WorldWideScience

Sample records for neural network forecasting

  1. Ocean wave forecasting using recurrent neural networks

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Mandal, S.; Prabaharan, N.

    , merchant vessel routing, nearshore construction, etc. more efficiently and safely. This paper describes an artificial neural network, namely recurrent neural network with rprop update algorithm and is applied for wave forecasting. Measured ocean waves off...

  2. Neural Network Models for Time Series Forecasts

    OpenAIRE

    Tim Hill; Marcus O'Connor; William Remus

    1996-01-01

    Neural networks have been advocated as an alternative to traditional statistical forecasting methods. In the present experiment, time series forecasts produced by neural networks are compared with forecasts from six statistical time series methods generated in a major forecasting competition (Makridakis et al. [Makridakis, S., A. Anderson, R. Carbone, R. Fildes, M. Hibon, R. Lewandowski, J. Newton, E. Parzen, R. Winkler. 1982. The accuracy of extrapolation (time series) methods: Results of a ...

  3. Foreign currency rate forecasting using neural networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pandya, Abhijit S.; Kondo, Tadashi; Talati, Amit; Jayadevappa, Suryaprasad

    2000-03-01

    Neural networks are increasingly being used as a forecasting tool in many forecasting problems. This paper discusses the application of neural networks in predicting daily foreign exchange rates between the USD, GBP as well as DEM. We approach the problem from a time-series analysis framework - where future exchange rates are forecasted solely using past exchange rates. This relies on the belief that the past prices and future prices are very close related, and interdependent. We present the result of training a neural network with historical USD-GBP data. The methodology used in explained, as well as the training process. We discuss the selection of inputs to the network, and present a comparison of using the actual exchange rates and the exchange rate differences as inputs. Price and rate differences are the preferred way of training neural network in financial applications. Results of both approaches are present together for comparison. We show that the network is able to learn the trends in the exchange rate movements correctly, and present the results of the prediction over several periods of time.

  4. Forecasting Monsoon Precipitation Using Artificial Neural Networks

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2001-01-01

    This paper explores the application of Artificial Intelligent (AI) techniques for climate forecast. It pres ents a study on modelling the monsoon precipitation forecast by means of Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs). Using the historical data of the total amount of summer rainfall over the Delta Area of Yangtze River in China, three ANNs models have been developed to forecast the monsoon precipitation in the corre sponding area one year, five-year, and ten-year forward respectively. Performances of the models have been validated using a 'new' data set that has not been exposed to the models during the processes of model development and test. The experiment results are promising, indicating that the proposed ANNs models have good quality in terms of the accuracy, stability and generalisation ability.

  5. Wave forecasting in near real time basis by neural network

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Rao, S.; Mandal, S.; Prabaharan, N.

    ., forecasting of waves become an important aspect of marine environment. This paper presents application of the neural network (NN) with better update algorithms, namely rprop, quickprop and superSAB for wave forecasting. Measured waves off Marmagoa, Goa, India...

  6. Forecasting Zakat collection using artificial neural network

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sy Ahmad Ubaidillah, Sh. Hafizah; Sallehuddin, Roselina

    2013-04-01

    'Zakat', "that which purifies" or "alms", is the giving of a fixed portion of one's wealth to charity, generally to the poor and needy. It is one of the five pillars of Islam, and must be paid by all practicing Muslims who have the financial means (nisab). 'Nisab' is the minimum level to determine whether there is a 'zakat' to be paid on the assets. Today, in most Muslim countries, 'zakat' is collected through a decentralized and voluntary system. Under this voluntary system, 'zakat' committees are established, which are tasked with the collection and distribution of 'zakat' funds. 'Zakat' promotes a more equitable redistribution of wealth, and fosters a sense of solidarity amongst members of the 'Ummah'. The Malaysian government has established a 'zakat' center at every state to facilitate the management of 'zakat'. The center has to have a good 'zakat' management system to effectively execute its functions especially in the collection and distribution of 'zakat'. Therefore, a good forecasting model is needed. The purpose of this study is to develop a forecasting model for Pusat Zakat Pahang (PZP) to predict the total amount of collection from 'zakat' of assets more precisely. In this study, two different Artificial Neural Network (ANN) models using two different learning algorithms are developed; Back Propagation (BP) and Levenberg-Marquardt (LM). Both models are developed and compared in terms of their accuracy performance. The best model is determined based on the lowest mean square error and the highest correlations values. Based on the results obtained from the study, BP neural network is recommended as the forecasting model to forecast the collection from 'zakat' of assets for PZP.

  7. Forecasting of electricity prices with neural networks

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gareta, Raquel [Centro de Investigacion de Recursos y Consumos Energeticos (CIRCE), Universidad de Zaragoza, Centro Politecnico Superior, Maria de Luna, 3, 50018 Zaragoza (Spain); Romeo, Luis M. [Centro de Investigacion de Recursos y Consumos Energeticos (CIRCE), Universidad de Zaragoza, Centro Politecnico Superior, Maria de Luna, 3, 50018 Zaragoza (Spain)]. E-mail: luismi@unizar.es; Gil, Antonia [Centro de Investigacion de Recursos y Consumos Energeticos (CIRCE), Universidad de Zaragoza, Centro Politecnico Superior, Maria de Luna, 3, 50018 Zaragoza (Spain)

    2006-08-15

    During recent years, the electricity energy market deregulation has led to a new free competition situation in Europe and other countries worldwide. Generators, distributors and qualified clients have some uncertainties about the future evolution of electricity markets. In consequence, feasibility studies of new generation plants, design of new systems and energy management optimization are frequently postponed. The ability of forecasting energy prices, for instance the electricity prices, would be highly appreciated in order to improve the profitability of utility investments. The development of new simulation techniques, such as Artificial Intelligence (AI), has provided a good tool to forecast time series. In this paper, it is demonstrated that the Neural Network (NN) approach can be used to forecast short term hourly electricity pool prices (for the next day and two or three days after). The NN architecture and design for prices forecasting are described in this paper. The results are tested with extensive data sets, and good agreement is found between actual data and NN results. This methodology could help to improve power plant generation capacity management and, certainly, more profitable operation in daily energy pools.

  8. Forecasting of electricity prices with neural networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gareta, Raquel; Romeo, Luis M.; Gil, Antonia

    2006-01-01

    During recent years, the electricity energy market deregulation has led to a new free competition situation in Europe and other countries worldwide. Generators, distributors and qualified clients have some uncertainties about the future evolution of electricity markets. In consequence, feasibility studies of new generation plants, design of new systems and energy management optimization are frequently postponed. The ability of forecasting energy prices, for instance the electricity prices, would be highly appreciated in order to improve the profitability of utility investments. The development of new simulation techniques, such as Artificial Intelligence (AI), has provided a good tool to forecast time series. In this paper, it is demonstrated that the Neural Network (NN) approach can be used to forecast short term hourly electricity pool prices (for the next day and two or three days after). The NN architecture and design for prices forecasting are described in this paper. The results are tested with extensive data sets, and good agreement is found between actual data and NN results. This methodology could help to improve power plant generation capacity management and, certainly, more profitable operation in daily energy pools

  9. Neural network versus classical time series forecasting models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nor, Maria Elena; Safuan, Hamizah Mohd; Shab, Noorzehan Fazahiyah Md; Asrul, Mohd; Abdullah, Affendi; Mohamad, Nurul Asmaa Izzati; Lee, Muhammad Hisyam

    2017-05-01

    Artificial neural network (ANN) has advantage in time series forecasting as it has potential to solve complex forecasting problems. This is because ANN is data driven approach which able to be trained to map past values of a time series. In this study the forecast performance between neural network and classical time series forecasting method namely seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average models was being compared by utilizing gold price data. Moreover, the effect of different data preprocessing on the forecast performance of neural network being examined. The forecast accuracy was evaluated using mean absolute deviation, root mean square error and mean absolute percentage error. It was found that ANN produced the most accurate forecast when Box-Cox transformation was used as data preprocessing.

  10. Daily Nigerian peak load forecasting using artificial neural network ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    A daily peak load forecasting technique that uses artificial neural network with seasonal indices is presented in this paper. A neural network of relatively smaller size than the main prediction network is used to predict the daily peak load for a period of one year over which the actual daily load data are available using one ...

  11. Forecasting Water Levels Using Artificial Neural Networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shreenivas N. Londhe

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available For all Ocean related activities it is necessary to predict the actual water levels as accurate as possible. The present work aims at predicting the water levels with a lead time of few hours to a day using the technique of artificial neural networks. Instead of using the previous and current values of observed water level time series directly as input and output the water level anomaly (difference between the observed water level and harmonically predicted tidal level is calculated for each hour and the ANN model is developed using this time series. The network predicted anomaly is then added to harmonic tidal level to predict the water levels. The exercise is carried out at six locations, two in The Gulf of Mexico, two in The Gulf of Maine and two in The Gulf of Alaska along the USA coastline. The ANN models performed reasonably well for all forecasting intervals at all the locations. The ANN models were also run in real time mode for a period of eight months. Considering the hurricane season in Gulf of Mexico the models were also tested particularly during hurricanes.

  12. Improving Artificial Neural Network Forecasts with Kalman Filtering ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    In this paper, we examine the use of the artificial neural network method as a forecasting technique in financial time series and the application of a Kalman filter algorithm to improve the accuracy of the model. Forecasting accuracy criteria are used to compare the two models over different set of data from different companies ...

  13. Neural network based photovoltaic electrical forecasting in south Algeria

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hamid Oudjana, S.; Hellal, A.; Hadj Mahammed, I

    2014-01-01

    Photovoltaic electrical forecasting is significance for the optimal operation and power predication of grid-connected photovoltaic (PV) plants, and it is important task in renewable energy electrical system planning and operating. This paper explores the application of neural networks (NN) to study the design of photovoltaic electrical forecasting systems for one week ahead using weather databases include the global irradiance, and temperature of Ghardaia city (south of Algeria) for one year of 2013 using a data acquisition system. Simulations were run and the results are discussed showing that neural networks Technique is capable to decrease the photovoltaic electrical forecasting error. (author)

  14. Improved Local Weather Forecasts Using Artificial Neural Networks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wollsen, Morten Gill; Jørgensen, Bo Nørregaard

    2015-01-01

    Solar irradiance and temperature forecasts are used in many different control systems. Such as intelligent climate control systems in commercial greenhouses, where the solar irradiance affects the use of supplemental lighting. This paper proposes a novel method to predict the forthcoming weather...... using an artificial neural network. The neural network used is a NARX network, which is known to model non-linear systems well. The predictions are compared to both a design reference year as well as commercial weather forecasts based upon numerical modelling. The results presented in this paper show...

  15. Probabilistic Wind Power Forecasting with Hybrid Artificial Neural Networks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wan, Can; Song, Yonghua; Xu, Zhao

    2016-01-01

    probabilities of prediction errors provide an alternative yet effective solution. This article proposes a hybrid artificial neural network approach to generate prediction intervals of wind power. An extreme learning machine is applied to conduct point prediction of wind power and estimate model uncertainties...... via a bootstrap technique. Subsequently, the maximum likelihood estimation method is employed to construct a distinct neural network to estimate the noise variance of forecasting results. The proposed approach has been tested on multi-step forecasting of high-resolution (10-min) wind power using...... actual wind power data from Denmark. The numerical results demonstrate that the proposed hybrid artificial neural network approach is effective and efficient for probabilistic forecasting of wind power and has high potential in practical applications....

  16. Forecasting Baltic Dirty Tanker Index by Applying Wavelet Neural Networks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fan, Shuangrui; JI, TINGYUN; Bergqvist, Rickard

    2013-01-01

    modeling techniques used in freight rate forecasting. At the same time research in shipping index forecasting e.g. BDTI applying artificial intelligent techniques is scarce. This analyses the possibilities to forecast the BDTI by applying Wavelet Neural Networks (WNN). Firstly, the characteristics...... of traditional and artificial intelligent forecasting techniques are discussed and rationales for choosing WNN are explained. Secondly, the components and features of BDTI will be explicated. After that, the authors delve the determinants and influencing factors behind fluctuations of the BDTI in order to set...

  17. Data Driven Broiler Weight Forecasting using Dynamic Neural Network Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Johansen, Simon Vestergaard; Bendtsen, Jan Dimon; Riisgaard-Jensen, Martin

    2017-01-01

    In this article, the dynamic influence of environmental broiler house conditions and broiler growth is investigated. Dynamic neural network forecasting models have been trained on farm-scale broiler batch production data from 12 batches from the same house. The model forecasts future broiler weight...... and uses environmental conditions such as heating, ventilation, and temperature along with broiler behavior such as feed and water consumption. Training data and forecasting data is analyzed to explain when the model might fail at generalizing. We present ensemble broiler weight forecasts to day 7, 14, 21...

  18. Wind Resource Assessment and Forecast Planning with Neural Networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nicolus K. Rotich

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available In this paper we built three types of artificial neural networks, namely: Feed forward networks, Elman networks and Cascade forward networks, for forecasting wind speeds and directions. A similar network topology was used for all the forecast horizons, regardless of the model type. All the models were then trained with real data of collected wind speeds and directions over a period of two years in the municipal of Puumala, Finland. Up to 70th percentile of the data was used for training, validation and testing, while 71–85th percentile was presented to the trained models for validation. The model outputs were then compared to the last 15% of the original data, by measuring the statistical errors between them. The feed forward networks returned the lowest errors for wind speeds. Cascade forward networks gave the lowest errors for wind directions; Elman networks returned the lowest errors when used for short term forecasting.

  19. Forecasting Flare Activity Using Deep Convolutional Neural Networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hernandez, T.

    2017-12-01

    Current operational flare forecasting relies on human morphological analysis of active regions and the persistence of solar flare activity through time (i.e. that the Sun will continue to do what it is doing right now: flaring or remaining calm). In this talk we present the results of applying deep Convolutional Neural Networks (CNNs) to the problem of solar flare forecasting. CNNs operate by training a set of tunable spatial filters that, in combination with neural layer interconnectivity, allow CNNs to automatically identify significant spatial structures predictive for classification and regression problems. We will start by discussing the applicability and success rate of the approach, the advantages it has over non-automated forecasts, and how mining our trained neural network provides a fresh look into the mechanisms behind magnetic energy storage and release.

  20. Forecasting electricity market pricing using artificial neural networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pao, Hsiao-Tien

    2007-01-01

    Electricity price forecasting is extremely important for all market players, in particular for generating companies: in the short term, they must set up bids for the spot market; in the medium term, they have to define contract policies; and in the long term, they must define their expansion plans. For forecasting long-term electricity market pricing, in order to avoid excessive round-off and prediction errors, this paper proposes a new artificial neural network (ANN) with single output node structure by using direct forecasting approach. The potentials of ANNs are investigated by employing a rolling cross validation scheme. Out of sample performance evaluated with three criteria across five forecasting horizons shows that the proposed ANNs are a more robust multi-step ahead forecasting method than autoregressive error models. Moreover, ANN predictions are quite accurate even when the length of the forecast horizon is relatively short or long

  1. Stacked Heterogeneous Neural Networks for Time Series Forecasting

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Florin Leon

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available A hybrid model for time series forecasting is proposed. It is a stacked neural network, containing one normal multilayer perceptron with bipolar sigmoid activation functions, and the other with an exponential activation function in the output layer. As shown by the case studies, the proposed stacked hybrid neural model performs well on a variety of benchmark time series. The combination of weights of the two stack components that leads to optimal performance is also studied.

  2. SOLAR PHOTOVOLTAIC OUTPUT POWER FORECASTING USING BACK PROPAGATION NEURAL NETWORK

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B. Jency Paulin

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Solar Energy is an important renewable and unlimited source of energy. Solar photovoltaic power forecasting, is an estimation of the expected power production, that help the grid operators to better manage the electric balance between power demand and supply. Neural network is a computational model that can predict new outcomes from past trends. The artificial neural network is used for photovoltaic plant energy forecasting. The output power for solar photovoltaic cell is predicted on hourly basis. In historical dataset collection process, two dataset was collected and used for analysis. The dataset was provided with three independent attributes and one dependent attributes. The implementation of Artificial Neural Network structure is done by Multilayer Perceptron (MLP and training procedure for neural network is done by error Back Propagation (BP. In order to train and test the neural network, the datasets are divided in the ratio 70:30. The accuracy of prediction can be done by using various error measurement criteria and the performance of neural network is to be noted.

  3. Deep Neural Network Based Demand Side Short Term Load Forecasting

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Seunghyoung Ryu

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available In the smart grid, one of the most important research areas is load forecasting; it spans from traditional time series analyses to recent machine learning approaches and mostly focuses on forecasting aggregated electricity consumption. However, the importance of demand side energy management, including individual load forecasting, is becoming critical. In this paper, we propose deep neural network (DNN-based load forecasting models and apply them to a demand side empirical load database. DNNs are trained in two different ways: a pre-training restricted Boltzmann machine and using the rectified linear unit without pre-training. DNN forecasting models are trained by individual customer’s electricity consumption data and regional meteorological elements. To verify the performance of DNNs, forecasting results are compared with a shallow neural network (SNN, a double seasonal Holt–Winters (DSHW model and the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA. The mean absolute percentage error (MAPE and relative root mean square error (RRMSE are used for verification. Our results show that DNNs exhibit accurate and robust predictions compared to other forecasting models, e.g., MAPE and RRMSE are reduced by up to 17% and 22% compared to SNN and 9% and 29% compared to DSHW.

  4. Genetic Algorithms vs. Artificial Neural Networks in Economic Forecasting Process

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nicolae Morariu

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper aims to describe the implementa-tion of a neural network and a genetic algorithm system in order to forecast certain economic indicators of a free market economy. In a free market economy forecasting process precedes the economic planning (a management function, providing important information for the result of the last process. Forecasting represents a starting point in setting of target for a firm, an organization or even a branch of the economy. Thus, the forecasting method used can influence in a significant mode the evolution of an entity. In the following we will describe the forecasting of an economic indicator using two intelligent systems. The difference between the results obtained by this two systems are described in chapter IV.

  5. Stock prices forecasting based on wavelet neural networks with PSO

    OpenAIRE

    Wang Kai-Cheng; Yang Chi-I; Chang Kuei-Fang

    2017-01-01

    This research examines the forecasting performance of wavelet neural network (WNN) model using published stock data obtained from Financial Times Stock Exchange (FTSE) Taiwan Stock Exchange (TWSE) 50 index, also known as Taiwan Stock Exchange Capitalization Weighted Stock Index (TAIEX), hereinafter referred to as Taiwan 50. Our WNN model uses particle swarm optimization (PSO) to choose the appropriate initial network values for different companies. The findings come with two advantages. First...

  6. Artificial neural networks applied to forecasting time series.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Montaño Moreno, Juan J; Palmer Pol, Alfonso; Muñoz Gracia, Pilar

    2011-04-01

    This study offers a description and comparison of the main models of Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) which have proved to be useful in time series forecasting, and also a standard procedure for the practical application of ANN in this type of task. The Multilayer Perceptron (MLP), Radial Base Function (RBF), Generalized Regression Neural Network (GRNN), and Recurrent Neural Network (RNN) models are analyzed. With this aim in mind, we use a time series made up of 244 time points. A comparative study establishes that the error made by the four neural network models analyzed is less than 10%. In accordance with the interpretation criteria of this performance, it can be concluded that the neural network models show a close fit regarding their forecasting capacity. The model with the best performance is the RBF, followed by the RNN and MLP. The GRNN model is the one with the worst performance. Finally, we analyze the advantages and limitations of ANN, the possible solutions to these limitations, and provide an orientation towards future research.

  7. An Artificial Neural Network for Data Forecasting Purposes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Catalina Lucia COCIANU

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Considering the fact that markets are generally influenced by different external factors, the stock market prediction is one of the most difficult tasks of time series analysis. The research reported in this paper aims to investigate the potential of artificial neural networks (ANN in solving the forecast task in the most general case, when the time series are non-stationary. We used a feed-forward neural architecture: the nonlinear autoregressive network with exogenous inputs. The network training function used to update the weight and bias parameters corresponds to gradient descent with adaptive learning rate variant of the backpropagation algorithm. The results obtained using this technique are compared with the ones resulted from some ARIMA models. We used the mean square error (MSE measure to evaluate the performances of these two models. The comparative analysis leads to the conclusion that the proposed model can be successfully applied to forecast the financial data.

  8. Electricity price forecasting using Enhanced Probability Neural Network

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lin, Whei-Min; Gow, Hong-Jey; Tsai, Ming-Tang

    2010-01-01

    This paper proposes a price forecasting system for electric market participants to reduce the risk of price volatility. Combining the Probability Neural Network (PNN) and Orthogonal Experimental Design (OED), an Enhanced Probability Neural Network (EPNN) is proposed in the solving process. In this paper, the Locational Marginal Price (LMP), system load and temperature of PJM system were collected and the data clusters were embedded in the Excel Database according to the year, season, workday, and weekend. With the OED to smooth parameters in the EPNN, the forecasting error can be improved during the training process to promote the accuracy and reliability where even the ''spikes'' can be tracked closely. Simulation results show the effectiveness of the proposed EPNN to provide quality information in a price volatile environment. (author)

  9. Toward automatic time-series forecasting using neural networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yan, Weizhong

    2012-07-01

    Over the past few decades, application of artificial neural networks (ANN) to time-series forecasting (TSF) has been growing rapidly due to several unique features of ANN models. However, to date, a consistent ANN performance over different studies has not been achieved. Many factors contribute to the inconsistency in the performance of neural network models. One such factor is that ANN modeling involves determining a large number of design parameters, and the current design practice is essentially heuristic and ad hoc, this does not exploit the full potential of neural networks. Systematic ANN modeling processes and strategies for TSF are, therefore, greatly needed. Motivated by this need, this paper attempts to develop an automatic ANN modeling scheme. It is based on the generalized regression neural network (GRNN), a special type of neural network. By taking advantage of several GRNN properties (i.e., a single design parameter and fast learning) and by incorporating several design strategies (e.g., fusing multiple GRNNs), we have been able to make the proposed modeling scheme to be effective for modeling large-scale business time series. The initial model was entered into the NN3 time-series competition. It was awarded the best prediction on the reduced dataset among approximately 60 different models submitted by scholars worldwide.

  10. Advanced approach to numerical forecasting using artificial neural networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michael Štencl

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available Current global market is driven by many factors, such as the information age, the time and amount of information distributed by many data channels it is practically impossible analyze all kinds of incoming information flows and transform them to data with classical methods. New requirements could be met by using other methods. Once trained on patterns artificial neural networks can be used for forecasting and they are able to work with extremely big data sets in reasonable time. The patterns used for learning process are samples of past data. This paper uses Radial Basis Functions neural network in comparison with Multi Layer Perceptron network with Back-propagation learning algorithm on prediction task. The task works with simplified numerical time series and includes forty observations with prediction for next five observations. The main topic of the article is the identification of the main differences between used neural networks architectures together with numerical forecasting. Detected differences then verify on practical comparative example.

  11. Artificial neural networks application for horizontal and vertical forecasting radionuclides transport

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Khil'ko, O.S.; Kovalenko, V.I.; Kundas, S.P.

    2010-01-01

    Artificial neural networks approach for horizontal and vertical radionuclide transport forecasting was proposed. Runoff factors analysis was considered. Additional artificial neural network structures for physical-chemical properties recognition were used. (authors)

  12. Trend time-series modeling and forecasting with neural networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Qi, Min; Zhang, G Peter

    2008-05-01

    Despite its great importance, there has been no general consensus on how to model the trends in time-series data. Compared to traditional approaches, neural networks (NNs) have shown some promise in time-series forecasting. This paper investigates how to best model trend time series using NNs. Four different strategies (raw data, raw data with time index, detrending, and differencing) are used to model various trend patterns (linear, nonlinear, deterministic, stochastic, and breaking trend). We find that with NNs differencing often gives meritorious results regardless of the underlying data generating processes (DGPs). This finding is also confirmed by the real gross national product (GNP) series.

  13. Stock prices forecasting based on wavelet neural networks with PSO

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wang Kai-Cheng

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available This research examines the forecasting performance of wavelet neural network (WNN model using published stock data obtained from Financial Times Stock Exchange (FTSE Taiwan Stock Exchange (TWSE 50 index, also known as Taiwan Stock Exchange Capitalization Weighted Stock Index (TAIEX, hereinafter referred to as Taiwan 50. Our WNN model uses particle swarm optimization (PSO to choose the appropriate initial network values for different companies. The findings come with two advantages. First, the network initial values are automatically selected instead of being a constant. Second, threshold and training data percentage become constant values, because PSO assists with self-adjustment. We can achieve a success rate over 73% without the necessity to manually adjust parameter or create another math model.

  14. Forecasting macroeconomic variables using neural network models and three automated model selection techniques

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kock, Anders Bredahl; Teräsvirta, Timo

    2016-01-01

    When forecasting with neural network models one faces several problems, all of which influence the accuracy of the forecasts. First, neural networks are often hard to estimate due to their highly nonlinear structure. To alleviate the problem, White (2006) presented a solution (QuickNet) that conv...

  15. Urban Ozone Concentration Forecasting with Artificial Neural Network in Corsica

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tamas Wani

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available Atmospheric pollutants concentration forecasting is an important issue in air quality monitoring. Qualitair Corse, the organization responsible for monitoring air quality in Corsica (France, needs to develop a short-term prediction model to lead its mission of information towards the public. Various deterministic models exist for local forecasting, but need important computing resources, a good knowledge of atmospheric processes and can be inaccurate because of local climatical or geographical particularities, as observed in Corsica, a mountainous island located in the Mediterranean Sea. As a result, we focus in this study on statistical models, and particularly Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs that have shown good results in the prediction of ozone concentration one hour ahead with data measured locally. The purpose of this study is to build a predictor realizing predictions of ozone 24 hours ahead in Corsica in order to be able to anticipate pollution peaks formation and to take appropriate preventive measures. Specific meteorological conditions are known to lead to particular pollution event in Corsica (e.g. Saharan dust events. Therefore, an ANN model will be used with pollutant and meteorological data for operational forecasting. Index of agreement of this model was calculated with a one year test dataset and reached 0.88.

  16. Results on SSH neural network forecasting in the Mediterranean Sea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rixen, Michel; Beckers, Jean-Marie; Alvarez, Alberto; Tintore, Joaquim

    2002-01-01

    Nowadays, satellites are the only monitoring systems that cover almost continuously all possible ocean areas and are now an essential part of operational oceanography. A novel approach based on artificial intelligence (AI) concepts, exploits pasts time series of satellite images to infer near future ocean conditions at the surface by neural networks and genetic algorithms. The size of the AI problem is drastically reduced by splitting the spatio-temporal variability contained in the remote sensing data by using empirical orthogonal function (EOF) decomposition. The problem of forecasting the dynamics of a 2D surface field can thus be reduced by selecting the most relevant empirical modes, and non-linear time series predictors are then applied on the amplitudes only. In the present case study, we use altimetric maps of the Mediterranean Sea, combining TOPEX-POSEIDON and ERS-1/2 data for the period 1992 to 1997. The learning procedure is applied to each mode individually. The final forecast is then reconstructed form the EOFs and the forecasted amplitudes and compared to the real observed field for validation of the method.

  17. Inflow forecasting using Artificial Neural Networks for reservoir operation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. Chiamsathit

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available In this study, multi-layer perceptron (MLP artificial neural networks have been applied to forecast one-month-ahead inflow for the Ubonratana reservoir, Thailand. To assess how well the forecast inflows have performed in the operation of the reservoir, simulations were carried out guided by the systems rule curves. As basis of comparison, four inflow situations were considered: (1 inflow known and assumed to be the historic (Type A; (2 inflow known and assumed to be the forecast (Type F; (3 inflow known and assumed to be the historic mean for month (Type M; and (4 inflow is unknown with release decision only conditioned on the starting reservoir storage (Type N. Reservoir performance was summarised in terms of reliability, resilience, vulnerability and sustainability. It was found that Type F inflow situation produced the best performance while Type N was the worst performing. This clearly demonstrates the importance of good inflow information for effective reservoir operation.

  18. Appraisal of artificial neural network for forecasting of economic parameters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kordanuli, Bojana; Barjaktarović, Lidija; Jeremić, Ljiljana; Alizamir, Meysam

    2017-01-01

    The main aim of this research is to develop and apply artificial neural network (ANN) with extreme learning machine (ELM) and back propagation (BP) to forecast gross domestic product (GDP) and Hirschman-Herfindahl Index (HHI). GDP could be developed based on combination of different factors. In this investigation GDP forecasting based on the agriculture and industry added value in gross domestic product (GDP) was analysed separately. Other inputs are final consumption expenditure of general government, gross fixed capital formation (investments) and fertility rate. The relation between product market competition and corporate investment is contentious. On one hand, the relation can be positive, but on the other hand, the relation can be negative. Several methods have been proposed to monitor market power for the purpose of developing procedures to mitigate or eliminate the effects. The most widely used methods are based on indices such as the Hirschman-Herfindahl Index (HHI). The reliability of the ANN models were accessed based on simulation results and using several statistical indicators. Based upon simulation results, it was presented that ELM shows better performances than BP learning algorithm in applications of GDP and HHI forecasting.

  19. Forecasting the mortality rates of Indonesian population by using neural network

    Science.gov (United States)

    Safitri, Lutfiani; Mardiyati, Sri; Rahim, Hendrisman

    2018-03-01

    A model that can represent a problem is required in conducting a forecasting. One of the models that has been acknowledged by the actuary community in forecasting mortality rate is the Lee-Certer model. Lee Carter model supported by Neural Network will be used to calculate mortality forecasting in Indonesia. The type of Neural Network used is feedforward neural network aligned with backpropagation algorithm in python programming language. And the final result of this study is mortality rate in forecasting Indonesia for the next few years

  20. Combining neural networks and genetic algorithms for hydrological flow forecasting

    Science.gov (United States)

    Neruda, Roman; Srejber, Jan; Neruda, Martin; Pascenko, Petr

    2010-05-01

    We present a neural network approach to rainfall-runoff modeling for small size river basins based on several time series of hourly measured data. Different neural networks are considered for short time runoff predictions (from one to six hours lead time) based on runoff and rainfall data observed in previous time steps. Correlation analysis shows that runoff data, short time rainfall history, and aggregated API values are the most significant data for the prediction. Neural models of multilayer perceptron and radial basis function networks with different numbers of units are used and compared with more traditional linear time series predictors. Out of possible 48 hours of relevant history of all the input variables, the most important ones are selected by means of input filters created by a genetic algorithm. The genetic algorithm works with population of binary encoded vectors defining input selection patterns. Standard genetic operators of two-point crossover, random bit-flipping mutation, and tournament selection were used. The evaluation of objective function of each individual consists of several rounds of building and testing a particular neural network model. The whole procedure is rather computational exacting (taking hours to days on a desktop PC), thus a high-performance mainframe computer has been used for our experiments. Results based on two years worth data from the Ploucnice river in Northern Bohemia suggest that main problems connected with this approach to modeling are ovetraining that can lead to poor generalization, and relatively small number of extreme events which makes it difficult for a model to predict the amplitude of the event. Thus, experiments with both absolute and relative runoff predictions were carried out. In general it can be concluded that the neural models show about 5 per cent improvement in terms of efficiency coefficient over liner models. Multilayer perceptrons with one hidden layer trained by back propagation algorithm and

  1. Forecasting financial asset processes: stochastic dynamics via learning neural networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Giebel, S; Rainer, M

    2010-01-01

    Models for financial asset dynamics usually take into account their inherent unpredictable nature by including a suitable stochastic component into their process. Unknown (forward) values of financial assets (at a given time in the future) are usually estimated as expectations of the stochastic asset under a suitable risk-neutral measure. This estimation requires the stochastic model to be calibrated to some history of sufficient length in the past. Apart from inherent limitations, due to the stochastic nature of the process, the predictive power is also limited by the simplifying assumptions of the common calibration methods, such as maximum likelihood estimation and regression methods, performed often without weights on the historic time series, or with static weights only. Here we propose a novel method of "intelligent" calibration, using learning neural networks in order to dynamically adapt the parameters of the stochastic model. Hence we have a stochastic process with time dependent parameters, the dynamics of the parameters being themselves learned continuously by a neural network. The back propagation in training the previous weights is limited to a certain memory length (in the examples we consider 10 previous business days), which is similar to the maximal time lag of autoregressive processes. We demonstrate the learning efficiency of the new algorithm by tracking the next-day forecasts for the EURTRY and EUR-HUF exchange rates each.

  2. Flood forecasting within urban drainage systems using NARX neural network.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abou Rjeily, Yves; Abbas, Oras; Sadek, Marwan; Shahrour, Isam; Hage Chehade, Fadi

    2017-11-01

    Urbanization activity and climate change increase the runoff volumes, and consequently the surcharge of the urban drainage systems (UDS). In addition, age and structural failures of these utilities limit their capacities, and thus generate hydraulic operation shortages, leading to flooding events. The large increase in floods within urban areas requires rapid actions from the UDS operators. The proactivity in taking the appropriate actions is a key element in applying efficient management and flood mitigation. Therefore, this work focuses on developing a flooding forecast system (FFS), able to alert in advance the UDS managers for possible flooding. For a forecasted storm event, a quick estimation of the water depth variation within critical manholes allows a reliable evaluation of the flood risk. The Nonlinear Auto Regressive with eXogenous inputs (NARX) neural network was chosen to develop the FFS as due to its calculation nature it is capable of relating water depth variation in manholes to rainfall intensities. The campus of the University of Lille is used as an experimental site to test and evaluate the FFS proposed in this paper.

  3. Local TEC Modelling and Forecasting using Neural Networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tebabal, A.; Radicella, S. M.; Nigussie, M.; Damtie, B.; Nava, B.; Yizengaw, E.

    2017-12-01

    Abstract Modelling the Earth's ionospheric characteristics is the focal task for the ionospheric community to mitigate its effect on the radio communication, satellite navigation and technologies. However, several aspects of modelling are still challenging, for example, the storm time characteristics. This paper presents modelling efforts of TEC taking into account solar and geomagnetic activity, time of the day and day of the year using neural networks (NNs) modelling technique. The NNs have been designed with GPS-TEC measured data from low and mid-latitude GPS stations. The training was conducted using the data obtained for the period from 2011 to 2014. The model prediction accuracy was evaluated using data of year 2015. The model results show that diurnal and seasonal trend of the GPS-TEC is well reproduced by the model for the two stations. The seasonal characteristics of GPS-TEC is compared with NN and NeQuick 2 models prediction when the latter one is driven by the monthly average value of solar flux. It is found that NN model performs better than the corresponding NeQuick 2 model for low latitude region. For the mid-latitude both NN and NeQuick 2 models reproduce the average characteristics of TEC variability quite successfully. An attempt of one day ahead forecast of TEC at the two locations has been made by introducing as driver previous day solar flux and geomagnetic index values. The results show that a reasonable day ahead forecast of local TEC can be achieved.

  4. New Models for Forecasting Enrollments: Fuzzy Time Series and Neural Network Approaches.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Song, Qiang; Chissom, Brad S.

    Since university enrollment forecasting is very important, many different methods and models have been proposed by researchers. Two new methods for enrollment forecasting are introduced: (1) the fuzzy time series model; and (2) the artificial neural networks model. Fuzzy time series has been proposed to deal with forecasting problems within a…

  5. Hybrid Forecasting Approach Based on GRNN Neural Network and SVR Machine for Electricity Demand Forecasting

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Weide Li

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Accurate electric power demand forecasting plays a key role in electricity markets and power systems. The electric power demand is usually a non-linear problem due to various unknown reasons, which make it difficult to get accurate prediction by traditional methods. The purpose of this paper is to propose a novel hybrid forecasting method for managing and scheduling the electricity power. EEMD-SCGRNN-PSVR, the proposed new method, combines ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD, seasonal adjustment (S, cross validation (C, general regression neural network (GRNN and support vector regression machine optimized by the particle swarm optimization algorithm (PSVR. The main idea of EEMD-SCGRNN-PSVR is respectively to forecast waveform and trend component that hidden in demand series to substitute directly forecasting original electric demand. EEMD-SCGRNN-PSVR is used to predict the one week ahead half-hour’s electricity demand in two data sets (New South Wales (NSW and Victorian State (VIC in Australia. Experimental results show that the new hybrid model outperforms the other three models in terms of forecasting accuracy and model robustness.

  6. Neural networks and traditional time series methods: a synergistic combination in state economic forecasts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hansen, J V; Nelson, R D

    1997-01-01

    Ever since the initial planning for the 1997 Utah legislative session, neural-network forecasting techniques have provided valuable insights for analysts forecasting tax revenues. These revenue estimates are critically important since agency budgets, support for education, and improvements to infrastructure all depend on their accuracy. Underforecasting generates windfalls that concern taxpayers, whereas overforecasting produces budget shortfalls that cause inadequately funded commitments. The pattern finding ability of neural networks gives insightful and alternative views of the seasonal and cyclical components commonly found in economic time series data. Two applications of neural networks to revenue forecasting clearly demonstrate how these models complement traditional time series techniques. In the first, preoccupation with a potential downturn in the economy distracts analysis based on traditional time series methods so that it overlooks an emerging new phenomenon in the data. In this case, neural networks identify the new pattern that then allows modification of the time series models and finally gives more accurate forecasts. In the second application, data structure found by traditional statistical tools allows analysts to provide neural networks with important information that the networks then use to create more accurate models. In summary, for the Utah revenue outlook, the insights that result from a portfolio of forecasts that includes neural networks exceeds the understanding generated from strictly statistical forecasting techniques. In this case, the synergy clearly results in the whole of the portfolio of forecasts being more accurate than the sum of the individual parts.

  7. Artificial neural network models' application for radioactive substances' migration forecasting in soil

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kovalenko, V.I.; Khil'ko, O.S.; Kundas, S.P.

    2009-01-01

    The work is indicated to the use of artificial neural network (ANN) models in program complex SPS for radioactive substances' migration forecasting in soil. For the problem solution two ANN models are used. One of them forecasts radioactive substances' migration, another carries out forecasting of physical and chemical soil properties. Program complex SPS allows to achieve a low error of forecasting (no more than 5 %) and high training speed. (authors)

  8. Forecasting of passenger traffic in Moscow metro applying artificial neural networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ivanov, V.V.; Natsional'nyj Issledovatel'skij Yadernyj Univ. MIFI, Moscow; FKU Rostransmodernizatsiya, Moscow

    2016-01-01

    Methods for the forecasting of passenger traffic in Moscow metro have been developed using artificial neural networks. To this end, the factors primarily determining passenger traffic in the subway have been analyzed and selected [ru

  9. Explicitly integrating parameter, input, and structure uncertainties into Bayesian Neural Networks for probabilistic hydrologic forecasting

    KAUST Repository

    Zhang, Xuesong; Liang, Faming; Yu, Beibei; Zong, Ziliang

    2011-01-01

    Estimating uncertainty of hydrologic forecasting is valuable to water resources and other relevant decision making processes. Recently, Bayesian Neural Networks (BNNs) have been proved powerful tools for quantifying uncertainty of streamflow

  10. Forecasting short-term data center network traffic load with convolutional neural networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ordozgoiti, Bruno; Gómez-Canaval, Sandra

    2018-01-01

    Efficient resource management in data centers is of central importance to content service providers as 90 percent of the network traffic is expected to go through them in the coming years. In this context we propose the use of convolutional neural networks (CNNs) to forecast short-term changes in the amount of traffic crossing a data center network. This value is an indicator of virtual machine activity and can be utilized to shape the data center infrastructure accordingly. The behaviour of network traffic at the seconds scale is highly chaotic and therefore traditional time-series-analysis approaches such as ARIMA fail to obtain accurate forecasts. We show that our convolutional neural network approach can exploit the non-linear regularities of network traffic, providing significant improvements with respect to the mean absolute and standard deviation of the data, and outperforming ARIMA by an increasingly significant margin as the forecasting granularity is above the 16-second resolution. In order to increase the accuracy of the forecasting model, we exploit the architecture of the CNNs using multiresolution input distributed among separate channels of the first convolutional layer. We validate our approach with an extensive set of experiments using a data set collected at the core network of an Internet Service Provider over a period of 5 months, totalling 70 days of traffic at the one-second resolution. PMID:29408936

  11. Forecasting short-term data center network traffic load with convolutional neural networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mozo, Alberto; Ordozgoiti, Bruno; Gómez-Canaval, Sandra

    2018-01-01

    Efficient resource management in data centers is of central importance to content service providers as 90 percent of the network traffic is expected to go through them in the coming years. In this context we propose the use of convolutional neural networks (CNNs) to forecast short-term changes in the amount of traffic crossing a data center network. This value is an indicator of virtual machine activity and can be utilized to shape the data center infrastructure accordingly. The behaviour of network traffic at the seconds scale is highly chaotic and therefore traditional time-series-analysis approaches such as ARIMA fail to obtain accurate forecasts. We show that our convolutional neural network approach can exploit the non-linear regularities of network traffic, providing significant improvements with respect to the mean absolute and standard deviation of the data, and outperforming ARIMA by an increasingly significant margin as the forecasting granularity is above the 16-second resolution. In order to increase the accuracy of the forecasting model, we exploit the architecture of the CNNs using multiresolution input distributed among separate channels of the first convolutional layer. We validate our approach with an extensive set of experiments using a data set collected at the core network of an Internet Service Provider over a period of 5 months, totalling 70 days of traffic at the one-second resolution.

  12. Forecasting PM10 in metropolitan areas: Efficacy of neural networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fernando, H.J.S.; Mammarella, M.C.; Grandoni, G.; Fedele, P.; Di Marco, R.; Dimitrova, R.; Hyde, P.

    2012-01-01

    Deterministic photochemical air quality models are commonly used for regulatory management and planning of urban airsheds. These models are complex, computer intensive, and hence are prohibitively expensive for routine air quality predictions. Stochastic methods are becoming increasingly popular as an alternative, which relegate decision making to artificial intelligence based on Neural Networks that are made of artificial neurons or ‘nodes’ capable of ‘learning through training’ via historic data. A Neural Network was used to predict particulate matter concentration at a regulatory monitoring site in Phoenix, Arizona; its development, efficacy as a predictive tool and performance vis-à-vis a commonly used regulatory photochemical model are described in this paper. It is concluded that Neural Networks are much easier, quicker and economical to implement without compromising the accuracy of predictions. Neural Networks can be used to develop rapid air quality warning systems based on a network of automated monitoring stations.Highlights: ► Neural Network is an alternative technique to photochemical modelling. ► Neutral Networks can be as effective as traditional air photochemical modelling. ► Neural Networks are much easier and quicker to implement in health warning system. - Neutral networks are as effective as photochemical modelling for air quality predictions, but are much easier, quicker and economical to implement in air pollution (or health) warning systems.

  13. Artificial Neural Network versus Linear Models Forecasting Doha Stock Market

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yousif, Adil; Elfaki, Faiz

    2017-12-01

    The purpose of this study is to determine the instability of Doha stock market and develop forecasting models. Linear time series models are used and compared with a nonlinear Artificial Neural Network (ANN) namely Multilayer Perceptron (MLP) Technique. It aims to establish the best useful model based on daily and monthly data which are collected from Qatar exchange for the period starting from January 2007 to January 2015. Proposed models are for the general index of Qatar stock exchange and also for the usages in other several sectors. With the help of these models, Doha stock market index and other various sectors were predicted. The study was conducted by using various time series techniques to study and analyze data trend in producing appropriate results. After applying several models, such as: Quadratic trend model, double exponential smoothing model, and ARIMA, it was concluded that ARIMA (2,2) was the most suitable linear model for the daily general index. However, ANN model was found to be more accurate than time series models.

  14. Forecasting Kuala Lumpur Composite Index: Evidence of the Artificial Neural Network and Arima

    OpenAIRE

    Mahmud Iwan, Raditya Sukmana,

    2007-01-01

    The aim of this paper is to use, compare, and analyze two forecasting technique: namely Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average(ARIMA) and Artificial Neural Network(ANN) using Kuala Lumpur Composite Index(KLCI) in Malaysia. Artificial Neural Network is used because of its popularity of capturing the volatility patterns in nonlinear time series while ARIMA used since it is a standard method in the forecasting tool. Daily data of Kuala Lumpur Composite Index from 4 January 1999 to 26 Septembe...

  15. Cyclone track forecasting based on satellite images using artificial neural networks

    OpenAIRE

    Kovordanyi, Rita; Roy, Chandan

    2009-01-01

    Many places around the world are exposed to tropical cyclones and associated storm surges. In spite of massive efforts, a great number of people die each year as a result of cyclone events. To mitigate this damage, improved forecasting techniques must be developed. The technique presented here uses artificial neural networks to interpret NOAA-AVHRR satellite images. A multi-layer neural network, resembling the human visual system, was trained to forecast the movement of cyclones based on sate...

  16. Study of hourly and daily solar irradiation forecast using diagonal recurrent wavelet neural networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cao Jiacong; Lin Xingchun

    2008-01-01

    An accurate forecast of solar irradiation is required for various solar energy applications and environmental impact analyses in recent years. Comparatively, various irradiation forecast models based on artificial neural networks (ANN) perform much better in accuracy than many conventional prediction models. However, the forecast precision of most existing ANN based forecast models has not been satisfactory to researchers and engineers so far, and the generalization capability of these networks needs further improving. Combining the prominent dynamic properties of a recurrent neural network (RNN) with the enhanced ability of a wavelet neural network (WNN) in mapping nonlinear functions, a diagonal recurrent wavelet neural network (DRWNN) is newly established in this paper to perform fine forecasting of hourly and daily global solar irradiance. Some additional steps, e.g. applying historical information of cloud cover to sample data sets and the cloud cover from the weather forecast to network input, are adopted to help enhance the forecast precision. Besides, a specially scheduled two phase training algorithm is adopted. As examples, both hourly and daily irradiance forecasts are completed using sample data sets in Shanghai and Macau, and comparisons between irradiation models show that the DRWNN models are definitely more accurate

  17. Short-Term Load Forecasting Model Based on Quantum Elman Neural Networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhisheng Zhang

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Short-term load forecasting model based on quantum Elman neural networks was constructed in this paper. The quantum computation and Elman feedback mechanism were integrated into quantum Elman neural networks. Quantum computation can effectively improve the approximation capability and the information processing ability of the neural networks. Quantum Elman neural networks have not only the feedforward connection but also the feedback connection. The feedback connection between the hidden nodes and the context nodes belongs to the state feedback in the internal system, which has formed specific dynamic memory performance. Phase space reconstruction theory is the theoretical basis of constructing the forecasting model. The training samples are formed by means of K-nearest neighbor approach. Through the example simulation, the testing results show that the model based on quantum Elman neural networks is better than the model based on the quantum feedforward neural network, the model based on the conventional Elman neural network, and the model based on the conventional feedforward neural network. So the proposed model can effectively improve the prediction accuracy. The research in the paper makes a theoretical foundation for the practical engineering application of the short-term load forecasting model based on quantum Elman neural networks.

  18. Forecasting hourly global solar radiation using hybrid k-means and nonlinear autoregressive neural network models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Benmouiza, Khalil; Cheknane, Ali

    2013-01-01

    Highlights: • An unsupervised clustering algorithm with a neural network model was explored. • The forecasting results of solar radiation time series and the comparison of their performance was simulated. • A new method was proposed combining k-means algorithm and NAR network to provide better prediction results. - Abstract: In this paper, we review our work for forecasting hourly global horizontal solar radiation based on the combination of unsupervised k-means clustering algorithm and artificial neural networks (ANN). k-Means algorithm focused on extracting useful information from the data with the aim of modeling the time series behavior and find patterns of the input space by clustering the data. On the other hand, nonlinear autoregressive (NAR) neural networks are powerful computational models for modeling and forecasting nonlinear time series. Taking the advantage of both methods, a new method was proposed combining k-means algorithm and NAR network to provide better forecasting results

  19. Demand Forecasting Methods in Accommodation Establishments: A Research with Artificial Neural Networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ebru ULUCAN

    2018-05-01

    Full Text Available As it being seen in every sector, demand forecasting in tourism is been conducted with various qualitative and quantitative methods. In recent years, artificial neural network models, which have been developed as an alternative to these forecasting methods, give the nearest values in forecasting with the smallest failure percentage. This study aims to reveal that accomodation establishments can use the neural network models as an alternative while forecasting their demand. With this aim, neural network models have been tested by using the sold room values between the period of 2013-2016 of a five star hotel in Istanbul and it is found that the results acquired from the testing models are the nearest values comparing the realized figures. In the light of these results, tourism demand of the hotel for 2017 and 2018 has been forecasted.

  20. Ridge Polynomial Neural Network with Error Feedback for Time Series Forecasting.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Waheeb, Waddah; Ghazali, Rozaida; Herawan, Tutut

    2016-01-01

    Time series forecasting has gained much attention due to its many practical applications. Higher-order neural network with recurrent feedback is a powerful technique that has been used successfully for time series forecasting. It maintains fast learning and the ability to learn the dynamics of the time series over time. Network output feedback is the most common recurrent feedback for many recurrent neural network models. However, not much attention has been paid to the use of network error feedback instead of network output feedback. In this study, we propose a novel model, called Ridge Polynomial Neural Network with Error Feedback (RPNN-EF) that incorporates higher order terms, recurrence and error feedback. To evaluate the performance of RPNN-EF, we used four univariate time series with different forecasting horizons, namely star brightness, monthly smoothed sunspot numbers, daily Euro/Dollar exchange rate, and Mackey-Glass time-delay differential equation. We compared the forecasting performance of RPNN-EF with the ordinary Ridge Polynomial Neural Network (RPNN) and the Dynamic Ridge Polynomial Neural Network (DRPNN). Simulation results showed an average 23.34% improvement in Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) with respect to RPNN and an average 10.74% improvement with respect to DRPNN. That means that using network errors during training helps enhance the overall forecasting performance for the network.

  1. Ridge Polynomial Neural Network with Error Feedback for Time Series Forecasting.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Waddah Waheeb

    Full Text Available Time series forecasting has gained much attention due to its many practical applications. Higher-order neural network with recurrent feedback is a powerful technique that has been used successfully for time series forecasting. It maintains fast learning and the ability to learn the dynamics of the time series over time. Network output feedback is the most common recurrent feedback for many recurrent neural network models. However, not much attention has been paid to the use of network error feedback instead of network output feedback. In this study, we propose a novel model, called Ridge Polynomial Neural Network with Error Feedback (RPNN-EF that incorporates higher order terms, recurrence and error feedback. To evaluate the performance of RPNN-EF, we used four univariate time series with different forecasting horizons, namely star brightness, monthly smoothed sunspot numbers, daily Euro/Dollar exchange rate, and Mackey-Glass time-delay differential equation. We compared the forecasting performance of RPNN-EF with the ordinary Ridge Polynomial Neural Network (RPNN and the Dynamic Ridge Polynomial Neural Network (DRPNN. Simulation results showed an average 23.34% improvement in Root Mean Square Error (RMSE with respect to RPNN and an average 10.74% improvement with respect to DRPNN. That means that using network errors during training helps enhance the overall forecasting performance for the network.

  2. Analysis and forecast of railway coal transportation volume based on BP neural network combined forecasting model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Yongbin; Xie, Haihong; Wu, Liuyi

    2018-05-01

    The share of coal transportation in the total railway freight volume is about 50%. As is widely acknowledged, coal industry is vulnerable to the economic situation and national policies. Coal transportation volume fluctuates significantly under the new economic normal. Grasp the overall development trend of railway coal transportation market, have important reference and guidance significance to the railway and coal industry decision-making. By analyzing the economic indicators and policy implications, this paper expounds the trend of the coal transportation volume, and further combines the economic indicators with the high correlation with the coal transportation volume with the traditional traffic prediction model to establish a combined forecasting model based on the back propagation neural network. The error of the prediction results is tested, which proves that the method has higher accuracy and has practical application.

  3. A High Precision Artificial Neural Networks Model for Short-Term Energy Load Forecasting

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ping-Huan Kuo

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available One of the most important research topics in smart grid technology is load forecasting, because accuracy of load forecasting highly influences reliability of the smart grid systems. In the past, load forecasting was obtained by traditional analysis techniques such as time series analysis and linear regression. Since the load forecast focuses on aggregated electricity consumption patterns, researchers have recently integrated deep learning approaches with machine learning techniques. In this study, an accurate deep neural network algorithm for short-term load forecasting (STLF is introduced. The forecasting performance of proposed algorithm is compared with performances of five artificial intelligence algorithms that are commonly used in load forecasting. The Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE and Cumulative Variation of Root Mean Square Error (CV-RMSE are used as accuracy evaluation indexes. The experiment results show that MAPE and CV-RMSE of proposed algorithm are 9.77% and 11.66%, respectively, displaying very high forecasting accuracy.

  4. Modelling and Forecasting Cruise Tourism Demand to İzmir by Different Artificial Neural Network Architectures

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Murat Cuhadar

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Cruise ports emerged as an important sector for the economy of Turkey bordered on three sides by water. Forecasting cruise tourism demand ensures better planning, efficient preparation at the destination and it is the basis for elaboration of future plans. In the recent years, new techniques such as; artificial neural networks were employed for developing of the predictive models to estimate tourism demand. In this study, it is aimed to determine the forecasting method that provides the best performance when compared the forecast accuracy of Multi-layer Perceptron (MLP, Radial Basis Function (RBF and Generalized Regression neural network (GRNN to estimate the monthly inbound cruise tourism demand to İzmir via the method giving best results. We used the total number of foreign cruise tourist arrivals as a measure of inbound cruise tourism demand and monthly cruise tourist arrivals to İzmir Cruise Port in the period of January 2005 ‐December 2013 were utilized to appropriate model. Experimental results showed that radial basis function (RBF neural network outperforms multi-layer perceptron (MLP and the generalised regression neural networks (GRNN in terms of forecasting accuracy. By the means of the obtained RBF neural network model, it has been forecasted the monthly inbound cruise tourism demand to İzmir for the year 2014.

  5. A grey neural network and input-output combined forecasting model. Primary energy consumption forecasts in Spanish economic sectors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Liu, Xiuli; Moreno, Blanca; García, Ana Salomé

    2016-01-01

    A combined forecast of Grey forecasting method and neural network back propagation model, which is called Grey Neural Network and Input-Output Combined Forecasting Model (GNF-IO model), is proposed. A real case of energy consumption forecast is used to validate the effectiveness of the proposed model. The GNF-IO model predicts coal, crude oil, natural gas, renewable and nuclear primary energy consumption volumes by Spain's 36 sub-sectors from 2010 to 2015 according to three different GDP growth scenarios (optimistic, baseline and pessimistic). Model test shows that the proposed model has higher simulation and forecasting accuracy on energy consumption than Grey models separately and other combination methods. The forecasts indicate that the primary energies as coal, crude oil and natural gas will represent on average the 83.6% percent of the total of primary energy consumption, raising concerns about security of supply and energy cost and adding risk for some industrial production processes. Thus, Spanish industry must speed up its transition to an energy-efficiency economy, achieving a cost reduction and increase in the level of self-supply. - Highlights: • Forecasting System Using Grey Models combined with Input-Output Models is proposed. • Primary energy consumption in Spain is used to validate the model. • The grey-based combined model has good forecasting performance. • Natural gas will represent the majority of the total of primary energy consumption. • Concerns about security of supply, energy cost and industry competitiveness are raised.

  6. Forecasting SPEI and SPI Drought Indices Using the Integrated Artificial Neural Networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Petr Maca

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The presented paper compares forecast of drought indices based on two different models of artificial neural networks. The first model is based on feedforward multilayer perceptron, sANN, and the second one is the integrated neural network model, hANN. The analyzed drought indices are the standardized precipitation index (SPI and the standardized precipitation evaporation index (SPEI and were derived for the period of 1948–2002 on two US catchments. The meteorological and hydrological data were obtained from MOPEX experiment. The training of both neural network models was made by the adaptive version of differential evolution, JADE. The comparison of models was based on six model performance measures. The results of drought indices forecast, explained by the values of four model performance indices, show that the integrated neural network model was superior to the feedforward multilayer perceptron with one hidden layer of neurons.

  7. Forecasting solar proton event with artificial neural network

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gong, J.; Wang, J.; Xue, B.; Liu, S.; Zou, Z.

    Solar proton event (SPE), relatively rare but popular in solar maximum, can bring hazard situation to spacecraft. As a special event, SPE always accompanies flare, which is also called proton flare. To produce such an eruptive event, large amount energy must be accumulated within the active region. So we can investigate the character of the active region and its evolving trend, together with other such as cm radio emission and soft X-ray background to evaluate the potential of SEP in chosen area. In order to summarize the omen of SPEs in the active regions behind the observed parameters, we employed AI technology. Full connecting neural network was chosen to fulfil this job. After constructing the network, we train it with 13 parameters that was able to exhibit the character of active regions and their evolution trend. More than 80 sets of event parameter were defined to teach the neural network to identify whether an active region was potential of SPE. Then we test this model with a data base consisting SPE and non-SPE cases that was not used to train the neural network. The result showed that 75% of the choice by the model was right.

