, between the SPARTA+ predicted and experimental shifts for a set of eleven validation proteins. These results represent a modest but consistent improvement (2-10%) over the best programs available to date, and appear to be approaching the limit at which empirical approaches can predict chemical shifts.

Towards building a neural network model for predicting pile static load test curves

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Alzo’ubi A. K.

2018-01-01

Full Text Available In the United Arab Emirates, Continuous Flight Auger piles are the most widely used type of deep foundation. To test the pile behaviour, the Static Load Test is routinely conducted in the field by increasing the dead load while monitoring the displacement. Although the test is reliable, it is expensive to conduct. This test is usually conducted in the UAE to verify the pile capacity and displacement as the load increase and decreases in two cycles. In this paper we will utilize the Artificial Neural Network approach to build a model that can predict a complete Static Load Pile test. We will show that by integrating the pile configuration, soil properties, and ground water table in one artificial neural network model, the Static Load Test can be predicted with confidence. We believe that based on this approach, the model is able to predict the entire pile load test from start to end. The suggested approach is an excellent tool to reduce the cost associated with such expensive tests or to predict pile’s performance ahead of the actual test.

Predicting the Deflections of Micromachined Electrostatic Actuators Using Artificial Neural Network (ANN

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Hing Wah LEE

2009-03-01

Full Text Available In this study, a general purpose Artificial Neural Network (ANN model based on the feed-forward back-propagation (FFBP algorithm has been used to predict the deflections of a micromachined structures actuated electrostatically under different loadings and geometrical parameters. A limited range of simulation results obtained via CoventorWare™ numerical software will be used initially to train the neural network via back-propagation algorithm. The micromachined structures considered in the analyses are diaphragm, fixed-fixed beams and cantilevers. ANN simulation results are compared with results obtained via CoventorWare™ simulations and existing analytical work for validation purpose. The proposed ANN model accurately predicts the deflections of the micromachined structures with great reduction of simulation efforts, establishing the method superiority. This method can be extended for applications in other sensors particularly for modeling sensors applying electrostatic actuation which are difficult in nature due to the inherent non-linearity of the electro-mechanical coupling response.

Human Splice-Site Prediction with Deep Neural Networks.

Science.gov (United States)

Naito, Tatsuhiko

2018-04-18

Accurate splice-site prediction is essential to delineate gene structures from sequence data. Several computational techniques have been applied to create a system to predict canonical splice sites. For classification tasks, deep neural networks (DNNs) have achieved record-breaking results and often outperformed other supervised learning techniques. In this study, a new method of splice-site prediction using DNNs was proposed. The proposed system receives an input sequence data and returns an answer as to whether it is splice site. The length of input is 140 nucleotides, with the consensus sequence (i.e., "GT" and "AG" for the donor and acceptor sites, respectively) in the middle. Each input sequence model is applied to the pretrained DNN model that determines the probability that an input is a splice site. The model consists of convolutional layers and bidirectional long short-term memory network layers. The pretraining and validation were conducted using the data set tested in previously reported methods. The performance evaluation results showed that the proposed method can outperform the previous methods. In addition, the pattern learned by the DNNs was visualized as position frequency matrices (PFMs). Some of PFMs were very similar to the consensus sequence. The trained DNN model and the brief source code for the prediction system are uploaded. Further improvement will be achieved following the further development of DNNs.

A Comparison of Energy Consumption Prediction Models Based on Neural Networks of a Bioclimatic Building

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Hamid R. Khosravani

2016-01-01

Full Text Available Energy consumption has been increasing steadily due to globalization and industrialization. Studies have shown that buildings are responsible for the biggest proportion of energy consumption; for example in European Union countries, energy consumption in buildings represents around 40% of the total energy consumption. In order to control energy consumption in buildings, different policies have been proposed, from utilizing bioclimatic architectures to the use of predictive models within control approaches. There are mainly three groups of predictive models including engineering, statistical and artificial intelligence models. Nowadays, artificial intelligence models such as neural networks and support vector machines have also been proposed because of their high potential capabilities of performing accurate nonlinear mappings between inputs and outputs in real environments which are not free of noise. The main objective of this paper is to compare a neural network model which was designed utilizing statistical and analytical methods, with a group of neural network models designed benefiting from a multi objective genetic algorithm. Moreover, the neural network models were compared to a naïve autoregressive baseline model. The models are intended to predict electric power demand at the Solar Energy Research Center (Centro de Investigación en Energía SOLar or CIESOL in Spanish bioclimatic building located at the University of Almeria, Spain. Experimental results show that the models obtained from the multi objective genetic algorithm (MOGA perform comparably to the model obtained through a statistical and analytical approach, but they use only 0.8% of data samples and have lower model complexity.

Neural Generalized Predictive Control of a non-linear Process

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Sørensen, Paul Haase; Nørgård, Peter Magnus; Ravn, Ole

1998-01-01

The use of neural network in non-linear control is made difficult by the fact the stability and robustness is not guaranteed and that the implementation in real time is non-trivial. In this paper we introduce a predictive controller based on a neural network model which has promising stability qu...... detail and discuss the implementation difficulties. The neural generalized predictive controller is tested on a pneumatic servo sys-tem.......The use of neural network in non-linear control is made difficult by the fact the stability and robustness is not guaranteed and that the implementation in real time is non-trivial. In this paper we introduce a predictive controller based on a neural network model which has promising stability...... qualities. The controller is a non-linear version of the well-known generalized predictive controller developed in linear control theory. It involves minimization of a cost function which in the present case has to be done numerically. Therefore, we develop the numerical algorithms necessary in substantial...

Copula Entropy coupled with Wavelet Neural Network Model for Hydrological Prediction

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Yin; Yue, JiGuang; Liu, ShuGuang; Wang, Li

2018-02-01

Artificial Neural network(ANN) has been widely used in hydrological forecasting. in this paper an attempt has been made to find an alternative method for hydrological prediction by combining Copula Entropy(CE) with Wavelet Neural Network(WNN), CE theory permits to calculate mutual information(MI) to select Input variables which avoids the limitations of the traditional linear correlation(LCC) analysis. Wavelet analysis can provide the exact locality of any changes in the dynamical patterns of the sequence Coupled with ANN Strong non-linear fitting ability. WNN model was able to provide a good fit with the hydrological data. finally, the hybrid model(CE+WNN) have been applied to daily water level of Taihu Lake Basin, and compared with CE ANN, LCC WNN and LCC ANN. Results showed that the hybrid model produced better results in estimating the hydrograph properties than the latter models.

Convolutional neural network architectures for predicting DNA–protein binding

Science.gov (United States)

Zeng, Haoyang; Edwards, Matthew D.; Liu, Ge; Gifford, David K.

2016-01-01

Motivation: Convolutional neural networks (CNN) have outperformed conventional methods in modeling the sequence specificity of DNA–protein binding. Yet inappropriate CNN architectures can yield poorer performance than simpler models. Thus an in-depth understanding of how to match CNN architecture to a given task is needed to fully harness the power of CNNs for computational biology applications. Results: We present a systematic exploration of CNN architectures for predicting DNA sequence binding using a large compendium of transcription factor datasets. We identify the best-performing architectures by varying CNN width, depth and pooling designs. We find that adding convolutional kernels to a network is important for motif-based tasks. We show the benefits of CNNs in learning rich higher-order sequence features, such as secondary motifs and local sequence context, by comparing network performance on multiple modeling tasks ranging in difficulty. We also demonstrate how careful construction of sequence benchmark datasets, using approaches that control potentially confounding effects like positional or motif strength bias, is critical in making fair comparisons between competing methods. We explore how to establish the sufficiency of training data for these learning tasks, and we have created a flexible cloud-based framework that permits the rapid exploration of alternative neural network architectures for problems in computational biology. Availability and Implementation: All the models analyzed are available at http://cnn.csail.mit.edu. Contact: gifford@mit.edu Supplementary information: Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online. PMID:27307608

Artificial neural network as the tool in prediction rheological features of raw minced meat.

Science.gov (United States)

Balejko, Jerzy A; Nowak, Zbigniew; Balejko, Edyta

2012-01-01

The aim of the study was to elaborate a method of modelling and forecasting rheological features which could be applied to raw minced meat at the stage of mixture preparation with a given ingredient composition. The investigated material contained pork and beef meat, pork fat, fat substitutes, ice and curing mixture in various proportions. Seven texture parameters were measured for each sample of raw minced meat. The data obtained were processed using the artificial neural network module in Statistica 9.0 software. The model that reached the lowest training error was a multi-layer perceptron MLP with three neural layers and architecture 7:7-11-7:7. Correlation coefficients between the experimental and calculated values in training, verification and testing subsets were similar and rather high (around 0.65) which indicated good network performance. High percentage of the total variance explained in PCA analysis (73.5%) indicated that the percentage composition of raw minced meat can be successfully used in the prediction of its rheological features. Statistical analysis of the results revealed, that artificial neural network model is able to predict rheological parameters and thus a complete texture profile of raw minced meat.

Rule extraction from minimal neural networks for credit card screening.

Science.gov (United States)

Setiono, Rudy; Baesens, Bart; Mues, Christophe

2011-08-01

While feedforward neural networks have been widely accepted as effective tools for solving classification problems, the issue of finding the best network architecture remains unresolved, particularly so in real-world problem settings. We address this issue in the context of credit card screening, where it is important to not only find a neural network with good predictive performance but also one that facilitates a clear explanation of how it produces its predictions. We show that minimal neural networks with as few as one hidden unit provide good predictive accuracy, while having the added advantage of making it easier to generate concise and comprehensible classification rules for the user. To further reduce model size, a novel approach is suggested in which network connections from the input units to this hidden unit are removed by a very straightaway pruning procedure. In terms of predictive accuracy, both the minimized neural networks and the rule sets generated from them are shown to compare favorably with other neural network based classifiers. The rules generated from the minimized neural networks are concise and thus easier to validate in a real-life setting.

Precursors predicted by artificial neural networks for mass balance calculations: Quantifying hydrothermal alteration in volcanic rocks

Science.gov (United States)

Trépanier, Sylvain; Mathieu, Lucie; Daigneault, Réal; Faure, Stéphane

2016-04-01

This study proposes an artificial neural networks-based method for predicting the unaltered (precursor) chemical compositions of hydrothermally altered volcanic rock. The method aims at predicting precursor's major components contents (SiO2, FeOT, MgO, CaO, Na2O, and K2O). The prediction is based on ratios of elements generally immobile during alteration processes; i.e. Zr, TiO2, Al2O3, Y, Nb, Th, and Cr, which are provided as inputs to the neural networks. Multi-layer perceptron neural networks were trained on a large dataset of least-altered volcanic rock samples that document a wide range of volcanic rock types, tectonic settings and ages. The precursors thus predicted are then used to perform mass balance calculations. Various statistics were calculated to validate the predictions of precursors' major components, which indicate that, overall, the predictions are precise and accurate. For example, rank-based correlation coefficients were calculated to compare predicted and analysed values from a least-altered test dataset that had not been used to train the networks. Coefficients over 0.87 were obtained for all components, except for Na2O (0.77), indicating that predictions for alkali might be less performant. Also, predictions are performant for most volcanic rock compositions, except for ultra-K rocks. The proposed method provides an easy and rapid solution to the often difficult task of determining appropriate volcanic precursor compositions to rocks modified by hydrothermal alteration. It is intended for large volcanic rock databases and is most useful, for example, to mineral exploration performed in complex or poorly known volcanic settings. The method is implemented as a simple C++ console program.

ProLanGO: Protein Function Prediction Using Neural Machine Translation Based on a Recurrent Neural Network.

Science.gov (United States)

Cao, Renzhi; Freitas, Colton; Chan, Leong; Sun, Miao; Jiang, Haiqing; Chen, Zhangxin

2017-10-17

With the development of next generation sequencing techniques, it is fast and cheap to determine protein sequences but relatively slow and expensive to extract useful information from protein sequences because of limitations of traditional biological experimental techniques. Protein function prediction has been a long standing challenge to fill the gap between the huge amount of protein sequences and the known function. In this paper, we propose a novel method to convert the protein function problem into a language translation problem by the new proposed protein sequence language "ProLan" to the protein function language "GOLan", and build a neural machine translation model based on recurrent neural networks to translate "ProLan" language to "GOLan" language. We blindly tested our method by attending the latest third Critical Assessment of Function Annotation (CAFA 3) in 2016, and also evaluate the performance of our methods on selected proteins whose function was released after CAFA competition. The good performance on the training and testing datasets demonstrates that our new proposed method is a promising direction for protein function prediction. In summary, we first time propose a method which converts the protein function prediction problem to a language translation problem and applies a neural machine translation model for protein function prediction.

Prediction of fuel consumption of mining dump trucks: A neural networks approach

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Siami-Irdemoosa, Elnaz; Dindarloo, Saeid R.

2015-01-01

Highlights: • A neural network model of fuel consumption in mining haul trucks was constructed and tested. • Using the cyclic activities, the model was able to predict unseen (testing) data. • Trucks idle times were identified as the most important unnecessary energy consuming portion of the network. • Practical remedies, based on the nature of mining operations, were proposed to reduce the energy consumption. - Abstract: Fuel consumption of mining dump trucks accounts for about 30% of total energy use in surface mines. Moreover, a fleet of large dump trucks is the main source of greenhouse gas (GHG) generation. Modeling and prediction of fuel consumption per cycle is a valuable tool in assessing both energy costs and the resulting GHG generation. However, only a few studies have been published on fuel prediction in mining operations. In this paper, fuel consumption per cycle of operation was predicted using artificial neural networks (ANN) technique. Explanatory variables were: pay load, loading time, idled while loaded, loaded travel time, empty travel time, and idled while empty. The output variable was the amount of fuel consumed in one cycle. Mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) of 10% demonstrated applicability of ANN in prediction of the fuel consumption. The results demonstrated the considerable effect of mining trucks idle times in fuel consumption. A large portion of the unnecessary energy consumption and GHG generation, in this study, was solely due to avoidable idle times. This necessitates implementation of proper actions/remedies in form of both preventive and corrective actions

TopologyNet: Topology based deep convolutional and multi-task neural networks for biomolecular property predictions

Science.gov (United States)

2017-01-01

Although deep learning approaches have had tremendous success in image, video and audio processing, computer vision, and speech recognition, their applications to three-dimensional (3D) biomolecular structural data sets have been hindered by the geometric and biological complexity. To address this problem we introduce the element-specific persistent homology (ESPH) method. ESPH represents 3D complex geometry by one-dimensional (1D) topological invariants and retains important biological information via a multichannel image-like representation. This representation reveals hidden structure-function relationships in biomolecules. We further integrate ESPH and deep convolutional neural networks to construct a multichannel topological neural network (TopologyNet) for the predictions of protein-ligand binding affinities and protein stability changes upon mutation. To overcome the deep learning limitations from small and noisy training sets, we propose a multi-task multichannel topological convolutional neural network (MM-TCNN). We demonstrate that TopologyNet outperforms the latest methods in the prediction of protein-ligand binding affinities, mutation induced globular protein folding free energy changes, and mutation induced membrane protein folding free energy changes. Availability: weilab.math.msu.edu/TDL/ PMID:28749969

Stability of a neural predictive controller scheme on a neural model

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Luther, Jim Benjamin; Sørensen, Paul Haase

2009-01-01

In previous works presenting various forms of neural-network-based predictive controllers, the main emphasis has been on the implementation aspects, i.e. the development of a robust optimization algorithm for the controller, which will be able to perform in real time. However, the stability issue....... The resulting controller is tested on a nonlinear pneumatic servo system.......In previous works presenting various forms of neural-network-based predictive controllers, the main emphasis has been on the implementation aspects, i.e. the development of a robust optimization algorithm for the controller, which will be able to perform in real time. However, the stability issue...... has not been addressed specifically for these controllers. On the other hand a number of results concerning the stability of receding horizon controllers on a nonlinear system exist. In this paper we present a proof of stability for a predictive controller controlling a neural network model...

