WorldWideScience

Sample records for neural network forecasting

  1. Forecasting Energy Commodity Prices Using Neural Networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Massimo Panella

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available A new machine learning approach for price modeling is proposed. The use of neural networks as an advanced signal processing tool may be successfully used to model and forecast energy commodity prices, such as crude oil, coal, natural gas, and electricity prices. Energy commodities have shown explosive growth in the last decade. They have become a new asset class used also for investment purposes. This creates a huge demand for better modeling as what occurred in the stock markets in the 1970s. Their price behavior presents unique features causing complex dynamics whose prediction is regarded as a challenging task. The use of a Mixture of Gaussian neural network may provide significant improvements with respect to other well-known models. We propose a computationally efficient learning of this neural network using the maximum likelihood estimation approach to calibrate the parameters. The optimal model is identified using a hierarchical constructive procedure that progressively increases the model complexity. Extensive computer simulations validate the proposed approach and provide an accurate description of commodities prices dynamics.

  2. New Neural Network Methods for Forecasting Regional Employment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Patuelli, R.; Reggiani, A; Nijkamp, P.; Blien, U.

    2006-01-01

    In this paper, a set of neural network (NN) models is developed to compute short-term forecasts of regional employment patterns in Germany. Neural networks are modern statistical tools based on learning algorithms that are able to process large amounts of data. Neural networks are enjoying

  3. Sea level forecasts using neural networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Röske, Frank

    1997-03-01

    In this paper, a new method for predicting the sea level employing a neural network approach is introduced. It was designed to improve the prediction of the sea level along the German North Sea Coast under standard conditions. The sea level at any given time depends upon the tides as well as meteorological and oceanographic factors, such as the winds and external surges induced by air pressure. Since tidal predictions are already sufficiently accurate, they have been subtracted from the observed sea levels. The differences will be predicted up to 18 hours in advance. In this paper, the differences are called anomalies. The prediction of the sea level each hour is distinguished from its predictions at the times of high and low tide. For this study, Cuxhaven was selected as a reference site. The predictions made using neural networks were compared for accuracy with the prognoses prepared using six models: two hydrodynamic models, a statistical model, a nearest neighbor model, which is based on analogies, the persistence model, and the verbal forecasts that are broadcast and kept on record by the Sea Level Forecast Service of the Federal Maritime and Hydrography Agency (BSH) in Hamburg. Predictions were calculated for the year 1993 and compared with the actual levels measured. Artificial neural networks are capable of learning. By applying them to the prediction of sea levels, learning from past events has been attempted. It was also attempted to make the experiences of expert forecasters objective. Instead of using the wide-spread back-propagation networks, the self-organizing feature map of Kohonen, or “Kohonen network”, was applied. The fundamental principle of this network is the transformation of the signal similarity into the neighborhood of the neurons while preserving the topology of the signal space. The self-organization procedure of Kohonen networks can be visualized. To make predictions, these networks have been subdivided into a part describing the

  4. Neural network versus classical time series forecasting models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nor, Maria Elena; Safuan, Hamizah Mohd; Shab, Noorzehan Fazahiyah Md; Asrul, Mohd; Abdullah, Affendi; Mohamad, Nurul Asmaa Izzati; Lee, Muhammad Hisyam

    2017-05-01

    Artificial neural network (ANN) has advantage in time series forecasting as it has potential to solve complex forecasting problems. This is because ANN is data driven approach which able to be trained to map past values of a time series. In this study the forecast performance between neural network and classical time series forecasting method namely seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average models was being compared by utilizing gold price data. Moreover, the effect of different data preprocessing on the forecast performance of neural network being examined. The forecast accuracy was evaluated using mean absolute deviation, root mean square error and mean absolute percentage error. It was found that ANN produced the most accurate forecast when Box-Cox transformation was used as data preprocessing.

  5. Daily Nigerian peak load forecasting using artificial neural network ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    A daily peak load forecasting technique that uses artificial neural network with seasonal indices is presented in this paper. A neural network of relatively smaller size than the main prediction network is used to predict the daily peak load for a period of one year over which the actual daily load data are available using one ...

  6. Forecasting Water Levels Using Artificial Neural Networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shreenivas N. Londhe

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available For all Ocean related activities it is necessary to predict the actual water levels as accurate as possible. The present work aims at predicting the water levels with a lead time of few hours to a day using the technique of artificial neural networks. Instead of using the previous and current values of observed water level time series directly as input and output the water level anomaly (difference between the observed water level and harmonically predicted tidal level is calculated for each hour and the ANN model is developed using this time series. The network predicted anomaly is then added to harmonic tidal level to predict the water levels. The exercise is carried out at six locations, two in The Gulf of Mexico, two in The Gulf of Maine and two in The Gulf of Alaska along the USA coastline. The ANN models performed reasonably well for all forecasting intervals at all the locations. The ANN models were also run in real time mode for a period of eight months. Considering the hurricane season in Gulf of Mexico the models were also tested particularly during hurricanes.

  7. Initialization of multilayer forecasting artifical neural networks

    OpenAIRE

    Bochkarev, Vladimir V.; Maslennikova, Yulia S.

    2014-01-01

    In this paper, a new method was developed for initialising artificial neural networks predicting dynamics of time series. Initial weighting coefficients were determined for neurons analogously to the case of a linear prediction filter. Moreover, to improve the accuracy of the initialization method for a multilayer neural network, some variants of decomposition of the transformation matrix corresponding to the linear prediction filter were suggested. The efficiency of the proposed neural netwo...

  8. Improved Local Weather Forecasts Using Artificial Neural Networks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wollsen, Morten Gill; Jørgensen, Bo Nørregaard

    2015-01-01

    Solar irradiance and temperature forecasts are used in many different control systems. Such as intelligent climate control systems in commercial greenhouses, where the solar irradiance affects the use of supplemental lighting. This paper proposes a novel method to predict the forthcoming weather...... using an artificial neural network. The neural network used is a NARX network, which is known to model non-linear systems well. The predictions are compared to both a design reference year as well as commercial weather forecasts based upon numerical modelling. The results presented in this paper show...... that the network outperforms the commercial forecast for lower step aheads (forecast. However, the neural network approach is fast, fairly precise and allows for further expansion with higher resolution....

  9. Improving Artificial Neural Network Forecasts with Kalman Filtering ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    In this paper, we examine the use of the artificial neural network method as a forecasting technique in financial time series and the application of a Kalman filter algorithm to improve the accuracy of the model. Forecasting accuracy criteria are used to compare the two models over different set of data from different companies ...

  10. Data Driven Broiler Weight Forecasting using Dynamic Neural Network Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Johansen, Simon Vestergaard; Bendtsen, Jan Dimon; Riisgaard-Jensen, Martin

    2017-01-01

    In this article, the dynamic influence of environmental broiler house conditions and broiler growth is investigated. Dynamic neural network forecasting models have been trained on farm-scale broiler batch production data from 12 batches from the same house. The model forecasts future broiler weight...

  11. Improving Artificial Neural Network Forecasts with Kalman Filtering ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    ... used to compare the two models over different set of data from different companies over a period of 750 trading days. In all the cases we find that the Kalman filter algorithm significantly adds value to the forecasting process. Keywords: Artificial Neural Networks, Kalman filter, Stock prices, Forecasting, Back propagation ...

  12. Material procedure quality forecast based on genetic BP neural network

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zheng, Bao-Hua

    2017-07-01

    Material procedure quality forecast plays an important role in quality control. This paper proposes a prediction model based on genetic algorithm (GA) and back propagation (BP) neural network. It can obtain the initial weights and thresholds of optimized BP neural network with the GA global search ability. A material process quality prediction model with the optimized BP neural network is adopted to predict the error of future process to measure the accuracy of process quality. The results show that the proposed method has the advantages of high accuracy and fast convergence rate compared with BP neural network.

  13. Probabilistic Wind Power Forecasting with Hybrid Artificial Neural Networks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wan, Can; Song, Yonghua; Xu, Zhao

    2016-01-01

    The uncertainty of wind power generation imposes significant challenges to optimal operation and control of electricity networks with increasing wind power penetration. To effectively address the uncertainties in wind power forecasts, probabilistic forecasts that can quantify the associated...... via a bootstrap technique. Subsequently, the maximum likelihood estimation method is employed to construct a distinct neural network to estimate the noise variance of forecasting results. The proposed approach has been tested on multi-step forecasting of high-resolution (10-min) wind power using...... actual wind power data from Denmark. The numerical results demonstrate that the proposed hybrid artificial neural network approach is effective and efficient for probabilistic forecasting of wind power and has high potential in practical applications....

  14. Forecasting Baltic Dirty Tanker Index by Applying Wavelet Neural Networks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fan, Shuangrui; JI, TINGYUN; Bergqvist, Rickard

    2013-01-01

    modeling techniques used in freight rate forecasting. At the same time research in shipping index forecasting e.g. BDTI applying artificial intelligent techniques is scarce. This analyses the possibilities to forecast the BDTI by applying Wavelet Neural Networks (WNN). Firstly, the characteristics......Baltic Exchange Dirty Tanker Index (BDTI) is an important assessment index in world dirty tanker shipping industry. Actors in the industry sector can gain numerous benefits from accurate forecasting of the BDTI. However, limitations exist in traditional stochastic and econometric explanation...

  15. Wind Resource Assessment and Forecast Planning with Neural Networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nicolus K. Rotich

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available In this paper we built three types of artificial neural networks, namely: Feed forward networks, Elman networks and Cascade forward networks, for forecasting wind speeds and directions. A similar network topology was used for all the forecast horizons, regardless of the model type. All the models were then trained with real data of collected wind speeds and directions over a period of two years in the municipal of Puumala, Finland. Up to 70th percentile of the data was used for training, validation and testing, while 71–85th percentile was presented to the trained models for validation. The model outputs were then compared to the last 15% of the original data, by measuring the statistical errors between them. The feed forward networks returned the lowest errors for wind speeds. Cascade forward networks gave the lowest errors for wind directions; Elman networks returned the lowest errors when used for short term forecasting.

  16. Ocean wave forecasting using recurrent neural networks

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Mandal, S.; Prabaharan, N.

    to the biological neurons, works on the input and output passing through a hidden layer. The ANN used here is a data- oriented modeling technique to find relations between input and output patterns by self learning and without any fixed mathematical form assumed... = 1/p ? Ep (2) Where, Ep = ? ? (Tk ?Ok)2 (3) p is the total number of training patterns; Tk is the actual output and Ok is the predicted output at kth output node. In the learning process of backpropagation neural network...

  17. Stacked Heterogeneous Neural Networks for Time Series Forecasting

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Florin Leon

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available A hybrid model for time series forecasting is proposed. It is a stacked neural network, containing one normal multilayer perceptron with bipolar sigmoid activation functions, and the other with an exponential activation function in the output layer. As shown by the case studies, the proposed stacked hybrid neural model performs well on a variety of benchmark time series. The combination of weights of the two stack components that leads to optimal performance is also studied.

  18. Wind Speed Forecasting by Wavelet Neural Networks: A Comparative Study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chuanan Yao

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Due to the environmental degradation and depletion of conventional energy, much attention has been devoted to wind energy in many countries. The intermittent nature of wind power has had a great impact on power grid security. Accurate forecasting of wind speed plays a vital role in power system stability. This paper presents a comparison of three wavelet neural networks for short-term forecasting of wind speed. The first two combined models are two types of basic combinations of wavelet transform and neural network, namely, compact wavelet neural network (CWNN and loose wavelet neural network (LWNN in this study, and the third model is a new hybrid method based on the CWNN and LWNN models. The efficiency of the combined models has been evaluated by using actual wind speed from two test stations in North China. The results show that the forecasting performances of the CWNN and LWNN models are unstable and are affected by the test stations selected; the third model is far more accurate than the other forecasting models in spite of the drawback of lower computational efficiency.

  19. Deep Neural Network Based Demand Side Short Term Load Forecasting

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Seunghyoung Ryu

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available In the smart grid, one of the most important research areas is load forecasting; it spans from traditional time series analyses to recent machine learning approaches and mostly focuses on forecasting aggregated electricity consumption. However, the importance of demand side energy management, including individual load forecasting, is becoming critical. In this paper, we propose deep neural network (DNN-based load forecasting models and apply them to a demand side empirical load database. DNNs are trained in two different ways: a pre-training restricted Boltzmann machine and using the rectified linear unit without pre-training. DNN forecasting models are trained by individual customer’s electricity consumption data and regional meteorological elements. To verify the performance of DNNs, forecasting results are compared with a shallow neural network (SNN, a double seasonal Holt–Winters (DSHW model and the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA. The mean absolute percentage error (MAPE and relative root mean square error (RRMSE are used for verification. Our results show that DNNs exhibit accurate and robust predictions compared to other forecasting models, e.g., MAPE and RRMSE are reduced by up to 17% and 22% compared to SNN and 9% and 29% compared to DSHW.

  20. Forecast of consumer behaviour based on neural networks models comparison

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michael Štencl

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this article is comparison of accuracy level of forecasted values of several artificial neural network models. The comparison is performed on datasets of Czech household consumption values. Several statistical models often resolve this task with more or fewer restrictions. In previous work where models’ input conditions were not so strict and model with missing data was used (the time series didn’t contain many values we have obtained comparably good results with artificial neural networks. Two views – practical and theoretical, motivate the purpose of this study. Forecasting models for medium term prognosis of the main trends of Czech household consumption is part of the faculty research design grant MSM 6215648904/03/02 (Sub-task 5.3 which defines the practical purpose. Testing of nonlinear autoregressive artificial neural network model compared with feed-forward neural network and radial basis function neural network defines the theoretical purpose. The performance metrics of the models were evaluated using a combination of common error metrics, namely Correlation Coefficient and Mean Square Error, together with the number of epochs and/or main prediction error.

  1. An Artificial Neural Network for Data Forecasting Purposes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Catalina Lucia COCIANU

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Considering the fact that markets are generally influenced by different external factors, the stock market prediction is one of the most difficult tasks of time series analysis. The research reported in this paper aims to investigate the potential of artificial neural networks (ANN in solving the forecast task in the most general case, when the time series are non-stationary. We used a feed-forward neural architecture: the nonlinear autoregressive network with exogenous inputs. The network training function used to update the weight and bias parameters corresponds to gradient descent with adaptive learning rate variant of the backpropagation algorithm. The results obtained using this technique are compared with the ones resulted from some ARIMA models. We used the mean square error (MSE measure to evaluate the performances of these two models. The comparative analysis leads to the conclusion that the proposed model can be successfully applied to forecast the financial data.

  2. Wavelet Neural Network Model for Yield Spread Forecasting

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Firdous Ahmad Shah

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available In this study, a hybrid method based on coupling discrete wavelet transforms (DWTs and artificial neural network (ANN for yield spread forecasting is proposed. The discrete wavelet transform (DWT using five different wavelet families is applied to decompose the five different yield spreads constructed at shorter end, longer end, and policy relevant area of the yield curve to eliminate noise from them. The wavelet coefficients are then used as inputs into Levenberg-Marquardt (LM ANN models to forecast the predictive power of each of these spreads for output growth. We find that the yield spreads constructed at the shorter end and policy relevant areas of the yield curve have a better predictive power to forecast the output growth, whereas the yield spreads, which are constructed at the longer end of the yield curve do not seem to have predictive information for output growth. These results provide the robustness to the earlier results.

  3. Forecasting of IBOVESPA returns using feedforward evolutionary artificial neural networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Edgar Leite dos Santos Filho

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available Facing the challenges of anticipating financial market uncertainties and movements, and the necessity of taking buy or sell decisions supported by rational methods, market traders found in statistics and econometrics methods, the base to support their decisions. In several scientific papers about forecasting financial time series, method selection keeps as central concern. This paper compares the performance of evolutionary feedforward artificial neural network (EANN and an AR+GARCH model, for one step ahead forecasting of IBOVESPA returns. The EANN is trained by self-adapting differential evolution algorithm and AR+GARCH model is adjusted to be used as performance reference. The root mean square error (RMSE and U-Theil inequality coefficient were used as performance metrics. Simulation results showed  EANN feedforward achieved better results, fit better and captured the nonlinear behavior of returns.

  4. Forecasting stochastic neural network based on financial empirical mode decomposition.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Jie; Wang, Jun

    2017-06-01

    In an attempt to improve the forecasting accuracy of stock price fluctuations, a new one-step-ahead model is developed in this paper which combines empirical mode decomposition (EMD) with stochastic time strength neural network (STNN). The EMD is a processing technique introduced to extract all the oscillatory modes embedded in a series, and the STNN model is established for considering the weight of occurrence time of the historical data. The linear regression performs the predictive availability of the proposed model, and the effectiveness of EMD-STNN is revealed clearly through comparing the predicted results with the traditional models. Moreover, a new evaluated method (q-order multiscale complexity invariant distance) is applied to measure the predicted results of real stock index series, and the empirical results show that the proposed model indeed displays a good performance in forecasting stock market fluctuations. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  5. Forecasting macroeconomic variables using neural network models and three automated model selection techniques

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kock, Anders Bredahl; Teräsvirta, Timo

    2016-01-01

    When forecasting with neural network models one faces several problems, all of which influence the accuracy of the forecasts. First, neural networks are often hard to estimate due to their highly nonlinear structure. To alleviate the problem, White (2006) presented a solution (QuickNet...

  6. Confidence intervals in Flow Forecasting by using artificial neural networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Panagoulia, Dionysia; Tsekouras, George

    2014-05-01

    One of the major inadequacies in implementation of Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) for flow forecasting is the development of confidence intervals, because the relevant estimation cannot be implemented directly, contrasted to the classical forecasting methods. The variation in the ANN output is a measure of uncertainty in the model predictions based on the training data set. Different methods for uncertainty analysis, such as bootstrap, Bayesian, Monte Carlo, have already proposed for hydrologic and geophysical models, while methods for confidence intervals, such as error output, re-sampling, multi-linear regression adapted to ANN have been used for power load forecasting [1-2]. The aim of this paper is to present the re-sampling method for ANN prediction models and to develop this for flow forecasting of the next day. The re-sampling method is based on the ascending sorting of the errors between real and predicted values for all input vectors. The cumulative sample distribution function of the prediction errors is calculated and the confidence intervals are estimated by keeping the intermediate value, rejecting the extreme values according to the desired confidence levels, and holding the intervals symmetrical in probability. For application of the confidence intervals issue, input vectors are used from the Mesochora catchment in western-central Greece. The ANN's training algorithm is the stochastic training back-propagation process with decreasing functions of learning rate and momentum term, for which an optimization process is conducted regarding the crucial parameters values, such as the number of neurons, the kind of activation functions, the initial values and time parameters of learning rate and momentum term etc. Input variables are historical data of previous days, such as flows, nonlinearly weather related temperatures and nonlinearly weather related rainfalls based on correlation analysis between the under prediction flow and each implicit input

  7. Appraisal of artificial neural network for forecasting of economic parameters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kordanuli, Bojana; Barjaktarović, Lidija; Jeremić, Ljiljana; Alizamir, Meysam

    2017-01-01

    The main aim of this research is to develop and apply artificial neural network (ANN) with extreme learning machine (ELM) and back propagation (BP) to forecast gross domestic product (GDP) and Hirschman-Herfindahl Index (HHI). GDP could be developed based on combination of different factors. In this investigation GDP forecasting based on the agriculture and industry added value in gross domestic product (GDP) was analysed separately. Other inputs are final consumption expenditure of general government, gross fixed capital formation (investments) and fertility rate. The relation between product market competition and corporate investment is contentious. On one hand, the relation can be positive, but on the other hand, the relation can be negative. Several methods have been proposed to monitor market power for the purpose of developing procedures to mitigate or eliminate the effects. The most widely used methods are based on indices such as the Hirschman-Herfindahl Index (HHI). The reliability of the ANN models were accessed based on simulation results and using several statistical indicators. Based upon simulation results, it was presented that ELM shows better performances than BP learning algorithm in applications of GDP and HHI forecasting.

  8. Inflow forecasting using Artificial Neural Networks for reservoir operation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. Chiamsathit

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available In this study, multi-layer perceptron (MLP artificial neural networks have been applied to forecast one-month-ahead inflow for the Ubonratana reservoir, Thailand. To assess how well the forecast inflows have performed in the operation of the reservoir, simulations were carried out guided by the systems rule curves. As basis of comparison, four inflow situations were considered: (1 inflow known and assumed to be the historic (Type A; (2 inflow known and assumed to be the forecast (Type F; (3 inflow known and assumed to be the historic mean for month (Type M; and (4 inflow is unknown with release decision only conditioned on the starting reservoir storage (Type N. Reservoir performance was summarised in terms of reliability, resilience, vulnerability and sustainability. It was found that Type F inflow situation produced the best performance while Type N was the worst performing. This clearly demonstrates the importance of good inflow information for effective reservoir operation.

  9. Urban Ozone Concentration Forecasting with Artificial Neural Network in Corsica

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tamas Wani

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available Atmospheric pollutants concentration forecasting is an important issue in air quality monitoring. Qualitair Corse, the organization responsible for monitoring air quality in Corsica (France, needs to develop a short-term prediction model to lead its mission of information towards the public. Various deterministic models exist for local forecasting, but need important computing resources, a good knowledge of atmospheric processes and can be inaccurate because of local climatical or geographical particularities, as observed in Corsica, a mountainous island located in the Mediterranean Sea. As a result, we focus in this study on statistical models, and particularly Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs that have shown good results in the prediction of ozone concentration one hour ahead with data measured locally. The purpose of this study is to build a predictor realizing predictions of ozone 24 hours ahead in Corsica in order to be able to anticipate pollution peaks formation and to take appropriate preventive measures. Specific meteorological conditions are known to lead to particular pollution event in Corsica (e.g. Saharan dust events. Therefore, an ANN model will be used with pollutant and meteorological data for operational forecasting. Index of agreement of this model was calculated with a one year test dataset and reached 0.88.

  10. A Bayesian regularized artificial neural network for adaptive optics forecasting

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, Zhi; Chen, Ying; Li, Xinyang; Qin, Xiaolin; Wang, Huiyong

    2017-01-01

    Real-time adaptive optics is a technology for enhancing the resolution of ground-based optical telescopes and overcoming the disturbance of atmospheric turbulence. The performance of the system is limited by delay errors induced by the servo system and photoelectrons noise of wavefront sensor. In order to cut these delay errors, this paper proposes a novel model to forecast the future control voltages of the deformable mirror. The predictive model is constructed by a multi-layered back propagation network with Bayesian regularization (BRBP). For the purpose of parallel computation and less disturbance, we adopt a number of sub-BP neural networks to substitute the whole network. The Bayesian regularized network assigns a probability to the network weights, allowing the network to automatically and optimally penalize excessively complex models. The simulation results show that the BRBP introduces smaller mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) and mean square errors (MSE) than other typical algorithms. Meanwhile, real data analysis results show that the BRBP model has strong generalization capability and parallelism.

  11. Forecasting financial asset processes: stochastic dynamics via learning neural networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Giebel, S; Rainer, M

    2010-01-01

    Models for financial asset dynamics usually take into account their inherent unpredictable nature by including a suitable stochastic component into their process. Unknown (forward) values of financial assets (at a given time in the future) are usually estimated as expectations of the stochastic asset under a suitable risk-neutral measure. This estimation requires the stochastic model to be calibrated to some history of sufficient length in the past. Apart from inherent limitations, due to the stochastic nature of the process, the predictive power is also limited by the simplifying assumptions of the common calibration methods, such as maximum likelihood estimation and regression methods, performed often without weights on the historic time series, or with static weights only. Here we propose a novel method of "intelligent" calibration, using learning neural networks in order to dynamically adapt the parameters of the stochastic model. Hence we have a stochastic process with time dependent parameters, the dynamics of the parameters being themselves learned continuously by a neural network. The back propagation in training the previous weights is limited to a certain memory length (in the examples we consider 10 previous business days), which is similar to the maximal time lag of autoregressive processes. We demonstrate the learning efficiency of the new algorithm by tracking the next-day forecasts for the EURTRY and EUR-HUF exchange rates each.

  12. Combining neural networks and genetic algorithms for hydrological flow forecasting

    Science.gov (United States)

    Neruda, Roman; Srejber, Jan; Neruda, Martin; Pascenko, Petr

    2010-05-01

    We present a neural network approach to rainfall-runoff modeling for small size river basins based on several time series of hourly measured data. Different neural networks are considered for short time runoff predictions (from one to six hours lead time) based on runoff and rainfall data observed in previous time steps. Correlation analysis shows that runoff data, short time rainfall history, and aggregated API values are the most significant data for the prediction. Neural models of multilayer perceptron and radial basis function networks with different numbers of units are used and compared with more traditional linear time series predictors. Out of possible 48 hours of relevant history of all the input variables, the most important ones are selected by means of input filters created by a genetic algorithm. The genetic algorithm works with population of binary encoded vectors defining input selection patterns. Standard genetic operators of two-point crossover, random bit-flipping mutation, and tournament selection were used. The evaluation of objective function of each individual consists of several rounds of building and testing a particular neural network model. The whole procedure is rather computational exacting (taking hours to days on a desktop PC), thus a high-performance mainframe computer has been used for our experiments. Results based on two years worth data from the Ploucnice river in Northern Bohemia suggest that main problems connected with this approach to modeling are ovetraining that can lead to poor generalization, and relatively small number of extreme events which makes it difficult for a model to predict the amplitude of the event. Thus, experiments with both absolute and relative runoff predictions were carried out. In general it can be concluded that the neural models show about 5 per cent improvement in terms of efficiency coefficient over liner models. Multilayer perceptrons with one hidden layer trained by back propagation algorithm and

  13. Forecasting of Market Clearing Price by Using GA Based Neural Network

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Bo; Chen, Yun-Ping; Zhao, Zun-Lian; Han, Qi-Ye

    Forecasting of Market Clearing Price (MCP) is important to economic benefits of electricity market participants. To accurately forecast MCP, a novel two-stage GA-based neural network model (GA-NN) is proposed. In the first stage, GA chromosome is designed into two parts: boolean coding part for neural network topology and real coding part for connection weights. By hybrid genetic operation of selection, crossover and mutation under the criterion of error minimization between the actual output and the desired output, optimal architecture of neural network is obtained. In the second stage, gradient learning algorithm with momentum rate is imposed on neural network with optimal architecture. After learning process, optimal connection weights are obtained. The proposed model is tested on MCP forecasting in California electricity market. The test results show that GA-NN has self-adaptive ability in its topology and connection weights and can obtain more accurate MCP forecasting values than BP neural network.

  14. Forecasting Macroeconomic Variables using Neural Network Models and Three Automated Model Selection Techniques

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kock, Anders Bredahl; Teräsvirta, Timo

    In this paper we consider the forecasting performance of a well-defined class of flexible models, the so-called single hidden-layer feedforward neural network models. A major aim of our study is to find out whether they, due to their flexibility, are as useful tools in economic forecasting as some...... previous studies have indicated. When forecasting with neural network models one faces several problems, all of which influence the accuracy of the forecasts. First, neural networks are often hard to estimate due to their highly nonlinear structure. In fact, their parameters are not even globally...... on the linearisation idea: the Marginal Bridge Estimator and Autometrics. Second, one must decide whether forecasting should be carried out recursively or directly. Comparisons of these two methodss exist for linear models and here these comparisons are extended to neural networks. Finally, a nonlinear model...

  15. Hybrid Forecasting Approach Based on GRNN Neural Network and SVR Machine for Electricity Demand Forecasting

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Weide Li

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Accurate electric power demand forecasting plays a key role in electricity markets and power systems. The electric power demand is usually a non-linear problem due to various unknown reasons, which make it difficult to get accurate prediction by traditional methods. The purpose of this paper is to propose a novel hybrid forecasting method for managing and scheduling the electricity power. EEMD-SCGRNN-PSVR, the proposed new method, combines ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD, seasonal adjustment (S, cross validation (C, general regression neural network (GRNN and support vector regression machine optimized by the particle swarm optimization algorithm (PSVR. The main idea of EEMD-SCGRNN-PSVR is respectively to forecast waveform and trend component that hidden in demand series to substitute directly forecasting original electric demand. EEMD-SCGRNN-PSVR is used to predict the one week ahead half-hour’s electricity demand in two data sets (New South Wales (NSW and Victorian State (VIC in Australia. Experimental results show that the new hybrid model outperforms the other three models in terms of forecasting accuracy and model robustness.

  16. Electricity market price forecasting by grid computing optimizing artificial neural networks

    OpenAIRE

    Niimura, T.; Ozawa, K.; Sakamoto, N.

    2007-01-01

    This paper presents a grid computing approach to parallel-process a neural network time-series model for forecasting electricity market prices. A grid computing environment introduced in a university computing laboratory provides access to otherwise underused computing resources. The grid computing of the neural network model not only processes several times faster than a single iterative process, but also provides chances of improving forecasting accuracy. Results of numerical tests using re...

  17. Artificial Neural Network versus Linear Models Forecasting Doha Stock Market

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yousif, Adil; Elfaki, Faiz

    2017-12-01

    The purpose of this study is to determine the instability of Doha stock market and develop forecasting models. Linear time series models are used and compared with a nonlinear Artificial Neural Network (ANN) namely Multilayer Perceptron (MLP) Technique. It aims to establish the best useful model based on daily and monthly data which are collected from Qatar exchange for the period starting from January 2007 to January 2015. Proposed models are for the general index of Qatar stock exchange and also for the usages in other several sectors. With the help of these models, Doha stock market index and other various sectors were predicted. The study was conducted by using various time series techniques to study and analyze data trend in producing appropriate results. After applying several models, such as: Quadratic trend model, double exponential smoothing model, and ARIMA, it was concluded that ARIMA (2,2) was the most suitable linear model for the daily general index. However, ANN model was found to be more accurate than time series models.

  18. Neural networks forecast in small catchments with transfer of network parameters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maca, P.; Havlicek, V.; Hermanovsky, M.; Horacek, S.; Pech, P.

    2009-04-01

    This contribution deals with neural network approach for short term forecast on small catchments. The applied methodology is based on theory of multilayer perceptron (MLP), feed forward neural network with back propagation optimization procedure was tested in order to explore the possibilities to transfer parameters between different catchments. Supervised optimization of network parameters and structure was investigated. A software tool was created for these research and operative purposes. The hourly discharges and rainfall data of real flood events served as an input to MLP. Seven catchments with areas, which range from 10 to 250 square kilometres and which are situated in the east part of the Czech Republic, were selected. The input data were normalized by parametric method. Variable configuration of neural network was tested in number of modes represented by different combination of learning and testing data sets. The analysis focuses on ability of the model to forecast the flood event with different peak discharge magnitudes. This should be achieved in both application steps - MLP learning and testing within given catchment and in step of parameter transfer of well learned network to another catchment. The length of prediction ranged from one hour to six hours ahead. The results showed that the model is capable to provide satisfying short term discharge forecast for the most of studied cases, including successful parameter transfer among different catchments. This was accomplished by using optimization of parameters which determine not only the structure and behaviour of applied network but also the transformation of input data.

  19. Fast training of neural networks for load forecasting

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Agosta, J.M.; Nielsen, N.R.; Andeen, G. [SRI International, Menlo Park, CA (United States)

    1996-10-01

    Predicting load demand (e.g., demand for electric power) in a data-rich environment is basically a regression problem. To be successful, however, any regression technique must take into account the nonlinear nature of the problem. Numerous nonlinear regression methods have become practical, with the availability of more powerful computers. Perhaps the best known of these methods are techniques that have been popularized under the name of neural networks, and the most common of these is the back-propagation neural network (BPNN). This paper explains the advantage of a different nonlinear regression method known as the probabilistic neural network (PNN).

  20. Short-Term Load Forecasting Model Based on Quantum Elman Neural Networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhisheng Zhang

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Short-term load forecasting model based on quantum Elman neural networks was constructed in this paper. The quantum computation and Elman feedback mechanism were integrated into quantum Elman neural networks. Quantum computation can effectively improve the approximation capability and the information processing ability of the neural networks. Quantum Elman neural networks have not only the feedforward connection but also the feedback connection. The feedback connection between the hidden nodes and the context nodes belongs to the state feedback in the internal system, which has formed specific dynamic memory performance. Phase space reconstruction theory is the theoretical basis of constructing the forecasting model. The training samples are formed by means of K-nearest neighbor approach. Through the example simulation, the testing results show that the model based on quantum Elman neural networks is better than the model based on the quantum feedforward neural network, the model based on the conventional Elman neural network, and the model based on the conventional feedforward neural network. So the proposed model can effectively improve the prediction accuracy. The research in the paper makes a theoretical foundation for the practical engineering application of the short-term load forecasting model based on quantum Elman neural networks.

  1. Ridge Polynomial Neural Network with Error Feedback for Time Series Forecasting.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Waheeb, Waddah; Ghazali, Rozaida; Herawan, Tutut

    2016-01-01

    Time series forecasting has gained much attention due to its many practical applications. Higher-order neural network with recurrent feedback is a powerful technique that has been used successfully for time series forecasting. It maintains fast learning and the ability to learn the dynamics of the time series over time. Network output feedback is the most common recurrent feedback for many recurrent neural network models. However, not much attention has been paid to the use of network error feedback instead of network output feedback. In this study, we propose a novel model, called Ridge Polynomial Neural Network with Error Feedback (RPNN-EF) that incorporates higher order terms, recurrence and error feedback. To evaluate the performance of RPNN-EF, we used four univariate time series with different forecasting horizons, namely star brightness, monthly smoothed sunspot numbers, daily Euro/Dollar exchange rate, and Mackey-Glass time-delay differential equation. We compared the forecasting performance of RPNN-EF with the ordinary Ridge Polynomial Neural Network (RPNN) and the Dynamic Ridge Polynomial Neural Network (DRPNN). Simulation results showed an average 23.34% improvement in Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) with respect to RPNN and an average 10.74% improvement with respect to DRPNN. That means that using network errors during training helps enhance the overall forecasting performance for the network.

  2. Ridge Polynomial Neural Network with Error Feedback for Time Series Forecasting.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Waddah Waheeb

    Full Text Available Time series forecasting has gained much attention due to its many practical applications. Higher-order neural network with recurrent feedback is a powerful technique that has been used successfully for time series forecasting. It maintains fast learning and the ability to learn the dynamics of the time series over time. Network output feedback is the most common recurrent feedback for many recurrent neural network models. However, not much attention has been paid to the use of network error feedback instead of network output feedback. In this study, we propose a novel model, called Ridge Polynomial Neural Network with Error Feedback (RPNN-EF that incorporates higher order terms, recurrence and error feedback. To evaluate the performance of RPNN-EF, we used four univariate time series with different forecasting horizons, namely star brightness, monthly smoothed sunspot numbers, daily Euro/Dollar exchange rate, and Mackey-Glass time-delay differential equation. We compared the forecasting performance of RPNN-EF with the ordinary Ridge Polynomial Neural Network (RPNN and the Dynamic Ridge Polynomial Neural Network (DRPNN. Simulation results showed an average 23.34% improvement in Root Mean Square Error (RMSE with respect to RPNN and an average 10.74% improvement with respect to DRPNN. That means that using network errors during training helps enhance the overall forecasting performance for the network.

  3. Investigating and forecasting coastal Adriatic surface currents by using neural networks (NEURAL)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vilibic, Ivica; Zagar, Nedjeljka; Cosoli, Simone; Dadic, Vlado; Horvath, Kristian; Ivankovic, Damir; Jesenko, Blaz; Mihanovic, Hrvoje; Sepic, Jadranka; Tudor, Martina

    2014-05-01

    We present major components of the project NEURAL (www.izor.hr/neural) funded by the Unity Through Knowledge Fund (www.ukf.hr). The project aims to investigate and to build an efficient and reliable prototype of the ocean surface current forecasting system, based on high-frequency (HF) radar measurements, numerical weather prediction (NWP) model outputs and neural network algorithms (Self-Organising Maps). The Self-Organising Maps (SOM) method, a kind of neural network algorithms that performs a nonlinear smooth mapping of high-dimensional input data into the elements of a low-dimensional array, has previously been used on historical HF radar measurements and NWP Aladin/HR wind fields, which were operational in the northern Adriatic during 2008. It was found that the SOM surface currents patterns and associated SOM surface currents and winds patterns were highly correlated, indicating the predominance of the wind-driven forcing on the measured ocean currents. Therefore, a forecasting system has been proposed, that will use operational NWP products for the Adriatic region, then search for the closest SOM solutions in wind fields and finally to forecast ocean currents by using associated SOM patterns in HF radar currents. Such a prototype forecasting system will be tested on a long and quality-checked HF radar surface currents dataset available in the northern Adriatic, where the first part of the series will be used for the training of the SOM and the second part for assessing the skill performance of the surface currents hindcast. Two NWP systems will be used on the project: (1) high-resolution non-hydrostatic research WRF-ARW model based at the Faculty of Mathematics and Physics of the University of Ljubljana, and (2) operational Aladin/HR NWP system of the Meteorological and Hydrological Service of Croatia. The prototype forecasting system will be also tested in the middle Adriatic after the collection of substantially long high-quality surface currents dataset

  4. Solar and wind forecasting by NARX neural networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Di Piazza Annalisa

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The nonlinear autoregressive network with exogenous input (NARX is used to perform hourly solar irradiation and wind speed forecasting, according to a multi-step ahead approach. Temperature has been considered as the exogenous variable. The NARX topology selection is supported by a combined use of two techniques: (1 a genetic algorithm (GA-based optimization technique and (2 a method that determines the optimal network architecture by pruning (optimal brain surgeon (OBS strategy. The considered variables are observed at hourly scale in a seven year dataset and the forecasting is done for several time horizons in the range from 8 to 24 h ahead.

  5. Time Series Forecasting of Daily Reference Evapotranspiration by Neural Network Ensemble Learning for Irrigation System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Manikumari, N.; Murugappan, A.; Vinodhini, G.

    2017-07-01

    Time series forecasting has gained remarkable interest of researchers in the last few decades. Neural networks based time series forecasting have been employed in various application areas. Reference Evapotranspiration (ETO) is one of the most important components of the hydrologic cycle and its precise assessment is vital in water balance and crop yield estimation, water resources system design and management. This work aimed at achieving accurate time series forecast of ETO using a combination of neural network approaches. This work was carried out using data collected in the command area of VEERANAM Tank during the period 2004 – 2014 in India. In this work, the Neural Network (NN) models were combined by ensemble learning in order to improve the accuracy for forecasting Daily ETO (for the year 2015). Bagged Neural Network (Bagged-NN) and Boosted Neural Network (Boosted-NN) ensemble learning were employed. It has been proved that Bagged-NN and Boosted-NN ensemble models are better than individual NN models in terms of accuracy. Among the ensemble models, Boosted-NN reduces the forecasting errors compared to Bagged-NN and individual NNs. Regression co-efficient, Mean Absolute Deviation, Mean Absolute Percentage error and Root Mean Square Error also ascertain that Boosted-NN lead to improved ETO forecasting performance.

  6. A New Training Method for Analyzable Structured Neural Network and Application of Daily Peak Load Forecasting

    Science.gov (United States)

    Iizaka, Tatsuya; Matsui, Tetsuro; Fukuyama, Yoshikazu

    This paper presents a daily peak load forecasting method using an analyzable structured neural network (ASNN) in order to explain forecasting reasons. In this paper, we propose a new training method for ASNN in order to explain forecasting reason more properly than the conventional training method. ASNN consists of two types of hidden units. One type of hidden units has connecting weights between the hidden units and only one group of related input units. Another one has connecting weights between the hidden units and all input units. The former type of hidden units allows to explain forecasting reasons. The latter type of hidden units ensures the forecasting performance. The proposed training method make the former type of hidden units train only independent relations between the input factors and output, and make the latter type of hidden units train only complicated interactions between input factors. The effectiveness of the proposed neural network is shown using actual daily peak load. ASNN trained by the proposed method can explain forecasting reasons more properly than ASNN trained by the conventional method. Moreover, the proposed neural network can forecast daily peak load more accurately than conventional neural network trained by the back propagation algorithm.

  7. Modelling and Forecasting Cruise Tourism Demand to İzmir by Different Artificial Neural Network Architectures

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Murat Cuhadar

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Cruise ports emerged as an important sector for the economy of Turkey bordered on three sides by water. Forecasting cruise tourism demand ensures better planning, efficient preparation at the destination and it is the basis for elaboration of future plans. In the recent years, new techniques such as; artificial neural networks were employed for developing of the predictive models to estimate tourism demand. In this study, it is aimed to determine the forecasting method that provides the best performance when compared the forecast accuracy of Multi-layer Perceptron (MLP, Radial Basis Function (RBF and Generalized Regression neural network (GRNN to estimate the monthly inbound cruise tourism demand to İzmir via the method giving best results. We used the total number of foreign cruise tourist arrivals as a measure of inbound cruise tourism demand and monthly cruise tourist arrivals to İzmir Cruise Port in the period of January 2005 ‐December 2013 were utilized to appropriate model. Experimental results showed that radial basis function (RBF neural network outperforms multi-layer perceptron (MLP and the generalised regression neural networks (GRNN in terms of forecasting accuracy. By the means of the obtained RBF neural network model, it has been forecasted the monthly inbound cruise tourism demand to İzmir for the year 2014.

  8. Forecasting SPEI and SPI Drought Indices Using the Integrated Artificial Neural Networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Petr Maca

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The presented paper compares forecast of drought indices based on two different models of artificial neural networks. The first model is based on feedforward multilayer perceptron, sANN, and the second one is the integrated neural network model, hANN. The analyzed drought indices are the standardized precipitation index (SPI and the standardized precipitation evaporation index (SPEI and were derived for the period of 1948–2002 on two US catchments. The meteorological and hydrological data were obtained from MOPEX experiment. The training of both neural network models was made by the adaptive version of differential evolution, JADE. The comparison of models was based on six model performance measures. The results of drought indices forecast, explained by the values of four model performance indices, show that the integrated neural network model was superior to the feedforward multilayer perceptron with one hidden layer of neurons.

  9. Matlab for Forecasting of Electric Power Load Based on BP Neural Network

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Xi-Ping; Shi, Ming-Xi

    Modeling and predicting electricity consumption play a vital role both in developed and developing countries for policy makers and related organizations. Improve load forecasting technology level is not only beneficial to plan power management and make reasonable construction plan, but also good for saving energy and reducing power cost, and then, it can improve the economic benefits and social benefit for power system. BP neural network is one of the most widely used neural networks and it has many advantages in the power load forecasting. Matlab has become the best technology application software which has been internationally recognized, the software has many characteristics, such as data visualization function and neural network toolbox, for these, it is the essential software when we do some research on neural network.

  10. Evaluation of artificial neural network techniques for flow forecasting in the River Yangtze, China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. W. Dawson

    2002-01-01

    Full Text Available While engineers have been quantifying rainfall-runoff processes since the mid-19th century, it is only in the last decade that artificial neural network models have been applied to the same task. This paper evaluates two neural networks in this context: the popular multilayer perceptron (MLP, and the radial basis function network (RBF. Using six-hourly rainfall-runoff data for the River Yangtze at Yichang (upstream of the Three Gorges Dam for the period 1991 to 1993, it is shown that both neural network types can simulate river flows beyond the range of the training set. In addition, an evaluation of alternative RBF transfer functions demonstrates that the popular Gaussian function, often used in RBF networks, is not necessarily the ‘best’ function to use for river flow forecasting. Comparisons are also made between these neural networks and conventional statistical techniques; stepwise multiple linear regression, auto regressive moving average models and a zero order forecasting approach. Keywords: Artificial neural network, multilayer perception, radial basis function, flood forecasting

  11. Short-term localized weather forecasting by using different artificial neural network algorithm in tropical climate

    OpenAIRE

    Mohd-Safar, Noor Zuraidin; Ndzi, David Lorater; Kagalidis, Ioannis; Yang, Yanyan; Zakaria, Ammar

    2016-01-01

    This paper evaluates the performance of localized weather forecasting model using Artificial Neural Network (ANN) with different ANN algorithms in a tropical climate. Three ANN algorithms namely, Levenberg-Marquardt, Bayesian Regularization and Scaled Conjugate Gradient are used in the short-term weather forecasting model. The study focuses on the data from North-West Malaysia (Chuping). Meteorological data such as atmospheric pressure, temperature, dew point, humidity and wind speed are used...

  12. Intelligent Soft Computing on Forex: Exchange Rates Forecasting with Hybrid Radial Basis Neural Network

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lukas Falat

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper deals with application of quantitative soft computing prediction models into financial area as reliable and accurate prediction models can be very helpful in management decision-making process. The authors suggest a new hybrid neural network which is a combination of the standard RBF neural network, a genetic algorithm, and a moving average. The moving average is supposed to enhance the outputs of the network using the error part of the original neural network. Authors test the suggested model on high-frequency time series data of USD/CAD and examine the ability to forecast exchange rate values for the horizon of one day. To determine the forecasting efficiency, they perform a comparative statistical out-of-sample analysis of the tested model with autoregressive models and the standard neural network. They also incorporate genetic algorithm as an optimizing technique for adapting parameters of ANN which is then compared with standard backpropagation and backpropagation combined with K-means clustering algorithm. Finally, the authors find out that their suggested hybrid neural network is able to produce more accurate forecasts than the standard models and can be helpful in eliminating the risk of making the bad decision in decision-making process.

  13. Intelligent Soft Computing on Forex: Exchange Rates Forecasting with Hybrid Radial Basis Neural Network.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Falat, Lukas; Marcek, Dusan; Durisova, Maria

    2016-01-01

    This paper deals with application of quantitative soft computing prediction models into financial area as reliable and accurate prediction models can be very helpful in management decision-making process. The authors suggest a new hybrid neural network which is a combination of the standard RBF neural network, a genetic algorithm, and a moving average. The moving average is supposed to enhance the outputs of the network using the error part of the original neural network. Authors test the suggested model on high-frequency time series data of USD/CAD and examine the ability to forecast exchange rate values for the horizon of one day. To determine the forecasting efficiency, they perform a comparative statistical out-of-sample analysis of the tested model with autoregressive models and the standard neural network. They also incorporate genetic algorithm as an optimizing technique for adapting parameters of ANN which is then compared with standard backpropagation and backpropagation combined with K-means clustering algorithm. Finally, the authors find out that their suggested hybrid neural network is able to produce more accurate forecasts than the standard models and can be helpful in eliminating the risk of making the bad decision in decision-making process.

  14. Forecasting Natural Gas Prices Using Wavelets, Time Series, and Artificial Neural Networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jin, Junghwan; Kim, Jinsoo

    2015-01-01

    Following the unconventional gas revolution, the forecasting of natural gas prices has become increasingly important because the association of these prices with those of crude oil has weakened. With this as motivation, we propose some modified hybrid models in which various combinations of the wavelet approximation, detail components, autoregressive integrated moving average, generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity, and artificial neural network models are employed to predict natural gas prices. We also emphasize the boundary problem in wavelet decomposition, and compare results that consider the boundary problem case with those that do not. The empirical results show that our suggested approach can handle the boundary problem, such that it facilitates the extraction of the appropriate forecasting results. The performance of the wavelet-hybrid approach was superior in all cases, whereas the application of detail components in the forecasting was only able to yield a small improvement in forecasting performance. Therefore, forecasting with only an approximation component would be acceptable, in consideration of forecasting efficiency.

  15. Peak load demand forecasting using two-level discrete wavelet decomposition and neural network algorithm

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bunnoon, Pituk; Chalermyanont, Kusumal; Limsakul, Chusak

    2010-02-01

    This paper proposed the discrete transform and neural network algorithms to obtain the monthly peak load demand in mid term load forecasting. The mother wavelet daubechies2 (db2) is employed to decomposed, high pass filter and low pass filter signals from the original signal before using feed forward back propagation neural network to determine the forecasting results. The historical data records in 1997-2007 of Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand (EGAT) is used as reference. In this study, historical information of peak load demand(MW), mean temperature(Tmean), consumer price index (CPI), and industrial index (economic:IDI) are used as feature inputs of the network. The experimental results show that the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) is approximately 4.32%. This forecasting results can be used for fuel planning and unit commitment of the power system in the future.

  16. Artificial neural networks to forecast biomass of Pacific sardine and its environment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Cisneros Mata, M.A.; Brey, T.; Jarre, Astrid

    1996-01-01

    We tested the forecasting performance of artificial neural networks (ANNs) using several time series of environmental and biotic data pertaining to the California Current (CC) neritic ecosystem. ANNs performed well predicting CC monthly 10-m depth temperature up to nine years in advance, using te...

  17. Comparisons of forecasting for hepatitis in Guangxi Province, China by using three neural networks models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ruijing Gan

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available This study compares and evaluates the prediction of hepatitis in Guangxi Province, China by using back propagation neural networks based genetic algorithm (BPNN-GA, generalized regression neural networks (GRNN, and wavelet neural networks (WNN. In order to compare the results of forecasting, the data obtained from 2004 to 2013 and 2014 were used as modeling and forecasting samples, respectively. The results show that when the small data set of hepatitis has seasonal fluctuation, the prediction result by BPNN-GA will be better than the two other methods. The WNN method is suitable for predicting the large data set of hepatitis that has seasonal fluctuation and the same for the GRNN method when the data increases steadily.

  18. An artificial neural network model for rainfall forecasting in Bangkok, Thailand

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N. Q. Hung

    2009-08-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents a new approach using an Artificial Neural Network technique to improve rainfall forecast performance. A real world case study was set up in Bangkok; 4 years of hourly data from 75 rain gauge stations in the area were used to develop the ANN model. The developed ANN model is being applied for real time rainfall forecasting and flood management in Bangkok, Thailand. Aimed at providing forecasts in a near real time schedule, different network types were tested with different kinds of input information. Preliminary tests showed that a generalized feedforward ANN model using hyperbolic tangent transfer function achieved the best generalization of rainfall. Especially, the use of a combination of meteorological parameters (relative humidity, air pressure, wet bulb temperature and cloudiness, the rainfall at the point of forecasting and rainfall at the surrounding stations, as an input data, advanced ANN model to apply with continuous data containing rainy and non-rainy period, allowed model to issue forecast at any moment. Additionally, forecasts by ANN model were compared to the convenient approach namely simple persistent method. Results show that ANN forecasts have superiority over the ones obtained by the persistent model. Rainfall forecasts for Bangkok from 1 to 3 h ahead were highly satisfactory. Sensitivity analysis indicated that the most important input parameter besides rainfall itself is the wet bulb temperature in forecasting rainfall.

  19. Prospects of application of artificial neural networks for forecasting of cargo transportation volume in transport systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. T. Yakupov

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of research – to identify the prospects for the use of neural network approach in relation to the tasks of economic forecasting of logistics performance, in particular of volume freight traffic in the transport system promiscuous regional freight traffic, as well as to substantiate the effectiveness of the use of artificial neural networks (ANN, as compared with the efficiency of traditional extrapolative methods of forecasting. The authors consider the possibility of forecasting to use ANN for these economic indicators not as an alternative to the traditional methods of statistical forecasting, but as one of the available simple means for solving complex problems.Materials and methods. When predicting the ANN, three methods of learning were used: 1 the Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm-network training stops when the generalization ceases to improve, which is shown by the increase in the mean square error of the output value; 2 Bayes regularization method - network training is stopped in accordance with the minimization of adaptive weights; 3 the method of scaled conjugate gradients, which is used to find the local extremum of a function on the basis of information about its values and gradient. The Neural Network Toolbox package is used for forecasting. The neural network model consists of a hidden layer of neurons with a sigmoidal activation function and an output neuron with a linear activation function, the input values of the dynamic time series, and the predicted value is removed from the output. For a more objective assessment of the prospects of the ANN application, the results of the forecast are presented in comparison with the results obtained in predicting the method of exponential smoothing.Results. When predicting the volumes of freight transportation by rail, satisfactory indicators of the verification of forecasting by both the method of exponential smoothing and ANN had been obtained, although the neural network

  20. Improved Neural Networks with Random Weights for Short-Term Load Forecasting

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lang, Kun; Zhang, Mingyuan; Yuan, Yongbo

    2015-01-01

    An effective forecasting model for short-term load plays a significant role in promoting the management efficiency of an electric power system. This paper proposes a new forecasting model based on the improved neural networks with random weights (INNRW). The key is to introduce a weighting technique to the inputs of the model and use a novel neural network to forecast the daily maximum load. Eight factors are selected as the inputs. A mutual information weighting algorithm is then used to allocate different weights to the inputs. The neural networks with random weights and kernels (KNNRW) is applied to approximate the nonlinear function between the selected inputs and the daily maximum load due to the fast learning speed and good generalization performance. In the application of the daily load in Dalian, the result of the proposed INNRW is compared with several previously developed forecasting models. The simulation experiment shows that the proposed model performs the best overall in short-term load forecasting. PMID:26629825

  1. Application of BP Neural Network Algorithm in Traditional Hydrological Model for Flood Forecasting

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jianjin Wang

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Flooding contributes to tremendous hazards every year; more accurate forecasting may significantly mitigate the damages and loss caused by flood disasters. Current hydrological models are either purely knowledge-based or data-driven. A combination of data-driven method (artificial neural networks in this paper and knowledge-based method (traditional hydrological model may booster simulation accuracy. In this study, we proposed a new back-propagation (BP neural network algorithm and applied it in the semi-distributed Xinanjiang (XAJ model. The improved hydrological model is capable of updating the flow forecasting error without losing the leading time. The proposed method was tested in a real case study for both single period corrections and real-time corrections. The results reveal that the proposed method could significantly increase the accuracy of flood forecasting and indicate that the global correction effect is superior to the second-order autoregressive correction method in real-time correction.