  8. FORECASTING KUALA LUMPUR COMPOSITE INDEX: EVIDENCE OF THE ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORK AND ARIMA

    OpenAIRE

    Sukmana, Raditya; Solihin, Mahmud Iwan

    2007-01-01

    The aim of this paper is to use, compare, and analyze two forecasting technique: namelyAuto Regressive Integrated Moving Average(ARIMA) and Artificial NeuralNetwork(ANN) using Kuala Lumpur Composite Index(KLCI) in Malaysia. ArtificialNeural Network is used because of its popularity of capturing the volatility patterns innonlinear time series while ARIMA used since it is a standard method in the forecastingtool. Daily data of Kuala Lumpur Composite Index from 4 January 1999 to 26 September2005...

  9. Short-term electricity prices forecasting in a competitive market: A neural network approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Catalao, J.P.S.; Mariano, S.J.P.S.; Mendes, V.M.F.; Ferreira, L.A.F.M.

    2007-01-01

    This paper proposes a neural network approach for forecasting short-term electricity prices. Almost until the end of last century, electricity supply was considered a public service and any price forecasting which was undertaken tended to be over the longer term, concerning future fuel prices and technical improvements. Nowadays, short-term forecasts have become increasingly important since the rise of the competitive electricity markets. In this new competitive framework, short-term price forecasting is required by producers and consumers to derive their bidding strategies to the electricity market. Accurate forecasting tools are essential for producers to maximize their profits, avowing profit losses over the misjudgement of future price movements, and for consumers to maximize their utilities. A three-layered feedforward neural network, trained by the Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm, is used for forecasting next-week electricity prices. We evaluate the accuracy of the price forecasting attained with the proposed neural network approach, reporting the results from the electricity markets of mainland Spain and California. (author)

  10. Forecasting the daily electricity consumption in the Moscow region using artificial neural networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ivanov, V. V.; Kryanev, A. V.; Osetrov, E. S.

    2017-07-01

    In [1] we demonstrated the possibility in principle for short-term forecasting of daily volumes of passenger traffic in the Moscow metro with the help of artificial neural networks. During training and predicting, a set of the factors that affect the daily passenger traffic in the subway is passed to the input of the neural network. One of these factors is the daily power consumption in the Moscow region. Therefore, to predict the volume of the passenger traffic in the subway, we must first to solve the problem of forecasting the daily energy consumption in the Moscow region.

  11. Evaluation of artificial neural network techniques for flow forecasting in the River Yangtze, China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. W. Dawson

    2002-01-01

    Full Text Available While engineers have been quantifying rainfall-runoff processes since the mid-19th century, it is only in the last decade that artificial neural network models have been applied to the same task. This paper evaluates two neural networks in this context: the popular multilayer perceptron (MLP, and the radial basis function network (RBF. Using six-hourly rainfall-runoff data for the River Yangtze at Yichang (upstream of the Three Gorges Dam for the period 1991 to 1993, it is shown that both neural network types can simulate river flows beyond the range of the training set. In addition, an evaluation of alternative RBF transfer functions demonstrates that the popular Gaussian function, often used in RBF networks, is not necessarily the ‘best’ function to use for river flow forecasting. Comparisons are also made between these neural networks and conventional statistical techniques; stepwise multiple linear regression, auto regressive moving average models and a zero order forecasting approach. Keywords: Artificial neural network, multilayer perception, radial basis function, flood forecasting

  12. Short term and medium term power distribution load forecasting by neural networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yalcinoz, T.; Eminoglu, U.

    2005-01-01

    Load forecasting is an important subject for power distribution systems and has been studied from different points of view. In general, load forecasts should be performed over a broad spectrum of time intervals, which could be classified into short term, medium term and long term forecasts. Several research groups have proposed various techniques for either short term load forecasting or medium term load forecasting or long term load forecasting. This paper presents a neural network (NN) model for short term peak load forecasting, short term total load forecasting and medium term monthly load forecasting in power distribution systems. The NN is used to learn the relationships among past, current and future temperatures and loads. The neural network was trained to recognize the peak load of the day, total load of the day and monthly electricity consumption. The suitability of the proposed approach is illustrated through an application to real load shapes from the Turkish Electricity Distribution Corporation (TEDAS) in Nigde. The data represents the daily and monthly electricity consumption in Nigde, Turkey

  13. Model of Cholera Forecasting Using Artificial Neural Network in Chabahar City, Iran

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zahra Pezeshki

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available Background: Cholera as an endemic disease remains a health issue in Iran despite decrease in incidence. Since forecasting epidemic diseases provides appropriate preventive actions in disease spread, different forecasting methods including artificial neural networks have been developed to study parameters involved in incidence and spread of epidemic diseases such as cholera. Objectives: In this study, cholera in rural area of Chabahar, Iran was investigated to achieve a proper forecasting model. Materials and Methods: Data of cholera was gathered from 465 villages, of which 104 reported cholera during ten years period of study. Logistic regression modeling and correlate bivariate were used to determine risk factors and achieve possible predictive model one-hidden-layer perception neural network with backpropagation training algorithm and the sigmoid activation function was trained and tested between the two groups of infected and non-infected villages after preprocessing. For determining validity of prediction, the ROC diagram was used. The study variables included climate conditions and geographical parameters. Results: After determining significant variables of cholera incidence, the described artificial neural network model was capable of forecasting cholera event among villages of test group with accuracy up to 80%. The highest accuracy was achieved when model was trained with variables that were significant in statistical analysis describing that the two methods confirm the result of each other. Conclusions: Application of artificial neural networking assists forecasting cholera for adopting protective measures. For a more accurate prediction, comprehensive information is required including data on hygienic, social and demographic parameters.

  14. Particle Swarm Optimization-based BP Neural Network for UHV DC Insulator Pollution Forecasting

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fangcheng Lü

    2014-02-01

    Full Text Available In order to realize the forecasting of the UHV DC insulator's pollution conditions, we introduced a PSOBP algorithm. A BP neural network (BPNN with leakage current, temperature, relative humidity and dew point as input neurons, and ESDD as output neuron was built to forecast the ESDD. The PSO was used to optimize the the BPNN, which had great improved the convergence rate of the BP neural network. The dew point as a brand new input unit has improved the iteration speed of the PSOBP algorithm in this study. It was the first time that the PSOBP algorithm was applied to the UHV DC insulator pollution forecasting. The experiment results showed that the method had great advantages in accuracy and speed of convergence. The research showed that this algorithm was suitable for the UHV DC insulator pollution forecasting.

  15. Intelligent Soft Computing on Forex: Exchange Rates Forecasting with Hybrid Radial Basis Neural Network.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Falat, Lukas; Marcek, Dusan; Durisova, Maria

    2016-01-01

    This paper deals with application of quantitative soft computing prediction models into financial area as reliable and accurate prediction models can be very helpful in management decision-making process. The authors suggest a new hybrid neural network which is a combination of the standard RBF neural network, a genetic algorithm, and a moving average. The moving average is supposed to enhance the outputs of the network using the error part of the original neural network. Authors test the suggested model on high-frequency time series data of USD/CAD and examine the ability to forecast exchange rate values for the horizon of one day. To determine the forecasting efficiency, they perform a comparative statistical out-of-sample analysis of the tested model with autoregressive models and the standard neural network. They also incorporate genetic algorithm as an optimizing technique for adapting parameters of ANN which is then compared with standard backpropagation and backpropagation combined with K-means clustering algorithm. Finally, the authors find out that their suggested hybrid neural network is able to produce more accurate forecasts than the standard models and can be helpful in eliminating the risk of making the bad decision in decision-making process.

  16. Intelligent Soft Computing on Forex: Exchange Rates Forecasting with Hybrid Radial Basis Neural Network

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lukas Falat

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper deals with application of quantitative soft computing prediction models into financial area as reliable and accurate prediction models can be very helpful in management decision-making process. The authors suggest a new hybrid neural network which is a combination of the standard RBF neural network, a genetic algorithm, and a moving average. The moving average is supposed to enhance the outputs of the network using the error part of the original neural network. Authors test the suggested model on high-frequency time series data of USD/CAD and examine the ability to forecast exchange rate values for the horizon of one day. To determine the forecasting efficiency, they perform a comparative statistical out-of-sample analysis of the tested model with autoregressive models and the standard neural network. They also incorporate genetic algorithm as an optimizing technique for adapting parameters of ANN which is then compared with standard backpropagation and backpropagation combined with K-means clustering algorithm. Finally, the authors find out that their suggested hybrid neural network is able to produce more accurate forecasts than the standard models and can be helpful in eliminating the risk of making the bad decision in decision-making process.

  17. Intelligent Soft Computing on Forex: Exchange Rates Forecasting with Hybrid Radial Basis Neural Network

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marcek, Dusan; Durisova, Maria

    2016-01-01

    This paper deals with application of quantitative soft computing prediction models into financial area as reliable and accurate prediction models can be very helpful in management decision-making process. The authors suggest a new hybrid neural network which is a combination of the standard RBF neural network, a genetic algorithm, and a moving average. The moving average is supposed to enhance the outputs of the network using the error part of the original neural network. Authors test the suggested model on high-frequency time series data of USD/CAD and examine the ability to forecast exchange rate values for the horizon of one day. To determine the forecasting efficiency, they perform a comparative statistical out-of-sample analysis of the tested model with autoregressive models and the standard neural network. They also incorporate genetic algorithm as an optimizing technique for adapting parameters of ANN which is then compared with standard backpropagation and backpropagation combined with K-means clustering algorithm. Finally, the authors find out that their suggested hybrid neural network is able to produce more accurate forecasts than the standard models and can be helpful in eliminating the risk of making the bad decision in decision-making process. PMID:26977450

  18. Natural gas demand forecast system based on the application of artificial neural networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sanfeliu, J.M.; Doumanian, J.E.

    1997-01-01

    Gas Natural BAN, as a distribution gas company since 1993 in the north and west area of Buenos Aires Argentina, with 1,000,000 customers, had to develop a gas demand forecast system which should comply with the following basic requirements: Be able to do reliable forecasts with short historical information (2 years); Distinguish demands in areas of different characteristics, i.e. mainly residential, mainly industrial; Self-learning capability. To accomplish above goals, Gas Natural BAN chose in view of its own necessities, an artificial intelligence application (neural networks). 'SANDRA', the gas demand forecast system for gas distribution used by Gas Natural BAN, has the following features: Daily gas demand forecast, Hourly gas demand forecast and Breakdown of both forecast for each of the 3 basic zones in which the distribution area of Gas Natural BAN is divided. (au)

  19. Forecasting Natural Gas Prices Using Wavelets, Time Series, and Artificial Neural Networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jin, Junghwan; Kim, Jinsoo

    2015-01-01

    Following the unconventional gas revolution, the forecasting of natural gas prices has become increasingly important because the association of these prices with those of crude oil has weakened. With this as motivation, we propose some modified hybrid models in which various combinations of the wavelet approximation, detail components, autoregressive integrated moving average, generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity, and artificial neural network models are employed to predict natural gas prices. We also emphasize the boundary problem in wavelet decomposition, and compare results that consider the boundary problem case with those that do not. The empirical results show that our suggested approach can handle the boundary problem, such that it facilitates the extraction of the appropriate forecasting results. The performance of the wavelet-hybrid approach was superior in all cases, whereas the application of detail components in the forecasting was only able to yield a small improvement in forecasting performance. Therefore, forecasting with only an approximation component would be acceptable, in consideration of forecasting efficiency.

  20. An intelligent sales forecasting system through integration of artificial neural networks and fuzzy neural networks with fuzzy weight elimination.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kuo, R J; Wu, P; Wang, C P

    2002-09-01

    Sales forecasting plays a very prominent role in business strategy. Numerous investigations addressing this problem have generally employed statistical methods, such as regression or autoregressive and moving average (ARMA). However, sales forecasting is very complicated owing to influence by internal and external environments. Recently, artificial neural networks (ANNs) have also been applied in sales forecasting since their promising performances in the areas of control and pattern recognition. However, further improvement is still necessary since unique circumstances, e.g. promotion, cause a sudden change in the sales pattern. Thus, this study utilizes a proposed fuzzy neural network (FNN), which is able to eliminate the unimportant weights, for the sake of learning fuzzy IF-THEN rules obtained from the marketing experts with respect to promotion. The result from FNN is further integrated with the time series data through an ANN. Both the simulated and real-world problem results show that FNN with weight elimination can have lower training error compared with the regular FNN. Besides, real-world problem results also indicate that the proposed estimation system outperforms the conventional statistical method and single ANN in accuracy.

  1. Peak load demand forecasting using two-level discrete wavelet decomposition and neural network algorithm

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bunnoon, Pituk; Chalermyanont, Kusumal; Limsakul, Chusak

    2010-02-01

    This paper proposed the discrete transform and neural network algorithms to obtain the monthly peak load demand in mid term load forecasting. The mother wavelet daubechies2 (db2) is employed to decomposed, high pass filter and low pass filter signals from the original signal before using feed forward back propagation neural network to determine the forecasting results. The historical data records in 1997-2007 of Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand (EGAT) is used as reference. In this study, historical information of peak load demand(MW), mean temperature(Tmean), consumer price index (CPI), and industrial index (economic:IDI) are used as feature inputs of the network. The experimental results show that the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) is approximately 4.32%. This forecasting results can be used for fuel planning and unit commitment of the power system in the future.

  2. Input data preprocessing method for exchange rate forecasting via neural network

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Antić Dragan S.

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this paper is to present a method for neural network input parameters selection and preprocessing. The purpose of this network is to forecast foreign exchange rates using artificial intelligence. Two data sets are formed for two different economic systems. Each system is represented by six categories with 70 economic parameters which are used in the analysis. Reduction of these parameters within each category was performed by using the principal component analysis method. Component interdependencies are established and relations between them are formed. Newly formed relations were used to create input vectors of a neural network. The multilayer feed forward neural network is formed and trained using batch training. Finally, simulation results are presented and it is concluded that input data preparation method is an effective way for preprocessing neural network data. [Projekat Ministarstva nauke Republike Srbije, br.TR 35005, br. III 43007 i br. III 44006

  3. Forecasting Macroeconomic Variables using Neural Network Models and Three Automated Model Selection Techniques

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kock, Anders Bredahl; Teräsvirta, Timo

    such as the neural network model is not appropriate if the data is generated by a linear mechanism. Hence, it might be appropriate to test the null of linearity prior to building a nonlinear model. We investigate whether this kind of pretesting improves the forecast accuracy compared to the case where...

  4. Assessment of a conceptual hydrological model and artificial neural networks for daily outflows forecasting

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rezaeianzadeh, M.; Stein, A.; Tabari, H.; Abghari, H.; Jalalkamali, N.; Hosseinipour, E.Z.; Singh, V.P.

    2013-01-01

    Artificial neural networks (ANNs) are used by hydrologists and engineers to forecast flows at the outlet of a watershed. They are employed in particular where hydrological data are limited. Despite these developments, practitioners still prefer conventional hydrological models. This study applied

  5. Artificial neural networks to forecast biomass of Pacific sardine and its environment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Cisneros Mata, M.A.; Brey, T.; Jarre, Astrid

    1996-01-01

    We tested the forecasting performance of artificial neural networks (ANNs) using several time series of environmental and biotic data pertaining to the California Current (CC) neritic ecosystem. ANNs performed well predicting CC monthly 10-m depth temperature up to nine years in advance, using te...

  6. Comparisons of forecasting for hepatitis in Guangxi Province, China by using three neural networks models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ruijing Gan

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available This study compares and evaluates the prediction of hepatitis in Guangxi Province, China by using back propagation neural networks based genetic algorithm (BPNN-GA, generalized regression neural networks (GRNN, and wavelet neural networks (WNN. In order to compare the results of forecasting, the data obtained from 2004 to 2013 and 2014 were used as modeling and forecasting samples, respectively. The results show that when the small data set of hepatitis has seasonal fluctuation, the prediction result by BPNN-GA will be better than the two other methods. The WNN method is suitable for predicting the large data set of hepatitis that has seasonal fluctuation and the same for the GRNN method when the data increases steadily.

  7. An artificial neural network model for rainfall forecasting in Bangkok, Thailand

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N. Q. Hung

    2009-08-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents a new approach using an Artificial Neural Network technique to improve rainfall forecast performance. A real world case study was set up in Bangkok; 4 years of hourly data from 75 rain gauge stations in the area were used to develop the ANN model. The developed ANN model is being applied for real time rainfall forecasting and flood management in Bangkok, Thailand. Aimed at providing forecasts in a near real time schedule, different network types were tested with different kinds of input information. Preliminary tests showed that a generalized feedforward ANN model using hyperbolic tangent transfer function achieved the best generalization of rainfall. Especially, the use of a combination of meteorological parameters (relative humidity, air pressure, wet bulb temperature and cloudiness, the rainfall at the point of forecasting and rainfall at the surrounding stations, as an input data, advanced ANN model to apply with continuous data containing rainy and non-rainy period, allowed model to issue forecast at any moment. Additionally, forecasts by ANN model were compared to the convenient approach namely simple persistent method. Results show that ANN forecasts have superiority over the ones obtained by the persistent model. Rainfall forecasts for Bangkok from 1 to 3 h ahead were highly satisfactory. Sensitivity analysis indicated that the most important input parameter besides rainfall itself is the wet bulb temperature in forecasting rainfall.

  8. Prospects of application of artificial neural networks for forecasting of cargo transportation volume in transport systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. T. Yakupov

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of research – to identify the prospects for the use of neural network approach in relation to the tasks of economic forecasting of logistics performance, in particular of volume freight traffic in the transport system promiscuous regional freight traffic, as well as to substantiate the effectiveness of the use of artificial neural networks (ANN, as compared with the efficiency of traditional extrapolative methods of forecasting. The authors consider the possibility of forecasting to use ANN for these economic indicators not as an alternative to the traditional methods of statistical forecasting, but as one of the available simple means for solving complex problems.Materials and methods. When predicting the ANN, three methods of learning were used: 1 the Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm-network training stops when the generalization ceases to improve, which is shown by the increase in the mean square error of the output value; 2 Bayes regularization method - network training is stopped in accordance with the minimization of adaptive weights; 3 the method of scaled conjugate gradients, which is used to find the local extremum of a function on the basis of information about its values and gradient. The Neural Network Toolbox package is used for forecasting. The neural network model consists of a hidden layer of neurons with a sigmoidal activation function and an output neuron with a linear activation function, the input values of the dynamic time series, and the predicted value is removed from the output. For a more objective assessment of the prospects of the ANN application, the results of the forecast are presented in comparison with the results obtained in predicting the method of exponential smoothing.Results. When predicting the volumes of freight transportation by rail, satisfactory indicators of the verification of forecasting by both the method of exponential smoothing and ANN had been obtained, although the neural network

  9. Wind power forecast using wavelet neural network trained by improved Clonal selection algorithm

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chitsaz, Hamed; Amjady, Nima; Zareipour, Hamidreza

    2015-01-01

    Highlights: • Presenting a Morlet wavelet neural network for wind power forecasting. • Proposing improved Clonal selection algorithm for training the model. • Applying Maximum Correntropy Criterion to evaluate the training performance. • Extensive testing of the proposed wind power forecast method on real-world data. - Abstract: With the integration of wind farms into electric power grids, an accurate wind power prediction is becoming increasingly important for the operation of these power plants. In this paper, a new forecasting engine for wind power prediction is proposed. The proposed engine has the structure of Wavelet Neural Network (WNN) with the activation functions of the hidden neurons constructed based on multi-dimensional Morlet wavelets. This forecast engine is trained by a new improved Clonal selection algorithm, which optimizes the free parameters of the WNN for wind power prediction. Furthermore, Maximum Correntropy Criterion (MCC) has been utilized instead of Mean Squared Error as the error measure in training phase of the forecasting model. The proposed wind power forecaster is tested with real-world hourly data of system level wind power generation in Alberta, Canada. In order to demonstrate the efficiency of the proposed method, it is compared with several other wind power forecast techniques. The obtained results confirm the validity of the developed approach

  10. Electricity price forecast using Combinatorial Neural Network trained by a new stochastic search method

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Abedinia, O.; Amjady, N.; Shafie-khah, M.; Catalão, J.P.S.

    2015-01-01

    Highlights: • Presenting a Combinatorial Neural Network. • Suggesting a new stochastic search method. • Adapting the suggested method as a training mechanism. • Proposing a new forecast strategy. • Testing the proposed strategy on real-world electricity markets. - Abstract: Electricity price forecast is key information for successful operation of electricity market participants. However, the time series of electricity price has nonlinear, non-stationary and volatile behaviour and so its forecast method should have high learning capability to extract the complex input/output mapping function of electricity price. In this paper, a Combinatorial Neural Network (CNN) based forecasting engine is proposed to predict the future values of price data. The CNN-based forecasting engine is equipped with a new training mechanism for optimizing the weights of the CNN. This training mechanism is based on an efficient stochastic search method, which is a modified version of chemical reaction optimization algorithm, giving high learning ability to the CNN. The proposed price forecast strategy is tested on the real-world electricity markets of Pennsylvania–New Jersey–Maryland (PJM) and mainland Spain and its obtained results are extensively compared with the results obtained from several other forecast methods. These comparisons illustrate effectiveness of the proposed strategy.

  11. Neural Networks-Based Forecasting Regarding the Convergence Process of CEE Countries to the Eurozone

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Magdalena RĂDULESCU

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available In the crisis frame, many forecasts failed to provide well determined ratios. What we tried to explain in this paper is how some selected Central and Eastern European countries will perform in the near future: Romania, Bulgaria, Hungary, Poland and Czech Republic, using neural networks- based forecasting model which we created for the nominal and real convergence ratios. As a methodology, we propose the forecasting based on artificial neural network (ANN, using the well-known software tool GMDH Shell. For each output variable, we obtain a forecast model, according to previous values and other input related variables, and we applied the model to all countries. Our forecasts are much closer to the partial results of 2013 in the analyzed countries than the European Commission’s or other international organizations’ forecasts. The results of the forecast are important both for governments to design their financial strategies and for the investors in these selected countries. According to our results, the Czech Republic seems to be closer to achieve its nominal convergence in the next two years, but it faces great difficulties in the real convergence area, because it did not overpass the recession.

  12. Application of BP Neural Network Algorithm in Traditional Hydrological Model for Flood Forecasting

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jianjin Wang

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Flooding contributes to tremendous hazards every year; more accurate forecasting may significantly mitigate the damages and loss caused by flood disasters. Current hydrological models are either purely knowledge-based or data-driven. A combination of data-driven method (artificial neural networks in this paper and knowledge-based method (traditional hydrological model may booster simulation accuracy. In this study, we proposed a new back-propagation (BP neural network algorithm and applied it in the semi-distributed Xinanjiang (XAJ model. The improved hydrological model is capable of updating the flow forecasting error without losing the leading time. The proposed method was tested in a real case study for both single period corrections and real-time corrections. The results reveal that the proposed method could significantly increase the accuracy of flood forecasting and indicate that the global correction effect is superior to the second-order autoregressive correction method in real-time correction.

  13. Adaptive short-term electricity price forecasting using artificial neural networks in the restructured power markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yamin, H.Y.; Shahidehpour, S.M.; Li, Z.

    2004-01-01

    This paper proposes a comprehensive model for the adaptive short-term electricity price forecasting using Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) in the restructured power markets. The model consists: price simulation, price forecasting, and performance analysis. The factors impacting the electricity price forecasting, including time factors, load factors, reserve factors, and historical price factor are discussed. We adopted ANN and proposed a new definition for the MAPE using the median to study the relationship between these factors and market price as well as the performance of the electricity price forecasting. The reserve factors are included to enhance the performance of the forecasting process. The proposed model handles the price spikes more efficiently due to considering the median instead of the average. The IEEE 118-bus system and California practical system are used to demonstrate the superiority of the proposed model. (author)

  14. Using the Artificial Neural Networks for Forecasting the Risk of Bankruptcy of Banks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Markov Mykhailo Ye.

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available The article is aimed at finding the optimal structure of artificial neural network to solve the problem of forecasting the bankruptcy of banks and researching the efficiency of use of the neural networks model for the realities of Ukrainian banking sphere. Results of the research testify that the best accuracy of forecasts for 1-1,5 years showed the model on the basis of the multilayer perceptron with 10 and 2 neurons in the hidden layers. The developed neural networks model can be used as an alternative to statistical methods, as it has shown better results. Prospect for further research in this direction is development of a complex system of support for decision-making for banking institutions, which would include forecasting risks for bank, analysis of the bank’s financial condition and identification of financial problems using innovation instruments and technologies, ensuring the monitoring and control of risks of banking institution. The developed neural networks model can become one of elements of the complex system.

  15. Explicitly integrating parameter, input, and structure uncertainties into Bayesian Neural Networks for probabilistic hydrologic forecasting

    KAUST Repository

    Zhang, Xuesong

    2011-11-01

    Estimating uncertainty of hydrologic forecasting is valuable to water resources and other relevant decision making processes. Recently, Bayesian Neural Networks (BNNs) have been proved powerful tools for quantifying uncertainty of streamflow forecasting. In this study, we propose a Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) framework (BNN-PIS) to incorporate the uncertainties associated with parameters, inputs, and structures into BNNs. This framework allows the structure of the neural networks to change by removing or adding connections between neurons and enables scaling of input data by using rainfall multipliers. The results show that the new BNNs outperform BNNs that only consider uncertainties associated with parameters and model structures. Critical evaluation of posterior distribution of neural network weights, number of effective connections, rainfall multipliers, and hyper-parameters shows that the assumptions held in our BNNs are not well supported. Further understanding of characteristics of and interactions among different uncertainty sources is expected to enhance the application of neural networks for uncertainty analysis of hydrologic forecasting. © 2011 Elsevier B.V.

  16. DO DYNAMIC NEURAL NETWORKS STAND A BETTER CHANCE IN FRACTIONALLY INTEGRATED PROCESS FORECASTING?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Majid Delavari

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available The main purpose of the present study was to investigate the capabilities of two generations of models such as those based on dynamic neural network (e.g., Nonlinear Neural network Auto Regressive or NNAR model and a regressive (Auto Regressive Fractionally Integrated Moving Average model which is based on Fractional Integration Approach in forecasting daily data related to the return index of Tehran Stock Exchange (TSE. In order to compare these models under similar conditions, Mean Square Error (MSE and also Root Mean Square Error (RMSE were selected as criteria for the models’ simulated out-of-sample forecasting performance. Besides, fractal markets hypothesis was examined and according to the findings, fractal structure was confirmed to exist in the time series under investigation. Another finding of the study was that dynamic artificial neural network model had the best performance in out-of-sample forecasting based on the criteria introduced for calculating forecasting error in comparison with the ARFIMA model.

  17. A Comparative Study of Neural Networks and ANFIS for Forecasting Attendance Rate of Soccer Games

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mehmet Şahin

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available The main purpose of this study was to develop and apply a neural network (NN approach and an adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS model for forecasting the attendance rates at soccer games. The models were designed based on the characteristics of the problem. Past real data was used. Training data was used for training the models, and the testing data was used for evaluating the performance of the forecasting models. The obtained forecasting results were compared to the actual data and to each other. To evaluate the performance of the models, two statistical indicators, Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD and mean absolute percent error (MAPE, were used. Based on the results, the proposed neural network approach and the ANFIS model were shown to be effective in forecasting attendance at soccer games. The neural network approach performed better than the ANFIS model. The main contribution of this study is to introduce two effective techniques for estimating attendance at sports games. This is the first attempt to use an ANFIS model for that purpose.

  18. Forecasting energy market indices with recurrent neural networks: Case study of crude oil price fluctuations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wang, Jie; Wang, Jun

    2016-01-01

    In an attempt to improve the forecasting accuracy of crude oil price fluctuations, a new neural network architecture is established in this work which combines Multilayer perception and ERNN (Elman recurrent neural networks) with stochastic time effective function. ERNN is a time-varying predictive control system and is developed with the ability to keep memory of recent events in order to predict future output. The stochastic time effective function represents that the recent information has a stronger effect for the investors than the old information. With the established model the empirical research has a good performance in testing the predictive effects on four different time series indices. Compared to other models, the present model is possible to evaluate data from 1990s to today with extreme accuracy and speedy. The applied CID (complexity invariant distance) analysis and multiscale CID analysis, are provided as the new useful measures to evaluate a better predicting ability of the proposed model than other traditional models. - Highlights: • A new forecasting model is developed by a random Elman recurrent neural network. • The forecasting accuracy of crude oil price fluctuations is improved by the model. • The forecasting results of the proposed model are more accurate than compared models. • Two new distance analysis methods are applied to confirm the predicting results.

  19. Modeling Markov Switching ARMA-GARCH Neural Networks Models and an Application to Forecasting Stock Returns

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Melike Bildirici

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The study has two aims. The first aim is to propose a family of nonlinear GARCH models that incorporate fractional integration and asymmetric power properties to MS-GARCH processes. The second purpose of the study is to augment the MS-GARCH type models with artificial neural networks to benefit from the universal approximation properties to achieve improved forecasting accuracy. Therefore, the proposed Markov-switching MS-ARMA-FIGARCH, APGARCH, and FIAPGARCH processes are further augmented with MLP, Recurrent NN, and Hybrid NN type neural networks. The MS-ARMA-GARCH family and MS-ARMA-GARCH-NN family are utilized for modeling the daily stock returns in an emerging market, the Istanbul Stock Index (ISE100. Forecast accuracy is evaluated in terms of MAE, MSE, and RMSE error criteria and Diebold-Mariano equal forecast accuracy tests. The results suggest that the fractionally integrated and asymmetric power counterparts of Gray’s MS-GARCH model provided promising results, while the best results are obtained for their neural network based counterparts. Further, among the models analyzed, the models based on the Hybrid-MLP and Recurrent-NN, the MS-ARMA-FIAPGARCH-HybridMLP, and MS-ARMA-FIAPGARCH-RNN provided the best forecast performances over the baseline single regime GARCH models and further, over the Gray’s MS-GARCH model. Therefore, the models are promising for various economic applications.

  20. Forecast of TEXT plasma disruptions using soft X rays as input signal in a neural network

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vannucci, A.; Oliveira, K.A.; Tajima, T.

    1999-01-01

    A feedforward neural network with two hidden layers is used to forecast major and minor disruptive instabilities in TEXT tokamak discharges. Using the experimental data of soft X ray signals as input data, the neural network is trained with one disruptive plasma discharge, and a different disruptive discharge is used for validation. After being properly trained, the networks, with the same set of weights, are used to forecast disruptions in two other plasma discharges. It is observed that the neural network is able to predict the occurrence of a disruption more than 3 ms in advance. This time interval is almost 3 times longer than the one already obtained previously when a magnetic signal from a Mirnov coil was used to feed the neural networks. Visually no indication of an upcoming disruption is seen from the experimental data this far back from the time of disruption. Finally, by observing the predictive behaviour of the network for the disruptive discharges analysed and comparing the soft X ray data with the corresponding magnetic experimental signal, it is conjectured about where inside the plasma column the disruption first started. (author)

  1. Forecast on Water Locking Damage of Low Permeable Reservoir with Quantum Neural Network

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Jingyuan; Sun, Yuxue; Feng, Fuping; Zhao, Fulei; Sui, Dianjie; Xu, Jianjun

    2018-01-01

    It is of great importance in oil-gas reservoir protection to timely and correctly forecast the water locking damage, the greatest damage for low permeable reservoir. An analysis is conducted on the production mechanism and various influence factors of water locking damage, based on which a quantum neuron is constructed based on the information processing manner of a biological neuron and the principle of quantum neural algorithm, besides, the quantum neural network model forecasting the water locking of the reservoir is established and related software is also made to forecast the water locking damage of the gas reservoir. This method has overcome the defects of grey correlation analysis that requires evaluation matrix analysis and complicated operation. According to the practice in Longxi Area of Daqing Oilfield, this method is characterized by fast operation, few system parameters and high accuracy rate (the general incidence rate may reach 90%), which can provide reliable support for the protection technique of low permeable reservoir.

  2. Neural networks approach to forecast several hour ahead electricity prices and loads in deregulated market

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mandal, Paras; Senjyu, Tomonobu [Department of Electrical and Electronics, University of the Ryukyus, 1 Senbaru, Nagakami Nishihara, Okinawa 903-0213 (Japan); Funabashi, Toshihisa [Meidensha Corporation, Tokyo 103-8515 (Japan)

    2006-09-15

    In daily power markets, forecasting electricity prices and loads are the most essential task and the basis for any decision making. An approach to predict the market behaviors is to use the historical prices, loads and other required information to forecast the future prices and loads. This paper introduces an approach for several hour ahead (1-6h) electricity price and load forecasting using an artificial intelligence method, such as a neural network model, which uses publicly available data from the NEMMCO web site to forecast electricity prices and loads for the Victorian electricity market. An approach of selection of similar days is proposed according to which the load and price curves are forecasted by using the information of the days being similar to that of the forecast day. A Euclidean norm with weighted factors is used for the selection of the similar days. Two different ANN models, one for one to six hour ahead load forecasting and another for one to six hour ahead price forecasting have been proposed. The MAPE (mean absolute percentage error) results show a clear increasing trend with the increase in hour ahead load and price forecasting. The sample average of MAPEs for one hour ahead price forecasts is 9.75%. This figure increases to only 20.03% for six hour ahead predictions. Similarly, the one to six hour ahead load forecast errors (MAPE) range from 0.56% to 1.30% only. MAPE results show that several hour ahead electricity prices and loads in the deregulated Victorian market can be forecasted with reasonable accuracy. (author)

  3. Neural networks approach to forecast several hour ahead electricity prices and loads in deregulated market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mandal, Paras; Senjyu, Tomonobu; Funabashi, Toshihisa

    2006-01-01

    In daily power markets, forecasting electricity prices and loads are the most essential task and the basis for any decision making. An approach to predict the market behaviors is to use the historical prices, loads and other required information to forecast the future prices and loads. This paper introduces an approach for several hour ahead (1-6 h) electricity price and load forecasting using an artificial intelligence method, such as a neural network model, which uses publicly available data from the NEMMCO web site to forecast electricity prices and loads for the Victorian electricity market. An approach of selection of similar days is proposed according to which the load and price curves are forecasted by using the information of the days being similar to that of the forecast day. A Euclidean norm with weighted factors is used for the selection of the similar days. Two different ANN models, one for one to six hour ahead load forecasting and another for one to six hour ahead price forecasting have been proposed. The MAPE (mean absolute percentage error) results show a clear increasing trend with the increase in hour ahead load and price forecasting. The sample average of MAPEs for one hour ahead price forecasts is 9.75%. This figure increases to only 20.03% for six hour ahead predictions. Similarly, the one to six hour ahead load forecast errors (MAPE) range from 0.56% to 1.30% only. MAPE results show that several hour ahead electricity prices and loads in the deregulated Victorian market can be forecasted with reasonable accuracy

  4. Daily Crude Oil Price Forecasting Using Hybridizing Wavelet and Artificial Neural Network Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ani Shabri

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available A new method based on integrating discrete wavelet transform and artificial neural networks (WANN model for daily crude oil price forecasting is proposed. The discrete Mallat wavelet transform is used to decompose the crude price series into one approximation series and some details series (DS. The new series obtained by adding the effective one approximation series and DS component is then used as input into the ANN model to forecast crude oil price. The relative performance of WANN model was compared to regular ANN model for crude oil forecasting at lead times of 1 day for two main crude oil price series, West Texas Intermediate (WTI and Brent crude oil spot prices. In both cases, WANN model was found to provide more accurate crude oil prices forecasts than individual ANN model.

  5. Conditional time series forecasting with convolutional neural networks

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    A. Borovykh (Anastasia); S.M. Bohte (Sander); C.W. Oosterlee (Cornelis)

    2017-01-01

    textabstractForecasting financial time series using past observations has been a significant topic of interest. While temporal relationships in the data exist, they are difficult to analyze and predict accurately due to the non-linear trends and noise present in the series. We propose to learn these

  6. Financial impact of errors in business forecasting: a comparative study of linear models and neural networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Claudimar Pereira da Veiga

    2012-08-01

    Full Text Available The importance of demand forecasting as a management tool is a well documented issue. However, it is difficult to measure costs generated by forecasting errors and to find a model that assimilate the detailed operation of each company adequately. In general, when linear models fail in the forecasting process, more complex nonlinear models are considered. Although some studies comparing traditional models and neural networks have been conducted in the literature, the conclusions are usually contradictory. In this sense, the objective was to compare the accuracy of linear methods and neural networks with the current method used by the company. The results of this analysis also served as input to evaluate influence of errors in demand forecasting on the financial performance of the company. The study was based on historical data from five groups of food products, from 2004 to 2008. In general, one can affirm that all models tested presented good results (much better than the current forecasting method used, with mean absolute percent error (MAPE around 10%. The total financial impact for the company was 6,05% on annual sales.

  7. Short-term wind power forecasting in Portugal by neural networks and wavelet transform

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Catalao, J.P.S. [Department of Electromechanical Engineering, University of Beira Interior, R. Fonte do Lameiro, 6201-001 Covilha (Portugal); Center for Innovation in Electrical and Energy Engineering, Instituto Superior Tecnico, Technical University of Lisbon, Av. Rovisco Pais, 1049-001 Lisbon (Portugal); Pousinho, H.M.I. [Department of Electromechanical Engineering, University of Beira Interior, R. Fonte do Lameiro, 6201-001 Covilha (Portugal); Mendes, V.M.F. [Department of Electrical Engineering and Automation, Instituto Superior de Engenharia de Lisboa, R. Conselheiro Emidio Navarro, 1950-062 Lisbon (Portugal)

    2011-04-15

    This paper proposes artificial neural networks in combination with wavelet transform for short-term wind power forecasting in Portugal. The increased integration of wind power into the electric grid, as nowadays occurs in Portugal, poses new challenges due to its intermittency and volatility. Hence, good forecasting tools play a key role in tackling these challenges. Results from a real-world case study are presented. A comparison is carried out, taking into account the results obtained with other approaches. Finally, conclusions are duly drawn. (author)

  8. Comparing the Selected Transfer Functions and Local Optimization Methods for Neural Network Flood Runoff Forecast

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Petr Maca

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The presented paper aims to analyze the influence of the selection of transfer function and training algorithms on neural network flood runoff forecast. Nine of the most significant flood events, caused by the extreme rainfall, were selected from 10 years of measurement on small headwater catchment in the Czech Republic, and flood runoff forecast was investigated using the extensive set of multilayer perceptrons with one hidden layer of neurons. The analyzed artificial neural network models with 11 different activation functions in hidden layer were trained using 7 local optimization algorithms. The results show that the Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm was superior compared to the remaining tested local optimization methods. When comparing the 11 nonlinear transfer functions, used in hidden layer neurons, the RootSig function was superior compared to the rest of analyzed activation functions.

  9. Monthly electric energy demand forecasting with neural networks and Fourier series

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gonzalez-Romera, E.; Jaramillo-Moran, M.A.; Carmona-Fernandez, D.

    2008-01-01

    Medium-term electric energy demand forecasting is a useful tool for grid maintenance planning and market research of electric energy companies. Several methods, such as ARIMA, regression or artificial intelligence, have been usually used to carry out those predictions. Some approaches include weather or economic variables, which strongly influence electric energy demand. Economic variables usually influence the general series trend, while weather provides a periodic behavior because of its seasonal nature. This work investigates the periodic behavior of the Spanish monthly electric demand series, obtained by rejecting the trend from the consumption series. A novel hybrid approach is proposed: the periodic behavior is forecasted with a Fourier series while the trend is predicted with a neural network. Satisfactory results have been obtained, with a lower than 2% MAPE, which improve those reached when only neural networks or ARIMA were used for the same purpose. (author)

  10. Volatility Degree Forecasting of Stock Market by Stochastic Time Strength Neural Network

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Haiyan Mo

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available In view of the applications of artificial neural networks in economic and financial forecasting, a stochastic time strength function is introduced in the backpropagation neural network model to predict the fluctuations of stock price changes. In this model, stochastic time strength function gives a weight for each historical datum and makes the model have the effect of random movement, and then we investigate and forecast the behavior of volatility degrees of returns for the Chinese stock market indexes and some global market indexes. The empirical research is performed in testing the prediction effect of SSE, SZSE, HSI, DJIA, IXIC, and S&P 500 with different selected volatility degrees in the established model.

  11. Forecasting business cycle with chaotic time series based on neural network with weighted fuzzy membership functions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chai, Soo H.; Lim, Joon S.

    2016-01-01

    This study presents a forecasting model of cyclical fluctuations of the economy based on the time delay coordinate embedding method. The model uses a neuro-fuzzy network called neural network with weighted fuzzy membership functions (NEWFM). The preprocessed time series of the leading composite index using the time delay coordinate embedding method are used as input data to the NEWFM to forecast the business cycle. A comparative study is conducted using other methods based on wavelet transform and Principal Component Analysis for the performance comparison. The forecasting results are tested using a linear regression analysis to compare the approximation of the input data against the target class, gross domestic product (GDP). The chaos based model captures nonlinear dynamics and interactions within the system, which other two models ignore. The test results demonstrated that chaos based method significantly improved the prediction capability, thereby demonstrating superior performance to the other methods.

  12. Recurrent Neural Network For Forecasting Time Series With Long Memory Pattern

    Science.gov (United States)

    Walid; Alamsyah

    2017-04-01

    Recurrent Neural Network as one of the hybrid models are often used to predict and estimate the issues related to electricity, can be used to describe the cause of the swelling of electrical load which experienced by PLN. In this research will be developed RNN forecasting procedures at the time series with long memory patterns. Considering the application is the national electrical load which of course has a different trend with the condition of the electrical load in any country. This research produces the algorithm of time series forecasting which has long memory pattern using E-RNN after this referred to the algorithm of integrated fractional recurrent neural networks (FIRNN).The prediction results of long memory time series using models Fractional Integrated Recurrent Neural Network (FIRNN) showed that the model with the selection of data difference in the range of [-1,1] and the model of Fractional Integrated Recurrent Neural Network (FIRNN) (24,6,1) provides the smallest MSE value, which is 0.00149684.

  13. Recurrent networks for wave forecasting

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Mandal, S.; Prabaharan, N.

    , merchant vessel routing, nearshore construction, etc. more efficiently and safely. This paper presents an application of the Artificial Neural Network, namely Backpropagation Recurrent Neural Network (BRNN) with rprop update algorithm for wave forecasting...

  14. Analysis of recurrent neural networks for short-term energy load forecasting

    Science.gov (United States)

    Di Persio, Luca; Honchar, Oleksandr

    2017-11-01

    Short-term forecasts have recently gained an increasing attention because of the rise of competitive electricity markets. In fact, short-terms forecast of possible future loads turn out to be fundamental to build efficient energy management strategies as well as to avoid energy wastage. Such type of challenges are difficult to tackle both from a theoretical and applied point of view. Latter tasks require sophisticated methods to manage multidimensional time series related to stochastic phenomena which are often highly interconnected. In the present work we first review novel approaches to energy load forecasting based on recurrent neural network, focusing our attention on long/short term memory architectures (LSTMs). Such type of artificial neural networks have been widely applied to problems dealing with sequential data such it happens, e.g., in socio-economics settings, for text recognition purposes, concerning video signals, etc., always showing their effectiveness to model complex temporal data. Moreover, we consider different novel variations of basic LSTMs, such as sequence-to-sequence approach and bidirectional LSTMs, aiming at providing effective models for energy load data. Last but not least, we test all the described algorithms on real energy load data showing not only that deep recurrent networks can be successfully applied to energy load forecasting, but also that this approach can be extended to other problems based on time series prediction.

  15. Ensemble Nonlinear Autoregressive Exogenous Artificial Neural Networks for Short-Term Wind Speed and Power Forecasting.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Men, Zhongxian; Yee, Eugene; Lien, Fue-Sang; Yang, Zhiling; Liu, Yongqian

    2014-01-01

    Short-term wind speed and wind power forecasts (for a 72 h period) are obtained using a nonlinear autoregressive exogenous artificial neural network (ANN) methodology which incorporates either numerical weather prediction or high-resolution computational fluid dynamics wind field information as an exogenous input. An ensemble approach is used to combine the predictions from many candidate ANNs in order to provide improved forecasts for wind speed and power, along with the associated uncertainties in these forecasts. More specifically, the ensemble ANN is used to quantify the uncertainties arising from the network weight initialization and from the unknown structure of the ANN. All members forming the ensemble of neural networks were trained using an efficient particle swarm optimization algorithm. The results of the proposed methodology are validated using wind speed and wind power data obtained from an operational wind farm located in Northern China. The assessment demonstrates that this methodology for wind speed and power forecasting generally provides an improvement in predictive skills when compared to the practice of using an "optimal" weight vector from a single ANN while providing additional information in the form of prediction uncertainty bounds.

  16. Parametric analysis of parameters for electrical-load forecasting using artificial neural networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gerber, William J.; Gonzalez, Avelino J.; Georgiopoulos, Michael

    1997-04-01

    Accurate total system electrical load forecasting is a necessary part of resource management for power generation companies. The better the hourly load forecast, the more closely the power generation assets of the company can be configured to minimize the cost. Automating this process is a profitable goal and neural networks should provide an excellent means of doing the automation. However, prior to developing such a system, the optimal set of input parameters must be determined. The approach of this research was to determine what those inputs should be through a parametric study of potentially good inputs. Input parameters tested were ambient temperature, total electrical load, the day of the week, humidity, dew point temperature, daylight savings time, length of daylight, season, forecast light index and forecast wind velocity. For testing, a limited number of temperatures and total electrical loads were used as a basic reference input parameter set. Most parameters showed some forecasting improvement when added individually to the basic parameter set. Significantly, major improvements were exhibited with the day of the week, dew point temperatures, additional temperatures and loads, forecast light index and forecast wind velocity.

  17. Multifactor-influenced energy consumption forecasting using enhanced back-propagation neural network

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zeng, Yu-Rong; Zeng, Yi; Choi, Beomjin; Wang, Lin

    2017-01-01

    Reliable energy consumption forecasting can provide effective decision-making support for planning development strategies to energy enterprises and for establishing national energy policies. Accordingly, the present study aims to apply a hybrid intelligent approach named ADE–BPNN, the back-propagation neural network (BPNN) model supported by an adaptive differential evolution algorithm, to estimate energy consumption. Most often, energy consumption is influenced by socioeconomic factors. The proposed hybrid model incorporates gross domestic product, population, import, and export data as inputs. An improved differential evolution with adaptive mutation and crossover is utilized to find appropriate global initial connection weights and thresholds to enhance the forecasting performance of the BPNN. A comparative example and two extended examples are utilized to validate the applicability and accuracy of the proposed ADE–BPNN model. Errors of the test data sets indicate that the ADE–BPNN model can effectively predict energy consumption compared with the traditional back-propagation neural network model and other popular existing models. Moreover, mean impact value based analysis is conducted for electrical energy consumption in U.S. and total energy consumption forecasting in China to quantitatively explore the relative importance of each input variable for the improvement of effective energy consumption prediction. - Highlights: • Enhanced back-propagation neural network (ADE-BPNN) for energy consumption forecasting. • ADE-BPNN outperforms the current best models for two comparative cases. • Mean impact value approach explores socio-economic factors' relative importance. • ADE-BPNN's adjusted goodness-of-fit is 99.2% for China's energy consumption forecasting.

  18. Forecasting crude oil price with an EMD-based neural network ensemble learning paradigm

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yu, Lean; Wang, Shouyang; Lai, Kin Keung

    2008-01-01

    In this study, an empirical mode decomposition (EMD) based neural network ensemble learning paradigm is proposed for world crude oil spot price forecasting. For this purpose, the original crude oil spot price series were first decomposed into a finite, and often small, number of intrinsic mode functions (IMFs). Then a three-layer feed-forward neural network (FNN) model was used to model each of the extracted IMFs, so that the tendencies of these IMFs could be accurately predicted. Finally, the prediction results of all IMFs are combined with an adaptive linear neural network (ALNN), to formulate an ensemble output for the original crude oil price series. For verification and testing, two main crude oil price series, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil spot price and Brent crude oil spot price, are used to test the effectiveness of the proposed EMD-based neural network ensemble learning methodology. Empirical results obtained demonstrate attractiveness of the proposed EMD-based neural network ensemble learning paradigm. (author)

  19. Integrating a Storage Factor into R-NARX Neural Networks for Flood Forecasts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chou, Po-Kai; Chang, Li-Chiu; Chang, Fi-John; Shih, Ban-Jwu

    2017-04-01

    Because mountainous terrains and steep landforms rapidly accelerate the speed of flood flow in Taiwan island, accurate multi-step-ahead inflow forecasts during typhoon events for providing reliable information benefiting the decision-makings of reservoir pre-storm release and flood-control operation are considered crucial and challenging. Various types of artificial neural networks (ANNs) have been successfully applied in hydrological fields. This study proposes a recurrent configuration of the nonlinear autoregressive with exogenous inputs (NARX) network, called R-NARX, with various effective inputs to forecast the inflows of the Feitsui Reservoir, a pivot reservoir for water supply to Taipei metropolitan in Taiwan, during typhoon periods. The proposed R-NARX is constructed based on the recurrent neural network (RNN), which is commonly used for modelling nonlinear dynamical systems. A large number of hourly rainfall and inflow data sets collected from 95 historical typhoon events in the last thirty years are used to train, validate and test the models. The potential input variables, including rainfall in previous time steps (one to six hours), cumulative rainfall, the storage factor and the storage function, are assessed, and various models are constructed with their reliability and accuracy being tested. We find that the previous (t-2) rainfall and cumulative rainfall are crucial inputs and the storage factor and the storage function would also improve the forecast accuracy of the models. We demonstrate that the R-NARX model not only can accurately forecast the inflows but also effectively catch the peak flow without adopting observed inflow data during the entire typhoon period. Besides, the model with the storage factor is superior to the model with the storage function, where its improvement can reach 24%. This approach can well model the rainfall-runoff process for the entire flood forecasting period without the use of observed inflow data and can provide

  20. Data Pre-Analysis and Ensemble of Various Artificial Neural Networks for Monthly Streamflow Forecasting

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jianzhong Zhou

    2018-05-01

    Full Text Available This paper introduces three artificial neural network (ANN architectures for monthly streamflow forecasting: a radial basis function network, an extreme learning machine, and the Elman network. Three ensemble techniques, a simple average ensemble, a weighted average ensemble, and an ANN-based ensemble, were used to combine the outputs of the individual ANN models. The objective was to highlight the performance of the general regression neural network-based ensemble technique (GNE through an improvement of monthly streamflow forecasting accuracy. Before the construction of an ANN model, data preanalysis techniques, such as empirical wavelet transform (EWT, were exploited to eliminate the oscillations of the streamflow series. Additionally, a theory of chaos phase space reconstruction was used to select the most relevant and important input variables for forecasting. The proposed GNE ensemble model has been applied for the mean monthly streamflow observation data from the Wudongde hydrological station in the Jinsha River Basin, China. Comparisons and analysis of this study have demonstrated that the denoised streamflow time series was less disordered and unsystematic than was suggested by the original time series according to chaos theory. Thus, EWT can be adopted as an effective data preanalysis technique for the prediction of monthly streamflow. Concurrently, the GNE performed better when compared with other ensemble techniques.

  1. Application of Artificial Neural Networks to Rainfall Forecasting in Queensland, Australia

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    John ABBOT; Jennifer MAROHASY

    2012-01-01

    In this study,the application of artificial intelligence to monthly and seasonal rainfall forecasting in Queensland,Australia,was assessed by inputting recognized climate indices,monthly historical rainfall data,and atmospheric temperatures into a prototype stand-alone,dynamic,recurrent,time-delay,artificial neural network.Outputs,as monthly rainfall forecasts 3 months in advance for the period 1993 to 2009,were compared with observed rainfall data using time-series plots,root mean squared error (RMSE),and Pearson correlation coefficients.A comparison of RMSE values with forecasts generated by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology's Predictive Ocean Atmosphere Model for Australia (POAMA)-1.5 general circulation model (GCM) indicated that the prototype achieved a lower RMSE for 16 of the 17 sites compared.The application of artificial neural networks to rainfall forecasting was reviewed.The prototype design is considered preliminary,with potential for significant improvement such as inclusion of output from GCMs and experimentation with other input attributes.

  2. The Use of Artificial Neural Networks for Forecasting the Electric Demand of Stand-Alone Consumers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ivanin, O. A.; Direktor, L. B.

    2018-05-01

    The problem of short-term forecasting of electric power demand of stand-alone consumers (small inhabited localities) situated outside centralized power supply areas is considered. The basic approaches to modeling the electric power demand depending on the forecasting time frame and the problems set, as well as the specific features of such modeling, are described. The advantages and disadvantages of the methods used for the short-term forecast of the electric demand are indicated, and difficulties involved in the solution of the problem are outlined. The basic principles of arranging artificial neural networks are set forth; it is also shown that the proposed method is preferable when the input information necessary for prediction is lacking or incomplete. The selection of the parameters that should be included into the list of the input data for modeling the electric power demand of residential areas using artificial neural networks is validated. The structure of a neural network is proposed for solving the problem of modeling the electric power demand of residential areas. The specific features of generation of the training dataset are outlined. The results of test modeling of daily electric demand curves for some settlements of Kamchatka and Yakutia based on known actual electric demand curves are provided. The reliability of the test modeling has been validated. A high value of the deviation of the modeled curve from the reference curve obtained in one of the four reference calculations is explained. The input data and the predicted power demand curves for the rural settlement of Kuokuiskii Nasleg are provided. The power demand curves were modeled for four characteristic days of the year, and they can be used in the future for designing a power supply system for the settlement. To enhance the accuracy of the method, a series of measures based on specific features of a neural network's functioning are proposed.

  3. Day-ahead price forecasting in restructured power systems using artificial neural networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vahidinasab, V.; Jadid, S.; Kazemi, A.

    2008-01-01

    Over the past 15 years most electricity supply companies around the world have been restructured from monopoly utilities to deregulated competitive electricity markets. Market participants in the restructured electricity markets find short-term electricity price forecasting (STPF) crucial in formulating their risk management strategies. They need to know future electricity prices as their profitability depends on them. This research project classifies and compares different techniques of electricity price forecasting in the literature and selects artificial neural networks (ANN) as a suitable method for price forecasting. To perform this task, market knowledge should be used to optimize the selection of input data for an electricity price forecasting tool. Then sensitivity analysis is used in this research to aid in the selection of the optimum inputs of the ANN and fuzzy c-mean (FCM) algorithm is used for daily load pattern clustering. Finally, ANN with a modified Levenberg-Marquardt (LM) learning algorithm are implemented for forecasting prices in Pennsylvania-New Jersey-Maryland (PJM) market. The forecasting results were compared with the previous works and showed that the results are reasonable and accurate. (author)

  4. Forecasting Natural Gas Prices Using Wavelets, Time Series, and Artificial Neural Networks.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Junghwan Jin

    Full Text Available Following the unconventional gas revolution, the forecasting of natural gas prices has become increasingly important because the association of these prices with those of crude oil has weakened. With this as motivation, we propose some modified hybrid models in which various combinations of the wavelet approximation, detail components, autoregressive integrated moving average, generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity, and artificial neural network models are employed to predict natural gas prices. We also emphasize the boundary problem in wavelet decomposition, and compare results that consider the boundary problem case with those that do not. The empirical results show that our suggested approach can handle the boundary problem, such that it facilitates the extraction of the appropriate forecasting results. The performance of the wavelet-hybrid approach was superior in all cases, whereas the application of detail components in the forecasting was only able to yield a small improvement in forecasting performance. Therefore, forecasting with only an approximation component would be acceptable, in consideration of forecasting efficiency.

  5. A New Neural Network Approach to Short Term Load Forecasting of Electrical Power Systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Farshid Keynia

    2011-03-01

    Full Text Available Short-term load forecast (STLF is an important operational function in both regulated power systems and deregulated open electricity markets. However, STLF is not easy to handle due to the nonlinear and random-like behaviors of system loads, weather conditions, and social and economic environment variations. Despite the research work performed in the area, more accurate and robust STLF methods are still needed due to the importance and complexity of STLF. In this paper, a new neural network approach for STLF is proposed. The proposed neural network has a novel learning algorithm based on a new modified harmony search technique. This learning algorithm can widely search the solution space in various directions, and it can also avoid the overfitting problem, trapping in local minima and dead bands. Based on this learning algorithm, the suggested neural network can efficiently extract the input/output mapping function of the forecast process leading to high STLF accuracy. The proposed approach is tested on two practical power systems and the results obtained are compared with the results of several other recently published STLF methods. These comparisons confirm the validity of the developed approach.

  6. APLIKASI MODEL ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORKS UNTUK STOCK FORECASTING DI PASAR MODAL INDONESIA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christian Herdinata

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available This research showed the applicat ion of model Art if icial Neural Networks (ANN orJaringan Syaraf Tiruan (JST at the f ield of monetary science, especially for the applicat ion off inancial forecast ing. ANN or JST was a new alternat ive for the applicat ion of f inancialforecast ing.The purpose of this research was to know whether the stock index instantaneouslyand fully ref lect historical informat ion, in Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX. The research usedcomparison between return of technical t rading rule based Art if icial Neural Networks (ANNmodel and return of buy & hold st rategy. The result showed that the weakness form ofef f icient market hypothesis was rejected in the Indonesian capital market . Expectat ion ofthis research was giving informat ion and securing the market perpet rators that st ill enabledto get abnormal of return by doing commerce in chnical through forecast ing of model Art ificial Neural Networks (ANN or Jaringan Syaraf Tiruan ( JST.