Forecasting PM10 in metropolitan areas: Efficacy of neural networks

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fernando, H.J.S.; Mammarella, M.C.; Grandoni, G.; Fedele, P.; Di Marco, R.; Dimitrova, R.; Hyde, P.

2012-01-01

Deterministic photochemical air quality models are commonly used for regulatory management and planning of urban airsheds. These models are complex, computer intensive, and hence are prohibitively expensive for routine air quality predictions. Stochastic methods are becoming increasingly popular as an alternative, which relegate decision making to artificial intelligence based on Neural Networks that are made of artificial neurons or ‘nodes’ capable of ‘learning through training’ via historic data. A Neural Network was used to predict particulate matter concentration at a regulatory monitoring site in Phoenix, Arizona; its development, efficacy as a predictive tool and performance vis-à-vis a commonly used regulatory photochemical model are described in this paper. It is concluded that Neural Networks are much easier, quicker and economical to implement without compromising the accuracy of predictions. Neural Networks can be used to develop rapid air quality warning systems based on a network of automated monitoring stations.Highlights: ► Neural Network is an alternative technique to photochemical modelling. ► Neutral Networks can be as effective as traditional air photochemical modelling. ► Neural Networks are much easier and quicker to implement in health warning system. - Neutral networks are as effective as photochemical modelling for air quality predictions, but are much easier, quicker and economical to implement in air pollution (or health) warning systems.

Optimization the Initial Weights of Artificial Neural Networks via Genetic Algorithm Applied to Hip Bone Fracture Prediction

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yu-Tzu Chang

2012-01-01

Full Text Available This paper aims to find the optimal set of initial weights to enhance the accuracy of artificial neural networks (ANNs by using genetic algorithms (GA. The sample in this study included 228 patients with first low-trauma hip fracture and 215 patients without hip fracture, both of them were interviewed with 78 questions. We used logistic regression to select 5 important factors (i.e., bone mineral density, experience of fracture, average hand grip strength, intake of coffee, and peak expiratory flow rate for building artificial neural networks to predict the probabilities of hip fractures. Three-layer (one hidden layer ANNs models with back-propagation training algorithms were adopted. The purpose in this paper is to find the optimal initial weights of neural networks via genetic algorithm to improve the predictability. Area under the ROC curve (AUC was used to assess the performance of neural networks. The study results showed the genetic algorithm obtained an AUC of 0.858±0.00493 on modeling data and 0.802 ± 0.03318 on testing data. They were slightly better than the results of our previous study (0.868±0.00387 and 0.796±0.02559, resp.. Thus, the preliminary study for only using simple GA has been proved to be effective for improving the accuracy of artificial neural networks.

Prediction of the temperature of the atmosphere of the primary containment: comparison between neural networks and polynomial regression

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Alvarez Huerta, A.; Gonzalez Miguelez, R.; Garcia Metola, D.; Noriega Gonzalez, A.

2011-01-01

The modelization is carried out through two different techniques, a conventional polynomial regression and other based on an approach by neural networks artificial. He is a comparison between the quality of the forecast would make different models based on the polynomial regression and neural network with generalization by Bayesian regulation, using the indicators of the root of the mean square error and the coefficient of determination, in view of the results, the neural network generates a prediction more accurate and reliable than the polynomial regression.

Prediction of Irradiation Damage by Artificial Neural Network for Austenitic Stainless Steels

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kim, Won Sam; Kim, Dae Whan; Hwang, Seong Sik

2007-01-01

The internal structures of pressurized water reactors (PWR) located close to the reactor core are used to support the fuel assemblies, to maintain the alignment between assemblies and the control bars and to canalize the primary water. In general these internal structures consist of baffle plates in solution annealed (SA) 304 stainless steel and baffle bolts in cold worked (CW) 316 stainless steel. These components undergo a large neutron flux at temperatures between 280 and 380 .deg. C. Well-controlled irradiation-assisted stress corrosion cracking (IASCC) data from properly irradiated, and properly characterized, materials are sorely lacking due to the experimental difficulties and financial limitations related to working with highly activated materials. In this work, we tried to apply the artificial neural network (ANN) approach, predicted the susceptibility to an IASCC for an austenitic stainless steel SA 304 and CW 316. G.S. Was and J.-P. Massoud experimental data are used. Because there is fewer experimental data, we need to prediction for radiation damage under the internal structure of PWR. Besides, we compared experimental data with prediction data by the artificial neural network

Experiment and Artificial Neural Network Prediction of Thermal Conductivity and Viscosity for Alumina-Water Nanofluids.

Science.gov (United States)

Zhao, Ningbo; Li, Zhiming

2017-05-19

To effectively predict the thermal conductivity and viscosity of alumina (Al₂O₃)-water nanofluids, an artificial neural network (ANN) approach was investigated in the present study. Firstly, using a two-step method, four Al₂O₃-water nanofluids were prepared respectively by dispersing different volume fractions (1.31%, 2.72%, 4.25%, and 5.92%) of nanoparticles with the average diameter of 30 nm. On this basis, the thermal conductivity and viscosity of the above nanofluids were analyzed experimentally under various temperatures ranging from 296 to 313 K. Then a radial basis function (RBF) neural network was constructed to predict the thermal conductivity and viscosity of Al₂O₃-water nanofluids as a function of nanoparticle volume fraction and temperature. The experimental results showed that both nanoparticle volume fraction and temperature could enhance the thermal conductivity of Al₂O₃-water nanofluids. However, the viscosity only depended strongly on Al₂O₃ nanoparticle volume fraction and was increased slightly by changing temperature. In addition, the comparative analysis revealed that the RBF neural network had an excellent ability to predict the thermal conductivity and viscosity of Al₂O₃-water nanofluids with the mean absolute percent errors of 0.5177% and 0.5618%, respectively. This demonstrated that the ANN provided an effective way to predict the thermophysical properties of nanofluids with limited experimental data.

Artificial neural networks and neuro-fuzzy inference systems as virtual sensors for hydrogen safety prediction

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Karri, Vishy; Ho, Tien [School of Engineering, University of Tasmania, GPO Box 252-65, Hobart, Tasmania 7001 (Australia); Madsen, Ole [Department of Production, Aalborg University, Fibigerstraede 16, DK-9220 Aalborg (Denmark)

2008-06-15

Hydrogen is increasingly investigated as an alternative fuel to petroleum products in running internal combustion engines and as powering remote area power systems using generators. The safety issues related to hydrogen gas are further exasperated by expensive instrumentation required to measure the percentage of explosive limits, flow rates and production pressure. This paper investigates the use of model based virtual sensors (rather than expensive physical sensors) in connection with hydrogen production with a Hogen 20 electrolyzer system. The virtual sensors are used to predict relevant hydrogen safety parameters, such as the percentage of lower explosive limit, hydrogen pressure and hydrogen flow rate as a function of different input conditions of power supplied (voltage and current), the feed of de-ionized water and Hogen 20 electrolyzer system parameters. The virtual sensors are developed by means of the application of various Artificial Intelligent techniques. To train and appraise the neural network models as virtual sensors, the Hogen 20 electrolyzer is instrumented with necessary sensors to gather experimental data which together with MATLAB neural networks toolbox and tailor made adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference systems (ANFIS) were used as predictive tools to estimate hydrogen safety parameters. It was shown that using the neural networks hydrogen safety parameters were predicted to less than 3% of percentage average root mean square error. The most accurate prediction was achieved by using ANFIS. (author)

Predicting ventriculoperitoneal shunt infection in children with hydrocephalus using artificial neural network.

Science.gov (United States)

Habibi, Zohreh; Ertiaei, Abolhasan; Nikdad, Mohammad Sadegh; Mirmohseni, Atefeh Sadat; Afarideh, Mohsen; Heidari, Vahid; Saberi, Hooshang; Rezaei, Abdolreza Sheikh; Nejat, Farideh

2016-11-01

The relationships between shunt infection and predictive factors have not been previously investigated using Artificial Neural Network (ANN) model. The aim of this study was to develop an ANN model to predict shunt infection in a group of children with shunted hydrocephalus. Among more than 800 ventriculoperitoneal shunt procedures which had been performed between April 2000 and April 2011, 68 patients with shunt infection and 80 controls that fulfilled a set of meticulous inclusion/exclusion criteria were consecutively enrolled. Univariate analysis was performed for a long list of risk factors, and those with p value < 0.2 were used to create ANN and logistic regression (LR) models. Five variables including birth weight, age at the first shunting, shunt revision, prematurity, and myelomeningocele were significantly associated with shunt infection via univariate analysis, and two other variables (intraventricular hemorrhage and coincided infections) had a p value of less than 0.2. Using these seven input variables, ANN and LR models predicted shunt infection with an accuracy of 83.1 % (AUC; 91.98 %, 95 % CI) and 55.7 % (AUC; 76.5, 95 % CI), respectively. The contribution of the factors in the predictive performance of ANN in descending order was history of shunt revision, low birth weight (under 2000 g), history of prematurity, the age at the first shunt procedure, history of intraventricular hemorrhage, history of myelomeningocele, and coinfection. The findings show that artificial neural networks can predict shunt infection with a high level of accuracy in children with shunted hydrocephalus. Also, the contribution of different risk factors in the prediction of shunt infection can be determined using the trained network.

PWR system simulation and parameter estimation with neural networks

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Akkurt, Hatice; Colak, Uener E-mail: uc@nuke.hacettepe.edu.tr

2002-11-01

A detailed nonlinear model for a typical PWR system has been considered for the development of simulation software. Each component in the system has been represented by appropriate differential equations. The SCILAB software was used for solving nonlinear equations to simulate steady-state and transient operational conditions. Overall system has been constructed by connecting individual components to each other. The validity of models for individual components and overall system has been verified. The system response against given transients have been analyzed. A neural network has been utilized to estimate system parameters during transients. Different transients have been imposed in training and prediction stages with neural networks. Reactor power and system reactivity during the transient event have been predicted by the neural network. Results show that neural networks estimations are in good agreement with the calculated response of the reactor system. The maximum errors are within {+-}0.254% for power and between -0.146 and 0.353% for reactivity prediction cases. Steam generator parameters, pressure and water level, are also successfully predicted by the neural network employed in this study. The noise imposed on the input parameters of the neural network deteriorates the power estimation capability whereas the reactivity estimation capability is not significantly affected.

PWR system simulation and parameter estimation with neural networks

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Akkurt, Hatice; Colak, Uener

2002-01-01

A detailed nonlinear model for a typical PWR system has been considered for the development of simulation software. Each component in the system has been represented by appropriate differential equations. The SCILAB software was used for solving nonlinear equations to simulate steady-state and transient operational conditions. Overall system has been constructed by connecting individual components to each other. The validity of models for individual components and overall system has been verified. The system response against given transients have been analyzed. A neural network has been utilized to estimate system parameters during transients. Different transients have been imposed in training and prediction stages with neural networks. Reactor power and system reactivity during the transient event have been predicted by the neural network. Results show that neural networks estimations are in good agreement with the calculated response of the reactor system. The maximum errors are within ±0.254% for power and between -0.146 and 0.353% for reactivity prediction cases. Steam generator parameters, pressure and water level, are also successfully predicted by the neural network employed in this study. The noise imposed on the input parameters of the neural network deteriorates the power estimation capability whereas the reactivity estimation capability is not significantly affected

Modelling and Prediction of Photovoltaic Power Output Using Artificial Neural Networks

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Aminmohammad Saberian

2014-01-01

Full Text Available This paper presents a solar power modelling method using artificial neural networks (ANNs. Two neural network structures, namely, general regression neural network (GRNN feedforward back propagation (FFBP, have been used to model a photovoltaic panel output power and approximate the generated power. Both neural networks have four inputs and one output. The inputs are maximum temperature, minimum temperature, mean temperature, and irradiance; the output is the power. The data used in this paper started from January 1, 2006, until December 31, 2010. The five years of data were split into two parts: 2006–2008 and 2009-2010; the first part was used for training and the second part was used for testing the neural networks. A mathematical equation is used to estimate the generated power. At the end, both of these networks have shown good modelling performance; however, FFBP has shown a better performance comparing with GRNN.

Prediction of Bladder Cancer Recurrences Using Artificial Neural Networks

Science.gov (United States)

Zulueta Guerrero, Ekaitz; Garay, Naiara Telleria; Lopez-Guede, Jose Manuel; Vilches, Borja Ayerdi; Iragorri, Eider Egilegor; Castaños, David Lecumberri; de La Hoz Rastrollo, Ana Belén; Peña, Carlos Pertusa

Even if considerable advances have been made in the field of early diagnosis, there is no simple, cheap and non-invasive method that can be applied to the clinical monitorisation of bladder cancer patients. Moreover, bladder cancer recurrences or the reappearance of the tumour after its surgical resection cannot be predicted in the current clinical setting. In this study, Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) were used to assess how different combinations of classical clinical parameters (stage-grade and age) and two urinary markers (growth factor and pro-inflammatory mediator) could predict post surgical recurrences in bladder cancer patients. Different ANN methods, input parameter combinations and recurrence related output variables were used and the resulting positive and negative prediction rates compared. MultiLayer Perceptron (MLP) was selected as the most predictive model and urinary markers showed the highest sensitivity, predicting correctly 50% of the patients that would recur in a 2 year follow-up period.

Streamflow predictions in Alpine Catchments by using artificial neural networks. Application in the Alto Genil Basin (South Spain)

Science.gov (United States)

Jimeno-Saez, Patricia; Pegalajar-Cuellar, Manuel; Pulido-Velazquez, David

2017-04-01

This study explores techniques of modeling water inflow series, focusing on techniques of short-term steamflow prediction. An appropriate estimation of streamflow in advance is necessary to anticipate measures to mitigate the impacts and risks related to drought conditions. This study analyzes the prediction of future streamflow of nineteen subbasins in the Alto-Genil basin in Granada (Southeast of Spain). Some of these basin streamflow have an important component of snowmelt due to part of the system is located in Sierra Nevada Mountain Range, the highest mountain of continental Spain. Streamflow prediction models have been calibrated using time series of historical natural streamflows. The available streamflow measurements have been downloaded from several public data sources. These original data have been preprocessed to turn them to the original natural regime, removing the anthropic effects. The missing values in the adopted horizon period to calibrate the prediction models have been estimated by using a Temez hydrological balance model, approaching the snowmelt processes with a hybrid degree day method. In the experimentation, ARIMA models are used as baseline method, and recurrent neural networks ELMAN and nonlinear autoregressive neural network (NAR) to test if the prediction accuracy can be improved. After performing the multiple experiments with these models, non-parametric statistical tests are applied to select the best of these techniques. In the experiments carried out with ARIMA, it is concluded that ARIMA models are not adequate in this case study due to the existence of a nonlinear component that cannot be modeled. Secondly, ELMAN and NAR neural networks with multi-start training is performed with each network structure to deal with the local optimum problem, since in neural network training there is a very strong dependence on the initial weights of the network. The obtained results suggest that both neural networks are efficient for the short

Predicting dihedral angle probability distributions for protein coil residues from primary sequence using neural networks

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Helles, Glennie; Fonseca, Rasmus

2009-01-01

residue in the input-window. The trained neural network shows a significant improvement (4-68%) in predicting the most probable bin (covering a 30°×30° area of the dihedral angle space) for all amino acids in the data set compared to first order statistics. An accuracy comparable to that of secondary...... seem to have a significant influence on the dihedral angles adopted by the individual amino acids in coil segments. In this work we attempt to predict a probability distribution of these dihedral angles based on the flanking residues. While attempts to predict dihedral angles of coil segments have been...... done previously, none have, to our knowledge, presented comparable results for the probability distribution of dihedral angles. Results: In this paper we develop an artificial neural network that uses an input-window of amino acids to predict a dihedral angle probability distribution for the middle...

