WorldWideScience

Sample records for neural network predictions

  1. Stock market index prediction using neural networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Komo, Darmadi; Chang, Chein-I.; Ko, Hanseok

    1994-03-01

    A neural network approach to stock market index prediction is presented. Actual data of the Wall Street Journal's Dow Jones Industrial Index has been used for a benchmark in our experiments where Radial Basis Function based neural networks have been designed to model these indices over the period from January 1988 to Dec 1992. A notable success has been achieved with the proposed model producing over 90% prediction accuracies observed based on monthly Dow Jones Industrial Index predictions. The model has also captured both moderate and heavy index fluctuations. The experiments conducted in this study demonstrated that the Radial Basis Function neural network represents an excellent candidate to predict stock market index.

  2. Neural Networks for protein Structure Prediction

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bohr, Henrik

    1998-01-01

    This is a review about neural network applications in bioinformatics. Especially the applications to protein structure prediction, e.g. prediction of secondary structures, prediction of surface structure, fold class recognition and prediction of the 3-dimensional structure of protein backbones...

  3. Based on BP Neural Network Stock Prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Xiangwei; Ma, Xin

    2012-01-01

    The stock market has a high profit and high risk features, on the stock market analysis and prediction research has been paid attention to by people. Stock price trend is a complex nonlinear function, so the price has certain predictability. This article mainly with improved BP neural network (BPNN) to set up the stock market prediction model, and…

  4. Artificial neural network intelligent method for prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trifonov, Roumen; Yoshinov, Radoslav; Pavlova, Galya; Tsochev, Georgi

    2017-09-01

    Accounting and financial classification and prediction problems are high challenge and researchers use different methods to solve them. Methods and instruments for short time prediction of financial operations using artificial neural network are considered. The methods, used for prediction of financial data as well as the developed forecasting system with neural network are described in the paper. The architecture of a neural network used four different technical indicators, which are based on the raw data and the current day of the week is presented. The network developed is used for forecasting movement of stock prices one day ahead and consists of an input layer, one hidden layer and an output layer. The training method is algorithm with back propagation of the error. The main advantage of the developed system is self-determination of the optimal topology of neural network, due to which it becomes flexible and more precise The proposed system with neural network is universal and can be applied to various financial instruments using only basic technical indicators as input data.

  5. Neural Network Classifiers for Local Wind Prediction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kretzschmar, Ralf; Eckert, Pierre; Cattani, Daniel; Eggimann, Fritz

    2004-05-01

    This paper evaluates the quality of neural network classifiers for wind speed and wind gust prediction with prediction lead times between +1 and +24 h. The predictions were realized based on local time series and model data. The selection of appropriate input features was initiated by time series analysis and completed by empirical comparison of neural network classifiers trained on several choices of input features. The selected input features involved day time, yearday, features from a single wind observation device at the site of interest, and features derived from model data. The quality of the resulting classifiers was benchmarked against persistence for two different sites in Switzerland. The neural network classifiers exhibited superior quality when compared with persistence judged on a specific performance measure, hit and false-alarm rates.

  6. Neural networks to predict exosphere temperature corrections

    Science.gov (United States)

    Choury, Anna; Bruinsma, Sean; Schaeffer, Philippe

    2013-10-01

    Precise orbit prediction requires a forecast of the atmospheric drag force with a high degree of accuracy. Artificial neural networks are universal approximators derived from artificial intelligence and are widely used for prediction. This paper presents a method of artificial neural networking for prediction of the thermosphere density by forecasting exospheric temperature, which will be used by the semiempirical thermosphere Drag Temperature Model (DTM) currently developed. Artificial neural network has shown to be an effective and robust forecasting model for temperature prediction. The proposed model can be used for any mission from which temperature can be deduced accurately, i.e., it does not require specific training. Although the primary goal of the study was to create a model for 1 day ahead forecast, the proposed architecture has been generalized to 2 and 3 days prediction as well. The impact of artificial neural network predictions has been quantified for the low-orbiting satellite Gravity Field and Steady-State Ocean Circulation Explorer in 2011, and an order of magnitude smaller orbit errors were found when compared with orbits propagated using the thermosphere model DTM2009.

  7. CONSTRUCTION COST PREDICTION USING NEURAL NETWORKS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Smita K Magdum

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available Construction cost prediction is important for construction firms to compete and grow in the industry. Accurate construction cost prediction in the early stage of project is important for project feasibility studies and successful completion. There are many factors that affect the cost prediction. This paper presents construction cost prediction as multiple regression model with cost of six materials as independent variables. The objective of this paper is to develop neural networks and multilayer perceptron based model for construction cost prediction. Different models of NN and MLP are developed with varying hidden layer size and hidden nodes. Four artificial neural network models and twelve multilayer perceptron models are compared. MLP and NN give better results than statistical regression method. As compared to NN, MLP works better on training dataset but fails on testing dataset. Five activation functions are tested to identify suitable function for the problem. ‘elu' transfer function gives better results than other transfer function.

  8. File access prediction using neural networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Patra, Prashanta Kumar; Sahu, Muktikanta; Mohapatra, Subasish; Samantray, Ronak Kumar

    2010-06-01

    One of the most vexing issues in design of a high-speed computer is the wide gap of access times between the memory and the disk. To solve this problem, static file access predictors have been used. In this paper, we propose dynamic file access predictors using neural networks to significantly improve upon the accuracy, success-per-reference, and effective-success-rate-per-reference by using neural-network-based file access predictor with proper tuning. In particular, we verified that the incorrect prediction has been reduced from 53.11% to 43.63% for the proposed neural network prediction method with a standard configuration than the recent popularity (RP) method. With manual tuning for each trace, we are able to improve upon the misprediction rate and effective-success-rate-per-reference using a standard configuration. Simulations on distributed file system (DFS) traces reveal that exact fit radial basis function (RBF) gives better prediction in high end system whereas multilayer perceptron (MLP) trained with Levenberg-Marquardt (LM) backpropagation outperforms in system having good computational capability. Probabilistic and competitive predictors are the most suitable for work stations having limited resources to deal with and the former predictor is more efficient than the latter for servers having maximum system calls. Finally, we conclude that MLP with LM backpropagation algorithm has better success rate of file prediction than those of simple perceptron, last successor, stable successor, and best k out of m predictors.

  9. Prediction based chaos control via a new neural network

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shen Liqun; Wang Mao; Liu Wanyu; Sun Guanghui

    2008-01-01

    In this Letter, a new chaos control scheme based on chaos prediction is proposed. To perform chaos prediction, a new neural network architecture for complex nonlinear approximation is proposed. And the difficulty in building and training the neural network is also reduced. Simulation results of Logistic map and Lorenz system show the effectiveness of the proposed chaos control scheme and the proposed neural network

  10. Artificial Neural Network Model for Predicting Compressive

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Salim T. Yousif

    2013-05-01

    Full Text Available   Compressive strength of concrete is a commonly used criterion in evaluating concrete. Although testing of the compressive strength of concrete specimens is done routinely, it is performed on the 28th day after concrete placement. Therefore, strength estimation of concrete at early time is highly desirable. This study presents the effort in applying neural network-based system identification techniques to predict the compressive strength of concrete based on concrete mix proportions, maximum aggregate size (MAS, and slump of fresh concrete. Back-propagation neural networks model is successively developed, trained, and tested using actual data sets of concrete mix proportions gathered from literature.    The test of the model by un-used data within the range of input parameters shows that the maximum absolute error for model is about 20% and 88% of the output results has absolute errors less than 10%. The parametric study shows that water/cement ratio (w/c is the most significant factor  affecting the output of the model.     The results showed that neural networks has strong potential as a feasible tool for predicting compressive strength of concrete.

  11. Wave transmission prediction of multilayer floating breakwater using neural network

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Mandal, S.; Patil, S.G.; Hegde, A.V.

    In the present study, an artificial neural network method has been applied for wave transmission prediction of multilayer floating breakwater. Two neural network models are constructed based on the parameters which influence the wave transmission...

  12. Stability prediction of berm breakwater using neural network

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Mandal, S.; Rao, S.; Manjunath, Y.R.

    In the present study, an artificial neural network method has been applied to predict the stability of berm breakwaters. Four neural network models are constructed based on the parameters which influence the stability of breakwater. Training...

  13. Time series prediction with simple recurrent neural networks ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    A hybrid of the two called Elman-Jordan (or Multi-recurrent) neural network is also being used. In this study, we evaluated the performance of these neural networks on three established bench mark time series prediction problems. Results from the experiments showed that Jordan neural network performed significantly ...

  14. Optimum Neural Network Architecture for Precipitation Prediction of Myanmar

    OpenAIRE

    Khaing Win Mar; Thinn Thu Naing

    2008-01-01

    Nowadays, precipitation prediction is required for proper planning and management of water resources. Prediction with neural network models has received increasing interest in various research and application domains. However, it is difficult to determine the best neural network architecture for prediction since it is not immediately obvious how many input or hidden nodes are used in the model. In this paper, neural network model is used as a forecasting tool. The major aim is to evaluate a s...

  15. water demand prediction using artificial neural network

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    user

    2017-01-01

    Jan 1, 2017 ... Interface for activation and deactivation of valves. •. Interface demand ... process could be done and monitored at the computer terminal as expected of a .... [15] Arbib, M. A.The Handbook of Brain Theory and Neural. Networks.

  16. Forex Market Prediction Using NARX Neural Network with Bagging

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shahbazi Nima

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available We propose a new methodfor predicting movements in Forex market based on NARX neural network withtime shifting bagging techniqueand financial indicators, such as relative strength index and stochastic indicators. Neural networks have prominent learning ability but they often exhibit bad and unpredictable performance for noisy data. When compared with the static neural networks, our method significantly reducesthe error rate of the responseandimproves the performance of the prediction. We tested three different types ofarchitecture for predicting the response and determined the best network approach. We applied our method to prediction the hourly foreign exchange rates and found remarkable predictability in comprehensive experiments with 2 different foreign exchange rates (GBPUSD and EURUSD.

  17. Network traffic anomaly prediction using Artificial Neural Network

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ciptaningtyas, Hening Titi; Fatichah, Chastine; Sabila, Altea

    2017-03-01

    As the excessive increase of internet usage, the malicious software (malware) has also increase significantly. Malware is software developed by hacker for illegal purpose(s), such as stealing data and identity, causing computer damage, or denying service to other user[1]. Malware which attack computer or server often triggers network traffic anomaly phenomena. Based on Sophos's report[2], Indonesia is the riskiest country of malware attack and it also has high network traffic anomaly. This research uses Artificial Neural Network (ANN) to predict network traffic anomaly based on malware attack in Indonesia which is recorded by Id-SIRTII/CC (Indonesia Security Incident Response Team on Internet Infrastructure/Coordination Center). The case study is the highest malware attack (SQL injection) which has happened in three consecutive years: 2012, 2013, and 2014[4]. The data series is preprocessed first, then the network traffic anomaly is predicted using Artificial Neural Network and using two weight update algorithms: Gradient Descent and Momentum. Error of prediction is calculated using Mean Squared Error (MSE) [7]. The experimental result shows that MSE for SQL Injection is 0.03856. So, this approach can be used to predict network traffic anomaly.

  18. Prediction of tides using back-propagation neural networks

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Mandal, S.

    Prediction of tides is very much essential for human activities and to reduce the construction cost in marine environment. This paper presents an application of the artificial neural network with back-propagation procedures for accurate prediction...

  19. Predicting Expressive Dynamics in Piano Performances using Neural Networks

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Herwaarden, Sam; Grachten, Maarten; de Haas, W. Bas

    2014-01-01

    This paper presents a model for predicting expressive accentuation in piano performances with neural networks. Using Restricted Boltzmann Machines (RBMs), features are learned from performance data, after which these features are used to predict performed loudness. During feature learning, data

  20. Financial time series prediction using spiking neural networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reid, David; Hussain, Abir Jaafar; Tawfik, Hissam

    2014-01-01

    In this paper a novel application of a particular type of spiking neural network, a Polychronous Spiking Network, was used for financial time series prediction. It is argued that the inherent temporal capabilities of this type of network are suited to non-stationary data such as this. The performance of the spiking neural network was benchmarked against three systems: two "traditional", rate-encoded, neural networks; a Multi-Layer Perceptron neural network and a Dynamic Ridge Polynomial neural network, and a standard Linear Predictor Coefficients model. For this comparison three non-stationary and noisy time series were used: IBM stock data; US/Euro exchange rate data, and the price of Brent crude oil. The experiments demonstrated favourable prediction results for the Spiking Neural Network in terms of Annualised Return and prediction error for 5-Step ahead predictions. These results were also supported by other relevant metrics such as Maximum Drawdown and Signal-To-Noise ratio. This work demonstrated the applicability of the Polychronous Spiking Network to financial data forecasting and this in turn indicates the potential of using such networks over traditional systems in difficult to manage non-stationary environments.

  1. Predicting local field potentials with recurrent neural networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Louis; Harer, Jacob; Rangamani, Akshay; Moran, James; Parks, Philip D; Widge, Alik; Eskandar, Emad; Dougherty, Darin; Chin, Sang Peter

    2016-08-01

    We present a Recurrent Neural Network using LSTM (Long Short Term Memory) that is capable of modeling and predicting Local Field Potentials. We train and test the network on real data recorded from epilepsy patients. We construct networks that predict multi-channel LFPs for 1, 10, and 100 milliseconds forward in time. Our results show that prediction using LSTM outperforms regression when predicting 10 and 100 millisecond forward in time.

  2. Using machine learning, neural networks and statistics to predict bankruptcy

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Pompe, P.P.M.; Feelders, A.J.; Feelders, A.J.

    1997-01-01

    Recent literature strongly suggests that machine learning approaches to classification outperform "classical" statistical methods. We make a comparison between the performance of linear discriminant analysis, classification trees, and neural networks in predicting corporate bankruptcy. Linear

  3. Neural Network Predictions of the 4-Quadrant Wageningen Propeller Series

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Roddy, Robert F; Hess, David E; Faller, Will

    2006-01-01

    .... This report describes the development of feedforward neural network (FFNN) predictions of four-quadrant thrust and torque behavior for the Wageningen B-Screw Series of propellers and for two Wageningen ducted propeller series...

  4. Ocean wave prediction using numerical and neural network models

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Mandal, S.; Prabaharan, N.

    This paper presents an overview of the development of the numerical wave prediction models and recently used neural networks for ocean wave hindcasting and forecasting. The numerical wave models express the physical concepts of the phenomena...

  5. Financial Time Series Prediction Using Elman Recurrent Random Neural Networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jie Wang

    2016-01-01

    (ERNN, the empirical results show that the proposed neural network displays the best performance among these neural networks in financial time series forecasting. Further, the empirical research is performed in testing the predictive effects of SSE, TWSE, KOSPI, and Nikkei225 with the established model, and the corresponding statistical comparisons of the above market indices are also exhibited. The experimental results show that this approach gives good performance in predicting the values from the stock market indices.

  6. Prediction of Electricity Usage Using Convolutional Neural Networks

    OpenAIRE

    Hansen, Martin

    2017-01-01

    Master's thesis Information- and communication technology IKT590 - University of Agder 2017 Convolutional Neural Networks are overwhelmingly accurate when attempting to predict numbers using the famous MNIST-dataset. In this paper, we are attempting to transcend these results for time- series forecasting, and compare them with several regression mod- els. The Convolutional Neural Network model predicted the same value through the entire time lapse in contrast with the other ...

  7. Combining neural networks for protein secondary structure prediction

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Riis, Søren Kamaric

    1995-01-01

    In this paper structured neural networks are applied to the problem of predicting the secondary structure of proteins. A hierarchical approach is used where specialized neural networks are designed for each structural class and then combined using another neural network. The submodels are designed...... by using a priori knowledge of the mapping between protein building blocks and the secondary structure and by using weight sharing. Since none of the individual networks have more than 600 adjustable weights over-fitting is avoided. When ensembles of specialized experts are combined the performance...

  8. System Identification, Prediction, Simulation and Control with Neural Networks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sørensen, O.

    1997-01-01

    a Gauss-Newton search direction is applied. 3) Amongst numerous model types, often met in control applications, only the Non-linear ARMAX (NARMAX) model, representing input/output description, is examined. A simulated example confirms that a neural network has the potential to perform excellent System......The intention of this paper is to make a systematic examination of the possibilities of applying neural networks in those technical areas, which are familiar to a control engineer. In other words, the potential of neural networks in control applications is given higher priority than a detailed...... study of the networks themselves. With this end in view the following restrictions have been made: 1) Amongst numerous neural network structures, only the Multi Layer Perceptron (a feed-forward network) is applied. 2) Amongst numerous training algorithms, only the Recursive Prediction Error Method using...

  9. Wind power prediction based on genetic neural network

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Suhan

    2017-04-01

    The scale of grid connected wind farms keeps increasing. To ensure the stability of power system operation, make a reasonable scheduling scheme and improve the competitiveness of wind farm in the electricity generation market, it's important to accurately forecast the short-term wind power. To reduce the influence of the nonlinear relationship between the disturbance factor and the wind power, the improved prediction model based on genetic algorithm and neural network method is established. To overcome the shortcomings of long training time of BP neural network and easy to fall into local minimum and improve the accuracy of the neural network, genetic algorithm is adopted to optimize the parameters and topology of neural network. The historical data is used as input to predict short-term wind power. The effectiveness and feasibility of the method is verified by the actual data of a certain wind farm as an example.

  10. Efficient and Invariant Convolutional Neural Networks for Dense Prediction

    OpenAIRE

    Gao, Hongyang; Ji, Shuiwang

    2017-01-01

    Convolutional neural networks have shown great success on feature extraction from raw input data such as images. Although convolutional neural networks are invariant to translations on the inputs, they are not invariant to other transformations, including rotation and flip. Recent attempts have been made to incorporate more invariance in image recognition applications, but they are not applicable to dense prediction tasks, such as image segmentation. In this paper, we propose a set of methods...

  11. Prediction of littoral drift with artificial neural networks

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Singh, A.K.; Deo, M.C.; SanilKumar, V.

    of the rate of sand drift has still remained as a problem. The current study addresses this issue through the use of artificial neural networks (ANN). Feed forward networks were developed to predict the sand drift from a variety of causative variables...

  12. Neural network for prediction of superheater fireside corrosion

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Makkonen, P. [Foster Wheeler Energia Oy, Karhula R and D Center, Karhula (Finland)

    1998-12-31

    Superheater corrosion causes vast annual losses to the power companies. If the corrosion could be reliably predicted, new power plants could be designed accordingly, and knowledge of fuel selection and determination of process conditions could be utilized to minimize superheater corrosion. If relations between inputs and the output are poorly known, conventional models depending on corrosion theories will fail. A prediction model based on a neural network is capable of learning from errors and improving its performance as the amount of data increases. The neural network developed during this study predicts superheater corrosion with 80 % accuracy at early stage of the project. (orig.) 10 refs.

  13. Neural network for prediction of superheater fireside corrosion

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Makkonen, P [Foster Wheeler Energia Oy, Karhula R and D Center, Karhula (Finland)

    1999-12-31

    Superheater corrosion causes vast annual losses to the power companies. If the corrosion could be reliably predicted, new power plants could be designed accordingly, and knowledge of fuel selection and determination of process conditions could be utilized to minimize superheater corrosion. If relations between inputs and the output are poorly known, conventional models depending on corrosion theories will fail. A prediction model based on a neural network is capable of learning from errors and improving its performance as the amount of data increases. The neural network developed during this study predicts superheater corrosion with 80 % accuracy at early stage of the project. (orig.) 10 refs.

  14. Nonlinear signal processing using neural networks: Prediction and system modelling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lapedes, A.; Farber, R.

    1987-06-01

    The backpropagation learning algorithm for neural networks is developed into a formalism for nonlinear signal processing. We illustrate the method by selecting two common topics in signal processing, prediction and system modelling, and show that nonlinear applications can be handled extremely well by using neural networks. The formalism is a natural, nonlinear extension of the linear Least Mean Squares algorithm commonly used in adaptive signal processing. Simulations are presented that document the additional performance achieved by using nonlinear neural networks. First, we demonstrate that the formalism may be used to predict points in a highly chaotic time series with orders of magnitude increase in accuracy over conventional methods including the Linear Predictive Method and the Gabor-Volterra-Weiner Polynomial Method. Deterministic chaos is thought to be involved in many physical situations including the onset of turbulence in fluids, chemical reactions and plasma physics. Secondly, we demonstrate the use of the formalism in nonlinear system modelling by providing a graphic example in which it is clear that the neural network has accurately modelled the nonlinear transfer function. It is interesting to note that the formalism provides explicit, analytic, global, approximations to the nonlinear maps underlying the various time series. Furthermore, the neural net seems to be extremely parsimonious in its requirements for data points from the time series. We show that the neural net is able to perform well because it globally approximates the relevant maps by performing a kind of generalized mode decomposition of the maps. 24 refs., 13 figs.

  15. Neural networks for predicting breeding values and genetic gains

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gabi Nunes Silva

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available Analysis using Artificial Neural Networks has been described as an approach in the decision-making process that, although incipient, has been reported as presenting high potential for use in animal and plant breeding. In this study, we introduce the procedure of using the expanded data set for training the network. Wealso proposed using statistical parameters to estimate the breeding value of genotypes in simulated scenarios, in addition to the mean phenotypic value in a feed-forward back propagation multilayer perceptron network. After evaluating artificial neural network configurations, our results showed its superiority to estimates based on linear models, as well as its applicability in the genetic value prediction process. The results further indicated the good generalization performance of the neural network model in several additional validation experiments.

  16. Prediction of proteasome cleavage motifs by neural networks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kesimir, C.; Nussbaum, A.K.; Schild, H.

    2002-01-01

    physiological conditions. Our algorithm has been trained not only on in vitro data, but also on MHC Class I ligand data, which reflect a combination of immunoproteasome and constitutive proteasome specificity. This feature, together with the use of neural networks, a non-linear classification technique, make...... the prediction of MHC Class I ligand boundaries more accurate: 65% of the cleavage sites and 85% of the non-cleavage sites are correctly determined. Moreover, we show that the neural networks trained on the constitutive proteasome data learns a specificity that differs from that of the networks trained on MHC...

  17. Implementation of neural network based non-linear predictive

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sørensen, Paul Haase; Nørgård, Peter Magnus; Ravn, Ole

    1998-01-01

    The paper describes a control method for non-linear systems based on generalized predictive control. Generalized predictive control (GPC) was developed to control linear systems including open loop unstable and non-minimum phase systems, but has also been proposed extended for the control of non......-linear systems. GPC is model-based and in this paper we propose the use of a neural network for the modeling of the system. Based on the neural network model a controller with extended control horizon is developed and the implementation issues are discussed, with particular emphasis on an efficient Quasi......-Newton optimization algorithm. The performance is demonstrated on a pneumatic servo system....

  18. Neural Network Predictive Control for Vanadium Redox Flow Battery

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hai-Feng Shen

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available The vanadium redox flow battery (VRB is a nonlinear system with unknown dynamics and disturbances. The flowrate of the electrolyte is an important control mechanism in the operation of a VRB system. Too low or too high flowrate is unfavorable for the safety and performance of VRB. This paper presents a neural network predictive control scheme to enhance the overall performance of the battery. A radial basis function (RBF network is employed to approximate the dynamics of the VRB system. The genetic algorithm (GA is used to obtain the optimum initial values of the RBF network parameters. The gradient descent algorithm is used to optimize the objective function of the predictive controller. Compared with the constant flowrate, the simulation results show that the flowrate optimized by neural network predictive controller can increase the power delivered by the battery during the discharge and decrease the power consumed during the charge.

  19. Using neural networks for prediction of nuclear parameters

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pereira Filho, Leonidas; Souto, Kelling Cabral, E-mail: leonidasmilenium@hotmail.com, E-mail: kcsouto@bol.com.br [Instituto Federal de Educacao, Ciencia e Tecnologia do Rio de Janeiro (IFRJ), Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil); Machado, Marcelo Dornellas, E-mail: dornemd@eletronuclear.gov.br [Eletrobras Termonuclear S.A. (GCN.T/ELETRONUCLEAR), Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil). Gerencia de Combustivel Nuclear

    2013-07-01

    Dating from 1943, the earliest work on artificial neural networks (ANN), when Warren Mc Cullock and Walter Pitts developed a study on the behavior of the biological neuron, with the goal of creating a mathematical model. Some other work was done until after the 80 witnessed an explosion of interest in ANNs, mainly due to advances in technology, especially microelectronics. Because ANNs are able to solve many problems such as approximation, classification, categorization, prediction and others, they have numerous applications in various areas, including nuclear. Nodal method is adopted as a tool for analyzing core parameters such as boron concentration and pin power peaks for pressurized water reactors. However, this method is extremely slow when it is necessary to perform various core evaluations, for example core reloading optimization. To overcome this difficulty, in this paper a model of Multi-layer Perceptron (MLP) artificial neural network type backpropagation will be trained to predict these values. The main objective of this work is the development of Multi-layer Perceptron (MLP) artificial neural network capable to predict, in very short time, with good accuracy, two important parameters used in the core reloading problem - Boron Concentration and Power Peaking Factor. For the training of the neural networks are provided loading patterns and nuclear data used in cycle 19 of Angra 1 nuclear power plant. Three models of networks are constructed using the same input data and providing the following outputs: 1- Boron Concentration and Power Peaking Factor, 2 - Boron Concentration and 3 - Power Peaking Factor. (author)

  20. Using neural networks for prediction of nuclear parameters

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pereira Filho, Leonidas; Souto, Kelling Cabral; Machado, Marcelo Dornellas

    2013-01-01

    Dating from 1943, the earliest work on artificial neural networks (ANN), when Warren Mc Cullock and Walter Pitts developed a study on the behavior of the biological neuron, with the goal of creating a mathematical model. Some other work was done until after the 80 witnessed an explosion of interest in ANNs, mainly due to advances in technology, especially microelectronics. Because ANNs are able to solve many problems such as approximation, classification, categorization, prediction and others, they have numerous applications in various areas, including nuclear. Nodal method is adopted as a tool for analyzing core parameters such as boron concentration and pin power peaks for pressurized water reactors. However, this method is extremely slow when it is necessary to perform various core evaluations, for example core reloading optimization. To overcome this difficulty, in this paper a model of Multi-layer Perceptron (MLP) artificial neural network type backpropagation will be trained to predict these values. The main objective of this work is the development of Multi-layer Perceptron (MLP) artificial neural network capable to predict, in very short time, with good accuracy, two important parameters used in the core reloading problem - Boron Concentration and Power Peaking Factor. For the training of the neural networks are provided loading patterns and nuclear data used in cycle 19 of Angra 1 nuclear power plant. Three models of networks are constructed using the same input data and providing the following outputs: 1- Boron Concentration and Power Peaking Factor, 2 - Boron Concentration and 3 - Power Peaking Factor. (author)

  1. Artificial neural networks for prediction of percentage of water ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    have high compressive strengths in comparison with con- crete specimens ... presenting suitable model based on artificial neural networks. (ANNs) to ... by experimental ones to evaluate the software power for pre- dicting the ..... Figure 7. Correlation of measured and predicted percentage of water absorption values of.

  2. Predicting physical time series using dynamic ridge polynomial neural networks.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dhiya Al-Jumeily

    Full Text Available Forecasting naturally occurring phenomena is a common problem in many domains of science, and this has been addressed and investigated by many scientists. The importance of time series prediction stems from the fact that it has wide range of applications, including control systems, engineering processes, environmental systems and economics. From the knowledge of some aspects of the previous behaviour of the system, the aim of the prediction process is to determine or predict its future behaviour. In this paper, we consider a novel application of a higher order polynomial neural network architecture called Dynamic Ridge Polynomial Neural Network that combines the properties of higher order and recurrent neural networks for the prediction of physical time series. In this study, four types of signals have been used, which are; The Lorenz attractor, mean value of the AE index, sunspot number, and heat wave temperature. The simulation results showed good improvements in terms of the signal to noise ratio in comparison to a number of higher order and feedforward neural networks in comparison to the benchmarked techniques.

  3. Patterning and predicting aquatic macroinvertebrate diversities using artificial neural network

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Park, Y.S.; Verdonschot, P.F.M.; Chon, T.S.; Lek, S.

    2003-01-01

    A counterpropagation neural network (CPN) was applied to predict species richness (SR) and Shannon diversity index (SH) of benthic macroinvertebrate communities using 34 environmental variables. The data were collected at 664 sites at 23 different water types such as springs, streams, rivers,

  4. Wind Power Plant Prediction by Using Neural Networks: Preprint

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Liu, Z.; Gao, W.; Wan, Y. H.; Muljadi, E.

    2012-08-01

    This paper introduces a method of short-term wind power prediction for a wind power plant by training neural networks based on historical data of wind speed and wind direction. The model proposed is shown to achieve a high accuracy with respect to the measured data.

  5. Artificial neural networks for prediction of percentage of water

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    ... Lecture Workshops · Refresher Courses · Symposia · Live Streaming. Home; Journals; Bulletin of Materials Science; Volume 35; Issue 6. Artificial neural networks for prediction of percentage of water absorption of geopolymers produced by waste ashes. Ali Nazari. Volume 35 Issue 6 November 2012 pp 1019-1029 ...

  6. Optimal neural networks for protein-structure prediction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Head-Gordon, T.; Stillinger, F.H.

    1993-01-01

    The successful application of neural-network algorithms for prediction of protein structure is stymied by three problem areas: the sparsity of the database of known protein structures, poorly devised network architectures which make the input-output mapping opaque, and a global optimization problem in the multiple-minima space of the network variables. We present a simplified polypeptide model residing in two dimensions with only two amino-acid types, A and B, which allows the determination of the global energy structure for all possible sequences of pentamer, hexamer, and heptamer lengths. This model simplicity allows us to compile a complete structural database and to devise neural networks that reproduce the tertiary structure of all sequences with absolute accuracy and with the smallest number of network variables. These optimal networks reveal that the three problem areas are convoluted, but that thoughtful network designs can actually deconvolute these detrimental traits to provide network algorithms that genuinely impact on the ability of the network to generalize or learn the desired mappings. Furthermore, the two-dimensional polypeptide model shows sufficient chemical complexity so that transfer of neural-network technology to more realistic three-dimensional proteins is evident

  7. Using Neural Networks to Predict the Hardness of Aluminum Alloys

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B. Zahran

    2015-02-01

    Full Text Available Aluminum alloys have gained significant industrial importance being involved in many of the light and heavy industries and especially in aerospace engineering. The mechanical properties of aluminum alloys are defined by a number of principal microstructural features. Conventional mathematical models of these properties are sometimes very complex to be analytically calculated. In this paper, a neural network model is used to predict the correlations between the hardness of aluminum alloys in relation to certain alloying elements. A backpropagation neural network is trained using a thorough dataset. The impact of certain elements is documented and an optimum structure is proposed.

  8. Prediction of Parametric Roll Resonance by Multilayer Perceptron Neural Network

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Míguez González, M; López Peña, F.; Díaz Casás, V.

    2011-01-01

    Parametric roll resonance is a ship stability related phenomenon that generates sudden large amplitude oscillations up to 30-40 degrees of roll. This can cause severe damage, and it can put the crew in serious danger. The need for a parametric rolling real time prediction system has been acknowle......Parametric roll resonance is a ship stability related phenomenon that generates sudden large amplitude oscillations up to 30-40 degrees of roll. This can cause severe damage, and it can put the crew in serious danger. The need for a parametric rolling real time prediction system has been...... acknowledged in the last few years. This work proposes a prediction system based on a multilayer perceptron (MP) neural network. The training and testing of the MP network is accomplished by feeding it with simulated data of a three degrees-of-freedom nonlinear model of a fishing vessel. The neural network...

  9. PREDICTING CUSTOMER CHURN IN BANKING INDUSTRY USING NEURAL NETWORKS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alisa Bilal Zorić

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this article is to present a case study of usage of one of the data mining methods, neural network, in knowledge discovery from databases in the banking industry. Data mining is automated process of analysing, organization or grouping a large set of data from different perspectives and summarizing it into useful information using special algorithms. Data mining can help to resolve banking problems by finding some regularity, causality and correlation to business information which are not visible at first sight because they are hidden in large amounts of data. In this paper, we used one of the data mining methods, neural network, within the software package Alyuda NeuroInteligence to predict customer churn in bank. The focus on customer churn is to determinate the customers who are at risk of leaving and analysing whether those customers are worth retaining. Neural network is statistical learning model inspired by biological neural and it is used to estimate or approximate functions that can depend on a large number of inputs which are generally unknown. Although the method itself is complicated, there are tools that enable the use of neural networks without much prior knowledge of how they operate. The results show that clients who use more bank services (products are more loyal, so bank should focus on those clients who use less than three products, and offer them products according to their needs. Similar results are obtained for different network topologies.

  10. Evolutionary neural network modeling for software cumulative failure time prediction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tian Liang; Noore, Afzel

    2005-01-01

    An evolutionary neural network modeling approach for software cumulative failure time prediction based on multiple-delayed-input single-output architecture is proposed. Genetic algorithm is used to globally optimize the number of the delayed input neurons and the number of neurons in the hidden layer of the neural network architecture. Modification of Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm with Bayesian regularization is used to improve the ability to predict software cumulative failure time. The performance of our proposed approach has been compared using real-time control and flight dynamic application data sets. Numerical results show that both the goodness-of-fit and the next-step-predictability of our proposed approach have greater accuracy in predicting software cumulative failure time compared to existing approaches

  11. Prediction of metal corrosion using feed-forward neural networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mahjani, M.G.; Jalili, S.; Jafarian, M.; Jaberi, A.

    2004-01-01

    The reliable prediction of corrosion behavior for the effective control of corrosion is a fundamental requirement. Since real world corrosion never seems to involve quite the same conditions that have previously been tested, using corrosion literature does not provide the necessary answers. In order to provide a methodology for predicting corrosion in real and complex situations, artificial neural networks can be utilized. Feed-forward artificial neural network (FFANN) is an information-processing paradigm inspired by the way the densely interconnected, parallel structure of the human brain process information.The aim of the present work is to predict corrosion behavior in critical conditions, such as industrial applications, based on some laboratory experimental data. Electrochemical behavior of stainless steel in different conditions were studied, using polarization technique and Tafel curves. Back-propagation neural networks models were developed to predict the corrosion behavior. The trained networks result in predicted value in good comparison to the experimental data. They have generally been claimed to be successful in modeling the corrosion behavior. The results are presented in two tables. Table 1 gives corrosion behavior of stainless-steel as a function of pH and CuSO 4 concentration and table 2 gives corrosion behavior of stainless - steel as a function of electrode surface area and CuSO 4 concentration. (authors)

  12. Two stage neural network modelling for robust model predictive control.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Patan, Krzysztof

    2018-01-01

    The paper proposes a novel robust model predictive control scheme realized by means of artificial neural networks. The neural networks are used twofold: to design the so-called fundamental model of a plant and to catch uncertainty associated with the plant model. In order to simplify the optimization process carried out within the framework of predictive control an instantaneous linearization is applied which renders it possible to define the optimization problem in the form of constrained quadratic programming. Stability of the proposed control system is also investigated by showing that a cost function is monotonically decreasing with respect to time. Derived robust model predictive control is tested and validated on the example of a pneumatic servomechanism working at different operating regimes. Copyright © 2017 ISA. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  13. Synapse:neural network for predict power consumption: users guide

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Muller, C; Mangeas, M; Perrot, N

    1994-08-01

    SYNAPSE is forecasting tool designed to predict power consumption in metropolitan France on the half hour time scale. Some characteristics distinguish this forecasting model from those which already exist. In particular, it is composed of numerous neural networks. The idea for using many neural networks arises from past tests. These tests showed us that a single neural network is not able to solve the problem correctly. From this result, we decided to perform unsupervised classification of the 24 consumption curves. From this classification, six classes appeared, linked with the weekdays: Mondays, Tuesdays, Wednesdays, Thursdays, Fridays, Saturdays, Sundays, holidays and bridge days. For each class and for each half hour, two multilayer perceptrons are built. The two of them forecast the power for one particular half hour, and for a day including one of the determined class. The input of these two network are different: the first one (short time forecasting) includes the powers for the most recent half hour and relative power of the previous day; the second (medium time forecasting) includes only the relative power of the previous day. A process connects the results of every networks and allows one to forecast more than one half-hour in advance. In this process, short time forecasting networks and medium time forecasting networks are used differently. The first kind of neural networks gives good results on the scale of one day. The second one gives good forecasts for the next predicted powers. In this note, the organization of the SYNAPSE program is detailed, and the user`s menu is described. This first version of synapse works and should allow the APC group to evaluate its utility. (authors). 6 refs., 2 appends.

  14. Parallel protein secondary structure prediction based on neural networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhong, Wei; Altun, Gulsah; Tian, Xinmin; Harrison, Robert; Tai, Phang C; Pan, Yi

    2004-01-01

    Protein secondary structure prediction has a fundamental influence on today's bioinformatics research. In this work, binary and tertiary classifiers of protein secondary structure prediction are implemented on Denoeux belief neural network (DBNN) architecture. Hydrophobicity matrix, orthogonal matrix, BLOSUM62 and PSSM (position specific scoring matrix) are experimented separately as the encoding schemes for DBNN. The experimental results contribute to the design of new encoding schemes. New binary classifier for Helix versus not Helix ( approximately H) for DBNN produces prediction accuracy of 87% when PSSM is used for the input profile. The performance of DBNN binary classifier is comparable to other best prediction methods. The good test results for binary classifiers open a new approach for protein structure prediction with neural networks. Due to the time consuming task of training the neural networks, Pthread and OpenMP are employed to parallelize DBNN in the hyperthreading enabled Intel architecture. Speedup for 16 Pthreads is 4.9 and speedup for 16 OpenMP threads is 4 in the 4 processors shared memory architecture. Both speedup performance of OpenMP and Pthread is superior to that of other research. With the new parallel training algorithm, thousands of amino acids can be processed in reasonable amount of time. Our research also shows that hyperthreading technology for Intel architecture is efficient for parallel biological algorithms.

  15. Predicting company growth using logistic regression and neural networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marijana Zekić-Sušac

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available The paper aims to establish an efficient model for predicting company growth by leveraging the strengths of logistic regression and neural networks. A real dataset of Croatian companies was used which described the relevant industry sector, financial ratios, income, and assets in the input space, with a dependent binomial variable indicating whether a company had high-growth if it had annualized growth in assets by more than 20% a year over a three-year period. Due to a large number of input variables, factor analysis was performed in the pre -processing stage in order to extract the most important input components. Building an efficient model with a high classification rate and explanatory ability required application of two data mining methods: logistic regression as a parametric and neural networks as a non -parametric method. The methods were tested on the models with and without variable reduction. The classification accuracy of the models was compared using statistical tests and ROC curves. The results showed that neural networks produce a significantly higher classification accuracy in the model when incorporating all available variables. The paper further discusses the advantages and disadvantages of both approaches, i.e. logistic regression and neural networks in modelling company growth. The suggested model is potentially of benefit to investors and economic policy makers as it provides support for recognizing companies with growth potential, especially during times of economic downturn.

  16. A neural network to predict symptomatic lung injury

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Munley, M.T.; Lo, J.Y.

    1999-01-01

    A nonlinear neural network that simultaneously uses pre-radiotherapy (RT) biological and physical data was developed to predict symptomatic lung injury. The input data were pre-RT pulmonary function, three-dimensional treatment plan doses and demographics. The output was a single value between 0 (asymptomatic) and 1 (symptomatic) to predict the likelihood that a particular patient would become symptomatic. The network was trained on data from 97 patients for 400 iterations with the goal to minimize the mean-squared error. Statistical analysis was performed on the resulting network to determine the model's accuracy. Results from the neural network were compared with those given by traditional linear discriminate analysis and the dose-volume histogram reduction (DVHR) scheme of Kutcher. Receiver-operator characteristic (ROC) analysis was performed on the resulting network which had Az=0.833±0.04. (Az is the area under the ROC curve.) Linear discriminate multivariate analysis yielded an Az=0.813±0.06. The DVHR method had Az=0.521±0.08. The network was also used to rank the significance of the input variables. Future studies will be conducted to improve network accuracy and to include functional imaging data. (author)

  17. Hand Posture Prediction Using Neural Networks within a Biomechanical Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marta C. Mora

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available This paper proposes the use of artificial neural networks (ANNs in the framework of a biomechanical hand model for grasping. ANNs enhance the model capabilities as they substitute estimated data for the experimental inputs required by the grasping algorithm used. These inputs are the tentative grasping posture and the most open posture during grasping. As a consequence, more realistic grasping postures are predicted by the grasping algorithm, along with the contact information required by the dynamic biomechanical model (contact points and normals. Several neural network architectures are tested and compared in terms of prediction errors, leading to encouraging results. The performance of the overall proposal is also shown through simulation, where a grasping experiment is replicated and compared to the real grasping data collected by a data glove device.

  18. Implementation of neural network based non-linear predictive control

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sørensen, Paul Haase; Nørgård, Peter Magnus; Ravn, Ole

    1999-01-01

    This paper describes a control method for non-linear systems based on generalized predictive control. Generalized predictive control (GPC) was developed to control linear systems, including open-loop unstable and non-minimum phase systems, but has also been proposed to be extended for the control...... of non-linear systems. GPC is model based and in this paper we propose the use of a neural network for the modeling of the system. Based on the neural network model, a controller with extended control horizon is developed and the implementation issues are discussed, with particular emphasis...... on an efficient quasi-Newton algorithm. The performance is demonstrated on a pneumatic servo system....

  19. Prediction of SO{sub 2} levels using neural networks

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Belen M. Fernandez de Castro; Jose Manuel Prada Sanchez; Wenceslao Gonzalez Manteiga [and others] [University of Santiago de Compostela, Santiago (Spain). Department of Statistics and Operations Research, Faculty of Mathematics

    2003-05-01

    The paper presents an adaptation of the air pollution control help system in the neighbourhood of a coal-fired power plant in As Pontes (A Coruna, Spain), property of Endesa Generacion S.A., to the European Council Directive 1999/30/CE. This system contains a statistical prediction made half an hour before the measurement, and it helps the staff in the power plant prevent air quality level episodes. The prediction is made using neural network models. This prediction is compared with one made by a semiparametric model. 11 refs., 6 figs., 4 tabs.

  20. A Neural Network Model for Prediction of Sound Quality

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen,, Lars Bramsløw

    An artificial neural network structure has been specified, implemented and optimized for the purpose of predicting the perceived sound quality for normal-hearing and hearing-impaired subjects. The network was implemented by means of commercially available software and optimized to predict results...... obtained in subjective sound quality rating experiments based on input data from an auditory model. Various types of input data and data representations from the auditory model were used as input data for the chosen network structure, which was a three-layer perceptron. This network was trained by means...... the physical signal parameters and the subjectively perceived sound quality. No simple objective-subjective relationship was evident from this analysis....

  1. Risk prediction model: Statistical and artificial neural network approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paiman, Nuur Azreen; Hariri, Azian; Masood, Ibrahim

    2017-04-01

    Prediction models are increasingly gaining popularity and had been used in numerous areas of studies to complement and fulfilled clinical reasoning and decision making nowadays. The adoption of such models assist physician's decision making, individual's behavior, and consequently improve individual outcomes and the cost-effectiveness of care. The objective of this paper is to reviewed articles related to risk prediction model in order to understand the suitable approach, development and the validation process of risk prediction model. A qualitative review of the aims, methods and significant main outcomes of the nineteen published articles that developed risk prediction models from numerous fields were done. This paper also reviewed on how researchers develop and validate the risk prediction models based on statistical and artificial neural network approach. From the review done, some methodological recommendation in developing and validating the prediction model were highlighted. According to studies that had been done, artificial neural network approached in developing the prediction model were more accurate compared to statistical approach. However currently, only limited published literature discussed on which approach is more accurate for risk prediction model development.

  2. CNNcon: improved protein contact maps prediction using cascaded neural networks.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wang Ding

    Full Text Available BACKGROUNDS: Despite continuing progress in X-ray crystallography and high-field NMR spectroscopy for determination of three-dimensional protein structures, the number of unsolved and newly discovered sequences grows much faster than that of determined structures. Protein modeling methods can possibly bridge this huge sequence-structure gap with the development of computational science. A grand challenging problem is to predict three-dimensional protein structure from its primary structure (residues sequence alone. However, predicting residue contact maps is a crucial and promising intermediate step towards final three-dimensional structure prediction. Better predictions of local and non-local contacts between residues can transform protein sequence alignment to structure alignment, which can finally improve template based three-dimensional protein structure predictors greatly. METHODS: CNNcon, an improved multiple neural networks based contact map predictor using six sub-networks and one final cascade-network, was developed in this paper. Both the sub-networks and the final cascade-network were trained and tested with their corresponding data sets. While for testing, the target protein was first coded and then input to its corresponding sub-networks for prediction. After that, the intermediate results were input to the cascade-network to finish the final prediction. RESULTS: The CNNcon can accurately predict 58.86% in average of contacts at a distance cutoff of 8 Å for proteins with lengths ranging from 51 to 450. The comparison results show that the present method performs better than the compared state-of-the-art predictors. Particularly, the prediction accuracy keeps steady with the increase of protein sequence length. It indicates that the CNNcon overcomes the thin density problem, with which other current predictors have trouble. This advantage makes the method valuable to the prediction of long length proteins. As a result, the effective

  3. Artificial neural networks application for solid fuel slagging intensity predictions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kakietek Sławomir

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Slagging issues present in pulverized steam boilers very often lead to heat transfer problems, corrosion and not planned outages of boilers which increase the cost of energy production and decrease the efficiency of energy production. Slagging especially occurs in regions with reductive atmospheres which nowadays are very common due to very strict limitations in NOx emissions. Moreover alternative fuels like biomass which are also used in combustion systems from two decades in order to decrease CO2 emissions also usually increase the risk of slagging. Thus the prediction of slagging properties of fuels is not the minor issue which can be neglected before purchasing or mixing of fuels. This however is rather difficult to estimate and even commonly known standard laboratory methods like fusion temperature determination or special indexers calculated on the basis of proximate and ultimate analyses, very often have no reasonable correlation to real boiler fuel behaviour. In this paper the method of determination of slagging properties of solid fuels based on laboratory investigation and artificial neural networks were presented. A fuel data base with over 40 fuels was created. Neural networks simulations were carried out in order to predict the beginning temperature and intensity of slagging. Reasonable results were obtained for some of tested neural networks, especially for hybrid feedforward networks with PCA technique. Consequently neural network model will be used in Common Intelligent Boiler Operation Platform (CIBOP being elaborated within CERUBIS research project for two BP-1150 and BB-1150 steam boilers. The model among others enables proper fuel selection in order to minimize slagging risk.

  4. AIR POLLUITON INDEX PREDICTION USING MULTIPLE NEURAL NETWORKS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zainal Ahmad

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available Air quality monitoring and forecasting tools are necessary for the purpose of taking precautionary measures against air pollution, such as reducing the effect of a predicted air pollution peak on the surrounding population and ecosystem. In this study a single Feed-forward Artificial Neural Network (FANN is shown to be able to predict the Air Pollution Index (API with a Mean Squared Error (MSE and coefficient determination, R2, of 0.1856 and 0.7950 respectively. However, due to the non-robust nature of single FANN, a selective combination of Multiple Neural Networks (MNN is introduced using backward elimination and a forward selection method. The results show that both selective combination methods can improve the robustness and performance of the API prediction with the MSE and R2 of 0.1614 and 0.8210 respectively. This clearly shows that it is possible to reduce the number of networks combined in MNN for API prediction, without losses of any information in terms of the performance of the final API prediction model.

  5. Illusory Motion Reproduced by Deep Neural Networks Trained for Prediction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Watanabe, Eiji; Kitaoka, Akiyoshi; Sakamoto, Kiwako; Yasugi, Masaki; Tanaka, Kenta

    2018-01-01

    The cerebral cortex predicts visual motion to adapt human behavior to surrounding objects moving in real time. Although the underlying mechanisms are still unknown, predictive coding is one of the leading theories. Predictive coding assumes that the brain's internal models (which are acquired through learning) predict the visual world at all times and that errors between the prediction and the actual sensory input further refine the internal models. In the past year, deep neural networks based on predictive coding were reported for a video prediction machine called PredNet. If the theory substantially reproduces the visual information processing of the cerebral cortex, then PredNet can be expected to represent the human visual perception of motion. In this study, PredNet was trained with natural scene videos of the self-motion of the viewer, and the motion prediction ability of the obtained computer model was verified using unlearned videos. We found that the computer model accurately predicted the magnitude and direction of motion of a rotating propeller in unlearned videos. Surprisingly, it also represented the rotational motion for illusion images that were not moving physically, much like human visual perception. While the trained network accurately reproduced the direction of illusory rotation, it did not detect motion components in negative control pictures wherein people do not perceive illusory motion. This research supports the exciting idea that the mechanism assumed by the predictive coding theory is one of basis of motion illusion generation. Using sensory illusions as indicators of human perception, deep neural networks are expected to contribute significantly to the development of brain research.

  6. Illusory Motion Reproduced by Deep Neural Networks Trained for Prediction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eiji Watanabe

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available The cerebral cortex predicts visual motion to adapt human behavior to surrounding objects moving in real time. Although the underlying mechanisms are still unknown, predictive coding is one of the leading theories. Predictive coding assumes that the brain's internal models (which are acquired through learning predict the visual world at all times and that errors between the prediction and the actual sensory input further refine the internal models. In the past year, deep neural networks based on predictive coding were reported for a video prediction machine called PredNet. If the theory substantially reproduces the visual information processing of the cerebral cortex, then PredNet can be expected to represent the human visual perception of motion. In this study, PredNet was trained with natural scene videos of the self-motion of the viewer, and the motion prediction ability of the obtained computer model was verified using unlearned videos. We found that the computer model accurately predicted the magnitude and direction of motion of a rotating propeller in unlearned videos. Surprisingly, it also represented the rotational motion for illusion images that were not moving physically, much like human visual perception. While the trained network accurately reproduced the direction of illusory rotation, it did not detect motion components in negative control pictures wherein people do not perceive illusory motion. This research supports the exciting idea that the mechanism assumed by the predictive coding theory is one of basis of motion illusion generation. Using sensory illusions as indicators of human perception, deep neural networks are expected to contribute significantly to the development of brain research.

  7. Predicting Developmental Disorder in Infants Using an Artificial Neural Network

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Farin Soleimani

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available Early recognition of developmental disorders is an important goal, and equally important is avoiding misdiagnosing a disorder in a healthy child without pathology. The aim of the present study was to develop an artificial neural network using perinatal information to predict developmental disorder at infancy. A total of 1,232 mother–child dyads were recruited from 6,150 in the original data of Karaj, Alborz Province, Iran. Thousands of variables are examined in this data including basic characteristics, medical history, and variables related to infants. The validated Infant Neurological International Battery test was employed to assess the infant’s development. The concordance indexes showed that true prediction of developmental disorder in the artificial neural network model, compared to the logistic regression model, was 83.1% vs. 79.5% and the area under ROC curves, calculated from testing data, were 0.79 and 0.68, respectively. In addition, specificity and sensitivity of the ANN model vs. LR model was calculated 93.2% vs. 92.7% and 39.1% vs. 21.7%. An artificial neural network performed significantly better than a logistic regression model.

  8. Adaptive model predictive process control using neural networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buescher, K.L.; Baum, C.C.; Jones, R.D.

    1997-08-19

    A control system for controlling the output of at least one plant process output parameter is implemented by adaptive model predictive control using a neural network. An improved method and apparatus provides for sampling plant output and control input at a first sampling rate to provide control inputs at the fast rate. The MPC system is, however, provided with a network state vector that is constructed at a second, slower rate so that the input control values used by the MPC system are averaged over a gapped time period. Another improvement is a provision for on-line training that may include difference training, curvature training, and basis center adjustment to maintain the weights and basis centers of the neural in an updated state that can follow changes in the plant operation apart from initial off-line training data. 46 figs.

  9. ATHENS SEASONAL VARIATION OF GROUND RESISTANCE PREDICTION USING NEURAL NETWORKS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Anbazhagan

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available The objective in ground resistance is to attain the most minimal ground safety esteem conceivable that bodes well monetarily and physically. An application of artificial neural networks (ANN to presage and relegation has been growing rapidly due to sundry unique characteristics of ANN models. A decent forecast is able to capture the dubiousness associated with those ground resistance. A portion of the key instabilities are soil composition, moisture content, temperature, ground electrodes and spacing of the electrodes. Propelled by this need, this paper endeavors to develop a generalized regression neural network (GRNN to predict the ground resistance. The GRNN has a single design parameter and expeditious learning and efficacious modeling for nonlinear time series. The precision of the forecast is applied to the Athens seasonal variation of ground resistance that shows the efficacy of the proposed approach.

  10. Time series prediction by feedforward neural networks - is it difficult?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rosen-Zvi, Michal; Kanter, Ido; Kinzel, Wolfgang

    2003-01-01

    The difficulties that a neural network faces when trying to learn from a quasi-periodic time series are studied analytically using a teacher-student scenario where the random input is divided into two macroscopic regions with different variances, 1 and 1/γ 2 (γ >> 1). The generalization error is found to decrease as ε g ∝ exp(-α/γ 2 ), where α is the number of examples per input dimension. In contradiction to this very slow vanishing generalization error, the next output prediction is found to be almost free of mistakes. This picture is consistent with learning quasi-periodic time series produced by feedforward neural networks, which is dominated by enhanced components of the Fourier spectrum of the input. Simulation results are in good agreement with the analytical results

  11. Incidents Prediction in Road Junctions Using Artificial Neural Networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hajji, Tarik; Alami Hassani, Aicha; Ouazzani Jamil, Mohammed

    2018-05-01

    The implementation of an incident detection system (IDS) is an indispensable operation in the analysis of the road traffics. However the IDS may, in no case, represent an alternative to the classical monitoring system controlled by the human eye. The aim of this work is to increase detection and prediction probability of incidents in camera-monitored areas. Knowing that, these areas are monitored by multiple cameras and few supervisors. Our solution is to use Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) to analyze moving objects trajectories on captured images. We first propose a modelling of the trajectories and their characteristics, after we develop a learning database for valid and invalid trajectories, and then we carry out a comparative study to find the artificial neural network architecture that maximizes the rate of valid and invalid trajectories recognition.

  12. Application of neural networks for the prediction of multidirectional magnetostriction

    CERN Document Server

    Baumgartinger, N; Pfützner, H; Krismanic, G

    2000-01-01

    This paper describes attempts to use artificial neural networks (ANNs) for the prediction of magnetostriction (MS) characteristics of transformer core materials. In this first approach, the ANNs were trained with data from a rotational single-sheet tester to predict MS in rolling direction (r.d.) as a function of material grade, amplitude and shape of multidirectional magnetisation as well as the level of additional mechanical stress. It is shown that ANNs are able to forecast the corresponding relative MS changes in an approximate way.

  13. Artificial neural network based particle size prediction of polymeric nanoparticles.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Youshia, John; Ali, Mohamed Ehab; Lamprecht, Alf

    2017-10-01

    Particle size of nanoparticles and the respective polydispersity are key factors influencing their biopharmaceutical behavior in a large variety of therapeutic applications. Predicting these attributes would skip many preliminary studies usually required to optimize formulations. The aim was to build a mathematical model capable of predicting the particle size of polymeric nanoparticles produced by a pharmaceutical polymer of choice. Polymer properties controlling the particle size were identified as molecular weight, hydrophobicity and surface activity, and were quantified by measuring polymer viscosity, contact angle and interfacial tension, respectively. A model was built using artificial neural network including these properties as input with particle size and polydispersity index as output. The established model successfully predicted particle size of nanoparticles covering a range of 70-400nm prepared from other polymers. The percentage bias for particle prediction was 2%, 4% and 6%, for the training, validation and testing data, respectively. Polymer surface activity was found to have the highest impact on the particle size followed by viscosity and finally hydrophobicity. Results of this study successfully highlighted polymer properties affecting particle size and confirmed the usefulness of artificial neural networks in predicting the particle size and polydispersity of polymeric nanoparticles. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  14. The Dissolved Oxygen Prediction Method Based on Neural Network

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhong Xiao

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The dissolved oxygen (DO is oxygen dissolved in water, which is an important factor for the aquaculture. Using BP neural network method with the combination of purelin, logsig, and tansig activation functions is proposed for the prediction of aquaculture’s dissolved oxygen. The input layer, hidden layer, and output layer are introduced in detail including the weight adjustment process. The breeding data of three ponds in actual 10 consecutive days were used for experiments; these ponds were located in Beihai, Guangxi, a traditional aquaculture base in southern China. The data of the first 7 days are used for training, and the data of the latter 3 days are used for the test. Compared with the common prediction models, curve fitting (CF, autoregression (AR, grey model (GM, and support vector machines (SVM, the experimental results show that the prediction accuracy of the neural network is the highest, and all the predicted values are less than 5% of the error limit, which can meet the needs of practical applications, followed by AR, GM, SVM, and CF. The prediction model can help to improve the water quality monitoring level of aquaculture which will prevent the deterioration of water quality and the outbreak of disease.

  15. Prediction of Bladder Cancer Recurrences Using Artificial Neural Networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zulueta Guerrero, Ekaitz; Garay, Naiara Telleria; Lopez-Guede, Jose Manuel; Vilches, Borja Ayerdi; Iragorri, Eider Egilegor; Castaños, David Lecumberri; de La Hoz Rastrollo, Ana Belén; Peña, Carlos Pertusa

    Even if considerable advances have been made in the field of early diagnosis, there is no simple, cheap and non-invasive method that can be applied to the clinical monitorisation of bladder cancer patients. Moreover, bladder cancer recurrences or the reappearance of the tumour after its surgical resection cannot be predicted in the current clinical setting. In this study, Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) were used to assess how different combinations of classical clinical parameters (stage-grade and age) and two urinary markers (growth factor and pro-inflammatory mediator) could predict post surgical recurrences in bladder cancer patients. Different ANN methods, input parameter combinations and recurrence related output variables were used and the resulting positive and negative prediction rates compared. MultiLayer Perceptron (MLP) was selected as the most predictive model and urinary markers showed the highest sensitivity, predicting correctly 50% of the patients that would recur in a 2 year follow-up period.

  16. Cascaded bidirectional recurrent neural networks for protein secondary structure prediction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Jinmiao; Chaudhari, Narendra

    2007-01-01

    Protein secondary structure (PSS) prediction is an important topic in bioinformatics. Our study on a large set of non-homologous proteins shows that long-range interactions commonly exist and negatively affect PSS prediction. Besides, we also reveal strong correlations between secondary structure (SS) elements. In order to take into account the long-range interactions and SS-SS correlations, we propose a novel prediction system based on cascaded bidirectional recurrent neural network (BRNN). We compare the cascaded BRNN against another two BRNN architectures, namely the original BRNN architecture used for speech recognition as well as Pollastri's BRNN that was proposed for PSS prediction. Our cascaded BRNN achieves an overall three state accuracy Q3 of 74.38\\%, and reaches a high Segment OVerlap (SOV) of 66.0455. It outperforms the original BRNN and Pollastri's BRNN in both Q3 and SOV. Specifically, it improves the SOV score by 4-6%.

  17. Predicting pressure drop in venturi scrubbers with artificial neural networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nasseh, S; Mohebbi, A; Jeirani, Z; Sarrafi, A

    2007-05-08

    In this study a new approach based on artificial neural networks (ANNs) has been used to predict pressure drop in venturi scrubbers. The main parameters affecting the pressure drop are mainly the gas velocity in the throat of venturi scrubber (V(g)(th)), liquid to gas flow rate ratio (L/G), and axial distance of the venturi scrubber (z). Three sets of experimental data from five different venturi scrubbers have been applied to design three independent ANNs. Comparing the results of these ANNs and the calculated results from available models shows that the results of ANNs have a better agreement with experimental data.

  18. Convolutional neural network architectures for predicting DNA–protein binding

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zeng, Haoyang; Edwards, Matthew D.; Liu, Ge; Gifford, David K.

    2016-01-01

    Motivation: Convolutional neural networks (CNN) have outperformed conventional methods in modeling the sequence specificity of DNA–protein binding. Yet inappropriate CNN architectures can yield poorer performance than simpler models. Thus an in-depth understanding of how to match CNN architecture to a given task is needed to fully harness the power of CNNs for computational biology applications. Results: We present a systematic exploration of CNN architectures for predicting DNA sequence binding using a large compendium of transcription factor datasets. We identify the best-performing architectures by varying CNN width, depth and pooling designs. We find that adding convolutional kernels to a network is important for motif-based tasks. We show the benefits of CNNs in learning rich higher-order sequence features, such as secondary motifs and local sequence context, by comparing network performance on multiple modeling tasks ranging in difficulty. We also demonstrate how careful construction of sequence benchmark datasets, using approaches that control potentially confounding effects like positional or motif strength bias, is critical in making fair comparisons between competing methods. We explore how to establish the sufficiency of training data for these learning tasks, and we have created a flexible cloud-based framework that permits the rapid exploration of alternative neural network architectures for problems in computational biology. Availability and Implementation: All the models analyzed are available at http://cnn.csail.mit.edu. Contact: gifford@mit.edu Supplementary information: Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online. PMID:27307608

  19. Application of Artificial Neural Networks in Canola Crop Yield Prediction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. J. Sajadi

    2014-02-01

    Full Text Available Crop yield prediction has an important role in agricultural policies such as specification of the crop price. Crop yield prediction researches have been based on regression analysis. In this research canola yield was predicted using Artificial Neural Networks (ANN using 11 crop year climate data (1998-2009 in Gonbad-e-Kavoos region of Golestan province. ANN inputs were mean weekly rainfall, mean weekly temperature, mean weekly relative humidity and mean weekly sun shine hours and ANN output was canola yield (kg/ha. Multi-Layer Perceptron networks (MLP with Levenberg-Marquardt backpropagation learning algorithm was used for crop yield prediction and Root Mean Square Error (RMSE and square of the Correlation Coefficient (R2 criterions were used to evaluate the performance of the ANN. The obtained results show that the 13-20-1 network has the lowest RMSE equal to 101.235 and maximum value of R2 equal to 0.997 and is suitable for predicting canola yield with climate factors.

