Pattern Recognition of Momentary Mental Workload Based on Multi-Channel Electrophysiological Data and Ensemble Convolutional Neural Networks.

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Jianhua; Li, Sunan; Wang, Rubin

2017-01-01

In this paper, we deal with the Mental Workload (MWL) classification problem based on the measured physiological data. First we discussed the optimal depth (i.e., the number of hidden layers) and parameter optimization algorithms for the Convolutional Neural Networks (CNN). The base CNNs designed were tested according to five classification performance indices, namely Accuracy, Precision, F-measure, G-mean, and required training time. Then we developed an Ensemble Convolutional Neural Network (ECNN) to enhance the accuracy and robustness of the individual CNN model. For the ECNN design, three model aggregation approaches (weighted averaging, majority voting and stacking) were examined and a resampling strategy was used to enhance the diversity of individual CNN models. The results of MWL classification performance comparison indicated that the proposed ECNN framework can effectively improve MWL classification performance and is featured by entirely automatic feature extraction and MWL classification, when compared with traditional machine learning methods.

An Ensemble of Neural Networks for Online Electron Filtering at the ATLAS Experiment.

CERN Document Server

Da Fonseca Pinto, Joao Victor; The ATLAS collaboration

2018-01-01

In 2017 the ATLAS experiment implemented an ensemble of neural networks (NeuralRinger algorithm) dedicated to improving the performance of filtering events containing electrons in the high-input rate online environment of the Large Hadron Collider at CERN, Geneva. The ensemble employs a concept of calorimetry rings. The training procedure and final structure of the ensemble are used to minimize fluctuations from detector response, according to the particle energy and position of incidence. A detailed study was carried out to assess profile distortions in crucial offline quantities through the usage of statistical tests and residual analysis. These details and the online performance of this algorithm during the 2017 data-taking will be presented.

Modeling of steam generator in nuclear power plant using neural network ensemble

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lee, S. K.; Lee, E. C.; Jang, J. W.

2003-01-01

Neural network is now being used in modeling the steam generator is known to be difficult due to the reverse dynamics. However, Neural network is prone to the problem of overfitting. This paper investigates the use of neural network combining methods to model steam generator water level and compares with single neural network. The results show that neural network ensemble is effective tool which can offer improved generalization, lower dependence of the training set and reduced training time

A Comparison Study on Rule Extraction from Neural Network Ensembles, Boosted Shallow Trees, and SVMs

OpenAIRE

Bologna, Guido; Hayashi, Yoichi

2018-01-01

One way to make the knowledge stored in an artificial neural network more intelligible is to extract symbolic rules. However, producing rules from Multilayer Perceptrons (MLPs) is an NP-hard problem. Many techniques have been introduced to generate rules from single neural networks, but very few were proposed for ensembles. Moreover, experiments were rarely assessed by 10-fold cross-validation trials. In this work, based on the Discretized Interpretable Multilayer Perceptron (DIMLP), experime...

Bayesian model ensembling using meta-trained recurrent neural networks

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Ambrogioni, L.; Berezutskaya, Y.; Gü ç lü , U.; Borne, E.W.P. van den; Gü ç lü tü rk, Y.; Gerven, M.A.J. van; Maris, E.G.G.

2017-01-01

In this paper we demonstrate that a recurrent neural network meta-trained on an ensemble of arbitrary classification tasks can be used as an approximation of the Bayes optimal classifier. This result is obtained by relying on the framework of e-free approximate Bayesian inference, where the Bayesian

An Effective and Novel Neural Network Ensemble for Shift Pattern Detection in Control Charts

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mahmoud Barghash

2015-01-01

Full Text Available Pattern recognition in control charts is critical to make a balance between discovering faults as early as possible and reducing the number of false alarms. This work is devoted to designing a multistage neural network ensemble that achieves this balance which reduces rework and scrape without reducing productivity. The ensemble under focus is composed of a series of neural network stages and a series of decision points. Initially, this work compared using multidecision points and single-decision point on the performance of the ANN which showed that multidecision points are highly preferable to single-decision points. This work also tested the effect of population percentages on the ANN and used this to optimize the ANN’s performance. Also this work used optimized and nonoptimized ANNs in an ensemble and proved that using nonoptimized ANN may reduce the performance of the ensemble. The ensemble that used only optimized ANNs has improved performance over individual ANNs and three-sigma level rule. In that respect using the designed ensemble can help in reducing the number of false stops and increasing productivity. It also can be used to discover even small shifts in the mean as early as possible.

Improving a Deep Learning based RGB-D Object Recognition Model by Ensemble Learning

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Aakerberg, Andreas; Nasrollahi, Kamal; Heder, Thomas

2018-01-01

Augmenting RGB images with depth information is a well-known method to significantly improve the recognition accuracy of object recognition models. Another method to im- prove the performance of visual recognition models is ensemble learning. However, this method has not been widely explored...... in combination with deep convolutional neural network based RGB-D object recognition models. Hence, in this paper, we form different ensembles of complementary deep convolutional neural network models, and show that this can be used to increase the recognition performance beyond existing limits. Experiments...

An artificial neural network ensemble model for estimating global solar radiation from Meteosat satellite images

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Linares-Rodriguez, Alvaro; Ruiz-Arias, José Antonio; Pozo-Vazquez, David; Tovar-Pescador, Joaquin

2013-01-01

An optimized artificial neural network ensemble model is built to estimate daily global solar radiation over large areas. The model uses clear-sky estimates and satellite images as input variables. Unlike most studies using satellite imagery based on visible channels, our model also exploits all information within infrared channels of the Meteosat 9 satellite. A genetic algorithm is used to optimize selection of model inputs, for which twelve are selected – eleven 3-km Meteosat 9 channels and one clear-sky term. The model is validated in Andalusia (Spain) from January 2008 through December 2008. Measured data from 83 stations across the region are used, 65 for training and 18 independent ones for testing the model. At the latter stations, the ensemble model yields an overall root mean square error of 6.74% and correlation coefficient of 99%; the generated estimates are relatively accurate and errors spatially uniform. The model yields reliable results even on cloudy days, improving on current models based on satellite imagery. - Highlights: • Daily solar radiation data are generated using an artificial neural network ensemble. • Eleven Meteosat channels observations and a clear sky term are used as model inputs. • Model exploits all information within infrared Meteosat channels. • Measured data for a year from 83 ground stations are used. • The proposed approach has better performance than existing models on daily basis

Backpropagation Neural Ensemble for Localizing and Recognizing Non-Standardized Malaysia’s Car Plates

OpenAIRE

Chin Kim On; Teo Kein Yau; Rayner Alfred; Jason Teo; Patricia Anthony; Wang Cheng

2016-01-01

In this paper, we describe a research project that autonomously localizes and recognizes non-standardized Malaysian’s car plates using conventional Backpropagation algorithm (BPP) in combination with Ensemble Neural Network (ENN). We compared the results with the results obtained using simple Feed-Forward Neural Network (FFNN). This research aims to solve four main issues; (1) localization of car plates that has the same colour with the vehicle colour, (2) detection and recognition of car pla...

Stress affects the neural ensemble for integrating new information and prior knowledge.

Science.gov (United States)

Vogel, Susanne; Kluen, Lisa Marieke; Fernández, Guillén; Schwabe, Lars

2018-06-01

Prior knowledge, represented as a schema, facilitates memory encoding. This schema-related learning is assumed to rely on the medial prefrontal cortex (mPFC) that rapidly integrates new information into the schema, whereas schema-incongruent or novel information is encoded by the hippocampus. Stress is a powerful modulator of prefrontal and hippocampal functioning and first studies suggest a stress-induced deficit of schema-related learning. However, the underlying neural mechanism is currently unknown. To investigate the neural basis of a stress-induced schema-related learning impairment, participants first acquired a schema. One day later, they underwent a stress induction or a control procedure before learning schema-related and novel information in the MRI scanner. In line with previous studies, learning schema-related compared to novel information activated the mPFC, angular gyrus, and precuneus. Stress, however, affected the neural ensemble activated during learning. Whereas the control group distinguished between sets of brain regions for related and novel information, stressed individuals engaged the hippocampus even when a relevant schema was present. Additionally, stressed participants displayed aberrant functional connectivity between brain regions involved in schema processing when encoding novel information. The failure to segregate functional connectivity patterns depending on the presence of prior knowledge was linked to impaired performance after stress. Our results show that stress affects the neural ensemble underlying the efficient use of schemas during learning. These findings may have relevant implications for clinical and educational settings. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Prediction of drug synergy in cancer using ensemble-based machine learning techniques

Science.gov (United States)

Singh, Harpreet; Rana, Prashant Singh; Singh, Urvinder

2018-04-01

Drug synergy prediction plays a significant role in the medical field for inhibiting specific cancer agents. It can be developed as a pre-processing tool for therapeutic successes. Examination of different drug-drug interaction can be done by drug synergy score. It needs efficient regression-based machine learning approaches to minimize the prediction errors. Numerous machine learning techniques such as neural networks, support vector machines, random forests, LASSO, Elastic Nets, etc., have been used in the past to realize requirement as mentioned above. However, these techniques individually do not provide significant accuracy in drug synergy score. Therefore, the primary objective of this paper is to design a neuro-fuzzy-based ensembling approach. To achieve this, nine well-known machine learning techniques have been implemented by considering the drug synergy data. Based on the accuracy of each model, four techniques with high accuracy are selected to develop ensemble-based machine learning model. These models are Random forest, Fuzzy Rules Using Genetic Cooperative-Competitive Learning method (GFS.GCCL), Adaptive-Network-Based Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) and Dynamic Evolving Neural-Fuzzy Inference System method (DENFIS). Ensembling is achieved by evaluating the biased weighted aggregation (i.e. adding more weights to the model with a higher prediction score) of predicted data by selected models. The proposed and existing machine learning techniques have been evaluated on drug synergy score data. The comparative analysis reveals that the proposed method outperforms others in terms of accuracy, root mean square error and coefficient of correlation.

Various multistage ensembles for prediction of heating energy consumption

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Radisa Jovanovic

2015-04-01

Full Text Available Feedforward neural network models are created for prediction of daily heating energy consumption of a NTNU university campus Gloshaugen using actual measured data for training and testing. Improvement of prediction accuracy is proposed by using neural network ensemble. Previously trained feed-forward neural networks are first separated into clusters, using k-means algorithm, and then the best network of each cluster is chosen as member of an ensemble. Two conventional averaging methods for obtaining ensemble output are applied; simple and weighted. In order to achieve better prediction results, multistage ensemble is investigated. As second level, adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system with various clustering and membership functions are used to aggregate the selected ensemble members. Feedforward neural network in second stage is also analyzed. It is shown that using ensemble of neural networks can predict heating energy consumption with better accuracy than the best trained single neural network, while the best results are achieved with multistage ensemble.

Stochastic resonance in an ensemble of single-electron neuromorphic devices and its application to competitive neural networks

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Oya, Takahide; Asai, Tetsuya; Amemiya, Yoshihito

2007-01-01

Neuromorphic computing based on single-electron circuit technology is gaining prominence because of its massively increased computational efficiency and the increasing relevance of computer technology and nanotechnology [Likharev K, Mayr A, Muckra I, Tuerel O. CrossNets: High-performance neuromorphic architectures for CMOL circuits. Molec Electron III: Ann NY Acad Sci 1006;2003:146-63; Oya T, Schmid A, Asai T, Leblebici Y, Amemiya Y. On the fault tolerance of a clustered single-electron neural network for differential enhancement. IEICE Electron Expr 2;2005:76-80]. The maximum impact of these technologies will be strongly felt when single-electron circuits based on fault- and noise-tolerant neural structures can operate at room temperature. In this paper, inspired by stochastic resonance (SR) in an ensemble of spiking neurons [Collins JJ, Chow CC, Imhoff TT. Stochastic resonance without tuning. Nature 1995;376:236-8], we propose our design of a basic single-electron neural component and report how we examined its statistical results on a network

Multi-model ensemble hydrological simulation using a BP Neural Network for the upper Yalongjiang River Basin, China

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Zhanjie; Yu, Jingshan; Xu, Xinyi; Sun, Wenchao; Pang, Bo; Yue, Jiajia

2018-06-01

Hydrological models are important and effective tools for detecting complex hydrological processes. Different models have different strengths when capturing the various aspects of hydrological processes. Relying on a single model usually leads to simulation uncertainties. Ensemble approaches, based on multi-model hydrological simulations, can improve application performance over single models. In this study, the upper Yalongjiang River Basin was selected for a case study. Three commonly used hydrological models (SWAT, VIC, and BTOPMC) were selected and used for independent simulations with the same input and initial values. Then, the BP neural network method was employed to combine the results from the three models. The results show that the accuracy of BP ensemble simulation is better than that of the single models.

Ensemble Nonlinear Autoregressive Exogenous Artificial Neural Networks for Short-Term Wind Speed and Power Forecasting.

Science.gov (United States)

Men, Zhongxian; Yee, Eugene; Lien, Fue-Sang; Yang, Zhiling; Liu, Yongqian

2014-01-01

Short-term wind speed and wind power forecasts (for a 72 h period) are obtained using a nonlinear autoregressive exogenous artificial neural network (ANN) methodology which incorporates either numerical weather prediction or high-resolution computational fluid dynamics wind field information as an exogenous input. An ensemble approach is used to combine the predictions from many candidate ANNs in order to provide improved forecasts for wind speed and power, along with the associated uncertainties in these forecasts. More specifically, the ensemble ANN is used to quantify the uncertainties arising from the network weight initialization and from the unknown structure of the ANN. All members forming the ensemble of neural networks were trained using an efficient particle swarm optimization algorithm. The results of the proposed methodology are validated using wind speed and wind power data obtained from an operational wind farm located in Northern China. The assessment demonstrates that this methodology for wind speed and power forecasting generally provides an improvement in predictive skills when compared to the practice of using an "optimal" weight vector from a single ANN while providing additional information in the form of prediction uncertainty bounds.

Neural network ensemble based CAD system for focal liver lesions from B-mode ultrasound.

Science.gov (United States)

Virmani, Jitendra; Kumar, Vinod; Kalra, Naveen; Khandelwal, Niranjan

2014-08-01

A neural network ensemble (NNE) based computer-aided diagnostic (CAD) system to assist radiologists in differential diagnosis between focal liver lesions (FLLs), including (1) typical and atypical cases of Cyst, hemangioma (HEM) and metastatic carcinoma (MET) lesions, (2) small and large hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) lesions, along with (3) normal (NOR) liver tissue is proposed in the present work. Expert radiologists, visualize the textural characteristics of regions inside and outside the lesions to differentiate between different FLLs, accordingly texture features computed from inside lesion regions of interest (IROIs) and texture ratio features computed from IROIs and surrounding lesion regions of interests (SROIs) are taken as input. Principal component analysis (PCA) is used for reducing the dimensionality of the feature space before classifier design. The first step of classification module consists of a five class PCA-NN based primary classifier which yields probability outputs for five liver image classes. The second step of classification module consists of ten binary PCA-NN based secondary classifiers for NOR/Cyst, NOR/HEM, NOR/HCC, NOR/MET, Cyst/HEM, Cyst/HCC, Cyst/MET, HEM/HCC, HEM/MET and HCC/MET classes. The probability outputs of five class PCA-NN based primary classifier is used to determine the first two most probable classes for a test instance, based on which it is directed to the corresponding binary PCA-NN based secondary classifier for crisp classification between two classes. By including the second step of the classification module, classification accuracy increases from 88.7 % to 95 %. The promising results obtained by the proposed system indicate its usefulness to assist radiologists in differential diagnosis of FLLs.

Neural Network Ensemble Based Approach for 2D-Interval Prediction of Solar Photovoltaic Power

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mashud Rana

2016-10-01

Full Text Available Solar energy generated from PhotoVoltaic (PV systems is one of the most promising types of renewable energy. However, it is highly variable as it depends on the solar irradiance and other meteorological factors. This variability creates difficulties for the large-scale integration of PV power in the electricity grid and requires accurate forecasting of the electricity generated by PV systems. In this paper we consider 2D-interval forecasts, where the goal is to predict summary statistics for the distribution of the PV power values in a future time interval. 2D-interval forecasts have been recently introduced, and they are more suitable than point forecasts for applications where the predicted variable has a high variability. We propose a method called NNE2D that combines variable selection based on mutual information and an ensemble of neural networks, to compute 2D-interval forecasts, where the two interval boundaries are expressed in terms of percentiles. NNE2D was evaluated for univariate prediction of Australian solar PV power data for two years. The results show that it is a promising method, outperforming persistence baselines and other methods used for comparison in terms of accuracy and coverage probability.

A Comparison Study on Rule Extraction from Neural Network Ensembles, Boosted Shallow Trees, and SVMs

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Guido Bologna

2018-01-01

Full Text Available One way to make the knowledge stored in an artificial neural network more intelligible is to extract symbolic rules. However, producing rules from Multilayer Perceptrons (MLPs is an NP-hard problem. Many techniques have been introduced to generate rules from single neural networks, but very few were proposed for ensembles. Moreover, experiments were rarely assessed by 10-fold cross-validation trials. In this work, based on the Discretized Interpretable Multilayer Perceptron (DIMLP, experiments were performed on 10 repetitions of stratified 10-fold cross-validation trials over 25 binary classification problems. The DIMLP architecture allowed us to produce rules from DIMLP ensembles, boosted shallow trees (BSTs, and Support Vector Machines (SVM. The complexity of rulesets was measured with the average number of generated rules and average number of antecedents per rule. From the 25 used classification problems, the most complex rulesets were generated from BSTs trained by “gentle boosting” and “real boosting.” Moreover, we clearly observed that the less complex the rules were, the better their fidelity was. In fact, rules generated from decision stumps trained by modest boosting were, for almost all the 25 datasets, the simplest with the highest fidelity. Finally, in terms of average predictive accuracy and average ruleset complexity, the comparison of some of our results to those reported in the literature proved to be competitive.

Application of Entropy Ensemble Filter in Neural Network Forecasts of Tropical Pacific Sea Surface Temperatures

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Hossein Foroozand

2018-03-01

Full Text Available Recently, the Entropy Ensemble Filter (EEF method was proposed to mitigate the computational cost of the Bootstrap AGGregatING (bagging method. This method uses the most informative training data sets in the model ensemble rather than all ensemble members created by the conventional bagging. In this study, we evaluate, for the first time, the application of the EEF method in Neural Network (NN modeling of El Nino-southern oscillation. Specifically, we forecast the first five principal components (PCs of sea surface temperature monthly anomaly fields over tropical Pacific, at different lead times (from 3 to 15 months, with a three-month increment for the period 1979–2017. We apply the EEF method in a multiple-linear regression (MLR model and two NN models, one using Bayesian regularization and one Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm for training, and evaluate their performance and computational efficiency relative to the same models with conventional bagging. All models perform equally well at the lead time of 3 and 6 months, while at higher lead times, the MLR model’s skill deteriorates faster than the nonlinear models. The neural network models with both bagging methods produce equally successful forecasts with the same computational efficiency. It remains to be shown whether this finding is sensitive to the dataset size.

A Prediction Method of Airport Noise Based on Hybrid Ensemble Learning

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Tao XU

2014-05-01

Full Text Available Using monitoring history data to build and to train a prediction model for airport noise is a normal method in recent years. However, the single model built in different ways has various performances in the storage, efficiency and accuracy. In order to predict the noise accurately in some complex environment around airport, this paper presents a prediction method based on hybrid ensemble learning. The proposed method ensembles three algorithms: artificial neural network as an active learner, nearest neighbor as a passive leaner and nonlinear regression as a synthesized learner. The experimental results show that the three learners can meet forecast demands respectively in on- line, near-line and off-line. And the accuracy of prediction is improved by integrating these three learners’ results.

An Ensemble Deep Convolutional Neural Network Model with Improved D-S Evidence Fusion for Bearing Fault Diagnosis.

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Shaobo; Liu, Guokai; Tang, Xianghong; Lu, Jianguang; Hu, Jianjun

2017-07-28

Intelligent machine health monitoring and fault diagnosis are becoming increasingly important for modern manufacturing industries. Current fault diagnosis approaches mostly depend on expert-designed features for building prediction models. In this paper, we proposed IDSCNN, a novel bearing fault diagnosis algorithm based on ensemble deep convolutional neural networks and an improved Dempster-Shafer theory based evidence fusion. The convolutional neural networks take the root mean square (RMS) maps from the FFT (Fast Fourier Transformation) features of the vibration signals from two sensors as inputs. The improved D-S evidence theory is implemented via distance matrix from evidences and modified Gini Index. Extensive evaluations of the IDSCNN on the Case Western Reserve Dataset showed that our IDSCNN algorithm can achieve better fault diagnosis performance than existing machine learning methods by fusing complementary or conflicting evidences from different models and sensors and adapting to different load conditions.

Comparison of standard resampling methods for performance estimation of artificial neural network ensembles

OpenAIRE

Green, Michael; Ohlsson, Mattias

2007-01-01

Estimation of the generalization performance for classification within the medical applications domain is always an important task. In this study we focus on artificial neural network ensembles as the machine learning technique. We present a numerical comparison between five common resampling techniques: k-fold cross validation (CV), holdout, using three cutoffs, and bootstrap using five different data sets. The results show that CV together with holdout $0.25$ and $0.50$ are the best resampl...

Ensemble ANNs-PSO-GA Approach for Day-ahead Stock E-exchange Prices Forecasting

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yi Xiao

2013-02-01

Full Text Available Stock e-exchange prices forecasting is an important financial problem that is receiving increasing attention. This study proposes a novel three-stage nonlinear ensemble model. In the proposed model, three different types of neural-network based models, i.e. Elman network, generalized regression neural network (GRNN and wavelet neural network (WNN are constructed by three non-overlapping training sets and are further optimized by improved particle swarm optimization (IPSO. Finally, a neural-network-based nonlinear meta-model is generated by learning three neural-network based models through support vector machines (SVM neural network. The superiority of the proposed approach lies in its flexibility to account for potentially complex nonlinear relationships. Three daily stock indices time series are used for validating the forecasting model. Empirical results suggest the ensemble ANNs-PSO-GA approach can significantly improve the prediction performance over other individual models and linear combination models listed in this study.

Ensemble Sampling

OpenAIRE

Lu, Xiuyuan; Van Roy, Benjamin

2017-01-01

Thompson sampling has emerged as an effective heuristic for a broad range of online decision problems. In its basic form, the algorithm requires computing and sampling from a posterior distribution over models, which is tractable only for simple special cases. This paper develops ensemble sampling, which aims to approximate Thompson sampling while maintaining tractability even in the face of complex models such as neural networks. Ensemble sampling dramatically expands on the range of applica...

Sequential ensemble-based optimal design for parameter estimation: SEQUENTIAL ENSEMBLE-BASED OPTIMAL DESIGN

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Man, Jun [Zhejiang Provincial Key Laboratory of Agricultural Resources and Environment, Institute of Soil and Water Resources and Environmental Science, College of Environmental and Resource Sciences, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou China; Zhang, Jiangjiang [Zhejiang Provincial Key Laboratory of Agricultural Resources and Environment, Institute of Soil and Water Resources and Environmental Science, College of Environmental and Resource Sciences, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou China; Li, Weixuan [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland Washington USA; Zeng, Lingzao [Zhejiang Provincial Key Laboratory of Agricultural Resources and Environment, Institute of Soil and Water Resources and Environmental Science, College of Environmental and Resource Sciences, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou China; Wu, Laosheng [Department of Environmental Sciences, University of California, Riverside California USA

2016-10-01

The ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) has been widely used in parameter estimation for hydrological models. The focus of most previous studies was to develop more efficient analysis (estimation) algorithms. On the other hand, it is intuitively understandable that a well-designed sampling (data-collection) strategy should provide more informative measurements and subsequently improve the parameter estimation. In this work, a Sequential Ensemble-based Optimal Design (SEOD) method, coupled with EnKF, information theory and sequential optimal design, is proposed to improve the performance of parameter estimation. Based on the first-order and second-order statistics, different information metrics including the Shannon entropy difference (SD), degrees of freedom for signal (DFS) and relative entropy (RE) are used to design the optimal sampling strategy, respectively. The effectiveness of the proposed method is illustrated by synthetic one-dimensional and two-dimensional unsaturated flow case studies. It is shown that the designed sampling strategies can provide more accurate parameter estimation and state prediction compared with conventional sampling strategies. Optimal sampling designs based on various information metrics perform similarly in our cases. The effect of ensemble size on the optimal design is also investigated. Overall, larger ensemble size improves the parameter estimation and convergence of optimal sampling strategy. Although the proposed method is applied to unsaturated flow problems in this study, it can be equally applied in any other hydrological problems.

Ensemble-based Kalman Filters in Strongly Nonlinear Dynamics

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

Zhaoxia PU; Joshua HACKER

2009-01-01

This study examines the effectiveness of ensemble Kalman filters in data assimilation with the strongly nonlinear dynamics of the Lorenz-63 model, and in particular their use in predicting the regime transition that occurs when the model jumps from one basin of attraction to the other. Four configurations of the ensemble-based Kalman filtering data assimilation techniques, including the ensemble Kalman filter, ensemble adjustment Kalman filter, ensemble square root filter and ensemble transform Kalman filter, are evaluated with their ability in predicting the regime transition (also called phase transition) and also are compared in terms of their sensitivity to both observational and sampling errors. The sensitivity of each ensemble-based filter to the size of the ensemble is also examined.

Dynamic neuronal ensembles: Issues in representing structure change in object-oriented, biologically-based brain models

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Vahie, S.; Zeigler, B.P.; Cho, H. [Univ. of Arizona, Tucson, AZ (United States)

1996-12-31

This paper describes the structure of dynamic neuronal ensembles (DNEs). DNEs represent a new paradigm for learning, based on biological neural networks that use variable structures. We present a computational neural element that demonstrates biological neuron functionality such as neurotransmitter feedback absolute refractory period and multiple output potentials. More specifically, we will develop a network of neural elements that have the ability to dynamically strengthen, weaken, add and remove interconnections. We demonstrate that the DNE is capable of performing dynamic modifications to neuron connections and exhibiting biological neuron functionality. In addition to its applications for learning, DNEs provide an excellent environment for testing and analysis of biological neural systems. An example of habituation and hyper-sensitization in biological systems, using a neural circuit from a snail is presented and discussed. This paper provides an insight into the DNE paradigm using models developed and simulated in DEVS.

A Cutting Pattern Recognition Method for Shearers Based on Improved Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition and a Probabilistic Neural Network

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jing Xu

2015-10-01

Full Text Available In order to guarantee the stable operation of shearers and promote construction of an automatic coal mining working face, an online cutting pattern recognition method with high accuracy and speed based on Improved Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition (IEEMD and Probabilistic Neural Network (PNN is proposed. An industrial microphone is installed on the shearer and the cutting sound is collected as the recognition criterion to overcome the disadvantages of giant size, contact measurement and low identification rate of traditional detectors. To avoid end-point effects and get rid of undesirable intrinsic mode function (IMF components in the initial signal, IEEMD is conducted on the sound. The end-point continuation based on the practical storage data is performed first to overcome the end-point effect. Next the average correlation coefficient, which is calculated by the correlation of the first IMF with others, is introduced to select essential IMFs. Then the energy and standard deviation of the reminder IMFs are extracted as features and PNN is applied to classify the cutting patterns. Finally, a simulation example, with an accuracy of 92.67%, and an industrial application prove the efficiency and correctness of the proposed method.

Genetic Algorithm Optimized Neural Networks Ensemble as ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Marquardt algorithm by varying conditions such as inputs, hidden neurons, initialization, training sets and random Gaussian noise injection to ... Several such ensembles formed the population which was evolved to generate the fittest ensemble.

MSEBAG: a dynamic classifier ensemble generation based on `minimum-sufficient ensemble' and bagging

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, Lei; Kamel, Mohamed S.

2016-01-01

In this paper, we propose a dynamic classifier system, MSEBAG, which is characterised by searching for the 'minimum-sufficient ensemble' and bagging at the ensemble level. It adopts an 'over-generation and selection' strategy and aims to achieve a good bias-variance trade-off. In the training phase, MSEBAG first searches for the 'minimum-sufficient ensemble', which maximises the in-sample fitness with the minimal number of base classifiers. Then, starting from the 'minimum-sufficient ensemble', a backward stepwise algorithm is employed to generate a collection of ensembles. The objective is to create a collection of ensembles with a descending fitness on the data, as well as a descending complexity in the structure. MSEBAG dynamically selects the ensembles from the collection for the decision aggregation. The extended adaptive aggregation (EAA) approach, a bagging-style algorithm performed at the ensemble level, is employed for this task. EAA searches for the competent ensembles using a score function, which takes into consideration both the in-sample fitness and the confidence of the statistical inference, and averages the decisions of the selected ensembles to label the test pattern. The experimental results show that the proposed MSEBAG outperforms the benchmarks on average.

Ensemble Deep Learning for Biomedical Time Series Classification

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Lin-peng Jin

2016-01-01

Full Text Available Ensemble learning has been proved to improve the generalization ability effectively in both theory and practice. In this paper, we briefly outline the current status of research on it first. Then, a new deep neural network-based ensemble method that integrates filtering views, local views, distorted views, explicit training, implicit training, subview prediction, and Simple Average is proposed for biomedical time series classification. Finally, we validate its effectiveness on the Chinese Cardiovascular Disease Database containing a large number of electrocardiogram recordings. The experimental results show that the proposed method has certain advantages compared to some well-known ensemble methods, such as Bagging and AdaBoost.

An artificial neural network ensemble method for fault diagnosis of proton exchange membrane fuel cell system

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Shao, Meng; Zhu, Xin-Jian; Cao, Hong-Fei; Shen, Hai-Feng

2014-01-01

The commercial viability of PEMFC (proton exchange membrane fuel cell) systems depends on using effective fault diagnosis technologies in PEMFC systems. However, many researchers have experimentally studied PEMFC (proton exchange membrane fuel cell) systems without considering certain fault conditions. In this paper, an ANN (artificial neural network) ensemble method is presented that improves the stability and reliability of the PEMFC systems. In the first part, a transient model giving it flexibility in application to some exceptional conditions is built. The PEMFC dynamic model is built and simulated using MATLAB. In the second, using this model and experiments, the mechanisms of four different faults in PEMFC systems are analyzed in detail. Third, the ANN ensemble for the fault diagnosis is built and modeled. This model is trained and tested by the data. The test result shows that, compared with the previous method for fault diagnosis of PEMFC systems, the proposed fault diagnosis method has higher diagnostic rate and generalization ability. Moreover, the partial structure of this method can be altered easily, along with the change of the PEMFC systems. In general, this method for diagnosis of PEMFC has value for certain applications. - Highlights: • We analyze the principles and mechanisms of the four faults in PEMFC (proton exchange membrane fuel cell) system. • We design and model an ANN (artificial neural network) ensemble method for the fault diagnosis of PEMFC system. • This method has high diagnostic rate and strong generalization ability

Modeling task-specific neuronal ensembles improves decoding of grasp

Science.gov (United States)

Smith, Ryan J.; Soares, Alcimar B.; Rouse, Adam G.; Schieber, Marc H.; Thakor, Nitish V.

2018-06-01

Objective. Dexterous movement involves the activation and coordination of networks of neuronal populations across multiple cortical regions. Attempts to model firing of individual neurons commonly treat the firing rate as directly modulating with motor behavior. However, motor behavior may additionally be associated with modulations in the activity and functional connectivity of neurons in a broader ensemble. Accounting for variations in neural ensemble connectivity may provide additional information about the behavior being performed. Approach. In this study, we examined neural ensemble activity in primary motor cortex (M1) and premotor cortex (PM) of two male rhesus monkeys during performance of a center-out reach, grasp and manipulate task. We constructed point process encoding models of neuronal firing that incorporated task-specific variations in the baseline firing rate as well as variations in functional connectivity with the neural ensemble. Models were evaluated both in terms of their encoding capabilities and their ability to properly classify the grasp being performed. Main results. Task-specific ensemble models correctly predicted the performed grasp with over 95% accuracy and were shown to outperform models of neuronal activity that assume only a variable baseline firing rate. Task-specific ensemble models exhibited superior decoding performance in 82% of units in both monkeys (p  <  0.01). Inclusion of ensemble activity also broadly improved the ability of models to describe observed spiking. Encoding performance of task-specific ensemble models, measured by spike timing predictability, improved upon baseline models in 62% of units. Significance. These results suggest that additional discriminative information about motor behavior found in the variations in functional connectivity of neuronal ensembles located in motor-related cortical regions is relevant to decode complex tasks such as grasping objects, and may serve the basis for more

Finding diversity for building one-day ahead Hydrological Ensemble Prediction System based on artificial neural network stacks

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Brochero, Darwin; Anctil, Francois; Gagné, Christian; López, Karol

2013-04-01

In this study, we addressed the application of Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) in the context of Hydrological Ensemble Prediction Systems (HEPS). Such systems have become popular in the past years as a tool to include the forecast uncertainty in the decision making process. HEPS considers fundamentally the uncertainty cascade model [4] for uncertainty representation. Analogously, the machine learning community has proposed models of multiple classifier systems that take into account the variability in datasets, input space, model structures, and parametric configuration [3]. This approach is based primarily on the well-known "no free lunch theorem" [1]. Consequently, we propose a framework based on two separate but complementary topics: data stratification and input variable selection (IVS). Thus, we promote an ANN prediction stack in which each predictor is trained based on input spaces defined by the IVS application on different stratified sub-samples. All this, added to the inherent variability of classical ANN optimization, leads us to our ultimate goal: diversity in the prediction, defined as the complementarity of the individual predictors. The stratification application on the 12 basins used in this study, which originate from the second and third workshop of the MOPEX project [2], shows that the informativeness of the data is far more important than the quantity used for ANN training. Additionally, the input space variability leads to ANN stacks that outperform an ANN stack model trained with 100% of the available information but with a random selection of dataset used in the early stopping method (scenario R100P). The results show that from a deterministic view, the main advantage focuses on the efficient selection of the training information, which is an equally important concept for the calibration of conceptual hydrological models. On the other hand, the diversity achieved is reflected in a substantial improvement in the scores that define the

Ensemble-Based Data Assimilation in Reservoir Characterization: A Review

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Seungpil Jung

2018-02-01

Full Text Available This paper presents a review of ensemble-based data assimilation for strongly nonlinear problems on the characterization of heterogeneous reservoirs with different production histories. It concentrates on ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF and ensemble smoother (ES as representative frameworks, discusses their pros and cons, and investigates recent progress to overcome their drawbacks. The typical weaknesses of ensemble-based methods are non-Gaussian parameters, improper prior ensembles and finite population size. Three categorized approaches, to mitigate these limitations, are reviewed with recent accomplishments; improvement of Kalman gains, add-on of transformation functions, and independent evaluation of observed data. The data assimilation in heterogeneous reservoirs, applying the improved ensemble methods, is discussed on predicting unknown dynamic data in reservoir characterization.

Ensemble of Neural Network Conditional Random Fields for Self-Paced Brain Computer Interfaces

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Hossein Bashashati

2017-07-01

Full Text Available Classification of EEG signals in self-paced Brain Computer Interfaces (BCI is an extremely challenging task. The main difficulty stems from the fact that start time of a control task is not defined. Therefore it is imperative to exploit the characteristics of the EEG data to the extent possible. In sensory motor self-paced BCIs, while performing the mental task, the user’s brain goes through several well-defined internal state changes. Applying appropriate classifiers that can capture these state changes and exploit the temporal correlation in EEG data can enhance the performance of the BCI. In this paper, we propose an ensemble learning approach for self-paced BCIs. We use Bayesian optimization to train several different classifiers on different parts of the BCI hyper- parameter space. We call each of these classifiers Neural Network Conditional Random Field (NNCRF. NNCRF is a combination of a neural network and conditional random field (CRF. As in the standard CRF, NNCRF is able to model the correlation between adjacent EEG samples. However, NNCRF can also model the nonlinear dependencies between the input and the output, which makes it more powerful than the standard CRF. We compare the performance of our algorithm to those of three popular sequence labeling algorithms (Hidden Markov Models, Hidden Markov Support Vector Machines and CRF, and to two classical classifiers (Logistic Regression and Support Vector Machines. The classifiers are compared for the two cases: when the ensemble learning approach is not used and when it is. The data used in our studies are those from the BCI competition IV and the SM2 dataset. We show that our algorithm is considerably superior to the other approaches in terms of the Area Under the Curve (AUC of the BCI system.

Ensemble methods for handwritten digit recognition

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hansen, Lars Kai; Liisberg, Christian; Salamon, P.

1992-01-01

Neural network ensembles are applied to handwritten digit recognition. The individual networks of the ensemble are combinations of sparse look-up tables (LUTs) with random receptive fields. It is shown that the consensus of a group of networks outperforms the best individual of the ensemble....... It is further shown that it is possible to estimate the ensemble performance as well as the learning curve on a medium-size database. In addition the authors present preliminary analysis of experiments on a large database and show that state-of-the-art performance can be obtained using the ensemble approach...... by optimizing the receptive fields. It is concluded that it is possible to improve performance significantly by introducing moderate-size ensembles; in particular, a 20-25% improvement has been found. The ensemble random LUTs, when trained on a medium-size database, reach a performance (without rejects) of 94...

A Novel Multiscale Ensemble Carbon Price Prediction Model Integrating Empirical Mode Decomposition, Genetic Algorithm and Artificial Neural Network

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Bangzhu Zhu

2012-02-01

Full Text Available Due to the movement and complexity of the carbon market, traditional monoscale forecasting approaches often fail to capture its nonstationary and nonlinear properties and accurately describe its moving tendencies. In this study, a multiscale ensemble forecasting model integrating empirical mode decomposition (EMD, genetic algorithm (GA and artificial neural network (ANN is proposed to forecast carbon price. Firstly, the proposed model uses EMD to decompose carbon price data into several intrinsic mode functions (IMFs and one residue. Then, the IMFs and residue are composed into a high frequency component, a low frequency component and a trend component which have similar frequency characteristics, simple components and strong regularity using the fine-to-coarse reconstruction algorithm. Finally, those three components are predicted using an ANN trained by GA, i.e., a GAANN model, and the final forecasting results can be obtained by the sum of these three forecasting results. For verification and testing, two main carbon future prices with different maturity in the European Climate Exchange (ECX are used to test the effectiveness of the proposed multiscale ensemble forecasting model. Empirical results obtained demonstrate that the proposed multiscale ensemble forecasting model can outperform the single random walk (RW, ARIMA, ANN and GAANN models without EMD preprocessing and the ensemble ARIMA model with EMD preprocessing.

The Use of Artificial-Intelligence-Based Ensembles for Intrusion Detection: A Review

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Gulshan Kumar

2012-01-01

Full Text Available In supervised learning-based classification, ensembles have been successfully employed to different application domains. In the literature, many researchers have proposed different ensembles by considering different combination methods, training datasets, base classifiers, and many other factors. Artificial-intelligence-(AI- based techniques play prominent role in development of ensemble for intrusion detection (ID and have many benefits over other techniques. However, there is no comprehensive review of ensembles in general and AI-based ensembles for ID to examine and understand their current research status to solve the ID problem. Here, an updated review of ensembles and their taxonomies has been presented in general. The paper also presents the updated review of various AI-based ensembles for ID (in particular during last decade. The related studies of AI-based ensembles are compared by set of evaluation metrics driven from (1 architecture & approach followed; (2 different methods utilized in different phases of ensemble learning; (3 other measures used to evaluate classification performance of the ensembles. The paper also provides the future directions of the research in this area. The paper will help the better understanding of different directions in which research of ensembles has been done in general and specifically: field of intrusion detection systems (IDSs.

Modeling Dynamic Systems with Efficient Ensembles of Process-Based Models.

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Nikola Simidjievski

Full Text Available Ensembles are a well established machine learning paradigm, leading to accurate and robust models, predominantly applied to predictive modeling tasks. Ensemble models comprise a finite set of diverse predictive models whose combined output is expected to yield an improved predictive performance as compared to an individual model. In this paper, we propose a new method for learning ensembles of process-based models of dynamic systems. The process-based modeling paradigm employs domain-specific knowledge to automatically learn models of dynamic systems from time-series observational data. Previous work has shown that ensembles based on sampling observational data (i.e., bagging and boosting, significantly improve predictive performance of process-based models. However, this improvement comes at the cost of a substantial increase of the computational time needed for learning. To address this problem, the paper proposes a method that aims at efficiently learning ensembles of process-based models, while maintaining their accurate long-term predictive performance. This is achieved by constructing ensembles with sampling domain-specific knowledge instead of sampling data. We apply the proposed method to and evaluate its performance on a set of problems of automated predictive modeling in three lake ecosystems using a library of process-based knowledge for modeling population dynamics. The experimental results identify the optimal design decisions regarding the learning algorithm. The results also show that the proposed ensembles yield significantly more accurate predictions of population dynamics as compared to individual process-based models. Finally, while their predictive performance is comparable to the one of ensembles obtained with the state-of-the-art methods of bagging and boosting, they are substantially more efficient.

Efficient Kernel-Based Ensemble Gaussian Mixture Filtering

KAUST Repository

Liu, Bo

2015-11-11

We consider the Bayesian filtering problem for data assimilation following the kernel-based ensemble Gaussian-mixture filtering (EnGMF) approach introduced by Anderson and Anderson (1999). In this approach, the posterior distribution of the system state is propagated with the model using the ensemble Monte Carlo method, providing a forecast ensemble that is then used to construct a prior Gaussian-mixture (GM) based on the kernel density estimator. This results in two update steps: a Kalman filter (KF)-like update of the ensemble members and a particle filter (PF)-like update of the weights, followed by a resampling step to start a new forecast cycle. After formulating EnGMF for any observational operator, we analyze the influence of the bandwidth parameter of the kernel function on the covariance of the posterior distribution. We then focus on two aspects: i) the efficient implementation of EnGMF with (relatively) small ensembles, where we propose a new deterministic resampling strategy preserving the first two moments of the posterior GM to limit the sampling error; and ii) the analysis of the effect of the bandwidth parameter on contributions of KF and PF updates and on the weights variance. Numerical results using the Lorenz-96 model are presented to assess the behavior of EnGMF with deterministic resampling, study its sensitivity to different parameters and settings, and evaluate its performance against ensemble KFs. The proposed EnGMF approach with deterministic resampling suggests improved estimates in all tested scenarios, and is shown to require less localization and to be less sensitive to the choice of filtering parameters.

A class of energy-based ensembles in Tsallis statistics

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chandrashekar, R; Naina Mohammed, S S

2011-01-01

A comprehensive investigation is carried out on the class of energy-based ensembles. The eight ensembles are divided into two main classes. In the isothermal class of ensembles the individual members are at the same temperature. A unified framework is evolved to describe the four isothermal ensembles using the currently accepted third constraint formalism. The isothermal–isobaric, grand canonical and generalized ensembles are illustrated through a study of the classical nonrelativistic and extreme relativistic ideal gas models. An exact calculation is possible only in the case of the isothermal–isobaric ensemble. The study of the ideal gas models in the grand canonical and the generalized ensembles has been carried out using a perturbative procedure with the nonextensivity parameter (1 − q) as the expansion parameter. Though all the thermodynamic quantities have been computed up to a particular order in (1 − q) the procedure can be extended up to any arbitrary order in the expansion parameter. In the adiabatic class of ensembles the individual members of the ensemble have the same value of the heat function and a unified formulation to described all four ensembles is given. The nonrelativistic and the extreme relativistic ideal gases are studied in the isoenthalpic–isobaric ensemble, the adiabatic ensemble with number fluctuations and the adiabatic ensemble with number and particle fluctuations

Flood Forecasting Based on TIGGE Precipitation Ensemble Forecast

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Jinyin Ye

2016-01-01

Full Text Available TIGGE (THORPEX International Grand Global Ensemble was a major part of the THORPEX (Observing System Research and Predictability Experiment. It integrates ensemble precipitation products from all the major forecast centers in the world and provides systematic evaluation on the multimodel ensemble prediction system. Development of meteorologic-hydrologic coupled flood forecasting model and early warning model based on the TIGGE precipitation ensemble forecast can provide flood probability forecast, extend the lead time of the flood forecast, and gain more time for decision-makers to make the right decision. In this study, precipitation ensemble forecast products from ECMWF, NCEP, and CMA are used to drive distributed hydrologic model TOPX. We focus on Yi River catchment and aim to build a flood forecast and early warning system. The results show that the meteorologic-hydrologic coupled model can satisfactorily predict the flow-process of four flood events. The predicted occurrence time of peak discharges is close to the observations. However, the magnitude of the peak discharges is significantly different due to various performances of the ensemble prediction systems. The coupled forecasting model can accurately predict occurrence of the peak time and the corresponding risk probability of peak discharge based on the probability distribution of peak time and flood warning, which can provide users a strong theoretical foundation and valuable information as a promising new approach.

Implementation of the ANNs ensembles in macro-BIM cost estimates of buildings' floor structural frames

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Juszczyk, Michał

2018-04-01

This paper reports some results of the studies on the use of artificial intelligence tools for the purposes of cost estimation based on building information models. A problem of the cost estimates based on the building information models on a macro level supported by the ensembles of artificial neural networks is concisely discussed. In the course of the research a regression model has been built for the purposes of cost estimation of buildings' floor structural frames, as higher level elements. Building information models are supposed to serve as a repository of data used for the purposes of cost estimation. The core of the model is the ensemble of neural networks. The developed model allows the prediction of cost estimates with satisfactory accuracy.

Detecting Malware with an Ensemble Method Based on Deep Neural Network

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Jinpei Yan

2018-01-01

Full Text Available Malware detection plays a crucial role in computer security. Recent researches mainly use machine learning based methods heavily relying on domain knowledge for manually extracting malicious features. In this paper, we propose MalNet, a novel malware detection method that learns features automatically from the raw data. Concretely, we first generate a grayscale image from malware file, meanwhile extracting its opcode sequences with the decompilation tool IDA. Then MalNet uses CNN and LSTM networks to learn from grayscale image and opcode sequence, respectively, and takes a stacking ensemble for malware classification. We perform experiments on more than 40,000 samples including 20,650 benign files collected from online software providers and 21,736 malwares provided by Microsoft. The evaluation result shows that MalNet achieves 99.88% validation accuracy for malware detection. In addition, we also take malware family classification experiment on 9 malware families to compare MalNet with other related works, in which MalNet outperforms most of related works with 99.36% detection accuracy and achieves a considerable speed-up on detecting efficiency comparing with two state-of-the-art results on Microsoft malware dataset.

Proposed hybrid-classifier ensemble algorithm to map snow cover area

Science.gov (United States)

Nijhawan, Rahul; Raman, Balasubramanian; Das, Josodhir

2018-01-01

Metaclassification ensemble approach is known to improve the prediction performance of snow-covered area. The methodology adopted in this case is based on neural network along with four state-of-art machine learning algorithms: support vector machine, artificial neural networks, spectral angle mapper, K-mean clustering, and a snow index: normalized difference snow index. An AdaBoost ensemble algorithm related to decision tree for snow-cover mapping is also proposed. According to available literature, these methods have been rarely used for snow-cover mapping. Employing the above techniques, a study was conducted for Raktavarn and Chaturangi Bamak glaciers, Uttarakhand, Himalaya using multispectral Landsat 7 ETM+ (enhanced thematic mapper) image. The study also compares the results with those obtained from statistical combination methods (majority rule and belief functions) and accuracies of individual classifiers. Accuracy assessment is performed by computing the quantity and allocation disagreement, analyzing statistic measures (accuracy, precision, specificity, AUC, and sensitivity) and receiver operating characteristic curves. A total of 225 combinations of parameters for individual classifiers were trained and tested on the dataset and results were compared with the proposed approach. It was observed that the proposed methodology produced the highest classification accuracy (95.21%), close to (94.01%) that was produced by the proposed AdaBoost ensemble algorithm. From the sets of observations, it was concluded that the ensemble of classifiers produced better results compared to individual classifiers.

A study of fuzzy logic ensemble system performance on face recognition problem

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Polyakova, A.; Lipinskiy, L.

2017-02-01

Some problems are difficult to solve by using a single intelligent information technology (IIT). The ensemble of the various data mining (DM) techniques is a set of models which are able to solve the problem by itself, but the combination of which allows increasing the efficiency of the system as a whole. Using the IIT ensembles can improve the reliability and efficiency of the final decision, since it emphasizes on the diversity of its components. The new method of the intellectual informational technology ensemble design is considered in this paper. It is based on the fuzzy logic and is designed to solve the classification and regression problems. The ensemble consists of several data mining algorithms: artificial neural network, support vector machine and decision trees. These algorithms and their ensemble have been tested by solving the face recognition problems. Principal components analysis (PCA) is used for feature selection.

Design ensemble machine learning model for breast cancer diagnosis.

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Hsieh, Sheau-Ling; Hsieh, Sung-Huai; Cheng, Po-Hsun; Chen, Chi-Huang; Hsu, Kai-Ping; Lee, I-Shun; Wang, Zhenyu; Lai, Feipei

2012-10-01

In this paper, we classify the breast cancer of medical diagnostic data. Information gain has been adapted for feature selections. Neural fuzzy (NF), k-nearest neighbor (KNN), quadratic classifier (QC), each single model scheme as well as their associated, ensemble ones have been developed for classifications. In addition, a combined ensemble model with these three schemes has been constructed for further validations. The experimental results indicate that the ensemble learning performs better than individual single ones. Moreover, the combined ensemble model illustrates the highest accuracy of classifications for the breast cancer among all models.

Exploiting ensemble learning for automatic cataract detection and grading.

Science.gov (United States)

Yang, Ji-Jiang; Li, Jianqiang; Shen, Ruifang; Zeng, Yang; He, Jian; Bi, Jing; Li, Yong; Zhang, Qinyan; Peng, Lihui; Wang, Qing

2016-02-01

Cataract is defined as a lenticular opacity presenting usually with poor visual acuity. It is one of the most common causes of visual impairment worldwide. Early diagnosis demands the expertise of trained healthcare professionals, which may present a barrier to early intervention due to underlying costs. To date, studies reported in the literature utilize a single learning model for retinal image classification in grading cataract severity. We present an ensemble learning based approach as a means to improving diagnostic accuracy. Three independent feature sets, i.e., wavelet-, sketch-, and texture-based features, are extracted from each fundus image. For each feature set, two base learning models, i.e., Support Vector Machine and Back Propagation Neural Network, are built. Then, the ensemble methods, majority voting and stacking, are investigated to combine the multiple base learning models for final fundus image classification. Empirical experiments are conducted for cataract detection (two-class task, i.e., cataract or non-cataractous) and cataract grading (four-class task, i.e., non-cataractous, mild, moderate or severe) tasks. The best performance of the ensemble classifier is 93.2% and 84.5% in terms of the correct classification rates for cataract detection and grading tasks, respectively. The results demonstrate that the ensemble classifier outperforms the single learning model significantly, which also illustrates the effectiveness of the proposed approach. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Cluster Ensemble-Based Image Segmentation

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Xiaoru Wang

2013-07-01

Full Text Available Image segmentation is the foundation of computer vision applications. In this paper, we propose a new cluster ensemble-based image segmentation algorithm, which overcomes several problems of traditional methods. We make two main contributions in this paper. First, we introduce the cluster ensemble concept to fuse the segmentation results from different types of visual features effectively, which can deliver a better final result and achieve a much more stable performance for broad categories of images. Second, we exploit the PageRank idea from Internet applications and apply it to the image segmentation task. This can improve the final segmentation results by combining the spatial information of the image and the semantic similarity of regions. Our experiments on four public image databases validate the superiority of our algorithm over conventional single type of feature or multiple types of features-based algorithms, since our algorithm can fuse multiple types of features effectively for better segmentation results. Moreover, our method is also proved to be very competitive in comparison with other state-of-the-art segmentation algorithms.

A multi-model ensemble approach to seabed mapping

Science.gov (United States)

Diesing, Markus; Stephens, David

2015-06-01

Seabed habitat mapping based on swath acoustic data and ground-truth samples is an emergent and active marine science discipline. Significant progress could be achieved by transferring techniques and approaches that have been successfully developed and employed in such fields as terrestrial land cover mapping. One such promising approach is the multiple classifier system, which aims at improving classification performance by combining the outputs of several classifiers. Here we present results of a multi-model ensemble applied to multibeam acoustic data covering more than 5000 km2 of seabed in the North Sea with the aim to derive accurate spatial predictions of seabed substrate. A suite of six machine learning classifiers (k-Nearest Neighbour, Support Vector Machine, Classification Tree, Random Forest, Neural Network and Naïve Bayes) was trained with ground-truth sample data classified into seabed substrate classes and their prediction accuracy was assessed with an independent set of samples. The three and five best performing models were combined to classifier ensembles. Both ensembles led to increased prediction accuracy as compared to the best performing single classifier. The improvements were however not statistically significant at the 5% level. Although the three-model ensemble did not perform significantly better than its individual component models, we noticed that the five-model ensemble did perform significantly better than three of the five component models. A classifier ensemble might therefore be an effective strategy to improve classification performance. Another advantage is the fact that the agreement in predicted substrate class between the individual models of the ensemble could be used as a measure of confidence. We propose a simple and spatially explicit measure of confidence that is based on model agreement and prediction accuracy.

Estimation of soil saturated hydraulic conductivity by artificial neural networks ensemble in smectitic soils

Science.gov (United States)

Sedaghat, A.; Bayat, H.; Safari Sinegani, A. A.

2016-03-01

The saturated hydraulic conductivity ( K s ) of the soil is one of the main soil physical properties. Indirect estimation of this parameter using pedo-transfer functions (PTFs) has received considerable attention. The Purpose of this study was to improve the estimation of K s using fractal parameters of particle and micro-aggregate size distributions in smectitic soils. In this study 260 disturbed and undisturbed soil samples were collected from Guilan province, the north of Iran. The fractal model of Bird and Perrier was used to compute the fractal parameters of particle and micro-aggregate size distributions. The PTFs were developed by artificial neural networks (ANNs) ensemble to estimate K s by using available soil data and fractal parameters. There were found significant correlations between K s and fractal parameters of particles and microaggregates. Estimation of K s was improved significantly by using fractal parameters of soil micro-aggregates as predictors. But using geometric mean and geometric standard deviation of particles diameter did not improve K s estimations significantly. Using fractal parameters of particles and micro-aggregates simultaneously, had the most effect in the estimation of K s . Generally, fractal parameters can be successfully used as input parameters to improve the estimation of K s in the PTFs in smectitic soils. As a result, ANNs ensemble successfully correlated the fractal parameters of particles and micro-aggregates to K s .

Ensemble of classifiers based network intrusion detection system performance bound

CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

Mkuzangwe, Nenekazi NP

2017-11-01

Full Text Available This paper provides a performance bound of a network intrusion detection system (NIDS) that uses an ensemble of classifiers. Currently researchers rely on implementing the ensemble of classifiers based NIDS before they can determine the performance...

Quantum Ensemble Classification: A Sampling-Based Learning Control Approach.