  2. Modeling and computing of stock index forecasting based on neural network and Markov chain.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dai, Yonghui; Han, Dongmei; Dai, Weihui

    2014-01-01

    The stock index reflects the fluctuation of the stock market. For a long time, there have been a lot of researches on the forecast of stock index. However, the traditional method is limited to achieving an ideal precision in the dynamic market due to the influences of many factors such as the economic situation, policy changes, and emergency events. Therefore, the approach based on adaptive modeling and conditional probability transfer causes the new attention of researchers. This paper presents a new forecast method by the combination of improved back-propagation (BP) neural network and Markov chain, as well as its modeling and computing technology. This method includes initial forecasting by improved BP neural network, division of Markov state region, computing of the state transition probability matrix, and the prediction adjustment. Results of the empirical study show that this method can achieve high accuracy in the stock index prediction, and it could provide a good reference for the investment in stock market.

  3. Short-Term Load Forecasting for Microgrids Based on Artificial Neural Networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Antonio J. Sanchez-Esguevillas

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available Electricity is indispensable and of strategic importance to national economies. Consequently, electric utilities make an effort to balance power generation and demand in order to offer a good service at a competitive price. For this purpose, these utilities need electric load forecasts to be as accurate as possible. However, electric load depends on many factors (day of the week, month of the year, etc., which makes load forecasting quite a complex process requiring something other than statistical methods. This study presents an electric load forecast architectural model based on an Artificial Neural Network (ANN that performs Short-Term Load Forecasting (STLF. In this study, we present the excellent results obtained, and highlight the simplicity of the proposed model. Load forecasting was performed in a geographic location of the size of a potential microgrid, as microgrids appear to be the future of electric power supply.

  4. Explicitly integrating parameter, input, and structure uncertainties into Bayesian Neural Networks for probabilistic hydrologic forecasting

    KAUST Repository

    Zhang, Xuesong

    2011-11-01

    Estimating uncertainty of hydrologic forecasting is valuable to water resources and other relevant decision making processes. Recently, Bayesian Neural Networks (BNNs) have been proved powerful tools for quantifying uncertainty of streamflow forecasting. In this study, we propose a Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) framework (BNN-PIS) to incorporate the uncertainties associated with parameters, inputs, and structures into BNNs. This framework allows the structure of the neural networks to change by removing or adding connections between neurons and enables scaling of input data by using rainfall multipliers. The results show that the new BNNs outperform BNNs that only consider uncertainties associated with parameters and model structures. Critical evaluation of posterior distribution of neural network weights, number of effective connections, rainfall multipliers, and hyper-parameters shows that the assumptions held in our BNNs are not well supported. Further understanding of characteristics of and interactions among different uncertainty sources is expected to enhance the application of neural networks for uncertainty analysis of hydrologic forecasting. © 2011 Elsevier B.V.

  5. Forecasting the portuguese stock market time series by using artificial neural networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Isfan, Monica; Menezes, Rui; Mendes, Diana A.

    2010-04-01

    In this paper, we show that neural networks can be used to uncover the non-linearity that exists in the financial data. First, we follow a traditional approach by analysing the deterministic/stochastic characteristics of the Portuguese stock market data and some typical features are studied, like the Hurst exponents, among others. We also simulate a BDS test to investigate nonlinearities and the results are as expected: the financial time series do not exhibit linear dependence. Secondly, we trained four types of neural networks for the stock markets and used the models to make forecasts. The artificial neural networks were obtained using a three-layer feed-forward topology and the back-propagation learning algorithm. The quite large number of parameters that must be selected to develop a neural network forecasting model involves some trial and as a consequence the error is not small enough. In order to improve this we use a nonlinear optimization algorithm to minimize the error. Finally, the output of the 4 models is quite similar, leading to a qualitative forecast that we compare with the results of the application of k-nearest-neighbor for the same time series.

  6. Forecasting the Short-Term Passenger Flow on High-Speed Railway with Neural Networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mei-Quan Xie

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Short-term passenger flow forecasting is an important component of transportation systems. The forecasting result can be applied to support transportation system operation and management such as operation planning and revenue management. In this paper, a divide-and-conquer method based on neural network and origin-destination (OD matrix estimation is developed to forecast the short-term passenger flow in high-speed railway system. There are three steps in the forecasting method. Firstly, the numbers of passengers who arrive at each station or depart from each station are obtained from historical passenger flow data, which are OD matrices in this paper. Secondly, short-term passenger flow forecasting of the numbers of passengers who arrive at each station or depart from each station based on neural network is realized. At last, the OD matrices in short-term time are obtained with an OD matrix estimation method. The experimental results indicate that the proposed divide-and-conquer method performs well in forecasting the short-term passenger flow on high-speed railway.

  7. A study on the forecasting of daily stream flow using the multilayer neural networks model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kim, Sung-Won [Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO(United States)

    2000-10-31

    In this study, Neural Networks models were used to forecast daily stream flow at Jindong station of the Nakdong River basin. Neural Networks models consist of CASE 1(5-5-1) and CASE 2(5-5-5-1). The criteria which separates two models is the number of hidden layers. Each model has Fletcher-Reeves Conjugate Gradient BackPropagation(FR-CGBP) and Scaled Conjugate Gradient BackPropagation(SCGBP) algorithms, which are better than original BackPropagation(BP) in convergence of global error and training tolerance. The data which are available for model training and validation were composed of wet, average, dry, wet+average, wet+dry, average+dry and wet+average+dry year respectively. During model training, the optimal connection weights and biases were determined using each data set and the daily stream flow was calculated at the same time. Except for wet+dry year, the results of training were good conditions by statistical analysis of forecast errors. And, model validation was carried out using the connection weights and biases which were calculated from model training. The results of validation were satisfactory like those of training. Daily stream flow forecasting using Neural Networks models were compared with those forecasted by Multiple Regression Analysis Model(MRAM). Neural Networks models were displayed slightly better results than MRAM in this study. Thus, Neural Networks models have much advantage to provide a more systematic approach, reduce model parameters, and shorten the time spent in the model development. (author). 22 refs., 9 tabs., 7 figs.

  8. Electric load forecasting for northern Vietnam, using an artificial neural network

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bhattacharyya, S.C. [Asian Institute of Technology, Pathum Thani (Thailand); Thanh, L.T. [Power Company No. 1 (Viet Nam)

    2003-06-01

    This paper employs a feed-forward neural network with a back-propagation algorithm for the short-term electric load forecasting of daily peak (valley) loads and hourly loads in the northern areas of Vietnam. A large set of data on peak loads, valley loads, hourly loads and temperatures was used to train and calibrate the artificial neural network (ANN). The calibrated network was used for load forecasting. The mean percentage errors for the peak load, valley load, one-hour-ahead hourly load and 24-hour-ahead hourly load were -1.47%, -3.29%, -2.64% and -4.39%, respectively. These results compare well with similar studies. (author)

  9. A Comparative Study of Neural Networks and ANFIS for Forecasting Attendance Rate of Soccer Games

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mehmet Şahin

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available The main purpose of this study was to develop and apply a neural network (NN approach and an adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS model for forecasting the attendance rates at soccer games. The models were designed based on the characteristics of the problem. Past real data was used. Training data was used for training the models, and the testing data was used for evaluating the performance of the forecasting models. The obtained forecasting results were compared to the actual data and to each other. To evaluate the performance of the models, two statistical indicators, Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD and mean absolute percent error (MAPE, were used. Based on the results, the proposed neural network approach and the ANFIS model were shown to be effective in forecasting attendance at soccer games. The neural network approach performed better than the ANFIS model. The main contribution of this study is to introduce two effective techniques for estimating attendance at sports games. This is the first attempt to use an ANFIS model for that purpose.

  10. Modeling Markov switching ARMA-GARCH neural networks models and an application to forecasting stock returns.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bildirici, Melike; Ersin, Özgür

    2014-01-01

    The study has two aims. The first aim is to propose a family of nonlinear GARCH models that incorporate fractional integration and asymmetric power properties to MS-GARCH processes. The second purpose of the study is to augment the MS-GARCH type models with artificial neural networks to benefit from the universal approximation properties to achieve improved forecasting accuracy. Therefore, the proposed Markov-switching MS-ARMA-FIGARCH, APGARCH, and FIAPGARCH processes are further augmented with MLP, Recurrent NN, and Hybrid NN type neural networks. The MS-ARMA-GARCH family and MS-ARMA-GARCH-NN family are utilized for modeling the daily stock returns in an emerging market, the Istanbul Stock Index (ISE100). Forecast accuracy is evaluated in terms of MAE, MSE, and RMSE error criteria and Diebold-Mariano equal forecast accuracy tests. The results suggest that the fractionally integrated and asymmetric power counterparts of Gray's MS-GARCH model provided promising results, while the best results are obtained for their neural network based counterparts. Further, among the models analyzed, the models based on the Hybrid-MLP and Recurrent-NN, the MS-ARMA-FIAPGARCH-HybridMLP, and MS-ARMA-FIAPGARCH-RNN provided the best forecast performances over the baseline single regime GARCH models and further, over the Gray's MS-GARCH model. Therefore, the models are promising for various economic applications.

  11. Modeling Markov Switching ARMA-GARCH Neural Networks Models and an Application to Forecasting Stock Returns

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Melike Bildirici

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The study has two aims. The first aim is to propose a family of nonlinear GARCH models that incorporate fractional integration and asymmetric power properties to MS-GARCH processes. The second purpose of the study is to augment the MS-GARCH type models with artificial neural networks to benefit from the universal approximation properties to achieve improved forecasting accuracy. Therefore, the proposed Markov-switching MS-ARMA-FIGARCH, APGARCH, and FIAPGARCH processes are further augmented with MLP, Recurrent NN, and Hybrid NN type neural networks. The MS-ARMA-GARCH family and MS-ARMA-GARCH-NN family are utilized for modeling the daily stock returns in an emerging market, the Istanbul Stock Index (ISE100. Forecast accuracy is evaluated in terms of MAE, MSE, and RMSE error criteria and Diebold-Mariano equal forecast accuracy tests. The results suggest that the fractionally integrated and asymmetric power counterparts of Gray’s MS-GARCH model provided promising results, while the best results are obtained for their neural network based counterparts. Further, among the models analyzed, the models based on the Hybrid-MLP and Recurrent-NN, the MS-ARMA-FIAPGARCH-HybridMLP, and MS-ARMA-FIAPGARCH-RNN provided the best forecast performances over the baseline single regime GARCH models and further, over the Gray’s MS-GARCH model. Therefore, the models are promising for various economic applications.

  12. DO DYNAMIC NEURAL NETWORKS STAND A BETTER CHANCE IN FRACTIONALLY INTEGRATED PROCESS FORECASTING?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Majid Delavari

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available The main purpose of the present study was to investigate the capabilities of two generations of models such as those based on dynamic neural network (e.g., Nonlinear Neural network Auto Regressive or NNAR model and a regressive (Auto Regressive Fractionally Integrated Moving Average model which is based on Fractional Integration Approach in forecasting daily data related to the return index of Tehran Stock Exchange (TSE. In order to compare these models under similar conditions, Mean Square Error (MSE and also Root Mean Square Error (RMSE were selected as criteria for the models’ simulated out-of-sample forecasting performance. Besides, fractal markets hypothesis was examined and according to the findings, fractal structure was confirmed to exist in the time series under investigation. Another finding of the study was that dynamic artificial neural network model had the best performance in out-of-sample forecasting based on the criteria introduced for calculating forecasting error in comparison with the ARFIMA model.

  13. Daily Crude Oil Price Forecasting Using Hybridizing Wavelet and Artificial Neural Network Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ani Shabri

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available A new method based on integrating discrete wavelet transform and artificial neural networks (WANN model for daily crude oil price forecasting is proposed. The discrete Mallat wavelet transform is used to decompose the crude price series into one approximation series and some details series (DS. The new series obtained by adding the effective one approximation series and DS component is then used as input into the ANN model to forecast crude oil price. The relative performance of WANN model was compared to regular ANN model for crude oil forecasting at lead times of 1 day for two main crude oil price series, West Texas Intermediate (WTI and Brent crude oil spot prices. In both cases, WANN model was found to provide more accurate crude oil prices forecasts than individual ANN model.

  14. Skilful rainfall forecasts from artificial neural networks with long duration series and single-month optimization

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abbot, John; Marohasy, Jennifer

    2017-11-01

    General circulation models, which forecast by first modelling actual conditions in the atmosphere and ocean, are used extensively for monthly rainfall forecasting. We show how more skilful monthly and seasonal rainfall forecasts can be achieved through the mining of historical climate data using artificial neural networks (ANNs). This technique is demonstrated for two agricultural regions of Australia: the wheat belt of Western Australia and the sugar growing region of coastal Queensland. The most skilful monthly rainfall forecasts measured in terms of Ideal Point Error (IPE), and a score relative to climatology, are consistently achieved through the use of ANNs optimized for each month individually, and also by choosing to input longer historical series of climate indices. Using the longer series restricts the number of climate indices that can be used.

  15. Short-term load forecasting using neural network for future smart grid application

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zennamo, Joseph Anthony, III

    Short-term load forecasting of power system has been a classic problem for a long time. Not merely it has been researched extensively and intensively, but also a variety of forecasting methods has been raised. This thesis outlines some aspects and functions of smart meter. It also presents different policies and current statuses as well as future projects and objectives of SG development in several countries. Then the thesis compares main aspects about latest products of smart meter from different companies. Lastly, three types of prediction models are established in MATLAB to emulate the functions of smart grid in the short-term load forecasting, and then their results are compared and analyzed in terms of accuracy. For this thesis, more variables such as dew point temperature are used in the Neural Network model to achieve more accuracy for better short-term load forecasting results.

  16. Artificial Neural Network Based Model for Forecasting of Inflation in India

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gour Sundar Mitra Thakur

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Inflation can be attributed to both microeconomic and macroeconomic factors which influence the stability of the economy of any nation. With the raising of recession at the end of the year 2008, world communities started paying much contemplation on inflation and put enormous hard work to predict it accurately. Prediction of inflation is not a simple task. Moreover, the behavior of inflation is so complex and uncertain that both economists and statisticians have been striving to model and forecast inflation in an accurate way. As a result, many researchers have proposed inflation forecasting models based on different methods; however the accuracy is always being a major constraint. In this paper, we have analyzed the historical monthly economic data of India between January 2000 and December 2012 and constructed an inflation forecasting model based on feed forward back propagation neural network. Initially some critical factors that can considerably influence the inflation of India have been identified, then an efficient artificial neural network (ANN model has been proposed to forecast the inflation. Accuracy of the model is proved to be satisfactory when compared with the forecasting of some well-known agencies.

  17. Forecasting of Congestion in Traffic Neural Network Modelling Using Duffing Holmes Oscillator

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mrgole, Anamarija L.; Čelan, Marko; Mesarec, Beno

    2017-10-01

    Forecasting of congestion in traffic with Neural Network is an innovative and new process of identification and detection of chaotic features in time series analysis. With the use of Duffing Holmes Oscillator, we estimate the emergence of traffic flow congestion when the traffic load on a specific section of the road and in a specific time period is close to exceeding the capacity of the road infrastructure. The orientated model is validated in six locations with a specific requirement. The paper points out the issue of importance of traffic flow forecasting and simulations for preventing or rerouting possible short term traffic flow congestions.

  18. Comparing the Selected Transfer Functions and Local Optimization Methods for Neural Network Flood Runoff Forecast

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Petr Maca

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The presented paper aims to analyze the influence of the selection of transfer function and training algorithms on neural network flood runoff forecast. Nine of the most significant flood events, caused by the extreme rainfall, were selected from 10 years of measurement on small headwater catchment in the Czech Republic, and flood runoff forecast was investigated using the extensive set of multilayer perceptrons with one hidden layer of neurons. The analyzed artificial neural network models with 11 different activation functions in hidden layer were trained using 7 local optimization algorithms. The results show that the Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm was superior compared to the remaining tested local optimization methods. When comparing the 11 nonlinear transfer functions, used in hidden layer neurons, the RootSig function was superior compared to the rest of analyzed activation functions.

  19. Neural networks and forecasting stock price movements-accounting approach: Empirical evidence from Iran

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hossein Naderi

    2012-08-01

    Full Text Available Stock market prediction is one of the most important interesting areas of research in business. Stock markets prediction is normally assumed as tedious task since there are many factors influencing the market. The primary objective of this paper is to forecast trend closing price movement of Tehran Stock Exchange (TSE using financial accounting ratios from year 2003 to year 2008. The proposed study of this paper uses two approaches namely Artificial Neural Networks and multi-layer perceptron. Independent variables are accounting ratios and dependent variable of stock price , so the latter was gathered for the industry of Motor Vehicles and Auto Parts. The results of this study show that neural networks models are useful tools in forecasting stock price movements in emerging markets but multi-layer perception provides better results in term of lowering error terms.

  20. Volatility Degree Forecasting of Stock Market by Stochastic Time Strength Neural Network

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Haiyan Mo

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available In view of the applications of artificial neural networks in economic and financial forecasting, a stochastic time strength function is introduced in the backpropagation neural network model to predict the fluctuations of stock price changes. In this model, stochastic time strength function gives a weight for each historical datum and makes the model have the effect of random movement, and then we investigate and forecast the behavior of volatility degrees of returns for the Chinese stock market indexes and some global market indexes. The empirical research is performed in testing the prediction effect of SSE, SZSE, HSI, DJIA, IXIC, and S&P 500 with different selected volatility degrees in the established model.

  1. Conditional time series forecasting with convolutional neural networks

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    A. Borovykh (Anastasia); S.M. Bohte (Sander); C.W. Oosterlee (Cornelis)

    2017-01-01

    textabstractForecasting financial time series using past observations has been a significant topic of interest. While temporal relationships in the data exist, they are difficult to analyze and predict accurately due to the non-linear trends and noise present in the series. We propose to learn these

  2. Artificial neural networks in forecasting tourists’ flow, an intelligent technique to help the economic development of tourism in Albania.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dezdemona Gjylapi

    2014-07-01

    The aim of this paper is to present the neural network usage in the tourists’ number forecasting and to determine the trends of the future tourist inflow, thus helping tourism management agencies in making scientific based financial decisions.

  3. Recurrent networks for wave forecasting

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Mandal, S.; Prabaharan, N.

    , merchant vessel routing, nearshore construction, etc. more efficiently and safely. This paper presents an application of the Artificial Neural Network, namely Backpropagation Recurrent Neural Network (BRNN) with rprop update algorithm for wave forecasting...

  4. Recurrent Neural Network For Forecasting Time Series With Long Memory Pattern

    Science.gov (United States)

    Walid; Alamsyah

    2017-04-01

    Recurrent Neural Network as one of the hybrid models are often used to predict and estimate the issues related to electricity, can be used to describe the cause of the swelling of electrical load which experienced by PLN. In this research will be developed RNN forecasting procedures at the time series with long memory patterns. Considering the application is the national electrical load which of course has a different trend with the condition of the electrical load in any country. This research produces the algorithm of time series forecasting which has long memory pattern using E-RNN after this referred to the algorithm of integrated fractional recurrent neural networks (FIRNN).The prediction results of long memory time series using models Fractional Integrated Recurrent Neural Network (FIRNN) showed that the model with the selection of data difference in the range of [-1,1] and the model of Fractional Integrated Recurrent Neural Network (FIRNN) (24,6,1) provides the smallest MSE value, which is 0.00149684.

  5. Ensemble Nonlinear Autoregressive Exogenous Artificial Neural Networks for Short-Term Wind Speed and Power Forecasting.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Men, Zhongxian; Yee, Eugene; Lien, Fue-Sang; Yang, Zhiling; Liu, Yongqian

    2014-01-01

    Short-term wind speed and wind power forecasts (for a 72 h period) are obtained using a nonlinear autoregressive exogenous artificial neural network (ANN) methodology which incorporates either numerical weather prediction or high-resolution computational fluid dynamics wind field information as an exogenous input. An ensemble approach is used to combine the predictions from many candidate ANNs in order to provide improved forecasts for wind speed and power, along with the associated uncertainties in these forecasts. More specifically, the ensemble ANN is used to quantify the uncertainties arising from the network weight initialization and from the unknown structure of the ANN. All members forming the ensemble of neural networks were trained using an efficient particle swarm optimization algorithm. The results of the proposed methodology are validated using wind speed and wind power data obtained from an operational wind farm located in Northern China. The assessment demonstrates that this methodology for wind speed and power forecasting generally provides an improvement in predictive skills when compared to the practice of using an "optimal" weight vector from a single ANN while providing additional information in the form of prediction uncertainty bounds.

  6. Ensemble Nonlinear Autoregressive Exogenous Artificial Neural Networks for Short-Term Wind Speed and Power Forecasting

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lien, Fue-Sang; Yang, Zhiling; Liu, Yongqian

    2014-01-01

    Short-term wind speed and wind power forecasts (for a 72 h period) are obtained using a nonlinear autoregressive exogenous artificial neural network (ANN) methodology which incorporates either numerical weather prediction or high-resolution computational fluid dynamics wind field information as an exogenous input. An ensemble approach is used to combine the predictions from many candidate ANNs in order to provide improved forecasts for wind speed and power, along with the associated uncertainties in these forecasts. More specifically, the ensemble ANN is used to quantify the uncertainties arising from the network weight initialization and from the unknown structure of the ANN. All members forming the ensemble of neural networks were trained using an efficient particle swarm optimization algorithm. The results of the proposed methodology are validated using wind speed and wind power data obtained from an operational wind farm located in Northern China. The assessment demonstrates that this methodology for wind speed and power forecasting generally provides an improvement in predictive skills when compared to the practice of using an “optimal” weight vector from a single ANN while providing additional information in the form of prediction uncertainty bounds. PMID:27382627

  7. Analysis of recurrent neural networks for short-term energy load forecasting

    Science.gov (United States)

    Di Persio, Luca; Honchar, Oleksandr

    2017-11-01

    Short-term forecasts have recently gained an increasing attention because of the rise of competitive electricity markets. In fact, short-terms forecast of possible future loads turn out to be fundamental to build efficient energy management strategies as well as to avoid energy wastage. Such type of challenges are difficult to tackle both from a theoretical and applied point of view. Latter tasks require sophisticated methods to manage multidimensional time series related to stochastic phenomena which are often highly interconnected. In the present work we first review novel approaches to energy load forecasting based on recurrent neural network, focusing our attention on long/short term memory architectures (LSTMs). Such type of artificial neural networks have been widely applied to problems dealing with sequential data such it happens, e.g., in socio-economics settings, for text recognition purposes, concerning video signals, etc., always showing their effectiveness to model complex temporal data. Moreover, we consider different novel variations of basic LSTMs, such as sequence-to-sequence approach and bidirectional LSTMs, aiming at providing effective models for energy load data. Last but not least, we test all the described algorithms on real energy load data showing not only that deep recurrent networks can be successfully applied to energy load forecasting, but also that this approach can be extended to other problems based on time series prediction.

  8. SHORT-TERM SOLAR RADIATION FORECASTING BY USING AN ITERATIVE COMBINATION OF WAVELET ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORKS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Julio Cesar Royer

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available The information provided by accurate forecasts of solar energy time series are considered essential for performing an appropriate prediction of the electrical power that will be available in an electric system, as pointed out in Zhou et al. (2011. However, since the underlying data are highly non-stationary, it follows that to produce their accurate predictions is a very difficult assignment. In order to accomplish it, this paper proposes an iterative Combination of Wavelet Artificial Neural Networks (CWANN which is aimed to produce short-term solar radiation time series forecasting. Basically, the CWANN method can be split into three stages: at first one, a decomposition of level p, defined in terms of a wavelet basis, of a given solar radiation time series is performed, generating r+1 Wavelet Components (WC; at second one, these r+1 WCs are individually modeled by the k different ANNs, where k>5, and the 5 best forecasts of each WC are combined by means of another ANN, producing the combined forecasts of WC; and, at third one, the combined forecasts WC are simply added, generating the forecasts of the underlying solar radiation data. An iterative algorithm is proposed for iteratively searching for the optimal values for the CWANN parameters, as we will see. In order to evaluate it, ten real solar radiation time series of Brazilian system were modeled here. In all statistical results, the CWANN method has achieved remarkable greater forecasting performances when compared with a traditional ANN (described in Section 2.1.

  9. Forecasting of Chinese Primary Energy Consumption in 2021 with GRU Artificial Neural Network

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bingchun Liu

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available The forecasting of energy consumption in China is a key requirement for achieving national energy security and energy planning. In this study, multi-variable linear regression (MLR and support vector regression (SVR were utilized with a gated recurrent unit (GRU artificial neural network of Chinese energy to establish a forecasting model. The derived model was validated through four economic variables; the gross domestic product (GDP, population, imports, and exports. The performance of various forecasting models was assessed via MAPE and RMSE, and three scenarios were configured based on different sources of variable data. In predicting Chinese energy consumption from 2015 to 2021, results from the established GRU model of the highest predictive accuracy showed that Chinese energy consumption would be likely to fluctuate from 2954.04 Mtoe to 5618.67 Mtoe in 2021.

  10. Neural network based load and price forecasting and confidence interval estimation in deregulated power markets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Li

    With the deregulation of the electric power market in New England, an independent system operator (ISO) has been separated from the New England Power Pool (NEPOOL). The ISO provides a regional spot market, with bids on various electricity-related products and services submitted by utilities and independent power producers. A utility can bid on the spot market and buy or sell electricity via bilateral transactions. Good estimation of market clearing prices (MCP) will help utilities and independent power producers determine bidding and transaction strategies with low risks, and this is crucial for utilities to compete in the deregulated environment. MCP prediction, however, is difficult since bidding strategies used by participants are complicated and MCP is a non-stationary process. The main objective of this research is to provide efficient short-term load and MCP forecasting and corresponding confidence interval estimation methodologies. In this research, the complexity of load and MCP with other factors is investigated, and neural networks are used to model the complex relationship between input and output. With improved learning algorithm and on-line update features for load forecasting, a neural network based load forecaster was developed, and has been in daily industry use since summer 1998 with good performance. MCP is volatile because of the complexity of market behaviors. In practice, neural network based MCP predictors usually have a cascaded structure, as several key input factors need to be estimated first. In this research, the uncertainties involved in a cascaded neural network structure for MCP prediction are analyzed, and prediction distribution under the Bayesian framework is developed. A fast algorithm to evaluate the confidence intervals by using the memoryless Quasi-Newton method is also developed. The traditional back-propagation algorithm for neural network learning needs to be improved since MCP is a non-stationary process. The extended Kalman

  11. APLIKASI MODEL ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORKS UNTUK STOCK FORECASTING DI PASAR MODAL INDONESIA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christian Herdinata

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available This research showed the applicat ion of model Art if icial Neural Networks (ANN orJaringan Syaraf Tiruan (JST at the f ield of monetary science, especially for the applicat ion off inancial forecast ing. ANN or JST was a new alternat ive for the applicat ion of f inancialforecast ing.The purpose of this research was to know whether the stock index instantaneouslyand fully ref lect historical informat ion, in Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX. The research usedcomparison between return of technical t rading rule based Art if icial Neural Networks (ANNmodel and return of buy & hold st rategy. The result showed that the weakness form ofef f icient market hypothesis was rejected in the Indonesian capital market . Expectat ion ofthis research was giving informat ion and securing the market perpet rators that st ill enabledto get abnormal of return by doing commerce in chnical through forecast ing of model Art ificial Neural Networks (ANN or Jaringan Syaraf Tiruan ( JST.

  12. Forecasting influenza-like illness dynamics for military populations using neural networks and social media.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Svitlana Volkova

    Full Text Available This work is the first to take advantage of recurrent neural networks to predict influenza-like illness (ILI dynamics from various linguistic signals extracted from social media data. Unlike other approaches that rely on timeseries analysis of historical ILI data and the state-of-the-art machine learning models, we build and evaluate the predictive power of neural network architectures based on Long Short Term Memory (LSTMs units capable of nowcasting (predicting in "real-time" and forecasting (predicting the future ILI dynamics in the 2011 - 2014 influenza seasons. To build our models we integrate information people post in social media e.g., topics, embeddings, word ngrams, stylistic patterns, and communication behavior using hashtags and mentions. We then quantitatively evaluate the predictive power of different social media signals and contrast the performance of the-state-of-the-art regression models with neural networks using a diverse set of evaluation metrics. Finally, we combine ILI and social media signals to build a joint neural network model for ILI dynamics prediction. Unlike the majority of the existing work, we specifically focus on developing models for local rather than national ILI surveillance, specifically for military rather than general populations in 26 U.S. and six international locations., and analyze how model performance depends on the amount of social media data available per location. Our approach demonstrates several advantages: (a Neural network architectures that rely on LSTM units trained on social media data yield the best performance compared to previously used regression models. (b Previously under-explored language and communication behavior features are more predictive of ILI dynamics than stylistic and topic signals expressed in social media. (c Neural network models learned exclusively from social media signals yield comparable or better performance to the models learned from ILI historical data, thus

  13. Forecasting influenza-like illness dynamics for military populations using neural networks and social media.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Volkova, Svitlana; Ayton, Ellyn; Porterfield, Katherine; Corley, Courtney D

    2017-01-01

    This work is the first to take advantage of recurrent neural networks to predict influenza-like illness (ILI) dynamics from various linguistic signals extracted from social media data. Unlike other approaches that rely on timeseries analysis of historical ILI data and the state-of-the-art machine learning models, we build and evaluate the predictive power of neural network architectures based on Long Short Term Memory (LSTMs) units capable of nowcasting (predicting in "real-time") and forecasting (predicting the future) ILI dynamics in the 2011 - 2014 influenza seasons. To build our models we integrate information people post in social media e.g., topics, embeddings, word ngrams, stylistic patterns, and communication behavior using hashtags and mentions. We then quantitatively evaluate the predictive power of different social media signals and contrast the performance of the-state-of-the-art regression models with neural networks using a diverse set of evaluation metrics. Finally, we combine ILI and social media signals to build a joint neural network model for ILI dynamics prediction. Unlike the majority of the existing work, we specifically focus on developing models for local rather than national ILI surveillance, specifically for military rather than general populations in 26 U.S. and six international locations., and analyze how model performance depends on the amount of social media data available per location. Our approach demonstrates several advantages: (a) Neural network architectures that rely on LSTM units trained on social media data yield the best performance compared to previously used regression models. (b) Previously under-explored language and communication behavior features are more predictive of ILI dynamics than stylistic and topic signals expressed in social media. (c) Neural network models learned exclusively from social media signals yield comparable or better performance to the models learned from ILI historical data, thus, signals from

  14. CITY TRANSPORT SYSTEM ECOLOGICAL STATE FORECASTING WITH THE USE OF NEURAL NETWORKS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrey Lyamzin

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: The purpose of this work is to develop an effective model for city transport system ecological state assessment using neural networks general concept. Methods: The proposed model is based on two neural networks work, taking into account the traffic density effect and the transit capacity level on urban areas. Results: Based on the synthesis of the fuzzy sets theory and neural networks basic principles, the city transport system ecological state assessing model is developed. The graphical representation of the model is given. A forecast reliability high degree is provided even at low learning rates and high dynamics of changing statistical data in the city transit traffic conditions. Conclusions: The use of fuzzy neural networks makes it possible to state a complete correspondence between fuzzy inference procedure mathematical representation and the urban transport system structure. The proposed model allows to formulate well-defined environmental guidelines when making decisions in the transit traffic field, taking into account the interests of enterprises, transport and the urban population, with the subsequent distribution of traffic flows in time and geographical space of the city industrial areas.

  15. Forecasting financial time series using a low complexity recurrent neural network and evolutionary learning approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ajit Kumar Rout

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available The paper presents a low complexity recurrent Functional Link Artificial Neural Network for predicting the financial time series data like the stock market indices over a time frame varying from 1 day ahead to 1 month ahead. Although different types of basis functions have been used for low complexity neural networks earlier for stock market prediction, a comparative study is needed to choose the optimal combinations of these for a reasonably accurate forecast. Further several evolutionary learning methods like the Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO and modified version of its new variant (HMRPSO, and the Differential Evolution (DE are adopted here to find the optimal weights for the recurrent computationally efficient functional link neural network (RCEFLANN using a combination of linear and hyperbolic tangent basis functions. The performance of the recurrent computationally efficient FLANN model is compared with that of low complexity neural networks using the Trigonometric, Chebyshev, Laguerre, Legendre, and tangent hyperbolic basis functions in predicting stock prices of Bombay Stock Exchange data and Standard & Poor’s 500 data sets using different evolutionary methods and has been presented in this paper and the results clearly reveal that the recurrent FLANN model trained with the DE outperforms all other FLANN models similarly trained.

  16. Hybrid Power Forecasting Model for Photovoltaic Plants Based on Neural Network with Air Quality Index

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Idris Khan

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available High concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere has increased dependency on photovoltaic (PV power, but its random nature poses a challenge for system operators to precisely predict and forecast PV power. The conventional forecasting methods were accurate for clean weather. But when the PV plants worked under heavy haze, the radiation is negatively impacted and thus reducing PV power; therefore, to deal with haze weather, Air Quality Index (AQI is introduced as a parameter to predict PV power. AQI, which is an indication of how polluted the air is, has been known to have a strong correlation with power generated by the PV panels. In this paper, a hybrid method based on the model of conventional back propagation (BP neural network for clear weather and BP AQI model for haze weather is used to forecast PV power with conventional parameters like temperature, wind speed, humidity, solar radiation, and an extra parameter of AQI as input. The results show that the proposed method has less error under haze condition as compared to conventional model of neural network.

  17. Modeling and Computing of Stock Index Forecasting Based on Neural Network and Markov Chain

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yonghui Dai

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The stock index reflects the fluctuation of the stock market. For a long time, there have been a lot of researches on the forecast of stock index. However, the traditional method is limited to achieving an ideal precision in the dynamic market due to the influences of many factors such as the economic situation, policy changes, and emergency events. Therefore, the approach based on adaptive modeling and conditional probability transfer causes the new attention of researchers. This paper presents a new forecast method by the combination of improved back-propagation (BP neural network and Markov chain, as well as its modeling and computing technology. This method includes initial forecasting by improved BP neural network, division of Markov state region, computing of the state transition probability matrix, and the prediction adjustment. Results of the empirical study show that this method can achieve high accuracy in the stock index prediction, and it could provide a good reference for the investment in stock market.

  18. Forecast and restoration of geomagnetic activity indices by using the software-computational neural network complex

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barkhatov, Nikolay; Revunov, Sergey

    2010-05-01

    It is known that currently used indices of geomagnetic activity to some extent reflect the physical processes occurring in the interaction of the perturbed solar wind with Earth's magnetosphere. Therefore, they are connected to each other and with the parameters of near-Earth space. The establishment of such nonlinear connections is interest. For such purposes when the physical problem is complex or has many parameters the technology of artificial neural networks is applied. Such approach for development of the automated forecast and restoration method of geomagnetic activity indices with the establishment of creative software-computational neural network complex is used. Each neural network experiments were carried out at this complex aims to search for a specific nonlinear relation between the analyzed indices and parameters. At the core of the algorithm work program a complex scheme of the functioning of artificial neural networks (ANN) of different types is contained: back propagation Elman network, feed forward network, fuzzy logic network and Kohonen layer classification network. Tools of the main window of the complex (the application) the settings used by neural networks allow you to change: the number of hidden layers, the number of neurons in the layer, the input and target data, the number of cycles of training. Process and the quality of training the ANN is a dynamic plot of changing training error. Plot of comparison of network response with the test sequence is result of the network training. The last-trained neural network with established nonlinear connection for repeated numerical experiments can be run. At the same time additional training is not executed and the previously trained network as a filter input parameters get through and output parameters with the test event are compared. At statement of the large number of different experiments provided the ability to run the program in a "batch" mode is stipulated. For this purpose the user a

  19. GARCH based artificial neural networks in forecasting conditional variance of stock returns

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Josip Arnerić

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available Portfolio managers, option traders and market makers are all interested in volatility forecasting in order to get higher profits or less risky positions. Based on the fact that volatility is time varying in high frequency data and that periods of high volatility tend to cluster, the most popular models in modelling volatility are GARCH type models because they can account excess kurtosis and asymmetric effects of financial time series. A standard GARCH(1,1 model usually indicates high persistence in the conditional variance, which may originate from structural changes. The first objective of this paper is to develop a parsimonious neural networks (NN model, which can capture the nonlinear relationship between past return innovations and conditional variance. Therefore, the goal is to develop a neural network with an appropriate recurrent connection in the context of nonlinear ARMA models, i.e., the Jordan neural network (JNN. The second objective of this paper is to determine if JNN outperforms the standard GARCH model. Out-of-sample forecasts of the JNN and the GARCH model will be compared to determine their predictive accuracy. The data set consists of returns of the CROBEX index daily closing prices obtained from the Zagreb Stock Exchange. The results indicate that the selected JNN(1,1,1 model has superior performances compared to the standard GARCH(1,1 model. The contribution of this paper can be seen in determining the appropriate NN that is comparable to the standard GARCH(1,1 model and its application in forecasting conditional variance of stock returns. Moreover, from the econometric perspective, NN models are used as a semi-parametric method that combines flexibility of nonparametric methods and the interpretability of parameters of parametric methods.

  20. LOAD FORECASTING FOR POWER SYSTEM PLANNING AND OPERATION USING ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORK AT AL BATINAH REGION OMAN

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    HUSSEIN A. ABDULQADER

    2012-08-01

    Full Text Available Load forecasting is essential part for the power system planning and operation. In this paper the modeling and design of artificial neural network for load forecasting is carried out in a particular region of Oman. Neural network approach helps to reduce the problem associated with conventional method and has the advantage of learning directly from the historical data. The neural network here uses data such as past load; weather information like humidity and temperatures. Once the neural network is trained for the past set of data it can give a prediction of future load. This reduces the capital investment reducing the equipments to be installed. The actual data are taken from the Mazoon Electrical Company, Oman. The data of load for the year 2007, 2008 and 2009 are collected for a particular region called Al Batinah in Oman and trained using neural networks to forecast the future. The main objective is to forecast the amount of electricity needed for better load distribution in the areas of this region in Oman. The load forecasting is done for the year 2010 and is validated for the accuracy.

  1. A RBF neural network model with GARCH errors: Application to electricity price forecasting

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Coelho, Leandro dos Santos [Industrial and Systems Engineering Graduate Program, PPGEPS, Pontifical Catholic University of Parana, Imaculada Conceicao, 1155, Zip code 80215-901, Curitiba, Parana (Brazil); Santos, Andre A.P. [Department of Statistics, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid, C/ Madrid, 126, 28903 Getafe, Madrid (Spain)

    2011-01-15

    In this article, we propose a nonlinear forecasting model based on radial basis function neural networks (RBF-NNs) with Gaussian activation functions and robust clustering algorithms to model the conditional mean and a parametric generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) specification to model the conditional volatility. Instead of calibrating the parameters of the RBF-NNs via numerical simulations, we propose an estimation procedure by which the number of basis functions, their corresponding widths and the parameters of the GARCH model are jointly estimated via maximum likelihood along with a genetic algorithm to maximize the likelihood function. We use this model to provide multi-step-ahead point and direction-of-change forecasts of the Spanish electricity pool prices. (author)

  2. ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORK AND WAVELET DECOMPOSITION IN THE FORECAST OF GLOBAL HORIZONTAL SOLAR RADIATION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Luiz Albino Teixeira Júnior

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available This paper proposes a method (denoted by WD-ANN that combines the Artificial Neural Networks (ANN and the Wavelet Decomposition (WD to generate short-term global horizontal solar radiation forecasting, which is an essential information for evaluating the electrical power generated from the conversion of solar energy into electrical energy. The WD-ANN method consists of two basic steps: firstly, it is performed the decomposition of level p of the time series of interest, generating p + 1 wavelet orthonormal components; secondly, the p + 1 wavelet orthonormal components (generated in the step 1 are inserted simultaneously into an ANN in order to generate short-term forecasting. The results showed that the proposed method (WD-ANN improved substantially the performance over the (traditional ANN method.

  3. Forecasting of PT. PLN (Persero) revenue using radial basis function neural network

    Science.gov (United States)

    Junior, Cindy Fajarianti; Suprijadi, Jadi; Franty, Yeny Krista

    2017-03-01

    PT. PLN (Persero) Distribusi Jakarta Raya (Disjaya) is a government-owned company that job is to maintain electricity distribution in Jakarta and Tangerang. The company's revenue can be seen from the pattern of the existing data, constantly increasing every year. This research aims to forecast company's revenue. The forecasting method using Artificial Neural Network method with Radial Basis Function (RBF) model based on historic data from January 2010 to December 2015. Based on the result of this research, the best model obtained (1-6-1) with composition 1 Neuron from input layer, 6 Neuron from hidden layer, and 1 Neuron output layer. The MAPE obtained with this model is 1.32 %.

  4. Short-Term Load Forecasting Using Adaptive Annealing Learning Algorithm Based Reinforcement Neural Network

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cheng-Ming Lee

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available A reinforcement learning algorithm is proposed to improve the accuracy of short-term load forecasting (STLF in this article. The proposed model integrates radial basis function neural network (RBFNN, support vector regression (SVR, and adaptive annealing learning algorithm (AALA. In the proposed methodology, firstly, the initial structure of RBFNN is determined by using an SVR. Then, an AALA with time-varying learning rates is used to optimize the initial parameters of SVR-RBFNN (AALA-SVR-RBFNN. In order to overcome the stagnation for searching optimal RBFNN, a particle swarm optimization (PSO is applied to simultaneously find promising learning rates in AALA. Finally, the short-term load demands are predicted by using the optimal RBFNN. The performance of the proposed methodology is verified on the actual load dataset from the Taiwan Power Company (TPC. Simulation results reveal that the proposed AALA-SVR-RBFNN can achieve a better load forecasting precision compared to various RBFNNs.

  5. Forecasting of groundwater level fluctuations using ensemble hybrid multi-wavelet neural network-based models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barzegar, Rahim; Fijani, Elham; Asghari Moghaddam, Asghar; Tziritis, Evangelos

    2017-12-01

    Accurate prediction of groundwater level (GWL) fluctuations can play an important role in water resources management. The aims of the research are to evaluate the performance of different hybrid wavelet-group method of data handling (WA-GMDH) and wavelet-extreme learning machine (WA-ELM) models and to combine different wavelet based models for forecasting the GWL for one, two and three months step-ahead in the Maragheh-Bonab plain, NW Iran, as a case study. The research used totally 367 monthly GWLs (m) datasets (Sep 1985-Mar 2016) which were split into two subsets; the first 312 datasets (85% of total) were used for model development (training) and the remaining 55 ones (15% of total) for model evaluation (testing). The stepwise selection was used to select appropriate lag times as the inputs of the proposed models. The performance criteria such as coefficient of determination (R2), root mean square error (RMSE) and Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient (NSC) were used for assessing the efficiency of the models. The results indicated that the ELM models outperformed GMDH models. To construct the hybrid wavelet based models, the inputs and outputs were decomposed into sub-time series employing different maximal overlap discrete wavelet transform (MODWT) functions, namely Daubechies, Symlet, Haar and Dmeyer of different orders at level two. Subsequently, these sub-time series were served in the GMDH and ELM models as an input dataset to forecast the multi-step-ahead GWL. The wavelet based models improved the performances of GMDH and ELM models for multi-step-ahead GWL forecasting. To combine the advantages of different wavelets, a least squares boosting (LSBoost) algorithm was applied. The use of the boosting multi-WA-neural network models provided the best performances for GWL forecasts in comparison with single WA-neural network-based models. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  6. Short-term load and wind power forecasting using neural network-based prediction intervals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quan, Hao; Srinivasan, Dipti; Khosravi, Abbas

    2014-02-01

    Electrical power systems are evolving from today's centralized bulk systems to more decentralized systems. Penetrations of renewable energies, such as wind and solar power, significantly increase the level of uncertainty in power systems. Accurate load forecasting becomes more complex, yet more important for management of power systems. Traditional methods for generating point forecasts of load demands cannot properly handle uncertainties in system operations. To quantify potential uncertainties associated with forecasts, this paper implements a neural network (NN)-based method for the construction of prediction intervals (PIs). A newly introduced method, called lower upper bound estimation (LUBE), is applied and extended to develop PIs using NN models. A new problem formulation is proposed, which translates the primary multiobjective problem into a constrained single-objective problem. Compared with the cost function, this new formulation is closer to the primary problem and has fewer parameters. Particle swarm optimization (PSO) integrated with the mutation operator is used to solve the problem. Electrical demands from Singapore and New South Wales (Australia), as well as wind power generation from Capital Wind Farm, are used to validate the PSO-based LUBE method. Comparative results show that the proposed method can construct higher quality PIs for load and wind power generation forecasts in a short time.

  7. Neural networks-based operational prototype for flash flood forecasting: application to Liane flash floods (France

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bertin Dominique

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The Liane River is a small costal river, famous for its floods, which can affect the city of Boulogne-sur-Mer. Due to the complexity of land cover and hydrologic processes, a black-box non-linear modelling was chosen using neural networks. The multilayer perceptron model, known for its property of universal approximation is thus chosen. Four models were designed, each one for one forecasting horizon using rainfall forecasts: 24h, 12h, 6h, 3h. The desired output of the model is original: it represents the maximal value of the water level respectively 24h, 12h, 6h, 3h ahead. Working with best forecasts of rain (the observed ones during the event in the past, on the major flood of the database in test set, the model provides excellent forecasts. Nash criteria calculated for the four lead times are 0.98 (3h, 0.97 (6h, 0.91 (12h, 0.89 (24h. Designed models were thus estimated as efficient enough to be implemented in a specific tool devoted to real time operational use. The software tool is described hereafter: designed in Java, it presents a friendly interface allowing applying various scenarios of future rainfalls, and a graphical visualization of the predicted maximum water levels and their associated real time observed values.

  8. Incorporating Wind Power Forecast Uncertainties Into Stochastic Unit Commitment Using Neural Network-Based Prediction Intervals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quan, Hao; Srinivasan, Dipti; Khosravi, Abbas

    2015-09-01

    Penetration of renewable energy resources, such as wind and solar power, into power systems significantly increases the uncertainties on system operation, stability, and reliability in smart grids. In this paper, the nonparametric neural network-based prediction intervals (PIs) are implemented for forecast uncertainty quantification. Instead of a single level PI, wind power forecast uncertainties are represented in a list of PIs. These PIs are then decomposed into quantiles of wind power. A new scenario generation method is proposed to handle wind power forecast uncertainties. For each hour, an empirical cumulative distribution function (ECDF) is fitted to these quantile points. The Monte Carlo simulation method is used to generate scenarios from the ECDF. Then the wind power scenarios are incorporated into a stochastic security-constrained unit commitment (SCUC) model. The heuristic genetic algorithm is utilized to solve the stochastic SCUC problem. Five deterministic and four stochastic case studies incorporated with interval forecasts of wind power are implemented. The results of these cases are presented and discussed together. Generation costs, and the scheduled and real-time economic dispatch reserves of different unit commitment strategies are compared. The experimental results show that the stochastic model is more robust than deterministic ones and, thus, decreases the risk in system operations of smart grids.

  9. A hybrid ARIMA and neural network model applied to forecast catch volumes of Selar crumenophthalmus

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aquino, Ronald L.; Alcantara, Nialle Loui Mar T.; Addawe, Rizavel C.

    2017-11-01

    The Selar crumenophthalmus with the English name big-eyed scad fish, locally known as matang-baka, is one of the fishes commonly caught along the waters of La Union, Philippines. The study deals with the forecasting of catch volumes of big-eyed scad fish for commercial consumption. The data used are quarterly caught volumes of big-eyed scad fish from 2002 to first quarter of 2017. This actual data is available from the open stat database published by the Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA)whose task is to collect, compiles, analyzes and publish information concerning different aspects of the Philippine setting. Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) models, Artificial Neural Network (ANN) model and the Hybrid model consisting of ARIMA and ANN were developed to forecast catch volumes of big-eyed scad fish. Statistical errors such as Mean Absolute Errors (MAE) and Root Mean Square Errors (RMSE) were computed and compared to choose the most suitable model for forecasting the catch volume for the next few quarters. A comparison of the results of each model and corresponding statistical errors reveals that the hybrid model, ARIMA-ANN (2,1,2)(6:3:1), is the most suitable model to forecast the catch volumes of the big-eyed scad fish for the next few quarters.

  10. NEMEFO: NEural MEteorological FOrecast

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pasero, E.; Moniaci, W.; Meindl, T.; Montuori, A. [Polytechnic of Turin (Italy). Dept. of Electronics

    2004-07-01

    Artificial Neural Systems are a well-known technique used to classify and recognize objects. Introducing the time dimension they can be used to forecast numerical series. NEMEFO is a ''nowcasting'' tool, which uses both statistical and neural systems to forecast meteorological data in a restricted area close to a meteorological weather station in a short time range (3 hours). Ice, fog, rain are typical events which can be anticipated by NEMEFO. (orig.)

  11. Artificial Neural Network Models for Long Lead Streamflow Forecasts using Climate Information

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kumar, J.; Devineni, N.

    2007-12-01

    Information on season ahead stream flow forecasts is very beneficial for the operation and management of water supply systems. Daily streamflow conditions at any particular reservoir primarily depend on atmospheric and land surface conditions including the soil moisture and snow pack. On the other hand recent studies suggest that developing long lead streamflow forecasts (3 months ahead) typically depends on exogenous climatic conditions particularly Sea Surface Temperature conditions (SST) in the tropical oceans. Examples of some oceanic variables are El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). Identification of such conditions that influence the moisture transport into a given basin poses many challenges given the nonlinear dependency between the predictors (SST) and predictand (stream flows). In this study, we apply both linear and nonlinear dependency measures to identify the predictors that influence the winter flows into the Neuse basin. The predictor identification approach here adopted uses simple correlation coefficients to spearman rank correlation measures for detecting nonlinear dependency. All these dependency measures are employed with a lag 3 time series of the high flow season (January - February - March) using 75 years (1928-2002) of stream flows recorded in to the Falls Lake, Neuse River Basin. Developing streamflow forecasts contingent on these exogenous predictors will play an important role towards improved water supply planning and management. Recently, the soft computing techniques, such as artificial neural networks (ANNs) have provided an alternative method to solve complex problems efficiently. ANNs are data driven models which trains on the examples given to it. The ANNs functions as universal approximators and are non linear in nature. This paper presents a study aiming towards using climatic predictors for 3 month lead time streamflow forecast. ANN models representing the physical process of the system are

  12. Short-Term Forecasting of Electric Loads Using Nonlinear Autoregressive Artificial Neural Networks with Exogenous Vector Inputs

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jaime Buitrago

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Short-term load forecasting is crucial for the operations planning of an electrical grid. Forecasting the next 24 h of electrical load in a grid allows operators to plan and optimize their resources. The purpose of this study is to develop a more accurate short-term load forecasting method utilizing non-linear autoregressive artificial neural networks (ANN with exogenous multi-variable input (NARX. The proposed implementation of the network is new: the neural network is trained in open-loop using actual load and weather data, and then, the network is placed in closed-loop to generate a forecast using the predicted load as the feedback input. Unlike the existing short-term load forecasting methods using ANNs, the proposed method uses its own output as the input in order to improve the accuracy, thus effectively implementing a feedback loop for the load, making it less dependent on external data. Using the proposed framework, mean absolute percent errors in the forecast in the order of 1% have been achieved, which is a 30% improvement on the average error using feedforward ANNs, ARMAX and state space methods, which can result in large savings by avoiding commissioning of unnecessary power plants. The New England electrical load data are used to train and validate the forecast prediction.

  13. Development and application of Artificial Neural Networks in forecasting the maximum daily precipitation at Athens, Greece

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nastos, P. T.; Paliatsos, A. G.; Larissi, I. K.; Moustris, K. P.

    2012-04-01

    Extreme daily precipitation events are involved in significant environmental damages, even in life loss, because of causing adverse impacts, such as flash floods, in urban and sometimes in rural areas. Thus, long-term forecast of such events is of great importance, in order to be prepared the local authorities to confront and mitigate the adverse consequences. The objective of this study is to estimate the possibility of forecasting the maximum daily precipitation for the next coming year. For this reason, appropriate prognostic models, such as Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) were developed and applied. The data used for the analysis concern daily precipitation totals, which have been recorded at National Observatory of Athens (NOA), during the period 1891-2009. To evaluate the potential of daily extreme precipitation prognosis by the applied ANNs, a different period was considered than the one used for the ANNs training. Thus, the datasets of the period 1891-1980 were used as training datasets, while the datasets of the period 1981-2009 as validation datasets. Appropriate statistical indices, such as the Coefficient of Determination (R2), the Index of Agreement (IA), the Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), and the Mean Bias Error (MBE) were applied to test the reliability of the models. The findings of the analysis showed that, a quite satisfactory relationship at the statistically significant level of p<0.01 appears between the forecasted maximum daily precipitation totals for the next coming year and the respective observed ones.

  14. Short-Term Wind Speed Forecasting Using Decomposition-Based Neural Networks Combining Abnormal Detection Method

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xuejun Chen

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available As one of the most promising renewable resources in electricity generation, wind energy is acknowledged for its significant environmental contributions and economic competitiveness. Because wind fluctuates with strong variation, it is quite difficult to describe the characteristics of wind or to estimate the power output that will be injected into the grid. In particular, short-term wind speed forecasting, an essential support for the regulatory actions and short-term load dispatching planning during the operation of wind farms, is currently regarded as one of the most difficult problems to be solved. This paper contributes to short-term wind speed forecasting by developing two three-stage hybrid approaches; both are combinations of the five-three-Hanning (53H weighted average smoothing method, ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD algorithm, and nonlinear autoregressive (NAR neural networks. The chosen datasets are ten-minute wind speed observations, including twelve samples, and our simulation indicates that the proposed methods perform much better than the traditional ones when addressing short-term wind speed forecasting problems.