  7. Forecasting influenza-like illness dynamics for military populations using neural networks and social media.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Svitlana Volkova

    Full Text Available This work is the first to take advantage of recurrent neural networks to predict influenza-like illness (ILI dynamics from various linguistic signals extracted from social media data. Unlike other approaches that rely on timeseries analysis of historical ILI data and the state-of-the-art machine learning models, we build and evaluate the predictive power of neural network architectures based on Long Short Term Memory (LSTMs units capable of nowcasting (predicting in "real-time" and forecasting (predicting the future ILI dynamics in the 2011 - 2014 influenza seasons. To build our models we integrate information people post in social media e.g., topics, embeddings, word ngrams, stylistic patterns, and communication behavior using hashtags and mentions. We then quantitatively evaluate the predictive power of different social media signals and contrast the performance of the-state-of-the-art regression models with neural networks using a diverse set of evaluation metrics. Finally, we combine ILI and social media signals to build a joint neural network model for ILI dynamics prediction. Unlike the majority of the existing work, we specifically focus on developing models for local rather than national ILI surveillance, specifically for military rather than general populations in 26 U.S. and six international locations., and analyze how model performance depends on the amount of social media data available per location. Our approach demonstrates several advantages: (a Neural network architectures that rely on LSTM units trained on social media data yield the best performance compared to previously used regression models. (b Previously under-explored language and communication behavior features are more predictive of ILI dynamics than stylistic and topic signals expressed in social media. (c Neural network models learned exclusively from social media signals yield comparable or better performance to the models learned from ILI historical data, thus

  8. Forecasting influenza-like illness dynamics for military populations using neural networks and social media.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Volkova, Svitlana; Ayton, Ellyn; Porterfield, Katherine; Corley, Courtney D

    2017-01-01

    This work is the first to take advantage of recurrent neural networks to predict influenza-like illness (ILI) dynamics from various linguistic signals extracted from social media data. Unlike other approaches that rely on timeseries analysis of historical ILI data and the state-of-the-art machine learning models, we build and evaluate the predictive power of neural network architectures based on Long Short Term Memory (LSTMs) units capable of nowcasting (predicting in "real-time") and forecasting (predicting the future) ILI dynamics in the 2011 - 2014 influenza seasons. To build our models we integrate information people post in social media e.g., topics, embeddings, word ngrams, stylistic patterns, and communication behavior using hashtags and mentions. We then quantitatively evaluate the predictive power of different social media signals and contrast the performance of the-state-of-the-art regression models with neural networks using a diverse set of evaluation metrics. Finally, we combine ILI and social media signals to build a joint neural network model for ILI dynamics prediction. Unlike the majority of the existing work, we specifically focus on developing models for local rather than national ILI surveillance, specifically for military rather than general populations in 26 U.S. and six international locations., and analyze how model performance depends on the amount of social media data available per location. Our approach demonstrates several advantages: (a) Neural network architectures that rely on LSTM units trained on social media data yield the best performance compared to previously used regression models. (b) Previously under-explored language and communication behavior features are more predictive of ILI dynamics than stylistic and topic signals expressed in social media. (c) Neural network models learned exclusively from social media signals yield comparable or better performance to the models learned from ILI historical data, thus, signals from

  9. Development of distributed topographical forecasting model for wind resource assessment using artificial neural networks

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Narayana, P.B. [Green Life Energy Solutions LLP, Secunderabad (India); Rao, S.S. [National Institute of Technology. Dept. of Mechanical Engineering, Warangal (India); Reddy, K.H. [JNT Univ.. Dept. of Mechanical Engineering, Anantapur (India)

    2012-07-01

    Economics of wind power projects largely depend on the availability of wind power density. Wind resource assessment is a study estimating wind speeds and wind power densities in the region under consideration. The accuracy and reliability of data sets comprising of wind speeds and wind power densities at different heights per topographic region characterized by elevation or mean sea level, is important for wind power projects. Indian Wind Resource Assessment program conducted in 80's consisted of wind data measured by monitoring stations at different topographies in order to measure wind power density values at 25 and 50 meters above the ground level. In this paper, an attempt has been made to assess wind resource at a given location using artificial neural networks. Existing wind resource data has been used to train the neural networks. Location topography (characterized by longitude, latitude and mean sea level), air density, mean annual wind speed (MAWS) are used as inputs to the neural network. Mean annual wind power density (MAWPD) in watt/m{sup 2} is predicted for a new topographic location. Simple back propagation based neural network has been found to be sufficient for predicting these values with suitable accuracy. This model is closely linked to the problem of wind energy forecasting considering the variations of specific atmospheric variables with time horizons. This model will help the wind farm developers to have an initial estimation of the wind energy potential at a particular topography. (Author)

  10. Modeling and Computing of Stock Index Forecasting Based on Neural Network and Markov Chain

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dai, Yonghui; Han, Dongmei; Dai, Weihui

    2014-01-01

    The stock index reflects the fluctuation of the stock market. For a long time, there have been a lot of researches on the forecast of stock index. However, the traditional method is limited to achieving an ideal precision in the dynamic market due to the influences of many factors such as the economic situation, policy changes, and emergency events. Therefore, the approach based on adaptive modeling and conditional probability transfer causes the new attention of researchers. This paper presents a new forecast method by the combination of improved back-propagation (BP) neural network and Markov chain, as well as its modeling and computing technology. This method includes initial forecasting by improved BP neural network, division of Markov state region, computing of the state transition probability matrix, and the prediction adjustment. Results of the empirical study show that this method can achieve high accuracy in the stock index prediction, and it could provide a good reference for the investment in stock market. PMID:24782659

  11. Modeling and Computing of Stock Index Forecasting Based on Neural Network and Markov Chain

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yonghui Dai

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The stock index reflects the fluctuation of the stock market. For a long time, there have been a lot of researches on the forecast of stock index. However, the traditional method is limited to achieving an ideal precision in the dynamic market due to the influences of many factors such as the economic situation, policy changes, and emergency events. Therefore, the approach based on adaptive modeling and conditional probability transfer causes the new attention of researchers. This paper presents a new forecast method by the combination of improved back-propagation (BP neural network and Markov chain, as well as its modeling and computing technology. This method includes initial forecasting by improved BP neural network, division of Markov state region, computing of the state transition probability matrix, and the prediction adjustment. Results of the empirical study show that this method can achieve high accuracy in the stock index prediction, and it could provide a good reference for the investment in stock market.

  12. Hybrid Power Forecasting Model for Photovoltaic Plants Based on Neural Network with Air Quality Index

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Idris Khan

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available High concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere has increased dependency on photovoltaic (PV power, but its random nature poses a challenge for system operators to precisely predict and forecast PV power. The conventional forecasting methods were accurate for clean weather. But when the PV plants worked under heavy haze, the radiation is negatively impacted and thus reducing PV power; therefore, to deal with haze weather, Air Quality Index (AQI is introduced as a parameter to predict PV power. AQI, which is an indication of how polluted the air is, has been known to have a strong correlation with power generated by the PV panels. In this paper, a hybrid method based on the model of conventional back propagation (BP neural network for clear weather and BP AQI model for haze weather is used to forecast PV power with conventional parameters like temperature, wind speed, humidity, solar radiation, and an extra parameter of AQI as input. The results show that the proposed method has less error under haze condition as compared to conventional model of neural network.

  13. A fuzzy neural network model to forecast the percent cloud coverage and cloud top temperature maps

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Y. Tulunay

    2008-12-01

    Full Text Available Atmospheric processes are highly nonlinear. A small group at the METU in Ankara has been working on a fuzzy data driven generic model of nonlinear processes. The model developed is called the Middle East Technical University Fuzzy Neural Network Model (METU-FNN-M. The METU-FNN-M consists of a Fuzzy Inference System (METU-FIS, a data driven Neural Network module (METU-FNN of one hidden layer and several neurons, and a mapping module, which employs the Bezier Surface Mapping technique. In this paper, the percent cloud coverage (%CC and cloud top temperatures (CTT are forecast one month ahead of time at 96 grid locations. The probable influence of cosmic rays and sunspot numbers on cloudiness is considered by using the METU-FNN-M.

  14. Multiple Time Series Forecasting Using Quasi-Randomized Functional Link Neural Networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Thierry Moudiki

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available We are interested in obtaining forecasts for multiple time series, by taking into account the potential nonlinear relationships between their observations. For this purpose, we use a specific type of regression model on an augmented dataset of lagged time series. Our model is inspired by dynamic regression models (Pankratz 2012, with the response variable’s lags included as predictors, and is known as Random Vector Functional Link (RVFL neural networks. The RVFL neural networks have been successfully applied in the past, to solving regression and classification problems. The novelty of our approach is to apply an RVFL model to multivariate time series, under two separate regularization constraints on the regression parameters.

  15. Annual electricity consumption forecasting by neural network in high energy consuming industrial sectors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Azadeh, A.; Ghaderi, S.F.; Sohrabkhani, S.

    2008-01-01

    This paper presents an artificial neural network (ANN) approach for annual electricity consumption in high energy consumption industrial sectors. Chemicals, basic metals and non-metal minerals industries are defined as high energy consuming industries. It is claimed that, due to high fluctuations of energy consumption in high energy consumption industries, conventional regression models do not forecast energy consumption correctly and precisely. Although ANNs have been typically used to forecast short term consumptions, this paper shows that it is a more precise approach to forecast annual consumption in such industries. Furthermore, the ANN approach based on a supervised multi-layer perceptron (MLP) is used to show it can estimate the annual consumption with less error. Actual data from high energy consuming (intensive) industries in Iran from 1979 to 2003 is used to illustrate the applicability of the ANN approach. This study shows the advantage of the ANN approach through analysis of variance (ANOVA). Furthermore, the ANN forecast is compared with actual data and the conventional regression model through ANOVA to show its superiority. This is the first study to present an algorithm based on the ANN and ANOVA for forecasting long term electricity consumption in high energy consuming industries

  16. Day-ahead deregulated electricity market price forecasting using neural network input featured by DCT

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anbazhagan, S.; Kumarappan, N.

    2014-01-01

    Highlights: • We presented DCT input featured FFNN model for forecasting in Spain market. • The key factors impacting electricity price forecasting are historical prices. • Past 42 days were trained and the next 7 days were forecasted. • The proposed approach has a simple and better NN structure. • The DCT-FFNN mode is effective and less computation time than the recent models. - Abstract: In a deregulated market, a number of factors determined the outcome of electricity price and displays a perplexed and maverick fluctuation. Both power producers and consumers needs single compact and robust price forecasting tool in order to maximize their profits and utilities. In order to achieve the helter–skelter kind of electricity price, one dimensional discrete cosine transforms (DCT) input featured feed-forward neural network (FFNN) is modeled (DCT-FFNN). The proposed FFNN is a single compact and robust architecture (without hybridizing the various hard and soft computing models). It has been predicted that the DCT-FFNN model is close to the state of the art can be achieved with less computation time. The proposed DCT-FFNN approach is compared with 17 other recent approaches to estimate the market clearing prices of mainland Spain. Finally, the accuracy of the price forecasting is also applied to the electricity market of New York in year 2010 that shows the effectiveness of the proposed DCT-FFNN approach

  17. Dynamic neural network modeling of HF radar current maps for forecasting oil spill trajectories

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tissot, P.; Perez, J.; Kelly, F.J.; Bonner, J.; Michaud, P.

    2001-01-01

    This paper examined the concept of dynamic neural network (NN) modeling for short-term forecasts of coastal high-frequency (HF) radar current maps offshore of Galveston Texas. HF radar technology is emerging as a viable and affordable way to measure surface currents in real time and the number of users applying the technology is increasing. A 25 megahertz, two site, Seasonde HF radar system was used to map ocean and bay surface currents along the coast of Texas where wind and river discharge create complex and rapidly changing current patters that override the weaker tidal flow component. The HF radar system is particularly useful in this type of setting because its mobility makes it a good marine spill response tool that could provide hourly current maps. This capability helps improve deployment of response resources. In addition, the NN model recently developed by the Conrad Blucher Institute can be used to forecast water levels during storm events. Forecasted currents are based on time series of current vectors from HF radar plus wind speed, wind direction, and water levels, as well as tidal forecasts. The dynamic NN model was tested to evaluate its performance and the results were compared with a baseline model which assumes the currents do not change from the time of the forecast up to the forecasted time. The NN model showed improvements over the baseline model for forecasting time equal or greater than 3 hours, but the difference was relatively small. The test demonstrated the ability of the dynamic NN model to link meteorological forcing functions with HF radar current maps. Development of the dynamic NN modeling is still ongoing. 18 refs., 1 tab., 5 figs

  18. LOAD FORECASTING FOR POWER SYSTEM PLANNING AND OPERATION USING ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORK AT AL BATINAH REGION OMAN

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    HUSSEIN A. ABDULQADER

    2012-08-01

    Full Text Available Load forecasting is essential part for the power system planning and operation. In this paper the modeling and design of artificial neural network for load forecasting is carried out in a particular region of Oman. Neural network approach helps to reduce the problem associated with conventional method and has the advantage of learning directly from the historical data. The neural network here uses data such as past load; weather information like humidity and temperatures. Once the neural network is trained for the past set of data it can give a prediction of future load. This reduces the capital investment reducing the equipments to be installed. The actual data are taken from the Mazoon Electrical Company, Oman. The data of load for the year 2007, 2008 and 2009 are collected for a particular region called Al Batinah in Oman and trained using neural networks to forecast the future. The main objective is to forecast the amount of electricity needed for better load distribution in the areas of this region in Oman. The load forecasting is done for the year 2010 and is validated for the accuracy.

  19. ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORK AND WAVELET DECOMPOSITION IN THE FORECAST OF GLOBAL HORIZONTAL SOLAR RADIATION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Luiz Albino Teixeira Júnior

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available This paper proposes a method (denoted by WD-ANN that combines the Artificial Neural Networks (ANN and the Wavelet Decomposition (WD to generate short-term global horizontal solar radiation forecasting, which is an essential information for evaluating the electrical power generated from the conversion of solar energy into electrical energy. The WD-ANN method consists of two basic steps: firstly, it is performed the decomposition of level p of the time series of interest, generating p + 1 wavelet orthonormal components; secondly, the p + 1 wavelet orthonormal components (generated in the step 1 are inserted simultaneously into an ANN in order to generate short-term forecasting. The results showed that the proposed method (WD-ANN improved substantially the performance over the (traditional ANN method.

  20. A hybrid ARIMA and neural network model applied to forecast catch volumes of Selar crumenophthalmus

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aquino, Ronald L.; Alcantara, Nialle Loui Mar T.; Addawe, Rizavel C.

    2017-11-01

    The Selar crumenophthalmus with the English name big-eyed scad fish, locally known as matang-baka, is one of the fishes commonly caught along the waters of La Union, Philippines. The study deals with the forecasting of catch volumes of big-eyed scad fish for commercial consumption. The data used are quarterly caught volumes of big-eyed scad fish from 2002 to first quarter of 2017. This actual data is available from the open stat database published by the Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA)whose task is to collect, compiles, analyzes and publish information concerning different aspects of the Philippine setting. Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) models, Artificial Neural Network (ANN) model and the Hybrid model consisting of ARIMA and ANN were developed to forecast catch volumes of big-eyed scad fish. Statistical errors such as Mean Absolute Errors (MAE) and Root Mean Square Errors (RMSE) were computed and compared to choose the most suitable model for forecasting the catch volume for the next few quarters. A comparison of the results of each model and corresponding statistical errors reveals that the hybrid model, ARIMA-ANN (2,1,2)(6:3:1), is the most suitable model to forecast the catch volumes of the big-eyed scad fish for the next few quarters.

  1. Incorporating Wind Power Forecast Uncertainties Into Stochastic Unit Commitment Using Neural Network-Based Prediction Intervals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quan, Hao; Srinivasan, Dipti; Khosravi, Abbas

    2015-09-01

    Penetration of renewable energy resources, such as wind and solar power, into power systems significantly increases the uncertainties on system operation, stability, and reliability in smart grids. In this paper, the nonparametric neural network-based prediction intervals (PIs) are implemented for forecast uncertainty quantification. Instead of a single level PI, wind power forecast uncertainties are represented in a list of PIs. These PIs are then decomposed into quantiles of wind power. A new scenario generation method is proposed to handle wind power forecast uncertainties. For each hour, an empirical cumulative distribution function (ECDF) is fitted to these quantile points. The Monte Carlo simulation method is used to generate scenarios from the ECDF. Then the wind power scenarios are incorporated into a stochastic security-constrained unit commitment (SCUC) model. The heuristic genetic algorithm is utilized to solve the stochastic SCUC problem. Five deterministic and four stochastic case studies incorporated with interval forecasts of wind power are implemented. The results of these cases are presented and discussed together. Generation costs, and the scheduled and real-time economic dispatch reserves of different unit commitment strategies are compared. The experimental results show that the stochastic model is more robust than deterministic ones and, thus, decreases the risk in system operations of smart grids.

  2. Short-term load and wind power forecasting using neural network-based prediction intervals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quan, Hao; Srinivasan, Dipti; Khosravi, Abbas

    2014-02-01

    Electrical power systems are evolving from today's centralized bulk systems to more decentralized systems. Penetrations of renewable energies, such as wind and solar power, significantly increase the level of uncertainty in power systems. Accurate load forecasting becomes more complex, yet more important for management of power systems. Traditional methods for generating point forecasts of load demands cannot properly handle uncertainties in system operations. To quantify potential uncertainties associated with forecasts, this paper implements a neural network (NN)-based method for the construction of prediction intervals (PIs). A newly introduced method, called lower upper bound estimation (LUBE), is applied and extended to develop PIs using NN models. A new problem formulation is proposed, which translates the primary multiobjective problem into a constrained single-objective problem. Compared with the cost function, this new formulation is closer to the primary problem and has fewer parameters. Particle swarm optimization (PSO) integrated with the mutation operator is used to solve the problem. Electrical demands from Singapore and New South Wales (Australia), as well as wind power generation from Capital Wind Farm, are used to validate the PSO-based LUBE method. Comparative results show that the proposed method can construct higher quality PIs for load and wind power generation forecasts in a short time.

  3. Neural networks-based operational prototype for flash flood forecasting: application to Liane flash floods (France

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bertin Dominique

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The Liane River is a small costal river, famous for its floods, which can affect the city of Boulogne-sur-Mer. Due to the complexity of land cover and hydrologic processes, a black-box non-linear modelling was chosen using neural networks. The multilayer perceptron model, known for its property of universal approximation is thus chosen. Four models were designed, each one for one forecasting horizon using rainfall forecasts: 24h, 12h, 6h, 3h. The desired output of the model is original: it represents the maximal value of the water level respectively 24h, 12h, 6h, 3h ahead. Working with best forecasts of rain (the observed ones during the event in the past, on the major flood of the database in test set, the model provides excellent forecasts. Nash criteria calculated for the four lead times are 0.98 (3h, 0.97 (6h, 0.91 (12h, 0.89 (24h. Designed models were thus estimated as efficient enough to be implemented in a specific tool devoted to real time operational use. The software tool is described hereafter: designed in Java, it presents a friendly interface allowing applying various scenarios of future rainfalls, and a graphical visualization of the predicted maximum water levels and their associated real time observed values.

  4. Day-ahead price forecasting of electricity markets by a new feature selection algorithm and cascaded neural network technique

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Amjady, Nima; Keynia, Farshid

    2009-01-01

    With the introduction of restructuring into the electric power industry, the price of electricity has become the focus of all activities in the power market. Electricity price forecast is key information for electricity market managers and participants. However, electricity price is a complex signal due to its non-linear, non-stationary, and time variant behavior. In spite of performed research in this area, more accurate and robust price forecast methods are still required. In this paper, a new forecast strategy is proposed for day-ahead price forecasting of electricity markets. Our forecast strategy is composed of a new two stage feature selection technique and cascaded neural networks. The proposed feature selection technique comprises modified Relief algorithm for the first stage and correlation analysis for the second stage. The modified Relief algorithm selects candidate inputs with maximum relevancy with the target variable. Then among the selected candidates, the correlation analysis eliminates redundant inputs. Selected features by the two stage feature selection technique are used for the forecast engine, which is composed of 24 consecutive forecasters. Each of these 24 forecasters is a neural network allocated to predict the price of 1 h of the next day. The whole proposed forecast strategy is examined on the Spanish and Australia's National Electricity Markets Management Company (NEMMCO) and compared with some of the most recent price forecast methods.

  5. Forecasting Urban Air Quality via a Back-Propagation Neural Network and a Selection Sample Rule

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yonghong Liu

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, based on a sample selection rule and a Back Propagation (BP neural network, a new model of forecasting daily SO2, NO2, and PM10 concentration in seven sites of Guangzhou was developed using data from January 2006 to April 2012. A meteorological similarity principle was applied in the development of the sample selection rule. The key meteorological factors influencing SO2, NO2, and PM10 daily concentrations as well as weight matrices and threshold matrices were determined. A basic model was then developed based on the improved BP neural network. Improving the basic model, identification of the factor variation consistency was added in the rule, and seven sets of sensitivity experiments in one of the seven sites were conducted to obtain the selected model. A comparison of the basic model from May 2011 to April 2012 in one site showed that the selected model for PM10 displayed better forecasting performance, with Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE values decreasing by 4% and R2 values increasing from 0.53 to 0.68. Evaluations conducted at the six other sites revealed a similar performance. On the whole, the analysis showed that the models presented here could provide local authorities with reliable and precise predictions and alarms about air quality if used at an operational scale.

  6. Application of Entropy Ensemble Filter in Neural Network Forecasts of Tropical Pacific Sea Surface Temperatures

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hossein Foroozand

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available Recently, the Entropy Ensemble Filter (EEF method was proposed to mitigate the computational cost of the Bootstrap AGGregatING (bagging method. This method uses the most informative training data sets in the model ensemble rather than all ensemble members created by the conventional bagging. In this study, we evaluate, for the first time, the application of the EEF method in Neural Network (NN modeling of El Nino-southern oscillation. Specifically, we forecast the first five principal components (PCs of sea surface temperature monthly anomaly fields over tropical Pacific, at different lead times (from 3 to 15 months, with a three-month increment for the period 1979–2017. We apply the EEF method in a multiple-linear regression (MLR model and two NN models, one using Bayesian regularization and one Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm for training, and evaluate their performance and computational efficiency relative to the same models with conventional bagging. All models perform equally well at the lead time of 3 and 6 months, while at higher lead times, the MLR model’s skill deteriorates faster than the nonlinear models. The neural network models with both bagging methods produce equally successful forecasts with the same computational efficiency. It remains to be shown whether this finding is sensitive to the dataset size.

  7. Real-time flood forecasts & risk assessment using a possibility-theory based fuzzy neural network

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khan, U. T.

    2016-12-01

    Globally floods are one of the most devastating natural disasters and improved flood forecasting methods are essential for better flood protection in urban areas. Given the availability of high resolution real-time datasets for flood variables (e.g. streamflow and precipitation) in many urban areas, data-driven models have been effectively used to predict peak flow rates in river; however, the selection of input parameters for these types of models is often subjective. Additionally, the inherit uncertainty associated with data models along with errors in extreme event observations means that uncertainty quantification is essential. Addressing these concerns will enable improved flood forecasting methods and provide more accurate flood risk assessments. In this research, a new type of data-driven model, a quasi-real-time updating fuzzy neural network is developed to predict peak flow rates in urban riverine watersheds. A possibility-to-probability transformation is first used to convert observed data into fuzzy numbers. A possibility theory based training regime is them used to construct the fuzzy parameters and the outputs. A new entropy-based optimisation criterion is used to train the network. Two existing methods to select the optimum input parameters are modified to account for fuzzy number inputs, and compared. These methods are: Entropy-Wavelet-based Artificial Neural Network (EWANN) and Combined Neural Pathway Strength Analysis (CNPSA). Finally, an automated algorithm design to select the optimum structure of the neural network is implemented. The overall impact of each component of training this network is to replace the traditional ad hoc network configuration methods, with one based on objective criteria. Ten years of data from the Bow River in Calgary, Canada (including two major floods in 2005 and 2013) are used to calibrate and test the network. The EWANN method selected lagged peak flow as a candidate input, whereas the CNPSA method selected lagged

  8. Short term wind speed forecasting in La Venta, Oaxaca, Mexico, using artificial neural networks

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cadenas, Erasmo [Facultad de Ingenieria Mecanica, Universidad Michoacana de San Nicolas de Hidalgo, Santiago Tapia No. 403, Centro, 5000, Mor., Mich. (Mexico); Rivera, Wilfrido [Centro de Ivestigacion en Energia, Universidad Nacional Autonoma de Mexico, Apartado Postal 34, Temixco 62580, Morelos (Mexico)

    2009-01-15

    In this paper the short term wind speed forecasting in the region of La Venta, Oaxaca, Mexico, applying the technique of artificial neural network (ANN) to the hourly time series representative of the site is presented. The data were collected by the Comision Federal de Electricidad (CFE) during 7 years through a network of measurement stations located in the place of interest. Diverse configurations of ANN were generated and compared through error measures, guaranteeing the performance and accuracy of the chosen models. First a model with three layers and seven neurons was chosen, according to the recommendations of diverse authors, nevertheless, the results were not sufficiently satisfactory so other three models were developed, consisting of three layers and six neurons, two layers and four neurons and two layers and three neurons. The simplest model of two layers, with two input neurons and one output neuron, was the best for the short term wind speed forecasting, with mean squared error and mean absolute error values of 0.0016 and 0.0399, respectively. The developed model for short term wind speed forecasting showed a very good accuracy to be used by the Electric Utility Control Centre in Oaxaca for the energy supply. (author)

  9. Artificial Neural Network Models for Long Lead Streamflow Forecasts using Climate Information

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kumar, J.; Devineni, N.

    2007-12-01

    Information on season ahead stream flow forecasts is very beneficial for the operation and management of water supply systems. Daily streamflow conditions at any particular reservoir primarily depend on atmospheric and land surface conditions including the soil moisture and snow pack. On the other hand recent studies suggest that developing long lead streamflow forecasts (3 months ahead) typically depends on exogenous climatic conditions particularly Sea Surface Temperature conditions (SST) in the tropical oceans. Examples of some oceanic variables are El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). Identification of such conditions that influence the moisture transport into a given basin poses many challenges given the nonlinear dependency between the predictors (SST) and predictand (stream flows). In this study, we apply both linear and nonlinear dependency measures to identify the predictors that influence the winter flows into the Neuse basin. The predictor identification approach here adopted uses simple correlation coefficients to spearman rank correlation measures for detecting nonlinear dependency. All these dependency measures are employed with a lag 3 time series of the high flow season (January - February - March) using 75 years (1928-2002) of stream flows recorded in to the Falls Lake, Neuse River Basin. Developing streamflow forecasts contingent on these exogenous predictors will play an important role towards improved water supply planning and management. Recently, the soft computing techniques, such as artificial neural networks (ANNs) have provided an alternative method to solve complex problems efficiently. ANNs are data driven models which trains on the examples given to it. The ANNs functions as universal approximators and are non linear in nature. This paper presents a study aiming towards using climatic predictors for 3 month lead time streamflow forecast. ANN models representing the physical process of the system are

  10. Short-Term Forecasting of Electric Loads Using Nonlinear Autoregressive Artificial Neural Networks with Exogenous Vector Inputs

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jaime Buitrago

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Short-term load forecasting is crucial for the operations planning of an electrical grid. Forecasting the next 24 h of electrical load in a grid allows operators to plan and optimize their resources. The purpose of this study is to develop a more accurate short-term load forecasting method utilizing non-linear autoregressive artificial neural networks (ANN with exogenous multi-variable input (NARX. The proposed implementation of the network is new: the neural network is trained in open-loop using actual load and weather data, and then, the network is placed in closed-loop to generate a forecast using the predicted load as the feedback input. Unlike the existing short-term load forecasting methods using ANNs, the proposed method uses its own output as the input in order to improve the accuracy, thus effectively implementing a feedback loop for the load, making it less dependent on external data. Using the proposed framework, mean absolute percent errors in the forecast in the order of 1% have been achieved, which is a 30% improvement on the average error using feedforward ANNs, ARMAX and state space methods, which can result in large savings by avoiding commissioning of unnecessary power plants. The New England electrical load data are used to train and validate the forecast prediction.

  11. Optimization of an artificial neural network dedicated to the multivariate forecasting of daily global radiation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Voyant, Cyril; Muselli, Marc; Paoli, Christophe; Nivet, Marie-Laure

    2011-01-01

    This paper presents an application of Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) to predict daily solar radiation. We look at the Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP) network which is the most used of ANNs architectures. In previous studies, we have developed an ad-hoc time series preprocessing and optimized a MLP with endogenous inputs in order to forecast the solar radiation on a horizontal surface. We propose in this paper to study the contribution of exogenous meteorological data (multivariate method) as time series to our optimized MLP and compare with different forecasting methods: a naive forecaster (persistence), ARIMA reference predictor, an ANN with preprocessing using only endogenous inputs (univariate method) and an ANN with preprocessing using endogenous and exogenous inputs. The use of exogenous data generates an nRMSE decrease between 0.5% and 1% for two stations during 2006 and 2007 (Corsica Island, France). The prediction results are also relevant for the concrete case of a tilted PV wall (1.175 kWp). The addition of endogenous and exogenous data allows a 1% decrease of the nRMSE over a 6 months-cloudy period for the power production. While the use of exogenous data shows an interest in winter, endogenous data as inputs on a preprocessed ANN seem sufficient in summer. -- Research highlights: → Use of exogenous data as ANN inputs to forecast horizontal daily global irradiation data. → New methodology allowing to choice the adequate exogenous data - a systematic method comparing endogenous and exogenous data. → Different referenced mathematical predictors allows to conclude about the pertinence of the proposed methodology.

  12. Short-Term Wind Speed Forecasting Using Decomposition-Based Neural Networks Combining Abnormal Detection Method

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xuejun Chen

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available As one of the most promising renewable resources in electricity generation, wind energy is acknowledged for its significant environmental contributions and economic competitiveness. Because wind fluctuates with strong variation, it is quite difficult to describe the characteristics of wind or to estimate the power output that will be injected into the grid. In particular, short-term wind speed forecasting, an essential support for the regulatory actions and short-term load dispatching planning during the operation of wind farms, is currently regarded as one of the most difficult problems to be solved. This paper contributes to short-term wind speed forecasting by developing two three-stage hybrid approaches; both are combinations of the five-three-Hanning (53H weighted average smoothing method, ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD algorithm, and nonlinear autoregressive (NAR neural networks. The chosen datasets are ten-minute wind speed observations, including twelve samples, and our simulation indicates that the proposed methods perform much better than the traditional ones when addressing short-term wind speed forecasting problems.

  13. Forecasting of Energy Expenditure of Induced Seismicity with Use of Artificial Neural Network

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cichy, Tomasz; Banka, Piotr

    2017-12-01

    Coal mining in many Polish mines in the Upper Silesian Coal Basin is accompanied by high levels of induced seismicity. In mining plants, the methods of shock monitoring are improved, allowing for more accurate localization of the occurring phenomena and determining their seismic energy. Equally important is the development of ways of forecasting seismic hazards that may occur while implementing mine design projects. These methods, depending on the length of time for which the forecasts are made, can be divided into: longterm, medium-term, short-term and so-called alarm. Long-term forecasts are particularly useful for the design of seam exploitations. The paper presents a method of predicting changes in energy expenditure of shock using a properly trained artificial neural network. This method allows to make long-term forecasts at the stage of the mine’s exploitation design, thus enabling the mining work plans to be reviewed to minimize the potential for tremors. The information given at the input of the neural network is indicative of the specific energy changes of the elastic deformation occurring in the selected, thick, resistant rock layers (tremor-prone layers). Energy changes, taking place in one or more tremor-prone layers are considered. These indicators describe only the specific energy changes of the elastic deformation accumulating in the rock as a consequence of the mining operation, but does not determine the amount of energy released during the destruction of a given volume of rock. In this process, the potential energy of elastic strain transforms into other, non-measurable energy types, including the seismic energy of recorded tremors. In this way, potential energy changes affect the observed induced seismicity. The parameters used are characterized by increases (declines) of specific energy with separation to occur before the hypothetical destruction of the rock and after it. Additional input information is an index characterizing the rate of

  14. A Hybrid Neural Network Model for Sales Forecasting Based on ARIMA and Search Popularity of Article Titles.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Omar, Hani; Hoang, Van Hai; Liu, Duen-Ren

    2016-01-01

    Enhancing sales and operations planning through forecasting analysis and business intelligence is demanded in many industries and enterprises. Publishing industries usually pick attractive titles and headlines for their stories to increase sales, since popular article titles and headlines can attract readers to buy magazines. In this paper, information retrieval techniques are adopted to extract words from article titles. The popularity measures of article titles are then analyzed by using the search indexes obtained from Google search engine. Backpropagation Neural Networks (BPNNs) have successfully been used to develop prediction models for sales forecasting. In this study, we propose a novel hybrid neural network model for sales forecasting based on the prediction result of time series forecasting and the popularity of article titles. The proposed model uses the historical sales data, popularity of article titles, and the prediction result of a time series, Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) forecasting method to learn a BPNN-based forecasting model. Our proposed forecasting model is experimentally evaluated by comparing with conventional sales prediction techniques. The experimental result shows that our proposed forecasting method outperforms conventional techniques which do not consider the popularity of title words.

  15. A Hybrid Neural Network Model for Sales Forecasting Based on ARIMA and Search Popularity of Article Titles

    Science.gov (United States)

    Omar, Hani; Hoang, Van Hai; Liu, Duen-Ren

    2016-01-01

    Enhancing sales and operations planning through forecasting analysis and business intelligence is demanded in many industries and enterprises. Publishing industries usually pick attractive titles and headlines for their stories to increase sales, since popular article titles and headlines can attract readers to buy magazines. In this paper, information retrieval techniques are adopted to extract words from article titles. The popularity measures of article titles are then analyzed by using the search indexes obtained from Google search engine. Backpropagation Neural Networks (BPNNs) have successfully been used to develop prediction models for sales forecasting. In this study, we propose a novel hybrid neural network model for sales forecasting based on the prediction result of time series forecasting and the popularity of article titles. The proposed model uses the historical sales data, popularity of article titles, and the prediction result of a time series, Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) forecasting method to learn a BPNN-based forecasting model. Our proposed forecasting model is experimentally evaluated by comparing with conventional sales prediction techniques. The experimental result shows that our proposed forecasting method outperforms conventional techniques which do not consider the popularity of title words. PMID:27313605

  16. Estimation of clearness index using neural network with meteorological forecast; Kisho yoho wo nyuryoku toshita neural network ni yoru seiten shisu no yosoku

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nishimura, S; Kenmoku, Y; Sakakibara, T [Toyohashi University of Technology, Aichi (Japan); Nakagawa, S [Maizuru National College of Technology, Kyoto (Japan); Kawamoto, T [Shizuoka University, Shizuoka (Japan)

    1997-11-25

    Discussions were given on estimation of clearness index in order to operate stably a solar energy utilizing system. All-sky insolation amount varies not only by change in the climate, but also seasonal change in the sun`s altitude. Therefore, a clearness index (ratio of all-sky insolation to out-of-atmosphere insolation) was used. The larger the value, the higher the solar ray permeability. The all-sky insolation amount is a measured value, while the out-of-atmosphere insolation amount is a calculated value. Although the clearness index may be roughly estimated by weather forecast, the clearness index varies largely even on the same weather forecast, especially for cloudy days, if a weather forecast actually having error is used. Therefore, discussions were given on estimation of the clearness index by using a neural network which uses meteorological information such as air temperatures and precipitation probabilities as inputs. Using multiple number of meteorological forecast information simultaneously has reduced the average square error to 49% of that using only the weather forecast. The estimation accuracy depends on the accuracy of meteorological forecast, but using multiple number of forecast information can improve the accuracy. 6 refs., 7 figs., 1 tab.

  17. Short-Term Solar Irradiance Forecasting Model Based on Artificial Neural Network Using Statistical Feature Parameters

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hongshan Zhao

    2012-05-01

    Full Text Available Short-term solar irradiance forecasting (STSIF is of great significance for the optimal operation and power predication of grid-connected photovoltaic (PV plants. However, STSIF is very complex to handle due to the random and nonlinear characteristics of solar irradiance under changeable weather conditions. Artificial Neural Network (ANN is suitable for STSIF modeling and many research works on this topic are presented, but the conciseness and robustness of the existing models still need to be improved. After discussing the relation between weather variations and irradiance, the characteristics of the statistical feature parameters of irradiance under different weather conditions are figured out. A novel ANN model using statistical feature parameters (ANN-SFP for STSIF is proposed in this paper. The input vector is reconstructed with several statistical feature parameters of irradiance and ambient temperature. Thus sufficient information can be effectively extracted from relatively few inputs and the model complexity is reduced. The model structure is determined by cross-validation (CV, and the Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm (LMA is used for the network training. Simulations are carried out to validate and compare the proposed model with the conventional ANN model using historical data series (ANN-HDS, and the results indicated that the forecast accuracy is obviously improved under variable weather conditions.

  18. USING ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORKS (ANNs FOR SEDIMENT LOAD FORECASTING OF TALKHEROOD RIVER MOUTH

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vahid Nourani

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available Without a doubt the carried sediment load by a river is the most important factor in creating and formation of the related Delta in the river mouth. Therefore, accurate forecasting of the river sediment load can play a significant role for study on the river Delta. However considering the complexity and non-linearity of the phenomenon, the classic experimental or physical-based approaches usually could not handle the problem so well. In this paper, Artificial Neural Network (ANN as a non-linear black box interpolator tool is used for modeling suspended sediment load which discharges to the Talkherood river mouth, located in northern west Iran. For this purpose, observed time series of water discharge at current and previous time steps are used as the model input neurons and the model output neuron will be the forecasted sediment load at the current time step. In this way, various schemes of the ANN approach are examined in order to achieve the best network as well as the best architecture of the model. The obtained results are also compared with the results of two other classic methods (i.e., linear regression and rating curve methods in order to approve the efficiency and ability of the proposed method.

  19. Robustly Fitting and Forecasting Dynamical Data With Electromagnetically Coupled Artificial Neural Network: A Data Compression Method.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Ziyin; Liu, Mandan; Cheng, Yicheng; Wang, Rubin

    2017-06-01

    In this paper, a dynamical recurrent artificial neural network (ANN) is proposed and studied. Inspired from a recent research in neuroscience, we introduced nonsynaptic coupling to form a dynamical component of the network. We mathematically proved that, with adequate neurons provided, this dynamical ANN model is capable of approximating any continuous dynamic system with an arbitrarily small error in a limited time interval. Its extreme concise Jacobian matrix makes the local stability easy to control. We designed this ANN for fitting and forecasting dynamic data and obtained satisfied results in simulation. The fitting performance is also compared with those of both the classic dynamic ANN and the state-of-the-art models. Sufficient trials and the statistical results indicated that our model is superior to those have been compared. Moreover, we proposed a robust approximation problem, which asking the ANN to approximate a cluster of input-output data pairs in large ranges and to forecast the output of the system under previously unseen input. Our model and learning scheme proposed in this paper have successfully solved this problem, and through this, the approximation becomes much more robust and adaptive to noise, perturbation, and low-order harmonic wave. This approach is actually an efficient method for compressing massive external data of a dynamic system into the weight of the ANN.

  20. Forecasting of Groundwater Level using Artificial Neural Network by incorporating river recharge and river bank infiltration

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nizar Shamsuddin Mohd Khairul

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Groundwater tables forecasting during implemented river bank infiltration (RBI method is important to identify adequate storage of groundwater aquifer for water supply purposes. This study illustrates the development and application of artificial neural networks (ANNs to predict groundwater tables in two vertical wells located in confined aquifer adjacent to the Langat River. ANN model was used in this study is based on the long period forecasting of daily groundwater tables. ANN models were carried out to predict groundwater tables for 1 day ahead at two different geological materials. The input to the ANN models consider of daily rainfall, river stage, water level, stream flow rate, temperature and groundwater level. Two different type of ANNs structure were used to predict the fluctuation of groundwater tables and compared the best forecasting values. The performance of different models structure of the ANN is used to identify the fluctuation of the groundwater table and provide acceptable predictions. Dynamics prediction and time series of the system can be implemented in two possible ways of modelling. The coefficient correlation (R, Mean Square Error (MSE, Root Mean Square Error (RMSE and coefficient determination (R2 were chosen as the selection criteria of the best model. The statistical values for DW1 are 0.8649, 0.0356, 0.01, and 0.748 respectively. While for DW2 the statistical values are 0.7392, 0.0781, 0.0139, and 0.546 respectively. Based on these results, it clearly shows that accurate predictions can be achieved with time series 1-day ahead of forecasting groundwater table and the interaction between river and aquifer can be examine. The findings of the study can be used to assist policy marker to manage groundwater resources by using RBI method.

  1. Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs for flood forecasting at Dongola Station in the River Nile, Sudan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sulafa Hag Elsafi

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available Heavy seasonal rains cause the River Nile in Sudan to overflow and flood the surroundings areas. The floods destroy houses, crops, roads, and basic infrastructure, resulting in the displacement of people. This study aimed to forecast the River Nile flow at Dongola Station in Sudan using an Artificial Neural Network (ANN as a modeling tool and validated the accuracy of the model against actual flow. The ANN model was formulated to simulate flows at a certain location in the river reach, based on flow at upstream locations. Different procedures were applied to predict flooding by the ANN. Readings from stations along the Blue Nile, White Nile, Main Nile, and River Atbara between 1965 and 2003 were used to predict the likelihood of flooding at Dongola Station. The analysis indicated that the ANN provides a reliable means of detecting the flood hazard in the River Nile.

  2. Application of Artificial Neural Network into the Water Level Modeling and Forecast

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marzenna Sztobryn

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available The dangerous sea and river water level increase does not only destroy the human lives, but also generate the severe flooding in coastal areas. The rapidly changes in the direction and velocity of wind and associated with them sea level changes could be the severe threat for navigation, especially on the fairways of small fishery harbors located in the river mouth. There is the area of activity of two external forcing: storm surges and flood wave. The aim of the work was the description of an application of Artificial Neural Network (ANN methodology into the water level forecast in the case study field in Swibno harbor located is located at 938.7 km of the Wisla River and at a distance of about 3 km up the mouth (Gulf of Gdansk - Baltic Sea.

  3. An Electricity Price Forecasting Model by Hybrid Structured Deep Neural Networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ping-Huan Kuo

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available Electricity price is a key influencer in the electricity market. Electricity market trades by each participant are based on electricity price. The electricity price adjusted with the change in supply and demand relationship can reflect the real value of electricity in the transaction process. However, for the power generating party, bidding strategy determines the level of profit, and the accurate prediction of electricity price could make it possible to determine a more accurate bidding price. This cannot only reduce transaction risk, but also seize opportunities in the electricity market. In order to effectively estimate electricity price, this paper proposes an electricity price forecasting system based on the combination of 2 deep neural networks, the Convolutional Neural Network (CNN and the Long Short Term Memory (LSTM. In order to compare the overall performance of each algorithm, the Mean Absolute Error (MAE and Root-Mean-Square error (RMSE evaluating measures were applied in the experiments of this paper. Experiment results show that compared with other traditional machine learning methods, the prediction performance of the estimating model proposed in this paper is proven to be the best. By combining the CNN and LSTM models, the feasibility and practicality of electricity price prediction is also confirmed in this paper.

  4. A simulated-based neural network algorithm for forecasting electrical energy consumption in Iran

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Azadeh, A.; Ghaderi, S.F.; Sohrabkhani, S.

    2008-01-01

    This study presents an integrated algorithm for forecasting monthly electrical energy consumption based on artificial neural network (ANN), computer simulation and design of experiments using stochastic procedures. First, an ANN approach is illustrated based on supervised multi-layer perceptron (MLP) network for the electrical consumption forecasting. The chosen model, therefore, can be compared to that of estimated by time series model. Computer simulation is developed to generate random variables for monthly electricity consumption. This is achieved to foresee the effects of probabilistic distribution on monthly electricity consumption. The simulated-based ANN model is then developed. Therefore, there are four treatments to be considered in analysis of variance (ANOVA), which are actual data, time series, ANN and simulated-based ANN. Furthermore, ANOVA is used to test the null hypothesis of the above four alternatives being statistically equal. If the null hypothesis is accepted, then the lowest mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) value is used to select the best model, otherwise the Duncan method (DMRT) of paired comparison is used to select the optimum model which could be time series, ANN or simulated-based ANN. In case of ties the lowest MAPE value is considered as the benchmark. The integrated algorithm has several unique features. First, it is flexible and identifies the best model based on the results of ANOVA and MAPE, whereas previous studies consider the best fitted ANN model based on MAPE or relative error results. Second, the proposed algorithm may identify conventional time series as the best model for future electricity consumption forecasting because of its dynamic structure, whereas previous studies assume that ANN always provide the best solutions and estimation. To show the applicability and superiority of the proposed algorithm, the monthly electricity consumption in Iran from March 1994 to February 2005 (131 months) is used and applied to

  5. Forecasting Method for Urban Rail Transit Ridership at Station Level Using Back Propagation Neural Network

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Junfang Li

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Direct forecasting method for Urban Rail Transit (URT ridership at the station level is not able to reflect nonlinear relationship between ridership and its predictors. Also, population is inappropriately expressed in this method since it is not uniformly distributed by area. In this paper, a new variable, population per distance band, is considered and a back propagation neural network (BPNN model which can reflect nonlinear relationship between ridership and its predictors is proposed to forecast ridership. Key predictors are obtained through partial correlation analysis. The performance of the proposed model is compared with three other benchmark models, which are linear model with population per distance band, BPNN model with total population, and linear model with total population, using four measures of effectiveness (MOEs, maximum relative error (MRE, smallest relative error (SRE, average relative error (ARE, and mean square root of relative error (MSRRE. Also, another model for contribution rate of population per distance band to ridership is formulated based on the BPNN model with nonpopulation variables fixed. Case studies with Japanese data show that BPNN model with population per distance band outperforms other three models and the contribution rate of population within special distance band to ridership calculated through the contribution rate model is 70%~92.9% close to actual statistical value. The result confirms the effectiveness of models proposed in this paper.

  6. Forecasting Electricity Demand in Thailand with an Artificial Neural Network Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Karin Kandananond

    2011-08-01

    Full Text Available Demand planning for electricity consumption is a key success factor for the development of any countries. However, this can only be achieved if the demand is forecasted accurately. In this research, different forecasting methods—autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA, artificial neural network (ANN and multiple linear regression (MLR—were utilized to formulate prediction models of the electricity demand in Thailand. The objective was to compare the performance of these three approaches and the empirical data used in this study was the historical data regarding the electricity demand (population, gross domestic product: GDP, stock index, revenue from exporting industrial products and electricity consumption in Thailand from 1986 to 2010. The results showed that the ANN model reduced the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE to 0.996%, while those of ARIMA and MLR were 2.80981 and 3.2604527%, respectively. Based on these error measures, the results indicated that the ANN approach outperformed the ARIMA and MLR methods in this scenario. However, the paired test indicated that there was no significant difference among these methods at α = 0.05. According to the principle of parsimony, the ARIMA and MLR models might be preferable to the ANN one because of their simple structure and competitive performance

  7. Treatment of Outliers via Interpolation Method with Neural Network Forecast Performances

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wahir, N. A.; Nor, M. E.; Rusiman, M. S.; Gopal, K.

    2018-04-01

    Outliers often lurk in many datasets, especially in real data. Such anomalous data can negatively affect statistical analyses, primarily normality, variance, and estimation aspects. Hence, handling the occurrences of outliers require special attention. Therefore, it is important to determine the suitable ways in treating outliers so as to ensure that the quality of the analyzed data is indeed high. As such, this paper discusses an alternative method to treat outliers via linear interpolation method. In fact, assuming outlier as a missing value in the dataset allows the application of the interpolation method to interpolate the outliers thus, enabling the comparison of data series using forecast accuracy before and after outlier treatment. With that, the monthly time series of Malaysian tourist arrivals from January 1998 until December 2015 had been used to interpolate the new series. The results indicated that the linear interpolation method, which was comprised of improved time series data, displayed better results, when compared to the original time series data in forecasting from both Box-Jenkins and neural network approaches.

  8. Forecasting Hoabinh Reservoir’s Incoming Flow: An Application of Neural Networks with the Cuckoo Search Algorithm

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jeng-Fung Chen

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available The accuracy of reservoir flow forecasting has the most significant influence on the assurance of stability and annual operations of hydro-constructions. For instance, accurate forecasting on the ebb and flow of Vietnam’s Hoabinh Reservoir can aid in the preparation and prevention of lowland flooding and drought, as well as regulating electric energy. This raises the need to propose a model that accurately forecasts the incoming flow of the Hoabinh Reservoir. In this study, a solution to this problem based on neural network with the Cuckoo Search (CS algorithm is presented. In particular, we used hydrographic data and predicted total incoming flows of the Hoabinh Reservoir over a period of 10 days. The Cuckoo Search algorithm was utilized to train the feedforward neural network (FNN for prediction. The algorithm optimized the weights between layers and biases of the neuron network. Different forecasting models for the three scenarios were developed. The constructed models have shown high forecasting performance based on the performance indices calculated. These results were also compared with those obtained from the neural networks trained by the particle swarm optimization (PSO and back-propagation (BP, indicating that the proposed approach performed more effectively. Based on the experimental results, the scenario using the rainfall and the flow as input yielded the highest forecasting accuracy when compared with other scenarios. The performance criteria RMSE, MAPE, and R obtained by the CS-FNN in this scenario were calculated as 48.7161, 0.067268 and 0.8965, respectively. These results were highly correlated to actual values. It is expected that this work may be useful for hydrographic forecasting.

  9. Forecasting outpatient visits using empirical mode decomposition coupled with back-propagation artificial neural networks optimized by particle swarm optimization.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Daizheng; Wu, Zhihui

    2017-01-01

    Accurately predicting the trend of outpatient visits by mathematical modeling can help policy makers manage hospitals effectively, reasonably organize schedules for human resources and finances, and appropriately distribute hospital material resources. In this study, a hybrid method based on empirical mode decomposition and back-propagation artificial neural networks optimized by particle swarm optimization is developed to forecast outpatient visits on the basis of monthly numbers. The data outpatient visits are retrieved from January 2005 to December 2013 and first obtained as the original time series. Second, the original time series is decomposed into a finite and often small number of intrinsic mode functions by the empirical mode decomposition technique. Third, a three-layer back-propagation artificial neural network is constructed to forecast each intrinsic mode functions. To improve network performance and avoid falling into a local minimum, particle swarm optimization is employed to optimize the weights and thresholds of back-propagation artificial neural networks. Finally, the superposition of forecasting results of the intrinsic mode functions is regarded as the ultimate forecasting value. Simulation indicates that the proposed method attains a better performance index than the other four methods.

  10. Forecasting the Dst index using a swarm-optimized neural network

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lazzús, J. A.; Vega, P.; Rojas, P.; Salfate, I.

    2017-08-01

    A hybrid technique that combines an artificial neural network with a particle swarm optimization (ANN+PSO) was used to forecast the disturbance storm time (Dst) index from 1 to 6 h ahead. Our ANN was optimized by PSO to update ANN weights and to predict the short-term Dst index using past values as input parameters. The database used contains 233,760 hourly data from 1 January 1990 to 31 August 2016, considering storms and quiet period, grouped into three data sets: learning set (with 116,880 hourly data points), validation set (with 58,440 data points), and testing set (with 58,440 data points). Several ANN topologies were studied, and the best architecture was determined by systematically adding neurons and evaluating the root-mean-square error (RMSE) and the correlation coefficient (R) during the training process. These results show that the hybrid algorithm is a powerful technique for forecasting the Dst index a short time in advance like t + 1 to t + 3, with RMSE from 3.5 nT to 7.5 nT, and R from 0.98 to 0.90. However, t + 4 to t + 6 predictions become slightly more uncertain, with RMSE from 8.8 nT to 10.9 nT, and R from 0.86 to 0.79. Additionally, an exhaustive analysis according to geomagnetic storm magnitude was conducted. In general, the results show that our hybrid algorithm can be correctly trained to forecast the Dst index with appropriate precision and that Dst past behavior significantly affects adequate training and predicting capabilities of the implemented ANN.

  11. A Hybrid Method Based on Singular Spectrum Analysis, Firefly Algorithm, and BP Neural Network for Short-Term Wind Speed Forecasting

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yuyang Gao

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available With increasing importance being attached to big data mining, analysis, and forecasting in the field of wind energy, how to select an optimization model to improve the forecasting accuracy of the wind speed time series is not only an extremely challenging problem, but also a problem of concern for economic forecasting. The artificial intelligence model is widely used in forecasting and data processing, but the individual back-propagation artificial neural network cannot always satisfy the time series forecasting needs. Thus, a hybrid forecasting approach has been proposed in this study, which consists of data preprocessing, parameter optimization and a neural network for advancing the accuracy of short-term wind speed forecasting. According to the case study, in which the data are collected from Peng Lai, a city located in China, the simulation results indicate that the hybrid forecasting method yields better predictions compared to the individual BP, which indicates that the hybrid method exhibits stronger forecasting ability.

  12. Generalized versus non-generalized neural network model for multi-lead inflow forecasting at Aswan High Dam

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. El-Shafie

    2011-03-01

    Full Text Available Artificial neural networks (ANN have been found efficient, particularly in problems where characteristics of the processes are stochastic and difficult to describe using explicit mathematical models. However, time series prediction based on ANN algorithms is fundamentally difficult and faces problems. One of the major shortcomings is the search for the optimal input pattern in order to enhance the forecasting capabilities for the output. The second challenge is the over-fitting problem during the training procedure and this occurs when ANN loses its generalization. In this research, autocorrelation and cross correlation analyses are suggested as a method for searching the optimal input pattern. On the other hand, two generalized methods namely, Regularized Neural Network (RNN and Ensemble Neural Network (ENN models are developed to overcome the drawbacks of classical ANN models. Using Generalized Neural Network (GNN helped avoid over-fitting of training data which was observed as a limitation of classical ANN models. Real inflow data collected over the last 130 years at Lake Nasser was used to train, test and validate the proposed model. Results show that the proposed GNN model outperforms non-generalized neural network and conventional auto-regressive models and it could provide accurate inflow forecasting.

  13. Modelling self-optimised short term load forecasting for medium voltage loads using tunning fuzzy systems and Artificial Neural Networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mahmoud, Thair S.; Habibi, Daryoush; Hassan, Mohammed Y.; Bass, Octavian

    2015-01-01

    Highlights: • A novel Short Term Medium Voltage (MV) Load Forecasting (STLF) model is presented. • A knowledge-based STLF error control mechanism is implemented. • An Artificial Neural Network (ANN)-based optimum tuning is applied on STLF. • The relationship between load profiles and operational conditions is analysed. - Abstract: This paper presents an intelligent mechanism for Short Term Load Forecasting (STLF) models, which allows self-adaptation with respect to the load operational conditions. Specifically, a knowledge-based FeedBack Tunning Fuzzy System (FBTFS) is proposed to instantaneously correlate the information about the demand profile and its operational conditions to make decisions for controlling the model’s forecasting error rate. To maintain minimum forecasting error under various operational scenarios, the FBTFS adaptation was optimised using a Multi-Layer Perceptron Artificial Neural Network (MLPANN), which was trained using Backpropagation algorithm, based on the information about the amount of error and the operational conditions at time of forecasting. For the sake of comparison and performance testing, this mechanism was added to the conventional forecasting methods, i.e. Nonlinear AutoRegressive eXogenous-Artificial Neural Network (NARXANN), Fuzzy Subtractive Clustering Method-based Adaptive Neuro Fuzzy Inference System (FSCMANFIS) and Gaussian-kernel Support Vector Machine (GSVM), and the measured forecasting error reduction average in a 12 month simulation period was 7.83%, 8.5% and 8.32% respectively. The 3.5 MW variable load profile of Edith Cowan University (ECU) in Joondalup, Australia, was used in the modelling and simulations of this model, and the data was provided by Western Power, the transmission and distribution company of the state of Western Australia.

  14. Neuro-fuzzy and neural network techniques for forecasting sea level in Darwin Harbor, Australia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karimi, Sepideh; Kisi, Ozgur; Shiri, Jalal; Makarynskyy, Oleg

    2013-03-01

    Accurate predictions of sea level with different forecast horizons are important for coastal and ocean engineering applications, as well as in land drainage and reclamation studies. The methodology of tidal harmonic analysis, which is generally used for obtaining a mathematical description of the tides, is data demanding requiring processing of tidal observation collected over several years. In the present study, hourly sea levels for Darwin Harbor, Australia were predicted using two different, data driven techniques, adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) and artificial neural network (ANN). Multi linear regression (MLR) technique was used for selecting the optimal input combinations (lag times) of hourly sea level. The input combination comprises current sea level as well as five previous level values found to be optimal. For the ANFIS models, five different membership functions namely triangular, trapezoidal, generalized bell, Gaussian and two Gaussian membership function were tested and employed for predicting sea level for the next 1 h, 24 h, 48 h and 72 h. The used ANN models were trained using three different algorithms, namely, Levenberg-Marquardt, conjugate gradient and gradient descent. Predictions of optimal ANFIS and ANN models were compared with those of the optimal auto-regressive moving average (ARMA) models. The coefficient of determination, root mean square error and variance account statistics were used as comparison criteria. The obtained results indicated that triangular membership function was optimal for predictions with the ANFIS models while adaptive learning rate and Levenberg-Marquardt were most suitable for training the ANN models. Consequently, ANFIS and ANN models gave similar forecasts and performed better than the developed for the same purpose ARMA models for all the prediction intervals.