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, Chunlin; Dong, Daoyi; Qi, Bo; Petersen, Ian R; Rabitz, Herschel

2017-06-01

Quantum ensemble classification (QEC) has significant applications in discrimination of atoms (or molecules), separation of isotopes, and quantum information extraction. However, quantum mechanics forbids deterministic discrimination among nonorthogonal states. The classification of inhomogeneous quantum ensembles is very challenging, since there exist variations in the parameters characterizing the members within different classes. In this paper, we recast QEC as a supervised quantum learning problem. A systematic classification methodology is presented by using a sampling-based learning control (SLC) approach for quantum discrimination. The classification task is accomplished via simultaneously steering members belonging to different classes to their corresponding target states (e.g., mutually orthogonal states). First, a new discrimination method is proposed for two similar quantum systems. Then, an SLC method is presented for QEC. Numerical results demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed approach for the binary classification of two-level quantum ensembles and the multiclass classification of multilevel quantum ensembles.

Layered Ensemble Architecture for Time Series Forecasting.

Science.gov (United States)

Rahman, Md Mustafizur; Islam, Md Monirul; Murase, Kazuyuki; Yao, Xin

2016-01-01

Time series forecasting (TSF) has been widely used in many application areas such as science, engineering, and finance. The phenomena generating time series are usually unknown and information available for forecasting is only limited to the past values of the series. It is, therefore, necessary to use an appropriate number of past values, termed lag, for forecasting. This paper proposes a layered ensemble architecture (LEA) for TSF problems. Our LEA consists of two layers, each of which uses an ensemble of multilayer perceptron (MLP) networks. While the first ensemble layer tries to find an appropriate lag, the second ensemble layer employs the obtained lag for forecasting. Unlike most previous work on TSF, the proposed architecture considers both accuracy and diversity of the individual networks in constructing an ensemble. LEA trains different networks in the ensemble by using different training sets with an aim of maintaining diversity among the networks. However, it uses the appropriate lag and combines the best trained networks to construct the ensemble. This indicates LEAs emphasis on accuracy of the networks. The proposed architecture has been tested extensively on time series data of neural network (NN)3 and NN5 competitions. It has also been tested on several standard benchmark time series data. In terms of forecasting accuracy, our experimental results have revealed clearly that LEA is better than other ensemble and nonensemble methods.

On Ensemble Nonlinear Kalman Filtering with Symmetric Analysis Ensembles

KAUST Repository

Luo, Xiaodong; Hoteit, Ibrahim; Moroz, Irene M.

2010-01-01

However, by adopting the Monte Carlo method, the EnSRF also incurs certain sampling errors. One way to alleviate this problem is to introduce certain symmetry to the ensembles, which can reduce the sampling errors and spurious modes in evaluation of the means and covariances of the ensembles [7]. In this contribution, we present two methods to produce symmetric ensembles. One is based on the unscented transform [8, 9], which leads to the unscented Kalman filter (UKF) [8, 9] and its variant, the ensemble unscented Kalman filter (EnUKF) [7]. The other is based on Stirling’s interpolation formula (SIF), which results in the divided difference filter (DDF) [10]. Here we propose a simplified divided difference filter (sDDF) in the context of ensemble filtering. The similarity and difference between the sDDF and the EnUKF will be discussed. Numerical experiments will also be conducted to investigate the performance of the sDDF and the EnUKF, and compare them to a well‐established EnSRF, the ensemble transform Kalman filter (ETKF) [2].

An adaptive Gaussian process-based iterative ensemble smoother for data assimilation

Science.gov (United States)

Ju, Lei; Zhang, Jiangjiang; Meng, Long; Wu, Laosheng; Zeng, Lingzao

2018-05-01

Accurate characterization of subsurface hydraulic conductivity is vital for modeling of subsurface flow and transport. The iterative ensemble smoother (IES) has been proposed to estimate the heterogeneous parameter field. As a Monte Carlo-based method, IES requires a relatively large ensemble size to guarantee its performance. To improve the computational efficiency, we propose an adaptive Gaussian process (GP)-based iterative ensemble smoother (GPIES) in this study. At each iteration, the GP surrogate is adaptively refined by adding a few new base points chosen from the updated parameter realizations. Then the sensitivity information between model parameters and measurements is calculated from a large number of realizations generated by the GP surrogate with virtually no computational cost. Since the original model evaluations are only required for base points, whose number is much smaller than the ensemble size, the computational cost is significantly reduced. The applicability of GPIES in estimating heterogeneous conductivity is evaluated by the saturated and unsaturated flow problems, respectively. Without sacrificing estimation accuracy, GPIES achieves about an order of magnitude of speed-up compared with the standard IES. Although subsurface flow problems are considered in this study, the proposed method can be equally applied to other hydrological models.

Rainfall downscaling of weekly ensemble forecasts using self-organising maps

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Masamichi Ohba

2016-03-01

Full Text Available This study presents an application of self-organising maps (SOMs to downscaling medium-range ensemble forecasts and probabilistic prediction of local precipitation in Japan. SOM was applied to analyse and connect the relationship between atmospheric patterns over Japan and local high-resolution precipitation data. Multiple SOM was simultaneously employed on four variables derived from the JRA-55 reanalysis over the area of study (south-western Japan, and a two-dimensional lattice of weather patterns (WPs was obtained. Weekly ensemble forecasts can be downscaled to local precipitation using the obtained multiple SOM. The downscaled precipitation is derived by the five SOM lattices based on the WPs of the global model ensemble forecasts for a particular day in 2009–2011. Because this method effectively handles the stochastic uncertainties from the large number of ensemble members, a probabilistic local precipitation is easily and quickly obtained from the ensemble forecasts. This downscaling of ensemble forecasts provides results better than those from a 20-km global spectral model (i.e. capturing the relatively detailed precipitation distribution over the region. To capture the effect of the detailed pattern differences in each SOM node, a statistical model is additionally concreted for each SOM node. The predictability skill of the ensemble forecasts is significantly improved under the neural network-statistics hybrid-downscaling technique, which then brings a much better skill score than the traditional method. It is expected that the results of this study will provide better guidance to the user community and contribute to the future development of dam-management models.

Predictor-Year Subspace Clustering Based Ensemble Prediction of Indian Summer Monsoon

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Moumita Saha

2016-01-01

Full Text Available Forecasting the Indian summer monsoon is a challenging task due to its complex and nonlinear behavior. A large number of global climatic variables with varying interaction patterns over years influence monsoon. Various statistical and neural prediction models have been proposed for forecasting monsoon, but many of them fail to capture variability over years. The skill of predictor variables of monsoon also evolves over time. In this article, we propose a joint-clustering of monsoon years and predictors for understanding and predicting the monsoon. This is achieved by subspace clustering algorithm. It groups the years based on prevailing global climatic condition using statistical clustering technique and subsequently for each such group it identifies significant climatic predictor variables which assist in better prediction. Prediction model is designed to frame individual cluster using random forest of regression tree. Prediction of aggregate and regional monsoon is attempted. Mean absolute error of 5.2% is obtained for forecasting aggregate Indian summer monsoon. Errors in predicting the regional monsoons are also comparable in comparison to the high variation of regional precipitation. Proposed joint-clustering based ensemble model is observed to be superior to existing monsoon prediction models and it also surpasses general nonclustering based prediction models.

Online cross-validation-based ensemble learning.

Science.gov (United States)

Benkeser, David; Ju, Cheng; Lendle, Sam; van der Laan, Mark

2018-01-30

Online estimators update a current estimate with a new incoming batch of data without having to revisit past data thereby providing streaming estimates that are scalable to big data. We develop flexible, ensemble-based online estimators of an infinite-dimensional target parameter, such as a regression function, in the setting where data are generated sequentially by a common conditional data distribution given summary measures of the past. This setting encompasses a wide range of time-series models and, as special case, models for independent and identically distributed data. Our estimator considers a large library of candidate online estimators and uses online cross-validation to identify the algorithm with the best performance. We show that by basing estimates on the cross-validation-selected algorithm, we are asymptotically guaranteed to perform as well as the true, unknown best-performing algorithm. We provide extensions of this approach including online estimation of the optimal ensemble of candidate online estimators. We illustrate excellent performance of our methods using simulations and a real data example where we make streaming predictions of infectious disease incidence using data from a large database. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Constructing Support Vector Machine Ensembles for Cancer Classification Based on Proteomic Profiling

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

Yong Mao; Xiao-Bo Zhou; Dao-Ying Pi; You-Xian Sun

2005-01-01

In this study, we present a constructive algorithm for training cooperative support vector machine ensembles (CSVMEs). CSVME combines ensemble architecture design with cooperative training for individual SVMs in ensembles. Unlike most previous studies on training ensembles, CSVME puts emphasis on both accuracy and collaboration among individual SVMs in an ensemble. A group of SVMs selected on the basis of recursive classifier elimination is used in CSVME, and the number of the individual SVMs selected to construct CSVME is determined by 10-fold cross-validation. This kind of SVME has been tested on two ovarian cancer datasets previously obtained by proteomic mass spectrometry. By combining several individual SVMs, the proposed method achieves better performance than the SVME of all base SVMs.

Comprehensive Study on Lexicon-based Ensemble Classification Sentiment Analysis

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Łukasz Augustyniak

2015-12-01

Full Text Available We propose a novel method for counting sentiment orientation that outperforms supervised learning approaches in time and memory complexity and is not statistically significantly different from them in accuracy. Our method consists of a novel approach to generating unigram, bigram and trigram lexicons. The proposed method, called frequentiment, is based on calculating the frequency of features (words in the document and averaging their impact on the sentiment score as opposed to documents that do not contain these features. Afterwards, we use ensemble classification to improve the overall accuracy of the method. What is important is that the frequentiment-based lexicons with sentiment threshold selection outperform other popular lexicons and some supervised learners, while being 3–5 times faster than the supervised approach. We compare 37 methods (lexicons, ensembles with lexicon’s predictions as input and supervised learners applied to 10 Amazon review data sets and provide the first statistical comparison of the sentiment annotation methods that include ensemble approaches. It is one of the most comprehensive comparisons of domain sentiment analysis in the literature.

Force Sensor Based Tool Condition Monitoring Using a Heterogeneous Ensemble Learning Model

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Guofeng Wang

2014-11-01

Full Text Available Tool condition monitoring (TCM plays an important role in improving machining efficiency and guaranteeing workpiece quality. In order to realize reliable recognition of the tool condition, a robust classifier needs to be constructed to depict the relationship between tool wear states and sensory information. However, because of the complexity of the machining process and the uncertainty of the tool wear evolution, it is hard for a single classifier to fit all the collected samples without sacrificing generalization ability. In this paper, heterogeneous ensemble learning is proposed to realize tool condition monitoring in which the support vector machine (SVM, hidden Markov model (HMM and radius basis function (RBF are selected as base classifiers and a stacking ensemble strategy is further used to reflect the relationship between the outputs of these base classifiers and tool wear states. Based on the heterogeneous ensemble learning classifier, an online monitoring system is constructed in which the harmonic features are extracted from force signals and a minimal redundancy and maximal relevance (mRMR algorithm is utilized to select the most prominent features. To verify the effectiveness of the proposed method, a titanium alloy milling experiment was carried out and samples with different tool wear states were collected to build the proposed heterogeneous ensemble learning classifier. Moreover, the homogeneous ensemble learning model and majority voting strategy are also adopted to make a comparison. The analysis and comparison results show that the proposed heterogeneous ensemble learning classifier performs better in both classification accuracy and stability.

Comparative Visualization of Vector Field Ensembles Based on Longest Common Subsequence

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Liu, Richen; Guo, Hanqi; Zhang, Jiang; Yuan, Xiaoru

2016-04-19

We propose a longest common subsequence (LCS) based approach to compute the distance among vector field ensembles. By measuring how many common blocks the ensemble pathlines passing through, the LCS distance defines the similarity among vector field ensembles by counting the number of sharing domain data blocks. Compared to the traditional methods (e.g. point-wise Euclidean distance or dynamic time warping distance), the proposed approach is robust to outlier, data missing, and sampling rate of pathline timestep. Taking the advantages of smaller and reusable intermediate output, visualization based on the proposed LCS approach revealing temporal trends in the data at low storage cost, and avoiding tracing pathlines repeatedly. Finally, we evaluate our method on both synthetic data and simulation data, which demonstrate the robustness of the proposed approach.

Neural Based Orthogonal Data Fitting The EXIN Neural Networks

CERN Document Server

Cirrincione, Giansalvo

2008-01-01

Written by three leaders in the field of neural based algorithms, Neural Based Orthogonal Data Fitting proposes several neural networks, all endowed with a complete theory which not only explains their behavior, but also compares them with the existing neural and traditional algorithms. The algorithms are studied from different points of view, including: as a differential geometry problem, as a dynamic problem, as a stochastic problem, and as a numerical problem. All algorithms have also been analyzed on real time problems (large dimensional data matrices) and have shown accurate solutions. Wh

On Ensemble Nonlinear Kalman Filtering with Symmetric Analysis Ensembles

KAUST Repository

Luo, Xiaodong

2010-09-19

The ensemble square root filter (EnSRF) [1, 2, 3, 4] is a popular method for data assimilation in high dimensional systems (e.g., geophysics models). Essentially the EnSRF is a Monte Carlo implementation of the conventional Kalman filter (KF) [5, 6]. It is mainly different from the KF at the prediction steps, where it is some ensembles, rather then the means and covariance matrices, of the system state that are propagated forward. In doing this, the EnSRF is computationally more efficient than the KF, since propagating a covariance matrix forward in high dimensional systems is prohibitively expensive. In addition, the EnSRF is also very convenient in implementation. By propagating the ensembles of the system state, the EnSRF can be directly applied to nonlinear systems without any change in comparison to the assimilation procedures in linear systems. However, by adopting the Monte Carlo method, the EnSRF also incurs certain sampling errors. One way to alleviate this problem is to introduce certain symmetry to the ensembles, which can reduce the sampling errors and spurious modes in evaluation of the means and covariances of the ensembles [7]. In this contribution, we present two methods to produce symmetric ensembles. One is based on the unscented transform [8, 9], which leads to the unscented Kalman filter (UKF) [8, 9] and its variant, the ensemble unscented Kalman filter (EnUKF) [7]. The other is based on Stirling’s interpolation formula (SIF), which results in the divided difference filter (DDF) [10]. Here we propose a simplified divided difference filter (sDDF) in the context of ensemble filtering. The similarity and difference between the sDDF and the EnUKF will be discussed. Numerical experiments will also be conducted to investigate the performance of the sDDF and the EnUKF, and compare them to a well‐established EnSRF, the ensemble transform Kalman filter (ETKF) [2].

Evaluating an ensemble classification approach for crop diversityverification in Danish greening subsidy control

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Chellasamy, Menaka; Ferre, Ty; Greve, Mogens Humlekrog

2016-01-01

Beginning in 2015, Danish farmers are obliged to meet specific crop diversification rules based on total land area and number of crops cultivated to be eligible for new greening subsidies. Hence, there is a need for the Danish government to extend their subsidy control system to verify farmers......’ declarations to war-rant greening payments under the new crop diversification rules. Remote Sensing (RS) technology has been used since 1992 to control farmers’ subsidies in Denmark. However, a proper RS-based approach is yet to be finalised to validate new crop diversity requirements designed for assessing...... compliance under the recent subsidy scheme (2014–2020); This study uses an ensemble classification approach(proposed by the authors in previous studies) for validating the crop diversity requirements of the new rules. The approach uses a neural network ensemble classification system with bi-temporal (spring...

Linking dynamic patterns of neural activity in orbitofrontal cortex with decision making.

Science.gov (United States)

Rich, Erin L; Stoll, Frederic M; Rudebeck, Peter H

2018-04-01

Humans and animals demonstrate extraordinary flexibility in choice behavior, particularly when deciding based on subjective preferences. We evaluate options on different scales, deliberate, and often change our minds. Little is known about the neural mechanisms that underlie these dynamic aspects of decision-making, although neural activity in orbitofrontal cortex (OFC) likely plays a central role. Recent evidence from studies in macaques shows that attention modulates value responses in OFC, and that ensembles of OFC neurons dynamically signal different options during choices. When contexts change, these ensembles flexibly remap to encode the new task. Determining how these dynamic patterns emerge and relate to choices will inform models of decision-making and OFC function. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Convolutional Neural Network Based on Extreme Learning Machine for Maritime Ships Recognition in Infrared Images.

Science.gov (United States)

Khellal, Atmane; Ma, Hongbin; Fei, Qing

2018-05-09

The success of Deep Learning models, notably convolutional neural networks (CNNs), makes them the favorable solution for object recognition systems in both visible and infrared domains. However, the lack of training data in the case of maritime ships research leads to poor performance due to the problem of overfitting. In addition, the back-propagation algorithm used to train CNN is very slow and requires tuning many hyperparameters. To overcome these weaknesses, we introduce a new approach fully based on Extreme Learning Machine (ELM) to learn useful CNN features and perform a fast and accurate classification, which is suitable for infrared-based recognition systems. The proposed approach combines an ELM based learning algorithm to train CNN for discriminative features extraction and an ELM based ensemble for classification. The experimental results on VAIS dataset, which is the largest dataset of maritime ships, confirm that the proposed approach outperforms the state-of-the-art models in term of generalization performance and training speed. For instance, the proposed model is up to 950 times faster than the traditional back-propagation based training of convolutional neural networks, primarily for low-level features extraction.

Credit scoring using ensemble of various classifiers on reduced feature set

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Dahiya Shashi

2015-01-01

Full Text Available Credit scoring methods are widely used for evaluating loan applications in financial and banking institutions. Credit score identifies if applicant customers belong to good risk applicant group or a bad risk applicant group. These decisions are based on the demographic data of the customers, overall business by the customer with bank, and loan payment history of the loan applicants. The advantages of using credit scoring models include reducing the cost of credit analysis, enabling faster credit decisions and diminishing possible risk. Many statistical and machine learning techniques such as Logistic Regression, Support Vector Machines, Neural Networks and Decision tree algorithms have been used independently and as hybrid credit scoring models. This paper proposes an ensemble based technique combining seven individual models to increase the classification accuracy. Feature selection has also been used for selecting important attributes for classification. Cross classification was conducted using three data partitions. German credit dataset having 1000 instances and 21 attributes is used in the present study. The results of the experiments revealed that the ensemble model yielded a very good accuracy when compared to individual models. In all three different partitions, the ensemble model was able to classify more than 80% of the loan customers as good creditors correctly. Also, for 70:30 partition there was a good impact of feature selection on the accuracy of classifiers. The results were improved for almost all individual models including the ensemble model.

Harmony Search Based Parameter Ensemble Adaptation for Differential Evolution

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Rammohan Mallipeddi

2013-01-01

Full Text Available In differential evolution (DE algorithm, depending on the characteristics of the problem at hand and the available computational resources, different strategies combined with a different set of parameters may be effective. In addition, a single, well-tuned combination of strategies and parameters may not guarantee optimal performance because different strategies combined with different parameter settings can be appropriate during different stages of the evolution. Therefore, various adaptive/self-adaptive techniques have been proposed to adapt the DE strategies and parameters during the course of evolution. In this paper, we propose a new parameter adaptation technique for DE based on ensemble approach and harmony search algorithm (HS. In the proposed method, an ensemble of parameters is randomly sampled which form the initial harmony memory. The parameter ensemble evolves during the course of the optimization process by HS algorithm. Each parameter combination in the harmony memory is evaluated by testing them on the DE population. The performance of the proposed adaptation method is evaluated using two recently proposed strategies (DE/current-to-pbest/bin and DE/current-to-gr_best/bin as basic DE frameworks. Numerical results demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed adaptation technique compared to the state-of-the-art DE based algorithms on a set of challenging test problems (CEC 2005.

Entrained rhythmic activities of neuronal ensembles as perceptual memory of time interval.

Science.gov (United States)

Sumbre, Germán; Muto, Akira; Baier, Herwig; Poo, Mu-ming

2008-11-06

The ability to process temporal information is fundamental to sensory perception, cognitive processing and motor behaviour of all living organisms, from amoebae to humans. Neural circuit mechanisms based on neuronal and synaptic properties have been shown to process temporal information over the range of tens of microseconds to hundreds of milliseconds. How neural circuits process temporal information in the range of seconds to minutes is much less understood. Studies of working memory in monkeys and rats have shown that neurons in the prefrontal cortex, the parietal cortex and the thalamus exhibit ramping activities that linearly correlate with the lapse of time until the end of a specific time interval of several seconds that the animal is trained to memorize. Many organisms can also memorize the time interval of rhythmic sensory stimuli in the timescale of seconds and can coordinate motor behaviour accordingly, for example, by keeping the rhythm after exposure to the beat of music. Here we report a form of rhythmic activity among specific neuronal ensembles in the zebrafish optic tectum, which retains the memory of the time interval (in the order of seconds) of repetitive sensory stimuli for a duration of up to approximately 20 s. After repetitive visual conditioning stimulation (CS) of zebrafish larvae, we observed rhythmic post-CS activities among specific tectal neuronal ensembles, with a regular interval that closely matched the CS. Visuomotor behaviour of the zebrafish larvae also showed regular post-CS repetitions at the entrained time interval that correlated with rhythmic neuronal ensemble activities in the tectum. Thus, rhythmic activities among specific neuronal ensembles may act as an adjustable 'metronome' for time intervals in the order of seconds, and serve as a mechanism for the short-term perceptual memory of rhythmic sensory experience.

Ensemble-based Probabilistic Forecasting at Horns Rev

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Pinson, Pierre; Madsen, Henrik

2009-01-01

forecasting methodology. In a first stage, ensemble forecasts of meteorological variables are converted to power through a suitable power curve model. This modelemploys local polynomial regression, and is adoptively estimated with an orthogonal fitting method. The obtained ensemble forecasts of wind power...

'Lazy' quantum ensembles

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Parfionov, George; Zapatrin, Roman

2006-01-01

We compare different strategies aimed to prepare an ensemble with a given density matrix ρ. Preparing the ensemble of eigenstates of ρ with appropriate probabilities can be treated as 'generous' strategy: it provides maximal accessible information about the state. Another extremity is the so-called 'Scrooge' ensemble, which is mostly stingy in sharing the information. We introduce 'lazy' ensembles which require minimal effort to prepare the density matrix by selecting pure states with respect to completely random choice. We consider two parties, Alice and Bob, playing a kind of game. Bob wishes to guess which pure state is prepared by Alice. His null hypothesis, based on the lack of any information about Alice's intention, is that Alice prepares any pure state with equal probability. Then, the average quantum state measured by Bob turns out to be ρ, and he has to make a new hypothesis about Alice's intention solely based on the information that the observed density matrix is ρ. The arising 'lazy' ensemble is shown to be the alternative hypothesis which minimizes type I error

A Matrix-Free Posterior Ensemble Kalman Filter Implementation Based on a Modified Cholesky Decomposition

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Elias D. Nino-Ruiz

2017-07-01

Full Text Available In this paper, a matrix-free posterior ensemble Kalman filter implementation based on a modified Cholesky decomposition is proposed. The method works as follows: the precision matrix of the background error distribution is estimated based on a modified Cholesky decomposition. The resulting estimator can be expressed in terms of Cholesky factors which can be updated based on a series of rank-one matrices in order to approximate the precision matrix of the analysis distribution. By using this matrix, the posterior ensemble can be built by either sampling from the posterior distribution or using synthetic observations. Furthermore, the computational effort of the proposed method is linear with regard to the model dimension and the number of observed components from the model domain. Experimental tests are performed making use of the Lorenz-96 model. The results reveal that, the accuracy of the proposed implementation in terms of root-mean-square-error is similar, and in some cases better, to that of a well-known ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF implementation: the local ensemble transform Kalman filter. In addition, the results are comparable to those obtained by the EnKF with large ensemble sizes.

Using decision trees and their ensembles for analysis of NIR spectroscopic data

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kucheryavskiy, Sergey V.

and interpretation of the models. In this presentation, we are going to discuss an applicability of decision trees based methods (including gradient boosting) for solving classification and regression tasks with NIR spectra as predictors. We will cover such aspects as evaluation, optimization and validation......Advanced machine learning methods, like convolutional neural networks and decision trees, became extremely popular in the last decade. This, first of all, is directly related to the current boom in Big data analysis, where traditional statistical methods are not efficient. According to the kaggle.......com — the most popular online resource for Big data problems and solutions — methods based on decision trees and their ensembles are most widely used for solving the problems. It can be noted that the decision trees and convolutional neural networks are not very popular in Chemometrics. One of the reasons...

A deep learning-based multi-model ensemble method for cancer prediction.

Science.gov (United States)

Xiao, Yawen; Wu, Jun; Lin, Zongli; Zhao, Xiaodong

2018-01-01

Cancer is a complex worldwide health problem associated with high mortality. With the rapid development of the high-throughput sequencing technology and the application of various machine learning methods that have emerged in recent years, progress in cancer prediction has been increasingly made based on gene expression, providing insight into effective and accurate treatment decision making. Thus, developing machine learning methods, which can successfully distinguish cancer patients from healthy persons, is of great current interest. However, among the classification methods applied to cancer prediction so far, no one method outperforms all the others. In this paper, we demonstrate a new strategy, which applies deep learning to an ensemble approach that incorporates multiple different machine learning models. We supply informative gene data selected by differential gene expression analysis to five different classification models. Then, a deep learning method is employed to ensemble the outputs of the five classifiers. The proposed deep learning-based multi-model ensemble method was tested on three public RNA-seq data sets of three kinds of cancers, Lung Adenocarcinoma, Stomach Adenocarcinoma and Breast Invasive Carcinoma. The test results indicate that it increases the prediction accuracy of cancer for all the tested RNA-seq data sets as compared to using a single classifier or the majority voting algorithm. By taking full advantage of different classifiers, the proposed deep learning-based multi-model ensemble method is shown to be accurate and effective for cancer prediction. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Automated detection of pulmonary nodules in PET/CT images: Ensemble false-positive reduction using a convolutional neural network technique

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Teramoto, Atsushi, E-mail: teramoto@fujita-hu.ac.jp [Faculty of Radiological Technology, School of Health Sciences, Fujita Health University, 1-98 Dengakugakubo, Kutsukake, Toyoake, Aichi 470-1192 (Japan); Fujita, Hiroshi [Department of Intelligent Image Information, Division of Regeneration and Advanced Medical Sciences, Graduate School of Medicine, Gifu University, 1-1 Yanagido, Gifu 501-1194 (Japan); Yamamuro, Osamu; Tamaki, Tsuneo [East Nagoya Imaging Diagnosis Center, 3-4-26 Jiyugaoka, Chikusa-ku, Nagoya, Aichi 464-0044 (Japan)

2016-06-15

Purpose: Automated detection of solitary pulmonary nodules using positron emission tomography (PET) and computed tomography (CT) images shows good sensitivity; however, it is difficult to detect nodules in contact with normal organs, and additional efforts are needed so that the number of false positives (FPs) can be further reduced. In this paper, the authors propose an improved FP-reduction method for the detection of pulmonary nodules in PET/CT images by means of convolutional neural networks (CNNs). Methods: The overall scheme detects pulmonary nodules using both CT and PET images. In the CT images, a massive region is first detected using an active contour filter, which is a type of contrast enhancement filter that has a deformable kernel shape. Subsequently, high-uptake regions detected by the PET images are merged with the regions detected by the CT images. FP candidates are eliminated using an ensemble method; it consists of two feature extractions, one by shape/metabolic feature analysis and the other by a CNN, followed by a two-step classifier, one step being rule based and the other being based on support vector machines. Results: The authors evaluated the detection performance using 104 PET/CT images collected by a cancer-screening program. The sensitivity in detecting candidates at an initial stage was 97.2%, with 72.8 FPs/case. After performing the proposed FP-reduction method, the sensitivity of detection was 90.1%, with 4.9 FPs/case; the proposed method eliminated approximately half the FPs existing in the previous study. Conclusions: An improved FP-reduction scheme using CNN technique has been developed for the detection of pulmonary nodules in PET/CT images. The authors’ ensemble FP-reduction method eliminated 93% of the FPs; their proposed method using CNN technique eliminates approximately half the FPs existing in the previous study. These results indicate that their method may be useful in the computer-aided detection of pulmonary nodules

Automated detection of pulmonary nodules in PET/CT images: Ensemble false-positive reduction using a convolutional neural network technique

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Teramoto, Atsushi; Fujita, Hiroshi; Yamamuro, Osamu; Tamaki, Tsuneo

2016-01-01

Purpose: Automated detection of solitary pulmonary nodules using positron emission tomography (PET) and computed tomography (CT) images shows good sensitivity; however, it is difficult to detect nodules in contact with normal organs, and additional efforts are needed so that the number of false positives (FPs) can be further reduced. In this paper, the authors propose an improved FP-reduction method for the detection of pulmonary nodules in PET/CT images by means of convolutional neural networks (CNNs). Methods: The overall scheme detects pulmonary nodules using both CT and PET images. In the CT images, a massive region is first detected using an active contour filter, which is a type of contrast enhancement filter that has a deformable kernel shape. Subsequently, high-uptake regions detected by the PET images are merged with the regions detected by the CT images. FP candidates are eliminated using an ensemble method; it consists of two feature extractions, one by shape/metabolic feature analysis and the other by a CNN, followed by a two-step classifier, one step being rule based and the other being based on support vector machines. Results: The authors evaluated the detection performance using 104 PET/CT images collected by a cancer-screening program. The sensitivity in detecting candidates at an initial stage was 97.2%, with 72.8 FPs/case. After performing the proposed FP-reduction method, the sensitivity of detection was 90.1%, with 4.9 FPs/case; the proposed method eliminated approximately half the FPs existing in the previous study. Conclusions: An improved FP-reduction scheme using CNN technique has been developed for the detection of pulmonary nodules in PET/CT images. The authors’ ensemble FP-reduction method eliminated 93% of the FPs; their proposed method using CNN technique eliminates approximately half the FPs existing in the previous study. These results indicate that their method may be useful in the computer-aided detection of pulmonary nodules

An Improved Ensemble of Random Vector Functional Link Networks Based on Particle Swarm Optimization with Double Optimization Strategy.

Science.gov (United States)

Ling, Qing-Hua; Song, Yu-Qing; Han, Fei; Yang, Dan; Huang, De-Shuang

2016-01-01

For ensemble learning, how to select and combine the candidate classifiers are two key issues which influence the performance of the ensemble system dramatically. Random vector functional link networks (RVFL) without direct input-to-output links is one of suitable base-classifiers for ensemble systems because of its fast learning speed, simple structure and good generalization performance. In this paper, to obtain a more compact ensemble system with improved convergence performance, an improved ensemble of RVFL based on attractive and repulsive particle swarm optimization (ARPSO) with double optimization strategy is proposed. In the proposed method, ARPSO is applied to select and combine the candidate RVFL. As for using ARPSO to select the optimal base RVFL, ARPSO considers both the convergence accuracy on the validation data and the diversity of the candidate ensemble system to build the RVFL ensembles. In the process of combining RVFL, the ensemble weights corresponding to the base RVFL are initialized by the minimum norm least-square method and then further optimized by ARPSO. Finally, a few redundant RVFL is pruned, and thus the more compact ensemble of RVFL is obtained. Moreover, in this paper, theoretical analysis and justification on how to prune the base classifiers on classification problem is presented, and a simple and practically feasible strategy for pruning redundant base classifiers on both classification and regression problems is proposed. Since the double optimization is performed on the basis of the single optimization, the ensemble of RVFL built by the proposed method outperforms that built by some single optimization methods. Experiment results on function approximation and classification problems verify that the proposed method could improve its convergence accuracy as well as reduce the complexity of the ensemble system.

Human resource recommendation algorithm based on ensemble learning and Spark

Science.gov (United States)

Cong, Zihan; Zhang, Xingming; Wang, Haoxiang; Xu, Hongjie

2017-08-01

Aiming at the problem of “information overload” in the human resources industry, this paper proposes a human resource recommendation algorithm based on Ensemble Learning. The algorithm considers the characteristics and behaviours of both job seeker and job features in the real business circumstance. Firstly, the algorithm uses two ensemble learning methods-Bagging and Boosting. The outputs from both learning methods are then merged to form user interest model. Based on user interest model, job recommendation can be extracted for users. The algorithm is implemented as a parallelized recommendation system on Spark. A set of experiments have been done and analysed. The proposed algorithm achieves significant improvement in accuracy, recall rate and coverage, compared with recommendation algorithms such as UserCF and ItemCF.

Comparing various artificial neural network types for water temperature prediction in rivers

Science.gov (United States)

Piotrowski, Adam P.; Napiorkowski, Maciej J.; Napiorkowski, Jaroslaw J.; Osuch, Marzena

2015-10-01

A number of methods have been proposed for the prediction of streamwater temperature based on various meteorological and hydrological variables. The present study shows a comparison of few types of data-driven neural networks (multi-layer perceptron, product-units, adaptive-network-based fuzzy inference systems and wavelet neural networks) and nearest neighbour approach for short time streamwater temperature predictions in two natural catchments (mountainous and lowland) located in temperate climate zone, with snowy winters and hot summers. To allow wide applicability of such models, autoregressive inputs are not used and only easily available measurements are considered. Each neural network type is calibrated independently 100 times and the mean, median and standard deviation of the results are used for the comparison. Finally, the ensemble aggregation approach is tested. The results show that simple and popular multi-layer perceptron neural networks are in most cases not outperformed by more complex and advanced models. The choice of neural network is dependent on the way the models are compared. This may be a warning for anyone who wish to promote own models, that their superiority should be verified in different ways. The best results are obtained when mean, maximum and minimum daily air temperatures from the previous days are used as inputs, together with the current runoff and declination of the Sun from two recent days. The ensemble aggregation approach allows reducing the mean square error up to several percent, depending on the case, and noticeably diminishes differences in modelling performance obtained by various neural network types.

EnsembleGraph: Interactive Visual Analysis of Spatial-Temporal Behavior for Ensemble Simulation Data

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Shu, Qingya; Guo, Hanqi; Che, Limei; Yuan, Xiaoru; Liu, Junfeng; Liang, Jie

2016-04-19

We present a novel visualization framework—EnsembleGraph— for analyzing ensemble simulation data, in order to help scientists understand behavior similarities between ensemble members over space and time. A graph-based representation is used to visualize individual spatiotemporal regions with similar behaviors, which are extracted by hierarchical clustering algorithms. A user interface with multiple-linked views is provided, which enables users to explore, locate, and compare regions that have similar behaviors between and then users can investigate and analyze the selected regions in detail. The driving application of this paper is the studies on regional emission influences over tropospheric ozone, which is based on ensemble simulations conducted with different anthropogenic emission absences using the MOZART-4 (model of ozone and related tracers, version 4) model. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our method by visualizing the MOZART-4 ensemble simulation data and evaluating the relative regional emission influences on tropospheric ozone concentrations. Positive feedbacks from domain experts and two case studies prove efficiency of our method.

Ensemble based system for whole-slide prostate cancer probability mapping using color texture features.

LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

DiFranco, Matthew D

2011-01-01

We present a tile-based approach for producing clinically relevant probability maps of prostatic carcinoma in histological sections from radical prostatectomy. Our methodology incorporates ensemble learning for feature selection and classification on expert-annotated images. Random forest feature selection performed over varying training sets provides a subset of generalized CIEL*a*b* co-occurrence texture features, while sample selection strategies with minimal constraints reduce training data requirements to achieve reliable results. Ensembles of classifiers are built using expert-annotated tiles from training images, and scores for the probability of cancer presence are calculated from the responses of each classifier in the ensemble. Spatial filtering of tile-based texture features prior to classification results in increased heat-map coherence as well as AUC values of 95% using ensembles of either random forests or support vector machines. Our approach is designed for adaptation to different imaging modalities, image features, and histological decision domains.

Ensemble-based flash-flood modelling: Taking into account hydrodynamic parameters and initial soil moisture uncertainties

Science.gov (United States)

Edouard, Simon; Vincendon, Béatrice; Ducrocq, Véronique

2018-05-01

Intense precipitation events in the Mediterranean often lead to devastating flash floods (FF). FF modelling is affected by several kinds of uncertainties and Hydrological Ensemble Prediction Systems (HEPS) are designed to take those uncertainties into account. The major source of uncertainty comes from rainfall forcing and convective-scale meteorological ensemble prediction systems can manage it for forecasting purpose. But other sources are related to the hydrological modelling part of the HEPS. This study focuses on the uncertainties arising from the hydrological model parameters and initial soil moisture with aim to design an ensemble-based version of an hydrological model dedicated to Mediterranean fast responding rivers simulations, the ISBA-TOP coupled system. The first step consists in identifying the parameters that have the strongest influence on FF simulations by assuming perfect precipitation. A sensitivity study is carried out first using a synthetic framework and then for several real events and several catchments. Perturbation methods varying the most sensitive parameters as well as initial soil moisture allow designing an ensemble-based version of ISBA-TOP. The first results of this system on some real events are presented. The direct perspective of this work will be to drive this ensemble-based version with the members of a convective-scale meteorological ensemble prediction system to design a complete HEPS for FF forecasting.

Efficient Pruning Method for Ensemble Self-Generating Neural Networks

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Hirotaka Inoue

2003-12-01

Full Text Available Recently, multiple classifier systems (MCS have been used for practical applications to improve classification accuracy. Self-generating neural networks (SGNN are one of the suitable base-classifiers for MCS because of their simple setting and fast learning. However, the computation cost of the MCS increases in proportion to the number of SGNN. In this paper, we propose an efficient pruning method for the structure of the SGNN in the MCS. We compare the pruned MCS with two sampling methods. Experiments have been conducted to compare the pruned MCS with an unpruned MCS, the MCS based on C4.5, and k-nearest neighbor method. The results show that the pruned MCS can improve its classification accuracy as well as reducing the computation cost.

Sleep-Dependent Reactivation of Ensembles in Motor Cortex Promotes Skill Consolidation.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Dhakshin S Ramanathan

Full Text Available Despite many prior studies demonstrating offline behavioral gains in motor skills after sleep, the underlying neural mechanisms remain poorly understood. To investigate the neurophysiological basis for offline gains, we performed single-unit recordings in motor cortex as rats learned a skilled upper-limb task. We found that sleep improved movement speed with preservation of accuracy. These offline improvements were linked to both replay of task-related ensembles during non-rapid eye movement (NREM sleep and temporal shifts that more tightly bound motor cortical ensembles to movements; such offline gains and temporal shifts were not evident with sleep restriction. Interestingly, replay was linked to the coincidence of slow-wave events and bursts of spindle activity. Neurons that experienced the most consistent replay also underwent the most significant temporal shift and binding to the motor task. Significantly, replay and the associated performance gains after sleep only occurred when animals first learned the skill; continued practice during later stages of learning (i.e., after motor kinematics had stabilized did not show evidence of replay. Our results highlight how replay of synchronous neural activity during sleep mediates large-scale neural plasticity and stabilizes kinematics during early motor learning.

Improving sub-pixel imperviousness change prediction by ensembling heterogeneous non-linear regression models

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Drzewiecki, Wojciech

2016-12-01

In this work nine non-linear regression models were compared for sub-pixel impervious surface area mapping from Landsat images. The comparison was done in three study areas both for accuracy of imperviousness coverage evaluation in individual points in time and accuracy of imperviousness change assessment. The performance of individual machine learning algorithms (Cubist, Random Forest, stochastic gradient boosting of regression trees, k-nearest neighbors regression, random k-nearest neighbors regression, Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines, averaged neural networks, and support vector machines with polynomial and radial kernels) was also compared with the performance of heterogeneous model ensembles constructed from the best models trained using particular techniques. The results proved that in case of sub-pixel evaluation the most accurate prediction of change may not necessarily be based on the most accurate individual assessments. When single methods are considered, based on obtained results Cubist algorithm may be advised for Landsat based mapping of imperviousness for single dates. However, Random Forest may be endorsed when the most reliable evaluation of imperviousness change is the primary goal. It gave lower accuracies for individual assessments, but better prediction of change due to more correlated errors of individual predictions. Heterogeneous model ensembles performed for individual time points assessments at least as well as the best individual models. In case of imperviousness change assessment the ensembles always outperformed single model approaches. It means that it is possible to improve the accuracy of sub-pixel imperviousness change assessment using ensembles of heterogeneous non-linear regression models.

Towards a GME ensemble forecasting system: Ensemble initialization using the breeding technique

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jan D. Keller

2008-12-01

Full Text Available The quantitative forecast of precipitation requires a probabilistic background particularly with regard to forecast lead times of more than 3 days. As only ensemble simulations can provide useful information of the underlying probability density function, we built a new ensemble forecasting system (GME-EFS based on the GME model of the German Meteorological Service (DWD. For the generation of appropriate initial ensemble perturbations we chose the breeding technique developed by Toth and Kalnay (1993, 1997, which develops perturbations by estimating the regions of largest model error induced uncertainty. This method is applied and tested in the framework of quasi-operational forecasts for a three month period in 2007. The performance of the resulting ensemble forecasts are compared to the operational ensemble prediction systems ECMWF EPS and NCEP GFS by means of ensemble spread of free atmosphere parameters (geopotential and temperature and ensemble skill of precipitation forecasting. This comparison indicates that the GME ensemble forecasting system (GME-EFS provides reasonable forecasts with spread skill score comparable to that of the NCEP GFS. An analysis with the continuous ranked probability score exhibits a lack of resolution for the GME forecasts compared to the operational ensembles. However, with significant enhancements during the 3 month test period, the first results of our work with the GME-EFS indicate possibilities for further development as well as the potential for later operational usage.

Improved Discriminability of Spatiotemporal Neural Patterns in Rat Motor Cortical Areas as Directional Choice Learning Progresses

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Hongwei eMao

2015-03-01

Full Text Available Animals learn to choose a proper action among alternatives to improve their odds of success in food foraging and other activities critical for survival. Through trial-and-error, they learn correct associations between their choices and external stimuli. While a neural network that underlies such learning process has been identified at a high level, it is still unclear how individual neurons and a neural ensemble adapt as learning progresses. In this study, we monitored the activity of single units in the rat medial and lateral agranular (AGm and AGl, respectively areas as rats learned to make a left or right side lever press in response to a left or right side light cue. We noticed that rat movement parameters during the performance of the directional choice task quickly became stereotyped during the first 2-3 days or sessions. But learning the directional choice problem took weeks to occur. Accompanying rats’ behavioral performance adaptation, we observed neural modulation by directional choice in recorded single units. Our analysis shows that ensemble mean firing rates in the cue-on period did not change significantly as learning progressed, and the ensemble mean rate difference between left and right side choices did not show a clear trend of change either. However, the spatiotemporal firing patterns of the neural ensemble exhibited improved discriminability between the two directional choices through learning. These results suggest a spatiotemporal neural coding scheme in a motor cortical neural ensemble that may be responsible for and contributing to learning the directional choice task.

Ensembl 2017

OpenAIRE

Aken, Bronwen L.; Achuthan, Premanand; Akanni, Wasiu; Amode, M. Ridwan; Bernsdorff, Friederike; Bhai, Jyothish; Billis, Konstantinos; Carvalho-Silva, Denise; Cummins, Carla; Clapham, Peter; Gil, Laurent; Gir?n, Carlos Garc?a; Gordon, Leo; Hourlier, Thibaut; Hunt, Sarah E.

2016-01-01

Ensembl (www.ensembl.org) is a database and genome browser for enabling research on vertebrate genomes. We import, analyse, curate and integrate a diverse collection of large-scale reference data to create a more comprehensive view of genome biology than would be possible from any individual dataset. Our extensive data resources include evidence-based gene and regulatory region annotation, genome variation and gene trees. An accompanying suite of tools, infrastructure and programmatic access ...

Generic Learning-Based Ensemble Framework for Small Sample Size Face Recognition in Multi-Camera Networks.

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Zhang, Cuicui; Liang, Xuefeng; Matsuyama, Takashi

2014-12-08

Multi-camera networks have gained great interest in video-based surveillance systems for security monitoring, access control, etc. Person re-identification is an essential and challenging task in multi-camera networks, which aims to determine if a given individual has already appeared over the camera network. Individual recognition often uses faces as a trial and requires a large number of samples during the training phrase. This is difficult to fulfill due to the limitation of the camera hardware system and the unconstrained image capturing conditions. Conventional face recognition algorithms often encounter the "small sample size" (SSS) problem arising from the small number of training samples compared to the high dimensionality of the sample space. To overcome this problem, interest in the combination of multiple base classifiers has sparked research efforts in ensemble methods. However, existing ensemble methods still open two questions: (1) how to define diverse base classifiers from the small data; (2) how to avoid the diversity/accuracy dilemma occurring during ensemble. To address these problems, this paper proposes a novel generic learning-based ensemble framework, which augments the small data by generating new samples based on a generic distribution and introduces a tailored 0-1 knapsack algorithm to alleviate the diversity/accuracy dilemma. More diverse base classifiers can be generated from the expanded face space, and more appropriate base classifiers are selected for ensemble. Extensive experimental results on four benchmarks demonstrate the higher ability of our system to cope with the SSS problem compared to the state-of-the-art system.

Generic Learning-Based Ensemble Framework for Small Sample Size Face Recognition in Multi-Camera Networks

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Cuicui Zhang

2014-12-01

Full Text Available Multi-camera networks have gained great interest in video-based surveillance systems for security monitoring, access control, etc. Person re-identification is an essential and challenging task in multi-camera networks, which aims to determine if a given individual has already appeared over the camera network. Individual recognition often uses faces as a trial and requires a large number of samples during the training phrase. This is difficult to fulfill due to the limitation of the camera hardware system and the unconstrained image capturing conditions. Conventional face recognition algorithms often encounter the “small sample size” (SSS problem arising from the small number of training samples compared to the high dimensionality of the sample space. To overcome this problem, interest in the combination of multiple base classifiers has sparked research efforts in ensemble methods. However, existing ensemble methods still open two questions: (1 how to define diverse base classifiers from the small data; (2 how to avoid the diversity/accuracy dilemma occurring during ensemble. To address these problems, this paper proposes a novel generic learning-based ensemble framework, which augments the small data by generating new samples based on a generic distribution and introduces a tailored 0–1 knapsack algorithm to alleviate the diversity/accuracy dilemma. More diverse base classifiers can be generated from the expanded face space, and more appropriate base classifiers are selected for ensemble. Extensive experimental results on four benchmarks demonstrate the higher ability of our system to cope with the SSS problem compared to the state-of-the-art system.

Deep learning ensemble with asymptotic techniques for oscillometric blood pressure estimation.

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Lee, Soojeong; Chang, Joon-Hyuk

2017-11-01

This paper proposes a deep learning based ensemble regression estimator with asymptotic techniques, and offers a method that can decrease uncertainty for oscillometric blood pressure (BP) measurements using the bootstrap and Monte-Carlo approach. While the former is used to estimate SBP and DBP, the latter attempts to determine confidence intervals (CIs) for SBP and DBP based on oscillometric BP measurements. This work originally employs deep belief networks (DBN)-deep neural networks (DNN) to effectively estimate BPs based on oscillometric measurements. However, there are some inherent problems with these methods. First, it is not easy to determine the best DBN-DNN estimator, and worthy information might be omitted when selecting one DBN-DNN estimator and discarding the others. Additionally, our input feature vectors, obtained from only five measurements per subject, represent a very small sample size; this is a critical weakness when using the DBN-DNN technique and can cause overfitting or underfitting, depending on the structure of the algorithm. To address these problems, an ensemble with an asymptotic approach (based on combining the bootstrap with the DBN-DNN technique) is utilized to generate the pseudo features needed to estimate the SBP and DBP. In the first stage, the bootstrap-aggregation technique is used to create ensemble parameters. Afterward, the AdaBoost approach is employed for the second-stage SBP and DBP estimation. We then use the bootstrap and Monte-Carlo techniques in order to determine the CIs based on the target BP estimated using the DBN-DNN ensemble regression estimator with the asymptotic technique in the third stage. The proposed method can mitigate the estimation uncertainty such as large the standard deviation of error (SDE) on comparing the proposed DBN-DNN ensemble regression estimator with the DBN-DNN single regression estimator, we identify that the SDEs of the SBP and DBP are reduced by 0.58 and 0.57  mmHg, respectively. These

Harnessing Disordered-Ensemble Quantum Dynamics for Machine Learning

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Fujii, Keisuke; Nakajima, Kohei

2017-08-01

The quantum computer has an amazing potential of fast information processing. However, the realization of a digital quantum computer is still a challenging problem requiring highly accurate controls and key application strategies. Here we propose a platform, quantum reservoir computing, to solve these issues successfully by exploiting the natural quantum dynamics of ensemble systems, which are ubiquitous in laboratories nowadays, for machine learning. This framework enables ensemble quantum systems to universally emulate nonlinear dynamical systems including classical chaos. A number of numerical experiments show that quantum systems consisting of 5-7 qubits possess computational capabilities comparable to conventional recurrent neural networks of 100-500 nodes. This discovery opens up a paradigm for information processing with artificial intelligence powered by quantum physics.

Skill prediction of local weather forecasts based on the ECMWF ensemble

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C. Ziehmann

2001-01-01

Full Text Available Ensemble Prediction has become an essential part of numerical weather forecasting. In this paper we investigate the ability of ensemble forecasts to provide an a priori estimate of the expected forecast skill. Several quantities derived from the local ensemble distribution are investigated for a two year data set of European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF temperature and wind speed ensemble forecasts at 30 German stations. The results indicate that the population of the ensemble mode provides useful information for the uncertainty in temperature forecasts. The ensemble entropy is a similar good measure. This is not true for the spread if it is simply calculated as the variance of the ensemble members with respect to the ensemble mean. The number of clusters in the C regions is almost unrelated to the local skill. For wind forecasts, the results are less promising.

A Novel Ensemble Learning Approach for Corporate Financial Distress Forecasting in Fashion and Textiles Supply Chains

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Gang Xie

2013-01-01

Full Text Available This paper proposes a novel ensemble learning approach based on logistic regression (LR and artificial intelligence tool, that is, support vector machine (SVM and back-propagation neural networks (BPNN, for corporate financial distress forecasting in fashion and textiles supply chains. Firstly, related concepts of LR, SVM, and BPNN are introduced. Then, the forecasting results by LR are introduced into the SVM and BPNN techniques which can recognize the forecasting errors in fitness by LR. Moreover, empirical analysis of Chinese listed companies in fashion and textile sector is implemented for the comparison of the methods, and some related issues are discussed. The results suggest that the proposed novel ensemble learning approach can achieve higher forecasting performance than those of individual models.

Cluster-based analysis of multi-model climate ensembles

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Hyde, Richard; Hossaini, Ryan; Leeson, Amber A.

2018-06-01

Clustering - the automated grouping of similar data - can provide powerful and unique insight into large and complex data sets, in a fast and computationally efficient manner. While clustering has been used in a variety of fields (from medical image processing to economics), its application within atmospheric science has been fairly limited to date, and the potential benefits of the application of advanced clustering techniques to climate data (both model output and observations) has yet to be fully realised. In this paper, we explore the specific application of clustering to a multi-model climate ensemble. We hypothesise that clustering techniques can provide (a) a flexible, data-driven method of testing model-observation agreement and (b) a mechanism with which to identify model development priorities. We focus our analysis on chemistry-climate model (CCM) output of tropospheric ozone - an important greenhouse gas - from the recent Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP). Tropospheric column ozone from the ACCMIP ensemble was clustered using the Data Density based Clustering (DDC) algorithm. We find that a multi-model mean (MMM) calculated using members of the most-populous cluster identified at each location offers a reduction of up to ˜ 20 % in the global absolute mean bias between the MMM and an observed satellite-based tropospheric ozone climatology, with respect to a simple, all-model MMM. On a spatial basis, the bias is reduced at ˜ 62 % of all locations, with the largest bias reductions occurring in the Northern Hemisphere - where ozone concentrations are relatively large. However, the bias is unchanged at 9 % of all locations and increases at 29 %, particularly in the Southern Hemisphere. The latter demonstrates that although cluster-based subsampling acts to remove outlier model data, such data may in fact be closer to observed values in some locations. We further demonstrate that clustering can provide a viable and

Developing an Ensemble Prediction System based on COSMO-DE

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Theis, S.; Gebhardt, C.; Buchhold, M.; Ben Bouallègue, Z.; Ohl, R.; Paulat, M.; Peralta, C.

2010-09-01

The numerical weather prediction model COSMO-DE is a configuration of the COSMO model with a horizontal grid size of 2.8 km. It has been running operationally at DWD since 2007, it covers the area of Germany and produces forecasts with a lead time of 0-21 hours. The model COSMO-DE is convection-permitting, which means that it does without a parametrisation of deep convection and simulates deep convection explicitly. One aim is an improved forecast of convective heavy rain events. Convection-permitting models are in operational use at several weather services, but currently not in ensemble mode. It is expected that an ensemble system could reveal the advantages of a convection-permitting model even better. The probabilistic approach is necessary, because the explicit simulation of convective processes for more than a few hours cannot be viewed as a deterministic forecast anymore. This is due to the chaotic behaviour and short life cycle of the processes which are simulated explicitly now. In the framework of the project COSMO-DE-EPS, DWD is developing and implementing an ensemble prediction system (EPS) for the model COSMO-DE. The project COSMO-DE-EPS comprises the generation of ensemble members, as well as the verification and visualization of the ensemble forecasts and also statistical postprocessing. A pre-operational mode of the EPS with 20 ensemble members is foreseen to start in 2010. Operational use is envisaged to start in 2012, after an upgrade to 40 members and inclusion of statistical postprocessing. The presentation introduces the project COSMO-DE-EPS and describes the design of the ensemble as it is planned for the pre-operational mode. In particular, the currently implemented method for the generation of ensemble members will be explained and discussed. The method includes variations of initial conditions, lateral boundary conditions, and model physics. At present, pragmatic methods are applied which resemble the basic ideas of a multi-model approach

Three-dimensional theory of quantum memories based on Λ-type atomic ensembles

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zeuthen, Emil; Grodecka-Grad, Anna; Soerensen, Anders S.

2011-01-01

We develop a three-dimensional theory for quantum memories based on light storage in ensembles of Λ-type atoms, where two long-lived atomic ground states are employed. We consider light storage in an ensemble of finite spatial extent and we show that within the paraxial approximation the Fresnel number of the atomic ensemble and the optical depth are the only important physical parameters determining the quality of the quantum memory. We analyze the influence of these parameters on the storage of light followed by either forward or backward read-out from the quantum memory. We show that for small Fresnel numbers the forward memory provides higher efficiencies, whereas for large Fresnel numbers the backward memory is advantageous. The optimal light modes to store in the memory are presented together with the corresponding spin waves and outcoming light modes. We show that for high optical depths such Λ-type atomic ensembles allow for highly efficient backward and forward memories even for small Fresnel numbers F(greater-or-similar sign)0.1.

An empirical study of ensemble-based semi-supervised learning approaches for imbalanced splice site datasets.

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Stanescu, Ana; Caragea, Doina

2015-01-01

Recent biochemical advances have led to inexpensive, time-efficient production of massive volumes of raw genomic data. Traditional machine learning approaches to genome annotation typically rely on large amounts of labeled data. The process of labeling data can be expensive, as it requires domain knowledge and expert involvement. Semi-supervised learning approaches that can make use of unlabeled data, in addition to small amounts of labeled data, can help reduce the costs associated with labeling. In this context, we focus on the problem of predicting splice sites in a genome using semi-supervised learning approaches. This is a challenging problem, due to the highly imbalanced distribution of the data, i.e., small number of splice sites as compared to the number of non-splice sites. To address this challenge, we propose to use ensembles of semi-supervised classifiers, specifically self-training and co-training classifiers. Our experiments on five highly imbalanced splice site datasets, with positive to negative ratios of 1-to-99, showed that the ensemble-based semi-supervised approaches represent a good choice, even when the amount of labeled data consists of less than 1% of all training data. In particular, we found that ensembles of co-training and self-training classifiers that dynamically balance the set of labeled instances during the semi-supervised iterations show improvements over the corresponding supervised ensemble baselines. In the presence of limited amounts of labeled data, ensemble-based semi-supervised approaches can successfully leverage the unlabeled data to enhance supervised ensembles learned from highly imbalanced data distributions. Given that such distributions are common for many biological sequence classification problems, our work can be seen as a stepping stone towards more sophisticated ensemble-based approaches to biological sequence annotation in a semi-supervised framework.