Prediction of Aerodynamic Coefficients for Wind Tunnel Data using a Genetic Algorithm Optimized Neural Network

Science.gov (United States)

Rajkumar, T.; Aragon, Cecilia; Bardina, Jorge; Britten, Roy

2002-01-01

A fast, reliable way of predicting aerodynamic coefficients is produced using a neural network optimized by a genetic algorithm. Basic aerodynamic coefficients (e.g. lift, drag, pitching moment) are modelled as functions of angle of attack and Mach number. The neural network is first trained on a relatively rich set of data from wind tunnel tests of numerical simulations to learn an overall model. Most of the aerodynamic parameters can be well-fitted using polynomial functions. A new set of data, which can be relatively sparse, is then supplied to the network to produce a new model consistent with the previous model and the new data. Because the new model interpolates realistically between the sparse test data points, it is suitable for use in piloted simulations. The genetic algorithm is used to choose a neural network architecture to give best results, avoiding over-and under-fitting of the test data.

NetTurnP – Neural Network Prediction of Beta-turns by Use of Evolutionary Information and Predicted Protein Sequence Features

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Petersen, Bent; Lundegaard, Claus; Petersen, Thomas Nordahl

2010-01-01

is the highest reported performance on a two-class prediction of β-turn and not-β-turn. Furthermore NetTurnP shows improved performance on some of the specific β-turn types. In the present work, neural network methods have been trained to predict β-turn or not and individual β-turn types from the primary amino......β-turns are the most common type of non-repetitive structures, and constitute on average 25% of the amino acids in proteins. The formation of β-turns plays an important role in protein folding, protein stability and molecular recognition processes. In this work we present the neural network method...... NetTurnP, for prediction of two-class β-turns and prediction of the individual β-turn types, by use of evolutionary information and predicted protein sequence features. It has been evaluated against a commonly used dataset BT426, and achieves a Matthews correlation coefficient of 0.50, which...

Prediction of the rejection of organic compounds (neutral and ionic) by nanofiltration and reverse osmosis membranes using neural networks

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Ammi, Yamina; Khaouane, Latifa; Hanini, Salah [University of Medea, Medea (Algeria)

2015-11-15

This work investigates the use of neural networks in modeling the rejection processes of organic compounds (neutral and ionic) by nanofiltration and reverse osmosis membranes. Three feed-forward neural network (NN) models, characterized by a similar structure (eleven neurons for NN1 and NN2 and twelve neurons for NN3 in the input layer, one hidden layer and one neuron in the output layer), are constructed with the aim of predicting the rejection of organic compounds (neutral and ionic). A set of 956 data points for NN1 and 701 data points for NN2 and NN3 were used to test the neural networks. 80%, 10%, and 10% of the total data were used, respectively, for the training, the validation, and the test of the three models. For the most promising neural network models, the predicted rejection values of the test dataset were compared to measured rejections values; good correlations were found (R= 0.9128 for NN1, R=0.9419 for NN2, and R=0.9527 for NN3). The root mean squared errors for the total dataset were 11.2430% for NN1, 9.0742% for NN2, and 8.2047% for NN3. Furthermore, the comparison between the predicted results and QSAR models shows that the neural network models gave far better.

Prediction of the rejection of organic compounds (neutral and ionic) by nanofiltration and reverse osmosis membranes using neural networks

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ammi, Yamina; Khaouane, Latifa; Hanini, Salah

2015-01-01

This work investigates the use of neural networks in modeling the rejection processes of organic compounds (neutral and ionic) by nanofiltration and reverse osmosis membranes. Three feed-forward neural network (NN) models, characterized by a similar structure (eleven neurons for NN1 and NN2 and twelve neurons for NN3 in the input layer, one hidden layer and one neuron in the output layer), are constructed with the aim of predicting the rejection of organic compounds (neutral and ionic). A set of 956 data points for NN1 and 701 data points for NN2 and NN3 were used to test the neural networks. 80%, 10%, and 10% of the total data were used, respectively, for the training, the validation, and the test of the three models. For the most promising neural network models, the predicted rejection values of the test dataset were compared to measured rejections values; good correlations were found (R= 0.9128 for NN1, R=0.9419 for NN2, and R=0.9527 for NN3). The root mean squared errors for the total dataset were 11.2430% for NN1, 9.0742% for NN2, and 8.2047% for NN3. Furthermore, the comparison between the predicted results and QSAR models shows that the neural network models gave far better.

Prediction of compressibility parameters of the soils using artificial neural network.

Science.gov (United States)

Kurnaz, T Fikret; Dagdeviren, Ugur; Yildiz, Murat; Ozkan, Ozhan

2016-01-01

The compression index and recompression index are one of the important compressibility parameters to determine the settlement calculation for fine-grained soil layers. These parameters can be determined by carrying out laboratory oedometer test on undisturbed samples; however, the test is quite time-consuming and expensive. Therefore, many empirical formulas based on regression analysis have been presented to estimate the compressibility parameters using soil index properties. In this paper, an artificial neural network (ANN) model is suggested for prediction of compressibility parameters from basic soil properties. For this purpose, the input parameters are selected as the natural water content, initial void ratio, liquid limit and plasticity index. In this model, two output parameters, including compression index and recompression index, are predicted in a combined network structure. As the result of the study, proposed ANN model is successful for the prediction of the compression index, however the predicted recompression index values are not satisfying compared to the compression index.

Neural Fuzzy Inference System-Based Weather Prediction Model and Its Precipitation Predicting Experiment

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jing Lu

2014-11-01

Full Text Available We propose a weather prediction model in this article based on neural network and fuzzy inference system (NFIS-WPM, and then apply it to predict daily fuzzy precipitation given meteorological premises for testing. The model consists of two parts: the first part is the “fuzzy rule-based neural network”, which simulates sequential relations among fuzzy sets using artificial neural network; and the second part is the “neural fuzzy inference system”, which is based on the first part, but could learn new fuzzy rules from the previous ones according to the algorithm we proposed. NFIS-WPM (High Pro and NFIS-WPM (Ave are improved versions of this model. It is well known that the need for accurate weather prediction is apparent when considering the benefits. However, the excessive pursuit of accuracy in weather prediction makes some of the “accurate” prediction results meaningless and the numerical prediction model is often complex and time-consuming. By adapting this novel model to a precipitation prediction problem, we make the predicted outcomes of precipitation more accurate and the prediction methods simpler than by using the complex numerical forecasting model that would occupy large computation resources, be time-consuming and which has a low predictive accuracy rate. Accordingly, we achieve more accurate predictive precipitation results than by using traditional artificial neural networks that have low predictive accuracy.

PREDICTING THE EFFECTIVENESS OF WEB INFORMATION SYSTEMS USING NEURAL NETWORKS MODELING: FRAMEWORK & EMPIRICAL TESTING

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Dr. Kamal Mohammed Alhendawi

2018-02-01

Full Text Available The information systems (IS assessment studies have still used the commonly traditional tools such as questionnaires in evaluating the dependent variables and specially effectiveness of systems. Artificial neural networks have been recently accepted as an effective alternative tool for modeling the complicated systems and widely used for forecasting. A very few is known about the employment of Artificial Neural Network (ANN in the prediction IS effectiveness. For this reason, this study is considered as one of the fewest studies to investigate the efficiency and capability of using ANN for forecasting the user perceptions towards IS effectiveness where MATLAB is utilized for building and training the neural network model. A dataset of 175 subjects collected from international organization are utilized for ANN learning where each subject consists of 6 features (5 quality factors as inputs and one Boolean output. A percentage of 75% o subjects are used in the training phase. The results indicate an evidence on the ANN models has a reasonable accuracy in forecasting the IS effectiveness. For prediction, ANN with PURELIN (ANNP and ANN with TANSIG (ANNTS transfer functions are used. It is found that both two models have a reasonable prediction, however, the accuracy of ANNTS model is better than ANNP model (88.6% and 70.4% respectively. As the study proposes a new model for predicting IS dependent variables, it could save the considerably high cost that might be spent in sample data collection in the quantitative studies in the fields science, management, education, arts and others.

A new wind power prediction method based on chaotic theory and Bernstein Neural Network

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wang, Cong; Zhang, Hongli; Fan, Wenhui; Fan, Xiaochao

2016-01-01

The accuracy of wind power prediction is important for assessing the security and economy of the system operation when wind power connects to the grids. However, multiple factors cause a long delay and large errors in wind power prediction. Hence, efficient wind power forecasting approaches are still required for practical applications. In this paper, a new wind power forecasting method based on Chaos Theory and Bernstein Neural Network (BNN) is proposed. Firstly, the largest Lyapunov exponent as a judgment for wind power system's chaotic behavior is made. Secondly, Phase Space Reconstruction (PSR) is used to reconstruct the wind power series' phase space. Thirdly, the prediction model is constructed using the Bernstein polynomial and neural network. Finally, the weights and thresholds of the model are optimized by Primal Dual State Transition Algorithm (PDSTA). The practical hourly data of wind power generation in Xinjiang is used to test this forecaster. The proposed forecaster is compared with several current prominent research findings. Analytical results indicate that the forecasting error of PDSTA + BNN is 3.893% for 24 look-ahead hours, and has lower errors obtained compared with the other forecast methods discussed in this paper. The results of all cases studying confirm the validity of the new forecast method. - Highlights: • Lyapunov exponent is used to verify chaotic behavior of wind power series. • Phase Space Reconstruction is used to reconstruct chaotic wind power series. • A new Bernstein Neural Network to predict wind power series is proposed. • Primal dual state transition algorithm is chosen as the training strategy of BNN.

Protein backbone and sidechain torsion angles predicted from NMR chemical shifts using artificial neural networks

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Shen Yang; Bax, Ad, E-mail: bax@nih.gov [National Institutes of Health, Laboratory of Chemical Physics, National Institute of Diabetes and Digestive and Kidney Diseases (United States)

2013-07-15

A new program, TALOS-N, is introduced for predicting protein backbone torsion angles from NMR chemical shifts. The program relies far more extensively on the use of trained artificial neural networks than its predecessor, TALOS+. Validation on an independent set of proteins indicates that backbone torsion angles can be predicted for a larger, {>=}90 % fraction of the residues, with an error rate smaller than ca 3.5 %, using an acceptance criterion that is nearly two-fold tighter than that used previously, and a root mean square difference between predicted and crystallographically observed ({phi}, {psi}) torsion angles of ca 12 Masculine-Ordinal-Indicator . TALOS-N also reports sidechain {chi}{sup 1} rotameric states for about 50 % of the residues, and a consistency with reference structures of 89 %. The program includes a neural network trained to identify secondary structure from residue sequence and chemical shifts.

Foreign currency rate forecasting using neural networks

Science.gov (United States)

Pandya, Abhijit S.; Kondo, Tadashi; Talati, Amit; Jayadevappa, Suryaprasad

2000-03-01

Neural networks are increasingly being used as a forecasting tool in many forecasting problems. This paper discusses the application of neural networks in predicting daily foreign exchange rates between the USD, GBP as well as DEM. We approach the problem from a time-series analysis framework - where future exchange rates are forecasted solely using past exchange rates. This relies on the belief that the past prices and future prices are very close related, and interdependent. We present the result of training a neural network with historical USD-GBP data. The methodology used in explained, as well as the training process. We discuss the selection of inputs to the network, and present a comparison of using the actual exchange rates and the exchange rate differences as inputs. Price and rate differences are the preferred way of training neural network in financial applications. Results of both approaches are present together for comparison. We show that the network is able to learn the trends in the exchange rate movements correctly, and present the results of the prediction over several periods of time.

Tensor Basis Neural Network v. 1.0 (beta)

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

2017-03-28

This software package can be used to build, train, and test a neural network machine learning model. The neural network architecture is specifically designed to embed tensor invariance properties by enforcing that the model predictions sit on an invariant tensor basis. This neural network architecture can be used in developing constitutive models for applications such as turbulence modeling, materials science, and electromagnetism.

Neural network prediction of carbonate lithofacies from well logs, Big Bow and Sand Arroyo Creek fields, Southwest Kansas

Science.gov (United States)

Qi, L.; Carr, T.R.

2006-01-01

In the Hugoton Embayment of southwestern Kansas, St. Louis Limestone reservoirs have relatively low recovery efficiencies, attributed to the heterogeneous nature of the oolitic deposits. This study establishes quantitative relationships between digital well logs and core description data, and applies these relationships in a probabilistic sense to predict lithofacies in 90 uncored wells across the Big Bow and Sand Arroyo Creek fields. In 10 wells, a single hidden-layer neural network based on digital well logs and core described lithofacies of the limestone depositional texture was used to train and establish a non-linear relationship between lithofacies assignments from detailed core descriptions and selected log curves. Neural network models were optimized by selecting six predictor variables and automated cross-validation with neural network parameters and then used to predict lithofacies on the whole data set of the 2023 half-foot intervals from the 10 cored wells with the selected network size of 35 and a damping parameter of 0.01. Predicted lithofacies results compared to actual lithofacies displays absolute accuracies of 70.37-90.82%. Incorporating adjoining lithofacies, within-one lithofacies improves accuracy slightly (93.72%). Digital logs from uncored wells were batch processed to predict lithofacies and probabilities related to each lithofacies at half-foot resolution corresponding to log units. The results were used to construct interpolated cross-sections and useful depositional patterns of St. Louis lithofacies were illustrated, e.g., the concentration of oolitic deposits (including lithofacies 5 and 6) along local highs and the relative dominance of quartz-rich carbonate grainstone (lithofacies 1) in the zones A and B of the St. Louis Limestone. Neural network techniques are applicable to other complex reservoirs, in which facies geometry and distribution are the key factors controlling heterogeneity and distribution of rock properties. Future work

The cluster analysis based on non-teacher artificial neural network for the danger prediction of coal spontaneous fire

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Wang, D.; Wang, J. [China University of Mining and Technology (China)

1999-04-01

This paper focuses on the problem of predicting the danger level of spontaneous fire in coal mines. Firstly, the inadequacy of the present artificial neural networks prediction model is analysed. Then a new cluster model based on non-teacher neural network is constructed according to the danger judgement standards given by experts. On this basis, by adopting the error square sum criterion and its algorithm, the corresponding prediction software is developed and applied in two working faces of Chaili Coal Mine. The forecasting result is importantly significant for the prevention of spontaneous fire. 4 refs., 1 fig., 1 tab.