  15. Daily Reservoir Runoff Forecasting Method Using Artificial Neural Network Based on Quantum-behaved Particle Swarm Optimization

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chun-tian Cheng

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available Accurate daily runoff forecasting is of great significance for the operation control of hydropower station and power grid. Conventional methods including rainfall-runoff models and statistical techniques usually rely on a number of assumptions, leading to some deviation from the exact results. Artificial neural network (ANN has the advantages of high fault-tolerance, strong nonlinear mapping and learning ability, which provides an effective method for the daily runoff forecasting. However, its training has certain drawbacks such as time-consuming, slow learning speed and easily falling into local optimum, which cannot be ignored in the real world application. In order to overcome the disadvantages of ANN model, the artificial neural network model based on quantum-behaved particle swarm optimization (QPSO, ANN-QPSO for short, is presented for the daily runoff forecasting in this paper, where QPSO was employed to select the synaptic weights and thresholds of ANN, while ANN was used for the prediction. The proposed model can combine the advantages of both QPSO and ANN to enhance the generalization performance of the forecasting model. The methodology is assessed by using the daily runoff data of Hongjiadu reservoir in southeast Guizhou province of China from 2006 to 2014. The results demonstrate that the proposed approach achieves much better forecast accuracy than the basic ANN model, and the QPSO algorithm is an alternative training technique for the ANN parameters selection.

  16. Application of a Hybrid Method Combining Grey Model and Back Propagation Artificial Neural Networks to Forecast Hepatitis B in China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ruijing Gan

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Accurate incidence forecasting of infectious disease provides potentially valuable insights in its own right. It is critical for early prevention and may contribute to health services management and syndrome surveillance. This study investigates the use of a hybrid algorithm combining grey model (GM and back propagation artificial neural networks (BP-ANN to forecast hepatitis B in China based on the yearly numbers of hepatitis B and to evaluate the method’s feasibility. The results showed that the proposal method has advantages over GM (1, 1 and GM (2, 1 in all the evaluation indexes.

  17. Application of a hybrid method combining grey model and back propagation artificial neural networks to forecast hepatitis B in china.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gan, Ruijing; Chen, Xiaojun; Yan, Yu; Huang, Daizheng

    2015-01-01

    Accurate incidence forecasting of infectious disease provides potentially valuable insights in its own right. It is critical for early prevention and may contribute to health services management and syndrome surveillance. This study investigates the use of a hybrid algorithm combining grey model (GM) and back propagation artificial neural networks (BP-ANN) to forecast hepatitis B in China based on the yearly numbers of hepatitis B and to evaluate the method's feasibility. The results showed that the proposal method has advantages over GM (1, 1) and GM (2, 1) in all the evaluation indexes.

  18. A hybrid method based on a new clustering technique and multilayer perceptron neural networks for hourly solar radiation forecasting

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Azimi, R.; Ghayekhloo, M.; Ghofrani, M.

    2016-01-01

    Highlights: • A novel clustering approach is proposed based on the data transformation approach. • A novel cluster selection method based on correlation analysis is presented. • The proposed hybrid clustering approach leads to deep learning for MLPNN. • A hybrid forecasting method is developed to predict solar radiations. • The evaluation results show superior performance of the proposed forecasting model. - Abstract: Accurate forecasting of renewable energy sources plays a key role in their integration into the grid. This paper proposes a hybrid solar irradiance forecasting framework using a Transformation based K-means algorithm, named TB K-means, to increase the forecast accuracy. The proposed clustering method is a combination of a new initialization technique, K-means algorithm and a new gradual data transformation approach. Unlike the other K-means based clustering methods which are not capable of providing a fixed and definitive answer due to the selection of different cluster centroids for each run, the proposed clustering provides constant results for different runs of the algorithm. The proposed clustering is combined with a time-series analysis, a novel cluster selection algorithm and a multilayer perceptron neural network (MLPNN) to develop the hybrid solar radiation forecasting method for different time horizons (1 h ahead, 2 h ahead, …, 48 h ahead). The performance of the proposed TB K-means clustering is evaluated using several different datasets and compared with different variants of K-means algorithm. Solar datasets with different solar radiation characteristics are also used to determine the accuracy and processing speed of the developed forecasting method with the proposed TB K-means and other clustering techniques. The results of direct comparison with other well-established forecasting models demonstrate the superior performance of the proposed hybrid forecasting method. Furthermore, a comparative analysis with the benchmark solar

  19. Forecasting the Acquisition of University Spin-Outs: An RBF Neural Network Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Weiwei Liu

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available University spin-outs (USOs, creating businesses from university intellectual property, are a relatively common phenomena. As a knowledge transfer channel, the spin-out business model is attracting extensive attention. In this paper, the impacts of six equities on the acquisition of USOs, including founders, university, banks, business angels, venture capitals, and other equity, are comprehensively analyzed based on theoretical and empirical studies. Firstly, the average distribution of spin-out equity at formation is calculated based on the sample data of 350 UK USOs. According to this distribution, a radial basis function (RBF neural network (NN model is employed to forecast the effects of each equity on the acquisition. To improve the classification accuracy, the novel set-membership method is adopted in the training process of the RBF NN. Furthermore, a simulation test is carried out to measure the effects of six equities on the acquisition of USOs. The simulation results show that the increase of university’s equity has a negative effect on the acquisition of USOs, whereas the increase of remaining five equities has positive effects. Finally, three suggestions are provided to promote the development and growth of USOs.

  20. THE EFFECT OF DECOMPOSITION METHOD AS DATA PREPROCESSING ON NEURAL NETWORKS MODEL FOR FORECASTING TREND AND SEASONAL TIME SERIES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Subanar Subanar

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available Recently, one of the central topics for the neural networks (NN community is the issue of data preprocessing on the use of NN. In this paper, we will investigate this topic particularly on the effect of Decomposition method as data processing and the use of NN for modeling effectively time series with both trend and seasonal patterns. Limited empirical studies on seasonal time series forecasting with neural networks show that some find neural networks are able to model seasonality directly and prior deseasonalization is not necessary, and others conclude just the opposite. In this research, we study particularly on the effectiveness of data preprocessing, including detrending and deseasonalization by applying Decomposition method on NN modeling and forecasting performance. We use two kinds of data, simulation and real data. Simulation data are examined on multiplicative of trend and seasonality patterns. The results are compared to those obtained from the classical time series model. Our result shows that a combination of detrending and deseasonalization by applying Decomposition method is the effective data preprocessing on the use of NN for forecasting trend and seasonal time series.

  1. Weather forecasting based on hybrid neural model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saba, Tanzila; Rehman, Amjad; AlGhamdi, Jarallah S.

    2017-11-01

    Making deductions and expectations about climate has been a challenge all through mankind's history. Challenges with exact meteorological directions assist to foresee and handle problems well in time. Different strategies have been investigated using various machine learning techniques in reported forecasting systems. Current research investigates climate as a major challenge for machine information mining and deduction. Accordingly, this paper presents a hybrid neural model (MLP and RBF) to enhance the accuracy of weather forecasting. Proposed hybrid model ensure precise forecasting due to the specialty of climate anticipating frameworks. The study concentrates on the data representing Saudi Arabia weather forecasting. The main input features employed to train individual and hybrid neural networks that include average dew point, minimum temperature, maximum temperature, mean temperature, average relative moistness, precipitation, normal wind speed, high wind speed and average cloudiness. The output layer composed of two neurons to represent rainy and dry weathers. Moreover, trial and error approach is adopted to select an appropriate number of inputs to the hybrid neural network. Correlation coefficient, RMSE and scatter index are the standard yard sticks adopted for forecast accuracy measurement. On individual standing MLP forecasting results are better than RBF, however, the proposed simplified hybrid neural model comes out with better forecasting accuracy as compared to both individual networks. Additionally, results are better than reported in the state of art, using a simple neural structure that reduces training time and complexity.

  2. An Exploratory Application of Neural Networks to the Sortie Generation Forecasting Problem

    Science.gov (United States)

    1991-09-01

    research of Dr. David A. Diener, Major, USAF. As the initial research increment to be improved upon by future researchers, this study (1) provides a... David A. Diener, Major, USAF, who virtually transformed my dream of exploring neural network techniques into concrete reality. His talents in...New York: John Wiley & Sons, 1978. Barron R. L., Gilstrap, L. 0., and Shrier , S. "Polynomial al and Neural Networks: Analogies and Engineering

  3. Ground Level Ozone Peak Forecast using Neural Networks and Kalman Filter

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Pelikán, Emil; Eben, Kryštof; Vondráček, Jiří; Krejčíř, Pavel; Keder, J.

    2000-01-01

    Roč. 3, č. 2 (2000), s. 3-8 ISSN 1335-339X Grant - others:APPETISE(XE) IST-99-11764; MŽP ČR(CZ) ZZ520/2/97; MŠMT ČR(CZ) VS96008 Institutional research plan: AV0Z1030915 Keywords : ozone forecast * neural classifications * Kalman filter * genetic algorithms * Kohonen maps * Czech Republic Subject RIV: BB - Applied Statistics, Operational Research

  4. A short-term load forecasting model of natural gas based on optimized genetic algorithm and improved BP neural network

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yu, Feng; Xu, Xiaozhong

    2014-01-01

    Highlights: • A detailed data processing will make more accurate results prediction. • Taking a full account of more load factors to improve the prediction precision. • Improved BP network obtains higher learning convergence. • Genetic algorithm optimized by chaotic cat map enhances the global search ability. • The combined GA–BP model improved by modified additional momentum factor is superior to others. - Abstract: This paper proposes an appropriate combinational approach which is based on improved BP neural network for short-term gas load forecasting, and the network is optimized by the real-coded genetic algorithm. Firstly, several kinds of modifications are carried out on the standard neural network to accelerate the convergence speed of network, including improved additional momentum factor, improved self-adaptive learning rate and improved momentum and self-adaptive learning rate. Then, it is available to use the global search capability of optimized genetic algorithm to determine the initial weights and thresholds of BP neural network to avoid being trapped in local minima. The ability of GA is enhanced by cat chaotic mapping. In light of the characteristic of natural gas load for Shanghai, a series of data preprocessing methods are adopted and more comprehensive load factors are taken into account to improve the prediction accuracy. Such improvements facilitate forecasting efficiency and exert maximum performance of the model. As a result, the integration model improved by modified additional momentum factor gets more ideal solutions for short-term gas load forecasting, through analyses and comparisons of the above several different combinational algorithms

  5. Improving forecasting accuracy of medium and long-term runoff using artificial neural network based on EEMD decomposition.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Wen-chuan; Chau, Kwok-wing; Qiu, Lin; Chen, Yang-bo

    2015-05-01

    Hydrological time series forecasting is one of the most important applications in modern hydrology, especially for the effective reservoir management. In this research, an artificial neural network (ANN) model coupled with the ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD) is presented for forecasting medium and long-term runoff time series. First, the original runoff time series is decomposed into a finite and often small number of intrinsic mode functions (IMFs) and a residual series using EEMD technique for attaining deeper insight into the data characteristics. Then all IMF components and residue are predicted, respectively, through appropriate ANN models. Finally, the forecasted results of the modeled IMFs and residual series are summed to formulate an ensemble forecast for the original annual runoff series. Two annual reservoir runoff time series from Biuliuhe and Mopanshan in China, are investigated using the developed model based on four performance evaluation measures (RMSE, MAPE, R and NSEC). The results obtained in this work indicate that EEMD can effectively enhance forecasting accuracy and the proposed EEMD-ANN model can attain significant improvement over ANN approach in medium and long-term runoff time series forecasting. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  6. Short-Term and Long-Term Forecasting for the 3D Point Position Changing by Using Artificial Neural Networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eleni-Georgia Alevizakou

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available Forecasting is one of the most growing areas in most sciences attracting the attention of many researchers for more extensive study. Therefore, the goal of this study is to develop an integrated forecasting methodology based on an Artificial Neural Network (ANN, which is a modern and attractive intelligent technique. The final result is to provide short-term and long-term forecasts for point position changing, i.e., the displacement or deformation of the surface they belong to. The motivation was the combination of two thoughts, the insertion of the forecasting concept in Geodesy as in the most scientific disciplines (e.g., Economics, Medicine and the desire to know the future position of any point on a construction or on the earth’s crustal. This methodology was designed to be accurate, stable and general for different kind of geodetic data. The basic procedure consists of the definition of the forecasting problem, the preliminary data analysis (data pre-processing, the definition of the most suitable ANN, its evaluation using the proper criteria and finally the production of forecasts. The methodology gives particular emphasis on the stages of the pre-processing and the evaluation. Additionally, the importance of the prediction intervals (PI is emphasized. A case study, which includes geodetic data from the year 2003 to the year 2016—namely X, Y, Z coordinates—is implemented. The data were acquired by 1000 permanent Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS stations. During this case study, 2016 ANNs—with different hyper-parameters—are trained and tested for short-term forecasting and 2016 for long-term forecasting, for each of the GNSS stations. In addition, other conventional statistical forecasting methods are used for the same purpose using the same data set. Finally the most appropriate Non-linear Autoregressive Recurrent network (NAR or Non-linear Autoregressive with eXogenous inputs (NARX for the forecasting of 3D point

  7. Comprehensive Forecast of Urban Water-Energy Demand Based on a Neural Network Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ziyi Yin

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available Water-energy nexus has been a popular topic of rese arch in recent years. The relationships between the demand for water resources and energy are intense and closely connected in urban areas. The primary, secondary, and tertiary industry gross domestic product (GDP, the total population, the urban population, annual precipitation, agricultural and industrial water consumption, tap water supply, the total discharge of industrial wastewater, the daily sewage treatment capacity, total and domestic electricity consumption, and the consumption of coal in industrial enterprises above the designed size were chosen as input indicators. A feedforward artificial neural network model (ANN based on a back-propagation algorithm with two hidden layers was constructed to combine urban water resources with energy demand. This model used historical data from 1991 to 2016 from Wuxi City, eastern China. Furthermore, a multiple linear regression model (MLR was introduced for comparison with the ANN. The results show the following: (a The mean relative error values of the forecast and historical urban water-energy demands are 1.58 % and 2.71%, respectively; (b The predicted water-energy demand value for 2020 is 4.843 billion cubic meters and 47.561 million tons of standard coal equivalent; (c The predicted water-energy demand value in the year 2030 is 5.887 billion cubic meters and 60.355 million tons of standard coal equivalent; (d Compared with the MLR, the ANN performed better in fitting training data, which achieved a more satisfactory accuracy and may provide a reference for urban water-energy supply planning decisions.

  8. An efficient approach for electric load forecasting using distributed ART (adaptive resonance theory) and HS-ARTMAP (Hyper-spherical ARTMAP network) neural network

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cai, Yuan; Wang, Jian-zhou; Tang, Yun; Yang, Yu-chen

    2011-01-01

    This paper presents a neural network based on adaptive resonance theory, named distributed ART (adaptive resonance theory) and HS-ARTMAP (Hyper-spherical ARTMAP network), applied to the electric load forecasting problem. The distributed ART combines the stable fast learning capabilities of winner-take-all ART systems with the noise tolerance and code compression capabilities of multi-layer perceptions. The HS-ARTMAP, a hybrid of an RBF (Radial Basis Function)-network-like module which uses hyper-sphere basis function substitute the Gaussian basis function and an ART-like module, performs incremental learning capabilities in function approximation problem. The HS-ARTMAP only receives the compressed distributed coding processed by distributed ART to deal with the proliferation problem which ARTMAP (adaptive resonance theory map) architecture often encounters and still performs well in electric load forecasting. To demonstrate the performance of the methodology, data from New South Wales and Victoria in Australia are illustrated. Results show that the developed method is much better than the traditional BP and single HS-ARTMAP neural network. -- Research highlights: → The processing of the presented network is based on compressed distributed data. It's an innovation among the adaptive resonance theory architecture. → The presented network decreases the proliferation the Fuzzy ARTMAP architectures usually encounter. → The network on-line forecasts electrical load accurately, stably. → Both one-period and multi-period load forecasting are executed using data of different cities.

  9. Experimental Analysis of the Input Variables’ Relevance to Forecast Next Day’s Aggregated Electric Demand Using Neural Networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pablo García

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available Thanks to the built in intelligence (deployment of new intelligent devices and sensors in places where historically they were not present, the Smart Grid and Microgrid paradigms are able to take advantage from aggregated load forecasting, which opens the door for the implementation of new algorithms to seize this information for optimization and advanced planning. Therefore, accuracy in load forecasts will potentially have a big impact on key operation factors for the future Smart Grid/Microgrid-based energy network like user satisfaction and resource saving, and new methods to achieve an efficient prediction in future energy landscapes (very different from the centralized, big area networks studied so far. This paper proposes different improved models to forecast next day’s aggregated load using artificial neural networks, taking into account the variables that are most relevant for the aggregated. In particular, seven models based on the multilayer perceptron will be proposed, progressively adding input variables after analyzing the influence of climate factors on aggregated load. The results section presents the forecast from the proposed models, obtained from real data.

  10. Reduction of the dimension of neural network models in problems of pattern recognition and forecasting

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nasertdinova, A. D.; Bochkarev, V. V.

    2017-11-01

    Deep neural networks with a large number of parameters are a powerful tool for solving problems of pattern recognition, prediction and classification. Nevertheless, overfitting remains a serious problem in the use of such networks. A method of solving the problem of overfitting is proposed in this article. This method is based on reducing the number of independent parameters of a neural network model using the principal component analysis, and can be implemented using existing libraries of neural computing. The algorithm was tested on the problem of recognition of handwritten symbols from the MNIST database, as well as on the task of predicting time series (rows of the average monthly number of sunspots and series of the Lorentz system were used). It is shown that the application of the principal component analysis enables reducing the number of parameters of the neural network model when the results are good. The average error rate for the recognition of handwritten figures from the MNIST database was 1.12% (which is comparable to the results obtained using the "Deep training" methods), while the number of parameters of the neural network can be reduced to 130 times.

  11. Australia's long-term electricity demand forecasting using deep neural networks

    OpenAIRE

    Hamedmoghadam, Homayoun; Joorabloo, Nima; Jalili, Mahdi

    2018-01-01

    Accurate prediction of long-term electricity demand has a significant role in demand side management and electricity network planning and operation. Demand over-estimation results in over-investment in network assets, driving up the electricity prices, while demand under-estimation may lead to under-investment resulting in unreliable and insecure electricity. In this manuscript, we apply deep neural networks to predict Australia's long-term electricity demand. A stacked autoencoder is used in...

  12. Short-term streamflow forecasting with global climate change implications A comparative study between genetic programming and neural network models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Makkeasorn, A.; Chang, N. B.; Zhou, X.

    2008-05-01

    SummarySustainable water resources management is a critically important priority across the globe. While water scarcity limits the uses of water in many ways, floods may also result in property damages and the loss of life. To more efficiently use the limited amount of water under the changing world or to resourcefully provide adequate time for flood warning, the issues have led us to seek advanced techniques for improving streamflow forecasting on a short-term basis. This study emphasizes the inclusion of sea surface temperature (SST) in addition to the spatio-temporal rainfall distribution via the Next Generation Radar (NEXRAD), meteorological data via local weather stations, and historical stream data via USGS gage stations to collectively forecast discharges in a semi-arid watershed in south Texas. Two types of artificial intelligence models, including genetic programming (GP) and neural network (NN) models, were employed comparatively. Four numerical evaluators were used to evaluate the validity of a suite of forecasting models. Research findings indicate that GP-derived streamflow forecasting models were generally favored in the assessment in which both SST and meteorological data significantly improve the accuracy of forecasting. Among several scenarios, NEXRAD rainfall data were proven its most effectiveness for a 3-day forecast, and SST Gulf-to-Atlantic index shows larger impacts than the SST Gulf-to-Pacific index on the streamflow forecasts. The most forward looking GP-derived models can even perform a 30-day streamflow forecast ahead of time with an r-square of 0.84 and RMS error 5.4 in our study.

  13. Hybrid methodology for tuberculosis incidence time-series forecasting based on ARIMA and a NAR neural network.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, K W; Deng, C; Li, J P; Zhang, Y Y; Li, X Y; Wu, M C

    2017-04-01

    Tuberculosis (TB) affects people globally and is being reconsidered as a serious public health problem in China. Reliable forecasting is useful for the prevention and control of TB. This study proposes a hybrid model combining autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) with a nonlinear autoregressive (NAR) neural network for forecasting the incidence of TB from January 2007 to March 2016. Prediction performance was compared between the hybrid model and the ARIMA model. The best-fit hybrid model was combined with an ARIMA (3,1,0) × (0,1,1)12 and NAR neural network with four delays and 12 neurons in the hidden layer. The ARIMA-NAR hybrid model, which exhibited lower mean square error, mean absolute error, and mean absolute percentage error of 0·2209, 0·1373, and 0·0406, respectively, in the modelling performance, could produce more accurate forecasting of TB incidence compared to the ARIMA model. This study shows that developing and applying the ARIMA-NAR hybrid model is an effective method to fit the linear and nonlinear patterns of time-series data, and this model could be helpful in the prevention and control of TB.

  14. Developing a Mixed Neural Network Approach to Forecast the Residential Electricity Consumption Based on Sensor Recorded Data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oprea, Simona-Vasilica; Pîrjan, Alexandru; Căruțașu, George; Petroșanu, Dana-Mihaela; Bâra, Adela; Stănică, Justina-Lavinia; Coculescu, Cristina

    2018-05-05

    In this paper, we report a study having as a main goal the obtaining of a method that can provide an accurate forecast of the residential electricity consumption, refining it up to the appliance level, using sensor recorded data, for residential smart homes complexes that use renewable energy sources as a part of their consumed electricity, overcoming the limitations of not having available historical meteorological data and the unwillingness of the contractor to acquire such data periodically in the future accurate short-term forecasts from a specialized institute due to the implied costs. In this purpose, we have developed a mixed artificial neural network (ANN) approach using both non-linear autoregressive with exogenous input (NARX) ANNs and function fitting neural networks (FITNETs). We have used a large dataset containing detailed electricity consumption data recorded by sensors, monitoring a series of individual appliances, while in the NARX case we have also used timestamps datasets as exogenous variables. After having developed and validated the forecasting method, we have compiled it in view of incorporating it into a cloud solution, being delivered to the contractor that can provide it as a service for a monthly fee to both the operators and residential consumers.

  15. The Use of Neural Network and Portfolio Analysis in Forecasting Share Prices at the Stock Exchange

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Przemyslaw Stochel

    2000-01-01

    Full Text Available The article presents the use of neural networks in decision making process on the capital market. The author tried to show the efficiency of established solution in Polish reality which features different conditions in comparison with the markets of higher developed countries. The aim of the paper was to prove that neural networks are flexible tools which on one hand might be adjusted to investor's requirements and on the other, can reduce equirements to his experience. The article is based on the author's own research carried out by modelling neural network operation with a simulation program. The established solutions are input which employs stocks portfolio computed on the basis of Markowitz portfolio theory and Sharpe's model. According to the established propositions, the portfolio created in such a way is modified by neutral network in order to optimise a criterion which maximises the income of such a modified portfolio. A detailed genesis of the established input vector and network structure are presented. It allows the reader to carry out his own research and create his own attitude towards applied values. The research results based on a real stock market database with the use of one-output networks predicting thc price of a single company - Agros as well as networks predicting the desirable structure of the whole portfolio are presented. The effect of the network structure leaming parameters, input vector (not only as to the input quantity but also as to period of time they were collected was examined. The dependence between the factors mentioned above such as input vector and network structure were discussed. lt seems that the presented paper has proved that some not widely spread methods with neural networks can become at competitive tool to optimisation methods.

  16. The Carbon Trading Price and Trading Volume Forecast in Shanghai City by BP Neural Network

    OpenAIRE

    Liu Zhiyuan; Sun Zongdi

    2017-01-01

    In this paper, the BP neural network model is established to predict the carbon trading price and carbon trading volume in Shanghai City. First of all, we find the data of carbon trading price and carbon trading volume in Shanghai City from September 30, 2015 to December 23, 2016. The carbon trading price and trading volume data were processed to get the average value of each 5, 10, 20, 30, and 60 carbon trading price and trading volume. Then, these data are used as input of BP neural network...

  17. Improved Short-Term Load Forecasting Based on Two-Stage Predictions with Artificial Neural Networks in a Microgrid Environment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jaime Lloret

    2013-08-01

    Full Text Available Short-Term Load Forecasting plays a significant role in energy generation planning, and is specially gaining momentum in the emerging Smart Grids environment, which usually presents highly disaggregated scenarios where detailed real-time information is available thanks to Communications and Information Technologies, as it happens for example in the case of microgrids. This paper presents a two stage prediction model based on an Artificial Neural Network in order to allow Short-Term Load Forecasting of the following day in microgrid environment, which first estimates peak and valley values of the demand curve of the day to be forecasted. Those, together with other variables, will make the second stage, forecast of the entire demand curve, more precise than a direct, single-stage forecast. The whole architecture of the model will be presented and the results compared with recent work on the same set of data, and on the same location, obtaining a Mean Absolute Percentage Error of 1.62% against the original 2.47% of the single stage model.

  18. Forecast of TEXT plasma disruptions using soft X-rays as input signal in a neural network

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vannucci, A.; Oliveira, K.A.; Tajima, T.; Tajima, Y.J.

    2001-01-01

    A feed-forward neural network is used to forecast major and minor disruptions in TEXT tokamak discharges. Using the experimental data of soft X-ray signals as input data, the neural net is trained with one disruptive plasma discharge, while a different disruptive discharge is used for validation. After proper training, the net works with the same set of weights, it is then used to forecast disruptions in two other different plasma discharges. It is observed that the neural net is capable of predicting the onset of a disruption up to 3.12 ms in advance. From what we observe in the predictive behavior of our network, speculations are made whether the disruption triggering mechanism is associated with an increase in the m=2 magnetic island, that disturbs the central part of the plasma column afterwards, or the initial perturbation has first occurred in the central part of the plasma column and then the m=2 MHD mode is destabilized. (author)

  19. Direction-of-change forecasting using a volatility-based recurrent neural network

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bekiros, S.D.; Georgoutsos, D.A.

    2008-01-01

    This paper investigates the profitability of a trading strategy, based on recurrent neural networks, that attempts to predict the direction-of-change of the market in the case of the NASDAQ composite index. The sample extends over the period 8 February 1971 to 7 April 1998, while the sub-period 8

  20. Neural networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Denby, Bruce; Lindsey, Clark; Lyons, Louis

    1992-01-01

    The 1980s saw a tremendous renewal of interest in 'neural' information processing systems, or 'artificial neural networks', among computer scientists and computational biologists studying cognition. Since then, the growth of interest in neural networks in high energy physics, fueled by the need for new information processing technologies for the next generation of high energy proton colliders, can only be described as explosive

  1. Multi nodal load forecasting in electric power systems using a radial basis neural network; Previsao de carga multinodal em sistemas eletricos de potencia usando uma rede neural de base radial

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Altran, A.B.; Lotufo, A.D.P.; Minussi, C.R. [Universidade Estadual Paulista Julio de Mesquita Filho (UNESP), Ilha Solteira, SP (Brazil). Dept. de Engenharia Eletrica], Emails: lealtran@yahoo.com.br, annadiva@dee.feis.unesp.br, minussi@dee.feis.unesp.br; Lopes, M.L.M. [Universidade Estadual Paulista Julio de Mesquita Filho (UNESP), Ilha Solteira, SP (Brazil). Dept. de Matematica], E-mail: mara@mat.feis.unesp.br

    2009-07-01

    This paper presents a methodology for electrical load forecasting, using radial base functions as activation function in artificial neural networks with the training by backpropagation algorithm. This methodology is applied to short term electrical load forecasting (24 h ahead). Therefore, results are presented analyzing the use of radial base functions substituting the sigmoid function as activation function in multilayer perceptron neural networks. However, the main contribution of this paper is the proposal of a new formulation of load forecasting dedicated to the forecasting in several points of the electrical network, as well as considering several types of users (residential, commercial, industrial). It deals with the MLF (Multimodal Load Forecasting), with the same processing time as the GLF (Global Load Forecasting). (author)

  2. Forecasts for the Canadian Lynx time series using method that bombine neural networks, wavelet shrinkage and decomposition

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Levi Lopes Teixeira

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Time series forecasting is widely used in various areas of human knowledge, especially in the planning and strategic direction of companies. The success of this task depends on the forecasting techniques applied. In this paper, a hybrid approach to project time series is suggested. To validate the methodology, a time series already modeled by other authors was chosen, allowing the comparison of results. The proposed methodology includes the following techniques: wavelet shrinkage, wavelet decomposition at level r, and artificial neural networks (ANN. Firstly, a time series to be forecasted is submitted to the proposed wavelet filtering method, which decomposes it to components of trend and linear residue. Then, both are decomposed via level r wavelet decomposition, generating r + 1 Wavelet Components (WCs for each one; and then each WC is individually modeled by an ANN. Finally, the predictions for all WCs are linearly combined, producing forecasts to the underlying time series. For evaluating purposes, the time series of Canadian Lynx has been used, and all results achieved by the proposed method were better than others in existing literature.

  3. Energy management of a university campus utilizing short-term load forecasting with an artificial neural network

    Science.gov (United States)

    Palchak, David

    Electrical load forecasting is a tool that has been utilized by distribution designers and operators as a means for resource planning and generation dispatch. The techniques employed in these predictions are proving useful in the growing market of consumer, or end-user, participation in electrical energy consumption. These predictions are based on exogenous variables, such as weather, and time variables, such as day of week and time of day as well as prior energy consumption patterns. The participation of the end-user is a cornerstone of the Smart Grid initiative presented in the Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007, and is being made possible by the emergence of enabling technologies such as advanced metering infrastructure. The optimal application of the data provided by an advanced metering infrastructure is the primary motivation for the work done in this thesis. The methodology for using this data in an energy management scheme that utilizes a short-term load forecast is presented. The objective of this research is to quantify opportunities for a range of energy management and operation cost savings of a university campus through the use of a forecasted daily electrical load profile. The proposed algorithm for short-term load forecasting is optimized for Colorado State University's main campus, and utilizes an artificial neural network that accepts weather and time variables as inputs. The performance of the predicted daily electrical load is evaluated using a number of error measurements that seek to quantify the best application of the forecast. The energy management presented utilizes historical electrical load data from the local service provider to optimize the time of day that electrical loads are being managed. Finally, the utilization of forecasts in the presented energy management scenario is evaluated based on cost and energy savings.

  4. Forecasting the term structure of crude oil futures prices with neural networks

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Baruník, Jozef; Malinská, B.

    2016-01-01

    Roč. 164, č. 1 (2016), s. 366-379 ISSN 0306-2619 R&D Projects: GA ČR(CZ) GBP402/12/G097 Institutional support: RVO:67985556 Keywords : Term structure * Nelson–Siegel model * Dynamic neural networks * Crude oil futures Subject RIV: AH - Economics Impact factor: 7.182, year: 2016 http://library.utia.cas.cz/separaty/2016/E/barunik-0453168.pdf

  5. Strong geomagnetic activity forecast by neural networks under dominant southern orientation of the interplanetary magnetic field

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Valach, F.; Bochníček, Josef; Hejda, Pavel; Revallo, M.

    2014-01-01

    Roč. 53, č. 4 (2014), s. 589-598 ISSN 0273-1177 R&D Projects: GA AV ČR(CZ) IAA300120608; GA MŠk OC09070 Institutional support: RVO:67985530 Keywords : geomagnetic activity * interplanetary magnetic field * artificial neural network * ejection of coronal mass * X-ray flares Subject RIV: DE - Earth Magnetism, Geodesy, Geography Impact factor: 1.358, year: 2014

  6. A novel stock forecasting model based on High-order-fuzzy-fluctuation Trends and Back Propagation Neural Network.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guan, Hongjun; Dai, Zongli; Zhao, Aiwu; He, Jie

    2018-01-01

    In this paper, we propose a hybrid method to forecast the stock prices called High-order-fuzzy-fluctuation-Trends-based Back Propagation(HTBP)Neural Network model. First, we compare each value of the historical training data with the previous day's value to obtain a fluctuation trend time series (FTTS). On this basis, the FTTS blur into fuzzy time series (FFTS) based on the fluctuation of the increasing, equality, decreasing amplitude and direction. Since the relationship between FFTS and future wave trends is nonlinear, the HTBP neural network algorithm is used to find the mapping rules in the form of self-learning. Finally, the results of the algorithm output are used to predict future fluctuations. The proposed model provides some innovative features:(1)It combines fuzzy set theory and neural network algorithm to avoid overfitting problems existed in traditional models. (2)BP neural network algorithm can intelligently explore the internal rules of the actual existence of sequential data, without the need to analyze the influence factors of specific rules and the path of action. (3)The hybrid modal can reasonably remove noises from the internal rules by proper fuzzy treatment. This paper takes the TAIEX data set of Taiwan stock exchange as an example, and compares and analyzes the prediction performance of the model. The experimental results show that this method can predict the stock market in a very simple way. At the same time, we use this method to predict the Shanghai stock exchange composite index, and further verify the effectiveness and universality of the method.

  7. Identification of the actual state and entity availability forecasting in power engineering using neural-network technologies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Protalinsky, O. M.; Shcherbatov, I. A.; Stepanov, P. V.

    2017-11-01

    A growing number of severe accidents in RF call for the need to develop a system that could prevent emergency situations. In a number of cases accident rate is stipulated by careless inspections and neglects in developing repair programs. Across the country rates of accidents are growing because of a so-called “human factor”. In this regard, there has become urgent the problem of identification of the actual state of technological facilities in power engineering using data on engineering processes running and applying artificial intelligence methods. The present work comprises four model states of manufacturing equipment of engineering companies: defect, failure, preliminary situation, accident. Defect evaluation is carried out using both data from SCADA and ASEPCR and qualitative information (verbal assessments of experts in subject matter, photo- and video materials of surveys processed using pattern recognition methods in order to satisfy the requirements). Early identification of defects makes possible to predict the failure of manufacturing equipment using mathematical techniques of artificial neural network. In its turn, this helps to calculate predicted characteristics of reliability of engineering facilities using methods of reliability theory. Calculation of the given parameters provides the real-time estimation of remaining service life of manufacturing equipment for the whole operation period. The neural networks model allows evaluating possibility of failure of a piece of equipment consistent with types of actual defects and their previous reasons. The article presents the grounds for a choice of training and testing samples for the developed neural network, evaluates the adequacy of the neural networks model, and shows how the model can be used to forecast equipment failure. There have been carried out simulating experiments using a computer and retrospective samples of actual values for power engineering companies. The efficiency of the developed

  8. Nonlinear forecasting of stream flows using a chaotic approach and artificial neural networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hakan Tongal

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available This paper evaluates the forecasting performance of two nonlinear models, k-nearest neighbor (kNN and feed-forward neural networks (FFNN, using stream flow data of the Kızılırmak River, the longest river in Turkey. For the kNN model, the required parameters are delay time, number of nearest neigh- bors and embedding dimension. The optimal delay time was obtained with the mutual information function; the number of nearest neighbors was obtained with the optimization process that minimi- zes RMSE as a function of the neighbor number and the embedding dimension was obtained with the correlation dimension method. The correlation dimension of the Kızılırmak River was d = 2.702, which was used in forming the input structure of the FFNN. The nearest integer above the correlation dimension (i.e., 3 provided the minimal number of required variables to characterize the system, and the maximum number of required variables was obtained with the nearest integer above the value 2d + 1 (Takens, 1981 (i.e., 7. Two FFNN models were developed that incorporate 3 and 7 lagged discharge values and the predicted performance compared to that of the kNN model. The results showed that the kNN model was superior to the FFNN model in stream flow forecasting. However, as a result from the kNN model structure, the model failed in the prediction of peak values. Additionally, it was found that the correlation dimension (if it existed could successfully be used in time series where the determina- tion of the input structure is difficult because of high inter-dependency, as in stream flow time series.  Resumen Este trabajo evalúa el desempeño de pronóstico de dos modelos no lineares, de método de clasificación no paramétrico kNN y de redes neuronales con alimentación avanzada (FNNN, usando datos de flujo del río Kizilirmak, el mayor de Turquía. Para el modelo kNN, los parámetros requeridos son tiempo de retraso, número de vecindarios cercanos y dimensión de

  9. Neural Networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Smith, Patrick I.

    2003-01-01

    Physicists use large detectors to measure particles created in high-energy collisions at particle accelerators. These detectors typically produce signals indicating either where ionization occurs along the path of the particle, or where energy is deposited by the particle. The data produced by these signals is fed into pattern recognition programs to try to identify what particles were produced, and to measure the energy and direction of these particles. Ideally, there are many techniques used in this pattern recognition software. One technique, neural networks, is particularly suitable for identifying what type of particle caused by a set of energy deposits. Neural networks can derive meaning from complicated or imprecise data, extract patterns, and detect trends that are too complex to be noticed by either humans or other computer related processes. To assist in the advancement of this technology, Physicists use a tool kit to experiment with several neural network techniques. The goal of this research is interface a neural network tool kit into Java Analysis Studio (JAS3), an application that allows data to be analyzed from any experiment. As the final result, a physicist will have the ability to train, test, and implement a neural network with the desired output while using JAS3 to analyze the results or output. Before an implementation of a neural network can take place, a firm understanding of what a neural network is and how it works is beneficial. A neural network is an artificial representation of the human brain that tries to simulate the learning process [5]. It is also important to think of the word artificial in that definition as computer programs that use calculations during the learning process. In short, a neural network learns by representative examples. Perhaps the easiest way to describe the way neural networks learn is to explain how the human brain functions. The human brain contains billions of neural cells that are responsible for processing

  10. Artificial neural network forecast application for fine particulate matter concentration using meteorological data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Memarianfard

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available Most parts of the urban areas are faced with the problem of floating fine particulate matter. Therefore, it is crucial to estimate the amounts of fine particulate matter concentrations through the urban atmosphere. In this research, an artificial neural network technique was utilized to model the PM2.5 dispersion in Tehran City. Factors which are influencing the predicted value consist of weather-related and air pollution-related data, i.e. wind speed, humidity, temperature, SO2, CO, NO2, and PM2.5 as target values. These factors have been considered in 19 measuring stations (zones over urban area across Tehran City during four years, from March 2011 to March 2015. The results indicate that the network with hidden layer including six neurons at training epoch 113, has the best performance with the lowest error value (MSE=0.049438 on considering PM2.5 concentrations across metropolitan areas in Tehran. Furthermore, the “R” value for regression analysis of training, validation, test, and all data are 0.65898, 0.6419, 0.54027, and 0.62331, respectively. This study also represents the artificial neural networks have satisfactory implemented for resolving complex patterns in the field of air pollution.

  11. INDIA’S ELECTRICITY DEMAND FORECAST USING REGRESSION ANALYSIS AND ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORKS BASED ON PRINCIPAL COMPONENTS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Saravanan

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available Power System planning starts with Electric load (demand forecasting. Accurate electricity load forecasting is one of the most important challenges in managing supply and demand of the electricity, since the electricity demand is volatile in nature; it cannot be stored and has to be consumed instantly. The aim of this study deals with electricity consumption in India, to forecast future projection of demand for a period of 19 years from 2012 to 2030. The eleven input variables used are Amount of CO2 emission, Population, Per capita GDP, Per capita gross national income, Gross Domestic savings, Industry, Consumer price index, Wholesale price index, Imports, Exports and Per capita power consumption. A new methodology based on Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs using principal components is also used. Data of 29 years used for training and data of 10 years used for testing the ANNs. Comparison made with multiple linear regression (based on original data and the principal components and ANNs with original data as input variables. The results show that the use of ANNs with principal components (PC is more effective.

  12. Forecasting of UV-Vis absorbance time series using artificial neural networks combined with principal component analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Plazas-Nossa, Leonardo; Hofer, Thomas; Gruber, Günter; Torres, Andres

    2017-02-01

    This work proposes a methodology for the forecasting of online water quality data provided by UV-Vis spectrometry. Therefore, a combination of principal component analysis (PCA) to reduce the dimensionality of a data set and artificial neural networks (ANNs) for forecasting purposes was used. The results obtained were compared with those obtained by using discrete Fourier transform (DFT). The proposed methodology was applied to four absorbance time series data sets composed by a total number of 5705 UV-Vis spectra. Absolute percentage errors obtained by applying the proposed PCA/ANN methodology vary between 10% and 13% for all four study sites. In general terms, the results obtained were hardly generalizable, as they appeared to be highly dependent on specific dynamics of the water system; however, some trends can be outlined. PCA/ANN methodology gives better results than PCA/DFT forecasting procedure by using a specific spectra range for the following conditions: (i) for Salitre wastewater treatment plant (WWTP) (first hour) and Graz West R05 (first 18 min), from the last part of UV range to all visible range; (ii) for Gibraltar pumping station (first 6 min) for all UV-Vis absorbance spectra; and (iii) for San Fernando WWTP (first 24 min) for all of UV range to middle part of visible range.

  13. A novel stock forecasting model based on High-order-fuzzy-fluctuation Trends and Back Propagation Neural Network.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hongjun Guan

    Full Text Available In this paper, we propose a hybrid method to forecast the stock prices called High-order-fuzzy-fluctuation-Trends-based Back Propagation(HTBPNeural Network model. First, we compare each value of the historical training data with the previous day's value to obtain a fluctuation trend time series (FTTS. On this basis, the FTTS blur into fuzzy time series (FFTS based on the fluctuation of the increasing, equality, decreasing amplitude and direction. Since the relationship between FFTS and future wave trends is nonlinear, the HTBP neural network algorithm is used to find the mapping rules in the form of self-learning. Finally, the results of the algorithm output are used to predict future fluctuations. The proposed model provides some innovative features:(1It combines fuzzy set theory and neural network algorithm to avoid overfitting problems existed in traditional models. (2BP neural network algorithm can intelligently explore the internal rules of the actual existence of sequential data, without the need to analyze the influence factors of specific rules and the path of action. (3The hybrid modal can reasonably remove noises from the internal rules by proper fuzzy treatment. This paper takes the TAIEX data set of Taiwan stock exchange as an example, and compares and analyzes the prediction performance of the model. The experimental results show that this method can predict the stock market in a very simple way. At the same time, we use this method to predict the Shanghai stock exchange composite index, and further verify the effectiveness and universality of the method.

  14. A Neural Network Classifier Model for Forecasting Safety Behavior at Workplaces

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fakhradin Ghasemi

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available The construction industry is notorious for having an unacceptable rate of fatal accidents. Unsafe behavior has been recognized as the main cause of most accidents occurring at workplaces, particularly construction sites. Having a predictive model of safety behavior can be helpful in preventing construction accidents. The aim of the present study was to build a predictive model of unsafe behavior using the Artificial Neural Network approach. A brief literature review was conducted on factors affecting safe behavior at workplaces and nine factors were selected to be included in the study. Data were gathered using a validated questionnaire from several construction sites. Multilayer perceptron approach was utilized for constructing the desired neural network. Several models with various architectures were tested to find the best one. Sensitivity analysis was conducted to find the most influential factors. The model with one hidden layer containing fourteen hidden neurons demonstrated the best performance (Sum of Squared Errors=6.73. The error rate of the model was approximately 21 percent. The results of sensitivity analysis showed that safety attitude, safety knowledge, supportive environment, and management commitment had the highest effects on safety behavior, while the effects from resource allocation and perceived work pressure were identified to be lower than those of others. The complex nature of human behavior at workplaces and the presence of many influential factors make it difficult to achieve a model with perfect performance.

  15. RESEARCH ON THE DIRECT CARBON EMISSION FORECAST OF CHINA'S PROVINCIAL RESIDENTS BASED ON NEURAL NETWORK

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. Zhang

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available Global climate change, which mainly effected by human carbon emissions, would affect the regional economic, natural ecological environment, social development and food security in the near future. It’s particularly important to make accurate predictions of carbon emissions based on current carbon emissions. This paper accounted out the direct consumption of carbon emissions data from 1995 to 2014 about 30 provinces (the data of Tibet, Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan is missing and the whole of China. And it selected the optimal models from BP, RBF and Elman neural network for direct carbon emission prediction, what aim was to select the optimal prediction method and explore the possibility of reaching the peak of residents direct carbon emissions of China in 2030. Research shows that: 1 Residents’ direct carbon emissions per capita of all provinces showed an upward trend in 20 years. 2 The accuracy of the prediction results by Elman neural network model is higher than others and more suitable for carbon emission data projections. 3 With the situation of residents’ direct carbon emissions free development, the direct carbon emissions will show a fast to slow upward trend in the next few years and began to flatten after 2020, and the direct carbon emissions of per capita will reach the peak in 2032. This is also confirmed that China is expected to reach its peak in carbon emissions by 2030 in theory.

  16. Research on the Direct Carbon Emission Forecast of CHINA'S Provincial Residents Based on Neural Network

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, T.; Zhou, B.; Zhou, S.; Yan, W.

    2018-04-01

    Global climate change, which mainly effected by human carbon emissions, would affect the regional economic, natural ecological environment, social development and food security in the near future. It's particularly important to make accurate predictions of carbon emissions based on current carbon emissions. This paper accounted out the direct consumption of carbon emissions data from 1995 to 2014 about 30 provinces (the data of Tibet, Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan is missing) and the whole of China. And it selected the optimal models from BP, RBF and Elman neural network for direct carbon emission prediction, what aim was to select the optimal prediction method and explore the possibility of reaching the peak of residents direct carbon emissions of China in 2030. Research shows that: 1) Residents' direct carbon emissions per capita of all provinces showed an upward trend in 20 years. 2) The accuracy of the prediction results by Elman neural network model is higher than others and more suitable for carbon emission data projections. 3) With the situation of residents' direct carbon emissions free development, the direct carbon emissions will show a fast to slow upward trend in the next few years and began to flatten after 2020, and the direct carbon emissions of per capita will reach the peak in 2032. This is also confirmed that China is expected to reach its peak in carbon emissions by 2030 in theory.

  17. Application of Statistical, Fuzzy and Perceptron Neural Networks in Drought Forecasting (Case Study: Gonbad-e Kavous Station

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S.M. Hosseini-Moghari

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: Due to economic, social, and environmental perplexities associated with drought, it is considered as one of the most complex natural hazards. To investigate the beginning along with analyzing the direct impacts of drought; the significance of drought monitoring must be highlighted. Regarding drought management and its consequences alleviation, drought forecasting must be taken into account (11. The current research employed multi-layer perceptron (MLP, adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS, radial basis function (RBF and general regression neural network (GRNN. It is interesting to note that, there has not been any record of applying GRNN in drought forecasting. Materials and Methods: Throughout this paper, Standard Precipitation Index (SPI was the basis of drought forecasting. To do so, the precipitation data of Gonbad Kavous station during the period of 1972-73 to 2006-07 were used. To provide short-term, mid-term, and long-term drought analysis; SPI for 1, 3, 6, 9, 12, and 24 months was evaluated. SPI evaluation benefited from four statistical distributions, namely, Gamma, Normal, Log-normal, and Weibull along with Kolmogrov-Smirnov (K-S test. Later, to compare the capabilities of four utilized neural networks for drought forecasting; MLP, ANFIS, RBF, and GRNN were applied. MLP as a multi-layer network, which has a sigmoid activation function in hidden layer plus linear function in output layer, can be considered as a powerful regressive tool. ANFIS besides adaptive neuro networks, employed fuzzy logic. RBF, the foundation of radial basis networks, is a three-layer network with Gaussian function in its hidden layer, and a linear function in the output layer. GRNN is another type of RBF which is used for radial basis regressive problems. The performance criteria of the research were as follows: Correlation (R2, Root Mean Square Error (RMSE, Mean Absolute Error (MAE. Results Discussion: According to statistical distribution

  18. A Modified Feature Selection and Artificial Neural Network-Based Day-Ahead Load Forecasting Model for a Smart Grid

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ashfaq Ahmad

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available In the operation of a smart grid (SG, day-ahead load forecasting (DLF is an important task. The SG can enhance the management of its conventional and renewable resources with a more accurate DLF model. However, DLF model development is highly challenging due to the non-linear characteristics of load time series in SGs. In the literature, DLF models do exist; however, these models trade off between execution time and forecast accuracy. The newly-proposed DLF model will be able to accurately predict the load of the next day with a fair enough execution time. Our proposed model consists of three modules; the data preparation module, feature selection and the forecast module. The first module makes the historical load curve compatible with the feature selection module. The second module removes redundant and irrelevant features from the input data. The third module, which consists of an artificial neural network (ANN, predicts future load on the basis of selected features. Moreover, the forecast module uses a sigmoid function for activation and a multi-variate auto-regressive model for weight updating during the training process. Simulations are conducted in MATLAB to validate the performance of our newly-proposed DLF model in terms of accuracy and execution time. Results show that our proposed modified feature selection and modified ANN (m(FS + ANN-based model for SGs is able to capture the non-linearity(ies in the history load curve with 97 . 11 % accuracy. Moreover, this accuracy is achieved at the cost of a fair enough execution time, i.e., we have decreased the average execution time of the existing FS + ANN-based model by 38 . 50 % .

  19. Uncertainty analysis of neural network based flood forecasting models: An ensemble based approach for constructing prediction interval

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kasiviswanathan, K.; Sudheer, K.

    2013-05-01

    Artificial neural network (ANN) based hydrologic models have gained lot of attention among water resources engineers and scientists, owing to their potential for accurate prediction of flood flows as compared to conceptual or physics based hydrologic models. The ANN approximates the non-linear functional relationship between the complex hydrologic variables in arriving at the river flow forecast values. Despite a large number of applications, there is still some criticism that ANN's point prediction lacks in reliability since the uncertainty of predictions are not quantified, and it limits its use in practical applications. A major concern in application of traditional uncertainty analysis techniques on neural network framework is its parallel computing architecture with large degrees of freedom, which makes the uncertainty assessment a challenging task. Very limited studies have considered assessment of predictive uncertainty of ANN based hydrologic models. In this study, a novel method is proposed that help construct the prediction interval of ANN flood forecasting model during calibration itself. The method is designed to have two stages of optimization during calibration: at stage 1, the ANN model is trained with genetic algorithm (GA) to obtain optimal set of weights and biases vector, and during stage 2, the optimal variability of ANN parameters (obtained in stage 1) is identified so as to create an ensemble of predictions. During the 2nd stage, the optimization is performed with multiple objectives, (i) minimum residual variance for the ensemble mean, (ii) maximum measured data points to fall within the estimated prediction interval and (iii) minimum width of prediction interval. The method is illustrated using a real world case study of an Indian basin. The method was able to produce an ensemble that has an average prediction interval width of 23.03 m3/s, with 97.17% of the total validation data points (measured) lying within the interval. The derived

  20. Potential assessment of a neural network model with PCA/RBF approach for forecasting pollutant trends in Mong Kok urban air, Hong Kong

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lu, W.-Z.; Wang, W.-J.; Wang, X.-K.; Yan, S.-H.; Lam, Joseph C.

    2004-01-01

    The forecasting of air pollutant trends has received much attention in recent years. It is an important and popular topic in environmental science, as concerns have been raised about the health impacts caused by unacceptable ambient air pollutant levels. Of greatest concern are metropolitan cities like Hong Kong. In Hong Kong, respirable suspended particulates (RSP), nitrogen oxides (NO x ), and nitrogen dioxide (NO 2 ) are major air pollutants due to the dominant usage of diesel fuel by commercial vehicles and buses. Hence, the study of the influence and the trends relating to these pollutants is extremely significant to the public health and the image of the city. The use of neural network techniques to predict trends relating to air pollutants is regarded as a reliable and cost-effective method for the task of prediction. The works reported here involve developing an improved neural network model that combines both the principal component analysis technique and the radial basis function network and forecasts pollutant tendencies based on a recorded database. Compared with general neural network models, the proposed model features a more simple network architecture, a faster training speed, and a more satisfactory prediction performance. The improved model was evaluated with hourly time series of RSP, NO x and NO 2 concentrations monitored at the Mong Kok Roadside Gaseous Monitory Station in Hong Kong during the year 2000 and proved to be effective. The model developed is a potential tool for forecasting air quality parameters and is superior to traditional neural network methods

  1. A Deep Learning Algorithm of Neural Network for the Parameterization of Typhoon-Ocean Feedback in Typhoon Forecast Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jiang, Guo-Qing; Xu, Jing; Wei, Jun

    2018-04-01

    Two algorithms based on machine learning neural networks are proposed—the shallow learning (S-L) and deep learning (D-L) algorithms—that can potentially be used in atmosphere-only typhoon forecast models to provide flow-dependent typhoon-induced sea surface temperature cooling (SSTC) for improving typhoon predictions. The major challenge of existing SSTC algorithms in forecast models is how to accurately predict SSTC induced by an upcoming typhoon, which requires information not only from historical data but more importantly also from the target typhoon itself. The S-L algorithm composes of a single layer of neurons with mixed atmospheric and oceanic factors. Such a structure is found to be unable to represent correctly the physical typhoon-ocean interaction. It tends to produce an unstable SSTC distribution, for which any perturbations may lead to changes in both SSTC pattern and strength. The D-L algorithm extends the neural network to a 4 × 5 neuron matrix with atmospheric and oceanic factors being separated in different layers of neurons, so that the machine learning can determine the roles of atmospheric and oceanic factors in shaping the SSTC. Therefore, it produces a stable crescent-shaped SSTC distribution, with its large-scale pattern determined mainly by atmospheric factors (e.g., winds) and small-scale features by oceanic factors (e.g., eddies). Sensitivity experiments reveal that the D-L algorithms improve maximum wind intensity errors by 60-70% for four case study simulations, compared to their atmosphere-only model runs.

  2. Predicting the Water Level Fluctuation in an Alpine Lake Using Physically Based, Artificial Neural Network, and Time Series Forecasting Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chih-Chieh Young

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Accurate prediction of water level fluctuation is important in lake management due to its significant impacts in various aspects. This study utilizes four model approaches to predict water levels in the Yuan-Yang Lake (YYL in Taiwan: a three-dimensional hydrodynamic model, an artificial neural network (ANN model (back propagation neural network, BPNN, a time series forecasting (autoregressive moving average with exogenous inputs, ARMAX model, and a combined hydrodynamic and ANN model. Particularly, the black-box ANN model and physically based hydrodynamic model are coupled to more accurately predict water level fluctuation. Hourly water level data (a total of 7296 observations was collected for model calibration (training and validation. Three statistical indicators (mean absolute error, root mean square error, and coefficient of correlation were adopted to evaluate model performances. Overall, the results demonstrate that the hydrodynamic model can satisfactorily predict hourly water level changes during the calibration stage but not for the validation stage. The ANN and ARMAX models better predict the water level than the hydrodynamic model does. Meanwhile, the results from an ANN model are superior to those by the ARMAX model in both training and validation phases. The novel proposed concept using a three-dimensional hydrodynamic model in conjunction with an ANN model has clearly shown the improved prediction accuracy for the water level fluctuation.

  3. Monthly water quality forecasting and uncertainty assessment via bootstrapped wavelet neural networks under missing data for Harbin, China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Yi; Zheng, Tong; Zhao, Ying; Jiang, Jiping; Wang, Yuanyuan; Guo, Liang; Wang, Peng

    2013-12-01

    In this paper, bootstrapped wavelet neural network (BWNN) was developed for predicting monthly ammonia nitrogen (NH(4+)-N) and dissolved oxygen (DO) in Harbin region, northeast of China. The Morlet wavelet basis function (WBF) was employed as a nonlinear activation function of traditional three-layer artificial neural network (ANN) structure. Prediction intervals (PI) were constructed according to the calculated uncertainties from the model structure and data noise. Performance of BWNN model was also compared with four different models: traditional ANN, WNN, bootstrapped ANN, and autoregressive integrated moving average model. The results showed that BWNN could handle the severely fluctuating and non-seasonal time series data of water quality, and it produced better performance than the other four models. The uncertainty from data noise was smaller than that from the model structure for NH(4+)-N; conversely, the uncertainty from data noise was larger for DO series. Besides, total uncertainties in the low-flow period were the biggest due to complicated processes during the freeze-up period of the Songhua River. Further, a data missing-refilling scheme was designed, and better performances of BWNNs for structural data missing (SD) were observed than incidental data missing (ID). For both ID and SD, temporal method was satisfactory for filling NH(4+)-N series, whereas spatial imputation was fit for DO series. This filling BWNN forecasting method was applied to other areas suffering "real" data missing, and the results demonstrated its efficiency. Thus, the methods introduced here will help managers to obtain informed decisions.

  4. Using additional external inputs to forecast water quality with an artificial neural network for contamination event detection in source water

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schmidt, F.; Liu, S.