Ensemble learning in fixed expansion layer networks for mitigating catastrophic forgetting.

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Coop, Robert; Mishtal, Aaron; Arel, Itamar

2013-10-01

Catastrophic forgetting is a well-studied attribute of most parameterized supervised learning systems. A variation of this phenomenon, in the context of feedforward neural networks, arises when nonstationary inputs lead to loss of previously learned mappings. The majority of the schemes proposed in the literature for mitigating catastrophic forgetting were not data driven and did not scale well. We introduce the fixed expansion layer (FEL) feedforward neural network, which embeds a sparsely encoding hidden layer to help mitigate forgetting of prior learned representations. In addition, we investigate a novel framework for training ensembles of FEL networks, based on exploiting an information-theoretic measure of diversity between FEL learners, to further control undesired plasticity. The proposed methodology is demonstrated on a basic classification task, clearly emphasizing its advantages over existing techniques. The architecture proposed can be enhanced to address a range of computational intelligence tasks, such as regression problems and system control.

Ensemble-based data assimilation and optimal sensor placement for scalar source reconstruction

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Mons, Vincent; Wang, Qi; Zaki, Tamer

2017-11-01

Reconstructing the characteristics of a scalar source from limited remote measurements in a turbulent flow is a problem of great interest for environmental monitoring, and is challenging due to several aspects. Firstly, the numerical estimation of the scalar dispersion in a turbulent flow requires significant computational resources. Secondly, in actual practice, only a limited number of observations are available, which generally makes the corresponding inverse problem ill-posed. Ensemble-based variational data assimilation techniques are adopted to solve the problem of scalar source localization in a turbulent channel flow at Reτ = 180 . This approach combines the components of variational data assimilation and ensemble Kalman filtering, and inherits the robustness from the former and the ease of implementation from the latter. An ensemble-based methodology for optimal sensor placement is also proposed in order to improve the condition of the inverse problem, which enhances the performances of the data assimilation scheme. This work has been partially funded by the Office of Naval Research (Grant N00014-16-1-2542) and by the National Science Foundation (Grant 1461870).

On evaluation of ensemble precipitation forecasts with observation-based ensembles

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

S. Jaun

2007-04-01

Full Text Available Spatial interpolation of precipitation data is uncertain. How important is this uncertainty and how can it be considered in evaluation of high-resolution probabilistic precipitation forecasts? These questions are discussed by experimental evaluation of the COSMO consortium's limited-area ensemble prediction system COSMO-LEPS. The applied performance measure is the often used Brier skill score (BSS. The observational references in the evaluation are (a analyzed rain gauge data by ordinary Kriging and (b ensembles of interpolated rain gauge data by stochastic simulation. This permits the consideration of either a deterministic reference (the event is observed or not with 100% certainty or a probabilistic reference that makes allowance for uncertainties in spatial averaging. The evaluation experiments show that the evaluation uncertainties are substantial even for the large area (41 300 km2 of Switzerland with a mean rain gauge distance as good as 7 km: the one- to three-day precipitation forecasts have skill decreasing with forecast lead time but the one- and two-day forecast performances differ not significantly.

Ensemble Learning or Deep Learning? Application to Default Risk Analysis

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Shigeyuki Hamori

2018-03-01

Full Text Available Proper credit-risk management is essential for lending institutions, as substantial losses can be incurred when borrowers default. Consequently, statistical methods that can measure and analyze credit risk objectively are becoming increasingly important. This study analyzes default payment data and compares the prediction accuracy and classification ability of three ensemble-learning methods—specifically, bagging, random forest, and boosting—with those of various neural-network methods, each of which has a different activation function. The results obtained indicate that the classification ability of boosting is superior to other machine-learning methods including neural networks. It is also found that the performance of neural-network models depends on the choice of activation function, the number of middle layers, and the inclusion of dropout.

The Ensembl REST API: Ensembl Data for Any Language.

Science.gov (United States)

Yates, Andrew; Beal, Kathryn; Keenan, Stephen; McLaren, William; Pignatelli, Miguel; Ritchie, Graham R S; Ruffier, Magali; Taylor, Kieron; Vullo, Alessandro; Flicek, Paul

2015-01-01

We present a Web service to access Ensembl data using Representational State Transfer (REST). The Ensembl REST server enables the easy retrieval of a wide range of Ensembl data by most programming languages, using standard formats such as JSON and FASTA while minimizing client work. We also introduce bindings to the popular Ensembl Variant Effect Predictor tool permitting large-scale programmatic variant analysis independent of any specific programming language. The Ensembl REST API can be accessed at http://rest.ensembl.org and source code is freely available under an Apache 2.0 license from http://github.com/Ensembl/ensembl-rest. © The Author 2014. Published by Oxford University Press.

A target recognition method for maritime surveillance radars based on hybrid ensemble selection

Science.gov (United States)

Fan, Xueman; Hu, Shengliang; He, Jingbo

2017-11-01

In order to improve the generalisation ability of the maritime surveillance radar, a novel ensemble selection technique, termed Optimisation and Dynamic Selection (ODS), is proposed. During the optimisation phase, the non-dominated sorting genetic algorithm II for multi-objective optimisation is used to find the Pareto front, i.e. a set of ensembles of classifiers representing different tradeoffs between the classification error and diversity. During the dynamic selection phase, the meta-learning method is used to predict whether a candidate ensemble is competent enough to classify a query instance based on three different aspects, namely, feature space, decision space and the extent of consensus. The classification performance and time complexity of ODS are compared against nine other ensemble methods using a self-built full polarimetric high resolution range profile data-set. The experimental results clearly show the effectiveness of ODS. In addition, the influence of the selection of diversity measures is studied concurrently.

Evaluation of medium-range ensemble flood forecasting based on calibration strategies and ensemble methods in Lanjiang Basin, Southeast China

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, Li; Gao, Chao; Xuan, Weidong; Xu, Yue-Ping

2017-11-01

Ensemble flood forecasts by hydrological models using numerical weather prediction products as forcing data are becoming more commonly used in operational flood forecasting applications. In this study, a hydrological ensemble flood forecasting system comprised of an automatically calibrated Variable Infiltration Capacity model and quantitative precipitation forecasts from TIGGE dataset is constructed for Lanjiang Basin, Southeast China. The impacts of calibration strategies and ensemble methods on the performance of the system are then evaluated. The hydrological model is optimized by the parallel programmed ε-NSGA II multi-objective algorithm. According to the solutions by ε-NSGA II, two differently parameterized models are determined to simulate daily flows and peak flows at each of the three hydrological stations. Then a simple yet effective modular approach is proposed to combine these daily and peak flows at the same station into one composite series. Five ensemble methods and various evaluation metrics are adopted. The results show that ε-NSGA II can provide an objective determination on parameter estimation, and the parallel program permits a more efficient simulation. It is also demonstrated that the forecasts from ECMWF have more favorable skill scores than other Ensemble Prediction Systems. The multimodel ensembles have advantages over all the single model ensembles and the multimodel methods weighted on members and skill scores outperform other methods. Furthermore, the overall performance at three stations can be satisfactory up to ten days, however the hydrological errors can degrade the skill score by approximately 2 days, and the influence persists until a lead time of 10 days with a weakening trend. With respect to peak flows selected by the Peaks Over Threshold approach, the ensemble means from single models or multimodels are generally underestimated, indicating that the ensemble mean can bring overall improvement in forecasting of flows. For

The role of ensemble-based statistics in variational assimilation of cloud-affected observations from infrared imagers

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Hacker, Joshua; Vandenberghe, Francois; Jung, Byoung-Jo; Snyder, Chris

2017-04-01

Effective assimilation of cloud-affected radiance observations from space-borne imagers, with the aim of improving cloud analysis and forecasting, has proven to be difficult. Large observation biases, nonlinear observation operators, and non-Gaussian innovation statistics present many challenges. Ensemble-variational data assimilation (EnVar) systems offer the benefits of flow-dependent background error statistics from an ensemble, and the ability of variational minimization to handle nonlinearity. The specific benefits of ensemble statistics, relative to static background errors more commonly used in variational systems, have not been quantified for the problem of assimilating cloudy radiances. A simple experiment framework is constructed with a regional NWP model and operational variational data assimilation system, to provide the basis understanding the importance of ensemble statistics in cloudy radiance assimilation. Restricting the observations to those corresponding to clouds in the background forecast leads to innovations that are more Gaussian. The number of large innovations is reduced compared to the more general case of all observations, but not eliminated. The Huber norm is investigated to handle the fat tails of the distributions, and allow more observations to be assimilated without the need for strict background checks that eliminate them. Comparing assimilation using only ensemble background error statistics with assimilation using only static background error statistics elucidates the importance of the ensemble statistics. Although the cost functions in both experiments converge to similar values after sufficient outer-loop iterations, the resulting cloud water, ice, and snow content are greater in the ensemble-based analysis. The subsequent forecasts from the ensemble-based analysis also retain more condensed water species, indicating that the local environment is more supportive of clouds. In this presentation we provide details that explain the

Creating Weather System Ensembles Through Synergistic Process Modeling and Machine Learning

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Chen, B.; Posselt, D. J.; Nguyen, H.; Wu, L.; Su, H.; Braverman, A. J.

2017-12-01

Earth's weather and climate are sensitive to a variety of control factors (e.g., initial state, forcing functions, etc). Characterizing the response of the atmosphere to a change in initial conditions or model forcing is critical for weather forecasting (ensemble prediction) and climate change assessment. Input - response relationships can be quantified by generating an ensemble of multiple (100s to 1000s) realistic realizations of weather and climate states. Atmospheric numerical models generate simulated data through discretized numerical approximation of the partial differential equations (PDEs) governing the underlying physics. However, the computational expense of running high resolution atmospheric state models makes generation of more than a few simulations infeasible. Here, we discuss an experiment wherein we approximate the numerical PDE solver within the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model using neural networks trained on a subset of model run outputs. Once trained, these neural nets can produce large number of realization of weather states from a small number of deterministic simulations with speeds that are orders of magnitude faster than the underlying PDE solver. Our neural network architecture is inspired by the governing partial differential equations. These equations are location-invariant, and consist of first and second derivations. As such, we use a 3x3 lon-lat grid of atmospheric profiles as the predictor in the neural net to provide the network the information necessary to compute the first and second moments. Results indicate that the neural network algorithm can approximate the PDE outputs with high degree of accuracy (less than 1% error), and that this error increases as a function of the prediction time lag.

Identifying Different Transportation Modes from Trajectory Data Using Tree-Based Ensemble Classifiers

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Zhibin Xiao

2017-02-01

Full Text Available Recognition of transportation modes can be used in different applications including human behavior research, transport management and traffic control. Previous work on transportation mode recognition has often relied on using multiple sensors or matching Geographic Information System (GIS information, which is not possible in many cases. In this paper, an approach based on ensemble learning is proposed to infer hybrid transportation modes using only Global Position System (GPS data. First, in order to distinguish between different transportation modes, we used a statistical method to generate global features and extract several local features from sub-trajectories after trajectory segmentation, before these features were combined in the classification stage. Second, to obtain a better performance, we used tree-based ensemble models (Random Forest, Gradient Boosting Decision Tree, and XGBoost instead of traditional methods (K-Nearest Neighbor, Decision Tree, and Support Vector Machines to classify the different transportation modes. The experiment results on the later have shown the efficacy of our proposed approach. Among them, the XGBoost model produced the best performance with a classification accuracy of 90.77% obtained on the GEOLIFE dataset, and we used a tree-based ensemble method to ensure accurate feature selection to reduce the model complexity.

A Machine Learning Ensemble Classifier for Early Prediction of Diabetic Retinopathy.

Science.gov (United States)

S K, Somasundaram; P, Alli

2017-11-09

The main complication of diabetes is Diabetic retinopathy (DR), retinal vascular disease and it leads to the blindness. Regular screening for early DR disease detection is considered as an intensive labor and resource oriented task. Therefore, automatic detection of DR diseases is performed only by using the computational technique is the great solution. An automatic method is more reliable to determine the presence of an abnormality in Fundus images (FI) but, the classification process is poorly performed. Recently, few research works have been designed for analyzing texture discrimination capacity in FI to distinguish the healthy images. However, the feature extraction (FE) process was not performed well, due to the high dimensionality. Therefore, to identify retinal features for DR disease diagnosis and early detection using Machine Learning and Ensemble Classification method, called, Machine Learning Bagging Ensemble Classifier (ML-BEC) is designed. The ML-BEC method comprises of two stages. The first stage in ML-BEC method comprises extraction of the candidate objects from Retinal Images (RI). The candidate objects or the features for DR disease diagnosis include blood vessels, optic nerve, neural tissue, neuroretinal rim, optic disc size, thickness and variance. These features are initially extracted by applying Machine Learning technique called, t-distributed Stochastic Neighbor Embedding (t-SNE). Besides, t-SNE generates a probability distribution across high-dimensional images where the images are separated into similar and dissimilar pairs. Then, t-SNE describes a similar probability distribution across the points in the low-dimensional map. This lessens the Kullback-Leibler divergence among two distributions regarding the locations of the points on the map. The second stage comprises of application of ensemble classifiers to the extracted features for providing accurate analysis of digital FI using machine learning. In this stage, an automatic detection

An Ensemble Learning Based Framework for Traditional Chinese Medicine Data Analysis with ICD-10 Labels

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Gang Zhang

2015-01-01

Full Text Available Objective. This study aims to establish a model to analyze clinical experience of TCM veteran doctors. We propose an ensemble learning based framework to analyze clinical records with ICD-10 labels information for effective diagnosis and acupoints recommendation. Methods. We propose an ensemble learning framework for the analysis task. A set of base learners composed of decision tree (DT and support vector machine (SVM are trained by bootstrapping the training dataset. The base learners are sorted by accuracy and diversity through nondominated sort (NDS algorithm and combined through a deep ensemble learning strategy. Results. We evaluate the proposed method with comparison to two currently successful methods on a clinical diagnosis dataset with manually labeled ICD-10 information. ICD-10 label annotation and acupoints recommendation are evaluated for three methods. The proposed method achieves an accuracy rate of 88.2%  ±  2.8% measured by zero-one loss for the first evaluation session and 79.6%  ±  3.6% measured by Hamming loss, which are superior to the other two methods. Conclusion. The proposed ensemble model can effectively model the implied knowledge and experience in historic clinical data records. The computational cost of training a set of base learners is relatively low.

Comparison of different artificial neural network architectures in modeling of Chlorella sp. flocculation.

Science.gov (United States)

Zenooz, Alireza Moosavi; Ashtiani, Farzin Zokaee; Ranjbar, Reza; Nikbakht, Fatemeh; Bolouri, Oberon

2017-07-03

Biodiesel production from microalgae feedstock should be performed after growth and harvesting of the cells, and the most feasible method for harvesting and dewatering of microalgae is flocculation. Flocculation modeling can be used for evaluation and prediction of its performance under different affective parameters. However, the modeling of flocculation in microalgae is not simple and has not performed yet, under all experimental conditions, mostly due to different behaviors of microalgae cells during the process under different flocculation conditions. In the current study, the modeling of microalgae flocculation is studied with different neural network architectures. Microalgae species, Chlorella sp., was flocculated with ferric chloride under different conditions and then the experimental data modeled using artificial neural network. Neural network architectures of multilayer perceptron (MLP) and radial basis function architectures, failed to predict the targets successfully, though, modeling was effective with ensemble architecture of MLP networks. Comparison between the performances of the ensemble and each individual network explains the ability of the ensemble architecture in microalgae flocculation modeling.

Research on Fault Diagnosis Method Based on Rule Base Neural Network

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Zheng Ni

2017-01-01

Full Text Available The relationship between fault phenomenon and fault cause is always nonlinear, which influences the accuracy of fault location. And neural network is effective in dealing with nonlinear problem. In order to improve the efficiency of uncertain fault diagnosis based on neural network, a neural network fault diagnosis method based on rule base is put forward. At first, the structure of BP neural network is built and the learning rule is given. Then, the rule base is built by fuzzy theory. An improved fuzzy neural construction model is designed, in which the calculated methods of node function and membership function are also given. Simulation results confirm the effectiveness of this method.

Ensemble-based forecasting at Horns Rev: Ensemble conversion and kernel dressing

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Pinson, Pierre; Madsen, Henrik

. The obtained ensemble forecasts of wind power are then converted into predictive distributions with an original adaptive kernel dressing method. The shape of the kernels is driven by a mean-variance model, the parameters of which are recursively estimated in order to maximize the overall skill of obtained...

Connecting a connectome to behavior: an ensemble of neuroanatomical models of C. elegans klinotaxis.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Eduardo J Izquierdo

Full Text Available Increased efforts in the assembly and analysis of connectome data are providing new insights into the principles underlying the connectivity of neural circuits. However, despite these considerable advances in connectomics, neuroanatomical data must be integrated with neurophysiological and behavioral data in order to obtain a complete picture of neural function. Due to its nearly complete wiring diagram and large behavioral repertoire, the nematode worm Caenorhaditis elegans is an ideal organism in which to explore in detail this link between neural connectivity and behavior. In this paper, we develop a neuroanatomically-grounded model of salt klinotaxis, a form of chemotaxis in which changes in orientation are directed towards the source through gradual continual adjustments. We identify a minimal klinotaxis circuit by systematically searching the C. elegans connectome for pathways linking chemosensory neurons to neck motor neurons, and prune the resulting network based on both experimental considerations and several simplifying assumptions. We then use an evolutionary algorithm to find possible values for the unknown electrophsyiological parameters in the network such that the behavioral performance of the entire model is optimized to match that of the animal. Multiple runs of the evolutionary algorithm produce an ensemble of such models. We analyze in some detail the mechanisms by which one of the best evolved circuits operates and characterize the similarities and differences between this mechanism and other solutions in the ensemble. Finally, we propose a series of experiments to determine which of these alternatives the worm may be using.

A new strategy for snow-cover mapping using remote sensing data and ensemble based systems techniques

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Roberge, S.; Chokmani, K.; De Sève, D.

2012-04-01

The snow cover plays an important role in the hydrological cycle of Quebec (Eastern Canada). Consequently, evaluating its spatial extent interests the authorities responsible for the management of water resources, especially hydropower companies. The main objective of this study is the development of a snow-cover mapping strategy using remote sensing data and ensemble based systems techniques. Planned to be tested in a near real-time operational mode, this snow-cover mapping strategy has the advantage to provide the probability of a pixel to be snow covered and its uncertainty. Ensemble systems are made of two key components. First, a method is needed to build an ensemble of classifiers that is diverse as much as possible. Second, an approach is required to combine the outputs of individual classifiers that make up the ensemble in such a way that correct decisions are amplified, and incorrect ones are cancelled out. In this study, we demonstrate the potential of ensemble systems to snow-cover mapping using remote sensing data. The chosen classifier is a sequential thresholds algorithm using NOAA-AVHRR data adapted to conditions over Eastern Canada. Its special feature is the use of a combination of six sequential thresholds varying according to the day in the winter season. Two versions of the snow-cover mapping algorithm have been developed: one is specific for autumn (from October 1st to December 31st) and the other for spring (from March 16th to May 31st). In order to build the ensemble based system, different versions of the algorithm are created by varying randomly its parameters. One hundred of the versions are included in the ensemble. The probability of a pixel to be snow, no-snow or cloud covered corresponds to the amount of votes the pixel has been classified as such by all classifiers. The overall performance of ensemble based mapping is compared to the overall performance of the chosen classifier, and also with ground observations at meteorological

Constructing Better Classifier Ensemble Based on Weighted Accuracy and Diversity Measure

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Xiaodong Zeng

2014-01-01

Full Text Available A weighted accuracy and diversity (WAD method is presented, a novel measure used to evaluate the quality of the classifier ensemble, assisting in the ensemble selection task. The proposed measure is motivated by a commonly accepted hypothesis; that is, a robust classifier ensemble should not only be accurate but also different from every other member. In fact, accuracy and diversity are mutual restraint factors; that is, an ensemble with high accuracy may have low diversity, and an overly diverse ensemble may negatively affect accuracy. This study proposes a method to find the balance between accuracy and diversity that enhances the predictive ability of an ensemble for unknown data. The quality assessment for an ensemble is performed such that the final score is achieved by computing the harmonic mean of accuracy and diversity, where two weight parameters are used to balance them. The measure is compared to two representative measures, Kappa-Error and GenDiv, and two threshold measures that consider only accuracy or diversity, with two heuristic search algorithms, genetic algorithm, and forward hill-climbing algorithm, in ensemble selection tasks performed on 15 UCI benchmark datasets. The empirical results demonstrate that the WAD measure is superior to others in most cases.

A convection-allowing ensemble forecast based on the breeding growth mode and associated optimization of precipitation forecast

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Xiang; He, Hongrang; Chen, Chaohui; Miao, Ziqing; Bai, Shigang

2017-10-01

A convection-allowing ensemble forecast experiment on a squall line was conducted based on the breeding growth mode (BGM). Meanwhile, the probability matched mean (PMM) and neighborhood ensemble probability (NEP) methods were used to optimize the associated precipitation forecast. The ensemble forecast predicted the precipitation tendency accurately, which was closer to the observation than in the control forecast. For heavy rainfall, the precipitation center produced by the ensemble forecast was also better. The Fractions Skill Score (FSS) results indicated that the ensemble mean was skillful in light rainfall, while the PMM produced better probability distribution of precipitation for heavy rainfall. Preliminary results demonstrated that convection-allowing ensemble forecast could improve precipitation forecast skill through providing valuable probability forecasts. It is necessary to employ new methods, such as the PMM and NEP, to generate precipitation probability forecasts. Nonetheless, the lack of spread and the overprediction of precipitation by the ensemble members are still problems that need to be solved.

Ensemble-based prediction of RNA secondary structures.

Science.gov (United States)

Aghaeepour, Nima; Hoos, Holger H

2013-04-24

Accurate structure prediction methods play an important role for the understanding of RNA function. Energy-based, pseudoknot-free secondary structure prediction is one of the most widely used and versatile approaches, and improved methods for this task have received much attention over the past five years. Despite the impressive progress that as been achieved in this area, existing evaluations of the prediction accuracy achieved by various algorithms do not provide a comprehensive, statistically sound assessment. Furthermore, while there is increasing evidence that no prediction algorithm consistently outperforms all others, no work has been done to exploit the complementary strengths of multiple approaches. In this work, we present two contributions to the area of RNA secondary structure prediction. Firstly, we use state-of-the-art, resampling-based statistical methods together with a previously published and increasingly widely used dataset of high-quality RNA structures to conduct a comprehensive evaluation of existing RNA secondary structure prediction procedures. The results from this evaluation clarify the performance relationship between ten well-known existing energy-based pseudoknot-free RNA secondary structure prediction methods and clearly demonstrate the progress that has been achieved in recent years. Secondly, we introduce AveRNA, a generic and powerful method for combining a set of existing secondary structure prediction procedures into an ensemble-based method that achieves significantly higher prediction accuracies than obtained from any of its component procedures. Our new, ensemble-based method, AveRNA, improves the state of the art for energy-based, pseudoknot-free RNA secondary structure prediction by exploiting the complementary strengths of multiple existing prediction procedures, as demonstrated using a state-of-the-art statistical resampling approach. In addition, AveRNA allows an intuitive and effective control of the trade-off between

An ensemble classification approach for improved Land use/cover change detection

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Chellasamy, M.; Ferré, T. P. A.; Humlekrog Greve, M.; Larsen, R.; Chinnasamy, U.

2014-11-01

Change Detection (CD) methods based on post-classification comparison approaches are claimed to provide potentially reliable results. They are considered to be most obvious quantitative method in the analysis of Land Use Land Cover (LULC) changes which provides from - to change information. But, the performance of post-classification comparison approaches highly depends on the accuracy of classification of individual images used for comparison. Hence, we present a classification approach that produce accurate classified results which aids to obtain improved change detection results. Machine learning is a part of broader framework in change detection, where neural networks have drawn much attention. Neural network algorithms adaptively estimate continuous functions from input data without mathematical representation of output dependence on input. A common practice for classification is to use Multi-Layer-Perceptron (MLP) neural network with backpropogation learning algorithm for prediction. To increase the ability of learning and prediction, multiple inputs (spectral, texture, topography, and multi-temporal information) are generally stacked to incorporate diversity of information. On the other hand literatures claims backpropagation algorithm to exhibit weak and unstable learning in use of multiple inputs, while dealing with complex datasets characterized by mixed uncertainty levels. To address the problem of learning complex information, we propose an ensemble classification technique that incorporates multiple inputs for classification unlike traditional stacking of multiple input data. In this paper, we present an Endorsement Theory based ensemble classification that integrates multiple information, in terms of prediction probabilities, to produce final classification results. Three different input datasets are used in this study: spectral, texture and indices, from SPOT-4 multispectral imagery captured on 1998 and 2003. Each SPOT image is classified

Ensemble-based evaluation of extreme water levels for the eastern Baltic Sea

Science.gov (United States)

Eelsalu, Maris; Soomere, Tarmo

2016-04-01

The risks and damages associated with coastal flooding that are naturally associated with an increase in the magnitude of extreme storm surges are one of the largest concerns of countries with extensive low-lying nearshore areas. The relevant risks are even more contrast for semi-enclosed water bodies such as the Baltic Sea where subtidal (weekly-scale) variations in the water volume of the sea substantially contribute to the water level and lead to large spreading of projections of future extreme water levels. We explore the options for using large ensembles of projections to more reliably evaluate return periods of extreme water levels. Single projections of the ensemble are constructed by means of fitting several sets of block maxima with various extreme value distributions. The ensemble is based on two simulated data sets produced in the Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute. A hindcast by the Rossby Centre Ocean model is sampled with a resolution of 6 h and a similar hindcast by the circulation model NEMO with a resolution of 1 h. As the annual maxima of water levels in the Baltic Sea are not always uncorrelated, we employ maxima for calendar years and for stormy seasons. As the shape parameter of the Generalised Extreme Value distribution changes its sign and substantially varies in magnitude along the eastern coast of the Baltic Sea, the use of a single distribution for the entire coast is inappropriate. The ensemble involves projections based on the Generalised Extreme Value, Gumbel and Weibull distributions. The parameters of these distributions are evaluated using three different ways: maximum likelihood method and method of moments based on both biased and unbiased estimates. The total number of projections in the ensemble is 40. As some of the resulting estimates contain limited additional information, the members of pairs of projections that are highly correlated are assigned weights 0.6. A comparison of the ensemble-based projection of

The Drag-based Ensemble Model (DBEM) for Coronal Mass Ejection Propagation

Science.gov (United States)

Dumbović, Mateja; Čalogović, Jaša; Vršnak, Bojan; Temmer, Manuela; Mays, M. Leila; Veronig, Astrid; Piantschitsch, Isabell

2018-02-01

The drag-based model for heliospheric propagation of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) is a widely used analytical model that can predict CME arrival time and speed at a given heliospheric location. It is based on the assumption that the propagation of CMEs in interplanetary space is solely under the influence of magnetohydrodynamical drag, where CME propagation is determined based on CME initial properties as well as the properties of the ambient solar wind. We present an upgraded version, the drag-based ensemble model (DBEM), that covers ensemble modeling to produce a distribution of possible ICME arrival times and speeds. Multiple runs using uncertainty ranges for the input values can be performed in almost real-time, within a few minutes. This allows us to define the most likely ICME arrival times and speeds, quantify prediction uncertainties, and determine forecast confidence. The performance of the DBEM is evaluated and compared to that of ensemble WSA-ENLIL+Cone model (ENLIL) using the same sample of events. It is found that the mean error is ME = ‑9.7 hr, mean absolute error MAE = 14.3 hr, and root mean square error RMSE = 16.7 hr, which is somewhat higher than, but comparable to ENLIL errors (ME = ‑6.1 hr, MAE = 12.8 hr and RMSE = 14.4 hr). Overall, DBEM and ENLIL show a similar performance. Furthermore, we find that in both models fast CMEs are predicted to arrive earlier than observed, most likely owing to the physical limitations of models, but possibly also related to an overestimation of the CME initial speed for fast CMEs.

R-FCN Object Detection Ensemble based on Object Resolution and Image Quality

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Rasmussen, Christoffer Bøgelund; Nasrollahi, Kamal; Moeslund, Thomas B.

2017-01-01

Object detection can be difficult due to challenges such as variations in objects both inter- and intra-class. Additionally, variations can also be present between images. Based on this, research was conducted into creating an ensemble of Region-based Fully Convolutional Networks (R-FCN) object d...

Ensemble data assimilation in the Red Sea: sensitivity to ensemble selection and atmospheric forcing

KAUST Repository

Toye, Habib

2017-05-26

We present our efforts to build an ensemble data assimilation and forecasting system for the Red Sea. The system consists of the high-resolution Massachusetts Institute of Technology general circulation model (MITgcm) to simulate ocean circulation and of the Data Research Testbed (DART) for ensemble data assimilation. DART has been configured to integrate all members of an ensemble adjustment Kalman filter (EAKF) in parallel, based on which we adapted the ensemble operations in DART to use an invariant ensemble, i.e., an ensemble Optimal Interpolation (EnOI) algorithm. This approach requires only single forward model integration in the forecast step and therefore saves substantial computational cost. To deal with the strong seasonal variability of the Red Sea, the EnOI ensemble is then seasonally selected from a climatology of long-term model outputs. Observations of remote sensing sea surface height (SSH) and sea surface temperature (SST) are assimilated every 3 days. Real-time atmospheric fields from the National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) and the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) are used as forcing in different assimilation experiments. We investigate the behaviors of the EAKF and (seasonal-) EnOI and compare their performances for assimilating and forecasting the circulation of the Red Sea. We further assess the sensitivity of the assimilation system to various filtering parameters (ensemble size, inflation) and atmospheric forcing.

Statistical modelling of neural networks in γ-spectrometry applications

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Vigneron, V.; Martinez, J.M.; Morel, J.; Lepy, M.C.

1995-01-01

Layered Neural Networks, which are a class of models based on neural computation, are applied to the measurement of uranium enrichment, i.e. the isotope ratio 235 U/( 235 U + 236 U + 238 U). The usual method consider a limited number of Γ-ray and X-ray peaks, and require previously calibrated instrumentation for each sample. But, in practice, the source-detector ensemble geometry conditions are critically different, thus a means of improving the above convention methods is to reduce the region of interest: this is possible by focusing on the K α X region where the three elementary components are present. Real data are used to study the performance of neural networks. Training is done with a Maximum Likelihood method to measure uranium 235 U and 238 U quantities in infinitely thick samples. (authors). 18 refs., 6 figs., 3 tabs

Visualizing Confidence in Cluster-Based Ensemble Weather Forecast Analyses.

Science.gov (United States)

Kumpf, Alexander; Tost, Bianca; Baumgart, Marlene; Riemer, Michael; Westermann, Rudiger; Rautenhaus, Marc

2018-01-01

In meteorology, cluster analysis is frequently used to determine representative trends in ensemble weather predictions in a selected spatio-temporal region, e.g., to reduce a set of ensemble members to simplify and improve their analysis. Identified clusters (i.e., groups of similar members), however, can be very sensitive to small changes of the selected region, so that clustering results can be misleading and bias subsequent analyses. In this article, we - a team of visualization scientists and meteorologists-deliver visual analytics solutions to analyze the sensitivity of clustering results with respect to changes of a selected region. We propose an interactive visual interface that enables simultaneous visualization of a) the variation in composition of identified clusters (i.e., their robustness), b) the variability in cluster membership for individual ensemble members, and c) the uncertainty in the spatial locations of identified trends. We demonstrate that our solution shows meteorologists how representative a clustering result is, and with respect to which changes in the selected region it becomes unstable. Furthermore, our solution helps to identify those ensemble members which stably belong to a given cluster and can thus be considered similar. In a real-world application case we show how our approach is used to analyze the clustering behavior of different regions in a forecast of "Tropical Cyclone Karl", guiding the user towards the cluster robustness information required for subsequent ensemble analysis.

A novel Bayesian learning method for information aggregation in modular neural networks

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Wang, Pan; Xu, Lida; Zhou, Shang-Ming

2010-01-01

Modular neural network is a popular neural network model which has many successful applications. In this paper, a sequential Bayesian learning (SBL) is proposed for modular neural networks aiming at efficiently aggregating the outputs of members of the ensemble. The experimental results on eight...... benchmark problems have demonstrated that the proposed method can perform information aggregation efficiently in data modeling....

Semi-Supervised Multi-View Ensemble Learning Based On Extracting Cross-View Correlation

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

ZALL, R.

2016-05-01

Full Text Available Correlated information between different views incorporate useful for learning in multi view data. Canonical correlation analysis (CCA plays important role to extract these information. However, CCA only extracts the correlated information between paired data and cannot preserve correlated information between within-class samples. In this paper, we propose a two-view semi-supervised learning method called semi-supervised random correlation ensemble base on spectral clustering (SS_RCE. SS_RCE uses a multi-view method based on spectral clustering which takes advantage of discriminative information in multiple views to estimate labeling information of unlabeled samples. In order to enhance discriminative power of CCA features, we incorporate the labeling information of both unlabeled and labeled samples into CCA. Then, we use random correlation between within-class samples from cross view to extract diverse correlated features for training component classifiers. Furthermore, we extend a general model namely SSMV_RCE to construct ensemble method to tackle semi-supervised learning in the presence of multiple views. Finally, we compare the proposed methods with existing multi-view feature extraction methods using multi-view semi-supervised ensembles. Experimental results on various multi-view data sets are presented to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed methods.

Ensemble atmospheric dispersion calculations for decision support systems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Borysiewicz, M.; Potempski, S.; Galkowski, A.; Zelazny, R.

2003-01-01

This document describes two approaches to long-range atmospheric dispersion of pollutants based on the ensemble concept. In the first part of the report some experiences related to the exercises undertaken under the ENSEMBLE project of the European Union are presented. The second part is devoted to the implementation of mesoscale numerical prediction models RAMS and atmospheric dispersion model HYPACT on Beowulf cluster and theirs usage for ensemble forecasting and long range atmospheric ensemble dispersion calculations based on available meteorological data from NCEO, NOAA (USA). (author)

Projection of future climate change conditions using IPCC simulations, neural networks and Bayesian statistics. Part 2: Precipitation mean state and seasonal cycle in South America

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Boulanger, Jean-Philippe [LODYC, UMR CNRS/IRD/UPMC, Tour 45-55/Etage 4/Case 100, UPMC, Paris Cedex 05 (France); University of Buenos Aires, Departamento de Ciencias de la Atmosfera y los Oceanos, Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales, Buenos Aires (Argentina); Martinez, Fernando; Segura, Enrique C. [University of Buenos Aires, Departamento de Computacion, Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales, Buenos Aires (Argentina)

2007-02-15

Evaluating the response of climate to greenhouse gas forcing is a major objective of the climate community, and the use of large ensemble of simulations is considered as a significant step toward that goal. The present paper thus discusses a new methodology based on neural network to mix ensemble of climate model simulations. Our analysis consists of one simulation of seven Atmosphere-Ocean Global Climate Models, which participated in the IPCC Project and provided at least one simulation for the twentieth century (20c3m) and one simulation for each of three SRES scenarios: A2, A1B and B1. Our statistical method based on neural networks and Bayesian statistics computes a transfer function between models and observations. Such a transfer function was then used to project future conditions and to derive what we would call the optimal ensemble combination for twenty-first century climate change projections. Our approach is therefore based on one statement and one hypothesis. The statement is that an optimal ensemble projection should be built by giving larger weights to models, which have more skill in representing present climate conditions. The hypothesis is that our method based on neural network is actually weighting the models that way. While the statement is actually an open question, which answer may vary according to the region or climate signal under study, our results demonstrate that the neural network approach indeed allows to weighting models according to their skills. As such, our method is an improvement of existing Bayesian methods developed to mix ensembles of simulations. However, the general low skill of climate models in simulating precipitation mean climatology implies that the final projection maps (whatever the method used to compute them) may significantly change in the future as models improve. Therefore, the projection results for late twenty-first century conditions are presented as possible projections based on the &apos

Ensemble Methods

Science.gov (United States)

Re, Matteo; Valentini, Giorgio

2012-03-01

Ensemble methods are statistical and computational learning procedures reminiscent of the human social learning behavior of seeking several opinions before making any crucial decision. The idea of combining the opinions of different "experts" to obtain an overall “ensemble” decision is rooted in our culture at least from the classical age of ancient Greece, and it has been formalized during the Enlightenment with the Condorcet Jury Theorem[45]), which proved that the judgment of a committee is superior to those of individuals, provided the individuals have reasonable competence. Ensembles are sets of learning machines that combine in some way their decisions, or their learning algorithms, or different views of data, or other specific characteristics to obtain more reliable and more accurate predictions in supervised and unsupervised learning problems [48,116]. A simple example is represented by the majority vote ensemble, by which the decisions of different learning machines are combined, and the class that receives the majority of “votes” (i.e., the class predicted by the majority of the learning machines) is the class predicted by the overall ensemble [158]. In the literature, a plethora of terms other than ensembles has been used, such as fusion, combination, aggregation, and committee, to indicate sets of learning machines that work together to solve a machine learning problem [19,40,56,66,99,108,123], but in this chapter we maintain the term ensemble in its widest meaning, in order to include the whole range of combination methods. Nowadays, ensemble methods represent one of the main current research lines in machine learning [48,116], and the interest of the research community on ensemble methods is witnessed by conferences and workshops specifically devoted to ensembles, first of all the multiple classifier systems (MCS) conference organized by Roli, Kittler, Windeatt, and other researchers of this area [14,62,85,149,173]. Several theories have been

Tweet-based Target Market Classification Using Ensemble Method

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Muhammad Adi Khairul Anshary

2016-09-01

Full Text Available Target market classification is aimed at focusing marketing activities on the right targets. Classification of target markets can be done through data mining and by utilizing data from social media, e.g. Twitter. The end result of data mining are learning models that can classify new data. Ensemble methods can improve the accuracy of the models and therefore provide better results. In this study, classification of target markets was conducted on a dataset of 3000 tweets in order to extract features. Classification models were constructed to manipulate the training data using two ensemble methods (bagging and boosting. To investigate the effectiveness of the ensemble methods, this study used the CART (classification and regression tree algorithm for comparison. Three categories of consumer goods (computers, mobile phones and cameras and three categories of sentiments (positive, negative and neutral were classified towards three target-market categories. Machine learning was performed using Weka 3.6.9. The results of the test data showed that the bagging method improved the accuracy of CART with 1.9% (to 85.20%. On the other hand, for sentiment classification, the ensemble methods were not successful in increasing the accuracy of CART. The results of this study may be taken into consideration by companies who approach their customers through social media, especially Twitter.

The neural network z-vertex trigger for the Belle II detector

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Skambraks, Sebastian; Neuhaus, Sara [Technische Universitaet Muenchen (Germany); Chen, Yang; Kiesling, Christian [Max-Planck-Institut fuer Physik, Muenchen (Germany); Collaboration: Belle II-Collaboration

2016-07-01

We present a neural network based first level track trigger for the upcoming Belle II detector at the high luminosity SuperKEKB flavor factory. Using hit and drift time information from the Central Drift Chamber (CDC), neural networks estimate the z-coordinates of single track vertex positions. Especially beam induced background, with vertices outside of the interaction region, can clearly be rejected. This allows to relax the track trigger conditions and thus enhances the efficiency for events with a low track multiplicity. In the CDC trigger pipeline, the preceding 2D pattern recognition enables a unique per track input representation and a sectorization of the track parameter phase space. The precise z-vertices are then estimated by an ensemble of sector-specific local expert neural networks. After an introduction to the neural trigger system, the benefits of an improved 3D pattern recognition are discussed.

Ensemble response in mushroom body output neurons of the honey bee outpaces spatiotemporal odor processing two synapses earlier in the antennal lobe.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Martin F Strube-Bloss

Full Text Available Neural representations of odors are subject to computations that involve sequentially convergent and divergent anatomical connections across different areas of the brains in both mammals and insects. Furthermore, in both mammals and insects higher order brain areas are connected via feedback connections. In order to understand the transformations and interactions that this connectivity make possible, an ideal experiment would compare neural responses across different, sequential processing levels. Here we present results of recordings from a first order olfactory neuropile - the antennal lobe (AL - and a higher order multimodal integration and learning center - the mushroom body (MB - in the honey bee brain. We recorded projection neurons (PN of the AL and extrinsic neurons (EN of the MB, which provide the outputs from the two neuropils. Recordings at each level were made in different animals in some experiments and simultaneously in the same animal in others. We presented two odors and their mixture to compare odor response dynamics as well as classification speed and accuracy at each neural processing level. Surprisingly, the EN ensemble significantly starts separating odor stimuli rapidly and before the PN ensemble has reached significant separation. Furthermore the EN ensemble at the MB output reaches a maximum separation of odors between 84-120 ms after odor onset, which is 26 to 133 ms faster than the maximum separation at the AL output ensemble two synapses earlier in processing. It is likely that a subset of very fast PNs, which respond before the ENs, may initiate the rapid EN ensemble response. We suggest therefore that the timing of the EN ensemble activity would allow retroactive integration of its signal into the ongoing computation of the AL via centrifugal feedback.

Impacts of calibration strategies and ensemble methods on ensemble flood forecasting over Lanjiang basin, Southeast China

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, Li; Xu, Yue-Ping

2017-04-01

Ensemble flood forecasting driven by numerical weather prediction products is becoming more commonly used in operational flood forecasting applications.In this study, a hydrological ensemble flood forecasting system based on Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model and quantitative precipitation forecasts from TIGGE dataset is constructed for Lanjiang Basin, Southeast China. The impacts of calibration strategies and ensemble methods on the performance of the system are then evaluated.The hydrological model is optimized by parallel programmed ɛ-NSGAII multi-objective algorithm and two respectively parameterized models are determined to simulate daily flows and peak flows coupled with a modular approach.The results indicatethat the ɛ-NSGAII algorithm permits more efficient optimization and rational determination on parameter setting.It is demonstrated that the multimodel ensemble streamflow mean have better skills than the best singlemodel ensemble mean (ECMWF) and the multimodel ensembles weighted on members and skill scores outperform other multimodel ensembles. For typical flood event, it is proved that the flood can be predicted 3-4 days in advance, but the flows in rising limb can be captured with only 1-2 days ahead due to the flash feature. With respect to peak flows selected by Peaks Over Threshold approach, the ensemble means from either singlemodel or multimodels are generally underestimated as the extreme values are smoothed out by ensemble process.

Improving forecasting accuracy of medium and long-term runoff using artificial neural network based on EEMD decomposition.

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Wen-chuan; Chau, Kwok-wing; Qiu, Lin; Chen, Yang-bo

2015-05-01

Hydrological time series forecasting is one of the most important applications in modern hydrology, especially for the effective reservoir management. In this research, an artificial neural network (ANN) model coupled with the ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD) is presented for forecasting medium and long-term runoff time series. First, the original runoff time series is decomposed into a finite and often small number of intrinsic mode functions (IMFs) and a residual series using EEMD technique for attaining deeper insight into the data characteristics. Then all IMF components and residue are predicted, respectively, through appropriate ANN models. Finally, the forecasted results of the modeled IMFs and residual series are summed to formulate an ensemble forecast for the original annual runoff series. Two annual reservoir runoff time series from Biuliuhe and Mopanshan in China, are investigated using the developed model based on four performance evaluation measures (RMSE, MAPE, R and NSEC). The results obtained in this work indicate that EEMD can effectively enhance forecasting accuracy and the proposed EEMD-ANN model can attain significant improvement over ANN approach in medium and long-term runoff time series forecasting. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Combining neural networks for protein secondary structure prediction

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Riis, Søren Kamaric

1995-01-01

In this paper structured neural networks are applied to the problem of predicting the secondary structure of proteins. A hierarchical approach is used where specialized neural networks are designed for each structural class and then combined using another neural network. The submodels are designed...... by using a priori knowledge of the mapping between protein building blocks and the secondary structure and by using weight sharing. Since none of the individual networks have more than 600 adjustable weights over-fitting is avoided. When ensembles of specialized experts are combined the performance...

Coastal aquifer management under parameter uncertainty: Ensemble surrogate modeling based simulation-optimization

Science.gov (United States)

Janardhanan, S.; Datta, B.

2011-12-01

Surrogate models are widely used to develop computationally efficient simulation-optimization models to solve complex groundwater management problems. Artificial intelligence based models are most often used for this purpose where they are trained using predictor-predictand data obtained from a numerical simulation model. Most often this is implemented with the assumption that the parameters and boundary conditions used in the numerical simulation model are perfectly known. However, in most practical situations these values are uncertain. Under these circumstances the application of such approximation surrogates becomes limited. In our study we develop a surrogate model based coupled simulation optimization methodology for determining optimal pumping strategies for coastal aquifers considering parameter uncertainty. An ensemble surrogate modeling approach is used along with multiple realization optimization. The methodology is used to solve a multi-objective coastal aquifer management problem considering two conflicting objectives. Hydraulic conductivity and the aquifer recharge are considered as uncertain values. Three dimensional coupled flow and transport simulation model FEMWATER is used to simulate the aquifer responses for a number of scenarios corresponding to Latin hypercube samples of pumping and uncertain parameters to generate input-output patterns for training the surrogate models. Non-parametric bootstrap sampling of this original data set is used to generate multiple data sets which belong to different regions in the multi-dimensional decision and parameter space. These data sets are used to train and test multiple surrogate models based on genetic programming. The ensemble of surrogate models is then linked to a multi-objective genetic algorithm to solve the pumping optimization problem. Two conflicting objectives, viz, maximizing total pumping from beneficial wells and minimizing the total pumping from barrier wells for hydraulic control of

Detection of eardrum abnormalities using ensemble deep learning approaches

Science.gov (United States)

Senaras, Caglar; Moberly, Aaron C.; Teknos, Theodoros; Essig, Garth; Elmaraghy, Charles; Taj-Schaal, Nazhat; Yua, Lianbo; Gurcan, Metin N.

2018-02-01

In this study, we proposed an approach to report the condition of the eardrum as "normal" or "abnormal" by ensembling two different deep learning architectures. In the first network (Network 1), we applied transfer learning to the Inception V3 network by using 409 labeled samples. As a second network (Network 2), we designed a convolutional neural network to take advantage of auto-encoders by using additional 673 unlabeled eardrum samples. The individual classification accuracies of the Network 1 and Network 2 were calculated as 84.4%(+/- 12.1%) and 82.6% (+/- 11.3%), respectively. Only 32% of the errors of the two networks were the same, making it possible to combine two approaches to achieve better classification accuracy. The proposed ensemble method allows us to achieve robust classification because it has high accuracy (84.4%) with the lowest standard deviation (+/- 10.3%).

The classicality and quantumness of a quantum ensemble

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zhu Xuanmin; Pang Shengshi; Wu Shengjun; Liu Quanhui

2011-01-01

In this Letter, we investigate the classicality and quantumness of a quantum ensemble. We define a quantity called ensemble classicality based on classical cloning strategy (ECCC) to characterize how classical a quantum ensemble is. An ensemble of commuting states has a unit ECCC, while a general ensemble can have a ECCC less than 1. We also study how quantum an ensemble is by defining a related quantity called quantumness. We find that the classicality of an ensemble is closely related to how perfectly the ensemble can be cloned, and that the quantumness of the ensemble used in a quantum key distribution (QKD) protocol is exactly the attainable lower bound of the error rate in the sifted key. - Highlights: → A quantity is defined to characterize how classical a quantum ensemble is. → The classicality of an ensemble is closely related to the cloning performance. → Another quantity is also defined to investigate how quantum an ensemble is. → This quantity gives the lower bound of the error rate in a QKD protocol.

A user credit assessment model based on clustering ensemble for broadband network new media service supervision

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, Fang; Cao, San-xing; Lu, Rui

2012-04-01

This paper proposes a user credit assessment model based on clustering ensemble aiming to solve the problem that users illegally spread pirated and pornographic media contents within the user self-service oriented broadband network new media platforms. Its idea is to do the new media user credit assessment by establishing indices system based on user credit behaviors, and the illegal users could be found according to the credit assessment results, thus to curb the bad videos and audios transmitted on the network. The user credit assessment model based on clustering ensemble proposed by this paper which integrates the advantages that swarm intelligence clustering is suitable for user credit behavior analysis and K-means clustering could eliminate the scattered users existed in the result of swarm intelligence clustering, thus to realize all the users' credit classification automatically. The model's effective verification experiments are accomplished which are based on standard credit application dataset in UCI machine learning repository, and the statistical results of a comparative experiment with a single model of swarm intelligence clustering indicates this clustering ensemble model has a stronger creditworthiness distinguishing ability, especially in the aspect of predicting to find user clusters with the best credit and worst credit, which will facilitate the operators to take incentive measures or punitive measures accurately. Besides, compared with the experimental results of Logistic regression based model under the same conditions, this clustering ensemble model is robustness and has better prediction accuracy.

Study on a Biometric Authentication Model based on ECG using a Fuzzy Neural Network

Science.gov (United States)

Kim, Ho J.; Lim, Joon S.

2018-03-01

Traditional authentication methods use numbers or graphic passwords and thus involve the risk of loss or theft. Various studies are underway regarding biometric authentication because it uses the unique biometric data of a human being. Biometric authentication technology using ECG from biometric data involves signals that record electrical stimuli from the heart. It is difficult to manipulate and is advantageous in that it enables unrestrained measurements from sensors that are attached to the skin. This study is on biometric authentication methods using the neural network with weighted fuzzy membership functions (NEWFM). In the biometric authentication process, normalization and the ensemble average is applied during preprocessing, characteristics are extracted using Haar-wavelets, and a registration process called “training” is performed in the fuzzy neural network. In the experiment, biometric authentication was performed on 73 subjects in the Physionet Database. 10-40 ECG waveforms were tested for use in the registration process, and 15 ECG waveforms were deemed the appropriate number for registering ECG waveforms. 1 ECG waveforms were used during the authentication stage to conduct the biometric authentication test. Upon testing the proposed biometric authentication method based on 73 subjects from the Physionet Database, the TAR was 98.32% and FAR was 5.84%.

Improving ECG classification accuracy using an ensemble of neural network modules.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mehrdad Javadi

Full Text Available This paper illustrates the use of a combined neural network model based on Stacked Generalization method for classification of electrocardiogram (ECG beats. In conventional Stacked Generalization method, the combiner learns to map the base classifiers' outputs to the target data. We claim adding the input pattern to the base classifiers' outputs helps the combiner to obtain knowledge about the input space and as the result, performs better on the same task. Experimental results support our claim that the additional knowledge according to the input space, improves the performance of the proposed method which is called Modified Stacked Generalization. In particular, for classification of 14966 ECG beats that were not previously seen during training phase, the Modified Stacked Generalization method reduced the error rate for 12.41% in comparison with the best of ten popular classifier fusion methods including Max, Min, Average, Product, Majority Voting, Borda Count, Decision Templates, Weighted Averaging based on Particle Swarm Optimization and Stacked Generalization.

Neural Network Based Load Frequency Control for Restructuring ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Neural Network Based Load Frequency Control for Restructuring Power Industry. ... an artificial neural network (ANN) application of load frequency control (LFC) of a Multi-Area power system by using a neural network controller is presented.

SVM and SVM Ensembles in Breast Cancer Prediction.

Science.gov (United States)

Huang, Min-Wei; Chen, Chih-Wen; Lin, Wei-Chao; Ke, Shih-Wen; Tsai, Chih-Fong

2017-01-01

Breast cancer is an all too common disease in women, making how to effectively predict it an active research problem. A number of statistical and machine learning techniques have been employed to develop various breast cancer prediction models. Among them, support vector machines (SVM) have been shown to outperform many related techniques. To construct the SVM classifier, it is first necessary to decide the kernel function, and different kernel functions can result in different prediction performance. However, there have been very few studies focused on examining the prediction performances of SVM based on different kernel functions. Moreover, it is unknown whether SVM classifier ensembles which have been proposed to improve the performance of single classifiers can outperform single SVM classifiers in terms of breast cancer prediction. Therefore, the aim of this paper is to fully assess the prediction performance of SVM and SVM ensembles over small and large scale breast cancer datasets. The classification accuracy, ROC, F-measure, and computational times of training SVM and SVM ensembles are compared. The experimental results show that linear kernel based SVM ensembles based on the bagging method and RBF kernel based SVM ensembles with the boosting method can be the better choices for a small scale dataset, where feature selection should be performed in the data pre-processing stage. For a large scale dataset, RBF kernel based SVM ensembles based on boosting perform better than the other classifiers.

SVM and SVM Ensembles in Breast Cancer Prediction.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Min-Wei Huang

Full Text Available Breast cancer is an all too common disease in women, making how to effectively predict it an active research problem. A number of statistical and machine learning techniques have been employed to develop various breast cancer prediction models. Among them, support vector machines (SVM have been shown to outperform many related techniques. To construct the SVM classifier, it is first necessary to decide the kernel function, and different kernel functions can result in different prediction performance. However, there have been very few studies focused on examining the prediction performances of SVM based on different kernel functions. Moreover, it is unknown whether SVM classifier ensembles which have been proposed to improve the performance of single classifiers can outperform single SVM classifiers in terms of breast cancer prediction. Therefore, the aim of this paper is to fully assess the prediction performance of SVM and SVM ensembles over small and large scale breast cancer datasets. The classification accuracy, ROC, F-measure, and computational times of training SVM and SVM ensembles are compared. The experimental results show that linear kernel based SVM ensembles based on the bagging method and RBF kernel based SVM ensembles with the boosting method can be the better choices for a small scale dataset, where feature selection should be performed in the data pre-processing stage. For a large scale dataset, RBF kernel based SVM ensembles based on boosting perform better than the other classifiers.

Utilising Tree-Based Ensemble Learning for Speaker Segmentation

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Abou-Zleikha, Mohamed; Tan, Zheng-Hua; Christensen, Mads Græsbøll

2014-01-01

In audio and speech processing, accurate detection of the changing points between multiple speakers in speech segments is an important stage for several applications such as speaker identification and tracking. Bayesian Information Criteria (BIC)-based approaches are the most traditionally used...... for a certain condition, the model becomes biased to the data used for training limiting the model’s generalisation ability. In this paper, we propose a BIC-based tuning-free approach for speaker segmentation through the use of ensemble-based learning. A forest of segmentation trees is constructed in which each...... tree is trained using a sampled version of the speech segment. During the tree construction process, a set of randomly selected points in the input sequence is examined as potential segmentation points. The point that yields the highest ΔBIC is chosen and the same process is repeated for the resultant...

A Hybrid Spectral Clustering and Deep Neural Network Ensemble Algorithm for Intrusion Detection in Sensor Networks.