  15. Forecasting recruitment and stock biomass of Northeast Arctic cod using neural networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Geir Huse

    2003-04-01

    Full Text Available We apply an artificial neural network (ANN to predict recruitment and biomass development of Northeast Arctic cod. The ANN is trained using a genetic algorithm with input time series such as spawning stock biomass of cod, herring and capelin biomass, and temperature. Forecasts were made by training the ANN on parts of the time series (training set, and then using a trained ANN to predict cod recruitment or biomass in years outside of the training set. In general the predictions corresponded well to observations. The correlation (r2 between observed and predicted stock recruitment at age 3 was 0.74, based on a model with temperature, spawning stock biomass, and capelin biomass. The correlation between observed and predicted stock biomass was 0.89, 0.72 and 0.57 for one, two and three year predictions respectively. The best model for the one year predictions was based on input information on cod biomass, temperature, and cod landings. These results illustrate the strong forecasting ability of ANN models. In the light of our findings we discuss the potential benefit of applying ANN models as a forecasting technology in fisheries assessment.

  16. Forecasting of Energy Expenditure of Induced Seismicity with Use of Artificial Neural Network

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cichy, Tomasz; Banka, Piotr

    2017-12-01

    Coal mining in many Polish mines in the Upper Silesian Coal Basin is accompanied by high levels of induced seismicity. In mining plants, the methods of shock monitoring are improved, allowing for more accurate localization of the occurring phenomena and determining their seismic energy. Equally important is the development of ways of forecasting seismic hazards that may occur while implementing mine design projects. These methods, depending on the length of time for which the forecasts are made, can be divided into: longterm, medium-term, short-term and so-called alarm. Long-term forecasts are particularly useful for the design of seam exploitations. The paper presents a method of predicting changes in energy expenditure of shock using a properly trained artificial neural network. This method allows to make long-term forecasts at the stage of the mine’s exploitation design, thus enabling the mining work plans to be reviewed to minimize the potential for tremors. The information given at the input of the neural network is indicative of the specific energy changes of the elastic deformation occurring in the selected, thick, resistant rock layers (tremor-prone layers). Energy changes, taking place in one or more tremor-prone layers are considered. These indicators describe only the specific energy changes of the elastic deformation accumulating in the rock as a consequence of the mining operation, but does not determine the amount of energy released during the destruction of a given volume of rock. In this process, the potential energy of elastic strain transforms into other, non-measurable energy types, including the seismic energy of recorded tremors. In this way, potential energy changes affect the observed induced seismicity. The parameters used are characterized by increases (declines) of specific energy with separation to occur before the hypothetical destruction of the rock and after it. Additional input information is an index characterizing the rate of

  17. A Hybrid Neural Network Model for Sales Forecasting Based on ARIMA and Search Popularity of Article Titles

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hani Omar

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Enhancing sales and operations planning through forecasting analysis and business intelligence is demanded in many industries and enterprises. Publishing industries usually pick attractive titles and headlines for their stories to increase sales, since popular article titles and headlines can attract readers to buy magazines. In this paper, information retrieval techniques are adopted to extract words from article titles. The popularity measures of article titles are then analyzed by using the search indexes obtained from Google search engine. Backpropagation Neural Networks (BPNNs have successfully been used to develop prediction models for sales forecasting. In this study, we propose a novel hybrid neural network model for sales forecasting based on the prediction result of time series forecasting and the popularity of article titles. The proposed model uses the historical sales data, popularity of article titles, and the prediction result of a time series, Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA forecasting method to learn a BPNN-based forecasting model. Our proposed forecasting model is experimentally evaluated by comparing with conventional sales prediction techniques. The experimental result shows that our proposed forecasting method outperforms conventional techniques which do not consider the popularity of title words.

  18. A Hybrid Neural Network Model for Sales Forecasting Based on ARIMA and Search Popularity of Article Titles.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Omar, Hani; Hoang, Van Hai; Liu, Duen-Ren

    2016-01-01

    Enhancing sales and operations planning through forecasting analysis and business intelligence is demanded in many industries and enterprises. Publishing industries usually pick attractive titles and headlines for their stories to increase sales, since popular article titles and headlines can attract readers to buy magazines. In this paper, information retrieval techniques are adopted to extract words from article titles. The popularity measures of article titles are then analyzed by using the search indexes obtained from Google search engine. Backpropagation Neural Networks (BPNNs) have successfully been used to develop prediction models for sales forecasting. In this study, we propose a novel hybrid neural network model for sales forecasting based on the prediction result of time series forecasting and the popularity of article titles. The proposed model uses the historical sales data, popularity of article titles, and the prediction result of a time series, Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) forecasting method to learn a BPNN-based forecasting model. Our proposed forecasting model is experimentally evaluated by comparing with conventional sales prediction techniques. The experimental result shows that our proposed forecasting method outperforms conventional techniques which do not consider the popularity of title words.

  19. A Hybrid Neural Network Model for Sales Forecasting Based on ARIMA and Search Popularity of Article Titles

    Science.gov (United States)

    Omar, Hani; Hoang, Van Hai; Liu, Duen-Ren

    2016-01-01

    Enhancing sales and operations planning through forecasting analysis and business intelligence is demanded in many industries and enterprises. Publishing industries usually pick attractive titles and headlines for their stories to increase sales, since popular article titles and headlines can attract readers to buy magazines. In this paper, information retrieval techniques are adopted to extract words from article titles. The popularity measures of article titles are then analyzed by using the search indexes obtained from Google search engine. Backpropagation Neural Networks (BPNNs) have successfully been used to develop prediction models for sales forecasting. In this study, we propose a novel hybrid neural network model for sales forecasting based on the prediction result of time series forecasting and the popularity of article titles. The proposed model uses the historical sales data, popularity of article titles, and the prediction result of a time series, Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) forecasting method to learn a BPNN-based forecasting model. Our proposed forecasting model is experimentally evaluated by comparing with conventional sales prediction techniques. The experimental result shows that our proposed forecasting method outperforms conventional techniques which do not consider the popularity of title words. PMID:27313605

  20. Short-Term Solar Irradiance Forecasting Model Based on Artificial Neural Network Using Statistical Feature Parameters

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hongshan Zhao

    2012-05-01

    Full Text Available Short-term solar irradiance forecasting (STSIF is of great significance for the optimal operation and power predication of grid-connected photovoltaic (PV plants. However, STSIF is very complex to handle due to the random and nonlinear characteristics of solar irradiance under changeable weather conditions. Artificial Neural Network (ANN is suitable for STSIF modeling and many research works on this topic are presented, but the conciseness and robustness of the existing models still need to be improved. After discussing the relation between weather variations and irradiance, the characteristics of the statistical feature parameters of irradiance under different weather conditions are figured out. A novel ANN model using statistical feature parameters (ANN-SFP for STSIF is proposed in this paper. The input vector is reconstructed with several statistical feature parameters of irradiance and ambient temperature. Thus sufficient information can be effectively extracted from relatively few inputs and the model complexity is reduced. The model structure is determined by cross-validation (CV, and the Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm (LMA is used for the network training. Simulations are carried out to validate and compare the proposed model with the conventional ANN model using historical data series (ANN-HDS, and the results indicated that the forecast accuracy is obviously improved under variable weather conditions.

  1. A Hybrid Neural Network and H-P Filter Model for Short-Term Vegetable Price Forecasting

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Youzhu Li

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper is concerned with time series data for vegetable prices, which have a great impact on human’s life. An accurate forecasting method for prices and an early-warning system in the vegetable market are an urgent need in people’s daily lives. The time series price data contain both linear and nonlinear patterns. Therefore, neither a current linear forecasting nor a neural network can be adequate for modeling and predicting the time series data. The linear forecasting model cannot deal with nonlinear relationships, while the neural network model alone is not able to handle both linear and nonlinear patterns at the same time. The linear Hodrick-Prescott (H-P filter can extract the trend and cyclical components from time series data. We predict the linear and nonlinear patterns and then combine the two parts linearly to produce a forecast from the original data. This study proposes a structure of a hybrid neural network based on an H-P filter that learns the trend and seasonal patterns separately. The experiment uses vegetable prices data to evaluate the model. Comparisons with the autoregressive integrated moving average method and back propagation artificial neural network methods show that our method has higher accuracy than the others.

  2. Artificial neural networks modeling for forecasting the maximum daily total precipitation at Athens, Greece

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nastos, P. T.; Paliatsos, A. G.; Koukouletsos, K. V.; Larissi, I. K.; Moustris, K. P.

    2014-07-01

    Extreme daily precipitation events are involved in significant environmental damages, even in life loss, because of causing adverse impacts, such as flash floods, in urban and sometimes in rural areas. Thus, long-term forecast of such events is of great importance for the preparation of local authorities in order to confront and mitigate the adverse consequences. The objective of this study is to estimate the possibility of forecasting the maximum daily precipitation for the next coming year. For this reason, appropriate prognostic models, such as Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) were developed and applied. The data used for the analysis concern annual maximum daily precipitation totals, which have been recorded at the National Observatory of Athens (NOA), during the long term period 1891-2009. To evaluate the potential of daily extreme precipitation forecast by the applied ANNs, a different period for validation was considered than the one used for the ANNs training. Thus, the datasets of the period 1891-1980 were used as training datasets, while the datasets of the period 1981-2009 as validation datasets. Appropriate statistical indices, such as the coefficient of determination (R2), the index of agreement (IA), the Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) and the Mean Bias Error (MBE), were applied to test the reliability of the models. The findings of the analysis showed that, a quite satisfactory relationship (R2 = 0.482, IA = 0.817, RMSE = 16.4 mm and MBE = + 5.2 mm) appears between the forecasted and the respective observed maximum daily precipitation totals one year ahead. The developed ANN seems to overestimate the maximum daily precipitation totals appeared in 1988 while underestimate the maximum in 1999, which could be attributed to the relatively low frequency of occurrence of these extreme events within GAA having impact on the optimum training of ANN.

  3. Forecasting of Groundwater Level using Artificial Neural Network by incorporating river recharge and river bank infiltration

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    Nizar Shamsuddin Mohd Khairul

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Groundwater tables forecasting during implemented river bank infiltration (RBI method is important to identify adequate storage of groundwater aquifer for water supply purposes. This study illustrates the development and application of artificial neural networks (ANNs to predict groundwater tables in two vertical wells located in confined aquifer adjacent to the Langat River. ANN model was used in this study is based on the long period forecasting of daily groundwater tables. ANN models were carried out to predict groundwater tables for 1 day ahead at two different geological materials. The input to the ANN models consider of daily rainfall, river stage, water level, stream flow rate, temperature and groundwater level. Two different type of ANNs structure were used to predict the fluctuation of groundwater tables and compared the best forecasting values. The performance of different models structure of the ANN is used to identify the fluctuation of the groundwater table and provide acceptable predictions. Dynamics prediction and time series of the system can be implemented in two possible ways of modelling. The coefficient correlation (R, Mean Square Error (MSE, Root Mean Square Error (RMSE and coefficient determination (R2 were chosen as the selection criteria of the best model. The statistical values for DW1 are 0.8649, 0.0356, 0.01, and 0.748 respectively. While for DW2 the statistical values are 0.7392, 0.0781, 0.0139, and 0.546 respectively. Based on these results, it clearly shows that accurate predictions can be achieved with time series 1-day ahead of forecasting groundwater table and the interaction between river and aquifer can be examine. The findings of the study can be used to assist policy marker to manage groundwater resources by using RBI method.

  4. DEVELOPMENT OF NEURAL NETWORKS FOR FORECASTING OF CHEMICAL SUBSTANCES’ MIGRATION IN SOIL AND ALGORITHMS OF THEIR TRAINING

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    S. P. Kundas

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available A review of the existing models and methods for forecasting chemical substances' migration in soil is contained in the paper. The paper shows that the most effective decision for solving ecological tasks in this field is an application of artificial neural networks using training «with a tutor» on the basis of an inverse error propagation algorithm. Corresponding structures of  neural networks for solution of the given problem have been developed in the paper.A new method for artificial neural network training based on the modification of an inverse error propagation algorithm while using an additional signal is proposed in the paper. The given method allows to achieve 100% convergence in the forecasting problems pertaining to chemical substances' migration in soil. 

  5. Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs for flood forecasting at Dongola Station in the River Nile, Sudan

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    Sulafa Hag Elsafi

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available Heavy seasonal rains cause the River Nile in Sudan to overflow and flood the surroundings areas. The floods destroy houses, crops, roads, and basic infrastructure, resulting in the displacement of people. This study aimed to forecast the River Nile flow at Dongola Station in Sudan using an Artificial Neural Network (ANN as a modeling tool and validated the accuracy of the model against actual flow. The ANN model was formulated to simulate flows at a certain location in the river reach, based on flow at upstream locations. Different procedures were applied to predict flooding by the ANN. Readings from stations along the Blue Nile, White Nile, Main Nile, and River Atbara between 1965 and 2003 were used to predict the likelihood of flooding at Dongola Station. The analysis indicated that the ANN provides a reliable means of detecting the flood hazard in the River Nile.

  6. Application of Artificial Neural Network into the Water Level Modeling and Forecast

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    Marzenna Sztobryn

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available The dangerous sea and river water level increase does not only destroy the human lives, but also generate the severe flooding in coastal areas. The rapidly changes in the direction and velocity of wind and associated with them sea level changes could be the severe threat for navigation, especially on the fairways of small fishery harbors located in the river mouth. There is the area of activity of two external forcing: storm surges and flood wave. The aim of the work was the description of an application of Artificial Neural Network (ANN methodology into the water level forecast in the case study field in Swibno harbor located is located at 938.7 km of the Wisla River and at a distance of about 3 km up the mouth (Gulf of Gdansk - Baltic Sea.

  7. Using wavelet-feedforward neural networks to improve air pollution forecasting in urban environments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dunea, Daniel; Pohoata, Alin; Iordache, Stefania

    2015-07-01

    The paper presents the screening of various feedforward neural networks (FANN) and wavelet-feedforward neural networks (WFANN) applied to time series of ground-level ozone (O3), nitrogen dioxide (NO2), and particulate matter (PM10 and PM2.5 fractions) recorded at four monitoring stations located in various urban areas of Romania, to identify common configurations with optimal generalization performance. Two distinct model runs were performed as follows: data processing using hourly-recorded time series of airborne pollutants during cold months (O3, NO2, and PM10), when residential heating increases the local emissions, and data processing using 24-h daily averaged concentrations (PM2.5) recorded between 2009 and 2012. Dataset variability was assessed using statistical analysis. Time series were passed through various FANNs. Each time series was decomposed in four time-scale components using three-level wavelets, which have been passed also through FANN, and recomposed into a single time series. The agreement between observed and modelled output was evaluated based on the statistical significance (r coefficient and correlation between errors and data). Daubechies db3 wavelet-Rprop FANN (6-4-1) utilization gave positive results for O3 time series optimizing the exclusive use of the FANN for hourly-recorded time series. NO2 was difficult to model due to time series specificity, but wavelet integration improved FANN performances. Daubechies db3 wavelet did not improve the FANN outputs for PM10 time series. Both models (FANN/WFANN) overestimated PM2.5 forecasted values in the last quarter of time series. A potential improvement of the forecasted values could be the integration of a smoothing algorithm to adjust the PM2.5 model outputs.

  8. Comparison of different forms of the Multi-layer Feed-Forward Neural Network method used for river flow forecasting

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    A. Y. Shamseldin

    2002-01-01

    Full Text Available The Multi-Layer Feed-Forward Neural Network (MLFFNN is applied in the context of river flow forecast combination, where a number of rainfall-runoff models are used simultaneously to produce an overall combined river flow forecast. The operation of the MLFFNN depends not only on its neuron configuration but also on the choice of neuron transfer function adopted, which is non-linear for the hidden and output layers. These models, each having a different structure to simulate the perceived mechanisms of the runoff process, utilise the information carrying capacity of the model calibration data in different ways. Hence, in a discharge forecast combination procedure, the discharge forecasts of each model provide a source of information different from that of the other models used in the combination. In the present work, the significance of the choice of the transfer function type in the overall performance of the MLFFNN, when used in the river flow forecast combination context, is investigated critically. Five neuron transfer functions are used in this investigation, namely, the logistic function, the bipolar function, the hyperbolic tangent function, the arctan function and the scaled arctan function. The results indicate that the logistic function yields the best model forecast combination performance. Keywords: River flow forecast combination, multi-layer feed-forward neural network, neuron transfer functions, rainfall-runoff models

  9. Forecasting Electricity Demand in Thailand with an Artificial Neural Network Approach

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    Karin Kandananond

    2011-08-01

    Full Text Available Demand planning for electricity consumption is a key success factor for the development of any countries. However, this can only be achieved if the demand is forecasted accurately. In this research, different forecasting methods—autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA, artificial neural network (ANN and multiple linear regression (MLR—were utilized to formulate prediction models of the electricity demand in Thailand. The objective was to compare the performance of these three approaches and the empirical data used in this study was the historical data regarding the electricity demand (population, gross domestic product: GDP, stock index, revenue from exporting industrial products and electricity consumption in Thailand from 1986 to 2010. The results showed that the ANN model reduced the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE to 0.996%, while those of ARIMA and MLR were 2.80981 and 3.2604527%, respectively. Based on these error measures, the results indicated that the ANN approach outperformed the ARIMA and MLR methods in this scenario. However, the paired test indicated that there was no significant difference among these methods at α = 0.05. According to the principle of parsimony, the ARIMA and MLR models might be preferable to the ANN one because of their simple structure and competitive performance

  10. Forecasting Method for Urban Rail Transit Ridership at Station Level Using Back Propagation Neural Network

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    Junfang Li

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Direct forecasting method for Urban Rail Transit (URT ridership at the station level is not able to reflect nonlinear relationship between ridership and its predictors. Also, population is inappropriately expressed in this method since it is not uniformly distributed by area. In this paper, a new variable, population per distance band, is considered and a back propagation neural network (BPNN model which can reflect nonlinear relationship between ridership and its predictors is proposed to forecast ridership. Key predictors are obtained through partial correlation analysis. The performance of the proposed model is compared with three other benchmark models, which are linear model with population per distance band, BPNN model with total population, and linear model with total population, using four measures of effectiveness (MOEs, maximum relative error (MRE, smallest relative error (SRE, average relative error (ARE, and mean square root of relative error (MSRRE. Also, another model for contribution rate of population per distance band to ridership is formulated based on the BPNN model with nonpopulation variables fixed. Case studies with Japanese data show that BPNN model with population per distance band outperforms other three models and the contribution rate of population within special distance band to ridership calculated through the contribution rate model is 70%~92.9% close to actual statistical value. The result confirms the effectiveness of models proposed in this paper.

  11. Forecasting Hoabinh Reservoir’s Incoming Flow: An Application of Neural Networks with the Cuckoo Search Algorithm

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    Jeng-Fung Chen

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available The accuracy of reservoir flow forecasting has the most significant influence on the assurance of stability and annual operations of hydro-constructions. For instance, accurate forecasting on the ebb and flow of Vietnam’s Hoabinh Reservoir can aid in the preparation and prevention of lowland flooding and drought, as well as regulating electric energy. This raises the need to propose a model that accurately forecasts the incoming flow of the Hoabinh Reservoir. In this study, a solution to this problem based on neural network with the Cuckoo Search (CS algorithm is presented. In particular, we used hydrographic data and predicted total incoming flows of the Hoabinh Reservoir over a period of 10 days. The Cuckoo Search algorithm was utilized to train the feedforward neural network (FNN for prediction. The algorithm optimized the weights between layers and biases of the neuron network. Different forecasting models for the three scenarios were developed. The constructed models have shown high forecasting performance based on the performance indices calculated. These results were also compared with those obtained from the neural networks trained by the particle swarm optimization (PSO and back-propagation (BP, indicating that the proposed approach performed more effectively. Based on the experimental results, the scenario using the rainfall and the flow as input yielded the highest forecasting accuracy when compared with other scenarios. The performance criteria RMSE, MAPE, and R obtained by the CS-FNN in this scenario were calculated as 48.7161, 0.067268 and 0.8965, respectively. These results were highly correlated to actual values. It is expected that this work may be useful for hydrographic forecasting.

  12. Forecasting outpatient visits using empirical mode decomposition coupled with back-propagation artificial neural networks optimized by particle swarm optimization.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Daizheng; Wu, Zhihui

    2017-01-01

    Accurately predicting the trend of outpatient visits by mathematical modeling can help policy makers manage hospitals effectively, reasonably organize schedules for human resources and finances, and appropriately distribute hospital material resources. In this study, a hybrid method based on empirical mode decomposition and back-propagation artificial neural networks optimized by particle swarm optimization is developed to forecast outpatient visits on the basis of monthly numbers. The data outpatient visits are retrieved from January 2005 to December 2013 and first obtained as the original time series. Second, the original time series is decomposed into a finite and often small number of intrinsic mode functions by the empirical mode decomposition technique. Third, a three-layer back-propagation artificial neural network is constructed to forecast each intrinsic mode functions. To improve network performance and avoid falling into a local minimum, particle swarm optimization is employed to optimize the weights and thresholds of back-propagation artificial neural networks. Finally, the superposition of forecasting results of the intrinsic mode functions is regarded as the ultimate forecasting value. Simulation indicates that the proposed method attains a better performance index than the other four methods.

  13. A Hybrid Method Based on Singular Spectrum Analysis, Firefly Algorithm, and BP Neural Network for Short-Term Wind Speed Forecasting

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yuyang Gao

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available With increasing importance being attached to big data mining, analysis, and forecasting in the field of wind energy, how to select an optimization model to improve the forecasting accuracy of the wind speed time series is not only an extremely challenging problem, but also a problem of concern for economic forecasting. The artificial intelligence model is widely used in forecasting and data processing, but the individual back-propagation artificial neural network cannot always satisfy the time series forecasting needs. Thus, a hybrid forecasting approach has been proposed in this study, which consists of data preprocessing, parameter optimization and a neural network for advancing the accuracy of short-term wind speed forecasting. According to the case study, in which the data are collected from Peng Lai, a city located in China, the simulation results indicate that the hybrid forecasting method yields better predictions compared to the individual BP, which indicates that the hybrid method exhibits stronger forecasting ability.

  14. Forecasting the Dst index using a swarm-optimized neural network

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lazzús, J. A.; Vega, P.; Rojas, P.; Salfate, I.

    2017-08-01

    A hybrid technique that combines an artificial neural network with a particle swarm optimization (ANN+PSO) was used to forecast the disturbance storm time (Dst) index from 1 to 6 h ahead. Our ANN was optimized by PSO to update ANN weights and to predict the short-term Dst index using past values as input parameters. The database used contains 233,760 hourly data from 1 January 1990 to 31 August 2016, considering storms and quiet period, grouped into three data sets: learning set (with 116,880 hourly data points), validation set (with 58,440 data points), and testing set (with 58,440 data points). Several ANN topologies were studied, and the best architecture was determined by systematically adding neurons and evaluating the root-mean-square error (RMSE) and the correlation coefficient (R) during the training process. These results show that the hybrid algorithm is a powerful technique for forecasting the Dst index a short time in advance like t + 1 to t + 3, with RMSE from 3.5 nT to 7.5 nT, and R from 0.98 to 0.90. However, t + 4 to t + 6 predictions become slightly more uncertain, with RMSE from 8.8 nT to 10.9 nT, and R from 0.86 to 0.79. Additionally, an exhaustive analysis according to geomagnetic storm magnitude was conducted. In general, the results show that our hybrid algorithm can be correctly trained to forecast the Dst index with appropriate precision and that Dst past behavior significantly affects adequate training and predicting capabilities of the implemented ANN.

  15. PM(10) emission forecasting using artificial neural networks and genetic algorithm input variable optimization.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Antanasijević, Davor Z; Pocajt, Viktor V; Povrenović, Dragan S; Ristić, Mirjana Đ; Perić-Grujić, Aleksandra A

    2013-01-15

    This paper describes the development of an artificial neural network (ANN) model for the forecasting of annual PM(10) emissions at the national level, using widely available sustainability and economical/industrial parameters as inputs. The inputs for the model were selected and optimized using a genetic algorithm and the ANN was trained using the following variables: gross domestic product, gross inland energy consumption, incineration of wood, motorization rate, production of paper and paperboard, sawn wood production, production of refined copper, production of aluminum, production of pig iron and production of crude steel. The wide availability of the input parameters used in this model can overcome a lack of data and basic environmental indicators in many countries, which can prevent or seriously impede PM emission forecasting. The model was trained and validated with the data for 26 EU countries for the period from 1999 to 2006. PM(10) emission data, collected through the Convention on Long-range Transboundary Air Pollution - CLRTAP and the EMEP Programme or as emission estimations by the Regional Air Pollution Information and Simulation (RAINS) model, were obtained from Eurostat. The ANN model has shown very good performance and demonstrated that the forecast of PM(10) emission up to two years can be made successfully and accurately. The mean absolute error for two-year PM(10) emission prediction was only 10%, which is more than three times better than the predictions obtained from the conventional multi-linear regression and principal component regression models that were trained and tested using the same datasets and input variables. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  16. Water level forecasting through fuzzy logic and artificial neural network approaches

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    S. Alvisi

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available In this study three data-driven water level forecasting models are presented and discussed. One is based on the artificial neural networks approach, while the other two are based on the Mamdani and the Takagi-Sugeno fuzzy logic approaches, respectively. All of them are parameterised with reference to flood events alone, where water levels are higher than a selected threshold. The analysis of the three models is performed by using the same input and output variables. However, in order to evaluate their capability to deal with different levels of information, two different input sets are considered. The former is characterized by significant spatial and time aggregated rainfall information, while the latter considers rainfall information more distributed in space and time. The analysis is made with great attention to the reliability and accuracy of each model, with reference to the Reno river at Casalecchio di Reno (Bologna, Italy. It is shown that the two models based on the fuzzy logic approaches perform better when the physical phenomena considered are synthesised by both a limited number of variables and IF-THEN logic statements, while the ANN approach increases its performance when more detailed information is used. As regards the reliability aspect, it is shown that the models based on the fuzzy logic approaches may fail unexpectedly to forecast the water levels, in the sense that in the testing phase, some input combinations are not recognised by the rule system and thus no forecasting is performed. This problem does not occur in the ANN approach.

  17. Short term forecasting for HFSWR sea surface current mapping using artificial neural network

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lai, J. W.; Lu, Y. C.; Hsieh, C. M.; Liau, J. M.; Yang, W. C.

    2016-02-01

    Taiwan Ocean Research Institute (TORI) established the Taiwan Ocean Radar Observing System (TOROS) based on the CODAR high frequency surface wave radar (HFSWR). The TOROS is the first network having complete, contiguous HFSWR coverage of nation's coastline in the world. This network consisting of 17 SeaSonde radars offers coverage across approximately 190,000 square kilometers an area, over five times the size of Taiwan's entire land mass. In the southernmost and narrowest part of Taiwan, two 13 MHz and one 24 MHz radars were established along the NanWan Bay since June, 2014. NanWan Bay, the southern tip of Taiwan, is a southward semi-enclosed basin bounded by two capes and is open to the Luzon Strait. The distance between the two caps is around 12 km, and the distance from the northernmost point of the bay to the caps are 5 and 11 km, respectively. Strong tidal currents dominate the ocean circulation in the NanWan Bay and induce obvious upwelling of cold water that intrudes on to the shallow regions of NanWan Bay around spring tides. From late fall to early spring, the seaward wind dominated by the northeast monsoon often destratifies the water column and decreases the sea surface temperature inside the Bay (Lee et al, 1997). Furthermore, the Nanwan Bay is famous with well-developed fringing reefs distributed along the shoreline. In this area, 230 species of scleractinian corals, nine species of non-scleractinian reef-building corals, and 40 species of alcyonacean corals have been recorded (Dai, 1991). NanWan, in the shape of a beautiful arch, attracts large crowds of people to take all kinds of beach or water activities every summer. In order to improve the applicability of HFSWR ocean surface current data on search and rescue issue and evaluation of coral spawn dispersal, a short term forecasting model using artificial neural network (ANN) was developed in this study. That ocean surface current vectors obtained from tidal theory are added as inputs in artificial

  18. A Dynamic Fuzzy Controller to Meet Thermal Comfort by Using Neural Network Forecasted Parameters as the Input

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    Mario Collotta

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available Heating, ventilating and air-conditioning (HVAC systems are typical non-linear time-variable multivariate systems with disturbances and uncertainties. In this paper, an approach based on a combined neuro-fuzzy model for dynamic and automatic regulation of indoor temperature is proposed. The proposed artificial neural network performs indoor temperatures forecasts that are used to feed a fuzzy logic control unit in order to manage the on/off switching of the HVAC system and the regulation of the inlet air speed. Moreover, the used neural network is optimized by the analytical calculation of the embedding parameters, and the goodness of this approach is tested through MATLAB. The fuzzy controller is driven by the indoor temperature forecasted by the neural network module and is able to adjust the membership functions dynamically, since thermal comfort is a very subjective factor and may vary even in the same subject. The paper shows some experimental results, through a real implementation in an embedded prototyping board, of the proposed approach in terms of the evolution of the inlet air speed injected by the fan coils, the indoor air temperature forecasted by the neural network model and the adjusting of the membership functions after receiving user feedback.

  19. A hybrid approach to monthly streamflow forecasting: Integrating hydrological model outputs into a Bayesian artificial neural network

    Science.gov (United States)

    Humphrey, Greer B.; Gibbs, Matthew S.; Dandy, Graeme C.; Maier, Holger R.

    2016-09-01

    Monthly streamflow forecasts are needed to support water resources decision making in the South East of South Australia, where baseflow represents a significant proportion of the total streamflow and soil moisture and groundwater are important predictors of runoff. To address this requirement, the utility of a hybrid monthly streamflow forecasting approach is explored, whereby simulated soil moisture from the GR4J conceptual rainfall-runoff model is used to represent initial catchment conditions in a Bayesian artificial neural network (ANN) statistical forecasting model. To assess the performance of this hybrid forecasting method, a comparison is undertaken of the relative performances of the Bayesian ANN, the GR4J conceptual model and the hybrid streamflow forecasting approach for producing 1-month ahead streamflow forecasts at three key locations in the South East of South Australia. Particular attention is paid to the quantification of uncertainty in each of the forecast models and the potential for reducing forecast uncertainty by using the hybrid approach is considered. Case study results suggest that the hybrid models developed in this study are able to take advantage of the complementary strengths of both the ANN models and the GR4J conceptual models. This was particularly the case when forecasting high flows, where the hybrid models were shown to outperform the two individual modelling approaches in terms of the accuracy of the median forecasts, as well as reliability and resolution of the forecast distributions. In addition, the forecast distributions generated by the hybrid models were up to 8 times more precise than those based on climatology; thus, providing a significant improvement on the information currently available to decision makers.

  20. Forecasting the Acquisition of University Spin-Outs: An RBF Neural Network Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Weiwei Liu

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available University spin-outs (USOs, creating businesses from university intellectual property, are a relatively common phenomena. As a knowledge transfer channel, the spin-out business model is attracting extensive attention. In this paper, the impacts of six equities on the acquisition of USOs, including founders, university, banks, business angels, venture capitals, and other equity, are comprehensively analyzed based on theoretical and empirical studies. Firstly, the average distribution of spin-out equity at formation is calculated based on the sample data of 350 UK USOs. According to this distribution, a radial basis function (RBF neural network (NN model is employed to forecast the effects of each equity on the acquisition. To improve the classification accuracy, the novel set-membership method is adopted in the training process of the RBF NN. Furthermore, a simulation test is carried out to measure the effects of six equities on the acquisition of USOs. The simulation results show that the increase of university’s equity has a negative effect on the acquisition of USOs, whereas the increase of remaining five equities has positive effects. Finally, three suggestions are provided to promote the development and growth of USOs.

  1. Artificial neural network and SARIMA based models for power load forecasting in Turkish electricity market.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bozkurt, Ömer Özgür; Biricik, Göksel; Tayşi, Ziya Cihan

    2017-01-01

    Load information plays an important role in deregulated electricity markets, since it is the primary factor to make critical decisions on production planning, day-to-day operations, unit commitment and economic dispatch. Being able to predict the load for a short term, which covers one hour to a few days, equips power generation facilities and traders with an advantage. With the deregulation of electricity markets, a variety of short term load forecasting models are developed. Deregulation in Turkish Electricity Market has started in 2001 and liberalization is still in progress with rules being effective in its predefined schedule. However, there is a very limited number of studies for Turkish Market. In this study, we introduce two different models for current Turkish Market using Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) and Artificial Neural Network (ANN) and present their comparative performances. Building models that cope with the dynamic nature of deregulated market and are able to run in real-time is the main contribution of this study. We also use our ANN based model to evaluate the effect of several factors, which are claimed to have effect on electrical load.

  2. Synthesis of Ultra High Molecular Weight HPAM and Viscosity Forecast by BP Neural Network

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    Guohao CHEN

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available Hydrolyzed polyacrylamide (HPAM is widely used to increase the sweep efficiency of water phase in oil reservoirs. It is very important to select proper polymer for the reservoirs. In this study, a series of ultra high molecular weight HPAMs were synthesized and characterized by FT-IR analysis. Their physical properties were tested under reservoir condition. BP neural network (BPNN was employed to forecast the viscosity of high molecular weight HPAM in produced water. The input indices including molecular weight, solid content, degree of hydrolysis, water-insoluble residue, polymer concentration, temperature of reservoir and salinity of produced water. The results show that all physical properties fulfill the requirements of Q/SY DQ1059-2005. This BPNN can predict the viscosity of ultra high molecular weight HPAM accurately. It is proposed that this BPNN can be used to screen proper polymers for enhance oil recovery.DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5755/j01.ms.21.4.9698

  3. THE EFFECT OF DECOMPOSITION METHOD AS DATA PREPROCESSING ON NEURAL NETWORKS MODEL FOR FORECASTING TREND AND SEASONAL TIME SERIES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Subanar Subanar

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available Recently, one of the central topics for the neural networks (NN community is the issue of data preprocessing on the use of NN. In this paper, we will investigate this topic particularly on the effect of Decomposition method as data processing and the use of NN for modeling effectively time series with both trend and seasonal patterns. Limited empirical studies on seasonal time series forecasting with neural networks show that some find neural networks are able to model seasonality directly and prior deseasonalization is not necessary, and others conclude just the opposite. In this research, we study particularly on the effectiveness of data preprocessing, including detrending and deseasonalization by applying Decomposition method on NN modeling and forecasting performance. We use two kinds of data, simulation and real data. Simulation data are examined on multiplicative of trend and seasonality patterns. The results are compared to those obtained from the classical time series model. Our result shows that a combination of detrending and deseasonalization by applying Decomposition method is the effective data preprocessing on the use of NN for forecasting trend and seasonal time series.

  4. Weather forecasting based on hybrid neural model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saba, Tanzila; Rehman, Amjad; AlGhamdi, Jarallah S.

    2017-02-01

    Making deductions and expectations about climate has been a challenge all through mankind's history. Challenges with exact meteorological directions assist to foresee and handle problems well in time. Different strategies have been investigated using various machine learning techniques in reported forecasting systems. Current research investigates climate as a major challenge for machine information mining and deduction. Accordingly, this paper presents a hybrid neural model (MLP and RBF) to enhance the accuracy of weather forecasting. Proposed hybrid model ensure precise forecasting due to the specialty of climate anticipating frameworks. The study concentrates on the data representing Saudi Arabia weather forecasting. The main input features employed to train individual and hybrid neural networks that include average dew point, minimum temperature, maximum temperature, mean temperature, average relative moistness, precipitation, normal wind speed, high wind speed and average cloudiness. The output layer composed of two neurons to represent rainy and dry weathers. Moreover, trial and error approach is adopted to select an appropriate number of inputs to the hybrid neural network. Correlation coefficient, RMSE and scatter index are the standard yard sticks adopted for forecast accuracy measurement. On individual standing MLP forecasting results are better than RBF, however, the proposed simplified hybrid neural model comes out with better forecasting accuracy as compared to both individual networks. Additionally, results are better than reported in the state of art, using a simple neural structure that reduces training time and complexity.

  5. Weather forecasting based on hybrid neural model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saba, Tanzila; Rehman, Amjad; AlGhamdi, Jarallah S.

    2017-11-01

    Making deductions and expectations about climate has been a challenge all through mankind's history. Challenges with exact meteorological directions assist to foresee and handle problems well in time. Different strategies have been investigated using various machine learning techniques in reported forecasting systems. Current research investigates climate as a major challenge for machine information mining and deduction. Accordingly, this paper presents a hybrid neural model (MLP and RBF) to enhance the accuracy of weather forecasting. Proposed hybrid model ensure precise forecasting due to the specialty of climate anticipating frameworks. The study concentrates on the data representing Saudi Arabia weather forecasting. The main input features employed to train individual and hybrid neural networks that include average dew point, minimum temperature, maximum temperature, mean temperature, average relative moistness, precipitation, normal wind speed, high wind speed and average cloudiness. The output layer composed of two neurons to represent rainy and dry weathers. Moreover, trial and error approach is adopted to select an appropriate number of inputs to the hybrid neural network. Correlation coefficient, RMSE and scatter index are the standard yard sticks adopted for forecast accuracy measurement. On individual standing MLP forecasting results are better than RBF, however, the proposed simplified hybrid neural model comes out with better forecasting accuracy as compared to both individual networks. Additionally, results are better than reported in the state of art, using a simple neural structure that reduces training time and complexity.

  6. Forecasting of Turkey inflation with hybrid of feed forward and recurrent artifical neural networks

    OpenAIRE

    Erilli, N. Alp; Eğrioğlu, Erol; Yolcu, Ufuk; Aladağ, Ç. Hakan; Uslu, V. Rezzan

    2010-01-01

    Obtaining the inflation prediction is an important problem. Having this prediction accurately will lead to more accurate decisions. Various time series techniques have been used in the literature for inflation prediction. Recently, Artificial Neural Network (ANN) is being preferred in the time series prediction problem due to its flexible modeling capacity. Artificial neural network can be applied easily to any time series since it does not require prior conditions such as a linear or curved ...

  7. Comparison of different forms of the Multi-layer Feed-Forward Neural Network method used for river flow forecasting

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shamseldin, A. Y.; Nasr, A. E.; O'Connor, K. M.

    The Multi-Layer Feed-Forward Neural Network (MLFFNN) is applied in the context of river flow forecast combination, where a number of rainfall-runoff models are used simultaneously to produce an overall combined river flow forecast. The operation of the MLFFNN depends not only on its neuron configuration but also on the choice of neuron transfer function adopted, which is non-linear for the hidden and output layers. These models, each having a different structure to simulate the perceived mechanisms of the runoff process, utilise the information carrying capacity of the model calibration data in different ways. Hence, in a discharge forecast combination procedure, the discharge forecasts of each model provide a source of information different from that of the other models used in the combination. In the present work, the significance of the choice of the transfer function type in the overall performance of the MLFFNN, when used in the river flow forecast combination context, is investigated critically. Five neuron transfer functions are used in this investigation, namely, the logistic function, the bipolar function, the hyperbolic tangent function, the arctan function and the scaled arctan function. The results indicate that the logistic function yields the best model forecast combination performance.

  8. Multistep Wind Speed Forecasting Using a Novel Model Hybridizing Singular Spectrum Analysis, Modified Intelligent Optimization, and Rolling Elman Neural Network

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhongshan Yang

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Wind speed high-accuracy forecasting, an important part of the electrical system monitoring and control, is of the essence to protect the safety of wind power utilization. However, the wind speed signals are always intermittent and intrinsic complexity; therefore, it is difficult to forecast them accurately. Many traditional wind speed forecasting studies have focused on single models, which leads to poor prediction accuracy. In this paper, a new hybrid model is proposed to overcome the shortcoming of single models by combining singular spectrum analysis, modified intelligent optimization, and the rolling Elman neural network. In this model, except for the multiple seasonal patterns used to reduce interferences from the original data, the rolling model is utilized to forecast the multistep wind speed. To verify the forecasting ability of the proposed hybrid model, 10 min and 60 min wind speed data from the province of Shandong, China, were proposed in this paper as the case study. Compared to the other models, the proposed hybrid model forecasts the wind speed with higher accuracy.

  9. WSN system design by using an innovative neural network model to perform thermals forecasting in a urban canyon scenario

    Science.gov (United States)

    Giuseppina, Nicolosi; Salvatore, Tirrito

    2015-12-01

    Wireless Sensor Networks (WSNs) were studied by researchers in order to manage Heating, Ventilating and Air-Conditioning (HVAC) indoor systems. WSN can be useful specially to regulate indoor confort in a urban canyon scenario, where the thermal parameters vary rapidly, influenced by outdoor climate changing. This paper shows an innovative neural network approach, by using WSN data collected, in order to forecast the indoor temperature to varying the outdoor conditions based on climate parameters and boundary conditions typically of urban canyon. In this work more attention will be done to influence of traffic jam and number of vehicles in queue.

  10. Experimental Analysis of the Input Variables’ Relevance to Forecast Next Day’s Aggregated Electric Demand Using Neural Networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pablo García

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available Thanks to the built in intelligence (deployment of new intelligent devices and sensors in places where historically they were not present, the Smart Grid and Microgrid paradigms are able to take advantage from aggregated load forecasting, which opens the door for the implementation of new algorithms to seize this information for optimization and advanced planning. Therefore, accuracy in load forecasts will potentially have a big impact on key operation factors for the future Smart Grid/Microgrid-based energy network like user satisfaction and resource saving, and new methods to achieve an efficient prediction in future energy landscapes (very different from the centralized, big area networks studied so far. This paper proposes different improved models to forecast next day’s aggregated load using artificial neural networks, taking into account the variables that are most relevant for the aggregated. In particular, seven models based on the multilayer perceptron will be proposed, progressively adding input variables after analyzing the influence of climate factors on aggregated load. The results section presents the forecast from the proposed models, obtained from real data.

  11. Reduction of the dimension of neural network models in problems of pattern recognition and forecasting

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nasertdinova, A. D.; Bochkarev, V. V.

    2017-11-01

    Deep neural networks with a large number of parameters are a powerful tool for solving problems of pattern recognition, prediction and classification. Nevertheless, overfitting remains a serious problem in the use of such networks. A method of solving the problem of overfitting is proposed in this article. This method is based on reducing the number of independent parameters of a neural network model using the principal component analysis, and can be implemented using existing libraries of neural computing. The algorithm was tested on the problem of recognition of handwritten symbols from the MNIST database, as well as on the task of predicting time series (rows of the average monthly number of sunspots and series of the Lorentz system were used). It is shown that the application of the principal component analysis enables reducing the number of parameters of the neural network model when the results are good. The average error rate for the recognition of handwritten figures from the MNIST database was 1.12% (which is comparable to the results obtained using the "Deep training" methods), while the number of parameters of the neural network can be reduced to 130 times.

  12. Improved Short-Term Load Forecasting Based on Two-Stage Predictions with Artificial Neural Networks in a Microgrid Environment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jaime Lloret

    2013-08-01

    Full Text Available Short-Term Load Forecasting plays a significant role in energy generation planning, and is specially gaining momentum in the emerging Smart Grids environment, which usually presents highly disaggregated scenarios where detailed real-time information is available thanks to Communications and Information Technologies, as it happens for example in the case of microgrids. This paper presents a two stage prediction model based on an Artificial Neural Network in order to allow Short-Term Load Forecasting of the following day in microgrid environment, which first estimates peak and valley values of the demand curve of the day to be forecasted. Those, together with other variables, will make the second stage, forecast of the entire demand curve, more precise than a direct, single-stage forecast. The whole architecture of the model will be presented and the results compared with recent work on the same set of data, and on the same location, obtaining a Mean Absolute Percentage Error of 1.62% against the original 2.47% of the single stage model.

  13. Application of a deep-learning method to the forecast of daily solar flare occurrence using Convolution Neural Network

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shin, Seulki; Moon, Yong-Jae; Chu, Hyoungseok

    2017-08-01

    As the application of deep-learning methods has been succeeded in various fields, they have a high potential to be applied to space weather forecasting. Convolutional neural network, one of deep learning methods, is specialized in image recognition. In this study, we apply the AlexNet architecture, which is a winner of Imagenet Large Scale Virtual Recognition Challenge (ILSVRC) 2012, to the forecast of daily solar flare occurrence using the MatConvNet software of MATLAB. Our input images are SOHO/MDI, EIT 195Å, and 304Å from January 1996 to December 2010, and output ones are yes or no of flare occurrence. We select training dataset from Jan 1996 to Dec 2000 and from Jan 2003 to Dec 2008. Testing dataset is chosen from Jan 2001 to Dec 2002 and from Jan 2009 to Dec 2010 in order to consider the solar cycle effect. In training dataset, we randomly select one fifth of training data for validation dataset to avoid the overfitting problem. Our model successfully forecasts the flare occurrence with about 0.90 probability of detection (POD) for common flares (C-, M-, and X-class). While POD of major flares (M- and X-class) forecasting is 0.96, false alarm rate (FAR) also scores relatively high(0.60). We also present several statistical parameters such as critical success index (CSI) and true skill statistics (TSS). Our model can immediately be applied to automatic forecasting service when image data are available.

  14. The Use of Neural Network and Portfolio Analysis in Forecasting Share Prices at the Stock Exchange

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Przemyslaw Stochel

    2000-01-01

    Full Text Available The article presents the use of neural networks in decision making process on the capital market. The author tried to show the efficiency of established solution in Polish reality which features different conditions in comparison with the markets of higher developed countries. The aim of the paper was to prove that neural networks are flexible tools which on one hand might be adjusted to investor's requirements and on the other, can reduce equirements to his experience. The article is based on the author's own research carried out by modelling neural network operation with a simulation program. The established solutions are input which employs stocks portfolio computed on the basis of Markowitz portfolio theory and Sharpe's model. According to the established propositions, the portfolio created in such a way is modified by neutral network in order to optimise a criterion which maximises the income of such a modified portfolio. A detailed genesis of the established input vector and network structure are presented. It allows the reader to carry out his own research and create his own attitude towards applied values. The research results based on a real stock market database with the use of one-output networks predicting thc price of a single company - Agros as well as networks predicting the desirable structure of the whole portfolio are presented. The effect of the network structure leaming parameters, input vector (not only as to the input quantity but also as to period of time they were collected was examined. The dependence between the factors mentioned above such as input vector and network structure were discussed. lt seems that the presented paper has proved that some not widely spread methods with neural networks can become at competitive tool to optimisation methods.

  15. Topsoil pollution forecasting using artificial neural networks on the example of the abnormally distributed heavy metal at Russian subarctic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tarasov, D. A.; Buevich, A. G.; Sergeev, A. P.; Shichkin, A. V.; Baglaeva, E. M.

    2017-06-01

    Forecasting the soil pollution is a considerable field of study in the light of the general concern of environmental protection issues. Due to the variation of content and spatial heterogeneity of pollutants distribution at urban areas, the conventional spatial interpolation models implemented in many GIS packages mostly cannot provide appreciate interpolation accuracy. Moreover, the problem of prediction the distribution of the element with high variability in the concentration at the study site is particularly difficult. The work presents two neural networks models forecasting a spatial content of the abnormally distributed soil pollutant (Cr) at a particular location of the subarctic Novy Urengoy, Russia. A method of generalized regression neural network (GRNN) was compared to a common multilayer perceptron (MLP) model. The proposed techniques have been built, implemented and tested using ArcGIS and MATLAB. To verify the models performances, 150 scattered input data points (pollutant concentrations) have been selected from 8.5 km2 area and then split into independent training data set (105 points) and validation data set (45 points). The training data set was generated for the interpolation using ordinary kriging while the validation data set was used to test their accuracies. The networks structures have been chosen during a computer simulation based on the minimization of the RMSE. The predictive accuracy of both models was confirmed to be significantly higher than those achieved by the geostatistical approach (kriging). It is shown that MLP could achieve better accuracy than both kriging and even GRNN for interpolating surfaces.

  16. Using NCAR Yellowstone for PhotoVoltaic Power Forecasts with Artificial Neural Networks and an Analog Ensemble

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cervone, G.; Clemente-Harding, L.; Alessandrini, S.; Delle Monache, L.

    2016-12-01

    A methodology based on Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) and an Analog Ensemble (AnEn) is presented to generate 72-hour deterministic and probabilistic forecasts of power generated by photovoltaic (PV) power plants using input from a numerical weather prediction model and computed astronomical variables. ANN and AnEn are used individually and in combination to generate forecasts for three solar power plant located in Italy. The computational scalability of the proposed solution is tested using synthetic data simulating 4,450 PV power stations. The NCAR Yellowstone supercomputer is employed to test the parallel implementation of the proposed solution, ranging from 1 node (32 cores) to 4,450 nodes (141,140 cores). Results show that a combined AnEn + ANN solution yields best results, and that the proposed solution is well suited for massive scale computation.

  17. Multi nodal load forecasting in electric power systems using a radial basis neural network; Previsao de carga multinodal em sistemas eletricos de potencia usando uma rede neural de base radial

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Altran, A.B.; Lotufo, A.D.P.; Minussi, C.R. [Universidade Estadual Paulista Julio de Mesquita Filho (UNESP), Ilha Solteira, SP (Brazil). Dept. de Engenharia Eletrica], Emails: lealtran@yahoo.com.br, annadiva@dee.feis.unesp.br, minussi@dee.feis.unesp.br; Lopes, M.L.M. [Universidade Estadual Paulista Julio de Mesquita Filho (UNESP), Ilha Solteira, SP (Brazil). Dept. de Matematica], E-mail: mara@mat.feis.unesp.br

    2009-07-01

    This paper presents a methodology for electrical load forecasting, using radial base functions as activation function in artificial neural networks with the training by backpropagation algorithm. This methodology is applied to short term electrical load forecasting (24 h ahead). Therefore, results are presented analyzing the use of radial base functions substituting the sigmoid function as activation function in multilayer perceptron neural networks. However, the main contribution of this paper is the proposal of a new formulation of load forecasting dedicated to the forecasting in several points of the electrical network, as well as considering several types of users (residential, commercial, industrial). It deals with the MLF (Multimodal Load Forecasting), with the same processing time as the GLF (Global Load Forecasting). (author)

  18. Forecasts for the Canadian Lynx time series using method that bombine neural networks, wavelet shrinkage and decomposition

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Levi Lopes Teixeira

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Time series forecasting is widely used in various areas of human knowledge, especially in the planning and strategic direction of companies. The success of this task depends on the forecasting techniques applied. In this paper, a hybrid approach to project time series is suggested. To validate the methodology, a time series already modeled by other authors was chosen, allowing the comparison of results. The proposed methodology includes the following techniques: wavelet shrinkage, wavelet decomposition at level r, and artificial neural networks (ANN. Firstly, a time series to be forecasted is submitted to the proposed wavelet filtering method, which decomposes it to components of trend and linear residue. Then, both are decomposed via level r wavelet decomposition, generating r + 1 Wavelet Components (WCs for each one; and then each WC is individually modeled by an ANN. Finally, the predictions for all WCs are linearly combined, producing forecasts to the underlying time series. For evaluating purposes, the time series of Canadian Lynx has been used, and all results achieved by the proposed method were better than others in existing literature.

  19. Wind Power Forecasting Using Multi-Objective Evolutionary Algorithms for Wavelet Neural Network-Optimized Prediction Intervals

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yanxia Shen

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available The intermittency of renewable energy will increase the uncertainty of the power system, so it is necessary to predict the short-term wind power, after which the electrical power system can operate reliably and safely. Unlike the traditional point forecasting, the purpose of this study is to quantify the potential uncertainties of wind power and to construct prediction intervals (PIs and prediction models using wavelet neural network (WNN. Lower upper bound estimation (LUBE of the PIs is achieved by minimizing a multi-objective function covering both interval width and coverage probabilities. Considering the influence of the points out of the PIs to shorten the width of PIs without compromising coverage probability, a new, improved, multi-objective artificial bee colony (MOABC algorithm combining multi-objective evolutionary knowledge, called EKMOABC, is proposed for the optimization of the forecasting model. In this paper, some comparative simulations are carried out and the results show that the proposed model and algorithm can achieve higher quality PIs for wind power forecasting. Taking into account the intermittency of renewable energy, such a type of wind power forecast can actually provide a more reliable reference for dispatching of the power system.

  20. Non-Linearity Explanation in Artificial Neural Network Application with a Case Study of Fog Forecast Over Delhi Region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saurabh, K.; Dimri, A. P.

    2016-05-01

    Fog affects human life in a number of ways by reducing the visibility, hence affecting critical infrastructure, transportation, tourism or by the formation of frost, thus harming the standing crops. Smog is becoming a regular phenomenon in urban areas which is highly toxic to humans. Delhi was chosen as the area of study as it encounters all these hazards of fog stated apart from other political and economic reasons. The complex relationship behind the parameters and processes behind the formation of fog makes it extremely difficult to model and forecast it accurately. It is attempted to forecast the fog and understand its dynamics through a statistical downscaling technique of artificial neural network which is deemed accurate for short-term forecasting and usually outperform time-series models. The backpropagation neural network, which is a gradient descent algorithm where the network weights are moved along the negative of the gradient of the performance function, has been used for our analysis. Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) supported National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) data had been used for carrying out the simulations. The model was found to have high accuracy but lacking in skill. An attempt has been made to present the data in a binary form by determining a threshold by the contingency table approach followed by its critical analysis. It is found that the calculation of an optimum threshold was also difficult to fix as the parameters of fog formation on which the model has been has been trained had shown some changes in their trend over a period of time.