  20. Prediction of Austenite Formation Temperatures Using Artificial Neural Networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schulze, P; Schmidl, E; Grund, T; Lampke, T

    2016-01-01

    For the modeling and design of heat treatments, in consideration of the development/ transformation of the microstructure, different material data depending on the chemical composition, the respective microstructure/phases and the temperature are necessary. Material data are, e.g. the thermal conductivity, heat capacity, thermal expansion and transformation data etc. The quality of thermal simulations strongly depends on the accuracy of the material data. For many materials, the required data - in particular for different microstructures and temperatures - are rare in the literature. In addition, a different chemical composition within the permitted limits of the considered steel alloy cannot be predicted. A solution for this problem is provided by the calculation of material data using Artificial Neural Networks (ANN). In the present study, the start and finish temperatures of the transformation from the bcc lattice to the fcc lattice structure of hypoeutectoid steels are calculated using an Artificial Neural Network. An appropriate database containing different transformation temperatures (austenite formation temperatures) to train the ANN is selected from the literature. In order to find a suitable feedforward network, the network topologies as well as the activation functions of the hidden layers are varied and subsequently evaluated in terms of the prediction accuracy. The transformation temperatures calculated by the ANN exhibit a very good compliance compared to the experimental data. The results show that the prediction performance is even higher compared to classical empirical equations such as Andrews or Brandis. Therefore, it can be assumed that the presented ANN is a convenient tool to distinguish between bcc and fcc phases in hypoeutectoid steels. (paper)

  1. Prediction of Austenite Formation Temperatures Using Artificial Neural Networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schulze, P.; Schmidl, E.; Grund, T.; Lampke, T.

    2016-03-01

    For the modeling and design of heat treatments, in consideration of the development/ transformation of the microstructure, different material data depending on the chemical composition, the respective microstructure/phases and the temperature are necessary. Material data are, e.g. the thermal conductivity, heat capacity, thermal expansion and transformation data etc. The quality of thermal simulations strongly depends on the accuracy of the material data. For many materials, the required data - in particular for different microstructures and temperatures - are rare in the literature. In addition, a different chemical composition within the permitted limits of the considered steel alloy cannot be predicted. A solution for this problem is provided by the calculation of material data using Artificial Neural Networks (ANN). In the present study, the start and finish temperatures of the transformation from the bcc lattice to the fcc lattice structure of hypoeutectoid steels are calculated using an Artificial Neural Network. An appropriate database containing different transformation temperatures (austenite formation temperatures) to train the ANN is selected from the literature. In order to find a suitable feedforward network, the network topologies as well as the activation functions of the hidden layers are varied and subsequently evaluated in terms of the prediction accuracy. The transformation temperatures calculated by the ANN exhibit a very good compliance compared to the experimental data. The results show that the prediction performance is even higher compared to classical empirical equations such as Andrews or Brandis. Therefore, it can be assumed that the presented ANN is a convenient tool to distinguish between bcc and fcc phases in hypoeutectoid steels.

  2. Experimental method to predict avalanches based on neural networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V. V. Zhdanov

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The article presents results of experimental use of currently available statistical methods to classify the avalanche‑dangerous precipitations and snowfalls in the Kishi Almaty river basin. The avalanche service of Kazakhstan uses graphical methods for prediction of avalanches developed by I.V. Kondrashov and E.I. Kolesnikov. The main objective of this work was to develop a modern model that could be used directly at the avalanche stations. Classification of winter precipitations into dangerous snowfalls and non‑dangerous ones was performed by two following ways: the linear discriminant function (canonical analysis and artificial neural networks. Observational data on weather and avalanches in the gorge Kishi Almaty in the gorge Kishi Almaty were used as a training sample. Coefficients for the canonical variables were calculated by the software «Statistica» (Russian version 6.0, and then the necessary formula had been constructed. The accuracy of the above classification was 96%. Simulator by the authors L.N. Yasnitsky and F.М. Cherepanov was used to learn the neural networks. The trained neural network demonstrated 98% accuracy of the classification. Prepared statistical models are recommended to be tested at the snow‑avalanche stations. Results of the tests will be used for estimation of the model quality and its readiness for the operational work. In future, we plan to apply these models for classification of the avalanche danger by the five‑point international scale.

  3. Research on wind field algorithm of wind lidar based on BP neural network and grey prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Yong; Chen, Chun-Li; Luo, Xiong; Zhang, Yan; Yang, Ze-hou; Zhou, Jie; Shi, Xiao-ding; Wang, Lei

    2018-01-01

    This paper uses the BP neural network and grey algorithm to forecast and study radar wind field. In order to reduce the residual error in the wind field prediction which uses BP neural network and grey algorithm, calculating the minimum value of residual error function, adopting the residuals of the gray algorithm trained by BP neural network, using the trained network model to forecast the residual sequence, using the predicted residual error sequence to modify the forecast sequence of the grey algorithm. The test data show that using the grey algorithm modified by BP neural network can effectively reduce the residual value and improve the prediction precision.

  4. Residual Deep Convolutional Neural Network Predicts MGMT Methylation Status.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Korfiatis, Panagiotis; Kline, Timothy L; Lachance, Daniel H; Parney, Ian F; Buckner, Jan C; Erickson, Bradley J

    2017-10-01

    Predicting methylation of the O6-methylguanine methyltransferase (MGMT) gene status utilizing MRI imaging is of high importance since it is a predictor of response and prognosis in brain tumors. In this study, we compare three different residual deep neural network (ResNet) architectures to evaluate their ability in predicting MGMT methylation status without the need for a distinct tumor segmentation step. We found that the ResNet50 (50 layers) architecture was the best performing model, achieving an accuracy of 94.90% (+/- 3.92%) for the test set (classification of a slice as no tumor, methylated MGMT, or non-methylated). ResNet34 (34 layers) achieved 80.72% (+/- 13.61%) while ResNet18 (18 layers) accuracy was 76.75% (+/- 20.67%). ResNet50 performance was statistically significantly better than both ResNet18 and ResNet34 architectures (p deep neural architectures can be used to predict molecular biomarkers from routine medical images.

  5. Human Splice-Site Prediction with Deep Neural Networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Naito, Tatsuhiko

    2018-04-18

    Accurate splice-site prediction is essential to delineate gene structures from sequence data. Several computational techniques have been applied to create a system to predict canonical splice sites. For classification tasks, deep neural networks (DNNs) have achieved record-breaking results and often outperformed other supervised learning techniques. In this study, a new method of splice-site prediction using DNNs was proposed. The proposed system receives an input sequence data and returns an answer as to whether it is splice site. The length of input is 140 nucleotides, with the consensus sequence (i.e., "GT" and "AG" for the donor and acceptor sites, respectively) in the middle. Each input sequence model is applied to the pretrained DNN model that determines the probability that an input is a splice site. The model consists of convolutional layers and bidirectional long short-term memory network layers. The pretraining and validation were conducted using the data set tested in previously reported methods. The performance evaluation results showed that the proposed method can outperform the previous methods. In addition, the pattern learned by the DNNs was visualized as position frequency matrices (PFMs). Some of PFMs were very similar to the consensus sequence. The trained DNN model and the brief source code for the prediction system are uploaded. Further improvement will be achieved following the further development of DNNs.

  6. Prediction of residential building energy consumption: A neural network approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Biswas, M.A. Rafe; Robinson, Melvin D.; Fumo, Nelson

    2016-01-01

    Some of the challenges to predict energy utilization has gained recognition in the residential sector due to the significant energy consumption in recent decades. However, the modeling of residential building energy consumption is still underdeveloped for optimal and robust solutions while this research area has become of greater relevance with significant advances in computation and simulation. Such advances include the advent of artificial intelligence research in statistical model development. Artificial neural network has emerged as a key method to address the issue of nonlinearity of building energy data and the robust calculation of large and dynamic data. The development and validation of such models on one of the TxAIRE Research houses has been demonstrated in this paper. The TxAIRE houses have been designed to serve as realistic test facilities for demonstrating new technologies. The input variables used from the house data include number of days, outdoor temperature and solar radiation while the output variables are house and heat pump energy consumption. The models based on Levenberg-Marquardt and OWO-Newton algorithms had promising results of coefficients of determination within 0.87–0.91, which is comparable to prior literature. Further work will be explored to develop a robust model for residential building application. - Highlights: • A TxAIRE research house energy consumption data was collected in model development. • Neural network models developed using Levenberg–Marquardt or OWO-Newton algorithms. • Model results match well with data and statistically consistent with literature.

  7. Prediction of Shanghai Index based on Additive Legendre Neural Network

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yang Bin

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, a novel Legendre neural network model is proposed, namely additive Legendre neural network (ALNN. A new hybrid evolutionary method besed on binary particle swarm optimization (BPSO algorithm and firefly algorithm is proposed to optimize the structure and parameters of ALNN model. Shanghai stock exchange composite index is used to evaluate the performance of ALNN. Results reveal that ALNN performs better than LNN model.

  8. Separation prediction in two dimensional boundary layer flows using artificial neural networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sabetghadam, F.; Ghomi, H.A.

    2003-01-01

    In this article, the ability of artificial neural networks in prediction of separation in steady two dimensional boundary layer flows is studied. Data for network training is extracted from numerical solution of an ODE obtained from Von Karman integral equation with approximate one parameter Pohlhousen velocity profile. As an appropriate neural network, a two layer radial basis generalized regression artificial neural network is used. The results shows good agreements between the overall behavior of the flow fields predicted by the artificial neural network and the actual flow fields for some cases. The method easily can be extended to unsteady separation and turbulent as well as compressible boundary layer flows. (author)

  9. Prediction of pelvic organ prolapse using an artificial neural network.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robinson, Christopher J; Swift, Steven; Johnson, Donna D; Almeida, Jonas S

    2008-08-01

    The objective of this investigation was to test the ability of a feedforward artificial neural network (ANN) to differentiate patients who have pelvic organ prolapse (POP) from those who retain good pelvic organ support. Following institutional review board approval, patients with POP (n = 87) and controls with good pelvic organ support (n = 368) were identified from the urogynecology research database. Historical and clinical information was extracted from the database. Data analysis included the training of a feedforward ANN, variable selection, and external validation of the model with an independent data set. Twenty variables were used. The median-performing ANN model used a median of 3 (quartile 1:3 to quartile 3:5) variables and achieved an area under the receiver operator curve of 0.90 (external, independent validation set). Ninety percent sensitivity and 83% specificity were obtained in the external validation by ANN classification. Feedforward ANN modeling is applicable to the identification and prediction of POP.

  10. Prediction of Classroom Reverberation Time using Neural Network

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liyana Zainudin, Fathin; Kadir Mahamad, Abd; Saon, Sharifah; Nizam Yahya, Musli

    2018-04-01

    In this paper, an alternative method for predicting the reverberation time (RT) using neural network (NN) for classroom was designed and explored. Classroom models were created using Google SketchUp software. The NN applied training dataset from the classroom models with RT values that were computed from ODEON 12.10 software. The NN was conducted separately for 500Hz, 1000Hz, and 2000Hz as absorption coefficient that is one of the prominent input variable is frequency dependent. Mean squared error (MSE) and regression (R) values were obtained to examine the NN efficiency. Overall, the NN shows a good result with MSE 0.9. The NN also managed to achieve a percentage of accuracy of 92.53% for 500Hz, 93.66% for 1000Hz, and 93.18% for 2000Hz and thus displays a good and efficient performance. Nevertheless, the optimum RT value is range between 0.75 – 0.9 seconds.

  11. A network security situation prediction model based on wavelet neural network with optimized parameters

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Haibo Zhang

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available The security incidents ion networks are sudden and uncertain, it is very hard to precisely predict the network security situation by traditional methods. In order to improve the prediction accuracy of the network security situation, we build a network security situation prediction model based on Wavelet Neural Network (WNN with optimized parameters by the Improved Niche Genetic Algorithm (INGA. The proposed model adopts WNN which has strong nonlinear ability and fault-tolerance performance. Also, the parameters for WNN are optimized through the adaptive genetic algorithm (GA so that WNN searches more effectively. Considering the problem that the adaptive GA converges slowly and easily turns to the premature problem, we introduce a novel niche technology with a dynamic fuzzy clustering and elimination mechanism to solve the premature convergence of the GA. Our final simulation results show that the proposed INGA-WNN prediction model is more reliable and effective, and it achieves faster convergence-speed and higher prediction accuracy than the Genetic Algorithm-Wavelet Neural Network (GA-WNN, Genetic Algorithm-Back Propagation Neural Network (GA-BPNN and WNN.

  12. A link prediction method for heterogeneous networks based on BP neural network

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Ji-chao; Zhao, Dan-ling; Ge, Bing-Feng; Yang, Ke-Wei; Chen, Ying-Wu

    2018-04-01

    Most real-world systems, composed of different types of objects connected via many interconnections, can be abstracted as various complex heterogeneous networks. Link prediction for heterogeneous networks is of great significance for mining missing links and reconfiguring networks according to observed information, with considerable applications in, for example, friend and location recommendations and disease-gene candidate detection. In this paper, we put forward a novel integrated framework, called MPBP (Meta-Path feature-based BP neural network model), to predict multiple types of links for heterogeneous networks. More specifically, the concept of meta-path is introduced, followed by the extraction of meta-path features for heterogeneous networks. Next, based on the extracted meta-path features, a supervised link prediction model is built with a three-layer BP neural network. Then, the solution algorithm of the proposed link prediction model is put forward to obtain predicted results by iteratively training the network. Last, numerical experiments on the dataset of examples of a gene-disease network and a combat network are conducted to verify the effectiveness and feasibility of the proposed MPBP. It shows that the MPBP with very good performance is superior to the baseline methods.

  13. Prediction of Asphalt Creep Compliance Using Artificial Neural Networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zofka A.

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available Creep compliance of the hot-mix asphalt (HMA is a primary input of the pavement thermal cracking prediction model in the recently developed Mechanistic-Empirical Pavement Design Guide (M-EPDG in the US. The HMA creep compliance is typically determined from the Indirect Tension (IDT tests and requires complex experimental setup. On the other hand, creep compliance of asphalt binders is determined from a relatively simple three- point bending test performed in the Bending Beam Rheometer (BBR device. This paper discusses a process of training an Artificial Neural Network (ANN to correlate the creep compliance values obtained from the IDT with those from an innovative approach of testing HMA beams in the BBR. In addition, ANNs are also trained to predict HMA creep compliance from the creep compliance of asphalt binder and vice versa using the BBR setup. All trained ANNs exhibited a very high correlation of 97 to 99 percent between predicted and measured values. The binder creep compliance curves built on the ANN-predicted values also exhibited good correlation with those obtained from laboratory experiments. However, the simulation of trained ANNs on the independent dataset produced a significant deviation from the expected values which was most likely caused by the differences in material composition, such as aggregate type and gradation, presence of recycled additives, and binder type.

  14. Neural Network Modeling to Predict Shelf Life of Greenhouse Lettuce

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wei-Chin Lin

    2009-04-01

    Full Text Available Greenhouse-grown butter lettuce (Lactuca sativa L. can potentially be stored for 21 days at constant 0°C. When storage temperature was increased to 5°C or 10°C, shelf life was shortened to 14 or 10 days, respectively, in our previous observations. Also, commercial shelf life of 7 to 10 days is common, due to postharvest temperature fluctuations. The objective of this study was to establish neural network (NN models to predict the remaining shelf life (RSL under fluctuating postharvest temperatures. A box of 12 - 24 lettuce heads constituted a sample unit. The end of the shelf life of each head was determined when it showed initial signs of decay or yellowing. Air temperatures inside a shipping box were recorded. Daily average temperatures in storage and averaged shelf life of each box were used as inputs, and the RSL was modeled as an output. An R2 of 0.57 could be observed when a simple NN structure was employed. Since the "future" (or remaining storage temperatures were unavailable at the time of making a prediction, a second NN model was introduced to accommodate a range of future temperatures and associated shelf lives. Using such 2-stage NN models, an R2 of 0.61 could be achieved for predicting RSL. This study indicated that NN modeling has potential for cold chain quality control and shelf life prediction.

  15. Predicting concrete corrosion of sewers using artificial neural network.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jiang, Guangming; Keller, Jurg; Bond, Philip L; Yuan, Zhiguo

    2016-04-01

    Corrosion is often a major failure mechanism for concrete sewers and under such circumstances the sewer service life is largely determined by the progression of microbially induced concrete corrosion. The modelling of sewer processes has become possible due to the improved understanding of in-sewer transformation. Recent systematic studies about the correlation between the corrosion processes and sewer environment factors should be utilized to improve the prediction capability of service life by sewer models. This paper presents an artificial neural network (ANN)-based approach for modelling the concrete corrosion processes in sewers. The approach included predicting the time for the corrosion to initiate and then predicting the corrosion rate after the initiation period. The ANN model was trained and validated with long-term (4.5 years) corrosion data obtained in laboratory corrosion chambers, and further verified with field measurements in real sewers across Australia. The trained model estimated the corrosion initiation time and corrosion rates very close to those measured in Australian sewers. The ANN model performed better than a multiple regression model also developed on the same dataset. Additionally, the ANN model can serve as a prediction framework for sewer service life, which can be progressively improved and expanded by including corrosion rates measured in different sewer conditions. Furthermore, the proposed methodology holds promise to facilitate the construction of analytical models associated with corrosion processes of concrete sewers. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  16. Genetic prediction of type 2 diabetes using deep neural network.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, J; Kim, J; Kwak, M J; Bajaj, M

    2018-04-01

    Type 2 diabetes (T2DM) has strong heritability but genetic models to explain heritability have been challenging. We tested deep neural network (DNN) to predict T2DM using the nested case-control study of Nurses' Health Study (3326 females, 45.6% T2DM) and Health Professionals Follow-up Study (2502 males, 46.5% T2DM). We selected 96, 214, 399, and 678 single-nucleotide polymorphism (SNPs) through Fisher's exact test and L1-penalized logistic regression. We split each dataset randomly in 4:1 to train prediction models and test their performance. DNN and logistic regressions showed better area under the curve (AUC) of ROC curves than the clinical model when 399 or more SNPs included. DNN was superior than logistic regressions in AUC with 399 or more SNPs in male and 678 SNPs in female. Addition of clinical factors consistently increased AUC of DNN but failed to improve logistic regressions with 214 or more SNPs. In conclusion, we show that DNN can be a versatile tool to predict T2DM incorporating large numbers of SNPs and clinical information. Limitations include a relatively small number of the subjects mostly of European ethnicity. Further studies are warranted to confirm and improve performance of genetic prediction models using DNN in different ethnic groups. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  17. Computationally efficient model predictive control algorithms a neural network approach

    CERN Document Server

    Ławryńczuk, Maciej

    2014-01-01

    This book thoroughly discusses computationally efficient (suboptimal) Model Predictive Control (MPC) techniques based on neural models. The subjects treated include: ·         A few types of suboptimal MPC algorithms in which a linear approximation of the model or of the predicted trajectory is successively calculated on-line and used for prediction. ·         Implementation details of the MPC algorithms for feedforward perceptron neural models, neural Hammerstein models, neural Wiener models and state-space neural models. ·         The MPC algorithms based on neural multi-models (inspired by the idea of predictive control). ·         The MPC algorithms with neural approximation with no on-line linearization. ·         The MPC algorithms with guaranteed stability and robustness. ·         Cooperation between the MPC algorithms and set-point optimization. Thanks to linearization (or neural approximation), the presented suboptimal algorithms do not require d...

  18. Prediction of welding shrinkage deformation of bridge steel box girder based on wavelet neural network

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tao, Yulong; Miao, Yunshui; Han, Jiaqi; Yan, Feiyun

    2018-05-01

    Aiming at the low accuracy of traditional forecasting methods such as linear regression method, this paper presents a prediction method for predicting the relationship between bridge steel box girder and its displacement with wavelet neural network. Compared with traditional forecasting methods, this scheme has better local characteristics and learning ability, which greatly improves the prediction ability of deformation. Through analysis of the instance and found that after compared with the traditional prediction method based on wavelet neural network, the rigid beam deformation prediction accuracy is higher, and is superior to the BP neural network prediction results, conform to the actual demand of engineering design.

  19. Application of Neural Network Optimized by Mind Evolutionary Computation in Building Energy Prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Song, Chen; Zhong-Cheng, Wu; Hong, Lv

    2018-03-01

    Building Energy forecasting plays an important role in energy management and plan. Using mind evolutionary algorithm to find the optimal network weights and threshold, to optimize the BP neural network, can overcome the problem of the BP neural network into a local minimum point. The optimized network is used for time series prediction, and the same month forecast, to get two predictive values. Then two kinds of predictive values are put into neural network, to get the final forecast value. The effectiveness of the method was verified by experiment with the energy value of three buildings in Hefei.

  20. Ground Motion Prediction Model Using Artificial Neural Network

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dhanya, J.; Raghukanth, S. T. G.

    2018-03-01

    This article focuses on developing a ground motion prediction equation based on artificial neural network (ANN) technique for shallow crustal earthquakes. A hybrid technique combining genetic algorithm and Levenberg-Marquardt technique is used for training the model. The present model is developed to predict peak ground velocity, and 5% damped spectral acceleration. The input parameters for the prediction are moment magnitude ( M w), closest distance to rupture plane ( R rup), shear wave velocity in the region ( V s30) and focal mechanism ( F). A total of 13,552 ground motion records from 288 earthquakes provided by the updated NGA-West2 database released by Pacific Engineering Research Center are utilized to develop the model. The ANN architecture considered for the model consists of 192 unknowns including weights and biases of all the interconnected nodes. The performance of the model is observed to be within the prescribed error limits. In addition, the results from the study are found to be comparable with the existing relations in the global database. The developed model is further demonstrated by estimating site-specific response spectra for Shimla city located in Himalayan region.

  1. An integrated artificial neural networks approach for predicting global radiation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Azadeh, A.; Maghsoudi, A.; Sohrabkhani, S.

    2009-01-01

    This article presents an integrated artificial neural network (ANN) approach for predicting solar global radiation by climatological variables. The integrated ANN trains and tests data with multi layer perceptron (MLP) approach which has the lowest mean absolute percentage error (MAPE). The proposed approach is particularly useful for locations where no available measurement equipment. Also, it considers all related climatological and meteorological parameters as input variables. To show the applicability and superiority of the integrated ANN approach, monthly data were collected for 6 years (1995-2000) in six nominal cities in Iran. Separate model for each city is considered and the quantity of solar global radiation in each city is calculated. Furthermore an integrated ANN model has been introduced for prediction of solar global radiation. The acquired results of the integrated model have shown high accuracy of about 94%. The results of the integrated model have been compared with traditional angstrom's model to show its considerable accuracy. Therefore, the proposed approach can be used as an efficient tool for prediction of solar radiation in the remote and rural locations with no direct measurement equipment.

  2. Upset Prediction in Friction Welding Using Radial Basis Function Neural Network

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wei Liu

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper addresses the upset prediction problem of friction welded joints. Based on finite element simulations of inertia friction welding (IFW, a radial basis function (RBF neural network was developed initially to predict the final upset for a number of welding parameters. The predicted joint upset by the RBF neural network was compared to validated finite element simulations, producing an error of less than 8.16% which is reasonable. Furthermore, the effects of initial rotational speed and axial pressure on the upset were investigated in relation to energy conversion with the RBF neural network. The developed RBF neural network was also applied to linear friction welding (LFW and continuous drive friction welding (CDFW. The correlation coefficients of RBF prediction for LFW and CDFW were 0.963 and 0.998, respectively, which further suggest that an RBF neural network is an effective method for upset prediction of friction welded joints.

  3. Prediction of Industrial Electric Energy Consumption in Anhui Province Based on GA-BP Neural Network

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Jiajing; Yin, Guodong; Ni, Youcong; Chen, Jinlan

    2018-01-01

    In order to improve the prediction accuracy of industrial electrical energy consumption, a prediction model of industrial electrical energy consumption was proposed based on genetic algorithm and neural network. The model use genetic algorithm to optimize the weights and thresholds of BP neural network, and the model is used to predict the energy consumption of industrial power in Anhui Province, to improve the prediction accuracy of industrial electric energy consumption in Anhui province. By comparing experiment of GA-BP prediction model and BP neural network model, the GA-BP model is more accurate with smaller number of neurons in the hidden layer.

  4. Application of Functional Link Artificial Neural Network for Prediction of Machinery Noise in Opencast Mines

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Santosh Kumar Nanda

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Functional link-based neural network models were applied to predict opencast mining machineries noise. The paper analyzes the prediction capabilities of functional link neural network based noise prediction models vis-à-vis existing statistical models. In order to find the actual noise status in opencast mines, some of the popular noise prediction models, for example, ISO-9613-2, CONCAWE, VDI, and ENM, have been applied in mining and allied industries to predict the machineries noise by considering various attenuation factors. Functional link artificial neural network (FLANN, polynomial perceptron network (PPN, and Legendre neural network (LeNN were used to predict the machinery noise in opencast mines. The case study is based on data collected from an opencast coal mine of Orissa, India. From the present investigations, it could be concluded that the FLANN model give better noise prediction than the PPN and LeNN model.

  5. Convolutional neural networks for prostate cancer recurrence prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kumar, Neeraj; Verma, Ruchika; Arora, Ashish; Kumar, Abhay; Gupta, Sanchit; Sethi, Amit; Gann, Peter H.

    2017-03-01

    Accurate prediction of the treatment outcome is important for cancer treatment planning. We present an approach to predict prostate cancer (PCa) recurrence after radical prostatectomy using tissue images. We used a cohort whose case vs. control (recurrent vs. non-recurrent) status had been determined using post-treatment follow up. Further, to aid the development of novel biomarkers of PCa recurrence, cases and controls were paired based on matching of other predictive clinical variables such as Gleason grade, stage, age, and race. For this cohort, tissue resection microarray with up to four cores per patient was available. The proposed approach is based on deep learning, and its novelty lies in the use of two separate convolutional neural networks (CNNs) - one to detect individual nuclei even in the crowded areas, and the other to classify them. To detect nuclear centers in an image, the first CNN predicts distance transform of the underlying (but unknown) multi-nuclear map from the input HE image. The second CNN classifies the patches centered at nuclear centers into those belonging to cases or controls. Voting across patches extracted from image(s) of a patient yields the probability of recurrence for the patient. The proposed approach gave 0.81 AUC for a sample of 30 recurrent cases and 30 non-recurrent controls, after being trained on an independent set of 80 case-controls pairs. If validated further, such an approach might help in choosing between a combination of treatment options such as active surveillance, radical prostatectomy, radiation, and hormone therapy. It can also generalize to the prediction of treatment outcomes in other cancers.

  6. The Multi-Layered Perceptrons Neural Networks for the Prediction of Daily Solar Radiation

    OpenAIRE

    Radouane Iqdour; Abdelouhab Zeroual

    2007-01-01

    The Multi-Layered Perceptron (MLP) Neural networks have been very successful in a number of signal processing applications. In this work we have studied the possibilities and the met difficulties in the application of the MLP neural networks for the prediction of daily solar radiation data. We have used the Polack-Ribière algorithm for training the neural networks. A comparison, in term of the statistical indicators, with a linear model most used in literature, is also perfo...

  7. Predictive Control of Hydronic Floor Heating Systems using Neural Networks and Genetic Algorithms

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Vinther, Kasper; Green, Torben; Østergaard, Søren

    2017-01-01

    This paper presents the use a neural network and a micro genetic algorithm to optimize future set-points in existing hydronic floor heating systems for improved energy efficiency. The neural network can be trained to predict the impact of changes in set-points on future room temperatures. Additio...... space is not guaranteed. Evaluation of the performance of multiple neural networks is performed, using different levels of information, and optimization results are presented on a detailed house simulation model....

  8. Deep Bidirectional and Unidirectional LSTM Recurrent Neural Network for Network-wide Traffic Speed Prediction

    OpenAIRE

    Cui, Zhiyong; Ke, Ruimin; Wang, Yinhai

    2018-01-01

    Short-term traffic forecasting based on deep learning methods, especially long short-term memory (LSTM) neural networks, has received much attention in recent years. However, the potential of deep learning methods in traffic forecasting has not yet fully been exploited in terms of the depth of the model architecture, the spatial scale of the prediction area, and the predictive power of spatial-temporal data. In this paper, a deep stacked bidirectional and unidirectional LSTM (SBU- LSTM) neura...

  9. Competitive Learning Neural Network Ensemble Weighted by Predicted Performance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ye, Qiang

    2010-01-01

    Ensemble approaches have been shown to enhance classification by combining the outputs from a set of voting classifiers. Diversity in error patterns among base classifiers promotes ensemble performance. Multi-task learning is an important characteristic for Neural Network classifiers. Introducing a secondary output unit that receives different…

  10. Prediction of fracture toughness temperature dependence applying neural network

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Dlouhý, Ivo; Hadraba, Hynek; Chlup, Zdeněk; Šmída, T.

    2011-01-01

    Roč. 11, č. 1 (2011), s. 9-14 ISSN 1451-3749 R&D Projects: GA ČR(CZ) GAP108/10/0466 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z20410507 Keywords : brittle to ductile transition * fracture toughness * artificial neural network * steels Subject RIV: JL - Materials Fatigue, Friction Mechanics

  11. Neural network-based nonlinear model predictive control vs. linear quadratic gaussian control

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cho, C.; Vance, R.; Mardi, N.; Qian, Z.; Prisbrey, K.

    1997-01-01

    One problem with the application of neural networks to the multivariable control of mineral and extractive processes is determining whether and how to use them. The objective of this investigation was to compare neural network control to more conventional strategies and to determine if there are any advantages in using neural network control in terms of set-point tracking, rise time, settling time, disturbance rejection and other criteria. The procedure involved developing neural network controllers using both historical plant data and simulation models. Various control patterns were tried, including both inverse and direct neural network plant models. These were compared to state space controllers that are, by nature, linear. For grinding and leaching circuits, a nonlinear neural network-based model predictive control strategy was superior to a state space-based linear quadratic gaussian controller. The investigation pointed out the importance of incorporating state space into neural networks by making them recurrent, i.e., feeding certain output state variables into input nodes in the neural network. It was concluded that neural network controllers can have better disturbance rejection, set-point tracking, rise time, settling time and lower set-point overshoot, and it was also concluded that neural network controllers can be more reliable and easy to implement in complex, multivariable plants.

  12. A comparison of neural network architectures for the prediction of MRR in EDM

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jena, A. R.; Das, Raja

    2017-11-01

    The aim of the research work is to predict the material removal rate of a work-piece in electrical discharge machining (EDM). Here, an effort has been made to predict the material removal rate through back-propagation neural network (BPN) and radial basis function neural network (RBFN) for a work-piece of AISI D2 steel. The input parameters for the architecture are discharge-current (Ip), pulse-duration (Ton), and duty-cycle (τ) taken for consideration to obtained the output for material removal rate of the work-piece. In the architecture, it has been observed that radial basis function neural network is comparatively faster than back-propagation neural network but logically back-propagation neural network results more real value. Therefore BPN may consider as a better process in this architecture for consistent prediction to save time and money for conducting experiments.

  13. Rainfall prediction methodology with binary multilayer perceptron neural networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Esteves, João Trevizoli; de Souza Rolim, Glauco; Ferraudo, Antonio Sergio

    2018-05-01

    Precipitation, in short periods of time, is a phenomenon associated with high levels of uncertainty and variability. Given its nature, traditional forecasting techniques are expensive and computationally demanding. This paper presents a soft computing technique to forecast the occurrence of rainfall in short ranges of time by artificial neural networks (ANNs) in accumulated periods from 3 to 7 days for each climatic season, mitigating the necessity of predicting its amount. With this premise it is intended to reduce the variance, rise the bias of data and lower the responsibility of the model acting as a filter for quantitative models by removing subsequent occurrences of zeros values of rainfall which leads to bias the and reduces its performance. The model were developed with time series from ten agriculturally relevant regions in Brazil, these places are the ones with the longest available weather time series and and more deficient in accurate climate predictions, it was available 60 years of daily mean air temperature and accumulated precipitation which were used to estimate the potential evapotranspiration and water balance; these were the variables used as inputs for the ANNs models. The mean accuracy of the model for all the accumulated periods were 78% on summer, 71% on winter 62% on spring and 56% on autumn, it was identified that the effect of continentality, the effect of altitude and the volume of normal precipitation, have an direct impact on the accuracy of the ANNs. The models have peak performance in well defined seasons, but looses its accuracy in transitional seasons and places under influence of macro-climatic and mesoclimatic effects, which indicates that this technique can be used to indicate the eminence of rainfall with some limitations.

  14. Neural networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Denby, Bruce; Lindsey, Clark; Lyons, Louis

    1992-01-01

    The 1980s saw a tremendous renewal of interest in 'neural' information processing systems, or 'artificial neural networks', among computer scientists and computational biologists studying cognition. Since then, the growth of interest in neural networks in high energy physics, fueled by the need for new information processing technologies for the next generation of high energy proton colliders, can only be described as explosive

  15. Genetic algorithm based adaptive neural network ensemble and its application in predicting carbon flux

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xue, Y.; Liu, S.; Hu, Y.; Yang, J.; Chen, Q.

    2007-01-01

    To improve the accuracy in prediction, Genetic Algorithm based Adaptive Neural Network Ensemble (GA-ANNE) is presented. Intersections are allowed between different training sets based on the fuzzy clustering analysis, which ensures the diversity as well as the accuracy of individual Neural Networks (NNs). Moreover, to improve the accuracy of the adaptive weights of individual NNs, GA is used to optimize the cluster centers. Empirical results in predicting carbon flux of Duke Forest reveal that GA-ANNE can predict the carbon flux more accurately than Radial Basis Function Neural Network (RBFNN), Bagging NN ensemble, and ANNE. ?? 2007 IEEE.

  16. Neural networks for predictive control of the mechanism of ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    In this paper, we are interested in the study of the control of orientation of a wind turbine like means of optimization of his output/input ratio (efficiency). The approach suggested is based on the neural predictive control which is justified by the randomness of the wind on the one hand, and on the other hand by the capacity of ...

  17. Flash flood prediction in large dams using neural networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Múnera Estrada, J. C.; García Bartual, R.

    2009-04-01

    A flow forecasting methodology is presented as a support tool for flood management in large dams. The practical and efficient use of hydrological real-time measurements is necessary to operate early warning systems for flood disasters prevention, either in natural catchments or in those regulated with reservoirs. In this latter case, the optimal dam operation during flood scenarios should reduce the downstream risks, and at the same time achieve a compromise between different goals: structural security, minimize predictions uncertainty and water resources system management objectives. Downstream constraints depend basically on the geomorphology of the valley, the critical flow thresholds for flooding, the land use and vulnerability associated with human settlements and their economic activities. A dam operation during a flood event thus requires appropriate strategies depending on the flood magnitude and the initial freeboard at the reservoir. The most important difficulty arises from the inherently stochastic character of peak rainfall intensities, their strong spatial and temporal variability, and the highly nonlinear response of semiarid catchments resulting from initial soil moisture condition and the dominant flow mechanisms. The practical integration of a flow prediction model in a real-time system should include combined techniques of pre-processing, data verification and completion, assimilation of information and implementation of real time filters depending on the system characteristics. This work explores the behaviour of real-time flood forecast algorithms based on artificial neural networks (ANN) techniques, in the River Meca catchment (Huelva, Spain), regulated by El Sancho dam. The dam is equipped with three Taintor gates of 12x6 meters. The hydrological data network includes five high-resolution automatic pluviometers (dt=10 min) and three high precision water level sensors in the reservoir. A cross correlation analysis between precipitation data

  18. THE COMPUTATIONAL INTELLIGENCE TECHNIQUES FOR PREDICTIONS - ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORKS

    OpenAIRE

    Mary Violeta Bar

    2014-01-01

    The computational intelligence techniques are used in problems which can not be solved by traditional techniques when there is insufficient data to develop a model problem or when they have errors.Computational intelligence, as he called Bezdek (Bezdek, 1992) aims at modeling of biological intelligence. Artificial Neural Networks( ANNs) have been applied to an increasing number of real world problems of considerable complexity. Their most important advantage is solving problems that are too c...

  19. Rotation-invariant convolutional neural networks for galaxy morphology prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dieleman, Sander; Willett, Kyle W.; Dambre, Joni

    2015-06-01

    Measuring the morphological parameters of galaxies is a key requirement for studying their formation and evolution. Surveys such as the Sloan Digital Sky Survey have resulted in the availability of very large collections of images, which have permitted population-wide analyses of galaxy morphology. Morphological analysis has traditionally been carried out mostly via visual inspection by trained experts, which is time consuming and does not scale to large (≳104) numbers of images. Although attempts have been made to build automated classification systems, these have not been able to achieve the desired level of accuracy. The Galaxy Zoo project successfully applied a crowdsourcing strategy, inviting online users to classify images by answering a series of questions. Unfortunately, even this approach does not scale well enough to keep up with the increasing availability of galaxy images. We present a deep neural network model for galaxy morphology classification which exploits translational and rotational symmetry. It was developed in the context of the Galaxy Challenge, an international competition to build the best model for morphology classification based on annotated images from the Galaxy Zoo project. For images with high agreement among the Galaxy Zoo participants, our model is able to reproduce their consensus with near-perfect accuracy (>99 per cent) for most questions. Confident model predictions are highly accurate, which makes the model suitable for filtering large collections of images and forwarding challenging images to experts for manual annotation. This approach greatly reduces the experts' workload without affecting accuracy. The application of these algorithms to larger sets of training data will be critical for analysing results from future surveys such as the Large Synoptic Survey Telescope.

  20. Neural Network-Based Resistance Spot Welding Control and Quality Prediction

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Allen, J.D., Jr.; Ivezic, N.D.; Zacharia, T.

    1999-07-10

    This paper describes the development and evaluation of neural network-based systems for industrial resistance spot welding process control and weld quality assessment. The developed systems utilize recurrent neural networks for process control and both recurrent networks and static networks for quality prediction. The first section describes a system capable of both welding process control and real-time weld quality assessment, The second describes the development and evaluation of a static neural network-based weld quality assessment system that relied on experimental design to limit the influence of environmental variability. Relevant data analysis methods are also discussed. The weld classifier resulting from the analysis successfldly balances predictive power and simplicity of interpretation. The results presented for both systems demonstrate clearly that neural networks can be employed to address two significant problems common to the resistance spot welding industry, control of the process itself, and non-destructive determination of resulting weld quality.

  1. Neural Network Predictions of the 4-Quadrant Wageningen Propeller Series (CD-ROM)

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Roddy, Robert F; Hess, David E; Faller, Will

    2006-01-01

    .... This report describes the development of feedforward neural network (FFNN) predictions of four-quadrant thrust and torque behavior for the Wageningen B-Screw Series of propellers and for two Wageningen ducted propeller series...

  2. BrainNetCNN: Convolutional neural networks for brain networks; towards predicting neurodevelopment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kawahara, Jeremy; Brown, Colin J; Miller, Steven P; Booth, Brian G; Chau, Vann; Grunau, Ruth E; Zwicker, Jill G; Hamarneh, Ghassan

    2017-02-01

    We propose BrainNetCNN, a convolutional neural network (CNN) framework to predict clinical neurodevelopmental outcomes from brain networks. In contrast to the spatially local convolutions done in traditional image-based CNNs, our BrainNetCNN is composed of novel edge-to-edge, edge-to-node and node-to-graph convolutional filters that leverage the topological locality of structural brain networks. We apply the BrainNetCNN framework to predict cognitive and motor developmental outcome scores from structural brain networks of infants born preterm. Diffusion tensor images (DTI) of preterm infants, acquired between 27 and 46 weeks gestational age, were used to construct a dataset of structural brain connectivity networks. We first demonstrate the predictive capabilities of BrainNetCNN on synthetic phantom networks with simulated injury patterns and added noise. BrainNetCNN outperforms a fully connected neural-network with the same number of model parameters on both phantoms with focal and diffuse injury patterns. We then apply our method to the task of joint prediction of Bayley-III cognitive and motor scores, assessed at 18 months of age, adjusted for prematurity. We show that our BrainNetCNN framework outperforms a variety of other methods on the same data. Furthermore, BrainNetCNN is able to identify an infant's postmenstrual age to within about 2 weeks. Finally, we explore the high-level features learned by BrainNetCNN by visualizing the importance of each connection in the brain with respect to predicting the outcome scores. These findings are then discussed in the context of the anatomy and function of the developing preterm infant brain. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  3. Heat transfer prediction in a square porous medium using artificial neural network

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ahamad, N. Ameer; Athani, Abdulgaphur; Badruddin, Irfan Anjum

    2018-05-01

    Heat transfer in porous media has been investigated extensively because of its applications in various important fields. Neural network approach is applied to analyze steady two dimensional free convection flows through a porous medium fixed in a square cavity. The backpropagation neural network is trained and used to predict the heat transfer. The results are compared with available information in the literature. It is found that the heat transfer increases with increase in Rayleigh number. It is further found that the local Nusselt number decreases along the height of cavity. The neural network is found to predict the heat transfer behavior accurately for given parameters.

  4. An Application to the Prediction of LOD Change Based on General Regression Neural Network

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, X. H.; Wang, Q. J.; Zhu, J. J.; Zhang, H.

    2011-07-01

    Traditional prediction of the LOD (length of day) change was based on linear models, such as the least square model and the autoregressive technique, etc. Due to the complex non-linear features of the LOD variation, the performances of the linear model predictors are not fully satisfactory. This paper applies a non-linear neural network - general regression neural network (GRNN) model to forecast the LOD change, and the results are analyzed and compared with those obtained with the back propagation neural network and other models. The comparison shows that the performance of the GRNN model in the prediction of the LOD change is efficient and feasible.

  5. Training the Recurrent neural network by the Fuzzy Min-Max algorithm for fault prediction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zemouri, Ryad; Racoceanu, Daniel; Zerhouni, Noureddine; Minca, Eugenia; Filip, Florin

    2009-01-01

    In this paper, we present a training technique of a Recurrent Radial Basis Function neural network for fault prediction. We use the Fuzzy Min-Max technique to initialize the k-center of the RRBF neural network. The k-means algorithm is then applied to calculate the centers that minimize the mean square error of the prediction task. The performances of the k-means algorithm are then boosted by the Fuzzy Min-Max technique.

  6. Artificial Neural Network for the Prediction of Chromosomal Abnormalities in Azoospermic Males.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Akinsal, Emre Can; Haznedar, Bulent; Baydilli, Numan; Kalinli, Adem; Ozturk, Ahmet; Ekmekçioğlu, Oğuz

    2018-02-04

    To evaluate whether an artifical neural network helps to diagnose any chromosomal abnormalities in azoospermic males. The data of azoospermic males attending to a tertiary academic referral center were evaluated retrospectively. Height, total testicular volume, follicle stimulating hormone, luteinising hormone, total testosterone and ejaculate volume of the patients were used for the analyses. In artificial neural network, the data of 310 azoospermics were used as the education and 115 as the test set. Logistic regression analyses and discriminant analyses were performed for statistical analyses. The tests were re-analysed with a neural network. Both logistic regression analyses and artificial neural network predicted the presence or absence of chromosomal abnormalities with more than 95% accuracy. The use of artificial neural network model has yielded satisfactory results in terms of distinguishing patients whether they have any chromosomal abnormality or not.

  7. Maximum solid concentrations of coal water slurries predicted by neural network models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cheng, Jun; Li, Yanchang; Zhou, Junhu; Liu, Jianzhong; Cen, Kefa

    2010-12-15

    The nonlinear back-propagation (BP) neural network models were developed to predict the maximum solid concentration of coal water slurry (CWS) which is a substitute for oil fuel, based on physicochemical properties of 37 typical Chinese coals. The Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm was used to train five BP neural network models with different input factors. The data pretreatment method, learning rate and hidden neuron number were optimized by training models. It is found that the Hardgrove grindability index (HGI), moisture and coalification degree of parent coal are 3 indispensable factors for the prediction of CWS maximum solid concentration. Each BP neural network model gives a more accurate prediction result than the traditional polynomial regression equation. The BP neural network model with 3 input factors of HGI, moisture and oxygen/carbon ratio gives the smallest mean absolute error of 0.40%, which is much lower than that of 1.15% given by the traditional polynomial regression equation. (author)

  8. Prediction of thermal hydraulic parameters in the loss of coolant accident by using artificial neural networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vaziri, N.; Erfani, A.; Monsefi, M.; Hajabri, A.

    2008-01-01

    In a reactor accident like loss of coolant accident , one or more signals may not be monitored by control panel for some reasons such as interruptions and so on. Therefore a fast alternative method could guarantee the safe and reliable exploration of nuclear power planets. In this study, we used artificial neural network with Elman recurrent structure to predict six thermal hydraulic signals in a loss of coolant accident after upper plenum break. In the prediction procedure, a few previous samples are fed to the artificial neural network and the output value or next time step is estimated by the network output. The Elman recurrent network is trained with the data obtained from the benchmark simulation of loss of coolant accident in VVER. The results reveal that the predicted values follow the real trends well and artificial neural network can be used as a fast alternative prediction tool in loss of coolant accident

  9. Robust recurrent neural network modeling for software fault detection and correction prediction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hu, Q.P.; Xie, M.; Ng, S.H.; Levitin, G.

    2007-01-01

    Software fault detection and correction processes are related although different, and they should be studied together. A practical approach is to apply software reliability growth models to model fault detection, and fault correction process is assumed to be a delayed process. On the other hand, the artificial neural networks model, as a data-driven approach, tries to model these two processes together with no assumptions. Specifically, feedforward backpropagation networks have shown their advantages over analytical models in fault number predictions. In this paper, the following approach is explored. First, recurrent neural networks are applied to model these two processes together. Within this framework, a systematic networks configuration approach is developed with genetic algorithm according to the prediction performance. In order to provide robust predictions, an extra factor characterizing the dispersion of prediction repetitions is incorporated into the performance function. Comparisons with feedforward neural networks and analytical models are developed with respect to a real data set

  10. Artificial Neural Networks in the prediction of insolvency. A paradigm shift to traditional business practices recipes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marcia M. Lastre Valdes

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available In this paper a review and analysis of the major theories and models that address the prediction of corporate bankruptcy and insolvency is made. Neural networks are a tool of most recent appearance, although in recent years have received considerable attention from the academic and professional world, and have started to be implemented in different models testing organizations insolvency based on neural computation. The purpose of this paper is to yield evidence of the usefulness of Artificial Neural Networks in the problem of bankruptcy prediction insolence or so compare its predictive ability with the methods commonly used in that context. The findings suggest that high predictive capabilities can be achieved  using artificial neural networks, with qualitative and quantitative variables.

  11. Modeling and Control of CSTR using Model based Neural Network Predictive Control

    OpenAIRE

    Shrivastava, Piyush

    2012-01-01

    This paper presents a predictive control strategy based on neural network model of the plant is applied to Continuous Stirred Tank Reactor (CSTR). This system is a highly nonlinear process; therefore, a nonlinear predictive method, e.g., neural network predictive control, can be a better match to govern the system dynamics. In the paper, the NN model and the way in which it can be used to predict the behavior of the CSTR process over a certain prediction horizon are described, and some commen...

  12. Nonlinear Time Series Prediction Using Chaotic Neural Networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Ke-Ping; Chen, Tian-Lun

    2001-06-01

    A nonlinear feedback term is introduced into the evaluation equation of weights of the backpropagation algorithm for neural network, the network becomes a chaotic one. For the purpose of that we can investigate how the different feedback terms affect the process of learning and forecasting, we use the model to forecast the nonlinear time series which is produced by Makey-Glass equation. By selecting the suitable feedback term, the system can escape from the local minima and converge to the global minimum or its approximate solutions, and the forecasting results are better than those of backpropagation algorithm. The project supported by National Basic Research Project "Nonlinear Science" and National Natural Science Foundation of China under Grant No. 60074020

  13. Predicting carbonate permeabilities from wireline logs using a back-propagation neural network

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wiener, J.M.; Moll, R.F.; Rogers, J.A.

    1991-01-01

    This paper explores the applicability of using Neural Networks to aid in the determination of carbonate permeability from wireline logs. Resistivity, interval transit time, neutron porosity, and bulk density logs form Texaco's Stockyard Creek Oil field were used as input to a specially designed neural network to predict core permeabilities in this carbonate reservoir. Also of interest was the comparison of the neural network's results to those of standard statistical techniques. The process of developing the neural network for this problem has shown that a good understanding of the data is required when creating the training set from which the network learns. This network was trained to learn core permeabilities from raw and transformed log data using a hyperbolic tangent transfer function and a sum of squares global error function. Also, it required two hidden layers to solve this particular problem

  14. Prediction of protein hydration sites from sequence by modular neural networks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ehrlich, L.; Reczko, M.; Bohr, Henrik

    1998-01-01

    The hydration properties of a protein are important determinants of its structure and function. Here, modular neural networks are employed to predict ordered hydration sites using protein sequence information. First, secondary structure and solvent accessibility are predicted from sequence with two...... separate neural networks. These predictions are used as input together with protein sequences for networks predicting hydration of residues, backbone atoms and sidechains. These networks are teined with protein crystal structures. The prediction of hydration is improved by adding information on secondary...... structure and solvent accessibility and, using actual values of these properties, redidue hydration can be predicted to 77% accuracy with a Metthews coefficient of 0.43. However, predicted property data with an accuracy of 60-70% result in less than half the improvement in predictive performance observed...

  15. Neural Networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Smith, Patrick I.

    2003-01-01

    Physicists use large detectors to measure particles created in high-energy collisions at particle accelerators. These detectors typically produce signals indicating either where ionization occurs along the path of the particle, or where energy is deposited by the particle. The data produced by these signals is fed into pattern recognition programs to try to identify what particles were produced, and to measure the energy and direction of these particles. Ideally, there are many techniques used in this pattern recognition software. One technique, neural networks, is particularly suitable for identifying what type of particle caused by a set of energy deposits. Neural networks can derive meaning from complicated or imprecise data, extract patterns, and detect trends that are too complex to be noticed by either humans or other computer related processes. To assist in the advancement of this technology, Physicists use a tool kit to experiment with several neural network techniques. The goal of this research is interface a neural network tool kit into Java Analysis Studio (JAS3), an application that allows data to be analyzed from any experiment. As the final result, a physicist will have the ability to train, test, and implement a neural network with the desired output while using JAS3 to analyze the results or output. Before an implementation of a neural network can take place, a firm understanding of what a neural network is and how it works is beneficial. A neural network is an artificial representation of the human brain that tries to simulate the learning process [5]. It is also important to think of the word artificial in that definition as computer programs that use calculations during the learning process. In short, a neural network learns by representative examples. Perhaps the easiest way to describe the way neural networks learn is to explain how the human brain functions. The human brain contains billions of neural cells that are responsible for processing

  16. SELECTING NEURAL NETWORK ARCHITECTURE FOR INVESTMENT PROFITABILITY PREDICTIONS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marijana Zekić-Sušac

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available After production and operations, finance and investments are one of the mostfrequent areas of neural network applications in business. The lack of standardizedparadigms that can determine the efficiency of certain NN architectures in a particularproblem domain is still present. The selection of NN architecture needs to take intoconsideration the type of the problem, the nature of the data in the model, as well as somestrategies based on result comparison. The paper describes previous research in that areaand suggests a forward strategy for selecting best NN algorithm and structure. Since thestrategy includes both parameter-based and variable-based testings, it can be used forselecting NN architectures as well as for extracting models. The backpropagation, radialbasis,modular, LVQ and probabilistic neural network algorithms were used on twoindependent sets: stock market and credit scoring data. The results show that neuralnetworks give better accuracy comparing to multiple regression and logistic regressionmodels. Since it is model-independant, the strategy can be used by researchers andprofessionals in other areas of application.

  17. Modelling and prediction for chaotic fir laser attractor using rational function neural network.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cho, S

    2001-02-01

    Many real-world systems such as irregular ECG signal, volatility of currency exchange rate and heated fluid reaction exhibit highly complex nonlinear characteristic known as chaos. These chaotic systems cannot be retreated satisfactorily using linear system theory due to its high dimensionality and irregularity. This research focuses on prediction and modelling of chaotic FIR (Far InfraRed) laser system for which the underlying equations are not given. This paper proposed a method for prediction and modelling a chaotic FIR laser time series using rational function neural network. Three network architectures, TDNN (Time Delayed Neural Network), RBF (radial basis function) network and the RF (rational function) network, are also presented. Comparisons between these networks performance show the improvements introduced by the RF network in terms of a decrement in network complexity and better ability of predictability.

  18. Prediction of ferric iron precipitation in bioleaching process using partial least squares and artificial neural network

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Golmohammadi Hassan

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available A quantitative structure-property relationship (QSPR study based on partial least squares (PLS and artificial neural network (ANN was developed for the prediction of ferric iron precipitation in bioleaching process. The leaching temperature, initial pH, oxidation/reduction potential (ORP, ferrous concentration and particle size of ore were used as inputs to the network. The output of the model was ferric iron precipitation. The optimal condition of the neural network was obtained by adjusting various parameters by trial-and-error. After optimization and training of the network according to back-propagation algorithm, a 5-5-1 neural network was generated for prediction of ferric iron precipitation. The root mean square error for the neural network calculated ferric iron precipitation for training, prediction and validation set are 32.860, 40.739 and 35.890, respectively, which are smaller than those obtained by PLS model (180.972, 165.047 and 149.950, respectively. Results obtained reveal the reliability and good predictivity of neural network model for the prediction of ferric iron precipitation in bioleaching process.

  19. Application of neural networks to signal prediction in nuclear power plant

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wan Joo Kim; Soon Heung Chang; Byung Ho Lee

    1993-01-01

    This paper describes the feasibility study of an artificial neural network for signal prediction. The purpose of signal prediction is to estimate the value of undetected next time step signal. As the prediction method, based on the idea of auto regression, a few previous signals are inputs to the artificial neural network and the signal value of next time step is estimated with the outputs of the network. The artificial neural network can be applied to the nonlinear system and answers in short time. The training algorithm is a modified backpropagation model, which can effectively reduce the training time. The target signal of the simulation is the steam generator water level, which is one of the important parameters in nuclear power plants. The simulation result shows that the predicted value follows the real trend well

  20. From Imitation to Prediction, Data Compression vs Recurrent Neural Networks for Natural Language Processing

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Juan Andres Laura

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available In recent studies Recurrent Neural Networks were used for generative processes and their surprising performance can be explained by their ability to create good predictions. In addition, Data Compression is also based on prediction. What the problem comes down to is whether a data compressor could be used to perform as well as recurrent neural networks in the natural language processing tasks of sentiment analysis and automatic text generation. If this is possible, then the problem comes down to determining if a compression algorithm is even more intelligent than a neural network in such tasks. In our journey, a fundamental difference between a Data Compression Algorithm and Recurrent Neural Networks has been discovered.

  1. An Artificial Neural Network Based Short-term Dynamic Prediction of Algae Bloom

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yao Junyang

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available This paper proposes a method of short-term prediction of algae bloom based on artificial neural network. Firstly, principal component analysis is applied to water environmental factors in algae bloom raceway ponds to get main factors that influence the formation of algae blooms. Then, a model of short-term dynamic prediction based on neural network is built with the current chlorophyll_a values as input and the chlorophyll_a values in the next moment as output to realize short-term dynamic prediction of algae bloom. Simulation results show that the model can realize short-term prediction of algae bloom effectively.

  2. How Do Neural Networks Enhance the Predictability of Central European Stock Returns?

    OpenAIRE

    Jozef Baruník

    2008-01-01

    In this paper, the author applies neural networks as nonparametric and nonlinear methods to Central European (Czech, Polish, Hungarian, and German) stock market returns modeling. In the first part, he presents the intuition of neural networks and also discusses statistical methods for comparing predictive accuracy, as well as economic significance measures. In the empirical tests, he uses data on the daily and weekly returns of the PX-50, BUX, WIG, and DAX stock exchange indices for the 2000–...

  3. Breakout Prediction Based on BP Neural Network in Continuous Casting Process

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhang Ben-guo

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available An improved BP neural network model was presented by modifying the learning algorithm of the traditional BP neural network, based on the Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm, and was applied to the breakout prediction system in the continuous casting process. The results showed that the accuracy rate of the model for the temperature pattern of sticking breakout was 96.43%, and the quote rate was 100%, that verified the feasibility of the model.

  4. Disruption prediction with adaptive neural networks for ASDEX Upgrade

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cannas, B.; Fanni, A.; Pautasso, G.; Sias, G.

    2011-01-01

    In this paper, an adaptive neural system has been built to predict the risk of disruption at ASDEX Upgrade. The system contains a Self Organizing Map, which determines the 'novelty' of the input of a Multi Layer Perceptron predictor module. The answer of the MLP predictor will be inhibited whenever a novel sample is detected. Furthermore, it is possible that the predictor produces a wrong answer although it is fed with known samples. In this case, a retraining procedure will be performed to update the MLP predictor in an incremental fashion using data coming from both the novelty detection, and from wrong predictions. In particular, a new update is performed whenever a missed alarm is triggered by the predictor. The performance of the adaptive predictor during the more recent experimental campaigns until November 2009 has been evaluated.

  5. An Application of Non-Linear Autoregressive Neural Networks to Predict Energy Consumption in Public Buildings

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Luis Gonzaga Baca Ruiz

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available This paper addresses the problem of energy consumption prediction using neural networks over a set of public buildings. Since energy consumption in the public sector comprises a substantial share of overall consumption, the prediction of such consumption represents a decisive issue in the achievement of energy savings. In our experiments, we use the data provided by an energy consumption monitoring system in a compound of faculties and research centers at the University of Granada, and provide a methodology to predict future energy consumption using nonlinear autoregressive (NAR and the nonlinear autoregressive neural network with exogenous inputs (NARX, respectively. Results reveal that NAR and NARX neural networks are both suitable for performing energy consumption prediction, but also that exogenous data may help to improve the accuracy of predictions.

  6. Application of General Regression Neural Network to the Prediction of LOD Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Xiao-Hong; Wang, Qi-Jie; Zhu, Jian-Jun; Zhang, Hao

    2012-01-01

    Traditional methods for predicting the change in length of day (LOD change) are mainly based on some linear models, such as the least square model and autoregression model, etc. However, the LOD change comprises complicated non-linear factors and the prediction effect of the linear models is always not so ideal. Thus, a kind of non-linear neural network — general regression neural network (GRNN) model is tried to make the prediction of the LOD change and the result is compared with the predicted results obtained by taking advantage of the BP (back propagation) neural network model and other models. The comparison result shows that the application of the GRNN to the prediction of the LOD change is highly effective and feasible.

  7. Prediction of flow boiling curves based on artificial neural network

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wu Junmei; Xi'an Jiaotong Univ., Xi'an; Su Guanghui

    2007-01-01

    The effects of the main system parameters on flow boiling curves were analyzed by using an artificial neural network (ANN) based on the database selected from the 1960s. The input parameters of the ANN are system pressure, mass flow rate, inlet subcooling, wall superheat and steady/transition boiling, and the output parameter is heat flux. The results obtained by the ANN show that the heat flux increases with increasing inlet sub cooling for all heat transfer modes. Mass flow rate has no significant effects on nucleate boiling curves. The transition boiling and film boiling heat fluxes will increase with an increase of mass flow rate. The pressure plays a predominant role and improves heat transfer in whole boiling regions except film boiling. There are slight differences between the steady and the transient boiling curves in all boiling regions except the nucleate one. (authors)

  8. The Prediction of Bandwidth On Need Computer Network Through Artificial Neural Network Method of Backpropagation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ikhthison Mekongga

    2014-02-01

    Full Text Available The need for bandwidth has been increasing recently. This is because the development of internet infrastructure is also increasing so that we need an economic and efficient provider system. This can be achieved through good planning and a proper system. The prediction of the bandwidth consumption is one of the factors that support the planning for an efficient internet service provider system. Bandwidth consumption is predicted using ANN. ANN is an information processing system which has similar characteristics as the biologic al neural network.  ANN  is  chosen  to  predict  the  consumption  of  the  bandwidth  because  ANN  has  good  approachability  to  non-linearity.  The variable used in ANN is the historical load data. A bandwidth consumption information system was built using neural networks  with a backpropagation algorithm to make the use of bandwidth more efficient in the future both in the rental rate of the bandwidth and in the usage of the bandwidth.Keywords: Forecasting, Bandwidth, Backpropagation

  9. Modeling and prediction of Turkey's electricity consumption using Artificial Neural Networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kavaklioglu, Kadir; Ozturk, Harun Kemal; Canyurt, Olcay Ersel; Ceylan, Halim

    2009-01-01

    Artificial Neural Networks are proposed to model and predict electricity consumption of Turkey. Multi layer perceptron with backpropagation training algorithm is used as the neural network topology. Tangent-sigmoid and pure-linear transfer functions are selected in the hidden and output layer processing elements, respectively. These input-output network models are a result of relationships that exist among electricity consumption and several other socioeconomic variables. Electricity consumption is modeled as a function of economic indicators such as population, gross national product, imports and exports. It is also modeled using export-import ratio and time input only. Performance comparison among different models is made based on absolute and percentage mean square error. Electricity consumption of Turkey is predicted until 2027 using data from 1975 to 2006 along with other economic indicators. The results show that electricity consumption can be modeled using Artificial Neural Networks, and the models can be used to predict future electricity consumption. (author)

  10. A Wavelet Neural Network Optimal Control Model for Traffic-Flow Prediction in Intelligent Transport Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Darong; Bai, Xing-Rong

    Based on wavelet transform and neural network theory, a traffic-flow prediction model, which was used in optimal control of Intelligent Traffic system, is constructed. First of all, we have extracted the scale coefficient and wavelet coefficient from the online measured raw data of traffic flow via wavelet transform; Secondly, an Artificial Neural Network model of Traffic-flow Prediction was constructed and trained using the coefficient sequences as inputs and raw data as outputs; Simultaneous, we have designed the running principium of the optimal control system of traffic-flow Forecasting model, the network topological structure and the data transmitted model; Finally, a simulated example has shown that the technique is effectively and exactly. The theoretical results indicated that the wavelet neural network prediction model and algorithms have a broad prospect for practical application.