Science.gov (United States)

Ma, Tao; Wang, Fen; Cheng, Jianjun; Yu, Yang; Chen, Xiaoyun

2016-10-13

The development of intrusion detection systems (IDS) that are adapted to allow routers and network defence systems to detect malicious network traffic disguised as network protocols or normal access is a critical challenge. This paper proposes a novel approach called SCDNN, which combines spectral clustering (SC) and deep neural network (DNN) algorithms. First, the dataset is divided into k subsets based on sample similarity using cluster centres, as in SC. Next, the distance between data points in a testing set and the training set is measured based on similarity features and is fed into the deep neural network algorithm for intrusion detection. Six KDD-Cup99 and NSL-KDD datasets and a sensor network dataset were employed to test the performance of the model. These experimental results indicate that the SCDNN classifier not only performs better than backpropagation neural network (BPNN), support vector machine (SVM), random forest (RF) and Bayes tree models in detection accuracy and the types of abnormal attacks found. It also provides an effective tool of study and analysis of intrusion detection in large networks.

Ensemble Prediction Model with Expert Selection for Electricity Price Forecasting

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Bijay Neupane

2017-01-01

Full Text Available Forecasting of electricity prices is important in deregulated electricity markets for all of the stakeholders: energy wholesalers, traders, retailers and consumers. Electricity price forecasting is an inherently difficult problem due to its special characteristic of dynamicity and non-stationarity. In this paper, we present a robust price forecasting mechanism that shows resilience towards the aggregate demand response effect and provides highly accurate forecasted electricity prices to the stakeholders in a dynamic environment. We employ an ensemble prediction model in which a group of different algorithms participates in forecasting 1-h ahead the price for each hour of a day. We propose two different strategies, namely, the Fixed Weight Method (FWM and the Varying Weight Method (VWM, for selecting each hour’s expert algorithm from the set of participating algorithms. In addition, we utilize a carefully engineered set of features selected from a pool of features extracted from the past electricity price data, weather data and calendar data. The proposed ensemble model offers better results than the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA method, the Pattern Sequence-based Forecasting (PSF method and our previous work using Artificial Neural Networks (ANN alone on the datasets for New York, Australian and Spanish electricity markets.

An Adjoint-Based Adaptive Ensemble Kalman Filter

KAUST Repository

Song, Hajoon

2013-10-01

A new hybrid ensemble Kalman filter/four-dimensional variational data assimilation (EnKF/4D-VAR) approach is introduced to mitigate background covariance limitations in the EnKF. The work is based on the adaptive EnKF (AEnKF) method, which bears a strong resemblance to the hybrid EnKF/three-dimensional variational data assimilation (3D-VAR) method. In the AEnKF, the representativeness of the EnKF ensemble is regularly enhanced with new members generated after back projection of the EnKF analysis residuals to state space using a 3D-VAR [or optimal interpolation (OI)] scheme with a preselected background covariance matrix. The idea here is to reformulate the transformation of the residuals as a 4D-VAR problem, constraining the new member with model dynamics and the previous observations. This should provide more information for the estimation of the new member and reduce dependence of the AEnKF on the assumed stationary background covariance matrix. This is done by integrating the analysis residuals backward in time with the adjoint model. Numerical experiments are performed with the Lorenz-96 model under different scenarios to test the new approach and to evaluate its performance with respect to the EnKF and the hybrid EnKF/3D-VAR. The new method leads to the least root-mean-square estimation errors as long as the linear assumption guaranteeing the stability of the adjoint model holds. It is also found to be less sensitive to choices of the assimilation system inputs and parameters.

An Adjoint-Based Adaptive Ensemble Kalman Filter

KAUST Repository

Song, Hajoon; Hoteit, Ibrahim; Cornuelle, Bruce D.; Luo, Xiaodong; Subramanian, Aneesh C.

2013-01-01

A new hybrid ensemble Kalman filter/four-dimensional variational data assimilation (EnKF/4D-VAR) approach is introduced to mitigate background covariance limitations in the EnKF. The work is based on the adaptive EnKF (AEnKF) method, which bears a strong resemblance to the hybrid EnKF/three-dimensional variational data assimilation (3D-VAR) method. In the AEnKF, the representativeness of the EnKF ensemble is regularly enhanced with new members generated after back projection of the EnKF analysis residuals to state space using a 3D-VAR [or optimal interpolation (OI)] scheme with a preselected background covariance matrix. The idea here is to reformulate the transformation of the residuals as a 4D-VAR problem, constraining the new member with model dynamics and the previous observations. This should provide more information for the estimation of the new member and reduce dependence of the AEnKF on the assumed stationary background covariance matrix. This is done by integrating the analysis residuals backward in time with the adjoint model. Numerical experiments are performed with the Lorenz-96 model under different scenarios to test the new approach and to evaluate its performance with respect to the EnKF and the hybrid EnKF/3D-VAR. The new method leads to the least root-mean-square estimation errors as long as the linear assumption guaranteeing the stability of the adjoint model holds. It is also found to be less sensitive to choices of the assimilation system inputs and parameters.

Estimating Uncertainty of Point-Cloud Based Single-Tree Segmentation with Ensemble Based Filtering

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Matthew Parkan

2018-02-01

Full Text Available Individual tree crown segmentation from Airborne Laser Scanning data is a nodal problem in forest remote sensing. Focusing on single layered spruce and fir dominated coniferous forests, this article addresses the problem of directly estimating 3D segment shape uncertainty (i.e., without field/reference surveys, using a probabilistic approach. First, a coarse segmentation (marker controlled watershed is applied. Then, the 3D alpha hull and several descriptors are computed for each segment. Based on these descriptors, the alpha hulls are grouped to form ensembles (i.e., groups of similar tree shapes. By examining how frequently regions of a shape occur within an ensemble, it is possible to assign a shape probability to each point within a segment. The shape probability can subsequently be thresholded to obtain improved (filtered tree segments. Results indicate this approach can be used to produce segmentation reliability maps. A comparison to manually segmented tree crowns also indicates that the approach is able to produce more reliable tree shapes than the initial (unfiltered segmentation.

Making decisions based on an imperfect ensemble of climate simulators: strategies and future directions

Science.gov (United States)

Sanderson, B. M.

2017-12-01

The CMIP ensembles represent the most comprehensive source of information available to decision-makers for climate adaptation, yet it is clear that there are fundamental limitations in our ability to treat the ensemble as an unbiased sample of possible future climate trajectories. There is considerable evidence that models are not independent, and increasing complexity and resolution combined with computational constraints prevent a thorough exploration of parametric uncertainty or internal variability. Although more data than ever is available for calibration, the optimization of each model is influenced by institutional priorities, historical precedent and available resources. The resulting ensemble thus represents a miscellany of climate simulators which defy traditional statistical interpretation. Models are in some cases interdependent, but are sufficiently complex that the degree of interdependency is conditional on the application. Configurations have been updated using available observations to some degree, but not in a consistent or easily identifiable fashion. This means that the ensemble cannot be viewed as a true posterior distribution updated by available data, but nor can observational data alone be used to assess individual model likelihood. We assess recent literature for combining projections from an imperfect ensemble of climate simulators. Beginning with our published methodology for addressing model interdependency and skill in the weighting scheme for the 4th US National Climate Assessment, we consider strategies for incorporating process-based constraints on future response, perturbed parameter experiments and multi-model output into an integrated framework. We focus on a number of guiding questions: Is the traditional framework of confidence in projections inferred from model agreement leading to biased or misleading conclusions? Can the benefits of upweighting skillful models be reconciled with the increased risk of truth lying outside the

Reducing false-positive incidental findings with ensemble genotyping and logistic regression based variant filtering methods.

Science.gov (United States)

Hwang, Kyu-Baek; Lee, In-Hee; Park, Jin-Ho; Hambuch, Tina; Choe, Yongjoon; Kim, MinHyeok; Lee, Kyungjoon; Song, Taemin; Neu, Matthew B; Gupta, Neha; Kohane, Isaac S; Green, Robert C; Kong, Sek Won

2014-08-01

As whole genome sequencing (WGS) uncovers variants associated with rare and common diseases, an immediate challenge is to minimize false-positive findings due to sequencing and variant calling errors. False positives can be reduced by combining results from orthogonal sequencing methods, but costly. Here, we present variant filtering approaches using logistic regression (LR) and ensemble genotyping to minimize false positives without sacrificing sensitivity. We evaluated the methods using paired WGS datasets of an extended family prepared using two sequencing platforms and a validated set of variants in NA12878. Using LR or ensemble genotyping based filtering, false-negative rates were significantly reduced by 1.1- to 17.8-fold at the same levels of false discovery rates (5.4% for heterozygous and 4.5% for homozygous single nucleotide variants (SNVs); 30.0% for heterozygous and 18.7% for homozygous insertions; 25.2% for heterozygous and 16.6% for homozygous deletions) compared to the filtering based on genotype quality scores. Moreover, ensemble genotyping excluded > 98% (105,080 of 107,167) of false positives while retaining > 95% (897 of 937) of true positives in de novo mutation (DNM) discovery in NA12878, and performed better than a consensus method using two sequencing platforms. Our proposed methods were effective in prioritizing phenotype-associated variants, and an ensemble genotyping would be essential to minimize false-positive DNM candidates. © 2014 WILEY PERIODICALS, INC.

An application of ensemble/multi model approach for wind power production forecasting

Science.gov (United States)

Alessandrini, S.; Pinson, P.; Hagedorn, R.; Decimi, G.; Sperati, S.

2011-02-01

The wind power forecasts of the 3 days ahead period are becoming always more useful and important in reducing the problem of grid integration and energy price trading due to the increasing wind power penetration. Therefore it's clear that the accuracy of this forecast is one of the most important requirements for a successful application. The wind power forecast applied in this study is based on meteorological models that provide the 3 days ahead wind data. A Model Output Statistic correction is then performed to reduce systematic error caused, for instance, by a wrong representation of surface roughness or topography in the meteorological models. For this purpose a training of a Neural Network (NN) to link directly the forecasted meteorological data and the power data has been performed. One wind farm has been examined located in a mountain area in the south of Italy (Sicily). First we compare the performances of a prediction based on meteorological data coming from a single model with those obtained by the combination of models (RAMS, ECMWF deterministic, LAMI). It is shown that the multi models approach reduces the day-ahead normalized RMSE forecast error (normalized by nominal power) of at least 1% compared to the singles models approach. Finally we have focused on the possibility of using the ensemble model system (EPS by ECMWF) to estimate the hourly, three days ahead, power forecast accuracy. Contingency diagram between RMSE of the deterministic power forecast and the ensemble members spread of wind forecast have been produced. From this first analysis it seems that ensemble spread could be used as an indicator of the forecast's accuracy at least for the first three days ahead period.

Finding strong lenses in CFHTLS using convolutional neural networks

Science.gov (United States)

Jacobs, C.; Glazebrook, K.; Collett, T.; More, A.; McCarthy, C.

2017-10-01

We train and apply convolutional neural networks, a machine learning technique developed to learn from and classify image data, to Canada-France-Hawaii Telescope Legacy Survey (CFHTLS) imaging for the identification of potential strong lensing systems. An ensemble of four convolutional neural networks was trained on images of simulated galaxy-galaxy lenses. The training sets consisted of a total of 62 406 simulated lenses and 64 673 non-lens negative examples generated with two different methodologies. An ensemble of trained networks was applied to all of the 171 deg2 of the CFHTLS wide field image data, identifying 18 861 candidates including 63 known and 139 other potential lens candidates. A second search of 1.4 million early-type galaxies selected from the survey catalogue as potential deflectors, identified 2465 candidates including 117 previously known lens candidates, 29 confirmed lenses/high-quality lens candidates, 266 novel probable or potential lenses and 2097 candidates we classify as false positives. For the catalogue-based search we estimate a completeness of 21-28 per cent with respect to detectable lenses and a purity of 15 per cent, with a false-positive rate of 1 in 671 images tested. We predict a human astronomer reviewing candidates produced by the system would identify 20 probable lenses and 100 possible lenses per hour in a sample selected by the robot. Convolutional neural networks are therefore a promising tool for use in the search for lenses in current and forthcoming surveys such as the Dark Energy Survey and the Large Synoptic Survey Telescope.

Efficient Kernel-Based Ensemble Gaussian Mixture Filtering

KAUST Repository

Liu, Bo; Ait-El-Fquih, Boujemaa; Hoteit, Ibrahim

2015-01-01

(KF)-like update of the ensemble members and a particle filter (PF)-like update of the weights, followed by a resampling step to start a new forecast cycle. After formulating EnGMF for any observational operator, we analyze the influence

Neuro-fuzzy decoding of sensory information from ensembles of simultaneously recorded dorsal root ganglion neurons for functional electrical stimulation applications

Science.gov (United States)

Rigosa, J.; Weber, D. J.; Prochazka, A.; Stein, R. B.; Micera, S.

2011-08-01

Functional electrical stimulation (FES) is used to improve motor function after injury to the central nervous system. Some FES systems use artificial sensors to switch between finite control states. To optimize FES control of the complex behavior of the musculo-skeletal system in activities of daily life, it is highly desirable to implement feedback control. In theory, sensory neural signals could provide the required control signals. Recent studies have demonstrated the feasibility of deriving limb-state estimates from the firing rates of primary afferent neurons recorded in dorsal root ganglia (DRG). These studies used multiple linear regression (MLR) methods to generate estimates of limb position and velocity based on a weighted sum of firing rates in an ensemble of simultaneously recorded DRG neurons. The aim of this study was to test whether the use of a neuro-fuzzy (NF) algorithm (the generalized dynamic fuzzy neural networks (GD-FNN)) could improve the performance, robustness and ability to generalize from training to test sets compared to the MLR technique. NF and MLR decoding methods were applied to ensemble DRG recordings obtained during passive and active limb movements in anesthetized and freely moving cats. The GD-FNN model provided more accurate estimates of limb state and generalized better to novel movement patterns. Future efforts will focus on implementing these neural recording and decoding methods in real time to provide closed-loop control of FES using the information extracted from sensory neurons.

Neuro-fuzzy decoding of sensory information from ensembles of simultaneously recorded dorsal root ganglion neurons for functional electrical stimulation applications.

Science.gov (United States)

Rigosa, J; Weber, D J; Prochazka, A; Stein, R B; Micera, S

2011-08-01

Functional electrical stimulation (FES) is used to improve motor function after injury to the central nervous system. Some FES systems use artificial sensors to switch between finite control states. To optimize FES control of the complex behavior of the musculo-skeletal system in activities of daily life, it is highly desirable to implement feedback control. In theory, sensory neural signals could provide the required control signals. Recent studies have demonstrated the feasibility of deriving limb-state estimates from the firing rates of primary afferent neurons recorded in dorsal root ganglia (DRG). These studies used multiple linear regression (MLR) methods to generate estimates of limb position and velocity based on a weighted sum of firing rates in an ensemble of simultaneously recorded DRG neurons. The aim of this study was to test whether the use of a neuro-fuzzy (NF) algorithm (the generalized dynamic fuzzy neural networks (GD-FNN)) could improve the performance, robustness and ability to generalize from training to test sets compared to the MLR technique. NF and MLR decoding methods were applied to ensemble DRG recordings obtained during passive and active limb movements in anesthetized and freely moving cats. The GD-FNN model provided more accurate estimates of limb state and generalized better to novel movement patterns. Future efforts will focus on implementing these neural recording and decoding methods in real time to provide closed-loop control of FES using the information extracted from sensory neurons.

Ensemble of ground subsidence hazard maps using fuzzy logic

Science.gov (United States)

Park, Inhye; Lee, Jiyeong; Saro, Lee

2014-06-01

Hazard maps of ground subsidence around abandoned underground coal mines (AUCMs) in Samcheok, Korea, were constructed using fuzzy ensemble techniques and a geographical information system (GIS). To evaluate the factors related to ground subsidence, a spatial database was constructed from topographic, geologic, mine tunnel, land use, groundwater, and ground subsidence maps. Spatial data, topography, geology, and various ground-engineering data for the subsidence area were collected and compiled in a database for mapping ground-subsidence hazard (GSH). The subsidence area was randomly split 70/30 for training and validation of the models. The relationships between the detected ground-subsidence area and the factors were identified and quantified by frequency ratio (FR), logistic regression (LR) and artificial neural network (ANN) models. The relationships were used as factor ratings in the overlay analysis to create ground-subsidence hazard indexes and maps. The three GSH maps were then used as new input factors and integrated using fuzzy-ensemble methods to make better hazard maps. All of the hazard maps were validated by comparison with known subsidence areas that were not used directly in the analysis. As the result, the ensemble model was found to be more effective in terms of prediction accuracy than the individual model.

Detecting bladder fullness through the ensemble activity patterns of the spinal cord unit population in a somatovisceral convergence environment

Science.gov (United States)

Park, Jae Hong; Kim, Chang-Eop; Shin, Jaewoo; Im, Changkyun; Koh, Chin Su; Seo, In Seok; Kim, Sang Jeong; Shin, Hyung-Cheul

2013-10-01

Objective. Chronic monitoring of the state of the bladder can be used to notify patients with urinary dysfunction when the bladder should be voided. Given that many spinal neurons respond both to somatic and visceral inputs, it is necessary to extract bladder information selectively from the spinal cord. Here, we hypothesize that sensory information with distinct modalities should be represented by the distinct ensemble activity patterns within the neuronal population and, therefore, analyzing the activity patterns of the neuronal population could distinguish bladder fullness from somatic stimuli. Approach. We simultaneously recorded 26-27 single unit activities in response to bladder distension or tactile stimuli in the dorsal spinal cord of each Sprague-Dawley rat. In order to discriminate between bladder fullness and tactile stimulus inputs, we analyzed the ensemble activity patterns of the entire neuronal population. A support vector machine (SVM) was employed as a classifier, and discrimination performance was measured by k-fold cross-validation tests. Main results. Most of the units responding to bladder fullness also responded to the tactile stimuli (88.9-100%). The SVM classifier precisely distinguished the bladder fullness from the somatic input (100%), indicating that the ensemble activity patterns of the unit population in the spinal cord are distinct enough to identify the current input modality. Moreover, our ensemble activity pattern-based classifier showed high robustness against random losses of signals. Significance. This study is the first to demonstrate that the two main issues of electroneurographic monitoring of bladder fullness, low signals and selectiveness, can be solved by an ensemble activity pattern-based approach, improving the feasibility of chronic monitoring of bladder fullness by neural recording.

Neural network-based model reference adaptive control system.

Science.gov (United States)

Patino, H D; Liu, D

2000-01-01

In this paper, an approach to model reference adaptive control based on neural networks is proposed and analyzed for a class of first-order continuous-time nonlinear dynamical systems. The controller structure can employ either a radial basis function network or a feedforward neural network to compensate adaptively the nonlinearities in the plant. A stable controller-parameter adjustment mechanism, which is determined using the Lyapunov theory, is constructed using a sigma-modification-type updating law. The evaluation of control error in terms of the neural network learning error is performed. That is, the control error converges asymptotically to a neighborhood of zero, whose size is evaluated and depends on the approximation error of the neural network. In the design and analysis of neural network-based control systems, it is important to take into account the neural network learning error and its influence on the control error of the plant. Simulation results showing the feasibility and performance of the proposed approach are given.

Wang-Landau Reaction Ensemble Method: Simulation of Weak Polyelectrolytes and General Acid-Base Reactions.

Science.gov (United States)

Landsgesell, Jonas; Holm, Christian; Smiatek, Jens

2017-02-14

We present a novel method for the study of weak polyelectrolytes and general acid-base reactions in molecular dynamics and Monte Carlo simulations. The approach combines the advantages of the reaction ensemble and the Wang-Landau sampling method. Deprotonation and protonation reactions are simulated explicitly with the help of the reaction ensemble method, while the accurate sampling of the corresponding phase space is achieved by the Wang-Landau approach. The combination of both techniques provides a sufficient statistical accuracy such that meaningful estimates for the density of states and the partition sum can be obtained. With regard to these estimates, several thermodynamic observables like the heat capacity or reaction free energies can be calculated. We demonstrate that the computation times for the calculation of titration curves with a high statistical accuracy can be significantly decreased when compared to the original reaction ensemble method. The applicability of our approach is validated by the study of weak polyelectrolytes and their thermodynamic properties.

AUC-Maximizing Ensembles through Metalearning.

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LeDell, Erin; van der Laan, Mark J; Petersen, Maya

2016-05-01

Area Under the ROC Curve (AUC) is often used to measure the performance of an estimator in binary classification problems. An AUC-maximizing classifier can have significant advantages in cases where ranking correctness is valued or if the outcome is rare. In a Super Learner ensemble, maximization of the AUC can be achieved by the use of an AUC-maximining metalearning algorithm. We discuss an implementation of an AUC-maximization technique that is formulated as a nonlinear optimization problem. We also evaluate the effectiveness of a large number of different nonlinear optimization algorithms to maximize the cross-validated AUC of the ensemble fit. The results provide evidence that AUC-maximizing metalearners can, and often do, out-perform non-AUC-maximizing metalearning methods, with respect to ensemble AUC. The results also demonstrate that as the level of imbalance in the training data increases, the Super Learner ensemble outperforms the top base algorithm by a larger degree.

Optical-Correlator Neural Network Based On Neocognitron

Science.gov (United States)

Chao, Tien-Hsin; Stoner, William W.

1994-01-01

Multichannel optical correlator implements shift-invariant, high-discrimination pattern-recognizing neural network based on paradigm of neocognitron. Selected as basic building block of this neural network because invariance under shifts is inherent advantage of Fourier optics included in optical correlators in general. Neocognitron is conceptual electronic neural-network model for recognition of visual patterns. Multilayer processing achieved by iteratively feeding back output of feature correlator to input spatial light modulator and updating Fourier filters. Neural network trained by use of characteristic features extracted from target images. Multichannel implementation enables parallel processing of large number of selected features.

Genetic learning in rule-based and neural systems

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Smith, Robert E.

1993-01-01

The design of neural networks and fuzzy systems can involve complex, nonlinear, and ill-conditioned optimization problems. Often, traditional optimization schemes are inadequate or inapplicable for such tasks. Genetic Algorithms (GA's) are a class of optimization procedures whose mechanics are based on those of natural genetics. Mathematical arguments show how GAs bring substantial computational leverage to search problems, without requiring the mathematical characteristics often necessary for traditional optimization schemes (e.g., modality, continuity, availability of derivative information, etc.). GA's have proven effective in a variety of search tasks that arise in neural networks and fuzzy systems. This presentation begins by introducing the mechanism and theoretical underpinnings of GA's. GA's are then related to a class of rule-based machine learning systems called learning classifier systems (LCS's). An LCS implements a low-level production-system that uses a GA as its primary rule discovery mechanism. This presentation illustrates how, despite its rule-based framework, an LCS can be thought of as a competitive neural network. Neural network simulator code for an LCS is presented. In this context, the GA is doing more than optimizing and objective function. It is searching for an ecology of hidden nodes with limited connectivity. The GA attempts to evolve this ecology such that effective neural network performance results. The GA is particularly well adapted to this task, given its naturally-inspired basis. The LCS/neural network analogy extends itself to other, more traditional neural networks. Conclusions to the presentation discuss the implications of using GA's in ecological search problems that arise in neural and fuzzy systems.

Interacting neural networks

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Metzler, R.; Kinzel, W.; Kanter, I.

2000-08-01

Several scenarios of interacting neural networks which are trained either in an identical or in a competitive way are solved analytically. In the case of identical training each perceptron receives the output of its neighbor. The symmetry of the stationary state as well as the sensitivity to the used training algorithm are investigated. Two competitive perceptrons trained on mutually exclusive learning aims and a perceptron which is trained on the opposite of its own output are examined analytically. An ensemble of competitive perceptrons is used as decision-making algorithms in a model of a closed market (El Farol Bar problem or the Minority Game. In this game, a set of agents who have to make a binary decision is considered.); each network is trained on the history of minority decisions. This ensemble of perceptrons relaxes to a stationary state whose performance can be better than random.

Low-dimensional recurrent neural network-based Kalman filter for speech enhancement.

Science.gov (United States)

Xia, Youshen; Wang, Jun

2015-07-01

This paper proposes a new recurrent neural network-based Kalman filter for speech enhancement, based on a noise-constrained least squares estimate. The parameters of speech signal modeled as autoregressive process are first estimated by using the proposed recurrent neural network and the speech signal is then recovered from Kalman filtering. The proposed recurrent neural network is globally asymptomatically stable to the noise-constrained estimate. Because the noise-constrained estimate has a robust performance against non-Gaussian noise, the proposed recurrent neural network-based speech enhancement algorithm can minimize the estimation error of Kalman filter parameters in non-Gaussian noise. Furthermore, having a low-dimensional model feature, the proposed neural network-based speech enhancement algorithm has a much faster speed than two existing recurrent neural networks-based speech enhancement algorithms. Simulation results show that the proposed recurrent neural network-based speech enhancement algorithm can produce a good performance with fast computation and noise reduction. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Ensemble Genetic Fuzzy Neuro Model Applied for the Emergency Medical Service via Unbalanced Data Evaluation

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Muammar Sadrawi

2018-03-01

Full Text Available Equally partitioned data are essential for prediction. However, in some important cases, the data distribution is severely unbalanced. In this study, several algorithms are utilized to maximize the learning accuracy when dealing with a highly unbalanced dataset. A linguistic algorithm is applied to evaluate the input and output relationship, namely Fuzzy c-Means (FCM, which is applied as a clustering algorithm for the majority class to balance the minority class data from about 3 million cases. Each cluster is used to train several artificial neural network (ANN models. Different techniques are applied to generate an ensemble genetic fuzzy neuro model (EGFNM in order to select the models. The first ensemble technique, the intra-cluster EGFNM, works by evaluating the best combination from all the models generated by each cluster. Another ensemble technique is the inter-cluster model EGFNM, which is based on selecting the best model from each cluster. The accuracy of these techniques is evaluated using the receiver operating characteristic (ROC via its area under the curve (AUC. Results show that the AUC of the unbalanced data is 0.67974. The random cluster and best ANN single model have AUCs of 0.7177 and 0.72806, respectively. For the ensemble evaluations, the intra-cluster and the inter-cluster EGFNMs produce 0.7293 and 0.73038, respectively. In conclusion, this study achieved improved results by performing the EGFNM method compared with the unbalanced training. This study concludes that selecting several best models will produce a better result compared with all models combined.

Neural networks and statistical learning

CERN Document Server

Du, Ke-Lin

2014-01-01

Providing a broad but in-depth introduction to neural network and machine learning in a statistical framework, this book provides a single, comprehensive resource for study and further research. All the major popular neural network models and statistical learning approaches are covered with examples and exercises in every chapter to develop a practical working understanding of the content. Each of the twenty-five chapters includes state-of-the-art descriptions and important research results on the respective topics. The broad coverage includes the multilayer perceptron, the Hopfield network, associative memory models, clustering models and algorithms, the radial basis function network, recurrent neural networks, principal component analysis, nonnegative matrix factorization, independent component analysis, discriminant analysis, support vector machines, kernel methods, reinforcement learning, probabilistic and Bayesian networks, data fusion and ensemble learning, fuzzy sets and logic, neurofuzzy models, hardw...

Short-Term Load Forecasting Model Based on Quantum Elman Neural Networks

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Zhisheng Zhang

2016-01-01

Full Text Available Short-term load forecasting model based on quantum Elman neural networks was constructed in this paper. The quantum computation and Elman feedback mechanism were integrated into quantum Elman neural networks. Quantum computation can effectively improve the approximation capability and the information processing ability of the neural networks. Quantum Elman neural networks have not only the feedforward connection but also the feedback connection. The feedback connection between the hidden nodes and the context nodes belongs to the state feedback in the internal system, which has formed specific dynamic memory performance. Phase space reconstruction theory is the theoretical basis of constructing the forecasting model. The training samples are formed by means of K-nearest neighbor approach. Through the example simulation, the testing results show that the model based on quantum Elman neural networks is better than the model based on the quantum feedforward neural network, the model based on the conventional Elman neural network, and the model based on the conventional feedforward neural network. So the proposed model can effectively improve the prediction accuracy. The research in the paper makes a theoretical foundation for the practical engineering application of the short-term load forecasting model based on quantum Elman neural networks.

A Link-Based Cluster Ensemble Approach For Improved Gene Expression Data Analysis

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P.Balaji

2015-01-01

Full Text Available Abstract It is difficult from possibilities to select a most suitable effective way of clustering algorithm and its dataset for a defined set of gene expression data because we have a huge number of ways and huge number of gene expressions. At present many researchers are preferring to use hierarchical clustering in different forms this is no more totally optimal. Cluster ensemble research can solve this type of problem by automatically merging multiple data partitions from a wide range of different clusterings of any dimensions to improve both the quality and robustness of the clustering result. But we have many existing ensemble approaches using an association matrix to condense sample-cluster and co-occurrence statistics and relations within the ensemble are encapsulated only at raw level while the existing among clusters are totally discriminated. Finding these missing associations can greatly expand the capability of those ensemble methodologies for microarray data clustering. We propose general K-means cluster ensemble approach for the clustering of general categorical data into required number of partitions.

Symmetric minimally entangled typical thermal states, grand-canonical ensembles, and the influence of the collapse bases

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Binder, Moritz; Barthel, Thomas

Based on DMRG, strongly correlated quantum many-body systems at finite temperatures can be simulated by sampling over a certain class of pure matrix product states (MPS) called minimally entangled typical thermal states (METTS). Here, we show how symmetries of the system can be exploited to considerably reduce computation costs in the METTS algorithm. While this is straightforward for the canonical ensemble, we introduce a modification of the algorithm to efficiently simulate the grand-canonical ensemble under utilization of symmetries. In addition, we construct novel symmetry-conserving collapse bases for the transitions in the Markov chain of METTS that improve the speed of convergence of the algorithm by reducing autocorrelations.

Conservative strategy-based ensemble surrogate model for optimal groundwater remediation design at DNAPLs-contaminated sites

Science.gov (United States)

Ouyang, Qi; Lu, Wenxi; Lin, Jin; Deng, Wenbing; Cheng, Weiguo

2017-08-01

The surrogate-based simulation-optimization techniques are frequently used for optimal groundwater remediation design. When this technique is used, surrogate errors caused by surrogate-modeling uncertainty may lead to generation of infeasible designs. In this paper, a conservative strategy that pushes the optimal design into the feasible region was used to address surrogate-modeling uncertainty. In addition, chance-constrained programming (CCP) was adopted to compare with the conservative strategy in addressing this uncertainty. Three methods, multi-gene genetic programming (MGGP), Kriging (KRG) and support vector regression (SVR), were used to construct surrogate models for a time-consuming multi-phase flow model. To improve the performance of the surrogate model, ensemble surrogates were constructed based on combinations of different stand-alone surrogate models. The results show that: (1) the surrogate-modeling uncertainty was successfully addressed by the conservative strategy, which means that this method is promising for addressing surrogate-modeling uncertainty. (2) The ensemble surrogate model that combines MGGP with KRG showed the most favorable performance, which indicates that this ensemble surrogate can utilize both stand-alone surrogate models to improve the performance of the surrogate model.

Protein folding simulations by generalized-ensemble algorithms.

Science.gov (United States)

Yoda, Takao; Sugita, Yuji; Okamoto, Yuko

2014-01-01

In the protein folding problem, conventional simulations in physical statistical mechanical ensembles, such as the canonical ensemble with fixed temperature, face a great difficulty. This is because there exist a huge number of local-minimum-energy states in the system and the conventional simulations tend to get trapped in these states, giving wrong results. Generalized-ensemble algorithms are based on artificial unphysical ensembles and overcome the above difficulty by performing random walks in potential energy, volume, and other physical quantities or their corresponding conjugate parameters such as temperature, pressure, etc. The advantage of generalized-ensemble simulations lies in the fact that they not only avoid getting trapped in states of energy local minima but also allows the calculations of physical quantities as functions of temperature or other parameters from a single simulation run. In this article we review the generalized-ensemble algorithms. Four examples, multicanonical algorithm, replica-exchange method, replica-exchange multicanonical algorithm, and multicanonical replica-exchange method, are described in detail. Examples of their applications to the protein folding problem are presented.

A Novel Hybrid Data-Driven Model for Daily Land Surface Temperature Forecasting Using Long Short-Term Memory Neural Network Based on Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition

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Xike Zhang

2018-05-01

Full Text Available Daily land surface temperature (LST forecasting is of great significance for application in climate-related, agricultural, eco-environmental, or industrial studies. Hybrid data-driven prediction models using Ensemble Empirical Mode Composition (EEMD coupled with Machine Learning (ML algorithms are useful for achieving these purposes because they can reduce the difficulty of modeling, require less history data, are easy to develop, and are less complex than physical models. In this article, a computationally simple, less data-intensive, fast and efficient novel hybrid data-driven model called the EEMD Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM neural network, namely EEMD-LSTM, is proposed to reduce the difficulty of modeling and to improve prediction accuracy. The daily LST data series from the Mapoling and Zhijaing stations in the Dongting Lake basin, central south China, from 1 January 2014 to 31 December 2016 is used as a case study. The EEMD is firstly employed to decompose the original daily LST data series into many Intrinsic Mode Functions (IMFs and a single residue item. Then, the Partial Autocorrelation Function (PACF is used to obtain the number of input data sample points for LSTM models. Next, the LSTM models are constructed to predict the decompositions. All the predicted results of the decompositions are aggregated as the final daily LST. Finally, the prediction performance of the hybrid EEMD-LSTM model is assessed in terms of the Mean Square Error (MSE, Mean Absolute Error (MAE, Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE, Root Mean Square Error (RMSE, Pearson Correlation Coefficient (CC and Nash-Sutcliffe Coefficient of Efficiency (NSCE. To validate the hybrid data-driven model, the hybrid EEMD-LSTM model is compared with the Recurrent Neural Network (RNN, LSTM and Empirical Mode Decomposition (EMD coupled with RNN, EMD-LSTM and EEMD-RNN models, and their comparison results demonstrate that the hybrid EEMD-LSTM model performs better than the other

A Novel Hybrid Data-Driven Model for Daily Land Surface Temperature Forecasting Using Long Short-Term Memory Neural Network Based on Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition.

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Xike; Zhang, Qiuwen; Zhang, Gui; Nie, Zhiping; Gui, Zifan; Que, Huafei

2018-05-21

Daily land surface temperature (LST) forecasting is of great significance for application in climate-related, agricultural, eco-environmental, or industrial studies. Hybrid data-driven prediction models using Ensemble Empirical Mode Composition (EEMD) coupled with Machine Learning (ML) algorithms are useful for achieving these purposes because they can reduce the difficulty of modeling, require less history data, are easy to develop, and are less complex than physical models. In this article, a computationally simple, less data-intensive, fast and efficient novel hybrid data-driven model called the EEMD Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) neural network, namely EEMD-LSTM, is proposed to reduce the difficulty of modeling and to improve prediction accuracy. The daily LST data series from the Mapoling and Zhijaing stations in the Dongting Lake basin, central south China, from 1 January 2014 to 31 December 2016 is used as a case study. The EEMD is firstly employed to decompose the original daily LST data series into many Intrinsic Mode Functions (IMFs) and a single residue item. Then, the Partial Autocorrelation Function (PACF) is used to obtain the number of input data sample points for LSTM models. Next, the LSTM models are constructed to predict the decompositions. All the predicted results of the decompositions are aggregated as the final daily LST. Finally, the prediction performance of the hybrid EEMD-LSTM model is assessed in terms of the Mean Square Error (MSE), Mean Absolute Error (MAE), Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE), Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), Pearson Correlation Coefficient (CC) and Nash-Sutcliffe Coefficient of Efficiency (NSCE). To validate the hybrid data-driven model, the hybrid EEMD-LSTM model is compared with the Recurrent Neural Network (RNN), LSTM and Empirical Mode Decomposition (EMD) coupled with RNN, EMD-LSTM and EEMD-RNN models, and their comparison results demonstrate that the hybrid EEMD-LSTM model performs better than the other five

Ensembl 2004.

Science.gov (United States)

Birney, E; Andrews, D; Bevan, P; Caccamo, M; Cameron, G; Chen, Y; Clarke, L; Coates, G; Cox, T; Cuff, J; Curwen, V; Cutts, T; Down, T; Durbin, R; Eyras, E; Fernandez-Suarez, X M; Gane, P; Gibbins, B; Gilbert, J; Hammond, M; Hotz, H; Iyer, V; Kahari, A; Jekosch, K; Kasprzyk, A; Keefe, D; Keenan, S; Lehvaslaiho, H; McVicker, G; Melsopp, C; Meidl, P; Mongin, E; Pettett, R; Potter, S; Proctor, G; Rae, M; Searle, S; Slater, G; Smedley, D; Smith, J; Spooner, W; Stabenau, A; Stalker, J; Storey, R; Ureta-Vidal, A; Woodwark, C; Clamp, M; Hubbard, T

2004-01-01

The Ensembl (http://www.ensembl.org/) database project provides a bioinformatics framework to organize biology around the sequences of large genomes. It is a comprehensive and integrated source of annotation of large genome sequences, available via interactive website, web services or flat files. As well as being one of the leading sources of genome annotation, Ensembl is an open source software engineering project to develop a portable system able to handle very large genomes and associated requirements. The facilities of the system range from sequence analysis to data storage and visualization and installations exist around the world both in companies and at academic sites. With a total of nine genome sequences available from Ensembl and more genomes to follow, recent developments have focused mainly on closer integration between genomes and external data.

A Neural Network-Based Interval Pattern Matcher

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Jing Lu

2015-07-01

Full Text Available One of the most important roles in the machine learning area is to classify, and neural networks are very important classifiers. However, traditional neural networks cannot identify intervals, let alone classify them. To improve their identification ability, we propose a neural network-based interval matcher in our paper. After summarizing the theoretical construction of the model, we take a simple and a practical weather forecasting experiment, which show that the recognizer accuracy reaches 100% and that is promising.

Classifying medical relations in clinical text via convolutional neural networks.

Science.gov (United States)

He, Bin; Guan, Yi; Dai, Rui

2018-05-16

Deep learning research on relation classification has achieved solid performance in the general domain. This study proposes a convolutional neural network (CNN) architecture with a multi-pooling operation for medical relation classification on clinical records and explores a loss function with a category-level constraint matrix. Experiments using the 2010 i2b2/VA relation corpus demonstrate these models, which do not depend on any external features, outperform previous single-model methods and our best model is competitive with the existing ensemble-based method. Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier B.V.

An Ensemble Approach to Knowledge-Based Intensity-Modulated Radiation Therapy Planning

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Jiahan Zhang

2018-03-01

Full Text Available Knowledge-based planning (KBP utilizes experienced planners’ knowledge embedded in prior plans to estimate optimal achievable dose volume histogram (DVH of new cases. In the regression-based KBP framework, previously planned patients’ anatomical features and DVHs are extracted, and prior knowledge is summarized as the regression coefficients that transform features to organ-at-risk DVH predictions. In our study, we find that in different settings, different regression methods work better. To improve the robustness of KBP models, we propose an ensemble method that combines the strengths of various linear regression models, including stepwise, lasso, elastic net, and ridge regression. In the ensemble approach, we first obtain individual model prediction metadata using in-training-set leave-one-out cross validation. A constrained optimization is subsequently performed to decide individual model weights. The metadata is also used to filter out impactful training set outliers. We evaluate our method on a fresh set of retrospectively retrieved anonymized prostate intensity-modulated radiation therapy (IMRT cases and head and neck IMRT cases. The proposed approach is more robust against small training set size, wrongly labeled cases, and dosimetric inferior plans, compared with other individual models. In summary, we believe the improved robustness makes the proposed method more suitable for clinical settings than individual models.

AUC-based biomarker ensemble with an application on gene scores predicting low bone mineral density.

Science.gov (United States)

Zhao, X G; Dai, W; Li, Y; Tian, L

2011-11-01

The area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve (AUC), long regarded as a 'golden' measure for the predictiveness of a continuous score, has propelled the need to develop AUC-based predictors. However, the AUC-based ensemble methods are rather scant, largely due to the fact that the associated objective function is neither continuous nor concave. Indeed, there is no reliable numerical algorithm identifying optimal combination of a set of biomarkers to maximize the AUC, especially when the number of biomarkers is large. We have proposed a novel AUC-based statistical ensemble methods for combining multiple biomarkers to differentiate a binary response of interest. Specifically, we propose to replace the non-continuous and non-convex AUC objective function by a convex surrogate loss function, whose minimizer can be efficiently identified. With the established framework, the lasso and other regularization techniques enable feature selections. Extensive simulations have demonstrated the superiority of the new methods to the existing methods. The proposal has been applied to a gene expression dataset to construct gene expression scores to differentiate elderly women with low bone mineral density (BMD) and those with normal BMD. The AUCs of the resulting scores in the independent test dataset has been satisfactory. Aiming for directly maximizing AUC, the proposed AUC-based ensemble method provides an efficient means of generating a stable combination of multiple biomarkers, which is especially useful under the high-dimensional settings. lutian@stanford.edu. Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online.

Optimized Audio Classification and Segmentation Algorithm by Using Ensemble Methods

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Saadia Zahid

2015-01-01

Full Text Available Audio segmentation is a basis for multimedia content analysis which is the most important and widely used application nowadays. An optimized audio classification and segmentation algorithm is presented in this paper that segments a superimposed audio stream on the basis of its content into four main audio types: pure-speech, music, environment sound, and silence. An algorithm is proposed that preserves important audio content and reduces the misclassification rate without using large amount of training data, which handles noise and is suitable for use for real-time applications. Noise in an audio stream is segmented out as environment sound. A hybrid classification approach is used, bagged support vector machines (SVMs with artificial neural networks (ANNs. Audio stream is classified, firstly, into speech and nonspeech segment by using bagged support vector machines; nonspeech segment is further classified into music and environment sound by using artificial neural networks and lastly, speech segment is classified into silence and pure-speech segments on the basis of rule-based classifier. Minimum data is used for training classifier; ensemble methods are used for minimizing misclassification rate and approximately 98% accurate segments are obtained. A fast and efficient algorithm is designed that can be used with real-time multimedia applications.

An Efficient Ensemble Learning Method for Gene Microarray Classification

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Alireza Osareh

2013-01-01

Full Text Available The gene microarray analysis and classification have demonstrated an effective way for the effective diagnosis of diseases and cancers. However, it has been also revealed that the basic classification techniques have intrinsic drawbacks in achieving accurate gene classification and cancer diagnosis. On the other hand, classifier ensembles have received increasing attention in various applications. Here, we address the gene classification issue using RotBoost ensemble methodology. This method is a combination of Rotation Forest and AdaBoost techniques which in turn preserve both desirable features of an ensemble architecture, that is, accuracy and diversity. To select a concise subset of informative genes, 5 different feature selection algorithms are considered. To assess the efficiency of the RotBoost, other nonensemble/ensemble techniques including Decision Trees, Support Vector Machines, Rotation Forest, AdaBoost, and Bagging are also deployed. Experimental results have revealed that the combination of the fast correlation-based feature selection method with ICA-based RotBoost ensemble is highly effective for gene classification. In fact, the proposed method can create ensemble classifiers which outperform not only the classifiers produced by the conventional machine learning but also the classifiers generated by two widely used conventional ensemble learning methods, that is, Bagging and AdaBoost.

Shallow cumuli ensemble statistics for development of a stochastic parameterization

Science.gov (United States)

Sakradzija, Mirjana; Seifert, Axel; Heus, Thijs

2014-05-01

According to a conventional deterministic approach to the parameterization of moist convection in numerical atmospheric models, a given large scale forcing produces an unique response from the unresolved convective processes. This representation leaves out the small-scale variability of convection, as it is known from the empirical studies of deep and shallow convective cloud ensembles, there is a whole distribution of sub-grid states corresponding to the given large scale forcing. Moreover, this distribution gets broader with the increasing model resolution. This behavior is also consistent with our theoretical understanding of a coarse-grained nonlinear system. We propose an approach to represent the variability of the unresolved shallow-convective states, including the dependence of the sub-grid states distribution spread and shape on the model horizontal resolution. Starting from the Gibbs canonical ensemble theory, Craig and Cohen (2006) developed a theory for the fluctuations in a deep convective ensemble. The micro-states of a deep convective cloud ensemble are characterized by the cloud-base mass flux, which, according to the theory, is exponentially distributed (Boltzmann distribution). Following their work, we study the shallow cumulus ensemble statistics and the distribution of the cloud-base mass flux. We employ a Large-Eddy Simulation model (LES) and a cloud tracking algorithm, followed by a conditional sampling of clouds at the cloud base level, to retrieve the information about the individual cloud life cycles and the cloud ensemble as a whole. In the case of shallow cumulus cloud ensemble, the distribution of micro-states is a generalized exponential distribution. Based on the empirical and theoretical findings, a stochastic model has been developed to simulate the shallow convective cloud ensemble and to test the convective ensemble theory. Stochastic model simulates a compound random process, with the number of convective elements drawn from a

Advanced Atmospheric Ensemble Modeling Techniques

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Buckley, R. [Savannah River Site (SRS), Aiken, SC (United States). Savannah River National Lab. (SRNL); Chiswell, S. [Savannah River Site (SRS), Aiken, SC (United States). Savannah River National Lab. (SRNL); Kurzeja, R. [Savannah River Site (SRS), Aiken, SC (United States). Savannah River National Lab. (SRNL); Maze, G. [Savannah River Site (SRS), Aiken, SC (United States). Savannah River National Lab. (SRNL); Viner, B. [Savannah River Site (SRS), Aiken, SC (United States). Savannah River National Lab. (SRNL); Werth, D. [Savannah River Site (SRS), Aiken, SC (United States). Savannah River National Lab. (SRNL)

2017-09-29

Ensemble modeling (EM), the creation of multiple atmospheric simulations for a given time period, has become an essential tool for characterizing uncertainties in model predictions. We explore two novel ensemble modeling techniques: (1) perturbation of model parameters (Adaptive Programming, AP), and (2) data assimilation (Ensemble Kalman Filter, EnKF). The current research is an extension to work from last year and examines transport on a small spatial scale (<100 km) in complex terrain, for more rigorous testing of the ensemble technique. Two different release cases were studied, a coastal release (SF6) and an inland release (Freon) which consisted of two release times. Observations of tracer concentration and meteorology are used to judge the ensemble results. In addition, adaptive grid techniques have been developed to reduce required computing resources for transport calculations. Using a 20- member ensemble, the standard approach generated downwind transport that was quantitatively good for both releases; however, the EnKF method produced additional improvement for the coastal release where the spatial and temporal differences due to interior valley heating lead to the inland movement of the plume. The AP technique showed improvements for both release cases, with more improvement shown in the inland release. This research demonstrated that transport accuracy can be improved when models are adapted to a particular location/time or when important local data is assimilated into the simulation and enhances SRNL’s capability in atmospheric transport modeling in support of its current customer base and local site missions, as well as our ability to attract new customers within the intelligence community.

An Overview of Bayesian Methods for Neural Spike Train Analysis

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Zhe Chen

2013-01-01

Full Text Available Neural spike train analysis is an important task in computational neuroscience which aims to understand neural mechanisms and gain insights into neural circuits. With the advancement of multielectrode recording and imaging technologies, it has become increasingly demanding to develop statistical tools for analyzing large neuronal ensemble spike activity. Here we present a tutorial overview of Bayesian methods and their representative applications in neural spike train analysis, at both single neuron and population levels. On the theoretical side, we focus on various approximate Bayesian inference techniques as applied to latent state and parameter estimation. On the application side, the topics include spike sorting, tuning curve estimation, neural encoding and decoding, deconvolution of spike trains from calcium imaging signals, and inference of neuronal functional connectivity and synchrony. Some research challenges and opportunities for neural spike train analysis are discussed.

Data assimilation in integrated hydrological modeling using ensemble Kalman filtering

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Rasmussen, Jørn; Madsen, H.; Jensen, Karsten Høgh

2015-01-01

Groundwater head and stream discharge is assimilated using the ensemble transform Kalman filter in an integrated hydrological model with the aim of studying the relationship between the filter performance and the ensemble size. In an attempt to reduce the required number of ensemble members...... and estimating parameters requires a much larger ensemble size than just assimilating groundwater head observations. However, the required ensemble size can be greatly reduced with the use of adaptive localization, which by far outperforms distance-based localization. The study is conducted using synthetic data...

An Attractor-Based Complexity Measurement for Boolean Recurrent Neural Networks

Science.gov (United States)

Cabessa, Jérémie; Villa, Alessandro E. P.

2014-01-01

We provide a novel refined attractor-based complexity measurement for Boolean recurrent neural networks that represents an assessment of their computational power in terms of the significance of their attractor dynamics. This complexity measurement is achieved by first proving a computational equivalence between Boolean recurrent neural networks and some specific class of -automata, and then translating the most refined classification of -automata to the Boolean neural network context. As a result, a hierarchical classification of Boolean neural networks based on their attractive dynamics is obtained, thus providing a novel refined attractor-based complexity measurement for Boolean recurrent neural networks. These results provide new theoretical insights to the computational and dynamical capabilities of neural networks according to their attractive potentialities. An application of our findings is illustrated by the analysis of the dynamics of a simplified model of the basal ganglia-thalamocortical network simulated by a Boolean recurrent neural network. This example shows the significance of measuring network complexity, and how our results bear new founding elements for the understanding of the complexity of real brain circuits. PMID:24727866

Bioactive focus in conformational ensembles: a pluralistic approach

Science.gov (United States)

Habgood, Matthew

2017-12-01

Computational generation of conformational ensembles is key to contemporary drug design. Selecting the members of the ensemble that will approximate the conformation most likely to bind to a desired target (the bioactive conformation) is difficult, given that the potential energy usually used to generate and rank the ensemble is a notoriously poor discriminator between bioactive and non-bioactive conformations. In this study an approach to generating a focused ensemble is proposed in which each conformation is assigned multiple rankings based not just on potential energy but also on solvation energy, hydrophobic or hydrophilic interaction energy, radius of gyration, and on a statistical potential derived from Cambridge Structural Database data. The best ranked structures derived from each system are then assembled into a new ensemble that is shown to be better focused on bioactive conformations. This pluralistic approach is tested on ensembles generated by the Molecular Operating Environment's Low Mode Molecular Dynamics module, and by the Cambridge Crystallographic Data Centre's conformation generator software.

Comparison of ensemble post-processing approaches, based on empirical and dynamical error modelisation of rainfall-runoff model forecasts

Science.gov (United States)

Chardon, J.; Mathevet, T.; Le Lay, M.; Gailhard, J.

2012-04-01

In the context of a national energy company (EDF : Electricité de France), hydro-meteorological forecasts are necessary to ensure safety and security of installations, meet environmental standards and improve water ressources management and decision making. Hydrological ensemble forecasts allow a better representation of meteorological and hydrological forecasts uncertainties and improve human expertise of hydrological forecasts, which is essential to synthesize available informations, coming from different meteorological and hydrological models and human experience. An operational hydrological ensemble forecasting chain has been developed at EDF since 2008 and is being used since 2010 on more than 30 watersheds in France. This ensemble forecasting chain is characterized ensemble pre-processing (rainfall and temperature) and post-processing (streamflow), where a large human expertise is solicited. The aim of this paper is to compare 2 hydrological ensemble post-processing methods developed at EDF in order improve ensemble forecasts reliability (similar to Monatanari &Brath, 2004; Schaefli et al., 2007). The aim of the post-processing methods is to dress hydrological ensemble forecasts with hydrological model uncertainties, based on perfect forecasts. The first method (called empirical approach) is based on a statistical modelisation of empirical error of perfect forecasts, by streamflow sub-samples of quantile class and lead-time. The second method (called dynamical approach) is based on streamflow sub-samples of quantile class and streamflow variation, and lead-time. On a set of 20 watersheds used for operational forecasts, results show that both approaches are necessary to ensure a good post-processing of hydrological ensemble, allowing a good improvement of reliability, skill and sharpness of ensemble forecasts. The comparison of the empirical and dynamical approaches shows the limits of the empirical approach which is not able to take into account hydrological

Enhancing COSMO-DE ensemble forecasts by inexpensive techniques

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Zied Ben Bouallègue

2013-02-01

Full Text Available COSMO-DE-EPS, a convection-permitting ensemble prediction system based on the high-resolution numerical weather prediction model COSMO-DE, is pre-operational since December 2010, providing probabilistic forecasts which cover Germany. This ensemble system comprises 20 members based on variations of the lateral boundary conditions, the physics parameterizations and the initial conditions. In order to increase the sample size in a computationally inexpensive way, COSMO-DE-EPS is combined with alternative ensemble techniques: the neighborhood method and the time-lagged approach. Their impact on the quality of the resulting probabilistic forecasts is assessed. Objective verification is performed over a six months period, scores based on the Brier score and its decomposition are shown for June 2011. The combination of the ensemble system with the alternative approaches improves probabilistic forecasts of precipitation in particular for high precipitation thresholds. Moreover, combining COSMO-DE-EPS with only the time-lagged approach improves the skill of area probabilities for precipitation and does not deteriorate the skill of 2 m-temperature and wind gusts forecasts.

An ensemble deep learning based approach for red lesion detection in fundus images.

Science.gov (United States)

Orlando, José Ignacio; Prokofyeva, Elena; Del Fresno, Mariana; Blaschko, Matthew B

2018-01-01

Diabetic retinopathy (DR) is one of the leading causes of preventable blindness in the world. Its earliest sign are red lesions, a general term that groups both microaneurysms (MAs) and hemorrhages (HEs). In daily clinical practice, these lesions are manually detected by physicians using fundus photographs. However, this task is tedious and time consuming, and requires an intensive effort due to the small size of the lesions and their lack of contrast. Computer-assisted diagnosis of DR based on red lesion detection is being actively explored due to its improvement effects both in clinicians consistency and accuracy. Moreover, it provides comprehensive feedback that is easy to assess by the physicians. Several methods for detecting red lesions have been proposed in the literature, most of them based on characterizing lesion candidates using hand crafted features, and classifying them into true or false positive detections. Deep learning based approaches, by contrast, are scarce in this domain due to the high expense of annotating the lesions manually. In this paper we propose a novel method for red lesion detection based on combining both deep learned and domain knowledge. Features learned by a convolutional neural network (CNN) are augmented by incorporating hand crafted features. Such ensemble vector of descriptors is used afterwards to identify true lesion candidates using a Random Forest classifier. We empirically observed that combining both sources of information significantly improve results with respect to using each approach separately. Furthermore, our method reported the highest performance on a per-lesion basis on DIARETDB1 and e-ophtha, and for screening and need for referral on MESSIDOR compared to a second human expert. Results highlight the fact that integrating manually engineered approaches with deep learned features is relevant to improve results when the networks are trained from lesion-level annotated data. An open source implementation of our

Creating ensembles of decision trees through sampling

Science.gov (United States)

Kamath, Chandrika; Cantu-Paz, Erick

2005-08-30

A system for decision tree ensembles that includes a module to read the data, a module to sort the data, a module to evaluate a potential split of the data according to some criterion using a random sample of the data, a module to split the data, and a module to combine multiple decision trees in ensembles. The decision tree method is based on statistical sampling techniques and includes the steps of reading the data; sorting the data; evaluating a potential split according to some criterion using a random sample of the data, splitting the data, and combining multiple decision trees in ensembles.