    2016-12-01

    Source water quality plays an important role for the safety of drinking water and early detection of its contamination is vital to taking appropriate countermeasures. However, compared to drinking water, it is more difficult to detect contamination events because its environment is less controlled and numerous natural causes contribute to a high variability of the background values. In this project, Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) and a Contamination Event Detection Process (CED Process) were used to identify events in river water. The ANN models the response of basic water quality sensors obtained in laboratory experiments in an off-line learning stage and continuously forecasts future values of the time line in an on-line forecasting step. During this second stage, the CED Process compares the forecast to the measured value and classifies it as regular background or event value, which modifies the ANN's continuous learning and influences its forecasts. In addition to this basic setup, external information is fed to the CED Process: A so-called Operator Input (OI) is provided to inform about unusual water quality levels that are unrelated to the presence of contamination, for example due to cooling water discharge from a nearby power plant. This study's primary goal is to evaluate how well the OI fits into the design of the combined forecasting ANN and CED Process and to understand its effects on the online forecasting stage. To test this, data from laboratory experiments conducted previously at the School of Environment, Tsinghua University, have been used to perform simulations highlighting features and drawbacks of this method. Applying the OI has been shown to have a positive influence on the ANN's ability to handle a sudden change in background values, which is unrelated to contamination. However, it might also mask the presence of an event, an issue that underlines the necessity to have several instances of the algorithm run in parallel. Other difficulties

  5. Forecasting East Asian Indices Futures via a Novel Hybrid of Wavelet-PCA Denoising and Artificial Neural Network Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-01-01

    The motivation behind this research is to innovatively combine new methods like wavelet, principal component analysis (PCA), and artificial neural network (ANN) approaches to analyze trade in today’s increasingly difficult and volatile financial futures markets. The main focus of this study is to facilitate forecasting by using an enhanced denoising process on market data, taken as a multivariate signal, in order to deduct the same noise from the open-high-low-close signal of a market. This research offers evidence on the predictive ability and the profitability of abnormal returns of a new hybrid forecasting model using Wavelet-PCA denoising and ANN (named WPCA-NN) on futures contracts of Hong Kong’s Hang Seng futures, Japan’s NIKKEI 225 futures, Singapore’s MSCI futures, South Korea’s KOSPI 200 futures, and Taiwan’s TAIEX futures from 2005 to 2014. Using a host of technical analysis indicators consisting of RSI, MACD, MACD Signal, Stochastic Fast %K, Stochastic Slow %K, Stochastic %D, and Ultimate Oscillator, empirical results show that the annual mean returns of WPCA-NN are more than the threshold buy-and-hold for the validation, test, and evaluation periods; this is inconsistent with the traditional random walk hypothesis, which insists that mechanical rules cannot outperform the threshold buy-and-hold. The findings, however, are consistent with literature that advocates technical analysis. PMID:27248692

  6. Application of Convolution Neural Network to the forecasts of flare classification and occurrence using SOHO MDI data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Park, Eunsu; Moon, Yong-Jae

    2017-08-01

    A Convolutional Neural Network(CNN) is one of the well-known deep-learning methods in image processing and computer vision area. In this study, we apply CNN to two kinds of flare forecasting models: flare classification and occurrence. For this, we consider several pre-trained models (e.g., AlexNet, GoogLeNet, and ResNet) and customize them by changing several options such as the number of layers, activation function, and optimizer. Our inputs are the same number of SOHO)/MDI images for each flare class (None, C, M and X) at 00:00 UT from Jan 1996 to Dec 2010 (total 1600 images). Outputs are the results of daily flare forecasting for flare class and occurrence. We build, train, and test the models on TensorFlow, which is well-known machine learning software library developed by Google. Our major results from this study are as follows. First, most of the models have accuracies more than 0.7. Second, ResNet developed by Microsoft has the best accuracies : 0.86 for flare classification and 0.84 for flare occurrence. Third, the accuracies of these models vary greatly with changing parameters. We discuss several possibilities to improve the models.

  7. Application of artificial neural network model for groundwater level forecasting in a river island with artificial influencing factors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Sanghoon; Yoon, Heesung; Park, Byeong-Hak; Lee, Kang-Kun

    2017-04-01

    Groundwater use has been increased for various purposes like agriculture, industry or drinking water in recent years, the issue related to sustainability on the groundwater use also has been raised. Accordingly, forecasting the groundwater level is of great importance for planning sustainable use of groundwater. In a small island surrounded by the Han River, South Korea, seasonal fluctuation of the groundwater level is characterized by multiple factors such as recharge/discharge event of the Paldang dam, Water Curtain Cultivation (WCC) during the winter season, operation of Groundwater Heat Pump System (GWHP). For a period when the dam operation is only occurred in the study area, a prediction of the groundwater level can be easily achieved by a simple cross-correlation model. However, for a period when the WCC and the GWHP systems are working together, the groundwater level prediction is challenging due to its unpredictable operation of the two systems. This study performed Artificial Neural Network (ANN) model to forecast the groundwater level in the river area reflecting the various predictable/unpredictable factors. For constructing the ANN models, two monitoring wells, YSN1 and YSO8, which are located near the injection and abstraction wells for the GWHP system were selected, respectively. By training with the groundwater level data measured in January 2015 to August 2015, response of groundwater level by each of the surface water level, the WCC and the GWHP system were evaluated. Consequentially, groundwater levels in December 2015 to March 2016 were predicted by ANN models, providing optimal fits in comparison to the observed water levels. This study suggests that the ANN model is a useful tool to forecast the groundwater level in terms of the management of groundwater. Acknowledgement : Financial support was provided by the "R&D Project on Environmental Management of Geologic CO2 Storage" from the KEITI (Project Number: 2014001810003) This research was

  8. Optimization of artificial neural network models through genetic algorithms for surface ozone concentration forecasting.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pires, J C M; Gonçalves, B; Azevedo, F G; Carneiro, A P; Rego, N; Assembleia, A J B; Lima, J F B; Silva, P A; Alves, C; Martins, F G

    2012-09-01

    This study proposes three methodologies to define artificial neural network models through genetic algorithms (GAs) to predict the next-day hourly average surface ozone (O(3)) concentrations. GAs were applied to define the activation function in hidden layer and the number of hidden neurons. Two of the methodologies define threshold models, which assume that the behaviour of the dependent variable (O(3) concentrations) changes when it enters in a different regime (two and four regimes were considered in this study). The change from one regime to another depends on a specific value (threshold value) of an explanatory variable (threshold variable), which is also defined by GAs. The predictor variables were the hourly average concentrations of carbon monoxide (CO), nitrogen oxide, nitrogen dioxide (NO(2)), and O(3) (recorded in the previous day at an urban site with traffic influence) and also meteorological data (hourly averages of temperature, solar radiation, relative humidity and wind speed). The study was performed for the period from May to August 2004. Several models were achieved and only the best model of each methodology was analysed. In threshold models, the variables selected by GAs to define the O(3) regimes were temperature, CO and NO(2) concentrations, due to their importance in O(3) chemistry in an urban atmosphere. In the prediction of O(3) concentrations, the threshold model that considers two regimes was the one that fitted the data most efficiently.

  9. Using Artificial Neural Networks to Forecast Trichloroethylene Concentrations at the Paducah Gaseous Diffusion Plant

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kopp, Joshua D [Univ of KY, Dept of Civil Engineering

    2007-05-01

    To determine the future extent of the TCE contamination plume at PGDP, a groundwater and solute transport model has been developed by the Department of Energy (DOE). The model used to perform these calculations is MODFLOWT which is an enhanced groundwater transport model developed by the United States Geological Survey (USGS). MODFLOWT models groundwater movement as well as the transport of species that are subject to adsorption and decay by using a finite difference method (Duffield et al 2001). A significant limitation of MODFLOWT is that it requires large amounts of data. This data can be difficult and expensive to obtain. MODFLOWT also requires excessive computational time to perform one simulation. It is desirable to have a model that can predict the spatial extent of the contaminant plume without as much required data and that does not require excessive computational times. The purpose of this study is to develop and alternative model to MODFLOWT that can produce similar results for possible use in a companion management model. The alternative model used in this study is an artificial neural network (ANN).

  10. A methodology based on dynamic artificial neural network for short-term forecasting of the power output of a PV generator

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Almonacid, F.; Pérez-Higueras, P.J.; Fernández, Eduardo F.; Hontoria, L.

    2014-01-01

    Highlights: • The output of the majority of renewables energies depends on the variability of the weather conditions. • The short-term forecast is going to be essential for effectively integrating solar energy sources. • A new method based on artificial neural network to predict the power output of a PV generator one hour ahead is proposed. • This new method is based on dynamic artificial neural network to predict global solar irradiance and the air temperature. • The methodology developed can be used to estimate the power output of a PV generator with a satisfactory margin of error. - Abstract: One of the problems of some renewables energies is that the output of these kinds of systems is non-dispatchable depending on variability of weather conditions that cannot be predicted and controlled. From this point of view, the short-term forecast is going to be essential for effectively integrating solar energy sources, being a very useful tool for the reliability and stability of the grid ensuring that an adequate supply is present. In this paper a new methodology for forecasting the output of a PV generator one hour ahead based on dynamic artificial neural network is presented. The results of this study show that the proposed methodology could be used to forecast the power output of PV systems one hour ahead with an acceptable degree of accuracy

  11. Day-ahead residential load forecasting with artificial neural network using smart meter data

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Asare-Bediako, B.; Kling, W.L.; Ribeiro, P.F.

    2013-01-01

    Load forecasting is an important operational procedure for the electric industry particularly in a liberalized, deregulated environment. It enables the prediction of utilization of assets, provides input for load/supply balancing and supports optimal energy utilization. Current residential load

  12. Neural Networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Schwindling Jerome

    2010-04-01

    Full Text Available This course presents an overview of the concepts of the neural networks and their aplication in the framework of High energy physics analyses. After a brief introduction on the concept of neural networks, the concept is explained in the frame of neuro-biology, introducing the concept of multi-layer perceptron, learning and their use as data classifer. The concept is then presented in a second part using in more details the mathematical approach focussing on typical use cases faced in particle physics. Finally, the last part presents the best way to use such statistical tools in view of event classifers, putting the emphasis on the setup of the multi-layer perceptron. The full article (15 p. corresponding to this lecture is written in french and is provided in the proceedings of the book SOS 2008.

  13. A methodology of design for a one-variable neural network model to forecast the minimum temperature on the Mosquera zone, Cundimarca, Colombia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bonilla, Jose Ebert; Ramirez, Jairo; Ramirez, Oscar; Leon, Gloria and others

    2006-01-01

    The meteorological phenomena are factors that affect the economy, especially on a country like Colombia, which sustainability is based highly on agricultural products like corns, potato and flowers, plants of a paramour landscape like Bogota savannah. Among this phenomenon is the extreme minimum temperature (frost damage) it is a result of the non-lineal interactions of many atmospheric phenomena, for all that, frost damage forecast is very hard to accomplish with traditional methods. The approach of the project is to process this time series with an artificial neural network; it generals a now casting forecast on the zone of Mosquera

  14. Knowledge-based modularization and global optimization of artificial neural network models in hydrological forecasting.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Corzo, Gerald; Solomatine, Dimitri

    2007-05-01

    Natural phenomena are multistationary and are composed of a number of interacting processes, so one single model handling all processes often suffers from inaccuracies. A solution is to partition data in relation to such processes using the available domain knowledge or expert judgment, to train separate models for each of the processes, and to merge them in a modular model (committee). In this paper a problem of water flow forecast in watershed hydrology is considered where the flow process can be presented as consisting of two subprocesses -- base flow and excess flow, so that these two processes can be separated. Several approaches to data separation techniques are studied. Two case studies with different forecast horizons are considered. Parameters of the algorithms responsible for data partitioning are optimized using genetic algorithms and global pattern search. It was found that modularization of ANN models using domain knowledge makes models more accurate, if compared with a global model trained on the whole data set, especially when forecast horizon (and hence the complexity of the modelled processes) is increased.

  15. Particle swarm optimization based artificial neural network model for forecasting groundwater level in Udupi district

    Science.gov (United States)

    Balavalikar, Supreetha; Nayak, Prabhakar; Shenoy, Narayan; Nayak, Krishnamurthy

    2018-04-01

    The decline in groundwater is a global problem due to increase in population, industries, and environmental aspects such as increase in temperature, decrease in overall rainfall, loss of forests etc. In Udupi district, India, the water source fully depends on the River Swarna for drinking and agriculture purposes. Since the water storage in Bajae dam is declining day-by-day and the people of Udupi district are under immense pressure due to scarcity of drinking water, alternatively depend on ground water. As the groundwater is being heavily used for drinking and agricultural purposes, there is a decline in its water table. Therefore, the groundwater resources must be identified and preserved for human survival. This research proposes a data driven approach for forecasting the groundwater level. The monthly variations in groundwater level and rainfall data in three observation wells located in Brahmavar, Kundapur and Hebri were investigated and the scenarios were examined for 2000-2013. The focus of this research work is to develop an ANN based groundwater level forecasting model and compare with hybrid ANN-PSO forecasting model. The model parameters are tested using different combinations of the data. The results reveal that PSO-ANN based hybrid model gives a better prediction accuracy, than ANN alone.

  16. A Hybrid Forecasting Model Based on Bivariate Division and a Backpropagation Artificial Neural Network Optimized by Chaos Particle Swarm Optimization for Day-Ahead Electricity Price

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhilong Wang

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available In the electricity market, the electricity price plays an inevitable role. Nevertheless, accurate price forecasting, a vital factor affecting both government regulatory agencies and public power companies, remains a huge challenge and a critical problem. Determining how to address the accurate forecasting problem becomes an even more significant task in an era in which electricity is increasingly important. Based on the chaos particle swarm optimization (CPSO, the backpropagation artificial neural network (BPANN, and the idea of bivariate division, this paper proposes a bivariate division BPANN (BD-BPANN method and the CPSO-BD-BPANN method for forecasting electricity price. The former method creatively transforms the electricity demand and price to be a new variable, named DV, which is calculated using the division principle, to forecast the day-ahead electricity by multiplying the forecasted values of the DVs and forecasted values of the demand. Next, to improve the accuracy of BD-BPANN, chaos particle swarm optimization and BD-BPANN are synthesized to form a novel model, CPSO-BD-BPANN. In this study, CPSO is utilized to optimize the initial parameters of BD-BPANN to make its output more stable than the original model. Finally, two forecasting strategies are proposed regarding different situations.

  17. Forecasting carbon dioxide emissions based on a hybrid of mixed data sampling regression model and back propagation neural network in the USA.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Xin; Han, Meng; Ding, Lili; Calin, Adrian Cantemir

    2018-01-01

    The accurate forecast of carbon dioxide emissions is critical for policy makers to take proper measures to establish a low carbon society. This paper discusses a hybrid of the mixed data sampling (MIDAS) regression model and BP (back propagation) neural network (MIDAS-BP model) to forecast carbon dioxide emissions. Such analysis uses mixed frequency data to study the effects of quarterly economic growth on annual carbon dioxide emissions. The forecasting ability of MIDAS-BP is remarkably better than MIDAS, ordinary least square (OLS), polynomial distributed lags (PDL), autoregressive distributed lags (ADL), and auto-regressive moving average (ARMA) models. The MIDAS-BP model is suitable for forecasting carbon dioxide emissions for both the short and longer term. This research is expected to influence the methodology for forecasting carbon dioxide emissions by improving the forecast accuracy. Empirical results show that economic growth has both negative and positive effects on carbon dioxide emissions that last 15 quarters. Carbon dioxide emissions are also affected by their own change within 3 years. Therefore, there is a need for policy makers to explore an alternative way to develop the economy, especially applying new energy policies to establish a low carbon society.

  18. Artificial Neural Network for Short-Term Load Forecasting in Distribution Systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Luis Hernández

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available The new paradigms and latest developments in the Electrical Grid are based on the introduction of distributed intelligence at several stages of its physical layer, giving birth to concepts such as Smart Grids, Virtual Power Plants, microgrids, Smart Buildings and Smart Environments. Distributed Generation (DG is a philosophy in which energy is no longer produced exclusively in huge centralized plants, but also in smaller premises which take advantage of local conditions in order to minimize transmission losses and optimize production and consumption. This represents a new opportunity for renewable energy, because small elements such as solar panels and wind turbines are expected to be scattered along the grid, feeding local installations or selling energy to the grid depending on their local generation/consumption conditions. The introduction of these highly dynamic elements will lead to a substantial change in the curves of demanded energy. The aim of this paper is to apply Short-Term Load Forecasting (STLF in microgrid environments with curves and similar behaviours, using two different data sets: the first one packing electricity consumption information during four years and six months in a microgrid along with calendar data, while the second one will be just four months of the previous parameters along with the solar radiation from the site. For the first set of data different STLF models will be discussed, studying the effect of each variable, in order to identify the best one. That model will be employed with the second set of data, in order to make a comparison with a new model that takes into account the solar radiation, since the photovoltaic installations of the microgrid will cause the power demand to fluctuate depending on the solar radiation.

  19. Day-Ahead Natural Gas Demand Forecasting Using Optimized ABC-Based Neural Network with Sliding Window Technique: The Case Study of Regional Basis in Turkey

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mustafa Akpinar

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available The increase of energy consumption in the world is reflected in the consumption of natural gas. However, this increment requires additional investment. This effect leads imbalances in terms of demand forecasting, such as applying penalties in the case of error rates occurring beyond the acceptable limits. As the forecasting errors increase, penalties increase exponentially. Therefore, the optimal use of natural gas as a scarce resource is important. There are various demand forecast ranges for natural gas and the most difficult range among these demands is the day-ahead forecasting, since it is hard to implement and makes predictions with low error rates. The objective of this study is stabilizing gas tractions on day-ahead demand forecasting using low-consuming subscriber data for minimizing error using univariate artificial bee colony-based artificial neural networks (ANN-ABC. For this purpose, households and low-consuming commercial users’ four-year consumption data between the years of 2011–2014 are gathered in daily periods. Previous consumption values are used to forecast day-ahead consumption values with sliding window technique and other independent variables are not taken into account. Dataset is divided into two parts. First, three-year daily consumption values are used with a seven day window for training the networks, while the last year is used for the day-ahead demand forecasting. Results show that ANN-ABC is a strong, stable, and effective method with a low error rate of 14.9 mean absolute percentage error (MAPE for training utilizing MAPE with a univariate sliding window technique.

  20. Load forecasting using different architectures of neural networks with the assistance of the MATLAB toolboxes; Previsao de cargas eletricas utilizando diferentes arquiteturas de redes neurais artificiais com o auxilio das toolboxes do MATLAB

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nose Filho, Kenji; Araujo, Klayton A.M.; Maeda, Jorge L.Y.; Lotufo, Anna Diva P. [Universidade Estadual Paulista Julio de Mesquita Filho (UNESP), Ilha Solteira, SP (Brazil)], Emails: kenjinose@yahoo.com.br, klayton_ama@hotmail.com, jorge-maeda@hotmail.com, annadiva@dee.feis.unesp.br

    2009-07-01

    This paper presents a development and implementation of a program to electrical load forecasting with data from a Brazilian electrical company, using four different architectures of neural networks of the MATLAB toolboxes: multilayer backpropagation gradient descendent with momentum, multilayer backpropagation Levenberg-Marquardt, adaptive network based fuzzy inference system and general regression neural network. The program presented a satisfactory performance, guaranteeing very good results. (author)

  1. A method of optimized neural network by L-M algorithm to transformer winding hot spot temperature forecasting

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wei, B. G.; Wu, X. Y.; Yao, Z. F.; Huang, H.

    2017-11-01

    Transformers are essential devices of the power system. The accurate computation of the highest temperature (HST) of a transformer’s windings is very significant, as for the HST is a fundamental parameter in controlling the load operation mode and influencing the life time of the insulation. Based on the analysis of the heat transfer processes and the thermal characteristics inside transformers, there is taken into consideration the influence of factors like the sunshine, external wind speed etc. on the oil-immersed transformers. Experimental data and the neural network are used for modeling and protesting of the HST, and furthermore, investigations are conducted on the optimization of the structure and algorithms of neutral network are conducted. Comparison is made between the measured values and calculated values by using the recommended algorithm of IEC60076 and by using the neural network algorithm proposed by the authors; comparison that shows that the value computed with the neural network algorithm approximates better the measured value than the value computed with the algorithm proposed by IEC60076.

  2. A comparative study of artificial neural network, adaptive neuro fuzzy inference system and support vector machine for forecasting river flow in the semiarid mountain region

    Science.gov (United States)

    He, Zhibin; Wen, Xiaohu; Liu, Hu; Du, Jun

    2014-02-01

    Data driven models are very useful for river flow forecasting when the underlying physical relationships are not fully understand, but it is not clear whether these data driven models still have a good performance in the small river basin of semiarid mountain regions where have complicated topography. In this study, the potential of three different data driven methods, artificial neural network (ANN), adaptive neuro fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) and support vector machine (SVM) were used for forecasting river flow in the semiarid mountain region, northwestern China. The models analyzed different combinations of antecedent river flow values and the appropriate input vector has been selected based on the analysis of residuals. The performance of the ANN, ANFIS and SVM models in training and validation sets are compared with the observed data. The model which consists of three antecedent values of flow has been selected as the best fit model for river flow forecasting. To get more accurate evaluation of the results of ANN, ANFIS and SVM models, the four quantitative standard statistical performance evaluation measures, the coefficient of correlation (R), root mean squared error (RMSE), Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient (NS) and mean absolute relative error (MARE), were employed to evaluate the performances of various models developed. The results indicate that the performance obtained by ANN, ANFIS and SVM in terms of different evaluation criteria during the training and validation period does not vary substantially; the performance of the ANN, ANFIS and SVM models in river flow forecasting was satisfactory. A detailed comparison of the overall performance indicated that the SVM model performed better than ANN and ANFIS in river flow forecasting for the validation data sets. The results also suggest that ANN, ANFIS and SVM method can be successfully applied to establish river flow with complicated topography forecasting models in the semiarid mountain regions.

  3. Morphological neural networks

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ritter, G.X.; Sussner, P. [Univ. of Florida, Gainesville, FL (United States)

    1996-12-31

    The theory of artificial neural networks has been successfully applied to a wide variety of pattern recognition problems. In this theory, the first step in computing the next state of a neuron or in performing the next layer neural network computation involves the linear operation of multiplying neural values by their synaptic strengths and adding the results. Thresholding usually follows the linear operation in order to provide for nonlinearity of the network. In this paper we introduce a novel class of neural networks, called morphological neural networks, in which the operations of multiplication and addition are replaced by addition and maximum (or minimum), respectively. By taking the maximum (or minimum) of sums instead of the sum of products, morphological network computation is nonlinear before thresholding. As a consequence, the properties of morphological neural networks are drastically different than those of traditional neural network models. In this paper we consider some of these differences and provide some particular examples of morphological neural network.

  4. Mode Choice Modeling Using Artificial Neural Networks

    OpenAIRE

    Edara, Praveen Kumar

    2003-01-01

    Artificial intelligence techniques have produced excellent results in many diverse fields of engineering. Techniques such as neural networks and fuzzy systems have found their way into transportation engineering. In recent years, neural networks are being used instead of regression techniques for travel demand forecasting purposes. The basic reason lies in the fact that neural networks are able to capture complex relationships and learn from examples and also able to adapt when new data becom...

  5. A 24-h forecast of solar irradiance using artificial neural network: Application for performance prediction of a grid-connected PV plant at Trieste, Italy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mellit, Adel [Department of Electronics, Faculty of Sciences and Technology, LAMEL, Jijel University, Ouled-aissa, P.O. Box 98, Jijel 18000 (Algeria); Pavan, Alessandro Massi [Department of Materials and Natural Resources, University of Trieste Via A. Valerio, 2 - 34127 Trieste (Italy)

    2010-05-15

    Forecasting of solar irradiance is in general significant for planning the operations of power plants which convert renewable energies into electricity. In particular, the possibility to predict the solar irradiance (up to 24 h or even more) can became - with reference to the Grid Connected Photovoltaic Plants (GCPV) - fundamental in making power dispatching plans and - with reference to stand alone and hybrid systems - also a useful reference for improving the control algorithms of charge controllers. In this paper, a practical method for solar irradiance forecast using artificial neural network (ANN) is presented. The proposed Multilayer Perceptron MLP-model makes it possible to forecast the solar irradiance on a base of 24 h using the present values of the mean daily solar irradiance and air temperature. An experimental database of solar irradiance and air temperature data (from July 1st 2008 to May 23rd 2009 and from November 23rd 2009 to January 24th 2010) has been used. The database has been collected in Trieste (latitude 45 40'N, longitude 13 46'E), Italy. In order to check the generalization capability of the MLP-forecaster, a K-fold cross-validation was carried out. The results indicate that the proposed model performs well, while the correlation coefficient is in the range 98-99% for sunny days and 94-96% for cloudy days. As an application, the comparison between the forecasted one and the energy produced by the GCPV plant installed on the rooftop of the municipality of Trieste shows the goodness of the proposed model. (author)

  6. Genetic algorithm for neural networks optimization

    Science.gov (United States)

    Setyawati, Bina R.; Creese, Robert C.; Sahirman, Sidharta

    2004-11-01

    This paper examines the forecasting performance of multi-layer feed forward neural networks in modeling a particular foreign exchange rates, i.e. Japanese Yen/US Dollar. The effects of two learning methods, Back Propagation and Genetic Algorithm, in which the neural network topology and other parameters fixed, were investigated. The early results indicate that the application of this hybrid system seems to be well suited for the forecasting of foreign exchange rates. The Neural Networks and Genetic Algorithm were programmed using MATLAB«.

  7. Forecasting annual gross electricity demand by artificial neural networks using predicted values of socio-economic indicators and climatic conditions: Case of Turkey

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Günay, M. Erdem

    2016-01-01

    In this work, the annual gross electricity demand of Turkey was modeled by multiple linear regression and artificial neural networks as a function population, gross domestic product per capita, inflation percentage, unemployment percentage, average summer temperature and average winter temperature. Among these, the unemployment percentage and the average winter temperature were found to be insignificant to determine the demand for the years between 1975 and 2013. Next, the future values of the statistically significant variables were predicted by time series ANN models, and these were simulated in a multilayer perceptron ANN model to forecast the future annual electricity demand. The results were validated with a very high accuracy for the years that the electricity demand was known (2007–2013), and they were also superior to the official predictions (done by Ministry of Energy and Natural Resources of Turkey). The model was then used to forecast the annual gross electricity demand for the future years, and it was found that, the demand will be doubled reaching about 460 TW h in the year 2028. Finally, it was concluded that the approach applied in this work can easily be implemented for other countries to make accurate predictions for the future. - Highlights: • Electricity demand of Turkey increased from 15.6 to 246.4 TW h in 1975–2013 period. • Population, GDP per capita, inflation and average summer temperature influence demand. • Future values of descriptor variables can be predicted by time series ANN models. • ANN model simulated by the predicted values of descriptors can forecast the demand. • Demand is forecasted to be doubled reaching about 460 TW h in the year 2028.

  8. Artificial intelligence approach with the use of artificial neural networks for the creation of a forecasting model of Plasmopara viticola infection.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bugliosi, R; Spera, G; La Torre, A; Campoli, L; Scaglione, M

    2006-01-01

    Most of the forecasting models of Plasmopara viticola infections are based upon empiric correlations between meteorological/environmental data and pathogen outbreak. These models generally overestimate the risk of infections and induce to treat the vineyard even if it should be not necessary. In rare cases they underrate the risk of infection leaving the pathogen to breakout. Starting from these considerations we have decided to approach the problem from another point of view utilizing Artificial Intelligence techniques for data elaboration and analysis. Meanwhile the same data have been studied with a more classic approach with statistical tools to verify the impact of a large data collection on the standard data analysis methods. A network of RTUs (Remote Terminal Units) distributed all over the Italian national territory transmits 12 environmental parameters every 15 minutes via radio or via GPRS to a centralized Data Base. Other pedologic data is collected directly from the field and sent via Internet to the centralized data base utilizing Personal Digital Assistants (PDAs) running a specific software. Data is stored after having been preprocessed, to guarantee the quality of the information. The subsequent analysis has been realized mostly with Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs). Collecting and analizing data in this way will probably bring us to the possibility of preventing Plasmospara viticola infection starting from the environmental conditions in this very complex context. The aim of this work is to forecast the infection avoiding the ineffective use of the plant protection products in agriculture. Applying different analysis models we will try to find the best ANN capable of forecasting with an high level of affordability.

  9. Chaotic diagonal recurrent neural network

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wang Xing-Yuan; Zhang Yi

    2012-01-01

    We propose a novel neural network based on a diagonal recurrent neural network and chaos, and its structure and learning algorithm are designed. The multilayer feedforward neural network, diagonal recurrent neural network, and chaotic diagonal recurrent neural network are used to approach the cubic symmetry map. The simulation results show that the approximation capability of the chaotic diagonal recurrent neural network is better than the other two neural networks. (interdisciplinary physics and related areas of science and technology)

  10. Improving short-term forecasting during ramp events by means of Regime-Switching Artificial Neural Networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gallego, C.; Costa, A.; Cuerva, A.

    2010-09-01

    Since nowadays wind energy can't be neither scheduled nor large-scale storaged, wind power forecasting has been useful to minimize the impact of wind fluctuations. In particular, short-term forecasting (characterised by prediction horizons from minutes to a few days) is currently required by energy producers (in a daily electricity market context) and the TSO's (in order to keep the stability/balance of an electrical system). Within the short-term background, time-series based models (i.e., statistical models) have shown a better performance than NWP models for horizons up to few hours. These models try to learn and replicate the dynamic shown by the time series of a certain variable. When considering the power output of wind farms, ramp events are usually observed, being characterized by a large positive gradient in the time series (ramp-up) or negative (ramp-down) during relatively short time periods (few hours). Ramp events may be motivated by many different causes, involving generally several spatial scales, since the large scale (fronts, low pressure systems) up to the local scale (wind turbine shut-down due to high wind speed, yaw misalignment due to fast changes of wind direction). Hence, the output power may show unexpected dynamics during ramp events depending on the underlying processes; consequently, traditional statistical models considering only one dynamic for the hole power time series may be inappropriate. This work proposes a Regime Switching (RS) model based on Artificial Neural Nets (ANN). The RS-ANN model gathers as many ANN's as different dynamics considered (called regimes); a certain ANN is selected so as to predict the output power, depending on the current regime. The current regime is on-line updated based on a gradient criteria, regarding the past two values of the output power. 3 Regimes are established, concerning ramp events: ramp-up, ramp-down and no-ramp regime. In order to assess the skillness of the proposed RS-ANN model, a single

  11. A stock market forecasting model combining two-directional two-dimensional principal component analysis and radial basis function neural network.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guo, Zhiqiang; Wang, Huaiqing; Yang, Jie; Miller, David J

    2015-01-01

    In this paper, we propose and implement a hybrid model combining two-directional two-dimensional principal component analysis ((2D)2PCA) and a Radial Basis Function Neural Network (RBFNN) to forecast stock market behavior. First, 36 stock market technical variables are selected as the input features, and a sliding window is used to obtain the input data of the model. Next, (2D)2PCA is utilized to reduce the dimension of the data and extract its intrinsic features. Finally, an RBFNN accepts the data processed by (2D)2PCA to forecast the next day's stock price or movement. The proposed model is used on the Shanghai stock market index, and the experiments show that the model achieves a good level of fitness. The proposed model is then compared with one that uses the traditional dimension reduction method principal component analysis (PCA) and independent component analysis (ICA). The empirical results show that the proposed model outperforms the PCA-based model, as well as alternative models based on ICA and on the multilayer perceptron.

  12. Establishment of turbidity forecasting model and early-warning system for source water turbidity management using back-propagation artificial neural network algorithm and probability analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Tsung-Ming; Fan, Shu-Kai; Fan, Chihhao; Hsu, Nien-Sheng

    2014-08-01

    The purpose of this study is to establish a turbidity forecasting model as well as an early-warning system for turbidity management using rainfall records as the input variables. The Taipei Water Source Domain was employed as the study area, and ANOVA analysis showed that the accumulative rainfall records of 1-day Ping-lin, 2-day Ping-lin, 2-day Fei-tsui, 2-day Shi-san-gu, 2-day Tai-pin and 2-day Tong-hou were the six most significant parameters for downstream turbidity development. The artificial neural network model was developed and proven capable of predicting the turbidity concentration in the investigated catchment downstream area. The observed and model-calculated turbidity data were applied to developing the turbidity early-warning system. Using a previously determined turbidity as the threshold, the rainfall criterion, above which the downstream turbidity would possibly exceed this respective threshold turbidity, for the investigated rain gauge stations was determined. An exemplary illustration demonstrated the effectiveness of the proposed turbidity early-warning system as a precautionary alarm of possible significant increase of downstream turbidity. This study is the first report of the establishment of the turbidity early-warning system. Hopefully, this system can be applied to source water turbidity forecasting during storm events and provide a useful reference for subsequent adjustment of drinking water treatment operation.

  13. Artificial neural networks environmental forecasting in comparison with multiple linear regression technique: From heavy metals to organic micropollutants screening in agricultural soils

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bonelli, Maria Grazia; Ferrini, Mauro; Manni, Andrea

    2016-12-01

    The assessment of metals and organic micropollutants contamination in agricultural soils is a difficult challenge due to the extensive area used to collect and analyze a very large number of samples. With Dioxins and dioxin-like PCBs measurement methods and subsequent the treatment of data, the European Community advises the develop low-cost and fast methods allowing routing analysis of a great number of samples, providing rapid measurement of these compounds in the environment, feeds and food. The aim of the present work has been to find a method suitable to describe the relations occurring between organic and inorganic contaminants and use the value of the latter in order to forecast the former. In practice, the use of a metal portable soil analyzer coupled with an efficient statistical procedure enables the required objective to be achieved. Compared to Multiple Linear Regression, the Artificial Neural Networks technique has shown to be an excellent forecasting method, though there is no linear correlation between the variables to be analyzed.

  14. Forecasting of a ground-coupled heat pump performance using neural networks with statistical data weighting pre-processing

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Esen, Hikmet; Esen, Mehmet [Department of Mechanical Education, Faculty of Technical Education, Firat University, 23119 Elazig (Turkey); Inalli, Mustafa [Department of Mechanical Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, Firat University, 23279 Elazig (Turkey); Sengur, Abdulkadir [Department of Electronic and Computer Science, Faculty of Technical Education, Firat University, 23119 Elazig (Turkey)

    2008-04-15

    The objective of this work is to improve the performance of an artificial neural network (ANN) with a statistical weighted pre-processing (SWP) method to learn to predict ground source heat pump (GCHP) systems with the minimum data set. Experimental studies were completed to obtain training and test data. Air temperatures entering/leaving condenser unit, water-antifreeze solution entering/leaving the horizontal ground heat exchangers and ground temperatures (1 and 2 m) were used as input layer, while the output is coefficient of performance (COP) of system. Some statistical methods, such as the root-mean squared (RMS), the coefficient of multiple determinations (R{sup 2}) and the coefficient of variation (cov) is used to compare predicted and actual values for model validation. It is found that RMS value is 0.074, R{sup 2} value is 0.9999 and cov value is 2.22 for SCG6 algorithm of only ANN structure. It is also found that RMS value is 0.002, R{sup 2} value is 0.9999 and cov value is 0.076 for SCG6 algorithm of SWP-ANN structure. The simulation results show that the SWP based networks can be used an alternative way in these systems. Therefore, instead of limited experimental data found in literature, faster and simpler solutions are obtained using hybridized structures such as SWP-ANN. (author)

  15. A PERFORMANCE COMPARISON BETWEEN ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORKS AND MULTIVARIATE STATISTICAL METHODS IN FORECASTING FINANCIAL STRENGTH RATING IN TURKISH BANKING SECTOR

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    MELEK ACAR BOYACIOĞLU

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available Financial strength rating indicates the fundamental financial strength of a bank. The aim of financial strength rating is to measure a bank’s fundamental financial strength excluding the external factors. External factors can stem from the working environment or can be linked with the outside protective support mechanisms. With the evaluation, the rating of a bank free from outside supportive factors is being sought. Also the financial fundamental, franchise value, the variety of assets and working environment of a bank are being evaluated in this context. In this study, a model has been developed in order to predict the financial strength rating of Turkish banks. The methodology of this study is as follows: Selecting variables to be used in the model, creating a data set, choosing the techniques to be used and the evaluation of classification success of the techniques. It is concluded that the artificial neural network system shows a better performance in terms of classification of financial strength rating in comparison to multivariate statistical methods in the raining set. On the other hand, there is no meaningful difference could be found in the validation set in which the prediction performances of the employed techniques are tested.

  16. Neural Networks: Implementations and Applications

    OpenAIRE

    Vonk, E.; Veelenturf, L.P.J.; Jain, L.C.

    1996-01-01

    Artificial neural networks, also called neural networks, have been used successfully in many fields including engineering, science and business. This paper presents the implementation of several neural network simulators and their applications in character recognition and other engineering areas

  17. Short-Term Price Forecasting Models Based on Artificial Neural Networks for Intraday Sessions in the Iberian Electricity Market

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Claudio Monteiro

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents novel intraday session models for price forecasts (ISMPF models for hourly price forecasting in the six intraday sessions of the Iberian electricity market (MIBEL and the analysis of mean absolute percentage errors (MAPEs obtained with suitable combinations of their input variables in order to find the best ISMPF models. Comparisons of errors from different ISMPF models identified the most important variables for forecasting purposes. Similar analyses were applied to determine the best daily session models for price forecasts (DSMPF models for the day-ahead price forecasting in the daily session of the MIBEL, considering as input variables extensive hourly time series records of recent prices, power demands and power generations in the previous day, forecasts of demand, wind power generation and weather for the day-ahead, and chronological variables. ISMPF models include the input variables of DSMPF models as well as the daily session prices and prices of preceding intraday sessions. The best ISMPF models achieved lower MAPEs for most of the intraday sessions compared to the error of the best DSMPF model; furthermore, such DSMPF error was very close to the lowest limit error for the daily session. The best ISMPF models can be useful for MIBEL agents of the electricity intraday market and the electric energy industry.

  18. Artificial Neural Network forecasting of storm surge water levels at major estuarine ports to supplement national tide-surge models and improve port resilience planning

    Science.gov (United States)

    French, Jon; Mawdsley, Robert; Fujiyama, Taku; Achuthan, Kamal

    2017-04-01

    Effective prediction of tidal storm surge is of considerable importance for operators of major ports, since much of their infrastructure is necessarily located close to sea level. Storm surge inundation can damage critical elements of this infrastructure and significantly disrupt port operations and downstream supply chains. The risk of surge inundation is typically approached using extreme value analysis, while short-term forecasting generally relies on coastal shelf-scale tide and surge models. However, extreme value analysis does not provide information on the duration of a surge event and can be sensitive to the assumptions made and the historic data available. Also, whilst regional tide and surge models perform well along open coasts, their fairly coarse spatial resolution means that they do not always provide accurate predictions for estuarine ports. As part of a NERC Environmental Risks to Infrastructure Innovation Programme project, we have developed a tool that is specifically designed to forecast the North Sea storm surges on major ports along the east coast of the UK. Of particular interest is the Port of Immingham, Humber estuary, which handles the largest volume of bulk cargo in the UK including major flows of coal and biomass for power generation. A tidal surge in December 2013, with an estimated return period of 760 years, partly flooded the port, damaged infrastructure and disrupted operations for several weeks. This and other recent surge events highlight the need for additional tools to supplement the national UK Storm Tide Warning Service. Port operators are also keen to have access to less computationally expensive forecasting tools for scenario planning and to improve their resilience to actual events. In this paper, we demonstrate the potential of machine learning methods based on Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) to generate accurate short-term forecasts of extreme water levels at estuarine North Sea ports such as Immingham. An ANN is

  19. A Novel Hybrid Data-Driven Model for Daily Land Surface Temperature Forecasting Using Long Short-Term Memory Neural Network Based on Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xike Zhang

    2018-05-01

    Full Text Available Daily land surface temperature (LST forecasting is of great significance for application in climate-related, agricultural, eco-environmental, or industrial studies. Hybrid data-driven prediction models using Ensemble Empirical Mode Composition (EEMD coupled with Machine Learning (ML algorithms are useful for achieving these purposes because they can reduce the difficulty of modeling, require less history data, are easy to develop, and are less complex than physical models. In this article, a computationally simple, less data-intensive, fast and efficient novel hybrid data-driven model called the EEMD Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM neural network, namely EEMD-LSTM, is proposed to reduce the difficulty of modeling and to improve prediction accuracy. The daily LST data series from the Mapoling and Zhijaing stations in the Dongting Lake basin, central south China, from 1 January 2014 to 31 December 2016 is used as a case study. The EEMD is firstly employed to decompose the original daily LST data series into many Intrinsic Mode Functions (IMFs and a single residue item. Then, the Partial Autocorrelation Function (PACF is used to obtain the number of input data sample points for LSTM models. Next, the LSTM models are constructed to predict the decompositions. All the predicted results of the decompositions are aggregated as the final daily LST. Finally, the prediction performance of the hybrid EEMD-LSTM model is assessed in terms of the Mean Square Error (MSE, Mean Absolute Error (MAE, Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE, Root Mean Square Error (RMSE, Pearson Correlation Coefficient (CC and Nash-Sutcliffe Coefficient of Efficiency (NSCE. To validate the hybrid data-driven model, the hybrid EEMD-LSTM model is compared with the Recurrent Neural Network (RNN, LSTM and Empirical Mode Decomposition (EMD coupled with RNN, EMD-LSTM and EEMD-RNN models, and their comparison results demonstrate that the hybrid EEMD-LSTM model performs better than the other

  20. A Novel Hybrid Data-Driven Model for Daily Land Surface Temperature Forecasting Using Long Short-Term Memory Neural Network Based on Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Xike; Zhang, Qiuwen; Zhang, Gui; Nie, Zhiping; Gui, Zifan; Que, Huafei

    2018-05-21

    Daily land surface temperature (LST) forecasting is of great significance for application in climate-related, agricultural, eco-environmental, or industrial studies. Hybrid data-driven prediction models using Ensemble Empirical Mode Composition (EEMD) coupled with Machine Learning (ML) algorithms are useful for achieving these purposes because they can reduce the difficulty of modeling, require less history data, are easy to develop, and are less complex than physical models. In this article, a computationally simple, less data-intensive, fast and efficient novel hybrid data-driven model called the EEMD Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) neural network, namely EEMD-LSTM, is proposed to reduce the difficulty of modeling and to improve prediction accuracy. The daily LST data series from the Mapoling and Zhijaing stations in the Dongting Lake basin, central south China, from 1 January 2014 to 31 December 2016 is used as a case study. The EEMD is firstly employed to decompose the original daily LST data series into many Intrinsic Mode Functions (IMFs) and a single residue item. Then, the Partial Autocorrelation Function (PACF) is used to obtain the number of input data sample points for LSTM models. Next, the LSTM models are constructed to predict the decompositions. All the predicted results of the decompositions are aggregated as the final daily LST. Finally, the prediction performance of the hybrid EEMD-LSTM model is assessed in terms of the Mean Square Error (MSE), Mean Absolute Error (MAE), Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE), Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), Pearson Correlation Coefficient (CC) and Nash-Sutcliffe Coefficient of Efficiency (NSCE). To validate the hybrid data-driven model, the hybrid EEMD-LSTM model is compared with the Recurrent Neural Network (RNN), LSTM and Empirical Mode Decomposition (EMD) coupled with RNN, EMD-LSTM and EEMD-RNN models, and their comparison results demonstrate that the hybrid EEMD-LSTM model performs better than the other five

  1. Wavelet-based multi-resolution analysis and artificial neural networks for forecasting temperature and thermal power consumption

    OpenAIRE

    Eynard , Julien; Grieu , Stéphane; Polit , Monique

    2011-01-01

    15 pages; International audience; As part of the OptiEnR research project, the present paper deals with outdoor temperature and thermal power consumption forecasting. This project focuses on optimizing the functioning of a multi-energy district boiler (La Rochelle, west coast of France), adding to the plant a thermal storage unit and implementing a model-based predictive controller. The proposed short-term forecast method is based on the concept of time series and uses both a wavelet-based mu...

  2. A Modified Feature Selection and Artificial Neural Network-Based Day-Ahead Load Forecasting Model for a Smart Grid

    OpenAIRE

    Ahmad, Ashfaq; Javaid, Nadeem; Alrajeh, Nabil; Khan, Zahoor; Qasim, Umar; Khan, Abid

    2015-01-01

    In the operation of a smart grid (SG), day-ahead load forecasting (DLF) is an important task. The SG can enhance the management of its conventional and renewable resources with a more accurate DLF model. However, DLF model development is highly challenging due to the non-linear characteristics of load time series in SGs. In the literature, DLF models do exist; however, these models trade off between execution time and forecast accuracy. The newly-proposed DLF model will be able to accurately ...

  3. Forecast of Wind Speed with a Backpropagation Artificial Neural Network in the Isthmus of Tehuantepec Region in the State of Oaxaca, Mexico

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Orlando Lastres Danguillecourt

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available Este trabajo presenta los resultados preliminares de la configuración de una red neuronal artificial (ANN, de tipo alimentación hacia adelante con el método de entrenamiento de retro-propagación para pronosticar la velocidad de viento en la región del Istmo de Tehuantepec, Oaxaca, México. La base de datos utilizada abarca los años comprendidos entre Junio 2008- Noviembre 2011, y fue suministrada por una estación meteorológica ubicada en la Universidad del Istmo campus Tehuantepec. Los experimentos se realizaron utilizando las siguientes variables: velocidad del viento, presión, temperatura y fecha. Al mismo tiempo se hicieron siete pruebas combinando estas variables, comparando su error cuadrático medio (MSE y el coeficiente de correlación r, con los datos de predicción y experimentales. En esta investigación, se propone una ANN de dos capas ocultas, para un pronóstico de 48 horas.This paper presents the preliminary results of setting up an artificial neural network (ANN of the feed forward type with the backpropagation training method for forecast wind speed in the region in the Isthmus of Tehuantepec, Oaxaca, Mexico. The database used covers the years from June 2008 - November 2011, and was supplied by a meteorological station located at the Isthmus University campus Tehuantepec. The experiments were done using the following variables: wind speed, pressure, temperature and date. At the same time were done seven tests combining these variables, comparing their mean square error (MSE and coefficient correlation r, with data the predicting and experimental. In this research, is proposed a ANN of two hidden layers, for a forecast of 48 hours.

  4. Hidden neural networks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Krogh, Anders Stærmose; Riis, Søren Kamaric

    1999-01-01

    A general framework for hybrids of hidden Markov models (HMMs) and neural networks (NNs) called hidden neural networks (HNNs) is described. The article begins by reviewing standard HMMs and estimation by conditional maximum likelihood, which is used by the HNN. In the HNN, the usual HMM probability...... parameters are replaced by the outputs of state-specific neural networks. As opposed to many other hybrids, the HNN is normalized globally and therefore has a valid probabilistic interpretation. All parameters in the HNN are estimated simultaneously according to the discriminative conditional maximum...... likelihood criterion. The HNN can be viewed as an undirected probabilistic independence network (a graphical model), where the neural networks provide a compact representation of the clique functions. An evaluation of the HNN on the task of recognizing broad phoneme classes in the TIMIT database shows clear...

  5. A methodology for extracting knowledge rules from artificial neural networks applied to forecast demand for electric power; Uma metodologia para extracao de regras de conhecimento a partir de redes neurais artificiais aplicadas para previsao de demanda por energia eletrica

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Steinmetz, Tarcisio; Souza, Glauber; Ferreira, Sandro; Santos, Jose V. Canto dos; Valiati, Joao [Universidade do Vale do Rio dos Sinos (PIPCA/UNISINOS), Sao Leopoldo, RS (Brazil). Programa de Pos-Graduacao em Computacao Aplicada], Emails: trsteinmetz@unisinos.br, gsouza@unisinos.br, sferreira, jvcanto@unisinos.br, jfvaliati@unisinos.br

    2009-07-01

    We present a methodology for the extraction of rules from Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) trained to forecast the electric load demand. The rules have the ability to express the knowledge regarding the behavior of load demand acquired by the ANN during the training process. The rules are presented to the user in an easy to read format, such as IF premise THEN consequence. Where premise relates to the input data submitted to the ANN (mapped as fuzzy sets), and consequence appears as a linear equation describing the output to be presented by the ANN, should the premise part holds true. Experimentation demonstrates the method's capacity for acquiring and presenting high quality rules from neural networks trained to forecast electric load demand for several amounts of time in the future. (author)

  6. Neural networks for aircraft control

    Science.gov (United States)

    Linse, Dennis

    1990-01-01

    Current research in Artificial Neural Networks indicates that networks offer some potential advantages in adaptation and fault tolerance. This research is directed at determining the possible applicability of neural networks to aircraft control. The first application will be to aircraft trim. Neural network node characteristics, network topology and operation, neural network learning and example histories using neighboring optimal control with a neural net are discussed.

  7. Neural Network Ensembles

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Lars Kai; Salamon, Peter

    1990-01-01

    We propose several means for improving the performance an training of neural networks for classification. We use crossvalidation as a tool for optimizing network parameters and architecture. We show further that the remaining generalization error can be reduced by invoking ensembles of similar...... networks....

  8. Critical Branching Neural Networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kello, Christopher T.

    2013-01-01

    It is now well-established that intrinsic variations in human neural and behavioral activity tend to exhibit scaling laws in their fluctuations and distributions. The meaning of these scaling laws is an ongoing matter of debate between isolable causes versus pervasive causes. A spiking neural network model is presented that self-tunes to critical…

  9. Parallel consensual neural networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Benediktsson, J A; Sveinsson, J R; Ersoy, O K; Swain, P H

    1997-01-01

    A new type of a neural-network architecture, the parallel consensual neural network (PCNN), is introduced and applied in classification/data fusion of multisource remote sensing and geographic data. The PCNN architecture is based on statistical consensus theory and involves using stage neural networks with transformed input data. The input data are transformed several times and the different transformed data are used as if they were independent inputs. The independent inputs are first classified using the stage neural networks. The output responses from the stage networks are then weighted and combined to make a consensual decision. In this paper, optimization methods are used in order to weight the outputs from the stage networks. Two approaches are proposed to compute the data transforms for the PCNN, one for binary data and another for analog data. The analog approach uses wavelet packets. The experimental results obtained with the proposed approach show that the PCNN outperforms both a conjugate-gradient backpropagation neural network and conventional statistical methods in terms of overall classification accuracy of test data.

  10. Introduction to neural networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pavlopoulos, P.

    1996-01-01

    This lecture is a presentation of today's research in neural computation. Neural computation is inspired by knowledge from neuro-science. It draws its methods in large degree from statistical physics and its potential applications lie mainly in computer science and engineering. Neural networks models are algorithms for cognitive tasks, such as learning and optimization, which are based on concepts derived from research into the nature of the brain. The lecture first gives an historical presentation of neural networks development and interest in performing complex tasks. Then, an exhaustive overview of data management and networks computation methods is given: the supervised learning and the associative memory problem, the capacity of networks, the Perceptron networks, the functional link networks, the Madaline (Multiple Adalines) networks, the back-propagation networks, the reduced coulomb energy (RCE) networks, the unsupervised learning and the competitive learning and vector quantization. An example of application in high energy physics is given with the trigger systems and track recognition system (track parametrization, event selection and particle identification) developed for the CPLEAR experiment detectors from the LEAR at CERN. (J.S.). 56 refs., 20 figs., 1 tab., 1 appendix

  11. Neural networks to predict exosphere temperature corrections

    Science.gov (United States)

    Choury, Anna; Bruinsma, Sean; Schaeffer, Philippe

    2013-10-01

    Precise orbit prediction requires a forecast of the atmospheric drag force with a high degree of accuracy. Artificial neural networks are universal approximators derived from artificial intelligence and are widely used for prediction. This paper presents a method of artificial neural networking for prediction of the thermosphere density by forecasting exospheric temperature, which will be used by the semiempirical thermosphere Drag Temperature Model (DTM) currently developed. Artificial neural network has shown to be an effective and robust forecasting model for temperature prediction. The proposed model can be used for any mission from which temperature can be deduced accurately, i.e., it does not require specific training. Although the primary goal of the study was to create a model for 1 day ahead forecast, the proposed architecture has been generalized to 2 and 3 days prediction as well. The impact of artificial neural network predictions has been quantified for the low-orbiting satellite Gravity Field and Steady-State Ocean Circulation Explorer in 2011, and an order of magnitude smaller orbit errors were found when compared with orbits propagated using the thermosphere model DTM2009.

  12. Application of a Combined Model with Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA and Generalized Regression Neural Network (GRNN in Forecasting Hepatitis Incidence in Heng County, China.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wudi Wei

    Full Text Available Hepatitis is a serious public health problem with increasing cases and property damage in Heng County. It is necessary to develop a model to predict the hepatitis epidemic that could be useful for preventing this disease.The autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA model and the generalized regression neural network (GRNN model were used to fit the incidence data from the Heng County CDC (Center for Disease Control and Prevention from January 2005 to December 2012. Then, the ARIMA-GRNN hybrid model was developed. The incidence data from January 2013 to December 2013 were used to validate the models. Several parameters, including mean absolute error (MAE, root mean square error (RMSE, mean absolute percentage error (MAPE and mean square error (MSE, were used to compare the performance among the three models.The morbidity of hepatitis from Jan 2005 to Dec 2012 has seasonal variation and slightly rising trend. The ARIMA(0,1,2(1,1,112 model was the most appropriate one with the residual test showing a white noise sequence. The smoothing factor of the basic GRNN model and the combined model was 1.8 and 0.07, respectively. The four parameters of the hybrid model were lower than those of the two single models in the validation. The parameters values of the GRNN model were the lowest in the fitting of the three models.The hybrid ARIMA-GRNN model showed better hepatitis incidence forecasting in Heng County than the single ARIMA model and the basic GRNN model. It is a potential decision-supportive tool for controlling hepatitis in Heng County.

  13. Hindcasting of storm waves using neural networks

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Rao, S.; Mandal, S.

    Department NN neural network net i weighted sum of the inputs of neuron i o k network output at kth output node P total number of training pattern s i output of neuron i t k target output at kth output node 1. Introduction Severe storms occur in Bay of Bengal...), forecasting of runoff (Crespo and Mora, 1993), concrete strength (Kasperkiewicz et al., 1995). The uses of neural network in the coastal the wave conditions will change from year to year, thus a proper statistical and climatological treatment requires several...

  14. Ocean wave prediction using numerical and neural network models

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Mandal, S.; Prabaharan, N.

    This paper presents an overview of the development of the numerical wave prediction models and recently used neural networks for ocean wave hindcasting and forecasting. The numerical wave models express the physical concepts of the phenomena...

  15. Artificial neural network intelligent method for prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trifonov, Roumen; Yoshinov, Radoslav; Pavlova, Galya; Tsochev, Georgi

    2017-09-01

    Accounting and financial classification and prediction problems are high challenge and researchers use different methods to solve them. Methods and instruments for short time prediction of financial operations using artificial neural network are considered. The methods, used for prediction of financial data as well as the developed forecasting system with neural network are described in the paper. The architecture of a neural network used four different technical indicators, which are based on the raw data and the current day of the week is presented. The network developed is used for forecasting movement of stock prices one day ahead and consists of an input layer, one hidden layer and an output layer. The training method is algorithm with back propagation of the error. The main advantage of the developed system is self-determination of the optimal topology of neural network, due to which it becomes flexible and more precise The proposed system with neural network is universal and can be applied to various financial instruments using only basic technical indicators as input data.

  16. A Neural Network-Based Interval Pattern Matcher

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jing Lu

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available One of the most important roles in the machine learning area is to classify, and neural networks are very important classifiers. However, traditional neural networks cannot identify intervals, let alone classify them. To improve their identification ability, we propose a neural network-based interval matcher in our paper. After summarizing the theoretical construction of the model, we take a simple and a practical weather forecasting experiment, which show that the recognizer accuracy reaches 100% and that is promising.

  17. Optimum Neural Network Architecture for Precipitation Prediction of Myanmar

    OpenAIRE

    Khaing Win Mar; Thinn Thu Naing

    2008-01-01

    Nowadays, precipitation prediction is required for proper planning and management of water resources. Prediction with neural network models has received increasing interest in various research and application domains. However, it is difficult to determine the best neural network architecture for prediction since it is not immediately obvious how many input or hidden nodes are used in the model. In this paper, neural network model is used as a forecasting tool. The major aim is to evaluate a s...

  18. APPLICATION OF A FULL-COHERENT ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORK FOR FORECASTING OF THE MODES OF STORAGE OF DOMESTIC LOW-OLIVE RAW MATERIALS IN CONTROLLED ENVIRONMENTS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N. S. Rodionova

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Summary. Researches on increase in an expiration date of the wheat germs (WG with use of compositions of organic acids are conducted. With a research objective of influence of concentration of mixes of organic acids on change of indicators of quality at storage of the SALARY in various modes investigated quality indicators in the range of concentration of 1-7% to the mass of a product. As control the raw SALARIES served. Skilled products stored in refrigerator conditions (temperature 4-6 ºС, relative humidity of air of 75-80% and a warehouse (temperature 20-22 ºС, relative humidity of air of 70-80%. The software product on the basis of the program of training and the analysis of training of an artificial full-coherent neural network (INS in the Python 2.7 language with program libraries of mathematical processing of scientific data of "scipy" is developed. As input parameters of a neural network were considered: humidity of wheaten germs (х1, %, relative humidity of air (х2, %, ambient temperature (х3, ºС and concentration of mix of organic acids (х4, %. By means of the software, some neural networks were designed and trained. For modeling the network with two layers was used. Applying the developed and trained neural network it is possible constructed dependence у(х1, х2, х3, х4. For visualization in three-dimensional space limited amount of arguments of function by two. Results of work of neural networks y (x1, x4 with the recorded entrance parameters (x2 = 60, %, x3=20, ºC and a neural network y (x2, x3 with the recorded input parameters are presented (x1 = 15%, x4 = 5%. The received mathematical model which on the set set of certain parameters of storage, allows to receive concrete value of output parameter and to plan the storage modes in controlled environments.