Daily Nigerian peak load forecasting using artificial neural network ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

A daily peak load forecasting technique that uses artificial neural network with seasonal indices is presented in this paper. A neural network of relatively smaller size than the main prediction network is used to predict the daily peak load for a period of one year over which the actual daily load data are available using one ...

Analysis of Artificial Neural Network Backpropagation Using Conjugate Gradient Fletcher Reeves In The Predicting Process

Science.gov (United States)

Wanto, Anjar; Zarlis, Muhammad; Sawaluddin; Hartama, Dedy

2017-12-01

Backpropagation is a good artificial neural network algorithm used to predict, one of which is to predict the rate of Consumer Price Index (CPI) based on the foodstuff sector. While conjugate gradient fletcher reeves is a suitable optimization method when juxtaposed with backpropagation method, because this method can shorten iteration without reducing the quality of training and testing result. Consumer Price Index (CPI) data that will be predicted to come from the Central Statistics Agency (BPS) Pematangsiantar. The results of this study will be expected to contribute to the government in making policies to improve economic growth. In this study, the data obtained will be processed by conducting training and testing with artificial neural network backpropagation by using parameter learning rate 0,01 and target error minimum that is 0.001-0,09. The training network is built with binary and bipolar sigmoid activation functions. After the results with backpropagation are obtained, it will then be optimized using the conjugate gradient fletcher reeves method by conducting the same training and testing based on 5 predefined network architectures. The result, the method used can increase the speed and accuracy result.

SOLAR PHOTOVOLTAIC OUTPUT POWER FORECASTING USING BACK PROPAGATION NEURAL NETWORK

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

B. Jency Paulin

2016-01-01

Full Text Available Solar Energy is an important renewable and unlimited source of energy. Solar photovoltaic power forecasting, is an estimation of the expected power production, that help the grid operators to better manage the electric balance between power demand and supply. Neural network is a computational model that can predict new outcomes from past trends. The artificial neural network is used for photovoltaic plant energy forecasting. The output power for solar photovoltaic cell is predicted on hourly basis. In historical dataset collection process, two dataset was collected and used for analysis. The dataset was provided with three independent attributes and one dependent attributes. The implementation of Artificial Neural Network structure is done by Multilayer Perceptron (MLP and training procedure for neural network is done by error Back Propagation (BP. In order to train and test the neural network, the datasets are divided in the ratio 70:30. The accuracy of prediction can be done by using various error measurement criteria and the performance of neural network is to be noted.

DeepFix: A Fully Convolutional Neural Network for Predicting Human Eye Fixations.

Science.gov (United States)

Kruthiventi, Srinivas S S; Ayush, Kumar; Babu, R Venkatesh

2017-09-01

Understanding and predicting the human visual attention mechanism is an active area of research in the fields of neuroscience and computer vision. In this paper, we propose DeepFix, a fully convolutional neural network, which models the bottom-up mechanism of visual attention via saliency prediction. Unlike classical works, which characterize the saliency map using various hand-crafted features, our model automatically learns features in a hierarchical fashion and predicts the saliency map in an end-to-end manner. DeepFix is designed to capture semantics at multiple scales while taking global context into account, by using network layers with very large receptive fields. Generally, fully convolutional nets are spatially invariant-this prevents them from modeling location-dependent patterns (e.g., centre-bias). Our network handles this by incorporating a novel location-biased convolutional layer. We evaluate our model on multiple challenging saliency data sets and show that it achieves the state-of-the-art results.

Neural network and its application to CT imaging

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Nikravesh, M.; Kovscek, A.R.; Patzek, T.W. [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab., CA (United States)] [and others

1997-02-01

We present an integrated approach to imaging the progress of air displacement by spontaneous imbibition of oil into sandstone. We combine Computerized Tomography (CT) scanning and neural network image processing. The main aspects of our approach are (I) visualization of the distribution of oil and air saturation by CT, (II) interpretation of CT scans using neural networks, and (III) reconstruction of 3-D images of oil saturation from the CT scans with a neural network model. Excellent agreement between the actual images and the neural network predictions is found.

Ideomotor feedback control in a recurrent neural network.

Science.gov (United States)

Galtier, Mathieu

2015-06-01

The architecture of a neural network controlling an unknown environment is presented. It is based on a randomly connected recurrent neural network from which both perception and action are simultaneously read and fed back. There are two concurrent learning rules implementing a sort of ideomotor control: (i) perception is learned along the principle that the network should predict reliably its incoming stimuli; (ii) action is learned along the principle that the prediction of the network should match a target time series. The coherent behavior of the neural network in its environment is a consequence of the interaction between the two principles. Numerical simulations show a promising performance of the approach, which can be turned into a local and better "biologically plausible" algorithm.

Predicting non-melanoma skin cancer via a multi-parameterized artificial neural network.

Science.gov (United States)

Roffman, David; Hart, Gregory; Girardi, Michael; Ko, Christine J; Deng, Jun

2018-01-26

Ultraviolet radiation (UVR) exposure and family history are major associated risk factors for the development of non-melanoma skin cancer (NMSC). The objective of this study was to develop and validate a multi-parameterized artificial neural network based on available personal health information for early detection of NMSC with high sensitivity and specificity, even in the absence of known UVR exposure and family history. The 1997-2015 NHIS adult survey data used to train and validate our neural network (NN) comprised of 2,056 NMSC and 460,574 non-cancer cases. We extracted 13 parameters for our NN: gender, age, BMI, diabetic status, smoking status, emphysema, asthma, race, Hispanic ethnicity, hypertension, heart diseases, vigorous exercise habits, and history of stroke. This study yielded an area under the ROC curve of 0.81 and 0.81 for training and validation, respectively. Our results (training sensitivity 88.5% and specificity 62.2%, validation sensitivity 86.2% and specificity 62.7%) were comparable to a previous study of basal and squamous cell carcinoma prediction that also included UVR exposure and family history information. These results indicate that our NN is robust enough to make predictions, suggesting that we have identified novel associations and potential predictive parameters of NMSC.

Prediction of coal response to froth flotation based on coal analysis using regression and artificial neural network

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Jorjani, E.; Poorali, H.A.; Sam, A.; Chelgani, S.C.; Mesroghli, S.; Shayestehfar, M.R. [Islam Azad University, Tehran (Iran). Dept. of Mining Engineering

2009-10-15

In this paper, the combustible value (i.e. 100-Ash) and combustible recovery of coal flotation concentrate were predicted by regression and artificial neural network based on proximate and group macerals analysis. The regression method shows that the relationships between (a) in (ash), volatile matter and moisture (b) in (ash), in (liptinite), fusinite and vitrinite with combustible value can achieve the correlation coefficients (R{sup 2}) of 0.8 and 0.79, respectively. In addition, the input sets of (c) ash, volatile matter and moisture (d) ash, liptinite and fusinite can predict the combustible recovery with the correlation coefficients of 0.84 and 0.63, respectively. Feed-forward artificial neural network with 6-8-12-11-2-1 arrangement for moisture, ash and volatile matter input set was capable to estimate both combustible value and combustible recovery with correlation of 0.95. It was shown that the proposed neural network model could accurately reproduce all the effects of proximate and group macerals analysis on coal flotation system.

Software Design Challenges in Time Series Prediction Systems Using Parallel Implementation of Artificial Neural Networks

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Narayanan Manikandan

2016-01-01

Full Text Available Software development life cycle has been characterized by destructive disconnects between activities like planning, analysis, design, and programming. Particularly software developed with prediction based results is always a big challenge for designers. Time series data forecasting like currency exchange, stock prices, and weather report are some of the areas where an extensive research is going on for the last three decades. In the initial days, the problems with financial analysis and prediction were solved by statistical models and methods. For the last two decades, a large number of Artificial Neural Networks based learning models have been proposed to solve the problems of financial data and get accurate results in prediction of the future trends and prices. This paper addressed some architectural design related issues for performance improvement through vectorising the strengths of multivariate econometric time series models and Artificial Neural Networks. It provides an adaptive approach for predicting exchange rates and it can be called hybrid methodology for predicting exchange rates. This framework is tested for finding the accuracy and performance of parallel algorithms used.

Daily Suspended Sediment Discharge Prediction Using Multiple Linear Regression and Artificial Neural Network

Science.gov (United States)

Uca; Toriman, Ekhwan; Jaafar, Othman; Maru, Rosmini; Arfan, Amal; Saleh Ahmar, Ansari

2018-01-01

Prediction of suspended sediment discharge in a catchments area is very important because it can be used to evaluation the erosion hazard, management of its water resources, water quality, hydrology project management (dams, reservoirs, and irrigation) and to determine the extent of the damage that occurred in the catchments. Multiple Linear Regression analysis and artificial neural network can be used to predict the amount of daily suspended sediment discharge. Regression analysis using the least square method, whereas artificial neural networks using Radial Basis Function (RBF) and feedforward multilayer perceptron with three learning algorithms namely Levenberg-Marquardt (LM), Scaled Conjugate Descent (SCD) and Broyden-Fletcher-Goldfarb-Shanno Quasi-Newton (BFGS). The number neuron of hidden layer is three to sixteen, while in output layer only one neuron because only one output target. The mean absolute error (MAE), root mean square error (RMSE), coefficient of determination (R2 ) and coefficient of efficiency (CE) of the multiple linear regression (MLRg) value Model 2 (6 input variable independent) has the lowest the value of MAE and RMSE (0.0000002 and 13.6039) and highest R2 and CE (0.9971 and 0.9971). When compared between LM, SCG and RBF, the BFGS model structure 3-7-1 is the better and more accurate to prediction suspended sediment discharge in Jenderam catchment. The performance value in testing process, MAE and RMSE (13.5769 and 17.9011) is smallest, meanwhile R2 and CE (0.9999 and 0.9998) is the highest if it compared with the another BFGS Quasi-Newton model (6-3-1, 9-10-1 and 12-12-1). Based on the performance statistics value, MLRg, LM, SCG, BFGS and RBF suitable and accurately for prediction by modeling the non-linear complex behavior of suspended sediment responses to rainfall, water depth and discharge. The comparison between artificial neural network (ANN) and MLRg, the MLRg Model 2 accurately for to prediction suspended sediment discharge (kg

Modeling and control of magnetorheological fluid dampers using neural networks

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, D. H.; Liao, W. H.

2005-02-01

Due to the inherent nonlinear nature of magnetorheological (MR) fluid dampers, one of the challenging aspects for utilizing these devices to achieve high system performance is the development of accurate models and control algorithms that can take advantage of their unique characteristics. In this paper, the direct identification and inverse dynamic modeling for MR fluid dampers using feedforward and recurrent neural networks are studied. The trained direct identification neural network model can be used to predict the damping force of the MR fluid damper on line, on the basis of the dynamic responses across the MR fluid damper and the command voltage, and the inverse dynamic neural network model can be used to generate the command voltage according to the desired damping force through supervised learning. The architectures and the learning methods of the dynamic neural network models and inverse neural network models for MR fluid dampers are presented, and some simulation results are discussed. Finally, the trained neural network models are applied to predict and control the damping force of the MR fluid damper. Moreover, validation methods for the neural network models developed are proposed and used to evaluate their performance. Validation results with different data sets indicate that the proposed direct identification dynamic model using the recurrent neural network can be used to predict the damping force accurately and the inverse identification dynamic model using the recurrent neural network can act as a damper controller to generate the command voltage when the MR fluid damper is used in a semi-active mode.

Predicting The Type Of Pregnancy Using Flexible Discriminate Analysis And Artificial Neural Networks: A Comparison Study

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hooman, A.; Mohammadzadeh, M.

2008-01-01

Some medical and epidemiological surveys have been designed to predict a nominal response variable with several levels. With regard to the type of pregnancy there are four possible states: wanted, unwanted by wife, unwanted by husband and unwanted by couple. In this paper, we have predicted the type of pregnancy, as well as the factors influencing it using three different models and comparing them. Regarding the type of pregnancy with several levels, we developed a multinomial logistic regression, a neural network and a flexible discrimination based on the data and compared their results using tow statistical indices: Surface under curve (ROC) and kappa coefficient. Based on these tow indices, flexible discrimination proved to be a better fit for prediction on data in comparison to other methods. When the relations among variables are complex, one can use flexible discrimination instead of multinomial logistic regression and neural network to predict the nominal response variables with several levels in order to gain more accurate predictions

How Do Neural Networks Enhance the Predictability of Central European Stock Returns?

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Baruník, Jozef

2008-01-01

Roč. 58, 7-8 (2008), s. 359-376 ISSN 0015-1920 R&D Projects: GA ČR(CZ) GA402/06/1417 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z10750506 Keywords : emerging stock market s * predictability of stock returns * neural networks Subject RIV: AH - Economics Impact factor: 0.275, year: 2008 http://library.utia.cas.cz/separaty/2008/E/barunik-0314837.pdf

Artificial neural networks in prediction of mechanical behavior of concrete at high temperature

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mukherjee, A.; Nag Biswas, S.

1997-01-01

The behavior of concrete structures that are exposed to extreme thermo-mechanical loading is an issue of great importance in nuclear engineering. The mechanical behavior of concrete at high temperature is non-linear. The properties that regulate its response are highly temperature dependent and extremely complex. In addition, the constituent materials, e.g. aggregates, influence the response significantly. Attempts have been made to trace the stress-strain curve through mathematical models and rheological models. However, it has been difficult to include all the contributing factors in the mathematical model. This paper examines a new programming paradigm, artificial neural networks, for the problem. Implementing a feedforward network and backpropagation algorithm the stress-strain relationship of the material is captured. The neural networks for the prediction of uniaxial behavior of concrete at high temperature has been presented here. The results of the present investigation are very encouraging. (orig.)

Morphological neural networks

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Ritter, G.X.; Sussner, P. [Univ. of Florida, Gainesville, FL (United States)

1996-12-31

The theory of artificial neural networks has been successfully applied to a wide variety of pattern recognition problems. In this theory, the first step in computing the next state of a neuron or in performing the next layer neural network computation involves the linear operation of multiplying neural values by their synaptic strengths and adding the results. Thresholding usually follows the linear operation in order to provide for nonlinearity of the network. In this paper we introduce a novel class of neural networks, called morphological neural networks, in which the operations of multiplication and addition are replaced by addition and maximum (or minimum), respectively. By taking the maximum (or minimum) of sums instead of the sum of products, morphological network computation is nonlinear before thresholding. As a consequence, the properties of morphological neural networks are drastically different than those of traditional neural network models. In this paper we consider some of these differences and provide some particular examples of morphological neural network.