  1. ECG Prediction Based on Classification via Neural Networks and Linguistic Fuzzy Logic Forecaster.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Volna, Eva; Kotyrba, Martin; Habiballa, Hashim

    2015-01-01

    The paper deals with ECG prediction based on neural networks classification of different types of time courses of ECG signals. The main objective is to recognise normal cycles and arrhythmias and perform further diagnosis. We proposed two detection systems that have been created with usage of neural networks. The experimental part makes it possible to load ECG signals, preprocess them, and classify them into given classes. Outputs from the classifiers carry a predictive character. All experimental results from both of the proposed classifiers are mutually compared in the conclusion. We also experimented with the new method of time series transparent prediction based on fuzzy transform with linguistic IF-THEN rules. Preliminary results show interesting results based on the unique capability of this approach bringing natural language interpretation of particular prediction, that is, the properties of time series.

  2. ECG Prediction Based on Classification via Neural Networks and Linguistic Fuzzy Logic Forecaster

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eva Volna

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The paper deals with ECG prediction based on neural networks classification of different types of time courses of ECG signals. The main objective is to recognise normal cycles and arrhythmias and perform further diagnosis. We proposed two detection systems that have been created with usage of neural networks. The experimental part makes it possible to load ECG signals, preprocess them, and classify them into given classes. Outputs from the classifiers carry a predictive character. All experimental results from both of the proposed classifiers are mutually compared in the conclusion. We also experimented with the new method of time series transparent prediction based on fuzzy transform with linguistic IF-THEN rules. Preliminary results show interesting results based on the unique capability of this approach bringing natural language interpretation of particular prediction, that is, the properties of time series.

  3. Identification of the actual state and entity availability forecasting in power engineering using neural-network technologies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Protalinsky, O. M.; Shcherbatov, I. A.; Stepanov, P. V.

    2017-11-01

    A growing number of severe accidents in RF call for the need to develop a system that could prevent emergency situations. In a number of cases accident rate is stipulated by careless inspections and neglects in developing repair programs. Across the country rates of accidents are growing because of a so-called “human factor”. In this regard, there has become urgent the problem of identification of the actual state of technological facilities in power engineering using data on engineering processes running and applying artificial intelligence methods. The present work comprises four model states of manufacturing equipment of engineering companies: defect, failure, preliminary situation, accident. Defect evaluation is carried out using both data from SCADA and ASEPCR and qualitative information (verbal assessments of experts in subject matter, photo- and video materials of surveys processed using pattern recognition methods in order to satisfy the requirements). Early identification of defects makes possible to predict the failure of manufacturing equipment using mathematical techniques of artificial neural network. In its turn, this helps to calculate predicted characteristics of reliability of engineering facilities using methods of reliability theory. Calculation of the given parameters provides the real-time estimation of remaining service life of manufacturing equipment for the whole operation period. The neural networks model allows evaluating possibility of failure of a piece of equipment consistent with types of actual defects and their previous reasons. The article presents the grounds for a choice of training and testing samples for the developed neural network, evaluates the adequacy of the neural networks model, and shows how the model can be used to forecast equipment failure. There have been carried out simulating experiments using a computer and retrospective samples of actual values for power engineering companies. The efficiency of the developed

  4. Multi-scale quantitative precipitation forecasting using nonlinear and nonstationary teleconnection signals and artificial neural network models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chang, Ni-Bin; Yang, Y. Jeffrey; Imen, Sanaz; Mullon, Lee

    2017-05-01

    Global sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies are observed to have a significant effect on terrestrial precipitation patterns throughout the United States. SST variations have been correlated with terrestrial precipitation via ocean-atmospheric interactions known as climate teleconnections. This study demonstrates how the scale effect could affect the forecasting accuracy with or without the inclusion of those newly discovered unknown teleconnection signals between Adirondack precipitation and SST anomaly in the Atlantic and Pacific oceans. Unique SST regions of both known and unknown telecommunication signals were extracted from the wavelet analysis and used as input variables in an artificial neural network (ANN) forecasting model. Monthly and seasonal scales were considered with respect to a host of long-term (30-year) nonlinear and nonstationary teleconnection signals detected locally at the study site of Adirondack. Similar intra-annual time-lag effects of SST on precipitation variability are salient at both time scales. Sensitivity analysis of four scenarios reveals that more improvements of the forecasting accuracy of the ANN model can be observed by including both known and unknown teleconnection patterns at both time scales, although such improvements are not salient. Research findings also highlight the importance of choosing the forecasting model at the seasonal scale to predict more accurate peak values and global trends of terrestrial precipitation in response to teleconnection signals. The scale shift from monthly to seasonal may improve results by 17% and 17 mm/day in terms of R squared and root of mean square error values, respectively, if both known and unknown SST regions are considered for forecasting.

  5. Neural Network-based Load Forecasting and Error Implication for Short-term Horizon

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Khuntia, S.R.; Rueda Torres, José L.; van der Meijden, M.A.M.M.

    2016-01-01

    Load forecasting is considered vital along with many other important entities required for assessing the reliability of power system. Thus, the primary concern is not to forecast load with a novel model, rather to forecast load with the highest accuracy. Short-term load forecast accuracy is often

  6. Forecasting of UV-Vis absorbance time series using artificial neural networks combined with principal component analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Plazas-Nossa, Leonardo; Hofer, Thomas; Gruber, Günter; Torres, Andres

    2017-02-01

    This work proposes a methodology for the forecasting of online water quality data provided by UV-Vis spectrometry. Therefore, a combination of principal component analysis (PCA) to reduce the dimensionality of a data set and artificial neural networks (ANNs) for forecasting purposes was used. The results obtained were compared with those obtained by using discrete Fourier transform (DFT). The proposed methodology was applied to four absorbance time series data sets composed by a total number of 5705 UV-Vis spectra. Absolute percentage errors obtained by applying the proposed PCA/ANN methodology vary between 10% and 13% for all four study sites. In general terms, the results obtained were hardly generalizable, as they appeared to be highly dependent on specific dynamics of the water system; however, some trends can be outlined. PCA/ANN methodology gives better results than PCA/DFT forecasting procedure by using a specific spectra range for the following conditions: (i) for Salitre wastewater treatment plant (WWTP) (first hour) and Graz West R05 (first 18 min), from the last part of UV range to all visible range; (ii) for Gibraltar pumping station (first 6 min) for all UV-Vis absorbance spectra; and (iii) for San Fernando WWTP (first 24 min) for all of UV range to middle part of visible range.

  7. INDIA’S ELECTRICITY DEMAND FORECAST USING REGRESSION ANALYSIS AND ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORKS BASED ON PRINCIPAL COMPONENTS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Saravanan

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available Power System planning starts with Electric load (demand forecasting. Accurate electricity load forecasting is one of the most important challenges in managing supply and demand of the electricity, since the electricity demand is volatile in nature; it cannot be stored and has to be consumed instantly. The aim of this study deals with electricity consumption in India, to forecast future projection of demand for a period of 19 years from 2012 to 2030. The eleven input variables used are Amount of CO2 emission, Population, Per capita GDP, Per capita gross national income, Gross Domestic savings, Industry, Consumer price index, Wholesale price index, Imports, Exports and Per capita power consumption. A new methodology based on Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs using principal components is also used. Data of 29 years used for training and data of 10 years used for testing the ANNs. Comparison made with multiple linear regression (based on original data and the principal components and ANNs with original data as input variables. The results show that the use of ANNs with principal components (PC is more effective.

  8. Development and application of Artificial Neural Networks in the forecast of maximum daily precipitation at Athens, Greece

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nastos, P. T.; Paliatsos, A. G.; Larissi, I. K.; Moustris, K. P.

    2010-09-01

    Extreme daily precipitation events are involved in significant environmental damages, because of causing adverse impacts, such as flash floods, in urban and even in rural areas. Thus, long-term forecast of such events is of great importance, in order the local authorities be prepared to confront and mitigate the adverse consequences. The objective of this study is the possibility to forecast the maximum daily precipitation for the next coming year. For this reason, appropriate prognostic models, such as Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) were developed and applied. The data used for the analysis concern daily precipitation totals, which have been recorded at National Observatory of Athens (NOA), during the period 1891-2009. To evaluate the potential of precipitation prediction by the trained ANNs, a different period was used than the one used for the training for each station. The datasets of the period 1891-1980 were used as training datasets, while the datasets of the period 1981-2009 were used as validation datasets. Appropriate statistical indexes, such as the coefficient of determination (R2), the index of agreement (IA) and the root mean square error (RMSE), were applied to test the reliability of the predictive models. The findings of the analysis showed that, the forecasted maximum daily precipitation totals for the next coming year compared to the respective original ones indicated a quite satisfactory relationship, at the statistically significant level p<0.01.

  9. Forecasting Volatility in Indian Stock Market using Artificial Neural Network with Multiple Inputs and Outputs

    Science.gov (United States)

    DattaChaudhuri, Tamal; Ghosh, Indranil

    2015-06-01

    Volatility in stock markets has been extensively studied in the applied finance literature. In this paper, Artificial Neural Network models based on various back propagation algorithms have been constructed to predict volatility in the Indian stock market through volatility of NIFTY returns and volatility of gold returns. This model considers India VIX, CBOE VIX, volatility of crude oil returns (CRUDESDR), volatility of DJIA returns (DJIASDR), volatility of DAX returns (DAXSDR), volatility of Hang Seng returns (HANGSDR) and volatility of Nikkei returns (NIKKEISDR) as predictor variables. Three sets of experiments have been performed over three time periods to judge the effectiveness of the approach.

  10. Application of Statistical, Fuzzy and Perceptron Neural Networks in Drought Forecasting (Case Study: Gonbad-e Kavous Station

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S.M. Hosseini-Moghari

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: Due to economic, social, and environmental perplexities associated with drought, it is considered as one of the most complex natural hazards. To investigate the beginning along with analyzing the direct impacts of drought; the significance of drought monitoring must be highlighted. Regarding drought management and its consequences alleviation, drought forecasting must be taken into account (11. The current research employed multi-layer perceptron (MLP, adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS, radial basis function (RBF and general regression neural network (GRNN. It is interesting to note that, there has not been any record of applying GRNN in drought forecasting. Materials and Methods: Throughout this paper, Standard Precipitation Index (SPI was the basis of drought forecasting. To do so, the precipitation data of Gonbad Kavous station during the period of 1972-73 to 2006-07 were used. To provide short-term, mid-term, and long-term drought analysis; SPI for 1, 3, 6, 9, 12, and 24 months was evaluated. SPI evaluation benefited from four statistical distributions, namely, Gamma, Normal, Log-normal, and Weibull along with Kolmogrov-Smirnov (K-S test. Later, to compare the capabilities of four utilized neural networks for drought forecasting; MLP, ANFIS, RBF, and GRNN were applied. MLP as a multi-layer network, which has a sigmoid activation function in hidden layer plus linear function in output layer, can be considered as a powerful regressive tool. ANFIS besides adaptive neuro networks, employed fuzzy logic. RBF, the foundation of radial basis networks, is a three-layer network with Gaussian function in its hidden layer, and a linear function in the output layer. GRNN is another type of RBF which is used for radial basis regressive problems. The performance criteria of the research were as follows: Correlation (R2, Root Mean Square Error (RMSE, Mean Absolute Error (MAE. Results Discussion: According to statistical distribution

  11. A Neural Network Classifier Model for Forecasting Safety Behavior at Workplaces

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fakhradin Ghasemi

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available The construction industry is notorious for having an unacceptable rate of fatal accidents. Unsafe behavior has been recognized as the main cause of most accidents occurring at workplaces, particularly construction sites. Having a predictive model of safety behavior can be helpful in preventing construction accidents. The aim of the present study was to build a predictive model of unsafe behavior using the Artificial Neural Network approach. A brief literature review was conducted on factors affecting safe behavior at workplaces and nine factors were selected to be included in the study. Data were gathered using a validated questionnaire from several construction sites. Multilayer perceptron approach was utilized for constructing the desired neural network. Several models with various architectures were tested to find the best one. Sensitivity analysis was conducted to find the most influential factors. The model with one hidden layer containing fourteen hidden neurons demonstrated the best performance (Sum of Squared Errors=6.73. The error rate of the model was approximately 21 percent. The results of sensitivity analysis showed that safety attitude, safety knowledge, supportive environment, and management commitment had the highest effects on safety behavior, while the effects from resource allocation and perceived work pressure were identified to be lower than those of others. The complex nature of human behavior at workplaces and the presence of many influential factors make it difficult to achieve a model with perfect performance.

  12. Software Development Cost and Time Forecasting Using a High Performance Artificial Neural Network Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Attarzadeh, Iman; Ow, Siew Hock

    Nowadays, mature software companies are more interested to have a precise estimation of software metrics such as project time, cost, quality, and risk at the early stages of software development process. The ability to precisely estimate project time and costs by project managers is one of the essential tasks in software development activities, and it named software effort estimation. The estimated effort at the early stage of project development process is uncertain, vague, and often the least accurate. It is because that very little information is available at the beginning stage of project. Therefore, a reliable and precise effort estimation model is an ongoing challenge for project managers and software engineers. This research work proposes a novel soft computing model incorporating Constructive Cost Model (COCOMO) to improve the precision of software time and cost estimation. The proposed artificial neural network model has good generalisation, adaption capability, and it can be interpreted and validated by software engineers. The experimental results show that applying the desirable features of artificial neural networks on the algorithmic estimation model improves the accuracy of time and cost estimation and estimated effort can be very close to the actual effort.

  13. Monthly evaporation forecasting using artificial neural networks and support vector machines

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tezel, Gulay; Buyukyildiz, Meral

    2016-04-01

    Evaporation is one of the most important components of the hydrological cycle, but is relatively difficult to estimate, due to its complexity, as it can be influenced by numerous factors. Estimation of evaporation is important for the design of reservoirs, especially in arid and semi-arid areas. Artificial neural network methods and support vector machines (SVM) are frequently utilized to estimate evaporation and other hydrological variables. In this study, usability of artificial neural networks (ANNs) (multilayer perceptron (MLP) and radial basis function network (RBFN)) and ɛ-support vector regression (SVR) artificial intelligence methods was investigated to estimate monthly pan evaporation. For this aim, temperature, relative humidity, wind speed, and precipitation data for the period 1972 to 2005 from Beysehir meteorology station were used as input variables while pan evaporation values were used as output. The Romanenko and Meyer method was also considered for the comparison. The results were compared with observed class A pan evaporation data. In MLP method, four different training algorithms, gradient descent with momentum and adaptive learning rule backpropagation (GDX), Levenberg-Marquardt (LVM), scaled conjugate gradient (SCG), and resilient backpropagation (RBP), were used. Also, ɛ-SVR model was used as SVR model. The models were designed via 10-fold cross-validation (CV); algorithm performance was assessed via mean absolute error (MAE), root mean square error (RMSE), and coefficient of determination (R 2). According to the performance criteria, the ANN algorithms and ɛ-SVR had similar results. The ANNs and ɛ-SVR methods were found to perform better than the Romanenko and Meyer methods. Consequently, the best performance using the test data was obtained using SCG(4,2,2,1) with R 2 = 0.905.

  14. Predicting the Water Level Fluctuation in an Alpine Lake Using Physically Based, Artificial Neural Network, and Time Series Forecasting Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chih-Chieh Young

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Accurate prediction of water level fluctuation is important in lake management due to its significant impacts in various aspects. This study utilizes four model approaches to predict water levels in the Yuan-Yang Lake (YYL in Taiwan: a three-dimensional hydrodynamic model, an artificial neural network (ANN model (back propagation neural network, BPNN, a time series forecasting (autoregressive moving average with exogenous inputs, ARMAX model, and a combined hydrodynamic and ANN model. Particularly, the black-box ANN model and physically based hydrodynamic model are coupled to more accurately predict water level fluctuation. Hourly water level data (a total of 7296 observations was collected for model calibration (training and validation. Three statistical indicators (mean absolute error, root mean square error, and coefficient of correlation were adopted to evaluate model performances. Overall, the results demonstrate that the hydrodynamic model can satisfactorily predict hourly water level changes during the calibration stage but not for the validation stage. The ANN and ARMAX models better predict the water level than the hydrodynamic model does. Meanwhile, the results from an ANN model are superior to those by the ARMAX model in both training and validation phases. The novel proposed concept using a three-dimensional hydrodynamic model in conjunction with an ANN model has clearly shown the improved prediction accuracy for the water level fluctuation.

  15. Using additional external inputs to forecast water quality with an artificial neural network for contamination event detection in source water

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schmidt, F.; Liu, S.

    2016-12-01

    Source water quality plays an important role for the safety of drinking water and early detection of its contamination is vital to taking appropriate countermeasures. However, compared to drinking water, it is more difficult to detect contamination events because its environment is less controlled and numerous natural causes contribute to a high variability of the background values. In this project, Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) and a Contamination Event Detection Process (CED Process) were used to identify events in river water. The ANN models the response of basic water quality sensors obtained in laboratory experiments in an off-line learning stage and continuously forecasts future values of the time line in an on-line forecasting step. During this second stage, the CED Process compares the forecast to the measured value and classifies it as regular background or event value, which modifies the ANN's continuous learning and influences its forecasts. In addition to this basic setup, external information is fed to the CED Process: A so-called Operator Input (OI) is provided to inform about unusual water quality levels that are unrelated to the presence of contamination, for example due to cooling water discharge from a nearby power plant. This study's primary goal is to evaluate how well the OI fits into the design of the combined forecasting ANN and CED Process and to understand its effects on the online forecasting stage. To test this, data from laboratory experiments conducted previously at the School of Environment, Tsinghua University, have been used to perform simulations highlighting features and drawbacks of this method. Applying the OI has been shown to have a positive influence on the ANN's ability to handle a sudden change in background values, which is unrelated to contamination. However, it might also mask the presence of an event, an issue that underlines the necessity to have several instances of the algorithm run in parallel. Other difficulties

  16. Time-dependent prediction degredation assessment of neural-networks-based TEC forecasting models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Th. D. Xenos

    2003-01-01

    Full Text Available An estimation of the difference in TEC prediction accuracy achieved when the prediction varies from 1 h to 7 days in advance is described using classical neural networks. Hourly-daily Faraday-rotation derived TEC measurements from Florence are used. It is shown that the prediction accuracy for the examined dataset, though degrading when time span increases, is always high. In fact, when a relative prediction error margin of ± 10% is considered, the population percentage included therein is almost always well above the 55%. It is found that the results are highly dependent on season and the dataset wealth, whereas they highly depend on the foF2 - TEC variability difference and on hysteresis-like effect between these two ionospheric characteristics.

  17. Forecasting Daily and Sessional Returns of the ISE-100 Index with Neural Network Models = Yapay Sinir Ağları Modelleri ile İMKB-100 Endeksinin Günlük ve Seanslık Getirilerinin Tahmin Edilmesi

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Emin AVCI

    2007-06-01

    Full Text Available Especially for the last decade, the neural network models have been applied to solve financial problems like portfolio construction and stock market forecasting. Among the alternative neural network models, the multilayer perceptron models are expected to be effective and widely applied in financial forecasting. This study examines the forecasting power multilayer perceptron models for daily and sessional returns of ISE-100 index. The findings imply that the multilayer perceptron models presented promising performance in forecasting the ISE-100 index returns. However, further emphasis should be placed on different input variables and model architectures in order to improve the forecasting performances.

  18. Application of Convolution Neural Network to the forecasts of flare classification and occurrence using SOHO MDI data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Park, Eunsu; Moon, Yong-Jae

    2017-08-01

    A Convolutional Neural Network(CNN) is one of the well-known deep-learning methods in image processing and computer vision area. In this study, we apply CNN to two kinds of flare forecasting models: flare classification and occurrence. For this, we consider several pre-trained models (e.g., AlexNet, GoogLeNet, and ResNet) and customize them by changing several options such as the number of layers, activation function, and optimizer. Our inputs are the same number of SOHO)/MDI images for each flare class (None, C, M and X) at 00:00 UT from Jan 1996 to Dec 2010 (total 1600 images). Outputs are the results of daily flare forecasting for flare class and occurrence. We build, train, and test the models on TensorFlow, which is well-known machine learning software library developed by Google. Our major results from this study are as follows. First, most of the models have accuracies more than 0.7. Second, ResNet developed by Microsoft has the best accuracies : 0.86 for flare classification and 0.84 for flare occurrence. Third, the accuracies of these models vary greatly with changing parameters. We discuss several possibilities to improve the models.

  19. Application of artificial neural network model for groundwater level forecasting in a river island with artificial influencing factors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Sanghoon; Yoon, Heesung; Park, Byeong-Hak; Lee, Kang-Kun

    2017-04-01

    Groundwater use has been increased for various purposes like agriculture, industry or drinking water in recent years, the issue related to sustainability on the groundwater use also has been raised. Accordingly, forecasting the groundwater level is of great importance for planning sustainable use of groundwater. In a small island surrounded by the Han River, South Korea, seasonal fluctuation of the groundwater level is characterized by multiple factors such as recharge/discharge event of the Paldang dam, Water Curtain Cultivation (WCC) during the winter season, operation of Groundwater Heat Pump System (GWHP). For a period when the dam operation is only occurred in the study area, a prediction of the groundwater level can be easily achieved by a simple cross-correlation model. However, for a period when the WCC and the GWHP systems are working together, the groundwater level prediction is challenging due to its unpredictable operation of the two systems. This study performed Artificial Neural Network (ANN) model to forecast the groundwater level in the river area reflecting the various predictable/unpredictable factors. For constructing the ANN models, two monitoring wells, YSN1 and YSO8, which are located near the injection and abstraction wells for the GWHP system were selected, respectively. By training with the groundwater level data measured in January 2015 to August 2015, response of groundwater level by each of the surface water level, the WCC and the GWHP system were evaluated. Consequentially, groundwater levels in December 2015 to March 2016 were predicted by ANN models, providing optimal fits in comparison to the observed water levels. This study suggests that the ANN model is a useful tool to forecast the groundwater level in terms of the management of groundwater. Acknowledgement : Financial support was provided by the "R&D Project on Environmental Management of Geologic CO2 Storage" from the KEITI (Project Number: 2014001810003) This research was

  20. Application of Artificial Neural Network Forecasts to Predict Fog at Canberra International Airport

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Fabbian, Dustin; de Dear, Richard; Lellyett, Stephen

    2007-01-01

    ... obtained from the Australian Bureau of Meteorology was used to develop, train, test, and validate ANNs designed to predict log occurrence. Fog forecasting aids were developed for 3-, 6-, 12-, a...

  1. Neural Networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Schwindling Jerome

    2010-04-01

    Full Text Available This course presents an overview of the concepts of the neural networks and their aplication in the framework of High energy physics analyses. After a brief introduction on the concept of neural networks, the concept is explained in the frame of neuro-biology, introducing the concept of multi-layer perceptron, learning and their use as data classifer. The concept is then presented in a second part using in more details the mathematical approach focussing on typical use cases faced in particle physics. Finally, the last part presents the best way to use such statistical tools in view of event classifers, putting the emphasis on the setup of the multi-layer perceptron. The full article (15 p. corresponding to this lecture is written in french and is provided in the proceedings of the book SOS 2008.

  2. Day-Ahead PM2.5 Concentration Forecasting Using WT-VMD Based Decomposition Method and Back Propagation Neural Network Improved by Differential Evolution

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Deyun; Liu, Yanling; Luo, Hongyuan; Yue, Chenqiang; Cheng, Sheng

    2017-01-01

    Accurate PM2.5 concentration forecasting is crucial for protecting public health and atmospheric environment. However, the intermittent and unstable nature of PM2.5 concentration series makes its forecasting become a very difficult task. In order to improve the forecast accuracy of PM2.5 concentration, this paper proposes a hybrid model based on wavelet transform (WT), variational mode decomposition (VMD) and back propagation (BP) neural network optimized by differential evolution (DE) algorithm. Firstly, WT is employed to disassemble the PM2.5 concentration series into a number of subsets with different frequencies. Secondly, VMD is applied to decompose each subset into a set of variational modes (VMs). Thirdly, DE-BP model is utilized to forecast all the VMs. Fourthly, the forecast value of each subset is obtained through aggregating the forecast results of all the VMs obtained from VMD decomposition of this subset. Finally, the final forecast series of PM2.5 concentration is obtained by adding up the forecast values of all subsets. Two PM2.5 concentration series collected from Wuhan and Tianjin, respectively, located in China are used to test the effectiveness of the proposed model. The results demonstrate that the proposed model outperforms all the other considered models in this paper. PMID:28704955

  3. Neural network river forecasting through baseflow separation and binary-coded swarm optimization

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taormina, Riccardo; Chau, Kwok-Wing; Sivakumar, Bellie

    2015-10-01

    The inclusion of expert knowledge in data-driven streamflow modeling is expected to yield more accurate estimates of river quantities. Modular models (MMs) designed to work on different parts of the hydrograph are preferred ways to implement such approach. Previous studies have suggested that better predictions of total streamflow could be obtained via modular Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) trained to perform an implicit baseflow separation. These MMs fit separately the baseflow and excess flow components as produced by a digital filter, and reconstruct the total flow by adding these two signals at the output. The optimization of the filter parameters and ANN architectures is carried out through global search techniques. Despite the favorable premises, the real effectiveness of such MMs has been tested only on a few case studies, and the quality of the baseflow separation they perform has never been thoroughly assessed. In this work, we compare the performance of MM against global models (GMs) for nine different gaging stations in the northern United States. Binary-coded swarm optimization is employed for the identification of filter parameters and model structure, while Extreme Learning Machines, instead of ANN, are used to drastically reduce the large computational times required to perform the experiments. The results show that there is no evidence that MM outperform global GM for predicting the total flow. In addition, the baseflow produced by the MM largely underestimates the actual baseflow component expected for most of the considered gages. This occurs because the values of the filter parameters maximizing overall accuracy do not reflect the geological characteristics of the river basins. The results indeed show that setting the filter parameters according to expert knowledge results in accurate baseflow separation but lower accuracy of total flow predictions, suggesting that these two objectives are intrinsically conflicting rather than compatible.

  4. Stock price forecasting using secondary self-regression model and wavelet neural networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Chi-I.; Wang, Kai-Cheng; Chang, Kuei-Fang

    2015-07-01

    We have established a DWT-based secondary self-regression model (AR(2)) to forecast stock value. This method requires the user to decide upon the trend of the stock prices. We later used WNN to forecast stock prices which does not require the user to decide upon the trend. When comparing these two methods, we could see that AR(2) does not perform as well if there are no trends for the stock prices. On the other hand, WNN would not be influenced by the presence of trends.

  5. Application of Multiple Linear Regression Models and Artificial Neural Networks on the Surface Ozone Forecast in the Greater Athens Area, Greece

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. P. Moustris

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available An attempt is made to forecast the daily maximum surface ozone concentration for the next 24 hours, within the greater Athens area (GAA. For this purpose, we applied Multiple Linear Regression (MLR models against a forecasting model based on Artificial Neural Network (ANN approach. The availability of basic meteorological parameters is of great importance in order to forecast the ozone’s concentration levels. Modelling was based on recorded meteorological and air pollution data from thirteen monitoring sites within the GAA (network of the Hellenic Ministry of the Environment, Energy and Climate Change over five years from 2001 to 2005. The evaluation of the performance of the constructed models, using appropriate statistical indices, shows clearly that in every aspect, the prognostic model by far is the ANN model. This suggests that the ANN model can be used to issue warnings for the general population and mainly sensitive groups.

  6. An evaluation of Bayesian techniques for controlling model complexity and selecting inputs in a neural network for short-term load forecasting.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hippert, Henrique S; Taylor, James W

    2010-04-01

    Artificial neural networks have frequently been proposed for electricity load forecasting because of their capabilities for the nonlinear modelling of large multivariate data sets. Modelling with neural networks is not an easy task though; two of the main challenges are defining the appropriate level of model complexity, and choosing the input variables. This paper evaluates techniques for automatic neural network modelling within a Bayesian framework, as applied to six samples containing daily load and weather data for four different countries. We analyse input selection as carried out by the Bayesian 'automatic relevance determination', and the usefulness of the Bayesian 'evidence' for the selection of the best structure (in terms of number of neurones), as compared to methods based on cross-validation. Copyright 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  7. A Hybrid Forecasting Model Based on Bivariate Division and a Backpropagation Artificial Neural Network Optimized by Chaos Particle Swarm Optimization for Day-Ahead Electricity Price

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhilong Wang

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available In the electricity market, the electricity price plays an inevitable role. Nevertheless, accurate price forecasting, a vital factor affecting both government regulatory agencies and public power companies, remains a huge challenge and a critical problem. Determining how to address the accurate forecasting problem becomes an even more significant task in an era in which electricity is increasingly important. Based on the chaos particle swarm optimization (CPSO, the backpropagation artificial neural network (BPANN, and the idea of bivariate division, this paper proposes a bivariate division BPANN (BD-BPANN method and the CPSO-BD-BPANN method for forecasting electricity price. The former method creatively transforms the electricity demand and price to be a new variable, named DV, which is calculated using the division principle, to forecast the day-ahead electricity by multiplying the forecasted values of the DVs and forecasted values of the demand. Next, to improve the accuracy of BD-BPANN, chaos particle swarm optimization and BD-BPANN are synthesized to form a novel model, CPSO-BD-BPANN. In this study, CPSO is utilized to optimize the initial parameters of BD-BPANN to make its output more stable than the original model. Finally, two forecasting strategies are proposed regarding different situations.

  8. Artificial Neural Network for Short-Term Load Forecasting in Distribution Systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Luis Hernández

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available The new paradigms and latest developments in the Electrical Grid are based on the introduction of distributed intelligence at several stages of its physical layer, giving birth to concepts such as Smart Grids, Virtual Power Plants, microgrids, Smart Buildings and Smart Environments. Distributed Generation (DG is a philosophy in which energy is no longer produced exclusively in huge centralized plants, but also in smaller premises which take advantage of local conditions in order to minimize transmission losses and optimize production and consumption. This represents a new opportunity for renewable energy, because small elements such as solar panels and wind turbines are expected to be scattered along the grid, feeding local installations or selling energy to the grid depending on their local generation/consumption conditions. The introduction of these highly dynamic elements will lead to a substantial change in the curves of demanded energy. The aim of this paper is to apply Short-Term Load Forecasting (STLF in microgrid environments with curves and similar behaviours, using two different data sets: the first one packing electricity consumption information during four years and six months in a microgrid along with calendar data, while the second one will be just four months of the previous parameters along with the solar radiation from the site. For the first set of data different STLF models will be discussed, studying the effect of each variable, in order to identify the best one. That model will be employed with the second set of data, in order to make a comparison with a new model that takes into account the solar radiation, since the photovoltaic installations of the microgrid will cause the power demand to fluctuate depending on the solar radiation.

  9. TRAFFIC TIME SERIES FORECASTING BY FEEDFORWARD NEURAL NETWORK: A CASE STUDY BASED ON TRAFFIC DATA OF MONROE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Raeesi

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available Short time prediction is one of the most important factors in intelligence transportation system (ITS. In this research, the use of feed forward neural network for traffic time-series prediction is presented. In this paper, the traffic in one direction of the road segment is predicted. The input of the neural network is the time delay data exported from the road traffic data of Monroe city. The time delay data is used for training the network. For generating the time delay data, the traffic data related to the first 300 days of 2008 is used. The performance of the feed forward neural network model is validated using the real observation data of the 301st day.

  10. Day-Ahead Natural Gas Demand Forecasting Using Optimized ABC-Based Neural Network with Sliding Window Technique: The Case Study of Regional Basis in Turkey

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mustafa Akpinar

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available The increase of energy consumption in the world is reflected in the consumption of natural gas. However, this increment requires additional investment. This effect leads imbalances in terms of demand forecasting, such as applying penalties in the case of error rates occurring beyond the acceptable limits. As the forecasting errors increase, penalties increase exponentially. Therefore, the optimal use of natural gas as a scarce resource is important. There are various demand forecast ranges for natural gas and the most difficult range among these demands is the day-ahead forecasting, since it is hard to implement and makes predictions with low error rates. The objective of this study is stabilizing gas tractions on day-ahead demand forecasting using low-consuming subscriber data for minimizing error using univariate artificial bee colony-based artificial neural networks (ANN-ABC. For this purpose, households and low-consuming commercial users’ four-year consumption data between the years of 2011–2014 are gathered in daily periods. Previous consumption values are used to forecast day-ahead consumption values with sliding window technique and other independent variables are not taken into account. Dataset is divided into two parts. First, three-year daily consumption values are used with a seven day window for training the networks, while the last year is used for the day-ahead demand forecasting. Results show that ANN-ABC is a strong, stable, and effective method with a low error rate of 14.9 mean absolute percentage error (MAPE for training utilizing MAPE with a univariate sliding window technique.

  11. Introduction to neural networks

    CERN Document Server

    James, Frederick E

    1994-02-02

    1. Introduction and overview of Artificial Neural Networks. 2,3. The Feed-forward Network as an inverse Problem, and results on the computational complexity of network training. 4.Physics applications of neural networks.

  12. Load forecasting using different architectures of neural networks with the assistance of the MATLAB toolboxes; Previsao de cargas eletricas utilizando diferentes arquiteturas de redes neurais artificiais com o auxilio das toolboxes do MATLAB

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nose Filho, Kenji; Araujo, Klayton A.M.; Maeda, Jorge L.Y.; Lotufo, Anna Diva P. [Universidade Estadual Paulista Julio de Mesquita Filho (UNESP), Ilha Solteira, SP (Brazil)], Emails: kenjinose@yahoo.com.br, klayton_ama@hotmail.com, jorge-maeda@hotmail.com, annadiva@dee.feis.unesp.br

    2009-07-01

    This paper presents a development and implementation of a program to electrical load forecasting with data from a Brazilian electrical company, using four different architectures of neural networks of the MATLAB toolboxes: multilayer backpropagation gradient descendent with momentum, multilayer backpropagation Levenberg-Marquardt, adaptive network based fuzzy inference system and general regression neural network. The program presented a satisfactory performance, guaranteeing very good results. (author)

  13. An artificial neural network to assess the impact of neighbouring photovoltaic systems in power forecasting in Utrecht, the Netherlands

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vaz, A. G R; Elsinga, B.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/372629601; van Sark, W. G J H M|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/074628526; Brito, M. C.

    2016-01-01

    In order to perform predictions of a photovoltaic (PV) system power production, a neural network architecture system using the Nonlinear Autoregressive with eXogenous inputs (NARX) model is implemented using not only local meteorological data but also measurements of neighbouring PV systems as

  14. A method of optimized neural network by L-M algorithm to transformer winding hot spot temperature forecasting

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wei, B. G.; Wu, X. Y.; Yao, Z. F.; Huang, H.

    2017-11-01

    Transformers are essential devices of the power system. The accurate computation of the highest temperature (HST) of a transformer’s windings is very significant, as for the HST is a fundamental parameter in controlling the load operation mode and influencing the life time of the insulation. Based on the analysis of the heat transfer processes and the thermal characteristics inside transformers, there is taken into consideration the influence of factors like the sunshine, external wind speed etc. on the oil-immersed transformers. Experimental data and the neural network are used for modeling and protesting of the HST, and furthermore, investigations are conducted on the optimization of the structure and algorithms of neutral network are conducted. Comparison is made between the measured values and calculated values by using the recommended algorithm of IEC60076 and by using the neural network algorithm proposed by the authors; comparison that shows that the value computed with the neural network algorithm approximates better the measured value than the value computed with the algorithm proposed by IEC60076.

  15. Morphological neural networks

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ritter, G.X.; Sussner, P. [Univ. of Florida, Gainesville, FL (United States)

    1996-12-31

    The theory of artificial neural networks has been successfully applied to a wide variety of pattern recognition problems. In this theory, the first step in computing the next state of a neuron or in performing the next layer neural network computation involves the linear operation of multiplying neural values by their synaptic strengths and adding the results. Thresholding usually follows the linear operation in order to provide for nonlinearity of the network. In this paper we introduce a novel class of neural networks, called morphological neural networks, in which the operations of multiplication and addition are replaced by addition and maximum (or minimum), respectively. By taking the maximum (or minimum) of sums instead of the sum of products, morphological network computation is nonlinear before thresholding. As a consequence, the properties of morphological neural networks are drastically different than those of traditional neural network models. In this paper we consider some of these differences and provide some particular examples of morphological neural network.

  16. Genetic algorithm for neural networks optimization

    Science.gov (United States)

    Setyawati, Bina R.; Creese, Robert C.; Sahirman, Sidharta

    2004-11-01

    This paper examines the forecasting performance of multi-layer feed forward neural networks in modeling a particular foreign exchange rates, i.e. Japanese Yen/US Dollar. The effects of two learning methods, Back Propagation and Genetic Algorithm, in which the neural network topology and other parameters fixed, were investigated. The early results indicate that the application of this hybrid system seems to be well suited for the forecasting of foreign exchange rates. The Neural Networks and Genetic Algorithm were programmed using MATLAB«.

  17. Artificial neural networks environmental forecasting in comparison with multiple linear regression technique: From heavy metals to organic micropollutants screening in agricultural soils

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bonelli, Maria Grazia; Ferrini, Mauro; Manni, Andrea

    2016-12-01

    The assessment of metals and organic micropollutants contamination in agricultural soils is a difficult challenge due to the extensive area used to collect and analyze a very large number of samples. With Dioxins and dioxin-like PCBs measurement methods and subsequent the treatment of data, the European Community advises the develop low-cost and fast methods allowing routing analysis of a great number of samples, providing rapid measurement of these compounds in the environment, feeds and food. The aim of the present work has been to find a method suitable to describe the relations occurring between organic and inorganic contaminants and use the value of the latter in order to forecast the former. In practice, the use of a metal portable soil analyzer coupled with an efficient statistical procedure enables the required objective to be achieved. Compared to Multiple Linear Regression, the Artificial Neural Networks technique has shown to be an excellent forecasting method, though there is no linear correlation between the variables to be analyzed.

  18. A stock market forecasting model combining two-directional two-dimensional principal component analysis and radial basis function neural network.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guo, Zhiqiang; Wang, Huaiqing; Yang, Jie; Miller, David J

    2015-01-01

    In this paper, we propose and implement a hybrid model combining two-directional two-dimensional principal component analysis ((2D)2PCA) and a Radial Basis Function Neural Network (RBFNN) to forecast stock market behavior. First, 36 stock market technical variables are selected as the input features, and a sliding window is used to obtain the input data of the model. Next, (2D)2PCA is utilized to reduce the dimension of the data and extract its intrinsic features. Finally, an RBFNN accepts the data processed by (2D)2PCA to forecast the next day's stock price or movement. The proposed model is used on the Shanghai stock market index, and the experiments show that the model achieves a good level of fitness. The proposed model is then compared with one that uses the traditional dimension reduction method principal component analysis (PCA) and independent component analysis (ICA). The empirical results show that the proposed model outperforms the PCA-based model, as well as alternative models based on ICA and on the multilayer perceptron.

  19. A stock market forecasting model combining two-directional two-dimensional principal component analysis and radial basis function neural network.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhiqiang Guo

    Full Text Available In this paper, we propose and implement a hybrid model combining two-directional two-dimensional principal component analysis ((2D2PCA and a Radial Basis Function Neural Network (RBFNN to forecast stock market behavior. First, 36 stock market technical variables are selected as the input features, and a sliding window is used to obtain the input data of the model. Next, (2D2PCA is utilized to reduce the dimension of the data and extract its intrinsic features. Finally, an RBFNN accepts the data processed by (2D2PCA to forecast the next day's stock price or movement. The proposed model is used on the Shanghai stock market index, and the experiments show that the model achieves a good level of fitness. The proposed model is then compared with one that uses the traditional dimension reduction method principal component analysis (PCA and independent component analysis (ICA. The empirical results show that the proposed model outperforms the PCA-based model, as well as alternative models based on ICA and on the multilayer perceptron.

  20. Next Day Price Forecasting in Deregulated Market by Combination of Artificial Neural Network and ARIMA Time Series Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Areekul, Phatchakorn; Senjyu, Tomonobu; Urasaki, Naomitsu; Yona, Atsushi

    Electricity price forecasting is becoming increasingly relevant to power producers and consumers in the new competitive electric power markets, when planning bidding strategies in order to maximize their benefits and utilities, respectively. This paper proposed a method to predict hourly electricity prices for next-day electricity markets by combination methodology of ARIMA and ANN models. The proposed method is examined on the Australian National Electricity Market (NEM), New South Wales regional in year 2006. Comparison of forecasting performance with the proposed ARIMA, ANN and combination (ARIMA-ANN) models are presented. Empirical results indicate that an ARIMA-ANN model can improve the price forecasting accuracy.

  1. Forecasting volatility with neural regression: a contribution to model adequacy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Refenes, A N; Holt, W T

    2001-01-01

    Neural nets' usefulness for forecasting is limited by problems of overfitting and the lack of rigorous procedures for model identification, selection and adequacy testing. This paper describes a methodology for neural model misspecification testing. We introduce a generalization of the Durbin-Watson statistic for neural regression and discuss the general issues of misspecification testing using residual analysis. We derive a generalized influence matrix for neural estimators which enables us to evaluate the distribution of the statistic. We deploy Monte Carlo simulation to compare the power of the test for neural and linear regressors. While residual testing is not a sufficient condition for model adequacy, it is nevertheless a necessary condition to demonstrate that the model is a good approximation to the data generating process, particularly as neural-network estimation procedures are susceptible to partial convergence. The work is also an important step toward developing rigorous procedures for neural model identification, selection and adequacy testing which have started to appear in the literature. We demonstrate its applicability in the nontrivial problem of forecasting implied volatility innovations using high-frequency stock index options. Each step of the model building process is validated using statistical tests to verify variable significance and model adequacy with the results confirming the presence of nonlinear relationships in implied volatility innovations.

  2. Neural Networks: Implementations and Applications

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vonk, E.; Veelenturf, L.P.J.; Jain, L.C.

    1996-01-01

    Artificial neural networks, also called neural networks, have been used successfully in many fields including engineering, science and business. This paper presents the implementation of several neural network simulators and their applications in character recognition and other engineering areas

  3. Short-Term Price Forecasting Models Based on Artificial Neural Networks for Intraday Sessions in the Iberian Electricity Market

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Claudio Monteiro

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents novel intraday session models for price forecasts (ISMPF models for hourly price forecasting in the six intraday sessions of the Iberian electricity market (MIBEL and the analysis of mean absolute percentage errors (MAPEs obtained with suitable combinations of their input variables in order to find the best ISMPF models. Comparisons of errors from different ISMPF models identified the most important variables for forecasting purposes. Similar analyses were applied to determine the best daily session models for price forecasts (DSMPF models for the day-ahead price forecasting in the daily session of the MIBEL, considering as input variables extensive hourly time series records of recent prices, power demands and power generations in the previous day, forecasts of demand, wind power generation and weather for the day-ahead, and chronological variables. ISMPF models include the input variables of DSMPF models as well as the daily session prices and prices of preceding intraday sessions. The best ISMPF models achieved lower MAPEs for most of the intraday sessions compared to the error of the best DSMPF model; furthermore, such DSMPF error was very close to the lowest limit error for the daily session. The best ISMPF models can be useful for MIBEL agents of the electricity intraday market and the electric energy industry.

  4. Artificial Neural Network forecasting of storm surge water levels at major estuarine ports to supplement national tide-surge models and improve port resilience planning

    Science.gov (United States)

    French, Jon; Mawdsley, Robert; Fujiyama, Taku; Achuthan, Kamal

    2017-04-01

    Effective prediction of tidal storm surge is of considerable importance for operators of major ports, since much of their infrastructure is necessarily located close to sea level. Storm surge inundation can damage critical elements of this infrastructure and significantly disrupt port operations and downstream supply chains. The risk of surge inundation is typically approached using extreme value analysis, while short-term forecasting generally relies on coastal shelf-scale tide and surge models. However, extreme value analysis does not provide information on the duration of a surge event and can be sensitive to the assumptions made and the historic data available. Also, whilst regional tide and surge models perform well along open coasts, their fairly coarse spatial resolution means that they do not always provide accurate predictions for estuarine ports. As part of a NERC Environmental Risks to Infrastructure Innovation Programme project, we have developed a tool that is specifically designed to forecast the North Sea storm surges on major ports along the east coast of the UK. Of particular interest is the Port of Immingham, Humber estuary, which handles the largest volume of bulk cargo in the UK including major flows of coal and biomass for power generation. A tidal surge in December 2013, with an estimated return period of 760 years, partly flooded the port, damaged infrastructure and disrupted operations for several weeks. This and other recent surge events highlight the need for additional tools to supplement the national UK Storm Tide Warning Service. Port operators are also keen to have access to less computationally expensive forecasting tools for scenario planning and to improve their resilience to actual events. In this paper, we demonstrate the potential of machine learning methods based on Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) to generate accurate short-term forecasts of extreme water levels at estuarine North Sea ports such as Immingham. An ANN is

  5. A methodology for extracting knowledge rules from artificial neural networks applied to forecast demand for electric power; Uma metodologia para extracao de regras de conhecimento a partir de redes neurais artificiais aplicadas para previsao de demanda por energia eletrica

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Steinmetz, Tarcisio; Souza, Glauber; Ferreira, Sandro; Santos, Jose V. Canto dos; Valiati, Joao [Universidade do Vale do Rio dos Sinos (PIPCA/UNISINOS), Sao Leopoldo, RS (Brazil). Programa de Pos-Graduacao em Computacao Aplicada], Emails: trsteinmetz@unisinos.br, gsouza@unisinos.br, sferreira, jvcanto@unisinos.br, jfvaliati@unisinos.br

    2009-07-01

    We present a methodology for the extraction of rules from Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) trained to forecast the electric load demand. The rules have the ability to express the knowledge regarding the behavior of load demand acquired by the ANN during the training process. The rules are presented to the user in an easy to read format, such as IF premise THEN consequence. Where premise relates to the input data submitted to the ANN (mapped as fuzzy sets), and consequence appears as a linear equation describing the output to be presented by the ANN, should the premise part holds true. Experimentation demonstrates the method's capacity for acquiring and presenting high quality rules from neural networks trained to forecast electric load demand for several amounts of time in the future. (author)

  6. Hidden neural networks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Krogh, Anders Stærmose; Riis, Søren Kamaric

    1999-01-01

    A general framework for hybrids of hidden Markov models (HMMs) and neural networks (NNs) called hidden neural networks (HNNs) is described. The article begins by reviewing standard HMMs and estimation by conditional maximum likelihood, which is used by the HNN. In the HNN, the usual HMM probability...... parameters are replaced by the outputs of state-specific neural networks. As opposed to many other hybrids, the HNN is normalized globally and therefore has a valid probabilistic interpretation. All parameters in the HNN are estimated simultaneously according to the discriminative conditional maximum...... likelihood criterion. The HNN can be viewed as an undirected probabilistic independence network (a graphical model), where the neural networks provide a compact representation of the clique functions. An evaluation of the HNN on the task of recognizing broad phoneme classes in the TIMIT database shows clear...

  7. Neural Network Ensembles

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Lars Kai; Salamon, Peter

    1990-01-01

    We propose several means for improving the performance an training of neural networks for classification. We use crossvalidation as a tool for optimizing network parameters and architecture. We show further that the remaining generalization error can be reduced by invoking ensembles of similar...... networks....

  8. Critical Branching Neural Networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kello, Christopher T.

    2013-01-01

    It is now well-established that intrinsic variations in human neural and behavioral activity tend to exhibit scaling laws in their fluctuations and distributions. The meaning of these scaling laws is an ongoing matter of debate between isolable causes versus pervasive causes. A spiking neural network model is presented that self-tunes to critical…

  9. Neural network applications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Padgett, Mary L.; Desai, Utpal; Roppel, T.A.; White, Charles R.

    1993-01-01

    A design procedure is suggested for neural networks which accommodates the inclusion of such knowledge-based systems techniques as fuzzy logic and pairwise comparisons. The use of these procedures in the design of applications combines qualitative and quantitative factors with empirical data to yield a model with justifiable design and parameter selection procedures. The procedure is especially relevant to areas of back-propagation neural network design which are highly responsive to the use of precisely recorded expert knowledge.

  10. Neural network simulation of the industrial producer price index dynamical series

    OpenAIRE

    Soshnikov, L. E.

    2013-01-01

    This paper is devoted the simulation and forecast of dynamical series of the economical indicators. Multilayer perceptron and Radial basis function neural networks have been used. The neural networks model results are compared with the econometrical modeling.

  11. Application of a Combined Model with Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) and Generalized Regression Neural Network (GRNN) in Forecasting Hepatitis Incidence in Heng County, China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liang, Hao; Gao, Lian; Liang, Bingyu; Huang, Jiegang; Zang, Ning; Liao, Yanyan; Yu, Jun; Lai, Jingzhen; Qin, Fengxiang; Su, Jinming; Ye, Li; Chen, Hui

    2016-01-01

    Background Hepatitis is a serious public health problem with increasing cases and property damage in Heng County. It is necessary to develop a model to predict the hepatitis epidemic that could be useful for preventing this disease. Methods The autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model and the generalized regression neural network (GRNN) model were used to fit the incidence data from the Heng County CDC (Center for Disease Control and Prevention) from January 2005 to December 2012. Then, the ARIMA-GRNN hybrid model was developed. The incidence data from January 2013 to December 2013 were used to validate the models. Several parameters, including mean absolute error (MAE), root mean square error (RMSE), mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) and mean square error (MSE), were used to compare the performance among the three models. Results The morbidity of hepatitis from Jan 2005 to Dec 2012 has seasonal variation and slightly rising trend. The ARIMA(0,1,2)(1,1,1)12 model was the most appropriate one with the residual test showing a white noise sequence. The smoothing factor of the basic GRNN model and the combined model was 1.8 and 0.07, respectively. The four parameters of the hybrid model were lower than those of the two single models in the validation. The parameters values of the GRNN model were the lowest in the fitting of the three models. Conclusions The hybrid ARIMA-GRNN model showed better hepatitis incidence forecasting in Heng County than the single ARIMA model and the basic GRNN model. It is a potential decision-supportive tool for controlling hepatitis in Heng County. PMID:27258555

  12. Ocean wave prediction using numerical and neural network models

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Mandal, S.; Prabaharan, N.

    This paper presents an overview of the development of the numerical wave prediction models and recently used neural networks for ocean wave hindcasting and forecasting. The numerical wave models express the physical concepts of the phenomena...

  13. Financial Time Series Prediction Using Elman Recurrent Random Neural Networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Jie; Wang, Jun; Fang, Wen; Niu, Hongli

    2016-01-01

    In recent years, financial market dynamics forecasting has been a focus of economic research. To predict the price indices of stock markets, we developed an architecture which combined Elman recurrent neural networks with stochastic time effective function. By analyzing the proposed model with the linear regression, complexity invariant distance (CID), and multiscale CID (MCID) analysis methods and taking the model compared with different models such as the backpropagation neural network (BPNN), the stochastic time effective neural network (STNN), and the Elman recurrent neural network (ERNN), the empirical results show that the proposed neural network displays the best performance among these neural networks in financial time series forecasting. Further, the empirical research is performed in testing the predictive effects of SSE, TWSE, KOSPI, and Nikkei225 with the established model, and the corresponding statistical comparisons of the above market indices are also exhibited. The experimental results show that this approach gives good performance in predicting the values from the stock market indices. PMID:27293423

  14. Hyperbolic Hopfield neural networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kobayashi, M

    2013-02-01

    In recent years, several neural networks using Clifford algebra have been studied. Clifford algebra is also called geometric algebra. Complex-valued Hopfield neural networks (CHNNs) are the most popular neural networks using Clifford algebra. The aim of this brief is to construct hyperbolic HNNs (HHNNs) as an analog of CHNNs. Hyperbolic algebra is a Clifford algebra based on Lorentzian geometry. In this brief, a hyperbolic neuron is defined in a manner analogous to a phasor neuron, which is a typical complex-valued neuron model. HHNNs share common concepts with CHNNs, such as the angle and energy. However, HHNNs and CHNNs are different in several aspects. The states of hyperbolic neurons do not form a circle, and, therefore, the start and end states are not identical. In the quantized version, unlike complex-valued neurons, hyperbolic neurons have an infinite number of states.

  15. Artificial neural network intelligent method for prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trifonov, Roumen; Yoshinov, Radoslav; Pavlova, Galya; Tsochev, Georgi

    2017-09-01

    Accounting and financial classification and prediction problems are high challenge and researchers use different methods to solve them. Methods and instruments for short time prediction of financial operations using artificial neural network are considered. The methods, used for prediction of financial data as well as the developed forecasting system with neural network are described in the paper. The architecture of a neural network used four different technical indicators, which are based on the raw data and the current day of the week is presented. The network developed is used for forecasting movement of stock prices one day ahead and consists of an input layer, one hidden layer and an output layer. The training method is algorithm with back propagation of the error. The main advantage of the developed system is self-determination of the optimal topology of neural network, due to which it becomes flexible and more precise The proposed system with neural network is universal and can be applied to various financial instruments using only basic technical indicators as input data.

  16. A Neural Network-Based Interval Pattern Matcher

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jing Lu

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available One of the most important roles in the machine learning area is to classify, and neural networks are very important classifiers. However, traditional neural networks cannot identify intervals, let alone classify them. To improve their identification ability, we propose a neural network-based interval matcher in our paper. After summarizing the theoretical construction of the model, we take a simple and a practical weather forecasting experiment, which show that the recognizer accuracy reaches 100% and that is promising.