Studies on the Belle II L1 CDC track trigger's z-vertex resolution with neural networks

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Skambraks, Sebastian; Neuhaus, Sara; Chen, Yang [Technische Universitaet Muenchen (Germany); Abudinen, Fernando; Kiesling, Christian [Max-Planck-Institut fuer Physik, Muenchen (Germany)

2015-07-01

We present the use of a neural network ensemble for the first level (L1) track trigger subsystem of Belle II. Our method employs hit and drift time information from the Central Drift Chamber (CDC). Estimating the z-coordinates of the vertex positions improves the signal to background ratio in the recorded data. Especially beam induced background can clearly be rejected, allowing to relax the 2D trigger conditions and thus enhancing the physics gain for low multiplicity events (e.g. tau pair production). Neural networks enable an improvement of the z-vertex resolution compared to linear least squares track fitting. As general function approximators, they are capable of learning nonlinearities solely from a training dataset. We propose a combined setup, integrating the benefits of the linear fit and enriching it with the nonlinear prediction capabilities of the neural networks. The precise z-vertices of single tracks are estimated by an ensemble of local expert neural networks, specialized to sectors in the track parameter phase space. A comparison is presented, demonstrating the differences of the linear fit and the neural network approach.

Deciphering Neural Codes of Memory during Sleep

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, Zhe; Wilson, Matthew A.

2017-01-01

Memories of experiences are stored in the cerebral cortex. Sleep is critical for consolidating hippocampal memory of wake experiences into the neocortex. Understanding representations of neural codes of hippocampal-neocortical networks during sleep would reveal important circuit mechanisms on memory consolidation, and provide novel insights into memory and dreams. Although sleep-associated ensemble spike activity has been investigated, identifying the content of memory in sleep remains challenging. Here, we revisit important experimental findings on sleep-associated memory (i.e., neural activity patterns in sleep that reflect memory processing) and review computational approaches for analyzing sleep-associated neural codes (SANC). We focus on two analysis paradigms for sleep-associated memory, and propose a new unsupervised learning framework (“memory first, meaning later”) for unbiased assessment of SANC. PMID:28390699

Entropy of network ensembles

Science.gov (United States)

Bianconi, Ginestra

2009-03-01

In this paper we generalize the concept of random networks to describe network ensembles with nontrivial features by a statistical mechanics approach. This framework is able to describe undirected and directed network ensembles as well as weighted network ensembles. These networks might have nontrivial community structure or, in the case of networks embedded in a given space, they might have a link probability with a nontrivial dependence on the distance between the nodes. These ensembles are characterized by their entropy, which evaluates the cardinality of networks in the ensemble. In particular, in this paper we define and evaluate the structural entropy, i.e., the entropy of the ensembles of undirected uncorrelated simple networks with given degree sequence. We stress the apparent paradox that scale-free degree distributions are characterized by having small structural entropy while they are so widely encountered in natural, social, and technological complex systems. We propose a solution to the paradox by proving that scale-free degree distributions are the most likely degree distribution with the corresponding value of the structural entropy. Finally, the general framework we present in this paper is able to describe microcanonical ensembles of networks as well as canonical or hidden-variable network ensembles with significant implications for the formulation of network-constructing algorithms.

Reprogramming movements: Extraction of motor intentions from cortical ensemble activity when movement goals change

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Peter James Ifft

2012-07-01

Full Text Available The ability to inhibit unwanted movements and change motor plans is essential for behaviors of advanced organisms. The neural mechanisms by which the primate motor system rejects undesired actions have received much attention during the last decade, but it is not well understood how this neural function could be utilized to improve the efficiency of brain-machine interfaces (BMIs. Here we employed linear discriminant analysis (LDA and a Wiener filter to extract motor plan transitions from the activity of ensembles of sensorimotor cortex neurons. Two rhesus monkeys, chronically implanted with multielectrode arrays in primary motor (M1 and primary sensory (S1 cortices, were overtrained to produce reaching movements with a joystick towards visual targets upon their presentation. Then, the behavioral task was modified to include a distracting target that flashed for 50, 150 or 250 ms (25% of trials each followed by the true target that appeared at a different screen location. In the remaining 25% of trials, the initial target stayed on the screen and was the target to be approached. M1 and S1 neuronal activity represented both the true and distracting targets, even for the shortest duration of the distracting event. This dual representation persisted both when the monkey initiated movements towards the distracting target and then made corrections and when they moved directly towards the second, true target. The Wiener filter effectively decoded the location of the true target, whereas the LDA classifier extracted the location of both targets from ensembles of 50-250 neurons. Based on these results, we suggest developing real-time BMIs that inhibit unwanted movements represented by brain activity while enacting the desired motor outcome concomitantly.

Ensembl variation resources

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Marin-Garcia Pablo

2010-05-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background The maturing field of genomics is rapidly increasing the number of sequenced genomes and producing more information from those previously sequenced. Much of this additional information is variation data derived from sampling multiple individuals of a given species with the goal of discovering new variants and characterising the population frequencies of the variants that are already known. These data have immense value for many studies, including those designed to understand evolution and connect genotype to phenotype. Maximising the utility of the data requires that it be stored in an accessible manner that facilitates the integration of variation data with other genome resources such as gene annotation and comparative genomics. Description The Ensembl project provides comprehensive and integrated variation resources for a wide variety of chordate genomes. This paper provides a detailed description of the sources of data and the methods for creating the Ensembl variation databases. It also explores the utility of the information by explaining the range of query options available, from using interactive web displays, to online data mining tools and connecting directly to the data servers programmatically. It gives a good overview of the variation resources and future plans for expanding the variation data within Ensembl. Conclusions Variation data is an important key to understanding the functional and phenotypic differences between individuals. The development of new sequencing and genotyping technologies is greatly increasing the amount of variation data known for almost all genomes. The Ensembl variation resources are integrated into the Ensembl genome browser and provide a comprehensive way to access this data in the context of a widely used genome bioinformatics system. All Ensembl data is freely available at http://www.ensembl.org and from the public MySQL database server at ensembldb.ensembl.org.

Generation of scenarios from calibrated ensemble forecasts with a dual ensemble copula coupling approach

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Ben Bouallègue, Zied; Heppelmann, Tobias; Theis, Susanne E.

2016-01-01

the original ensemble forecasts. Based on the assumption of error stationarity, parametric methods aim to fully describe the forecast dependence structures. In this study, the concept of ECC is combined with past data statistics in order to account for the autocorrelation of the forecast error. The new...... approach, called d-ECC, is applied to wind forecasts from the high resolution ensemble system COSMO-DE-EPS run operationally at the German weather service. Scenarios generated by ECC and d-ECC are compared and assessed in the form of time series by means of multivariate verification tools and in a product...

NYYD Ensemble

Index Scriptorium Estoniae

2002-01-01

NYYD Ensemble'i duost Traksmann - Lukk E.-S. Tüüri teosega "Symbiosis", mis on salvestatud ka hiljuti ilmunud NYYD Ensemble'i CDle. 2. märtsil Rakvere Teatri väikeses saalis ja 3. märtsil Rotermanni Soolalaos, kavas Tüür, Kaumann, Berio, Reich, Yun, Hauta-aho, Buckinx

Modality-Driven Classification and Visualization of Ensemble Variance

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Bensema, Kevin; Gosink, Luke; Obermaier, Harald; Joy, Kenneth I.

2016-10-01

Advances in computational power now enable domain scientists to address conceptual and parametric uncertainty by running simulations multiple times in order to sufficiently sample the uncertain input space. While this approach helps address conceptual and parametric uncertainties, the ensemble datasets produced by this technique present a special challenge to visualization researchers as the ensemble dataset records a distribution of possible values for each location in the domain. Contemporary visualization approaches that rely solely on summary statistics (e.g., mean and variance) cannot convey the detailed information encoded in ensemble distributions that are paramount to ensemble analysis; summary statistics provide no information about modality classification and modality persistence. To address this problem, we propose a novel technique that classifies high-variance locations based on the modality of the distribution of ensemble predictions. Additionally, we develop a set of confidence metrics to inform the end-user of the quality of fit between the distribution at a given location and its assigned class. We apply a similar method to time-varying ensembles to illustrate the relationship between peak variance and bimodal or multimodal behavior. These classification schemes enable a deeper understanding of the behavior of the ensemble members by distinguishing between distributions that can be described by a single tendency and distributions which reflect divergent trends in the ensemble.

Development of multimodel ensemble based district level medium ...

Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

tively by computing the anomaly correlation coef- ficient between the predicted rainfall and observed rainfall. High resolution (lat./long.) gridded data ..... particularly in the prediction of intensity and mesoscale rainfall features causing inland flooding. During recent years, Ensemble. Prediction System (EPS) has emerged as ...

A novel hybrid decomposition-and-ensemble model based on CEEMD and GWO for short-term PM2.5 concentration forecasting

Science.gov (United States)

Niu, Mingfei; Wang, Yufang; Sun, Shaolong; Li, Yongwu

2016-06-01

To enhance prediction reliability and accuracy, a hybrid model based on the promising principle of "decomposition and ensemble" and a recently proposed meta-heuristic called grey wolf optimizer (GWO) is introduced for daily PM2.5 concentration forecasting. Compared with existing PM2.5 forecasting methods, this proposed model has improved the prediction accuracy and hit rates of directional prediction. The proposed model involves three main steps, i.e., decomposing the original PM2.5 series into several intrinsic mode functions (IMFs) via complementary ensemble empirical mode decomposition (CEEMD) for simplifying the complex data; individually predicting each IMF with support vector regression (SVR) optimized by GWO; integrating all predicted IMFs for the ensemble result as the final prediction by another SVR optimized by GWO. Seven benchmark models, including single artificial intelligence (AI) models, other decomposition-ensemble models with different decomposition methods and models with the same decomposition-ensemble method but optimized by different algorithms, are considered to verify the superiority of the proposed hybrid model. The empirical study indicates that the proposed hybrid decomposition-ensemble model is remarkably superior to all considered benchmark models for its higher prediction accuracy and hit rates of directional prediction.

Deep Neural Network-Based Chinese Semantic Role Labeling

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

ZHENG Xiaoqing; CHEN Jun; SHANG Guoqiang

2017-01-01

A recent trend in machine learning is to use deep architec-tures to discover multiple levels of features from data, which has achieved impressive results on various natural language processing (NLP) tasks. We propose a deep neural network-based solution to Chinese semantic role labeling (SRL) with its application on message analysis. The solution adopts a six-step strategy: text normalization, named entity recognition (NER), Chinese word segmentation and part-of-speech (POS) tagging, theme classification, SRL, and slot filling. For each step, a novel deep neural network - based model is designed and optimized, particularly for smart phone applications. Ex-periment results on all the NLP sub - tasks of the solution show that the proposed neural networks achieve state-of-the-art performance with the minimal computational cost. The speed advantage of deep neural networks makes them more competitive for large-scale applications or applications requir-ing real-time response, highlighting the potential of the pro-posed solution for practical NLP systems.

Assessing the predictive capability of randomized tree-based ensembles in streamflow modelling

Science.gov (United States)

Galelli, S.; Castelletti, A.

2013-07-01

Combining randomization methods with ensemble prediction is emerging as an effective option to balance accuracy and computational efficiency in data-driven modelling. In this paper, we investigate the prediction capability of extremely randomized trees (Extra-Trees), in terms of accuracy, explanation ability and computational efficiency, in a streamflow modelling exercise. Extra-Trees are a totally randomized tree-based ensemble method that (i) alleviates the poor generalisation property and tendency to overfitting of traditional standalone decision trees (e.g. CART); (ii) is computationally efficient; and, (iii) allows to infer the relative importance of the input variables, which might help in the ex-post physical interpretation of the model. The Extra-Trees potential is analysed on two real-world case studies - Marina catchment (Singapore) and Canning River (Western Australia) - representing two different morphoclimatic contexts. The evaluation is performed against other tree-based methods (CART and M5) and parametric data-driven approaches (ANNs and multiple linear regression). Results show that Extra-Trees perform comparatively well to the best of the benchmarks (i.e. M5) in both the watersheds, while outperforming the other approaches in terms of computational requirement when adopted on large datasets. In addition, the ranking of the input variable provided can be given a physically meaningful interpretation.

Ensemble Kalman filtering with one-step-ahead smoothing

KAUST Repository

Raboudi, Naila F.

2018-01-11

The ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) is widely used for sequential data assimilation. It operates as a succession of forecast and analysis steps. In realistic large-scale applications, EnKFs are implemented with small ensembles and poorly known model error statistics. This limits their representativeness of the background error covariances and, thus, their performance. This work explores the efficiency of the one-step-ahead (OSA) smoothing formulation of the Bayesian filtering problem to enhance the data assimilation performance of EnKFs. Filtering with OSA smoothing introduces an updated step with future observations, conditioning the ensemble sampling with more information. This should provide an improved background ensemble in the analysis step, which may help to mitigate the suboptimal character of EnKF-based methods. Here, the authors demonstrate the efficiency of a stochastic EnKF with OSA smoothing for state estimation. They then introduce a deterministic-like EnKF-OSA based on the singular evolutive interpolated ensemble Kalman (SEIK) filter. The authors show that the proposed SEIK-OSA outperforms both SEIK, as it efficiently exploits the data twice, and the stochastic EnKF-OSA, as it avoids observational error undersampling. They present extensive assimilation results from numerical experiments conducted with the Lorenz-96 model to demonstrate SEIK-OSA’s capabilities.

Analysis of ensemble learning using simple perceptrons based on online learning theory

Science.gov (United States)

Miyoshi, Seiji; Hara, Kazuyuki; Okada, Masato

2005-03-01

Ensemble learning of K nonlinear perceptrons, which determine their outputs by sign functions, is discussed within the framework of online learning and statistical mechanics. One purpose of statistical learning theory is to theoretically obtain the generalization error. This paper shows that ensemble generalization error can be calculated by using two order parameters, that is, the similarity between a teacher and a student, and the similarity among students. The differential equations that describe the dynamical behaviors of these order parameters are derived in the case of general learning rules. The concrete forms of these differential equations are derived analytically in the cases of three well-known rules: Hebbian learning, perceptron learning, and AdaTron (adaptive perceptron) learning. Ensemble generalization errors of these three rules are calculated by using the results determined by solving their differential equations. As a result, these three rules show different characteristics in their affinity for ensemble learning, that is “maintaining variety among students.” Results show that AdaTron learning is superior to the other two rules with respect to that affinity.

Photosensitive-polyimide based method for fabricating various neural electrode architectures

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yasuhiro X Kato

2012-06-01

Full Text Available An extensive photosensitive polyimide (PSPI-based method for designing and fabricating various neural electrode architectures was developed. The method aims to broaden the design flexibility and expand the fabrication capability for neural electrodes to improve the quality of recorded signals and integrate other functions. After characterizing PSPI’s properties for micromachining processes, we successfully designed and fabricated various neural electrodes even on a non-flat substrate using only one PSPI as an insulation material and without the time-consuming dry etching processes. The fabricated neural electrodes were an electrocorticogram electrode, a mesh intracortical electrode with a unique lattice-like mesh structure to fixate neural tissue, and a guide cannula electrode with recording microelectrodes placed on the curved surface of a guide cannula as a microdialysis probe. In vivo neural recordings using anesthetized rats demonstrated that these electrodes can be used to record neural activities repeatedly without any breakage and mechanical failures, which potentially promises stable recordings for long periods of time. These successes make us believe that this PSPI-based fabrication is a powerful method, permitting flexible design and easy optimization of electrode architectures for a variety of electrophysiological experimental research with improved neural recording performance.

Representing Color Ensembles.

Science.gov (United States)

Chetverikov, Andrey; Campana, Gianluca; Kristjánsson, Árni

2017-10-01

Colors are rarely uniform, yet little is known about how people represent color distributions. We introduce a new method for studying color ensembles based on intertrial learning in visual search. Participants looked for an oddly colored diamond among diamonds with colors taken from either uniform or Gaussian color distributions. On test trials, the targets had various distances in feature space from the mean of the preceding distractor color distribution. Targets on test trials therefore served as probes into probabilistic representations of distractor colors. Test-trial response times revealed a striking similarity between the physical distribution of colors and their internal representations. The results demonstrate that the visual system represents color ensembles in a more detailed way than previously thought, coding not only mean and variance but, most surprisingly, the actual shape (uniform or Gaussian) of the distribution of colors in the environment.

Reproducing multi-model ensemble average with Ensemble-averaged Reconstructed Forcings (ERF) in regional climate modeling

Science.gov (United States)

Erfanian, A.; Fomenko, L.; Wang, G.

2016-12-01

Multi-model ensemble (MME) average is considered the most reliable for simulating both present-day and future climates. It has been a primary reference for making conclusions in major coordinated studies i.e. IPCC Assessment Reports and CORDEX. The biases of individual models cancel out each other in MME average, enabling the ensemble mean to outperform individual members in simulating the mean climate. This enhancement however comes with tremendous computational cost, which is especially inhibiting for regional climate modeling as model uncertainties can originate from both RCMs and the driving GCMs. Here we propose the Ensemble-based Reconstructed Forcings (ERF) approach to regional climate modeling that achieves a similar level of bias reduction at a fraction of cost compared with the conventional MME approach. The new method constructs a single set of initial and boundary conditions (IBCs) by averaging the IBCs of multiple GCMs, and drives the RCM with this ensemble average of IBCs to conduct a single run. Using a regional climate model (RegCM4.3.4-CLM4.5), we tested the method over West Africa for multiple combination of (up to six) GCMs. Our results indicate that the performance of the ERF method is comparable to that of the MME average in simulating the mean climate. The bias reduction seen in ERF simulations is achieved by using more realistic IBCs in solving the system of equations underlying the RCM physics and dynamics. This endows the new method with a theoretical advantage in addition to reducing computational cost. The ERF output is an unaltered solution of the RCM as opposed to a climate state that might not be physically plausible due to the averaging of multiple solutions with the conventional MME approach. The ERF approach should be considered for use in major international efforts such as CORDEX. Key words: Multi-model ensemble, ensemble analysis, ERF, regional climate modeling

JEnsembl: a version-aware Java API to Ensembl data systems.

Science.gov (United States)

Paterson, Trevor; Law, Andy

2012-11-01

The Ensembl Project provides release-specific Perl APIs for efficient high-level programmatic access to data stored in various Ensembl database schema. Although Perl scripts are perfectly suited for processing large volumes of text-based data, Perl is not ideal for developing large-scale software applications nor embedding in graphical interfaces. The provision of a novel Java API would facilitate type-safe, modular, object-orientated development of new Bioinformatics tools with which to access, analyse and visualize Ensembl data. The JEnsembl API implementation provides basic data retrieval and manipulation functionality from the Core, Compara and Variation databases for all species in Ensembl and EnsemblGenomes and is a platform for the development of a richer API to Ensembl datasources. The JEnsembl architecture uses a text-based configuration module to provide evolving, versioned mappings from database schema to code objects. A single installation of the JEnsembl API can therefore simultaneously and transparently connect to current and previous database instances (such as those in the public archive) thus facilitating better analysis repeatability and allowing 'through time' comparative analyses to be performed. Project development, released code libraries, Maven repository and documentation are hosted at SourceForge (http://jensembl.sourceforge.net).

Reactor pressure vessel embrittlement: Insights from neural network modelling

Science.gov (United States)

Mathew, J.; Parfitt, D.; Wilford, K.; Riddle, N.; Alamaniotis, M.; Chroneos, A.; Fitzpatrick, M. E.

2018-04-01

Irradiation embrittlement of steel pressure vessels is an important consideration for the operation of current and future light water nuclear reactors. In this study we employ an ensemble of artificial neural networks in order to provide predictions of the embrittlement using two literature datasets, one based on US surveillance data and the second from the IVAR experiment. We use these networks to examine trends with input variables and to assess various literature models including compositional effects and the role of flux and temperature. Overall, the networks agree with the existing literature models and we comment on their more general use in predicting irradiation embrittlement.

Prediction based chaos control via a new neural network

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Shen Liqun; Wang Mao; Liu Wanyu; Sun Guanghui

2008-01-01

In this Letter, a new chaos control scheme based on chaos prediction is proposed. To perform chaos prediction, a new neural network architecture for complex nonlinear approximation is proposed. And the difficulty in building and training the neural network is also reduced. Simulation results of Logistic map and Lorenz system show the effectiveness of the proposed chaos control scheme and the proposed neural network

Robust Ensemble Filtering and Its Relation to Covariance Inflation in the Ensemble Kalman Filter

KAUST Repository

Luo, Xiaodong; Hoteit, Ibrahim

2011-01-01

A robust ensemble filtering scheme based on the H∞ filtering theory is proposed. The optimal H∞ filter is derived by minimizing the supremum (or maximum) of a predefined cost function, a criterion different from the minimum variance used

Improving the ensemble-optimization method through covariance-matrix adaptation

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Fonseca, R.M.; Leeuwenburgh, O.; Hof, P.M.J. van den; Jansen, J.D.

2015-01-01

Ensemble optimization (referred to throughout the remainder of the paper as EnOpt) is a rapidly emerging method for reservoirmodel-based production optimization. EnOpt uses an ensemble of controls to approximate the gradient of the objective function with respect to the controls. Current

Imprinting and recalling cortical ensembles.

Science.gov (United States)

Carrillo-Reid, Luis; Yang, Weijian; Bando, Yuki; Peterka, Darcy S; Yuste, Rafael

2016-08-12

Neuronal ensembles are coactive groups of neurons that may represent building blocks of cortical circuits. These ensembles could be formed by Hebbian plasticity, whereby synapses between coactive neurons are strengthened. Here we report that repetitive activation with two-photon optogenetics of neuronal populations from ensembles in the visual cortex of awake mice builds neuronal ensembles that recur spontaneously after being imprinted and do not disrupt preexisting ones. Moreover, imprinted ensembles can be recalled by single- cell stimulation and remain coactive on consecutive days. Our results demonstrate the persistent reconfiguration of cortical circuits by two-photon optogenetics into neuronal ensembles that can perform pattern completion. Copyright © 2016, American Association for the Advancement of Science.

Investigating energy-based pool structure selection in the structure ensemble modeling with experimental distance constraints: The example from a multidomain protein Pub1.

Science.gov (United States)

Zhu, Guanhua; Liu, Wei; Bao, Chenglong; Tong, Dudu; Ji, Hui; Shen, Zuowei; Yang, Daiwen; Lu, Lanyuan

2018-05-01

The structural variations of multidomain proteins with flexible parts mediate many biological processes, and a structure ensemble can be determined by selecting a weighted combination of representative structures from a simulated structure pool, producing the best fit to experimental constraints such as interatomic distance. In this study, a hybrid structure-based and physics-based atomistic force field with an efficient sampling strategy is adopted to simulate a model di-domain protein against experimental paramagnetic relaxation enhancement (PRE) data that correspond to distance constraints. The molecular dynamics simulations produce a wide range of conformations depicted on a protein energy landscape. Subsequently, a conformational ensemble recovered with low-energy structures and the minimum-size restraint is identified in good agreement with experimental PRE rates, and the result is also supported by chemical shift perturbations and small-angle X-ray scattering data. It is illustrated that the regularizations of energy and ensemble-size prevent an arbitrary interpretation of protein conformations. Moreover, energy is found to serve as a critical control to refine the structure pool and prevent data overfitting, because the absence of energy regularization exposes ensemble construction to the noise from high-energy structures and causes a more ambiguous representation of protein conformations. Finally, we perform structure-ensemble optimizations with a topology-based structure pool, to enhance the understanding on the ensemble results from different sources of pool candidates. © 2018 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Ensemble Network Architecture for Deep Reinforcement Learning

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Xi-liang Chen

2018-01-01

Full Text Available The popular deep Q learning algorithm is known to be instability because of the Q-value’s shake and overestimation action values under certain conditions. These issues tend to adversely affect their performance. In this paper, we develop the ensemble network architecture for deep reinforcement learning which is based on value function approximation. The temporal ensemble stabilizes the training process by reducing the variance of target approximation error and the ensemble of target values reduces the overestimate and makes better performance by estimating more accurate Q-value. Our results show that this architecture leads to statistically significant better value evaluation and more stable and better performance on several classical control tasks at OpenAI Gym environment.

World Music Ensemble: Kulintang

Science.gov (United States)

Beegle, Amy C.

2012-01-01

As instrumental world music ensembles such as steel pan, mariachi, gamelan and West African drums are becoming more the norm than the exception in North American school music programs, there are other world music ensembles just starting to gain popularity in particular parts of the United States. The kulintang ensemble, a drum and gong ensemble…

Modelling Laser Milling of Microcavities for the Manufacturing of DES with Ensembles

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Pedro Santos

2014-01-01

Full Text Available A set of designed experiments, involving the use of a pulsed Nd:YAG laser system milling 316L Stainless Steel, serve to study the laser-milling process of microcavities in the manufacture of drug-eluting stents (DES. Diameter, depth, and volume error are considered to be optimized as functions of the process parameters, which include laser intensity, pulse frequency, and scanning speed. Two different DES shapes are studied that combine semispheres and cylinders. Process inputs and outputs are defined by considering the process parameters that can be changed under industrial conditions and the industrial requirements of this manufacturing process. In total, 162 different conditions are tested in a process that is modeled with the following state-of-the-art data-mining regression techniques: Support Vector Regression, Ensembles, Artificial Neural Networks, Linear Regression, and Nearest Neighbor Regression. Ensemble regression emerged as the most suitable technique for studying this industrial problem. Specifically, Iterated Bagging ensembles with unpruned model trees outperformed the other methods in the tests. This method can predict the geometrical dimensions of the machined microcavities with relative errors related to the main average value in the range of 3 to 23%, which are considered very accurate predictions, in view of the characteristics of this innovative industrial task.

On-line Learning of Unlearnable True Teacher through Mobile Ensemble Teachers

Science.gov (United States)

Hirama, Takeshi; Hukushima, Koji

2008-09-01

The on-line learning of a hierarchical learning model is studied by a method based on statistical mechanics. In our model, a student of a simple perceptron learns from not a true teacher directly, but ensemble teachers who learn from a true teacher with a perceptron learning rule. Since the true teacher and ensemble teachers are expressed as nonmonotonic and simple perceptrons, respectively, the ensemble teachers go around the unlearnable true teacher with the distance between them fixed in an asymptotic steady state. The generalization performance of the student is shown to exceed that of the ensemble teachers in a transient state, as was shown in similar ensemble-teachers models. Furthermore, it is found that moving the ensemble teachers even in the steady state, in contrast to the fixed ensemble teachers, is efficient for the performance of the student.

An Efficient Local Correlation Matrix Decomposition Approach for the Localization Implementation of Ensemble-Based Assimilation Methods

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Hongqin; Tian, Xiangjun

2018-04-01

Ensemble-based data assimilation methods often use the so-called localization scheme to improve the representation of the ensemble background error covariance (Be). Extensive research has been undertaken to reduce the computational cost of these methods by using the localized ensemble samples to localize Be by means of a direct decomposition of the local correlation matrix C. However, the computational costs of the direct decomposition of the local correlation matrix C are still extremely high due to its high dimension. In this paper, we propose an efficient local correlation matrix decomposition approach based on the concept of alternating directions. This approach is intended to avoid direct decomposition of the correlation matrix. Instead, we first decompose the correlation matrix into 1-D correlation matrices in the three coordinate directions, then construct their empirical orthogonal function decomposition at low resolution. This procedure is followed by the 1-D spline interpolation process to transform the above decompositions to the high-resolution grid. Finally, an efficient correlation matrix decomposition is achieved by computing the very similar Kronecker product. We conducted a series of comparison experiments to illustrate the validity and accuracy of the proposed local correlation matrix decomposition approach. The effectiveness of the proposed correlation matrix decomposition approach and its efficient localization implementation of the nonlinear least-squares four-dimensional variational assimilation are further demonstrated by several groups of numerical experiments based on the Advanced Research Weather Research and Forecasting model.

Benchmarking Commercial Conformer Ensemble Generators.

Science.gov (United States)

Friedrich, Nils-Ole; de Bruyn Kops, Christina; Flachsenberg, Florian; Sommer, Kai; Rarey, Matthias; Kirchmair, Johannes

2017-11-27

We assess and compare the performance of eight commercial conformer ensemble generators (ConfGen, ConfGenX, cxcalc, iCon, MOE LowModeMD, MOE Stochastic, MOE Conformation Import, and OMEGA) and one leading free algorithm, the distance geometry algorithm implemented in RDKit. The comparative study is based on a new version of the Platinum Diverse Dataset, a high-quality benchmarking dataset of 2859 protein-bound ligand conformations extracted from the PDB. Differences in the performance of commercial algorithms are much smaller than those observed for free algorithms in our previous study (J. Chem. Inf. 2017, 57, 529-539). For commercial algorithms, the median minimum root-mean-square deviations measured between protein-bound ligand conformations and ensembles of a maximum of 250 conformers are between 0.46 and 0.61 Å. Commercial conformer ensemble generators are characterized by their high robustness, with at least 99% of all input molecules successfully processed and few or even no substantial geometrical errors detectable in their output conformations. The RDKit distance geometry algorithm (with minimization enabled) appears to be a good free alternative since its performance is comparable to that of the midranked commercial algorithms. Based on a statistical analysis, we elaborate on which algorithms to use and how to parametrize them for best performance in different application scenarios.

Ensembles of gustatory cortical neurons anticipate and discriminate between tastants in a single lick

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jennifer R Stapleton

2007-10-01

Full Text Available The gustatory cortex (GC processes chemosensory and somatosensory information and is involved in learning and anticipation. Previously we found that a subpopulation of GC neurons responded to tastants in a single lick (Stapleton et al., 2006. Here we extend this investigation to determine if small ensembles of GC neurons, obtained while rats received blocks of tastants on a fixed ratio schedule (FR5, can discriminate between tastants and their concentrations after a single 50 µL delivery. In the FR5 schedule subjects received tastants every fifth (reinforced lick and the intervening licks were unreinforced. The ensemble firing patterns were analyzed with a Bayesian generalized linear model whose parameters included the firing rates and temporal patterns of the spike trains. We found that when both the temporal and rate parameters were included, 12 of 13 ensembles correctly identified single tastant deliveries. We also found that the activity during the unreinforced licks contained signals regarding the identity of the upcoming tastant, which suggests that GC neurons contain anticipatory information about the next tastant delivery. To support this finding we performed experiments in which tastant delivery was randomized within each block and found that the neural activity following the unreinforced licks did not predict the upcoming tastant. Collectively, these results suggest that after a single lick ensembles of GC neurons can discriminate between tastants, that they may utilize both temporal and rate information, and when the tastant delivery is repetitive ensembles contain information about the identity of the upcoming tastant delivery.

Neural network based multiscale image restoration approach

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de Castro, Ana Paula A.; da Silva, José D. S.

2007-02-01

This paper describes a neural network based multiscale image restoration approach. Multilayer perceptrons are trained with artificial images of degraded gray level circles, in an attempt to make the neural network learn inherent space relations of the degraded pixels. The present approach simulates the degradation by a low pass Gaussian filter blurring operation and the addition of noise to the pixels at pre-established rates. The training process considers the degraded image as input and the non-degraded image as output for the supervised learning process. The neural network thus performs an inverse operation by recovering a quasi non-degraded image in terms of least squared. The main difference of the approach to existing ones relies on the fact that the space relations are taken from different scales, thus providing relational space data to the neural network. The approach is an attempt to come up with a simple method that leads to an optimum solution to the problem. Considering different window sizes around a pixel simulates the multiscale operation. In the generalization phase the neural network is exposed to indoor, outdoor, and satellite degraded images following the same steps use for the artificial circle image.

Regional interdependency of precipitation indices across Denmark in two ensembles of high-resolution RCMs

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Sunyer Pinya, Maria Antonia; Madsen, Henrik; Rosbjerg, Dan

2013-01-01

all these methods is that the climate models are independent. This study addresses the validity of this assumption for two ensembles of regional climate models (RCMs) from the Ensemble-Based Predictions of Climate Changes and their Impacts (ENSEMBLES) project based on the land cells covering Denmark....... Daily precipitation indices from an ensemble of RCMs driven by the 40-yrECMWFRe-Analysis (ERA-40) and an ensemble of the same RCMs driven by different general circulation models (GCMs) are analyzed. Two different methods are used to estimate the amount of independent information in the ensembles....... These are based on different statistical properties of a measure of climate model error. Additionally, a hierarchical cluster analysis is carried out. Regardless of the method used, the effective number of RCMs is smaller than the total number of RCMs. The estimated effective number of RCMs varies depending...

Improving the ensemble optimization method through covariance matrix adaptation (CMA-EnOpt)

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Fonseca, R.M.; Leeuwenburgh, O.; Hof, P.M.J. van den; Jansen, J.D.

2013-01-01

Ensemble Optimization (EnOpt) is a rapidly emerging method for reservoir model based production optimization. EnOpt uses an ensemble of controls to approximate the gradient of the objective function with respect to the controls. Current implementations of EnOpt use a Gaussian ensemble with a

Force estimation from ensembles of Golgi tendon organs

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Mileusnic, M. P.; Loeb, G. E.

2009-06-01

Golgi tendon organs (GTOs) located in the skeletal muscles provide the central nervous system with information about muscle tension. The ensemble firing of all GTO receptors in the muscle has been hypothesized to represent a reliable measure of the whole muscle force but the precision and accuracy of that information are largely unknown because it is impossible to record activity simultaneously from all GTOs in a muscle. In this study, we combined a new mathematical model of force sampling and transduction in individual GTOs with various models of motor unit (MU) organization and recruitment simulating various normal, pathological and neural prosthetic conditions. Our study suggests that in the intact muscle the ensemble GTO activity accurately encodes force information according to a nonlinear, monotonic relationship that has its steepest slope for low force levels and tends to saturate at the highest force levels. The relationship between the aggregate GTO activity and whole muscle tension under some pathological conditions is similar to one seen in the intact muscle during rapidly modulated, phasic excitation of the motor pool (typical for many natural movements) but quite different when the muscle is activated slowly or held at a given force level. Substantial deviations were also observed during simulated functional electrical stimulation.

Hybrid nanomembrane-based capacitors for the determination of the dielectric constant of semiconducting molecular ensembles

Science.gov (United States)

Petrini, Paula A.; Silva, Ricardo M. L.; de Oliveira, Rafael F.; Merces, Leandro; Bof Bufon, Carlos C.

2018-06-01

Considerable advances in the field of molecular electronics have been achieved over the recent years. One persistent challenge, however, is the exploitation of the electronic properties of molecules fully integrated into devices. Typically, the molecular electronic properties are investigated using sophisticated techniques incompatible with a practical device technology, such as the scanning tunneling microscopy. The incorporation of molecular materials in devices is not a trivial task as the typical dimensions of electrical contacts are much larger than the molecular ones. To tackle this issue, we report on hybrid capacitors using mechanically-compliant nanomembranes to encapsulate ultrathin molecular ensembles for the investigation of molecular dielectric properties. As the prototype material, copper (II) phthalocyanine (CuPc) has been chosen as information on its dielectric constant (k CuPc) at the molecular scale is missing. Here, hybrid nanomembrane-based capacitors containing metallic nanomembranes, insulating Al2O3 layers, and the CuPc molecular ensembles have been fabricated and evaluated. The Al2O3 is used to prevent short circuits through the capacitor plates as the molecular layer is considerably thin (electrical measurements of devices with molecular layers of different thicknesses, the CuPc dielectric constant has been reliably determined (k CuPc = 4.5 ± 0.5). These values suggest a mild contribution of the molecular orientation on the CuPc dielectric properties. The reported nanomembrane-based capacitor is a viable strategy for the dielectric characterization of ultrathin molecular ensembles integrated into a practical, real device technology.

Face recognition based on improved BP neural network

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yue Gaili

2017-01-01

Full Text Available In order to improve the recognition rate of face recognition, face recognition algorithm based on histogram equalization, PCA and BP neural network is proposed. First, the face image is preprocessed by histogram equalization. Then, the classical PCA algorithm is used to extract the features of the histogram equalization image, and extract the principal component of the image. And then train the BP neural network using the trained training samples. This improved BP neural network weight adjustment method is used to train the network because the conventional BP algorithm has the disadvantages of slow convergence, easy to fall into local minima and training process. Finally, the BP neural network with the test sample input is trained to classify and identify the face images, and the recognition rate is obtained. Through the use of ORL database face image simulation experiment, the analysis results show that the improved BP neural network face recognition method can effectively improve the recognition rate of face recognition.

A recurrent neural network based on projection operator for extended general variational inequalities.

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Liu, Qingshan; Cao, Jinde

2010-06-01

Based on the projection operator, a recurrent neural network is proposed for solving extended general variational inequalities (EGVIs). Sufficient conditions are provided to ensure the global convergence of the proposed neural network based on Lyapunov methods. Compared with the existing neural networks for variational inequalities, the proposed neural network is a modified version of the general projection neural network existing in the literature and capable of solving the EGVI problems. In addition, simulation results on numerical examples show the effectiveness and performance of the proposed neural network.

Fluorescent Binary Ensemble Based on Pyrene Derivative and Sodium Dodecyl Sulfate Assemblies as a Chemical Tongue for Discriminating Metal Ions and Brand Water.

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Lijun; Huang, Xinyan; Cao, Yuan; Xin, Yunhong; Ding, Liping

2017-12-22

Enormous effort has been put to the detection and recognition of various heavy metal ions due to their involvement in serious environmental pollution and many major diseases. The present work has developed a single fluorescent sensor ensemble that can distinguish and identify a variety of heavy metal ions. A pyrene-based fluorophore (PB) containing a metal ion receptor group was specially designed and synthesized. Anionic surfactant sodium dodecyl sulfate (SDS) assemblies can effectively adjust its fluorescence behavior. The selected binary ensemble based on PB/SDS assemblies can exhibit multiple emission bands and provide wavelength-based cross-reactive responses to a series of metal ions to realize pattern recognition ability. The combination of surfactant assembly modulation and the receptor for metal ions empowers the present sensor ensemble with strong discrimination power, which could well differentiate 13 metal ions, including Cu 2+ , Co 2+ , Ni 2+ , Cr 3+ , Hg 2+ , Fe 3+ , Zn 2+ , Cd 2+ , Al 3+ , Pb 2+ , Ca 2+ , Mg 2+ , and Ba 2+ . Moreover, this single sensing ensemble could be further applied for identifying different brands of drinking water.

3-D visualization of ensemble weather forecasts - Part 2: Forecasting warm conveyor belt situations for aircraft-based field campaigns

Science.gov (United States)

Rautenhaus, M.; Grams, C. M.; Schäfler, A.; Westermann, R.

2015-02-01

We present the application of interactive 3-D visualization of ensemble weather predictions to forecasting warm conveyor belt situations during aircraft-based atmospheric research campaigns. Motivated by forecast requirements of the T-NAWDEX-Falcon 2012 campaign, a method to predict 3-D probabilities of the spatial occurrence of warm conveyor belts has been developed. Probabilities are derived from Lagrangian particle trajectories computed on the forecast wind fields of the ECMWF ensemble prediction system. Integration of the method into the 3-D ensemble visualization tool Met.3D, introduced in the first part of this study, facilitates interactive visualization of WCB features and derived probabilities in the context of the ECMWF ensemble forecast. We investigate the sensitivity of the method with respect to trajectory seeding and forecast wind field resolution. Furthermore, we propose a visual analysis method to quantitatively analyse the contribution of ensemble members to a probability region and, thus, to assist the forecaster in interpreting the obtained probabilities. A case study, revisiting a forecast case from T-NAWDEX-Falcon, illustrates the practical application of Met.3D and demonstrates the use of 3-D and uncertainty visualization for weather forecasting and for planning flight routes in the medium forecast range (three to seven days before take-off).

On the proper use of Ensembles for Predictive Uncertainty assessment

Science.gov (United States)

Todini, Ezio; Coccia, Gabriele; Ortiz, Enrique

2015-04-01

Probabilistic forecasting has become popular in the last decades. Hydrological probabilistic forecasts have been based either on uncertainty processors (Krzysztofowic, 1999; Todini, 2004; Todini, 2008) or on ensembles, following meteorological traditional approaches and the establishment of the HEPEX program (http://hepex.irstea.fr. Unfortunately, the direct use of ensembles as a measure of the predictive density is an incorrect practice, because the ensemble measures the spread of the forecast instead of, following the definition of predictive uncertainty, the conditional probability of the future outcome conditional on the forecast. Only few correct approaches are reported in the literature, which correctly use the ensemble to estimate an expected conditional predictive density (Reggiani et al., 2009), similarly to what is done when several predictive models are available as in the BMA (Raftery et al., 2005) or MCP(Todini, 2008; Coccia and Todini, 2011) approaches. A major problem, limiting the correct use of ensembles, is in fact the difficulty of defining the time dependence of the ensemble members, due to the lack of a consistent ranking: in other words, when dealing with multiple models, the ith model remains the ith model regardless to the time of forecast, while this does not happen when dealing with ensemble members, since there is no definition for the ith member of an ensemble. Nonetheless, the MCP approach (Todini, 2008; Coccia and Todini, 2011), essentially based on a multiple regression in the Normal space, can be easily extended to use ensembles to represent the local (in time) smaller or larger conditional predictive uncertainty, as a function of the ensemble spread. This is done by modifying the classical linear regression equations, impliying perfectly observed predictors, to alternative regression equations similar to the Kalman filter ones, allowing for uncertain predictors. In this way, each prediction in time accounts for both the predictive

A two-stage method of quantitative flood risk analysis for reservoir real-time operation using ensemble-based hydrologic forecasts

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, P.

2013-12-01

Quantitative analysis of the risk for reservoir real-time operation is a hard task owing to the difficulty of accurate description of inflow uncertainties. The ensemble-based hydrologic forecasts directly depict the inflows not only the marginal distributions but also their persistence via scenarios. This motivates us to analyze the reservoir real-time operating risk with ensemble-based hydrologic forecasts as inputs. A method is developed by using the forecast horizon point to divide the future time into two stages, the forecast lead-time and the unpredicted time. The risk within the forecast lead-time is computed based on counting the failure number of forecast scenarios, and the risk in the unpredicted time is estimated using reservoir routing with the design floods and the reservoir water levels of forecast horizon point. As a result, a two-stage risk analysis method is set up to quantify the entire flood risks by defining the ratio of the number of scenarios that excessive the critical value to the total number of scenarios. The China's Three Gorges Reservoir (TGR) is selected as a case study, where the parameter and precipitation uncertainties are implemented to produce ensemble-based hydrologic forecasts. The Bayesian inference, Markov Chain Monte Carlo, is used to account for the parameter uncertainty. Two reservoir operation schemes, the real operated and scenario optimization, are evaluated for the flood risks and hydropower profits analysis. With the 2010 flood, it is found that the improvement of the hydrologic forecast accuracy is unnecessary to decrease the reservoir real-time operation risk, and most risks are from the forecast lead-time. It is therefore valuable to decrease the avarice of ensemble-based hydrologic forecasts with less bias for a reservoir operational purpose.

Microfluidic systems for stem cell-based neural tissue engineering.

Science.gov (United States)

Karimi, Mahdi; Bahrami, Sajad; Mirshekari, Hamed; Basri, Seyed Masoud Moosavi; Nik, Amirala Bakhshian; Aref, Amir R; Akbari, Mohsen; Hamblin, Michael R

2016-07-05

Neural tissue engineering aims at developing novel approaches for the treatment of diseases of the nervous system, by providing a permissive environment for the growth and differentiation of neural cells. Three-dimensional (3D) cell culture systems provide a closer biomimetic environment, and promote better cell differentiation and improved cell function, than could be achieved by conventional two-dimensional (2D) culture systems. With the recent advances in the discovery and introduction of different types of stem cells for tissue engineering, microfluidic platforms have provided an improved microenvironment for the 3D-culture of stem cells. Microfluidic systems can provide more precise control over the spatiotemporal distribution of chemical and physical cues at the cellular level compared to traditional systems. Various microsystems have been designed and fabricated for the purpose of neural tissue engineering. Enhanced neural migration and differentiation, and monitoring of these processes, as well as understanding the behavior of stem cells and their microenvironment have been obtained through application of different microfluidic-based stem cell culture and tissue engineering techniques. As the technology advances it may be possible to construct a "brain-on-a-chip". In this review, we describe the basics of stem cells and tissue engineering as well as microfluidics-based tissue engineering approaches. We review recent testing of various microfluidic approaches for stem cell-based neural tissue engineering.

Neural bases of congenital amusia in tonal language speakers.

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Caicai; Peng, Gang; Shao, Jing; Wang, William S-Y

2017-03-01

Congenital amusia is a lifelong neurodevelopmental disorder of fine-grained pitch processing. In this fMRI study, we examined the neural bases of congenial amusia in speakers of a tonal language - Cantonese. Previous studies on non-tonal language speakers suggest that the neural deficits of congenital amusia lie in the music-selective neural circuitry in the right inferior frontal gyrus (IFG). However, it is unclear whether this finding can generalize to congenital amusics in tonal languages. Tonal language experience has been reported to shape the neural processing of pitch, which raises the question of how tonal language experience affects the neural bases of congenital amusia. To investigate this question, we examined the neural circuitries sub-serving the processing of relative pitch interval in pitch-matched Cantonese level tone and musical stimuli in 11 Cantonese-speaking amusics and 11 musically intact controls. Cantonese-speaking amusics exhibited abnormal brain activities in a widely distributed neural network during the processing of lexical tone and musical stimuli. Whereas the controls exhibited significant activation in the right superior temporal gyrus (STG) in the lexical tone condition and in the cerebellum regardless of the lexical tone and music conditions, no activation was found in the amusics in those regions, which likely reflects a dysfunctional neural mechanism of relative pitch processing in the amusics. Furthermore, the amusics showed abnormally strong activation of the right middle frontal gyrus and precuneus when the pitch stimuli were repeated, which presumably reflect deficits of attending to repeated pitch stimuli or encoding them into working memory. No significant group difference was found in the right IFG in either the whole-brain analysis or region-of-interest analysis. These findings imply that the neural deficits in tonal language speakers might differ from those in non-tonal language speakers, and overlap partly with the

Evaluation of LDA Ensembles Classifiers for Brain Computer Interface

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Arjona, Cristian; Pentácolo, José; Gareis, Iván; Atum, Yanina; Gentiletti, Gerardo; Acevedo, Rubén; Rufiner, Leonardo

2011-01-01

The Brain Computer Interface (BCI) translates brain activity into computer commands. To increase the performance of the BCI, to decode the user intentions it is necessary to get better the feature extraction and classification techniques. In this article the performance of a three linear discriminant analysis (LDA) classifiers ensemble is studied. The system based on ensemble can theoretically achieved better classification results than the individual counterpart, regarding individual classifier generation algorithm and the procedures for combine their outputs. Classic algorithms based on ensembles such as bagging and boosting are discussed here. For the application on BCI, it was concluded that the generated results using ER and AUC as performance index do not give enough information to establish which configuration is better.

Device and Method for Gathering Ensemble Data Sets

Science.gov (United States)

Racette, Paul E. (Inventor)

2014-01-01

An ensemble detector uses calibrated noise references to produce ensemble sets of data from which properties of non-stationary processes may be extracted. The ensemble detector comprising: a receiver; a switching device coupled to the receiver, the switching device configured to selectively connect each of a plurality of reference noise signals to the receiver; and a gain modulation circuit coupled to the receiver and configured to vary a gain of the receiver based on a forcing signal; whereby the switching device selectively connects each of the plurality of reference noise signals to the receiver to produce an output signal derived from the plurality of reference noise signals and the forcing signal.

Implementation of neural network based non-linear predictive

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Sørensen, Paul Haase; Nørgård, Peter Magnus; Ravn, Ole

1998-01-01

The paper describes a control method for non-linear systems based on generalized predictive control. Generalized predictive control (GPC) was developed to control linear systems including open loop unstable and non-minimum phase systems, but has also been proposed extended for the control of non......-linear systems. GPC is model-based and in this paper we propose the use of a neural network for the modeling of the system. Based on the neural network model a controller with extended control horizon is developed and the implementation issues are discussed, with particular emphasis on an efficient Quasi......-Newton optimization algorithm. The performance is demonstrated on a pneumatic servo system....

A study on reducing update frequency of the forecast samples in the ensemble-based 4DVar data assimilation method

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Shao, Aimei; Xu, Daosheng [Lanzhou Univ. (China). Key Lab. of Arid Climatic Changing and Reducing Disaster of Gansu Province; Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing (China). State Key Lab. of Severe Weather; Qiu, Xiaobin [Lanzhou Univ. (China). Key Lab. of Arid Climatic Changing and Reducing Disaster of Gansu Province; Tianjin Institute of Meteorological Science (China); Qiu, Chongjian [Lanzhou Univ. (China). Key Lab. of Arid Climatic Changing and Reducing Disaster of Gansu Province

2013-02-15

In the ensemble-based four dimensional variational assimilation method (SVD-En4DVar), a singular value decomposition (SVD) technique is used to select the leading eigenvectors and the analysis variables are expressed as the orthogonal bases expansion of the eigenvectors. The experiments with a two-dimensional shallow-water equation model and simulated observations show that the truncation error and rejection of observed signals due to the reduced-dimensional reconstruction of the analysis variable are the major factors that damage the analysis when the ensemble size is not large enough. However, a larger-sized ensemble is daunting computational burden. Experiments with a shallow-water equation model also show that the forecast error covariances remain relatively constant over time. For that reason, we propose an approach that increases the members of the forecast ensemble while reducing the update frequency of the forecast error covariance in order to increase analysis accuracy and to reduce the computational cost. A series of experiments were conducted with the shallow-water equation model to test the efficiency of this approach. The experimental results indicate that this approach is promising. Further experiments with the WRF model show that this approach is also suitable for the real atmospheric data assimilation problem, but the update frequency of the forecast error covariances should not be too low. (orig.)

Development of a regional ensemble prediction method for probabilistic weather prediction

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nohara, Daisuke; Tamura, Hidetoshi; Hirakuchi, Hiromaru

2015-01-01

A regional ensemble prediction method has been developed to provide probabilistic weather prediction using a numerical weather prediction model. To obtain consistent perturbations with the synoptic weather pattern, both of initial and lateral boundary perturbations were given by differences between control and ensemble member of the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA)'s operational one-week ensemble forecast. The method provides a multiple ensemble member with a horizontal resolution of 15 km for 48-hour based on a downscaling of the JMA's operational global forecast accompanied with the perturbations. The ensemble prediction was examined in the case of heavy snow fall event in Kanto area on January 14, 2013. The results showed that the predictions represent different features of high-resolution spatiotemporal distribution of precipitation affected by intensity and location of extra-tropical cyclone in each ensemble member. Although the ensemble prediction has model bias of mean values and variances in some variables such as wind speed and solar radiation, the ensemble prediction has a potential to append a probabilistic information to a deterministic prediction. (author)

Multi-model ensembles for assessment of flood losses and associated uncertainty

Science.gov (United States)

Figueiredo, Rui; Schröter, Kai; Weiss-Motz, Alexander; Martina, Mario L. V.; Kreibich, Heidi

2018-05-01

Flood loss modelling is a crucial part of risk assessments. However, it is subject to large uncertainty that is often neglected. Most models available in the literature are deterministic, providing only single point estimates of flood loss, and large disparities tend to exist among them. Adopting any one such model in a risk assessment context is likely to lead to inaccurate loss estimates and sub-optimal decision-making. In this paper, we propose the use of multi-model ensembles to address these issues. This approach, which has been applied successfully in other scientific fields, is based on the combination of different model outputs with the aim of improving the skill and usefulness of predictions. We first propose a model rating framework to support ensemble construction, based on a probability tree of model properties, which establishes relative degrees of belief between candidate models. Using 20 flood loss models in two test cases, we then construct numerous multi-model ensembles, based both on the rating framework and on a stochastic method, differing in terms of participating members, ensemble size and model weights. We evaluate the performance of ensemble means, as well as their probabilistic skill and reliability. Our results demonstrate that well-designed multi-model ensembles represent a pragmatic approach to consistently obtain more accurate flood loss estimates and reliable probability distributions of model uncertainty.

Localization of atomic ensembles via superfluorescence

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Macovei, Mihai; Evers, Joerg; Keitel, Christoph H.; Zubairy, M. Suhail

2007-01-01

The subwavelength localization of an ensemble of atoms concentrated to a small volume in space is investigated. The localization relies on the interaction of the ensemble with a standing wave laser field. The light scattered in the interaction of the standing wave field and the atom ensemble depends on the position of the ensemble relative to the standing wave nodes. This relation can be described by a fluorescence intensity profile, which depends on the standing wave field parameters and the ensemble properties and which is modified due to collective effects in the ensemble of nearby particles. We demonstrate that the intensity profile can be tailored to suit different localization setups. Finally, we apply these results to two localization schemes. First, we show how to localize an ensemble fixed at a certain position in the standing wave field. Second, we discuss localization of an ensemble passing through the standing wave field

Estimation of Muscle Force Based on Neural Drive in a Hemispheric Stroke Survivor.

Science.gov (United States)

Dai, Chenyun; Zheng, Yang; Hu, Xiaogang

2018-01-01

Robotic assistant-based therapy holds great promise to improve the functional recovery of stroke survivors. Numerous neural-machine interface techniques have been used to decode the intended movement to control robotic systems for rehabilitation therapies. In this case report, we tested the feasibility of estimating finger extensor muscle forces of a stroke survivor, based on the decoded descending neural drive through population motoneuron discharge timings. Motoneuron discharge events were obtained by decomposing high-density surface electromyogram (sEMG) signals of the finger extensor muscle. The neural drive was extracted from the normalized frequency of the composite discharge of the motoneuron pool. The neural-drive-based estimation was also compared with the classic myoelectric-based estimation. Our results showed that the neural-drive-based approach can better predict the force output, quantified by lower estimation errors and higher correlations with the muscle force, compared with the myoelectric-based estimation. Our findings suggest that the neural-drive-based approach can potentially be used as a more robust interface signal for robotic therapies during the stroke rehabilitation.

Assessing an ensemble Kalman filter inference of Manning's n coefficient of an idealized tidal inlet against a polynomial chaos-based MCMC

Science.gov (United States)

Siripatana, Adil; Mayo, Talea; Sraj, Ihab; Knio, Omar; Dawson, Clint; Le Maitre, Olivier; Hoteit, Ibrahim

2017-08-01

Bayesian estimation/inversion is commonly used to quantify and reduce modeling uncertainties in coastal ocean model, especially in the framework of parameter estimation. Based on Bayes rule, the posterior probability distribution function (pdf) of the estimated quantities is obtained conditioned on available data. It can be computed either directly, using a Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) approach, or by sequentially processing the data following a data assimilation approach, which is heavily exploited in large dimensional state estimation problems. The advantage of data assimilation schemes over MCMC-type methods arises from the ability to algorithmically accommodate a large number of uncertain quantities without significant increase in the computational requirements. However, only approximate estimates are generally obtained by this approach due to the restricted Gaussian prior and noise assumptions that are generally imposed in these methods. This contribution aims at evaluating the effectiveness of utilizing an ensemble Kalman-based data assimilation method for parameter estimation of a coastal ocean model against an MCMC polynomial chaos (PC)-based scheme. We focus on quantifying the uncertainties of a coastal ocean ADvanced CIRCulation (ADCIRC) model with respect to the Manning's n coefficients. Based on a realistic framework of observation system simulation experiments (OSSEs), we apply an ensemble Kalman filter and the MCMC method employing a surrogate of ADCIRC constructed by a non-intrusive PC expansion for evaluating the likelihood, and test both approaches under identical scenarios. We study the sensitivity of the estimated posteriors with respect to the parameters of the inference methods, including ensemble size, inflation factor, and PC order. A full analysis of both methods, in the context of coastal ocean model, suggests that an ensemble Kalman filter with appropriate ensemble size and well-tuned inflation provides reliable mean estimates and

Multi-objective optimization for generating a weighted multi-model ensemble

Science.gov (United States)

Lee, H.