  11. Predicting product life cycle using fuzzy neural network

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ali Mohammadi

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available One of the most important tasks of science in different fields is to find the relationships among various phenomena in order to predict future. Production and service organizations are not exceptions and they should predict future to survive. Predicting the life cycle of the organization's products is one of the most important prediction cases in an organization. Predicting the product life cycle provides an opportunity to identify the product position and help to get a better insight about competitors. This paper deals with the predictability of the product life cycle with Adaptive Network-Based Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS. The Population of this study was Pegah Fars products and the sample was this company's cheese products. In this regard, this paper attempts to model and predict the product life cycle of cheese products in Pegah Fars Company. In this due, a designed questionnaire was distributed among some experts, distributors and retailers and seven independent variables were selected. In this survey, ANFIS sales forecasting technique was employed and MATLAB software was used for data analysis. The results confirmed ANFIS as a good method to predict the product life cycle.

  12. Classification and prediction of the critical heat flux using fuzzy theory and artificial neural networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Moon, Sang Ki; Chang, Soon Heung

    1994-01-01

    A new method to predict the critical heat flux (CHF) is proposed, based on the fuzzy clustering and artificial neural network. The fuzzy clustering classifies the experimental CHF data into a few data clusters (data groups) according to the data characteristics. After classification of the experimental data, the characteristics of the resulting clusters are discussed with emphasis on the distribution of the experimental conditions and physical mechanism. The CHF data in each group are trained in an artificial neural network to predict the CHF. The artificial neural network adjusts the weight so as to minimize the prediction error within the corresponding cluster. Application of the proposed method to the KAIST CHF data bank shows good prediction capability of the CHF, better than other existing methods. ((orig.))

  13. Prediction of Aerodynamic Coefficient using Genetic Algorithm Optimized Neural Network for Sparse Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rajkumar, T.; Bardina, Jorge; Clancy, Daniel (Technical Monitor)

    2002-01-01

    Wind tunnels use scale models to characterize aerodynamic coefficients, Wind tunnel testing can be slow and costly due to high personnel overhead and intensive power utilization. Although manual curve fitting can be done, it is highly efficient to use a neural network to define the complex relationship between variables. Numerical simulation of complex vehicles on the wide range of conditions required for flight simulation requires static and dynamic data. Static data at low Mach numbers and angles of attack may be obtained with simpler Euler codes. Static data of stalled vehicles where zones of flow separation are usually present at higher angles of attack require Navier-Stokes simulations which are costly due to the large processing time required to attain convergence. Preliminary dynamic data may be obtained with simpler methods based on correlations and vortex methods; however, accurate prediction of the dynamic coefficients requires complex and costly numerical simulations. A reliable and fast method of predicting complex aerodynamic coefficients for flight simulation I'S presented using a neural network. The training data for the neural network are derived from numerical simulations and wind-tunnel experiments. The aerodynamic coefficients are modeled as functions of the flow characteristics and the control surfaces of the vehicle. The basic coefficients of lift, drag and pitching moment are expressed as functions of angles of attack and Mach number. The modeled and training aerodynamic coefficients show good agreement. This method shows excellent potential for rapid development of aerodynamic models for flight simulation. Genetic Algorithms (GA) are used to optimize a previously built Artificial Neural Network (ANN) that reliably predicts aerodynamic coefficients. Results indicate that the GA provided an efficient method of optimizing the ANN model to predict aerodynamic coefficients. The reliability of the ANN using the GA includes prediction of aerodynamic

  14. Artificial Neural Networks: A New Approach for Predicting Application Behavior. AIR 2001 Annual Forum Paper.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gonzalez, Julie M. Byers; DesJardins, Stephen L.

    This paper examines how predictive modeling can be used to study application behavior. A relatively new technique, artificial neural networks (ANNs), was applied to help predict which students were likely to get into a large Research I university. Data were obtained from a university in Iowa. Two cohorts were used, each containing approximately…

  15. A prediction method for the wax deposition rate based on a radial basis function neural network

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ying Xie

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available The radial basis function neural network is a popular supervised learning tool based on machinery learning technology. Its high precision having been proven, the radial basis function neural network has been applied in many areas. The accumulation of deposited materials in the pipeline may lead to the need for increased pumping power, a decreased flow rate or even to the total blockage of the line, with losses of production and capital investment, so research on predicting the wax deposition rate is significant for the safe and economical operation of an oil pipeline. This paper adopts the radial basis function neural network to predict the wax deposition rate by considering four main influencing factors, the pipe wall temperature gradient, pipe wall wax crystal solubility coefficient, pipe wall shear stress and crude oil viscosity, by the gray correlational analysis method. MATLAB software is employed to establish the RBF neural network. Compared with the previous literature, favorable consistency exists between the predicted outcomes and the experimental results, with a relative error of 1.5%. It can be concluded that the prediction method of wax deposition rate based on the RBF neural network is feasible.

  16. Prediction of Clinical Deterioration in Hospitalized Adult Patients with Hematologic Malignancies Using a Neural Network Model.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Scott B Hu

    Full Text Available Clinical deterioration (ICU transfer and cardiac arrest occurs during approximately 5-10% of hospital admissions. Existing prediction models have a high false positive rate, leading to multiple false alarms and alarm fatigue. We used routine vital signs and laboratory values obtained from the electronic medical record (EMR along with a machine learning algorithm called a neural network to develop a prediction model that would increase the predictive accuracy and decrease false alarm rates.Retrospective cohort study.The hematologic malignancy unit in an academic medical center in the United States.Adult patients admitted to the hematologic malignancy unit from 2009 to 2010.None.Vital signs and laboratory values were obtained from the electronic medical record system and then used as predictors (features. A neural network was used to build a model to predict clinical deterioration events (ICU transfer and cardiac arrest. The performance of the neural network model was compared to the VitalPac Early Warning Score (ViEWS. Five hundred sixty five consecutive total admissions were available with 43 admissions resulting in clinical deterioration. Using simulation, the neural network outperformed the ViEWS model with a positive predictive value of 82% compared to 24%, respectively.We developed and tested a neural network-based prediction model for clinical deterioration in patients hospitalized in the hematologic malignancy unit. Our neural network model outperformed an existing model, substantially increasing the positive predictive value, allowing the clinician to be confident in the alarm raised. This system can be readily implemented in a real-time fashion in existing EMR systems.

  17. Application of Artificial Neural Network to Predict the use of Runway at Juanda International Airport

    Science.gov (United States)

    Putra, J. C. P.; Safrilah

    2017-06-01

    Artificial neural network approaches are useful to solve many complicated problems. It solves a number of problems in various areas such as engineering, medicine, business, manufacturing, etc. This paper presents an application of artificial neural network to predict a runway capacity at Juanda International Airport. An artificial neural network model of backpropagation and multi-layer perceptron is adopted to this research to learning process of runway capacity at Juanda International Airport. The results indicate that the training data is successfully recognizing the certain pattern of runway use at Juanda International Airport. Whereas, testing data indicate vice versa. Finally, it can be concluded that the approach of uniformity data and network architecture is the critical part to determine the accuracy of prediction results.

  18. Application of clustering analysis in the prediction of photovoltaic power generation based on neural network

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cheng, K.; Guo, L. M.; Wang, Y. K.; Zafar, M. T.

    2017-11-01

    In order to select effective samples in the large number of data of PV power generation years and improve the accuracy of PV power generation forecasting model, this paper studies the application of clustering analysis in this field and establishes forecasting model based on neural network. Based on three different types of weather on sunny, cloudy and rainy days, this research screens samples of historical data by the clustering analysis method. After screening, it establishes BP neural network prediction models using screened data as training data. Then, compare the six types of photovoltaic power generation prediction models before and after the data screening. Results show that the prediction model combining with clustering analysis and BP neural networks is an effective method to improve the precision of photovoltaic power generation.

  19. PREDICTION OF BULLS’ SLAUGHTER VALUE FROM GROWTH DATA USING ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORK

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Krzysztof ADAMCZYK

    2006-02-01

    Full Text Available The objective of this research was to investigate the usefulness of artifi cial neural network (ANN in the prediction of slaughter value of young crossbred bulls based on growth data. The studies were carried out on 104 bulls fattened from 120 days of life until the weight of 500 kg. The bulls were group fed using mainly farm feeds. After slaughter the carcasses were dissected and meat was subjected to physico-chemical and organoleptic analyses. The obtained data were used for the development of an artifi cial neural network model of slaughter value prediction. It was found that some slaughter value traits (hot carcass, cold half-carcass, neck and round weights, bone content in dissected elements in half-carcass, meat pH, dry-matter and protein contents in meat and meat tenderness and juiciness can be predicted with a considerably high accuracy using the artifi cial neural network.

  20. Neural Network Prediction of Disruptions Caused by Locked Modes on J-TEXT Tokamak

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ding Yonghua; Jin Xuesong; Chen Zhenzhen; Zhuang Ge

    2013-01-01

    Prediction of disruptions caused by locked modes using the Back-Propagation (BP) neural network is completed on J-TEXT tokamak. The network, which is based on the BP neural network, uses Mirnov coils and locked mode coils signals as input data, and outputs a signal including information of prediction of locked mode. The rate of successful prediction of locked modes is more than 90%. For intrinsic locked mode disruptions, the network can give a prewarning signal about 1 ms ahead of the locking-time. For the disruption caused by resonant magnetic perturbation (RMPs) locked modes, the network can give a prewarning signal about 10 ms ahead of the locking-time

  1. Comparison of four Adaboost algorithm based artificial neural networks in wind speed predictions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Liu, Hui; Tian, Hong-qi; Li, Yan-fei; Zhang, Lei

    2015-01-01

    Highlights: • Four hybrid algorithms are proposed for the wind speed decomposition. • Adaboost algorithm is adopted to provide a hybrid training framework. • MLP neural networks are built to do the forecasting computation. • Four important network training algorithms are included in the MLP networks. • All the proposed hybrid algorithms are suitable for the wind speed predictions. - Abstract: The technology of wind speed prediction is important to guarantee the safety of wind power utilization. In this paper, four different hybrid methods are proposed for the high-precision multi-step wind speed predictions based on the Adaboost (Adaptive Boosting) algorithm and the MLP (Multilayer Perceptron) neural networks. In the hybrid Adaboost–MLP forecasting architecture, four important algorithms are adopted for the training and modeling of the MLP neural networks, including GD-ALR-BP algorithm, GDM-ALR-BP algorithm, CG-BP-FR algorithm and BFGS algorithm. The aim of the study is to investigate the promoted forecasting percentages of the MLP neural networks by the Adaboost algorithm’ optimization under various training algorithms. The hybrid models in the performance comparison include Adaboost–GD-ALR-BP–MLP, Adaboost–GDM-ALR-BP–MLP, Adaboost–CG-BP-FR–MLP, Adaboost–BFGS–MLP, GD-ALR-BP–MLP, GDM-ALR-BP–MLP, CG-BP-FR–MLP and BFGS–MLP. Two experimental results show that: (1) the proposed hybrid Adaboost–MLP forecasting architecture is effective for the wind speed predictions; (2) the Adaboost algorithm has promoted the forecasting performance of the MLP neural networks considerably; (3) among the proposed Adaboost–MLP forecasting models, the Adaboost–CG-BP-FR–MLP model has the best performance; and (4) the improved percentages of the MLP neural networks by the Adaboost algorithm decrease step by step with the following sequence of training algorithms as: GD-ALR-BP, GDM-ALR-BP, CG-BP-FR and BFGS

  2. Protein distance constraints predicted by neural networks and probability density functions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lund, Ole; Frimand, Kenneth; Gorodkin, Jan

    1997-01-01

    We predict interatomic C-α distances by two independent data driven methods. The first method uses statistically derived probability distributions of the pairwise distance between two amino acids, whilst the latter method consists of a neural network prediction approach equipped with windows taki...... method based on the predicted distances is presented. A homepage with software, predictions and data related to this paper is available at http://www.cbs.dtu.dk/services/CPHmodels/...

  3. Predicting recurrent aphthous ulceration using genetic algorithms-optimized neural networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Najla S Dar-Odeh

    2010-05-01

    Full Text Available Najla S Dar-Odeh1, Othman M Alsmadi2, Faris Bakri3, Zaer Abu-Hammour2, Asem A Shehabi3, Mahmoud K Al-Omiri1, Shatha M K Abu-Hammad4, Hamzeh Al-Mashni4, Mohammad B Saeed4, Wael Muqbil4, Osama A Abu-Hammad1 1Faculty of Dentistry, 2Faculty of Engineering and Technology, 3Faculty of Medicine, University of Jordan, Amman, Jordan; 4Dental Department, University of Jordan Hospital, Amman, JordanObjective: To construct and optimize a neural network that is capable of predicting the occurrence of recurrent aphthous ulceration (RAU based on a set of appropriate input data.Participants and methods: Artificial neural networks (ANN software employing genetic algorithms to optimize the architecture neural networks was used. Input and output data of 86 participants (predisposing factors and status of the participants with regards to recurrent aphthous ulceration were used to construct and train the neural networks. The optimized neural networks were then tested using untrained data of a further 10 participants.Results: The optimized neural network, which produced the most accurate predictions for the presence or absence of recurrent aphthous ulceration was found to employ: gender, hematological (with or without ferritin and mycological data of the participants, frequency of tooth brushing, and consumption of vegetables and fruits.Conclusions: Factors appearing to be related to recurrent aphthous ulceration and appropriate for use as input data to construct ANNs that predict recurrent aphthous ulceration were found to include the following: gender, hemoglobin, serum vitamin B12, serum ferritin, red cell folate, salivary candidal colony count, frequency of tooth brushing, and the number of fruits or vegetables consumed daily.Keywords: artifical neural networks, recurrent, aphthous ulceration, ulcer

  4. Prediction of ozone tropospheric degradation rate constant of organic compounds by using artificial neural networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fatemi, M.H.

    2006-01-01

    Ozone tropospheric degradation of organic compound is very important in environmental chemistry. The lifetime of organic chemicals in the atmosphere can be calculated from the knowledge of the rate constant of their reaction with free radicals such as OH and NO 3 or O 3 . In the present work, the rate constant for the tropospheric degradation of 137 organic compounds by reaction with ozone, the least widely and successfully modeled degradation process, are predicted by quantitative structure activity relationships modeling based on a variety of theoretical descriptors, which screened and selected by genetic algorithm variable subset selection procedure. These descriptors which can be used as inputs for generated artificial neural networks are; HOMO-LUMO gap, number of double bonds, number of single bonds, maximum net charge on C atom, minimum (>0.1) bond order of C atom and Minimum e-e repulsion of H atom. After generation, optimization and training of artificial neural network, network was used for the prediction of log KO 3 for the validation set. The root mean square error for the neural network calculated log KO 3 for training, prediction and validation set are 0.357, 0.460 and 0.481, respectively, which are smaller than those obtained by multiple linear regressions model (1.217, 0.870 and 0.968, respectively). Results obtained reveal the reliability and good predictivity of neural network model for the prediction of ozone tropospheric degradations rate constant of organic compounds

  5. An improved advertising CTR prediction approach based on the fuzzy deep neural network.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jiang, Zilong; Gao, Shu; Li, Mingjiang

    2018-01-01

    Combining a deep neural network with fuzzy theory, this paper proposes an advertising click-through rate (CTR) prediction approach based on a fuzzy deep neural network (FDNN). In this approach, fuzzy Gaussian-Bernoulli restricted Boltzmann machine (FGBRBM) is first applied to input raw data from advertising datasets. Next, fuzzy restricted Boltzmann machine (FRBM) is used to construct the fuzzy deep belief network (FDBN) with the unsupervised method layer by layer. Finally, fuzzy logistic regression (FLR) is utilized for modeling the CTR. The experimental results show that the proposed FDNN model outperforms several baseline models in terms of both data representation capability and robustness in advertising click log datasets with noise.

  6. The Use of Artificial Neural Networks in Prediction of Congenital CMV Outcome from Sequence Data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ravit Arav-Boger

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available A large number of CMV strains has been reported to circulate in the human population, and the biological significance of these strains is currently an active area of research. The analysis of complex genetic information may be limited using conventional phylogenetic techniques. We constructed artificial neural networks to determine their feasibility in predicting the outcome of congenital CMV disease (defined as presence of CMV symptoms at birth based on two data sets: 54 sequences of CMV gene UL144 obtained from 54 amniotic fluids of women who contracted acute CMV infection during their pregnancy, and 80 sequences of 4 genes (US28, UL144, UL146 and UL147 obtained from urine, saliva or blood of 20 congenitally infected infants that displayed different outcomes at birth. When data from all four genes was used in the 20-infants’ set, the artificial neural network model accurately identified outcome in 90% of cases. While US28 and UL147 had low yield in predicting outcome, UL144 and UL146 predicted outcome in 80% and 85% respectively when used separately. The model identified specific nucleotide positions that were highly relevant to prediction of outcome. The artificial neural network classified genotypes in agreement with classic phylogenetic analysis. We suggest that artificial neural networks can accurately and efficiently analyze sequences obtained from larger cohorts to determine specific outcomes.The ANN training and analysis code is commercially available from Optimal Neural Informatics (Pikesville, MD.

  7. Prediction of two-phase mixture density using artificial neural networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lombardi, C.; Mazzola, A.

    1997-01-01

    In nuclear power plants, the density of boiling mixtures has a significant relevance due to its influence on the neutronic balance, the power distribution and the reactor dynamics. Since the determination of the two-phase mixture density on a purely analytical basis is in fact impractical in many situations of interest, heuristic relationships have been developed based on the parameters describing the two-phase system. However, the best or even a good structure for the correlation cannot be determined in advance, also considering that it is usually desired to represent the experimental data with the most compact equation. A possible alternative to empirical correlations is the use of artificial neural networks, which allow one to model complex systems without requiring the explicit formulation of the relationships existing among the variables. In this work, the neural network methodology was applied to predict the density data of two-phase mixtures up-flowing in adiabatic channels under different experimental conditions. The trained network predicts the density data with a root-mean-square error of 5.33%, being ∼ 93% of the data points predicted within 10%. When compared with those of two conventional well-proven correlations, i.e. the Zuber-Findlay and the CISE correlations, the neural network performances are significantly better. In spite of the good accuracy of the neural network predictions, the 'black-box' characteristic of the neural model does not allow an easy physical interpretation of the knowledge integrated in the network weights. Therefore, the neural network methodology has the advantage of not requiring a formal correlation structure and of giving very accurate results, but at the expense of a loss of model transparency. (author)

  8. Use of Artificial Neural Networks for Prediction of Convective Heat Transfer in Evaporative Units

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Romero-Méndez Ricardo

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Convective heat transfer prediction of evaporative processes is more complicated than the heat transfer prediction of single-phase convective processes. This is due to the fact that physical phenomena involved in evaporative processes are very complex and vary with the vapor quality that increases gradually as more fluid is evaporated. Power-law correlations used for prediction of evaporative convection have proved little accuracy when used in practical cases. In this investigation, neural-network-based models have been used as a tool for prediction of the thermal performance of evaporative units. For this purpose, experimental data were obtained in a facility that includes a counter-flow concentric pipes heat exchanger with R134a refrigerant flowing inside the circular section and temperature controlled warm water moving through the annular section. This work also included the construction of an inverse Rankine refrigeration cycle that was equipped with measurement devices, sensors and a data acquisition system to collect the experimental measurements under different operating conditions. Part of the data were used to train several neural-network configurations. The best neural-network model was then used for prediction purposes and the results obtained were compared with experimental data not used for training purposes. The results obtained in this investigation reveal the convenience of using artificial neural networks as accurate predictive tools for determining convective heat transfer rates of evaporative processes.

  9. Temperature prediction model of asphalt pavement in cold regions based on an improved BP neural network

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Xu, Bo; Dan, Han-Cheng; Li, Liang

    2017-01-01

    Highlights: • Pavement temperature prediction model is presented with improved BP neural network. • Dynamic and static methods are presented to predict pavement temperature. • Pavement temperature can be excellently predicted in next 3 h. - Abstract: Ice cover on pavement threatens traffic safety, and pavement temperature is the main factor used to determine whether the wet pavement is icy or not. In this paper, a temperature prediction model of the pavement in winter is established by introducing an improved Back Propagation (BP) neural network model. Before the application of the BP neural network model, many efforts were made to eliminate chaos and determine the regularity of temperature on the pavement surface (e.g., analyze the regularity of diurnal and monthly variations of pavement temperature). New dynamic and static prediction methods are presented by improving the algorithms to intelligently overcome the prediction inaccuracy at the change point of daily temperature. Furthermore, some scenarios have been compared for different dates and road sections to verify the reliability of the prediction model. According to the analysis results, the daily pavement temperatures can be accurately predicted for the next 3 h from the time of prediction by combining the dynamic and static prediction methods. The presented method in this paper can provide technical references for temperature prediction of the pavement and the development of an early-warning system for icy pavements in cold regions.

  10. Ads' click-through rates predicting based on gated recurrent unit neural networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Qiaohong; Guo, Zixuan; Dong, Wen; Jin, Lingzi

    2018-05-01

    In order to improve the effect of online advertising and to increase the revenue of advertising, the gated recurrent unit neural networks(GRU) model is used as the ads' click through rates(CTR) predicting. Combined with the characteristics of gated unit structure and the unique of time sequence in data, using BPTT algorithm to train the model. Furthermore, by optimizing the step length algorithm of the gated unit recurrent neural networks, making the model reach optimal point better and faster in less iterative rounds. The experiment results show that the model based on the gated recurrent unit neural networks and its optimization of step length algorithm has the better effect on the ads' CTR predicting, which helps advertisers, media and audience achieve a win-win and mutually beneficial situation in Three-Side Game.

  11. Multi-step-prediction of chaotic time series based on co-evolutionary recurrent neural network

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ma Qianli; Zheng Qilun; Peng Hong; Qin Jiangwei; Zhong Tanwei

    2008-01-01

    This paper proposes a co-evolutionary recurrent neural network (CERNN) for the multi-step-prediction of chaotic time series, it estimates the proper parameters of phase space reconstruction and optimizes the structure of recurrent neural networks by co-evolutionary strategy. The searching space was separated into two subspaces and the individuals are trained in a parallel computational procedure. It can dynamically combine the embedding method with the capability of recurrent neural network to incorporate past experience due to internal recurrence. The effectiveness of CERNN is evaluated by using three benchmark chaotic time series data sets: the Lorenz series, Mackey-Glass series and real-world sun spot series. The simulation results show that CERNN improves the performances of multi-step-prediction of chaotic time series

  12. Predicting wettability behavior of fluorosilica coated metal surface using optimum neural network

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taghipour-Gorjikolaie, Mehran; Valipour Motlagh, Naser

    2018-02-01

    The interaction between variables, which are effective on the surface wettability, is very complex to predict the contact angles and sliding angles of liquid drops. In this paper, in order to solve this complexity, artificial neural network was used to develop reliable models for predicting the angles of liquid drops. Experimental data are divided into training data and testing data. By using training data and feed forward structure for the neural network and using particle swarm optimization for training the neural network based models, the optimum models were developed. The obtained results showed that regression index for the proposed models for the contact angles and sliding angles are 0.9874 and 0.9920, respectively. As it can be seen, these values are close to unit and it means the reliable performance of the models. Also, it can be inferred from the results that the proposed model have more reliable performance than multi-layer perceptron and radial basis function based models.

  13. Generation and prediction of time series by a neural network

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Eisenstein, E.; Kanter, I.; Kessler, D.A.; Kinzel, W.

    1995-01-01

    Generation and prediction of time series are analyzed for the case of a bit generator: a perceptron where in each time step the input units are shifted one bit to the right with the state of the leftmost input unit set equal to the output unit in the previous time step. The long-time dynamical behavior of the bit generator consists of cycles whose typical period scales polynomially with the size of the network and whose spatial structure is periodic with a typical finite wavelength. The generalization error on a cycle is zero for a finite training set, and global dynamical behaviors can also be learned in a finite time. Hence, a projection of a rule can be learned in a finite time

  14. Prediction of dissolved oxygen in the Mediterranean Sea along Gaza, Palestine - an artificial neural network approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zaqoot, Hossam Adel; Ansari, Abdul Khalique; Unar, Mukhtiar Ali; Khan, Shaukat Hyat

    2009-01-01

    Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) are flexible tools which are being used increasingly to predict and forecast water resources variables. The human activities in areas surrounding enclosed and semi-enclosed seas such as the Mediterranean Sea always produce in the long term a strong environmental impact in the form of coastal and marine degradation. The presence of dissolved oxygen is essential for the survival of most organisms in the water bodies. This paper is concerned with the use of ANNs - Multilayer Perceptron (MLP) and Radial Basis Function neural networks for predicting the next fortnight's dissolved oxygen concentrations in the Mediterranean Sea water along Gaza. MLP and Radial Basis Function (RBF) neural networks are trained and developed with reference to five important oceanographic variables including water temperature, wind velocity, turbidity, pH and conductivity. These variables are considered as inputs of the network. The data sets used in this study consist of four years and collected from nine locations along Gaza coast. The network performance has been tested with different data sets and the results show satisfactory performance. Prediction results prove that neural network approach has good adaptability and extensive applicability for modelling the dissolved oxygen in the Mediterranean Sea along Gaza. We hope that the established model will help in assisting the local authorities in developing plans and policies to reduce the pollution along Gaza coastal waters to acceptable levels.

  15. Development of Artificial Neural Network Model for Diesel Fuel Properties Prediction using Vibrational Spectroscopy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bolanča, Tomislav; Marinović, Slavica; Ukić, Sime; Jukić, Ante; Rukavina, Vinko

    2012-06-01

    This paper describes development of artificial neural network models which can be used to correlate and predict diesel fuel properties from several FTIR-ATR absorbances and Raman intensities as input variables. Multilayer feed forward and radial basis function neural networks have been used to rapid and simultaneous prediction of cetane number, cetane index, density, viscosity, distillation temperatures at 10% (T10), 50% (T50) and 90% (T90) recovery, contents of total aromatics and polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons of commercial diesel fuels. In this study two-phase training procedures for multilayer feed forward networks were applied. While first phase training algorithm was constantly the back propagation one, two second phase training algorithms were varied and compared, namely: conjugate gradient and quasi Newton. In case of radial basis function network, radial layer was trained using K-means radial assignment algorithm and three different radial spread algorithms: explicit, isotropic and K-nearest neighbour. The number of hidden layer neurons and experimental data points used for the training set have been optimized for both neural networks in order to insure good predictive ability by reducing unnecessary experimental work. This work shows that developed artificial neural network models can determine main properties of diesel fuels simultaneously based on a single and fast IR or Raman measurement.

  16. APPLICATION OF ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORKS FOR PREDICTION OF AIR POLLUTION LEVELS IN ENVIRONMENTAL MONITORING

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Małgorzata Pawul

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available Recently, a lot of attention was paid to the improvement of methods which are used to air quality forecasting. Artificial neural networks can be applied to model these problems. Their advantage is that they can solve the problem in the conditions of incomplete information, without the knowledge of the analytical relationship between the input and output data. In this paper we applied artificial neural networks to predict the PM 10 concentrations as factors determining the occurrence of smog phenomena. To create these networks we used meteorological data and concentrations of PM 10. The data were recorded in 2014 and 2015 at three measuring stations operating in Krakow under the State Environmental Monitoring. The best results were obtained by three-layer perceptron with back-propagation algorithm. The neural networks received a good fit in all cases.

  17. Prediction of Aerodynamic Coefficients for Wind Tunnel Data using a Genetic Algorithm Optimized Neural Network

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rajkumar, T.; Aragon, Cecilia; Bardina, Jorge; Britten, Roy

    2002-01-01

    A fast, reliable way of predicting aerodynamic coefficients is produced using a neural network optimized by a genetic algorithm. Basic aerodynamic coefficients (e.g. lift, drag, pitching moment) are modelled as functions of angle of attack and Mach number. The neural network is first trained on a relatively rich set of data from wind tunnel tests of numerical simulations to learn an overall model. Most of the aerodynamic parameters can be well-fitted using polynomial functions. A new set of data, which can be relatively sparse, is then supplied to the network to produce a new model consistent with the previous model and the new data. Because the new model interpolates realistically between the sparse test data points, it is suitable for use in piloted simulations. The genetic algorithm is used to choose a neural network architecture to give best results, avoiding over-and under-fitting of the test data.

  18. Neural Networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Schwindling Jerome

    2010-04-01

    Full Text Available This course presents an overview of the concepts of the neural networks and their aplication in the framework of High energy physics analyses. After a brief introduction on the concept of neural networks, the concept is explained in the frame of neuro-biology, introducing the concept of multi-layer perceptron, learning and their use as data classifer. The concept is then presented in a second part using in more details the mathematical approach focussing on typical use cases faced in particle physics. Finally, the last part presents the best way to use such statistical tools in view of event classifers, putting the emphasis on the setup of the multi-layer perceptron. The full article (15 p. corresponding to this lecture is written in french and is provided in the proceedings of the book SOS 2008.

  19. Validation of artificial neural network models for predicting biochemical markers associated with male infertility.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vickram, A S; Kamini, A Rao; Das, Raja; Pathy, M Ramesh; Parameswari, R; Archana, K; Sridharan, T B

    2016-08-01

    Seminal fluid is the secretion from many glands comprised of several organic and inorganic compounds including free amino acids, proteins, fructose, glucosidase, zinc, and other scavenging elements like Mg(2+), Ca(2+), K(+), and Na(+). Therefore, in the view of development of novel approaches and proper diagnosis to male infertility, overall understanding of the biochemical and molecular composition and its role in regulation of sperm quality is highly desirable. Perhaps this can be achieved through artificial intelligence. This study was aimed to elucidate and predict various biochemical markers present in human seminal plasma with three different neural network models. A total of 177 semen samples were collected for this research (both fertile and infertile samples) and immediately processed to prepare a semen analysis report, based on the protocol of the World Health Organization (WHO [2010]). The semen samples were then categorized into oligoasthenospermia (n=35), asthenospermia (n=35), azoospermia (n=22), normospermia (n=34), oligospermia (n=34), and control (n=17). The major biochemical parameters like total protein content, fructose, glucosidase, and zinc content were elucidated by standard protocols. All the biochemical markers were predicted by using three different artificial neural network (ANN) models with semen parameters as inputs. Of the three models, the back propagation neural network model (BPNN) yielded the best results with mean absolute error 0.025, -0.080, 0.166, and -0.057 for protein, fructose, glucosidase, and zinc, respectively. This suggests that BPNN can be used to predict biochemical parameters for the proper diagnosis of male infertility in assisted reproductive technology (ART) centres. AAS: absorption spectroscopy; AI: artificial intelligence; ANN: artificial neural networks; ART: assisted reproductive technology; BPNN: back propagation neural network model; DT: decision tress; MLP: multilayer perceptron; PESA: percutaneous

  20. Damage Level Prediction of Reinforced Concrete Building Based on Earthquake Time History Using Artificial Neural Network

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Suryanita Reni

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The strong motion earthquake could cause the building damage in case of the building not considered in the earthquake design of the building. The study aims to predict the damage-level of building due to earthquake using Artificial Neural Networks method. The building model is a reinforced concrete building with ten floors and height between floors is 3.6 m. The model building received a load of the earthquake based on nine earthquake time history records. Each time history scaled to 0,5g, 0,75g, and 1,0g. The Artificial Neural Networks are designed in 4 architectural models using the MATLAB program. Model 1 used the displacement, velocity, and acceleration as input and Model 2 used the displacement only as the input. Model 3 used the velocity as input, and Model 4 used the acceleration just as input. The output of the Neural Networks is the damage level of the building with the category of Safe (1, Immediate Occupancy (2, Life Safety (3 or in a condition of Collapse Prevention (4. According to the results, Neural Network models have the prediction rate of the damage level between 85%-95%. Therefore, one of the solutions for analyzing the structural responses and the damage level promptly and efficiently when the earthquake occurred is by using Artificial Neural Network

  1. PREDICTION OF DEMAND FOR PRIMARY BOND OFFERINGS USING ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORKS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michal Tkac

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: Primary bond markets represent an interesting investment opportunity not only for banks, insurance companies, and other institutional investors, but also for individuals looking for capital gains. Since offered securities vary in terms of their rating, industrial classification, coupon, or maturity, demand of buyers for particular offerings often overcomes issued volume and price of given bond on secondary market consequently rises. Investors might be regarded as consumers purchasing required service according to their specific preferences at desired price. This paper aims at analysis of demand for bonds on primary market using artificial neural networks.Design/methodology: We design a multilayered feedforward neural network trained by Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm in order to estimate demand for individual bonds based on parameters of particular offerings. Outcomes obtained by artificial neural network are compared with conventional econometric methods.Findings: Our results indicate that artificial neural network significantly outperformed standard econometric techniques and on examined sample of primary bond offerings achieved considerably better performance in terms of prediction accuracy and mean squared error.Originality: We show that proposed neural network is able to successfully predict demand for primary obligation offerings based on their specifications. Moreover, we identify relevant parameters of issues which are able to considerably affect total demand for given security.  Our findings might not only help investors to detect marketable securities, but also enable issuing entities to increase demand for their bonds in order to decrease their offering price. 

  2. Artificial neural network application for predicting soil distribution coefficient of nickel

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Falamaki, Amin

    2013-01-01

    The distribution (or partition) coefficient (K d ) is an applicable parameter for modeling contaminant and radionuclide transport as well as risk analysis. Selection of this parameter may cause significant error in predicting the impacts of contaminant migration or site-remediation options. In this regards, various models were presented to predict K d values for different contaminants specially heavy metals and radionuclides. In this study, artificial neural network (ANN) is used to present simplified model for predicting K d of nickel. The main objective is to develop a more accurate model with a minimal number of parameters, which can be determined experimentally or select by review of different studies. In addition, the effects of training as well as the type of the network are considered. The K d values of Ni is strongly dependent on pH of the soil and mathematical relationships were presented between pH and K d of nickel recently. In this study, the same database of these presented models was used to verify that neural network may be more useful tools for predicting of K d . Two different types of ANN, multilayer perceptron and redial basis function, were used to investigate the effect of the network geometry on the results. In addition, each network was trained by 80 and 90% of the data and tested for 20 and 10% of the rest data. Then the results of the networks compared with the results of the mathematical models. Although the networks trained by 80 and 90% of the data the results show that all the networks predict with higher accuracy relative to mathematical models which were derived by 100% of data. More training of a network increases the accuracy of the network. Multilayer perceptron network used in this study predicts better than redial basis function network. - Highlights: ► Simplified models for predicting K d of nickel presented using artificial neural networks. ► Multilayer perceptron and redial basis function used to predict K d of nickel in

  3. Comparison of classical statistical methods and artificial neural network in traffic noise prediction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nedic, Vladimir; Despotovic, Danijela; Cvetanovic, Slobodan; Despotovic, Milan; Babic, Sasa

    2014-01-01

    Traffic is the main source of noise in urban environments and significantly affects human mental and physical health and labor productivity. Therefore it is very important to model the noise produced by various vehicles. Techniques for traffic noise prediction are mainly based on regression analysis, which generally is not good enough to describe the trends of noise. In this paper the application of artificial neural networks (ANNs) for the prediction of traffic noise is presented. As input variables of the neural network, the proposed structure of the traffic flow and the average speed of the traffic flow are chosen. The output variable of the network is the equivalent noise level in the given time period L eq . Based on these parameters, the network is modeled, trained and tested through a comparative analysis of the calculated values and measured levels of traffic noise using the originally developed user friendly software package. It is shown that the artificial neural networks can be a useful tool for the prediction of noise with sufficient accuracy. In addition, the measured values were also used to calculate equivalent noise level by means of classical methods, and comparative analysis is given. The results clearly show that ANN approach is superior in traffic noise level prediction to any other statistical method. - Highlights: • We proposed an ANN model for prediction of traffic noise. • We developed originally designed user friendly software package. • The results are compared with classical statistical methods. • The results are much better predictive capabilities of ANN model

  4. Comparison of classical statistical methods and artificial neural network in traffic noise prediction

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nedic, Vladimir, E-mail: vnedic@kg.ac.rs [Faculty of Philology and Arts, University of Kragujevac, Jovana Cvijića bb, 34000 Kragujevac (Serbia); Despotovic, Danijela, E-mail: ddespotovic@kg.ac.rs [Faculty of Economics, University of Kragujevac, Djure Pucara Starog 3, 34000 Kragujevac (Serbia); Cvetanovic, Slobodan, E-mail: slobodan.cvetanovic@eknfak.ni.ac.rs [Faculty of Economics, University of Niš, Trg kralja Aleksandra Ujedinitelja, 18000 Niš (Serbia); Despotovic, Milan, E-mail: mdespotovic@kg.ac.rs [Faculty of Engineering, University of Kragujevac, Sestre Janjic 6, 34000 Kragujevac (Serbia); Babic, Sasa, E-mail: babicsf@yahoo.com [College of Applied Mechanical Engineering, Trstenik (Serbia)

    2014-11-15

    Traffic is the main source of noise in urban environments and significantly affects human mental and physical health and labor productivity. Therefore it is very important to model the noise produced by various vehicles. Techniques for traffic noise prediction are mainly based on regression analysis, which generally is not good enough to describe the trends of noise. In this paper the application of artificial neural networks (ANNs) for the prediction of traffic noise is presented. As input variables of the neural network, the proposed structure of the traffic flow and the average speed of the traffic flow are chosen. The output variable of the network is the equivalent noise level in the given time period L{sub eq}. Based on these parameters, the network is modeled, trained and tested through a comparative analysis of the calculated values and measured levels of traffic noise using the originally developed user friendly software package. It is shown that the artificial neural networks can be a useful tool for the prediction of noise with sufficient accuracy. In addition, the measured values were also used to calculate equivalent noise level by means of classical methods, and comparative analysis is given. The results clearly show that ANN approach is superior in traffic noise level prediction to any other statistical method. - Highlights: • We proposed an ANN model for prediction of traffic noise. • We developed originally designed user friendly software package. • The results are compared with classical statistical methods. • The results are much better predictive capabilities of ANN model.

  5. Prediction of the location and type of beta-turns in proteins using neural networks.

    OpenAIRE

    Shepherd, A. J.; Gorse, D.; Thornton, J. M.

    1999-01-01

    A neural network has been used to predict both the location and the type of beta-turns in a set of 300 nonhomologous protein domains. A substantial improvement in prediction accuracy compared with previous methods has been achieved by incorporating secondary structure information in the input data. The total percentage of residues correctly classified as beta-turn or not-beta-turn is around 75% with predicted secondary structure information. More significantly, the method gives a Matthews cor...

  6. Prediction of Prospective Mathematics Teachers' Academic Success in Entering Graduate Education by Using Back-Propagation Neural Network

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bahadir, Elif

    2016-01-01

    The purpose of this study is to examine a neural network based approach to predict achievement in graduate education for Elementary Mathematics prospective teachers. With the help of this study, it can be possible to make an effective prediction regarding the students' achievement in graduate education with Artificial Neural Networks (ANN). Two…

  7. Prediction of Full-Scale Propulsion Power using Artificial Neural Networks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedersen, Benjamin Pjedsted; Larsen, Jan

    2009-01-01

    Full scale measurements of the propulsion power, ship speed, wind speed and direction, sea and air temperature from four different loading conditions, together with hind cast data of wind and sea properties; and noon report data has been used to train an Artificial Neural Network for prediction...

  8. Application of radial basis function neural network to predict soil sorption partition coefficient using topological descriptors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sabour, Mohammad Reza; Moftakhari Anasori Movahed, Saman

    2017-02-01

    The soil sorption partition coefficient logK oc is an indispensable parameter that can be used in assessing the environmental risk of organic chemicals. In order to predict soil sorption partition coefficient for different and even unknown compounds in a fast and accurate manner, a radial basis function neural network (RBFNN) model was developed. Eight topological descriptors of 800 organic compounds were used as inputs of the model. These 800 organic compounds were chosen from a large and very diverse data set. Generalized Regression Neural Network (GRNN) was utilized as the function in this neural network model due to its capability to adapt very quickly. Hence, it can be used to predict logK oc for new chemicals, as well. Out of total data set, 560 organic compounds were used for training and 240 to test efficiency of the model. The obtained results indicate that the model performance is very well. The correlation coefficients (R2) for training and test sets were 0.995 and 0.933, respectively. The root-mean square errors (RMSE) were 0.2321 for training set and 0.413 for test set. As the results for both training and test set are extremely satisfactory, the proposed neural network model can be employed not only to predict logK oc of known compounds, but also to be adaptive for prediction of this value precisely for new products that enter the market each year. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  9. Modelling for Understanding AND for Prediction/Classification--The Power of Neural Networks in Research

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cascallar, Eduardo; Musso, Mariel; Kyndt, Eva; Dochy, Filip

    2014-01-01

    Two articles, Edelsbrunner and, Schneider (2013), and Nokelainen and Silander (2014) comment on Musso, Kyndt, Cascallar, and Dochy (2013). Several relevant issues are raised and some important clarifications are made in response to both commentaries. Predictive systems based on artificial neural networks continue to be the focus of current…

  10. An overview of the numerical and neural network accosts of ocean wave prediction

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Mandal, S.; Prabaharan, N.

    .8 1.2 1.6 Avg. Measured wave height (m) 0.0 0.4 0.8 1.2 1.6 Fo re ca ste d a vg . w av e h eig ht (m ) COPEDEC VI, 2003, Colombo, Sri Lanka 8 5. CONCLUSIONS The use of neural network for wave prediction will have future application...

  11. Artificial Neural Network Approach to Predict Biodiesel Production in Supercritical tert-Butyl Methyl Ether

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Obie Farobie

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available In this study, for the first time artificial neural network was used to predict biodiesel yield in supercritical tert-butyl methyl ether (MTBE. The experimental data of biodiesel yield conducted by varying four input factors (i.e. temperature, pressure, oil-to-MTBE molar ratio, and reaction time were used to elucidate artificial neural network model in order to predict biodiesel yield. The main goal of this study was to assess how accurately this artificial neural network model to predict biodiesel yield conducted under supercritical MTBE condition. The result shows that artificial neural network is a powerful tool for modeling and predicting biodiesel yield conducted under supercritical MTBE condition that was proven by a high value of coefficient of determination (R of 0.9969, 0.9899, and 0.9658 for training, validation, and testing, respectively. Using this approach, the highest biodiesel yield was determined of 0.93 mol/mol (corresponding to the actual biodiesel yield of 0.94 mol/mol that was achieved at 400 °C, under the reactor pressure of 10 MPa, oil-to-MTBE molar ratio of 1:40 within 15 min of reaction time.

  12. Predicting The Type Of Pregnancy Using Flexible Discriminate Analysis And Artificial Neural Networks: A Comparison Study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hooman, A.; Mohammadzadeh, M.

    2008-01-01

    Some medical and epidemiological surveys have been designed to predict a nominal response variable with several levels. With regard to the type of pregnancy there are four possible states: wanted, unwanted by wife, unwanted by husband and unwanted by couple. In this paper, we have predicted the type of pregnancy, as well as the factors influencing it using three different models and comparing them. Regarding the type of pregnancy with several levels, we developed a multinomial logistic regression, a neural network and a flexible discrimination based on the data and compared their results using tow statistical indices: Surface under curve (ROC) and kappa coefficient. Based on these tow indices, flexible discrimination proved to be a better fit for prediction on data in comparison to other methods. When the relations among variables are complex, one can use flexible discrimination instead of multinomial logistic regression and neural network to predict the nominal response variables with several levels in order to gain more accurate predictions

  13. A comparison between wavelet based static and dynamic neural network approaches for runoff prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shoaib, Muhammad; Shamseldin, Asaad Y.; Melville, Bruce W.; Khan, Mudasser Muneer

    2016-04-01

    In order to predict runoff accurately from a rainfall event, the multilayer perceptron type of neural network models are commonly used in hydrology. Furthermore, the wavelet coupled multilayer perceptron neural network (MLPNN) models has also been found superior relative to the simple neural network models which are not coupled with wavelet. However, the MLPNN models are considered as static and memory less networks and lack the ability to examine the temporal dimension of data. Recurrent neural network models, on the other hand, have the ability to learn from the preceding conditions of the system and hence considered as dynamic models. This study for the first time explores the potential of wavelet coupled time lagged recurrent neural network (TLRNN) models for runoff prediction using rainfall data. The Discrete Wavelet Transformation (DWT) is employed in this study to decompose the input rainfall data using six of the most commonly used wavelet functions. The performance of the simple and the wavelet coupled static MLPNN models is compared with their counterpart dynamic TLRNN models. The study found that the dynamic wavelet coupled TLRNN models can be considered as alternative to the static wavelet MLPNN models. The study also investigated the effect of memory depth on the performance of static and dynamic neural network models. The memory depth refers to how much past information (lagged data) is required as it is not known a priori. The db8 wavelet function is found to yield the best results with the static MLPNN models and with the TLRNN models having small memory depths. The performance of the wavelet coupled TLRNN models with large memory depths is found insensitive to the selection of the wavelet function as all wavelet functions have similar performance.

  14. Comparing various artificial neural network types for water temperature prediction in rivers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Piotrowski, Adam P.; Napiorkowski, Maciej J.; Napiorkowski, Jaroslaw J.; Osuch, Marzena

    2015-10-01

    A number of methods have been proposed for the prediction of streamwater temperature based on various meteorological and hydrological variables. The present study shows a comparison of few types of data-driven neural networks (multi-layer perceptron, product-units, adaptive-network-based fuzzy inference systems and wavelet neural networks) and nearest neighbour approach for short time streamwater temperature predictions in two natural catchments (mountainous and lowland) located in temperate climate zone, with snowy winters and hot summers. To allow wide applicability of such models, autoregressive inputs are not used and only easily available measurements are considered. Each neural network type is calibrated independently 100 times and the mean, median and standard deviation of the results are used for the comparison. Finally, the ensemble aggregation approach is tested. The results show that simple and popular multi-layer perceptron neural networks are in most cases not outperformed by more complex and advanced models. The choice of neural network is dependent on the way the models are compared. This may be a warning for anyone who wish to promote own models, that their superiority should be verified in different ways. The best results are obtained when mean, maximum and minimum daily air temperatures from the previous days are used as inputs, together with the current runoff and declination of the Sun from two recent days. The ensemble aggregation approach allows reducing the mean square error up to several percent, depending on the case, and noticeably diminishes differences in modelling performance obtained by various neural network types.

  15. Training algorithms evaluation for artificial neural network to temporal prediction of photovoltaic generation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Arantes Monteiro, Raul Vitor; Caixeta Guimarães, Geraldo; Rocio Castillo, Madeleine; Matheus Moura, Fabrício Augusto; Tamashiro, Márcio Augusto

    2016-01-01

    Current energy policies are encouraging the connection of power generation based on low-polluting technologies, mainly those using renewable sources, to distribution networks. Hence, it becomes increasingly important to understand technical challenges, facing high penetration of PV systems at the grid, especially considering the effects of intermittence of this source on the power quality, reliability and stability of the electric distribution system. This fact can affect the distribution networks on which they are attached causing overvoltage, undervoltage and frequency oscillations. In order to predict these disturbs, artificial neural networks are used. This article aims to analyze 3 training algorithms used in artificial neural networks for temporal prediction of the generated active power thru photovoltaic panels. As a result it was concluded that the algorithm with the best performance among the 3 analyzed was the Levenberg-Marquadrt.

  16. Artificial neural networks for prediction of quality in resistance spot welding

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Martin, O.; Lopez, M.; Martin, F.

    2006-01-01

    An artificial neural network is proposed as a tool for predicting from three parameters (weld time, current intensity and electrode sort) if the quality of a resistance spot weld reaches a certain level or not. The quality id determined by cross tension testing. The fact of reaching this quality level or not is the desired output that goes with each input of the artificial neural network during its supervised learning. The available data set is made up of input/desired output pairs and is split randomly into a training subset (to update synaptic weight values) and a validation subset (to avoid overfitting phenomenon by means of cross validation). (Author) 44 refs

  17. Prediction of Force Measurements of a Microbend Sensor Based on an Artificial Neural Network

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kemal Fidanboylu

    2009-09-01

    Full Text Available Artificial neural network (ANN based prediction of the response of a microbend fiber optic sensor is presented. To the best of our knowledge no similar work has been previously reported in the literature. Parallel corrugated plates with three deformation cycles, 6 mm thickness of the spacer material and 16 mm mechanical periodicity between deformations were used in the microbend sensor. Multilayer Perceptron (MLP with different training algorithms, Radial Basis Function (RBF network and General Regression Neural Network (GRNN are used as ANN models in this work. All of these models can predict the sensor responses with considerable errors. RBF has the best performance with the smallest mean square error (MSE values of training and test results. Among the MLP algorithms and GRNN the Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm has good results. These models successfully predict the sensor responses, hence ANNs can be used as useful tool in the design of more robust fiber optic sensors.

  18. predicting water levels at kainji dam using artificial neural networks

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    2013-03-01

    Mar 1, 2013 ... Apart from insufficient number of power generation plants, existing ones are ... ture and/or functional aspects of biological neural net-. Nigerian Journal of ... Their model used the radiosonde-based 700-hPa wind direction and ...

  19. Artificial neural network modeling of jatropha oil fueled diesel engine for emission predictions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ganapathy Thirunavukkarasu

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper deals with artificial neural network modeling of diesel engine fueled with jatropha oil to predict the unburned hydrocarbons, smoke, and NOx emissions. The experimental data from the literature have been used as the data base for the proposed neural network model development. For training the networks, the injection timing, injector opening pressure, plunger diameter, and engine load are used as the input layer. The outputs are hydrocarbons, smoke, and NOx emissions. The feed forward back propagation learning algorithms with two hidden layers are used in the networks. For each output a different network is developed with required topology. The artificial neural network models for hydrocarbons, smoke, and NOx emissions gave R2 values of 0.9976, 0.9976, and 0.9984 and mean percent errors of smaller than 2.7603, 4.9524, and 3.1136, respectively, for training data sets, while the R2 values of 0.9904, 0.9904, and 0.9942, and mean percent errors of smaller than 6.5557, 6.1072, and 4.4682, respectively, for testing data sets. The best linear fit of regression to the artificial neural network models of hydrocarbons, smoke, and NOx emissions gave the correlation coefficient values of 0.98, 0.995, and 0.997, respectively.

  20. Analysis of the uranium price predicted to 24 months, implementing neural networks and the Monte Carlo method like predictive tools

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Esquivel E, J.; Ramirez S, J. R.; Palacios H, J. C.

    2011-11-01

    The present work shows predicted prices of the uranium, using a neural network. The importance of predicting financial indexes of an energy resource, in this case, allows establishing budgetary measures, as well as the costs of the resource to medium period. The uranium is part of the main energy generating fuels and as such, its price rebounds in the financial analyses, due to this is appealed to predictive methods to obtain an outline referent to the financial behaviour that will have in a certain time. In this study, two methodologies are used for the prediction of the uranium price: the Monte Carlo method and the neural networks. These methods allow predicting the indexes of monthly costs, for a two years period, starting from the second bimonthly of 2011. For the prediction the uranium costs are used, registered from the year 2005. (Author)

  1. Exploring the Combination of Dempster-Shafer Theory and Neural Network for Predicting Trust and Distrust

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xin Wang

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available In social media, trust and distrust among users are important factors in helping users make decisions, dissect information, and receive recommendations. However, the sparsity and imbalance of social relations bring great difficulties and challenges in predicting trust and distrust. Meanwhile, there are numerous inducing factors to determine trust and distrust relations. The relationship among inducing factors may be dependency, independence, and conflicting. Dempster-Shafer theory and neural network are effective and efficient strategies to deal with these difficulties and challenges. In this paper, we study trust and distrust prediction based on the combination of Dempster-Shafer theory and neural network. We firstly analyze the inducing factors about trust and distrust, namely, homophily, status theory, and emotion tendency. Then, we quantify inducing factors of trust and distrust, take these features as evidences, and construct evidence prototype as input nodes of multilayer neural network. Finally, we propose a framework of predicting trust and distrust which uses multilayer neural network to model the implementing process of Dempster-Shafer theory in different hidden layers, aiming to overcome the disadvantage of Dempster-Shafer theory without optimization method. Experimental results on a real-world dataset demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed framework.

  2. The Satellite Clock Bias Prediction Method Based on Takagi-Sugeno Fuzzy Neural Network

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cai, C. L.; Yu, H. G.; Wei, Z. C.; Pan, J. D.

    2017-05-01

    The continuous improvement of the prediction accuracy of Satellite Clock Bias (SCB) is the key problem of precision navigation. In order to improve the precision of SCB prediction and better reflect the change characteristics of SCB, this paper proposes an SCB prediction method based on the Takagi-Sugeno fuzzy neural network. Firstly, the SCB values are pre-treated based on their characteristics. Then, an accurate Takagi-Sugeno fuzzy neural network model is established based on the preprocessed data to predict SCB. This paper uses the precise SCB data with different sampling intervals provided by IGS (International Global Navigation Satellite System Service) to realize the short-time prediction experiment, and the results are compared with the ARIMA (Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average) model, GM(1,1) model, and the quadratic polynomial model. The results show that the Takagi-Sugeno fuzzy neural network model is feasible and effective for the SCB short-time prediction experiment, and performs well for different types of clocks. The prediction results for the proposed method are better than the conventional methods obviously.

  3. Predicting dihedral angle probability distributions for protein coil residues from primary sequence using neural networks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Helles, Glennie; Fonseca, Rasmus

    2009-01-01

    residue in the input-window. The trained neural network shows a significant improvement (4-68%) in predicting the most probable bin (covering a 30°×30° area of the dihedral angle space) for all amino acids in the data set compared to first order statistics. An accuracy comparable to that of secondary...... seem to have a significant influence on the dihedral angles adopted by the individual amino acids in coil segments. In this work we attempt to predict a probability distribution of these dihedral angles based on the flanking residues. While attempts to predict dihedral angles of coil segments have been...... done previously, none have, to our knowledge, presented comparable results for the probability distribution of dihedral angles. Results: In this paper we develop an artificial neural network that uses an input-window of amino acids to predict a dihedral angle probability distribution for the middle...

  4. Predictive Behavior of a Computational Foot/Ankle Model through Artificial Neural Networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ruchi D. Chande

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Computational models are useful tools to study the biomechanics of human joints. Their predictive performance is heavily dependent on bony anatomy and soft tissue properties. Imaging data provides anatomical requirements while approximate tissue properties are implemented from literature data, when available. We sought to improve the predictive capability of a computational foot/ankle model by optimizing its ligament stiffness inputs using feedforward and radial basis function neural networks. While the former demonstrated better performance than the latter per mean square error, both networks provided reasonable stiffness predictions for implementation into the computational model.

  5. Predictive Behavior of a Computational Foot/Ankle Model through Artificial Neural Networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chande, Ruchi D; Hargraves, Rosalyn Hobson; Ortiz-Robinson, Norma; Wayne, Jennifer S

    2017-01-01

    Computational models are useful tools to study the biomechanics of human joints. Their predictive performance is heavily dependent on bony anatomy and soft tissue properties. Imaging data provides anatomical requirements while approximate tissue properties are implemented from literature data, when available. We sought to improve the predictive capability of a computational foot/ankle model by optimizing its ligament stiffness inputs using feedforward and radial basis function neural networks. While the former demonstrated better performance than the latter per mean square error, both networks provided reasonable stiffness predictions for implementation into the computational model.

  6. Predictive business process monitoring with LSTM neural networks

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Tax, N.; Verenich, I.; La Rosa, M.; Dumas, M.; Pohl, Klaus; Dubois, Eric

    2017-01-01

    Predictive business process monitoring methods exploit logs of completed cases of a process in order to make predictions about running cases thereof. Existing methods in this space are tailor-made for specific prediction tasks. Moreover, their relative accuracy is highly sensitive to the dataset at

  7. Hybrid neural network for density limit disruption prediction and avoidance on J-TEXT tokamak

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zheng, W.; Hu, F. R.; Zhang, M.; Chen, Z. Y.; Zhao, X. Q.; Wang, X. L.; Shi, P.; Zhang, X. L.; Zhang, X. Q.; Zhou, Y. N.; Wei, Y. N.; Pan, Y.; J-TEXT team

    2018-05-01

    Increasing the plasma density is one of the key methods in achieving an efficient fusion reaction. High-density operation is one of the hot topics in tokamak plasmas. Density limit disruptions remain an important issue for safe operation. An effective density limit disruption prediction and avoidance system is the key to avoid density limit disruptions for long pulse steady state operations. An artificial neural network has been developed for the prediction of density limit disruptions on the J-TEXT tokamak. The neural network has been improved from a simple multi-layer design to a hybrid two-stage structure. The first stage is a custom network which uses time series diagnostics as inputs to predict plasma density, and the second stage is a three-layer feedforward neural network to predict the probability of density limit disruptions. It is found that hybrid neural network structure, combined with radiation profile information as an input can significantly improve the prediction performance, especially the average warning time ({{T}warn} ). In particular, the {{T}warn} is eight times better than that in previous work (Wang et al 2016 Plasma Phys. Control. Fusion 58 055014) (from 5 ms to 40 ms). The success rate for density limit disruptive shots is above 90%, while, the false alarm rate for other shots is below 10%. Based on the density limit disruption prediction system and the real-time density feedback control system, the on-line density limit disruption avoidance system has been implemented on the J-TEXT tokamak.

  8. Prediction of energy demands using neural network with model identification by global optimization

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yokoyama, Ryohei; Wakui, Tetsuya; Satake, Ryoichi [Department of Mechanical Engineering, Osaka Prefecture University, 1-1 Gakuen-cho, Naka-ku, Sakai, Osaka 599-8531 (Japan)

    2009-02-15

    To operate energy supply plants properly from the viewpoints of stable energy supply, and energy and cost savings, it is important to predict energy demands accurately as basic conditions. Several methods of predicting energy demands have been proposed, and one of them is to use neural networks. Although local optimization methods such as gradient ones have conventionally been adopted in the back propagation procedure to identify the values of model parameters, they have the significant drawback that they can derive only local optimal solutions. In this paper, a global optimization method called ''Modal Trimming Method'' proposed for non-linear programming problems is adopted to identify the values of model parameters. In addition, the trend and periodic change are first removed from time series data on energy demand, and the converted data is used as the main input to a neural network. Furthermore, predicted values of air temperature and relative humidity are considered as additional inputs to the neural network, and their effect on the prediction of energy demand is investigated. This approach is applied to the prediction of the cooling demand in a building used for a bench mark test of a variety of prediction methods, and its validity and effectiveness are clarified. (author)

  9. Learning Traffic as Images: A Deep Convolutional Neural Network for Large-Scale Transportation Network Speed Prediction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ma, Xiaolei; Dai, Zhuang; He, Zhengbing; Ma, Jihui; Wang, Yong; Wang, Yunpeng

    2017-04-10

    This paper proposes a convolutional neural network (CNN)-based method that learns traffic as images and predicts large-scale, network-wide traffic speed with a high accuracy. Spatiotemporal traffic dynamics are converted to images describing the time and space relations of traffic flow via a two-dimensional time-space matrix. A CNN is applied to the image following two consecutive steps: abstract traffic feature extraction and network-wide traffic speed prediction. The effectiveness of the proposed method is evaluated by taking two real-world transportation networks, the second ring road and north-east transportation network in Beijing, as examples, and comparing the method with four prevailing algorithms, namely, ordinary least squares, k-nearest neighbors, artificial neural network, and random forest, and three deep learning architectures, namely, stacked autoencoder, recurrent neural network, and long-short-term memory network. The results show that the proposed method outperforms other algorithms by an average accuracy improvement of 42.91% within an acceptable execution time. The CNN can train the model in a reasonable time and, thus, is suitable for large-scale transportation networks.

  10. Artificial neural networks based predictive model for worker ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    ... meet highly dynamic production conditions in terms of demand, processing times, ... network has been formulated on worker assignment for VCMS under dual ... to generate simulated datasets that drive the training process of proposed ANN ...