  17. APPLICATION OF A FULL-COHERENT ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORK FOR FORECASTING OF THE MODES OF STORAGE OF DOMESTIC LOW-OLIVE RAW MATERIALS IN CONTROLLED ENVIRONMENTS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N. S. Rodionova

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Summary. Researches on increase in an expiration date of the wheat germs (WG with use of compositions of organic acids are conducted. With a research objective of influence of concentration of mixes of organic acids on change of indicators of quality at storage of the SALARY in various modes investigated quality indicators in the range of concentration of 1-7% to the mass of a product. As control the raw SALARIES served. Skilled products stored in refrigerator conditions (temperature 4-6 ºС, relative humidity of air of 75-80% and a warehouse (temperature 20-22 ºС, relative humidity of air of 70-80%. The software product on the basis of the program of training and the analysis of training of an artificial full-coherent neural network (INS in the Python 2.7 language with program libraries of mathematical processing of scientific data of "scipy" is developed. As input parameters of a neural network were considered: humidity of wheaten germs (х1, %, relative humidity of air (х2, %, ambient temperature (х3, ºС and concentration of mix of organic acids (х4, %. By means of the software, some neural networks were designed and trained. For modeling the network with two layers was used. Applying the developed and trained neural network it is possible constructed dependence у(х1, х2, х3, х4. For visualization in three-dimensional space limited amount of arguments of function by two. Results of work of neural networks y (x1, x4 with the recorded entrance parameters (x2 = 60, %, x3=20, ºC and a neural network y (x2, x3 with the recorded input parameters are presented (x1 = 15%, x4 = 5%. The received mathematical model which on the set set of certain parameters of storage, allows to receive concrete value of output parameter and to plan the storage modes in controlled environments.

  18. Introduction to Artificial Neural Networks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larsen, Jan

    1999-01-01

    The note addresses introduction to signal analysis and classification based on artificial feed-forward neural networks.......The note addresses introduction to signal analysis and classification based on artificial feed-forward neural networks....

  19. Deconvolution using a neural network

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lehman, S.K.

    1990-11-15

    Viewing one dimensional deconvolution as a matrix inversion problem, we compare a neural network backpropagation matrix inverse with LMS, and pseudo-inverse. This is a largely an exercise in understanding how our neural network code works. 1 ref.

  20. Artificial neural network modelling

    CERN Document Server

    Samarasinghe, Sandhya

    2016-01-01

    This book covers theoretical aspects as well as recent innovative applications of Artificial Neural networks (ANNs) in natural, environmental, biological, social, industrial and automated systems. It presents recent results of ANNs in modelling small, large and complex systems under three categories, namely, 1) Networks, Structure Optimisation, Robustness and Stochasticity 2) Advances in Modelling Biological and Environmental Systems and 3) Advances in Modelling Social and Economic Systems. The book aims at serving undergraduates, postgraduates and researchers in ANN computational modelling. .

  1. Neural network technologies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Villarreal, James A.

    1991-01-01

    A whole new arena of computer technologies is now beginning to form. Still in its infancy, neural network technology is a biologically inspired methodology which draws on nature's own cognitive processes. The Software Technology Branch has provided a software tool, Neural Execution and Training System (NETS), to industry, government, and academia to facilitate and expedite the use of this technology. NETS is written in the C programming language and can be executed on a variety of machines. Once a network has been debugged, NETS can produce a C source code which implements the network. This code can then be incorporated into other software systems. Described here are various software projects currently under development with NETS and the anticipated future enhancements to NETS and the technology.

  2. Research on wind field algorithm of wind lidar based on BP neural network and grey prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Yong; Chen, Chun-Li; Luo, Xiong; Zhang, Yan; Yang, Ze-hou; Zhou, Jie; Shi, Xiao-ding; Wang, Lei

    2018-01-01

    This paper uses the BP neural network and grey algorithm to forecast and study radar wind field. In order to reduce the residual error in the wind field prediction which uses BP neural network and grey algorithm, calculating the minimum value of residual error function, adopting the residuals of the gray algorithm trained by BP neural network, using the trained network model to forecast the residual sequence, using the predicted residual error sequence to modify the forecast sequence of the grey algorithm. The test data show that using the grey algorithm modified by BP neural network can effectively reduce the residual value and improve the prediction precision.

  3. Neural networks for triggering

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Denby, B. (Fermi National Accelerator Lab., Batavia, IL (USA)); Campbell, M. (Michigan Univ., Ann Arbor, MI (USA)); Bedeschi, F. (Istituto Nazionale di Fisica Nucleare, Pisa (Italy)); Chriss, N.; Bowers, C. (Chicago Univ., IL (USA)); Nesti, F. (Scuola Normale Superiore, Pisa (Italy))

    1990-01-01

    Two types of neural network beauty trigger architectures, based on identification of electrons in jets and recognition of secondary vertices, have been simulated in the environment of the Fermilab CDF experiment. The efficiencies for B's and rejection of background obtained are encouraging. If hardware tests are successful, the electron identification architecture will be tested in the 1991 run of CDF. 10 refs., 5 figs., 1 tab.

  4. Investment Valuation Analysis with Artificial Neural Networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hüseyin İNCE

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available This paper shows that discounted cash flow and net present value, which are traditional investment valuation models, can be combined with artificial neural network model forecasting. The main inputs for the valuation models, such as revenue, costs, capital expenditure, and their growth rates, are heavily related to sector dynamics and macroeconomics. The growth rates of those inputs are related to inflation and exchange rates. Therefore, predicting inflation and exchange rates is a critical issue for the valuation output. In this paper, the Turkish economy’s inflation rate and the exchange rate of USD/TRY are forecast by artificial neural networks and implemented to the discounted cash flow model. Finally, the results are benchmarked with conventional practices.

  5. Runoff Modelling in Urban Storm Drainage by Neural Networks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasmussen, Michael R.; Brorsen, Michael; Schaarup-Jensen, Kjeld

    1995-01-01

    A neural network is used to simulate folw and water levels in a sewer system. The calibration of th neural network is based on a few measured events and the network is validated against measureed events as well as flow simulated with the MOUSE model (Lindberg and Joergensen, 1986). The neural...... network is used to compute flow or water level at selected points in the sewer system, and to forecast the flow from a small residential area. The main advantages of the neural network are the build-in self calibration procedure and high speed performance, but the neural network cannot be used to extract...... knowledge of the runoff process. The neural network was found to simulate 150 times faster than e.g. the MOUSE model....

  6. Artificial neural network application for real time forecasting of levels in a natural water course; Un'applicazione delle reti neurali artificiali per la previsione in tempo reale delle altezze idrometriche di un corso d'acqua

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pecora, S. [Ufficio Idrografico e Mareografico per il bacino del fiume Po, Parma (Italy); Veltri, P. [Cosenza Univ. della Calabria, Cosenza (Italy). Dipt. di Difesa del Suolo

    2001-04-01

    The recent adoption of law limits in the field of environmental defence has turned attention of technicians and researchers towards characterization of receiving catchment. During a flood event, after a period far from such extreme events, water quality monitoring can be meaningful to characterize diffuse pollutant loads, carried by the first washing water of the catchment. In order to that it is necessary to adopt suitable control systems which, reliable in forecasting, can start automatic sampler form a remote place, in such a way as to draw samples during flood growth already. Artificial neural networks (ANN) have been applied to forecasting of water levels at the section of Enza at Cedogno (Reggio Emilia, Italy). [Italian] La recente adozione di limiti normativi in materia di tutela ambientale ha rivolto l'attenzione di tecnici e ricercatori verso la caratterizzazione del bacino ricettore. Il monitoraggio della qualita' idrica durante una piena, dopo un periodo lontano da tali eventi estremi, puo' essere significativo per l'individuazione dei carichi inquinanti diffusi, trasportati dalle prime acque di dilavamento del bacino. A tal fine e' necessario adottare opportuni sistemi di controllo che, affidabili nelle previsioni, possano avviare da remoto il campionamento automatico delle acque, in modo da prelevare i campioni gia' durante la fase di crescita della piena. Le reti neurali (ANN, artificial neural network) sono state applicate nella previsione delle altezze idrometriche alla sezione di Enza a Cedogno (RE).

  7. Comparison of ARIMA and Artificial Neural Networks Models for Stock Price Prediction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ayodele Ariyo Adebiyi

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper examines the forecasting performance of ARIMA and artificial neural networks model with published stock data obtained from New York Stock Exchange. The empirical results obtained reveal the superiority of neural networks model over ARIMA model. The findings further resolve and clarify contradictory opinions reported in literature over the superiority of neural networks and ARIMA model and vice versa.

  8. [Artificial neural networks in Neurosciences].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Porras Chavarino, Carmen; Salinas Martínez de Lecea, José María

    2011-11-01

    This article shows that artificial neural networks are used for confirming the relationships between physiological and cognitive changes. Specifically, we explore the influence of a decrease of neurotransmitters on the behaviour of old people in recognition tasks. This artificial neural network recognizes learned patterns. When we change the threshold of activation in some units, the artificial neural network simulates the experimental results of old people in recognition tasks. However, the main contributions of this paper are the design of an artificial neural network and its operation inspired by the nervous system and the way the inputs are coded and the process of orthogonalization of patterns.

  9. Broadband Traffic Forecasting in the Transport Network

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Valentina Radojičić

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available This paper proposes a modification of traffic forecast model generated by residential and small business (SOHO, Small Office Home Office users. The model includes forecasted values of different relevant factors and competition on broadband market. It allows forecasting the number of users for various broadband technologies and interaction impact of long-standing technologies as well as the impact of the new technology entrant on the market. All the necessary parameters are evaluated for the Serbian broadband market. The long-term forecasted results of broadband traffic are given. The analyses and evaluations performed are important inputs for the transport network resources planning.

  10. Analysis of neural networks

    CERN Document Server

    Heiden, Uwe

    1980-01-01

    The purpose of this work is a unified and general treatment of activity in neural networks from a mathematical pOint of view. Possible applications of the theory presented are indica­ ted throughout the text. However, they are not explored in de­ tail for two reasons : first, the universal character of n- ral activity in nearly all animals requires some type of a general approach~ secondly, the mathematical perspicuity would suffer if too many experimental details and empirical peculiarities were interspersed among the mathematical investigation. A guide to many applications is supplied by the references concerning a variety of specific issues. Of course the theory does not aim at covering all individual problems. Moreover there are other approaches to neural network theory (see e.g. Poggio-Torre, 1978) based on the different lev­ els at which the nervous system may be viewed. The theory is a deterministic one reflecting the average be­ havior of neurons or neuron pools. In this respect the essay is writt...

  11. Small-time Scale Network Traffic Prediction Based on Complex-valued Neural Network

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Bin

    2017-07-01

    Accurate models play an important role in capturing the significant characteristics of the network traffic, analyzing the network dynamic, and improving the forecasting accuracy for system dynamics. In this study, complex-valued neural network (CVNN) model is proposed to further improve the accuracy of small-time scale network traffic forecasting. Artificial bee colony (ABC) algorithm is proposed to optimize the complex-valued and real-valued parameters of CVNN model. Small-scale traffic measurements data namely the TCP traffic data is used to test the performance of CVNN model. Experimental results reveal that CVNN model forecasts the small-time scale network traffic measurement data very accurately

  12. Neural Networks for Optimal Control

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sørensen, O.

    1995-01-01

    Two neural networks are trained to act as an observer and a controller, respectively, to control a non-linear, multi-variable process.......Two neural networks are trained to act as an observer and a controller, respectively, to control a non-linear, multi-variable process....

  13. Neural Networks in Control Applications

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sørensen, O.

    The intention of this report is to make a systematic examination of the possibilities of applying neural networks in those technical areas, which are familiar to a control engineer. In other words, the potential of neural networks in control applications is given higher priority than a detailed...... examined, and it appears that considering 'normal' neural network models with, say, 500 samples, the problem of over-fitting is neglible, and therefore it is not taken into consideration afterwards. Numerous model types, often met in control applications, are implemented as neural network models...... Kalmann filter) representing state space description. The potentials of neural networks for control of non-linear processes are also examined, focusing on three different groups of control concepts, all considered as generalizations of known linear control concepts to handle also non-linear processes...

  14. Financial Time Series Prediction Using Elman Recurrent Random Neural Networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jie Wang

    2016-01-01

    (ERNN, the empirical results show that the proposed neural network displays the best performance among these neural networks in financial time series forecasting. Further, the empirical research is performed in testing the predictive effects of SSE, TWSE, KOSPI, and Nikkei225 with the established model, and the corresponding statistical comparisons of the above market indices are also exhibited. The experimental results show that this approach gives good performance in predicting the values from the stock market indices.

  15. An Optoelectronic Neural Network

    Science.gov (United States)

    Neil, Mark A. A.; White, Ian H.; Carroll, John E.

    1990-02-01

    We describe and present results of an optoelectronic neural network processing system. The system uses an algorithm based on the Hebbian learning rule to memorise a set of associated vector pairs. Recall occurs by the processing of the input vector with these stored associations in an incoherent optical vector multiplier using optical polarisation rotating liquid crystal spatial light modulators to store the vectors and an optical polarisation shadow casting technique to perform multiplications. Results are detected on a photodiode array and thresholded electronically by a controlling microcomputer. The processor is shown to work in autoassociative and heteroassociative modes with up to 10 stored memory vectors of length 64 (equivalent to 64 neurons) and a cycle time of 50ms. We discuss the limiting factors at work in this system, how they affect its scalability and the general applicability of its principles to other systems.

  16. Neural Networks in Control Applications

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sørensen, O.

    The intention of this report is to make a systematic examination of the possibilities of applying neural networks in those technical areas, which are familiar to a control engineer. In other words, the potential of neural networks in control applications is given higher priority than a detailed...... study of the networks themselves. With this end in view the following restrictions have been made: - Amongst numerous neural network structures, only the Multi Layer Perceptron (a feed-forward network) is applied. - Amongst numerous training algorithms, only four algorithms are examined, all...... in a recursive form (sample updating). The simplest is the Back Probagation Error Algorithm, and the most complex is the recursive Prediction Error Method using a Gauss-Newton search direction. - Over-fitting is often considered to be a serious problem when training neural networks. This problem is specifically...

  17. Neural Networks in Control Applications

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sørensen, O.

    simulated process and compared. The closing chapter describes some practical experiments, where the different control concepts and training methods are tested on the same practical process operating in very noisy environments. All tests confirm that neural networks also have the potential to be trained......The intention of this report is to make a systematic examination of the possibilities of applying neural networks in those technical areas, which are familiar to a control engineer. In other words, the potential of neural networks in control applications is given higher priority than a detailed...... study of the networks themselves. With this end in view the following restrictions have been made: - Amongst numerous neural network structures, only the Multi Layer Perceptron (a feed-forward network) is applied. - Amongst numerous training algorithms, only four algorithms are examined, all...

  18. One-day-ahead streamflow forecasting via super-ensembles of several neural network architectures based on the Multi-Level Diversity Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brochero, Darwin; Hajji, Islem; Pina, Jasson; Plana, Queralt; Sylvain, Jean-Daniel; Vergeynst, Jenna; Anctil, Francois

    2015-04-01

    Theories about generalization error with ensembles are mainly based on the diversity concept, which promotes resorting to many members of different properties to support mutually agreeable decisions. Kuncheva (2004) proposed the Multi Level Diversity Model (MLDM) to promote diversity in model ensembles, combining different data subsets, input subsets, models, parameters, and including a combiner level in order to optimize the final ensemble. This work tests the hypothesis about the minimisation of the generalization error with ensembles of Neural Network (NN) structures. We used the MLDM to evaluate two different scenarios: (i) ensembles from a same NN architecture, and (ii) a super-ensemble built by a combination of sub-ensembles of many NN architectures. The time series used correspond to the 12 basins of the MOdel Parameter Estimation eXperiment (MOPEX) project that were used by Duan et al. (2006) and Vos (2013) as benchmark. Six architectures are evaluated: FeedForward NN (FFNN) trained with the Levenberg Marquardt algorithm (Hagan et al., 1996), FFNN trained with SCE (Duan et al., 1993), Recurrent NN trained with a complex method (Weins et al., 2008), Dynamic NARX NN (Leontaritis and Billings, 1985), Echo State Network (ESN), and leak integrator neuron (L-ESN) (Lukosevicius and Jaeger, 2009). Each architecture performs separately an Input Variable Selection (IVS) according to a forward stepwise selection (Anctil et al., 2009) using mean square error as objective function. Post-processing by Predictor Stepwise Selection (PSS) of the super-ensemble has been done following the method proposed by Brochero et al. (2011). IVS results showed that the lagged stream flow, lagged precipitation, and Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) (McKee et al., 1993) were the most relevant variables. They were respectively selected as one of the firsts three selected variables in 66, 45, and 28 of the 72 scenarios. A relationship between aridity index (Arora, 2002) and NN

  19. Forecasting PM10 in Algiers: efficacy of multilayer perceptron networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abderrahim, Hamza; Chellali, Mohammed Reda; Hamou, Ahmed

    2016-01-01

    Air quality forecasting system has acquired high importance in atmospheric pollution due to its negative impacts on the environment and human health. The artificial neural network is one of the most common soft computing methods that can be pragmatic for carving such complex problem. In this paper, we used a multilayer perceptron neural network to forecast the daily averaged concentration of the respirable suspended particulates with aerodynamic diameter of not more than 10 μm (PM10) in Algiers, Algeria. The data for training and testing the network are based on the data sampled from 2002 to 2006 collected by SAMASAFIA network center at El Hamma station. The meteorological data, air temperature, relative humidity, and wind speed, are used as inputs network parameters in the formation of model. The training patterns used correspond to 41 days data. The performance of the developed models was evaluated on the basis index of agreement and other statistical parameters. It was seen that the overall performance of model with 15 neurons is better than the ones with 5 and 10 neurons. The results of multilayer network with as few as one hidden layer and 15 neurons were quite reasonable than the ones with 5 and 10 neurons. Finally, an error around 9% has been reached.

  20. Neural-like growing networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yashchenko, Vitaliy A.

    2000-03-01

    On the basis of the analysis of scientific ideas reflecting the law in the structure and functioning the biological structures of a brain, and analysis and synthesis of knowledge, developed by various directions in Computer Science, also there were developed the bases of the theory of a new class neural-like growing networks, not having the analogue in world practice. In a base of neural-like growing networks the synthesis of knowledge developed by classical theories - semantic and neural of networks is. The first of them enable to form sense, as objects and connections between them in accordance with construction of the network. With thus each sense gets a separate a component of a network as top, connected to other tops. In common it quite corresponds to structure reflected in a brain, where each obvious concept is presented by certain structure and has designating symbol. Secondly, this network gets increased semantic clearness at the expense owing to formation not only connections between neural by elements, but also themselves of elements as such, i.e. here has a place not simply construction of a network by accommodation sense structures in environment neural of elements, and purely creation of most this environment, as of an equivalent of environment of memory. Thus neural-like growing networks are represented by the convenient apparatus for modeling of mechanisms of teleological thinking, as a fulfillment of certain psychophysiological of functions.

  1. Network Bandwidth Utilization Forecast Model on High Bandwidth Network

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yoo, Wucherl; Sim, Alex

    2014-07-07

    With the increasing number of geographically distributed scientific collaborations and the scale of the data size growth, it has become more challenging for users to achieve the best possible network performance on a shared network. We have developed a forecast model to predict expected bandwidth utilization for high-bandwidth wide area network. The forecast model can improve the efficiency of resource utilization and scheduling data movements on high-bandwidth network to accommodate ever increasing data volume for large-scale scientific data applications. Univariate model is developed with STL and ARIMA on SNMP path utilization data. Compared with traditional approach such as Box-Jenkins methodology, our forecast model reduces computation time by 83.2percent. It also shows resilience against abrupt network usage change. The accuracy of the forecast model is within the standard deviation of the monitored measurements.

  2. Network bandwidth utilization forecast model on high bandwidth networks

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yoo, Wuchert (William) [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Sim, Alex [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)

    2015-03-30

    With the increasing number of geographically distributed scientific collaborations and the scale of the data size growth, it has become more challenging for users to achieve the best possible network performance on a shared network. We have developed a forecast model to predict expected bandwidth utilization for high-bandwidth wide area network. The forecast model can improve the efficiency of resource utilization and scheduling data movements on high-bandwidth network to accommodate ever increasing data volume for large-scale scientific data applications. Univariate model is developed with STL and ARIMA on SNMP path utilization data. Compared with traditional approach such as Box-Jenkins methodology, our forecast model reduces computation time by 83.2%. It also shows resilience against abrupt network usage change. The accuracy of the forecast model is within the standard deviation of the monitored measurements.

  3. Precipitation Nowcast using Deep Recurrent Neural Network

    Science.gov (United States)

    Akbari Asanjan, A.; Yang, T.; Gao, X.; Hsu, K. L.; Sorooshian, S.

    2016-12-01

    An accurate precipitation nowcast (0-6 hours) with a fine temporal and spatial resolution has always been an important prerequisite for flood warning, streamflow prediction and risk management. Most of the popular approaches used for forecasting precipitation can be categorized into two groups. One type of precipitation forecast relies on numerical modeling of the physical dynamics of atmosphere and another is based on empirical and statistical regression models derived by local hydrologists or meteorologists. Given the recent advances in artificial intelligence, in this study a powerful Deep Recurrent Neural Network, termed as Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) model, is creatively used to extract the patterns and forecast the spatial and temporal variability of Cloud Top Brightness Temperature (CTBT) observed from GOES satellite. Then, a 0-6 hours precipitation nowcast is produced using a Precipitation Estimation from Remote Sensing Information using Artificial Neural Network (PERSIANN) algorithm, in which the CTBT nowcast is used as the PERSIANN algorithm's raw inputs. Two case studies over the continental U.S. have been conducted that demonstrate the improvement of proposed approach as compared to a classical Feed Forward Neural Network and a couple simple regression models. The advantages and disadvantages of the proposed method are summarized with regard to its capability of pattern recognition through time, handling of vanishing gradient during model learning, and working with sparse data. The studies show that the LSTM model performs better than other methods, and it is able to learn the temporal evolution of the precipitation events through over 1000 time lags. The uniqueness of PERSIANN's algorithm enables an alternative precipitation nowcast approach as demonstrated in this study, in which the CTBT prediction is produced and used as the inputs for generating precipitation nowcast.

  4. Artificial Neural Networks·

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    differences between biological neural networks (BNNs) of the brain and ANN s. A thorough understanding of ... neurons. Artificial neural models are loosely based on biology since a complete understanding of the .... A learning scheme for updating a neuron's connections (weights) was proposed by Donald Hebb in 1949.

  5. Neural networks and statistical learning

    CERN Document Server

    Du, Ke-Lin

    2014-01-01

    Providing a broad but in-depth introduction to neural network and machine learning in a statistical framework, this book provides a single, comprehensive resource for study and further research. All the major popular neural network models and statistical learning approaches are covered with examples and exercises in every chapter to develop a practical working understanding of the content. Each of the twenty-five chapters includes state-of-the-art descriptions and important research results on the respective topics. The broad coverage includes the multilayer perceptron, the Hopfield network, associative memory models, clustering models and algorithms, the radial basis function network, recurrent neural networks, principal component analysis, nonnegative matrix factorization, independent component analysis, discriminant analysis, support vector machines, kernel methods, reinforcement learning, probabilistic and Bayesian networks, data fusion and ensemble learning, fuzzy sets and logic, neurofuzzy models, hardw...

  6. Memristor-based neural networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thomas, Andy

    2013-03-01

    The synapse is a crucial element in biological neural networks, but a simple electronic equivalent has been absent. This complicates the development of hardware that imitates biological architectures in the nervous system. Now, the recent progress in the experimental realization of memristive devices has renewed interest in artificial neural networks. The resistance of a memristive system depends on its past states and exactly this functionality can be used to mimic the synaptic connections in a (human) brain. After a short introduction to memristors, we present and explain the relevant mechanisms in a biological neural network, such as long-term potentiation and spike time-dependent plasticity, and determine the minimal requirements for an artificial neural network. We review the implementations of these processes using basic electric circuits and more complex mechanisms that either imitate biological systems or could act as a model system for them.

  7. Pansharpening by Convolutional Neural Networks

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Masi, Giuseppe; Cozzolino, Davide; Verdoliva, Luisa; Scarpa, Giuseppe

    2016-01-01

    A new pansharpening method is proposed, based on convolutional neural networks. We adapt a simple and effective three-layer architecture recently proposed for super-resolution to the pansharpening problem...

  8. What are artificial neural networks?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Krogh, Anders

    2008-01-01

    Artificial neural networks have been applied to problems ranging from speech recognition to prediction of protein secondary structure, classification of cancers and gene prediction. How do they work and what might they be good for? Udgivelsesdato: 2008-Feb......Artificial neural networks have been applied to problems ranging from speech recognition to prediction of protein secondary structure, classification of cancers and gene prediction. How do they work and what might they be good for? Udgivelsesdato: 2008-Feb...

  9. Biologically Inspired Modular Neural Networks

    OpenAIRE

    Azam, Farooq

    2000-01-01

    This dissertation explores the modular learning in artificial neural networks that mainly driven by the inspiration from the neurobiological basis of the human learning. The presented modularization approaches to the neural network design and learning are inspired by the engineering, complexity, psychological and neurobiological aspects. The main theme of this dissertation is to explore the organization and functioning of the brain to discover new structural and learning ...

  10. Flood routing modelling with Artificial Neural Networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. Peters

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available For the modelling of the flood routing in the lower reaches of the Freiberger Mulde river and its tributaries the one-dimensional hydrodynamic modelling system HEC-RAS has been applied. Furthermore, this model was used to generate a database to train multilayer feedforward networks. To guarantee numerical stability for the hydrodynamic modelling of some 60 km of streamcourse an adequate resolution in space requires very small calculation time steps, which are some two orders of magnitude smaller than the input data resolution. This leads to quite high computation requirements seriously restricting the application – especially when dealing with real time operations such as online flood forecasting. In order to solve this problem we tested the application of Artificial Neural Networks (ANN. First studies show the ability of adequately trained multilayer feedforward networks (MLFN to reproduce the model performance.

  11. Complex-Valued Neural Networks

    CERN Document Server

    Hirose, Akira

    2012-01-01

    This book is the second enlarged and revised edition of the first successful monograph on complex-valued neural networks (CVNNs) published in 2006, which lends itself to graduate and undergraduate courses in electrical engineering, informatics, control engineering, mechanics, robotics, bioengineering, and other relevant fields. In the second edition the recent trends in CVNNs research are included, resulting in e.g. almost a doubled number of references. The parametron invented in 1954 is also referred to with discussion on analogy and disparity. Also various additional arguments on the advantages of the complex-valued neural networks enhancing the difference to real-valued neural networks are given in various sections. The book is useful for those beginning their studies, for instance, in adaptive signal processing for highly functional sensing and imaging, control in unknown and changing environment, robotics inspired by human neural systems, and brain-like information processing, as well as interdisciplina...

  12. Fractional Hopfield Neural Networks: Fractional Dynamic Associative Recurrent Neural Networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pu, Yi-Fei; Yi, Zhang; Zhou, Ji-Liu

    2017-10-01

    This paper mainly discusses a novel conceptual framework: fractional Hopfield neural networks (FHNN). As is commonly known, fractional calculus has been incorporated into artificial neural networks, mainly because of its long-term memory and nonlocality. Some researchers have made interesting attempts at fractional neural networks and gained competitive advantages over integer-order neural networks. Therefore, it is naturally makes one ponder how to generalize the first-order Hopfield neural networks to the fractional-order ones, and how to implement FHNN by means of fractional calculus. We propose to introduce a novel mathematical method: fractional calculus to implement FHNN. First, we implement fractor in the form of an analog circuit. Second, we implement FHNN by utilizing fractor and the fractional steepest descent approach, construct its Lyapunov function, and further analyze its attractors. Third, we perform experiments to analyze the stability and convergence of FHNN, and further discuss its applications to the defense against chip cloning attacks for anticounterfeiting. The main contribution of our work is to propose FHNN in the form of an analog circuit by utilizing a fractor and the fractional steepest descent approach, construct its Lyapunov function, prove its Lyapunov stability, analyze its attractors, and apply FHNN to the defense against chip cloning attacks for anticounterfeiting. A significant advantage of FHNN is that its attractors essentially relate to the neuron's fractional order. FHNN possesses the fractional-order-stability and fractional-order-sensitivity characteristics.

  13. Artificial Neural Network for Monthly Rainfall Rate Prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Purnomo, H. D.; Hartomo, K. D.; Prasetyo, S. Y. J.

    2017-03-01

    Rainfall rate forecasting plays an important role in various human activities. Rainfall forecasting is a challenging task due to the uncertainty of natural phenomena. In this paper, two neural network models are proposed for monthly rainfall rate forecasting. The performance of the proposed model is assesses based on monthly rainfall rate in Ampel, Boyolali, from 2001-2013. The experiment results show that the accuracy of the first model is much better than the accuracy of the second model. Its average accuracy is just above 98%, while the accuracy of the second model is approximately 75%. In additional, both models tend to perform better when the fluctuation of rainfall is low.

  14. Spiking modular neural networks: A neural network modeling approach for hydrological processes

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Kamban Parasuraman; Amin Elshorbagy; Sean K. Carey

    2006-01-01

    .... In this study, a novel neural network model called the spiking modular neural networks (SMNNs) is proposed. An SMNN consists of an input layer, a spiking layer, and an associator neural network layer...

  15. Artificial neural network applications in ionospheric studies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L. R. Cander

    1998-06-01

    Full Text Available The ionosphere of Earth exhibits considerable spatial changes and has large temporal variability of various timescales related to the mechanisms of creation, decay and transport of space ionospheric plasma. Many techniques for modelling electron density profiles through entire ionosphere have been developed in order to solve the "age-old problem" of ionospheric physics which has not yet been fully solved. A new way to address this problem is by applying artificial intelligence methodologies to current large amounts of solar-terrestrial and ionospheric data. It is the aim of this paper to show by the most recent examples that modern development of numerical models for ionospheric monthly median long-term prediction and daily hourly short-term forecasting may proceed successfully applying the artificial neural networks. The performance of these techniques is illustrated with different artificial neural networks developed to model and predict the temporal and spatial variations of ionospheric critical frequency, f0F2 and Total Electron Content (TEC. Comparisons between results obtained by the proposed approaches and measured f0F2 and TEC data provide prospects for future applications of the artificial neural networks in ionospheric studies.

  16. Financial time series prediction using spiking neural networks.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David Reid

    Full Text Available In this paper a novel application of a particular type of spiking neural network, a Polychronous Spiking Network, was used for financial time series prediction. It is argued that the inherent temporal capabilities of this type of network are suited to non-stationary data such as this. The performance of the spiking neural network was benchmarked against three systems: two "traditional", rate-encoded, neural networks; a Multi-Layer Perceptron neural network and a Dynamic Ridge Polynomial neural network, and a standard Linear Predictor Coefficients model. For this comparison three non-stationary and noisy time series were used: IBM stock data; US/Euro exchange rate data, and the price of Brent crude oil. The experiments demonstrated favourable prediction results for the Spiking Neural Network in terms of Annualised Return and prediction error for 5-Step ahead predictions. These results were also supported by other relevant metrics such as Maximum Drawdown and Signal-To-Noise ratio. This work demonstrated the applicability of the Polychronous Spiking Network to financial data forecasting and this in turn indicates the potential of using such networks over traditional systems in difficult to manage non-stationary environments.

  17. An overview of the numerical and neural network accosts of ocean wave prediction

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Mandal, S.; Prabaharan, N.

    This paper presents an overview of the development of the numerical wave prediction models and recently used neural networks for wave hindcasting and forecasting. The numerical wave models express the physical concepts of the phenomena...

  18. Multigradient for Neural Networks for Equalizers

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chulhee Lee

    2003-06-01

    Full Text Available Recently, a new training algorithm, multigradient, has been published for neural networks and it is reported that the multigradient outperforms the backpropagation when neural networks are used as a classifier. When neural networks are used as an equalizer in communications, they can be viewed as a classifier. In this paper, we apply the multigradient algorithm to train the neural networks that are used as equalizers. Experiments show that the neural networks trained using the multigradient noticeably outperforms the neural networks trained by the backpropagation.

  19. Multiprocessor Neural Network in Healthcare.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Godó, Zoltán Attila; Kiss, Gábor; Kocsis, Dénes

    2015-01-01

    A possible way of creating a multiprocessor artificial neural network is by the use of microcontrollers. The RISC processors' high performance and the large number of I/O ports mean they are greatly suitable for creating such a system. During our research, we wanted to see if it is possible to efficiently create interaction between the artifical neural network and the natural nervous system. To achieve as much analogy to the living nervous system as possible, we created a frequency-modulated analog connection between the units. Our system is connected to the living nervous system through 128 microelectrodes. Two-way communication is provided through A/D transformation, which is even capable of testing psychopharmacons. The microcontroller-based analog artificial neural network can play a great role in medical singal processing, such as ECG, EEG etc.

  20. Türkiye’de Enflasyonun İleri ve Geri Beslemeli Yapay Sinir Ağlarının Melez Yaklaşımı ile Öngörüsü = Forecasting of Turkey Inflation with Hybrid of Feed Forward and Recurrent Artifical Neural Networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V. Rezan USLU

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available Obtaining the inflation prediction is an important problem. Having this prediction accurately will lead to more accurate decisions. Various time series techniques have been used in the literature for inflation prediction. Recently, Artificial Neural Network (ANN is being preferred in the time series prediction problem due to its flexible modeling capacity. Artificial neural network can be applied easily to any time series since it does not require prior conditions such as a linear or curved specific model pattern, stationary and normal distribution. In this study, the predictions have been obtained using the feed forward and recurrent artificial neural network for the Consumer Price Index (CPI. A new combined forecast has been proposed based on ANN in which the ANN model predictions employed in analysis were used as data.

  1. Application of a New Hybrid Model with Seasonal Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) and Nonlinear Auto-Regressive Neural Network (NARNN) in Forecasting Incidence Cases of HFMD in Shenzhen, China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tan, Li; Jiang, Hongbo; Wang, Ying; Wei, Sheng; Nie, Shaofa

    2014-01-01

    Background Outbreaks of hand-foot-mouth disease (HFMD) have been reported for many times in Asia during the last decades. This emerging disease has drawn worldwide attention and vigilance. Nowadays, the prevention and control of HFMD has become an imperative issue in China. Early detection and response will be helpful before it happening, using modern information technology during the epidemic. Method In this paper, a hybrid model combining seasonal auto-regressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model and nonlinear auto-regressive neural network (NARNN) is proposed to predict the expected incidence cases from December 2012 to May 2013, using the retrospective observations obtained from China Information System for Disease Control and Prevention from January 2008 to November 2012. Results The best-fitted hybrid model was combined with seasonal ARIMA and NARNN with 15 hidden units and 5 delays. The hybrid model makes the good forecasting performance and estimates the expected incidence cases from December 2012 to May 2013, which are respectively −965.03, −1879.58, 4138.26, 1858.17, 4061.86 and 6163.16 with an obviously increasing trend. Conclusion The model proposed in this paper can predict the incidence trend of HFMD effectively, which could be helpful to policy makers. The usefulness of expected cases of HFMD perform not only in detecting outbreaks or providing probability statements, but also in providing decision makers with a probable trend of the variability of future observations that contains both historical and recent information. PMID:24893000

  2. Prediction of annual water consumption in Guangdong Province based on Bayesian neural network

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tian, Tao; Xue, Huifeng

    2017-06-01

    In the context of the implementation of the most stringent water resources management system, the role of water demand forecasting for regional water resources management is becoming increasingly significant. Based on the analysis of the influencing factors of water consumption in Guangdong Province, we made the forecast index system of annual water consumption, and constructed the forecast model of annual water consumption of BP neural network, then optimized the regularization BP neural network in utilization rate of water. The results showed that the average absolute percentage error of Bayesian neural network prediction model and BP neural network prediction model is 0.70% and 0.46% respectively. BP neural network model by Bayesian regularization is more ability to improve the accuracy of about 0.24%, more in line with the regional annual water demand forecast high precision requirements. Take the planning index value of Guangdong Province’s thirteen five plan into Bayesian neural network forecasting model, and its forecast value is 45.432 billion cubic meters, which will reach 456.04 billion cubic meters of red water in Guangdong Province in 2020.

  3. Wavelet neural networks with applications in financial engineering, chaos, and classification

    CERN Document Server

    Alexandridis, Antonios K

    2014-01-01

    Through extensive examples and case studies, Wavelet Neural Networks provides a step-by-step introduction to modeling, training, and forecasting using wavelet networks. The acclaimed authors present a statistical model identification framework to successfully apply wavelet networks in various applications, specifically, providing the mathematical and statistical framework needed for model selection, variable selection, wavelet network construction, initialization, training, forecasting and prediction, confidence intervals, prediction intervals, and model adequacy testing. The text is ideal for

  4. Generalization performance of regularized neural network models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larsen, Jan; Hansen, Lars Kai

    1994-01-01

    Architecture optimization is a fundamental problem of neural network modeling. The optimal architecture is defined as the one which minimizes the generalization error. This paper addresses estimation of the generalization performance of regularized, complete neural network models. Regularization...

  5. voltage compensation using artificial neural network

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Offor Theophilos

    VOLTAGE COMPENSATION USING ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORK: A CASE STUDY OF. RUMUOLA ... using artificial neural network (ANN) controller based dynamic voltage restorer (DVR). ... substation by simulating with sample of average voltage for Omerelu, Waterlines, Rumuola, Shell Industrial and Barracks.

  6. Plant Growth Models Using Artificial Neural Networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bubenheim, David

    1997-01-01

    In this paper, we descrive our motivation and approach to devloping models and the neural network architecture. Initial use of the artificial neural network for modeling the single plant process of transpiration is presented.

  7. Neural networks and applications tutorial

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guyon, I.

    1991-09-01

    The importance of neural networks has grown dramatically during this decade. While only a few years ago they were primarily of academic interest, now dozens of companies and many universities are investigating the potential use of these systems and products are beginning to appear. The idea of building a machine whose architecture is inspired by that of the brain has roots which go far back in history. Nowadays, technological advances of computers and the availability of custom integrated circuits, permit simulations of hundreds or even thousands of neurons. In conjunction, the growing interest in learning machines, non-linear dynamics and parallel computation spurred renewed attention in artificial neural networks. Many tentative applications have been proposed, including decision systems (associative memories, classifiers, data compressors and optimizers), or parametric models for signal processing purposes (system identification, automatic control, noise canceling, etc.). While they do not always outperform standard methods, neural network approaches are already used in some real world applications for pattern recognition and signal processing tasks. The tutorial is divided into six lectures, that where presented at the Third Graduate Summer Course on Computational Physics (September 3-7, 1990) on Parallel Architectures and Applications, organized by the European Physical Society: (1) Introduction: machine learning and biological computation. (2) Adaptive artificial neurons (perceptron, ADALINE, sigmoid units, etc.): learning rules and implementations. (3) Neural network systems: architectures, learning algorithms. (4) Applications: pattern recognition, signal processing, etc. (5) Elements of learning theory: how to build networks which generalize. (6) A case study: a neural network for on-line recognition of handwritten alphanumeric characters.

  8. Optoelectronic Implementation of Neural Networks

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Home; Journals; Resonance – Journal of Science Education; Volume 3; Issue 9. Optoelectronic Implementation of Neural Networks - Use of Optics in Computing. R Ramachandran. General Article Volume 3 Issue 9 September 1998 pp 45-55. Fulltext. Click here to view fulltext PDF. Permanent link:

  9. Aphasia Classification Using Neural Networks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Axer, H.; Jantzen, Jan; Berks, G.

    2000-01-01

    A web-based software model (http://fuzzy.iau.dtu.dk/aphasia.nsf) was developed as an example for classification of aphasia using neural networks. Two multilayer perceptrons were used to classify the type of aphasia (Broca, Wernicke, anomic, global) according to the results in some subtests...

  10. Back-propagation neural network in tidal-level forecasting by Ching-PiaoTsai and Tsong-Lin Lee - Discussion

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Mandal, S.

    - uary 1, 1996, data, if one chooses another day, say, February 1, 1996, for the training stage, one would expect an entirely different set of connection weights (20 in number) resulting in different forecast errors. The discussers feel that, in a system... depending largely on planetary movements, the connection weights w ij and w jk obtained from such a limited data will not adequately represent the dynamics of the system. Therefore, the above set of values w ij and w jk , which are unlikely to be stabilized...

  11. Analysis of neural networks through base functions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van der Zwaag, B.J.; Slump, Cornelis H.; Spaanenburg, L.

    Problem statement. Despite their success-story, neural networks have one major disadvantage compared to other techniques: the inability to explain comprehensively how a trained neural network reaches its output; neural networks are not only (incorrectly) seen as a "magic tool" but possibly even more

  12. Simplified LQG Control with Neural Networks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sørensen, O.

    1997-01-01

    A new neural network application for non-linear state control is described. One neural network is modelled to form a Kalmann predictor and trained to act as an optimal state observer for a non-linear process. Another neural network is modelled to form a state controller and trained to produce...

  13. Novel quantum inspired binary neural network algorithm

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    In this paper, a quantum based binary neural network algorithm is proposed, named as novel quantum binary neural network algorithm (NQ-BNN). It forms a neural network structure by deciding weights and separability parameter in quantum based manner. Quantum computing concept represents solution probabilistically ...

  14. Type-2 fuzzy neural networks and their applications

    CERN Document Server

    Aliev, Rafik Aziz

    2014-01-01

    This book deals with the theory, design principles, and application of hybrid intelligent systems using type-2 fuzzy sets in combination with other paradigms of Soft Computing technology such as Neuro-Computing and Evolutionary Computing. It provides a self-contained exposition of the foundation of type-2 fuzzy neural networks and presents a vast compendium of its applications to control, forecasting, decision making, system identification and other real problems. Type-2 Fuzzy Neural Networks and Their Applications is helpful for teachers and students of universities and colleges, for scientis

  15. Usefulness of Artificial Neural Networks for Predicting Financial and Economic Crisis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mioara CHIRITA

    2012-08-01

    Full Text Available The objective of the present study is to explore the issue of the forecasting of economic crisis using the neural network. The subject is of great importance in the economy, more so as that most countries affected by crisis, declared at the end of 2010, the economic growth but the crisis paralyzed the financial world over the past three years. Neural network techniques have been frequently applied in order to predict problems like economic forecasting. The results show that creating a model using the neural networks might be a powerful tool and could be applied to prevent economic crises.

  16. Dynamic properties of cellular neural networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Angela Slavova

    1993-01-01

    Full Text Available Dynamic behavior of a new class of information-processing systems called Cellular Neural Networks is investigated. In this paper we introduce a small parameter in the state equation of a cellular neural network and we seek for periodic phenomena. New approach is used for proving stability of a cellular neural network by constructing Lyapunov's majorizing equations. This algorithm is helpful for finding a map from initial continuous state space of a cellular neural network into discrete output. A comparison between cellular neural networks and cellular automata is made.

  17. Using neural networks for prediction of air pollution index in industrial city

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rahman, P. A.; Panchenko, A. A.; Safarov, A. M.

    2017-10-01

    This scientific paper is dedicated to the use of artificial neural networks for the ecological prediction of state of the atmospheric air of an industrial city for capability of the operative environmental decisions. In the paper, there is also the described development of two types of prediction models for determining of the air pollution index on the basis of neural networks: a temporal (short-term forecast of the pollutants content in the air for the nearest days) and a spatial (forecast of atmospheric pollution index in any point of city). The stages of development of the neural network models are briefly overviewed and description of their parameters is also given. The assessment of the adequacy of the prediction models, based on the calculation of the correlation coefficient between the output and reference data, is also provided. Moreover, due to the complexity of perception of the «neural network code» of the offered models by the ordinary users, the software implementations allowing practical usage of neural network models are also offered. It is established that the obtained neural network models provide sufficient reliable forecast, which means that they are an effective tool for analyzing and predicting the behavior of dynamics of the air pollution in an industrial city. Thus, this scientific work successfully develops the urgent matter of forecasting of the atmospheric air pollution index in industrial cities based on the use of neural network models.

  18. Neural Networks Methodology and Applications

    CERN Document Server

    Dreyfus, Gérard

    2005-01-01

    Neural networks represent a powerful data processing technique that has reached maturity and broad application. When clearly understood and appropriately used, they are a mandatory component in the toolbox of any engineer who wants make the best use of the available data, in order to build models, make predictions, mine data, recognize shapes or signals, etc. Ranging from theoretical foundations to real-life applications, this book is intended to provide engineers and researchers with clear methodologies for taking advantage of neural networks in industrial, financial or banking applications, many instances of which are presented in the book. For the benefit of readers wishing to gain deeper knowledge of the topics, the book features appendices that provide theoretical details for greater insight, and algorithmic details for efficient programming and implementation. The chapters have been written by experts ands seemlessly edited to present a coherent and comprehensive, yet not redundant, practically-oriented...

  19. Using Adaptive Neural-Fuzzy Inference Systems (ANFIS for Demand Forecasting and an Application

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Onur Doğan

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Due to the rapid increase in global competition among organizations and companies, rational approaches in decision making have become indispensable for organizations in today’s world. Establishing a safe and robust path through uncertainties and risks depends on the decision units’ ability of using scientific methods as well as technology. Demand forecasting is known to be one of the most critical problems in organizations.  A company which supports its demand forecasting mechanism with scientific methodologies could increase its productivity and efficiency in all other functions. New methods, such as fuzzy logic and artificial neural networks are frequently being used as a decision-making mechanism in organizations and companies recently.  In this study, it is aimed to solve a critical demand forecasting problem with ANFIS. In the first phase of the study, the factors which impact demand forecasting are determined, and then a database of the model is established using these factors. It has been shown that ANFIS could be used for demand forecasting.

  20. The LILARTI neural network system

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Allen, J.D. Jr.; Schell, F.M.; Dodd, C.V.

    1992-10-01

    The material of this Technical Memorandum is intended to provide the reader with conceptual and technical background information on the LILARTI neural network system of detail sufficient to confer an understanding of the LILARTI method as it is presently allied and to facilitate application of the method to problems beyond the scope of this document. Of particular importance in this regard are the descriptive sections and the Appendices which include operating instructions, partial listings of program output and data files, and network construction information.

  1. Workshop on environmental and energy applications of neural networks

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hashem, S.

    1995-03-01

    This report consists of the abstracts for the papers given at the conference. Applications of neural networks in the environmental, energy and biomedical fields are discussed. Some of the topics covered are: predicting atmospheric pollutant concentrations due to fossil-fired electric power generation; hazardous waste characterization; nondestructive TRU (transuranic) waste assay; risk analysis; load forecasting for electric utilities; design of a wind power storage and generation system; nuclear fuel management; etc.

  2. Practical neural network recipies in C++

    CERN Document Server

    Masters

    2014-01-01

    This text serves as a cookbook for neural network solutions to practical problems using C++. It will enable those with moderate programming experience to select a neural network model appropriate to solving a particular problem, and to produce a working program implementing that network. The book provides guidance along the entire problem-solving path, including designing the training set, preprocessing variables, training and validating the network, and evaluating its performance. Though the book is not intended as a general course in neural networks, no background in neural works is assum

  3. Wavelet Network Model Based on Multiple Criteria Decision Making for Forecasting Temperature Time Series

    OpenAIRE

    Zhang, Jian; Yang, Xiao-hua; Chen, Xiao-juan

    2015-01-01

    Due to nonlinear and multiscale characteristics of temperature time series, a new model called wavelet network model based on multiple criteria decision making (WNMCDM) has been proposed, which combines the advantage of wavelet analysis, multiple criteria decision making, and artificial neural network. One case for forecasting extreme monthly maximum temperature of Miyun Reservoir has been conducted to examine the performance of WNMCDM model. Compared with nearest neighbor bootstrapping regr...

  4. Neural network modeling of emotion

    Science.gov (United States)

    Levine, Daniel S.

    2007-03-01

    This article reviews the history and development of computational neural network modeling of cognitive and behavioral processes that involve emotion. The exposition starts with models of classical conditioning dating from the early 1970s. Then it proceeds toward models of interactions between emotion and attention. Then models of emotional influences on decision making are reviewed, including some speculative (not and not yet simulated) models of the evolution of decision rules. Through the late 1980s, the neural networks developed to model emotional processes were mainly embodiments of significant functional principles motivated by psychological data. In the last two decades, network models of these processes have become much more detailed in their incorporation of known physiological properties of specific brain regions, while preserving many of the psychological principles from the earlier models. Most network models of emotional processes so far have dealt with positive and negative emotion in general, rather than specific emotions such as fear, joy, sadness, and anger. But a later section of this article reviews a few models relevant to specific emotions: one family of models of auditory fear conditioning in rats, and one model of induced pleasure enhancing creativity in humans. Then models of emotional disorders are reviewed. The article concludes with philosophical statements about the essential contributions of emotion to intelligent behavior and the importance of quantitative theories and models to the interdisciplinary enterprise of understanding the interactions of emotion, cognition, and behavior.

  5. MEMBRAIN NEURAL NETWORK FOR VISUAL PATTERN RECOGNITION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Artur Popko

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available Recognition of visual patterns is one of significant applications of Artificial Neural Networks, which partially emulate human thinking in the domain of artificial intelligence. In the paper, a simplified neural approach to recognition of visual patterns is portrayed and discussed. This paper is dedicated for investigators in visual patterns recognition, Artificial Neural Networking and related disciplines. The document describes also MemBrain application environment as a powerful and easy to use neural networks’ editor and simulator supporting ANN.

  6. On Efficient Data Reduction for Network Partition Forecasting in WSNs

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Faisal Karim Shaikh

    2011-04-01

    Full Text Available WSNs (Wireless Sensor Networks are generally deployed for long-lived missions. However, they rely on finite energy resources which lead to network partitioning. Network partitioning limits the dependability of WSN by making relevant spatial regions disconnected thus requiring the maintenance of the network. The network maintenance necessitates early warning and consequently forecasting of the network partitioning such that some early action can be taken to mitigate the problem. There exist approaches allowing for detection of network partitioning but none for its forecasting. We present an efficient approach for a proactive network ParFor (Partition Forecasting based on energy maps. ParFor implements spatial and temporal suppression mechanisms such that from energy weak regions only a few nodes report short alarms to the sink. Using these alarms the forecasting is done centrally at the sink. Using simulations we highlight the efficiency and accuracy of ParFor.

  7. Satellite image analysis using neural networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sheldon, Roger A.

    1990-01-01

    The tremendous backlog of unanalyzed satellite data necessitates the development of improved methods for data cataloging and analysis. Ford Aerospace has developed an image analysis system, SIANN (Satellite Image Analysis using Neural Networks) that integrates the technologies necessary to satisfy NASA's science data analysis requirements for the next generation of satellites. SIANN will enable scientists to train a neural network to recognize image data containing scenes of interest and then rapidly search data archives for all such images. The approach combines conventional image processing technology with recent advances in neural networks to provide improved classification capabilities. SIANN allows users to proceed through a four step process of image classification: filtering and enhancement, creation of neural network training data via application of feature extraction algorithms, configuring and training a neural network model, and classification of images by application of the trained neural network. A prototype experimentation testbed was completed and applied to climatological data.

  8. Fuzzy neural networks: theory and applications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gupta, Madan M.

    1994-10-01

    During recent years, significant advances have been made in two distinct technological areas: fuzzy logic and computational neural networks. The theory of fuzzy logic provides a mathematical framework to capture the uncertainties associated with human cognitive processes, such as thinking and reasoning. It also provides a mathematical morphology to emulate certain perceptual and linguistic attributes associated with human cognition. On the other hand, the computational neural network paradigms have evolved in the process of understanding the incredible learning and adaptive features of neuronal mechanisms inherent in certain biological species. Computational neural networks replicate, on a small scale, some of the computational operations observed in biological learning and adaptation. The integration of these two fields, fuzzy logic and neural networks, have given birth to an emerging technological field -- fuzzy neural networks. Fuzzy neural networks, have the potential to capture the benefits of these two fascinating fields, fuzzy logic and neural networks, into a single framework. The intent of this tutorial paper is to describe the basic notions of biological and computational neuronal morphologies, and to describe the principles and architectures of fuzzy neural networks. Towards this goal, we develop a fuzzy neural architecture based upon the notion of T-norm and T-conorm connectives. An error-based learning scheme is described for this neural structure.

  9. Pediatric Nutritional Requirements Determination with Neural Networks

    OpenAIRE

    Karlık, Bekir; Ece, Aydın

    1998-01-01

    To calculate daily nutritional requirements of children, a computer program has been developed based upon neural network. Three parameters, daily protein, energy and water requirements, were calculated through trained artificial neural networks using a database of 312 children The results were compared with those of calculated from dietary requirements tables of World Health Organisation. No significant difference was found between two calculations. In conclusion, a simple neural network may ...

  10. Adaptive optimization and control using neural networks

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mead, W.C.; Brown, S.K.; Jones, R.D.; Bowling, P.S.; Barnes, C.W.

    1993-10-22

    Recent work has demonstrated the ability of neural-network-based controllers to optimize and control machines with complex, non-linear, relatively unknown control spaces. We present a brief overview of neural networks via a taxonomy illustrating some capabilities of different kinds of neural networks. We present some successful control examples, particularly the optimization and control of a small-angle negative ion source.

  11. Bayesian regularization of neural networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burden, Frank; Winkler, Dave

    2008-01-01

    Bayesian regularized artificial neural networks (BRANNs) are more robust than standard back-propagation nets and can reduce or eliminate the need for lengthy cross-validation. Bayesian regularization is a mathematical process that converts a nonlinear regression into a "well-posed" statistical problem in the manner of a ridge regression. The advantage of BRANNs is that the models are robust and the validation process, which scales as O(N2) in normal regression methods, such as back propagation, is unnecessary. These networks provide solutions to a number of problems that arise in QSAR modeling, such as choice of model, robustness of model, choice of validation set, size of validation effort, and optimization of network architecture. They are difficult to overtrain, since evidence procedures provide an objective Bayesian criterion for stopping training. They are also difficult to overfit, because the BRANN calculates and trains on a number of effective network parameters or weights, effectively turning off those that are not relevant. This effective number is usually considerably smaller than the number of weights in a standard fully connected back-propagation neural net. Automatic relevance determination (ARD) of the input variables can be used with BRANNs, and this allows the network to "estimate" the importance of each input. The ARD method ensures that irrelevant or highly correlated indices used in the modeling are neglected as well as showing which are the most important variables for modeling the activity data. This chapter outlines the equations that define the BRANN method plus a flowchart for producing a BRANN-QSAR model. Some results of the use of BRANNs on a number of data sets are illustrated and compared with other linear and nonlinear models.