  19. Effectiveness of firefly algorithm based neural network in time series ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Effectiveness of firefly algorithm based neural network in time series forecasting. ... In the experiments, three well known time series were used to evaluate the performance. Results obtained were compared with ... Keywords: Time series, Artificial Neural Network, Firefly Algorithm, Particle Swarm Optimization, Overfitting ...

  20. assessment of neural networks performance in modeling rainfall ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Sholagberu

    neural network architecture for precipitation prediction of Myanmar, World Academy of. Science, Engineering and Technology, 48, pp. 130 – 134. Kumarasiri, A.D. and Sonnadara, D.U.J. (2006). Rainfall forecasting: an artificial neural network approach, Proceedings of the Technical Sessions,. 22, pp. 1-13 Institute of Physics ...

  1. Deconvolution using a neural network

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lehman, S.K.

    1990-11-15

    Viewing one dimensional deconvolution as a matrix inversion problem, we compare a neural network backpropagation matrix inverse with LMS, and pseudo-inverse. This is a largely an exercise in understanding how our neural network code works. 1 ref.

  2. Introduction to Artificial Neural Networks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larsen, Jan

    1999-01-01

    The note addresses introduction to signal analysis and classification based on artificial feed-forward neural networks.......The note addresses introduction to signal analysis and classification based on artificial feed-forward neural networks....

  3. Artificial neural network modelling

    CERN Document Server

    Samarasinghe, Sandhya

    2016-01-01

    This book covers theoretical aspects as well as recent innovative applications of Artificial Neural networks (ANNs) in natural, environmental, biological, social, industrial and automated systems. It presents recent results of ANNs in modelling small, large and complex systems under three categories, namely, 1) Networks, Structure Optimisation, Robustness and Stochasticity 2) Advances in Modelling Biological and Environmental Systems and 3) Advances in Modelling Social and Economic Systems. The book aims at serving undergraduates, postgraduates and researchers in ANN computational modelling. .

  4. Rotation Invariance Neural Network

    OpenAIRE

    Li, Shiyuan

    2017-01-01

    Rotation invariance and translation invariance have great values in image recognition tasks. In this paper, we bring a new architecture in convolutional neural network (CNN) named cyclic convolutional layer to achieve rotation invariance in 2-D symbol recognition. We can also get the position and orientation of the 2-D symbol by the network to achieve detection purpose for multiple non-overlap target. Last but not least, this architecture can achieve one-shot learning in some cases using thos...

  5. NEURAL NETWORKS FOR STOCK MARKET OPTION PRICING

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sergey A. Sannikov

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: The use of neural networks for non-linear models helps to understand where linear model drawbacks, coused by their specification, reveal themselves. This paper attempts to find this out. The objective of research is to determine the meaning of “option prices calculation using neural networks”. Materials and Methods: We use two kinds of variables: endogenous (variables included in the model of neural network and variables affecting on the model (permanent disturbance. Results: All data are divided into 3 sets: learning, affirming and testing. All selected variables are normalised from 0 to 1. Extreme values of income were shortcut. Discussion and Conclusions: Using the 33-14-1 neural network with direct links we obtained two sets of forecasts. Optimal criteria of strategies in stock markets’ option pricing were developed.

  6. Neural Networks and Micromechanics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kussul, Ernst; Baidyk, Tatiana; Wunsch, Donald C.

    The title of the book, "Neural Networks and Micromechanics," seems artificial. However, the scientific and technological developments in recent decades demonstrate a very close connection between the two different areas of neural networks and micromechanics. The purpose of this book is to demonstrate this connection. Some artificial intelligence (AI) methods, including neural networks, could be used to improve automation system performance in manufacturing processes. However, the implementation of these AI methods within industry is rather slow because of the high cost of conducting experiments using conventional manufacturing and AI systems. To lower the cost, we have developed special micromechanical equipment that is similar to conventional mechanical equipment but of much smaller size and therefore of lower cost. This equipment could be used to evaluate different AI methods in an easy and inexpensive way. The proved methods could be transferred to industry through appropriate scaling. In this book, we describe the prototypes of low cost microequipment for manufacturing processes and the implementation of some AI methods to increase precision, such as computer vision systems based on neural networks for microdevice assembly and genetic algorithms for microequipment characterization and the increase of microequipment precision.

  7. Short term load forecasting using neuro-fuzzy networks

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hoffman, M.; Hassan, A. [South Dakota School of Mines and Technology, Rapid City, SD (United States); Martinez, D. [Black Hills Power and Light, Rapid City, SD (United States)

    2005-07-01

    Details of a neuro-fuzzy network-based short term load forecasting system for power utilities were presented. The fuzzy logic controller was used to fuzzify inputs representing historical temperature and load curves. The fuzzified inputs were then used to develop the fuzzy rules matrix. Output membership function values were determined by evaluating the fuzzified inputs with the fuzzy rules. Output membership function values were used as inputs for the neural network portion of the system. The training process used a back propagation gradient descent algorithm to adjust the weight values of the neural network in order to reduce the error between the neural network output and the desired output. The neural network was then used to predict future load values. Sample data were taken from a local power company's daily load curve to validate the system. A 10 per cent forecast error was introduced in the temperature values to determine the effect on load prediction. Results of the study suggest that the combined use of fuzzy logic and neural networks provide greater accuracy than studies where either approach is used alone. 6 refs., 6 figs.

  8. Neural networks for triggering

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Denby, B.; Campbell, M.; Bedeschi, F.; Chriss, N.; Bowers, C.; Nesti, F.

    1990-01-01

    Two types of neural network beauty trigger architectures, based on identification of electrons in jets and recognition of secondary vertices, have been simulated in the environment of the Fermilab CDF experiment. The efficiencies for B's and rejection of background obtained are encouraging. If hardware tests are successful, the electron identification architecture will be tested in the 1991 run of CDF. 10 refs., 5 figs., 1 tab

  9. Research on wind field algorithm of wind lidar based on BP neural network and grey prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Yong; Chen, Chun-Li; Luo, Xiong; Zhang, Yan; Yang, Ze-hou; Zhou, Jie; Shi, Xiao-ding; Wang, Lei

    2018-01-01

    This paper uses the BP neural network and grey algorithm to forecast and study radar wind field. In order to reduce the residual error in the wind field prediction which uses BP neural network and grey algorithm, calculating the minimum value of residual error function, adopting the residuals of the gray algorithm trained by BP neural network, using the trained network model to forecast the residual sequence, using the predicted residual error sequence to modify the forecast sequence of the grey algorithm. The test data show that using the grey algorithm modified by BP neural network can effectively reduce the residual value and improve the prediction precision.

  10. Investment Valuation Analysis with Artificial Neural Networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hüseyin İNCE

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available This paper shows that discounted cash flow and net present value, which are traditional investment valuation models, can be combined with artificial neural network model forecasting. The main inputs for the valuation models, such as revenue, costs, capital expenditure, and their growth rates, are heavily related to sector dynamics and macroeconomics. The growth rates of those inputs are related to inflation and exchange rates. Therefore, predicting inflation and exchange rates is a critical issue for the valuation output. In this paper, the Turkish economy’s inflation rate and the exchange rate of USD/TRY are forecast by artificial neural networks and implemented to the discounted cash flow model. Finally, the results are benchmarked with conventional practices.

  11. Neural electrical activity and neural network growth.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gafarov, F M

    2018-05-01

    The development of central and peripheral neural system depends in part on the emergence of the correct functional connectivity in its input and output pathways. Now it is generally accepted that molecular factors guide neurons to establish a primary scaffold that undergoes activity-dependent refinement for building a fully functional circuit. However, a number of experimental results obtained recently shows that the neuronal electrical activity plays an important role in the establishing of initial interneuronal connections. Nevertheless, these processes are rather difficult to study experimentally, due to the absence of theoretical description and quantitative parameters for estimation of the neuronal activity influence on growth in neural networks. In this work we propose a general framework for a theoretical description of the activity-dependent neural network growth. The theoretical description incorporates a closed-loop growth model in which the neural activity can affect neurite outgrowth, which in turn can affect neural activity. We carried out the detailed quantitative analysis of spatiotemporal activity patterns and studied the relationship between individual cells and the network as a whole to explore the relationship between developing connectivity and activity patterns. The model, developed in this work will allow us to develop new experimental techniques for studying and quantifying the influence of the neuronal activity on growth processes in neural networks and may lead to a novel techniques for constructing large-scale neural networks by self-organization. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  12. Runoff Modelling in Urban Storm Drainage by Neural Networks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasmussen, Michael R.; Brorsen, Michael; Schaarup-Jensen, Kjeld

    1995-01-01

    A neural network is used to simulate folw and water levels in a sewer system. The calibration of th neural network is based on a few measured events and the network is validated against measureed events as well as flow simulated with the MOUSE model (Lindberg and Joergensen, 1986). The neural...... network is used to compute flow or water level at selected points in the sewer system, and to forecast the flow from a small residential area. The main advantages of the neural network are the build-in self calibration procedure and high speed performance, but the neural network cannot be used to extract...... knowledge of the runoff process. The neural network was found to simulate 150 times faster than e.g. the MOUSE model....

  13. Program Helps Simulate Neural Networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Villarreal, James; Mcintire, Gary

    1993-01-01

    Neural Network Environment on Transputer System (NNETS) computer program provides users high degree of flexibility in creating and manipulating wide variety of neural-network topologies at processing speeds not found in conventional computing environments. Supports back-propagation and back-propagation-related algorithms. Back-propagation algorithm used is implementation of Rumelhart's generalized delta rule. NNETS developed on INMOS Transputer(R). Predefines back-propagation network, Jordan network, and reinforcement network to assist users in learning and defining own networks. Also enables users to configure other neural-network paradigms from NNETS basic architecture. Small portion of software written in OCCAM(R) language.

  14. Synapse:neural network for predict power consumption: users guide

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Muller, C; Mangeas, M; Perrot, N

    1994-08-01

    SYNAPSE is forecasting tool designed to predict power consumption in metropolitan France on the half hour time scale. Some characteristics distinguish this forecasting model from those which already exist. In particular, it is composed of numerous neural networks. The idea for using many neural networks arises from past tests. These tests showed us that a single neural network is not able to solve the problem correctly. From this result, we decided to perform unsupervised classification of the 24 consumption curves. From this classification, six classes appeared, linked with the weekdays: Mondays, Tuesdays, Wednesdays, Thursdays, Fridays, Saturdays, Sundays, holidays and bridge days. For each class and for each half hour, two multilayer perceptrons are built. The two of them forecast the power for one particular half hour, and for a day including one of the determined class. The input of these two network are different: the first one (short time forecasting) includes the powers for the most recent half hour and relative power of the previous day; the second (medium time forecasting) includes only the relative power of the previous day. A process connects the results of every networks and allows one to forecast more than one half-hour in advance. In this process, short time forecasting networks and medium time forecasting networks are used differently. The first kind of neural networks gives good results on the scale of one day. The second one gives good forecasts for the next predicted powers. In this note, the organization of the SYNAPSE program is detailed, and the user`s menu is described. This first version of synapse works and should allow the APC group to evaluate its utility. (authors). 6 refs., 2 appends.

  15. Trimaran Resistance Artificial Neural Network

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-01-01

    11th International Conference on Fast Sea Transportation FAST 2011, Honolulu, Hawaii, USA, September 2011 Trimaran Resistance Artificial Neural Network Richard...Trimaran Resistance Artificial Neural Network 5a. CONTRACT NUMBER 5b. GRANT NUMBER 5c. PROGRAM ELEMENT NUMBER 6. AUTHOR(S) 5d. PROJECT NUMBER 5e... Artificial Neural Network and is restricted to the center and side-hull configurations tested. The value in the parametric model is that it is able to

  16. Interacting neural networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Metzler, R.; Kinzel, W.; Kanter, I.

    2000-08-01

    Several scenarios of interacting neural networks which are trained either in an identical or in a competitive way are solved analytically. In the case of identical training each perceptron receives the output of its neighbor. The symmetry of the stationary state as well as the sensitivity to the used training algorithm are investigated. Two competitive perceptrons trained on mutually exclusive learning aims and a perceptron which is trained on the opposite of its own output are examined analytically. An ensemble of competitive perceptrons is used as decision-making algorithms in a model of a closed market (El Farol Bar problem or the Minority Game. In this game, a set of agents who have to make a binary decision is considered.); each network is trained on the history of minority decisions. This ensemble of perceptrons relaxes to a stationary state whose performance can be better than random.

  17. Analysis of neural networks

    CERN Document Server

    Heiden, Uwe

    1980-01-01

    The purpose of this work is a unified and general treatment of activity in neural networks from a mathematical pOint of view. Possible applications of the theory presented are indica­ ted throughout the text. However, they are not explored in de­ tail for two reasons : first, the universal character of n- ral activity in nearly all animals requires some type of a general approach~ secondly, the mathematical perspicuity would suffer if too many experimental details and empirical peculiarities were interspersed among the mathematical investigation. A guide to many applications is supplied by the references concerning a variety of specific issues. Of course the theory does not aim at covering all individual problems. Moreover there are other approaches to neural network theory (see e.g. Poggio-Torre, 1978) based on the different lev­ els at which the nervous system may be viewed. The theory is a deterministic one reflecting the average be­ havior of neurons or neuron pools. In this respect the essay is writt...

  18. Forecasting of time series with trend and seasonal cycle using the airline model and artificial neural networks Pronóstico de series de tiempo con tendencia y ciclo estacional usando el modelo airline y redes neuronales artificiales

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J D Velásquez

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available Many time series with trend and seasonal pattern are successfully modeled and forecasted by the airline model of Box and Jenkins; however, this model neglects the presence of nonlinearity on data. In this paper, we propose a new nonlinear version of the airline model; for this, we replace the moving average linear component by a multilayer perceptron neural network. The proposedmodel is used for forecasting two benchmark time series; we found that theproposed model is able to forecast the time series with more accuracy that other traditional approaches.Muchas series de tiempo con tendencia y ciclos estacionales son exitosamente modeladas y pronosticadas usando el modelo airline de Box y Jenkins; sin embargo, la presencia de no linealidades en los datos son despreciadas por este modelo. En este artículo, se propone una nueva versión no lineal del modelo airline; para esto, se reemplaza la componente lineal de promedios móviles por un perceptrón multicapa. El modelo propuesto es usado para pronosticar dos series de tiempo benchmark; se encontró que el modelo propuesto es capaz de pronosticar las series de tiempo con mayor precisión que otras aproximaciones tradicionales.

  19. Application of Neural Network Optimized by Mind Evolutionary Computation in Building Energy Prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Song, Chen; Zhong-Cheng, Wu; Hong, Lv

    2018-03-01

    Building Energy forecasting plays an important role in energy management and plan. Using mind evolutionary algorithm to find the optimal network weights and threshold, to optimize the BP neural network, can overcome the problem of the BP neural network into a local minimum point. The optimized network is used for time series prediction, and the same month forecast, to get two predictive values. Then two kinds of predictive values are put into neural network, to get the final forecast value. The effectiveness of the method was verified by experiment with the energy value of three buildings in Hefei.

  20. Neural Networks for Optimal Control

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sørensen, O.

    1995-01-01

    Two neural networks are trained to act as an observer and a controller, respectively, to control a non-linear, multi-variable process.......Two neural networks are trained to act as an observer and a controller, respectively, to control a non-linear, multi-variable process....

  1. Neural networks at the Tevatron

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Badgett, W.; Burkett, K.; Campbell, M.K.; Wu, D.Y.; Bianchin, S.; DeNardi, M.; Pauletta, G.; Santi, L.; Caner, A.; Denby, B.; Haggerty, H.; Lindsey, C.S.; Wainer, N.; Dall'Agata, M.; Johns, K.; Dickson, M.; Stanco, L.; Wyss, J.L.

    1992-10-01

    This paper summarizes neural network applications at the Fermilab Tevatron, including the first online hardware application in high energy physics (muon tracking): the CDF and DO neural network triggers; offline quark/gluon discrimination at CDF; ND a new tool for top to multijets recognition at CDF

  2. Neural Networks for the Beginner.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Snyder, Robin M.

    Motivated by the brain, neural networks are a right-brained approach to artificial intelligence that is used to recognize patterns based on previous training. In practice, one would not program an expert system to recognize a pattern and one would not train a neural network to make decisions from rules; but one could combine the best features of…

  3. Artificial neural networks in NDT

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Abdul Aziz Mohamed

    2001-01-01

    Artificial neural networks, simply known as neural networks, have attracted considerable interest in recent years largely because of a growing recognition of the potential of these computational paradigms as powerful alternative models to conventional pattern recognition or function approximation techniques. The neural networks approach is having a profound effect on almost all fields, and has been utilised in fields Where experimental inter-disciplinary work is being carried out. Being a multidisciplinary subject with a broad knowledge base, Nondestructive Testing (NDT) or Nondestructive Evaluation (NDE) is no exception. This paper explains typical applications of neural networks in NDT/NDE. Three promising types of neural networks are highlighted, namely, back-propagation, binary Hopfield and Kohonen's self-organising maps. (Author)

  4. Use of artificial neural networks for transport energy demand modeling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Murat, Yetis Sazi; Ceylan, Halim

    2006-01-01

    The paper illustrates an artificial neural network (ANN) approach based on supervised neural networks for the transport energy demand forecasting using socio-economic and transport related indicators. The ANN transport energy demand model is developed. The actual forecast is obtained using a feed forward neural network, trained with back propagation algorithm. In order to investigate the influence of socio-economic indicators on the transport energy demand, the ANN is analyzed based on gross national product (GNP), population and the total annual average veh-km along with historical energy data available from 1970 to 2001. Comparing model predictions with energy data in testing period performs the model validation. The projections are made with two scenarios. It is obtained that the ANN reflects the fluctuation in historical data for both dependent and independent variables. The results obtained bear out the suitability of the adopted methodology for the transport energy-forecasting problem

  5. Financial Time Series Prediction Using Elman Recurrent Random Neural Networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jie Wang

    2016-01-01

    (ERNN, the empirical results show that the proposed neural network displays the best performance among these neural networks in financial time series forecasting. Further, the empirical research is performed in testing the predictive effects of SSE, TWSE, KOSPI, and Nikkei225 with the established model, and the corresponding statistical comparisons of the above market indices are also exhibited. The experimental results show that this approach gives good performance in predicting the values from the stock market indices.

  6. Prediction of Electricity Usage Using Convolutional Neural Networks

    OpenAIRE

    Hansen, Martin

    2017-01-01

    Master's thesis Information- and communication technology IKT590 - University of Agder 2017 Convolutional Neural Networks are overwhelmingly accurate when attempting to predict numbers using the famous MNIST-dataset. In this paper, we are attempting to transcend these results for time- series forecasting, and compare them with several regression mod- els. The Convolutional Neural Network model predicted the same value through the entire time lapse in contrast with the other ...

  7. Neural Networks in Control Applications

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sørensen, O.

    The intention of this report is to make a systematic examination of the possibilities of applying neural networks in those technical areas, which are familiar to a control engineer. In other words, the potential of neural networks in control applications is given higher priority than a detailed...... study of the networks themselves. With this end in view the following restrictions have been made: - Amongst numerous neural network structures, only the Multi Layer Perceptron (a feed-forward network) is applied. - Amongst numerous training algorithms, only four algorithms are examined, all...... in a recursive form (sample updating). The simplest is the Back Probagation Error Algorithm, and the most complex is the recursive Prediction Error Method using a Gauss-Newton search direction. - Over-fitting is often considered to be a serious problem when training neural networks. This problem is specifically...

  8. One-day-ahead streamflow forecasting via super-ensembles of several neural network architectures based on the Multi-Level Diversity Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brochero, Darwin; Hajji, Islem; Pina, Jasson; Plana, Queralt; Sylvain, Jean-Daniel; Vergeynst, Jenna; Anctil, Francois

    2015-04-01

    Theories about generalization error with ensembles are mainly based on the diversity concept, which promotes resorting to many members of different properties to support mutually agreeable decisions. Kuncheva (2004) proposed the Multi Level Diversity Model (MLDM) to promote diversity in model ensembles, combining different data subsets, input subsets, models, parameters, and including a combiner level in order to optimize the final ensemble. This work tests the hypothesis about the minimisation of the generalization error with ensembles of Neural Network (NN) structures. We used the MLDM to evaluate two different scenarios: (i) ensembles from a same NN architecture, and (ii) a super-ensemble built by a combination of sub-ensembles of many NN architectures. The time series used correspond to the 12 basins of the MOdel Parameter Estimation eXperiment (MOPEX) project that were used by Duan et al. (2006) and Vos (2013) as benchmark. Six architectures are evaluated: FeedForward NN (FFNN) trained with the Levenberg Marquardt algorithm (Hagan et al., 1996), FFNN trained with SCE (Duan et al., 1993), Recurrent NN trained with a complex method (Weins et al., 2008), Dynamic NARX NN (Leontaritis and Billings, 1985), Echo State Network (ESN), and leak integrator neuron (L-ESN) (Lukosevicius and Jaeger, 2009). Each architecture performs separately an Input Variable Selection (IVS) according to a forward stepwise selection (Anctil et al., 2009) using mean square error as objective function. Post-processing by Predictor Stepwise Selection (PSS) of the super-ensemble has been done following the method proposed by Brochero et al. (2011). IVS results showed that the lagged stream flow, lagged precipitation, and Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) (McKee et al., 1993) were the most relevant variables. They were respectively selected as one of the firsts three selected variables in 66, 45, and 28 of the 72 scenarios. A relationship between aridity index (Arora, 2002) and NN

  9. An accuracy assessment of an empirical sine model, a novel sine model and an artificial neural network model for forecasting illuminance/irradiance on horizontal plane of all sky types at Mahasarakham, Thailand

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pattanasethanon, Singthong; Lertsatitthanakorn, Charoenporn; Atthajariyakul, Surat; Soponronnarit, Somchart

    2008-01-01

    The results of a study on all sky modeling and forecasting daylight availability for the tropical climate found in the central region of the northeastern part of Thailand (16 deg. 14' N, 103 deg. 15' E) is presented. The required components of sky quantities, namely, global and diffuse horizontal irradiance and global horizontal illuminance for saving energy used in buildings are estimated. The empirical sinusoidal models are validated. A and B values of the empirical sinusoidal model for all sky conditions are determined and developed to become a form of the sky conditions. In addition, a novel sinusoidal model, which consists of polynomial or exponential functions, is validated. A and B values of the empirical sinusoidal model for all sky conditions are determined and developed to become a new function in the polynomial or exponential form of the sky conditions. Novelettes, an artificial intelligent agent, namely, artificial neural network (ANN) model is also identified. Back propagation learning algorithms were used in the networks. Moreover, a one year data set and a next half year data set were used in order to train and test the neural network, respectively. Observation results from one year's round data indicate that luminosity and energy from the sky on horizontal in the area around Mahasarakham are frequently brighter than those of Bangkok. The accuracy of the validated model is determined in terms of the mean bias deviation (MBD), the root-mean-square-deviation (RMSD) and the coefficient of correlation (R 2 ) values. A comparison of the estimated solar irradiation values and the observed values revealed a small error slide in the empirical sinusoidal model as well. In addition, some results of the sky quantity forecast by the ANN model indicate that the ANN model is more accurate than the empirical models and the novel sinusoidal models. This study confirms the ability of the ANN to predict highly accurate solar radiance/illuminance values. We believe

  10. Artificial Neural Network Analysis System

    Science.gov (United States)

    2001-02-27

    Contract No. DASG60-00-M-0201 Purchase request no.: Foot in the Door-01 Title Name: Artificial Neural Network Analysis System Company: Atlantic... Artificial Neural Network Analysis System 5b. GRANT NUMBER 5c. PROGRAM ELEMENT NUMBER 6. AUTHOR(S) Powell, Bruce C 5d. PROJECT NUMBER 5e. TASK NUMBER...34) 27-02-2001 Report Type N/A Dates Covered (from... to) ("DD MON YYYY") 28-10-2000 27-02-2001 Title and Subtitle Artificial Neural Network Analysis

  11. Precipitation Nowcast using Deep Recurrent Neural Network

    Science.gov (United States)

    Akbari Asanjan, A.; Yang, T.; Gao, X.; Hsu, K. L.; Sorooshian, S.

    2016-12-01

    An accurate precipitation nowcast (0-6 hours) with a fine temporal and spatial resolution has always been an important prerequisite for flood warning, streamflow prediction and risk management. Most of the popular approaches used for forecasting precipitation can be categorized into two groups. One type of precipitation forecast relies on numerical modeling of the physical dynamics of atmosphere and another is based on empirical and statistical regression models derived by local hydrologists or meteorologists. Given the recent advances in artificial intelligence, in this study a powerful Deep Recurrent Neural Network, termed as Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) model, is creatively used to extract the patterns and forecast the spatial and temporal variability of Cloud Top Brightness Temperature (CTBT) observed from GOES satellite. Then, a 0-6 hours precipitation nowcast is produced using a Precipitation Estimation from Remote Sensing Information using Artificial Neural Network (PERSIANN) algorithm, in which the CTBT nowcast is used as the PERSIANN algorithm's raw inputs. Two case studies over the continental U.S. have been conducted that demonstrate the improvement of proposed approach as compared to a classical Feed Forward Neural Network and a couple simple regression models. The advantages and disadvantages of the proposed method are summarized with regard to its capability of pattern recognition through time, handling of vanishing gradient during model learning, and working with sparse data. The studies show that the LSTM model performs better than other methods, and it is able to learn the temporal evolution of the precipitation events through over 1000 time lags. The uniqueness of PERSIANN's algorithm enables an alternative precipitation nowcast approach as demonstrated in this study, in which the CTBT prediction is produced and used as the inputs for generating precipitation nowcast.

  12. Using adaptive network based fuzzy inference system to forecast regional electricity loads

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ying, L.-C.; Pan, M.-C.

    2008-01-01

    Since accurate regional load forecasting is very important for improvement of the management performance of the electric industry, various regional load forecasting methods have been developed. The purpose of this study is to apply the adaptive network based fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) model to forecast the regional electricity loads in Taiwan and demonstrate the forecasting performance of this model. Based on the mean absolute percentage errors and statistical results, we can see that the ANFIS model has better forecasting performance than the regression model, artificial neural network (ANN) model, support vector machines with genetic algorithms (SVMG) model, recurrent support vector machines with genetic algorithms (RSVMG) model and hybrid ellipsoidal fuzzy systems for time series forecasting (HEFST) model. Thus, the ANFIS model is a promising alternative for forecasting regional electricity loads

  13. Using adaptive network based fuzzy inference system to forecast regional electricity loads

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ying, Li-Chih [Department of Marketing Management, Central Taiwan University of Science and Technology, 11, Pu-tzu Lane, Peitun, Taichung City 406 (China); Pan, Mei-Chiu [Graduate Institute of Management Sciences, Nanhua University, 32, Chung Keng Li, Dalin, Chiayi 622 (China)

    2008-02-15

    Since accurate regional load forecasting is very important for improvement of the management performance of the electric industry, various regional load forecasting methods have been developed. The purpose of this study is to apply the adaptive network based fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) model to forecast the regional electricity loads in Taiwan and demonstrate the forecasting performance of this model. Based on the mean absolute percentage errors and statistical results, we can see that the ANFIS model has better forecasting performance than the regression model, artificial neural network (ANN) model, support vector machines with genetic algorithms (SVMG) model, recurrent support vector machines with genetic algorithms (RSVMG) model and hybrid ellipsoidal fuzzy systems for time series forecasting (HEFST) model. Thus, the ANFIS model is a promising alternative for forecasting regional electricity loads. (author)

  14. Neural networks and statistical learning

    CERN Document Server

    Du, Ke-Lin

    2014-01-01

    Providing a broad but in-depth introduction to neural network and machine learning in a statistical framework, this book provides a single, comprehensive resource for study and further research. All the major popular neural network models and statistical learning approaches are covered with examples and exercises in every chapter to develop a practical working understanding of the content. Each of the twenty-five chapters includes state-of-the-art descriptions and important research results on the respective topics. The broad coverage includes the multilayer perceptron, the Hopfield network, associative memory models, clustering models and algorithms, the radial basis function network, recurrent neural networks, principal component analysis, nonnegative matrix factorization, independent component analysis, discriminant analysis, support vector machines, kernel methods, reinforcement learning, probabilistic and Bayesian networks, data fusion and ensemble learning, fuzzy sets and logic, neurofuzzy models, hardw...

  15. Optical Neural Network Classifier Architectures

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Getbehead, Mark

    1998-01-01

    We present an adaptive opto-electronic neural network hardware architecture capable of exploiting parallel optics to realize real-time processing and classification of high-dimensional data for Air...

  16. Memristor-based neural networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Thomas, Andy

    2013-01-01

    The synapse is a crucial element in biological neural networks, but a simple electronic equivalent has been absent. This complicates the development of hardware that imitates biological architectures in the nervous system. Now, the recent progress in the experimental realization of memristive devices has renewed interest in artificial neural networks. The resistance of a memristive system depends on its past states and exactly this functionality can be used to mimic the synaptic connections in a (human) brain. After a short introduction to memristors, we present and explain the relevant mechanisms in a biological neural network, such as long-term potentiation and spike time-dependent plasticity, and determine the minimal requirements for an artificial neural network. We review the implementations of these processes using basic electric circuits and more complex mechanisms that either imitate biological systems or could act as a model system for them. (topical review)

  17. Online multistep-ahead inundation depth forecasts by recurrent NARX networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H.-Y. Shen

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available Various types of artificial neural networks (ANNs have been successfully applied in hydrological fields, but relatively scant on multistep-ahead flood inundation forecasting, which is very difficult to achieve, especially when dealing with forecasts without regular observed data. This study proposes a recurrent configuration of nonlinear autoregressive with exogenous inputs (NARX network, called R-NARX, to forecast multistep-ahead inundation depths in an inundation area. The proposed R-NARX is constructed based on the recurrent neural network (RNN, which is commonly used for modeling nonlinear dynamical systems. The models were trained and tested based on a large number of inundation data generated by a well validated two-dimensional simulation model at thirteen inundation-prone sites in Yilan County, Taiwan. We demonstrate that the R-NARX model can effectively inhibit error growth and accumulation when being applied to online multistep-ahead inundation forecasts over a long lasting forecast period. For comparison, a feedforward time-delay and an online feedback configuration of NARX networks (T-NARX and O-NARX were performed. The results show that (1 T-NARX networks cannot make online forecasts due to unavailable inputs in the constructed networks even though they provide the best performances for reference only; and (2 R-NARX networks consistently outperform O-NARX networks and can be adequately applied to online multistep-ahead forecasts of inundation depths in the study area during typhoon events.

  18. Network Bandwidth Utilization Forecast Model on High Bandwidth Network

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yoo, Wucherl; Sim, Alex

    2014-07-07

    With the increasing number of geographically distributed scientific collaborations and the scale of the data size growth, it has become more challenging for users to achieve the best possible network performance on a shared network. We have developed a forecast model to predict expected bandwidth utilization for high-bandwidth wide area network. The forecast model can improve the efficiency of resource utilization and scheduling data movements on high-bandwidth network to accommodate ever increasing data volume for large-scale scientific data applications. Univariate model is developed with STL and ARIMA on SNMP path utilization data. Compared with traditional approach such as Box-Jenkins methodology, our forecast model reduces computation time by 83.2percent. It also shows resilience against abrupt network usage change. The accuracy of the forecast model is within the standard deviation of the monitored measurements.

  19. Network bandwidth utilization forecast model on high bandwidth networks

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yoo, Wuchert (William) [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Sim, Alex [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)

    2015-03-30

    With the increasing number of geographically distributed scientific collaborations and the scale of the data size growth, it has become more challenging for users to achieve the best possible network performance on a shared network. We have developed a forecast model to predict expected bandwidth utilization for high-bandwidth wide area network. The forecast model can improve the efficiency of resource utilization and scheduling data movements on high-bandwidth network to accommodate ever increasing data volume for large-scale scientific data applications. Univariate model is developed with STL and ARIMA on SNMP path utilization data. Compared with traditional approach such as Box-Jenkins methodology, our forecast model reduces computation time by 83.2%. It also shows resilience against abrupt network usage change. The accuracy of the forecast model is within the standard deviation of the monitored measurements.

  20. What are artificial neural networks?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Krogh, Anders

    2008-01-01

    Artificial neural networks have been applied to problems ranging from speech recognition to prediction of protein secondary structure, classification of cancers and gene prediction. How do they work and what might they be good for? Udgivelsesdato: 2008-Feb......Artificial neural networks have been applied to problems ranging from speech recognition to prediction of protein secondary structure, classification of cancers and gene prediction. How do they work and what might they be good for? Udgivelsesdato: 2008-Feb...

  1. Complex-Valued Neural Networks

    CERN Document Server

    Hirose, Akira

    2012-01-01

    This book is the second enlarged and revised edition of the first successful monograph on complex-valued neural networks (CVNNs) published in 2006, which lends itself to graduate and undergraduate courses in electrical engineering, informatics, control engineering, mechanics, robotics, bioengineering, and other relevant fields. In the second edition the recent trends in CVNNs research are included, resulting in e.g. almost a doubled number of references. The parametron invented in 1954 is also referred to with discussion on analogy and disparity. Also various additional arguments on the advantages of the complex-valued neural networks enhancing the difference to real-valued neural networks are given in various sections. The book is useful for those beginning their studies, for instance, in adaptive signal processing for highly functional sensing and imaging, control in unknown and changing environment, robotics inspired by human neural systems, and brain-like information processing, as well as interdisciplina...

  2. Application for photovoltaic micro-grid power forecasting usingimproved wavelet neural networks-based on GA%基于遗传算法小波神经网络的光伏微网发电预测

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    刘爱国; 黄泽平; 薛云涛; 汪硕承

    2017-01-01

    It is important for the energy conservation and emissions reduction to accurately predicate the power of photovoltaic micro-grid in a certain period of time in the future.In this paper, by comparing the power generation and meteorological history data, analyzes the factors such as weather, solar radiation and temperature in the photovoltaic power generation prediction, meanwhile, based on the global optimization searching performance of the genetic algorithm and the time-frequency localization of the wavelet neural networks, micro-grid photovoltaic power generation forecasting model has been established.Through case analysis, the results show that wavelet neural network based on genetic algorithm has better learning ability and generalization ability.And in the aspect of micro-grid photovoltaic power, the forecasting data as the network input is more valuable in improving the prediction precision of the model.%准确预测光伏微网在未来某确定的时段内的发电功率,对电力系统稳定和经济运行有着重要意义.文中通过对比发电功率和气象等历史数据,分析了在光伏发电中天气、太阳辐射及温度等因素对发电功率预测的影响,同时综合遗传算法全局快速寻优特性与小波分析的时频局部特性,建立基于遗传算法的小波神经网络光伏微网发电预测模型.结果表明,基于遗传算法的小波神经网络模型的学习能力和泛化能力更强,同时把气象预测数据作为网络的输入有利于提高模型的预测精度.

  3. Flood routing modelling with Artificial Neural Networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. Peters

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available For the modelling of the flood routing in the lower reaches of the Freiberger Mulde river and its tributaries the one-dimensional hydrodynamic modelling system HEC-RAS has been applied. Furthermore, this model was used to generate a database to train multilayer feedforward networks. To guarantee numerical stability for the hydrodynamic modelling of some 60 km of streamcourse an adequate resolution in space requires very small calculation time steps, which are some two orders of magnitude smaller than the input data resolution. This leads to quite high computation requirements seriously restricting the application – especially when dealing with real time operations such as online flood forecasting. In order to solve this problem we tested the application of Artificial Neural Networks (ANN. First studies show the ability of adequately trained multilayer feedforward networks (MLFN to reproduce the model performance.

  4. Fractional Hopfield Neural Networks: Fractional Dynamic Associative Recurrent Neural Networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pu, Yi-Fei; Yi, Zhang; Zhou, Ji-Liu

    2017-10-01

    This paper mainly discusses a novel conceptual framework: fractional Hopfield neural networks (FHNN). As is commonly known, fractional calculus has been incorporated into artificial neural networks, mainly because of its long-term memory and nonlocality. Some researchers have made interesting attempts at fractional neural networks and gained competitive advantages over integer-order neural networks. Therefore, it is naturally makes one ponder how to generalize the first-order Hopfield neural networks to the fractional-order ones, and how to implement FHNN by means of fractional calculus. We propose to introduce a novel mathematical method: fractional calculus to implement FHNN. First, we implement fractor in the form of an analog circuit. Second, we implement FHNN by utilizing fractor and the fractional steepest descent approach, construct its Lyapunov function, and further analyze its attractors. Third, we perform experiments to analyze the stability and convergence of FHNN, and further discuss its applications to the defense against chip cloning attacks for anticounterfeiting. The main contribution of our work is to propose FHNN in the form of an analog circuit by utilizing a fractor and the fractional steepest descent approach, construct its Lyapunov function, prove its Lyapunov stability, analyze its attractors, and apply FHNN to the defense against chip cloning attacks for anticounterfeiting. A significant advantage of FHNN is that its attractors essentially relate to the neuron's fractional order. FHNN possesses the fractional-order-stability and fractional-order-sensitivity characteristics.

  5. Antenna analysis using neural networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, William T.

    1992-01-01

    Conventional computing schemes have long been used to analyze problems in electromagnetics (EM). The vast majority of EM applications require computationally intensive algorithms involving numerical integration and solutions to large systems of equations. The feasibility of using neural network computing algorithms for antenna analysis is investigated. The ultimate goal is to use a trained neural network algorithm to reduce the computational demands of existing reflector surface error compensation techniques. Neural networks are computational algorithms based on neurobiological systems. Neural nets consist of massively parallel interconnected nonlinear computational elements. They are often employed in pattern recognition and image processing problems. Recently, neural network analysis has been applied in the electromagnetics area for the design of frequency selective surfaces and beam forming networks. The backpropagation training algorithm was employed to simulate classical antenna array synthesis techniques. The Woodward-Lawson (W-L) and Dolph-Chebyshev (D-C) array pattern synthesis techniques were used to train the neural network. The inputs to the network were samples of the desired synthesis pattern. The outputs are the array element excitations required to synthesize the desired pattern. Once trained, the network is used to simulate the W-L or D-C techniques. Various sector patterns and cosecant-type patterns (27 total) generated using W-L synthesis were used to train the network. Desired pattern samples were then fed to the neural network. The outputs of the network were the simulated W-L excitations. A 20 element linear array was used. There were 41 input pattern samples with 40 output excitations (20 real parts, 20 imaginary). A comparison between the simulated and actual W-L techniques is shown for a triangular-shaped pattern. Dolph-Chebyshev is a different class of synthesis technique in that D-C is used for side lobe control as opposed to pattern

  6. MODELLING OF CONCENTRATION LIMITS BASED ON NEURAL NETWORKS.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. L. Osipov

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available We study the forecasting model with the concentration limits is-the use of neural network technology. The software for the implementation of these models. It is shown that the efficiency of the system in the experimental material.

  7. NEW TECHNIQUES APPLIED IN ECONOMICS. ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORK

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Constantin Ilie

    2009-05-01

    Full Text Available The present paper has the objective to inform the public regarding the use of new techniques for the modeling, simulate and forecast of system from different field of activity. One of those techniques is Artificial Neural Network, one of the artificial in

  8. Artificial neural network applications in ionospheric studies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L. R. Cander

    1998-06-01

    Full Text Available The ionosphere of Earth exhibits considerable spatial changes and has large temporal variability of various timescales related to the mechanisms of creation, decay and transport of space ionospheric plasma. Many techniques for modelling electron density profiles through entire ionosphere have been developed in order to solve the "age-old problem" of ionospheric physics which has not yet been fully solved. A new way to address this problem is by applying artificial intelligence methodologies to current large amounts of solar-terrestrial and ionospheric data. It is the aim of this paper to show by the most recent examples that modern development of numerical models for ionospheric monthly median long-term prediction and daily hourly short-term forecasting may proceed successfully applying the artificial neural networks. The performance of these techniques is illustrated with different artificial neural networks developed to model and predict the temporal and spatial variations of ionospheric critical frequency, f0F2 and Total Electron Content (TEC. Comparisons between results obtained by the proposed approaches and measured f0F2 and TEC data provide prospects for future applications of the artificial neural networks in ionospheric studies.

  9. Financial time series prediction using spiking neural networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reid, David; Hussain, Abir Jaafar; Tawfik, Hissam

    2014-01-01

    In this paper a novel application of a particular type of spiking neural network, a Polychronous Spiking Network, was used for financial time series prediction. It is argued that the inherent temporal capabilities of this type of network are suited to non-stationary data such as this. The performance of the spiking neural network was benchmarked against three systems: two "traditional", rate-encoded, neural networks; a Multi-Layer Perceptron neural network and a Dynamic Ridge Polynomial neural network, and a standard Linear Predictor Coefficients model. For this comparison three non-stationary and noisy time series were used: IBM stock data; US/Euro exchange rate data, and the price of Brent crude oil. The experiments demonstrated favourable prediction results for the Spiking Neural Network in terms of Annualised Return and prediction error for 5-Step ahead predictions. These results were also supported by other relevant metrics such as Maximum Drawdown and Signal-To-Noise ratio. This work demonstrated the applicability of the Polychronous Spiking Network to financial data forecasting and this in turn indicates the potential of using such networks over traditional systems in difficult to manage non-stationary environments.

  10. Nonlinear Autoregressive Network with the Use of a Moving Average Method for Forecasting Typhoon Tracks

    OpenAIRE

    Tienfuan Kerh; Shin-Hung Wu

    2017-01-01

    Forecasting of a typhoon moving path may help to evaluate the potential negative impacts in the neighbourhood areas along the moving path. This study proposed a work of using both static and dynamic neural network models to link a time series of typhoon track parameters including longitude and latitude of the typhoon central location, cyclonic radius, central wind speed, and typhoon moving speed. Based on the historical records of 100 typhoons, the performances of neural network models are ev...

  11. Wind power prediction based on genetic neural network

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Suhan

    2017-04-01

    The scale of grid connected wind farms keeps increasing. To ensure the stability of power system operation, make a reasonable scheduling scheme and improve the competitiveness of wind farm in the electricity generation market, it's important to accurately forecast the short-term wind power. To reduce the influence of the nonlinear relationship between the disturbance factor and the wind power, the improved prediction model based on genetic algorithm and neural network method is established. To overcome the shortcomings of long training time of BP neural network and easy to fall into local minimum and improve the accuracy of the neural network, genetic algorithm is adopted to optimize the parameters and topology of neural network. The historical data is used as input to predict short-term wind power. The effectiveness and feasibility of the method is verified by the actual data of a certain wind farm as an example.

  12. Neural networks in signal processing

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Govil, R.

    2000-01-01

    Nuclear Engineering has matured during the last decade. In research and design, control, supervision, maintenance and production, mathematical models and theories are used extensively. In all such applications signal processing is embedded in the process. Artificial Neural Networks (ANN), because of their nonlinear, adaptive nature are well suited to such applications where the classical assumptions of linearity and second order Gaussian noise statistics cannot be made. ANN's can be treated as nonparametric techniques, which can model an underlying process from example data. They can also adopt their model parameters to statistical change with time. Algorithms in the framework of Neural Networks in Signal processing have found new applications potentials in the field of Nuclear Engineering. This paper reviews the fundamentals of Neural Networks in signal processing and their applications in tasks such as recognition/identification and control. The topics covered include dynamic modeling, model based ANN's, statistical learning, eigen structure based processing and generalization structures. (orig.)

  13. Türkiye’de Enflasyonun İleri ve Geri Beslemeli Yapay Sinir Ağlarının Melez Yaklaşımı ile Öngörüsü = Forecasting of Turkey Inflation with Hybrid of Feed Forward and Recurrent Artifical Neural Networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V. Rezan USLU

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available Obtaining the inflation prediction is an important problem. Having this prediction accurately will lead to more accurate decisions. Various time series techniques have been used in the literature for inflation prediction. Recently, Artificial Neural Network (ANN is being preferred in the time series prediction problem due to its flexible modeling capacity. Artificial neural network can be applied easily to any time series since it does not require prior conditions such as a linear or curved specific model pattern, stationary and normal distribution. In this study, the predictions have been obtained using the feed forward and recurrent artificial neural network for the Consumer Price Index (CPI. A new combined forecast has been proposed based on ANN in which the ANN model predictions employed in analysis were used as data.

  14. Entropy Learning in Neural Network

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Geok See Ng

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, entropy term is used in the learning phase of a neural network.  As learning progresses, more hidden nodes get into saturation.  The early creation of such hidden nodes may impair generalisation.  Hence entropy approach is proposed to dampen the early creation of such nodes.  The entropy learning also helps to increase the importance of relevant nodes while dampening the less important nodes.  At the end of learning, the less important nodes can then be eliminated to reduce the memory requirements of the neural network.

  15. Applications of neural networks to mechanics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1997-01-01

    Neural networks have become powerful tools in engineer's techniques. The aim of this conference was to present their application to concrete cases in the domain of mechanics, including the preparation and use of materials. Artificial neurons are non-linear organs which provide an output signal that depends on several differently weighted input signals. Their connection into networks allows to solve problems for which the driving laws are not well known. The applications discussed during this conference deal with: the driving of machines or processes, the control of machines, materials or products, the simulation and forecasting, and the optimization. Three papers dealing with the control of spark ignition engines, the regulation of heating floors and the optimization of energy consumptions in industrial buildings were selected for ETDE and one paper dealing with the optimization of the management of a reprocessed plutonium stock was selected for INIS. (J.S.)

  16. Artificial neural network detects human uncertainty

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hramov, Alexander E.; Frolov, Nikita S.; Maksimenko, Vladimir A.; Makarov, Vladimir V.; Koronovskii, Alexey A.; Garcia-Prieto, Juan; Antón-Toro, Luis Fernando; Maestú, Fernando; Pisarchik, Alexander N.

    2018-03-01

    Artificial neural networks (ANNs) are known to be a powerful tool for data analysis. They are used in social science, robotics, and neurophysiology for solving tasks of classification, forecasting, pattern recognition, etc. In neuroscience, ANNs allow the recognition of specific forms of brain activity from multichannel EEG or MEG data. This makes the ANN an efficient computational core for brain-machine systems. However, despite significant achievements of artificial intelligence in recognition and classification of well-reproducible patterns of neural activity, the use of ANNs for recognition and classification of patterns in neural networks still requires additional attention, especially in ambiguous situations. According to this, in this research, we demonstrate the efficiency of application of the ANN for classification of human MEG trials corresponding to the perception of bistable visual stimuli with different degrees of ambiguity. We show that along with classification of brain states associated with multistable image interpretations, in the case of significant ambiguity, the ANN can detect an uncertain state when the observer doubts about the image interpretation. With the obtained results, we describe the possible application of ANNs for detection of bistable brain activity associated with difficulties in the decision-making process.

  17. Hot metal temperature prediction by neural networks in the blast furnace

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cantera, C.; Jimenez, J.; Varela, I.; Formoso, A.

    2002-01-01

    Based on a simplified model, the underlying temperature criteria is proposed as a method to study the temperature trends in a blast furnace. As an application, a neural network able to forecast hot metal temperatures from 2 to 16 h in advance (with decreasing precision) has been built. This neural network has been designed to work at real time in a production plant. (Author)

  18. Application of artificial neural networks in the analysis of multi-particle data

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kunze, M.

    1995-01-01

    During the past years artificial neural networks (ANN) have gained increasing interest not only in the regime of financial forecast and data mining, but also in the field of particle physics. Up to now artificial neural networks have mostly been applied in high energy physics trigger studies. The use of ANNs in medium energy physics data analysis is summarized. (author). 21 refs., 9 figs

  19. Neural Network for Sparse Reconstruction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Qingfa Li

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available We construct a neural network based on smoothing approximation techniques and projected gradient method to solve a kind of sparse reconstruction problems. Neural network can be implemented by circuits and can be seen as an important method for solving optimization problems, especially large scale problems. Smoothing approximation is an efficient technique for solving nonsmooth optimization problems. We combine these two techniques to overcome the difficulties of the choices of the step size in discrete algorithms and the item in the set-valued map of differential inclusion. In theory, the proposed network can converge to the optimal solution set of the given problem. Furthermore, some numerical experiments show the effectiveness of the proposed network in this paper.

  20. Arabic Handwriting Recognition Using Neural Network Classifier

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    pc

    2018-03-05

    Mar 5, 2018 ... an OCR using Neural Network classifier preceded by a set of preprocessing .... Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs), which we adopt in this research, consist of ... advantage and disadvantages of each technique. In [9],. Khemiri ...

  1. Application of neural networks in coastal engineering

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Mandal, S.

    the neural network attractive. A neural network is an information processing system modeled on the structure of the dynamic process. It can solve the complex/nonlinear problems quickly once trained by operating on problems using an interconnected number...

  2. Neural networks and applications tutorial

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guyon, I.

    1991-09-01

    The importance of neural networks has grown dramatically during this decade. While only a few years ago they were primarily of academic interest, now dozens of companies and many universities are investigating the potential use of these systems and products are beginning to appear. The idea of building a machine whose architecture is inspired by that of the brain has roots which go far back in history. Nowadays, technological advances of computers and the availability of custom integrated circuits, permit simulations of hundreds or even thousands of neurons. In conjunction, the growing interest in learning machines, non-linear dynamics and parallel computation spurred renewed attention in artificial neural networks. Many tentative applications have been proposed, including decision systems (associative memories, classifiers, data compressors and optimizers), or parametric models for signal processing purposes (system identification, automatic control, noise canceling, etc.). While they do not always outperform standard methods, neural network approaches are already used in some real world applications for pattern recognition and signal processing tasks. The tutorial is divided into six lectures, that where presented at the Third Graduate Summer Course on Computational Physics (September 3-7, 1990) on Parallel Architectures and Applications, organized by the European Physical Society: (1) Introduction: machine learning and biological computation. (2) Adaptive artificial neurons (perceptron, ADALINE, sigmoid units, etc.): learning rules and implementations. (3) Neural network systems: architectures, learning algorithms. (4) Applications: pattern recognition, signal processing, etc. (5) Elements of learning theory: how to build networks which generalize. (6) A case study: a neural network for on-line recognition of handwritten alphanumeric characters.

  3. Adaptive Graph Convolutional Neural Networks

    OpenAIRE

    Li, Ruoyu; Wang, Sheng; Zhu, Feiyun; Huang, Junzhou

    2018-01-01

    Graph Convolutional Neural Networks (Graph CNNs) are generalizations of classical CNNs to handle graph data such as molecular data, point could and social networks. Current filters in graph CNNs are built for fixed and shared graph structure. However, for most real data, the graph structures varies in both size and connectivity. The paper proposes a generalized and flexible graph CNN taking data of arbitrary graph structure as input. In that way a task-driven adaptive graph is learned for eac...

  4. Deep Bidirectional and Unidirectional LSTM Recurrent Neural Network for Network-wide Traffic Speed Prediction

    OpenAIRE

    Cui, Zhiyong; Ke, Ruimin; Wang, Yinhai

    2018-01-01

    Short-term traffic forecasting based on deep learning methods, especially long short-term memory (LSTM) neural networks, has received much attention in recent years. However, the potential of deep learning methods in traffic forecasting has not yet fully been exploited in terms of the depth of the model architecture, the spatial scale of the prediction area, and the predictive power of spatial-temporal data. In this paper, a deep stacked bidirectional and unidirectional LSTM (SBU- LSTM) neura...

  5. Neural network to diagnose lining condition

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yemelyanov, V. A.; Yemelyanova, N. Y.; Nedelkin, A. A.; Zarudnaya, M. V.

    2018-03-01

    The paper presents data on the problem of diagnosing the lining condition at the iron and steel works. The authors describe the neural network structure and software that are designed and developed to determine the lining burnout zones. The simulation results of the proposed neural networks are presented. The authors note the low learning and classification errors of the proposed neural networks. To realize the proposed neural network, the specialized software has been developed.

  6. Wavelet neural networks with applications in financial engineering, chaos, and classification

    CERN Document Server

    Alexandridis, Antonios K

    2014-01-01

    Through extensive examples and case studies, Wavelet Neural Networks provides a step-by-step introduction to modeling, training, and forecasting using wavelet networks. The acclaimed authors present a statistical model identification framework to successfully apply wavelet networks in various applications, specifically, providing the mathematical and statistical framework needed for model selection, variable selection, wavelet network construction, initialization, training, forecasting and prediction, confidence intervals, prediction intervals, and model adequacy testing. The text is ideal for

  7. Medical Imaging with Neural Networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pattichis, C.; Cnstantinides, A.

    1994-01-01

    The objective of this paper is to provide an overview of the recent developments in the use of artificial neural networks in medical imaging. The areas of medical imaging that are covered include : ultrasound, magnetic resonance, nuclear medicine and radiological (including computerized tomography). (authors)

  8. Optoelectronic Implementation of Neural Networks

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    neural networks, such as learning, adapting and copying by means of parallel ... to provide robust recognition of hand-printed English text. Engine idle and misfiring .... and s represents the bounded activation function of a neuron. It is typically ...

  9. Aphasia Classification Using Neural Networks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Axer, H.; Jantzen, Jan; Berks, G.

    2000-01-01

    A web-based software model (http://fuzzy.iau.dtu.dk/aphasia.nsf) was developed as an example for classification of aphasia using neural networks. Two multilayer perceptrons were used to classify the type of aphasia (Broca, Wernicke, anomic, global) according to the results in some subtests...

  10. Intelligent neural network diagnostic system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mohamed, A.H.

    2010-01-01

    Recently, artificial neural network (ANN) has made a significant mark in the domain of diagnostic applications. Neural networks are used to implement complex non-linear mappings (functions) using simple elementary units interrelated through connections with adaptive weights. The performance of the ANN is mainly depending on their topology structure and weights. Some systems have been developed using genetic algorithm (GA) to optimize the topology of the ANN. But, they suffer from some limitations. They are : (1) The computation time requires for training the ANN several time reaching for the average weight required, (2) Slowness of GA for optimization process and (3) Fitness noise appeared in the optimization of ANN. This research suggests new issues to overcome these limitations for finding optimal neural network architectures to learn particular problems. This proposed methodology is used to develop a diagnostic neural network system. It has been applied for a 600 MW turbo-generator as a case of real complex systems. The proposed system has proved its significant performance compared to two common methods used in the diagnostic applications.

  11. Medical Imaging with Neural Networks

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pattichis, C [Department of Computer Science, University of Cyprus, Kallipoleos 75, P.O.Box 537, Nicosia (Cyprus); Cnstantinides, A [Department of Electrical Engineering, Imperial College of Science, Technology and Medicine, London SW7 2BT (United Kingdom)

    1994-12-31

    The objective of this paper is to provide an overview of the recent developments in the use of artificial neural networks in medical imaging. The areas of medical imaging that are covered include : ultrasound, magnetic resonance, nuclear medicine and radiological (including computerized tomography). (authors). 61 refs, 4 tabs.

  12. Numerical experiments with neural networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Miranda, Enrique.

    1990-01-01

    Neural networks are highly idealized models which, in spite of their simplicity, reproduce some key features of the real brain. In this paper, they are introduced at a level adequate for an undergraduate computational physics course. Some relevant magnitudes are defined and evaluated numerically for the Hopfield model and a short term memory model. (Author)

  13. Spin glasses and neural networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Parga, N.; Universidad Nacional de Cuyo, San Carlos de Bariloche

    1989-01-01

    The mean-field theory of spin glass models has been used as a prototype of systems with frustration and disorder. One of the most interesting related systems are models of associative memories. In these lectures we review the main concepts developed to solve the Sherrington-Kirkpatrick model and its application to neural networks. (orig.)

  14. Simplified LQG Control with Neural Networks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sørensen, O.

    1997-01-01

    A new neural network application for non-linear state control is described. One neural network is modelled to form a Kalmann predictor and trained to act as an optimal state observer for a non-linear process. Another neural network is modelled to form a state controller and trained to produce...

  15. Analysis of neural networks through base functions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van der Zwaag, B.J.; Slump, Cornelis H.; Spaanenburg, L.

    Problem statement. Despite their success-story, neural networks have one major disadvantage compared to other techniques: the inability to explain comprehensively how a trained neural network reaches its output; neural networks are not only (incorrectly) seen as a "magic tool" but possibly even more

  16. Genetic Algorithm Optimized Neural Networks Ensemble as ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    NJD

    Improvements in neural network calibration models by a novel approach using neural network ensemble (NNE) for the simultaneous ... process by training a number of neural networks. .... Matlab® version 6.1 was employed for building principal component ... provide a fair simulation of calibration data set with some degree.