  11. Short-term PV/T module temperature prediction based on PCA-RBF neural network

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Jiyong; Zhao, Zhendong; Li, Yisheng; Xiao, Jing; Tang, Yunfeng

    2018-02-01

    Aiming at the non-linearity and large inertia of temperature control in PV/T system, short-term temperature prediction of PV/T module is proposed, to make the PV/T system controller run forward according to the short-term forecasting situation to optimize control effect. Based on the analysis of the correlation between PV/T module temperature and meteorological factors, and the temperature of adjacent time series, the principal component analysis (PCA) method is used to pre-process the original input sample data. Combined with the RBF neural network theory, the simulation results show that the PCA method makes the prediction accuracy of the network model higher and the generalization performance stronger than that of the RBF neural network without the main component extraction.

  12. Exchange rate prediction with multilayer perceptron neural network using gold price as external factor

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohammad Fathian

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, the problem of predicting the exchange rate time series in the foreign exchange rate market is going to be solved using a time-delayed multilayer perceptron neural network with gold price as external factor. The input for the learning phase of the artificial neural network are the exchange rate data of the last five days plus the gold price in two different currencies of the exchange rate as the external factor for helping the artificial neural network improving its forecast accuracy. The five-day delay has been chosen because of the weekly cyclic behavior of the exchange rate time series with the consideration of two holidays in a week. The result of forecasts are then compared with using the multilayer peceptron neural network without gold price external factor by two most important evaluation techniques in the literature of exchange rate prediction. For the experimental analysis phase, the data of three important exchange rates of EUR/USD, GBP/USD, and USD/JPY are used.

  13. ChemNet: A Transferable and Generalizable Deep Neural Network for Small-Molecule Property Prediction

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Goh, Garrett B.; Siegel, Charles M.; Vishnu, Abhinav; Hodas, Nathan O.

    2017-12-08

    With access to large datasets, deep neural networks through representation learning have been able to identify patterns from raw data, achieving human-level accuracy in image and speech recognition tasks. However, in chemistry, availability of large standardized and labelled datasets is scarce, and with a multitude of chemical properties of interest, chemical data is inherently small and fragmented. In this work, we explore transfer learning techniques in conjunction with the existing Chemception CNN model, to create a transferable and generalizable deep neural network for small-molecule property prediction. Our latest model, ChemNet learns in a semi-supervised manner from inexpensive labels computed from the ChEMBL database. When fine-tuned to the Tox21, HIV and FreeSolv dataset, which are 3 separate chemical tasks that ChemNet was not originally trained on, we demonstrate that ChemNet exceeds the performance of existing Chemception models, contemporary MLP models that trains on molecular fingerprints, and it matches the performance of the ConvGraph algorithm, the current state-of-the-art. Furthermore, as ChemNet has been pre-trained on a large diverse chemical database, it can be used as a universal “plug-and-play” deep neural network, which accelerates the deployment of deep neural networks for the prediction of novel small-molecule chemical properties.

  14. Nonlinear Model Predictive Control Based on a Self-Organizing Recurrent Neural Network.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Han, Hong-Gui; Zhang, Lu; Hou, Ying; Qiao, Jun-Fei

    2016-02-01

    A nonlinear model predictive control (NMPC) scheme is developed in this paper based on a self-organizing recurrent radial basis function (SR-RBF) neural network, whose structure and parameters are adjusted concurrently in the training process. The proposed SR-RBF neural network is represented in a general nonlinear form for predicting the future dynamic behaviors of nonlinear systems. To improve the modeling accuracy, a spiking-based growing and pruning algorithm and an adaptive learning algorithm are developed to tune the structure and parameters of the SR-RBF neural network, respectively. Meanwhile, for the control problem, an improved gradient method is utilized for the solution of the optimization problem in NMPC. The stability of the resulting control system is proved based on the Lyapunov stability theory. Finally, the proposed SR-RBF neural network-based NMPC (SR-RBF-NMPC) is used to control the dissolved oxygen (DO) concentration in a wastewater treatment process (WWTP). Comparisons with other existing methods demonstrate that the SR-RBF-NMPC can achieve a considerably better model fitting for WWTP and a better control performance for DO concentration.

  15. Identification and prediction of dynamic systems using an interactively recurrent self-evolving fuzzy neural network.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, Yang-Yin; Chang, Jyh-Yeong; Lin, Chin-Teng

    2013-02-01

    This paper presents a novel recurrent fuzzy neural network, called an interactively recurrent self-evolving fuzzy neural network (IRSFNN), for prediction and identification of dynamic systems. The recurrent structure in an IRSFNN is formed as an external loops and internal feedback by feeding the rule firing strength of each rule to others rules and itself. The consequent part in the IRSFNN is composed of a Takagi-Sugeno-Kang (TSK) or functional-link-based type. The proposed IRSFNN employs a functional link neural network (FLNN) to the consequent part of fuzzy rules for promoting the mapping ability. Unlike a TSK-type fuzzy neural network, the FLNN in the consequent part is a nonlinear function of input variables. An IRSFNNs learning starts with an empty rule base and all of the rules are generated and learned online through a simultaneous structure and parameter learning. An on-line clustering algorithm is effective in generating fuzzy rules. The consequent update parameters are derived by a variable-dimensional Kalman filter algorithm. The premise and recurrent parameters are learned through a gradient descent algorithm. We test the IRSFNN for the prediction and identification of dynamic plants and compare it to other well-known recurrent FNNs. The proposed model obtains enhanced performance results.

  16. Prediction of strain values in reinforcements and concrete of a RC frame using neural networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vafaei, Mohammadreza; Alih, Sophia C.; Shad, Hossein; Falah, Ali; Halim, Nur Hajarul Falahi Abdul

    2018-03-01

    The level of strain in structural elements is an important indicator for the presence of damage and its intensity. Considering this fact, often structural health monitoring systems employ strain gauges to measure strains in critical elements. However, because of their sensitivity to the magnetic fields, inadequate long-term durability especially in harsh environments, difficulties in installation on existing structures, and maintenance cost, installation of strain gauges is not always possible for all structural components. Therefore, a reliable method that can accurately estimate strain values in critical structural elements is necessary for damage identification. In this study, a full-scale test was conducted on a planar RC frame to investigate the capability of neural networks for predicting the strain values. Two neural networks each of which having a single hidden layer was trained to relate the measured rotations and vertical displacements of the frame to the strain values measured at different locations of the frame. Results of trained neural networks indicated that they accurately estimated the strain values both in reinforcements and concrete. In addition, the trained neural networks were capable of predicting strains for the unseen input data set.

  17. Lifetime prediction for organic coating under alternating hydrostatic pressure by artificial neural network

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tian, Wenliang; Meng, Fandi; Liu, Li; Li, Ying; Wang, Fuhui

    2017-01-01

    A concept for prediction of organic coatings, based on the alternating hydrostatic pressure (AHP) accelerated tests, has been presented. An AHP accelerated test with different pressure values has been employed to evaluate coating degradation. And a back-propagation artificial neural network (BP-ANN) has been established to predict the service property and the service lifetime of coatings. The pressure value (P), immersion time (t) and service property (impedance modulus |Z|) are utilized as the parameters of the network. The average accuracies of the predicted service property and immersion time by the established network are 98.6% and 84.8%, respectively. The combination of accelerated test and prediction method by BP-ANN is promising to evaluate and predict coating property used in deep sea. PMID:28094340

  18. Prediction of biodiesel ignition delay in a diesel engine using artificial neural networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Piloto-Rodríguez, Ramón; Sánchez-Borroto, Yisel

    2017-01-01

    Ignition delay is one of the most important parameters of the combustion process and have a strong influence in exhaust emissions and engines performance. In the present work, the results of the mathematical modeling of ignition delay through artificial neural networks are shown. The modeling starts from input values that cover thermodynamic variables, engines parameters and biodiesel properties. The model obtained is only useful for biodiesel samples and several neural network algorithms were applied in order to predict the ignition delay. From its correlation coefficient, prediction capability and lowest absolute error, the best model was selected. Among other network’s input parameters, the cetane number was taken into account, also previously predicted by the use of ANN. (author)

  19. Precision Obtained Using an Artificial Neural Network for Predicting the Material Removal Rate in Ultrasonic Machining

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gaoyan Zhong

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available The present study proposes a back propagation artificial neural network (BPANN to provide improved precision for predicting the material removal rate (MRR in ultrasonic machining. The BPANN benefits from the advantage of artificial neural networks (ANNs in dealing with complex input-output relationships without explicit mathematical functions. In our previous study, a conventional linear regression model and improved nonlinear regression model were established for modelling the MRR in ultrasonic machining to reflect the influence of machining parameters on process response. In the present work, we quantitatively compare the prediction precision obtained by the previously proposed regression models and the presently proposed BPANN model. The results of detailed analyses indicate that the BPANN model provided the highest prediction precision of the three models considered. The present work makes a positive contribution to expanding the applications of ANNs and can be considered as a guide for modelling complex problems of general machining.

  20. Protein backbone and sidechain torsion angles predicted from NMR chemical shifts using artificial neural networks

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Shen Yang; Bax, Ad, E-mail: bax@nih.gov [National Institutes of Health, Laboratory of Chemical Physics, National Institute of Diabetes and Digestive and Kidney Diseases (United States)

    2013-07-15

    A new program, TALOS-N, is introduced for predicting protein backbone torsion angles from NMR chemical shifts. The program relies far more extensively on the use of trained artificial neural networks than its predecessor, TALOS+. Validation on an independent set of proteins indicates that backbone torsion angles can be predicted for a larger, {>=}90 % fraction of the residues, with an error rate smaller than ca 3.5 %, using an acceptance criterion that is nearly two-fold tighter than that used previously, and a root mean square difference between predicted and crystallographically observed ({phi}, {psi}) torsion angles of ca 12 Masculine-Ordinal-Indicator . TALOS-N also reports sidechain {chi}{sup 1} rotameric states for about 50 % of the residues, and a consistency with reference structures of 89 %. The program includes a neural network trained to identify secondary structure from residue sequence and chemical shifts.

  1. Predictive Modeling of Mechanical Properties of Welded Joints Based on Dynamic Fuzzy RBF Neural Network

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    ZHANG Yongzhi

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available A dynamic fuzzy RBF neural network model was built to predict the mechanical properties of welded joints, and the purpose of the model was to overcome the shortcomings of static neural networks including structural identification, dynamic sample training and learning algorithm. The structure and parameters of the model are no longer head of default, dynamic adaptive adjustment in the training, suitable for dynamic sample data for learning, learning algorithm introduces hierarchical learning and fuzzy rule pruning strategy, to accelerate the training speed of model and make the model more compact. Simulation of the model was carried out by using three kinds of thickness and different process TC4 titanium alloy TIG welding test data. The results show that the model has higher prediction accuracy, which is suitable for predicting the mechanical properties of welded joints, and has opened up a new way for the on-line control of the welding process.

  2. Data Mining on Romanian Stock Market Using Neural Networks for Price Prediction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Magdalena Daniela NEMES

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Predicting future prices by using time series forecasting models has become a relevant trading strategy for most stock market players. Intuition and speculation are no longer reliable as many new trading strategies based on artificial intelligence emerge. Data mining represents a good source of information, as it ensures data processing in a convenient manner. Neural networks are considered useful prediction models when designing forecasting strategies. In this paper we present a series of neural networks designed for stock exchange rates forecasting applied on three Romanian stocks traded on the Bucharest Stock Exchange (BSE. A multistep ahead strategy was used in order to predict short-time price fluctuations. Later, the findings of our study can be integrated with an intelligent multi-agent system model which uses data mining and data stream processing techniques for helping users in the decision making process of buying or selling stocks.

  3. Wind speed prediction using statistical regression and neural network

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Prediction of wind speed in the atmospheric boundary layer is important for wind energy assess- ment,satellite launching and aviation,etc.There are a few techniques available for wind speed prediction,which require a minimum number of input parameters.Four different statistical techniques,viz.,curve fitting,Auto Regressive ...

  4. Usage of neural network to predict aluminium oxide layer thickness.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Michal, Peter; Vagaská, Alena; Gombár, Miroslav; Kmec, Ján; Spišák, Emil; Kučerka, Daniel

    2015-01-01

    This paper shows an influence of chemical composition of used electrolyte, such as amount of sulphuric acid in electrolyte, amount of aluminium cations in electrolyte and amount of oxalic acid in electrolyte, and operating parameters of process of anodic oxidation of aluminium such as the temperature of electrolyte, anodizing time, and voltage applied during anodizing process. The paper shows the influence of those parameters on the resulting thickness of aluminium oxide layer. The impact of these variables is shown by using central composite design of experiment for six factors (amount of sulphuric acid, amount of oxalic acid, amount of aluminium cations, electrolyte temperature, anodizing time, and applied voltage) and by usage of the cubic neural unit with Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm during the results evaluation. The paper also deals with current densities of 1 A · dm(-2) and 3 A · dm(-2) for creating aluminium oxide layer.

  5. Usage of Neural Network to Predict Aluminium Oxide Layer Thickness

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Peter Michal

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper shows an influence of chemical composition of used electrolyte, such as amount of sulphuric acid in electrolyte, amount of aluminium cations in electrolyte and amount of oxalic acid in electrolyte, and operating parameters of process of anodic oxidation of aluminium such as the temperature of electrolyte, anodizing time, and voltage applied during anodizing process. The paper shows the influence of those parameters on the resulting thickness of aluminium oxide layer. The impact of these variables is shown by using central composite design of experiment for six factors (amount of sulphuric acid, amount of oxalic acid, amount of aluminium cations, electrolyte temperature, anodizing time, and applied voltage and by usage of the cubic neural unit with Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm during the results evaluation. The paper also deals with current densities of 1 A·dm−2 and 3 A·dm−2 for creating aluminium oxide layer.

  6. Precursors predicted by artificial neural networks for mass balance calculations: Quantifying hydrothermal alteration in volcanic rocks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trépanier, Sylvain; Mathieu, Lucie; Daigneault, Réal; Faure, Stéphane

    2016-04-01

    This study proposes an artificial neural networks-based method for predicting the unaltered (precursor) chemical compositions of hydrothermally altered volcanic rock. The method aims at predicting precursor's major components contents (SiO2, FeOT, MgO, CaO, Na2O, and K2O). The prediction is based on ratios of elements generally immobile during alteration processes; i.e. Zr, TiO2, Al2O3, Y, Nb, Th, and Cr, which are provided as inputs to the neural networks. Multi-layer perceptron neural networks were trained on a large dataset of least-altered volcanic rock samples that document a wide range of volcanic rock types, tectonic settings and ages. The precursors thus predicted are then used to perform mass balance calculations. Various statistics were calculated to validate the predictions of precursors' major components, which indicate that, overall, the predictions are precise and accurate. For example, rank-based correlation coefficients were calculated to compare predicted and analysed values from a least-altered test dataset that had not been used to train the networks. Coefficients over 0.87 were obtained for all components, except for Na2O (0.77), indicating that predictions for alkali might be less performant. Also, predictions are performant for most volcanic rock compositions, except for ultra-K rocks. The proposed method provides an easy and rapid solution to the often difficult task of determining appropriate volcanic precursor compositions to rocks modified by hydrothermal alteration. It is intended for large volcanic rock databases and is most useful, for example, to mineral exploration performed in complex or poorly known volcanic settings. The method is implemented as a simple C++ console program.

  7. Using recurrent neural networks to predict colorectal cancer among patients

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Amirkhan, Ryan; Hoogendoorn, Mark; Numans, Mattijs E.; Moons, Leon

    2018-01-01

    Development of predictive models from Electronic Medical Records (EMRs) is a far from trivial task. Especially the temporal nature of health records is an aspect that is often ignored yet of utmost importance. Additionally, data is extremely sparse. Previous research has shown that the

  8. Rolling Force Prediction in Heavy Plate Rolling Based on Uniform Differential Neural Network

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fei Zhang

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Accurate prediction of the rolling force is critical to assuring the quality of the final product in steel manufacturing. Exit thickness of plate for each pass is calculated from roll gap, mill spring, and predicted roll force. Ideal pass scheduling is dependent on a precise prediction of the roll force in each pass. This paper will introduce a concept that allows obtaining the material model parameters directly from the rolling process on an industrial scale by the uniform differential neural network. On the basis of the characteristics that the uniform distribution can fully characterize the solution space and enhance the diversity of the population, uniformity research on differential evolution operator is made to get improved crossover with uniform distribution. When its original function is transferred with a transfer function, the uniform differential evolution algorithms can quickly solve complex optimization problems. Neural network structure and weights threshold are optimized by uniform differential evolution algorithm, and a uniform differential neural network is formed to improve rolling force prediction accuracy in process control system.

  9. PREDICTING THE EFFECTIVENESS OF WEB INFORMATION SYSTEMS USING NEURAL NETWORKS MODELING: FRAMEWORK & EMPIRICAL TESTING

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dr. Kamal Mohammed Alhendawi

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available The information systems (IS assessment studies have still used the commonly traditional tools such as questionnaires in evaluating the dependent variables and specially effectiveness of systems. Artificial neural networks have been recently accepted as an effective alternative tool for modeling the complicated systems and widely used for forecasting. A very few is known about the employment of Artificial Neural Network (ANN in the prediction IS effectiveness. For this reason, this study is considered as one of the fewest studies to investigate the efficiency and capability of using ANN for forecasting the user perceptions towards IS effectiveness where MATLAB is utilized for building and training the neural network model. A dataset of 175 subjects collected from international organization are utilized for ANN learning where each subject consists of 6 features (5 quality factors as inputs and one Boolean output. A percentage of 75% o subjects are used in the training phase. The results indicate an evidence on the ANN models has a reasonable accuracy in forecasting the IS effectiveness. For prediction, ANN with PURELIN (ANNP and ANN with TANSIG (ANNTS transfer functions are used. It is found that both two models have a reasonable prediction, however, the accuracy of ANNTS model is better than ANNP model (88.6% and 70.4% respectively. As the study proposes a new model for predicting IS dependent variables, it could save the considerably high cost that might be spent in sample data collection in the quantitative studies in the fields science, management, education, arts and others.

  10. Experiment and Artificial Neural Network Prediction of Thermal Conductivity and Viscosity for Alumina-Water Nanofluids.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Ningbo; Li, Zhiming

    2017-05-19

    To effectively predict the thermal conductivity and viscosity of alumina (Al₂O₃)-water nanofluids, an artificial neural network (ANN) approach was investigated in the present study. Firstly, using a two-step method, four Al₂O₃-water nanofluids were prepared respectively by dispersing different volume fractions (1.31%, 2.72%, 4.25%, and 5.92%) of nanoparticles with the average diameter of 30 nm. On this basis, the thermal conductivity and viscosity of the above nanofluids were analyzed experimentally under various temperatures ranging from 296 to 313 K. Then a radial basis function (RBF) neural network was constructed to predict the thermal conductivity and viscosity of Al₂O₃-water nanofluids as a function of nanoparticle volume fraction and temperature. The experimental results showed that both nanoparticle volume fraction and temperature could enhance the thermal conductivity of Al₂O₃-water nanofluids. However, the viscosity only depended strongly on Al₂O₃ nanoparticle volume fraction and was increased slightly by changing temperature. In addition, the comparative analysis revealed that the RBF neural network had an excellent ability to predict the thermal conductivity and viscosity of Al₂O₃-water nanofluids with the mean absolute percent errors of 0.5177% and 0.5618%, respectively. This demonstrated that the ANN provided an effective way to predict the thermophysical properties of nanofluids with limited experimental data.

  11. Artificial neural networks and neuro-fuzzy inference systems as virtual sensors for hydrogen safety prediction

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Karri, Vishy; Ho, Tien [School of Engineering, University of Tasmania, GPO Box 252-65, Hobart, Tasmania 7001 (Australia); Madsen, Ole [Department of Production, Aalborg University, Fibigerstraede 16, DK-9220 Aalborg (Denmark)

    2008-06-15

    Hydrogen is increasingly investigated as an alternative fuel to petroleum products in running internal combustion engines and as powering remote area power systems using generators. The safety issues related to hydrogen gas are further exasperated by expensive instrumentation required to measure the percentage of explosive limits, flow rates and production pressure. This paper investigates the use of model based virtual sensors (rather than expensive physical sensors) in connection with hydrogen production with a Hogen 20 electrolyzer system. The virtual sensors are used to predict relevant hydrogen safety parameters, such as the percentage of lower explosive limit, hydrogen pressure and hydrogen flow rate as a function of different input conditions of power supplied (voltage and current), the feed of de-ionized water and Hogen 20 electrolyzer system parameters. The virtual sensors are developed by means of the application of various Artificial Intelligent techniques. To train and appraise the neural network models as virtual sensors, the Hogen 20 electrolyzer is instrumented with necessary sensors to gather experimental data which together with MATLAB neural networks toolbox and tailor made adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference systems (ANFIS) were used as predictive tools to estimate hydrogen safety parameters. It was shown that using the neural networks hydrogen safety parameters were predicted to less than 3% of percentage average root mean square error. The most accurate prediction was achieved by using ANFIS. (author)

  12. Prediction of Protein Thermostability by an Efficient Neural Network Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jalal Rezaeenour

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: Manipulation of protein stability is important for understanding the principles that govern protein thermostability, both in basic research and industrial applications. Various data mining techniques exist for prediction of thermostable proteins. Furthermore, ANN methods have attracted significant attention for prediction of thermostability, because they constitute an appropriate approach to mapping the non-linear input-output relationships and massive parallel computing. Method: An Extreme Learning Machine (ELM was applied to estimate thermal behavior of 1289 proteins. In the proposed algorithm, the parameters of ELM were optimized using a Genetic Algorithm (GA, which tuned a set of input variables, hidden layer biases, and input weights, to and enhance the prediction performance. The method was executed on a set of amino acids, yielding a total of 613 protein features. A number of feature selection algorithms were used to build subsets of the features. A total of 1289 protein samples and 613 protein features were calculated from UniProt database to understand features contributing to the enzymes’ thermostability and find out the main features that influence this valuable characteristic. Results:At the primary structure level, Gln, Glu and polar were the features that mostly contributed to protein thermostability. At the secondary structure level, Helix_S, Coil, and charged_Coil were the most important features affecting protein thermostability. These results suggest that the thermostability of proteins is mainly associated with primary structural features of the protein. According to the results, the influence of primary structure on the thermostabilty of a protein was more important than that of the secondary structure. It is shown that prediction accuracy of ELM (mean square error can improve dramatically using GA with error rates RMSE=0.004 and MAPE=0.1003. Conclusion: The proposed approach for forecasting problem

  13. Hybrid Clustering-GWO-NARX neural network technique in predicting stock price

    Science.gov (United States)

    Das, Debashish; Safa Sadiq, Ali; Mirjalili, Seyedali; Noraziah, A.

    2017-09-01

    Prediction of stock price is one of the most challenging tasks due to nonlinear nature of the stock data. Though numerous attempts have been made to predict the stock price by applying various techniques, yet the predicted price is not always accurate and even the error rate is high to some extent. Consequently, this paper endeavours to determine an efficient stock prediction strategy by implementing a combinatorial method of Grey Wolf Optimizer (GWO), Clustering and Non Linear Autoregressive Exogenous (NARX) Technique. The study uses stock data from prominent stock market i.e. New York Stock Exchange (NYSE), NASDAQ and emerging stock market i.e. Malaysian Stock Market (Bursa Malaysia), Dhaka Stock Exchange (DSE). It applies K-means clustering algorithm to determine the most promising cluster, then MGWO is used to determine the classification rate and finally the stock price is predicted by applying NARX neural network algorithm. The prediction performance gained through experimentation is compared and assessed to guide the investors in making investment decision. The result through this technique is indeed promising as it has shown almost precise prediction and improved error rate. We have applied the hybrid Clustering-GWO-NARX neural network technique in predicting stock price. We intend to work with the effect of various factors in stock price movement and selection of parameters. We will further investigate the influence of company news either positive or negative in stock price movement. We would be also interested to predict the Stock indices.

  14. Prediction of slope stability using artificial neural network (case study: Noabad, Mazandaran, Iran)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Choobbasti, A J; Farrokhzad, F; Barari, A

    2009-01-01

    Investigations of failures of soil masses are subjects touching both geology and engineering. These investigations call the joint efforts of engineering geologists and geotechnical engineers. Geotechnical engineers have to pay particular attention to geology, ground water, and shear strength of soils in assessing slope stability. Artificial neural networks (ANNs) are very sophisticated modeling techniques, capable of modeling extremely complex functions. In particular, neural networks are nonlinear. In this research, with respect to the above advantages, ANN systems consisting of multilayer perceptron networks are developed to predict slope stability in a specified location, based on the available site investigation data from Noabad, Mazandaran, Iran. Several important parameters, including total stress, effective stress, angle of slope, coefficient of cohesion, internal friction angle, and horizontal coefficient of earthquake, were used as the input parameters, while the slope stability was the output parameter. The results are compared with the classical methods of limit equilibrium to check the ANN model's validity. (author)

  15. Artificial neural networks in prediction of mechanical behavior of concrete at high temperature

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mukherjee, A.; Nag Biswas, S.

    1997-01-01

    The behavior of concrete structures that are exposed to extreme thermo-mechanical loading is an issue of great importance in nuclear engineering. The mechanical behavior of concrete at high temperature is non-linear. The properties that regulate its response are highly temperature dependent and extremely complex. In addition, the constituent materials, e.g. aggregates, influence the response significantly. Attempts have been made to trace the stress-strain curve through mathematical models and rheological models. However, it has been difficult to include all the contributing factors in the mathematical model. This paper examines a new programming paradigm, artificial neural networks, for the problem. Implementing a feedforward network and backpropagation algorithm the stress-strain relationship of the material is captured. The neural networks for the prediction of uniaxial behavior of concrete at high temperature has been presented here. The results of the present investigation are very encouraging. (orig.)

  16. Prediction of paddy drying kinetics: A comparative study between mathematical and artificial neural network modelling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Beigi Mohsen

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The present study aimed at investigation of deep bed drying of rough rice kernels at various thin layers at different drying air temperatures and flow rates. A comparative study was performed between mathematical thin layer models and artificial neural networks to estimate the drying curves of rough rice. The suitability of nine mathematical models in simulating the drying kinetics was examined and the Midilli model was determined as the best approach for describing drying curves. Different feed forward-back propagation artificial neural networks were examined to predict the moisture content variations of the grains. The ANN with 4-18-18-1 topology, transfer function of hyperbolic tangent sigmoid and a Levenberg-Marquardt back propagation training algorithm provided the best results with the maximum correlation coefficient and the minimum mean square error values. Furthermore, it was revealed that ANN modeling had better performance in prediction of drying curves with lower root mean square error values.

  17. Fluvial facies reservoir productivity prediction method based on principal component analysis and artificial neural network

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pengyu Gao

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available It is difficult to forecast the well productivity because of the complexity of vertical and horizontal developments in fluvial facies reservoir. This paper proposes a method based on Principal Component Analysis and Artificial Neural Network to predict well productivity of fluvial facies reservoir. The method summarizes the statistical reservoir factors and engineering factors that affect the well productivity, extracts information by applying the principal component analysis method and approximates arbitrary functions of the neural network to realize an accurate and efficient prediction on the fluvial facies reservoir well productivity. This method provides an effective way for forecasting the productivity of fluvial facies reservoir which is affected by multi-factors and complex mechanism. The study result shows that this method is a practical, effective, accurate and indirect productivity forecast method and is suitable for field application.

  18. Predicting musically induced emotions from physiological inputs: linear and neural network models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Russo, Frank A; Vempala, Naresh N; Sandstrom, Gillian M

    2013-01-01

    Listening to music often leads to physiological responses. Do these physiological responses contain sufficient information to infer emotion induced in the listener? The current study explores this question by attempting to predict judgments of "felt" emotion from physiological responses alone using linear and neural network models. We measured five channels of peripheral physiology from 20 participants-heart rate (HR), respiration, galvanic skin response, and activity in corrugator supercilii and zygomaticus major facial muscles. Using valence and arousal (VA) dimensions, participants rated their felt emotion after listening to each of 12 classical music excerpts. After extracting features from the five channels, we examined their correlation with VA ratings, and then performed multiple linear regression to see if a linear relationship between the physiological responses could account for the ratings. Although linear models predicted a significant amount of variance in arousal ratings, they were unable to do so with valence ratings. We then used a neural network to provide a non-linear account of the ratings. The network was trained on the mean ratings of eight of the 12 excerpts and tested on the remainder. Performance of the neural network confirms that physiological responses alone can be used to predict musically induced emotion. The non-linear model derived from the neural network was more accurate than linear models derived from multiple linear regression, particularly along the valence dimension. A secondary analysis allowed us to quantify the relative contributions of inputs to the non-linear model. The study represents a novel approach to understanding the complex relationship between physiological responses and musically induced emotion.

  19. Predicting musically induced emotions from physiological inputs: Linear and neural network models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Frank A. Russo

    2013-08-01

    Full Text Available Listening to music often leads to physiological responses. Do these physiological responses contain sufficient information to infer emotion induced in the listener? The current study explores this question by attempting to predict judgments of 'felt' emotion from physiological responses alone using linear and neural network models. We measured five channels of peripheral physiology from 20 participants – heart rate, respiration, galvanic skin response, and activity in corrugator supercilii and zygomaticus major facial muscles. Using valence and arousal (VA dimensions, participants rated their felt emotion after listening to each of 12 classical music excerpts. After extracting features from the five channels, we examined their correlation with VA ratings, and then performed multiple linear regression to see if a linear relationship between the physiological responses could account for the ratings. Although linear models predicted a significant amount of variance in arousal ratings, they were unable to do so with valence ratings. We then used a neural network to provide a nonlinear account of the ratings. The network was trained on the mean ratings of eight of the 12 excerpts and tested on the remainder. Performance of the neural network confirms that physiological responses alone can be used to predict musically induced emotion. The nonlinear model derived from the neural network was more accurate than linear models derived from multiple linear regression, particularly along the valence dimension. A secondary analysis allowed us to quantify the relative contributions of inputs to the nonlinear model. The study represents a novel approach to understanding the complex relationship between physiological responses and musically induced emotion.

  20. ProLanGO: Protein Function Prediction Using Neural Machine Translation Based on a Recurrent Neural Network.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cao, Renzhi; Freitas, Colton; Chan, Leong; Sun, Miao; Jiang, Haiqing; Chen, Zhangxin

    2017-10-17

    With the development of next generation sequencing techniques, it is fast and cheap to determine protein sequences but relatively slow and expensive to extract useful information from protein sequences because of limitations of traditional biological experimental techniques. Protein function prediction has been a long standing challenge to fill the gap between the huge amount of protein sequences and the known function. In this paper, we propose a novel method to convert the protein function problem into a language translation problem by the new proposed protein sequence language "ProLan" to the protein function language "GOLan", and build a neural machine translation model based on recurrent neural networks to translate "ProLan" language to "GOLan" language. We blindly tested our method by attending the latest third Critical Assessment of Function Annotation (CAFA 3) in 2016, and also evaluate the performance of our methods on selected proteins whose function was released after CAFA competition. The good performance on the training and testing datasets demonstrates that our new proposed method is a promising direction for protein function prediction. In summary, we first time propose a method which converts the protein function prediction problem to a language translation problem and applies a neural machine translation model for protein function prediction.

  1. Prediction of Weld Penetration in FCAW of HSLA steel using Artificial Neural Networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Asl, Y. Dadgar; Mostafa, N. B.; Panahizadeh, V. R.; Seyedkashi, S. M. H.

    2011-01-01

    Flux-cored arc welding (FCAW) is a semiautomatic or automatic arc welding process that requires a continuously-fed consumable tubular electrode containing a flux. The main FCAW process parameters affecting the depth of penetration are welding current, arc voltage, nozzle-to-work distance, torch angle and welding speed. Shallow depth of penetration may contribute to failure of a welded structure since penetration determines the stress-carrying capacity of a welded joint. To avoid such occurrences; the welding process parameters influencing the weld penetration must be properly selected to obtain an acceptable weld penetration and hence a high quality joint. Artificial neural networks (ANN), also called neural networks (NN), are computational models used to express complex non-linear relationships between input and output data. In this paper, artificial neural network (ANN) method is used to predict the effects of welding current, arc voltage, nozzle-to-work distance, torch angle and welding speed on weld penetration depth in gas shielded FCAW of a grade of high strength low alloy steel. 32 experimental runs were carried out using the bead-on-plate welding technique. Weld penetrations were measured and on the basis of these 32 sets of experimental data, a feed-forward back-propagation neural network was created. 28 sets of the experiments were used as the training data and the remaining 4 sets were used for the testing phase of the network. The ANN has one hidden layer with eight neurons and is trained after 840 iterations. The comparison between the experimental results and ANN results showed that the trained network could predict the effects of the FCAW process parameters on weld penetration adequately.

  2. How Do Neural Networks Enhance the Predictability of Central European Stock Returns?

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Baruník, Jozef

    2008-01-01

    Roč. 58, 7-8 (2008), s. 359-376 ISSN 0015-1920 R&D Projects: GA ČR(CZ) GA402/06/1417 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z10750506 Keywords : emerging stock market s * predictability of stock returns * neural networks Subject RIV: AH - Economics Impact factor: 0.275, year: 2008 http://library.utia.cas.cz/separaty/2008/E/barunik-0314837.pdf

  3. The Use of Artificial Neural Network for Prediction of Dissolution Kinetics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H. Elçiçek

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Colemanite is a preferred boron mineral in industry, such as boric acid production, fabrication of heat resistant glass, and cleaning agents. Dissolution of the mineral is one of the most important processes for these industries. In this study, dissolution of colemanite was examined in water saturated with carbon dioxide solutions. Also, prediction of dissolution rate was determined using artificial neural networks (ANNs which are based on the multilayered perceptron. Reaction temperature, total pressure, stirring speed, solid/liquid ratio, particle size, and reaction time were selected as input parameters to predict the dissolution rate. Experimental dataset was used to train multilayer perceptron (MLP networks to allow for prediction of dissolution kinetics. Developing ANNs has provided highly accurate predictions in comparison with an obtained mathematical model used through regression method. We conclude that ANNs may be a preferred alternative approach instead of conventional statistical methods for prediction of boron minerals.

  4. Automated system for load flow prediction in power substations using artificial neural networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Arlys Michel Lastre Aleaga

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available The load flow is of great importance in assisting the process of decision making and planning of generation, distribution and transmission of electricity. Ignorance of the values in this indicator, as well as their inappropriate prediction, difficult decision making and efficiency of the electricity service, and can cause undesirable situations such as; the on demand, overheating of the components that make up a substation, and incorrect planning processes electricity generation and distribution. Given the need for prediction of flow of electric charge of the substations in Ecuador this research proposes the concept for the development of an automated prediction system employing the use of Artificial Neural Networks.

  5. Protein secondary structure prediction using modular reciprocal bidirectional recurrent neural networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Babaei, Sepideh; Geranmayeh, Amir; Seyyedsalehi, Seyyed Ali

    2010-12-01

    The supervised learning of recurrent neural networks well-suited for prediction of protein secondary structures from the underlying amino acids sequence is studied. Modular reciprocal recurrent neural networks (MRR-NN) are proposed to model the strong correlations between adjacent secondary structure elements. Besides, a multilayer bidirectional recurrent neural network (MBR-NN) is introduced to capture the long-range intramolecular interactions between amino acids in formation of the secondary structure. The final modular prediction system is devised based on the interactive integration of the MRR-NN and the MBR-NN structures to arbitrarily engage the neighboring effects of the secondary structure types concurrent with memorizing the sequential dependencies of amino acids along the protein chain. The advanced combined network augments the percentage accuracy (Q₃) to 79.36% and boosts the segment overlap (SOV) up to 70.09% when tested on the PSIPRED dataset in three-fold cross-validation. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  6. Prediction of Groundwater Arsenic Contamination using Geographic Information System and Artificial Neural Network

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Md. Moqbul Hossain

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Ground water arsenic contamination is a well known health and environmental problem in Bangladesh. Sources of this heavy metal are known to be geogenic, however, the processes of its release into groundwater are poorly understood phenomena. In quest of mitigation of the problem it is necessary to predict probable contamination before it causes any damage to human health. Hence our research has been carried out to find the factor relations of arsenic contamination and develop an arsenic contamination prediction model. Researchers have generally agreed that the elevated concentration of arsenic is affected by several factors such as soil reaction (pH, organic matter content, geology, iron content, etc. However, the variability of concentration within short lateral and vertical intervals, and the inter-relationships of variables among themselves, make the statistical analyses highly non-linear and difficult to converge with a meaningful relationship. Artificial Neural Networks (ANN comes in handy for such a black box type problem. This research uses Back propagation Neural Networks (BPNN to train and validate the data derived from Geographic Information System (GIS spatial distribution grids. The neural network architecture with (6-20-1 pattern was able to predict the arsenic concentration with reasonable accuracy.

  7. A neural network to predict reactor core behaviors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Juan Jose Ortiz-Servin; Jose Alejandro Castillo; Pelta, David A.

    2014-01-01

    The global fuel management problem in BWRs (Boiling Water Reactors) can be understood as a very complex optimization problem, where the variables represent design decisions and the quality assessment of each solution is done through a complex and computational expensive simulation. This last aspect is the major impediment to perform an extensive exploration of the design space, mainly due to the time lost evaluating non promising solutions. In this work, we show how we can train a Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP) to predict the reactor behavior for a given configuration. The trained MLP is able to evaluate the configurations immediately, thus allowing performing an exhaustive evaluation of the possible configurations derived from a stock of fuel lattices, fuel reload patterns and control rods patterns. For our particular problem, the number of configurations is approximately 7.7 x 10 10 ; the evaluation with the core simulator would need above 200 years, while only 100 hours were required with our approach to discern between bad and good configurations. The later were then evaluated by the simulator and we confirm the MLP usefulness. The good core configurations reached the energy requirements, satisfied the safety parameter constrains and they could reduce uranium enrichment costs. (authors)

  8. Evaluation and prediction of solar radiation for energy management based on neural networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aldoshina, O. V.; Van Tai, Dinh

    2017-08-01

    Currently, there is a high rate of distribution of renewable energy sources and distributed power generation based on intelligent networks; therefore, meteorological forecasts are particularly useful for planning and managing the energy system in order to increase its overall efficiency and productivity. The application of artificial neural networks (ANN) in the field of photovoltaic energy is presented in this article. Implemented in this study, two periodically repeating dynamic ANS, that are the concentration of the time delay of a neural network (CTDNN) and the non-linear autoregression of a network with exogenous inputs of the NAEI, are used in the development of a model for estimating and daily forecasting of solar radiation. ANN show good productivity, as reliable and accurate models of daily solar radiation are obtained. This allows to successfully predict the photovoltaic output power for this installation. The potential of the proposed method for controlling the energy of the electrical network is shown using the example of the application of the NAEI network for predicting the electric load.

  9. Knowledge base and neural network approach for protein secondary structure prediction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Patel, Maulika S; Mazumdar, Himanshu S

    2014-11-21

    Protein structure prediction is of great relevance given the abundant genomic and proteomic data generated by the genome sequencing projects. Protein secondary structure prediction is addressed as a sub task in determining the protein tertiary structure and function. In this paper, a novel algorithm, KB-PROSSP-NN, which is a combination of knowledge base and modeling of the exceptions in the knowledge base using neural networks for protein secondary structure prediction (PSSP), is proposed. The knowledge base is derived from a proteomic sequence-structure database and consists of the statistics of association between the 5-residue words and corresponding secondary structure. The predicted results obtained using knowledge base are refined with a Backpropogation neural network algorithm. Neural net models the exceptions of the knowledge base. The Q3 accuracy of 90% and 82% is achieved on the RS126 and CB396 test sets respectively which suggest improvement over existing state of art methods. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  10. A Comparison of Energy Consumption Prediction Models Based on Neural Networks of a Bioclimatic Building

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hamid R. Khosravani

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Energy consumption has been increasing steadily due to globalization and industrialization. Studies have shown that buildings are responsible for the biggest proportion of energy consumption; for example in European Union countries, energy consumption in buildings represents around 40% of the total energy consumption. In order to control energy consumption in buildings, different policies have been proposed, from utilizing bioclimatic architectures to the use of predictive models within control approaches. There are mainly three groups of predictive models including engineering, statistical and artificial intelligence models. Nowadays, artificial intelligence models such as neural networks and support vector machines have also been proposed because of their high potential capabilities of performing accurate nonlinear mappings between inputs and outputs in real environments which are not free of noise. The main objective of this paper is to compare a neural network model which was designed utilizing statistical and analytical methods, with a group of neural network models designed benefiting from a multi objective genetic algorithm. Moreover, the neural network models were compared to a naïve autoregressive baseline model. The models are intended to predict electric power demand at the Solar Energy Research Center (Centro de Investigación en Energía SOLar or CIESOL in Spanish bioclimatic building located at the University of Almeria, Spain. Experimental results show that the models obtained from the multi objective genetic algorithm (MOGA perform comparably to the model obtained through a statistical and analytical approach, but they use only 0.8% of data samples and have lower model complexity.

  11. Prediction of fuel consumption of mining dump trucks: A neural networks approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Siami-Irdemoosa, Elnaz; Dindarloo, Saeid R.

    2015-01-01

    Highlights: • A neural network model of fuel consumption in mining haul trucks was constructed and tested. • Using the cyclic activities, the model was able to predict unseen (testing) data. • Trucks idle times were identified as the most important unnecessary energy consuming portion of the network. • Practical remedies, based on the nature of mining operations, were proposed to reduce the energy consumption. - Abstract: Fuel consumption of mining dump trucks accounts for about 30% of total energy use in surface mines. Moreover, a fleet of large dump trucks is the main source of greenhouse gas (GHG) generation. Modeling and prediction of fuel consumption per cycle is a valuable tool in assessing both energy costs and the resulting GHG generation. However, only a few studies have been published on fuel prediction in mining operations. In this paper, fuel consumption per cycle of operation was predicted using artificial neural networks (ANN) technique. Explanatory variables were: pay load, loading time, idled while loaded, loaded travel time, empty travel time, and idled while empty. The output variable was the amount of fuel consumed in one cycle. Mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) of 10% demonstrated applicability of ANN in prediction of the fuel consumption. The results demonstrated the considerable effect of mining trucks idle times in fuel consumption. A large portion of the unnecessary energy consumption and GHG generation, in this study, was solely due to avoidable idle times. This necessitates implementation of proper actions/remedies in form of both preventive and corrective actions

  12. Prediction of compressibility parameters of the soils using artificial neural network.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kurnaz, T Fikret; Dagdeviren, Ugur; Yildiz, Murat; Ozkan, Ozhan

    2016-01-01

    The compression index and recompression index are one of the important compressibility parameters to determine the settlement calculation for fine-grained soil layers. These parameters can be determined by carrying out laboratory oedometer test on undisturbed samples; however, the test is quite time-consuming and expensive. Therefore, many empirical formulas based on regression analysis have been presented to estimate the compressibility parameters using soil index properties. In this paper, an artificial neural network (ANN) model is suggested for prediction of compressibility parameters from basic soil properties. For this purpose, the input parameters are selected as the natural water content, initial void ratio, liquid limit and plasticity index. In this model, two output parameters, including compression index and recompression index, are predicted in a combined network structure. As the result of the study, proposed ANN model is successful for the prediction of the compression index, however the predicted recompression index values are not satisfying compared to the compression index.

  13. A Nonlinear Autoregressive Exogenous (NARX Neural Network Model for the Prediction of the Daily Direct Solar Radiation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zina Boussaada

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available The solar photovoltaic (PV energy has an important place among the renewable energy sources. Therefore, several researchers have been interested by its modelling and its prediction, in order to improve the management of the electrical systems which include PV arrays. Among the existing techniques, artificial neural networks have proved their performance in the prediction of the solar radiation. However, the existing neural network models don’t satisfy the requirements of certain specific situations such as the one analyzed in this paper. The aim of this research work is to supply, with electricity, a race sailboat using exclusively renewable sources. The developed solution predicts the direct solar radiation on a horizontal surface. For that, a Nonlinear Autoregressive Exogenous (NARX neural network is used. All the specific conditions of the sailboat operation are taken into account. The results show that the best prediction performance is obtained when the training phase of the neural network is performed periodically.

  14. Prediction of phenotypic susceptibility to antiretroviral drugs using physiochemical properties of the primary enzymatic structure combined with artificial neural networks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kjaer, J; Høj, L; Fox, Z

    2008-01-01

    OBJECTIVES: Genotypic interpretation systems extrapolate observed associations in datasets to predict viral susceptibility to antiretroviral drugs (ARVs) for given isolates. We aimed to develop and validate an approach using artificial neural networks (ANNs) that employ descriptors...

  15. Artificial neural network as the tool in prediction rheological features of raw minced meat.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Balejko, Jerzy A; Nowak, Zbigniew; Balejko, Edyta

    2012-01-01

    The aim of the study was to elaborate a method of modelling and forecasting rheological features which could be applied to raw minced meat at the stage of mixture preparation with a given ingredient composition. The investigated material contained pork and beef meat, pork fat, fat substitutes, ice and curing mixture in various proportions. Seven texture parameters were measured for each sample of raw minced meat. The data obtained were processed using the artificial neural network module in Statistica 9.0 software. The model that reached the lowest training error was a multi-layer perceptron MLP with three neural layers and architecture 7:7-11-7:7. Correlation coefficients between the experimental and calculated values in training, verification and testing subsets were similar and rather high (around 0.65) which indicated good network performance. High percentage of the total variance explained in PCA analysis (73.5%) indicated that the percentage composition of raw minced meat can be successfully used in the prediction of its rheological features. Statistical analysis of the results revealed, that artificial neural network model is able to predict rheological parameters and thus a complete texture profile of raw minced meat.

  16. Prediction of deformations of steel plate by artificial neural network in forming process with induction heating

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nguyen, Truong Thinh; Yang, Young Soo; Bae, Kang Yul; Choi, Sung Nam

    2009-01-01

    To control a heat source easily in the forming process of steel plate with heating, the electro-magnetic induction process has been used as a substitute of the flame heating process. However, only few studies have analyzed the deformation of a workpiece in the induction heating process by using a mathematical model. This is mainly due to the difficulty of modeling the heat flux from the inductor traveling on the conductive plate during the induction process. In this study, the heat flux distribution over a steel plate during the induction process is first analyzed by a numerical method with the assumption that the process is in a quasi-stationary state around the inductor and also that the heat flux itself greatly depends on the temperature of the workpiece. With the heat flux, heat flow and thermo-mechanical analyses on the plate to obtain deformations during the heating process are then performed with a commercial FEM program for 34 combinations of heating parameters. An artificial neural network is proposed to build a simplified relationship between deformations and heating parameters that can be easily utilized to predict deformations of steel plate with a wide range of heating parameters in the heating process. After its architecture is optimized, the artificial neural network is trained with the deformations obtained from the FEM analyses as outputs and the related heating parameters as inputs. The predicted outputs from the neural network are compared with those of the experiments and the numerical results. They are in good agreement

  17. Analysis of Artificial Neural Network Backpropagation Using Conjugate Gradient Fletcher Reeves In The Predicting Process

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wanto, Anjar; Zarlis, Muhammad; Sawaluddin; Hartama, Dedy

    2017-12-01

    Backpropagation is a good artificial neural network algorithm used to predict, one of which is to predict the rate of Consumer Price Index (CPI) based on the foodstuff sector. While conjugate gradient fletcher reeves is a suitable optimization method when juxtaposed with backpropagation method, because this method can shorten iteration without reducing the quality of training and testing result. Consumer Price Index (CPI) data that will be predicted to come from the Central Statistics Agency (BPS) Pematangsiantar. The results of this study will be expected to contribute to the government in making policies to improve economic growth. In this study, the data obtained will be processed by conducting training and testing with artificial neural network backpropagation by using parameter learning rate 0,01 and target error minimum that is 0.001-0,09. The training network is built with binary and bipolar sigmoid activation functions. After the results with backpropagation are obtained, it will then be optimized using the conjugate gradient fletcher reeves method by conducting the same training and testing based on 5 predefined network architectures. The result, the method used can increase the speed and accuracy result.

  18. Artificial neural networks to predict presence of significant pathology in patients presenting to routine colorectal clinics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maslekar, S; Gardiner, A B; Monson, J R T; Duthie, G S

    2010-12-01

    Artificial neural networks (ANNs) are computer programs used to identify complex relations within data. Routine predictions of presence of colorectal pathology based on population statistics have little meaning for individual patient. This results in large number of unnecessary lower gastrointestinal endoscopies (LGEs - colonoscopies and flexible sigmoidoscopies). We aimed to develop a neural network algorithm that can accurately predict presence of significant pathology in patients attending routine outpatient clinics for gastrointestinal symptoms. Ethics approval was obtained and the study was monitored according to International Committee on Harmonisation - Good Clinical Practice (ICH-GCP) standards. Three-hundred patients undergoing LGE prospectively completed a specifically developed questionnaire, which included 40 variables based on clinical symptoms, signs, past- and family history. Complete data sets of 100 patients were used to train the ANN; the remaining data was used for internal validation. The primary output used was positive finding on LGE, including polyps, cancer, diverticular disease or colitis. For external validation, the ANN was applied to data from 50 patients in primary care and also compared with the predictions of four clinicians. Clear correlation between actual data value and ANN predictions were found (r = 0.931; P = 0.0001). The predictive accuracy of ANN was 95% in training group and 90% (95% CI 84-96) in the internal validation set and this was significantly higher than the clinical accuracy (75%). ANN also showed high accuracy in the external validation group (89%). Artificial neural networks offer the possibility of personal prediction of outcome for individual patients presenting in clinics with colorectal symptoms, making it possible to make more appropriate requests for lower gastrointestinal endoscopy. © 2010 The Authors. Colorectal Disease © 2010 The Association of Coloproctology of Great Britain and Ireland.

  19. Artificial neural network models for prediction of intestinal permeability of oligopeptides

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kim Min-Kook

    2007-07-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Oral delivery is a highly desirable property for candidate drugs under development. Computational modeling could provide a quick and inexpensive way to assess the intestinal permeability of a molecule. Although there have been several studies aimed at predicting the intestinal absorption of chemical compounds, there have been no attempts to predict intestinal permeability on the basis of peptide sequence information. To develop models for predicting the intestinal permeability of peptides, we adopted an artificial neural network as a machine-learning algorithm. The positive control data consisted of intestinal barrier-permeable peptides obtained by the peroral phage display technique, and the negative control data were prepared from random sequences. Results The capacity of our models to make appropriate predictions was validated by statistical indicators including sensitivity, specificity, enrichment curve, and the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC curve (the ROC score. The training and test set statistics indicated that our models were of strikingly good quality and could discriminate between permeable and random sequences with a high level of confidence. Conclusion We developed artificial neural network models to predict the intestinal permeabilities of oligopeptides on the basis of peptide sequence information. Both binary and VHSE (principal components score Vectors of Hydrophobic, Steric and Electronic properties descriptors produced statistically significant training models; the models with simple neural network architectures showed slightly greater predictive power than those with complex ones. We anticipate that our models will be applicable to the selection of intestinal barrier-permeable peptides for generating peptide drugs or peptidomimetics.

  20. Neural networks and principle component analysis approaches to predict pile capacity in sand

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Benali A

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Determination of pile bearing capacity from the in-situ tests has developed considerably due to the significant development of their technology. The project presented in this paper is a combination of two approaches, artificial neural networks and main component analyses that allow the development of a neural network model that provides a more accurate prediction of axial load bearing capacity based on the SPT test data. The retropropagation multi-layer perceptron with Bayesian regularization (RB was used in this model. This was established by the incorporation of about 260 data, obtained from the published literature, of experimental programs for large displacement driven piles. The PCA method is proposed for compression and suppression of the correlation between these data. This will improve the performance of generalization of the model.

  1. Prediction of Optimal Design and Deflection of Space Structures Using Neural Networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Reza Kamyab Moghadas

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available The main aim of the present work is to determine the optimal design and maximum deflection of double layer grids spending low computational cost using neural networks. The design variables of the optimization problem are cross-sectional area of the elements as well as the length of the span and height of the structures. In this paper, a number of double layer grids with various random values of length and height are selected and optimized by simultaneous perturbation stochastic approximation algorithm. Then, radial basis function (RBF and generalized regression (GR neural networks are trained to predict the optimal design and maximum deflection of the structures. The numerical results demonstrate the efficiency of the proposed methodology.

  2. Design of artificial neural networks using a genetic algorithm to predict collection efficiency in venturi scrubbers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taheri, Mahboobeh; Mohebbi, Ali

    2008-08-30

    In this study, a new approach for the auto-design of neural networks, based on a genetic algorithm (GA), has been used to predict collection efficiency in venturi scrubbers. The experimental input data, including particle diameter, throat gas velocity, liquid to gas flow rate ratio, throat hydraulic diameter, pressure drop across the venturi scrubber and collection efficiency as an output, have been used to create a GA-artificial neural network (ANN) model. The testing results from the model are in good agreement with the experimental data. Comparison of the results of the GA optimized ANN model with the results from the trial-and-error calibrated ANN model indicates that the GA-ANN model is more efficient. Finally, the effects of operating parameters such as liquid to gas flow rate ratio, throat gas velocity, and particle diameter on collection efficiency were determined.

  3. Copula Entropy coupled with Wavelet Neural Network Model for Hydrological Prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Yin; Yue, JiGuang; Liu, ShuGuang; Wang, Li

    2018-02-01

    Artificial Neural network(ANN) has been widely used in hydrological forecasting. in this paper an attempt has been made to find an alternative method for hydrological prediction by combining Copula Entropy(CE) with Wavelet Neural Network(WNN), CE theory permits to calculate mutual information(MI) to select Input variables which avoids the limitations of the traditional linear correlation(LCC) analysis. Wavelet analysis can provide the exact locality of any changes in the dynamical patterns of the sequence Coupled with ANN Strong non-linear fitting ability. WNN model was able to provide a good fit with the hydrological data. finally, the hybrid model(CE+WNN) have been applied to daily water level of Taihu Lake Basin, and compared with CE ANN, LCC WNN and LCC ANN. Results showed that the hybrid model produced better results in estimating the hydrograph properties than the latter models.

  4. BP neural network optimized by genetic algorithm approach for titanium and iron content prediction in EDXRF

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wang Jun; Liu Mingzhe; Li Zhe; Li Lei; Shi Rui; Tuo Xianguo

    2015-01-01

    The quantitative elemental content analysis is difficult due to the uniform effect, particle effect and the element matrix effect, etc, when using energy dispersive X-ray fluorescence (EDXRF) technique. In this paper, a hybrid approach of genetic algorithm (GA) and back propagation (BP) neural network was proposed without considering the complex relationship between the concentration and intensity. The aim of GA optimized BP was to get better network initial weights and thresholds. The basic idea was that the reciprocal of the mean square error of the initialization BP neural network was set as the fitness value of the individual in GA, and the initial weights and thresholds were replaced by individuals, and then the optimal individual was sought by selection, crossover and mutation operations, finally a new BP neural network model was created with the optimal initial weights and thresholds. The calculation results of quantitative analysis of titanium and iron contents for five types of ore bodies in Panzhihua Mine show that the results of classification prediction are far better than that of overall forecasting, and relative errors of 76.7% samples are less than 2% compared with chemical analysis values, which demonstrates the effectiveness of the proposed method. (authors)

  5. Predicting Subcontractor Performance Using Web-Based Evolutionary Fuzzy Neural Networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chien-Ho Ko

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Subcontractor performance directly affects project success. The use of inappropriate subcontractors may result in individual work delays, cost overruns, and quality defects throughout the project. This study develops web-based Evolutionary Fuzzy Neural Networks (EFNNs to predict subcontractor performance. EFNNs are a fusion of Genetic Algorithms (GAs, Fuzzy Logic (FL, and Neural Networks (NNs. FL is primarily used to mimic high level of decision-making processes and deal with uncertainty in the construction industry. NNs are used to identify the association between previous performance and future status when predicting subcontractor performance. GAs are optimizing parameters required in FL and NNs. EFNNs encode FL and NNs using floating numbers to shorten the length of a string. A multi-cut-point crossover operator is used to explore the parameter and retain solution legality. Finally, the applicability of the proposed EFNNs is validated using real subcontractors. The EFNNs are evolved using 22 historical patterns and tested using 12 unseen cases. Application results show that the proposed EFNNs surpass FL and NNs in predicting subcontractor performance. The proposed approach improves prediction accuracy and reduces the effort required to predict subcontractor performance, providing field operators with web-based remote access to a reliable, scientific prediction mechanism.

  6. Predicting subcontractor performance using web-based Evolutionary Fuzzy Neural Networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ko, Chien-Ho

    2013-01-01

    Subcontractor performance directly affects project success. The use of inappropriate subcontractors may result in individual work delays, cost overruns, and quality defects throughout the project. This study develops web-based Evolutionary Fuzzy Neural Networks (EFNNs) to predict subcontractor performance. EFNNs are a fusion of Genetic Algorithms (GAs), Fuzzy Logic (FL), and Neural Networks (NNs). FL is primarily used to mimic high level of decision-making processes and deal with uncertainty in the construction industry. NNs are used to identify the association between previous performance and future status when predicting subcontractor performance. GAs are optimizing parameters required in FL and NNs. EFNNs encode FL and NNs using floating numbers to shorten the length of a string. A multi-cut-point crossover operator is used to explore the parameter and retain solution legality. Finally, the applicability of the proposed EFNNs is validated using real subcontractors. The EFNNs are evolved using 22 historical patterns and tested using 12 unseen cases. Application results show that the proposed EFNNs surpass FL and NNs in predicting subcontractor performance. The proposed approach improves prediction accuracy and reduces the effort required to predict subcontractor performance, providing field operators with web-based remote access to a reliable, scientific prediction mechanism.

  7. Research on the Prediction Model of CPU Utilization Based on ARIMA-BP Neural Network

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wang Jina

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The dynamic deployment technology of the virtual machine is one of the current cloud computing research focuses. The traditional methods mainly work after the degradation of the service performance that usually lag. To solve the problem a new prediction model based on the CPU utilization is constructed in this paper. A reference offered by the new prediction model of the CPU utilization is provided to the VM dynamic deployment process which will speed to finish the deployment process before the degradation of the service performance. By this method it not only ensure the quality of services but also improve the server performance and resource utilization. The new prediction method of the CPU utilization based on the ARIMA-BP neural network mainly include four parts: preprocess the collected data, build the predictive model of ARIMA-BP neural network, modify the nonlinear residuals of the time series by the BP prediction algorithm and obtain the prediction results by analyzing the above data comprehensively.

  8. Prediction of small hydropower plant power production in Himreen Lake dam (HLD using artificial neural network

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ali Thaeer Hammid

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available In developing countries, the power production is properly less than the request of power or load, and sustaining a system stability of power production is a trouble quietly. Sometimes, there is a necessary development to the correct quantity of load demand to retain a system of power production steadily. Thus, Small Hydropower Plant (SHP includes a Kaplan turbine was verified to explore its applicability. This paper concentrates on applying on Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs by approaching of Feed-Forward, Back-Propagation to make performance predictions of the hydropower plant at the Himreen lake dam-Diyala in terms of net turbine head, flow rate of water and power production that data gathered during a research over a 10 year period. The model studies the uncertainties of inputs and output operation and there's a designing to network structure and then trained by means of the entire of 3570 experimental and observed data. Furthermore, ANN offers an analyzing and diagnosing instrument effectively to model performance of the nonlinear plant. The study suggests that the ANN may predict the performance of the plant with a correlation coefficient (R between the variables of predicted and observed output that would be higher than 0.96. Keywords: Himreen Lake Dam, Small Hydropower plants, Artificial Neural Networks, Feed forward-back propagation model, Generation system's prediction

  9. Using Long-Short-Term-Memory Recurrent Neural Networks to Predict Aviation Engine Vibrations

    Science.gov (United States)

    ElSaid, AbdElRahman Ahmed

    This thesis examines building viable Recurrent Neural Networks (RNN) using Long Short Term Memory (LSTM) neurons to predict aircraft engine vibrations. The different networks are trained on a large database of flight data records obtained from an airline containing flights that suffered from excessive vibration. RNNs can provide a more generalizable and robust method for prediction over analytical calculations of engine vibration, as analytical calculations must be solved iteratively based on specific empirical engine parameters, and this database contains multiple types of engines. Further, LSTM RNNs provide a "memory" of the contribution of previous time series data which can further improve predictions of future vibration values. LSTM RNNs were used over traditional RNNs, as those suffer from vanishing/exploding gradients when trained with back propagation. The study managed to predict vibration values for 1, 5, 10, and 20 seconds in the future, with 2.84% 3.3%, 5.51% and 10.19% mean absolute error, respectively. These neural networks provide a promising means for the future development of warning systems so that suitable actions can be taken before the occurrence of excess vibration to avoid unfavorable situations during flight.