  12. Neural networks for nuclear spectroscopy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Keller, P.E.; Kangas, L.J.; Hashem, S.; Kouzes, R.T. [Pacific Northwest Lab., Richland, WA (United States)] [and others

    1995-12-31

    In this paper two applications of artificial neural networks (ANNs) in nuclear spectroscopy analysis are discussed. In the first application, an ANN assigns quality coefficients to alpha particle energy spectra. These spectra are used to detect plutonium contamination in the work environment. The quality coefficients represent the levels of spectral degradation caused by miscalibration and foreign matter affecting the instruments. A set of spectra was labeled with quality coefficients by an expert and used to train the ANN expert system. Our investigation shows that the expert knowledge of spectral quality can be transferred to an ANN system. The second application combines a portable gamma-ray spectrometer with an ANN. In this system the ANN is used to automatically identify, radioactive isotopes in real-time from their gamma-ray spectra. Two neural network paradigms are examined: the linear perception and the optimal linear associative memory (OLAM). A comparison of the two paradigms shows that OLAM is superior to linear perception for this application. Both networks have a linear response and are useful in determining the composition of an unknown sample when the spectrum of the unknown is a linear superposition of known spectra. One feature of this technique is that it uses the whole spectrum in the identification process instead of only the individual photo-peaks. For this reason, it is potentially more useful for processing data from lower resolution gamma-ray spectrometers. This approach has been tested with data generated by Monte Carlo simulations and with field data from sodium iodide and Germanium detectors. With the ANN approach, the intense computation takes place during the training process. Once the network is trained, normal operation consists of propagating the data through the network, which results in rapid identification of samples. This approach is useful in situations that require fast response where precise quantification is less important.

  13. Neural network based system for equipment surveillance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vilim, R.B.; Gross, K.C.; Wegerich, S.W.

    1998-04-28

    A method and system are disclosed for performing surveillance of transient signals of an industrial device to ascertain the operating state. The method and system involves the steps of reading into a memory training data, determining neural network weighting values until achieving target outputs close to the neural network output. If the target outputs are inadequate, wavelet parameters are determined to yield neural network outputs close to the desired set of target outputs and then providing signals characteristic of an industrial process and comparing the neural network output to the industrial process signals to evaluate the operating state of the industrial process. 33 figs.

  14. Fuzzy neural network theory and application

    CERN Document Server

    Liu, Puyin

    2004-01-01

    This book systematically synthesizes research achievements in the field of fuzzy neural networks in recent years. It also provides a comprehensive presentation of the developments in fuzzy neural networks, with regard to theory as well as their application to system modeling and image restoration. Special emphasis is placed on the fundamental concepts and architecture analysis of fuzzy neural networks. The book is unique in treating all kinds of fuzzy neural networks and their learning algorithms and universal approximations, and employing simulation examples which are carefully designed to he

  15. Pansharpening by Convolutional Neural Networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Giuseppe Masi

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available A new pansharpening method is proposed, based on convolutional neural networks. We adapt a simple and effective three-layer architecture recently proposed for super-resolution to the pansharpening problem. Moreover, to improve performance without increasing complexity, we augment the input by including several maps of nonlinear radiometric indices typical of remote sensing. Experiments on three representative datasets show the proposed method to provide very promising results, largely competitive with the current state of the art in terms of both full-reference and no-reference metrics, and also at a visual inspection.

  16. Neural networks and perceptual learning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tsodyks, Misha; Gilbert, Charles

    2005-01-01

    Sensory perception is a learned trait. The brain strategies we use to perceive the world are constantly modified by experience. With practice, we subconsciously become better at identifying familiar objects or distinguishing fine details in our environment. Current theoretical models simulate some properties of perceptual learning, but neglect the underlying cortical circuits. Future neural network models must incorporate the top-down alteration of cortical function by expectation or perceptual tasks. These newly found dynamic processes are challenging earlier views of static and feedforward processing of sensory information. PMID:15483598

  17. Optimization with Potts Neural Networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Söderberg, Bo

    The Potts Neural Network approach to non-binary discrete optimization problems is described. It applies to problems that can be described as a set of elementary `multiple choice' options. Instead of the conventional binary (Ising) neurons, mean field Potts neurons, having several available states, are used to describe the elementary degrees of freedom of such problems. The dynamics consists of iterating the mean field equations with annealing until convergence. Due to its deterministic character, the method is quite fast. When applied to problems of Graph Partition and scheduling types, it produces very good solutions also for problems of considerable size.

  18. An Intelligent Ensemble Neural Network Model for Wind Speed Prediction in Renewable Energy Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ranganayaki, V.; Deepa, S. N.

    2016-01-01

    Various criteria are proposed to select the number of hidden neurons in artificial neural network (ANN) models and based on the criterion evolved an intelligent ensemble neural network model is proposed to predict wind speed in renewable energy applications. The intelligent ensemble neural model based wind speed forecasting is designed by averaging the forecasted values from multiple neural network models which includes multilayer perceptron (MLP), multilayer adaptive linear neuron (Madaline), back propagation neural network (BPN), and probabilistic neural network (PNN) so as to obtain better accuracy in wind speed prediction with minimum error. The random selection of hidden neurons numbers in artificial neural network results in overfitting or underfitting problem. This paper aims to avoid the occurrence of overfitting and underfitting problems. The selection of number of hidden neurons is done in this paper employing 102 criteria; these evolved criteria are verified by the computed various error values. The proposed criteria for fixing hidden neurons are validated employing the convergence theorem. The proposed intelligent ensemble neural model is applied for wind speed prediction application considering the real time wind data collected from the nearby locations. The obtained simulation results substantiate that the proposed ensemble model reduces the error value to minimum and enhances the accuracy. The computed results prove the effectiveness of the proposed ensemble neural network (ENN) model with respect to the considered error factors in comparison with that of the earlier models available in the literature. PMID:27034973

  19. An Intelligent Ensemble Neural Network Model for Wind Speed Prediction in Renewable Energy Systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ranganayaki, V; Deepa, S N

    2016-01-01

    Various criteria are proposed to select the number of hidden neurons in artificial neural network (ANN) models and based on the criterion evolved an intelligent ensemble neural network model is proposed to predict wind speed in renewable energy applications. The intelligent ensemble neural model based wind speed forecasting is designed by averaging the forecasted values from multiple neural network models which includes multilayer perceptron (MLP), multilayer adaptive linear neuron (Madaline), back propagation neural network (BPN), and probabilistic neural network (PNN) so as to obtain better accuracy in wind speed prediction with minimum error. The random selection of hidden neurons numbers in artificial neural network results in overfitting or underfitting problem. This paper aims to avoid the occurrence of overfitting and underfitting problems. The selection of number of hidden neurons is done in this paper employing 102 criteria; these evolved criteria are verified by the computed various error values. The proposed criteria for fixing hidden neurons are validated employing the convergence theorem. The proposed intelligent ensemble neural model is applied for wind speed prediction application considering the real time wind data collected from the nearby locations. The obtained simulation results substantiate that the proposed ensemble model reduces the error value to minimum and enhances the accuracy. The computed results prove the effectiveness of the proposed ensemble neural network (ENN) model with respect to the considered error factors in comparison with that of the earlier models available in the literature.

  20. Three dimensional living neural networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Linnenberger, Anna; McLeod, Robert R.; Basta, Tamara; Stowell, Michael H. B.

    2015-08-01

    We investigate holographic optical tweezing combined with step-and-repeat maskless projection micro-stereolithography for fine control of 3D positioning of living cells within a 3D microstructured hydrogel grid. Samples were fabricated using three different cell lines; PC12, NT2/D1 and iPSC. PC12 cells are a rat cell line capable of differentiation into neuron-like cells NT2/D1 cells are a human cell line that exhibit biochemical and developmental properties similar to that of an early embryo and when exposed to retinoic acid the cells differentiate into human neurons useful for studies of human neurological disease. Finally induced pluripotent stem cells (iPSC) were utilized with the goal of future studies of neural networks fabricated from human iPSC derived neurons. Cells are positioned in the monomer solution with holographic optical tweezers at 1064 nm and then are encapsulated by photopolymerization of polyethylene glycol (PEG) hydrogels formed by thiol-ene photo-click chemistry via projection of a 512x512 spatial light modulator (SLM) illuminated at 405 nm. Fabricated samples are incubated in differentiation media such that cells cease to divide and begin to form axons or axon-like structures. By controlling the position of the cells within the encapsulating hydrogel structure the formation of the neural circuits is controlled. The samples fabricated with this system are a useful model for future studies of neural circuit formation, neurological disease, cellular communication, plasticity, and repair mechanisms.

  1. The Laplacian spectrum of neural networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Lange, Siemon C.; de Reus, Marcel A.; van den Heuvel, Martijn P.

    2014-01-01

    The brain is a complex network of neural interactions, both at the microscopic and macroscopic level. Graph theory is well suited to examine the global network architecture of these neural networks. Many popular graph metrics, however, encode average properties of individual network elements. Complementing these “conventional” graph metrics, the eigenvalue spectrum of the normalized Laplacian describes a network's structure directly at a systems level, without referring to individual nodes or connections. In this paper, the Laplacian spectra of the macroscopic anatomical neuronal networks of the macaque and cat, and the microscopic network of the Caenorhabditis elegans were examined. Consistent with conventional graph metrics, analysis of the Laplacian spectra revealed an integrative community structure in neural brain networks. Extending previous findings of overlap of network attributes across species, similarity of the Laplacian spectra across the cat, macaque and C. elegans neural networks suggests a certain level of consistency in the overall architecture of the anatomical neural networks of these species. Our results further suggest a specific network class for neural networks, distinct from conceptual small-world and scale-free models as well as several empirical networks. PMID:24454286

  2. Neural networks with discontinuous/impact activations

    CERN Document Server

    Akhmet, Marat

    2014-01-01

    This book presents as its main subject new models in mathematical neuroscience. A wide range of neural networks models with discontinuities are discussed, including impulsive differential equations, differential equations with piecewise constant arguments, and models of mixed type. These models involve discontinuities, which are natural because huge velocities and short distances are usually observed in devices modeling the networks. A discussion of the models, appropriate for the proposed applications, is also provided. This book also: Explores questions related to the biological underpinning for models of neural networks\\ Considers neural networks modeling using differential equations with impulsive and piecewise constant argument discontinuities Provides all necessary mathematical basics for application to the theory of neural networks Neural Networks with Discontinuous/Impact Activations is an ideal book for researchers and professionals in the field of engineering mathematics that have an interest in app...

  3. Hindcasting of storm waves using neural networks

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Rao, S.; Mandal, S.

    of any exogenous input requirement makes the network attractive. A neural network is an information processing system modeled on the structure of the human brain. Its merit is the ability to deal with fuzzy information whose interrelation is ambiguous...

  4. Drift chamber tracking with neural networks

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lindsey, C.S.; Denby, B.; Haggerty, H.

    1992-10-01

    We discuss drift chamber tracking with a commercial log VLSI neural network chip. Voltages proportional to the drift times in a 4-layer drift chamber were presented to the Intel ETANN chip. The network was trained to provide the intercept and slope of straight tracks traversing the chamber. The outputs were recorded and later compared off line to conventional track fits. Two types of network architectures were studied. Applications of neural network tracking to high energy physics detector triggers is discussed.

  5. Neural network optimization, components, and design selection

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weller, Scott W.

    1991-01-01

    Neural Networks are part of a revived technology which has received a lot of hype in recent years. As is apt to happen in any hyped technology, jargon and predictions make its assimilation and application difficult. Nevertheless, Neural Networks have found use in a number of areas, working on non-trivial and non-contrived problems. For example, one net has been trained to "read", translating English text into phoneme sequences. Other applications of Neural Networks include data base manipulation and the solving of routing and classification types of optimization problems. It was their use in optimization that got me involved with Neural Networks. As it turned out, "optimization" used in this context was somewhat misleading, because while some network configurations could indeed solve certain kinds of optimization problems, the configuring or "training" of a Neural Network itself is an optimization problem, and most of the literature which talked about Neural Nets and optimization in the same breath did not speak to my goal of using Neural Nets to help solve lens optimization problems. I did eventually apply Neural Network to lens optimization, and I will touch on those results. The application of Neural Nets to the problem of lens selection was much more successful, and those results will dominate this paper.

  6. Multiobjective training of artificial neural networks for rainfall-runoff modeling

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    De Vos, N.J.; Rientjes, T.H.M.

    2008-01-01

    This paper presents results on the application of various optimization algorithms for the training of artificial neural network rainfall-runoff models. Multilayered feed-forward networks for forecasting discharge from two mesoscale catchments in different climatic regions have been developed for

  7. 1991 IEEE International Joint Conference on Neural Networks, Singapore, Nov. 18-21, 1991, Proceedings. Vols. 1-3

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1991-01-01

    The present conference the application of neural networks to associative memories, neurorecognition, hybrid systems, supervised and unsupervised learning, image processing, neurophysiology, sensation and perception, electrical neurocomputers, optimization, robotics, machine vision, sensorimotor control systems, and neurodynamics. Attention is given to such topics as optimal associative mappings in recurrent networks, self-improving associative neural network models, fuzzy activation functions, adaptive pattern recognition with sparse associative networks, efficient question-answering in a hybrid system, the use of abstractions by neural networks, remote-sensing pattern classification, speech recognition with guided propagation, inverse-step competitive learning, and rotational quadratic function neural networks. Also discussed are electrical load forecasting, evolutionarily stable and unstable strategies, the capacity of recurrent networks, neural net vs control theory, perceptrons for image recognition, storage capacity of bidirectional associative memories, associative random optimization for control, automatic synthesis of digital neural architectures, self-learning robot vision, and the associative dynamics of chaotic neural networks.

  8. Radiation Behavior of Analog Neural Network Chip

    Science.gov (United States)

    Langenbacher, H.; Zee, F.; Daud, T.; Thakoor, A.

    1996-01-01

    A neural network experiment conducted for the Space Technology Research Vehicle (STRV-1) 1-b launched in June 1994. Identical sets of analog feed-forward neural network chips was used to study and compare the effects of space and ground radiation on the chips. Three failure mechanisms are noted.

  9. Neural network approach to parton distributions fitting

    CERN Document Server

    Piccione, Andrea; Forte, Stefano; Latorre, Jose I.; Rojo, Joan; Piccione, Andrea; Rojo, Joan

    2006-01-01

    We will show an application of neural networks to extract information on the structure of hadrons. A Monte Carlo over experimental data is performed to correctly reproduce data errors and correlations. A neural network is then trained on each Monte Carlo replica via a genetic algorithm. Results on the proton and deuteron structure functions, and on the nonsinglet parton distribution will be shown.

  10. Self-organization of neural networks

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Clark, J.W.; Winston, J.V.; Rafelski, J.

    1984-05-14

    The plastic development of a neural-network model operating autonomously in discrete time is described by the temporal modification of interneuronal coupling strengths according to momentary neural activity. A simple algorithm (brainwashing) is found which, applied to nets with initially quasirandom connectivity, leads to model networks with properties conducive to the simulation of memory and learning phenomena. 18 references, 2 figures.

  11. Medical image analysis with artificial neural networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jiang, J; Trundle, P; Ren, J

    2010-12-01

    Given that neural networks have been widely reported in the research community of medical imaging, we provide a focused literature survey on recent neural network developments in computer-aided diagnosis, medical image segmentation and edge detection towards visual content analysis, and medical image registration for its pre-processing and post-processing, with the aims of increasing awareness of how neural networks can be applied to these areas and to provide a foundation for further research and practical development. Representative techniques and algorithms are explained in detail to provide inspiring examples illustrating: (i) how a known neural network with fixed structure and training procedure could be applied to resolve a medical imaging problem; (ii) how medical images could be analysed, processed, and characterised by neural networks; and (iii) how neural networks could be expanded further to resolve problems relevant to medical imaging. In the concluding section, a highlight of comparisons among many neural network applications is included to provide a global view on computational intelligence with neural networks in medical imaging. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  12. Hidden neural networks: application to speech recognition

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Riis, Søren Kamaric

    1998-01-01

    We evaluate the hidden neural network HMM/NN hybrid on two speech recognition benchmark tasks; (1) task independent isolated word recognition on the Phonebook database, and (2) recognition of broad phoneme classes in continuous speech from the TIMIT database. It is shown how hidden neural networks...

  13. Genetic Algorithm Optimized Neural Networks Ensemble as ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Improvements in neural network calibration models by a novel approach using neural network ensemble (NNE) for the simultaneous spectrophotometric multicomponent analysis are suggested, with a study on the estimation of the components of an antihypertensive combination, namely, atenolol and losartan potassium.

  14. Neural Networks for Non-linear Control

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sørensen, O.

    1994-01-01

    This paper describes how a neural network, structured as a Multi Layer Perceptron, is trained to predict, simulate and control a non-linear process.......This paper describes how a neural network, structured as a Multi Layer Perceptron, is trained to predict, simulate and control a non-linear process....

  15. Application of Neural Networks for Energy Reconstruction

    CERN Document Server

    Damgov, Jordan

    2002-01-01

    The possibility to use Neural Networks for reconstruction ofthe energy deposited in the calorimetry system of the CMS detector is investigated. It is shown that using feed-forward neural network, good linearity, Gaussian energy distribution and good energy resolution can be achieved. Significant improvement of the energy resolution and linearity is reached in comparison with other weighting methods for energy reconstruction.

  16. Neural Network to Solve Concave Games

    OpenAIRE

    Zixin Liu; Nengfa Wang

    2014-01-01

    The issue on neural network method to solve concave games is concerned. Combined with variational inequality, Ky Fan inequality, and projection equation, concave games are transformed into a neural network model. On the basis of the Lyapunov stable theory, some stability results are also given. Finally, two classic games’ simulation results are given to illustrate the theoretical results.

  17. Recognizing changing seasonal patterns using neural networks

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ph.H.B.F. Franses (Philip Hans); G. Draisma (Gerrit)

    1997-01-01

    textabstractIn this paper we propose a graphical method based on an artificial neural network model to investigate how and when seasonal patterns in macroeconomic time series change over time. Neural networks are useful since the hidden layer units may become activated only in certain seasons or

  18. Adaptive Neurons For Artificial Neural Networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tawel, Raoul

    1990-01-01

    Training time decreases dramatically. In improved mathematical model of neural-network processor, temperature of neurons (in addition to connection strengths, also called weights, of synapses) varied during supervised-learning phase of operation according to mathematical formalism and not heuristic rule. Evidence that biological neural networks also process information at neuronal level.

  19. Analysis of surface ozone using a recurrent neural network.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Biancofiore, Fabio; Verdecchia, Marco; Di Carlo, Piero; Tomassetti, Barbara; Aruffo, Eleonora; Busilacchio, Marcella; Bianco, Sebastiano; Di Tommaso, Sinibaldo; Colangeli, Carlo

    2015-05-01

    Hourly concentrations of ozone (O₃) and nitrogen dioxide (NO₂) have been measured for 16 years, from 1998 to 2013, in a seaside town in central Italy. The seasonal trends of O₃ and NO₂ recorded in this period have been studied. Furthermore, we used the data collected during one year (2005), to define the characteristics of a multiple linear regression model and a neural network model. Both models are used to model the hourly O₃ concentration, using, two scenarios: 1) in the first as inputs, only meteorological parameters and 2) in the second adding photochemical parameters at those of the first scenario. In order to evaluate the performance of the model four statistical criteria are used: correlation coefficient, fractional bias, normalized mean squared error and a factor of two. All the criteria show that the neural network gives better results, compared to the regression model, in all the model scenarios. Predictions of O₃ have been carried out by many authors using a feed forward neural architecture. In this paper we show that a recurrent architecture significantly improves the performances of neural predictors. Using only the meteorological parameters as input, the recurrent architecture shows performance better than the multiple linear regression model that uses meteorological and photochemical data as input, making the neural network model with recurrent architecture a more useful tool in areas where only weather measurements are available. Finally, we used the neural network model to forecast the O₃ hourly concentrations 1, 3, 6, 12, 24 and 48 h ahead. The performances of the model in predicting O₃ levels are discussed. Emphasis is given to the possibility of using the neural network model in operational ways in areas where only meteorological data are available, in order to predict O₃ also in sites where it has not been measured yet. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  20. Short-term wind speed forecasting by an adaptive network-based fuzzy inference system (ANFIS: an attempt towards an ensemble forecasting method

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Moslem Yousefi

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Accurate Wind speed forecasting has a vital role in efficient utilization of wind farms. Wind forecasting could be performed for long or short time horizons. Given the volatile nature of wind and its dependent on many geographical parameters, it is difficult for traditional methods to provide a reliable forecast of wind speed time series. In this study, an attempt is made to establish an efficient adaptive network-based fuzzy interference (ANFIS for short-term wind speed forecasting. Using the available data sets in the literature, the ANFIS network is constructed, tested and the results are compared with that of a regular neural network, which has been forecasted the same set of dataset in previous studies. To avoid trial-and-error process for selection of the ANFIS input data, the results of autocorrelation factor (ACF and partial auto correlation factor (PACF on the historical wind speed data are employed. The available data set is divided into two parts. 50% for training and 50% for testing and validation. The testing part of data set will be merely used for assessing the performance of the neural network which guarantees that only unseen data is used to evaluate the forecasting performance of the network. On the other hand, validation data could be used for parameter-setting of the network if required. The results indicate that ANFIS could not outperform ANN in short-term wind speed forecasting though its results are competitive. The two methods are hybridized, though simply by weightage, and the hybrid methods shows slight improvement comparing to both ANN and ANFIS results. Therefore, the goal of future studies could be implementing ANFIS and ANNs in a more comprehensive ensemble method which could be ultimately more robust and accurate

  1. International Conference on Artificial Neural Networks (ICANN)

    CERN Document Server

    Mladenov, Valeri; Kasabov, Nikola; Artificial Neural Networks : Methods and Applications in Bio-/Neuroinformatics

    2015-01-01

    The book reports on the latest theories on artificial neural networks, with a special emphasis on bio-neuroinformatics methods. It includes twenty-three papers selected from among the best contributions on bio-neuroinformatics-related issues, which were presented at the International Conference on Artificial Neural Networks, held in Sofia, Bulgaria, on September 10-13, 2013 (ICANN 2013). The book covers a broad range of topics concerning the theory and applications of artificial neural networks, including recurrent neural networks, super-Turing computation and reservoir computing, double-layer vector perceptrons, nonnegative matrix factorization, bio-inspired models of cell communities, Gestalt laws, embodied theory of language understanding, saccadic gaze shifts and memory formation, and new training algorithms for Deep Boltzmann Machines, as well as dynamic neural networks and kernel machines. It also reports on new approaches to reinforcement learning, optimal control of discrete time-delay systems, new al...

  2. IMPLEMENTASI BACKPROPAGATION NEURAL NETWORK DALAM PRAKIRAAN CUACA DI DAERAH BALI SELATAN

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    I MADE DWI UDAYANA PUTRA

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available Weather information has an important role in human life in various fields, such as agriculture, marine, and aviation. The accurate weather forecasts are needed in order to improve the performance of various fields. In this study, use artificial neural network method with backpropagation learning algorithm to create a model of weather forecasting in the area of ??South Bali. The aim of this study is to determine the effect of the number of neurons in the hidden layer and to determine the level of accuracy of the method of artificial neural network with backpropagation learning algorithm in weather forecast models. Weather forecast models in this study use input of the factors that influence the weather, namely air temperature, dew point, wind speed, visibility, and barometric pressure.The results of testing the network with a different number of neurons in the hidden layer of artificial neural network method with backpropagation learning algorithms show that the increase in the number of neurons in the hidden layer is not directly proportional to the value of the accuracy of the weather forecasts, the increase in the number of neurons in the hidden layer does not necessarily increase or decrease value accuracy of weather forecasts we obtain the best accuracy rate of 51.6129% on a network model with three neurons in the hidden layer.

  3. Modeling of methane emissions using artificial neural network approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stamenković Lidija J.

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this study was to develop a model for forecasting CH4 emissions at the national level, using Artificial Neural Networks (ANN with broadly available sustainability, economical and industrial indicators as their inputs. ANN modeling was performed using two different types of architecture; a Backpropagation Neural Network (BPNN and a General Regression Neural Network (GRNN. A conventional multiple linear regression (MLR model was also developed in order to compare model performance and assess which model provides the best results. ANN and MLR models were developed and tested using the same annual data for 20 European countries. The ANN model demonstrated very good performance, significantly better than the MLR model. It was shown that a forecast of CH4 emissions at the national level using the ANN model can be made successfully and accurately for a future period of up to two years, thereby opening the possibility to apply such a modeling technique which can be used to support the implementation of sustainable development strategies and environmental management policies. [Projekat Ministarstva nauke Republike Srbije, br. 172007

  4. Neural Based Orthogonal Data Fitting The EXIN Neural Networks

    CERN Document Server

    Cirrincione, Giansalvo

    2008-01-01

    Written by three leaders in the field of neural based algorithms, Neural Based Orthogonal Data Fitting proposes several neural networks, all endowed with a complete theory which not only explains their behavior, but also compares them with the existing neural and traditional algorithms. The algorithms are studied from different points of view, including: as a differential geometry problem, as a dynamic problem, as a stochastic problem, and as a numerical problem. All algorithms have also been analyzed on real time problems (large dimensional data matrices) and have shown accurate solutions. Wh

  5. Reliability Modeling of Microelectromechanical Systems Using Neural Networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perera. J. Sebastian

    2000-01-01

    Microelectromechanical systems (MEMS) are a broad and rapidly expanding field that is currently receiving a great deal of attention because of the potential to significantly improve the ability to sense, analyze, and control a variety of processes, such as heating and ventilation systems, automobiles, medicine, aeronautical flight, military surveillance, weather forecasting, and space exploration. MEMS are very small and are a blend of electrical and mechanical components, with electrical and mechanical systems on one chip. This research establishes reliability estimation and prediction for MEMS devices at the conceptual design phase using neural networks. At the conceptual design phase, before devices are built and tested, traditional methods of quantifying reliability are inadequate because the device is not in existence and cannot be tested to establish the reliability distributions. A novel approach using neural networks is created to predict the overall reliability of a MEMS device based on its components and each component's attributes. The methodology begins with collecting attribute data (fabrication process, physical specifications, operating environment, property characteristics, packaging, etc.) and reliability data for many types of microengines. The data are partitioned into training data (the majority) and validation data (the remainder). A neural network is applied to the training data (both attribute and reliability); the attributes become the system inputs and reliability data (cycles to failure), the system output. After the neural network is trained with sufficient data. the validation data are used to verify the neural networks provided accurate reliability estimates. Now, the reliability of a new proposed MEMS device can be estimated by using the appropriate trained neural networks developed in this work.

  6. Clustering: a neural network approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Du, K-L

    2010-01-01

    Clustering is a fundamental data analysis method. It is widely used for pattern recognition, feature extraction, vector quantization (VQ), image segmentation, function approximation, and data mining. As an unsupervised classification technique, clustering identifies some inherent structures present in a set of objects based on a similarity measure. Clustering methods can be based on statistical model identification (McLachlan & Basford, 1988) or competitive learning. In this paper, we give a comprehensive overview of competitive learning based clustering methods. Importance is attached to a number of competitive learning based clustering neural networks such as the self-organizing map (SOM), the learning vector quantization (LVQ), the neural gas, and the ART model, and clustering algorithms such as the C-means, mountain/subtractive clustering, and fuzzy C-means (FCM) algorithms. Associated topics such as the under-utilization problem, fuzzy clustering, robust clustering, clustering based on non-Euclidean distance measures, supervised clustering, hierarchical clustering as well as cluster validity are also described. Two examples are given to demonstrate the use of the clustering methods.

  7. Complex-valued Neural Networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hirose, Akira

    This paper reviews the features and applications of complex-valued neural networks (CVNNs). First we list the present application fields, and describe the advantages of the CVNNs in two application examples, namely, an adaptive plastic-landmine visualization system and an optical frequency-domain-multiplexed learning logic circuit. Then we briefly discuss the features of complex number itself to find that the phase rotation is the most significant concept, which is very useful in processing the information related to wave phenomena such as lightwave and electromagnetic wave. The CVNNs will also be an indispensable framework of the future microelectronic information-processing hardware where the quantum electron wave plays the principal role.

  8. Collision avoidance using neural networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sugathan, Shilpa; Sowmya Shree, B. V.; Warrier, Mithila R.; Vidhyapathi, C. M.

    2017-11-01

    Now a days, accidents on roads are caused due to the negligence of drivers and pedestrians or due to unexpected obstacles that come into the vehicle’s path. In this paper, a model (robot) is developed to assist drivers for a smooth travel without accidents. It reacts to the real time obstacles on the four critical sides of the vehicle and takes necessary action. The sensor used for detecting the obstacle was an IR proximity sensor. A single layer perceptron neural network is used to train and test all possible combinations of sensors result by using Matlab (offline). A microcontroller (ARM Cortex-M3 LPC1768) is used to control the vehicle through the output data which is received from Matlab via serial communication. Hence, the vehicle becomes capable of reacting to any combination of real time obstacles.

  9. Tampa Electric Neural Network Sootblowing

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mark A. Rhode

    2003-12-31

    Boiler combustion dynamics change continuously due to several factors including coal quality, boiler loading, ambient conditions, changes in slag/soot deposits and the condition of plant equipment. NO{sub x} formation, Particulate Matter (PM) emissions, and boiler thermal performance are directly affected by the sootblowing practices on a unit. As part of its Power Plant Improvement Initiative program, the US DOE is providing cofunding (DE-FC26-02NT41425) and NETL is the managing agency for this project at Tampa Electric's Big Bend Station. This program serves to co-fund projects that have the potential to increase thermal efficiency and reduce emissions from coal-fired utility boilers. A review of the Big Bend units helped identify intelligent sootblowing as a suitable application to achieve the desired objectives. The existing sootblower control philosophy uses sequential schemes, whose frequency is either dictated by the control room operator or is timed based. The intent of this project is to implement a neural network based intelligent soot-blowing system, in conjunction with state-of-the-art controls and instrumentation, to optimize the operation of a utility boiler and systematically control boiler fouling. Utilizing unique, on-line, adaptive technology, operation of the sootblowers can be dynamically controlled based on real-time events and conditions within the boiler. This could be an extremely cost-effective technology, which has the ability to be readily and easily adapted to virtually any pulverized coal fired boiler. Through unique on-line adaptive technology, Neural Network-based systems optimize the boiler operation by accommodating equipment performance changes due to wear and maintenance activities, adjusting to fluctuations in fuel quality, and improving operating flexibility. The system dynamically adjusts combustion setpoints and bias settings in closed-loop supervisory control to simultaneously reduce NO{sub x} emissions and improve heat

  10. Tampa Electric Neural Network Sootblowing

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mark A. Rhode

    2004-09-30

    Boiler combustion dynamics change continuously due to several factors including coal quality, boiler loading, ambient conditions, changes in slag/soot deposits and the condition of plant equipment. NOx formation, Particulate Matter (PM) emissions, and boiler thermal performance are directly affected by the sootblowing practices on a unit. As part of its Power Plant Improvement Initiative program, the US DOE is providing cofunding (DE-FC26-02NT41425) and NETL is the managing agency for this project at Tampa Electric's Big Bend Station. This program serves to co-fund projects that have the potential to increase thermal efficiency and reduce emissions from coal-fired utility boilers. A review of the Big Bend units helped identify intelligent sootblowing as a suitable application to achieve the desired objectives. The existing sootblower control philosophy uses sequential schemes, whose frequency is either dictated by the control room operator or is timed based. The intent of this project is to implement a neural network based intelligent sootblowing system, in conjunction with state-of-the-art controls and instrumentation, to optimize the operation of a utility boiler and systematically control boiler fouling. Utilizing unique, on-line, adaptive technology, operation of the sootblowers can be dynamically controlled based on real-time events and conditions within the boiler. This could be an extremely cost-effective technology, which has the ability to be readily and easily adapted to virtually any pulverized coal fired boiler. Through unique on-line adaptive technology, Neural Network-based systems optimize the boiler operation by accommodating equipment performance changes due to wear and maintenance activities, adjusting to fluctuations in fuel quality, and improving operating flexibility. The system dynamically adjusts combustion setpoints and bias settings in closed-loop supervisory control to simultaneously reduce NO{sub x} emissions and improve heat rate

  11. Tampa Electric Neural Network Sootblowing

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mark A. Rhode

    2004-03-31

    Boiler combustion dynamics change continuously due to several factors including coal quality, boiler loading, ambient conditions, changes in slag/soot deposits and the condition of plant equipment. NOx formation, Particulate Matter (PM) emissions, and boiler thermal performance are directly affected by the sootblowing practices on a unit. As part of its Power Plant Improvement Initiative program, the US DOE is providing co-funding (DE-FC26-02NT41425) and NETL is the managing agency for this project at Tampa Electric's Big Bend Station. This program serves to co-fund projects that have the potential to increase thermal efficiency and reduce emissions from coal-fired utility boilers. A review of the Big Bend units helped identify intelligent sootblowing as a suitable application to achieve the desired objectives. The existing sootblower control philosophy uses sequential schemes, whose frequency is either dictated by the control room operator or is timed based. The intent of this project is to implement a neural network based intelligent sootblowing system, in conjunction with state-of-the-art controls and instrumentation, to optimize the operation of a utility boiler and systematically control boiler fouling. Utilizing unique, on-line, adaptive technology, operation of the sootblowers can be dynamically controlled based on real-time events and conditions within the boiler. This could be an extremely cost-effective technology, which has the ability to be readily and easily adapted to virtually any pulverized coal fired boiler. Through unique on-line adaptive technology, Neural Network-based systems optimize the boiler operation by accommodating equipment performance changes due to wear and maintenance activities, adjusting to fluctuations in fuel quality, and improving operating flexibility. The system dynamically adjusts combustion setpoints and bias settings in closed-loop supervisory control to simultaneously reduce NO{sub x} emissions and improve heat rate

  12. Program Aids Simulation Of Neural Networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baffes, Paul T.

    1990-01-01

    Computer program NETS - Tool for Development and Evaluation of Neural Networks - provides simulation of neural-network algorithms plus software environment for development of such algorithms. Enables user to customize patterns of connections between layers of network, and provides features for saving weight values of network, providing for more precise control over learning process. Consists of translating problem into format using input/output pairs, designing network configuration for problem, and finally training network with input/output pairs until acceptable error reached. Written in C.

  13. Learning Processes of Layered Neural Networks

    OpenAIRE

    Fujiki, Sumiyoshi; FUJIKI, Nahomi, M.

    1995-01-01

    A positive reinforcement type learning algorithm is formulated for a stochastic feed-forward neural network, and a learning equation similar to that of the Boltzmann machine algorithm is obtained. By applying a mean field approximation to the same stochastic feed-forward neural network, a deterministic analog feed-forward network is obtained and the back-propagation learning rule is re-derived.

  14. Predicting Physical Time Series Using Dynamic Ridge Polynomial Neural Networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Al-Jumeily, Dhiya; Ghazali, Rozaida; Hussain, Abir

    2014-01-01

    Forecasting naturally occurring phenomena is a common problem in many domains of science, and this has been addressed and investigated by many scientists. The importance of time series prediction stems from the fact that it has wide range of applications, including control systems, engineering processes, environmental systems and economics. From the knowledge of some aspects of the previous behaviour of the system, the aim of the prediction process is to determine or predict its future behaviour. In this paper, we consider a novel application of a higher order polynomial neural network architecture called Dynamic Ridge Polynomial Neural Network that combines the properties of higher order and recurrent neural networks for the prediction of physical time series. In this study, four types of signals have been used, which are; The Lorenz attractor, mean value of the AE index, sunspot number, and heat wave temperature. The simulation results showed good improvements in terms of the signal to noise ratio in comparison to a number of higher order and feedforward neural networks in comparison to the benchmarked techniques. PMID:25157950

  15. Method of Creation of “Core-Gisseismic Attributes” Dependences With Use of Trainable Neural Networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gafurov Denis

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The study describes methodological techniques and results of geophysical well logging and seismic data interpretation by means of trainable neural networks. Objects of research are wells and seismic materials of Talakan field. The article also presents forecast of construction and reservoir properties of Osa horizon. The paper gives an example of creation of geological (lithological -facial model of the field based on developed methodical techniques of complex interpretation of geologicgeophysical data by trainable neural network. The constructed lithological -facial model allows specifying a geological structure of the field. The developed methodical techniques and the trained neural networks may be applied to adjacent sites for research of carbonate horizons.

  16. Proposal for the utilization of neural networks for the forecast of the electric power demand in a distribution system; Propuesta de utilizacion de las redes neuronales para la prediccion de la demanda electrica en un sistema de distribucion

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Prado, Pedro O.; Aguero, Carlos A.; Ferreyra, Ruben; Passoni, Lucia Isabel; Clara, Fernando [Universidad Nacional de Mar del Plata, Buenos Aires (Argentina). Facultad de Ingenieria

    1997-12-31

    In this work, the first advances of the investigation project are presented that is developed in the University. The main objective of this project is the recognition of patterns and the definition of models of prediction of the energy demand through the neural networks. Achieved these technical indicators will be possible to analyze, in more complete form, the evolution of a system of electric of distribution. The neural networks is technical not parametric that have demonstrated their aptitude so much in the recognition of patterns as in the recognition of patterns as in the prediction of parameters, in diverse areas. At the moment its use in the field of the energy planning, is still a beginner topic. (author) 12 refs., 5 figs.;poprado at fi.mdp.edu.ar; lpassoni at fi.mdp.edu.ar

  17. Modular representation of layered neural networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Watanabe, Chihiro; Hiramatsu, Kaoru; Kashino, Kunio

    2018-01-01

    Layered neural networks have greatly improved the performance of various applications including image processing, speech recognition, natural language processing, and bioinformatics. However, it is still difficult to discover or interpret knowledge from the inference provided by a layered neural network, since its internal representation has many nonlinear and complex parameters embedded in hierarchical layers. Therefore, it becomes important to establish a new methodology by which layered neural networks can be understood. In this paper, we propose a new method for extracting a global and simplified structure from a layered neural network. Based on network analysis, the proposed method detects communities or clusters of units with similar connection patterns. We show its effectiveness by applying it to three use cases. (1) Network decomposition: it can decompose a trained neural network into multiple small independent networks thus dividing the problem and reducing the computation time. (2) Training assessment: the appropriateness of a trained result with a given hyperparameter or randomly chosen initial parameters can be evaluated by using a modularity index. And (3) data analysis: in practical data it reveals the community structure in the input, hidden, and output layers, which serves as a clue for discovering knowledge from a trained neural network. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  18. Research of The Deeper Neural Networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiao You Rong

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Neural networks (NNs have powerful computational abilities and could be used in a variety of applications; however, training these networks is still a difficult problem. With different network structures, many neural models have been constructed. In this report, a deeper neural networks (DNNs architecture is proposed. The training algorithm of deeper neural network insides searching the global optimal point in the actual error surface. Before the training algorithm is designed, the error surface of the deeper neural network is analyzed from simple to complicated, and the features of the error surface is obtained. Based on these characters, the initialization method and training algorithm of DNNs is designed. For the initialization, a block-uniform design method is proposed which separates the error surface into some blocks and finds the optimal block using the uniform design method. For the training algorithm, the improved gradient-descent method is proposed which adds a penalty term into the cost function of the old gradient descent method. This algorithm makes the network have a great approximating ability and keeps the network state stable. All of these improve the practicality of the neural network.

  19. Neural network topology design for nonlinear control

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haecker, Jens; Rudolph, Stephan

    2001-03-01

    Neural networks, especially in nonlinear system identification and control applications, are typically considered to be black-boxes which are difficult to analyze and understand mathematically. Due to this reason, an in- depth mathematical analysis offering insight into the different neural network transformation layers based on a theoretical transformation scheme is desired, but up to now neither available nor known. In previous works it has been shown how proven engineering methods such as dimensional analysis and the Laplace transform may be used to construct a neural controller topology for time-invariant systems. Using the knowledge of neural correspondences of these two classical methods, the internal nodes of the network could also be successfully interpreted after training. As further extension to these works, the paper describes the latest of a theoretical interpretation framework describing the neural network transformation sequences in nonlinear system identification and control. This can be achieved By incorporation of the method of exact input-output linearization in the above mentioned two transform sequences of dimensional analysis and the Laplace transformation. Based on these three theoretical considerations neural network topologies may be designed in special situations by pure translation in the sense of a structural compilation of the known classical solutions into their correspondent neural topology. Based on known exemplary results, the paper synthesizes the proposed approach into the visionary goals of a structural compiler for neural networks. This structural compiler for neural networks is intended to automatically convert classical control formulations into their equivalent neural network structure based on the principles of equivalence between formula and operator, and operator and structure which are discussed in detail in this work.

  20. Estimation of Conditional Quantile using Neural Networks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kulczycki, P.; Schiøler, Henrik

    1999-01-01

    The problem of estimating conditional quantiles using neural networks is investigated here. A basic structure is developed using the methodology of kernel estimation, and a theory guaranteeing con-sistency on a mild set of assumptions is provided. The constructed structure constitutes a basis...... for the design of a variety of different neural networks, some of which are considered in detail. The task of estimating conditional quantiles is related to Bayes point estimation whereby a broad range of applications within engineering, economics and management can be suggested. Numerical results illustrating...... the capabilities of the elaborated neural network are also given....

  1. Vectorized algorithms for spiking neural network simulation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brette, Romain; Goodman, Dan F M

    2011-06-01

    High-level languages (Matlab, Python) are popular in neuroscience because they are flexible and accelerate development. However, for simulating spiking neural networks, the cost of interpretation is a bottleneck. We describe a set of algorithms to simulate large spiking neural networks efficiently with high-level languages using vector-based operations. These algorithms constitute the core of Brian, a spiking neural network simulator written in the Python language. Vectorized simulation makes it possible to combine the flexibility of high-level languages with the computational efficiency usually associated with compiled languages.

  2. Convolutional Neural Network for Image Recognition

    CERN Document Server

    Seifnashri, Sahand

    2015-01-01

    The aim of this project is to use machine learning techniques especially Convolutional Neural Networks for image processing. These techniques can be used for Quark-Gluon discrimination using calorimeters data, but unfortunately I didn’t manage to get the calorimeters data and I just used the Jet data fromminiaodsim(ak4 chs). The Jet data was not good enough for Convolutional Neural Network which is designed for ’image’ recognition. This report is made of twomain part, part one is mainly about implementing Convolutional Neural Network on unphysical data such as MNIST digits and CIFAR-10 dataset and part 2 is about the Jet data.

  3. Neural Network and Letter Recognition.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Hue Yeon

    Neural net architectures and learning algorithms that recognize hand written 36 alphanumeric characters are studied. The thin line input patterns written in 32 x 32 binary array are used. The system is comprised of two major components, viz. a preprocessing unit and a Recognition unit. The preprocessing unit in turn consists of three layers of neurons; the U-layer, the V-layer, and the C -layer. The functions of the U-layer is to extract local features by template matching. The correlation between the detected local features are considered. Through correlating neurons in a plane with their neighboring neurons, the V-layer would thicken the on-cells or lines that are groups of on-cells of the previous layer. These two correlations would yield some deformation tolerance and some of the rotational tolerance of the system. The C-layer then compresses data through the 'Gabor' transform. Pattern dependent choice of center and wavelengths of 'Gabor' filters is the cause of shift and scale tolerance of the system. Three different learning schemes had been investigated in the recognition unit, namely; the error back propagation learning with hidden units, a simple perceptron learning, and a competitive learning. Their performances were analyzed and compared. Since sometimes the network fails to distinguish between two letters that are inherently similar, additional ambiguity resolving neural nets are introduced on top of the above main neural net. The two dimensional Fourier transform is used as the preprocessing and the perceptron is used as the recognition unit of the ambiguity resolver. One hundred different person's handwriting sets are collected. Some of these are used as the training sets and the remainders are used as the test sets. The correct recognition rate of the system increases with the number of training sets and eventually saturates at a certain value. Similar recognition rates are obtained for the above three different learning algorithms. The minimum error

  4. Nonequilibrium landscape theory of neural networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yan, Han; Zhao, Lei; Hu, Liang; Wang, Xidi; Wang, Erkang; Wang, Jin

    2013-01-01

    The brain map project aims to map out the neuron connections of the human brain. Even with all of the wirings mapped out, the global and physical understandings of the function and behavior are still challenging. Hopfield quantified the learning and memory process of symmetrically connected neural networks globally through equilibrium energy. The energy basins of attractions represent memories, and the memory retrieval dynamics is determined by the energy gradient. However, the realistic neural networks are asymmetrically connected, and oscillations cannot emerge from symmetric neural networks. Here, we developed a nonequilibrium landscape–flux theory for realistic asymmetrically connected neural networks. We uncovered the underlying potential landscape and the associated Lyapunov function for quantifying the global stability and function. We found the dynamics and oscillations in human brains responsible for cognitive processes and physiological rhythm regulations are determined not only by the landscape gradient but also by the flux. We found that the flux is closely related to the degrees of the asymmetric connections in neural networks and is the origin of the neural oscillations. The neural oscillation landscape shows a closed-ring attractor topology. The landscape gradient attracts the network down to the ring. The flux is responsible for coherent oscillations on the ring. We suggest the flux may provide the driving force for associations among memories. We applied our theory to rapid-eye movement sleep cycle. We identified the key regulation factors for function through global sensitivity analysis of landscape topography against wirings, which are in good agreements with experiments. PMID:24145451

  5. Neural Network for Estimating Conditional Distribution

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schiøler, Henrik; Kulczycki, P.

    Neural networks for estimating conditional distributions and their associated quantiles are investigated in this paper. A basic network structure is developed on the basis of kernel estimation theory, and consistency is proved from a mild set of assumptions. A number of applications within...... statistcs, decision theory and signal processing are suggested, and a numerical example illustrating the capabilities of the elaborated network is given...

  6. IMPLEMENTASI BACKPROPAGATION NEURAL NETWORK DALAM PRAKIRAAN CUACA DI DAERAH BALI SELATAN

    OpenAIRE

    I MADE DWI UDAYANA PUTRA; G.K. GANDHIADI; LUH PUTU IDA HARINI

    2016-01-01

    Weather information has an important role in human life in various fields, such as agriculture, marine, and aviation. The accurate weather forecasts are needed in order to improve the performance of various fields. In this study, use artificial neural network method with backpropagation learning algorithm to create a model of weather forecasting in the area of ??South Bali. The aim of this study is to determine the effect of the number of neurons in the hidden layer and to determine the level...

  7. An artificial walk down Wall Street : can intraday stock returns be predicted using artificial neural networks?

    OpenAIRE

    Bøvre, Jens Olve; Viervoll, Peder Kristian

    2009-01-01

    Financial markets are complex evolved dynamic systems. Due to its irregularity, financial time series forecasting is regarded as a rather challenging task. In recent years, artificial neural network applications in finance, for such tasks as pattern recognition, classification, and time series forecasting have dramatically increased. The objective of this paper is to present this powerful framework and attempt to use it to predict the stock return series of four publicly listed...

  8. Person Movement Prediction Using Neural Networks

    OpenAIRE

    Vintan, Lucian; Gellert, Arpad; Petzold, Jan; Ungerer, Theo

    2006-01-01

    Ubiquitous systems use context information to adapt appliance behavior to human needs. Even more convenience is reached if the appliance foresees the user's desires and acts proactively. This paper proposes neural prediction techniques to anticipate a person's next movement. We focus on neural predictors (multi-layer perceptron with back-propagation learning) with and without pre-training. The optimal configuration of the neural network is determined by evaluating movement sequences of real p...

  9. Neural network wavelet technology: A frontier of automation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Szu, Harold

    1994-01-01

    Neural networks are an outgrowth of interdisciplinary studies concerning the brain. These studies are guiding the field of Artificial Intelligence towards the, so-called, 6th Generation Computer. Enormous amounts of resources have been poured into R/D. Wavelet Transforms (WT) have replaced Fourier Transforms (FT) in Wideband Transient (WT) cases since the discovery of WT in 1985. The list of successful applications includes the following: earthquake prediction; radar identification; speech recognition; stock market forecasting; FBI finger print image compression; and telecommunication ISDN-data compression.

  10. Deep Learning Neural Networks and Bayesian Neural Networks in Data Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chernoded, Andrey; Dudko, Lev; Myagkov, Igor; Volkov, Petr

    2017-10-01

    Most of the modern analyses in high energy physics use signal-versus-background classification techniques of machine learning methods and neural networks in particular. Deep learning neural network is the most promising modern technique to separate signal and background and now days can be widely and successfully implemented as a part of physical analysis. In this article we compare Deep learning and Bayesian neural networks application as a classifiers in an instance of top quark analysis.

  11. Deep Learning Neural Networks and Bayesian Neural Networks in Data Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chernoded Andrey

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Most of the modern analyses in high energy physics use signal-versus-background classification techniques of machine learning methods and neural networks in particular. Deep learning neural network is the most promising modern technique to separate signal and background and now days can be widely and successfully implemented as a part of physical analysis. In this article we compare Deep learning and Bayesian neural networks application as a classifiers in an instance of top quark analysis.

  12. [Medical use of artificial neural networks].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Molnár, B; Papik, K; Schaefer, R; Dombóvári, Z; Fehér, J; Tulassay, Z

    1998-01-04

    The main aim of the research in medical diagnostics is to develop more exact, cost-effective and handsome systems, procedures and methods for supporting the clinicians. In their paper the authors introduce a new method that recently came into the focus referred to as artificial neural networks. Based on the literature of the past 5-6 years they give a brief review--highlighting the most important ones--showing the idea behind neural networks, what they are used for in the medical field. The definition, structure and operation of neural networks are discussed. In the application part they collect examples in order to give an insight in the neural network application research. It is emphasised that in the near future basically new diagnostic equipment can be developed based on this new technology in the field of ECG, EEG and macroscopic and microscopic image analysis systems.

  13. Application of neural networks in coastal engineering

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Mandal, S.

    methods. That is why it is becoming popular in various fields including coastal engineering. Waves and tides will play important roles in coastal erosion or accretion. This paper briefly describes the back-propagation neural networks and its application...

  14. Additive Feed Forward Control with Neural Networks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sørensen, O.

    1999-01-01

    This paper demonstrates a method to control a non-linear, multivariable, noisy process using trained neural networks. The basis for the method is a trained neural network controller acting as the inverse process model. A training method for obtaining such an inverse process model is applied....... A suitable 'shaped' (low-pass filtered) reference is used to overcome problems with excessive control action when using a controller acting as the inverse process model. The control concept is Additive Feed Forward Control, where the trained neural network controller, acting as the inverse process model......, is placed in a supplementary pure feed-forward path to an existing feedback controller. This concept benefits from the fact, that an existing, traditional designed, feedback controller can be retained without any modifications, and after training the connection of the neural network feed-forward controller...

  15. Blood glucose prediction using neural network

    Science.gov (United States)

    Soh, Chit Siang; Zhang, Xiqin; Chen, Jianhong; Raveendran, P.; Soh, Phey Hong; Yeo, Joon Hock

    2008-02-01

    We used neural network for blood glucose level determination in this study. The data set used in this study was collected using a non-invasive blood glucose monitoring system with six laser diodes, each laser diode operating at distinct near infrared wavelength between 1500nm and 1800nm. The neural network is specifically used to determine blood glucose level of one individual who participated in an oral glucose tolerance test (OGTT) session. Partial least squares regression is also used for blood glucose level determination for the purpose of comparison with the neural network model. The neural network model performs better in the prediction of blood glucose level as compared with the partial least squares model.

  16. PREDIKSI FOREX MENGGUNAKAN MODEL NEURAL NETWORK

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. Hadapiningradja Kusumodestoni

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available ABSTRAK Prediksi adalah salah satu teknik yang paling penting dalam menjalankan bisnis forex. Keputusan dalam memprediksi adalah sangatlah penting, karena dengan prediksi dapat membantu mengetahui nilai forex di waktu tertentu kedepan sehingga dapat mengurangi resiko kerugian. Tujuan dari penelitian ini dimaksudkan memprediksi bisnis fores menggunakan model neural network dengan data time series per 1 menit untuk mengetahui nilai akurasi prediksi sehingga dapat mengurangi resiko dalam menjalankan bisnis forex. Metode penelitian pada penelitian ini meliputi metode pengumpulan data kemudian dilanjutkan ke metode training, learning, testing menggunakan neural network. Setelah di evaluasi hasil penelitian ini menunjukan bahwa penerapan algoritma Neural Network mampu untuk memprediksi forex dengan tingkat akurasi prediksi 0.431 +/- 0.096 sehingga dengan prediksi ini dapat membantu mengurangi resiko dalam menjalankan bisnis forex. Kata kunci: prediksi, forex, neural network.

  17. Using Neural Networks in Diagnosing Breast Cancer

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Fogel, David

    1997-01-01

    .... In the current study, evolutionary programming is used to train neural networks and linear discriminant models to detect breast cancer in suspicious and microcalcifications using radiographic features and patient age...