  17. Type-2 fuzzy neural networks and their applications

    CERN Document Server

    Aliev, Rafik Aziz

    2014-01-01

    This book deals with the theory, design principles, and application of hybrid intelligent systems using type-2 fuzzy sets in combination with other paradigms of Soft Computing technology such as Neuro-Computing and Evolutionary Computing. It provides a self-contained exposition of the foundation of type-2 fuzzy neural networks and presents a vast compendium of its applications to control, forecasting, decision making, system identification and other real problems. Type-2 Fuzzy Neural Networks and Their Applications is helpful for teachers and students of universities and colleges, for scientis

  18. Adaptive competitive learning neural networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ahmed R. Abas

    2013-11-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, the adaptive competitive learning (ACL neural network algorithm is proposed. This neural network not only groups similar input feature vectors together but also determines the appropriate number of groups of these vectors. This algorithm uses a new proposed criterion referred to as the ACL criterion. This criterion evaluates different clustering structures produced by the ACL neural network for an input data set. Then, it selects the best clustering structure and the corresponding network architecture for this data set. The selected structure is composed of the minimum number of clusters that are compact and balanced in their sizes. The selected network architecture is efficient, in terms of its complexity, as it contains the minimum number of neurons. Synaptic weight vectors of these neurons represent well-separated, compact and balanced clusters in the input data set. The performance of the ACL algorithm is evaluated and compared with the performance of a recently proposed algorithm in the literature in clustering an input data set and determining its number of clusters. Results show that the ACL algorithm is more accurate and robust in both determining the number of clusters and allocating input feature vectors into these clusters than the other algorithm especially with data sets that are sparsely distributed.

  19. Optical resonators and neural networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anderson, Dana Z.

    1986-08-01

    It may be possible to implement neural network models using continuous field optical architectures. These devices offer the inherent parallelism of propagating waves and an information density in principle dictated by the wavelength of light and the quality of the bulk optical elements. Few components are needed to construct a relatively large equivalent network. Various associative memories based on optical resonators have been demonstrated in the literature, a ring resonator design is discussed in detail here. Information is stored in a holographic medium and recalled through a competitive processes in the gain medium supplying energy to the ring rsonator. The resonator memory is the first realized example of a neural network function implemented with this kind of architecture.

  20. Prediction of welding shrinkage deformation of bridge steel box girder based on wavelet neural network

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tao, Yulong; Miao, Yunshui; Han, Jiaqi; Yan, Feiyun

    2018-05-01

    Aiming at the low accuracy of traditional forecasting methods such as linear regression method, this paper presents a prediction method for predicting the relationship between bridge steel box girder and its displacement with wavelet neural network. Compared with traditional forecasting methods, this scheme has better local characteristics and learning ability, which greatly improves the prediction ability of deformation. Through analysis of the instance and found that after compared with the traditional prediction method based on wavelet neural network, the rigid beam deformation prediction accuracy is higher, and is superior to the BP neural network prediction results, conform to the actual demand of engineering design.

  1. Photon spectrometry utilizing neural networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Silveira, R.; Benevides, C.; Lima, F.; Vilela, E.

    2015-01-01

    Having in mind the time spent on the uneventful work of characterization of the radiation beams used in a ionizing radiation metrology laboratory, the Metrology Service of the Centro Regional de Ciencias Nucleares do Nordeste - CRCN-NE verified the applicability of artificial intelligence (artificial neural networks) to perform the spectrometry in photon fields. For this, was developed a multilayer neural network, as an application for the classification of patterns in energy, associated with a thermoluminescent dosimetric system (TLD-700 and TLD-600). A set of dosimeters was initially exposed to various well known medium energies, between 40 keV and 1.2 MeV, coinciding with the beams determined by ISO 4037 standard, for the dose of 10 mSv in the quantity Hp(10), on a chest phantom (ISO slab phantom) with the purpose of generating a set of training data for the neural network. Subsequently, a new set of dosimeters irradiated in unknown energies was presented to the network with the purpose to test the method. The methodology used in this work was suitable for application in the classification of energy beams, having obtained 100% of the classification performed. (authors)

  2. IMNN: Information Maximizing Neural Networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Charnock, Tom; Lavaux, Guilhem; Wandelt, Benjamin D.

    2018-04-01

    This software trains artificial neural networks to find non-linear functionals of data that maximize Fisher information: information maximizing neural networks (IMNNs). As compressing large data sets vastly simplifies both frequentist and Bayesian inference, important information may be inadvertently missed. Likelihood-free inference based on automatically derived IMNN summaries produces summaries that are good approximations to sufficient statistics. IMNNs are robustly capable of automatically finding optimal, non-linear summaries of the data even in cases where linear compression fails: inferring the variance of Gaussian signal in the presence of noise, inferring cosmological parameters from mock simulations of the Lyman-α forest in quasar spectra, and inferring frequency-domain parameters from LISA-like detections of gravitational waveforms. In this final case, the IMNN summary outperforms linear data compression by avoiding the introduction of spurious likelihood maxima.

  3. Neural Networks Methodology and Applications

    CERN Document Server

    Dreyfus, Gérard

    2005-01-01

    Neural networks represent a powerful data processing technique that has reached maturity and broad application. When clearly understood and appropriately used, they are a mandatory component in the toolbox of any engineer who wants make the best use of the available data, in order to build models, make predictions, mine data, recognize shapes or signals, etc. Ranging from theoretical foundations to real-life applications, this book is intended to provide engineers and researchers with clear methodologies for taking advantage of neural networks in industrial, financial or banking applications, many instances of which are presented in the book. For the benefit of readers wishing to gain deeper knowledge of the topics, the book features appendices that provide theoretical details for greater insight, and algorithmic details for efficient programming and implementation. The chapters have been written by experts ands seemlessly edited to present a coherent and comprehensive, yet not redundant, practically-oriented...

  4. Scheduling with artificial neural networks

    OpenAIRE

    Gürgün, Burçkaan

    1993-01-01

    Ankara : Department of Industrial Engineering and The Institute of Engineering and Sciences of Bilkent Univ., 1993. Thesis (Master's) -- Bilkent University, 1993. Includes bibliographical references leaves 59-65. Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) attempt to emulate the massively parallel and distributed processing of the human brain. They are being examined for a variety of problems that have been very difficult to solve. The objective of this thesis is to review the curren...

  5. The LILARTI neural network system

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Allen, J.D. Jr.; Schell, F.M.; Dodd, C.V.

    1992-10-01

    The material of this Technical Memorandum is intended to provide the reader with conceptual and technical background information on the LILARTI neural network system of detail sufficient to confer an understanding of the LILARTI method as it is presently allied and to facilitate application of the method to problems beyond the scope of this document. Of particular importance in this regard are the descriptive sections and the Appendices which include operating instructions, partial listings of program output and data files, and network construction information.

  6. Parameterization Of Solar Radiation Using Neural Network

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jiya, J. D.; Alfa, B.

    2002-01-01

    This paper presents a neural network technique for parameterization of global solar radiation. The available data from twenty-one stations is used for training the neural network and the data from other ten stations is used to validate the neural model. The neural network utilizes latitude, longitude, altitude, sunshine duration and period number to parameterize solar radiation values. The testing data was not used in the training to demonstrate the performance of the neural network in unknown stations to parameterize solar radiation. The results indicate a good agreement between the parameterized solar radiation values and actual measured values

  7. Neural Networks in Control Applications

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sørensen, O.

    are examined. The models are separated into three groups representing input/output descriptions as well as state space descriptions: - Models, where all in- and outputs are measurable (static networks). - Models, where some inputs are non-measurable (recurrent networks). - Models, where some in- and some...... outputs are non-measurable (recurrent networks with incomplete state information). The three groups are ordered in increasing complexity, and for each group it is shown how to solve the problems concerning training and application of the specific model type. Of particular interest are the model types...... Kalmann filter) representing state space description. The potentials of neural networks for control of non-linear processes are also examined, focusing on three different groups of control concepts, all considered as generalizations of known linear control concepts to handle also non-linear processes...

  8. Using Adaptive Neural-Fuzzy Inference Systems (ANFIS for Demand Forecasting and an Application

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Onur Doğan

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Due to the rapid increase in global competition among organizations and companies, rational approaches in decision making have become indispensable for organizations in today’s world. Establishing a safe and robust path through uncertainties and risks depends on the decision units’ ability of using scientific methods as well as technology. Demand forecasting is known to be one of the most critical problems in organizations.  A company which supports its demand forecasting mechanism with scientific methodologies could increase its productivity and efficiency in all other functions. New methods, such as fuzzy logic and artificial neural networks are frequently being used as a decision-making mechanism in organizations and companies recently.  In this study, it is aimed to solve a critical demand forecasting problem with ANFIS. In the first phase of the study, the factors which impact demand forecasting are determined, and then a database of the model is established using these factors. It has been shown that ANFIS could be used for demand forecasting.

  9. ATHENS SEASONAL VARIATION OF GROUND RESISTANCE PREDICTION USING NEURAL NETWORKS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Anbazhagan

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available The objective in ground resistance is to attain the most minimal ground safety esteem conceivable that bodes well monetarily and physically. An application of artificial neural networks (ANN to presage and relegation has been growing rapidly due to sundry unique characteristics of ANN models. A decent forecast is able to capture the dubiousness associated with those ground resistance. A portion of the key instabilities are soil composition, moisture content, temperature, ground electrodes and spacing of the electrodes. Propelled by this need, this paper endeavors to develop a generalized regression neural network (GRNN to predict the ground resistance. The GRNN has a single design parameter and expeditious learning and efficacious modeling for nonlinear time series. The precision of the forecast is applied to the Athens seasonal variation of ground resistance that shows the efficacy of the proposed approach.

  10. Back-propagation neural network in tidal-level forecasting by Ching-PiaoTsai and Tsong-Lin Lee - Discussion

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Mandal, S.

    relevance to the practicing engineer. Such a scheme of updating parameters (connection weights in the case of neu- ral network) is not employed in the suggested ANN model; thus, the ANN model, where the parameters are estimated from only one-day data... term hourly tidal records. However, there are a number of points to be clarified in order to better understand the paper. This discussion focuses on the following four areas: (1) terminology used in the paper; (2) practical utility; (3) reliability...

  11. Nonlinear Time Series Prediction Using Chaotic Neural Networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Ke-Ping; Chen, Tian-Lun

    2001-06-01

    A nonlinear feedback term is introduced into the evaluation equation of weights of the backpropagation algorithm for neural network, the network becomes a chaotic one. For the purpose of that we can investigate how the different feedback terms affect the process of learning and forecasting, we use the model to forecast the nonlinear time series which is produced by Makey-Glass equation. By selecting the suitable feedback term, the system can escape from the local minima and converge to the global minimum or its approximate solutions, and the forecasting results are better than those of backpropagation algorithm. The project supported by National Basic Research Project "Nonlinear Science" and National Natural Science Foundation of China under Grant No. 60074020

  12. Workshop on environmental and energy applications of neural networks

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hashem, S.

    1995-03-01

    This report consists of the abstracts for the papers given at the conference. Applications of neural networks in the environmental, energy and biomedical fields are discussed. Some of the topics covered are: predicting atmospheric pollutant concentrations due to fossil-fired electric power generation; hazardous waste characterization; nondestructive TRU (transuranic) waste assay; risk analysis; load forecasting for electric utilities; design of a wind power storage and generation system; nuclear fuel management; etc.

  13. Workshop on environmental and energy applications of neural networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hashem, S.

    1995-03-01

    This report consists of the abstracts for the papers given at the conference. Applications of neural networks in the environmental, energy and biomedical fields are discussed. Some of the topics covered are: predicting atmospheric pollutant concentrations due to fossil-fired electric power generation; hazardous waste characterization; nondestructive TRU (transuranic) waste assay; risk analysis; load forecasting for electric utilities; design of a wind power storage and generation system; nuclear fuel management; etc

  14. The application of artificial neural network in radon disaster model of uranium mining

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhu Yufeng; Zhu Guogen; Zhou Shijian

    2012-01-01

    The structural features, data analysis and learning process of feed-forward neural network (BP ANN) were analyzed at first. Rodon sample from Fuzhou Jinan Uranium Industry Limited Company were used to training the network and make the forecast then, and a forecasting model was established for the radon disaster in uranium mines. The method and effectiveness of BP neural network in predicting radon disaster was discussed. The test of training samples showed that the BP network had gotten fairly satisfied result in predicting mine radon disaster. (authors)

  15. Practical neural network recipies in C++

    CERN Document Server

    Masters

    2014-01-01

    This text serves as a cookbook for neural network solutions to practical problems using C++. It will enable those with moderate programming experience to select a neural network model appropriate to solving a particular problem, and to produce a working program implementing that network. The book provides guidance along the entire problem-solving path, including designing the training set, preprocessing variables, training and validating the network, and evaluating its performance. Though the book is not intended as a general course in neural networks, no background in neural works is assum

  16. Neural network modeling of emotion

    Science.gov (United States)

    Levine, Daniel S.

    2007-03-01

    This article reviews the history and development of computational neural network modeling of cognitive and behavioral processes that involve emotion. The exposition starts with models of classical conditioning dating from the early 1970s. Then it proceeds toward models of interactions between emotion and attention. Then models of emotional influences on decision making are reviewed, including some speculative (not and not yet simulated) models of the evolution of decision rules. Through the late 1980s, the neural networks developed to model emotional processes were mainly embodiments of significant functional principles motivated by psychological data. In the last two decades, network models of these processes have become much more detailed in their incorporation of known physiological properties of specific brain regions, while preserving many of the psychological principles from the earlier models. Most network models of emotional processes so far have dealt with positive and negative emotion in general, rather than specific emotions such as fear, joy, sadness, and anger. But a later section of this article reviews a few models relevant to specific emotions: one family of models of auditory fear conditioning in rats, and one model of induced pleasure enhancing creativity in humans. Then models of emotional disorders are reviewed. The article concludes with philosophical statements about the essential contributions of emotion to intelligent behavior and the importance of quantitative theories and models to the interdisciplinary enterprise of understanding the interactions of emotion, cognition, and behavior.

  17. An enhanced radial basis function network for short-term electricity price forecasting

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lin, Whei-Min; Gow, Hong-Jey; Tsai, Ming-Tang

    2010-01-01

    This paper proposed a price forecasting system for electric market participants to reduce the risk of price volatility. Combining the Radial Basis Function Network (RBFN) and Orthogonal Experimental Design (OED), an Enhanced Radial Basis Function Network (ERBFN) has been proposed for the solving process. The Locational Marginal Price (LMP), system load, transmission flow and temperature of the PJM system were collected and the data clusters were embedded in the Excel Database according to the year, season, workday and weekend. With the OED applied to learning rates in the ERBFN, the forecasting error can be reduced during the training process to improve both accuracy and reliability. This would mean that even the ''spikes'' could be tracked closely. The Back-propagation Neural Network (BPN), Probability Neural Network (PNN), other algorithms, and the proposed ERBFN were all developed and compared to check the performance. Simulation results demonstrated the effectiveness of the proposed ERBFN to provide quality information in a price volatile environment. (author)

  18. MEMBRAIN NEURAL NETWORK FOR VISUAL PATTERN RECOGNITION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Artur Popko

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available Recognition of visual patterns is one of significant applications of Artificial Neural Networks, which partially emulate human thinking in the domain of artificial intelligence. In the paper, a simplified neural approach to recognition of visual patterns is portrayed and discussed. This paper is dedicated for investigators in visual patterns recognition, Artificial Neural Networking and related disciplines. The document describes also MemBrain application environment as a powerful and easy to use neural networks’ editor and simulator supporting ANN.

  19. Data-driven forecasting of high-dimensional chaotic systems with long short-term memory networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vlachas, Pantelis R; Byeon, Wonmin; Wan, Zhong Y; Sapsis, Themistoklis P; Koumoutsakos, Petros

    2018-05-01

    We introduce a data-driven forecasting method for high-dimensional chaotic systems using long short-term memory (LSTM) recurrent neural networks. The proposed LSTM neural networks perform inference of high-dimensional dynamical systems in their reduced order space and are shown to be an effective set of nonlinear approximators of their attractor. We demonstrate the forecasting performance of the LSTM and compare it with Gaussian processes (GPs) in time series obtained from the Lorenz 96 system, the Kuramoto-Sivashinsky equation and a prototype climate model. The LSTM networks outperform the GPs in short-term forecasting accuracy in all applications considered. A hybrid architecture, extending the LSTM with a mean stochastic model (MSM-LSTM), is proposed to ensure convergence to the invariant measure. This novel hybrid method is fully data-driven and extends the forecasting capabilities of LSTM networks.

  20. Dynamic training algorithm for dynamic neural networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tan, Y.; Van Cauwenberghe, A.; Liu, Z.

    1996-01-01

    The widely used backpropagation algorithm for training neural networks based on the gradient descent has a significant drawback of slow convergence. A Gauss-Newton method based recursive least squares (RLS) type algorithm with dynamic error backpropagation is presented to speed-up the learning procedure of neural networks with local recurrent terms. Finally, simulation examples concerning the applications of the RLS type algorithm to identification of nonlinear processes using a local recurrent neural network are also included in this paper

  1. Adaptive optimization and control using neural networks

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mead, W.C.; Brown, S.K.; Jones, R.D.; Bowling, P.S.; Barnes, C.W.

    1993-10-22

    Recent work has demonstrated the ability of neural-network-based controllers to optimize and control machines with complex, non-linear, relatively unknown control spaces. We present a brief overview of neural networks via a taxonomy illustrating some capabilities of different kinds of neural networks. We present some successful control examples, particularly the optimization and control of a small-angle negative ion source.

  2. Fuzzy neural network theory and application

    CERN Document Server

    Liu, Puyin

    2004-01-01

    This book systematically synthesizes research achievements in the field of fuzzy neural networks in recent years. It also provides a comprehensive presentation of the developments in fuzzy neural networks, with regard to theory as well as their application to system modeling and image restoration. Special emphasis is placed on the fundamental concepts and architecture analysis of fuzzy neural networks. The book is unique in treating all kinds of fuzzy neural networks and their learning algorithms and universal approximations, and employing simulation examples which are carefully designed to he

  3. Boolean Factor Analysis by Attractor Neural Network

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Frolov, A. A.; Húsek, Dušan; Muraviev, I. P.; Polyakov, P.Y.

    2007-01-01

    Roč. 18, č. 3 (2007), s. 698-707 ISSN 1045-9227 R&D Projects: GA AV ČR 1ET100300419; GA ČR GA201/05/0079 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z10300504 Keywords : recurrent neural network * Hopfield-like neural network * associative memory * unsupervised learning * neural network architecture * neural network application * statistics * Boolean factor analysis * dimensionality reduction * features clustering * concepts search * information retrieval Subject RIV: BB - Applied Statistics, Operational Research Impact factor: 2.769, year: 2007

  4. Finite connectivity attractor neural networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wemmenhove, B; Coolen, A C C

    2003-01-01

    We study a family of diluted attractor neural networks with a finite average number of (symmetric) connections per neuron. As in finite connectivity spin glasses, their equilibrium properties are described by order parameter functions, for which we derive an integral equation in replica symmetric approximation. A bifurcation analysis of this equation reveals the locations of the paramagnetic to recall and paramagnetic to spin-glass transition lines in the phase diagram. The line separating the retrieval phase from the spin-glass phase is calculated at zero temperature. All phase transitions are found to be continuous

  5. Raingauge-Based Rainfall Nowcasting with Artificial Neural Network

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liong, Shie-Yui; He, Shan

    2010-05-01

    Rainfall forecasting and nowcasting are of great importance, for instance, in real-time flood early warning systems. Long term rainfall forecasting demands global climate, land, and sea data, thus, large computing power and storage capacity are required. Rainfall nowcasting's computing requirement, on the other hand, is much less. Rainfall nowcasting may use data captured by radar and/or weather stations. This paper presents the application of Artificial Neural Network (ANN) on rainfall nowcasting using data observed at weather and/or rainfall stations. The study focuses on the North-East monsoon period (December, January and February) in Singapore. Rainfall and weather data from ten stations, between 2000 and 2006, were selected and divided into three groups for training, over-fitting test and validation of the ANN. Several neural network architectures were tried in the study. Two architectures, Backpropagation ANN and Group Method of Data Handling ANN, yielded better rainfall nowcasting, up to two hours, than the other architectures. The obtained rainfall nowcasts were then used by a catchment model to forecast catchment runoff. The results of runoff forecast are encouraging and promising.With ANN's high computational speed, the proposed approach may be deliverable for creating the real-time flood early warning system.

  6. The Laplacian spectrum of neural networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Lange, Siemon C.; de Reus, Marcel A.; van den Heuvel, Martijn P.

    2014-01-01

    The brain is a complex network of neural interactions, both at the microscopic and macroscopic level. Graph theory is well suited to examine the global network architecture of these neural networks. Many popular graph metrics, however, encode average properties of individual network elements. Complementing these “conventional” graph metrics, the eigenvalue spectrum of the normalized Laplacian describes a network's structure directly at a systems level, without referring to individual nodes or connections. In this paper, the Laplacian spectra of the macroscopic anatomical neuronal networks of the macaque and cat, and the microscopic network of the Caenorhabditis elegans were examined. Consistent with conventional graph metrics, analysis of the Laplacian spectra revealed an integrative community structure in neural brain networks. Extending previous findings of overlap of network attributes across species, similarity of the Laplacian spectra across the cat, macaque and C. elegans neural networks suggests a certain level of consistency in the overall architecture of the anatomical neural networks of these species. Our results further suggest a specific network class for neural networks, distinct from conceptual small-world and scale-free models as well as several empirical networks. PMID:24454286

  7. FPGA-Based Stochastic Echo State Networks for Time-Series Forecasting.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alomar, Miquel L; Canals, Vincent; Perez-Mora, Nicolas; Martínez-Moll, Víctor; Rosselló, Josep L

    2016-01-01

    Hardware implementation of artificial neural networks (ANNs) allows exploiting the inherent parallelism of these systems. Nevertheless, they require a large amount of resources in terms of area and power dissipation. Recently, Reservoir Computing (RC) has arisen as a strategic technique to design recurrent neural networks (RNNs) with simple learning capabilities. In this work, we show a new approach to implement RC systems with digital gates. The proposed method is based on the use of probabilistic computing concepts to reduce the hardware required to implement different arithmetic operations. The result is the development of a highly functional system with low hardware resources. The presented methodology is applied to chaotic time-series forecasting.

  8. Forecasting of rainfall using ocean-atmospheric indices with a fuzzy neural technique

    Science.gov (United States)

    Srivastava, Gaurav; Panda, Sudhindra N.; Mondal, Pratap; Liu, Junguo

    2010-12-01

    SummaryForecasting of rainfall is imperative for rainfed agriculture of arid and semi-arid regions of the world where agriculture consumes nearly 80% of the total water demand. Fuzzy-Ranking Algorithm (FRA) is used to identify the significant input variables for rainfall forecast. A case study is carried out to forecast monthly rainfall in India with several ocean-atmospheric predictor variables. Three different scenarios of ocean-atmospheric predictor variables are used as a set of possible input variables for rainfall forecasting model: (1) two climate indices, i.e. Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) and Pacific Decadal Oscillation Index (PDOI); (2) Sea Surface Temperature anomalies (SSTa) in the 5° × 5° grid points in Indian Ocean; and (3) both the climate indices and SSTa. To generate a set of possible input variables for these scenarios, we use climatic indices and the SSTa data with different lags between 1 and 12 months. Nonlinear relationship between identified inputs and rainfall is captured with an Artificial Neural Network (ANN) technique. A new approach based on fuzzy c-mean clustering is proposed for dividing data into representative subsets for training, testing, and validation. The results show that this proposed approach overcomes the difficulty in determining optimal numbers of clusters associated with the data division technique of self-organized map. The ANN model developed with both the climate indices and SSTa shows the best performance for the forecast of the monthly August rainfall in India. Similar approach can be applied to forecast rainfall of any period at selected climatic regions of the world where significant relationship exists between the rainfall and climate indices.

  9. Neural networks with discontinuous/impact activations

    CERN Document Server

    Akhmet, Marat

    2014-01-01

    This book presents as its main subject new models in mathematical neuroscience. A wide range of neural networks models with discontinuities are discussed, including impulsive differential equations, differential equations with piecewise constant arguments, and models of mixed type. These models involve discontinuities, which are natural because huge velocities and short distances are usually observed in devices modeling the networks. A discussion of the models, appropriate for the proposed applications, is also provided. This book also: Explores questions related to the biological underpinning for models of neural networks\\ Considers neural networks modeling using differential equations with impulsive and piecewise constant argument discontinuities Provides all necessary mathematical basics for application to the theory of neural networks Neural Networks with Discontinuous/Impact Activations is an ideal book for researchers and professionals in the field of engineering mathematics that have an interest in app...

  10. Comparison of four Adaboost algorithm based artificial neural networks in wind speed predictions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Liu, Hui; Tian, Hong-qi; Li, Yan-fei; Zhang, Lei

    2015-01-01

    Highlights: • Four hybrid algorithms are proposed for the wind speed decomposition. • Adaboost algorithm is adopted to provide a hybrid training framework. • MLP neural networks are built to do the forecasting computation. • Four important network training algorithms are included in the MLP networks. • All the proposed hybrid algorithms are suitable for the wind speed predictions. - Abstract: The technology of wind speed prediction is important to guarantee the safety of wind power utilization. In this paper, four different hybrid methods are proposed for the high-precision multi-step wind speed predictions based on the Adaboost (Adaptive Boosting) algorithm and the MLP (Multilayer Perceptron) neural networks. In the hybrid Adaboost–MLP forecasting architecture, four important algorithms are adopted for the training and modeling of the MLP neural networks, including GD-ALR-BP algorithm, GDM-ALR-BP algorithm, CG-BP-FR algorithm and BFGS algorithm. The aim of the study is to investigate the promoted forecasting percentages of the MLP neural networks by the Adaboost algorithm’ optimization under various training algorithms. The hybrid models in the performance comparison include Adaboost–GD-ALR-BP–MLP, Adaboost–GDM-ALR-BP–MLP, Adaboost–CG-BP-FR–MLP, Adaboost–BFGS–MLP, GD-ALR-BP–MLP, GDM-ALR-BP–MLP, CG-BP-FR–MLP and BFGS–MLP. Two experimental results show that: (1) the proposed hybrid Adaboost–MLP forecasting architecture is effective for the wind speed predictions; (2) the Adaboost algorithm has promoted the forecasting performance of the MLP neural networks considerably; (3) among the proposed Adaboost–MLP forecasting models, the Adaboost–CG-BP-FR–MLP model has the best performance; and (4) the improved percentages of the MLP neural networks by the Adaboost algorithm decrease step by step with the following sequence of training algorithms as: GD-ALR-BP, GDM-ALR-BP, CG-BP-FR and BFGS

  11. Multistability in bidirectional associative memory neural networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Huang Gan; Cao Jinde

    2008-01-01

    In this Letter, the multistability issue is studied for Bidirectional Associative Memory (BAM) neural networks. Based on the existence and stability analysis of the neural networks with or without delay, it is found that the 2n-dimensional networks can have 3 n equilibria and 2 n equilibria of them are locally exponentially stable, where each layer of the BAM network has n neurons. Furthermore, the results has been extended to (n+m)-dimensional BAM neural networks, where there are n and m neurons on the two layers respectively. Finally, two numerical examples are presented to illustrate the validity of our results

  12. Multistability in bidirectional associative memory neural networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Gan; Cao, Jinde

    2008-04-01

    In this Letter, the multistability issue is studied for Bidirectional Associative Memory (BAM) neural networks. Based on the existence and stability analysis of the neural networks with or without delay, it is found that the 2 n-dimensional networks can have 3 equilibria and 2 equilibria of them are locally exponentially stable, where each layer of the BAM network has n neurons. Furthermore, the results has been extended to (n+m)-dimensional BAM neural networks, where there are n and m neurons on the two layers respectively. Finally, two numerical examples are presented to illustrate the validity of our results.

  13. Drift chamber tracking with neural networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lindsey, C.S.; Denby, B.; Haggerty, H.

    1992-10-01

    We discuss drift chamber tracking with a commercial log VLSI neural network chip. Voltages proportional to the drift times in a 4-layer drift chamber were presented to the Intel ETANN chip. The network was trained to provide the intercept and slope of straight tracks traversing the chamber. The outputs were recorded and later compared off line to conventional track fits. Two types of network architectures were studied. Applications of neural network tracking to high energy physics detector triggers is discussed

  14. Neural Network Based Load Frequency Control for Restructuring ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Neural Network Based Load Frequency Control for Restructuring Power Industry. ... an artificial neural network (ANN) application of load frequency control (LFC) of a Multi-Area power system by using a neural network controller is presented.

  15. Hidden neural networks: application to speech recognition

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Riis, Søren Kamaric

    1998-01-01

    We evaluate the hidden neural network HMM/NN hybrid on two speech recognition benchmark tasks; (1) task independent isolated word recognition on the Phonebook database, and (2) recognition of broad phoneme classes in continuous speech from the TIMIT database. It is shown how hidden neural networks...

  16. Neural Network Classifier Based on Growing Hyperspheres

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Jiřina Jr., Marcel; Jiřina, Marcel

    2000-01-01

    Roč. 10, č. 3 (2000), s. 417-428 ISSN 1210-0552. [Neural Network World 2000. Prague, 09.07.2000-12.07.2000] Grant - others:MŠMT ČR(CZ) VS96047; MPO(CZ) RP-4210 Institutional research plan: AV0Z1030915 Keywords : neural network * classifier * hyperspheres * big -dimensional data Subject RIV: BA - General Mathematics

  17. Neural Networks for Non-linear Control

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sørensen, O.

    1994-01-01

    This paper describes how a neural network, structured as a Multi Layer Perceptron, is trained to predict, simulate and control a non-linear process.......This paper describes how a neural network, structured as a Multi Layer Perceptron, is trained to predict, simulate and control a non-linear process....

  18. Interpretable neural networks with BP-SOM

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Weijters, A.J.M.M.; Bosch, van den A.P.J.; Pobil, del A.P.; Mira, J.; Ali, M.

    1998-01-01

    Artificial Neural Networks (ANNS) are used successfully in industry and commerce. This is not surprising since neural networks are especially competitive for complex tasks for which insufficient domain-specific knowledge is available. However, interpretation of models induced by ANNS is often

  19. The neural network approach to parton fitting

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rojo, Joan; Latorre, Jose I.; Del Debbio, Luigi; Forte, Stefano; Piccione, Andrea

    2005-01-01

    We introduce the neural network approach to global fits of parton distribution functions. First we review previous work on unbiased parametrizations of deep-inelastic structure functions with faithful estimation of their uncertainties, and then we summarize the current status of neural network parton distribution fits

  20. Neural Network to Solve Concave Games

    OpenAIRE

    Liu, Zixin; Wang, Nengfa

    2014-01-01

    The issue on neural network method to solve concave games is concerned. Combined with variational inequality, Ky Fan inequality, and projection equation, concave games are transformed into a neural network model. On the basis of the Lyapunov stable theory, some stability results are also given. Finally, two classic games’ simulation results are given to illustrate the theoretical results.

  1. Neural Network Algorithm for Particle Loading

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lewandowski, J.L.V.

    2003-01-01

    An artificial neural network algorithm for continuous minimization is developed and applied to the case of numerical particle loading. It is shown that higher-order moments of the probability distribution function can be efficiently renormalized using this technique. A general neural network for the renormalization of an arbitrary number of moments is given

  2. Memory in Neural Networks and Glasses

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Heerema, M.

    2000-01-01

    The thesis tries and models a neural network in a way which, at essential points, is biologically realistic. In a biological context, the changes of the synapses of the neural network are most often described by what is called `Hebb's learning rule'. On careful analysis it is, in fact, nothing but a

  3. Direct adaptive control using feedforward neural networks

    OpenAIRE

    Cajueiro, Daniel Oliveira; Hemerly, Elder Moreira

    2003-01-01

    ABSTRACT: This paper proposes a new scheme for direct neural adaptive control that works efficiently employing only one neural network, used for simultaneously identifying and controlling the plant. The idea behind this structure of adaptive control is to compensate the control input obtained by a conventional feedback controller. The neural network training process is carried out by using two different techniques: backpropagation and extended Kalman filter algorithm. Additionally, the conver...

  4. Introduction to Concepts in Artificial Neural Networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Niebur, Dagmar

    1995-01-01

    This introduction to artificial neural networks summarizes some basic concepts of computational neuroscience and the resulting models of artificial neurons. The terminology of biological and artificial neurons, biological and machine learning and neural processing is introduced. The concepts of supervised and unsupervised learning are explained with examples from the power system area. Finally, a taxonomy of different types of neurons and different classes of artificial neural networks is presented.

  5. Thermal photovoltaic solar integrated system analysis using neural networks

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ashhab, S. [Hashemite Univ., Zarqa (Jordan). Dept. of Mechanical Engineering

    2007-07-01

    The energy demand in Jordan is primarily met by petroleum products. As such, the development of renewable energy systems is quite attractive. In particular, solar energy is a promising renewable energy source in Jordan and has been used for food canning, paper production, air-conditioning and sterilization. Artificial neural networks (ANNs) have received significant attention due to their capabilities in forecasting, modelling of complex nonlinear systems and control. ANNs have been used for forecasting solar energy. This paper presented a study that examined a thermal photovoltaic solar integrated system that was built in Jordan. Historical input-output system data that was collected experimentally was used to train an ANN that predicted the collector, PV module, pump and total efficiencies. The model predicted the efficiencies well and can therefore be utilized to find the operating conditions of the system that will produce the maximum system efficiencies. The paper provided a description of the photovoltaic solar system including equations for PV module efficiency; pump efficiency; and total efficiency. The paper also presented data relevant to the system performance and neural networks. The results of a neural net model were also presented based on the thermal PV solar integrated system data that was collected. It was concluded that the neural net model of the thermal photovoltaic solar integrated system set the background for achieving the best system performance. 10 refs., 6 figs.

  6. Signal Processing and Neural Network Simulator

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tebbe, Dennis L.; Billhartz, Thomas J.; Doner, John R.; Kraft, Timothy T.

    1995-04-01

    The signal processing and neural network simulator (SPANNS) is a digital signal processing simulator with the capability to invoke neural networks into signal processing chains. This is a generic tool which will greatly facilitate the design and simulation of systems with embedded neural networks. The SPANNS is based on the Signal Processing WorkSystemTM (SPWTM), a commercial-off-the-shelf signal processing simulator. SPW provides a block diagram approach to constructing signal processing simulations. Neural network paradigms implemented in the SPANNS include Backpropagation, Kohonen Feature Map, Outstar, Fully Recurrent, Adaptive Resonance Theory 1, 2, & 3, and Brain State in a Box. The SPANNS was developed by integrating SAIC's Industrial Strength Neural Networks (ISNN) Software into SPW.

  7. International Conference on Artificial Neural Networks (ICANN)

    CERN Document Server

    Mladenov, Valeri; Kasabov, Nikola; Artificial Neural Networks : Methods and Applications in Bio-/Neuroinformatics

    2015-01-01

    The book reports on the latest theories on artificial neural networks, with a special emphasis on bio-neuroinformatics methods. It includes twenty-three papers selected from among the best contributions on bio-neuroinformatics-related issues, which were presented at the International Conference on Artificial Neural Networks, held in Sofia, Bulgaria, on September 10-13, 2013 (ICANN 2013). The book covers a broad range of topics concerning the theory and applications of artificial neural networks, including recurrent neural networks, super-Turing computation and reservoir computing, double-layer vector perceptrons, nonnegative matrix factorization, bio-inspired models of cell communities, Gestalt laws, embodied theory of language understanding, saccadic gaze shifts and memory formation, and new training algorithms for Deep Boltzmann Machines, as well as dynamic neural networks and kernel machines. It also reports on new approaches to reinforcement learning, optimal control of discrete time-delay systems, new al...

  8. Analysis of surface ozone using a recurrent neural network.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Biancofiore, Fabio; Verdecchia, Marco; Di Carlo, Piero; Tomassetti, Barbara; Aruffo, Eleonora; Busilacchio, Marcella; Bianco, Sebastiano; Di Tommaso, Sinibaldo; Colangeli, Carlo

    2015-05-01

    Hourly concentrations of ozone (O₃) and nitrogen dioxide (NO₂) have been measured for 16 years, from 1998 to 2013, in a seaside town in central Italy. The seasonal trends of O₃ and NO₂ recorded in this period have been studied. Furthermore, we used the data collected during one year (2005), to define the characteristics of a multiple linear regression model and a neural network model. Both models are used to model the hourly O₃ concentration, using, two scenarios: 1) in the first as inputs, only meteorological parameters and 2) in the second adding photochemical parameters at those of the first scenario. In order to evaluate the performance of the model four statistical criteria are used: correlation coefficient, fractional bias, normalized mean squared error and a factor of two. All the criteria show that the neural network gives better results, compared to the regression model, in all the model scenarios. Predictions of O₃ have been carried out by many authors using a feed forward neural architecture. In this paper we show that a recurrent architecture significantly improves the performances of neural predictors. Using only the meteorological parameters as input, the recurrent architecture shows performance better than the multiple linear regression model that uses meteorological and photochemical data as input, making the neural network model with recurrent architecture a more useful tool in areas where only weather measurements are available. Finally, we used the neural network model to forecast the O₃ hourly concentrations 1, 3, 6, 12, 24 and 48 h ahead. The performances of the model in predicting O₃ levels are discussed. Emphasis is given to the possibility of using the neural network model in operational ways in areas where only meteorological data are available, in order to predict O₃ also in sites where it has not been measured yet. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  9. Neural Based Orthogonal Data Fitting The EXIN Neural Networks

    CERN Document Server

    Cirrincione, Giansalvo

    2008-01-01

    Written by three leaders in the field of neural based algorithms, Neural Based Orthogonal Data Fitting proposes several neural networks, all endowed with a complete theory which not only explains their behavior, but also compares them with the existing neural and traditional algorithms. The algorithms are studied from different points of view, including: as a differential geometry problem, as a dynamic problem, as a stochastic problem, and as a numerical problem. All algorithms have also been analyzed on real time problems (large dimensional data matrices) and have shown accurate solutions. Wh

  10. Enhancing neural-network performance via assortativity

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Franciscis, Sebastiano de; Johnson, Samuel; Torres, Joaquin J.

    2011-01-01

    The performance of attractor neural networks has been shown to depend crucially on the heterogeneity of the underlying topology. We take this analysis a step further by examining the effect of degree-degree correlations - assortativity - on neural-network behavior. We make use of a method recently put forward for studying correlated networks and dynamics thereon, both analytically and computationally, which is independent of how the topology may have evolved. We show how the robustness to noise is greatly enhanced in assortative (positively correlated) neural networks, especially if it is the hub neurons that store the information.

  11. Mass reconstruction with a neural network

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Loennblad, L.; Peterson, C.; Roegnvaldsson, T.

    1992-01-01

    A feed-forward neural network method is developed for reconstructing the invariant mass of hadronic jets appearing in a calorimeter. The approach is illustrated in W→qanti q, where W-bosons are produced in panti p reactions at SPS collider energies. The neural network method yields results that are superior to conventional methods. This neural network application differs from the classification ones in the sense that an analog number (the mass) is computed by the network, rather than a binary decision being made. As a by-product our application clearly demonstrates the need for using 'intelligent' variables in instances when the amount of training instances is limited. (orig.)

  12. Neural network recognition of mammographic lesions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Oldham, W.J.B.; Downes, P.T.; Hunter, V.

    1987-01-01

    A method for recognition of mammographic lesions through the use of neural networks is presented. Neural networks have exhibited the ability to learn the shape andinternal structure of patterns. Digitized mammograms containing circumscribed and stelate lesions were used to train a feedfoward synchronous neural network that self-organizes to stable attractor states. Encoding of data for submission to the network was accomplished by performing a fractal analysis of the digitized image. This results in scale invariant representation of the lesions. Results are discussed

  13. A neural network approach to burst detection.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mounce, S R; Day, A J; Wood, A S; Khan, A; Widdop, P D; Machell, J

    2002-01-01

    This paper describes how hydraulic and water quality data from a distribution network may be used to provide a more efficient leakage management capability for the water industry. The research presented concerns the application of artificial neural networks to the issue of detection and location of leakage in treated water distribution systems. An architecture for an Artificial Neural Network (ANN) based system is outlined. The neural network uses time series data produced by sensors to directly construct an empirical model for predication and classification of leaks. Results are presented using data from an experimental site in Yorkshire Water's Keighley distribution system.

  14. Collision avoidance using neural networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sugathan, Shilpa; Sowmya Shree, B. V.; Warrier, Mithila R.; Vidhyapathi, C. M.

    2017-11-01

    Now a days, accidents on roads are caused due to the negligence of drivers and pedestrians or due to unexpected obstacles that come into the vehicle’s path. In this paper, a model (robot) is developed to assist drivers for a smooth travel without accidents. It reacts to the real time obstacles on the four critical sides of the vehicle and takes necessary action. The sensor used for detecting the obstacle was an IR proximity sensor. A single layer perceptron neural network is used to train and test all possible combinations of sensors result by using Matlab (offline). A microcontroller (ARM Cortex-M3 LPC1768) is used to control the vehicle through the output data which is received from Matlab via serial communication. Hence, the vehicle becomes capable of reacting to any combination of real time obstacles.

  15. Neural networks: a biased overview

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Domany, E.

    1988-01-01

    An overview of recent activity in the field of neural networks is presented. The long-range aim of this research is to understand how the brain works. First some of the problems are stated and terminology defined; then an attempt is made to explain why physicists are drawn to the field, and their main potential contribution. In particular, in recent years some interesting models have been introduced by physicists. A small subset of these models is described, with particular emphasis on those that are analytically soluble. Finally a brief review of the history and recent developments of single- and multilayer perceptrons is given, bringing the situation up to date regarding the central immediate problem of the field: search for a learning algorithm that has an associated convergence theorem

  16. Modeling of methane emissions using artificial neural network approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stamenković Lidija J.

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this study was to develop a model for forecasting CH4 emissions at the national level, using Artificial Neural Networks (ANN with broadly available sustainability, economical and industrial indicators as their inputs. ANN modeling was performed using two different types of architecture; a Backpropagation Neural Network (BPNN and a General Regression Neural Network (GRNN. A conventional multiple linear regression (MLR model was also developed in order to compare model performance and assess which model provides the best results. ANN and MLR models were developed and tested using the same annual data for 20 European countries. The ANN model demonstrated very good performance, significantly better than the MLR model. It was shown that a forecast of CH4 emissions at the national level using the ANN model can be made successfully and accurately for a future period of up to two years, thereby opening the possibility to apply such a modeling technique which can be used to support the implementation of sustainable development strategies and environmental management policies. [Projekat Ministarstva nauke Republike Srbije, br. 172007

  17. IMPLEMENTASI BACKPROPAGATION NEURAL NETWORK DALAM PRAKIRAAN CUACA DI DAERAH BALI SELATAN

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    I MADE DWI UDAYANA PUTRA

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available Weather information has an important role in human life in various fields, such as agriculture, marine, and aviation. The accurate weather forecasts are needed in order to improve the performance of various fields. In this study, use artificial neural network method with backpropagation learning algorithm to create a model of weather forecasting in the area of ??South Bali. The aim of this study is to determine the effect of the number of neurons in the hidden layer and to determine the level of accuracy of the method of artificial neural network with backpropagation learning algorithm in weather forecast models. Weather forecast models in this study use input of the factors that influence the weather, namely air temperature, dew point, wind speed, visibility, and barometric pressure.The results of testing the network with a different number of neurons in the hidden layer of artificial neural network method with backpropagation learning algorithms show that the increase in the number of neurons in the hidden layer is not directly proportional to the value of the accuracy of the weather forecasts, the increase in the number of neurons in the hidden layer does not necessarily increase or decrease value accuracy of weather forecasts we obtain the best accuracy rate of 51.6129% on a network model with three neurons in the hidden layer.

  18. Local Dynamics in Trained Recurrent Neural Networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rivkind, Alexander; Barak, Omri

    2017-06-23

    Learning a task induces connectivity changes in neural circuits, thereby changing their dynamics. To elucidate task-related neural dynamics, we study trained recurrent neural networks. We develop a mean field theory for reservoir computing networks trained to have multiple fixed point attractors. Our main result is that the dynamics of the network's output in the vicinity of attractors is governed by a low-order linear ordinary differential equation. The stability of the resulting equation can be assessed, predicting training success or failure. As a consequence, networks of rectified linear units and of sigmoidal nonlinearities are shown to have diametrically different properties when it comes to learning attractors. Furthermore, a characteristic time constant, which remains finite at the edge of chaos, offers an explanation of the network's output robustness in the presence of variability of the internal neural dynamics. Finally, the proposed theory predicts state-dependent frequency selectivity in the network response.

  19. Local Dynamics in Trained Recurrent Neural Networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rivkind, Alexander; Barak, Omri

    2017-06-01

    Learning a task induces connectivity changes in neural circuits, thereby changing their dynamics. To elucidate task-related neural dynamics, we study trained recurrent neural networks. We develop a mean field theory for reservoir computing networks trained to have multiple fixed point attractors. Our main result is that the dynamics of the network's output in the vicinity of attractors is governed by a low-order linear ordinary differential equation. The stability of the resulting equation can be assessed, predicting training success or failure. As a consequence, networks of rectified linear units and of sigmoidal nonlinearities are shown to have diametrically different properties when it comes to learning attractors. Furthermore, a characteristic time constant, which remains finite at the edge of chaos, offers an explanation of the network's output robustness in the presence of variability of the internal neural dynamics. Finally, the proposed theory predicts state-dependent frequency selectivity in the network response.

  20. Transport energy demand modeling of South Korea using artificial neural network

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Geem, Zong Woo

    2011-01-01

    Artificial neural network models were developed to forecast South Korea's transport energy demand. Various independent variables, such as GDP, population, oil price, number of vehicle registrations, and passenger transport amount, were considered and several good models (Model 1 with GDP, population, and passenger transport amount; Model 2 with GDP, number of vehicle registrations, and passenger transport amount; and Model 3 with oil price, number of vehicle registrations, and passenger transport amount) were selected by comparing with multiple linear regression models. Although certain regression models obtained better R-squared values than neural network models, this does not guarantee the fact that the former is better than the latter because root mean squared errors of the former were much inferior to those of the latter. Also, certain regression model had structural weakness based on P-value. Instead, neural network models produced more robust results. Forecasted results using the neural network models show that South Korea will consume around 37 MTOE of transport energy in 2025. - Highlights: → Transport energy demand of South Korea was forecasted using artificial neural network. → Various variables (GDP, population, oil price, number of registrations, etc.) were considered. → Results of artificial neural network were compared with those of multiple linear regression.

  1. Nonlinear programming with feedforward neural networks.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Reifman, J.

    1999-06-02

    We provide a practical and effective method for solving constrained optimization problems by successively training a multilayer feedforward neural network in a coupled neural-network/objective-function representation. Nonlinear programming problems are easily mapped into this representation which has a simpler and more transparent method of solution than optimization performed with Hopfield-like networks and poses very mild requirements on the functions appearing in the problem. Simulation results are illustrated and compared with an off-the-shelf optimization tool.

  2. Neural networks and orbit control in accelerators

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bozoki, E.; Friedman, A.

    1994-01-01

    An overview of the architecture, workings and training of Neural Networks is given. We stress the aspects which are important for the use of Neural Networks for orbit control in accelerators and storage rings, especially its ability to cope with the nonlinear behavior of the orbit response to 'kicks' and the slow drift in the orbit response during long-term operation. Results obtained for the two NSLS storage rings with several network architectures and various training methods for each architecture are given

  3. Predicting physical time series using dynamic ridge polynomial neural networks.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dhiya Al-Jumeily

    Full Text Available Forecasting naturally occurring phenomena is a common problem in many domains of science, and this has been addressed and investigated by many scientists. The importance of time series prediction stems from the fact that it has wide range of applications, including control systems, engineering processes, environmental systems and economics. From the knowledge of some aspects of the previous behaviour of the system, the aim of the prediction process is to determine or predict its future behaviour. In this paper, we consider a novel application of a higher order polynomial neural network architecture called Dynamic Ridge Polynomial Neural Network that combines the properties of higher order and recurrent neural networks for the prediction of physical time series. In this study, four types of signals have been used, which are; The Lorenz attractor, mean value of the AE index, sunspot number, and heat wave temperature. The simulation results showed good improvements in terms of the signal to noise ratio in comparison to a number of higher order and feedforward neural networks in comparison to the benchmarked techniques.

  4. Modular representation of layered neural networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Watanabe, Chihiro; Hiramatsu, Kaoru; Kashino, Kunio

    2018-01-01

    Layered neural networks have greatly improved the performance of various applications including image processing, speech recognition, natural language processing, and bioinformatics. However, it is still difficult to discover or interpret knowledge from the inference provided by a layered neural network, since its internal representation has many nonlinear and complex parameters embedded in hierarchical layers. Therefore, it becomes important to establish a new methodology by which layered neural networks can be understood. In this paper, we propose a new method for extracting a global and simplified structure from a layered neural network. Based on network analysis, the proposed method detects communities or clusters of units with similar connection patterns. We show its effectiveness by applying it to three use cases. (1) Network decomposition: it can decompose a trained neural network into multiple small independent networks thus dividing the problem and reducing the computation time. (2) Training assessment: the appropriateness of a trained result with a given hyperparameter or randomly chosen initial parameters can be evaluated by using a modularity index. And (3) data analysis: in practical data it reveals the community structure in the input, hidden, and output layers, which serves as a clue for discovering knowledge from a trained neural network. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  5. An Application to the Prediction of LOD Change Based on General Regression Neural Network

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, X. H.; Wang, Q. J.; Zhu, J. J.; Zhang, H.

    2011-07-01

    Traditional prediction of the LOD (length of day) change was based on linear models, such as the least square model and the autoregressive technique, etc. Due to the complex non-linear features of the LOD variation, the performances of the linear model predictors are not fully satisfactory. This paper applies a non-linear neural network - general regression neural network (GRNN) model to forecast the LOD change, and the results are analyzed and compared with those obtained with the back propagation neural network and other models. The comparison shows that the performance of the GRNN model in the prediction of the LOD change is efficient and feasible.

  6. Method of Creation of “Core-Gisseismic Attributes” Dependences With Use of Trainable Neural Networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gafurov Denis

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The study describes methodological techniques and results of geophysical well logging and seismic data interpretation by means of trainable neural networks. Objects of research are wells and seismic materials of Talakan field. The article also presents forecast of construction and reservoir properties of Osa horizon. The paper gives an example of creation of geological (lithological -facial model of the field based on developed methodical techniques of complex interpretation of geologicgeophysical data by trainable neural network. The constructed lithological -facial model allows specifying a geological structure of the field. The developed methodical techniques and the trained neural networks may be applied to adjacent sites for research of carbonate horizons.

  7. Application of neural network to CT

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ma, Xiao-Feng; Takeda, Tatsuoki

    1999-01-01

    This paper presents a new method for two-dimensional image reconstruction by using a multilayer neural network. Multilayer neural networks are extensively investigated and practically applied to solution of various problems such as inverse problems or time series prediction problems. From learning an input-output mapping from a set of examples, neural networks can be regarded as synthesizing an approximation of multidimensional function (that is, solving the problem of hypersurface reconstruction, including smoothing and interpolation). From this viewpoint, neural networks are well suited to the solution of CT image reconstruction. Though a conventionally used object function of a neural network is composed of a sum of squared errors of the output data, we can define an object function composed of a sum of residue of an integral equation. By employing an appropriate line integral for this integral equation, we can construct a neural network that can be used for CT. We applied this method to some model problems and obtained satisfactory results. As it is not necessary to discretized the integral equation using this reconstruction method, therefore it is application to the problem of complicated geometrical shapes is also feasible. Moreover, in neural networks, interpolation is performed quite smoothly, as a result, inverse mapping can be achieved smoothly even in case of including experimental and numerical errors, However, use of conventional back propagation technique for optimization leads to an expensive computation cost. To overcome this drawback, 2nd order optimization methods or parallel computing will be applied in future. (J.P.N.)

  8. Neural network regulation driven by autonomous neural firings

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cho, Myoung Won

    2016-07-01

    Biological neurons naturally fire spontaneously due to the existence of a noisy current. Such autonomous firings may provide a driving force for network formation because synaptic connections can be modified due to neural firings. Here, we study the effect of autonomous firings on network formation. For the temporally asymmetric Hebbian learning, bidirectional connections lose their balance easily and become unidirectional ones. Defining the difference between reciprocal connections as new variables, we could express the learning dynamics as if Ising model spins interact with each other in magnetism. We present a theoretical method to estimate the interaction between the new variables in a neural system. We apply the method to some network systems and find some tendencies of autonomous neural network regulation.

  9. Machine Learning Topological Invariants with Neural Networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Pengfei; Shen, Huitao; Zhai, Hui

    2018-02-01

    In this Letter we supervisedly train neural networks to distinguish different topological phases in the context of topological band insulators. After training with Hamiltonians of one-dimensional insulators with chiral symmetry, the neural network can predict their topological winding numbers with nearly 100% accuracy, even for Hamiltonians with larger winding numbers that are not included in the training data. These results show a remarkable success that the neural network can capture the global and nonlinear topological features of quantum phases from local inputs. By opening up the neural network, we confirm that the network does learn the discrete version of the winding number formula. We also make a couple of remarks regarding the role of the symmetry and the opposite effect of regularization techniques when applying machine learning to physical systems.

  10. An Ensemble of Neural Networks for Stock Trading Decision Making

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chang, Pei-Chann; Liu, Chen-Hao; Fan, Chin-Yuan; Lin, Jun-Lin; Lai, Chih-Ming

    Stock turning signals detection are very interesting subject arising in numerous financial and economic planning problems. In this paper, Ensemble Neural Network system with Intelligent Piecewise Linear Representation for stock turning points detection is presented. The Intelligent piecewise linear representation method is able to generate numerous stocks turning signals from the historic data base, then Ensemble Neural Network system will be applied to train the pattern and retrieve similar stock price patterns from historic data for training. These turning signals represent short-term and long-term trading signals for selling or buying stocks from the market which are applied to forecast the future turning points from the set of test data. Experimental results demonstrate that the hybrid system can make a significant and constant amount of profit when compared with other approaches using stock data available in the market.

  11. Stock market index prediction using neural networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Komo, Darmadi; Chang, Chein-I.; Ko, Hanseok

    1994-03-01

    A neural network approach to stock market index prediction is presented. Actual data of the Wall Street Journal's Dow Jones Industrial Index has been used for a benchmark in our experiments where Radial Basis Function based neural networks have been designed to model these indices over the period from January 1988 to Dec 1992. A notable success has been achieved with the proposed model producing over 90% prediction accuracies observed based on monthly Dow Jones Industrial Index predictions. The model has also captured both moderate and heavy index fluctuations. The experiments conducted in this study demonstrated that the Radial Basis Function neural network represents an excellent candidate to predict stock market index.

  12. Estimation of Conditional Quantile using Neural Networks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kulczycki, P.; Schiøler, Henrik

    1999-01-01

    The problem of estimating conditional quantiles using neural networks is investigated here. A basic structure is developed using the methodology of kernel estimation, and a theory guaranteeing con-sistency on a mild set of assumptions is provided. The constructed structure constitutes a basis...... for the design of a variety of different neural networks, some of which are considered in detail. The task of estimating conditional quantiles is related to Bayes point estimation whereby a broad range of applications within engineering, economics and management can be suggested. Numerical results illustrating...... the capabilities of the elaborated neural network are also given....

  13. Convolutional Neural Network for Image Recognition

    CERN Document Server

    Seifnashri, Sahand

    2015-01-01

    The aim of this project is to use machine learning techniques especially Convolutional Neural Networks for image processing. These techniques can be used for Quark-Gluon discrimination using calorimeters data, but unfortunately I didn’t manage to get the calorimeters data and I just used the Jet data fromminiaodsim(ak4 chs). The Jet data was not good enough for Convolutional Neural Network which is designed for ’image’ recognition. This report is made of twomain part, part one is mainly about implementing Convolutional Neural Network on unphysical data such as MNIST digits and CIFAR-10 dataset and part 2 is about the Jet data.

  14. Applications of neural network to numerical analyses

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Takeda, Tatsuoki; Fukuhara, Makoto; Ma, Xiao-Feng; Liaqat, Ali

    1999-01-01

    Applications of a multi-layer neural network to numerical analyses are described. We are mainly concerned with the computed tomography and the solution of differential equations. In both cases as the objective functions for the training process of the neural network we employed residuals of the integral equation or the differential equations. This is different from the conventional neural network training where sum of the squared errors of the output values is adopted as the objective function. For model problems both the methods gave satisfactory results and the methods are considered promising for some kind of problems. (author)

  15. Nonequilibrium landscape theory of neural networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yan, Han; Zhao, Lei; Hu, Liang; Wang, Xidi; Wang, Erkang; Wang, Jin

    2013-11-05

    The brain map project aims to map out the neuron connections of the human brain. Even with all of the wirings mapped out, the global and physical understandings of the function and behavior are still challenging. Hopfield quantified the learning and memory process of symmetrically connected neural networks globally through equilibrium energy. The energy basins of attractions represent memories, and the memory retrieval dynamics is determined by the energy gradient. However, the realistic neural networks are asymmetrically connected, and oscillations cannot emerge from symmetric neural networks. Here, we developed a nonequilibrium landscape-flux theory for realistic asymmetrically connected neural networks. We uncovered the underlying potential landscape and the associated Lyapunov function for quantifying the global stability and function. We found the dynamics and oscillations in human brains responsible for cognitive processes and physiological rhythm regulations are determined not only by the landscape gradient but also by the flux. We found that the flux is closely related to the degrees of the asymmetric connections in neural networks and is the origin of the neural oscillations. The neural oscillation landscape shows a closed-ring attractor topology. The landscape gradient attracts the network down to the ring. The flux is responsible for coherent oscillations on the ring. We suggest the flux may provide the driving force for associations among memories. We applied our theory to rapid-eye movement sleep cycle. We identified the key regulation factors for function through global sensitivity analysis of landscape topography against wirings, which are in good agreements with experiments.