Development of classification and prediction methods of critical heat flux using fuzzy theory and artificial neural networks

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Moon, Sang Ki

1995-02-01

This thesis applies new information techniques, artificial neural networks, (ANNs) and fuzzy theory, to the investigation of the critical heat flux (CHF) phenomenon for water flow in vertical round tubes. The work performed are (a) classification and prediction of CHF based on fuzzy clustering and ANN, (b) prediction and parametric trends analysis of CHF using ANN with the introduction of dimensionless parameters, and (c) detection of CHF occurrence using fuzzy rule and spatiotemporal neural network (STN). Fuzzy clustering and ANN are used for classification and prediction of the CHF using primary system parameters. The fuzzy clustering classifies the experimental CHF data into a few data clusters (data groups) according to the data characteristics. After classification of the experimental data, the characteristics of the resulted clusters are discussed with emphasis on the distribution of the experimental conditions and physical mechanisms. The CHF data in each group are trained in an artificial neural network to predict the CHF. The artificial neural network adjusts the weight so as to minimize the prediction error within the corresponding cluster. Application of the proposed method to the KAIST CHF data bank shows good prediction capability of the CHF, better than other existing methods. Parametric trends of the CHF are analyzed by applying artificial neural networks to a CHF data base for water flow in uniformly heated vertical round tubes. The analyses are performed from three viewpoints, i.e., for fixed inlet conditions, for fixed exit conditions, and based on local conditions hypothesis. In order to remove the necessity of data classification, Katto and Groeneveld et al.'s dimensionless parameters are introduced in training the ANNs with the experimental CHF data. The trained ANNs predict the CHF better than any other conventional correlations, showing RMS error of 8.9%, 13.1%, and 19.3% for fixed inlet conditions, for fixed exit conditions, and for local

The fatigue life prediction of aluminium alloy using genetic algorithm and neural network

Science.gov (United States)

Susmikanti, Mike

2013-09-01

The behavior of the fatigue life of the industrial materials is very important. In many cases, the material with experiencing fatigue life cannot be avoided, however, there are many ways to control their behavior. Many investigations of the fatigue life phenomena of alloys have been done, but it is high cost and times consuming computation. This paper report the modeling and simulation approaches to predict the fatigue life behavior of Aluminum Alloys and resolves some problems of computation. First, the simulation using genetic algorithm was utilized to optimize the load to obtain the stress values. These results can be used to provide N-cycle fatigue life of the material. Furthermore, the experimental data was applied as input data in the neural network learning, while the samples data were applied for testing of the training data. Finally, the multilayer perceptron algorithm is applied to predict whether the given data sets in accordance with the fatigue life of the alloy. To achieve rapid convergence, the Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm was also employed. The simulations results shows that the fatigue behaviors of aluminum under pressure can be predicted. In addition, implementation of neural networks successfully identified a model for material fatigue life.

Application of neural networks to prediction of phase transport characteristics in high-pressure two-phase turbulent bubbly flows

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yang, A.-S.; Kuo, T.-C.; Ling, P.-H.

2003-01-01

The phase transport phenomenon of the high-pressure two-phase turbulent bubbly flow involves complicated interfacial interactions of the mass, momentum, and energy transfer processes between phases, revealing that an enormous effort is required in characterizing the liquid-gas flow behavior. Nonetheless, the instantaneous information of bubbly flow properties is often desired for many industrial applications. This investigation aims to demonstrate the successful use of neural networks in the real-time determination of two-phase flow properties at elevated pressures. Three back-propagation neural networks, trained with the simulation results of a comprehensive theoretical model, are established to predict the transport characteristics (specifically the distributions of void-fraction and axial liquid-gas velocities) of upward turbulent bubbly pipe flows at pressures covering 3.5-7.0 MPa. Comparisons of the predictions with the test target vectors indicate that the averaged root-mean-squared (RMS) error for each one of three back-propagation neural networks is within 4.59%. In addition, this study appraises the effects of different network parameters, including the number of hidden nodes, the type of transfer function, the number of training pairs, the learning rate-increasing ratio, the learning rate-decreasing ratio, and the momentum value, on the training quality of neural networks.

Optimization of blanking process using neural network simulation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hambli, R.

2005-01-01

The present work describes a methodology using the finite element method and neural network simulation in order to predict the optimum punch-die clearance during sheet metal blanking processes. A damage model is used in order to describe crack initiation and propagation into the sheet. The proposed approach combines predictive finite element and neural network modeling of the leading blanking parameters. Numerical results obtained by finite element computation including damage and fracture modeling were utilized to train the developed simulation environment based on back propagation neural network modeling. The comparative study between the numerical results and the experimental ones shows the good agreement. (author)

Artificial Neural Networks: A New Approach for Predicting Application Behavior. AIR 2001 Annual Forum Paper.

Science.gov (United States)

Gonzalez, Julie M. Byers; DesJardins, Stephen L.

This paper examines how predictive modeling can be used to study application behavior. A relatively new technique, artificial neural networks (ANNs), was applied to help predict which students were likely to get into a large Research I university. Data were obtained from a university in Iowa. Two cohorts were used, each containing approximately…

Computationally efficient model predictive control algorithms a neural network approach

CERN Document Server

Ławryńczuk, Maciej

2014-01-01

This book thoroughly discusses computationally efficient (suboptimal) Model Predictive Control (MPC) techniques based on neural models. The subjects treated include: ·         A few types of suboptimal MPC algorithms in which a linear approximation of the model or of the predicted trajectory is successively calculated on-line and used for prediction. ·         Implementation details of the MPC algorithms for feedforward perceptron neural models, neural Hammerstein models, neural Wiener models and state-space neural models. ·         The MPC algorithms based on neural multi-models (inspired by the idea of predictive control). ·         The MPC algorithms with neural approximation with no on-line linearization. ·         The MPC algorithms with guaranteed stability and robustness. ·         Cooperation between the MPC algorithms and set-point optimization. Thanks to linearization (or neural approximation), the presented suboptimal algorithms do not require d...

Sensitive quantitative predictions of peptide-MHC binding by a 'Query by Committee' artificial neural network approach

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Buus, S.; Lauemoller, S.L.; Worning, Peder

2003-01-01

We have generated Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) capable of performing sensitive, quantitative predictions of peptide binding to the MHC class I molecule, HLA-A*0204. We have shown that such quantitative ANN are superior to conventional classification ANN, that have been trained to predict...

Predictive Modeling of Mechanical Properties of Welded Joints Based on Dynamic Fuzzy RBF Neural Network

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

ZHANG Yongzhi

2016-10-01

Full Text Available A dynamic fuzzy RBF neural network model was built to predict the mechanical properties of welded joints, and the purpose of the model was to overcome the shortcomings of static neural networks including structural identification, dynamic sample training and learning algorithm. The structure and parameters of the model are no longer head of default, dynamic adaptive adjustment in the training, suitable for dynamic sample data for learning, learning algorithm introduces hierarchical learning and fuzzy rule pruning strategy, to accelerate the training speed of model and make the model more compact. Simulation of the model was carried out by using three kinds of thickness and different process TC4 titanium alloy TIG welding test data. The results show that the model has higher prediction accuracy, which is suitable for predicting the mechanical properties of welded joints, and has opened up a new way for the on-line control of the welding process.

Machine Learning Topological Invariants with Neural Networks

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Pengfei; Shen, Huitao; Zhai, Hui

2018-02-01

In this Letter we supervisedly train neural networks to distinguish different topological phases in the context of topological band insulators. After training with Hamiltonians of one-dimensional insulators with chiral symmetry, the neural network can predict their topological winding numbers with nearly 100% accuracy, even for Hamiltonians with larger winding numbers that are not included in the training data. These results show a remarkable success that the neural network can capture the global and nonlinear topological features of quantum phases from local inputs. By opening up the neural network, we confirm that the network does learn the discrete version of the winding number formula. We also make a couple of remarks regarding the role of the symmetry and the opposite effect of regularization techniques when applying machine learning to physical systems.

Artificial neural network optimisation for monthly average daily global solar radiation prediction

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Alsina, Emanuel Federico; Bortolini, Marco; Gamberi, Mauro; Regattieri, Alberto

2016-01-01

Highlights: • Prediction of the monthly average daily global solar radiation over Italy. • Multi-location Artificial Neural Network (ANN) model: 45 locations considered. • Optimal ANN configuration with 7 input climatologic/geographical parameters. • Statistical indicators: MAPE, NRMSE, MPBE. - Abstract: The availability of reliable climatologic data is essential for multiple purposes in a wide set of anthropic activities and operative sectors. Frequently direct measures present spatial and temporal lacks so that predictive approaches become of interest. This paper focuses on the prediction of the Monthly Average Daily Global Solar Radiation (MADGSR) over Italy using Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs). Data from 45 locations compose the multi-location ANN training and testing sets. For each location, 13 input parameters are considered, including the geographical coordinates and the monthly values for the most frequently adopted climatologic parameters. A subset of 17 locations is used for ANN training, while the testing step is against data from the remaining 28 locations. Furthermore, the Automatic Relevance Determination method (ARD) is used to point out the most relevant input for the accurate MADGSR prediction. The ANN best configuration includes 7 parameters, only, i.e. Top of Atmosphere (TOA) radiation, day length, number of rainy days and average rainfall, latitude and altitude. The correlation performances, expressed through statistical indicators as the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE), range between 1.67% and 4.25%, depending on the number and type of the chosen input, representing a good solution compared to the current standards.

An overview of the numerical and neural network accosts of ocean wave prediction

Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

Mandal, S.; Prabaharan, N.

.8 1.2 1.6 Avg. Measured wave height (m) 0.0 0.4 0.8 1.2 1.6 Fo re ca ste d a vg . w av e h eig ht (m ) COPEDEC VI, 2003, Colombo, Sri Lanka 8 5. CONCLUSIONS The use of neural network for wave prediction will have future application...

Cascaded bidirectional recurrent neural networks for protein secondary structure prediction.

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, Jinmiao; Chaudhari, Narendra

2007-01-01

Protein secondary structure (PSS) prediction is an important topic in bioinformatics. Our study on a large set of non-homologous proteins shows that long-range interactions commonly exist and negatively affect PSS prediction. Besides, we also reveal strong correlations between secondary structure (SS) elements. In order to take into account the long-range interactions and SS-SS correlations, we propose a novel prediction system based on cascaded bidirectional recurrent neural network (BRNN). We compare the cascaded BRNN against another two BRNN architectures, namely the original BRNN architecture used for speech recognition as well as Pollastri's BRNN that was proposed for PSS prediction. Our cascaded BRNN achieves an overall three state accuracy Q3 of 74.38\\%, and reaches a high Segment OVerlap (SOV) of 66.0455. It outperforms the original BRNN and Pollastri's BRNN in both Q3 and SOV. Specifically, it improves the SOV score by 4-6%.

Neural networks and principle component analysis approaches to predict pile capacity in sand

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Benali A

2018-01-01

Full Text Available Determination of pile bearing capacity from the in-situ tests has developed considerably due to the significant development of their technology. The project presented in this paper is a combination of two approaches, artificial neural networks and main component analyses that allow the development of a neural network model that provides a more accurate prediction of axial load bearing capacity based on the SPT test data. The retropropagation multi-layer perceptron with Bayesian regularization (RB was used in this model. This was established by the incorporation of about 260 data, obtained from the published literature, of experimental programs for large displacement driven piles. The PCA method is proposed for compression and suppression of the correlation between these data. This will improve the performance of generalization of the model.

Applications of Artificial Neural Network for the Prediction of Pool Boiling Curves

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Su, Guanghui; Fukuda, K.; Morita, K.

2002-01-01

Artificial neural network (ANN) has the advantage that the best-fit correlations of experimental data will no longer be necessary for predicting unknowns from the known parameters. The ANN was applied to predict the pool boiling curves in this paper. The database of experimental data presented by Berenson, Dhuga et al., and Bui and Dhir etc. were used in the analysis. The database is subdivided in two subsets. The first subset is used to train the network and the second one is used to test the network after the training process. The input parameters of the ANN are: wall superheat ΔT w , surface roughness, steady/transient heating/transient cooling, subcooling, Surface inclination and pressure. The output parameter is heat flux q. The proposed methodology allows us to achieve the accuracy that satisfies the user's convergence criterion and it is suitable for pool boiling curve data processing. (authors)

Integrating neural network technology and noise analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Uhrig, R.E.; Oak Ridge National Lab., TN

1995-01-01

The integrated use of neural network and noise analysis technologies offers advantages not available by the use of either technology alone. The application of neural network technology to noise analysis offers an opportunity to expand the scope of problems where noise analysis is useful and unique ways in which the integration of these technologies can be used productively. The two-sensor technique, in which the responses of two sensors to an unknown driving source are related, is used to demonstration such integration. The relationship between power spectral densities (PSDs) of accelerometer signals is derived theoretically using noise analysis to demonstrate its uniqueness. This relationship is modeled from experimental data using a neural network when the system is working properly, and the actual PSD of one sensor is compared with the PSD of that sensor predicted by the neural network using the PSD of the other sensor as an input. A significant deviation between the actual and predicted PSDs indicate that system is changing (i.e., failing). Experiments carried out on check values and bearings illustrate the usefulness of the methodology developed. (Author)

Prediction of slope stability using artificial neural network (case study: Noabad, Mazandaran, Iran)

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Choobbasti, A J; Farrokhzad, F; Barari, A

2009-01-01

Investigations of failures of soil masses are subjects touching both geology and engineering. These investigations call the joint efforts of engineering geologists and geotechnical engineers. Geotechnical engineers have to pay particular attention to geology, ground water, and shear strength of soils in assessing slope stability. Artificial neural networks (ANNs) are very sophisticated modeling techniques, capable of modeling extremely complex functions. In particular, neural networks are nonlinear. In this research, with respect to the above advantages, ANN systems consisting of multilayer perceptron networks are developed to predict slope stability in a specified location, based on the available site investigation data from Noabad, Mazandaran, Iran. Several important parameters, including total stress, effective stress, angle of slope, coefficient of cohesion, internal friction angle, and horizontal coefficient of earthquake, were used as the input parameters, while the slope stability was the output parameter. The results are compared with the classical methods of limit equilibrium to check the ANN model's validity. (author)

water demand prediction using artificial neural network

African Journals Online (AJOL)

user

2017-01-01

Jan 1, 2017 ... Interface for activation and deactivation of valves. •. Interface demand ... process could be done and monitored at the computer terminal as expected of a .... [15] Arbib, M. A.The Handbook of Brain Theory and Neural. Networks.

Statistical physics of interacting neural networks

Science.gov (United States)

Kinzel, Wolfgang; Metzler, Richard; Kanter, Ido

2001-12-01

Recent results on the statistical physics of time series generation and prediction are presented. A neural network is trained on quasi-periodic and chaotic sequences and overlaps to the sequence generator as well as the prediction errors are calculated numerically. For each network there exists a sequence for which it completely fails to make predictions. Two interacting networks show a transition to perfect synchronization. A pool of interacting networks shows good coordination in the minority game-a model of competition in a closed market. Finally, as a demonstration, a perceptron predicts bit sequences produced by human beings.

Predicting tool life in turning operations using neural networks and image processing

Science.gov (United States)

Mikołajczyk, T.; Nowicki, K.; Bustillo, A.; Yu Pimenov, D.

2018-05-01

A two-step method is presented for the automatic prediction of tool life in turning operations. First, experimental data are collected for three cutting edges under the same constant processing conditions. In these experiments, the parameter of tool wear, VB, is measured with conventional methods and the same parameter is estimated using Neural Wear, a customized software package that combines flank wear image recognition and Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs). Second, an ANN model of tool life is trained with the data collected from the first two cutting edges and the subsequent model is evaluated on two different subsets for the third cutting edge: the first subset is obtained from the direct measurement of tool wear and the second is obtained from the Neural Wear software that estimates tool wear using edge images. Although the complete-automated solution, Neural Wear software for tool wear recognition plus the ANN model of tool life prediction, presented a slightly higher error than the direct measurements, it was within the same range and can meet all industrial requirements. These results confirm that the combination of image recognition software and ANN modelling could potentially be developed into a useful industrial tool for low-cost estimation of tool life in turning operations.