  18. Neural Networks in Mobile Robot Motion

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Danica Janglová

    2004-03-01

    Full Text Available This paper deals with a path planning and intelligent control of an autonomous robot which should move safely in partially structured environment. This environment may involve any number of obstacles of arbitrary shape and size; some of them are allowed to move. We describe our approach to solving the motion-planning problem in mobile robot control using neural networks-based technique. Our method of the construction of a collision-free path for moving robot among obstacles is based on two neural networks. The first neural network is used to determine the “free” space using ultrasound range finder data. The second neural network “finds” a safe direction for the next robot section of the path in the workspace while avoiding the nearest obstacles. Simulation examples of generated path with proposed techniques will be presented.

  19. Isolated Speech Recognition Using Artificial Neural Networks

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Polur, Prasad

    2001-01-01

    .... A small size vocabulary containing the words YES and NO is chosen. Spectral features using cepstral analysis are extracted per frame and imported to a feedforward neural network which uses a backpropagation with momentum training algorithm...

  20. Control of autonomous robot using neural networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barton, Adam; Volna, Eva

    2017-07-01

    The aim of the article is to design a method of control of an autonomous robot using artificial neural networks. The introductory part describes control issues from the perspective of autonomous robot navigation and the current mobile robots controlled by neural networks. The core of the article is the design of the controlling neural network, and generation and filtration of the training set using ART1 (Adaptive Resonance Theory). The outcome of the practical part is an assembled Lego Mindstorms EV3 robot solving the problem of avoiding obstacles in space. To verify models of an autonomous robot behavior, a set of experiments was created as well as evaluation criteria. The speed of each motor was adjusted by the controlling neural network with respect to the situation in which the robot was found.

  1. Neural Networks in Mobile Robot Motion

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Danica Janglova

    2008-11-01

    Full Text Available This paper deals with a path planning and intelligent control of an autonomous robot which should move safely in partially structured environment. This environment may involve any number of obstacles of arbitrary shape and size; some of them are allowed to move. We describe our approach to solving the motion-planning problem in mobile robot control using neural networks-based technique. Our method of the construction of a collision-free path for moving robot among obstacles is based on two neural networks. The first neural network is used to determine the "free" space using ultrasound range finder data. The second neural network "finds" a safe direction for the next robot section of the path in the workspace while avoiding the nearest obstacles. Simulation examples of generated path with proposed techniques will be presented.

  2. Artificial neural networks a practical course

    CERN Document Server

    da Silva, Ivan Nunes; Andrade Flauzino, Rogerio; Liboni, Luisa Helena Bartocci; dos Reis Alves, Silas Franco

    2017-01-01

    This book provides comprehensive coverage of neural networks, their evolution, their structure, the problems they can solve, and their applications. The first half of the book looks at theoretical investigations on artificial neural networks and addresses the key architectures that are capable of implementation in various application scenarios. The second half is designed specifically for the production of solutions using artificial neural networks to solve practical problems arising from different areas of knowledge. It also describes the various implementation details that were taken into account to achieve the reported results. These aspects contribute to the maturation and improvement of experimental techniques to specify the neural network architecture that is most appropriate for a particular application scope. The book is appropriate for students in graduate and upper undergraduate courses in addition to researchers and professionals.

  3. Constructive autoassociative neural network for facial recognition.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bruno J T Fernandes

    Full Text Available Autoassociative artificial neural networks have been used in many different computer vision applications. However, it is difficult to define the most suitable neural network architecture because this definition is based on previous knowledge and depends on the problem domain. To address this problem, we propose a constructive autoassociative neural network called CANet (Constructive Autoassociative Neural Network. CANet integrates the concepts of receptive fields and autoassociative memory in a dynamic architecture that changes the configuration of the receptive fields by adding new neurons in the hidden layer, while a pruning algorithm removes neurons from the output layer. Neurons in the CANet output layer present lateral inhibitory connections that improve the recognition rate. Experiments in face recognition and facial expression recognition show that the CANet outperforms other methods presented in the literature.

  4. Genetic Algorithm Optimized Neural Networks Ensemble as ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    NJD

    Genetic Algorithm Optimized Neural Networks Ensemble as. Calibration Model for Simultaneous Spectrophotometric. Estimation of Atenolol and Losartan Potassium in Tablets. Dondeti Satyanarayana*, Kamarajan Kannan and Rajappan Manavalan. Department of Pharmacy, Annamalai University, Annamalainagar, Tamil ...

  5. Applications of Pulse-Coupled Neural Networks

    CERN Document Server

    Ma, Yide; Wang, Zhaobin

    2011-01-01

    "Applications of Pulse-Coupled Neural Networks" explores the fields of image processing, including image filtering, image segmentation, image fusion, image coding, image retrieval, and biometric recognition, and the role of pulse-coupled neural networks in these fields. This book is intended for researchers and graduate students in artificial intelligence, pattern recognition, electronic engineering, and computer science. Prof. Yide Ma conducts research on intelligent information processing, biomedical image processing, and embedded system development at the School of Information Sci

  6. Neural networks as models of psychopathology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aakerlund, L; Hemmingsen, R

    1998-04-01

    Neural network modeling is situated between neurobiology, cognitive science, and neuropsychology. The structural and functional resemblance with biological computation has made artificial neural networks (ANN) useful for exploring the relationship between neurobiology and computational performance, i.e., cognition and behavior. This review provides an introduction to the theory of ANN and how they have linked theories from neurobiology and psychopathology in schizophrenia, affective disorders, and dementia.

  7. A neural network simulation package in CLIPS

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bhatnagar, Himanshu; Krolak, Patrick D.; Mcgee, Brenda J.; Coleman, John

    1990-01-01

    The intrinsic similarity between the firing of a rule and the firing of a neuron has been captured in this research to provide a neural network development system within an existing production system (CLIPS). A very important by-product of this research has been the emergence of an integrated technique of using rule based systems in conjunction with the neural networks to solve complex problems. The systems provides a tool kit for an integrated use of the two techniques and is also extendible to accommodate other AI techniques like the semantic networks, connectionist networks, and even the petri nets. This integrated technique can be very useful in solving complex AI problems.

  8. Logarithmic learning for generalized classifier neural network.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ozyildirim, Buse Melis; Avci, Mutlu

    2014-12-01

    Generalized classifier neural network is introduced as an efficient classifier among the others. Unless the initial smoothing parameter value is close to the optimal one, generalized classifier neural network suffers from convergence problem and requires quite a long time to converge. In this work, to overcome this problem, a logarithmic learning approach is proposed. The proposed method uses logarithmic cost function instead of squared error. Minimization of this cost function reduces the number of iterations used for reaching the minima. The proposed method is tested on 15 different data sets and performance of logarithmic learning generalized classifier neural network is compared with that of standard one. Thanks to operation range of radial basis function included by generalized classifier neural network, proposed logarithmic approach and its derivative has continuous values. This makes it possible to adopt the advantage of logarithmic fast convergence by the proposed learning method. Due to fast convergence ability of logarithmic cost function, training time is maximally decreased to 99.2%. In addition to decrease in training time, classification performance may also be improved till 60%. According to the test results, while the proposed method provides a solution for time requirement problem of generalized classifier neural network, it may also improve the classification accuracy. The proposed method can be considered as an efficient way for reducing the time requirement problem of generalized classifier neural network. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  9. Diabetic retinopathy screening using deep neural network.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ramachandran, Nishanthan; Hong, Sheng Chiong; Sime, Mary J; Wilson, Graham A

    2017-09-07

    There is a burgeoning interest in the use of deep neural network in diabetic retinal screening. To determine whether a deep neural network could satisfactorily detect diabetic retinopathy that requires referral to an ophthalmologist from a local diabetic retinal screening programme and an international database. Retrospective audit. Diabetic retinal photos from Otago database photographed during October 2016 (485 photos), and 1200 photos from Messidor international database. Receiver operating characteristic curve to illustrate the ability of a deep neural network to identify referable diabetic retinopathy (moderate or worse diabetic retinopathy or exudates within one disc diameter of the fovea). Area under the receiver operating characteristic curve, sensitivity and specificity. For detecting referable diabetic retinopathy, the deep neural network had an area under receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.901 (95% confidence interval 0.807-0.995), with 84.6% sensitivity and 79.7% specificity for Otago and 0.980 (95% confidence interval 0.973-0.986), with 96.0% sensitivity and 90.0% specificity for Messidor. This study has shown that a deep neural network can detect referable diabetic retinopathy with sensitivities and specificities close to or better than 80% from both an international and a domestic (New Zealand) database. We believe that deep neural networks can be integrated into community screening once they can successfully detect both diabetic retinopathy and diabetic macular oedema. © 2017 Royal Australian and New Zealand College of Ophthalmologists.

  10. Symbolic processing in neural networks

    OpenAIRE

    Neto, João Pedro; Hava T Siegelmann; Costa,J.Félix

    2003-01-01

    In this paper we show that programming languages can be translated into recurrent (analog, rational weighted) neural nets. Implementation of programming languages in neural nets turns to be not only theoretical exciting, but has also some practical implications in the recent efforts to merge symbolic and sub symbolic computation. To be of some use, it should be carried in a context of bounded resources. Herein, we show how to use resource bounds to speed up computations over neural nets, thro...

  11. Hindcasting cyclonic waves using neural networks

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Mandal, S.; Rao, S.; Chakravarty, N.V.

    the backpropagation networks with updated algorithms are used in this paper. A brief description about the working of a back propagation neural network and three updated algorithms is given below. Backpropagation learning: Backpropagation is the most widely used... algorithm for supervised learning with multi layer feed forward networks. The idea of the backpropagation learning algorithm is the repeated application of the chain rule to compute the influence of each weight in the network with respect to an arbitrary...

  12. Artificial astrocytes improve neural network performance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Porto-Pazos, Ana B; Veiguela, Noha; Mesejo, Pablo; Navarrete, Marta; Alvarellos, Alberto; Ibáñez, Oscar; Pazos, Alejandro; Araque, Alfonso

    2011-04-19

    Compelling evidence indicates the existence of bidirectional communication between astrocytes and neurons. Astrocytes, a type of glial cells classically considered to be passive supportive cells, have been recently demonstrated to be actively involved in the processing and regulation of synaptic information, suggesting that brain function arises from the activity of neuron-glia networks. However, the actual impact of astrocytes in neural network function is largely unknown and its application in artificial intelligence remains untested. We have investigated the consequences of including artificial astrocytes, which present the biologically defined properties involved in astrocyte-neuron communication, on artificial neural network performance. Using connectionist systems and evolutionary algorithms, we have compared the performance of artificial neural networks (NN) and artificial neuron-glia networks (NGN) to solve classification problems. We show that the degree of success of NGN is superior to NN. Analysis of performances of NN with different number of neurons or different architectures indicate that the effects of NGN cannot be accounted for an increased number of network elements, but rather they are specifically due to astrocytes. Furthermore, the relative efficacy of NGN vs. NN increases as the complexity of the network increases. These results indicate that artificial astrocytes improve neural network performance, and established the concept of Artificial Neuron-Glia Networks, which represents a novel concept in Artificial Intelligence with implications in computational science as well as in the understanding of brain function.

  13. Prediction of geomagnetic indexes with the help of artificial neural networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Myagkova, Irina; Shiroky, Vladimir; Dolenko, Sergey

    2017-10-01

    The results of prediction of geomagnetic indexes characterizing the state of the Earth's magnetosphere obtained with the help of artificial neural networks (ANN) for various prediction horizons are presented. The forecasts are based on multivariate time series including the values of the geomagnetic indices themselves, as well as data about the parameters of solar wind and interplanetary magnetic field, during several latest hours.

  14. Application of recurrent neural networks for drought projections in California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Le, J. A.; El-Askary, H. M.; Allali, M.; Struppa, D. C.

    2017-05-01

    We use recurrent neural networks (RNNs) to investigate the complex interactions between the long-term trend in dryness and a projected, short but intense, period of wetness due to the 2015-2016 El Niño. Although it was forecasted that this El Niño season would bring significant rainfall to the region, our long-term projections of the Palmer Z Index (PZI) showed a continuing drought trend, contrasting with the 1998-1999 El Niño event. RNN training considered PZI data during 1896-2006 that was validated against the 2006-2015 period to evaluate the potential of extreme precipitation forecast. We achieved a statistically significant correlation of 0.610 between forecasted and observed PZI on the validation set for a lead time of 1 month. This gives strong confidence to the forecasted precipitation indicator. The 2015-2016 El Niño season proved to be relatively weak as compared with the 1997-1998, with a peak PZI anomaly of 0.242 standard deviations below historical averages, continuing drought conditions.

  15. Parametric Identification of Aircraft Loads: An Artificial Neural Network Approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-03-30

    Undergraduate Student Paper Postgraduate Student Paper Parametric Identification of Aircraft Loads: An Artificial Neural Network Approach...monitoring, flight parameter, nonlinear modeling, Artificial Neural Network , typical loadcase. Introduction Aircraft load monitoring is an... Neural Networks (ANN), i.e. the BP network and Kohonen Clustering Network , are applied and revised by Kalman Filter and Genetic Algorithm to build

  16. Application of clustering analysis in the prediction of photovoltaic power generation based on neural network

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cheng, K.; Guo, L. M.; Wang, Y. K.; Zafar, M. T.

    2017-11-01

    In order to select effective samples in the large number of data of PV power generation years and improve the accuracy of PV power generation forecasting model, this paper studies the application of clustering analysis in this field and establishes forecasting model based on neural network. Based on three different types of weather on sunny, cloudy and rainy days, this research screens samples of historical data by the clustering analysis method. After screening, it establishes BP neural network prediction models using screened data as training data. Then, compare the six types of photovoltaic power generation prediction models before and after the data screening. Results show that the prediction model combining with clustering analysis and BP neural networks is an effective method to improve the precision of photovoltaic power generation.

  17. Selected aspects of modelling of foreign exchange rates with neural networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Václav Mastný

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper deals with forecasting of the high-frequency foreign exchange market with neural networks. The objective is to investigate some aspects of modelling with neural networks (impact of topology, size of training set and time horizon of the forecast on the performance of the network. The data used for the purpose of this paper contain 15-minute time series of US dollar against other major currencies, Japanese Yen, British Pound and Euro. The results show, that performance of the network in terms of correct directorial change is negatively influenced by increasing number of hidden neurons and decreasing size of training set. The performance of the network is influenced by sampling frequency.

  18. water demand prediction using artificial neural network

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    user

    2017-01-01

    Jan 1, 2017 ... estimate water quantity and to make decisions that can prevent water scarcity. Timely implementation of such decisions lead to the improvement of network reliability and to the reduced occurrence of pipe burst and plant breakdown. On the other hand long- term forecasting helps to know the water demand ...

  19. Fin-and-tube condenser performance evaluation using neural networks

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zhao, Ling-Xiao [Institute of Refrigeration and Cryogenics, Shanghai Jiaotong University, Shanghai 200240 (China); Zhang, Chun-Lu [China R and D Center, Carrier Corporation, No. 3239 Shen Jiang Road, Shanghai 201206 (China)

    2010-05-15

    The paper presents neural network approach to performance evaluation of the fin-and-tube air-cooled condensers which are widely used in air-conditioning and refrigeration systems. Inputs of the neural network include refrigerant and air-flow rates, refrigerant inlet temperature and saturated temperature, and entering air dry-bulb temperature. Outputs of the neural network consist of the heating capacity and the pressure drops on both refrigerant and air sides. The multi-input multi-output (MIMO) neural network is separated into multi-input single-output (MISO) neural networks for training. Afterwards, the trained MISO neural networks are combined into a MIMO neural network, which indicates that the number of training data sets is determined by the biggest MISO neural network not the whole MIMO network. Compared with a validated first-principle model, the standard deviations of neural network models are less than 1.9%, and all errors fall into {+-}5%. (author)

  20. Application of artificial neural network with extreme learning machine for economic growth estimation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Milačić, Ljubiša; Jović, Srđan; Vujović, Tanja; Miljković, Jovica

    2017-01-01

    The purpose of this research is to develop and apply the artificial neural network (ANN) with extreme learning machine (ELM) to forecast gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate. The economic growth forecasting was analyzed based on agriculture, manufacturing, industry and services value added in GDP. The results were compared with ANN with back propagation (BP) learning approach since BP could be considered as conventional learning methodology. The reliability of the computational models was accessed based on simulation results and using several statistical indicators. Based on results, it was shown that ANN with ELM learning methodology can be applied effectively in applications of GDP forecasting.

  1. Prototype-Incorporated Emotional Neural Network.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oyedotun, Oyebade K; Khashman, Adnan

    2017-08-15

    Artificial neural networks (ANNs) aim to simulate the biological neural activities. Interestingly, many ''engineering'' prospects in ANN have relied on motivations from cognition and psychology studies. So far, two important learning theories that have been subject of active research are the prototype and adaptive learning theories. The learning rules employed for ANNs can be related to adaptive learning theory, where several examples of the different classes in a task are supplied to the network for adjusting internal parameters. Conversely, the prototype-learning theory uses prototypes (representative examples); usually, one prototype per class of the different classes contained in the task. These prototypes are supplied for systematic matching with new examples so that class association can be achieved. In this paper, we propose and implement a novel neural network algorithm based on modifying the emotional neural network (EmNN) model to unify the prototype- and adaptive-learning theories. We refer to our new model as ``prototype-incorporated EmNN''. Furthermore, we apply the proposed model to two real-life challenging tasks, namely, static hand-gesture recognition and face recognition, and compare the result to those obtained using the popular back-propagation neural network (BPNN), emotional BPNN (EmNN), deep networks, an exemplar classification model, and k-nearest neighbor.

  2. On sparsely connected optimal neural networks

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Beiu, V. [Los Alamos National Lab., NM (United States); Draghici, S. [Wayne State Univ., Detroit, MI (United States)

    1997-10-01

    This paper uses two different approaches to show that VLSI- and size-optimal discrete neural networks are obtained for small fan-in values. These have applications to hardware implementations of neural networks, but also reveal an intrinsic limitation of digital VLSI technology: its inability to cope with highly connected structures. The first approach is based on implementing F{sub n,m} functions. The authors show that this class of functions can be implemented in VLSI-optimal (i.e., minimizing AT{sup 2}) neural networks of small constant fan-ins. In order to estimate the area (A) and the delay (T) of such networks, the following cost functions will be used: (i) the connectivity and the number-of-bits for representing the weights and thresholds--for good estimates of the area; and (ii) the fan-ins and the length of the wires--for good approximates of the delay. The second approach is based on implementing Boolean functions for which the classical Shannon`s decomposition can be used. Such a solution has already been used to prove bounds on the size of fan-in 2 neural networks. They will generalize the result presented there to arbitrary fan-in, and prove that the size is minimized by small fan-in values. Finally, a size-optimal neural network of small constant fan-ins will be suggested for F{sub n,m} functions.

  3. Estimating Conditional Distributions by Neural Networks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kulczycki, P.; Schiøler, Henrik

    1998-01-01

    Neural Networks for estimating conditionaldistributions and their associated quantiles are investigated in this paper. A basic network structure is developed on the basis of kernel estimation theory, and consistency property is considered from a mild set of assumptions. A number of applications...

  4. Medical Text Classification using Convolutional Neural Networks

    OpenAIRE

    Hughes, Mark; Li, Irene; Kotoulas, Spyros; Suzumura, Toyotaro

    2017-01-01

    We present an approach to automatically classify clinical text at a sentence level. We are using deep convolutional neural networks to represent complex features. We train the network on a dataset providing a broad categorization of health information. Through a detailed evaluation, we demonstrate that our method outperforms several approaches widely used in natural language processing tasks by about 15%.

  5. Medical Text Classification Using Convolutional Neural Networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hughes, Mark; Li, Irene; Kotoulas, Spyros; Suzumura, Toyotaro

    2017-01-01

    We present an approach to automatically classify clinical text at a sentence level. We are using deep convolutional neural networks to represent complex features. We train the network on a dataset providing a broad categorization of health information. Through a detailed evaluation, we demonstrate that our method outperforms several approaches widely used in natural language processing tasks by about 15%.

  6. Artificial Neural Networks and Instructional Technology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carlson, Patricia A.

    1991-01-01

    Artificial neural networks (ANN), part of artificial intelligence, are discussed. Such networks are fed sample cases (training sets), learn how to recognize patterns in the sample data, and use this experience in handling new cases. Two cognitive roles for ANNs (intelligent filters and spreading, associative memories) are examined. Prototypes…

  7. Visual Servoing from Deep Neural Networks

    OpenAIRE

    Bateux, Quentin; Marchand, Eric; Leitner, Jürgen; Chaumette, Francois; Corke, Peter

    2017-01-01

    International audience; We present a deep neural network-based method to perform high-precision, robust and real-time 6 DOF visual servoing. The paper describes how to create a dataset simulating various perturbations (occlusions and lighting conditions) from a single real-world image of the scene. A convolutional neural network is fine-tuned using this dataset to estimate the relative pose between two images of the same scene. The output of the network is then employed in a visual servoing c...

  8. Design of Robust Neural Network Classifiers

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larsen, Jan; Andersen, Lars Nonboe; Hintz-Madsen, Mads

    1998-01-01

    This paper addresses a new framework for designing robust neural network classifiers. The network is optimized using the maximum a posteriori technique, i.e., the cost function is the sum of the log-likelihood and a regularization term (prior). In order to perform robust classification, we present...... a modified likelihood function which incorporates the potential risk of outliers in the data. This leads to the introduction of a new parameter, the outlier probability. Designing the neural classifier involves optimization of network weights as well as outlier probability and regularization parameters. We...

  9. Electronic device aspects of neural network memories

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lambe, J.; Moopenn, A.; Thakoor, A. P.

    1985-01-01

    The basic issues related to the electronic implementation of the neural network model (NNM) for content addressable memories are examined. A brief introduction to the principles of the NNM is followed by an analysis of the information storage of the neural network in the form of a binary connection matrix and the recall capability of such matrix memories based on a hardware simulation study. In addition, materials and device architecture issues involved in the future realization of such networks in VLSI-compatible ultrahigh-density memories are considered. A possible space application of such devices would be in the area of large-scale information storage without mechanical devices.

  10. IMPLEMENTASI NEURAL NETWORK UNTUK MEMPREDIKSI JUMLAH PENDERITA TUBERCULOSIS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    ahmad chamsudin

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Tuberkulosis (TBC merupakan salah satu jenis penyakit menular yang memiliki jumlah penderita yang sangat banyak, bahkan Indonesia menduduki urutan ke empat jumlah terbanyak penderita Tuberkulosis di dunia. Tuberkulosis telah banyak menyebabkan kematian pada penderitanya baik dari kalangan anak-anak, dewasa sampai lanjut usia. Dengan fenomena tersebut maka dibutuhkan studi untuk memprediksi jumlah penderita tuberkulosis pada tahun-tahun yang akan datang yang nantinya dapat digunakan sebagai pendukung keputusan medis. Dalam penelitian ini Neural network digunakan untuk memprediksi jumlah penyakit tuberkulosis dengan menggunakan data bulanan dalam jangka waktu duapuluh tahun terakhir. Metode yang digunakan untuk membangun neural network yaitu dengan menggunakan tiga macam algoritme yaitu Back Propagation, Quasi-Newton dan Lavemberg-Marquardt untuk dapat meminimalkan tingkat error, dengan harapan hasil yang dicapai bisa lebih tepat dalam memprediksi jumlah penyakit tuberkulosis. Dalam penelitian ini diperoleh hasil forecasting dengan mengukur tingkat akurasi forecasting dengan membandingkan nilai MAPE dan MSE, dari ketiga algoritme didapatkan  algoritme Lavemberg-Marquardt memiliki nilai MAPE dan MSE terbaik yaitu 9,15 % dan 43419 yang menunjukkan algoritme yang paling optimal dibanding yang lain

  11. A quantum-implementable neural network model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Jialin; Wang, Lingli; Charbon, Edoardo

    2017-10-01

    A quantum-implementable neural network, namely quantum probability neural network (QPNN) model, is proposed in this paper. QPNN can use quantum parallelism to trace all possible network states to improve the result. Due to its unique quantum nature, this model is robust to several quantum noises under certain conditions, which can be efficiently implemented by the qubus quantum computer. Another advantage is that QPNN can be used as memory to retrieve the most relevant data and even to generate new data. The MATLAB experimental results of Iris data classification and MNIST handwriting recognition show that much less neuron resources are required in QPNN to obtain a good result than the classical feedforward neural network. The proposed QPNN model indicates that quantum effects are useful for real-life classification tasks.

  12. Genetic Algorithm Optimization of Artificial Neural Networks for Hydrological Modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abrahart, R. J.

    2004-05-01

    This paper will consider the case for genetic algorithm optimization in the development of an artificial neural network model. It will provide a methodological evaluation of reported investigations with respect to hydrological forecasting and prediction. The intention in such operations is to develop a superior modelling solution that will be: \\begin{itemize} more accurate in terms of output precision and model estimation skill; more tractable in terms of personal requirements and end-user control; and/or more robust in terms of conceptual and mechanical power with respect to adverse conditions. The genetic algorithm optimization toolbox could be used to perform a number of specific roles or purposes and it is the harmonious and supportive relationship between neural networks and genetic algorithms that will be highlighted and assessed. There are several neural network mechanisms and procedures that could be enhanced and potential benefits are possible at different stages in the design and construction of an operational hydrological model e.g. division of inputs; identification of structure; initialization of connection weights; calibration of connection weights; breeding operations between successful models; and output fusion associated with the development of ensemble solutions. Each set of opportunities will be discussed and evaluated. Two strategic questions will also be considered: [i] should optimization be conducted as a set of small individual procedures or as one large holistic operation; [ii] what specific function or set of weighted vectors should be optimized in a complex software product e.g. timings, volumes, or quintessential hydrological attributes related to the 'problem situation' - that might require the development flood forecasting, drought estimation, or record infilling applications. The paper will conclude with a consideration of hydrological forecasting solutions developed on the combined methodologies of co-operative co-evolution and

  13. Neural network optimization, components, and design selection

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weller, Scott W.

    1990-07-01

    Neural Networks are part of a revived technology which has received a lot of hype in recent years. As is apt to happen in any hyped technology, jargon and predictions make its assimilation and application difficult. Nevertheless, Neural Networks have found use in a number of areas, working on non-trivial and noncontrived problems. For example, one net has been trained to "read", translating English text into phoneme sequences. Other applications of Neural Networks include data base manipulation and the solving of muting and classification types of optimization problems. Neural Networks are constructed from neurons, which in electronics or software attempt to model but are not constrained by the real thing, i.e., neurons in our gray matter. Neurons are simple processing units connected to many other neurons over pathways which modify the incoming signals. A single synthetic neuron typically sums its weighted inputs, runs this sum through a non-linear function, and produces an output. In the brain, neurons are connected in a complex topology: in hardware/software the topology is typically much simpler, with neurons lying side by side, forming layers of neurons which connect to the layer of neurons which receive their outputs. This simplistic model is much easier to construct than the real thing, and yet can solve real problems. The information in a network, or its "memory", is completely contained in the weights on the connections from one neuron to another. Establishing these weights is called "training" the network. Some networks are trained by design -- once constructed no further learning takes place. Other types of networks require iterative training once wired up, but are not trainable once taught Still other types of networks can continue to learn after initial construction. The main benefit to using Neural Networks is their ability to work with conflicting or incomplete ("fuzzy") data sets. This ability and its usefulness will become evident in the following

  14. Neutron spectrometry with artificial neural networks

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vega C, H.R.; Hernandez D, V.M.; Manzanares A, E.; Rodriguez, J.M.; Mercado S, G.A. [Universidad Autonoma de Zacatecas, A.P. 336, 98000 Zacatecas (Mexico); Iniguez de la Torre Bayo, M.P. [Universidad de Valladolid, Valladolid (Spain); Barquero, R. [Hospital Universitario Rio Hortega, Valladolid (Spain); Arteaga A, T. [Envases de Zacatecas, S.A. de C.V., Zacatecas (Mexico)]. e-mail: rvega@cantera.reduaz.mx

    2005-07-01

    An artificial neural network has been designed to obtain the neutron spectra from the Bonner spheres spectrometer's count rates. The neural network was trained using 129 neutron spectra. These include isotopic neutron sources; reference and operational spectra from accelerators and nuclear reactors, spectra from mathematical functions as well as few energy groups and monoenergetic spectra. The spectra were transformed from lethargy to energy distribution and were re-bin ned to 31 energy groups using the MCNP 4C code. Re-binned spectra and UTA4 response matrix were used to calculate the expected count rates in Bonner spheres spectrometer. These count rates were used as input and the respective spectrum was used as output during neural network training. After training the network was tested with the Bonner spheres count rates produced by a set of neutron spectra. This set contains data used during network training as well as data not used. Training and testing was carried out in the Mat lab program. To verify the network unfolding performance the original and unfolded spectra were compared using the {chi}{sup 2}-test and the total fluence ratios. The use of Artificial Neural Networks to unfold neutron spectra in neutron spectrometry is an alternative procedure that overcomes the drawbacks associated in this ill-conditioned problem. (Author)

  15. Neutron spectrometry using artificial neural networks

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vega-Carrillo, Hector Rene [Unidad Academica de Estudios Nucleares, Universidad Autonoma de Zacatecas, Apdo. Postal 336, 98000 Zacatecas, Zac. (Mexico)]|[Unidad Academica de Ing. Electrica, Universidad Autonoma de Zacatecas, Apdo. Postal 336, 98000 Zacatecas, Zac. (Mexico)]|[Unidad Academica de Matematicas, Universidad Autonoma de Zacatecas, Apdo. Postal 336, 98000 Zacatecas, Zac. (Mexico)]. E-mail: fermineutron@yahoo.com; Martin Hernandez-Davila, Victor [Unidad Academica de Estudios Nucleares, Universidad Autonoma de Zacatecas, Apdo. Postal 336, 98000 Zacatecas, Zac. (Mexico)]|[Unidad Academica de Ing. Electrica, Universidad Autonoma de Zacatecas, Apdo. Postal 336, 98000 Zacatecas, Zac. (Mexico); Manzanares-Acuna, Eduardo [Unidad Academica de Estudios Nucleares, Universidad Autonoma de Zacatecas, Apdo. Postal 336, 98000 Zacatecas, Zac. (Mexico); Mercado Sanchez, Gema A. [Unidad Academica de Matematicas, Universidad Autonoma de Zacatecas, Apdo. Postal 336, 98000 Zacatecas, Zac. (Mexico); Pilar Iniguez de la Torre, Maria [Depto. Fisica Teorica, Molecular y Nuclear, Universidad de Valladolid, Valladolid (Spain); Barquero, Raquel [Hospital Universitario Rio Hortega, Valladolid (Spain); Palacios, Francisco; Mendez Villafane, Roberto [Depto. Fisica Teorica, Molecular y Nuclear, Universidad de Valladolid, Valladolid (Spain)]|[Universidad Europea Miguel de Cervantes, C. Padre Julio Chevalier No. 2, 47012 Valladolid (Spain); Arteaga Arteaga, Tarcicio [Unidad Academica de Estudios Nucleares, Universidad Autonoma de Zacatecas, Apdo. Postal 336, 98000 Zacatecas, Zac. (Mexico)]|[Envases de Zacatecas, SA de CV, Parque Industrial de Calera de Victor Rosales, Zac. (Mexico); Manuel Ortiz Rodriguez, Jose [Unidad Academica de Estudios Nucleares, Universidad Autonoma de Zacatecas, Apdo. Postal 336, 98000 Zacatecas, Zac. (Mexico)]|[Unidad Academica de Ing. Electrica, Universidad Autonoma de Zacatecas, Apdo. Postal 336, 98000 Zacatecas, Zac. (Mexico)

    2006-04-15

    An artificial neural network has been designed to obtain neutron spectra from Bonner spheres spectrometer count rates. The neural network was trained using 129 neutron spectra. These include spectra from isotopic neutron sources; reference and operational spectra from accelerators and nuclear reactors, spectra based on mathematical functions as well as few energy groups and monoenergetic spectra. The spectra were transformed from lethargy to energy distribution and were re-binned to 31 energy groups using the MCNP 4C code. The re-binned spectra and the UTA4 response matrix were used to calculate the expected count rates in Bonner spheres spectrometer. These count rates were used as input and their respective spectra were used as output during the neural network training. After training, the network was tested with the Bonner spheres count rates produced by folding a set of neutron spectra with the response matrix. This set contains data used during network training as well as data not used. Training and testing was carried out using the Matlab{sup (R)} program. To verify the network unfolding performance, the original and unfolded spectra were compared using the root mean square error. The use of artificial neural networks to unfold neutron spectra in neutron spectrometry is an alternative procedure that overcomes the drawbacks associated with this ill-conditioned problem.

  16. Flood Forecasting via Time Lag Forward Network; Kelantan, Malaysia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jajarmizadeh, Milad; Mohd Sidek, Lariyah; Bte Basri, Hidayah; Shakira Jaffar, Aminah

    2016-03-01

    Forecasting water level is one of the critical issues in Malaysia for Kelantan region. Based on the flood events in 2014, this study investigates the hourly-forecasting of water level in one station namely Kg Jenob in Kelantan. For this issue, Time Lag Forward Network (TLFN) is evaluated for forecasting the water level as dynamic model. Heuristic method in stepwise forward methodology is performed. Rainfall and water level are the input and output of the modelling respectively. For selected flood period 15/12/2014 to 30/12/2014, 8 scenarios are developed to obtain a minimum error in water level forecasting. By monitoring the error, it will show that the optimum configuration of network has 2 processors in hidden layer and 7 lags have enough contribution on the result of hourly forecasting. Transfer functions in hidden and output layers are is Tangent hyperbolic and bias. Observed and simulated data are compared with usual error criteria called Mean Square Error (MSE) and Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) which obtained 0.005 and 0.07 respectively. In conclusion, this study will be as a baseline for Kelantan to show that TLFN has promising result to forecast the flood events.

  17. Antagonistic neural networks underlying differentiated leadership roles

    OpenAIRE

    Richard Eleftherios Boyatzis; Kylie eRochford; Anthony Ian Jack

    2014-01-01

    The emergence of two distinct leadership roles, the task leader and the socio-emotional leader, has been documented in the leadership literature since the 1950’s. Recent research in neuroscience suggests that the division between task oriented and socio-emotional oriented roles derives from a fundamental feature of our neurobiology: an antagonistic relationship between two large-scale cortical networks -- the Task Positive Network (TPN) and the Default Mode Network (DMN). Neural activity in ...

  18. Representations in neural network based empirical potentials

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cubuk, Ekin D.; Malone, Brad D.; Onat, Berk; Waterland, Amos; Kaxiras, Efthimios

    2017-07-01

    Many structural and mechanical properties of crystals, glasses, and biological macromolecules can be modeled from the local interactions between atoms. These interactions ultimately derive from the quantum nature of electrons, which can be prohibitively expensive to simulate. Machine learning has the potential to revolutionize materials modeling due to its ability to efficiently approximate complex functions. For example, neural networks can be trained to reproduce results of density functional theory calculations at a much lower cost. However, how neural networks reach their predictions is not well understood, which has led to them being used as a "black box" tool. This lack of understanding is not desirable especially for applications of neural networks in scientific inquiry. We argue that machine learning models trained on physical systems can be used as more than just approximations since they had to "learn" physical concepts in order to reproduce the labels they were trained on. We use dimensionality reduction techniques to study in detail the representation of silicon atoms at different stages in a neural network, which provides insight into how a neural network learns to model atomic interactions.

  19. Rede neural artificial aplicada à previsão de vazão da Bacia Hidrográfica do Rio Piancó Artificial neural network applied to the forecast of streamflow in the Piancó River Basin

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wanderson dos S. Sousa

    2010-02-01

    Full Text Available A previsão de vazão em um sistema hídrico não é apenas uma das técnicas utilizadas para minimizar o impacto das incertezas do clima sobre o gerenciamento dos recursos hídricos mas, também, um dos principais desafios relacionados ao conhecimento integrado da climatologia e da hidrologia de uma bacia hidrográfica. O objetivo deste trabalho foi modelar a relação não-linear entre chuva e vazão na bacia hidrográfica do rio Piancó, no semiárido paraibano, através da técnica de Redes Neurais Artificiais (RNA. Aqui se avaliou a capacidade da RNA modelar o processo chuva-vazão em base mensal e se considerou, durante o seu treinamento, a influência da arquitetura da rede e da inicialização dos pesos. No final do treinamento foi escolhida a melhor arquitetura para modelar vazões médias mensais na bacia estudada, com base no desempenho do modelo. A arquitetura de RNA que produziu melhor resultado foi a RC315L, com valores para o coeficiente de determinação, de eficiência e erro padrão da estimativa de 92,0, 77,0% e 8,29, respectivamente.Streamflow forecasting in a water system is one of the techniques used to reduce the impact of the uncertainties of the climate on administration of the water resources. That technique can be considered as one of the principal challenges related to the integrated knowledge of the climatology and of the hydrology of the river basin. The aim of this work was to model the non-linear relationship between rainfall and streamflow in the Piancó River Basin, in the Paraíba semiarid, using the technique of Artificial Neural Networks (ANN. Here the ability of ANN was evaluated to model the rainfall-runoff process on a monthly basis. During training of the ANN, the network architecture and weights initialization influence were considered. At the end of the training the best architecture was chosen, to model the streamflow monthly mean in the studied basin, based upon the performance of the model. The ANN

  20. Fluvial facies reservoir productivity prediction method based on principal component analysis and artificial neural network

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pengyu Gao

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available It is difficult to forecast the well productivity because of the complexity of vertical and horizontal developments in fluvial facies reservoir. This paper proposes a method based on Principal Component Analysis and Artificial Neural Network to predict well productivity of fluvial facies reservoir. The method summarizes the statistical reservoir factors and engineering factors that affect the well productivity, extracts information by applying the principal component analysis method and approximates arbitrary functions of the neural network to realize an accurate and efficient prediction on the fluvial facies reservoir well productivity. This method provides an effective way for forecasting the productivity of fluvial facies reservoir which is affected by multi-factors and complex mechanism. The study result shows that this method is a practical, effective, accurate and indirect productivity forecast method and is suitable for field application.

  1. One Prediction Model Based on BP Neural Network for Newcastle Disease

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Hongbin; Gong, Duqiang; Xiao, Jianhua; Zhang, Ru; Li, Lin

    The purpose of this paper is to investigate the correlation between meteorological factors and Newcastle disease incidence, and to determine the key factors that affect Newcastle disease. Having built BP neural network forecasting model by Matlab 7.0 software, we tested the performance of the model according to the coefficient of determination (R2) and absolute values of the difference between predictive value and practical incidence. The result showed that 6 kinds of meteorological factors determined, and the model's coefficient of determination is 0.760, and the performance of the model is very good. Finally, we build Newcastle disease forecasting model, and apply BP neural network theory in animal disease forecasting research firstly.

  2. Data Mining on Romanian Stock Market Using Neural Networks for Price Prediction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Magdalena Daniela NEMES

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Predicting future prices by using time series forecasting models has become a relevant trading strategy for most stock market players. Intuition and speculation are no longer reliable as many new trading strategies based on artificial intelligence emerge. Data mining represents a good source of information, as it ensures data processing in a convenient manner. Neural networks are considered useful prediction models when designing forecasting strategies. In this paper we present a series of neural networks designed for stock exchange rates forecasting applied on three Romanian stocks traded on the Bucharest Stock Exchange (BSE. A multistep ahead strategy was used in order to predict short-time price fluctuations. Later, the findings of our study can be integrated with an intelligent multi-agent system model which uses data mining and data stream processing techniques for helping users in the decision making process of buying or selling stocks.

  3. Community structure of complex networks based on continuous neural network

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dai, Ting-ting; Shan, Chang-ji; Dong, Yan-shou

    2017-09-01

    As a new subject, the research of complex networks has attracted the attention of researchers from different disciplines. Community structure is one of the key structures of complex networks, so it is a very important task to analyze the community structure of complex networks accurately. In this paper, we study the problem of extracting the community structure of complex networks, and propose a continuous neural network (CNN) algorithm. It is proved that for any given initial value, the continuous neural network algorithm converges to the eigenvector of the maximum eigenvalue of the network modularity matrix. Therefore, according to the stability of the evolution of the network symbol will be able to get two community structure.

  4. Flexible body control using neural networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mccullough, Claire L.

    1992-01-01

    Progress is reported on the control of Control Structures Interaction suitcase demonstrator (a flexible structure) using neural networks and fuzzy logic. It is concluded that while control by neural nets alone (i.e., allowing the net to design a controller with no human intervention) has yielded less than optimal results, the neural net trained to emulate the existing fuzzy logic controller does produce acceptible system responses for the initial conditions examined. Also, a neural net was found to be very successful in performing the emulation step necessary for the anticipatory fuzzy controller for the CSI suitcase demonstrator. The fuzzy neural hybrid, which exhibits good robustness and noise rejection properties, shows promise as a controller for practical flexible systems, and should be further evaluated.

  5. Identification and Position Control of Marine Helm using Artificial Neural Network Neural Network

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hui ZHU

    2008-02-01

    Full Text Available If nonlinearities such as saturation of the amplifier gain and motor torque, gear backlash, and shaft compliances- just to name a few - are considered in the position control system of marine helm, traditional control methods are no longer sufficient to be used to improve the performance of the system. In this paper an alternative approach to traditional control methods - a neural network reference controller - is proposed to establish an adaptive control of the position of the marine helm to achieve the controlled variable at the command position. This neural network controller comprises of two neural networks. One is the plant model network used to identify the nonlinear system and the other the controller network used to control the output to follow the reference model. The experimental results demonstrate that this adaptive neural network reference controller has much better control performance than is obtained with traditional controllers.

  6. Implementing Signature Neural Networks with Spiking Neurons.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carrillo-Medina, José Luis; Latorre, Roberto

    2016-01-01

    Spiking Neural Networks constitute the most promising approach to develop realistic Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs). Unlike traditional firing rate-based paradigms, information coding in spiking models is based on the precise timing of individual spikes. It has been demonstrated that spiking ANNs can be successfully and efficiently applied to multiple realistic problems solvable with traditional strategies (e.g., data classification or pattern recognition). In recent years, major breakthroughs in neuroscience research have discovered new relevant computational principles in different living neural systems. Could ANNs benefit from some of these recent findings providing novel elements of inspiration? This is an intriguing question for the research community and the development of spiking ANNs including novel bio-inspired information coding and processing strategies is gaining attention. From this perspective, in this work, we adapt the core concepts of the recently proposed Signature Neural Network paradigm-i.e., neural signatures to identify each unit in the network, local information contextualization during the processing, and multicoding strategies for information propagation regarding the origin and the content of the data-to be employed in a spiking neural network. To the best of our knowledge, none of these mechanisms have been used yet in the context of ANNs of spiking neurons. This paper provides a proof-of-concept for their applicability in such networks. Computer simulations show that a simple network model like the discussed here exhibits complex self-organizing properties. The combination of multiple simultaneous encoding schemes allows the network to generate coexisting spatio-temporal patterns of activity encoding information in different spatio-temporal spaces. As a function of the network and/or intra-unit parameters shaping the corresponding encoding modality, different forms of competition among the evoked patterns can emerge even in the absence

  7. Implementing Signature Neural Networks with Spiking Neurons

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carrillo-Medina, José Luis; Latorre, Roberto

    2016-01-01

    Spiking Neural Networks constitute the most promising approach to develop realistic Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs). Unlike traditional firing rate-based paradigms, information coding in spiking models is based on the precise timing of individual spikes. It has been demonstrated that spiking ANNs can be successfully and efficiently applied to multiple realistic problems solvable with traditional strategies (e.g., data classification or pattern recognition). In recent years, major breakthroughs in neuroscience research have discovered new relevant computational principles in different living neural systems. Could ANNs benefit from some of these recent findings providing novel elements of inspiration? This is an intriguing question for the research community and the development of spiking ANNs including novel bio-inspired information coding and processing strategies is gaining attention. From this perspective, in this work, we adapt the core concepts of the recently proposed Signature Neural Network paradigm—i.e., neural signatures to identify each unit in the network, local information contextualization during the processing, and multicoding strategies for information propagation regarding the origin and the content of the data—to be employed in a spiking neural network. To the best of our knowledge, none of these mechanisms have been used yet in the context of ANNs of spiking neurons. This paper provides a proof-of-concept for their applicability in such networks. Computer simulations show that a simple network model like the discussed here exhibits complex self-organizing properties. The combination of multiple simultaneous encoding schemes allows the network to generate coexisting spatio-temporal patterns of activity encoding information in different spatio-temporal spaces. As a function of the network and/or intra-unit parameters shaping the corresponding encoding modality, different forms of competition among the evoked patterns can emerge even in the

  8. Training Deep Spiking Neural Networks Using Backpropagation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Jun Haeng; Delbruck, Tobi; Pfeiffer, Michael

    2016-01-01

    Deep spiking neural networks (SNNs) hold the potential for improving the latency and energy efficiency of deep neural networks through data-driven event-based computation. However, training such networks is difficult due to the non-differentiable nature of spike events. In this paper, we introduce a novel technique, which treats the membrane potentials of spiking neurons as differentiable signals, where discontinuities at spike times are considered as noise. This enables an error backpropagation mechanism for deep SNNs that follows the same principles as in conventional deep networks, but works directly on spike signals and membrane potentials. Compared with previous methods relying on indirect training and conversion, our technique has the potential to capture the statistics of spikes more precisely. We evaluate the proposed framework on artificially generated events from the original MNIST handwritten digit benchmark, and also on the N-MNIST benchmark recorded with an event-based dynamic vision sensor, in which the proposed method reduces the error rate by a factor of more than three compared to the best previous SNN, and also achieves a higher accuracy than a conventional convolutional neural network (CNN) trained and tested on the same data. We demonstrate in the context of the MNIST task that thanks to their event-driven operation, deep SNNs (both fully connected and convolutional) trained with our method achieve accuracy equivalent with conventional neural networks. In the N-MNIST example, equivalent accuracy is achieved with about five times fewer computational operations.

  9. Memory-optimal neural network approximation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bölcskei, Helmut; Grohs, Philipp; Kutyniok, Gitta; Petersen, Philipp

    2017-08-01

    We summarize the main results of a recent theory-developed by the authors-establishing fundamental lower bounds on the connectivity and memory requirements of deep neural networks as a function of the complexity of the function class to be approximated by the network. These bounds are shown to be achievable. Specifically, all function classes that are optimally approximated by a general class of representation systems-so-called affine systems-can be approximated by deep neural networks with minimal connectivity and memory requirements. Affine systems encompass a wealth of representation systems from applied harmonic analysis such as wavelets, shearlets, ridgelets, α-shearlets, and more generally α-molecules. This result elucidates a remarkable universality property of deep neural networks and shows that they achieve the optimum approximation properties of all affine systems combined. Finally, we present numerical experiments demonstrating that the standard stochastic gradient descent algorithm generates deep neural networks which provide close-to-optimal approximation rates at minimal connectivity. Moreover, stochastic gradient descent is found to actually learn approximations that are sparse in the representation system optimally sparsifying the function class the network is trained on.

  10. Neural networks for sign language translation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilson, Beth J.; Anspach, Gretel

    1993-09-01

    A neural network is used to extract relevant features of sign language from video images of a person communicating in American Sign Language or Signed English. The key features are hand motion, hand location with respect to the body, and handshape. A modular hybrid design is under way to apply various techniques, including neural networks, in the development of a translation system that will facilitate communication between deaf and hearing people. One of the neural networks described here is used to classify video images of handshapes into their linguistic counterpart in American Sign Language. The video image is preprocessed to yield Fourier descriptors that encode the shape of the hand silhouette. These descriptors are then used as inputs to a neural network that classifies their shapes. The network is trained with various examples from different signers and is tested with new images from new signers. The results have shown that for coarse handshape classes, the network is invariant to the type of camera used to film the various signers and to the segmentation technique.

  11. Accelerated training for accurate neural net based load forecasting

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Borsje, H.J.; Ling, B. [Stone and Webster Advanced Systems Development Services, Inc., Boston, MA (United States)

    1995-10-01

    A fast, accurate, robust and reliable load forecast method was developed, tested and demonstrated. The achieved prediction accuracy, based on a practical input parameters, matches or exceeds that of currently used methods. The time required to train the system is orders of magnitude shorter than other methods. This gives utility personnel the tools to refine local forecasts by quickly evaluating the effect of user selectable parameters. The conventional back propagation method can accurately predict the adaptive one-hour ahead forecast with reasonable learning requirements.

  12. Equivalence of Conventional and Modified Network of Generalized Neural Elements

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E. V. Konovalov

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The article is devoted to the analysis of neural networks consisting of generalized neural elements. The first part of the article proposes a new neural network model — a modified network of generalized neural elements (MGNE-network. This network developes the model of generalized neural element, whose formal description contains some flaws. In the model of the MGNE-network these drawbacks are overcome. A neural network is introduced all at once, without preliminary description of the model of a single neural element and method of such elements interaction. The description of neural network mathematical model is simplified and makes it relatively easy to construct on its basis a simulation model to conduct numerical experiments. The model of the MGNE-network is universal, uniting properties of networks consisting of neurons-oscillators and neurons-detectors. In the second part of the article we prove the equivalence of the dynamics of the two considered neural networks: the network, consisting of classical generalized neural elements, and MGNE-network. We introduce the definition of equivalence in the functioning of the generalized neural element and the MGNE-network consisting of a single element. Then we introduce the definition of the equivalence of the dynamics of the two neural networks in general. It is determined the correlation of different parameters of the two considered neural network models. We discuss the issue of matching the initial conditions of the two considered neural network models. We prove the theorem about the equivalence of the dynamics of the two considered neural networks. This theorem allows us to apply all previously obtained results for the networks, consisting of classical generalized neural elements, to the MGNE-network.

  13. Neural networks and particle physics

    CERN Document Server

    Peterson, Carsten

    1993-01-01

    1. Introduction : Structure of the Central Nervous System Generics2. Feed-forward networks, Perceptions, Function approximators3. Self-organisation, Feature Maps4. Feed-back Networks, The Hopfield model, Optimization problems, Feed-back, Networks, Deformable templates, Graph bisection

  14. Cotton genotypes selection through artificial neural networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Júnior, E G Silva; Cardoso, D B O; Reis, M C; Nascimento, A F O; Bortolin, D I; Martins, M R; Sousa, L B

    2017-09-27

    Breeding programs currently use statistical analysis to assist in the identification of superior genotypes at various stages of a cultivar's development. Differently from these analyses, the computational intelligence approach has been little explored in genetic improvement of cotton. Thus, this study was carried out with the objective of presenting the use of artificial neural networks as auxiliary tools in the improvement of the cotton to improve fiber quality. To demonstrate the applicability of this approach, this research was carried out using the evaluation data of 40 genotypes. In order to classify the genotypes for fiber quality, the artificial neural networks were trained with replicate data of 20 genotypes of cotton evaluated in the harvests of 2013/14 and 2014/15, regarding fiber length, uniformity of length, fiber strength, micronaire index, elongation, short fiber index, maturity index, reflectance degree, and fiber quality index. This quality index was estimated by means of a weighted average on the determined score (1 to 5) of each characteristic of the HVI evaluated, according to its industry standards. The artificial neural networks presented a high capacity of correct classification of the 20 selected genotypes based on the fiber quality index, so that when using fiber length associated with the short fiber index, fiber maturation, and micronaire index, the artificial neural networks presented better results than using only fiber length and previous associations. It was also observed that to submit data of means of new genotypes to the neural networks trained with data of repetition, provides better results of classification of the genotypes. When observing the results obtained in the present study, it was verified that the artificial neural networks present great potential to be used in the different stages of a genetic improvement program of the cotton, aiming at the improvement of the fiber quality of the future cultivars.

  15. Neural network approaches for noisy language modeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Jun; Ouazzane, Karim; Kazemian, Hassan B; Afzal, Muhammad Sajid

    2013-11-01

    Text entry from people is not only grammatical and distinct, but also noisy. For example, a user's typing stream contains all the information about the user's interaction with computer using a QWERTY keyboard, which may include the user's typing mistakes as well as specific vocabulary, typing habit, and typing performance. In particular, these features are obvious in disabled users' typing streams. This paper proposes a new concept called noisy language modeling by further developing information theory and applies neural networks to one of its specific application-typing stream. This paper experimentally uses a neural network approach to analyze the disabled users' typing streams both in general and specific ways to identify their typing behaviors and subsequently, to make typing predictions and typing corrections. In this paper, a focused time-delay neural network (FTDNN) language model, a time gap model, a prediction model based on time gap, and a probabilistic neural network model (PNN) are developed. A 38% first hitting rate (HR) and a 53% first three HR in symbol prediction are obtained based on the analysis of a user's typing history through the FTDNN language modeling, while the modeling results using the time gap prediction model and the PNN model demonstrate that the correction rates lie predominantly in between 65% and 90% with the current testing samples, and 70% of all test scores above basic correction rates, respectively. The modeling process demonstrates that a neural network is a suitable and robust language modeling tool to analyze the noisy language stream. The research also paves the way for practical application development in areas such as informational analysis, text prediction, and error correction by providing a theoretical basis of neural network approaches for noisy language modeling.

  16. Multiresolution wavelet-ANN model for significant wave height forecasting.

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Deka, P.C.; Mandal, S.; Prahlada, R.

    Hybrid wavelet artificial neural network (WLNN) has been applied in the present study to forecast significant wave heights (Hs). Here Discrete Wavelet Transformation is used to preprocess the time series data (Hs) prior to Artificial Neural Network...

  17. Artificial neural network in cosmic landscape

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Junyu

    2017-12-01

    In this paper we propose that artificial neural network, the basis of machine learning, is useful to generate the inflationary landscape from a cosmological point of view. Traditional numerical simulations of a global cosmic landscape typically need an exponential complexity when the number of fields is large. However, a basic application of artificial neural network could solve the problem based on the universal approximation theorem of the multilayer perceptron. A toy model in inflation with multiple light fields is investigated numerically as an example of such an application.