  16. Nonequilibrium landscape theory of neural networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yan, Han; Zhao, Lei; Hu, Liang; Wang, Xidi; Wang, Erkang; Wang, Jin

    2013-01-01

    The brain map project aims to map out the neuron connections of the human brain. Even with all of the wirings mapped out, the global and physical understandings of the function and behavior are still challenging. Hopfield quantified the learning and memory process of symmetrically connected neural networks globally through equilibrium energy. The energy basins of attractions represent memories, and the memory retrieval dynamics is determined by the energy gradient. However, the realistic neural networks are asymmetrically connected, and oscillations cannot emerge from symmetric neural networks. Here, we developed a nonequilibrium landscape–flux theory for realistic asymmetrically connected neural networks. We uncovered the underlying potential landscape and the associated Lyapunov function for quantifying the global stability and function. We found the dynamics and oscillations in human brains responsible for cognitive processes and physiological rhythm regulations are determined not only by the landscape gradient but also by the flux. We found that the flux is closely related to the degrees of the asymmetric connections in neural networks and is the origin of the neural oscillations. The neural oscillation landscape shows a closed-ring attractor topology. The landscape gradient attracts the network down to the ring. The flux is responsible for coherent oscillations on the ring. We suggest the flux may provide the driving force for associations among memories. We applied our theory to rapid-eye movement sleep cycle. We identified the key regulation factors for function through global sensitivity analysis of landscape topography against wirings, which are in good agreements with experiments. PMID:24145451

  17. Diagnosis method utilizing neural networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Watanabe, K.; Tamayama, K.

    1990-01-01

    Studies have been made on the technique of neural networks, which will be used to identify a cause of a small anomalous state in the reactor coolant system of the ATR (Advance Thermal Reactor). Three phases of analyses were carried out in this study. First, simulation for 100 seconds was made to determine how the plant parameters respond after the occurence of a transient decrease in reactivity, flow rate and temperature of feed water and increase in the steam flow rate and steam pressure, which would produce a decrease of water level in a steam drum of the ATR. Next, the simulation data was analysed utilizing an autoregressive model. From this analysis, a total of 36 coherency functions up to 0.5 Hz in each transient were computed among nine important and detectable plant parameters: neutron flux, flow rate of coolant, steam or feed water, water level in the steam drum, pressure and opening area of control valve in a steam pipe, feed water temperature and electrical power. Last, learning of neural networks composed of 96 input, 4-9 hidden and 5 output layer units was done by use of the generalized delta rule, namely a back-propagation algorithm. These convergent computations were continued as far as the difference between the desired outputs, 1 for direct cause or 0 for four other ones and actual outputs reached less than 10%. (1) Coherency functions were not governed by decreasing rate of reactivity in the range of 0.41x10 -2 dollar/s to 1.62x10 -2 dollar /s or by decreasing depth of the feed water temperature in the range of 3 deg C to 10 deg C or by a change of 10% or less in the three other causes. Change in coherency functions only depended on the type of cause. (2) The direct cause from the other four ones could be discriminated with 0.94+-0.01 of output level. A maximum of 0.06 output height was found among the other four causes. (3) Calculation load which is represented as products of learning times and numbers of the hidden units did not depend on the

  18. Parameter extraction with neural networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cazzanti, Luca; Khan, Mumit; Cerrina, Franco

    1998-06-01

    In semiconductor processing, the modeling of the process is becoming more and more important. While the ultimate goal is that of developing a set of tools for designing a complete process (Technology CAD), it is also necessary to have modules to simulate the various technologies and, in particular, to optimize specific steps. This need is particularly acute in lithography, where the continuous decrease in CD forces the technologies to operate near their limits. In the development of a 'model' for a physical process, we face several levels of challenges. First, it is necessary to develop a 'physical model,' i.e. a rational description of the process itself on the basis of know physical laws. Second, we need an 'algorithmic model' to represent in a virtual environment the behavior of the 'physical model.' After a 'complete' model has been developed and verified, it becomes possible to do performance analysis. In many cases the input parameters are poorly known or not accessible directly to experiment. It would be extremely useful to obtain the values of these 'hidden' parameters from experimental results by comparing model to data. This is particularly severe, because the complexity and costs associated with semiconductor processing make a simple 'trial-and-error' approach infeasible and cost- inefficient. Even when computer models of the process already exists, obtaining data through simulations may be time consuming. Neural networks (NN) are powerful computational tools to predict the behavior of a system from an existing data set. They are able to adaptively 'learn' input/output mappings and to act as universal function approximators. In this paper we use artificial neural networks to build a mapping from the input parameters of the process to output parameters which are indicative of the performance of the process. Once the NN has been 'trained,' it is also possible to observe the process 'in reverse,' and to extract the values of the inputs which yield outputs

  19. The quest for a Quantum Neural Network

    OpenAIRE

    Schuld, M.; Sinayskiy, I.; Petruccione, F.

    2014-01-01

    With the overwhelming success in the field of quantum information in the last decades, the "quest" for a Quantum Neural Network (QNN) model began in order to combine quantum computing with the striking properties of neural computing. This article presents a systematic approach to QNN research, which so far consists of a conglomeration of ideas and proposals. It outlines the challenge of combining the nonlinear, dissipative dynamics of neural computing and the linear, unitary dynamics of quant...

  20. Deep Learning Neural Networks and Bayesian Neural Networks in Data Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chernoded Andrey

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Most of the modern analyses in high energy physics use signal-versus-background classification techniques of machine learning methods and neural networks in particular. Deep learning neural network is the most promising modern technique to separate signal and background and now days can be widely and successfully implemented as a part of physical analysis. In this article we compare Deep learning and Bayesian neural networks application as a classifiers in an instance of top quark analysis.

  1. Improved transformer protection using probabilistic neural network ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    user

    secure and dependable protection for power transformers. Owing to its superior learning and generalization capabilities Artificial. Neural Network (ANN) can considerably enhance the scope of WI method. ANN approach is faster, robust and easier to implement than the conventional waveform approach. The use of neural ...

  2. An Introduction to Neural Networks for Hearing Aid Noise Recognition.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Jun W.; Tyler, Richard S.

    1995-01-01

    This article introduces the use of multilayered artificial neural networks in hearing aid noise recognition. It reviews basic principles of neural networks, and offers an example of an application in which a neural network is used to identify the presence or absence of noise in speech. The ability of neural networks to "learn" the…

  3. Neural Networks in Mobile Robot Motion

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Danica Janglová

    2004-03-01

    Full Text Available This paper deals with a path planning and intelligent control of an autonomous robot which should move safely in partially structured environment. This environment may involve any number of obstacles of arbitrary shape and size; some of them are allowed to move. We describe our approach to solving the motion-planning problem in mobile robot control using neural networks-based technique. Our method of the construction of a collision-free path for moving robot among obstacles is based on two neural networks. The first neural network is used to determine the “free” space using ultrasound range finder data. The second neural network “finds” a safe direction for the next robot section of the path in the workspace while avoiding the nearest obstacles. Simulation examples of generated path with proposed techniques will be presented.

  4. water demand prediction using artificial neural network

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    user

    2017-01-01

    Jan 1, 2017 ... Interface for activation and deactivation of valves. •. Interface demand ... process could be done and monitored at the computer terminal as expected of a .... [15] Arbib, M. A.The Handbook of Brain Theory and Neural. Networks.

  5. Hopfield neural network in HEP track reconstruction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Muresan, R.; Pentia, M.

    1997-01-01

    In experimental particle physics, pattern recognition problems, specifically for neural network methods, occur frequently in track finding or feature extraction. Track finding is a combinatorial optimization problem. Given a set of points in Euclidean space, one tries the reconstruction of particle trajectories, subject to smoothness constraints.The basic ingredients in a neural network are the N binary neurons and the synaptic strengths connecting them. In our case the neurons are the segments connecting all possible point pairs.The dynamics of the neural network is given by a local updating rule wich evaluates for each neuron the sign of the 'upstream activity'. An updating rule in the form of sigmoid function is given. The synaptic strengths are defined in terms of angle between the segments and the lengths of the segments implied in the track reconstruction. An algorithm based on Hopfield neural network has been developed and tested on the track coordinates measured by silicon microstrip tracking system

  6. Additive Feed Forward Control with Neural Networks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sørensen, O.

    1999-01-01

    This paper demonstrates a method to control a non-linear, multivariable, noisy process using trained neural networks. The basis for the method is a trained neural network controller acting as the inverse process model. A training method for obtaining such an inverse process model is applied....... A suitable 'shaped' (low-pass filtered) reference is used to overcome problems with excessive control action when using a controller acting as the inverse process model. The control concept is Additive Feed Forward Control, where the trained neural network controller, acting as the inverse process model......, is placed in a supplementary pure feed-forward path to an existing feedback controller. This concept benefits from the fact, that an existing, traditional designed, feedback controller can be retained without any modifications, and after training the connection of the neural network feed-forward controller...

  7. PREDIKSI FOREX MENGGUNAKAN MODEL NEURAL NETWORK

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. Hadapiningradja Kusumodestoni

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available ABSTRAK Prediksi adalah salah satu teknik yang paling penting dalam menjalankan bisnis forex. Keputusan dalam memprediksi adalah sangatlah penting, karena dengan prediksi dapat membantu mengetahui nilai forex di waktu tertentu kedepan sehingga dapat mengurangi resiko kerugian. Tujuan dari penelitian ini dimaksudkan memprediksi bisnis fores menggunakan model neural network dengan data time series per 1 menit untuk mengetahui nilai akurasi prediksi sehingga dapat mengurangi resiko dalam menjalankan bisnis forex. Metode penelitian pada penelitian ini meliputi metode pengumpulan data kemudian dilanjutkan ke metode training, learning, testing menggunakan neural network. Setelah di evaluasi hasil penelitian ini menunjukan bahwa penerapan algoritma Neural Network mampu untuk memprediksi forex dengan tingkat akurasi prediksi 0.431 +/- 0.096 sehingga dengan prediksi ini dapat membantu mengurangi resiko dalam menjalankan bisnis forex. Kata kunci: prediksi, forex, neural network.

  8. Artificial neural networks for plasma spectroscopy analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Morgan, W.L.; Larsen, J.T.; Goldstein, W.H.

    1992-01-01

    Artificial neural networks have been applied to a variety of signal processing and image recognition problems. Of the several common neural models the feed-forward, back-propagation network is well suited for the analysis of scientific laboratory data, which can be viewed as a pattern recognition problem. The authors present a discussion of the basic neural network concepts and illustrate its potential for analysis of experiments by applying it to the spectra of laser produced plasmas in order to obtain estimates of electron temperatures and densities. Although these are high temperature and density plasmas, the neural network technique may be of interest in the analysis of the low temperature and density plasmas characteristic of experiments and devices in gaseous electronics

  9. Artificial neural networks a practical course

    CERN Document Server

    da Silva, Ivan Nunes; Andrade Flauzino, Rogerio; Liboni, Luisa Helena Bartocci; dos Reis Alves, Silas Franco

    2017-01-01

    This book provides comprehensive coverage of neural networks, their evolution, their structure, the problems they can solve, and their applications. The first half of the book looks at theoretical investigations on artificial neural networks and addresses the key architectures that are capable of implementation in various application scenarios. The second half is designed specifically for the production of solutions using artificial neural networks to solve practical problems arising from different areas of knowledge. It also describes the various implementation details that were taken into account to achieve the reported results. These aspects contribute to the maturation and improvement of experimental techniques to specify the neural network architecture that is most appropriate for a particular application scope. The book is appropriate for students in graduate and upper undergraduate courses in addition to researchers and professionals.

  10. Control of autonomous robot using neural networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barton, Adam; Volna, Eva

    2017-07-01

    The aim of the article is to design a method of control of an autonomous robot using artificial neural networks. The introductory part describes control issues from the perspective of autonomous robot navigation and the current mobile robots controlled by neural networks. The core of the article is the design of the controlling neural network, and generation and filtration of the training set using ART1 (Adaptive Resonance Theory). The outcome of the practical part is an assembled Lego Mindstorms EV3 robot solving the problem of avoiding obstacles in space. To verify models of an autonomous robot behavior, a set of experiments was created as well as evaluation criteria. The speed of each motor was adjusted by the controlling neural network with respect to the situation in which the robot was found.

  11. A heuristic forecasting model for stock decision

    OpenAIRE

    Zhang, D.; Jiang, Q.; Li, X.

    2005-01-01

    This paper describes a heuristic forecasting model based on neural networks for stock decision-making. Some heuristic strategies are presented for enhancing the learning capability of neural networks and obtaining better trading performance. The China Shanghai Composite Index is used as case study. The forecasting model can forecast the buying and selling signs according to the result of neural network prediction. Results are compared with a benchmark buy-and-hold strategy. ...

  12. Neural network wavelet technology: A frontier of automation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Szu, Harold

    1994-01-01

    Neural networks are an outgrowth of interdisciplinary studies concerning the brain. These studies are guiding the field of Artificial Intelligence towards the, so-called, 6th Generation Computer. Enormous amounts of resources have been poured into R/D. Wavelet Transforms (WT) have replaced Fourier Transforms (FT) in Wideband Transient (WT) cases since the discovery of WT in 1985. The list of successful applications includes the following: earthquake prediction; radar identification; speech recognition; stock market forecasting; FBI finger print image compression; and telecommunication ISDN-data compression.

  13. Application of neural networks for the prediction of multidirectional magnetostriction

    CERN Document Server

    Baumgartinger, N; Pfützner, H; Krismanic, G

    2000-01-01

    This paper describes attempts to use artificial neural networks (ANNs) for the prediction of magnetostriction (MS) characteristics of transformer core materials. In this first approach, the ANNs were trained with data from a rotational single-sheet tester to predict MS in rolling direction (r.d.) as a function of material grade, amplitude and shape of multidirectional magnetisation as well as the level of additional mechanical stress. It is shown that ANNs are able to forecast the corresponding relative MS changes in an approximate way.

  14. Estimation of Solar Radiation using Artificial Neural Network

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Slamet Suprayogi

    2004-01-01

    Full Text Available The solar radiation is the most important fator affeccting evapotranspiration, the mechanism of transporting the vapor from the water surface has also a great effect. The main objectives of this study were to investigate the potential of using Artificial Neural Network (ANN to predict solar radiation related to temperature. The three-layer backpropagation were developed, trained, and tested to forecast solar radiation for Ciriung sub Cachment. Result revealed that the ANN were able to well learn the events they were trained to recognize. Moreover, they were capable of effecctively generalize their training by predicting solar radiation for sets unseen cases.

  15. Neural networks, D0, and the SSC

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Barter, C.; Cutts, D.; Hoftun, J.S.; Partridge, R.A.; Sornborger, A.T.; Johnson, C.T.; Zeller, R.T.

    1989-01-01

    We outline several exploratory studies involving neural network simulations applied to pattern recognition in high energy physics. We describe the D0 data acquisition system and a natual means by which algorithms derived from neural networks techniques may be incorporated into recently developed hardware associated with the D0 MicroVAX farm nodes. Such applications to the event filtering needed by SSC detectors look interesting. 10 refs., 11 figs

  16. Neural network monitoring of resistive welding

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Quero, J.M.; Millan, R.L.; Franquelo, L.G.; Canas, J.

    1994-01-01

    Supervision of welding processes is one of the most important and complicated tasks in production lines. Artificial Neural Networks have been applied for modeling and control of ph physical processes. In our paper we propose the use of a neural network classifier for on-line non-destructive testing. This system has been developed and installed in a resistive welding station. Results confirm the validity of this novel approach. (Author) 6 refs

  17. Using neural networks in software repositories

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eichmann, David (Editor); Srinivas, Kankanahalli; Boetticher, G.

    1992-01-01

    The first topic is an exploration of the use of neural network techniques to improve the effectiveness of retrieval in software repositories. The second topic relates to a series of experiments conducted to evaluate the feasibility of using adaptive neural networks as a means of deriving (or more specifically, learning) measures on software. Taken together, these two efforts illuminate a very promising mechanism supporting software infrastructures - one based upon a flexible and responsive technology.

  18. Application of neural networks in CRM systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bojanowska Agnieszka

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The central aim of this study is to investigate how to apply artificial neural networks in Customer Relationship Management (CRM. The paper presents several business applications of neural networks in software systems designed to aid CRM, e.g. in deciding on the profitability of building a relationship with a given customer. Furthermore, a framework for a neural-network based CRM software tool is developed. Building beneficial relationships with customers is generating considerable interest among various businesses, and is often mentioned as one of the crucial objectives of enterprises, next to their key aim: to bring satisfactory profit. There is a growing tendency among businesses to invest in CRM systems, which together with an organisational culture of a company aid managing customer relationships. It is the sheer amount of gathered data as well as the need for constant updating and analysis of this breadth of information that may imply the suitability of neural networks for the application in question. Neural networks exhibit considerably higher computational capabilities than sequential calculations because the solution to a problem is obtained without the need for developing a special algorithm. In the majority of presented CRM applications neural networks constitute and are presented as a managerial decision-taking optimisation tool.

  19. Logarithmic learning for generalized classifier neural network.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ozyildirim, Buse Melis; Avci, Mutlu

    2014-12-01

    Generalized classifier neural network is introduced as an efficient classifier among the others. Unless the initial smoothing parameter value is close to the optimal one, generalized classifier neural network suffers from convergence problem and requires quite a long time to converge. In this work, to overcome this problem, a logarithmic learning approach is proposed. The proposed method uses logarithmic cost function instead of squared error. Minimization of this cost function reduces the number of iterations used for reaching the minima. The proposed method is tested on 15 different data sets and performance of logarithmic learning generalized classifier neural network is compared with that of standard one. Thanks to operation range of radial basis function included by generalized classifier neural network, proposed logarithmic approach and its derivative has continuous values. This makes it possible to adopt the advantage of logarithmic fast convergence by the proposed learning method. Due to fast convergence ability of logarithmic cost function, training time is maximally decreased to 99.2%. In addition to decrease in training time, classification performance may also be improved till 60%. According to the test results, while the proposed method provides a solution for time requirement problem of generalized classifier neural network, it may also improve the classification accuracy. The proposed method can be considered as an efficient way for reducing the time requirement problem of generalized classifier neural network. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  20. Diabetic retinopathy screening using deep neural network.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ramachandran, Nishanthan; Hong, Sheng Chiong; Sime, Mary J; Wilson, Graham A

    2017-09-07

    There is a burgeoning interest in the use of deep neural network in diabetic retinal screening. To determine whether a deep neural network could satisfactorily detect diabetic retinopathy that requires referral to an ophthalmologist from a local diabetic retinal screening programme and an international database. Retrospective audit. Diabetic retinal photos from Otago database photographed during October 2016 (485 photos), and 1200 photos from Messidor international database. Receiver operating characteristic curve to illustrate the ability of a deep neural network to identify referable diabetic retinopathy (moderate or worse diabetic retinopathy or exudates within one disc diameter of the fovea). Area under the receiver operating characteristic curve, sensitivity and specificity. For detecting referable diabetic retinopathy, the deep neural network had an area under receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.901 (95% confidence interval 0.807-0.995), with 84.6% sensitivity and 79.7% specificity for Otago and 0.980 (95% confidence interval 0.973-0.986), with 96.0% sensitivity and 90.0% specificity for Messidor. This study has shown that a deep neural network can detect referable diabetic retinopathy with sensitivities and specificities close to or better than 80% from both an international and a domestic (New Zealand) database. We believe that deep neural networks can be integrated into community screening once they can successfully detect both diabetic retinopathy and diabetic macular oedema. © 2017 Royal Australian and New Zealand College of Ophthalmologists.

  1. 基于AdaBoost与BP神经网络增量学习的手机用户分类预测%Mobile Phone Users Classification Forecast Based on AdaBoost and BP Neural Network Incremental Learning

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    张冉

    2011-01-01

    随着3G网络的全面普及,手机广告目前已逐渐成为商家抢占市场的一种营销手段,但手机广告投放的精准性是目前比较突出的一个问题。本文介绍了BP神经网络以及AdaBoost算法的基本原理,研究了应用AdaBoost结合BP神经网络算法的增量学习模型,该模型基于用户历史点击记录来预测手机用户感兴趣的广告类别,以提高手机广告投放的精准度。%With the overall popularity of 3G networks,mobile advertising business has become a marketing tool to seize the market,but the precise nature of mobile advertising is a more prominent issue.This article describes the BP neural network and the basic principles of AdaBoost algorithm to study the application of BP neural network algorithm AdaBoost with incremental learning model that records based on user click history to predict the mobile phone users are interested in advertising categories,in order to improve the mobile advertising the accuracy.

  2. Neural-Network Object-Recognition Program

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spirkovska, L.; Reid, M. B.

    1993-01-01

    HONTIOR computer program implements third-order neural network exhibiting invariance under translation, change of scale, and in-plane rotation. Invariance incorporated directly into architecture of network. Only one view of each object needed to train network for two-dimensional-translation-invariant recognition of object. Also used for three-dimensional-transformation-invariant recognition by training network on only set of out-of-plane rotated views. Written in C language.

  3. Artificial Astrocytes Improve Neural Network Performance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Porto-Pazos, Ana B.; Veiguela, Noha; Mesejo, Pablo; Navarrete, Marta; Alvarellos, Alberto; Ibáñez, Oscar; Pazos, Alejandro; Araque, Alfonso

    2011-01-01

    Compelling evidence indicates the existence of bidirectional communication between astrocytes and neurons. Astrocytes, a type of glial cells classically considered to be passive supportive cells, have been recently demonstrated to be actively involved in the processing and regulation of synaptic information, suggesting that brain function arises from the activity of neuron-glia networks. However, the actual impact of astrocytes in neural network function is largely unknown and its application in artificial intelligence remains untested. We have investigated the consequences of including artificial astrocytes, which present the biologically defined properties involved in astrocyte-neuron communication, on artificial neural network performance. Using connectionist systems and evolutionary algorithms, we have compared the performance of artificial neural networks (NN) and artificial neuron-glia networks (NGN) to solve classification problems. We show that the degree of success of NGN is superior to NN. Analysis of performances of NN with different number of neurons or different architectures indicate that the effects of NGN cannot be accounted for an increased number of network elements, but rather they are specifically due to astrocytes. Furthermore, the relative efficacy of NGN vs. NN increases as the complexity of the network increases. These results indicate that artificial astrocytes improve neural network performance, and established the concept of Artificial Neuron-Glia Networks, which represents a novel concept in Artificial Intelligence with implications in computational science as well as in the understanding of brain function. PMID:21526157

  4. Artificial astrocytes improve neural network performance.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ana B Porto-Pazos

    Full Text Available Compelling evidence indicates the existence of bidirectional communication between astrocytes and neurons. Astrocytes, a type of glial cells classically considered to be passive supportive cells, have been recently demonstrated to be actively involved in the processing and regulation of synaptic information, suggesting that brain function arises from the activity of neuron-glia networks. However, the actual impact of astrocytes in neural network function is largely unknown and its application in artificial intelligence remains untested. We have investigated the consequences of including artificial astrocytes, which present the biologically defined properties involved in astrocyte-neuron communication, on artificial neural network performance. Using connectionist systems and evolutionary algorithms, we have compared the performance of artificial neural networks (NN and artificial neuron-glia networks (NGN to solve classification problems. We show that the degree of success of NGN is superior to NN. Analysis of performances of NN with different number of neurons or different architectures indicate that the effects of NGN cannot be accounted for an increased number of network elements, but rather they are specifically due to astrocytes. Furthermore, the relative efficacy of NGN vs. NN increases as the complexity of the network increases. These results indicate that artificial astrocytes improve neural network performance, and established the concept of Artificial Neuron-Glia Networks, which represents a novel concept in Artificial Intelligence with implications in computational science as well as in the understanding of brain function.

  5. Artificial astrocytes improve neural network performance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Porto-Pazos, Ana B; Veiguela, Noha; Mesejo, Pablo; Navarrete, Marta; Alvarellos, Alberto; Ibáñez, Oscar; Pazos, Alejandro; Araque, Alfonso

    2011-04-19

    Compelling evidence indicates the existence of bidirectional communication between astrocytes and neurons. Astrocytes, a type of glial cells classically considered to be passive supportive cells, have been recently demonstrated to be actively involved in the processing and regulation of synaptic information, suggesting that brain function arises from the activity of neuron-glia networks. However, the actual impact of astrocytes in neural network function is largely unknown and its application in artificial intelligence remains untested. We have investigated the consequences of including artificial astrocytes, which present the biologically defined properties involved in astrocyte-neuron communication, on artificial neural network performance. Using connectionist systems and evolutionary algorithms, we have compared the performance of artificial neural networks (NN) and artificial neuron-glia networks (NGN) to solve classification problems. We show that the degree of success of NGN is superior to NN. Analysis of performances of NN with different number of neurons or different architectures indicate that the effects of NGN cannot be accounted for an increased number of network elements, but rather they are specifically due to astrocytes. Furthermore, the relative efficacy of NGN vs. NN increases as the complexity of the network increases. These results indicate that artificial astrocytes improve neural network performance, and established the concept of Artificial Neuron-Glia Networks, which represents a novel concept in Artificial Intelligence with implications in computational science as well as in the understanding of brain function.

  6. Hardware implementation of stochastic spiking neural networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rosselló, Josep L; Canals, Vincent; Morro, Antoni; Oliver, Antoni

    2012-08-01

    Spiking Neural Networks, the last generation of Artificial Neural Networks, are characterized by its bio-inspired nature and by a higher computational capacity with respect to other neural models. In real biological neurons, stochastic processes represent an important mechanism of neural behavior and are responsible of its special arithmetic capabilities. In this work we present a simple hardware implementation of spiking neurons that considers this probabilistic nature. The advantage of the proposed implementation is that it is fully digital and therefore can be massively implemented in Field Programmable Gate Arrays. The high computational capabilities of the proposed model are demonstrated by the study of both feed-forward and recurrent networks that are able to implement high-speed signal filtering and to solve complex systems of linear equations.

  7. Noise Analysis studies with neural networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Seker, S.; Ciftcioglu, O.

    1996-01-01

    Noise analysis studies with neural network are aimed. Stochastic signals at the input of the network are used to obtain an algorithmic multivariate stochastic signal modeling. To this end, lattice modeling of a stochastic signal is performed to obtain backward residual noise sources which are uncorrelated among themselves. There are applied together with an additional input to the network to obtain an algorithmic model which is used for signal detection for early failure in plant monitoring. The additional input provides the information to the network to minimize the difference between the signal and the network's one-step-ahead prediction. A stochastic algorithm is used for training where the errors reflecting the measurement error during the training are also modelled so that fast and consistent convergence of network's weights is obtained. The lattice structure coupled to neural network investigated with measured signals from an actual power plant. (authors)

  8. Self-organized critical neural networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bornholdt, Stefan; Roehl, Torsten

    2003-01-01

    A mechanism for self-organization of the degree of connectivity in model neural networks is studied. Network connectivity is regulated locally on the basis of an order parameter of the global dynamics, which is estimated from an observable at the single synapse level. This principle is studied in a two-dimensional neural network with randomly wired asymmetric weights. In this class of networks, network connectivity is closely related to a phase transition between ordered and disordered dynamics. A slow topology change is imposed on the network through a local rewiring rule motivated by activity-dependent synaptic development: Neighbor neurons whose activity is correlated, on average develop a new connection while uncorrelated neighbors tend to disconnect. As a result, robust self-organization of the network towards the order disorder transition occurs. Convergence is independent of initial conditions, robust against thermal noise, and does not require fine tuning of parameters

  9. Forecasting water demand using back propagation networks in the operation of reservoirs in the citarum cascade, west java, indonesia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mulya R. Mashudi

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available This study investigates the use of Neural Networks (NN as a potential means of more accurately forecasting water demand in the Citarum River basin cascade. Neural Networks have the ability to recognise nonlinear patterns when sufficiently trained with historical data. The study constructs a NN model of the cascade, based on Back Propagation Networks (BPN. Data representing physical characteristics and meteorological conditions in the Citarum River basin from 1989 through 1995 were used to train the BPN. Nonlinear activation functions (sigmoid, tangent, and gaussian functions and hidden layers in the BPN were chosen for the study.

  10. Application of recurrent neural networks for drought projections in California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Le, J. A.; El-Askary, H. M.; Allali, M.; Struppa, D. C.

    2017-05-01

    We use recurrent neural networks (RNNs) to investigate the complex interactions between the long-term trend in dryness and a projected, short but intense, period of wetness due to the 2015-2016 El Niño. Although it was forecasted that this El Niño season would bring significant rainfall to the region, our long-term projections of the Palmer Z Index (PZI) showed a continuing drought trend, contrasting with the 1998-1999 El Niño event. RNN training considered PZI data during 1896-2006 that was validated against the 2006-2015 period to evaluate the potential of extreme precipitation forecast. We achieved a statistically significant correlation of 0.610 between forecasted and observed PZI on the validation set for a lead time of 1 month. This gives strong confidence to the forecasted precipitation indicator. The 2015-2016 El Niño season proved to be relatively weak as compared with the 1997-1998, with a peak PZI anomaly of 0.242 standard deviations below historical averages, continuing drought conditions.

  11. Prototype-Incorporated Emotional Neural Network.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oyedotun, Oyebade K; Khashman, Adnan

    2017-08-15

    Artificial neural networks (ANNs) aim to simulate the biological neural activities. Interestingly, many ''engineering'' prospects in ANN have relied on motivations from cognition and psychology studies. So far, two important learning theories that have been subject of active research are the prototype and adaptive learning theories. The learning rules employed for ANNs can be related to adaptive learning theory, where several examples of the different classes in a task are supplied to the network for adjusting internal parameters. Conversely, the prototype-learning theory uses prototypes (representative examples); usually, one prototype per class of the different classes contained in the task. These prototypes are supplied for systematic matching with new examples so that class association can be achieved. In this paper, we propose and implement a novel neural network algorithm based on modifying the emotional neural network (EmNN) model to unify the prototype- and adaptive-learning theories. We refer to our new model as ``prototype-incorporated EmNN''. Furthermore, we apply the proposed model to two real-life challenging tasks, namely, static hand-gesture recognition and face recognition, and compare the result to those obtained using the popular back-propagation neural network (BPNN), emotional BPNN (EmNN), deep networks, an exemplar classification model, and k-nearest neighbor.

  12. Deformable image registration using convolutional neural networks

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Eppenhof, Koen A.J.; Lafarge, Maxime W.; Moeskops, Pim; Veta, Mitko; Pluim, Josien P.W.

    2018-01-01

    Deformable image registration can be time-consuming and often needs extensive parameterization to perform well on a specific application. We present a step towards a registration framework based on a three-dimensional convolutional neural network. The network directly learns transformations between

  13. Estimating Conditional Distributions by Neural Networks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kulczycki, P.; Schiøler, Henrik

    1998-01-01

    Neural Networks for estimating conditionaldistributions and their associated quantiles are investigated in this paper. A basic network structure is developed on the basis of kernel estimation theory, and consistency property is considered from a mild set of assumptions. A number of applications...

  14. Artificial Neural Networks and Instructional Technology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carlson, Patricia A.

    1991-01-01

    Artificial neural networks (ANN), part of artificial intelligence, are discussed. Such networks are fed sample cases (training sets), learn how to recognize patterns in the sample data, and use this experience in handling new cases. Two cognitive roles for ANNs (intelligent filters and spreading, associative memories) are examined. Prototypes…

  15. Learning drifting concepts with neural networks

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Biehl, Michael; Schwarze, Holm

    1993-01-01

    The learning of time-dependent concepts with a neural network is studied analytically and numerically. The linearly separable target rule is represented by an N-vector, whose time dependence is modelled by a random or deterministic drift process. A single-layer network is trained online using

  16. Application of clustering analysis in the prediction of photovoltaic power generation based on neural network

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cheng, K.; Guo, L. M.; Wang, Y. K.; Zafar, M. T.

    2017-11-01

    In order to select effective samples in the large number of data of PV power generation years and improve the accuracy of PV power generation forecasting model, this paper studies the application of clustering analysis in this field and establishes forecasting model based on neural network. Based on three different types of weather on sunny, cloudy and rainy days, this research screens samples of historical data by the clustering analysis method. After screening, it establishes BP neural network prediction models using screened data as training data. Then, compare the six types of photovoltaic power generation prediction models before and after the data screening. Results show that the prediction model combining with clustering analysis and BP neural networks is an effective method to improve the precision of photovoltaic power generation.

  17. Neural network tagging in a toy model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Milek, Marko; Patel, Popat

    1999-01-01

    The purpose of this study is a comparison of Artificial Neural Network approach to HEP analysis against the traditional methods. A toy model used in this analysis consists of two types of particles defined by four generic properties. A number of 'events' was created according to the model using standard Monte Carlo techniques. Several fully connected, feed forward multi layered Artificial Neural Networks were trained to tag the model events. The performance of each network was compared to the standard analysis mechanisms and significant improvement was observed

  18. Selected aspects of modelling of foreign exchange rates with neural networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Václav Mastný

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper deals with forecasting of the high-frequency foreign exchange market with neural networks. The objective is to investigate some aspects of modelling with neural networks (impact of topology, size of training set and time horizon of the forecast on the performance of the network. The data used for the purpose of this paper contain 15-minute time series of US dollar against other major currencies, Japanese Yen, British Pound and Euro. The results show, that performance of the network in terms of correct directorial change is negatively influenced by increasing number of hidden neurons and decreasing size of training set. The performance of the network is influenced by sampling frequency.

  19. A quantum-implementable neural network model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Jialin; Wang, Lingli; Charbon, Edoardo

    2017-10-01

    A quantum-implementable neural network, namely quantum probability neural network (QPNN) model, is proposed in this paper. QPNN can use quantum parallelism to trace all possible network states to improve the result. Due to its unique quantum nature, this model is robust to several quantum noises under certain conditions, which can be efficiently implemented by the qubus quantum computer. Another advantage is that QPNN can be used as memory to retrieve the most relevant data and even to generate new data. The MATLAB experimental results of Iris data classification and MNIST handwriting recognition show that much less neuron resources are required in QPNN to obtain a good result than the classical feedforward neural network. The proposed QPNN model indicates that quantum effects are useful for real-life classification tasks.

  20. Robust Forecasting for Energy Efficiency of Wireless Multimedia Sensor Networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Xue; Ma, Jun-Jie; Ding, Liang; Bi, Dao-Wei

    2007-11-15

    An important criterion of wireless sensor network is the energy efficiency inspecified applications. In this wireless multimedia sensor network, the observations arederived from acoustic sensors. Focused on the energy problem of target tracking, this paperproposes a robust forecasting method to enhance the energy efficiency of wirelessmultimedia sensor networks. Target motion information is acquired by acoustic sensornodes while a distributed network with honeycomb configuration is constructed. Thereby,target localization is performed by multiple sensor nodes collaboratively through acousticsignal processing. A novel method, combining autoregressive moving average (ARMA)model and radial basis function networks (RBFNs), is exploited to perform robust targetposition forecasting during target tracking. Then sensor nodes around the target areawakened according to the forecasted target position. With committee decision of sensornodes, target localization is performed in a distributed manner and the uncertainty ofdetection is reduced. Moreover, a sensor-to-observer routing approach of the honeycombmesh network is investigated to solve the data reporting considering the residual energy ofsensor nodes. Target localization and forecasting are implemented in experiments.Meanwhile, sensor node awakening and dynamic routing are evaluated. Experimentalresults verify that energy efficiency of wireless multimedia sensor network is enhanced bythe proposed target tracking method.

  1. Application of artificial neural network with extreme learning machine for economic growth estimation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Milačić, Ljubiša; Jović, Srđan; Vujović, Tanja; Miljković, Jovica

    2017-01-01

    The purpose of this research is to develop and apply the artificial neural network (ANN) with extreme learning machine (ELM) to forecast gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate. The economic growth forecasting was analyzed based on agriculture, manufacturing, industry and services value added in GDP. The results were compared with ANN with back propagation (BP) learning approach since BP could be considered as conventional learning methodology. The reliability of the computational models was accessed based on simulation results and using several statistical indicators. Based on results, it was shown that ANN with ELM learning methodology can be applied effectively in applications of GDP forecasting.

  2. Hydrological time series modeling: A comparison between adaptive neuro-fuzzy, neural network and autoregressive techniques

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lohani, A. K.; Kumar, Rakesh; Singh, R. D.

    2012-06-01

    SummaryTime series modeling is necessary for the planning and management of reservoirs. More recently, the soft computing techniques have been used in hydrological modeling and forecasting. In this study, the potential of artificial neural networks and neuro-fuzzy system in monthly reservoir inflow forecasting are examined by developing and comparing monthly reservoir inflow prediction models, based on autoregressive (AR), artificial neural networks (ANNs) and adaptive neural-based fuzzy inference system (ANFIS). To take care the effect of monthly periodicity in the flow data, cyclic terms are also included in the ANN and ANFIS models. Working with time series flow data of the Sutlej River at Bhakra Dam, India, several ANN and adaptive neuro-fuzzy models are trained with different input vectors. To evaluate the performance of the selected ANN and adaptive neural fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) models, comparison is made with the autoregressive (AR) models. The ANFIS model trained with the input data vector including previous inflows and cyclic terms of monthly periodicity has shown a significant improvement in the forecast accuracy in comparison with the ANFIS models trained with the input vectors considering only previous inflows. In all cases ANFIS gives more accurate forecast than the AR and ANN models. The proposed ANFIS model coupled with the cyclic terms is shown to provide better representation of the monthly inflow forecasting for planning and operation of reservoir.

  3. IMPLEMENTASI NEURAL NETWORK UNTUK MEMPREDIKSI JUMLAH PENDERITA TUBERCULOSIS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    ahmad chamsudin

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Tuberkulosis (TBC merupakan salah satu jenis penyakit menular yang memiliki jumlah penderita yang sangat banyak, bahkan Indonesia menduduki urutan ke empat jumlah terbanyak penderita Tuberkulosis di dunia. Tuberkulosis telah banyak menyebabkan kematian pada penderitanya baik dari kalangan anak-anak, dewasa sampai lanjut usia. Dengan fenomena tersebut maka dibutuhkan studi untuk memprediksi jumlah penderita tuberkulosis pada tahun-tahun yang akan datang yang nantinya dapat digunakan sebagai pendukung keputusan medis. Dalam penelitian ini Neural network digunakan untuk memprediksi jumlah penyakit tuberkulosis dengan menggunakan data bulanan dalam jangka waktu duapuluh tahun terakhir. Metode yang digunakan untuk membangun neural network yaitu dengan menggunakan tiga macam algoritme yaitu Back Propagation, Quasi-Newton dan Lavemberg-Marquardt untuk dapat meminimalkan tingkat error, dengan harapan hasil yang dicapai bisa lebih tepat dalam memprediksi jumlah penyakit tuberkulosis. Dalam penelitian ini diperoleh hasil forecasting dengan mengukur tingkat akurasi forecasting dengan membandingkan nilai MAPE dan MSE, dari ketiga algoritme didapatkan  algoritme Lavemberg-Marquardt memiliki nilai MAPE dan MSE terbaik yaitu 9,15 % dan 43419 yang menunjukkan algoritme yang paling optimal dibanding yang lain

  4. Cognitive methodology for forecasting oil and gas industry using pattern-based neural information technologies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gafurov, O.; Gafurov, D.; Syryamkin, V.

    2018-05-01

    The paper analyses a field of computer science formed at the intersection of such areas of natural science as artificial intelligence, mathematical statistics, and database theory, which is referred to as "Data Mining" (discovery of knowledge in data). The theory of neural networks is applied along with classical methods of mathematical analysis and numerical simulation. The paper describes the technique protected by the patent of the Russian Federation for the invention “A Method for Determining Location of Production Wells during the Development of Hydrocarbon Fields” [1–3] and implemented using the geoinformation system NeuroInformGeo. There are no analogues in domestic and international practice. The paper gives an example of comparing the forecast of the oil reservoir quality made by the geophysicist interpreter using standard methods and the forecast of the oil reservoir quality made using this technology. The technical result achieved shows the increase of efficiency, effectiveness, and ecological compatibility of development of mineral deposits and discovery of a new oil deposit.

  5. Forecasting systemic impact in financial networks

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hautsch, N.; Schaumburg, J.; Schienle, M.

    2014-01-01

    We propose a methodology for forecasting the systemic impact of financial institutions in interconnected systems. Utilizing a five-year sample including the 2008/9 financial crisis, we demonstrate how the approach can be used for the timely systemic risk monitoring of large European banks and

  6. Neutron spectrometry with artificial neural networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vega C, H.R.; Hernandez D, V.M.; Manzanares A, E.; Rodriguez, J.M.; Mercado S, G.A.; Iniguez de la Torre Bayo, M.P.; Barquero, R.; Arteaga A, T.

    2005-01-01

    An artificial neural network has been designed to obtain the neutron spectra from the Bonner spheres spectrometer's count rates. The neural network was trained using 129 neutron spectra. These include isotopic neutron sources; reference and operational spectra from accelerators and nuclear reactors, spectra from mathematical functions as well as few energy groups and monoenergetic spectra. The spectra were transformed from lethargy to energy distribution and were re-bin ned to 31 energy groups using the MCNP 4C code. Re-binned spectra and UTA4 response matrix were used to calculate the expected count rates in Bonner spheres spectrometer. These count rates were used as input and the respective spectrum was used as output during neural network training. After training the network was tested with the Bonner spheres count rates produced by a set of neutron spectra. This set contains data used during network training as well as data not used. Training and testing was carried out in the Mat lab program. To verify the network unfolding performance the original and unfolded spectra were compared using the χ 2 -test and the total fluence ratios. The use of Artificial Neural Networks to unfold neutron spectra in neutron spectrometry is an alternative procedure that overcomes the drawbacks associated in this ill-conditioned problem. (Author)

  7. Neutron spectrometry using artificial neural networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vega-Carrillo, Hector Rene; Martin Hernandez-Davila, Victor; Manzanares-Acuna, Eduardo; Mercado Sanchez, Gema A.; Pilar Iniguez de la Torre, Maria; Barquero, Raquel; Palacios, Francisco; Mendez Villafane, Roberto; Arteaga Arteaga, Tarcicio; Manuel Ortiz Rodriguez, Jose

    2006-01-01

    An artificial neural network has been designed to obtain neutron spectra from Bonner spheres spectrometer count rates. The neural network was trained using 129 neutron spectra. These include spectra from isotopic neutron sources; reference and operational spectra from accelerators and nuclear reactors, spectra based on mathematical functions as well as few energy groups and monoenergetic spectra. The spectra were transformed from lethargy to energy distribution and were re-binned to 31 energy groups using the MCNP 4C code. The re-binned spectra and the UTA4 response matrix were used to calculate the expected count rates in Bonner spheres spectrometer. These count rates were used as input and their respective spectra were used as output during the neural network training. After training, the network was tested with the Bonner spheres count rates produced by folding a set of neutron spectra with the response matrix. This set contains data used during network training as well as data not used. Training and testing was carried out using the Matlab ( R) program. To verify the network unfolding performance, the original and unfolded spectra were compared using the root mean square error. The use of artificial neural networks to unfold neutron spectra in neutron spectrometry is an alternative procedure that overcomes the drawbacks associated with this ill-conditioned problem

  8. Using neural networks to describe tracer correlations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. J. Lary

    2004-01-01

    Full Text Available Neural networks are ideally suited to describe the spatial and temporal dependence of tracer-tracer correlations. The neural network performs well even in regions where the correlations are less compact and normally a family of correlation curves would be required. For example, the CH4-N2O correlation can be well described using a neural network trained with the latitude, pressure, time of year, and methane volume mixing ratio (v.m.r.. In this study a neural network using Quickprop learning and one hidden layer with eight nodes was able to reproduce the CH4-N2O correlation with a correlation coefficient between simulated and training values of 0.9995. Such an accurate representation of tracer-tracer correlations allows more use to be made of long-term datasets to constrain chemical models. Such as the dataset from the Halogen Occultation Experiment (HALOE which has continuously observed CH4  (but not N2O from 1991 till the present. The neural network Fortran code used is available for download.

  9. Neural network based multiscale image restoration approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Castro, Ana Paula A.; da Silva, José D. S.

    2007-02-01

    This paper describes a neural network based multiscale image restoration approach. Multilayer perceptrons are trained with artificial images of degraded gray level circles, in an attempt to make the neural network learn inherent space relations of the degraded pixels. The present approach simulates the degradation by a low pass Gaussian filter blurring operation and the addition of noise to the pixels at pre-established rates. The training process considers the degraded image as input and the non-degraded image as output for the supervised learning process. The neural network thus performs an inverse operation by recovering a quasi non-degraded image in terms of least squared. The main difference of the approach to existing ones relies on the fact that the space relations are taken from different scales, thus providing relational space data to the neural network. The approach is an attempt to come up with a simple method that leads to an optimum solution to the problem. Considering different window sizes around a pixel simulates the multiscale operation. In the generalization phase the neural network is exposed to indoor, outdoor, and satellite degraded images following the same steps use for the artificial circle image.

  10. Inverting radiometric measurements with a neural network

    Science.gov (United States)

    Measure, Edward M.; Yee, Young P.; Balding, Jeff M.; Watkins, Wendell R.

    1992-02-01

    A neural network scheme for retrieving remotely sensed vertical temperature profiles was applied to observed ground based radiometer measurements. The neural network used microwave radiance measurements and surface measurements of temperature and pressure as inputs. Because the microwave radiometer is capable of measuring 4 oxygen channels at 5 different elevation angles (9, 15, 25, 40, and 90 degs), 20 microwave measurements are potentially available. Because these measurements have considerable redundancy, a neural network was experimented with, accepting as inputs microwave measurements taken at 53.88 GHz, 40 deg; 57.45 GHz, 40 deg; and 57.45, 90 deg. The primary test site was located at White Sands Missile Range (WSMR), NM. Results are compared with measurements made simultaneously with balloon borne radiosonde instruments and with radiometric temperature retrievals made using more conventional retrieval algorithms. The neural network was trained using a Widrow-Hoff delta rule procedure. Functions of date to include season dependence in the retrieval process and functions of time to include diurnal effects were used as inputs to the neural network.

  11. Efficient Cancer Detection Using Multiple Neural Networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shell, John; Gregory, William D

    2017-01-01

    The inspection of live excised tissue specimens to ascertain malignancy is a challenging task in dermatopathology and generally in histopathology. We introduce a portable desktop prototype device that provides highly accurate neural network classification of malignant and benign tissue. The handheld device collects 47 impedance data samples from 1 Hz to 32 MHz via tetrapolar blackened platinum electrodes. The data analysis was implemented with six different backpropagation neural networks (BNN). A data set consisting of 180 malignant and 180 benign breast tissue data files in an approved IRB study at the Aurora Medical Center, Milwaukee, WI, USA, were utilized as a neural network input. The BNN structure consisted of a multi-tiered consensus approach autonomously selecting four of six neural networks to determine a malignant or benign classification. The BNN analysis was then compared with the histology results with consistent sensitivity of 100% and a specificity of 100%. This implementation successfully relied solely on statistical variation between the benign and malignant impedance data and intricate neural network configuration. This device and BNN implementation provides a novel approach that could be a valuable tool to augment current medical practice assessment of the health of breast, squamous, and basal cell carcinoma and other excised tissue without requisite tissue specimen expertise. It has the potential to provide clinical management personnel with a fast non-invasive accurate assessment of biopsied or sectioned excised tissue in various clinical settings.

  12. Multi-Model Prediction for Demand Forecast in Water Distribution Networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rodrigo Lopez Farias

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents a multi-model predictor called Qualitative Multi-Model Predictor Plus (QMMP+ for demand forecast in water distribution networks. QMMP+ is based on the decomposition of the quantitative and qualitative information of the time-series. The quantitative component (i.e., the daily consumption prediction is forecasted and the pattern mode estimated using a Nearest Neighbor (NN classifier and a Calendar. The patterns are updated via a simple Moving Average scheme. The NN classifier and the Calendar are executed simultaneously every period and the most suited model for prediction is selected using a probabilistic approach. The proposed solution for water demand forecast is compared against Radial Basis Function Artificial Neural Networks (RBF-ANN, the statistical Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA, and Double Seasonal Holt-Winters (DSHW approaches, providing the best results when applied to real demand of the Barcelona Water Distribution Network. QMMP+ has demonstrated that the special modelling treatment of water consumption patterns improves the forecasting accuracy.

  13. Neural networks prediction and fault diagnosis applied to stationary and non stationary ARMA (Autoregressive moving average) modeled time series

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Marseguerra, M.; Minoggio, S.; Rossi, A.; Zio, E.

    1992-01-01

    The correlated noise affecting many industrial plants under stationary or cyclo-stationary conditions - nuclear reactors included -has been successfully modeled by autoregressive moving average (ARMA) due to the versatility of this technique. The relatively recent neural network methods have similar features and much effort is being devoted to exploring their usefulness in forecasting and control. Identifying a signal by means of an ARMA model gives rise to the problem of selecting its correct order. Similar difficulties must be faced when applying neural network methods and, specifically, particular care must be given to the setting up of the appropriate network topology, the data normalization procedure and the learning code. In the present paper the capability of some neural networks of learning ARMA and seasonal ARMA processes is investigated. The results of the tested cases look promising since they indicate that the neural networks learn the underlying process with relative ease so that their forecasting capability may represent a convenient fault diagnosis tool. (Author)

  14. Feedforward Nonlinear Control Using Neural Gas Network

    OpenAIRE

    Machón-González, Iván; López-García, Hilario

    2017-01-01

    Nonlinear systems control is a main issue in control theory. Many developed applications suffer from a mathematical foundation not as general as the theory of linear systems. This paper proposes a control strategy of nonlinear systems with unknown dynamics by means of a set of local linear models obtained by a supervised neural gas network. The proposed approach takes advantage of the neural gas feature by which the algorithm yields a very robust clustering procedure. The direct model of the ...

  15. Rede neural artificial aplicada à previsão de vazão da Bacia Hidrográfica do Rio Piancó Artificial neural network applied to the forecast of streamflow in the Piancó River Basin

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wanderson dos S. Sousa

    2010-02-01

    Full Text Available A previsão de vazão em um sistema hídrico não é apenas uma das técnicas utilizadas para minimizar o impacto das incertezas do clima sobre o gerenciamento dos recursos hídricos mas, também, um dos principais desafios relacionados ao conhecimento integrado da climatologia e da hidrologia de uma bacia hidrográfica. O objetivo deste trabalho foi modelar a relação não-linear entre chuva e vazão na bacia hidrográfica do rio Piancó, no semiárido paraibano, através da técnica de Redes Neurais Artificiais (RNA. Aqui se avaliou a capacidade da RNA modelar o processo chuva-vazão em base mensal e se considerou, durante o seu treinamento, a influência da arquitetura da rede e da inicialização dos pesos. No final do treinamento foi escolhida a melhor arquitetura para modelar vazões médias mensais na bacia estudada, com base no desempenho do modelo. A arquitetura de RNA que produziu melhor resultado foi a RC315L, com valores para o coeficiente de determinação, de eficiência e erro padrão da estimativa de 92,0, 77,0% e 8,29, respectivamente.Streamflow forecasting in a water system is one of the techniques used to reduce the impact of the uncertainties of the climate on administration of the water resources. That technique can be considered as one of the principal challenges related to the integrated knowledge of the climatology and of the hydrology of the river basin. The aim of this work was to model the non-linear relationship between rainfall and streamflow in the Piancó River Basin, in the Paraíba semiarid, using the technique of Artificial Neural Networks (ANN. Here the ability of ANN was evaluated to model the rainfall-runoff process on a monthly basis. During training of the ANN, the network architecture and weights initialization influence were considered. At the end of the training the best architecture was chosen, to model the streamflow monthly mean in the studied basin, based upon the performance of the model. The ANN

  16. Implementing Signature Neural Networks with Spiking Neurons.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carrillo-Medina, José Luis; Latorre, Roberto

    2016-01-01

    Spiking Neural Networks constitute the most promising approach to develop realistic Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs). Unlike traditional firing rate-based paradigms, information coding in spiking models is based on the precise timing of individual spikes. It has been demonstrated that spiking ANNs can be successfully and efficiently applied to multiple realistic problems solvable with traditional strategies (e.g., data classification or pattern recognition). In recent years, major breakthroughs in neuroscience research have discovered new relevant computational principles in different living neural systems. Could ANNs benefit from some of these recent findings providing novel elements of inspiration? This is an intriguing question for the research community and the development of spiking ANNs including novel bio-inspired information coding and processing strategies is gaining attention. From this perspective, in this work, we adapt the core concepts of the recently proposed Signature Neural Network paradigm-i.e., neural signatures to identify each unit in the network, local information contextualization during the processing, and multicoding strategies for information propagation regarding the origin and the content of the data-to be employed in a spiking neural network. To the best of our knowledge, none of these mechanisms have been used yet in the context of ANNs of spiking neurons. This paper provides a proof-of-concept for their applicability in such networks. Computer simulations show that a simple network model like the discussed here exhibits complex self-organizing properties. The combination of multiple simultaneous encoding schemes allows the network to generate coexisting spatio-temporal patterns of activity encoding information in different spatio-temporal spaces. As a function of the network and/or intra-unit parameters shaping the corresponding encoding modality, different forms of competition among the evoked patterns can emerge even in the absence

  17. Training Deep Spiking Neural Networks Using Backpropagation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Jun Haeng; Delbruck, Tobi; Pfeiffer, Michael

    2016-01-01

    Deep spiking neural networks (SNNs) hold the potential for improving the latency and energy efficiency of deep neural networks through data-driven event-based computation. However, training such networks is difficult due to the non-differentiable nature of spike events. In this paper, we introduce a novel technique, which treats the membrane potentials of spiking neurons as differentiable signals, where discontinuities at spike times are considered as noise. This enables an error backpropagation mechanism for deep SNNs that follows the same principles as in conventional deep networks, but works directly on spike signals and membrane potentials. Compared with previous methods relying on indirect training and conversion, our technique has the potential to capture the statistics of spikes more precisely. We evaluate the proposed framework on artificially generated events from the original MNIST handwritten digit benchmark, and also on the N-MNIST benchmark recorded with an event-based dynamic vision sensor, in which the proposed method reduces the error rate by a factor of more than three compared to the best previous SNN, and also achieves a higher accuracy than a conventional convolutional neural network (CNN) trained and tested on the same data. We demonstrate in the context of the MNIST task that thanks to their event-driven operation, deep SNNs (both fully connected and convolutional) trained with our method achieve accuracy equivalent with conventional neural networks. In the N-MNIST example, equivalent accuracy is achieved with about five times fewer computational operations.

  18. Fluvial facies reservoir productivity prediction method based on principal component analysis and artificial neural network

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pengyu Gao

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available It is difficult to forecast the well productivity because of the complexity of vertical and horizontal developments in fluvial facies reservoir. This paper proposes a method based on Principal Component Analysis and Artificial Neural Network to predict well productivity of fluvial facies reservoir. The method summarizes the statistical reservoir factors and engineering factors that affect the well productivity, extracts information by applying the principal component analysis method and approximates arbitrary functions of the neural network to realize an accurate and efficient prediction on the fluvial facies reservoir well productivity. This method provides an effective way for forecasting the productivity of fluvial facies reservoir which is affected by multi-factors and complex mechanism. The study result shows that this method is a practical, effective, accurate and indirect productivity forecast method and is suitable for field application.

  19. Data Mining on Romanian Stock Market Using Neural Networks for Price Prediction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Magdalena Daniela NEMES

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Predicting future prices by using time series forecasting models has become a relevant trading strategy for most stock market players. Intuition and speculation are no longer reliable as many new trading strategies based on artificial intelligence emerge. Data mining represents a good source of information, as it ensures data processing in a convenient manner. Neural networks are considered useful prediction models when designing forecasting strategies. In this paper we present a series of neural networks designed for stock exchange rates forecasting applied on three Romanian stocks traded on the Bucharest Stock Exchange (BSE. A multistep ahead strategy was used in order to predict short-time price fluctuations. Later, the findings of our study can be integrated with an intelligent multi-agent system model which uses data mining and data stream processing techniques for helping users in the decision making process of buying or selling stocks.

  20. Deep Neural Network Detects Quantum Phase Transition

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arai, Shunta; Ohzeki, Masayuki; Tanaka, Kazuyuki

    2018-03-01

    We detect the quantum phase transition of a quantum many-body system by mapping the observed results of the quantum state onto a neural network. In the present study, we utilized the simplest case of a quantum many-body system, namely a one-dimensional chain of Ising spins with the transverse Ising model. We prepared several spin configurations, which were obtained using repeated observations of the model for a particular strength of the transverse field, as input data for the neural network. Although the proposed method can be employed using experimental observations of quantum many-body systems, we tested our technique with spin configurations generated by a quantum Monte Carlo simulation without initial relaxation. The neural network successfully identified the strength of transverse field only from the spin configurations, leading to consistent estimations of the critical point of our model Γc = J.