  10. Improving protein disorder prediction by deep bidirectional long short-term memory recurrent neural networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hanson, Jack; Yang, Yuedong; Paliwal, Kuldip; Zhou, Yaoqi

    2017-03-01

    Capturing long-range interactions between structural but not sequence neighbors of proteins is a long-standing challenging problem in bioinformatics. Recently, long short-term memory (LSTM) networks have significantly improved the accuracy of speech and image classification problems by remembering useful past information in long sequential events. Here, we have implemented deep bidirectional LSTM recurrent neural networks in the problem of protein intrinsic disorder prediction. The new method, named SPOT-Disorder, has steadily improved over a similar method using a traditional, window-based neural network (SPINE-D) in all datasets tested without separate training on short and long disordered regions. Independent tests on four other datasets including the datasets from critical assessment of structure prediction (CASP) techniques and >10 000 annotated proteins from MobiDB, confirmed SPOT-Disorder as one of the best methods in disorder prediction. Moreover, initial studies indicate that the method is more accurate in predicting functional sites in disordered regions. These results highlight the usefulness combining LSTM with deep bidirectional recurrent neural networks in capturing non-local, long-range interactions for bioinformatics applications. SPOT-disorder is available as a web server and as a standalone program at: http://sparks-lab.org/server/SPOT-disorder/index.php . j.hanson@griffith.edu.au or yuedong.yang@griffith.edu.au or yaoqi.zhou@griffith.edu.au. Supplementary data is available at Bioinformatics online. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com

  11. Applications of Artificial Neural Network for the Prediction of Pool Boiling Curves

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Su, Guanghui; Fukuda, K.; Morita, K.

    2002-01-01

    Artificial neural network (ANN) has the advantage that the best-fit correlations of experimental data will no longer be necessary for predicting unknowns from the known parameters. The ANN was applied to predict the pool boiling curves in this paper. The database of experimental data presented by Berenson, Dhuga et al., and Bui and Dhir etc. were used in the analysis. The database is subdivided in two subsets. The first subset is used to train the network and the second one is used to test the network after the training process. The input parameters of the ANN are: wall superheat ΔT w , surface roughness, steady/transient heating/transient cooling, subcooling, Surface inclination and pressure. The output parameter is heat flux q. The proposed methodology allows us to achieve the accuracy that satisfies the user's convergence criterion and it is suitable for pool boiling curve data processing. (authors)

  12. Prediction of vibration characteristics of a planar mechanism having imperfect joints using neural network

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Erkaya, Selcuk

    2012-01-01

    Clearance is inevitable in the joints of mechanisms due primarily to the design, manufacturing and assembly processes or a wear effect. Excessive value of joint clearance plays a crucial role and has a significant effect on the kinematic and dynamic performances of the mechanism. In this study, effects of joint clearances on bearing vibrations of mechanism are investigated. An experimental test rig is set up, and a planar slider-crank mechanism having two imperfect joints with radial clearance is used as a model mechanism. Three accelerometers are positioned at different points to measure the bearing vibrations during the mechanism motion. For the different running speeds and clearance sizes, this work provides a neural model to predict and estimate the bearing vibrations of the mechanical systems having imperfect joints. The results show that radial basis function (RBF) neural network has a superior performance for predicting and estimating the vibration characteristics of the mechanical system

  13. Prediction Study on Anti-Slide Control of Railway Vehicle Based on RBF Neural Networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Lijun; Zhang, Jimin

    While railway vehicle braking, Anti-slide control system will detect operating status of each wheel-sets e.g. speed difference and deceleration etc. Once the detected value on some wheel-set is over pre-defined threshold, brake effort on such wheel-set will be adjusted automatically to avoid blocking. Such method takes effect on guarantee safety operation of vehicle and avoid wheel-set flatness, however it cannot adapt itself to the rail adhesion variation. While wheel-sets slide, the operating status is chaotic time series with certain law, and can be predicted with the law and experiment data in certain time. The predicted values can be used as the input reference signals of vehicle anti-slide control system, to judge and control the slide status of wheel-sets. In this article, the RBF neural networks is taken to predict wheel-set slide status in multi-step with weight vector adjusted based on online self-adaptive algorithm, and the center & normalizing parameters of active function of the hidden unit of RBF neural networks' hidden layer computed with K-means clustering algorithm. With multi-step prediction simulation, the predicted signal with appropriate precision can be used by anti-slide system to trace actively and adjust wheel-set slide tendency, so as to adapt to wheel-rail adhesion variation and reduce the risk of wheel-set blocking.

  14. Performance Evaluation of 14 Neural Network Architectures Used for Predicting Heat Transfer Characteristics of Engine Oils

    Science.gov (United States)

    Al-Ajmi, R. M.; Abou-Ziyan, H. Z.; Mahmoud, M. A.

    2012-01-01

    This paper reports the results of a comprehensive study that aimed at identifying best neural network architecture and parameters to predict subcooled boiling characteristics of engine oils. A total of 57 different neural networks (NNs) that were derived from 14 different NN architectures were evaluated for four different prediction cases. The NNs were trained on experimental datasets performed on five engine oils of different chemical compositions. The performance of each NN was evaluated using a rigorous statistical analysis as well as careful examination of smoothness of predicted boiling curves. One NN, out of the 57 evaluated, correctly predicted the boiling curves for all cases considered either for individual oils or for all oils taken together. It was found that the pattern selection and weight update techniques strongly affect the performance of the NNs. It was also revealed that the use of descriptive statistical analysis such as R2, mean error, standard deviation, and T and slope tests, is a necessary but not sufficient condition for evaluating NN performance. The performance criteria should also include inspection of the smoothness of the predicted curves either visually or by plotting the slopes of these curves.

  15. Software Design Challenges in Time Series Prediction Systems Using Parallel Implementation of Artificial Neural Networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Narayanan Manikandan

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Software development life cycle has been characterized by destructive disconnects between activities like planning, analysis, design, and programming. Particularly software developed with prediction based results is always a big challenge for designers. Time series data forecasting like currency exchange, stock prices, and weather report are some of the areas where an extensive research is going on for the last three decades. In the initial days, the problems with financial analysis and prediction were solved by statistical models and methods. For the last two decades, a large number of Artificial Neural Networks based learning models have been proposed to solve the problems of financial data and get accurate results in prediction of the future trends and prices. This paper addressed some architectural design related issues for performance improvement through vectorising the strengths of multivariate econometric time series models and Artificial Neural Networks. It provides an adaptive approach for predicting exchange rates and it can be called hybrid methodology for predicting exchange rates. This framework is tested for finding the accuracy and performance of parallel algorithms used.

  16. Sensitivity Analysis of Wavelet Neural Network Model for Short-Term Traffic Volume Prediction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jinxing Shen

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available In order to achieve a more accurate and robust traffic volume prediction model, the sensitivity of wavelet neural network model (WNNM is analyzed in this study. Based on real loop detector data which is provided by traffic police detachment of Maanshan, WNNM is discussed with different numbers of input neurons, different number of hidden neurons, and traffic volume for different time intervals. The test results show that the performance of WNNM depends heavily on network parameters and time interval of traffic volume. In addition, the WNNM with 4 input neurons and 6 hidden neurons is the optimal predictor with more accuracy, stability, and adaptability. At the same time, a much better prediction record will be achieved with the time interval of traffic volume are 15 minutes. In addition, the optimized WNNM is compared with the widely used back-propagation neural network (BPNN. The comparison results indicated that WNNM produce much lower values of MAE, MAPE, and VAPE than BPNN, which proves that WNNM performs better on short-term traffic volume prediction.

  17. Predicting tool life in turning operations using neural networks and image processing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mikołajczyk, T.; Nowicki, K.; Bustillo, A.; Yu Pimenov, D.

    2018-05-01

    A two-step method is presented for the automatic prediction of tool life in turning operations. First, experimental data are collected for three cutting edges under the same constant processing conditions. In these experiments, the parameter of tool wear, VB, is measured with conventional methods and the same parameter is estimated using Neural Wear, a customized software package that combines flank wear image recognition and Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs). Second, an ANN model of tool life is trained with the data collected from the first two cutting edges and the subsequent model is evaluated on two different subsets for the third cutting edge: the first subset is obtained from the direct measurement of tool wear and the second is obtained from the Neural Wear software that estimates tool wear using edge images. Although the complete-automated solution, Neural Wear software for tool wear recognition plus the ANN model of tool life prediction, presented a slightly higher error than the direct measurements, it was within the same range and can meet all industrial requirements. These results confirm that the combination of image recognition software and ANN modelling could potentially be developed into a useful industrial tool for low-cost estimation of tool life in turning operations.

  18. Prediction of geomagnetic storms from solar wind data with the use of a neural network

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H. Lundstedt

    Full Text Available An artificial feed-forward neural network with one hidden layer and error back-propagation learning is used to predict the geomagnetic activity index (Dst one hour in advance. The Bz-component and ΣBz, the density, and the velocity of the solar wind are used as input to the network. The network is trained on data covering a total of 8700 h, extracted from the 25-year period from 1963 to 1987, taken from the NSSDC data base. The performance of the network is examined with test data, not included in the training set, which covers 386 h and includes four different storms. Whilst the network predicts the initial and main phase well, the recovery phase is not modelled correctly, implying that a single hidden layer error back-propagation network is not enough, if the measured Dst is not available instantaneously. The performance of the network is independent of whether the raw parameters are used, or the electric field and square root of the dynamical pressure.

  19. A new wind power prediction method based on chaotic theory and Bernstein Neural Network

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wang, Cong; Zhang, Hongli; Fan, Wenhui; Fan, Xiaochao

    2016-01-01

    The accuracy of wind power prediction is important for assessing the security and economy of the system operation when wind power connects to the grids. However, multiple factors cause a long delay and large errors in wind power prediction. Hence, efficient wind power forecasting approaches are still required for practical applications. In this paper, a new wind power forecasting method based on Chaos Theory and Bernstein Neural Network (BNN) is proposed. Firstly, the largest Lyapunov exponent as a judgment for wind power system's chaotic behavior is made. Secondly, Phase Space Reconstruction (PSR) is used to reconstruct the wind power series' phase space. Thirdly, the prediction model is constructed using the Bernstein polynomial and neural network. Finally, the weights and thresholds of the model are optimized by Primal Dual State Transition Algorithm (PDSTA). The practical hourly data of wind power generation in Xinjiang is used to test this forecaster. The proposed forecaster is compared with several current prominent research findings. Analytical results indicate that the forecasting error of PDSTA + BNN is 3.893% for 24 look-ahead hours, and has lower errors obtained compared with the other forecast methods discussed in this paper. The results of all cases studying confirm the validity of the new forecast method. - Highlights: • Lyapunov exponent is used to verify chaotic behavior of wind power series. • Phase Space Reconstruction is used to reconstruct chaotic wind power series. • A new Bernstein Neural Network to predict wind power series is proposed. • Primal dual state transition algorithm is chosen as the training strategy of BNN.

  20. EBaLM-THP - A neural network thermohydraulic prediction model of advanced nuclear system components

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ridluan, Artit; Manic, Milos; Tokuhiro, Akira

    2009-01-01

    In lieu of the worldwide energy demand, economics and consensus concern regarding climate change, nuclear power - specifically near-term nuclear power plant designs are receiving increased engineering attention. However, as the nuclear industry is emerging from a lull in component modeling and analyses, optimization for example using ANN has received little research attention. This paper presents a neural network approach, EBaLM, based on a specific combination of two training algorithms, error-back propagation (EBP), and Levenberg-Marquardt (LM), applied to a problem of thermohydraulics predictions (THPs) of advanced nuclear heat exchangers (HXs). The suitability of the EBaLM-THP algorithm was tested on two different reference problems in thermohydraulic design analysis; that is, convective heat transfer of supercritical CO 2 through a single tube, and convective heat transfer through a printed circuit heat exchanger (PCHE) using CO 2 . Further, comparison of EBaLM-THP and a polynomial fitting approach was considered. Within the defined reference problems, the neural network approach generated good results in both cases, in spite of highly fluctuating trends in the dataset used. In fact, the neural network approach demonstrated cumulative measure of the error one to three orders of magnitude smaller than that produce via polynomial fitting of 10th order

  1. Clinical Outcome Prediction in Aneurysmal Subarachnoid Hemorrhage Using Bayesian Neural Networks with Fuzzy Logic Inferences

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Benjamin W. Y. Lo

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Objective. The novel clinical prediction approach of Bayesian neural networks with fuzzy logic inferences is created and applied to derive prognostic decision rules in cerebral aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage (aSAH. Methods. The approach of Bayesian neural networks with fuzzy logic inferences was applied to data from five trials of Tirilazad for aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage (3551 patients. Results. Bayesian meta-analyses of observational studies on aSAH prognostic factors gave generalizable posterior distributions of population mean log odd ratios (ORs. Similar trends were noted in Bayesian and linear regression ORs. Significant outcome predictors include normal motor response, cerebral infarction, history of myocardial infarction, cerebral edema, history of diabetes mellitus, fever on day 8, prior subarachnoid hemorrhage, admission angiographic vasospasm, neurological grade, intraventricular hemorrhage, ruptured aneurysm size, history of hypertension, vasospasm day, age and mean arterial pressure. Heteroscedasticity was present in the nontransformed dataset. Artificial neural networks found nonlinear relationships with 11 hidden variables in 1 layer, using the multilayer perceptron model. Fuzzy logic decision rules (centroid defuzzification technique denoted cut-off points for poor prognosis at greater than 2.5 clusters. Discussion. This aSAH prognostic system makes use of existing knowledge, recognizes unknown areas, incorporates one's clinical reasoning, and compensates for uncertainty in prognostication.

  2. Artificial neural network implementation of a near-ideal error prediction controller

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mcvey, Eugene S.; Taylor, Lynore Denise

    1992-01-01

    A theory has been developed at the University of Virginia which explains the effects of including an ideal predictor in the forward loop of a linear error-sampled system. It has been shown that the presence of this ideal predictor tends to stabilize the class of systems considered. A prediction controller is merely a system which anticipates a signal or part of a signal before it actually occurs. It is understood that an exact prediction controller is physically unrealizable. However, in systems where the input tends to be repetitive or limited, (i.e., not random) near ideal prediction is possible. In order for the controller to act as a stability compensator, the predictor must be designed in a way that allows it to learn the expected error response of the system. In this way, an unstable system will become stable by including the predicted error in the system transfer function. Previous and current prediction controller include pattern recognition developments and fast-time simulation which are applicable to the analysis of linear sampled data type systems. The use of pattern recognition techniques, along with a template matching scheme, has been proposed as one realizable type of near-ideal prediction. Since many, if not most, systems are repeatedly subjected to similar inputs, it was proposed that an adaptive mechanism be used to 'learn' the correct predicted error response. Once the system has learned the response of all the expected inputs, it is necessary only to recognize the type of input with a template matching mechanism and then to use the correct predicted error to drive the system. Suggested here is an alternate approach to the realization of a near-ideal error prediction controller, one designed using Neural Networks. Neural Networks are good at recognizing patterns such as system responses, and the back-propagation architecture makes use of a template matching scheme. In using this type of error prediction, it is assumed that the system error

  3. Prediction of friction factor of pure water flowing inside vertical smooth and microfin tubes by using artificial neural networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Çebi, A.; Akdoğan, E.; Celen, A.; Dalkilic, A. S.

    2017-02-01

    An artificial neural network (ANN) model of friction factor in smooth and microfin tubes under heating, cooling and isothermal conditions was developed in this study. Data used in ANN was taken from a vertically positioned heat exchanger experimental setup. Multi-layered feed-forward neural network with backpropagation algorithm, radial basis function networks and hybrid PSO-neural network algorithm were applied to the database. Inputs were the ratio of cross sectional flow area to hydraulic diameter, experimental condition number depending on isothermal, heating, or cooling conditions and mass flow rate while the friction factor was the output of the constructed system. It was observed that such neural network based system could effectively predict the friction factor values of the flows regardless of their tube types. A dependency analysis to determine the strongest parameter that affected the network and database was also performed and tube geometry was found to be the strongest parameter of all as a result of analysis.

  4. Predicting the wheel rolling resistance regarding important motion parameters using the artificial neural network

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    F Gheshlaghi

    2016-04-01

    the analytical and statistical methods. It is expected that the neural network can more accurately predict the rolling resistance. In this study, the neural network for experimental data was trained and the relationship among some parameters of velocity, dynamic load and tire pressure and rolling resistance were evaluated. Materials and Methods: The soil bin and single wheel tester of Biosystem Engineering Mechanics Department of Urmia University was used in this study. This soil bin has 24 m length, 2 m width and 1 m depth including a single-wheel tester and the carrier. Tester consists of four horizontal arms and a vertical arm to vertical load. The S-shaped load cells were employed in horizontal arms with a load capacity of 200 kg and another 500 kg in the vertical arm was embedded. The tire used in this study was a general pneumatic tire (Good year 9.5L-14, 6 ply In this study, artificial neural networks were used for optimizing the rolling resistance by 35 neurons, 6 inputs and 1 output choices. Comparison of neural network models according to the mean square error and correlation coefficient was used. In addition, 60% of the data on training, 20% on test and finally 20% of the credits was allocated to the validation and Output parameter of the neural network model has determined the tire rolling resistance. Finally, this study predicts the effects of changing parameters of tire pressure, vertical load and velocity on rolling resistance using a trained neural network. Results and Discussion: Based on obtained error of Levenberg- Marquardt algorithm, neural network with 35 neurons in the hidden layer with sigmoid tangent function and one neuron in the output layer with linear actuator function were selected. The regression coefficient of tested network is 0.92 which seems acceptable, considering the complexity of the studied process. Some of the input parameters to the network are speed, pressure and vertical load which their relationship with the rolling

  5. Artificial neural network optimisation for monthly average daily global solar radiation prediction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Alsina, Emanuel Federico; Bortolini, Marco; Gamberi, Mauro; Regattieri, Alberto

    2016-01-01

    Highlights: • Prediction of the monthly average daily global solar radiation over Italy. • Multi-location Artificial Neural Network (ANN) model: 45 locations considered. • Optimal ANN configuration with 7 input climatologic/geographical parameters. • Statistical indicators: MAPE, NRMSE, MPBE. - Abstract: The availability of reliable climatologic data is essential for multiple purposes in a wide set of anthropic activities and operative sectors. Frequently direct measures present spatial and temporal lacks so that predictive approaches become of interest. This paper focuses on the prediction of the Monthly Average Daily Global Solar Radiation (MADGSR) over Italy using Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs). Data from 45 locations compose the multi-location ANN training and testing sets. For each location, 13 input parameters are considered, including the geographical coordinates and the monthly values for the most frequently adopted climatologic parameters. A subset of 17 locations is used for ANN training, while the testing step is against data from the remaining 28 locations. Furthermore, the Automatic Relevance Determination method (ARD) is used to point out the most relevant input for the accurate MADGSR prediction. The ANN best configuration includes 7 parameters, only, i.e. Top of Atmosphere (TOA) radiation, day length, number of rainy days and average rainfall, latitude and altitude. The correlation performances, expressed through statistical indicators as the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE), range between 1.67% and 4.25%, depending on the number and type of the chosen input, representing a good solution compared to the current standards.

  6. Towards building a neural network model for predicting pile static load test curves

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alzo’ubi A. K.

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available In the United Arab Emirates, Continuous Flight Auger piles are the most widely used type of deep foundation. To test the pile behaviour, the Static Load Test is routinely conducted in the field by increasing the dead load while monitoring the displacement. Although the test is reliable, it is expensive to conduct. This test is usually conducted in the UAE to verify the pile capacity and displacement as the load increase and decreases in two cycles. In this paper we will utilize the Artificial Neural Network approach to build a model that can predict a complete Static Load Pile test. We will show that by integrating the pile configuration, soil properties, and ground water table in one artificial neural network model, the Static Load Test can be predicted with confidence. We believe that based on this approach, the model is able to predict the entire pile load test from start to end. The suggested approach is an excellent tool to reduce the cost associated with such expensive tests or to predict pile’s performance ahead of the actual test.

  7. A neural network - based algorithm for predicting stone - free status after ESWL therapy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seckiner, Ilker; Seckiner, Serap; Sen, Haluk; Bayrak, Omer; Dogan, Kazim; Erturhan, Sakip

    2017-01-01

    The prototype artificial neural network (ANN) model was developed using data from patients with renal stone, in order to predict stone-free status and to help in planning treatment with Extracorporeal Shock Wave Lithotripsy (ESWL) for kidney stones. Data were collected from the 203 patients including gender, single or multiple nature of the stone, location of the stone, infundibulopelvic angle primary or secondary nature of the stone, status of hydronephrosis, stone size after ESWL, age, size, skin to stone distance, stone density and creatinine, for eleven variables. Regression analysis and the ANN method were applied to predict treatment success using the same series of data. Subsequently, patients were divided into three groups by neural network software, in order to implement the ANN: training group (n=139), validation group (n=32), and the test group (n=32). ANN analysis demonstrated that the prediction accuracy of the stone-free rate was 99.25% in the training group, 85.48% in the validation group, and 88.70% in the test group. Successful results were obtained to predict the stone-free rate, with the help of the ANN model designed by using a series of data collected from real patients in whom ESWL was implemented to help in planning treatment for kidney stones. Copyright® by the International Brazilian Journal of Urology.

  8. Bankruptcy prediction for credit risk using neural networks: a survey and new results.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Atiya, A F

    2001-01-01

    The prediction of corporate bankruptcies is an important and widely studied topic since it can have significant impact on bank lending decisions and profitability. This work presents two contributions. First we review the topic of bankruptcy prediction, with emphasis on neural-network (NN) models. Second, we develop an NN bankruptcy prediction model. Inspired by one of the traditional credit risk models developed by Merton (1974), we propose novel indicators for the NN system. We show that the use of these indicators in addition to traditional financial ratio indicators provides a significant improvement in the (out-of-sample) prediction accuracy (from 81.46% to 85.5% for a three-year-ahead forecast).

  9. Beam-column joint shear prediction using hybridized deep learning neural network with genetic algorithm

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mundher Yaseen, Zaher; Abdulmohsin Afan, Haitham; Tran, Minh-Tung

    2018-04-01

    Scientifically evidenced that beam-column joints are a critical point in the reinforced concrete (RC) structure under the fluctuation loads effects. In this novel hybrid data-intelligence model developed to predict the joint shear behavior of exterior beam-column structure frame. The hybrid data-intelligence model is called genetic algorithm integrated with deep learning neural network model (GA-DLNN). The genetic algorithm is used as prior modelling phase for the input approximation whereas the DLNN predictive model is used for the prediction phase. To demonstrate this structural problem, experimental data is collected from the literature that defined the dimensional and specimens’ properties. The attained findings evidenced the efficitveness of the hybrid GA-DLNN in modelling beam-column joint shear problem. In addition, the accurate prediction achived with less input variables owing to the feasibility of the evolutionary phase.

  10. Prediction of the temperature of the atmosphere of the primary containment: comparison between neural networks and polynomial regression

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Alvarez Huerta, A.; Gonzalez Miguelez, R.; Garcia Metola, D.; Noriega Gonzalez, A.

    2011-01-01

    The modelization is carried out through two different techniques, a conventional polynomial regression and other based on an approach by neural networks artificial. He is a comparison between the quality of the forecast would make different models based on the polynomial regression and neural network with generalization by Bayesian regulation, using the indicators of the root of the mean square error and the coefficient of determination, in view of the results, the neural network generates a prediction more accurate and reliable than the polynomial regression.

  11. What are artificial neural networks?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Krogh, Anders

    2008-01-01

    Artificial neural networks have been applied to problems ranging from speech recognition to prediction of protein secondary structure, classification of cancers and gene prediction. How do they work and what might they be good for? Udgivelsesdato: 2008-Feb......Artificial neural networks have been applied to problems ranging from speech recognition to prediction of protein secondary structure, classification of cancers and gene prediction. How do they work and what might they be good for? Udgivelsesdato: 2008-Feb...

  12. Accurate prediction of the dew points of acidic combustion gases by using an artificial neural network model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    ZareNezhad, Bahman; Aminian, Ali

    2011-01-01

    This paper presents a new approach based on using an artificial neural network (ANN) model for predicting the acid dew points of the combustion gases in process and power plants. The most important acidic combustion gases namely, SO 3 , SO 2 , NO 2 , HCl and HBr are considered in this investigation. Proposed Network is trained using the Levenberg-Marquardt back propagation algorithm and the hyperbolic tangent sigmoid activation function is applied to calculate the output values of the neurons of the hidden layer. According to the network's training, validation and testing results, a three layer neural network with nine neurons in the hidden layer is selected as the best architecture for accurate prediction of the acidic combustion gases dew points over wide ranges of acid and moisture concentrations. The proposed neural network model can have significant application in predicting the condensation temperatures of different acid gases to mitigate the corrosion problems in stacks, pollution control devices and energy recovery systems.

  13. Acoustic Emission Detection and Prediction of Fatigue Crack Propagation in Composite Patch Repairs Using Neural Networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Okafor, A. Chukwujekwu; Singh, Navdeep; Singh, Navrag

    2007-01-01

    An aircraft is subjected to severe structural and aerodynamic loads during its service life. These loads can cause damage or weakening of the structure especially for aging military and civilian aircraft, thereby affecting its load carrying capabilities. Hence composite patch repairs are increasingly used to repair damaged aircraft metallic structures to restore its structural efficiency. This paper presents the results of Acoustic Emission (AE) monitoring of crack propagation in 2024-T3 Clad aluminum panels repaired with adhesively bonded octagonal, single sided boron/epoxy composite patch under tension-tension fatigue loading. Crack propagation gages were used to monitor crack initiation. The identified AE sensor features were used to train neural networks for predicting crack length. The results show that AE events are correlated with crack propagation. AE system was able to detect crack propagation even at high noise condition of 10 Hz loading; that crack propagation signals can be differentiated from matrix cracking signals that take place due to fiber breakage in the composite patch. Three back-propagation cascade feed forward networks were trained to predict crack length based on the number of fatigue cycles, AE event number, and both the Fatigue Cycles and AE events, as inputs respectively. Network using both fatigue cycles and AE event number as inputs to predict crack length gave the best results, followed by Network with fatigue cycles as input, while network with just AE events as input had a greater error

  14. Predicting ventriculoperitoneal shunt infection in children with hydrocephalus using artificial neural network.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Habibi, Zohreh; Ertiaei, Abolhasan; Nikdad, Mohammad Sadegh; Mirmohseni, Atefeh Sadat; Afarideh, Mohsen; Heidari, Vahid; Saberi, Hooshang; Rezaei, Abdolreza Sheikh; Nejat, Farideh

    2016-11-01

    The relationships between shunt infection and predictive factors have not been previously investigated using Artificial Neural Network (ANN) model. The aim of this study was to develop an ANN model to predict shunt infection in a group of children with shunted hydrocephalus. Among more than 800 ventriculoperitoneal shunt procedures which had been performed between April 2000 and April 2011, 68 patients with shunt infection and 80 controls that fulfilled a set of meticulous inclusion/exclusion criteria were consecutively enrolled. Univariate analysis was performed for a long list of risk factors, and those with p value < 0.2 were used to create ANN and logistic regression (LR) models. Five variables including birth weight, age at the first shunting, shunt revision, prematurity, and myelomeningocele were significantly associated with shunt infection via univariate analysis, and two other variables (intraventricular hemorrhage and coincided infections) had a p value of less than 0.2. Using these seven input variables, ANN and LR models predicted shunt infection with an accuracy of 83.1 % (AUC; 91.98 %, 95 % CI) and 55.7 % (AUC; 76.5, 95 % CI), respectively. The contribution of the factors in the predictive performance of ANN in descending order was history of shunt revision, low birth weight (under 2000 g), history of prematurity, the age at the first shunt procedure, history of intraventricular hemorrhage, history of myelomeningocele, and coinfection. The findings show that artificial neural networks can predict shunt infection with a high level of accuracy in children with shunted hydrocephalus. Also, the contribution of different risk factors in the prediction of shunt infection can be determined using the trained network.

  15. Artificial neural network prediction of ischemic tissue fate in acute stroke imaging

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Shiliang; Shen, Qiang; Duong, Timothy Q

    2010-01-01

    Multimodal magnetic resonance imaging of acute stroke provides predictive value that can be used to guide stroke therapy. A flexible artificial neural network (ANN) algorithm was developed and applied to predict ischemic tissue fate on three stroke groups: 30-, 60-minute, and permanent middle cerebral artery occlusion in rats. Cerebral blood flow (CBF), apparent diffusion coefficient (ADC), and spin–spin relaxation time constant (T2) were acquired during the acute phase up to 3 hours and again at 24 hours followed by histology. Infarct was predicted on a pixel-by-pixel basis using only acute (30-minute) stroke data. In addition, neighboring pixel information and infarction incidence were also incorporated into the ANN model to improve prediction accuracy. Receiver-operating characteristic analysis was used to quantify prediction accuracy. The major findings were the following: (1) CBF alone poorly predicted the final infarct across three experimental groups; (2) ADC alone adequately predicted the infarct; (3) CBF+ADC improved the prediction accuracy; (4) inclusion of neighboring pixel information and infarction incidence further improved the prediction accuracy; and (5) prediction was more accurate for permanent occlusion, followed by 60- and 30-minute occlusion. The ANN predictive model could thus provide a flexible and objective framework for clinicians to evaluate stroke treatment options on an individual patient basis. PMID:20424631

  16. Surface roughness prediction of particulate composites using artificial neural networks in turning operation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohammad Ramezani

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available A number of factors, e.g. cutting speed and feed rate, affect the surface roughness in machining process. In this paper, an Artificial Neural Network model was used to forecast surface roughness with related inputs, including cutting speed and feed rate. The output of the ANN model input parameters related to the machined surface roughness parameters. In this research, twelve samples of experimental data were used to train the network. Moreover, four other experimental tests were implemented to test the network. The study concludes that ANN was a reliable and accurate method for predicting machining parameters in CNC turning operation of Particulate Reinforced Aluminum Matrix Composites (PAMCs specimens with 0%, 5%, 10% and 15% filler. The aim of this work is to decrease the production cost and consequently increase the production rate of these materials for industry without any trial and error method procedure.

  17. Predicting behavior change from persuasive messages using neural representational similarity and social network analyses.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pegors, Teresa K; Tompson, Steven; O'Donnell, Matthew Brook; Falk, Emily B

    2017-08-15

    Neural activity in medial prefrontal cortex (MPFC), identified as engaging in self-related processing, predicts later health behavior change. However, it is unknown to what extent individual differences in neural representation of content and lived experience influence this brain-behavior relationship. We examined whether the strength of content-specific representations during persuasive messaging relates to later behavior change, and whether these relationships change as a function of individuals' social network composition. In our study, smokers viewed anti-smoking messages while undergoing fMRI and we measured changes in their smoking behavior one month later. Using representational similarity analyses, we found that the degree to which message content (i.e. health, social, or valence information) was represented in a self-related processing MPFC region was associated with later smoking behavior, with increased representations of negatively valenced (risk) information corresponding to greater message-consistent behavior change. Furthermore, the relationship between representations and behavior change depended on social network composition: smokers who had proportionally fewer smokers in their network showed increases in smoking behavior when social or health content was strongly represented in MPFC, whereas message-consistent behavior (i.e., less smoking) was more likely for those with proportionally more smokers in their social network who represented social or health consequences more strongly. These results highlight the dynamic relationship between representations in MPFC and key outcomes such as health behavior change; a complete understanding of the role of MPFC in motivation and action should take into account individual differences in neural representation of stimulus attributes and social context variables such as social network composition. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  18. Modelling and Prediction of Photovoltaic Power Output Using Artificial Neural Networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aminmohammad Saberian

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents a solar power modelling method using artificial neural networks (ANNs. Two neural network structures, namely, general regression neural network (GRNN feedforward back propagation (FFBP, have been used to model a photovoltaic panel output power and approximate the generated power. Both neural networks have four inputs and one output. The inputs are maximum temperature, minimum temperature, mean temperature, and irradiance; the output is the power. The data used in this paper started from January 1, 2006, until December 31, 2010. The five years of data were split into two parts: 2006–2008 and 2009-2010; the first part was used for training and the second part was used for testing the neural networks. A mathematical equation is used to estimate the generated power. At the end, both of these networks have shown good modelling performance; however, FFBP has shown a better performance comparing with GRNN.

  19. Distributed Learning, Recognition, and Prediction by ART and ARTMAP Neural Networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carpenter, Gail A.

    1997-11-01

    A class of adaptive resonance theory (ART) models for learning, recognition, and prediction with arbitrarily distributed code representations is introduced. Distributed ART neural networks combine the stable fast learning capabilities of winner-take-all ART systems with the noise tolerance and code compression capabilities of multilayer perceptrons. With a winner-take-all code, the unsupervised model dART reduces to fuzzy ART and the supervised model dARTMAP reduces to fuzzy ARTMAP. With a distributed code, these networks automatically apportion learned changes according to the degree of activation of each coding node, which permits fast as well as slow learning without catastrophic forgetting. Distributed ART models replace the traditional neural network path weight with a dynamic weight equal to the rectified difference between coding node activation and an adaptive threshold. Thresholds increase monotonically during learning according to a principle of atrophy due to disuse. However, monotonic change at the synaptic level manifests itself as bidirectional change at the dynamic level, where the result of adaptation resembles long-term potentiation (LTP) for single-pulse or low frequency test inputs but can resemble long-term depression (LTD) for higher frequency test inputs. This paradoxical behavior is traced to dual computational properties of phasic and tonic coding signal components. A parallel distributed match-reset-search process also helps stabilize memory. Without the match-reset-search system, dART becomes a type of distributed competitive learning network.

  20. A Neural Network based Approach for Predicting Customer Churn in Cellular Network Services

    OpenAIRE

    Sharma, Anuj; Panigrahi, Dr. Prabin Kumar

    2013-01-01

    Marketing literature states that it is more costly to engage a new customer than to retain an existing loyal customer. Churn prediction models are developed by academics and practitioners to effectively manage and control customer churn in order to retain existing customers. As churn management is an important activity for companies to retain loyal customers, the ability to correctly predict customer churn is necessary. As the cellular network services market becoming more competitive, custom...

  1. Detecting and Predicting Muscle Fatigue during Typing By SEMG Signal Processing and Artificial Neural Networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Elham Ghoochani

    2011-03-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: Repetitive strain injuries are one of the most prevalent problems in occupational diseases. Repetition, vibration and bad postures of the extremities are physical risk factors related to work that can cause chronic musculoskeletal disorders. Repetitive work on a computer with low level contraction requires the posture to be maintained for a long time, which can cause muscle fatigue. Muscle fatigue in shoulders and neck is one of the most prevalent problems reported with computer users especially during typing. Surface electromyography (SEMG signals are used for detecting muscle fatigue as a non-invasive method. Material and Methods: Nine healthy females volunteered for signal recoding during typing. EMG signals were recorded from the trapezius muscle, which is subjected to muscle fatigue during typing.  After signal analysis and feature extraction, detecting and predicting muscle fatigue was performed by using the MLP artificial neural network. Results: Recorded signals were analyzed in time and frequency domains for feature extraction. Results of classification showed that the MLP neural network can detect and predict muscle fatigue during typing with 80.79 % ± 1.04% accuracy. Conclusion: Intelligent classification and prediction of muscle fatigue can have many applications in human factors engineering (ergonomics, rehabilitation engineering and biofeedback equipment for mitigating the injuries of repetitive works.

  2. Prediction of municipal water production in touristic Mecca City in Saudi Arabia using neural networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    AbdelHamid Ajbar

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Accurate forecast of municipal water production is critically important for arid and oil rich countries such as Saudi Arabia which depend on costly desalination plants to satisfy the growing water demand. Achieving the desired prediction accuracy is a challenging task since the forecast model should take into consideration a variety of factors such as economic development, climate conditions and population growth. The task is further complicated given that Mecca city is visited regularly by large numbers during specific months in the year due to religious reasons. This study develops a neural network model for forecasting the monthly and annual water demand for Mecca city, Saudi Arabia. The proposed model used historic records of water production and estimated visitors’ distribution to calibrate a neural network model for water demand forecast. The explanatory variables included annually-varying variables such as household income, persons per household, and city population, along with monthly-varying variables such as expected number of visitors each month and maximum monthly temperature. The NN prediction outperforms that of a regular econometric model. The latter is adjusted such that it can provide monthly and annual predictions.

  3. Statistical Modeling and Prediction for Tourism Economy Using Dendritic Neural Network.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, Ying; Wang, Yirui; Gao, Shangce; Tang, Zheng

    2017-01-01

    With the impact of global internationalization, tourism economy has also been a rapid development. The increasing interest aroused by more advanced forecasting methods leads us to innovate forecasting methods. In this paper, the seasonal trend autoregressive integrated moving averages with dendritic neural network model (SA-D model) is proposed to perform the tourism demand forecasting. First, we use the seasonal trend autoregressive integrated moving averages model (SARIMA model) to exclude the long-term linear trend and then train the residual data by the dendritic neural network model and make a short-term prediction. As the result showed in this paper, the SA-D model can achieve considerably better predictive performances. In order to demonstrate the effectiveness of the SA-D model, we also use the data that other authors used in the other models and compare the results. It also proved that the SA-D model achieved good predictive performances in terms of the normalized mean square error, absolute percentage of error, and correlation coefficient.

  4. Predicting all-cause risk of 30-day hospital readmission using artificial neural networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jamei, Mehdi; Nisnevich, Aleksandr; Wetchler, Everett; Sudat, Sylvia; Liu, Eric

    2017-01-01

    Avoidable hospital readmissions not only contribute to the high costs of healthcare in the US, but also have an impact on the quality of care for patients. Large scale adoption of Electronic Health Records (EHR) has created the opportunity to proactively identify patients with high risk of hospital readmission, and apply effective interventions to mitigate that risk. To that end, in the past, numerous machine-learning models have been employed to predict the risk of 30-day hospital readmission. However, the need for an accurate and real-time predictive model, suitable for hospital setting applications still exists. Here, using data from more than 300,000 hospital stays in California from Sutter Health's EHR system, we built and tested an artificial neural network (NN) model based on Google's TensorFlow library. Through comparison with other traditional and non-traditional models, we demonstrated that neural networks are great candidates to capture the complexity and interdependency of various data fields in EHRs. LACE, the current industry standard, showed a precision (PPV) of 0.20 in identifying high-risk patients in our database. In contrast, our NN model yielded a PPV of 0.24, which is a 20% improvement over LACE. Additionally, we discussed the predictive power of Social Determinants of Health (SDoH) data, and presented a simple cost analysis to assist hospitalists in implementing helpful and cost-effective post-discharge interventions.

  5. Prediction of Irradiation Damage by Artificial Neural Network for Austenitic Stainless Steels

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, Won Sam; Kim, Dae Whan; Hwang, Seong Sik

    2007-01-01

    The internal structures of pressurized water reactors (PWR) located close to the reactor core are used to support the fuel assemblies, to maintain the alignment between assemblies and the control bars and to canalize the primary water. In general these internal structures consist of baffle plates in solution annealed (SA) 304 stainless steel and baffle bolts in cold worked (CW) 316 stainless steel. These components undergo a large neutron flux at temperatures between 280 and 380 .deg. C. Well-controlled irradiation-assisted stress corrosion cracking (IASCC) data from properly irradiated, and properly characterized, materials are sorely lacking due to the experimental difficulties and financial limitations related to working with highly activated materials. In this work, we tried to apply the artificial neural network (ANN) approach, predicted the susceptibility to an IASCC for an austenitic stainless steel SA 304 and CW 316. G.S. Was and J.-P. Massoud experimental data are used. Because there is fewer experimental data, we need to prediction for radiation damage under the internal structure of PWR. Besides, we compared experimental data with prediction data by the artificial neural network

  6. Predicting all-cause risk of 30-day hospital readmission using artificial neural networks.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mehdi Jamei

    Full Text Available Avoidable hospital readmissions not only contribute to the high costs of healthcare in the US, but also have an impact on the quality of care for patients. Large scale adoption of Electronic Health Records (EHR has created the opportunity to proactively identify patients with high risk of hospital readmission, and apply effective interventions to mitigate that risk. To that end, in the past, numerous machine-learning models have been employed to predict the risk of 30-day hospital readmission. However, the need for an accurate and real-time predictive model, suitable for hospital setting applications still exists. Here, using data from more than 300,000 hospital stays in California from Sutter Health's EHR system, we built and tested an artificial neural network (NN model based on Google's TensorFlow library. Through comparison with other traditional and non-traditional models, we demonstrated that neural networks are great candidates to capture the complexity and interdependency of various data fields in EHRs. LACE, the current industry standard, showed a precision (PPV of 0.20 in identifying high-risk patients in our database. In contrast, our NN model yielded a PPV of 0.24, which is a 20% improvement over LACE. Additionally, we discussed the predictive power of Social Determinants of Health (SDoH data, and presented a simple cost analysis to assist hospitalists in implementing helpful and cost-effective post-discharge interventions.

  7. Statistical Modeling and Prediction for Tourism Economy Using Dendritic Neural Network

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ying Yu

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available With the impact of global internationalization, tourism economy has also been a rapid development. The increasing interest aroused by more advanced forecasting methods leads us to innovate forecasting methods. In this paper, the seasonal trend autoregressive integrated moving averages with dendritic neural network model (SA-D model is proposed to perform the tourism demand forecasting. First, we use the seasonal trend autoregressive integrated moving averages model (SARIMA model to exclude the long-term linear trend and then train the residual data by the dendritic neural network model and make a short-term prediction. As the result showed in this paper, the SA-D model can achieve considerably better predictive performances. In order to demonstrate the effectiveness of the SA-D model, we also use the data that other authors used in the other models and compare the results. It also proved that the SA-D model achieved good predictive performances in terms of the normalized mean square error, absolute percentage of error, and correlation coefficient.

  8. Predicting non-melanoma skin cancer via a multi-parameterized artificial neural network.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roffman, David; Hart, Gregory; Girardi, Michael; Ko, Christine J; Deng, Jun

    2018-01-26

    Ultraviolet radiation (UVR) exposure and family history are major associated risk factors for the development of non-melanoma skin cancer (NMSC). The objective of this study was to develop and validate a multi-parameterized artificial neural network based on available personal health information for early detection of NMSC with high sensitivity and specificity, even in the absence of known UVR exposure and family history. The 1997-2015 NHIS adult survey data used to train and validate our neural network (NN) comprised of 2,056 NMSC and 460,574 non-cancer cases. We extracted 13 parameters for our NN: gender, age, BMI, diabetic status, smoking status, emphysema, asthma, race, Hispanic ethnicity, hypertension, heart diseases, vigorous exercise habits, and history of stroke. This study yielded an area under the ROC curve of 0.81 and 0.81 for training and validation, respectively. Our results (training sensitivity 88.5% and specificity 62.2%, validation sensitivity 86.2% and specificity 62.7%) were comparable to a previous study of basal and squamous cell carcinoma prediction that also included UVR exposure and family history information. These results indicate that our NN is robust enough to make predictions, suggesting that we have identified novel associations and potential predictive parameters of NMSC.

  9. Prediction of zeolite-cement-sand unconfined compressive strength using polynomial neural network

    Science.gov (United States)

    MolaAbasi, H.; Shooshpasha, I.

    2016-04-01

    The improvement of local soils with cement and zeolite can provide great benefits, including strengthening slopes in slope stability problems, stabilizing problematic soils and preventing soil liquefaction. Recently, dosage methodologies are being developed for improved soils based on a rational criterion as it exists in concrete technology. There are numerous earlier studies showing the possibility of relating Unconfined Compressive Strength (UCS) and Cemented sand (CS) parameters (voids/cement ratio) as a power function fits. Taking into account the fact that the existing equations are incapable of estimating UCS for zeolite cemented sand mixture (ZCS) well, artificial intelligence methods are used for forecasting them. Polynomial-type neural network is applied to estimate the UCS from more simply determined index properties such as zeolite and cement content, porosity as well as curing time. In order to assess the merits of the proposed approach, a total number of 216 unconfined compressive tests have been done. A comparison is carried out between the experimentally measured UCS with the predictions in order to evaluate the performance of the current method. The results demonstrate that generalized polynomial-type neural network has a great ability for prediction of the UCS. At the end sensitivity analysis of the polynomial model is applied to study the influence of input parameters on model output. The sensitivity analysis reveals that cement and zeolite content have significant influence on predicting UCS.

  10. The fatigue life prediction of aluminium alloy using genetic algorithm and neural network

    Science.gov (United States)

    Susmikanti, Mike

    2013-09-01

    The behavior of the fatigue life of the industrial materials is very important. In many cases, the material with experiencing fatigue life cannot be avoided, however, there are many ways to control their behavior. Many investigations of the fatigue life phenomena of alloys have been done, but it is high cost and times consuming computation. This paper report the modeling and simulation approaches to predict the fatigue life behavior of Aluminum Alloys and resolves some problems of computation. First, the simulation using genetic algorithm was utilized to optimize the load to obtain the stress values. These results can be used to provide N-cycle fatigue life of the material. Furthermore, the experimental data was applied as input data in the neural network learning, while the samples data were applied for testing of the training data. Finally, the multilayer perceptron algorithm is applied to predict whether the given data sets in accordance with the fatigue life of the alloy. To achieve rapid convergence, the Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm was also employed. The simulations results shows that the fatigue behaviors of aluminum under pressure can be predicted. In addition, implementation of neural networks successfully identified a model for material fatigue life.

  11. Long short-term memory neural network for air pollutant concentration predictions: Method development and evaluation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Li, Xiang; Peng, Ling; Yao, Xiaojing; Cui, Shaolong; Hu, Yuan; You, Chengzeng; Chi, Tianhe

    2017-01-01

    Air pollutant concentration forecasting is an effective method of protecting public health by providing an early warning against harmful air pollutants. However, existing methods of air pollutant concentration prediction fail to effectively model long-term dependencies, and most neglect spatial correlations. In this paper, a novel long short-term memory neural network extended (LSTME) model that inherently considers spatiotemporal correlations is proposed for air pollutant concentration prediction. Long short-term memory (LSTM) layers were used to automatically extract inherent useful features from historical air pollutant data, and auxiliary data, including meteorological data and time stamp data, were merged into the proposed model to enhance the performance. Hourly PM 2.5 (particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter less than or equal to 2.5 μm) concentration data collected at 12 air quality monitoring stations in Beijing City from Jan/01/2014 to May/28/2016 were used to validate the effectiveness of the proposed LSTME model. Experiments were performed using the spatiotemporal deep learning (STDL) model, the time delay neural network (TDNN) model, the autoregressive moving average (ARMA) model, the support vector regression (SVR) model, and the traditional LSTM NN model, and a comparison of the results demonstrated that the LSTME model is superior to the other statistics-based models. Additionally, the use of auxiliary data improved model performance. For the one-hour prediction tasks, the proposed model performed well and exhibited a mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) of 11.93%. In addition, we conducted multiscale predictions over different time spans and achieved satisfactory performance, even for 13–24 h prediction tasks (MAPE = 31.47%). - Highlights: • Regional air pollutant concentration shows an obvious spatiotemporal correlation. • Our prediction model presents superior performance. • Climate data and metadata can significantly

  12. Artificial neural network model for prediction of safety performance indicators goals in nuclear plants

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Souto, Kelling C.; Nunes, Wallace W. [Instituto Federal de Educacao, Ciencia e Tecnologia do Rio de Janeiro, Nilopolis, RJ (Brazil). Lab. de Aplicacoes Computacionais; Machado, Marcelo D., E-mail: dornemd@eletronuclear.gov.b [ELETROBRAS Termonuclear S.A. (ELETRONUCLEAR), Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil). Gerencia de Combustivel Nuclear - GCN.T

    2011-07-01

    Safety performance indicators have been developed to provide a quantitative indication of the performance and safety in various industry sectors. These indexes can provide assess to aspects ranging from production, design, and human performance up to management issues in accordance with policy, objectives and goals of the company. The use of safety performance indicators in nuclear power plants around the world is a reality. However, it is necessary to periodically set goal values. Such goals are targets relating to each of the indicators to be achieved by the plant over a predetermined period of operation. The current process of defining these goals is carried out by experts in a subjective way, based on actual data from the plant, and comparison with global indices. Artificial neural networks are computational techniques that present a mathematical model inspired by the neural structure of intelligent organisms that acquire knowledge through experience. This paper proposes an artificial neural network model aimed at predicting values of goals to be used in the evaluation of safety performance indicators for nuclear power plants. (author)

  13. Artificial neural network model for prediction of safety performance indicators goals in nuclear plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Souto, Kelling C.; Nunes, Wallace W.; Machado, Marcelo D.

    2011-01-01

    Safety performance indicators have been developed to provide a quantitative indication of the performance and safety in various industry sectors. These indexes can provide assess to aspects ranging from production, design, and human performance up to management issues in accordance with policy, objectives and goals of the company. The use of safety performance indicators in nuclear power plants around the world is a reality. However, it is necessary to periodically set goal values. Such goals are targets relating to each of the indicators to be achieved by the plant over a predetermined period of operation. The current process of defining these goals is carried out by experts in a subjective way, based on actual data from the plant, and comparison with global indices. Artificial neural networks are computational techniques that present a mathematical model inspired by the neural structure of intelligent organisms that acquire knowledge through experience. This paper proposes an artificial neural network model aimed at predicting values of goals to be used in the evaluation of safety performance indicators for nuclear power plants. (author)

  14. Morphological neural networks

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ritter, G.X.; Sussner, P. [Univ. of Florida, Gainesville, FL (United States)

    1996-12-31

    The theory of artificial neural networks has been successfully applied to a wide variety of pattern recognition problems. In this theory, the first step in computing the next state of a neuron or in performing the next layer neural network computation involves the linear operation of multiplying neural values by their synaptic strengths and adding the results. Thresholding usually follows the linear operation in order to provide for nonlinearity of the network. In this paper we introduce a novel class of neural networks, called morphological neural networks, in which the operations of multiplication and addition are replaced by addition and maximum (or minimum), respectively. By taking the maximum (or minimum) of sums instead of the sum of products, morphological network computation is nonlinear before thresholding. As a consequence, the properties of morphological neural networks are drastically different than those of traditional neural network models. In this paper we consider some of these differences and provide some particular examples of morphological neural network.

  15. Hot metal temperature prediction by neural networks in the blast furnace

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cantera, C.; Jimenez, J.; Varela, I.; Formoso, A.

    2002-01-01

    Based on a simplified model, the underlying temperature criteria is proposed as a method to study the temperature trends in a blast furnace. As an application, a neural network able to forecast hot metal temperatures from 2 to 16 h in advance (with decreasing precision) has been built. This neural network has been designed to work at real time in a production plant. (Author)

  16. PREDICTION OF BOD AND COD OF A REFINERY WASTEWATER USING MULTILAYER ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORKS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eldon Raj Rene

    2008-06-01

    Full Text Available In the recent past, artificial neural networks (ANNs have shown the ability to learn and capture non-linear static or dynamic behaviour among variables based on the given set of data. Since the knowledge of internal procedure is not necessary, the modelling can take place with minimum previous knowledge about the process through proper training of the network. In the present study, 12 ANN based models were proposed to predict the Biochemical Oxygen Demand (BOD5 and Chemical Oxygen Demand (COD concentrations of wastewater generated from the effluent treatment plant of a petrochemical industry. By employing the standard back error propagation (BEP algorithm, the network was trained with 103 data points for water quality indices such as Total Suspended Solids (TSS, Total Dissolved Solids (TDS, Phenol concentration, Ammoniacal Nitrogen (AMN, Total Organic Carbon (TOC and Kjeldahl’s Nitrogen (KJN to predict BOD and COD. After appropriate training, the network was tested with a separate test data and the best model was chosen based on the sum square error (training and percentage average relative error (% ARE for testing. The results from this study reveal that ANNs can be accurate and efficacious in predicting unknown concentrations of water quality parameters through its versatile training process.

  17. DELAMINATION PREDICTION IN DRILLING OF CFRP COMPOSITES USING ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORK

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. PALANIKUMAR

    2011-04-01

    Full Text Available Carbon fibre reinforced plastic (CFRP materials play a major role in the applications of aeronautic, aerospace, sporting and transportation industries. Machining is indispensible and hence drilling of CFRP materials is considered in this present study with respect to spindle speed in rpm, drill size in mm and feed in mm/min. Delamination is one of the major defects to be dealt with. The experiments are carried out using computer numerical control machine and the results are applied to an artificial neural network (ANN for the prediction of delamination factor at the exit plane of the CFRP material. It is found that ANN model predicts the delamination for any given set of machining parameters with a maximum error of 0.81% and a minimum error of 0.03%. Thus an ANN model is highly suitable for the prediction of delamination in CFRP materials.

  18. Unscented Kalman Filter-Trained Neural Networks for Slip Model Prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Zhencai; Wang, Yang; Liu, Zhen

    2016-01-01

    The purpose of this work is to investigate the accurate trajectory tracking control of a wheeled mobile robot (WMR) based on the slip model prediction. Generally, a nonholonomic WMR may increase the slippage risk, when traveling on outdoor unstructured terrain (such as longitudinal and lateral slippage of wheels). In order to control a WMR stably and accurately under the effect of slippage, an unscented Kalman filter and neural networks (NNs) are applied to estimate the slip model in real time. This method exploits the model approximating capabilities of nonlinear state–space NN, and the unscented Kalman filter is used to train NN’s weights online. The slip parameters can be estimated and used to predict the time series of deviation velocity, which can be used to compensate control inputs of a WMR. The results of numerical simulation show that the desired trajectory tracking control can be performed by predicting the nonlinear slip model. PMID:27467703

  19. Analysis backpropagation methods with neural network for prediction of children's ability in psychomotoric

    Science.gov (United States)

    Izhari, F.; Dhany, H. W.; Zarlis, M.; Sutarman

    2018-03-01

    A good age in optimizing aspects of development is at the age of 4-6 years, namely with psychomotor development. Psychomotor is broader, more difficult to monitor but has a meaningful value for the child's life because it directly affects his behavior and deeds. Therefore, there is a problem to predict the child's ability level based on psychomotor. This analysis uses backpropagation method analysis with artificial neural network to predict the ability of the child on the psychomotor aspect by generating predictions of the child's ability on psychomotor and testing there is a mean squared error (MSE) value at the end of the training of 0.001. There are 30% of children aged 4-6 years have a good level of psychomotor ability, excellent, less good, and good enough.

  20. The prediction of the residual life of electromechanical equipment based on the artificial neural network

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhukovskiy, Yu L.; Korolev, N. A.; Babanova, I. S.; Boikov, A. V.

    2017-10-01

    This article is devoted to the prediction of the residual life based on an estimate of the technical state of the induction motor. The proposed system allows to increase the accuracy and completeness of diagnostics by using an artificial neural network (ANN), and also identify and predict faulty states of an electrical equipment in dynamics. The results of the proposed system for estimation the technical condition are probability technical state diagrams and a quantitative evaluation of the residual life, taking into account electrical, vibrational, indirect parameters and detected defects. Based on the evaluation of the technical condition and the prediction of the residual life, a decision is made to change the control of the operating and maintenance modes of the electric motors.

  1. Introducing ab initio based neural networks for transition-rate prediction in kinetic Monte Carlo simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Messina, Luca; Castin, Nicolas; Domain, Christophe; Olsson, Pär

    2017-02-01

    The quality of kinetic Monte Carlo (KMC) simulations of microstructure evolution in alloys relies on the parametrization of point-defect migration rates, which are complex functions of the local chemical composition and can be calculated accurately with ab initio methods. However, constructing reliable models that ensure the best possible transfer of physical information from ab initio to KMC is a challenging task. This work presents an innovative approach, where the transition rates are predicted by artificial neural networks trained on a database of 2000 migration barriers, obtained with density functional theory (DFT) in place of interatomic potentials. The method is tested on copper precipitation in thermally aged iron alloys, by means of a hybrid atomistic-object KMC model. For the object part of the model, the stability and mobility properties of copper-vacancy clusters are analyzed by means of independent atomistic KMC simulations, driven by the same neural networks. The cluster diffusion coefficients and mean free paths are found to increase with size, confirming the dominant role of coarsening of medium- and large-sized clusters in the precipitation kinetics. The evolution under thermal aging is in better agreement with experiments with respect to a previous interatomic-potential model, especially concerning the experiment time scales. However, the model underestimates the solubility of copper in iron due to the excessively high solution energy predicted by the chosen DFT method. Nevertheless, this work proves the capability of neural networks to transfer complex ab initio physical properties to higher-scale models, and facilitates the extension to systems with increasing chemical complexity, setting the ground for reliable microstructure evolution simulations in a wide range of alloys and applications.

  2. Degradation Prediction Model Based on a Neural Network with Dynamic Windows

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Xinghui; Xiao, Lei; Kang, Jianshe

    2015-01-01

    Tracking degradation of mechanical components is very critical for effective maintenance decision making. Remaining useful life (RUL) estimation is a widely used form of degradation prediction. RUL prediction methods when enough run-to-failure condition monitoring data can be used have been fully researched, but for some high reliability components, it is very difficult to collect run-to-failure condition monitoring data, i.e., from normal to failure. Only a certain number of condition indicators in certain period can be used to estimate RUL. In addition, some existing prediction methods have problems which block RUL estimation due to poor extrapolability. The predicted value converges to a certain constant or fluctuates in certain range. Moreover, the fluctuant condition features also have bad effects on prediction. In order to solve these dilemmas, this paper proposes a RUL prediction model based on neural network with dynamic windows. This model mainly consists of three steps: window size determination by increasing rate, change point detection and rolling prediction. The proposed method has two dominant strengths. One is that the proposed approach does not need to assume the degradation trajectory is subject to a certain distribution. The other is it can adapt to variation of degradation indicators which greatly benefits RUL prediction. Finally, the performance of the proposed RUL prediction model is validated by real field data and simulation data. PMID:25806873

  3. An artificial neural network approach and sensitivity analysis in predicting skeletal muscle forces.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vilimek, Miloslav

    2014-01-01

    This paper presents the use of an artificial neural network (NN) approach for predicting the muscle forces around the elbow joint. The main goal was to create an artificial NN which could predict the musculotendon forces for any general muscle without significant errors. The input parameters for the network were morphological and anatomical musculotendon parameters, plus an activation level experimentally measured during a flexion/extension movement in the elbow. The muscle forces calculated by the 'Virtual Muscle System' provide the output. The cross-correlation coefficient expressing the ability of an artificial NN to predict the "true" force was in the range 0.97-0.98. A sensitivity analysis was used to eliminate the less sensitive inputs, and the final number of inputs for a sufficient prediction was nine. A variant of an artificial NN for a single specific muscle was also studied. The artificial NN for one specific muscle gives better results than a network for general muscles. This method is a good alternative to other approaches to calculation of muscle force.

  4. The Evolution of a Malignancy Risk Prediction Model for Thyroid Nodules Using the Artificial Neural Network

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shahram Paydar

    2016-01-01

    fine needle aspiration and surgical histopathology results. The results matched in 63.5% of subjects. On the other hand, fine needle aspiration biopsy results falsely predicted malignant thyroid nodules in 16% of cases (false-negative. In 20.5% of subjects, fine needle aspiration was falsely positive for thyroid malignancy. The Resilient back Propagation (RP training algorithm lead to acceptable accuracy in prediction for the designed artificial neural network (64.66% by the cross- validation method. Under the cross-validation method, a back propagation algorithm that used the resilient back propagation protocol - the accuracy in prediction for the trained artificial neural network was 64.66%. Conclusion: An extensive bio-statistically validated artificial neural network of certain clinical, paraclinical and individual given inputs (predictors has the capability to stratify the malignancy risk of a thyroid nodule in order to individualize patient care. This risk assessment model (tool can virtually minimize unnecessary diagnostic thyroid surgeries as well as FNA misleading.

  5. Predicting hourly cooling load in the building: A comparison of support vector machine and different artificial neural networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Li Qiong; Meng Qinglin; Cai Jiejin; Yoshino, Hiroshi; Mochida, Akashi

    2009-01-01

    This study presents four modeling techniques for the prediction of hourly cooling load in the building. In addition to the traditional back propagation neural network (BPNN), the radial basis function neural network (RBFNN), general regression neural network (GRNN) and support vector machine (SVM) are considered. All the prediction models have been applied to an office building in Guangzhou, China. Evaluation of the prediction accuracy of the four models is based on the root mean square error (RMSE) and mean relative error (MRE). The simulation results demonstrate that the four discussed models can be effective for building cooling load prediction. The SVM and GRNN methods can achieve better accuracy and generalization than the BPNN and RBFNN methods

  6. Artificial Neural Networks to Predict the Power Output of a PV Panel

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Valerio Lo Brano

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The paper illustrates an adaptive approach based on different topologies of artificial neural networks (ANNs for the power energy output forecasting of photovoltaic (PV modules. The analysis of the PV module’s power output needed detailed local climate data, which was collected by a dedicated weather monitoring system. The Department of Energy, Information Engineering, and Mathematical Models of the University of Palermo (Italy has built up a weather monitoring system that worked together with a data acquisition system. The power output forecast is obtained using three different types of ANNs: a one hidden layer Multilayer perceptron (MLP, a recursive neural network (RNN, and a gamma memory (GM trained with the back propagation. In order to investigate the influence of climate variability on the electricity production, the ANNs were trained using weather data (air temperature, solar irradiance, and wind speed along with historical power output data available for the two test modules. The model validation was performed by comparing model predictions with power output data that were not used for the network's training. The results obtained bear out the suitability of the adopted methodology for the short-term power output forecasting problem and identified the best topology.