2017-12-01

Many studies have demonstrated that multi-model ensembles generally show better skill than each ensemble member. When generating weighted multi-model ensembles, the first step is measuring the performance of individual model simulations using observations. There is a consensus on the assignment of weighting factors based on a single evaluation metric. When considering only one evaluation metric, the weighting factor for each model is proportional to a performance score or inversely proportional to an error for the model. While this conventional approach can provide appropriate combinations of multiple models, the approach confronts a big challenge when there are multiple metrics under consideration. When considering multiple evaluation metrics, it is obvious that a simple averaging of multiple performance scores or model ranks does not address the trade-off problem between conflicting metrics. So far, there seems to be no best method to generate weighted multi-model ensembles based on multiple performance metrics. The current study applies the multi-objective optimization, a mathematical process that provides a set of optimal trade-off solutions based on a range of evaluation metrics, to combining multiple performance metrics for the global climate models and their dynamically downscaled regional climate simulations over North America and generating a weighted multi-model ensemble. NASA satellite data and the Regional Climate Model Evaluation System (RCMES) software toolkit are used for assessment of the climate simulations. Overall, the performance of each model differs markedly with strong seasonal dependence. Because of the considerable variability across the climate simulations, it is important to evaluate models systematically and make future projections by assigning optimized weighting factors to the models with relatively good performance. Our results indicate that the optimally weighted multi-model ensemble always shows better performance than an arithmetic

Extending Correlation Filter-Based Visual Tracking by Tree-Structured Ensemble and Spatial Windowing.

Science.gov (United States)

Gundogdu, Erhan; Ozkan, Huseyin; Alatan, A Aydin

2017-11-01

Correlation filters have been successfully used in visual tracking due to their modeling power and computational efficiency. However, the state-of-the-art correlation filter-based (CFB) tracking algorithms tend to quickly discard the previous poses of the target, since they consider only a single filter in their models. On the contrary, our approach is to register multiple CFB trackers for previous poses and exploit the registered knowledge when an appearance change occurs. To this end, we propose a novel tracking algorithm [of complexity O(D) ] based on a large ensemble of CFB trackers. The ensemble [of size O(2 D ) ] is organized over a binary tree (depth D ), and learns the target appearance subspaces such that each constituent tracker becomes an expert of a certain appearance. During tracking, the proposed algorithm combines only the appearance-aware relevant experts to produce boosted tracking decisions. Additionally, we propose a versatile spatial windowing technique to enhance the individual expert trackers. For this purpose, spatial windows are learned for target objects as well as the correlation filters and then the windowed regions are processed for more robust correlations. In our extensive experiments on benchmark datasets, we achieve a substantial performance increase by using the proposed tracking algorithm together with the spatial windowing.

EnsembleGASVR: A novel ensemble method for classifying missense single nucleotide polymorphisms

KAUST Repository

Rapakoulia, Trisevgeni; Theofilatos, Konstantinos A.; Kleftogiannis, Dimitrios A.; Likothanasis, Spiridon D.; Tsakalidis, Athanasios K.; Mavroudi, Seferina P.

2014-01-01

do not support their predictions with confidence scores. Results: To overcome these limitations, a novel ensemble computational methodology is proposed. EnsembleGASVR facilitates a twostep algorithm, which in its first step applies a novel

Mass Conservation and Positivity Preservation with Ensemble-type Kalman Filter Algorithms

Science.gov (United States)

Janjic, Tijana; McLaughlin, Dennis B.; Cohn, Stephen E.; Verlaan, Martin

2013-01-01

Maintaining conservative physical laws numerically has long been recognized as being important in the development of numerical weather prediction (NWP) models. In the broader context of data assimilation, concerted efforts to maintain conservation laws numerically and to understand the significance of doing so have begun only recently. In order to enforce physically based conservation laws of total mass and positivity in the ensemble Kalman filter, we incorporate constraints to ensure that the filter ensemble members and the ensemble mean conserve mass and remain nonnegative through measurement updates. We show that the analysis steps of ensemble transform Kalman filter (ETKF) algorithm and ensemble Kalman filter algorithm (EnKF) can conserve the mass integral, but do not preserve positivity. Further, if localization is applied or if negative values are simply set to zero, then the total mass is not conserved either. In order to ensure mass conservation, a projection matrix that corrects for localization effects is constructed. In order to maintain both mass conservation and positivity preservation through the analysis step, we construct a data assimilation algorithms based on quadratic programming and ensemble Kalman filtering. Mass and positivity are both preserved by formulating the filter update as a set of quadratic programming problems that incorporate constraints. Some simple numerical experiments indicate that this approach can have a significant positive impact on the posterior ensemble distribution, giving results that are more physically plausible both for individual ensemble members and for the ensemble mean. The results show clear improvements in both analyses and forecasts, particularly in the presence of localized features. Behavior of the algorithm is also tested in presence of model error.

Loss of Ensemble Segregation in Dentate Gyrus, but Not in Somatosensory Cortex, during Contextual Fear Memory Generalization

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Marie Yokoyama

2016-11-01

Full Text Available The details of contextual or episodic memories are lost and generalized with the passage of time. Proper generalization may underlie the formation and assimilation of semantic memories and enable animals to adapt to ever-changing environments, whereas overgeneralization of fear memory evokes maladaptive fear responses to harmless stimuli, which is a symptom of anxiety disorders such as post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD. To understand the neural basis of fear memory generalization, we investigated the patterns of neuronal ensemble reactivation during memory retrieval when contextual fear memory expression is generalized using transgenic mice that allowed us to visualize specific neuronal ensembles activated during memory encoding and retrieval. We found preferential reactivations of neuronal ensembles in the primary somatosensory cortex, when mice were returned to the conditioned context to retrieve their memory 1 day after conditioning. In the hippocampal dentate gyrus (DG, exclusively separated ensemble reactivation was observed when mice were exposed to a novel context. These results suggest that the DG as well as the somatosensory cortex were likely to distinguish the two different contexts at the ensemble activity level when memory is not generalized at the behavioral level. However, 9 days after conditioning when animals exhibited generalized fear, the unique reactivation pattern in the DG, but not in the somatosensory cortex, was lost. Our results suggest that the alternations in the ensemble representation within the DG, or in upstream structures that link the sensory cortex to the hippocampus, may underlie generalized contextual fear memory expression.

Hybrid neural intelligent system to predict business failure in small-to-medium-size enterprises.

Science.gov (United States)

Borrajo, M Lourdes; Baruque, Bruno; Corchado, Emilio; Bajo, Javier; Corchado, Juan M

2011-08-01

During the last years there has been a growing need of developing innovative tools that can help small to medium sized enterprises to predict business failure as well as financial crisis. In this study we present a novel hybrid intelligent system aimed at monitoring the modus operandi of the companies and predicting possible failures. This system is implemented by means of a neural-based multi-agent system that models the different actors of the companies as agents. The core of the multi-agent system is a type of agent that incorporates a case-based reasoning system and automates the business control process and failure prediction. The stages of the case-based reasoning system are implemented by means of web services: the retrieval stage uses an innovative weighted voting summarization of self-organizing maps ensembles-based method and the reuse stage is implemented by means of a radial basis function neural network. An initial prototype was developed and the results obtained related to small and medium enterprises in a real scenario are presented.

Larger bases and mixed analog/digital neural nets

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Beiu, V.

1998-12-31

The paper overviews results dealing with the approximation capabilities of neural networks, and bounds on the size of threshold gate circuits. Based on an explicit numerical algorithm for Kolmogorov`s superpositions the authors show that minimum size neural networks--for implementing any Boolean function--have the identity function as the activation function. Conclusions and several comments on the required precision are ending the paper.

Skill of Global Raw and Postprocessed Ensemble Predictions of Rainfall over Northern Tropical Africa

Science.gov (United States)

Vogel, Peter; Knippertz, Peter; Fink, Andreas H.; Schlueter, Andreas; Gneiting, Tilmann

2018-04-01

Accumulated precipitation forecasts are of high socioeconomic importance for agriculturally dominated societies in northern tropical Africa. In this study, we analyze the performance of nine operational global ensemble prediction systems (EPSs) relative to climatology-based forecasts for 1 to 5-day accumulated precipitation based on the monsoon seasons 2007-2014 for three regions within northern tropical Africa. To assess the full potential of raw ensemble forecasts across spatial scales, we apply state-of-the-art statistical postprocessing methods in form of Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) and Ensemble Model Output Statistics (EMOS), and verify against station and spatially aggregated, satellite-based gridded observations. Raw ensemble forecasts are uncalibrated, unreliable, and underperform relative to climatology, independently of region, accumulation time, monsoon season, and ensemble. Differences between raw ensemble and climatological forecasts are large, and partly stem from poor prediction for low precipitation amounts. BMA and EMOS postprocessed forecasts are calibrated, reliable, and strongly improve on the raw ensembles, but - somewhat disappointingly - typically do not outperform climatology. Most EPSs exhibit slight improvements over the period 2007-2014, but overall have little added value compared to climatology. We suspect that the parametrization of convection is a potential cause for the sobering lack of ensemble forecast skill in a region dominated by mesoscale convective systems.

Hybrid nanomembrane-based capacitors for the determination of the dielectric constant of semiconducting molecular ensembles.

Science.gov (United States)

Petrini, Paula Andreia; Lopes da Silva, Ricardo Magno; de Oliveira, Rafael Furlan; Merces, Leandro; Bufon, Carlos César Bof

2018-04-06

Considerable advances in the field of molecular electronics have been achieved over the recent years. One persistent challenge, however, is the exploitation of the electronic properties of molecules fully integrated into devices. Typically, the molecular electronic properties are investigated using sophisticated techniques incompatible with a practical device technology, such as the scanning tunneling microscope (STM). The incorporation of molecular materials in devices is not a trivial task since the typical dimensions of electrical contacts are much larger than the molecular ones. To tackle this issue, we report on hybrid capacitors using mechanically-compliant nanomembranes to encapsulate ultrathin molecular ensembles for the investigation of molecular dielectric properties. As the prototype material, copper (II) phthalocyanine (CuPc) has been chosen as information on its dielectric constant (kCuPc) at the molecular scale is missing. Here, hybrid nanomembrane-based capacitors containing metallic nanomembranes, insulating Al2O3 layers, and the CuPc molecular ensemble have been fabricated and evaluated. The Al2O3 is used to prevent short circuits through the capacitor plates as the molecular layer is considerably thin (< 30 nm). From the electrical measurements of devices with molecular layers of different thicknesses, the CuPc dielectric constant has been reliably determined (kCuPc = 4.5 ± 0.5). These values suggest a mild contribution of molecular orientation in the CuPc dielectric properties. The reported nanomembrane-based capacitor is a viable strategy for the dielectric characterization of ultrathin molecular ensembles integrated into a practical, real device technology. © 2018 IOP Publishing Ltd.

Three-dimensional visualization of ensemble weather forecasts - Part 2: Forecasting warm conveyor belt situations for aircraft-based field campaigns

Science.gov (United States)

Rautenhaus, M.; Grams, C. M.; Schäfler, A.; Westermann, R.

2015-07-01

We present the application of interactive three-dimensional (3-D) visualization of ensemble weather predictions to forecasting warm conveyor belt situations during aircraft-based atmospheric research campaigns. Motivated by forecast requirements of the T-NAWDEX-Falcon 2012 (THORPEX - North Atlantic Waveguide and Downstream Impact Experiment) campaign, a method to predict 3-D probabilities of the spatial occurrence of warm conveyor belts (WCBs) has been developed. Probabilities are derived from Lagrangian particle trajectories computed on the forecast wind fields of the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) ensemble prediction system. Integration of the method into the 3-D ensemble visualization tool Met.3D, introduced in the first part of this study, facilitates interactive visualization of WCB features and derived probabilities in the context of the ECMWF ensemble forecast. We investigate the sensitivity of the method with respect to trajectory seeding and grid spacing of the forecast wind field. Furthermore, we propose a visual analysis method to quantitatively analyse the contribution of ensemble members to a probability region and, thus, to assist the forecaster in interpreting the obtained probabilities. A case study, revisiting a forecast case from T-NAWDEX-Falcon, illustrates the practical application of Met.3D and demonstrates the use of 3-D and uncertainty visualization for weather forecasting and for planning flight routes in the medium forecast range (3 to 7 days before take-off).

Operational hydrological forecasting in Bavaria. Part II: Ensemble forecasting

Science.gov (United States)

Ehret, U.; Vogelbacher, A.; Moritz, K.; Laurent, S.; Meyer, I.; Haag, I.

2009-04-01

In part I of this study, the operational flood forecasting system in Bavaria and an approach to identify and quantify forecast uncertainty was introduced. The approach is split into the calculation of an empirical 'overall error' from archived forecasts and the calculation of an empirical 'model error' based on hydrometeorological forecast tests, where rainfall observations were used instead of forecasts. The 'model error' can especially in upstream catchments where forecast uncertainty is strongly dependent on the current predictability of the atrmosphere be superimposed on the spread of a hydrometeorological ensemble forecast. In Bavaria, two meteorological ensemble prediction systems are currently tested for operational use: the 16-member COSMO-LEPS forecast and a poor man's ensemble composed of DWD GME, DWD Cosmo-EU, NCEP GFS, Aladin-Austria, MeteoSwiss Cosmo-7. The determination of the overall forecast uncertainty is dependent on the catchment characteristics: 1. Upstream catchment with high influence of weather forecast a) A hydrological ensemble forecast is calculated using each of the meteorological forecast members as forcing. b) Corresponding to the characteristics of the meteorological ensemble forecast, each resulting forecast hydrograph can be regarded as equally likely. c) The 'model error' distribution, with parameters dependent on hydrological case and lead time, is added to each forecast timestep of each ensemble member d) For each forecast timestep, the overall (i.e. over all 'model error' distribution of each ensemble member) error distribution is calculated e) From this distribution, the uncertainty range on a desired level (here: the 10% and 90% percentile) is extracted and drawn as forecast envelope. f) As the mean or median of an ensemble forecast does not necessarily exhibit meteorologically sound temporal evolution, a single hydrological forecast termed 'lead forecast' is chosen and shown in addition to the uncertainty bounds. This can be

Multivariate localization methods for ensemble Kalman filtering

KAUST Repository

Roh, S.

2015-12-03

In ensemble Kalman filtering (EnKF), the small number of ensemble members that is feasible to use in a practical data assimilation application leads to sampling variability of the estimates of the background error covariances. The standard approach to reducing the effects of this sampling variability, which has also been found to be highly efficient in improving the performance of EnKF, is the localization of the estimates of the covariances. One family of localization techniques is based on taking the Schur (element-wise) product of the ensemble-based sample covariance matrix and a correlation matrix whose entries are obtained by the discretization of a distance-dependent correlation function. While the proper definition of the localization function for a single state variable has been extensively investigated, a rigorous definition of the localization function for multiple state variables that exist at the same locations has been seldom considered. This paper introduces two strategies for the construction of localization functions for multiple state variables. The proposed localization functions are tested by assimilating simulated observations experiments into the bivariate Lorenz 95 model with their help.

Microcanonical ensemble extensive thermodynamics of Tsallis statistics

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Parvan, A.S.

2005-01-01

The microscopic foundation of the generalized equilibrium statistical mechanics based on the Tsallis entropy is given by using the Gibbs idea of statistical ensembles of the classical and quantum mechanics.The equilibrium distribution functions are derived by the thermodynamic method based upon the use of the fundamental equation of thermodynamics and the statistical definition of the functions of the state of the system. It is shown that if the entropic index ξ = 1/q - 1 in the microcanonical ensemble is an extensive variable of the state of the system, then in the thermodynamic limit z bar = 1/(q - 1)N = const the principle of additivity and the zero law of thermodynamics are satisfied. In particular, the Tsallis entropy of the system is extensive and the temperature is intensive. Thus, the Tsallis statistics completely satisfies all the postulates of the equilibrium thermodynamics. Moreover, evaluation of the thermodynamic identities in the microcanonical ensemble is provided by the Euler theorem. The principle of additivity and the Euler theorem are explicitly proved by using the illustration of the classical microcanonical ideal gas in the thermodynamic limit

Multivariate localization methods for ensemble Kalman filtering

KAUST Repository

Roh, S.

2015-05-08

In ensemble Kalman filtering (EnKF), the small number of ensemble members that is feasible to use in a practical data assimilation application leads to sampling variability of the estimates of the background error covariances. The standard approach to reducing the effects of this sampling variability, which has also been found to be highly efficient in improving the performance of EnKF, is the localization of the estimates of the covariances. One family of localization techniques is based on taking the Schur (entry-wise) product of the ensemble-based sample covariance matrix and a correlation matrix whose entries are obtained by the discretization of a distance-dependent correlation function. While the proper definition of the localization function for a single state variable has been extensively investigated, a rigorous definition of the localization function for multiple state variables has been seldom considered. This paper introduces two strategies for the construction of localization functions for multiple state variables. The proposed localization functions are tested by assimilating simulated observations experiments into the bivariate Lorenz 95 model with their help.

Multivariate localization methods for ensemble Kalman filtering

KAUST Repository

Roh, S.; Jun, M.; Szunyogh, I.; Genton, Marc G.

2015-01-01

In ensemble Kalman filtering (EnKF), the small number of ensemble members that is feasible to use in a practical data assimilation application leads to sampling variability of the estimates of the background error covariances. The standard approach to reducing the effects of this sampling variability, which has also been found to be highly efficient in improving the performance of EnKF, is the localization of the estimates of the covariances. One family of localization techniques is based on taking the Schur (entry-wise) product of the ensemble-based sample covariance matrix and a correlation matrix whose entries are obtained by the discretization of a distance-dependent correlation function. While the proper definition of the localization function for a single state variable has been extensively investigated, a rigorous definition of the localization function for multiple state variables has been seldom considered. This paper introduces two strategies for the construction of localization functions for multiple state variables. The proposed localization functions are tested by assimilating simulated observations experiments into the bivariate Lorenz 95 model with their help.

Multivariate localization methods for ensemble Kalman filtering

Science.gov (United States)

Roh, S.; Jun, M.; Szunyogh, I.; Genton, M. G.

2015-12-01

In ensemble Kalman filtering (EnKF), the small number of ensemble members that is feasible to use in a practical data assimilation application leads to sampling variability of the estimates of the background error covariances. The standard approach to reducing the effects of this sampling variability, which has also been found to be highly efficient in improving the performance of EnKF, is the localization of the estimates of the covariances. One family of localization techniques is based on taking the Schur (element-wise) product of the ensemble-based sample covariance matrix and a correlation matrix whose entries are obtained by the discretization of a distance-dependent correlation function. While the proper definition of the localization function for a single state variable has been extensively investigated, a rigorous definition of the localization function for multiple state variables that exist at the same locations has been seldom considered. This paper introduces two strategies for the construction of localization functions for multiple state variables. The proposed localization functions are tested by assimilating simulated observations experiments into the bivariate Lorenz 95 model with their help.

Microcanonical ensemble extensive thermodynamics of Tsallis statistics

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Parvan, A.S.

2006-01-01

The microscopic foundation of the generalized equilibrium statistical mechanics based on the Tsallis entropy is given by using the Gibbs idea of statistical ensembles of the classical and quantum mechanics. The equilibrium distribution functions are derived by the thermodynamic method based upon the use of the fundamental equation of thermodynamics and the statistical definition of the functions of the state of the system. It is shown that if the entropic index ξ=1/(q-1) in the microcanonical ensemble is an extensive variable of the state of the system, then in the thermodynamic limit z-bar =1/(q-1)N=const the principle of additivity and the zero law of thermodynamics are satisfied. In particular, the Tsallis entropy of the system is extensive and the temperature is intensive. Thus, the Tsallis statistics completely satisfies all the postulates of the equilibrium thermodynamics. Moreover, evaluation of the thermodynamic identities in the microcanonical ensemble is provided by the Euler theorem. The principle of additivity and the Euler theorem are explicitly proved by using the illustration of the classical microcanonical ideal gas in the thermodynamic limit

Robust Ensemble Filtering and Its Relation to Covariance Inflation in the Ensemble Kalman Filter

KAUST Repository

Luo, Xiaodong

2011-12-01

A robust ensemble filtering scheme based on the H∞ filtering theory is proposed. The optimal H∞ filter is derived by minimizing the supremum (or maximum) of a predefined cost function, a criterion different from the minimum variance used in the Kalman filter. By design, the H∞ filter is more robust than the Kalman filter, in the sense that the estimation error in the H∞ filter in general has a finite growth rate with respect to the uncertainties in assimilation, except for a special case that corresponds to the Kalman filter. The original form of the H∞ filter contains global constraints in time, which may be inconvenient for sequential data assimilation problems. Therefore a variant is introduced that solves some time-local constraints instead, and hence it is called the time-local H∞ filter (TLHF). By analogy to the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF), the concept of ensemble time-local H∞ filter (EnTLHF) is also proposed. The general form of the EnTLHF is outlined, and some of its special cases are discussed. In particular, it is shown that an EnKF with certain covariance inflation is essentially an EnTLHF. In this sense, the EnTLHF provides a general framework for conducting covariance inflation in the EnKF-based methods. Some numerical examples are used to assess the relative robustness of the TLHF–EnTLHF in comparison with the corresponding KF–EnKF method.

Stacking Ensemble Learning for Short-Term Electricity Consumption Forecasting

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Federico Divina

2018-04-01

Full Text Available The ability to predict short-term electric energy demand would provide several benefits, both at the economic and environmental level. For example, it would allow for an efficient use of resources in order to face the actual demand, reducing the costs associated to the production as well as the emission of CO 2 . To this aim, in this paper we propose a strategy based on ensemble learning in order to tackle the short-term load forecasting problem. In particular, our approach is based on a stacking ensemble learning scheme, where the predictions produced by three base learning methods are used by a top level method in order to produce final predictions. We tested the proposed scheme on a dataset reporting the energy consumption in Spain over more than nine years. The obtained experimental results show that an approach for short-term electricity consumption forecasting based on ensemble learning can help in combining predictions produced by weaker learning methods in order to obtain superior results. In particular, the system produces a lower error with respect to the existing state-of-the art techniques used on the same dataset. More importantly, this case study has shown that using an ensemble scheme can achieve very accurate predictions, and thus that it is a suitable approach for addressing the short-term load forecasting problem.

The canonical ensemble redefined - 1: Formalism

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Venkataraman, R.

1984-12-01

For studying the thermodynamic properties of systems we propose an ensemble that lies in between the familiar canonical and microcanonical ensembles. We point out the transition from the canonical to microcanonical ensemble and prove from a comparative study that all these ensembles do not yield the same results even in the thermodynamic limit. An investigation of the coupling between two or more systems with these ensembles suggests that the state of thermodynamical equilibrium is a special case of statistical equilibrium. (author)

ENSEMBLE methods to reconcile disparate national long range dispersion forecasting

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Mikkelsen, T; Galmarini, S; Bianconi, R; French, S [eds.

2003-11-01

ENSEMBLE is a web-based decision support system for real-time exchange and evaluation of national long-range dispersion forecasts of nuclear releases with cross-boundary consequences. The system is developed with the purpose to reconcile among disparate national forecasts for long-range dispersion. ENSEMBLE addresses the problem of achieving a common coherent strategy across European national emergency management when national long-range dispersion forecasts differ from one another during an accidental atmospheric release of radioactive material. A series of new decision-making 'ENSEMBLE' procedures and Web-based software evaluation and exchange tools have been created for real-time reconciliation and harmonisation of real-time dispersion forecasts from meteorological and emergency centres across Europe during an accident. The new ENSEMBLE software tools is available to participating national emergency and meteorological forecasting centres, which may choose to integrate them directly into operational emergency information systems, or possibly use them as a basis for future system development. (au)

ENSEMBLE methods to reconcile disparate national long range dispersion forecasting

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Mikkelsen, T.; Galmarini, S.; Bianconi, R.; French, S. (eds.)

2003-11-01

ENSEMBLE is a web-based decision support system for real-time exchange and evaluation of national long-range dispersion forecasts of nuclear releases with cross-boundary consequences. The system is developed with the purpose to reconcile among disparate national forecasts for long-range dispersion. ENSEMBLE addresses the problem of achieving a common coherent strategy across European national emergency management when national long-range dispersion forecasts differ from one another during an accidental atmospheric release of radioactive material. A series of new decision-making 'ENSEMBLE' procedures and Web-based software evaluation and exchange tools have been created for real-time reconciliation and harmonisation of real-time dispersion forecasts from meteorological and emergency centres across Europe during an accident. The new ENSEMBLE software tools is available to participating national emergency and meteorological forecasting centres, which may choose to integrate them directly into operational emergency information systems, or possibly use them as a basis for future system development. (au)

A multi-stage intelligent approach based on an ensemble of two-way interaction model for forecasting the global horizontal radiation of India

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jiang, He; Dong, Yao; Xiao, Ling

2017-01-01

Highlights: • Ensemble learning system is proposed to forecast the global solar radiation. • LASSO is utilized as feature selection method for subset model. • GSO is used to select the weight vector aggregating the response of subset model. • A simple and efficient algorithm is designed based on thresholding function. • Theoretical analysis focusing on error rate is provided. - Abstract: Forecasting of effective solar irradiation has developed a huge interest in recent decades, mainly due to its various applications in grid connect photovoltaic installations. This paper develops and investigates an ensemble learning based multistage intelligent approach to forecast 5 days global horizontal radiation at four given locations of India. The two-way interaction model is considered with purpose of detecting the associated correlation between the features. The main structure of the novel method is the ensemble learning, which is based on Divide and Conquer principle, is applied to enhance the forecasting accuracy and model stability. An efficient feature selection method LASSO is performed in the input space with the regularization parameter selected by Cross-Validation. A weight vector which best represents the importance of each individual model in ensemble system is provided by glowworm swarm optimization. The combination of feature selection and parameter selection are helpful in creating the diversity of the ensemble learning. In order to illustrate the validity of the proposed method, the datasets at four different locations of the India are split into training and test datasets. The results of the real data experiments demonstrate the efficiency and efficacy of the proposed method comparing with other competitors.

Encoding of Spatial Attention by Primate Prefrontal Cortex Neuronal Ensembles

Science.gov (United States)

Treue, Stefan

2018-01-01

Abstract Single neurons in the primate lateral prefrontal cortex (LPFC) encode information about the allocation of visual attention and the features of visual stimuli. However, how this compares to the performance of neuronal ensembles at encoding the same information is poorly understood. Here, we recorded the responses of neuronal ensembles in the LPFC of two macaque monkeys while they performed a task that required attending to one of two moving random dot patterns positioned in different hemifields and ignoring the other pattern. We found single units selective for the location of the attended stimulus as well as for its motion direction. To determine the coding of both variables in the population of recorded units, we used a linear classifier and progressively built neuronal ensembles by iteratively adding units according to their individual performance (best single units), or by iteratively adding units based on their contribution to the ensemble performance (best ensemble). For both methods, ensembles of relatively small sizes (n decoding performance relative to individual single units. However, the decoder reached similar performance using fewer neurons with the best ensemble building method compared with the best single units method. Our results indicate that neuronal ensembles within the LPFC encode more information about the attended spatial and nonspatial features of visual stimuli than individual neurons. They further suggest that efficient coding of attention can be achieved by relatively small neuronal ensembles characterized by a certain relationship between signal and noise correlation structures. PMID:29568798

Distributed HUC-based modeling with SUMMA for ensemble streamflow forecasting over large regional domains.

Science.gov (United States)

Saharia, M.; Wood, A.; Clark, M. P.; Bennett, A.; Nijssen, B.; Clark, E.; Newman, A. J.

2017-12-01

Most operational streamflow forecasting systems rely on a forecaster-in-the-loop approach in which some parts of the forecast workflow require an experienced human forecaster. But this approach faces challenges surrounding process reproducibility, hindcasting capability, and extension to large domains. The operational hydrologic community is increasingly moving towards `over-the-loop' (completely automated) large-domain simulations yet recent developments indicate a widespread lack of community knowledge about the strengths and weaknesses of such systems for forecasting. A realistic representation of land surface hydrologic processes is a critical element for improving forecasts, but often comes at the substantial cost of forecast system agility and efficiency. While popular grid-based models support the distributed representation of land surface processes, intermediate-scale Hydrologic Unit Code (HUC)-based modeling could provide a more efficient and process-aligned spatial discretization, reducing the need for tradeoffs between model complexity and critical forecasting requirements such as ensemble methods and comprehensive model calibration. The National Center for Atmospheric Research is collaborating with the University of Washington, the Bureau of Reclamation and the USACE to implement, assess, and demonstrate real-time, over-the-loop distributed streamflow forecasting for several large western US river basins and regions. In this presentation, we present early results from short to medium range hydrologic and streamflow forecasts for the Pacific Northwest (PNW). We employ a real-time 1/16th degree daily ensemble model forcings as well as downscaled Global Ensemble Forecasting System (GEFS) meteorological forecasts. These datasets drive an intermediate-scale configuration of the Structure for Unifying Multiple Modeling Alternatives (SUMMA) model, which represents the PNW using over 11,700 HUCs. The system produces not only streamflow forecasts (using the Mizu

Wind power prediction based on genetic neural network

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Suhan

2017-04-01

The scale of grid connected wind farms keeps increasing. To ensure the stability of power system operation, make a reasonable scheduling scheme and improve the competitiveness of wind farm in the electricity generation market, it's important to accurately forecast the short-term wind power. To reduce the influence of the nonlinear relationship between the disturbance factor and the wind power, the improved prediction model based on genetic algorithm and neural network method is established. To overcome the shortcomings of long training time of BP neural network and easy to fall into local minimum and improve the accuracy of the neural network, genetic algorithm is adopted to optimize the parameters and topology of neural network. The historical data is used as input to predict short-term wind power. The effectiveness and feasibility of the method is verified by the actual data of a certain wind farm as an example.

A Pilot Study of Biomedical Text Comprehension using an Attention-Based Deep Neural Reader: Design and Experimental Analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Kim, Seongsoon; Park, Donghyeon; Choi, Yonghwa; Lee, Kyubum; Kim, Byounggun; Jeon, Minji; Kim, Jihye; Tan, Aik Choon; Kang, Jaewoo

2018-01-05

With the development of artificial intelligence (AI) technology centered on deep-learning, the computer has evolved to a point where it can read a given text and answer a question based on the context of the text. Such a specific task is known as the task of machine comprehension. Existing machine comprehension tasks mostly use datasets of general texts, such as news articles or elementary school-level storybooks. However, no attempt has been made to determine whether an up-to-date deep learning-based machine comprehension model can also process scientific literature containing expert-level knowledge, especially in the biomedical domain. This study aims to investigate whether a machine comprehension model can process biomedical articles as well as general texts. Since there is no dataset for the biomedical literature comprehension task, our work includes generating a large-scale question answering dataset using PubMed and manually evaluating the generated dataset. We present an attention-based deep neural model tailored to the biomedical domain. To further enhance the performance of our model, we used a pretrained word vector and biomedical entity type embedding. We also developed an ensemble method of combining the results of several independent models to reduce the variance of the answers from the models. The experimental results showed that our proposed deep neural network model outperformed the baseline model by more than 7% on the new dataset. We also evaluated human performance on the new dataset. The human evaluation result showed that our deep neural model outperformed humans in comprehension by 22% on average. In this work, we introduced a new task of machine comprehension in the biomedical domain using a deep neural model. Since there was no large-scale dataset for training deep neural models in the biomedical domain, we created the new cloze-style datasets Biomedical Knowledge Comprehension Title (BMKC_T) and Biomedical Knowledge Comprehension Last

Dissociation between the neural correlates of conscious face perception and visual attention.

Science.gov (United States)

Navajas, Joaquin; Nitka, Aleksander W; Quian Quiroga, Rodrigo

2017-08-01

Given the higher chance to recognize attended compared to unattended stimuli, the specific neural correlates of these two processes, attention and awareness, tend to be intermingled in experimental designs. In this study, we dissociated the neural correlates of conscious face perception from the effects of visual attention. To do this, we presented faces at the threshold of awareness and manipulated attention through the use of exogenous prestimulus cues. We show that the N170 component, a scalp EEG marker of face perception, was modulated independently by attention and by awareness. An earlier P1 component was not modulated by either of the two effects and a later P3 component was indicative of awareness but not of attention. These claims are supported by converging evidence from (a) modulations observed in the average evoked potentials, (b) correlations between neural and behavioral data at the single-subject level, and (c) single-trial analyses. Overall, our results show a clear dissociation between the neural substrates of attention and awareness. Based on these results, we argue that conscious face perception is triggered by a boost in face-selective cortical ensembles that can be modulated by, but are still independent from, visual attention. © 2017 Society for Psychophysiological Research.

Uncertainty visualization in HARDI based on ensembles of ODFs

KAUST Repository

Jiao, Fangxiang; Phillips, Jeff M.; Gur, Yaniv; Johnson, Chris R.

2012-01-01

In this paper, we propose a new and accurate technique for uncertainty analysis and uncertainty visualization based on fiber orientation distribution function (ODF) glyphs, associated with high angular resolution diffusion imaging (HARDI). Our visualization applies volume rendering techniques to an ensemble of 3D ODF glyphs, which we call SIP functions of diffusion shapes, to capture their variability due to underlying uncertainty. This rendering elucidates the complex heteroscedastic structural variation in these shapes. Furthermore, we quantify the extent of this variation by measuring the fraction of the volume of these shapes, which is consistent across all noise levels, the certain volume ratio. Our uncertainty analysis and visualization framework is then applied to synthetic data, as well as to HARDI human-brain data, to study the impact of various image acquisition parameters and background noise levels on the diffusion shapes. © 2012 IEEE.

Uncertainty visualization in HARDI based on ensembles of ODFs

KAUST Repository

Jiao, Fangxiang

2012-02-01

In this paper, we propose a new and accurate technique for uncertainty analysis and uncertainty visualization based on fiber orientation distribution function (ODF) glyphs, associated with high angular resolution diffusion imaging (HARDI). Our visualization applies volume rendering techniques to an ensemble of 3D ODF glyphs, which we call SIP functions of diffusion shapes, to capture their variability due to underlying uncertainty. This rendering elucidates the complex heteroscedastic structural variation in these shapes. Furthermore, we quantify the extent of this variation by measuring the fraction of the volume of these shapes, which is consistent across all noise levels, the certain volume ratio. Our uncertainty analysis and visualization framework is then applied to synthetic data, as well as to HARDI human-brain data, to study the impact of various image acquisition parameters and background noise levels on the diffusion shapes. © 2012 IEEE.

Long-term ensemble forecast of snowmelt inflow into the Cheboksary Reservoir under two different weather scenarios

Science.gov (United States)

Gelfan, Alexander; Moreydo, Vsevolod; Motovilov, Yury; Solomatine, Dimitri P.

2018-04-01

A long-term forecasting ensemble methodology, applied to water inflows into the Cheboksary Reservoir (Russia), is presented. The methodology is based on a version of the semi-distributed hydrological model ECOMAG (ECOlogical Model for Applied Geophysics) that allows for the calculation of an ensemble of inflow hydrographs using two different sets of weather ensembles for the lead time period: observed weather data, constructed on the basis of the Ensemble Streamflow Prediction methodology (ESP-based forecast), and synthetic weather data, simulated by a multi-site weather generator (WG-based forecast). We have studied the following: (1) whether there is any advantage of the developed ensemble forecasts in comparison with the currently issued operational forecasts of water inflow into the Cheboksary Reservoir, and (2) whether there is any noticeable improvement in probabilistic forecasts when using the WG-simulated ensemble compared to the ESP-based ensemble. We have found that for a 35-year period beginning from the reservoir filling in 1982, both continuous and binary model-based ensemble forecasts (issued in the deterministic form) outperform the operational forecasts of the April-June inflow volume actually used and, additionally, provide acceptable forecasts of additional water regime characteristics besides the inflow volume. We have also demonstrated that the model performance measures (in the verification period) obtained from the WG-based probabilistic forecasts, which are based on a large number of possible weather scenarios, appeared to be more statistically reliable than the corresponding measures calculated from the ESP-based forecasts based on the observed weather scenarios.

Long-term ensemble forecast of snowmelt inflow into the Cheboksary Reservoir under two different weather scenarios

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

A. Gelfan

2018-04-01

Full Text Available A long-term forecasting ensemble methodology, applied to water inflows into the Cheboksary Reservoir (Russia, is presented. The methodology is based on a version of the semi-distributed hydrological model ECOMAG (ECOlogical Model for Applied Geophysics that allows for the calculation of an ensemble of inflow hydrographs using two different sets of weather ensembles for the lead time period: observed weather data, constructed on the basis of the Ensemble Streamflow Prediction methodology (ESP-based forecast, and synthetic weather data, simulated by a multi-site weather generator (WG-based forecast. We have studied the following: (1 whether there is any advantage of the developed ensemble forecasts in comparison with the currently issued operational forecasts of water inflow into the Cheboksary Reservoir, and (2 whether there is any noticeable improvement in probabilistic forecasts when using the WG-simulated ensemble compared to the ESP-based ensemble. We have found that for a 35-year period beginning from the reservoir filling in 1982, both continuous and binary model-based ensemble forecasts (issued in the deterministic form outperform the operational forecasts of the April–June inflow volume actually used and, additionally, provide acceptable forecasts of additional water regime characteristics besides the inflow volume. We have also demonstrated that the model performance measures (in the verification period obtained from the WG-based probabilistic forecasts, which are based on a large number of possible weather scenarios, appeared to be more statistically reliable than the corresponding measures calculated from the ESP-based forecasts based on the observed weather scenarios.

Memristor-based neural networks

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Thomas, Andy

2013-01-01

The synapse is a crucial element in biological neural networks, but a simple electronic equivalent has been absent. This complicates the development of hardware that imitates biological architectures in the nervous system. Now, the recent progress in the experimental realization of memristive devices has renewed interest in artificial neural networks. The resistance of a memristive system depends on its past states and exactly this functionality can be used to mimic the synaptic connections in a (human) brain. After a short introduction to memristors, we present and explain the relevant mechanisms in a biological neural network, such as long-term potentiation and spike time-dependent plasticity, and determine the minimal requirements for an artificial neural network. We review the implementations of these processes using basic electric circuits and more complex mechanisms that either imitate biological systems or could act as a model system for them. (topical review)

Advanced neural network-based computational schemes for robust fault diagnosis

CERN Document Server

Mrugalski, Marcin

2014-01-01

The present book is devoted to problems of adaptation of artificial neural networks to robust fault diagnosis schemes. It presents neural networks-based modelling and estimation techniques used for designing robust fault diagnosis schemes for non-linear dynamic systems. A part of the book focuses on fundamental issues such as architectures of dynamic neural networks, methods for designing of neural networks and fault diagnosis schemes as well as the importance of robustness. The book is of a tutorial value and can be perceived as a good starting point for the new-comers to this field. The book is also devoted to advanced schemes of description of neural model uncertainty. In particular, the methods of computation of neural networks uncertainty with robust parameter estimation are presented. Moreover, a novel approach for system identification with the state-space GMDH neural network is delivered. All the concepts described in this book are illustrated by both simple academic illustrative examples and practica...

Nonlinear control strategy based on using a shape-tunable neural controller

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Chen, C.; Peng, S. [Feng Chia Univ, Taichung (Taiwan, Province of China). Department of chemical Engineering; Chang, W. [Feng Chia Univ, Taichung (Taiwan, Province of China). Department of Automatic Control

1997-08-01

In this paper, a nonlinear control strategy based on using a shape-tunable neural network is developed for adaptive control of nonlinear processes. Based on the steepest descent method, a learning algorithm that enables the neural controller to possess the ability of automatic controller output range adjustment is derived. The novel feature of automatic output range adjustment provides the neural controller more flexibility and capability, and therefore the scaling procedure, which is usually unavoidable for the conventional fixed-shape neural controllers, becomes unnecessary. The advantages and effectiveness of the proposed nonlinear control strategy are demonstrated through the challenge problem of controlling an open-loop unstable nonlinear continuous stirred tank reactor (CSTR). 14 refs., 11 figs.

Current path in light emitting diodes based on nanowire ensembles

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Limbach, F; Hauswald, C; Lähnemann, J; Wölz, M; Brandt, O; Trampert, A; Hanke, M; Jahn, U; Calarco, R; Geelhaar, L; Riechert, H

2012-01-01

Light emitting diodes (LEDs) have been fabricated using ensembles of free-standing (In, Ga)N/GaN nanowires (NWs) grown on Si substrates in the self-induced growth mode by molecular beam epitaxy. Electron-beam-induced current analysis, cathodoluminescence as well as biased μ-photoluminescence spectroscopy, transmission electron microscopy, and electrical measurements indicate that the electroluminescence of such LEDs is governed by the differences in the individual current densities of the single-NW LEDs operated in parallel, i.e. by the inhomogeneity of the current path in the ensemble LED. In addition, the optoelectronic characterization leads to the conclusion that these NWs exhibit N-polarity and that the (In, Ga)N quantum well states in the NWs are subject to a non-vanishing quantum confined Stark effect. (paper)

An ensemble based nonlinear orthogonal matching pursuit algorithm for sparse history matching of reservoir models

KAUST Repository

Fsheikh, Ahmed H.; Wheeler, Mary Fanett; Hoteit, Ibrahim

2013-01-01

the dictionary, the solution is obtained by applying Tikhonov regularization. The proposed algorithm relies on approximate gradient estimation using an iterative stochastic ensemble method (ISEM). ISEM utilizes an ensemble of directional derivatives

Neural network-based nonlinear model predictive control vs. linear quadratic gaussian control

Science.gov (United States)

Cho, C.; Vance, R.; Mardi, N.; Qian, Z.; Prisbrey, K.

1997-01-01

One problem with the application of neural networks to the multivariable control of mineral and extractive processes is determining whether and how to use them. The objective of this investigation was to compare neural network control to more conventional strategies and to determine if there are any advantages in using neural network control in terms of set-point tracking, rise time, settling time, disturbance rejection and other criteria. The procedure involved developing neural network controllers using both historical plant data and simulation models. Various control patterns were tried, including both inverse and direct neural network plant models. These were compared to state space controllers that are, by nature, linear. For grinding and leaching circuits, a nonlinear neural network-based model predictive control strategy was superior to a state space-based linear quadratic gaussian controller. The investigation pointed out the importance of incorporating state space into neural networks by making them recurrent, i.e., feeding certain output state variables into input nodes in the neural network. It was concluded that neural network controllers can have better disturbance rejection, set-point tracking, rise time, settling time and lower set-point overshoot, and it was also concluded that neural network controllers can be more reliable and easy to implement in complex, multivariable plants.

DWI-based neural fingerprinting technology: a preliminary study on stroke analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Ye, Chenfei; Ma, Heather Ting; Wu, Jun; Yang, Pengfei; Chen, Xuhui; Yang, Zhengyi; Ma, Jingbo

2014-01-01

Stroke is a common neural disorder in neurology clinics. Magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) has become an important tool to assess the neural physiological changes under stroke, such as diffusion weighted imaging (DWI) and diffusion tensor imaging (DTI). Quantitative analysis of MRI images would help medical doctors to localize the stroke area in the diagnosis in terms of structural information and physiological characterization. However, current quantitative approaches can only provide localization of the disorder rather than measure physiological variation of subtypes of ischemic stroke. In the current study, we hypothesize that each kind of neural disorder would have its unique physiological characteristics, which could be reflected by DWI images on different gradients. Based on this hypothesis, a DWI-based neural fingerprinting technology was proposed to classify subtypes of ischemic stroke. The neural fingerprint was constructed by the signal intensity of the region of interest (ROI) on the DWI images under different gradients. The fingerprint derived from the manually drawn ROI could classify the subtypes with accuracy 100%. However, the classification accuracy was worse when using semiautomatic and automatic method in ROI segmentation. The preliminary results showed promising potential of DWI-based neural fingerprinting technology in stroke subtype classification. Further studies will be carried out for enhancing the fingerprinting accuracy and its application in other clinical practices.

Deep neural networks show an equivalent and often superior performance to dermatologists in onychomycosis diagnosis: Automatic construction of onychomycosis datasets by region-based convolutional deep neural network.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Seung Seog Han

Full Text Available Although there have been reports of the successful diagnosis of skin disorders using deep learning, unrealistically large clinical image datasets are required for artificial intelligence (AI training. We created datasets of standardized nail images using a region-based convolutional neural network (R-CNN trained to distinguish the nail from the background. We used R-CNN to generate training datasets of 49,567 images, which we then used to fine-tune the ResNet-152 and VGG-19 models. The validation datasets comprised 100 and 194 images from Inje University (B1 and B2 datasets, respectively, 125 images from Hallym University (C dataset, and 939 images from Seoul National University (D dataset. The AI (ensemble model; ResNet-152 + VGG-19 + feedforward neural networks results showed test sensitivity/specificity/ area under the curve values of (96.0 / 94.7 / 0.98, (82.7 / 96.7 / 0.95, (92.3 / 79.3 / 0.93, (87.7 / 69.3 / 0.82 for the B1, B2, C, and D datasets. With a combination of the B1 and C datasets, the AI Youden index was significantly (p = 0.01 higher than that of 42 dermatologists doing the same assessment manually. For B1+C and B2+ D dataset combinations, almost none of the dermatologists performed as well as the AI. By training with a dataset comprising 49,567 images, we achieved a diagnostic accuracy for onychomycosis using deep learning that was superior to that of most of the dermatologists who participated in this study.

Deep neural networks show an equivalent and often superior performance to dermatologists in onychomycosis diagnosis: Automatic construction of onychomycosis datasets by region-based convolutional deep neural network.

Science.gov (United States)

Han, Seung Seog; Park, Gyeong Hun; Lim, Woohyung; Kim, Myoung Shin; Na, Jung Im; Park, Ilwoo; Chang, Sung Eun

2018-01-01

Although there have been reports of the successful diagnosis of skin disorders using deep learning, unrealistically large clinical image datasets are required for artificial intelligence (AI) training. We created datasets of standardized nail images using a region-based convolutional neural network (R-CNN) trained to distinguish the nail from the background. We used R-CNN to generate training datasets of 49,567 images, which we then used to fine-tune the ResNet-152 and VGG-19 models. The validation datasets comprised 100 and 194 images from Inje University (B1 and B2 datasets, respectively), 125 images from Hallym University (C dataset), and 939 images from Seoul National University (D dataset). The AI (ensemble model; ResNet-152 + VGG-19 + feedforward neural networks) results showed test sensitivity/specificity/ area under the curve values of (96.0 / 94.7 / 0.98), (82.7 / 96.7 / 0.95), (92.3 / 79.3 / 0.93), (87.7 / 69.3 / 0.82) for the B1, B2, C, and D datasets. With a combination of the B1 and C datasets, the AI Youden index was significantly (p = 0.01) higher than that of 42 dermatologists doing the same assessment manually. For B1+C and B2+ D dataset combinations, almost none of the dermatologists performed as well as the AI. By training with a dataset comprising 49,567 images, we achieved a diagnostic accuracy for onychomycosis using deep learning that was superior to that of most of the dermatologists who participated in this study.

Eigenfunction statistics of Wishart Brownian ensembles

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Shukla, Pragya

2017-01-01

We theoretically analyze the eigenfunction fluctuation measures for a Hermitian ensemble which appears as an intermediate state of the perturbation of a stationary ensemble by another stationary ensemble of Wishart (Laguerre) type. Similar to the perturbation by a Gaussian stationary ensemble, the measures undergo a diffusive dynamics in terms of the perturbation parameter but the energy-dependence of the fluctuations is different in the two cases. This may have important consequences for the eigenfunction dynamics as well as phase transition studies in many areas of complexity where Brownian ensembles appear. (paper)

The Development of Target-Specific Pose Filter Ensembles To Boost Ligand Enrichment for Structure-Based Virtual Screening.

Science.gov (United States)

Xia, Jie; Hsieh, Jui-Hua; Hu, Huabin; Wu, Song; Wang, Xiang Simon

2017-06-26

Structure-based virtual screening (SBVS) has become an indispensable technique for hit identification at the early stage of drug discovery. However, the accuracy of current scoring functions is not high enough to confer success to every target and thus remains to be improved. Previously, we had developed binary pose filters (PFs) using knowledge derived from the protein-ligand interface of a single X-ray structure of a specific target. This novel approach had been validated as an effective way to improve ligand enrichment. Continuing from it, in the present work we attempted to incorporate knowledge collected from diverse protein-ligand interfaces of multiple crystal structures of the same target to build PF ensembles (PFEs). Toward this end, we first constructed a comprehensive data set to meet the requirements of ensemble modeling and validation. This set contains 10 diverse targets, 118 well-prepared X-ray structures of protein-ligand complexes, and large benchmarking actives/decoys sets. Notably, we designed a unique workflow of two-layer classifiers based on the concept of ensemble learning and applied it to the construction of PFEs for all of the targets. Through extensive benchmarking studies, we demonstrated that (1) coupling PFE with Chemgauss4 significantly improves the early enrichment of Chemgauss4 itself and (2) PFEs show greater consistency in boosting early enrichment and larger overall enrichment than our prior PFs. In addition, we analyzed the pairwise topological similarities among cognate ligands used to construct PFEs and found that it is the higher chemical diversity of the cognate ligands that leads to the improved performance of PFEs. Taken together, the results so far prove that the incorporation of knowledge from diverse protein-ligand interfaces by ensemble modeling is able to enhance the screening competence of SBVS scoring functions.

Assessing an ensemble Kalman filter inference of Manning’s n coefficient of an idealized tidal inlet against a polynomial chaos-based MCMC

KAUST Repository

Siripatana, Adil

2017-06-08

Bayesian estimation/inversion is commonly used to quantify and reduce modeling uncertainties in coastal ocean model, especially in the framework of parameter estimation. Based on Bayes rule, the posterior probability distribution function (pdf) of the estimated quantities is obtained conditioned on available data. It can be computed either directly, using a Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) approach, or by sequentially processing the data following a data assimilation approach, which is heavily exploited in large dimensional state estimation problems. The advantage of data assimilation schemes over MCMC-type methods arises from the ability to algorithmically accommodate a large number of uncertain quantities without significant increase in the computational requirements. However, only approximate estimates are generally obtained by this approach due to the restricted Gaussian prior and noise assumptions that are generally imposed in these methods. This contribution aims at evaluating the effectiveness of utilizing an ensemble Kalman-based data assimilation method for parameter estimation of a coastal ocean model against an MCMC polynomial chaos (PC)-based scheme. We focus on quantifying the uncertainties of a coastal ocean ADvanced CIRCulation (ADCIRC) model with respect to the Manning’s n coefficients. Based on a realistic framework of observation system simulation experiments (OSSEs), we apply an ensemble Kalman filter and the MCMC method employing a surrogate of ADCIRC constructed by a non-intrusive PC expansion for evaluating the likelihood, and test both approaches under identical scenarios. We study the sensitivity of the estimated posteriors with respect to the parameters of the inference methods, including ensemble size, inflation factor, and PC order. A full analysis of both methods, in the context of coastal ocean model, suggests that an ensemble Kalman filter with appropriate ensemble size and well-tuned inflation provides reliable mean estimates and

Skill forecasting from different wind power ensemble prediction methods

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pinson, Pierre; Nielsen, Henrik A; Madsen, Henrik; Kariniotakis, George

2007-01-01

This paper presents an investigation on alternative approaches to the providing of uncertainty estimates associated to point predictions of wind generation. Focus is given to skill forecasts in the form of prediction risk indices, aiming at giving a comprehensive signal on the expected level of forecast uncertainty. Ensemble predictions of wind generation are used as input. A proposal for the definition of prediction risk indices is given. Such skill forecasts are based on the dispersion of ensemble members for a single prediction horizon, or over a set of successive look-ahead times. It is shown on the test case of a Danish offshore wind farm how prediction risk indices may be related to several levels of forecast uncertainty (and energy imbalances). Wind power ensemble predictions are derived from the transformation of ECMWF and NCEP ensembles of meteorological variables to power, as well as by a lagged average approach alternative. The ability of risk indices calculated from the various types of ensembles forecasts to resolve among situations with different levels of uncertainty is discussed

Measuring social interaction in music ensembles.

Science.gov (United States)

Volpe, Gualtiero; D'Ausilio, Alessandro; Badino, Leonardo; Camurri, Antonio; Fadiga, Luciano

2016-05-05

Music ensembles are an ideal test-bed for quantitative analysis of social interaction. Music is an inherently social activity, and music ensembles offer a broad variety of scenarios which are particularly suitable for investigation. Small ensembles, such as string quartets, are deemed a significant example of self-managed teams, where all musicians contribute equally to a task. In bigger ensembles, such as orchestras, the relationship between a leader (the conductor) and a group of followers (the musicians) clearly emerges. This paper presents an overview of recent research on social interaction in music ensembles with a particular focus on (i) studies from cognitive neuroscience; and (ii) studies adopting a computational approach for carrying out automatic quantitative analysis of ensemble music performances. © 2016 The Author(s).

Impact of ensemble learning in the assessment of skeletal maturity.

Science.gov (United States)

Cunha, Pedro; Moura, Daniel C; Guevara López, Miguel Angel; Guerra, Conceição; Pinto, Daniela; Ramos, Isabel

2014-09-01

The assessment of the bone age, or skeletal maturity, is an important task in pediatrics that measures the degree of maturation of children's bones. Nowadays, there is no standard clinical procedure for assessing bone age and the most widely used approaches are the Greulich and Pyle and the Tanner and Whitehouse methods. Computer methods have been proposed to automatize the process; however, there is a lack of exploration about how to combine the features of the different parts of the hand, and how to take advantage of ensemble techniques for this purpose. This paper presents a study where the use of ensemble techniques for improving bone age assessment is evaluated. A new computer method was developed that extracts descriptors for each joint of each finger, which are then combined using different ensemble schemes for obtaining a final bone age value. Three popular ensemble schemes are explored in this study: bagging, stacking and voting. Best results were achieved by bagging with a rule-based regression (M5P), scoring a mean absolute error of 10.16 months. Results show that ensemble techniques improve the prediction performance of most of the evaluated regression algorithms, always achieving best or comparable to best results. Therefore, the success of the ensemble methods allow us to conclude that their use may improve computer-based bone age assessment, offering a scalable option for utilizing multiple regions of interest and combining their output.

Frequency-difference-dependent stochastic resonance in neural systems

Science.gov (United States)

Guo, Daqing; Perc, Matjaž; Zhang, Yangsong; Xu, Peng; Yao, Dezhong

2017-08-01

Biological neurons receive multiple noisy oscillatory signals, and their dynamical response to the superposition of these signals is of fundamental importance for information processing in the brain. Here we study the response of neural systems to the weak envelope modulation signal, which is superimposed by two periodic signals with different frequencies. We show that stochastic resonance occurs at the beat frequency in neural systems at the single-neuron as well as the population level. The performance of this frequency-difference-dependent stochastic resonance is influenced by both the beat frequency and the two forcing frequencies. Compared to a single neuron, a population of neurons is more efficient in detecting the information carried by the weak envelope modulation signal at the beat frequency. Furthermore, an appropriate fine-tuning of the excitation-inhibition balance can further optimize the response of a neural ensemble to the superimposed signal. Our results thus introduce and provide insights into the generation and modulation mechanism of the frequency-difference-dependent stochastic resonance in neural systems.