Reynolds averaged turbulence modelling using deep neural networks with embedded invariance

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ling, Julia; Kurzawski, Andrew; Templeton, Jeremy

2016-01-01

There exists significant demand for improved Reynolds-averaged Navier–Stokes (RANS) turbulence models that are informed by and can represent a richer set of turbulence physics. This paper presents a method of using deep neural networks to learn a model for the Reynolds stress anisotropy tensor from high-fidelity simulation data. A novel neural network architecture is proposed which uses a multiplicative layer with an invariant tensor basis to embed Galilean invariance into the predicted anisotropy tensor. It is demonstrated that this neural network architecture provides improved prediction accuracy compared with a generic neural network architecture that does not embed this invariance property. Furthermore, the Reynolds stress anisotropy predictions of this invariant neural network are propagated through to the velocity field for two test cases. For both test cases, significant improvement versus baseline RANS linear eddy viscosity and nonlinear eddy viscosity models is demonstrated.

Prediction of zeolite-cement-sand unconfined compressive strength using polynomial neural network

Science.gov (United States)

MolaAbasi, H.; Shooshpasha, I.

2016-04-01

The improvement of local soils with cement and zeolite can provide great benefits, including strengthening slopes in slope stability problems, stabilizing problematic soils and preventing soil liquefaction. Recently, dosage methodologies are being developed for improved soils based on a rational criterion as it exists in concrete technology. There are numerous earlier studies showing the possibility of relating Unconfined Compressive Strength (UCS) and Cemented sand (CS) parameters (voids/cement ratio) as a power function fits. Taking into account the fact that the existing equations are incapable of estimating UCS for zeolite cemented sand mixture (ZCS) well, artificial intelligence methods are used for forecasting them. Polynomial-type neural network is applied to estimate the UCS from more simply determined index properties such as zeolite and cement content, porosity as well as curing time. In order to assess the merits of the proposed approach, a total number of 216 unconfined compressive tests have been done. A comparison is carried out between the experimentally measured UCS with the predictions in order to evaluate the performance of the current method. The results demonstrate that generalized polynomial-type neural network has a great ability for prediction of the UCS. At the end sensitivity analysis of the polynomial model is applied to study the influence of input parameters on model output. The sensitivity analysis reveals that cement and zeolite content have significant influence on predicting UCS.

Neural Networks

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Smith, Patrick I.

2003-01-01

Physicists use large detectors to measure particles created in high-energy collisions at particle accelerators. These detectors typically produce signals indicating either where ionization occurs along the path of the particle, or where energy is deposited by the particle. The data produced by these signals is fed into pattern recognition programs to try to identify what particles were produced, and to measure the energy and direction of these particles. Ideally, there are many techniques used in this pattern recognition software. One technique, neural networks, is particularly suitable for identifying what type of particle caused by a set of energy deposits. Neural networks can derive meaning from complicated or imprecise data, extract patterns, and detect trends that are too complex to be noticed by either humans or other computer related processes. To assist in the advancement of this technology, Physicists use a tool kit to experiment with several neural network techniques. The goal of this research is interface a neural network tool kit into Java Analysis Studio (JAS3), an application that allows data to be analyzed from any experiment. As the final result, a physicist will have the ability to train, test, and implement a neural network with the desired output while using JAS3 to analyze the results or output. Before an implementation of a neural network can take place, a firm understanding of what a neural network is and how it works is beneficial. A neural network is an artificial representation of the human brain that tries to simulate the learning process [5]. It is also important to think of the word artificial in that definition as computer programs that use calculations during the learning process. In short, a neural network learns by representative examples. Perhaps the easiest way to describe the way neural networks learn is to explain how the human brain functions. The human brain contains billions of neural cells that are responsible for processing

Comparison of logistic regression and artificial neural network in low back pain prediction: second national health survey.

Science.gov (United States)

Parsaeian, M; Mohammad, K; Mahmoudi, M; Zeraati, H

2012-01-01

The purpose of this investigation was to compare empirically predictive ability of an artificial neural network with a logistic regression in prediction of low back pain. Data from the second national health survey were considered in this investigation. This data includes the information of low back pain and its associated risk factors among Iranian people aged 15 years and older. Artificial neural network and logistic regression models were developed using a set of 17294 data and they were validated in a test set of 17295 data. Hosmer and Lemeshow recommendation for model selection was used in fitting the logistic regression. A three-layer perceptron with 9 inputs, 3 hidden and 1 output neurons was employed. The efficiency of two models was compared by receiver operating characteristic analysis, root mean square and -2 Loglikelihood criteria. The area under the ROC curve (SE), root mean square and -2Loglikelihood of the logistic regression was 0.752 (0.004), 0.3832 and 14769.2, respectively. The area under the ROC curve (SE), root mean square and -2Loglikelihood of the artificial neural network was 0.754 (0.004), 0.3770 and 14757.6, respectively. Based on these three criteria, artificial neural network would give better performance than logistic regression. Although, the difference is statistically significant, it does not seem to be clinically significant.

Fluvial facies reservoir productivity prediction method based on principal component analysis and artificial neural network

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Pengyu Gao

2016-03-01

Full Text Available It is difficult to forecast the well productivity because of the complexity of vertical and horizontal developments in fluvial facies reservoir. This paper proposes a method based on Principal Component Analysis and Artificial Neural Network to predict well productivity of fluvial facies reservoir. The method summarizes the statistical reservoir factors and engineering factors that affect the well productivity, extracts information by applying the principal component analysis method and approximates arbitrary functions of the neural network to realize an accurate and efficient prediction on the fluvial facies reservoir well productivity. This method provides an effective way for forecasting the productivity of fluvial facies reservoir which is affected by multi-factors and complex mechanism. The study result shows that this method is a practical, effective, accurate and indirect productivity forecast method and is suitable for field application.

Prediction of the location and type of beta-turns in proteins using neural networks.

OpenAIRE

Shepherd, A. J.; Gorse, D.; Thornton, J. M.

1999-01-01

A neural network has been used to predict both the location and the type of beta-turns in a set of 300 nonhomologous protein domains. A substantial improvement in prediction accuracy compared with previous methods has been achieved by incorporating secondary structure information in the input data. The total percentage of residues correctly classified as beta-turn or not-beta-turn is around 75% with predicted secondary structure information. More significantly, the method gives a Matthews cor...

Optimal artificial neural network architecture selection for performance prediction of compact heat exchanger with the EBaLM-OTR technique

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Wijayasekara, Dumidu, E-mail: wija2589@vandals.uidaho.edu [Department of Computer Science, University of Idaho, 1776 Science Center Drive, Idaho Falls, ID 83402 (United States); Manic, Milos [Department of Computer Science, University of Idaho, 1776 Science Center Drive, Idaho Falls, ID 83402 (United States); Sabharwall, Piyush [Idaho National Laboratory, Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Utgikar, Vivek [Department of Chemical Engineering, University of Idaho, Idaho Falls, ID 83402 (United States)

2011-07-15

Highlights: > Performance prediction of PCHE using artificial neural networks. > Evaluating artificial neural network performance for PCHE modeling. > Selection of over-training resilient artificial neural networks. > Artificial neural network architecture selection for modeling problems with small data sets. - Abstract: Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) have been used in the past to predict the performance of printed circuit heat exchangers (PCHE) with satisfactory accuracy. Typically published literature has focused on optimizing ANN using a training dataset to train the network and a testing dataset to evaluate it. Although this may produce outputs that agree with experimental results, there is a risk of over-training or over-learning the network rather than generalizing it, which should be the ultimate goal. An over-trained network is able to produce good results with the training dataset but fails when new datasets with subtle changes are introduced. In this paper we present EBaLM-OTR (error back propagation and Levenberg-Marquardt algorithms for over training resilience) technique, which is based on a previously discussed method of selecting neural network architecture that uses a separate validation set to evaluate different network architectures based on mean square error (MSE), and standard deviation of MSE. The method uses k-fold cross validation. Therefore in order to select the optimal architecture for the problem, the dataset is divided into three parts which are used to train, validate and test each network architecture. Then each architecture is evaluated according to their generalization capability and capability to conform to original data. The method proved to be a comprehensive tool in identifying the weaknesses and advantages of different network architectures. The method also highlighted the fact that the architecture with the lowest training error is not always the most generalized and therefore not the optimal. Using the method the testing

Optimal artificial neural network architecture selection for performance prediction of compact heat exchanger with the EBaLM-OTR technique

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wijayasekara, Dumidu; Manic, Milos; Sabharwall, Piyush; Utgikar, Vivek

2011-01-01

Highlights: → Performance prediction of PCHE using artificial neural networks. → Evaluating artificial neural network performance for PCHE modeling. → Selection of over-training resilient artificial neural networks. → Artificial neural network architecture selection for modeling problems with small data sets. - Abstract: Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) have been used in the past to predict the performance of printed circuit heat exchangers (PCHE) with satisfactory accuracy. Typically published literature has focused on optimizing ANN using a training dataset to train the network and a testing dataset to evaluate it. Although this may produce outputs that agree with experimental results, there is a risk of over-training or over-learning the network rather than generalizing it, which should be the ultimate goal. An over-trained network is able to produce good results with the training dataset but fails when new datasets with subtle changes are introduced. In this paper we present EBaLM-OTR (error back propagation and Levenberg-Marquardt algorithms for over training resilience) technique, which is based on a previously discussed method of selecting neural network architecture that uses a separate validation set to evaluate different network architectures based on mean square error (MSE), and standard deviation of MSE. The method uses k-fold cross validation. Therefore in order to select the optimal architecture for the problem, the dataset is divided into three parts which are used to train, validate and test each network architecture. Then each architecture is evaluated according to their generalization capability and capability to conform to original data. The method proved to be a comprehensive tool in identifying the weaknesses and advantages of different network architectures. The method also highlighted the fact that the architecture with the lowest training error is not always the most generalized and therefore not the optimal. Using the method the

Ground Motion Prediction Model Using Artificial Neural Network

Science.gov (United States)

Dhanya, J.; Raghukanth, S. T. G.

2018-03-01

This article focuses on developing a ground motion prediction equation based on artificial neural network (ANN) technique for shallow crustal earthquakes. A hybrid technique combining genetic algorithm and Levenberg-Marquardt technique is used for training the model. The present model is developed to predict peak ground velocity, and 5% damped spectral acceleration. The input parameters for the prediction are moment magnitude ( M w), closest distance to rupture plane ( R rup), shear wave velocity in the region ( V s30) and focal mechanism ( F). A total of 13,552 ground motion records from 288 earthquakes provided by the updated NGA-West2 database released by Pacific Engineering Research Center are utilized to develop the model. The ANN architecture considered for the model consists of 192 unknowns including weights and biases of all the interconnected nodes. The performance of the model is observed to be within the prescribed error limits. In addition, the results from the study are found to be comparable with the existing relations in the global database. The developed model is further demonstrated by estimating site-specific response spectra for Shimla city located in Himalayan region.

Prediction of friction factor of pure water flowing inside vertical smooth and microfin tubes by using artificial neural networks

Science.gov (United States)

Çebi, A.; Akdoğan, E.; Celen, A.; Dalkilic, A. S.

2017-02-01

An artificial neural network (ANN) model of friction factor in smooth and microfin tubes under heating, cooling and isothermal conditions was developed in this study. Data used in ANN was taken from a vertically positioned heat exchanger experimental setup. Multi-layered feed-forward neural network with backpropagation algorithm, radial basis function networks and hybrid PSO-neural network algorithm were applied to the database. Inputs were the ratio of cross sectional flow area to hydraulic diameter, experimental condition number depending on isothermal, heating, or cooling conditions and mass flow rate while the friction factor was the output of the constructed system. It was observed that such neural network based system could effectively predict the friction factor values of the flows regardless of their tube types. A dependency analysis to determine the strongest parameter that affected the network and database was also performed and tube geometry was found to be the strongest parameter of all as a result of analysis.

Modelling for Understanding AND for Prediction/Classification--The Power of Neural Networks in Research

Science.gov (United States)

Cascallar, Eduardo; Musso, Mariel; Kyndt, Eva; Dochy, Filip

2014-01-01

Two articles, Edelsbrunner and, Schneider (2013), and Nokelainen and Silander (2014) comment on Musso, Kyndt, Cascallar, and Dochy (2013). Several relevant issues are raised and some important clarifications are made in response to both commentaries. Predictive systems based on artificial neural networks continue to be the focus of current…

Long short-term memory neural network for air pollutant concentration predictions: Method development and evaluation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Li, Xiang; Peng, Ling; Yao, Xiaojing; Cui, Shaolong; Hu, Yuan; You, Chengzeng; Chi, Tianhe

2017-01-01

Air pollutant concentration forecasting is an effective method of protecting public health by providing an early warning against harmful air pollutants. However, existing methods of air pollutant concentration prediction fail to effectively model long-term dependencies, and most neglect spatial correlations. In this paper, a novel long short-term memory neural network extended (LSTME) model that inherently considers spatiotemporal correlations is proposed for air pollutant concentration prediction. Long short-term memory (LSTM) layers were used to automatically extract inherent useful features from historical air pollutant data, and auxiliary data, including meteorological data and time stamp data, were merged into the proposed model to enhance the performance. Hourly PM 2.5 (particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter less than or equal to 2.5 μm) concentration data collected at 12 air quality monitoring stations in Beijing City from Jan/01/2014 to May/28/2016 were used to validate the effectiveness of the proposed LSTME model. Experiments were performed using the spatiotemporal deep learning (STDL) model, the time delay neural network (TDNN) model, the autoregressive moving average (ARMA) model, the support vector regression (SVR) model, and the traditional LSTM NN model, and a comparison of the results demonstrated that the LSTME model is superior to the other statistics-based models. Additionally, the use of auxiliary data improved model performance. For the one-hour prediction tasks, the proposed model performed well and exhibited a mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) of 11.93%. In addition, we conducted multiscale predictions over different time spans and achieved satisfactory performance, even for 13–24 h prediction tasks (MAPE = 31.47%). - Highlights: • Regional air pollutant concentration shows an obvious spatiotemporal correlation. • Our prediction model presents superior performance. • Climate data and metadata can significantly

A neural network - based algorithm for predicting stone - free status after ESWL therapy.

Science.gov (United States)

Seckiner, Ilker; Seckiner, Serap; Sen, Haluk; Bayrak, Omer; Dogan, Kazim; Erturhan, Sakip

2017-01-01

The prototype artificial neural network (ANN) model was developed using data from patients with renal stone, in order to predict stone-free status and to help in planning treatment with Extracorporeal Shock Wave Lithotripsy (ESWL) for kidney stones. Data were collected from the 203 patients including gender, single or multiple nature of the stone, location of the stone, infundibulopelvic angle primary or secondary nature of the stone, status of hydronephrosis, stone size after ESWL, age, size, skin to stone distance, stone density and creatinine, for eleven variables. Regression analysis and the ANN method were applied to predict treatment success using the same series of data. Subsequently, patients were divided into three groups by neural network software, in order to implement the ANN: training group (n=139), validation group (n=32), and the test group (n=32). ANN analysis demonstrated that the prediction accuracy of the stone-free rate was 99.25% in the training group, 85.48% in the validation group, and 88.70% in the test group. Successful results were obtained to predict the stone-free rate, with the help of the ANN model designed by using a series of data collected from real patients in whom ESWL was implemented to help in planning treatment for kidney stones. Copyright® by the International Brazilian Journal of Urology.