  7. Modeling and Prediction of Coal Ash Fusion Temperature based on BP Neural Network

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Miao Suzhen

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Coal ash is the residual generated from combustion of coal. The ash fusion temperature (AFT of coal gives detail information on the suitability of a coal source for gasification procedures, and specifically to which extent ash agglomeration or clinkering is likely to occur within the gasifier. To investigate the contribution of oxides in coal ash to AFT, data of coal ash chemical compositions and Softening Temperature (ST in different regions of China were collected in this work and a BP neural network model was established by XD-APC PLATFORM. In the BP model, the inputs were the ash compositions and the output was the ST. In addition, the ash fusion temperature prediction model was obtained by industrial data and the model was generalized by different industrial data. Compared to empirical formulas, the BP neural network obtained better results. By different tests, the best result and the best configurations for the model were obtained: hidden layer nodes of the BP network was setted as three, the component contents (SiO2, Al2O3, Fe2O3, CaO, MgO were used as inputs and ST was used as output of the model.

  8. Predicting the Deflections of Micromachined Electrostatic Actuators Using Artificial Neural Network (ANN

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hing Wah LEE

    2009-03-01

    Full Text Available In this study, a general purpose Artificial Neural Network (ANN model based on the feed-forward back-propagation (FFBP algorithm has been used to predict the deflections of a micromachined structures actuated electrostatically under different loadings and geometrical parameters. A limited range of simulation results obtained via CoventorWare™ numerical software will be used initially to train the neural network via back-propagation algorithm. The micromachined structures considered in the analyses are diaphragm, fixed-fixed beams and cantilevers. ANN simulation results are compared with results obtained via CoventorWare™ simulations and existing analytical work for validation purpose. The proposed ANN model accurately predicts the deflections of the micromachined structures with great reduction of simulation efforts, establishing the method superiority. This method can be extended for applications in other sensors particularly for modeling sensors applying electrostatic actuation which are difficult in nature due to the inherent non-linearity of the electro-mechanical coupling response.

  9. Elderly fall risk prediction based on a physiological profile approach using artificial neural networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Razmara, Jafar; Zaboli, Mohammad Hassan; Hassankhani, Hadi

    2016-11-01

    Falls play a critical role in older people's life as it is an important source of morbidity and mortality in elders. In this article, elders fall risk is predicted based on a physiological profile approach using a multilayer neural network with back-propagation learning algorithm. The personal physiological profile of 200 elders was collected through a questionnaire and used as the experimental data for learning and testing the neural network. The profile contains a series of simple factors putting elders at risk for falls such as vision abilities, muscle forces, and some other daily activities and grouped into two sets: psychological factors and public factors. The experimental data were investigated to select factors with high impact using principal component analysis. The experimental results show an accuracy of ≈90 percent and ≈87.5 percent for fall prediction among the psychological and public factors, respectively. Furthermore, combining these two datasets yield an accuracy of ≈91 percent that is better than the accuracy of single datasets. The proposed method suggests a set of valid and reliable measurements that can be employed in a range of health care systems and physical therapy to distinguish people who are at risk for falls.

  10. Neural network and SVM classifiers accurately predict lipid binding proteins, irrespective of sequence homology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bakhtiarizadeh, Mohammad Reza; Moradi-Shahrbabak, Mohammad; Ebrahimi, Mansour; Ebrahimie, Esmaeil

    2014-09-07

    Due to the central roles of lipid binding proteins (LBPs) in many biological processes, sequence based identification of LBPs is of great interest. The major challenge is that LBPs are diverse in sequence, structure, and function which results in low accuracy of sequence homology based methods. Therefore, there is a need for developing alternative functional prediction methods irrespective of sequence similarity. To identify LBPs from non-LBPs, the performances of support vector machine (SVM) and neural network were compared in this study. Comprehensive protein features and various techniques were employed to create datasets. Five-fold cross-validation (CV) and independent evaluation (IE) tests were used to assess the validity of the two methods. The results indicated that SVM outperforms neural network. SVM achieved 89.28% (CV) and 89.55% (IE) overall accuracy in identification of LBPs from non-LBPs and 92.06% (CV) and 92.90% (IE) (in average) for classification of different LBPs classes. Increasing the number and the range of extracted protein features as well as optimization of the SVM parameters significantly increased the efficiency of LBPs class prediction in comparison to the only previous report in this field. Altogether, the results showed that the SVM algorithm can be run on broad, computationally calculated protein features and offers a promising tool in detection of LBPs classes. The proposed approach has the potential to integrate and improve the common sequence alignment based methods. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  11. Prediction of Negative Conversion Days of Childhood Nephrotic Syndrome Based on the Improved Backpropagation Neural Network with Momentum

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yi-jun Liu

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Childhood nephrotic syndrome is a chronic disease harmful to growth of children. Scientific and accurate prediction of negative conversion days for children with nephrotic syndrome offers potential benefits for treatment of patients and helps achieve better cure effect. In this study, the improved backpropagation neural network with momentum is used for prediction. Momentum speeds up convergence and maintains the generalization performance of the neural network, and therefore overcomes weaknesses of the standard backpropagation algorithm. The three-tier network structure is constructed. Eight indicators including age, lgG, lgA and lgM, etc. are selected for network inputs. The scientific computing software of MATLAB and its neural network tools are used to create model and predict. The training sample of twenty-eight cases is used to train the neural network. The test sample of six typical cases belonging to six different age groups respectively is used to test the predictive model. The low mean absolute error of predictive results is achieved at 0.83. The experimental results of the small-size sample show that the proposed approach is to some degree applicable for the prediction of negative conversion days of childhood nephrotic syndrome.

  12. Predicting CYP2C19 Catalytic Parameters for Enantioselective Oxidations Using Artificial Neural Networks and a Chirality Code

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hartman, Jessica H.; Cothren, Steven D.; Park, Sun-Ha; Yun, Chul-Ho; Darsey, Jerry A.; Miller, Grover P.

    2013-01-01

    Cytochromes P450 (CYP for isoforms) play a central role in biological processes especially metabolism of chiral molecules; thus, development of computational methods to predict parameters for chiral reactions is important for advancing this field. In this study, we identified the most optimal artificial neural networks using conformation-independent chirality codes to predict CYP2C19 catalytic parameters for enantioselective reactions. Optimization of the neural networks required identifying the most suitable representation of structure among a diverse array of training substrates, normalizing distribution of the corresponding catalytic parameters (kcat, Km, and kcat/Km), and determining the best topology for networks to make predictions. Among different structural descriptors, the use of partial atomic charges according to the CHelpG scheme and inclusion of hydrogens yielded the most optimal artificial neural networks. Their training also required resolution of poorly distributed output catalytic parameters using a Box-Cox transformation. End point leave-one-out cross correlations of the best neural networks revealed that predictions for individual catalytic parameters (kcat and Km) were more consistent with experimental values than those for catalytic efficiency (kcat/Km). Lastly, neural networks predicted correctly enantioselectivity and comparable catalytic parameters measured in this study for previously uncharacterized CYP2C19 substrates, R- and S-propranolol. Taken together, these seminal computational studies for CYP2C19 are the first to predict all catalytic parameters for enantioselective reactions using artificial neural networks and thus provide a foundation for expanding the prediction of cytochrome P450 reactions to chiral drugs, pollutants, and other biologically active compounds. PMID:23673224

  13. Prediction of critical heat flux in narrow rectangular channels using an artificial neural network

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhou Lei; Yan Xiao; Huang Yanping; Xiao Zejun; Yu Jiyang

    2011-01-01

    The concept of Critical heat flux (CHF) and its importance are introduced and the meaning to research CHF in narrow rectangular channels independently is emphasized. This paper is the first effort to predict CHF in NRCs using aritificial neural network. The mathematical structure of the artificial neural network and the error back-propagation algorithm are introduced. To predict CHF, the four dimensionless groups are inputted to the neural network and the output is the dimensionless CHF. As the hidden nodes increased, the training error decreases while the testing error decreases firstly and then transition occurs. Based on this, the hidden nodes are set as 5 and the trained network predicts all of the training and testing data points with RMS=0.0016 and μ=1.0003, which is better than several well-known existing correlations. Based on the trained network, the effect of several parameters on CHF are simulated and discussed. CHF increases almost linearly as the inlet subcooling increases. And larger mass flux enhances the effect of the inlet subcooling. CHF increases with the mass flux increasing. And the effect seems to be a little stronger for relatively low system pressure. CHF decreases almost linearly as the system pressure increases for the fixed inlet condition. The slope of the curve also increases with higher mass flux. This observation is limited to the ranges of the experimental database. CHF decreases as the heated length is increased and the gradients of the curves become very sharp for relatively short channel. CHF increases slightly with the diameter increasing with the variance of the gap limited within 1 to 3 mm. For relatively low mass flux, the effect of the equivalent diameter on CHF is insignificant. As the width of the channel is large enough, the effect of the gap is quite the same as that of the equivalent diameter. A BPNN is successfully trained based on near 500 CHF data points in NRCs, which has much better performances than the

  14. Artificial neural network models for prediction of cardiovascular autonomic dysfunction in general Chinese population

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-01-01

    Background The present study aimed to develop an artificial neural network (ANN) based prediction model for cardiovascular autonomic (CA) dysfunction in the general population. Methods We analyzed a previous dataset based on a population sample consisted of 2,092 individuals aged 30–80 years. The prediction models were derived from an exploratory set using ANN analysis. Performances of these prediction models were evaluated in the validation set. Results Univariate analysis indicated that 14 risk factors showed statistically significant association with CA dysfunction (P < 0.05). The mean area under the receiver-operating curve was 0.762 (95% CI 0.732–0.793) for prediction model developed using ANN analysis. The mean sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive values were similar in the prediction models was 0.751, 0.665, 0.330 and 0.924, respectively. All HL statistics were less than 15.0. Conclusion ANN is an effective tool for developing prediction models with high value for predicting CA dysfunction among the general population. PMID:23902963

  15. Comparison of Prediction Model for Cardiovascular Autonomic Dysfunction Using Artificial Neural Network and Logistic Regression Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zeng, Fangfang; Li, Zhongtao; Yu, Xiaoling; Zhou, Linuo

    2013-01-01

    Background This study aimed to develop the artificial neural network (ANN) and multivariable logistic regression (LR) analyses for prediction modeling of cardiovascular autonomic (CA) dysfunction in the general population, and compare the prediction models using the two approaches. Methods and Materials We analyzed a previous dataset based on a Chinese population sample consisting of 2,092 individuals aged 30–80 years. The prediction models were derived from an exploratory set using ANN and LR analysis, and were tested in the validation set. Performances of these prediction models were then compared. Results Univariate analysis indicated that 14 risk factors showed statistically significant association with the prevalence of CA dysfunction (P<0.05). The mean area under the receiver-operating curve was 0.758 (95% CI 0.724–0.793) for LR and 0.762 (95% CI 0.732–0.793) for ANN analysis, but noninferiority result was found (P<0.001). The similar results were found in comparisons of sensitivity, specificity, and predictive values in the prediction models between the LR and ANN analyses. Conclusion The prediction models for CA dysfunction were developed using ANN and LR. ANN and LR are two effective tools for developing prediction models based on our dataset. PMID:23940593

  16. The cluster analysis based on non-teacher artificial neural network for the danger prediction of coal spontaneous fire

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wang, D.; Wang, J. [China University of Mining and Technology (China)

    1999-04-01

    This paper focuses on the problem of predicting the danger level of spontaneous fire in coal mines. Firstly, the inadequacy of the present artificial neural networks prediction model is analysed. Then a new cluster model based on non-teacher neural network is constructed according to the danger judgement standards given by experts. On this basis, by adopting the error square sum criterion and its algorithm, the corresponding prediction software is developed and applied in two working faces of Chaili Coal Mine. The forecasting result is importantly significant for the prevention of spontaneous fire. 4 refs., 1 fig., 1 tab.

  17. Artificial neural networks employment in the prediction of evapotranspiration of greenhouse-grown sweet pepper

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Héliton Pandorfi

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available ABSTRACT This study aimed to investigate the applicability of artificial neural networks (ANNs in the prediction of evapotranspiration of sweet pepper cultivated in a greenhouse. The used data encompass the second crop cycle, from September 2013 to February 2014, constituting 135 days of daily meteorological data, referring to the following variables: temperature and relative air humidity, wind speed and solar radiation (input variables, as well as evapotranspiration (output variable, determined using data obtained by load-cell weighing lysimeter. The recorded data were divided into three sets for training, testing and validation. The ANN learning model recognized the evapotranspiration patterns with acceptable accuracy, with mean square error of 0.005, in comparison to the data recorded in the lysimeter, with coefficient of determination of 0.87, demonstrating the best approximation for the 4-21-1 network architecture, with multilayers, error back-propagation learning algorithm and learning rate of 0.01.

  18. DIAGNOSIS AND PREDICTION OF CHOLECYSTITIS DEVELOPMENT ON THE BASIS OF NEURAL NETWORK ANALYSIS OF RISK FACTORS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V. A. Lazarenko

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Purpose. To develop an artificial neural network for diagnosing and predicting the development of cholecystitis based on an analysis of data on risk factors, and to explore the possibilities of its application in real clinical practice.Materials and methods. The collection of materials was held in at the hospitals of the city of Kursk and included a survey of 488 patients with hepatopancreatoduodenal diseases. 203 patients were suffering from cholecystitis, in 285 patients the diagnosis of cholecystitis was excluded. Analysis of risk factors’ data (such as sex, age, bad habits, profession, family relationships, etc. was carried out using an internally developed artificial neural network (multilayer perceptron with hyperbolic tangent as the activation function. The computer program “System of Intellectual Analysis and Diagnosis of Diseases” was registered in accordance with established procedure (Certificate No. 2017613090.Results. The use of neural network analysis of data on risk factors in comparison with the processing of information that forms a clinical picture allows the diagnosis of a potential disease with cholecystitis before the onset of symptoms. The training of the artificial neural network with a quantitative output coding the age of probable hospitalization made it possible to generate an array of values, signifficantly (α ≤ 0.001 not differing from the empirical data. The difference between the mean calculated and mean empirical values was 0.45 for the training set and 1.75 for the clinical approbation group. The mean absolute error was within the range of 1.87–2.07 years.Conclusion. 1. The proposed new approach to the diagnosis and prognosis of cholecystitis has demonstrated its effectiveness, which is confirmed in clinical approbation by the levels of sensitivity (94.44%, m = 2.26 and specificity (80.6%, m = 3.9.2. The error in predicting the age of probable hospitalization of patients with cholecystitis did not

  19. Long short-term memory neural network for air pollutant concentration predictions: Method development and evaluation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Xiang; Peng, Ling; Yao, Xiaojing; Cui, Shaolong; Hu, Yuan; You, Chengzeng; Chi, Tianhe

    2017-12-01

    Air pollutant concentration forecasting is an effective method of protecting public health by providing an early warning against harmful air pollutants. However, existing methods of air pollutant concentration prediction fail to effectively model long-term dependencies, and most neglect spatial correlations. In this paper, a novel long short-term memory neural network extended (LSTME) model that inherently considers spatiotemporal correlations is proposed for air pollutant concentration prediction. Long short-term memory (LSTM) layers were used to automatically extract inherent useful features from historical air pollutant data, and auxiliary data, including meteorological data and time stamp data, were merged into the proposed model to enhance the performance. Hourly PM 2.5 (particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter less than or equal to 2.5 μm) concentration data collected at 12 air quality monitoring stations in Beijing City from Jan/01/2014 to May/28/2016 were used to validate the effectiveness of the proposed LSTME model. Experiments were performed using the spatiotemporal deep learning (STDL) model, the time delay neural network (TDNN) model, the autoregressive moving average (ARMA) model, the support vector regression (SVR) model, and the traditional LSTM NN model, and a comparison of the results demonstrated that the LSTME model is superior to the other statistics-based models. Additionally, the use of auxiliary data improved model performance. For the one-hour prediction tasks, the proposed model performed well and exhibited a mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) of 11.93%. In addition, we conducted multiscale predictions over different time spans and achieved satisfactory performance, even for 13-24 h prediction tasks (MAPE = 31.47%). Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  20. Predicting geomagnetic storms from solar-wind data using time-delay neural networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H. Gleisner

    1996-07-01

    Full Text Available We have used time-delay feed-forward neural networks to compute the geomagnetic-activity index Dst one hour ahead from a temporal sequence of solar-wind data. The input data include solar-wind density n, velocity V and the southward component Bz of the interplanetary magnetic field. Dst is not included in the input data. The networks implement an explicit functional relationship between the solar wind and the geomagnetic disturbance, including both direct and time-delayed non-linear relations. In this study we especially consider the influence of varying the temporal size of the input-data sequence. The networks are trained on data covering 6600 h, and tested on data covering 2100 h. It is found that the initial and main phases of geomagnetic storms are well predicted, almost independent of the length of the input-data sequence. However, to predict the recovery phase, we have to use up to 20 h of solar-wind input data. The recovery phase is mainly governed by the ring-current loss processes, and is very much dependent on the ring-current history, and thus also the solar-wind history. With due consideration of the time history when optimizing the networks, we can reproduce 84% of the Dst variance.

  1. Prediction of Emergency Department Hospital Admission Based on Natural Language Processing and Neural Networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Xingyu; Kim, Joyce; Patzer, Rachel E; Pitts, Stephen R; Patzer, Aaron; Schrager, Justin D

    2017-10-26

    To describe and compare logistic regression and neural network modeling strategies to predict hospital admission or transfer following initial presentation to Emergency Department (ED) triage with and without the addition of natural language processing elements. Using data from the National Hospital Ambulatory Medical Care Survey (NHAMCS), a cross-sectional probability sample of United States EDs from 2012 and 2013 survey years, we developed several predictive models with the outcome being admission to the hospital or transfer vs. discharge home. We included patient characteristics immediately available after the patient has presented to the ED and undergone a triage process. We used this information to construct logistic regression (LR) and multilayer neural network models (MLNN) which included natural language processing (NLP) and principal component analysis from the patient's reason for visit. Ten-fold cross validation was used to test the predictive capacity of each model and receiver operating curves (AUC) were then calculated for each model. Of the 47,200 ED visits from 642 hospitals, 6,335 (13.42%) resulted in hospital admission (or transfer). A total of 48 principal components were extracted by NLP from the reason for visit fields, which explained 75% of the overall variance for hospitalization. In the model including only structured variables, the AUC was 0.824 (95% CI 0.818-0.830) for logistic regression and 0.823 (95% CI 0.817-0.829) for MLNN. Models including only free-text information generated AUC of 0.742 (95% CI 0.731- 0.753) for logistic regression and 0.753 (95% CI 0.742-0.764) for MLNN. When both structured variables and free text variables were included, the AUC reached 0.846 (95% CI 0.839-0.853) for logistic regression and 0.844 (95% CI 0.836-0.852) for MLNN. The predictive accuracy of hospital admission or transfer for patients who presented to ED triage overall was good, and was improved with the inclusion of free text data from a patient

  2. Daily Suspended Sediment Discharge Prediction Using Multiple Linear Regression and Artificial Neural Network

    Science.gov (United States)

    Uca; Toriman, Ekhwan; Jaafar, Othman; Maru, Rosmini; Arfan, Amal; Saleh Ahmar, Ansari

    2018-01-01

    Prediction of suspended sediment discharge in a catchments area is very important because it can be used to evaluation the erosion hazard, management of its water resources, water quality, hydrology project management (dams, reservoirs, and irrigation) and to determine the extent of the damage that occurred in the catchments. Multiple Linear Regression analysis and artificial neural network can be used to predict the amount of daily suspended sediment discharge. Regression analysis using the least square method, whereas artificial neural networks using Radial Basis Function (RBF) and feedforward multilayer perceptron with three learning algorithms namely Levenberg-Marquardt (LM), Scaled Conjugate Descent (SCD) and Broyden-Fletcher-Goldfarb-Shanno Quasi-Newton (BFGS). The number neuron of hidden layer is three to sixteen, while in output layer only one neuron because only one output target. The mean absolute error (MAE), root mean square error (RMSE), coefficient of determination (R2 ) and coefficient of efficiency (CE) of the multiple linear regression (MLRg) value Model 2 (6 input variable independent) has the lowest the value of MAE and RMSE (0.0000002 and 13.6039) and highest R2 and CE (0.9971 and 0.9971). When compared between LM, SCG and RBF, the BFGS model structure 3-7-1 is the better and more accurate to prediction suspended sediment discharge in Jenderam catchment. The performance value in testing process, MAE and RMSE (13.5769 and 17.9011) is smallest, meanwhile R2 and CE (0.9999 and 0.9998) is the highest if it compared with the another BFGS Quasi-Newton model (6-3-1, 9-10-1 and 12-12-1). Based on the performance statistics value, MLRg, LM, SCG, BFGS and RBF suitable and accurately for prediction by modeling the non-linear complex behavior of suspended sediment responses to rainfall, water depth and discharge. The comparison between artificial neural network (ANN) and MLRg, the MLRg Model 2 accurately for to prediction suspended sediment discharge (kg

  3. An artificial neural network to predict resting energy expenditure in obesity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Disse, Emmanuel; Ledoux, Séverine; Bétry, Cécile; Caussy, Cyrielle; Maitrepierre, Christine; Coupaye, Muriel; Laville, Martine; Simon, Chantal

    2017-09-01

    The resting energy expenditure (REE) determination is important in nutrition for adequate dietary prescription. The gold standard i.e. indirect calorimetry is not available in clinical settings. Thus, several predictive equations have been developed, but they lack of accuracy in subjects with extreme weight including obese populations. Artificial neural networks (ANN) are useful predictive tools in the area of artificial intelligence, used in numerous clinical fields. The aim of this study was to determine the relevance of ANN in predicting REE in obesity. A Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP) feed-forward neural network with a back propagation algorithm was created and cross-validated in a cohort of 565 obese subjects (BMI within 30-50 kg m -2 ) with weight, height, sex and age as clinical inputs and REE measured by indirect calorimetry as output. The predictive performances of ANN were compared to those of 23 predictive REE equations in the training set and in two independent sets of 100 and 237 obese subjects for external validation. Among the 23 established prediction equations for REE evaluated, the Harris & Benedict equations recalculated by Roza were the most accurate for the obese population, followed by the USA DRI, Müller and the original Harris & Benedict equations. The final 5-fold cross-validated three-layer 4-3-1 feed-forward back propagation ANN model developed in that study improved precision and accuracy of REE prediction over linear equations (precision = 68.1%, MAPE = 8.6% and RMSPE = 210 kcal/d), independently from BMI subgroups within 30-50 kg m -2 . External validation confirmed the better predictive performances of ANN model (precision = 73% and 65%, MAPE = 7.7% and 8.6%, RMSPE = 187 kcal/d and 200 kcal/d in the 2 independent datasets) for the prediction of REE in obese subjects. We developed and validated an ANN model for the prediction of REE in obese subjects that is more precise and accurate than established REE predictive

  4. DeepFix: A Fully Convolutional Neural Network for Predicting Human Eye Fixations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kruthiventi, Srinivas S S; Ayush, Kumar; Babu, R Venkatesh

    2017-09-01

    Understanding and predicting the human visual attention mechanism is an active area of research in the fields of neuroscience and computer vision. In this paper, we propose DeepFix, a fully convolutional neural network, which models the bottom-up mechanism of visual attention via saliency prediction. Unlike classical works, which characterize the saliency map using various hand-crafted features, our model automatically learns features in a hierarchical fashion and predicts the saliency map in an end-to-end manner. DeepFix is designed to capture semantics at multiple scales while taking global context into account, by using network layers with very large receptive fields. Generally, fully convolutional nets are spatially invariant-this prevents them from modeling location-dependent patterns (e.g., centre-bias). Our network handles this by incorporating a novel location-biased convolutional layer. We evaluate our model on multiple challenging saliency data sets and show that it achieves the state-of-the-art results.

  5. Application of Artificial Neural Network to Predict Colour Change, Shrinkage and Texture of Osmotically Dehydrated Pumpkin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tang, S. Y.; Lee, J. S.; Loh, S. P.; Tham, H. J.

    2017-06-01

    The objectives of this study were to use Artificial Neural Network (ANN) to predict colour change, shrinkage and texture of osmotically dehydrated pumpkin slices. The effects of process variables such as concentration of osmotic solution, immersion temperature and immersion time on the above mentioned physical properties were studied. The colour of the samples was measured using a colorimeter and the net colour difference changes, ΔE were determined. The texture was measured in terms of hardness by using a Texture Analyzer. As for the shrinkage, displacement of volume method was applied and percentage of shrinkage was obtained in terms of volume changes. A feed-forward backpropagation network with sigmoidal function was developed and best network configuration was chosen based on the highest correlation coefficients between the experimental values versus predicted values. As a comparison, Response Surface Methodology (RSM) statistical analysis was also employed. The performances of both RSM and ANN modelling were evaluated based on absolute average deviation (AAD), correlation of determination (R2) and root mean square error (RMSE). The results showed that ANN has higher prediction capability as compared to RSM. The relative importance of the variables on the physical properties were also determined by using connection weight approach in ANN. It was found that solution concentration showed the highest influence on all three physical properties.

  6. Informative sensor selection and learning for prediction of lower limb kinematics using generative stochastic neural networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eunsuk Chong; Taejin Choi; Hyungmin Kim; Seung-Jong Kim; Yoha Hwang; Jong Min Lee

    2017-07-01

    We propose a novel approach of selecting useful input sensors as well as learning a mathematical model for predicting lower limb joint kinematics. We applied a feature selection method based on the mutual information called the variational information maximization, which has been reported as the state-of-the-art work among information based feature selection methods. The main difficulty in applying the method is estimating reliable probability density of input and output data, especially when the data are high dimensional and real-valued. We addressed this problem by applying a generative stochastic neural network called the restricted Boltzmann machine, through which we could perform sampling based probability estimation. The mutual informations between inputs and outputs are evaluated in each backward sensor elimination step, and the least informative sensor is removed with its network connections. The entire network is fine-tuned by maximizing conditional likelihood in each step. Experimental results are shown for 4 healthy subjects walking with various speeds, recording 64 sensor measurements including electromyogram, acceleration, and foot-pressure sensors attached on both lower limbs for predicting hip and knee joint angles. For test set of walking with arbitrary speed, our results show that our suggested method can select informative sensors while maintaining a good prediction accuracy.

  7. Convolutional neural networks for seizure prediction using intracranial and scalp electroencephalogram.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Truong, Nhan Duy; Nguyen, Anh Duy; Kuhlmann, Levin; Bonyadi, Mohammad Reza; Yang, Jiawei; Ippolito, Samuel; Kavehei, Omid

    2018-05-07

    Seizure prediction has attracted growing attention as one of the most challenging predictive data analysis efforts to improve the life of patients with drug-resistant epilepsy and tonic seizures. Many outstanding studies have reported great results in providing sensible indirect (warning systems) or direct (interactive neural stimulation) control over refractory seizures, some of which achieved high performance. However, to achieve high sensitivity and a low false prediction rate, many of these studies relied on handcraft feature extraction and/or tailored feature extraction, which is performed for each patient independently. This approach, however, is not generalizable, and requires significant modifications for each new patient within a new dataset. In this article, we apply convolutional neural networks to different intracranial and scalp electroencephalogram (EEG) datasets and propose a generalized retrospective and patient-specific seizure prediction method. We use the short-time Fourier transform on 30-s EEG windows to extract information in both the frequency domain and the time domain. The algorithm automatically generates optimized features for each patient to best classify preictal and interictal segments. The method can be applied to any other patient from any dataset without the need for manual feature extraction. The proposed approach achieves sensitivity of 81.4%, 81.2%, and 75% and a false prediction rate of 0.06/h, 0.16/h, and 0.21/h on the Freiburg Hospital intracranial EEG dataset, the Boston Children's Hospital-MIT scalp EEG dataset, and the American Epilepsy Society Seizure Prediction Challenge dataset, respectively. Our prediction method is also statistically better than an unspecific random predictor for most of the patients in all three datasets. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  8. A Novel approach for predicting monthly water demand by combining singular spectrum analysis with neural networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zubaidi, Salah L.; Dooley, Jayne; Alkhaddar, Rafid M.; Abdellatif, Mawada; Al-Bugharbee, Hussein; Ortega-Martorell, Sandra

    2018-06-01

    Valid and dependable water demand prediction is a major element of the effective and sustainable expansion of municipal water infrastructures. This study provides a novel approach to quantifying water demand through the assessment of climatic factors, using a combination of a pretreatment signal technique, a hybrid particle swarm optimisation algorithm and an artificial neural network (PSO-ANN). The Singular Spectrum Analysis (SSA) technique was adopted to decompose and reconstruct water consumption in relation to six weather variables, to create a seasonal and stochastic time series. The results revealed that SSA is a powerful technique, capable of decomposing the original time series into many independent components including trend, oscillatory behaviours and noise. In addition, the PSO-ANN algorithm was shown to be a reliable prediction model, outperforming the hybrid Backtracking Search Algorithm BSA-ANN in terms of fitness function (RMSE). The findings of this study also support the view that water demand is driven by climatological variables.

  9. Deflection Prediction of No-Fines Lightweight Concrete Wall Using Neural Network Caused Dynamic Loads

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ridho Bayuaji

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available No-fines lightweight concrete wall with horizontal reinforcement refers to an alternative material for wall construction with an aim of improving the wall quality towards horizontal loads. This study is focused on artificial neural network (ANN application to predicting the deflection deformation caused by dynamic loads. The ANN method is able to capture the complex interactions among input/output variables in a system without any knowledge of interaction nature and without any explicit assumption to model form. This paper explains the existing data research, data selection and process of ANN modelling training process and validation. The results of this research show that the deformation can be predicted more accurately, simply and quickly due to the alternating horizontal loads.

  10. Knowledge-based artificial neural network model to predict the properties of alpha+ beta titanium alloys

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Banu, P. S. Noori; Rani, S. Devaki [Dept. of Metallurgical Engineering, Jawaharlal Nehru Technological University, HyderabadI (India)

    2016-08-15

    In view of emerging applications of alpha+beta titanium alloys in aerospace and defense, we have aimed to develop a Back propagation neural network (BPNN) model capable of predicting the properties of these alloys as functions of alloy composition and/or thermomechanical processing parameters. The optimized BPNN model architecture was based on the sigmoid transfer function and has one hidden layer with ten nodes. The BPNN model showed excellent predictability of five properties: Tensile strength (r: 0.96), yield strength (r: 0.93), beta transus (r: 0.96), specific heat capacity (r: 1.00) and density (r: 0.99). The developed BPNN model was in agreement with the experimental data in demonstrating the individual effects of alloying elements in modulating the above properties. This model can serve as the platform for the design and development of new alpha+beta titanium alloys in order to attain desired strength, density and specific heat capacity.

  11. Application of artificial neural network to predict the optimal start time for heating system in building

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yang, In-Ho; Yeo, Myoung-Souk; Kim, Kwang-Woo

    2003-01-01

    The artificial neural network (ANN) approach is a generic technique for mapping non-linear relationships between inputs and outputs without knowing the details of these relationships. This paper presents an application of the ANN in a building control system. The objective of this study is to develop an optimized ANN model to determine the optimal start time for a heating system in a building. For this, programs for predicting the room air temperature and the learning of the ANN model based on back propagation learning were developed, and learning data for various building conditions were collected through program simulation for predicting the room air temperature using systems of experimental design. Then, the optimized ANN model was presented through learning of the ANN, and its performance to determine the optimal start time was evaluated

  12. Predictive time-series modeling using artificial neural networks for Linac beam symmetry: an empirical study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Qiongge; Chan, Maria F

    2017-01-01

    Over half of cancer patients receive radiotherapy (RT) as partial or full cancer treatment. Daily quality assurance (QA) of RT in cancer treatment closely monitors the performance of the medical linear accelerator (Linac) and is critical for continuous improvement of patient safety and quality of care. Cumulative longitudinal QA measurements are valuable for understanding the behavior of the Linac and allow physicists to identify trends in the output and take preventive actions. In this study, artificial neural networks (ANNs) and autoregressive moving average (ARMA) time-series prediction modeling techniques were both applied to 5-year daily Linac QA data. Verification tests and other evaluations were then performed for all models. Preliminary results showed that ANN time-series predictive modeling has more advantages over ARMA techniques for accurate and effective applicability in the dosimetry and QA field. © 2016 New York Academy of Sciences.

  13. Sensitive quantitative predictions of peptide-MHC binding by a 'Query by Committee' artificial neural network approach

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Buus, S.; Lauemoller, S.L.; Worning, Peder

    2003-01-01

    We have generated Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) capable of performing sensitive, quantitative predictions of peptide binding to the MHC class I molecule, HLA-A*0204. We have shown that such quantitative ANN are superior to conventional classification ANN, that have been trained to predict...

  14. Sensitive quantitative predictions of peptide-MHC binding by a 'Query by Committee' artificial neural network approach

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Buus, S.; Lauemoller, S.L.; Worning, Peder

    2003-01-01

    We have generated Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) capable of performing sensitive, quantitative predictions of peptide binding to the MHC class I molecule, HLA-A*0204. We have shown that such quantitative ANN are superior to conventional classification ANN, that have been trained to predict bind...... of an iterative feedback loop whereby advanced, computational bioinformatics optimize experimental strategy, and vice versa....

  15. Prediction of U-Mo dispersion nuclear fuels with Al-Si alloy using artificial neural network

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Susmikanti, Mike; Sulistyo, Jos

    2014-01-01

    Dispersion nuclear fuels, consisting of U-Mo particles dispersed in an Al-Si matrix, are being developed as fuel for research reactors. The equilibrium relationship for a mixture component can be expressed in the phase diagram. It is important to analyze whether a mixture component is in equilibrium phase or another phase. The purpose of this research it is needed to built the model of the phase diagram, so the mixture component is in the stable or melting condition. Artificial neural network (ANN) is a modeling tool for processes involving multivariable non-linear relationships. The objective of the present work is to develop code based on artificial neural network models of system equilibrium relationship of U-Mo in Al-Si matrix. This model can be used for prediction of type of resulting mixture, and whether the point is on the equilibrium phase or in another phase region. The equilibrium model data for prediction and modeling generated from experimentally data. The artificial neural network with resilient backpropagation method was chosen to predict the dispersion of nuclear fuels U-Mo in Al-Si matrix. This developed code was built with some function in MATLAB. For simulations using ANN, the Levenberg-Marquardt method was also used for optimization. The artificial neural network is able to predict the equilibrium phase or in the phase region. The develop code based on artificial neural network models was built, for analyze equilibrium relationship of U-Mo in Al-Si matrix

  16. Prediction of residual stress for dissimilar metals welding at nuclear power plants using fuzzy neural network models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Na, Man Gyun; Kim, Jin Weon; Lim, Dong Hyuk

    2007-01-01

    A fuzzy neural network model is presented to predict residual stress for dissimilar metal welding under various welding conditions. The fuzzy neural network model, which consists of a fuzzy inference system and a neuronal training system, is optimized by a hybrid learning method that combines a genetic algorithm to optimize the membership function parameters and a least squares method to solve the consequent parameters. The data of finite element analysis are divided into four data groups, which are split according to two end-section constraints and two prediction paths. Four fuzzy neural network models were therefore applied to the numerical data obtained from the finite element analysis for the two end-section constraints and the two prediction paths. The fuzzy neural network models were trained with the aid of a data set prepared for training (training data), optimized by means of an optimization data set and verified by means of a test data set that was different (independent) from the training data and the optimization data. The accuracy of fuzzy neural network models is known to be sufficiently accurate for use in an integrity evaluation by predicting the residual stress of dissimilar metal welding zones

  17. Predicting carcinogenicity of diverse chemicals using probabilistic neural network modeling approaches

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Singh, Kunwar P., E-mail: kpsingh_52@yahoo.com [Academy of Scientific and Innovative Research, Council of Scientific and Industrial Research, New Delhi (India); Environmental Chemistry Division, CSIR-Indian Institute of Toxicology Research, Post Box 80, Mahatma Gandhi Marg, Lucknow 226 001 (India); Gupta, Shikha; Rai, Premanjali [Academy of Scientific and Innovative Research, Council of Scientific and Industrial Research, New Delhi (India); Environmental Chemistry Division, CSIR-Indian Institute of Toxicology Research, Post Box 80, Mahatma Gandhi Marg, Lucknow 226 001 (India)

    2013-10-15

    Robust global models capable of discriminating positive and non-positive carcinogens; and predicting carcinogenic potency of chemicals in rodents were developed. The dataset of 834 structurally diverse chemicals extracted from Carcinogenic Potency Database (CPDB) was used which contained 466 positive and 368 non-positive carcinogens. Twelve non-quantum mechanical molecular descriptors were derived. Structural diversity of the chemicals and nonlinearity in the data were evaluated using Tanimoto similarity index and Brock–Dechert–Scheinkman statistics. Probabilistic neural network (PNN) and generalized regression neural network (GRNN) models were constructed for classification and function optimization problems using the carcinogenicity end point in rat. Validation of the models was performed using the internal and external procedures employing a wide series of statistical checks. PNN constructed using five descriptors rendered classification accuracy of 92.09% in complete rat data. The PNN model rendered classification accuracies of 91.77%, 80.70% and 92.08% in mouse, hamster and pesticide data, respectively. The GRNN constructed with nine descriptors yielded correlation coefficient of 0.896 between the measured and predicted carcinogenic potency with mean squared error (MSE) of 0.44 in complete rat data. The rat carcinogenicity model (GRNN) applied to the mouse and hamster data yielded correlation coefficient and MSE of 0.758, 0.71 and 0.760, 0.46, respectively. The results suggest for wide applicability of the inter-species models in predicting carcinogenic potency of chemicals. Both the PNN and GRNN (inter-species) models constructed here can be useful tools in predicting the carcinogenicity of new chemicals for regulatory purposes. - Graphical abstract: Figure (a) shows classification accuracies (positive and non-positive carcinogens) in rat, mouse, hamster, and pesticide data yielded by optimal PNN model. Figure (b) shows generalization and predictive

  18. DNCON2: improved protein contact prediction using two-level deep convolutional neural networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adhikari, Badri; Hou, Jie; Cheng, Jianlin

    2018-05-01

    Significant improvements in the prediction of protein residue-residue contacts are observed in the recent years. These contacts, predicted using a variety of coevolution-based and machine learning methods, are the key contributors to the recent progress in ab initio protein structure prediction, as demonstrated in the recent CASP experiments. Continuing the development of new methods to reliably predict contact maps is essential to further improve ab initio structure prediction. In this paper we discuss DNCON2, an improved protein contact map predictor based on two-level deep convolutional neural networks. It consists of six convolutional neural networks-the first five predict contacts at 6, 7.5, 8, 8.5 and 10 Å distance thresholds, and the last one uses these five predictions as additional features to predict final contact maps. On the free-modeling datasets in CASP10, 11 and 12 experiments, DNCON2 achieves mean precisions of 35, 50 and 53.4%, respectively, higher than 30.6% by MetaPSICOV on CASP10 dataset, 34% by MetaPSICOV on CASP11 dataset and 46.3% by Raptor-X on CASP12 dataset, when top L/5 long-range contacts are evaluated. We attribute the improved performance of DNCON2 to the inclusion of short- and medium-range contacts into training, two-level approach to prediction, use of the state-of-the-art optimization and activation functions, and a novel deep learning architecture that allows each filter in a convolutional layer to access all the input features of a protein of arbitrary length. The web server of DNCON2 is at http://sysbio.rnet.missouri.edu/dncon2/ where training and testing datasets as well as the predictions for CASP10, 11 and 12 free-modeling datasets can also be downloaded. Its source code is available at https://github.com/multicom-toolbox/DNCON2/. chengji@missouri.edu. Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online.

  19. Predicting Response to Neoadjuvant Chemotherapy with PET Imaging Using Convolutional Neural Networks.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Petros-Pavlos Ypsilantis

    Full Text Available Imaging of cancer with 18F-fluorodeoxyglucose positron emission tomography (18F-FDG PET has become a standard component of diagnosis and staging in oncology, and is becoming more important as a quantitative monitor of individual response to therapy. In this article we investigate the challenging problem of predicting a patient's response to neoadjuvant chemotherapy from a single 18F-FDG PET scan taken prior to treatment. We take a "radiomics" approach whereby a large amount of quantitative features is automatically extracted from pretherapy PET images in order to build a comprehensive quantification of the tumor phenotype. While the dominant methodology relies on hand-crafted texture features, we explore the potential of automatically learning low- to high-level features directly from PET scans. We report on a study that compares the performance of two competing radiomics strategies: an approach based on state-of-the-art statistical classifiers using over 100 quantitative imaging descriptors, including texture features as well as standardized uptake values, and a convolutional neural network, 3S-CNN, trained directly from PET scans by taking sets of adjacent intra-tumor slices. Our experimental results, based on a sample of 107 patients with esophageal cancer, provide initial evidence that convolutional neural networks have the potential to extract PET imaging representations that are highly predictive of response to therapy. On this dataset, 3S-CNN achieves an average 80.7% sensitivity and 81.6% specificity in predicting non-responders, and outperforms other competing predictive models.

  20. Protein Solvent-Accessibility Prediction by a Stacked Deep Bidirectional Recurrent Neural Network

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Buzhong Zhang

    2018-05-01

    Full Text Available Residue solvent accessibility is closely related to the spatial arrangement and packing of residues. Predicting the solvent accessibility of a protein is an important step to understand its structure and function. In this work, we present a deep learning method to predict residue solvent accessibility, which is based on a stacked deep bidirectional recurrent neural network applied to sequence profiles. To capture more long-range sequence information, a merging operator was proposed when bidirectional information from hidden nodes was merged for outputs. Three types of merging operators were used in our improved model, with a long short-term memory network performing as a hidden computing node. The trained database was constructed from 7361 proteins extracted from the PISCES server using a cut-off of 25% sequence identity. Sequence-derived features including position-specific scoring matrix, physical properties, physicochemical characteristics, conservation score and protein coding were used to represent a residue. Using this method, predictive values of continuous relative solvent-accessible area were obtained, and then, these values were transformed into binary states with predefined thresholds. Our experimental results showed that our deep learning method improved prediction quality relative to current methods, with mean absolute error and Pearson’s correlation coefficient values of 8.8% and 74.8%, respectively, on the CB502 dataset and 8.2% and 78%, respectively, on the Manesh215 dataset.

  1. Protein Solvent-Accessibility Prediction by a Stacked Deep Bidirectional Recurrent Neural Network.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Buzhong; Li, Linqing; Lü, Qiang

    2018-05-25

    Residue solvent accessibility is closely related to the spatial arrangement and packing of residues. Predicting the solvent accessibility of a protein is an important step to understand its structure and function. In this work, we present a deep learning method to predict residue solvent accessibility, which is based on a stacked deep bidirectional recurrent neural network applied to sequence profiles. To capture more long-range sequence information, a merging operator was proposed when bidirectional information from hidden nodes was merged for outputs. Three types of merging operators were used in our improved model, with a long short-term memory network performing as a hidden computing node. The trained database was constructed from 7361 proteins extracted from the PISCES server using a cut-off of 25% sequence identity. Sequence-derived features including position-specific scoring matrix, physical properties, physicochemical characteristics, conservation score and protein coding were used to represent a residue. Using this method, predictive values of continuous relative solvent-accessible area were obtained, and then, these values were transformed into binary states with predefined thresholds. Our experimental results showed that our deep learning method improved prediction quality relative to current methods, with mean absolute error and Pearson's correlation coefficient values of 8.8% and 74.8%, respectively, on the CB502 dataset and 8.2% and 78%, respectively, on the Manesh215 dataset.

  2. Heave motion prediction of a large barge in random seas by using artificial neural network

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Hsiu Eik; Liew, Mohd Shahir; Zawawi, Noor Amila Wan Abdullah; Toloue, Iraj

    2017-11-01

    This paper describes the development of a multi-layer feed forward artificial neural network (ANN) to predict rigid heave body motions of a large catenary moored barge subjected to multi-directional irregular waves. The barge is idealized as a rigid plate of finite draft with planar dimensions 160m (length) and 100m (width) which is held on station using a six point chain catenary mooring in 50m water depth. Hydroelastic effects are neglected from the physical model as the chief intent of this study is focused on large plate rigid body hydrodynamics modelling using ANN. Even with this assumption, the computational requirements for time domain coupled hydrodynamic simulations of a moored floating body is considerably costly, particularly if a large number of simulations are required such as in the case of response based design (RBD) methods. As an alternative to time consuming numerical hydrodynamics, a regression-type ANN model has been developed for efficient prediction of the barge's heave responses to random waves from various directions. It was determined that a network comprising of 3 input features, 2 hidden layers with 5 neurons each and 1 output was sufficient to produce acceptable predictions within 0.02 mean squared error. By benchmarking results from the ANN with those generated by a fully coupled dynamic model in OrcaFlex, it is demonstrated that the ANN is capable of predicting the barge's heave responses with acceptable accuracy.

  3. Neural networks for link prediction in realistic biomedical graphs: a multi-dimensional evaluation of graph embedding-based approaches.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crichton, Gamal; Guo, Yufan; Pyysalo, Sampo; Korhonen, Anna

    2018-05-21

    Link prediction in biomedical graphs has several important applications including predicting Drug-Target Interactions (DTI), Protein-Protein Interaction (PPI) prediction and Literature-Based Discovery (LBD). It can be done using a classifier to output the probability of link formation between nodes. Recently several works have used neural networks to create node representations which allow rich inputs to neural classifiers. Preliminary works were done on this and report promising results. However they did not use realistic settings like time-slicing, evaluate performances with comprehensive metrics or explain when or why neural network methods outperform. We investigated how inputs from four node representation algorithms affect performance of a neural link predictor on random- and time-sliced biomedical graphs of real-world sizes (∼ 6 million edges) containing information relevant to DTI, PPI and LBD. We compared the performance of the neural link predictor to those of established baselines and report performance across five metrics. In random- and time-sliced experiments when the neural network methods were able to learn good node representations and there was a negligible amount of disconnected nodes, those approaches outperformed the baselines. In the smallest graph (∼ 15,000 edges) and in larger graphs with approximately 14% disconnected nodes, baselines such as Common Neighbours proved a justifiable choice for link prediction. At low recall levels (∼ 0.3) the approaches were mostly equal, but at higher recall levels across all nodes and average performance at individual nodes, neural network approaches were superior. Analysis showed that neural network methods performed well on links between nodes with no previous common neighbours; potentially the most interesting links. Additionally, while neural network methods benefit from large amounts of data, they require considerable amounts of computational resources to utilise them. Our results indicate

  4. Artificial Neural Network and Genetic Algorithm Hybrid Intelligence for Predicting Thai Stock Price Index Trend

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Montri Inthachot

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available This study investigated the use of Artificial Neural Network (ANN and Genetic Algorithm (GA for prediction of Thailand’s SET50 index trend. ANN is a widely accepted machine learning method that uses past data to predict future trend, while GA is an algorithm that can find better subsets of input variables for importing into ANN, hence enabling more accurate prediction by its efficient feature selection. The imported data were chosen technical indicators highly regarded by stock analysts, each represented by 4 input variables that were based on past time spans of 4 different lengths: 3-, 5-, 10-, and 15-day spans before the day of prediction. This import undertaking generated a big set of diverse input variables with an exponentially higher number of possible subsets that GA culled down to a manageable number of more effective ones. SET50 index data of the past 6 years, from 2009 to 2014, were used to evaluate this hybrid intelligence prediction accuracy, and the hybrid’s prediction results were found to be more accurate than those made by a method using only one input variable for one fixed length of past time span.

  5. Predicting the Direction of Stock Market Index Movement Using an Optimized Artificial Neural Network Model.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mingyue Qiu

    Full Text Available In the business sector, it has always been a difficult task to predict the exact daily price of the stock market index; hence, there is a great deal of research being conducted regarding the prediction of the direction of stock price index movement. Many factors such as political events, general economic conditions, and traders' expectations may have an influence on the stock market index. There are numerous research studies that use similar indicators to forecast the direction of the stock market index. In this study, we compare two basic types of input variables to predict the direction of the daily stock market index. The main contribution of this study is the ability to predict the direction of the next day's price of the Japanese stock market index by using an optimized artificial neural network (ANN model. To improve the prediction accuracy of the trend of the stock market index in the future, we optimize the ANN model using genetic algorithms (GA. We demonstrate and verify the predictability of stock price direction by using the hybrid GA-ANN model and then compare the performance with prior studies. Empirical results show that the Type 2 input variables can generate a higher forecast accuracy and that it is possible to enhance the performance of the optimized ANN model by selecting input variables appropriately.

  6. Neural Network-Based Coronary Heart Disease Risk Prediction Using Feature Correlation Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jae Kwon Kim

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Background. Of the machine learning techniques used in predicting coronary heart disease (CHD, neural network (NN is popularly used to improve performance accuracy. Objective. Even though NN-based systems provide meaningful results based on clinical experiments, medical experts are not satisfied with their predictive performances because NN is trained in a “black-box” style. Method. We sought to devise an NN-based prediction of CHD risk using feature correlation analysis (NN-FCA using two stages. First, the feature selection stage, which makes features acceding to the importance in predicting CHD risk, is ranked, and second, the feature correlation analysis stage, during which one learns about the existence of correlations between feature relations and the data of each NN predictor output, is determined. Result. Of the 4146 individuals in the Korean dataset evaluated, 3031 had low CHD risk and 1115 had CHD high risk. The area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC curve of the proposed model (0.749 ± 0.010 was larger than the Framingham risk score (FRS (0.393 ± 0.010. Conclusions. The proposed NN-FCA, which utilizes feature correlation analysis, was found to be better than FRS in terms of CHD risk prediction. Furthermore, the proposed model resulted in a larger ROC curve and more accurate predictions of CHD risk in the Korean population than the FRS.

  7. Modeling and prediction of retardance in citric acid coated ferrofluid using artificial neural network

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lin, Jing-Fung; Sheu, Jer-Jia

    2016-01-01

    Citric acid coated (citrate-stabilized) magnetite (Fe 3 O 4 ) magnetic nanoparticles have been conducted and applied in the biomedical fields. Using Taguchi-based measured retardances as the training data, an artificial neural network (ANN) model was developed for the prediction of retardance in citric acid (CA) coated ferrofluid (FF). According to the ANN simulation results in the training stage, the correlation coefficient between predicted retardances and measured retardances was found to be as high as 0.9999998. Based on the well-trained ANN model, the predicted retardance at excellent program from Taguchi method showed less error of 2.17% compared with a multiple regression (MR) analysis of statistical significance. Meanwhile, the parameter analysis at excellent program by the ANN model had the guiding significance to find out a possible program for the maximum retardance. It was concluded that the proposed ANN model had high ability for the prediction of retardance in CA coated FF. - Highlights: • The feedforward ANN is applied for modeling of retardance in CA coated FFs. • ANN can predict the retardance at excellent program with acceptable error to MR. • The proposed ANN has high ability for the prediction of retardance.

  8. Prediction of hot deformation behavior of high phosphorus steel using artificial neural network

    Science.gov (United States)

    Singh, Kanchan; Rajput, S. K.; Soota, T.; Verma, Vijay; Singh, Dharmendra

    2018-03-01

    To predict the hot deformation behavior of high phosphorus steel, the hot compression experiments were performed with the help of thermo-mechanical simulator Gleeble® 3800 in the temperatures ranging from 750 °C to 1050 °C and strain rates of 0.001 s-1, 0.01 s-1, 0.1 s-1, 0.5 s-1, 1.0 s-1 and 10 s-1. The experimental stress-strain data are employed to develop artificial neural network (ANN) model and their predictability. Using different combination of temperature, strain and strain rate as a input parameter and obtained experimental stress as a target, a multi-layer ANN model based on feed-forward back-propagation algorithm is trained, to predict the flow stress for a given processing condition. The relative error between predicted and experimental stress are in the range of ±3.5%, whereas the correlation coefficient (R2) of training and testing data are 0.99986 and 0.99999 respectively. This shows that a well-trained ANN model has excellent capability to predict the hot deformation behavior of materials. Comparative study shows quite good agreement of predicted and experimental values.

  9. Artificial Neural Network and Genetic Algorithm Hybrid Intelligence for Predicting Thai Stock Price Index Trend

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boonjing, Veera; Intakosum, Sarun

    2016-01-01

    This study investigated the use of Artificial Neural Network (ANN) and Genetic Algorithm (GA) for prediction of Thailand's SET50 index trend. ANN is a widely accepted machine learning method that uses past data to predict future trend, while GA is an algorithm that can find better subsets of input variables for importing into ANN, hence enabling more accurate prediction by its efficient feature selection. The imported data were chosen technical indicators highly regarded by stock analysts, each represented by 4 input variables that were based on past time spans of 4 different lengths: 3-, 5-, 10-, and 15-day spans before the day of prediction. This import undertaking generated a big set of diverse input variables with an exponentially higher number of possible subsets that GA culled down to a manageable number of more effective ones. SET50 index data of the past 6 years, from 2009 to 2014, were used to evaluate this hybrid intelligence prediction accuracy, and the hybrid's prediction results were found to be more accurate than those made by a method using only one input variable for one fixed length of past time span. PMID:27974883

  10. Predicting the Direction of Stock Market Index Movement Using an Optimized Artificial Neural Network Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Qiu, Mingyue; Song, Yu

    2016-01-01

    In the business sector, it has always been a difficult task to predict the exact daily price of the stock market index; hence, there is a great deal of research being conducted regarding the prediction of the direction of stock price index movement. Many factors such as political events, general economic conditions, and traders' expectations may have an influence on the stock market index. There are numerous research studies that use similar indicators to forecast the direction of the stock market index. In this study, we compare two basic types of input variables to predict the direction of the daily stock market index. The main contribution of this study is the ability to predict the direction of the next day's price of the Japanese stock market index by using an optimized artificial neural network (ANN) model. To improve the prediction accuracy of the trend of the stock market index in the future, we optimize the ANN model using genetic algorithms (GA). We demonstrate and verify the predictability of stock price direction by using the hybrid GA-ANN model and then compare the performance with prior studies. Empirical results show that the Type 2 input variables can generate a higher forecast accuracy and that it is possible to enhance the performance of the optimized ANN model by selecting input variables appropriately.

  11. EP-DNN: A Deep Neural Network-Based Global Enhancer Prediction Algorithm.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Seong Gon; Harwani, Mrudul; Grama, Ananth; Chaterji, Somali

    2016-12-08

    We present EP-DNN, a protocol for predicting enhancers based on chromatin features, in different cell types. Specifically, we use a deep neural network (DNN)-based architecture to extract enhancer signatures in a representative human embryonic stem cell type (H1) and a differentiated lung cell type (IMR90). We train EP-DNN using p300 binding sites, as enhancers, and TSS and random non-DHS sites, as non-enhancers. We perform same-cell and cross-cell predictions to quantify the validation rate and compare against two state-of-the-art methods, DEEP-ENCODE and RFECS. We find that EP-DNN has superior accuracy with a validation rate of 91.6%, relative to 85.3% for DEEP-ENCODE and 85.5% for RFECS, for a given number of enhancer predictions and also scales better for a larger number of enhancer predictions. Moreover, our H1 → IMR90 predictions turn out to be more accurate than IMR90 → IMR90, potentially because H1 exhibits a richer signature set and our EP-DNN model is expressive enough to extract these subtleties. Our work shows how to leverage the full expressivity of deep learning models, using multiple hidden layers, while avoiding overfitting on the training data. We also lay the foundation for exploration of cross-cell enhancer predictions, potentially reducing the need for expensive experimentation.

  12. Prediction of Monthly Summer Monsoon Rainfall Using Global Climate Models Through Artificial Neural Network Technique

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nair, Archana; Singh, Gurjeet; Mohanty, U. C.

    2018-01-01

    The monthly prediction of summer monsoon rainfall is very challenging because of its complex and chaotic nature. In this study, a non-linear technique known as Artificial Neural Network (ANN) has been employed on the outputs of Global Climate Models (GCMs) to bring out the vagaries inherent in monthly rainfall prediction. The GCMs that are considered in the study are from the International Research Institute (IRI) (2-tier CCM3v6) and the National Centre for Environmental Prediction (Coupled-CFSv2). The ANN technique is applied on different ensemble members of the individual GCMs to obtain monthly scale prediction over India as a whole and over its spatial grid points. In the present study, a double-cross-validation and simple randomization technique was used to avoid the over-fitting during training process of the ANN model. The performance of the ANN-predicted rainfall from GCMs is judged by analysing the absolute error, box plots, percentile and difference in linear error in probability space. Results suggest that there is significant improvement in prediction skill of these GCMs after applying the ANN technique. The performance analysis reveals that the ANN model is able to capture the year to year variations in monsoon months with fairly good accuracy in extreme years as well. ANN model is also able to simulate the correct signs of rainfall anomalies over different spatial points of the Indian domain.

  13. EP-DNN: A Deep Neural Network-Based Global Enhancer Prediction Algorithm

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Seong Gon; Harwani, Mrudul; Grama, Ananth; Chaterji, Somali

    2016-12-01

    We present EP-DNN, a protocol for predicting enhancers based on chromatin features, in different cell types. Specifically, we use a deep neural network (DNN)-based architecture to extract enhancer signatures in a representative human embryonic stem cell type (H1) and a differentiated lung cell type (IMR90). We train EP-DNN using p300 binding sites, as enhancers, and TSS and random non-DHS sites, as non-enhancers. We perform same-cell and cross-cell predictions to quantify the validation rate and compare against two state-of-the-art methods, DEEP-ENCODE and RFECS. We find that EP-DNN has superior accuracy with a validation rate of 91.6%, relative to 85.3% for DEEP-ENCODE and 85.5% for RFECS, for a given number of enhancer predictions and also scales better for a larger number of enhancer predictions. Moreover, our H1 → IMR90 predictions turn out to be more accurate than IMR90 → IMR90, potentially because H1 exhibits a richer signature set and our EP-DNN model is expressive enough to extract these subtleties. Our work shows how to leverage the full expressivity of deep learning models, using multiple hidden layers, while avoiding overfitting on the training data. We also lay the foundation for exploration of cross-cell enhancer predictions, potentially reducing the need for expensive experimentation.

  14. Brain Dynamics in Predicting Driving Fatigue Using a Recurrent Self-Evolving Fuzzy Neural Network.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Yu-Ting; Lin, Yang-Yin; Wu, Shang-Lin; Chuang, Chun-Hsiang; Lin, Chin-Teng

    2016-02-01

    This paper proposes a generalized prediction system called a recurrent self-evolving fuzzy neural network (RSEFNN) that employs an on-line gradient descent learning rule to address the electroencephalography (EEG) regression problem in brain dynamics for driving fatigue. The cognitive states of drivers significantly affect driving safety; in particular, fatigue driving, or drowsy driving, endangers both the individual and the public. For this reason, the development of brain-computer interfaces (BCIs) that can identify drowsy driving states is a crucial and urgent topic of study. Many EEG-based BCIs have been developed as artificial auxiliary systems for use in various practical applications because of the benefits of measuring EEG signals. In the literature, the efficacy of EEG-based BCIs in recognition tasks has been limited by low resolutions. The system proposed in this paper represents the first attempt to use the recurrent fuzzy neural network (RFNN) architecture to increase adaptability in realistic EEG applications to overcome this bottleneck. This paper further analyzes brain dynamics in a simulated car driving task in a virtual-reality environment. The proposed RSEFNN model is evaluated using the generalized cross-subject approach, and the results indicate that the RSEFNN is superior to competing models regardless of the use of recurrent or nonrecurrent structures.

  15. USE OF DASHBOARDS IN PREDICTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE COMPANY USING NEURAL NETWORKS IN HOTEL MANAGEMENT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Peter GALLO

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available Tourism development currently represents a very important part of national economics and its development and growth. To ensure growth, managers are looking for new effective tools to optimize decision making. This paper addresses the issue of dashboards based on neural networks and their utilization in managerial decision-making processes. Dashboard based reporting is oriented towards the tourism sector in Slovakia. The result of the research is the proposed balanced ranking and prediction model using financial and nonfinancial indicators with the application of artificial intelligence which allows to reach high level of efficiency and accuracy in evaluation of financial and nonfinancial health of companies operating in the hospitality sector. The proposed model also brings a new managerial and scientific point of view on the in-depth analysis of performance of these facilities. The main function of the proposed model is to classify health of a hotel. For this purpose, the MLP (Multi-Layer Perceptron feedforward artificial neural network using backward propagation of errors was chosen as a training method.

  16. Neural network and wavelets in prediction of cosmic ray variability: The North Africa as study case

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zarrouk, Neïla; Bennaceur, Raouf

    2010-04-01

    Since the Earth is permanently bombarded with energetic cosmic rays particles, cosmic ray flux has been monitored by ground based neutron monitors for decades. In this work an attempt is made to investigate the decomposition and reconstructions provided by Morlet wavelet technique, using data series of cosmic rays variabilities, then to constitute from this wavelet analysis an input data base for the neural network system with which we can then predict decomposition coefficients and all related parameters for other points. Thus the latter are used for the recomposition step in which the plots and curves describing the relative cosmic rays intensities are obtained in any points on the earth in which we do not have any information about cosmic rays intensities. Although neural network associated with wavelets are not frequently used for cosmic rays time series, they seems very suitable and are a good choice to obtain these results. In fact we have succeeded to derive a very useful tool to obtain the decomposition coefficients, the main periods for each point on the Earth and on another hand we have now a kind of virtual NM for these locations like North Africa countries, Maroc, Algeria, Tunisia, Libya and Cairo. We have found the aspect of very known 11-years cycle: T1, we have also revealed the variation type of T2 and especially T3 cycles which seem to be induced by particular Earth's phenomena.