  18. Top tagging with deep neural networks [Vidyo

    CERN Multimedia

    CERN. Geneva

    2017-01-01

    Recent literature on deep neural networks for top tagging has focussed on image based techniques or multivariate approaches using high level jet substructure variables. Here, we take a sequential approach to this task by using anordered sequence of energy deposits as training inputs. Unlike previous approaches, this strategy does not result in a loss of information during pixelization or the calculation of high level features. We also propose new preprocessing methods that do not alter key physical quantities such as jet mass. We compare the performance of this approach to standard tagging techniques and present results evaluating the robustness of the neural network to pileup.

  19. Automatic identification of species with neural networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hernández-Serna, Andrés; Jiménez-Segura, Luz Fernanda

    2014-01-01

    A new automatic identification system using photographic images has been designed to recognize fish, plant, and butterfly species from Europe and South America. The automatic classification system integrates multiple image processing tools to extract the geometry, morphology, and texture of the images. Artificial neural networks (ANNs) were used as the pattern recognition method. We tested a data set that included 740 species and 11,198 individuals. Our results show that the system performed with high accuracy, reaching 91.65% of true positive fish identifications, 92.87% of plants and 93.25% of butterflies. Our results highlight how the neural networks are complementary to species identification.

  20. Automatic identification of species with neural networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrés Hernández-Serna

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available A new automatic identification system using photographic images has been designed to recognize fish, plant, and butterfly species from Europe and South America. The automatic classification system integrates multiple image processing tools to extract the geometry, morphology, and texture of the images. Artificial neural networks (ANNs were used as the pattern recognition method. We tested a data set that included 740 species and 11,198 individuals. Our results show that the system performed with high accuracy, reaching 91.65% of true positive fish identifications, 92.87% of plants and 93.25% of butterflies. Our results highlight how the neural networks are complementary to species identification.

  1. Pulse image recognition using fuzzy neural network.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, L S; Meng, Max Q -H; Wang, K Q

    2007-01-01

    The automatic recognition of pulse images is the key in the research of computerized pulse diagnosis. In order to automatically differentiate the pulse patterns by using small samples, a fuzzy neural network to classify pulse images based on the knowledge of experts in traditional Chinese pulse diagnosis was designed. The designed classifier can make hard decision and soft decision for identifying 18 patterns of pulse images at the accuracy of 91%, which is better than the results that achieved by back-propagation neural network.

  2. Assessing Landslide Hazard Using Artificial Neural Network

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Farrokhzad, Farzad; Choobbasti, Asskar Janalizadeh; Barari, Amin

    2011-01-01

    failure" which is main concentration of the current research and "liquefaction failure". Shear failures along shear planes occur when the shear stress along the sliding surfaces exceed the effective shear strength. These slides have been referred to as landslide. An expert system based on artificial...... neural network has been developed for use in the stability evaluation of slopes under various geological conditions and engineering requirements. The Artificial neural network model of this research uses slope characteristics as input and leads to the output in form of the probability of failure...

  3. Neural networks advances and applications 2

    CERN Document Server

    Gelenbe, E

    1992-01-01

    The present volume is a natural follow-up to Neural Networks: Advances and Applications which appeared one year previously. As the title indicates, it combines the presentation of recent methodological results concerning computational models and results inspired by neural networks, and of well-documented applications which illustrate the use of such models in the solution of difficult problems. The volume is balanced with respect to these two orientations: it contains six papers concerning methodological developments and five papers concerning applications and examples illustrating the theoret

  4. Human Face Recognition Using Convolutional Neural Networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Răzvan-Daniel Albu

    2009-10-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, I present a novel hybrid face recognition approach based on a convolutional neural architecture, designed to robustly detect highly variable face patterns. The convolutional network extracts successively larger features in a hierarchical set of layers. With the weights of the trained neural networks there are created kernel windows used for feature extraction in a 3-stage algorithm. I present experimental results illustrating the efficiency of the proposed approach. I use a database of 796 images of 159 individuals from Reims University which contains quite a high degree of variability in expression, pose, and facial details.

  5. SAR ATR Based on Convolutional Neural Network

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tian Zhuangzhuang

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available This study presents a new method of Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR image target recognition based on a convolutional neural network. First, we introduce a class separability measure into the cost function to improve this network’s ability to distinguish between categories. Then, we extract SAR image features using the improved convolutional neural network and classify these features using a support vector machine. Experimental results using moving and stationary target acquisition and recognition SAR datasets prove the validity of this method.

  6. Hot metal temperature prediction by neural networks in the blast furnace; Prediccion mediante redes neuronales de la temperatura de arrabio de un horno alto. Temperatura subyacente de arrabio

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cantera, C.; Jimenez, J.; Varela, I.; Formoso, A.

    2002-07-01

    Based on a simplified model, the underlying temperature criteria is proposed as a method to study the temperature trends in a blast furnace. As an application, a neural network able to forecast hot metal temperatures from 2 to 16 h in advance (with decreasing precision) has been built. This neural network has been designed to work at real time in a production plant. (Author)

  7. Modeling of surface dust concentrations using neural networks and kriging

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buevich, Alexander G.; Medvedev, Alexander N.; Sergeev, Alexander P.; Tarasov, Dmitry A.; Shichkin, Andrey V.; Sergeeva, Marina V.; Atanasova, T. B.

    2016-12-01

    Creating models which are able to accurately predict the distribution of pollutants based on a limited set of input data is an important task in environmental studies. In the paper two neural approaches: (multilayer perceptron (MLP)) and generalized regression neural network (GRNN)), and two geostatistical approaches: (kriging and cokriging), are using for modeling and forecasting of dust concentrations in snow cover. The area of study is under the influence of dust emissions from a copper quarry and a several industrial companies. The comparison of two mentioned approaches is conducted. Three indices are used as the indicators of the models accuracy: the mean absolute error (MAE), root mean square error (RMSE) and relative root mean square error (RRMSE). Models based on artificial neural networks (ANN) have shown better accuracy. When considering all indices, the most precision model was the GRNN, which uses as input parameters for modeling the coordinates of sampling points and the distance to the probable emissions source. The results of work confirm that trained ANN may be more suitable tool for modeling of dust concentrations in snow cover.

  8. Forecasting daily source air quality using multivariate statistical analysis and radial basis function networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, Gang; Hoff, Steven J; Zelle, Brian C; Nelson, Minda A

    2008-12-01

    It is vital to forecast gas and particle matter concentrations and emission rates (GPCER) from livestock production facilities to assess the impact of airborne pollutants on human health, ecological environment, and global warming. Modeling source air quality is a complex process because of abundant nonlinear interactions between GPCER and other factors. The objective of this study was to introduce statistical methods and radial basis function (RBF) neural network to predict daily source air quality in Iowa swine deep-pit finishing buildings. The results show that four variables (outdoor and indoor temperature, animal units, and ventilation rates) were identified as relative important model inputs using statistical methods. It can be further demonstrated that only two factors, the environment factor and the animal factor, were capable of explaining more than 94% of the total variability after performing principal component analysis. The introduction of fewer uncorrelated variables to the neural network would result in the reduction of the model structure complexity, minimize computation cost, and eliminate model overfitting problems. The obtained results of RBF network prediction were in good agreement with the actual measurements, with values of the correlation coefficient between 0.741 and 0.995 and very low values of systemic performance indexes for all the models. The good results indicated the RBF network could be trained to model these highly nonlinear relationships. Thus, the RBF neural network technology combined with multivariate statistical methods is a promising tool for air pollutant emissions modeling.

  9. An R implementation of a Recurrent Neural Network Trained by Extended Kalman Filter

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bogdan Oancea

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Nowadays there are several techniques used for forecasting with different performances and accuracies. One of the most performant techniques for time series prediction is neural networks. The accuracy of the predictions greatly depends on the network architecture and training method. In this paper we describe an R implementation of a recurrent neural network trained by the Extended Kalman Filter. For the implementation of the network we used the Matrix package that allows efficient vector-matrix and matrix-matrix operations. We tested the performance of our R implementation comparing it with a pure C++ implementation and we showed that R can achieve about 75% of the C++ programs. Considering the other advantages of R, our results recommend R as a serious alternative to classical programming languages for high performance implementations of neural networks.

  10. Exploiting network redundancy for low-cost neural network realizations.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Keegstra, H; Jansen, WJ; Nijhuis, JAG; Spaanenburg, L; Stevens, H; Udding, JT

    1996-01-01

    A method is presented to optimize a trained neural network for physical realization styles. Target architectures are embedded microcontrollers or standard cell based ASIC designs. The approach exploits the redundancy in the network, required for successful training, to replace the synaptic weighting

  11. Removing Epistemological Bias From Empirical Observation of Neural Networks

    OpenAIRE

    Waldron, Ronan

    1994-01-01

    Also in Proceedings of the International Joint Conference on Neural Networks, Nagoya, Japan. This paper addresses the application of neural network research to a theory of autonomous systems. Neural networks, while enjoying considerable success in autonomous systems applications, have failed to provide a firm theoretical underpinning to neural systems embedded in their natural ecological context. This paper proposes a stochastic formulation of such an embedding. A neural sys...

  12. Parameter Identification by Bayes Decision and Neural Networks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kulczycki, P.; Schiøler, Henrik

    1994-01-01

    The problem of parameter identification by Bayes point estimation using neural networks is investigated.......The problem of parameter identification by Bayes point estimation using neural networks is investigated....

  13. On The Comparison of Artificial Neural Network (ANN) and ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    West African Journal of Industrial and Academic Research ... This work presented the results of an experimental comparison of two models: Multinomial Logistic Regression (MLR) and Artificial Neural Network (ANN) for ... Keywords: Multinomial Logistic Regression, Artificial Neural Network, Correct classification rate.

  14. A NEURAL OSCILLATOR-NETWORK MODEL OF TEMPORAL PATTERN GENERATION

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Schomaker, Lambert

    Most contemporary neural network models deal with essentially static, perceptual problems of classification and transformation. Models such as multi-layer feedforward perceptrons generally do not incorporate time as an essential dimension, whereas biological neural networks are inherently temporal

  15. Neural networks of human nature and nurture

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daniel S. Levine

    2009-11-01

    Full Text Available Neural network methods have facilitated the unification of several unfortunate splits in psychology, including nature versus nurture. We review the contributions of this methodology and then discuss tentative network theories of caring behavior, of uncaring behavior, and of how the frontal lobes are involved in the choices between them. The implications of our theory are optimistic about the prospects of society to encourage the human potential for caring.

  16. PERAMALAN KONSUMSI LISTRIK JANGKA PENDEK DENGAN ARIMA MUSIMAN GANDA DAN ELMAN-RECURRENT NEURAL NETWORK

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Suhartono Suhartono

    2009-07-01

    Full Text Available Neural network (NN is one of many method used to predict the electricity consumption per hour in many countries. NN method which is used in many previous studies is Feed-Forward Neural Network (FFNN or Autoregressive Neural Network(AR-NN. AR-NN model is not able to capture and explain the effect of moving average (MA order on a time series of data. This research was conducted with the purpose of reviewing the application of other types of NN, that is Elman-Recurrent Neural Network (Elman-RNN which could explain MA order effect and compare the result of prediction accuracy with multiple seasonal ARIMA (Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average models. As a case study, we used data electricity consumption per hour in Mengare Gresik. Result of analysis showed that the best of double seasonal Arima models suited to short-term forecasting in the case study data is ARIMA([1,2,3,4,6,7,9,10,14,21,33],1,8(0,1,124 (1,1,0168. This model produces a white noise residuals, but it does not have a normal distribution due to suspected outlier. Outlier detection in iterative produce 14 innovation outliers. There are 4 inputs of Elman-RNN network that were examined and tested for forecasting the data, the input according to lag Arima, input such as lag Arima plus 14 dummy outlier, inputs are the lag-multiples of 24 up to lag 480, and the inputs are lag 1 and lag multiples of 24+1. All of four network uses one hidden layer with tangent sigmoid activation function and one output with a linear function. The result of comparative forecast accuracy through value of MAPE out-sample showed that the fourth networks, namely Elman-RNN (22, 3, 1, is the best model for forecasting electricity consumption per hour in short term in Mengare Gresik.

  17. Neural network for sonogram gap filling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Klebæk, Henrik; Jensen, Jørgen Arendt; Hansen, Lars Kai

    1995-01-01

    a neural network for predicting mean frequency of the velocity signal and its variance. The neural network then predicts the evolution of the mean and variance in the gaps, and the sonogram and audio signal are reconstructed from these. The technique is applied on in-vivo data from the carotid artery...... in the sonogram and in the audio signal, rendering the audio signal useless, thus making diagnosis difficult. The current goal for ultrasound scanners is to maintain a high refresh rate for the B-mode image and at the same time attain a high maximum velocity in the sonogram display. This precludes the intermixing...... series, and is shown to yield better results, i.e., the variances of the predictions are lower. The ability of the neural predictor to reconstruct both the sonogram and the audio signal, when only 50% of the time is used for velocity data acquisition, is demonstrated for the in-vivo data...

  18. Digital Neural Networks for New Media

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spaanenburg, Lambert; Malki, Suleyman

    Neural Networks perform computationally intensive tasks offering smart solutions for many new media applications. A number of analog and mixed digital/analog implementations have been proposed to smooth the algorithmic gap. But gradually, the digital implementation has become feasible, and the dedicated neural processor is on the horizon. A notable example is the Cellular Neural Network (CNN). The analog direction has matured for low-power, smart vision sensors; the digital direction is gradually being shaped into an IP-core for algorithm acceleration, especially for use in FPGA-based high-performance systems. The chapter discusses the next step towards a flexible and scalable multi-core engine using Application-Specific Integrated Processors (ASIP). This topographic engine can serve many new media tasks, as illustrated by novel applications in Homeland Security. We conclude with a view on the CNN kaleidoscope for the year 2020.

  19. Optimizing neural network models: motivation and case studies

    OpenAIRE

    Harp, S A; T. Samad

    2012-01-01

    Practical successes have been achieved  with neural network models in a variety of domains, including energy-related industry. The large, complex design space presented by neural networks is only minimally explored in current practice. The satisfactory results that nevertheless have been obtained testify that neural networks are a robust modeling technology; at the same time, however, the lack of a systematic design approach implies that the best neural network models generally  rem...

  20. Dynamic Object Identification with SOM-based neural networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aleksey Averkin

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available In this article a number of neural networks based on self-organizing maps, that can be successfully used for dynamic object identification, is described. Unique SOM-based modular neural networks with vector quantized associative memory and recurrent self-organizing maps as modules are presented. The structured algorithms of learning and operation of such SOM-based neural networks are described in details, also some experimental results and comparison with some other neural networks are given.

  1. Stock Price Prediction Based on Procedural Neural Networks

    OpenAIRE

    Jiuzhen Liang; Wei Song; Mei Wang

    2011-01-01

    We present a spatiotemporal model, namely, procedural neural networks for stock price prediction. Compared with some successful traditional models on simulating stock market, such as BNN (backpropagation neural networks, HMM (hidden Markov model) and SVM (support vector machine)), the procedural neural network model processes both spacial and temporal information synchronously without slide time window, which is typically used in the well-known recurrent neural networks. Two differen...

  2. The Method of Oilfield Development Risk Forecasting and Early Warning Using Revised Bayesian Network

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yihua Zhong

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Oilfield development aiming at crude oil production is an extremely complex process, which involves many uncertain risk factors affecting oil output. Thus, risk prediction and early warning about oilfield development may insure operating and managing oilfields efficiently to meet the oil production plan of the country and sustainable development of oilfields. However, scholars and practitioners in the all world are seldom concerned with the risk problem of oilfield block development. The early warning index system of blocks development which includes the monitoring index and planning index was refined and formulated on the basis of researching and analyzing the theory of risk forecasting and early warning as well as the oilfield development. Based on the indexes of warning situation predicted by neural network, the method dividing the interval of warning degrees was presented by “3σ” rule; and a new method about forecasting and early warning of risk was proposed by introducing neural network to Bayesian networks. Case study shows that the results obtained in this paper are right and helpful to the management of oilfield development risk.

  3. Computational capabilities of graph neural networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scarselli, Franco; Gori, Marco; Tsoi, Ah Chung; Hagenbuchner, Markus; Monfardini, Gabriele

    2009-01-01

    In this paper, we will consider the approximation properties of a recently introduced neural network model called graph neural network (GNN), which can be used to process-structured data inputs, e.g., acyclic graphs, cyclic graphs, and directed or undirected graphs. This class of neural networks implements a function tau(G,n) is an element of IR(m) that maps a graph G and one of its nodes n onto an m-dimensional Euclidean space. We characterize the functions that can be approximated by GNNs, in probability, up to any prescribed degree of precision. This set contains the maps that satisfy a property called preservation of the unfolding equivalence, and includes most of the practically useful functions on graphs; the only known exception is when the input graph contains particular patterns of symmetries when unfolding equivalence may not be preserved. The result can be considered an extension of the universal approximation property established for the classic feedforward neural networks (FNNs). Some experimental examples are used to show the computational capabilities of the proposed model.

  4. Parameter estimation using compensatory neural networks

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Proposed here is a new neuron model, a basis for Compensatory Neural Network Architecture (CNNA), which not only reduces the total number of interconnections among neurons but also reduces the total computing time for training. The suggested model has properties of the basic neuron model as well as the higher ...

  5. Based on BP Neural Network Stock Prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Xiangwei; Ma, Xin

    2012-01-01

    The stock market has a high profit and high risk features, on the stock market analysis and prediction research has been paid attention to by people. Stock price trend is a complex nonlinear function, so the price has certain predictability. This article mainly with improved BP neural network (BPNN) to set up the stock market prediction model, and…

  6. Epileptiform spike detection via convolutional neural networks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Johansen, Alexander Rosenberg; Jin, Jing; Maszczyk, Tomasz

    2016-01-01

    The EEG of epileptic patients often contains sharp waveforms called "spikes", occurring between seizures. Detecting such spikes is crucial for diagnosing epilepsy. In this paper, we develop a convolutional neural network (CNN) for detecting spikes in EEG of epileptic patients in an automated...

  7. Artificial neural networks and support vector mac

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Quantitative structure-property relationships of electroluminescent materials: Artificial neural networks and support vector machines to predict electroluminescence of organic molecules. ALANA FERNANDES GOLIN and RICARDO STEFANI. ∗. Laboratório de Estudos de Materiais (LEMAT), Instituto de Ciências Exatas e da ...

  8. Neural Networks for protein Structure Prediction

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bohr, Henrik

    1998-01-01

    This is a review about neural network applications in bioinformatics. Especially the applications to protein structure prediction, e.g. prediction of secondary structures, prediction of surface structure, fold class recognition and prediction of the 3-dimensional structure of protein backbones...

  9. Towards semen quality assessment using neural networks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Linneberg, Christian; Salamon, P.; Svarer, C.

    1994-01-01

    The paper presents the methodology and results from a neural net based classification of human sperm head morphology. The methodology uses a preprocessing scheme in which invariant Fourier descriptors are lumped into “energy” bands. The resulting networks are pruned using optimal brain damage...

  10. Convolutional Neural Networks for SAR Image Segmentation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Malmgren-Hansen, David; Nobel-Jørgensen, Morten

    2015-01-01

    Segmentation of Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) images has several uses, but it is a difficult task due to a number of properties related to SAR images. In this article we show how Convolutional Neural Networks (CNNs) can easily be trained for SAR image segmentation with good results. Besides...

  11. Convolutional Neural Networks - Generalizability and Interpretations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Malmgren-Hansen, David

    from data despite it being limited in amount or context representation. Within Machine Learning this thesis focuses on Convolutional Neural Networks for Computer Vision. The research aims to answer how to explore a model's generalizability to the whole population of data samples and how to interpret...

  12. Visualization of neural networks using saliency maps

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mørch, Niels J.S.; Kjems, Ulrik; Hansen, Lars Kai

    1995-01-01

    The saliency map is proposed as a new method for understanding and visualizing the nonlinearities embedded in feedforward neural networks, with emphasis on the ill-posed case, where the dimensionality of the input-field by far exceeds the number of examples. Several levels of approximations...

  13. Separable explanations of neural network decisions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rieger, Laura

    2017-01-01

    Deep Taylor Decomposition is a method used to explain neural network decisions. When applying this method to non-dominant classifications, the resulting explanation does not reflect important features for the chosen classification. We propose that this is caused by the dense layers and propose...

  14. Fast Fingerprint Classification with Deep Neural Network

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Michelsanti, Daniel; Guichi, Yanis; Ene, Andreea-Daniela

    2017-01-01

    . In this work we evaluate the performance of two pre-trained convolutional neural networks fine-tuned on the NIST SD4 benchmark database. The obtained results show that this approach is comparable with other results in the literature, with the advantage of a fast feature extraction stage....

  15. Empirical generalization assessment of neural network models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larsen, Jan; Hansen, Lars Kai

    1995-01-01

    This paper addresses the assessment of generalization performance of neural network models by use of empirical techniques. We suggest to use the cross-validation scheme combined with a resampling technique to obtain an estimate of the generalization performance distribution of a specific model...

  16. Localizing Tortoise Nests by Neural Networks.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Roberto Barbuti

    Full Text Available The goal of this research is to recognize the nest digging activity of tortoises using a device mounted atop the tortoise carapace. The device classifies tortoise movements in order to discriminate between nest digging, and non-digging activity (specifically walking and eating. Accelerometer data was collected from devices attached to the carapace of a number of tortoises during their two-month nesting period. Our system uses an accelerometer and an activity recognition system (ARS which is modularly structured using an artificial neural network and an output filter. For the purpose of experiment and comparison, and with the aim of minimizing the computational cost, the artificial neural network has been modelled according to three different architectures based on the input delay neural network (IDNN. We show that the ARS can achieve very high accuracy on segments of data sequences, with an extremely small neural network that can be embedded in programmable low power devices. Given that digging is typically a long activity (up to two hours, the application of ARS on data segments can be repeated over time to set up a reliable and efficient system, called Tortoise@, for digging activity recognition.

  17. Feature to prototype transition in neural networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krotov, Dmitry; Hopfield, John

    Models of associative memory with higher order (higher than quadratic) interactions, and their relationship to neural networks used in deep learning are discussed. Associative memory is conventionally described by recurrent neural networks with dynamical convergence to stable points. Deep learning typically uses feedforward neural nets without dynamics. However, a simple duality relates these two different views when applied to problems of pattern classification. From the perspective of associative memory such models deserve attention because they make it possible to store a much larger number of memories, compared to the quadratic case. In the dual description, these models correspond to feedforward neural networks with one hidden layer and unusual activation functions transmitting the activities of the visible neurons to the hidden layer. These activation functions are rectified polynomials of a higher degree rather than the rectified linear functions used in deep learning. The network learns representations of the data in terms of features for rectified linear functions, but as the power in the activation function is increased there is a gradual shift to a prototype-based representation, the two extreme regimes of pattern recognition known in cognitive psychology. Simons Center for Systems Biology.

  18. Applying Artificial Neural Networks for Face Recognition

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Thai Hoang Le

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper introduces some novel models for all steps of a face recognition system. In the step of face detection, we propose a hybrid model combining AdaBoost and Artificial Neural Network (ABANN to solve the process efficiently. In the next step, labeled faces detected by ABANN will be aligned by Active Shape Model and Multi Layer Perceptron. In this alignment step, we propose a new 2D local texture model based on Multi Layer Perceptron. The classifier of the model significantly improves the accuracy and the robustness of local searching on faces with expression variation and ambiguous contours. In the feature extraction step, we describe a methodology for improving the efficiency by the association of two methods: geometric feature based method and Independent Component Analysis method. In the face matching step, we apply a model combining many Neural Networks for matching geometric features of human face. The model links many Neural Networks together, so we call it Multi Artificial Neural Network. MIT + CMU database is used for evaluating our proposed methods for face detection and alignment. Finally, the experimental results of all steps on CallTech database show the feasibility of our proposed model.

  19. drinking water treatment using artificial neural network

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    ogwueleka

    synaptic weights are used to store the knowledge.” The neural network approach is a branch of artificial intelligence. The ANN is based on a model of the human neurological system that consists of basic computing elements (called neurons) interconnected together (Figure 1). The model used for all classification attempts.

  20. Artificial neural networks in neutron dosimetry

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vega C, H.R.; Hernandez D, V.M.; Manzanares A, E.; Mercado, G.A.; Perales M, W.A.; Robles R, J.A. [Unidades Academicas de Estudios Nucleares, UAZ, A.P. 336, 98000 Zacatecas (Mexico); Gallego, E.; Lorente, A. [Depto. de Ingenieria Nuclear, Universidad Politecnica de Madrid, (Spain)

    2005-07-01

    An artificial neural network has been designed to obtain the neutron doses using only the Bonner spheres spectrometer's count rates. Ambient, personal and effective neutron doses were included. 187 neutron spectra were utilized to calculate the Bonner count rates and the neutron doses. The spectra were transformed from lethargy to energy distribution and were re-binned to 31 energy groups using the MCNP 4C code. Re-binned spectra, UTA4 response matrix and fluence-to-dose coefficients were used to calculate the count rates in Bonner spheres spectrometer and the doses. Count rates were used as input and the respective doses were used as output during neural network training. Training and testing was carried out in Mat lab environment. The artificial neural network performance was evaluated using the {chi}{sup 2}- test, where the original and calculated doses were compared. The use of Artificial Neural Networks in neutron dosimetry is an alternative procedure that overcomes the drawbacks associated in this ill-conditioned problem. (Author)

  1. Learning chaotic attractors by neural networks

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bakker, R; Schouten, JC; Giles, CL; Takens, F; van den Bleek, CM

    2000-01-01

    An algorithm is introduced that trains a neural network to identify chaotic dynamics from a single measured time series. During training, the algorithm learns to short-term predict the time series. At the same time a criterion, developed by Diks, van Zwet, Takens, and de Goede (1996) is monitored

  2. Nonlinear Time Series Analysis via Neural Networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Volná, Eva; Janošek, Michal; Kocian, Václav; Kotyrba, Martin

    This article deals with a time series analysis based on neural networks in order to make an effective forex market [Moore and Roche, J. Int. Econ. 58, 387-411 (2002)] pattern recognition. Our goal is to find and recognize important patterns which repeatedly appear in the market history to adapt our trading system behaviour based on them.

  3. Neural networks, penalty logic and optimality theory

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Blutner, R.; Benz, A.; Blutner, R.

    2009-01-01

    Ever since the discovery of neural networks, there has been a controversy between two modes of information processing. On the one hand, symbolic systems have proven indispensable for our understanding of higher intelligence, especially when cognitive domains like language and reasoning are examined.

  4. Image inpainting using a neural network

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gapon Nikolay

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The paper describes a new method of two-dimensional signals reconstruction by restoring static images. A new method of spatial reconstruction of static images based on a geometric model using a neural network is proposed, it is based on the search for similar blocks and copying them into the region of distorted or missing pixel values.

  5. Online Learning Algorithm for Time Series Forecasting Suitable for Low Cost Wireless Sensor Networks Nodes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Juan Pardo

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available Time series forecasting is an important predictive methodology which can be applied to a wide range of problems. Particularly, forecasting the indoor temperature permits an improved utilization of the HVAC (Heating, Ventilating and Air Conditioning systems in a home and thus a better energy efficiency. With such purpose the paper describes how to implement an Artificial Neural Network (ANN algorithm in a low cost system-on-chip to develop an autonomous intelligent wireless sensor network. The present paper uses a Wireless Sensor Networks (WSN to monitor and forecast the indoor temperature in a smart home, based on low resources and cost microcontroller technology as the 8051MCU. An on-line learning approach, based on Back-Propagation (BP algorithm for ANNs, has been developed for real-time time series learning. It performs the model training with every new data that arrive to the system, without saving enormous quantities of data to create a historical database as usual, i.e., without previous knowledge. Consequently to validate the approach a simulation study through a Bayesian baseline model have been tested in order to compare with a database of a real application aiming to see the performance and accuracy. The core of the paper is a new algorithm, based on the BP one, which has been described in detail, and the challenge was how to implement a computational demanding algorithm in a simple architecture with very few hardware resources.

  6. Online learning algorithm for time series forecasting suitable for low cost wireless sensor networks nodes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pardo, Juan; Zamora-Martínez, Francisco; Botella-Rocamora, Paloma

    2015-04-21

    Time series forecasting is an important predictive methodology which can be applied to a wide range of problems. Particularly, forecasting the indoor temperature permits an improved utilization of the HVAC (Heating, Ventilating and Air Conditioning) systems in a home and thus a better energy efficiency. With such purpose the paper describes how to implement an Artificial Neural Network (ANN) algorithm in a low cost system-on-chip to develop an autonomous intelligent wireless sensor network. The present paper uses a Wireless Sensor Networks (WSN) to monitor and forecast the indoor temperature in a smart home, based on low resources and cost microcontroller technology as the 8051MCU. An on-line learning approach, based on Back-Propagation (BP) algorithm for ANNs, has been developed for real-time time series learning. It performs the model training with every new data that arrive to the system, without saving enormous quantities of data to create a historical database as usual, i.e., without previous knowledge. Consequently to validate the approach a simulation study through a Bayesian baseline model have been tested in order to compare with a database of a real application aiming to see the performance and accuracy. The core of the paper is a new algorithm, based on the BP one, which has been described in detail, and the challenge was how to implement a computational demanding algorithm in a simple architecture with very few hardware resources.

  7. Foetal ECG recovery using dynamic neural networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Camps-Valls, Gustavo; Martínez-Sober, Marcelino; Soria-Olivas, Emilio; Magdalena-Benedito, Rafael; Calpe-Maravilla, Javier; Guerrero-Martínez, Juan

    2004-07-01

    Non-invasive electrocardiography has proven to be a very interesting method for obtaining information about the foetus state and thus to assure its well-being during pregnancy. One of the main applications in this field is foetal electrocardiogram (ECG) recovery by means of automatic methods. Evident problems found in the literature are the limited number of available registers, the lack of performance indicators, and the limited use of non-linear adaptive methods. In order to circumvent these problems, we first introduce the generation of synthetic registers and discuss the influence of different kinds of noise to the modelling. Second, a method which is based on numerical (correlation coefficient) and statistical (analysis of variance, ANOVA) measures allows us to select the best recovery model. Finally, finite impulse response (FIR) and gamma neural networks are included in the adaptive noise cancellation (ANC) scheme in order to provide highly non-linear, dynamic capabilities to the recovery model. Neural networks are benchmarked with classical adaptive methods such as the least mean squares (LMS) and the normalized LMS (NLMS) algorithms in simulated and real registers and some conclusions are drawn. For synthetic registers, the most determinant factor in the identification of the models is the foetal-maternal signal-to-noise ratio (SNR). In addition, as the electromyogram contribution becomes more relevant, neural networks clearly outperform the LMS-based algorithm. From the ANOVA test, we found statistical differences between LMS-based models and neural models when complex situations (high foetal-maternal and foetal-noise SNRs) were present. These conclusions were confirmed after doing robustness tests on synthetic registers, visual inspection of the recovered signals and calculation of the recognition rates of foetal R-peaks for real situations. Finally, the best compromise between model complexity and outcomes was provided by the FIR neural network. Both

  8. AIR POLLUITON INDEX PREDICTION USING MULTIPLE NEURAL NETWORKS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zainal Ahmad

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available Air quality monitoring and forecasting tools are necessary for the purpose of taking precautionary measures against air pollution, such as reducing the effect of a predicted air pollution peak on the surrounding population and ecosystem. In this study a single Feed-forward Artificial Neural Network (FANN is shown to be able to predict the Air Pollution Index (API with a Mean Squared Error (MSE and coefficient determination, R2, of 0.1856 and 0.7950 respectively. However, due to the non-robust nature of single FANN, a selective combination of Multiple Neural Networks (MNN is introduced using backward elimination and a forward selection method. The results show that both selective combination methods can improve the robustness and performance of the API prediction with the MSE and R2 of 0.1614 and 0.8210 respectively. This clearly shows that it is possible to reduce the number of networks combined in MNN for API prediction, without losses of any information in terms of the performance of the final API prediction model.

  9. MBVCNN: Joint convolutional neural networks method for image recognition

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tong, Tong; Mu, Xiaodong; Zhang, Li; Yi, Zhaoxiang; Hu, Pei

    2017-05-01

    Aiming at the problem of objects in image recognition rectangle, but objects which are input into convolutional neural networks square, the object recognition model was put forward which was based on BING method to realize object estimate, used vectorization of convolutional neural networks to realize input square image in convolutional networks, therefore, built joint convolution neural networks, which achieve multiple size image input. Verified by experiments, the accuracy of multi-object image recognition was improved by 6.70% compared with single vectorization of convolutional neural networks. Therefore, image recognition method of joint convolutional neural networks can enhance the accuracy in image recognition, especially for target in rectangular shape.

  10. Analysis of neural networks in terms of domain functions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van der Zwaag, B.J.; Slump, Cornelis H.; Spaanenburg, Lambert

    Despite their success-story, artificial neural networks have one major disadvantage compared to other techniques: the inability to explain comprehensively how a trained neural network reaches its output; neural networks are not only (incorrectly) seen as a "magic tool" but possibly even more as a

  11. Extracting knowledge from supervised neural networks in image processing

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van der Zwaag, B.J.; Slump, Cornelis H.; Spaanenburg, Lambert; Jain, R.; Abraham, A.; Faucher, C.; van der Zwaag, B.J.

    Despite their success-story, artificial neural networks have one major disadvantage compared to other techniques: the inability to explain comprehensively how a trained neural network reaches its output; neural networks are not only (incorrectly) seen as a “magic tool��? but possibly even more as a

  12. neural network based load frequency control for restructuring power

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    2012-03-01

    Mar 1, 2012 ... Abstract. In this study, an artificial neural network (ANN) application of load frequency control. (LFC) of a Multi-Area power system by using a neural network controller is presented. The comparison between a conventional Proportional Integral (PI) controller and the proposed artificial neural networks ...

  13. Artificial Neural Network Modeling of an Inverse Fluidized Bed ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The application of neural networks to model a laboratory scale inverse fluidized bed reactor has been studied. A Radial Basis Function neural network has been successfully employed for the modeling of the inverse fluidized bed reactor. In the proposed model, the trained neural network represents the kinetics of biological ...

  14. Time series prediction with simple recurrent neural networks ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Simple recurrent neural networks are widely used in time series prediction. Most researchers and application developers often choose arbitrarily between Elman or Jordan simple recurrent neural networks for their applications. A hybrid of the two called Elman-Jordan (or Multi-recurrent) neural network is also being used.

  15. Application of radial basis neural network for state estimation of ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    user

    An original application of radial basis function (RBF) neural network for power system state estimation is proposed in this paper. The property of massive parallelism of neural networks is employed for this. The application of RBF neural network for state estimation is investigated by testing its applicability on a IEEE 14 bus ...

  16. The Artifical Neural Network as means for modeling Nonlinear Systems

    OpenAIRE

    Drábek Oldøich; Taufer Ivan

    1998-01-01

    The paper deals with nonlinear system identification based on neural network. The topic of this publication is simulation of training and testing a neural network. A contribution is assigned to technologists which are good at the clasical identification problems but their knowledges about identification based on neural network are only on the stage of theoretical bases.

  17. The Artifical Neural Network as means for modeling Nonlinear Systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Drábek Oldøich

    1998-12-01

    Full Text Available The paper deals with nonlinear system identification based on neural network. The topic of this publication is simulation of training and testing a neural network. A contribution is assigned to technologists which are good at the clasical identification problems but their knowledges about identification based on neural network are only on the stage of theoretical bases.

  18. Algorithm For A Self-Growing Neural Network

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cios, Krzysztof J.

    1996-01-01

    CID3 algorithm simulates self-growing neural network. Constructs decision trees equivalent to hidden layers of neural network. Based on ID3 algorithm, which dynamically generates decision tree while minimizing entropy of information. CID3 algorithm generates feedforward neural network by use of either crisp or fuzzy measure of entropy.

  19. Application of artificial neural networks with backpropagation technique in the financial data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jaiswal, Jitendra Kumar; Das, Raja

    2017-11-01

    The propensity of applying neural networks has been proliferated in multiple disciplines for research activities since the past recent decades because of its powerful control with regulatory parameters for pattern recognition and classification. It is also being widely applied for forecasting in the numerous divisions. Since financial data have been readily available due to the involvement of computers and computing systems in the stock market premises throughout the world, researchers have also developed numerous techniques and algorithms to analyze the data from this sector. In this paper we have applied neural network with backpropagation technique to find the data pattern from finance section and prediction for stock values as well.

  20. Optical implementation of neural networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, Francis T. S.; Guo, Ruyan

    2002-12-01

    An adaptive optical neuro-computing (ONC) using inexpensive pocket size liquid crystal televisions (LCTVs) had been developed by the graduate students in the Electro-Optics Laboratory at The Pennsylvania State University. Although this neuro-computing has only 8×8=64 neurons, it can be easily extended to 16×20=320 neurons. The major advantages of this LCTV architecture as compared with other reported ONCs, are low cost and the flexibility to operate. To test the performance, several neural net models are used. These models are Interpattern Association, Hetero-association and unsupervised learning algorithms. The system design considerations and experimental demonstrations are also included.

  1. Identifying Jets Using Artifical Neural Networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rosand, Benjamin; Caines, Helen; Checa, Sofia

    2017-09-01

    We investigate particle jet interactions with the Quark Gluon Plasma (QGP) using artificial neural networks modeled on those used in computer image recognition. We create jet images by binning jet particles into pixels and preprocessing every image. We analyzed the jets with a Multi-layered maxout network and a convolutional network. We demonstrate each network's effectiveness in differentiating simulated quenched jets from unquenched jets, and we investigate the method that the network uses to discriminate among different quenched jet simulations. Finally, we develop a greater understanding of the physics behind quenched jets by investigating what the network learnt as well as its effectiveness in differentiating samples. Yale College Freshman Summer Research Fellowship in the Sciences and Engineering.

  2. APPLICATION OF ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORKS FOR PREDICTION OF AIR POLLUTION LEVELS IN ENVIRONMENTAL MONITORING

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Małgorzata Pawul

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available Recently, a lot of attention was paid to the improvement of methods which are used to air quality forecasting. Artificial neural networks can be applied to model these problems. Their advantage is that they can solve the problem in the conditions of incomplete information, without the knowledge of the analytical relationship between the input and output data. In this paper we applied artificial neural networks to predict the PM 10 concentrations as factors determining the occurrence of smog phenomena. To create these networks we used meteorological data and concentrations of PM 10. The data were recorded in 2014 and 2015 at three measuring stations operating in Krakow under the State Environmental Monitoring. The best results were obtained by three-layer perceptron with back-propagation algorithm. The neural networks received a good fit in all cases.

  3. Artificial neural networks as quantum associative memory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hamilton, Kathleen; Schrock, Jonathan; Imam, Neena; Humble, Travis

    We present results related to the recall accuracy and capacity of Hopfield networks implemented on commercially available quantum annealers. The use of Hopfield networks and artificial neural networks as content-addressable memories offer robust storage and retrieval of classical information, however, implementation of these models using currently available quantum annealers faces several challenges: the limits of precision when setting synaptic weights, the effects of spurious spin-glass states and minor embedding of densely connected graphs into fixed-connectivity hardware. We consider neural networks which are less than fully-connected, and also consider neural networks which contain multiple sparsely connected clusters. We discuss the effect of weak edge dilution on the accuracy of memory recall, and discuss how the multiple clique structure affects the storage capacity. Our work focuses on storage of patterns which can be embedded into physical hardware containing n States Department of Defense and used resources of the Computational Research and Development Programs as Oak Ridge National Laboratory under Contract No. DE-AC0500OR22725 with the U. S. Department of Energy.

  4. Hybrid discrete-time neural networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cao, Hongjun; Ibarz, Borja

    2010-11-13

    Hybrid dynamical systems combine evolution equations with state transitions. When the evolution equations are discrete-time (also called map-based), the result is a hybrid discrete-time system. A class of biological neural network models that has recently received some attention falls within this category: map-based neuron models connected by means of fast threshold modulation (FTM). FTM is a connection scheme that aims to mimic the switching dynamics of a neuron subject to synaptic inputs. The dynamic equations of the neuron adopt different forms according to the state (either firing or not firing) and type (excitatory or inhibitory) of their presynaptic neighbours. Therefore, the mathematical model of one such network is a combination of discrete-time evolution equations with transitions between states, constituting a hybrid discrete-time (map-based) neural network. In this paper, we review previous work within the context of these models, exemplifying useful techniques to analyse them. Typical map-based neuron models are low-dimensional and amenable to phase-plane analysis. In bursting models, fast-slow decomposition can be used to reduce dimensionality further, so that the dynamics of a pair of connected neurons can be easily understood. We also discuss a model that includes electrical synapses in addition to chemical synapses with FTM. Furthermore, we describe how master stability functions can predict the stability of synchronized states in these networks. The main results are extended to larger map-based neural networks.

  5. Computationally Efficient Neural Network Intrusion Security Awareness

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Todd Vollmer; Milos Manic

    2009-08-01

    An enhanced version of an algorithm to provide anomaly based intrusion detection alerts for cyber security state awareness is detailed. A unique aspect is the training of an error back-propagation neural network with intrusion detection rule features to provide a recognition basis. Network packet details are subsequently provided to the trained network to produce a classification. This leverages rule knowledge sets to produce classifications for anomaly based systems. Several test cases executed on ICMP protocol revealed a 60% identification rate of true positives. This rate matched the previous work, but 70% less memory was used and the run time was reduced to less than 1 second from 37 seconds.

  6. Matrix representation of a Neural Network

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christensen, Bjørn Klint

    Processing, by David Rummelhart (Rummelhart 1986) for an easy-to-read introduction. What the paper does explain is how a matrix representation of a neural net allows for a very simple implementation. The matrix representation is introduced in (Rummelhart 1986, chapter 9), but only for a two-layer linear...... network and the feedforward algorithm. This paper develops the idea further to three-layer non-linear networks and the backpropagation algorithm. Figure 1 shows the layout of a three-layer network. There are I input nodes, J hidden nodes and K output nodes all indexed from 0. Bias-node for the hidden...

  7. Reconstruction of periodic signals using neural networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    José Danilo Rairán Antolines

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, we reconstruct a periodic signal by using two neural networks. The first network is trained to approximate the period of a signal, and the second network estimates the corresponding coefficients of the signal's Fourier expansion. The reconstruction strategy consists in minimizing the mean-square error via backpro-pagation algorithms over a single neuron with a sine transfer function. Additionally, this paper presents mathematical proof about the quality of the approximation as well as a first modification of the algorithm, which requires less data to reach the same estimation; thus making the algorithm suitable for real-time implementations.

  8. Neural networks: Application to medical imaging

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clarke, Laurence P.

    1994-01-01

    The research mission is the development of computer assisted diagnostic (CAD) methods for improved diagnosis of medical images including digital x-ray sensors and tomographic imaging modalities. The CAD algorithms include advanced methods for adaptive nonlinear filters for image noise suppression, hybrid wavelet methods for feature segmentation and enhancement, and high convergence neural networks for feature detection and VLSI implementation of neural networks for real time analysis. Other missions include (1) implementation of CAD methods on hospital based picture archiving computer systems (PACS) and information networks for central and remote diagnosis and (2) collaboration with defense and medical industry, NASA, and federal laboratories in the area of dual use technology conversion from defense or aerospace to medicine.

  9. Fuzzy logic and neural network technologies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Villarreal, James A.; Lea, Robert N.; Savely, Robert T.

    1992-01-01

    Applications of fuzzy logic technologies in NASA projects are reviewed to examine their advantages in the development of neural networks for aerospace and commercial expert systems and control. Examples of fuzzy-logic applications include a 6-DOF spacecraft controller, collision-avoidance systems, and reinforcement-learning techniques. The commercial applications examined include a fuzzy autofocusing system, an air conditioning system, and an automobile transmission application. The practical use of fuzzy logic is set in the theoretical context of artificial neural systems (ANSs) to give the background for an overview of ANS research programs at NASA. The research and application programs include the Network Execution and Training Simulator and faster training algorithms such as the Difference Optimized Training Scheme. The networks are well suited for pattern-recognition applications such as predicting sunspots, controlling posture maintenance, and conducting adaptive diagnoses.

  10. A Topological Perspective of Neural Network Structure

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sizemore, Ann; Giusti, Chad; Cieslak, Matthew; Grafton, Scott; Bassett, Danielle

    The wiring patterns of white matter tracts between brain regions inform functional capabilities of the neural network. Indeed, densely connected and cyclically arranged cognitive systems may communicate and thus perform distinctly. However, previously employed graph theoretical statistics are local in nature and thus insensitive to such global structure. Here we present an investigation of the structural neural network in eight healthy individuals using persistent homology. An extension of homology to weighted networks, persistent homology records both circuits and cliques (all-to-all connected subgraphs) through a repetitive thresholding process, thus perceiving structural motifs. We report structural features found across patients and discuss brain regions responsible for these patterns, finally considering the implications of such motifs in relation to cognitive function.

  11. Tumor Diagnosis Using Backpropagation Neural Network Method

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ma, Lixing; Looney, Carl; Sukuta, Sydney; Bruch, Reinhard; Afanasyeva, Natalia

    1998-05-01

    For characterization of skin cancer, an artificial neural network (ANN) method has been developed to diagnose normal tissue, benign tumor and melanoma. The pattern recognition is based on a three-layer neural network fuzzy learning system. In this study, the input neuron data set is the Fourier Transform infrared (FT-IR)spectrum obtained by a new Fiberoptic Evanescent Wave Fourier Transform Infrared (FEW-FTIR) spectroscopy method in the range of 1480 to 1850 cm-1. Ten input features are extracted from the absorbency values in this region. A single hidden layer of neural nodes with sigmoids activation functions clusters the feature space into small subclasses and the output nodes are separated in different nonconvex classes to permit nonlinear discrimination of disease states. The output is classified as three classes: normal tissue, benign tumor and melanoma. The results obtained from the neural network pattern recognition are shown to be consistent with traditional medical diagnosis. Input features have also been extracted from the absorbency spectra using chemical factor analysis. These abstract features or factors are also used in the classification.

  12. Phase Diagram of Spiking Neural Networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hamed eSeyed-Allaei

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available In computer simulations of spiking neural networks, often it is assumed that every two neurons of the network are connected by a probablilty of 2%, 20% of neurons are inhibitory and 80% are excitatory. These common values are based on experiments, observations. but here, I take a different perspective, inspired by evolution. I simulate many networks, each with a different set of parameters, and then I try to figure out what makes the common values desirable by nature. Networks which are configured according to the common values, have the best dynamic range in response to an impulse and their dynamic range is more robust in respect to synaptic weights. In fact, evolution has favored networks of best dynamic range. I present a phase diagram that shows the dynamic ranges of different networks of different parameteres. This phase diagram gives an insight into the space of parameters -- excitatory to inhibitory ratio, sparseness of connections and synaptic weights. It may serve as a guideline to decide about the values of parameters in a simulation of spiking neural network.

  13. Fuzzy logic and neural networks basic concepts & application

    CERN Document Server

    Alavala, Chennakesava R

    2008-01-01

    About the Book: The primary purpose of this book is to provide the student with a comprehensive knowledge of basic concepts of fuzzy logic and neural networks. The hybridization of fuzzy logic and neural networks is also included. No previous knowledge of fuzzy logic and neural networks is required. Fuzzy logic and neural networks have been discussed in detail through illustrative examples, methods and generic applications. Extensive and carefully selected references is an invaluable resource for further study of fuzzy logic and neural networks. Each chapter is followed by a question bank

  14. Convolutional neural networks for estimating spatially distributed evapotranspiration

    Science.gov (United States)

    García-Pedrero, Angel M.; Gonzalo-Martín, Consuelo; Lillo-Saavedra, Mario F.; Rodriguéz-Esparragón, Dionisio; Menasalvas, Ernestina

    2017-10-01

    Efficient water management in agriculture requires an accurate estimation of evapotranspiration (ET). There are available several balance energy surface models that provide a daily ET estimation (ETd) spatially and temporarily distributed for different crops over wide areas. These models need infrared thermal spectral band (gathered from remotely sensors) to estimate sensible heat flux from the surface temperature. However, this spectral band is not available for most current operational remote sensors. Even though the good results provided by machine learning (ML) methods in many different areas, few works have applied these approaches for forecasting distributed ETd on space and time when aforementioned information is missing. However, these methods do not exploit the land surface characteristics and the relationships among land covers producing estimation errors. In this work, we have developed and evaluated a methodology that provides spatial distributed estimates of ETd without thermal information by means of Convolutional Neural Networks.

  15. RBF neural network prediction on weak electrical signals in Aloe vera var. chinensis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Lanzhou; Zhao, Jiayin; Wang, Miao

    2008-10-01

    A Gaussian radial base function (RBF) neural network forecast on signals in the Aloe vera var. chinensis by the wavelet soft-threshold denoised as the time series and using the delayed input window chosen at 50, is set up to forecast backward. There was the maximum amplitude at 310.45μV, minimum -75.15μV, average value -2.69μV and Aloe vera var. chinensis respectively. The electrical signal in Aloe vera var. chinensis is a sort of weak, unstable and low frequency signals. A result showed that it is feasible to forecast plant electrical signals for the timing by the RBF. The forecast data can be used as the preferences for the intelligent autocontrol system based on the adaptive characteristic of plants to achieve the energy saving on the agricultural production in the plastic lookum or greenhouse.

  16. Character Recognition Using Genetically Trained Neural Networks

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Diniz, C.; Stantz, K.M.; Trahan, M.W.; Wagner, J.S.

    1998-10-01

    Computationally intelligent recognition of characters and symbols addresses a wide range of applications including foreign language translation and chemical formula identification. The combination of intelligent learning and optimization algorithms with layered neural structures offers powerful techniques for character recognition. These techniques were originally developed by Sandia National Laboratories for pattern and spectral analysis; however, their ability to optimize vast amounts of data make them ideal for character recognition. An adaptation of the Neural Network Designer soflsvare allows the user to create a neural network (NN_) trained by a genetic algorithm (GA) that correctly identifies multiple distinct characters. The initial successfid recognition of standard capital letters can be expanded to include chemical and mathematical symbols and alphabets of foreign languages, especially Arabic and Chinese. The FIN model constructed for this project uses a three layer feed-forward architecture. To facilitate the input of characters and symbols, a graphic user interface (GUI) has been developed to convert the traditional representation of each character or symbol to a bitmap. The 8 x 8 bitmap representations used for these tests are mapped onto the input nodes of the feed-forward neural network (FFNN) in a one-to-one correspondence. The input nodes feed forward into a hidden layer, and the hidden layer feeds into five output nodes correlated to possible character outcomes. During the training period the GA optimizes the weights of the NN until it can successfully recognize distinct characters. Systematic deviations from the base design test the network's range of applicability. Increasing capacity, the number of letters to be recognized, requires a nonlinear increase in the number of hidden layer neurodes. Optimal character recognition performance necessitates a minimum threshold for the number of cases when genetically training the net. And, the

  17. Deep Gate Recurrent Neural Network

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-11-22

    distribution, e.g. a particular book. In this experiment, we use a collection of writings by Nietzsche to train our network. In total, this corpus contains...sentiment analysis. In Proceedings of the 49th Annual Meeting of the Association for Computational Linguistics : Human Language Technologies, pages 142–150...Portland, Oregon, USA, June 2011. Association for Com- putational Linguistics . URL http://www.aclweb.org/anthology/P11-1015. Maja J Matari, Complex

  18. A Projection Neural Network for Constrained Quadratic Minimax Optimization.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Qingshan; Wang, Jun

    2015-11-01

    This paper presents a projection neural network described by a dynamic system for solving constrained quadratic minimax programming problems. Sufficient conditions based on a linear matrix inequality are provided for global convergence of the proposed neural network. Compared with some of the existing neural networks for quadratic minimax optimization, the proposed neural network in this paper is capable of solving more general constrained quadratic minimax optimization problems, and the designed neural network does not include any parameter. Moreover, the neural network has lower model complexities, the number of state variables of which is equal to that of the dimension of the optimization problems. The simulation results on numerical examples are discussed to demonstrate the effectiveness and characteristics of the proposed neural network.

  19. Neural Networks in R Using the Stuttgart Neural Network Simulator: RSNNS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christopher Bergmeir

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Neural networks are important standard machine learning procedures for classification and regression. We describe the R package RSNNS that provides a convenient interface to the popular Stuttgart Neural Network Simulator SNNS. The main features are (a encapsulation of the relevant SNNS parts in a C++ class, for sequential and parallel usage of different networks, (b accessibility of all of the SNNSalgorithmic functionality from R using a low-level interface, and (c a high-level interface for convenient, R-style usage of many standard neural network procedures. The package also includes functions for visualization and analysis of the models and the training procedures, as well as functions for data input/output from/to the original SNNSfile formats.

  20. Evaluating neural networks and artificial intelligence systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alberts, David S.

    1994-02-01

    Systems have no intrinsic value in and of themselves, but rather derive value from the contributions they make to the missions, decisions, and tasks they are intended to support. The estimation of the cost-effectiveness of systems is a prerequisite for rational planning, budgeting, and investment documents. Neural network and expert system applications, although similar in their incorporation of a significant amount of decision-making capability, differ from each other in ways that affect the manner in which they can be evaluated. Both these types of systems are, by definition, evolutionary systems, which also impacts their evaluation. This paper discusses key aspects of neural network and expert system applications and their impact on the evaluation process. A practical approach or methodology for evaluating a certain class of expert systems that are particularly difficult to measure using traditional evaluation approaches is presented.