Reliability analysis of C-130 turboprop engine components using artificial neural network

Science.gov (United States)

Qattan, Nizar A.

In this study, we predict the failure rate of Lockheed C-130 Engine Turbine. More than thirty years of local operational field data were used for failure rate prediction and validation. The Weibull regression model and the Artificial Neural Network model including (feed-forward back-propagation, radial basis neural network, and multilayer perceptron neural network model); will be utilized to perform this study. For this purpose, the thesis will be divided into five major parts. First part deals with Weibull regression model to predict the turbine general failure rate, and the rate of failures that require overhaul maintenance. The second part will cover the Artificial Neural Network (ANN) model utilizing the feed-forward back-propagation algorithm as a learning rule. The MATLAB package will be used in order to build and design a code to simulate the given data, the inputs to the neural network are the independent variables, the output is the general failure rate of the turbine, and the failures which required overhaul maintenance. In the third part we predict the general failure rate of the turbine and the failures which require overhaul maintenance, using radial basis neural network model on MATLAB tool box. In the fourth part we compare the predictions of the feed-forward back-propagation model, with that of Weibull regression model, and radial basis neural network model. The results show that the failure rate predicted by the feed-forward back-propagation artificial neural network model is closer in agreement with radial basis neural network model compared with the actual field-data, than the failure rate predicted by the Weibull model. By the end of the study, we forecast the general failure rate of the Lockheed C-130 Engine Turbine, the failures which required overhaul maintenance and six categorical failures using multilayer perceptron neural network (MLP) model on DTREG commercial software. The results also give an insight into the reliability of the engine

WATER DEMAND PREDICTION USING ARTIFICIAL NEURAL ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

This paper presents Hourly water demand prediction at the demand nodes of a water distribution network using NeuNet Pro 2.3 neural network software and the monitoring and control of water distribution using supervisory control. The case study is the Laminga Water Treatment Plant and its water distribution network, Jos.

Improved Local Weather Forecasts Using Artificial Neural Networks

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Wollsen, Morten Gill; Jørgensen, Bo Nørregaard

2015-01-01

Solar irradiance and temperature forecasts are used in many different control systems. Such as intelligent climate control systems in commercial greenhouses, where the solar irradiance affects the use of supplemental lighting. This paper proposes a novel method to predict the forthcoming weather...... using an artificial neural network. The neural network used is a NARX network, which is known to model non-linear systems well. The predictions are compared to both a design reference year as well as commercial weather forecasts based upon numerical modelling. The results presented in this paper show...

An artificial neural network approach and sensitivity analysis in predicting skeletal muscle forces.

Science.gov (United States)

Vilimek, Miloslav

2014-01-01

This paper presents the use of an artificial neural network (NN) approach for predicting the muscle forces around the elbow joint. The main goal was to create an artificial NN which could predict the musculotendon forces for any general muscle without significant errors. The input parameters for the network were morphological and anatomical musculotendon parameters, plus an activation level experimentally measured during a flexion/extension movement in the elbow. The muscle forces calculated by the 'Virtual Muscle System' provide the output. The cross-correlation coefficient expressing the ability of an artificial NN to predict the "true" force was in the range 0.97-0.98. A sensitivity analysis was used to eliminate the less sensitive inputs, and the final number of inputs for a sufficient prediction was nine. A variant of an artificial NN for a single specific muscle was also studied. The artificial NN for one specific muscle gives better results than a network for general muscles. This method is a good alternative to other approaches to calculation of muscle force.

assessment of neural networks performance in modeling rainfall ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Sholagberu

neural network architecture for precipitation prediction of Myanmar, World Academy of. Science, Engineering and Technology, 48, pp. 130 – 134. Kumarasiri, A.D. and Sonnadara, D.U.J. (2006). Rainfall forecasting: an artificial neural network approach, Proceedings of the Technical Sessions,. 22, pp. 1-13 Institute of Physics ...

Probabilistic Wind Power Forecasting with Hybrid Artificial Neural Networks

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Wan, Can; Song, Yonghua; Xu, Zhao

2016-01-01

probabilities of prediction errors provide an alternative yet effective solution. This article proposes a hybrid artificial neural network approach to generate prediction intervals of wind power. An extreme learning machine is applied to conduct point prediction of wind power and estimate model uncertainties...... via a bootstrap technique. Subsequently, the maximum likelihood estimation method is employed to construct a distinct neural network to estimate the noise variance of forecasting results. The proposed approach has been tested on multi-step forecasting of high-resolution (10-min) wind power using...... actual wind power data from Denmark. The numerical results demonstrate that the proposed hybrid artificial neural network approach is effective and efficient for probabilistic forecasting of wind power and has high potential in practical applications....

Prediction of geomagnetic storm using neural networks: Comparison of the efficiency of the Satellite and ground-based input parameters

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Stepanova, Marina; Antonova, Elizavieta; Munos-Uribe, F A; Gordo, S L Gomez; Torres-Sanchez, M V

2008-01-01

Different kinds of neural networks have established themselves as an effective tool in the prediction of different geomagnetic indices, including the Dst being the most important constituent for determination of the impact of Space Weather on the human life. Feed-forward networks with one hidden layer are used to forecast the Dst variation, using separately the solar wind paramenters, polar cap index, and auroral electrojet index as input parameters. It was found that in all three cases the storm-time intervals were predicted much more precisely as quite time intervals. The majority of cross-correlation coefficients between predicted and observed Dst of strong geomagnetic storms are situated between 0.8 and 0.9. Changes in the neural network architecture, including the number of nodes in the input and hidden layers and the transfer functions between them lead to an improvement of a network performance up to 10%.

Deep Neural Network for Structural Prediction and Lane Detection in Traffic Scene.

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Jun; Mei, Xue; Prokhorov, Danil; Tao, Dacheng

2017-03-01

Hierarchical neural networks have been shown to be effective in learning representative image features and recognizing object classes. However, most existing networks combine the low/middle level cues for classification without accounting for any spatial structures. For applications such as understanding a scene, how the visual cues are spatially distributed in an image becomes essential for successful analysis. This paper extends the framework of deep neural networks by accounting for the structural cues in the visual signals. In particular, two kinds of neural networks have been proposed. First, we develop a multitask deep convolutional network, which simultaneously detects the presence of the target and the geometric attributes (location and orientation) of the target with respect to the region of interest. Second, a recurrent neuron layer is adopted for structured visual detection. The recurrent neurons can deal with the spatial distribution of visible cues belonging to an object whose shape or structure is difficult to explicitly define. Both the networks are demonstrated by the practical task of detecting lane boundaries in traffic scenes. The multitask convolutional neural network provides auxiliary geometric information to help the subsequent modeling of the given lane structures. The recurrent neural network automatically detects lane boundaries, including those areas containing no marks, without any explicit prior knowledge or secondary modeling.

Liquefaction Microzonation of Babol City Using Artificial Neural Network

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Farrokhzad, F.; Choobbasti, A.J.; Barari, Amin

2012-01-01

that will be less susceptible to damage during earthquakes. The scope of present study is to prepare the liquefaction microzonation map for the Babol city based on Seed and Idriss (1983) method using artificial neural network. Artificial neural network (ANN) is one of the artificial intelligence (AI) approaches...... microzonation map is produced for research area. Based on the obtained results, it can be stated that the trained neural network is capable in prediction of liquefaction potential with an acceptable level of confidence. At the end, zoning of the city is carried out based on the prediction of liquefaction...... that can be classified as machine learning. Simplified methods have been practiced by researchers to assess nonlinear liquefaction potential of soil. In order to address the collective knowledge built-up in conventional liquefaction engineering, an alternative general regression neural network model...

Prediction of some physical and drying properties of terebinth fruit (Pistacia atlantica L.) using Artificial Neural Networks.

Science.gov (United States)

Kaveh, Mohammad; Chayjan, Reza Amiri

2014-01-01

Drying of terebinth fruit was conducted to provide microbiological stability, reduce product deterioration due to chemical reactions, facilitate storage and lower transportation costs. Because terebinth fruit is susceptible to heat, the selection of a suitable drying technology is a challenging task. Artificial neural networks (ANNs) are used as a nonlinear mapping structures for modelling and prediction of some physical and drying properties of terebinth fruit. Drying characteristics of terebinth fruit with an initial moisture content of 1.16 (d.b.) was studied in an infrared fluidized bed dryer. Different levels of air temperatures (40, 55 and 70°C), air velocities (0.93, 1.76 and 2.6 m/s) and infrared (IR) radiation powers (500, 1000 and 1500 W) were applied. In the present study, the application of Artificial Neural Network (ANN) for predicting the drying moisture diffusivity, energy consumption, shrinkage, drying rate and moisture ratio (output parameter for ANN modelling) was investigated. Air temperature, air velocity, IR radiation and drying time were considered as input parameters. The results revealed that to predict drying rate and moisture ratio a network with the TANSIG-LOGSIG-TANSIG transfer function and Levenberg-Marquardt (LM) training algorithm made the most accurate predictions for the terebinth fruit drying. The best results for ANN at predications were R2 = 0.9678 for drying rate, R2 = 0.9945 for moisture ratio, R2 = 0.9857 for moisture diffusivity and R2 = 0.9893 for energy consumption. Results indicated that artificial neural network can be used as an alternative approach for modelling and predicting of terebinth fruit drying parameters with high correlation. Also ANN can be used in optimization of the process.

A biological network-based regularized artificial neural network model for robust phenotype prediction from gene expression data.

Science.gov (United States)

Kang, Tianyu; Ding, Wei; Zhang, Luoyan; Ziemek, Daniel; Zarringhalam, Kourosh

2017-12-19

Stratification of patient subpopulations that respond favorably to treatment or experience and adverse reaction is an essential step toward development of new personalized therapies and diagnostics. It is currently feasible to generate omic-scale biological measurements for all patients in a study, providing an opportunity for machine learning models to identify molecular markers for disease diagnosis and progression. However, the high variability of genetic background in human populations hampers the reproducibility of omic-scale markers. In this paper, we develop a biological network-based regularized artificial neural network model for prediction of phenotype from transcriptomic measurements in clinical trials. To improve model sparsity and the overall reproducibility of the model, we incorporate regularization for simultaneous shrinkage of gene sets based on active upstream regulatory mechanisms into the model. We benchmark our method against various regression, support vector machines and artificial neural network models and demonstrate the ability of our method in predicting the clinical outcomes using clinical trial data on acute rejection in kidney transplantation and response to Infliximab in ulcerative colitis. We show that integration of prior biological knowledge into the classification as developed in this paper, significantly improves the robustness and generalizability of predictions to independent datasets. We provide a Java code of our algorithm along with a parsed version of the STRING DB database. In summary, we present a method for prediction of clinical phenotypes using baseline genome-wide expression data that makes use of prior biological knowledge on gene-regulatory interactions in order to increase robustness and reproducibility of omic-scale markers. The integrated group-wise regularization methods increases the interpretability of biological signatures and gives stable performance estimates across independent test sets.

Predicting carcinogenicity of diverse chemicals using probabilistic neural network modeling approaches

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Singh, Kunwar P., E-mail: kpsingh_52@yahoo.com [Academy of Scientific and Innovative Research, Council of Scientific and Industrial Research, New Delhi (India); Environmental Chemistry Division, CSIR-Indian Institute of Toxicology Research, Post Box 80, Mahatma Gandhi Marg, Lucknow 226 001 (India); Gupta, Shikha; Rai, Premanjali [Academy of Scientific and Innovative Research, Council of Scientific and Industrial Research, New Delhi (India); Environmental Chemistry Division, CSIR-Indian Institute of Toxicology Research, Post Box 80, Mahatma Gandhi Marg, Lucknow 226 001 (India)

2013-10-15

Robust global models capable of discriminating positive and non-positive carcinogens; and predicting carcinogenic potency of chemicals in rodents were developed. The dataset of 834 structurally diverse chemicals extracted from Carcinogenic Potency Database (CPDB) was used which contained 466 positive and 368 non-positive carcinogens. Twelve non-quantum mechanical molecular descriptors were derived. Structural diversity of the chemicals and nonlinearity in the data were evaluated using Tanimoto similarity index and Brock–Dechert–Scheinkman statistics. Probabilistic neural network (PNN) and generalized regression neural network (GRNN) models were constructed for classification and function optimization problems using the carcinogenicity end point in rat. Validation of the models was performed using the internal and external procedures employing a wide series of statistical checks. PNN constructed using five descriptors rendered classification accuracy of 92.09% in complete rat data. The PNN model rendered classification accuracies of 91.77%, 80.70% and 92.08% in mouse, hamster and pesticide data, respectively. The GRNN constructed with nine descriptors yielded correlation coefficient of 0.896 between the measured and predicted carcinogenic potency with mean squared error (MSE) of 0.44 in complete rat data. The rat carcinogenicity model (GRNN) applied to the mouse and hamster data yielded correlation coefficient and MSE of 0.758, 0.71 and 0.760, 0.46, respectively. The results suggest for wide applicability of the inter-species models in predicting carcinogenic potency of chemicals. Both the PNN and GRNN (inter-species) models constructed here can be useful tools in predicting the carcinogenicity of new chemicals for regulatory purposes. - Graphical abstract: Figure (a) shows classification accuracies (positive and non-positive carcinogens) in rat, mouse, hamster, and pesticide data yielded by optimal PNN model. Figure (b) shows generalization and predictive

Predicting Response to Neoadjuvant Chemotherapy with PET Imaging Using Convolutional Neural Networks.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Petros-Pavlos Ypsilantis

Full Text Available Imaging of cancer with 18F-fluorodeoxyglucose positron emission tomography (18F-FDG PET has become a standard component of diagnosis and staging in oncology, and is becoming more important as a quantitative monitor of individual response to therapy. In this article we investigate the challenging problem of predicting a patient's response to neoadjuvant chemotherapy from a single 18F-FDG PET scan taken prior to treatment. We take a "radiomics" approach whereby a large amount of quantitative features is automatically extracted from pretherapy PET images in order to build a comprehensive quantification of the tumor phenotype. While the dominant methodology relies on hand-crafted texture features, we explore the potential of automatically learning low- to high-level features directly from PET scans. We report on a study that compares the performance of two competing radiomics strategies: an approach based on state-of-the-art statistical classifiers using over 100 quantitative imaging descriptors, including texture features as well as standardized uptake values, and a convolutional neural network, 3S-CNN, trained directly from PET scans by taking sets of adjacent intra-tumor slices. Our experimental results, based on a sample of 107 patients with esophageal cancer, provide initial evidence that convolutional neural networks have the potential to extract PET imaging representations that are highly predictive of response to therapy. On this dataset, 3S-CNN achieves an average 80.7% sensitivity and 81.6% specificity in predicting non-responders, and outperforms other competing predictive models.

Predicting pressure drop in venturi scrubbers with artificial neural networks.

Science.gov (United States)

Nasseh, S; Mohebbi, A; Jeirani, Z; Sarrafi, A

2007-05-08

In this study a new approach based on artificial neural networks (ANNs) has been used to predict pressure drop in venturi scrubbers. The main parameters affecting the pressure drop are mainly the gas velocity in the throat of venturi scrubber (V(g)(th)), liquid to gas flow rate ratio (L/G), and axial distance of the venturi scrubber (z). Three sets of experimental data from five different venturi scrubbers have been applied to design three independent ANNs. Comparing the results of these ANNs and the calculated results from available models shows that the results of ANNs have a better agreement with experimental data.