DroidEnsemble: Detecting Android Malicious Applications with Ensemble of String and Structural Static Features

KAUST Repository

Wang, Wei

2018-05-11

Android platform has dominated the Operating System of mobile devices. However, the dramatic increase of Android malicious applications (malapps) has caused serious software failures to Android system and posed a great threat to users. The effective detection of Android malapps has thus become an emerging yet crucial issue. Characterizing the behaviors of Android applications (apps) is essential to detecting malapps. Most existing work on detecting Android malapps was mainly based on string static features such as permissions and API usage extracted from apps. There also exists work on the detection of Android malapps with structural features, such as Control Flow Graph (CFG) and Data Flow Graph (DFG). As Android malapps have become increasingly polymorphic and sophisticated, using only one type of static features may result in false negatives. In this work, we propose DroidEnsemble that takes advantages of both string features and structural features to systematically and comprehensively characterize the static behaviors of Android apps and thus build a more accurate detection model for the detection of Android malapps. We extract each app’s string features, including permissions, hardware features, filter intents, restricted API calls, used permissions, code patterns, as well as structural features like function call graph. We then use three machine learning algorithms, namely, Support Vector Machine (SVM), k-Nearest Neighbor (kNN) and Random Forest (RF), to evaluate the performance of these two types of features and of their ensemble. In the experiments, We evaluate our methods and models with 1386 benign apps and 1296 malapps. Extensive experimental results demonstrate the effectiveness of DroidEnsemble. It achieves the detection accuracy as 95.8% with only string features and as 90.68% with only structural features. DroidEnsemble reaches the detection accuracy as 98.4% with the ensemble of both types of features, reducing 9 false positives and 12 false

Ocean Predictability and Uncertainty Forecasts Using Local Ensemble Transfer Kalman Filter (LETKF)

Science.gov (United States)

Wei, M.; Hogan, P. J.; Rowley, C. D.; Smedstad, O. M.; Wallcraft, A. J.; Penny, S. G.

2017-12-01

Ocean predictability and uncertainty are studied with an ensemble system that has been developed based on the US Navy's operational HYCOM using the Local Ensemble Transfer Kalman Filter (LETKF) technology. One of the advantages of this method is that the best possible initial analysis states for the HYCOM forecasts are provided by the LETKF which assimilates operational observations using ensemble method. The background covariance during this assimilation process is implicitly supplied with the ensemble avoiding the difficult task of developing tangent linear and adjoint models out of HYCOM with the complicated hybrid isopycnal vertical coordinate for 4D-VAR. The flow-dependent background covariance from the ensemble will be an indispensable part in the next generation hybrid 4D-Var/ensemble data assimilation system. The predictability and uncertainty for the ocean forecasts are studied initially for the Gulf of Mexico. The results are compared with another ensemble system using Ensemble Transfer (ET) method which has been used in the Navy's operational center. The advantages and disadvantages are discussed.

Pinning synchronization of memristor-based neural networks with time-varying delays.

Science.gov (United States)

Yang, Zhanyu; Luo, Biao; Liu, Derong; Li, Yueheng

2017-09-01

In this paper, the synchronization of memristor-based neural networks with time-varying delays via pinning control is investigated. A novel pinning method is introduced to synchronize two memristor-based neural networks which denote drive system and response system, respectively. The dynamics are studied by theories of differential inclusions and nonsmooth analysis. In addition, some sufficient conditions are derived to guarantee asymptotic synchronization and exponential synchronization of memristor-based neural networks via the presented pinning control. Furthermore, some improvements about the proposed control method are also discussed in this paper. Finally, the effectiveness of the obtained results is demonstrated by numerical simulations. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Effectiveness of firefly algorithm based neural network in time series ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Effectiveness of firefly algorithm based neural network in time series forecasting. ... In the experiments, three well known time series were used to evaluate the performance. Results obtained were compared with ... Keywords: Time series, Artificial Neural Network, Firefly Algorithm, Particle Swarm Optimization, Overfitting ...

Neural Network-Based Resistance Spot Welding Control and Quality Prediction

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Allen, J.D., Jr.; Ivezic, N.D.; Zacharia, T.

1999-07-10

This paper describes the development and evaluation of neural network-based systems for industrial resistance spot welding process control and weld quality assessment. The developed systems utilize recurrent neural networks for process control and both recurrent networks and static networks for quality prediction. The first section describes a system capable of both welding process control and real-time weld quality assessment, The second describes the development and evaluation of a static neural network-based weld quality assessment system that relied on experimental design to limit the influence of environmental variability. Relevant data analysis methods are also discussed. The weld classifier resulting from the analysis successfldly balances predictive power and simplicity of interpretation. The results presented for both systems demonstrate clearly that neural networks can be employed to address two significant problems common to the resistance spot welding industry, control of the process itself, and non-destructive determination of resulting weld quality.

Joys of Community Ensemble Playing: The Case of the Happy Roll Elastic Ensemble in Taiwan

Science.gov (United States)

Hsieh, Yuan-Mei; Kao, Kai-Chi

2012-01-01

The Happy Roll Elastic Ensemble (HREE) is a community music ensemble supported by Tainan Culture Centre in Taiwan. With enjoyment and friendship as its primary goals, it aims to facilitate the joys of ensemble playing and the spirit of social networking. This article highlights the key aspects of HREE's development in its first two years…

MATLAB Simulation of Gradient-Based Neural Network for Online Matrix Inversion

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Yunong; Chen, Ke; Ma, Weimu; Li, Xiao-Dong

This paper investigates the simulation of a gradient-based recurrent neural network for online solution of the matrix-inverse problem. Several important techniques are employed as follows to simulate such a neural system. 1) Kronecker product of matrices is introduced to transform a matrix-differential-equation (MDE) to a vector-differential-equation (VDE); i.e., finally, a standard ordinary-differential-equation (ODE) is obtained. 2) MATLAB routine "ode45" is introduced to solve the transformed initial-value ODE problem. 3) In addition to various implementation errors, different kinds of activation functions are simulated to show the characteristics of such a neural network. Simulation results substantiate the theoretical analysis and efficacy of the gradient-based neural network for online constant matrix inversion.

Ensemble Data Mining Methods

Science.gov (United States)

Oza, Nikunj C.

2004-01-01

Ensemble Data Mining Methods, also known as Committee Methods or Model Combiners, are machine learning methods that leverage the power of multiple models to achieve better prediction accuracy than any of the individual models could on their own. The basic goal when designing an ensemble is the same as when establishing a committee of people: each member of the committee should be as competent as possible, but the members should be complementary to one another. If the members are not complementary, Le., if they always agree, then the committee is unnecessary---any one member is sufficient. If the members are complementary, then when one or a few members make an error, the probability is high that the remaining members can correct this error. Research in ensemble methods has largely revolved around designing ensembles consisting of competent yet complementary models.

Tailored Random Graph Ensembles

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Roberts, E S; Annibale, A; Coolen, A C C

2013-01-01

Tailored graph ensembles are a developing bridge between biological networks and statistical mechanics. The aim is to use this concept to generate a suite of rigorous tools that can be used to quantify and compare the topology of cellular signalling networks, such as protein-protein interaction networks and gene regulation networks. We calculate exact and explicit formulae for the leading orders in the system size of the Shannon entropies of random graph ensembles constrained with degree distribution and degree-degree correlation. We also construct an ergodic detailed balance Markov chain with non-trivial acceptance probabilities which converges to a strictly uniform measure and is based on edge swaps that conserve all degrees. The acceptance probabilities can be generalized to define Markov chains that target any alternative desired measure on the space of directed or undirected graphs, in order to generate graphs with more sophisticated topological features.

Gridded Calibration of Ensemble Wind Vector Forecasts Using Ensemble Model Output Statistics

Science.gov (United States)

Lazarus, S. M.; Holman, B. P.; Splitt, M. E.

2017-12-01

A computationally efficient method is developed that performs gridded post processing of ensemble wind vector forecasts. An expansive set of idealized WRF model simulations are generated to provide physically consistent high resolution winds over a coastal domain characterized by an intricate land / water mask. Ensemble model output statistics (EMOS) is used to calibrate the ensemble wind vector forecasts at observation locations. The local EMOS predictive parameters (mean and variance) are then spread throughout the grid utilizing flow-dependent statistical relationships extracted from the downscaled WRF winds. Using data withdrawal and 28 east central Florida stations, the method is applied to one year of 24 h wind forecasts from the Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS). Compared to the raw GEFS, the approach improves both the deterministic and probabilistic forecast skill. Analysis of multivariate rank histograms indicate the post processed forecasts are calibrated. Two downscaling case studies are presented, a quiescent easterly flow event and a frontal passage. Strengths and weaknesses of the approach are presented and discussed.

Neural Cell Chip Based Electrochemical Detection of Nanotoxicity.

Science.gov (United States)

Kafi, Md Abdul; Cho, Hyeon-Yeol; Choi, Jeong Woo

2015-07-02

Development of a rapid, sensitive and cost-effective method for toxicity assessment of commonly used nanoparticles is urgently needed for the sustainable development of nanotechnology. A neural cell with high sensitivity and conductivity has become a potential candidate for a cell chip to investigate toxicity of environmental influences. A neural cell immobilized on a conductive surface has become a potential tool for the assessment of nanotoxicity based on electrochemical methods. The effective electrochemical monitoring largely depends on the adequate attachment of a neural cell on the chip surfaces. Recently, establishment of integrin receptor specific ligand molecules arginine-glycine-aspartic acid (RGD) or its several modifications RGD-Multi Armed Peptide terminated with cysteine (RGD-MAP-C), C(RGD)₄ ensure farm attachment of neural cell on the electrode surfaces either in their two dimensional (dot) or three dimensional (rod or pillar) like nano-scale arrangement. A three dimensional RGD modified electrode surface has been proven to be more suitable for cell adhesion, proliferation, differentiation as well as electrochemical measurement. This review discusses fabrication as well as electrochemical measurements of neural cell chip with particular emphasis on their use for nanotoxicity assessments sequentially since inception to date. Successful monitoring of quantum dot (QD), graphene oxide (GO) and cosmetic compound toxicity using the newly developed neural cell chip were discussed here as a case study. This review recommended that a neural cell chip established on a nanostructured ligand modified conductive surface can be a potential tool for the toxicity assessments of newly developed nanomaterials prior to their use on biology or biomedical technologies.

Neural Cell Chip Based Electrochemical Detection of Nanotoxicity

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Md. Abdul Kafi

2015-07-01

Full Text Available Development of a rapid, sensitive and cost-effective method for toxicity assessment of commonly used nanoparticles is urgently needed for the sustainable development of nanotechnology. A neural cell with high sensitivity and conductivity has become a potential candidate for a cell chip to investigate toxicity of environmental influences. A neural cell immobilized on a conductive surface has become a potential tool for the assessment of nanotoxicity based on electrochemical methods. The effective electrochemical monitoring largely depends on the adequate attachment of a neural cell on the chip surfaces. Recently, establishment of integrin receptor specific ligand molecules arginine-glycine-aspartic acid (RGD or its several modifications RGD-Multi Armed Peptide terminated with cysteine (RGD-MAP-C, C(RGD4 ensure farm attachment of neural cell on the electrode surfaces either in their two dimensional (dot or three dimensional (rod or pillar like nano-scale arrangement. A three dimensional RGD modified electrode surface has been proven to be more suitable for cell adhesion, proliferation, differentiation as well as electrochemical measurement. This review discusses fabrication as well as electrochemical measurements of neural cell chip with particular emphasis on their use for nanotoxicity assessments sequentially since inception to date. Successful monitoring of quantum dot (QD, graphene oxide (GO and cosmetic compound toxicity using the newly developed neural cell chip were discussed here as a case study. This review recommended that a neural cell chip established on a nanostructured ligand modified conductive surface can be a potential tool for the toxicity assessments of newly developed nanomaterials prior to their use on biology or biomedical technologies.

Regression trees for predicting mortality in patients with cardiovascular disease: What improvement is achieved by using ensemble-based methods?

Science.gov (United States)

Austin, Peter C; Lee, Douglas S; Steyerberg, Ewout W; Tu, Jack V

2012-01-01

In biomedical research, the logistic regression model is the most commonly used method for predicting the probability of a binary outcome. While many clinical researchers have expressed an enthusiasm for regression trees, this method may have limited accuracy for predicting health outcomes. We aimed to evaluate the improvement that is achieved by using ensemble-based methods, including bootstrap aggregation (bagging) of regression trees, random forests, and boosted regression trees. We analyzed 30-day mortality in two large cohorts of patients hospitalized with either acute myocardial infarction (N = 16,230) or congestive heart failure (N = 15,848) in two distinct eras (1999–2001 and 2004–2005). We found that both the in-sample and out-of-sample prediction of ensemble methods offered substantial improvement in predicting cardiovascular mortality compared to conventional regression trees. However, conventional logistic regression models that incorporated restricted cubic smoothing splines had even better performance. We conclude that ensemble methods from the data mining and machine learning literature increase the predictive performance of regression trees, but may not lead to clear advantages over conventional logistic regression models for predicting short-term mortality in population-based samples of subjects with cardiovascular disease. PMID:22777999

Unfolding code for neutron spectrometry based on neural nets technology

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ortiz R, J. M.; Vega C, H. R.

2012-10-01

The most delicate part of neutron spectrometry, is the unfolding process. The derivation of the spectral information is not simple because the unknown is not given directly as a result of the measurements. The drawbacks associated with traditional unfolding procedures have motivated the need of complementary approaches. Novel methods based on Artificial Neural Networks have been widely investigated. In this work, a neutron spectrum unfolding code based on neural nets technology is presented. This unfolding code called Neutron Spectrometry and Dosimetry by means of Artificial Neural Networks was designed in a graphical interface under LabVIEW programming environment. The core of the code is an embedded neural network architecture, previously optimized by the R obust Design of Artificial Neural Networks Methodology . The main features of the code are: is easy to use, friendly and intuitive to the user. This code was designed for a Bonner Sphere System based on a 6 Lil(Eu) neutron detector and a response matrix expressed in 60 energy bins taken from an International Atomic Energy Agency compilation. The main feature of the code is that as entrance data, only seven rate counts measurement with a Bonner spheres spectrometer are required for simultaneously unfold the 60 energy bins of the neutron spectrum and to calculate 15 dosimetric quantities, for radiation protection porpoises. This code generates a full report in html format with all relevant information. (Author)

Ensemble Manifold Rank Preserving for Acceleration-Based Human Activity Recognition.

Science.gov (United States)

Tao, Dapeng; Jin, Lianwen; Yuan, Yuan; Xue, Yang

2016-06-01

With the rapid development of mobile devices and pervasive computing technologies, acceleration-based human activity recognition, a difficult yet essential problem in mobile apps, has received intensive attention recently. Different acceleration signals for representing different activities or even a same activity have different attributes, which causes troubles in normalizing the signals. We thus cannot directly compare these signals with each other, because they are embedded in a nonmetric space. Therefore, we present a nonmetric scheme that retains discriminative and robust frequency domain information by developing a novel ensemble manifold rank preserving (EMRP) algorithm. EMRP simultaneously considers three aspects: 1) it encodes the local geometry using the ranking order information of intraclass samples distributed on local patches; 2) it keeps the discriminative information by maximizing the margin between samples of different classes; and 3) it finds the optimal linear combination of the alignment matrices to approximate the intrinsic manifold lied in the data. Experiments are conducted on the South China University of Technology naturalistic 3-D acceleration-based activity dataset and the naturalistic mobile-devices based human activity dataset to demonstrate the robustness and effectiveness of the new nonmetric scheme for acceleration-based human activity recognition.

Improving Climate Projections Using "Intelligent" Ensembles

Science.gov (United States)

Baker, Noel C.; Taylor, Patrick C.

2015-01-01

Recent changes in the climate system have led to growing concern, especially in communities which are highly vulnerable to resource shortages and weather extremes. There is an urgent need for better climate information to develop solutions and strategies for adapting to a changing climate. Climate models provide excellent tools for studying the current state of climate and making future projections. However, these models are subject to biases created by structural uncertainties. Performance metrics-or the systematic determination of model biases-succinctly quantify aspects of climate model behavior. Efforts to standardize climate model experiments and collect simulation data-such as the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP)-provide the means to directly compare and assess model performance. Performance metrics have been used to show that some models reproduce present-day climate better than others. Simulation data from multiple models are often used to add value to projections by creating a consensus projection from the model ensemble, in which each model is given an equal weight. It has been shown that the ensemble mean generally outperforms any single model. It is possible to use unequal weights to produce ensemble means, in which models are weighted based on performance (called "intelligent" ensembles). Can performance metrics be used to improve climate projections? Previous work introduced a framework for comparing the utility of model performance metrics, showing that the best metrics are related to the variance of top-of-atmosphere outgoing longwave radiation. These metrics improve present-day climate simulations of Earth's energy budget using the "intelligent" ensemble method. The current project identifies several approaches for testing whether performance metrics can be applied to future simulations to create "intelligent" ensemble-mean climate projections. It is shown that certain performance metrics test key climate processes in the models, and

DWI-Based Neural Fingerprinting Technology: A Preliminary Study on Stroke Analysis

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Chenfei Ye

2014-01-01

Full Text Available Stroke is a common neural disorder in neurology clinics. Magnetic resonance imaging (MRI has become an important tool to assess the neural physiological changes under stroke, such as diffusion weighted imaging (DWI and diffusion tensor imaging (DTI. Quantitative analysis of MRI images would help medical doctors to localize the stroke area in the diagnosis in terms of structural information and physiological characterization. However, current quantitative approaches can only provide localization of the disorder rather than measure physiological variation of subtypes of ischemic stroke. In the current study, we hypothesize that each kind of neural disorder would have its unique physiological characteristics, which could be reflected by DWI images on different gradients. Based on this hypothesis, a DWI-based neural fingerprinting technology was proposed to classify subtypes of ischemic stroke. The neural fingerprint was constructed by the signal intensity of the region of interest (ROI on the DWI images under different gradients. The fingerprint derived from the manually drawn ROI could classify the subtypes with accuracy 100%. However, the classification accuracy was worse when using semiautomatic and automatic method in ROI segmentation. The preliminary results showed promising potential of DWI-based neural fingerprinting technology in stroke subtype classification. Further studies will be carried out for enhancing the fingerprinting accuracy and its application in other clinical practices.

Simultaneous surface and depth neural activity recording with graphene transistor-based dual-modality probes.

Science.gov (United States)

Du, Mingde; Xu, Xianchen; Yang, Long; Guo, Yichuan; Guan, Shouliang; Shi, Jidong; Wang, Jinfen; Fang, Ying

2018-05-15

Subdural surface and penetrating depth probes are widely applied to record neural activities from the cortical surface and intracortical locations of the brain, respectively. Simultaneous surface and depth neural activity recording is essential to understand the linkage between the two modalities. Here, we develop flexible dual-modality neural probes based on graphene transistors. The neural probes exhibit stable electrical performance even under 90° bending because of the excellent mechanical properties of graphene, and thus allow multi-site recording from the subdural surface of rat cortex. In addition, finite element analysis was carried out to investigate the mechanical interactions between probe and cortex tissue during intracortical implantation. Based on the simulation results, a sharp tip angle of π/6 was chosen to facilitate tissue penetration of the neural probes. Accordingly, the graphene transistor-based dual-modality neural probes have been successfully applied for simultaneous surface and depth recording of epileptiform activity of rat brain in vivo. Our results show that graphene transistor-based dual-modality neural probes can serve as a facile and versatile tool to study tempo-spatial patterns of neural activities. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Ensembl 2002: accommodating comparative genomics.

Science.gov (United States)

Clamp, M; Andrews, D; Barker, D; Bevan, P; Cameron, G; Chen, Y; Clark, L; Cox, T; Cuff, J; Curwen, V; Down, T; Durbin, R; Eyras, E; Gilbert, J; Hammond, M; Hubbard, T; Kasprzyk, A; Keefe, D; Lehvaslaiho, H; Iyer, V; Melsopp, C; Mongin, E; Pettett, R; Potter, S; Rust, A; Schmidt, E; Searle, S; Slater, G; Smith, J; Spooner, W; Stabenau, A; Stalker, J; Stupka, E; Ureta-Vidal, A; Vastrik, I; Birney, E

2003-01-01

The Ensembl (http://www.ensembl.org/) database project provides a bioinformatics framework to organise biology around the sequences of large genomes. It is a comprehensive source of stable automatic annotation of human, mouse and other genome sequences, available as either an interactive web site or as flat files. Ensembl also integrates manually annotated gene structures from external sources where available. As well as being one of the leading sources of genome annotation, Ensembl is an open source software engineering project to develop a portable system able to handle very large genomes and associated requirements. These range from sequence analysis to data storage and visualisation and installations exist around the world in both companies and at academic sites. With both human and mouse genome sequences available and more vertebrate sequences to follow, many of the recent developments in Ensembl have focusing on developing automatic comparative genome analysis and visualisation.

Neural network based electron identification in the ZEUS calorimeter

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Abramowicz, H.; Caldwell, A.; Sinkus, R.

1995-01-01

We present an electron identification algorithm based on a neural network approach applied to the ZEUS uranium calorimeter. The study is motivated by the need to select deep inelastic, neutral current, electron proton interactions characterized by the presence of a scattered electron in the final state. The performance of the algorithm is compared to an electron identification method based on a classical probabilistic approach. By means of a principle component analysis the improvement in the performance is traced back to the number of variables used in the neural network approach. (orig.)

Implementation of neural network based non-linear predictive control

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Sørensen, Paul Haase; Nørgård, Peter Magnus; Ravn, Ole

1999-01-01

This paper describes a control method for non-linear systems based on generalized predictive control. Generalized predictive control (GPC) was developed to control linear systems, including open-loop unstable and non-minimum phase systems, but has also been proposed to be extended for the control...... of non-linear systems. GPC is model based and in this paper we propose the use of a neural network for the modeling of the system. Based on the neural network model, a controller with extended control horizon is developed and the implementation issues are discussed, with particular emphasis...... on an efficient quasi-Newton algorithm. The performance is demonstrated on a pneumatic servo system....

Microcanonical ensemble and algebra of conserved generators for generalized quantum dynamics

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Adler, S.L.; Horwitz, L.P.

1996-01-01

It has recently been shown, by application of statistical mechanical methods to determine the canonical ensemble governing the equilibrium distribution of operator initial values, that complex quantum field theory can emerge as a statistical approximation to an underlying generalized quantum dynamics. This result was obtained by an argument based on a Ward identity analogous to the equipartition theorem of classical statistical mechanics. We construct here a microcanonical ensemble which forms the basis of this canonical ensemble. This construction enables us to define the microcanonical entropy and free energy of the field configuration of the equilibrium distribution and to study the stability of the canonical ensemble. We also study the algebraic structure of the conserved generators from which the microcanonical and canonical ensembles are constructed, and the flows they induce on the phase space. copyright 1996 American Institute of Physics

Measures of Coupling between Neural Populations Based on Granger Causality Principle.

Science.gov (United States)

Kaminski, Maciej; Brzezicka, Aneta; Kaminski, Jan; Blinowska, Katarzyna J

2016-01-01

This paper shortly reviews the measures used to estimate neural synchronization in experimental settings. Our focus is on multivariate measures of dependence based on the Granger causality (G-causality) principle, their applications and performance in respect of robustness to noise, volume conduction, common driving, and presence of a "weak node." Application of G-causality measures to EEG, intracranial signals and fMRI time series is addressed. G-causality based measures defined in the frequency domain allow the synchronization between neural populations and the directed propagation of their electrical activity to be determined. The time-varying G-causality based measure Short-time Directed Transfer Function (SDTF) supplies information on the dynamics of synchronization and the organization of neural networks. Inspection of effective connectivity patterns indicates a modular structure of neural networks, with a stronger coupling within modules than between them. The hypothetical plausible mechanism of information processing, suggested by the identified synchronization patterns, is communication between tightly coupled modules intermitted by sparser interactions providing synchronization of distant structures.

Chinese Sentence Classification Based on Convolutional Neural Network

Science.gov (United States)

Gu, Chengwei; Wu, Ming; Zhang, Chuang

2017-10-01

Sentence classification is one of the significant issues in Natural Language Processing (NLP). Feature extraction is often regarded as the key point for natural language processing. Traditional ways based on machine learning can not take high level features into consideration, such as Naive Bayesian Model. The neural network for sentence classification can make use of contextual information to achieve greater results in sentence classification tasks. In this paper, we focus on classifying Chinese sentences. And the most important is that we post a novel architecture of Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) to apply on Chinese sentence classification. In particular, most of the previous methods often use softmax classifier for prediction, we embed a linear support vector machine to substitute softmax in the deep neural network model, minimizing a margin-based loss to get a better result. And we use tanh as an activation function, instead of ReLU. The CNN model improve the result of Chinese sentence classification tasks. Experimental results on the Chinese news title database validate the effectiveness of our model.

Computational neural network regression model for Host based Intrusion Detection System

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sunil Kumar Gautam

2016-09-01

Full Text Available The current scenario of information gathering and storing in secure system is a challenging task due to increasing cyber-attacks. There exists computational neural network techniques designed for intrusion detection system, which provide security to single machine and entire network's machine. In this paper, we have used two types of computational neural network models, namely, Generalized Regression Neural Network (GRNN model and Multilayer Perceptron Neural Network (MPNN model for Host based Intrusion Detection System using log files that are generated by a single personal computer. The simulation results show correctly classified percentage of normal and abnormal (intrusion class using confusion matrix. On the basis of results and discussion, we found that the Host based Intrusion Systems Model (HISM significantly improved the detection accuracy while retaining minimum false alarm rate.

Decorrelation of Neural-Network Activity by Inhibitory Feedback

Science.gov (United States)

Einevoll, Gaute T.; Diesmann, Markus

2012-01-01

Correlations in spike-train ensembles can seriously impair the encoding of information by their spatio-temporal structure. An inevitable source of correlation in finite neural networks is common presynaptic input to pairs of neurons. Recent studies demonstrate that spike correlations in recurrent neural networks are considerably smaller than expected based on the amount of shared presynaptic input. Here, we explain this observation by means of a linear network model and simulations of networks of leaky integrate-and-fire neurons. We show that inhibitory feedback efficiently suppresses pairwise correlations and, hence, population-rate fluctuations, thereby assigning inhibitory neurons the new role of active decorrelation. We quantify this decorrelation by comparing the responses of the intact recurrent network (feedback system) and systems where the statistics of the feedback channel is perturbed (feedforward system). Manipulations of the feedback statistics can lead to a significant increase in the power and coherence of the population response. In particular, neglecting correlations within the ensemble of feedback channels or between the external stimulus and the feedback amplifies population-rate fluctuations by orders of magnitude. The fluctuation suppression in homogeneous inhibitory networks is explained by a negative feedback loop in the one-dimensional dynamics of the compound activity. Similarly, a change of coordinates exposes an effective negative feedback loop in the compound dynamics of stable excitatory-inhibitory networks. The suppression of input correlations in finite networks is explained by the population averaged correlations in the linear network model: In purely inhibitory networks, shared-input correlations are canceled by negative spike-train correlations. In excitatory-inhibitory networks, spike-train correlations are typically positive. Here, the suppression of input correlations is not a result of the mere existence of correlations between

Scalable quantum information processing with atomic ensembles and flying photons

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mei Feng; Yu Yafei; Feng Mang; Zhang Zhiming

2009-01-01

We present a scheme for scalable quantum information processing with atomic ensembles and flying photons. Using the Rydberg blockade, we encode the qubits in the collective atomic states, which could be manipulated fast and easily due to the enhanced interaction in comparison to the single-atom case. We demonstrate that our proposed gating could be applied to generation of two-dimensional cluster states for measurement-based quantum computation. Moreover, the atomic ensembles also function as quantum repeaters useful for long-distance quantum state transfer. We show the possibility of our scheme to work in bad cavity or in weak coupling regime, which could much relax the experimental requirement. The efficient coherent operations on the ensemble qubits enable our scheme to be switchable between quantum computation and quantum communication using atomic ensembles.

Ensemble singular vectors and their use as additive inflation in EnKF

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Shu-Chih Yang

2015-07-01

Full Text Available Given an ensemble of forecasts, it is possible to determine the leading ensemble singular vector (ESV, that is, the linear combination of the forecasts that, given the choice of the perturbation norm and forecast interval, will maximise the growth of the perturbations. Because the ESV indicates the directions of the fastest growing forecast errors, we explore the potential of applying the leading ESVs in ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF for correcting fast-growing errors. The ESVs are derived based on a quasi-geostrophic multi-level channel model, and data assimilation experiments are carried out under framework of the local ensemble transform Kalman filter. We confirm that even during the early spin-up starting with random initial conditions, the final ESVs of the first analysis with a 12-h window are strongly related to the background errors. Since initial ensemble singular vectors (IESVs grow much faster than Lyapunov Vectors (LVs, and the final ensemble singular vectors (FESVs are close to convergence to leading LVs, perturbations based on leading IESVs grow faster than those based on FESVs, and are therefore preferable as additive inflation. The IESVs are applied in the EnKF framework for constructing flow-dependent additive perturbations to inflate the analysis ensemble. Compared with using random perturbations as additive inflation, a positive impact from using ESVs is found especially in areas with large growing errors. When an EnKF is ‘cold-started’ from random perturbations and poor initial condition, results indicate that using the ESVs as additive inflation has the advantage of correcting large errors so that the spin-up of the EnKF can be accelerated.

A variational ensemble scheme for noisy image data assimilation

Science.gov (United States)

Yang, Yin; Robinson, Cordelia; Heitz, Dominique; Mémin, Etienne

2014-05-01

Data assimilation techniques aim at recovering a system state variables trajectory denoted as X, along time from partially observed noisy measurements of the system denoted as Y. These procedures, which couple dynamics and noisy measurements of the system, fulfill indeed a twofold objective. On one hand, they provide a denoising - or reconstruction - procedure of the data through a given model framework and on the other hand, they provide estimation procedures for unknown parameters of the dynamics. A standard variational data assimilation problem can be formulated as the minimization of the following objective function with respect to the initial discrepancy, η, from the background initial guess: δ« J(η(x)) = 1∥Xb (x) - X (t ,x)∥2 + 1 tf∥H(X (t,x ))- Y (t,x)∥2dt. 2 0 0 B 2 t0 R (1) where the observation operator H links the state variable and the measurements. The cost function can be interpreted as the log likelihood function associated to the a posteriori distribution of the state given the past history of measurements and the background. In this work, we aim at studying ensemble based optimal control strategies for data assimilation. Such formulation nicely combines the ingredients of ensemble Kalman filters and variational data assimilation (4DVar). It is also formulated as the minimization of the objective function (1), but similarly to ensemble filter, it introduces in its objective function an empirical ensemble-based background-error covariance defined as: B ≡ )(Xb - )T>. (2) Thus, it works in an off-line smoothing mode rather than on the fly like sequential filters. Such resulting ensemble variational data assimilation technique corresponds to a relatively new family of methods [1,2,3]. It presents two main advantages: first, it does not require anymore to construct the adjoint of the dynamics tangent linear operator, which is a considerable advantage with respect to the method's implementation, and second, it enables the handling of a flow

El Sistema-inspired ensemble music training is associated with changes in children's neurocognitive functional integration: preliminary ERP evidence.

Science.gov (United States)

Hedayati, Nina; Schibli, Kylie; D'Angiulli, Amedeo

2016-12-01

Children (aged 9-12) training in an El Sistema-inspired program (OrKidstra) and a matched comparison group participated in an auditory Go/No-Go task while event-related potentials (ERPs) were recorded. Entire-sweep waveform patterns correlated with known ERP peaks associated with executive and other cognitive functions and indicated that the spread of neural activity in the initial 250 ms of executive attention processing (pre-P300) showed higher level of topographical overlap in OrKidstra children. In these children, late potentials (post-P300) concurrent with response control were more widely distributed and temporally coordinated. Intensive ensemble music training, we suggest, may be associated with neuroplastic changes facilitating integration of neural information.

A neutron spectrum unfolding computer code based on artificial neural networks

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ortiz-Rodríguez, J.M.; Reyes Alfaro, A.; Reyes Haro, A.; Cervantes Viramontes, J.M.; Vega-Carrillo, H.R.

2014-01-01

The Bonner Spheres Spectrometer consists of a thermal neutron sensor placed at the center of a number of moderating polyethylene spheres of different diameters. From the measured readings, information can be derived about the spectrum of the neutron field where measurements were made. Disadvantages of the Bonner system are the weight associated with each sphere and the need to sequentially irradiate the spheres, requiring long exposure periods. Provided a well-established response matrix and adequate irradiation conditions, the most delicate part of neutron spectrometry, is the unfolding process. The derivation of the spectral information is not simple because the unknown is not given directly as a result of the measurements. The drawbacks associated with traditional unfolding procedures have motivated the need of complementary approaches. Novel methods based on Artificial Intelligence, mainly Artificial Neural Networks, have been widely investigated. In this work, a neutron spectrum unfolding code based on neural nets technology is presented. This code is called Neutron Spectrometry and Dosimetry with Artificial Neural networks unfolding code that was designed in a graphical interface. The core of the code is an embedded neural network architecture previously optimized using the robust design of artificial neural networks methodology. The main features of the code are: easy to use, friendly and intuitive to the user. This code was designed for a Bonner Sphere System based on a 6 LiI(Eu) neutron detector and a response matrix expressed in 60 energy bins taken from an International Atomic Energy Agency compilation. The main feature of the code is that as entrance data, for unfolding the neutron spectrum, only seven rate counts measured with seven Bonner spheres are required; simultaneously the code calculates 15 dosimetric quantities as well as the total flux for radiation protection purposes. This code generates a full report with all information of the unfolding

Generation of Exotic Quantum States of a Cold Atomic Ensemble

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Christensen, Stefan Lund

Over the last decades quantum effects have become more and more controllable, leading to the implementations of various quantum information protocols. These protocols are all based on utilizing quantum correlation. In this thesis we consider how states of an atomic ensemble with such correlations...... can be created and characterized. First we consider a spin-squeezed state. This state is generated by performing quantum non-demolition measurements of the atomic population difference. We show a spectroscopically relevant noise reduction of -1.7dB, the ensemble is in a many-body entangled state...... — a nanofiber based light-atom interface. Using a dual-frequency probing method we measure and prepare an ensemble with a sub-Poissonian atom number distribution. This is a first step towards the implementation of more exotic quantum states....

Standard cell-based implementation of a digital optoelectronic neural-network hardware.

Science.gov (United States)

Maier, K D; Beckstein, C; Blickhan, R; Erhard, W

2001-03-10

A standard cell-based implementation of a digital optoelectronic neural-network architecture is presented. The overall structure of the multilayer perceptron network that was used, the optoelectronic interconnection system between the layers, and all components required in each layer are defined. The design process from VHDL-based modeling from synthesis and partly automatic placing and routing to the final editing of one layer of the circuit of the multilayer perceptrons are described. A suitable approach for the standard cell-based design of optoelectronic systems is presented, and shortcomings of the design tool that was used are pointed out. The layout for the microelectronic circuit of one layer in a multilayer perceptron neural network with a performance potential 1 magnitude higher than neural networks that are purely electronic based has been successfully designed.

A novel hybrid ensemble learning paradigm for nuclear energy consumption forecasting

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tang, Ling; Yu, Lean; Wang, Shuai; Li, Jianping; Wang, Shouyang

2012-01-01

Highlights: ► A hybrid ensemble learning paradigm integrating EEMD and LSSVR is proposed. ► The hybrid ensemble method is useful to predict time series with high volatility. ► The ensemble method can be used for both one-step and multi-step ahead forecasting. - Abstract: In this paper, a novel hybrid ensemble learning paradigm integrating ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD) and least squares support vector regression (LSSVR) is proposed for nuclear energy consumption forecasting, based on the principle of “decomposition and ensemble”. This hybrid ensemble learning paradigm is formulated specifically to address difficulties in modeling nuclear energy consumption, which has inherently high volatility, complexity and irregularity. In the proposed hybrid ensemble learning paradigm, EEMD, as a competitive decomposition method, is first applied to decompose original data of nuclear energy consumption (i.e. a difficult task) into a number of independent intrinsic mode functions (IMFs) of original data (i.e. some relatively easy subtasks). Then LSSVR, as a powerful forecasting tool, is implemented to predict all extracted IMFs independently. Finally, these predicted IMFs are aggregated into an ensemble result as final prediction, using another LSSVR. For illustration and verification purposes, the proposed learning paradigm is used to predict nuclear energy consumption in China. Empirical results demonstrate that the novel hybrid ensemble learning paradigm can outperform some other popular forecasting models in both level prediction and directional forecasting, indicating that it is a promising tool to predict complex time series with high volatility and irregularity.

The semantic similarity ensemble

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Andrea Ballatore

2013-12-01

Full Text Available Computational measures of semantic similarity between geographic terms provide valuable support across geographic information retrieval, data mining, and information integration. To date, a wide variety of approaches to geo-semantic similarity have been devised. A judgment of similarity is not intrinsically right or wrong, but obtains a certain degree of cognitive plausibility, depending on how closely it mimics human behavior. Thus selecting the most appropriate measure for a specific task is a significant challenge. To address this issue, we make an analogy between computational similarity measures and soliciting domain expert opinions, which incorporate a subjective set of beliefs, perceptions, hypotheses, and epistemic biases. Following this analogy, we define the semantic similarity ensemble (SSE as a composition of different similarity measures, acting as a panel of experts having to reach a decision on the semantic similarity of a set of geographic terms. The approach is evaluated in comparison to human judgments, and results indicate that an SSE performs better than the average of its parts. Although the best member tends to outperform the ensemble, all ensembles outperform the average performance of each ensemble's member. Hence, in contexts where the best measure is unknown, the ensemble provides a more cognitively plausible approach.

Assessing a robust ensemble-based Kalman filter for efficient ecosystem data assimilation of the Cretan Sea

KAUST Repository

Triantafyllou, George N.; Hoteit, Ibrahim; Luo, Xiaodong; Tsiaras, Kostas P.; Petihakis, George

2013-01-01

An application of an ensemble-based robust filter for data assimilation into an ecosystem model of the Cretan Sea is presented and discussed. The ecosystem model comprises two on-line coupled sub-models: the Princeton Ocean Model (POM) and the European Regional Seas Ecosystem Model (ERSEM). The filtering scheme is based on the Singular Evolutive Interpolated Kalman (SEIK) filter which is implemented with a time-local H∞ filtering strategy to enhance robustness and performances during periods of strong ecosystem variability. Assimilation experiments in the Cretan Sea indicate that robustness can be achieved in the SEIK filter by introducing an adaptive inflation scheme of the modes of the filter error covariance matrix. Twin-experiments are performed to evaluate the performance of the assimilation system and to study the benefits of using robust filtering in an ensemble filtering framework. Pseudo-observations of surface chlorophyll, extracted from a model reference run, were assimilated every two days. Simulation results suggest that the adaptive inflation scheme significantly improves the behavior of the SEIK filter during periods of strong ecosystem variability. © 2012 Elsevier B.V.

Assessing a robust ensemble-based Kalman filter for efficient ecosystem data assimilation of the Cretan Sea

KAUST Repository

Triantafyllou, George N.

2013-09-01

An application of an ensemble-based robust filter for data assimilation into an ecosystem model of the Cretan Sea is presented and discussed. The ecosystem model comprises two on-line coupled sub-models: the Princeton Ocean Model (POM) and the European Regional Seas Ecosystem Model (ERSEM). The filtering scheme is based on the Singular Evolutive Interpolated Kalman (SEIK) filter which is implemented with a time-local H∞ filtering strategy to enhance robustness and performances during periods of strong ecosystem variability. Assimilation experiments in the Cretan Sea indicate that robustness can be achieved in the SEIK filter by introducing an adaptive inflation scheme of the modes of the filter error covariance matrix. Twin-experiments are performed to evaluate the performance of the assimilation system and to study the benefits of using robust filtering in an ensemble filtering framework. Pseudo-observations of surface chlorophyll, extracted from a model reference run, were assimilated every two days. Simulation results suggest that the adaptive inflation scheme significantly improves the behavior of the SEIK filter during periods of strong ecosystem variability. © 2012 Elsevier B.V.

Enhanced Neural Cell Adhesion and Neurite Outgrowth on Graphene-Based Biomimetic Substrates

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Suck Won Hong

2014-01-01

Full Text Available Neural cell adhesion and neurite outgrowth were examined on graphene-based biomimetic substrates. The biocompatibility of carbon nanomaterials such as graphene and carbon nanotubes (CNTs, that is, single-walled and multiwalled CNTs, against pheochromocytoma-derived PC-12 neural cells was also evaluated by quantifying metabolic activity (with WST-8 assay, intracellular oxidative stress (with ROS assay, and membrane integrity (with LDH assay. Graphene films were grown by using chemical vapor deposition and were then coated onto glass coverslips by using the scooping method. Graphene sheets were patterned on SiO2/Si substrates by using photolithography and were then covered with serum for a neural cell culture. Both types of CNTs induced significant dose-dependent decreases in the viability of PC-12 cells, whereas graphene exerted adverse effects on the neural cells just at over 62.5 ppm. This result implies that graphene and CNTs, even though they were the same carbon-based nanomaterials, show differential influences on neural cells. Furthermore, graphene-coated or graphene-patterned substrates were shown to substantially enhance the adhesion and neurite outgrowth of PC-12 cells. These results suggest that graphene-based substrates as biomimetic cues have good biocompatibility as well as a unique surface property that can enhance the neural cells, which would open up enormous opportunities in neural regeneration and nanomedicine.

Quantum ensembles of quantum classifiers.

Science.gov (United States)

Schuld, Maria; Petruccione, Francesco

2018-02-09

Quantum machine learning witnesses an increasing amount of quantum algorithms for data-driven decision making, a problem with potential applications ranging from automated image recognition to medical diagnosis. Many of those algorithms are implementations of quantum classifiers, or models for the classification of data inputs with a quantum computer. Following the success of collective decision making with ensembles in classical machine learning, this paper introduces the concept of quantum ensembles of quantum classifiers. Creating the ensemble corresponds to a state preparation routine, after which the quantum classifiers are evaluated in parallel and their combined decision is accessed by a single-qubit measurement. This framework naturally allows for exponentially large ensembles in which - similar to Bayesian learning - the individual classifiers do not have to be trained. As an example, we analyse an exponentially large quantum ensemble in which each classifier is weighed according to its performance in classifying the training data, leading to new results for quantum as well as classical machine learning.

Fidelity estimation between two finite ensembles of unknown pure equatorial qubit states

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Siomau, Michael, E-mail: siomau@physi.uni-heidelberg.de [Physikalisches Institut, Heidelberg Universitaet, D-69120 Heidelberg (Germany); Department of Theoretical Physics, Belarussian State University, 220030 Minsk (Belarus)

2011-09-05

Suppose, we are given two finite ensembles of pure qubit states, so that the qubits in each ensemble are prepared in identical (but unknown for us) states lying on the equator of the Bloch sphere. What is the best strategy to estimate fidelity between these two finite ensembles of qubit states? We discuss three possible strategies for the fidelity estimation. We show that the best strategy includes two stages: a specific unitary transformation on two ensembles and state estimation of the output states of this transformation. -- Highlights: → We search for the best strategy for the fidelity estimation. → A measurement-based, a cloning-based and a unified strategies are considered. → The last strategy includes a specific unitary transformation and state estimation. → The unified strategy is shown to be the best among the three.

Multimodel GCM-RCM Ensemble-Based Projections of Temperature and Precipitation over West Africa for the Early 21st Century

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

I. Diallo

2012-01-01

Full Text Available Reliable climate change scenarios are critical for West Africa, whose economy relies mostly on agriculture and, in this regard, multimodel ensembles are believed to provide the most robust climate change information. Toward this end, we analyze and intercompare the performance of a set of four regional climate models (RCMs driven by two global climate models (GCMs (for a total of 4 different GCM-RCM pairs in simulating present day and future climate over West Africa. The results show that the individual RCM members as well as their ensemble employing the same driving fields exhibit different biases and show mixed results in terms of outperforming the GCM simulation of seasonal temperature and precipitation, indicating a substantial sensitivity of RCMs to regional and local processes. These biases are reduced and GCM simulations improved upon by averaging all four RCM simulations, suggesting that multi-model RCM ensembles based on different driving GCMs help to compensate systematic errors from both the nested and the driving models. This confirms the importance of the multi-model approach for improving robustness of climate change projections. Illustrative examples of such ensemble reveal that the western Sahel undergoes substantial drying in future climate projections mostly due to a decrease in peak monsoon rainfall.

Improving wave forecasting by integrating ensemble modelling and machine learning

Science.gov (United States)

O'Donncha, F.; Zhang, Y.; James, S. C.

2017-12-01

Modern smart-grid networks use technologies to instantly relay information on supply and demand to support effective decision making. Integration of renewable-energy resources with these systems demands accurate forecasting of energy production (and demand) capacities. For wave-energy converters, this requires wave-condition forecasting to enable estimates of energy production. Current operational wave forecasting systems exhibit substantial errors with wave-height RMSEs of 40 to 60 cm being typical, which limits the reliability of energy-generation predictions thereby impeding integration with the distribution grid. In this study, we integrate physics-based models with statistical learning aggregation techniques that combine forecasts from multiple, independent models into a single "best-estimate" prediction of the true state. The Simulating Waves Nearshore physics-based model is used to compute wind- and currents-augmented waves in the Monterey Bay area. Ensembles are developed based on multiple simulations perturbing input data (wave characteristics supplied at the model boundaries and winds) to the model. A learning-aggregation technique uses past observations and past model forecasts to calculate a weight for each model. The aggregated forecasts are compared to observation data to quantify the performance of the model ensemble and aggregation techniques. The appropriately weighted ensemble model outperforms an individual ensemble member with regard to forecasting wave conditions.

Generalized versus non-generalized neural network model for multi-lead inflow forecasting at Aswan High Dam

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A. El-Shafie

2011-03-01

Full Text Available Artificial neural networks (ANN have been found efficient, particularly in problems where characteristics of the processes are stochastic and difficult to describe using explicit mathematical models. However, time series prediction based on ANN algorithms is fundamentally difficult and faces problems. One of the major shortcomings is the search for the optimal input pattern in order to enhance the forecasting capabilities for the output. The second challenge is the over-fitting problem during the training procedure and this occurs when ANN loses its generalization. In this research, autocorrelation and cross correlation analyses are suggested as a method for searching the optimal input pattern. On the other hand, two generalized methods namely, Regularized Neural Network (RNN and Ensemble Neural Network (ENN models are developed to overcome the drawbacks of classical ANN models. Using Generalized Neural Network (GNN helped avoid over-fitting of training data which was observed as a limitation of classical ANN models. Real inflow data collected over the last 130 years at Lake Nasser was used to train, test and validate the proposed model. Results show that the proposed GNN model outperforms non-generalized neural network and conventional auto-regressive models and it could provide accurate inflow forecasting.

Information in small neuronal ensemble activity in the hippocampal CA1 during delayed non-matching to sample performance in rats

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Takahashi Susumu

2009-09-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background The matrix-like organization of the hippocampus, with its several inputs and outputs, has given rise to several theories related to hippocampal information processing. Single-cell electrophysiological studies and studies of lesions or genetically altered animals using recognition memory tasks such as delayed non-matching-to-sample (DNMS tasks support the theories. However, a complete understanding of hippocampal function necessitates knowledge of the encoding of information by multiple neurons in a single trial. The role of neuronal ensembles in the hippocampal CA1 for a DNMS task was assessed quantitatively in this study using multi-neuronal recordings and an artificial neural network classifier as a decoder. Results The activity of small neuronal ensembles (6-18 cells over brief time intervals (2-50 ms contains accurate information specifically related to the matching/non-matching of continuously presented stimuli (stimulus comparison. The accuracy of the combination of neurons pooled over all the ensembles was markedly lower than those of the ensembles over all examined time intervals. Conclusion The results show that the spatiotemporal patterns of spiking activity among cells in the small neuronal ensemble contain much information that is specifically useful for the stimulus comparison. Small neuronal networks in the hippocampal CA1 might therefore act as a comparator during recognition memory tasks.

Automated implementation of rule-based expert systems with neural networks for time-critical applications

Science.gov (United States)

Ramamoorthy, P. A.; Huang, Song; Govind, Girish

1991-01-01

In fault diagnosis, control and real-time monitoring, both timing and accuracy are critical for operators or machines to reach proper solutions or appropriate actions. Expert systems are becoming more popular in the manufacturing community for dealing with such problems. In recent years, neural networks have revived and their applications have spread to many areas of science and engineering. A method of using neural networks to implement rule-based expert systems for time-critical applications is discussed here. This method can convert a given rule-based system into a neural network with fixed weights and thresholds. The rules governing the translation are presented along with some examples. We also present the results of automated machine implementation of such networks from the given rule-base. This significantly simplifies the translation process to neural network expert systems from conventional rule-based systems. Results comparing the performance of the proposed approach based on neural networks vs. the classical approach are given. The possibility of very large scale integration (VLSI) realization of such neural network expert systems is also discussed.

Design of Artificial Neural Network-Based pH Estimator

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Shebel A. Alsabbah

2010-10-01

Full Text Available Taking into consideration the cost, size and drawbacks might be found with real hardware instrument for measuring pH values such that the complications of the wiring, installing, calibrating and troubleshooting the system, would make a person look for a cheaper, accurate, and alternative choice to perform the measuring operation, Where’s hereby, a feedforward artificial neural network-based pH estimator has to be proposed. The proposed estimator has been designed with multi- layer perceptrons. One input which is a measured base stream and two outputs represent pH values at strong base and strong/weak acids for a titration process. The created data base has been obtained with consideration of temperature variation. The final numerical results ensure the effectiveness and robustness of the design neural network-based pH estimator.

Iris double recognition based on modified evolutionary neural network

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, Shuai; Liu, Yuan-Ning; Zhu, Xiao-Dong; Huo, Guang; Liu, Wen-Tao; Feng, Jia-Kai

2017-11-01

Aiming at multicategory iris recognition under illumination and noise interference, this paper proposes a method of iris double recognition based on a modified evolutionary neural network. An equalization histogram and Laplace of Gaussian operator are used to process the iris to suppress illumination and noise interference and Haar wavelet to convert the iris feature to binary feature encoding. Calculate the Hamming distance for the test iris and template iris , and compare with classification threshold, determine the type of iris. If the iris cannot be identified as a different type, there needs to be a secondary recognition. The connection weights in back-propagation (BP) neural network use modified evolutionary neural network to adaptively train. The modified neural network is composed of particle swarm optimization with mutation operator and BP neural network. According to different iris libraries in different circumstances of experimental results, under illumination and noise interference, the correct recognition rate of this algorithm is higher, the ROC curve is closer to the coordinate axis, the training and recognition time is shorter, and the stability and the robustness are better.

Time-dependent generalized Gibbs ensembles in open quantum systems

Science.gov (United States)

Lange, Florian; Lenarčič, Zala; Rosch, Achim

2018-04-01

Generalized Gibbs ensembles have been used as powerful tools to describe the steady state of integrable many-particle quantum systems after a sudden change of the Hamiltonian. Here, we demonstrate numerically that they can be used for a much broader class of problems. We consider integrable systems in the presence of weak perturbations which break both integrability and drive the system to a state far from equilibrium. Under these conditions, we show that the steady state and the time evolution on long timescales can be accurately described by a (truncated) generalized Gibbs ensemble with time-dependent Lagrange parameters, determined from simple rate equations. We compare the numerically exact time evolutions of density matrices for small systems with a theory based on block-diagonal density matrices (diagonal ensemble) and a time-dependent generalized Gibbs ensemble containing only a small number of approximately conserved quantities, using the one-dimensional Heisenberg model with perturbations described by Lindblad operators as an example.

Unfolding code for neutron spectrometry based on neural nets technology

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Ortiz R, J. M.; Vega C, H. R., E-mail: morvymm@yahoo.com.mx [Universidad Autonoma de Zacatecas, Unidad Academica de Ingenieria Electrica, Apdo. Postal 336, 98000 Zacatecas (Mexico)

2012-10-15

The most delicate part of neutron spectrometry, is the unfolding process. The derivation of the spectral information is not simple because the unknown is not given directly as a result of the measurements. The drawbacks associated with traditional unfolding procedures have motivated the need of complementary approaches. Novel methods based on Artificial Neural Networks have been widely investigated. In this work, a neutron spectrum unfolding code based on neural nets technology is presented. This unfolding code called Neutron Spectrometry and Dosimetry by means of Artificial Neural Networks was designed in a graphical interface under LabVIEW programming environment. The core of the code is an embedded neural network architecture, previously optimized by the {sup R}obust Design of Artificial Neural Networks Methodology{sup .} The main features of the code are: is easy to use, friendly and intuitive to the user. This code was designed for a Bonner Sphere System based on a {sup 6}Lil(Eu) neutron detector and a response matrix expressed in 60 energy bins taken from an International Atomic Energy Agency compilation. The main feature of the code is that as entrance data, only seven rate counts measurement with a Bonner spheres spectrometer are required for simultaneously unfold the 60 energy bins of the neutron spectrum and to calculate 15 dosimetric quantities, for radiation protection porpoises. This code generates a full report in html format with all relevant information. (Author)

Neural Representation. A Survey-Based Analysis of the Notion

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Oscar Vilarroya

2017-08-01

Full Text Available The word representation (as in “neural representation”, and many of its related terms, such as to represent, representational and the like, play a central explanatory role in neuroscience literature. For instance, in “place cell” literature, place cells are extensively associated with their role in “the representation of space.” In spite of its extended use, we still lack a clear, universal and widely accepted view on what it means for a nervous system to represent something, on what makes a neural activity a representation, and on what is re-presented. The lack of a theoretical foundation and definition of the notion has not hindered actual research. My aim here is to identify how active scientists use the notion of neural representation, and eventually to list a set of criteria, based on actual use, that can help in distinguishing between genuine or non-genuine neural-representation candidates. In order to attain this objective, I present first the results of a survey of authors within two domains, place-cell and multivariate pattern analysis (MVPA research. Based on the authors’ replies, and on a review of neuroscientific research, I outline a set of common properties that an account of neural representation seems to require. I then apply these properties to assess the use of the notion in two domains of the survey, place-cell and MVPA studies. I conclude by exploring a shift in the notion of representation suggested by recent literature.

An ensemble prediction approach to weekly Dengue cases forecasting based on climatic and terrain conditions

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Sougata Deb

2017-11-01

Full Text Available Introduction: Dengue fever has been one of the most concerning endemic diseases of recent times. Every year, 50-100 million people get infected by the dengue virus across the world. Historically, it has been most prevalent in Southeast Asia and the Pacific Islands. In recent years, frequent dengue epidemics have started occurring in Latin America as well. This study focused on assessing the impact of different short and long-term lagged climatic predictors on dengue cases. Additionally, it assessed the impact of building an ensemble model using multiple time series and regression models, in improving prediction accuracy. Materials and Methods: Experimental data were based on two Latin American cities, viz. San Juan (Puerto Rico and Iquitos (Peru. Due to weather and geographic differences, San Juan recorded higher dengue incidences than Iquitos. Using lagged cross-correlations, this study confirmed the impact of temperature and vegetation on the number of dengue cases for both cities, though in varied degrees and time lags. An ensemble of multiple predictive models using an elaborate set of derived predictors was built and validated. Results: The proposed ensemble prediction achieved a mean absolute error of 21.55, 4.26 points lower than the 25.81 obtained by a standard negative binomial model. Changes in climatic conditions and urbanization were found to be strong predictors as established empirically in other researches. Some of the predictors were new and informative, which have not been explored in any other relevant studies yet. Discussion and Conclusions: Two original contributions were made in this research. Firstly, a focused and extensive feature engineering aligned with the mosquito lifecycle. Secondly, a novel covariate pattern-matching based prediction approach using past time series trend of the predictor variables. Increased accuracy of the proposed model over the benchmark model proved the appropriateness of the analytical approach

Musical ensembles in Ancient Mesapotamia

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Krispijn, T.J.H.; Dumbrill, R.; Finkel, I.