  17. Time response prediction of Brazilian Nuclear Power Plant temperature sensors using neural networks

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Santos, Roberto Carlos dos; Pereira, Iraci Martinez, E-mail: rcsantos@ipen.br [Instituto de Pesquisas Energeticas e Nucleares (IPEN/CNEN-SP), Sao Paulo, SP (Brazil)

    2011-07-01

    This work presents the results of the time constants values predicted from ANN using Angra I Brazilian nuclear power plant data. The signals obtained from LCSR loop current step response test sensors installed in the process presents noise end fluctuations that are inherent of operational conditions. Angra I nuclear power plant has 20 RTDs as part of the protection reactor system. The results were compared with those obtained from traditional way. Primary coolant RTDs (Resistance Temperature Detector) typically feed the plant's control and safety systems and must, therefore, be very accurate and have good dynamic performance. An in-situ test method called LCSR - loop current step response test was developed to measure remotely the response time of RTDs. In the LCSR method, the response time of the sensor is identified by means of the LCSR transformation that involves the dynamic response modal time constants determination using a nodal heat transfer model. For this reason, this calculation is not simple and requires specialized personnel. This work combines the two methodologies, Plunge test and LCSR test, using neural networks. With the use of neural networks it will not be necessary to use the LCSR transformation to determine sensor's time constant and this leads to more robust results. (author)

  18. A neural network based methodology to predict site-specific spectral acceleration values

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kamatchi, P.; Rajasankar, J.; Ramana, G. V.; Nagpal, A. K.

    2010-12-01

    A general neural network based methodology that has the potential to replace the computationally-intensive site-specific seismic analysis of structures is proposed in this paper. The basic framework of the methodology consists of a feed forward back propagation neural network algorithm with one hidden layer to represent the seismic potential of a region and soil amplification effects. The methodology is implemented and verified with parameters corresponding to Delhi city in India. For this purpose, strong ground motions are generated at bedrock level for a chosen site in Delhi due to earthquakes considered to originate from the central seismic gap of the Himalayan belt using necessary geological as well as geotechnical data. Surface level ground motions and corresponding site-specific response spectra are obtained by using a one-dimensional equivalent linear wave propagation model. Spectral acceleration values are considered as a target parameter to verify the performance of the methodology. Numerical studies carried out to validate the proposed methodology show that the errors in predicted spectral acceleration values are within acceptable limits for design purposes. The methodology is general in the sense that it can be applied to other seismically vulnerable regions and also can be updated by including more parameters depending on the state-of-the-art in the subject.

  19. Time response prediction of Brazilian Nuclear Power Plant temperature sensors using neural networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Santos, Roberto Carlos dos; Pereira, Iraci Martinez

    2011-01-01

    This work presents the results of the time constants values predicted from ANN using Angra I Brazilian nuclear power plant data. The signals obtained from LCSR loop current step response test sensors installed in the process presents noise end fluctuations that are inherent of operational conditions. Angra I nuclear power plant has 20 RTDs as part of the protection reactor system. The results were compared with those obtained from traditional way. Primary coolant RTDs (Resistance Temperature Detector) typically feed the plant's control and safety systems and must, therefore, be very accurate and have good dynamic performance. An in-situ test method called LCSR - loop current step response test was developed to measure remotely the response time of RTDs. In the LCSR method, the response time of the sensor is identified by means of the LCSR transformation that involves the dynamic response modal time constants determination using a nodal heat transfer model. For this reason, this calculation is not simple and requires specialized personnel. This work combines the two methodologies, Plunge test and LCSR test, using neural networks. With the use of neural networks it will not be necessary to use the LCSR transformation to determine sensor's time constant and this leads to more robust results. (author)

  20. Prediction of the rejection of organic compounds (neutral and ionic) by nanofiltration and reverse osmosis membranes using neural networks

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ammi, Yamina; Khaouane, Latifa; Hanini, Salah [University of Medea, Medea (Algeria)

    2015-11-15

    This work investigates the use of neural networks in modeling the rejection processes of organic compounds (neutral and ionic) by nanofiltration and reverse osmosis membranes. Three feed-forward neural network (NN) models, characterized by a similar structure (eleven neurons for NN1 and NN2 and twelve neurons for NN3 in the input layer, one hidden layer and one neuron in the output layer), are constructed with the aim of predicting the rejection of organic compounds (neutral and ionic). A set of 956 data points for NN1 and 701 data points for NN2 and NN3 were used to test the neural networks. 80%, 10%, and 10% of the total data were used, respectively, for the training, the validation, and the test of the three models. For the most promising neural network models, the predicted rejection values of the test dataset were compared to measured rejections values; good correlations were found (R= 0.9128 for NN1, R=0.9419 for NN2, and R=0.9527 for NN3). The root mean squared errors for the total dataset were 11.2430% for NN1, 9.0742% for NN2, and 8.2047% for NN3. Furthermore, the comparison between the predicted results and QSAR models shows that the neural network models gave far better.

  1. Prediction of the rejection of organic compounds (neutral and ionic) by nanofiltration and reverse osmosis membranes using neural networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ammi, Yamina; Khaouane, Latifa; Hanini, Salah

    2015-01-01

    This work investigates the use of neural networks in modeling the rejection processes of organic compounds (neutral and ionic) by nanofiltration and reverse osmosis membranes. Three feed-forward neural network (NN) models, characterized by a similar structure (eleven neurons for NN1 and NN2 and twelve neurons for NN3 in the input layer, one hidden layer and one neuron in the output layer), are constructed with the aim of predicting the rejection of organic compounds (neutral and ionic). A set of 956 data points for NN1 and 701 data points for NN2 and NN3 were used to test the neural networks. 80%, 10%, and 10% of the total data were used, respectively, for the training, the validation, and the test of the three models. For the most promising neural network models, the predicted rejection values of the test dataset were compared to measured rejections values; good correlations were found (R= 0.9128 for NN1, R=0.9419 for NN2, and R=0.9527 for NN3). The root mean squared errors for the total dataset were 11.2430% for NN1, 9.0742% for NN2, and 8.2047% for NN3. Furthermore, the comparison between the predicted results and QSAR models shows that the neural network models gave far better.

  2. Use of Neural Networks for modeling and predicting boiler's operating performance

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kljajić, Miroslav; Gvozdenac, Dušan; Vukmirović, Srdjan

    2012-01-01

    The need for high boiler operating performance requires the application of improved techniques for the rational use of energy. The analysis presented is guided by an effort to find possibilities for ways energy resources can be used wisely to secure a more efficient final energy supply. However, the biggest challenges are related to the variety and stochastic nature of influencing factors. The paper presents a method for modeling, assessing, and predicting the efficiency of boilers based on measured operating performance. The method utilizes a neural network approach to analyze and predict boiler efficiency and also to discover possibilities for enhancing efficiency. The analysis is based on energy surveys of 65 randomly selected boilers located at over 50 sites in the northern province of Serbia. These surveys included a representative range of industrial, public and commercial users of steam and hot water. The sample covered approximately 25% of all boilers in the province and yielded reliable and relevant results. By creating a database combined with soft computing assistance a wide range of possibilities are created for identifying and assessing factors of influence and making a critical evaluation of practices used on the supply side as a source of identified inefficiency. -- Highlights: ► We develop the model for assessing and predicting efficiency of boilers. ► The method implies the use of Artificial Neural Network approach for analysis. ► The results obtained correspond well to collected and measured data. ► Findings confirm and present good abilities of preventive or proactive approach. ► Analysis reveals and specifies opportunities for increasing efficiency of boilers.

  3. A biological network-based regularized artificial neural network model for robust phenotype prediction from gene expression data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kang, Tianyu; Ding, Wei; Zhang, Luoyan; Ziemek, Daniel; Zarringhalam, Kourosh

    2017-12-19

    Stratification of patient subpopulations that respond favorably to treatment or experience and adverse reaction is an essential step toward development of new personalized therapies and diagnostics. It is currently feasible to generate omic-scale biological measurements for all patients in a study, providing an opportunity for machine learning models to identify molecular markers for disease diagnosis and progression. However, the high variability of genetic background in human populations hampers the reproducibility of omic-scale markers. In this paper, we develop a biological network-based regularized artificial neural network model for prediction of phenotype from transcriptomic measurements in clinical trials. To improve model sparsity and the overall reproducibility of the model, we incorporate regularization for simultaneous shrinkage of gene sets based on active upstream regulatory mechanisms into the model. We benchmark our method against various regression, support vector machines and artificial neural network models and demonstrate the ability of our method in predicting the clinical outcomes using clinical trial data on acute rejection in kidney transplantation and response to Infliximab in ulcerative colitis. We show that integration of prior biological knowledge into the classification as developed in this paper, significantly improves the robustness and generalizability of predictions to independent datasets. We provide a Java code of our algorithm along with a parsed version of the STRING DB database. In summary, we present a method for prediction of clinical phenotypes using baseline genome-wide expression data that makes use of prior biological knowledge on gene-regulatory interactions in order to increase robustness and reproducibility of omic-scale markers. The integrated group-wise regularization methods increases the interpretability of biological signatures and gives stable performance estimates across independent test sets.

  4. Application of neural networks and its prospect. 4. Prediction of major disruptions in tokamak plasmas, analyses of time series data

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yoshino, Ryuji

    2006-01-01

    Disruption prediction of tokamak plasma has been studied by neural network. The disruption prediction performances by neural network are estimated by the prediction success rate, false alarm rate, and time prior to disruption. The current driving type disruption is predicted by time series data, and plasma lifetime, risk of disruption and plasma stability. Some disruptions generated by density limit, impurity mixture, error magnetic field can be predicted 100 % of prediction success rate by the premonitory symptoms. The pressure driving type disruption phenomena generate some hundred micro seconds before, so that the operation limits such as β N limit of DIII-D and density limit of ADITYA were investigated. The false alarm rate was decreased by β N limit training under stable discharge. The pressure driving disruption generated with increasing plasma pressure can be predicted about 90 % by evaluating plasma stability. (S.Y.)

  5. Artificial neural network (ANN)-based prediction of depth filter loading capacity for filter sizing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Agarwal, Harshit; Rathore, Anurag S; Hadpe, Sandeep Ramesh; Alva, Solomon J

    2016-11-01

    This article presents an application of artificial neural network (ANN) modelling towards prediction of depth filter loading capacity for clarification of a monoclonal antibody (mAb) product during commercial manufacturing. The effect of operating parameters on filter loading capacity was evaluated based on the analysis of change in the differential pressure (DP) as a function of time. The proposed ANN model uses inlet stream properties (feed turbidity, feed cell count, feed cell viability), flux, and time to predict the corresponding DP. The ANN contained a single output layer with ten neurons in hidden layer and employed a sigmoidal activation function. This network was trained with 174 training points, 37 validation points, and 37 test points. Further, a pressure cut-off of 1.1 bar was used for sizing the filter area required under each operating condition. The modelling results showed that there was excellent agreement between the predicted and experimental data with a regression coefficient (R 2 ) of 0.98. The developed ANN model was used for performing variable depth filter sizing for different clarification lots. Monte-Carlo simulation was performed to estimate the cost savings by using different filter areas for different clarification lots rather than using the same filter area. A 10% saving in cost of goods was obtained for this operation. © 2016 American Institute of Chemical Engineers Biotechnol. Prog., 32:1436-1443, 2016. © 2016 American Institute of Chemical Engineers.

  6. Development and Validation of a Deep Neural Network Model for Prediction of Postoperative In-hospital Mortality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Christine K; Hofer, Ira; Gabel, Eilon; Baldi, Pierre; Cannesson, Maxime

    2018-04-17

    The authors tested the hypothesis that deep neural networks trained on intraoperative features can predict postoperative in-hospital mortality. The data used to train and validate the algorithm consists of 59,985 patients with 87 features extracted at the end of surgery. Feed-forward networks with a logistic output were trained using stochastic gradient descent with momentum. The deep neural networks were trained on 80% of the data, with 20% reserved for testing. The authors assessed improvement of the deep neural network by adding American Society of Anesthesiologists (ASA) Physical Status Classification and robustness of the deep neural network to a reduced feature set. The networks were then compared to ASA Physical Status, logistic regression, and other published clinical scores including the Surgical Apgar, Preoperative Score to Predict Postoperative Mortality, Risk Quantification Index, and the Risk Stratification Index. In-hospital mortality in the training and test sets were 0.81% and 0.73%. The deep neural network with a reduced feature set and ASA Physical Status classification had the highest area under the receiver operating characteristics curve, 0.91 (95% CI, 0.88 to 0.93). The highest logistic regression area under the curve was found with a reduced feature set and ASA Physical Status (0.90, 95% CI, 0.87 to 0.93). The Risk Stratification Index had the highest area under the receiver operating characteristics curve, at 0.97 (95% CI, 0.94 to 0.99). Deep neural networks can predict in-hospital mortality based on automatically extractable intraoperative data, but are not (yet) superior to existing methods.

  7. Accurate bearing remaining useful life prediction based on Weibull distribution and artificial neural network

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ben Ali, Jaouher; Chebel-Morello, Brigitte; Saidi, Lotfi; Malinowski, Simon; Fnaiech, Farhat

    2015-05-01

    Accurate remaining useful life (RUL) prediction of critical assets is an important challenge in condition based maintenance to improve reliability and decrease machine's breakdown and maintenance's cost. Bearing is one of the most important components in industries which need to be monitored and the user should predict its RUL. The challenge of this study is to propose an original feature able to evaluate the health state of bearings and to estimate their RUL by Prognostics and Health Management (PHM) techniques. In this paper, the proposed method is based on the data-driven prognostic approach. The combination of Simplified Fuzzy Adaptive Resonance Theory Map (SFAM) neural network and Weibull distribution (WD) is explored. WD is used just in the training phase to fit measurement and to avoid areas of fluctuation in the time domain. SFAM training process is based on fitted measurements at present and previous inspection time points as input. However, the SFAM testing process is based on real measurements at present and previous inspections. Thanks to the fuzzy learning process, SFAM has an important ability and a good performance to learn nonlinear time series. As output, seven classes are defined; healthy bearing and six states for bearing degradation. In order to find the optimal RUL prediction, a smoothing phase is proposed in this paper. Experimental results show that the proposed method can reliably predict the RUL of rolling element bearings (REBs) based on vibration signals. The proposed prediction approach can be applied to prognostic other various mechanical assets.

  8. Prediction of Breeding Values for Dairy Cattle Using Artificial Neural Networks and Neuro-Fuzzy Systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Saleh Shahinfar

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Developing machine learning and soft computing techniques has provided many opportunities for researchers to establish new analytical methods in different areas of science. The objective of this study is to investigate the potential of two types of intelligent learning methods, artificial neural networks and neuro-fuzzy systems, in order to estimate breeding values (EBV of Iranian dairy cattle. Initially, the breeding values of lactating Holstein cows for milk and fat yield were estimated using conventional best linear unbiased prediction (BLUP with an animal model. Once that was established, a multilayer perceptron was used to build ANN to predict breeding values from the performance data of selection candidates. Subsequently, fuzzy logic was used to form an NFS, a hybrid intelligent system that was implemented via a local linear model tree algorithm. For milk yield the correlations between EBV and EBV predicted by the ANN and NFS were 0.92 and 0.93, respectively. Corresponding correlations for fat yield were 0.93 and 0.93, respectively. Correlations between multitrait predictions of EBVs for milk and fat yield when predicted simultaneously by ANN were 0.93 and 0.93, respectively, whereas corresponding correlations with reference EBV for multitrait NFS were 0.94 and 0.95, respectively, for milk and fat production.

  9. Using artificial neural network and satellite data to predict rice yield in Bangladesh

    Science.gov (United States)

    Akhand, Kawsar; Nizamuddin, Mohammad; Roytman, Leonid; Kogan, Felix; Goldberg, Mitch

    2015-09-01

    Rice production in Bangladesh is a crucial part of the national economy and providing about 70 percent of an average citizen's total calorie intake. The demand for rice is constantly rising as the new populations are added in every year in Bangladesh. Due to the increase in population, the cultivation land decreases. In addition, Bangladesh is faced with production constraints such as drought, flooding, salinity, lack of irrigation facilities and lack of modern technology. To maintain self sufficiency in rice, Bangladesh will have to continue to expand rice production by increasing yield at a rate that is at least equal to the population growth until the demand of rice has stabilized. Accurate rice yield prediction is one of the most important challenges in managing supply and demand of rice as well as decision making processes. Artificial Neural Network (ANN) is used to construct a model to predict Aus rice yield in Bangladesh. Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR)-based remote sensing satellite data vegetation health (VH) indices (Vegetation Condition Index (VCI) and Temperature Condition Index (TCI) are used as input variables and official statistics of Aus rice yield is used as target variable for ANN prediction model. The result obtained with ANN method is encouraging and the error of prediction is less than 10%. Therefore, prediction can play an important role in planning and storing of sufficient rice to face in any future uncertainty.

  10. Transformer Incipient Fault Prediction Using Combined Artificial Neural Network and Various Particle Swarm Optimisation Techniques.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hazlee Azil Illias

    Full Text Available It is important to predict the incipient fault in transformer oil accurately so that the maintenance of transformer oil can be performed correctly, reducing the cost of maintenance and minimise the error. Dissolved gas analysis (DGA has been widely used to predict the incipient fault in power transformers. However, sometimes the existing DGA methods yield inaccurate prediction of the incipient fault in transformer oil because each method is only suitable for certain conditions. Many previous works have reported on the use of intelligence methods to predict the transformer faults. However, it is believed that the accuracy of the previously proposed methods can still be improved. Since artificial neural network (ANN and particle swarm optimisation (PSO techniques have never been used in the previously reported work, this work proposes a combination of ANN and various PSO techniques to predict the transformer incipient fault. The advantages of PSO are simplicity and easy implementation. The effectiveness of various PSO techniques in combination with ANN is validated by comparison with the results from the actual fault diagnosis, an existing diagnosis method and ANN alone. Comparison of the results from the proposed methods with the previously reported work was also performed to show the improvement of the proposed methods. It was found that the proposed ANN-Evolutionary PSO method yields the highest percentage of correct identification for transformer fault type than the existing diagnosis method and previously reported works.

  11. Transformer Incipient Fault Prediction Using Combined Artificial Neural Network and Various Particle Swarm Optimisation Techniques.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Illias, Hazlee Azil; Chai, Xin Rui; Abu Bakar, Ab Halim; Mokhlis, Hazlie

    2015-01-01

    It is important to predict the incipient fault in transformer oil accurately so that the maintenance of transformer oil can be performed correctly, reducing the cost of maintenance and minimise the error. Dissolved gas analysis (DGA) has been widely used to predict the incipient fault in power transformers. However, sometimes the existing DGA methods yield inaccurate prediction of the incipient fault in transformer oil because each method is only suitable for certain conditions. Many previous works have reported on the use of intelligence methods to predict the transformer faults. However, it is believed that the accuracy of the previously proposed methods can still be improved. Since artificial neural network (ANN) and particle swarm optimisation (PSO) techniques have never been used in the previously reported work, this work proposes a combination of ANN and various PSO techniques to predict the transformer incipient fault. The advantages of PSO are simplicity and easy implementation. The effectiveness of various PSO techniques in combination with ANN is validated by comparison with the results from the actual fault diagnosis, an existing diagnosis method and ANN alone. Comparison of the results from the proposed methods with the previously reported work was also performed to show the improvement of the proposed methods. It was found that the proposed ANN-Evolutionary PSO method yields the highest percentage of correct identification for transformer fault type than the existing diagnosis method and previously reported works.

  12. XenoSite: accurately predicting CYP-mediated sites of metabolism with neural networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zaretzki, Jed; Matlock, Matthew; Swamidass, S Joshua

    2013-12-23

    Understanding how xenobiotic molecules are metabolized is important because it influences the safety, efficacy, and dose of medicines and how they can be modified to improve these properties. The cytochrome P450s (CYPs) are proteins responsible for metabolizing 90% of drugs on the market, and many computational methods can predict which atomic sites of a molecule--sites of metabolism (SOMs)--are modified during CYP-mediated metabolism. This study improves on prior methods of predicting CYP-mediated SOMs by using new descriptors and machine learning based on neural networks. The new method, XenoSite, is faster to train and more accurate by as much as 4% or 5% for some isozymes. Furthermore, some "incorrect" predictions made by XenoSite were subsequently validated as correct predictions by revaluation of the source literature. Moreover, XenoSite output is interpretable as a probability, which reflects both the confidence of the model that a particular atom is metabolized and the statistical likelihood that its prediction for that atom is correct.

  13. Prediction of Thermal Environment in a Large Space Using Artificial Neural Network

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hyun-Jung Yoon

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available Since the thermal environment of large space buildings such as stadiums can vary depending on the location of the stands, it is important to divide them into different zones and evaluate their thermal environment separately. The thermal environment can be evaluated using physical values measured with the sensors, but the occupant density of the stadium stands is high, which limits the locations available to install the sensors. As a method to resolve the limitations of installing the sensors, we propose a method to predict the thermal environment of each zone in a large space. We set six key thermal factors affecting the thermal environment in a large space to be predicted factors (indoor air temperature, mean radiant temperature, and clothing and the fixed factors (air velocity, metabolic rate, and relative humidity. Using artificial neural network (ANN models and the outdoor air temperature and the surface temperature of the interior walls around the stands as input data, we developed a method to predict the three thermal factors. Learning and verification datasets were established using STAR CCM+ (2016.10, Siemens PLM software, Plano, TX, USA. An analysis of each model’s prediction results showed that the prediction accuracy increased with the number of learning data points. The thermal environment evaluation process developed in this study can be used to control heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC facilities in each zone in a large space building with sufficient learning by ANN models at the building testing or the evaluation stage.

  14. Coupled Model of Artificial Neural Network and Grey Model for Tendency Prediction of Labor Turnover

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yueru Ma

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The tendency of labor turnover in the Chinese enterprise shows the characteristics of seasonal fluctuations and irregular distribution of various factors, especially the Chinese traditional social and cultural characteristics. In this paper, we present a coupled model for the tendency prediction of labor turnover. In the model, a time series of tendency prediction of labor turnover was expressed as trend item and its random item. Trend item of tendency prediction of labor turnover is predicted using Grey theory. Random item of trend item is calculated by artificial neural network model (ANN. A case study is presented by the data of 24 months in a Chinese matured enterprise. The model uses the advantages of “accumulative generation” of a Grey prediction method, which weakens the original sequence of random disturbance factors and increases the regularity of data. It also takes full advantage of the ANN model approximation performance, which has a capacity to solve economic problems rapidly, describes the nonlinear relationship easily, and avoids the defects of Grey theory.

  15. Improving Gastric Cancer Outcome Prediction Using Single Time-Point Artificial Neural Network Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nilsaz-Dezfouli, Hamid; Abu-Bakar, Mohd Rizam; Arasan, Jayanthi; Adam, Mohd Bakri; Pourhoseingholi, Mohamad Amin

    2017-01-01

    In cancer studies, the prediction of cancer outcome based on a set of prognostic variables has been a long-standing topic of interest. Current statistical methods for survival analysis offer the possibility of modelling cancer survivability but require unrealistic assumptions about the survival time distribution or proportionality of hazard. Therefore, attention must be paid in developing nonlinear models with less restrictive assumptions. Artificial neural network (ANN) models are primarily useful in prediction when nonlinear approaches are required to sift through the plethora of available information. The applications of ANN models for prognostic and diagnostic classification in medicine have attracted a lot of interest. The applications of ANN models in modelling the survival of patients with gastric cancer have been discussed in some studies without completely considering the censored data. This study proposes an ANN model for predicting gastric cancer survivability, considering the censored data. Five separate single time-point ANN models were developed to predict the outcome of patients after 1, 2, 3, 4, and 5 years. The performance of ANN model in predicting the probabilities of death is consistently high for all time points according to the accuracy and the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve. PMID:28469384

  16. Transformer Incipient Fault Prediction Using Combined Artificial Neural Network and Various Particle Swarm Optimisation Techniques

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-01-01

    It is important to predict the incipient fault in transformer oil accurately so that the maintenance of transformer oil can be performed correctly, reducing the cost of maintenance and minimise the error. Dissolved gas analysis (DGA) has been widely used to predict the incipient fault in power transformers. However, sometimes the existing DGA methods yield inaccurate prediction of the incipient fault in transformer oil because each method is only suitable for certain conditions. Many previous works have reported on the use of intelligence methods to predict the transformer faults. However, it is believed that the accuracy of the previously proposed methods can still be improved. Since artificial neural network (ANN) and particle swarm optimisation (PSO) techniques have never been used in the previously reported work, this work proposes a combination of ANN and various PSO techniques to predict the transformer incipient fault. The advantages of PSO are simplicity and easy implementation. The effectiveness of various PSO techniques in combination with ANN is validated by comparison with the results from the actual fault diagnosis, an existing diagnosis method and ANN alone. Comparison of the results from the proposed methods with the previously reported work was also performed to show the improvement of the proposed methods. It was found that the proposed ANN-Evolutionary PSO method yields the highest percentage of correct identification for transformer fault type than the existing diagnosis method and previously reported works. PMID:26103634

  17. A sparse autoencoder-based deep neural network for protein solvent accessibility and contact number prediction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deng, Lei; Fan, Chao; Zeng, Zhiwen

    2017-12-28

    Direct prediction of the three-dimensional (3D) structures of proteins from one-dimensional (1D) sequences is a challenging problem. Significant structural characteristics such as solvent accessibility and contact number are essential for deriving restrains in modeling protein folding and protein 3D structure. Thus, accurately predicting these features is a critical step for 3D protein structure building. In this study, we present DeepSacon, a computational method that can effectively predict protein solvent accessibility and contact number by using a deep neural network, which is built based on stacked autoencoder and a dropout method. The results demonstrate that our proposed DeepSacon achieves a significant improvement in the prediction quality compared with the state-of-the-art methods. We obtain 0.70 three-state accuracy for solvent accessibility, 0.33 15-state accuracy and 0.74 Pearson Correlation Coefficient (PCC) for the contact number on the 5729 monomeric soluble globular protein dataset. We also evaluate the performance on the CASP11 benchmark dataset, DeepSacon achieves 0.68 three-state accuracy and 0.69 PCC for solvent accessibility and contact number, respectively. We have shown that DeepSacon can reliably predict solvent accessibility and contact number with stacked sparse autoencoder and a dropout approach.

  18. Predicting combined sewer overflows chamber depth using artificial neural networks with rainfall radar data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mounce, S R; Shepherd, W; Sailor, G; Shucksmith, J; Saul, A J

    2014-01-01

    Combined sewer overflows (CSOs) represent a common feature in combined urban drainage systems and are used to discharge excess water to the environment during heavy storms. To better understand the performance of CSOs, the UK water industry has installed a large number of monitoring systems that provide data for these assets. This paper presents research into the prediction of the hydraulic performance of CSOs using artificial neural networks (ANN) as an alternative to hydraulic models. Previous work has explored using an ANN model for the prediction of chamber depth using time series for depth and rain gauge data. Rainfall intensity data that can be provided by rainfall radar devices can be used to improve on this approach. Results are presented using real data from a CSO for a catchment in the North of England, UK. An ANN model trained with the pseudo-inverse rule was shown to be capable of predicting CSO depth with less than 5% error for predictions more than 1 hour ahead for unseen data. Such predictive approaches are important to the future management of combined sewer systems.

  19. Volume fraction prediction in biphasic flow using nuclear technique and artificial neural network

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Salgado, Cesar M.; Brandao, Luis E.B., E-mail: otero@ien.gov.br, E-mail: brandao@ien.gov.br [Instituto de Engenharia Nuclear (IEN/CNEN-RJ), Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil)

    2015-07-01

    The volume fraction is one of the most important parameters used to characterize air-liquid two-phase flows. It is a physical value to determine other parameters, such as the phase's densities and to determine the flow rate of each phase. These parameters are important to predict the flow pattern and to determine a mathematical model for the system. To study, for example, heat transfer and pressure drop. This work presents a methodology for volume fractions prediction in water-gas stratified flow regime using the nuclear technique and artificial intelligence. The volume fractions calculate in biphasic flow systems is complex and the analysis by means of analytical equations becomes very difficult. The approach is based on gamma-ray pulse height distributions pattern recognition by means of the artificial neural network. The detection system uses appropriate broad beam geometry, comprised of a ({sup 137}Cs) energy gamma-ray source and a NaI(Tl) scintillation detector in order measure transmitted beam whose the counts rates are influenced by the phases composition. These distributions are directly used by the network without any parameterization of the measured signal. The ideal and static theoretical models for stratified regime have been developed using MCNP-X code, which was used to provide training, test and validation data for the network. The detector also was modeled with this code and the results were compared to experimental photopeak efficiency measurements of radiation sources. The proposed network could obtain with satisfactory prediction of the volume fraction in water-gas system, demonstrating to be a promising approach for this purpose. (author)

  20. Volume fraction prediction in biphasic flow using nuclear technique and artificial neural network

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Salgado, Cesar M.; Brandao, Luis E.B.

    2015-01-01

    The volume fraction is one of the most important parameters used to characterize air-liquid two-phase flows. It is a physical value to determine other parameters, such as the phase's densities and to determine the flow rate of each phase. These parameters are important to predict the flow pattern and to determine a mathematical model for the system. To study, for example, heat transfer and pressure drop. This work presents a methodology for volume fractions prediction in water-gas stratified flow regime using the nuclear technique and artificial intelligence. The volume fractions calculate in biphasic flow systems is complex and the analysis by means of analytical equations becomes very difficult. The approach is based on gamma-ray pulse height distributions pattern recognition by means of the artificial neural network. The detection system uses appropriate broad beam geometry, comprised of a ( 137 Cs) energy gamma-ray source and a NaI(Tl) scintillation detector in order measure transmitted beam whose the counts rates are influenced by the phases composition. These distributions are directly used by the network without any parameterization of the measured signal. The ideal and static theoretical models for stratified regime have been developed using MCNP-X code, which was used to provide training, test and validation data for the network. The detector also was modeled with this code and the results were compared to experimental photopeak efficiency measurements of radiation sources. The proposed network could obtain with satisfactory prediction of the volume fraction in water-gas system, demonstrating to be a promising approach for this purpose. (author)

  1. Deep Neural Network for Structural Prediction and Lane Detection in Traffic Scene.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Jun; Mei, Xue; Prokhorov, Danil; Tao, Dacheng

    2017-03-01

    Hierarchical neural networks have been shown to be effective in learning representative image features and recognizing object classes. However, most existing networks combine the low/middle level cues for classification without accounting for any spatial structures. For applications such as understanding a scene, how the visual cues are spatially distributed in an image becomes essential for successful analysis. This paper extends the framework of deep neural networks by accounting for the structural cues in the visual signals. In particular, two kinds of neural networks have been proposed. First, we develop a multitask deep convolutional network, which simultaneously detects the presence of the target and the geometric attributes (location and orientation) of the target with respect to the region of interest. Second, a recurrent neuron layer is adopted for structured visual detection. The recurrent neurons can deal with the spatial distribution of visible cues belonging to an object whose shape or structure is difficult to explicitly define. Both the networks are demonstrated by the practical task of detecting lane boundaries in traffic scenes. The multitask convolutional neural network provides auxiliary geometric information to help the subsequent modeling of the given lane structures. The recurrent neural network automatically detects lane boundaries, including those areas containing no marks, without any explicit prior knowledge or secondary modeling.

  2. Ordinal convolutional neural networks for predicting RDoC positive valence psychiatric symptom severity scores.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rios, Anthony; Kavuluru, Ramakanth

    2017-11-01

    The CEGS N-GRID 2016 Shared Task in Clinical Natural Language Processing (NLP) provided a set of 1000 neuropsychiatric notes to participants as part of a competition to predict psychiatric symptom severity scores. This paper summarizes our methods, results, and experiences based on our participation in the second track of the shared task. Classical methods of text classification usually fall into one of three problem types: binary, multi-class, and multi-label classification. In this effort, we study ordinal regression problems with text data where misclassifications are penalized differently based on how far apart the ground truth and model predictions are on the ordinal scale. Specifically, we present our entries (methods and results) in the N-GRID shared task in predicting research domain criteria (RDoC) positive valence ordinal symptom severity scores (absent, mild, moderate, and severe) from psychiatric notes. We propose a novel convolutional neural network (CNN) model designed to handle ordinal regression tasks on psychiatric notes. Broadly speaking, our model combines an ordinal loss function, a CNN, and conventional feature engineering (wide features) into a single model which is learned end-to-end. Given interpretability is an important concern with nonlinear models, we apply a recent approach called locally interpretable model-agnostic explanation (LIME) to identify important words that lead to instance specific predictions. Our best model entered into the shared task placed third among 24 teams and scored a macro mean absolute error (MMAE) based normalized score (100·(1-MMAE)) of 83.86. Since the competition, we improved our score (using basic ensembling) to 85.55, comparable with the winning shared task entry. Applying LIME to model predictions, we demonstrate the feasibility of instance specific prediction interpretation by identifying words that led to a particular decision. In this paper, we present a method that successfully uses wide features and

  3. Predictive modeling of performance of a helium charged Stirling engine using an artificial neural network

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Özgören, Yaşar Önder; Çetinkaya, Selim; Sarıdemir, Suat; Çiçek, Adem; Kara, Fuat

    2013-01-01

    Highlights: ► Max torque and power values were obtained at 3.5 bar Pch, 1273 K Hst and 1.4:1 r. ► According to ANOVA, the most influential parameter on power was Hst with 48.75%. ► According to ANOVA, the most influential parameter on torque was Hst with 41.78%. ► ANN (R 2 = 99.8% for T, P) was superior to regression method (R 2 = 92% for T, 81% for P). ► LM was the best learning algorithm in predicting both power and torque. - Abstract: In this study, an artificial neural network (ANN) model was developed to predict the torque and power of a beta-type Stirling engine using helium as the working fluid. The best results were obtained by 5-11-7-1 and 5-13-7-1 network architectures, with double hidden layers for the torque and power respectively. For these network architectures, the Levenberg–Marquardt (LM) learning algorithm was used. Engine performance values predicted with the developed ANN model were compared with the actual performance values measured experimentally, and substantially coinciding results were observed. After ANN training, correlation coefficients (R 2 ) of both engine performance values for testing and training data were very close to 1. Similarly, root-mean-square error (RMSE) and mean error percentage (MEP) values for the testing and training data were less than 0.02% and 3.5% respectively. These results showed that the ANN is an acceptable model for prediction of the torque and power of the beta-type Stirling engine

  4. Artificial neural networks for the performance prediction of heat pump hot water heaters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mathioulakis, E.; Panaras, G.; Belessiotis, V.

    2018-02-01

    The rapid progression in the use of heat pumps, due to the decrease in the equipment cost, together with the favourable economics of the consumed electrical energy, has been combined with the wide dissemination of air-to-water heat pumps (AWHPs) in the residential sector. The entrance of the respective systems in the commercial sector has made important the modelling of the processes. In this work, the suitability of artificial neural networks (ANN) in the modelling of AWHPs is investigated. The ambient air temperature in the evaporator inlet and the water temperature in the condenser inlet have been selected as the input variables; energy performance indices and quantities characterising the operation of the system have been selected as output variables. The results verify that the, easy-to-implement, trained ANN can represent an effective tool for the prediction of the AWHP performance in various operation conditions and the parametrical investigation of their behaviour.

  5. The prediction in computer color matching of dentistry based on GA+BP neural network.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Haisheng; Lai, Long; Chen, Li; Lu, Cheng; Cai, Qiang

    2015-01-01

    Although the use of computer color matching can reduce the influence of subjective factors by technicians, matching the color of a natural tooth with a ceramic restoration is still one of the most challenging topics in esthetic prosthodontics. Back propagation neural network (BPNN) has already been introduced into the computer color matching in dentistry, but it has disadvantages such as unstable and low accuracy. In our study, we adopt genetic algorithm (GA) to optimize the initial weights and threshold values in BPNN for improving the matching precision. To our knowledge, we firstly combine the BPNN with GA in computer color matching in dentistry. Extensive experiments demonstrate that the proposed method improves the precision and prediction robustness of the color matching in restorative dentistry.

  6. Predicting mastitis in dairy cows using neural networks and generalized additive models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Anantharama Ankinakatte, Smitha; Norberg, Elise; Løvendahl, Peter

    2013-01-01

    The aim of this paper is to develop and compare methods for early detection of oncoming mastitis with automated recorded data. The data were collected at the Danish Cattle Research Center (Tjele, Denmark). As indicators of mastitis, electrical conductivity (EC), somatic cell scores (SCS), lactate...... that combines residual components into a score to improve the model. To develop and verify the model, the data are randomly divided into training and validation data sets. To predict the occurrence of mastitis, neural network models (NNs) and generalized additive models (GAMs) are developed using the training...... classification with all indicators, using individual residuals rather than factor scores. When SCS is excluded, GAMs shows better classification result when milk yield is also excluded. In conclusion, the study shows that NNs and GAMs are similar in their ability to detect mastitis, a sensitivity of almost 75...

  7. Crystal Graph Convolutional Neural Networks for an Accurate and Interpretable Prediction of Material Properties

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xie, Tian; Grossman, Jeffrey C.

    2018-04-01

    The use of machine learning methods for accelerating the design of crystalline materials usually requires manually constructed feature vectors or complex transformation of atom coordinates to input the crystal structure, which either constrains the model to certain crystal types or makes it difficult to provide chemical insights. Here, we develop a crystal graph convolutional neural networks framework to directly learn material properties from the connection of atoms in the crystal, providing a universal and interpretable representation of crystalline materials. Our method provides a highly accurate prediction of density functional theory calculated properties for eight different properties of crystals with various structure types and compositions after being trained with 1 04 data points. Further, our framework is interpretable because one can extract the contributions from local chemical environments to global properties. Using an example of perovskites, we show how this information can be utilized to discover empirical rules for materials design.

  8. Relative Permittivity of Carbon Dioxide + Ethanol Mixtures prediction by means of Artificial Neural Networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gonzalo Astray

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available CO2 + ethanol mixtures have a huge scientific interest and enormous relevance for many industrial processes. Obtaining of their chemical and physical properties is a fundamental task. Relative permittivity (r of these mixtures is a key property because allows a better knowledge of the structure and the interactions in other media. In this work predictive values of relative permittivity (r of carbon dioxide + ethanol mixtures were obtained implementing artificial neural networks (ANNs. They are used successfully in very different fields; therefore it is a very useful tool. In this case the obtained results enhance the ones from the usual multiple linear regression analysis. In both cases mass fraction, pressure and temperature experimental data from a direct capacitance method were used.

  9. Analysis of infant cry through weighted linear prediction cepstral coefficients and Probabilistic Neural Network.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hariharan, M; Chee, Lim Sin; Yaacob, Sazali

    2012-06-01

    Acoustic analysis of infant cry signals has been proven to be an excellent tool in the area of automatic detection of pathological status of an infant. This paper investigates the application of parameter weighting for linear prediction cepstral coefficients (LPCCs) to provide the robust representation of infant cry signals. Three classes of infant cry signals were considered such as normal cry signals, cry signals from deaf babies and babies with asphyxia. A Probabilistic Neural Network (PNN) is suggested to classify the infant cry signals into normal and pathological cries. PNN is trained with different spread factor or smoothing parameter to obtain better classification accuracy. The experimental results demonstrate that the suggested features and classification algorithms give very promising classification accuracy of above 98% and it expounds that the suggested method can be used to help medical professionals for diagnosing pathological status of an infant from cry signals.

  10. Prediction of geomagnetic storm using neural networks: Comparison of the efficiency of the Satellite and ground-based input parameters

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stepanova, Marina; Antonova, Elizavieta; Munos-Uribe, F A; Gordo, S L Gomez; Torres-Sanchez, M V

    2008-01-01

    Different kinds of neural networks have established themselves as an effective tool in the prediction of different geomagnetic indices, including the Dst being the most important constituent for determination of the impact of Space Weather on the human life. Feed-forward networks with one hidden layer are used to forecast the Dst variation, using separately the solar wind paramenters, polar cap index, and auroral electrojet index as input parameters. It was found that in all three cases the storm-time intervals were predicted much more precisely as quite time intervals. The majority of cross-correlation coefficients between predicted and observed Dst of strong geomagnetic storms are situated between 0.8 and 0.9. Changes in the neural network architecture, including the number of nodes in the input and hidden layers and the transfer functions between them lead to an improvement of a network performance up to 10%.

  11. Thermal stress management of a solid oxide fuel cell using neural network predictive control

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hajimolana, S.A.; Tonekabonimoghadam, S.M.; Hussain, M.A.; Chakrabarti, M.H.; Jayakumar, N.S.; Hashim, M.A.

    2013-01-01

    In SOFC (solid oxide fuel cell) systems operating at high temperatures, temperature fluctuation induces a thermal stress in the electrodes and electrolyte ceramics; therefore, the cell temperature distribution is recommended to be kept as constant as possible. In the present work, a mathematical model based on first principles is presented to avert such temperature fluctuations. The fuel cell running on ammonia is divided into five subsystems and factors such as mass/energy/momentum transfer, diffusion through porous media, electrochemical reactions, and polarization losses inside the subsystems are presented. Dynamic cell-tube temperature responses of the cell to step changes in conditions of the feed streams is investigated. The results of simulation indicate that the transient response of the SOFC is mainly influenced by the temperature dynamics. It is also shown that the inlet stream temperatures are associated with the highest long term start-up time (467 s) among other parameters in terms of step changes. In contrast the step change in fuel velocity has the lowest influence on the start-up time (about 190 s from initial steady state to the new steady state) among other parameters. A NNPC (neural network predictive controller) is then implemented for thermal stress management by controlling the cell tube temperature to avoid performance degradation by manipulating the temperature of the inlet air stream. The regulatory performance of the NNPC is compared with a PI (proportional–integral) controller. The performance of the control system confirms that NNPC is a non-linear-model-based strategy which can assure less oscillating control responses with shorter settling times in comparison to the PI controller. - Highlights: • Effect of the operating parameters on the fuel cell temperature is analysed. • A neural network predictive controller (NNPC) is implemented. • The performance of NNPC is compared with the PI controller. • A detailed model is used for

  12. Prediction of extrusion die wear by use of an artificial neural network

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Naidim, O.; Epureanu, A.; Tabacaru, V.

    2000-01-01

    In its vision of designing a technology, the process of optimisation of a material extrusion is an on-line process. The tool life is an important factor in selecting the objective function that represents the cost of the extruded product. This work is intended to realise the prediction of die wear evolution within the extrusion process, based on information obtained from numerical modelling. In order to reduce the number of experiments and to realise a flexible process of designing the necessary tools for an extrusion process, finite element (FE) modelling was used to determine designing space against the shape of the extruded product, the work conditions, the material and wear conditions. The information generated using FE was then used to train a neural network using backpropagation algorithm. Parameters considered in constructing neural networks include error tolerance, the factor of estimation of the 'best solution', the number of training cycles and the number of hidden layers. A general formula of calculus applicable in any extrusion process can be determined by establishing a relation between the stress state obtained within the extrusion process, deformation speed and friction on one hand, and wear on the other hand. The (1/W) parameter, where W is the tool wear in the active zone of the extrusion die, is a measure taken into account in calculating the die life as written in (1); this is the reason why it is important to make prediction of W value for geometries used in designing process or to optimise the die shape in order to reduce wear. (author)

  13. Critical heat flux prediction by using radial basis function and multilayer perceptron neural networks: A comparison study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vaziri, Nima; Hojabri, Alireza; Erfani, Ali; Monsefi, Mehrdad; Nilforooshan, Behnam

    2007-01-01

    Critical heat flux (CHF) is an important parameter for the design of nuclear reactors. Although many experimental and theoretical researches have been performed, there is not a single correlation to predict CHF because it is influenced by many parameters. These parameters are based on fixed inlet, local and fixed outlet conditions. Artificial neural networks (ANNs) have been applied to a wide variety of different areas such as prediction, approximation, modeling and classification. In this study, two types of neural networks, radial basis function (RBF) and multilayer perceptron (MLP), are trained with the experimental CHF data and their performances are compared. RBF predicts CHF with root mean square (RMS) errors of 0.24%, 7.9%, 0.16% and MLP predicts CHF with RMS errors of 1.29%, 8.31% and 2.71%, in fixed inlet conditions, local conditions and fixed outlet conditions, respectively. The results show that neural networks with RBF structure have superior performance in CHF data prediction over MLP neural networks. The parametric trends of CHF obtained by the trained ANNs are also evaluated and results reported

  14. Optimization the Initial Weights of Artificial Neural Networks via Genetic Algorithm Applied to Hip Bone Fracture Prediction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yu-Tzu Chang

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper aims to find the optimal set of initial weights to enhance the accuracy of artificial neural networks (ANNs by using genetic algorithms (GA. The sample in this study included 228 patients with first low-trauma hip fracture and 215 patients without hip fracture, both of them were interviewed with 78 questions. We used logistic regression to select 5 important factors (i.e., bone mineral density, experience of fracture, average hand grip strength, intake of coffee, and peak expiratory flow rate for building artificial neural networks to predict the probabilities of hip fractures. Three-layer (one hidden layer ANNs models with back-propagation training algorithms were adopted. The purpose in this paper is to find the optimal initial weights of neural networks via genetic algorithm to improve the predictability. Area under the ROC curve (AUC was used to assess the performance of neural networks. The study results showed the genetic algorithm obtained an AUC of 0.858±0.00493 on modeling data and 0.802 ± 0.03318 on testing data. They were slightly better than the results of our previous study (0.868±0.00387 and 0.796±0.02559, resp.. Thus, the preliminary study for only using simple GA has been proved to be effective for improving the accuracy of artificial neural networks.

  15. Using remote sensing satellite data and artificial neural network for prediction of potato yield in Bangladesh

    Science.gov (United States)

    Akhand, Kawsar; Nizamuddin, Mohammad; Roytman, Leonid; Kogan, Felix

    2016-09-01

    Potato is one of the staple foods and cash crops in Bangladesh. It is widely cultivated in all of the districts and ranks second after rice in production. Bangladesh is the fourth largest potato producer in Asia and is among the world's top 15 potato producing countries. The weather condition for potato cultivation is favorable during the sowing, growing and harvesting period. It is a winter crop and is cultivated during the period of November to March. Bangladesh is mainly an agricultural based country with respect to agriculture's contribution to GDP, employment and consumption. Potato is a prominent crop in consideration of production, its internal demand and economic value. Bangladesh has a big economic activities related to potato cultivation and marketing, especially the economic relations among farmers, traders, stockers and cold storage owners. Potato yield prediction before harvest is an important issue for the Government and the stakeholders in managing and controlling the potato market. Advanced very high resolution radiometer (AVHRR) based satellite data product vegetation health indices VCI (vegetation condition index) and TCI (temperature condition index) are used as predictors for early prediction. Artificial neural network (ANN) is used to develop a prediction model. The simulated result from this model is encouraging and the error of prediction is less than 10%.

  16. Greek long-term energy consumption prediction using artificial neural networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ekonomou, L.

    2010-01-01

    In this paper artificial neural networks (ANN) are addressed in order the Greek long-term energy consumption to be predicted. The multilayer perceptron model (MLP) has been used for this purpose by testing several possible architectures in order to be selected the one with the best generalizing ability. Actual recorded input and output data that influence long-term energy consumption were used in the training, validation and testing process. The developed ANN model is used for the prediction of 2005-2008, 2010, 2012 and 2015 Greek energy consumption. The produced ANN results for years 2005-2008 were compared with the results produced by a linear regression method, a support vector machine method and with real energy consumption records showing a great accuracy. The proposed approach can be useful in the effective implementation of energy policies, since accurate predictions of energy consumption affect the capital investment, the environmental quality, the revenue analysis, the market research management, while conserve at the same time the supply security. Furthermore it constitutes an accurate tool for the Greek long-term energy consumption prediction problem, which up today has not been faced effectively.

  17. Performance Comparison Between Support Vector Regression and Artificial Neural Network for Prediction of Oil Palm Production

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mustakim Mustakim

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available The largest region that produces oil palm in Indonesia has an important role in improving the welfare of society and economy. Oil palm has increased significantly in Riau Province in every period, to determine the production development for the next few years with the functions and benefits of oil palm carried prediction production results that were seen from time series data last 8 years (2005-2013. In its prediction implementation, it was done by comparing the performance of Support Vector Regression (SVR method and Artificial Neural Network (ANN. From the experiment, SVR produced the best model compared with ANN. It is indicated by the correlation coefficient of 95% and 6% for MSE in the kernel Radial Basis Function (RBF, whereas ANN produced only 74% for R2 and 9% for MSE on the 8th experiment with hiden neuron 20 and learning rate 0,1. SVR model generates predictions for next 3 years which increased between 3% - 6% from actual data and RBF model predictions.

  18. Prediction of water formation temperature in natural gas dehydrators using radial basis function (RBF neural networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tatar Afshin

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Raw natural gases usually contain water. It is very important to remove the water from these gases through dehydration processes due to economic reasons and safety considerations. One of the most important methods for water removal from these gases is using dehydration units which use Triethylene glycol (TEG. The TEG concentration at which all water is removed and dew point characteristics of mixture are two important parameters, which should be taken into account in TEG dehydration system. Hence, developing a reliable and accurate model to predict the performance of such a system seems to be very important in gas engineering operations. This study highlights the use of intelligent modeling techniques such as Multilayer perceptron (MLP and Radial Basis Function Neural Network (RBF-ANN to predict the equilibrium water dew point in a stream of natural gas based on the TEG concentration of stream and contractor temperature. Literature data set used in this study covers temperatures from 10 °C to 80 °C and TEG concentrations from 90.000% to 99.999%. Results showed that both models are accurate in prediction of experimental data and the MLP model gives more accurate predictions compared to RBF model.

  19. Chaotic diagonal recurrent neural network

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wang Xing-Yuan; Zhang Yi

    2012-01-01

    We propose a novel neural network based on a diagonal recurrent neural network and chaos, and its structure and learning algorithm are designed. The multilayer feedforward neural network, diagonal recurrent neural network, and chaotic diagonal recurrent neural network are used to approach the cubic symmetry map. The simulation results show that the approximation capability of the chaotic diagonal recurrent neural network is better than the other two neural networks. (interdisciplinary physics and related areas of science and technology)

  20. Marginally Stable Triangular Recurrent Neural Network Architecture for Time Series Prediction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sivakumar, Seshadri; Sivakumar, Shyamala

    2017-09-25

    This paper introduces a discrete-time recurrent neural network architecture using triangular feedback weight matrices that allows a simplified approach to ensuring network and training stability. The triangular structure of the weight matrices is exploited to readily ensure that the eigenvalues of the feedback weight matrix represented by the block diagonal elements lie on the unit circle in the complex z-plane by updating these weights based on the differential of the angular error variable. Such placement of the eigenvalues together with the extended close interaction between state variables facilitated by the nondiagonal triangular elements, enhances the learning ability of the proposed architecture. Simulation results show that the proposed architecture is highly effective in time-series prediction tasks associated with nonlinear and chaotic dynamic systems with underlying oscillatory modes. This modular architecture with dual upper and lower triangular feedback weight matrices mimics fully recurrent network architectures, while maintaining learning stability with a simplified training process. While training, the block-diagonal weights (hence the eigenvalues) of the dual triangular matrices are constrained to the same values during weight updates aimed at minimizing the possibility of overfitting. The dual triangular architecture also exploits the benefit of parsing the input and selectively applying the parsed inputs to the two subnetworks to facilitate enhanced learning performance.

  1. Neural Networks in Control Applications

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sørensen, O.

    The intention of this report is to make a systematic examination of the possibilities of applying neural networks in those technical areas, which are familiar to a control engineer. In other words, the potential of neural networks in control applications is given higher priority than a detailed...... study of the networks themselves. With this end in view the following restrictions have been made: - Amongst numerous neural network structures, only the Multi Layer Perceptron (a feed-forward network) is applied. - Amongst numerous training algorithms, only four algorithms are examined, all...... in a recursive form (sample updating). The simplest is the Back Probagation Error Algorithm, and the most complex is the recursive Prediction Error Method using a Gauss-Newton search direction. - Over-fitting is often considered to be a serious problem when training neural networks. This problem is specifically...

  2. Predicting heat stress index in Sasso hens using automatic linear modeling and artificial neural network

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yakubu, A.; Oluremi, O. I. A.; Ekpo, E. I.

    2018-03-01

    There is an increasing use of robust analytical algorithms in the prediction of heat stress. The present investigation therefore, was carried out to forecast heat stress index (HSI) in Sasso laying hens. One hundred and sixty seven records on the thermo-physiological parameters of the birds were utilized. They were reared on deep litter and battery cage systems. Data were collected when the birds were 42- and 52-week of age. The independent variables fitted were housing system, age of birds, rectal temperature (RT), pulse rate (PR), and respiratory rate (RR). The response variable was HSI. Data were analyzed using automatic linear modeling (ALM) and artificial neural network (ANN) procedures. The ALM model building method involved Forward Stepwise using the F Statistic criterion. As regards ANN, multilayer perceptron (MLP) with back-propagation network was used. The ANN network was trained with 90% of the data set while 10% were dedicated to testing for model validation. RR and PR were the two parameters of utmost importance in the prediction of HSI. However, the fractional importance of RR was higher than that of PR in both ALM (0.947 versus 0.053) and ANN (0.677 versus 0.274) models. The two models also predicted HSI effectively with high degree of accuracy [r = 0.980, R 2 = 0.961, adjusted R 2 = 0.961, and RMSE = 0.05168 (ALM); r = 0.983, R 2 = 0.966; adjusted R 2 = 0.966, and RMSE = 0.04806 (ANN)]. The present information may be exploited in the development of a heat stress chart based largely on RR. This may aid detection of thermal discomfort in a poultry house under tropical and subtropical conditions.

  3. Early Yield Prediction Using Image Analysis of Apple Fruit and Tree Canopy Features with Neural Networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hong Cheng

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available (1 Background: Since early yield prediction is relevant for resource requirements of harvesting and marketing in the whole fruit industry, this paper presents a new approach of using image analysis and tree canopy features to predict early yield with artificial neural networks (ANN; (2 Methods: Two back propagation neural network (BPNN models were developed for the early period after natural fruit drop in June and the ripening period, respectively. Within the same periods, images of apple cv. “Gala” trees were captured from an orchard near Bonn, Germany. Two sample sets were developed to train and test models; each set included 150 samples from the 2009 and 2010 growing season. For each sample (each canopy image, pixels were segmented into fruit, foliage, and background using image segmentation. The four features extracted from the data set for the canopy were: total cross-sectional area of fruits, fruit number, total cross-section area of small fruits, and cross-sectional area of foliage, and were used as inputs. With the actual weighted yield per tree as a target, BPNN was employed to learn their mutual relationship as a prerequisite to develop the prediction; (3 Results: For the developed BPNN model of the early period after June drop, correlation coefficients (R2 between the estimated and the actual weighted yield, mean forecast error (MFE, mean absolute percentage error (MAPE, and root mean square error (RMSE were 0.81, −0.05, 10.7%, 2.34 kg/tree, respectively. For the model of the ripening period, these measures were 0.83, −0.03, 8.9%, 2.3 kg/tree, respectively. In 2011, the two previously developed models were used to predict apple yield. The RMSE and R2 values between the estimated and harvested apple yield were 2.6 kg/tree and 0.62 for the early period (small, green fruit and improved near harvest (red, large fruit to 2.5 kg/tree and 0.75 for a tree with ca. 18 kg yield per tree. For further method verification, the cv.

  4. Neural network prediction of carbonate lithofacies from well logs, Big Bow and Sand Arroyo Creek fields, Southwest Kansas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Qi, L.; Carr, T.R.

    2006-01-01

    In the Hugoton Embayment of southwestern Kansas, St. Louis Limestone reservoirs have relatively low recovery efficiencies, attributed to the heterogeneous nature of the oolitic deposits. This study establishes quantitative relationships between digital well logs and core description data, and applies these relationships in a probabilistic sense to predict lithofacies in 90 uncored wells across the Big Bow and Sand Arroyo Creek fields. In 10 wells, a single hidden-layer neural network based on digital well logs and core described lithofacies of the limestone depositional texture was used to train and establish a non-linear relationship between lithofacies assignments from detailed core descriptions and selected log curves. Neural network models were optimized by selecting six predictor variables and automated cross-validation with neural network parameters and then used to predict lithofacies on the whole data set of the 2023 half-foot intervals from the 10 cored wells with the selected network size of 35 and a damping parameter of 0.01. Predicted lithofacies results compared to actual lithofacies displays absolute accuracies of 70.37-90.82%. Incorporating adjoining lithofacies, within-one lithofacies improves accuracy slightly (93.72%). Digital logs from uncored wells were batch processed to predict lithofacies and probabilities related to each lithofacies at half-foot resolution corresponding to log units. The results were used to construct interpolated cross-sections and useful depositional patterns of St. Louis lithofacies were illustrated, e.g., the concentration of oolitic deposits (including lithofacies 5 and 6) along local highs and the relative dominance of quartz-rich carbonate grainstone (lithofacies 1) in the zones A and B of the St. Louis Limestone. Neural network techniques are applicable to other complex reservoirs, in which facies geometry and distribution are the key factors controlling heterogeneity and distribution of rock properties. Future work

  5. Artificial neural network approach to predicting engine-out emissions and performance parameters of a turbo charged diesel engine

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Özener Orkun

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available This study details the artificial neural network (ANN modelling of a diesel engine to predict the torque, power, brake-specific fuel consumption and pollutant emissions, including carbon dioxide, carbon monoxide, nitrogen oxides, total hydrocarbons and filter smoke number. To collect data for training and testing the neural network, experiments were performed on a four cylinder, four stroke compression ignition engine. A total of 108 test points were run on a dynamometer. For the first part of this work, a parameter packet was used as the inputs for the neural network, and satisfactory regression was found with the outputs (over ~95%, excluding total hydrocarbons. The second stage of this work addressed developing new networks with additional inputs for predicting the total hydrocarbons, and the regression was raised from 75 % to 90 %. This study shows that the ANN approach can be used for accurately predicting characteristic values of an internal combustion engine and that the neural network performance can be increased using additional related input data.

  6. Predictions on the Development Dimensions of Provincial Tourism Discipline Based on the Artificial Neural Network BP Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Yang; Hu, Jun; Lv, Yingchun; Zhang, Mu

    2013-01-01

    As the tourism industry has gradually become the strategic mainstay industry of the national economy, the scope of the tourism discipline has developed rigorously. This paper makes a predictive study on the development of the scope of Guangdong provincial tourism discipline based on the artificial neural network BP model in order to find out how…

  7. SPARTA+: a modest improvement in empirical NMR chemical shift prediction by means of an artificial neural network

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Shen Yang; Bax, Ad, E-mail: bax@nih.go [National Institutes of Health, Laboratory of Chemical Physics, National Institute of Diabetes and Digestive and Kidney Diseases (United States)

    2010-09-15

    NMR chemical shifts provide important local structural information for proteins and are key in recently described protein structure generation protocols. We describe a new chemical shift prediction program, SPARTA+, which is based on artificial neural networking. The neural network is trained on a large carefully pruned database, containing 580 proteins for which high-resolution X-ray structures and nearly complete backbone and {sup 13}C{sup {beta}} chemical shifts are available. The neural network is trained to establish quantitative relations between chemical shifts and protein structures, including backbone and side-chain conformation, H-bonding, electric fields and ring-current effects. The trained neural network yields rapid chemical shift prediction for backbone and {sup 13}C{sup {beta}} atoms, with standard deviations of 2.45, 1.09, 0.94, 1.14, 0.25 and 0.49 ppm for {delta}{sup 15}N, {delta}{sup 13}C', {delta}{sup 13}C{sup {alpha}}, {delta}{sup 13}C{sup {beta}}, {delta}{sup 1}H{sup {alpha}} and {delta}{sup 1}H{sup N}, respectively, between the SPARTA+ predicted and experimental shifts for a set of eleven validation proteins. These results represent a modest but consistent improvement (2-10%) over the best programs available to date, and appear to be approaching the limit at which empirical approaches can predict chemical shifts.

  8. SPARTA+: a modest improvement in empirical NMR chemical shift prediction by means of an artificial neural network

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shen Yang; Bax, Ad

    2010-01-01

    NMR chemical shifts provide important local structural information for proteins and are key in recently described protein structure generation protocols. We describe a new chemical shift prediction program, SPARTA+, which is based on artificial neural networking. The neural network is trained on a large carefully pruned database, containing 580 proteins for which high-resolution X-ray structures and nearly complete backbone and 13 C β chemical shifts are available. The neural network is trained to establish quantitative relations between chemical shifts and protein structures, including backbone and side-chain conformation, H-bonding, electric fields and ring-current effects. The trained neural network yields rapid chemical shift prediction for backbone and 13 C β atoms, with standard deviations of 2.45, 1.09, 0.94, 1.14, 0.25 and 0.49 ppm for δ 15 N, δ 13 C', δ 13 C α , δ 13 C β , δ 1 H α and δ 1 H N , respectively, between the SPARTA+ predicted and experimental shifts for a set of eleven validation proteins. These results represent a modest but consistent improvement (2-10%) over the best programs available to date, and appear to be approaching the limit at which empirical approaches can predict chemical shifts.