Spatiotemporal Recurrent Convolutional Networks for Traffic Prediction in Transportation Networks

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Haiyang Yu

2017-06-01

Full Text Available Predicting large-scale transportation network traffic has become an important and challenging topic in recent decades. Inspired by the domain knowledge of motion prediction, in which the future motion of an object can be predicted based on previous scenes, we propose a network grid representation method that can retain the fine-scale structure of a transportation network. Network-wide traffic speeds are converted into a series of static images and input into a novel deep architecture, namely, spatiotemporal recurrent convolutional networks (SRCNs, for traffic forecasting. The proposed SRCNs inherit the advantages of deep convolutional neural networks (DCNNs and long short-term memory (LSTM neural networks. The spatial dependencies of network-wide traffic can be captured by DCNNs, and the temporal dynamics can be learned by LSTMs. An experiment on a Beijing transportation network with 278 links demonstrates that SRCNs outperform other deep learning-based algorithms in both short-term and long-term traffic prediction.

Spatiotemporal Recurrent Convolutional Networks for Traffic Prediction in Transportation Networks.

Science.gov (United States)

Yu, Haiyang; Wu, Zhihai; Wang, Shuqin; Wang, Yunpeng; Ma, Xiaolei

2017-06-26

Predicting large-scale transportation network traffic has become an important and challenging topic in recent decades. Inspired by the domain knowledge of motion prediction, in which the future motion of an object can be predicted based on previous scenes, we propose a network grid representation method that can retain the fine-scale structure of a transportation network. Network-wide traffic speeds are converted into a series of static images and input into a novel deep architecture, namely, spatiotemporal recurrent convolutional networks (SRCNs), for traffic forecasting. The proposed SRCNs inherit the advantages of deep convolutional neural networks (DCNNs) and long short-term memory (LSTM) neural networks. The spatial dependencies of network-wide traffic can be captured by DCNNs, and the temporal dynamics can be learned by LSTMs. An experiment on a Beijing transportation network with 278 links demonstrates that SRCNs outperform other deep learning-based algorithms in both short-term and long-term traffic prediction.

Modeling polyvinyl chloride Plasma Modification by Neural Networks

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Changquan

2018-03-01

Neural networks model were constructed to analyze the connection between dielectric barrier discharge parameters and surface properties of material. The experiment data were generated from polyvinyl chloride plasma modification by using uniform design. Discharge voltage, discharge gas gap and treatment time were as neural network input layer parameters. The measured values of contact angle were as the output layer parameters. A nonlinear mathematical model of the surface modification for polyvinyl chloride was developed based upon the neural networks. The optimum model parameters were obtained by the simulation evaluation and error analysis. The results of the optimal model show that the predicted value is very close to the actual test value. The prediction model obtained here are useful for discharge plasma surface modification analysis.

Predicting the wheel rolling resistance regarding important motion parameters using the artificial neural network

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

F Gheshlaghi

2016-04-01

the analytical and statistical methods. It is expected that the neural network can more accurately predict the rolling resistance. In this study, the neural network for experimental data was trained and the relationship among some parameters of velocity, dynamic load and tire pressure and rolling resistance were evaluated. Materials and Methods: The soil bin and single wheel tester of Biosystem Engineering Mechanics Department of Urmia University was used in this study. This soil bin has 24 m length, 2 m width and 1 m depth including a single-wheel tester and the carrier. Tester consists of four horizontal arms and a vertical arm to vertical load. The S-shaped load cells were employed in horizontal arms with a load capacity of 200 kg and another 500 kg in the vertical arm was embedded. The tire used in this study was a general pneumatic tire (Good year 9.5L-14, 6 ply In this study, artificial neural networks were used for optimizing the rolling resistance by 35 neurons, 6 inputs and 1 output choices. Comparison of neural network models according to the mean square error and correlation coefficient was used. In addition, 60% of the data on training, 20% on test and finally 20% of the credits was allocated to the validation and Output parameter of the neural network model has determined the tire rolling resistance. Finally, this study predicts the effects of changing parameters of tire pressure, vertical load and velocity on rolling resistance using a trained neural network. Results and Discussion: Based on obtained error of Levenberg- Marquardt algorithm, neural network with 35 neurons in the hidden layer with sigmoid tangent function and one neuron in the output layer with linear actuator function were selected. The regression coefficient of tested network is 0.92 which seems acceptable, considering the complexity of the studied process. Some of the input parameters to the network are speed, pressure and vertical load which their relationship with the rolling

Application of neural network to CT

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ma, Xiao-Feng; Takeda, Tatsuoki

1999-01-01

This paper presents a new method for two-dimensional image reconstruction by using a multilayer neural network. Multilayer neural networks are extensively investigated and practically applied to solution of various problems such as inverse problems or time series prediction problems. From learning an input-output mapping from a set of examples, neural networks can be regarded as synthesizing an approximation of multidimensional function (that is, solving the problem of hypersurface reconstruction, including smoothing and interpolation). From this viewpoint, neural networks are well suited to the solution of CT image reconstruction. Though a conventionally used object function of a neural network is composed of a sum of squared errors of the output data, we can define an object function composed of a sum of residue of an integral equation. By employing an appropriate line integral for this integral equation, we can construct a neural network that can be used for CT. We applied this method to some model problems and obtained satisfactory results. As it is not necessary to discretized the integral equation using this reconstruction method, therefore it is application to the problem of complicated geometrical shapes is also feasible. Moreover, in neural networks, interpolation is performed quite smoothly, as a result, inverse mapping can be achieved smoothly even in case of including experimental and numerical errors, However, use of conventional back propagation technique for optimization leads to an expensive computation cost. To overcome this drawback, 2nd order optimization methods or parallel computing will be applied in future. (J.P.N.)

Artificial Neural Networks to Predict the Power Output of a PV Panel

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Valerio Lo Brano

2014-01-01

Full Text Available The paper illustrates an adaptive approach based on different topologies of artificial neural networks (ANNs for the power energy output forecasting of photovoltaic (PV modules. The analysis of the PV module’s power output needed detailed local climate data, which was collected by a dedicated weather monitoring system. The Department of Energy, Information Engineering, and Mathematical Models of the University of Palermo (Italy has built up a weather monitoring system that worked together with a data acquisition system. The power output forecast is obtained using three different types of ANNs: a one hidden layer Multilayer perceptron (MLP, a recursive neural network (RNN, and a gamma memory (GM trained with the back propagation. In order to investigate the influence of climate variability on the electricity production, the ANNs were trained using weather data (air temperature, solar irradiance, and wind speed along with historical power output data available for the two test modules. The model validation was performed by comparing model predictions with power output data that were not used for the network's training. The results obtained bear out the suitability of the adopted methodology for the short-term power output forecasting problem and identified the best topology.

Prediction of Shanghai Index based on Additive Legendre Neural Network

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Yang Bin

2017-01-01

Full Text Available In this paper, a novel Legendre neural network model is proposed, namely additive Legendre neural network (ALNN. A new hybrid evolutionary method besed on binary particle swarm optimization (BPSO algorithm and firefly algorithm is proposed to optimize the structure and parameters of ALNN model. Shanghai stock exchange composite index is used to evaluate the performance of ALNN. Results reveal that ALNN performs better than LNN model.

Bankruptcy prediction for credit risk using neural networks: a survey and new results.

Science.gov (United States)

Atiya, A F

2001-01-01

The prediction of corporate bankruptcies is an important and widely studied topic since it can have significant impact on bank lending decisions and profitability. This work presents two contributions. First we review the topic of bankruptcy prediction, with emphasis on neural-network (NN) models. Second, we develop an NN bankruptcy prediction model. Inspired by one of the traditional credit risk models developed by Merton (1974), we propose novel indicators for the NN system. We show that the use of these indicators in addition to traditional financial ratio indicators provides a significant improvement in the (out-of-sample) prediction accuracy (from 81.46% to 85.5% for a three-year-ahead forecast).

Prediction Study on Anti-Slide Control of Railway Vehicle Based on RBF Neural Networks

Science.gov (United States)

Yang, Lijun; Zhang, Jimin

While railway vehicle braking, Anti-slide control system will detect operating status of each wheel-sets e.g. speed difference and deceleration etc. Once the detected value on some wheel-set is over pre-defined threshold, brake effort on such wheel-set will be adjusted automatically to avoid blocking. Such method takes effect on guarantee safety operation of vehicle and avoid wheel-set flatness, however it cannot adapt itself to the rail adhesion variation. While wheel-sets slide, the operating status is chaotic time series with certain law, and can be predicted with the law and experiment data in certain time. The predicted values can be used as the input reference signals of vehicle anti-slide control system, to judge and control the slide status of wheel-sets. In this article, the RBF neural networks is taken to predict wheel-set slide status in multi-step with weight vector adjusted based on online self-adaptive algorithm, and the center & normalizing parameters of active function of the hidden unit of RBF neural networks' hidden layer computed with K-means clustering algorithm. With multi-step prediction simulation, the predicted signal with appropriate precision can be used by anti-slide system to trace actively and adjust wheel-set slide tendency, so as to adapt to wheel-rail adhesion variation and reduce the risk of wheel-set blocking.

Precision Obtained Using an Artificial Neural Network for Predicting the Material Removal Rate in Ultrasonic Machining

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Gaoyan Zhong

2017-12-01

Full Text Available The present study proposes a back propagation artificial neural network (BPANN to provide improved precision for predicting the material removal rate (MRR in ultrasonic machining. The BPANN benefits from the advantage of artificial neural networks (ANNs in dealing with complex input-output relationships without explicit mathematical functions. In our previous study, a conventional linear regression model and improved nonlinear regression model were established for modelling the MRR in ultrasonic machining to reflect the influence of machining parameters on process response. In the present work, we quantitatively compare the prediction precision obtained by the previously proposed regression models and the presently proposed BPANN model. The results of detailed analyses indicate that the BPANN model provided the highest prediction precision of the three models considered. The present work makes a positive contribution to expanding the applications of ANNs and can be considered as a guide for modelling complex problems of general machining.

Distributed Learning, Recognition, and Prediction by ART and ARTMAP Neural Networks.

Science.gov (United States)

Carpenter, Gail A.

1997-11-01

A class of adaptive resonance theory (ART) models for learning, recognition, and prediction with arbitrarily distributed code representations is introduced. Distributed ART neural networks combine the stable fast learning capabilities of winner-take-all ART systems with the noise tolerance and code compression capabilities of multilayer perceptrons. With a winner-take-all code, the unsupervised model dART reduces to fuzzy ART and the supervised model dARTMAP reduces to fuzzy ARTMAP. With a distributed code, these networks automatically apportion learned changes according to the degree of activation of each coding node, which permits fast as well as slow learning without catastrophic forgetting. Distributed ART models replace the traditional neural network path weight with a dynamic weight equal to the rectified difference between coding node activation and an adaptive threshold. Thresholds increase monotonically during learning according to a principle of atrophy due to disuse. However, monotonic change at the synaptic level manifests itself as bidirectional change at the dynamic level, where the result of adaptation resembles long-term potentiation (LTP) for single-pulse or low frequency test inputs but can resemble long-term depression (LTD) for higher frequency test inputs. This paradoxical behavior is traced to dual computational properties of phasic and tonic coding signal components. A parallel distributed match-reset-search process also helps stabilize memory. Without the match-reset-search system, dART becomes a type of distributed competitive learning network.

Artificial neural networks to predict presence of significant pathology in patients presenting to routine colorectal clinics.

Science.gov (United States)

Maslekar, S; Gardiner, A B; Monson, J R T; Duthie, G S

2010-12-01

Artificial neural networks (ANNs) are computer programs used to identify complex relations within data. Routine predictions of presence of colorectal pathology based on population statistics have little meaning for individual patient. This results in large number of unnecessary lower gastrointestinal endoscopies (LGEs - colonoscopies and flexible sigmoidoscopies). We aimed to develop a neural network algorithm that can accurately predict presence of significant pathology in patients attending routine outpatient clinics for gastrointestinal symptoms. Ethics approval was obtained and the study was monitored according to International Committee on Harmonisation - Good Clinical Practice (ICH-GCP) standards. Three-hundred patients undergoing LGE prospectively completed a specifically developed questionnaire, which included 40 variables based on clinical symptoms, signs, past- and family history. Complete data sets of 100 patients were used to train the ANN; the remaining data was used for internal validation. The primary output used was positive finding on LGE, including polyps, cancer, diverticular disease or colitis. For external validation, the ANN was applied to data from 50 patients in primary care and also compared with the predictions of four clinicians. Clear correlation between actual data value and ANN predictions were found (r = 0.931; P = 0.0001). The predictive accuracy of ANN was 95% in training group and 90% (95% CI 84-96) in the internal validation set and this was significantly higher than the clinical accuracy (75%). ANN also showed high accuracy in the external validation group (89%). Artificial neural networks offer the possibility of personal prediction of outcome for individual patients presenting in clinics with colorectal symptoms, making it possible to make more appropriate requests for lower gastrointestinal endoscopy. © 2010 The Authors. Colorectal Disease © 2010 The Association of Coloproctology of Great Britain and Ireland.

Discriminating lysosomal membrane protein types using dynamic neural network.

Science.gov (United States)

Tripathi, Vijay; Gupta, Dwijendra Kumar

2014-01-01

This work presents a dynamic artificial neural network methodology, which classifies the proteins into their classes from their sequences alone: the lysosomal membrane protein classes and the various other membranes protein classes. In this paper, neural networks-based lysosomal-associated membrane protein type prediction system is proposed. Different protein sequence representations are fused to extract the features of a protein sequence, which includes seven feature sets; amino acid (AA) composition, sequence length, hydrophobic group, electronic group, sum of hydrophobicity, R-group, and dipeptide composition. To reduce the dimensionality of the large feature vector, we applied the principal component analysis. The probabilistic neural network, generalized regression neural network, and Elman regression neural network (RNN) are used as classifiers and compared with layer recurrent network (LRN), a dynamic network. The dynamic networks have memory, i.e. its output depends not only on the input but the previous outputs also. Thus, the accuracy of LRN classifier among all other artificial neural networks comes out to be the highest. The overall accuracy of jackknife cross-validation is 93.2% for the data-set. These predicted results suggest that the method can be effectively applied to discriminate lysosomal associated membrane proteins from other membrane proteins (Type-I, Outer membrane proteins, GPI-Anchored) and Globular proteins, and it also indicates that the protein sequence representation can better reflect the core feature of membrane proteins than the classical AA composition.

Evolutionary Algorithms For Neural Networks Binary And Real Data Classification

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Dr. Hanan A.R. Akkar

2015-08-01

Full Text Available Artificial neural networks are complex networks emulating the way human rational neurons process data. They have been widely used generally in prediction clustering classification and association. The training algorithms that used to determine the network weights are almost the most important factor that influence the neural networks performance. Recently many meta-heuristic and Evolutionary algorithms are employed to optimize neural networks weights to achieve better neural performance. This paper aims to use recently proposed algorithms for optimizing neural networks weights comparing these algorithms performance with other classical meta-heuristic algorithms used for the same purpose. However to evaluate the performance of such algorithms for training neural networks we examine such algorithms to classify four opposite binary XOR clusters and classification of continuous real data sets such as Iris and Ecoli.

Fault diagnosis system of electromagnetic valve using neural network filter