2010-01-01

Identification of musical instruments from ancient Mesopotamia by comparing musical ensembles attested in Sumerian and Akkadian texts with depicted ensembles. Lexicographical contributions to the Sumerian and Akkadian lexicon.

Conservation of Mass and Preservation of Positivity with Ensemble-Type Kalman Filter Algorithms

Science.gov (United States)

Janjic, Tijana; Mclaughlin, Dennis; Cohn, Stephen E.; Verlaan, Martin

2014-01-01

This paper considers the incorporation of constraints to enforce physically based conservation laws in the ensemble Kalman filter. In particular, constraints are used to ensure that the ensemble members and the ensemble mean conserve mass and remain nonnegative through measurement updates. In certain situations filtering algorithms such as the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) and ensemble transform Kalman filter (ETKF) yield updated ensembles that conserve mass but are negative, even though the actual states must be nonnegative. In such situations if negative values are set to zero, or a log transform is introduced, the total mass will not be conserved. In this study, mass and positivity are both preserved by formulating the filter update as a set of quadratic programming problems that incorporate non-negativity constraints. Simple numerical experiments indicate that this approach can have a significant positive impact on the posterior ensemble distribution, giving results that are more physically plausible both for individual ensemble members and for the ensemble mean. In two examples, an update that includes a non-negativity constraint is able to properly describe the transport of a sharp feature (e.g., a triangle or cone). A number of implementation questions still need to be addressed, particularly the need to develop a computationally efficient quadratic programming update for large ensemble.

PSO-Ensemble Demo Application

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

2004-01-01

Within the framework of the PSO-Ensemble project (FU2101) a demo application has been created. The application use ECMWF ensemble forecasts. Two instances of the application are running; one for Nysted Offshore and one for the total production (except Horns Rev) in the Eltra area. The output...

Multilevel ensemble Kalman filter

KAUST Repository

Chernov, Alexey; Hoel, Haakon; Law, Kody; Nobile, Fabio; Tempone, Raul

2016-01-01

This work embeds a multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) sampling strategy into the Monte Carlo step of the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF). In terms of computational cost vs. approximation error the asymptotic performance of the multilevel ensemble Kalman filter (MLEnKF) is superior to the EnKF s.

Multilevel ensemble Kalman filter

KAUST Repository

Chernov, Alexey

2016-01-06

This work embeds a multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) sampling strategy into the Monte Carlo step of the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF). In terms of computational cost vs. approximation error the asymptotic performance of the multilevel ensemble Kalman filter (MLEnKF) is superior to the EnKF s.

Multi-Model Ensemble Wake Vortex Prediction

Science.gov (United States)

Koerner, Stephan; Holzaepfel, Frank; Ahmad, Nash'at N.

2015-01-01

Several multi-model ensemble methods are investigated for predicting wake vortex transport and decay. This study is a joint effort between National Aeronautics and Space Administration and Deutsches Zentrum fuer Luft- und Raumfahrt to develop a multi-model ensemble capability using their wake models. An overview of different multi-model ensemble methods and their feasibility for wake applications is presented. The methods include Reliability Ensemble Averaging, Bayesian Model Averaging, and Monte Carlo Simulations. The methodologies are evaluated using data from wake vortex field experiments.

A Markovian event-based framework for stochastic spiking neural networks.

Science.gov (United States)

Touboul, Jonathan D; Faugeras, Olivier D

2011-11-01

In spiking neural networks, the information is conveyed by the spike times, that depend on the intrinsic dynamics of each neuron, the input they receive and on the connections between neurons. In this article we study the Markovian nature of the sequence of spike times in stochastic neural networks, and in particular the ability to deduce from a spike train the next spike time, and therefore produce a description of the network activity only based on the spike times regardless of the membrane potential process. To study this question in a rigorous manner, we introduce and study an event-based description of networks of noisy integrate-and-fire neurons, i.e. that is based on the computation of the spike times. We show that the firing times of the neurons in the networks constitute a Markov chain, whose transition probability is related to the probability distribution of the interspike interval of the neurons in the network. In the cases where the Markovian model can be developed, the transition probability is explicitly derived in such classical cases of neural networks as the linear integrate-and-fire neuron models with excitatory and inhibitory interactions, for different types of synapses, possibly featuring noisy synaptic integration, transmission delays and absolute and relative refractory period. This covers most of the cases that have been investigated in the event-based description of spiking deterministic neural networks.

Assessment of robustness and significance of climate change signals for an ensemble of distribution-based scaled climate projections

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Seaby, Lauren Paige; Refsgaard, J.C.; Sonnenborg, T.O.

2013-01-01

An ensemble of 11 regional climate model (RCM) projections are analysed for Denmark from a hydrological modelling inputs perspective. Two bias correction approaches are applied: a relatively simple monthly delta change (DC) method and a more complex daily distribution-based scaling (DBS) method...

Deep neural network convolution (NNC) for three-class classification of diffuse lung disease opacities in high-resolution CT (HRCT): consolidation, ground-glass opacity (GGO), and normal opacity

Science.gov (United States)

Hashimoto, Noriaki; Suzuki, Kenji; Liu, Junchi; Hirano, Yasushi; MacMahon, Heber; Kido, Shoji

2018-02-01

Consolidation and ground-glass opacity (GGO) are two major types of opacities associated with diffuse lung diseases. Accurate detection and classification of such opacities are crucially important in the diagnosis of lung diseases, but the process is subjective, and suffers from interobserver variability. Our study purpose was to develop a deep neural network convolution (NNC) system for distinguishing among consolidation, GGO, and normal lung tissue in high-resolution CT (HRCT). We developed ensemble of two deep NNC models, each of which was composed of neural network regression (NNR) with an input layer, a convolution layer, a fully-connected hidden layer, and a fully-connected output layer followed by a thresholding layer. The output layer of each NNC provided a map for the likelihood of being each corresponding lung opacity of interest. The two NNC models in the ensemble were connected in a class-selection layer. We trained our NNC ensemble with pairs of input 2D axial slices and "teaching" probability maps for the corresponding lung opacity, which were obtained by combining three radiologists' annotations. We randomly selected 10 and 40 slices from HRCT scans of 172 patients for each class as a training and test set, respectively. Our NNC ensemble achieved an area under the receiver-operating-characteristic (ROC) curve (AUC) of 0.981 and 0.958 in distinction of consolidation and GGO, respectively, from normal opacity, yielding a classification accuracy of 93.3% among 3 classes. Thus, our deep-NNC-based system for classifying diffuse lung diseases achieved high accuracies for classification of consolidation, GGO, and normal opacity.

Three-dimensional visualization of ensemble weather forecasts – Part 2: Forecasting warm conveyor belt situations for aircraft-based field campaigns

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

M. Rautenhaus

2015-07-01

Full Text Available We present the application of interactive three-dimensional (3-D visualization of ensemble weather predictions to forecasting warm conveyor belt situations during aircraft-based atmospheric research campaigns. Motivated by forecast requirements of the T-NAWDEX-Falcon 2012 (THORPEX – North Atlantic Waveguide and Downstream Impact Experiment campaign, a method to predict 3-D probabilities of the spatial occurrence of warm conveyor belts (WCBs has been developed. Probabilities are derived from Lagrangian particle trajectories computed on the forecast wind fields of the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF ensemble prediction system. Integration of the method into the 3-D ensemble visualization tool Met.3D, introduced in the first part of this study, facilitates interactive visualization of WCB features and derived probabilities in the context of the ECMWF ensemble forecast. We investigate the sensitivity of the method with respect to trajectory seeding and grid spacing of the forecast wind field. Furthermore, we propose a visual analysis method to quantitatively analyse the contribution of ensemble members to a probability region and, thus, to assist the forecaster in interpreting the obtained probabilities. A case study, revisiting a forecast case from T-NAWDEX-Falcon, illustrates the practical application of Met.3D and demonstrates the use of 3-D and uncertainty visualization for weather forecasting and for planning flight routes in the medium forecast range (3 to 7 days before take-off.

A Hierarchical Method for Transient Stability Prediction of Power Systems Using the Confidence of a SVM-Based Ensemble Classifier

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Yanzhen Zhou

2016-09-01

Full Text Available Machine learning techniques have been widely used in transient stability prediction of power systems. When using the post-fault dynamic responses, it is difficult to draw a definite conclusion about how long the duration of response data used should be in order to balance the accuracy and speed. Besides, previous studies have the problem of lacking consideration for the confidence level. To solve these problems, a hierarchical method for transient stability prediction based on the confidence of ensemble classifier using multiple support vector machines (SVMs is proposed. Firstly, multiple datasets are generated by bootstrap sampling, then features are randomly picked up to compress the datasets. Secondly, the confidence indices are defined and multiple SVMs are built based on these generated datasets. By synthesizing the probabilistic outputs of multiple SVMs, the prediction results and confidence of the ensemble classifier will be obtained. Finally, different ensemble classifiers with different response times are built to construct different layers of the proposed hierarchical scheme. The simulation results show that the proposed hierarchical method can balance the accuracy and rapidity of the transient stability prediction. Moreover, the hierarchical method can reduce the misjudgments of unstable instances and cooperate with the time domain simulation to insure the security and stability of power systems.

Single-particle model of a strongly driven, dense, nanoscale quantum ensemble

Science.gov (United States)

DiLoreto, C. S.; Rangan, C.

2018-01-01

We study the effects of interatomic interactions on the quantum dynamics of a dense, nanoscale, atomic ensemble driven by a strong electromagnetic field. We use a self-consistent, mean-field technique based on the pseudospectral time-domain method and a full, three-directional basis to solve the coupled Maxwell-Liouville equations. We find that interatomic interactions generate a decoherence in the state of an ensemble on a much faster time scale than the excited-state lifetime of individual atoms. We present a single-particle model of the driven, dense ensemble by incorporating interactions into a dephasing rate. This single-particle model reproduces the essential physics of the full simulation and is an efficient way of rapidly estimating the collective dynamics of a dense ensemble.

Ensemble stacking mitigates biases in inference of synaptic connectivity

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Brendan Chambers

2018-03-01

Full Text Available A promising alternative to directly measuring the anatomical connections in a neuronal population is inferring the connections from the activity. We employ simulated spiking neuronal networks to compare and contrast commonly used inference methods that identify likely excitatory synaptic connections using statistical regularities in spike timing. We find that simple adjustments to standard algorithms improve inference accuracy: A signing procedure improves the power of unsigned mutual-information-based approaches and a correction that accounts for differences in mean and variance of background timing relationships, such as those expected to be induced by heterogeneous firing rates, increases the sensitivity of frequency-based methods. We also find that different inference methods reveal distinct subsets of the synaptic network and each method exhibits different biases in the accurate detection of reciprocity and local clustering. To correct for errors and biases specific to single inference algorithms, we combine methods into an ensemble. Ensemble predictions, generated as a linear combination of multiple inference algorithms, are more sensitive than the best individual measures alone, and are more faithful to ground-truth statistics of connectivity, mitigating biases specific to single inference methods. These weightings generalize across simulated datasets, emphasizing the potential for the broad utility of ensemble-based approaches. Mapping the routing of spikes through local circuitry is crucial for understanding neocortical computation. Under appropriate experimental conditions, these maps can be used to infer likely patterns of synaptic recruitment, linking activity to underlying anatomical connections. Such inferences help to reveal the synaptic implementation of population dynamics and computation. We compare a number of standard functional measures to infer underlying connectivity. We find that regularization impacts measures

Model dependence and its effect on ensemble projections in CMIP5

Science.gov (United States)

Abramowitz, G.; Bishop, C.

2013-12-01

Conceptually, the notion of model dependence within climate model ensembles is relatively simple - modelling groups share a literature base, parametrisations, data sets and even model code - the potential for dependence in sampling different climate futures is clear. How though can this conceptual problem inform a practical solution that demonstrably improves the ensemble mean and ensemble variance as an estimate of system uncertainty? While some research has already focused on error correlation or error covariance as a candidate to improve ensemble mean estimates, a complete definition of independence must at least implicitly subscribe to an ensemble interpretation paradigm, such as the 'truth-plus-error', 'indistinguishable', or more recently 'replicate Earth' paradigm. Using a definition of model dependence based on error covariance within the replicate Earth paradigm, this presentation will show that accounting for dependence in surface air temperature gives cooler projections in CMIP5 - by as much as 20% globally in some RCPs - although results differ significantly for each RCP, especially regionally. The fact that the change afforded by accounting for dependence across different RCPs is different is not an inconsistent result. Different numbers of submissions to each RCP by different modelling groups mean that differences in projections from different RCPs are not entirely about RCP forcing conditions - they also reflect different sampling strategies.

Noodles: a tool for visualization of numerical weather model ensemble uncertainty.

Science.gov (United States)

Sanyal, Jibonananda; Zhang, Song; Dyer, Jamie; Mercer, Andrew; Amburn, Philip; Moorhead, Robert J

2010-01-01

Numerical weather prediction ensembles are routinely used for operational weather forecasting. The members of these ensembles are individual simulations with either slightly perturbed initial conditions or different model parameterizations, or occasionally both. Multi-member ensemble output is usually large, multivariate, and challenging to interpret interactively. Forecast meteorologists are interested in understanding the uncertainties associated with numerical weather prediction; specifically variability between the ensemble members. Currently, visualization of ensemble members is mostly accomplished through spaghetti plots of a single mid-troposphere pressure surface height contour. In order to explore new uncertainty visualization methods, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model was used to create a 48-hour, 18 member parameterization ensemble of the 13 March 1993 "Superstorm". A tool was designed to interactively explore the ensemble uncertainty of three important weather variables: water-vapor mixing ratio, perturbation potential temperature, and perturbation pressure. Uncertainty was quantified using individual ensemble member standard deviation, inter-quartile range, and the width of the 95% confidence interval. Bootstrapping was employed to overcome the dependence on normality in the uncertainty metrics. A coordinated view of ribbon and glyph-based uncertainty visualization, spaghetti plots, iso-pressure colormaps, and data transect plots was provided to two meteorologists for expert evaluation. They found it useful in assessing uncertainty in the data, especially in finding outliers in the ensemble run and therefore avoiding the WRF parameterizations that lead to these outliers. Additionally, the meteorologists could identify spatial regions where the uncertainty was significantly high, allowing for identification of poorly simulated storm environments and physical interpretation of these model issues.

Application of NARR-based NLDAS Ensemble Simulations to Continental-Scale Drought Monitoring

Science.gov (United States)

Alonge, C. J.; Cosgrove, B. A.

2008-05-01

Government estimates indicate that droughts cause billions of dollars of damage to agricultural interests each year. More effective identification of droughts would directly benefit decision makers, and would allow for the more efficient allocation of resources that might mitigate the event. Land data assimilation systems, with their high quality representations of soil moisture, present an ideal platform for drought monitoring, and offer many advantages over traditional modeling systems. The recently released North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR) covers the NLDAS domain and provides all fields necessary to force the NLDAS for 27 years. This presents an ideal opportunity to combine NARR and NLDAS resources into an effective real-time drought monitor. Toward this end, our project seeks to validate and explore the NARR's suitability as a base for drought monitoring applications - both in terms of data set length and accuracy. Along the same lines, the project will examine the impact of the use of different (longer) LDAS model climatologies on drought monitoring, and will explore the advantages of ensemble simulations versus single model simulations in drought monitoring activities. We also plan to produce a NARR- and observation-based high quality 27 year, 1/8th degree, 3-hourly, land surface and meteorological forcing data sets. An investigation of the best way to force an LDAS-type system will also be made, with traditional NLDAS and NLDASE forcing options explored. This presentation will focus on an overview of the drought monitoring project, and will include a summary of recent progress. Developments include the generation of forcing data sets, ensemble LSM output, and production of model-based drought indices over the entire NLDAS domain. Project forcing files use 32km NARR model output as a data backbone, and include observed precipitation (blended CPC gauge, PRISM gauge, Stage II, HPD, and CMORPH) and a GOES-based bias correction of downward solar

Adaptive Synchronization of Memristor-based Chaotic Neural Systems

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Xiaofang Hu

2014-11-01

Full Text Available Chaotic neural networks consisting of a great number of chaotic neurons are able to reproduce the rich dynamics observed in biological nervous systems. In recent years, the memristor has attracted much interest in the efficient implementation of artificial synapses and neurons. This work addresses adaptive synchronization of a class of memristor-based neural chaotic systems using a novel adaptive backstepping approach. A systematic design procedure is presented. Simulation results have demonstrated the effectiveness of the proposed adaptive synchronization method and its potential in practical application of memristive chaotic oscillators in secure communication.

Monthly ENSO Forecast Skill and Lagged Ensemble Size

Science.gov (United States)

Trenary, L.; DelSole, T.; Tippett, M. K.; Pegion, K.

2018-04-01

The mean square error (MSE) of a lagged ensemble of monthly forecasts of the Niño 3.4 index from the Climate Forecast System (CFSv2) is examined with respect to ensemble size and configuration. Although the real-time forecast is initialized 4 times per day, it is possible to infer the MSE for arbitrary initialization frequency and for burst ensembles by fitting error covariances to a parametric model and then extrapolating to arbitrary ensemble size and initialization frequency. Applying this method to real-time forecasts, we find that the MSE consistently reaches a minimum for a lagged ensemble size between one and eight days, when four initializations per day are included. This ensemble size is consistent with the 8-10 day lagged ensemble configuration used operationally. Interestingly, the skill of both ensemble configurations is close to the estimated skill of the infinite ensemble. The skill of the weighted, lagged, and burst ensembles are found to be comparable. Certain unphysical features of the estimated error growth were tracked down to problems with the climatology and data discontinuities.

Measures of coupling between neural populations based on Granger causality principle

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Maciej Kaminski

2016-10-01

Full Text Available This paper shortly reviews the measures used to estimate neural synchronization in experimental settings. Our focus is on multivariate measures of dependence based on the Granger causality (G-causality principle, their applications and performance in respect of robustness to noise, volume conduction, common driving, and presence of a weak node. Application of G-causality measures to EEG, intracranial signals and fMRI time series is addressed. G-causality based measures defined in the frequency domain allow the synchronization between neural populations and the directed propagation of their electrical activity to be determined. The time-varying G-causality based measure Short-time Directed Transfer Function (SDTF supplies information on the dynamics of synchronization and the organization of neural networks. Inspection of effective connectivity patterns indicates a modular structure of neural networks, with a stronger coupling within modules than between them. The hypothetical plausible mechanism of information processing, suggested by the identified synchronization patterns, is communication between tightly coupled modules intermitted by sparser interactions providing synchronization of distant structures.

Numeral eddy current sensor modelling based on genetic neural network

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yu Along

2008-01-01

This paper presents a method used to the numeral eddy current sensor modelling based on the genetic neural network to settle its nonlinear problem. The principle and algorithms of genetic neural network are introduced. In this method, the nonlinear model parameters of the numeral eddy current sensor are optimized by genetic neural network (GNN) according to measurement data. So the method remains both the global searching ability of genetic algorithm and the good local searching ability of neural network. The nonlinear model has the advantages of strong robustness, on-line modelling and high precision. The maximum nonlinearity error can be reduced to 0.037% by using GNN. However, the maximum nonlinearity error is 0.075% using the least square method

Object-Based Change Detection in Urban Areas from High Spatial Resolution Images Based on Multiple Features and Ensemble Learning

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Xin Wang

2018-02-01

Full Text Available To improve the accuracy of change detection in urban areas using bi-temporal high-resolution remote sensing images, a novel object-based change detection scheme combining multiple features and ensemble learning is proposed in this paper. Image segmentation is conducted to determine the objects in bi-temporal images separately. Subsequently, three kinds of object features, i.e., spectral, shape and texture, are extracted. Using the image differencing process, a difference image is generated and used as the input for nonlinear supervised classifiers, including k-nearest neighbor, support vector machine, extreme learning machine and random forest. Finally, the results of multiple classifiers are integrated using an ensemble rule called weighted voting to generate the final change detection result. Experimental results of two pairs of real high-resolution remote sensing datasets demonstrate that the proposed approach outperforms the traditional methods in terms of overall accuracy and generates change detection maps with a higher number of homogeneous regions in urban areas. Moreover, the influences of segmentation scale and the feature selection strategy on the change detection performance are also analyzed and discussed.

The neural correlates of gist-based true and false recognition

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Gutchess, Angela H.; Schacter, Daniel L.

2012-01-01

When information is thematically related to previously studied information, gist-based processes contribute to false recognition. Using functional MRI, we examined the neural correlates of gist-based recognition as a function of increasing numbers of studied exemplars. Sixteen participants incidentally encoded small, medium, and large sets of pictures, and we compared the neural response at recognition using parametric modulation analyses. For hits, regions in middle occipital, middle temporal, and posterior parietal cortex linearly modulated their activity according to the number of related encoded items. For false alarms, visual, parietal, and hippocampal regions were modulated as a function of the encoded set size. The present results are consistent with prior work in that the neural regions supporting veridical memory also contribute to false memory for related information. The results also reveal that these regions respond to the degree of relatedness among similar items, and implicate perceptual and constructive processes in gist-based false memory. PMID:22155331

A novel word spotting method based on recurrent neural networks.

Science.gov (United States)

Frinken, Volkmar; Fischer, Andreas; Manmatha, R; Bunke, Horst

2012-02-01

Keyword spotting refers to the process of retrieving all instances of a given keyword from a document. In the present paper, a novel keyword spotting method for handwritten documents is described. It is derived from a neural network-based system for unconstrained handwriting recognition. As such it performs template-free spotting, i.e., it is not necessary for a keyword to appear in the training set. The keyword spotting is done using a modification of the CTC Token Passing algorithm in conjunction with a recurrent neural network. We demonstrate that the proposed systems outperform not only a classical dynamic time warping-based approach but also a modern keyword spotting system, based on hidden Markov models. Furthermore, we analyze the performance of the underlying neural networks when using them in a recognition task followed by keyword spotting on the produced transcription. We point out the advantages of keyword spotting when compared to classic text line recognition.

Reward-based training of recurrent neural networks for cognitive and value-based tasks.

Science.gov (United States)

Song, H Francis; Yang, Guangyu R; Wang, Xiao-Jing

2017-01-13

Trained neural network models, which exhibit features of neural activity recorded from behaving animals, may provide insights into the circuit mechanisms of cognitive functions through systematic analysis of network activity and connectivity. However, in contrast to the graded error signals commonly used to train networks through supervised learning, animals learn from reward feedback on definite actions through reinforcement learning. Reward maximization is particularly relevant when optimal behavior depends on an animal's internal judgment of confidence or subjective preferences. Here, we implement reward-based training of recurrent neural networks in which a value network guides learning by using the activity of the decision network to predict future reward. We show that such models capture behavioral and electrophysiological findings from well-known experimental paradigms. Our work provides a unified framework for investigating diverse cognitive and value-based computations, and predicts a role for value representation that is essential for learning, but not executing, a task.

Knowledge base and neural network approach for protein secondary structure prediction.

Science.gov (United States)

Patel, Maulika S; Mazumdar, Himanshu S

2014-11-21

Protein structure prediction is of great relevance given the abundant genomic and proteomic data generated by the genome sequencing projects. Protein secondary structure prediction is addressed as a sub task in determining the protein tertiary structure and function. In this paper, a novel algorithm, KB-PROSSP-NN, which is a combination of knowledge base and modeling of the exceptions in the knowledge base using neural networks for protein secondary structure prediction (PSSP), is proposed. The knowledge base is derived from a proteomic sequence-structure database and consists of the statistics of association between the 5-residue words and corresponding secondary structure. The predicted results obtained using knowledge base are refined with a Backpropogation neural network algorithm. Neural net models the exceptions of the knowledge base. The Q3 accuracy of 90% and 82% is achieved on the RS126 and CB396 test sets respectively which suggest improvement over existing state of art methods. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Computational chaos in massively parallel neural networks

Science.gov (United States)

Barhen, Jacob; Gulati, Sandeep

1989-01-01

A fundamental issue which directly impacts the scalability of current theoretical neural network models to massively parallel embodiments, in both software as well as hardware, is the inherent and unavoidable concurrent asynchronicity of emerging fine-grained computational ensembles and the possible emergence of chaotic manifestations. Previous analyses attributed dynamical instability to the topology of the interconnection matrix, to parasitic components or to propagation delays. However, researchers have observed the existence of emergent computational chaos in a concurrently asynchronous framework, independent of the network topology. Researcher present a methodology enabling the effective asynchronous operation of large-scale neural networks. Necessary and sufficient conditions guaranteeing concurrent asynchronous convergence are established in terms of contracting operators. Lyapunov exponents are computed formally to characterize the underlying nonlinear dynamics. Simulation results are presented to illustrate network convergence to the correct results, even in the presence of large delays.

Precision bounds for gradient magnetometry with atomic ensembles

Science.gov (United States)

Apellaniz, Iagoba; Urizar-Lanz, Iñigo; Zimborás, Zoltán; Hyllus, Philipp; Tóth, Géza

2018-05-01

We study gradient magnetometry with an ensemble of atoms with arbitrary spin. We calculate precision bounds for estimating the gradient of the magnetic field based on the quantum Fisher information. For quantum states that are invariant under homogeneous magnetic fields, we need to measure a single observable to estimate the gradient. On the other hand, for states that are sensitive to homogeneous fields, a simultaneous measurement is needed, as the homogeneous field must also be estimated. We prove that for the cases studied in this paper, such a measurement is feasible. We present a method to calculate precision bounds for gradient estimation with a chain of atoms or with two spatially separated atomic ensembles. We also consider a single atomic ensemble with an arbitrary density profile, where the atoms cannot be addressed individually, and which is a very relevant case for experiments. Our model can take into account even correlations between particle positions. While in most of the discussion we consider an ensemble of localized particles that are classical with respect to their spatial degree of freedom, we also discuss the case of gradient metrology with a single Bose-Einstein condensate.

Particle swarm optimization-based automatic parameter selection for deep neural networks and its applications in large-scale and high-dimensional data.

Science.gov (United States)

Ye, Fei

2017-01-01

In this paper, we propose a new automatic hyperparameter selection approach for determining the optimal network configuration (network structure and hyperparameters) for deep neural networks using particle swarm optimization (PSO) in combination with a steepest gradient descent algorithm. In the proposed approach, network configurations were coded as a set of real-number m-dimensional vectors as the individuals of the PSO algorithm in the search procedure. During the search procedure, the PSO algorithm is employed to search for optimal network configurations via the particles moving in a finite search space, and the steepest gradient descent algorithm is used to train the DNN classifier with a few training epochs (to find a local optimal solution) during the population evaluation of PSO. After the optimization scheme, the steepest gradient descent algorithm is performed with more epochs and the final solutions (pbest and gbest) of the PSO algorithm to train a final ensemble model and individual DNN classifiers, respectively. The local search ability of the steepest gradient descent algorithm and the global search capabilities of the PSO algorithm are exploited to determine an optimal solution that is close to the global optimum. We constructed several experiments on hand-written characters and biological activity prediction datasets to show that the DNN classifiers trained by the network configurations expressed by the final solutions of the PSO algorithm, employed to construct an ensemble model and individual classifier, outperform the random approach in terms of the generalization performance. Therefore, the proposed approach can be regarded an alternative tool for automatic network structure and parameter selection for deep neural networks.

New technique for ensemble dressing combining Multimodel SuperEnsemble and precipitation PDF

Science.gov (United States)

Cane, D.; Milelli, M.

2009-09-01

The Multimodel SuperEnsemble technique (Krishnamurti et al., Science 285, 1548-1550, 1999) is a postprocessing method for the estimation of weather forecast parameters reducing direct model output errors. It differs from other ensemble analysis techniques by the use of an adequate weighting of the input forecast models to obtain a combined estimation of meteorological parameters. Weights are calculated by least-square minimization of the difference between the model and the observed field during a so-called training period. Although it can be applied successfully on the continuous parameters like temperature, humidity, wind speed and mean sea level pressure (Cane and Milelli, Meteorologische Zeitschrift, 15, 2, 2006), the Multimodel SuperEnsemble gives good results also when applied on the precipitation, a parameter quite difficult to handle with standard post-processing methods. Here we present our methodology for the Multimodel precipitation forecasts applied on a wide spectrum of results over Piemonte very dense non-GTS weather station network. We will focus particularly on an accurate statistical method for bias correction and on the ensemble dressing in agreement with the observed precipitation forecast-conditioned PDF. Acknowledgement: this work is supported by the Italian Civil Defence Department.

Multimodel hydrological ensemble forecasts for the Baskatong catchment in Canada using the TIGGE database.

Science.gov (United States)

Tito Arandia Martinez, Fabian

2014-05-01

Adequate uncertainty assessment is an important issue in hydrological modelling. An important issue for hydropower producers is to obtain ensemble forecasts which truly grasp the uncertainty linked to upcoming streamflows. If properly assessed, this uncertainty can lead to optimal reservoir management and energy production (ex. [1]). The meteorological inputs to the hydrological model accounts for an important part of the total uncertainty in streamflow forecasting. Since the creation of the THORPEX initiative and the TIGGE database, access to meteorological ensemble forecasts from nine agencies throughout the world have been made available. This allows for hydrological ensemble forecasts based on multiple meteorological ensemble forecasts. Consequently, both the uncertainty linked to the architecture of the meteorological model and the uncertainty linked to the initial condition of the atmosphere can be accounted for. The main objective of this work is to show that a weighted combination of meteorological ensemble forecasts based on different atmospheric models can lead to improved hydrological ensemble forecasts, for horizons from one to ten days. This experiment is performed for the Baskatong watershed, a head subcatchment of the Gatineau watershed in the province of Quebec, in Canada. Baskatong watershed is of great importance for hydro-power production, as it comprises the main reservoir for the Gatineau watershed, on which there are six hydropower plants managed by Hydro-Québec. Since the 70's, they have been using pseudo ensemble forecast based on deterministic meteorological forecasts to which variability derived from past forecasting errors is added. We use a combination of meteorological ensemble forecasts from different models (precipitation and temperature) as the main inputs for hydrological model HSAMI ([2]). The meteorological ensembles from eight of the nine agencies available through TIGGE are weighted according to their individual performance and

Enhanced memory performance thanks to neural network assortativity

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Franciscis, S. de; Johnson, S.; Torres, J. J.

2011-01-01

The behaviour of many complex dynamical systems has been found to depend crucially on the structure of the underlying networks of interactions. An intriguing feature of empirical networks is their assortativity--i.e., the extent to which the degrees of neighbouring nodes are correlated. However, until very recently it was difficult to take this property into account analytically, most work being exclusively numerical. We get round this problem by considering ensembles of equally correlated graphs and apply this novel technique to the case of attractor neural networks. Assortativity turns out to be a key feature for memory performance in these systems - so much so that for sufficiently correlated topologies the critical temperature diverges. We predict that artificial and biological neural systems could significantly enhance their robustness to noise by developing positive correlations.

Multivariate localization methods for ensemble Kalman filtering

KAUST Repository

Roh, S.; Jun, M.; Szunyogh, I.; Genton, Marc G.

2015-01-01

the Schur (element-wise) product of the ensemble-based sample covariance matrix and a correlation matrix whose entries are obtained by the discretization of a distance-dependent correlation function. While the proper definition of the localization function

Verification of Ensemble Forecasts for the New York City Operations Support Tool

Science.gov (United States)

Day, G.; Schaake, J. C.; Thiemann, M.; Draijer, S.; Wang, L.

2012-12-01

The New York City water supply system operated by the Department of Environmental Protection (DEP) serves nine million people. It covers 2,000 square miles of portions of the Catskill, Delaware, and Croton watersheds, and it includes nineteen reservoirs and three controlled lakes. DEP is developing an Operations Support Tool (OST) to support its water supply operations and planning activities. OST includes historical and real-time data, a model of the water supply system complete with operating rules, and lake water quality models developed to evaluate alternatives for managing turbidity in the New York City Catskill reservoirs. OST will enable DEP to manage turbidity in its unfiltered system while satisfying its primary objective of meeting the City's water supply needs, in addition to considering secondary objectives of maintaining ecological flows, supporting fishery and recreation releases, and mitigating downstream flood peaks. The current version of OST relies on statistical forecasts of flows in the system based on recent observed flows. To improve short-term decision making, plans are being made to transition to National Weather Service (NWS) ensemble forecasts based on hydrologic models that account for short-term weather forecast skill, longer-term climate information, as well as the hydrologic state of the watersheds and recent observed flows. To ensure that the ensemble forecasts are unbiased and that the ensemble spread reflects the actual uncertainty of the forecasts, a statistical model has been developed to post-process the NWS ensemble forecasts to account for hydrologic model error as well as any inherent bias and uncertainty in initial model states, meteorological data and forecasts. The post-processor is designed to produce adjusted ensemble forecasts that are consistent with the DEP historical flow sequences that were used to develop the system operating rules. A set of historical hindcasts that is representative of the real-time ensemble

Combining Rosetta with molecular dynamics (MD): A benchmark of the MD-based ensemble protein design.

Science.gov (United States)

Ludwiczak, Jan; Jarmula, Adam; Dunin-Horkawicz, Stanislaw

2018-07-01

Computational protein design is a set of procedures for computing amino acid sequences that will fold into a specified structure. Rosetta Design, a commonly used software for protein design, allows for the effective identification of sequences compatible with a given backbone structure, while molecular dynamics (MD) simulations can thoroughly sample near-native conformations. We benchmarked a procedure in which Rosetta design is started on MD-derived structural ensembles and showed that such a combined approach generates 20-30% more diverse sequences than currently available methods with only a slight increase in computation time. Importantly, the increase in diversity is achieved without a loss in the quality of the designed sequences assessed by their resemblance to natural sequences. We demonstrate that the MD-based procedure is also applicable to de novo design tasks started from backbone structures without any sequence information. In addition, we implemented a protocol that can be used to assess the stability of designed models and to select the best candidates for experimental validation. In sum our results demonstrate that the MD ensemble-based flexible backbone design can be a viable method for protein design, especially for tasks that require a large pool of diverse sequences. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Representing and Reasoning with the Internet of Things: a Modular Rule-Based Model for Ensembles of Context-Aware Smart Things

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

S. W. Loke

2016-03-01

Full Text Available Context-aware smart things are capable of computational behaviour based on sensing the physical world, inferring context from the sensed data, and acting on the sensed context. A collection of such things can form what we call a thing-ensemble, when they have the ability to communicate with one another (over a short range network such as Bluetooth, or the Internet, i.e. the Internet of Things (IoT concept, sense each other, and when each of them might play certain roles with respect to each other. Each smart thing in a thing-ensemble might have its own context-aware behaviours which when integrated with other smart things yield behaviours that are not straightforward to reason with. We present Sigma, a language of operators, inspired from modular logic programming, for specifying and reasoning with combined behaviours among smart things in a thing-ensemble. We show numerous examples of the use of Sigma for describing a range of behaviours over a diverse range of thing-ensembles, from sensor networks to smart digital frames, demonstrating the versatility of our approach. We contend that our operator approach abstracts away low-level communication and protocol details, and allows systems of context-aware things to be designed and built in a compositional and incremental manner.

Nonlinear Model Predictive Control Based on a Self-Organizing Recurrent Neural Network.

Science.gov (United States)

Han, Hong-Gui; Zhang, Lu; Hou, Ying; Qiao, Jun-Fei

2016-02-01

A nonlinear model predictive control (NMPC) scheme is developed in this paper based on a self-organizing recurrent radial basis function (SR-RBF) neural network, whose structure and parameters are adjusted concurrently in the training process. The proposed SR-RBF neural network is represented in a general nonlinear form for predicting the future dynamic behaviors of nonlinear systems. To improve the modeling accuracy, a spiking-based growing and pruning algorithm and an adaptive learning algorithm are developed to tune the structure and parameters of the SR-RBF neural network, respectively. Meanwhile, for the control problem, an improved gradient method is utilized for the solution of the optimization problem in NMPC. The stability of the resulting control system is proved based on the Lyapunov stability theory. Finally, the proposed SR-RBF neural network-based NMPC (SR-RBF-NMPC) is used to control the dissolved oxygen (DO) concentration in a wastewater treatment process (WWTP). Comparisons with other existing methods demonstrate that the SR-RBF-NMPC can achieve a considerably better model fitting for WWTP and a better control performance for DO concentration.

Temporal Correlations and Neural Spike Train Entropy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Schultz, Simon R.; Panzeri, Stefano

2001-01-01

Sampling considerations limit the experimental conditions under which information theoretic analyses of neurophysiological data yield reliable results. We develop a procedure for computing the full temporal entropy and information of ensembles of neural spike trains, which performs reliably for limited samples of data. This approach also yields insight to the role of correlations between spikes in temporal coding mechanisms. The method, when applied to recordings from complex cells of the monkey primary visual cortex, results in lower rms error information estimates in comparison to a 'brute force' approach

A Theoretical Analysis of Why Hybrid Ensembles Work

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Kuo-Wei Hsu

2017-01-01

Full Text Available Inspired by the group decision making process, ensembles or combinations of classifiers have been found favorable in a wide variety of application domains. Some researchers propose to use the mixture of two different types of classification algorithms to create a hybrid ensemble. Why does such an ensemble work? The question remains. Following the concept of diversity, which is one of the fundamental elements of the success of ensembles, we conduct a theoretical analysis of why hybrid ensembles work, connecting using different algorithms to accuracy gain. We also conduct experiments on classification performance of hybrid ensembles of classifiers created by decision tree and naïve Bayes classification algorithms, each of which is a top data mining algorithm and often used to create non-hybrid ensembles. Therefore, through this paper, we provide a complement to the theoretical foundation of creating and using hybrid ensembles.

The Energy Coding of a Structural Neural Network Based on the Hodgkin-Huxley Model.

Science.gov (United States)

Zhu, Zhenyu; Wang, Rubin; Zhu, Fengyun

2018-01-01

Based on the Hodgkin-Huxley model, the present study established a fully connected structural neural network to simulate the neural activity and energy consumption of the network by neural energy coding theory. The numerical simulation result showed that the periodicity of the network energy distribution was positively correlated to the number of neurons and coupling strength, but negatively correlated to signal transmitting delay. Moreover, a relationship was established between the energy distribution feature and the synchronous oscillation of the neural network, which showed that when the proportion of negative energy in power consumption curve was high, the synchronous oscillation of the neural network was apparent. In addition, comparison with the simulation result of structural neural network based on the Wang-Zhang biophysical model of neurons showed that both models were essentially consistent.

Ensemble Forecasts with Useful Skill-Spread Relationships for African meningitis and Asia Streamflow Forecasting

Science.gov (United States)

Hopson, T. M.

2014-12-01

One potential benefit of an ensemble prediction system (EPS) is its capacity to forecast its own forecast error through the ensemble spread-error relationship. In practice, an EPS is often quite limited in its ability to represent the variable expectation of forecast error through the variable dispersion of the ensemble, and perhaps more fundamentally, in its ability to provide enough variability in the ensembles dispersion to make the skill-spread relationship even potentially useful (irrespective of whether the EPS is well-calibrated or not). In this paper we examine the ensemble skill-spread relationship of an ensemble constructed from the TIGGE (THORPEX Interactive Grand Global Ensemble) dataset of global forecasts and a combination of multi-model and post-processing approaches. Both of the multi-model and post-processing techniques are based on quantile regression (QR) under a step-wise forward selection framework leading to ensemble forecasts with both good reliability and sharpness. The methodology utilizes the ensemble's ability to self-diagnose forecast instability to produce calibrated forecasts with informative skill-spread relationships. A context for these concepts is provided by assessing the constructed ensemble in forecasting district-level humidity impacting the incidence of meningitis in the meningitis belt of Africa, and in forecasting flooding events in the Brahmaputra and Ganges basins of South Asia.

Effect of land model ensemble versus coupled model ensemble on the simulation of precipitation climatology and variability

Science.gov (United States)

Wei, Jiangfeng; Dirmeyer, Paul A.; Yang, Zong-Liang; Chen, Haishan

2017-10-01

Through a series of model simulations with an atmospheric general circulation model coupled to three different land surface models, this study investigates the impacts of land model ensembles and coupled model ensemble on precipitation simulation. It is found that coupling an ensemble of land models to an atmospheric model has a very minor impact on the improvement of precipitation climatology and variability, but a simple ensemble average of the precipitation from three individually coupled land-atmosphere models produces better results, especially for precipitation variability. The generally weak impact of land processes on precipitation should be the main reason that the land model ensembles do not improve precipitation simulation. However, if there are big biases in the land surface model or land surface data set, correcting them could improve the simulated climate, especially for well-constrained regional climate simulations.

ENSEMBLE methods to reconcile disparate national long range dispersion forecasts

OpenAIRE

Mikkelsen, Torben; Galmarini, S.; Bianconi, R.; French, S.

2003-01-01

ENSEMBLE is a web-based decision support system for real-time exchange and evaluation of national long-range dispersion forecasts of nuclear releases with cross-boundary consequences. The system is developed with the purpose to reconcile among disparatenational forecasts for long-range dispersion. ENSEMBLE addresses the problem of achieving a common coherent strategy across European national emergency management when national long-range dispersion forecasts differ from one another during an a...

Radioactivity nuclide identification based on BP and LM algorithm neural network

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wang Jihong; Sun Jian; Wang Lianghou

2012-01-01

The paper provides the method which can identify radioactive nuclide based on the BP and LM algorithm neural network. Then, this paper compares the above-mentioned method with FR algorithm. Through the result of the Matlab simulation, the method of radioactivity nuclide identification based on the BP and LM algorithm neural network is superior to the FR algorithm. With the better effect and the higher accuracy, it will be the best choice. (authors)

A multi-scale ensemble-based framework for forecasting compound coastal-riverine flooding: The Hackensack-Passaic watershed and Newark Bay

Science.gov (United States)

Saleh, F.; Ramaswamy, V.; Wang, Y.; Georgas, N.; Blumberg, A.; Pullen, J.

2017-12-01

Estuarine regions can experience compound impacts from coastal storm surge and riverine flooding. The challenges in forecasting flooding in such areas are multi-faceted due to uncertainties associated with meteorological drivers and interactions between hydrological and coastal processes. The objective of this work is to evaluate how uncertainties from meteorological predictions propagate through an ensemble-based flood prediction framework and translate into uncertainties in simulated inundation extents. A multi-scale framework, consisting of hydrologic, coastal and hydrodynamic models, was used to simulate two extreme flood events at the confluence of the Passaic and Hackensack rivers and Newark Bay. The events were Hurricane Irene (2011), a combination of inland flooding and coastal storm surge, and Hurricane Sandy (2012) where coastal storm surge was the dominant component. The hydrodynamic component of the framework was first forced with measured streamflow and ocean water level data to establish baseline inundation extents with the best available forcing data. The coastal and hydrologic models were then forced with meteorological predictions from 21 ensemble members of the Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) to retrospectively represent potential future conditions up to 96 hours prior to the events. Inundation extents produced by the hydrodynamic model, forced with the 95th percentile of the ensemble-based coastal and hydrologic boundary conditions, were in good agreement with baseline conditions for both events. The USGS reanalysis of Hurricane Sandy inundation extents was encapsulated between the 50th and 95th percentile of the forecasted inundation extents, and that of Hurricane Irene was similar but with caveats associated with data availability and reliability. This work highlights the importance of accounting for meteorological uncertainty to represent a range of possible future inundation extents at high resolution (∼m).

The image recognition based on neural network and Bayesian decision

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Chugege

2018-04-01

The artificial neural network began in 1940, which is an important part of artificial intelligence. At present, it has become a hot topic in the fields of neuroscience, computer science, brain science, mathematics, and psychology. Thomas Bayes firstly reported the Bayesian theory in 1763. After the development in the twentieth century, it has been widespread in all areas of statistics. In recent years, due to the solution of the problem of high-dimensional integral calculation, Bayesian Statistics has been improved theoretically, which solved many problems that cannot be solved by classical statistics and is also applied to the interdisciplinary fields. In this paper, the related concepts and principles of the artificial neural network are introduced. It also summarizes the basic content and principle of Bayesian Statistics, and combines the artificial neural network technology and Bayesian decision theory and implement them in all aspects of image recognition, such as enhanced face detection method based on neural network and Bayesian decision, as well as the image classification based on the Bayesian decision. It can be seen that the combination of artificial intelligence and statistical algorithms has always been the hot research topic.

Reacting to different types of concept drift: the Accuracy Updated Ensemble algorithm.

Science.gov (United States)

Brzezinski, Dariusz; Stefanowski, Jerzy

2014-01-01

Data stream mining has been receiving increased attention due to its presence in a wide range of applications, such as sensor networks, banking, and telecommunication. One of the most important challenges in learning from data streams is reacting to concept drift, i.e., unforeseen changes of the stream's underlying data distribution. Several classification algorithms that cope with concept drift have been put forward, however, most of them specialize in one type of change. In this paper, we propose a new data stream classifier, called the Accuracy Updated Ensemble (AUE2), which aims at reacting equally well to different types of drift. AUE2 combines accuracy-based weighting mechanisms known from block-based ensembles with the incremental nature of Hoeffding Trees. The proposed algorithm is experimentally compared with 11 state-of-the-art stream methods, including single classifiers, block-based and online ensembles, and hybrid approaches in different drift scenarios. Out of all the compared algorithms, AUE2 provided best average classification accuracy while proving to be less memory consuming than other ensemble approaches. Experimental results show that AUE2 can be considered suitable for scenarios, involving many types of drift as well as static environments.

Assessing an ensemble Kalman filter inference of Manning’s n coefficient of an idealized tidal inlet against a polynomial chaos-based MCMC

KAUST Repository

Siripatana, Adil; Mayo, Talea; Sraj, Ihab; Knio, Omar; Dawson, Clint; Le Maitre, Olivier; Hoteit, Ibrahim

2017-01-01

an ensemble Kalman-based data assimilation method for parameter estimation of a coastal ocean model against an MCMC polynomial chaos (PC)-based scheme. We focus on quantifying the uncertainties of a coastal ocean ADvanced CIRCulation (ADCIRC) model

A fast identification algorithm for Box-Cox transformation based radial basis function neural network.

Science.gov (United States)

Hong, Xia

2006-07-01

In this letter, a Box-Cox transformation-based radial basis function (RBF) neural network is introduced using the RBF neural network to represent the transformed system output. Initially a fixed and moderate sized RBF model base is derived based on a rank revealing orthogonal matrix triangularization (QR decomposition). Then a new fast identification algorithm is introduced using Gauss-Newton algorithm to derive the required Box-Cox transformation, based on a maximum likelihood estimator. The main contribution of this letter is to explore the special structure of the proposed RBF neural network for computational efficiency by utilizing the inverse of matrix block decomposition lemma. Finally, the Box-Cox transformation-based RBF neural network, with good generalization and sparsity, is identified based on the derived optimal Box-Cox transformation and a D-optimality-based orthogonal forward regression algorithm. The proposed algorithm and its efficacy are demonstrated with an illustrative example in comparison with support vector machine regression.

Pre- and post-processing of hydro-meteorological ensembles for the Norwegian flood forecasting system in 145 basins.

Science.gov (United States)

Jahr Hegdahl, Trine; Steinsland, Ingelin; Merete Tallaksen, Lena; Engeland, Kolbjørn

2016-04-01

Probabilistic flood forecasting has an added value for decision making. The Norwegian flood forecasting service is based on a flood forecasting model that run for 145 basins. Covering all of Norway the basins differ in both size and hydrological regime. Currently the flood forecasting is based on deterministic meteorological forecasts, and an auto-regressive procedure is used to achieve probabilistic forecasts. An alternative approach is to use meteorological and hydrological ensemble forecasts to quantify the uncertainty in forecasted streamflow. The hydrological ensembles are based on forcing a hydrological model with meteorological ensemble forecasts of precipitation and temperature. However, the ensembles of precipitation are often biased and the spread is too small, especially for the shortest lead times, i.e. they are not calibrated. These properties will, to some extent, propagate to hydrological ensembles, that most likely will be uncalibrated as well. Pre- and post-processing methods are commonly used to obtain calibrated meteorological and hydrological ensembles respectively. Quantitative studies showing the effect of the combined processing of the meteorological (pre-processing) and the hydrological (post-processing) ensembles are however few. The aim of this study is to evaluate the influence of pre- and post-processing on the skill of streamflow predictions, and we will especially investigate if the forecasting skill depends on lead-time, basin size and hydrological regime. This aim is achieved by applying the 51 medium-range ensemble forecast of precipitation and temperature provided by the European Center of Medium-Range Weather Forecast (ECMWF). These ensembles are used as input to the operational Norwegian flood forecasting model, both raw and pre-processed. Precipitation ensembles are calibrated using a zero-adjusted gamma distribution. Temperature ensembles are calibrated using a Gaussian distribution and altitude corrected by a constant gradient

Clustered iterative stochastic ensemble method for multi-modal calibration of subsurface flow models

KAUST Repository

Elsheikh, Ahmed H.; Wheeler, Mary Fanett; Hoteit, Ibrahim

2013-01-01

estimation. ISEM is augmented with a clustering step based on k-means algorithm to form sub-ensembles. These sub-ensembles are used to explore different parts of the search space. Clusters are updated at regular intervals of the algorithm to allow merging

New concept of statistical ensembles

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gorenstein, M.I.

2009-01-01

An extension of the standard concept of the statistical ensembles is suggested. Namely, the statistical ensembles with extensive quantities fluctuating according to an externally given distribution is introduced. Applications in the statistical models of multiple hadron production in high energy physics are discussed.

Improving sub-pixel imperviousness change prediction by ensembling heterogeneous non-linear regression models

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Drzewiecki Wojciech

2016-12-01

Full Text Available In this work nine non-linear regression models were compared for sub-pixel impervious surface area mapping from Landsat images. The comparison was done in three study areas both for accuracy of imperviousness coverage evaluation in individual points in time and accuracy of imperviousness change assessment. The performance of individual machine learning algorithms (Cubist, Random Forest, stochastic gradient boosting of regression trees, k-nearest neighbors regression, random k-nearest neighbors regression, Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines, averaged neural networks, and support vector machines with polynomial and radial kernels was also compared with the performance of heterogeneous model ensembles constructed from the best models trained using particular techniques.

The Ensembl genome database project.

Science.gov (United States)

Hubbard, T; Barker, D; Birney, E; Cameron, G; Chen, Y; Clark, L; Cox, T; Cuff, J; Curwen, V; Down, T; Durbin, R; Eyras, E; Gilbert, J; Hammond, M; Huminiecki, L; Kasprzyk, A; Lehvaslaiho, H; Lijnzaad, P; Melsopp, C; Mongin, E; Pettett, R; Pocock, M; Potter, S; Rust, A; Schmidt, E; Searle, S; Slater, G; Smith, J; Spooner, W; Stabenau, A; Stalker, J; Stupka, E; Ureta-Vidal, A; Vastrik, I; Clamp, M

2002-01-01

The Ensembl (http://www.ensembl.org/) database project provides a bioinformatics framework to organise biology around the sequences of large genomes. It is a comprehensive source of stable automatic annotation of the human genome sequence, with confirmed gene predictions that have been integrated with external data sources, and is available as either an interactive web site or as flat files. It is also an open source software engineering project to develop a portable system able to handle very large genomes and associated requirements from sequence analysis to data storage and visualisation. The Ensembl site is one of the leading sources of human genome sequence annotation and provided much of the analysis for publication by the international human genome project of the draft genome. The Ensembl system is being installed around the world in both companies and academic sites on machines ranging from supercomputers to laptops.

An application of ensemble/multi model approach for wind power production forecast.

Science.gov (United States)

Alessandrini, S.; Decimi, G.; Hagedorn, R.; Sperati, S.

2010-09-01

The wind power forecast of the 3 days ahead period are becoming always more useful and important in reducing the problem of grid integration and energy price trading due to the increasing wind power penetration. Therefore it's clear that the accuracy of this forecast is one of the most important requirements for a successful application. The wind power forecast is based on a mesoscale meteorological models that provides the 3 days ahead wind data. A Model Output Statistic correction is then performed to reduce systematic error caused, for instance, by a wrong representation of surface roughness or topography in the meteorological models. The corrected wind data are then used as input in the wind farm power curve to obtain the power forecast. These computations require historical time series of wind measured data (by an anemometer located in the wind farm or on the nacelle) and power data in order to be able to perform the statistical analysis on the past. For this purpose a Neural Network (NN) is trained on the past data and then applied in the forecast task. Considering that the anemometer measurements are not always available in a wind farm a different approach has also been adopted. A training of the NN to link directly the forecasted meteorological data and the power data has also been performed. The normalized RMSE forecast error seems to be lower in most cases by following the second approach. We have examined two wind farms, one located in Denmark on flat terrain and one located in a mountain area in the south of Italy (Sicily). In both cases we compare the performances of a prediction based on meteorological data coming from a single model with those obtained by using two or more models (RAMS, ECMWF deterministic, LAMI, HIRLAM). It is shown that the multi models approach reduces the day-ahead normalized RMSE forecast error of at least 1% compared to the singles models approach. Moreover the use of a deterministic global model, (e.g. ECMWF deterministic

Global exponential stability of inertial memristor-based neural networks with time-varying delays and impulses.

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Wei; Huang, Tingwen; He, Xing; Li, Chuandong

2017-11-01

In this study, we investigate the global exponential stability of inertial memristor-based neural networks with impulses and time-varying delays. We construct inertial memristor-based neural networks based on the characteristics of the inertial neural networks and memristor. Impulses with and without delays are considered when modeling the inertial neural networks simultaneously, which are of great practical significance in the current study. Some sufficient conditions are derived under the framework of the Lyapunov stability method, as well as an extended Halanay differential inequality and a new delay impulsive differential inequality, which depend on impulses with and without delays, in order to guarantee the global exponential stability of the inertial memristor-based neural networks. Finally, two numerical examples are provided to illustrate the efficiency of the proposed methods. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Error Concealment using Neural Networks for Block-Based Image Coding

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

M. Mokos

2006-06-01

Full Text Available In this paper, a novel adaptive error concealment (EC algorithm, which lowers the requirements for channel coding, is proposed. It conceals errors in block-based image coding systems by using neural network. In this proposed algorithm, only the intra-frame information is used for reconstruction of the image with separated damaged blocks. The information of pixels surrounding a damaged block is used to recover the errors using the neural network models. Computer simulation results show that the visual quality and the MSE evaluation of a reconstructed image are significantly improved using the proposed EC algorithm. We propose also a simple non-neural approach for comparison.

Automatic target recognition using a feature-based optical neural network

Science.gov (United States)

Chao, Tien-Hsin

1992-01-01

An optical neural network based upon the Neocognitron paradigm (K. Fukushima et al. 1983) is introduced. A novel aspect of the architectural design is shift-invariant multichannel Fourier optical correlation within each processing layer. Multilayer processing is achieved by iteratively feeding back the output of the feature correlator to the input spatial light modulator and updating the Fourier filters. By training the neural net with characteristic features extracted from the target images, successful pattern recognition with intra-class fault tolerance and inter-class discrimination is achieved. A detailed system description is provided. Experimental demonstration of a two-layer neural network for space objects discrimination is also presented.