  9. A neural network method for identification of prokaryotic and eukaryotic signal peptides and prediction of their cleavage sites

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Henrik; Engelbrecht, Jacob; Brunak, Søren

    1997-01-01

    We have developed a new method for the identication of signal peptides and their cleavage sites based on neural networks trained on separate sets of prokaryotic and eukaryotic sequences. The method performs signicantly better than previous prediction schemes, and can easily be applied to genome...

  10. A regional neural network model for predicting mean daily river water temperature

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wagner, Tyler; DeWeber, Jefferson Tyrell

    2014-01-01

    Water temperature is a fundamental property of river habitat and often a key aspect of river resource management, but measurements to characterize thermal regimes are not available for most streams and rivers. As such, we developed an artificial neural network (ANN) ensemble model to predict mean daily water temperature in 197,402 individual stream reaches during the warm season (May–October) throughout the native range of brook trout Salvelinus fontinalis in the eastern U.S. We compared four models with different groups of predictors to determine how well water temperature could be predicted by climatic, landform, and land cover attributes, and used the median prediction from an ensemble of 100 ANNs as our final prediction for each model. The final model included air temperature, landform attributes and forested land cover and predicted mean daily water temperatures with moderate accuracy as determined by root mean squared error (RMSE) at 886 training sites with data from 1980 to 2009 (RMSE = 1.91 °C). Based on validation at 96 sites (RMSE = 1.82) and separately for data from 2010 (RMSE = 1.93), a year with relatively warmer conditions, the model was able to generalize to new stream reaches and years. The most important predictors were mean daily air temperature, prior 7 day mean air temperature, and network catchment area according to sensitivity analyses. Forest land cover at both riparian and catchment extents had relatively weak but clear negative effects. Predicted daily water temperature averaged for the month of July matched expected spatial trends with cooler temperatures in headwaters and at higher elevations and latitudes. Our ANN ensemble is unique in predicting daily temperatures throughout a large region, while other regional efforts have predicted at relatively coarse time steps. The model may prove a useful tool for predicting water temperatures in sampled and unsampled rivers under current conditions and future projections of climate

  11. A Novel Model for Stock Price Prediction Using Hybrid Neural Network

    Science.gov (United States)

    Senapati, Manas Ranjan; Das, Sumanjit; Mishra, Sarojananda

    2018-06-01

    The foremost challenge for investors is to select stock price by analyzing financial data which is a menial task as of distort associated and massive pattern. Thereby, selecting stock poses one of the greatest difficulties for investors. Nowadays, prediction of financial market like stock market, exchange rate and share value are very challenging field of research. The prediction and scrutinization of stock price is also a potential area of research due to its vital significance in decision making by financial investors. This paper presents an intelligent and an optimal model for prophecy of stock market price using hybridization of Adaline Neural Network (ANN) and modified Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO). The connoted model hybrid of Adaline and PSO uses fluctuations of stock market as a factor and employs PSO to optimize and update weights of Adaline representation to depict open price of Bombay stock exchange. The prediction performance of the proposed model is compared with different representations like interval measurements, CMS-PSO and Bayesian-ANN. The result indicates that proposed scheme has an edge over all the juxtaposed schemes in terms of mean absolute percentage error.

  12. A Neural Network Based Intelligent Predictive Sensor for Cloudiness, Solar Radiation and Air Temperature

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ferreira, Pedro M.; Gomes, João M.; Martins, Igor A. C.; Ruano, António E.

    2012-01-01

    Accurate measurements of global solar radiation and atmospheric temperature, as well as the availability of the predictions of their evolution over time, are important for different areas of applications, such as agriculture, renewable energy and energy management, or thermal comfort in buildings. For this reason, an intelligent, light-weight and portable sensor was developed, using artificial neural network models as the time-series predictor mechanisms. These have been identified with the aid of a procedure based on the multi-objective genetic algorithm. As cloudiness is the most significant factor affecting the solar radiation reaching a particular location on the Earth surface, it has great impact on the performance of predictive solar radiation models for that location. This work also represents one step towards the improvement of such models by using ground-to-sky hemispherical colour digital images as a means to estimate cloudiness by the fraction of visible sky corresponding to clouds and to clear sky. The implementation of predictive models in the prototype has been validated and the system is able to function reliably, providing measurements and four-hour forecasts of cloudiness, solar radiation and air temperature. PMID:23202230

  13. Predicting Free Flow Speed and Crash Risk of Bicycle Traffic Flow Using Artificial Neural Network Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cheng Xu

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Free flow speed is a fundamental measure of traffic performance and has been found to affect the severity of crash risk. However, the previous studies lack analysis and modelling of impact factors on bicycles’ free flow speed. The main focus of this study is to develop multilayer back propagation artificial neural network (BPANN models for the prediction of free flow speed and crash risk on the separated bicycle path. Four different models with considering different combinations of input variables (e.g., path width, traffic condition, bicycle type, and cyclists’ characteristics were developed. 459 field data samples were collected from eleven bicycle paths in Hangzhou, China, and 70% of total samples were used for training, 15% for validation, and 15% for testing. The results show that considering the input variables of bicycle types and characteristics of cyclists will effectively improve the accuracy of the prediction models. Meanwhile, the parameters of bicycle types have more significant effect on predicting free flow speed of bicycle compared to those of cyclists’ characteristics. The findings could contribute for evaluation, planning, and management of bicycle safety.

  14. Mortality Predicted Accuracy for Hepatocellular Carcinoma Patients with Hepatic Resection Using Artificial Neural Network

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Herng-Chia Chiu

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this present study is firstly to compare significant predictors of mortality for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC patients undergoing resection between artificial neural network (ANN and logistic regression (LR models and secondly to evaluate the predictive accuracy of ANN and LR in different survival year estimation models. We constructed a prognostic model for 434 patients with 21 potential input variables by Cox regression model. Model performance was measured by numbers of significant predictors and predictive accuracy. The results indicated that ANN had double to triple numbers of significant predictors at 1-, 3-, and 5-year survival models as compared with LR models. Scores of accuracy, sensitivity, specificity, and area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC of 1-, 3-, and 5-year survival estimation models using ANN were superior to those of LR in all the training sets and most of the validation sets. The study demonstrated that ANN not only had a great number of predictors of mortality variables but also provided accurate prediction, as compared with conventional methods. It is suggested that physicians consider using data mining methods as supplemental tools for clinical decision-making and prognostic evaluation.

  15. Product unit neural network models for predicting the growth limits of Listeria monocytogenes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Valero, A; Hervás, C; García-Gimeno, R M; Zurera, G

    2007-08-01

    A new approach to predict the growth/no growth interface of Listeria monocytogenes as a function of storage temperature, pH, citric acid (CA) and ascorbic acid (AA) is presented. A linear logistic regression procedure was performed and a non-linear model was obtained by adding new variables by means of a Neural Network model based on Product Units (PUNN). The classification efficiency of the training data set and the generalization data of the new Logistic Regression PUNN model (LRPU) were compared with Linear Logistic Regression (LLR) and Polynomial Logistic Regression (PLR) models. 92% of the total cases from the LRPU model were correctly classified, an improvement on the percentage obtained using the PLR model (90%) and significantly higher than the results obtained with the LLR model, 80%. On the other hand predictions of LRPU were closer to data observed which permits to design proper formulations in minimally processed foods. This novel methodology can be applied to predictive microbiology for describing growth/no growth interface of food-borne microorganisms such as L. monocytogenes. The optimal balance is trying to find models with an acceptable interpretation capacity and with good ability to fit the data on the boundaries of variable range. The results obtained conclude that these kinds of models might well be very a valuable tool for mathematical modeling.

  16. Predicting diametral creep of the pressure tubes in CANDU reactors using fuzzy neural networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, Jae Yong; Na, Man Gyun; Park, Jong Ho

    2011-01-01

    Pressure tube (PT) creep is one of the principal aging mechanisms governing the heat transfer and hydraulic degradation of the heat transport system (HTS) in Canada deuterium uranium reactors. PT diametral creep affects the thermal hydraulic characteristics of coolant channels and the critical heat flux (CHF). CHF is a key parameter in determining the critical channel power, which is used in the trip setpoint calculations of regional overpower protection systems. This paper aims to predict PT diametral creep using the measured signals of the HTS by applying fuzzy neural networks (FNNs) according to operating conditions. The FNN model was optimized in terms of its fuzzy rules and parameters by a genetic algorithm combined with the least-squares method. Informative data that demonstrate the system's characteristic behavior were selected to train the FNN model using the subtractive clustering method. The proposed FNN model for predicting PT diametral creep was verified using the operating data of the Wolsong Unit 1 nuclear power plant in Korea. It was known that the FNN could predict the PT diametral creep accurately. Statistical and analytical uncertainty analysis methods were applied to the models and their uncertainties were evaluated using 60 sampled training and optimization data sets, as well as two fixed test data sets. (author)

  17. Prediction of the Fundamental Period of Infilled RC Frame Structures Using Artificial Neural Networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Panagiotis G. Asteris

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The fundamental period is one of the most critical parameters for the seismic design of structures. There are several literature approaches for its estimation which often conflict with each other, making their use questionable. Furthermore, the majority of these approaches do not take into account the presence of infill walls into the structure despite the fact that infill walls increase the stiffness and mass of structure leading to significant changes in the fundamental period. In the present paper, artificial neural networks (ANNs are used to predict the fundamental period of infilled reinforced concrete (RC structures. For the training and the validation of the ANN, a large data set is used based on a detailed investigation of the parameters that affect the fundamental period of RC structures. The comparison of the predicted values with analytical ones indicates the potential of using ANNs for the prediction of the fundamental period of infilled RC frame structures taking into account the crucial parameters that influence its value.

  18. Length of Hospital Stay Prediction at the Admission Stage for Cardiology Patients Using Artificial Neural Network

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pei-Fang (Jennifer Tsai

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available For hospitals’ admission management, the ability to predict length of stay (LOS as early as in the preadmission stage might be helpful to monitor the quality of inpatient care. This study is to develop artificial neural network (ANN models to predict LOS for inpatients with one of the three primary diagnoses: coronary atherosclerosis (CAS, heart failure (HF, and acute myocardial infarction (AMI in a cardiovascular unit in a Christian hospital in Taipei, Taiwan. A total of 2,377 cardiology patients discharged between October 1, 2010, and December 31, 2011, were analyzed. Using ANN or linear regression model was able to predict correctly for 88.07% to 89.95% CAS patients at the predischarge stage and for 88.31% to 91.53% at the preadmission stage. For AMI or HF patients, the accuracy ranged from 64.12% to 66.78% at the predischarge stage and 63.69% to 67.47% at the preadmission stage when a tolerance of 2 days was allowed.

  19. Mortality Predicted Accuracy for Hepatocellular Carcinoma Patients with Hepatic Resection Using Artificial Neural Network

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chiu, Herng-Chia; Ho, Te-Wei; Lee, King-Teh; Chen, Hong-Yaw; Ho, Wen-Hsien

    2013-01-01

    The aim of this present study is firstly to compare significant predictors of mortality for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) patients undergoing resection between artificial neural network (ANN) and logistic regression (LR) models and secondly to evaluate the predictive accuracy of ANN and LR in different survival year estimation models. We constructed a prognostic model for 434 patients with 21 potential input variables by Cox regression model. Model performance was measured by numbers of significant predictors and predictive accuracy. The results indicated that ANN had double to triple numbers of significant predictors at 1-, 3-, and 5-year survival models as compared with LR models. Scores of accuracy, sensitivity, specificity, and area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) of 1-, 3-, and 5-year survival estimation models using ANN were superior to those of LR in all the training sets and most of the validation sets. The study demonstrated that ANN not only had a great number of predictors of mortality variables but also provided accurate prediction, as compared with conventional methods. It is suggested that physicians consider using data mining methods as supplemental tools for clinical decision-making and prognostic evaluation. PMID:23737707

  20. Predicting PM10 concentration in Seoul metropolitan subway stations using artificial neural network (ANN).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Park, Sechan; Kim, Minjeong; Kim, Minhae; Namgung, Hyeong-Gyu; Kim, Ki-Tae; Cho, Kyung Hwa; Kwon, Soon-Bark

    2018-01-05

    The indoor air quality of subway systems can significantly affect the health of passengers since these systems are widely used for short-distance transit in metropolitan urban areas in many countries. The particles generated by abrasion during subway operations and the vehicle-emitted pollutants flowing in from the street in particular affect the air quality in underground subway stations. Thus the continuous monitoring of particulate matter (PM) in underground station is important to evaluate the exposure level of PM to passengers. However, it is difficult to obtain indoor PM data because the measurement systems are expensive and difficult to install and operate for significant periods of time in spaces crowded with people. In this study, we predicted the indoor PM concentration using the information of outdoor PM, the number of subway trains running, and information on ventilation operation by the artificial neural network (ANN) model. As well, we investigated the relationship between ANN's performance and the depth of underground subway station. ANN model showed a high correlation between the predicted and actual measured values and it was able to predict 67∼80% of PM at 6 subway station. In addition, we found that platform shape and depth influenced the model performance. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  1. Cost-Sensitive Radial Basis Function Neural Network Classifier for Software Defect Prediction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kumudha, P; Venkatesan, R

    Effective prediction of software modules, those that are prone to defects, will enable software developers to achieve efficient allocation of resources and to concentrate on quality assurance activities. The process of software development life cycle basically includes design, analysis, implementation, testing, and release phases. Generally, software testing is a critical task in the software development process wherein it is to save time and budget by detecting defects at the earliest and deliver a product without defects to the customers. This testing phase should be carefully operated in an effective manner to release a defect-free (bug-free) software product to the customers. In order to improve the software testing process, fault prediction methods identify the software parts that are more noted to be defect-prone. This paper proposes a prediction approach based on conventional radial basis function neural network (RBFNN) and the novel adaptive dimensional biogeography based optimization (ADBBO) model. The developed ADBBO based RBFNN model is tested with five publicly available datasets from the NASA data program repository. The computed results prove the effectiveness of the proposed ADBBO-RBFNN classifier approach with respect to the considered metrics in comparison with that of the early predictors available in the literature for the same datasets.

  2. Neural Network Ensemble Based Approach for 2D-Interval Prediction of Solar Photovoltaic Power

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mashud Rana

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available Solar energy generated from PhotoVoltaic (PV systems is one of the most promising types of renewable energy. However, it is highly variable as it depends on the solar irradiance and other meteorological factors. This variability creates difficulties for the large-scale integration of PV power in the electricity grid and requires accurate forecasting of the electricity generated by PV systems. In this paper we consider 2D-interval forecasts, where the goal is to predict summary statistics for the distribution of the PV power values in a future time interval. 2D-interval forecasts have been recently introduced, and they are more suitable than point forecasts for applications where the predicted variable has a high variability. We propose a method called NNE2D that combines variable selection based on mutual information and an ensemble of neural networks, to compute 2D-interval forecasts, where the two interval boundaries are expressed in terms of percentiles. NNE2D was evaluated for univariate prediction of Australian solar PV power data for two years. The results show that it is a promising method, outperforming persistence baselines and other methods used for comparison in terms of accuracy and coverage probability.

  3. Prediction of Polymer Flooding Performance with an Artificial Neural Network: A Two-Polymer-Slug Case

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jestril Ebaga-Ololo

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available Many previous contributions to methods of forecasting the performance of polymer flooding using artificial neural networks (ANNs have been made by numerous researchers previously. In most of those forecasting cases, only a single polymer slug was employed to meet the objective of the study. The intent of this manuscript is to propose an efficient recovery factor prediction tool at different injection stages of two polymer slugs during polymer flooding using an ANN. In this regard, a back-propagation algorithm was coupled with six input parameters to predict three output parameters via a hidden layer composed of 10 neurons. Evaluation of the ANN model performance was made with multiple linear regression. With an acceptable correlation coefficient, the proposed ANN tool was able to predict the recovery factor with errors of <1%. In addition, to understand the influence of each parameter on the output parameters, a sensitivity analysis was applied to the input parameters. The results showed less impact from the second polymer concentration, owing to changes in permeability after the injection of the first polymer slug.

  4. Predicting octane number using nuclear magnetic resonance spectroscopy and artificial neural networks

    KAUST Repository

    Abdul Jameel, Abdul Gani

    2018-04-17

    Machine learning algorithms are attracting significant interest for predicting complex chemical phenomenon. In this work, a model to predict research octane number (RON) and motor octane number (MON) of pure hydrocarbons, hydrocarbon-ethanol blends and gasoline-ethanol blends has been developed using artificial neural networks (ANN) and molecular parameters from 1H nuclear Magnetic Resonance (NMR) spectroscopy. RON and MON of 128 pure hydrocarbons, 123 hydrocarbon-ethanol blends of known composition and 30 FACE (fuels for advanced combustion engines) gasoline-ethanol blends were utilized as a dataset to develop the ANN model. The effect of weight % of seven functional groups including paraffinic CH3 groups, paraffinic CH2 groups, paraffinic CH groups, olefinic -CH=CH2 groups, naphthenic CH-CH2 groups, aromatic C-CH groups and ethanolic OH groups on RON and MON was studied. The effect of branching (i.e., methyl substitution), denoted by a parameter termed as branching index (BI), and molecular weight (MW) were included as inputs along with the seven functional groups to predict RON and MON. The topology of the developed ANN models for RON (9-540-314-1) and MON (9-340-603-1) have two hidden layers and a large number of nodes, and was validated against experimentally measured RON and MON of pure hydrocarbons, hydrocarbon-ethanol and gasoline-ethanol blends; a good correlation (R2=0.99) between the predicted and the experimental data was obtained. The average error of prediction for both RON and MON was found to be 1.2 which is close to the range of experimental uncertainty. This shows that the functional groups in a molecule or fuel can be used to predict its ON, and the complex relationship between them can be captured by tools like ANN.

  5. Predicting octane number using nuclear magnetic resonance spectroscopy and artificial neural networks

    KAUST Repository

    Abdul Jameel, Abdul Gani; Oudenhoven, Vincent Van; Emwas, Abdul-Hamid M.; Sarathy, Mani

    2018-01-01

    Machine learning algorithms are attracting significant interest for predicting complex chemical phenomenon. In this work, a model to predict research octane number (RON) and motor octane number (MON) of pure hydrocarbons, hydrocarbon-ethanol blends and gasoline-ethanol blends has been developed using artificial neural networks (ANN) and molecular parameters from 1H nuclear Magnetic Resonance (NMR) spectroscopy. RON and MON of 128 pure hydrocarbons, 123 hydrocarbon-ethanol blends of known composition and 30 FACE (fuels for advanced combustion engines) gasoline-ethanol blends were utilized as a dataset to develop the ANN model. The effect of weight % of seven functional groups including paraffinic CH3 groups, paraffinic CH2 groups, paraffinic CH groups, olefinic -CH=CH2 groups, naphthenic CH-CH2 groups, aromatic C-CH groups and ethanolic OH groups on RON and MON was studied. The effect of branching (i.e., methyl substitution), denoted by a parameter termed as branching index (BI), and molecular weight (MW) were included as inputs along with the seven functional groups to predict RON and MON. The topology of the developed ANN models for RON (9-540-314-1) and MON (9-340-603-1) have two hidden layers and a large number of nodes, and was validated against experimentally measured RON and MON of pure hydrocarbons, hydrocarbon-ethanol and gasoline-ethanol blends; a good correlation (R2=0.99) between the predicted and the experimental data was obtained. The average error of prediction for both RON and MON was found to be 1.2 which is close to the range of experimental uncertainty. This shows that the functional groups in a molecule or fuel can be used to predict its ON, and the complex relationship between them can be captured by tools like ANN.

  6. A neural network model to predict lung radiation-induced pneumonitis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chen Shifeng; Zhou Sumin; Zhang Junan; Yin Fangfang; Marks, Lawrence B.; Das, Shiva K.

    2007-01-01

    A feed-forward neural network was investigated to predict the occurrence of lung radiation-induced Grade 2+ pneumonitis. The database consisted of 235 patients with lung cancer treated using radiotherapy, of whom 34 were diagnosed with Grade 2+ pneumonitis at follow-up. The network was constructed using an algorithm that alternately grew and pruned it, starting from the smallest possible network, until a satisfactory solution was found. The weights and biases of the network were computed using the error back-propagation approach. Momentum and variable leaning techniques were used to speed convergence. Using the growing/pruning approach, the network selected features from 66 dose and 27 non-dose variables. During network training, the 235 patients were randomly split into ten groups of approximately equal size. Eight groups were used to train the network, one group was used for early stopping training to prevent overfitting, and the remaining group was used as a test to measure the generalization capability of the network (cross-validation). Using this methodology, each of the ten groups was considered, in turn, as the test group (ten-fold cross-validation). For the optimized network constructed with input features selected from dose and non-dose variables, the area under the receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curve for cross-validated testing was 0.76 (sensitivity: 0.68, specificity: 0.69). For the optimized network constructed with input features selected only from dose variables, the area under the ROC curve for cross-validation was 0.67 (sensitivity: 0.53, specificity: 0.69). The difference between these two areas was statistically significant (p=0.020), indicating that the addition of non-dose features can significantly improve the generalization capability of the network. A network for prospective testing was constructed with input features selected from dose and non-dose variables (all data were used for training). The optimized network architecture

  7. Streamflow predictions in Alpine Catchments by using artificial neural networks. Application in the Alto Genil Basin (South Spain)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jimeno-Saez, Patricia; Pegalajar-Cuellar, Manuel; Pulido-Velazquez, David

    2017-04-01

    This study explores techniques of modeling water inflow series, focusing on techniques of short-term steamflow prediction. An appropriate estimation of streamflow in advance is necessary to anticipate measures to mitigate the impacts and risks related to drought conditions. This study analyzes the prediction of future streamflow of nineteen subbasins in the Alto-Genil basin in Granada (Southeast of Spain). Some of these basin streamflow have an important component of snowmelt due to part of the system is located in Sierra Nevada Mountain Range, the highest mountain of continental Spain. Streamflow prediction models have been calibrated using time series of historical natural streamflows. The available streamflow measurements have been downloaded from several public data sources. These original data have been preprocessed to turn them to the original natural regime, removing the anthropic effects. The missing values in the adopted horizon period to calibrate the prediction models have been estimated by using a Temez hydrological balance model, approaching the snowmelt processes with a hybrid degree day method. In the experimentation, ARIMA models are used as baseline method, and recurrent neural networks ELMAN and nonlinear autoregressive neural network (NAR) to test if the prediction accuracy can be improved. After performing the multiple experiments with these models, non-parametric statistical tests are applied to select the best of these techniques. In the experiments carried out with ARIMA, it is concluded that ARIMA models are not adequate in this case study due to the existence of a nonlinear component that cannot be modeled. Secondly, ELMAN and NAR neural networks with multi-start training is performed with each network structure to deal with the local optimum problem, since in neural network training there is a very strong dependence on the initial weights of the network. The obtained results suggest that both neural networks are efficient for the short

  8. PREDICTIVE CONTROL OF A BATCH POLYMERIZATION SYSTEM USING A FEEDFORWARD NEURAL NETWORK WITH ONLINE ADAPTATION BY GENETIC ALGORITHM

    OpenAIRE

    Cancelier, A.; Claumann, C. A.; Bolzan, A.; Machado, R. A. F.

    2016-01-01

    Abstract This study used a predictive controller based on an empirical nonlinear model comprising a three-layer feedforward neural network for temperature control of the suspension polymerization process. In addition to the offline training technique, an algorithm was also analyzed for online adaptation of its parameters. For the offline training, the network was statically trained and the genetic algorithm technique was used in combination with the least squares method. For online training, ...

  9. Applications of neural network prediction of conformational states for small peptides from spectra and of fold classes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bohr, Henrik; Røgen, Peter; Jalkanen, Karl J.

    2001-01-01

    but already at this stage they could be compared with reasonable agreements to experiments. The neural networks are shown to be good in distinguishing the different conformers of the small alanine peptides. especially when in the gas phase. Also the task of predicting protein fold-classes, defined from line...... to construct vibrational spectra for each of the conformational states with low energy. From the spectra, neural networks could be trained to distinguish between the various states and thus be able to generate a larger set of relevant structures and their relation to secondary structures of the peptides....... The calculations were done both with solvent atoms (up to ten water molecules) and without, and hence the neural networks could be used to monitor the influence of the solvent on hydrogen bond formation. The calculations at this stage only involved very short peptide fragments of a few alanine amino acids...

  10. Prediction of degree of crystallinity for the LTA zeolite using artificial neural networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ghanbari Shahram

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available Zeolites are microporous aluminosilicate/silicate crystalline materials with three-dimensional tetrahedral configuration. In this study, the degree of crystallinity of the synthesized Linde Type A (LTA zeolite, which is the main indicator of its quality/purity is tried to be modeled. Effect of crystallization time, temperature, molar ratio of the synthesis gel on the relative crystallinity of the LTA zeolites is investigated using artificial neural networks. Our experimental observations and some data collected from literature have been used for adjusting the parameters of the proposed model and evaluating its performance. It has been observed that two-layer perceptron network with eight hidden neurons is the most accurate approach for the considered task. The designed model predicts the experimental datasets with a mean square error of 3.99 × 10-6, absolute average relative deviation of 8.69 %, and regression coefficient of 0.9596. The proposed model can decrease the required time and number of experiments to evaluate the extent of crystallinity of the LTA zeolites.

  11. Artificial Neural Network System to Predict the Postoperative Outcome of Percutaneous Nephrolithotomy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aminsharifi, Alireza; Irani, Dariush; Pooyesh, Shima; Parvin, Hamid; Dehghani, Sakineh; Yousofi, Khalilolah; Fazel, Ebrahim; Zibaie, Fatemeh

    2017-05-01

    To construct, train, and apply an artificial neural network (ANN) system for prediction of different outcome variables of percutaneous nephrolithotomy (PCNL). We calculated predictive accuracy, sensitivity, and precision for each outcome variable. During the study period, all adult patients who underwent PCNL at our institute were enrolled in the study. Preoperative and postoperative variables were recorded, and stone-free status was assessed perioperatively with computed tomography scans. MATLAB software was used to design and train the network in a feed forward back-propagation error adjustment scheme. Preoperative and postoperative data from 200 patients (training set) were used to analyze the effect and relative relevance of preoperative values on postoperative parameters. The validated adequately trained ANN was used to predict postoperative outcomes in the subsequent 254 adult patients (test set) whose preoperative values were serially fed into the system. To evaluate system accuracy in predicting each postoperative variable, predicted values were compared with actual outcomes. Two hundred fifty-four patients (155 [61%] males) were considered the test set. Mean stone burden was 6702.86 ± 381.6 mm 3 . Overall stone-free rate was 76.4%. Fifty-four out of 254 patients (21.3%) required ancillary procedures (shockwave lithotripsy 5.9%, transureteral lithotripsy 10.6%, and repeat PCNL 4.7%). The accuracy and sensitivity of the system in predicting different postoperative variables ranged from 81.0% to 98.2%. As a complex nonlinear mathematical model, our ANN system is an interconnected data mining tool, which prospectively analyzes and "learns" the relationships between variables. The accuracy and sensitivity of the system for predicting the stone-free rate, the need for blood transfusion, and post-PCNL ancillary procedures ranged from 81.0% to 98.2%.The stone burden and the stone morphometry were among the most significant preoperative characteristics that

  12. Prediction of the Thermal Conductivity of Refrigerants by Computational Methods and Artificial Neural Network.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ghaderi, Forouzan; Ghaderi, Amir H; Ghaderi, Noushin; Najafi, Bijan

    2017-01-01

    Background: The thermal conductivity of fluids can be calculated by several computational methods. However, these methods are reliable only at the confined levels of density, and there is no specific computational method for calculating thermal conductivity in the wide ranges of density. Methods: In this paper, two methods, an Artificial Neural Network (ANN) approach and a computational method established upon the Rainwater-Friend theory, were used to predict the value of thermal conductivity in all ranges of density. The thermal conductivity of six refrigerants, R12, R14, R32, R115, R143, and R152 was predicted by these methods and the effectiveness of models was specified and compared. Results: The results show that the computational method is a usable method for predicting thermal conductivity at low levels of density. However, the efficiency of this model is considerably reduced in the mid-range of density. It means that this model cannot be used at density levels which are higher than 6. On the other hand, the ANN approach is a reliable method for thermal conductivity prediction in all ranges of density. The best accuracy of ANN is achieved when the number of units is increased in the hidden layer. Conclusion: The results of the computational method indicate that the regular dependence between thermal conductivity and density at higher densities is eliminated. It can develop a nonlinear problem. Therefore, analytical approaches are not able to predict thermal conductivity in wide ranges of density. Instead, a nonlinear approach such as, ANN is a valuable method for this purpose.

  13. Application of neural networks to prediction of phase transport characteristics in high-pressure two-phase turbulent bubbly flows

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yang, A.-S.; Kuo, T.-C.; Ling, P.-H.

    2003-01-01

    The phase transport phenomenon of the high-pressure two-phase turbulent bubbly flow involves complicated interfacial interactions of the mass, momentum, and energy transfer processes between phases, revealing that an enormous effort is required in characterizing the liquid-gas flow behavior. Nonetheless, the instantaneous information of bubbly flow properties is often desired for many industrial applications. This investigation aims to demonstrate the successful use of neural networks in the real-time determination of two-phase flow properties at elevated pressures. Three back-propagation neural networks, trained with the simulation results of a comprehensive theoretical model, are established to predict the transport characteristics (specifically the distributions of void-fraction and axial liquid-gas velocities) of upward turbulent bubbly pipe flows at pressures covering 3.5-7.0 MPa. Comparisons of the predictions with the test target vectors indicate that the averaged root-mean-squared (RMS) error for each one of three back-propagation neural networks is within 4.59%. In addition, this study appraises the effects of different network parameters, including the number of hidden nodes, the type of transfer function, the number of training pairs, the learning rate-increasing ratio, the learning rate-decreasing ratio, and the momentum value, on the training quality of neural networks.

  14. Comparative Application of Radial Basis Function and Multilayer Perceptron Neural Networks to Predict Traffic Noise Pollution in Tehran Roads

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ali Mansourkhaki

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Noise pollution is a level of environmental noise which is considered as a disturbing and annoying phenomenon for human and wildlife. It is one of the environmental problems which has not been considered as harmful as the air and water pollution. Compared with other pollutants, the attempts to control noise pollution have largely been unsuccessful due to the inadequate knowledge of its effectson humans, as well as the lack of clear standards in previous years. However, with an increase of traveling vehicles, the adverse impact of increasing noise pollution on human health is progressively emerging. Hence, investigators all around the world are seeking to findnew approaches for predicting, estimating and controlling this problem and various models have been proposed. Recently, developing learning algorithms such as neural network has led to novel solutions for this challenge. These algorithms provide intelligent performance based on the situations and input data, enabling to obtain the best result for predicting noise level. In this study, two types of neural networks – multilayer perceptron and radial basis function – were developed for predicting equivalent continuous sound level (LA eq by measuring the traffivolume, average speed and percentage of heavy vehicles in some roads in west and northwest of Tehran. Then, their prediction results were compared based on the coefficienof determination (R 2 and the Mean Squared Error (MSE. Although both networks are of high accuracy in prediction of noise level, multilayer perceptron neural network based on selected criteria had a better performance.

  15. Artificial neural network prediction of quantitative structure - retention relationships of polycyclic aromatic hydocarbons in gas chromatography

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    SNEZANA SREMAC

    2005-11-01

    Full Text Available A feed-forward artificial neural network (ANN model was used to link molecular structures (boiling points, connectivity indices and molecular weights and retention indices of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs in linear temperature-programmed gas chromatography. A randomly taken subset of PAH retention data reported by Lee et al. [Anal. Chem. 51 (1979 768], containing retention index data for 30 PAHs, was used to make the ANN model. The prediction ability of the trained ANN was tested on unseen data for 18 PAHs from the same article, as well as on the retention data for 7 PAHs experimentally obtained in this work. In addition, two different data sets with known retention indices taken from the literature were analyzed by the same ANN model. It has been shown that the relative accuracy as the degree of agreement between the measured and the predicted retention indices in all testing sets, for most of the studied PAHs, were within the experimental error margins (±3%.

  16. The Prediction of Surface Tension of Ternary Mixtures at Different Temperatures Using Artificial Neural Networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ali Khazaei

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available In this work, artificial neural network (ANN has been employed to propose a practical model for predicting the surface tension of multi-component mixtures. In order to develop a reliable model based on the ANN, a comprehensive experimental data set including 15 ternary liquid mixtures at different temperatures was employed. These systems consist of 777 data points generally containing hydrocarbon components. The ANN model has been developed as a function of temperature, critical properties, and acentric factor of the mixture according to conventional corresponding-state models. 80% of the data points were employed for training ANN and the remaining data were utilized for testing the generated model. The average absolute relative deviations (AARD% of the model for the training set, the testing set, and the total data points were obtained 1.69, 1.86, and 1.72 respectively. Comparing the results with Flory theory, Brok-Bird equation, and group contribution theory has proved the high prediction capability of the attained model.

  17. Prediction of Potential Hit Song and Musical Genre Using Artificial Neural Networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Monterola, Christopher; Abundo, Cheryl; Tugaff, Jeric; Venturina, Lorcel Ericka

    Accurately quantifying the goodness of music based on the seemingly subjective taste of the public is a multi-million industry. Recording companies can make sound decisions on which songs or artists to prioritize if accurate forecasting is achieved. We extract 56 single-valued musical features (e.g. pitch and tempo) from 380 Original Pilipino Music (OPM) songs (190 are hit songs) released from 2004 to 2006. Based on an effect size criterion which measures a variable's discriminating power, the 20 highest ranked features are fed to a classifier tasked to predict hit songs. We show that regardless of musical genre, a trained feed-forward neural network (NN) can predict potential hit songs with an average accuracy of ΦNN = 81%. The accuracy is about +20% higher than those of standard classifiers such as linear discriminant analysis (LDA, ΦLDA = 61%) and classification and regression trees (CART, ΦCART = 57%). Both LDA and CART are above the proportional chance criterion (PCC, ΦPCC = 50%) but are slightly below the suggested acceptable classifier requirement of 1.25*ΦPCC = 63%. Utilizing a similar procedure, we demonstrate that different genres (ballad, alternative rock or rock) of OPM songs can be automatically classified with near perfect accuracy using LDA or NN but only around 77% using CART.

  18. Salinity independent volume fraction prediction in water-gas-oil multiphase flows using artificial neural networks

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Salgado, C.M.; Pereira, Claudio M.N.A.; Brandao, Luis E.B., E-mail: otero@ien.gov.b, E-mail: cmnap@ien.gov.b, E-mail: brandao@ien.gov.b [Instituto de Engenharia Nuclear (DIRA/IEN/CNEN-RJ), Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil). Div. de Radiofarmacos

    2011-07-01

    This work investigates the response of a volume fraction prediction system for water-gas-oil multiphase flows considering variations on water salinity. The approach is based on gamma-ray pulse height distributions pattern recognition by means the artificial neural networks (ANNs). The detection system uses appropriate fan beam geometry, comprised of a dual-energy gamma-ray source and two NaI(Tl) detectors adequately positioned outside the pipe in order measure transmitted and scattered beams. An ideal and static theoretical model for annular flow regime have been developed using MCNP-X code, which was used to provide training, test and validation data for the ANN. More than 500 simulations have been done, in which water salinity have been ranged from 0 to 16% in order to cover a most practical situations. Validation tests have included values of volume fractions and water salinity different from those used in ANN training phase. The results presented here show that the proposed approach may be successfully applied to material volume fraction prediction on watergas- oil multiphase flows considering practical (real) levels of variations in water salinity. (author)

  19. Prediction of hot-ductility of steels during continuous casting using artificial neural networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Liu, W.J.; Emadi, D.; Essadiqi, E.

    2000-01-01

    During continuous casting, transversal cracks can be developed due to tensile stress in temperature regions where the steel exhibits a low ductility. The cracking tendency during continuous casting depends on the steel chemistry and the casting parameters such as lubrication, mold type, secondary cooling and bending/unbending temperatures. To prevent cracking one needs to predict the hot-ductility of a material under continuous-casting conditions. However, hot-ductility is one of the poorly understood material behaviors and cannot be readily modeled using conventional techniques. In the present study, we used an alternative method, namely Artificial Neural Networks (ANN), to model the ductility of a steel under continuous casting conditions. A hot-ductility database was established based on published literature. Several standard three-layer ANN models were then trained using data randomly selected from the database. The outputs of the ANN models were subsequently compared with the remaining data in the database. The results indicate that ANN is a suitable modelling technique for hot-ductility prediction. (author)

  20. Salinity independent volume fraction prediction in water-gas-oil multiphase flows using artificial neural networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Salgado, C.M.; Pereira, Claudio M.N.A.; Brandao, Luis E.B.

    2011-01-01

    This work investigates the response of a volume fraction prediction system for water-gas-oil multiphase flows considering variations on water salinity. The approach is based on gamma-ray pulse height distributions pattern recognition by means the artificial neural networks (ANNs). The detection system uses appropriate fan beam geometry, comprised of a dual-energy gamma-ray source and two NaI(Tl) detectors adequately positioned outside the pipe in order measure transmitted and scattered beams. An ideal and static theoretical model for annular flow regime have been developed using MCNP-X code, which was used to provide training, test and validation data for the ANN. More than 500 simulations have been done, in which water salinity have been ranged from 0 to 16% in order to cover a most practical situations. Validation tests have included values of volume fractions and water salinity different from those used in ANN training phase. The results presented here show that the proposed approach may be successfully applied to material volume fraction prediction on watergas- oil multiphase flows considering practical (real) levels of variations in water salinity. (author)

  1. Predicting the Fine Particle Fraction of Dry Powder Inhalers Using Artificial Neural Networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Muddle, Joanna; Kirton, Stewart B; Parisini, Irene; Muddle, Andrew; Murnane, Darragh; Ali, Jogoth; Brown, Marc; Page, Clive; Forbes, Ben

    2017-01-01

    Dry powder inhalers are increasingly popular for delivering drugs to the lungs for the treatment of respiratory diseases, but are complex products with multivariate performance determinants. Heuristic product development guided by in vitro aerosol performance testing is a costly and time-consuming process. This study investigated the feasibility of using artificial neural networks (ANNs) to predict fine particle fraction (FPF) based on formulation device variables. Thirty-one ANN architectures were evaluated for their ability to predict experimentally determined FPF for a self-consistent dataset containing salmeterol xinafoate and salbutamol sulfate dry powder inhalers (237 experimental observations). Principal component analysis was used to identify inputs that significantly affected FPF. Orthogonal arrays (OAs) were used to design ANN architectures, optimized using the Taguchi method. The primary OA ANN r 2 values ranged between 0.46 and 0.90 and the secondary OA increased the r 2  values (0.53-0.93). The optimum ANN (9-4-1 architecture, average r 2 0.92 ± 0.02) included active pharmaceutical ingredient, formulation, and device inputs identified by principal component analysis, which reflected the recognized importance and interdependency of these factors for orally inhaled product performance. The Taguchi method was effective at identifying successful architecture with the potential for development as a useful generic inhaler ANN model, although this would require much larger datasets and more variable inputs. Copyright © 2016 American Pharmacists Association®. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  2. Response surface and neural network based predictive models of cutting temperature in hard turning

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mozammel Mia

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available The present study aimed to develop the predictive models of average tool-workpiece interface temperature in hard turning of AISI 1060 steels by coated carbide insert. The Response Surface Methodology (RSM and Artificial Neural Network (ANN were employed to predict the temperature in respect of cutting speed, feed rate and material hardness. The number and orientation of the experimental trials, conducted in both dry and high pressure coolant (HPC environments, were planned using full factorial design. The temperature was measured by using the tool-work thermocouple. In RSM model, two quadratic equations of temperature were derived from experimental data. The analysis of variance (ANOVA and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE were performed to suffice the adequacy of the models. In ANN model, 80% data were used to train and 20% data were employed for testing. Like RSM, herein, the error analysis was also conducted. The accuracy of the RSM and ANN model was found to be ⩾99%. The ANN models exhibit an error of ∼5% MAE for testing data. The regression coefficient was found to be greater than 99.9% for both dry and HPC. Both these models are acceptable, although the ANN model demonstrated a higher accuracy. These models, if employed, are expected to provide a better control of cutting temperature in turning of hardened steel.

  3. NEURAL METHODS FOR THE FINANCIAL PREDICTION

    OpenAIRE

    Jerzy Balicki; Piotr Dryja; Waldemar Korłub; Piotr Przybyłek; Maciej Tyszka; Marcin Zadroga; Marcin Zakidalski

    2016-01-01

    Artificial neural networks can be used to predict share investment on the stock market, assess the reliability of credit client or predicting banking crises. Moreover, this paper discusses the principles of cooperation neural network algorithms with evolutionary method, and support vector machines. In addition, a reference is made to other methods of artificial intelligence, which are used in finance prediction.

  4. NEURAL METHODS FOR THE FINANCIAL PREDICTION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jerzy Balicki

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Artificial neural networks can be used to predict share investment on the stock market, assess the reliability of credit client or predicting banking crises. Moreover, this paper discusses the principles of cooperation neural network algorithms with evolutionary method, and support vector machines. In addition, a reference is made to other methods of artificial intelligence, which are used in finance prediction.

  5. Development of a neural network model to predict distortion during the metal forming process by line heating

    OpenAIRE

    Pinzón, César; Plazaola, Carlos; Banfield, Ilka; Fong, Amaly; Vega, Adán

    2013-01-01

    In order to achieve automation of the plate forming process by line heating, it is necessary to know in advance the deformation to be obtained under specific heating conditions. Currently, different methods exist to predict deformation, but these are limited to specific applications and most of them depend on the computational capacity so that only simple structures can be analyzed. In this paper, a neural network model that can accurately predict distortions produced during the plate forming...

  6. Prediction of municipal solid waste generation using artificial neural network approach enhanced by structural break analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adamović, Vladimir M; Antanasijević, Davor Z; Ristić, Mirjana Đ; Perić-Grujić, Aleksandra A; Pocajt, Viktor V

    2017-01-01

    This paper presents the development of a general regression neural network (GRNN) model for the prediction of annual municipal solid waste (MSW) generation at the national level for 44 countries of different size, population and economic development level. Proper modelling of MSW generation is essential for the planning of MSW management system as well as for the simulation of various environmental impact scenarios. The main objective of this work was to examine the potential influence of economy crisis (global or local) on the forecast of MSW generation obtained by the GRNN model. The existence of the so-called structural breaks that occur because of the economic crisis in the studied period (2000-2012) for each country was determined and confirmed using the Chow test and Quandt-Andrews test. Two GRNN models, one which did not take into account the influence of the economic crisis (GRNN) and another one which did (SB-GRNN), were developed. The novelty of the applied method is that it uses broadly available social, economic and demographic indicators and indicators of sustainability, together with GRNN and structural break testing for the prediction of MSW generation at the national level. The obtained results demonstrate that the SB-GRNN model provide more accurate predictions than the model which neglected structural breaks, with a mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) of 4.0 % compared to 6.7 % generated by the GRNN model. The proposed model enhanced with structural breaks can be a viable alternative for a more accurate prediction of MSW generation at the national level, especially for developing countries for which a lack of MSW data is notable.

  7. Prediction of persistent hemodynamic depression after carotid angioplasty and stenting using artificial neural network model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jeon, Jin Pyeong; Kim, Chulho; Oh, Byoung-Doo; Kim, Sun Jeong; Kim, Yu-Seop

    2018-01-01

    To assess and compare predictive factors for persistent hemodynamic depression (PHD) after carotid artery angioplasty and stenting (CAS) using artificial neural network (ANN) and multiple logistic regression (MLR) or support vector machines (SVM) models. A retrospective data set of patients (n=76) who underwent CAS from 2007 to 2014 was used as input (training cohort) to a back-propagation ANN using TensorFlow platform. PHD was defined when systolic blood pressure was less than 90mmHg or heart rate was less 50 beats/min that lasted for more than one hour. The resulting ANN was prospectively tested in 33 patients (test cohort) and compared with MLR or SVM models according to accuracy and receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curve analysis. No significant difference in baseline characteristics between the training cohort and the test cohort was observed. PHD was observed in 21 (27.6%) patients in the training cohort and 10 (30.3%) patients in the test cohort. In the training cohort, the accuracy of ANN for the prediction of PHD was 98.7% and the area under the ROC curve (AUROC) was 0.961. In the test cohort, the number of correctly classified instances was 32 (97.0%) using the ANN model. In contrast, the accuracy rate of MLR or SVM model was both 75.8%. ANN (AUROC: 0.950; 95% CI [confidence interval]: 0.813-0.996) showed superior predictive performance compared to MLR model (AUROC: 0.796; 95% CI: 0.620-0.915, p<0.001) or SVM model (AUROC: 0.885; 95% CI: 0.725-0.969, p<0.001). The ANN model seems to have more powerful prediction capabilities than MLR or SVM model for persistent hemodynamic depression after CAS. External validation with a large cohort is needed to confirm our results. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier B.V.

  8. A study on improvement of scaling factor prediction using artificial neural network

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, Sang Chul; Hwang, Ki Ha; Kang, Sang Hee; Lee, Kun Jai

    2003-01-01

    Final disposal of radioactive waste generated from Nuclear Power Plant (NPP) requires the detailed knowledge of the natures and quantities of radionuclides in waste package. Many of these radionuclides are difficult to measure and expensive to assay. Thus it is suggested to the indirect method by which the concentrations of DTM (Difficult-to Measure) nuclide is decided using the relation of concentrations (Scaling Factor) between Key (Easy-to-Measure) nuclide and DTM nuclide with measured concentrations of Key nuclide. In general, scaling factor is determined by using of log mean average (LMA) and regression. These methods are adequate to apply most corrosion product nuclides. But in case of fission product nuclides and some corrosion product nuclides, the predicted values aren't well matched with the original values. In this study, the models using artificial neural network (ANN) for C-14 and Sr-90 are compared with those using LMA and regression. The assessment of models is executed in the two parts divided by a training part and a validation part. For all of two nuclides in the training part, the predicted values using ANN are well matched with the measured values compared with those using LMA and regression. In the validation part, the accuracy of the predicted values using ANN is better than that using LMA and is similar to or better than that using regression. It is concluded that the predicted values using ANN model are better than those using conventional model in some nuclides and ANN model can be used as the complement of LMA and regression model

  9. Neural Networks: Implementations and Applications

    OpenAIRE

    Vonk, E.; Veelenturf, L.P.J.; Jain, L.C.

    1996-01-01

    Artificial neural networks, also called neural networks, have been used successfully in many fields including engineering, science and business. This paper presents the implementation of several neural network simulators and their applications in character recognition and other engineering areas

  10. Optimal artificial neural network architecture selection for performance prediction of compact heat exchanger with the EBaLM-OTR technique

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wijayasekara, Dumidu, E-mail: wija2589@vandals.uidaho.edu [Department of Computer Science, University of Idaho, 1776 Science Center Drive, Idaho Falls, ID 83402 (United States); Manic, Milos [Department of Computer Science, University of Idaho, 1776 Science Center Drive, Idaho Falls, ID 83402 (United States); Sabharwall, Piyush [Idaho National Laboratory, Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Utgikar, Vivek [Department of Chemical Engineering, University of Idaho, Idaho Falls, ID 83402 (United States)

    2011-07-15

    Highlights: > Performance prediction of PCHE using artificial neural networks. > Evaluating artificial neural network performance for PCHE modeling. > Selection of over-training resilient artificial neural networks. > Artificial neural network architecture selection for modeling problems with small data sets. - Abstract: Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) have been used in the past to predict the performance of printed circuit heat exchangers (PCHE) with satisfactory accuracy. Typically published literature has focused on optimizing ANN using a training dataset to train the network and a testing dataset to evaluate it. Although this may produce outputs that agree with experimental results, there is a risk of over-training or over-learning the network rather than generalizing it, which should be the ultimate goal. An over-trained network is able to produce good results with the training dataset but fails when new datasets with subtle changes are introduced. In this paper we present EBaLM-OTR (error back propagation and Levenberg-Marquardt algorithms for over training resilience) technique, which is based on a previously discussed method of selecting neural network architecture that uses a separate validation set to evaluate different network architectures based on mean square error (MSE), and standard deviation of MSE. The method uses k-fold cross validation. Therefore in order to select the optimal architecture for the problem, the dataset is divided into three parts which are used to train, validate and test each network architecture. Then each architecture is evaluated according to their generalization capability and capability to conform to original data. The method proved to be a comprehensive tool in identifying the weaknesses and advantages of different network architectures. The method also highlighted the fact that the architecture with the lowest training error is not always the most generalized and therefore not the optimal. Using the method the testing

  11. Optimal artificial neural network architecture selection for performance prediction of compact heat exchanger with the EBaLM-OTR technique

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wijayasekara, Dumidu; Manic, Milos; Sabharwall, Piyush; Utgikar, Vivek

    2011-01-01

    Highlights: → Performance prediction of PCHE using artificial neural networks. → Evaluating artificial neural network performance for PCHE modeling. → Selection of over-training resilient artificial neural networks. → Artificial neural network architecture selection for modeling problems with small data sets. - Abstract: Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) have been used in the past to predict the performance of printed circuit heat exchangers (PCHE) with satisfactory accuracy. Typically published literature has focused on optimizing ANN using a training dataset to train the network and a testing dataset to evaluate it. Although this may produce outputs that agree with experimental results, there is a risk of over-training or over-learning the network rather than generalizing it, which should be the ultimate goal. An over-trained network is able to produce good results with the training dataset but fails when new datasets with subtle changes are introduced. In this paper we present EBaLM-OTR (error back propagation and Levenberg-Marquardt algorithms for over training resilience) technique, which is based on a previously discussed method of selecting neural network architecture that uses a separate validation set to evaluate different network architectures based on mean square error (MSE), and standard deviation of MSE. The method uses k-fold cross validation. Therefore in order to select the optimal architecture for the problem, the dataset is divided into three parts which are used to train, validate and test each network architecture. Then each architecture is evaluated according to their generalization capability and capability to conform to original data. The method proved to be a comprehensive tool in identifying the weaknesses and advantages of different network architectures. The method also highlighted the fact that the architecture with the lowest training error is not always the most generalized and therefore not the optimal. Using the method the

  12. Spatial prediction of ground subsidence susceptibility using an artificial neural network.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Saro; Park, Inhye; Choi, Jong-Kuk

    2012-02-01

    Ground subsidence in abandoned underground coal mine areas can result in loss of life and property. We analyzed ground subsidence susceptibility (GSS) around abandoned coal mines in Jeong-am, Gangwon-do, South Korea, using artificial neural network (ANN) and geographic information system approaches. Spatial data of subsidence area, topography, and geology, as well as various ground-engineering data, were collected and used to create a raster database of relevant factors for a GSS map. Eight major factors causing ground subsidence were extracted from the existing ground subsidence area: slope, depth of coal mine, distance from pit, groundwater depth, rock-mass rating, distance from fault, geology, and land use. Areas of ground subsidence were randomly divided into a training set to analyze GSS using the ANN and a test set to validate the predicted GSS map. Weights of each factor's relative importance were determined by the back-propagation training algorithms and applied to the input factor. The GSS was then calculated using the weights, and GSS maps were created. The process was repeated ten times to check the stability of analysis model using a different training data set. The map was validated using area-under-the-curve analysis with the ground subsidence areas that had not been used to train the model. The validation showed prediction accuracies between 94.84 and 95.98%, representing overall satisfactory agreement. Among the input factors, "distance from fault" had the highest average weight (i.e., 1.5477), indicating that this factor was most important. The generated maps can be used to estimate hazards to people, property, and existing infrastructure, such as the transportation network, and as part of land-use and infrastructure planning.

  13. Deep convolutional neural networks for pan-specific peptide-MHC class I binding prediction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Han, Youngmahn; Kim, Dongsup

    2017-12-28

    Computational scanning of peptide candidates that bind to a specific major histocompatibility complex (MHC) can speed up the peptide-based vaccine development process and therefore various methods are being actively developed. Recently, machine-learning-based methods have generated successful results by training large amounts of experimental data. However, many machine learning-based methods are generally less sensitive in recognizing locally-clustered interactions, which can synergistically stabilize peptide binding. Deep convolutional neural network (DCNN) is a deep learning method inspired by visual recognition process of animal brain and it is known to be able to capture meaningful local patterns from 2D images. Once the peptide-MHC interactions can be encoded into image-like array(ILA) data, DCNN can be employed to build a predictive model for peptide-MHC binding prediction. In this study, we demonstrated that DCNN is able to not only reliably predict peptide-MHC binding, but also sensitively detect locally-clustered interactions. Nonapeptide-HLA-A and -B binding data were encoded into ILA data. A DCNN, as a pan-specific prediction model, was trained on the ILA data. The DCNN showed higher performance than other prediction tools for the latest benchmark datasets, which consist of 43 datasets for 15 HLA-A alleles and 25 datasets for 10 HLA-B alleles. In particular, the DCNN outperformed other tools for alleles belonging to the HLA-A3 supertype. The F1 scores of the DCNN were 0.86, 0.94, and 0.67 for HLA-A*31:01, HLA-A*03:01, and HLA-A*68:01 alleles, respectively, which were significantly higher than those of other tools. We found that the DCNN was able to recognize locally-clustered interactions that could synergistically stabilize peptide binding. We developed ConvMHC, a web server to provide user-friendly web interfaces for peptide-MHC class I binding predictions using the DCNN. ConvMHC web server can be accessible via http://jumong.kaist.ac.kr:8080/convmhc

  14. Comparison of logistic regression and artificial neural network in low back pain prediction: second national health survey.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parsaeian, M; Mohammad, K; Mahmoudi, M; Zeraati, H

    2012-01-01

    The purpose of this investigation was to compare empirically predictive ability of an artificial neural network with a logistic regression in prediction of low back pain. Data from the second national health survey were considered in this investigation. This data includes the information of low back pain and its associated risk factors among Iranian people aged 15 years and older. Artificial neural network and logistic regression models were developed using a set of 17294 data and they were validated in a test set of 17295 data. Hosmer and Lemeshow recommendation for model selection was used in fitting the logistic regression. A three-layer perceptron with 9 inputs, 3 hidden and 1 output neurons was employed. The efficiency of two models was compared by receiver operating characteristic analysis, root mean square and -2 Loglikelihood criteria. The area under the ROC curve (SE), root mean square and -2Loglikelihood of the logistic regression was 0.752 (0.004), 0.3832 and 14769.2, respectively. The area under the ROC curve (SE), root mean square and -2Loglikelihood of the artificial neural network was 0.754 (0.004), 0.3770 and 14757.6, respectively. Based on these three criteria, artificial neural network would give better performance than logistic regression. Although, the difference is statistically significant, it does not seem to be clinically significant.

  15. Acquisition and Neural Network Prediction of 3D Deformable Object Shape Using a Kinect and a Force-Torque Sensor.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tawbe, Bilal; Cretu, Ana-Maria

    2017-05-11

    The realistic representation of deformations is still an active area of research, especially for deformable objects whose behavior cannot be simply described in terms of elasticity parameters. This paper proposes a data-driven neural-network-based approach for capturing implicitly and predicting the deformations of an object subject to external forces. Visual data, in the form of 3D point clouds gathered by a Kinect sensor, is collected over an object while forces are exerted by means of the probing tip of a force-torque sensor. A novel approach based on neural gas fitting is proposed to describe the particularities of a deformation over the selectively simplified 3D surface of the object, without requiring knowledge of the object material. An alignment procedure, a distance-based clustering, and inspiration from stratified sampling support this process. The resulting representation is denser in the region of the deformation (an average of 96.6% perceptual similarity with the collected data in the deformed area), while still preserving the object's overall shape (86% similarity over the entire surface) and only using on average of 40% of the number of vertices in the mesh. A series of feedforward neural networks is then trained to predict the mapping between the force parameters characterizing the interaction with the object and the change in the object shape, as captured by the fitted neural gas nodes. This series of networks allows for the prediction of the deformation of an object when subject to unknown interactions.

  16. Setup of a Parameterized FE Model for the Die Roll Prediction in Fine Blanking using Artificial Neural Networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stanke, J.; Trauth, D.; Feuerhack, A.; Klocke, F.

    2017-09-01

    Die roll is a morphological feature of fine blanked sheared edges. The die roll reduces the functional part of the sheared edge. To compensate for the die roll thicker sheet metal strips and secondary machining must be used. However, in order to avoid this, the influence of various fine blanking process parameters on the die roll has been experimentally and numerically studied, but there is still a lack of knowledge on the effects of some factors and especially factor interactions on the die roll. Recent changes in the field of artificial intelligence motivate the hybrid use of the finite element method and artificial neural networks to account for these non-considered parameters. Therefore, a set of simulations using a validated finite element model of fine blanking is firstly used to train an artificial neural network. Then the artificial neural network is trained with thousands of experimental trials. Thus, the objective of this contribution is to develop an artificial neural network that reliably predicts the die roll. Therefore, in this contribution, the setup of a fully parameterized 2D FE model is presented that will be used for batch training of an artificial neural network. The FE model enables an automatic variation of the edge radii of blank punch and die plate, the counter and blank holder force, the sheet metal thickness and part diameter, V-ring height and position, cutting velocity as well as material parameters covered by the Hensel-Spittel model for 16MnCr5 (1.7131, AISI/SAE 5115). The FE model is validated using experimental trails. The results of this contribution is a FE model suitable to perform 9.623 simulations and to pass the simulated die roll width and height automatically to an artificial neural network.

  17. Predicting the topology of dynamic neural networks for the simulation of electronic circuits

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Schilders, W.H.A.

    2009-01-01

    In this paper we discuss the use of the state-space modelling MOESP algorithm to generate precise information about the number of neurons and hidden layers in dynamic neural networks developed for the behavioural modelling of electronic circuits. The Bartels–Stewart algorithm is used to transform

  18. Behavioral and Physiological Neural Network Analyses: A Common Pathway toward Pattern Recognition and Prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ninness, Chris; Lauter, Judy L.; Coffee, Michael; Clary, Logan; Kelly, Elizabeth; Rumph, Marilyn; Rumph, Robin; Kyle, Betty; Ninness, Sharon K.

    2012-01-01

    Using 3 diversified datasets, we explored the pattern-recognition ability of the Self-Organizing Map (SOM) artificial neural network as applied to diversified nonlinear data distributions in the areas of behavioral and physiological research. Experiment 1 employed a dataset obtained from the UCI Machine Learning Repository. Data for this study…

  19. Multiple Linear Regression and Artificial Neural Network to Predict Blood Glucose in Overweight Patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, J; Wang, F; Liu, Y; Xu, J; Lin, H; Jia, B; Zuo, W; Jiang, Y; Hu, L; Lin, F

    2016-01-01

    Overweight individuals are at higher risk for developing type II diabetes than the general population. We conducted this study to analyze the correlation between blood glucose and biochemical parameters, and developed a blood glucose prediction model tailored to overweight patients. A total of 346 overweight Chinese people patients ages 18-81 years were involved in this study. Their levels of fasting glucose (fs-GLU), blood lipids, and hepatic and renal functions were measured and analyzed by multiple linear regression (MLR). Based the MLR results, we developed a back propagation artificial neural network (BP-ANN) model by selecting tansig as the transfer function of the hidden layers nodes, and purelin for the output layer nodes, with training goal of 0.5×10(-5). There was significant correlation between fs-GLU with age, BMI, and blood biochemical indexes (P<0.05). The results of MLR analysis indicated that age, fasting alanine transaminase (fs-ALT), blood urea nitrogen (fs-BUN), total protein (fs-TP), uric acid (fs-BUN), and BMI are 6 independent variables related to fs-GLU. Based on these parameters, the BP-ANN model was performed well and reached high prediction accuracy when training 1 000 epoch (R=0.9987). The level of fs-GLU was predictable using the proposed BP-ANN model based on 6 related parameters (age, fs-ALT, fs-BUN, fs-TP, fs-UA and BMI) in overweight patients. © Georg Thieme Verlag KG Stuttgart · New York.

  20. Relative location prediction in CT scan images using convolutional neural networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guo, Jiajia; Du, Hongwei; Zhu, Jianyue; Yan, Ting; Qiu, Bensheng

    2018-07-01

    Relative location prediction in computed tomography (CT) scan images is a challenging problem. Many traditional machine learning methods have been applied in attempts to alleviate this problem. However, the accuracy and speed of these methods cannot meet the requirement of medical scenario. In this paper, we propose a regression model based on one-dimensional convolutional neural networks (CNN) to determine the relative location of a CT scan image both quickly and precisely. In contrast to other common CNN models that use a two-dimensional image as an input, the input of this CNN model is a feature vector extracted by a shape context algorithm with spatial correlation. Normalization via z-score is first applied as a pre-processing step. Then, in order to prevent overfitting and improve model's performance, 20% of the elements of the feature vectors are randomly set to zero. This CNN model consists primarily of three one-dimensional convolutional layers, three dropout layers and two fully-connected layers with appropriate loss functions. A public dataset is employed to validate the performance of the proposed model using a 5-fold cross validation. Experimental results demonstrate an excellent performance of the proposed model when compared with contemporary techniques, achieving a median absolute error of 1.04 cm and mean absolute error of 1.69 cm. The time taken for each relative location prediction is approximately 2 ms. Results indicate that the proposed CNN method can contribute to a quick and accurate relative location prediction in CT scan images, which can improve efficiency of the medical picture archiving and communication system in the future. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  1. Application of artificial neural networks for the prediction of traction performance parameters

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hamid Taghavifar

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available This study handles artificial neural networks (ANN modeling to predict tire contact area and